Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Also, we are warming into the lower 80s now and our convective temperatures will be on approach. But the models are picking up on some mid and upper level late day ridging.
High pressure builds in over the area on Memorial Day bringing warmer, above normal temperatures to the area.
A weak ridge will transition over the area tonight bringing mostly clear skies and cool temperatures.
149 AM EDT Fri May 24 2024 High pressure building into the region will provide us with fair dry weather today.
(Today through Saturday) Upper level ridging near the Bay of Campeche continues to nose up into the western Gulf of Mexico and Louisiana.
Rest of the area should remain dry overnight, but will keep slight chance in late tonight across far NE OK with development along an approaching cold front.
433 AM EDT Fri May 24 2024 Hot and dry ridging at the surface and aloft will allow temps to reach into the lower 90s near the coast and mid 90s inland with some pockets of upper 90s. Ridge axis shifts south for the weekend, with W/NW flow in place.
137 AM EDT Fri May 24 2024 High pressure will bring sunny, dry, breezy and pleasant weather on Friday.
Night and morning coastal low clouds will extend inland across all of the valleys and onto the lower coastal slopes of the mountains with slower daytime clearing for coastal areas.
High pressure remains across the western Atlantic with a mid/upper level ridge building over the Gulf of Mexico and the Southern US. Favorable boating conditions will continue into the overnight with high pressure in place over the western Atlantic and the state of Florida.
High tempeatures will be in the lower to mid 60s today after a chilly start. Highs on Saturday will be warmer, with maxes in the mid to upper 60s.
It will be a much cooler day as 850 mb temperatures fall into the teens C, and highs will be in the 60s.
Also, the higher instability values are all elevated, and a considerable cap may be in place across much of the area. At the surface, a cold front will be pushing out of the Plains into the northwest part of the state tomorrow evening, and this will likely act as a trigger for another round of overnight convection, as the front slides into central Arkansas by Saturday morning and stalls.
339 AM EDT Fri May 24 2024 Weak high pressure over the middle Ohio Valley will keep conditions mainly dry for today. For tonight into Saturday, a cold front will pass east across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley, bringing a chance of showers and thunderstorms.
623 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024 (Today through Saturday night) A cold front will move through the Panhandles this overnight period and clear the area by sunrise.
944 AM EDT Fri May 24 2024 Weak high pressure over the middle Ohio Valley will keep conditions mainly dry for today. For tonight into Saturday, a cold front will pass east across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley, bringing a chance of showers and thunderstorms.
604 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024 (Today and tonight) A cold front has entered northwest Oklahoma and will sweep through the forecast area today, bringing marginally cooler and drier air behind it.
942 AM EDT Fri May 24 2024 A cold front will drop into the Mid-Atlantic tonight, then return northward as a warm front Saturday afternoon.
(Today and tonight) A cold front has entered northwest Oklahoma and will sweep through the forecast area today, bringing marginally cooler and drier air behind it.
With the exception of a few waxing and waning showers well to the north of the Lower Keys early this morning, weather conditions will continue to remain unremarkable through the end of the week. East to southeasterly breezes near 5 mph won't offer much relief from the seasonably warm temperatures, but dew point temperatures in the lower 70s will help to keep the heat index from soaring into the triple digits like we have already seen this month. The synoptic pattern will make some changes when the dominant ridging pattern tries to reposition itself over the course of the beginning of the week, including the Memorial Day holiday.
Hot and dry ridging at the surface and aloft will allow temps to reach into the lower 90s near the coast and mid 90s inland with some pockets of upper 90s. Ridge axis shifts south for the weekend, with W/NW flow in place.
In fact, the RAWS at the north end of Big Pine Key registered a low temp of 72 degrees around 6 AM, which was 10 degrees cooler than either Marathon or Key West! Looking at satellite derived precipitable waters, we can see that drier air is pivoting in from the east. Daytime temperatures will once again reach to near 90 and dew points look to hold in the lower 70s. Light to gentle east to southeast breezes will continue through the end of the week as high pressure will remain in place.
