Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
247 PM CST Thu Jan 25 2024 - Gloomy conditions continue through Friday - Peeks of Sun possible this weekend - Much warmer to end the month & start february. Temperatures will be a degree or two warmer tonight, which should keep most of the area above freezing, but a some slick spots are still likely across western Minnesota from freezing fog & mist.
1142 AM CST Thu Jan 25 2024 (Today and tonight) As of 3AM, water vapor imagery shows the upper trough entering western Oklahoma and western north Texas and radar shows a small area of showers (coincident with the upper low) drifting into western Oklahoma. The upper trough, along with rain chances, exit our FA by mid-morning.
Temperatures across the island chain are currently in the mid to upper 70s with dewpoints maxing out in the lower 70s. While breezes are currently elevated, they are expected to slacken by later this afternoon as high pressure near Bermuda continues to slide into the North Atlantic. Tonight and tomorrow will be more of the same winds, PoPs, and temperatures ahead of this weekend's next major cold front. From synopsis, a large high pressure system centered near Bermuda will continue to slide steadily east to southeast over the next several days. East to southeast breezes will slacken today through Friday as the high pushes towards the central North Atlantic.
Cold front passed through last night and showers ended everywhere except in Owyhee County and the western Magic Valley.
HREF still shows 150-300 J/Kg for areas south of I-40 and east of I-65 between 2 and 7 pm today as the upper low lifts to the north and tilts negatively. Showers will finally exit the mid state from west to east Thursday evening as a surface cold front crosses the area.
This high level cloud deck has thinned enough in the last few hours to allow for patches of blue skies to appear. With current temperatures along the island chain already in the upper 70s, the partial clearing of clouds should push temperatures up to the high of near 80 or perhaps a few degrees more. Tonight, breezes will stay out of the east to southeast and waffle between moderate to fresh as the high pressure centered near Bermuda stays the course drifting east into the North Atlantic. Since the wind direction is unchanged with no airmass shift in sight, temperatures are once again expected to fall just into the lower 70s as dewpoints stagnate in the upper 60s. Conditions will finally start to change this weekend as a cold front descends in from the midwest.
1154 AM CST Thu Jan 25 2024 (Today through Friday Night) A rather active short term period continues thanks to an upper level trough over the area allowing multiple disturbance to pass through. Severe weather chances are expected to remain on the low end with the main concern being isolated flash flooding due to the heavy rainfall on already saturated grounds. High temperatures are expected to be in the lower 50s to the upper 60s through the period with overnight lows in the upper 30s to lower 50s.
Residual moisture in place from the recent rainfall and new moisture advection ahead of the aforementioned trough will lead to another favorable fog setup again tonight, mainly off the Caprock. The aforementioned trough will also bring likely showers off the Caprock where it is most amplified downstream of its axis. A lesser chance of showers exists farther west, however mostly cloudy skies look to continue through the day Friday, with cooler temperatures ranging from the mid 40s in the northwest to upper 50s across the Rolling Plains.
Trough of low pressure will move through the region this evening. A transitional ridge of high pressure will build into the area on Friday. Upper level ridging will continue to be the dominant pattern, but a very weak trough will ride through the ridge on Sat/Sat Night. Some leftover snow showers will continue in the eastern highlands, but by Sun Night the ridge will dry things out. On Wed Night or Thu, this upper level ridge is expected to break down with the next incoming winter storm.
A low-level jet develops and strengthens over southwest/central OK late this evening and overnight tonight as a deepening upper-level trough moves over the Rockies/High Plains tonight. Mejia (Tomorrow through Thursday) A strong upper-level trough will dig south over the Southern High Plains first thing Friday morning. Latest model data shows the upper-level trough/low drifting eastward across southern OK, tracking farther south than previous forecast model runs.
Temperatures will warm as the sun comes out tomorrow afternoon warming much of western and central North Dakota to above freezing. The upper level pattern will remain in northwesterly flow as upper level ridge continues to progress from Western CONUS. This will continue to usher in warmer temperatures this weekend.
The highest confidence in widespread dense fog is in parts of northeast Missouri and west-central Illinois overnight tonight.
