Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
CIMSS mid- and upper-level vorticity products highlight cyclonic flow associated with a well-defined Tropical Upper Tropospheric Trough (TUTT) cell now centered north of the Bahamas continue to gradually slide westward towards the Florida Space Coast. Meanwhile, a second area of cyclonic flow associated with a weak troughing feature is located near the Big Bend region of Florida. Early morning showers and thunderstorms along a weak boundary slid through the coastal waters south of the Island Chain around sunrise, reached portions of the Middle and Upper Keys, then eventually dissipated before being able to affect most of the Lower Keys. From synopsis, broad low- level ridging will continue to rebuild over the North Atlantic and support gentle to moderate east to southeasterly breezes across Florida Keys coastal waters, veering to the southeast to south and modestly slackening throughout the week.
306 PM EDT Mon Jun 30 2025 A cold front tracks through tonight into early Tuesday.
1143 AM MDT Mon Jun 30 2025 - The start of the work week will bring slightly cooler temperatures and daily storms over the higher terrain. Temperatures across the region will be a bit cooler today, with 70s- 80s over most of our forecast area. Looking aloft, high pressure continues to build in from the southwest as yesterday's system moves off to the east. Temperatures will warm slightly on Tuesday, with slightly drier conditions over the plains as high pressure continues to build in overhead. General midlevel troughieness over the West Coast and ridging over the central plains will keep a generally somewhat moister pattern over the higher terrain while the plains will remain mostly dry this week into the July 4 Holiday weekend and beyond.
A mean upper trough forms over the eastern Conus in the process.
1231 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025 - Scattered showers and thunderstorms today as a weak cold front moves into the area, with a limited severe weather threat.
149 PM EDT Mon Jun 30 2025 A warm and humid day today ahead of the next approaching cold front. A warm front is across western NY this afternoon, and will continue to move northward through this evening. The combination of temperatures in the 80s and dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s has led to heat index values in the upper 80s to low 90s across western NY/south of the warm front this afternoon. Scattered showers and a few rumbles of thunder have been ongoing south of the warm front, across southwest NY. Showers and a few storms are possible as the warm front lifts through tonight. A cold front/surface boundary will move through the forecast area Tuesday.
223 PM MDT Mon Jun 30 2025 - Convection to linger across the higher terrain and adjacent plains this evening, with the main threats being periods of heavy rain, gusty winds up to 45 mph, small hail and frequent lightning. - Daily shot of afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms, mainly tied to the higher terrain.
1251 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025 - Cooler and less humid to start the week, hot and humid to end the week. Several complexes of thunderstorms have developed along this trough. Instability in the range of 2,000 to 3,000 J/Kg of ML CAPE was present along and just ahead of this trough axis. Short- term models and radar trends have the trough axis and thunderstorms nosing into north central Kansas over the next couple of hours. The trough is forecast to move south of our area by mid afternoon. A few isolated storms may develop by the afternoon if we can clear out and destabilize behind the departing trough and morning complex of storms. Cooler and less humid air will move in Monday night into Tuesday.
It appears the highest storm chances and better potential for wind will be southeast of the I-59/20 corridor tomorrow.
205 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025 - Scattered showers and storms will continue until a cold front makes passage tonight.
A cold front will move through on Tuesday, bringing with it additional thunderstorm chances.
An upper level trough remains off the CA coast with unusual isolated thunderstorms over the marine layer. A dry slot with the system moves into southeast OR and southwest ID Tuesday afternoon, limiting thunderstorm threat, and allowing warmer air. Temperatures will be in the low 100s in the Treasure Valley and Weiser River Basin on Tuesday where a Heat Advisory remains in effect.
1116 AM PDT Mon Jun 30 2025 - Temperatures trending much warmer through Tuesday including moderate to locally major HeatRisk.
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: An upper ridge will be building across the region over the next few days, bringing hot and dry weather through midweek.
1109 AM MDT Mon Jun 30 2025 - Cooler and drier today. Once the storms clear, a cooler day is forecast as the upper trough finishes swinging through the Plains and on the back side of the cold front. Low temperatures are forecast to be a bit cooler in the 50s and low 60s.
