Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
102 AM EDT Thu Sep 25 2025 Expect showers/storms through today with cold frontal passage expected by early Friday. Although a cold front will have already moved east of the area by Friday morning, an upper trough will push through the region. Models show that as the upper trough pulls away from the region, it leaves behind a cut off low over the southeast United States. This upper low will push some moisture back into the area, allowing for chances of showers and possible a few thunderstorms Friday night through the weekend.
The cold front prompting several stormy days is forecast to move through the TN Valley during the day today.
1152 PM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025 - Cooler temperatures and dry weather late this week and this weekend. (This evening through Thursday) The cold front has moved to the south of our forecast area today. The cold front and dense cloud cover has kept temperatures around 15 to 25 degrees cooler this afternoon compared to yesterday at this time. (Friday night through next Thursday) Weak ridging aloft will prevail over the area Friday through the weekend, in advance of an upper level low developing over the Desert Southwest.
Not anticipating any widespread dense fog formation as the low level dry air will tend to offset the overall radiational cooling aspects. Expect highs to remain in the low 80s with lows in the upper 50s.
Updated at 1221 AM CDT Thu Sep 25 2025 - Cooler temperatures persist this afternoon with warmer but around seasonal normal highs expected Friday.
TODAY & TONIGHT: A quieter day ahead! Taking a look across the area, another cool start continues this morning as many areas wake up to temperatures in the low to mid 50s. From here, another warm and quiet day is ahead as light westerly to southwesterly winds along with some weak warm air advection (WAA) helps increase temperatures into the low to mid 80s for the day. Otherwise, temperatures will gradually fall into the low to mid 50s tonight for lows. THE WEEKEND ONWARDS: Looking into the weekend and beyond, upper- level ridging will continue to move into the region aloft helping us return to quasi-zonal flow aloft.
An U/L trough and associated cold front will move over north Florida on Friday with an increasing chance of showers/thunderstorms across the nature coast.
(Through Thursday) Dry conditions and clearing skies are expected through the rest of the overnight period as upper trough centered across Missouri continues to move eastward and farther away from the area. Drier air will also allow for temperatures to drop into the 50s across much of the area by sunrise, with highs today rebounding back to the low to mid 80s with mostly sunny skies.
Otherwise mostly sunny skies are expected today as high pressure stays in control of the region. A cold front sinking south tonight will bring the chance for some sprinkles this evening across north-central Wisconsin, but should otherwise track through the area fairly dry as model soundings show a dearth of moisture. Temperatures will fall modestly behind the cold front on Friday, with a robust rebound this weekend as temperatures rise solidly into the 70s with a few 80 degree readings expected across the region. High pressure will be in control of the weather through much of the upcoming week with dry weather and above normal temperatures expected across the area. Will continue to carry the lowest conditions (VLIFR/LIFR) at RHI where dense fog is expected, with TEMPO groups for some lower conditions elsewhere.
146 AM MDT Thu Sep 25 2025 - An upper-level ridge keeps the region drier today through the weekend with temperatures warming back into the 70s and 80s. Temperatures have dropped into the low-40s to low-50s across the region and will continue to drop a few more degrees over the next several hours. Mostly quiet weather expected today and Friday as an upper-level ridge moves overhead and northeasterly winds aloft slowly shift more westerly by Friday afternoon. With the ridge firmly in place, temperatures will continue to warm through the end of the week with quiet weather in place. An upper-level trough will propagate towards the region Friday morning, leading to a return of southwesterly winds aloft.
505 AM MDT Thu Sep 25 2025 - An upper-level ridge keeps the region drier today through the weekend with temperatures warming back into the 70s and 80s. Temperatures have dropped into the low-40s to low-50s across the region and will continue to drop a few more degrees over the next several hours. Mostly quiet weather expected today and Friday as an upper-level ridge moves overhead and northeasterly winds aloft slowly shift more westerly by Friday afternoon. With the ridge firmly in place, temperatures will continue to warm through the end of the week with quiet weather in place. An upper-level trough will propagate towards the region Friday morning, leading to a return of southwesterly winds aloft.
