Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
- Temperatures will trend cooler through the end of the week.
- Expect temperatures to return to near normal by midweek, with even cooler temperatures in store this weekend. So widespread subsidence should keep a lid on any convection today and tonight, and only isolated convection is in tomorrow's forecast, mainly for the higher elevations along the KY/VA border. Tomorrow, temperatures will be slightly warmer, but heat indices should still remain below 100F.
- Higher rain chances should arrive Monday night into Tuesday associated with a cold front. -Expect cooler and drier weather to end the week. Early this afternoon an upper level ridge was centered across north TX, with a ridge axis extending northeast across the mid MS River Valley. An upper level trough was moving onshore across the Pacific northwest. A surface warm front was lifting northward across northern SD into ND and western MN. Tonight through Monday: A weak mid-level perturbation will round the H5 ridge axis Tonight across NE and central IA. Monday afternoon will be hot and humid with highs in the lower to mid 90s.
As northwest flow sets up over the UP with ridging upstream, shower activity will decrease from west to east overnight tonight. Low temperatures wont fall far below the lower 60s tonight as abundant moisture remains and cloud cover lingers.
136 AM EDT Mon Aug 18 2025 A cold front will bring a round of showers and a few thunderstorms today, followed by cooler weather for the start of the work week.
(Today through next Monday) WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Current satellite imagery shows mostly clear skies across the forecast area, with a trough of low pressure situated along the west coast and high pressure over the southern U. Warm and dry conditions are expected today and Tuesday as high pressure gradually retrogrades over the western U.
primarily in the southeast with the highest humidity, the post-harvest wheat belt of north central Oklahoma, and the urban heat island of Oklahoma City.
Then on Tuesday the high pressure will begin to slide eastward and our temperatures will moderate a bit, maximum temperatures reach the lower to upper 70s. Increasing clouds and moisture will serve to keep Tuesday night warmer than the previous couple of nights though; lows will be in the 50s to around 60.
Overnight lows will bottom out generally in the lower 50s to upper 50s - the Seattle area will be around 60 F. Cooler conditions with cloudy skies and periods of showers along the coast will continue through the middle of the week as troughing continues offshore. A warmer and drier pattern will develop later in the week as high pressure builds over the southwestern US.
Afternoon RAP analysis has high pressure centered over Ontario, with ridging southward into the Great Lakes. Temperatures are staying on the chilly side, peaking only in the lower 60s lakeside and in the lower 70s inland. Showers and storms finally wrap up late Monday night into early Tuesday morning as the cold front moves in; by then, a widespread quarter- to half-inch of rain is expected across the area, but some spots may see higher totals of 0. This higher QPF would be possible especially where we can get multiple rounds of rainfall (as suggested by some of the CAMS). Otherwise, expect temperatures to come in a couple degrees warmer than today owing to weak warm advection; highs Monday reach into the upper 60s to lower 70s area-wide, falling back into the upper 50s and lower 60s Monday night.
(Today) High pressure at the surface and aloft controlled the area's general weather situation. So far under mostly clear skies, night-time temperatures have cooled only into the low/mid 70s with light winds. Dewpoints remaining in the lower 70s will produce heat index values from the upper 90s to 108 degrees (especially near and west of I-65). Warmer temperatures aloft will help suppress the development of convection today.
For the rest of northern Arizona, warm and dry conditions are expected as high pressure begins to strengthen over Colorado and New Mexico. Heights continue to rise as the nearly 596/597 dam ridge gradually strengthens and retrogrades through the week. Monsoonal moisture does look to increase each day, with the high setting up in a more favorable Four Corners high setup. While the moisture looks to be there, the only limiting favor looks to potentially be the strength of the ridge. By the end of the week though, the ridge looks to weaken some, which would help to allow for deeper convective development. Afternoon highs look to peak at around 5-10F above normal, with temperatures in the 80s F across the higher terrain and mid-90s F to mid-100s F in the lower elevations.
