Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
The low that brought snow to the area is on the way out this morning. Cloud cover may keep temperatures cooler than forecasted if they linger longer. Speaking of, models bring in a broad trough Thursday. This system will also lock in the cooler temperatures, with highs Thursday in the 30s to low 40s.
1232 AM EDT Wed Oct 30 2024 High pressure will provide dry and warm weather into early Thursday. Showers return late Thursday and Thursday night with a crossing cold front.
Daytime highs will once again be fairly unseasonably warm, with highs in the low/mid 80s. Overnight lows will fairly unseasonably warm, only falling into the lower to upper 60s. A trailing cold front will be pulled into the region by daybreak Thursday, where it could develop a few showers in the western portions of the CWA. The parent low will lift into the upper Great Lakes throughout the day on Thursday and pull the cold front into the forecast area.
1245 AM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024 (Rest of tonight) High pressure over the Mid-Atlantic region has edged slightly westward so far this evening. Several models advect abundant moisture between 925 mb and 850 mb into the area around the southern portion of this area of high pressure.
This has led to continued broad upper ridging extending northward encompassing the entire eastern seaboard. The surface reflection is a strong high pressure center off the New England coast. This high pressure will ridge southwest through the western Atlantic, over Florida and into the Gulf of Mexico producing rain-free conditions, warm temperatures and gusty east-northeast winds through the end of the week. The high pressure moves farther southeastward close to Bermuda by late Thursday, while an area of low pressure moves through the Great Lakes. The associated cold front will extend southward through the Mississippi River Valley to MS/LA.
A large upper ridge remains over the eastern third of the country. At the surface, under the ridge, high pressure stretches down the East Coast and back west over the Gulf Coast states. It's the pressure gradient over the Lower Ohio Valley between the two surface features that is driving the gusty warm air advection. Temperatures are close to peaking with most area temperatures in the upper 70s with a few in the low 80s. Upper low opens up as it kicks ENE from the Red River Valley of the North, crossing Gitche Gumee Thu evening and driving a sfc cold front into the Ohio Valley.
918 PM PDT Tue Oct 29 2024 Two areas of low pressure across the West will keep our region cooler this week.
228 AM EDT Wed Oct 30 2024 High pressure will remain in control through late week, with mostly dry weather and above normal temperatures.
131 AM MDT Wed Oct 30 2024 - Cooler and unsettled weather pattern this week. Any lingering rain and snow will move out of the region this morning, and conditions are expected to remain mostly dry into early Thursday as brief ridging builds in before the next system moves in Thursday afternoon.
300 AM EDT Wed Oct 30 2024 Warm and dry high pressure will yield temperatures at or near daily record highs Today and Thursday.
- A cold front will bring a chance of rain showers Thursday.
A cold front, and a chance for rain and thunder are likely to impact the region Thursday. Cooler, cloudy weather will then set in for this weekend with highs dropping into the 60s and 70s.
A deep trough will move across the northern Plains into the Midwest by 12z Thu. A cold front will track across Iowa through the daylight hours, with a wave of low pressure moving along it. A dprog/dt of QPF reveals that the highest totals over 1 inch has shifted west over the past 36 hours. Areas west of a line from Ottumwa to Dubuque now have the highest probabilities of receiving 1" or more. Thursday appears a dry, breezy, cooler day in the 50s. Looking farther out, this weekend continues to appear wet as a deep trough builds into the Southwest CONUS, with active, moisture rich, southwest flow over the Midwest. Have included PROB30 groups for this, but only added thunder at CID for now where NBM probabilities were the highest (20-30%).
Highs will be in the lower to middle 80s. In addition, central IL is sitting between high pressure to the east and this next weather system to our west. Temps will be quite warm again tomorrow with highs in the lower 80s.
Highs today will be in the low to mid 80s. Showers will start to move into the region from the west overnight ahead of a cold front. As the cold front moves into the Mid-South showers and some thunderstorms will develop ahead of it.
400 AM EDT Wed Oct 30 2024 Warm and dry high pressure will yield temperatures at or near daily record highs Today and Thursday.