658 AM EDT Fri May 24 2024 Weak high pressure over the middle Ohio Valley will keep conditions mainly dry for today. For tonight into Saturday, a cold front will pass east across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley, bringing a chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Another round of Heat Warnings and/or Heat Advisories are likely tomorrow with the 500mb ridge remaining in tact and the heat dome associated with it still sporting 850mb temperatures of 25-28C.
633 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024 (Today through Saturday) Upper level ridging near the Bay of Campeche continues to nose up into the western Gulf of Mexico and Louisiana.
603 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024 - A couple rounds of showers and storms are possible today including a decaying line of storms this morning and redevelopment of strong to severe storms this afternoon and evening ahead of a cold front.
555 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024 (Today and tonight) A weak cold front will drop south across the Big Country by this afternoon, with the dryline advancing into far eastern portions of the forecast area by late afternoon.
(Today and tonight) A weak cold front will drop south across the Big Country by this afternoon, with the dryline advancing into far eastern portions of the forecast area by late afternoon.
602 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024 (Today through Saturday) Key Messages: â¶ Dangerous Heat Continues Quasi-zonal flow will continue today as an upper-level ridge begins to build tonight into tomorrow. As daytime highs tomorrow continue to trend to be a couple degrees warmer than today, there is a high chance for the issuance of another Excessive Heat Warning for tomorrow.
Expect a general break between storm systems today with a FROST ADVISORY continuing through 9 AM for the ern Magic Valley and Snake Plain corridor, but with warmer high temps reaching the upper 50s to upper 60s this afternoon. Our next low pressure system is still expected to drop across the forecast area Sat, with showers and at least a few afternoon t-storms. The AM showers and cloud cover may take the edge off t-storm potential, but the NAM Nest (representing a "high end" scenario) still insists on decent CAPE (instability) as high as 1,000 J/kg (although with weak shear), plus the trough will be overhead and portions of the CWA may be in the vicinity of the left-exit region of a modest mid-level jet.
Hi-res CAMs are painting the higher terrain of the eastern highlands, south hills and central mountains as the most likely locations for precipitation throughout the day with a lesser chance across the Snake Plain and Magic Valley but it's still in the 20-50% range. Additionally, winds will become breezy tomorrow across much of the lower valleys.
216 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024 - Windy conditions this evening with cooler and drier air returning tonight.
Satellite imagery shows varying amounts of high and m id level clouds ahead of an approaching weak upper trough. The upper trough axis is over the west side valleys and will move east late this morning.
Additional thunderstorms are expected to develop later this afternoon as a cold front that currently extends from a Newkirk- Stillwater-Spencer line in Oklahoma spreads to the southeast in an increasingly unstable airmass.
Besides the rain, another large concern we will have through this evening will be the gusty conditions tied to a tight pressure gradient from the 992mb low pressure just off to our west.
The low pressure system has moved into eastern North Dakota, relaxing the surface pressure gradient over the forecast area and allowing the winds to decrease this afternoon and evening. Mid-level warm advection ahead of an approaching upper trough may produce a few light showers over parts of southwestern and south central South Dakota late tonight/early Saturday.
206 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024 Today and Tonight: A 995 mb low pressure system continues to slowly push northeast towards North Dakota this morning.
Because of earlier extensive cloud cover, mid afternoon temperatures were only in the low/mid 70s. But odds of that remain on the low side.
However, it appears that an abundance of dry air in the low to mid levels (above the surface) is not allowing for sustained updrafts.
(This evening through Evening) We are anticipating widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms to develop this afternoon, as a cold front approaches south central and southeastern Oklahoma. A dryline will also extend south of the cold front across far southern Oklahoma (Ardmore southward into northern Texas). It is possible that enough storms may form to effectively push the cold front/boundary south and east of the area.
