Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1009 PM CDT Fri Oct 4 2024 A more humid air mass has spread W across the region this evening, indicative of the higher theta-e air especially across Deep E TX into much of NCntrl and NE LA/SE AR. The evening satellite imagery still continues to depict a narrow line of cu along the leading edge of this higher theta-e air as it spreads farther W.
329 AM EDT Sat Oct 5 2024 Above normal temperatures and mainly dry weather are expected through the weekend as high pressure dominates.
Main focus for the short term will be the strong wind gusts through this afternoon behind the overnight cold front, along with the fire weather concerns these winds bring. Cold front is currently pushing through the southeast portion of the forecast area. As the front has pushed through had an isolated gust to 65 mph at the Billings airport, but overall have been mainly in the 40 to 55 mph range for the lower elevations. Winds will likely diminish some around sunrise as the cooler post frontal air works to establish a surface inversion, but expect by late morning will see an increase again for at least a few hours to near warning criteria. Temperatures this afternoon will be in the 60s to near 70 degrees but will feel cooler given the gusty winds.
120 AM EDT Sat Oct 5 2024 A weak cold front passing today could initiate a few showers and isolated thunderstorms over the mountains and foothills. Drier and still warm conditions return over the weekend as high pressure builds back into the region.
1208 AM EDT Sat Oct 5 2024 Broad high pressure will remain across the region tonight.
This will bring a northerly shift to the surface winds, which will be followed by cooler and drier air into the early part of the extended term. Afternoon temperatures this weekend will remain quite warm, with highs topping out in the upper 80's to the lower 90's, with overnight lows ranging from the upper 50's to the mid 60's.
(This evening through Saturday night) H500 high pressure with broad ridging remains in place over much of the central CONUS this afternoon. The somewhat cooler air mass remains over the region for today which is leading to highs a bit cooler than the past few days. For tomorrow, low pressure develops over southeastern CO which tightens the surface pressure gradient over the Panhandles and will lead to breezy southwest winds during the daytime hours. The warmer low level temperatures along with the downsloping winds will increase highs to near or just above record levels tomorrow. Another weak cold front looks to begin to enter the northern Panhandles late Saturday night into early Sunday morning with some breezy winds out of the north in its wake.
Precip remains unlkly w/ this frnt, as mostly drier and cooler condns wl be the only changes asctd w/ this frnt.
Look for highs in the mid 80s east to the low 90s west. Sunday will see a cold front move through, bringing cooler temperatures over the north compared to Saturday. Highs will be in the low to mid 80s.
An upper trough centered over southern Canada extends southward over Montana and Wyoming. The upper trough will move over the northern and central Plains later today and will result in a cold front moving into the area. However, generally expect high temperatures today to range from the lower 80s across northwestern portions of the area to the mid 90s across southeastern areas. The upper trough will pass to the east of the area on Sunday with an upper ridge over the southwest part of the country. Temperatures on Sunday will be much cooler with highs mainly in the 70s.
(Saturday through Sunday) Much above normal temperatures will continue through this weekend as upper-level ridging remains anchored across the SW and SCntrl portions of the country. At the sfc, a weak trough is positioned from the Lower MS Valley back across parts of Louisiana and Texas. Warmer temperatures are also expected overnight with lows ranging through the 60s as cloud cover will largely dissipate through the evening hours. One more unseasonably hot day will follow on Sunday just ahead of an approaching cold front shifting southward through the Plains and Midwest.
Weak sfc trof extends from NW Ohio back into central Indiana and Illinois, but earlier convection dissipated near I-70 in Indiana and Illinois. Temps trend a degree or two warmer for tonight's min, but very close to persistence for Saturday highs. The only rain chance comes Sunday evening when an upper trof moving into the Great Lakes pushes the cold front SE into the Ohio Valley.
The subtropical ridge continues to be anchored over the Desert SW, centered over the AZ/NM state line. A weak cold front has pushed through for today. The "cooler" air will settle in for tomorrow lowering highs a few degrees. We warm back up to near record warmth for Sunday before another weak cold front comes through, knocking temperatures back down a few degrees though still well above normal. A trough will try and dig over the Pacific Coast at the same time. Highs warm for Sunday with a corresponding decrease in min RH values for Sunday, before another weak cold front brings temperatures back down a few degrees.
