Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
There is not a cloud in the sky across the forecast area this afternoon as we remain under the axis of an unseasonably strong upper level ridge. Falling surface pressure to the north and northwest while modest high pressure remain in place over the plains will increase the surface pressure gradient across the area tonight. The resultant low level jet should keep a southerly breeze over the elevated areas along the High Plains tonight. Thursday morning, the trailing pressure trough to the south of the surface cyclone well to our north will pull east of the mountains, bringing an end to the southerly winds but increasing the westerly winds. Look for temperatures to surge into the low to mid 90s for most of the Nebraska panhandle and low spots of Wyoming.
224 PM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 - Warmer than normal temperatures through the end of September. - Much cooler, but near normal, into early October. Tonight, high pressure will provide clear skies and calm conditions across much of the region.
-Tropical Cyclone Helene will lift north into the eastern Gulf of Mexico today through Thursday and produce heavy rain, strong winds and possible tornadoes. Low level shear/helicity will begin to increase and present a tropical cyclone tornado threat within rainbands this evening into tonight.
(Tonight) A quiet night is on tap for eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas Tonight as weak high pressure prevails. (Thursday through Wednesday) The upper level low currently centered near Murphysboro, IL will drift to the south over the next day or so before joining forces with Helene late week and taking off to the northeast over the weekend.
1207 PM EDT Wed Sep 25 2024 High pressure will remain over the Maritimes today. Low pressure will approach tonight and Thursday and cross the area Thursday night.
As upper level ridging meanders a little closer to the area tomorrow, highs respond by inching up a degree or two over today though still remaining about normal for late September.
The higher probabilities for thunderstorms stretch from Lookout Pass to the Flathead Valley to Glacier NP from 6-10pm MDT. Otherwise, general gusty winds of 20-35 mph and scattered showers will be common with and behind a cold front this evening, especially from I-90 northward.
1106 AM EDT Wed Sep 25 2024 High pressure will remain over the Maritimes today. Low pressure will approach tonight and Thursday and cross the area Thursday night.
Low pressure lingers around the Ohio Valley through the weekend with continued rain chances. Overnight, the upper level low moving through the northern Great Lakes will continue east, but the upper level low in the lower Ohio Valley becomes cut off from the main jet stream flow.
1205 PM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 (Today and tonight) A cold front has cleared the area early this morning which will lead to cooler temperatures this afternoon. At the same time, an upper level ridge will slowly migrate eastward across the Rockies.
The string of mainly clear and warm days with cool nights will continue with this high pressure ridge in control. There may be just enough moisture and cooling aloft with a wave passing well to our north to pop a few afternoon cumulus on the mountain ridges but there will virtually be no chance of precipitation through Thursday night.
* We're certainly into the warm side of early Fall through the end of the month with high temperatures running a solid 10-15 degrees above normal due to a strong ridge over the west. For anyone recreating in the backcountry, be prepared for winds gusting around 60 mph along exposed ridgelines.
217 PM MDT Wed Sep 25 2024 KEY MESSAGES: - A cold front will push through early Thursday that will make for a windy day with some cooler air moving in.
332 PM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 (Today through Thursday Night) Still watching a cold front to our north which hasn't moved very much over the last day or so. Eventually, the broader scale upper trough will amplify further and it should bring the boundary through the region. Dry and a very slightly cooler air will begin to filter into the region by Thursday. Until the front slides through today temperatures will continue to remain on the warmer/humid side.
Otherwise, in the wake of a frontal/upper low passage, cool and dry surface weather is forecast.
(Tonight through Thursday night) A few showers and thunderstorms will develop along a southward advancing cold front through early evening. North to northeasterly winds will bring in drier air overnight, but the relatively cooler air is nowhere to be found. Sadly, this front won't bring significant relief in terms of afternoon temperatures, however, it will bring much-needed cooler and more comfortable mornings for the region both tonight and Thursday night.
