Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Elsewhere, isolated development is forecast as temperatures rise into the lower 90s with additional humidity to factor in. Following another mild night in the 60s as winds diminish overall, the upper trough axis will lift to the north and east, keeping our area mostly dry, except for a few isolated to scattered showers and storms during the afternoon on Tuesday. Surface ridging will broaden westward from the southwest Atlantic, keeping much of the central Gulf Coast dry and hot. Temperatures could be a degree or so warmer overall, topping out in the lower 90s with a few pockets of mid 90s.
Otherwise, another warmer than normal night is expected. However, the western periphery of a low level ridge will main enough influence to keep showers and storms more in the isolated/summertime variety across most of our area through Tuesday. Midweek: The pattern will begin to shift beginning late Tuesday as an upper trough builds from the Great Lakes region into the Mid- MS Valley and Southern Rockies.
High pressure, dry conditions expected early this week before turning hot through mid-week. Overnight lows in the low to mid 60s are expected.
725 PM EDT Mon Sep 22 2025 - Scattered Showers/Storms Much of This Week - Dry Weather Likely for the Weekend - Scattered Showers/Storms Much of This Week An upper trough located across WI into the U.
A surface through lower level Atlantic ridge extends westward across Florida and is producing mostly gentle east to southeasterly breezes across the Keys and surrounding waters this evening. An old lower level trough has washed out across our area, leaving behind a moisture rich swath. Ridging will continue to dominate through the overnight period. Along with this, some warming and drying is expected through the lower levels late.
KEY MESSAGES: - Probabilities remain elevated for rain on Tuesday/Wednesday ---------------------------------------------------------------- Confidence remains high that rain chances will persist Tuesday into Wednesday as a trough lingers over the Ohio River Valley. With continuing southwest flow, as the trough axis remains positioned west of the region, probability of measurable rainfall is above 70%.
240 AM EDT Tue Sep 23 2025 A slow moving trough of low pressure will bring beneficial rain to the region through mid-week, with several rounds of showers and scattered thunderstorms. Another low pressure system will move into the Great Lakes late in the week, with additional rain chances in an unsettled pattern. An upper level low will spin over the Upper Great Lakes through tonight. Weak ridging will move into the forecast area tonight. Higher confidence of fog development is across the higher terrain and southeast of Lake Ontario. A closed low over the upper Great Lakes will ever so slowly churn east and southeast towards the region.
The same pattern is expected to dominate through the rest of the week as an upper level rough occludes over the Great Lakes, resulting in northerly flow aloft and weak surface winds with the precipitation shield around the low remaining over the eastern Great Lakes and eastern coast of the US.
207 AM EDT Tue Sep 23 2025 High pressure, dry conditions, and hot temperatures expected through mid-week. Rain chances will then be on the increase as a cold front approaches by the end of the week. Cooler temperatures return then behind the cold front. Upper ridging to the west will slowly shift towards the area leading to rising 500mb heights. Deep trough moving into the lower Mississippi River Valley region on Wednesday will bring a southwesterly wind pattern into the forecast area.
Closer to the low along the high peaks of the Park Range and the Gores, a few inches of snow will accumulate. A heavily tilted trough and decaying frontal boundary stretching from the Four Corners to the Plains will stick around Tuesday.
Closed upper level low hanging over lake Superior in the overnight while associated trough axis hangs westward across northern MN. NAM/GFS/EC all slowly sink this tandem south over the next couple days, eventually nudging east Thu afternoon as an upper level ridge starts to push over the plains.
1150 PM MDT Mon Sep 22 2025 -Breezy northerly winds and showers/storms across the area tonight -Dry with temperatures at or above normal the rest of the week Upper air analysis shows a broad trough across the northern Plains into the WY Rockies, swinging southeastward into the central Plains. The cold front will slide southward across the CWA this evening as the upper low swings into northern CO/western Neb tonight. Strong upper ridging centered over the western CONUS will build into the central Plains. With today's upper low moving into the eastern CONUS and another upper low near then central CA coast, an omega block will set up.