UPDATE Cold front on the move southeast having passed Hallock and just recently Grafton and Devils Lake. Cold front will make it way southeast thru the area today. Cooler airmass behind this front, with strongest cold advection in Manitoba and into northeast ND with a drop of about 7-9C in 925 mb temperatures comparing this aftn to yesterday aftn. Warmer south with highs near 80 possible along SD border before front arrives. High pressure settles in and significantly cooler tonight with lows in the 40s, near 40 in some places closer to the Intl border and NW MN cooler spots. Quick warm up though on Friday as south winds increase to 15-25 mph in the aftn out ahead of another cold front.
625 AM CDT Thu Sep 25 2025 Not much change to the overall synoptic pattern as we still expect the southern portion of a large posivively-tiled upper trough extending from southeast Canada to north Texas to swing east- southeastward and deepen with the axis reaching Alabama and the central Gulf by midnight Friday night. The trough then stalls between an upper ridge building over the Great Plains and an upper high pressure area over the Atlantic.
509 AM MDT Thu Sep 25 2025 - Warmer and drier conditions continue today before moisture increases from south to north throughout the weekend.
602 AM CDT Thu Sep 25 2025 Updated at 538 AM CDT Thu Sep 25 2025 - Cooler temperatures persist this afternoon with warmer but around seasonal normal highs expected Friday.
516 AM MDT Thu Sep 25 2025 - Warmer today, and even warmer tomorrow. Closed low over the southwest CONUS will continue to slowly push east and this southerly flow in advance of this system will continue to increase the moisture over the mountains. Overall best chance of rain this weekend will be over the San Juans, but chances of rain will increase over all of the higher terrain.
The cold front is currently back along the MS River, and will slowly make it's way to the TN Valley today. Coverage will fade with sunset, but a few showers may linger into the night as the cold front pushes out of here. Despite cloud cover, lows should be able to get into the low/mid 60s tonight.
Updated at 618 AM EDT Thu Sep 25 2025 - A cold front will bring showers and thunderstorms through the weekend. - Cooler temperatures, near seasonal normals, expected behind the cold front, starting Today. With the expected cloud cover and precip Temps today will be a lot cooler with highs mainly in the lower 80s. Areas of east central GA will still get up into the lower 80s as the front wont be able to make it that far south to hinder prime daytime heating. Day time highs Friday will se all locations in the lower to middle 80s.
559 AM CDT Thu Sep 25 2025 - Areas of fog burn off this morning, and a weak cold front could bring some sprinkles to Cook County and NW WI this afternoon.
335 AM PDT Thu Sep 25 2025 A weak dry cold front will pass over the region Today, creating conditions for locally driven downslope mountain gap winds and resultant impacts to fire weather.
An area of low pressure is expected to develop across the western Atlantic north and northwest of Hispaniola over the next couple of days. An approaching upper level trough will help to steer this system northwestward which will further weaken the pressure gradient initially.
303 AM MDT Thu Sep 25 2025 - Warmer today, and even warmer tomorrow. Closed low over the southwest CONUS will continue to slowly push east and this southerly flow in advance of this system will continue to increase the moisture over the mountains. Overall best chance of rain this weekend will be over the San Juans, but chances of rain will increase over all of the higher terrain.
757 AM EDT Thu Sep 25 2025 The upper level trough is currently over the Great Lakes region and will be slowly moving eastward through Friday.
612 AM EDT Thu Sep 25 2025 Expect showers/storms through today with cold frontal passage expected by early Friday. Although a cold front will have already moved east of the area by Friday morning, an upper trough will push through the region. Models show that as the upper trough pulls away from the region, it leaves behind a cut off low over the southeast United States. This upper low will push some moisture back into the area, allowing for chances of showers and possible a few thunderstorms Friday night through the weekend.
The morning will start off clear with light, terrain-driven winds less than 10 kts, before a dry cold front sweeps through the region this afternoon and causes an increase in winds out of the W and NW. /issued 335 AM PDT Thu Sep 25 2025/ A weak dry cold front will pass over the region Today, creating conditions for locally driven downslope mountain gap winds and resultant impacts to fire weather.
