Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
The prolonged heatwave breaks while the threat for thunderstorms and dry lighting increases as monsoonal moisture drives in from an offshore low pressure system. Attention is focused on a mid to upper low advancing alongside the CA coast. Guided between the Four Corners high and the low, a healthy plume of mid level monsoonal moisture is currently moving in from the south. Chances will increase through this evening (15 to 25%) as discrete areas of PVA rotate in off the low and the moisture within interacts with the higher terrain.
High temperatures will be cooler than during previous days. Highs for Monday will be cooler with readings in the mid 80s to low 90s.
(This evening through Monday) Mid/upper ridge continues to influence the region. Thermal ridge will spread E/NE Monday with 850mb temps forecast to be a few degrees warmer than today.
/Issued 1233 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024/ /Through Monday/ A dominant upper ridge will keep hot and rain-free weather in place through the period. Temperatures will be a touch warmer tomorrow as the upper level ridge continues to shift a bit further east. /NEW/ /Monday Night Onward/ Hot, above-normal conditions are expected to persist through the first half of this week as North and Central Texas remain under the influence of the aforementioned upper ridge to our west (mentioned in the short term forecast above).
Temperatures will fall back closer to seasonal averages as high pressure weakens and deeper moisture returns to the area. Deeper moisture has spread into the area, largely from the Gulf of CA as we see a direct push up through Sonora as well as a surge into the lower deserts. Ensemble means keep the high meandering around from just east/northeast of us to nearly overhead during the coming week. On days where the high is northeast and east of us we'll continue to be vulnerable to strong organized outflow.
The actual upper low (further back in AB and SK) is expected later on Monday, but instability and other necessary parameters during that period look to be lower, so not thinking severe weather with the UL. Once we get to mid-week, the pattern is expected to shift to ridging to our SW and calmer weather for the work week. After this trough, the rest of the week features quiet weather, and cooler temperatures, warming into the mid 80s by the weekend. Winds will go light and variable this evening, turning to the south at first then northerly with a cold front Monday afternoon.
112 PM EDT Sun Jul 14 2024 (Today and tonight) Ridging overhead today will once again allow high temperatures to rise into the mid to upper 90s this afternoon.
(This evening through Monday) Upper-level ridging continues to dominate our weather pattern in the short term with dry and warm conditions. The ridge will flatten and weaken a bit tomorrow but with 850 mb temperatures and overall thickness values increasing temperatures will actually end up a few degrees warmer than today ranging from the upper 90s to lower 100s.
(Now through Monday) Latest water vapor imagery shows a mid level trough swinging into the Lower Mississippi Valley with mid level ridging off the SE US coast. Overnight lows will fall into the lower to mid 70s, except along the coast where lows will remain in the upper 70s. Temperatures will be similar to those today, with highs warming into the lower to mid 90s once again.
Ridging will be situated overhead giving us neutral flow and very light winds across the area.
(This evening through Monday) The upper high pressure will be centered over the southern Rockies through Monday, with West Texas remaining on the eastern periphery of the high through Monday. Lows tonight will be in the low to mid 70s.
While the 850mb ridge remains across the Southeast CONUS, a weakness or col at 500mb will shift slightly eastward and will be across Middle and West TN. These slightly lower heights aloft, and increased moisture to our west, will result in some higher convective coverage across the Midsouth and portions of the Lower Tennessee River Valley. Daily Record High Maximum Temperatures Date Chattanooga Knoxville Tri-Cities Oak Ridge 07-14 103(1954) 101(1954) 98(1954) 101(1954) (Monday night through next Sunday) Key Messages: 1.
120 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 (Today through Monday) An upper level ridge is currently centered near the 4-Corners and loosely extends across the southern CONUS. Increased 500mb heights from ridge to the west will continue to support mid/upper 90 degree highs.
1246 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 (Today through Monday) 500 mb high pressure centered over the Florida Panhandle will generally be the dominant weather feature over the BRO CWFA during the period.
Weak waves will be moving into the area around the ridge to the S tonight through Monday, and the right-rear quadrant of a 300 mb jet will be over the area through tonight. Backdoor cold front will drop S through the area tonight.