639 AM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025 - High pressure meandering around the region will bring about periods of on and off scattered showers and storms.
Troughing over the Pacific Northwest early this week gives way to high pressure building into the region from the Desert SW late this week. However, the building high pressure late this week will produce warmer temperatures as well as weak offshore flow.
- Expect temperatures to return to near normal by midweek, with even cooler temperatures in store this weekend. The heat today will be a bit more tolerable, with most locations across eastern Kentucky expected to reach heat index values in the low to mid 90s this afternoon. So widespread subsidence should keep a lid on any convection today and tonight, and only isolated convection is in tomorrow's forecast, mainly for the higher elevations along the KY/VA border. Tomorrow, temperatures will be slightly warmer, but heat indices should still remain below 100F.
- Warmer and drier weather expected through mid week.
The highest heat index values will be around 110F along the Mississippi river where they have been this past weekend.
The highest temperatures will be primarily along and west of I-65, where we have a Heat Advisory in effect through 8 PM Tuesday evening. There will be little relief overnight as low temperatures drop into the low to mid 70s.
High pressure will bring a warming and drying trend to the region through Tuesday.
610 AM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025 Despite some subtle differences, the forecast over the next 7 days continues to feature a weak mid-level high pressure over the Central Plains shifting westward and expanding across the Four Corners region by Tuesday.
This thunderstorm complex is visible currently on satellite and radar over northwestern Iowa and southwestern Minnesota and will likely track along the 850 mb warm front, following the northern edge of the instability gradient. As with previous forecast discussions, the northern extent of this storm complex will largely be dictated by the warm front, which at this time will likely stay south enough that the northern edge of the storms will just touch into portions of central and east-central Wisconsin, roughly along Highway 10 or so.
Those will be the first of several days of mostly clear skies as the upper level trough pushes out of the area, and upper level ridging attempt to push in from the east. From mid week on, the upper level "Four-Corners" ridge will strengthen and nudge farther into our area with continued dry weather and the redevelopment of the coastal thermal trough.
726 AM EDT Mon Aug 18 2025 High pressure builds across the eastern Great Lakes region from the north today.
640 AM EDT Mon Aug 18 2025 Cooler air will move into the region today behind the departing front, bringing much more comfortable temperatures through mid week.
1004 AM EDT Mon Aug 18 2025 A cold front will bring a round of showers and a few thunderstorms today, followed by cooler weather for the start of the work week.
259 AM PDT Mon Aug 18 2025 High pressure will build this week, bringing a warming trend and less marine layer cloud cover.
Low temperatures are forecast to drop into the low to mid 70s, which is not much relief from the daytime highs in the 90s we continue to experience.
It will be dry with warmer afternoon temperatures, but still near seasonal norms.
An upper ridge will expand eastward from the plains states into the mid Atlantic states through Tuesday.
234 PM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025 - Much welcomed return of dry weather following the passage of a cold front. We'll keep a slight chance for an isolated shower or two across eastern MN/western WI in the short term, though those chances will cease following the ongoing cold frontal passage. Afternoon highs will range from the low to mid 80s across south/west MN to the upper 70s east of I-35 and north of I-94.
254 PM MDT Mon Aug 18 2025 - Hot and dry conditions remain in place under high pressure. High pressure is building in but just enough moisture and instability remains in the atmosphere to allow some convection to fire. Tomorrow, the San Juans have a 20% chance to see some isolated convection with just some Cu buildup expected for the higher terrain.
Some thunderstorms have already developed off the higher terrain and northeastern Plains in Colorado.
151 PM EDT Mon Aug 18 2025 Broad high pressure will remain across the Northeast through Tuesday. Dry weather will return late in the week as high pressure builds into the region. High pressure will maintain fair weather through tonight, although there will be some increase in higher level clouds. High pressure shifting into eastern Canada will continue to maintain dry weather through Tuesday, although there may be a few showers that may move into the Niagara Frontier late in the day as a mid level trough approaches the region.
