Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Tightening pressure gradient helping drive increasingly gusty southwest winds, with associated low level warm air advection helping drive temperatures into the upper 60s and lower 70s for most south of the big bridge. More clouds and showers have kept those north of it just a few degrees cooler. Cold front and corridor of rain continues south Thursday, with both looking to exit our area during the afternoon. Wouldn't be surprised to see some isolated colder readings overnight Friday with drying surface conditions during the day Friday and as high pressure settles directly overhead.
The monsoonal moisture will continue affecting our forecast area, fueling isolated thunderstorms across the WA Cascades and eastern mountains through this evening with mainly showers over the lowlands. Lingering haze may prevail across the lowlands through overnight from plumes of smoke from the fires over Idaho panhandle. However with the low pressure system off the OR coast, the weak upslope flow will push light showers across Kittitas Valley over the weekend during morning hours (15-30% chance).
A band of showers is advancing south across northern Lower MI early this morning, occurring within a corridor of deep layer moisture convergence just ahead of a cold front currently draped from northern Lake Huron across the Straits toward Green Bay. The cold front arrives across the Tri Cities and Thumb early this afternoon before continuing south and reaching the Metro Detroit area by early evening.
233 AM EDT Thu Aug 28 2025 High pressure will be to our south today then slide to the east tonight. Upper level low pressure will drop south from Quebec on Friday then slowly cross the area this weekend.
Lows will be a little cooler with more 50s than 60s as a drier airmass prevails across southwest Kansas.
- Added 15-25% chances of showers and storms in northeast Iowa and southeast Minnesota for the Labor Day weekend as low pressure systems undercut a 500 mb high centered over western Ontario and southern Manitoba. High temperatures will be mainly in the lower and mid-70s. This will allow for the opportunity of undercutting low pressure systems to potentially bring scattered showers and storms to southeast Minnesota and northeast Iowa. High temperatures will be mainly in the lower and mid-70s.
A closed upper-level low is dropping through northeast Ontario and into Quebec this morning with a cold front at the surface extending into southwest Wisconsin. Preceding the cold front is a weak impulse streaking through Illinois, characterized by a pocket of 35-knot 850-mb wind. The aformentioned low-level jet appears to be the primary driver, aided by the approaching cold front and its upper- level wind field which will provide enhanced lift. Increasing confidence in isolated thunderstorms looking more probable along the cold front this afternoon, primarily toward the Michigan state line. The tallest storms could produce pea size hail thanks to the low freezing levels just shy of 10,000 ft. Cool northwest flow behind this front limits high temperatures Friday to only the low-70s at best.
1233 AM EDT Thu Aug 28 2025 Expect dry and cool conditions as high pressure prevails through Thursday. At the surface, high pressure will start to erode on Thursday as a mid-lvl trough situated over the Great Lakes begins to strengthen and shift southeastward towards the region. This low should move offshore by Friday morning as this frontal boundary remains to the south through the weekend.
Warmer and drier weather will occur Friday into the weekend with less than 10% chances for storm activity. 10"/hr or less, though as the remnant upper low lifts north and into So Cal, there could be enough dynamics coupled with weak elevated instability to produce local rates of 0. Thunderstorm probabilites are fairly low, less than 5% for all areas tonight, increasing to 5-15% Thursday afternoon with the highest chances over the mountains. Otherwise thick cloud cover and the weak low moving through will bring considerable cooling tomorrow with highs in the upper 70s to upper 80s in the coastal areas, valleys, and high deserts, 60s-70s in the mountains, and low to mid 90s in the low deserts. High pressure over northern Mexico will grow and expand this weekend. This will bring drier, less humid air to the area with warmer temperatures.
Tonight, an upper trough remains over the eastern CONUS, keeping northwest flow over the Lower Ohio Valley. Tomorrow, the upper trough remains over the eastern CONUS, keeping northwest flow over the CWA with high pressure at the surface. Winds will begin out of the south and will continue veering all day towards the north as the center of the high continues moving off to the east. Temperatures are expected to climb slightly warmer than today, but still remaining near 80. Friday, a cold front drops south through southern Indiana and central Kentucky. High temperatures have trended slightly warmer over southern Indiana. Most places across southern Indiana should reach the low 80s, but some may only reach the upper 70s.
