Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
(Rest of Today) Clear skies across most of the area have allowed morning low temps to rise into the high low 50s area wide. NW AL is currently the only portion of our forecast area seeing some cloud cover associated with the southern extent of a low pressure system moving through the Great Lakes Region.
1000 AM EDT Sun Apr 7 2024 Dry high pressure builds into the region over the weekend and allows temperatures to warm slowly. As of 630 AM: An upper ridge axis moves over the area today and tonight. Even with the warmer temps, RH values should remain above 25 percent with the meager moisture return just enough to keep dew points from bottoming out. As of 210 AM Sunday: Starting off with an upper ridge axis moving eastward away from the CWA, setting up an unsettled pattern for the remainder of the week. Meanwhile, an amplifying high pressure system over the Gulf and a deepening trough over the southwest CONUS set the stage for increased moisture transport and rain.
500 AM CDT Sun Apr 7 2024 Today through Tonight:Increasing southerly windflow will increase low level moisture as warmer air advects in from the Gulf of Mexico. Expect increasing cloud cover ahead of the approaching cold front.
Highs today will run 8 to 13 degrees warmer than yesterday but overall still below normal.
648 AM EDT Sun Apr 7 2024 High pressure to the east of the area will keep the region dry today.
633 AM EDT Sun Apr 7 2024 Dry high pressure builds into the region over the weekend and allows temperatures to warm slowly. As of 630 AM: An upper ridge axis moves over the area today and tonight. Even with the warmer temps, RH values should remain above 25 percent with the meager moisture return just enough to keep dew points from bottoming out. As of 210 AM Sunday: Starting off with an upper ridge axis moving eastward away from the CWA, setting up an unsettled pattern for the remainder of the week. Meanwhile, an amplifying high pressure system over the Gulf and a deepening trough over the southwest CONUS set the stage for increased moisture transport and rain.
633 AM EDT Sun Apr 7 2024 High pressure will build across the region today, sliding off the Carolina coasts on Monday.
629 AM CDT Sun Apr 7 2024 (Today through Monday) A mid-level trough of low pressure kicks out of the Plains as the next drops into northwestern Mexico and deepens into Monday, turning 500mb flow across Deep South Texas southwesterly through the short term period. At the surface, a weak frontal boundary stalls toward the northern CWA border with a pre-frontal trough of low pressure running down into the upper RGV by the afternoon, turning light winds more northerly along and west of US77 before retreating with the sea breeze from east to west late this afternoon into this evening. Cloud cover still looks to persist across Deep South Texas through Monday, with some hope that maybe during the strongest winds in the lower valley, a few breaks could appear in time for whatever view of the eclipse weâll have in the RGV.
1018 AM EDT Sun Apr 7 2024 Showers from low pressure off the New England Coast will come to an end this morning with drier conditions and increasing sunshine today. Tonight, with high pressure settling over the area and clear skies in place, temperatures will likely drop into the 20s and lower 30s, winds will be light and variable, and areas of fog are expected to develop in valleys, especially where snowpack remains.
Temperatures along the Island Chain are mainly in the lower 70s with some isolated spots already in the mid 70s such as the Big Pine Key RAWS.
Scattered snow showers continue across Eastern Idaho this afternoon and evening as an upper level trough moves over the area. At the lower elevations, a heavier snow shower could bring some quick, light accumulations of snow and/or graupel with the HREF giving about a 10 to 20 percent chance of hearing some thunder this afternoon and early evening. Since we'll be drier and see more sunshine on Monday as high pressure begins to build, temperatures will warm back into the 40s and low 50s for afternoon highs.
253 PM EDT Sun Apr 7 2024 (This afternoon through Monday night) Key Messages: - Warmer overnight lows tonight. A weak cold front will stall well NW of the area tonight and Monday. Overnight lows tonight will average about 10 degrees warmer than last night, ranging from the mid 40s in the NE mountains to the mid 50s beneath the increasing cloudiness in the NW.
