Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Above average temperatures continue, except during mid-week when seasonal to below average temperatures are expected due to a cold front passing through the area. Upper level ridge remains in place giving us more warm and generally dry weather. Even though a ridge is in place, we have enough instability for the development of showers and a few thunderstorms.
A few isolated showers are possible this afternoon and evening near a cold front. Discussion: Satellite shows an extensive cumulus field across the region, but with very little vertical development until you get to northern Middle TN and central KY, along an approaching cold front.
At the upper-levels the subtropical jet was located over the southern Plains, allowing a strong mid-level ridge to be in place across west Texas and New Mexico. Some weaknesses in the ridge could allow some scattered thunderstorms late this afternoon in the more humid airmass.
355 PM EDT Mon May 27 2024 A cold front will move east tonight.
In wake of the cold front that brought us those storms, a dry air mass is filtering into the region which has resulted in a pleasant Memorial Day with partly cloudy conditions and temperatures in the low to mid 80s.
Otherwise, expect above normal temperatures to remain across the area today, with highs in the low to mid 90s. Cold front to push through much of the region today bringing lower dewpoints areawide. Otherwise, the remainder of the region should experience high temperatures inn the lower to middle 90s. Otherwise, mainly dry conditions to prevail with lows ranging from the mid 60s across the lower 70s.
More opportunities for showers and thunderstorms will exist across northern and northeastern Nevada Tuesday as an upper- level trough moves through the region.
Early afternoon satellite imagery shows a H5 ridge axis of high pressure directly over the Gem State which will continue to shift east into Tuesday as temperatures see a warming trend and conditions remain dry with plenty of sunshine. When looking at climatology, Tuesday May 28th will be in the top 10 latest first 80 degree dates for Pocatello, Burley, and Rexburg which goes to highlight the overall, cooler than normal spring so far.
This afternoon into early this evening: Deep trough in the Great Lakes region has spokes of vorticity in the northwest flow. Overnight: Partly cloudy skies and comfortable temperatures with lows bottoming out in the lower 50s at most locations.
A series of cold fronts will move through central NC through mid week with high pressure building overhead for the weekend. At the surface, a cold front that pushed through central NC on Monday night and Tuesday morning will linger over eastern NC through the day. NW flow behind the cold front will bring much lower dew points in the 50s. However, it will take a while for the cooler air to get here, so expect another warmer-than-normal day with highs in the mid-to-upper-80s, maybe touching 90 in the far south.
1139 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024 (Rest of Today) Rain has tapered off across the Tennessee Valley in wake of the cold frontal passage -- and with that the threat for severe weather has come to an end.
A few storms are possible north of the boundary this afternoon as the larger mid level trough and sfc cold front pushed through.
139 PM MST Mon May 27 2024 Quiet conditions are in store as high pressure encompasses much of the western United States during the majority of the next seven days.
1102 AM MDT Mon May 27 2024 - Dry and warmer today and Tuesday - Thunderstorms return for the last half of the week.
130 PM PDT Mon May 27 2024 Warmer this afternoon than yesterday, especially inland where temperatures will be 5 to 15 degrees higher than yesterday. Temperatures are mostly a few degrees higher than at this time yesterday, however temperatures in the Inland Empire range from 4 to 13 degrees warmer than yesterday.
Warmer today as a warming trend continues through the week. If one were to overlay the morning layer footprint and 24 hour trends one would see cooler temps today where the marine layer had some influence. Areas outside of the marine layer footprint are running a little warmer than yesterday. The ridge the brought our recent warmup will flatten as a broad upper level trough sweeps through the PacNW. The flattening ridge will keep the marine layer established with overall cooling temperatures, still below seasonal averages.
The weather pattern will start to change as the ridge starts to depart and troughing starts to move into Florida.
Upper level troughing will linger over the eastern U. The westerly flow will take the highest rain chances into the interior and eastern half of the Florida peninsula Tuesday afternoon as the boundary washes out over the area.
