Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
High pressure both at the surface and in the upper levels of the atmosphere will remain centered over the area through Tuesday. Otherwise, the higher concern for potential high impact weather will come for the second half of the week.
159 AM EDT Mon Jul 14 2025 Bermuda high pressure along with an inland trough will dominate with mainly localized showers and thunderstorms each afternoon.
Not much change to the synoptic environment tomorrow as high pressure centered off to the southwest continues to promote hot and dry conditions across eastern Utah and western Colorado. High pressure will continue to support hot and dry conditions, with increased PoPs in the afternoon. Unsurprisingly, the greatest chances for precipitation tend to be over the high terrain. On Tuesday PWATs are near or below normal, which may allow for convection over the high terrain, including dry thunderstorms.
Also, some models, mainly the NAM have a weak upper low later tonight/Tuesday morning over the region.
224 AM EDT Mon Jul 14 2025 A slow moving cold front will support a few showers and thunderstorms overnight. Mild and muggy ahead of the cold front, we will also continue to see some showers or even a thunderstorm overnight, along with some fog in areas. The cold front slowly exits off to our east and southeast today, followed by the trough axis moving through region. We should see lower humidity levels today, along with somewhat cooler mercury readings with highs in the low to mid 80s. Weak surface based ridging builds into the region tonight with dry weather lasting through Tuesday.
1224 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025 Updated at 1223 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025 - Continued shower/thunderstorm chances today, mainly in/near the higher terrain (40-60% there, 10-40% elsewhere). WV imagery this afternoon shows an upper ridge just off the coast of SoCal, buttressed by a stubborn trough anchored over central Texas. Monday, the trough is forecast to move little, but thicknesses will begin increasing over West Texas and Southeast New Mexico, beginning a gradual-but-steady warming trend. The LLJ is forecast to strengthen a little, but temperatures should remain near tonight's, if not a skosh warmer as a result.
1227 AM MDT Mon Jul 14 2025 - An upper level trough brings a Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms Monday evening.
High temperatures should reach 80s in the lowlands and mid 70s to 80s in the mountains today, then overnight lows are expected to range from 60 to 70 degrees across the area. A front remains stalled just northwest of the forecast area through Tuesday, then the boundary should be lifted to the north as a warm front due to a low exiting the central US and heading towards the Great Lakes.
Areas farther north will feel a little cooler but still humid.
1107 PM MDT Sun Jul 13 2025 - An upper level trough brings a Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms Monday evening.
The H500 trough that has been in place the last few days will linger over the region and continue to influence rain chances across the state for another day or two more. From Tue-Wed the mid-level trough will likely be absorbed into the zonal flow north of the area and ridging across the SE US will expand W/NW toward the Lower MS River Valley/Southern Plains.
216 AM EDT Mon Jul 14 2025 Sub-tropical high pressure will extend from near Bermuda to the Carolinas throughout the week. The highest probabilities will be in the NW-N Piedmont regions. The highest probabilities of thunderstorms is over the NW-N Piedmont per the latest CAMS and guidance. This is where the latest CAMS suggest the higher POP and this goes along with the latest soil moisture levels that remain very high in the northern part of the Triad east to Hillsborough and Roxboro.
Broad troughing over the north central CONUS will bring cooler than average temps and push most of the instability south of our region through mid to late week.
136 AM EDT Mon Jul 14 2025 Sub-tropical high pressure will extend from near Bermuda to the Carolinas throughout the week. The back-door cold front that sank into northeastern North Carolina had dissipated by this morning, with minimal convergence looking at surface observations. Lows will be in the low to mid 70s. There will be minimal change in the surface pattern, although it appears that a weak trough will try to cross the region tomorrow. Slightly greater cloud coverage should keep highs a degree or two cooler than today, although lows should remain similar.
913 PM PDT Sun Jul 13 2025 A little warmer inland Monday.
High pressure both at the surface and in the upper levels of the atmosphere will remain centered over the area through Tuesday. Otherwise, the higher concern for potential high impact weather will come for the second half of the week. High impact weather may develop over our marine areas for the second half of the week as a potential tropical cyclone could bring increased rain, wind, and seas.
