Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1229 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024 (Tonight through Tuesday night) The latest GOES 16 water vapor imagery shows at 594dm ridge over northern Mexico, resulting in our rather hot and humid conditions early this afternoon. Southwest flow aloft remains west of us over west Texas and New Mexico and will remain that way through most of Tuesday until we start to see the ridge slide more eastward tomorrow evening. A cold front will enter the Texas Panhandle late Tuesday and start working southward, but don't get your hopes up, as it's unlikely to have much of any impact on our sensible weather in the short term.
127 AM EDT Tue May 21 2024 Our preview of summer weather through midweek, as a ridge of high pressure maintains warm and mainly dry conditions and light winds.
expecting mostly clear skies with low temperatures in the lower to mid 60s well inland.
1238 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024 (Tonight) High pressure remains layered across the mid/southern Atlantic states this Mon evening, with current temp trends mainly in the 70s/near 70F. With a light return flow pattern in place, temps into early Tue again look to remain seasonably warm, with lows mainly in the lower/mid 70s, under mostly clear skies.
After quite a chaotic day of active weather yesterday, the upper level trough responsible for the massive rainfall totals seen across the Keys yesterday has shifted for enough eastward that the Keys are now out of the the main areas of convection. Winds have finally shifted to the north, which has helped temperatures drop into the upper 70s and kept dew points in the lower 70s. Over the next few days, the aforementioned upper-level trough will tighten and elongate itself west of the East Coast.
354 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024 - There will be a chance for isolated to scattered severe storms along a cold front moving through the area for a few hours this afternoon from far northeastern to far east central Kansas areas.
* Cooler temperatures are expected today with highs in the mid 50s to low 60s before gradually warming through the end of the week (into the 70s by the weekend).
Breezes will gradually shift to the east late this afternoon through Wednesday, as high pressure in the western North Atlantic builds back in across the region.
(Now through Wednesday) Upper level ridging will build over the area through Wednesday. The subsidence beneath the ridge will maintain a dry pattern with mostly clear skies and above normal warmth. High pressure over the western Atlantic will maintain a light southeasterly flow. Lows tonight will be in the low/mid 60s inland to around 70 near the coast.
(Today) Another warm, humid, and breezy day is on tap today ahead of an approaching cold front.
411 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024 Today through tonight: Another dry day with above normal temperatures is expected as the subtropical ridge axis extending from Mexico into the Lower Mississippi Valley region crosses our area. At the surface, high pressure will shift to our east, and this will result in a tightening pressure gradient and increased surface wind gusts during peak heating. /EC/ Early morning global guidance continues to highlight a strong 983 mb low pressure system tracking northeast towards the Great Lakes- southern Canada through Wednesday morning.
423 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024 - Dry frontal passage today - Pleasant highs Wednesday - Seasonal temps and weather for the rest of the week A cold front will traverse across the state today. For Wednesday, cool and dry high pressure will prevail across southwest Kansas. Winds will remain on the light side underneath the high pressure center.
621 AM EDT Tue May 21 2024 High pressure will shift offshore bringing warmer temperatures this week.
635 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024 (Today through Wednesday) 594dm Subtropical Ridge anchored over N Mexico and South Texas to maintain the above seasonal heat and keep our region rain free today through Wednesday. Another heat advisory is possible Wednesday with no substantial change to the airmass or the position of strength of the 500mb ridge. Local air quality will be impacted with AQI in the 'Unhealthy for Sensitive groups" forecast for the RGV including the lower coast today and Wednesday.
(Today through Wednesday) High pressure aloft and at the surface through the short term period will produce warm and dry conditions throughout the short term period. With favorable prevailing surface winds out of the southeast providing a modest enhancement of daytime upslope winds, SBCAPE between 500- 1000+ J/kg, and some moisture remaining in the lower levels of the atmosphere, convection in mountainous terrain will be possible today. Max daily temperatures will climb into the low to mid 80s today with temperatures reaching the mid to upper 80s tomorrow where areas in elevated terrain will remain in the 70s.
