Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Aloft, subtropical ridging will continue to slowly build eastward into West Texas. At the surface, high pressure centered over the Upper/Middle Mississippi and Ohio River Valleys will continue to sag southward in the wake of the early week cold front. Tonight, amid light winds and the very dry airmass in place, efficient radiational cooling will support lows dipping into the lower 50s to lower 60s.
Building high pressure will bring a return to above average temperatures later this week into this weekend.
Moisture lingers into Wednesday, so expect a similar turn of events tomorrow with daytime heating leading to a cumulus field over the higher terrain followed by showers or thunderstorms in the afternoon.
RW (This afternoon through Wednesday) At a glance: - Clear and dry - Cooldown continues North and central Georgia are officially post-frontal, with a steady stream of cooler, drier air to settle in across the Southeast thanks to persistent northwesterly flow at the mid-levels. As it pertains to the tropics, the aforementioned cold front will settle across the northern Florida peninsula, serving as a quasi- barrier between the more Fall-like weather expected for our area over the next several days and the encroaching tropical moisture ahead of Hurricane Milton.
- Cooler With Increasing Weekend Showers High pressure holds over the region keeping conditions quiet and dry through the end of the work week.
605 PM CDT Tue Oct 8 2024 Warm and dry conditions are expected to continue through the weekend as high pressure builds into the Mid-South.
708 PM EDT Tue Oct 8 2024 High pressure and a dry airmass will remain in control of the weather through the end of the week.
Off and on showers again today as an upper level trough passing through Western Washington.
(This afternoon through Wednesday) At a glance: - Clear and dry - Cooldown continues North and central Georgia are officially post-frontal, with a steady stream of cooler, drier air to settle in across the Southeast thanks to persistent northwesterly flow at the mid-levels. As it pertains to the tropics, the aforementioned cold front will settle across the northern Florida peninsula, serving as a quasi- barrier between the more Fall-like weather expected for our area over the next several days and the encroaching tropical moisture ahead of Hurricane Milton.
By the end of the weekend, we return to a normal pattern with ridging building in the western North Atlantic and easterly breezes along our Reef once more.
Strong high pressure and cool temperatures will prevail overnight under mostly clear skies. Lows tonight will mostly be in the low to mid 50s, along with light winds out of the north. /15/ Tonight: Expect those cool breezes to continue into the overnight hours tonight as post-frontal high pressure builds into the region. Otherwise expect low temps in the lower to mid 50s under these clear skies.
(Rest of tonight) A northwest flow aloft of 20-30 knots continues across the TN Valley this evening, with the region located beneath the southwestern edge of the broader circulation around an upper low centered across eastern Ontario/western Quebec.
Highs will then cool into the 60s for the end of the week, along with overnight lows in the lower to mid 30s.
717 PM CDT Tue Oct 8 2024 Tonight: Expect those cool breezes to continue into the overnight hours tonight as post-frontal high pressure builds into the region. Otherwise expect low temps in the lower to mid 50s under these clear skies.
633 PM CDT Tue Oct 8 2024 (This afternoon through Wednesday night) Deterministic and ensemble guidance show upper ridging over the western CONUS remains in place but with core of ridging expanding east into tomorrow. All of this means we can expect southerly winds today into tomorrow night, with warmer temperatures tomorrow as the core of ridging develops closer to the area. No rain is anticipated as large scale subsidence provided by the upper ridging and quiet surface pattern prevail.
Very little, if any of this is reaching the ground outside of the higher elevations. At times, brief gusty winds may occur with evaporative processes due to the high based nature of this activity, and a deeply mixed environment. That is 6 degrees warmer than any other start to an October dating back to 1937.
As the ridges stay over the region, the PWAT will continue to be low with values around 1.
1152 PM CDT Tue Oct 8 2024 (Rest of tonight) A northwest flow aloft of 20-30 knots continues across the TN Valley this evening, with the region located beneath the southwestern edge of the broader circulation around an upper low centered across eastern Ontario/western Quebec.