1132 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025 - Above average high temperatures /in the lower to mid 90s/ are expected through Tuesday for most locations.
High pressure continue to gradually shift eastward through the start of this week. Hi-res guidance this morning points towards the higher terrain again being the main focus this afternoon, eventually moving off the terrain later this afternoon as outflow boundaries begin to drive the show.
The one thing to note is that the mid-level ridge doesn't push as far through the area as previously expected and some mid-level energy along with deeper moisture will remain close enough through Tuesday to warrant some low end PoPs (20%) each day along the Rio Grande. The remainder of the area should be pretty dry this week as drier air will be in place along with the mid-level ridging. Although confidence is on the lower side with regards to how widespread MVFR ceilings will spread, so will monitor tonight and issue amendments as needed.
- Scattered thunderstorms are expected this afternoon in response to an upper trough. - An upper ridge will build over the region through midweek, lowering precipitation chances while supporting a warming trend.
335 AM EDT Mon Jul 14 2025 Sub-tropical high pressure will extend from near Bermuda to the Carolinas throughout the week. The highest probabilities will be in the NW-N Piedmont regions. The highest probabilities of thunderstorms is over the NW-N Piedmont per the latest CAMS and guidance. This is where the latest CAMS suggest the higher POP and this goes along with the latest soil moisture levels that remain very high in the northern part of the Triad east to Hillsborough and Roxboro.
It's another hot one out there today with highs in the low 100s and upper 90s across the valleys. Sierra communities will see highs in the low 90s again today.
In addition to hotter than normal temperatures, much of our forecast area will continue to experience hazy skies as smoke from area wildfires circulates under the bubble of high pressure. Meanwhile, a cut-off low will develop off the coast of the Baja Peninsula during the middle of the week, which will help to transport moisture back into the area towards the end of the week.
1143 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025 - Warmer and humid through Tuesday.
Temperatures will slowly climb back toward normals in the lower 90s by the weekend.
629 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025 Updated at 625 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025 - Continued shower/thunderstorm chances today, mainly in/near the higher terrain (20-50% there, 10-30% elsewhere). (Today through Tuesday afternoon) The synoptic pattern remains similar to before: a mid-level ridge is still evident over the southwestern CONUS, while the trough continues to sit over central Texas. Overall, given the continued lack of appreciable forcing across much of our area, the forecast today looks similar to that of yesterday: the best rain chances (20-50%) are in/near the higher terrain (ie the Davis Mountains down towards the Big Bend) due mainly to upslope flow. Meanwhile, rogue outflow boundaries or weak disturbances rounding the edge of the ridge could generate a few isolated showers and thunderstorms elsewhere (10-20%).
551 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025 (Today through Tuesday) A deep-layer ridge axis will hold firm over the region today which should keep convection isolated this afternoon and evening. To our east, an inverted trough associated with a tropical disturbance, will move westward, bringing enhanced moisture and a focus for convection across Georgia. This activity should remain east of our forecast area today, but as the trough continues to move westward, thunderstorm activity may become quite robust on Tuesday across the eastern half of our forecast area.
727 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025 - Scattered thunderstorms are expected this afternoon in response to an upper trough. - An upper ridge will build over the region through midweek, lowering precipitation chances while supporting a warming trend.
645 AM EDT Mon Jul 14 2025 Sub-tropical high pressure will extend from near Bermuda to the Carolinas throughout the week. The highest probabilities will be in the NW-N Piedmont regions. The highest probabilities of thunderstorms is over the NW-N Piedmont per the latest CAMS and guidance. This is where the latest CAMS suggest the higher POP and this goes along with the latest soil moisture levels that remain very high in the northern part of the Triad east to Hillsborough and Roxboro.
A frontal zone separating much warmer air to the south vs cooler air north will be over northern ND into far northern MN today. Wendesday will see continued shower in the cooler airmass well north of the front as a short wave moves east thru the area.