At the surface, weak high pressure is over the northeast Gulf and western Atlantic. Convection today and tomorrow will be sea-breeze driven during the afternoon and early evening hours, with the highest PoPs focused over interior and SW FL, although with the easterly flow fairly weak, portions of the east coast metro will be in play early to mid afternoon before the focus shifts into the interior late afternoon into the early.
From here, much quieter conditions should return as temperatures peak in the low to upper 70s for the day. Looking aloft, could see a spotty shower or two this evening as pieces of lift rotate into the area on the backside of a positively tilted trough. WEDNESDAY ONWARDS: Looking into the midweek and beyond, quieter conditions likely return by Wednesday as the previously mentioned trough is replaced by a building ridge. Not only will this ridge keep any precipitation chances at bay into the weekend, but also reset our overall pattern.
The overall pattern looks to be that of a blocking pattern, reminiscent of an Omega block, though it won't be particularly long lived. The ridge over our area gets squeezed between a low off the southern California coast and a low digging down through the central Plains.
This cold front will progress slowly southeastward through the forecast area today. With, cloudy and stormy conditions expected today, highs will remain in the low to mid 70s. As we move into tonight, the cold front will sink south of the area, however, the northern energy of an elongated upper trough extending from the Great lakes into the Central Plains will move through the region as a closed low develops in the base over the western Kansas. Tomorrow, the closed low over western Kansas will progress slowly eastward over Kansas during the morning before becoming an open wave which will move through the local area Wednesday afternoon. This will continue the chance (20%-40%) of showers and a few storms over the area on Wednesday with highs in the lower 70s.
500 mb pattern shows an upper low over the central Rockies and instability and moisture tied to the central Plains into Ohio valley. This jet will remain in that area the next few days as a flat 500 mb ridge builds east thru southern Canada from southern Alberta into Ontario. Even within the west-east ridge aloft there are a few weak suface systems that will move through, providing some wind shifts.
The combination of abundant moisture, daytime heating and the approach of a cold front will maintain unsettled weather across Deep South Texas through the period. A cold front will move into central Texas on Wednesday.
Weak ridging is expected to build over the region today and Wednesday. An unsettled weather pattern is expected to set up after Wednesday as an upper level low off the California Coast shift east into the Desert Southwest.
A cold front will cross on Wednesday renewing the chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Temps will be a little cooler today behind the front, with highs in the lows to mid 70s most places. Latest models suggest an increase in low cloud coverage tonight, as a cooler airmass settles in from the north.
For today through this evening, modest strengthening of the southeast CONUS ridge will tend to deflect the more favorable convective environment currently supporting considerable shower and thunderstorm coverage well to our north, and this will keep the forecast area mostly free of convective rainfall.
Dense fog is the main concern the next few days as a ridge of high pressure settles into the forecast area through Wednesday.
- Unseasonably cooler temperatures will accompany this rainfall Tuesday and Wednesday but a period of warmer and very dry conditions can be expected for the next 7-10 days.
For today through this evening, modest strengthening of the southeast CONUS ridge will tend to deflect the more favorable convective environment currently supporting considerable shower and thunderstorm coverage well to our north, and this will keep the forecast area free of convective rainfall.
A large area of troughing from Utah to the western Great Lakes will continue to keep us in a fairly wet pattern, for the first time in weeks, over the next 2-3 days.
Pattern Synopsis and Forecast: Slow meandering upper low will continue to plague the region with shower chances today. The center slightly drifts/retrogrades to the south and southwest today and tonight, with the upper low position moving from approximately just north of the SOO to the ~Straits or so tonight. Primary Forecast Concerns: Showers/thunderstorms: Slow meandering upper low continues to plague the region with shower and storm chances today. Best locations for showers and storms will be close to the upper low center and across northeast lower. Thus these locations will feature the highest POPs and thunderstorm chances.
A cold front will begin to approach the Big Country by the late afternoon/evening hours.
