Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
The weak cold front responsible for the convection, has become nearly stationary near Central TX. A few spots in Central and East TX will likely stay in the mid 90s given the higher cloud cover. /Issued 234 AM CDT Sat Aug 3 2024/ /Sunday Night Onward/ A dominant mid level ridge centered over the Rockies will expand east through the Southern Plains and Mississippi Valley at the start of the work week.
We put out a quick update this morning, based on trends in the higher resolution models. We did keep isolated thunderstorms in overnight, as we will likely see a few random lightning strikes over the higher elevations. High pressure overhead will allow widespread temperatures to rise into the mid to upper 90s, although temperatures won't be quite as warm as yesterday's as the ridge axis shifts slightly east and increased cloud cover suppresses daytime heating a bit. Expect a 5 to 10 degree drop in daytime highs tomorrow as this system flattens the ridge.
In addition, with fairly weak winds in the lowest 0-6km, slow- moving storms may produce some locally heavy downpours. Overnight lows will be warm again ranging from the lower 70s to near 80 along the Rio Grande.
Rain potential diminishes further tomorrow as high pressure and excessive heat build in.
1151 AM CDT Sat Aug 3 2024 - Slightly cooler and drier today into Sunday.
Once these storms slide southward, ridging sets up again over our area, and conditions become a bit drier again with only isolated to scattered rain chances forecast for Sunday.
A Tropical Storm Warning has been extended through all coastal waters west of the 7-Mile Bridge. The two main steering mechanisms will be a mid-upper level trough moving into the Southeast and an expansive high in the North Atlantic. Daytime highs will reach the lower 90s, so we will be back in the depths of summertime. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for all coastal waters west of the 7-Mile Bridge. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for all coastal waters between the 7-Mile Bridge and Channel 5 Bridge.
Mid-level high pressure will remain centered over the Four Corners region of the U.
Upper-level troughing continues to traverse toward the eastern seaboard this afternoon while amplified ridging persists over the western CONUS. With our area residing just downstream of the ridge axis, weak cool air advection with a north-northwesterly flow aids in keeping today's highs in the low to mid 90s (which is near normal). Tomorrow's temperatures are expected to be slightly warmer as the robust heat dome out west subtlety meanders further east while the downstream low pressure system exits the overall synoptic picture over the next few days.
Weak, but dry northerly mid level flow will continue with ridging centered over the Rocky Mountain region.
147 PM EDT Sat Aug 3 2024 A mid level low pressure system will rotate east into the upper Ohio Valley and eastern Tennessee Valley today, bringing chances for showers and thunderstorms. Drier weather will move into the area tonight into Sunday as weak high pressure builds south into the region.
1104 AM PDT Sat Aug 3 2024 Updated Aviation Discussion High pressure persists over the western US through the weekend maintaining warm and dry weather.
With the drier air that was filtered in behind the cold front that pushed through yesterday, it will be slightly cooler tonight.
241 PM EDT Sat Aug 3 2024 Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will taper off this evening as an upper level low pressure system moves off to our east.
/29 (Now through Sunday) An upper trof over the eastern states retreats further inland while Tropical Depression Four is forecast to progress northward across the eastern Gulf. Lows tonight range from the lower 70s inland to the upper 70s at the immediate coast.
Dewpoint values have fallen into the lower 70s across much of south Arkansas and southeast Oklahoma. Tonight, with drier air in place, overnight low temperatures are forecast to fall to around 70 degrees across southeast Oklahoma with the rest of the region settling in the low to mid 70s. Stable conditions to persist through Sunday into Sunday night as surface and upper-level ridging prevail areawide. On Sunday night, overnight low temperatures will once again average in the low to mid 70s.
The low level moisture combined with dry air aloft and light surface winds will be conducive for fog to develop late tonight. During the day Sunday, a mid level long wave trough is progged to move southwestward around the eastern periphery of an upper level high pressure that is situated across New Mexico and Texas and low pressure located across the eastern Gulf of Mexico. This trough can be seen currently on satellite stretched across the northeastern portion of TX and LA. Models are in better agreement than previous runs that precipitation associated with the trough will develop tonight across Central and East TX and move into the Victoria Crossroads on Sunday. The higher heat indices should be short lived and not widespread enough to warrant a Heat Advisory due to RH values forecast to be a tad lower.
