Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
607 PM CST Sun Dec 31 2023 (This evening through Monday Night) At 20z, a cold front was located just north of the Interstate 30 corridor. The NAM and the high-resolution CAMS generally develop some precip as far north as Nacogdoches and southern Cherokee Counties, and this forecast favors the higher- res, short-range models. These winds are expected to advect some drier and significantly cooler air into the region.
929 PM EST Sun Dec 31 2023 Low pressure will move east across the Great Lakes tonight, bringing some light snow to the northern Ohio Valley. As this low moves away on Monday, cooler and drier air will move into the region.
722 PM MST Sun Dec 31 2023 - Areas of freezing fog will lead to reduced visibilities and potential for slick roadways across portions of the western Nebraska Panhandle tonight through Monday morning.
Ridging aloft will rule the day over the forecast area through Monday night. This second clipper proceeds a ridge extends out of high pressure centered over southern Canada.
651 PM CST Sun Dec 31 2023 (This afternoon through Monday) After a cold start to the morning, temperatures have rebounded into the lower 50s across the area under sunny skies. A low pressure system will move across the Ohio Valley tonight moving into the Western Atlantic tomorrow morning. This will rapidly send a cold front through Central Alabama, but dry, zonal flow aloft will prevent sufficient moisture return, so rain is not expected with this passage. However, it will reintroduce CAA back to the region as a large ridge builds over the Central CONUS. Although clouds will decrease during the day tomorrow, the cooler airmass will result in highs ranging from the mid 40s north to upper 50s and near 60F in the south.
612 PM CST Sun Dec 31 2023 (This evening through Monday night) As skies clear tonight and winds become light and variable, believe that we could have some freezing fog around. At this point we do not believe that we will have widespread dense freezing fog, but we could see some isolated spots decrease to less than a mile. The strongest winds (15 to 25 mph) are expected to be across the northwest where the tightest gradient will be between low pressure developing in southeast Colorado and high pressure retreating to the east across southern Kansas. The most dramatic warm up for Monday will come across the northwest where highs may be 10 degrees warmer than today.
821 PM EST Sun Dec 31 2023 Update/Marine Radar shows weakening echos continuing to sink southward as the upper low over western Lake Erie moves away from the region. - Colder Temperatures Tonight Could Cause Slick Roads Starting to see more snow showers as the deeper saturation moves in with the upper level low. As the low shifts east the positive vorticity advection and moisture begin to shift south of the area. Temperatures will continue to fall overnight into Monday morning with lows in the low to upper 20s. Highs again will bee in the low to mid 30s with lows Monday night in the mid to upper 20s.
1041 PM CST Sun Dec 31 2023 A cold front is moving south through the area this evening bringing with it temperatures in the 30s. Temperatures will continue to fall into the mid to low 30s as we approach midnight, but it will feel around 5 to 10 degrees cooler thanks to a light breeze.
1259 AM EST Mon Jan 1 2024 Aviation Radar shows weakening echos continuing to sink southward as the upper low over western Lake Erie moves away from the region. - Colder Temperatures Tonight Could Cause Slick Roads Starting to see more snow showers as the deeper saturation moves in with the upper level low. As the low shifts east the positive vorticity advection and moisture begin to shift south of the area. Temperatures will continue to fall overnight into Monday morning with lows in the low to upper 20s. Highs again will bee in the low to mid 30s with lows Monday night in the mid to upper 20s.
1028 PM MST Sun Dec 31 2023 - Areas of freezing fog will lead to reduced visibilities and potential for slick roadways across portions of the western Nebraska Panhandle tonight through Monday morning.
The ridge over the central United States continues today, with dry and calm weather for Wyoming persisting. Temperatures may be a tad cooler, but overall similar to previous days. The ridge flattens as those two previously mentioned lows travel eastward.
Areas of freezing fog will also be possible through mid-morning across far western Oklahoma, but models are fairly consistent in keeping dense freezing fog (capable of riming on elevated surfaces) just west of the 100th meridian where weak upslope positive moisture advection will be maximized.
