Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Latest surface analysis shows a weakening surface trof over our eastern zones, with a trailing cold front steadily progressing southward through the region. Given no cumulus development so far this afternoon, any convective initiation may be difficult to attain until 850 mb frontogenesis arrives around or after 00z with the secondary boundary behind the weakening surface trof. Late tomorrow through the next several days, zonal flow aloft and weak midlevel ridging will give way to increasingly southwesterly flow. More widespread convection will become increasingly probable later in the afternoon/evening as a weak wave approaches along the eastern periphery of the trof nosing into the region.
1217 PM CDT Thu Aug 14 2025 - Hot and humid conditions will arrive Friday and continue through the weekend with highs in the low to mid 90s and heat index values in the 100-105 range. A upper level ridge of high pressure over the southwestern CONUS this morning will begin to slide eastward into the western Plains today. Friday the upper level ridge axis will move directly over the local area and stronger WAA will prevail allowing highs to rise into the low to mid 90s. These temperatures combined with dewpoints in the low to mid 70s will yield heat index values of 100-105.
Looking at clear skies and slightly cooler temperatures today. Moisture wrapping around the departing upper high will keep a slight chance of thunderstorms over s-central Idaho through the evening.
Heat indices rise into the low triple digits west of the Cumberland Plateau. On Friday, the pattern will be transitioning from the active few days we've had this week to a upper high-dominated pattern. The high will start to gain strength on Friday but there will still be a low chance of some isolated to scattered storms.
High temperatures will generally be in the low to mid 90s through Friday, increasing to the mid to upper 90s this weekend.
Deeper moisture and a positive influence from the passing trough will warrant at least 20-30% PoPs generally along/east of I-35 and south of I-20 this afternoon. High pressure aloft will become a bit more dominant by Friday, bumping temperatures up a couple of degrees and constraining any rain chances to our far southeast counties.
Previous discussion: The main threat/concern today will be localized flooding as we remain in a very moisture rich airmass and forcing is enhanced a positively tilted upper trough tracks east over the area today and tonight. Overnight lows will be in the lower 70s and widespread dense fog will be possible once again.
- Meteorological Overview: The Northern Rockies and MT remain beneath a moderate westerly flow aloft in between troughing moving east across central Canada and upper level ridging centered over the Southern US Plains. Lingering instability across far SW MT, along with the stalled frontal boundary and some trailing jet energy south of the Canadian trough will focus some isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development through early this evening across mainly areas near the ID border. Mainly dry and seasonably warm conditions are expected across the entire area on Friday as upper level ridging progresses east across SW Canada while the larger scale ridge remains centered over the S- central US.
1120 AM EDT Thu Aug 14 2025 Widely scattered thunderstorms are possible today with a cold frontal passage but most locations will likely remain dry.
1128 AM CDT Thu Aug 14 2025 - Low daily chances of showers and thunderstorms mainly confined to the higher terrain across far eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas during the afternoon hours. We are still looking at a couple of isolated showers this afternoon in the high terrain but dry elsewhere with hot conditions areawide. Weak upper trough axis will continue to shift east of the region today as upper level ridging expands back across the Southern Plains. This will result in hotter temps and lower overall coverage of afternoon convection, except for an isolated shower or storm over the high terrain of NW AR and SE OK.
131 PM EDT Thu Aug 14 2025 -High pressure continues quiet and dry weather today and tomorrow with some brief periods of haze.
215 PM EDT Thu Aug 14 2025 High pressure remains centered aloft over the region this afternoon while the Atlantic ridge axis extends over the southern Florida peninsula.
120 PM EDT Thu Aug 14 2025 - High pressure brings near normal temperatures and less humid conditions to close out the work week.
Today: Broad troughing has developed over the region with mostly quiet conditions across the forecast area. Temperatures are much cooler than this time yesterday thanks to cooler air behind a cold front passage yesterday.
The main threat/concern today will be localized flooding as we remain in a very moisture rich airmass and forcing is enhanced a positively tilted upper trough tracks east over the area today and tonight. Overnight lows will be in the lower 70s and widespread dense fog will be possible once again.
