Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
548 PM CDT Fri May 2 2025 - Frost advisory northwest zones Saturday morning, for sunrise temperatures in the lower 30s.
645 PM EDT Fri May 2 2025 Showers and thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening ahead of a weak cold front. During this timeframe, dew points remain in the lower 60s, winds stay out of the south, and shower chances could be accompanied by some low end thunder chances as slim instability profiles may develop. At some point during the afternoon and evening, the system moves into the Ohio Valley and a cold front slowly progresses through the area. Temperatures drop into the 50s after FROPA and the chance for thunder comes to an end although shower chances persist under the low.
632 PM CDT Fri May 2 2025 Updated at 621 PM CDT Fri May 2 2025 - Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will continue tonight through Saturday morning, as a cold front moves through.
831 PM EDT Fri May 2 2025 Showers and thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening ahead of a weak cold front. During this timeframe, dew points remain in the lower 60s, winds stay out of the south, and shower chances could be accompanied by some low end thunder chances as slim instability profiles may develop. At some point during the afternoon and evening, the system moves into the Ohio Valley and a cold front slowly progresses through the area. Temperatures drop into the 50s after FROPA and the chance for thunder comes to an end although shower chances persist under the low.
A trough will move over western Washington today through Saturday, bringing in a round of showers.
Local radars were still showing a band of thunderstorms from Meridian to Monticello that were along and ahead of a prefrontal trough sagging through of CWA. Although the storm threat will end by 1AM models suggest redevelop of rain by morning along and ahead of a cold front that was still to our northwest. This cold front will move across our CWA Saturday and bring an end to the rain.
1217 AM CDT Sat May 3 2025 - Frost advisory northwest zones Saturday morning, for sunrise temperatures in the lower 30s.
Tonight, an upper level low gets cut off over the Ohio River Valley with southeasterly flow developing over NY and PA.
This should give the Tennessee Valley a window to destabilize, with at least modest SBCAPE values between 500-1000 J/kg and bulk shear values of 25-35 kts along and ahead of a surface cold front that will finally push across the region from the late morning through the afternoon.
105 AM CDT Sat May 3 2025 Local radars were still showing a band of thunderstorms from Meridian to Monticello that were along and ahead of a prefrontal trough sagging through of CWA. Although the storm threat will end by 1AM models suggest redevelop of rain by morning along and ahead of a cold front that was still to our northwest. This cold front will move across our CWA Saturday and bring an end to the rain.
Decaying weak cold front moves north over the region with light rain showers Saturday morning, with temperatures cooling back into the 60s on Saturday.
1120 PM MDT Fri May 2 2025 - Dry and warmer through Saturday.
310 AM CDT Sat May 3 2025 - Patchy areas of frost this morning as temperatures drop into the lower to mid 30s.
This storm mode should continue over the next several hours as a cold frontal boundary to our north slowly works its way into SE TX. Overnight lows will drop into the 60s as north winds behind the front bring in some slightly cooler and drier air. A pleasant day is in store tomorrow with slightly cooler and drier air making its way into SE TX behind the departing front.
Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop this morning along and in advance of the cold front. A wind shift to the northwest will take place late this afternoon behind the cold front.
Upper level trough responsible for pushing boundary and initiating storms continues to trek across region, seen clearly on water vapor imagery. As upper level trough continues to slide through tonight, expectation remains for it to become cutoff just east of here, over the western Ohio River Valley. Concurrently, western CONUS trough too expected to become cutoff over the SW US later today, setting up a compact Omega Block pattern with ridging up into the Canadian Plains. Residing on the eastern edge of the ridging, but within the cooler influence of the cutoff upper low, conditions to remain largely quiet and cool across the area.
1013 PM CDT Fri May 2 2025 - Patchy areas of frost will be possible tonight as temperatures dropping into the low to mid 30s with the greatest risk along and east of I-29. CURRENTS & TONIGHT: A mild and breezy day continues! Taking a look across the area, most areas are now up to the low to upper 50s as of 1 pm with a scattered diurnal "Cu" field developing mostly along the Missouri River Valley and across central SD. With this in mind, make sure to cover any sensitive vegetation and/or bring in any potted plants! REST OF THE WEEKEND: Looking into the rest of the weekend, more warm and quiet conditions are in stored as an omega blocking pattern sets up aloft by Saturday.
