Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A band of isolated showers is currently developing over east-central MN early this afternoon ahead of cold front. The current activity is expected to increase in coverage and move east, preceding the southeastward moving cold front, through this afternoon and into this evening. Meanwhile, behind the cold front northwesterly winds are gusting to 20 to even 30 knots within the CAA.
High pressure will push temperatures back to well above average for the coming week. A cooler morning to start the day for Southeast Arizona. A low pressure center located over Colorado will continue to move downstream and high pressure will start to build over the region starting today. Ensemble models are in lock step agreement of the high pressure building over the region for most of the work week. Another note, the ECMWF Extreme Forecast Index has 70% of members and a shift of tails for warmer than normal temperatures. A decent signal for warmer than normal temperatures across the region.
(Today through Monday) 500 mb high pressure centered along the Upper Texas Coast will produce dry weather for the BRO CWFA today through tonight. On Monday, the mid-level ridge will shift more towards the east with a weak 500 mb trough easing into the Lone Star State. Combined with daytime heating and a slight increase in precipitable water, the result will be isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms over the five easternmost counties and the lower Texas coastal waters.
- Cloudy and much cooler with a few showers in the afternoon.
High pressure situated north of the area will continue to produce a low level NE flow across the area.
Mostly cloudy, but rain- free weather returns for Sunday, before a slow-moving trough brings the next chance of rain from Monday through midweek.
(Today through Monday) Upper-air features relevant to our forecast include a trough extending from the central Plains to the Desert Southwest, and ridge centered near the TX/LA Gulf Coast. Anticylonic flow associated with the ridge should continue to suppress diurnal convection across our area this afternoon. Temperatures will once again top out in the lower 90s for most locations. Signs of a pattern change are evident for Monday as the trough and ridge shift eastward. As the ridge relents, isolated convection appears possible just north of our counties that border WFO Huntsville.
(Today and tonight) A cold front will push through the forecast area today, bringing widespread showers and storms along with it. HREF guidance suggest southwest Oklahoma and western north Texas will see the highest QPF totals, with 3-hr 1 inch exceedance probabilities in the 50-70% range. Much cooler temperatures will fill in the wake of the cold front, yielding a tight temperature gradient with highs in the 60s in northwest Oklahoma to the lower 90s in south central Oklahoma today.
(Today and tonight) Another beautiful day on tap for the region as high pressure remains at the surface and a mid-level ridge axis overhead. Highs today are generally forecast in the low to mid 90s with lows tonight in the upper 60s to low 70s.
The area remains in a region of limited upper level flow so today will be nearly a carbon copy of the weather we saw yesterday, maybe a degree or two warmer.
(Today and tonight) The much anticipated cold front was making steady progress south as of 2 AM along a line from Clovis to Dimmitt to Pampa. The bigger picture depicts an upper low over CO with an attendant trough axis shearing out over the South Plains in SW flow, so deep layer forcing will be hard to come by today. Nevertheless, the cold front will do its best to garner scattered to numerous showers and storms this morning. Otherwise, considerably drier northerly winds will gradually take their toll on the stratus layer resulting in clearing skies across our NW zones where the chilliest lows in the lower 40s are forecast.
(Sunday through Monday) Upper-level ridging will remain in place off the Gulf Coast, but continue to flatten out over the course of the short-term. The flattening and retrograding of this ridge will coincide with a deep trough and cold front pushing through the Plains. This cold front will eventually begin to work into the region by tonight, resulting in increased shower and thunderstorm chances north of I-30. Temperatures will continue to run above average this short-term, with highs ranging in the low to mid-90s.
321 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 - Much cooler today with lingering showers/storms through tonight. Activity will likely becoming less widespread/numerous this afternoon and evening, as the upper trough shears out and associated lift decreases.
Dry conditions return briefly today, with temperatures in the low to high 70s.
Showers will be focused mainly over the coastal Atlantic waters along a coastal trough but, like yesterday, a few showers may advect into portions of the Flagler county coast. Slight bump in temperatures today amid the drier airmass and ridging aloft.
