Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
The bigger picture today features an upper low digging south across the northern Great Plains this morning to the Ozarks by sunset well east of a longwave ridge spanning the Intermountain West. Accompanying the upper low is a healthy mid and upper jet core along with a weak cold front that should reach our Panhandle counties by mid/late afternoon before clearing our southern zones after sunset. Temps were kept a bit cooler in those areas that saw heavy rainfall last weekend. Other than a few passing high clouds overnight, ample radiational cooling on dry and light north winds will favor lows in the low to mid 50s for many areas.
- Rain chances return Tuesday/Tuesday night (30-50%) with next cold front.
343 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 Through tonight: A cold front is currently making rather slow progress into the region and will continue to do so through tonight. Tonight, a more vigorous upper disturbance is on track to move across the area as it rounds a cutoff upper low pivoting into the Mid-Mississippi Valley. Cooler and somewhat drier air will begin to move in from the north tonight behind the front, with airmass change becoming more noticeable in the following days.
Around 12Z today, the low pressure system bringing some sprinkles to the eastern CWA will be exiting the region, by 15Z, any lingering sprinkles will have ceased. Then, a high pressure system will be moving into the region, clearing out the skies and giving us northerly flow through most of the column.
1222 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 - 20% chance of light showers or sprinkles overnight tonight as a cold front moves from the northwest to southeast. - Highs this week will generally range in the mid to upper 70s with a chance to reach the low 80s by the end of the week.
- Dry and warm conditions are expected during the remainder of the week as high pressure settles over the region.
1226 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 (This evening through Tuesday) An upper level trough axis is currently swinging through our area as showers and storms across the NW Hill Country continue to weaken and push east early this afternoon. Members of the 12Z HREF continue to differ on the amount of development and time of initiation so have capped PoPs in the low-end chance category. Elsewhere, with increased cloud cover and rain chances, temperatures will hold in the lower to mid 80s.
/86/ The forecast for the remainder of the day into tomorrow remains on track: high pressure/heights continue to dominate and is projected to keep our weather benign, mostly clear, breezy, yet our temperatures are expected to trend several degrees warmer than seasonal.
1233 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 (Tonight through Tuesday night) The major player for the short term forecast will the elongated mid- level ridge over Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley. As for temperatures, the highs temperatures for tomorrow are expected to be around the mid 90s. The low temperatures for tonight and tomorrow are expected to be in the 70s.
To start the period, a broad longwave trough is centered over the Upper Midwest. As the previously mentioned trough deepens this afternoon, isolated showers and thunderstorms appear likely across the Davis Mountains and Stockton Plateau with the aid of upslope flow. With the deepening trough transitioning to a cutoff-low to our east, a weak cold front pushes through the area Tuesday night. On the bright side, after a cool morning in the upper 50s and low 60s, temperatures remain cooler during the afternoon, mainly in the middle 80s under sunny skies.
(Today through Wednesday) An elongated mid-level ridge is expected to remain in place over Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley today. A 500mb trough/low will dig southward into the Middle Mississippi River Valley on Wednesday and push the associated cold front into south Texas. In addition, Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine should strengthen to a tropical depression or storm as it enters the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Highs today and Wednesday are expected to be in the low to mid 90s, except for the 80s along the coast. The low temperatures for tonight will fall into the 70s, except around 80 for the beaches.
Dry weather will continue into Wednesday morning with afternoon temperatures peaking out to well above normal values Tuesday for the interior westside valleys as the thermal trough moves inland. Meanwhile weak onshore flow will result in cooler afternoon temperatures at Brookings.
(Today) Shrtwv upper trough is currently traversing NE thru the Midwest/OH Valley regions, as a deeper trough pattern dives southward thru the Plains states. Otherwise, as the stronger trough axis digs thru the Plains states and into the Midwest region, a weak cold front is expected to approach the area from the NW.
In addition to losing the instability, a large upper level wave will crash over the trough, which will lead to subsidence so showers should dry up by the time they reach eastern MN and western WI.