1243 PM CDT Sun Apr 7 2024 (Rest of Today) Clear skies across most of the area have allowed morning low temps to rise into the high low 50s area wide. NW AL is currently the only portion of our forecast area seeing some cloud cover associated with the southern extent of a low pressure system moving through the Great Lakes Region.
1131 AM MDT Sun Apr 7 2024 The upper low, currently located to the east of Valentine, Neb will continue to spin periodic bands of precipitation across the forecast area today. The highest combined impact of snow and wind likely will be over Campbell County.
The aforementioned high pressure system will continue to be the main culprit driving the weather across the Keys for the next several days.
Regarding near critical fire weather conditions: Mild temperatures and Tds holding in the upper 20s have resulted in RH values in the 24 to A slow moving cutoff upper low remains centered near southeast South Dakota/northeast Nebraska/northwest Iowa. The general movement of the upper low should be east with the deformation zone pivoting and eventually increasing light rain chances north and northeast before exiting our east Monday night (matching latest HREF/NBM trends.
Meanwhile at the upper levels, a Pacific trough is progged to deepen and develop into a closed low by Monday evening.
914 AM MDT Sun Apr 7 2024 The upper low, currently located to the east of Valentine, Neb will continue to spin periodic bands of precipitation across the forecast area today. The highest combined impact of snow and wind likely will be over Campbell County.
131 PM EDT Sun Apr 7 2024 Dry high pressure builds into the region over the weekend and allows temperatures to warm slowly. As of 630 AM: An upper ridge axis moves over the area today and tonight. Even with the warmer temps, RH values should remain above 25 percent with the meager moisture return just enough to keep dew points from bottoming out.
Warmer and drier weather will stick around today, before slightly cooler temperatures and isolated showers return on Monday. By mid-week, a ridge will build over the area and bring above normal temperatures and mostly dry conditions through the end of the week. Temperatures will be about 7 to 10 degrees warmer than yesterday. A zonal flow will be over Arizona today, before a closed low passes through tomorrow. This west to east flow will bring warmer temperatures (although still below normal for this time of year), and mostly light winds. Come Monday, this low will dig across Arizona allowing precipitation chances to return.
Dew points are crashing many 10 of degrees in E TX as the dry line's influence is ushered in under the negatively tilting upper low over Nebraska.
144 PM EDT Sun Apr 7 2024 High pressure will slowly move to the eastern Great Lakes through the evening as a warm front approaches from the west tonight. This warm front lifts across the region Monday. A series of low pressure systems will then impact the region mid week. As a warm front moves closer to the region expect it to interact with a 7H jet that pushes into southern Ohio overnight. Temperatures tonight remain above freezing tonight with lows at most locations in the 40's. A bit cooler across NW PA with upper 50's to lower 60's common.
pdf High pressure remains Northeast of the region over the Carolinas through tonight and Easterly winds at 10-15 mph this afternoon will become light Southeast tonight at 5 mph or less. Under mostly clear to partly cloudy skies with periods of thin high clouds at times, still expect low temps to fall to the cooler side of MOS guidance over inland areas with lows around 50 degrees, while the light onshore flow will keep low temps along the Atlantic Coast in the mid/upper 50s.
1124 AM EDT Sun Apr 7 2024 Ridging aloft and developing southerly winds will be the main drivers of the forecast for today. Due to the strong ridging and dry airmass, decided to lower dewpoints some area-wide. Discussion: High pressure at the surface and upper ridging aloft will provide plenty of sunshine today. The axis of the upper ridge will shift to our east tonight, and low level southwest flow will begin to increase which will bring an increase in moisture.
The highest combined impact of snow and wind still be over Campbell County in northeastern Wyoming. The upper low is centered to the southeast of Winner this afternoon, spinning bands of precipitation across the forecast area.
145 PM PDT Sun Apr 7 2024 A trough deepening over the Great Basin today will move south into Arizona tonight.
Short Term (Today and Tomorrow) A deep occluded cyclone is tracking across northeast Nebraska and progressing towards northwest Iowa. Vorticity associated with the approaching low pressure system in addition to the combination of warm air near the surface and cold air aloft could bring a few cold air funnels to the area today. Wind speeds will remain their strongest for the southern half of our CWA today as the low moves into the northern half. The low pressure system will begin to depart to the northeast on Monday, bringing highs in the 60s and a break in cloud cover for some of us just in for the partial eclipse viewing (don't forget the eye protection!).
