Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
708 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024 (This afternoon through Sunday) Varying degrees of southerly flow continues to pull warm air over the region with deep ridging centered over the East Coast. However, it is supporting an enhanced pressure gradient in combination with a deepening trough over the Central Plains. Pockets of moisture throughout the tropospheric column will contribute to some low-level cu and high- level cirrus, but the more favorable conditions for rain will remain well to our west further away from the grasp of the ridge. Mild conditions tonight with lows in the lower to mid 60s followed by another nice warm-up into the lower to mid 80s by tomorrow afternoon.
Mid-level trough has been moving through the Four Corners region throughout the day. Associated sfc warm front has been slowly pushing north across the forecast area, and is near the KS/NE border as of 20Z. Our initial round of storms early this afternoon developed along the warm front, and a wake low developed in southwest portions of the area helping to push the boundary north. While parameters don't look nearly as high as they did for today, instability and shear would again be supportive for severe weather for any storms that develop in eastern KS ahead of the cold front.
While not as gusty, the tightened surface pressure gradient against the low in the Central Plains will keep winds elevated overnight. With that mixing, combined with the ridging aloft, temperatures should remain mild overnight dropping only into the mid 60s.
A sprawling anticyclone centered to the east of the Delmarva stretches southwest to the Yucatan and Mexico. East winds at the Reef are solidly near 25 knots, with occasional gusts in the low 30s.
354 AM EDT Sun Apr 28 2024 High pressure will remain anchored offshore through mid week. A cold front may then impact the area late in the week. Mid/upper level ridging will be anchored over the Carolinas today, while at the surface, high pressure will be anchored offshore. Despite the development of the afternoon seabreeze, showers are not expected today thanks to large scale subsidence beneath the ridge. This is about 5 degrees, or so, warmer than normal for late April.
152 AM EDT Sun Apr 28 2024 (06Z TAFS) Ridging along the E Seaboard continues to support a tightened gradient across local terminals with elevated easterly flow and mainly dry conditions.
A large high pressure ridge through the lower and mid levels will continue to be located east of the area today and tonight, just of the NC/SC coastline. With the southerly low level flow and scattered to no cloud cover, highs today will be warm, in the lower 80s in most Valley locations.
324 AM EDT Sun Apr 28 2024 High pressure southeast of the area leads to summer like weather Sunday and Monday, with hot afternoons.
(Today through Monday night) A weak cold front has been cruising south through the area tonight, bringing in a marginally cooler air mass with northwest winds. Subtle ridging aloft takes over Monday, allowing for the start of a much warmer week.
Low pressure spinning over the Gulf of Alaska is pushing Pacific moisture into the northwestern U. A cold front associated with this system will bring some increasing westerly or southwesterly winds this afternoon ahead of the frontal passage. By Monday, the low will arrive in the Pacific Northwest.
Temperatures will be mostly in the low to mid 80s on Sunday and Monday, though west coast areas could see temperatures rise into the upper 80s especially on Monday.
1010 PM MST Sat Apr 27 2024 Updated Aviation A departing weather system will result in residual breeziness and some showers across the higher terrain areas of northern and eastern AZ today. The upper low circulation which brought yesterday's windy conditions and evening thunderstorms in now pushing into Colorado early this afternoon. Back here in the southern deserts, the low is still close enough to create some breezy conditions today. The height field will rise Sunday into Monday as troffing is replaced by quasi-zonal flow. This will result in warming temperatures, with highs going from low to mid 80s today, back to near normal Sunday, and then back into the low to mid 90s Monday. Lower desert highs are forecast to continue to reach the low to mid 90s each day, with overnight/morning lows in the 60s.
Temperatures on Monday will be slightly cooler thanks to increased cloud cover with highs in the mid to upper 70s.
335 AM EDT Sun Apr 28 2024 High pressure will slowly exit to the east today. A cold front approaches today and crosses the region tonight. High pressure builds in on Monday.
