Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
415 AM EST Mon Dec 23 2024 A cold front will approach the region today and tonight, dissipating on Tuesday as high pressure builds to the north.
942 AM EST Mon Dec 23 2024 - Brief light freezing rain may cause slippery roads near and north of the Michigan border into mid afternoon.
Elongated surface ridging is present stretching SWD from ME to the Carolinas and SWWD back into the Gulf Coast States. This surface ridging will begin to weaken as a low pressure system moves EWD across the Great Lakes pushing the ridge center into the WRN Atlantic by tonight.
Today we will be under short wave ridging with increasing clouds due to an incoming trough. Increasing clouds will be seen ahead of another incoming trough.
A transient ridge will shift overhead late Monday into early Tuesday before the next wave moves inland and precipitation overspreads eastern Idaho late Tuesday.
506 AM CST Mon Dec 23 2024 - Warmer temperatures are expected today above normal temperatures are expected through the weekend.
In the low levels we can see clouds creeping in from the east. In addition, this high is also maintaining our northeast winds this hour. Meanwhile, aloft a complex trough extends from Texas southwestward across Mexico and across Baja California. Despite the influx of moisture and the aforementioned trough to the west, the KBYX radar continues to show no precipitation echoes. Lastly, the combination of northeasterly winds and clouds is keeping temperatures this hour in the mid to upper 60s with dew points in the lower 60s. At the surface a coastal trough will develop through the day off the coast of of the Carolinas and extend south off the east coast of Florida. Meanwhile, the aforementioned complex upper level trough will fracture into two pieces with a more energetic polar jet carrying a potnent low across the Lower Mississippi Valley.
652 AM CST Mon Dec 23 2024 (Monday through Tuesday Night) High pressure to shift east today allowing for return southerly flow and increased moisture advection areawide. Convection to continue overnight with a few isolated thunderstorms possible near daybreak Tuesday across the I-30 corridor as an upper-trough moving east across the Texas intercepts the frontal boundary resulting in modest height falls that will lead to increased instability areawide.
649 AM EST Mon Dec 23 2024 A cold front will approach the region today and tonight, dissipating on Tuesday as high pressure builds to the north.
224 AM MST Mon Dec 23 2024 KEY MESSAGES: - Freezing fog this morning along the Hi-Line. A warm upper ridge will be the main weather player through early this week making for warm temperatures (especially just off the surface). The upper ridge flattens somewhat on Christmas Day with another disturbance pushing through, however with this disturbance most of the energy stays well to the south.
606 AM EST Mon Dec 23 2024 - Brief light freezing rain is expected to cause slippery roads near and north of the Michigan border from late morning into mid afternoon.
930 AM EST Mon Dec 23 2024 A cold front will approach the region today and tonight, dissipating on Tuesday as high pressure builds to the north.
A dry and mild Monday is in store as transient high pressure overspreads the region. This storm will likely be bimodal with its precipitation traits: 1) A period of steadier rain/snow with higher snow levels and heavy embedded showers along/ahead of a cold front, and 2) a window of showery, hit-or-miss type rain/snow with lower snow levels once the cold front has passed. The second phase of this storm will likely occur in the late morning and afternoon once the cold front passes through.
High pressure will hold across the area today with northeast to east winds bringing some Atlantic moisture westward leading to scattered to broken stratocumulus at times. High pressure will hold over the waters through the period and although winds may be a bit elevated, they are expected to remain below cautionary levels.
Drizzle is possible on Christmas Day, but temps will be above freezing.
A slight weakness in that ridge over the Atlantic coast of central Florida could allow for a localized area of low pressure to develop off the Space Coast and move northward through Tuesday.
pdf With a persistent coastal trough and coastal low just offshore and the system hanging in overnight will see low ceilings and a few showers for the coastal areas overnight.
227 PM EST Mon Dec 23 2024 - The risk of freezing rain has ended as temperatures are now at or above freezing.
1110 AM CST Mon Dec 23 2024 - Warmer temperatures are expected today above normal temperatures are expected through the weekend.
1254 PM EST Mon Dec 23 2024 A cold front will approach the region today and tonight, dissipating on Tuesday as high pressure builds to the north.
