Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Temperatures quickly jumping into the 90s, thanks to the gross overnight lows in the lower 80s, will result in peak heat index up to around 108 in the southern counties, and up to 107 for the rest of east central Florida. Speaking of lows in the lower 80s, all of our primary climate sites except Melbourne, so Daytona Beach, Leesburg, Sanford, Orlando, Vero Beach, and Fort Pierce, all have potential record warm minimum temperatures for the day, and some are close to monthly or even all time records.
1237 PM CDT Wed Aug 7 2024 (Today through Thursday afternoon) Upper level ridge broadens over the area for today and Thursday. Tonight cools down near normal with highs in the low to mid 70s for most with highs near 80F along the Rio Grande and in the eastern most counties of the CWA. The ridge axis centers itself near the region on Thursday and vaults afternoon highs an extra 2-4 degrees areawide. Rain chances fall to near zero due to stronger subsidence from the nearby ridge.
1149 AM MDT Wed Aug 7 2024 - Cold front passage today with scattered showers and thunderstorms, a few storms possibly strong this afternoon across mainly far southern South Dakota. Current surface analysis shows low pressure over southern MB, with cold front stretching across western ND into southern MT. Upper level analysis shows low pressure over northern MB, with trough covering south central Canada. Near zonal flow in place further south across the northern Rockies and northern Plains, with high pressure still over mostly the Four Corners region. Cold front will gradually move southeast through the area today, with breezy north to northwest winds developing.
(This evening through Thursday) Expect very hot temperatures again on Thursday as a strong upper level ridge remains over the area. Highs on Thursday will be 105 to 109 across the northern 2/3 of the area and a little cooler, 100 to 104 along the I-10 corridor.
202 PM MDT Wed Aug 7 2024 Much cooler air mass has moved over the region so conditions will not be nearly as unstable as late yesterday. We have had areas of low clouds associated with the cooler air and upslope which as prevented widespread deeper convection despite the disturbances aloft. By evening into the overnight hours our models shift most of any lingering precipitation to the foothills as cooler more stable air settles over the plains.
(Remainder of today and tonight) Early afternoon surface observations suggest the presence of a frontal convergence axis across the local forecast area, which is oriented in a SSW-to-NNE fashion and likely extends further northeastward to a decaying area of low pressure across the Upper OH Valley and adjacent portions of the central Appalachians. Probabilities for measurable rainfall will be highest in the southeastern portion of the CWFA given the orientation of the trough and NNW flow of 15-25 knots aloft in the circulation around TS Debby. Although northerly gradient flow in the low levels will remain a bit higher tonight (compared to previous nights) as TS Debby shifts northward across coastal SC, the local boundary layer will remain rather moist and supportive of patchy fog and perhaps some low stratus clouds as temps fall into the l-m 70s.
236 PM CDT Wed Aug 7 2024 Hot and dry pattern should continue for the remainder of the week under the influence of upper ridging, reinforced by Tropical Storm Debby to the east.
1235 PM CDT Wed Aug 7 2024 - Widespread showers expected this afternoon into tonight ahead of a cold front.
129 PM CDT Wed Aug 7 2024 (Today through Thursday) The subtropical ridge remains relatively weak over much of the Texas coastal counties, but the E-W oriented axis extending into NE TX is building south over Central TX today. This, along with an eastward nudge of the low to mid level thermal ridge from west TX will boost many of our high temperatures into Heat Advisory level temperature values of 103 to 104 and heat indices into the 108-110 degree range. This looks mainly to impact the lower threshold areas depicted for "Coastal Office" with similar values expected to fall just short of reaching the higher threshold areas depicted for "Rio Grande Valley". Slightly hotter weather is depicted for the Rio Grande areas Thursday, as is noted by the thermal ridge forecast and MOS guidances.
245 PM CDT Wed Aug 7 2024 - Cold front brings scattered showers and non-severe storms late tonight into tomorrow morning. This system is beginning to push a cold front southeast across the region which will quickly move through the forecast area late tonight and early tomorrow morning. Behind the front, a strong area of high pressure will help to advect much cooler and drier air southward, as a large upper low evolves over the eastern CONUS.
