Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
204 AM MST Fri Jan 5 2024 The latest upper air analysis shows a closed low slowly moving eastward across the Southern Plains. A wide corridor of snow is extending north from the closed low over the forecast area. Ahead of the snow freezing fog continued, with the visibility as low as a quarter mile. In fact, with current visibilities of a mile or two under the broad snow band so far, am wondering if the current snow forecast is on the high side. Lows will be a few degrees cooler than last night due to the lower dew points in place. Highs should be a few degrees warmer than today, but not expecting much of an increase since the air mass has not changed yet.
Breezy northwest surface winds will ease after sunset as surface ridging builds in from the west under upper level northwest flow aloft.
548 AM CST Fri Jan 5 2024 (Today and tonight) Upper low will lift northeast into the Midwest states later today, with a drier airmass filtering into the region. Look for highs this afternoon in the mid and upper 50s, with a few readings in the lower 60s over far southeast counties.
530 AM CST Fri Jan 5 2024 - Freezing drizzle will bring minor travel impacts to portions of the area this morning. Persistent stratus and mist continue to impact the region this morning ahead of an upper low that will traverse the area today into Saturday. Soundings indicate a tendency to retain a favorable environment for freezing mist and/or drizzle through about mid morning before 925mb to 850mb temps cool enough to support dendrite development. Snow accumulations look to remain somewhat limited as the upper low passes to our southeast.
354 AM CST Fri Jan 5 2024 - Patchy freezing drizzle early this morning over much of the James River Valley into portions of far south central North Dakota. Main concern at current time is some freezing drizzle that developed over the James River Valley into parts of far south central North Dakota, where current Winter Weather Advisory is going. For today, first of all with respect to the freezing drizzle, soundings in the area of concern do indicate cloud development above the moist lower level which could start the seeder-feeder process and bring an end to the freezing drizzle as the early morning goes on.
730 AM CST Fri Jan 5 2024 - Freezing drizzle will bring minor travel impacts to portions of the area this morning. Continuing to see reports of freezing drizzle, with slick travel conditions creating those minor impacts this morning. Model soundings indicate the potential for a lingering warm nose aloft through the early afternoon before cooler air translates into the region. Persistent stratus and mist continue to impact the region this morning ahead of an upper low that will traverse the area today into Saturday. Soundings indicate a tendency to retain a favorable environment for freezing mist and/or drizzle through about mid morning before 925mb to 850mb temps cool enough to support dendrite development. Snow accumulations look to remain somewhat limited as the upper low passes to our southeast.
647 AM CST Fri Jan 5 2024 - Patchy freezing drizzle early this morning over much of the James River Valley into portions of far south central North Dakota. Main concern at current time is some freezing drizzle that developed over the James River Valley into parts of far south central North Dakota, where current Winter Weather Advisory is going. For today, first of all with respect to the freezing drizzle, soundings in the area of concern do indicate cloud development above the moist lower level which could start the seeder-feeder process and bring an end to the freezing drizzle as the early morning goes on.
630 AM EST Fri Jan 5 2024 Aviation A slight chance for flurries and/or freezing drizzle still exists for early this morning.
Simultaneously, a trough is poised to dig into the Pacific Northwest tonight.
521 AM CST Fri Jan 5 2024 - Patchy freezing drizzle possible through the morning hours today.
922 AM EST Fri Jan 5 2024 High pressure will provide dry weather today. Low pressure advancing from the southwest is forecast to bring accumulating snow on Saturday.
851 AM CST Fri Jan 5 2024 - Patchy freezing drizzle possible through the morning hours today.
558 AM EST Fri Jan 5 2024 High pressure will provide dry weather today. Low pressure advancing from the southwest is forecast to bring accumulating snow on Saturday.
409 AM CST Fri Jan 5 2024 - Freezing drizzle will bring minor travel impacts to portions of the area this morning. Persistent stratus and mist continue to impact the region this morning ahead of an upper low that will traverse the area today into Saturday. Soundings indicate a tendency to retain a favorable environment for freezing mist and/or drizzle through about mid morning before 925mb to 850mb temps cool enough to support dendrite development. Snow accumulations look to remain somewhat limited as the upper low passes to our southeast.
