Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
606 AM CDT Thu Aug 29 2024 - One final hot and humid day today before cooler temperatures arrive. - Shower and thunderstorm chances return tonight through tomorrow afternoon as a cold front moves through the region.
106 PM CDT Thu Aug 29 2024 - Storms late afternoon through evening tonight - Cooler highs Friday - Relatively mild and quiet weather over weekend A cold front will move across west central Kansas this afternoon. Storms will then spread southeast as the cold front front moves across the FA this evening. The net result is cooler lows with values in the upper 50s to mid 60s. Friday will feature very pleasant temperatures with highs in the lower 80s. A dry high pressure center will prevail over the state. The winds shouldn't be that strong as the high pressure center is fairly weak with a weaker MSLP gradient expected across the state.
Expect these storms to continue through the peak heating portion of the day with the greatest coverage along the higher terrain and from outflow boundaries from dying storms. Expect storms to decrease in coverage once the sun begins to set, and we should see another fairly cool overnight with temperatures dropping into the 60s and 70s across the area, staying a few degrees warmer than what we experienced this morning. Tomorrow will bring with it another hot day, although a few degrees cooler than today with some enhanced cloud coverage as more storms are expected with the approaching front.
Temperatures will remain in check - near or even slightly below normal tomorrow, with highs in the lower to mid 90s for most of the area.
Look for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms through the weekend, especially over the higher terrain. High pressure was hanging out over the western states during the afternoon with an axis running from northwest to southeast across the Pacific Northwest, Nevada and Arizona. The same pattern remains in place with the high moving slightly eastward.
The upper level trough axis is expected to finally push all the way east of the Divide this afternoon and evening, ushering in drier air aloft. High pressure builds in from the west tonight, bringing clearing skies, calm conditions, and good radiational cooling. The high pressure moves overhead tomorrow, continuing the generally quiet pattern with temperatures running 3-5 degrees above seasonal.
Focus will then shift to the convection moving into the area tonight associated with the cold front. Cooler conditions, thoough really just trending closer to normal, are expected for the remainder of the forecast. The weather pattern looks quiet as well as high pressure settles into the central and northern Plains behind the system affecting the region currently.
Temperatures today were largely limited by cloud cover and cooling rain effects, with a few sites still reaching the lower 90s before dropping back into the 80s once rain passed.
234 PM CDT Thu Aug 29 2024 Forecast discussion for routine afternoon forecast issuance - Showers and thunderstorms are expected this evening into Friday morning from a cold frontal passage.
321 PM EDT Thu Aug 29 2024 High pressure south of James Bay will move slowly east of the area tonight and Friday.
(Tonight through Friday night) A weak upper ridge resides over TX this afternoon. This low has the winds across our CWA from the northeast through east. There is still a warm, moist airmass in place with temperatures in the lower to middle 80s and dewpoints in the 70s. The low off the coast is generating showers and thunderstorms that are moving into our eastern counties. Partly to mostly cloudy skies will lead to slightly warmer temperatures overnight. At the same time, a weak cold front will move through Central Texas and approach our northern border.
207 PM MDT Thu Aug 29 2024 Drier and warmer conditions will continue through the rest of the weekend as an upper level ridge builds over the region.
1245 PM MDT Thu Aug 29 2024 - High pressure moves across Wyoming for the Labor Day holiday weekend, leading to warmer, above normal temperatures.
1204 PM CDT Thu Aug 29 2024 (Today and tonight) Much of the support from the upper level low pressure system has moved out of the area for today.
843 AM PDT Thu Aug 29 2024 Cooler weather begins today, and persists through the weekend.
On Friday, an upper level trough will swing across the Plains sending a cold front into the Big Country Friday morning, with the front slowly moving south through the day. The front will be the focus for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon hours, with the higher rain chances across the northern half of the area. Highs on Friday will be near seasonal normals, in the low to mid 90s.
115 PM MDT Thu Aug 29 2024 Satellite imagery shows upper low continuing to depart to our east as ridge builds from the west. Building ridge will bring dry weather under widespread clear skies tonight through Friday night.