1132 AM EDT Sat Aug 3 2024 Periodic showers and thunderstorms continue today with a slow moving trough of low pressure.
The little trough within the larger ridge, will be enough to lower our temperatures a couple degrees for Sunday, but highs will still be in the mid 90s to around 102 degrees. (Sunday night through next Saturday) After the short and small reprieve this weekend, all indications are that the upper level ridge will build back into the area for most of the upcoming week. In fact, instead of being centered just off to the west, this ridge looks to center more directly over the area.
(This evening through Sunday) A stout upper level high centered over the Rockies continues its influence over the weather pattern in the western CONUS.
* Storm activity will continue pushing northward across western NV and eastern CA through this afternoon, then the high resolution guidance favors additional development over northeast CA- northwest NV from late afternoon into the evening. TEMPERATURES/WINDS THIS WEEK: * Temperatures for the upcoming week will run about 3-6 degrees above average due to a prevailing ridge over the southwest US, with highs in the upper 90s-near 100 for lower elevations and mid-upper 80s for Sierra communities. * A slight cooling may arrive by late week as a bit more troughing over the northwest US could flatten/weaken the ridge's western extent over CA/NV. Most afternoons should see typical SW-W breezes with gusts to 25 mph, with a potential slight increase by late week if the flatter ridge scenario occurs.
1149 AM CDT Sat Aug 3 2024 (Today and tonight) A weak cold front will move into the Big Country this morning, possibly reaching northern portions of the Concho Valley and Heartland by this afternoon. Temperatures will be a bit cooler today, with afternoon highs between 99 and 104 degrees, coolest across southern sections. Lows tonight will be in the low to mid 70s.
Slightly warmer than average temperatures will start the week followed by a cooler temps late week.
1146 AM CDT Sat Aug 3 2024 (Today through Sunday afternoon) The seemingly ever-present ridge to the west is in the process of retrograding, and will settle over the Four Corners Region and Great Basin today. Given the ridge's westward shift, decreasing thicknesses allow for a subtle cooling trend today, with temperatures a couple degrees cooler than yesterday across the board. Lows overnight are forecast to fall into the lower to middle 70s for most, with 60s in the mountains and across portions of Lea County.
1211 PM CDT Sat Aug 3 2024 (Today through Sunday) 500 mb high pressure will remain centered over the Four Corners area of the United States and the dominant weather feature over the BRO CWFA through the period. 5 inches, dry weather will result for Deep South Texas, the Rio Grande Valley, and the lower Texas coastal waters. Meanwhile, temperature-wise, the presence of the mid-level ridge and limited cloud cover will combine to produce slightly above normal to above normal values for this time of year.
The weak cold front responsible for the convection, has become nearly stationary near Central TX. A few spots in Central and East TX will likely stay in the mid 90s given the higher cloud cover.
This trend will continue through this afternoon as a weak cold front moves through the region today. An upper low/trough will traverse the Ohio valley, eastern Kentucky, and southern Appalachian region today and tonight. Freezing levels will be lower with the upper trough/low moving through so I could see some small hail or gusty winds occurring with the stronger storms.
(This afternoon through Sunday night) Not much change is in for the short term, as the upper ridge continues to dominate. WV imagery shows said ridge centered just northeast of the Four Corners, resulting in meridional and even northeast flow aloft over West Texas and Southeast New Mexico this afternoon. Sunday could be the coolest day this forecast, as an inverted trough nudges under the ridge and moves in from the east, further reducing thicknesses.
Aloft troughing continues to move off to the east while ridging dominates and expands out west this weekend.
244 PM EDT Sat Aug 3 2024 High pressure in the Atlantic and an inland trough will prevail tonight. Low-level convergence is expected to shift east back into the Atlantic early Sunday morning with a broad southerly flow likely bringing isolated to scattered showers/tstms onshore prior to daybreak, especially across the lower South Carolina coast. Pops overnight were trended in this direction with the highest pops placed across the eastern portions of the Charleston Tri-County. Overnight lows will range from the lower-mid 70s inland to the upper 70s/lower 80s at the beaches.
