Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
- Somewhat cooler temperatures are expected over Phillips, Petroleum and northern Valley Counties today which will allow the Heat Advisory there to be cancelled.
447 AM EDT Wed Aug 20 2025 * A warm/cold front tandem arrives from eastern Ohio today and brings numerous showers and isolated to scattered thunderstorms. * High pressure over eastern Canada will help keep Erin offshore and PA dry as the hurricane passes our latitude. * A refreshing taste of Fall likely to arrive into the last week of August Widespread stratus and stratocu within a llvl cold air damming regime led to overnight min temps generally in the low to mid 60s across the CWA. Increasing low to mid level theta-E advection aimed at our Central and NW Mtns was supporting an area of showers and a few TSRa across Western PA INVOF of a sfc quasi-stnry front banked up along the Western Ridges of the Laurels and NW Mtns.
- Cooler and drier conditions remain likely for the latter part of the week and into the weekend.
253 AM EDT Wed Aug 20 2025 Scattered shower and thunderstorm chances can be expected with the passage of a weak cold front today. KEY MESSAGES: - Cold front and associated upper trough brings scattered showers/storms this morning and afternoon.
230 AM CDT Wed Aug 20 2025 - Mild temperatures are expected the next few days, but a cold front this weekend will bring the potential for the coolest air we've seen in months. Our heat relieving cold front has finally pushed fully south of our forecast area, and northerly winds are bringing some slightly cooler and slightly less humid air into the region. About 30 to 50 percent of 00Z HREF members produce measurable precipitation across the northern portion of our forecast area, while the lower resolution LREF guidance is even higher especially over western Illinois.
506 AM MDT Wed Aug 20 2025 - Wednesday will see near record high temperatures as high pressure continues, with some locations east of the Continental Divide hitting 100 degrees.
- The passage of a low pressure system and cold front late Thursday afternoon through Thursday night will bring a 40 to 70 percent chance of precipitation, with a marginal risk (level1 out of 5) of severe storms.
A sfc cold front has now pushed through nearly all of central KY, extending from western PA southwest through eastern KY and far southern KY. Highs this afternoon are expected to range from the low to mid 80s in southern IN and north-central KY to the upper 80s in southern KY. The morning will likely start out mostly cloudy with a few patches of fog around, but overall should be a more comfortable "feel" than the past few days a dew points begin to fall off this afternoon and highs only look to reach into the low and mid 80s for most. Will likely still hold onto some values around 90 across our S, but overall notably cooler/less humid than yesterday.
651 AM CDT Wed Aug 20 2025 Upper ridging remains in control of the forecast across the region for one more day maintaining deep layer northerly flow over the forecast area. Upper troughing slowly shifts into the area while upper ridging retrogrades westward late week into the weekend, helping to slowly cool temperatures down and increasing rain chances. Overnight lows generally stay in the lower to middle 70's through the end of the week.
Cold front itself will be near a Roseau-Fargo line at 00z Fri. Bulk shear is sufficient 30-40 kts, but main mid level jet remains more so in southern Saskatchewan into Manitoba closer to the parent upper low in northern Saskatchewan. Cooler airmass in place.
A dry and weak cold front will be pushing through the Northern Rockies today into Thursday morning. Temperatures today are anticipated to be around 5 degrees cooler compared to yesterday. A low pressure system over central Canada continues to show a cooler airmass being pushed southward into central Montana by Thursday night. A strong ridge of high pressure is still on track to develop over the region this weekend causing temperatures to warm back to around 6 to 12 degrees above seasonal averages. The low valleys of central Idaho including Orofino to Riggins will once again break well into the 100s. Gusty westerly winds are expected to develop across the region as a weak dry cold front pushes through the Northern Rockies.
Upper level ridge axis stretches across the Northern Plains today with attendant low level thermal ridge developing over the CWA. Afternoon temperatures will climb into the upper 90s to low 100s across most of the CWA with highs in the upper 80s across the higher elevations of the Black Hills. Upper low over Canada scrapes by the region with attendant sfc trof/cool front pushing through the CWA during the day Thursday.