Moisture advection aided by this trough will allow dewpoints to creep into the low to mid 70s this afternoon. For areas in closest proximity to the trough, a Heat Advisory will remain in place for heat indices at or above 105 degrees. A couple more days of heat and humidity are on tap before a series of cold fronts come down Labor Day weekend and bring a cooler and wetter pattern to the Mid-South.
224 PM CDT Thu Aug 29 2024 - Showers and thunderstorms will continue across the area through tonight as a cold front moves through.
(Through Friday) Convection is slow to get going this afternoon thanks to ridging aloft with subsidence and mid level dry air in place. Upper ridging remains in place with subsidence and dry air aloft acting to suppress much of the convection away from the favored seabreeze zones of the Florida panhandle and big bend areas.
(Now through Friday) Currently at the 300mb level, our region is located on the northeast periphery of a ridge that is in between two upper lows; one over Texas and the other near the Florida Peninsula. Looking underneath the upper low to our west, a mid-level and surface-level low is attempting to form over the next day or so near the Louisiana/Texas border. Meanwhile, a mid-level ridge, along with high pressure at the surface, expands from the western Atlantic into our northeastern zones. On the other hand, subsidence from the ridge should keep rain chances lower over our northeastern zones (PoPs around 30-40%).
Updated at 210 PM CDT Thu Aug 29 2024 - Widespread showers/storms expected behind a cold front that is expected to move into the area starting this evening. An attendant cold front, which is draped from southeastern CO to the Northern Plains, is expected to make a push southward this evening. High temperatures tomorrow will be in the low to mid 80s behind the front, and low 90s ahead of the front.
(Rest of Today) A strong 500-mb high will remain centered to the immediate east- northeast of the local forecast area today, providing another afternoon of hot temperatures around the region, as air temperatures are predicted to range from the lower 90s in elevated terrain to between 95-100F in most of the valley.
pdf Bermuda high pressure ridging extends across the SE US maintaining ESE low-level flow.
1239 PM CDT Thu Aug 29 2024 Updated aviation portion for 18Z TAF issuance - Showers and thunderstorms are expected this evening into Friday from a cold frontal passage. A strong upper low over southern Saskatchewan is forecast to move to western Ontario by 12z Friday. Despite the passage of a front, highs Friday will be a little warmer than today, thanks to downslope west winds and more sunshine than today.
As for the temperatures for the short term forecast period, expect the high temperatures to be mostly in the 90s. For the low temperatures, they are expected to stick around in the 70s.
237 PM MDT Thu Aug 29 2024 - A few weak showers/storms over the higher terrain with gusty winds and brief light/moderate rain through this evening.
The mid/upper level low near the Texas Coast will continue to provide support for more scattered showers and storms. The combination of the clouds and rain chances will keep daytime highs near normal in the low to mid 90s.
124 PM EDT Thu Aug 29 2024 (Today and tonight) Upper level ridge remains in place across the southeast states this morning with light east and east-southeast flow in place in the low- levels.
Synoptically, a sfc coastal trough and mid- upper level low are slowly moving north-northwest along the Upper TX coast/northwestern Gulf.
218 PM EDT Thu Aug 29 2024 (This afternoon through Friday) Well defined lee trough in place across eastern and central portions of the CWA. Additional isolated/sct storms have developed along the ridgetops in the far NW. Trough will remain in place tomorrow.
101 PM EDT Thu Aug 29 2024 No major changes to the forecast for the rest of the morning as we sit under the hot ridge. Still looks to be a chance for some afternoon storms with the uptick in low level moisture and slightly warmer temperatures today. Anomalous ridging remains atop both the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, with H85 temperatures nearing 20C. Daily Record High Maximum Temperatures Date Chattanooga Knoxville Tri-Cities Oak Ridge 08-29 100(1993) 102(1948) 96(1953) 99(1948) Secondly, the moisture increase will lead to a return of shower/storm chances in the afternoon.
This will continue to be influenced by the upper-level ridge that has built in over the East Coast. Given the increased rain chances and cloud cover, highs tomorrow will range in the mid-80s to low-90s, and overnight lows will range in the low to mid-70s.