Dry weather is expected tonight across the Mid-South as a cold front moves out of the region.
Weak upper level troughing continues through tomorrow bringing breezy surface wind conditions for North Central and Central Montana and light mountain snowfall for Southwest Montana higher terrain. Up to 2 inches can occur for the higher terrain of the Madison Range and Centennial Mountains. Upper level ridging builds back in for the region this weekend bringing well above normal high temperatures for us and dry conditions.
Will issue a dense fog advisory across central and east-central Kansas this evening through Friday morning, generally along and north of Highway 56, where short-range ensemble guidance has the highest fog potential. The only potential for borderline freezing fog and associated patchy slick roads will be over portions of central and north-central Kansas late tonight into Friday morning, where temperatures may dip near the freezing mark.
612 PM CST Thu Jan 25 2024 Dry weather is expected tonight across the Mid-South as a cold front moves out of the region.
546 PM CST Thu Jan 25 2024 - Gloomy conditions continue through Friday - Peeks of Sun possible this weekend - Much warmer to end the month & start february. Temperatures will be a degree or two warmer tonight, which should keep most of the area above freezing, but a some slick spots are still likely across western Minnesota from freezing fog & mist.
While this activity will mostly remain over the higher terrain, a few locations along the immediate foothills (Red Lodge) could see a quick shot of light snow or mixed precipitation this evening (low chance). By Friday night, heights will begin to rise across the area as a ridge builds in from the west. While this is happening, lee-side troughing is expected to develop allowing gap winds to pick up at Livingston.
540 PM CST Thu Jan 25 2024 Dry weather is expected tonight across the Mid-South as a cold front moves out of the region.
Tonight and Friday Low pressure moving from the Gulf States to the Northern Ohio Valley will bring light rain to much of the area tonight through Friday. Temperatures and dewpoints will likely stay at or above freezing over all but the far north tonight, so the threat of significant freezing rain looks low at this point. Temperatures will vary little tonight and Friday due to the cloud cover and light rain, staying mostly in the lower to middle 30s. Forecast soundings indicate the p-type will be based on the boundary layer temps as they will be hovering around freezing, resulting in a mix of rain and snow. However, further west and north, forecast soundings indicate mid-level moisture decreasing, leaving the chance for drizzle or freezing drizzle.
556 PM CST Thu Jan 25 2024 (Tonight through Friday night) Key Message: -Cold front to move through Friday night. -Patchy to areas of fog both tonight and Friday night A mid-level trough developing today over the Great Basin and High Plains will dig and move east through Texas in the short term period. This will bring a cold front through Deep South Texas on Friday night. While most of the forecast will remain dry, we could see a few coastal showers tonight thanks to a weak coastal trough, but chances remain between 15 and 20 percent. Warmer conditions are expected Friday ahead of tomorrow nights cold front with highs in the mid to upper 70s. Portions of the mid Valley could reach the low 80s.
Seasonably cool and drier air will enter behind the cold front Friday night, scouring all of the shallow moisture and ending the threat for fog.
208 PM MST Thu Jan 25 2024 - Dense freezing fog will return to areas generally east of the Colorado border tonight into midday Friday.
Friday night, the next upper trof currently in the New Mexico area will close off and track across north Tx. Its associated dryline/prefrontal trof will move into the area in the evening. Cold front itself, and drier cooler air won't be too far behind and pass through during the late night hours.
A cold front has moved through Memphis and is currently oriented just south of the I-40 corridor.
Fair and warmer weather arrives later Friday through the weekend and persists into next work week. The trough is moving southeastward into northern Arizona this afternoon. Areas that experience these heavy showers could pick up a quick inch or two of snow, but the heaviest accumulations are still forecast to remain at the higher elevations of the Kaibab Plateau and Chuska Mountains where Winter Weather Advisories are in effect (Kaibab through 11 PM, Chuskas through 11 AM Fri). The trough will be east of the state by Friday afternoon with a drier northwest flow developing, but still cool.
