Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
(Today through Monday) The most exciting weather event during this portion of the total forecast will be the approach of a weak cold front from the north tonight through Monday. Finally, elevated seas along the Lower Texas Coast will produce a Moderate Risk of rip currents at the local beaches as the most active Spring Break period draws to a close.
A cold front will approach the area Monday, and move off the coast Monday evening. The gradient will gradually strengthen overnight as another cold front crosses the southern Appalachians. Dewpoints currently running in the mid 30s inland to lower 40s coast will rise through the day, reaching the lower 40s inland to lower 50s coast by this evening. Monday will be windy with the pressure gradient increasing ahead of another cold front and mixing of 30-35 kt winds.
As the cold front approaches the area tonight, some low clouds are expected, mainly for the southeastern half of the forecast area.
350 AM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025 - Windy and slightly cooler weather can be expected today and tonight in the wake of a weak cold front.
- Warmer and more humid conditions expected today.
The 02Z sfc analysis also indicates increasing sfc theta-e over SE TX/SW LA, with these warmer/more moist conditions expected to expand N overnight into E TX/N LA, contributing to lower stratocu cigs along the intensifying SSWrly LLJ. The low level moisture profile will remain shallow though, and given the lack of any significant lifting mechanism, dry conditions will persist through at least mid- morning before the profile is able to deepen sufficiently ahead of our approaching cold front as it enters N TX/SE OK/NW AR. Ceilings for other sites will gradually drop to MVFR levels over the next 6 hours ahead of an incoming cold front.
319 AM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025 - Scattered showers and storms shift off to the east before sunrise as a passing cold front increases wind gusts up to 35 mph later this morning. A 700 mb trough axis is moving through eastern Kansas this morning, coinciding with mid level moisture convergence noted as far north as the I-70 corridor. Next highlight for today is the widespread very high to extreme fire danger and gusty winds behind a passing cold front this morning (see Fire Weather Discussion for more details).
1207 AM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025 Updated at 1207 AM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025 - Breezy and slightly cooler conditions on Sunday behind a morning cold front.
105 AM MST Sun Mar 23 2025 Temperatures will continue to increase through the first half of the week as strong high pressure builds over the region. Temperatures will gradually cool during the latter half of the week, but should remain warmer than normal. Flat ridging resulting in dry quasi-zonal flow persists over the region early this morning with H5 heights hovering around 575dm per objective analysis.
Upstream obs early this morning across Missouri show clusters of convection already congealing along and just north of a sfc warm front.
- Dry conditions this morning as ridging transitions over the region. ------------------------------------------------------------------- Blended in 25th percentile NBM to account for the recent warmer regime that may lead to ensemble model warm bias and also to better account for ideal radiational cooling conditions overnight with relatively clear skies and calm wind. Dry conditions will continue this morning as ridging builds in across the region. This will bring a cold front through the area tonight and spread mainly rain showers across the area by late this afternoon. The cold front will cross overnight, passing PIT around 06z. Without widespread rain, high temperatures Monday afternoon should actually run a few degrees warmer than today. The upper trough axis nears the area by Monday evening, with flow becoming more westerly.
347 AM EDT Sun Mar 23 2025 A warm front will push into the region tonight, with some light snow and a wintry mix that will changeover to light rain Monday morning. Unsettled weather with cool conditions will continue through mid week with an upper trough overhead. Low pressure will track into the Great Lakes tonight with a warm front extending into the northeast U. Temperatures will be near freezing and precipitation may start as snow just about everywhere. Temperatures will warm up on Monday, with highs climbing into the low to mid 50s for much of the region. Upper trough will settle overhead by late in the day, with scattered showers likely across Central NY.
1154 PM CDT Sat Mar 22 2025 - Warmer and more humid conditions expected today and Sunday. - Chances of showers and thunderstorms increase late Sunday afternoon through early Monday morning with the next cold front.