Humidity is forecast to slowly fall on Friday behind a cold front. There is also a Marginal or level 1 out of 5 Risk of severe storms on Friday ahead of the cold front.
High pressure ridging builds in through the weekend, the weather looks good for outdoor activities.
239 PM CDT Thu Aug 29 2024 Forecast remains on track for today: An upper low to the southwest will promote continued moisture advection into the area. While we have transitioned to a more diurnally driven regime producing rain and thunderstorms, much of today's convection will be driven by a remnant shear-axis pivoting around the low to our southwest, pushing the overall convective line to the northwest throughout the period. Temperatures have risen to the lower 90sF, so heat indices are expected to continue hovering around 105F for the remainder of today; which has motivated the current heat advisory for the MS and the associated elevated heat graphic. The overall regime will change very little, overnight lows will bottom out in the mid 70s trending a few degrees cooler to the east with isolated areas of low ceilings and visibility in southern zones.
There is a 10-30% chance of isolated pop-up showers and thunderstorms, with the highest chances across the higher terrain of southeast OK and northwest AR. Then, it'll be another mild night tonight with lows mostly in the low to mid 70s. (Tonight through Thursday) A change to unsettled weather is still in the forecast beginning Friday when a cold front will approach the area, with a widespread risk of showers and thunderstorms. In terms of timing, rain chances will ramp up near dawn for much of the area, with the highest chances in portions of northeast OK. However, the best chance of rain will come Friday afternoon and evening as precipitation fills in along the southward moving surface cold front.
* Cold front will move through the region late this weekend, bringing relief from hot temperatures and humidity. Expect to see isolated to widely scattered showers and storms develop by afternoon into the evening, most notably along and west of I-65 as the upper ridge begins to break down a bit.
1116 AM MDT Thu Aug 29 2024 - Isolated showers and storms are possible through this morning - Cooler weather through today with gusty winds across northwest SD. Upper level low currently centered over northern MT/southern SK with 500 mb speed max (50-60kt) positioned across western ND into northwestern SD. These isolated showers should cross the CWA from northwest to southeast through this morning as the upper low passes to our north. Temperatures will be cooler today with highs generally in the 70s to low 80s. Upper ridge builds into the western US by the weekend, bringing warmer and dry conditions to the CWA.
Drier air continues to push eastward across the CWA in the wake of the passing cold front.
1213 PM CDT Thu Aug 29 2024 - One final hot and humid day today before cooler temperatures arrive. - Shower and thunderstorm chances return tonight through tomorrow afternoon as a cold front moves through the region.
1254 PM CDT Thu Aug 29 2024 An upper low to the southwest will promote continued moisture advection into the area today. /OAJ/ An upper low to the southwest will promote continued moist advection into the area today. This weakness in high pressure across our region will combine with increased moisture/instability and hot temperatures across the CWA each afternoon.
1124 AM MDT Thu Aug 29 2024 - Fall like temperatures across the Cowboy State this morning with many seeing near to below freezing temperatures in western valleys. Areas east of the Divide will see cool lows with values in the low to mid 40s. Temperatures today will be on the cooler side with highs in the mid to upper 70s. Chilly temperatures are expected once again for Friday morning with near freezing values across western valleys. Friday will see a potent area of high pressure build into the western CONUS. This high will keep warm and dry conditions over the CWA through the weekend. This low would bring chances for precipitation to other parts of the CWA but confidence is currently low at this time.
(Rest of Today and Tonight) We will remain under high pressure influence through the duration of the afternoon as the 500-mb high pressure center remains just to our NE.
1047 AM PDT Thu Aug 29 2024 Thursday morning will be chilly, but sunny skies will push afternoon temperatures into the upper 70s in north Idaho and the low to mid 80s in central and eastern Washington.
1 inches will support scattered to numerous showers and storms each day with the highest chances over southwest Florida. Seasonal temps are also expected with highs in the low to mid 90's and overnight lows in the 70's. High pressure to the north ridges across Florida keeping a predominant easterly wind flow across the region.