1025 AM PDT Mon May 27 2024 Warmer today as a warming trend continues through the week. A few locations in the interior have the potential to be a couple of degrees warmer. Summer time ridge pattern in full effect to round out the holiday weekend.
Hotter temperatures are expected across the lower deserts today with highs peaking in the high 90s to lower 100s, or around 5 degrees above average. Latest IR WV imagery reveals a low amplitude ridge centered over the western CONUS. This ridging pattern will continue to build today with 500 mb hghts rising to around 583-585 dam over southeast CA and southcentral AZ. In response, warmer temperatures are anticipated with highs reaching the upper 90s to around 103 degrees across the lower deserts. On Tuesday, the aforementioned ridge over the western U. Chances of 105+ degrees remain around 30-70% across the lower deserts on Tuesday afternoon.
824 PM EDT Mon May 27 2024 A cold front will move east tonight.
While the upper ridge moves over the Rockies on Tuesday, an embedded disturbance will move through from the southwest, introducing slight chance to chance PoPs by afternoon, continuing into the evening and overnight period. Afternoon highs are forecast in the low to mid 80s; overnight lows are forecast in the low to mid 50s. Around mid-week, the upper ridge will move over the Plains, and an upper trough will enter the western CONUS.
553 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024 Through Tuesday: For the late afternoon to early evening, the main concerns will be heat stress, especially across southern portions of the area, and also for a continued marginal risk south of the Highway 84 corridor. During the overnight, expect fair weather conditions with slightly cooler low temperatures. The pattern will be one dominated by upper level troughing across the area keeping a boundary across our west/southwest and heavily contributing to the lingering precip chances. Over the course of the period we can expect to see a continuation of the H5 ridge building over the Southern Plains. This will lead to increased northwesterly flow, with a slightly drier and cooler airmass moving in bringing high temperatures in the low to high 80s by midweek.
Due to the continuing upper level ridge over the Western US, high temperatures will be warm and summer-like for inland areas today. This evening and overnight, a trough will move through the Pacific Northwest bringing subsequent moisture and cooler temperatures to Northwest California.
Yesterdays Summer Pacific cold front is stalled out across northcentral Texas and expected to remain stationary until perhaps late this week. In the upper levels, northwest flow aloft is returning with a weak ridge building over the Western U. In addition to elevated storms, models in consensus with strong isentropic upglide in the lower through mid- levels (305-315 K surfaces) starting early Tuesday so plenty of ascent in the lower levels from warm advection.
1034 PM EDT Mon May 27 2024 A deep storm system over eastern Canada will bring cooler temperatures to the region into mid week. Winds have weaken the last few hours, but will likely kick up at times, as the cooler air works into the region. An upper level trough rotating around a deep upper level low over eastern Hudson Bay will bring cooler temperatures to the Keystone state on Tuesday. Temps may peak only in the low 60s across the highest terrain of the north and west with 70s in the Central and Southern Valleys.
A surface front will continue to push through the CWA overnight resulting in drier conditions for Tuesday and perhaps through mid- week as high pressure builds across portions of the southeast. A few storms are possible north of the boundary this afternoon as the larger mid level trough and sfc cold front pushed through.
Despite deep layer troughing stirring up strong to severe storms across the east coast of CONUS earlier this evening, deep layer ridging in the Gulf will keep hold of our sensible weather. From synopsis, high pressure over the western North Atlantic will maintain light to gentle southeast to south breezes through Tuesday.
An upper level ridge will begin to build to the east of the area today, while upper level troughing over the northeastern Pacific continuing to influence western Washington. This will bring warmer temperatures to the area today, but will allow for some light showers to develop along the coast.
The cooler downdraft outflow from the gust front will help stabilize the low level airmass as the surface front across south- central GA this evening shifts southward across the forecast area through the night. Storm strength is expected to continue to gradually weaken as the low level airmass stabilizes with decreasing diurnal instability and as convection nears NE FL where a persistent subsidence inversion near 750 mb remained firmly in place this evening per the 00z JAX sounding. Passing mid level short wave trough energy over the southward progressing front will continue a chance of showers and mainly isolated storms through the night and into Tuesday morning, with mid level lapse rates of -7 to -8 degC/km maintaining the potential for a lone strong storm which could produce locally gusty near 40 mph and small hail.