(Today through Monday night) Latest 08Z obs this morning shows a cold front continues to move south through the remainder of the Texas Panhandle. In the wake of the cold front, northwest to northerly winds will be established through the early afternoon hours as sfc-H700 isoheights will have a sharp gradient. High temperatures today in the wake of the front will range from the lower to upper 60s. Large scale subsidence on the eastern periphery of a broad H500 ridge over the SW CONUS will move towards eastern NM and the Panhandles tomorrow. Temperatures tomorrow will moderate with highs well into the 70s with some locations in the low 80s with dry conditions expected to continue.
The 02Z sfc analysis also indicates increasing sfc theta-e over SE TX/SW LA, with these warmer/more moist conditions expected to expand N overnight into E TX/N LA, contributing to lower stratocu cigs along the intensifying SSWrly LLJ. The low level moisture profile will remain shallow though, and given the lack of any significant lifting mechanism, dry conditions will persist through at least mid- morning before the profile is able to deepen sufficiently ahead of our approaching cold front as it enters N TX/SE OK/NW AR.
(Through Tonight) Thunderstorms have begun to develop in northeast Oklahoma as a warm front moves north across the area. the nose of a jet segment approaches from the northwest and low-level flow increases into the warm frontal zone.
1228 AM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025 (Tonight through Sunday night) Some low level moisture has finally returned to the lower Texas coast, resulting in some persistent cloud cover and streamer showers working north towards southeastern Cameron County.
With instability in place thanks to the cool northwesterly flow aloft, and lift provided by a combination of favorable orographics and a jet aloft, light rain and snow showers have popped up over the higher terrain this afternoon. Accumulations out of this wave will be a trace to maybe 2 inches at the highest elevations. Ridging starts to build in in earnest tomorrow night, with warm air advection kicking in. Guidance favored lows on the warmer side, with temperatures tomorrow night running 5-10 degrees above normal. With high pressure overhead for much of the upcoming week, unseasonably warm and dry conditions are anticipated.
pdf High pressure over the area today, creating mostly clear skies and daytime highs into the low to mid 70s inland with temperatures slightly cooler along the coast as the sea-breeze develops. Overnight lows will be slightly warmer than the night before, with temperatures in the low to mid 40s inland, staying slightly warmer along the coast. (Sunday through Monday night) Ridging will extend across FL, from a high centered to the east Sunday and Sunday night. Subsidence under this ridge will continue the dry weather. A cold front will move southeast toward the region Sunday night, with clouds spreading over region ahead of it.
High pressure ridge remains suppressed to the south of the region across the FL Peninsula, while a weak frontal boundary will sag southward across the Carolinas.
Another cold front will cross the region Monday bringing a chance for rain. Cold front looks to stall across the Carolinas overnight and then reactivate as a warm front aloft by morning. High altitude cloud cover will develop with jet via mountain wave, mainly east of the Blue Ridge Escarpment, but some cirrus may also be seen with weak disturbances in upper flow late tonight. Mins will be a little below normal, especially in mountain valleys; a few valley spots and some locations in the northern mountains are expected to fall just below freezing. WAA aloft could lead to some high-based stratocu developing by afternoon as moisture returns, and/or cumulus over ridgetops.
pdf A high pressure ridge extending from high pressure centered to the east, will extend across the region Today. Highs in the lower to mid 80s expected inland. The Atlantic sea breeze will push inland, holding highs along and east of I95 in the lower to mid 70s.
646 AM EDT Sun Mar 23 2025 A warm front will start to lift into the area this afternoon, quickly followed by a cold front this evening, bringing widespread showers and possibly a thunderstorm. It will be breezy on Monday as low pressure passes well north of the area.
Meanwhile further northwest, a cold front is triggering a line of showers across Minnesota/Iowa and this activity will push across the northern counties this afternoon. Barnes Upstream obs early this morning across Missouri show clusters of convection already congealing along and just north of a sfc warm front.