An upper level trough over the Great Basin is on its way to bring chances for rain showers and high mountain elevation snow showers later this afternoon and into the late night. 04 inches and 2-3 inches of snow at the mountain ridgetops mainly in the White Mountains. By the morning, the system will clear out and bring about warming temperatures and mostly sunny skies for the rest of the weekend due to a building 500mb ridge over the region.
Speaking of precipitation, scattered to widespread light to moderate showers will build in from the southwest tomorrow morning, overspreading most of the area by afternoon (this driven by the approach of the next upper low).
Freezing fog will develop in some valley locations late this evening and into the early morning hours Friday.
Another warm day is expected once again on Friday with afternoon highs reaching into the lower 80s for most, with locations along the coast remaining in the 70s.
421 PM MST Thu Jan 25 2024 1) Mountain snow returns today with the potential up to 4 inches of accumulation in the higher elevations through Friday.
A deep, broad trough over the northern Pacific Ocean has been ejecting smaller troughs into the storm track towards Montana for several days now, and it will continue through the rest of this week. The orientation of this trough is such that it will allow for a semi-continuous tap into the subtropical airmass northwards into the western U. Today's weak trough will be out of the area by tonight, but in its wake northwest flow will keep mountain showers going along the Idaho/Montana border and in the Glacier region through Friday morning. A warm front Friday night will usher in much milder air aloft (think 40s at around 5000 feet MSL).
Most of the precip is expected to exit to the northeast this evening, but there could still be some more showers or storms popping up until the system's cold front moves through. Another mid/upper level wave currently dropping into the aforementioned longwave trough from the west will be lifting northeast Friday and Friday night, with the entirety of the trough on the move this time.
Mostly clear skies tonight as an upper level ridge builds over the region. This has allowed areas of dense fog to form in the Lower Treasure Valley, Upper Weiser Basin and Baker Valley. Fog has been persistent in the Lower Treasure Valley and Upper Weiser Basin most of today which isn't likely to change overnight tonight. In addition, surface temperatures around freezing within the fog could allow for patches of ice to form on cold surfaces. The fog will likely last into early Friday afternoon dissipating with the approaching warm front.
The main cold front still is well to our northwest and stretches from north central Tennessee southwest into northern Mississippi. Temperatures right behind along/just behind this front drop into the lower to mid 50s. After 1 AM, expect winds to become light and variable as the front pushes through northwestern Alabama and high pressure begins building east into the area. The front will bring some cooler air into the area likely dropping temperatures into the lower to mid 50s by daybreak on Friday.
(Today) Areas of fog will persist this morning along with patchy light drizzle ahead of upper low, currently moving over southern NM. (Tonight through Thursday) Areas of light to moderate rain will spread across the remainder of the area tonight as upper low tracks near the Red River.
In the upper levels a large trough in the 500 mb layer is moving through central New Mexico with an area of PVA moving into northwest Texas. As far as the fog for today the trends have been that mainly between the highway 83 and 183 corridors will see the dense fog through about 10 am and then quickly diminish as the storm system and rain approaches. Tonight the rain should quickly exit after sunset and before the subsidence behind the low comes in from the west we should see a brief timeframe between midnight and sunrise of some fog developing mainly along and east of the highway 283 corridor. Some of this fog could be dense at times but as the subsidence and some mixing in the lower levels moves in by sunrise we should see this fog quickly fade.
Meanwhile, winds will remain westerly on Friday, then shift to the NW Friday night, so temperatures will only be nominally cooler following yesterday's fropa.
1259 AM EST Fri Jan 26 2024 Weak high pressure will try to build in from the west today, providing a break in rain.
An upper-level composite analysis this evening reveals a deep, warm anticyclone centered over the Windward Passage and acting as the dominant large-scale atmospheric entity over the Greater Antilles, Caribbean basin, and Florida Peninsula. Currently, conditions in Keys island communities are seasonably mild and moderately humid, with air temperatures in the mid 70s and dewpoint temperatures in the lower 70s. A large high pressure system centered near Bermuda will continue to slide steadily east to southeast over the next several days. East to southeast breezes will slacken through Friday as the high pushes towards the central North Atlantic.