As upper-level troughing weakens, ridging will continue to build in through the end of the week before intensifying across the Four State Region. Long range guidance suggests more of the same with slightly drier air (dew points in the low-to-mid 70s) allowing for temperature maximums potentially in the upper 90s.
731 PM EDT Thu Aug 14 2025 High pressure moves over the region for the next couple days, bringing a short stretch of dry weather.
Deep layered ridging remains dominant across our area with the surface through lower level ridge across Florida, and the mid to upper level ridge centered off the Carolina Coast. Ridging will continue to rule the area overnight. Expect lows in the lower 80s and dew points remaining in the mid 70s. Weak Atlantic ridging will stretch across the Florida Peninsula overnight.
624 PM EDT Thu Aug 14 2025 The latest high res models are still showing highs getting up into the lower 90s across the east coast metro areas and mid 90s over the interior areas. This will lead to heat indices getting up into the lower 100s over the east coast metro areas to lower to mid 100s over the interior/west coast metro areas. Temperatures today will remain in the low 90s across the East Coast, but would reach the mid 90s across the southwest and interior early in the afternoon. Heat indices will reach the low 100s and will approach advisory criteria, but HREF probabilities for values greater than 104 deg F (for Miami-Dade and Broward counties), and values greater than 107 deg F (elsewhere across the CWA)remain below 30%.
712 PM EDT Thu Aug 14 2025 High pressure will prevail across the region through Friday.
811 PM EDT Thu Aug 14 2025 Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms through early evening with a cold frontal passage.
730 PM EDT Thu Aug 14 2025 Behind a departing cold front, cooler and less humid air will move into the region for tonight. High pressure will allow for dry and comfortable weather on Friday.
Warm weather will continue to rapidly decline as gusty northwest winds help pull in cooler marine air Friday. High pressure has now fully broken down with a deep wave trough dipping across the Pacific Northwest beginning to effect the area. Gusty northwest winds have built ahead of the trough with the strongest gusts along near coastal ridges and south into Lake and Mendocino COunties. The highest gusts have reached just shy of 30 mph this afternoon. The troughs influence will only strengthen Friday afternoon with midlevel clouds beginning to move over the area and highs pulling back further below 90 for the interior. The highest uncertainty in the forecast remains with the potential rainfall this weekend. There is high confidence that a plume of moisture reminiscent of an atmospheric river will accompany the deep trough (precipitable water 1 to 1.
Some slight strengthening of the upper ridge aloft tonight as it slides westward into the Gulf tonight will boost temperatures well into the mid 90s once again tomorrow (Friday).
806 PM EDT Thu Aug 14 2025 High pressure will prevail across the region through Friday.
/Issued 234 PM MDT Thu Aug 14 2025/ - Meteorological Overview: The Northern Rockies and MT remain beneath a moderate westerly flow aloft in between troughing moving east across central Canada and upper level ridging centered over the Southern US Plains. Lingering instability across far SW MT, along with the stalled frontal boundary and some trailing jet energy south of the Canadian trough will focus some isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development through early this evening across mainly areas near the ID border. Mainly dry and seasonably warm conditions are expected across the entire area on Friday as upper level ridging progresses east across SW Canada while the larger scale ridge remains centered over the S- central US.
This is due to zonal flow that will continue to dry warm, moist air around high pressure that is situated over the central US.
1215 AM MDT Fri Aug 15 2025 - Isolated to widely scattered PM showers and thunderstorms will return for today through the weekend with slightly cooler temperatures this weekend. The HRRR is more aligned with the HREF which aids in the higher confidence for the more lackluster outcome. Between the hi-res models shear looks to be between 18-24kts with a few hundred joules of CAPE as the upper level ridge seems to suppress most activity. Another week of hot and mostly dry weather expected for the region as an upper-level ridge remains largely parked overhead.