Otherwise, quiet/seasonably warm conditions are expected later today, as upper ridging over the southern Plains nudges to the east, while low level flow veers more to the east.
Can't even rule out a spot or two reaching the lower 30s by daybreak given conditions supportive of radiational cooling. Ridging and the lingering effects of high pressure will keep plenty of sunshine today, albeit with winds gusting to 20-25 mph as the pressure gradient tightens. Eyes then turn to tonight as a 500mb wave and associated vorticity maxima drives a cold front through the CWA. CAPE concentrated in the HGZ means isolated hail cannot be ruled out, though most shear is in the lowest km or so thanks to the strong LLJ meaning cloud layer shear is weak. Model RH progs do suggest at least some clouds across the northern half of the CWA associated with troughing and the associated instability.
The progressive trough will continue to slide eastward across the northwest into the Northern Plains tonight and tomorrow. High pressure parked over the Great Basin Sunday will keep us at near record high temperatures once again.
The coming week will be largely dominated by a high pressure ridge sitting across the western half of the CONUS. However, there isn't much forcing or dynamics to suggest this ridge will break down through the coming week. Temperatures prove to be resilient underneath this ridge with warm, near record temperatures dominating the forecast through much of the coming week with highs still 10 to 15 degrees above normal for early to mid October.
536 AM EDT Sat Oct 5 2024 Low pressure will cross the area today then exit into the Maritimes tonight. High pressure will cross the region Sunday.
636 AM CDT Sat Oct 5 2024 (Today through Sunday Night) NHC is continuing to monitor the broad elongated coastal trough over the southern Gulf. The forecast for Sun will feature more sun, light NE winds, a little bit less humidity, no POPs and warmer temperatures. For tomorrow, highs are expected to be in the lower to mid 90s. Lows tonight will run from the upper 60s for the northern counties to the lower to mid 70s elsewhere. for tomorrow night, locations in/around H-Town proper and the coast will see lows in the lower 70s with much of the rest of the CWA falling into the mid and upper 60.
531 AM CDT Sat Oct 5 2024 (Today through Sunday afternoon) WV imagery this morning still shows the upper ridge dominating the southern CONUS, w/an inverted trough that covered Texas yesterday now fading south into oblivion. Sunday, the ridge begins building in from the west, adding a couple of degrees onto this afternoon's highs.
(Today through Sunday Night) NHC is continuing to monitor the broad elongated coastal trough over the southern Gulf. The forecast for Sun will feature more sun, light NE winds, a little bit less humidity, no POPs and warmer temperatures. For tomorrow, highs are expected to be in the lower to mid 90s. Lows tonight will run from the upper 60s for the northern counties to the lower to mid 70s elsewhere. for tomorrow night, locations in/around H-Town proper and the coast will see lows in the lower 70s with much of the rest of the CWA falling into the mid and upper 60.
Another hot day is in store for interior NorCal today as upper level ridging will dominate the synoptic pattern for the next few days. With the ridge replacement in the Four Corners region, the Delta Breeze will be limited in regards to relief from unseasonably hot temperatures. The NBM suggests around 60-90% chances of breaking 100 in the aforementioned areas, with the higher probabilities residing in the Delta and Foothills.
A dirty ridge over the region will allow for some afternoon and evening clouds to build in today across mainly central NV, then across all of central and much of northern NV Sunday.
1000-500 mb thicknesses increase more than they were yesterday as slight ridging moves into the area from the Central Plains. As a result, it pains me to say that temperatures will be slightly warmer than yesterday, with most areas seeing the upper 80s to low 90s, nearly 10 degrees above daily average high temperatures.
A cold front is currently moving slower than guidance suggests over Montana and the Dakotas as of 4 AM MDT. Sunday will be a bit cooler thanks to CAA behind the front as the ridge builds back over the area both aloft and near the surface. Looks to be about a 20% chance for briefly critical conditions as there is concern that the ~25 mph gusts will not coincide with the lower RH values tomorrow afternoon. Overnight lows will be in the low to mid 40s.