110 PM MDT Mon Jun 30 2025 - Afternoon showers and storms are expected each day with the best chances on the higher terrain. Currently there is a ridge of high pressure in place, so temperatures are running 5-10 degrees above normal. Convection has already initiated over the higher terrain, and expect some of that activity to move into the surrounding valleys through sunset. This should result in a slight uptick in afternoon convection with the highest chances occurring in the southern mountains. Low pressure over California and high pressure over the Gulf will keep deeper moisture moving into the CWA thanks to flow around these two features.
1146 AM MDT Mon Jun 30 2025 - Cooler today with storms focused over the southern foothills and South Park. This flow and trough are providing just enough lift and shear to allow for severe convection in our area. With a strong cap above the low level cool and moist air, it will take a very long time for the boundary layer to mix out.
An unsettled pattern continues on Tuesday as the area remains in a northerly upper level flow pattern between a ridge to our west and upper low east of the Florida peninsula.
A cold front approaches the area Tuesday with a chance for stronger thunderstorms. The stagnant pattern finally begins breaking down Tuesday and a weak upper trough and surface cold front move into the area from the west.
- Greater coverage of precip is forecast for Tuesday ahead of a cold front. A progressive upper trough is located over the Midwest late today, with an associated surface cold front from Lake Michigan southwest to KS. Geopotential heights are falling as the trough approaches, further enabling convective development with diurnal heating today. The upper trough and front will both pass through the region on Tuesday into Tuesday evening.
Low pressure if off the California coast and we can already see mid-level moisture advancing to the northwest around it. With the low moving closed to the California coast on Tuesday, we'll likely have another round of showers and thunderstorms with just a slight edge eastward in the greatest activity.
Other headlines appear to still be in good shape with the heavier freezing rain now moving into far eastern OK and northwest AR. (Today) Widespread freezing rain showers will continue through 12-15Z this morning with temperatures hovering between 28-32F. After about 15Z, freezing rain will change to rain from south to north, with most areas being all rain by 18Z.
As a result, most of the freezing rain will shift east of I-35 in the next 1-2 hours (4-5 AM). Some freezing fog here and there across northwestern OK will be briefly possible early Tuesday AM but little to no impacts are anticipated since temperatures will be very close to freezing.
700 AM EST Mon Jan 22 2024 A warming trend starts Monday as high pressure shifts offshore. High pressure remains anchored just our north across the Mid- Atlantic, keeping the pressure gradient weak.
Overview: A bit warmer temperatures so far across the area than we have seen as lows remain in the teens to low 20s across the forecast area. Observations show reports of freezing rain and even some snow. Perhaps the most challenging part of the forecast continues to revolve around determining expected precipitation types, with concerns continuing to revolve around temperatures (remaining right around freezing) and saturation. If enough lift, some models would suggest drizzle/freezing drizzle during the onset of precipitation.
624 AM CST Mon Jan 22 2024 - No freezing drizzle occurring in SE ND or MN and risk for that is ending as winds turn north.
914 AM EST Mon Jan 22 2024 Freezing rain will be possible at times tonight into Tuesday morning before temperatures warm and transition over to rain.
(Today through Tuesday) We are going to go from winter to spring during this forecast as we transition into a wet and warmer patter this week.
A large and strong anticyclone remains centered just east of the Appalachians this morning. The high will continue to move to the east emerging off the Del-Mar-VA coastline late today/tonight before continuing eastward into the western North Atlantic for mid to late week.
(Today through Tuesday) This morning we start out cold as the high pressure system has moved to our east. A low pressure system will also develop and slide through eastern Texas.
523 AM EST Mon Jan 22 2024 A wintry mix will develop today and change to mostly freezing rain tonight. The freezing rain will eventually become just rain as temperatures rise above freezing.
