Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
345 AM EDT Sat Jun 21 2025 Heat and humid will increase as a mid level ridge builds into the area. Mid level ridge will begin to build into the region today.
1136 PM EDT Fri Jun 20 2025 Low pressure will exit across the Maritimes overnight. High pressure will build into the area on Saturday.
Much cooler with below normal temperatures for the interior.
936 PM PDT Fri Jun 20 2025 Gusty westerly winds over the mountains and into the deserts through Saturday with cooler conditions and a more extensive marine layer low cloud coverage.
1053 PM PDT Fri Jun 20 2025 - Big pattern change heading into the weekend with much cooler temperatures and rain showers.
Updated at 129 AM CDT Sat Jun 21 2025 - Slightly cooler with increasing chances for rain along and west of the Pecos River this weekend.
258 AM EDT Sat Jun 21 2025 A weakening cold front will dissipate over the coast this weekend. A strong mid and upper ridge will build in over the eastern United States this weekend and during the upcoming week with a significant warming trend. Key Messages/Highlights: *Patchy dense fog possible early this morning and late tonight *Temps near to slightly above normal through tonight *Max heat indices today mainly in the mid 90s Confidence: *Moderate to High Details: A stationary front across the area this morning will dissipate today with high pressure at the low-mid levels strengthening across the area. Temps are expected to be near to slightly above normal, with highs today generally around 90 around the coast and low/mid 90s inland, with lows tonight mainly in the lower 70s, except mid 70s along the coast.
This is along the elevated warm front that the NAM 3km and HRRR highlighted during the past several model runs. - The heat is here The aforementioned warm front will usher in hotter air for the next few days. Dewpoints will climb into the lower to mid 70s today which will create apparent temperatures around 100.
Latest satellite imagery and anaylsis depicts building mid/upper ridging over the SE U. this morning, with surface ridging extending across the area from the W Atlantic. ridging centered over the N Gulf, as evidenced via recent ACARS soundings depicting northerly mid level flow, while ACARS and KTBW VAD data depict established low level easterlies in response to the surface ridging.
1141 PM CDT Fri Jun 20 2025 - Upper High to keep rain chances at a minimum through Saturday with hot and humid conditions as max afternoon heat index values will be around 100-106 degrees.
A very similar setup for Saturday, with a broad area of high pressure to the north over Kentucky attempting to build south into the region, largely suppressing convection across the Tennessee Valley. With ample sunshine in a humid environment, temperatures will reach the lower 90s in most locations.
An upper air level high pressure center over the mid south will amplify to the northeast during this period. With a deepening broad upper level trough across the western U. (06Z TAFS) VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period as upper level ridging settles over the mid south through the weekend.
141 AM EDT Sat Jun 21 2025 A weakening cold front will dissipate over the coast into this weekend. A strong ridge of high pressure will then build in over the eastern U. Lows in the lower 70s with highs in the lower 90s. Mid to upper ridge will build over the region with steady height rises.
Read on for further details: A more typical summer regime is expected to persist through the end of the period with high pressure dominating over the area. Southerly flow is retained in the low levels on the western side of an 850mb high, which means our moisture will be sticking around. The high heat and humidity also means a decent chance for rain and storms remains throughout the period.
(This evening through Saturday) This afternoon, skies were sunny to partly cloudy across west central Texas with temperatures in the low 90s and dewpoints in the mid 60s. High pressure at the surface and aloft was located along the central gulf coast while low pressure was developing over the central Plains. Otherwise, high temperatures should be in the low to mid 90s.
High temperatures will top out in the lower to middle 90s. The hottest weather of the season will develop over the next few days as high temperatures climb into the lower to middle 90s and peak afternoon heat index readings reach 100-105 degrees.
- Ongoing precipitation chances through the weekend with much cooler temperatures.
