Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
An upper level ridge will begin to build in behind the departing short wave on Monday and prevail over the forecast area on Tuesday. The low level southerly flow will continue from high pressure ridging in from the east. The southerly flow will bring low level moisture and humid conditions, however the ridging aloft should limit any significant shower or thunderstorm activity.
126 AM EDT Mon Jun 2 2025 Dry high pressure builds across our region through mid week with temperatures near normal or a little above normal. Subsidence is expected to cap off deep convection and keep PoPs near zero over most areas; can't absolutely rule out a shower developing over the Blue Ridge Escarpment SW of Asheville, but PoP remains less than 10% there. Highs near or slightly warmer than today's values.
An advancing western CONUS trough and sfc cold front will be the focus for convection moving into the northwest forecast area Tuesday evening with current SPC and WPC Marginal Risk for severe convection and excessive rainfall, respectively.
In the upper levels, a deep trough axis is stretched out from eastern Canada through the Mid-Atlantic states, while a developing short wave over the Mississippi Delta is rounding the base of the trough and will reach the eastern Gulf by this evening.
Afternoon water vapor imagery shows northwesterly flow over the CWA, with upper-level troughing over the eastern CONUS and a ridge building over the Intermountain west. Most locations in the CWA will still see highs in the upper 70s to low/mid 80s, with the relatively cooler temperatures being in Illinois behind the backdoor cold front. The upper-level ridge will quickly build into the Midwest tomorrow, with mid-level ridging proceeding it. With the ridge shifting eastward, steering flow will begin to push the wild fire smoke further eastward, but not locally noticeably until Monday night. The general timing of this front among guidance has quickened, with rain chances associated with the low-level jet ahead of the front ramping up across portions of central and northeastern Missouri already Tuesday morning.
An upper level low will begin to impinge on the area late this evening.
124 AM CDT Mon Jun 2 2025 (This evening through Monday) A deep trough over the northeast will slowly move to the east through the short term, with high pressure building over the southeastern US. Winds will slowly transition from out of the west today to the southeast by Monday afternoon, with a return of warmer air to the state. High temperatures today will be in the mid 80s, a couple of degrees below normal for this time of year, with highs tomorrow several degrees warmer, closer to normal values.
The latest NBM inits has removed the low pops that were in the forecast for late tonight and will leave the forecast dry overnight. By afternoon, upper trough will be working out of the southern Rockies into the Plains. Convection is expected to develop across the High Plains of eastern Colorado southward into eastern New Mexico Monday afternoon. Storms will likely continue into the day Tuesday as upper trough remains to our west with surface front moving into northwest Oklahoma in the morning with a moisture plume centered on the I44 corridor. By this time the upper trough will eject east across the area and more robust convection is expected to develop along and east of the surface front.
302 AM EDT Mon Jun 2 2025 Dry high pressure builds across our region through mid week with temperatures near normal or a little above normal. This looks to be overdone as heights rise with a building ridge. As of 220 AM EDT Monday: Upper ridge axis sets up shop over the eastern-third of the CONUS Tuesday and remain in place without much propagation through the forecast period.
Much cooler Tuesday behind the cold front (Highs in the 60s).
A slow moving cold front approaches late in week with a return to more active weather at the end of the week and the weekend. Upper ridge axis will shift east across the area on Tuesday, with high temperatures rebounding into the mid to upper 80s across the lowlands. A relatively dry air mass in place, will allow for a decent diurnal temperature swing Tuesday, with morning lows generally in the lower 50s.
(Today and tonight) Upper level troughing is still in place over the region today but, will shift eastward by tonight.
227 AM MDT Mon Jun 2 2025 - Upper trough/cold front brings additional chances for thunderstorms today, some of which may be active near the NE border - Behind the cold front, gusty northerly winds will continue/redevelop today - Unsettled weather continues the rest of the week 08z surface analysis had initial cold front from northeast ND to KPHP to southeast WY. Main concern this morning revolves around upper trough. Today/tonight, upper trough moves into the northern Plains sending the initial cold front southeast of the CWA by 21z and secondary cold front into the CWA this afternoon with 2-4mb/3hr pressure rises behind it. With initial cold front southeast of CWA this afternoon, there will be a limited opportunity for active TSRA over south- central SD late this afternoon per 1KJ/kg mean MUCAPE.