1054 PM EDT Mon May 27 2024 A cold front will move east tonight.
1024 PM EDT Mon May 27 2024 A cold front will then move through late tonight and Tuesday.
811 PM EDT Mon May 27 2024 A cold front will move through the area later tonight and early Tuesday.
As of 2 pm, Tucson Airport hit 96 degrees which is 4 degrees warmer than previous 24 hours. Tomorrow, Tucson and the low lying areas to the west have better chances of hitting 100 degrees. For the rest of the week, temperatures will generally stay elevated around the triple digit mark for the lower elevations and mid to upper 90s.
Tuesday looks to be a degree or two warmer still. A weak ridge of high pressure is beginning to build over the Great Basin and 4 Corners regions this afternoon. The ridge will gradually build and slide eastward toward the plains states over the coming days while a dry and generally zonal flow continues over Arizona. The pattern remains more active to our north with a couple more trough passages forecast later in the week, having little impact on northern Arizona other than fluctuating wind directions.
819 PM EDT Mon May 27 2024 A few showers and thunderstorms remain possible this evening until a cold front moves through the region. More seasonable temperatures and drier conditions are expected behind the front through late week as high pressure area builds in from the upper Mississippi Valley. However, a few showers and thunderstorms remain possible this evening until a cold front moves through the region. Upper level trough will be over the eastern US through the short term with high pressure and drier air building in behind the front.
(Tonight) Drier air continues to filter in from the northwest in the wake of a cold front that has now pushed into southern AL and GA. Otherwise, expect a seasonal overnight with lows dipping down into the low to mid 60s by tomorrow morning.
756 PM EDT Mon May 27 2024 A cold front will then move through late tonight and Tuesday.
757 PM EDT Mon May 27 2024 A few showers and thunderstorms remain possible this evening as a cold front moves through the region. More seasonable temperatures and drier conditions are expected behind the front through late week as high pressure area builds in from the upper Mississippi Valley. Rain chances will quickly end once the cold front passes through tonight with a wind shift and clearing skies. Upper level trough will be over the eastern US through the short term with high pressure and drier air building in behind the front.
Warm but quiet this evening as an upper-level ridge holds over the Western US. A weak ridging/zonal pattern looks to set up mid- to-late week, keeping temps above normal and light afternoon breezes.
Quiet conditions are in store as high pressure encompasses much of the western United States during the majority of the next seven days.
Sites could see some MVFR cigs develop toward morning, but confidence remains on the low side so will only mention here. Overall, no headlines are expected through the period as weak high pressure builds back in for the rest of the week.
The strongest storms with gusty winds and hail looks to be over Baker County, OR and northern portions of Malheur County, OR, especially as the cold front moves in by early tomorrow night.
719 PM EDT Mon May 27 2024 Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are possible again during the afternoon as a cold front crosses the region.
700 PM EDT Mon May 27 2024 Severe weather is likely today, mainly over the eastern half of the state as a low pressure area passes over the Upper Great Lakes and drags a cold front through by late evening. An upper level trough will build into the region for the remaining portion of the week.
Given the high theta-e air mass that may pool along the outflow boundary as well, there is a risk of very efficient rainfall production as well and thus, flash flooding.
330 AM EDT Tue May 28 2024 A cold front will move through the area through the early afternoon.
Cool and showery conditions continue through the end of the week with drier and warmer conditions at the start of the upcoming weekend. Evening update: Upper level trough approaching the northwest through Tuesday morning is producing elevated instability ahead of it. JW 00Z TAFS: Mid to high clouds will continue to filter through the region as the ridge begins to slowly be replaced with the next trough system.
