Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
(Sunday through Monday) The remnants of Tropical Cyclone Francine continues to meander across northern Mississippi this morning. Upper ridging has set-up just to the west of the region across the Southern Plains. As a result, a pseudo frontal boundary has develop across the areas on the edge of the ridge and near the trough associated with Francine. Expect cooler temps as well, with most locations seeing highs in the mid 80s. (Monday Night through Sunday) The remnants of Francine will get absorb into a deepening trough across the Lower Mississippi Valley and SE CONUS, as another potential tropical cyclone moves into that region out of the Carolinas.
This closed low will help increase cloud cover and rain and storm chances across our CWA with the greatest coverage in the N/NE half of our forecast area. Rain chances will continue heading into early Monday morning as global guidance shows the remnant tropical low being fully absorbed into a upper ridge pattern running NE-SW from New England to Shreveport. This will bring a return to a diurnally driven regime fueled by available sfc/low level moisture with dewpoints climbing in the low 70s.
947 AM EDT Sun Sep 15 2024 High pressure will remain in place into mid-week, bringing above average temperatures and dry, sunny weather.
Persistent southwesterlies indicates a reverse cloud line along the Lower Keys will be a forecast concern. Ponding on the typically favored roadways will peak at the times of the morning higher high tide in the Lower and Middle Keys, with little tidal cycle relief in the Upper Keys.
the broad area of mid/upper level low pressure across the Southeast U. This should then push the mid-level deformation zone westward up against the ridge of high pressure just to the west.
As previous discussions have mentioned, guidance suggests the troughy pattern in place over the southeastern portion of the U.
Temps are warming up a tad faster than previously forecasted, but max temperatures this afternoon have not changed much with most places in the Valley expected to climb into the 80's and cant rule out a hot spot touching the 90 degree mark, about 5+ degrees warmer than seasonal normals. Discussion: A dominant upper ridge will remain situated from the eastern Great Lakes southward along the Appalachian chain through the short term period more or less. During this time it will also be shoved westward towards the coast thanks to the aforementioned ridge, possibly pushing into the central parts of SC by the end of the short term period.
230 AM PDT Sun Sep 15 2024 Cooler and more unsettled weather thru mid-week with a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Dry and warmer weather returns late in the week. The HREF shows the best potential for showers and thunderstorms over northern portions of the Coast Range up into Shasta County later today as moisture and instability pool over the north end of the valley ahead of the trough. Later tonight and Monday, shower potential is likely to spread south and east over the remainder of the forecast area with the upper low, also bringing potential for a little snow over the higher elevations of the northern Sierra (recent warm weather may alleviate potential for much accumulation on road surfaces).
Temperatures are around 80 near the lakeshore where there is an easterly wind component off the cooler lake, and upper 80s to around 90 in inland areas. Lows tonight will be in the lower 60s, similar to last night, with mostly clear skies. Light winds and dewpoints in the lower 60s could allow for some patchy fog in low spots once again. Mid and upper levels will be slightly drier than today as that upper ridge retrogrades a bit. Therefore, dewpoints should be a little cooler and diurnal cumulus clouds should be even more sparse.
It should be quiet overnight with slightly cooler air in place across our northeast counties where lows will drop into the mid and upper 60s. Monday should feature mostly sunny skies with highs in the upper 80s and lower 90s as we start to see a little more influence from mid level ridging and lower PWs.
Here, an upper low related to the remnants of Francine has become stuck under strong ridging to the north. Beneath this ridge axis in an area of mid-level convergence towards central KS, we did see a few isolated elevated showers and weak thunderstorms develop this morning.
317 PM EDT Sun Sep 15 2024 High pressure will remain over the region through the middle of the week before a weak low pressure moves up the East Coast and potentially impacts portions of the area. An upper level ridge of high pressure over the eastern Great Lakes and Northeast CONUS is dominating our weather pattern. A low pressure system south of the ridge of high pressure will track westward through the Mid-Atlantic region by Monday night. High temperatures in the afternoon will be in the lower to mid 80s.
Tomorrow, the low will be down over northern California and will start to move eastward.
