Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
This is an area that should see some compressional warming ahead of our cold front which was still northwest of the Ouachitas of SE OK and SW AR but will be moving into the Ouachitas late this afternoon. The clearer skies will work with the warmer airmass to set up another warm, possibly record breaking, afternoon with regional highs in the low to mid 80s. Low temperatures behind the front will respond in kind, dropping more than the past several nights into the mid 40s to low 50s across our northern zones and warmer to the south ahead of the front. /57/ (Sunday Night through Saturday) The boundary will push through our region to the south overnight Sunday night, bringing cooler temperatures and northeast winds.
The first in a series of Arctic cold fronts moves into the state on Sunday.
Additionally, the ridge placement just off the Nature Coast and Big Bend region led to a more easterly flow from Tampa Bay southward, pushing the fog offshore. However, coastal cameras suggest that fog is still present over the cooler coastal waters. However, fog is likely to spread farther south again tonight as high pressure remains in control with light winds and seas through at least the middle of the week.
Over our local waters, warm moist air over the cooler waters will lead to sea fog once again this evening into tonight with a high chance for visibilities to drop below a mile.
Windy this evening ahead of a cold front. As an area of low pressure quickly moves east-northeast across the Great Lakes and Northeast CONUS tonight, a trailing cold front will move southeastward across our region. Behind the cold front, clouds will slowly clear out through day with clearing conditions gradually prevailing as high pressure builds in across the forecast area. Temperatures will be cooler, but still slightly below normal due to the upper and mid-level ridging across Florida through the Southeast CONUS.
The colder inland areas will drop below freezing each night.
1032 AM CST Sat Feb 8 2025 Updated at 1030 AM CST Sat Feb 8 2025 - Low chance of freezing drizzle across far NW AR tonight.
Cold front moving through Kansas this morning will be knocking on our door by Sunday.
1136 AM CST Sat Feb 8 2025 (Today through Sunday) The 500 mb cut-off low will continue to linger over the western Gulf through late tonight. This mid to upper level low will slowly drift eastward and weakens on Sunday. At the surface, expect light to moderate southerly to southeasterly winds to continue, becoming gusty this afternoon and Sunday afternoon as broad high pressure across the Gulf interacts with low pressure across the Southern Plains. High temperatures today and Sunday will range from the 70s at the beaches, mid to upper 80s across the coastal counties and the lower 90s across the western portions of the CWA.
1131 AM CST Sat Feb 8 2025 - A wintry mix of freezing drizzle and light snow is expected into this afternoon, which may lead to slick pavement mainly on untreated surfaces.
858 AM PST Sat Feb 8 2025 Drier and a little warmer this weekend with weak offshore flow.
The exception for this will be across the Bighorn Basin and the lower elevations of Johnson County which were lucky enough to be stuck behind the stalled front all day yesterday; these areas will warm by about 10 degrees.
Warm weather will end tonight as a cold front sweeps across the Mid-South.
As noted in prev discussion, an upper trough was approaching from the northwest this morning, and can be seen on IR satellite imagery as enhanced clouds in eastern WA and ne OR. Trough is expected to produce snow showers in the northern half of our CWA this afternoon and evening.
Some localized areas could see much cooler temperatures given the fresh snow, clearing skies, and light winds.
(Now through Tonight) With the warm front north of the CWA, a surge of warm and moist air has advected into the region. We'll this warm and benign pattern start to transition tonight as a cold front reaches NW AL around 00z. For now, will continue to keep thunder out of the forecast and keep the showers prevailing in the forecast with the approaching cold front from the west.
Below freezing temperatures will continue overnight across the area.
208 PM PST Sat Feb 8 2025 Drier and a little warmer this weekend with weak offshore flow.
202 PM MST Sat Feb 8 2025 - Light snow showers will continue across the region through the weekend with the highest amounts expected in the mountains.
Despite some lingering showers earlier this morning, high pressure builds bringing dry and cold weather to Northwestern California. Many interior locations will see lows in the low 20s with conditions in the teens for Trinity County. Some spotty cloud cover is still being observed over the higher terrain, but all terminals are experiencing VFR conditions with mostly clear skies.