(Tonight through Thursday Night) Middle Tennessee is currently situated amidst a positively-tilted upper-level trough that stretches generally from Texas through the Great Lakes.
Cooler conditions will continue today with weak troughing over the region. High pressure will build over the Pacific Northwest late this week and remain situated across the region through the weekend for warmer and drier conditions.
High pressure will bring warm and mostly dry conditions to the region today. An area of high pressure continues to strengthen across the Four Corners region today, resulting in continued hot and dry conditions across Utah and southwest Wyoming. These values are sufficient enough to see some high-based, mainly dry showers and thunderstorms developing across the high terrain of the aforementioned those areas this afternoon, which will be capable of producing gusty and erratic outflow winds.
Highs will range from the low to mid 90s each day with apparent temperatures ranging between 103-107 degrees.
Central NC is currently wedged between Hurricane Erin off the southeast coast and an upper trough and associated cold front over the Great Lakes/Midwest region. Overnight lows in the lower 70s are expected.
Dry weather returns Thursday and will continue for much of the week, with temperatures trending warmer towards the weekend.
The large upper level ridge that had helped to bring unusually hot/humid conditions to parts of our area the last several days has started its slide to the west. The lower heights are likely to lead to slightly lower highs in the short term as well.
- Cooler and wetter weather arrives this weekend with the conditions lasting into next work week. This morning's upper-air maps show the upper-level ridge has shifted northward since yesterday, centering itself around the Four Corners region. There is still an isolated chance for afternoon showers and storms today and Wednesday, but coverage will be sparse with little precipitation expected, and the lower elevations are generally expected to remain dry. Still looking like Thursday will be the warmest day of the week as the lower elevations will see the mid to upper 90s. Ensembles continue to show decent agreement that this will traverse across southern Canada through the week, flattening out the Four Corners ridge by Thursday.
714 AM EDT Wed Aug 20 2025 Scattered shower and thunderstorm chances can be expected with the passage of a weak cold front today. KEY MESSAGES: - Cold front and associated upper trough brings scattered showers/storms this morning and afternoon.
With that being said, the region will remain sandwiched between the ridge to our West, and a tightening pressure gradient from Hurricane Erin to our east. As such, hot and humid conditions will remain, with lows tonight and tomorrow dropping into the low-70s, and highs tomorrow ranging in the low to mid-90s.
A broad upper trof evolves over the southeastern states through Thursday, and a weak surface trof will also be oriented roughly east- west over the forecast area.
235 PM CDT Wed Aug 20 2025 - High pressure will dominate through the remainder of the week, with humidity trending down.
- Cold front tonight will bring much cooler temperatures from tomorrow through the weekend ahead. This could be modulated a bit by outflows from thunderstorms to the north of the forecast area grabbing that cooler air and shoving it southward a bit faster than models anticipate.
Partial sunshine has allowed temps in southern KY to warm into the low to mid 80s. Tonight and Thursday, steady N to NE winds are expected as high pressure settles over the Great Lakes. Highs on Thursday will top out in the low to mid 80s.
Slightly warmer temperatures and higher dew points are anticipated this afternoon through early evening, particularly in and around river valleys across western/central SD. Upper level ridge axis stretches across the Northern Plains today with attendant low level thermal ridge developing over the CWA. Afternoon temperatures will climb into the upper 90s to low 100s across most of the CWA with highs in the upper 80s across the higher elevations of the Black Hills. Upper low over Canada scrapes by the region with attendant sfc trof/cool front pushing through the CWA during the day Thursday.
The surface map indicates a cold front has dropped south into KY through southern MO near the position of a weak 5h trough. There is also a weak wedge front lining the lower Appalachians through central GA. Additional development will occur along the higher terrain and perhaps near the wedge front as well, although this boundary is rather diffuse.