(Tonight through Monday night) Mid-level ridge will continue to be the main focus of the short term forecast period. As for temperatures, the low temperatures for tonight and tomorrow night are expected to be in the 70s, with parts of the Lower Rio Grande Valley approaching the 80s. On the other hand, the high temperatures for tomorrow are expected to be in the 90s.
255 PM EDT Sun Jul 14 2024 (This afternoon through Monday) Much of Eastern CONUS is positioned in a weakness in the height field between an upper ridge over CO/NM and another elongated ridge extending from the northern Gulf of Mexico into the west Atlantic. Aside from lower temperatures in the higher elevations of far northeast Georgia, highs today will rise into the upper 90s to near 100.
Mid/upper level troughing will sit in place across the region tonight. /19/ Monday through next Sunday: An upper-level trough will remain over the central Gulf Coast region tomorrow, however with the axis shifting slightly eastward, best POPs and lowest heights will also shift a little eastward compared to today. With that, an expanded influence of upper-level ridging to the west should boost temps a few degrees across northeast LA, southeast AR, and northwest MS compared to today. The upper-level trough axis/weakness in the ridge never truly clears out of the central Gulf Coast region through the end of this week, so afternoon convection and increased cloud cover will continue to challenge peak heating potential.
1025 AM PDT Sun Jul 14 2024 Between the deepening marine layer and the upper level disturbance moving through the region, cooler conditions will prevail across the region today, with near to below normal temperatures continuing through the majority of the week.
135 PM MDT Sun Jul 14 2024 -Cooler this week with chances for showers and storms Central Canada upper low will retrograde back west and support lower heights into the Northern Plains this week as the western CONUS ridge flattens. This feature will provide the focus for convection the next few days as several impulses traverse the Rockies ridge and advect over the region. Breezy northerly winds are expected Monday behind a cold front, but RH's will be a bit higher.
(This afternoon through Monday night) WV imagery shows a bifurcated upper ridge persisting over the southern CONUS, with one half centered east of the Four Corners, and the other over the northern Gulf of Mexico, placing the col from Del Rio to the ArklaTex, but a little farther southeast than 24 hours ago, as the Four Corners ridge drifts southeast.
Looking ahead, cooler and drier weather remains on track for this coming week. Temperatures were seasonably warm, in the mid to upper 80s, but heat indices were were in the lower to mid 90s.
High pressure aloft was centered over Colorado and the Four Corners region during the afternoon, set to remain in place through Monday.
A lot of this has to do with the lower humidly levels over the next couple of days. Temperatures under the upper ridge, that is re-asserting itself over the region, support a range from around 90 along the Coastal Bend to around 100F in the Rio Grande Plains. Because of that, the max heat index values will range from 100F to 110F with the highest along the Coastal Bend. With the lowering humidity and the diminishing focusing mechanism (upper level trough) convective activity will remain at a minimum.
An upper level ridge of high pressure over the southern Rockies will expand eastward in the lower Mississippi River Valley over the next few days.
Cu development is occurring across the higher elevations, and slight risk PoPs exist for these higher elevation areas.
1238 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 (Today and tonight) The upper level ridge is currently centered over southern Colorado and northern New Mexico early this morning. This ridge will remain in place, and possibly even slightly expand somewhat to the southeast. Tonight, south/southeast winds will diminish to 5 to 10 mph, with lows mainly in the low to mid 70s.
Weaker isolated thunderstorms are expected to pop up in the late afternoon tomorrow as cooler temps move into MT, which will wrap up by midnight.
(This evening through Monday Night) Quiet afternoon ongoing across the Four State Region as temperatures continue to climb into the low to mid 90's. At the same time, S-SW winds locally will support the northward advancement of a gulf airmass, that may mix out some through the early afternoon, but should still allow for Td's in the low to mid 70's.
Drying will occur for mid-week with slightly warmer temperatures.