Meanwhile, cold front is expected to track across the state of Texas tomorrow, but is expected to stall over the mid Texas Coast late Sunday night. At the mid levels, a mid-level low centered over the Lower Texas coast will continue to gradually shift away from the region and weaken.
516 PM CST Sat Feb 8 2025 Warm weather will end tonight as a cold front sweeps across the Mid-South.
High pressure remains stretched across Florida producing continued rain-free conditions and mild temperatures overnight. Areas of fog will be possible once again overnight for the eastern gulf waters and land areas, with the highest coverage inland and north of Tampa Bay. Sea fog will remain a marine hazard for the next several days as high pressure and lights winds and seas continue.
The mid-evening sfc analysis indicates that our cold front is making steady progress SE across the region this evening, and extends from S of a PSN/JSO, to 4F2, to SHV, to MNE, to SE of an ELD line as of 0415Z.
252 AM EST Sun Feb 9 2025 A cold front will move southeast across NC through midday. High pressure will wedge south into the area tonight and will remain in place as moisture repeatedly overspreads the area through mid to late week. Overview: While it took longer than previously expected, the warm front will retreat north into VA by 09-10z, just in advance of the incoming cold front from the NW.
256 AM CST Sun Feb 9 2025 Today and tonight: A cold front is currently pushing southward across the area. So far, shower activity has been limited along the front, but it is ushering in low clouds and a cooler airmass in northerly CAA. The front will be clear of the entire area by tonight, with cooler conditions areawide. That being said temperatures will trend a few degrees cooler north of I-20 with southern counties/parishes seeing a continuation of relatively balmy temperatures.
Gusty gradient winds of up to 30 mph will persist overnight as a cold front continues to push into the deep south through Sunday morning. As the front settles overnight, low temperatures will be considerable cooler across the northern portions of the area falling into the mid to upper 40s a near 15 degree difference than the previous night.
- Light snow showers will develop across western WY today with the heaviest snow remaining in the higher elevations.
852 PM PST Sat Feb 8 2025 Drier and a little warmer this weekend with weak offshore flow.
1102 PM CST Sat Feb 8 2025 Warm weather will end tonight as a cold front sweeps across the Mid-South.
Low temperatures tonight may be slightly cooler than previous forecast given continued clear skies and recent fresh snowfall. The first in a series of Arctic cold fronts moves into the state on Sunday.
Afternoon highs on Friday will be several degrees warmer compared to today, as moist, warm air is advected ahead of the front. Northeasterly winds gradually shift from the east to then south through Friday, as cold front approaches the region.
- A cold front moving through tonight will bring flurries at times from this evening into Friday afternoon.
Currently - Cool conditions continue across the Keys this evening with temperatures broadly near 60 and dew points in the lower to mid 40s. Short Term Update - The previously mentioned ridge will shift eastward out into the Atlantic overnight in a fairly progressive pattern. The shallow gulf and bay waters have cooled substantial into the lower to mid 60s in wake of the recent cool stretch. Surface ridging over the eastern United States will push out to sea overnight. Cooler waters in wake of earlier cold fronts will likely delay the eastward shift until Friday over and near the Florida Bay area.
359 AM EST Fri Jan 10 2025 High pressure will bring some welcome sunshine today.
311 AM EST Fri Jan 10 2025 Low pressure will continue to move slowly east of the Canadian Maritimes today. High pressure briefly builds in tonight.
Expect light snow/flurries to linger through about mid morning across eastern parts of the area as the 700 mb trough/deformation axis passes through, but we are not expecting much in the way of additional accumulations with this activity. Some of the highest snow totals in our area were found across south- central and southeast Oklahoma, where as much as 8 to locally near 10 inches was measured. Highs are expected to be in the low to mid 30s, with readings approaching 40 degrees in our far southwest.
308 AM EST Fri Jan 10 2025 High pressure will bring some welcome sunshine today.
335 AM EST Fri Jan 10 2025 Arctic high pressure will settle into the lower Middle Atlantic today.
Some additional light snow or light freezing drizzle will be possible overnight. - Impacts to roads may worsen some, especially in outlying areas as temperatures fall below freezing tonight.