Through Wednesday, this synoptic pattern will help keep the high temperatures near-seasonable. With the high pressure system building over, temps will then slightly increase few degrees above normal Thursday as the RHs also begins trending downward. No fire weather concerns are to be anticipated for these days, given that the winds not overlapping as much with the low RHs.
1227 PM CDT Wed Aug 20 2025 Upper ridging remains in control of the forecast across the region for one more day maintaining deep layer northerly flow over the forecast area. Upper troughing slowly shifts into the area while upper ridging retrogrades westward late week into the weekend, helping to slowly cool temperatures down and increasing rain chances. Overnight lows generally stay in the lower to middle 70's through the end of the week.
- A weak upper level ridge aloft and northerly flow will bring about hot and humid conditions today with late in the afternoon thunderstorms which may bring locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds.
On the other hand, EC suggests enough moisture may linger in the lower levels through the rest of the week, and that moisture could support cloudline development. Otherwise, as we approach the end of the week and head into the weekend, the high pressure transversing the area will encourage a lack of cloud cover and nearly stagnant air.
(This evening through Thursday night) An approaching trough will linger over the area into the weekend.
The upper level ridge of high pressure is west of the area allowing slightly cooler conditions across the area this afternoon with highs closer to normal with temperatures in the upper 80s to lower 90s.
130 PM MDT Wed Aug 20 2025 KEY MESSAGES: - A cold front tonight will trigger scattered thunderstorms that will bring gusty/erratic winds and some dry lightning. But cooler weather will follow and remain in place through the weekend. WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: An upper ridge that brought us the heat the past couple days is being flattened by an upper low moving east into the Prairie Provinces. This low will bring a cooler airmass into the area, knocking temperatures to around seasonal averages the next few days. Thankfully, cooler air will filter into the area Thursday on northwest winds. Moisture with the upper low over central and eastern Canada will stay well to our north and east.
- Slightly cooler and drier conditions through the weekend. (Through Tonight) Slightly cooler conditions are expected this afternoon, but dew points remain high, so parts of the area will still see heat index values climb to near 105 degrees this afternoon. (Thursday through Wednesday) Slightly cooler, but still hot, weather will continue Thursday through the weekend, with most places seeing daytime highs in the low to mid 90s.
- The passage of a low pressure system and cold front late Thursday afternoon through Thursday night comes with a 40 to 70 percent chance of precipitation, with a marginal risk (level 1 out of 5) of severe weather.
- Temperatures will trend cooler behind a cold front through the end of the week.
H5 ridge continues to flatten this afternoon, with an upper low approaching from the northwest. A pre-frontal trough is expected to move into northeastern North Dakota late this afternoon and evening, bringing a chance for strong to severe thunderstorms to portions of northeastern North Dakota. As the cold front moves into the area later on Thursday, this line of showers and storms could strengthen and produce another round of strong to severe storms during the afternoon and evening.
(Rest of Today and Tonight) The surface map indicates a cold front has dropped south into KY through southern MO near the position of a weak 5h trough. There is also a weak wedge front lining the lower Appalachians through central GA. Additional development will occur along the higher terrain and perhaps near the wedge front as well, although this boundary is rather diffuse.
207 PM EDT Wed Aug 20 2025 - High pressure will bring dry and seasonably mild weather through the remainder of this work week. - Significant changes still expected this weekend as a strong cold front crosses the region. That increasing sun is helping modify the airmass, with current temperatures in the lower to middle 70s. Details: Really not much to talk about through Thursday as high pressure dominates our weather. likely most widespread for areas north of the big bridge.
134 PM EDT Wed Aug 20 2025 A cold front will bring showers and storms to the area today.
1124 AM EDT Wed Aug 20 2025 An area of low pressure, with its inverted trough stretching northward across Western New York, will track south of the state line today with scattered afternoon showers. Northeast flow will maintain pleasantly cool afternoon temperatures in the lower to mid 70s.
