Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Discussion: The warming trend will continue this afternoon as an anomalous 596dam H5 ridge shifts atop the region.
140 AM PDT Tue Aug 27 2024 * Warmer today with temperatures generally within a few degrees of season averages through the week. * Breezy across northeast CA and northwest NV this afternoon through Wednesday as a dry cold front brushes by the region. Nevada will reach into the low 90s with Sierra valleys nearing the 80 degrees.
Upper low will continue to push east- northeast through the night, with clearing skies in its wake. ------------------------------------------------------------------- Satellite shows distinct pinwheel of upper low over northern WY tracking NE. Strong upper dynamics associated with the system will spread east in front of the trough creating significant ascent over the area. The precipitation and thunderstorms will come to an end from west to east later this evening and through the overnight hours as the upper low moves into the Dakotas. BT An upper level closed low is forecast to move across northern MT early Wednesday morning. This will bring an associated cold front through the region beginning Wednesday morning for the west, tracking into SE MT into the evening.
307 AM EDT Tue Aug 27 2024 Dry high pressure will remain across the region through Wednesday and maintain hot and humid conditions.
(Today and tonight) An inverted trough was still moving inland across southeast Texas early this morning. The subsident air on the northwest side of the inverted trough will therefore remain in place overhead for today in addition to a lack of mid and upper level flow.
A closed mid-level low is inland over Southeast Central Texas and will continue to shift slowly west today with diminishing influence on deep South Texas and the lower RGV. That said, the West Gulf will remain convectively active, also at night, with mostly garden variety showers and rumbles moving over and along the Lower Texas Coast. Rip current risk will remain low and nearby tropical cyclone formation is negligible.
118 AM EDT Tue Aug 27 2024 Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected until sunset, mainly across the higher terrain of central and southern Vermont and the Adirondacks. Warmer and drier weather returns for Tuesday, with another round of rain likely Tuesday night into Wednesday.
407 AM EDT Tue Aug 27 2024 A return to dry weather today with a cold front crossing Wednesday into Wednesday night bringing another round of showers.
A strong upper high will be making its way today from the Mid- Mississippi Valley toward the Tennessee Valley today, and it will somewhat suppress convection north of a Dothan-Tifton line.
(Tonight through Wednesday night) Water vapor imagery this morning reveals an upper level low churning along the Texas coast. Several streams of vorticity will wrap around the low over the next few days, providing continued rain chances across the region. The upper low will drift slightly north but will remain close enough to influence the area. High temps today will top out in the upper 80s along the coast to the mid 90s out west as cloud cover and rain chances keep us "cooler".
/NEW/ /Tuesday and Wednesday/ An upper low centered over the Texas Hill Country will exhibit little movement today and Wednesday. /Issued 237 PM CDT Mon Aug 26 2024/ /Wednesday and Beyond/ Daily rain chances will continue through the end of the week as the region remains under the influence of a weak upper low spinning over the Edwards Plateau region.
The highs will remain in the low 90s for today and Wednesday and the lows will be in the mid to upper 70s inland and in the upper 70s to low 80s along the coasts.
(Today through Wednesday night) High pressure will continue to be given the boot as it's displaced by a pair of upper level troughs traversing the northern Plains.
422 AM EDT Tue Aug 27 2024 Hot conditions are expected for the region this week as high pressure and upper level ridging persist. A strong midlevel ridge remains centered just southwest of the Ohio Valley today. Records for Tuesday, August 27 (today) CVG 99 (1948) CMH 100 (1948) DAY 97 (1899, 1948) The overall synoptic setup described in the near term remains relatively unchanged tonight although mid level ridging may weaken a tad. Thus, chances for showers and storms remains on the low end for now. Another hot and fairly humid day is forecast for Wednesday with high pressure staying parked to the south and upper level ridging dominating. Forecast highs are in the lower to upper 90s with dew points getting into the 70s for most locations.
(This evening through Tuesday) Marine layer making a gradual return as of this morning after being effectively mixed out by the trough over the past few days. On that note, temperatures a bit warmer today than yesterday, as expected, and will lead us into the next couple of days of further warming.
