Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
630 AM EDT Sat Apr 13 2024 High pressure will build into the SE US through the weekend.
The interaction between the departing high pressure across the Gulf and the low pressure over the Sierra Madre will continue to produce an enhanced pressure gradient across the area. Mild conditions are expected tonight with lows in the 60s across much of Deep South Texas, except for the low 70s along the coast. Moistening in the low levels will allow a better opportunity for more low clouds.
Around 50 percent of the high resolution models depict shower-related wind gusts over 30 mph late Sunday afternoon in the Mission Valley extending up to Polson Bay.
508 AM EDT Sat Apr 13 2024 High pressure over the Lower Mississippi Valley will move east across the Gulf Coast region as low pressure tracks through New England.
613 AM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024 (Today and tonight) Warm and windy conditions will continue through today and into tonight as high pressure continues to build across West Central Texas and the pressure gradient remains tightened over the area.
This is due to surface ridging gradually transiting eastward across the area and approaching the Mississippi River valley by this afternoon, allowing for some southerly winds to return. This is due to robust troughing that makes its way across the Intermountain West, re- emerging across the southern Great Plains and creating a more significant severe weather threat across Central Oklahoma.
Satellite shows mostly sunny skies in the forecast area, and current temperatures along the island chain are in the low to mid 70s. Thereafter, high pressure will slide into the western Atlantic and remain through the remainder of the forecast period with peaks and lulls expected.
918 AM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024 A beautiful spring day is underway this morning with high pressure just to our east yielding mostly clear skies and light, variable winds.
431 AM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024 (Today and tonight) A little warmer today (lower and middle 80s most areas) with strong south winds. Breezy conditions expected to continue over much of the forecast area tonight, with some weakening across northwest parts of Oklahoma closer to a weakening trough of low pressure.
731 AM EDT Sat Apr 13 2024 An upper-level ridge is starting to build in from the west as a trough axis propagates across New England. Regardless, values are in the lowest 10 percent, meaning today is unusually dry for this time of year. The upper-level pattern is flattening out and a broad upper-level ridge axis is expected to build over the Caribbean Sea and northward into the Gulf of Mexico.
A disturbance will move through Central California this weekend, resulting in cooler temperatures, a chance for rain in the San Joaquin Valley, and snow above 6,000 feet in the Sierra Nevada and Kern County Mountains. Strong wind potential continues today across the ridge tops of Central California. Satellite imagery shows the center some 200 miles west of the Bay Area as subtropical moisture is wrapping around the low. In addition, surface wind analysis shows the continuation of breezy conditions ahead of the cold front over Central California.
Mostly clear skies and afternoon temperatures in the lower 80s are expected. Temperatures this afternoon should warm into the lower 80s (about 5 degrees above normal) at most locations as rising mid-level heights with a strengthening ridge and abundant sunshine affect the area.
918 AM EDT Sat Apr 13 2024 High pressure in full control across the area and this feature will promote beautiful weather and comfortable humidity levels for any outdoor activities today, though RH values will drop to rather low values (mid 20s) this afternoon as this exceptionally dry air mass continues to build in. An upper-level ridge is starting to build in from the west as a trough axis propagates across New England. Regardless, values are in the lowest 10 percent, meaning today is unusually dry for this time of year. The upper-level pattern is flattening out and a broad upper-level ridge axis is expected to build over the Caribbean Sea and northward into the Gulf of Mexico.
620 AM EDT Sat Apr 13 2024 High pressure over the Lower Mississippi Valley will move east across the Gulf Coast region as low pressure tracks through New England.
Afternoon temperatures are expected to remain above average with highs reaching the lower 80s.
After last night's chilly temps with lows in the upper 30s and 40s, tonight will be much warmer due to a strengthening LLJ up to 35 knots at 2k ft by 12Z - with lows only dropping into the 50s to around 60. Even warmer temperatures are anticipated on Sunday as an upper ridge builds northward from the western Gulf, and highs should reach the mid 70s to low 80s areawide.
This area of low pressure is progged to continue to deepen through the day.
A weather system moving through the region will bring widespread gusty winds today followed by cooler temperatures and some light shower activity Sunday.