Colder mornings today and Saturday including freezing temperatures around Tucson metro.
We will continue to see clouds build into Middle TN ahead of an approaching upper level trough. High pressure that has controlled our wx the past 24 hours will slide east of our area today as a trough moves from the plains toward the Tennessee Valley. A few showers with the advancing trough may reach our far western counties late in the afternoon. A swath of rain will cross the Mid State tonight as the trough from the plains zips overhead. There will be no wintry impacts or accumulations as deep south southwest flow quickly warms and saturates the lowest 5kft of the atmospheric column.
Focus then shifts back to the northwest as a low-amplitude, dampening mid/upper level short wave trough moves across New Mexico. Scattered snow showers that develop on the higher terrain to our northwest will have a chance to move into the northwestern zones Saturday morning before lift peters out. Temperatures both tonight and Saturday will be heavily cloud cover dependent (increasing mid and high cloud overnight) in tandem with magnitude of surface dry advection this evening (current surface analysis suggests a limited potential for strong dry advection)that would favor the warmer end of MOS guidance for lows tonight. Persistent cloud cover through much of the day Saturday in addition to some low level cold advection with the passage of the mid/upper level trough will favor the cooler end of the range for highs.
1228 PM EST Fri Jan 5 2024 Aviation A slight chance for flurries and/or freezing drizzle still exists for early this morning.
1226 PM EST Fri Jan 5 2024 High pressure will provide dry weather today. Low pressure advancing from the southwest is forecast to bring accumulating snow on Saturday.
A period of weak forcing atop the saturated low levels is expected to produce scattered showers this evening turning to more drizzle or freezing drizzle overnight. Temps are likely to hover within a few degrees of freezing so no big travel impacts expected but this will be monitored through the evening.
1133 AM CST Fri Jan 5 2024 - Freezing drizzle in western/central Minnesota this morning could lead to hazardous travel early.
Further upstream, troughing will lift from the southern Great Plains towards the Great Lakes by Saturday morning. Forcing provided by this trough will support a broad area of surface pressure falls from the Gulf of Mexico up to the northern Great Plains. Mainly light west winds will go calm across many areas for a time tonight before increasing out of the southeast by Saturday morning as aforementioned low pressure works closer to the region. While forecast soundings display low-level moisture extending near 850mb at temperatures around 8-10C, confidence in potential freezing drizzle development is low due to currently large temperature-dewpoint spreads/slight inverted-V forecast sounding profiles. Thus, mention of freezing drizzle has not been included in the forecast -- but chances cannot be entirely ruled out. Overnight temperatures are expected to only cool into the low to mid 20s.
1114 AM CST Fri Jan 5 2024 (Today and tonight) Upper low will lift northeast into the Midwest states later today, with a drier airmass filtering into the region. Look for highs this afternoon in the mid and upper 50s, with a few readings in the lower 60s over far southeast counties.
1147 AM CST Fri Jan 5 2024 - Fog, very light freezing drizzle or drizzle will continue into sunrise this morning with a change over to snow in southwestern Nebraska.
Highs will reach the low to mid 40s for most areas.
A trough of low pressure is anticipated to dig into the Pacific northwest tonight into Saturday morning.
(This afternoon through Saturday night) Dry air filtering in within the northwest flow on the back-side of the departing upper low is yielding a quiet weekend across the region.
With this some light snow across the Tetons along with some light flurries east of the Divide with any measurable snowfall to be for the Lander foothills and Casper Mountain during the highest rates this evening as low level flows turns more northeasterly for a more favorable upslope condition. Induced upper level ridging will push across the CWA overnight and throughout Saturday that will give a quick break form the snowfall with average temperatures expected for this time of year.
A case could be made for the lower Snake River plain and the Marsh and Albion highlands could also necessitate a new Advisory as well. Once again, breezy to windy conditions in the extreme southwest corner continues, and should also see increased wind on the ridges in the central Idaho mountains and some of the eastern highlands. For Sat afternoon, the windy conditions in the southwest corner will allow some temperatures above freezing, but elsewhere expect below freezing and a continued cooling trend for Sun and even more on Mon.