(This evening through Sunday) A weak cold front has brought some relief from the humidity and heat risk today. As that trough/MCV continue southwestward toward the Big Bend region, tomorrow looks to be wholly dry and sunny across our area.
Showers will dissipate this evening as a cold front moves through the region. Discussion: A weak cold front is moving through the region this afternoon/evening. In the upper levels, a trough will continue to bring northwest flow to the region before exiting Sunday afternoon. With mostly sunny skies tomorrow, highs will be warmer in the upper 80s and lower 90s.
(Sunday through Saturday) Temps trend warmer Sunday with deeper moisture confined south of the region helping keep heat index values below critical levels.
(Rest of tonight) With high pressure remaining dominant over the Tennessee Valley, a fairly uneventful forecast remains on track for the overnight hours as temperatures slowly fall below the 80 degree mark. With slightly lower humidity over the area, overnight lows will fall to the lower 70s to upper 60s under mostly clear skies.
614 PM CDT Sat Aug 3 2024 (This evening through Sunday) A stout upper level high centered over the Rockies continues its influence over the weather pattern in the western CONUS.
636 PM CDT Sat Aug 3 2024 (This evening through Sunday) A weak cold front has brought some relief from the humidity and heat risk today. As that trough/MCV continue southwestward toward the Big Bend region, tomorrow looks to be wholly dry and sunny across our area.
853 PM CDT Sat Aug 3 2024 Surface analysis early this evening places a 1015 mb ridge of high pressure centered over Missouri.
We will see continual drier air and relatively cooler temperatures move in behind this front throughout the CWA, allowing for overnight lows in the mid to low 70s and RH of 85%-95%, providing some much needed respite against the oppressively hot and humid overnight lows we've had throughout late July. While a tropical system in the eastern Gulf is not likely to impact our area, it could aid in reinforcing the hot and dry pattern, with dry flow on the backside and enhanced ridging aloft.
417 PM CDT Sat Aug 3 2024 (This afternoon through Sunday night) Not much change is in for the short term, as the upper ridge continues to dominate. WV imagery shows said ridge centered just northeast of the Four Corners, resulting in meridional and even northeast flow aloft over West Texas and Southeast New Mexico this afternoon. Sunday could be the coolest day this forecast, as an inverted trough nudges under the ridge and moves in from the east, further reducing thicknesses.
744 PM EDT Sat Aug 3 2024 Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will taper off this evening as an upper level low pressure system moves off to our east.
944 PM EDT Sat Aug 3 2024 Numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected again Sunday, especially during the afternoon and evening hours, as a mid-level trough stalls across the region. Upper trough from the Ohio Valley southwest across the western Carolinas served as a source of convection earlier today, with numerous strong to severe thunderstorms moving across the area with very heavy rainfall in some locations. The bulk of precip has now moved east of the area, and CAMs are pessimistic for any widespread convection overnight, despite the lingering trough and slow moving surface front. Lows tonight in the low to mid 70s. A weak frontal boundary will be draped across the region on Sunday with upper troughing to the west.
Have fine tuned the POPs for tonight with the highest across the Hill Country and Edwards Plateau based on model/ensemble consensus. In addition, with fairly weak winds in the lowest 0-6km, slow- moving storms may produce some locally heavy downpours. Overnight lows will be warm again ranging from the lower 70s to near 80 along the Rio Grande.
The elevated southerly flow will make minor coastal flooding along the Atlantic beaches a concern, particularly at around the time of the higher high tide Sunday morning. A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for all coastal waters west of the 7-Mile Bridge. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for all coastal waters between the 7-Mile Bridge and Channel 5 Bridge.
657 PM EDT Sat Aug 3 2024 Showers and thunderstorms will dissipate this evening as a trough of low pressure exits to the northeast.
High pressure remains over the Pacific Northwest through the region.
1052 PM EDT Sat Aug 3 2024 Showers will end overnight as a trough of low pressure exits to the northeast.
The upper level trough departed east, loosing its influence over the local weather. Plenty of sunshine will allow afternoon temperatures to reach the lower 90s across the lowlands, ranging into the lower 70s across the northeast mountains. High pressure will start the period, with dry, and very warm conditions as upper ridge expands eastward into the area.