1033 PM CST Thu Jan 25 2024 (Tonight through Friday night) Key Message: -Cold front to move through Friday night. -Patchy to areas of fog both tonight and Friday night A mid-level trough developing today over the Great Basin and High Plains will dig and move east through Texas in the short term period. This will bring a cold front through Deep South Texas on Friday night. While most of the forecast will remain dry, we could see a few coastal showers tonight thanks to a weak coastal trough, but chances remain between 15 and 20 percent. Warmer conditions are expected Friday ahead of tomorrow nights cold front with highs in the mid to upper 70s. Portions of the mid Valley could reach the low 80s.
Fair and warmer weather arrives later Friday through the weekend and persists into next work week. Water vapor loop is showing a low pressure circulation over northern Apache and Navajo counties. Clearing over the high country will allow the temperature to drop later tonight. The trough is moving southeastward into northern Arizona this afternoon. Areas that experience these heavy showers could pick up a quick inch or two of snow, but the heaviest accumulations are still forecast to remain at the higher elevations of the Kaibab Plateau and Chuska Mountains where Winter Weather Advisories are in effect (Kaibab through 11 PM, Chuskas through 11 AM Fri). The trough will be east of the state by Friday afternoon with a drier northwest flow developing, but still cool.
952 PM MST Thu Jan 25 2024 1) Mountain snow returns today with the potential up to 4 inches of accumulation in the higher elevations through Friday.
Low pressure (1007 MB) tracking through northwest Ohio early this morning, allowing heavier showers to taper off by 12z.
911 PM CST Thu Jan 25 2024 Updated to issue a Dense Fog Advisory along and west of the Mississippi River, west of a cold front located just south of the Interstate 40 corridor. A cold front has moved through Memphis and is currently oriented just south of the I-40 corridor.
Little overall change to the pattern today with the southeasterly flow around high pressure well out in the Atlantic Ocean continuing to bring warm moist air into the area.
Precipitation will become more showery with mainly mountain snow and rain/snow showers in the lower valleys Thursday into Friday.
In fact, satellite imagery depicts these cigs have been very stubborn to erode or drift W, although this may change late as weak sfc ridging may try to bridge SE through the Ozarks into portions of the Lower MS Valley. The short term progs continue to suggest that the FG will be slow to burn off Friday morning, before elevated cigs quickly develop by afternoon once large scale forcing increases ahead the next digging trough that will progress through NM overnight, and into the Srn Plains Friday afternoon. Thus, convection will gradually increase by mid to late afternoon, especially near an inverted low level trough that will spread back NW from the Lower Toledo Bend Country across NCntrl/NE LA.
1101 PM CST Thu Jan 25 2024 - Gloomy conditions continue through Friday - Peeks of Sun possible this weekend - Much warmer to end the month & start february. Temperatures will be a degree or two warmer tonight, which should keep most of the area above freezing, but a some slick spots are still likely across western Minnesota from freezing fog & mist.
1140 PM CST Thu Jan 25 2024 Updated to issue a Dense Fog Advisory along and west of the Mississippi River, west of a cold front located just south of the Interstate 40 corridor. Dry weather is expected tonight across the Mid-South as a cold front moves out of the region.
A low pressure system will track from the Lower Mississippi Valley into east Tennessee tonight through Saturday bringing another round of rain and a few thunderstorms to the Mid-South.
218 AM MST Fri Jan 26 2024 - Most snow comes to an end today though some lingering snow showers over the higher terrain not out of the question. - High pressure starts building over the weekend as a warmup begins. By the afternoon hours, plenty of sun is expected except for the mountains, they'll still have to deal with some thicker clouds High temps will be similar to yesterday, maybe 2 to 4 degrees cooler thanks to northerly flow, but nothing too drastic expected. Models remain in excellent agreement that high pressure will start building in tomorrow and beyond.
532 AM CST Fri Jan 26 2024 - Freezing drizzle and patchy dense fog this morning are causing travel impacts including low visibility and slick roadways. - Stratus, mist, fog, and freezing drizzle are possible once more tonight, especially for the Red River Valley and points east.