329 AM EDT Mon Jun 2 2025 High pressure gradually shifts offshore through midweek.
Upper-level ridging will spread eastward into the middle of the country today. Models show a persistent southern stream jet over the southwestern US, on the northern periphery of broad ridge over Mexico.
Northwest flow continues over the next several days keeping temperatures cooler than normal with breezy northwest winds during the afternoon. Temperatures will be cooler than today and end up right around normal for the date.
336 AM EDT Mon Jun 2 2025 Broad area of high pressure keeps surface conditions dry through the middle of the week. Overnight lows will be noticeably milder in the lower to middle 50s -- nearly 10 degrees higher compared to the previous night. Daytime highs on Tuesday continue to trend warmer underneath the amplified H5 ridge. Ridging at the surface and aloft centered along the south Atlantic coast will continue to exert its influence across the region to start the period.
At the surface, ridging remains present across the Deep South. Surface ridging will slowly weaken and nudge EWD through Tue. In the upper levels, a large upper low present over ERN Canada will push EWD today and off the Atlantic Coast with ridging building behind it from the Great Lakes to LA. The upper ridge shifts in response on Tue toward the Atlantic Coast. We will continue to be rain free through the short term as ridging continues. Our airmass will continue to moderate with temperatures warmer each day.
A trough currently over the region will move east and out of the region tonight.
(Tonight through Tuesday night) Key Message: - Moderate to Major Risk (level 2-3 of 4) of heat-related impacts today and Tuesday PWATs today will drop as high pressure ridging continues to build over the region.
210 AM EDT Mon Jun 2 2025 High pressure will remain influential over the region through Tuesday.
- Warm today but cooler with more chances for showers and storms over the late week periods. Modest southerly winds returned overnight ahead of lee troughing with multiple upper waves just upstream. A slightly warmer day is expected with gusty south winds in the 30-35 MPH range this afternoon. A southern branch wave makes its way east-northeast from the southern Rockies into the lower Missouri Valley today into Tuesday evening while a northern branch wave ushers a cold front southeast across Kansas during this time.
- After one last warmer than normal day of temperatures in the 80s to near 90F degrees (5 to 10 degrees above normal) on Monday, temperatures will cool down into the 60s and 70s (near to as much as 10 degrees below normal) for much of the rest of the week. The combination of low level (frontal) forcing and mid/upper level lift from the approaching upper level longwave trof will aide in the development of showers and thunderstorms both along and behind Monday's cold frontal passage. The flow pattern aloft still looks similar to yesterdays prog's, showcasing predominantly upper level longwave troughiness/bagginess across the middle of NOAM with upper level ridging setting the edges along both the west and east CONUS coasts.
307 AM CDT Mon Jun 2 2025 - Much cooler and breezy today, with showers and a few thunderstorms likely this morning through the early evening.
1143 PM EDT Sun Jun 1 2025 Low pressure will continue north through Quebec tonight through Monday.
- Much cooler conditions are expected today, with temperatures then slowly warming through the week. WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Upper trough sliding into the northern plains will linger throughout the week. Showers in the southwest flow on the leading edge of the trough will continue this morning before gradually diminishing through the afternoon. By late in the week, the main part of the trough will move east, leaving weak upper flow over the region.
High pressure returns Monday and will remain nearby all week with gradually warming temperatures. Key Message(s): - Warm and dry with seasonable temperatures Upper trough axis is moving through the Mid-Atlantic this morning and will shift offshore later today. Ridging is forecast to be established across the Carolinas by Tuesday, sitting atop a weak cutoff low over the Gulf.
For the rest of today into tonight, mostly tranquil conditions are expected as a mid to upper level ridge moves across the region. High temperatures today will be in the upper 80s to lower 90s and the lows tonight will be generally in the lower to mid 70s inland.
