Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
734 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2024 Surface ridging was laid out over E OK and NW AR this evening, and will only slowly slide east tonight into tomorrow. Favorable positioning of the ridge over far E OK into NW AR toward daybreak will allow temps to drop near or slightly below freezing in some spots. A Freeze Warning has been issued for the four far northwest Arkansas counties, leveraging not only the official forecast but also higher NBM probabilities for freezing temperatures there.
711 PM EST Thu Nov 14 2024 Widespread rain will become more scattered this afternoon and diminish overnight as low pressure crosses. KEY MESSAGES: - Light lain lingering in the area to exit east over the coming hours ------------------------------------------------------------------ The center of the upper low is slowly diving across Ohio and generally weakening. Overall probability is low, though highest probabilities are northwest of Pittsburgh and across the ridges with upsloping.
(This afternoon through Friday) Surface analysis shows a cold front across far NW GA with a wedge still in place across far NE GA. High pressure, cooler temperatures and dry conditions will build in behind the exiting frontal boundary.
711 PM EST Thu Nov 14 2024 Low pressure finally exits late Friday into Friday night. High pressure returns late Friday night into the early part of the weekend.
642 PM EST Thu Nov 14 2024 (Through Friday) A cold front is moving through the area this afternoon with only light showers along and ahead of the front. Behind the front, cooler air will arrive on northwesterly winds. Temperatures tonight will be in the lower to middle 50s for most of the area with upper 40s in our far northwest areas. Mainly sunny skies are expected on Friday as high pressure builds in with highs in the upper 60s to middle 70s.
636 PM EST Thu Nov 14 2024 - Scattered light shower chances linger through this evening as low pressure gradually shifts to our east.
High pressure and a drier airmass will then build into the area as we head into the weekend. While the axis of a mid-level trough is moving east of the area, and heights are beginning to rise, cool NW flow on the back side of the trough at 850mb is continuing to support thick stratocumulus clouds. Highs on Friday will be in the low to mid 50s with lows Friday night in the upper 30s to lower 40s.
With the upper level trough axis shifting to the east of the area, winds aloft have shifted out of the northwest which is leading to drier air funneling into the area aloft. Lingering low level moisture will continue to support low clouds remaining in the area which may not clear until after midnight when a cold front will push through, scouring out the lower clouds. Colder air moves in behind the cold front, although lingering clouds for much of the night will prevent lows from dropping below average, with lows in the low to mid 40s. Closed upper low will be moving off the east coast during the day Friday, taking the associated surface cold front out to sea with it.
516 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2024 (This evening through Friday night) Upper troughing that brought yesterday's strong to severe storms extended from the western Great Lakes to the Carolinas this afternoon, with ridging across the Great Plains. Yesterday's cold front extended from the eastern Florida Panhandle to the central Gulf of Mexico with high pressure centered over Texas.
537 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2024 - Mostly dry conditions and warmer temperatures (high temperatures 10 to 15 degrees above normal).
Near-freezing low temperatures in the Valley over the weekend may lead to areas of frost.
(Now through Friday) A cooler and much drier airmass will be in place through the near term period as upper troughing moves into the western Atlantic and an upper ridge builds into the local region from the west. At the surface, the cold front which began passing overhead this morning, has cleared the remainder of the local CWA. Behind it, a large high pressure system located over the central US will push towards the east throughout the period. 5 inches), along with subsidence from the deep layer ridging overhead, no rain is expected through the period. Temperatures will finally drop to where we should be for this time of year starting tonight, with lows ranging from the mid 40s inland to the low 50s along the coast and highs tomorrow only topping out in the upper 60s to low 70s.
Temperatures as we approach 9 PM have chilled into the low/mid 50s with northwest winds of 5-10 mph. Although a cold front moved in a west to east manner across the area earlier, a surge of moisture in the lower altitudes (1500-5000 ft AGL) was producing the clouds.
