Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
502 AM CST Tue Jan 2 2024 (Today through Wednesday afternoon) Clouds and low level moisture continue to increase this morning ahead of an upper trough that will move across the region today. A few snow flakes may mix in with the rain across the higher terrain, but due to ground and air temperatures above freezing no impacts are expected. Warmer conditions will be found across the Big Bend where more sun is expected. A weak cold front will follow behind the trough Wednesday, but there will be little change in airmass.
516 AM CST Tue Jan 2 2024 (Today and tonight) An upper level low located over the Arizona/Sonora border early this morning will move eastward to near El Paso by noon and then open up and eject across the South Plains/Permian Basin this afternoon and evening. Have trimmed PoPs some mainly across the northern third of the forecast area while maintaining the highest precip chances across the southern Rolling Plains. Progged soundings have come in warmer in addition to drier with any rain/snow mix looking very unlikely at the beginning of the event. Precip could linger into the early evening hours before moving to the east of the area with clearing skies then working in behind the departing trough.
530 AM CST Tue Jan 2 2024 (Today through Wednesday) Brief period of high pressure will be in place today with little in cloud cover and light winds.
A fairly typical early-January nighttime period has evolved here, with overcast skies, light westerly sfc flow, and temps near freezing. A weak midlevel disturbance will approach from the NW on Wednesday, with a weak cold front expected to drift SE through the OH Vly during the daytime. This will usher in slightly cooler air to the ILN FA by Wednesday night.
(Today through Wednesday Night) A large upper ridge will be over the southern Plains into the Midwest today with an upper low over the Desert Southwest. The upper ridge moves to the east coast tonight as the upper low moves into Texas. The upper low moves through Arkansas Wednesday. Another upper ridge moves into the Plains Wednesday night. High pressure will build into the state Wednesday afternoon and push the precipitation to the east.
This may be the highest totals since this system will be progressive moving through at a quick pace.
No major changes with the previous forecasts regarding the trough, with a further southerly track expected with most of the precipitation expected to remain along and south of the Red River. Currently, Tuesday high temperatures are expected to be in the upper 40s and low 50s, and while most of the clouds further north are expected to mix out with drier air and result in more clear conditions, more extensive or persistent cloud cover across the region could result in cooler high temperatures. Some special concern will be paid close attention in northwestern Oklahoma, where if fog becomes dense enough and overnight low temperatures in the 20s, freezing fog may develop.
Expect low stratus sky cover through much of today associated with the passing trough.
524 AM EST Tue Jan 2 2024 Dry weather is expected today as high pressure builds in from the southwest.
605 AM EST Tue Jan 2 2024 Dry weather is expected today as high pressure builds in from the southwest.
502 AM CST Tue Jan 2 2024 (Today and tonight) An upper level trough currently centered across Arizona will approach West Central Texas today, resulting in an increase in showers. As the trough approaches, surface moisture will slowly increase with dewpoints climbing into the mid 30s to mid 40s.
540 AM CST Tue Jan 2 2024 (Today through Wednesday Night) A large upper ridge will be over the southern Plains into the Midwest today with an upper low over the Desert Southwest. The upper ridge moves to the east coast tonight as the upper low moves into Texas. The upper low moves through Arkansas Wednesday. Another upper ridge moves into the Plains Wednesday night. High pressure will build into the state Wednesday afternoon and push the precipitation to the east.
Mostly non-measurable (flurries) but a small end threat (10-15%) that patchy freezing drizzle could be realized this afternoon NE IA/SW WI. Quick moving toughs/ridges shift west to east across the CONUS, with a potential storm system next Tue that may (or may not) impact the local forecast area. Current depth of saturation for today looks too shallow to support light pcpn creation, but if it can deepen, there could be enough weak lift to produce drizzle (no ice in cloud), which could be freezing.
429 AM CST Tue Jan 2 2024 (Today) Nighttime RGB imagery is showing slow thinning/erosion of the low overcast across the southern periphery of the clouds in north AL. High pressure at the surface now over eastern AR will weaken and shift east into the TN valley today.