- Rain chances return to start the week as a cold front moves through the region bringing cooler temperatures as well. High pressure was in control across the Nation's midsection resulting in mainly clear skies and temperatures warming into the 70s across the Northland. High pressure will remain in control through the week and into the weekend.
A cold front has passed through the region throughout the past day and has brought our highs into the upper 70s and low 80s.
High pressure over Arizona will keep unseasonably warm temperatures and dry conditions will continue through the weekend. Moisture does increase some through the day, but with high pressure still largely in control, the only noticeable change will be some increase cloud cover over the higher terrain this afternoon. High pressure remains the main weather story for the rest of the week. The high is centered over the Four Corners region early this morning.
(Rest of today through Thursday) The cold front that moved through the area yesterday with numerous showers and strong thunderstorms was stalling out along the Cumberland Plateau today. Some scattered showers will build back west across I-65 through the afternoon and evening as a cutoff upper level low sets up just to our west.
At the mid/upper levels, ridging holds strong over the Rockies and High Plains. The upper ridge is progged to flatten and retrograde westward in the next couple of days as the hurricane makes landfall and eventually interacts with the upper low to our east.
Warm, dry, and quiet conditions are expected to prevail through the remainder of the week as high pressure builds in over the region. Ridging looks to persist across the region well into the weekend keeping any disturbances well to the north of the area. High pressure will keep skies clear and conditions VFR through the TAF period. A weak trough will slide through the region Thursday, but it will be a very dry system, with almost no moisture or cloud cover as it passes by. Wind will be breezy this afternoon, as well as Thursday afternoon as the trough approaches/moves through.
Dewpoints are forecast to drop into the low to mid 60s to sunrise Thursday. Temperatures were lowered from the NBM numbers in low lying areas and river valleys, with most locations bottoming out in the low to mid 50s. Highs on Thursday will be near to slightly below seasonal normals, in the low to mid 80s.
A cold front, currently extending along the coastal counties will continue to move southeastward this afternoon. Skies should gradually clear from northwest to southeast tonight, resulting in a cooler night with lows generally in the 60s and low 70s.
Dewpoints are forecast to drop into the low to mid 60s to sunrise Thursday. Temperatures were lowered from the NBM numbers in low lying areas and river valleys, with most locations bottoming out in the low to mid 50s. Highs on Thursday will be near to slightly below seasonal normals, in the low to mid 80s. With low pressure both at the surface and aloft to our east, winds will generally stay from the northwest to northeast for the rest of this week.
Meanwhile, ripples of vorticity, associated with deepening upper level low, will continue to provide necessary forcing to maintain showers and thunderstorms going tonight into Thursday. Abundant moisture and cloudiness will keep lows in the mid 60s across the lowlands, ranging into the upper 50s northeast mountains. The cloudiness and cooling showers will keep Thursday high temperatures in the lower 80s lowlands, ranging into the mid 60s northeast mountains.
1144 AM MDT Wed Sep 25 2024 - Warmer temperatures and continued dry conditions are expected for our Wednesday.
Pacific cold front should weaken as it moves across our CWA tonight.
Strong upper level ridge is in place and bringing us hot/dry conditions today. Satellite imagery shows a weak trof along the PacNW coast. Tonight will be mild as downslope gradients increase ahead of the approaching trof. Next, there is some elevated instability w/ the trof passage tomorrow. Tomorrow's fropa is problematic, however, due to an expected poor humidity recovery tonight, gusty/shifting winds with the cold front, and still warm & dry conditions.
The upper level trough responsible for swinging our cold front south and east this week will deepen over the middle Mississippi Valley as the week nears its end, to the point of forming a closed low over eastern Arkansas and western Tennessee by Thursday. With the cold front finally pushing completely out of the region, its effects will be noticeable first in the form of cooler than recent low temperatures to start the day tomorrow, ranging from the upper 50s north to middle 60s south, followed by highs climbing only into the low to mid 80s and remaining there for the foreseeable future.