1212 PM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024 (Today through Monday Night) Remnants of Tropical Cyclone Francine will continue to meander around the region through the period keeping precipitation chances in the forecast before ending Monday evening, at the earliest.
1220 PM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024 (Today through Monday) The remnants of Francine are still slowly sagging southward but continuing to weaken into an open trough.
- Confidence on rain late this week and weekend continues to lower with a potential blocking pattern developing over the eastern CONUS.
A trough over the southeastern coast of the United States, designated as Invest AL95 by the National Hurricane Center, will move onshore in the Carolinas during the first half of the week. Deep layer troughing will be amplified over Florida and this feature is expected to develop into a cutoff low by midweek. First, the trough will direct very deep layers of moisture across the Keys with some guidance suggesting PWAT values as high as 2. Third, if the trough moves south and west enough, then a weak right entrance region of an upper level jet could further enhance vertical motion and support development of deep thunderstorms.
/05/ (Sunday through Monday) The remnants of Tropical Cyclone Francine continues to meander across northern Mississippi this morning. Upper ridging has set-up just to the west of the region across the Southern Plains. As a result, a pseudo frontal boundary has develop across the areas on the edge of the ridge and near the trough associated with Francine. Expect cooler temps as well, with most locations seeing highs in the mid 80s. (Monday Night through Sunday) The remnants of Francine will get absorb into a deepening trough across the Lower Mississippi Valley and SE CONUS, as another potential tropical cyclone moves into that region out of the Carolinas.
320 PM EDT Sun Sep 15 2024 High pressure centered northeast of the area will weaken. Persistent high pressure will keep clear skies across the region overnight.
The upper ridge is already attempting to build southwest across the Quad State and should make its presence felt throughout the region Monday. The upper ridge may get pinched enough by the weekend to allow for a few showers along the northwest periphery of the region.
1245 PM EDT Sun Sep 15 2024 Dry weather will continue through Monday under high pressure.
It will be windy and cooler on Monday with gusts 35 to 45 mph.
A less active day is expected on Monday as we begin to transition into a pronounced mid/upper level blocking pattern that will keep conditions warm but otherwise benign for several days. Look for highs in the low to mid 90s, lows in the low to mid 70s, and slightly lower dew points thanks to the transition to a light W/NW wind.
107 PM PDT Sun Sep 15 2024 Cooler and more unsettled weather thru mid-week with a chance of showers and thunderstorms tonight into tomorrow morning. Dry and warmer weather returns late in the week.
Daytime highs on Monday should be a tick lower given closer approach and influence from the upper low to the east.
Partly to mostly cloudy skies to prevail across the ArkLaTex with the highest coverage across south Arkansas and northeast Louisiana. Widely scattered daytime convection expected across northeast Louisiana and south Arkansas on Monday as a southward moving upper-trough forces the remnants of Francine across the northern gulf coast. High temperatures on Monday are forecast average to average in the low to mid 80s with overnight lows in the mid to upper 60s.
(Tonight through Monday night) Key Message: - Low chance of flash flooding over the Brush Country through tonight An elongated low located over eastern Mexico around the 700mb level from Pacific Post-Tropical Cyclone Ilena will continue to usher in mid-level moisture and funnel southeasterly Gulf moisture through tonight over portions of South Texas. The aforementioned low over Mexico will wash out and get replaced by a mid-level ridge Monday night, diminishing rain chances as PWATs fall below 2.
Otherwise, a southeasterly low level jet will develop over southeast MT this evening (850mb winds of 30-40kts), bringing a mild night with poor to moderate at best RH recoveries over the eastern ridges, and keeping them relatively breezy (15-30 mph winds). Heading into Monday, an upper low pushing inland through California into Nevada will induce diffluent southerly flow over the region. Another south to southeasterly low level jet looks to set up over southeast MT Monday night bringing warm conditions on the ridges, with poor to moderate RH recoveries.
145 PM MDT Sun Sep 15 2024 Is today the last day with widespread temps in the 80s across eastern Idaho? It's certainly possible, not a guarantee though, but what is a guarantee is that much of the week ahead will be much colder than normal as a series of low pressure systems look to impact the region throughout the workweek.
