Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
(Tonight through Friday night) An upper level trough will continue to move through the Southern Plains during the duration of the short term forecast period. This trough is expected to bring instability that could foster the development of showers and thunderstorms. As such, the high temperatures for the short term forecast period are expected to be in the range of upper 90s to the lower triple digits. The low temperatures are expected to be mostly in the 70s with some places reaching into the lower 80s.
134 PM EDT Thu Jun 12 2025 A cold front will move south through the area today and stall across the Upper Ohio Valley.
(Rest of Today and Tonight) As an area of low pressure in the Central Plains continues to meander closer to the CWFA, clouds will continue streaming overhead and filling in through the day. The other area is further west and closer to the low, as an area of convection moves SSW to NNE across Eastern AR and West TN. Temperatures approaching 90F with dewpoints in the lower 70s will lead to heat index values in the lower 90s, making for a sticky afternoon on tap. Use caution if/when outdoors today as it will be a bit more difficult for your body to properly cool off with the higher humidity expected.
149 PM EDT Thu Jun 12 2025 A weak cold front will pass south across the region this afternoon, with clouds and a few sprinkles giving way to increasing sunshine. The front will stall just south of the area tonight through the weekend, with a series of weak low pressure systems moving along the frontal boundary.
Updated at 157 PM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025 - Low thunderstorm chances (10-20%) persist in the higher terrain of West Texas and southeastern New Mexico through Friday. (This afternoon through Friday night) Northwesterly flow aloft continues as we lie on the backside of an upper-level trough with ridging building out west. A few disturbances rolling within this pattern along with upsloping southeasterly surface winds will aid in the formation of isolated (10-20%) showers and storms Friday, primarily in the vicinity of the higher terrain and portions of the Permian Basin.
From synopsis, high pressure centered just east of Bermuda will continue to remain place over the next few days.
Stronger isolated shower/thunderstorm development is still expected over the higher elevations across the Magic Valley and the West-Central ID mountains this afternoon from 20z until the early evening hours (around Fri 02z).
The highest precipitation totals will be south of the Missouri River. Tomorrow (Friday), confidence is increasing for the chance of strong to near severe thunderstorms forming off the higher elevations of central Montana and moving eastward along and south of MT-Highway 200 during the later afternoon and evening hours.
(Rest of today and tonight) Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms have been most prevalent across eastern portions of the area so far today as the slow-moving upper low continues to drift north and eastward across eastern Oklahoma.
- Rain showers along with scattered thunderstorm chances continue through Friday with upper low lifting through the region.
Summer weather is definitely here! Weak flow surrounding an upper low in Missouri and central Illinois is evident on satellite and radar, drifting ever so slowly northward today. Tonight's lows will fall to the lower 60s north to mid 60s central and south, or more or less where the current dew point is this afternoon. Friday, the weak upper low looks to be the main focus for storms, which will bring the highest coverage of storms (30-40%) to the southeast, with isolated (20%) to the west and north. Highs in the lower 80s will be widespread in the region, with a bit more low level cloud cover.
(This evening through Friday) Water vapor imagery this afternoon shows the upper level trough and associated low over portions of the Southern Plains, while the upper level ridge remains positioned over the Desert Southwest. Through Friday, the upper level ridge continue to inch closer to the region providing increased thickness values and heights across the area which should lead to much warmer temperatures to close out the end of the work week. As for the rest of today into tonight, there remains a slight chance for thunderstorms for areas near the NM/TX state line as upslope flow induces convection across the higher terrain in eastern New Mexico. Although subsidence looks to remain locked in place and there looks to be little synoptic scale forcing, a few models continue to depict disturbances riding down the western side of the ridge across the region.
Temperatures underneath the anvil of storms moving south will be much cooler, in the upper 70s to lower 80s for highs today. Temperatures will be warmer with highs in the lower to middle 90s for most outside of the Rio Grande Plains where highs will top out in the 100-105 range Friday.