/NEW/ /Through Thursday/ This morning's showers and thunderstorms have diminished, and the cold front responsible for this activity has just crossed our southern border. Nice fall weather is expected this afternoon with high temperatures mostly in the low to mid 80s and a prevailing northeast wind around 10-15 mph. Clear skies, light winds, and dry post-frontal air will result in a cooler night across the region with overnight lows falling into the mid 50s to mid 60s. Thursday will be another pleasant day with afternoon highs in the low to mid 80s under sunny skies.
152 PM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 (Today through Thursday Night) A secondary cold front will move through SE Texas later this afternoon, and will move offshore early Thursday morning. Dew points behind the front are forecast to drop into the 50s to low 60s with lows tonight in the 60s inland and in the low 70s around the metro and along the coast. NW winds will continue to pull in cooler air Thursday into Thursday night with highs on Thursday reaching into the low to mid 80s area wide. Lows for Thursday will be a few degrees cooler than tonight's lows with most of the area in the 60s.
A pronounced upper level ridge will shift eastward from the Rockies to the High Plains (today-tonight), stalling over the region Thu-Thu night. Fri-Sun: Long range guidance continues to indicate that a broad upper ridge will prevail over the majority of the lower 48 in this period -- albeit with a cut-off low trapped therein, meandering invof the Central/Southern MS River Valley where it will inevitably (and somewhat uniquely) interact with Tropical Cyclone Helene. As long as the cut-off low remains well downstream of the Tri-State area (as guidance presently indicates).
(This evening through Thursday) High temperatures will be slightly cooler today in the wake of a cold front, topping out near seasonal averages in the low-to-mid 80s. Broad high pressure to the northeast will allow for clear skies and light northeasterly winds to persist into this evening. Light winds will turn clockwise and become westerly by Thursday morning as the high moves further away from our area. However, sunny skies will continue tomorrow and slightly higher upper level heights will allow for high temperatures to be a few degrees warmer than today.
High pressure continues to slide into the region tonight and holds across the region through Thursday (and likely well beyond). Pattern Forecast: At the start of the period Thursday night, upper- level ridging is expected to be parked across the north-central tier of the CONUS atop upper-level closed low pressure over the lower MS Valley.
241 PM EDT Wed Sep 25 2024 Scattered rain showers are expected today, with rain chances increasing tonight as a cold front approaches the area.
902 PM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 A few showers continue along the plateau where the cold front stalled out. To our northwest, the upper low is spinning in place near PAH with a few showers north of our area. (Today through Tonight) A cold front has pushed eastward through Middle TN with latest obs showing it just east of the Plateau. In the wake of this front, temperatures will be cooler with forecast highs in the 70s to near 80. In the wake of the cold front and with cloudy skies, instability will be less with CAPE values forecast to be less than 1000 J/kg.
457 PM PDT Wed Sep 25 2024 Strong winds accompany a cold front passage through the late evening.
652 PM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 A cold front has passed through the region throughout the past day and has brought our highs into the upper 70s and low 80s.
- Warmer than normal temperatures through the end of September. - Much cooler, but near normal, into early October. Tonight, high pressure will provide clear skies and calm conditions across much of the region.
Cooler temperatures are in store for the forecast region tonight with lows bottoming out in the low 60s F. Consequently, we're not looking for any showers tonight as the weak cold front that moved through early this morning through the afternoon has pushed through the area, bringing cooler, drier weather with a northerly fetch. That cold front is expected to become stationary through the Mississippi coast tonight and linger through that area for the foreseeable future, keeping most exciting weather chances at bay for the time being.
High pressure over Arizona will continue the unseasonably warm temperatures and dry conditions through the weekend. Moisture does increase some through the day, but with high pressure still largely in control, the only noticeable change will be some increase cloud cover over the higher terrain this afternoon.