702 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024 Today through tonight: Another dry day with above normal temperatures is expected as the subtropical ridge axis extending from Mexico into the Lower Mississippi Valley region crosses our area. At the surface, high pressure will shift to our east, and this will result in a tightening pressure gradient and increased surface wind gusts during peak heating. /EC/ Early morning global guidance continues to highlight a strong 983 mb low pressure system tracking northeast towards the Great Lakes- southern Canada through Wednesday morning.
Temperatures are forecast to dip below seasonal averages by the upcoming weekend as an upper level trough impacts the region. (Today and tonight) Similar to the past few days, stratus is confined to coastal regions with the highest concentrations in the Monterey Bay, portions of the Central Coast, and the Salinas Valley with dissipation expected by mid-morning. The main story for tomorrow continues to be the high temperatures and minor heat risk expected throughout the Bay Area and portions of the Central Coast. Inland high temperatures will be 5 to 8 degrees above average with increasingly northerly flow bringing drier and warmer conditions. Given Tuesday's warmer and drier conditions, minor heat risk is expected for almost all of the Bay Area and Central Coast.
A subtle ridge of high pressure will slide over the Northern Rockies today causing a slight warming trend, but scattered showers will continue to affect portions of the region.
437 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024 - There will be a chance for isolated to scattered severe storms along a cold front moving through the area for a few hours this afternoon from far northeastern to far east central Kansas areas.
705 AM EDT Tue May 21 2024 High pressure shifts slightly to the south today then out to sea Wednesday.
546 AM PDT Tue May 21 2024 Through Wednesday, slowly warmer with the deserts warming to a few degrees above average and the coast and valleys remaining below average.
435 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024 - There will be a chance for isolated to scattered severe storms along a cold front moving through the area for a few hours this afternoon from far northeastern to far east central Kansas areas.
Highest rainfall amounts are expected in the wrap-around region of the low, and totals up to 3 inches are possible by Wednesday evening. This afternoon and evening, a warm front will move through the eastern half of the CWA. There are signals for an isolated tornado or two from SRH values 400-500 and model hodographs showing nice turning in the low levels.
927 AM EDT Tue May 21 2024 High pressure will shift offshore bringing warmer temperatures this week.
625 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024 (Today through Wednesday) We will get to enjoy another quiet day across Middle TN with a ridge of high pressure off to our east. This will set up a cold front to our west with storms developing along it. The highest CAPE will be over the western portion of the area and this is the area that will see the highest risk for a few stronger storms in the late afternoon and early overnight. (Wednesday Night through next Tuesday) The cold front will stall over the region and this will keep an unsettled weather pattern in place.
625 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024 (Today) Another warm, humid, and breezy day is on tap today ahead of an approaching cold front.
As the upper trough/cold front moves onshore into the PacNW, precip chances increase tonight along the coast, near the Rogue- Umpqua Divide, over to the Cascades and even across Oregon sections of the East Side. Snow levels should be high enough to preclude wintry impacts, though some wet snowflakes may mix in with the rain showers near the higher Cascades Wednesday morning. The front and upper trough will shift to the east of the area Wednesday afternoon and precip chances will dwindle to almost nothing again, except for a 20% chance of showers lingering across the far north near Willamette Pass.
430 AM MDT Tue May 21 2024 - Cooler today, with another round of afternoon showers and thunderstorms. - On and off snow showers across the high country through tonight, with light accumulations across the higher mountains.
Rather than bringing us cooler weather, the cold front will meet with a disturbance moving across West Texas and initiate a few storms Wednesday afternoon across the far eastern Permian Basin and lower Trans Pecos.
Mid level troughing remains in place across the western Atlantic stretching southwestward across Florida. Cooler temperatures along the immediate Volusia Coast, mainly in the low 80s. The wet, stormy pattern transitions as high pressure builds at the surface and aloft. 500mb ridging across the western Gulf extends over the state of Florida Wednesday. Most notably, the building ridge will support a warming temperature trend. Afternoon highs warm into mid to upper 80s along the coast and near I-95, reaching the low 90s across much of the interior.
