Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
After a pronounced radiational cooling event overnight, with temperatures dropping into the lower 60s across the Island Chain, ample sunshine is allowing temperatures to quickly rebound into the mid 70s at this mid-morning Sunday hour. From synopsis, weak high pressure will continue to promote light to gentle breezes today through Monday. Another high pressure system will traverse across the eastern United States early this week while slowly strengthening.
Amplifying ridging aloft across the Gulf builds into the Gulf Coast States Wed. is shunted southward and pushed offshore into the Atlc by a vigorous mid-level trough to the north into the weekend. High pressure will build slowly back into the area, post-frontal, with the pressure gradient (winds) relaxing.
1109 AM CST Sun Nov 16 2025 - Relatively cooler today, but above average temperatures continue until mid to late week, at which point they look closer to seasonal.
(This evening through Monday night) An upper level ridge extends from South Texas to well north of Montana and is spread across most of the northern Gulf Coast. An upper trough diving southeast through the Great Lakes and Northeast will flatten the east side of the ridge somewhat, but this won't cause any appreciable changes to local weather.
UPDATE Surface ridging is in place and clear skies/light winds have created ideal radiational conditions, with morning lows in the teens over parts of northeast ND and northwest MN. Climate averages for highs this time of year rapidly drop from the mid 30s (today) to near freezing for over the 7 day period for reference.
1132 AM CST Sun Nov 16 2025 - Dry conditions expected today into Monday as high pressure dominates the pattern. High temps will be around 5-10 degrees cooler than yesterday.
1029 AM EST Sun Nov 16 2025 - Cooler and much drier air arrives for today and Monday behind this morning's cold front passage.
1244 PM MST Sun Nov 16 2025 - Weather system late today into Monday brings cooler temperatures and the chance of precipitation (20 to 50 percent chance). While ridging is currently in place over the region, southwest flow from an approaching low pressure system is transporting moisture.
Updated at 1022 AM CST Sun Nov 16 2025 - Cooler conditions today and tomorrow.
1233 PM EST Sun Nov 16 2025 - Cooler and much drier air arrives for today and Monday behind this morning's cold front passage.
Updated at 1101 AM CST SUN NOV 16 2025 - A cold front will bring a milder airmass on Monday.
1253 PM EST Sun Nov 16 2025 Warm and breezy today ahead of a dry cold front.
1215 PM EST Sun Nov 16 2025 Becoming much colder and windier through Monday in the wake of a cold front.
318 PM EST Sun Nov 16 2025 High pressure moves in from the west, ending the lake effect on Monday.
- Cooler and breezy today, especially in Illinois, with winds of 15 to 25 mph at times. Highs today will be much cooler, but not far off of normal for mid November.
1028 AM MST Sun Nov 16 2025 - Weather system late today into Monday brings cooler temperatures and the chance of precipitation (20 to 50 percent chance). Current satellite imagery showed an upper ridge building across our region with clouds encroaching from the southwest. A slow moving upper trough will track from the Great Basin to the Nebraska Panhandle with winds picking up in our SE section in response (20-40 mph gusts). Ridging then quickly takes over late Monday night for clearing.
1128 AM CST Sun Nov 16 2025 - Expect a cooler Sunday, with above normal temperatures rounding out the weekend.
110 PM EST Sun Nov 16 2025 Low pressure will track north across New Brunswick tonight then up over Newfoundland Monday into Monday night.
Updated at 210 PM CST Sun Nov 16 2025 - A weak front Monday yields gusty winds, along with slightly cooler temperatures early this week. - An upper-level system brings increasing rain chances and much cooler temperatures by the middle of the week. (This afternoon through Monday night) Cooler weather is on the horizon after several days of record- breaking warmth. At the surface, a lee trough sends a Pac front into our CWA Monday, leading to breezy, westerly and southwesterly winds and cooler conditions.
Updated at 1204 PM CST Sun Nov 16 2025 - Above average temperatures continue through mid week, then cooler behind a cold front later in the week.
Updated at 1033 AM CST Sun Nov 16 2025 - Cooler, dry weather for tonight and Monday.
354 PM EST Sun Nov 16 2025 Becoming much colder with breezy conditions continuing through Monday in the wake of a cold front.
