Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
- Pockets of heavy rainfall are possible overnight tonight and through Sunday as a weak cold front moves through. 5 inches across the region with the highest amounts across the eastern portions of our area (San Saba etc. Later on this evening, the coverage and intensity of the rain is expected to expand across all of West Central Texas (Big Country included) as a weak cold front traverses the area.
Satellite imagery currently shows a broad low pressure system circulating just off the coast. Models have this low meandering towards the Olympic Peninsula before retrograding during the week, leaving our forecast area caught between two deep troughs. A quasi-ridge pattern results, which will cause a distinct warm-up through the midweek. CAMs are not too bullish on coverage this afternoon and evening, likely due to the low shear and subsidence aloft as weak ridging forms ahead of this offshore low, but the ingredients still remain for at least isolated activity for the area.
With a mid-level ridge over Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley, and low-level southerly to southeasterly flow advecting more low-level moisture into the region.
This general pattern is forecast to stick around Sunday and Labor Day, though daytime temperatures will warm to around 5 degrees above normal as high pressure becomes centered right over the state.
222 PM EDT Sat Aug 30 2025 An upper level trough impacting the eastern CONUS will keep the region below normal as far as temperatures are concerned through the weekend.
Satellite shows cumulus over the higher terrain with a couple weak echoes over the Chiricahuas and southern Greenlee County. Sunday the center of the high pushes a little further north resulting in easterly/northeasterly mid-level flow over most of southeast Arizona.
Hi-res guidance shows mostly isolated storms tied to the higher terrain. Temperatures will be warmer today right around normal to a couple degrees above normal. /issued 248 AM MST Sat Aug 30 2025/ Today, winds in the low to mid levels take a northerly turn, pushing moisture south and out of much of southeastern Arizona.
A low pressure system to our north continues to contribute to increased cloudiness and low chances (less than 20 percent) for a light rain shower across northern Hamilton and Herkimer counties this afternoon.
(Rest of Today and Tonight) Tranquil weather across the Tennessee Valley again today with high pressure in control of our sensible weather. Model soundings show a very dry profile indicative of strong subsidence from the ridge. Despite northwesterly flow aloft reinforcing this "cooler" and drier air mass, ample sunshine should warm highs into the 85 to 90 degree range.
There is a temperature gradient today due to the higher cloud cover in the SE.
- Cooler temperatures continue. Toward sunrise, the highest chance of showers and thunderstorms will be near the I-44 corridor.
145 PM MDT Sat Aug 30 2025 - Mostly dry weather and gradually warmer temps for Labor Day weekend. Upper ridge beginning to amplify through the Great Basin per WV satellite imagery. Most of the week remains under the influence of amplified ridge of high pressure across the west.
Synoptically speaking, an area and ridge of high pressure will be centered over Utah as a deep, stationary low spins off the PacNW coast.
1148 AM MDT Sat Aug 30 2025 - Mostly dry weather and gradually warmer temps for Labor Day weekend. Upper level ridge over western Idaho will slide through central Idaho. Models are picking up on some moisture that will try to work over the top of the ridge. Some of the models are indicating a few isolated light rain showers developing this afternoon in the higher terrain of western Custer County.
255 PM EDT Sat Aug 30 2025 An upper level low will slowly cross the region through tonight.
WV imagery indicates extremely weak ridging aloft situated across the Western High Plains. Near the surface, a weak area of low pressure is edging east through northwest Kansas with an attendant frontal boundary extending south-southwest into extreme southeast Colorado. Although little change to the general air mass is expected Sunday under the influence of weak north-northeasterlies, decreased cloud cover may allow a slight bump up in temperatures with highs in the mid/upper 70s(F) in central Kansas to the lower 80s(F) in extreme southwest Kansas. A weak cold front will move through the area with wind from the east to north at less than 10 knots behind the front.
The flow aloft should amplify quickly as an upperl-evel ridge over the Rockies elongates and deep troughing digs over the eastern half of the CONUS. Upper-level heights in the core of this trough will be about 2-4 standard deviations below normal for this time of year - resulting in suppressed early September temperatures running about 5 degrees below normal.