The upper low that caused the storms is now in the central Rockies and will move into the Plains later today sending a cold front south. This confines the highest rain chances south of I-20, mainly from Big Lake to Alpine. A few storms could become severe but the threat is lower than we saw yesterday due to increasing stability from the departing upper low.
- Much cooler today and Monday, near normal temperatures for the mid to late week and mainly dry. Upper low over western Colorado spilling showers and some thunderstorms across mainly southern and eastern portions of Kansas overnight. Showers and a few thunderstorms will continue in mainly southern areas early today but a few could linger across east-central Kansas tonight into early Monday until the trough axis exits. The effective cold front should be well south of the area by midday and shift any severe concern out.
1148 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024 Unseasonably warm temperatures are forecast across the Midsouth on Sunday, as a strong upper level ridge prevails over the lower Mississippi River Valley. This ridge will weaken on Monday, suppressed by an upper level low pressure system extending from the central plains into the mid-Mississippi River Valley. Showers and thunderstorms will develop along an accompanying cold front as it enters the Midsouth Monday afternoon and evening.
Discussion: We will remain under the influence of the upper ridge over the region, providing another unseasonably hot day with temperatures around 10 degrees above seasonal normals. Some weak short wave energy will be rounding the edge of the ridge, and a few locations may see a shower today or tonight.
1222 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 - Much cooler for Sunday and Monday with highs in the mid 60s to lower 70s, which is slightly below normal.
327 AM MDT Sun Sep 22 2024 - Near freezing temperatures are possible in some low-lying and wind sheltered areas through early this morning and again Sunday night.
615 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 (Today through Monday) 500 mb high pressure centered along the Upper Texas Coast will produce dry weather for the BRO CWFA today through tonight. On Monday, the mid-level ridge will shift more towards the east with a weak 500 mb trough easing into the Lone Star State. Combined with daytime heating and a slight increase in precipitable water, the result will be isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms over the five easternmost counties and the lower Texas coastal waters.
Temperatures will continue to warm this afternoon, with highs in the low 90s inland across the North Bay, East Bay and higher elevations above the marine layer extending south into Monterey County and San Benito County.
Thus far, we have seen several readings across the west in the lower 30s. Western and central North Dakota sits under the influence of northwest flow aloft and high pressure at the surface. The expectation is that we will continue to get a bit colder through the morning hours, with several stations likely to dip into the lower 30s across the west. Today's highs will be just a touch warmer than yesterday with relatively light winds. Highs will be in the lower 60s to the lower 70s (warmest southwest and south central) under plenty of sunshine. Highs will be another touch warmer on Monday even though we will likely have fairly widespread cloud cover (mid 60s to mid 70s).
436 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 Today and Tonight: Both high pressure aloft and at the surface will remain wedged into the Lower Mississippi River Valley as we round out the weekend.
614 AM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024 (Today and tonight) Another beautiful day on tap for the region as high pressure remains at the surface and a mid-level ridge axis overhead. Highs today are generally forecast in the low to mid 90s with lows tonight in the upper 60s to low 70s.
651 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 (Today through Monday) Upper-air features relevant to our forecast include a trough extending from the central Plains to the Desert Southwest, and ridge centered near the TX/LA Gulf Coast. Anticylonic flow associated with the ridge should continue to suppress diurnal convection across our area this afternoon. Temperatures will once again top out in the lower 90s for most locations. Signs of a pattern change are evident for Monday as the trough and ridge shift eastward. As the ridge relents, isolated convection appears possible just north of our counties that border WFO Huntsville.
534 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 - The cold front is moving through our area this morning. - Low confidence is in the forecast regarding late this week into the weekend as an upper low interacts with the tropics in a blocking pattern. The cold front at 2 AM, is moving into our north counties this morning, with dew points in the 50s just north of Highway 20. This dry air will allow us to see colder temperatures where rain is falling behind the cold front this morning, as wet bulb temperatures crash into the low 60s/upper 50s. The rain will be widespread in the south 1/3-1/2 of the CWA this morning, with scattered showers and weak thunderstorms along the cold front in the north.