High pressure remains over the region today with dry and seasonable conditions continuing.
637 PM CST Sun Nov 16 2025 Updated at 635 PM CST SUN NOV 16 2025 - A cold front will bring a milder airmass on Monday.
436 PM CST Sun Nov 16 2025 Updated at 434 PM CST Sun Nov 16 2025 - Cooler, dry weather for tonight and Monday.
741 PM EST Sun Nov 16 2025 - Lake effect snow continues tonight, ending Monday - Dry and milder weather developing through midweek - Rain chances return for the end of the week Upper lower over New England continues to slide slowly northeast tonight, with deep layer northwest flow continuing across the Great Lakes. With temperatures dipping below freezing tonight, wet roads could become icy in spots - another impact to monitor. The activity should wind down throughout the day with continued drying and rising heights/upper ridging pushing in from the west. A relatively quiet stretch of weather through much of the week as high pressure builds into the Great Lakes. High pressure building into the area will diminish the strength/coverage of tne lake effect snow bands with time overnight into early Monday.
645 PM EST Sun Nov 16 2025 Becoming much colder with breezy conditions continuing through Monday in the wake of a cold front.
The track of this low is expected to remain mostly south of our area, but isolated to scattered lower elevation rain and mountain snow showers are still forecast over southern Montana into northern Wyoming Monday. Arends While ridging is currently in place over the region, southwest flow from an approaching low pressure system is transporting moisture.
502 PM CST Sun Nov 16 2025 Updated at 501 PM CST Sun Nov 16 2025 - Above average temperatures continue through mid week, then cooler behind a cold front later in the week.
522 PM CST Sun Nov 16 2025 Updated at 516 PM CST Sun Nov 16 2025 - Although cooler than previous days, unseasonably warm highs continue the first half of the week.
239 PM MST Sun Nov 16 2025 KEY MESSAGES: - There is a slight chance of patchy freezing fog occurring again tonight.
The area is situated between a trough and ridge, allowing for upper southerly winds to bring abundant moisture and widespread cloud cover into the area.
Light winds and clearing skies are on tap this evening, following our first in a series of low pressure systems as it exits the area.
747 PM CST Sun Nov 16 2025 Updated at 740 PM CST Sun Nov 16 2025 - Cooler, dry weather for tonight and Monday.
An upper trough is pushing a band of rain showers across west side valleys this afternoon. Showers will continue moving east this evening, with activity peaking as the trough splits early Monday morning. Other west side areas may see periods of moderate precipitation, depending on how the low splits.
441 PM CST Sun Nov 16 2025 Updated at 1022 AM CST Sun Nov 16 2025 - Cooler conditions today and tomorrow.
- Precipitation chances (30-50%) return Monday evening with the highest chances occurring along and east of I-35.
524 PM CST Sun Nov 16 2025 Updated at 522 PM CST Sun Nov 16 2025 - A weak front Monday yields gusty winds, along with slightly cooler temperatures early this week. - An upper-level system brings increasing rain chances and much cooler temperatures by the middle of the week. (This afternoon through Monday night) Cooler weather is on the horizon after several days of record- breaking warmth. At the surface, a lee trough sends a Pac front into our CWA Monday, leading to breezy, westerly and southwesterly winds and cooler conditions.
514 PM CST Sun Nov 16 2025 - Dry and sunny conditions this afternoon and Monday, but 5-10 degrees cooler than yesterday.
Road temps on I-80 are just now dipping to/below freezing. One knock against that is that temps (esp road temps) will get back above freezing as the sun breaks through the clouds occasionally. After midnight, a patch of lift over a warm front will race across the Midwest. There could be a pocket or two of ZR stuck in the Laurels, but most of the sfc temps will be AOA freezing by the time the precip reaches. Any snow accums will be on the higher elevations (>2000ft).
There could be a quick burst of snow, accums an inch or less, along and south of I-96 Tuesday morning before sfc temps rise above freezing. Timing should be better defined as the precip gets into the domain of the high resolution models. Temperatures rise above freezing by noon and no travel impacts are expected for the afternoon. The upper low shears out and is absorbed in broad cyclonic flow across the NE CONUS.
