Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
(Today and tonight) The synoptic pattern continues to remain rather stagnant overall with rather expansive upper level ridging still centered over the Four Corners region and broad cyclonic flow aloft over most of the eastern CONUS. East-southeasterly surface flow early this morning will gradually veer more southerly by midday which combined with a modest increase in layer thicknesses will result in slightly warmer conditions today compared to yesterday as highs peak in the low to mid 90s. Convective development seems most probable close to the TX/NM state line in proximity to a modest low level theta-e ridge and more robust midlevel moisture, and will keep mentionable PoPs confined to the western South Plains and SW TX Panhandle this afternoon with largely dry conditions elsewhere during the day today.
(Today and tonight) The weak cold front/outflow boundary that caused the showers and thunderstorms yesterday for southern areas, has made it near or south of Interstate 10 in our area.
1226 AM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024 - 30 to 60 percent chance of precipitation Friday, with the highest chances across central South Dakota.
Temperatures are on track to drop into the lower 50s over east central Illinois, which would threaten a few record lows for Friday (see Climate section below). Geelhart Expansive high pressure centered near northeast IA this afternoon will continue to shift into northern IL for Friday. The air mass is also of cooler Canadian origin, and should produce highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s, and lows dipping into the 50s the next few days. Late in the weekend, the pattern will begin to shift as high pressure weakens over the Midwest and weak low pressure develops over the Plains, working in tandem with high pressure off the coast of the southeast U.
(Tonight through Saturday night) Mid-afternoon sfc analysis shows a nearly stationary frontal boundary just to our north while the Bermuda high pressure ridge continue to cover the nrn Gulf/forecast area. Water vapor imagery shows a trof axis extending from the Great Lakes swwd to the wrn Gulf region. The combination of the lingering trof axis, the meandering sfc boundary and persistent very deep moisture will maintain elevated rain chances (maybe not so high during the evening/early overnight hours) through the short term portion of the forecast period.
Highs Friday will be cooler than yesterday due to expected increased cloud cover, generally rising into the middle to upper 80s for all locations. Friday night temperatures once again dip to the lower to middle 70s inland and upper 70s nearer the coast.
Obs show dewpoints already in the low 60s with some locations in southern KY in the upper 50s. Current dew points in western KY are in the lower 60s.
High pressure was in control across the Upper Midwest this afternoon with temperatures in the 70s. Lows tonight will be warmer than last night with readings in the 50s. The high will shift to the east tomorrow with southwesterly return flow setting up across the region. This will help usher in warmer temperatures along with more moisture. An upper trough will work through the region during the afternoon and evening hours and may help kick off a few showers and thunderstorms, mainly across north-central Minnesota. A cold front will sag to the south out of Canada on Saturday and lead to more chances for showers and thunderstorms across much of the region.
KEY MESSAGES: - Mainly dry and less humid weather after the passage of a cold front. Valley fog is likely tonight with water temperatures warmer than air temperatures. Elsewhere on Saturday, high pressure will continue to dominate with temperatures just a hair above normal with just a few high clouds decreasing through the day.
341 AM EDT Fri Jul 19 2024 High pressure and fair weather through the weekend.
In the upper levels, there is broad ridging over western CONUS with west-northwesterly flow over the region. At the surface, there is a high just to our north that has been keeping high temperatures in the low 80s. The high is expected to slowly begin to drift to the east over the next few days. Saturday a mid-level trough develops to the north of the area. At the surface, a low develops over SD with its associated cold front. Our winds will shift to the south as our region enters the warm sector, however warmer air (upper 80s to low 90s) is expected to stay to the south keeping our high temperatures in the upper 70s to low 80s.
Early morning temperatures are on the cool side for mid July and in the low 50s to mid 60s across the area with light and variable winds thanks to the high pressure remaining overhead. Overall severe weather threat remains low with more limited instability and shear values, however, will have to continue to monitor the track of the low as it moves and sits over central Iowa as well as the amount of early day cloud cover as with clearing, could have the potential for some funnel clouds, as mentioned in the last several discussions. With an upper ridge over the western U. and a fairly stagnant trough over the eastern U.