A few rumbles of thunder will be possible overnight before a secondary round of showers and storms develops along a cold front midday Tuesday.
1150 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 (Tonight through Tuesday night) Presently there is a broad upper ridge over the GoM / Gulf Coast States, a trough taking shape across the Central to Southern Plains, and a cold front curved from S MO through Ctrl TX. Over the next 24H, we will see the upper ridge shoot off to the Atlantic coast of FL as what is now PTC#9 moves north into the GoM and the front descends further south.
UPDATE High-based showers continue to move across the area behind a trough. Upper trough digging into the Dakotas this afternoon will continue into MN tonight, eventually amplifying over the upper midwest tomorrow. The only reports have been a few hundredths of an inch of rain, so impacts are very minimal as the trough swings through this evening and skies begin to clear out later tonight. Upper ridging over the Rockies will begin to move eastward into the Plains by mid-weak, eventually setting up a blocking pattern with high heights across the Plains into the Great Lakes, jet over Canada, and cut off low well to our south. Could push above the 80 mark again in some spots, but will depend on clouds and exactly how much the ridge builds over the central CONUS.
Showers and a few thunderstorms are possible today as a cold front slowly moves across the region.
1150 PM EDT Mon Sep 23 2024 High pressure will remain over the Maritimes today through Wednesday.
110 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 (Tonight through Tuesday night) An upper level trough in the middle of the country has pushed the subtropical ridge to the south and the 500mb flow is from the west- southwest. A surface cold front has made it into our northern area and is stretched from Temple to Rocksprings to the Big Bend. The upper trough will push a little farther south tonight adding better lift near the surface boundary. The upper trough will dig farther southeast Tuesday night and there will be lingering low chances for rain across our CWA. Temperatures will be divided by the front with cooler temperatures to the north and warmer to the south.
251 AM MDT Tue Sep 24 2024 KEY MESSAGES: - A warm up to the 80s/low 90s for Wednesday then stepping cooler through the weekend. WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Progressive upper ridge will move into the Northern Rockies Tuesday, then into the northern Plains Wednesday.
Aloft, a highly amplified upper lvl pattern wl be in place acrs the CONUS w/ strong ridging building over the Cont Divide, and robust troughing staying rooted over the Cntrl US. Thru the day Tues and into Wed, guidance remains consistent on a lobe of this upper trof bcmg detached fm the mean flow, resulting in a cutoff low centered over the FA and greater Mid-South. Temps acrs the FA wl trend downwards towards more normal values Tues into Wed, w/ aftn readings in the mid 70s to low 80s, and overnight lows dipping into the low 50s acrs Nrn to N/Wrn AR, and low to mid 60s noted elsewhere.
Locations behind the stalled front will experience slightly cooler lows as temperatures dip into the mid to upper 60s. Wednesday's temperatures will be a few degrees cooler in the NW portion of the area as the front sags further into SE Texas and N/NE winds bring in cooler air.
Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine is forecast to continue to develop and strengthen over the northwest Caribbean in the next 48 hours, moving north into the eastern Gulf of Mexico mid week.
This upper level trough will continue to dig into the MS River valley, while 500mb height rises climb across the central Rockies today.
These showers have been the result of the pressure gradient tightening up between a ridge located across the southeast U. and Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine. This is in response to a high pressure building along the Eastern Seaboard, and PTC 9 in the northwestern Caribbean Sea.
258 AM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024 A wave of low pressure will bring showers and thunderstorms to the Ohio Valley today.
237 AM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024 A wave of low pressure will bring showers and thunderstorms to the Ohio Valley tonight and Tuesday.
A few showers or storms will linger tonight as deep southwest flow develops ahead of an approaching trough.
Across the CWA this afternoon, skies are sunny as high pressure transitions through the area. Other than this, high pressure will dominate the area for dry weather. For temps, a range from the upper 70s into the lower 80s will persist in the short term period, especially around midweek. As we move into the weekend, a broad ridge will extend across the Central to SW portions of North America in a semi-omega pattern. Both the GFS and ECMWF favor cut-off or closed lows developing on the southern ends of upper troughs that will pinch the side of the ridge closer over the Rockies and Great Plains. There is a cutoff system that sets up over the lower Mississippi River Valley.