Winds continue to shift out of the northwest on the backside of the trough as it moves through, seen over northwest SD. This high will push southeast as models indicate a back door cold front passing over the CWA this evening through early Wednesday morning, associated with another wave swinging down from the northwest. Through the day on Wednesday, a high pressure system moves in from the north with the UL ridge inching closer from the west. The colder air overspreads the entire CWA has it plunges south with the high as 850mb temps at 21Z Wednesday, ranges still from -4 to -8C, but over the entire CWA with the coldest area over northern and northeastern SD/west central MN.
Current temperatures are running a little cooler compared to 24 hours ago with readings mainly in the 40s across the Central Valley, with 20s and 30s in the mountains. A fast-moving low pressure system will move across interior NorCal this afternoon into early Wednesday bringing rain and mountain snow to the area.
520 AM EST Tue Jan 2 2024 Northwesterly flow brings lake enhanced snow showers early this morning, then high pressure Tuesday into Wednesday.
Over the lower Keys, the northerly (as opposed to northeast) flow was nil, resulting in perfect radiational cooling conditions. The zonal, yet fast, flow aloft is expected to continue today as a sheared but sharp trough at 850-500 mb drops over the Keys today.
602 AM EST Tue Jan 2 2024 High pressure will prevail with cool and dry weather through Wednesday.
(Today through Wednesday) Brief period of high pressure will be in place today with little in cloud cover and light winds.
Some low level moisture is trapped under that subsidence and that is why we are seeing the low clouds this morning. The overall clearing will be limited though as high clouds build in this afternoon/evening ahead of a short wave trough that will pass to our south tomorrow. Some cloud erosion may develop over our far western counties by daybreak, but it will likely be mid morning before the low clouds break up significantly. So, most of the area will start the day with temps in the low to mid 30s.
Winds will then become more south and southeast as low pressure develops in northeast New Mexico on Wednesday.
pdf High pressure will continue to build from the northwest through the day. North northeast flow around the high will keep cold advection going through the day though, keeping temperatures below normal.
1042 AM CST Tue Jan 2 2024 (Today and tonight) An upper level low located over the Arizona/Sonora border early this morning will move eastward to near El Paso by noon and then open up and eject across the South Plains/Permian Basin this afternoon and evening. Have trimmed PoPs some mainly across the northern third of the forecast area while maintaining the highest precip chances across the southern Rolling Plains. Progged soundings have come in warmer in addition to drier with any rain/snow mix looking very unlikely at the beginning of the event. Precip could linger into the early evening hours before moving to the east of the area with clearing skies then working in behind the departing trough.
Significant cloud cover will remain present, and the lower ceilings will nix any boundary layer mixing or direct solar heating. A thermal trough remains northwest of the area today, and 925mb temps rise about 1-2 deg C during the day with what insolation occurs at this level. Thermal trough is noted to be along the I-71 corridor towards 03Z tonight, which will then permit some WAA to begin eroding the lower cloud deck. A weak midlevel disturbance will approach from the NW on Wednesday, with a weak cold front expected to drift SE through the OH Vly during the daytime. This will usher in slightly cooler air to the ILN FA by Wednesday night.
342 PM EST Tue Jan 2 2024 High pressure will prevail with cool and dry weather through Wednesday.
(The rest of this afternoon ) Mid and high cloud cover continues to spread over the forecast area ahead of an upper low that is currently centered over southern NM. Light winds and clearing skies overnight will increase freezing fog potential across NE OK.
249 PM CST Tue Jan 2 2024 - Patchy light freezing drizzle may occur tonight along the Wisconsin/Illinois border in southwest/south-central WI, but confidence remains low. Issued 230 PM CST Tue Jan 2 2024 Tonight through Wednesday night: Freezing drizzle hasn't materialized this afternoon as mostly low clouds have occurred over southern WI, with some patchy fog southwest of Madison. Following the passage of the trough tonight, a secondary cold front should pass tomorrow afternoon, bringing in stronger CAA and flurries/light snow showers during the afternoon hours. Temperatures should then dive into the teens Wednesday night as skies clear and high pressure moves overheard.