307 PM EDT Sun Jul 14 2024 High pressure will build across the region today.
(Tonight through Monday night) Weather conditions become much more quiet today and tomorrow compared to previous days as mid-level high pressure from the east builds over much of the area. To the west/northwest, an inverted trough remains bringing some low end precipitation chances to our far west this afternoon.
Dew points and low temperatures in the low to mid 70s will make for muggy overnight conditions.
Between the deepening marine layer and the upper level disturbance moving through the region, cooler conditions will prevail across the region today, with near to below normal temperatures continuing through the majority of the week.
1203 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 (Today through Monday) A broad, inverted upper trough will remain to the west and northwest of the region through early this week.
Cooler and quieter conditions follow for the second half of the week and into the weekend.
The lows overnight into early Monday morning will be in the mid to upper 70s for the inland portions and in the upper 70s to low 80s along the coastal regions. Skies will be sunnier as well and high temperatures will rise to the mid 90s over areas north of I-10 and in the low 90s elsewhere. Although the highs will be a degree or two higher, the slightly drier air may keep heat indices closer to the 102-105 deg F range. Benign conditions expected Monday night with slightly cooler nighttime temperatures, in particular over the Brazos Valley and Piney Woods region. The lows will be in the mid 70s over areas north of I-10, in the mid to upper 70s over areas south of I-10, and in the upper 70s to low 80s along the coasts.
/NEW/ /Through Monday/ A dominant upper ridge will keep hot and rain-free weather in place through the period. Temperatures will be a touch warmer tomorrow as the upper level ridge continues to shift a bit further east.
Weak troughing along the West Coast will promote everyone's favorite onshore flow, helping to keep temperatures in-check in/around the Delta and through the Sacramento Metro where highs will be in the upper-80s to middle-90s.
(This evening through Monday night) Upper ridges were noted near the Four Corners area and from west of Bermuda into the northern Gulf of Mexico. In between, troughing extended from the lower Ohio River Valley into Texas. With forecast soundings showing convective temperatures remaining in the lower 90s, expect that tomorrow's convective timing and areal coverage will look a lot like today's (and yesterday's), from mid afternoon into early evening.
615 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 (This evening through Monday) Mid/upper ridge continues to influence the region. Thermal ridge will spread E/NE Monday with 850mb temps forecast to be a few degrees warmer than today.
Westerly flow will bring smoke into the lower valleys of eastern Oregon tonight and potentially into the Treasure Valley by Monday morning.
655 PM EDT Sun Jul 14 2024 High pressure will build across the region today.
The region will be between high pressure to the east, and a trough just to the northwest Monday.
632 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 (This evening through Monday) The upper high pressure will be centered over the southern Rockies through Monday, with West Texas remaining on the eastern periphery of the high through Monday. Lows tonight will be in the low to mid 70s.
Boundary layer & deep moisture will keep seasonably warm lows in the low-mid 70s. Mid/upper level troughing will sit in place across the region tonight. /19/ Monday through next Sunday: An upper-level trough will remain over the central Gulf Coast region tomorrow, however with the axis shifting slightly eastward, best POPs and lowest heights will also shift a little eastward compared to today. With that, an expanded influence of upper-level ridging to the west should boost temps a few degrees across northeast LA, southeast AR, and northwest MS compared to today. The upper-level trough axis/weakness in the ridge never truly clears out of the central Gulf Coast region through the end of this week, so afternoon convection and increased cloud cover will continue to challenge peak heating potential.
Temps will remain fairly stationary for the remainder of the night across this region, while temps along the coast, currently in the low to mid 80s will also see lows in the mid to upper 70s later tonight.
630 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 An upper level ridge of high pressure over the southern Rockies will expand eastward in the lower Mississippi River Valley over the next few days.
Upper level trough will remain situated along the coast this week, with temperatures remaining near to slightly below normal through much of the week, with little day to day fluctuations possible. In fact, Monterey Airport is still trying to clear at this hour, and while it may briefly, expect the low clouds to roll back in quickly late this afternoon and evening. The low clouds and fog will once again push inland this evening and during the overnight hours.