(Today through Saturday) Mid-level ridging will start to gradually weaken and drift northwestward today, but its influence will remain felt across the Florida peninsula through the short term. Nevertheless, conditions this afternoon will remain warm, with highs in the low-mid 90s across the entire CWA. A subtle tropical wave will move across the Florida Straits on Saturday, skirting the weakening ridge, and could inject some moisture back over the area while also providing support for more scattered to numerous showers and storms across southwest Florida.
227 AM EDT Fri Aug 15 2025 High pressure with warm temperatures through the weekend.
Southwest flow aloft will keep the area generally warm and dry, with a slight cooling trend thanks to an incoming upper level low pressure system over the PacNW. The upper level trough extending from the low over British Columbia will begin to move into southeast Oregon late on Saturday, bringing a cold frontal passage.
(Today and tonight) An upper level ridge centered currently over the southern plains will drift east into southern Missouri/northern Arkansas by this evening. While the center of this ridge is well northeast of our area, we will remain under the influence of the high pressure aloft through tonight. Fortunately, we are not under the center of the ridge, so while temperatures will be above normal, they would likely be warmer if we were under the center of this ridge.
237 AM EDT Fri Aug 15 2025 Dry weather with warming temperatures are expected into the start of the weekend as high pressure shifts east of the region.
A cooling trend is expected through the weekend under the influence of a low pressure system in the Gulf of Alaska.
(This evening through Friday) An upper level high, currently centered over the Texas Panhandle, will gradually shift east-northeast toward the Kansas/Missouri border by late Friday afternoon.
Initially, the low levels are very dry and warm, and with deep layer mixing DCAPE has grown to 1700-1800 J/kg. It will still be quite warm and dry in the low levels (highs mostly in the mid 90s), so storms will still be high based.
217 AM CDT Fri Aug 15 2025 Our area continues to be under the influence of a subtropical ridge, which will begin to build and propagate towards the area today.
Ridging looks to remain overhead today leading to light winds aloft. As we go throughout the weekend ridging will remain with moisture aloft slowly increasing.
Turning hotter this weekend as high pressure builds surface and aloft. A high pressure system will be firmly over the area today and tonight. The weekend is anticipated to feature mostly dry weather and warming temperatures as a strengthening ridge over the heart of the country begins its multi-day reign over the region.
Turning hotter this weekend as high pressure builds surface and aloft. A high pressure system will be firmly over the area today and tonight.
Temperatures will warm each day with highs in the low to mid 90 range. Overnight lows Friday night will be in the lower 70s with "feels like" values in the mid 70s.
207 AM MDT Fri Aug 15 2025 - Daily chances for thunderstorms through the weekend with isolated strong to severe thunderstorms 07z surface analysis had several boundaries snaking through the CWA early this morning with lee trough from south-central MT into eastern CO, weak cool front from southeastern ND to east-central WY, and a couple of outflow boundaries from evening convection. Water vapour loop had upper ridge over the southern plains and southwest flow aloft with plenty of disturbances upstream into the southern Rockies.
Warm weather will continue to rapidly decline as gusty northwest winds help pull in cooler marine air Friday. High pressure continues with a deep wave trough dipping across the Pacific Northwest, making its effects on the area. Gusty northwest winds continue Friday with the strongest gusts along near coastal ridges as well as interior western facing ridges. The troughs influence will strengthen Friday afternoon with midlevel clouds beginning to move over the area and highs pulling back further below 90 for the interior. The highest uncertainty in the forecast remains with the potential rainfall this weekend. There is high confidence that a plume of moisture reminiscent of an atmospheric river will accompany the deep trough (precipitable water 1 to 1.
232 AM EDT Fri Aug 15 2025 High pressure will move eastward to the east coast today and Saturday.
205 AM EDT Fri Aug 15 2025 A cooler and drier airmass will be in place today as high pressure builds in from Canada.
406 AM EDT Fri Aug 15 2025 - Warmer and dry today with highs in the upper 80s.
(Today through Saturday night) High pressure remains in place across the central US to the Midwest during the short term forecast period. H850 temperatures are expected to be a few degrees cooler than yesterday for this afternoon and even a few more degrees cooler on Saturday. The probabilities for locations to hit 100 degrees on Saturday decreases across the region as the H500 center of high pressure continues to slide off to the east. A few isolated showers or storms may try to make the trek from the higher terrain of New Mexico to west Texas on Saturday evening, but chances for that panning out are quite low at this time.