Currently, an upper level low is located over CO, with southwest flow over west central Texas. This low is expected to open into a wave while slowly moving east into the central and southern plains by Monday morning. At the surface, a cold front is expected to move south into our CWA by this afternoon, making its way through the rest of the area by late tonight. Scattered to widespread thunderstorms are expected to develop along and ahead of the cold front this afternoon, and continue through most of the overnight hours.
612 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 (Today through Monday) Water vapor imagery this morning reveals a fairly active pattern as the upper level ridge that has been in place is being nudged east by a digging trough across the Four Corners region. At the surface, a cold front can be analyzed across the northern portions of the state. High temps today and tomorrow will settle into the low to mid 90s along with heat indices around 100-105 degrees.
72" of precipitable water, but it looks like most of this moisture is confined to the lower levels (from the surface up to approximately 800 mb). Boaters can expect less clearance under fixed bridges, especially during the hours around high tide.
With 850 mb temperatures running 8-10 degrees C over our area, it will be a cooler day with highs in the upper 60s to around 70. While there is no strong model guidance indicating fog tonight, with the nearly calm in winds in a southeasterly flow, cannot completely rule out patchy shallow fog in some of the lower lying areas - though confidence is low for this scenario. In response, we are looking for lows in the lower to mid 40s - perhaps into the upper 30s through east central SD where ensembles show a 60% probability of temperatures less than 40 degrees. With warm air advection, highs will climb a bit - into the lower to mid 70s.
(Today through Monday) Mid level high pressure continues across the far SE TX coast. With the high in that position, N/NW flow aloft will persist across much of GA through the period. At the surface, high pressure at the surface will also persist through the short term. Models do show a weakness in the ridging at the surface, almost like a very weak lee trough.
Lows here will dip into the low to mid 30s. Thus far, we have seen several readings across the west in the lower 30s. Western and central North Dakota sits under the influence of northwest flow aloft and high pressure at the surface. The expectation is that we will continue to get a bit colder through the morning hours, with several stations likely to dip into the lower 30s across the west. Today's highs will be just a touch warmer than yesterday with relatively light winds. Highs will be in the lower 60s to the lower 70s (warmest southwest and south central) under plenty of sunshine. Highs will be another touch warmer on Monday even though we will likely have fairly widespread cloud cover (mid 60s to mid 70s).
610 AM MDT Sun Sep 22 2024 - Near freezing temperatures are possible in some low-lying and wind sheltered areas through early this morning and again Sunday night.
Mainly dry and hot conditions will continue today as an upper level high pressure system remains overhead.
Mid-level ridging along the Texas coast will continue to advance across the GoMex and FL peninsula over the next 24 hours providing subsidence aloft across the region. Weak surface ridging exists to the north.
- Most of southern WI will see some beneficial rainfall from the cold front passage with amounts generally ranging from 0. - Cooler/near normal temps are expected behind the cold front today through the start of the week with daily highs in the upper 60s and lower 70s. Issued 415 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 Today through Monday night: Showers and thunderstorms continue across southern Wisconsin this morning ahead of and along an approaching cold front. The cold front is currently running southwest to northeast from La Crosse, to Marathon to Vilas County.
920 AM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024 High pressure will build from Eastern Canada through Sunday night while low pressure in the open Atlantic drifts further out to sea.
526 AM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024 Weak high pressure builds over central Pennsylvania today.
621 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 (Sunday through Monday) Upper-level ridging will remain in place off the Gulf Coast, but continue to flatten out over the course of the short-term. The flattening and retrograding of this ridge will coincide with a deep trough and cold front pushing through the Plains. This cold front will eventually begin to work into the region by tonight, resulting in increased shower and thunderstorm chances north of I-30. Temperatures will continue to run above average this short-term, with highs ranging in the low to mid-90s.