- A strong cold front will push through the region on Thursday, bringing widespread showers and thunderstorms during the morning and afternoon hours.
322 AM EDT Wed Oct 30 2024 A strong upper ridge remains over our region until late week, providing above normal temperatures and continued dry weather.
Cold temperatures will stick around today and tomorrow morning as a low pressure system remains over the region. The low pressure system that brought rain/high elevation snow showers the past couple of days is still situated over Arizona. This system will continue to push towards the northeast throughout today, but cooler temperatures are expected while this trough sticks around. Expect low temperatures today and tomorrow morning to be near/below freezing for many locations above 4000'. There will likely be precipitation and cooler temperatures, but check back later in the week for more information.
We will be borderline advisory criteria for wind, especially ahead of the cold frontal passage tonight. Highs will be in the low 80s, which is too cool for the records for the 30th. (see climate section below) As the cold front passes through the area tonight, a line of showers and thunderstorms are expected to pass through.
Warm and breezy conditions will continue tomorrow and Thursday ahead of a cold front. Upper high and ridging will remain across the southern Atlantic coast.
High pressure will remain in control across the east.
(Today through Thursday) Upper level ridge is in place over the eastern US and that will keep quiet weather in place for today before a frontal system brings us some rain. A trough will lift out of the Rockies and that will increase our pressure gradient today. Clouds will increase tonight as the trough continues to push into the Great Lakes pushing a cold front south.
602 AM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024 (Today through Thursday afternoon) WV imagery shows the upper trough swinging through Utah and Arizona this morning, and it should be invof the Four Corners by 12Z. Fortunately, this doesn't coincide w/max diurnal mixing, but winds should still remain in high wind territory through 00Z, when the trough clears the area and begins ejecting into the upper Midwest. Unfortunately, the trough will drag a Pac front into the area, cooling the northwest CWA by up to 10 F or so. Tonight, a cold front settles in behind the Pac front, ushering in very dry air and dropping overnight lows to only 5 F above normal on average.
648 AM EDT Wed Oct 30 2024 A strong upper ridge remains over our region until late week, providing above normal temperatures and continued dry weather.
Current surface analysis shows frontal boundary well south and east of the region, with low pressure along it across south central/southeast NE. High pressure is noted over far northeast MT. Upper level analysis shows positively tilted trough located from the central Rockies into the northern high Plains. Temps are mostly in the lower 30s across northeast WY and the Black Hills, some upper 20s in the highest hills, with mid 30s to mid 40s elsewhere across the SD plains. Upper trough will move over the area today, with lingering areas of rain, light snow over much of northeast WY and the Black Hills. Highs will mostly be in the 40s to mid 50s Thursday, some 30s over snow covered areas of northeast WY and the higher Black Hills.
- Much cooler on Thursday with brisk northwest winds.
628 AM EDT Wed Oct 30 2024 High pressure will remain in control through late week, with mostly dry weather and above normal temperatures.
753 AM EDT Wed Oct 30 2024 High pressure will maintain dry and warm weather through most of Thursday. Showers return late Thursday and Thursday night with a crossing cold front.
633 AM EDT Wed Oct 30 2024 Warm and dry high pressure will yield temperatures at or near daily record highs Today and Thursday.
241 AM PDT Wed Oct 30 2024 A prevailing low pressure trough pattern over the West will keep Southern California on the cool side this week. It will be fair with chilly nights inland, including frost for the high desert this morning.
Another cool day today followed by temperatures near or just below freezing for the coldest valleys south and east of Tucson.
643 AM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024 - An upper level storm system will move across the area today and a surface cold front will remain just to the east and southeast of the area, bringing chances for showers/storms through the day.
This is amid broad southwesterly flow aloft as seen on water vapor satellite imagery lee of upper trough over the Four Corners region. Getting into Wednesday and Thursday, the main wave of energy within the upper trough is forecast to migrate out of the Central Plains into the Upper Midwest in a rather stout fashion. Behind the departing wave Thursday evening, chilly temperatures remain in place, with temperatures falling below freezing for Halloween night. Ensemble guidance all depicts broad upper ridging building again over the eastern half of the CONUS, along with deep upper troughing in the West. Ensemble guidance also allows one or more waves of energy associated with the upper trough to eject into the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest, increasing the chance for precipitation.