615 AM EDT Thu Sep 25 2025 (Today and tonight) The highly anticipated rainfall arrives today thanks to an approaching cold front moving across the MS Valley. High temperatures are forecast to be in the low 90s.
Otherwise mostly sunny skies are expected today as high pressure stays in control of the region. A cold front sinking south tonight will bring the chance for some sprinkles this evening across north-central Wisconsin, but should otherwise track through the area fairly dry as model soundings show a dearth of moisture. Temperatures will fall modestly behind the cold front on Friday, with a robust rebound this weekend as temperatures rise solidly into the 70s with a few 80 degree readings expected across the region. High pressure will be in control of the weather through much of the upcoming week with dry weather and above normal temperatures expected across the area. Clouds will then increase late today into tonight, especially over northern Wisconsin as a cold front brings the chance for some light sprinkles.
Cold front on the move southeast having passed Hallock and just recently Grafton and Devils Lake. Cold front will make it way southeast thru the area today. Cooler airmass behind this front, with strongest cold advection in Manitoba and into northeast ND with a drop of about 7-9C in 925 mb temperatures comparing this aftn to yesterday aftn. Warmer south with highs near 80 possible along SD border before front arrives. High pressure settles in and significantly cooler tonight with lows in the 40s, near 40 in some places closer to the Intl border and NW MN cooler spots. Quick warm up though on Friday as south winds increase to 15-25 mph in the aftn out ahead of another cold front.
304 AM MDT Thu Sep 25 2025 - Warmer and drier conditions continue today before moisture increases from south to north throughout the weekend.
533 AM CDT Thu Sep 25 2025 - Cooler temperatures and dry weather late this week and this weekend. (Friday night through next Thursday) Weak ridging aloft will prevail over the area Friday through the weekend, in advance of an upper level low developing over the Desert Southwest.
Instability will be on the low side, which is good, because shear values will be elevated. Even for those who don't see rain today, it'll be cloudy and afternoon highs will struggle to climb into the low 80s. Scattered showers and storms will continue to be possible even after the surface front moves through as the upper trough lags behind.
Expect mostly sunny skies with light northwest winds today, and highs in the lower to mid 70s. Cronce Issued 348 AM CDT Thu Sep 25 2025 Today through Friday: Areas of lingering low clouds mainly east of Madison early this morning should gradually improve by mid-morning, as low pressure pulls away to the east. Could see a similar round of fog tonight into early Friday under high pressure. Temperatures will be a little milder today than yesterday, given more sunshine expected and warmer temps aloft.
As a result high temperatures today are a few degrees cooler than yesterday, in the upper 60s to 70s across the state. High temperatures tomorrow will warm ahead of another cold front. A cold front will roll through the area tomorrow afternoon bringing forth breezy conditions across the state.
A dry cold front is starting to work into northwest WA that will eventually enter and cross the area late this afternoon. A weak dry cold front will pass over the region Today, creating conditions for locally driven downslope mountain gap winds and resultant impacts to fire weather.
This chance of a sprinkle/shower is also shown in a few of the high resolution models, namely the ARW cores and the HRRR. 12z HREF shows the highest probability of visibilities under a mile over parts of northern Iowa with those chances at 40 to 70% depending on the location. This benign pattern is being drive by a somewhat slowly evolving upper level pattern, which will see an elongated, positively tilted trough shifting eastward from the central US leaving behind a closed low over the Deep South by late this weekend. Upstream of Iowa, a ridge will be advancing towards the state through the end of the week with another closed low off the California coast that moves to the Four Corners region by the end of the weekend.
1144 AM MDT Thu Sep 25 2025 - An upper-level ridge keeps the region drier today through the weekend with temperatures warming back into the 70s and 80s. Temperatures have dropped into the low-40s to low-50s across the region and will continue to drop a few more degrees over the next several hours. Mostly quiet weather expected today and Friday as an upper-level ridge moves overhead and northeasterly winds aloft slowly shift more westerly by Friday afternoon. With the ridge firmly in place, temperatures will continue to warm through the end of the week with quiet weather in place. An upper-level trough will propagate towards the region Friday morning, leading to a return of southwesterly winds aloft.
