Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
While confidence in overall coverage and location overnight remains on the low side, will maintain similar thinking to inherited forecast with increasing rain chances overnight towards Friday morning ahead of a late- season cold front dropping into northern Florida tomorrow. At the surface, the Atlantic ridge axis is south of the area with a trough to the north. For tonight into Friday, troughing will deepen across the southeast, with a weak frontal boundary dropping into northern Florida.
530 PM MDT Thu May 29 2025 - Warmer temperatures and drier conditions will persist through Friday.
Guidance is hitting our east-central counties with the lowest visibilities, but suspect there will be fog over a larger area given the aforementioned reasons unless low clouds develop first. The long-awiated cold front is currently across northwest Arkansas, and will begin to move into our northwest counties tomorrow morning. Winds will begin to veer to the northwest ahead of the front in response to lee troughing, which may limit convergence.
1225 AM CDT Fri May 30 2025 Weak cold front is beginning to make some SE progress into our far NW zones this evening with some scattered convection that has been showing signs of weakening over the past hour.
A cold front in southern Ontario was dropping south toward Lake Superior. The cold frontal passage will generate northwest winds gusting to 25 mph this afternoon. After a brief drop to near-normal temperatures behind the front on Saturday, warmer weather is expected to arrive.
1225 AM CDT Fri May 30 2025 (Tonight through Friday night) Key Messages: - Isolated to scattered severe storms late tonight across the southern Edwards Plateau, Hill Country, Rio Grande Plains and portions of the I-35 corridor - Pockets of heavy rainfall could lead to isolated instances of flash flooding A disturbance aloft will kick off scattered thunderstorms in West Texas this afternoon and evening, eventually bringing a complex of thunderstorms towards our area late tonight into Friday as a cold front moves south. The lowest confidence for rain and thunderstorms remains over the coastal plains. It will be cooler in the northern half of the area Friday afternoon with highs mainly in the 80s, though the 90s remain further south.
This trough will slowly shift southeastward through the night into early Friday, taking the shower activity with it. Ahead of a cold front expected to drop south over the area Friday afternoon/evening, there appears to be another wave of isolated WAA shower activity, with a few thunderstorms, developing by mid-morning Friday and dropping south. This will quickly be followed by the convection diving south associated with the cold front during the mid-afternoon into the early evening.
Upper level ridging is starting to amplify to our west between a closed low over the Baja Peninsula and a positively tilted trough draped over the Midwest. This ridge will briefly settle atop the Panhandles this weekend, but northwest flow will be maintained for today. For this reason, we can't rule out a stray shower or storm clipping the far western Panhandles moving off the higher terrain of NM this afternoon- evening, but has less than a 15% chance of occurring.
1145 PM MDT Thu May 29 2025 - Warmer temperatures and drier conditions will persist through the weekend.
Upper level trough over James Bay dropping south and merging with the upper level wave/trough currently over the Midwest/Western Ohio Valley. Merged/highly amplified upper level trough in place along the East Coast for the weekend will support below normal temperatures. Subsequently, locations around Saginaw Bay stand the highest chance, as water temps in the mid 50s (F) may provide a modest moisture boost. Cold advection sends 850 MB temps down into the low single numbers for Saturday night, but tight pressure gradient will keep winds up and temps likely aoa 40 degrees, thus no frost concerns. Short lived warmup kicks in early week as upper level ridge (~582 DAM at 500 MB) axis tracks through.
1006 PM CDT Thu May 29 2025 Weak cold front is beginning to make some SE progress into our far NW zones this evening with some scattered convection that has been showing signs of weakening over the past hour.
141 AM CDT Fri May 30 2025 Updated at 125 AM CDT FRI MAY 30 2025 - Fog with visibilities below one mile is expected at times through shortly after sunrise, with the lowest visibilities in East Alabama. Guidance is hitting our east-central counties with the lowest visibilities, but suspect there will be fog over a larger area given the aforementioned reasons unless low clouds develop first. The long-awiated cold front is currently across northwest Arkansas, and will begin to move into our northwest counties tomorrow morning. Winds will begin to veer to the northwest ahead of the front in response to lee troughing, which may limit convergence.