651 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025 Through Tonight: Models indicate that the perisistent trough to our west will continue to influence the diurnal convective pattern in the near term with more isolated to scattered coverage of mainly afternoon and early evening convection and slightly hotter afternoon highs.
623 AM EDT Mon Jul 14 2025 Hot temperatures and scattered thunderstorms to start the week with weak upper ridging in place. The ridge then breaks down, leading to lower daytime temperatures and higher rain chances during the mid-week period. A new upper ridge should then build in from the east to end the week with slowly warming temperatures. It will be another hot day with temperatures into the low to mid 90s. Upper ridging weakens during the period as an area of low pressure moves across Florida and into the northern Gulf. At the surface, strengthening Bermuda high pressure will continue to advect high moisture into the region.
A surface and upper ridge of high pressure remains anchored to the immediate east of Middle Tennessee, so there has been no change in air mass characteristics.
High pressure aloft will build deeper into the Lower Mississippi River Valley today, with troughing and a mid/upper level low pressure system developing to our west across the southern plains states, into the mid-south, and mid-Mississippi River Valley. Highs will top out in the low to middle 90s with dew points only mixing into the low and middle 70s.
622 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025 High pressure both at the surface and in the upper levels of the atmosphere will remain centered over the area through Tuesday. Otherwise, the higher concern for potential high impact weather will come for the second half of the week. High impact weather may develop over our marine areas for the second half of the week as a potential tropical cyclone could bring increased rain, wind, and seas.
319 AM PDT Mon Jul 14 2025 High pressure across California will bring slight warming today.
The moisture and approach of a stronger longer- wave trough will create widespread SHRA/TSRA in the aftn/evening, mainly over the eastern half of the area. The cold front pulls slowly moves through the area Monday evening into Tuesday morning, allowing for a brief period of no precipitation across central Pennsylvania through the morning hours on Tuesday. Approach of a deeper upper trough from the west is a good signal that storms will form again midday Monday. Most of the storms will be SE of IPT-UNV-AOO depending on timing of the trough axis, but a few are possible to the NW of that area.
The one thing to note is that the mid-level ridge doesn't push as far through the area as previously expected and some mid-level energy along with deeper moisture will remain close enough through Tuesday to warrant some low end PoPs (20%) each day along the Rio Grande. The remainder of the area should be pretty dry this week as drier air will be in place along with the mid-level ridging.
518 AM EDT Mon Jul 14 2025 Drier weather will slowly return today behind the cold front but a few showers or a thunderstorm will still be possible. The cold front slowly exits off to our east and southeast today, followed by the trough axis moving through region. We should see lower humidity levels today, along with somewhat cooler mercury readings with highs in the low to mid 80s. Weak surface based ridging builds into the region tonight with dry weather lasting through Tuesday.
520 AM MDT Mon Jul 14 2025 - Warmer today with highs in the mid 90s across the plains. Scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms, mainly over the higher elevations.
High pressure will continue to support hot and dry conditions, with increased PoPs in the afternoon. Unsurprisingly, the greatest chances for precipitation tend to be over the high terrain. On Tuesday PWATs are near or below normal, which may allow for convection over the high terrain, including dry thunderstorms.
606 AM EDT Mon Jul 14 2025 Drier weather will slowly return today behind the cold front but a few showers or a thunderstorm will still be possible. Sfc analysis shows the cold front working into the region this morning, low clouds and maybe some light drizzle will be possible as it sinks southeast. the cold front slowly exits off to our east and southeast today, followed by the trough axis moving through the region. We should see lower humidity levels today, along with somewhat cooler mercury readings with highs in the low to mid 80s. Weak surface based ridging builds into the region tonight with dry weather lasting through Tuesday.
550 AM EDT Mon Jul 14 2025 Bermuda high pressure along with an inland trough will dominate with mainly localized showers and thunderstorms each afternoon.
311 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025 - Warmer and humid through Tuesday.
239 PM MDT Mon Jul 14 2025 - Warmer today with highs in the mid 90s across the plains. Scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms, mainly over the higher elevations.