The weather, however, will start to turn as a strong cold front heads are way overnight.
1132 AM CST Fri Jan 5 2024 - Patchy freezing drizzle possible through the morning hours today.
(This evening through Saturday) An axis of lighter precipitation is possible tonight as the main trough exits the region.
Satellite imagery highlights a potent mid-latitude cyclone moving northeast through the southern Plains. The vertical profile will be weakly inhibited Saturday afternoon, with modified (77/73) ML parcels in the low- end moderate CAPE range. CAM guidance agrees with our assessment of the mid-upper level lift outrunning the low level forcing, with a decaying squall line approaching the Keys Saturday evening, in tandem with diminishing low level kinematics.
With the base of the upper-trough forecast to linger across the region through tonight, skies will remain unsettled with ceilings forecast to fall to less than 1kft across most of the region. Mostly cloudy skies to persist through Saturday as a secondary upper-trough swings east across the region. However, could see clouds begin to lift from the southwest late on Saturday afternoon into the evening hours as weak ridging finally begins to build areawide. Temperatures on Saturday into Saturday night to range from highs in the lower 50s to lows near freezing.
A relatively dormant short wave is rounding the base of the long wave trough axis near the Baja, while a short wave trough slides east across the Gulf of Mexico. The 15 to 20 knot winds to the east of the Seven Mile Bridge should relax over the next several hours. Small Craft Should Exercise Caution across the Straits of Florida and Hawk Channel east of the Seven Mile Bridge, at least until winds decrease this afternoon. From synopsis, breezes will shift rapidly around the compass during the next five days, as a series of low pressure systems and associated fronts slide east through the Gulf of Mexico.
529 PM CST Fri Jan 5 2024 (This evening through Saturday) An axis of lighter precipitation is possible tonight as the main trough exits the region.
541 PM CST Fri Jan 5 2024 -Patchy freezing drizzle and freezing fog possible through this evening.
426 PM CST Fri Jan 5 2024 This Afternoon through Tomorrow: As an upper-level low pressure system pivots over Kansas this afternoon, a broad area of lift ahead of the system has been generating rain from the Gulf Coast into the Mid-South.
854 PM CST Fri Jan 5 2024 -Patchy freezing drizzle and freezing fog possible through this evening.
540 PM CST Fri Jan 5 2024 (This afternoon through Saturday Night) Clouds continue to build into Middle TN this afternoon ahead of an approaching trough. The cold front will move through tomorrow morning with showers ending from west to east after 7 am.
WAA and increasing low level moisture ahead of this developing system was responsible for much of the area having freezing drizzle today, with a few lingering areas this afternoon. Higher moisture in the far east and longer duration of lift will allow for the higher accumulations expected in that area of at least 2 inches of snowfall expected from a Roseau to Wadena line eastward.
Also got a few light freezing rain reports in southeastern ND a while ago, but think we should get some saturation in the dendritic layer shortly as more mid level moisture moves in. WAA and increasing low level moisture ahead of this developing system was responsible for much of the area having freezing drizzle today, with a few lingering areas this afternoon. Higher moisture in the far east and longer duration of lift will allow for the higher accumulations expected in that area of at least 2 inches of snowfall expected from a Roseau to Wadena line eastward.
21Z upper analysis shows a trough extending southward across the Dakotas/Nebraska to an upper low centered over SE Neb/NE KS. Areas of light snow/flurries are occurring across the forecast area as this first upper trough crosses the region. Another upper trough is currently dropping southeastward across Montana. Synoptic lift, and the potential for light snow, will increase again this evening as the second upper trough approaches the forecast area.
541 PM CST Fri Jan 5 2024 - Periods of light snow this weekend will lead to minor accumulations with the highest chances (20-40%) for 1" or greater across Taylor county.
657 PM CST Fri Jan 5 2024 This Afternoon through Tomorrow: As an upper-level low pressure system pivots over Kansas this afternoon, a broad area of lift ahead of the system has been generating rain from the Gulf Coast into the Mid-South.
512 PM CST Fri Jan 5 2024 (This afternoon through Saturday night) Dry air filtering in within the northwest flow on the back-side of the departing upper low is yielding a quiet weekend across the region.