651 AM CDT Sat Oct 5 2024 (Saturday through Sunday) Much above normal temperatures will continue through this weekend as upper-level ridging remains anchored across the SW and SCntrl portions of the country. At the sfc, a weak trough is positioned from the Lower MS Valley back across parts of Louisiana and Texas. Warmer temperatures are also expected overnight with lows ranging through the 60s as cloud cover will largely dissipate through the evening hours. One more unseasonably hot day will follow on Sunday just ahead of an approaching cold front shifting southward through the Plains and Midwest.
A passing weather disturbance and cold front will produce windy conditions, with High Wind Warnings in effect through this afternoon for wind prone locations of southeast Wyoming. With 700 mb temperatures only near 8 Celsius, maximum temperatures will be cooler for most locations north of a Rawlins to Scottsbluff line. Continued dry with lack of moisture in the low and mid levels of the atmosphere.
530 AM MDT Sat Oct 5 2024 Aviation Section Updated Today due to the cold front that moved through temperatures will be at about seasonal averages with breezy conditions. An upper-level ridge moves over North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana on Sunday. As a result the High Wind Warnings for the area have been cancelled. As a result of the cold front that passed through yesterday evening through early this morning and an associated upper-level trough temperatures will be at about seasonal averages today across North- central, Central, and Southwestern Montana. On Sunday an upper-level ridge moves over North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana.
These low clouds and fog are anticipated to clear out later today as we jump into warmer than normal fall day. The upper level ridge will begin to break down a bit on Sunday with a short wave well offshore pushing eastwards.
Patchy fog and low clouds are developing in portions of western Washington this morning as high pressure builds back into the region.
715 AM EDT Sat Oct 5 2024 Low pressure will cross the area today then exit into the Maritimes tonight. High pressure will cross the region Sunday.
Temperatures increase today in the interior as high pressure builds back in. A weak area of high pressure has built back in, bringing yet another warm day to the interior.
As the cold front continues to move eastward out of Idaho today, it will slowly take the gusty winds with it. The cold front is bringing some cooler air to us today, which means highs will be about 10 to 15 degrees cooler than yesterday, leaving most of us in the 60s to low 70s. This is closer to average for this time of the year, but it only lasts for today before we begin to warm again on Sunday as high pressure builds in over the area once more. There is about a 30 to 50 percent chance for parts of the Arco Desert and the upper Snake Plain to see lows fall to 36 degrees or cooler, so debated about issuing a Frost Advisory for those two zones.
- Showers and storms are expected to develop along a cold front this evening.
High pressure remains the dominate feature over the West Coast as the heat-wave over California continues. High-Res short range ensemble analysis has the Pacific Northwest disturbance exiting the region today as the area of high pressure rebounds back over the West. As stated, with high pressure dominating the region, will see similar numbers on Sunday.
642 AM EDT Sat Oct 5 2024 Above normal temperatures and mainly dry weather are expected through the weekend as high pressure dominates.
High pressure will continue to remain in control of northern and central Nevada's weather for Sunday and Sunday night.
Dew points currently in the 50s to lower 60s, though some mixing of drier air will bring these values down enough to yield RH around 25% within a similar corridor of highest winds, as temps warm into the lower 90s.
A strong short wave trough moving across the Great Lakes will send a weak cold front to the area on Sunday after daybreak. Temperatures will generally be a few degrees cooler but still well above seasonal averages for early October.
(This afternoon through Sunday night) A short wave trough transiting the prairie provinces this afternoon will send a weak cold front down into the Permian Basin after sunup Sunday.
246 PM EDT Sat Oct 5 2024 Warm and dry conditions will continue through the rest of the weekend under the influence of high pressure over the Northeast states.
405 PM EDT Sat Oct 5 2024 - A passing cold front brings a chance of showers and thunderstorms to mainly eastern parts of the area on Sunday evening and Sunday night.
(This evening through Sunday night) High pressure exists over the area today, once again, thanks to lingering ridge aloft. A temporary break in the upper level pattern is forecast to unfold tonight as a cold front enters through the combined Panhandles.