1200 PM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024 (Rest of Today) Strong NW flow aloft in place over the TN Valley will gradually weaken throughout the day, as the axis of a mid/upper-level longwave trough axis lifts northeastward across New England. In the lower-levels, a ridge will remain positioned over the north- central Gulf of Mexico for much of the day, resulting in a relaxed pressure gradient and light/variable winds this morning (which may transition to a slightly stronger SW flow this afternoon as the ridge begins to drift eastward). With a very dry tropospheric column noted in forecast soundings, we expect abundant sunshine, with highs ranging from the l70s atop the higher ridges of northeast AL/southern TN to the u70s-l80s in northwest AL.
A weak cold front Sunday night. High pressure in control across the area, with dry air in place. Tonight, expect rather mild conditions, with slightly warmer temperatures on ridge tops where higher winds will exist, but winds should increase area wide towards morning. On Sunday, there could be a brief shower or just some sprinkles early in the day as a warm front pushes east, along with increasing gusty winds as the day progresses and pressure gradient tightens across the area. Otherwise, later Sunday, a weak cold front will push south towards the CWA late in the period, ending up in northern SE Ohio zones towards the end or after the end of the near term period. Above normal temperatures Sunday afternoon will aid in developing showers and thunderstorms later Sunday in advance of a weak cold front.
Lacy (Sunday through Saturday) Mid-level ridging will slide over the Plains on Sunday ahead of the next storm system.
1124 AM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024 (Today and tonight) A little warmer today (lower and middle 80s most areas) with strong south winds. Breezy conditions expected to continue over much of the forecast area tonight, with some weakening across northwest parts of Oklahoma closer to a weakening trough of low pressure.
WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO As of 1 PM, light showers were moving into LA County as the low pressure system continues to spin off the coast of Northern California, just west of San Fransisco. 30" in the coastal and valley zones, with the higher end of the range in Orange and San Bernardino Counties, and the lower amounts in San Diego County. A few hundredths of an inch is all that will fall in the High Deserts. The Lower Deserts will remain dry. The higher values listed are most likely in the San Gabriel Mountains.
Strong early summer ridging continues to bring very warm conditions across Wyoming.
A disturbance will move through Central California this weekend, resulting in cooler temperatures, a chance for rain in the San Joaquin Valley, and snow above 6,000 feet in the Sierra Nevada and Kern County Mountains. Strong wind potential continues today across the ridge tops of Central California. There may be a brief window for light snowfall over Tejon Pass early tomorrow morning, but most of the moisture associated with this cold front will have pushed out of the area by then.
(18Z TAFS) Some light, patchy fog remains possible late tonight into early Sunday morning for areas generally north of I-10 and south of the Highway 84 corridor.
High pressure sliding into the western Atlantic will keep weather dry through the midweek, but prevailing easterly breezes will moderate temperatures slowly as well as bringing dewpoints up each day.
The forecast area is positioned between longwave troughing off the Mid Atlantic Coast and amplified longwave ridging over much of the Plains. Highs today will range from the mid 70s far east to the low 80s far west and southwest. Lows will range from the upper 40s east to the low 50s west. A deep upper low will move east over much of California and Nevada during the day on Sunday. Mid-level ridging over much of the Plains will amplify further in response with a west to northwest flow aloft over our area. High temperatures will be in the lower 80s areawide.
235 PM EDT Sat Apr 13 2024 (This afternoon through Sunday) while a ridge builds in across the Plains this afternoon, the forecast area will be under the influence of northwesterly flow. Amid large scale subsidence and abundant sunshine, temperatures will be a bit warmer Sunday where most locations outside of elevated terrain will reach the low to mid 80s.
Otherwise, enjoy the sun this afternoon since it'll help to warm the unseasonably chilly temps in the low to mid 40s north, and upper 40s to mid 50s across the Central Mtns and Susq Valley. Forecast remains consistent with previous for this timeframe as conditions trend from clear to partly cloudy tonight before POPs ramp up from northwest to southeast ahead of a cold front pushing southeast from the Great Lakes.
