Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
This should allow temperatures to climb into the low 90s today for areas to the west of I-55, upper 80s elsewhere. Temperatures will be near record high over the delta region and continue warmer than normal elsewhere this afternoon but, a dry cold front will drop into our CWA tonight and bring cooler temperatures to the northern half of our CWA by morning. This will result in an increase in low level moisture over our region ahead of the approaching cold front. Temperatures are expected to top out in the lower 90s generally along and northwest of the Natchez Trace. The northwest flow aloft today will continue tonight and help support the cold front entering our northwest most zones around midnight and making it to the Interstate 20 corridor by sunrise.
Temperatures are currently in the 70s across the area with slightly higher dewpoints keeping temps a bit warmer than previous nights. A weak frontal boundary associated with a trough well to our northeast will move near the region to our north this afternoon. The weak boundary will likely push into the area somewhat on Monday which should put high temps back into the lower to middle 90s for most locations.
642 AM EDT Sun Oct 13 2024 Warm weather expected until a cold front arrives later Monday.
531 AM CDT Sun Oct 13 2024 - Today will be the last day of unseasonably warm temperatures as a cold front ushers in a dry cooler airmass tonight.
Overnight lows will remain in the low to the mid 70s.
725 AM EDT Sun Oct 13 2024 High pressure residing over the region will result in mostly clear skies along with a warming trend through Monday. The passage of a cold front on Monday will usher in the coldest air mass of the season thus far with below normal temperatures returning. Key Messages: - Clear and calm Troughing continues to dig into the eastern US today as a weak mid-level vort max slides through the southern Appalachians. Ahead of the front and low pressure driven by the digging trough, surface flow will strengthen a bit today, with associated warm advection and increasing dew points into the mid-upper 50's. Key Message(s): - Strong dry cold front will move through the area Monday morning or early afternoon.
The arrival of the upper trough with low level CAA yields lake-induced instability with HRRR/Nam3km Bufkit soundings showing LI CAPE of over 1000 J/kg. After dark, a region of steadier rain will likely set up north of I- 96, across central Lower MI, where the low's pivot point will be located. - Most Areas Drying Out Monday; Lakeshore Showers Possible As the low moves east of our region Monday, 850mb temps go subzero so there will plenty of instability over the lake.
The cold front will quickly clear the area just after midnight with cooler air pouring in. Monday morning will feel a little cooler with 10 mph north winds and temperatures in the upper 40s to lower 50s.
1018 AM EDT Sun Oct 13 2024 Warm weather expected until a cold front arrives later Monday.
401 AM CDT Sun Oct 13 2024 -Cooler weather has arrived for today.
1147 AM CDT Sun Oct 13 2024 Updated at 1146 AM CDT Sun Oct 13 2024 - Cold front moves through today.
As the low pressure slowly makes its way southeast across northern Wisconsin, cloud cover is starting to thin and showers are becoming more isolated in nature, especially for northeast Minnesota. Tonight, temperatures near to below freezing will lead to the possibility to more widespread snow showers throughout the Minnesota Arrowhead and inland portions of northwest Wisconsin.
1154 AM CDT Sun Oct 13 2024 (Today through Monday) The main high pressure has been elongated and allowed a weak trough to develop in the Mid-Atlantic states. The main center of the high is now along the Gulf Coast.
332 PM EDT Sun Oct 13 2024 Warm weather expected until a cold front arrives later Monday.
1037 AM MDT Sun Oct 13 2024 Updated Aviation Discussion Satellite imagery this morning shows clear skies over most of N-Central and SW MT with an upper level ridge axis centered across the Northern Rockies, sandwiched in between a weak upper low over the Northern Great Basin and broader upper-troughing across central and eastern Canada.
Ahead of the cold front remains a slight chance for thunderstorm development across the Cumberland Plateau this evening. Tonight, the associated cold front will quickly usher in a colder and drier air mass.
A dry cold front will move out the Mid-South overnight. Much cooler air will be in place over the region on Monday with temperatures some 15 to 20 degrees lower than this afternoon.
The low Monday morning will range from the upper 50s for areas east of the Chattahoochee/Apalachicola river basin, to the low 60s for areas to our west.