As a reminder, while the hazard chance percentages seem low, factoring in the high-impact nature (and potential costs) of severe weather hazards means any non-zero percentages are statistically significant. Otherwise, temperature maximums will remain well above normal in the lower 80s, with post-frontal conditions by tomorrow allowing somewhat closer to normal but still above normal temperatures (maximums/minimums in the upper 70/lower 50s). 25 with the higher amounts expected south of I-20 and east of I-49. Long-range guidance is in more agreement on the timing than the intensity of the trough, but ultimately a wet weekend is becoming more likely for the end of the month.
631 AM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025 - Scattered showers and storms shift off to the east before sunrise as a passing cold front increases wind gusts up to 35 mph later this morning. A 700 mb trough axis is moving through eastern Kansas this morning, coinciding with mid level moisture convergence noted as far north as the I-70 corridor. Next highlight for today is the widespread very high to extreme fire danger and gusty winds behind a passing cold front this morning (see Fire Weather Discussion for more details).
549 AM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025 - Windy and slightly cooler weather can be expected today and tonight in the wake of a weak cold front.
- Low to medium chances for rain on Monday, with possibly a little light freezing rain or snow in the morning.
- Strong ridging this week, with temperatures well into the 60s and 70s. Most of the upcoming week will be dominated by strong H5 ridging along the Intermountain West. This ridge is marked by very warm air with it, with H7 temps +3 to +7C.
As high pressure builds easterly into the Atlantic, the east to southeasterly winds will strengthen today into tonight. Thereafter, weak ridging will take over for the first half of the week resulting in our winds slackening but remaining mostly easterly.
A cold front sags south into far northern parts of the Hill Country and Edwards Plateau late this afternoon, then much of our area this evening into tonight.
Moisture and instability will increase across our region today ahead of the approaching cold front. Latest model consensus holds off vigorous convection in our CWA until this evening and initially over our northwest most zones in a line along and just ahead of the cold front. There looks to remain a low potential for isolated severe storms early Monday morning across our southern most zones until the cold front moves through. /22/ Scattered rain showers/t-storms will linger across the southeast and south central Mississippi Monday morning as the cold front continues to drag south across our CWA.
Our CWA will remain in the transition zone between a Pacific ridge building inland and a deeper trough anchored over eastern NOAM through the short term. This means we remain in an unpredictable NW flow pattern with remnant AR moisture continuing to roam around the periphery of the ridge and dropping through our transition zone. The bulk of measurable snow looks to be above pass level and limited to the higher peaks of the Park Range of a few inches through the next 48 hours.
600 AM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025 - Scattered showers and storms shift off to the east before sunrise as a passing cold front increases wind gusts up to 35 mph later this morning. A 700 mb trough axis is moving through eastern Kansas this morning, coinciding with mid level moisture convergence noted as far north as the I-70 corridor. Next highlight for today is the widespread very high to extreme fire danger and gusty winds behind a passing cold front this morning (see Fire Weather Discussion for more details).
Strong area of high pressure will build across the region through the duration of the week bringing a substantial warming trend.
1028 AM EDT Sun Mar 23 2025 A warm front will lift into the area this afternoon, quickly followed by a cold front this evening, bringing widespread showers and possibly a thunderstorm. It will be breezy on Monday as low pressure passes well north of the area.
KEY MESSAGES: - Dry conditions this morning as ridging transitions over the region. ------------------------------------------------------------------- Some patchy valley fog/freezing fog has formed south of Pittsburgh this morning, where warming river temperatures interact with temperatures in the upper teens and lower 20s. Surface ridging will begin to edge east of the region through the day. High temperatures will end up not too far from climatology as flat ridging aloft moves through. This will bring a cold front through the area tonight and spread mainly rain showers across the area by late this afternoon. The cold front will cross overnight, passing PIT around 06z. Without widespread rain, high temperatures Monday afternoon should actually run a few degrees warmer than today. The upper trough axis nears the area by Monday evening, with flow becoming more westerly.
