Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1238 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024 (Today through Saturday) An upper-level ridge centered over Northern Mexico looks to remain in place through the short term period.
158 PM MDT Fri May 31 2024 Satellite imagery shows broad cyclonic flow across the region with the trough axis sliding slowly across eastern Montana. Building flat ridge will then result in dry conditions through mid to late afternoon Saturday. Temps will be warmer tomorrow as well with highs in the mid 70s to around 80F. By evening we should see some convection over our western mountains as short wave energy comes out of the Rockies riding along the flat ridge to zonal flow pattern.
354 PM EDT Fri May 31 2024 High pressure will be in control Friday night through Saturday night.
1257 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024 - Weak instability associated with a slow-moving low pressure system will bring some showers and thunderstorms (80-90% chance) through central Illinois overnight tonight into late Saturday.
Localized heavy rain is a possibility given the high PWAT values in place. As the low moves off to the east this evening, expect a decrease in coverage from west to east, with most of not all precip ending by 06z. Storms forming currently over the Rocky Mountain Front should organize to some degree and roll across the high plains, but he environment this far east not favorable for this to have much impact on our weather into tomorrow.
146 PM EDT Fri May 31 2024 High pressure will build toward the area through Friday, and remain in control through Saturday as it moves off the Mid Atlantic coast.
As of 1:30pm, the high observed so far at Harry Reid Airport is 101 degrees. As mentioned in the previous forecast discussion, a broad longwave trough over the western United States will escort a series of perturbations in the flow across the Great Basin, resulting in breezy afternoons through the week. Heights rise through the work week as a high pressure center sets up over the Intermountain West.
Rain chances will continue to inch upward Saturday night, especially in northwest Georgia where proximity to the upper level trough will be better.
207 PM EDT Fri May 31 2024 Dry weather will continue through Saturday as high pressure across the region drifts to the east coast.
The cooler air and lower dewpoints through most of today has led to the cancellation of the Heat Advisory as heat index values stay below 110.
1104 AM MDT Fri May 31 2024 - A bit warmer today (close to normal) and dry.
447 PM EDT Fri May 31 2024 Dry high pressure centered over the region will keep temperatures slightly below normal, with dry weather persisting through Saturday.
There are a few areas with high-level clouds currently, mostly along the higher terrain. Afternoon highs today were expected to reach 2-10 degrees above normal, with slightly cooler conditions moving in over the weekend.
932 PM EDT Fri May 31 2024 High pressure of Canadian origin will bring dry and cool conditions through this evening. High pressure still remains in control tonight, but will continue to trek eastward. The chance for rain persists Saturday night with the upper level trough axis pivoting through. Surface flow will be southerly to start the night before shifting to the west later on the western side of the trough axis.
Steady southeast winds, lowering/thickening clouds, and rising dewpoints will keep lows in the lower 60s. 25 Another pleasant and seasonable weather day is occurring across the state this afternoon as we remain largely under high pressure.
A weak cold front will enter eastern Oregon Saturday afternoon and cross southwest Idaho in the evening.
745 PM EDT Fri May 31 2024 After another chilly night tonight, expect a beautiful Saturday under plentiful sunshine and warmer temperatures.
726 PM EDT Fri May 31 2024 Dry high pressure centered over the region will keep temperatures slightly below normal, with dry weather persisting through Saturday.
Wind speeds measured by the KFDX WSR-88D are near to slightly in excess of 60 kt within the lowest 500 ft AGL, and the airmass ahead of this system is primed with warm, moist, southeasterly inflow observed in recent West Texas Mesonet data amidst strong instability aloft per recent mesoscale analysis. Thunderstorms have already begun to fire in the high terrain of New Mexico and are expected to propagate eastward through the afternoon and evening. Tomorrow's weather setup is similar to today, with moisture and instability extending to the high terrain of New Mexico. The 500mb ridge is expected to slide slightly eastward and should continue to prevent convection over the forecast area during the afternoon.