120 PM EDT Thu Jun 12 2025 A weak cold front will pass south across the region this afternoon, with clouds and a few sprinkles giving way to increasing sunshine. The front will stall just south of the area tonight through the weekend, with a series of weak low pressure systems moving along the frontal boundary.
The low level jet will increase tonight promoting additional moisture transport to feed into the heavy rain setup across central Minnesota.
The daytime cumulus field continues to build among temperatures in the upper 80s to near 90 and dewpoints in the low 70s.
1243 PM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025 (Rest of Today and Tonight) As an area of low pressure in the Central Plains continues to meander closer to the CWFA, clouds will continue streaming overhead and filling in through the day. The other area is further west and closer to the low, as an area of convection moves SSW to NNE across Eastern AR and West TN. Temperatures approaching 90F with dewpoints in the lower 70s will lead to heat index values in the lower 90s, making for a sticky afternoon on tap. Use caution if/when outdoors today as it will be a bit more difficult for your body to properly cool off with the higher humidity expected.
The airmass over the higher terrain and nearby plains is little more moist and unstable compared to yesterday with mid 30s to mid 40s dew points and MLCAPE up of 300- 800 J/kg. This will lead to fewer and weaker showers and thunderstorms across the higher terrain and nearby plains.
An upper closed low, part of a weak upper trough, drops south and is continuing to slide northeast into the Ozarks. Ahead of the low, south surface winds carry moisture north through the Mississippi and Ohio River Valleys. Lows are expected to drop into the low 70s to upper 60s. Chances will increase as the upper low inches towards the Lower Ohio Valley. Precipitation is expected to come in waves as they swing around the low, and with diurnal warming, afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms could see higher rainfall rates as precipitable water values reach slightly above 2", leading to heavy showers. Highs are expected to reach into the low to mid 80s.
High pressure will dominate through the forecast period, bringing seasonably warm temperatures and dry conditions. A strong ridge continues to build across the Southwest through the weekend, bringing a period of mostly clear skies and warm temperatures.
333 PM EDT Thu Jun 12 2025 High pressure will build to the north tomorrow, bringing cool and dry weather. Showers will enter the region tomorrow night, but they should get suppressed to the south for most of the weekend as the high gradually builds a bit south. Drier air has infiltrated the region behind a cold front and dew points are down into the 40s and 50s.
Upper low/trough is currently over eastern Oklahoma and slowly wobbling off to the north and east. The position of the low and an upper high parked over the western Caribbean is keeping a continuously flow of moisture over the region. Several impulses moving through the trough will produce waves of precipitation much like what was seen across the state today.
pdf High pressure will be centered to the east northeast of the region through Tonight.
This shifting eastward means the upper level ridge builds in for the weekend, and conditions return to well above normal by Sun, temperature-wise. The breakdown of this upper level ridge starts to develop Mon, instead of Tue. Even Tue and Wed are not definitive on the breakdown of the upper level ridge with only 52 percent of the solutions showing any neutral or negative 500mb height anomalies.
147 PM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025 - Slightly warmer and more humid conditions coming Friday and through the weekend.
1242 PM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025 (Today through Friday) Upper trough over central Texas early this morning, with ridging to the east off the Florida coast, and to the west from Baja California to Colorado. Upper trough will progress somewhat eastward over the next 36 hours, extending from Missouri to western Louisiana by tomorrow evening. The overall heavy rainfall threat is marginal at best, but with the high precipitable water values, any storm could be a rather efficient rain producer, at least briefly.
Spiral bands on the northside of the trough center could swing far enough north to graze parts of northeast IA/southwest WI.
A weak area of low pressure, an open wave, will slowly sit/spin on its approach, drift, and eventual passage across the FA.
724 PM EDT Thu Jun 12 2025 A frontal boundary will stall just south of the area tonight through the weekend, with a series of weak low pressure systems rippling east along this feature.
A dry airmass has moved into eastern Utah and is making eastward progress across western Colorado this afternoon with high pressure moving in overhead.
