Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
135 AM EDT Fri Sep 27 2024 High pressure will build across the Great Lakes, providing fair and dry weather through Friday. High pressure will ridge into the region overnight. High pressure to our north will keep Friday rain free, however clouds will continue to move northward across the area during the day. Highs will mainly be in the lower 70s, but will forecast will hedge slightly on the cool side of model guidance due to the extensive cloud cover. While there remains high confidence that high pressure to our north will keep the center of its remnant circulation well to our south, moisture from the very large hurricane will be able to spread into our region.
902 PM PDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Subtle warming will occur through Saturday as high pressure over the Southwest dominates.
The upper low will eventually pull it back to the northwest, and it will remain a powerful extratropical cyclone across Kentucky and Tennessee tonight. As the upper low drifts southeastward in response to Helene lifting northwestward, wraparound moisture and light shower activity will move back in from the northwest this afternoon and evening. On Saturday, post-tropical Helene will be vertically stacked with the upper low centered over the Mid-South. Showers will remain possible in the northern counties near the upper low with lingering wraparound moisture, while warming temperatures are expected across the southern counties.
Very warm and dry conditions continue across the Southwest as high pressure dominates.
252 AM EDT Fri Sep 27 2024 Low pressure crossing the area early this morning will continue southeast to a position over Nova Scotia late today.
1251 AM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024 (Tonight through Friday night) High pressure will continue to settle southward over the area tonight and Friday.
(Today through Saturday) The ridging pattern weakened slightly overnight but will get a slight recharge today through Saturday as Hurricane Helene weakens and gets absorbed into the upper low holding steady over the mid- Mississippi Valley. The upper low will deepen and wobble slightly as the tropical cyclone infused into the larger system, leaving a slight boost in northerly winds over Central TX for the next two days.
The axis of a highly anomalous ridge is pushing over the area today, and the surface pressure trough located near the WY/NE border is pulling westerly downslope flow across most of southeast Wyoming. An associated weak cold front will manage to come this far south later this afternoon and evening, bringing a brief period of gusty north to northeast winds over the High Plains. The ridge will firmly take hold again this weekend through, pushing temperatures up by a few degrees for Saturday.
1214 AM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024 (This evening through Friday) Clear skies and light winds will continue through this evening under an upper ridge, with high temperatures today reaching the mid-to- upper 80s and overnight lows in the mid-to-upper 50s. Sunny skies will persist Friday and rising upper heights will allow for slightly warmer temperatures, potentially near 90 in some locations.
Latest model projections bring the center of the low into NE Tennessee by 15Z, with the low center then turning northwestward into KY, then curving back toward TN, and ending up near Land-between-the-Lakes by 06Z Saturday. So surface winds are going be all over the place based on the movement of the low.
Forecasts for this period, will continue to reflect expected interactions between an upper level low now centered over the Missouri bootheel, and the accelerating tropical system (Helene) approaching the Florida big bend region.
This line may bring a couple of sprinkles to the Lower Keys if it can hold itself together.
343 AM EDT Fri Sep 27 2024 High pressure across the Great Lakes will provide dry weather through today. High pressure across the Great Lakes will maintain dry weather today, although higher level cloud cover associated with tropical moisture from Helene will continue to spread northward. A closed low will meander across the Ohio Valley while an upper level ridge slowly pushes east of the region this weekend.
After lows this morning in the low to mid 50s in some places, surface will continue to build into the area.
(Today) Mid and upper-level cloud cover will increase later this morning and spread east-to-west today as remnants from tropical cyclone Helene get absorbed by an upper-level cut-off low, currently centered over Memphis, TN. Kept the highest PoPs (optimistically around 30-40%) across Carroll, Madison, and Franklin counties in AR, but PoPs may need to be adjusted lower if model/ensemble trends continue to lower. Gusts up to 35 mph may be more frequent over the higher terrain in northwest AR. High temperatures will rise into the low-mid 80s across eastern OK and west-central AR.
with the highest momentum air remaining to the N/NE of the low. The winds will gradually decrease late tonight into Saturday as the low steadily fills.