1101 AM CDT Wed Aug 20 2025 (Rest of Today and Tonight) The surface map indicates a cold front has dropped south into KY through southern MO near the position of a weak 5h trough. There is also a weak wedge front lining the lower Appalachians through central GA. Additional development will occur along the higher terrain and perhaps near the wedge front as well, although this boundary is rather diffuse.
1149 AM MDT Wed Aug 20 2025 - Wednesday will see near record high temperatures as high pressure continues, with some locations east of the Continental Divide hitting 100 degrees.
247 PM EDT Wed Aug 20 2025 Scattered shower and thunderstorm chances can be expected with the passage of a weak cold front through tonight.
1119 AM EDT Wed Aug 20 2025 Cooler air will filter into the area through Thursday night, with near to slightly below average temperatures expected while expansive cloud cover lingers until Thursday evening.
436 PM EDT Wed Aug 20 2025 Scattered shower and thunderstorm chances can be expected with the passage of a weak cold front through tonight.
Drier conditions will move in along and in the wake of a cold front expected to stall just south of the TN Valley late Thursday night. This will result in cooler temperatures and a mostly dry forecast Thursday with highs in the upper 80s/lower 90s and less than 20% chances for rain with the best chances south of the TN River.
608 PM CDT Wed Aug 20 2025 - A weak upper level ridge aloft and northerly flow will bring about hot and humid conditions today with late in the afternoon thunderstorms which may bring locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds.
While high pressure will bring anomalous heat into the start of the weekend, a marked monsoonal moisture surge looks to set in and bring a change to a cooler and wetter pattern. Afternoon water vapor imagery shows an expansive ridge of high pressure more of less centered atop the Four Corners region. While the ridge is resulting in yet another anomalously warm day at most locations around the region, it is positioned in such a way that some modest return of mid level moisture is noted. Through the remainder of the work week, the strength and position of the ridge will allow for a continuation of the ongoing anomalous warmth.
753 PM EDT Wed Aug 20 2025 Scattered shower and thunderstorm chances can be expected with the passage of a weak cold front through tonight.
553 PM MDT Wed Aug 20 2025 - High pressure overhead keeps hot and dry conditions in our area through the end of the week. - Confidence is high that moisture will return tomorrow, increasing chances of precipitation and bringing some cooler temperatures for the weekend. Flow around the high pressure will tap into moisture to our south and bring it into the region and will bring a prolonged period of afternoon and evening convection. Coverage will be over the higher terrain to start of Thursday but with such dry subcloud layers, would expect more virga than wetting rain though some precip may hit the ground.
754 PM EDT Wed Aug 20 2025 - High pressure will bring dry and seasonably mild weather through the remainder of this work week. - Significant changes still expected this weekend as a strong cold front crosses the region. That increasing sun is helping modify the airmass, with current temperatures in the lower to middle 70s. Details: Really not much to talk about through Thursday as high pressure dominates our weather. likely most widespread for areas north of the big bridge.
As the high pressure system starts to build over Thursday, temps will continue slightly increasing by a few degrees above normal as the daytime RHs trend downward.
732 PM EDT Wed Aug 20 2025 A cold front will bring showers and storms to the area today.
643 PM CDT Wed Aug 20 2025 - High pressure will dominate through the remainder of the week, with humidity trending down.
536 PM CDT Wed Aug 20 2025 - Slightly cooler and drier conditions through the weekend. (Through Tonight) Slightly cooler conditions are expected this afternoon, but dew points remain high, so parts of the area will still see heat index values climb to near 105 degrees this afternoon. (Thursday through Wednesday) Slightly cooler, but still hot, weather will continue Thursday through the weekend, with most places seeing daytime highs in the low to mid 90s.
307 PM MDT Wed Aug 20 2025 - High pressure overhead keeps hot and dry conditions in our area through the end of the week. - Confidence is high that moisture will return tomorrow, increasing chances of precipitation and bringing some cooler temperatures for the weekend. Flow around the high pressure will tap into moisture to our south and bring it into the region and will bring a prolonged period of afternoon and evening convection. Coverage will be over the higher terrain to start of Thursday but with such dry subcloud layers, would expect more virga than wetting rain though some precip may hit the ground.
