Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
This movement will be the result of a second cut-off low, currently positioned over the SW US, pivoting across the Texas Panhandle and into the Southern Plains. As this process unfolds tonight, clouds will gradually lift and break, perhaps clearing out completely as a ridge of high pressure slowly spreads over the region. From Tuesday onward, relatively fair weather will remain locked in place beneath an emerging blocking pattern. The blocking pattern will also shunt any recycled Pacific moisture mostly north of our area.
(Rest of today through Tuesday) The upper low continues to be stuck in Kentucky longer than expected. Ideally, the low will lift to the north this afternoon/evening, with rain chances exiting with it.
Closed upper low will continue spinning over the desert SW tonight with a leading S/W progged to cross central and north Texas overnight.
Currently a cold front is across the state southwest to northeast. The lower levels are also dry so this aids in the downward momentum.
Breezy south winds continue to bring warmer temperatures into the area this afternoon. Highs across the region range from the low to middle 80s. Sustained southerly winds will continue through this evening ahead of an approaching cold front, which will bring an abrupt wind shift to the north. Look for additional gusty winds following the frontal passage, along with much cooler temperatures.
334 PM CDT Mon May 5 2025 - Pleasant conditions with highs in the low to mid 70s today and tomorrow.
906 AM PDT Mon May 5 2025 A upper level ridge will produce dry and warmer conditions across Western Washington through Tuesday. A weak frontal system will arrive midweek with cooler temperatures and a chance of showers. Somewhat warmer and generally dry conditions return late week before another front approaches the region over the weekend.
A low pressure system to the northeast will continues to track away from the state as another system tracks from the Southern Plains.
254 PM EDT Mon May 5 2025 A cold front will slowly progress eastward across the region through Tuesday, then pull offshore Tuesday night.
156 PM PDT Mon May 5 2025 Showers and thunderstorms across the mountains and deserts will come to an end this evening, with drier and warmer conditions prevailing for the remainder of the week.
203 PM EDT Mon May 5 2025 A cold front continues to slowly move off the coast tonight into tomorrow and is expected to stall offshore. Key Message(s): - Seasonable temperatures and dry weather expected today Upper low situated over KY/TN remains in place today with dry southwesterly flow aloft over the forecast area.
Discussion: The upper level low centered to our northwest over KY will move northeast during the period, allowing heights to rise over our area as short wave ridging to our west draws closer. Drying will work in as the upper low retreats and any lingering showers mainly north and east early tonight will diminish, and while an isolated shower cannot be ruled out across southwest Virginia on Tuesday, nearly all of our area will be precipitation free during the day.
40", so the conclusion we are drawing from this is that most of this moisture is confined to the lower levels. The good news is that the synoptic (larger scale) pattern is unfavorable for sustained shower/thunderstorm development, but all of this untapped moisture in the lower levels could, in theory, support shower activity on the mesoscale (smaller scale) so we will continue to advertise the 20 percent PoPs for today. From synopsis, an Atlantic ridge will push a bit further west as it lifts north into the Florida Peninsula over the next couple of days. After mid week, the pressure pattern will be sloppy with ridging being the main driver for seasonable east to southeasterly breezes.
In response, ridging will return to our area. Guidance suggests that near nil PoPs are still appropriate as the heart of the high may end up overhead. Another trough will dig into the south or southeastern U. An Atlantic ridge will continue to nudge further west as it lifts north into the Florida Peninsula over the next couple of days. After mid week, the pressure pattern will be sloppy with ridging being the main driver for seasonable east to southeasterly breezes.
Our focus for the batch of rain is on a stronger lobe with the upper low that is focused convection developing across KY, WV, VA, and NC. While there is sfc based diurnal instability currently to our SE where this is coming from, the instability we will have develop over the mainly eastern half of the area will be mostly of elevated instability with the lobe of the upper low bringing another pocket of cool air aloft overhead. After 18z Tuesday, the lobe of the upper low will dissipate, and the entire low complex will start to get shoved to the ESE by the upper ridge and next short wave upstream. - Much drier Wed and beyond with a couple of small chances of rain Behind the departing upper low, the area will be mostly dominated by upper ridging aloft.