No changes to current forecast of dry and slightly cooler weather today and tonight followed by a slight chance of thunderstorms Thursday afternoon and night from Harney County east-northeastward into central Idaho.
A slight cooling trend is expected today and Thursday as increasing onshore flow brings cooler air to coast and valleys.
The boundary will wash out, allowing warm and humid conditions to spread back northward overnight with overnight lows expected to be several degrees warmer than last night across northeast Oklahoma. Additionally a cold front will move into the Southern Plains late tomorrow afternoon holding temperatures back a few degrees across far northeast Oklahoma by mid to late afternoon. Scattered thunderstorm development will be possible along the front, mainly across western and central Oklahoma, but a few storms could move into eastern Oklahoma tomorrow evening, with additional thunderstorm chances expected overnight as a complex of storms moves off the High Plains and through southern Kansas overnight Thursday.
Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas was on the far eastern side of the dome of high pressure over the Southern Plains. high pressure is expected to become more centered over the Desert Southwest while the surface boundary sags southward and exits the CWA. The shift westward of high pressure center will aid afternoon temps to be slightly cooler behind the boundary with mid to upper 90s.
401 PM EDT Wed Aug 7 2024 Slightly cooler air has moved into the area, with high pressure centered over southeastern Canada, and Tropical Storm Debby near the southeast coast.
241 PM MDT Wed Aug 7 2024 Much cooler air mass has moved over the region so conditions will not be nearly as unstable as late yesterday. We have had areas of low clouds associated with the cooler air and upslope which as prevented widespread deeper convection despite the disturbances aloft. By evening into the overnight hours our models shift most of any lingering precipitation to the foothills as cooler more stable air settles over the plains.
149 PM EDT Wed Aug 7 2024 Slightly cooler air has moved into the area, with high pressure centered over southeastern Canada, and Tropical Storm Debby near the southeast coast.
Slight cooler temperatures are expected Thursday as increasing onshore flow brings cooler air to coast and valleys.
Scattered thunderstorms will occur this afternoon and evening, following a southeasterly track along the Continental Divide, extending west enough to impact the Highway 93 corridor from Eureka south through the Missoula and Bitterroot valleys.
131 PM EDT Wed Aug 7 2024 - Cooler and less humid Wednesday - Much cooler and low humidity this weekend A few updates have been made regarding the ongoing stratus deck over the Ohio Valley. A modest push of cooler and slightly drier air has moved into central Indiana behind departing midlevel perturbation and associated surface wave. Much of the high resolution and statistical model guidance is cooler than a blended mean, and so it appears mid-50s for minimum temperatures are achievable in rural portions generally north of I-70.
254 PM CDT Wed Aug 7 2024 - Much cooler temps on the way and will persist through the weekend. Water vapor imagery currently shows upper ridging from the Desert Southwest into the Southern High Plains, with an upper impulse moving into the Northern Rockies with an upper low centered over south central Manitoba. At the surface, cold front extends from northern MN into Western Nebraska. By early Thu afternoon, cold front will be making its way across southern KS with some iso-sct convection remaining possible mainly across the northeast portion of our forecast area. The main story Thursday will be much cooler temps starting to overspread the area with highs in the 70s across much of central KS.
Persistent northeasterly to easterly winds are expected with breezy conditions across the highest peaks of the mountains associated with Tropical Storm Debby. As 850mb flow increases to in excess of 35 kts, the highest peaks of the mountains will likely see pretty breezy conditions.
201 PM MDT Wed Aug 7 2024 - Cold front moves through the region today, isolated to scattered showers/storms possible. - Cooler temperatures for the latter half of the week. Most recent surface analysis shows cold frontal boundary mostly through the forecast area this afternoon. Current upper air analysis shows quasi- zonal flow over the region, with upper high still over the four corners region and an upper low over southern Manitoba.
Clouds are blocking the satellite view of fire temperature and smoke, but the continuation of west to north surface winds overnight will push smoke south and east. The lowest visibility will be along the N-E quadrants.