1220 AM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024 - Dry conditions expected over the next 7 days - Gradual warming trend through the weekend As of 215 PM, the stretch of quiet weather is continuing today with upper level ridging expanding across the Plains. The lone exception is southeast KS, where diurnal cumulus have formed on the western periphery of a cutoff upper low. An interesting weather scenario will play out later tonight and into the weekend with the remnants of Hurricane Helene interacting with the aforementioned cutoff upper low. Meanwhile, temperatures will continue to gradually increase through the weekend with highs returning to the low to mid 80s.
1231 AM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024 (This afternoon through Friday night) Ridging remains in place and will keep us dry for the foreseeable future. A weak cold front arrives late Friday and basically just keeps everything the same as it has been.
Aside from likely (55-90% chance) rain showers along the Washington Cascade crest late this evening through tonight as a Pacific frontal system (warm front with trailing cold front) moves onshore and weakens, dry weather is forecast through the period. The frontal system will usher in locally breezy southwest to west winds along exposed ridges of the Simcoe Highlands and east slopes of the Washington Cascades overnight, but the probability of advisory- level gusts is low (30-40% chance).
- A return to cooler, more seasonable weather is forecast for the first few days of October behind a cold front. Today: SPC mesoanalysis and GOES WV imagery showed a large cut- off upper low centered over the Lower Mississippi Valley near western Tennessee and northwest Arkansas. A weakening post-tropical Helene will stay to our southeast over the weekend as ridging aloft builds into the Midwest.
With that said, strong wind gusts will be possible, as the highest gusts within showers/storms may reach up to around 40-50 mph. Nevertheless, sufficient remnant moisture should allow for several showers and thunderstorms to spawn; the highest coverage is anticipated over southwest portions of Florida. Maximum temperatures will reach the low 90s with dewpoints in the upper 70s, allowing for heat indices to reach as a high as 105 to 110 degrees.
An upper-level ridge is forecast to dominate the Southwest through at least the next 7 days. The structure of this ridge will wobble around each day, causing very slight fluctuations in our forecast.
1109 PM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Very nice weather ongoing across the area this afternoon as drier air continues to spread southward in the wake of an overnight cold front. Northerly winds have been somewhat gusty amid a tightening pressure gradient between high pressure stretching from the Great Lakes southwest to Texas and what is now Major Hurricane Helene over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Under sunny to mostly sunny skies, temperatures are in the lower to middle 80s across the region. Overnight lows tonight will be a little cooler than last night, with temperatures falling into the lower 60s across much of the area. Friday night low temps are expected to be in the low to middle 60s, which is right in line with late September normals.
341 AM EDT Fri Sep 27 2024 - Becoming windy today into early tonight; winds 20 to 35 mph with the highest wind gusts to 50 mph south of US 30.
Drier and warmer weather returns to the region for Friday and Saturday, with temperatures peaking on Saturday.
1106 PM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 (This evening through Friday Night) High pressure will continue to build across the Southern Plains as the departing frontal boundary moves well offshore. Mostly clear skies, light north winds and low humidity will lead to a cooler night.
Upper low remains stationary in the middle of the Mississippi Valley while Hurricane Helene continues to head toward the Florida panhandle. Upper ridging holds strong from northern Mexico through the Northern Plains. With the ridge dominating over the local area, this keeps the quiet weather pattern in place. Mid/high cloud cover should increase in eastern KS Friday and Saturday as the hurricane tracks north and phases into the other upper low.
Deterministic and ensemble members in the 500mb heights, show most of the upper longwave pattern north of Oregon and high pressure building over our CWA and the mountain west.
Early morning satellite imagery/RAP analysis also showed the circulation around a closed low spinning over north Mississippi. This low has been wrapping around dry air aloft over our CWA but shows signs of finally bringing some moisture associated with Helene into northwest Mississippi. The closed low is progged to shift east northeast today over northern Alabama and merge with the remnants of Helene tonight over the Tennessee valley. This highest wind gusts perhaps of 30- 35mph will be over the northeast portions of our CWA. The breezy northwest wind, rain chances and associated cloud cover will likely hold temperatures in the 70s over the northeast third of the CWA with cooler than normal highs in the 80s to the southwest.
