Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
414 AM EDT Sat May 17 2025 A crossing cold front will bring relatively cooler temperatures to the region this weekend. KEY MESSAGES: - A cold front will cross the area, bringing gusty winds and a cooldown. ------------------------------------------------------------------- Scattered showers will be possible today as a cold front and associated upper low currently over the northern Great Lakes cross the region over the course of the day. KEY MESSAGES: - Cooler and drier pattern returns Sunday. ---------------------------------------------------------------- With daytime gusts a bit higher in the ridges of eastern Tucker County, a wind advisory is in effect from 10am Saturday to 2am Sunday, where gusts up to 50mph are possible.
with chances for convection continuing as a warm front lifts north away from AR by Sun night. The potential for SVR Wx will be a bit more limited during this period given a bit of ridging over the state. and a cold front surges SE through the state. the forecast will become cooler and drier by mid week.
(Today through Sunday) Upper ridging over the Gulf, with troughing over Wisconsin and Baja California. Low pressure over Michigan had a cold front southwestward to Texas. That would be upper 80s to lower 90s for most of the area, and a few degrees cooler on the Mississippi coast, where the sea breeze may cap off heating before everywhere else.
1157 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025 (This evening through Sunday night) A persistence forecast package is in place for today as the region continues to see a deep layer ridge axis be the dominant feature through the weekend. There will be some weakening of the ridge tomorrow as a northern stream trough passes through the Midwest, but a continued strong capping inversion in the mid-levels will prohibit deeper updrafts from developing. Dewpoints will remain in the low to mid 70s, and highs will easily warm into the upper 80s and lower 90s with the hottest temperatures inland and away from any coastal influences.
(Today through Sunday) Mid level ridging will continue to build and strengthen over the region as the upcoming weekend progresses. At the surface, high pressure over the Florida Peninsula and western Atlantic will remain in place during this time frame as well.
408 AM EDT Sat May 17 2025 Cold front crosses today. Although a cold front will pass through later in the morning, drier conditions are expected to return to the majority of the area. That being said, an isolated shower or storm could develop over the northern fringes of the CWA as an upper trough pulls moisture back into the area this afternoon and evening. Strong flow aloft is expected to mix down to the surface during the day, with 30 to 40 mph wind gusts possible throughout the lowlands while the higher ridges of the northeast mountains could gust to around 45 mph. Daytime temperatures are expected to range from 70s to low 80s in the lowlands and mid 60s to 70s in the mountains, then temperatures lower into the mid 40s to 50s for tonight.
- Near freezing temperatures are possible in portions of northeastern North Dakota tonight and Saturday morning. Additional freezing temperatures are possible Saturday night into Sunday morning. A cut off H5 upper low is moving very slowly to the east, with scattered showers expected to continue intermittently through early this evening. Ridging begins to build into the Central Plains this weekend, with the axis being somewhat limited by short residence time ahead of another system.
- Cold Sunday night with a 70-90 percent chance of temperatures at or below freezing over northern Wisconsin.
- Rain returns for the start of the new work week with the highest chances on Tue, mostly along and south of I-90. - WEEKEND: scattered showers north, cloudy and much cooler today. Upper level trough/closed low currently churning over northern WI early this morning, serving as the main focusing mechanism for scattered showers that are sweeping eastward across the local area. The low will make steady progress east today, moving over the eastern Great Lakes by 00z this evening.
400 AM EDT Sat May 17 2025 - Much cooler this weekend with westerly wind gusts of 30 to 35 mph today. A cold front passing through early this morning ushers out the last vestiges of the summer-like weather felt over the past few days. The parent low pressure, its mid-level closed circulation now tracking directly into Lower MI, ushers in a much cooler air mass through the day. The result will be highs only reaching the lower to mid 60s - some 20 degrees lower than yesterday. The upper low slowly peels off to New England on Sunday but leaves us beneath a lingering moist cyclonic northwest flow pattern that maintains cool and mostly cloudy conditions through the day.
This will all be due to strong ridging sitting over the state.