Northerly flow is dominating the short term behind a cold front that moved through last night. The colder airmass in place behind the front combined with cloud cover has resulted in much of the area seeing highs in the low to mid 30s today, with the exception being over far south-central MO where it's been less cloudy and highs are in the low 40s. Temperatures drop into the low to mid 20s tonight with minimum wind chill values of 15-25 F.
late in the week through the weekend will likely bring cooler temperatures and our next chances for widespread precipitation. Latest surface analysis shows high pressure centered near the Missouri River, with a weak trof extending from Alberta southward through the central Rockies. Increasing southerly winds late overnight and westerly winds tomorrow morning as the trof approaches, then crosses the region, should help erode any lingering fog by around midday. Low-level thermal ridging ahead of the trof will bring a relatively warm day, particularly across our western two-thirds.
Temperatures today have the potential to exceed freezing and melt away remaining ice pack, however with lingering clouds this could be prevented from occuring. Due to the low uncertainty in how long it will take stratus to diminish, confidence in temperatures is low.
Dry weather this evening through Monday with weak upper ridging across Western Washington. Temperatures tonight in the low to mid 30s.
A ridge will strengthen over the area over the next 24 hours with dry conditions and areas of fog across the region. Still some uncertainty whether or not fog and stratus will fill the lower elevations like the Treasure and Magic Valleys over the next 24 hours. Ensembles favor fog and stratus development (60%+ chance) over the lower valleys, but I would guess it is overdone in the models and it will generally be mostly clear tonight with the lack of moisture in the low levels and lack of recent precipitation.
1009 PM EST Sun Dec 31 2023 High pressure will dominate through Monday. A dry cold front will move through Monday night followed by high pressure into midweek.
The chance (<30%) of flurries and graupel will continue along and north of I-70 this afternoon through the overnight as some deterministic soundings show small amounts of low-level instability lingering in the sub-freezing saturated layer that could produce brief periods of snow/graupel showers. Increased sunshine through clearing or at least broken cloud cover will warm temperatures to near normal tomorrow, a few degrees warmer than today.
High pressure promotes quiet weather characterized by seasonable temperatures and valley clouds and fog through Monday.
Temperatures may be a couple of degrees cooler, but all in, not bad for the first day of January.
1044 PM CST Sun Dec 31 2023 (This evening through Monday night) As skies clear tonight and winds become light and variable, believe that we could have some freezing fog around. At this point we do not believe that we will have widespread dense freezing fog, but we could see some isolated spots decrease to less than a mile. The strongest winds (15 to 25 mph) are expected to be across the northwest where the tightest gradient will be between low pressure developing in southeast Colorado and high pressure retreating to the east across southern Kansas. The most dramatic warm up for Monday will come across the northwest where highs may be 10 degrees warmer than today.
08 Previous short-term discussion: (This afternoon through Monday) After a cold start to the morning, temperatures have rebounded into the lower 50s across the area under sunny skies. A low pressure system will move across the Ohio Valley tonight moving into the Western Atlantic tomorrow morning. This will rapidly send a cold front through Central Alabama, but dry, zonal flow aloft will prevent sufficient moisture return, so rain is not expected with this passage. However, it will reintroduce CAA back to the region as a large ridge builds over the Central CONUS. Although clouds will decrease during the day tomorrow, the cooler airmass will result in highs ranging from the mid 40s north to upper 50s and near 60F in the south.
(Today and tonight) Early this morning, satellite imagery indicated low clouds (associated with some low level moisture coming in behind the departed cold front) moving into the Big Country. Cold air advection via northeasterly winds behind yesterday's cold front will bring cool highs for the start of the new year, with highs forecasted to be in the upper 40s in the Big Country, and low to mid 50s elsewhere. Tonight, increasing high clouds (associated with an eastward moving upper level trough across the Desert Southwest) will move across our area, which could help negate the strength of radiational cooling overnight. Lows in the low 30s are forecast.
(This evening through Monday) A dry cold front will move through the region this afternoon and tonight. Lows tonight will be cooler, ranging from the upper 20s along and north of a Sterling City to Clyde/Baird line to around freezing along I-10. New Year's Day will be cooler, with highs ranging from the upper 40s north of I- 20 to the mid 50s along I-10.
