Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
That will then lead to short period of diurnal heating, allowing for strong instability to build in the afternoon ahead of the advancing cold front. Storms should initiate in eastern/ southeastern NE and move into the area with the cold front and advance southeastward through the evening hours as that cold front pushes southeast through the area. Mid to Late Week: The upper-level pattern across the CONUS will evolve into a ridge over the southwestern US and a trough/ closed upper low over the Great Lakes. This region will also have strong upper-level flow, given the tight height gradient between the ridge over the Southwest and trough over the Great Lakes.
While there is some decent instability, shear will be on the low end with HRRR forecast soundings depicting around 3 kts of shear, giving storms little to work with and maintain healthy updrafts for any meaningful amount of time (with any chances diminishing by 7 PM). The main concern of the forecast period comes into focus tomorrow, as the aforementioned trough moves east towards the area dragging a cold front. The highest potential for severe storms is expected to occur at peak heating and shortly after when instability is maximized, with largely straight line hodographs pushing the main hazard towards damaging hail and wind (though a tornado can't be ruled out in far southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa).
(Today and tonight) Temperatures will be well above normal for much of West Central Texas today, as an 850 mb thermal ridge continues to build over our area. Temperatures will be a bit cooler to the east of the dry line, but moisture will be much higher, and heat indices could reach to near 108 in our southeastern counties.
334 AM EDT Tue Jun 4 2024 High pressure will extend across the area through Wednesday.
CAMs suggest the focus of isolated shower/thunderstorm development during the morning will shift northeast into west-central/northwest Lower Michigan, as a transition to diurnal surface-based mixing with southerly winds occurs, and broad upper-level ridging amplifies over the lower Great Lakes which will lead to warming midlevels and increasing convective inhibition with southeastward extent. Next, affecting west/southwest Lower Michigan late this evening through tonight, a compact 500 mb low over Missouri will move toward southern Lake Michigan tonight while weakening as it becomes incorporated into the flow ahead of the main feature, an advancing Upper Midwest trough. The highest chance of scattered thunderstorms for the whole area will be Wednesday morning through mid afternoon, as a sharp upper- level trough over the Upper Midwest approaches and a surface cold front passes through.
A cold front will move across the Southeast late in the week increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms.
Winds will turn to be west-northwesterly following the cold front. A cold front moves across the region today bringing some chances for showers/storms. Today, with the cold front some stronger winds are expected mainly west river with gusts of 30+ mph possible. Temperatures today and Wednesday will be cooler due to clouds, the cold front, and CAA. Highs will reach into the low to mid 70s today, slightly higher Wednesday, in the mid to upper 70s.
250 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024 - 2 rounds of storms and showers this afternoon into the overnight hours ahead of a passing cold front with another low threat for strong-to-severe storms. The first and second rounds appear to blend together around midnight as the cold front enters the CWA from the west. Behind the cold front, we will see a short period of dry weather as a high pressure builds over the region.
248 AM MDT Tue Jun 4 2024 - Cooler today with isolated to widely scattered showers/storms in the morning and gusty westerly winds across northwest South Dakota. Current surface analysis has cold front moving across western SD, with winds switching to the west and northwest and becoming gusty for a brief period behind it. Upper level analysis shows southwest flow across the northern Plains, ahead of trough moving across southern AB, southern SK, and MT. Upper trough moves over the northern high Plains and south central Canada today, with isolated to scattered showers passing through areas mostly near and north of I-90 through the morning hours. High temps will be similar to today, mostly 70s on the Plains and 60s over the higher Black Hills.
Currently - Surface through lower level Atlantic ridging stretches westward into the southeastern United States. A contributing factor for this may be that the mid and upper levels have transitioned to a more zonal character with prior troughing having moved on to the east. Forecast - The previously mentioned ridge will remain across the southeastern United States today into tomorrow. This steady flow should be able to hold highs in the upper 80s to near 90 with dew points in the lower to mid 70s. Guidance has been consistent with suggesting a mid latitude low swinging through the eastern United States will push the Atlantic ridge southward across the Florida Peninsula. This along with the ridge weakening will result in surface winds slackening, shifting further south, but becoming variable at times.