930 AM PDT Sun Apr 7 2024 A trough deepening over the western United States will bring gusty west winds this afternoon. This trough will bring partly cloudy skies Monday along with gusty north to northeast winds in the mountains, deserts and the Inland Empire.
126 PM EDT Sun Apr 7 2024 High pressure will build across the region today, sliding off the coast on Monday.
108 PM EDT Sun Apr 7 2024 Ridging aloft and developing southerly winds will be the main drivers of the forecast for today. Due to the strong ridging and dry airmass, decided to lower dewpoints some area-wide. Discussion: High pressure at the surface and upper ridging aloft will provide plenty of sunshine today. The axis of the upper ridge will shift to our east tonight, and low level southwest flow will begin to increase which will bring an increase in moisture.
(This evening through Monday) Westerly winds were finally losing some of their punch early this afternoon as a vertically stacked cyclone continued to pull farther away while moving across the Corn Belt. Models are in good agreement with this front stalling across our northern counties by late Monday morning underneath deepening southwest flow downstream of an upper low dropping across the Desert Southwest. Of greater interest will be a warm front lifting into the Rolling Plains tomorrow afternoon ahead of improving Gulf moisture and the eventual development of a triple point in the southern South Plains. High resolution models share a common theme of moisture convergence targeting the Rolling Plains by mid-to-late afternoon aided by breezy S-SE flow through the lowest kilometer.
Snow will taper off Monday morning as the main longwave trough exits through to the east not seeing improving skies until later in the afternoon and evening hours (not a good eclipse viewing unfortunately). The gusty winds from Sunday afternoon east of the Bighorns will diminish overnight into much of Monday as well as upper level ridging builds in from the southwest with increasing convergence aloft.
Isolated (less than 20 percent coverage) showers over the higher elevations will become scattered (generally 25-50 percent coverage) in the afternoon due to the instability and daytime heating associated with an upper trough. Scattered rain, snow, and graupel showers this afternoon, mainly over the higher terrain. Low threat of thunderstorms today, mainly over the higher terrain. Decreasing clouds tonight will allow for patchy fog development, with the highest chance of fog 12-16Z Monday morning.
A vertically-stacked low pressure system, currently located over northeastern Nebraska, will continue to lift northeastward with time. Although the bulk of the large-scale forcing for ascent shifts northward with the low, some lingering PVA around the mid-level low could support a low chance (less than 20 percent) for a shower tonight, mainly along the Highway 20 corridor. Otherwise, Monday should be dry across the area, with temperatures warming up in the wake of the warm front - into the lower 60s north to the lower 70s south.
High pressure will begin encroaching upon the area tonight and tomorrow.
(Rest of today through Monday) High pressure will remain in control through Monday which will result in continued dry and seasonable weather across South FL. With the high centered over the southeast US today, the low level flow is out of the NE today. As the high shifts into the western Atlantic and strengthens on Monday, the flow will become more easterly and the breeze will pick up noticeably as well. With plenty of dry air in place today, dewpoints this afternoon will mix out into the lower 50s around the lake, and mid/upper 50s elsewhere.
Low level moisture will surge north into southeast Oklahoma Monday afternoon into Monday evening along warm front.
1158 AM EDT Sun Apr 7 2024 High pressure will build across the region today, sliding off the coast on Monday.
/16 (Now through Monday) An upper level short trough approaching the Southern Plains will build an upper ridge over the East Coast a bit through the near term. The building upper ridge combined with the increasing moisture levels will help to keep temperatures around to a bit above seasonal norms. Low temperatures tonight are expected to range from the low 50s over northeastern- most portions of the forecast area to around 60 over most of inland southeast Mississippi and along the coast.