In the wake of the low, mostly clear and dry skies will prevail with temps rising into the mid 70s.
Heavier snow also moves into the high peaks of the central divide mountains by early tomorrow. - Winter Weather Advisories remain in effect for the higher elevations of the San Juan Mountains through 6 AM Tuesday. Expect minor travel impacts over the higher mountain corridors through this time.
Another surface feature is developing in the Dakotas on the tail end of a front that's moving across central Canada and a third feature is moving off the southern Rocky Mountain into the High Plains of eastern New Mexico and western Texas. Locally, in eastern Kentucky, bands of showers associated with the occluding low are spinning around the center of the low from southeast to northwest. Also, severe thunderstorms aren't expected but due to extremely low freezing levels; instances of hail/graupel will exist. Highs for Tuesday are expected to be slightly warmer with values in the mid to upper-60s with overnight lows for Tuesday night in the mid to upper-40s.
218 PM PDT Mon May 5 2025 High pressure will lead to dry and warming conditions through Tuesday.
- Pleasant conditions with highs in the low to mid 70s today and tomorrow.
939 PM EDT Mon May 5 2025 A cold front will slowly progress eastward across the region through Tuesday, then pull offshore Tuesday night.
659 PM CDT Mon May 5 2025 - Warm dry conditions continue into Tuesday before a cold front moves through.
Radar is showing some convection has back built over the Lake Wales Ridge in E Highlands and SE Polk Counties.
Temperatures continue to fall, and temperatures are on track to perform a couple degrees cooler than forecast.
741 PM EDT Mon May 5 2025 * Upper level low continues to slowly move through the region, with additional isolated to scattered light showers possible until this evening. * Drier weather looks likely for Tuesday with another chance of rain around mid-week with a potential cold front moving through. Temperatures have reached the mid to upper 50s so far today, with both the GOES satellite imagery and radar showing the evidence of the upper low still over the area. For tonight, the upper low will begin to slowly drift northeastward over Ohio, with an upper level omega block patten set up across the country. With the upper low pulling away and to the northeast tonight, drier conditions are expected as we get into the overnight hours.
16 Previous short-term discussion: (This evening through Tuesday) High pressure over the area will keep dry and cool conditions through tonight. A low pressure over the Ohio Valley will produce plenty of clouds, with wrap around clouds across areas of northern Alabama today. Otherwise, tonight, the high pressure slowly meanders east with low and mid level flow prevailing from the south. Highs tomorrow will be several degrees warmer, closer to normal, thanks to that low and mid level flow.
1028 PM EDT Mon May 5 2025 A cold front will stall just offshore as high pressure begins to build into the region.
403 PM CDT Mon May 5 2025 - Warm dry conditions continue into Tuesday before a cold front moves through.
In addition the high based showers with isolated dry lightning activity raises the potential for new fire starts in the Devils Lake Basin where the lower RH is still in place right before the front arrives. Breezy south winds continue to bring warmer temperatures into the area this afternoon. Highs across the region range from the low to middle 80s. Sustained southerly winds will continue through this evening ahead of an approaching cold front, which will bring an abrupt wind shift to the north. Look for additional gusty winds following the frontal passage, along with much cooler temperatures.
901 PM EDT Mon May 5 2025 * Upper level low continues to slowly move through the region, with additional isolated to scattered light showers possible through late evening. * Drier weather looks likely for Tuesday with another chance of rain around mid-week with a potential cold front moving through. Temperatures have reached the mid to upper 50s so far today, with both the GOES satellite imagery and radar showing the evidence of the upper low still over the area. For tonight, the upper low will begin to slowly drift northeastward over Ohio, with an upper level omega block patten set up across the country. With the upper low pulling away and to the northeast tonight, drier conditions are expected as we get into the overnight hours.
Areas of ~20kt wind shear tonight in SE OR and the Lower Treasure Valley.
