Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
High pressure tonight brings mainly clear skies, light winds and good raditional cooling conditions. A narrow, high-amplitude ridge will build across the northern Mid Atlantic region through the Northeast US early this week and produce a period of quiet/dry weather with warm and above average temperatures for this time of year. Under this ridge, 850mb temperatures will reach into the +17 to +19 deg C range, which is roughly 1-2 standard deviations above normal.
149 PM EDT Sat Aug 9 2025 High pressure will keep quiescent conditions across the region with above normal temperatures. Scattered cumulus are the primary feature this afternoon with high pressure continuing to dominate the region. High pressure off to the east persists through Sunday, with very similar conditions forecast.
The one thing to watch are the increasing westerly winds which will be gusting from 30 to 40 mph across north central SD this afternoon in response to the low pressure over southern Canada.
(Rest of today and tonight) A mid-level trough will continue to traverse the Plains this weekend while the base will clip the northern portions of the forecast area. A weak cold front will move into northern portions of Oklahoma, which will help to prevent heat indices from climbing above heat advisory criteria.
- An easterly wave/inverted trough feature will continue to move west across the northern Gulf into Texas through mid-week helping to increase rain chances over the area, especially near the seabreeze boundary. - The sub=tropical ridge is expected to build in by the end of the week with a return to typical summertime weather.
353 PM EDT Sat Aug 9 2025 High pressure will remain in control through the weekend. The high will then slowly weaken over the region as a frontal system approaches mid week. Elongated E-W high pressure extending from Nova Scotia to the Mid Atlantic will remain in control. Heights aloft will slowly rise as ridging builds over the eastern US. A high amplitude ridge (+2 to +3SD) over the eastern third of the country will be the main weather feature. High temps have been running close to or a shade higher than a MAV/MET blend, so took the higher of that and the NBM for Sunday, with near 90 in most of NE NJ and well into the 80s most elsewhere.
One inverted upper trough over the lower Mississippi River and western Gulf will gradually shift westward and evolve into a closed low pressure area as an upper high pressure ridge builds over the southeast states from the east.
255 PM EDT Sat Aug 9 2025 High pressure will bring a comfortably cool night tonight.
Weakness in the upper ridge as evidenced by an upper low shifting westward in the Gulf will continue to yield to rising heights locally, supporting the warming trend.
- Some scattered showers and thunderstorms south of a lines from Columbus to Macon Forecast: The wedge has started to degrade and the stationary front that's been parked over Florida for the past few days will start to slowly makes its way north as a weak upper level trough starts to clear out the area. Severe weather is not expected and CAPE values will limited by cooler temps and an unimpressive set of dynamics, but a few thunderstorms could have some strong gusty winds, especially if the cloud deck starts to break down in the afternoon. Temperatures will be in the low to mid 80s again today, but will slowly edge up tomorrow to the mid to upper 80s.
- A gradual shift to drier and warmer conditions begins Sunday (tomorrow). WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: An upper low moving over the region through the weekend will continue drifting east and allow for gradual clearing tonight.
A dry cold front will usher in a somewhat cooler airmass to the Beehive State.
pdf Showers and isolated to scattered thunderstorms will continue shift inland through the late afternoon and early evening hours with trailing scattered coastal convection as an inverted trough axis lifts northward from central FL. A meandering surface front lingers across the local forecast area, and the combination of the lifting inverted trough axis and mid level lift aloft will continue a chance of mainly coastal showers and storms after midnight through daybreak Sunday.
- Near to above normal temperatures will continue into the new week with daily highs in the low to upper 80s and low 90s expected. Low pressure near the Canadian border will continue to lift northeast and fill through Sunday. This helps keep less unstable air in place across the area, especially by Sunday when a stronger push of cooler and drier air settles south. Model soundings showing the low levels saturating later tonight into Sunday morning.