(Rest of today through Monday) The axis of a SW-NE oriented trough was analyzed over the Atlantic waters between the east coast and the Bahamas, and extending southwestward into the Florida Straits this afternoon. This feature is progged to organize/tighten into a (weak) low tonight, and then shift eastward into the Atlantic on Monday as troughing moves into the eastern US. The best low-lvl convergence associated with this trough axis has largely shifted offshore, so think the heavy rain threat has mostly ended for the area. Low-lvl winds will shift more northerly on Monday as the low shifts eastward and drier air will filter in from the north.
(Now through Monday Night) A large upper-level trough is beginning to dig into the Great Lakes region. Throughout the period, this trough will evolve into a massive upper low that will become centered over southeast Canada. At the surface, a ridge of high pressure that extends from the western Atlantic into the northern Gulf has allowed for a light southwesterly flow to develop across the area. For Monday, a cold front will begin to approach the area from the north. Lows in our northernmost zones will dip into the low 50s while locations along the immediate coast will only drop into the mid to upper 60s.
WV imagery indicates a northwesterly flow aloft prevailing across the Western High Plains downstream of weak ridging locked in across the Intermountain West. Near the surface, high pressure is drifting southeast through the Northern Plains. The drier trend is forecast to persist through mid-week as ridging aloft finally shifts east out of the Colorado Rockies into the Western High Plains. With a slow to erode cooler air mass, look for afternoon highs back up into the 70s(F) to near 80F Monday.
332 PM EDT Sun Oct 13 2024 - Showers and Storms Tonight - Mainly Dry but Cold Monday, Monday Night - Midweek Frosts, Then A Warmup - Showers and Storms Tonight Active weather expected this evening as the upper low and cold front now over WI/Lk MI comes through. The other thing to watch will be the possibility of locally heavy rainfall north of I-96 related to the pivot point of the upper low and best mid level deformation. - Mainly dry but cold Monday, Monday Night Once the upper low departs late tonight/early Monday we transition to mainly a pure lake effect event although we miss out on most of that. Monday and Monday night is looking predominately dry (yet cool) in our area since the low level flow will be out of the north- northeast.
Much cooler Monday. As an upper trough continues to dig into Ohio valley temperatures aloft are expected to cool some allowing for the potential of showers and storms this evening. HREF shows CAPEs of 500 to 1000 with the highest across the northern Plateau with values of 1250. For the remainder of the night, drier and cooler air will advect into the region with clouds clearing (slower across the orographic areas of the far east Tennessee Mountains). For Monday, cooler and dry conditions are expected.
1147 AM CDT Sun Oct 13 2024 (Rest of Today) We remain under the influence of high pressure that's centered along the Gulf Coast. A cold front currently in the Mid MS Valley will arrive tonight but has already increased the pressure gradient here in the TN Valley. Otherwise, no major changes to today's forecast, but be ready for the cooler air behind this front.
217 PM EDT Sun Oct 13 2024 High pressure residing over the region will result in mostly clear skies along with a warming trend through Monday.
* The higher terrain of the Alleghenies could see snow showers and a whitening of the ground. In the meantime, a surface wave and trailing cold front are approaching western PA. Little to no convective activity has been noted along or ahead of the cold front thus far, with fairly dry boundary layer conditions and limited buoyancy. An isolated gusty shower or thunderstorm can't be completely ruled out through this evening, as the aforementioned cold front passes through. Lows by daybreak will range from the upper 30s over parts of northwestern PA, to the mid 50s in the Lower Susquehanna Valley. On the large-scale, a deep upper low will park itself over Ontario and Quebec, with a chilly, cyclonic flow pattern in place across the Commonwealth.
149 PM CDT Sun Oct 13 2024 - A cold front's passage will offer occasional wind gusts between 15-25 mph through this evening. - The front also brings much cooler and drier air for the first half of the new work week. A sharp cold front's passage will bring strong cold air advection and a marked cool down for early this week. The broad long wave trof responsible will continue rounding its trof and drawing down a considerably colder and drier air mass in the process.