Ridging aloft and at the surface remain over the state this morning leading to another primarily dry and occasionally breezy day across the area. A slight uptick in shower chances is likely on Tue-Wed afternoons as moisture briefly increases over the area, before high pressure again builds over the E U. (06Z TAFS) Ridging along the E Seaboard continues to support a tightened gradient across local terminals with elevated easterly flow and mainly dry conditions. High pressure with a tight pressure gradient remains over the waters today with advisory conditions diminishing to cautionary levels this morning. High pressure remains the primary influence over the area through the week with minimum RH values in the 30s-40s to approaching critical thresholds for a few hours in the afternoons.
While not as gusty, the tightened surface pressure gradient against the low in the Central Plains will keep winds elevated overnight. With that mixing, combined with the ridging aloft, temperatures should remain mild overnight dropping only into the mid 60s. (Sunday through Monday Night) The East Coast high pressure system will continue to exert influence over the region on Sunday, while the western trough makes gradual advance eastward into the Plains. Late Sunday into Monday, the partially closed Great Plains trough will move northeastward and begin to phase with a trough advancing into the Pac NW and SW Canada.
Mid-level trough has been moving through the Four Corners region throughout the day. Associated sfc warm front has been slowly pushing north across the forecast area, and is near the KS/NE border as of 20Z. Our initial round of storms early this afternoon developed along the warm front, and a wake low developed in southwest portions of the area helping to push the boundary north. While parameters don't look nearly as high as they did for today, instability and shear would again be supportive for severe weather for any storms that develop in eastern KS ahead of the cold front. Broad upper troughing is progged to develop across much of the northwestern CONUS and deepen over the western US by mid-week.
Temperatures across the island chain are on the warmer side due to our elevated winds with values either at or slightly above 75 degrees and dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s. Come Monday, the deep layer ridging will shift into the western North Atlantic. From synopsis, a sprawling high pressure system centered southeast of New England will maintain fresh to strong easterly breezes today through Sunday night. As the high presses south into the western North Atlantic, breezes will slacken, although occasionally fresh breezes will continue through the first half of the week.
Temperatures will remain in the low to mid 60s. 14 Previous short-term discussion: (This afternoon through Sunday) Varying degrees of southerly flow continues to pull warm air over the region with deep ridging centered over the East Coast. However, it is supporting an enhanced pressure gradient in combination with a deepening trough over the Central Plains. Pockets of moisture throughout the tropospheric column will contribute to some low-level cu and high- level cirrus, but the more favorable conditions for rain will remain well to our west further away from the grasp of the ridge. Mild conditions tonight with lows in the lower to mid 60s followed by another nice warm-up into the lower to mid 80s by tomorrow afternoon.
This afternoon, the low is expected to lift further to the northeast, bringing some chances for shower and thunderstorm activity to the region.
High pressure brings quiet weather and slowly warming temperatures this week. Breezy onshore winds will keep temperatures along the coast cooler however. (Today and tonight) High pressure will remain offshore as a weak cold front slowly dissipates across the Bay Area today.
(Today) An upper ridge pattern continues to gradually move eastward into the mid/southern Atlantic Coast, while high pressure at the sfc settles into the southern Atlantic Basin.
Meanwhile a low pressure system over the central Plains will be tracking northeastward.
253 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 - A cold front will begin to approach the region tonight bringing numerous showers and thunderstorms through Monday.
Another low pressure system takes shape in the Plains and lifts into the Great Lakes late this weekend. It will drive its cold front into (Sunday night) and thru (Monday) the FA, bringing showers/storms with it. Strong storm potential cannot be ruled out, but generally looks to stay closer to the track of the low, or west of our area.
The core of the upper low will advance into the Great Lakes region by this afternoon with only some modest midlevel troughing remaining in place over West Texas.
1231 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 GOES East water vapor imagery & RAP analysis indicate stout upper cold core trough digging over the Four Corners, which is leading to widespread ascent, convection & severe weather across the Great Plains. Our region remains in the drier pattern, with center of mean ridging in the Carolinas & sfc subtropical high centered in the western Atlantic. Seasonably warm lows, some 5-10 deg F above normal, in the low-mid 60s are expected.