MM/25 (Now through Tuesday) Weak westerly to southwesterly flow aloft persists through this afternoon before a weak upper trough transits the forecast area late tonight into Tuesday morning. We return to southwest flow aloft in advance of the next trough by Tuesday evening. Highs top out in the lower 60's today, becoming middle to upper 60's for Tuesday afternoon. Temperatures tonight will fall to near freezing over the far interior, with upper 30's to near 40 along the coast. Temperatures will be warmer tomorrow night owing to increased cloud cover, only falling to near 40 over the far interior and middle to upper 40's nearer the coast. Thanks to dry air remaining over the region and how weak the initial upper trough is, no precipitation is forecast through Tuesday night across the forecast area.
A s/wv ridge will push onshore over SOCAL today and move through Arizona tonight and Tuesday. Our cloud cover from the surprisingly strong trough last night has now exited the area, with thinner high clouds moving in from our west. Fast moving upper level ridge moves through today and tomorrow keeping temperatures elevated well above average, but this will come to an end soon.
230 PM EST Mon Dec 23 2024 An area of low pressure off the east coast of Florida will move northward toward the area tonight. The low will be east of Cape Fear Tuesday then move farther offshore. The low will lead to increasing clouds and rain chances tonight and continuing into Tuesday. Rain chances will be low for the remainder of the week as high pressure from the north lingers across the area.
High pressure will begin to build in aloft over the region behind the system with improving conditions this afternoon and overnight. The next weather-maker is slated to arrive later Tuesday as a splitting trough moves into the northern Rockies.
1155 AM CST Mon Dec 23 2024 - Chances for freezing drizzle are decreasing by the hour. - A warming trend will occur this week with highs in the low to mid 30s by Christmas and near 40 possible by later in the week. Additionally, onset time of any precipitation continues to be delayed, lessening the chance for freezing drizzle. The longer it takes for precip to initiate, the lesser the chance for freezing drizzle. Where the stratus deck remains, temperatures will be slightly warmer and fog will be less prevalent. This means lows in the teens in western MN and in the low 20s in eastern MN and western WI.
(Tonight through Tuesday night) Our region will be under the influence of zonal flow aloft ahead of a developing trough extending southward across the Plains with a developing low near the TX/OK border. The low will dig further southeast Tuesday night before lifting northeast during the long- term period. This weak cold front will approach our CWA Christmas morning. Highs over the next two days will generally range in the mid 70s near the coast to the low to mid 80s across the Brush Country/Rio Grande Plains. Overnight lows ranging in the 60s across the region tonight will be a few degrees cooler tomorrow night.
1141 AM CST Mon Dec 23 2024 Clouds are increasing across the Arklatex and western portions of the Four State region as lower tropospheric theta e advection ramps up in advance low pressure and upper level trough development in the vicinity of the area later tonight into tomorrow. /50/ (Monday through Tuesday Night) High pressure to shift east today allowing for return southerly flow and increased moisture advection areawide. Convection to continue overnight with a few isolated thunderstorms possible near daybreak Tuesday across the I-30 corridor as an upper-trough moving east across the Texas intercepts the frontal boundary resulting in modest height falls that will lead to increased instability areawide.
Otherwise, expect mainly dry conditions as an 850 mb ridge axis shifts east across the mid Ohio Valley. While the temperature and moisture gradients broaden, upper ridging will build across the area.
Current upper flow shows broad troughing over the middle of the nation with quasi-zonal in place over the mid south.
Pattern/synopsis: Low pressure pushing across southern WI is weakening. Deeper moisture is long gone, but the low levels remain moist. At some point as we head into January, a trough likely reforms across the region per long range guidance. The good news is that it should stay just cool enough through Christmas to result in a white Christmas across a majority of northern Michigan! Low pressure will weaken as it crosses lower MI late today.
High pressure along the Mid-Atlantic coast will drift east out into the western Atlantic Ocean over the next couple of day with a weak area of low pressure developing off the southeast U.
1226 PM EST Mon Dec 23 2024 - Brief light freezing rain may cause slippery roads near and north of the Michigan border into mid afternoon.