This afternoon into early evening: A significant air mass change occurred this morning across this Missouri Ozarks as a warm front lifted back into the area that brought dew points back into to the upper 60s to low 70s and temperatures have risen into the low to mid 80s. This has caused significant instability to develop ahead of a cold front that was pushing west to east into the area. Severe storms quickly developed around midday ahead of the cold front and continue to quickly lift east- northeast into eastern sections of the CWA.
308 AM EDT Sat May 17 2025 - Much cooler with more showers today into tonight.
304 AM EDT Sat May 17 2025 - Much Cooler with scattered showers today and scattered frost possible Sunday night Temperatures will be held into the 50s today and Sunday with clouds and scattered showers as a large upper low moves through.
333 AM EDT Sat May 17 2025 Cold front crosses today. Although a cold front will pass through later in the morning, drier conditions are expected to return to the majority of the area. That being said, an isolated shower or storm could develop over the northern fringes of the CWA as an upper trough pulls moisture back into the area this afternoon and evening. Strong flow aloft is expected to mix down to the surface during the day, with 30 to 40 mph wind gusts possible throughout the lowlands while the higher ridges of the northeast mountains could gust to around 45 mph. Daytime temperatures are expected to range from 70s to low 80s in the lowlands and mid 60s to 70s in the mountains, then temperatures lower into the mid 40s to 50s for tonight.
A fairly vigorous upper trough offshore supported by a 150-kt jet will sharpen as upper level energy dives ESE into northern California this morning. This is a bit unique to have a sharpening upper trough to swing through in the middle of the night and also to have enough instability present east of the Cascades (about 300-500 J/KG) to support convection. Overall, expect a cooler than normal day with highs generally in the 60-65F range for the west side and 55-60F east of the Cascades. Shower coverage diminishes this afternoon/evening as warmer air aloft moves in, though some may linger into Sunday morning near the Cascades due to moist onshore flow.
703 AM EDT Sat May 17 2025 (Today through Sunday) Mid level ridging will continue to build and strengthen over the region as the upcoming weekend progresses. At the surface, high pressure over the Florida Peninsula and western Atlantic will remain in place during this time frame as well.
1005 AM EDT Sat May 17 2025 A cut-off low pressure system will move from the Great Lakes to New England through Sunday.
This feature and associated cold front will have little impacts other than a few light showers/drizzle and a quick shot of cooler temperatures.
542 AM EDT Sat May 17 2025 A crossing cold front will bring relatively cooler temperatures to the region this weekend. KEY MESSAGES: - A cold front will cross the area, bringing gusty winds and a cooldown. ------------------------------------------------------------------- Scattered showers will be possible today as a cold front and associated upper low currently over the northern Great Lakes cross the region over the course of the day. KEY MESSAGES: - Cooler and drier pattern returns Sunday. ---------------------------------------------------------------- With daytime gusts a bit higher in the ridges of eastern Tucker County, a wind advisory is in effect from 10am Saturday to 2am Sunday, where gusts up to 50mph are possible.
645 AM EDT Sat May 17 2025 Cold front crosses today. Although a cold front will pass through later in the morning, drier conditions are expected to return to the majority of the area. That being said, an isolated shower or storm could develop over the northern fringes of the CWA as an upper trough pulls moisture back into the area this afternoon and evening. Strong flow aloft is expected to mix down to the surface during the day, with 30 to 40 mph wind gusts possible throughout the lowlands while the higher ridges of the northeast mountains could gust to around 45 mph. Daytime temperatures are expected to range from 70s to low 80s in the lowlands and mid 60s to 70s in the mountains, then temperatures lower into the mid 40s to 50s for tonight.
Blustery conditions and cooler temperatures begin today and last through the weekend.
342 AM MDT Sat May 17 2025 KEY MESSAGES: - Wet system to bring moderate precipitation rates Saturday night into Sunday - Moderate to high confidence in accumulating snow for the higher terrain down to 5000 feet, including mountains passes - 20 to 30 percent chance for accumulating snow down to 3000 feet for Missoula valley, Mission valley and Seeley/Swan valleys Sunday morning Little has changed over the last 12 hours in terms of the upper level set up for an incoming low pressure system later tonight into Sunday. Forecast models continue to show support for a moderate to heavy precipitation event as the upper level low cuts off over north central Idaho and taps into a surge of gulf moisture. Confidence is high in moderate to heavy snowfall amounts occurring in the higher terrain down to roughly 5000 feet.