307 AM CDT Sat May 3 2025 - Frost advisory until 8am this morning west of highway 83 and north of a Johnson City to Sublette line, for sunrise temperatures in the lower 30s.
Cooler temperatures expected due to persistent cloud cover and rain chances. Discussion: We are finally nearing the end of this recent stretch of impactful weather as an upper-level trough is digging deep into the Mississippi and western Tennessee river valleys this morning. The main focus will be an additional line of showers and thunderstorms developing with an eastward propagating cold front this afternoon. Damaging wind gusts up to 60mph will be the primary concern with a lower threat for large hail, though sub-severe hail could be relatively common with freezing levels dropping to ~9kft per NAMbufr soundings.
120 AM EDT Sat May 3 2025 Showers and thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening ahead of a weak cold front. During this timeframe, dew points remain in the lower 60s, winds stay out of the south, and shower chances could be accompanied by some low end thunder chances as slim instability profiles may develop. At some point during the afternoon and evening, the system moves into the Ohio Valley and a cold front slowly progresses through the area. Temperatures drop into the 50s after FROPA and the chance for thunder comes to an end although shower chances persist under the low.
with a cut-off low forming over the midwest which will anchor the eastern side of the blocking pattern.
Meanwhile, a broad area of high pressure has moved slightly further east across the Atlantic overnight. Said boundary is associated with a quasi cut- off low that is moving through the Lower Ohio Valley. For now will keep rain chances slightly below guidance given the higher than usual uncertainty. The only influence it will have will be to weaken the ridge axis across our area.
1132 PM CDT Fri May 2 2025 Updated at 1124 PM CDT Fri May 2 2025 - Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will continue tonight through Saturday morning, as a cold front moves through.
408 AM CDT Sat May 3 2025 Today through tonight: Convective rainfall has ended for now, but a cold front will push across the area today and bring one more round of storms to mainly eastern portions of the forecast area. As lingering moisture heats up this morning ahead of the approaching cold front, there will be just enough lift, instability, and deep layer shear for a few strong to marginally severe storms. Expect quiet weather tonight as drier and cooler air moves into the forecast area.
A cooldown and stronger low pressure system will bring a chance of more widespread precipitation and locally gusty winds for the weekend. The probability of highs above 85 degrees for these areas are about 50 to 90 percent, with lesser chances towards Los Banos and Merced as some ocean-cooled air could begin to flow into these portions with the upper-level trough just offshore. The upper-level trough will push inland over Central California by Saturday morning, and the next round of precipitation begins. A much cooler day is on tap with highs mainly in the 70's in the lower elevations. Snow levels appear to be mainly above 6,000 feet but rise to about 7,000-8,000 feet at times, and about 2-3 inches of snow are possible in the highest elevations each day on Saturday and Sunday.
A cold front now extends from near Grenada to Vicksburg to Natchez and is making steady eastward progress across the area this morning. /DL/ Today through tonight: Convective rainfall has ended for now, but a cold front will push across the area today and bring one more round of storms to mainly eastern portions of the forecast area. As lingering moisture heats up this morning ahead of the approaching cold front, there will be just enough lift, instability, and deep layer shear for a few strong to marginally severe storms. Expect quiet weather tonight as drier and cooler air moves into the forecast area.
Upper level clouds are filtering in from the north on the periphery of the ridge axis. Water vapor satellite this evening indicates upper ridging beginning to push into the region. Very dry air is filtering in with this ridge, so fog is unlikely to develop in the overnight periods, but minimum temperatures may fall around freezing at times. Signals are lacking in terms of anything meaningful across the northern plains as ridging will be splitting between two cutoff lows.