(This evening through Wednesday Night) Upper-level trough across west Texas extending into the panhandle to continue to shift east this afternoon. As the trough approaches the ArkLaTex, conditions are forecast to deteriorate with high clouds forecast to overspread the region through sunset. Conditions to improve from west to east early Wednesday with skies forecast to clear in the wake of the departing trough and high temperatures forecast to climb into the low to mid 50s. Otherwise, near freezing overnight lows expected on Wednesday night.
This trough will bring increasing isentropic upglide over a cool airmass in place over the forecast area and nearby. Temperatures tonight are expected to bottom out in the low 30s to mid 30 along and north of Highway 84, mainly before midnight.
Dry, clear, and calm tonight with cold minimum temperatures as high pressure and a cold surface airmass remain across the region.
1007 AM EST Tue Jan 2 2024 Dry weather is expected today as high pressure builds in from the southwest.
(Tonight) High pressure remains centered over the Tennessee Valley, keeping dry and seasonable weather in place for the afternoon. Although low confidence, the main concern during the overnight hours will be the potential for freezing fog. Dewpoint depressions are expected to drop into the 0-2 degree range across portions of the TN Valley, and combined with subfreezing temperatures could lead to patchy freezing fog.
1013 AM EST Tue Jan 2 2024 High pressure will prevail with cool and dry weather through Wednesday.
pdf Weak high pressure will be located to the north Tonight, as an area of low pressure approaches from the west. The night will start off clear, but high cloudiness will increase during the overnight ahead of the low, especially for NE FL. With the high close to the region, winds will fall to near calm across SE GA. This will allow temperatures to fall to below freezing across SE GA and along the I10 corridor of NE FL.
1159 AM CST Tue Jan 2 2024 (Today and tonight) An upper level trough currently centered across Arizona will approach West Central Texas today, resulting in an increase in showers. As the trough approaches, surface moisture will slowly increase with dewpoints climbing into the mid 30s to mid 40s.
Fog and low stratus continue over most of the lower elevations west of a line from Mountain Home to Boise. A Pacific low pressure system approaching the coast will increase east winds across the Baker Valley and portions of the Snake Plain. Light snow will spread across SE Oregon and SW Idaho tonight and Wednesday and should weaken but not completely scour the inversion in the lower valleys.
(This evening through Wednesday) Mid to high clouds will generally clear from north to south this evening as a mid-level ridge builds in from the west. Parts of northern Oklahoma could see some dense fog, in addition to patchy freezing fog, but confidence in a Dense Fog Advisory is not high at this time. Southern Oklahoma may stay in the low to mid 30s, depending on how fast the cloud cover moves out.
The low clouds are being replaced by high level clouds ahead of a short wave trough that is over TX. This short wave trough will pass to our south tomorrow.
A thin cirrus shield has started to move in as a ridge continues to build east over the Mid-South.
1124 AM CST Tue Jan 2 2024 (Today through Wednesday afternoon) Clouds and low level moisture continue to increase this morning ahead of an upper trough that will move across the region today. A few snow flakes may mix in with the rain across the higher terrain, but due to ground and air temperatures above freezing no impacts are expected. Warmer conditions will be found across the Big Bend where more sun is expected. A weak cold front will follow behind the trough Wednesday, but there will be little change in airmass.
- Cooler temperatures, which are still near to slightly above average, are expected on Wednesday and continuing into the weekend.
(This afternoon through Wednesday night) Upper level low is progressing across the area this afternoon and bringing some light rain and plenty of cloud cover to southeast New Mexico and the Permian Basin. Lows dip near or below freezing across much of the Permian Basin and into the mid to upper 20s for southeast New Mexico and the higher elevations. With less clouds and more sun, expect temperatures to be a few to several degrees warmer for Wednesday with highs in the mid to upper 50s north of I-10 and low to mid 60s for areas to the south.
Radar showing some light reflectivities this afternoon which could be mix of -fzdz and -sn though half of the forecast area has temps above freezing, so fzdz may be just dz in places. A cold front will slip down from Canada this evening bringing light snowfall.
