Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Temperatures will trend slightly warmer compared to the last few days with plenty of solar heating towards the afternoon. By Tuesday night, we'll have mostly clear skies with temperatures dropping down into the lower and mid 30's west of the Cascades and lower 20's east of the Cascades. The main concern here is temperatures approaching freezing in valleys west of the Cascades, although the duration of freeze should be fairly brief. /Issued 240 PM PDT Mon May 6 2024/ Upper level ridging will continue to build into the region from the eastern Pacific on Wednesday, with a thermal trough developing over California and far southwestern Oregon.
Regardless, as it reconsolidates nearer to Iowa it will renew warm air advection and push an effective warm front from Missouri up into southern or central Iowa. For example, the NAM is considerably further west with the low and associated threat, while the GFS is further east.
624 AM CDT Tue May 7 2024 (Today and tonight) A stacked cyclone will loiter over the western Dakotas today while our area sits under cyclonic westerly flow. NBM struggled with highs yesterday and appears to be suffering the same bias today, so opted for its warmer 75th percentile which is closer to MOS. Cyclogenesis in southeast CO meanwhile will depart for northern OK by daybreak and in the process drag a weak cold front into our northern zones after midnight.
North winds behind the trough/front will be quite light for western KS normals, and look to average about 10-13 mph through the overnight. Tuesday nightâs front will impact the highs on Wednesday. Some of the MOS or climate influenced output favor the warmer solutions, but the models themselves area pointing to the slightly cooler outcome.
Upper level support arrives later this afternoon in the form of a lobe of vorticity pivoting around the upper level low to our west, which should generate enough lift to generate scattered showers & thunderstorms along & ahead of the stalled-out surface boundary.
A cold front currently situated from central TX through the Missouri Valley will stall before reaching our area today. The marginal severe threat will be focused mainly north of I-20 where coverage is expected to be greater and where the low level jet will be somewhat stronger.
By the weekend, a flat ridge will push from the Pacific Northwest across the northern Rockies. Still looking at winds coming up a bit over the ridge tops after sunrise, so will continue with the warning.
Otherwise, it will remain very warm and humid as the afternoon highs, which top out within the upper 80s and 90s only fall into the low to mid 70s overnight. The dryline advances eastward into Wednesday afternoon and should get close to the highway 281 corridor. The greater forcing along with severe potential looks to maintain just to the northeast of our CWA within the FWD and HGX CWA's, where SPC is pinpointing the higher risk level. Another warm and humid night is otherwise expected Wednesday night with the overnight lows ranging from the mid to upper 60s over the Hill Country to the low to mid 70s elsewhere.
This is due to prolonged southerly surface winds maintaining moist air inflow combined with mostly wet antecedent soils downstream, keeping dew points in the lower 70s. Temperature maximums/minimums will reach the lower 90s/lower 70s as a result.
- Mostly dry for the remainder of the week with seasonable temps in the low 70s, heating up to 80s this weekend. Broad westerly flow aloft per water vapor imagery across the central and south central CONUS this afternoon with the upper low center rotating through the Dakotas. The Pacific cold front that passed through last evening is currently located over western MO.
1205 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024 (Today and tonight) A stacked cyclone will loiter over the western Dakotas today while our area sits under cyclonic westerly flow. NBM struggled with highs yesterday and appears to be suffering the same bias today, so opted for its warmer 75th percentile which is closer to MOS. Cyclogenesis in southeast CO meanwhile will depart for northern OK by daybreak and in the process drag a weak cold front into our northern zones after midnight.
- Wednesday afternoon severe event continues to show the highest probability for damaging winds, large hail, and tornadoes focusing along and south of the I-70 corridor. Another round of strong to severe convection is expected tomorrow afternoon into tomorrow evening as mid level troughing and southwest flow continues. Temps will remain on the warmer side tonight and tomorrow but become slightly cooler tomorrow night. Auten As the low pressure pulls away, an inverted trough will rotate through northern IL with showers across northern parts of the CWA. The mid level trough will also move through Thur night, but showers will have waned at that point.