931 AM EDT Tue May 21 2024 High pressure shifts slightly to the south today then out to sea Wednesday.
545 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024 (Today through Wednesday Night) The near term will begin with ridging from the western Gulf Coast to the southeast United States including Arkansas. Under the ridge, it will be another day with well above average temperatures in the lower 90s in central, southern, and northeast sections of the state. A powerful storm system will track around the ridge from the central Plains to the upper Midwest through this evening. The system will try to drag a cold front into the region. Models are quite a bit cooler Wednesday than today, and this will tend to limit severe weather.
550 AM EDT Tue May 21 2024 (Today and tonight) High pressure centered northeast of the area will maintain light easterly winds across the region today with winds along the coast turning onshore with a sea breeze passage later this afternoon.
950 AM EDT Tue May 21 2024 High pressure remains over the Mid-Atlantic region today. A summerlike pattern develops by the middle of the week as high pressure settles off the Southeast coast.
502 AM MDT Tue May 21 2024 - Relatively active pattern expected through Memorial Day weekend 08z surface analysis had low over central NE with front into southwest MN and trough into the eastern Dakotas. Another upper trough over MT/ID.
A ridge of high pressure will weaken tonight with a cold front bringing a return of shower and thunderstorm chances back to the Mid-South.
KEY MESSAGES: - Isolated showers/storms are possible this afternoon, mainly north and over the ridges.
(Today and tonight) Our area will be under southwest flow aloft today and tonight with an upper level ridge to our east over the lower Mississippi Valley/Gulf Coast states, and a broad upper trough over most of the western half of the CONUS. Expect highs to range from the lower to mid 90s in our eastern counties, to around 100 degrees in the western Concho Valley (including San Angelo) and along parts of the I-10 corridor.
(This afternoon through Wednesday) Height rises are occurring this afternoon as the mid-level ridge axis, extending from the 594dam height center over Mexico, shifts east across Central Alabama. Under the effects of deep ridging, temperatures will climb into the mid to upper 80s this afternoon with some spots potentially hitting 90F. Warm conditions are expected once again with temperatures rising from the lower to mid 60s during the morning to the upper 80s by afternoon as flow becomes more zonal aloft.
The high pressure and increasing low-level humidity overnight will lead to a chance for fog centered on the Pine Belt in southeast MS early Wednesday morning.
Meanwhile, the Mid-South remains on the western periphery of a surface and upper-level ridge axis.
- Warm and muggy conditions to be replaced by somewhat cooler and less humid air later this week into the Memorial Day weekend with some additional chances for showers and storms. The cold front stalls just east of the area Wednesday morning, and so there could still be isolated to scattered showers and storms, but the risk of severe weather is low.
1144 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024 - There will be a chance for isolated to scattered severe storms along a cold front moving through the area for a few hours this afternoon from far northeastern to far east central Kansas areas.
/NF/ Today through tonight: Another dry day with above normal temperatures is expected as the subtropical ridge axis extending from Mexico into the Lower Mississippi Valley region crosses our area. At the surface, high pressure will shift to our east, and this will result in a tightening pressure gradient and increased surface wind gusts during peak heating. /EC/ Early morning global guidance continues to highlight a strong 983 mb low pressure system tracking northeast towards the Great Lakes- southern Canada through Wednesday morning.
As convection slides east this evening, cold front drops south through the plains, bringing a brief period of gusty winds behind the boundary, before subsiding after midnight. On Wednesday, wave departs with weak upper ridging across Colorado by afternoon.
Models are trending cooler with temperatures for Wed, and earlier with the chance of thunderstorms.
(The rest of today ) Warm and breezy conditions ongoing with low level moisture increasing ahead of the cold front which was currently located from central KS through SW OK.
1253 PM EDT Tue May 21 2024 The pattern aloft this afternoon features high pressure centered over Mexico and and troughing to our east, with flow over the region out of the north-northeast. At the surface, high pressure over the mid-Atlantic region ridges down across Florida. The rest of the week looks to be rather uneventful as ridging builds over the region aloft and increasing subsidence leads to lower rain chances. Only southwest Florida and the interior could see a shower or too, but rainfall amounts are forecast to be on the low side.