Main impacts include reduced visibility and low end probabilities for freezing fog. Will need to continue monitoring into the next forecast package to possible begin adding areas of freezing fog once the cool front movement becomes much more apparent and if low temperatures warrant freezing conditions. Nevertheless, current forecast soundings shy away from freezing fog this far west with a noticeable inversion above the surface and ultimately much better potentials further east into central Nebraska and the Dakotas.
This is introducing a relatively warmer Pacific atmosphere from the southwest, that is bringing a wintry mix to the valleys of the Northern Rockies. Another round of light freezing rain occurred last evening, which has created very slick conditions, particularly in western Montana. Another surge of moisture from the southwest arrives tonight, so more advisories for light freezing rain may be needed for this evening through tomorrow morning.
651 AM EST Mon Jan 22 2024 Arctic high pressure shifts offshore tonight and Tuesday allowing milder air to spread across the area.
There is a low chance for freezing drizzle or light freezing rain along the southern edge of this precipitation.
639 AM CST Mon Jan 22 2024 (Today through Tuesday) This morning we start out cold as the high pressure system has moved to our east. A low pressure system will also develop and slide through eastern Texas.
644 AM EST Mon Jan 22 2024 Freezing rain will be possible at times tonight into Tuesday morning before temperatures warm and transition over to rain.
527 AM CST Mon Jan 22 2024 (Today through Tuesday) We are going to go from winter to spring during this forecast as we transition into a wet and warmer patter this week.
Light icing is beginning to develop across bridges and overpasses in northern McCurtain county. An upper-trough across the west coast will deepen across the desert southwest through the short term period allowing for a general southwest flow setup across the ArkLaTex.
635 AM EST Mon Jan 22 2024 A wintry mix will develop today and change to mostly freezing rain tonight. The freezing rain will eventually become just rain as temperatures rise above freezing.
While mainly falling as snow in the northeast, freezing rain is possible south central into the James River Valley, where a Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect until 15Z. There is a low chance for freezing drizzle or light freezing rain along the southern edge of this precipitation.
758 AM CST Mon Jan 22 2024 Updated todays MaxT grid with a slightly cooler CONSShort solution to be more representative of current temperatures. Will expect temperatures to rise above freezing around 11 AM just prior to the next round of rain coming up from northern Texas into central through southeast Oklahoma based on latest HRRR guidance. As a result, most of the freezing rain will shift east of I-35 in the next 1-2 hours (4-5 AM). Some freezing fog here and there across northwestern OK will be briefly possible early Tuesday AM but little to no impacts are anticipated since temperatures will be very close to freezing.
A weak s/wv trough has moved east of Flagstaff early this Monday morning, with only isolated and light showers remaining. This trough left a moisture-rich boundary layer behind, with high dew points and low clouds currently observed across much of Arizona. Looking upstream, a fleeting s/wv ridge will pass over Arizona today, with thick mid to high level cloud cover, ahead of the next trough due tonight. This next trough will be a bit deeper and colder, it will also linger over Arizona longer, but the story generally remains the same.
(Today through Tuesday) High pressure over the Southeastern United States will move slowly eastward into the Western Atlantic waters through Tuesday, as a mid-level ridge builds over South Florida. Highs today will be in the lower 70s before increasing to lower to mid-70s on Tuesday.
413 AM MST Mon Jan 22 2024 - Areas of freezing fog this morning along and east of a Hill City to Scott City line in northwest Kansas. - Freezing fog and freezing drizzle become more widespread tonight through Tuesday morning.
(Today through Tuesday) High pressure currently stretches from eastern West Virginia to the coast of the Carolinas. The center of the high will move offshore tonight, with a wedge building in from the east.
606 AM EST Mon Jan 22 2024 (Today through Tuesday) High pressure over the Southeastern United States will move slowly eastward into the Western Atlantic waters through Tuesday, as a mid-level ridge builds over South Florida. Highs today will be in the lower 70s before increasing to lower to mid-70s on Tuesday.
445 AM PST Mon Jan 22 2024 A low pressure system will move inland through southern California and northern Baja today.
- Well above average temperatures will return to the area this week, including the chance for seeing above freezing temperatures by the end of the week. This coupled with air temperatures remaining below freezing, and just enough blowable snow to introduce drifting snow in open country into the forecast. Should pavement temperatures reach above the freezing mark, this could bring the potential for blow ice.