1031 PM CST Sun Dec 31 2023 (The rest of tonight) At mid evening the low level cloud deck continued across much of Eastern Oklahoma and far Northwest Arkansas. This was in response to the mid/upper level trof axis continuing to slowly drop southeast through the region. In the wake of this trof axis. just north of the back edge of the low clouds. To the south of the low clouds temps were running in the mid to upper 30s. Regardless, the temperatures are expected to be below normal as high pressure builds over the area from the north and a mid-level ridge prevails across the southern Plains.
Discussion: Upper level troughing extends from the central plains through the Ohio Valley this morning with a cold front moving across the Appalachians. Low level flow veering toward the northwest today may support a few flurries across the higher terrain of southwest Virginia, and extreme northeast Tennessee with little to no accumulations expected. Mostly cloudy skies will keep temperatures cooler today.
100 AM EST Mon Jan 1 2024 Low pressure will move east across the Great Lakes tonight, bringing some light snow to the northern Ohio Valley. As this low moves away on Monday, cooler and drier air will move into the region.
1240 AM EST Mon Jan 1 2024 High pressure will dominate today. A dry cold front will move through tonight followed by high pressure into midweek.
(The rest of tonight) At mid evening the low level cloud deck continued across much of Eastern Oklahoma and far Northwest Arkansas. This was in response to the mid/upper level trof axis continuing to slowly drop southeast through the region. In the wake of this trof axis. just north of the back edge of the low clouds. To the south of the low clouds temps were running in the mid to upper 30s. Regardless, the temperatures are expected to be below normal as high pressure builds over the area from the north and a mid-level ridge prevails across the southern Plains.
Temperatures will remain on the cooler side today in the upper 60s to near 70 with some locations mainly along the immediate coasts and in far South Florida possibly hitting a tick or two above 70. Overnight lows will fall into the 40s over most of the interior and lake regions and in the low 50s near the coasts. For New Year's Day, temperatures will be in the low 70s.
This will translate into mostly 60s for highs through mid week, with even some cooler 50s for highs in the lower deserts by the end of the week.
1035 PM CST Sun Dec 31 2023 A cold front is moving south through the area this evening bringing with it temperatures in the 30s. Temperatures will continue to fall into the mid to low 30s as we approach midnight, but it will feel around 5 to 10 degrees cooler thanks to a light breeze.
1046 PM CST Sun Dec 31 2023 (This evening through Monday) A dry cold front will move through the region this afternoon and tonight. Lows tonight will be cooler, ranging from the upper 20s along and north of a Sterling City to Clyde/Baird line to around freezing along I-10. New Year's Day will be cooler, with highs ranging from the upper 40s north of I- 20 to the mid 50s along I-10.
(Today and tonight) The near term issue to start off 2024 is stratus and possibly freezing fog. Freezing fog that was anticipated earlier is yet to develop as there has been just enough dry advection in tandem with weak cold advection to keep the temp-dew spreads on the order of 2 to 6 degrees for most of the forecast area. Looking aloft, an upper level ridge axis over New Mexico will shift eastward over the forecast area this afternoon and to the east this evening. Some cirrus will work its way through the ridge but should remain insignificant in terms of sensible weather. All told, NBM temperatures this afternoon look reasonable with cooler temperatures to the east where stratus will slow warming this morning and where low level flow will remain more backed relative to western zones.
(Today) As of 06Z, a cold front has shifted south to near the I-20 corridor. Models indicate this first band of clouds and the higher clouds already moving through will shift southeast this morning, leaving a mostly sunny day. As the upper trough now in the lower MO valley drops through the TN valley late this afternoon, the lower clouds further north may start to dip into southern middle TN late this afternoon. Thus, solar heating may offset the cold advection somewhat today, and highs in the lower to middle 40s look obtainable at this point.
316 AM EST Mon Jan 1 2024 High pressure will dominate today. A dry cold front will move through tonight followed by high pressure into midweek.