Currently have upper ridging stretching from the Desert Southwest into the Great Basin with water vapor imagery showing an upper impulse tracking across the Northern Rockies. At the same time, weak upper troughing extends from the Southern Appalachians into the Lower Mississippi Valley. At the surface, high pressure extends from the Mid Mississippi Valley across the Ohio Valley/Southern Great Lakes region. So will keep the higher pops over western and northern portions of the forecast area. Will hold onto pops for Sat night through Sun as there is some model agreement in a few upper perturbations rotating around the backside of the upper low.
PoPs this afternoon are highest in Lincoln and eastern Mohave Counties, though 20-40% chances still exist in parts of Clark County and our northwestern areas, primarily on the high terrain. This weekend, when the high moves overhead, PoPs become more confined to Lincoln and Mohave Counties. On Saturday, the warning expands to include the remainder of our San Bernardino zones, the lower elevations of Clark County, southern Nye County, and Death Valley.
(Today through Saturday) The mid-level ridge across the Four Corners gradually edges west as the 500mb trough begins to settle into the central CONUS, sinking south into Texas.
Surface analysis depicts Atlantic high pressure extending westward across the Florida peninsula and into the Gulf of Mexico. Aloft, the subtropical ridge also extends westward from the Atlantic across Central/South Florida and the central Gulf. The main weather concern for today will be the heat, with highs in the lower 90s and dewpoints in the upper 70s driving heat indices as high as 110F during the midday and afternoon hours.
300 AM EDT Fri Jul 19 2024 The front that moved into the region yesterday will remain nearly stationary across the state through the weekend, resulting in unsettled weather and cooler temperatures. Water vapor imagery this morning depicted an upper trough axis centered over New England. At the sfc, latest analysis depicted a cold front (noted by a dew point gradient of mid to upper 60s west; lower to mid 70s east) draped across the far southwestern NC mountains northeast through the NC foothills region.
Temperatures are in the low to mid 70s at this hour under mostly cloudy skies. - Likely to numerous afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms with the potential for gusty winds and flash flooding - Daytime temperatures expected to be near normal Upper level trough will continue digging into the Lower MS Valley with the remains of the frontal boundary stalled across the SE US. The synoptic situation will be slow to chance on Saturday with the main difference being the upper level trough axis slightly east of Fridays position.
Comfortable mid July morning in progress as high pressure blankets the region. 06Z temperatures ranged from the mid 50s to the lower 60s. Tranquil weather is expected through tonight as high pressure remains the dominant influence across the Ohio Valley. The center of the high will linger across the lower Great Lakes and maintain a dry northeast flow through the boundary layer.
With the trough remaining to our west and the front nearby, low to slight chance PoPs will continue overnight. CLoud cover today in the moist air mass will limit temperatures to the lower to mid 80s in most spots.
311 AM EDT Fri Jul 19 2024 Dry weather will continue through the weekend for much of the area under high pressure. The main exception will be Saturday, where scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected mainly south and east of Pittsburgh with a crossing wave of low pressure. An upper trough will exit the region this morning, with rising 1000mb-500mb heights through the day. This should result in high temperatures a couple of degrees warmer than yesterday, but still near seasonable levels. A late afternoon shower is possible across the higher terrain area of Tucker county WV with diurnal instability, though this potential is low.
Itâs another gorgeous mid July day with some diurnal Cu as high pressure sits overhead. Heading into the weekend, showers will likely be ongoing across western and southern Minnesota as the low continues to move to the south.
(Today and tonight) We remain nestled between ridging to the east and troughing to the north and west. Expect daytime highs generally in the low to mid 90s with overnight lows generally in the low to mid 70s.
