Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1057 PM CDT Thu Jul 25 2024 (This evening through Friday) A 600 dam mid-level ridge remains centered across the southwest U. with an elongated weakness/trough axis in the ridge across Arkansas, southeast Oklahoma, and eastern Texas. The trough axis will consolidate with a vorticity maxima off the upper Texas coast and will evolve toward a mid/upper-level low near the Arklatex on Friday. With the mid-level ridge and the attendant low-level thermal ridge remaining to the west, temperatures will remain near to slightly below-average ranging from the mid 80s (southeast) to mid 90s deg F (west into north central).
------------------------------------------------------------------- High pressure will gradually encroach from the northwest overnight increasing subsidence and drying profiles. Friday will be defined by high pressure, subsidence, dry conditions, and mostly clear skies save a few cumulus with daytime mixing.
Unsettled and cooler weather returns the beginning of the new work week.
Water vapor shows an upper ridge extending from the Desert Southwest up through the Northern Plains, with an upper trof over the Pacific Northwest. At the surface a warm front extends across central South Dakota, a trof is situated across eastern Wyoming, and the "cold" front extends across eastern Montana into northwest Wyoming. Radar is picking up on some clouds/virga along the trof in Wyoming. East of the Black Hills, winds are gusty from the south at 15 to 25 mph; while closer to the trof, light west winds prevail. For today, the trof and cold front will push through the area this morning before stalling out somewhere over south-central South Dakota this afternoon. This will usher in some cooler air into the western 2/3rds of the area.
(Today and tonight) An upper ridge will allow for clear skies to persist through the morning with lows bottoming out in the mid 60s. Today will largely be similar to yesterday with the same overall large-scale pattern with the aforementioned ridge dominating the forecast area.
1228 AM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024 (This evening through Friday) An upper level low will remain across coastal Texas through the next 24 hours with an upper level ridge extending from northwest Mexico into the Central and Southern Plains.
Cooler conditions expected this weekend with below normal temperatures for most locations. In addition to the cooler conditions, gusty west winds are expected each afternoon and evening in the mountains and deserts. An incoming trough will increase onshore flow Friday through the weekend, resulting in increased low cloud coverage along the coast this weekend.
354 AM EDT Fri Jul 26 2024 A cold front will move south of the area later today.
(Today through Saturday) BRO radar currently shows scattered to numerous convection across the Lower Texas coastal waters. Some of this convection along the coast may reach portions of the Lower Rio Grande Valley before daybreak.
657 AM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024 Slightly cooler and wetter conditions persist today as we remain under SW flow regime. We finally see a change in the upper pattern as high pressure begins to build in from the SE this weekend. It will still be wet, however with an upper low cut off over the Ozarks, keeping SW flow over our area through the weekend.
Surface and upper level ridges will build over our area. Temperatures will be a few degrees warmer by Saturday afternoon with highs mainly in the lower 80s areawide with some mid 80s in the warmer locations. OVernight lows temperatures SAturday night look to be near seasonal in the 50s and low 60s, but with radiational cooling possible with clear skies, some cooler temperatures may be possible.
558 AM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024 (Today) A weak upper low centered near the Texas/Louisiana border will lift slowly north today.
Surface pressure gradients are similar to 24 hours ago with weak onshore flow bringing a little cooler temperatures and slightly higher RH into the Central Valley.
Daily afternoon temperatures in the upper 80s and 90s with dew points in the low 70s will result in late afternoon heat index values peaking in the mid 90s to near 100 degrees.
333 AM MDT Fri Jul 26 2024 A cooler westerly flow aloft will keep temperatures near normal through the weekend with periods of breezy winds across North Central, Central, and Southwest Montana.
632 AM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024 (Today) Mean troughing that has been a feature across the eastern CONUS was finally showing signs of moving more to the east, as upper level ridging begins building over the Great Lakes. Muggy conditions prevailed otherwise with 2AM temperatures across the Tennessee Valley in the low/mid 70s with light winds. Before and between showers, high temperatures should warm into the low/mid 80s.