606 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 (Tonight through Monday night) Mid-level ridge will continue to be the main focus of the short term forecast period. As for temperatures, the low temperatures for tonight and tomorrow night are expected to be in the 70s, with parts of the Lower Rio Grande Valley approaching the 80s. On the other hand, the high temperatures for tomorrow are expected to be in the 90s.
Unfortunately, little relief is expected overnight as low temperatures are only expected to dip into the lower to mid 80s. High pressure in the North Atlantic will maintain moderate breezes overnight, with a gradual slackening expected overnight.
630 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 (This evening through Monday Night) Quiet afternoon ongoing across the Four State Region as temperatures continue to climb into the low to mid 90's. At the same time, S-SW winds locally will support the northward advancement of a gulf airmass, that may mix out some through the early afternoon, but should still allow for Td's in the low to mid 70's.
An upper level ridge will remain in control over Western Washington through the first half of the for continued dry conditions and above normal temperatures.
This will bring similar conditions tonight to what we saw last night but it does look like it will be a few degrees warmer and maybe slightly more humid.
High pressure will remain centered near the Four Corners over the next few days, allowing a more moist airmass to move back into the area as temperatures stay above seasonal normals.
(This afternoon through Monday) Much of Eastern CONUS is positioned in a weakness in the height field between an upper ridge over CO/NM and another elongated ridge extending from the northern Gulf of Mexico into the west Atlantic. Aside from lower temperatures in the higher elevations of far northeast Georgia, highs today will rise into the upper 90s to near 100.
Cooler, less humid and quieter conditions follow for the second half of the week and into the weekend.
520 PM MDT Sun Jul 14 2024 -Cooler this week with chances for showers and storms Central Canada upper low will retrograde back west and support lower heights into the Northern Plains this week as the western CONUS ridge flattens. This feature will provide the focus for convection the next few days as several impulses traverse the Rockies ridge and advect over the region. Breezy northerly winds are expected Monday behind a cold front, but RH's will be a bit higher.
817 PM EDT Sun Jul 14 2024 High pressure will build across the region today.
618 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 (Tonight through Monday night) Weather conditions become much more quiet today and tomorrow compared to previous days as mid-level high pressure from the east builds over much of the area. To the west/northwest, an inverted trough remains bringing some low end precipitation chances to our far west this afternoon.
The actual upper low (further back in AB and SK) is expected later on Monday, but instability and other necessary parameters during that period look to be lower, so not thinking severe weather with the UL. Once we get to mid-week, the pattern is expected to shift to ridging to our SW and calmer weather for the work week. After this trough, the rest of the week features quiet weather, and cooler temperatures, warming into the mid 80s by the weekend.
For the rest of the night, expect temperatures to drop down into the low to mid 70s by daybreak under partly cloudy skies.
618 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 (This evening through Monday) Upper-level ridging continues to dominate our weather pattern in the short term with dry and warm conditions. The ridge will flatten and weaken a bit tomorrow but with 850 mb temperatures and overall thickness values increasing temperatures will actually end up a few degrees warmer than today ranging from the upper 90s to lower 100s.
944 PM EDT Sun Jul 14 2024 High pressure will build across the region today.
520 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 (This afternoon through Monday night) WV imagery shows a bifurcated upper ridge persisting over the southern CONUS, with one half centered east of the Four Corners, and the other over the northern Gulf of Mexico, placing the col from Del Rio to the ArklaTex, but a little farther southeast than 24 hours ago, as the Four Corners ridge drifts southeast.
/NEW/ /Through Monday/ An upper level ridge will continue to build in across our CWA, keeping temperatures high and rain chances low. This daytime over-mixing is expected to decrease over the next few days as trends continue to indicate heat index values climbing while the ridge over our forecast region continues to sharpen.
- Looking ahead, cooler and drier weather remains on track for this coming week. Temperatures were seasonably warm, in the mid to upper 80s, but heat indices were were in the lower to mid 90s.