The front was located just south of TN this morning and high pressure centered over the Midwest was extending into our area. For tonight through Saturday, a mid level trough will set up over the Ms Valley. The upper air pattern will be characterized by broad troughing sandwiched between a strong Bermuda High to our east and a big hot ridge out west. The main trough axis will located just to our west, so we will be positioned under southwest flow aloft which will bring deep moisture and potential for soaking downpours at times.
(Friday through Saturday) The synoptic pattern which looks to define the course of this forecast period can be succinctly summarized as follows: a large area of ridging will dominate the western third of the CONUS, with its axis positioned over the western Rockies and intermountain West, while a trough of varying depth extends from the Great Lakes across the Midwest and occasionally down into the Plains.
1128 PM MDT Thu Jul 18 2024 A rather compact lobe of mid level vorticity has rounded the top of the ridge just north of the Canadian border and is continuing to head eastward/southeastward this evening. Around and underneath this wave, cooler temperatures aloft combined with ample daytime mixing has resulted in a couple bands of showers and thunderstorms.
415 AM EDT Fri Jul 19 2024 Sprawling high pressure over the Great Lakes will remain over the region through Saturday.
356 AM EDT Fri Jul 19 2024 High pressure will prevail through the weekend with a gradual warming trend. High pressure centered over the lower Great Lakes will keep dry conditions across the region. Highs will be a few degrees warmer than yesterday. The high will remain anchored just north of the forecast area through the period. Lows will fall into the upper 50s to lower 60s again with highs pushing just a bit warmer than the previous day once again.
248 AM EDT Fri Jul 19 2024 A broad area of high pressure will build into Southern New England through this evening. A pleasant day is on tap to end the week thanks to high pressure overhead which will result in clear skies and no rain, all while beneath a more comfortable (read: less humid) post frontal airmass. As for Saturday, the forecast remains dry but with increasing mid and high clouds ahead of a warm front which lifts through late in the day associated with a trough of low pressure to our north. Can't rule out an isolated shower after sundown with the cold frontal passage. High temperatures will be a few degrees warmer thanks to a marginally warmer airmass being advected overhead (850 mb temps rising to 14- 15C). High pressure over the Great Lakes continues to spread eastward into SNE.
143 AM EDT Fri Jul 19 2024 High pressure will bring mainly fair weather with seasonable temperatures through the end of the week.
334 AM EDT Fri Jul 19 2024 (Today through Saturday) Thanks to a broad 500 mb trough over the eastern CONUS, and a stationary boundary that has stalled over north Georgia, the short term forecast is going to sound a bit like a broken record with similar conditions on the horizon as to what we have seen over the last several days. While this forecast isn't particularly conducive to spending time outdoors this weekend, at least cooler daytime temperatures will prevail, with locations north of a line from Columbus to Eatonton to Washington in the 80s with areas south in the low 90s.
1240 AM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024 (This evening through Saturday) The cold front will continue to make progress and move south of the state by later today. Sfc ridging will build over the state in its wake and help to usher in drier air and below normal temperatures.
Fairly quiet this morning across most of the area with only a few remaining downpours along the Blue Ridge Foothills in southern Virginia. It continues to remain trapped between an upper level trough over the Great Lakes and a blocking upper level ridge over Bermuda that will keep the atmospheric pattern stagnant for the foreseeable future. Prevalent cloud cover should keep temperatures a little below normal on Saturday with highs mainly in the lower 70s to the lower 80s.
319 AM EDT Fri Jul 19 2024 - Somewhat warmer today into this weekend and beyond. Pattern/synopsis: 1022mb high pressure is over northern IL, and will remain anchored over the central and southern lakes region into tonight. Tonight, an e-w oriented cold front backdoors southward across Superior. Highs today upper 70s to around 80f, with some coastlines cooler. The strong upper level ridge of high pressure ("heat dome") across the Four Corners region is expected to remain anchored in place for at least the next several days leaving shallow troughing across the Great Lakes.
1138 PM EDT Thu Jul 18 2024 * High pressure brings cooler, drier, and less humid conditions to the region through the end of the workweek.