As a reminder, while the hazard chance percentages seem low, factoring in the high-impact nature (and potential costs) of severe weather hazards means any non-zero percentages are statistically significant. Otherwise, temperature maximums will remain well above normal in the lower 80s, with post-frontal conditions by tomorrow allowing somewhat closer to normal but still above normal temperatures (maximums/minimums in the upper 70/lower 50s). 25 with the higher amounts expected south of I-20 and east of I-49. Long-range guidance is in more agreement on the timing than the intensity of the trough, but ultimately a wet weekend is becoming more likely for the end of the month. Ceilings for other sites will gradually drop to MVFR levels over the next 6 hours ahead of an incoming cold front.
644 AM EDT Sun Mar 23 2025 A warm front will push into the region tonight, with some light snow and a wintry mix that will changeover to light rain Monday morning. Unsettled weather with cool conditions will continue through mid week with an upper trough overhead. Low pressure will track into the Great Lakes tonight with a warm front extending into the northeast U. Temperatures will be near freezing and precipitation may start as snow just about everywhere. Temperatures will warm up on Monday, with highs climbing into the low to mid 50s for much of the region. Upper trough will settle overhead by late in the day, with scattered showers likely across Central NY.
346 AM MST Sun Mar 23 2025 Temperatures will continue to increase through the first half of the week as strong high pressure builds over the region. Temperatures will gradually cool during the latter half of the week, but should remain warmer than normal. Flat ridging resulting in dry quasi-zonal flow persists over the region early this morning with H5 heights hovering around 575dm per objective analysis.
631 AM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025 (Today through Monday) The most exciting weather event during this portion of the total forecast will be the approach of a weak cold front from the north tonight through Monday. Finally, elevated seas along the Lower Texas Coast will produce a Moderate Risk of rip currents at the local beaches as the most active Spring Break period draws to a close.
KEY MESSAGES: - Dry conditions this morning as ridging transitions over the region. Surface ridging will begin to edge east of the region through the day. High temperatures will end up not too far from climatology as flat ridging aloft moves through. This will bring a cold front through the area tonight and spread mainly rain showers across the area by late this afternoon. The cold front will cross overnight, passing PIT around 06z. Without widespread rain, high temperatures Monday afternoon should actually run a few degrees warmer than today. The upper trough axis nears the area by Monday evening, with flow becoming more westerly.
Cooler and periods of active weather return by mid to late this week with breezy southerly winds. Ridging builds across interior NorCal today through early this week, resulting in drier and warmer conditions across the area.
Snow levels continue to rise through the day, reaching at least 6000 feet by this afternoon, as an upper ridge builds along the coast.
High pressure over the region allows for fair weather and temperatures much warmer than average.
Surface and upper level ridging will remain over our region this afternoon into the first half of the overnight. Snowfall totals will range from a couple tenths of an inch up to three inches in the higher elevations of the southern Adirondacks and Greens.
1114 AM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025 - Scattered showers and storms shift off to the east before sunrise as a passing cold front increases wind gusts up to 35 mph later this morning. A 700 mb trough axis is moving through eastern Kansas this morning, coinciding with mid level moisture convergence noted as far north as the I-70 corridor. Next highlight for today is the widespread very high to extreme fire danger and gusty winds behind a passing cold front this morning (see Fire Weather Discussion for more details).
410 PM EDT Sun Mar 23 2025 A cold front will move east across the region this evening into the early morning hours of Monday, bringing widespread showers and possibly a thunderstorm. It will be dry but windy on Monday as low pressure passes well north of the area.
We are waiting for the low level moisture return to ramp up as dew points across the area are still sitting in the upper 20s to mid 30s. High res guidance continues to show a surge of moisture ahead of the cold front that will approach this afternoon. Dew points are forecast to approach the low to mid 50s west of I-65 by mid afternoon. Effective bulk shear will be more than ample to support organized updrafts and the low level helicity values do support a low end tornado threat especially if a cell can remain discrete for a time. The front will clear the area by Monday morning with high pressure building in from the west and northwest flow aloft.