539 PM MDT Fri May 31 2024 - Warmer over the weekend with daily chances for showers and thunderstorms.
Wrap- around moisture and an apparent low/mid-level boundary on the southeast side of the low continues to generate a few showers and thunderstorms, mainly affecting portions of far eastern OK and into northwest AR. Precipitation chances will gradually decrease and move eastward through at least midnight (perhaps an hour or two beyond midnight across far northwest AR) as the mid-level trough continues to lift northeastward. As the mid-level trough continues to lift northeastward, surface winds will further decrease and dewpoint depressions are expected to shrink through and after midnight.
Storm total rainfall will range from 1-3 inches with areas west of the Mississippi River forecast to see the highest precipitation amounts through Saturday morning.
Trends favor slightly drier and cooler conditions for Saturday, with highs mainly in the lower to mid 90s and highest rain chances confined primarily to SWFL. Even though we will be drier a strong easterly wind will help to keep temperatures slightly cool with inland areas actually a few degrees cooler then areas along the coast.
714 PM EDT Fri May 31 2024 Unseasonably mild temperatures are expected through Saturday as dry high pressure moves from the Great Lakes to the eastern Carolinas.
(Tonight through Saturday) The upper ridge over the area will continue moving eastward overnight. This feature will be replaced by a trough near the Mississippi state line. The low level flow veers move southerly with time and as the high moves out, our low level moisture increases enough for some precipitation. A weakness in the mid-levels will move over the Mid-South Region overnight while longwave ridging moves further to the northeast of the area. Low temperatures will range from the low 60s north and in the higher terrain east to readings in the upper 60s to near 70 far southwest. High temperatures will range from around 80 far north and in the higher elevations east to the low to mid 80s southwest and far south.
815 PM EDT Fri May 31 2024 High pressure will be in control Friday night through Saturday night.
916 PM EDT Fri May 31 2024 High pressure and dry conditions will continue through Saturday.
928 PM EDT Fri May 31 2024 Dry high pressure centered over the region will keep temperatures slightly below normal, with dry weather persisting through Saturday.
If there is a silver lining, dew points are still trying to creep closer to the lower 70s, but some observations are still showing values in the mid 70s. From synopsis, high pressure over the Ohio Valley will dive southeastward, emerging off the Mid- Atlantic coast over the weekend.
Temperatures Saturday will cool about 2-3 degrees as heights begin to fall slightly as a weak trough digs into the PacNW. As of 1:30pm, the high observed so far at Harry Reid Airport is 101 degrees. As mentioned in the previous forecast discussion, a broad longwave trough over the western United States will escort a series of perturbations in the flow across the Great Basin, resulting in breezy afternoons through the week. Heights rise through the work week as a high pressure center sets up over the Intermountain West.
High temperatures in the lower valleys to the west of Tucson hover around 100F with the valleys out east in the mid 90s. Locally cooler high temperatures in the higher terrain, mostly between the 70s and 80s.
1028 PM EDT Fri May 31 2024 After another chilly night tonight, expect a beautiful Saturday under plentiful sunshine and warmer temperatures.
710 PM EDT Fri May 31 2024 High pressure of Canadian origin will bring dry and cool conditions through this evening. The chance for rain persists Saturday night with the upper level trough axis pivoting through. Surface flow will be southerly to start the night before shifting to the west later on the western side of the trough axis.
957 PM EDT Fri May 31 2024 Only updates that were made were to account for ongoing trends with temps a little warmer than forecasted. Rain chances will continue to inch upward Saturday night, especially in northwest Georgia where proximity to the upper level trough will be better.
Regional radars indicating isolated showers and storms across spreading across the higher terrain, with a stronger storm developing across the southern Sangre's attm. With low level moisture in place and warmer temperatures, should see another round of strong to severe storms, producing large hail and damaging winds across southeast Colorado Saturday afternoon. Highs tomorrow look to slightly warmer than today, in the upper 70s to upper 80s across the plains, and mainly in the 60s and 70s across the higher terrain. After around 9 PM pockets of instability persist for the eastern plains until perhaps 3 AM, with mild overnight temps in the upper 30s to upper 40s for the high valleys, and 50s across the plains.