A weak area of low pressure passes to our south Tuesday night with high pressure building into the region behind it. The high pressure will give way to several low pressure systems tracking into the Great Lakes later this week bringing showers. Ratios should be reduced somewhat during the day, closer to 10:1 given borderline temperatures near freezing on Monday with 15:1 or so values at night.
1059 PM CST Sun Nov 16 2025 - Dry and sunny conditions this afternoon and Monday, but 5-10 degrees cooler than yesterday. - A more active pattern develops late this upcoming week, but the potential for large, impactful low pressure systems remains low. High pressure will bring clear skies and dry conditions across the Northland this afternoon and continuing into Monday. It will feel cooler than it has recently, with high temperatures expected to be in the mid-30s to mid-40s.
High res guidance continues to show the potential for some of these bands/squalls to reach pretty far inland overnight, potentially even extending into the Lower Susquehanna Valley. High temperatures will range from the low 30s to the mid 40s.
Outside of fog chances, high pressure at the surface centered to our east will keep conditions rather quiet through the short term. This combined with upper level ridging allows for well above normal temperatures for this time of year, with afternoon highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s.
- High pressure brings quieter weather for most of this week with highs above freezing and lows below freezing. Aloft, a stacked, closed upper low is over New England while expansive ridging resides over the Plains. Further upstream, a closed low is over Utah while pronounced troughing is just off the coast of the Pacific Northwest. Lake Superior continues to cool, though it remains slightly warmer than normal still at around 7-8 C. Additionally, encroaching surface ridging will further take away forcing that would help lake effect showers. For Tuesday, the aforementioned closed low currently over Utah is expected to progress through the Plains and pass to the south of the UP, keeping all of its precipitation out of the area.
1245 AM EST Mon Nov 17 2025 Cooler temperatures are expected today and will be quickly replaced with a warming trend through the remainder of the week. It's weak baroclinicity will be evident by tomorrow's highs generally only being about 2 degrees cooler than today's.
The high will pass over during the day Monday, giving light winds and another day of fair weather. High clouds spilling over an upper level ridge to our west may begin to show up before the day is done on Monday, with clouds then lowering and thickening on Monday night. An upper low currently over the Great Basin will be booted eastward ahead of a large system moving onshore in CA. Low level flow ahead of it will pull gulf moisture north and northeast, overrunning a surface warm front which will still be to our southwest through Monday night. Still forecasting readings to rise above freezing before any rain from the next weather system arrives, but it will be watched. Tuesday morning, showers will continue to overspread Eastern Kentucky as a warm front progresses into the area from the southwest.
Given the rather continuous WAA aloft today, since cloud cover is already resulting from this, I'm inclined to believe we'll see mainly cloudy skies today, which supports holding temperatures towards the cooler 25%NBM, which is mid/upper 40s north to low 50s central, and some mid 50s in the far south. The depth of moisture appears to dry off above 5Kft Tuesday morning, with saturation continuing near the surface as the low moves overhead. Saturated temperatures above freezing near the surface up through 7kft, should keep precipitation liquid through the event.
Drier (but not completely dry) and several degrees cooler wx is forecast Monday night and Tuesday, followed by generally dry but still mild weather the rest of the coming week.
High pressure builds back overhead by midweek, aiding in the warm dry conditions. Temperatures will linger around the low to mid 80s through the week.
1254 AM EST Mon Nov 17 2025 Cooler temperatures are expected today and will be quickly replaced with a warming trend through the remainder of the week. High pressure builds in tonight, centered to our north but with a ridge axis extending into the region.
Near surface dewpoints have slightly increased, but all that will do is cap any ongoing radiational cooling tonight to about near 60 at the lowest. From synopsis, weak high pressure will continue to promote light to gentle breezes across the Florida Keys coastal waters through Monday. Another high pressure system will traverse across the eastern United States early this week while slowly strengthening.
Updated at 1050 PM CST Sun Nov 16 2025 - Cooler and dry on Monday, but a return to above-normal temperatures beginning Tuesday.
1038 PM CST Sun Nov 16 2025 Updated at 1038 PM CST Sun Nov 16 2025 - A weak front Monday yields gusty winds, along with slightly cooler temperatures early this week. - An upper-level system brings increasing rain chances and much cooler temperatures by the middle of the week. (This afternoon through Monday night) Cooler weather is on the horizon after several days of record- breaking warmth. At the surface, a lee trough sends a Pac front into our CWA Monday, leading to breezy, westerly and southwesterly winds and cooler conditions.