Thunderstorm potential has gone down today as the ridge of high pressure over the Four Corners begins to slowly move west and shift its axis tilt. Upper level winds will continue to become more on-shore from the west as the ridge moves helping with the cooler temperatures. Temperatures will increase over the weekend as the ridge continues to build as it moves west over California.
Broad ridging over the western half of the CONUS continues to maintain seasonable high temperatures through Thursday, along with mostly sunny skies. Upper low pressure will begin organizing over eastern Montana Thursday night. Increased sky cover and a bit cooler, albeit still seasonable, temperatures will be the more obvious result for most. As the low meanders eastward through the weekend, low precipitation chances will spread eastward mainly across southern parts of the state, or mostly along and south of I94.
South of this boundary, temperatures will be in the low 80s. Dry air will delay the low-level moisture transport, decreasing intensity and coverage of rain. This is seen best by the dry soundings with winds from the east in the low- levels. Trends in 12z guidance today follows the expectation of the stubbornness of high pressure blocking: the onset of better precipitation is stalled.
- A surge of moisture along the decaying frontal boundary Friday through the weekend will result in elevated rain chances and cooler temperatures.
Additionally, an upper-level jet will move towards the Lower/Middle Mississippi Valley leaving our area in a zone of upper-level diffluence. Storm motion is expected to be to the southeast along the axis of convergence of the low-level jet making training storms possible overnight. Given expansive cloud cover, high temperatures will remain in the low to mid 70s. Weak mid-level ridging will move in, allowing temperatures to slowly rise back into the mid to upper 70s on Friday.
Morning WV imagery depicts continued E CONUS longwave troughing with ridge axis aloft suppressed to the far southern peninsula and FL Straits, while at the surface a quasi-stationary boundary continues to straddle S FL.
- More widespread rain chances and cooler conditions return Friday through the upcoming holiday weekend.
651 AM EDT Thu Aug 28 2025 Showers and cooler air will move into the region tonight and Friday as a cold front passes through the area. High pressure with dry and progressively milder weather is expected for the upcoming weekend. A cold front is expected to pass through the area west-to-east tonight into Friday morning. The frontal boundary arrives this evening, and will bring much cooler air that will funnel into our area. Although we are currently sitting at below average temperatures, high temperatures are only expected to reach into the low to upper 60s Friday. The upper level trough kicks off to the north and east, settling almost stationary just north of New England.
Updated at 331 AM PDT Thu Aug 28 2025 - Near normal temperatures today and Friday, slightly warmer for the weekend - Quiet weather for the holiday weekend (Today and tonight) Offshore marine layer stratus is once again slow to develop early this Thursday morning.
334 AM PDT Thu Aug 28 2025 Moisture from the remnants of Tropical Storm Juliette will bring more clouds and cooler high temperatures today with greater chances for showers to the south with lesser chances to the north.
Water vapor imagery shows monsoonal moisture wrapping around weak upper level ridge and streaming into the Northern Plains. An upper low sits over the Pacific Northwest.
- Temperatures warm a couple degrees today, but return cooler Friday.
412 AM PDT Thu Aug 28 2025 Updated at 331 AM PDT Thu Aug 28 2025 - Near normal temperatures today and Friday, slightly warmer for the weekend - Quiet weather for the holiday weekend (Today and tonight) Offshore marine layer stratus is once again slow to develop early this Thursday morning.
510 AM MDT Thu Aug 28 2025 - Another cooler day with shower and isolated thunderstorm chances (50-90%).
702 AM EDT Thu Aug 28 2025 - Cold front brings some rain today - Dry and cool Labor Day Weekend - Cold front brings some rain today An upper low migrating from near James Bay to near the Ontario-NY border swings a trough axis/cold front across the central Great Lakes today.
823 AM EDT Thu Aug 28 2025 A passing cold front will bring rain showers and few isolated thunderstorms this evening through early Friday. A cold front currently moving across the Great Lakes is expected to reach eastern Ohio by late afternoon into early evening. KEY MESSAGES: - Light rain early Friday morning - Cool temperatures continue ---------------------------------------------------------------- A few light showers may linger in the ridges and along the I-80 corridor Friday morning with upslope and lake enhancement.