1255 AM CDT Sat Jun 21 2025 Upper ridging dominates the synoptic pattern across the forecast area with generally isolated to locally scattered showers and storms during the mid to late afternoon hours, primarily in the vicinity of the sea breeze boundary. Temperatures remain warm in the lower to middle 90's for highs with lows in the lower to middle 70's. MM/25 The diurnal pattern continues through the period as a large upper high pressure area dominates the eastern half of the U. Temperatures will average up to 5 degrees above normal through the extended, with highs in the middle 90s inland and the lower 90s along the beaches and barrier islands. Low temperatures interior areas will be in the lower to middle 70s and the upper 70s along the beaches and barrier islands.
An upper level low is located over the area this morning. This low will slowly shift eastward late today into early Sunday. Then, as the low moves east, showers will taper off Sunday morning and expect high temperatures to warm to near normal.
919 AM EDT Sat Jun 21 2025 A weakening cold front will dissipate over the coast today. A strong mid and upper ridge will build in over the eastern United States this weekend and during the upcoming week with a significant warming trend. Key Messages/Highlights: *Patchy dense fog possible early this morning and late tonight *Temps near to slightly above normal through tonight *Max heat indices today mainly in the mid 90s Confidence: *Moderate to High Details: A stationary front across the area this morning will dissipate today with high pressure at the low-mid levels strengthening across the area. Temps are expected to be near to slightly above normal, with highs today generally around 90 around the coast and low/mid 90s inland, with lows tonight mainly in the lower 70s, except mid 70s along the coast.
231 AM PDT Sat Jun 21 2025 Cooler with extensive marine layer low clouds today. Otherwise cooler today as an upper level trough moves through with highs around 10-15 degrees below normal inland.
The synoptic pattern is defined by stout upper-level ridging currently over the Midwestern Region of the U. At the surface, high pressure dominates the southeast U. Highs today are anticipated to range in the 90s with dew points in the low 70s.
High pressure aloft will be situated over the Tennessee Valley through tonight, with an upper level trough moving into the Pacific Northwest. Temperatures will be near or slightly below normal for this time of year, with afternoon highs in the low to mid 90s. Breezy conditions will continue tonight, with overnight lows in the low to mid 70s.
536 AM CDT Sat Jun 21 2025 Updated at 535 AM CDT Sat Jun 21 2025 - Slightly cooler with increasing chances for rain along and west of the Pecos River this weekend. Mid level ridging will continue to shift east opening the door for deep moisture return across the western half of our region. The big change from yesterday to this afternoon will be the increase in convection we will see across the higher terrain. Further east across the Lower Trans Pecos and Permian Basin, a strengthening low level jet will lead to gusty south winds and even some patchy blowing dust. Showers and thunderstorms will first develop across the higher terrain by mid afternoon before moving north and east.
A dry trough will continue to deliver gusty winds and critical fire weather conditions today into Sunday. Look for some relief from the recent heat as a cooler air mass moves over Arizona. A dry trough will continue to deliver southwest winds of 15-25 mph gusting to 35-50 mph today. The higher values shown will be mainly from the Mogollon Rim northward.
(Today and tonight) The forecast remains on track with an upper level low tracking into the Great Basin, deepening the larger upper level trough.
From synopsis, high pressure over the eastern seaboard will gradually build over the next few days.
We'll remain placed on the western periphery of a strong upper ridge within a stout low-level warm advection regime. When combined with temperatures in the low/mid 90s, heat index values will range from about 97-103, and therefore will remain shy of Heat Advisory criteria.
702 AM CDT Sat Jun 21 2025 An upper ridge will continue across the area through the near term with a summer pattern of isolated to scattered showers and storms. Temperatures remain warm in the lower to middle 90s for highs with lows in the lower to middle 70s. /13 An upper ridge will continue through the week across the eastern half of the U. Temperatures will average up to 5 degrees above normal through the extended, with highs in the middle 90s inland and the lower 90s along the beaches and barrier islands. Low temperatures interior areas will be in the lower to middle 70s and the upper 70s along the beaches and barrier islands.
- Cooler midweek with additional chances for showers/ storms. Slightly cooler conditions can be expected near the lakes and where cloud cover lingers, though it will still be uncomfortably hot and humid region-wide.