- Above normal temperatures may return to portions of South Florida towards the middle and the end of the week as mid level ridging strengthens over the region. High temperatures will remain right around climatological normals today with highs in the lower 80s. On Tuesday, most areas should remain in the lower 80s however portions of interior South Florida may peak in the mid or even upper 80s.
Partly to mostly cloudy skies continus this evening, allowing for temperatures to be slightly warmer this evening than last night, although the coldest conditions will be in northwest Minnesota where skies are most clear.
1056 PM CST Sun Nov 16 2025 Updated at 1055 PM CST Sun Nov 16 2025 - Cooler and dry on Monday, but a return to above-normal temperatures beginning Tuesday.
Meanwhile, some light rain and mountain snow continues to wrap around the back side of the low, resulting in overcast skies and showers across Inyo County and southwestern Nevada. This low will gradually shift east this evening with precipitation chances dwindling overnight.
Updated at 1056 PM CST Sun Nov 16 2025 - Slightly cooler conditions today with very dry conditions in place, before a further warming trend begins by the middle of the week. Temperatures are in the lower 40s (far northeastern Alabama) to around 50 degrees (NW Alabama). Winds luckily will be mainly be between around 5 mph or less, as a large area of high pressure builds into the area.
817 PM PST Sun Nov 16 2025 Showers will continue across the region through Tuesday as a couple of troughs pass through the region.
Updated at 1157 PM CST Sun Nov 16 2025 - Above average temperatures continue through mid week, then cooler behind a cold front later in the week.
111 AM EST Mon Nov 17 2025 As high pressure builds into the region early this week, the forecast is expected to remain rain-free throughout the work week.
(Today and Tonight) A weak cold front is traversing south through the region this morning. Drier and cooler conditions can be expected tonight with overnight lows dropping into the low to mid 40s and the low 50s along the coastline.
- Cloudy and mild start with patchy fog likely to improve by around lunch with a warmer afternoon and gusty S/SW winds.
Northwesterly confluent mid-level flow on the upstream side of a large upper trough exiting the Northeast US today will continue to support a cool and dry air mass over the region today and tonight. After a chilly morning, especially in the valleys, temperatures recover into the lower to mid 50s, with light northwesterly winds in the afternoon.
- Cooler temperatures, but still above climatic normals for the time of year through the period. WV satellite imagery shows upper low centered near central Nevada shifting northeast, with pair of amplified troughs in the Pacific. As upper low approaches Idaho later today, expect main focus for precipitation to shift to eastern highlands for the evening and overnight. Temperatures remain mild as cold front pushes northeast across the area. Upper trough should be east of Idaho by early Monday but next split system is already along the coast. There is a weak 5H ridge in place for Monday, but showers will remain possible across the region, mostly focused over higher elevations. Clusters portray the northern stream north of the US/Canada border with either a closed low or open trough near the Four Corners and Southern Rockies or off the California coast.
1050 PM EST Sun Nov 16 2025 - Lake effect snow continues tonight, ending Monday - Dry and milder weather developing through midweek - Rain chances return for the end of the week Upper lower over New England continues to slide slowly northeast tonight, with deep layer northwest flow continuing across the Great Lakes. With temperatures dipping below freezing tonight, wet roads could become icy in spots - another impact to monitor. The activity should wind down throughout the day with continued drying and rising heights/upper ridging pushing in from the west. A relatively quiet stretch of weather through much of the week as high pressure builds into the Great Lakes. High pressure building into the area will continue to diminish the strength/coverage of the lake effect snow bands with time overnight into early Monday.
As the trough center tracks across western Nebraska into this afternoon, expect low-level response to pivot more westerly and increase 15-25 mph, gusting occasionally to near 35 mph. Subtle ridging will emerge behind the trough and just ahead of the next digging trough that will be entering the western U.
327 AM CST Mon Nov 17 2025 - Precipitation chances (30-60%) return this afternoon/evening with the highest chances occurring along and east of I-35.