439 AM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024 - An upper level storm system will move across the area today and a surface cold front will remain just to the east and southeast of the area, bringing chances for showers/storms through the day.
857 AM EDT Wed Oct 30 2024 High pressure will remain in control through late week, with mostly dry weather and above normal temperatures.
High pressure has started to move into the northwest portion of the state, pushing the rain further southeast. Aloft the lifting side of the big trough is moving off to our east with weak flow from the high pressure moving in. The upper low with this system is over Wyoming and is forecast to become a closed low and move east. After sunrise today the rain should be fully pushed out by the high pressure. Highs will be cooler today with that high pressure. Thursday we remain in this weaker flow of high pressure, leading to cold overnight lows in the 20s. Thursday night influence from the next low and trough start to move into the west with diffluent southwest flow.
pdf High pressure will be centered to the northeast Today, with ridging extending southwest across region. Weak troughs are expected to develop over the coastal waters, and move ashore in the onshore flow. These troughs will mainly be responsible for producing more cloud coverage, but a few sprinkles or showers will also be possible.
934 AM EDT Wed Oct 30 2024 High pressure will maintain dry and warm weather through most of Thursday. Showers return late Thursday and Thursday night with a crossing cold front.
631 AM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024 (Today through Thursday) The region will be mostly dry today with a slight chance for some showers mainly over the waters thanks to the upper level ridging over eastern CONUS.
Windy conditions of near 20 knots are being observed across the Reef, which is the main story today, thanks to a high pressure over the North Atlantic. From synopsis, a broad high pressure system over the North Atlantic will sink southward and weaken during the latter half of the week. The weather pattern evolving at the end of October in 1958 featured a developing non-tropical low pressure system in the central Gulf of Mexico with a warm front approaching the Florida Keys from the southwest.
With the passage of the surface cold front expect high temperatures in the upper 50s to low 60s. Cooler, drier air moving through the area will yield clear skies setting the stage for radiational cooling.
524 AM MDT Wed Oct 30 2024 KEY MESSAGES: 1) Near normal temperatures with lows routinely below freezing are expected through the end of the week. WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: An upper trough will continue to push east into the Midwestern U. with a split flow in the west around a closed low approaching the Pacific Northwest. Ensembles eventually show a deepening trough late in the week over the western CONUS leading to southwest upper flow over eastern Montana, which could finally lead to some precipitation chances toward the weekend.
High pressure continues to push the clouds out of the northwest and north central. High pressure has started to move into the northwest portion of the state, pushing the rain further southeast. Aloft the lifting side of the big trough is moving off to our east with weak flow from the high pressure moving in. The upper low with this system is over Wyoming and is forecast to become a closed low and move east. After sunrise today the rain should be fully pushed out by the high pressure. Highs will be cooler today with that high pressure. Thursday we remain in this weaker flow of high pressure, leading to cold overnight lows in the 20s. Thursday night influence from the next low and trough start to move into the west with diffluent southwest flow.
932 AM EDT Wed Oct 30 2024 Warm and dry high pressure will yield temperatures at or near daily record highs Today and Thursday.
Drizzle/light rain associated with the low-level cloud deck in place has resulted in a trace to a few hundredths of an inch of precipitation across portions of metro Atlanta this morning, ending the dry streak that started at the end of September. At this time, forecasted high temps generally in the mid-70s to mid-80s (with the cooler temps across north Georgia) look to be on track. However, will blend in some slightly cooler numbers in for today since the cloud cover will likely inhibit good heating for a good portion of the morning.
A more southwesterly upper flow will develop across the area on Thursday as the aforementioned surface cold front approaches from the northwest. Highs both today and Thursday are expected to be in the low to mid 80s across the area, with overnight lows expected to range from the lower 60s over inland locations to the mid and upper 60s, to near 70 closer to and along the coast.