High pressure at the surface will maintain light winds through the period. Temperatures tonight will be rather chilly with lows ranging from the lower and middle 50s over interior areas to the upper 50s near the coast. Temperatures will warm right back into the lower and middle 80s by Sunday afternoon with plenty of sunshine expected.
Short term ridging behind these showers along with cold air advection aloft will clear out remaining cloud cover as overnight lows drop into the low to mid 40s. Fire weather is not a major concern as winds will be only in mid teens gusting near 20mph in the afternoon remaining NW while RH bottoms out in the low 20s.
Will have mild conditions through Sunday as upper low moves to south. Will be slightly cooler with more cloud cover expected with highs in the 60s mainly with some near 70 in the Snake River Plain and Magic Valley.
258 PM EDT Sat Apr 13 2024 High pressure will allow dry weather to persist tonight into Sunday. Low pressure tracking across the Great Lakes will bring a threat for showers and thunderstorms Sunday afternoon into Sunday night.
A low level jet of 30 to 40 knots is forecast to develop late this evening, which may result in an increase in winds to 15 to 20 mph, especially in the higher elevations across the forecast area. Highs on Sunday will be hot, with most locations topping out in the low to mid 90s.
1220 PM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024 (Today and tonight) Warm and windy conditions will continue through today and into tonight as high pressure continues to build across West Central Texas and the pressure gradient remains tightened over the area.
1249 PM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024 (Today through Sunday) High clouds will continue to move around weak upper level ridging across south-central Texas today. In the low levels, breezy southeast winds will develop today, with gusts to around 30 mph, as low level moisture gradually increases through the short term. High temperatures today are forecast to be in the low to mid 80s east to low 90s along the Rio Grande. Lows tonight slightly warmer, in the mid 60s to near 70s. Highs Sunday a couple of degrees warmer than today.
(Rest of Today) Strong NW flow aloft in place over the TN Valley will gradually weaken throughout the day, as the axis of a mid/upper-level longwave trough axis lifts northeastward across New England. In the lower-levels, a ridge will remain positioned over the north- central Gulf of Mexico for much of the day, resulting in a relaxed pressure gradient and light/variable winds this morning (which may transition to a slightly stronger SW flow this afternoon as the ridge begins to drift eastward). With a very dry tropospheric column noted in forecast soundings, we expect abundant sunshine, with highs ranging from the l70s atop the higher ridges of northeast AL/southern TN to the u70s-l80s in northwest AL.
The warming trend continues into the new week as mid level ridging in the Gulf of Mexico builds across the Florida peninsula.
A low pressure system off the coast of Northern California, just west of San Fransisco will influence our weather this weekend. 30" in the coastal and valley zones, with the higher end of the range in Orange and San Bernardino Counties, and the lower amounts in San Diego County. A few hundreds of an inch is all that will fall in the High Deserts. The Lower Deserts will remain dry.
/NEW/ /This afternoon through Sunday night/ Subsidence under a ridge aloft will keep the remainder of the weekend rain-free, but moisture streaming in from the Pacific will result in some passing high clouds.
/Issued 1048 AM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024/ /This afternoon through Sunday night/ Subsidence under a ridge aloft will keep the remainder of the weekend rain-free, but moisture streaming in from the Pacific will result in some passing high clouds.
Warm with a gusty SW wind on Sunday Discussion: High pressure will be near the Gulf Coast region through this period, with a slow eastward drift. Meanwhile, a low pressure system will track east across the upper Great Lakes. High clouds will be increasing tomorrow on the back side of the midlevel ridge axis but should be mainly scattered.
112 PM EDT Sat Apr 13 2024 High pressure in full control across the area and this feature will promote beautiful weather and comfortable humidity levels for any outdoor activities today, though RH values will drop to rather low values (mid 20s) this afternoon as this exceptionally dry air mass continues to build in. An upper-level ridge is starting to build in from the west as a trough axis propagates across New England. Regardless, values are in the lowest 10 percent, meaning today is unusually dry for this time of year. The upper-level pattern is flattening out and a broad upper-level ridge axis is expected to build over the Caribbean Sea and northward into the Gulf of Mexico.