- Much cooler today with lingering showers/storms through tonight. Activity will likely becoming less widespread/numerous this afternoon and evening, as the upper trough shears out and associated lift decreases.
A cooler continental airmass migrates near the Canadian Border filtering in cooler dry air as the Northern Plains sits in northwest flow. While some of the cooler dry air will filter over the Northern Plains, 850mb temperatures look to remain near 9 degrees celsius at the coldest over the Northern Plains. Surface Dewpoints look to drop into the low 40's/upper 30's for the majority of the forecast area. To add to the uncertainty most of the models dont have us reaching the 36 degree threshold most likely due to the warmer 850/925 temps and encroaching cloud cover.
632 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 Today and Tonight: Both high pressure aloft and at the surface will remain wedged into the Lower Mississippi River Valley as we round out the weekend.
Temperatures are generally in the low to middle 50s with light and variable winds. A cooler continental airmass migrates near the Canadian Border filtering in cooler dry air as the Northern Plains sits in northwest flow. While some of the cooler dry air will filter over the Northern Plains, 850mb temperatures look to remain near 9 degrees celsius at the coldest over the Northern Plains. Surface Dewpoints look to drop into the low 40's/upper 30's for the majority of the forecast area. To add to the uncertainty most of the models dont have us reaching the 36 degree threshold most likely due to the warmer 850/925 temps and encroaching cloud cover.
A weak, dry cold front will graze the area Monday, with high pressure building thereafter.
227 AM MST Sun Sep 22 2024 Temperatures will steadily warm over the next few days reaching into an above normal category as strong high pressure builds over the region. The taste of fall weather looks to be short-lived as the last of the low pressure systems that brought the cooler weather is quickly moving northeastward away from the region. Upper level troughing will still stick around for today, but heights aloft will quickly rise, as well as temperatures.
638 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 - Cooler and breezy with widespread (50-75%) showers for the first day of Fall.
- Warmer and drier this upcoming week with no significant precipitation chances. Scattered showers will continue for these areas until early afternoon as the upper level trough pushes northeast.
630 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 (Today and tonight) The much anticipated cold front was making steady progress south as of 2 AM along a line from Clovis to Dimmitt to Pampa. The bigger picture depicts an upper low over CO with an attendant trough axis shearing out over the South Plains in SW flow, so deep layer forcing will be hard to come by today. Nevertheless, the cold front will do its best to garner scattered to numerous showers and storms this morning. Otherwise, considerably drier northerly winds will gradually take their toll on the stratus layer resulting in clearing skies across our NW zones where the chilliest lows in the lower 40s are forecast.
626 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 Mainly dry and hot conditions will continue today as an upper level high pressure system remains overhead.
Temperatures will steadily warm over the next few days reaching into an above normal category as strong high pressure builds over the region. The taste of fall weather looks to be short-lived as the last of the low pressure systems that brought the cooler weather is quickly moving northeastward away from the region. Upper level troughing will still stick around for today, but heights aloft will quickly rise, as well as temperatures.
714 AM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024 Weak high pressure builds over central Pennsylvania today.
High temperatures today will reach the mid to upper 70s for coastal areas, the 80s to low 90s for the valleys, 70s to low 80s for the mountains, low 90s for the High Desert, and 100 to 105 degrees for the low desert. Additional warming is expected into Monday, with most places 3 to 5 degrees warmer than today.
1144 AM MDT Sun Sep 22 2024 - Near freezing temperatures are possible in some low-lying and wind sheltered areas through early this morning and again Sunday night.
Warm and dry pattern continues for interior NorCal the next several days as high pressure builds in from the eastern Pacific.