154 AM EDT Tue May 28 2024 A cold front will move east tonight.
Extensive high pressure to the south will exert some influence as it competes with the trough extending from an intense low pressure system in the Gulf of Alaska. A low pressure trough moving inland to our north on Wed could bring a slight deepening of the marine layer and minor cooling - mainly west of the mtns.
922 PM MDT Mon May 27 2024 Mainly dry conditions can be expected through most of the short term forecast as an upper ridge builds in from the west over the region. Temperatures will approach 80 degrees for many areas on Tuesday as the ridge axis moves overhead.
The ridge of high pressure over the Northern Rockies on Monday will shift eastward today as a trough of low pressure deepens over the West Coast.
High temperatures are forecast to reach the low to mid 80s with northwesterly winds around 5-10 mph, occasionally gusting to 15 mph.
A series of reinforcing cold fronts will then move across during the middle of the week.
Rather than drylines and cold fronts, this week's weather is brought to you mainly by warm air advection and northwest flow. At the time of writing, we sit with easterly surface flow and a warm front draped across north Texas from about Sweetwater to Aspermont to Denton. With the loss of the low level jet and dwindling instability, severe chances will be on the downtick despite increasing coverage of storms.
A mid level trough is currently over the Deep Southeast and northern Florida. Current temperatures are still warm, especially for this time of night with temperatures in the low to upper 80s and are expected to drop into the low to upper 70s overnight into the morning hours. Isolated showers are possible (PoPs ~ 20%) well ahead of the trough into early Tuesday, mainly offshore.
141 AM EDT Tue May 28 2024 A cold front will move through Tuesday.
At the surface, this system is pulling a cold front into northern Florida and the northeastern Gulf of Mexico, where it will stall out as the upper level trough pulls away.
1037 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024 Clear skies and light winds prevail across the Mid-South as weak high pressure builds into the area.
1208 AM PDT Tue May 28 2024 Warmer today as a warming trend continues through the week. If one were to overlay the morning layer footprint and 24 hour trends one would see cooler temps today where the marine layer had some influence. Areas outside of the marine layer footprint are running a little warmer than yesterday. The ridge the brought our recent warmup will flatten as a broad upper level trough sweeps through the PacNW. The flattening ridge will keep the marine layer established with overall cooling temperatures, still below seasonal averages.
1121 PM EDT Mon May 27 2024 A cold front crosses through our region tonight into Tuesday morning. Weak high pressure builds through the region Tuesday.
(Now through Tonight) High pressure will build across the area in the wake of a cold front that currently remains draped along the I-10 corridor. A broad upper trough encompassing much of the eastern CONUS will keep a northwesterly flow pattern aloft. Thus, expect highs to climb into the lower to mid 90s this afternoon. Clear skies will persist overnight, with radiational cooling allowing lows to fall into the lower 60s across our inland zones to lower 70s along the coast.
A cold front will move across the region tonight bringing a round of showers tonight into Tuesday.
Water vapor imagery highlights mean-layer ridging centered over Mexico and also east of the Lesser Antilles. There is a weakness in the ridge near the west-central Caribbean. Temperatures across the island chain are in the lower to mid 80s, although Big Pine briefly dipped into the upper 70s after sunset. The mean layer ridge centered over Mexico will remain intact, but its northeastern flank will flatten.
153 AM EDT Tue May 28 2024 A deep storm system over eastern Canada will bring cooler temperatures to the region into mid week. Winds have weaken the last few hours, but will likely kick up at times, as the cooler air works into the region. An upper level trough rotating around a deep upper level low over eastern Hudson Bay will bring cooler temperatures to the Keystone state on Tuesday. Temps may peak only in the low 60s across the highest terrain of the north and west with 70s in the Central and Southern Valleys.
141 AM EDT Tue May 28 2024 (This afternoon through Tuesday) The center of a mid-level ridge will spread over South Florida today, maintaining the hot and largely dry conditions over the area. The main story today will be the high temperatures, which will likely approach daily records, reaching the mid to even upper 90s (with any low 90s likely confined to the immediate coast). The ridge will break down on Tuesday as troughing shifts into the eastern CONUS, while a cold front will move into northern Florida (and then largely stall for the mid-week period). Given increasing synoptic ascent of the trough, and the seasonably hot and unstable airmass south of the front, increased convective activity is expected with scattered to even perhaps numerous showers and thunderstorms.