503 PM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025 Updated at 502 PM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025 - Low thunderstorm chances (10-20%) persist in the higher terrain of West Texas and southeastern New Mexico through Friday. (This afternoon through Friday night) Northwesterly flow aloft continues as we lie on the backside of an upper-level trough with ridging building out west. A few disturbances rolling within this pattern along with upsloping southeasterly surface winds will aid in the formation of isolated (10-20%) showers and storms Friday, primarily in the vicinity of the higher terrain and portions of the Permian Basin.
An upper low over the eastern Central Plains meanders north on the northwest side of a stronger upper high centered off the Florida Atlantic coast through Friday before opening and starting to move east over Mid Mississippi River Valley. The upper high flattens a bit in the process. A weak impulse is swinging northeast along the southeast side of the upper low. Low temperatures in the low to mid 70s expected along the I-10 corridor and north, mid 70s to near 80 south to the coast.
The aforementioned cold front slips southward along the MD Friday morning and becomes wavy/quasi stationary into Father's Day weekend.
630 PM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025 (Tonight through Friday night) An upper level trough will continue to move through the Southern Plains during the duration of the short term forecast period. This trough is expected to bring instability that could foster the development of showers and thunderstorms. As such, the high temperatures for the short term forecast period are expected to be in the range of upper 90s to the lower triple digits. The low temperatures are expected to be mostly in the 70s with some places reaching into the lower 80s.
Warm and muggy conditions exist to the south of weak sfc cold front located between US6 and I80 near KOYM/KAVP line at 18Z. Early afternoon sounding profiles/ACARS ahead of the sfc cold front also showed a capping inversion with CINH between 900-700mb. Increasing mid and high clouds overnight with low temps ranging from the low 50s in the northern tier to mid 60s along the MD line. The aforementioned cold front slips southward along the MD Friday morning and becomes wavy/quasi stationary into Father's Day weekend.
Most island communities have remained dry, with temperatures in the lower to mid 80s at this late evening hour. The major conundrum for tonight's forecast rests on whether this dry line boundary can positively interact with the outflow moving northward into the Straits towards the Lower and Middle Keys. From synopsis, strong high pressure centered just east of Bermuda will remain in place for the next few days.
Flash Flood Guidance is on the higher end, but some spots over central WI have seen nearly 0.
1031 PM EDT Thu Jun 12 2025 High pressure will build to the north tomorrow, bringing cool and dry weather. Showers will enter the region tomorrow night, but they should get suppressed to the south for most of the weekend as the high gradually builds a bit south. Previous discussion below: Drier air has infiltrated the region behind a cold front and dew points are down into the 40s and 50s.
634 PM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025 - Slightly warmer and more humid conditions coming Friday and through the weekend.
KEY MESSAGES: - Mainly dry overnight --------------------------------------------------------------- A surface cold front was analyzed from just south of DUJ, to BTP, to north of PHD.
Tomorrow, expecting warmer temperatures and slightly better instability going into the evening hours.
111 AM EDT Fri Jun 13 2025 High pressure will build to the north tomorrow, bringing cool and dry weather. Showers will enter the region tomorrow night, but they should get suppressed to the south for most of the weekend as the high gradually builds a bit south.
The upper low is over eastern Oklahoma and much of the area remains soaked in muggy air all the way up to 19kft where an inversion and speed shift has warmer temps aloft. So thunder may be sparse, but showers could again become widespread during the overnight as the low level jet takes a stab a feeding convective development. So the Watch is no longer needed areawide, but we may still need an advisory or few before this trough lifts away this time tomorrow. /24/ (06Z TAFS) MVFR cigs have developed across portions of NE TX/SE OK/adjacent SW AR, which will be the favored area for isolated to widely scattered -SHRA development overnight as the primary upper trough axis continues to lift NE out of the area.