630 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025 (Today through Sunday) Upper ridging over the Gulf, with troughing over Wisconsin and Baja California. Low pressure over Michigan had a cold front southwestward to Texas. That would be upper 80s to lower 90s for most of the area, and a few degrees cooler on the Mississippi coast, where the sea breeze may cap off heating before everywhere else.
710 AM EDT Sat May 17 2025 - Much Cooler with scattered showers today and scattered frost possible Sunday night Temperatures will be held into the 50s today and Sunday with clouds and scattered showers as a large upper low moves through.
Temperatures across the island chain are already in the lower to mid 80s with dewpoints in the mid 70s. High pressure out in the central North Atlantic will continue to control our weather in the short term. Ridging over Florida will promote subsidence and work with dry air aloft to keep PoPs near nil. From synopsis, a dry pattern defined by a distant high pressure system in the central Atlantic and lack of a close high over the CONUS will lead to breezes shifting from light to moderate breezes for the next few days.
956 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025 - Freezing or near freezing temperatures are possible Saturday night into Sunday morning. Upper low continues to pull through MN and WI, with wrap around light rain and even a few snowflakes lingering across the Red River Valley.
540 AM EDT Sat May 17 2025 - Much cooler with more showers today into tonight.
650 AM EDT Sat May 17 2025 * Breezy, cooler, and less humid weather today.
640 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025 - Near freezing temperatures are possible in portions of northeastern North Dakota this morning and a frost advisory is in effect. Additional freezing or near freezing temperatures are possible Saturday night into Sunday morning. Upper low continues to pull through MN and WI, with wrap around light rain and even a few snowflakes lingering across the Red River Valley.
433 AM PDT Sat May 17 2025 Blustery conditions and cooler temperatures begin today and last through the weekend.
1243 PM CDT Sat May 17 2025 - Freezing or near freezing temperatures are possible Saturday night into Sunday morning. Upper low continues to pull through MN and WI, with wrap around light rain and even a few snowflakes lingering across the Red River Valley.
An upper level low is tracking over southeast OR this morning with strong thunderstorms between Fields OR and McDermitt NV. This low will slowly move northeast through the day with widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms today. 50 inch in the lower elevations, and 0.
1238 PM CDT Sat May 17 2025 (Today through Sunday) Upper ridging over the Gulf, with troughing over Wisconsin and Baja California. Low pressure over Michigan had a cold front southwestward to Texas. That would be upper 80s to lower 90s for most of the area, and a few degrees cooler on the Mississippi coast, where the sea breeze may cap off heating before everywhere else.
229 PM CDT Sat May 17 2025 -Frost is likely to develop tonight with a 50% chance for freezing temperatures in colder spots. Given that the bulk of guidance sets dewpoints around 30 at the lowest tonight and combined with questions on when cloud cover clears out, there is fairly low confidence in freezing conditions arising. If clouds clear out and air is a tad drier, however, freezing conditions will become more likely. A Frost Advisory has been issued for the overnight hours, but with the uncertainties above there is a 50% chance for some locations (particularly the Devils Lake Basin and northern Minnesota) to get below freezing for a few hours.
214 PM EDT Sat May 17 2025 - Dry Sun/Mon, then showers, continued cool - Dry Sun/Mon, then showers, continued cool Upper low pressure has brought an abrupt change to our weather. Gone are temperatures in the 80s, replaced by highs in the lower to mid 50s. Cooler temperatures. A strong short wave rotating around the upper low will move east later this afternoon and take the showers with it. Clouds will remain though as the long wave upper trough remains over the Great Lakes. HREF mean cloud cover prog shows the lower clouds continuing through tonight and Sunday morning before beginning to lift out Sunday afternoon.
333 PM EDT Sat May 17 2025 High pressure will build across the area for the beginning of the week. A large upper level low pressure system will move in towards the middle of the week bringing cool, unsettled conditions. Temperatures will drop into the lower to mid 50s.