(Rest of today and tonight) Our upper trough will be exiting to the east before an air mass change. Diurnal heating will mix our boundary layer scattering the afternoon skies with fair weather CU and warm near seasonable normal scs temperatures in the lower to mid 80s areawide. Expecting CU to dissipate after sundown clearing the night skies with light & variable winds enhancing another cooler night with 50s lows.
Pretty quiet across the region today with upper level troughing to our east now and upper level ridging building in. There was a little smoke lingering in the area, but we still had plenty of sunshine with temperatures in the lower 80s as of 2 PM. The dry and mild weather looks to persist through the next 7 days as we remain under or on the western periphery of ridging most of the period.
1232 PM CDT Thu Sep 25 2025 Not much change to the overall synoptic pattern as we still expect the southern portion of a large posivively-tiled upper trough extending from southeast Canada to north Texas to swing east- southeastward and deepen with the axis reaching Alabama and the central Gulf by midnight Friday night. The trough then stalls between an upper ridge building over the Great Plains and an upper high pressure area over the Atlantic.
Mid-level ridging centered over Mexico then slowly nudges eastward from Friday into Friday night.
Updated at 135 PM EDT Thu Sep 25 2025 - A cold front will bring showers and thunderstorms through the weekend. - Cooler temperatures, near seasonal normals, expected behind the cold front, starting Today. With the expected cloud cover and precip Temps today will be a lot cooler with highs mainly in the lower 80s. Areas of east central GA will still get up into the lower 80s as the front wont be able to make it that far south to hinder prime daytime heating. Day time highs Friday will se all locations in the lower to middle 80s.
Temperatures are also a few degrees warmer than this time yesterday due to the ample sunshine. A 500mb ridge will continue to slide east over the central CONUS to end the week with highs in the upper 70s east to mid 80s across western Minnesota.
The upper-level weather pattern to end this work week will feature a closed low pressure system cutting off near the Baja Peninsula, a low closing off from a positively tilted trough over the Southeast U.
Low level moisture will pool ahead of a weak cold front dropping south into the area overnight. This looks to be the last night with widespread fog chances as drier air in the lower levels will gradually move into the region behind the "cold" front. A trough axis, currently extending from Michigan to the Southern Plains, will pivot eastward into tomorrow, creating a weak cutoff low in its wake. Upper level ridging is expected to build through the weekend between the aforementioned cutoff low and a second cutoff low across the Northern Baja California region.
This will aid in the development of showers and thunderstorms ahead of the cold front that is slowly sliding eastward today. Convection will mainly decrease with sunset, but a few showers may linger into the night as the cold front finishes pushing through. Despite cloud cover, with ceilings that could be ~1kft or lower at times late tonight, lows should be able to get into the lower 60s tonight.
242 PM EDT Thu Sep 25 2025 The upper level trough is currently over the Great Lakes region and will be slowly moving eastward through Friday.
Issued 237 PM CDT Thu Sep 25 2025 Tonight through Friday night: Clear skies, high pressure, and lows dropping toward the dewpoint values tonight will allow for areas of dense, shallow fog again. A weak surface cold front is expected to reach Sheboygan around 10 AM, Milwaukee around 12 PM, and Kenosha by 3 PM. The timeline may accelerate with this back door cold front, rushing down the lake quicker than inland areas. The steep low level lapse rates behind this cold front should give us an area of low clouds along and behind the front for the afternoon and evening, and possibly through the night. High temps tomorrow will be impacted by the front and these associated clouds, with lakeshore temps only in the lower 70s and southwest WI temps in the upper 70s.