High pressure, currently centered over the New Mexico/Colorado border, will slowly build westward over the coming days becoming centered over the southwest United States. In addition, with high pressure building over Arizona, hot daytime temperatures will return.
- Cooler and dry through the rest of the week with highs in the low to mid 80s. Even cooler by this weekend. Meanwhile, central to northern Iowa has remained in the low to mid 70s through the afternoon. The past several mornings have seen isolated fog development north of the boundary in cooler air and this is likely to continue on Tuesday morning. Temperatures Tuesday through the end of the week with be in the low to mid 80s with dewpoints in the 60s, feel more comfortable than this past weekend.
234 PM EDT Mon Aug 18 2025 High pressure builds east over Ontario this evening as low pressure move into the region from the west.
Issued by National Weather Service Pocatello ID 926 AM MDT Mon Aug 18 2025 Hot and dry conditions will prevail today under mostly clear skies as the Four Corners ridge begins to build northward. The ridge will strengthen further on Tuesday, reaching peak amplification.
Today will be the coolest day of the forecast period, as a ridge of high pressure over the southern states expands westward.
130 PM EDT Mon Aug 18 2025 High pressure builds across the eastern Great Lakes region from the north today.
Local area will remain loosely under the influence of high pressure aloft which will result in somewhat delayed onset of convective initiation of scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms.
Some clouds have started building more recently over the Lower Keys, but nothing stands out from the crowd just yet. A col region is currently over the Keys promoting light and variable breezes between deep ridging over southeast CONUS and Hurricane Erin currently located 110 miles north of Grand Turk Island. This notably dry layer found in the lower to mid levels of the sounding will hinder convective development around our CWA today. From synopsis, the Keys are now in a col region between ridging over the southeast US and Hurricane Erin in the western North Atlantic resulting in light to gentle easterly breezes across our waters.
Some clouds have started building more recently over the Lower Keys, but nothing stands out from the crowd just yet. A col region is currently over the Keys promoting light and variable breezes between deep ridging over southeast CONUS and Hurricane Erin currently located 110 miles north of Grand Turk Island. This notably dry layer found in the lower to mid levels of the sounding will hinder convective development around our CWA today. From synopsis, the Keys are in a col region between ridging over the southeast US and Hurricane Erin in the western North Atlantic resulting in now light to gentle northwest to northerly breezes across our waters.
145 PM EDT Mon Aug 18 2025 High pressure will track from southeast Canada today into northern New England tonight, providing continued dry and cool conditions into Tuesday.
- The break in the heat appears to be brief as the upper-level ridge axis out west will begin to expand back eastward this weekend. This extended streak of above average August heat will continue to dominate the weather headlines through mid week as the strength of the upper-level ridge axis holds serve for a few more days. The only short-term heat relief will be in the form of very isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms, diurnally driven in nature and largely oriented around the eastern periphery of the ridge axis with better coverage near the coast and northward into our far southern and eastern zones. Aside from this low potential, there isn't anything to quell the heat as high temperatures will surge into the upper 90s to lower triple digits once again on Tuesday.
658 PM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025 - High pressure meandering around the region will bring about periods of on and off scattered showers and storms.
913 PM EDT Mon Aug 18 2025 Broad high pressure will remain across the Northeast through Tuesday. Dry weather will return late in the week as high pressure builds into the region. High pressure will maintain fair weather through tonight, although there will be some increase in higher level clouds. High pressure shifting into eastern Canada will continue to maintain dry weather through Tuesday, although clouds will thicken through the day, with a few showers possibly moving into the Niagara Frontier late in the day as a mid level trough approaches the region.
624 PM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025 An upper ridge will expand eastward from the plains states into the mid Atlantic states through Tuesday.
High pressure will track from southeast Canada into northern New England tonight, providing continued dry and cool conditions into Tuesday.
Outflow boundaries have stabilized the lower levels and additional storm development outside of the southwestern Texas Panhandle appears low the rest of the night.
