Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
621 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024 (This evening through Saturday Night) Slow-moving upper trough axis continues to trudge its way across the Red River Valley this afternoon, maintaining expansive cloud cover but very little in the way of convection thus far. However, we may see a slight uptick in convective coverage this evening across our NW zones invof the base of the trough axis as it shifts along the I-30 corridor. As the upper trough gradually shifts east of the region through the day on Saturday, expect any lingering convection across our easternmost zones to gradually diminish throughout the day.
628 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024 (This evening through Saturday) Upper level analysis shows a positively-tilted trough ejecting out of the Southern Plains. Behind it, a brief upper-level ridge will build into our CWA this weekend allowing warm and dry conditions into our area. Therefore, PoPs were lowered to accommodate for the low instability.
355 PM MDT Fri May 17 2024 - Cold front this evening with gusty northwest winds. With the cold front already entering far northwest SD, will start the wind advisory now for that area. Water vapor shows upper low over the Northern Rockies with short wave ejecting into eastern MT. At the surface, cold front extends from far northwest ND through southeast MT. Skies are mostly clear across our area, but thunderstorms are developing along the cold front over southeast MT. Later this afternoon and evening, robust cold front will cross our western zones and should be all but through our far south-central SD zones by midnight. Dry, cooler, and breezy conditions expected Saturday.
Strong and gusty winds behind a cold front will continue into this evening across much of North Central, Central, and Southwest Montana.
At this time, the highest chances should be along the northern portions of the Nature Coast and interior locations of the Peninsula.
A lee cyclone was analyzed in east-central Colorado this morning, and will rotate southward into West Texas by mid-day beneath the apex of the ridge where a diffuse dryline expected to anchor along the edge of the Caprock Escarpment. Winds will be light and variable as the cyclone rotates into the CWA this afternoon with temperatures soaring into the middle-upper 90s area-wide. The dryline will then translate westward tonight beneath the approach of a broad, synoptic-scale trough emerging from the western U.
(Sunday Night through next Saturday) Ridging builds in on Sunday night and sets us up for a dry start to the work week.
and a few deg warmer for Sun in the 80s to around 90. and a few deg warmer for Sun night in the 60s to around 70.
High pressure will build across the region Sunday morning drying us out and warming us up to around 90 degrees heading into the beginning of the workweek.
With plenty of insolation and a return to more predominant southerly flow, most high temperatures are expected to be 8 to 10 degrees warmer than those seen yesterday, with many locations reaching the 90s.
1205 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024 (This evening through Saturday) Upper level analysis shows a positively-tilted trough ejecting out of the Southern Plains. Behind it, a brief upper-level ridge will build into our CWA this weekend allowing warm and dry conditions into our area. Therefore, PoPs were lowered to accommodate for the low instability.
Deep, dry air under the ridge will yield ample late spring sun, pushing high temperatures into the upper 80s and lower 90s.
Sunday is looking dry and much warmer than today. A filling area of low pressure in western NY keeps SE flow across the region and with sufficient low level moisture, low stratus will persist for much of the morning into early afternoon limiting heating. The 500 mb trough axis is swinging through so despite the clouds, shower activity will lessen through the day. Tonight, upper level ridging builds in with high pressure nosing in from the NE. Sunday is looking good with high pressure and ridging remaining in place. Temperatures will warm into the mid to upper 70s with the mostly sunny skies and ridging in place.
Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are possible from just north of roughly Highway 50 on south through far southern Kansas between about 3-11pm, along a trailing weak cold front approaching from the north.
(Today through Sunday night) Dry and warm weather continues to be the theme this weekend for the Panhandles thanks mostly to an upper-level ridge that continues to build over the top of us. However, this shift in the low may also invite a couple of high based thunderstorms to our far north as they develop off the Front Range and move east. For today, afternoon high temperatures are likely to be in the low 90s for the majority of the combined Panhandles, while the lack of wind will allow places like the Palo Duro Canyon to nearly reach triple digits.