408 AM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024 - The highest rain chances (50-90%) will occur this afternoon across the eastern Ozarks. Winds will start to increase by late morning with the highest gusts occurring in the afternoon hours. Areas east of Springfield have the higher chances (over 70%) while areas west of Springfield are much lower in the 10-15% range. Saturday: Low-end rain chances (10-20%) will stick around for areas along and east of Highway 63 as the low pressure system slowly pushes east. High temperatures will reach the lower 80s west of I-49 with the rest of the area sitting in the 70s.
631 AM EDT Fri Sep 27 2024 High pressure across the Great Lakes will provide dry weather through today. High pressure across the Great Lakes will maintain dry weather today, although higher level cloud cover associated with tropical moisture from Helene will continue to spread northward. A closed low will meander across the Ohio Valley while an upper level ridge slowly pushes east of the region this weekend.
627 AM EDT Fri Sep 27 2024 Low pressure crossing the area early this morning will continue southeast to a position over Nova Scotia late today.
Strengthening high pressure a aloft will be the main feature dictating the sensible weather conditions across the Borderland Region through the period. High pressure will continue building in across New Mexico through the day, leading to quiet weather conditions and above average warmth across the desert lowlands. A weak and relatively cooler airmass will infiltrate the area this weekend. Upper level high pressure over the region with warm/above average temperatures and dry conditions will be the theme through the weekend.
608 AM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024 (Today) Mid and upper-level cloud cover will increase later this morning and spread east-to-west today as remnants from tropical cyclone Helene get absorbed by an upper-level cut-off low, currently centered over Memphis, TN. Kept the highest PoPs (optimistically around 30-40%) across Carroll, Madison, and Franklin counties in AR, but PoPs may need to be adjusted lower if model/ensemble trends continue to lower. Gusts up to 35 mph may be more frequent over the higher terrain in northwest AR. High temperatures will rise into the low-mid 80s across eastern OK and west-central AR.
High temperatures remain well above normal (10 to 15 degrees) for late September thanks to a stagnant upper-level ridge overhead.
High pressure contiues to dominate the region leading to record breaking high temperatures. This high pressure pattern is expected to persist for the next several days however today and tomorrow will be the hottest days. Min relative humidities will be in the teens for the lower elevations and the middle 20s for the higher elevations.
608 AM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024 (Today through Saturday) The ridging pattern weakened slightly overnight but will get a slight recharge today through Saturday as Hurricane Helene weakens and gets absorbed into the upper low holding steady over the mid- Mississippi Valley. The upper low will deepen and wobble slightly as the tropical cyclone infused into the larger system, leaving a slight boost in northerly winds over Central TX for the next two days.
738 AM EDT Fri Sep 27 2024 - Becoming windy today into early tonight; winds 20 to 35 mph with the highest wind gusts to 50 mph south of US 30.
The high clouds will lower and thicken from the south tonight through the weekend with parts of western New York receiving some nuisance showers. High pressure across the Great Lakes will maintain dry weather today, although higher level cloud cover associated with tropical moisture from Helene will continue to spread northward. A closed low will meander across the Ohio Valley while an upper level ridge slowly pushes east of the region this weekend.
1031 AM EDT Fri Sep 27 2024 Dry weather returns into the weekend as high pressure moves overhead.
641 AM EDT Fri Sep 27 2024 Dry weather returns into the weekend as high pressure moves overhead.
544 AM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024 - The highest rain chances (50-90%) will occur this afternoon across the eastern Ozarks. Winds will start to increase by late morning with the highest gusts occurring in the afternoon hours. Areas east of Springfield have the higher chances (over 70%) while areas west of Springfield are much lower in the 10-15% range. Saturday: Low-end rain chances (10-20%) will stick around for areas along and east of Highway 63 as the low pressure system slowly pushes east. High temperatures will reach the lower 80s west of I-49 with the rest of the area sitting in the 70s.
234 AM PDT Fri Sep 27 2024 A little more warming will occur through Saturday as high pressure over the Southwest becomes centered over Arizona.