By Saturday morning, this boundary shifts southward over GA/SC and will also nudge the high pressure ridge slightly southward as well becoming centered over the central part of the state.
937 AM EDT Fri Jul 26 2024 Enhanced showers along the base of the trough are continuing to move through the Tennessee Valley this morning. The trough axis is expected to be near the Interstate 40 corridor this afternoon and evening. Rain chances will be focused further south and along the higher terrain on Saturday with scattered to numerous coverage each day afterwards.
419 AM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024 Slightly cooler and wetter conditions persist today as we remain under SW flow regime. We finally see a change in the upper pattern as high pressure begins to build in from the SE this weekend. It will still be wet, however with an upper low cut off over the Ozarks, keeping SW flow over our area through the weekend.
As an upper trough drops into the Great Lakes, the front will continue to push through North Carolina and into our area by the afternoon and into evening. An upper level trough moving through New England finally pushes a persistent frontal boundary south and west of the region this weekend.
622 AM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024 (Today through Saturday Night) Cooler than normal and generally wet condns are set to continue thru the short term fcst, as isltd to sctd rain and thunderstorms are expected acrs portions of the FA this aftn. Precip covg should incrs to much of the FA on Sat, as a weak upper low slowly maneuvers acrs the region.
1031 AM EDT Fri Jul 26 2024 High pressure will provide mostly clear and dry conditions through Saturday night.
510 AM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024 (Today and tonight) An upper ridge will allow for clear skies to persist through the morning with lows bottoming out in the mid 60s. Today will largely be similar to yesterday with the same overall large-scale pattern with the aforementioned ridge dominating the forecast area.
(Today and tonight) An upper level low pressure will remain off to our east and southeast as it pushes north across eastern Texas from off the coastal areas. We remain wedged between the previously mention low pressure and a high pressure ridge to our west.
In the meantime, as the northern portion of the upper level ridge across the Upper Midwest shifts to the east, the cutoff upper low over the Arklatex region will begin to lift northward towards the KS/MO border by midday Saturday. Temperatures on Saturday will be a bit cooler due to increased cloud cover and precipitation.
640 AM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024 (Today through Saturday) BRO radar currently shows scattered to numerous convection across the Lower Texas coastal waters. Some of this convection along the coast may reach portions of the Lower Rio Grande Valley before daybreak.
The trough axis is expected to be near the Interstate 40 corridor this afternoon and evening. Rain chances will be focused further south and along the higher terrain on Saturday with scattered to numerous coverage each day afterwards.
The highest forecast Pws will be in the south and west, so feel pretty good about rain chances and may need to increase to categorical with the next run or two.
343 AM MDT Fri Jul 26 2024 - Showers and storms expected over and near the higher terrain each afternoon.
- High pressure will linger into Saturday, maintaining the continued quiet weather pattern.
Along with push from the west locally breezy afternoon southwest winds and slightly cooler temperatures are anticipated. An axis of high pressure aloft extended just off the northern Baja California coast to across Colorado during the early morning. At the same time a series of troughs from over northwest Canada were pushing across the Pacific Northwest states. The result over the next few days will be to push the high southward opening the door for a much drier westerly air mass.
A weak upper level trough slides across the region today and remains through the weekend.
703 AM EDT Fri Jul 26 2024 The threat for heavy rain continues today but ends later Saturday as a cold front moves through.
632 AM EDT Fri Jul 26 2024 High pressure will provide mostly clear and dry conditions through Saturday night.
1031 AM EDT Fri Jul 26 2024 The Atlc ridge axis has shifted south and is draped across central FL and has also weakened slightly since yesterday. The early morning Cape sounding shows considerable moisture in the low levels below 5k ft.
Cooler on Saturday with isolated thunderstorms possible across White Pine and eastern Elko counties. Trough energy approaching NV from the west will bring drier air into Humboldt county and the northwestern half of Elko county today. Tonight into Saturday trough energy from the west expands east across northern NV.
603 AM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024 (Today through Saturday afternoon) A modest upper level high will leave eastern New Mexico and West Texas under dry subsidence.