259 AM CDT Fri May 30 2025 - Turning warmer today into the weekend with a return to the 80s.
The upper ridging shifts further south and weakens as broad upper troughing near the Mississippi River Valley moves eastward through the southeast U. On the surface, weak high pressure continues to ridge across south Florida. By late this evening into Saturday, an area of low pressure moves over the mid-Atlantic states. The associated cold front extends southwest through the Carolinas and GA and then into the northern gulf.
(Today through Saturday) A cold front is expected to make its way from Central Texas (where it is currently located today) into Deep South Texas tomorrow and stall, which will bring a chance of showers and thunderstorms to the area. Temperatures are expected to be cooler tomorrow than they will be today; highs today are expected to be in the mid 90s, but will drop to the lower 90s tomorrow as the cold front arrives and cloud cover across the area increases.
Considered issuing a Heat Advisory for the lower elevations of Wallowa County on Saturday, but held off due to anticipated overnight cooling and limited spatial extent. A breakdown of the upper-level ridge is expected (90%+ confidence) Saturday afternoon through Saturday night as an open-wave trough tracks overhead. Cross-Cascade surface thermal and pressure differences coupled with increasingly strong winds aloft are expected (90%+ confidence) to drive widespread breezy to very windy westerlies through the eastern Columbia River Gorge, Kittitas Valley, portions of the lower Columbia Basin, north- central Oregon, the Simcoe Highlands, and foothills of the Blue Mountains mid-afternoon Saturday into Saturday night.
Highs return to near normal in the lower 80s. This has kept temps in the lower 60s however areas south of Highway 60, from Branson to West Plains have largely remained rain free and instability has crept up there with current ML CAPE values around 250-500j/kg there. The tornado threat is very low given the weak shear however its not zero as there will be a warm front that could provide enough vorticity, this would be confined to the same areas (south of Highway 60). Low temperatures in the lower to middle 50s are likely by Friday morning. As we enter the high res model guidance range we may be able to increase these percentages for certain areas. NBM suggests temps will rise into the lower 80s for the weekend.
Through Saturday: A slow-moving trough analyzed from northern Missouri northeastward across the forecast area will drift to the southeast today as a developing compact trough just north of Lake Superior quickly tracks southward. Inverted V profiles under the high-based showers and storms will likely yield outflow- dominant storm modes with perhaps a couple organized multicell clusters capable of generating localized instances of damaging winds. The backdoor cold front will stall southwest of the forecast area on Saturday, bringing dry and seasonably cool conditions for the start of the weekend.
The north south oriented area of sh/ts is being helped along by a short wave moving through the base of an H3 trough. The sfc cold front bends around this complex then turns east over the Red River valley of TX/OK snaking through central AR then into TN. This is not a normal occurance for this time of year where an actual cold front moves through the area.
A low pressure is still making its way across the Ohio Valley this evening. Depending on just how thick the smoke layer gets and if it arrives earlier in the day, the high temperatures could be lower than what is forecast by a degree or two.
935 PM PDT Thu May 29 2025 Warmer Friday with high temperatures 10-15 degrees above normal in the valleys and 5-10 degrees above normal elsewhere.
High temperatures will be warmer but still a few degrees below normal.
- A cold front will bring numerous showers and storms across North and Central Texas early this morning.
Updated at 236 AM CDT FRI MAY 30 2025 - Fog with visibilities below one mile is expected at times through shortly after sunrise, with the lowest visibilities in East Alabama. In addition to increased low level moisture, there is also some mid/upper moisture moving in from the W around the base of the digging upper trough over the Great Lakes. This trough will swing across E Conus today and into New England tonight before being absorbed back into the main low over Quebec. By this evening, the front will have exited to our SE leaving drier and cooler air in its wake. With more sunshine expected on Saturday and no rain, temperatures will be able to warm up a couple of degrees warmer than today, but dew points should not be quite as high as today.