Late night may bring some patchy fog as most areas dip to the lower 60s. A strong ridge over the Great Lakes and New England will push dry and stable air into the area for the start of the week. Later in the week, another ridge from our southwest will spread across the region. One of those systems will be a low pressure system along the east coast that could become a tropical low.
246 PM EDT Sun Sep 15 2024 High pressure will continue fair weather and above normal day time temperatures through mid week.
Upper ridging across the Great Lakes and eastern Canada is not anticipated to relent anytime soon. The ridging is anomalously strong, as shown by the ECE ensemble mean 500 mb heights reaching almost 3 standard deviations above normal across eastern Canada by late this week. Longwave troughing across the western U. is going to have a tough time making forward progress with such a strong ridge in place.
(Monday night through next Sunday) An upper-level ridge building across much of West Central Texas this coming week will keep warm and dry conditions in the forecast through the end of the week.
A broad dome of high pressure will continue to reside over the Great Lakes through the upcoming week which should keep any moisture from the Gulf of Mexico trapped well south of our area across the Tennessee Valley and Deep South.
We should definitely see some sunshine in many locations as highs top out in the low to mid 80s Monday afternoon.
This will translate to increased low level clouds holding temps a couple of degrees cooler than today with isolated showers developing in the Davis Mountains.
Synopsis: Deep layer anticyclone remains anchored over the northeast quadrant of the CONUS.
Expect the high clouds to keep thinning and a few cumulus clouds may develop, mainly toward the IL border. The upper level high remains to the east of the region into early this week, with a trough digging across the western parts of the country. At the surface, high pressure is expected to remain well to the east, with dry east southeasterly flow and continued warm temperatures. Similar temperatures are expected on Monday, as the high remains well east.
321 PM EDT Sun Sep 15 2024 Low pressure will move ashore on Monday bringing increasingly heavy rainfall and gusty winds espeically at the coast.
Low pressure is still over the region keeping rain and clouds over the area. A few thunderstorms cannot be ruled out this evening as this low continues to hang out over the region. Rain and shower chances still remain elevated on Monday as this low weakens Monday.
Decent surface moisture remains with dewpoints mostly in the low 50s to mid 60s. The upper low over the Pacific Northwest will continue digging southward this evening and into tonight. The upper low is currently aiding in terrain induced convection across central New Mexico. The upper ridge will build slightly, but a slight decrease in thicknesses will help keep high temps almost unchanged from today. The building ridge will also help to suppress convective chances.
These showers are moving from east to west around the wedge of high pressure that is still dominating the overall flow across the state. This wedge is keeping things cloudy and damp as the cooler air flows down the eastern seaboard from the mid atlantic states. There is also a low pressure center developing off the Carolina coast which is forecasted to make landfall near the SC/NC coast around sunrise Mon. This low center will move slowly inland through Monday evening with a drier airmass wrapping around the backside. a few of our eastern and northeastern counties may see a shower or two Monday afternoon/evening due to the closer proximity to the low center.
Low temperatures are forecast to drop into the low to mid 60s accompanied by winds around 5-10 mph with occasionally higher gusts.
Quiet night with high pressure, clearing skies, and light easterly winds.
The cold front from yesterday has now broadened out to little more than a trough axis and moisture boundary this afternoon, and has pretty much stalled over eastern North Dakota, extending southwest into central South Dakota. However, there is an area of convergence along/ahead of that trough axis that may be able to produce showers and thunderstorms during the late afternoon and evening hours that should slide east overnight. Since the high resolution models seem to have a similar depiction, have gone with some slight to chance pops along and north of the Iron Range for tonight into Monday.
743 PM EDT Sun Sep 15 2024 Dry weather will continue through Monday under high pressure.
1053 PM EDT Sun Sep 15 2024 Dry weather will continue through Monday under high pressure.
Upper level trough moving southward tonight with gradually clearing skies tonight. Monday will be dry as well with the trough well to the south and an approaching front still north of Vancouver Island.