As a very weak are as low pressure continues to approach Arizona today, an increase in mid-level moisture and vertical motion should allow for showers to develop once again this afternoon. The greatest coverage of showers should mostly be limited to the higher terrain, but some virga may still be present elsewhere. However, the increase cloud cover may keep some areas a degree or two cooler than the last couple of days.
400 AM EDT Wed Oct 9 2024 Canadian high pressure will extend from the middle MS Valley to the southern middle Atlantic today, ahead of a moisture-starved cold front that will move south across the region tonight.
Otherwise, water vapor imagery reveals much drier air working into the region as ridging builds across the Desert Southwest. Another warm day is in store tomorrow with highs in the low to mid 90s.
314 AM EDT Wed Oct 9 2024 Cooler and drier air settles in as high pressure builds in for much of the coming week. High pressure will continue to linger over the region today.
(This evening through Wednesday) Weak surface ridging will shift into east Texas overnight, with light winds becoming south 5 to 10 mph. The light winds and clear skies will continue to allow good radiational cooling conditions tonight, particularly in the valley areas along the I-10 corridor and in the NW Hill Country, where temperatures may dip again into the lower to mid 50s. Highs in the lower 90s area expected Wednesday.
1118 PM CDT Tue Oct 8 2024 (This evening through Wednesday night) A quick synoptic analysis shows an upper level trough draped across the Great Lakes and extreme northeastern US, Hurricane Milton just north of the Yucatan and broad ridge across the remainder of the US. The CWA falls on the eastern edge of the ridge and western edge of the trough. As the trough pushed farther southeast over the last 24 hours, drove weak cold front through the local area. Dewpoints about 15 degrees lower than previous days means much cooler morning lows as well as no more muggy conditions for now.
1228 AM CDT Wed Oct 9 2024 (This afternoon through Wednesday night) Deterministic and ensemble guidance show upper ridging over the western CONUS remains in place but with core of ridging expanding east into tomorrow. All of this means we can expect southerly winds today into tomorrow night, with warmer temperatures tomorrow as the core of ridging develops closer to the area. No rain is anticipated as large scale subsidence provided by the upper ridging and quiet surface pattern prevail.
1233 AM CDT Wed Oct 9 2024 Strong high pressure and cool temperatures will prevail overnight under mostly clear skies. Lows tonight will mostly be in the low to mid 50s, along with light winds out of the north. /15/ Tonight: Expect those cool breezes to continue into the overnight hours tonight as post-frontal high pressure builds into the region. Otherwise expect low temps in the lower to mid 50s under these clear skies.
903 PM PDT Tue Oct 8 2024 Incrementally cooler each day through the weekend.
As the ridge expands eastwards, the area sees 850mb temperatures exceeding the 90th percentile of climatology (per latest Ensemble Situational Awareness Tables) of 16-18 deg C by the afternoon hours. After an uneventful overnight period with lows in the mid 40s to lower 50s, Thursday will see a slightly warmer repeat of Wednesday as a cold front approaches from the northwest.
UPDATE Deep drying and subsidence is in place with ridging over the Northern Plains, resulting in clear skies, while any flow aloft that may carry even high clouds in the region is well east or northwest of our region. Water vapor imagery currently depicts mid-level ridging building out of the intermountain west which will shift east through the next two days along with a building thermal ridge across the northern plains.
1204 AM CDT Wed Oct 9 2024 (This evening through Wednesday night) High pressure continues to dominate the Panhandles for the remainder of the work week with temperatures well above normal and keeping conditions mostly dry. So it may not even rain, but we would get those strong wind gusts that would cool us off from the 90s into the low 70s without any rain.
235 AM EDT Wed Oct 9 2024 Canadian high pressure will extend from the middle MS Valley to the southern middle Atlantic today, ahead of a moisture-starved cold front that will move south across the region tonight.
(Today through Thursday Night) High pressure rmns locked in across AR this morning, providing clear skies, light winds and cool temps. With high pressure firmly in place, dry condtions will prevail thru the short term.
Temperatures will continue to gradually trend cooler through the week but will remain above average for this time of the year.