Heat dome will remain in place as moisture pooling ahead of a cold front will lead to higher Tds on Monday. The MCS track looks to be north of the area, but with a cooler and drier airmass across the area, hopefully this will limit precip potential into the the first full week of August.
Today, highs will be in the low to mid 90s with heat indices in the west and southwest counties in the triple digits. Monday, higher temperatures will be in western Alabama with highs around the low to mid 90s.
Meanwhile areawide, actual temperatures will reach into the lower 90's along the coast trending mid to upper 90's toward central or interior portions of SETX and SWLA with light and variable flow outside any isolated storms. Therefore, temperatures will trend a couple degrees warmer to begin the work week. Weak residual troughing along SELA may allow for a few Isolated showers or storms, but at the present time, these appear to be very limited at best east of the I-24 corridor.
328 AM EDT Sun Aug 4 2024 After a couple of morning showers east of Pittsburgh, mainly dry weather is expected today and tonight as high pressure builds in.
Sustained winds over American Falls Reservoir fall just below the low-end threshold for a Lake Wind Advisory and therefore, we won't be issuing any wind-related products for today.
(Today) Tranquil weather across the Tennessee Valley early this morning with high pressure to the west continuing to nose into the area. Strong subsidence will promote mostly clear and calm conditions today and with ample sunshine, expect temperatures to rise into the low to mid 90s in most locations (a couple degrees higher than yesterday). Additionally, this ridge should squash any afternoon convection and have kept PoPs less than 5%.
920 PM PDT Sat Aug 3 2024 Hot dry weather will prevail through Monday under high pressure aloft. The dominant upper level high pressure is now centered over western Utah and has expanded westward into SoCal as the easterly wave moved north over central CA. The upper level high will remain near the Four Corners region, with a roughly southwest to northeast ridge axis extending into SoCal. The expanding of the high pressure into SoCal also means that temperatures will be on the rise. High temperatures today will be around 4 to 7 degrees above normal, with moderate HeatRisk across most of the region, except for the higher elevation mountains and the coast. By Monday, high temps will be around 5 to 10 degrees above normal, reaching 100-108 in the inland valleys and high deserts and 112-116 in the low deserts.
(Today through Monday) An upper level ridge will remain centered over the intermountain west through the period, continuing to support dry mid-level flow across the region.
1208 AM CDT Sun Aug 4 2024 (This evening through Sunday) A stout upper level high centered over the Rockies continues its influence over the weather pattern in the western CONUS.
The rest of the day will be fairly quiet as the upper high currently over the Four Corners builds eastward and stretches to the middle Mississippi River Valley.
Sunday looks to be a couple of degrees warmer than today with subdued precip chances. (Rest of today through Sunday) The axis of an upper-level trough is currently over eastern TN with drier, northwest flow beginning to set up over Middle TN. So with this troughing and moisture present, storms will develop once again this afternoon, but will be more confined over the Plateau area. Coverage will gradually diminish after sunset, and the aforementioned trough will exit to the east. By Sunday, ridging begins to set up over our area as an upper- level high builds over the Rockies. Highs today will be a little cooler thanks to yesterday's cold front, but these temperatures will quickly rebound into low and mid-90s generally west of the Plateau Sunday.
The upper level trough departed east, loosing its influence over the local weather. Plenty of sunshine will allow afternoon temperatures to reach the lower 90s across the lowlands, ranging into the lower 70s across the northeast mountains. The story for the start of the new work week will be a return to hot temperatures under high pressure.
/Issued 110 AM CDT Sun Aug 4 2024/ /Through Monday Afternoon/ An ill-defined cold front is now stretched from southwest to northeast across Central Texas. A few 100 degree readings will be possible around the Graham/Breckenridge area, however, the triple digits will be the exception. Tonight will remain fairly tranquil with temperatures in the lower to mid 70s throughout the region.
Mid aftn temps ranged fm the mid 80s to the lower 90s, with corresponding heat indices primarily in the 90s. In a nutshell, the status quo be the highlight of the fcst heading into the start of the work week. Meanwhile, the upper ridge centered over the Four-Corners region, wl gradually expand to the east thru Mon.