549 AM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024 - The highest rain chances (50-90%) will occur this afternoon across the eastern Ozarks. Winds will start to increase by late morning with the highest gusts occurring in the afternoon hours. Areas east of Springfield have the higher chances (over 70%) while areas west of Springfield are much lower in the 10-15% range. Saturday: Low-end rain chances (10-20%) will stick around for areas along and east of Highway 63 as the low pressure system slowly pushes east. High temperatures will reach the lower 80s west of I-49 with the rest of the area sitting in the 70s.
1045 AM EDT Fri Sep 27 2024 Low pressure will exit across the Maritimes today.
/NEW/ Update: Favorable radiational cooling is resulting in a sizable temperature disparity this morning, with 5 AM temperatures ranging from the upper 60s to the lower 50s across the CWA. -Stalley Previous Discussion: /Through Saturday/ A stagnant weather pattern will persist into the weekend due to the blocking implications of Helene on the mid-level flow regime. The low dewpoints will allow overnight lows to fall very effectively, with a handful of readings in the 50s possible outside of urban environments.
Will continue to see an increase in various AC cigs from the N this afternoon, as an upper low and attendant trough wobbles/sinks S across the Lower MS Valley through the TAF period. The lower AC cigs will eventually affect the SW AR/N LA terminals by mid/late afternoon, although some lower cu cigs should affect ELD/MLU by mid to late evening, before eventually lifting overnight as the upper trough swings through. The AC/cirrus cigs will diminish from NW to SE by the end of the TAF period with the departure of the upper trough, with a scattered cu field developing by mid/late morning over SW AR/extreme NE TX before eventually spreading farther S into Lower E TX/N LA for the afternoon.
With light northerly winds continuing to support cool/dry advection and clear skies promoting efficient cooling, we should see low temperatures overnight bottom out in the lower to mid 60s inland and the lower 70s along the immediate coast. Daytime highs should reach the upper 80s to lower 90s, with the highest temperatures expected just to the west of the Greater Houston area.
However, an area of high pressure should keep much of Central New York dry with just a few showers and sprinkles are possible.
(This afternoon through Saturday night) Deep northerly flow continues across the region as we remain caught between upper ridging to our west and a large, cut-off low (remnants of TS Helene) over the Mississippi River Valley. This flow regime will usher in a weak cold front overnight, but don't look for any major cooldown. Due to the front arriving near our coolest time of the morning, elevated winds and mixing will keep temperatures warmer than what we've see the last few days.
Cooler, more seasonal weather is in store this weekend. (Today and tonight) A high pressure ridge is causing the marine layer to compress to around 500 ft. After the fog mixes out, ample sunshine and high pressure will help contribute to a warm afternoon.
Tonight and Saturday: The remnants of Helene should be absorbed into an upper level trough over the Tennessee Valley tonight and Saturday.
It is then forecast to be absorbed into a broad upper low over the southeastern CONUS that shift northeast later this afternoon into Saturday. As this occurs, models are showing 850 winds increase along a trough axis that extend southwest from this broad upper low this afternoon and early this evening. Most guidance keeps the better and deep moisture mainly in southern middle Tennessee and further north in association with the upper low and better forcing/deeper moisture associated with it.
Otherwise a pretty quiet day here in southern Oregon and northern California as highs end up a few degrees warmer than normal for late September. A thermal trough will also start to develop today, bringing gusty northerly winds to all waters and stronger gusts south of Cape Blanco.
1129 AM EDT Fri Sep 27 2024 Tropical Cyclone Helene will move quickly north through Georgia this morning, bringing continued heavy rainfall, significant flooding and strong winds to our area. Abundant low-level moisture will persist over western North Carolina along with 40-50 kt winds near the ridgetops, so new additional upslope precip can't be ruled out for the remainder of the day until midlevel dry slot strengthens and some subsidence develops. Flash Flood Emergencies continue across many areas near the Blue Ridge Escarpment and across most of the northern mountains, due to continuing runoff and rivers still rising. As of 310 am Friday: Stacked low pressure over the TN/OH Valley will steadily weaken while moving very little during the short term.