An upper level trough moves through the Northern Plains and dives southeast into the central plains and then moving into the Appalachian territories. This creates an amplified ridging pattern over the Northern Plains for the remainder of the week giving us above average temperatures starting Wednesday. The upper level trough departs today and starts to dive southeast through Minnesota and cuts off from the flow over the Central Plains. This creates a blocking pattern for the US and leaves the Northern Plains in an amplified ridging pattern. With the area of high pressure over us (the amplified ridge)we will likely get pretty cool at night due to clearer skies and efficient cooling. With the cutoff Low to our southeast our moisture feed that common with a ridging pattern will probably be disrupted leaving us pretty dry for the next few days.
Outstanding directional shear in the low-levels exists in the vicinity of the low's triple point, paired with low LCLs near 500m. As the trough aloft deepens this morning, this upper-level wind field will increase, enhancing lift and promoting additional shower development.
Dry and warmer. High pressure will push temperatures back to well above normal levels this week and through the weekend. Summer is back for a second round this week into the weekend as strong ridging is going to dominate our weather. Ensembles show this ridge building over the upcoming days between two troughs over the eastern Pacific and Mississippi Valley. This ridge will have only minor variations in movement for the next 7 to 10 days which means our main weather story is turning to late season heat.
A stought area of high pressure builds over the Southern U. High Plains today into tonight and extends a high-amplitude blocking ridge from the low to mid-levels. A persistent strong area of low pressure over the Deep South though could create light northerly to northeasterly flow over northwest Wisconsin this weekend, depending on the track of the low and how much the ridge flattens out.
A cold front continues to push through the forecast area early this morning. An upper level low pressure system will push southeast of the area through the middle of this week. The low will become vertically stacked, slow down, and separate from the current jet stream mainly residing across Canada. With this low off to the southeast, upper level ridging will be squeezed overhead between the low and the jet stream.
(Tuesday through Wednesday Night) A wet and unsettled pattern is expected to begin by Tuesday as a deep, upper trough digs towards the Southeastern US. Additionally, a surface cold front is forecast to approach the Tennessee Valley on Tuesday, then eventually slow and stall over our west or just to our west by midweek. Taking a look at the low chance of severe weather on Tuesday, guidance suggests that instability and bulk shear are the greatest along and west of I-65 during the day on Tuesday but may shift towards the east into the evening hours. Low temperatures will follow a similar trend, falling into the lower to mid 60s by Wednesday night.
Discussion: A strong upper trough is diving down across the heart of the country, strengthening the upper level flow across the Tennessee Kentucky region. Midlevel lapse rates still aren't overly impressive, and so severe hail seems very unlikely, especially with freezing heights 12-14k feet above the ground. The eastward progression of the upper low will come to a halt Tuesday night into Wednesday, and with that halt, the approaching cold front will stall out.
This shower activity is expected to diminish through mid morning, making for another day of great late September weather with highs in the low 70s. Temperatures are on track to warm through the remainder of the week as ridging builds in across the central CONUS. Potential Tropical Cyclone (PTC) Nine is anticipated to move into the Gulf of Mexico and strengthen over the next day or two. The trough responsible for our showers this morning will continue to sag southward, eventually becoming a cutoff low over the Ozarks.
(This evening through Tuesday) An upper level trough axis is currently swinging through our area as showers and storms across the NW Hill Country continue to weaken and push east early this afternoon. Members of the 12Z HREF continue to differ on the amount of development and time of initiation so have capped PoPs in the low-end chance category. Elsewhere, with increased cloud cover and rain chances, temperatures will hold in the lower to mid 80s.