1132 PM CDT Mon Aug 26 2024 (This evening through Tuesday Night) Northern periphery of the inverted mid level trof has made it to the Texas coast providing a much needed break from the heat and some rainfall.
0 inch range across the region, suggesting there is plenty of moisture for the atmosphere to tap into even though the high pressure will inhibit this to an extent. High temperatures will continue to be in the low to mid 90s with max heat indices of 104-110.
109 AM EDT Tue Aug 27 2024 Dry high pressure will remain across the region through the middle of the week and maintain hot and humid conditions.
1134 PM EDT Mon Aug 26 2024 An upper low will exit across the Maritimes tonight. High pressure will cross the region Tuesday. A cold front will cross the region Tuesday night into Wednesday.
For today we havea 500 mb small closed low that will be moving northeast from southwest ND into northeast ND early aftn and into southeast Manitoba this aftn.
Temperatures to the north of I-40 were running 2-3 degrees warmer than 24 hours ago, while to the south, little change was noted. Overall, expect a slightly warmer night across the board. Temperatures will approach the 100 degree mark on Tuesday and Wednesday as strong high pressure remains in place.
As the center of a 500 mb ridge moves toward the Tennessee Valley, temperatures should respond by increasing 2-3 deg F across most of the forecast area. As the ridge in the 850-700 mb layer transitions toward the Carolinas on Wednesday, the patch of residual drier air across northern Alabama will erode as deeper moisture is advected northward.
No major updates to the forecast have been made, a mostly dry cold front is on track to push through the Northern Rockies this afternoon and evening. Expect widespread west- southwest wind gusts of 25-35 mph, with the higher terrain, especially Glacier Park, having a >80% chance of gusts exceeding 35 mph. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will develop along the cold front, with precipitation generally focusing north of the Interstate 90 corridor.
The ridge continues to be centered north of Florida, over the eastern half of the U. Slight weakening of the ridge is expected as we approach the weekend, but with the ridge axis remaining to our north, easterly to southeasterly flow is expected throughout the forecast period.
201 AM MDT Tue Aug 27 2024 Upper level low that brought cool showery condition the last few days is shifting into the Dakotas this morning. In its wake a quickly developing ridge will build over the area. The heatwave lasts for one day as a strong, but mainly dry cold front pushes through the area during the day Wednesday. As the front moves east, downslope winds will dry the lower atmosphere and diminish precipitation chances to 20 percent at most.
1202 AM CDT Tue Aug 27 2024 (This evening through Wednesday) Pronounced upper ridge rmns in place acrs the MS River Valley, with max heights noted over eastern MO/western IL. This is the result of moisture assocd with an upper lvl low apchg the TX coastal region fm the east, around the southern periphery of the aforementioned upper high. Model solutions remain in good agreement today, taking the upper high center into the lower Ohio and Tennessee Valley regions into the middle of the week. A stray shower or storm cannot be ruled out over far western AR Wed aftn, as additional moisture increases on the western periphery of the upper high.
In the large scale high pressure was centered over the mid Mississippi valley and in south central California, with a storm system moving into the Pacific northwest and an easterly wave pushing westward across west central Texas. By late in the week and this weekend, the upper high currently over California shifts northeast into the northern Great Basin.
A very strong ridge centered over the Mid Ms Valley will move eastward through the next couple of days pushing temps upward a little each day. Strong subsidence under the ridge will keep the area rain-free and mostly cloud-free.
/Issued 1245 AM CDT Tue Aug 27 2024/ /Tuesday and Wednesday/ An upper low centered over the Texas Hill Country will exhibit little movement today and Wednesday.
1229 AM CDT Tue Aug 27 2024 High pressure is the primary meteorological feature driving the weather over the next couple of days, with attendant subsidence through the 500mb level.
140 AM PDT Tue Aug 27 2024 Warmer and drier conditions this week with cooler temperatures later this weekend, and periods of breezy winds.