109 PM EDT Sat Aug 30 2025 High pressure gradually building over the region will bring fair and pleasant weather through the Labor Day Holiday Weekend.
- A series of cold fronts this week will allow for slightly near normal to slightly below normal daytime temperatures and below normal overnight temperatures. The Southern Plains and Lower Miss Valley remain under the influence of northwest flow aloft with a deep longwave trough noted aross the Appalachians and weak upper ridging across the Intermountain West.
Slightly below normal temperatures with highs in the lower to middle 80s and plentiful sunshine remains forecast thru its duration. The mean long wave trof sharpens and amplifies during the mid week, with marked height falls driving an open wave of low pressure embedded within its trof thru first, followed by a more robust cyclogenesis that drives a cold front thru the area not long afterward. Despite the pops returning during the mid week period, the DESI continues to produce guidance figures mostly in the low chance range for appreciable areal average pcpn.
A strong and amplified ridge continues to build across the Pacific Northwest today and will remain in place through the holiday weekend.
154 PM EDT Sat Aug 30 2025 Showers across south-central SC and the CSRA expected today as a broad trough slides into the eastern US.
The final days of meteorological summer will wrap on the drier and slightly cooler side. All of this is courtesy of a widespread area of high pressure across the Great Lakes region. This will change very little over the course of the next few days a blocking pattern (quasi-rex block) will keep the main forcing and frontal features positioned across the central United States. In the near/short term, cloud cover trapped below an inversion should start to gradually erode this evening following the passage of a trough axis shooting south from Wisconsin, though The aforementioned high pressure will the hold in place Sunday and even strengthen some on Labor Day. The low level airmass will warm slightly each day, closer to 80 degrees inland after the cooler day today.
The cooler and drier air north of the front will keep temps up to 5 degrees below average for this time of year. The upper-level trough across the Great Lakes region is expected to reinforce the northwesterly flow aloft and bring in slightly drier air aloft.
(Tonight) High pressure remains in control of the weather across the Tennessee Valley this afternoon, with only a few fair weather cumulus clouds noted on satellite. This will make another good setup for radiational cooling in this cooler, drier air mass as temperatures will likely drop into the upper 50s to lower 60s in most locations by Sunday morning.
Very early season troughing has dug into the eastern United States, with lower level troughing reaching down into the Florida Peninsula. No significant change to the local weather pattern is expected as the mid latitude trough to our north is not expected to go anywhere any time soon. Aside from rain cooling, overnight lows will be broadly in the lower 80s with dew points in the mid 70s.
- RCG /Issued 225 PM MDT Sat Aug 30 2025/ - Meteorological Overview: Upper level ridge will build in over the Northern Rockies through the first half of the upcoming work week, which will allow temperatures to warm above normal across all locations. Winds will be light and variable beneath the ridging pattern with overall dry conditions.
Scattered showers and storms ongoing this afternoon as the trough begins to move out of the region. Moving into Sunday the western ridge begins to overspread and take control, drying our CWA out and bringing calm conditions overall. With the ridging building we should also see temperatures on the rise, though highs for the day should still linger in the 70's to low 80's, remaining several degrees below normal for this time of year. Pleasant weather is in store to begin the week with limited chances of precipitation coupled with cooler temperatures across the CWA. One of the main synoptic features that will dominate weather conditions here locally will be a stout ridge that builds aloft across the western CONUS.
737 PM EDT Sat Aug 30 2025 An upper level trough impacting the eastern CONUS will keep the region below normal as far as temperatures are concerned through the weekend.
(Rest of tonight and Sunday) High pressure will remain anchored for another night. There will be enough sunshine through those partly cloudy skies to help temps reach the lower 80s (NE AL) to the upper 80s (elsewhere).
A strong upper ridge will bring more hot temperatures to the region on Sunday, along with dry conditions.
538 PM MDT Sat Aug 30 2025 - Mostly dry weather and gradually warmer temps for Labor Day weekend. Upper ridge beginning to amplify through the Great Basin per WV satellite imagery. Most of the week remains under the influence of amplified ridge of high pressure across the west.