Convective showers and thunderstorms will continue to impact the region in the wake of a strong cold front. Cooler temperatures are expected for late this week into the weekend. Convective showers are still being observed across the CWA this afternoon as the axis of a cold upper trough moves over the region and generates instability. Shower activity will gradually taper off overnight into early Friday morning with the arrival of a cold, dry airmass on the backside of the upper trough. Conditions will clear out Friday as high pressure nudges its way into the PNW. Probabilities are greater for near-freezing temperatures approaching the coast Friday night with high pressure subsidence within a drier airmass. After a brief period of ridging and warmer temperatures, mid range models are noting another upper level trough with exceptionally cold temperatures swinging down into the PNW.
515 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2024 Updated at 513 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2024 - Warmer temperatures expected Friday into the weekend.
909 PM EST Thu Nov 14 2024 Low pressure passing to our south will weaken with showers across Western New York tapering off late. A slow moving area of high pressure will then bring fair and dry weather for the upcoming weekend. A weakening area of low pressure across western Lake Erie will continue to move slowly into Ohio valley overnight. Lows will mainly be in the mid 30s to lower 40s across Western NY but it will be much cooler across the Eastern Lake Ontario region where there will be some radiational cooling underneath thin high cloud cover. Mid level and surface ridging builds in fairly aggressively on Friday behind tonights low. This should be spatially limited to areas southeast of Lake Erie, particularly the higher terrain of the western Southern Tier.
Relatively high amplitude pattern today and tonight as a deep trough over the western U. pumps up a downstream ridge from the Gulf of Mexico to the Great Lakes region. An U/L disturbance will dig over northern Baja California toward the base of the west coast trough and will cut-off Saturday and Saturday night, with brief split flow developing as the northern stream rides over the cut-off.
We do have some breaks in the low clouds across the area as clouds associated with the front depart to the east and post-frontal low clouds are moving in from the northwest. We're transitioning to the backside of the upper trough, with weak northwest flow advecting cool 850 temperatures around and over us through the short term.
246 AM EST Fri Nov 15 2024 - Patchy drizzle will dissipate this morning but cloudy skies will remain through Saturday with highs in the low/mid 50s.
1230 AM EST Fri Nov 15 2024 (Through Saturday) A cold front continues to push across south-central Georgia and the FL Big Bend region at this time. Cooler and drier air will trickle in overnight, with low temperatures on Friday morning ranging from the upper 40s to mid 50s. By sunrise, the low stratus could overspread much of the area. So mainly sunny afternoon skies are expected as high pressure builds in, with high in the upper 60s to middle 70s.
1135 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2024 - Warmer temperatures Friday and Saturday.
A gloomy start, with clouds likely persisting through the day underneath a lowering subsidence inversion as an upper level ridge builds over the Western/Central Great Lakes during the day. Upper level ridge (~573 DAM at 500 MB) building further and directly overhead of the Central Great lakes on Saturday, with return low level flow around the departing high kicking in late in the day.
1038 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2024 Updated at 1038 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2024 - Warmer temperatures expected Friday into the weekend.
Overall probability is low, though highest probabilities are northwest of Pittsburgh and across the ridges with upsloping. Building high pressure across the Great Lakes by Friday evening should help return dry weather to the area through the weekend.
It's been another mild night with lows staying in the upper 40s for those stuck under clouds and dropping into the low 40s under clearing skies. After the couple of damp days we've had, expect things to dry out today as upper level ridging moves over the eastern U. Temperatures should be a few degrees cooler Saturday morning allowing for increased fog development then.
Discussion: Upper level trough is now to our east and high pressure is to our west. The ridge axis is centered along the Mississippi River Valley.
Surface analysis depicts weak high pressure over the western Atlantic, a cold front extending from the Carolina coast across the Gulf of Mexico to near the Yucatan Peninsula, and Tropical Storm Sara along the northeastern coast of Honduras. Aloft, the lower to mid level ridge axis remains near the Keys and South Florida. 38 inches (near normal for the date), although it appears that some of this moisture is in the high levels as evidenced by areas of cirrus cloudiness streaking overhead.
