Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
630 PM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025 - Sub-freezing temperatures possible across the western half of the state late tonight into early Saturday morning.
- Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to return today as moisture pools ahead of a cold front that will push through the region early Sunday.
1220 AM CDT Sat Sep 6 2025 Updated at 1216 AM CDT Sat Sep 6 2025 - Rain and thunderstorms comes to an end early Saturday, giving way to cooler temperatures this weekend. (Tonight through Sunday Night) A strong upper level low is set up over southern Ontario dropping a cold front south into Middle TN. As the trough digs early Saturday morning we will see the front stall out over the region with periods of showers and thunderstorms ahead of it. Highs on Saturday will be much cooler only making it into the low to mid 70s. Quiet and pleasant weather can be expected for the second half of the weekend as high pressure builds in from the Plains.
- It is uncertain exactly how much rain Deep South Texas and the Lower Rio Grande Valley will receive, but the Weather Prediction Center has Deep South Texas in a marginal (level 1 of 4) risk for excessive rainfall tomorrow. Heat indices could get just over 110 degrees in some areas throughout Deep South Texas, sparking Moderate (level 2 of 4) to Major (level 3 of 4) Heat Risk concerns, particularly in the Lower Rio Grande Valley and the Western Ranchlands. In addition, there is a cold front that is expected to stall somewhere in Central Texas, but there isn't agreement as to exactly how far south it will get. The closer the cold front makes it to Deep South Texas, the higher our precipitation chances will be for the region.
1228 AM CDT Sat Sep 6 2025 (Tonight through Sunday) Storms remain across Tennessee at this hour near the cold front. These boundaries, the cold front moving through from the northwest, and cyclonic flow aloft around the base of the anomalous trough across the central/eastern US/Canada will contribute to higher chances of showers/storms. Drier air filters in behind the front Saturday night and Sunday while troughing remains over the eastern CONUS.
Another item of interest is a cold front that extended from western PA/NY, eastern Kentucky, near Nashville and SW Arkansas.
111 AM EDT Sat Sep 6 2025 Showers and possibly a rumble of thunder will accompany a weak cold front overnight and into the morning. Dry and cooler temperatures expected Saturday afternoon into Sunday. By this time, the prior wave will have pushed the surface cold front SE through most of the region; this means buoyancy will be neigh available and lightning potential will be low (let alone any severe threat). As the upper trough axis inches near the region late in the day, the precipitation line will shift east of the area as dry slotting begins to erode clouds west to east.
1146 PM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025 - A cold front brings rain chances (50-90%) to the area today. - Cooler and dry this weekend with highs in the mid 70s to low 80s. A cold front and upper level disturbance will lead to increasing convective coverage and intensity, mainly along and south of I-44 late this evening into early tonight. The pattern this weekend will feature an upper ridge over the western CONUS and a trough over the central.
1124 PM EDT Fri Sep 5 2025 Showers and possibly a rumble of thunder will accompany a weak cold front overnight and into the morning. Dry and cooler temperatures expected Saturday afternoon into Sunday. KEY MESSAGES: - Dry, cooler weather the remainder of the weekend. Stratocu should develop on Sunday, especially N of Pittsburgh, as an upper trough crosses the eastern Great Lakes and Upper Ohio Valley region. Otherwise, moisture appears too shallow for anything other than some cloud cover as the trough crosses.
The upper trough that has been firmly planted over the eastern US will relax some today which in result will lead to slightly higher temperature through Sunday. A re- enforcing upper trough will push across the Great Lakes on Saturday into Sunday bringing a isolated chance of rain across southeastern Mississippi before pushing yet another front through the area. Given the lower dewpoints, gustier winds and drier conditions, we may need to keep an eye on some minor fire weather concerns but given its still our soggy season we probably won't reach any criteria. Light southerly winds overnight through Saturday will see a shift to northerly around 5 knots as a weak cold front sags south over the forecast area late this afternoon into Saturday evening.
Relatively cooler temperatures will also overspread the region by mid week. Anomalously high moisture remains across the Desert Southwest, trapped beneath a flattening area of high pressure situated over northern Mexico.