The Plains trough will move into the Midwest, bringing the trough axis closer to the mid state by late morning Wednesday. But, with stronger instability and shear, strong to severe storms will remain possible ahead of an approaching cold front in the afternoon and evening as well. (Wednesday Night through next Tuesday) After the front passes later on Wednesday, we are looking at cooler and drier weather.
However, the northern extent of this system looks to be much weaker than the southern, due to the higher instability and shear values that the southern portion of the MCS is moving into. Given the increase in rainfall, highs thru mid week look to trend more in the lower/mid 80s, while lows thru Wed night remain predom in the mid/upper 60s. Rain chances will begin to taper off to the S/E late Wed night, as a weak cold front draped west to east drops into the Mid South/mid TN Valley.
355 AM EDT Tue Jun 4 2024 Aside from an isolated afternoon shower or thunderstorm across the higher terrain, dry conditions are expected today.
The mid-level ridge slides a touch further east, pushing the low-level thermal ridge over the region. The result will be temperatures in the 100s for all of the lower elevations, upper 90s over the mountains, and temperatures well into the 110s in the Big Bend. As a weak disturbance rounds the ridge, isolated thunderstorms may develop with the aide of orographic ascent over these areas. This could allow for slightly cooler outflow for those lucky enough to see rain.
316 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024 - Scattered severe storms are possible along and ahead of a passing cold front this afternoon and evening today.
1259 AM EDT Tue Jun 4 2024 Aside from an isolated afternoon shower or thunderstorm across the higher terrain, dry conditions are expected today.
High temperatures on Tuesday are expected to be a few degrees warmer than today at the coast and in the High Desert; 4 to 7 degrees warmer than today in the valleys and mountains; and about the same as today in the low deserts.
205 AM EDT Tue Jun 4 2024 As high pressure moves away from the area, southerly flow will bring warmer and more humid conditions. A cold front will approach from the west and cross the region Wednesday afternoon and evening. A somewhat cooler and drier airmass will move in for the end of the week. Fairly sharp mid level ridge will extend from the Carolina coast into the Great Lakes during the period. Weak short wave energy will be riding up the ridge Tuesday afternoon ahead of a more substantial short wave that will push into the area late Tuesday night. A surface cold front and upper level trough will be moving through the Ohio Valley at some point Wednesday night. Conditions remain warm and humid on southerly flow until the cold front passes through.
Beyond the near term, nearly zonal flow aloft will continue with continued short wave troughs.
Behind this, the high-res models and latest NBM run is favoring a drier afternoon. Highs today will be in the lower 80s.
The main culprit is the ridge of high pressure northeast of the area that should be in place through Wednesday. The ridge begins to move south on Wednesday allowing winds and moisture to slightly increasing. During the second half of the week, an upper level trough approaches the region while high pressure builds south of the area.
421 AM EDT Tue Jun 4 2024 South flow over the Ohio Valley will be found ahead of a cold front that crosses late Wednesday, along with increasing potential for showers and thunderstorms.
628 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024 (Today and tonight) Temperatures will be well above normal for much of West Central Texas today, as an 850 mb thermal ridge continues to build over our area. Temperatures will be a bit cooler to the east of the dry line, but moisture will be much higher, and heat indices could reach to near 108 in our southeastern counties.
- Otherwise, dry and a little cooler than yesterday but temperatures still running above normal.
946 AM EDT Tue Jun 4 2024 High pressure remains off to the northeast leading to persistent light, easterly flow across the state.
The coolest reading is 64 in Minden and slightly drier overnight down in Lufkin and surrounding areas warmer with low to mid 70s. Then SW around the freezing level with that persistent NW flow aloft.
605 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024 (Today through Wednesday) Key Message: *Above normal temperatures producing heat advisory and excessive heat warning conditions Mid-level ridging will support above normal temperatures in the short term. Low temperatures tonight will also be a few degrees above normal and will generally range from the upper 70s to the lower 80s. Confidence is on the low side for now.