645 AM CDT Sat May 3 2025 (Saturday through Sunday Night) Our much anticipated cold front has cleared roughly the NW half of the region as of 3 AM with a rapid erosion of cloud cover in wake of the front. This dry air mass will contribute to unseasonably cool overnight temperatures as high pressure at the sfc builds across the region.
Aloft we will see an omega blocking pattern form over CONUS with upper level lows over the desert southwest and the Ohio River Valley. This leaves our region under a ridge aloft promoting temperatures to increase above normal. However, Lake Superior's surface temperatures are still in the upper 30s which will lead to areas near Lake Superior remaining 10-20F cooler than areas further away.
An upper level closed low to the NNW will rotate east north of AR by this afternoon.
The slower departure will cause cooler temperatures for today rising to the mid to low 60s away from the lake and upper 40s to low 50s along the lake. The quiet and dry conditions will continue tonight and Sunday due to the high pressure residing overhead. But, east-northeast flow off of Lake MI, due to the proximity of a closed low over the Ohio River Valley, will result in slightly cooler temperatures in east-central and far northeast WI with highs ranging from the low to mid 60s. Even cooler temperatures are anticipated right along the lakeshore in the mid 50s.
Guidance continues to advertise the Mississippi River system organizing into the closed low, with a bit further south push from yesterday (now over the Tennessee River Valley). A cold front crosses the forecast area beginning Saturday afternoon and south of the forecast area after 09z Saturday night, eventually stalling over the central Gulf Sunday. A drier and somewhat cooler airmass moves over the forecast area behind the front for Sunday/Sunday night. Low temperatures in the low 50s north of Highway 84 to around 60 along the coast are expected tonight with a drop of a couple of degrees for Sunday night.
- The front will clear out tomorrow morning, leaving cooler temperatures in it's wake. A rather messy pattern has set up across the southeast out ahead of a cold front that is expected to bring the risk of additional severe weather today to most of the CWA. The models continue to push the potential for an MCS as the main cold front approaches the area.
As for the temperatures, the highs for today and tomorrow are expected to be in the low 80s, while the low temperatures for tonight are expected to be in the range of the upper 60s to lower 70s.
UPDATE Upper level clouds are filtering in from the north on the periphery of the ridge axis. Water vapor satellite this evening indicates upper ridging beginning to push into the region. Very dry air is filtering in with this ridge, so fog is unlikely to develop in the overnight periods, but minimum temperatures may fall around freezing at times. Signals are lacking in terms of anything meaningful across the northern plains as ridging will be splitting between two cutoff lows.
Our KBYX radar has also showed some very isolated shower activity to the south of the Lower Keys, but automated observations from the Key West International Airport suggest that only a few sprinkles have made it to the surface. Current temperatures along the Keys are in the lower 80s with dew points in the lower 70s.
507 AM CDT Sat May 3 2025 - Frost advisory until 8am this morning west of highway 83 and north of a Johnson City to Sublette line, for sunrise temperatures in the lower 30s.
(Today through Sunday night) The combined Panhandles are currently under the base of a positively tilted upper level trough that is swinging into the Mississippi River Valley. Upstream is a narrow and steep ridge over the Intermountain West. This ridge has another robust trough following in close by. The aforementioned ridge will build into the area today and tomorrow with near normal highs in the mid to upper 70s. For today and tomorrow, until the next trough moves into the area, the combined Panhandles will have fairly benign weather. That is expected to change tomorrow when the surface pressure gradient steepens ahead of the approaching upper level low which is progged to close off south of the southern tip of NV by Sunday afternoon.
Today: Clouds Slowly Clearing, Isolated Showers South of I-90 The elongating upper level trough responsible for our last few days of cloudier and wetter weather is meandering to the southeast early this morning. This trough is progged to separate from the northern stream during the day, becoming a true cutoff low by tonight centered over the lower Ohio River Valley. Further southeast in the residual cyclonic flow, the low-level moisture will gradually mix out from northwest to southeast throughout the day.