This is the result of high pressure centered just to our east and strong WAA under broad ridging aloft, continuing a warming trend across the Tennessee Valley early this week.
316 PM EDT Tue May 21 2024 High pressure will shift offshore bringing warmer temperatures this week.
Dry conditions will persist as an upper level ridge of high pressure builds into our region from the west. Highs are generally on track to range in the mid 80s to near 90 inland and in the lower to mid 80s along the immediate coast.
A light to moderate low level NE flow will exist across the area today, between high pressure to the north of the state and low pressure well offshore over the west Atlantic. Mid-level trough axis extended across the area may allow for some enhanced lift with the inland moving east coast sea breeze to produce scattered showers and isolated storms. Low pressure situated far offshore will support northeast winds around 5-10 kts.
1233 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024 (Today through Wednesday) 594dm Subtropical Ridge anchored over N Mexico and South Texas to maintain the above seasonal heat and keep our region rain free today through Wednesday. Another heat advisory is possible Wednesday with no substantial change to the airmass or the position of strength of the 500mb ridge. Local air quality will be impacted with AQI in the 'Unhealthy for Sensitive groups" forecast for the RGV including the lower coast today and Wednesday.
1250 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024 (Today through Wednesday Night) The near term will begin with ridging from the western Gulf Coast to the southeast United States including Arkansas. Under the ridge, it will be another day with well above average temperatures in the lower 90s in central, southern, and northeast sections of the state. A powerful storm system will track around the ridge from the central Plains to the upper Midwest through this evening. The system will try to drag a cold front into the region. Models are quite a bit cooler Wednesday than today, and this will tend to limit severe weather.
117 PM EDT Tue May 21 2024 High pressure provides unseasonably warm and mostly dry weather today.
1234 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024 (Today and tonight) Our area will be under southwest flow aloft today and tonight with an upper level ridge to our east over the lower Mississippi Valley/Gulf Coast states, and a broad upper trough over most of the western half of the CONUS. Expect highs to range from the lower to mid 90s in our eastern counties, to around 100 degrees in the western Concho Valley (including San Angelo) and along parts of the I-10 corridor.
Meanwhile, at the surface, a weak area of low pressure east of the Bahamas continues to trek slowly eastward, with a weak area of high pressure over the Mid-Atlantic states building in its wake. The interaction of the low and high pressure features has resulted in a weak surface pressure gradient over the Florida Keys, with generally light and variable flow. The light flow has promoted a broken cumulus cloud line in the vicinity of the Lower Keys, occasionally dishing out a few showers. The aforementioned ridge over the Gulf will continue to slide eastward, bridging over the Florida Peninsula by late in the week and into the weekend.
However, a more organized area of convection will develop along a weak cold front across Srn and Ern OK, and will spread into areas NW of the I-30 corridor by mid and late morning, and could affect TXK/ELD by or shortly after the end of the 18Z TAF period.
Near the surface, a cold front is pushing southeast into northern Oklahoma. Although instability will be limited as northerlies continue to funnel in drier air into the region, CAMs do suggest shower/thunderstorm development early this evening as a series of H5 vort maxima eject east out of the Colorado Rockies, interacting with H7 frontogenetic banding developing in wake of the cold front pushing southward into the Texas Panhandle/northwest Oklahoma.
(Tonight through Wednesday night) Concur with the deterministic runs that the CWA will remain under the influence of a flat upper ridge while a series of upper disturbances move eastward just to the north. PWAT values over the CWA are predicted to remain above normal during the period, yet the lower/mid level inversion will preclude precipitation during the period.
(This evening through Wednesday night) An upper level ridge is currently centered over central Mexico just southwest of Brownsville Texas. The axis of this high currently extends northeastward across the southeastern US to the Ohio River Valley. It will suppress southward the next couple days as an upper level trough currently moving through the Northern/Central Plains tracks northeastward across the northern Mississippi River Valley.