610 PM EDT Mon Aug 18 2025 Broad high pressure will remain across the Northeast through Tuesday. Dry weather will return late in the week as high pressure builds into the region. High pressure will maintain fair weather through tonight, although there will be some increase in higher level clouds. High pressure shifting into eastern Canada will continue to maintain dry weather through Tuesday, although there may be a few showers that may move into the Niagara Frontier late in the day as a mid level trough approaches the region.
Cooler conditions with cloudy skies and periods of showers along the coast will continue through the middle of the week as troughing continues offshore. A warmer and drier pattern will develop into the weekend as high pressure builds over the southwestern US.
High pressure builds east over Ontario this evening as low pressure move into the region from the west.
Today and Tuesday, the upper trough with a stable southwest flow will be present which will keep afternoon temperatures in check with values near seasonal norms for the interior.
An upper-level composite analysis this evening reveals two dominant features on the synoptic scale: 1) Hurricane Erin over the Atlantic just east of the Bahamas, and centered near the latitude of the Florida Keys; and 2) a deep layer mean anticyclone centered over the mid-Mississippi River Valley.
(Tonight) Rather benign weather tonight as we remain under high pressure influence from the NE. Storms that developed along the SE edge of said high pressure today in NE AL and NW GA have drifted south into central AL leaving us with a clear and dry forecast for the remainder of the night.
556 PM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025 - Much welcomed return of dry weather following the passage of a cold front. We'll keep a slight chance for an isolated shower or two across eastern MN/western WI in the short term, though those chances will cease following the ongoing cold frontal passage. Afternoon highs will range from the low to mid 80s across south/west MN to the upper 70s east of I-35 and north of I-94.
534 PM MDT Mon Aug 18 2025 - Hot and dry conditions remain in place under high pressure. High pressure is building in but just enough moisture and instability remains in the atmosphere to allow some convection to fire. Tomorrow, the San Juans have a 20% chance to see some isolated convection with just some Cu buildup expected for the higher terrain.
With the high CAPEs and low LCL's, damaging wind gusts and a tornado are the prime concerns. Low temps in the lower 70s to upper 60s.
A transition in our weather pattern will commence on Wednesday as upper troughing begins to deepen over the eastern CONUS, sending a summer-type front southward toward the area.
159 AM EDT Tue Aug 19 2025 High pressure builds east over Ontario this evening as low pressure move into the region from the west. A warm front will lift north Tuesday into Wednesday with the cold front moving through on Wednesday.
Tuesday will be fairly mild as the anticipated late week ridging and high pressure regime sets in.
- Expect drier and warmer weather today and Wednesday, with moderate to high heat impacts possible in the afternoon.
The region remains under the influence of a weak sfc ridging. However, the main 500 mb high ridge that has been a fixture over the area will continue to shift further westward across the SW CONUS today. This westward shift will allow for deepening troughiness in our area, providing a more favorable environment for lift and precipitation. The best chances for rain/storms will be after sunrise, with the highest probability for areas along and south of I-10 after mid-late morning. A pattern change is expected with the arrival of a weak/slow-moving cold front. A cold front in August generally brings less hot conditions and rain/storm chances.
High pressure will bring a warming and drying trend to the region through Tuesday. A nearly 600dam ridge will set up across the Four Corners area today, bringing a very hot, dry airmass to the region. While monsoonal moisture is pinned to the Arizona/Mexico border at the current time, this moisture will quickly advect around the ridge into the western Great Basin later today and begin to spread into the mid-levels over Utah by Wednesday.
It then dries out once again and turns slightly warmer for the end of the week into the first half of the upcoming weekend. 235 PM Update: High pressure will keep conditions dry through Tuesday. As the high pressure system moves to the east, a southerly return flow will develop which will allow for temperatures to be slightly warmer than today (highs in the mid 70s to lower 80s).
- A weak upper level ridge aloft and northerly flow will bring about hot and humid conditions through Wednesday with late in the afternoon thunderstorms which may bring locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds.