Lines of convection currently congealing across Minnesota will move east ahead of the surface cold front tonight and cross Lake Michigan, arriving at Ludington around 12Z according to the CAMs, which are in fairly good agreement on timing. Scattered showers will persist through Friday evening as low level moisture lingers ahead of the upper trough axis and along the cold front.
1228 PM CDT Thu Aug 29 2024 (Rest of Today) A strong 500-mb high will remain centered to the immediate east- northeast of the local forecast area today, providing another afternoon of hot temperatures around the region, as air temperatures are predicted to range from the lower 90s in elevated terrain to between 95-100F in most of the valley.
While temperatures will be a few degrees cooler on Friday, an increase in moisture will cause heat index values to be hotter near 105 degrees. - A slow moving cold front will bring the chance of showers and storms on Friday.
605 PM EDT Thu Aug 29 2024 - A cold front arrives later Friday afternoon and provides a chance for strong to severe thunderstorms.
606 PM CDT Thu Aug 29 2024 Updated at 547 PM CDT Thu Aug 29 2024 - Widespread showers/storms expected behind a cold front that is expected to move into the area starting this evening. An attendant cold front, which is draped from southeastern CO to the Northern Plains, is expected to make a push southward this evening. High temperatures tomorrow will be in the low to mid 80s behind the front, and low 90s ahead of the front.
Now, the outflow boundary associated with these dissipated storms is racing north towards the Dry Tortugas and the Lower Keys. From synopsis, an Atlantic ridge stretching into the southeastern United States and Florida will generally remain in place through the upcoming holiday weekend with only subtle shifts in placement. A weak trough is expected to move northwestward towards the Keys over the weekend resulting in a slight uptick in southeasterly breezes and a period of unsettled weather.
649 PM CDT Thu Aug 29 2024 Updated aviation portion for 00Z TAF issuance - Showers and thunderstorms are expected this evening into Friday morning from a cold frontal passage.
629 PM CDT Thu Aug 29 2024 (Tonight through Friday night) A weak upper ridge resides over TX this afternoon. This low has the winds across our CWA from the northeast through east. There is still a warm, moist airmass in place with temperatures in the lower to middle 80s and dewpoints in the 70s. The low off the coast is generating showers and thunderstorms that are moving into our eastern counties. Partly to mostly cloudy skies will lead to slightly warmer temperatures overnight. At the same time, a weak cold front will move through Central Texas and approach our northern border.
Repeat evolution likely on Friday, with afternoon and early evening showers and storms and highs in the lower to mid 90s. 1 inches will support scattered to numerous showers and storms each day with the highest chances over southwest Florida. Seasonal temps are also expected with highs in the low to mid 90's and overnight lows in the 70's. High pressure to the north ridges across Florida keeping a predominant easterly wind flow across the region.
The area of low pressure that has doused the Ark-La-Tex will remain displaced to our east, but as the depression responsible for the active weather across West Texas approaches, North and Central Texas will have little if any inhibition on Friday. A cold front may struggle to approach from the northwest, but its proximity should aid in convective initiation into the afternoon hours.
936 PM EDT Thu Aug 29 2024 - Marginal Risk of Severe Storms on Friday - Dry and Cooler over the Weekend Little change to going forecast. Lines of convection currently congealing across Minnesota will move east ahead of the surface cold front tonight and cross Lake Michigan, arriving at Ludington around 12Z according to the CAMs, which are in fairly good agreement on timing. Scattered showers will persist through Friday evening as low level moisture lingers ahead of the upper trough axis and along the cold front.
716 PM EDT Thu Aug 29 2024 (Through Friday) Convection is slow to get going this afternoon thanks to ridging aloft with subsidence and mid level dry air in place. Upper ridging remains in place with subsidence and dry air aloft acting to suppress much of the convection away from the favored seabreeze zones of the Florida panhandle and big bend areas.
536 PM MDT Thu Aug 29 2024 - High pressure moves across Wyoming for the Labor Day holiday weekend, leading to warmer, above normal temperatures.
Dry and incrementally warmer over the next several days.
544 PM EDT Thu Aug 29 2024 High pressure south of James Bay will move slowly east of the area tonight and Friday.
543 PM MDT Thu Aug 29 2024 - A few weak showers/storms over the higher terrain with gusty winds and brief light/moderate rain through this evening.