1130 AM CST Mon Dec 23 2024 (Today through Tuesday) Key Messages: - Fog potential returns tonight Mid to upper-level trough will transition into the Southern Plains through the short-term period, while energy associated to it swings by our area. The low-level flow is progged to strengthen through Tuesday allowing for moisture increase across the region, with PWATs rising to around 1. Otherwise, temperatures will be warm with highs ranging from the low to mid 70s along the coast to the low 80s out west today, and mostly in the lower 80s on Tuesday.
High pressure centered over the northeastern United States reaches southwest down the spine of the Appalachians to near the mouth of the Mississippi. A coastal trough will develop east of Florida and the Carolinas over the next couple of days.
A broad, shallow mid-level trough lies over the southern plains this afternoon. The low level flow is from the south to southeast bringing a warmer, moister airmass to South-Central Texas. Temperatures and dewpoints are 5-10 degrees warmer than 24 hours ago. There is a cold front moving through the northern Texas Panhandle. The mid-level trough will deepen and push down over Texas tonight and Tuesday. The low level flow will continue from the south to southeast increasing moisture further. Lows Tuesday morning will range from the upper 50s to the lower 60s, 15- 20 degrees above normal. The cold front that is now over the Panhandle will move into our CWA during the day Tuesday. Behind the front northerly to northeasterly winds will bring cooler, drier air.
230 PM EST Mon Dec 23 2024 (This afternoon through Tuesday) 500 mb analysis reveals weak ridging over Georgia this afternoon. Visible satellite imagery shows a cloudless sky over the majority of the forecast area, as well as an area of low pressure swirling well off the east coast of Florida with a feed of low-level clouds spreading into the southeast portion of the forecast area. The airmass in place across much of the Southeast will warm tomorrow (Tuesday) given a steady-as-she-goes forecast of quasi- zonal flow aloft, high pressure at the surface, and a clear sky. Highs are expected to be in the mid-50s to lower 60s -- some 5-10 degrees warmer than today.
1129 AM CST Mon Dec 23 2024 (Rest of Today) A nice start to the holiday week is underway with high pressure in control of the weather pattern across the TN Valley. This will also keep clear skies in place for the forecast for the remainder of the day, helping to modify the airmass from the late weekend cold front. As such, current temps in the upper 30s/lower 40s will warm into the 50-55F range, with cooler temps E/warmer temps W.
Clouds increase late in the day as a splitting trough approaches from the west bringing some light precipitation chances. Rain amounts are not expected to be significant, with the chance for a tenth of an inch of QPF less than 25% in the lower elevations.
A positive-tilted longwave trough will move east over Wisconsin and remain well to our north. A few inverted troughs were analyzed from the Eastern Gulf of Mexico further east to near the Bahamas. High temperatures will range from near 50 in the higher elevations east and northeast to readings in the upper 50s far south and southwest. Broad troughing will develop over the Lee side of the Rockies while the positive-tilted trough well to our north moves over the Eastern Great Lakes. Low temperatures will range from the upper 20s northeast to the lower 30s south and southwest.
1051 AM CST Mon Dec 23 2024 - A few weather systems will bring periodic chances for precipitation through the weekend, with the first being today as a cold front works through the area.
1103 AM CST Mon Dec 23 2024 Clouds are increasing across the Arklatex and western portions of the Four State region as lower tropospheric theta e advection ramps up in advance low pressure and upper level trough development in the vicinity of the area later tonight into tomorrow. /50/ (Monday through Tuesday Night) High pressure to shift east today allowing for return southerly flow and increased moisture advection areawide. Convection to continue overnight with a few isolated thunderstorms possible near daybreak Tuesday across the I-30 corridor as an upper-trough moving east across the Texas intercepts the frontal boundary resulting in modest height falls that will lead to increased instability areawide.
1047 AM CST Mon Dec 23 2024 - Cloudy and noticeably cooler Monday.
Much of the central and southern TN Valley will reach the lower to mid 50s tomorrow, with upper 40s north under partial cloud cover. Ridging over the southeast U.