553 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024 (Tonight) A weak area of low pressure was moving to the NE over the eastern Red River Valley of OK/TX, and bringing an increase in clouds to the area. Despite the thickening clouds, area temperatures have warmed into the low/mid 80s, with SE winds of 5-15 mph. Lows tonight should cool into the low/mid 60s.
735 PM EDT Fri May 31 2024 High pressure and dry conditions will continue through Saturday.
232 AM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024 High pressure still remains in control today, but will begin to slide offshore by tonight.
Upper level ridging over PA will ensure fair weather Saturday. Latest 2m temp ensemble plumes are widely diverging, with most members cooler than the current forecast.
300 AM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024 Canadian high pressure across the area will move offshore late today and tonight.
This activity will remain weak but could produce some erratic wind gusts (maybe up to 35 mph) in the early evening, mainly W-NW of Billings where the 00Z HREF paints the highest probabilities. along with a Pacific cold front. As a result, Sunday will be a bit cooler (highs low-mid 70s) w/ mixed west winds gusting perhaps into the 20s. However, forecast soundings per various models suggest a healthy mid level cap in this region, and thus there is a lack of convection in the high res models. The recent cooler days have limited mountain snow melt, but today's warming should bring some modest diurnal rises through the weekend.
305 AM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024 High pressure over the Great Lakes will settle off the east coast bringing and extended stretch of dry weather to the region with temperatures gradually warming through the weekend.
Dry weather is also expected to continue with high pressure expected to remain entrenched across the region.
212 AM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024 (Tonight through Saturday) The upper ridge over the area will continue moving eastward overnight. This feature will be replaced by a trough near the Mississippi state line. The low level flow veers move southerly with time and as the high moves out, our low level moisture increases enough for some precipitation. A weakness in the mid-levels will move over the Mid-South Region overnight while longwave ridging moves further to the northeast of the area. Low temperatures will range from the low 60s north and in the higher terrain east to readings in the upper 60s to near 70 far southwest. High temperatures will range from around 80 far north and in the higher elevations east to the low to mid 80s southwest and far south.
Low temperatures will be in the lower 60s tonight. As mentioned previously, hot and humid temperatures are on the way for the start of June with highs in the mid 80s and dewpoints in the lower 70s.
(Today through Sunday) Deep South Texas will remain under the northern periphery of an upper level ridge through the period. Broad subsidence from the ridge, and continued southeasterly surface winds will continue to support hot temperatures through the weekend. High temperatures are expected to reach the upper 90s to just over 100 degrees this afternoon, and may be slightly warmer Sunday afternoon with more areas reaching just above 100 degrees. The enhanced pressure gradient along the Lower Texas Coast will continue to support stronger winds and moderate seas along the coast.
230 AM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024 - Weak instability associated with a slow-moving low pressure system is bringing some showers and thunderstorms (80-100% chance) through central Illinois this morning, lasting into late afternoon.
Breezy winds tonight for the east TN mountains, gusts up to 35 mph across the highest ridgetops. Due to the increased cloud cover and vicinity showers, the southern TN valley, Cumberland Plateau, and southwest NC will see the cooler high temps today, around 10 degrees below normal. The 850 mb winds increase to around 30kts as the pressure gradient tightens and the east TN mountains will see breezy winds with gusts up to 35 mph across the higher ridgetops.
129 AM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024 High pressure will bring mostly clear and warm weather for much of the upcoming weekend along with low humidity.
102 AM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024 Dry high pressure centered over the region will keep temperatures slightly below normal, with dry weather persisting through Saturday. High pressure shifts offshore Sunday with warming temperatures and increasing moisture. Another cold front will approach the area late week. Decent cloud cover persists as upstream moisture traverses an ulvl ridge axis. A robust upper trof will continue to translate eastward and off the Atlantic Coast while a stout upper ridge builds over the eastern CONUS. At the sfc, broad high pressure will continue to slide SSE thru the period and will be moving off the SE Coast by the end of the period.