159 PM EDT Sat Aug 9 2025 High pressure will remain in control through the weekend. The high will then slowly weaken over the region as a frontal system approaches mid week. Elongated E-W high pressure extending from Nova Scotia to the Mid Atlantic will remain in control. Heights aloft will slowly rise as ridging builds over the eastern US. A high amplitude ridge (+2 to +3SD) over the eastern third of the country will be the main weather feature. High temps have been running close to or a shade higher than a MAV/MET blend, so took the higher of that and the NBM for Sunday, with near 90 in most of NE NJ and well into the 80s most elsewhere.
The tighter pressure gradient on the southern side of the low is bringing wind gusts up to about 30 mph so far today. As this low pushes north and east through the rest of the afternoon and evening, the higher winds gusting to 35 mph or so should overspread the Red River Valley and points west. In the lows wake, flow will become northwesterly.
Temperatures are expected to be in the low to mid 90s with heat indices around 100 degrees each day.
This will be changing tomorrow, though, as a bit of an impulse of upper level low pressure moves into the area from the east. As we've been advertising, high temps are expected to stay in the low 90s.
Currently a stacked low pressure system currently sits on the North Dakota/Canadian border. Scattered showers have formed around the low in the cyclonic flow across eastern Montana to northwestern Minnesota. The low will slowly move east, along with the rain showers this evening and overnight. Very breezy winds also accompany the low pressure with the tight pressure gradient force. The rest of this weekend on the backside of the low, we will be in the sinking motion northwest flow. Temperatures will warm slightly back into the 80s as warmer air is allowed to move back east. Sunday will be breezy again as the low pressure will still be nearby in Northwest Ontario.
- Drier and a little cooler for the next few days.
Inverted mid/upper trough to our east will make some westward progress the next couple days. Locally, this will allow heights to fall as the dominate ridging centered to our west partially erodes. Late this upcoming week, guidance is in pretty good agreement depicting a strengthening mid/upper ridge expanding into the region from the east.
Issued at 100 PM CDT Sat Aug 9 2025 PoP grids have been increased to give a low (20-25%) chance of brief isolated showers and/or thunderstorms this afternoon to mainly the Lower and Middle RGV as well as southern portions of Kenedy and Brooks counties.
Latest analysis shows an upper low moving east across eastern Saskatchewan that has pushed a drier and cooler airmass into much of the region. As this upper level low continues to push east strong NW flow aloft will push smoke down into the region as fires continue to burn across western Canada. As mentioned above, smoke/haze will be possible across areas from about Buffalo down to Rapid City and points east tomorrow as the upper level low will cement a NW flow aloft that will pull down smoke from western Canada.
(Rest of today through Sunday) An upper low drifting southwestward from the far SW Atlantic into the northern Caribbean has placed a favorable area of mid-level ascent over the Peninsula of Florida.
Current Conditions and Synoptic Overview: Water vapor and upper air analysis continues to show upper high pressure across the southwest US with a ridge axis extending northeast into Missouri. Upper level troughing was occuring across the northern US. Air temps as of early afternoon were in the low to mid 90s with heat indicies around 100 degrees. A majority of the other CAMS keeps the MCS north of the area until closer to sunrise when it attempts to move through areas along and north of the highway 54 corridor.
620 PM CDT Sat Aug 9 2025 - An easterly wave/inverted trough feature will continue to move west across the northern Gulf into Texas through mid-week helping to increase rain chances over the area, especially near the seabreeze boundary. - The sub=tropical ridge is expected to build in by the end of the week with a return to typical summertime weather.
Expect temperatures to range broadly near 80 with dew points in the lower to mid 70s. A surface through mid level trough is positioned over the eastern Gulf and has contributed to very disturbed weather on Keys waters through the day and evening.
Early Saturday evening, a warm front stretched across northern Kansas. However, if we look upstream to northeast Colorado, we'll see the influence of an incoming short wave trough with height falls, as well as persistent upslope high terrain flow.