Precipitation has ended across Southeast Idaho with satellite imagery showing cloud cover shifting further northeast as high pressure begins building over the western U. High pressure ridging will support a dry and warmer pattern today through mid- to late week. High temperatures today will run 5 to 10 degrees warmer than yesterday's, right around climatological norms, and widespread overnight lows will range the 40s and 50s.
Cooler, but still seasonably warm, weather by the weekend.
By this evening, northwest flow will persist aloft as the upper ridge builds into the southwest CONUS. Thus, temperatures will quickly warm this morning with highs expected to reach the lower triple digits across the southern portions of the South and Rolling Plains. Surface winds will turn to the north northeast behind the frontal passage with low level moisture wrapping around the eastern and north sides of the low. Similar to yesterday, the biggest caveat in storms sustaining growth will be the slightly warmer air aloft. Given the highly conditional environment this afternoon, the potential that all factors play out perfectly for storms to initiate remains low. Thus, PoPs of 10 percent were maintained this afternoon to reflect the low likelihood of an isolated storm across the far southeast Texas Panhandle and northern Rolling Plains.
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: A low pressure system moving across central Saskatchewan and strong jet pushing across the northern Rockies, will result in strong west winds through Wednesday. Ensembles show ridging beginning to influence the western CONUS extending into the northern plains with warmer and drier weather conditions for the second half of the week. These winds will fluxuate slightly throughout the next 36 hours and spread eastward, so will continue the High Wind Warning in SW Philips and the Lake Wind Advisory for Fort Peck Lake.
High pressure will build over the area through the end of the work week, resulting in dry and increasingly hot conditions.
Afternoon high temperatures today will generally reach the low to mid 80s.
531 AM MDT Tue Jun 4 2024 - Breezy, dry, and a little cooler today.
At the surface a broad and expansive anticyclone is going through a bit of a reorganization period and has led to a weaker pressure gradient across the area. An Atlantic pressure ridge will extend westward across the southeastern United States over the next couple of days. Thereafter, the ridge will shift southward across Florida, resulting in slackening and, at times, variable breezes.
549 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024 - 2 rounds of storms and showers this afternoon into the overnight hours ahead of a passing cold front with another low threat for strong-to-severe storms. The first and second rounds appear to blend together around midnight as the cold front enters the CWA from the west. Behind the cold front, we will see a short period of dry weather as a high pressure builds over the region.
A slow moving cold front will work its way through a notable more humid airmass at that time. as the axis of a mid level ridge will be centered over the Lower Great Lakes. High pressure in the lower levels based off the Jersey shore will help to circulate H85 temps of 16-18C into our region. as the ridge axis of the previously mentioned mid level ridge will slowly push to our east. as a large negatively tilted trough over the Upper Great Lakes will push the first of two cold fronts through our forecast area.
1022 AM EDT Tue Jun 4 2024 High pressure will extend across the area through Wednesday.
539 AM EDT Tue Jun 4 2024 Aside from an isolated afternoon shower or thunderstorm across the higher terrain, dry conditions are expected today.
336 AM MDT Tue Jun 4 2024 - Breezy, dry, and a little cooler today.
Otherwise, high temperatures are forecast to reach the low to mid 80s this afternoon.
Hotter temperatures and mainly dry conditions are expected this week as high pressure builds over the Southwest.
Therefore, here comes a high amplitude upper level ridge that will bring the advertised heat for the rest of the week. As the upper high moves in mostly clear skies take over with only some low level clouds developing in the afternoon generally in the vicinity of area mountains. Max temperatures this afternoon rise to 5-10 degrees warmer than yesterday. Therefore, highs for the valleys and lowlands will be in the 80s, while in the mountains they will be in the 60s at the highest elevations and 70s mid-slopes.
701 AM EDT Tue Jun 4 2024 Weak high pressure will bring mainly dry conditions through Wednesday, with cooler temperatures near the coast.