Bowling ball upper low will move from Lake Winnipeg to near James Bay by Sunday evening, pushing a cold front into the Ohio Valley. Temps overnight and Sunday will run 2-3 degrees warmer than today given low-level thickness progs and the pre-frontal SW flow environment. Sunday night, a wide upper ridge, centered over the Rockies, will extend east to the Ohio Valley. At the surface, high pressure over the Plains will get pushed by the upper ridge southeast into the Midwest. This high pressure will begin building over southern Indiana and central Kentucky as it follows the cold front through the CWA.
131 PM EDT Sat Oct 5 2024 (Rest of Today through Sunday) Issued at 1:21 PM EDT Sat Oct 5 2024 Easterly flow continues tonight as high pressure remains centered in the northeast US and northeast.
1239 PM CDT Sat Oct 5 2024 (Today through Sunday Night) NHC is continuing to monitor the broad elongated coastal trough over the southern Gulf. The forecast for Sun will feature more sun, light NE winds, a little bit less humidity, no POPs and warmer temperatures. For tomorrow, highs are expected to be in the lower to mid 90s. Lows tonight will run from the upper 60s for the northern counties to the lower to mid 70s elsewhere. for tomorrow night, locations in/around H-Town proper and the coast will see lows in the lower 70s with much of the rest of the CWA falling into the mid and upper 60.
317 PM EDT Sat Oct 5 2024 A weak cold front will move southeast across central and southern NC this afternoon and evening.
Temperatures today are once again rather summerlike, and tomorrow will likely be a degree or two warmer, putting us close to daily record values. (Sunday Night through next Saturday) A dry cold front is poised to sweep across Middle Tennessee Sunday night.
- A weak cold front Sunday night will mark the return of slightly cooler weather, but temperatures will still remain near to above normal. /Issued 1255 PM CDT Sat Oct 5 2024/ /Through Sunday Afternoon/ High pressure is now in control across North and Central Texas, keeping winds light and out of the southeast. Tomorrow, temperatures will be a bit warmer compared to today with widespread 90s throughout the region. A cold front will be advancing southward; however, its arrival will be after sunset. /NEW/ /Sunday Night Onward/ This upcoming work week will feature the continuance of mostly above-normal temperatures and dry conditions as upper level ridging dominates the western 2/3rds of the CONUS.
Upper level high pressure dominating the Rocky Mountain Region will result in continued unseasonably warm temperatures and very dry weather across North Central and Northeastern Colorado over the next several days.
Updated at 253 PM CDT Sat Oct 5 2024 - Cold front comes through late tonight with cooler yet above normal temperatures Sunday to normal cool night temperatures. An upper wave trough digging across the U. Northern Plains & Upper Midwest Regions will be pushing another dry cold front across the Central Plains this evening and into northern Oklahoma early Sunday morning. A Pacific air mass with drier but only temperate cooler air will lag a bit behind Sunday's cold front. Expecting southern Oklahoma and western north Texas to remain pre-frontal at least early in the afternoon so expecting a persistent forecast there with highs again in the lower 90s.
237 PM EDT Sat Oct 5 2024 A weak cold front will move southeast across central and southern NC this afternoon and evening.
- Cold front tonight will bring cooler air to the area for Sunday. Red Flag conditions will diminish this by this evening, as a cold front arrives from the north. Upper level high pressure will build back across the region on Sunday. Cooler air behind tonight's cold front will lead to afternoon highs on Sunday in the upper 60s to mid 70s across the Plains.
UL ridge anchored over the Desert SW will remain quasi-stationary throughout the entire period, centered near the AZ-NM state line. A weak cold front will swing through the CWA tomorrow, which will reduce our highs a few degrees after a near-record day on Sunday.
A weak frontal boundary extends into our area with high pressure to our northeast. Sunday Heading into Sunday, the aforementioned northern system will continue progressing eastward with its associated cold front advancing towards the Ohio River Valley. High pressure will still remain in control during the day with a more southerly shift in winds by the afternoon. Temperatures will be cooler than recent days with overnight lows in the 40s each night, possibly lower in some mountain locations.