This high is providing weak north to northeasterly breezes and is maintaining cool dry conditions. Expect overnight lows to range quite widely in the 50s with dew points in the lower to mid 50s. A ridge across Florida will maintain light north to northeasterly breezes on Keys waters through the overnight period riding into the new year.
A large upper trough in the Great Lakes is dragging a front that is set to backdoor into the Permian Basin this evening. While this front brings much cooler in to start the first morning of 2024, increased low level moisture and relative humidity following this front could also bring some patchy fog into the northern Permian Basin. With temperatures below freezing in these areas, this fog would be realized as freezing fog, which could lead to a few slick spots, especially on bridges/overpasses and elevated surfaces. Temperatures tomorrow afternoon will be 15-20 degrees cooler across most of the region behind tonight's front, only reaching the upper 40s and low 50s. The front shouldn't clear the higher terrain south of I-10 and locations along the Rio Grande should still stay in the upper 60s as a result.
- Trending cooler and more unsettled late in the week through the weekend with increased chances for precipitation, and potential for elevated wind gusts in the southeast Wyoming wind corridors. Mild temperatures today as H7 temperatures remain near -2 deg C, supporting daytime highs near 50 over the high plains. A bit cooler for Tuesday w/ the passage of a dry cold front overnight, but continued fairly mild w/ most areas still being in the 40s along/east of I-25.
Clusters agree on split flow continuing midweek with the northern stream's ridging pattern over parts of the northern Rockies and Northern Plains extending into Canada.
Increasing southwesterly low-level return flow today should allow highs to reach the lower to mid 30s this afternoon with mostly sunny skies. Temperatures behind this front will mix out and bring slightly warmer readings in the mid 30s to low 40s to the region.
947 AM EST Mon Jan 1 2024 High pressure will dominate today. A dry cold front will move through tonight followed by high pressure into midweek.
Overnight lows drop into the low to mid 20s. Subsequently, upper-level ridging moves overhead tonight into Tuesday, allowing for warmer temperatures and continued dry conditions under some high clouds.
519 AM CST Mon Jan 1 2024 (Today) As of 06Z, a cold front has shifted south to near the I-20 corridor. Models indicate this first band of clouds and the higher clouds already moving through will shift southeast this morning, leaving a mostly sunny day. As the upper trough now in the lower MO valley drops through the TN valley late this afternoon, the lower clouds further north may start to dip into southern middle TN late this afternoon. Thus, solar heating may offset the cold advection somewhat today, and highs in the lower to middle 40s look obtainable at this point.
914 AM EST Mon Jan 1 2024 High pressure builds over the area today, then to the south tonight through Tuesday.
Light northerly winds coupled with clear skies allowed temperatures to fall into the lower to mid 50s for the Lower Keys. In fact the lowest temperature recorded so far this morning at the Key West International Airport was 55 degrees, which is surprisingly only 4 degrees away from the daily record of 51 degrees for this date set back in 2001. Secondary high pressure originating from the central U. As it races across the Sunshine State an attendent cold front will get dragged across the Keys.
209 AM MST Mon Jan 1 2024 Cooler with periods of active weather expected through the coming weekend.
629 AM EST Mon Jan 1 2024 High pressure will dominate today. A dry cold front will move through tonight followed by high pressure into midweek.
Sunny skies on Tuesday as high pressure really sets up shop over the area.
Otherwise, minor impacts due to low stratus and freezing fog will be present, especially across northwest Montana and portions of north-central Idaho. A ridge of high pressure will return to the Northern Rockies today, allowing for the development and strengthening of valley inversions.
638 AM EST Mon Jan 1 2024 High pressure builds over the area today, then to the south tonight through Tuesday.
551 AM CST Mon Jan 1 2024 Happy New Year! A cold front is currently pushing southward through the area and was near a Natchez to Meridian line as of 2 AM. A weak wave tracking ahead of this front along the Gulf Coast continues to be very suppressed by the building ridge, and it appears less and less likely that it will bring light rain showers to our sections of south MS this morning. Still it will be noticeably cooler today, especially with the northerly breeze.