As of 730 PM: A large patch of stratocu has spread out across the area east of the Blue Ridge, underneath the inversion associated with the wedge. an inverted trough near the GA/SC coast, along the boundary of the damming high, will drift inland slightly and remain a focus for convection thru tonight. Widespread cloud cover should develop by around daybreak along and southeast of the Blue Ridge Escarpment. Cloud cover will keep max temps similar to or even a little cooler than today's and effectively keep CAD in place for at least another day. As of 1146 AM Saturday: A typical late summer pattern continues into next work week as broad upper ridging retrogrades from the Atlantic into the southeast states while a northern stream trough digs across the Northern Plains and into the Great Lakes.
730 PM EDT Sat Aug 9 2025 High pressure will bring a comfortably cool night tonight.
Tonight and Sunday The latest RAP analysis and satellite/radar imagery show a cold front draped from northeast Minnesota to far western Wisconsin to northwest Iowa early this afternoon.
1028 PM EDT Sat Aug 9 2025 High pressure will remain in control through the weekend. The high will then slowly weaken over the region as a frontal system approaches mid week. Elongated E-W high pressure extending from Nova Scotia to the Mid Atlantic will remain in control. Heights aloft will slowly rise as ridging builds over the eastern US. A high amplitude ridge (+2 to +3SD) over the eastern third of the country will be the main weather feature. High temps have been running close to or a shade higher than a MAV/MET blend, so took the higher of that and the NBM for Sunday, with near 90 in most of NE NJ and well into the 80s most elsewhere.
With the center of an upper level high from eastern Arizona into New Mexico, southeasterly flow in the mid-levels has ushered 1-1. Min RHs will generally be around 14-22 percent in the lower elevations and 20-30 percent in the mountains.
An upper ridge off the coast will build inland while maintaining a dry northwest flow aloft over our area through Sunday.
The main changes will be will be to align our sky cover forecast with the high clouds spreading north from storms across NE.
642 PM CDT Sat Aug 9 2025 - Less muggy and a little cooler for the next few days.
Relatively robust convection has developed within central Red River Valley, utilizing available instability mainly rooted in the lowest layers of the atmosphere. While potential for downdraft acceleration is limited (DCAPE less than 800 J/kg), the low level shear is strong. The tighter pressure gradient on the southern side of the low is bringing wind gusts up to about 30 mph so far today. As this low pushes north and east through the rest of the afternoon and evening, the higher winds gusting to 35 mph or so should overspread the Red River Valley and points west. In the lows wake, flow will become northwesterly.
655 PM EDT Sat Aug 9 2025 (Rest of today through Sunday) An upper low drifting southwestward from the far SW Atlantic into the northern Caribbean has placed a favorable area of mid-level ascent over the Peninsula of Florida.
636 PM CDT Sat Aug 9 2025 One inverted upper trough over the lower Mississippi River and western Gulf will gradually shift westward and evolve into a closed low pressure area as an upper high pressure ridge builds over the southeast states from the east.
633 PM EDT Sat Aug 9 2025 High pressure will keep quiescent conditions across the region with above normal temperatures. Scattered cumulus are the primary feature this afternoon with high pressure continuing to dominate the region. High pressure off to the east persists through Sunday, with very similar conditions forecast.
- Cooler temperatures are expected across the region today and tomorrow.
Water vapour loop had upper low over central MB with trough into the southern Rockies. Today/tonight, upper trough shifts east as 100kt jet on back side slides into the plains. Monday, northwest flow aloft becomes well-established as upper trough shifts northeast into Hudson Bay.
(Rest of today and tonight) A mid-level trough will continue to traverse the Plains this weekend while the base will clip the northern portions of the forecast area. A weak cold front will move into northern portions of Oklahoma, which will help to prevent heat indices from climbing above heat advisory criteria. Bunker (Sunday through Monday night) The aforementioned cold front will be the primary focal point for additional showers and thunderstorms Sunday afternoon into Monday. Troughing will remain over the area on Monday which will allow for cooler temperatures (upper 80s to mid 90s) and continued chances for showers and thunderstorms across the area.
To the east of this feature, the Atlantic Ridge is nosing back in across the region. As the Atlantic Ridge continues to nose westward back across the area, we will see our surface winds return more out of the east.