Current temperatures across the island chain are in the lower to mid 80s and dewpoints close behind with values near 80. KBYX is once again clear of any precipitable echoes as mean layer ridging is suppressing convective development across South Florida and the Western Caribbean. Tonight will also be a repeat of previous nights with breezes freshening with the cooling of South Florida's temperatures and low temperatures in the lower to mid 80s.
(Today through Sunday afternoon) Major changes begin today in the form of summer heat! Mid level ridging has quickly built in across the region as surface winds veer to the southwest. Deep mixing will send highs soaring nearly 20 degrees over yesterday and into the upper 90s to near 100 in the lower elevations. This will lead to increased fire weather conditions, especially across the higher terrain.
Expect activity to dissipate shortly after sunset with loss of heating and passage of upper level low. (Tonight through Saturday night) The primary mid-level trough axis is in the process of advancing through the region today. As a northwesterly flow aloft establishes in wake of the trough axis, we could see some isolated high-based convection develop from this afternoon through early this evening from just across the border into our Southern Edwards Plateau and Rio Grande Plain counties.
The next upper level trof and associated surface cold front will move through eastern Idaho on Sunday with much colder temperatures and windier conditions once again.
152 AM EDT Sat May 18 2024 An upper low and cold front approaching from the west will bring unsettled weather through Sunday. Cooler and drier air arrives Sunday night. Main upper trough axis approaches Sat night and swings through late Sunday keeping the weather quite unsettled. Cooler and much drier air spills in from the NW Sun night.
Pretty much all guidance has rain moving offshore in the 15z-18z window or sooner with the trough axis shifting to the east of the area.
Then all attention turns the the cold front moving across the Upper Midwest. This will keep Saturday cooler than what we have seen today. It is all about where the cold front is located when this happens.
140 AM EDT Sat May 18 2024 - Summerlike Weekend - Low Chance for Rain Sunday - Active Early to Mid-Week Period - Cooler End of the Week High pressure situated across the area this evening will bring quiet weather now that the afternoon/evening convection is diurnally fading. Very summerlike start to the weekend after fog/stratus burns off with highs in the lower 80s inland from Lk MI. - Active Early to Mid-Week Period Better chances for precipitation are expected for the start of the work week as a stronger upper level trough becomes established to our west.
For the weekend a cold front will start to push through the southeast. Areas south of I-4 will avoid the rain but will not be able to escape the heat with highs in the interior in the mid to upper 90's with head index in the low to mid 100's.
210 AM MDT Sat May 18 2024 - Dry, cooler and breezy today. - Warmer Sunday with thunderstorms. Current surface map places cold front across eastern South Dakota into central Nebraska. Low level thermal ridge peaks Sunday afternoon, with highs in the 70s to lower 80s. Upper trough lingers across the Pacific Northwest/Northern Rockies through much of the coming week with a series of impulses crossing the area. Strong winds with gusts up to 45 kts will continue across the western SD plains for the next several hours behind a cold front.
(Today through Sunday) The base of the upper level trough axis is currently moving through central Texas and will continue east through the morning. Weak upper level ridging is forecast to build over the area this afternoon through Sunday, producing dry, mostly clear, and much warmer temperatures. High temperatures today and Sunday are forecast in the the low to mid 90s across the Hill Country and along and east of I-35 and I-37, in the upper 90s along the U.
Discussion: We start the period with considerable moisture lingering over the area and a weak upper level trough to our west. This upper trough will move east across the region during the period and will be exiting to our east by late tonight. The showers and thunderstorms will diminish tonight from west to east as the trough axis shifts east.
At MCO, VCSH was included as low-confidence -SHRA ahead of a cold front may approach after 09z Sun. Overnight lows will be in the lower to mid-70s. Favorable boating conditions are forecast through Saturday as high pressure builds over the state of Florida.