217 PM EDT Tue May 21 2024 Warm high pressure will persist across the region through the middle of the week with a few showers and storms possible each afternoon over the mountains.
1120 AM MDT Tue May 21 2024 - Relatively active pattern expected through Memorial Day weekend 08z surface analysis had low over central NE with front into southwest MN and trough into the eastern Dakotas. Another upper trough over MT/ID.
Moderate north winds and a few degrees of cooling will occur today behind a low pressure system moving away toward the Rockies. A mean trough will hold over the western states this week into the holiday weekend resulting in near normal temperatures with elevated afternoon winds each day. Overall, skies were clear across the region with temperatures running slightly cooler than this time yesterday. With cool northerly flow, high temperatures today will be cooler than yesterday, running about 5 degrees below normal in most locations for this time of the year. North winds were spreading down through southern Nevada early this morning behind a cold front associated with an upper low sliding across northeast Nevada and Utah.
1230 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024 (The rest of today ) Warm and breezy conditions ongoing with low level moisture increasing ahead of the cold front which was currently located from central KS through SW OK.
142 PM EDT Tue May 21 2024 High pressure will shift offshore bringing warmer temperatures this week.
As the deepening area of low pressure tracks from the central Plains into the northern Mississippi Valley, a line of strong to severe thunderstorms is expected to march across Wisconsin this evening, possibly reaching far western zones of northern lower just before midnight. Highs to the west in the low and mid 70s.
(This evening through Wednesday night) Tonight will be a fairly quiet night weather wise as the main impacts will be a cold front move through and bring temperatures back into the mid 40s to mid 50s by Wednesday morning. As far as Wednesday goes for highs, it's a little up in the air, as we have a battle between warmer air quickly returning, or a cold moist pocket lingering in our south and east. Overall, the forecast has trended towards the warmer solution. Additionally, if the cooler/moist solution pans out for Wednesday night, we could get enough moisture to saturate to the top of the inversion, and there is ample CAPE (>3000 J/kg) above the inversion, that we could get some overnight storms in the southeast.
1103 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024 - Dry frontal passage today - Pleasant highs Wednesday - Seasonal temps and weather for the rest of the week A cold front will traverse across the state today. For Wednesday, cool and dry high pressure will prevail across southwest Kansas. Winds will remain on the light side underneath the high pressure center.
208 PM MDT Tue May 21 2024 - Much cooler temperatures with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms.
1257 PM EDT Tue May 21 2024 High pressure shifts to the south today then out to sea Wednesday.
longwave troughing pattern will remain over the western states into the coming weekend.
A cold front and associated upper level trough continues to bring rain across Western Washington this afternoon, with activity wrapping up by Wednesday morning.
727 PM EDT Tue May 21 2024 There will be some showers and thunderstorms as a cold front approaches the region on Wednesday.
627 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024 (This evening through Wednesday night) Tonight will be a fairly quiet night weather wise as the main impacts will be a cold front move through and bring temperatures back into the mid 40s to mid 50s by Wednesday morning. As far as Wednesday goes for highs, it's a little up in the air, as we have a battle between warmer air quickly returning, or a cold moist pocket lingering in our south and east. Overall, the forecast has trended towards the warmer solution. Additionally, if the cooler/moist solution pans out for Wednesday night, we could get enough moisture to saturate to the top of the inversion, and there is ample CAPE (>3000 J/kg) above the inversion, that we could get some overnight storms in the southeast.
(Tonight through Wednesday) The forecast remains on track this evening with low temperatures tonight expected in the low to mid 60s across the area. 12 Previous short-term discussion: (This afternoon through Wednesday) Height rises are occurring this afternoon as the mid-level ridge axis, extending from the 594dam height center over Mexico, shifts east across Central Alabama. Under the effects of deep ridging, temperatures will climb into the mid to upper 80s this afternoon with some spots potentially hitting 90F. Warm conditions are expected once again with temperatures rising from the lower to mid 60s during the morning to the upper 80s by afternoon as flow becomes more zonal aloft.