Quiet weather pattern continues as a high pressure ridge remains centered over the PacNW. Only thing to really note from this pattern is the development of a thermal trough along the foothills of the Cascades, which will coincide with low RHs in the lower teens across central Oregon. But in the absence of breezy winds under this ridge pattern, and with wildfire activity in the area minimal, not expecting critical conditions to materialize either today or tomorrow. Temps under this ridge will peak on Wednesday, with highs well into the 80s, possibly 90 in central Oregon and the Gorge (confidence 20-30%) due to the aforementioned thermal trough.
1257 AM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025 The combination of abundant moisture, daytime heating and the approach of a cold front will maintain unsettled weather across Deep South Texas through the period. A cold front will move into central Texas on Wednesday.
Behind this round of convection a cold front will push slowly south and east through the day, likely positioned near or just southeast of the I-44 corridor by peak heating. This will serve as a focus for additional thunderstorm development this afternoon, with the highest chances across southeast and south-central Oklahoma, where large hail and damaging wind gusts will once again be a possibility. The severe threat is expected to wane as we head into this evening, but shower and thunderstorm chances will continue across southern Oklahoma and western north TX into the overnight hours as forcing from the main trough overspreads the area.
The forecast for the rest of the week into the weekend is warm (upper 70s and 80s) and dry as upper level ridging builds over the region.
- Drier air and slightly cooler temperatures prevail into the end of the week behind the front. But mid/upper ridging appears a little less stout for today. The LL atmosphere remains PWAT rich as a deep-layer trough digs southward, providing synoptic lift and gradually increasing shear. Meanwhile, a cold front pushes southward, enhancing LL convergence.
219 AM MDT Tue Sep 23 2025 - Dry and mild/warm 08z surface analysis had low over eastern NE with secondary cold front into southeastern WY. High pressure building over western WY/much of MT. Today/tonight, UT upper low sinks south as it absorbed into mean upper trough of the eastern CONUS. Upper ridge builds from the Rockies into the northern Plains.
Smoke from surface to ~10kft MSL will continue to reduce visibility (6-10SM) over E/SE Oregon, the lower Treasure Valley and west-central Idaho mountains through 18Z Tuesday. A ridge continues to build into the region later today with a warming trend into Wednesday. Elsewhere, breezy southeast winds mainly on the ridgetops during the day with light winds at night.
The vorticity max will be collected into a larger positively-tilted trough with a focus more along the southern stream jet max in the Central Plains and mid Mississippi Valley. Northern/northeast flow will advect in cooler, dry air with 850mb temperatures sinking below +10C.
An upper-level trough situated over Lake Superior will prog slowly to the northeast over the next several hours. Which will also maintain chances for overnight fog as temperatures fall to dew points with efficient radiation cooling and a lack of surface winds under high pressure. Because of weak low-to-mid flow, the low stratus may hang on until late morning, followed by VFR conditions into the afternoon and evening.
Very weak troughing in northwest Ontario drops southward this afternoon into the Borderlands.
There is currently a positivily-tilted upper-level trough that stretches over SD while a ridge is starting to build over western SD. This trough is moving southeastward today and Wednesday, and should move out of SD by Wednesday afternoon. This higher pressure will help to keep rain out of central and eastern SD for today and Wednesday. During these days, temperatures will stay relatively similar, with highs in the mid to upper 70s and lows in the low 50s.
223 AM EDT Tue Sep 23 2025 - Scattered Showers/Storms Much of This Week - Dry Weather Likely for the Weekend - Scattered Showers/Storms Much of This Week An upper trough located across WI into the U.
Highs this afternoon are expected to range from the middle to upper 60s across north- central Wisconsin, to the lower 70s across central Wisconsin. The upper low will sink south across the central Great Lakes on Wednesday, as the region remains in cyclonic flow.
High pressure continue to build over the region today, which has resulted in nearly clear skies. Tonight through Wednesday: Upper level ridging will build back over the region today and persist overhead through Wednesday. Wednesday, a surface thermal trough will cross the Cascade crest as the upper ridge axis migrates east, which may produce increased fire activity on any new fires that develop between and Wednesday afternoon.