This evening, a damping upper level disturbance will move into the Great Lakes helping push the upper ridge slightly further south, while at the surface, a weak trough will sag south across the Upper Midwest and serve as the focus for thunderstorm development late this afternoon and evening, initially over Iowa and northern Illinois. While deep layer shear is initially modest near the weak flow of the upper ridge, it is expected to increase enough as the ridge shifts south, enough to allow some organization of storms contributing to an attendant severe weather threat.
1237 AM CDT Tue Aug 27 2024 (This evening through Tuesday) An upper level low is moving onshore the middle Texas coast this afternoon. The aforementioned upper level low will track northwest toward West Central Texas on Tuesday. The lower heights aloft along with an increase in cloud cover should result in slightly cooler temperatures.
/16 ******** Previous ************************************ An upper level ridge will continue across the area through the period. This deep layer ridging will act to suppress most convection across the area along with keeping temps above normal. Lows tonight will be in the low to mid 70s inland to upper 70s along the coast. Highs on Tuesday will again be in the low to mid 90s.
This deep layer ridging will allow both high and low temperatures to remain about 3 to 7 degrees above normal most areas. Made slight upward adjustments to the NBM for the high temperatures today and Wednesday to account for the trend the past couple of days.
616 AM EDT Tue Aug 27 2024 Hot conditions are expected for the region this week as high pressure and upper level ridging persist. A strong midlevel ridge remains centered just southwest of the Ohio Valley today. Records for Tuesday, August 27 (today) CVG 99 (1948) CMH 100 (1948) DAY 97 (1899, 1948) The overall synoptic setup described in the near term remains relatively unchanged tonight although mid level ridging may weaken a tad. Thus, chances for showers and storms remains on the low end for now. Another hot and fairly humid day is forecast for Wednesday with high pressure staying parked to the south and upper level ridging dominating. Forecast highs are in the lower to upper 90s with dew points getting into the 70s for most locations.
A few of the high mountain valleys could drop below freezing for a short period this morning. Tomorrow a low pressure system passing north of the area will help draw moisture in from New Mexico. This will increase chances for afternoon showers mainly across the San Juans and the highway 160 corridor.
Warmer temperatures a few degrees above average today and Wednesday. Cooler temperatures expected towards the end of the week. Inland temps will generally be around 5-10 degrees above normal as a ridge of high pressure develops over the region. These warmer temperatures last through Wednesday, and will bring moderate HeatRisk to just a few interior portions of the CWA, otherwise HeatRisk is widely minor.
616 AM CDT Tue Aug 27 2024 (Today and tonight) An inverted trough was still moving inland across southeast Texas early this morning. The subsident air on the northwest side of the inverted trough will therefore remain in place overhead for today in addition to a lack of mid and upper level flow.
639 AM CDT Tue Aug 27 2024 - An upper low has brought showers and thunderstorms to North Dakota today.
457 AM CDT Tue Aug 27 2024 - An upper low has brought showers and thunderstorms to North Dakota today.
652 AM EDT Tue Aug 27 2024 A return to dry weather today with a cold front crossing Wednesday into Wednesday night bringing another round of showers.
Nearly dry conditions can be expected during the daylight hours today, with the exception bring our far northeastern counties as the 500mb trough glides across the area. The 500mb ridge will be overhead by from 06Z Wednesday onward. Wednesday evening, an upper level low moves across ND. The center of the surface level low passes directly over north central and northeastern SD during the evening and early overnight hours with a cold front extending to the south.
725 AM EDT Tue Aug 27 2024 The ridge continues to be centered north of Florida, over the eastern half of the U. Slight weakening of the ridge is expected as we approach the weekend, but with the ridge axis remaining to our north, easterly to southeasterly flow is expected throughout the forecast period.
Highs are still expected to reach the low 90s for most, with some mid 90s readings now possible from Orlando westward. Weak high pressure across the mid Atlc will continue to promote a light E/ESE wind flow (6-12 kts) across the local waters. A persistent pattern continues with light onshore (E/ESE) flow 6-12 kts thru the period as the ridge axis remains north of the local waters.
606 AM CDT Tue Aug 27 2024 (Today through Wednesday Night) The center of the H500 ridge will meander toward the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys through Wednesday with sfc ridging remaining across the SE US.