(This evening through Sunday Night) Shra/tstm activity beginning to fire to our wnw in association with daytime heating dryline, and weak impulses tracking along the northern periphery of the ridge.
222 PM MDT Sat May 17 2025 KEY MESSAGES: - Wet system to bring moderate precipitation rates tonight into Sunday - Moderate to high confidence in accumulating snow for the higher terrain down to 4500 feet, including mountains passes - 20 to 30 percent chance for accumulating snow down to 3500 feet for Missoula valley, Mission valley and Seeley/Swan valleys Sunday morning All the models are still in fair alignment about a mid level circulation moving through the Northern Rockies tonight into Sunday. The higher terrain across north central Idaho up towards Glacier NP is expected to receive 4 to 10 inches of new snow above 6000 feet, while the mountain passes should receive 2 to 4 inches by Sunday afternoon.
For mid to late week, upper ridging starts to flatten as troughing moves by north of the region.
High pressure out in the central North Atlantic will continue to control our weather in the short term. Ridging over Florida will promote subsidence and work with dry air aloft to keep PoPs near nil.
1242 PM EDT Sat May 17 2025 - Much cooler this weekend with westerly wind gusts of 30 to 35 mph today. Moist and colder cyclonic flow attendant to an upper low pivoting across the great lakes will govern conditions this taf period. A cold front passing through early this morning ushers out the last vestiges of the summer-like weather felt over the past few days. The parent low pressure, its mid-level closed circulation now tracking directly into Lower MI, ushers in a much cooler air mass through the day. The result will be highs only reaching the lower to mid 60s - some 20 degrees lower than yesterday. The upper low slowly peels off to New England on Sunday but leaves us beneath a lingering moist cyclonic northwest flow pattern that maintains cool and mostly cloudy conditions through the day.
224 PM EDT Sat May 17 2025 An upper low over the Great Lakes will slide east tonight and Sunday.
Guidance shows mid to high level cloudiness returning tonight, which will likewise limit radiational cooling though it will likely be cooler than last night.
258 PM CDT Sat May 17 2025 - Temperatures dip to around freezing over central and much of northwest North Dakota late tonight into early Sunday morning, including the James River Valley.
1110 AM EDT Sat May 17 2025 * Breezy, cooler, and less humid weather today.
742 PM CDT Sat May 17 2025 Late afternoon through Sunday: The gradient between a hot subtropical ridge near the Gulf Coast and a cold upper low is lending to a volatile thermodynamic environment characterized by 3000 to 4000 j/kg MLCAPE along a boundary extending from northeast LA east southeast through central into southeast MS.
West winds will increase this evening with a cold front passage. By tomorrow, the upper low is parked over Washington, so the best dynamics for showers will be in eastern Washington and north Idaho.
Cooler temperatures will move in after the front finally pushes through late in the work week. As of 1025 PM: A low amplitude upper trough will shift east of the area tonight, with rising upper heights forecast through the remainder of the period.
639 PM CDT Sat May 17 2025 - Temperatures dip to around freezing over central and much of northwest North Dakota late tonight into early Sunday morning, including the James River Valley.
Cooler temperatures will move in after the front finally pushes through late in the work week. As of 635 PM: A low amplitude upper trough will shift east of the area tonight, with rising upper heights forecast through the remainder of the period.
Showers continue under a passing upper trough this afternoon. Late night snow showers are possible over the highest elevations of the Cascades, but accumulation at pass levels is not expected.
The deep layered ridging regime continues across the Keys this evening. Upper level ridging reaching northeastward across Florida and the Bahamas sits above robust lower to mid level ridging. Seasonably warm conditions are in place with temperatures in the lower 80s and dew points up in the mid 70s. Ridging will continue through the troposphere with the Atlantic ridge remaining across South Florida. Expect overnight lows to struggle to dip below 80 and dew points will remain in the lower to mid 70s. Atlantic ridging stretching across South Florida will result in gentle east to southeasterly breezes strengthening slightly on Keys waters through the overnight period.
Thunderstorms appear to be done for the remainder of tonight, but showers will continue as an upper trough works slowly eastward across the region. Rain showers and high elevation snow showers continue on Sunday, mainly over the higher elevations.