(This evening through Monday Night) Showers and thunderstorms are developing/moving into portions of the Brazos Valley and Piney Woods area this afternoon from a passing shortave trough aloft. SRH is broadly low, though short range models anticipate it could rise above 200m2s2 in the lowest 3km, mainly over the northern bounds of our CWA.
(Monday through Tuesday) Upper-level ridge to strengthen across the region during the short-term period allowing for mainly dry conditions areawide. Subsidence associated with the ridge to bring slightly warmer high temperatures in the upper 80s to lower 90s both today and Tuesday. At the surface, high pressure centered across the Appalachians into the ArkLaTex will maintain light southeast winds across most locations today.
Cooler weather with highs near normal will occur through much of the week.
- Meteorological Overview: Today there is an upper-level trough over North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana. Due to a surface cold front that pushed south from Canada yesterday evening cold air from Canada is moving south. Overnight tonight into Tuesday morning lower-elevation temperatures will approach freezing due to clear skies combined with the cold air.
These clouds are remnants of showers that dissipated before midnight, and are coinciding with a weak cold front. Model guidance continues depicting the cold front moving across the forecast area today.
1214 AM CDT Mon Jun 2 2025 (Tonight through Monday night) Key Message: - Minor to moderate (level 1/2 of 4) risk of heat-related impacts Monday, areas of major (level 3 of 4) over Brush Country Low-level southeasterly flow will promote near to above normal moisture while mid to upper level ridging remains over South Texas through Monday.
109 AM EDT Mon Jun 2 2025 (Through Monday) The upper level trough will shift eastward this period taking some the Canadian smoke overhead with it. Lows will drop into the mid to upper 60s with highs Monday in the lower 90s.
Otherwise, a low-level ridge will remain across the southeast states, keeping the area rain-free late tonight through Monday night. /22 Tuesday starts off with an upper ridge centered over the Carolinas, which noses westward into our area.
- Much cooler air will arrive Tuesday, with high chances (60-70%) for rain in the morning in places like Scott City, Dighton and Hays.
Otherwise, the upper level ridging continued to move east into the Central and Northern Plains today and will continue to do so tonight though the main thermal ridge will remain west of Iowa into Monday. Low pressure troughing at the surface and an upper level short wave will approach the region on Monday. This will lead to an increased pressure gradient and a transition to west/southwest flow aloft as the upper ridge passes to the east.
Winds subside tonight, but remain gusty at ridge level, so some bumpiness is possible on area approaches/departures.
This will be the highest chance of rain through Tue.
A mid-/upper-level ridge will build across the eastern portion of the CONUS with height rises and increasing pressure.
1025 AM EDT Mon Jun 2 2025 Broad area of high pressure keeps surface conditions dry through the middle of the week. Also continue to lean on the assessment that forecast high temperatures today will be a degree or two lower than model blended solution with highs in the mid to upper 70s, slightly warmer in the west. Overnight lows will be noticeably milder in the lower to middle 50s -- nearly 10 degrees higher compared to the previous night. Daytime highs on Tuesday continue to trend warmer underneath the amplified H5 ridge. Ridging at the surface and aloft centered along the south Atlantic coast will continue to exert its influence across the region to start the period.
522 AM MDT Mon Jun 2 2025 - Dry today and much cooler with highs in the 60s and 70s.
645 AM EDT Mon Jun 2 2025 High pressure will slowly drift from the Ohio Valley to off the Carolina coast during the first half of the week.
645 AM EDT Mon Jun 2 2025 Dry high pressure builds across our region through mid week with temperatures near normal or a little above normal. This looks to be overdone as heights rise with a building ridge. As of 220 AM EDT Monday: Upper ridge axis sets up shop over the eastern-third of the CONUS Tuesday and remain in place without much propagation through the forecast period.
Cooler temperatures move back into the area later today into Tuesday as a cold front traverses the region.
618 AM CDT Mon Jun 2 2025 (Tonight through Tuesday night) Key Message: - Moderate to Major Risk (level 2-3 of 4) of heat-related impacts today and Tuesday PWATs today will drop as high pressure ridging continues to build over the region.