232 PM MDT Sun Sep 22 2024 - Slow clearing overnight, then low chance of some patchy frost over high mountain valleys early Monday morning, - Much warmer Monday with isolated showers/thunderstorms over the higher terrain. Currently, upper low easing into swrn Nebraska this afternoon, with extensive wrap-around cloud shield covering much of southern Colorado. Given enough uncertainty in clearing trends and also very wet ground/moist low level air mass over the San Luis Valley, will hold off on any frost/freeze highlight for now, as any near freezing temps look brief and limited in coverage to areas along/near the Rio Grande. Monday, upper low pulls away with brisk nw flow aloft developing across the state by late day.
Instead of one, steady cloud line forming, visible satellite shows multiple streamers extending off of the Lower Keys. Similar to yesterday, there is still moisture confined to the lower levels of the atmosphere, but comparably drier air in the middle and upper levels.
An approaching cold front will bring scattered showers and thunderstorms to the Midsouth on Monday.
1216 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 (Today through Monday) Upper-air features relevant to our forecast include a trough extending from the central Plains to the Desert Southwest, and ridge centered near the TX/LA Gulf Coast. Anticylonic flow associated with the ridge should continue to suppress diurnal convection across our area this afternoon. Temperatures will once again top out in the lower 90s for most locations. Signs of a pattern change are evident for Monday as the trough and ridge shift eastward. As the ridge relents, isolated convection appears possible just north of our counties that border WFO Huntsville.
(Through Monday) Ridging aloft and at the surface will keep things pretty status-quo through Monday afternoon. Daytime highs climb into the lower to middle 90s Monday afternoon.
Warmer than normal temperatures associated with upper ridging will be the main story.
Current temperatures are in the mid to upper 70s, with highs on target to warm into the lower to mid 90s this afternoon.
- Cooler weather is expected today and Monday with highs only in the 60s to low 70s. - Low confidence is in the forecast regarding late this week into the weekend as an upper low interacts with the tropics in a blocking pattern. The cold front at 2 AM, is moving into our north counties this morning, with dew points in the 50s just north of Highway 20. This dry air will allow us to see colder temperatures where rain is falling behind the cold front this morning, as wet bulb temperatures crash into the low 60s/upper 50s. The rain will be widespread in the south 1/3-1/2 of the CWA this morning, with scattered showers and weak thunderstorms along the cold front in the north.
305 PM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024 High pressure will build from Eastern Canada through Sunday night while low pressure in the open Atlantic drifts further out to sea.
A strong front and area of low pressure over the Great Lakes and Upper Midwest will approach the area during the early to middle part of the week. High pressure will follow mid to late week. Latest satellite imagery shows abundant cloudcover across the region thanks to easterly flow and a backdoor cold front draped across the region. Some improvement in clouds diminishing is expected west of the Blue Ridge, with areas to the east in large remaining socked in the clouds with the easterly flow. As another trough and area of low pressure/frontal system begin to approach from the OH Valley/Great Lakes by Monday afternoon, expect increasing rain chances from west to east.
1230 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 - Much cooler today with lingering showers/storms through tonight. Activity will likely becoming less widespread/numerous this afternoon and evening, as the upper trough shears out and associated lift decreases.
147 PM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024 High pressure building over the SE US will keep warm conditions over the Southeast into the first half of the work week. Confidence is low in the forecast beyond midweek as uncertainty remains high with the evolution of an upper trough moving toward the region and the potential for tropical development in the Gulf. Key Message(s): - Upper ridge persists with above normal temperatures. This afternoon: Hot temperatures persist underneath the upper ridge axis, with highs still on track to reach the low to middle 90s. Key Message(s): - Upper ridge continues to bring above average temps. Meanwhile, an upper trough is forecast to continue developing over the Upper Midwest. Also, the upper trough is anticipated to dig southward and assist in developing a surface frontal boundary, resulting in southwest flow locally.
238 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 Tonight through Monday night: Continued warmer than normal through the period as ridging surface and aloft remains dominant but, rain chances return to the northwest Monday evening. Mid afternoon surface analysis had a 1015mb high centered over our CWA with a cold front across the central Plains. Dry weather is expected to continue through Monday but by Monday evening the cold front will bring low chances of light rain across our northwest most zones.