143 PM EDT Mon Jul 14 2025 Bermuda high pressure along with an inland trough will dominate with mainly localized showers and thunderstorms each afternoon. Synoptic pattern remains essentially the same through the near term period perhaps a slightly stronger ridge to the west Tuesday.
Maximum heat index values reaching the lower 90s for Tue-Wed. - Thunderstorms are looking likely for Wed afternoon and evening due to a wave of low pressure and cold front moving through srn WI.
Zonal H5 flow prevails through the next several days, with ridging supported in the southeast CONUS and a deep H5 trough over the Hudson Bay.
As the upper level trough swings through the Canadian border later this evening, the mid-level low continues to amplify and nearly cuts off completely from the associated upper level jet as it pushes into our region. At the surface, a strong cold front will continue to mature becoming increasingly thermally-packed. This front will induce a strong northeasterly to southwesterly pressure gradient across the divide through much of the day on Tuesday forcing north and easterly winds over and through mountain gaps similar to a wintertime âArcticâ cold front.
1138 AM MDT Mon Jul 14 2025 - Warmer today with highs in the mid 90s across the plains. Scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms, mainly over the higher elevations.
Mid level ridge axis builds east across the region late tonight into Tuesday morning. High temperatures on Tuesday will top out in the mid to upper 80s to around 90 with lows Tuesday night generally in the lower 70s. While strong troughs and fronts remain absent during this summer pattern, weak impulses (many the result of meso scale convective features) will be all that it takes to trigger convection in our area.
From synopsis, weak low pressure tries to develop in the vicinity of Florida heading through the first half of the week. As the weak low pressure area shifts to the west and high pressure builds in behind, breezes will freshen becoming southeast to south at first, before becoming east to southeast for mid to late week.
The upper trough which was stretching from the Upper Midwest into the southeast Plains has moved east into the Ohio Valley today. The southern end of this trough has fractured into a vorticity chain stretching from southwest Texas up into southwest Missouri and sandwiched between ridges over the Southeastern and Southwestern U. The vort chain will drift northeast across Missouri and Illinois through Tuesday as the two ridges slowly close ranks over the lower Mississippi Valley.
(This afternoon through Tuesday night) The southern plains continues to be under a broad trough separating high pressure to both the east and the west of the region. The panhandles remains in a relatively more stable section of this broad trough with the better instability and moisture to the south. In fact there appears to be a small branch of high pressure that is pushing into the panhandles today.
148 PM EDT Mon Jul 14 2025 Sub-tropical high pressure will extend from near Bermuda to the Carolinas throughout the week. The highest probabilities will be in the NW-N Piedmont regions. The highest probabilities of thunderstorms is over the NW-N Piedmont per the latest CAMS and guidance. This is where the latest CAMS suggest the higher POP and this goes along with the latest soil moisture levels that remain very high in the northern part of the Triad east to Hillsborough and Roxboro.
Elsewhere, drier air associated with ridging over the Gulf will limit rain potential for the CWA through the weekend. Temperatures will trend near to slightly above seasonal, with highs ranging from the low 90s along the coast to upper 90s inland. With confidence on the lower side, we will continue to monitor conditions and issue amendments as needed, particularly for KVCT, KCOT, and KLRD.
Interior areas will be feeling much cooler as increasing onshore flow and a deepening marine layer usher in cooler air off the ocean.
An unsettled pattern expected to continue the next couple of a days as a low pressure system currently off the east coast of FL traverses west over FL before exiting into the Gulf sometime tomorrow. Currently the National Hurricane Center has this area marked with a low (20%) chance of developing into a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours and a low (30%) chance in the next 7 days. Conditions quiet overnight before ramping back up tomorrow morning Marine conditions will continue to deteriorate the over the next couple of days as a low pressure system moves over FL from the Atlantic into the NE Gulf. Winds will increase overnight Tuesday and stay elevated through the end of the week as the low moves through the Gulf.
1227 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025 - Scattered thunderstorms are expected this afternoon in response to an upper trough. - An upper ridge will build over the region through midweek, lowering precipitation chances while supporting a warming trend.