704 PM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025 - Scattered rain showers with some thunder will continue through the overnight hours, but it will be more of a light to moderate rain lacking the high rainfall rates necessary for flooding.
812 PM EDT Sat Aug 30 2025 (Today through Sunday) A prolonged period of unsettled weather is fast approaching for South Florida as deep upper level troughing sets up over the Eastern Seaboard. The trough axis is forecast to extend southward along the Florida peninsula, while a corresponding quasi- stationary surface boundary is expected to set up across northern Florida today, supporting sustained enhanced moisture advection from the Gulf as westerly flow develops.
Patchy fog expected to develop in favored areas such as river valleys and sheltered areas near warmer bodies of water. A low pressure system to our north continues to contribute to increased cloudiness and low chances (less than 20 percent) for a light rain shower across northern Hamilton and Herkimer counties this afternoon.
/Issued 225 PM MDT Sat Aug 30 2025/ - Meteorological Overview: Upper level ridge will build in over the Northern Rockies through the first half of the upcoming work week, which will allow temperatures to warm above normal across all locations. Winds will be light and variable beneath the ridging pattern with overall dry conditions.
557 PM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025 (Tonight) High pressure remains in control of the weather across the Tennessee Valley this afternoon, with only a few fair weather cumulus clouds noted on satellite. This will make another good setup for radiational cooling in this cooler, drier air mass as temperatures will likely drop into the upper 50s to lower 60s in most locations by Sunday morning.
Most values drop into the low to mid 50s. The end of the holiday weekend remains mostly dry with slightly cooler than normal temperatures. Highs reach the low to mid 80s on Monday, and expect chilly night's with lows mostly in the 50s.
The front is, however, expected to bring some cooler temperatures to the region, with high temperatures Wednesday peaking in the mid 70s to low 80s, and low temperatures Wednesday night in the mid 40s to low 50s.
First is the departing low pressure system which lifted from near El Paso, TX 24 hours ago to it's current position in northwest Iowa.
The first of two cold fronts is located across the eastern edge of the Mid-South. The second cold front is currently across northeast Oklahoma and into west Texas. In between these two fronts, dry weather and above normal temperatures will be found this afternoon across much of the Mid- South with highs in the low to mid 70s. The second cold front will reach the western edge of the Mid-South tonight and move through the region overnight. By Wednesday, much cooler temperatures will filter into the Mid-South with freezing conditions possible by the end of this week.
(Tonight through Wednesday night) Key Messages: - Cooler conditions finally make it to South Texas - Elevated Fire Weather conditions expected Wednesday - Small Craft Advisory conditions expected late tonight into early Wednesday night. Reinforcing high pressure will surge south into the area, reaching the coast by 12Z Wednesday. Highs for Wednesday will finally be cooler, staying in the low to mid 70s. As strange as it is to say this, those of you with livestock and outdoor pets will need to make sure they have somewhere warm to hide out as Wednesday night will be the first night of the season where temperatures will drop into the low 40s to the mid 30s.
WV imagery indicates a strong closed upper low lifting northeast through the Upper Midwest. Near the Surface, a cold front is pushing slowly southeast across northwest Kansas. With little moisture to work with in the lower levels, rain chances (<10%) are forecast to remain fairly limited through Tuesday night. The drier pattern is forecast to persist through the rest of the week as ridging aloft builds in and amplifies across the Intermountain West while downsloping reinforces a dry air mass across the high plains of western Kansas. Fairly seasonal temperatures can be expected today as colder air filters into western Kansas in wake of a cold frontal passage by early afternoon, dropping H85 temperatures down to near 0C. A gradual warming trend is then forecast through the end of the week as the aforementioned ridging aloft approaches from the west.
The low pressure system which brought much of the forecast area 0. The forecast area will be positioned between a low over southern Canada and the high over western Texas/Oklahoma.
(This evening through Wednesday night) W weak cold front has moved east of the area this afternoon. So far, not much of a difference in temperatures, in fact it may be just a bit warmer with temperatures in the 80s this afternoon. That said, we'll be watching a secondary stronger cold front.