(Tuesday through Wednesday) Fair to partly cloudy this morning with lows nearing a landing point with slightly higher dew points in the low 70s for an average. Just a few spots from Magnolia to Ruston and Peason Ridge in Toledo Bend Country. And the good news is still that cooler highs are going to start showing up even by tomorrow for our southern tier of Counties and Parishes.
1022 AM EDT Tue Aug 27 2024 A return to dry weather today with a cold front crossing Wednesday into Wednesday night bringing another round of showers.
A weak weather disturbance will brush by to the north of our area Wednesday, bringing a weak cold front to northern Utah and southwest Wyoming, followed by a warming trend across the region late in the week.
High pressure to the north will sweep in lower PWATs across southeast Georgia today, with higher coverage forecast south of I-10 as PWATs remain near and above 2". A repeat of high temperatures today, with onshore winds keeping it in the mid to upper 80s near the coast, with highs reaching the lower 90s elsewhere.
1031 AM EDT Tue Aug 27 2024 High pressure will extend across the region through much of this week. Today: Aloft, the center of the large anticyclone will shift eastward into the Ohio Valley and the associated ridge will continue to build in across the Southeast. At the surface, the center of the high will increasingly become centered over the western Atlantic which will gradually promote a more onshore flow along the coast of the forecast area into the afternoon. With the influence of the ridging aloft, hi-res model solutions are consistent in showing less convection this afternoon compared to the last few days. Temperatures are forecast begin a warming trend, with highs reaching the low 90s away from the immediate coast. Tonight: Overall, it should be a quiet night with high pressure in control.
621 AM EDT Tue Aug 27 2024 Dry high pressure will remain across the region through Wednesday and maintain hot and humid conditions.
501 AM EDT Tue Aug 27 2024 A return to dry weather today with a cold front crossing Wednesday into Wednesday night bringing another round of showers.
A cold front pushing through this evening will bring scattered to widespread shower and thunderstorm chances. Dry and warmer conditions end the week. This trough will also bring gusty southwest/west winds to the region, mainly across Southwest MT. Later in the evening, a cold front will pass southeast through the region. Snow levels falling to 6,000ft Wednesday morning can result in minor snow accumulations (less than an inch) in the higher mountain peaks and mainly grassy surfaces. This upper closed low will also bring down colder air from up north, resulting in a drop in high temperatures to the upper 50s to upper 60s Wednesday.
Light rain showers with this is moving into DVL region as anticipated with other light rain showers on the north and west side of upper low back toward Minot and to Watford City. For today we havea 500 mb small closed low that will be moving northeast from southwest ND into northeast ND early aftn and into southeast Manitoba this aftn.
1042 AM EDT Tue Aug 27 2024 Dry high pressure will remain across the region through Wednesday and maintain hot and humid conditions.
643 AM CDT Tue Aug 27 2024 (Tuesday through Wednesday) Fair to partly cloudy this morning with lows nearing a landing point with slightly higher dew points in the low 70s for an average. Just a few spots from Magnolia to Ruston and Peason Ridge in Toledo Bend Country. And the good news is still that cooler highs are going to start showing up even by tomorrow for our southern tier of Counties and Parishes.
This increase in available moisture is due to a passing trough to our north continuing to push eastward, which is allowing a ridge across much of the region to strengthen. This area of high pressure will bring a weak, but sufficient southeasterly flow, enabling our chances for precipitation this week.
A trough moving over the PNW will maintain showers and below-normal temperatures for the area on Tuesday. High pressure will build Wednesday onward, allowing conditions to dry out and warm up into the weekend.
641 AM CDT Tue Aug 27 2024 (Tonight through Wednesday night) Water vapor imagery this morning reveals an upper level low churning along the Texas coast. Several streams of vorticity will wrap around the low over the next few days, providing continued rain chances across the region. The upper low will drift slightly north but will remain close enough to influence the area. High temps today will top out in the upper 80s along the coast to the mid 90s out west as cloud cover and rain chances keep us "cooler".
626 AM CDT Tue Aug 27 2024 (Today through Wednesday night) High pressure will continue to be given the boot as it's displaced by a pair of upper level troughs traversing the northern Plains.