Overnight lows will be in the low to mid 70s under mostly clear skies. Outside of storm activity, boating conditions will be generally favorable with the Atlantic ridge axis positioned just north of the local area.
Shower and thunderstorm chances will increase (20-40%) from the northwest after midnight tonight as a surface cold front approaches the forecast area. Mejia (Friday through Thursday) A change to unsettled weather is still in the forecast beginning Friday when a cold front will approach the area, with a widespread risk of showers and thunderstorms. In terms of timing, rain chances will ramp up near dawn for much of the area, with the highest chances in portions of northeast OK. However, the best chance of rain will come Friday afternoon and evening as precipitation fills in along the southward moving surface cold front.
953 PM EDT Thu Aug 29 2024 High pressure south of James Bay will move slowly east of the area tonight and Friday.
554 PM CDT Thu Aug 29 2024 - Showers and thunderstorms will continue across the area through tonight as a cold front moves through.
(This afternoon through Friday) Well defined lee trough in place across eastern and central portions of the CWA. Additional isolated/sct storms have developed along the ridgetops in the far NW. Trough will remain in place tomorrow.
Look for the possibility of convective redevelopment after midnight, towards sunrise Friday morning across our far southern zones given the proximity of the anchored upper level trough with more scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms developing by late morning and especially during the afternoon on Friday with the aid of daytime heating. This will continue to be influenced by the upper-level ridge that has built in over the East Coast. Given the increased rain chances and cloud cover, highs tomorrow will range in the mid-80s to low-90s, and overnight lows will range in the low to mid-70s.
Focus will then shift to the convection moving into the area tonight associated with the cold front. Cooler conditions, through really just trending closer to normal, are expected for the remainder of the forecast. The weather pattern looks quiet as well as high pressure settles into the central and northern Plains behind the system affecting the region currently.
625 PM CDT Thu Aug 29 2024 (Rest of Today and Tonight) We will remain under high pressure influence through the duration of the afternoon as the 500-mb high pressure center remains just to our NE.
1257 AM CDT Fri Aug 30 2024 (Tonight through Friday night) A weak upper ridge resides over TX this afternoon. This low has the winds across our CWA from the northeast through east. There is still a warm, moist airmass in place with temperatures in the lower to middle 80s and dewpoints in the 70s. The low off the coast is generating showers and thunderstorms that are moving into our eastern counties. Partly to mostly cloudy skies will lead to slightly warmer temperatures overnight. At the same time, a weak cold front will move through Central Texas and approach our northern border.
A sprawling ridge across the Atlantic will extend across the Florida Peninsula and into the eastern Gulf of Mexico, promoting a very moist east to southeast flow.
The short range models and CAMS indicate a bit more coverage to our east today in north GA and east TN along the Blue Ridge and Smoky Mtns.
This period will continue to see high pressure dominating the weather pattern for the northern Great Basin. However, in the last twelve hours of this period, this ridge begins to break down and showers and thunderstorms will reach as far as northeast NV. A trough slowly moves through on Mon and Tue, with showers and thunderstorms likely for Mon afternoon and overnight. Wed still has a threat of instability showers and thunderstorms in the low's wake, with the upper level high re- asserting itself on Thu. Messick High pressure is in control of the weather across eastern Idaho. McKaughan High pressure will control the weather across eastern Idaho through the weekend.
A mid/upper level low pressure system meandering just offshore of Southeast Texas, will slowly wobble east northeast and eventually over Louisiana through tonight, weakening in the process. This low, combined with increasing moisture/instability and warm temperatures across the CWA this afternoon (highs from the mid 80s to mid 90s), will result in another bout of scattered to widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms lifting north northwest through the forecast area.
102 AM CDT Fri Aug 30 2024 - Showers and thunderstorms will continue across the area through tonight as a cold front moves through.
This would occur along a zone of better surface convergence associated with a wind shift and cold front.
This morning a cold front is sinking through the area with post- frontal showers and thunderstorms affecting the area. Showers and cloud cover will keep temperatures cooler today with more seasonable highs in the low to mid 80s.