155 PM EDT Sat Apr 13 2024 High pressure will build over the southeastern states through early in the week with resulting dry and warm conditions. The ridge will weaken midweek as a couple of cold fronts approach the area.
However, the shallow moisture will be quickly mixed/swept east Sunday morning as low-level winds become more westerly in response to low pressure migrating eastward across the TX and OK Panhandles. Mid-tropospheric flow accompanying the low-amplitude ridging aloft will not be particularly strong on Sunday, but the downsloping component will increase the compressional warming contribution and the forecast 850 mb temps will warm into 25-27 degrees C range. The result should be a couple degrees of warming from today and the high may reach 90 degrees at Lubbock for the first time in 2024 - which would be around the average date we see our first 90 reading each year.
Upper level ridging, more or less directly overhead this afternoon, keeping subsidence in place before upper level flow begins to flatten out somewhat, with a weak disturbance emerging over the upper plains and pseudo-zonal flow overhead for the Four State Region. The ridging overhead and increasing southerly winds will enhance our now well-established warming trend, with highs soaring back into the low to mid 80s tomorrow afternoon.
A pulse of energy associated with a large low pressure system over the Great Basin region will make its way up into the Northern Rockies by Sunday.
1248 PM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024 A beautiful spring day is underway this morning with high pressure just to our east yielding mostly clear skies and light, variable winds.
Much cooler tomorrow with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. Model solutions have slowed the forward progress of the upper low pressure system. This will also slow the forward motion of the cold front as well. For Sunday and Sunday night, the aforementioned upper low is expected to move over California Sunday. Clouds will be on the increase as will chances for light precipitation and isolated thunderstorms due to a cold front moving west to east. High temperatures tomorrow will be 15 to 20 degrees cooler than on Saturday with readings only in the 50s.
(This evening through Sunday Night) Mid to upper level ridge axis has shifted to our east and weakened/flattened a bit, allowing for a quasi-zonal flow. The pattern aloft, along with southeasterly surface winds, is resulting in warmer conditions this afternoon. Some weak disturbances will continue to move along the ridge aloft; though precipitation is not expected given strong subsidence (dry airmass). Ridging aloft strengthens again on Sunday, keeping the region dry with temperatures near to slightly above normal. Highs will climb into the mid 70s along the coast and into the low to mid 80s inland.
815 PM EDT Sat Apr 13 2024 High pressure will allow dry weather to persist tonight into Sunday. Low pressure tracking across the Great Lakes will bring a threat for showers and thunderstorms Sunday afternoon into Sunday night.
933 PM EDT Sat Apr 13 2024 A cold front moves across the region tonight. Low pressure tracks through the area Sunday night.
A low level jet of 30 to 40 knots is forecast to develop late this evening, which may result in an increase in winds to 15 to 20 mph, especially in the higher elevations across the forecast area.
Temperatures should bottom out in the low 50s along the plateau with mid to upper 50s west of the plateau. After last night's chilly temps with lows in the upper 30s and 40s, tonight will be much warmer due to a strengthening LLJ up to 35 knots at 2k ft by 12Z - with lows only dropping into the 50s to around 60. Even warmer temperatures are anticipated on Sunday as an upper ridge builds northward from the western Gulf, and highs should reach the mid 70s to low 80s areawide.
629 PM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024 (This evening through Sunday Night) Mid to upper level ridge axis has shifted to our east and weakened/flattened a bit, allowing for a quasi-zonal flow. The pattern aloft, along with southeasterly surface winds, is resulting in warmer conditions this afternoon. Some weak disturbances will continue to move along the ridge aloft; though precipitation is not expected given strong subsidence (dry airmass). Ridging aloft strengthens again on Sunday, keeping the region dry with temperatures near to slightly above normal. Highs will climb into the mid 70s along the coast and into the low to mid 80s inland.
(Sunday through Saturday) Mid-level ridging will slide over the Plains on Sunday ahead of the next storm system.
904 PM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024 Temperatures are running nearly 10 to 15 degrees warmer than last night, thanks to moderate return flow.
Mins will range from the mid to upper 30s north to the lower 40s south. POPs ramp up from northwest to southeast mid to late afternoon ahead of a cold front pushing southeast from the Great Lakes.