Highs are peaking in the lower 50s this afternoon, however don't expect much of a diurnal drop into tonight as heavy cloud cover and steady winds keep temps up a bit. Our SE could dip into the lower 30s where clouds take the longest to set in. Mid and upper level flow around this circulation will help to push deep layer moisture north into the Mississippi River Valley and towards the Lower Ohio Valley, but the trend of drier weather for central Kentucky continues.
With this flow in the upper levels, we will see a series of weak upper level troughs push their way through the area. For the plains, this will generally mean periods of gusty westerly winds, with some snow across the higher terrain along the Rocky Mountain Front and across Central and Southwestern Montana.
Currently, upper trough across northern Iowa is expected to shift east into the Great Lakes region. Cold front associated with this system is working from north to south across the region, with winds turning more northwesterly behind the front. Area of low pressure over the panhandle of Texas is expected to shift slowly south and east, leading rain showers and drizzle and patchy fog south of the front. With models pushing the surface boundary further south tonight and the drier air winning out, have dropped the mention of drizzle tonight into Tuesday from the forecast with the exception of the far southern fridge roughly from Butler - Booneville.
Where clear skies and calm winds have been more prevalent so far this evening (particularly in sheltered valley locations of northeastern Alabama), temperatures have already dropped into the lower to mid 30s.
A s/wv ridge pushing onshore over SOCAL today will move through Arizona tonight and Tuesday. Warm temperatures this afternoon will repeat again tomorrow, as the ridge axis slides east and mixing improves ahead of a Pacific trough. Tuesday night, the strongest winds aloft moves through as the trough approaches. By very early Christmas morning, rain and snow showers should start to break out along the cold front. The northern solutions that are dry, well, it's hard to imagine the cold front will produce nothing, so they are probably too dry.
511 PM CST Mon Dec 23 2024 Warmer and wetter conditions return to the Midsouth tomorrow.
(This afternoon through Tuesday) 500 mb analysis reveals weak ridging over Georgia this afternoon. Visible satellite imagery shows a cloudless sky over the majority of the forecast area, as well as an area of low pressure swirling well off the east coast of Florida with a feed of low-level clouds spreading into the southeast portion of the forecast area. The airmass in place across much of the Southeast will warm tomorrow (Tuesday) given a steady-as-she-goes forecast of quasi- zonal flow aloft, high pressure at the surface, and a clear sky. Highs are expected to be in the mid-50s to lower 60s -- some 5-10 degrees warmer than today.
Pattern/synopsis: Low pressure pushing across southern WI is weakening. Deeper moisture is long gone, but the low levels remain moist. At some point as we head into January, a trough likely reforms across the region per long range guidance. The good news is that it should stay just cool enough through Christmas to result in a white Christmas across a majority of northern Michigan! Low pressure currently centered over Southern Wisconsin will push southeastward into the Ohio Valley tonight. Large area of strong high pressure will build into the Western Great Lakes in its wake.
Today will be the best day to travel before Christmas due to minor ridging. Snow levels will remain above 7000 feet for most of the early morning, meaning only the highest peaks will see snow (before day break). The highest peaks may see up to 2-3" per hour of snow. Ridge winds may approach gusts up to 90 mph, depending on the location. Overnight lows Tuesday night drop below freezing across the area.
557 PM CST Mon Dec 23 2024 - Areas of fog and freezing fog will be possible overnight and a dense fog advisory goes into effect for portions of south central Nebraska at 11 PM this evening.
529 PM CST Mon Dec 23 2024 Tonight through Christmas Eve: A significant pattern change is currently underway for the Lower MS Valley region. In typical La Nina fashion, the heavier rainfall totals for the week are expected to be over northwest portions of the area with lesser totals expected in the lower Pine Belt region where the Florida ridge will tend to deflect the troughs.
541 PM EST Mon Dec 23 2024 - The risk of freezing rain has ended as temperatures are now at or above freezing.
Warmer and wetter conditions return to the Midsouth tomorrow.
313 PM CST Mon Dec 23 2024 Tonight through Christmas Eve: A significant pattern change is currently underway for the Lower MS Valley region. In typical La Nina fashion, the heavier rainfall totals for the week are expected to be over northwest portions of the area with lesser totals expected in the lower Pine Belt region where the Florida ridge will tend to deflect the troughs.