-A much cooler day is in store for the Natural State as the cold front has nearly completely the journey from north to south across the state. -High temperatures on Saturday will range statewide from the low 70s to the low 80s.
(Tonight through Sunday) Storms remain across Tennessee at this hour near the cold front. These boundaries, the cold front moving through from the northwest, and cyclonic flow aloft around the base of the anomalous trough across the central/eastern US/Canada will contribute to higher chances of showers/storms. Drier air filters in behind the front Saturday night and Sunday while troughing remains over the eastern CONUS.
227 AM CDT Sat Sep 6 2025 - Cooler than normal again today, with a chance for patchy frost tonight in central MN.
Some mid level cloud cover is expected through the night, however, the cool start to the evening should make low temperatures in the lower to mid 30s very achievable. High temperatures on Saturday will be in the upper 50s to the lower 60s, which are above record low max temperatures for Saturday.
Updated at 1011 PM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025 - Lingering showers and thunderstorms behind a cold front will be clearing out by Saturday afternoon.
At 19Z the surface weather map showed high pressure over much of KS, but a ridge extending across western SD, eastern MT, and Saskatchewan. A ridge of high pressure over western South Dakota will slowly edge across central and eastern South Dakota Saturday afternoon. The ridge of high pressure will exit across Iowa on Sunday, with winds increasing out of the south.
229 AM CDT Sat Sep 6 2025 - Sub-freezing temperatures over parts of western North Dakota this morning. Current surface analysis places deep low centered over James Bay, while high pressure stretches through Saskatchewan into the western Dakotas. For today, cyclonic flow aloft may keep a few clouds over eastern portions of the area, but this will come to an end later today into this evening as ridge over the western CONUS starts its gradual push east.
257 AM EDT Sat Sep 6 2025 - Cool this weekend with highs in the 60s and lows in the lower 40s.
1244 AM CDT Sat Sep 6 2025 - Sub-freezing temperatures possible across the western half of the state late tonight into early Saturday morning. Temperatures have dipped into the lower to mid 30s over western North Dakota, with the lowest temperature of 30 degrees so far being reported at an NDAWN station near Amidon. A broad trough with an upper low over the Hudson Bay continues to bring in northerly cyclonic flow into the region. Some lingering winds and cloud cover will keep the eastern half of the state above freezing. Western North Dakota and portions of central North Dakota will see the chance for frost freezing conditions. Thus, the Freeze Watch was upgraded to a Freezing Warning with a Frost Advisory in the central half of the state. Temperatures are forecast to quickly warm above freezing after sunrise.
look for mostly sunny skies and a warm up as a ridge of high pressure aloft gradually builds over the region from the west this weekend. As the ridge axis moves right over Montana Sunday it will allow an increase in overall moisture into our southwest zones in the backing mid level flow. Locations further east of the foothills only have a slight chance of measurable rainfall during this time as short wave forcing weakens as it tracks east through the ridge and MUCAPE drops off with westerly downslope flow.
Updated at 1119 PM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025 - Rain and thunderstorms comes to an end early Saturday, giving way to cooler temperatures this weekend. (Tonight through Sunday Night) A strong upper level low is set up over southern Ontario dropping a cold front south into Middle TN. As the trough digs early Saturday morning we will see the front stall out over the region with periods of showers and thunderstorms ahead of it. Highs on Saturday will be much cooler only making it into the low to mid 70s. Quiet and pleasant weather can be expected for the second half of the weekend as high pressure builds in from the Plains.
1002 PM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025 - Sub-freezing temperatures possible across the western half of the state late tonight into early Saturday morning. A broad trough with an upper low over the Hudson Bay continues to bring in northerly cyclonic flow into the region. Some lingering winds and cloud cover will keep the eastern half of the state above freezing. Western North Dakota and portions of central North Dakota will see the chance for frost freezing conditions. Thus, the Freeze Watch was upgraded to a Freezing Warning with a Frost Advisory in the central half of the state. Temperatures are forecast to quickly warm above freezing after sunrise.
Lows are expected to fall into the low to mid 30s across much of the area. Large scale mid/upper troughing associated with the Hudson Bay low remains in place, with northerly flow over our region. The Hudson Bay low begins to break down allowing for mid level ridging to build east.