This combined with building high pressure to the south is resulting in a wide range of conditions with VFR being the most common. With clearing skies tonight and high pressure strengthening over the region, expect the return of low clouds/fog in West Side Valleys as well as the Klamath Basin. Conditions will gradually improve this afternoon and evening with winds veering to northerly tonight into Monday under a weak thermal trough.
For the start of our work week high pressure will be pushed off in the Atlantic as a cold front start to push through the southeast. This will shift our winds to the south and bring some warmer and more humid air with some areas in the interior expected to get into the upper 80's Monday.
pdf High pressure will build further away to the east southeast through Tonight, as a cold front approaches from the northwest. Lows Tonight will range from the upper 40s inland, to the lower to mid 50s close to the coast.
1210 PM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025 - Windy and slightly cooler weather can be expected today and tonight in the wake of a weak cold front.
Nevertheless, subtle ridging aloft and remnant dry air along the column will help suppress any chances for any rainfall through the period. Although the front is expected to stall somewhere over the southeast or even portions of northern Florida, winds will become more southerly Monday afternoon as it approaches, with temperatures rocketing up into the lower 90s across portions of the interior. High along the coasts will be tempered by onshore flow, peaking in the low-mid 80s.
There could be a couple boundaries where convection develops -- along a surface cold front to the north and west and another differential heating boundary across northern Mississippi that will snake into northwest Alabama.
- Wind gusts of 30 to 40 mph this evening behind a cold front.
200 PM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025 - Much more seasonal temperatures today as afternoon highs will be in the low to mid 60s.
Up to 4" of snow is possible on the highest peaks. An upper-level ridge continues to build in from the west over the next 36 hours leading to warm and predominately dry conditons. Accumulation will mainly occur on the highest peaks where up to 4" is expected.
Moisture increases tonight ahead of an approaching weak cold front which will bring showers to the region on Monday. This Afternoon: Temperatures continue to rise through the lower 70s early this afternoon. Tonight: Mostly clear skies this evening will give way to increasing clouds as an upper trough moves eastward through the Ohio Valley pushing a weak cold front towards the region. Overnight lows expected to be mild with increasing clouds and boundary layer winds staying up a bit with lows in the lower 50s. A cold front will slowly move through the forecast area on Monday.
1227 PM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025 (Today through Monday) The most exciting weather event during this portion of the total forecast will be the approach of a weak cold front from the north tonight through Monday. Finally, elevated seas along the Lower Texas Coast will produce a Moderate Risk of rip currents at the local beaches as the most active Spring Break period draws to a close.
Surface analysis late this morning places a warm front over portions of southern Missouri and western Kentucky. A cold front is located from western Missouri back into eastern Oklahoma.
Convergence in vicinity of the approaching cold front and with some more subtle boundaries of convergence will be the areas of focus for showers and storms into the overnight. The upper-level pattern through the remainder of the week will feature western ridging and eastern troughing with northwest flow between.
Another area of weak low pressure will develop across the area Monday and could help produce gusty southwest winds in some areas of central KS where very high fire danger may once again develop.
(The rest of today and tonight) Breezy and gusty northwest winds have developed behind a cold front that worked its way through the forecast area this morning and early afternoon. Latest probabilistic data from HREF and NBM continue to indicate temperatures remain above freezing and therefore freeze/frost headlines are not needed at this time, but will monitor trends closely.
(Tonight through Monday night) A large 500mb trough works east across the CONUS, maintaining mostly zonal flow across Deep South Texas, turning a little northwesterly Monday night as the ridge sets up across the Desert SW.
High pressure builds over our area today while the southern edge of a weak cold front brushes northern Douglas County. The high has helped LIFR to develop in the Umpqua Valley, which is expected to persist until around 18Z. Conditions will gradually improve this afternoon and evening with winds veering to northerly tonight into Monday under a weak thermal trough.