The upper trough extending from southeast Canada to the southern Plains will be split in two as an upper ridge over the northern Plains slips eastward over the Great Lakes region and merges with the upper high over the northeast Gulf. This will form an omega block pattern over the eastern US, with one upper trough extending down the Eastern Seaboard and the other upper trough over the central and southern Plains. At the surface, the weak high pressure across the region will be replaced by a weak trough slipping southwestward from the Carolinas to the Deep South. 2", scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will develop this afternoon, with the highest coverage occurring south of US Highway 84.
* Dry conditions with cooler temperatures near seasonal averages will prevail this weekend through the remainder of July.
(The rest of today ) Weak upper level troughing over the area today will expand and deepen, resulting in a few degrees of cooling compared to yesterday. Areas of clouds and isolated showers and thunderstorms (20% chance) will develop today, especially over the higher terrain of eastern OK and northwest AR.
611 AM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024 (Today and tonight) An upper level low pressure will remain off to our east and southeast as it pushes north across eastern Texas from off the coastal areas. We remain wedged between the previously mention low pressure and a high pressure ridge to our west.
642 AM EDT Fri Jul 26 2024 High pressure will dominate through the weekend resulting in tranquil and comfortable conditions.
642 AM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024 (Today through Saturday Night) An upper level trough remains in place over the Southern Plains, with ridging present on either side over the NE Gulf of Mexico and Baja California. A coastal trough/low looming of the Texas coastline should supply sufficient forcing and moisture to bring numerous showers and thunderstorms into the weekend. 100-150m2s2 of 1km SRH with 1km/3km EHI values 1-2 in proximity to the coast suggest the potential for a brief tornado to spinup trough early dawn.
638 AM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024 (Today through Saturday) The upper level trough axis will remain situated near the I-35 corridor today. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are forecast today near and just west of the trough axis, with scattered coverage to the east across the Coastal Plains. On Saturday the southern end of the upper level trough axis may drift slightly west.
However, the stagnate upper-level flow created by the 500mb high pressure system will make it hard for it fully go away. Speaking of the 500mb high pressure system, expect it to be the leading cause of dry conditions for most of the Panhandles this morning and afternoon. The only exception, however, will be the movement of a weak upper-level trough just to our north later this evening. This will help to break down the high just enough open up the low chance (10 to 20%) of a shower or isolated thunderstorm developing across the Western Panhandles. These chances could hold through the overnight hours, but will rapidly deteriorate once the trough moves out Saturday morning.
(Today through Saturday Night) Cooler than normal and generally wet condns are set to continue thru the short term fcst, as isltd to sctd rain and thunderstorms are expected acrs portions of the FA this aftn. Precip covg should incrs to much of the FA on Sat, as a weak upper low slowly maneuvers acrs the region.
The broad upper-level trough that's been to our north for days will finally exit to the east tonight and Saturday as ridging briefly builds over the SE US. (Saturday Night through next Friday) Saturday's ridge will only be brief as a trough quickly moves across the Midwest, suppressing the ridge to the south.
(This evening through Saturday) An upper-level ridge was centered over Southern California this afternoon, with an axis extending up to the northern Great Plains. Meanwhile, positively-tilted troughing was located over Texas, placing the forecast area under NNE flow aloft. As an upper low crossing into Saskatchewan continues to move eastward, the ridge should flatten and begin to gradually shift eastward through the period while the trough in TX ejects to the northeast on Saturday.
High pressure building in from the north will bring drier and cooler temperatures to the area for the weekend. 2) High pressure brings drier conditions and clearer skies tomorrow A weak front is currently located along the Virginia/North Carolina border and surface flow is mainly from east/northeast north of the front. Skies gradually clear overnight as high pressure continues to push into the region from the Great Lakes. Under better influence of high pressure on Saturday so drier conditions and mostly sunny skies are becoming more likely.