- Warmer today with more sunshine, and afternoon thunderstorms developing over the mountains, then spreading southeast into the Plains. not much change to the upper pattern, with high pressure over the Great Basin, and another embedded upper vort max in northwesterly flow aloft moving across Colorado. Steering flow out of the north- northwest will spread the thunderstorms off the higher terrain, and into the I-25 corridor by late afternoon.
735 AM MDT Fri May 30 2025 - Warmer today with more sunshine, and afternoon thunderstorms developing over the mountains, then spreading southeast into the Plains. not much change to the upper pattern, with high pressure over the Great Basin, and another embedded upper vort max in northwesterly flow aloft moving across Colorado. Steering flow out of the north- northwest will spread the thunderstorms off the higher terrain, and into the I-25 corridor by late afternoon.
258 AM PDT Fri May 30 2025 Several degrees warmer today for inland areas with the greatest warming for the inland valleys and inland Orange County. A weak upper level low pressure system off the Baja coast will draw some tropical moisture northward into the area for the weekend.
- Turning warmer today into the weekend with a return to the 80s.
620 AM CDT Fri May 30 2025 (Today through Saturday) A cold front is expected to make its way from Central Texas (where it is currently located today) into Deep South Texas tomorrow and stall, which will bring a chance of showers and thunderstorms to the area. Temperatures are expected to be cooler tomorrow than they will be today; highs today are expected to be in the mid 90s, but will drop to the lower 90s tomorrow as the cold front arrives and cloud cover across the area increases.
(Friday through Saturday) At the time of writing, some showers and thunderstorms are moving through portions of NE Texas into SE Arkansas along a cold front. This cold front will continue to push to the southeast through the day Friday, with the rain gradually dissipating by midday. The frontal passage, in conjunction with clear skies and light surface winds, will allow for a slightly cooler night.
High pressure will build into the region today bringing warmer and drier conditions.
Issued by National Weather Service Riverton WY 531 AM MDT Fri May 30 2025 - Warmer temperatures and drier conditions will persist through the weekend.
Northeasterly winds tonight will help low temperatures get down into the low to mid 60s for most locations. A few areas in western north Texas and far southwest Oklahoma may get into the low 90s.
414 AM EDT Tue Jul 9 2024 Low pressure merges with the remnants of tropical depression Beryl over the Mid Mississippi Valley today then tracks into Ohio Valley. A cold front will push into the Mid Atlantic region on Wednesday before becoming stationary through the end of the week. After midnight, low level convergence increases as the cold front enters the mountains from the west. Ample moisture advection from the south to southwest is progged to phase with the same upper trough that picks up the remnants of TC Beryl.
Meanwhile, upper ridging continues to hold strong over the Western CONUS. At the surface, have a weak area of high pressure from western Nebraska through Western KS with a stationary front extending from central MO into eastern OK. For the end of the work week, the Western CONUS ridge will start to slide slowly northeast and will allow warmer 850mb temps to also migrate east.
These storms are developing as the outer fringes of Tropical Storm Beryl begin to interact with a trough over the Central Plains. The highly-sheared environment combined with at least modest destabilization will allow for scattered low-topped supercells and linear features with mesovortex elements to develop early Tuesday afternoon near the OH/MS River confluence and race to the northeast. High temperatures will reach the lower to middle 80s with the highest values west of the Mississippi River where clouds will thin first.
Upper level ridging remains in place across the southeastern US helping to maintain a warm and moisture rich environment across the FA. Combined with the high moisture, heat index readings of 100-106 Tuesday, and slight higher Wednesday.
Slow-moving cold front is traversing Northern Lower Michigan late this evening. with the upper level trough axis close behind. Overnight lows will cool mainly into the lower 60s. General west to southwest flow aloft Tuesday afternoon with the lower than normal heights flattening out as a jet streak moves through N MI into Canada. Pattern Forecast: By Tuesday evening, broad troughing anticipated across the nation's midsection sandwiched between weak ridging off the East Coast and more amplified ridging/heat dome out west.