Upper-level water vapor imagery this morning depicts broad longwave troughing over the Intermountain West region. With troughing still overhead another day of below normal temperatures is on tap for the region with lower desert communities forecasted to see afternoon highs in the mid-to-upper 70s and higher terrain areas forecasted to see afternoon highs in the 60s. The aforementioned trough will advect into the Plains and Midwest over the next couple of days, which will lead to rising heights aloft over our region.
622 AM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024 (Today and Tonight) Moisture will continue to feed into the region today ahead of an advancing mid level trough and associated cold front. The highest tornado threat is expected across N-Central Oklahoma, primarily in areas west of Hwy 75 and north of I-44. increasing moisture, cooler afternoon temperatures (highs in the upper 70s/ near 80), and increasing cloud cover should help to keep overall fire weather concerns low.
Afternoon temperatures will be just a touch warmer than yesterday. Afternoon temperatures today will be a touch warmer than yesterday.
631 AM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024 (Today through Thursday) Upper level ridge is in place over the eastern US and that will keep quiet weather in place for today before a frontal system brings us some rain. A trough will lift out of the Rockies and that will increase our pressure gradient today. Clouds will increase tonight as the trough continues to push into the Great Lakes pushing a cold front south.
We will be borderline advisory criteria for wind, especially ahead of the cold frontal passage tonight. Highs will be in the low 80s, which is too cool for the records for the 30th. (see climate section below) As the cold front passes through the area tonight, a line of showers and thunderstorms are expected to pass through. Convection will develop along the active cold front and move toward the area later tonight with showers and storms expected during the overnight hours.
(This evening through Thursday night) A strong upper level ridge is centered on the eastern side of the Appalachian Mountains and the CWA is on the western periphery of it. The ridge will flatten somewhat and spread more southwestward as an upper trough currently moving through the Rockies tracks northeastward to the Great Lakes by late Thursday. This northeastward track of the trough will limit the associated cold front's ability to push much farther south than northern Louisiana.
- Cold front will bring meaningful rainfall to drought-stricken portions of SW MO and SE KS, with localized rainfall amounts as high as 2. Severe weather is still expected this evening as a cold front pushes west to east. Though, since this is an overnight severe weather event in October, it is best to not let your guard down especially with the strong winds that will accompany this low pressure system. This doesn't mean east of Highway 65 has a zero chance of seeing a tornado, this just means that the atmosphere is the most conducive over the western CWA (west of Highway 65) especially near the KS/MO/OK border where CAPE values will be the highest around 1000-1500 J/kg. The LLJ will also bring in more moisture with the highest dewpoints settling in near that KS/MO/OK area.
947 AM MDT Wed Oct 30 2024 - Cooler and unsettled weather pattern this week. The precipitation has diminished across the region this morning and temperatures are gradually warming above freezing over the lower elevations. Any lingering rain and snow will move out of the region this morning, and conditions are expected to remain mostly dry into early Thursday as brief ridging builds in before the next system moves in Thursday afternoon.
This trend is likely to continue farther north and east into North Louisiana and South Arkansas by mid to late afternoon as isentropic forcing continues to increase ahead of an advancing upper-level trough and associated cold front ejecting from the Rockies farther eastward into the Central and Southern Plains. Convection this afternoon through this evening should remain sub-severe, but threat of a few severe storms will begin to increase after midnight through the pre-dawn hours on Thursday morning as the cold front begins to encroach on our extreme NW zones. However, much like late tonight, a non-zero threat of a few tornadoes will persist as shear increases along and ahead of the cold front with temperatures warming into the upper 70s to lower 80s on Thursday afternoon.
An area of low pressure across the Southern Plains will drag a cold front down into Central Texas by Thursday afternoon.
A big dome of high pressure centered over the Atlantic seaboard is responsible for this. We'll probably end up a few degrees cooler south of I-40 than earlier forecast packages suggested. The cold front probably won't get to us until tomorrow night, but ahead of the front, we're looking at potentially two waves of weather. First is a prefrontal trough which will likely be the instigator in any wind threat we may have tomorrow.