340 PM CDT Sun Oct 13 2024 - Widespread below freezing temperatures expected tonight into Monday morning.
1206 PM CDT Sun Oct 13 2024 Skies are sunny across the Mid-South this morning with temperatures in the low to mid 70s. Dry cold front currently across Ohio Valley through north central Arkansas and into southern Oklahoma. The front will clear the Mid-South late tonight with a much cooler week in store starting Monday. By tomorrow, much cooler weather returns with high temperatures generally in the 60s through much of this week.
(Tonight through Monday night) Ridging remains in control over the region with dry and warm conditions persisting through the short-term. Highs will be warmer and mostly in the 90s tomorrow. Overnight lows will range from the low to mid 60s both tonight and Monday night, although Monday night will be slightly cooler.
The primary concern continues to be for elevated fire danger tomorrow with the passage of a dry cold front ushering in very dry air in its wake.
1208 PM CDT Sun Oct 13 2024 (Today through Monday) A 500 mb ridge over the Desert Southwest into the Big Bend of Texas will continue to build over the region through the period. At the surface, high pressure across the Gulf of Mexico will remain in control through Monday. Highs today and Monday are expected to be slightly above normal with temperatures generally in the low to mid 90s.
- Cooler, below normal temperatures (50s) for highs the next few days.
(This evening through Monday) Today's cold front has had a little better surge than previously expected. The slightly cooler air mass in addition to light, albeit upslope, flow will promote good radiational cooling, although increasing mid and/or upper level cloud cover could limit that somewhat. Surface ridging begins to shift to the east of the forecast area on Monday with winds veering all the way to just west of south near the New Mexico line while off the Caprock winds will hang onto an upslope component much later into the day with cooler temperatures likely there closer to seasonal normals.
1211 PM CDT Sun Oct 13 2024 -Cooler weather has arrived for today.
High pressure continues to dominate our weather pattern leading to rain-free conditions and only some fair weather cumulus across central Florida.
(This evening through Monday Night) Ridging aloft over the Desert Southwest should should keep conditions benign across SE Texas over the next few days. A weak, diffuse cold front is progged to enter SE Texas on Monday, though it's still expected to stall out over our northern counties.
The second or moreso reinforcing cold front is just dropping into the Dakotas this morning.
1245 PM CDT Sun Oct 13 2024 (Tonight through Monday night) Water vapor imagery this morning reveals upper level ridging across the Plains as a trough digs across the Midwest.
A few rural locations in northern Lake and Volusia Counties could approach the lower 60s! Today-Tonight.
Today's efforts will be focused on the upcoming weather around mid week with conditions expected to turn cooler and wetter. High pressure is building into the area this morning, with low clouds for the coast into the Coquille and lower Umpqua valleys, and also the Klamath River Valley in western Siskiyou County.
(Today through Monday Night) An upper ridge continues centered over the southwest U. An upper low will develop in the Great Lakes area Sunday. A cold front in southern Missouri will move into north Arkansas this morning and through the rest of Arkansas during the day today. It will bring cooler and drier air however. A noticeable temperature change is expected as Canadian high pressure builds into the state tonight and Monday. Lows tonight will be in the mid 40s to around 60 degrees and Monday night are expected in the low 40s to low 50s.
216 PM EDT Sun Oct 13 2024 Warm weather expected until a cold front arrives later Monday.
227 PM CDT Sun Oct 13 2024 - Strong northwest winds behind a cold front this afternoon will ease up a bit this evening, but remain gusty overnight (25 to 30 mph).
(Through Tonight) The wind shift associated with the leading edge of a frontal boundary has just about cleared the area this afternoon, though the cooler air is lagging a bit behind the wind change. Slightly cooler conditions are noted north of I-40 where temperatures are holding in the low to mid 80s. High pressure will build in tonight, with overnight lows expected to be much cooler than previous nights. Overnight lows are forecast to range from the lower 40s across the north to the upper 50s along the Red River.
A weak cold front associated with a broad trough will sweep through the forecast area overnight into Monday. Breezy northwest winds will begin ushering in a much cooler and drier airmass that will stick around for much of the work week.