Temperatures will be very pleasant in the 60s across the lower elevations and foothills. Another disturbance begins to influence the weather tonight as its approach digs a trof over the area and pulls in modest plains moisture overnight. Snow levels drop to around 6500 feet on Sunday, so expect 2 to 4 inches of snow in the highest terrain of the Beartooth/Absaroka and Crazy mountains Sunday/Sunday night (~50% chance > 3in Snow).
Given the lighter winds, dry air, and partial clearing overnight, lows will drop into the low to mid 30s in lower western Montana and higher central Idaho valleys this morning. Upper level troughing settles in Sunday accompanied by cooler temperatures and scattered showers.
(Today through Sunday) Southwesterly flow aloft persists this morning, with the trough still to our northwest. This afternoon, the trough will rotate across the area. Cloud cover will limit diurnal based instability, but cooler 500mb temperatures will push surface based CAPE values to 1500-2000 J/kg. With the presence of the trough nearby Sunday, a few showers or storms could develop across the far east during the afternoon, but expect any coverage to be isolated. With drier air arriving Sunday, highs will still be in the lower 80s, but with a bit less humidity.
As the next upper trough arrives into the western high plains Saturday evening, models are progged to develop an MCS across northwest KS, potentially impacting far northern Kansas late Saturday night into Sunday morning. While the upper trough vort max approaching from the west is not particularly poignant, strong sfc heating with highs near 90 degrees should aid in steepening low level lapse rates in advance of a dryline setup over central Kansas.
Aloft, a trof was quickly approaching the area from the west, and was kicking out a few minor impulses riding over the area. The trof should exit the area tomorrow and usher in a temporary reprieve from precipitation. Satellite imagery shows a closed low circulation over eastern OK, and this should move NE overnight into northern Arkansas. although convection will likely linger and persist in the vicinity of the boundary and the approaching closed low aloft. with dewpoints in the 60's and highs in the upper 80's to the lower 90's in most areas.
1216 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024 Water vapor imagery this evening shows a trough to our west over the OK/AR area which will be moving eastward over our area tomorrow. As this trough approaches, shower activity will become more scattered on Saturday. Patchy fog and low clouds will develop overnight along with a couple scattered showers as the trough axis remains to the west of the area. The trough axis will slowly move eastward on Saturday with additional shower activity possible and a couple of storms. The highest rain chances will be along the plateau with lower chances the farther west you go.
- Unsettled pattern continues with daily rain and thunderstorm chances for this upcoming week WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Trough that brought us yesterday's thunderstorms and this morning's rain will move off to the northeast today with brief and fast moving ridging allowing for pleasant, but breezy conditions for the rest of this afternoon. Next trough and cold front rotates through on Sunday bringing more scattered showers to the region.
With the highest rainfall amounts expected to fall further south of the Flood Watch configuration, the Flood Watch has been cancelled for this evening. Ridging is expected to build over the region heading into the weekend, which will bring an end to the unsettled weather pattern.
Ahead of the trough, showers and a few thunderstorms will continue to be possible throughout the day with better rain chances over the eastern and southeastern portions of the CWA. The aforementioned trough is expected to push through the area by the afternoon, bringing rain chances to an end from west to east late afternoon and into the evening.
An upper level trough will produce cool and occasionally showery conditions across Western Washington today into early Sunday.
(Today and tonight) High pressure will start to build across the region for this afternoon.
Hi-res satellite imagery shows clearing of low level clouds and dissipating fog as a trough axis digs southeast of the CWA, where a potent system generates storms along the AL/FL coastal areas. Additionally, a weak axis of moisture along a closed low near southwestern MS looks to generate enough energy to pose a low end severe weather risk this afternoon into the early evening. Otherwise, expect partly cloudy skies with highs into the lower to middle 80s this afternoon. Ahead of the trough, showers and a few thunderstorms will continue to be possible throughout the day with better rain chances over the eastern and southeastern portions of the CWA. The aforementioned trough is expected to push through the area by the afternoon, bringing rain chances to an end from west to east late afternoon and into the evening.