658 AM CDT Sat May 3 2025 Today through tonight: Convective rainfall has ended for now, but a cold front will push across the area today and bring one more round of storms to mainly eastern portions of the forecast area. As lingering moisture heats up this morning ahead of the approaching cold front, there will be just enough lift, instability, and deep layer shear for a few strong to marginally severe storms. Expect quiet weather tonight as drier and cooler air moves into the forecast area.
- Patchy areas of frost this morning as temperatures drop into the lower to mid 30s.
618 AM CDT Sat May 3 2025 (Today through Sunday) Key Messages: - Below normal temperatures today and Sunday As the cold front continues pushing southward this morning, rain chances will continue to decrease with rain chances dropping to under 15% after noon. Temperaturewise, below normal temperatures are expected with daytime highs topping out in the lower 80s which is about 5 degrees below normal for this time of the year. However, despite the daytime highs being cooler than normal, overnight lows will remain near normal for the southern half of the CWA while the northern half trends 5 to 10 degrees below normal dropping into the mid to upper 50s.
Water vapor imagery reveals a stout upper level trough across the Plains. As this feature lifts towards the Midwest during the day, an associated cold front will head our way. However, 0-6km will increase to around 40-50 knots as the upper trough swings through. Much drier conditions are in store on Sunday as drier air filters into the region in the wake of the cold front. Lastly, to touch on temps, a couple cooler days are in store over the weekend. Increased cloud cover today will keep highs generally in the low to mid 70s. The cold front will be most noticeable tonight when lows drop into the mid 40s to mid 50s.
Additionally, a surface cold front will traverse the region today as well, passing to our southeast by this evening. With FROPA, lows are expected to be much cooler as well, diving into the upper 40s later tonight.
(Rest of today through Sunday) More showers and thunderstorms today across middle Tennessee, as a cold front pushes into the area from the west. After the isolated threat today, some scattered showers will be possible tomorrow as well with the upper low centered over Kentucky, but not expecting any severe weather at this moment. (Sunday Night through next Saturday) As the upper level omega block breaks down early - mid week this week, weak ridging will increase our temperatures back to around normal values.
239 PM EDT Sat May 3 2025 * Upper level low will result in continued rain chances through the weekend.
213 PM CDT Sat May 3 2025 (This evening through Sunday Night) Mid/upper trough over the Mississippi River Valley will slowly crawl eastward, becoming more of a cut-off low over the Midwest. Meanwhile, another trough digs southward over W CONUS. Between the troughs lies a ridge over central CONUS.
Large upper ridging is readily viewable on water vapor imagery this afternoon over the Great Plains into central Canada. This is flanked by a couple of cut off upper lows, in an omega block-type pattern. Dry air mass within the upper ridge is being reinforced by subsidence under the upper ridge, and will continue to promote warm and dry conditions through at least Sunday.
Latest high resolution model output remains consistent in showing wind gust potential of up to 50 mph, mostly across Malheur and Owyhee counties, and the lower Snake Plain this evening. Showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue across mainly the higher terrain and S-Central valley of ID.
- The front will clear out tomorrow morning, leaving cooler temperatures in it's wake. A drier cooler airmass wraps around the backside of the main low pressure center over KY Sun bringing mostly clear skies to north and Central GA.
Light southerly return flow continues across the area through the night on the backside of the high. Skies will remain clear tonight, but the southerly low-level flow will offset the radiational cooling effect somewhat, and no frost or near freezing temperatures are expected. The leeward trough strengthens on Sunday ahead of an upper level trough digging along the west coast.
237 PM CDT Sat May 3 2025 A "Marginal" risk for isolated severe storms will continue over the next hour this afternoon mainly for areas along and east of the I-59 corridor as the cold front pushes across the area. Weather conditions will become quiet this evening through the overnight period as global guidance shows the low pressure system hovering over the Mid Tennessee Valley Region to push east- northeastward towards the Upper East Coast. This will allow for the associated cold front to continue to track east across Alabama into Georgia.
(Tonight through Sunday night) Short range CAMs show convection scaling back later today as a cold front pushes farther offshore.