Under sunny to party sunny skies, 2 PM temperatures have risen into the low/mid 80s, with SW winds of 5-15 mph, a few gusts to 20 mph. The changes will result as a cold front sweeps in a NNW-SSE manner across the Valley tonight. Any showers that develop will quickly fade and/or move well south of the area as drier and cooler air begins filtering in from the north.
- A cold front will bring cooler temperatures later this week. As of this afternoon, the cold front is moving through the northern Big Country. This along with the thermal ridge and clear, sunny skies have led to very above normal temperatures this afternoon. The high temperatures records for Abilene and San Angelo today are 97 and 102 respectively. The Big Country will see more of an impact from this front, with highs dropping into the low to mid 80s for tomorrow. Areas south of the Big Country will be a bit warmer, with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s.
However, rural areas of Lake and Volusia Counties will likely dip into the lower 60s.
A few clouds along the ID/NV border this morning accompanying a slow moving upper low. Any shower threat from this system will stay south of the border as the low drops southward today.
1011 AM CDT Sun Oct 13 2024 Skies are sunny across the Mid-South this morning with temperatures in the low to mid 70s. Dry cold front currently across Ohio Valley through north central Arkansas and into southern Oklahoma. The front will clear the Mid-South late tonight with a much cooler week in store starting Monday. By tomorrow, much cooler weather returns with high temperatures generally in the 60s through much of this week.
Temperatures will remain slightly above normal with highs in the low to mid 90s and overnight lows in the in the mid to upper 60s.
The next system then brings cooler temperatures and generally light precipitation chances by midweek, with breezy to gusty northerly winds and elevated fire weather concerns following through the end of the week. Upper level ridging building over the area and sunny skies will bring warmer temperatures today, especially over the northern & central Sacramento Valley and adjacent foothills and mountains, where there was cloud cover yesterday. Highs this afternoon are expected be a little above normal, reaching the low to mid 80s for the Delta, Valley, and foothills, with 70s to 80 for the foothills, 60s to 70s for the mountains.
710 PM EDT Sun Oct 13 2024 * Breezy and turning much cooler tonight.
621 PM CDT Sun Oct 13 2024 (This evening through Monday Night) Ridging aloft over the Desert Southwest should should keep conditions benign across SE Texas over the next few days. A weak, diffuse cold front is progged to enter SE Texas on Monday, though it's still expected to stall out over our northern counties.
* The higher terrain of the Alleghenies could see snow showers and a whitening of the ground. However, have increased POPs based on radar trends and the latest HRRR, which should perform well in the region of strong large scale forcing ahead of an upstream trough. Strong low-level cold advection behind the front should push temps steadily downward overnight, with daybreak readings ranging from the upper 30s over the NW Mtns, to the mid 50s over the Lower Susq Valley. On the large-scale, a deep upper low will park itself over Southern Quebec early this week with a chilly, cyclonic flow pattern in place across the Commonwealth.
751 PM EDT Sun Oct 13 2024 - Showers and Storms Tonight - Mainly Dry but Cold Monday, Monday Night - Midweek Frosts, Then A Warmup - Showers and Storms Tonight Active weather expected this evening as the upper low and cold front now over WI/Lk MI comes through. The other thing to watch will be the possibility of locally heavy rainfall north of I-96 related to the pivot point of the upper low and best mid level deformation. - Mainly dry but cold Monday, Monday Night Once the upper low departs late tonight/early Monday we transition to mainly a pure lake effect event although we miss out on most of that. Monday and Monday night is looking predominately dry (yet cool) in our area since the low level flow will be out of the north- northeast.
624 PM CDT Sun Oct 13 2024 - Strong northwest winds behind a cold front this afternoon will ease up a bit this evening, but remain gusty overnight (25 to 30 mph).
806 PM EDT Sun Oct 13 2024 Low pressure tracking across the Northeast will bring rain and cool temperatures to the region tonight.
Fog and stratus are expected to return tonight while high pressure helps clear things out for the rest of the day. Ridging continues with light winds and stratus lingering near the coast. A shallow inversion with warmer air aloft will encourage the return of low ceilings and overcast skies, especially in low lying areas tonight with dew points and temperatures in close proximity. In the next 48+ hours, an upper level low will barrel towards the PACNW, with Oregon and Washington receiving most of the effects. The higher probabilities are toward the north and west of these counties.