649 PM CDT Wed Aug 7 2024 - Cooler than average temperatures continue through the remainder of the week and into the weekend. The main areas of showers are exiting our east as the cold front continues to usher in drier/more stable air into our region. There are still some lingering very light showers/sprinkles near the base of the cyclonic flow at the base of the mid/upper low to our north to our west, but this is more likely to follow a diurnal trend with mid level lapse rates under 6 and the amount of drier air already advecting in behind the stronger cold front.
626 PM CDT Wed Aug 7 2024 (This evening through Thursday) Upper level ridging and the associated dome of high pressure extending from southern CA to north TX will remain overhead through the short term period. Thankfully, a cooling trend is on the horizon thanks to an upper level low tracking across the upper Midwest which will sling a surface front across the region beginning Thursday afternoon.
702 PM CDT Wed Aug 7 2024 Hot and dry pattern should continue for the remainder of the week under the influence of upper ridging, reinforced by Tropical Storm Debby to the east.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms developed again today across northern Arizona mainly over the higher terrain from Flagstaff southeast to the White Mountains and over central Apache/northern Navajo counties.
902 PM CDT Wed Aug 7 2024 Surface analysis this evening places a cold front from east Tennessee back through central Mississippi and southern Arkansas. Slightly cooler and drier air will continue to impact the Mid- South through the end of the week, ending the need for heat products.
633 PM CDT Wed Aug 7 2024 - Much cooler temps on the way and will persist through the weekend. Water vapor imagery currently shows upper ridging from the Desert Southwest into the Southern High Plains, with an upper impulse moving into the Northern Rockies with an upper low centered over south central Manitoba. At the surface, cold front extends from northern MN into Western Nebraska. By early Thu afternoon, cold front will be making its way across southern KS with some iso-sct convection remaining possible mainly across the northeast portion of our forecast area. The main story Thursday will be much cooler temps starting to overspread the area with highs in the 70s across much of central KS.
Boundaries have been the main triggering mechanism for showers, especially along the Lower and Middle Keys where a long-lived reverse cloud line maintained itself for a majority of the evening. High pressure over the western North Atlantic and slow-moving Debby over the Southeastern United States will maintain gentle broadly southwest to west breezes across the Keys coastal waters through Thursday.
520 PM MDT Wed Aug 7 2024 - Cold front moves through the region today, isolated to scattered showers/storms possible. - Cooler temperatures for the latter half of the week. Most recent surface analysis shows cold frontal boundary mostly through the forecast area this afternoon. Current upper air analysis shows quasi- zonal flow over the region, with upper high still over the four corners region and an upper low over southern Manitoba.
Dewpoint values across portions of northern McCurtain county have fallen into the lower 70s compared to the upper 70s south of the front. This drier air could allow for slightly cooler overnight lows in the lower 70s across the Ouachitas and possibly portions of south Arkansas.
652 PM CDT Wed Aug 7 2024 Slightly cooler and drier air will continue to impact the Mid- South through the end of the week, ending the need for heat products.
853 PM CDT Wed Aug 7 2024 Updated at 832 PM CDT Wed Aug 7 2024 - One more day (Thursday) of high heat indices (100-110 degrees) before cooler weather arrives for the weekend. Cooler temperatures will lag somewhat behind the wind shift.
1022 PM EDT Wed Aug 7 2024 Slightly cooler air has moved into the area, with high pressure centered over southeastern Canada, and Tropical Storm Debby near the southeast coast.
609 PM CDT Wed Aug 7 2024 (This evening through Thursday) Expect very hot temperatures again on Thursday as a strong upper level ridge remains over the area. Highs on Thursday will be 105 to 109 across the northern 2/3 of the area and a little cooler, 100 to 104 along the I-10 corridor.
625 PM CDT Wed Aug 7 2024 - Cold front brings scattered showers and non-severe storms late tonight into tomorrow morning. This system is beginning to push a cold front southeast across the region which will quickly move through the forecast area late tonight and early tomorrow morning. Behind the front, a strong area of high pressure will help to advect much cooler and drier air southward, as a large upper low evolves over the eastern CONUS.