Through the day tomorrow, the low levels will begin to become more unstable due to diurnal heating, so a re- intensification of storms is expected across mainly far northeastern portions of the CWA.
Trough over MN starting to lift into Ontario, and as expected most of the light rain has tapered off. Tonight should be pretty quiet with brief ridging between systems, although cloud cover should keep all but the northern tier above freezing. Upper low will start to lift into Neb/SD tomorrow, then up into our CWA Sunday night before going into northern MN on Monday.
Meanwhile, longwave troughing ejecting over the Great Plains early this morning will lift into the Great Lakes by Monday morning. A cold front will continue to push south of the CWA today, eventually mixing back north as a warm front late tonight into Monday as a surface cyclone associated with aforementioned troughing progresses across the Upper Midwest. Otherwise, much cooler temperatures are in store today as highs stay in the 50s for most areas this afternoon.
A line of showers and thunderstorms is expected to form ahead of a cold front Sunday night into Monday, where strong to severe storms capable of damaging winds, large hail, and locally heavy rainfall could occur.
Although there will not be near as significant of shear or instability as was present today, there is a 15-30% chance of severe weather (within 25 points of any given point) with the highest threat in northwest AR.
Water levels will rise with these consistant winds and levels 1-2ft above normal levels should be the result and today should be the highest of the 3 days that this will be possible. The upper trough is moving just a bit farther east this morning and SPC has been updating their risk areas farther east. The current line of storms over TX will continue eastward at a slow pace eventually becoming orphaned as the cold front backs off in east TX. But instead of decaying, this line will have support from the H3 jet with the upper trough to our NW coupling with the strong almost zonal flow coming across the EastPac into Mexico and over the gulf. The upper trough will not move much farther east than the Arkansas/Louisiana area Monday.
334 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 Through tonight: We remain in a warm southerly flow regime this morning with a moderate surface pressure gradient between a potent storm system over the Plains and ridging along the Atlantic coast. Through the day, the upper trough to our west will progress eastward, with the associated surface cyclone lifting northward toward the upper Midwest into tonight. Convection is expected to occur today ahead of the trailing cold front from coastal Texas through the ArkLaTex into the Ozarks. Warm and humid conditions will continue through the rest of the period under the influence of broad upper ridging with intermittent disturbances. Late week, a weak cold front could bring slightly cooler temperatures, especially north of HWY 82, though significant airmass change is unlikely.
Highs will be a couple of degrees cooler today for most locations, but still near normal for late April.
244 AM EDT Sun Apr 28 2024 Weak high pressure centered northeast of the region will remain in control through Monday along with a warming trend.
At 09Z this morning, mid-level low pressure was spinning over southwest Nebraska. Thinking is that there will be enough forcing along the boundary and ahead of the trough axis aloft to generate scattered storms this afternoon, mainly in far eastern sections of the forecast area. The cold front should pass to the east of the area late this evening as high pressure begins to build in. High pressure will move southeast Monday as the next in a series of mid-level systems digs across the Pacific Northwest. Conditions should stay dry Monday as temps warm into the low 70s.
Weather becomes a bit unsettled Monday as a strong cold front moving thru the PacNW skirts northern NEvada. Overnight lows range in the low 20s to low 30s.
Partly cloudy skies will also lead to another day of highs reaching the lower 80s this afternoon.
Windy conditions continue across the Keys this morning with KBYX radar detecting a few showers over the Straits of Florida, mainly south of the Lower and Middle Keys. From synopsis, a sprawling high pressure system centered southeast of New England will maintain fresh to occasionally strong easterly breezes this afternoon through tonight. As the high presses south into the western North Atlantic, breezes will slacken, although occasionally fresh breezes will continue through the first half of the week.
Afterwards, skies should clear for the afternoon allowing temperatures to climb into the lower to middle 80s.