Highs this afternoon reach into the lower 30s, supporting some compacting and melting, especially on area roadways by this afternoon.
1251 AM EST Fri Jan 10 2025 High pressure will move off to the east tonight.
Some additional light snow or light freezing drizzle will be possible overnight. - Road impacts will continue into Friday morning as temperatures are at or below freezing in many areas.
While more patches may develop overnight, widespread valley coverage is not expected due to increasing high clouds ahead of an approaching upper-level trough, forecasted to arrive Friday afternoon. 5â of snow accumulation may occur on cold grassy surfaces, but it is unlikely to stick to main roads as surface temperatures will remain above freezing.
357 AM CST Fri Jan 10 2025 - Mostly sunny skies and seasonably cool temperatures (highs near freezing) today.
513 AM CST Fri Jan 10 2025 Today through tonight: winter weather is always a forecast challenge in our region, and this event has been no exception with precipitation type bouncing around a good bit along and north of the Highway 82 corridor, especially in the Golden Triangle region where snow has managed to accumulate more efficiently than expected. Have maintained the warning/advisory areas and opted to end them sooner as temperatures look to climb above freezing later this morning.
Accumulations of 2 to 4 inches is possible across portions of the Pine Ridge region.
Temperatures today will remain cold, but most places will get a few degrees above freezing which will help start the melting process.
- With temperatures near the freezing point, precipitation could fall as rain, snow, or freezing rain.
A cold front with a line of showers and some MVFR cigs/vsbys will pass over Tampa Bay area terminals starting around 08Z and then slowly progress southward through the rest of the morning. A short period of slightly warmer air moves into the region later today into Saturday. As high pressure moves off the southeast U. A brief period of warmer temps closer to average expected today and tonight. In the wake of this frontal system, high pressure will build in over the area producing rain-free and cooler conditions once again for the remainder of the weekend.
427 AM MST Fri Jan 10 2025 - Snow this weekend with areas of hazardous travel due to snow/blowing snow - Strongest, gustiest winds Saturday - Heavy upslope snow for the favored areas of the northern Black Hills this weekend - Heavy snow possible over northeastern Wyoming 09z surface analysis had weak ridge over the northern Plains. Water vapour loop had upper ridge spilling from the northern Rockies into the northern Plains ahead of upper trough coming onshore via BC.
The last of the accumulating snow ended overnight as the main body of this latest storm system shifts east into the Lower Mississippi Valley where high impact winter conditions were occurring. Conditions across western Kansas will improve dramatically today as a positive-tilted upper level ridge moves across the Rockies and adjacent High Plains. The upper level ridge will be quickly replaced by another upper level trough moving in from the northwest, however this wave will be characteristically broad and quick-moving across the Central CONUS Saturday and Saturday Night, thus large scale forcing for ascent will be weak at best, so precipitation chances will also be minimal at best. The low level thermodynamic profile would support a rain/snow mix with 850mb temperatures near or slightly below 0C.
On Saturday, downslope southwest winds will prevail, but a cold front will move south across the area during the afternoon. Highs should be in the lower 50's off of the snowpack with generally 40's or upper 30's on the snowpack.
(Today and tonight) Upper level trough over the Panhandle will move off to the east of the region this morning. The trough will pull a reinforcing cold front through area today. With temperatures hovering near or above freezing little to no accumulation expected. High temperatures this afternoon will be in the 30s and 40s, with lows dipping into the lower 20s.
- A few slick spots are possible during the morning commute where surface temperatures dip below freezing.
Maybe a small high wind threat, but gusts in the 40-60 mph range in exposed areas with up to 75 mph in the higher elevations and the wave hot spots looks likely.
High pressure will start to build over Arizona today with gradually warming temperatures and less wind.