1242 PM EST Tue Jan 2 2024 High pressure will prevail with cool and dry weather through Wednesday.
Radiational cooling brought protected areas on the larger islands down to the lower 50s overnight, with the lowest temperature recorded being 50 degrees on Big Pine. A weak cold front is currently pushing through South Florida. This front is progged to move through the forecast area later today, however, it will not be noticeable due to the already cooler temperatures and northerly winds. High pressure across the Southeast will build in behind the front, and a subtle wind increase is expected this afternoon and evening. From synopsis, gentle northerly breezes this afternoon and tonight will be slow to shift to the east southeast Wednesday, but will shift sharply to the southeast then southwest Wednesday night as low pressure takes shape over the northern Gulf of Mexico.
128 PM EST Tue Jan 2 2024 Dry weather is expected today as high pressure builds in from the southwest.
Ridging building in today will keep skies mostly sunny with temperatures getting into the lower 40s. Tonight will see some cooler air at the surface back in from the northeast. Cloud cover associated with this system, as well as the cooler surface air it pulls in from the northeast, will hold temperatures down in the 30s for highs tomorrow. These temperatures while cooler, will be near seasonal values for our area in early January.
We saw the first one of these systems this morning as it helped to reinforce the cooler weather over the area. For our Wednesday we will be in between systems as we enjoy a cooler and sunny day across the area.
Overnight temperature in the lower to middle 30s. Rainfall will be ongoing Wednesday as the low pressure system moves along the Gulf coastline. Afternoon temperatures will be on the cooler side as clouds/rainfall keep highs in the upper 40s to near 50 degrees.
Split flow in the mid to upper levels will continue, which will aid in keeping the closed low to our south.
This has allowed areas that have seen more sunshine (such as the Saginaw Valley) to climb 3-5 degrees warmer than those who have remained mostly cloudy thus far (such as the Ohio border area). As a result, drizzle would be the favored p-type with areas of freezing drizzle a possibility as temps fall to at or just below 32F over the course of the night. A second, slightly stronger mid-level trough tracks into the Great Lakes Wednesday eventually drawing a cold front into the area latter half of the day. Minimal accumulations (only a couple tenths at most) expected given the light potential intensities and temps not falling below freezing until after sunset.
(This evening through Wednesday) The upper low is east of El Paso early this afternoon, over the NM/TX border and moving slowly east. In an area of stronger lift ahead of this low, showers and widely scattered thunderstorms are overspreading northern and eastern parts of our area. The aforementioned low is forecast to open into a trough as the system moves across West Texas later this afternoon. The trough will move east across our area and into central Texas later tonight. Rain chances will shut off roughly between 6 PM and Midnight, as the trough axis shifts east across our area. The upper trough to our east will move across the lower Mississippi Valley, and an upstream trough will deepen over the western CONUS with a closed low north of Las Vegas by evening.
(Tonight through Wednesday night) Key Messages: - Rain chances taper off after midnight The approaching front will push the coastal trough eastward this evening and filter in drier air in its wake. Scattered showers are expected to continue across the region through midnight tonight before as the cold front pushes through.
Cooler air has been filling into the area today in the wake of the recent cold front, with temperatures already dropping into the 40s over the the Nature Coast as of 7 PM.
A well defined cold front is approaching the coast of Northern California this afternoon. Similar amounts are expected through the afternoon- evening hours, before the cold front passes.
558 PM CST Tue Jan 2 2024 (The rest of this afternoon ) Mid and high cloud cover continues to spread over the forecast area ahead of an upper low that is currently centered over southern NM. Light winds and clearing skies overnight will increase freezing fog potential across NE OK.
The first will bring a chance for valley rain and mountain snow showers Wednesday night along with much cooler temperatures.
The lingering cloud cover across the north/east tomorrow will result in temperatures only climbing into the low to mid 50s, whereas highs should be about 10 degrees warmer where clouds can clear across the south and west.
Freezing drizzle that was in southern Manitoba earlier has moved into far NW MN with freezing drizzle from the Hallock/Drayton ND area east thru Roseau, Warroad, Baudette, Red Lake, Middle River MN. Split flow in the mid to upper levels will continue, which will aid in keeping the closed low to our south.