120 AM EDT Fri Jul 19 2024 High pressure will build into the region overnight and Friday.
(Today through Saturday afternoon) WV imagery shows an upper ridge centered over Arizona this morning, buttressed by a broad trough along or east of the MS Valley, leaving West Texas and Southeast New Mexico under meridional flow aloft. However, for those averse to warmer temperatures, the next couple of days do not bode well. Although the upper ridge is forecast to drift northwest, centering over the junction of AZ/CA/NV by Saturday afternoon, thicknesses are nevertheless set to increase. Southeasterly upslope flow will favor diurnally-driven junky storms over the higher terrain, assisted by impulses moving south through flow aloft. Saturday, as mentioned above, will be warmer than today, but only by a degree or two.
123 AM EDT Fri Jul 19 2024 Sprawling high pressure centered near Chicago will gradually build over our region through Saturday.
(Today through Saturday) Deep upper trough has taken up a lease on the eastern CONUS and is quite deep for this time of year. So hopefully, this troughiness will move on before the tropics start to heat up.
High pressure in the lower levels will be in place over the Midwest and Great Lakes through Saturday while slowly weakening. Patchy fog is possible in southern Michigan late tonight with the center of the high moving closer. Dew points tomorrow will be in the 50s again, quite comfortable, with temperatures a little cooler than normal for mid July. Moisture content of the lower troposphere may creep up slightly each day, presumably in part due to evapotranspiration across the region.
High temperatures today and Saturday will be slightly cooler, with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s. The overall pattern is a ridge over western North America this weekend that then slides eastward to central North America by mid/late week. Although the ridge will slide eastward, our weather will still be dominated by the ridge.
111 AM EDT Fri Jul 19 2024 High pressure will bring dry and seasonable weather to the region today with continued low humidity.
While those members may hold onto some of the convection into the valleys, the maintenance of convection yesterday afternoon over the valleys may hinder the storms from remaining quite as robust as the low levels were worked over a bit. Thus, looking at more isolated chances for storms in the valleys this afternoon with scattered expected over the higher terrain lasting into. For the storms that can propagate off the higher terrain, gusty outflow winds and isolated instances of flash flooding may occur. Looking at the upper level pattern, the mid/upper level high currently centered over north central AZ will migrate west/northwest resulting in the flow pattern gradually becoming northerly/northeasterly.
632 AM EDT Fri Jul 19 2024 High pressure will bring dry and seasonable weather to the region today with continued low humidity.
615 AM EDT Fri Jul 19 2024 The front that moved into the region yesterday will remain nearly stationary across the state through the weekend, resulting in unsettled weather and cooler temperatures. Water vapor imagery this morning depicted an upper trough axis centered over New England. At the sfc, latest analysis depicted a cold front (noted by a dew point gradient of mid to upper 60s west; lower to mid 70s east) draped across the far southwestern NC mountains northeast through the NC foothills region.
422 AM PDT Fri Jul 19 2024 High pressure over the southwest states and Great Basin will bring a more stable and slightly drier atmosphere through the weekend with very hot days and very warm nights for inland areas.
The center of the high pressure system is parked right over central Arizona, and the clockwise circulation around this center can be seen in current radar loops (showers in NE Arizona moving south, while showers in Coconino County are moving north).
Best chances for rain and storms will be south of the TN river as storms propagate north of the cold front located just south of the CWA border.
644 AM EDT Fri Jul 19 2024 High pressure will prevail through the weekend with a gradual warming trend. High pressure centered over the lower Great Lakes will keep dry conditions across the region. Highs will be a few degrees warmer than yesterday. The high will remain anchored just north of the forecast area through the period. Lows will fall into the upper 50s to lower 60s again with highs pushing just a bit warmer than the previous day once again.