633 AM CST Fri Jan 10 2025 Today through tonight: winter weather is always a forecast challenge in our region, and this event has been no exception with precipitation type bouncing around a good bit along and north of the Highway 82 corridor, especially in the Golden Triangle region where snow has managed to accumulate more efficiently than expected. Have maintained the warning/advisory areas and opted to end them sooner as temperatures look to climb above freezing later this morning.
Most of what's falling this afternoon is rain, with some freezing rain, sleet, and the occasional snow flake mixed in. This cold air advection will begin to erode the warm nose at the low to mid levels of the atmosphere, allowing for a more favorable profile for snow. However, snow accumulations may remain low, especially on roadways, due to near or above freezing surface temperatures for some areas. Temperatures tonight are forecast to stay right around or a few degrees below freezing. But with the cold rain, frozen precip, and lack of solar radiation today, we could see some ice on roads tomorrow morning, especially on bridges and overpasses. Friday will be slightly warmer, but temperatures will still remain below normal with highs in the mid 30s to low 40s.
Morning stratus and patchy dense freezing fog persists this morning across the Snake Plain, Magic Valley, Teton Valley, Island Park and portions of the southeast highlands. While showers will remain in northwest flow across the central mountains and along the Divide overnight, the bulk of the snow shifts to the higher elevations elsewhere. For the central mountains, we should see anywhere to from a Trace to 2", with around 4" on the highest ridgelines. Temperatures tomorrow will trend a bit cooler overall, EXPECT where the inversion has been holding. We will actually mix that out and those locations will push to near freezing.
633 AM EST Fri Jan 10 2025 High pressure will bring some welcome sunshine today. However, duel low pressure systems will then bring a round of light snow tonight and Saturday to the region. High pressure over the region will give way to to duel low pressure systems with one in the Great Lakes and the other moving across the southeast portion of the country. With some sunshine, temperatures should be a few degrees warmer today well into the 20's. NW flow will continue across the region as the low pressure system scoots off to the east and a ridge builds in from the west.
A low pressure system is expected to bring breezy conditions to the forecast area and light snow showers to northern Nevada tonight and early Saturday.
247 AM MST Fri Jan 10 2025 - Snow this weekend with areas of hazardous travel due to snow/blowing snow - Strongest, gustiest winds Saturday - Heavy upslope snow for the favored areas of the northern Black Hills this weekend - Heavy snow possible over northeastern Wyoming 09z surface analysis had weak ridge over the northern Plains. Water vapour loop had upper ridge spilling from the northern Rockies into the northern Plains ahead of upper trough coming onshore via BC.
A positive-tilted trough is exiting the Dakotas this morning while a second, deeper, trough is ejecting northeast out of Texas. Just as this snow tapers off, the lagging Dakotas trough races through after sunset and provides another period of light snow. Because of its swift forward pace, this trough will bring little additional accumulation but breezy conditions will develop tonight as will lake effect.
Precip is all snow north of a Tunica to Tupelo line with sleet and perhaps a little freezing rain mixed in to the south of that line. Expect a decent amount of sleet and a little freezing rain across the southern tier of the forecast area through at least 9 am before precip becomes all rain south of a Tupelo to Clarksdale line. Expect lesser amounts as you head south into north MS due to the low level warm air mentioned earlier.
Expect light snow/flurries to linger through about mid morning across eastern parts of the area as the 700 mb trough/deformation axis passes through, but we are not expecting much in the way of additional accumulations with this activity. Some of the highest snow totals in our area were found across south- central and southeast Oklahoma, where as much as 8 to locally near 10 inches was measured. Highs are expected to be in the low to mid 30s, with readings approaching 40 degrees in our far southwest. Will need to watch for (freezing) fog development late tonight into Saturday morning as many of the hi-res models hint at this potential, although confidence on this scenario is not very high.
636 AM EST Fri Jan 10 2025 High pressure will provide the area a break from the wind and cold today, before a fast moving storm tracking north of the Great Lakes brings some light snow to the Keystone state late tonight into early Saturday.
901 AM EST Fri Jan 10 2025 Low pressure will continue to move slowly east of the Canadian Maritimes today. High pressure briefly builds in tonight. Low pressure will pass well to our south and east Saturday through Saturday night.