A cold front is expected to reach area TAF sites around 18z Wednesday.
Issued by National Weather Service Memphis TN 1143 AM CST Tue Nov 19 2024 (Today through Wednesday Night) The upper low is expected to move into the Midwest today. Another upper low in southern Canada will move into the Great Lakes Wednesday and then move slowly southeastward. An upper ridge will develop in the western U. A secondary weak cold front will move through Arkansas today. This front will usher in cooler and drier air. With high pressure moving into the area tonight, winds will turn to the northwest and bring in colder air.
Latest surface analysis is showing a secondary cold front moving across the area with stronger cold air advection behind it will bring temperatures back down closer to mid-November normal through tomorrow night. The HREF is showing the next upper trough moving across Missouri late tonight into Wednesday morning that will bring a round of decent ascent but limited moisture across the area.
1140 AM CST Tue Nov 19 2024 (Today through Wednesday Night) Cooler/drier air will continue to filter down into the area today in the wake of yesterday' s cold front. Lows tonight should range from the upper 40s across the northern most counties (Piney Woods) to the lower and mid 50s for much of the rest of the CWA. The secondary surge of even cooler/drier air will lower highs tomorrow to the upper 60s to lower 70. with lows from the upper 30s north to the lower to mid 40s central/south (mid 50s at the beaches).
1020 AM MST Tue Nov 19 2024 - Trough hangs around today, which will keep some light snow showers around mountain ranges. - A ridge develops over WY on Wednesday with a potential Bomb Cyclone (low) off the PACNW coast. This ridge will allow a warming trend through this week into this weekend before the low comes onshore.
1113 AM CST Tue Nov 19 2024 Current hi-res global models show a cold front over the east half of our forecast area. Elsewhere, areas in the Pine Belt Region will see highs in the low 80s. /CR/ A fairly strong cold front made its way through the area last night, and is continuing to track out of the area early this morning.
This is advance of a cold front that is steadily marching across the Gulf of Mexico this morning. Southerly winds will persist today into tonight as the high retreats east and the front slowly pushes closer to the Florida Keys.
Cold temperatures remain as an elongated trough sits across much of the central/western United States. Expect daytime highs to tap out in the low to mid 40s for much of the High Country, with lower elevation locations landing in the 50s and 60s this afternoon. The anticipated climb in temperatures will be a result of a building ridge across the region.
Water vapor shows upper low lifting northward over southern Minnesota while northern stream low over northern Montana slowly moves eastward. The pair of upper lows consolidate late today along the Minnesota/North Dakota/Manitoba border then shifts slowly southeast on Wednesday. The merging of mid/upper lows later today results in strongest BL-700mb winds late this evening through mid day Wednesday.
High pressure aloft will bring warmer than normal temperatures to the area as the week progresses. The biggest story for Southeast Arizona will be the high pressure for the rest of the week. There is solid agreement on the ridge building tomorrow through the weekend.
(Today and tonight) The upper low is currently over Iowa and will move over Minnesota by sunrise. The upper low is pushing a cold front southward, and is moving into northern Kansas as of 1 AM. The cold front will move rather slowly southward through the day as there is no upper level support to help speed up the FROPA. This should allow for temps to drop to below freezing area wide on the Caprock and the western Rolling Plains.
(Rest of today through Wednesday) Showers continue across the area this morning with the cold front near the Tennessee River. The cold front will finally clear the plateau around dawn on Wednesday but a stronger cold front will be on its heels.
Expect overnight lows to dip into the low 50s range areawide. Looking ahead into Wednesday, hi-res model guidance shows the cold front pushing east into central MS. Sky cover will be generally clear with afternoon highs peaking into the low 60s areawide. With the cold front pushing into our area along with a 3 to 4 mb pressure gradient, most of central MS could see sustained winds of 20-25 mph with gusts up to 40 mph.
Tranquil weather will continue today despite the ridge weakening as abundantly dry and stable air remains present in South Florida. High temperatures today will be in the low to mid 80s. By Wednesday morning, the moisture boundary from the Gulf will begin to advect into the Lake Okeechobee region with the cold front boundary located along the northern edge of the moisture plume.