529 AM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024 (Today through Saturday afternoon) WV imagery shows an upper ridge centered over Arizona this morning, buttressed by a broad trough along or east of the MS Valley, leaving West Texas and Southeast New Mexico under meridional flow aloft. However, for those averse to warmer temperatures, the next couple of days do not bode well. Although the upper ridge is forecast to drift northwest, centering over the junction of AZ/CA/NV by Saturday afternoon, thicknesses are nevertheless set to increase. Southeasterly upslope flow will favor diurnally-driven junky storms over the higher terrain, assisted by impulses moving south through flow aloft. Saturday, as mentioned above, will be warmer than today, but only by a degree or two.
914 AM EDT Fri Jul 19 2024 High pressure and fair weather through the weekend.
731 AM EDT Fri Jul 19 2024 - Somewhat warmer today into this weekend and beyond. Pattern/synopsis: 1022mb high pressure is over northern IL, and will remain anchored over the central and southern lakes region into tonight. Tonight, an e-w oriented cold front backdoors southward across Superior. Highs today upper 70s to around 80f, with some coastlines cooler. The strong upper level ridge of high pressure ("heat dome") across the Four Corners region is expected to remain anchored in place for at least the next several days leaving shallow troughing across the Great Lakes.
651 AM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024 (Friday through Saturday) The synoptic pattern which looks to define the course of this forecast period can be succinctly summarized as follows: a large area of ridging will dominate the western third of the CONUS, with its axis positioned over the western Rockies and intermountain West, while a trough of varying depth extends from the Great Lakes across the Midwest and occasionally down into the Plains.
647 AM EDT Fri Jul 19 2024 A broad area of high pressure will build into Southern New England through this evening. A pleasant day is on tap to end the week thanks to high pressure overhead which will result in clear skies and no rain, all while beneath a more comfortable (read: less humid) post frontal airmass. As for Saturday, the forecast remains dry but with increasing mid and high clouds ahead of a warm front which lifts through late in the day associated with a trough of low pressure to our north. Can't rule out an isolated shower after sundown with the cold frontal passage. High temperatures will be a few degrees warmer thanks to a marginally warmer airmass being advected overhead (850 mb temps rising to 14- 15C). High pressure over the Great Lakes continues to spread eastward into SNE.
1018 AM EDT Fri Jul 19 2024 High pressure will bring dry and seasonable weather to the region today with continued low humidity.
(Today through Saturday) Thanks to a broad 500 mb trough over the eastern CONUS, and a stationary boundary that has stalled over north Georgia, the short term forecast is going to sound a bit like a broken record with similar conditions on the horizon as to what we have seen over the last several days. While this forecast isn't particularly conducive to spending time outdoors this weekend, at least cooler daytime temperatures will prevail, with locations north of a line from Columbus to Eatonton to Washington in the 80s with areas south in the low 90s.
649 AM EDT Fri Jul 19 2024 (Today and tonight) We remain nestled between ridging to the east and troughing to the north and west. Expect daytime highs generally in the low to mid 90s with overnight lows generally in the low to mid 70s.
544 AM EDT Fri Jul 19 2024 Dry weather will continue through the weekend for much of the area under high pressure. The main exception will be Saturday, where scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected mainly south and east of Pittsburgh with a crossing wave of low pressure. An upper trough will exit the region this morning, with rising 1000mb-500mb heights through the day. This should result in high temperatures a couple of degrees warmer than yesterday, but still near seasonable levels. A late afternoon shower is possible across the higher terrain area of Tucker county WV with diurnal instability, though this potential is low.
542 AM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024 (Today and tonight) The weak cold front/outflow boundary that caused the showers and thunderstorms yesterday for southern areas, has made it near or south of Interstate 10 in our area.
1004 AM EDT Fri Jul 19 2024 Dry weather will continue through the weekend for much of the area under high pressure. The main exception will be Saturday, where scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected mainly south and east of Pittsburgh with a crossing wave of low pressure. An upper trough will exit the region this morning, with rising 1000mb-500mb heights through the day. This should result in high temperatures a couple of degrees warmer than yesterday, but still near seasonable levels. A late afternoon shower is possible across the higher terrain area of Tucker county WV with diurnal instability, though this potential is low.