701 AM EDT Thu Aug 28 2025 - Cold front brings some rain today - Dry and cool Labor Fay Weekend - Cold front brings some rain today An upper low migrating from near James Bay to near the Ontario-NY border swings a trough axis/cold front across the central Great Lakes today.
Today: Widespread Showers and Locally Heavy Rain A slow-moving low-pressure system will bring widespread showers to western Montana and north-central Idaho today. While extensive cloud cover may limit overall thunderstorm development, the highest potential for these heavy downpours appears to be in a corridor from southwest Montana northward toward Missoula. Friday through the Weekend: Drying and Warming Trend The weather pattern will improve for Friday and the weekend as the storm system departs and high pressure builds.
613 AM CDT Thu Aug 28 2025 (Today through Friday) Persistent northwest flow aloft will continue today and tomorrow with longwave troughing focused along the East Coast. For today, expect mostly cloudy skies with low chances for showers to arrive across the west this afternoon which will help to moisten up the lower-levels.
654 AM EDT Thu Aug 28 2025 Expect dry and cool conditions as high pressure prevails through today. The forecast area will remain under a broad H5 trough through today, shifting to east tonight. At the sfc, weak high pressure should linger across the region today. Low temperatures are expected to range from the mid 60s inland to the low 70s along the coast. The stalled front and the developing low pressure will be the focuses for showers and thunderstorms this weekend. Many forecast details will be impacted if the low remains further offshore or makes a closer approach of the coastline.
Satellite imagery this morning showed partly to mostly cloudy conditions across SE AZ; moisture from post-tropical cyclone Juliette moving into srn CA, and considerable cloudiness over Sonora Mx that is a mix of moisture from Juliette and a decaying MCC south of Hermosillo.
650 AM EDT Thu Aug 28 2025 High pressure will be to our south today then slide to the east tonight. Upper level low pressure will drop south from Quebec on Friday then slowly cross the area this weekend.
Cooler temperatures remain areawide. Daytime temperatures will once again be strongly moderated by ongoing precipitation and areas of cloud cover, along with the beginnings of an intruding cooler airmass (behind the front). Near triple-digit heat is likely across western-north Texas within a pre-frontal thermal ridge.
623 AM CDT Thu Aug 28 2025 (Today through Friday) Upper troughing continued from eastern Canada to Florida this evening, with ridging along the lee side of the Rockies. At the surface, high pressure was centered over western Kentucky. Evening dew points were generally in the lower and middle 70s, which wasn't much different than last night.
- Scattered thunderstorms are possible north of I-20 this evening as a cold front moves into the area. - Rain chances will increase across the area Friday into the weekend, along with cooler temperatures. (This evening through Friday) A cold front will move into the Big Country this evening. Overnight lows will generally be in the low tom id 70s. The aforementioned cold front will likely be located across our central counties on Friday.
With widespread cloud cover and the deep trough across the eastern CONUS, temperatures have struggled to even get out of the 60s today across the southwestern half of the CWA.
Currently, there is weak upper-level ridging with the ridge axis over the Central and Southern Rockies, keeping our area in northwesterly flow aloft. As we move into tonight, expansive cloud cover will remain with low temperatures in the lower 60s.
Temperatures will stay on the cooler side of seasonal norms, only rising to the lower 80s.
An upper trough will swing through the mid state during the next several hours, but rain chances remain minimal owing to the dry, stable air mass that has settled across the region. Temperatures tomorrow will be slightly warmer than today, but still quite pleasant owing to a cool morning and low afternoon RH values, especially in areas west of I-65.
202 PM MDT Thu Aug 28 2025 KEY MESSAGES: - Locally dense fog may reduce visibility, especially the valleys of north-central Idaho Friday morning - Brief heavy rain in northwest Montana/Glacier NP Friday afternoon and evening The low-pressure system that brought widespread rain to the region continues its slow northward track this afternoon. High pressure will build across the region, bringing an end to the wet weather and kicking off a pronounced warming trend.