High pressure is still going to be the dominating feature, and will evolve to encompass virtually all of the eastern U. Moisture undulations will be able to travel along the outer edge of the high, and the timing of these undulations will determine when our rainfall chances increase. From synopsis, high pressure over the eastern seaboard will gradually build over the next few days.
546 AM CDT Sat Jun 21 2025 - Upper High to keep rain chances at a minimum today with hot and humid conditions as max afternoon heat index values will be around 100-106 degrees. - The upper level high will begin to move away from the forecast area on Sunday with rain chances increasing.
626 AM EDT Sat Jun 21 2025 A weakening cold front will dissipate over the coast today. A strong mid and upper ridge will build in over the eastern United States this weekend and during the upcoming week with a significant warming trend. Key Messages/Highlights: *Patchy dense fog possible early this morning and late tonight *Temps near to slightly above normal through tonight *Max heat indices today mainly in the mid 90s Confidence: *Moderate to High Details: A stationary front across the area this morning will dissipate today with high pressure at the low-mid levels strengthening across the area. Temps are expected to be near to slightly above normal, with highs today generally around 90 around the coast and low/mid 90s inland, with lows tonight mainly in the lower 70s, except mid 70s along the coast.
Best chance for an isolated shower/tstorm this afternoon will be along the terrain where orographic lift can help overcome subsidence associated with high pressure dominating the locale.
* Much cooler today and tonight with freeze and frost warnings in effect for portions of northern and central Nevada tonight and into early Sunday morning. (Today through next Saturday) WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Robust upper low continues to influence the Great Basin this weekend. Not expecting any significant rainfall accumulations and the high terrain will stand the best chance of observing accumulations of 0. In the wake of a passing cold front, northwesterly winds with gusts of 20 to 30 kts are expected at all terminals today, though KTPH can expect higher gusts of up to 40 kts. 10 inch will be over the high terrain. Cooler temperatures also present this afternoon.
The highest chances can be expected by the latter part of the week as a wave moves into the area bringing PWATs to the 2.
629 AM EDT Sat Jun 21 2025 Heat and humid will increase as a mid level ridge builds into the area. Mid level ridge will begin to build into the region today. Mid and upper level ridge will build into the area offering increased heat and humidity Sunday. Dry conditions to persist with high temperatures on Sunday generally in the lower 90s. These temperatures combined with dewpoints in the lower 70s to produce afternoon heat indices between 100 and 105 degrees.
- Unseasonably hot temperatures again for today with highs a couple degrees cooler for Sunday, but still above normal for this time of year. Water vapor imagery currently shows an upper low over the Pacific Northwest with a weaker upper impulse sliding across the Northern Plains. Meanwhile, upper ridging is in place across the Southern Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley. At the surface, lee troughing is situated from Western Nebraska into eastern CO. On Sunday, upper low is expected to track over the Northern Intermountain and across the Northern Rockies Sunday night.
Aloft, high pressure draped across the southeastern United States at the mid-levels of the atmosphere will move northward heading into Sunday.
A wet and cooler weather pattern will continue into today as an upper level low moves through Western Washington.
430 AM CDT Sat Jun 21 2025 An upper ridge will continue across the area through the near term with a summer pattern of isolated to scattered showers and storms. Temperatures remain warm in the lower to middle 90s for highs with lows in the lower to middle 70s. /13 An upper ridge will continue through the week across the eastern half of the U. Temperatures will average up to 5 degrees above normal through the extended, with highs in the middle 90s inland and the lower 90s along the beaches and barrier islands. Low temperatures interior areas will be in the lower to middle 70s and the upper 70s along the beaches and barrier islands.
(Today through Sunday night) An uptick in weather activity begins this weekend as the Panhandles will be sandwiched between upper level troughing over the western CONUS and ridging over the eastern CONUS.
Temperatures will be near to slightly below normal with afternoon highs in the low to mid 90s with overnight lows in the mid to upper 70s.