738 PM EDT Sun Sep 15 2024 High pressure will remain over the region through the middle of the week before a weak low pressure moves up the East Coast and potentially impacts portions of the area. An upper level ridge of high pressure over the eastern Great Lakes and Northeast CONUS is dominating our weather pattern. A low pressure system south of the ridge of high pressure will track westward through the Mid- Atlantic region by Monday night. High temperatures in the afternoon will be in the lower to mid 80s.
Looking more broadly, the disturbance off of the Carolina coast has been upgraded to Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight. The 00Z sounding does indicate that some of the dry air may had filtered in, with a decent amount of drier air sampled in the lower and mid-levels.
855 PM EDT Sun Sep 15 2024 High pressure centered northeast of the area will weaken.
717 PM EDT Sun Sep 15 2024 High pressure centered northeast of the area will weaken. Persistent high pressure will keep clear skies across the region overnight.
800 PM EDT Sun Sep 15 2024 Low pressure will move ashore on Monday bringing increasingly heavy rainfall and gusty winds especially at the coast.
705 PM EDT Sun Sep 15 2024 High pressure will continue fair weather and above normal day time temperatures through mid week.
Breezy west to northwest winds through tonight, followed by breezy offshore flow over the higher terrain into Monday.
Overnight, cooler and drier air will advect in from the east, which should lead to patchy fog formation as dewpoint depressions fall to near zero. Late night may bring some patchy fog as most areas dip to the lower 60s. A strong ridge over the Great Lakes and New England will push dry and stable air into the area for the start of the week. Later in the week, another ridge from our southwest will spread across the region. One of those systems will be a low pressure system along the east coast that could become a tropical low.
1030 PM EDT Sun Sep 15 2024 High pressure will remain over the region through the middle of the week before a weak low pressure moves up the East Coast and potentially impacts portions of the area. Expect temperatures to fall into the mid to upper 50s tonight, but a few spots along the lakeshore may stay in the slightly warmer lower 60s. An upper level ridge of high pressure over the eastern Great Lakes and Northeast CONUS is dominating our weather pattern. A low pressure system south of the ridge of high pressure will track westward through the Mid- Atlantic region by Monday night. High temperatures in the afternoon will be in the lower to mid 80s.
We should see more significant clearing tomorrow evening area wide as a persistent upper level low sinks south into southeast Arkansas.
Issued at 1219 PM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024 Upper-level ridging building over the Missouri Ozarks will allow for mostly dry weather through the work week.
621 PM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024 (Tonight through Monday night) Key Message: - Low chance of flash flooding over the Brush Country through tonight An elongated low located over eastern Mexico around the 700mb level from Pacific Post-Tropical Cyclone Ilena will continue to usher in mid-level moisture and funnel southeasterly Gulf moisture through tonight over portions of South Texas. The aforementioned low over Mexico will wash out and get replaced by a mid-level ridge Monday night, diminishing rain chances as PWATs fall below 2.
The chances of rain (>15%) remain south of TX-624 and 358 with the highest chances (60%) in the area south of LRD in the Rio Grande Plains.
(This evening through Tuesday night) A broad upper level low pressure system that has dominated the Southeastern CONUS for the past few days will continue to bring a risk of showers and thunderstorms to the forecast area through Tuesday evening.
Otherwise, a 500 mb high will linger well to the east of the region into Tuesday, with a 500 mb trough becoming negatively tilted as it shifts through the Central Rockies. Well above normal temperatures will continue, with highs into the middle to upper 80s inland today and Tuesday, and somewhat cooler near Lake Michigan with onshore winds.
At the low levels, a lee trough continues across eastern Colorado this afternoon. The lee trough will deepen through the day as a large UL trof carves out upstream of the FA. The combination of this moisture and the approaching UL wave will lead to the highest storm chances with pops greater than 40% for much of the FA. As a result, think the deterministic solutions are in line with the probabilistic sources and will continue with the higher pops for now.
remains under a blocking pattern aloft featuring high pressure over the NE U. and low pressure over the SE U. At the surface, a weak stationary frontal boundary extends across the central to southern half of the peninsula from a developing area of low pressure off the Carolinas coast, while ridging wedges its way south into the peninsula behind it. Daytime heating will lift/burn off the low clouds by late morning, however high cloudiness is likely to continue streaming east across the area through the day leading to mostly cloudy skies. PoPs and dew points look to decrease slightly as a result, before guidance suggests E-NE flow sets up over the state during the weekend between surface ridging extending southward into the SE U.