First, a steady 2 to 3 inch snow for most, beginning late this morning and ending by the middle of the night, as mid and upper level moisture streaming in from the southwest is lifted by phasing upper-level troughs.
539 AM CST Fri Jan 10 2025 - Mostly sunny skies and seasonably cool temperatures (highs near freezing) today.
We should see this snow move east of the FA as the axis of the upper trough moves to the east.
239 PM CST Fri Jan 10 2025 - Chance (30-40%) for a wintry mix of rain, freezing rain, and snow Saturday afternoon and Saturday night. A longwave, mid-level trough extends from Ontario, Canada into northern Mexico this afternoon with mid-level ridging over the western US. Surface temperatures will be hovering right around freezing and will be the difference between rain and freezing rain. 05" or less of liquid), but impacts are still possible from this wintry mix, especially if freezing rain is the dominant precipitation type. Models depict westerly winds across north central Kansas leading to some WAA keeping temperatures above freezing through the afternoon, while areas farther east will flirt with the 32 degree mark through much of the day and into the evening.
/13 (Now through Saturday) An upper level trough over the Southern Plains will slowly move into the Mississippi Valley today. Temperatures are a few degrees warmer than previously forecast, with obs showing temps in the near 40. As the lower levels saturate, our temps may drop a couple of degrees, but will remain above freezing. This will limit cooling overnight, but CAA will allow temps to drop into the upper 20s across our northern areas to the lower 30s along the coast.
Updated at 242 PM CST Fri Jan 10 2025 - There is a medium-high (40-70%) chance for dense and/or freezing fog across south-central into southeast Oklahoma early Saturday morning. As a result, temperatures have warmed above freezing for most locations, allowing for snowmelt and improved travel conditions. Combined with sub-freezing temperatures, freezing fog (slick roadways) is possible where dense fog (visibility <1/4-mile) develops.
309 PM EST Fri Jan 10 2025 An axis of high pressure slides across the area tonight.
Some refreezing on untreated roads is possible overnight.
This has been supported by the UAH-UPSTORM soundings that show the vertical temperatures profile in HSV remaining just below 0C all morning! As of 930 AM CST, however, we are seeing evidence of a change over for areas south of the Tennessee River on doppler radar and observational data, with a change over to sleet and freezing rain reported by trained spotters across Cullman County. Think that the sleet/freezing rain will be favored south of the Tennessee River especially during the afternoon, but it may also make as far north as the Shoals and the HSV/DCU metro for a brief period of time.
Tonight and Saturday Afternoon satellite imagery shows gradually increasing clouds across the region as an upper level trough continues to move closer to the region this afternoon. The highest winds/gusts will be focused across the higher terrain areas in these zones but the lower valleys certainly won't be exempt from the wind. For the central mountains, we should see anywhere to from a Trace to 2", with around 4" on the highest ridgelines. Most of the snow will taper off by mid-afternoon tomorrow leaving just some lingering snow showers across some of the higher terrain areas in the east into late Saturday but not much in the way of additional accumulation appears likely.
Previous Discussion Issued: 603 AM EST Fri Jan 10 2025 Ridging at the surface and aloft should provide Central PA with dry and slightly milder weather today, along with light winds. However, warm advection ahead of a digging upper trough over the Grt Lks will spread thickening/lowering clouds into the area. See no reason to deviate from NBM maxtemps, which range from the low 20s over the Laurel Highlands, where clouds will thicken first, to the low 30s across the Susq Valley. -Added Cambria County to the winter wx advisory Fairly strong large scale forcing is anticipated ahead of the upstream trough tonight into Sat AM. 5 inches, but up to an inch on Laurel Ridge west of Johnstown and Somerset.
Updated at 221 PM CST Fri Jan 10 2025 - Chilly tonight, then breezy and much warmer on Saturday. While this will bring notably warmer temperatures compared to today, the prior-mentioned snowpack will limit the degree of warming compared to snow-free areas.
- There is also a chance of a wintry mix of rain, freezing rain, and snow tonight through Saturday morning southwest into south central.