Normal high temperatures this time of year are in the middle 80s, with highs in the low/mid 70s more typical of late September/early October. Further east, this disturbance is not expected to reach the Highway 281 corridor until late evening, likely after 10 PM, with little threat for even a strong thunderstorm.
1234 PM EDT Thu Aug 28 2025 A weak, moisture-starved cold front approaches tonight into Friday bringing a chance for an isolated shower north. A reinforcing cold front will be approaching from the northwest this evening. This afternoon across the lowlands, dew point temperatures will drop very low again, likely to the lower and middle 40s. RH values will drop to the upper 20s and lower 30s by the late afternoon and early evening, before recovering tonight in the wake of the cold front. Friday will be another dry and comfortably cool day with highs ranging from the middle 70s in the mountains to the lower 80s in the lowlands.
Latest satellite imagery shows a couple of 500hpa disturbances crashing through the Rocky Mtn 500hpa ridge. Large 500hpa low/trough located across eastern CONUS with developing west coast trough also seen.
Surface observations this morning and 12z 850mb analysis indicated a north northeasterly flow advecting cooler air into southwest Kansas as an area of low pressure along a cold front tracks southward across Oklahoma. A more significant upper level trough will approach from the west on Friday afternoon, leading to increasing chances for convection across southwest Kansas.
204 PM EDT Thu Aug 28 2025 A cold front will cross the area tonight.
- Drier and gradually warmer this weekend. A ridge of high pressure returns across the Great Basin this weekend, ushering in a period of drier and warmer conditions through Labor Day.
137 PM EDT Thu Aug 28 2025 High pressure will keep us dry and cooler than normal to close out the workweek. Based of upper trough axis shifts east and more of southwest to west flow should keep a few cumulus clouds around during the day Friday with temperatures warming into the 70s in the mountains to lower 80s east, still a few degrees below normal.
Cold front near the Michigan border will track south through the area mid afternoon through early evening. Northerly post-frontal flow will usher in another round of cooler and drier air into Friday with highs struggling to reach 70F. Kept with partly cloudy wording for now given the low confidence and rather thin/shallow moisture profile.
107 PM EDT Thu Aug 28 2025 High pressure will extend across the area as a stationary front lingers well to the south and offshore. This low should progress along with the motion of the front and move offshore by Friday. The stalled front and the developing low pressure will be the focuses for showers and thunderstorms this weekend. It's still uncertain how much coverage there will be as it's very dependent on the evolution of this low.
A backdoor cold front is making slow progress southwest through the area this afternoon. Tonight, this front will separate a comfortable night in the upper 50s with light winds, from those just east of the front, where lows in the low 50s are forecast, largely due to the shallow moisture east of the front, allowing dew formation to drop temperatures lower. The focus for rainfall remains west of our area, until a strong cold front arrives towards mid week.
222 PM EDT Thu Aug 28 2025 High pressure will slide to the east tonight. Upper level low pressure will drop south from Quebec on Friday then slowly cross the area this weekend.
* Today - Friday: - High temperatures will be seasonable, with mostly mid 90s in the Valley; cooler mid to upper 80s to low 90s in the Delta.
228 PM EDT Thu Aug 28 2025 A cold front will drop southeast through the area this afternoon/evening and into the overnight KEY MESSAGES: - Precipitation chances return this afternoon/evening - Rainfall amounts will be light - Dry conditions to overcome --------------------------------------------------------------- The prefrontal conditions today will feature dry conditions as the dew point depressions are around 20 degrees in some instances and even some 30 degree differences.
102 PM PDT Thu Aug 28 2025 The upper low over the Pacific Northwest will be displaced northward as high pressure builds over the region.
Temperatures will be a few degrees warmer than yesterday with highs around 93-99 in the lower elevations and 67-73 in the higher elevations. Satellite imagery this morning showed partly to mostly cloudy conditions across SE AZ; moisture from post-tropical cyclone Juliette moving into srn CA, and considerable cloudiness over Sonora Mx that is a mix of moisture from Juliette and a decaying MCC south of Hermosillo.