(Today and tonight) Cold front has cleared the southeast Big Bend with the supporting upper level trough moving off the eastern seaboard. Upstream, mid level ridging will amplify while trekking slowly east through the Mid-South.
944 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2024 - Mostly dry conditions and warmer temperatures (high temperatures 10 to 15 degrees above normal).
A frost advisory has been issued for portions of northwest Arkansas, valid late tonight through early Friday morning, due to light winds, low-level moisture and near- freezing temperatures. Low temperatures will be a bit warmer Friday night, mainly in the upper 30s to mid 40s.
1021 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2024 Surface ridging was laid out over E OK and NW AR this evening, and will only slowly slide east tonight into tomorrow. Favorable positioning of the ridge over far E OK into NW AR toward daybreak will allow temps to drop near or slightly below freezing in some spots. A Freeze Warning has been issued for the four far northwest Arkansas counties, leveraging not only the official forecast but also higher NBM probabilities for freezing temperatures there.
The current forecast is on track with temperatures falling into the low to mid 40s.
The showers are associated with an upper trough near the coast. A closed low will develop along the base of the trough and track eastward across northern Nevada on Friday, then turn to the northeast into southeast Idaho Friday evening. The track of the low will determine the highest precip totals, which at this time still appears to be areas near the Nevada border. Snowfall totals of up to 2 inches with locally 4 inches are expected along the southern areas near the Nevada border, mainly in the higher elevations.
216 AM EST Fri Nov 15 2024 - Mostly dry and somewhat warmer weather returns late tonight into Saturday before the next chance of rain late weekend. Rain associated with the trof that spread n into roughly the eastern 2/3rds of Upper MI late last night and early this morning has been diminishing. Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb closed low over the Rockies and a ridge over the Mississippi Valley and trough off the east coast 00z Sat. Troughing moves into the northern plains 00z Sun with ridging over the ern U.
High pressure will slide from the Arklatex area to the Ohio Valley through Saturday while expanding to include much of the eastern CONUS. Some of the cooler locations may flirt with the 35 to 36 degree mark in the north, so isolated instances of frost may be apparent on rooftops and car windshields.
1033 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2024 The evening sfc analysis indicates sfc ridging anchored from the Mid-MS Valley S into the Four State Region.
Late day sunshine will help to warm temperatures into the low to mid 60s once again despite the light northerly flow.
939 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2024 The evening sfc analysis indicates sfc ridging anchored from the Mid-MS Valley S into the Four State Region.
1121 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2024 (This evening through Friday night) Upper troughing that brought yesterday's strong to severe storms extended from the western Great Lakes to the Carolinas this afternoon, with ridging across the Great Plains. Yesterday's cold front extended from the eastern Florida Panhandle to the central Gulf of Mexico with high pressure centered over Texas. The surface and upper high pressures will move slowly east over the next 36 hours with the axis east of the local area by Saturday morning. Would likely trend toward the warmer end of high temperature guidance tomorrow, which the NBM has accounted for. Local tide levels should not be a problem for the high tide cycle tonight, but may reach the low end of advisory level conditions tomorrow night, and more confidently Saturday night as return flow strengthens.
pdf Cold front pushes well S of the waters Today, with high pressure building to the N Tonight and Saturday.
- Slightly above average temperatures in the lower 50s Friday and Saturday as high pressure becomes established.
Friday will see similar conditions to those of today with highs generally in the 70s everywhere except the warmer Rio Grande Plains. Southeasterly wind increases over the southern Edwards Plateau late morning tomorrow ahead of a deepening trough over the western US with lighter wind elsewhere. Overnight low temperatures will be warmer than tonight ranging from the low to upper 50s.
Upper level ridging will remain firmly in place today, but will begin to shift east allowing for increasing southeasterly wind by the afternoon.
Tonight's minimum temperatures are expected to be considerably warmer that those of this morning, but the high temperatures for Saturday will not achieve much more than those of today due to the mostly cloudy skies.
An upper low near Washington DC will move southeast and strengthen as it moves offshore this afternoon.