(This afternoon through Saturday Night) Clouds continue to build into Middle TN this afternoon ahead of an approaching trough. The cold front will move through tomorrow morning with showers ending from west to east after 7 am.
However, wouldn't be surprised if the southern stream wave has enough energy to push some areas out of the stratus at least for a brief time before more stratus returns later on tonight as the backdoor cold front approaches from our northwest. However, none of this precipitation is reaching the ground due to dry air in the lower levels of the atmosphere. Otherwise, above normal temperatures will continue on Saturday as highs hover around freezing for most of the area.
- Strong low pressure to track south and east of Lake MI Tue- Wed. A 100-120 kt sly jet streak on the east side of the upper low over KS will lift the upper wave through srn WI on Sat and becoming negative tilt as it does so. A sely boundary layer flow and lake to 850 mb temp differences of 11-13C will contribute to lake enhanced snow for the lake counties, although sfc temps above freezing will limit the snow accum.
Winds will come down after sunset but are expected to veer more towards the north/northwest as a weak cold frontal boundary slowly drift south overnight. This will help to limit radiational cooling during the late overnight/early morning hours, keeping lows in the upper 20s to low 30s with most places hovering right around freezing. A secondary trough axis is associated with the large upper wave will move through the region during the day tomorrow. Highs will range from the lower 50s in the Big Country to the upper 50s/lower 60s further south.
312 PM CST Fri Jan 5 2024 -Patchy freezing drizzle and freezing fog possible through this evening.
Seas climb to 5 to 6 ft nearshore, up to 7 ft offshore and in the Gulf Stream as a cold front approaches. (00Z TAFS) VFR generally persist thru 06z-09z before CIGs drop to MVFR ahead of an approaching cold front.
213 AM EST Sat Jan 6 2024 High Impact Weather Potential: Mainly light snow today into tonight with the highest accumulations expected across eastern upper Michigan. Trough axis progged to cross the forecast area later this afternoon/evening. Attendant elongated area of low pressure stretched from the Great Lakes to Northeast states expected to following suit. Little in the way of sensible weather ongoing across the area currently, save for some lingering patchy freezing drizzle across eastern upper MI.
One of which is occurring in portions of NW AR ahead of an eastward-moving mid/upper level trough axis. Observed temperatures in this area were mainly in the mid-upper 30s near the OK-AR border, with some cooler temps near freezing reported further east. The other area of precipitation was noted on radar along a weak cold front from C OK to NE OK. As temperatures fall tonight, could see some spots of freezing drizzle/ freezing fog develop, mainly across portions of N OK and perhaps in the terrain of NW AR. within a few degrees of freezing. That being said, trends will be monitored closely overnight in case things run a tad cooler than currently advertised.
00z surface analysis places a developing area of low pressure centered over southeastern Louisiana, with a cold front extending southwestward across the Gulf of Mexico. Meanwhile, an area of continental high pressure was centered over the Tidewater region of Virginia. We hypothesize this was in response to a convective burst near the center of the aforementioned low pressure and associated modest cyclonic deepening, as evidenced by GOES-16 infrared satellite imagery in the late afternoon hours. In addition, Small Craft Should Exercise Caution in the Bayside and Gulfside waters north of the Lower and Middle Keys. From synopsis, breezes will shift rapidly around the compass during the next five days, as a series of low pressure systems and associated fronts slide east through the Gulf of Mexico.
1034 PM CST Fri Jan 5 2024 (This afternoon through Saturday night) Dry air filtering in within the northwest flow on the back-side of the departing upper low is yielding a quiet weekend across the region.
/VM/DC/ This Afternoon through Tomorrow: As an upper-level low pressure system pivots over Kansas this afternoon, a broad area of lift ahead of the system has been generating rain from the Gulf Coast into the Mid-South.
935 PM CST Fri Jan 5 2024 (This evening through Saturday) An axis of lighter precipitation is possible tonight as the main trough exits the region.