100 AM CDT Sat Sep 6 2025 - Cloudy and cooler today, with scattered showers and a few thunderstorms possible.
157 AM EDT Sat Sep 6 2025 High pressure will allow for fair skies early tonight before a cold front moves into the area on Saturday.
A brief lull in the activity is being observed across the local forecast area ahead of an approaching cold front. Based on radar and sfc observations, the cold front stretches across central TN southwestward towards the AR/MS border. CAMs continue to show showers and thunderstorms developing along or just ahead of the cold front arriving into northwest AL just before sunrise. By this afternoon, the cold front should push south and east of the forecast area bringing in a drier and cooler airmass.
629 AM CDT Sat Sep 6 2025 - Cloudy and cooler today, with scattered showers and a few thunderstorms possible into tonight.
512 AM EDT Wed Jun 11 2025 * Dry and trending warmer with somewhat hazy conditions from Canadian wildfires smoke drifting southeast across the region.
632 AM EDT Wed Jun 11 2025 High pressure builds in today into Thursday. Key Message: 1) High pressure provides dry weather through tonight. At the surface, this boundary starts to track way today with high pressure working in which is going to keep the majority of the area dry with fair weather cumulus scattered around. High pressure keeps us dry tonight with mostly clear skies, with seasonable lows in the mid to upper 50s mountains to lower to mid 60s piedmont.
Issued by National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 716 AM EDT Wed Jun 11 2025 High pressure brings dry weather today through Thursday, with a warming trend.
957 AM EDT Wed Jun 11 2025 High pressure remains intact through the next few days, keeping the forecast dry through at least Thursday.
526 AM EDT Wed Jun 11 2025 High pressure remains intact through the next few days, keeping the forecast dry through at least Thursday.
1027 AM EDT Wed Jun 11 2025 High pressure builds in today into Thursday. Key Message: 1) High pressure provides dry weather through tonight. At the surface, this boundary starts to track way today with high pressure working in which is going to keep the majority of the area dry with fair weather cumulus scattered around. High pressure keeps us dry tonight with mostly clear skies, with seasonable lows in the mid to upper 50s mountains to lower to mid 60s piedmont.
635 AM CDT Wed Jun 11 2025 (Today through Thursday) Upper trough to our east extended from the St. Upper ridging extended from east Texas northward through the northern Plains States, with another off the California coast.
625 AM EDT Wed Jun 11 2025 High pressure will persist across the region into Thursday.
The atmospheric column has continued to saturate as the low-level flow has shifted to an ESE direction. Upper level troughing to the north weakens and lifts northeastward over New England by this evening. This will allow for upper ridging south of Florida to lift northward with the ridge axis centered through central Florida. On the surface, high pressure located near Bermuda ridges west-southwestward across north-central Florida and into the northeastern gulf.
- Warmer than normal temperatures will continue through the weekend, with isolated showers and thunderstorms mainly across the northern half of the area.
Upper-level troughing developing over the Northeast Pacific will see strengthening onshore flow and a continued cooling trend through the week.
603 AM CDT Wed Jun 11 2025 - Highs in the low to mid 90s today with a HeatRisk level of Moderate (level 2 out of 4). We're starting another day with clear skies and light winds this morning as a broad, weak upper-level ridge is positioned over the Central Plains. This will bring high temperatures this afternoon into the low-to-mid 90s.
905 AM EDT Wed Jun 11 2025 High pressure will persist across the region into Thursday.
Seen on MIMIC Precipitable water, moisture is pushing through our area, but there is a small patch of dry air moving towards the Lower Keys.
Hi-res models tend to show the higher amounts near and east of the I-35 corridor for areas generally along and north of a Burnet to Austin to La Grange line. The higher rain chances begin to shift eastward Thursday evening, but will keep a good chance for showers and storms in the forecast given a lingering upper trough axis over the region.
Shear will also increase as the low pressure lifts north. The low moving north will bring a widespread band of precipitation in Southwest MT through Central MT. The troughing pattern will persist into the weekend, which will continue to bring daily chances for showers and thunderstorms through the rest of the week.
