Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
The cirrus clouds are slowly pulling out of the area, and if some of the low level clouds begin to break up we could see quickly developing fog, especially in locations that got heavy rainfall from the storms on Wednesday.
- Frost/freezing temperatures possible later this week into the weekend. High pressure is forecast to quickly move across the area tonight. Low temperatures on Thursday morning will range from the mid 40s north of Interstate 80 to the lower 50s in far northeast Missouri. This seems most likely if storms develop near the warm front in far northern Missouri or precipitation will be forced by an frontogenetical band associated with another cold front that will move across the area Thursday morning. High temperatures on Thursday will be cooler and range be in the mid 50s. Thursday night through this weekend: Deepening trough in the Great Lakes region will send rather chilly temperatures into our forecast area, due to a northwest flow aloft. The NBM continues to show a 50-80 percent probability of freezing temperatures, especially in our northern counties.
322 AM EDT Thu Apr 18 2024 High pressure will continue to ridge across the area through the weekend as a cold front settles just to the north of the area. Conditions will remain fairly dry as temperatures gradually increase into the lower to mid 90s inland, with lows in the 60s.
A cold front will continue to move through the area, dropping temperatures in its wake. Cooler overnight lows are expected across the whole area.
1259 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024 Mid and high clouds are a plenty this evening as the subtropical jet persists ahead of deep troughing aloft nearing Srn Baja, with these elevated cigs quite thick on the evening satellite imagery from Cntrl/S TX E along the Gulf Coast states.
305 AM EDT Thu Apr 18 2024 Showers and thunderstorms possible overnight with a weak cold front.
- Warmer than average. High pressure will continue to dominate in the lower levels, providing a steady southeast onshore flow. At 500 mb, the pattern will be mostly zonal, but with a modest southwest flow ahead of a short wave trough farther west. Tonight will remain mostly cloudy with low temperatures in the lower to mid 70s. The severe weather threat for Friday will lie to out north along the slowly approaching cold front.
Expect seasonably warm highs in the low-mid 80s. /DC/ As day breaks on Friday, a cold front will be in the process of dropping southeast into and through the CWA.
A much stronger front will cross our area Friday bringing some showers and storms, then cooler weather arrives for the weekend. Winds will gust up to 25 mph along the higher elevations today. Temperatures are expected to remain above normal with lows ranging from the lower 50s to the lower 60s, but highs should climb into the mid/upper 70s for the mountains and low/mid 80s for the Piedmont.
Some of the high resolution guidance is keying in on the fog potential across inland areas through the pre-dawn hours this morning and area-wide tonight into Friday morning.
512 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024 - Strong north winds developing behind a cold front are expected to produce gusts upward of 50-55 mph through mid-morning.
and Friday A low pressure system over the southern Plains will track northeast towards central Illinois today. As the low moves south of the area, some mid level frontogenesis will combine with a 100-120 knot upper level jet to bring showers to the region throughout the day. The rain showers will end from west to east this evening as the low tracks northeast towards southern Ontario tonight, with dry weather expected during the overnight hours. Highs on Friday are expected to range from the lower 40s across the north, to the lower 50s across east- central Wisconsin.
445 AM PDT Thu Apr 18 2024 Warm temps persist into the weekend with a slight cool off Friday as a weak trough pushes through. (Today and tonight) The upper ridge now across the region will begin flattening today in response to a weak disturbance upstream. Therefore coastal areas should be a few degrees cooler, while warm temperatures prevail inland. Look for highs ranging from the lower to mid 60s along the coast tho the upper 70s to around 80 in the warmer inland valleys.
643 AM EDT Thu Apr 18 2024 (Today through Friday) High pressure remains at both the surface and aloft to close out the work week. With the high shifting eastward, an easterly to southeasterly wind flow pattern will provide for increasing tropical moisture and warmer air advecting into the region.