628 AM EDT Mon Jun 2 2025 (Today and tonight) Upper level troughing is still in place over the region today but, will shift eastward by tonight.
Little surface impacts are expected today or tonight, but surface-based smoke is expected to return to the northwest part of the forecast area as a cold front arrives Tuesday into Tuesday night. Marginal Risk of Severe Storms and Excessive Rainfall Tuesday into Tuesday Night: A cold front will bring widespread showers and embedded storms Tuesday into Tuesday night.
337 AM MDT Mon Jun 2 2025 - Dry today and much cooler with highs in the 60s and 70s.
Near surface smoke continues to work southward into the area from the Red River Valley eastward, which could become more dense along the cold front. Cooler temperatures move back into the area later today into Tuesday as a cold front traverses the region.
516 AM MDT Mon Jun 2 2025 - Upper trough/cold front brings additional chances for thunderstorms today, some of which may be active near the NE border - Behind the cold front, gusty northerly winds will continue/redevelop today - Unsettled weather continues the rest of the week 08z surface analysis had initial cold front from northeast ND to KPHP to southeast WY. Main concern this morning revolves around upper trough. Today/tonight, upper trough moves into the northern Plains sending the initial cold front southeast of the CWA by 21z and secondary cold front into the CWA this afternoon with 2-4mb/3hr pressure rises behind it. With initial cold front southeast of CWA this afternoon, there will be a limited opportunity for active TSRA over south- central SD late this afternoon per 1KJ/kg mean MUCAPE.
Cold front currently resides just south of the KY-80 corridor in our far southern counties early this afternoon, and this front will continue to track slowly south into Tennessee later this afternoon into the evening. The period will begin with upper level ridging from the southeast CONUS to southeast Ontario, including the southern/central Appalachians and the Ohio Valley. At the surface, high pressure will be centered in the vicinity of VA/NC, while a cold front associated with the western trough stretches from the TX panhandle to Lake Superior. The overall effect of this will be to flatten and displace the eastern ridge further to the east, while at the same time weakening the trough. It will also allow the cold front to make slow progress southeastward.
Early morning surface analysis had a center of high pressure to our northeast.
Then upper ridging will build by the end of the week thereby bringing warmer temperatures into the 70s and 80s, 10 to 15 degrees above average for early June. The lower valleys of north-central Idaho will warm back into the 90s by the weekend.
/05/ (Monday through Tuesday) Upper-level ridge to strengthen across the region during the short-term period allowing for mainly dry conditions areawide. Subsidence associated with the ridge to bring slightly warmer high temperatures in the upper 80s to lower 90s both today and Tuesday. At the surface, high pressure centered across the Appalachians into the ArkLaTex will maintain light southeast winds across most locations today.
627 AM EDT Mon Jun 2 2025 Broad area of high pressure keeps surface conditions dry through the middle of the week. Overnight lows will be noticeably milder in the lower to middle 50s -- nearly 10 degrees higher compared to the previous night. Daytime highs on Tuesday continue to trend warmer underneath the amplified H5 ridge. Ridging at the surface and aloft centered along the south Atlantic coast will continue to exert its influence across the region to start the period.
/Issued 232 AM MDT Mon Jun 2 2025/ - Meteorological Overview: Today there is an upper-level trough over North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana. Due to a surface cold front that pushed south from Canada yesterday evening cold air from Canada is moving south. Overnight tonight into Tuesday morning lower-elevation temperatures will approach freezing due to clear skies combined with the cold air.
625 AM CDT Mon Jun 2 2025 (Monday through Tuesday) Upper-level ridge to strengthen across the region during the short-term period allowing for mainly dry conditions areawide. Subsidence associated with the ridge to bring slightly warmer high temperatures in the upper 80s to lower 90s both today and Tuesday. At the surface, high pressure centered across the Appalachians into the ArkLaTex will maintain light southeast winds across most locations today.
633 AM CDT Mon Jun 2 2025 - Much cooler and breezy today, with showers and a few thunderstorms likely this morning through the early evening.
500 AM MDT Mon Jun 2 2025 - A passing weather disturbance and relatively strong cold front for early June will move across the forecast area on Monday, producing widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms Monday afternoon and night.