Any fog that does develop will clear after sunrise, and a nice day then looks to be in store with weak ridging allowing for temperatures to warm into the low and mid-70s with dry conditions. (Rest of today through Tuesday) The upper low continues to be stuck in Kentucky longer than expected. Ideally, the low will lift to the north this afternoon/evening, with rain chances exiting with it.
723 PM EDT Mon May 5 2025 A cold front will stall just offshore as high pressure begins to build into the region.
From synopsis, an Atlantic ridge will continue to nudge further west as it lifts north into the Florida Peninsula over the next couple of days. After mid week, the pressure pattern will be sloppy with ridging being the main driver for seasonable east to southeasterly breezes.
442 PM PDT Mon May 5 2025 - Dry with warmer than normal temperatures through much of the week.
Increasing clouds will begin to encroach from the southwest as upper level diffluence spreads northeast into the Ozarks, mid South and lower TN/MS valleys as an upper low enters the TX panhandle. Afternoon high temperatures in the middle to upper 70s in valley areas and upper 60s to lower 70s atop the higher plateaus/mtns look reasonable at this time.
353 AM EDT Tue May 6 2025 (Today through Wednesday) At a glance: - Cooler temperatures will continue through the short term.
Rainfall coverage should temporarily decrease from south to north going through the afternoon hours as the main cut-off low drifts further east into New Mexico where latest obs shows the potential of a mid level dry slot for a brief period of time could give us a break from the rainfall. Later tonight, a nudge from the PacNW H500 trough will displace the H500 low back into the southern stream jet.
- Drier and warmer conditions will return for the second half of the work week.
We are then in for a pretty nice Tuesday with weak ridging overhead allowing for temperatures to warm into the low to mid-70s.
Other than some high clouds, tonight will be clear with high pressure building in. However, some Illinois Valley spots where the wind stayed up last night should see it decouple tonight, so it could be a few degrees cooler there than last night. Even so, we're not anticipating any west side frost/freezing conditions. The east side will be chilly, but with low temps pretty close to the seasonal averages in the low to mid 30s for Klamath Falls, Lakeview and Alturas.
Showers and storms will continue to track north as the center of the low advances across Lake Erie. KEY MESSAGES: - Periodic showers and possible thunderstorms continue Tuesday - Dry for much of the area on Wednesday ------------------------------------------------------------------- The prolonged upper level low over the Ohio River Valley is anticipated to make a much needed forward push starting Tuesday and reaching the New England region by Wednesday afternoon. While surface heating is expected to be limited with increased cloud cover (limiting the severe threat), the cold core aloft of the low may still allow for isolated/scattered thunderstorms. Weak northwest flow will develop in the wake of the low Wednesday, drying out the mid levels and offering some area subsidence.
Today Currently early this morning, an omega blocking pattern is in place with a closed low to our northeast. A weak area of high pressure is in place across the surface. Tonight Tonight, this pattern will shift eastward with increasing ridging between the two upper lows moving over the area.
High pressure aloft will lead to another dry and warm day across Western Washington. A weak system will arrive on Wednesday bringing cooler temperatures and chances for showers. Somewhat warmer and generally dry conditions return late week before another front reaches the region over the weekend.
Closed upper low currently acrs central KY will gyrate enough to the east to allow for clearing of most of the stratocu acrs the local area tonight. This clearing with a bout of sfc ridging will make for light winds tonight and cooling into the mid or even lower 40s. A bout of both sfc and upper ridging will lead to a nice spring day with more sunshine and temps warming into the low to mid 70s.
Low pressure will move through the region bringing chances for showers and thunderstorms through Wednesday.
Through Tuesday, an upper level ridge of high pressure will move across the PacNW, continuing a trend of drying conditions and warming temperatures. By early Wednesday morning, upper level ridging will be pushed out the area by a strengthening upper level low in the Gulf of Alaska, with southwest flow developing as a result. Otherwise, an cold front with this system will tighten surface pressure gradients as it approaches the PacNW, resulting in breezy to to locally gusty winds (gusts 30-45mph) through the Cascade gaps with breezy conditions (guts 20-30mph) elsewhere in the lower elevations.