120 AM EDT Mon Jul 15 2024 A strong subtropical ridge will remain over the Southeast through early to mid-week.
917 PM MDT Sun Jul 14 2024 The Heat Advisory has been allowed to expire this evening with cooler, but still warm, temperatures expected to begin this week. Weak waves will be moving into the area around the ridge to the S tonight through Monday, and the right-rear quadrant of a 300 mb jet will be over the area through tonight. Backdoor cold front will drop S through the area tonight. Upper ridging will begin to build over the region on Tuesday. Tuesday will be a couple degrees warmer than Monday.
- Cooler weather returns through midweek with a modest warmup expected for the end of the week and into the weekend. Western and central North Dakota continues to sit under the influence of broad upper level troughing. Today will be cooler in the wake of the low and frontal system. Highs will range from the lower 70s in the vicinity of the Turtle Mountains, to the mid 80s southwest.
The region will be between high pressure to the east, and a trough just to the northwest Monday. (Monday through Tuesday night) The region will be between high pressure to the east, and a trough just to the northwest this period.
315 AM EDT Mon Jul 15 2024 A strong subtropical ridge will remain over the Southeast through early to mid-week.
248 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 - Hot and humid today but record temperatures are unlikely - Another hot day Tuesday in the south but cooling off in the north with an approaching front - Unseasonably cool for the end of the week and into the weekend Ridging continues to build into the region today along with some weak moisture advection. By late this afternoon and into the evening, a slow moving cold front will be encroaching on the region. Primarily pushing the hotter temperatures a little further south to compensate the higher potential for cloud cover hanging around longer than previously expected in the central areas of the CWA.
Boundary layer & deep moisture will keep seasonably warm lows in the low-mid 70s. Mid/upper level troughing will sit in place across the region tonight.
130 AM MDT Mon Jul 15 2024 -Cooler this week with chances for storms most days -A few stronger storms possible this afternoon and evening Water vapor shows upper high over the Southern Rockies with short wave trof over southern ALTA/Manitoba, which is flattening the ridge over the Northern Plains. At the surface, low is over north-central SD with cold front along a line that extends through KPHP and KIEN early this morning. Highs today will be in the 80s to lower 90s with northerly winds behind the cold front. Additional storms possible on Tuesday afternoon/evening with stronger short wave trof moving through and steep lapse rates in place with northwest flow aloft. Highs will be similar or a degree or two cooler than today, with continued northerly flow.
1228 AM EDT Mon Jul 15 2024 High pressure will shift eastward tonight. Several weak troughs will cross the area Monday through Tuesday.
SE TX in the weakness region between the ridging aloft), the slightly drier air mass over area still won't inhibit the development of isolated showers/storms through this afternoon. These sunnier skies will translate to warmer daytime temperatures, with highs in the mid and upper 90s from the Brazos Valley out the Piney Woods. mid 90s central/Houston metro and then the lower 90s across the coastal counties.
1032 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 (This evening through Monday) Mid/upper ridge continues to influence the region. Thermal ridge will spread E/NE Monday with 850mb temps forecast to be a few degrees warmer than today.
* A cold front moves through Tuesday into Tuesday evening with additional shower and thunderstorm chances (40-60%). Forecast becomes a bit muddled into Tuesday and Tuesday night as a synoptic cold front sags through in advance of an amplifying upper trough.
Generally have the central and southern TN valley a few degrees cooler. Above normal temps expected overnight with lows in the lower 70s for most places.
CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 - Hot and humid today but record temperatures are unlikely - Another hot day Tuesday in the south but cooling off in the north with an approaching front - Unseasonably cool for the end of the week and into the weekend Ridging continues to build into the region today along with some weak moisture advection. By late this afternoon and into the evening, a slow moving cold front will be encroaching on the region. Primarily pushing the hotter temperatures a little further south to compensate the higher potential for cloud cover hanging around longer than previously expected in the central areas of the CWA.
Weak upper-level ridging remains in control as the subtropical ridge and the ridge axis remains situated across central Florida. Even into the weekend, the only real notable change is the upper-level ridge becomes stronger, increasing the ESE flow over the weekend.
- Mainly dry after Tuesday The front will progress south on Tuesday as an upper trough settles into the area.