710 AM EDT Tue Jun 4 2024 High pressure will extend across the area through Wednesday.
Upper level ridging will continue to build across the Northern Rockies through Wednesday, resulting in warming temperatures and drier conditions.
740 AM EDT Tue Jun 4 2024 Aside from an isolated afternoon shower or thunderstorm across the higher terrain, dry conditions are expected today.
642 AM EDT Tue Jun 4 2024 Dry weather is expected for most of the region through tonight as weak high pressure across our region drifts to the New England coast.
(Today through Wednesday) Key Message: *Above normal temperatures producing heat advisory and excessive heat warning conditions Mid-level ridging will support above normal temperatures in the short term. Low temperatures tonight will also be a few degrees above normal and will generally range from the upper 70s to the lower 80s. Confidence is on the low side for now.
639 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024 - Scattered severe storms are possible along and ahead of a passing cold front this afternoon and evening today.
510 AM MDT Tue Jun 4 2024 - Cooler today with isolated to widely scattered showers/storms in the morning and gusty westerly winds across northwest South Dakota. Current surface analysis has cold front moving across western SD, with winds switching to the west and northwest and becoming gusty for a brief period behind it. Upper level analysis shows southwest flow across the northern Plains, ahead of trough moving across southern AB, southern SK, and MT. Upper trough moves over the northern high Plains and south central Canada today, with isolated to scattered showers passing through areas mostly near and north of I-90 through the morning hours. High temps will be similar to today, mostly 70s on the Plains and 60s over the higher Black Hills.
- Dry and warmer weather through the end of the week. WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: A low pressure system moving across central Saskatchewan and a strong jet stream pushing across the northern Rockies, will sustain recent strong west winds through Wednesday. Ensembles show ridging beginning to influence the western CONUS extending into the northern plains with warmer and drier weather conditions for the second half of the week. The High Wind Warning in SW Philips and the Lake Wind Advisory for Fort Peck Lake continue.
1114 AM MDT Tue Jun 4 2024 - Cooler today with isolated to widely scattered showers/storms in the morning and gusty westerly winds across northwest South Dakota. Current surface analysis has cold front moving across western SD, with winds switching to the west and northwest and becoming gusty for a brief period behind it. Upper level analysis shows southwest flow across the northern Plains, ahead of trough moving across southern AB, southern SK, and MT. Upper trough moves over the northern high Plains and south central Canada today, with isolated to scattered showers passing through areas mostly near and north of I-90 through the morning hours. High temps will be similar to today, mostly 70s on the Plains and 60s over the higher Black Hills.
Hotter temperatures and mainly dry conditions are expected this week as high pressure builds over the Southwest. The drying and warming trend develops today as high pressure builds and strengthens over the Southwest.
1234 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024 (Rest of today through Wednesday) A long wave trough is setting up over the Central US with the trough axis over North Dakota. Lapse rates are not great and 0-6 km shear is on the low side, overall the threat for strong storms is low but still can't rule out an isolated storm or two with gusty winds and some hail. The upper level trough will push east into the Great Lakes on Wednesday pushing a cold front into our region.
* Drier weather and cooler temperatures are favored late week into the first half of this coming weekend. For the overnight period, most of the high resolution models show mainly a dry period of weather. However, with the low-level jet in place (25-30kts) we could see some isolated convection across the region. With the cold front approaching the region in the afternoon, we should see a gradual increase in convection across the area once again. Highs on the day will be in the lower 80s. Transitional period Wed night and Thu as the main sfc cold front pushes east of I-65 on Wednesday evening. Rain chances will taper off from west to east toward midnight, with a cooler and less humid air mass filtering in fairly quickly behind it.
(This afternoon through Wednesday night) Many places are well into the 90s and low 100s this afternoon and will "only" cool down into the low to mid 70s tonight. The weakness of the ridge may allow for a shower or two to develop over the higher terrain to the west, but amounts will be low overall.