347 AM EST Fri Nov 15 2024 (Today through Saturday) An upper low over the mid-Atlantic states will move offshore today. A weak high pressure ridge over the MS Valley will shift E to W GA by late Saturday. At the surface, low pressure near Cape Hatteras will shift offshore. A high pressure ridge over the MS Valley will shift E to the OH Valley. Low cloudiness across the SE portion of the area will gradually thin as the upper low moves away from the area and dry air filters into the region.
1148 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2024 - Dry weather and above normal temperatures expected through Saturday, with highs generally in the low to mid 60s.
High pressure shifting into the Ohio Valley will continue the northwest flow over the area throughout Friday. The high pressure center will move near enough to allow for moderate radiational cooling tonight, and low temps should fall into the low 40's across the area.
KEY MESSAGES: - Drying and warming trend begins Saturday and lasts through the weekend ------------------------------------------------------------------- Patchy drizzle and/or light showers chances will continue overnight, with the highest probabilities northwest of Pittsburgh and across the ridges. Building high pressure across the Great Lakes by early Saturday will help return dry weather to the area through the weekend.
The northeastern foothills saw the highest rain amounts in the last 12 hours with up to 2 inches estimated as thunderstorms trained over the area.
532 AM CST Fri Nov 15 2024 - Temperatures trend cooler to start this weekend with a 90 percent or greater chance of precipitation overall in the north and west central tonight through Saturday night.
608 AM EST Fri Nov 15 2024 A few showers or patchy light drizzle will linger this morning as a mid level trough moves away from the region. Although high pressure will build into the region tonight into Saturday, cloud cover will linger.
604 AM EST Fri Nov 15 2024 - Patchy drizzle will dissipate this morning but cloudy skies will remain through Saturday with highs in the low/mid 50s.
(Today through Saturday) An upper low over the mid-Atlantic states will move offshore today. A weak high pressure ridge over the MS Valley will shift E to W GA by late Saturday. At the surface, low pressure near Cape Hatteras will shift offshore. A high pressure ridge over the MS Valley will shift E to the OH Valley. Low cloudiness across the SE portion of the area will gradually thin as the upper low moves away from the area and dry air filters into the region.
404 AM EST Fri Nov 15 2024 A few showers or patchy light drizzle will linger this morning as a mid level trough moves away from the region. Although high pressure will build into the region tonight into Saturday, cloud cover will linger.
Near normal high temperatures today before turning much cooler this weekend as a weather system passes through the area.
626 AM EST Fri Nov 15 2024 (Today and tonight) Cold front has cleared the southeast Big Bend with the supporting upper level trough moving off the eastern seaboard. Upstream, mid level ridging will amplify while trekking slowly east through the Mid-South.
338 AM CST Fri Nov 15 2024 - Temperatures trend cooler to start this weekend with a 90 percent or greater chance of precipitation overall in the north and west central tonight through Saturday night.
Seasonal conditions are expected to continue today and tonight under the influence of high pressure. Temperatures quickly rebound into the 70s however, as ridging begins to build from the west into our area tonight into tomorrow, reinforcing dry conditions this weekend. As high pressure shifts east, moisture begins to recover as southerly flow is reestablished.
521 AM CST Fri Nov 15 2024 Seasonal conditions are expected to continue today and tonight under the influence of high pressure. Temperatures quickly rebound into the 70s however, as ridging begins to build from the west into our area tonight into tomorrow, reinforcing dry conditions this weekend. As high pressure shifts east, moisture begins to recover as southerly flow is reestablished.
(Today through Saturday) Large synoptic dome of high pressure over the area this morning providing some very nice conditions. The center of this high is located over TX this morning and will move east through the short term. The upper trough over the west coast will dig and deepen causing the ridge to amplify downstream through the next few days as well. It is between these two high centers as they both move east that a portion of moisture will move with the 850mb flow up the western gulf into the new cold front that will be developing in the Rockies keeping our area in dry but slightly moistening conditions as return flow starts late Sat.