(This evening through Saturday) The forecast remains under nearly-zonal mid to upper flow this afternoon, although backing of that flow to southwest will occur later tonight ahead of a short wave trough that will eject across the Colorado Rockies to the central High Plains during the day Saturday. At the surface this afternoon a cooler post-frontal air mass is in place, albeit briefly. At that point the ejecting short wave trough and deep southwesterly flow will manifest as an eastward surging dryline on Saturday, likely getting to the eastern column of counties in the forecast area by mid-afternoon. Enhanced mid level flow south of the mid/upper trough will mix to the surface behind the dryline with windy 20-30 mph conditions on top of high temperatures a good ten degrees or more than this afternoon.
310 PM EDT Fri May 24 2024 High pressure will build in from the northwest tonight.
1235 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024 (Today and tonight) A weak cold front will drop south across the Big Country by this afternoon, with the dryline advancing into far eastern portions of the forecast area by late afternoon.
- Some shower and thunderstorm activity is possible tomorrow afternoon over portions of the higher terrain. A few isolated afternoon showers and storms may be possible over the higher terrain and the Pikes Peak Region late this afternoon into evening, but chances remain low at this time. For tomorrow, a new upper-level trough will begin to approach our area. West-southwest flow will increase across the area, mixing down towards the surface while high temperatures noticeably increase into the high-80s over the plains. Meanwhile, the incoming upper trough will bring in some additional mid-level moisture and synoptic lift, allowing for some shower and thunderstorm activity late tomorrow afternoon.
Rest of Today: Vertically stacked low peeling northeastward into Canada is grazing enough of our area with a tightened SPG to allow for gusts approaching or exceeding 45 mph with the more frequent gusts above this threshold near/west of the James River and perhaps along the Buffalo Ridge in SW MN.
1235 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024 (Today through Saturday night) A cold front will move through the Panhandles this overnight period and clear the area by sunrise.
(This evening through Saturday) Dryline has slid through much of the Concho Valley and Edwards Plateau early this afternoon, while the cold front has made through much of the Big Country.
Several of the high-res guidance members continue to show this potential, but overall confidence in how the scenario plays out is low. If rain doesn't spread too far south tonight, Saturday's highs should climb into the lower 90s.
352 PM EDT Fri May 24 2024 High pressure will bring dry weather through much of Saturday.
356 PM EDT Fri May 24 2024 A weak cold front will move through the region Saturday, bringing a low end chance for showers and storms.
MM (Today and tonight) High clouds passing through the region this morning and through today in response to a transient upper level trough. Inland temperatures drop about 4-8 degrees compared to yesterday's highs as cooler air makes its way in behind a weak front. Coastal areas may see a degree or too cooler, but largely unchanged temperature wise. Main changes to the forecast this morning are the addition of drizzle to some coastal areas for this morning as the trough coming through will provide some weak lift within the marine layer, perhaps even enough for a few hundredths in a few places.
While clouds tonight will not clear to bring classic frost development, temperatures will drop into the low to mid 30s. Upper low continues to rotate over the forecast area and has produced some convection. A few cold core upper low funnels and one confirmed tornado have been confirmed as of this writing, but should see instability decrease rapidly after 22Z and CAMs all have cells diminishing before sunset.
106 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024 (Today through Saturday) Upper level ridging near the Bay of Campeche continues to nose up into the western Gulf of Mexico and Louisiana.
1239 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024 (Today and tonight) A cold front has entered northwest Oklahoma and will sweep through the forecast area today, bringing marginally cooler and drier air behind it.
A poorly defined low level ridge extends across from the eastern Gulf of Mexico into the western North Atlantic. Temperatures generally range from the mid 80s to near 90 with dew points in the lower 70s as of 1 pm. The aforementioned low level ridge will remain broad and weak as it sits across the Gulf of Mexico, southeast U.
(Tonight) Cold front currently near a Tulsa to Ardmore line and making slow but steady progress eastward.
A low pressure system to our north will bring a weak cold front across the region bringing 50-70% precipitation chances.