Indications are that storms developing over the High Plains this afternoon will make a run at us again tonight, with better success due to some uptick in westerly flow aloft.
443 AM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024 Weak low pressure will track through the region overnight into Sunday.
201 AM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024 Dry weather will continue through tonight as high pressure across the region drifts to the east coast. Weakening low pressure will move into the Ohio Valley Sunday, bringing a chance of a showers and a few thunderstorms.
Trough axis is slow to move through, so will keeping lingering pops in tonight. As a result, only expecting to drop into the low and mid 60s. Low level ridge will be eroding the moisture transport throughout the day, but still expect a warm and muggy airmass with dewpoints in the upper 60s and temperatures peaking near 80.
247 AM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024 Dry high pressure centered over the region will keep temperatures slightly below normal, with dry weather persisting through today. High pressure shifts offshore Sunday with warming temperatures and increasing moisture.
120 AM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024 A few scattered showers have developed this evening across portions of Southwest Arkansas in response to an upper trough axis moving across the region. With the upper trough still nearby, slight chance PoPs were maintained across the eastern zones through the early morning hours. Still monitoring some light to moderate precipitation across our far SE zones as well as some very light precipitation underneath the upper low itself across portions of SE OK, SW AR and NE LA.
107 AM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024 High pressure and dry conditions will continue through Saturday. Temperatures were touched up to better match observations as it was a mixed bag of warmer and cooler than expected locations. High pressure remains over the region through the period with mostly clear skies. However, low temperatures will be 3 to 5 degrees warmer than last night, so no frost is expected. High pressure will remain over the area Saturday will mostly sunny once again with lighter winds and high temperatures a bit warmer than today, with most areas reaching well into the 70s. High pressure/ridging will push east of the region on Sunday.
Better chance for storms will be this evening, if temperatures can warm into the lower to mid 70s, which will help break the cap. Mostly clear skies will prevail Saturday morning, allowing temperatures to warm into the lower 80s by early afternoon. A wave embedded in the westerly flow aloft should kick off weak showers and thunderstorms over the high country by early afternoon. Models have zonal flow aloft over the CWA Saturday night with flat upper ridging Sunday.
244 AM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024 High pressure of Canadian origin will bring dry and cool conditions through this evening. High pressure still remains in control tonight, but will continue to trek eastward. The chance for rain persists Saturday night with the upper level trough axis pivoting through. Surface flow will be southerly to start the night before shifting to the west later on the western side of the trough axis.
Winds have generally be light and terrain driven today, with many lower elevation locations already warming into the low to mid 70s. These quiet and dry conditions will persist through early tomorrow morning as a transient upper ridge continue to influence the region. The break from precipitation will be brief Sunday morning as a parent low in the Gulf of Alaska swings an upper trough towards the PacNW. A warm front will arrive ahead of the trough late Sunday morning, with a stratiform rain spreading east across the forecast area through the evening hours.
231 AM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024 Rain will return to the area late Saturday night into Sunday with crossing low pressure. - Increasing precipitation chances accompany a mid to late week low pressure system that will cause falling temperature.
Steady southeast winds, lowering/thickening clouds, and rising dewpoints will keep lows in the lower 60s. 25 Another pleasant and seasonable weather day is occurring across the state this afternoon as we remain largely under high pressure. Brief upper ridging will overspread the area going into the second half of the weekend, putting an end to precipitation for Sunday.
For both today and Sunday, the highest pops will be during the afternoon when we have sufficient instability, high lapse rates, and moderate to high PWs, causing a few instances of gusty winds and some hail.
The thermal ridge amplifies today underneath largely zonal flow, with temperatures climbing approximately 10F for the plains/urban corridor and mostly 5 degrees or less in the mountains. Sunday will see further warming, with downslope flow and lee troughing on the increase.
Fog development again appears possible, if not likely, tonight into early Sunday morning given the subsidence behind the low, light winds, and abundant low- level moisture.