As the nocturnal low-level jet strengthens east of a trough moving out of the High Plains, strong moisture transport surges into eastern KS and west-central to southwestern MO. By Wednesday evening, as the upper trough axis pushes south of the area, precipitation chances will come to an end. For late in the forecast period, temperatures trend back to above normal as the western upper ridge builds back over the middle of the country.
- A Freeze Warning is in effect from 5AM to 10AM this morning for below freezing temperatures across the western valleys and southern Lincoln County near Cokeville. As the low makes its southeastward shift through early morning hours, low-level high pressure shifts in and cloud cover is forecast to diminish across the west.
The most significant severe weather will be well to our northeast across eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas near triple point low pressure system. Otherwise, look for hot temperatures today then much cooler weather for Wednesday. Highs on Wednesday will be in the upper 70s to mid 80s(cold front south of our area) thanks to rainfall and low clouds hanging around for much of the day.
635 AM EDT Tue Sep 23 2025 High pressure, dry conditions, and hot temperatures expected through mid-week. Rain chances will then be on the increase as a cold front approaches by the end of the week. Cooler temperatures return then behind the cold front. Upper ridging to the west will slowly shift towards the area leading to rising 500mb heights. Deep trough moving into the lower Mississippi River Valley region on Wednesday will bring a southwesterly wind pattern into the forecast area.
Cold frontal boundary will continue passing through the state early this morning. For the remainder of the workweek, lowly amplified ridging pattern will prevail resulting in seasonably warm and dry conditions. Or rather, highs mostly in the 70s, with a few readings in the low 80s at times.
1015 AM EDT Tue Sep 23 2025 A slow moving trough of low pressure will bring beneficial rain to the region through mid-week, with several rounds of showers and scattered thunderstorms. Another low pressure system will move into the Great Lakes late in the week, with additional rain chances in an unsettled pattern. An upper level low will spin over the Upper Great Lakes through tonight. Weak ridging will move into the forecast area tonight. Higher confidence of fog development is across the higher terrain and southeast of Lake Ontario. A closed low over the upper Great Lakes will ever so slowly churn east and southeast towards the region.
- Enjoy cooler temperatures today with highs in the 70s.
639 AM EDT Tue Sep 23 2025 A slow moving trough of low pressure will bring beneficial rain to the region through mid-week, with several rounds of showers and scattered thunderstorms. Another low pressure system will move into the Great Lakes late in the week, with additional rain chances in an unsettled pattern. An upper level low will spin over the Upper Great Lakes through tonight. Weak ridging will move into the forecast area tonight. Higher confidence of fog development is across the higher terrain and southeast of Lake Ontario. A closed low over the upper Great Lakes will ever so slowly churn east and southeast towards the region.
Conditions will trend drier and warmer across Western Washington through midweek. Light winds under high pressure may bring the return of smoke aloft at times from area fires.
Pattern Synopsis and Forecast: Slow meandering upper low will continue to plague the region with shower chances today. The center slightly drifts/retrogrades to the south and southwest today and tonight, with the upper low position moving from approximately just north of the SOO to the ~Straits or so tonight. Primary Forecast Concerns: Showers/thunderstorms: Slow meandering upper low continues to plague the region with shower and storm chances today. Best locations for showers and storms will be close to the upper low center and across southeast portions of the county warning area. Thus these locations will feature the highest POPs and thunderstorm chances, although some of the latest guidance really keeps the rain chances quite low today so we'll see.
619 AM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025 The combination of abundant moisture, daytime heating and the approach of a cold front will maintain unsettled weather across Deep South Texas through the period. A cold front will move into central Texas on Wednesday.
- Weak offshore flow through Tuesday in the higher terrain. Skies will be mostly sunny throughout the day, but clouds will start to infiltrate later in the afternoon or evening as low pressure approaches the region.