311 AM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025 - Cloudy and humid day today with chances for rain, especially along and south of I-80 as an upper level low lumbers into the area. An upper level low south of the area was slowly moving north and east into the area this morning. Looking at cloud cover, this will likely keep temperatures cooler across the area. The higher Tds rapidly move east of the area tonight as easterly flow north of the upper low tries to usher in drier and cooler air overnight. Ridging builds west of the area at the start of the period, as NW flow affects our area. This ridge flattens into the weekend as return flow starts to bring warmer more moist air into the area through the weekend.
The highest rainfall total in this FA so far is at the Brampton NDAWN (Sargent County), with 1.
313 AM EDT Fri Jun 13 2025 - Cooler and a bit breezy today with a narrow band of showers passing through the area, most likely along and north of M-32.
HREF shows 20-50% chance of visibility dropping below 1/2 mile mainly near the higher terrain/hilltops about the area.
Otherwise, expect a very mild night with lows bottoming out in the lower 70s in most locations. An area of low pressure will continue to meander across the Deep South on Friday. Added forcing from the trough and differential heating boundaries that develop will help to generate more widespread convection later on Friday.
First, guidance is showing drier air in the lower part of the atmosphere advecting in across the higher terrain, and I expect we will see much less convection over the mtns tomorrow, especially the interior mtns. Additionally, it will be a tad warmer across all of the region tomorrow, especially the mtns, as they will see less cloud cover. As mentioned, it is going to start getting hot across the region and mid 80s will be possible in the larger valleys with mid 90s over the lower Ark rvr valley over the plains and mid 80s to around 90s on the divides (Palmer and Raton).
This is very diurnally driven but there is some upper level dynamic weak suppport from an upper low to the north trailing a braod trough axis through west/central LA and east TX. The rain chances will be higher than normal for this time of year as this general troughing remains.
The upper level low currently in eastern parts of Kansas and Oklahoma is still projected to become more of an open wave as it lifts into Illinois on Saturday. A lot of the rain activity in our area is expected to develop after midnight tonight, as the low moves into Missouri. As the low drifts through on Saturday, a dry period should start off the day, before more showers and storms develop. The low will slow a bit before the upper wave begins to pull away later on Saturday.
In the southerly flow rounding the west end of the Atlantic subtropical ridge, this slug of moisture will spread northward across our area on Friday, Friday night, and Saturday, before departing on Saturday evening. Large-scale lift could be slightly enhanced as the upper trough over Texas slowly lifts northeast across the Mid-South and Mid-Mississippi Valley regions.
239 AM MDT Fri Jun 13 2025 - High pressure builds in bringing hot, dry, and windy conditions to the area for the weekend. Dry air will continue to move in today as high pressure sets up to our south.
315 AM EDT Fri Jun 13 2025 - Cooler and a bit breezy today with a narrow band of showers passing through the area, mainly along and north of M-32.
(Rest of today and tonight) Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms have been most prevalent across eastern portions of the area so far today as the slow-moving upper low continues to drift north and eastward across eastern Oklahoma. Ware (Friday through Saturday night) The upper low will track further from the area on Friday, though remain close enough for the chance of a few showers and storms on the backside of the circulation across central into eastern Oklahoma. We may also see a few storms across northwest/western Oklahoma Friday evening/overnight as northwest flow on the periphery of upper ridging to our west directs high plains convection south and eastward.
KEY MESSAGES: - Mainly dry overnight --------------------------------------------------------------- A surface cold front was analyzed from just south of DUJ, to BTP, to north of PHD. The boundary will lift north as a warm front and leave our area in the open warm, moist sector.
An approaching weak trough will bring a decent marine push into the region tonight, so expect some stratus to return to coastal areas and filter into portions of the Umpqua Basin by early Friday morning.
250 AM EDT Fri Jun 13 2025 A frontal boundary will remain stalled just to our south through the weekend, with a series of weak low pressure systems rippling east along this feature.