(Rest of tonight and Sunday) High pressure remains largely dominant over the area which has led to drier conditions today. High pressure and large scale subsidence will allow for one more dry day across the Tennessee Valley before an axis of better moisture is pushed northward as we begin the work week. Heat indices will range from the lower to upper 90s, so be sure to drink plenty of fluids and never leave people or pets locked in unattended vehicles.
238 AM EDT Sun Aug 10 2025 High pressure will bring hot and dry conditions until mid week.
Currently a stacked low pressure system currently sits on the North Dakota/Canadian border. Scattered showers have formed around the low in the cyclonic flow across eastern Montana to northwestern Minnesota. The low will slowly move east, along with the rain showers this evening and overnight. Very breezy winds also accompany the low pressure with the tight pressure gradient force. The rest of this weekend on the backside of the low, we will be in the sinking motion northwest flow. Temperatures will warm slightly back into the 80s as warmer air is allowed to move back east. Sunday will be breezy again as the low pressure will still be nearby in Northwest Ontario. Sunday night through Monday more cyclonic flow from a trough in central Canada moves in.
Later today an upper low will lift north and heights will rise slightly.
Current Conditions and Synoptic Overview: Water vapor and upper air analysis continues to show upper high pressure across the southwest US with a ridge axis extending northeast into Missouri. Upper level troughing was occuring across the northern US. Air temps as of early afternoon were in the low to mid 90s with heat indicies around 100 degrees. A majority of the other CAMS keeps the MCS north of the area until closer to sunrise when it attempts to move through areas along and north of the highway 54 corridor. This should allow for slightly higher precip chances as the low level jet develops again and interacts with the frontal boundary. Currently areas along and north of I-44 have the highest pops.
Not a lot of movement in the upper level pattern early in the work week, with troughing over the Plains being held up by an upper low east of New England.
344 AM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025 - A few scattered showers with an occasional stroke of lightning will move through areas south of the Highway-18 corridor in northwestern IA this morning. - Near to above normal temperatures will continue into the new week with daily highs in the low to upper 80s and low 90s expected.
- Higher rain/storm chances and relatively cooler temperatures are expected to start the work week. (Today) Low-level thermal ridging extending from the southern High Plains northeast into the central/southern Plains will continue to bring dangerous heat to close out the weekend. While the intensity of the LLTR is expected to back off a bit, the hot temps and humidity are expected to yield near advisory level heat indices across a good portion of E OK and the lower Ark River Valley and thus one more day of heat headlines.
Upper level low has moved well to the northeast of the area this morning, but we are still under upper level troffing with another vort centered over SW Wyoming.
- Increased chances for showers/storms early this week with the highest chances still near and south of I-10.
Issued by the National Weather Service Raleigh NC 315 AM EDT Sun Aug 10 2025 High pressure remains over the region promoting fair weather. High pressure remains over the forecast area and will promote mainly dry conditions. Temperatures are still running about 5 degrees cooler than normal. Highs today are expected to range from the 70s in the mountains to the lower 80s in the piedmont, and lows tonight from the 50s to lower 60s.
109 AM EDT Sun Aug 10 2025 High pressure will bring a comfortably cool night tonight.
345 AM EDT Sun Aug 10 2025 - Hot and humid through Monday with highs in the upper 80s to near 90 and heat indices in the low to mid 90s.
The highest coverage of storms will likely remain out over the Gulf again through the pre-dawn hours this morning. As a result of the lack of storm coverage today, highs will rise into the low 90s across much of the area by the afternoon. An weak inverted trough continues to slide westward across the Gulf today, around the southern periphery of a ridge anchored over the western Atlantic.
(Today) High pressure centered over the Mid-Atlantic continues to be the main driver of the local weather pattern.
There is a weak trough passage Monday which will provide some ascent for convection.
1218 AM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025 (Rest of tonight and Sunday) High pressure remains largely dominant over the area which has led to drier conditions today. High pressure and large scale subsidence will allow for one more dry day across the Tennessee Valley before an axis of better moisture is pushed northward as we begin the work week. Heat indices will range from the lower to upper 90s, so be sure to drink plenty of fluids and never leave people or pets locked in unattended vehicles.