The 500mb ridging that is overhead today will shift eastward tonight into Saturday, as a low over Alberta also tracks to the east. This will serve to flatten the ridge and result in west or southwest flow for the remainder of the forecast. Overall, temperatures will stay on the hot side and there may not be much of a break from the high level smoke. Starting to see some lower 90s temperatures across southeast North Dakota with dewpoints in the low to mid 70s. The surface boundary/cold front is poking into the Devils Lake region, with noticeably cooler temperatures and less humidity behind it. The severe weather threat tonight is only a 1/5 risk due to the low overall confidence in how it may unfold. This may change by late afternoon into tonight, as the low level jet increases slightly again.
The Atlc ridge axis has shifted south and is draped across central FL and has also weakened slightly since yesterday. The early morning Cape sounding shows considerable moisture in the low levels below 5k ft.
Some cumulus has developed over the higher terrain but none of this has produced any showers. Surface and upper level ridges will build over our area. Temperatures will be a few degrees warmer by Saturday afternoon with highs mainly in the lower 80s areawide with some mid 80s in the warmer locations. OVernight lows temperatures SAturday night look to be near seasonal in the 50s and low 60s, but with radiational cooling possible with clear skies, some cooler temperatures may be possible.
426 PM EDT Fri Jul 26 2024 High pressure will dominate through the weekend resulting in tranquil and comfortable conditions.
(This evening through Saturday Night) Upper-level trough that has brought copious amounts of rainfall to the region over the past several days will retrograde northwest tonight. High temperatures on Saturday will remain seasonably cool in the lower to middle 80s due to increased rainfall and cloud-cover.
Winds will remain gusty through Saturday across ridges. As a 70 kts 250 MB upper jet moves across the Sierra, winds will ramp up over the ridges and upper slopes with gusts 50+ mph (locally to 70 mph at the typical windiest spots).
Not much change in the overall pattern expected through Saturday with the upper long wave trough remaining draped from southwest to northeast across Texas. With abundant moisture remaining in place, combined with the upper trough, redevelopment of the convection is expected once again across the Coastal Areas overnight into early Saturday morning.
(Remainder of this Afternoon and Tonight) The forecast area remains located in between a trough and associated vort maxima to our west and an upr ridge to our SE.
1017 AM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024 - High pressure will linger into Saturday, maintaining the continued quiet weather pattern.
Accompanying the drier air will be locally breezy afternoon southwest winds and slightly cooler temperatures. This is due to drier air aloft and southwesterly flow developing, as a trough impacts the west coast heading into the weekend.
A weak upper trough stalling over Mid-America will support a smattering of isolated to widely scattered showers/storms over eastern Kansas Saturday, mainly during the afternoon through early evening. For Saturday night, could see a few showers/storms get into central and north-central Kansas as activity rolls off the High Plains late in the evening.
Daily afternoon temperatures in the upper 80s and 90s with dew points in the low 70s will result in late afternoon heat index values in the mid 90s to near 100 degrees.
(This evening through Saturday night) Weak upper level troughing continues east of our region during the short term period. Meanwhile the upper ridge will build back in and place itself firmly over the south central CONUS by the start of the new week. By or after midnight tonight, a few isolated showers and thunderstorms may generate off of the incoming trough across central portions of the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles.
(Rest of Today) The central TN Valley this morning is sandwiched between an upr low to our west and upr ridge to our south. Showers and some thunderstorms have been ongoing this morning largely to our W-NW, along low/mid level convergent axes in association with the upr trough. The heavier activity just to our NW may be aided by a narrow low-lvl jet in between the low-lvl low/high, but also aided in part by somewhat favorable upr jet dynamics. Training of cells in the high moisture content conditions will create a marginal risk for flash flooding, mainly in urban and poor drainage locations.
253 PM EDT Fri Jul 26 2024 High pressure and dry conditions will be in place through Saturday.
1219 PM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024 (Today and tonight) An upper ridge will allow for clear skies to persist through the morning with lows bottoming out in the mid 60s. Today will largely be similar to yesterday with the same overall large-scale pattern with the aforementioned ridge dominating the forecast area.
(This afternoon through Saturday night) Mid level ridging will continue to expand across the region leading to increasing temperatures each day.
(This evening through Saturday night) The area remains between an upper level high centered just east of the forecast area and an upper level height low or weakness over the Midsouth with the H5 trough extending from Mexico to the northeastern U.