The surface pressure pattern will remain weak through the afternoon, but we will see a return flow pattern set up later Saturday afternoon through Sunday morning ahead of the next low pressure system. An area of low pressure and associated cold front should progress eastward across the region Sunday afternoon through the evening hours.
1248 AM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024 High pressure will be in control much of the weekend.
GOES Satellite and regional radar imagery early this morning shows a trough of low pressure moving onshore in Washington. This trough will move across the Northern Rockies by mid-afternoon, with scattered showers developing through the evening hours.
250 AM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024 Canadian high pressure across the area will move offshore late today and tonight.
354 AM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024 High pressure will move off the coast this evening as quiet and slightly cooler weather continues through the weekend. A cold front may move through the area by late in the work week. High-pressure ridging from Western New York to South Carolina will shift off the coast by 12 UTC Sunday. Temperatures will remain just below average for one more day, with highs ranging from the lower 80s at the coast to 82Â°-84Â° inland. Lows Sunday night will range from the middle 50s in interior sections of Southeast North Carolina to the lower to middle 60s along the coast and interior Northeast South Carolina. Clouds are on the rise, with high pressure shifting further offshore, and setting up some healthy return flow. The cooler airmass sticks around, with highs only in the lower 80s.
However this may not do much good for preventing severe weather this afternoon as models show moisture pushing west against the mountains ahead of the cooler air. The moist air will outrun the cooler and more stable air allowing for afternoon heating and an approaching disturbance will destabilize the atmosphere causing severe storms to develop in the mountains and progress east. Warmer temperatures are expected behind the dryline tomorrow though highs should be near normal for this time of year.
1027 PM MDT Fri May 31 2024 - Warmer over the weekend with daily chances for showers and thunderstorms. Water vapor shows weak troughing across the Northern Tier beneath a nearly stationary low over northern SASK/Manitoba. Warm advection ensues on Saturday as weak trof axis shifts east, with highs into the 70s to near 80. A stronger wave moves in for Sunday, with associated cold front pushing through in the morning to early afternoon. Highs Sunday will reach well into the 80s at least across our eastern 1/3rd of zones east of the cold front.
1239 AM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024 High pressure and dry conditions will continue through Saturday. Temperatures were touched up to better match observations as it was a mixed bag of warmer and cooler than expected locations. High pressure remains over the region through the period with mostly clear skies. However, low temperatures will be 3 to 5 degrees warmer than last night, so no frost is expected. High pressure will remain over the area Saturday will mostly sunny once again with lighter winds and high temperatures a bit warmer than today, with most areas reaching well into the 70s. High pressure/ridging will push east of the region on Sunday.
Only updates that were made were to account for ongoing trends with temps a little warmer than forecasted. Rain chances will continue to inch upward Saturday night, especially in northwest Georgia where proximity to the upper level trough will be better.
139 AM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024 High pressure will bring mostly clear and warm weather for much of the upcoming weekend along with low humidity.
357 AM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024 High pressure will build across the area through the day today before beginning to slide offshore Sunday. High pressure will continue to be overhead this morning and throughout the day today with light northwest flow becoming more southerly by the end of the day. By Sunday, high pressure will begin to move further offshore with a weak area of low pressure moving in from the Ohio Valley.
Broad area of low pressure across the region will aid in the development of gusty south to southwest winds today and Sunday.
Showers and some embedded thunderstorms will continue to gradually spread across the Mid State through the day as a large low pressure trough moves east from the Ms Valley Valley. The coverage of showers will be generally scattered tonight into Sunday, and most areas will dry out by Sunday afternoon as the upper level trough moves east of our area.
TODAY (SATURDAY): A stationary boundary will continue to slowly meander across the northwestern part of the state before becoming a weak cold front and progressing across the state from northwest to southeast.
Rain should start to lower in coverage later this afternoon as the trough axis shifts east of the area, removing the better synoptic lift from the Tennessee Valley. With cloudy skies and rain expected today, highs will be limited to the low to mid 70s this afternoon.