Weak northwesterly ripples ahead of a Great Basin ridge of high pressure are producing some weak snow showers on the terrain of northeast Utah and northwest Colorado this afternoon. Warm antecedent conditions under this ridge were evident on the Grand Junction morning sounding with warm noses at the lower and mid levels, despite nearly uniform northwesterly flow aloft. SNOTELs are recording temperatures well above freezing, thereby struggling to accumulate snow above the warm valleys. High pressure returns quickly Tuesday with temperatures well above normal, unless you're in the Gunnison Basin, where that cold inverted pool of air resides still. Things warm up across southwest Colorado and southeast Utah Tuesday, with temperatures near 50 degrees in the low valleys.
Rain will continue to increase in coverage and pivot southeast across the FA overnight ahead of an approaching surface cold front. Otherwise, expect mainly dry conditions as an 850 mb ridge axis shifts east across the mid Ohio Valley. While the temperature and moisture gradients broaden, upper ridging will build across the area.
255 PM MST Mon Dec 23 2024 - A few snow showers will be possible tonight over portions of the higher terrain, mainly over the central mountains, but will continue to taper off by tomorrow morning.
534 PM CST Mon Dec 23 2024 (Tonight through Tuesday night) Our region will be under the influence of zonal flow aloft ahead of a developing trough extending southward across the Plains with a developing low near the TX/OK border. The low will dig further southeast Tuesday night before lifting northeast during the long- term period. This weak cold front will approach our CWA Christmas morning. Highs over the next two days will generally range in the mid 70s near the coast to the low to mid 80s across the Brush Country/Rio Grande Plains. Overnight lows ranging in the 60s across the region tonight will be a few degrees cooler tomorrow night.
Late tonight through tomorrow morning will be dry as upper ridging slides through Idaho ahead of the next system.
305 PM CST Mon Dec 23 2024 - Areas of fog and freezing fog will be possible overnight and a dense fog advisory goes into effect for portions of south central Nebraska at 11 PM this evening.
However, the threat for light snow and freezing rain will continue over the ridges into the afternoon. - Threat for light snow or freezing rain in the ridges will continue into the afternoon. The exception will be over the higher elevations were probs are greater than 40% for measurable precip. With the loss of moisture aloft and the DGZ layer above the saturated layer, this should lead to more of a freezing rain/freezing drizzle threat as surface temperatures remain at or below freezing in these locales. -------------------------------------------------------------------- Heights rises are expected on Wednesday, which will also allow warmer air to spread across the area.
- Localized freezing fog will also affect portions of the far southwestern Texas Panhandle and northwestern South Plains tomorrow morning.
Much of the central and southern TN Valley will reach the lower to mid 50s tomorrow, with upper 40s north under partial cloud cover.
3 AM temperatures ranged from the lower 20s in the NE mountains to the mid 40s beneath the aforementioned low clouds. In response, a weak upper high will develop over the area and upstream flow will become increasingly southwesterly.
At the surface, southeast winds up to 10 mph will advect moisture northward allowing dewpoint values to increase to the lower to mid 60s across mainly east and northeast Texas with slightly lesser values elsewhere. A surface boundary attached to a closed low across the Red River Valley of north Texas will gradually shift south throughout the day. As the front moves across the ArkLaTex today, instability is forecast to increase due to falling heights fall aloft as a fairly amplified trough deepens across central Texas. 700mb trough to lag behind departing upper-level trough on Wednesday, maintaining cloudy skies and increased chances for showers.
A brief, transitory ridge will build in for Tuesday, resulting in a dry day with clouds increasing through the afternoon. The next system will approach as a much deeper trough Tuesday night.
A wet frontal boundary associated with this low will reach Central WA late this evening before tracking into Eastern WA and North ID on Tuesday. For Chelan county, temperatures below 2000 feet are slightly warmer, with 34F in Stehekin and 35F in Leavenworth.
304 AM EST Tue Dec 24 2024 Weak low pressure that generated widespread accumulating snow overnight and this morning will now exit across New England. while high pressure will build in from the west.
1217 AM EST Tue Dec 24 2024 - Notably warmer with chances for rain starting Wednesday.