An unseasonably warm Autumn day continues, with temps at 1pm clocking in in the low to mid 80s. Dew points, which mixing has maintained in the upper 50s to around 60 so far today, should creep up a bit ahead of an approaching cold front tonight when the HRRR brings them into the 61-64 degree range in many locations along and east of the IL River. This will be short-lived, however, with a dramatic plunge behind the cold front which should reach the IL River around 2am and clear the CWA by noon tomorrow. Behind that front tomorrow afternoon, CAA will enhance mixing to yield both northwest wind gusts around 20-25+ mph (highest north) and dewpoints in the low 30s (which will result in RH values dipping to around 20% for several hours).
(Tonight) A stalled upr trough lies to our south as evidenced by a SWRLY stream of clouds hugging portions of the northern Gulf and across the FL peninsula through southern Georgia and the southern Carolinas. Closer to home, we are largely under the influence of a broad area of high pressure, centered over the eastern Great Lakes region into SE Canada. The cooler and drier portions of the bulk of this air mass did not quite make it into our area as evidence by the high dew points/humidity and patchy low clouds today. Temperatures appear set to reach around 90 degrees again today in the normally warmer locations.
- Northwest winds of 30 to 50 mph will be on a slow but steady decline through the late afternoon/evening, although eastern portions of the CWA will see a bump in speeds again late tonight with a secondary cold front passage.
- Cooler temperatures (highs in the 70s) are expected on Sunday. A cold front continues to progress southward through the area this afternoon. Sun-Sun night: A cooler airmass. will foster much cooler (albeit near- average) temperatures. Upper ridge over the Four Corners to start the period will expand north and eastward through the end of the week.
1215 PM CDT Sat Oct 5 2024 (Today through Sunday afternoon) WV imagery this morning still shows the upper ridge dominating the southern CONUS, w/an inverted trough that covered Texas yesterday now fading south into oblivion. Sunday, the ridge begins building in from the west, adding a couple of degrees onto this afternoon's highs.
1007 AM MDT Sat Oct 5 2024 Area lies beneath a NW flow aloft in the wake of the strong upper level wave and surface cold front that moved through the region overnight. Hoenisch Today due to the cold front that moved through temperatures will be at about seasonal averages with breezy conditions. An upper-level ridge moves over North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana on Sunday. As a result the High Wind Warnings for the area have been cancelled. As a result of the cold front that passed through yesterday evening through early this morning and an associated upper-level trough temperatures will be at about seasonal averages today across North- central, Central, and Southwestern Montana. On Sunday an upper-level ridge moves over North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana.
(This afternoon through Sunday) Central Alabama is sandwiched between low to mid-level ridging centered over the Midsouth and inverted troughing over the Gulf of Mexico.
Weak sfc ridging across our region will basically washout tonight into Sunday. With sfc ridging washing out overnight, sfc winds will be more from the northeast across our region on Sunday. Dewpoints will still remain rather elevated however ahead of our next cold front that will begin moving into our northern most zones Sunday Evening. Longwave trough moving quickly across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley will have a strong cold front associated with it that will extend southward into the Southern Plains.
145 PM EDT Sat Oct 5 2024 Low pressure will cross the area today then exit into the Canadian Maritimes tonight. High pressure will return Sunday.
Highs this afternoon will generally be in the low to mid 90s with a few locations in the Hill Country or southern Edwards Plateau in the upper 80s. Similar afternoon highs are expected tomorrow with a few locations possibly a degree or two warmer. Lows each night range from the low to mid 60s in the Hill Country and southern Edwards Plateau to the mid 60s to low 70s elsewhere.
- Cooler with lighter winds tomorrow, but still a little gusty in eastern parts of the area. The cold front continues to push southeastward across the area, turning winds to the northwest and north. Sunday will be noticably cooler than today, with high temperatures near our climatological normals in the 70s. closer to the low end of the NBM distribution that is closer to MOS guidance.
327 PM CDT Sat Oct 5 2024 - Gusty winds continue ahead of cold front, which will bring a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms this evening into tonight. - Breezy and cooler Sunday. Issued 327 PM CDT Sat Oct 5 2024 Tonight and Sunday: Gusty south winds continue ahead of the approaching cold front, with widespread gusts upwards of 30 mph already reported.
131 PM EDT Sat Oct 5 2024 High pressure builds into the area today, and moves offshore Sunday.