1003 PM EDT Sat May 17 2025 High pressure will build across the area for the beginning of the week. A large upper level low pressure system will move in towards the middle of the week bringing cool, unsettled conditions. Cooler and drier air mass remain in place, allow for overnight lows to sink into the lower 50s and perhaps some upper 40s.
626 PM CDT Sat May 17 2025 (This evening through Sunday Night) Shra/tstm activity beginning to fire to our wnw in association with daytime heating dryline, and weak impulses tracking along the northern periphery of the ridge.
High pressure surface and aloft will continue to dominate the weather across west central and southwest Florida through Sunday. Increasing high cloudiness on Sunday, but the main story will be the continued strong subsidence over the forecast area which will produce hot dry conditions with temperatures away from the coast climbing into the lower to mid 90s Sunday afternoon. For mid to late week, upper ridging starts to flatten as troughing moves by north of the region.
751 PM EDT Sat May 17 2025 - Much cooler today and Sunday with more showers today into tonight.
721 PM EDT Sat May 17 2025 High pressure will build across the area for the beginning of the week. A large upper level low pressure system will move in towards the middle of the week bringing cool, unsettled conditions. Temperatures will drop into the lower to mid 50s.
832 PM EDT Sat May 17 2025 A crossing cold front into this evening will bring showers and a few thunderstorms, as well as gusty wind today. Relatively cooler temperatures will then settle into the region. A Wind Advisory remains in effect for Eastern Tucker County through 2 AM, where gusts up to 50mph remain possible with mountain wave activity from a passing trough. Probability of 50mph gusts decreases mid-morning over the ridges with building high pressure to our west. Seasonable low temperatures in the lower and mid 50s are forecast. Northwesterly flow from the upper-level ridge moving into the area will keep high temperatures at or below normal. Gusty conditions will continue ease throughout the day tomorrow as dry conditions set in with incoming ridge.
807 PM EDT Sat May 17 2025 An upper low over the Great Lakes will slide east tonight and Sunday.
Cooler conditions expected Sunday with additional shower chances.
The combination of both trends has limited any radiational cooling and dept temperatures considerably warmer than expected.
708 PM CDT Sat May 17 2025 -Frost is likely to develop tonight with a 50% chance for freezing temperatures in colder spots. Hoping 00Z guidance will shed some clarity on chance for clearing and potential for colder temperatures below freezing. Given that the bulk of guidance sets dewpoints around 30 at the lowest tonight and combined with questions on when cloud cover clears out, there is fairly low confidence in freezing conditions arising. If clouds clear out and air is a tad drier, however, freezing conditions will become more likely. A Frost Advisory has been issued for the overnight hours, but with the uncertainties above there is a 50% chance for some locations (particularly the Devils Lake Basin and northern Minnesota) to get below freezing for a few hours.
737 PM EDT Sat May 17 2025 - Dry Sun/Mon, then showers, continued cool - Dry Sun/Mon, then showers, continued cool Upper low pressure has brought an abrupt change to our weather. Gone are temperatures in the 80s, replaced by highs in the lower to mid 50s. Cooler temperatures. A strong short wave rotating around the upper low will move east later this afternoon and take the showers with it. Clouds will remain though as the long wave upper trough remains over the Great Lakes. HREF mean cloud cover prog shows the lower clouds continuing through tonight and Sunday morning before beginning to lift out Sunday afternoon.
453 PM CDT Sat May 17 2025 Late afternoon through Sunday: The gradient between a hot subtropical ridge near the Gulf Coast and a cold upper low is lending to a volatile thermodynamic environment characterized by 3000 to 4000 j/kg MLCAPE along a boundary extending from northeast LA east southeast through central into southeast MS.
238 AM EDT Sun May 18 2025 Upper low spinning between Toronto and Ottawa Ontario will will slide east tonight and Sunday.
312 AM EDT Sun May 18 2025 - Mild and Dry Today and Monday - April-like Week Ahead: Chilly, Occasionally Wet, and Breezy - Mild and Dry Today and Monday Upper troughing slowly pulls away from the region today into Monday. For Monday, a mix of clouds and sun is forecast with similar temperatures as upper ridging briefly moves in.