Area of low pressure over southeastern South Dakota is expected to continue to churn north and east into the Upper Midwest tonight into Monday. Southwest winds are expected to remain tonight into Monday as low pressure continues to lift northeast. High temperatures on Monday are expected to be about 10 degrees above normal in the low to mid 70s with lighter winds than today as the low continues to move away from the region. Secondary cold front associated with the departing low is expected to work through the region Monday evening.
The return of southerly flow (850mb jet of 30-35kts) will keep temperatures mild with breezy conditions especially over the higher terrain.
Any light showers over the Sierra and northern Sacramento Valley will taper off this afternoon as a ridge builds over NorCal. The presence of said ridge to our northwest and the trough moving to our southeast will result in some breezy northerly winds on Monday.
Temperatures will remain cooler than normal through tomorrow as a low pressure system moves through the area.
Temperatures will be little warmer tomorrow morning but still on the cooler side with lows in the 50's.
pdf High pressure ridge around 1022 mb was located off the southeast U. High pressure remains Northeast of the region over the Carolinas through tonight and Easterly winds at 10-15 mph this afternoon will become light Southeast tonight at 5 mph or less. Under mostly clear to partly cloudy skies with periods of thin high clouds at times, still expect low temps to fall to the cooler side of MOS guidance over inland areas with lows around 50 degrees, while the light onshore flow will keep low temps along the Atlantic Coast in the mid/upper 50s.
Light rain showers continue today, primarily in Trinity County, as a trough moves out of the region. Cold low temperatures will moderate slightly in the coming days, though are forecast to still be in the low to mid 30s in interior Mendocino and Lake Counties tonight. A dominate high-pressure ridge will begin to build in Monday and bring dry weather and warmer temperatures to the area.
The upper air pattern in the region is characterized by southwesterly flow over Arizona with a trough making its way south through California. This trough will strengthen as it moves south becoming closed Monday as it moves through southern Arizona and northern Sonora.
607 PM CDT Sun Apr 7 2024 (This evening through Monday) Westerly winds were finally losing some of their punch early this afternoon as a vertically stacked cyclone continued to pull farther away while moving across the Corn Belt. Models are in good agreement with this front stalling across our northern counties by late Monday morning underneath deepening southwest flow downstream of an upper low dropping across the Desert Southwest. Of greater interest will be a warm front lifting into the Rolling Plains tomorrow afternoon ahead of improving Gulf moisture and the eventual development of a triple point in the southern South Plains. High resolution models share a common theme of moisture convergence targeting the Rolling Plains by mid-to-late afternoon aided by breezy S-SE flow through the lowest kilometer.
This high pressure center is expected to move off to the east overnight while a mid/upper level low pressure system digs southeastward into the Desert Southwest. Some temps near 50 deg are possible over parts of Southeast Oklahoma as the high clouds are forecast to reach these locations first. Low level moisture will surge north into southeast Oklahoma Monday afternoon into Monday evening along warm front.
Still seeing impacts from the slow moving low pressure system that is slowly churning across the central plains. Additionally the 700mb winds have not dropped off like previous models were suggesting and this two factors have kept winds consistently above high wind criteria which is why all the High Wind Warnings were extended and additional 5hrs and will now expire at 8pm this evening if winds subside, which models are beginning to adjust with the slower downward trend in the winds and do show winds should begin to decrease outside of the wind prone areas first by the early evening and then across the wind prones shortly after. Temperatures will trend a few degrees cooler in locations that have a fresh snowpack but with winds expected to remain elevated temperatures aren't expected to drop too much.
(This afternoon through Monday night) Key Messages: - Warmer overnight lows tonight. A weak cold front will stall well NW of the area tonight and Monday. Overnight lows tonight will average about 10 degrees warmer than last night, ranging from the mid 40s in the NE mountains to the mid 50s beneath the increasing cloudiness in the NW.
A vertically-stacked low pressure system, currently located over northeastern Nebraska, will continue to lift northeastward with time. Although the bulk of the large-scale forcing for ascent shifts northward with the low, some lingering PVA around the mid-level low could support a low chance (less than 20 percent) for a shower tonight, mainly along the Highway 20 corridor. Otherwise, Monday should be dry across the area, with temperatures warming up in the wake of the warm front - into the lower 60s north to the lower 70s south. Monday night through Tuesday night should be dry in our area as we remain between two upper-level disturbances, with the most notable one developing to our southwest as a longwave trough deepens over the Intermountain West states.