/NEW/ /Today and Tonight/ A warm and humid night is unfolding across North and Central Texas as southerly flow persists beneath the building ridge aloft. The upper level ridge will become more influential over the region today, resulting in another hot and somewhat humid day with highs in the upper 90s to near 100 degrees. By Saturday, the ridge axis is expected to shift east toward the Mississippi Valley, opening the door for a modest uptick in rain chances across Central and East Texas, especially during peak heating.
Heat indices rise into the low triple digits west of the Cumberland Plateau through the weekend. Going into the weekend, expect much of the same, but with less rain chances as high pressure builds over the region.
850 PM PDT Thu Aug 14 2025 Updated Aviation discussion A robust upper-level trough paired with a moisture-laden Pacific front is set to bring an unseasonably strong round of rainfall, breezy southerly winds, and cooler-than-average temperatures across western Washington and northwest Oregon from tonight through Saturday morning.
Dewpoints range from the 40s in the eastern Panhandle to the lower 70s in north central Nebraska. Additional thunderstorms may move into western Nebraska from the high terrain late this evening, leading to a threat for damaging wind gusts across the Sandhills. Exactly how far east this threat expands is low confidence, as storms should encounter warmer temperatures aloft. By Friday evening, yet another round of convection will be possible off the high terrain. Upper ridging will continue to slowly migrate eastwards into the weekend, with southwest flow developing aloft in its wake.
346 AM MDT Fri Aug 15 2025 - Monsoon moisture will increase shower and storm coverage heading into this weekend, mainly over and near the higher terrain. The high pressure previously located over our area will continue moving east today, as a broad upper trough begins to deepen over the western states. Today, this southerly flow and increased moisture content will allow for more numerous showers and thunderstorms over the higher terrain. Temperatures will be similar to yesterday, if a few degrees cooler, with 80s over the high valleys and 90s to low- 100s over the plains.
520 AM MDT Fri Aug 15 2025 - Daily chances for thunderstorms through the weekend with isolated strong to severe thunderstorms 07z surface analysis had several boundaries snaking through the CWA early this morning with lee trough from south-central MT into eastern CO, weak cool front from southeastern ND to east-central WY, and a couple of outflow boundaries from evening convection. Water vapour loop had upper ridge over the southern plains and southwest flow aloft with plenty of disturbances upstream into the southern Rockies.
616 AM EDT Fri Aug 15 2025 Dry weather with warming temperatures are expected into the start of the weekend as high pressure shifts east of the region.
723 AM EDT Fri Aug 15 2025 (Today through Saturday) Mid-level ridging will start to gradually weaken and drift northwestward today, but its influence will remain felt across the Florida peninsula through the short term. Nevertheless, conditions this afternoon will remain warm, with highs in the low-mid 90s across the entire CWA. A subtle tropical wave will move across the Florida Straits on Saturday, skirting the weakening ridge, and could inject some moisture back over the area while also providing support for more scattered to numerous showers and storms across southwest Florida.
An upper level ridge will be centered over southeastern Kansas this afternoon. A strong thermal ridge will be in place from the Southern into the Central High Plains. Highs today will be about 5 degrees warmer than yesterday reaching from 93 to 100 degrees, with the hottest temperatures in southwest Nebraska. On Saturday, the upper ridge will move slightly eastward over central Missouri, with the hottest temperatures over central and eastern Nebraska.
This fog should quickly dissipate after sunrise and ample sunshine should again help temperatures to reach the lower 90s by the afternoon.
721 AM EDT Fri Aug 15 2025 High pressure will move eastward to the east coast today and Saturday.
657 AM EDT Fri Aug 15 2025 - Warmer and dry today with highs in the upper 80s.
625 AM CDT Fri Aug 15 2025 Our area continues to be under the influence of a subtropical ridge, which will begin to build and propagate towards the area today.