The combination of light winds and mainly clear skies under this high will likely again foster fog towards daybreak Friday morning as temperatures drop below the cross over temperature. Thereafter, expect a dry and unseasonably mild day Friday, with highs topping out in the upper 70s to the low 80s. A weak mid- level impulse and surface cold front will shift into far northern IL late in the day. While no precipitation is expected with this feature, a northeasterly wind shift a push of a bit cooler temperatures (upper 60s to the low 70s) are expected by early Friday evening.
1127 AM MDT Thu Sep 25 2025 - Warmer and drier conditions continue today before moisture increases from south to north throughout the weekend.
(Friday night through next Thursday) Weak ridging aloft will prevail over the area Friday through the weekend, in advance of an upper level low developing over the Desert Southwest.
An area of low pressure is expected to develop across the western Atlantic north and northwest of Hispaniola over the next couple of days. An approaching upper level trough will help to steer this system northwestward which will further weaken the pressure gradient initially. The aforementioned high pressure system will maintain control across the Keys for a couple more days. An upper level trough is expected to move into the Gulf beginning Friday night.
135 PM EDT Thu Sep 25 2025 A surface cold front will slowly push south into the region late tonight and Friday. This occurs while low pressure in the mid and upper levels becomes nearly stationary over the southern Appalachians and TN Valley this weekend. The boundary depicted the cloudy skies and cooler temperatures in the west from the sunny and hot conditions in the east. This occurs as the low pressure in the mid levels to our west over the TN Valley starts to close off. Overall, expect mostly cloudy skies and cooler highs in the upper 70s NW to mid 80s SE.
1158 AM CDT Thu Sep 25 2025 - Areas of fog burn off this morning, and a weak cold front could bring some sprinkles to Cook County and NW WI this afternoon.
(This evening through Friday) Organized showers and thunderstorms will remain in the forecast for much of the short-term, as the deep trough moving through the region starts to become closed off. As a whole, this new closed low won't effect the forecast too much, but it could result in more organized rain chances lingering through the weekend.
1125 AM MDT Thu Sep 25 2025 - Warmer today, and even warmer tomorrow. Closed low over the southwest CONUS will continue to slowly push east and this southerly flow in advance of this system will continue to increase the moisture over the mountains. Overall best chance of rain this weekend will be over the San Juans, but chances of rain will increase over all of the higher terrain.
1206 PM CDT Thu Sep 25 2025 - Cooler temperatures and dry weather late this week and this weekend. (Friday night through next Thursday) Weak ridging aloft will prevail over the area Friday through the weekend, in advance of an upper level low developing over the Desert Southwest.
349 PM EDT Thu Sep 25 2025 - A cold front brings isolated rain showers to the western half this evening. Visible satellite shows mostly sunny skies across Upper Michigan this afternoon beneath transient upper level ridging as low pressure slowly departs to the south and east. Looking upstream, a cold front extends southwest into the MN Arrowhead from a deep low over Hudson Bay, and this feature is poised to move across the Lake Superior and the UP tonight. Expect overnight lows to be a bit warmer than last night as broken mid level cloud cover accompanies the frontal passage.
We are watching a cold front, whose leading edge is currently located in the lower Valley, continue to linger through this evening before finally moving south out of the area overnight/early Friday morning.
Currently, the upper level trough is exiting the region to the east as an upper ridge builds in over the Plains from the west. At the surface, high pressure has settled over the area behind the frontal boundary. The upper level ridge will dominate our pattern for the rest of the forecast time frame.
(Rest of today through Friday) A positively-tilted trough is currently stretched from Texas through the Great Lakes region and is making a slow eastward progression. The aforementioned vort max to our west is progged to separate from the overall trough axis tomorrow, becoming a cut-off low that will linger in the region for a couple of days. Friday will be a great weather day overall with highs in the low 80s for the rain- free areas west of the Appalachians.
152 PM MDT Thu Sep 25 2025 KEY MESSAGES: - Windy day Friday in wake of a cold front.
- Cold front arrives later today with drier and slightly cooler air behind the front.
302 PM EDT Thu Sep 25 2025 The upper level trough over the Great Lakes region will slowly departs to the east through Friday. Ridging will begin to build over the Great Plains as high pressure moves into the region late Friday.