522 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024 (Today through Friday Night) H500 cyclone making slow progress east along the US/CA border will contribute to enhanced W/SW flow across the middle of the country the next few days. At the sfc, an area of low pressure and an associated cold front extending from the KS/OK border southwestward this morning will shift eastward throughout the day. The cold front will begin to progress across the state from NW to SE by late afternoon/early evening. Much cooler temperatures are expected across the state on Friday in the wake of the cold front.
707 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024 - High temperatures will again reach the lower to middle 80s this afternoon. The low will lift the boundary currently across our region north as a warm front today. Breezy south winds south of the front will help temperatures again reach the lower to middle 80s this afternoon, with dew points climbing into the lower to middle 60s. As the low moves into Illinois by this evening, the trailing cold front will move just west of our area. The RAP and GFS show MU CAPE values of 2000-2500 J/kg and surface LIs of -4 to -8 across southeast Missouri this afternoon, as well as along the cold front this evening. A significant cool down will follow the cold front.
Daily afternoon high temperatures will continue to top out in the low to mid 90s through the end of the week.
A much stronger front will cross our area Friday bringing some showers and storms, then cooler weather arrives for the weekend. Dewpoints will fall into the mid 30s to the low 40s by this afternoon, which will push relative humidities into the 20 to 25 percent range for most locations.
(Today) A cold front will sweep rapidly southeast across the area from later this morning through the afternoon. A broken line of storms is likely to form along the advancing cold front by mid afternoon before exiting the area early this evening.
302 AM PDT Thu Apr 18 2024 A weak low pressure system moving inland through southern California will bring cooling through Friday, gusty southwest to west winds for the mountains and deserts during the afternoons and nights with the stronger gusts to 50 mph, and deepening of the marine layer with night and morning coastal low clouds extending inland across much of the valleys by Friday night.
High pressure is the dominant feature and will continue to be through the remainder of the workweek.
Another round of showers and storms Friday morning with a cold front, cooler this weekend. A weak cold front will continue to push southward through the area early this morning, producing some showers and thunderstorms.
606 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024 (Today and tonight) Main story today will continue to be the arrival of the strong cold front this afternoon and evening. Latest model runs from the high res models continue to speed up the front some across the Big Country, with the front arriving along the I-20 corridor before max heating. Thus, have stayed on the cooler side of guidance across the Big Country. Cold front continues south overnight and allows the cooler air mass to filter into the area.
632 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024 (Today and tonight) Main focus for today is on a surface cold front which as of 2 am was located along a line from near Trinidad, CO to Garden City, KS. This front will bring much cooler temperatures to the area as well as breezy northerly winds.
614 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024 - Ongoing rain and wintry precipitation ends from west to east this morning, with dry and cooler conditions this afternoon.
Overnight low temperatures tonight are forecast to fall into the lower 50s north of the front and mid 60s south.
While the low-level atmosphere remains quite dry and stable, mid- to-upper level moisture has returned. High pressure will continue to ridge across the area through the weekend as a cold front settles just to the north of the area. Conditions will remain fairly dry as temperatures gradually increase into the lower to mid 90s inland, with lows in the 60s.
535 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024 (Today) A cold front will sweep rapidly southeast across the area from later this morning through the afternoon. A broken line of storms is likely to form along the advancing cold front by mid afternoon before exiting the area early this evening.
- Cooler temperatures continue into the weekend with highs only reaching the upper 50s and low 60s.
We remain in a broad warm sectored airmass, and the combination of southerly flow and sunshine this afternoon will help temperatures rise into the low to mid 80s.
While a few showers are possible out onto the lower elevations generally west of Billings, the greatest shower coverage will be over the mountains and adjacent foothills (20-40% chance).
1234 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024 - Ongoing rain and wintry precipitation ends from west to east this morning, with dry and cooler conditions this afternoon.
Another round of showers and storms Friday with a cold front. Cooler and drier this weekend. Overall, dry today, with high pressure surface and aloft temporarily in control. Showers ad storms will return early Friday with the approach of a low and associated cold front. Upper level low pressure transiting the Upper Great Lakes drags a cold front through the region Friday morning through early afternoon.