Wetter weather has resumed tonight as an omega block pattern sets up nationally, with a persistent trough over the northwest US bringing plenty of moisture up from the southwest in an atmospheric river. Currently, widespread showers are moving eastwards into the region ahead of a warm front offshore, which will bring steady rain as it lifts northeast through the day.
We still have some snow out there this morning, although coverage and intensity continues to decrease as the trough causing it continues to move to the east. A few showers will linger into the morning hours but by noon all should be done as ridging builds into the state.
Land-based observation sites have temperatures generally in the lower 70s, however, some more protected areas (such as the backyard of the NWS office) have radiated down to near 70 degrees. As the high continues to drift further to the east to southeast, the pressure gradient across the region will relax, allowing for winds to slacken further.
High pressure will remain in control over the area tonight into Saturday. Saturday a upper level trough will move across Oklahoma into Arkansas.
at 0930z this morning, freezing fog was limited to parts of Norton and Graham counties. For the remainder of the morning, RAP/HRRR visibility forecasts show the freezing fog moving west toward Highway 25 before retreating to the east in the afternoon and dissipating around sunset. Otherwise, for today, we'll be watching the precipitation shield associated with a low pressure system that moves across the Lubbock area. Tonight, stratus/freezing fog (possibly dense) redevelops across Norton/Graham/Gove counties. Low temperatures look to be in the lower to middle 20s. NAM/SREF/GEM/GFS/GEFS models continue to advertise increasing 500mb heights moving into the area from the west as broad upper level ridging moves toward the area.
519 AM CST Fri Jan 26 2024 (Today) Areas of fog will persist this morning along with patchy light drizzle ahead of upper low, currently moving over southern NM.
353 AM CST Fri Jan 26 2024 - Freezing drizzle and patchy dense fog this morning are causing travel impacts including low visibility and slick roadways. - Stratus, mist, fog, and freezing drizzle are possible once more tonight, especially for the Red River Valley and points east.
A dusting to 1 inch of snow is possible near Guadalupe Peak and The Bowl, but should not impact US 62/180 and the lower elevations where it will just rain. The associated upper trough will pivot overhead today with another round of showers and storms wrapping around the backside of the system this afternoon. Rain will end this evening across the eastern Permian Basin with a cold front to follow. Northerly winds will bring a cooler airmass in with most locations only seeing highs in the 50s Saturday.
Recent GOES-16 WV and RAP 500-mb analysis showed an amplifying trough moving from the southern Rockies into the southern Plains. Further southwest of this feature, an upper- level ridge was overhead the Pacific Northwest into southern California. Currently, dense fog persists across portions of south central into central and north central Nebraska, with the lowest visibilities reported at O'Neill and. Upper-level height rises tonight will allow clouds to begin to clear out with lows falling into the low 20s.
420 AM PST Fri Jan 26 2024 High pressure aloft will strengthen through the weekend.
Short-term guidance and satellite continues to indicate that the westward expansion of the stratus deck appears unlikely for areas along the Highway 83 corridor. Recent GOES-16 WV and RAP 500-mb analysis showed an amplifying trough moving from the southern Rockies into the southern Plains. Further southwest of this feature, an upper- level ridge was overhead the Pacific Northwest into southern California. Currently, dense fog persists across portions of south central into central and north central Nebraska, with the lowest visibilities reported at O'Neill and Broken Bow. Upper-level height rises tonight will allow clouds to begin to clear out with lows falling into the low 20s.
A mid/upper level low will move east across West Texas today bringing chances of rain and thunderstorms to the forecast area. Precipitation will begin to expand in coverage through the day, with increasing chances of rain showers over the rest of the forecast area as the center of the mid/upper level low moves overhead. This also where we expect the highest rain amounts with totals generally around a half inch but some areas could see up to an inch total if convective showers can manage to move over the same areas.
With this system being more progressive, there is also a narrow window of light freezing rain across northwest Oklahoma Saturday morning. The overall chances of seeing snow in north central Oklahoma and freezing rain in northwest Oklahoma are low (15%) at this time.