Some relief is in store Wednesday as a cold front moves into the Big Country late tonight and through the rest of West Central Texas Wednesday morning. But it will still be warm to hot, with highs in the lower to mid 90s in the Big Country, and upper 90s to 101 from the Concho Valley south to I-10.
135 PM MDT Tue Jun 4 2024 - Breezy, dry, and a little cooler today.
Dew points in the low 60s are lingering a bit behind the initial boundary passage and could have some shower/isolated thunderstorm redevelopment within this ribbon before the much drier air arrives. Once that system passes, the upper flow over Iowa will be a modified northwesterly as a dual upper low over much of southern Canada in addition to upper ridging over the western CONUS. The result will be cooler temperatures and a mostly dry period.
(Rest of today through Wednesday) A long wave trough is setting up over the Central US with the trough axis over North Dakota. Lapse rates are not great and 0-6 km shear is on the low side, overall the threat for strong storms is low but still can't rule out an isolated storm or two with gusty winds and some hail. The upper level trough will push east into the Great Lakes on Wednesday pushing a cold front into our region.
- Additional thunderstorms expected tonight through early Wednesday AM along a cold front. - Northwest winds bring cooler and drier air to southern Wisconsin for the second half of this week. This, in association with the cold front, will be the cause of convection through the afternoon in MN but the remnants of this convection will try to slide through in the late evening and overnight hours. Given some decent midlevel lapse rates and enough low level moisture behind the cold front we could expect a few weak storms and showers but nothing severe would be anticipated at this time.
The limiting factor for any convection will be subtle ridging and dry air in the mid-levels helping to suppress development over the area. Temperatures during the short term period will follow a typical easterly regime, ranging from the mid-80s near the immediate east coast to the low to mid-90s over the interior and southwest Florida. Temperatures could be a few degrees warmer on Wednesday once winds shift out of the east-southeast.
The forecast remains on track this morning with the cold front already east of the James Valley and showers filling in behind it. Winds will turn to be west-northwesterly following the cold front. A cold front moves across the region today bringing some chances for showers/storms. Today, with the cold front some stronger winds are expected mainly west river with gusts of 30+ mph possible. Temperatures today and Wednesday will be cooler due to clouds, the cold front, and CAA. Highs will reach into the low to mid 70s today, slightly higher Wednesday, in the mid to upper 70s.
317 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024 - Isolated to scattered showers and storms expected this afternoon becoming more numerous Wednesday along a cold front.
149 PM EDT Tue Jun 4 2024 High pressure will extend across the area through Wednesday.
Storms are expected to initiate near a cold front / dryline triple point in west-central Oklahoma, then expand south and eastward through the evening. Low level shear will initially be low, ramping up with the low level jet around 00-02z.
327 PM EDT Tue Jun 4 2024 A humid and unstable southerly flow ahead of low pressure will bring chances for showers and thunderstorms tonight, with widespread showers and thunderstorms expected on Wednesday when a cold front is forecast to cross the area from the west.
Sporadic showers will continue to overspread northeast Arkansas and West Tennessee as this upper trough continues to churn east.
Warming is the main message this week as an upper ridge builds over the western US.
A second round of showers and storms are forecast to develop ahead of a cold front that will move across the area later tonight. A secondary cold front and an attendant upper level disturbance will move through the area during the late afternoon and evening hours.
Tomorrow, a trough stretches from the Ohio Valley to Arkansas/West Tennessee. Southwesterly winds will increase slightly tomorrow ahead of a cold front that will stay to our west through this forecast period.
1218 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024 (Today through Wednesday) Key Message: *Above normal temperatures producing heat advisory and excessive heat warning conditions Mid-level ridging will support above normal temperatures in the short term. Low temperatures tonight will also be a few degrees above normal and will generally range from the upper 70s to the lower 80s. Confidence is on the low side for now.
The heaviest rainfall is expected across north central Idaho into west central Montana, with rainfall ranging from a few hundredths to a quarter of an inch in the valleys, and quarter to slightly over an inch in the higher terrain.