223 AM MDT Mon Sep 16 2024 - Very warm through Tuesday with elevated fire weather conditions - Strong storm system late Tuesday/Tuesday evening brings marginal/slight risk of severe weather - Pattern change end of the week with cooler weather likely 08z surface analysis had low over southeast MT with meso-low over K2WX per KUDX radar loop. Bigger picture has upper low over northern CA, which is the main concern for the short term. Tuesday, upper low ejects into eastern MT with pronounced synoptic forcing ahead of it per negative tilt. Buoyancy not that impressive ahead of cold front, but synoptic forcing should support high-based thunderstorms racing across WY into western SD.
Temperatures have remained on track or a degree or two warmer in spots. Afternoon high temps will reach the mid to upper 80s, slightly cooler in the 70s near Lake Michigan.
353 AM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024 High pressure centered northeast of the area will weaken. Low pressure will move northwest from the Atlantic coast into the central Appalachians before weakening by mid week.
(Today) Rain and thunderstorm chances will come to an end today as the Tennessee Valley is wedged between what once was Francine and a potential tropical cyclone just off the South Carolina Coast. Afternoon highs will range from the low to mid 80s over NW AL where the clouds will be slower to clear, to mid to upper 80s east.
As for the temperatures, the expected cloud coverage for today should keep the high temperatures a bit cooler than normal with the highs being in the upper 80s to low 90s. As for tomorrow, the high temperatures for Tuesday start to warm back up more as the cloud coverage is expected to be less, allowing for the temperatures to warm back up to the lower 90s for the region. The low temperatures on the other hand, will are expected to be about normal in the 70s for tonight.
An expansive area of surface ridging centered over the northeast US extends westward through Illinois. In the upper levels, a strong ~588 dm 500 mb high is anchored over the northeast CONUS with a pair of upper lows tied to tropical systems over the southeast US, creating a Rex blocking pattern. This will bring cooler overnight lows the next several days with temperatures bottoming out in the 50s or upper 40s. Potential tropical cyclone eight will move onshore the coast of the Carolinas tonight, though will come to a halt by midweek as it encounters strong ridging to the north.
(Today through Tuesday) As ridging aloft gradually builds over the area, most of the region will remain dry and warm today and Tuesday. The aforementioned ridging aloft will work against any more coverage than that. Given the low confidence and coverage we will only indicate a silent 10 pop.
We should see more significant clearing tomorrow evening area wide as a persistent upper level low sinks south into southeast Arkansas. Temperatures will trend warmer but should remain below the 90 degree mark.
305 AM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024 High pressure brings fair and mild weather to the region through Tuesday.
Pattern Synopsis: Expansive ridging will remain over most of the CONUS east of the Rockies through the duration of the period. Meanwhile, amplified troughing will dig along the Pacific coast and pivot towards the Rockies later today/tonight, working to further amplify the pattern downstream.
(Today and tonight) Another warm day in store will upper ridging aloft.
(Today and tonight) A deepening area of low pressure off the Carolina Coast has contributed to northeasterly surface winds across the area and will continue to do so today. Expect daytime highs generally in the low to mid 80s with overnight lows ranging from the mid 60s across the northern counties to the low 70s farther south.
A mid and upper level ridge continues to be over the Great Lakes Region and the Northeast. A strong sfc anticyclone is slowly moving east of the Gulf of Maine. With the ridging in place and warm temps aloft, it will be continued above normal, with highs into the low to middle 80s for valley areas on both Monday and Tuesday. Some clouds will start to increase on Tuesday night, as some moisture will start to spread northward, as the low pressure area moves inland across the mid Atlantic states.