1101 AM EDT Tue May 7 2024 High pressure builds into the area today along with warm daytime temperatures. Weak high pressure settles over the area today with light winds, mostly sunny skies and temperatures mainly in the 70s. Our stretch of warm and fair weather ends tonight as low pressure approaches from the west and a warm front sharpens up to our south.
(This evening through Wednesday night) Today the main upper trough has ejected eastward and zonal flow has taken its place across the region. The southern half will see highs in the lower 80's, and the northern zones will see highs drop to the 70's.
1241 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024 (The rest of today) Quiet and pleasant weather will prevail today under sunny/mostly sunny skies as surface ridging shifts into eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas by this afternoon. Afternoon high temperatures are forecast to reach the low-mid 80s, warmest temperatures south of the I-40 corridor.
- A transition to warmer and drier weather is expected for the end of the work week and into the weekend. Vertically stacked low pressure is centered over south central North Dakota and north central South Dakota at this time. Low pressure may meander a bit further north through the remainder of the day today before retrograding back to the south. That said, with relatively cold air aloft, it wouldn't be entirely surprising if a few cold air funnels don't develop near the low this afternoon, while a landspout or two isn't entirely out of the question either. Low pressure will finally begin to speed up and propagate to the southeast Wednesday through Wednesday night.
1232 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024 - Highs today in the low 70s with a chance (15-25%) for showers this evening across southeastern portions of the area.
These will continue to propagate north/northwest as the front wraps around the upper low to the southwest centered over the central ND/SD border. A breakdown of the upper low over the next 2 days will see continued cloud cover with periodic shower chances through Wednesday as the low meanders south with weak upper flow to move it along. A drier period begins after this round moves out with eastern ridging forming atop a developing cutoff low in desert SW arching into the northern plains by late week.
On Wednesday, weak offshore flow will bring a warmer day to the valleys along with breezy northeast winds in the mountain passes and the deserts.
1239 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024 A cold front currently situated from central TX through the Missouri Valley will stall before reaching our area today. The marginal severe threat will be focused mainly north of I-20 where coverage is expected to be greater and where the low level jet will be somewhat stronger.
1256 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024 As of 10:45 AM today, temperatures are already rising into the lower 80s under mostly cloudy skies. Later this afternoon, temperature maximums will approach the lower 90s as cloud coverage thins to partly cloudy.
- After the big storm system's passage, a markedly cooler and drier air mass will spread over the region, returning more Spring-like temperatures with highs generally in the 70s and refreshingly lower humidity for the week's end. The models all suggest the prime axis of this development will be across the Ohio Valley, along/ahead of the approaching cold front, with increasing pops across our north and east. The parent long wave trof driving this entire system rotates across the FA thereafter, transitioning our almost summer-like warmth/humidity to a significantly cooler/drier air mass by week's end.
Broad upper troughing exists over the northern Plains.
On Wednesday, an upper low will centered be over South Dakota/ Nebraska, with a trough elongating west-southwest into the Great Basin. For a large part of our area south of I-20, expect highs to be in the lower to mid 90s, with a few upper 90s in some of the Concho Valley and the Northwest Hill Country around Junction.
947 AM MDT Tue May 7 2024 Northwesterly flow prevails across the region today on the western edge of a stalled upper low over the Northern Plains.
1236 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024 (Today through Wednesday) Key Messages: â¶ There's a moderate to major risk for heat related illness Tuesday and Wednesday â¶ There's a Moderate Risk for Rip currents through Wednesday morning The region will be under a zonal flow aloft with a mid-level low pressure system over the northern Plains and a mid-level high over western Mexico. WAA in the lower to mid levels will combine with humid conditions near the surface resulting in a Moderate to a Major risk of heat related impacts across the region Tuesday and Wednesday, According to the NWS Heat Risk tool. Have opted to let the Coastal Flood Advisory and the High Rip Current Risk to expire this morning as swell heights/periods have decreased to around 3 ft and 7 seconds respectively.