(Today and tonight) Mostly quiet weather will dominate today and tonight as upper ridging remains situated over the southwestern CONUS.
As Hurricane Milton moves closer to the FL Peninsula today, the pressure gradient will tighten over our area as high pressure builds over the Midwest resulting in breezy conditions across the area with gusts around 15-25mph appearing possible.
203 AM EDT Wed Oct 9 2024 Canadian high pressure will extend from the middle MS Valley to the southern middle Atlantic today, ahead of a moisture-starved cold front that will move south across the region tonight.
Upper level ridging centered over the Southwestern United States will try to nose into Alabama and Mississippi, resulting in high temperatures a few degrees higher than yesterday across especially the western half of the state. With clear skies and light winds combining with lower dew points, temps should fall a bit more than shown in the consensus guidance, especially in the habitually cooler areas of northern Central Alabama. High temperatures Thursday should be similar to today, maybe a degree or two cooler in spots.
We expect afternoon highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s in valley areas and middle 70s atop the higher Cumberland Plateau areas.
However, conditions along the coast should start to improve over the duration of the short term forecast period as Hurricane Milton moves further away from the Lower Texas Coast. For the rest of the Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley, pleasant conditions will continue through the short term forecast period as a mid-level ridging will result in the mid and upper levels being dry and thus suppressing the chances of rain during the short term forecast period. As for the temperatures, the highs are expected to range in the upper 80s to lower 90s for today and tomorrow. Meanwhile, the low temperatures are expected to be mostly in the 60s. However, areas long the coast could still be in the lower 70s.
A similar day is expected for Wednesday with isolated showers and virga mainly across the higher terrain. Partly to mostly cloudy each afternoon with a gradual cooling trend as an additional low pressure system approaches the West Coast. This low will also bring increasing southwest winds each afternoon through the weekend.
High pressure will expand across Lower Michigan from the northwest during the course of the day Wednesday. Ample dry air associated with this high will support mainly clear skies. High pressure will then build into the area Wednesday and Thursday. Another frosty night can be expected Wednesday night with the clear and calm conditions associated with this high pressure. Milder overnight temperatures can be expected late this week as southwest flow ensues in the wake of this passing high pressure.
336 AM EDT Wed Oct 9 2024 Another disturbance will work into the region today as we remain under a broad trough. High pressure builds into the region for the remainder of the week.
Moisture lingers into Wednesday, so expect a similar turn of events tomorrow with daytime heating leading to a cumulus field over the higher terrain followed by showers or thunderstorms in the afternoon. A tilted upper ridge stretches from the Great Basin to the Great Lakes Thursday. Meanwhile a progressive pattern along the Polar Jet works along the northern perimeter of the ridge.
313 AM EDT Wed Oct 9 2024 - Another frosty night expected tonight - Turning cooler through the weekend with a risk for showers - Another frosty night expected tonight High pressure at the surface remains in control of the area as we remain under the influence of stronger subsidence in the upper confluence zone downstream of the upper ridge over the upper Midwest. Freezing conditions are likely NE of Grand Rapids in the normally colder locations.
1206 AM CDT Wed Oct 9 2024 (This evening through Wednesday) Subtropical ridging will continue to slowly slosh eastward over the Rocky Mountains throughout the next 24 hours. A weakening, mid-level cold front will pass overhead tomorrow, and may generate shallow virga showers as observed today. Winds will also slosh southwestward by the afternoon hours as the lee cyclone meanders over the TX PH tomorrow afternoon.
Warm and tranquil weather can be expected the rest of the week under a mean ridge of high pressure.
Cooler air moves in for the end of the week. Did adjust sky cover slightly upwards across our southern zones to account for the higher concentrations of elevated wildfire smoke that is progged to shift across the area overnight. A warm front will move eastward across the CWA overnight into Wednesday morning. Looking at warmer temps on Wednesday compared to today in the post- warm frontal air mass. Thursday morning we have a positively tilted ridge axis going from southwestern SD to northeastern SD.