The clouds broke just enough to let more sunshine in than expected, which has resulted in warmer temperatures. Moisture rounding the periphery of this high will rotate across the area Tuesday and Tuesday night with a threat for showers and maybe even a few isolated thunderstorms in the Straits of Florida.
1131 AM CST Mon Jan 22 2024 - No freezing drizzle occurring in SE ND or MN and risk for that is ending as winds turn north.
1232 PM EST Mon Jan 22 2024 A wintry mix will develop today and change to mostly freezing rain tonight.
1202 PM CST Mon Jan 22 2024 (The rest of today ) Light to moderate precipitation (mix of rain and freezing rain) continues to push eastward across far southeast OK and northwest AR, with light drizzle/freezing drizzle still affecting portions of far northeast OK as of 10:30 AM. Luckily, latest surface observations are beginning to show temperatures rising to or just above freezing, especially across far southeast OK. Most locations in the CWA should rise and stay above freezing by or even before noon. which may take a couple of more hours to warm above freezing. mainly to capture the freezing rain to rain transition.
(Tonight through Tuesday night) An upper level trough covers the southwestern part of the country this afternoon with southwesterly flow over South Texas. The low level flow is weak with a poorly defined pressure field.
(Tonight) A broad upper trough axis will continue to dig into the SW states tonight, as an embedded shrwv ahead of the trough lifts NE into the mid Plains. With the developing return flow pattern and increased cloud cover, temps into early Tue look to remain above freezing for the most part, with lows mainly in the mid/upper 30s.
156 PM MST Mon Jan 22 2024 Afternoon Discussion: Today through Tuesday: A stagnant airmass with a stationary front in place over central MT will keep the area socked in with low cloud and scattered areas of freezing fog through early Tuesday afternoon. -Stoinskers UPDATED: 2100Z FLIGHT CATEGORY RANGE: MVFR - LIFR DISCUSSION: The low cloud deck will remain in place, and there is high (80 percent) confidence this will continue through 18Z Tuesday. There is moderate (50 percent) confidence that TAF sites will be affected by scattered areas of freezing fog from 03Z through 15Z tonight.
Due to the low stratus and rain chances for most of the day on Tuesday, high temperatures were slightly lowered than what the NBM gave to lower 40s across the Rolling Plains to upper 40s to lower 50s across the South Plains. Winds will remain light and from the south before veering from the east to southeast as a deep low pressure system moves over Arizona. There is a slight chance of freezing fog with light ice accumulation for areas where temperatures fall below freezing.
Sunny and above freezing temperatures will continue to make inroads into the snowpack today. Discussion: Currently temperatures are climbing near or above the 40 degree mark across much of the area under the sunny skies and a strengthening ridge in the mid levels. Cloud coverage will go mostly overcast before sunrise meaning overnight lows should be much more moderate, only dropping into the 30's or 20's across much of the valley, about 15 degrees warmer than Monday mornings low temperatures. Tomorrow expect isolated showers to move in, with the highest coverage expected to be along the Plateau and west towards Middle Tennessee. However temperatures should be almost 10 degrees warmer and maybe jumping up into the 50's. A warming trend will continue with widespread above freezing temperatures leading to snowmelt.
Warm air in the low levels along with cool and saturated air at the surface will allow for fog to continue in the north central and northeast areas, especially in low lying areas of the river valley.
Surface temperatures over the southwest areas will be more susceptible to be nearer freezing this evening with rain/fzra in that area while the southeast may be warm enough to start off as rain. For now, we still have a broadbrush area of some light freezing rain and snow and rain, which will bring some travel impacts over the area. Lows tonight will be in the lower 20s northwest to the lower 30s in the southeast. Lows Tuesday night will not change much from the mid 20s northwest to the lower 30s southeast.