119 PM EDT Fri Jul 26 2024 Enhanced showers along the base of the trough are continuing to move through the Tennessee Valley this morning. The trough axis is expected to be near the Interstate 40 corridor this afternoon and evening. Rain chances will be focused further south and along the higher terrain on Saturday with scattered to numerous coverage each day afterwards.
1135 AM MDT Fri Jul 26 2024 - Showers and storms expected over and near the higher terrain each afternoon.
1140 AM MDT Fri Jul 26 2024 UPDATED AVIATION SECTION A cooler westerly flow aloft will keep temperatures near normal through the weekend with periods of breezy winds across North Central, Central, and Southwest Montana.
1207 PM EDT Fri Jul 26 2024 High pressure will dominate through the weekend resulting in tranquil and comfortable conditions.
1227 PM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024 (The rest of today ) Weak upper level troughing over the area today will expand and deepen, resulting in a few degrees of cooling compared to yesterday. Areas of clouds and isolated showers and thunderstorms (20% chance) will develop today, especially over the higher terrain of eastern OK and northwest AR.
The high pressure over us weakens the steering flow, so any storms that develop would be slow moving which poses a localized flooding risk. Temperatures for the near term will be in the low 90s for the afternoon highs, and overnight lows will be in the mid 70s.
216 PM EDT Fri Jul 26 2024 - Enjoyable weather tonight and Saturday as an area of high pressure keeps us dry with highs in the low to mid 80's.
238 PM EDT Fri Jul 26 2024 Mid/upper-level high pressure remains over the region this afternoon with a trough swinging through the northeast U.
259 PM EDT Fri Jul 26 2024 High pressure will dominate through the weekend resulting in tranquil and comfortable conditions.
There is some enhanced moisture convergence and slightly better synoptic forcing on the southern edge of the trough moving through. Expect another round of patchy fog in our region with the higher dew points and recent rainfalls.
1212 PM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024 (Today through Saturday afternoon) A modest upper level high will leave eastern New Mexico and West Texas under dry subsidence.
(This evening through Saturday) Over the next 24 hours, an upper level low will remain across East Texas, with an upper level ridge across the Southwest U. An isolated showers or thunderstorm is possible in our far southeast counties Saturday afternoon, closer to the aforementioned upper level low, but overall most locations should remain dry.
Accompanying the drier air will be locally breezy afternoon southwest winds and slightly cooler temperatures.
The broad trough that has assisted in the active pattern we've seen this week will pull east overnight with upper ridging building in on Saturday.
Unsettled and cooler weather returns the beginning of the new work week. Other than a slight chance for a shower or storm across the mountains this afternoon as a disturbance moves south through the region, dry weather is expected for the near term period with high pressure in control.
1217 PM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024 (Today through Saturday Night) Cooler than normal and generally wet condns are set to continue thru the short term fcst, as isltd to sctd rain and thunderstorms are expected acrs portions of the FA this aftn. Precip covg should incrs to much of the FA on Sat, as a weak upper low slowly maneuvers acrs the region.
1202 PM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024 (Today and tonight) An upper level low pressure will remain off to our east and southeast as it pushes north across eastern Texas from off the coastal areas. We remain wedged between the previously mention low pressure and a high pressure ridge to our west.
1129 AM EDT Fri Jul 26 2024 The threat for heavy rain continues today but ends later Saturday as a cold front moves through.
(Rest of today through Saturday) A tropical upper tropospheric trough (TUTT) lingers around the Bahamas and Cuba this weekend while a ridge of Atlantic high pressure sits over Central Florida. As we kick off the weekend, the front will come into phase with a deep-layered trough over the northeastern United States which could cause the front to advance south and east, pinching the ridge back a bit into the Atlantic. Temperatures remain warm with maximums in the lower to mid 90s and minimums ranging from the mid 70s inland to the lower 80s along the east coast urban heat island. Heat index values will reach the triple digits and the few degrees warmer Saturday compared to today could lead to a Heat Advisory becoming necessary.