633 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 Through tonight: We remain in a warm southerly flow regime this morning with a moderate surface pressure gradient between a potent storm system over the Plains and ridging along the Atlantic coast. Through the day, the upper trough to our west will progress eastward, with the associated surface cyclone lifting northward toward the upper Midwest into tonight. Convection is expected to occur today ahead of the trailing cold front from coastal Texas through the ArkLaTex into the Ozarks. Warm and humid conditions will continue through the rest of the period under the influence of broad upper ridging with intermittent disturbances. Late week, a weak cold front could bring slightly cooler temperatures, especially north of HWY 82, though significant airmass change is unlikely.
Don't see a need to adjust temperatures yet as these clouds should dissipate soon, and none of the high res or rapid update guidance show any substantial difference in forecast highs in those areas vs the current forecast. A large high pressure ridge through the lower and mid levels will continue to be located east of the area today and tonight, just of the NC/SC coastline. With the southerly low level flow and scattered to no cloud cover, highs today will be warm, in the lower 80s in most Valley locations.
639 AM EDT Sun Apr 28 2024 High pressure will slowly exit to the east today. A cold front approaches today and crosses the region tonight. High pressure builds in on Monday.
Currently, the main area of rain is in the Aberdeen, SD area, with the upper level low center towards Rapid City. Temperatures will be cooler today thanks to the rain and persistent cloud coverage.
Overall, no changes from previous forecast packages with quiet weather conditions and cooler than normal temperatures today and Monday (near normal temps on Monday).
The unsettled weather pattern resumes on Monday as a cold front crosses the region with gusty winds, showers a few thunderstorms.
1002 AM EDT Sun Apr 28 2024 High pressure will remain anchored offshore through mid week. A cold front may then impact the area late in the week. Aforementioned low cloud and fog bank has quickly dissipated as heating begins in earnest over eastern NC under high pressure anchored offshore while mid-level ridge and subsidence remains overhead. This is about 5 degrees, or so, warmer than normal for late April.
641 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 (Today through Monday night) A weak cold front has been cruising south through the area tonight, bringing in a marginally cooler air mass with northwest winds. Subtle ridging aloft takes over Monday, allowing for the start of a much warmer week.
Highs should respond into the low/mid 80s over the interior with upper 70s/low 80s along the coast.
After an unseasonably cool Sunday morning, southeastern Arizona will undergo a rapid warming trend over the next few days as mid- level heights rise and a warmer low level air mass moves in. Under sunny skies today (with some lingering clouds around the Whites), high temperatures will be about 8 degrees warmer than yesterday, and then climb another 6 to 8 degrees on Monday.
645 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 (Today) An upper ridge pattern continues to gradually move eastward into the mid/southern Atlantic Coast, while high pressure at the sfc settles into the southern Atlantic Basin.
Comfortably warm, dry and occasionally breezy springtime conditions to end the weekend with ridging aloft to the surface. Ridging features to weaken late today, tonight and into Monday with lighter winds and the seabreeze returning Monday afternoon. Ridging aloft and at the surface remain over the state this morning leading to another primarily dry and occasionally breezy day across the area. A slight uptick in shower chances is likely on Tue-Wed afternoons as moisture briefly increases over the area, before high pressure again builds over the E U. High pressure with a tight pressure gradient remains over the waters today with advisory conditions diminishing to cautionary levels this morning. High pressure remains the primary influence over the area through the week with minimum RH values in the 30s-40s to approaching critical thresholds for a few hours in the afternoons.
326 PM EDT Sun Apr 28 2024 Offshore high pressure leads to dry conditions through Monday.
Not expecting a huge change in temperatures behind the front, but northerly winds should bring in a slightly cooler and drier airmass.
A light westerly breeze continues on the wake of yesterday and last night's departing trough, which has maintained a negative tilt as it swings across the plains, shunting moisture (and severe weather) toward East Texas and the Lower Mississippi Valley. As winds shift to the south and southeast and return flow commences Monday night with the return of the low- level jet, the increase in moisture will yield an increase in low temperatures, which will range from the 50s west to 60s east.