Chances are highest for SE GA at 10 to 25 percent with some lower values in NE FL hanging in at 10 to 15 percent around the highway 301 corridor. Partly cloudy skies with overnight lows in the upper 60s to low 70s staying slightly warmer along the coast.
252 PM EDT Fri May 24 2024 Upper level ridging will build into Pennsylvania through early Saturday.
An incoming upper trough will kick off showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Activity will initiate over SE Oregon and the w-central Idaho mountains mid- afternoon, spreading eastward this evening as the trough and accompanying cold front shift eastward. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms developing in eastern OR this afternoon along a cold front, moving across SW Idaho this evening. SE 5-10 kt, shifting to NW 5-15 around 02-05Z/Sat, with brief gusts to 30 kt along a cold front.
A weak cold front will move inland this evening bringing showery conditions through Saturday.
Stacked ridging remains in place over the region keeping the hot and mainly dry conditions in place this evening, overnight and into Saturday. Strong ridging across the Eastern U.
421 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024 (This evening through Evening) We are anticipating widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms to develop this afternoon, as a cold front approaches south central and southeastern Oklahoma. A dryline will also extend south of the cold front across far southern Oklahoma (Ardmore southward into northern Texas). It is possible that enough storms may form to effectively push the cold front/boundary south and east of the area.
739 PM EDT Fri May 24 2024 A weak cold front will move through the region Saturday, bringing a low end chance for showers and storms.
A weak trough has moved through bringing chilly temperatures, especially inland, early this morning.
While clouds tonight will not clear to bring classic frost development, temperatures will drop into the low to mid 30s. Temperatures in the Devils Lake basin are in the low to middle 30s, with 40s elsewhere in the forecast area. Upper low continues to rotate over the forecast area and has produced some convection. A few cold core upper low funnels and one confirmed tornado have been confirmed as of this writing, but should see instability decrease rapidly after 22Z and CAMs all have cells diminishing before sunset.
633 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024 (This evening through Saturday) The forecast remains under nearly-zonal mid to upper flow this afternoon, although backing of that flow to southwest will occur later tonight ahead of a short wave trough that will eject across the Colorado Rockies to the central High Plains during the day Saturday. At the surface this afternoon a cooler post-frontal air mass is in place, albeit briefly. At that point the ejecting short wave trough and deep southwesterly flow will manifest as an eastward surging dryline on Saturday, likely getting to the eastern column of counties in the forecast area by mid-afternoon. Enhanced mid level flow south of the mid/upper trough will mix to the surface behind the dryline with windy 20-30 mph conditions on top of high temperatures a good ten degrees or more than this afternoon.
Satellite imagery shows varying amounts of high clouds and building cumulus underneath the high clouds east of the Cascades, which is where instability is greatest. Upper troughing remains over the area tonight, with a few showers north of the Umpqua Divide, and northern Cascades from about Crater Lake north. Afternoon temperatures for the interior will be a couple of degrees cooler on average.
731 PM EDT Fri May 24 2024 High pressure will build in from the northwest tonight.
959 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024 (This evening through Evening) We are anticipating widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms to develop this afternoon, as a cold front approaches south central and southeastern Oklahoma. A dryline will also extend south of the cold front across far southern Oklahoma (Ardmore southward into northern Texas). It is possible that enough storms may form to effectively push the cold front/boundary south and east of the area.
(The rest of tonight) Several updates already sent have reflected removing counties from the SVR watch and adjusting PoPs accordingly as the cold front passed.
725 PM EDT Fri May 24 2024 High pressure will bring dry weather through much of Saturday.
947 PM EDT Fri May 24 2024 High pressure will bring dry weather through much of Saturday.
631 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024 (This evening through Saturday) Dryline has slid through much of the Concho Valley and Edwards Plateau early this afternoon, while the cold front has made through much of the Big Country.