CJC A cold front has passed through the region throughout the past day and has brought our highs into the upper 70s and low 80s.
A mostly dry cold front (with the exception of scattered light rain showers from Baker City to McCall) has entered SW Idaho this evening and will continue to progress eastward overnight. A dry westerly flow aloft follows on Thursday, along with cooler temperatures and generally light winds. Cold front will continue to move across SW ID tonight. Surface wind S 5-15 kt, shifting to NW 03Z-04Z behind a cold front.
Winds have decreased and will remain calm through the night, thus cannot rule out isolated pockets of fog within the cooler spots of region (but should not be a big deal even so). High pressure continues to slide into the region tonight and holds across the region through Thursday (and likely well beyond). Pattern Forecast: At the start of the period Thursday night, upper- level ridging is expected to be parked across the north-central tier of the CONUS atop upper-level closed low pressure over the lower MS Valley.
927 PM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 A shallow, yet cooler airmass continues to build into the Four State Region tonight following the passing of a recent surface cold front. The upper level trough responsible for swinging our cold front south and east this week will deepen over the middle Mississippi Valley as the week nears its end, to the point of forming a closed low over eastern Arkansas and western Tennessee by Thursday. With the cold front finally pushing completely out of the region, its effects will be noticeable first in the form of cooler than recent low temperatures to start the day tomorrow, ranging from the upper 50s north to middle 60s south, followed by highs climbing only into the low to mid 80s and remaining there for the foreseeable future.
231 PM PDT Wed Sep 25 2024 Strong winds accompany a cold front passage through the late evening.
630 PM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 (Today through Tonight) A cold front has pushed eastward through Middle TN with latest obs showing it just east of the Plateau. In the wake of this front, temperatures will be cooler with forecast highs in the 70s to near 80. In the wake of the cold front and with cloudy skies, instability will be less with CAPE values forecast to be less than 1000 J/kg.
604 PM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 (This evening through Thursday) High temperatures will be slightly cooler today in the wake of a cold front, topping out near seasonal averages in the low-to-mid 80s. Broad high pressure to the northeast will allow for clear skies and light northeasterly winds to persist into this evening. Light winds will turn clockwise and become westerly by Thursday morning as the high moves further away from our area. However, sunny skies will continue tomorrow and slightly higher upper level heights will allow for high temperatures to be a few degrees warmer than today.
308 PM PDT Wed Sep 25 2024 A cold front is moving farther inland with light precipitation falling mainly along the coast. Once the front moves through, we'll see more zonal flow aloft as a weak area of high pressure sets in. Temperatures will be normal for the late fall on Thursday with highs in the lower 80's and clear skies.
Low pressure lingers around the Ohio Valley through the weekend with continued rain chances.
631 PM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 (Tonight through Thursday night) A few showers and thunderstorms will develop along a southward advancing cold front through early evening. North to northeasterly winds will bring in drier air overnight, but the relatively cooler air is nowhere to be found. Sadly, this front won't bring significant relief in terms of afternoon temperatures, however, it will bring much-needed cooler and more comfortable mornings for the region both tonight and Thursday night.
619 PM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 (Tonight) A quiet night is on tap for eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas Tonight as weak high pressure prevails. (Thursday through Wednesday) The upper level low currently centered near Murphysboro, IL will drift to the south over the next day or so before joining forces with Helene late week and taking off to the northeast over the weekend.
1219 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 A shallow, yet cooler airmass continues to build into the Four State Region tonight following the passing of a recent surface cold front. The upper level trough responsible for swinging our cold front south and east this week will deepen over the middle Mississippi Valley as the week nears its end, to the point of forming a closed low over eastern Arkansas and western Tennessee by Thursday. With the cold front finally pushing completely out of the region, its effects will be noticeable first in the form of cooler than recent low temperatures to start the day tomorrow, ranging from the upper 50s north to middle 60s south, followed by highs climbing only into the low to mid 80s and remaining there for the foreseeable future.