321 PM EST Tue Nov 19 2024 A cold front will be moving into the area through early Wednesday, bringing a chance of showers with it.
(This evening through Wednesday Night) Cooler weather returns to the Four State Region starting this week as a frontal boundary arrives tomorrow. Ongoing troughing across the Upper Great Plains will shift eastward into the Midwest through the middle of the week, with the bottom of the trough axis veering mid-level flow from southwesterly, to zonal, then to northwesterly with the attendant frontal boundary and post-frontal air mass ushered in.
345 PM EST Tue Nov 19 2024 High pressure will build toward the region through Wednesday.
1057 AM CST Tue Nov 19 2024 - Cooler temperatures for the middle to latter part of the upcoming week.
1111 AM CST Tue Nov 19 2024 (Rest of today through Wednesday) Showers continue across the area this morning with the cold front near the Tennessee River. The cold front will finally clear the plateau around dawn on Wednesday but a stronger cold front will be on its heels.
- Cooler temperatures for the middle to latter part of the week.
1042 AM CST Tue Nov 19 2024 (Tonight through Wednesday night) The drier air behind yesterdays cold front has had difficulty pushing offshore, with dewpoints along the coast still hovering around 60. High temperatures will be in the 80s once again before the cooler airmass moves in tonight into tomorrow morning. The troughing associated with the yesterday's front finally pushes cleanly past our area tomorrow and will usher in the aforementioned cooler airmass. High temperatures will be 5-10 degrees cooler than today.
(The rest of this afternoon and tonight) A subtle cold front continues to work its way southeastward through the forecast area early this afternoon. Ahead of the front, latest surface observations show light and variable winds, with dewpoints in the low-mid 50s. A few locations may briefly hit freezing (32F) near the OK/KS border.
Showers along with a few thunderstorms will continue to spread EWD/SEWD through the day ahead of a cold front currently extending from W TN to S LA. For Wednesday, after some early morning clouds/fog, look for decreasing cloudiness with drier and cooler air moving into the state.
Temperatures will trend warmer for the rest of the work week.
500mb ridging builds in behind this departing system, the main question is probably just how amplified the ridging is. That is when the most people will be on the roads, winds will be quite gusty (mainly west of the RRV), snow will be coming down, and temperatures will be below freezing (so it will be slippery). With the westerly flow expected around the low, this could possibly be explained by some sort of upslope flow moving up the higher terrain east of the RRV in west central Minnesota. See some warm advection actually wrapping around the low and possibly some less organized frontogenesis, but not really anything to justify snowfall amounts much higher than 3 to 5 inches.
A secondary cold front, that recently moved through the I-44 corridor will push across the Mid-South overnight eventually ending the fog threat. A dry cold front will move through the region tonight through Wednesday morning. Behind the front, much cooler air will move into the region with highs on Wednesday in the upper 50s to lower 60s.
537 PM CST Tue Nov 19 2024 A dry cold front will move through the region tonight through Wednesday morning. Behind the front, much cooler air will move into the region with highs on Wednesday in the upper 50s to lower 60s.
Otherwise, the synoptic pattern will favor near to slightly below average temperatures through late week across the region, as Canadian high pressure attempts to build in from the north.
A cold front Wednesday brings much colder air. Shallow low level moisture in the wake of cold frontal passage will yield low stratus, fog, and patchy drizzle through daybreak on Wednesday with highly variable visibilities. A cold front will continue to provide a band of showers moving eastward across the area this afternoon. With some slight cooling in the lower levels, drizzle becomes a possibility tonight. A strong reinforcing cold front will then push through on Wednesday. The air will turn sharply colder Wednesday night in the wake of a strong cold front.
It's a cool day in northern Arizona in the wake of a cold front passage through the four corners this morning. Another cold night is in store, especially near the four corners will lows will drop into the low teens. Warmer conditions arrive tomorrow when we see heights rise in response to a high pressure ridge building north through the Rocky Mountain region.