1218 PM CDT Wed Jun 11 2025 (Tonight through Thursday night) Low pressure begins to settle into North Texas and the Southern Plains into Thursday before lifting northeast.
(Rest of today through Thursday) High pressure will remain over the Western Atlantic waters keeping an east southeast wind flow over South Florida. Therefore, showers and thunderstorms should develop along the sea breezes and focus the the highest coverage over the western areas of South Florida where they collide.
Minor Heat Risk will be present for most of the lower elevations today with Moderate Heat Risk in localized areas of the San Joaquin Valley and in the Kern County Desert.
- Cooler with periods of showers and storms Thursday through the weekend. Notably warmer this afternoon as Southeast Michigan situates within the warm sector of low pressure set to cross central Lake Huron this evening. Expect additional gusts around 35 mph, particularly for The Thumb region, as the low exits. Cross-meridionally oriented cold frontal boundary descends upon Lower Michigan tonight bringing potential for precipitation after 06Z Thursday. Pattern characterized as a bit cool with persistent easterly flow, governed by ridging to the north.
206 PM EDT Wed Jun 11 2025 High pressure builds in today into Thursday, with warmer than normal temperatures. Warmer than normal temperatures. As the high pressure starts to slowly slide eastward Thursday, increasing moisture return and upslope south to southwesterly flow could spark a few isolated showers and thunderstorms late Thursday afternoon/evening.
316 PM EDT Wed Jun 11 2025 High pressure remains intact through Thursday, keeping the forecast dry. With the higher humidity levels, overnight lows will be more mild as most of our CWA remains above the 60 degree mark. The increased cloud coverage will limit outgoing longwave radiation and lead to warmer overnight lows in the middle to upper 60s.
Ensembles continue to depict weak troughing arriving this weekend, leading to slightly lower heights and cooler highs over the weekend.
VFR conditions and mostly clear skies with just a few shallow cumulus over the higher terrain in the afternoon.
334 PM CDT Wed Jun 11 2025 Through Thursday night: As previously mentioned, a significant upper level pattern change is underway with subtropical ridging expected to be more prominent. The weaker upper level winds and steering flow will allow a cut-off low to our west to meader slowly for a few days and gradually approach the lower/mid MS Valley.
A transition in the overall weather pattern from strong westerlies to a greater upper level ridge presence is bringing a fairly quiet convective regime today. " Temperatures should actually fairly seasonable - highs around 90 and lows in the lower 70s. The upper-level weather pattern will feature troughing generally over our region, as a weakness persists beneath ridge centers over the Desert Southwest and off the Southeast U.
High temperatures slightly cooler in the mid to upper 80s. Otherwise, dry weather through this weekend as a dry cold front cross southeastward across the Great Basin, which keep temperatures only slightly above normal for mid-June in the upper 80s and lower 90s.
Numerous showers and thunderstorms continued through the night in Harney County/OR ahead of a Pacific short wave trough that moved onto the southern OR coast. Hi-res models didn't see the second area but continue to show numerous showers and thunderstorms in the central Idaho Mountains and eastern part of the Boise Mountains early this afternoon as the Oregon trough moves through.
Lastly, lows are still on track to dip into the lower to upper 60s later tonight.
Seen on MIMIC Precipitable water, moisture is pushing through our area, but there is a small patch of dry air moving towards the Lower Keys. As the axis of the associated ridge sags slightly further southward across the Florida Peninsula late this week, moderate to occasionally fresh breezes will be possible.
Upper troughing remains situated west of the forecast area through Thursday night with generally southwest flow aloft overhead. Upper ridging remains to the southeast of the area. Temperatures remain quite warm in the upper 80's to lower 90's during the afternoon with overnight lows generally in the lower 70's.
155 PM EDT Wed Jun 11 2025 A series of upper level disturbances will affect the area through the weekend while high pressure remains offshore. Rest of This Afternoon: Ridging aloft will build into the southeastern states from the east, putting the forecast area along the western periphery of the anti-cyclonic flow. At the surface, WPC has analyzed a stationary front positioned over the SC Midlands, with weak high pressure extending over the local forecast area. Lows are forecast to fall into the low 70s.