330 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024 - Low pressure continues to spin over the region tonight through Wednesday before finally departing Wednesday night. Additional shower/thunderstorm chances (20-40%) on Wednesday in associated with this low pressure.
This will allow moisture to attempt to return northward into the area overnight but veering surface winds will only allow it to make it into central and eastern portions of the area before a cold front begins to sweep through Wednesday morning.
- Cooler with chances for showers later this week into the weekend.
320 PM EDT Tue May 7 2024 Sunny and dry weather expected this afternoon but a warm front moving in tonight brings the threat for showers and thunderstorms after midnight. Tomorrow, a cold front moves through with the threat for a few isolated strong storms in the late morning and early afternoon. Cooler and showery weather is expected late week into the weekend. Tonight, a warm front lifts in with clouds increasing as well as a threat for some rain showers and elevated thunderstorms. Wednesday night is looking cooler with a cold front dropping south and skies clearing and dry air advecting in at lower levels of the atmosphere.
Minimal changes to the pattern for the next couple of days as high pressure over the western Atlantic remains in control. Ridging aloft will also continue to build over the area today and tomorrow, supporting the unseasonably warm temperatures and lack of rain.
(The rest of today) Quiet and pleasant weather will prevail today under sunny/mostly sunny skies as surface ridging shifts into eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas by this afternoon. Afternoon high temperatures are forecast to reach the low-mid 80s, warmest temperatures south of the I-40 corridor.
- Drier and cooler conditions for late week and weekend. Models however do quickly merge these developing storms into a line as they move across southern Missouri during the morning hours as the low level jet weakens and veers. The low level shear looks to be weaker with surface winds out of the southwest. This will lead to high chances of cooler temperatures and drier conditions.
At the surface, high pressure over the eastern Gulf of Mexico will continue to provide southerly flow. Low pressure across the Sierra Madre will lead to an increased pressure gradient and slightly increased winds along the coast east afternoon. For Wednesday, temperatures are expected to be warmer with highs rising into the 90s and low triple digits across the region. Heat indices will rise to between 104 degrees and 113 degrees across the entire CWA away from the Island with the highest heat indices along the I-69C corridor.
Water vapor imagery currently shows an upper low rotating across the Northern Plains with one of the main vort lobes extending from the Northern Intermountain into the Central Rockies. At the surface, cold front extends from northern MO into far eastern OK. Cold front should push back to the southeast by the early afternoon hours with the more substantial surface convection expected southeast of the forecast area. There is good agreement between the GFS and ECMWF in the upper low over the Northern Plains shearing out with some of the upper energy getting cutoff across the Great Basin by Thu and remaining there through at least Fri. Moisture advection will occur across southeast Kansas late tonight ahead of a weak cold front.
On Wednesday, weak offshore flow will bring a warmer day to the valleys along with breezy northeast winds to the mountains and deserts.
Breezy conditions have begun to develop across western Montana and north central Idaho this afternoon in response to a tightening pressure gradient as low pressure moves through eastern Montana. Tonight, wrap-around precipitation from the low pressure system in eastern Montana will move across the Continental Divide into western Montana and north central Idaho. This will bring heavy, wet snow to the highest terrain along the Continental Divide, where a foot of snow or more is not out of the question. In addition, snow will likely fall into the lower elevations of southwest Montana, such as Anaconda and Butte.
238 PM EDT Tue May 7 2024 Sunny and dry weather expected this afternoon but a warm front moving in tonight brings the threat for showers and thunderstorms after midnight. Tomorrow, a cold front moves through with the threat for a few isolated strong storms in the late morning and early afternoon. Cooler and showery weather is expected late week into the weekend. Tonight, a warm front lifts in with clouds increasing as well as a threat for some rain showers and elevated thunderstorms. Wednesday night is looking cooler with a cold front dropping south and skies clearing and dry air advecting in at lower levels of the atmosphere.
An expansive area of high pressure extending across the western North Atlantic has maintained moderate breezes today, which has attempted to keep some of the humidity at bay.