Expect the upper level low across southeastern Arizona this afternoon to cross New Mexico and emerge into the southern Plains over the next 24 to 36 hours. While the center of this low will pass well south of the local area, could see a couple of the dissipating bands of precip wrapping around the low lift as far north as I-80 Tuesday evening through Wednesday evening. despite the rather generous pops in the forecast, overall precipitation amounts will be limited, with the highest totals (mainly less than 0.
* More showers/storms Tuesday and Wednesday before an upper low finally loses its grip on Pennsylvania.
117 AM MDT Tue May 6 2025 - Rain and Snow Showers Winding Down Today - Warmer Temperatures Quickly Return - A Few Showers and Storms Possible Later in the Week Rain and snow continues to shift south and west this morning. Otherwise, dry conditions quickly return along with warmer conditions.
Overall pattern at the mid levels shown the Omega block across the country with the low pressure center over the the Ohio valley into Tennessee. The low pressure system has resulted in a funneling of dry air from the ridging over the plains into the southeast and much of north and central Georgia. Rain chances will remain limited until this block breaks down and the other low pressure system over the west pushes eastward into the area on Wednesday. In the short term, there is only a 15% chance for showers over extreme north Georgia close to where the low pressure forcing exists. Wednesday morning rain chances begin to increase from the West as the low pressure system begins moving eastward.
Omega block remains in place today with upper lows over the southwest and east central U. and ridging in between. Except for some eastward shifts of both lows, little change in the upper level pattern occurs on Tuesday resulting in similarly pleasant conditions with mostly sunny skies and slightly warmer temperatures further into the 70s.
This, along with widespread precipitation, will effectively keep a warm front south of the area this morning and into the afternoon. Although a warm front is expected to remain south, a farther northward movement may result in a few boundary layer storms. The mid and upper low, currently over the far eastern Arizona, is expected to slowly move across New Mexico through early Wednesday.
Current upper air models show split flow, with long wave trough running through the Rockies. The highest elevation Black Hills regions may see some snow or a mix, however no accumulations are expected. As upper trough slides eastward, additional chances for showers/storms will continue Wednesday. Troughing will also support cooler temperatures mid-week, with lows only in the 40s and 50s for northeastern WY and northwestern SD on Tuesday, a bit warmer to the south and east. Progressive flow mid-week will turn into ridging later in the week and into the weekend, bringing a gradual warming trend Wednesday and into the weekend the weekend.
Cut-off low continues to plaque the Midwest this afternoon. A rather robust area of showers/storms currently over the Maryland Panhandle and West Virginia (odd to say in an Indiana AFD) will move northwest into our area tonight, congealing into a deformation zone on the northern edge of this low. Low pressure developing over the Four Corners finally kicks our local cut-off low eastward on Tuesday night and Wednesday. Cold, Canadian high pressure threatens to rush in late in the day, but its colder air mass likely holds off until the overnight hours. This high pressure does, however, shunt low pressure traversing the lower-Mississippi valley well south of our area.
320 AM EDT Tue May 6 2025 Additional showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected today under a slow moving area of low pressure.
422 AM EDT Tue May 6 2025 High pressure will rebuild into the area Tuesday and Wednesday, while another low pressure and/or cold front moves into the region by late week. 10-20% chance of isolated tstorms along sea breeze this afternoon Cold front that has been stalled over the region the past couple days finally pushes offshore this morning with drier air moving in behind it. Today, we warm up as high pressure starts building in. Sea breeze advances inland, and models have been on a drier trend along the sea breeze as cold front will have pushed offshore and drier air will have moved in by the time the sea breeze starts up. Highs today in the low to mid 80s inland, near 80 along the coast.
500 mb upper ridge holding over northern MN into eastern SD early this morning. The actual cold front/wind shift at 08z is near Bemidji to Detroit Lakes to Forman ND. So look for a cooler day today and a breezy/windy day with north winds 15-30 mph especially over E ND and northwest MN. High pressure moves east from Manitoba into NW Ontario Wednesday with winds turning more easterly but should be a good deal of sunshine for most, though some mid clouds may hold up in far southern fcst area and then back up into western ND.