The axis of shallow moisture and associated cloud cover will progress northeast of the forecast area this afternoon as temperatures surge into the low to mid 70s. A decrease in afternoon temperatures is expected as well with Tuesday's highs ranging from the low 60s across central KS to the mid 70s across southeast KS.
621 AM EST Mon Nov 17 2025 As high pressure builds into the region early this week, the forecast is expected to remain rain-free throughout the work week.
A cut-off low will split from the southern edge of a passing through, and this will allow for lingering precipitation through this evening mainly for northern California as this cut-off low slowly meanders south/southeast through tonight.
Upper level ridging over Saskatchewan into North Dakota with an eastward moving 500 mb low moving from Utah/Colorado into Nebraska tonight and into Iowa Tuesday. Overall trend continues to be taking the higher rain chances south.
504 AM CST Mon Nov 17 2025 Updated at 501 AM CST Mon Nov 17 2025 - Cooler and dry on Monday, but a return to above-normal temperatures beginning Tuesday.
340 AM CST Mon Nov 17 2025 - Much warmer than normal temperatures are expected through the end of this week.
Updated at 1218 AM PST Mon Nov 17 2025 - A strong cold front is moving through early Monday morning, bringing heavy rain, strong winds, and a small chance for waterspouts.
531 AM CST Mon Nov 17 2025 - Much warmer than normal temperatures are expected through the end of this week.
608 AM CST Mon Nov 17 2025 - Cloudy and mild start with patchy fog likely to improve by around lunch with a warmer afternoon and gusty S/SW winds.
542 AM CST Mon Nov 17 2025 - Precipitation chances (30-60%) return this afternoon/evening with the highest chances occurring along and east of I-35.
615 AM EST Mon Nov 17 2025 Cooler temperatures are expected today and will be quickly replaced with a warming trend through the remainder of the week. High pressure builds in tonight, centered to our north but with a ridge axis extending into the region.
A passing trough will bring light rainfall through this afternoon before we start to see diminishing trends this evening. A cut-off low will split from the southern edge of a passing through, and this will allow for lingering precipitation through this evening mainly for northern California as this cut-off low slowly meanders south/southeast through tonight.
528 AM CST Mon Nov 17 2025 Updated at 519 AM CST Mon Nov 17 2025 - Above average temperatures continue through mid week, then cooler behind a cold front later in the week.
Winds will be generally light thanks to an area of high pressure moving ashore, but we'll still see some areas of PROB30 light rain in PDT/YKM through the late morning to early afternoon hours.
Split flow continues across the Central and Northern Plains today, with an upper low traversing northern Nebraska and southern South Dakota. The northern portions of this low will bring a slight chance for light rain into southeast North Dakota tonight; however, with dry air in place, much of this precipitation will struggle to reach the surface.
Another storm system moving into Southeast Arizona the middle of the this week will bring cooler temperatures, chances for precipitation including snowfall above 7000 feet in the Sky Islands, and breezy conditions on Tuesday.
223 PM EST Mon Nov 17 2025 * Blustery with lake effect snow bands lasting into the evening * Light rain/snow possible later Tuesday into Tuesday night followed by a slightly milder trend through late week Most areas are above freezing, and bands have not stayed in one area long enough to add to a lot more in the way of snow today, thus let flags expire at 18Z. Also the low levels are quite dry.
High temperatures are forecast to climb into the lower 80s areawide. A stationary frontal boundary across the region will lift north as a warm front this afternoon, lifting into Arkansas by midnight tonight. Additionally, a surface cold front will swing east into Oklahoma. Upper-level flow will be mainly westerly with enough forcing in the warm sector ahead of the cold front to allow for a chance for a few stray showers and thundersorms, mainly across south Arkansas and southeast Oklahoma this evening. Weak upper-level ridging to maintain dry conditions through Tuesday.
At the sfc, high pressure will remain in control with southeasterly to southerly flow bringing increased moisture to the area. Currently, a warm front is draped from northwest to southeast across the area separating a warmer and more moist airmass across southeast Mississippi and extreme southwest Alabama from the a cooler and much drier airmass to the northeast. Temperatures will remain above normal through the period, likely flirting with a few record highs by midweek as an upper ridge builds across the area.
237 PM EST Mon Nov 17 2025 High pressure will build overhead tonight and move offshore Tuesday afternoon.