311 AM CST Mon Jan 1 2024 Happy New Year! A cold front is currently pushing southward through the area and was near a Natchez to Meridian line as of 2 AM. A weak wave tracking ahead of this front along the Gulf Coast continues to be very suppressed by the building ridge, and it appears less and less likely that it will bring light rain showers to our sections of south MS this morning. Still it will be noticeably cooler today, especially with the northerly breeze.
528 AM CST Mon Jan 1 2024 (Today and tonight) Early this morning, satellite imagery indicated low clouds (associated with some low level moisture coming in behind the departed cold front) moving into the Big Country. Cold air advection via northeasterly winds behind yesterday's cold front will bring cool highs for the start of the new year, with highs forecasted to be in the upper 40s in the Big Country, and low to mid 50s elsewhere. Tonight, increasing high clouds (associated with an eastward moving upper level trough across the Desert Southwest) will move across our area, which could help negate the strength of radiational cooling overnight. Lows in the low 30s are forecast.
428 AM MST Mon Jan 1 2024 Key Messages: - Warmer Temps over the plains while interior will be a few degrees cooler as compared to yesterday; remaining dry all areas with light winds. Main issues will be the high clouds. It will be about 10F warmer over the plains today as compared to yesterday, but the mtns and valleys will be several degrees cooler. Due to the increasing clouds, temps should be a few degrees warmer across the area as compared to this mornings mins.
401 AM CST Mon Jan 1 2024 - Areas of freezing fog gradually dissipate this morning.
Also, with any pcpn chances likely tied to the depth of the low/near sfc saturation - there could be questions of ice in the cloud.
* Freezing fog potential is lower than what we saw last night due to cloud cover.
516 AM CST Mon Jan 1 2024 - Areas of freezing fog gradually dissipate this morning.
Little accumulation is expected outside of the ridges. - Several inches of long-duration accumulation is possible for the ridges. ______________________________________________________________ A weakening upper level trough will cross the region this morning. The best lift within the trough will move southeastward and exit by early afternoon. All of the snow looks to be light, with the exception of the ridges, where more enhanced snow is possible later this morning and during the afternoon as the flow above the surface will support orographic lift. NBM probabilities for an inch of snow, outside of the ridges are very low, generally 20% or less. Probabilities on the ridge peaks for an inch or greater are noticeably higher close to 60-80%. Latest forecast will go close to the 75th percentile for accumulations in the ridges due to the mesoscale features that will create the higher snowfall rates.
Slightly warmer and drier on Tuesday, before more clouds, rain and mountain snow develop for the middle of the week. WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO Morning water vapor imagery shows the center of the upper level low approximately 275 miles west-southwest of San Diego and moving east. The low moves across northern Baja late this morning into the afternoon with slight chances of precipitation shifting to areas along the US/Mexico border. Minor warming and dry on Tuesday as weak ridging moves overhead.
Meanwhile, a trough axis extending west- southwestward from this feature will track southeastward across the TN Valley later this morning and this afternoon, veering winds aloft to the northwest.
Winds will become northerly around 10 knots through the day behind a weak cold front that has moved south of the coast. A cooler and drier airmass moves south over the region in response, behind a cold front that moves over the forecast area today. The cooler airmass moving over the area will bring temperatures below seasonal norms for the Near Term. Tonight, freezing temperatures return to the forecast area, with mid to upper 20s expected along and north of a Janice, Mississippi to Florala, Alabama line. South of this line low temperatures are expected to range from 30-35 degrees, a bit warmer along the coast.
Northwesterly winds are becoming breezy across NW SD behind the trough axis, and cooler air will start moving in this afternoon. As cooler air continues spreading over the CWA tonight and winds decrease, RH will approach 100%, and low clouds and patchy fog may develop across northeastern WY and NW SD. Upper ridging through the middle of the week will keep conditions dry, and cool high pressure will knock highs back a few degrees - but they will still be near average. Towards the end of the week, deterministic models and ensembles are showing a low pressure system swinging from the SW US up through the central plains.