332 AM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025 - Less muggy and a little cooler for the next few days. The cold front slowly sliding through the area yesterday and overnight has stalled over northwest Wisconsin, and may cause some showers and storms there late this morning through the afternoon hours. High temperatures today over northern Minnesota will on the be in the mid 70s to around 80, instead of the warmer temps we have had the last few days. The cooler airmass moving in will bring overnight low temps down to near or below 60 for the first time in several days. The cold front finally moves east of the forecast area by Monday.
An inverted trough near the GA/SC coast and the cold air damming high remain in place through the period.
An upper ridge will continue to influence the weather across central Indiana. The upper ridge will remain in the area.
118 AM EDT Sun Aug 10 2025 High pressure will keep quiescent conditions across the region with above normal temperatures. A weak cold front will move through midweek bringing some showers and thunderstorms. High pressure at the surface and aloft will persist today.
High temperatures will remain typical for this time of year as they will rise up to the low 90s across most areas. Heat indices could rise into the low 100s, however cloud coverage should help keep conditions below advisory criteria.
Upper trough lifts to the northeast this morning with northeast flow developing this evening.
13z NBM is consistent in this thinking, highlighting this axis as the most probable location for the highest rainfall amounts into Monday. Overall, a wet period continues to be expected across the region with the axis of the highest rainfall across northeast Iowa into southern Wisconsin. Drier Conditions By Mid Week As the longwave trough shifts eastward through the beginning of the week, ensemble guidance indicates the return of upper level ridging to the region, although variations in the strength and location of said feature are evident. With this ridging building in, drier conditions will become favored as compared to this weekend. Visibilities should improve before the low CIGs do with the former improving into mid morning and the latter improving to VFR between 15-18Z.
Southeast Michigan will remain positioned to finish the weekend period within the western flank of predominate large scale upper ridging.
1236 AM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025 One inverted upper trough over the lower Mississippi River and western Gulf will gradually shift westward and evolve into a closed low pressure area as an upper high pressure ridge builds over the southeast states from the east.
These features will help serve as a focus for convective development this afternoon as the southern portion of the mid-level trough enters the panhandles and northwest Oklahoma.
While the end is approaching for our anomalous early August pattern characterized by easterly flow and cooler than normal temperatures, it will linger today into Monday. These increased PoPs, particularly for areas south and east of the I-85 corridor, are courtesy of a weak wave/inverted trough along the Georgia/South Carolina coastline that will push deeper moisture inland into our area.
1233 AM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025 - An easterly wave/inverted trough feature will continue to move west across the northern Gulf into Texas through mid-week helping to increase rain chances over the area, especially near the seabreeze boundary.
236 AM EDT Sun Aug 10 2025 High pressure off the coast will bring increasing heat and humidity through mid week but it will not be as oppressive as it was earlier in the summer.
- A weak frontal system brings cooler, near normal temperatures with afternoon and evening thunderstorms chances (15-40%) through the middle of the week. (Today through Monday afternoon) An elongated upper high stretching along the U. /Mexico border will hang on for one more day before an upper trough moving into the norther Great Plains erodes the eastern periphery and pushes the center back west. The trough pushes a weak cold front into the northwestern CWA this afternoon, and combined with strong daytime heating will cause isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop from southeastern New Mexico to the Davis Mountains. Monday upper heights decrease and cooler and more moist gulf air gets advected into West Texas dropping temperatures back down closer to normal with highs expected to be in the 90s for most areas.
Although much of the area should remain dry due to the influence of high pressure, daytime heating could prompt a few showers or storms to develop, mainly along the mountains, this afternoon and evening. High temperatures are expected to rise above normal, with mid 70s to 80s in the mountains and mid 80s to low 90s in the lowlands. Mild overnight lows should then range from mid 50s to 60s in the mountains and mid to upper 60s in the lowlands.