- Drier, cooler air will move into the area through Wednesday as the remnants of Beryl passes to the north.
Mainly pockets of heavy rain will continue north and NE of the low pressure center through this morning. some small chances for precip will remain as energy wraps around the back side of the low center. The upper level ridge looks to expand over the region by late in the forecast.
Dry and hot conditions remain over northern Arizona today as high pressure continues to wobble around the southwest. The high will also allow for smoke from wildfires in southern Utah to drift southward into much of northern Arizona.
A warm front stretches ENE from the center of Beryl that brought the area some strong thunderstorms through about midnight last night before dissipating. Despite dewpoints getting into the lower to mid 70s, heat index values will primarily be below 104 degrees.
(Today through Wednesday afternoon) Yesterday's cold front has pushed all the way into the Big Bend and into Mexico this morning, with east-northeasterly flow in place across the region. While the surface lift supplied from the front seen yesterday is absent today, we still find our area in between ridging across the Southwest and Southeast. Upper ridging across the Southwest nudges eastward some for Wednesday, so temperatures will tick up a degree or two across the board.
High pressure continues to be centered over southern Nevada and northeastern Arizona, allowing temperatures to stay hot across the state. The dominating ridge will gradually push eastward throughout the week, landing in a more favorable monsoon pattern by the weekend.
Tuesday will feature another low-end chance for sprinkles in the afternoon, while Wednesday may end up being a bit better chance owing to a short wave trough moving north to south and clipping the forecast area with some extra forcing. This may be sufficient to support a few storms, or even a convective complex (at the high end of the potential range of outcomes).
Drier air, otherwise, will move in behind the cold front, limiting rainfall chances to the north. Temperatures rebound back to highs in the lower to mid 90s Tuesday.
1156 PM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024 (This evening through Tuesday) Upper level water vapor satellite imagery shows a positively tilted trough stretching from Colorado's Front Range to southern Minnesota, and a high pressure system persisting over California. The trough is expected to shift eastward through the short term period. Radiational cooling due to the clear skies and light winds should yield slightly cooler than normal low temperatures. Given the moisture from this morning's rains and the relatively cooler lows, there is a potential for patchy fog around sunrise, though confidence remains low. Tuesday's highs return to near average, with temperatures 5-10 degrees warmer than this afternoon and winds remaining light.
1049 PM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024 (Tonight through Tuesday night) Key Messages: -Life threatening beach conditions linger with dangerous rip currents/coastal flooding -A Heat Advisory is in effect today for Heat Index Values 110-114 The short term period will be relatively quiet with a trough draped across the Central US and the remnants of Beryl moving across SE TX this afternoon moving quickly off to the northeast. Afternoon temperatures today and tomorrow are a bit warmer behind Beryl with clearer skies allowing for more surface heating.
A strong ridge of high pressure will continue to build over the Northern Rockies through mid week. This ridge will cause extremely warm temperatures with Wednesday being the hottest day of the week.
(Through Tuesday) We'll remain on the western side of an upper level ridge tonight, while Tropical Storm Beryl gets absorbed into an upper level trough. Tomorrow, the upper level low lifts to the northeast, which will pull a slug of moisture into the region. Highs for Tuesday are suppose to be in the low to mid 90s. The tradeoff to this upcoming wet weather is relatively "cooler" temperatures and what appears to be sub-advisory level heat indices (though still hot). High temperatures are slated to be mainly in the low 90s with lows in the mid/upper 70s.
The remnants of Beryl will be lifting northeast towards the Lower Great Lakes through Wednesday, but ensemble guidance right now favors keeping any heavier rainfall from this system to our southeast.
(Today and tonight) Our weather will stay quiet and rain free in the short term as the Southern Plains will lay well west of the upper trough axis from the system that has kept us wet and stormy over the past several days.
On Tuesday, the trough over the Plains/Mississippi River valley will continue further east, carrying the leftovers of Beryl with it. Meanwhile, a mid level ridge/high will develop over the Desert southwest.
Strong upper-level ridging will remain over the western CONUS through the short-term forecast period keeping North and Central Texas under north-northwest flow aloft.