- Cooler temperatures and isolated showers expected Thursday behind a cold front, especially east of the Divide. A pattern change is on the way today as a cold front drops south into central Wyoming. This is in response to a broad trough pushing in from Canada, flattening the longstanding ridge we've seen over the area. This will help keep high temperatures notably cooler today east of Continental Divide. These areas have yet to benefit from the stalling cold front, which will finally push across late this evening. Thursday will be much cooler behind the front, especially east of the Divide where highs will only reach the 60s and 70s for most locations. Johnson County, in particular, will feel much cooler with highs in the low 60s for most lower elevations (Buffalo's high will be around 20 degrees below normal).
729 PM CDT Wed Aug 7 2024 Updated at 618 PM CDT Wed Aug 7 2024 - One more day (Thursday) of high heat indices (100-110 degrees) before cooler weather arrives for the weekend. Cooler temperatures will lag somewhat behind the wind shift.
756 PM EDT Wed Aug 7 2024 Slightly cooler air has moved into the area, with high pressure centered over southeastern Canada, and Tropical Storm Debby near the southeast coast.
- Showers and storms will continue tonight into Thursday with the cold front passage dropping temperatures well below normal for early August. Cold front lays across central South Dakota. Cold front move through the Cheyenne area between 03Z and 06Z this evening with northeasterly low level winds developing behind the front.
1210 AM CDT Thu Aug 8 2024 - Cold front brings scattered showers and non-severe storms late tonight into tomorrow morning. This system is beginning to push a cold front southeast across the region which will quickly move through the forecast area late tonight and early tomorrow morning. Behind the front, a strong area of high pressure will help to advect much cooler and drier air southward, as a large upper low evolves over the eastern CONUS. There are indications for some MVFR stratus moving in by early afternoon as the main surge of cooler air pushes in.
254 PM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024 A cold front will continue pushing southeast of the area tonight as upper level troughing pivots over the region. High pressure builds in over the area in the wake of the cold front, leading to mostly dry conditions. In the wake of a cold frontal passage this afternoon, winds have shifted from southwesterly to west/northwesterly. As an upper level trough pivots over the area, a disturbance to our north will usher in moisture later this evening. An isolated rain shower cannot be ruled out around 00Z-02Z this evening along the Alleghenies, but dry air should prevent any precipitation from making it east of the Blue Ridge.
Temperatures will continue to be on the cooler side today, except for the Central Coast where there will be better clearing of clouds.
- With elevated wind speeds and gusts with the passing cold front, a Lake Wind Advisory is out through 9 PM Monday.
Even if storms fire, they may remain west of the area as the MCS propagates ESE toward the higher low-level theta-e values.
(The rest of this afternoon ) Regional surface analysis shows weak cold front extending from north of Fort Smith and extending to north of McAlester, and this feature also shows up well in vis satellite.
Looking ahead, surface ridging builds in from the north today and tomorrow keeping skies clear through Monday. Temperatures will remian pleasant topping out in the low to mid 80s with lows dipping into the 50s.
646 PM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024 - High pressure brings dry conditions for the first half of the week. This low level moisture will reside under the post frontal inversion. Southeast Michigan positioned late this afternoon within the broad cyclonic expanse of a closed low lifting into southern Quebec. Weak cold frontal passage underway marking the transition toward deeper layer northerly flow. Cooler northerly flow entrenched throughout Monday as high amplitude troughing takes residence just to the east.
945 PM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024 A surface cold front and upper level disturbance will move through the region tonight.
617 PM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024 - Nice weather continues for Monday with highs in the lower 80s, light winds, and ample sunshine.
A cold front, rather weak in strength, is currently traversing our forecast area this afternoon. Outside of the higher elevations, winds are forecasted to slack off tonight becoming light or calm for many locations. Temperatures this afternoon will be a few degrees below normal with upper 70s to around 80 degrees expected for the lowlands, while the mountains will stay in the 60s to the middle 70s. Lows tonight will drop back in the 50s with a few locations in the higher terrain seeing temperatures in the upper 40s. Drier weather and some clearing moves in Monday morning behind a reinforcing, dry cold front. The lowlands will range anywhere from the upper 60s to the mid 70s, while the mountains will observe anywhere from the upper 50s to the lower 70s.