1238 AM CDT Tue May 6 2025 - Warm dry conditions continue into Tuesday before a cold front moves through.
Rainfall rates may be enhanced by weak instability in the lower levels of the atmosphere. Can't rule out some rumbles of thunder but the instability values are fairly low, around 100 J/kg, and resulting convection confined mostly within a layer of temperatures warmer than -10 Celsius. Drier air quickly moves in behind it as seen in the low to mid level moisture profiles.
117 AM EDT Tue May 6 2025 A cold front will stall just offshore as high pressure begins to build into the region.
Showers and thunderstorms will continue through Wednesday, before high pressure moves in and brings mostly warm/dry conditions. The first closed low is centered across the AZ/NM border currently, keeping a light line of showers across the backside of the low extending from Ash Fork to Punkin Center. Another closed low is forecast to push southward from the Great Basin region.
(Today through Wednesday) Water vapor imagery this morning reveals a stout upper trough churning across the Desert Southwest.
Surface ridging nosed over the Florida Peninsula will promote east to southeast winds across our waters. Only this time, low pressure building along the northwestern Gulf coast will keep the pressure gradient tight. Tonight, breezes will freshen to moderate to fresh as deep troughing slides into the southern Great Plains bringing very wet weather to the north edge of the Gulf. This area of great moisture convergence will stay well to our northwest, with a bit of a dry slot in the lower to mid levels settling over the Keys for the next few days or so as ridging builds in behind a gyre in the Ohio river valley lifting north. The deep trough over the Great Plains will slowly intrude into the Mid West before pivoting south into the Gulf.
Once the early morning fog lifts, a mostly sunny and pleasant day will unfold with afternoon high temperatures climbing to seasonal normals in the lower to middle 70s. After a clear evening, mid/high clouds will be on the increase across the area overnight as an upper low currently over the Desert Southwest begins to pivot northeastward into the Southern Plains. Low temperatures will drop into the lower 50s. As the low gets closer, skies will become partly to mostly cloudy during the day Wednesday and scattered showers will spread across Missouri into southern Illinois. Meanwhile to the north, a backdoor cold front dropping southwestward out of the Great Lakes will trigger scattered showers along the I-80 corridor by late afternoon.
Daytime high temperatures will peak in the mid to upper 80s over northeast Florida with southeast Georgia in the low to mid 80s. Overnight, rain and isolated storms shift to the offshore waters with lows dipping into the upper 50s to mid 60s, with the warmer temperatures closer to the coast. (Tuesday through Wednesday night) Cold front will begin to lift back north into NE FL as a warm front Tuesday, resulting a few showers and thunderstorms over north central FL.
947 PM PDT Mon May 5 2025 - Dry with warmer than normal temperatures through much of the week. - Light showers arrive with weak cold front Wednesday night. Temperatures return into the 70s by Tuesday and continue to be warmer than normal throughout the work week. A weak cold front will bring a chance for light showers on Wednesday night. Tonight and Tuesday: The ridge will remain in place for the period. Optimal radiational cooling will drive overnight temperatures into the 30s with sheltered northern valleys reaching the below freezing line. There is not a lot of moisture associated with the trough and any precip will mainly be over the higher terrain of the Cascades and Idaho Panhandle.
146 AM EDT Tue May 6 2025 * Upper level low continues to slowly move through the region, with additional isolated to scattered light showers possible through late evening. * Drier weather looks likely for Tuesday with another chance of rain around mid-week with a potential cold front moving through. Temperatures have reached the mid to upper 50s so far today, with both the GOES satellite imagery and radar showing the evidence of the upper low still over the area. For tonight, the upper low will begin to slowly drift northeastward over Ohio, with an upper level omega block patten set up across the country. With the upper low pulling away and to the northeast tonight, drier conditions are expected as we get into the overnight hours.