This system will flatten the high-pressure ridge over the Northern Rockies, tightening the pressure gradient throughout the day and leading to widespread wind gusts of 20 to 30 mph this afternoon.
Upper level ridge expands slightly and shifts eastward over West Texas.
(Today through Thursday) An upper level ridge continues to dominate over Texas this morning. During this period the upper ridge will build a bit toward the northeast becoming stronger over Texas.
The highest waters levels should come with high tide which occurs during the night hours around 4am for most locations.
2) A cold front approaches by Thursday morning with seasonable temperatures and slight chances for showers to follow late this week. WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: An upper level ridge will remain in place today and along with dry conditions presents a setup for near record warm highs into the 80s. Winds will switch over to the northwest Thursday morning behind a cold front that will lead to a downward trend in temperatures through the weekend.
337 AM EDT Wed Oct 9 2024 High pressure and a dry airmass will remain in control of the weather through the end of the week.
114 AM EDT Wed Oct 9 2024 High pressure and a dry airmass will remain in control of the weather through the end of the week.
Temperatures will quickly fall this weekend, aided by a pair of cold fronts.
The upper level ridge over the Desert Southwest into Texas will strengthen slightly over our area today. With the warming 850 mb temperatures and strengthening upper ridge, highs today and lows tonight will be a few degrees warmer across the board. Expect highs in the low to mid 90s and lows in the low to mid 60s.
High pressure extending from the Ohio valley through the mid south will promote dry conditions through the period.
Above normal warm temperatures and dry conditions will continue today as high pressure dominates over the region. High pressure will prevail across the region throughout the week with the CWA staying in the northern fringe. Temperatures are expected to gradually warm through the week with highs in the low to mid 80s east of the Divide for the second half of the week. Overall, cooler temperatures and precipitation chances are looking very unlikely at this time. It remains dry with mostly clear skies through the TAF period as a ridge remains overhead.
Current Water Vapor and upper air analysis shows upper ridge from the southwest CONUS into the northern plains. Surface analysis shows a weak trough over the WY/SD border this afternoon. Ridge will continue to bring well above normal temperatures through mid-week, with highs Wednesday staying in the 80s. On Thursday, ridge flattens as a wave and associated cold front moves through the northern plains.
A stubborn upper level high will remain near the Arizona/New Mexico/Mexico border this weekend. An upper level ridge axis extents northward/poleward from the primary center of the high to our south. High temperatures will trend warmer each day into Thursday, with afternoon highs in the 80s for the eastern plains, and in the mid to upper 70s west of Interstate 25.
609 AM EDT Wed Oct 9 2024 Cooler and drier air settles in as high pressure builds in for much of the coming week. High pressure will continue to linger over the region today.
An upper level ridge will remain east of the area today and upper level trough will gradually move inland to the north. The upper level disturbance shifts eastward tonight and expect dry weather on Thursday as weak ridging returns to the area. Next, an upper low will approach the region from the west Thursday night; then, this system is forecast to track southeastward into northern California.
Dry weather continues across the forecast area today as high pressure to our north drives light northerly/northeasterly winds.
940 AM EDT Wed Oct 9 2024 High pressure and a dry airmass will remain in control of the weather through the end of the week.
then like- ly a bit warmer tomorrow ranging from around 90 over the Piney Woods to the lower to mid 90s heading south and west toward Matagorda Bay.
717 AM EDT Wed Oct 9 2024 - Another frosty night expected tonight - Turning cooler through the weekend with a risk for showers - Another frosty night expected tonight High pressure at the surface remains in control of the area as we remain under the influence of stronger subsidence in the upper confluence zone downstream of the upper ridge over the upper Midwest. Freezing conditions are likely NE of Grand Rapids in the normally colder locations.
636 AM EDT Wed Oct 9 2024 Another disturbance will work into the region today as we remain under a broad trough. High pressure builds into the region for the remainder of the week.
(Rest of Today) An upper level low over SE Canada was producing a WNW-ESE flow across this region. This northwesterly flow should continue over the area into the end of the week, as this low slowly heads eastward. Under sunny skies, high temperatures later this afternoon should warm into the lower 80s.