521 AM MDT Tue Sep 23 2025 - Dry and mild/warm 08z surface analysis had low over eastern NE with secondary cold front into southeastern WY. High pressure building over western WY/much of MT. Today/tonight, UT upper low sinks south as it absorbed into mean upper trough of the eastern CONUS. Upper ridge builds from the Rockies into the northern Plains.
Otherwise, most areas stay dry today with afternoon highs topping out in the lower to middle 90's. Our primary attention turns to upper troughing across the central U.
The cold front is south of the Panhandles at this time and cooler air will settle in today with highs 10-15 degrees cooler than yesterday. Went ahead and blended in some cooler guidance to the forecast highs for today, which resulted in only minor decreases across the area.
Cooler highs expected tomorrow. Warmer days forecast for the rest of the week. A secondary wave of cold air will move in later tonight and reinforce cooler temperatures tomorrow. Before the front arrives, showers and a few thunderstorms are forecast to move eastward off the high terrain.
The vorticity max will be collected into a larger positively-tilted trough with a focus more along the southern stream jet max in the Central Plains and mid Mississippi Valley. Northern/northeast flow will advect in cooler, dry air with 850mb temperatures sinking below +10C. High pressure will attempt to build in overnight.
In the wake of the MCS, a warm front was situated from northern AR through southwest TN into northern AL. Temperatures have warmed into the lower to middle 80s with dew points in the lower 70s southwest of the front from the Shoals through Cullman and Gadsden.
1111 AM MDT Tue Sep 23 2025 - Dry and mild/warm 08z surface analysis had low over eastern NE with secondary cold front into southeastern WY. High pressure building over western WY/much of MT. Today/tonight, UT upper low sinks south as it absorbed into mean upper trough of the eastern CONUS. Upper ridge builds from the Rockies into the northern Plains.
928 AM PDT Tue Sep 23 2025 Warmer today with temperatures reaching the mid nineties in portions of the inland valleys. Low pressure moving into central and then southern California will bring cooling for Wednesday through the end of the week.
The upper-level weather pattern for much of this week will see the subtropical ridge suppressed to the south with broad and positively tilted trough over much of the central and eastern CONUS.
Temperatures range from the lower to upper 70s with ABR in the lower 80s with dewpoints in the mid to upper 50s.
Highs should generally be in the low 70s, though places that have encountered sunshine already this morning (central and southwest WI) may end up with highs in the mid 70s. Temps will be a little cooler today behind the front, with highs in the lows to mid 70s most places. Latest models suggest an increase in low cloud coverage tonight, as a cooler airmass settles in from the north.
A 500 mb vort max over Colorado associated with a broad trough will bring more periods of active weather across the FA through Wednesday. As a amplified longwave trough approaches from the west Wednesday and provides robust PVA, one final round of showers and storms will be possible Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday evening, posing another marginal risk of severe storms over southwest Indiana and western Kentucky.
High pressure will then control the remainder of the forecast period bringing dry conditions along with generally above normal temperatures.
GOES water vapor imagery and RAP 500 mb analyses indicated broad mid- level troughing over the Great Lakes with embedded troughs extending from the central Rockies into the Ohio Valley. Over the next 24-48 hours, the higher rain chances will be focused south across the Mid- Mississippi to Ohio Valleys along a surface wave, but an isolated shower/sprinkle cannot be ruled out (<20% chance) as troughing persists over the area. Areas of clouds may remain stubborn through the day on Wednesday under the influence of the trough/cooler air aloft.
242 PM EDT Tue Sep 23 2025 A slow moving trough of low pressure will bring beneficial rain to the region through mid-week, with several rounds of showers and scattered thunderstorms. Another low pressure system will move into the Great Lakes late in the week, with additional rain chances in an unsettled pattern. Any shower activity will fade this evening, as weak ridging arrives. The Niagara Frontier has the lowest chance for dense fog, but even there some fog is likely. Wednesday looks largely dry, as weak high pressure remains across the region. A secondary closed circulation rotating out of the Rockies/southern Plains will phase with the closed low over the upper Great Lakes by Wednesday night.