952 AM EDT Sat Jun 21 2025 Heat and humid will increase as a mid level ridge builds into the area. Mid and upper level ridge will build into the area offering increased heat and humidity Sunday. Dry conditions to persist with high temperatures on Sunday generally in the lower 90s. These temperatures combined with dewpoints in the lower 70s to produce afternoon heat indices between 100 and 105 degrees.
Expect diurnal cumulus once again with temperatures a bit warmer than today.
- The approaching weather system swings a cold front through the region Saturday night and drops daytime highs Sunday 10 to 20 degrees from those of the previous day.
(This evening through Sunday night) Mid level high center over the deep south will retreat to near KY/TN through Sunday morning as a deep trough by June standards deepens across the Rockies. That said the west will be favored for the highest POPs and the NBM still appears a little low based on the moisture feed alone.
The deep tropical moisture moving around this ridging will move directly into our area bringing whatever is in this flow over us. This is not a good thing during the highest probabilities of tropical cyclone season such as August/September but these odds are not as high in June/July.
By late Sunday a large heat dome will remain entrenched over the southern and eastern CONUS, while a broad trough will have carved out over the west coast and Rockies.
Lows tonight will likely remain in the lower 80s. Madison was in the lower 90s though 3 AM and fell off into the 70s only because an outflow boundary stemming from the robust convection across northern MN sent cooler air south. There will not be convection tonight, so widespread lows in the lower 80s appear very likely. Given the hotter conditions today and no risk of outflow boundaries Sunday morning, it is expected to be warmer. Low level thermal fields will be perhaps a degree C cooler, so we'll see nearly identical highs tomorrow. A cold front will head east into eastern SD by late afternoon.
(Through Sunday) Currently, ridging in place over the eastern US is helping keep Daily highs 3-6 degrees above normal. The most visible boundary keeps the higher moisture west of a line stretching from just east of Tallahassee to just east of Albany.
Deep trough digging over Central California is providing the area with a significant cool-down. Both wind fire weather products are in effect during trough passage with conditions settling down on Sunday.
133 PM PDT Sat Jun 21 2025 Gusty westerly winds over the mountains and into the deserts this afternoon and evening with cooler conditions. For early in the upcoming week, a long wave troughing pattern will remain over the Western United States.
Model guidance remains steadfast on upper lvl ridging persisting acrs the Ern to SErn US thru much of the week ahead. Daily high temperatures in the low to mid 90s, alongside dewpoint values in the low to mid 70s wl result in daily afternoon heat index values near 100 to 105 degrees, with the most hazardous afternoon heat tending to favor the Ern half of the FA and greater MS River Delta region.
849 AM PDT Sat Jun 21 2025 Gusty westerly winds over the mountains and into the deserts today with cooler conditions and a more extensive marine layer low cloud coverage. High temperatures today are expected to be 3 to 7 degrees cooler than yesterday for most locations, up to 10 degrees cooler than yesterday in the High Desert. An upper level low passing through the Great Basin will increase the onshore pressure gradient. For early in the upcoming week, a long wave troughing pattern will remain over the Western United States.
The highest PWATs reside over the western half of the area today with a slightly drier conditions east. Low clouds will develop again early Sunday with lows from the low to mid 70s. If isolated activity were to form, the western half of the CWA continues to be favored in models where the highest moisture will reside.
1213 PM CDT Sat Jun 21 2025 Updated at 1212 PM CDT Sat Jun 21 2025 - Slightly cooler with increasing chances for rain along and west of the Pecos River this weekend. Mid level ridging will continue to shift east opening the door for deep moisture return across the western half of our region. The big change from yesterday to this afternoon will be the increase in convection we will see across the higher terrain. Further east across the Lower Trans Pecos and Permian Basin, a strengthening low level jet will lead to gusty south winds and even some patchy blowing dust. Showers and thunderstorms will first develop across the higher terrain by mid afternoon before moving north and east.
At least temporarily, this will push our recent "ridge runner" convection northward into Canada. Hazy, hot and humid on Sunday with highs in the upper 80s to mid 90s, slightly cooler near the lakes.