906 PM PDT Wed Sep 25 2024 Forecast remains on track for temperatures tomorrow to be right around normal for this time of year, or slightly warmer, especially elevated locations farther inland. (This evening through Thursday) Quick check of current temps shows about 15-30 degrees cooler than 24 hours ago, depending on where you are. All thanks to a deep marine layer and robust onshore flow in response to a passing upper level trough in the Pacific Northwest. This pattern evolves rather quickly back to a ridge setup with effects beginning Thursday.
Expansive high pressure is centered over Iowa early this morning. High pressure and early-morning radar trends favor dry weather today but lingering clouds, especially over northwest Ohio and south of US 24 into Indiana are anticipated.
Temperatures return to near normal by Thursday with another cold front passage Friday.
247 AM MDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Satellite imagery shows fast moving trough moving inland along the Pacific NW coast with an associated cloud leaf and showers moving through Idaho into western Montana. Look for an initial wind shift during the morning with southwest winds turning west, then becoming north/northwest in the afternoon with a secondary push of cooler air. High pressure aloft will prevail to our south with weak zonal to anti-cyclonic flow over our region. Highs will remain well above normal in the lower to mid 80s.
(Tonight) A quiet night is on tap for eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas Tonight as weak high pressure prevails.
(Today and tonight) An upper level ridge will hang out to our west today resulting in a rise in thickness values and therefore higher temperatures this afternoon. We will see a return to surface pressure troughing in lee of the Rockies bringing light surface winds around to the southwest.
Dry conditions and warmer than average temperatures prevail for the next several days. Little change in the overall pattern occurs as above average temperatures will once again occur today, although highs will be a little cooler than yesterday. A dry southwest flow aloft continues over Central California, based on latest satellite imagery with the strong ridge of high pressure over the Desert Southwest and Central U. Probabilistic data suggest the best chances for the warmest locations will be highs in the lower 90's in the Central Valley and the mid-90's for the Kern County desert.
(Today through Friday) A cold front that was responsible for the development of a few scattered showers and even an isolated strong/severe storm or two continues to push south and east into the Gulf of Mexico this morning. Oh, and cooler temperatures with heights/thicknesses aloft dropping in response to the ULL trying to make it's way a bit closer to the CWFA.
Strong high pressure over the region will keep a lid on the active weather through the forecast period. This is due to a high pressure ridge over the southwestern United States. High temperatures are forecast to be in the 80s today with slightly warmer temperatures on Friday with some of the warmer locales like Winnemucca pushing the 90 degree mark. Overnight lows will be in the 40s for the most part, though some of the warmer places could see the low 50s.
Dry weather returns tomorrow into the weekend as high pressure moves overhead. Blocking upper low across the Ozarks has connected a conveyor belt of moisture advection from the tropics into the Northeast. As the low tries to spin up this afternoon and evening, there may be a rather sharp back edge of the rain. Cold front will be exiting the coast this evening. Friday will be warmer and breezy, especially for the coast and interior where mid 70s will be possible.
Isolated showers will remain possible near a weak trough axis across northern IN and srn MI this afternoon given sufficient boundary layer moisture and diurnal heating. This trough washes out tonight into tomorrow with drier easterly winds developing on the southern fringe of a low level anticyclone building northeast into the Great Lakes. Main focus into Friday and the weekend will turn to Hurricane Helene remnants being absorbed into a leftover upper low over the western TN Valley.
A pronounced upper level ridge will shift eastward from the Rockies to the High Plains (today-tonight), stalling over the region Thu-Thu night.
311 AM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Rain showers with a few embedded thunderstorms will continue today as a cold front moves across the region. Rain chances will once again increase by midweek as the next cold front approaches the area. Another unsettled period once again expected today as an elongated area of low pressure and associated front continue to impact the region. Mainly dry and warm conditions expected through the short term as high pressure takes hold of the area.