A cold front pushes through Wednesday and Wednesday night. Much stronger cold front arrives for the weekend, dropping temperatures significantly. Surface observations suggest the lower atmosphere decoupling this evening. Warm and mostly dry weather today will turn a bit hotter for Tuesday as high pressure shifts off to the east and southerly winds develop ahead of the next approaching front. Before that happens, however, we'll have a calm and mostly clear night once the diurnal cumulus field dissipates later this evening, with more valley fog tonight, likely spreading more into the lowlands compared to last night. Forecast highs tomorrow are 70s to lower 80s in the mountains, and upper 80s to mid-90s in the lowlands. A cold front will very slowly push southeastward through the region Wednesday and Wednesday night, providing for a chance of showers and thunderstorms.
151 AM MDT Tue Aug 19 2025 - An isolated storm or two can't be ruled out over the Black Hills today - Drier and warmer conditions expected Tuesday and Wednesday. Current water vapor imagery and upper air analysis depicts 500hpa ridge axis centered over the Rockies. At the sfc, broad high pressure sits centered over eastern CO. 500hpa ridge will remain overhead today resulting in warmer and drier conditions. Upper level ridge will take on a more positive tilt through the mid week with low level thermal ridge developing over the Northern Plains. Wednesday should be the hottest day of the week as the low thermal ridge sets up over the CWA with highs in the 90s to low 100s.
Lingering low level moisture will keep cloudy skies overhead before a subtle cold front ushers in an drier airmass Tuesday night into Wednesday. Look for slightly warmer temps tomorrow in the upper 60s to near 70.
330 AM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025 - Cloudy and cooler today, with areas of fog this morning mainly west of the Mississippi River.
- A cold front will pass through late tonight allowing temperatures to fall back toward normal levels. Another cold front will move through over the weekend significantly reducing temperatures and dropping humidity levels. The cold front will sag through the area from north to south late this afternoon through into tonight before shifting south of the area by early Wednesday morning.
157 AM EDT Tue Aug 19 2025 High pressure will maintain dry weather today. Scattered shower and thunderstorm chances will return tonight and Wednesday with a weak cold front. KEY MESSAGES: - Dry weather through today - Gusty southeasterly flow across the ridges --------------------------------------------------------------- Dry weather continues as high pressure remains anchored to the northeast. Weak low pressure to our west and high pressure to the northeast wedging down the Appalachians will tighten the pressure gradient early this morning, leading to some gusty southeasterly conditions across the ridges and foothills.
- Confidence continues to increase that moisture will return late this week, increasing chances of precipitation and bringing some cooler temperatures. High pressure will be in control for the next several days over the Four Corners region. Being located near the center of the high will keep winds light, limiting fire weather concerns. The high shifts just slightly tomorrow, allowing a bit more moisture to work into the San Juans. This means a slightly higher chance of showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon, 40-50% over the highest terrain.
307 AM EDT Tue Aug 19 2025 High pressure will cross the region through tonight, then begin to move east Wednesday.
The large circulation associated with Erin will disrupt the upper level flow over the eastern CONUS, with teleconnections helping to nudge the center of the big upper level ridge more to the west.
1124 PM MDT Mon Aug 18 2025 - Hot and dry conditions remain in place under high pressure. High pressure is building in but just enough moisture and instability remains in the atmosphere to allow some convection to fire. Tomorrow, the San Juans have a 20% chance to see some isolated convection with just some Cu buildup expected for the higher terrain. By Wednesday high pressure will be well established over the region therefore temperatures will be near record values.
Upper ridging remains in control of the forecast across the region maintaining deep layer northerly flow over the forecast area. As upper ridging slowly retrogrades westward by the end of the week, temperatures gradually cool to near normal featuring highs in the upper 80's to lower 90's. Overnight lows generally stay in the lower to middle 70's through the end of the week. Isolated to scattered showers and storms can be expected each day, increasing in coverage late week into the weekend thanks to the upper ridge shifting away from the area.