(Tonight) A frontal boundary that lingers across the higher terrain of southeast Oklahoma is forecast to surge back to the north overnight as a warm front with an area of low pressure moving into northern Osage County in northeast Oklahoma. There is the potential for isolated to scattered storms to develop late tonight to the north of the warm front across northeast Oklahoma as isentropic lift increases across the area. (Wednesday through Tuesday) Scattered thunderstorms are likely to continue Wednesday morning in the vicinity of the warm front and the advancing cold front across northeast Oklahoma into northwest Arkansas. Additional thunderstorms are anticipated through the day in the vicinity of the cold front as it moves through the the remainder of eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas. The storm potential comes to an end Wednesday evening as the cold front exits the region.
437 PM EDT Tue May 7 2024 High pressure will crest over the area tonight.
Another chilly night is in store tonight into Wednesday morning with near to sub freezing temperatures. Mostly clear skies will give way to excellent radiational cooling tonight, allowing near-to-sub-freezing temperatures to persist in many colder valleys, especially the Sierra. A backdoor cold front will pass across the region Wednesday morning, bringing northeasterly flow and the coolest temperatures of the week to the area. Temperatures will rebound through the end of the week as the upper-level trough that brought us the chillier weather slowly moves east over the Rockies/Intermountain West and an upper-level ridge builds over the northeastern Pacific.
(The rest of tonight) Quiet weather is likely for most of the night, although potential for early morning showers and thunderstorms ahead of an approaching cold front remains toward day break in northeast Oklahoma. (Wednesday through Tuesday) Scattered thunderstorms are likely to continue Wednesday morning in the vicinity of the warm front and the advancing cold front across northeast Oklahoma into northwest Arkansas. Additional thunderstorms are anticipated through the day in the vicinity of the cold front as it moves through the remainder of eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas. The storm potential comes to an end Wednesday evening as the cold front exits the region.
Currently a cold front has stalled just northeast of our area. Overnight low temperatures will be in the the low to mid 70s and winds to be southerly at 5 to 10 mph.
741 PM EDT Tue May 7 2024 - A warm front will drift northeast across the area this evening with scattered showers and a possible thunderstorm across southern PA. - Low pressure moves just north of the area tonight into Wednesday morning, brining showers and thunderstorms.
Slightly cooler than average temperatures are forecast through the remainder of the week along with typical springtime breezy winds. Models show an very elongated, positively tilted trough stretching from the Central Plains through Arizona later this week. As the original low pressure area pushes eastward, a cutoff low wants to develop over the state, leading to cooler temperatures and unsettled conditions. , a ridge sets up our north, created a Rex Block pattern.
Water vapor imagery currently shows an upper low rotating across the Northern Plains with one of the main vort lobes extending from the Northern Intermountain into the Central Rockies. At the surface, cold front extends from northern MO into far eastern OK. Cold front should push back to the southeast by the early afternoon hours with the more substantial surface convection expected southeast of the forecast area. There is good agreement between the GFS and ECMWF in the upper low over the Northern Plains shearing out with some of the upper energy getting cutoff across the Great Basin by Thu and remaining there through at least Fri. Main concern this period is winds shifting with the passing of a weak cold front.
Will keep the High Wind Warning going for the next hour since a few wind reports of 60 mph have been observed since 4 PM, but will likely expire the Warning outside of the wind prone areas on time, at 9:00 PM local. Temperatures near or a little below freezing are expected, especially along the I-80 corridor tonight and early Wednesday morning.
603 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024 - Low pressure continues to spin over the region tonight through Wednesday before finally departing Wednesday night. Additional shower/thunderstorm chances (20-40%) on Wednesday in associated with this low pressure.