745 AM EDT Tue Aug 27 2024 High pressure will extend across the region through much of this week. Today: Aloft, the center of the large anticyclone will shift eastward into the Ohio Valley and the associated ridge will continue to build in across the Southeast. At the surface, the center of the high will increasingly become centered over the western Atlantic which will gradually promote a more onshore flow along the coast of the forecast area into the afternoon. With the influence of the ridging aloft, hi-res model solutions are consistent in showing less convection this afternoon compared to the last few days. Temperatures are forecast begin a warming trend, with highs reaching the low 90s away from the immediate coast. Tonight: Overall, it should be a quiet night with high pressure in control.
Already, there is a nice mix of sun and clouds over the CWA in low level CAA underneath a closed low circulation aloft. Nearly dry conditions can be expected during the daylight hours today, with the exception bring our far northeastern counties as the 500mb trough glides across the area. The 500mb ridge will be overhead by from 06Z Wednesday onward. Wednesday evening, an upper level low moves across ND. The center of the surface level low passes directly over north central and northeastern SD during the evening and early overnight hours with a cold front extending to the south.
Barnes Previous Discussion: /Tuesday and Wednesday/ An upper low centered over the Texas Hill Country will exhibit little movement today and Wednesday.
In the upper levels, ridging extends from the Gulf of Mexico northwards into the Great Lakes. Closer to the surface, high pressure is centered across the Southern Appalachians into the Mid-Atlantic. The ridge continues to be centered north of Florida, over the eastern half of the U. Slight weakening of the ridge is expected as we approach the weekend, but with the ridge axis remaining to our north, easterly to southeasterly flow is expected throughout the forecast period.
At the surface, an Atlantic ridge extends into the Southeastern United States. The Keys are on the southern side of this ridge which is resulting in marine platforms observing mainly east breezes of 10 to 15 knots with Island Chain communities observing 10 to 15 mph. From synopsis, an Atlantic ridge stretching into the southeastern United States will slip southward across Florida by mid week. Breezes may freshen slightly late in the forecast due to a very subtle trough moving through the northwestern Caribbean Sea and the ridge axis lifting back north.
607 AM CDT Tue Aug 27 2024 - It will be cooler today, but the heat index may push close to 100 degrees in far southeast NE and southwest IA.
339 AM MDT Tue Aug 27 2024 KEY MESSAGES: - Weather pattern changes will prevail through the next few days, with warm conditions from the south today, followed by a cold front and low pressure system from the northwest overnight tonight. Upstream, a strong low pressure system over British Columbia will strengthen a big more and expand in area as it moves southeastward over our northern Rockies region tonight through Wednesday. Most model ensemble data keeps this system relatively dry for us, as most of the expected rain showers will be confined to the higher elevations of western and central Montana. Of greater impact will be the gusty and shifting winds associated with the approaching cold front.
541 AM MDT Tue Aug 27 2024 Upper level low that brought cool showery condition the last few days is shifting into the Dakotas this morning. In its wake a quickly developing ridge will build over the area. The heatwave lasts for one day as a strong, but mainly dry cold front pushes through the area during the day Wednesday. As the front moves east, downslope winds will dry the lower atmosphere and diminish precipitation chances to 20 percent at most.
1213 PM CDT Tue Aug 27 2024 (Today and tonight) An inverted trough was still moving inland across southeast Texas early this morning. The subsident air on the northwest side of the inverted trough will therefore remain in place overhead for today in addition to a lack of mid and upper level flow.
Arthur Upper level low that brought cool showery condition the last few days is shifting into the Dakotas this morning. In its wake a quickly developing ridge will build over the area. The heatwave lasts for one day as a strong, but mainly dry cold front pushes through the area during the day Wednesday. As the front moves east, downslope winds will dry the lower atmosphere and diminish precipitation chances to 20 percent at most.
Max temperatures will continue to run in the low to mid 90s with peak heat indices 103 to 110 (highest values over SW Florida) both today and Wednesday afternoon, so we will likely continue to flirt with heat advisory criteria over at least the southern half of the area.