(This evening through Friday night) Current upper level analysis shows longwave trough over the eastern third/half of the country and ridge centered south of West Texas. This will dig the base of trough farther south which slightly weakens the eastern edge of the ridge. Going into the evening however, surface cooling induced inversion in the low levels should limit gusty wind potential. However, coverage looks to persist into the evening and overnight hours as a backdoor frontal boundary associated with that trough to the east pushes into central LA and southern MS.
In between these is relatively diffuse flow across the Dakotas, with a stretched low and tilted trough attempting to develop across the Pacific Northwest. Not the highest confidence in anything developing but thought it was worth a mention for a few hours later today.
Cold front continues to sink south across the area this afternoon generating a healthy coverage of light to moderate showers in advance. Fairly significant cold advection follows overnight into Friday as 850mb temps fall from 8C to around 2C tied to thermal troughing dropping due south out of northern Ontario. Otherwise building high pressure keeps the rest of the region dry.
- Widespread rain chances and cooler conditions return Friday through the upcoming holiday weekend.
Highs on Friday will range in the upper-70s to low-80s, with overnight lows ranging in the low to mid-60s.
Temperatures will be a few degrees warmer than yesterday with highs around 93-99 in the lower elevations and 67-73 in the higher elevations. Now through the weekend, high pressure centered over Texas will intensify, gradually warming temperatures here in southern Arizona.
Confidence is on the low side as a result as both slower and faster scenarios are plausible. Areas in the highway 82 corridor would likely be the first to be trimmed from the "limited" flood outlook should shower and storm activity not become reinvigorated in that area later today.
Otherwise, dry conditions are expected for the holiday weekend due to the presence of the high pressure system and upper- level ridging.
Drier and warmer conditions prevail today as broad southwest flow slowly works its way into the Sierra and western Nevada. A handful of storms could pop up west of those areas, particularly for Lassen County and in Mono County along the high terrain, but the chances are 20% or less.
258 PM EDT Thu Aug 28 2025 A cold front will drop southeast through the area this afternoon/evening and into the overnight with a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Cooler temperatures will be in place through the weekend as well.
123 PM EDT Thu Aug 28 2025 - Cold front brings some rain today - Dry and cool Labor Day Weekend - Cold front brings some rain today An upper low migrating from near James Bay to near the Ontario-NY border swings a trough axis/cold front across the central Great Lakes today.
Expect a mix of clouds and sun today with highs in the low 80s for most, and upper 70s over far west and southwest areas.
253 PM CDT Thu Aug 28 2025 - There may be an isolated shower or two on Friday afternoon in the vicinity of a back door cold front moving through the area. A short wave trough is digging through the Ohio Valley into the base of the long wave. The leading edge of this high will be a back door cold front that is expected to drift from southern Wisconsin south-southwest through much of Illinois tonight. Louis, and highs in the low to mid 80s.
1228 PM EDT Thu Aug 28 2025 A weak, moisture-starved cold front approaches tonight into Friday bringing a chance for an isolated shower north. A reinforcing cold front will be approaching from the northwest this evening. This afternoon across the lowlands, dew point temperatures will drop very low again, likely to the lower and middle 40s. RH values will drop to the upper 20s and lower 30s by the late afternoon and early evening, before recovering tonight in the wake of the cold front. Friday will be another dry and comfortably cool day with highs ranging from the middle 70s in the mountains to the lower 80s in the lowlands.
337 PM EDT Thu Aug 28 2025 Rain showers and cooler air will move into the region tonight and Friday as a cold front passes through the area. High pressure with dry and progressively milder weather is expected for the upcoming weekend.
This is thanks to the ridge of high pressure slowly shifting west towards California bringing a change in the flow.
924 AM PDT Thu Aug 28 2025 Moisture from the remnants of Tropical Storm Juliette will bring more clouds and cooler high temperatures today with greater chances for showers to the south with lesser chances to the north.
1111 AM MDT Thu Aug 28 2025 - Another cooler day with shower and isolated thunderstorm chances (50-90%).
132 PM EDT Thu Aug 28 2025 High pressure will keep us dry and cooler than normal to close out the workweek. Based of upper trough axis shifts east and more of southwest to west flow should keep a few cumulus clouds around during the day Friday with temperatures warming into the 70s in the mountains to lower 80s east, still a few degrees below normal.