Currently - An elongated Atlantic Ridge stretching westward across Florida and the Gulf of Mexico is driving gentle easterly breezes across the Keys this evening. Meanwhile, mid to upper level ridging reaching north northeastward through the Gulf of Mexico is slowly shifting eastward closer to our area. This evenings sounding indicated a good amount of backing through the lower levels and some inhibition and drier air between roughly 900 and 750 mb. Short Term Update - Robust lower level ridging will remain across Florida. Ridging will become increasingly dominant through the mid and upper levels. A ridge across Florida will maintain gentle to moderate breezes on Keys waters through the overnight period.
A building expansive Pacific ridge of high pressure will bring quickly warming temperatures and strengthening N to NE winds. With increasing subsidence from the strengthening high pressure offshore,the clearing of skies will continue to trend and will promote more frost development overnight. The expansive Pacific ridge will continue amplifying today, and will persist through late in the week. Outside of the immediate coast, temperatures will be noticeably warmer today for most.
Adjustments made to the high wind warning. With temperatures near freezing though, the snow will melt a bit at the lower elevations, limiting snow accumulations. With a strong area of low pressure to our east, strong northwest winds will continue. Elsewhere, the high wind warning was expanded along the I-15 corridor from Great Falls to Conrad as a period of strong winds are expected from now through late tonight.
629 PM MDT Tue May 7 2024 - High Fire Danger will also continue across portions of the area through this evening then return on Wednesday with one more critical fire weather day before cooler and wetter conditions move in.
- Cooler and mainly dry for Wednesday, with high fire danger once again in the San Luis Valley.
621 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024 (This evening through Wednesday night) Today the main upper trough has ejected eastward and zonal flow has taken its place across the region. The southern half will see highs in the lower 80's, and the northern zones will see highs drop to the 70's.
303 PM PDT Tue May 7 2024 A weak system will bring light rain and cloudy conditions across north Idaho and far eastern Washington on Wednesday as an upper level ridge builds into the region from the west. This will bring warmer and drier weather through the weekend. Tonight and Wednesday: The Low from the past few days is East of the Inland Northwest. As the Low slides farther East, it will push a weak band of showers North to South over these areas. The lows will be in the 30Â°s to low 40Â°s. the highs will be in the upper 50Â°s and low 70Â°s.
- A transition to warmer and drier weather is expected for the end of the work week and into the weekend. As the evening continues on, the threat will continue to diminish given the low level lapse rates/instability will be on the decrease as we cool. Vertically stacked low pressure is centered over south central North Dakota and north central South Dakota at this time. Low pressure may meander a bit further north through the remainder of the day today before retrograding back to the south. That said, with relatively cold air aloft, it wouldn't be entirely surprising if a few cold air funnels don't develop near the low this afternoon, while a landspout or two isn't entirely out of the question either. Low pressure will finally begin to speed up and propagate to the southeast Wednesday through Wednesday night.
357 PM PDT Tue May 7 2024 A weak system will bring light rain and cloudy conditions across north Idaho and far eastern Washington on Wednesday as an upper level ridge builds into the region from the west. This will bring warmer and drier weather through the weekend. Tonight and Wednesday: The Low from the past few days is East of the Inland Northwest. As the Low slides farther East, it will push a weak band of showers North to South over these areas. The lows will be in the 30Â°s to low 40Â°s. the highs will be in the upper 50Â°s and low 70Â°s.
A strong pressure gradient remains over the Central High Plains this afternoon, thanks to a closed upper low over the Dakotas, and an upper ridge over the Tri-State area. Heading into Wednesday, the closed low at 500mb drops back into Central Nebraska and the panhandle. The southern split puts an upper trough over the western CONUS. The northern split of the trough sets up over the Dakotas and Nebraska/Kansas.
As the upper level low across the north-central CONUS continues to weaken and slide south, weak and short-lived isentropic lift with the remaining moisture on the backside of the upper level low will be enough for snow showers across the mountains with accumulating snowfall above 7500 ft elevation beginning later this morning. We are still looking at a gradual warming trend as we transition into a ridging pattern toward the end of the week. While the closed low continues to circulate over the SW CONUS, upper- level ridging moves into southeast Wyoming and western Nebraska, increasing temperatures and drying conditions.