1057 PM EDT Sat Apr 13 2024 A ridge of high pressure will move east overnight as a warm front lifts northeast into the region. Low pressure tracking across the Great Lakes on Sunday will bring a threat for showers and thunderstorms Sunday late afternoon into Sunday night.
This has mainly been caused by a weakening MSLP gradient with surface ridging. Warm with a gusty SW wind on Sunday Discussion: High pressure will be near the Gulf Coast region through this period, with a slow eastward drift. Meanwhile, a low pressure system will track east across the upper Great Lakes. High clouds will be increasing tomorrow on the back side of the midlevel ridge axis but should be mainly scattered.
749 PM EDT Sat Apr 13 2024 High pressure will build over the southeastern states through early in the week with resulting dry and warm conditions. The ridge will weaken midweek as a couple of cold fronts approach the area.
(This afternoon through Sunday) While a ridge builds in across the Plains this afternoon, the forecast area will be under the influence of northwesterly flow. Amid large scale subsidence and abundant sunshine, temperatures will be a bit warmer Sunday where most locations outside of elevated terrain will reach the low to mid 80s.
Upper low off the CA coast as seen in water vapor satellite imagery will be the main feature generating hazardous weather this weekend. Winds shift to the west behind a cold front this evening, then diminish in the late evening and overnight hours. The upper low keeps an easterly trajectory which means that we will continue to deal with its effects through Sunday night. The highest snow accumulations will be over Lassen, Plumas and far northern Washoe county near the OR border with amounts between 3-6 inches and isolated up to 9-12 inches for the highest elevations. The upper low weakens as it continues its eastward track into UT and CO. Meanwhile, an upper ridge develops to our west and slowly expands into the Great Basin.
Temperatures are now in the mid 70s with dew points remaining in the lower 60s. The Keys remain below a broad descending branch with lower level ridging dominating the Gulf of Mexico. Deep layered ridging will remain dominant and help maintain low precipitable water and healthy inhibition. A ridge across northern Florida will maintain moderate to fresh east northeasterly breezes on Keys waters through the overnight period.
WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO The cold front is slowly making its way through the Inland Empire and western San Diego County this evening, trailed by widespread showers. 30" in the coastal and valley zones, with the higher end of the range in Orange and San Bernardino Counties, and the lower amounts in San Diego County. A few hundredths of an inch is all that will fall in the High Deserts. The Lower Deserts will remain dry. The higher values listed are most likely in the San Gabriel Mountains.
1220 AM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024 (Tonight through Sunday night) A low amplitude upper level ridge continues to move across TX this afternoon. A strong high pressure cell over the Gulf is generating breezy southeasterly winds across South Central Texas. The upper ridge will continue its slow trek to the east during this period. The low level flow will continue from the southeast. Low temperatures will be a couple of degrees warmer than this morning. The low level flow will remain from the southeast Sunday and Sunday night.
1202 AM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024 (This evening through Sunday Night) Mid to upper level ridge axis has shifted to our east and weakened/flattened a bit, allowing for a quasi-zonal flow. The pattern aloft, along with southeasterly surface winds, is resulting in warmer conditions this afternoon. Some weak disturbances will continue to move along the ridge aloft; though precipitation is not expected given strong subsidence (dry airmass). Ridging aloft strengthens again on Sunday, keeping the region dry with temperatures near to slightly above normal. Highs will climb into the mid 70s along the coast and into the low to mid 80s inland.
(Today) Another unseasonably warm day is on tap across eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas Today as a mid-level ridge builds over the area.
However, strong high pressure building into the region later this week will allow temperatures to warm rapidly with some lower desert communities possibly approaching close to the 100 degree mark late in the week. Nevertheless, increased pressure packing along a decaying cold front crossing the coast range will support enhanced winds descending into lower elevations of Imperial County again this afternoon and evening.
The upper-level pattern is flattening out as ridging builds in from the west. PW values continue to hover in the lowest 10th percentile and near record lows with this pattern in play. The ridge will continue to flatten before starting to amplify over the region again as trough axis propagates east.