(Today through Saturday Night) Scattered SHRA continues across the Natural State early this Fri morning as an upper low centered over NW AR/SW MO/NE OK slowly drifts NE. This upper low will continue to slowly drift NE into SRN MO into this afternoon/evening. the better and more widespread convection potential has shifted further north and east as the upper low lifts NE. the upper low will weaken into a more open wave.
Upper low/trough is currently over eastern Oklahoma and slowly wobbling off to the north and east. The position of the low and an upper high parked over the western Caribbean is keeping a continuously flow of moisture over the region. Several impulses moving through the trough will produce waves of precipitation much like what was seen across the state today. The upper low/trough combo traverses the AR/MO border but only makes it to the Mississippi River by Saturday morning.
1241 AM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025 - Slightly warmer and more humid conditions coming Friday and through the weekend.
This boundary will again stall out in response to dry ENE flow from a Canadian high pressure system which will oppose moisture advection ahead of the upstream wave. Lingering rain chances will be possible through late tomorrow morning until high pressure drops south into the Great Lakes, dissolving mid-level convergence.
With increasing moisture bringing an increase in cloud cover and afternoon convection, high temperatures will begin trending slightly downward, with highs in the mid to upper 80s today but in the lower to mid 80s Saturday.
Temperatures will be in the mid 90s with heat index values in the low 100s.
A weak trough will be in place over the area through the end of the week and will continue to provide a very good chance of rain and storms through Saturday.
Water vapor imagery shows a slow moving upper trough now centered off to our northeast with North Texas on the back side of this system resulting in drier mid level air spreading into the region. Afternoon highs will top out in the lower 90s today and creep upward a degree or two by Saturday. /NEW/ /Saturday Night Onward/ Mid-level ridging will attempt to build into the region this weekend, putting us beneath north flow aloft.
Weak ridging will continue to hold out through this mid-late afternoon, providing the daytime hours with dry and warm conditions. This is likely due to a center of high pressure to the north in Canada will strengthen through the night tonight into early Saturday morning, which will help limit the northward extent that showers and storms could occur.
Also of note on water vapor is a low lifting in from the lower- Mississippi Valley. This low gradually lifts north atop a Southeast US ridge. At least scattered showers and thunderstorms are anticipated by the afternoon with ample moisture and high pressure now displaced over western Quebec. This low lingers in the area through Saturday night. Some guidance is keying in on heavy rain from the deformation zone of this low on Saturday afternoon.
We start Friday morning with an upper level ridge moving into the region from the west that will strengthen going into Saturday with high pressure centered to our south.
By late this evening into overnight hours, a decaying mesoscale convective complex (MCS) is forecast to approach western Oklahoma and adjacent parts of western north Texas from the High Plains.
328 AM EDT Fri Jun 13 2025 A frontal boundary will remain stalled just to our south through the weekend, with a series of weak low pressure systems rippling east along this feature.
416 AM EDT Fri Jun 13 2025 A frontal boundary will remain stalled just to our south right through the weekend, with a series of weak low pressure systems rippling east along this feature.
An upper level trough has moved into the Central Plains, and the trough axis has moved east of our area resulting in northwesterly flow over TX. Northwesterly flow will continue today as an upper ridge pushes into the region from the west. The upper ridge will suppress any convection over the west. Temperatures will be warmer with highs in the lower to middle 90s for most areas outside of the Rio Grande Plains where highs will top out in the 100-105 range. With the warmer day today, lows Saturday morning will be warmer than today and back to near normal. The upper trough will move farther away from TX Saturday, and the ridge will build a bit more eastward.
The pattern is expected to remain pretty stagnant with a ridge to the west over northern Mexico and a ridge to the east over the Atlantic that will continue pumping in tropical moisture.
The highest precipitation totals over the next two days will be south of the Missouri River.
A slow moving low pressure system is making it's way into the Ohio Valley, bringing showers and storms throughout the short term period. The column has been moistening throughout the night, working to erode the dry layer at the lower levels. High temperatures will be seasonable with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s while tonight will be warmer than normal, dropping only to the upper 60s to near 70 thanks to the saturated atmosphere.