628 AM EDT Mon Jun 2 2025 High pressure gradually shifts offshore through midweek.
- Warming trend continues, with highs in the lower 90s Monday afternoon. Low pressure in the High Plains is forecast to move east and reach MN/WI this afternoon. Once the aforementioned low pressure system arrives, showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop as early 2 PM across western Minnesota and progress eastward. Temperatures will be noticeably cooler over the next several days ranging comfortably in the 70s. Showers and thunderstorms will develop along a cold front across western MN this afternoon and build east this evening.
- Warming trend continues, with highs in the lower 90s Monday afternoon. Low pressure in the High Plains is forecast to move east and reach MN/WI this afternoon. Once the aforementioned low pressure system arrives, showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop as early 2 PM across western Minnesota and progress eastward. Temperatures will be noticeably cooler over the next several days ranging comfortably in the 70s. Showers and thunderstorms will develop along a cold front across western MN Monday afternoon and build east Monday evening.
814 AM EDT Mon Jun 2 2025 In the upper levels, a deep trough axis is stretched out from eastern Canada through the Mid-Atlantic states, while a developing short wave over the Mississippi Delta is rounding the base of the trough and will reach the eastern Gulf by this evening.
An upper ridge settled over the Pacific Ocean is the main influence on area conditions, bringing continuing stable weather.
Water vapor imagery this morning shows the upper low traversing down the coast of CA. In terms of today's forecast, the low is expected to slide down the coast while a closed low moves into the desert southwest.
The area slowly dries out and temperatures begin to climb as a ridge builds later this week.
500 AM MDT Mon Jun 2 2025 - Much cooler today behind a cold front. A cold front moving through this morning and afternoon from the north will keep temperatures much cooler than yesterday. Highs east of the Continental Divide are 20 to 30 degrees cooler than yesterday, sitting mostly in the 60s. West of the Divide, highs are 10 to 20 degrees cooler, in the mid-60s to mid- 70s. With cooler temperatures today, high elevation snowmelt should slow. With the front fully through, highs Tuesday are a few degrees cooler than Monday.
High pressure returns Monday and will remain nearby all week with gradually warming temperatures. Key Message(s): - Calm high pressure in place with lingering wildfire smoke aloft. Following a weak front earlier this morning, high pressure will steadily build into the region through Tuesday morning. This haze has kept temps a few degrees cooler than guidance so we should only climb into the mid 80's today.
1151 AM MDT Mon Jun 2 2025 - A passing weather disturbance and relatively strong cold front for early June will move across the forecast area on Monday, producing widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms Monday afternoon and night.
Issued by National Weather Service Columbia SC 1112 AM EDT Mon Jun 2 2025 Dry high pressure builds across our region through mid week with temperatures near normal or a little above normal. As of 220 AM EDT Monday: Upper ridge axis sets up shop over the eastern-third of the CONUS Tuesday and remain in place without much propagation through the forecast period.
148 PM MDT Mon Jun 2 2025 - Dry today and much cooler with highs in the 60s and 70s.
Expect daytime highs generally in the low to mid 90s with overnight lows generally in the mid to upper 60s.
- Could see a brief return of Canadian wildfire smoke behind today's cold frontal passage. A quick moving mid level wave/MCV moving along highway 14 is speeding up the low level front a bit this afternoon. Rain will gradually come to an end from west to east on Tuesday morning, leading to a cooler and marginally breezy day.
Warm conditions continue, albeit a few degrees cooler than the previous few days. High pressure out in the eastern Pacific continues to push against a low pressure system ejecting off shore to the south of Northwest California. The highest gusts will linger over higher elevations and particularly at the King Range and the Klamath Mountains of Del Norte County. With the high pressure system moving over the area, interior regions could have periods in the afternoon with gusty winds and low min RHs (15% to 25%). Though the gradient will ease some as the low drifts south, strong northerlies will continue through much of this week.
Surface analysis indicate high pressure over the Great Lakes & extending southward. Early morning surface analysis had a center of high pressure to our northeast.