A cold front is stretching southwest from this low and is set up over Middle TN roughly from Lawrence County northeast to Fentress County. Once the front is through we will see dry conditions with clearing skies and much cooler air will be building in. Ahead of the cold front remains a slight chance for thunderstorm development across the Cumberland Plateau this evening. Tonight, the associated cold front will quickly usher in a colder and drier air mass.
1030 PM EDT Sun Oct 13 2024 Low pressure tracking across the Northeast will bring rain and cool temperatures to the region overnight.
638 PM CDT Sun Oct 13 2024 - A cold front's passage will offer occasional wind gusts between 15-25 mph through this evening. - The front also brings much cooler and drier air for the first half of the new work week. A sharp cold front's passage will bring strong cold air advection and a marked cool down for early this week. The broad long wave trof responsible will continue rounding its trof and drawing down a considerably colder and drier air mass in the process.
634 PM CDT Sun Oct 13 2024 A dry cold front will move out the Mid-South overnight. Much cooler air will be in place over the region on Monday with temperatures some 15 to 20 degrees lower than this afternoon.
Dry conditions above normal temperatures will continue through mid-week as a weak upper low slides across the area.
602 PM CDT Sun Oct 13 2024 - A cold front will bring cooler temperatures later this week. As of this afternoon, the cold front is moving through the northern Big Country. This along with the thermal ridge and clear, sunny skies have led to very above normal temperatures this afternoon. The high temperatures records for Abilene and San Angelo today are 97 and 102 respectively. The Big Country will see more of an impact from this front, with highs dropping into the low to mid 80s for tomorrow. Areas south of the Big Country will be a bit warmer, with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s.
Weak high pressure in the western North Atlantic has continued to trek eastward, resulting in a decrease in winds. Dew points have risen a few degrees since the weak warm front moved northward across the Keys yesterday and are now in the mid to upper 70s. Breezes have slackened to light to gentle out of the north to northeast as high pressure moved further offshore over the western Atlantic, and a weak low pressure trough over the Keys northern coastal waters continues to diminish.
630 PM CDT Sun Oct 13 2024 (Tonight through Monday night) Ridging remains in control over the region with dry and warm conditions persisting through the short-term. Highs will be warmer and mostly in the 90s tomorrow. Overnight lows will range from the low to mid 60s both tonight and Monday night, although Monday night will be slightly cooler.
902 PM CDT Sun Oct 13 2024 - Strong northwest winds behind a cold front this afternoon will ease up a bit this evening, but remain gusty overnight (25 to 30 mph).
723 PM EDT Sun Oct 13 2024 Warm weather expected until a cold front arrives later Monday.
907 PM EDT Sun Oct 13 2024 Warm weather expected until a cold front arrives later Monday.
The ridging aloft responsible for the 2 week plus heat event is finally shifting southward into Mexico allowing heights to gradually lower.
Meanwhile, drier air, clearing skies, and lighter winds will favor a cooler night than last night as overnight lows generally fall to the 60s and low 70s. High pressure continues to dominate our weather pattern leading to rain-free conditions and only some fair weather cumulus across central Florida.
/Issued 229 PM PDT Sun Oct 13 2024/ High pressure over the region today is bringing clear skies to the area.
1050 PM EDT Sun Oct 13 2024 Cooler and unsettled weather is then expected through midweek under a trough of low pressure. KEY MESSAGES: - Precipitation chances will increase from the north after 4am with a sagging trough over Michigan/Lake Erie. After a lull in the precipitation after FROPA, additional scattered showers are expected to develop as this trough approaches.
826 PM EDT Sun Oct 13 2024 High pressure residing over the region will result in mostly clear skies along with a warming trend through Monday.
(Rest of tonight) The main story tonight will be a cold front that is currently tracking southeast through Tennessee, producing a line of showers and thunderstorms to our northeast. Have kept PoPs on the lower side across far NE AL and southern middle TN due to the more limited convective environment, and have not really seen any trends in radar data to warrant raising PoPs or expanding further west. Winds will shift to the northwest behind the front, and strong cold air advection will occur as high pressure becomes the dominating factor.