Temperatures trend a little cooler in the wake of the cool front Sunday. The warmest temps in the low 70s will be over far northern Minnesota, along the Canadian border with middle 60s farther south.
245 AM EDT Sun Aug 4 2024 - Light rain showers and possibly a rumble of thunder or two are possible today with a cold front moving through.
The little trough within the larger ridge, will be enough to lower our temperatures a couple degrees for Sunday, but highs will still be in the mid 90s to around 102 degrees.
Drier SWly flow aloft in place over interior NorCal as it's sandwiched between upper troughing in the EPAC and the Desert SW upper high.
1245 AM CDT Sun Aug 4 2024 (This afternoon through Sunday night) Not much change is in for the short term, as the upper ridge continues to dominate. WV imagery shows said ridge centered just northeast of the Four Corners, resulting in meridional and even northeast flow aloft over West Texas and Southeast New Mexico this afternoon. Sunday could be the coolest day this forecast, as an inverted trough nudges under the ridge and moves in from the east, further reducing thicknesses.
900 PM PDT Sat Aug 3 2024 Hot dry weather will prevail through Monday under high pressure aloft. The dominant upper level high pressure is now centered over western Utah and has expanded westward into SoCal as the easterly wave moved north over central CA. The upper level high will remain near the Four Corners region, with a roughly southwest to northeast ridge axis extending into SoCal. The expanding of the high pressure into SoCal also means that temperatures will be on the rise. High temperatures today will be around 4 to 7 degrees above normal, with moderate HeatRisk across most of the region, except for the higher elevation mountains and the coast. By Monday, high temps will be around 5 to 10 degrees above normal, reaching 100-108 in the inland valleys and high deserts and 112-116 in the low deserts.
High pressure remains over the Pacific Northwest through the region. High pressure weakens as a trough moves through on Monday into mid-week.
1058 PM CDT Sat Aug 3 2024 (This evening through Sunday) A weak cold front has brought some relief from the humidity and heat risk today. As that trough/MCV continue southwestward toward the Big Bend region, tomorrow looks to be wholly dry and sunny across our area.
High pressure and dry conditions will be in place Sunday night into Monday. Weak high pressure will settle into the area during the day on Sunday before beginning to shift east Sunday night. Synoptically, at the start of the work week, a robust upper level trough will be centered just east of the Hudson Bay and continues to slowly work its way east. Meanwhile, an area of ridging over southwest CONUS expands northwest, retrograding slightly. Down near the surface, the boundary associated with the upper level trough remains stretched out across the northern Great lakes, while our CWA is mostly influenced by an area of weak high pressure. Tds will reach the low 70s Monday, with "feels- like" temps in the 90s area wide, with splotchy patches in the upper 90s around our metro areas. Overnight lows fall into the low 70s.
/NEW/ /Through Monday Afternoon/ An ill-defined cold front is now stretched from southwest to northeast across Central Texas. A few 100 degree readings will be possible around the Graham/Breckenridge area, however, the triple digits will be the exception. Tonight will remain fairly tranquil with temperatures in the lower to mid 70s throughout the region. /Issued 150 PM CDT Sat Aug 3 2024/ /Monday and Beyond/ An upper ridge will dominate the weather pattern through much of the work week as it becomes centered over the Plains by Monday.
It will also be noticeably cooler today with highs 10 to 20 below yesterday's readings.
Will have on- mentionable POPs in the north for the low chance decaying showers try to make into the area against stout EML/warm wedge aloft in place. Light and variable sfc wind field under lingering high pressure may allow for some patchy fog in higher pooled DPTs especially in the south. A hot day with heat indices in the mid to upper 90s if DPTs can remain in the lower 70s and convective debris clears off. If we stay relatively convective debris-free, this day could be close to heat advisory levels if sfc DPTs make it into the lower 70s and ambient temps in the low to mid 90s.
The highest winds should be expected with passing convective bands of moderate intensity or higher, and could be higher than explicitly forecast in TAFs at this time.
1106 PM CDT Sat Aug 3 2024 Surface analysis early this evening places a 1015 mb ridge of high pressure centered over Missouri.
Upper level ridging will dominate the central CONUS through the week keeping conditions dry.