Discussion: Ridging aloft will be building overhead through tomorrow. With only weak shear present thanks to the upper ridge in place, only expecting general showers and thunderstorms. Should see more of our typical process unfold, with storms building against the higher elevations at first before additional development or migration into the valley as the afternoon turns into evening.
Temps may squeeze out another degree or two, pushing into the low 90s, before convection/sea breeze begin. Tonight, mostly clear skies will lead to temperatures in the low 70s inland and upper 70s at the beaches.
Otherwise, CIG and VIS remain good thanks to mixing and lack of storms with the trough pulling through.
- Cooler and wetter conditions anticipated through the end of the work week, with heavy rainfall and strong thunderstorms possible at times. Weak remnant upper low still looks to remain however, and with a virtually uncapped air mass in place, CAMs show more redevelopment across the area later this afternoon and evening. Still will carry chance POPs across the western portions of the area, with more likely POPs this afternoon/evening across the Heartland and Hill Country on the southeast side of the upper low. (Thursday night through next Wednesday) The upper level low/trough that has been resulting in showers and thunderstorms across West Central Texas will be centered across northeast Oklahoma Thursday evening. Meanwhile, an upper level ridge will build across the Desert Southwest.
Lows tonight will fall to the low to mid 70s with highs Thursday in the mid to upper 80s. A true summer-like pattern with each day's highs and lows varying less than 2 or 3 degrees through the period save for perhaps a very gradual late period warming of highs as mid level ridging builds over Florida. As the late period Florida ridge builds POPs should start to decrease but still remain above normal. A cold front approaching from the NW may attempt to counteract this trend but due to the ridge it may not get as close as currently forecast.
Weak high pressure has settled across the Florida Peninsula, solidifying an ESE flow. Hail is not impossible, but likely on the smaller side, given temps are warmer than -10C.
The highest precipitation totals will be south of the Missouri River.
Given the high-based nature of these storms, rainfall amounts will be light, if anything, with the main threats from any stronger storm being gusty winds.
(This afternoon through Thursday night) We are seeing scattered showers and storms develop this afternoon across the Permian Basin on the backside of an upper low just to our east. Hopefully everyone enjoyed the cooler temperatures today as highs stay generally 10 degrees below normal. Temperatures will begin to warm Thursday as the upper low pulls away and ridging builds in from the west. High temperatures will climb back to normal and into the low to mid 90s.
Cu crumbles through sunset with mainly clear skies tonight with low temps +5-10F above climo/warmer than last night (this morning) in the 60-65F range. Limiting factors at this stage include displacement of best lift (well to the north) and weak convergence along the southward moving cold front - which reduces confidence to some extent.
1206 PM CDT Wed Jun 11 2025 - Highs in the low to mid 90s today with a HeatRisk level of Moderate (level 2 out of 4). We're starting another day with clear skies and light winds this morning as a broad, weak upper-level ridge is positioned over the Central Plains. This will bring high temperatures this afternoon into the low-to-mid 90s.
This sets the stage for what will be returning daily storm chances, as a weak area of low pressure drifts toward and overtop the MS Valley with time.
132 PM EDT Wed Jun 11 2025 High pressure will persist across the region into Thursday.
200 PM CDT Wed Jun 11 2025 - Slightly cooler today and tomorrow, with afternoon highs in the mid 80s to near 90.
149 PM EDT Wed Jun 11 2025 High pressure remains intact through the next few days, keeping the forecast dry through at least Thursday.
Storms over the higher terrain will primarily be a ltg threat. Min temps towards sunrise should be in the U50s/L60s plains with 40s mainly in the higher terrain. Otherwise, expect another warm day similar to today, with temps maybe a degree or two warmer.
Forecast models continue to prog a better chance for more widespread showers/storms on Thursday over North Central MT, thus pops are on the high side for that area. Also temperatures should be a bit cooler over North Central MT on Thursday because of clouds/precip. Shear will also increase as the low pressure lifts north. The low moving north will bring a widespread band of precipitation in Southwest MT through Central MT. The troughing pattern will persist into the weekend, which will continue to bring daily chances for showers and thunderstorms through the rest of the week.