1130 PM CST Fri Jan 5 2024 -Patchy freezing drizzle and freezing fog possible through this evening.
1048 PM CST Fri Jan 5 2024 Light echoes are now showing up in West Tennessee, and showers are poised to begin spreading into Middle Tennessee during the next few hours, although the low levels will have to moisten up some before the rain starts reaching the ground. Overnight lows look to drop into the low 30s along portions of the Cumberland Plateau, but still slightly too warm for any wintry precipitation. (This afternoon through Saturday Night) Clouds continue to build into Middle TN this afternoon ahead of an approaching trough. The cold front will move through tomorrow morning with showers ending from west to east after 7 am.
(Now through Sunday) An upper level trough will continue to move east this morning with the associated precip moving out as well. High temps today will range from the low 50s across the northwest to low 60s in far southeast portions of the area.
This trough passes too far north of the area to bring any precipitation, instead we receive a gusty northwest wind across the area. A large trough digs across the western CONUS and gradually becomes a closed low near the Four Corners by late Sunday. Ahead of this feature, strong lee troughing commences across the southern Great Plains and by Sunday afternoon southerly return flow may get as high as 15-25 kts across many locations.
Broad synoptic lift should continue to bring light snow across the region into this morning, before the northern branch trough axis shifts east and snow taper off from west to east.
In this low cape/high shear environment, some isolated strong wind gusts and brief tornadoes are possible. Cooler temperatures are expected overnight tonight with lows around 50 along the Nature Coast with temperatures bottoming out in the lower 60s in SWFL.
As the core of the trough moves across the forecast area late this morning into the afternoon some guidance indicates the potential for additional showers to develop across the southern Rolling Plains.
Temperatures will top out cooler than normal this afternoon and bottom out slightly warmer than normal tonight.
The precipitation is mostly light snow, but every now and again getting reports of -fzra for any sites that temporally lose ice nuclei (boundary layer temperature still warmer than -10C). Broad synoptic lift should continue to bring light snow across the region into this morning, before the northern branch trough axis shifts east and snow taper off from west to east.
(Today and tonight) The southern extent of a relatively weak progressive upper level trough will pass east across our area today. Highs today will be in the low to mid 50s in our northern zones where more cloud cover is expected, and upper 50s to low 60s under partly cloudy skies farther south. Surface winds will ease after sunset once again as zonal upper level flow is established behind the exiting upper trough to the east.
An upper level trough will approach the region by tonight and bring widespread light snowfall.
Low stratus in place over eastern half of forecast area, and with mid/high cloud spilling over the top of the ridge, could see a few areas this morning with light seeder/feeder flurries. Trough axis should shift well east of the region late Sunday through Sunday night.
Cold advection behind the departing trough will keep temps on the cool side with highs again in the 40s.
Otherwise some mid level echoes currently observed from east central New Mexico may move to near our north Texas area late this morning or early afternoon according to some of the high- resolution models.
Temperatures are hovering in the lower to mid 70s, with dewpoints creeping up to near 70, and southeast to south winds of 15 to 20 mph. Surface analysis depicts low pressure over southern Mississippi, with a cold front extending southward through the central Gulf of Mexico. Aloft, a very progressive and energetic pattern continues, with a deep longwave trough over the central CONUS. 7 inches ahead of and along the advancing cold front. This moisture is supporting a squall line along a pre-frontal trough in the eastern Gulf.
For Sun, our next upper trough will start digging over the Desert Southwest and will result in strong return flow commencing across the Plains with gusts to 30 mph common by Sun afternoon. Potent upper low will track across NM Sun night and into the TX Panhandle by Mon afternoon. The big question will be how much of this falls as snow, and just like our storm on Fri, this will be determined by temps in the lowest 1,000ft or so. Unlike the winter storm we just dealt with, the one on Mon will develop a very pronounced TROWAL as the upper low starts to track east Mon afternoon into Mon evening. Locations that can tap into both the warm advection snow during the day Mon and TROWAL snowfall will see the highest snow totals.
412 AM EST Sat Jan 6 2024 Low pressure will move northeast through the mid and upper Ohio Valley today.
Overnight and predawn temperatures remained nearly steady, ranging from near freezing over N-Cntrl AR to the upper 30s over portions of S AR. The Wrn CONUS system will move into the Rockies as a quickly deepening upper trough and closed low.