Highs Tuesday are expected to be in the low to mid 90s with heat indices in the lower 100s and a few places could reach 105.
241 AM MDT Tue Jul 9 2024 - Hot! - Hotter! - Even Hotter! The much advertised heat ridge is beginning to shift east, and will be dominating the weather across the state through the week.
Updated to adjust precipitation chances across the higher terrain this evening. Mozley The upper-level trough will continue marching east aloft today, allowing for some isolated-scattered thunderstorms to form across our southeast mountains and parts of the San Luis Valley this afternoon. For Tuesday, temperatures will begin to warm, with high temperatures climbing into the high-80s to low-90s across the plains. A few storms could drift onto the plains later in the evening as the retreating trough axis moves further east, but at this time chances are somewhat low.
Water vapour loop showed western CONUS ridge nosing into the Rockies, which will be our main weather concern this week.
NW winds are driving dew points down over SE OK and NE TX with mid to upper 60s setting us up for a cooler morning there. Elsewhere, we will keep low to mid 70s and warmer readings along and east of I-49.
134 AM MDT Tue Jul 9 2024 Strong western CONUS ridge will dominate our weather in the short-term period and beyond. Keep this in mind if you plan to go into the high country to escape the heat. Look for highs in the lower-mid 90s most places today, then mid to upper 90s (some locations could touch 100F) Wednesday. As the ridge slowly builds eastward and flow aloft backs more westerly, we will likely start to introduce hazy skies due to lofted wildfire smoke originating from the PacNW. JKL A strong upper ridge over the region will keep daily high temperatures over 90 and mostly dry conditions through the extended.
437 AM EDT Tue Jul 9 2024 Southwest flow under high pressure will bring hot and humid conditions to the region today.
536 AM MDT Tue Jul 9 2024 - Hot! - Hotter! - Even Hotter! The much advertised heat ridge is beginning to shift east, and will be dominating the weather across the state through the week.
As for the temperatures, the highs are expected to be in the range of mid 90s to triple digits. As for the low temperatures, they are expected to be in the 70s with a few places in the low 80s.
- Cooler southeast today with a few isolated storms north.
High pressure remains centered over the Desert Southwest bringing record temperatures to that region. Most of this will only amount to cumulus on the higher terrain with perhaps a sprinkle.
In the lower-levels, ridging extending from the North Atlantic is the dominant feature. From synopsis, gentle to occasionally moderate east to southeast breezes will prevail across the Florida Keys coastal waters through the rest of the work week, as high pressure remains in place from the Atlantic across the Florida peninsula and into the Gulf of Mexico. The high will strengthen over the western Atlantic this weekend, bringing moderate easterly breezes to the Keys waters.
Dry and warmer conditions look to prevail today for most of the area as we are on the western side of the departing upper level trough. As for highs, we will start to slowly creep warmer through the next two days with highs in the upper 80s and low 90s today, followed by mostly low 90s tomorrow.
Today through Wednesday night Hot and dry is the name of the game going into midweek as high pressure dominates over the western U. Heat impacts will expand eastward today with temperatures in the lower 100s reaching Elko today and Wednesday.
- Warmer and more humid conditions this weekend. Forecast: Precip has exited with the cold front.
645 AM CDT Tue Jul 9 2024 (Today and tonight) Our weather will stay quiet and rain free in the short term as the Southern Plains will lay well west of the upper trough axis from the system that has kept us wet and stormy over the past several days.
Summer time heat continues this weekend, but it will be slightly cooler. The upper ridge continues to affect the region through the rest of the work week. A result of the strengthening of the high as it moves east has led to a northwesterly expansion of the ridge towards our area. Even with the expansion of the ridge we are still expecting winds to increase towards the end of the work week.
927 AM EDT Tue Jul 9 2024 High pressure is in place across the area with the ridge axis across south Florida and an upper low just to the east of the state expected to move to across south Florida today. Highs north in the upper 80s to lower 90s, and central and southern zones in the lower to mid 90s.