(This evening through Sunday) A wind advisory continues until 9 PM for portions of the Concho Valley, Big Country and Crockett country, as lee trough was bringing strong south winds gusting up to 40 mph. Except for possibly an isolated showers or two this afternoon, from Junction to Mason, Brady and San Saba; dry conditions are expected under upper ridging. Highs Sunday will be mainly in the lower 90s, with lows tonight in the lower 70s.
1223 PM CDT Sat Jun 21 2025 An upper ridge will continue across the area through the near term with a summer pattern of isolated to scattered showers and storms. Temperatures remain warm in the lower to middle 90s for highs with lows in the lower to middle 70s. /13 An upper ridge will continue through the week across the eastern half of the U. Temperatures will average up to 5 degrees above normal through the extended, with highs in the middle 90s inland and the lower 90s along the beaches and barrier islands. Low temperatures interior areas will be in the lower to middle 70s and the upper 70s along the beaches and barrier islands.
- Upper High to keep rain chances at a minimum today with hot and humid conditions as max afternoon heat index values will be around 100-103 degrees. - The upper level high will begin to move away from the forecast area tomorrow with rain chances increasing.
(This afternoon through Sunday night) The mid-level ridge that has dominated our weather recently continues to slowly weaken and move off to our east. This change is in response to the developing trough across the Pacific Northwest. This has promoted continued lee troughing across the great plains resulting in a strong southeast wind. The aforementioned trough continues to deepen as it proceeds into the northern Rocky Mountains by Sunday afternoon. Afternoon and evening thunderstorm chances increase as the trough approaches.
A few locations east of the Cascades could get close to freezing towards daybreak Sunday if there's enough clearing, but clearing tonight may be brief and not lasting for a significant amount of time.
DialH (Today and tonight) The forecast remains on track with an upper level low tracking into the Great Basin, deepening the larger upper level trough.
A strong high pressure system will be anchored over the Mid Atlantic for the weekend and through our work week. In this regime the highest rain shower chances are concentrated down in Southwest Florida but the whole west coast of FLorida in generally will have the risk of some thunderstorms in the late afternoon and evening hours.
Associated with the low is a stationary boundary that extends through the southern CWA and into northern Minnesota. Elsewhere, a upper-level trough has deepened over the Pacific Northwest and is slowly moving eastwards. Unlike Saturday, the associated cold front will be a more sufficient forcing for convective initiation. An expected strong CAP could greatly inhibit initiation, but the current forecast is that the cold front will be able to overcome it. Once the cold front passes through, temperatures will drop considerably and leave the next few days much cooler.
Mid and upper level ridge will build into the area offering increased heat and humidity Sunday. Dry conditions to persist with high temperatures on Sunday generally in the lower 90s. These temperatures combined with dewpoints in the lower 70s to produce afternoon heat indices between 100 and 105 degrees.
A stout upper-level ridge (2 to 3 standard deviations above normal) will be centered over the Ohio River Valley or Mid- South through most of the week ahead, though it will shift around and gradually weaken by late week. Subsident influences from the ridge aloft and continued warm, moist advection from the Gulf Coast will keep temps warming into the 90s each day and overnight lows around 70-75 (near or slightly warmer than normal). Complicating that forecast though is the fact that easterly disturbances south of the ridge axis along the Gulf Coast will support afternoon showers and thunderstorms each day.
135 PM EDT Sat Jun 21 2025 A weakening cold front will dissipate over the coast today. A strong mid and upper ridge will build in over the eastern United States this weekend and during the upcoming week with a significant warming trend. Key Messages/Highlights: *Patchy dense fog possible early this morning and late tonight *Temps near to slightly above normal through tonight *Max heat indices today mainly in the mid 90s Confidence: *Moderate to High Details: A stationary front across the area this morning will dissipate today with high pressure at the low-mid levels strengthening across the area. Temps are expected to be near to slightly above normal, with highs today generally around 90 around the coast and low/mid 90s inland, with lows tonight mainly in the lower 70s, except mid 70s along the coast.