- Much cooler Friday through the weekend, as highs/lows in the 80s/60s transition to 60s/40s.
High pressure remains in control of the persistent dry weather across the forecast area, but the exception is radar currently showing a couple of light pop-up showers to the south of the Lower Keys. High pressure continues to dominate the weather pattern in the area, allowing for gentle to moderate easterly to southeasterly breezes to prevail through the weekend.
As the high shifts eastward, the winds will veer and allow for a more distinct southeastward wind flow.
124 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024 (Today and tonight) Main story today will continue to be the arrival of the strong cold front this afternoon and evening. Latest model runs from the high res models continue to speed up the front some across the Big Country, with the front arriving along the I-20 corridor before max heating. Thus, have stayed on the cooler side of guidance across the Big Country. Cold front continues south overnight and allows the cooler air mass to filter into the area.
430 PM EDT Thu Apr 18 2024 High pressure crosses the region tonight into Friday.
Southwesterly wind gusts up to 25 mph will be possible across the higher terrain near the AZ/UT border this afternoon. A weak trough off the California coast will continue to stream high clouds over northern Arizona through tonight.
(Rest of today through Friday) We started off cloudy this morning, but the clouds have been breaking up and we expect temps to take off into the low to mid 80s this afternoon. Later this evening, another batch of thunderstorms in the form of a weakening QLCS will come from the west ahead of a cold front. We will be left with mostly cloudy and cooler conditions as a north breeze drops back to normal or a little cooler than normal. (Friday Night through next Thursday) Through the weekend, surface winds will continue to come from the north as the center of cool high pressure slides southward across the plains. Weekend temps will be a little cooler than normal.
A warming trend is expected over the weekend as weak ridging aloft builds in. A weak trough will remain over California through Friday maintaining cooler temperatures and a deepening marine layer across coast and valleys during the night and morning hours.
216 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024 - Strong north winds developing behind a cold front are expected to produce gusts upward of 50-55 mph through mid-morning.
839 AM PDT Thu Apr 18 2024 A weak low pressure system moving inland through southern California will bring cooling through Friday, gusty southwest to west winds for the mountains and deserts during the afternoons and nights with the stronger gusts to 50 mph, and deepening of the marine layer with night and morning coastal low clouds extending inland across much of the valleys by Friday night.
(This evening through Friday) Cold front continues to move southward across the area this afternoon. Much cooler tonight behind the front, with lows dipping into the upper 40s north of I-20 and the 50s across most of the rest of west central Texas. Friday will be much cooler compared to today, with highs in the 60s and 70s.
Going into the early morning a cold front will be in the process of dropping into the CWA allowing rain chances in the north to persist through the afternoon as the boundary moves off to our east.
Another round of showers and storms Friday with a cold front. Cooler and drier this weekend. Overall, dry today, with high pressure surface and aloft temporarily in control. Showers ad storms will return early Friday with the approach of a low and associated cold front.
(Tonight) Strong cold front currently passing through NE OK will continue steady progress eastward and clear western AR and far SE OK by mid evening. Scattered storms will remain possible along the boundary before it clears the forecast area with breezy northerly winds and noticeably cooler temperatures overnight.
(This evening through Friday night) A fairly broad upper level trough pushing south out of Canada will continue to expand across the High Plains to upper Mississippi River Valley the rest of this afternoon and evening. A cold front associated with this trough is moving southeast through OK, TX, and AR.
209 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024 - Frost/Freeze tonight as temperatures fall into the low 30s. The main concern over the next 72 hours will be falling temperatures overnight which could lead to frost/freeze concerns, as our abnormal winter with warmer conditions alongside the rain we received earlier in the week has led to some susceptible vegetation.
Additional storms are likely in the morning near sunrise as the main cold front tied to the aforementioned low nears the area. With southerly flow and dense cloud cover, overnight lows will be quite warm only falling to the low to mid 60s.