/19/ (This evening through Monday Night) Shower and thunderstorm chances will begin to increase tonight, as upper-level ridging begins to break down ahead of the trough and cold front.
710 PM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024 (This evening through Monday Night) Shower and thunderstorm chances will begin to increase tonight, as upper-level ridging begins to break down ahead of the trough and cold front.
(Tonight) Weak cold front has just about moved southward thru all of north AL this Sun evening. While most of the lingering showers/tstms have moved just south of the area, some additional light/moderate showers out of west/mid TN associated with an upper trough axis dropping southward thru the region is beginning to cross into NW AL. With the passage of the front, slightly cooler/drier air will filter into the area from the north, thereby allowing lows into early Mon to fall into the lower/mid 60s.
Mid-level moisture and instability associated with an upper level trough has brought isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms east of the Cascades again today.
738 PM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024 A cold front will move through tonight brining only scattered showers and storms as well as ending the heat heading into Monday. Highs Monday will be in the low to mid 80s. Some guidance paints the high QPF along the immediate coast whereas others keep it over the water.
1006 PM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024 A cold front will move through tonight brining only scattered showers and storms as well as ending the heat heading into Monday. Highs Monday will be in the low to mid 80s. Some guidance paints the high QPF along the immediate coast whereas others keep it over the water.
515 PM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024 A cold front may bring a few showers today.
710 PM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024 A surface cold front and upper level disturbance will move through the region tonight.
Otherwise, the current forecast remains on track with post-frontal lows falling into the 50s (north) and 60s (south) as cooler and drier air advects into the region. (Through Tonight) Regional surface analysis shows weak cold front extending from north of Fort Smith and extending to north of McAlester, and this feature also shows up well in vis satellite.
No surprise with the ridge axis remaining overhead.
Heat-wise, things are a little "cooler" for Monday as the highs are expected to be 90-100F and the minimum relative humidity will be 40- 65%, which produces heat index values of 100-110F.
645 PM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024 - The entrance of a high pressure combined with clear skies will cause temperatures to drop quickly overnight.
618 PM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024 (This evening through Monday) Isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue to develop this afternoon across southern Oklahoma and north Texas-- near and south of the cold front.
650 PM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024 Showers and thunderstorms are expected across the entire region tonight as a cold front moves through the Mid-South. A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible south of the cold front.
Much drier/stable conditions are expected on Monday, along with cooler temperatures. Surface winds outside of storms: NW 15-35 kt as a cold front passes through, dropping to NW 5-15 kt overnight. Surface winds outside of storms: NW 15-35 kt with a cold front passage, dropping to NW 5-10 kt overnight.
925 PM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024 A cold front will continue pushing southeast of the area tonight as upper level troughing pivots over the region. High pressure builds in over the area in the wake of the cold front, leading to mostly dry conditions. Drier air (dew points in the mid to upper 40s) has been filtering into the area in the wake of a cold front. A spoke of vorticity within the upper trough is resulting in a broken line of showers across southwestern Pennsylvania.
621 PM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024 (Through Tonight) Regional surface analysis shows weak cold front extending from north of Fort Smith and extending to north of McAlester, and this feature also shows up well in vis satellite.
136 AM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024 Cold front today with scattered showers. Light flow, clearing skies, and dew point values in the low 50s overnight should yield at least some patchy valley fog across the region heading into daybreak Tuesday. Cooler weather will be in place for Tuesday, with high temperatures only topping out in the lower to mid 70s for much of the region outside of the mountains.
337 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024 - Nice weather continues with highs in the lower 80s, light winds, and ample sunshine.
1209 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024 (Through Tonight) Regional surface analysis shows weak cold front extending from north of Fort Smith and extending to north of McAlester, and this feature also shows up well in vis satellite.
325 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024 - Dry and quiet today with high pressure in control.