- A subtropical ridge will build across the Gulf toward the end of the week, limiting rain chances and allowing high temps to settle in the mid to upper 90s each day.
A cold front will slowly move south into the northwest part of the area today. The upper trough will deepen tonight into Saturday morning which will allow the front to move south.
/Issued 210 AM CDT Fri Aug 15 2025/ /Today and Tonight/ A warm and humid night is unfolding across North and Central Texas as southerly flow persists beneath the building ridge aloft. The upper level ridge will become more influential over the region today, resulting in another hot and somewhat humid day with highs in the upper 90s to near 100 degrees. By Saturday, the ridge axis is expected to shift east toward the Mississippi Valley, opening the door for a modest uptick in rain chances across Central and East Texas, especially during peak heating.
636 AM EDT Fri Aug 15 2025 High pressure with warm temperatures through the weekend.
Heat indices will reach into the low to mid 90s across portions of northwest Wisconsin this afternoon.
Heat indices rise into the low triple digits west of the Cumberland Plateau through the weekend. As the heat builds from the high pressure system, expect even less coverage with storms Saturday. Looking at our temperatures for today and tomorrow, our area will see highs mostly in the low to mid 90s (the plateau being an exception with temperatures in the high 80s). With dewpoints up to 75 degrees expected, our feels-like temperatures will climb into the high 90s and low 100s west of the plateau. Temperatures will likely be a degree or two warmer Saturday.
154 PM EDT Fri Aug 15 2025 High pressure will move eastward to the east coast today and Saturday.
These storms will then build toward the west and southwest late this afternoon into this evening as deeper moisture in the lower deserts fuels additional storm development.
120 PM EDT Fri Aug 15 2025 Mesoanalysis depicts the hallmarks of ridging throughout the atmospheric column with warm 500mb temperatures and unidirectional light flow from surface to 300mb. (Today through Saturday) Mid-level ridging will start to gradually weaken and drift northwestward today, but its influence will remain felt across the Florida peninsula through the short term. Nevertheless, conditions this afternoon will remain warm, with highs in the low-mid 90s across the entire CWA. A subtle tropical wave will move across the Florida Straits on Saturday, skirting the weakening ridge, and could inject some moisture back over the area while also providing support for more scattered to numerous showers and storms across southwest Florida.
Cloud cover expected overnight into Saturday morning associated with the passing of a cold front. Today: Broad troughing has developed over the region with mostly quiet conditions across the forecast area. Temperatures are much cooler than this time yesterday thanks to cooler air behind a cold front passage yesterday.
1156 AM EDT Fri Aug 15 2025 Mesoanalysis depicts the hallmarks of ridging throughout the atmospheric column with warm 500mb temperatures and unidirectional light flow from surface to 300mb. (Today through Saturday) Mid-level ridging will start to gradually weaken and drift northwestward today, but its influence will remain felt across the Florida peninsula through the short term. Nevertheless, conditions this afternoon will remain warm, with highs in the low-mid 90s across the entire CWA. A subtle tropical wave will move across the Florida Straits on Saturday, skirting the weakening ridge, and could inject some moisture back over the area while also providing support for more scattered to numerous showers and storms across southwest Florida.
/NEW/ /Through Saturday/ An upper level ridge centered to our north will allow hot summer weather to continue across the region today. /NEW/ /Saturday Night Onward/ The center of the upper level ridge will shift slightly east during the second half of the weekend, with hot and rain-free weather expected for most locations.
Winds are beginning to increase from the south as the center of the lower pressure is beginning to shift slightly north and west. If the low center succeeds in shifting west of the area, our storm chances for today will remain minimal. With winds around 10-15 mph from the nearby low keeping the lower atmosphere mixed, low temperatures should drop only into the 60s and 70s. Saturday, the overall pattern doesn't change much with the upper ridge still over the area. A surface convergence boundary or two should also develop with the low over the area, allowing some showers and storms to fire up with the bit of moisture recovery from the prior night. Saturday night could have showers and storms linger into the night with the low remaining over or near the area.