Strong cold front remains across NC OK and NW TX attm and will continue to make steady progress south and east this afternoon. Overnight low temperatures tonight are forecast to fall into the lower 50s north of the front and mid 60s south.
Highest probabilities (60-90%) for subfreezing temperatures remain west of the Mississippi River. - Blustery to end the week, with a cooler and drier weekend ahead. A dry, but much cooler night follows with lows dropping into the upper 20s to mid 30s across the area. With the highest probabilities (60-90%) for subfreezing temperatures remaining west of the Mississippi River, a freeze warning was issued for those locations. A frost headline remains for those counties along the river with valleys likely remaining a tad bit warmer. An upper level low is forecast to track eastward across Canada through the day on Friday, with a few weak waves dropping down through the region.
(This afternoon through Friday) A broad area of low-level ridging is centered over the Central and Eastern Gulf of Mexico while lower amplitude mid-level ridging is also present over the Eastern CONUS, producing westerly flow aloft. Convection along the southern sections of the front will really struggle as it moves further into an unfavorable environment dominated by the Gulf ridge and lacking in deep moisture. As temperatures warm into the lower to mid 80s, some isolated to scattered thunderstorms will develop.
255 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024 - Winds subside this evening with cooler temperatures lingering through this weekend.
Valleys will remain clear with temperatures across the region about 5 degrees warmer than yesterday.
356 PM EDT Thu Apr 18 2024 - Rain tonight as a cold front tracks through the region. - Showers exit Friday morning with drier and cooler weather heading into the weekend. Low and mid level ridging entrenched locally late this afternoon, immediately downstream of a broadening corridor of height falls emanating off a closed mid level circulation pivoting into western Ontario.
- Freezing temperatures possible tonight resulting in Frost Advisories and Freeze Warnings for the state.
Another round of showers and storms Friday with a cold front. Cooler this weekend. Overall, dry today, with high pressure surface and aloft temporarily in control. Showers ad storms will return early Friday with the approach of a low and associated cold front. Upper level low pressure transiting the Upper Great Lakes drags a cold front through the region Friday morning through early afternoon. Mainly dry and cooler conditions are expected through the weekend in the wake of cold frontal passage with slightly below normal temperatures.
A cold front over the Ohio Valley will move east, crossing the Mid-Atlantic region Friday.
313 PM EDT Thu Apr 18 2024 A low pressure system moves through the region, bringing showers and thunderstorms during the overnight hours into Friday.
307 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024 - Sub-freezing temperatures expected to return to portions of the forecast area tonight, mainly north of the tri-cities.
(The rest of today ) A strong cold front. With this in mind, have kept PoPs in the high-end chance/ low-end likely category this afternoon for much of E OK & NW AR.
------------------------------------------------------------------ The progression of ridging over western Ohio into western PA this afternoon/evening will support dry weather today and clearing gradually throughout the day. Limited cooling is likely as thicker cirrus limits nocturnal radiational cooling, keeping low temperature above normal and likely the highest reading for the upcoming week. KEY MESSAGES: - Showers and low probability thunderstorms are expected ahead of a cold front Friday.
1233 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024 (Today through Friday Night) H500 cyclone making slow progress east along the US/CA border will contribute to enhanced W/SW flow across the middle of the country the next few days. At the sfc, an area of low pressure and an associated cold front extending from the KS/OK border southwestward this morning will shift eastward throughout the day. The cold front will begin to progress across the state from NW to SE by late afternoon/early evening. Much cooler temperatures are expected across the state on Friday in the wake of the cold front.
330 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024 - Cool with temperatures well below normal through the first part of the weekend, then warmer.
1240 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024 (Today and tonight) Main focus for today is on a surface cold front which as of 2 am was located along a line from near Trinidad, CO to Garden City, KS. This front will bring much cooler temperatures to the area as well as breezy northerly winds.
The low that never ends is still spinning Canada. As a result, expect more widespread snow showers tomorrow afternoon, with visibility reductions becoming expected thanks to cooler 925mb temperatures. Freezing temperatures will return Friday night as the low finally begins to kick out of the region and cold air surges in.