Weak ridge of high pressure is over Iowa this afternoon but despite the high pressure, some moisture has been moving into southeast and even parts of central Iowa. The northern system will drag the thermal trough over Iowa on Tuesday. The northern short wave will evolve into a large closed upper low pressure system over the lower Mississippi River Valley by Wednesday and will remain there into the early portion of the weekend, effectively clogging up the upper level flow.
(Today through Wednesday) A cold front currently resides basically from Texarkana northeast to the MO Bootheal this morning. This feature will continue to move closer to our region today as the parent upper level trough continues to spread eastward across the lower MS River Valley. The only other entity to mention this morning is perhaps some patchy fog in the lower spots, however, guidance may still be a bit too bullish with fog potential (as we've seen recently). 1) the deepening upper level low across the Cornbelt. which eventually starts heading southward down the Mississippi River on Wednesday and 2) PTC9 over the western Caribbean and the impacts the upper level trough and closed ULL have on it.
1140 PM MDT Mon Sep 23 2024 UPDATED AVIATION SECTION Well above normal temperatures are expected through Wednesday as upper level ridging moves over the Northern Rockies, with some locations potentially reaching 90 degrees on Wednesday.
Moist isentropic upglide will commence later this evening as a short wave trough approaches from the west and induces a return to southeasterly winds just off the deck. This will serve two purposes: the first is to keep the clouds across the southeastern CWA more or less intact and the second is to promote the development of fog just to the north and west of the clearing line, where radiational cooling and a collapse of the low- level T/Td spreads will promote efficient formation. There is the low (< 25 percent) potential of showers and thunderstorms overnight in between I-10 and I-20 as well, but QPF will be spotty at best. There is the outside (< 25 percent) chance of showers and thunderstorms across the higher terrain.
1038 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 - Chances (20-25%) for scattered light showers return this evening as a cold front moves across the region. Should see breezy conditions quickly diminish this evening as cloud cover builds ahead of an advancing cold front. Winds during this time look to become northwesterly in the wake of FROPA, leading to a slightly cooler day. As such, have afternoon highs in the lower 70s under partly cloudy skies. Upper level ridging builds across the region Wednesday, keeping conditions dry through mid-week.
1025 AM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024 An amplifying upper level trough and slow moving frontal system will bring showery conditions to Central Pennsylvania through at least Wednesday, along with a few rumbles of thunder. Given slightly better lift with this low- pressure system overhead coupled with enhanced moisture, have retained likely PoPs on Wednesday with highest chances during the late morning to early afternoon hours.
Slightly cooler temperatures and breezy winds arrive towards the end of the weekend. The weather story of the week will be the dominant high pressure that builds across the desert southwest.
615 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 (Today through Wednesday) A cold front currently resides basically from Texarkana northeast to the MO Bootheal this morning. This feature will continue to move closer to our region today as the parent upper level trough continues to spread eastward across the lower MS River Valley. The only other entity to mention this morning is perhaps some patchy fog in the lower spots, however, guidance may still be a bit too bullish with fog potential (as we've seen recently). 1) the deepening upper level low across the Cornbelt. which eventually starts heading southward down the Mississippi River on Wednesday and 2) PTC9 over the western Caribbean and the impacts the upper level trough and closed ULL have on it.
639 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 (Today) Shrtwv upper trough is currently traversing NE thru the Midwest/OH Valley regions, as a deeper trough pattern dives southward thru the Plains states. Otherwise, as the stronger trough axis digs thru the Plains states and into the Midwest region, a weak cold front is expected to approach the area from the NW.
A ridge of high pressure will be over the Northern Rockies for the next couple of days causing a warming and drying trend. Then on Wednesday a cold front will push across the region.
310 AM MDT Tue Sep 24 2024 Much warmer and dry conditions are expected for the next couple of days before a fast moving weather system brings periods of breezy to windy conditions, a few showers or storms, and cooler temperatures to close out the week. High pressure builds in for the next couple of days for a return of well above average temperatures and dry conditions. A trough moves onto the Pacific NW coast and displaces the upper level ridge in favor of a southwesterly flow aloft by late Wednesday.