950 AM EST Fri Nov 15 2024 A much drier and, thus cooler, airmass filtering southward in the wake of last nights frontal passage has lead to 24-hour temperature change of about 8-17 degrees as of 9 AM. Deep northwesterly flow will continue cool air advection into the area through tonight leading to a much cooler day this afternoon with highs generally in the upper 60s and low 70s.
Temperatures currently range from the mid 30s across the higher elevations to the mid 40s over the Delta under clear skies. Area will remain under the influence of high pressure both aloft and on the surface today and tonight before the axis of said ridge moves to the east Saturday. The ridge will be over the SE CONUS by the end of the period as a significant trough drops into the west. Overnight lows Saturday night will be a little warmer as southwest flow increases.
Light snow is expected to spill into the lower elevations as well Saturday.
253 PM EST Fri Nov 15 2024 (This afternoon through Saturday) High pressure and dry conditions will persist through the short term portion of the forecast. High pressure currently centered across the Mid Mississippi River Valley will move east through Saturday with ridging building southward. These clouds are on the back side of a departing low pressure system off the coast of the Carolinas.
Lows should bottom out in the upper 30s to lower 40s, which is a few degrees warmer than early this morning. Saturday: High pressure ridge shifts into the eastern Great Lakes region with a return flow bringing increasing clouds.
An upper level trough continues to move across Nevada this morning.
High pressure becomes firmly in place by this point as well resulting in light and variable winds that linger into much of daytime Saturday. A gloomy start, with clouds likely persisting through the day underneath a lowering subsidence inversion as an upper level ridge builds over the Western/Central Great Lakes during the day. Upper level ridge (~573 DAM at 500 MB) building further and directly overhead of the Central Great lakes on Saturday, with return low level flow around the departing high kicking in late in the day.
1114 AM EST Fri Nov 15 2024 - cloudy skies will remain through Saturday with highs in the low/mid 50s.
(This evening through Saturday night) Upper ridging over the Mississippi River Valley, with a deep trough over the Intermountain west. At the surface, high pressure was centered over Illinois, with low pressure on the lee side of the Rockies.
Surface ridging behind the front that moved through a couple of days ago continues to be the primary meteorological driver for the seasonal weather today, which will reinforce the cooler regime over us right now. Robust mixing continues in the lower levels so winds could be fairly breezy especially over bodies of water today.
1004 AM EST Fri Nov 15 2024 Low pressure from the Maritimes will impact the region today into the weekend.
(Tonight) High pressure will continue to dominate the region tonight, keeping rain out of the forecast.
- Drying out and turning warmer to begin the weekend.
117 PM MST Fri Nov 15 2024 KEY MESSAGES: - Low pressure system moving up from the south brings rain tonight.
(Tonight through Saturday night) An upper ridge to the east and trough to the west has the flow over Texas from the southwest. High pressure to our northeast is producing southeasterly flow in the low levels. This moistening will continue tonight as the low level southeasterly flow strengthens. Temperatures will be warmer with lows around 10 degrees warmer than this morning. Warmer, moister air will continue to return from the Gulf. Cloudy skies will redevelop as warmer, moister air moves in.
This Evening/Tonight Currently this afternoon, a closed low is located to our east with a cold front having pushed well to our south and east. Strong ridging is also noted well to our west.
Wind will continue to flow in from the northwest, ushering in lake enhanced moisture to promote the low hanging ceilings along with embedded light drizzle/rain showers. We should finally see some clearing take shape around midday Saturday as the upper trough swings further off the eastern seaboard.
1109 AM EST Fri Nov 15 2024 High pressure continues across the CWA. (Today through Saturday) An upper low over the mid-Atlantic states will move offshore today. A weak high pressure ridge over the MS Valley will shift E to W GA by late Saturday. At the surface, low pressure near Cape Hatteras will shift offshore. A high pressure ridge over the MS Valley will shift E to the OH Valley. Low cloudiness across the SE portion of the area will gradually thin as the upper low moves away from the area and dry air filters into the region.