Temperatures will be mostly in the low to mid 80s on Monday, though portions of Southwest Florida could see temperatures rise into the upper 80s.
239 PM EDT Sun Apr 28 2024 High pressure southeast of the area leads to summer like weather thru Monday, with hot afternoons.
A series of troughs moving in from the west coast will move across the region to start the week. These systems are considerably cooler than the recent systems we've have come through, so snow levels will drop much lower.
The primary upper low pressure system that brought last night's severe weather still remains to our northwest (centered over southwest Nebraska) with small vorticity lobes currently in the vicinity of central Oklahoma and eastern New Mexico/TX panhandle.
This trend will continue into the early to mid afternoon hours when at that time focus will be on additional convection that develops along the dryline/cold front.
Synoptic overview and current conditions: Water vapor imagery and upper level analysis show upper low circulation over southern SD into northern NE with trough axis becoming negatively tilted. Southwest flow continues over the area southeast of the low.
Given the increasing forcing ahead of a cold front extending from western Iowa into Texas, think showers and thunderstorms will blossom within the jet by mid-evening. Will still need to watch for the potential for scattered convective development along the slowly departing cold front during the afternoon: however, none of the CAMs are particularly bullish at this time.
Strong high pressure is expected to slowly weaken in the W Atlantic Monday through mid week allowing the gradient to relax with a return of the bay and sea breezes during the afternoons.
Even the 8-14 day outlooks have us warmer and wetter than normal. Today will be a warm, dry and breezy day with afternoon highs creeping into the low to mid 80s for most.
High pressure brings quiet weather and slowly warming temperatures this week. Breezy onshore winds will keep temperatures along the coast cooler however.
Ultimately, mid level troughing to our west will help to push a surface cold front into our area on Monday.
Healthy southeast winds in the lower levels and 0-6km shear near 50kts will be enough to get storms rotating.
322 PM EDT Sun Apr 28 2024 High pressure will remain anchored offshore through mid week. A cold front may then impact the area late in the week. Aforementioned low cloud and fog bank has quickly dissipated as heating begins in earnest over eastern NC under high pressure anchored offshore while mid-level ridge and subsidence remains overhead. This is about 5 degrees, or so, warmer than normal for late April.
Redevelopment of thunderstorms remains expected from mid afternoon into the evening in advance of the cold front/dryline.
Water levels will rise with these consistent winds and levels 1-2ft above normal levels should be the result and today should be the highest of the 3 days that this will be possible. The upper trough is moving just a bit farther east this morning and SPC has been updating their risk areas farther east. The current line of storms over TX will continue eastward at a slow pace eventually becoming orphaned as the cold front backs off in east TX. But instead of decaying, this line will have support from the H3 jet with the upper trough to our NW coupling with the strong almost zonal flow coming across the EastPac into Mexico and over the gulf. The upper trough will not move much farther east than the Arkansas/Louisiana area Monday.
334 PM EDT Sun Apr 28 2024 A cold front drops south through the area this evening bringing a round of showers with embedded thunder. High pressure builds in Monday for fair weather.
257 PM MDT Sun Apr 28 2024 - Warmer and drier conditions to start the week.
- Warmer than normal conditions continue through the week.
400 PM EDT Sun Apr 28 2024 High pressure should remain off the southeast United States through mid-week. High pressure is currently centered near Myrtle Beach, South Carolina. A closed mid-level low over the Northern Plains lifting north into Ontario combined with a low-amplitude speed max racing through the Southern Plains sliding into the TN Valley will slightly suppress mid level heights (15 to 25m H5 height falls) and shift the low- level anticyclone centered over central NC towards the coast through Mon night.
137 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 - A cold front's approach tonight will drive a line of storms into/across the area.
Discussion: An upper trough will lift northeast from the central plains this afternoon, into the upper midwest by tomorrow afternoon and evening. Ridging aloft will hang in there over the southeast through late tonight before height falls begin to spread east across TN tomorrow as the effects of the midwest trough begin to be seen. And we should see another day of above normal temperatures tomorrow, with highs in the low 80s expected.