(Today through Sunday) Key Messages: - Below normal temperatures today and Sunday As the cold front continues pushing southward this morning, rain chances will continue to decrease with rain chances dropping to under 15% after noon. Temperaturewise, below normal temperatures are expected with daytime highs topping out in the lower 80s which is about 5 degrees below normal for this time of the year. However, despite the daytime highs being cooler than normal, overnight lows will remain near normal for the southern half of the CWA while the northern half trends 5 to 10 degrees below normal dropping into the mid to upper 50s.
There is one notable change to the forecast - I opted to blend in slightly cooler NBM 25th for tonight's low temperatures. Looking ahead, the mid-level pattern remains "messy" across the CONUS as a pair of cut-off lows meander over the country. The theme will be "blocking" as an omega block forms over the central CONUS that'll persist through mid-week. We're fortunate (or unfortunate for those hoping for more precipitation) to be under the ridge aloft.
17/klaws (Through Sunday) Behind the line of storms and cold front, the upper low will swing south into the TN Valley. Currently this low is is in central Missouri and sliding southward. The upper low finally moves east of the area by Sunday night.
Moisture in the lower-levels will be a little higher out west along the Rio Grande overnight and this region will see more cloud cover vs. Out west along the Rio Grande, minimum temperatures will be a little warmer, with lower 60s expected.
A cooldown and stronger low pressure system will bring a chance of more widespread precipitation and locally gusty winds for the weekend. Unsettled conditions have already started as the associated upper low approaches Central California later today. Ensemble surface analysis is showing the cold front already over Central California and shifting through the area today.
In true Florida fashion, the exception is for a handful of isolated showers across portions of Hawk Channel and the Florida Straits as well as the waters just to the north of the Lower and Middle Keys. A deepening trough over the eastern and southeastern U. will erode the ridging that has persisted across our forecast area, but this high pressure will be able to return during the middle of the week as the trough lifts to the northeastern U. Enhanced low level moisture will help to keep dew points in the lower 70s.
Southwesterly flow aloft ahead of this upper low is present across the Southeastern U. Moisture will begin to increase overnight into early Sunday as southwesterly flow increases as the closed low slowly drifts eastward. The cold front will also move across the Panhandle. Low level shear is on the weaker side but there is a good deal of turning in the lowest levels. This later is the day threat would still be on the low side but a bit higher than the morning threat for strong to marginally severe storms.
1251 PM CDT Sat May 3 2025 - Frost advisory until 8am this morning west of highway 83 and north of a Johnson City to Sublette line, for sunrise temperatures in the lower 30s.
338 PM EDT Sat May 3 2025 A cold front will stall across the Downeast area into Sunday.
(This evening through Sunday Night) Mid/upper trough over the Mississippi River Valley will slowly crawl eastward, becoming more of a cut-off low over the Midwest. Meanwhile, another trough digs southward over W CONUS. Between the troughs lies a ridge over central CONUS.
1235 PM CDT Sat May 3 2025 A cold front now extends from near Grenada to Vicksburg to Natchez and is making steady eastward progress across the area this morning. /DL/ Today through tonight: Convective rainfall has ended for now, but a cold front will push across the area today and bring one more round of storms to mainly eastern portions of the forecast area. As lingering moisture heats up this morning ahead of the approaching cold front, there will be just enough lift, instability, and deep layer shear for a few strong to marginally severe storms. Expect quiet weather tonight as drier and cooler air moves into the forecast area.
- Showers, thunderstorms and high mountain snow develop on Sunday, as cooler temperatures slowly move southward into the CWA.
- Slightly breezier for Sunday but still expecting a pleasant day with minimal clouds and warmer temperatures in the low to mid 70s.
In fact, current temperatures are in the lower to mid 60s for most areas. With FROPA, temperatures are also expected to be much cooler tonight as well, with lows diving into the upper 40s.
For Sunday, the upper trough will be across the Ohio/Tennessee valleys with jet streaks rotating around the low. Besides the showers and storms, the upper trough will produce unseasonably cool temperatures with highs about 10 degrees below normal.