An extensive amplified ridge is seen in GOES-West water vapor imagery covering most of the western third of the U. The center of the ridge looks like a pinwheel spinning right over western Oregon. The unusually strong high pressure may allow some sites to break record highs today. Looking offshore there's a significant cold front seen crossing 140W as of 330am PDT.
620 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 (Today through Wednesday) An elongated mid-level ridge is expected to remain in place over Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley today. A 500mb trough/low will dig southward into the Middle Mississippi River Valley on Wednesday and push the associated cold front into south Texas. In addition, Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine should strengthen to a tropical depression or storm as it enters the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Highs today and Wednesday are expected to be in the low to mid 90s, except for the 80s along the coast. The low temperatures for tonight will fall into the 70s, except around 80 for the beaches.
457 AM PDT Tue Sep 24 2024 An extensive amplified ridge is seen in GOES-West water vapor imagery covering most of the western third of the U. The center of the ridge looks like a pinwheel spinning right over western Oregon. The unusually strong high pressure may allow some sites to break record highs today. Looking offshore there's a significant cold front seen crossing 140W as of 330am PDT.
High pressure will bring mostly dry conditions and warmer temperatures to the region today.
639 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 Showers and a few thunderstorms are possible today as a cold front slowly moves across the region.
Chances will remain lower (20-30 percent) given the lower coverage.
817 AM MDT Tue Sep 24 2024 Much warmer and dry conditions are expected for the next couple of days before a fast moving weather system brings periods of breezy to windy conditions, a few showers or storms, and cooler temperatures to close out the week. High pressure aloft will only allow a few high clouds to pass overhead. /ISSUED 442 AM MDT Tue Sep 24 2024/ High pressure builds in for the next couple of days for a return of well above average temperatures and dry conditions. A trough moves onto the Pacific NW coast and displaces the upper level ridge in favor of a southwesterly flow aloft by late Wednesday.
442 AM MDT Tue Sep 24 2024 UPDATED AVIATION SECTION Much warmer and dry conditions are expected for the next couple of days before a fast moving weather system brings periods of breezy to windy conditions, a few showers or storms, and cooler temperatures to close out the week. High pressure builds in for the next couple of days for a return of well above average temperatures and dry conditions. A trough moves onto the Pacific NW coast and displaces the upper level ridge in favor of a southwesterly flow aloft by late Wednesday.
651 AM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024 A wave of low pressure will bring showers and thunderstorms to the Ohio Valley today.
607 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 Through tonight: A cold front is currently making rather slow progress into the region and will continue to do so through tonight. Tonight, a more vigorous upper disturbance is on track to move across the area as it rounds a cutoff upper low pivoting into the Mid-Mississippi Valley. Cooler and somewhat drier air will begin to move in from the north tonight behind the front, with airmass change becoming more noticeable in the following days.
530 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 - A few isolated to scattered shower possible this morning but measurable precipitation is unlikely - Expected highs for rest of the week averaging between about 77-84 degrees, with warmest temperatures in the west Showers were added with slight chances (15%) across the eastern sections of the area (Wakeeney-Hays and south through the highway 183 corridor and eastward) through about noon. The breezy conditions of this afternoon will be the strongest winds of the week as persistent surface ridging to the northeast provides light and variable winds overnight, mixing out to light and easterly in direction each afternoon. Northerly surface gusts will develop in the west as a transient weak low pressure area moves from the I-70 corridor to south east of DDC between 12 and 21 UTC.
212 AM PDT Tue Sep 24 2024 * A dry and mild pattern with weak RH recoveries on mid-slopes and ridgetops across western NV is expected this week.
635 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 (Today through Tonight) Water vapor imagery this morning shows an upper-level trough digging into the Great Plains while surface obs reveal a cold front to our west over Missouri & Arkansas. A few showers may linger overnight, especially across the Plateau where the cold front looks to stall.
1014 AM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024 High pressure will remain over the Maritimes today through Wednesday.