Updated at 1244 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025 - Shower/thunderstorm chances continue through the end of the week, mainly in/near the higher terrain (30-70% there, 10-30% elsewhere). (This afternoon through Tuesday night) WV imagery this afternoon shows an upper ridge extending from just of the SoCal coast into the Central Plains, and another covering the Gulf Coast states, with a stubborn col running SW-NE through Texas. Aside from the usual orographic activity over the higher terrain due to easterly upslope flow, CAMs develop a region of convection to the southeast in line w/the orientation of the col, and this will result in isolated convection tonight, mainly over the lower Trans Pecos. Tuesday night, the LLJ increases a bit, and mixing will keep overnight lows a couple of degrees warmer than tonight.
159 PM EDT Mon Jul 14 2025 Hot temperatures and scattered thunderstorms this afternoon with weak upper ridging in place. The ridge is then expected to break down, leading to lower daytime temperatures and higher rain chances during the mid-week period. A new upper ridge should then build in from the east to end the week with slowly warming temperatures. The lower PWAT air will likely limit convection slightly, but the overall extent of coverage should still be at least chance. High temperatures will also be lower on Tuesday as 1000/ 850 mb thicknesses fall to 1415 m (or about 10 m cooler than Monday) due to the undercutting TUTT.
1127 AM EDT Mon Jul 14 2025 A weak cold front will cross the area today with just a few showers and thunderstorms. Weak cold front continuing to move through the region late this morning and should exit south and east of the area this afternoon. We should see lower humidity levels today, along with temperatures not as warm as over the weekend with highs in the lower to mid 80s. Weak surface based ridging builds into the region tonight with dry weather lasting through Tuesday.
* Tuesday still looks like the driest day of the next seven with a brief visit from high pressure. However, the high pressure advancing from the NW is not strong at all, and the southern border will still be at risk for sct SHRA/TSRA.
1134 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025 Updated at 1133 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025 - Continued shower/thunderstorm chances today, mainly in/near the higher terrain (20-50% there, 10-30% elsewhere). (Today through Tuesday afternoon) The synoptic pattern remains similar to before: a mid-level ridge is still evident over the southwestern CONUS, while the trough continues to sit over central Texas. Overall, given the continued lack of appreciable forcing across much of our area, the forecast today looks similar to that of yesterday: the best rain chances (20-50%) are in/near the higher terrain (ie the Davis Mountains down towards the Big Bend) due mainly to upslope flow. Meanwhile, rogue outflow boundaries or weak disturbances rounding the edge of the ridge could generate a few isolated showers and thunderstorms elsewhere (10-20%).
1243 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025 High pressure both at the surface and in the upper levels of the atmosphere will remain centered over the area through Tuesday. Otherwise, the higher concern for potential high impact weather will come for the second half of the week. High impact weather may develop over our marine areas for the second half of the week as a potential tropical cyclone could bring increased rain, wind, and seas.
* Tuesday still looks like the driest day of the next seven with a brief visit from high pressure. However, the high pressure advnacing from the NW is not strong at all, and the southern border will still be at risk for sct SHRA/TSRA. The cold front pulls slowly moves through the area Monday evening into Tuesday morning, allowing for a brief period of no precipitation across central Pennsylvania through the morning hours on Tuesday. Approach of a deeper upper trough from the west is a good signal that storms will form again midday Monday. Most of the storms will be SE of IPT-UNV-AOO depending on timing of the trough axis, but a few are possible to the NW of that area.
1201 PM MDT Mon Jul 14 2025 - An upper level trough brings a Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms Monday evening.
Also, some models, mainly the NAM have a weak upper low later tonight/Tuesday morning over the region. (Tuesday night through next Monday) The global models are indicating pretty much an end to the unsettled pattern and more of an upper level ridge over our area through this weekend. As a result, expect warmer temperatures and mainly dry weather.
(Tuesday night through next Monday) The global models are indicating pretty much an end to the unsettled pattern and more of an upper level ridge over our area through this weekend. As a result, expect warmer temperatures and mainly dry weather.
114 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025 - Warmer and muggier today and Tuesday with highs in the mid-80s to near 90s.