412 AM EDT Tue May 28 2024 A cold front will pass overhead today, crossing the coastal waters tonight.
1041 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024 (Tonight) Drier air continues to filter in from the northwest in the wake of a cold front that has now pushed into southern AL and GA. Otherwise, expect a seasonal overnight with lows dipping down into the low to mid 60s by tomorrow morning.
1252 AM EDT Tue May 28 2024 A cold front crosses through our region tonight into Tuesday morning. Weak high pressure builds through the region Tuesday.
North of this boundary a >1017mb ridge was northwest to southeast across our CWA. Early morning satellite imagery/RAP analysis showed our region at the base of a broad upper level trough resulting in northwest flow aloft across our CWA. Temperatures will top out warmer than normal again today and mainly in the lower 90s.
214 AM EDT Tue May 28 2024 A cold front will move through the area later tonight and early Tuesday.
1115 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024 Clear skies and light winds prevail across the Mid-South as weak high pressure builds into the area.
336 AM EDT Tue May 28 2024 Drier, cooler weather moves in this week behind a front as high pressure builds in from the upper Mississippi Valley. Regional radar showing some scattered convection moving northeastward across the Coastal Plain brushing the eastern Midlands counties while the cold front remains to our west early this morning in the Upstate. Upper trough axis is also to our west currently and will cross the forecast area this afternoon. Expect overnight lows to be a couple of categories cooler with lows in the lower 60s.
Plenty of sunshine is expected today as dry air funnels in from the west and northwest and weak high pressure over the Plains slowly drifts toward us. Slightly cooler/drier air will filter in behind a weak frontal boundary.
221 AM EDT Tue May 28 2024 A few showers and thunderstorms remain possible this evening until a cold front moves through the region. More seasonable temperatures and drier conditions are expected behind the front through late week as high pressure area builds in from the upper Mississippi Valley. Regional radar showing some scattered convection moving northeastward across the Coastal Plain brushing the eastern Midlands counties while the cold front remains to our west early this morning in the Upstate. Upper trough axis is also to our west currently and will cross the forecast area this afternoon. Expect overnight lows to be a couple of categories cooler with lows in the lower 60s.
Cool and showery conditions continue through the end of the week with drier and warmer conditions at the start of the upcoming weekend. Evening update: Upper level trough approaching the northwest through Tuesday morning is producing elevated instability ahead of it.
159 AM EDT Tue May 28 2024 A cold front will move through the area later tonight and early Tuesday.
(Today and tonight) A "cold" front is forecast to work its way southeastward across the area today with drier and slightly cooler air filtering overhead in its wake. The front will knock down temperatures a few degrees, with lows overnight tonight dropping into the low to mid 60s inland to the upper 60s to near 70 near the coast.
328 AM EDT Tue May 28 2024 A cooler and drier air mass will gradually build into the region through the end of the week, with high pressure moving across the region at the start of the weekend.
Max POPs are over the NW Alleghenies and trend lower into the Lower Susquehanna Valley. Min temps will be in the low to mid 50s or near to slightly above (+5F) late May climo.
943 AM EDT Tue May 28 2024 A cooler and drier air mass will gradually build into the region through the end of the week, with high pressure moving across the region at the start of the weekend.
Cooler conditions are expected for Wednesday with noticeably lower humidity. Previous A cold front will move through the area today associated with a low pressure system to our north. Along with the passage of the cold front, a dry slot has worked in which has allowed the threat for heavy rainfall to come to an end. As an upper-level trough slides over the area today, steepening lapse rates will promote development of some scattered afternoon showers. A secondary cold front will drop through this evening into Wednesday, followed by a cooler and drier air mass. The cold front will continue to push south and east away from the region Wednesday night, bringing any lingering showers to an end overnight.