A round of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms is moving through the area this morning as a low pressure system and cold front advance through the area. This will also be confined to along and east of the cold front, depending on where it is located by early afternoon. It will be warm and humid ahead of the front, with highs getting into the low 80s for northwest Wisconsin and 70s for northern Minnesota. Behind the cold front tonight and Sunday morning I expect a period of quieter weather with cooler temperatures, with highs in the 70s. A ridge of high pressure will slide across the area, producing lighter winds as well.
600 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024 (Today and tonight) High pressure will start to build across the region for this afternoon.
While the bulk of the heavier rain will move east of the area this morning, additional development this afternoon and evening is forecast as the upper low moves across the Tennessee Valley.
648 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024 (Today through Sunday) Southwesterly flow aloft persists this morning, with the trough still to our northwest. This afternoon, the trough will rotate across the area. Cloud cover will limit diurnal based instability, but cooler 500mb temperatures will push surface based CAPE values to 1500-2000 J/kg. With the presence of the trough nearby Sunday, a few showers or storms could develop across the far east during the afternoon, but expect any coverage to be isolated. With drier air arriving Sunday, highs will still be in the lower 80s, but with a bit less humidity.
Isolated thunderstorms this afternoon over primarily White Pine and northern Nye counties, otherwise dry and storm- free with temperatures trending a few degrees warmer across the region. Temperatures Sunday will be much cooler across northern NV. Trough energy clips northern NV on Sunday with the main impact being significantly cooler afternoon high temperatures across northern NV. Most of northern NV can expect highs on Sunday to be 10-15 degrees cooler than today.
Water vapor imagery highlights a large, mean-layer ridge centered over the Western Caribbean and the Bahamas. The forecast calls for highs in the lower to mid 90s and nil rain chances. The western extent of a low-level ridge axis extends west- northwest through the Bahamas and across the Keys.
626 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024 (Today through Sunday night) Dry and warm weather continues to be the theme this weekend for the Panhandles thanks mostly to an upper-level ridge that continues to build over the top of us. However, this shift in the low may also invite a couple of high based thunderstorms to our far north as they develop off the Front Range and move east. For today, afternoon high temperatures are likely to be in the low 90s for the majority of the combined Panhandles, while the lack of wind will allow places like the Palo Duro Canyon to nearly reach triple digits.
557 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024 (Today through Sunday afternoon) Major changes begin today in the form of summer heat! Mid level ridging has quickly built in across the region as surface winds veer to the southwest. Deep mixing will send highs soaring nearly 20 degrees over yesterday and into the upper 90s to near 100 in the lower elevations. This will lead to increased fire weather conditions, especially across the higher terrain.
311 AM MST Sat May 18 2024 High pressure will persist over the region this weekend resulting in many more lower desert communities exceeding 100 degrees. To the west of the region, an elongated weak upper level trough is beginning to edge into southern California while a closed low hangs back another 800 miles to the west. With H5 heights hovering around 579dm across southern California to 581-584dm across southern Arizona today, high temperatures will again top out around or just over 100 degrees for much of the lower deserts, or 5-8 degrees above normal. Going into Sunday, the elongated trough to our west along with increasing influence from the trough to our north will begin to knock down our heights aloft.
Northwesterly winds will be gusty each afternoon particularly at coastal areas and ridges as the sea breeze pushes inland. Winds will be strongest along ridgelines and northwest to southeast oriented valleys and coastal headlands.
For the next several days, temperatures remain cooler than normal, with periods of gusty winds and an active weather pattern that favors periods of rain and high elevation snow. A broad upper level trof stretches across the Canadian Provinces of British Columbia, Alberta and Saskatchewan. Within, closed upper level areas of lower heights rotate through this trof. To our south, a weak upper level ridge resides over the Four Corners region. Off of the southern California/Baja Peninsula west coast resides a closed upper area of lower heights, and just upstream of that trof lies a strong upper level ridge.