547 PM CST Tue Jan 2 2024 (This afternoon through Wednesday night) Upper level low is progressing across the area this afternoon and bringing some light rain and plenty of cloud cover to southeast New Mexico and the Permian Basin. Lows dip near or below freezing across much of the Permian Basin and into the mid to upper 20s for southeast New Mexico and the higher elevations. With less clouds and more sun, expect temperatures to be a few to several degrees warmer for Wednesday with highs in the mid to upper 50s north of I-10 and low to mid 60s for areas to the south.
325 PM CST Tue Jan 2 2024 - Despite an unfavorable wind direction, fog development is possible overnight, with the highest chances along and east of Highway 281.
312 PM MST Tue Jan 2 2024 High pressure will remain over the region and provide dry conditions for the next 24 hours, but temperatures inversions will maintain colder temperatures and daily occurrences of patchy fog, mostly for southwest valleys and the Milk River valley.
Using the latest CONSShort as a baseline, anticipating temperatures to drop into the low 40s across deep east Texas, with the best chances of dropping into the 30s north and east into Arkansas. /26/ (This evening through Wednesday Night) Upper-level trough across west Texas extending into the panhandle to continue to shift east this afternoon. As the trough approaches the ArkLaTex, conditions are forecast to deteriorate with high clouds forecast to overspread the region through sunset. Conditions to improve from west to east early Wednesday with skies forecast to clear in the wake of the departing trough and high temperatures forecast to climb into the low to mid 50s. Otherwise, near freezing overnight lows expected on Wednesday night.
Showers continue while high mountain snow increases this evening as a cold front moves into Northwest California.
With an influx of cloud cover expected, there is a lower chance (40%) for fog or stratus in the Highway 12 corridor between Orofino and Harpster.
256 PM MST Tue Jan 2 2024 Low stratus and dense freezing fog have ended across the region and so the Dense Fog Advisory has been cancelled. Upper ridging will continue to slide further east through the midweek. Ensembles then point to a split flow pattern for late in the week with the northern stream over NE Montana and a trough/closed low broadly over the western U.
The chance for some patchy (freezing) drizzle tonight remains low confidence at this time.
525 PM CST Tue Jan 2 2024 (This evening through Wednesday Night) Upper-level trough across west Texas extending into the panhandle to continue to shift east this afternoon. As the trough approaches the ArkLaTex, conditions are forecast to deteriorate with high clouds forecast to overspread the region through sunset. Conditions to improve from west to east early Wednesday with skies forecast to clear in the wake of the departing trough and high temperatures forecast to climb into the low to mid 50s. Otherwise, near freezing overnight lows expected on Wednesday night.
459 PM MST Tue Jan 2 2024 Late afternoon update: Based on satellite imagery and model data for visibility and cloud cover, confidence has increased for impacts from dense freezing fog tonight through tomorrow morning. ---BMickelson Previous discussion: Low stratus and dense freezing fog have ended across the region and so the Dense Fog Advisory has been cancelled. Upper ridging will continue to slide further east through the midweek. Ensembles then point to a split flow pattern for late in the week with the northern stream over NE Montana and a trough/closed low broadly over the western U.
530 PM CST Tue Jan 2 2024 (This evening through Wednesday) The upper low is east of El Paso early this afternoon, over the NM/TX border and moving slowly east. In an area of stronger lift ahead of this low, showers and widely scattered thunderstorms are overspreading northern and eastern parts of our area. The aforementioned low is forecast to open into a trough as the system moves across West Texas later this afternoon. The trough will move east across our area and into central Texas later tonight. Rain chances will shut off roughly between 6 PM and Midnight, as the trough axis shifts east across our area. The upper trough to our east will move across the lower Mississippi Valley, and an upstream trough will deepen over the western CONUS with a closed low north of Las Vegas by evening.
937 PM EST Tue Jan 2 2024 High pressure centered south of the area overnight will get pushed away from the region as a cold front approaches.