Warm temps persist into the weekend with a slight cool off Friday as a weak trough pushes through. (Today and tonight) The upper ridge now across the region will begin flattening today in response to a weak disturbance upstream. Therefore coastal areas should be a few degrees cooler, while warm temperatures prevail inland. Look for highs ranging from the lower to mid 60s along the coast tho the upper 70s to around 80 in the warmer inland valleys.
(This evening through Friday) As of 2:30 PM, the cold front extended from Holdenville to Ardmore and breezy north winds with gusts of 35 to 45 mph have been observed behind the boundary. A cooler airmass has entered much of Oklahoma with coolest temperatures currently in the mid 50's across parts of northern and west-central Oklahoma. Winds gradually decrease overnight, and though winds will be light by dawn on Friday, wind chills could drop into the low 30's.
1237 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024 (The rest of today ) A strong cold front. With this in mind, have kept PoPs in the high-end chance/ low-end likely category this afternoon for much of E OK & NW AR.
1216 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024 (Rest of today through Friday) We started off cloudy this morning, but the clouds have been breaking up and we expect temps to take off into the low to mid 80s this afternoon. Later this evening, another batch of thunderstorms in the form of a weakening QLCS will come from the west ahead of a cold front. We will be left with mostly cloudy and cooler conditions as a north breeze drops temps back to normal or a little cooler than normal. (Friday Night through next Thursday) Through the weekend, surface winds will continue to come from the north as the center of cool high pressure slides southward across the plains. Weekend temps will be a little cooler than normal.
Inland temperatures will be in the upper 80s to low 90s with coastal temperatures staying slightly cooler due to the sea breeze.
Quite a few clouds have also formed over the higher terrain thanks to favorable wind flow. Can't find any reports of precip hitting the ground as subcloud layers remain on the dry side but wouldn't be surprised for the higher elevations to see some sort of precip. Some mid to high level clouds will move in from the southwest and will keep overnight lows on the warmer side of things. A shallow trough will start moving across California into Nevada with southwesterly flow remaining over our CWA.
239 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024 - Windy again on Friday, continued cooler than normal.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue over the Midsouth tonight, in advance of an upper level trough lifting through the mid-Mississippi River Valley.
- A frost advisory has been issued for parts of eastern Iowa from 1 AM to 8 AM on Friday as temperatures drop into the lower to mid 30s across the area.
(This afternoon through Friday night) A cold front is ahead of schedule and currently moving through the Permian Basin putting an abrupt halt to daytime heating. The low clouds will prevent much diurnal variation in temperatures Friday suggesting MAV guidance is too optimistic. By contrast the MET is showing much cooler temperatures, which may occur, but there is still a great deal of uncertainty in how cool the airmass is so stayed close to the NBM guidance which is about an even split between the GFS and NAM.
------------------------------------------------------------------ The progession of ridging over western Ohio into western PA this afternoon/evenig will support dry weather today and clearing gradually throughout the day. Limited cooling is likely as thicker cirrus limits nocturnal radiational cooling, keeping low temperature above normal and likely the highest reading for the upcoming week. KEY MESSAGES: - Showers and low probability thunderstorms are expected ahead of a cold front Friday.
801 PM EDT Thu Apr 18 2024 - Rain tonight as a cold front tracks through the region. - Showers exit Friday morning with drier and cooler weather heading into the weekend. Increasing high clouds downstream of an inbound cold front precede the arrival of MVFR CIGS and light rain showers between 04Z-06Z. Low and mid level ridging entrenched locally late this afternoon, immediately downstream of a broadening corridor of height falls emanating off a closed mid level circulation pivoting into western Ontario.
Otherwise, we'll be monitoring storms currently well to the north associated with a cold front that will approach northwest portions of the area toward daybreak. Going into the early morning a cold front will be in the process of dropping into the CWA allowing rain chances in the north to persist through the afternoon as the boundary moves off to our east.