1148 AM CST Mon Jan 22 2024 (Today through Tuesday Night) The forecast remains on track with impacts from this round of winter weather already being noted across W/NW Arkansas this morning as freezing rain has caused dangerous conditions on area roadways. Still anticipate the main impacts from ice accumulation to be slick roadways as freezing rain will continue to spread E/NE through the day. Sfc temperatures remain near to just below freezing this morning and areas that haven't experienced precip yet could see temps initially dip 2-3 degrees when precip begins.
High pressure anchored for the time being along the Eastern Seaboard is maintaining windy conditions across the island chain. Temperatures are currently in the upper 60s to lower 70s with dew points comfortably in the lower 60s. There was a dry layer still present in the lower levels and above the cloud deck that any precipitation that attempts to fall will likely evaporate. From synopsis: a large high pressure system centered near the Appalachians will slide steadily east southeast over the next several days.
With the increasing cloud cover overnight and persistent southeasterly winds, the majority of the area will only drop to 32 degrees or above so refreezing tonight will be minimal. Temperatures on Tuesday will warm into the low to mid 50s thanks to warm air advection.
218 PM CST Mon Jan 22 2024 - Winter Weather Advisory posted for tonight for another round of freezing rain. - There may be some more freezing rain Tuesday night.
(Through tonight) Temperatures have been slow to warm across the area early this afternoon, but most places have risen to or above the freezing mark at this hour, therefore any further icing will be very minimal and isolated through the afternoon. Bowlan (Tuesday through Monday) The rest of the workweek is expect to be dominated by western CONUS longwave troughing, with deep layer southerly flow continuing to pump moisture into the region. Continued thick cloud cover along with fog and drizzle will limit high temperatures a bit, but still much warmer temperatures are expected through the middle of the week than what has been seen in the last ten days.
Precipitation continues this morning ahead of an incoming weak upper level trough from the west. There will be brief break in the widespread precipitation this afternoon with another round of widespread precipitation coming late tonight through Tuesday morning with the trough passage. Snow level remain around 5500 feet with surface temperatures staying above freezing. However, the Western Magic Valley could see temperatures close to freezing with models showing 5-10% probabilities of freezing rain. Will need to investigate freezing rain potential further but currently it looks like temperatures will remain above freezing in the Western Magic Valley.
Due to the low stratus and rain chances for most of the day on Tuesday, temperatures were slightly lowered from NBM with highs in the lower 40s across the Rolling Plains to upper 40s to lower 50s across the South Plains. Winds will remain light from the south before backing from the east to northeast as a deep low pressure system moves over Arizona. There is a slight chance for freezing fog with light ice accumulations for areas where temperatures fall below freezing.
1051 AM CST Mon Jan 22 2024 (Today through Tuesday) We are going to go from winter to spring during this forecast as we transition into a wet and warmer patter this week.
1105 AM EST Mon Jan 22 2024 High pressure will build overhead today before shifting eastward midweek as an upper level trough deepens over the central plains. Waves of low pressure will impact the area for the second half of the week as the upper level trough approaches the Mid-Atlantic. Mary's county where temperatures will stay in the low 30s. High pressure overhead will shift eastward off the coast throughout the day on Tuesday. Upper level ridging will continue overhead as an upper level trough deepens over the western CONUS. Precipitation chances increase from northwest to southeast throughout the day as an area of low pressure approaches the area.
A low pressure system along the Pacific northwest coast line will continue to spin weak waves of energy up into western Montana and north central Idaho. During this time frame, ground temperatures well below freezing and air temperatures near freezing will likely allow for rain/freezing rain to accumulate on paved surfaces, causing very slick conditions.
(The rest of today ) Light to moderate precipitation (mix of rain and freezing rain) continues to push eastward across far southeast OK and northwest AR, with light drizzle/freezing drizzle still affecting portions of far northeast OK as of 10:30 AM. Luckily, latest surface observations are beginning to show temperatures rising to or just above freezing, especially across far southeast OK. Most locations in the CWA should rise and stay above freezing by or even before noon. which may take a couple of more hours to warm above freezing. mainly to capture the freezing rain to rain transition.