754 PM CDT Wed Aug 20 2025 (This evening through Thursday night) An approaching trough will linger over the area into the weekend.
747 PM EDT Wed Aug 20 2025 Cooler air will filter into the area through Thursday night, with near to slightly below average temperatures expected while expansive cloud cover lingers until Thursday evening.
626 PM CDT Wed Aug 20 2025 A broad upper trof evolves over the southeastern states through Thursday, and a weak surface trof will also be oriented roughly east- west over the forecast area.
Upper troughing extends across northern Florida and along the northern gulf coast states. With Florida situated between ridging to the south and trouging to the north, we will see a predominant onshore wind flow for the next few days.
- Rain chances return this weekend as low pressure drags a cold front through the area. The 00Z DTX sounding showed a couple deep inversions in the low levels. While there has been fluctuations in cloud coverage and ceiling heights during the late evening, the low level flow will veer more easterly through early Thurs morning. Differential cold advection in the low levels combined with moist flow off of the lakes has led to trapped moisture under the base of the midlevel inversion. Deep mid-upper level ridge will then build across the Great Lakes for the end of the week. Strong signal in anticyclone building overhead late Thursday and Friday.
This may lead to some light fog across the area particularly across central Missouri where the ridge axis will reside. High pressure will continue to be the main feature of interest tomorrow night into Friday before it finally shifts east of the area Friday night. This will force a cold front towards the area which may bring storms into northwest Missouri.
Clouds increase by the evening ahead of an incoming cold front.
Analysis fields and water vapor imagery suggest that the northwestern periphery of upper ridging over the northern Rockies is breaking down as an approaching midlevel trough brings height falls to the region. A prefrontal trough may bring an initial wind shift 3-6 hr prior to the front's arrival, which will lead to milder (though still warm) temperatures over our northwestern half tomorrow compared to today. Thermal ridge is shunted southwestward in earnest tomorrow afternoon/evening.
Low temperatures will generally be in the lower 60s.
Storms have begun to form across southern Canada, closer to the nose of the low level jet. H5 ridge continues to flatten this afternoon, with an upper low approaching from the northwest. A pre-frontal trough is expected to move into northeastern North Dakota late this afternoon and evening, bringing a chance for strong to severe thunderstorms to portions of northeastern North Dakota. As the cold front moves into the area later on Thursday, this line of showers and storms could strengthen and produce another round of strong to severe storms during the afternoon and evening.
This Afternoon and Thursday High pressure and upper ridging continue to influence the region's weather today into Thursday, allowing for predominantly dry conditions. Patchy fog appears probable again tonight into Thursday morning with a similar set-up to the past few days with high pressure overhead, light winds, and dewpoint depressions of 2 degrees or less. Surface cyclogenesis associated with this trough will allow a cold front to dive southeastward across the Upper Midwest on Friday, entering our area by Friday evening. 06z GFS/GEFS favor slightly warmer 850-700hPa temperatures (i.
1238 AM CDT Thu Aug 21 2025 - A cold front will enter into the region Thursday, allowing for afternoon highs to be a few degrees cooler. 24 hour difference across the region shows a cooler ArkLaTex when compared to this time yesterday.
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: A cold front moved through the forecast area last evening. High pressure will move into the area this morning with clearing skies.
154 AM EDT Thu Aug 21 2025 Drier and warmer weather is expected through the start of the weekend.
Surface ridging extends from the Great Lakes into the central plains. Highs today are forecast to be slightly cooler than yesterday, generally in the low to mid 80s. Surface ridging will remain anchored across the Great Lakes through the week before eventually moving eastward across the Ohio Valley through the weekend. The large scale pattern begins to change this weekend as an upper trough axis moves into the Great Lakes.
- High pressure will dominate through the remainder of the week, with humidity trending down.
358 AM EDT Thu Aug 21 2025 - High pressure will bring dry and seasonably mild weather through the remainder of the work week.