The associated cold front stretches from central Iowa into eastern Kansas and will move through the forecast area late tonight. The aforementioned cold front will move through the forecast area overnight into Tuesday as it's associated surface and mid-level low slide northeastward in lockstep. This cold front will usher in a cooler airmass that will keep temperatures near normal through the remainder of the work week. MRM As the mid-level low is lifting northeast out of the Upper Mississippi Valley another trough will slide across the southern US and approach the region. The trough will weaken as it pushes across the forecast area during the second half of the work week. At the surface a low will form across Texas ahead of the mid-level trough Tuesday night, with a warm front stretched eastward into the mid- Mississippi River and Ohio River Valleys.
354 AM CDT Mon Apr 8 2024 - A slow moving low pressure system continues to bring rain showers to the Northland today and tomorrow.
As we proceed into the overnight, midlevel height changes will tend toward neutral, behind a trof axis lifting into the Ohio and Tennessee River Valleys.
940 PM PDT Sun Apr 7 2024 A trough deepening over the Great Basin will move south into Arizona tonight.
Discussion: We will be in southwest flow aloft between the upper ridge to our east and troughing to our west.
The system responsible for recent strong winds has finally shifted north and east with a ridge of high pressure overhead. Another light wind day is anticipated on Tuesday as a mid/upper trough emerges from the Southern Rockies into the Southern Plains. some cooler air will be drawn southward in the wake of the Southern Plains storm system but seasonable values are still anticipated with highs in the mid and upper 60s on Thu. A mid/upper ridge is progged to build into the central CONUS bringing rising heights/increasing thickness and rising temperatures.
Some patchy fog/low clouds across portions the Snake Plain, Magic Valley remains possible as well, but otherwise expect a nice, warmer start to the workweek.
319 AM EDT Mon Apr 8 2024 High pressure will be centered to our north today into Tuesday.
A large longwave trough is also moving through southern California with a 100 kt jet streak ahead of the trough from New Mexico through southwest Kansas. Otherwise we should have quiet weather conditions as a cold front which has moved through western Kansas will keep surface winds out of the north to northeast and these winds should be significantly less than compared to the weekend at around 5-15 mph. Tuesday we will have another day with north to northeast winds which will lead to cooler afternoon highs. The track of the upper low continues to move from southern New Mexico through west Texas with the best forcing pinwheeling from the southern Texas panhandle through central Oklahoma.
IR currently depicts the upper level low over the Great Plains pushing towards northeastern Nebraska. Snow will taper off Monday morning as the main longwave trough exits through to the east not seeing improving skies until later in the afternoon and evening hours (not a good eclipse viewing unfortunately).
Localized sub-freezing temperatures are possible in valleys where vegetation is susceptible to damage.
313 AM EDT Mon Apr 8 2024 The region was between high pressure off the southeast coast and low pressure that stretched from the Great Lakes to the Southern Plains.
(Today through Tuesday) The next mid-level trough of low pressure drops into northwestern Mexico and deepens into Monday night, before swinging into West Texas on Tuesday, maintaining southwesterly 500mb flow across Deep South Texas. A 40kt LLJ sets up along the Western Gulf, increasing southeasterly winds across the lower Texas coast mid morning through this afternoon. As for the cloud cover, it still looks to persist across Deep South Texas through the short term period, with some hope that maybe during the strongest winds in the lower valley early this afternoon, a few breaks could appear.
However, a fairly flat upper ridge will continue to allow high clouds to move through. The position of the high will result in the flow becoming more from the east southeast, vs east this period which will aid in warmer temperatures. While coastal waters are warming, readings in the lower to mid 60s range will continue to provide a cooling affect during the day. Inland lows in the mid to upper 50s will be common, while lows in the lower to mid 60s will be expected at the coast.
124 AM EDT Mon Apr 8 2024 High pressure departs the region through Monday allowing an increase in moisture into Tuesday.