High pressure will persist over the region this weekend resulting in many more lower desert communities exceeding 100 degrees. To the west of the region, an elongated weak upper level trough is beginning to edge into southern California while a closed low hangs back another 800 miles to the west. With H5 heights hovering around 579dm across southern California to 581-584dm across southern Arizona today, high temperatures will again top out around or just over 100 degrees for much of the lower deserts, or 5-8 degrees above normal. Going into Sunday, the elongated trough to our west along with increasing influence from the trough to our north will begin to knock down our heights aloft.
450 AM MDT Sat May 18 2024 - Dry, cooler and breezy today. - Warmer Sunday with thunderstorms. Current surface map places cold front across eastern South Dakota into central Nebraska. Low level thermal ridge peaks Sunday afternoon, with highs in the 70s to lower 80s. Upper trough lingers across the Pacific Northwest/Northern Rockies through much of the coming week with a series of impulses crossing the area.
Subtle surface to mid level ridging building into the region will keep skies mostly clear through the day with light winds.
Confidence in severe thunderstorm potential remains on the low end at this time. High pressure will build across the region Sunday morning drying us out and warming us up to around 90 degrees heading into the beginning of the workweek.
A mid-level trough continues to move east of our CWA today, allowing for ridging to take its place. Overnight lows will bottom out in the low to mid 70s each night with partly to mostly cloudy skies with light onshore winds.
(This afternoon through Sunday night) WV imagery shows an weak, upper-level ridge in place over West Texas and Southeast New Mexico this afternoon. Tonight, the ridge moves east of the area, courtesy of a PacNW trough digging southeast, putting the area under southwest flow aloft. Leeside troughing on the Front Range ahead of this feature will induce a 40+kt LLJ, keeping the boundary layer mixed, and overnight minimums ~ 6-8F above normal. Sunday, leeside troughing will increase surface winds across the area, adding a downslope warming component to the mix, and increasing thicknesses to provide the first day this spring of widespread triple-digits outside of the Rio Grande Valley.
Areas of morning dense fog has dissipated this morning, with partly cloudy skies expected this afternoon and warmer temperatures, with mid to upper 80s over Central and Southern Louisiana, and upper 80s to near 90 over Southeast Texas.
1230 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024 (Rest of Today) As a low pressure system moves into the TN Valley from the west, a complex of storms accompanies it- bringing threats of lightning, large hail, gusty to damaging winds, and heavy rainfall/flash flooding this morning into the afternoon.
As we lose diurnal influences and the 500 mb trough axis slides east, shower coverage will decrease after 00z. Upper ridging will build in from the west and highs should top out in the 80s across the area.
(Tonight) A quiet night is on tap across eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas as high pressure prevails at the surface and aloft.
Storms are expected to decrease in coverage with the loss of daytime heating during the evening hours tonight as the 500mb trough axis pushes off into Georgia.
Winds will pick up this evening, especially along the Snake River Valley with brief gusts to 30-35 mph, with ridgetops seeing gusts to 45 mph. Then, NW gusts up to 30- 40 kt spreading through the Snake Plain from KBKE/KONO to KMUO/KTWF this evening/overnight with cold front. Increasing to 10-15 kt with gusts 20-30 kt around Sun/05Z, due to cold front.
Tomorrow should be much drier for most of the area as the trough axis will be centered along the spine of the Appalachian and eastward.
(This evening through Sunday Night) A field of fair weather cumulus clouds this afternoon will begin to quickly dissipate around sunset this evening as high pressure at the sfc continues to dominate. Another warm day will follow on Sunday as light SE flow returns in the wake of advancing high pressure. Temperatures will likely run a few degrees warmer on Sunday compared to today with mostly locations reaching into the lower 90s under a field of afternoon cumulus once again.
(This evening through Sunday) Slightly cooler temperatures are expected this afternoon ranging from the upper 50's to mid 60's at the coast to upper 60's to mid 70's across the interior (a few spots may reach into the upper 70's). In wake of today's frontal passage, expecting tomorrow to be slightly warmer across the interior as low clouds will likely be quicker to dissipate. Thus, tomorrow we should see more upper 70's inland while cooler conditions prevail near the coast (upper 50's to mid 60's).