To our east, a mid/upper ridge builds over E CONUS. To our west, a deep layer trough digs over the Rockies. Afternoon highs are expected to range from the low/mid 80s across our eastern counties, to the upper 80s to near 90 across our western counties. However, an associated trailing cold front is expected to push towards are region while becoming weaker and increasingly diffused.
205 PM EDT Wed Oct 30 2024 High pressure will remain in control through late week, with mostly dry weather and above normal temperatures.
Meanwhile, the cold front is just beginning to push into the Oklahoma Panhandle. This cold front is expected to push into the FA after 00Z this evening just as the axis of the passing upper trough moves into the Central Plains.
205 PM MDT Wed Oct 30 2024 KEY MESSAGES: 1) Near normal temperatures will generally persist through this week, with overnight lows occasionally dropping below freezing. WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: The slowly-moving, slowly evolving flow aloft, through most of this week, shows signs of multiple blocking low centers and high centers. This morning observation showed some patchy fog that snuck into the lower lying river valleys near Wolf Point and Saco for a about 2 to 3 hours. The blocking pattern begins to give way to a more progressive flow by later this weekend. PATTERN: An upper level blocking pattern is forming over the region, keeping weather fairly stagnant.
Highs today will be much cooler behind a cold front. Warmer temperatures can be expected during this period.
Satellite imagery shows sunny skies across much of north-central Idaho and western Montana, aside from areas of low clouds and fog lifting between Missoula and Lookout Pass, and a layer of stratus drifting northward through northwest Montana as high pressure briefly holds. Thursday's precipitation marks the start of a pattern characterized by splitting troughs, with the bulk of moisture tracking south of the region. Clouds are approaching from the west, linked to an incoming trough that will bring increasing and lowering cloud cover overnight, particularly by Thursday morning.
1207 PM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024 (Today through Thursday afternoon) WV imagery shows the upper trough swinging through Utah and Arizona this morning, and it should be invof the Four Corners by 12Z. Fortunately, this doesn't coincide w/max diurnal mixing, but winds should still remain in high wind territory through 00Z, when the trough clears the area and begins ejecting into the upper Midwest. Unfortunately, the trough will drag a Pac front into the area, cooling the northwest CWA by up to 10 F or so. Tonight, a cold front settles in behind the Pac front, ushering in very dry air and dropping overnight lows to only 5 F above normal on average.
Current temperatures are in the low 70s and should warm into the low 80s by mid afternoon. Rain is still expected to return to the Midsouth late tonight as a cold front approaches the Mississippi River Valley.
Afternoon temperatures will be just a touch warmer than yesterday. Farther south and west, stratus clouds will slowly clear out through 30/12Z before fog development can become more established over the higher central and southwest valleys. Afternoon temperatures today will be a touch warmer than yesterday.
There is a concern for showers and storms to bring down some of the higher gusts aloft. The bad news is that with the cooler temperature profile aloft it will still be a bit windy with gusts to 40 mph possible across much of the area and higher gusts along the lakeshore.
1238 PM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024 - An upper level storm system will move across the area today and a surface cold front will remain just to the east and southeast of the area, bringing chances for showers/storms through the day.
Thus, the highest gusts for coastal areas are likely this evening through midnight or so. A tighter pressure gradient over the coastal waters will keep a stronger easterly flow in play, with the highest winds likely during the time-frame from late afternoon through the first half of the night.
This Evening/Tonight Currently this afternoon, a near record 500mb high of 5,920m is centered just to our east with a deep trough and fairly dynamic system well to our northwest. Thursday For Halloween, the system to our northwest will progress further to the northeast with the upper trough flattening in the process. Also, this Halloween is likely to be one of the warmest on record with record highs for the day listed below: Chattanooga Knoxville Tri-Cities Oak Ridge 86(2016) 84(1950) 80(1984) 83(2016) (Thursday night through next Wednesday) Key Messages: 1.