641 PM EDT Fri May 24 2024 High pressure will build in from the northwest tonight.
622 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024 (Tonight) Cold front currently near a Tulsa to Ardmore line and making slow but steady progress eastward.
645 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024 - Windy conditions this evening with cooler and drier air returning tonight.
Showery and cooler conditions will continue into Saturday as an upper level trough moves through the region.
By Saturday evening the nose of the upper level jet will advance into the mid-Mississippi Valley at the same time as a negatively tilted mid-level trough. At the surface a low will form across the Central Plains, it's attendant warm front surging northward through Missouri overnight. Thunderstorms are expected to redevelop during the afternoon and into the evening as the mid-level trough pushes into the forecast area. The high moisture content combined with the potential for two rounds of thunderstorms and training thunderstorms introduces a heavy rain risk.
Tonight - Saturday night Breezy northwesterly winds are present today behind last nights cold front and associated severe weather. Thunderstorms are expected to develop along and ahead of the cold front/dryline across Nebraska/Kansas in the afternoon hours as the upper disturbance approaches from the west. Highs will be in the low 70s and with the breezy northwesterly winds it will feel cool.
Tonight and Saturday A negatively tilted upper trough and attendant surface front will produce a broken line of thunderstorms as it moves across the area into the evening hours. Showers and thunderstorms that moved across the region earlier today and cloud cover have kept the lower atmosphere stable through mid afternoon, but increasing moisture convergence and and warm advection ahead of the front should create enough instability to get things going by 22z or 23z.
1232 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024 (The rest of tonight) Several updates already sent have reflected removing counties from the SVR watch and adjusting PoPs accordingly as the cold front passed.
Shower and thunderstorms are developing along the I-44 corridor as a cold front presses into the MS River Valley this evening.
The more unsettled weather will be courtesy of a broad trough working across the state. The trough will come through in pieces, with the first one this afternoon and evening. Temperatures will be slightly below seasonal averages, with the slightly warmer day being today.
At 8 PM an approaching cold front was just east of the Mississippi River about to enter the central IL forecast area. There is a low pressure system bringing frontal passages through the region on Sunday with a risk of severe weather along with the cold front. A warm front will quickly move north through central Illinois early Sunday morning, placing us in the warm sector. This should allow us to destabilize and break any cap that is in place ahead of the cold front.
While clouds tonight will not clear to bring classic frost development, temperatures will drop into the low to mid 30s. UPDATE Upper low continues to move slowly off to the north and east this evening, with persistent light precipitation stretched along a trailing axis of Fgen. Temperatures have cooled significantly with near freezing at the International Border and middle 40s in the southern Red River Valley. Temperatures in the Devils Lake basin are in the low to middle 30s, with 40s elsewhere in the forecast area. Upper low continues to rotate over the forecast area and has produced some convection. A few cold core upper low funnels and one confirmed tornado have been confirmed as of this writing, but should see instability decrease rapidly after 22Z and CAMs all have cells diminishing before sunset.
Currently temperatures are noticeably about 10 degrees cooler than what they were 24 hours ago. Now that the cold front has passed, its parent trough will continue to fill in today and prog northeast into Canada. In between these two features, a warm front is expected to creep into Minnesota today and warm sites into the low 70s. It possible that this warm frontal boundary may interact with weak forcing to generate scattered showers and some thunder later this afternoon, especially north of a line that extends from Yellow Medicine up to Kanabec Counties. Since the last forecast update, it appears that guidance has shifted this low's track farther southeast. The highest rainfall totals will remained focused to southeastern Minnesota and will greatly depend on forecast track deviation. Once Sunday's system clears, broad troughing will be overhead across the north-central CONUS.
Current radar this early afternoon does show some redevelopment in its wake ahead of the cold front. If sufficient destabilization is realized and more robust cells are able to form some scattered strong to severe storms cannot be ruled out, with the higher threat in our area appearing to be more confined across southwest WI.
In the upper levels, nearly zonal flow continues today and tonight with high pressure near the surface.