(Through Saturday) The remnants of Helene will merge with an upper level low over TN/KY by this evening.
(This evening through Saturday) Dry northerly flow remains the story aloft through Saturday east of a large blocking high anchored over Arizona. At the surface, a N-S ridge axis currently just east of our forecast area will shift west tonight and remain with us through Saturday. Accompanying this ridge will be lower thicknesses for Saturday, so high temps should end up a few degrees cooler than today on E-NE winds.
High pressure keeps the fair weather over the Silver State in place into the weekend. Upper 80s for daytime highs on Friday will increase into the low 90s on Saturday when a few record high temperatures could be in jeopardy. Ridging over the western CONUS persists into the last weekend of the month. A closed low associated with a short wave resides off the southern California coast on Friday. Southwesterly upper level flow will increase gradually into Saturday as the pressure gradient tightens in response to the low beginning to push east towards the SW CONUS. 500-mb model guidance places a center of high pressure to the east over western Utah helping southerly flow increase temperatures to 15-20 above normal Friday and into the weekend.
453 PM EDT Fri Sep 27 2024 Low pressure will exit across the Maritimes tonight.
At mid afternoon, a mid level closed low continued to meander over the mid and lower Mississippi Valley with tropical depression Helene over southeast Kentucky. A mid and upper level ridge over the southwest CONUS will continue to shift to the west slightly as the closed low meanders over the lower Ohio and mid Mississippi Valleys.
250 PM MDT Fri Sep 27 2024 - Dry weather, much warmer than average temperatures, and elevated to potential critical fire weather conditions this weekend. Current surface analysis shows dissipating cold front south and east of the area, with weak high pressure northeast of the region. A weak Pacific cold front is located over the Pacific NW. Upper level analysis shows strong ridge of high pressure over the southwest US, starting to expand north again across the Rockies. Hot weather returns this weekend as southwest US ridge continues to build back north and east across the region.
Under mostly sunny skies, temperatures have warmed into the lower to middle 80s. The latest surface analysis shows Helene over E KY, and the system continues to weaken as it becomes more absorbed in a larger low pressure system over the TN Valley. This low pressure area is quite pronounced on the latest WV imagery, with moisture wrapping around the northern and western side of the circulation as dry air advects around the southern and southeastern flanks. 24 (This evening through Saturday) A large low pressure system (a composite of an existing low over the central US and the embedded remnants of Helene) will meander over the TN/KY region through the weekend.
Elsewhere, the low level wind field has switched to a southeasterly direction across the Appalachians and subsequently the higher terrain has finally ramped up in winds. Shower activity probably begins to pick back up tomorrow afternoon and evening as an upper low to our west begins to drift east. Discussion: The upper low that is in the process of absorbing the remnants of Helene is centered over the western TN/KY border this afternoon.
Forecasting the anomalous heat is a bit more confidence boosting however as this ridge aloft will not be budging any time soon. Luckily the nights will be cool though the freezing mark will looks limited to the higher terrain and valleys. This of course trends the forecast even drier and warmer as the strong Pacific High cell basically replaces the 4 Corners one we have in place now.
Still no important weather to note for the upcoming week as we remain under the influence of upper-level ridging.
Northeast winds 20 to 35 mph with the highest wind gusts to 50 mph south of US 30.
Due to the low amount of additional rainfall expected, the flood watch that was effect until 1 AM has been canceled.
1157 AM EDT Fri Sep 27 2024 Low pressure will exit across the Maritimes today.
A few spots that tend to keep wind speeds up a little may stay in the lower 60s.
/NEW/ /This afternoon through Saturday/ Much of the Lone Star state will remain on the western edge of a deep area of low pressure centered across Western Kentucky and Tennessee. There will be some passing high clouds as moisture from Helene wraps around the low and spreads southward, this will be most noticeable across the northeast zones on Saturday.
High pressure aloft will be the dominant weather feature over the coming week delivering mainly clear skies, light winds, above normal temperatures and dry conditions. High pressure will remain centered over Arizona.