208 AM PDT Wed Oct 9 2024 Temperatures will be significantly cooler today, with the cooling trend continuing through the rest of the week.
202 AM MST Wed Oct 9 2024 High pressure will remain dominant over the region into the weekend with high temperatures at or near records. The stubborn upper level ridge that has brought record high temperatures over the past couple of weeks has weakened a little over the past couple of days. This is due to a weak upper level trough that has come ashore across southern California, but it continues to wash out as it runs into the ridge.
Temperatures rebound back into the low 70s again for the weekend. Today through Thursday Night: Trough will move into southern BC today bringing an increase in mid and high level clouds, cooler temperatures and breezy winds. As the trough moves inland this afternoon, very very dry air will move into the region starting across the Cascades this afternoon and moving east into north ID by Thursday morning. Kept with previous forecasts and have below freezing temperatures across most of the valleys of northern WA and ID. The HREF is keeping some thicker cirrus across southeast WA and the southern ID Panhandle, so they may be a bit warmer than what the current forecast is suggesting.
- A weak cold front will bring somewhat cooler, but still above normal temperatures, for the end of the week. Otherwise, ridging will build into the area again and bring another unseasonably warm day, with most lower elevations East of the Divide having at least a one out of two chance of reaching or eclipsing the 80 degree mark. It will suppress the ridge somewhat as well. The ridge then builds back into the weekend for more mainly dry weather with above normal temperatures.
916 AM EDT Wed Oct 9 2024 Another disturbance will work into the region today as we remain under a broad trough. High pressure builds into the region for the remainder of the week.
626 AM CDT Wed Oct 9 2024 (Today through Thursday) An upper level ridge continues to dominate over Texas this morning. During this period the upper ridge will build a bit toward the northeast becoming stronger over Texas.
657 AM EDT Wed Oct 9 2024 Canadian high pressure will extend from the middle MS Valley to the southern middle Atlantic today, ahead of a moisture-starved cold front that will move south across the region tonight.
915 AM EDT Wed Oct 9 2024 Cooler and drier air settles in as high pressure builds in for much of the coming week. Temperatures will be subtly warmer this afternoon as the Piedmont/Foothills will reach highs in the lower-70s. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: High pressure will continue to linger over the region today.
931 AM EDT Wed Oct 9 2024 Cooler and drier air settles in as high pressure builds in for much of the coming week. Temperatures will be subtly warmer this afternoon as the Piedmont/Foothills will reach highs in the lower-70s. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: High pressure will continue to linger over the region today.
High pressure will remain dominant over the region into the weekend with high temperatures at or near records. The stubborn upper level ridge that has brought record high temperatures over the past couple of weeks has weakened a little over the past couple of days. This is due to a weak upper level trough that has come ashore across southern California, but it continues to wash out as it runs into the ridge.
602 AM CDT Wed Oct 9 2024 (Today and tonight) Mostly quiet weather will dominate today and tonight as upper ridging remains situated over the southwestern CONUS.
A dominant ridge of high pressure will maintain unseasonably warm and dry conditions through the remainder of the week.
621 AM EDT Wed Oct 9 2024 High pressure and a dry airmass will remain in control of the weather through the end of the week.
639 AM CDT Wed Oct 9 2024 (Today through Thursday Night) High pressure rmns locked in across AR this morning, providing clear skies, light winds and cool temps. With high pressure firmly in place, dry condtions will prevail thru the short term.
354 PM CDT Wed Oct 9 2024 - Above average high temperatures continue today and Thursday (mid 70s to upper 80s), before a cold front will bring closer to seasonal average temperatures this weekend (mid 50s to mid 60s).
Cooler air moves in for the end of the week. A warm front will be moving through central and eastern SD today keeping high temperatures this afternoon in the mid to lower 80s and Thursday around the mid-80s. With the warmer temperatures on Thursday, the relative humidity values will be decreasing Thursday, with areas west of the Missouri River seeing values below 20% and east of the river below 30%.