Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Additionally, this system will usher in cooler air, and this will result in snowfall for elevations mainly above 4500 feet, so not expecting much impacts from snowfall.
617 AM CDT Mon May 12 2025 (Today through Tuesday) Upper-level ridging looks to build over the Southern Plains through the period. Southeasterly surface flow and clear skies will allow temperatures to climb to the low to mid 90s this afternoon, and high temperatures to climb to the upper 90s to low 100s Tuesday.
Have updated the near term forecast to account for increased shower development near the upper low center. /EC/ Today and Tonight: Early morning satellite imagery/RAP analysis showed the circulation around a closed low centered over our southwest Mississippi zones. Drier air wrapping around and into the low pressure system has led to much less precipitation over our CWA early this morning as compared to last night. The low pressure system will continue to help develop light rain and light drizzle at times this morning. Temperatures will be cooler than normal again today and tonight.
611 AM CDT Mon May 12 2025 (Today through Tuesday) Key Messages: - Near normal temperatures today, above normal Tuesday Onshore flow returns today advecting a warmer airmass as an upper- level ridge begins to move into the region. As our moisture increases, the aforementioned upper-level ridge will continue moving eastward with the ridge axis over West Texas Tuesday. Increased subsidence from the ridge and the increase in moisture will promote heat index values between 100-108 degrees for most of South Texas.
630 AM CDT Mon May 12 2025 We are finally getting to the end of this pesky upper level low as it will begin to slowly lift northeast today. As the low lifts out, we will gradually enter more westerly and eventually northwesterly winds aloft today through Tuesday ushering in increasingly drier air. By Tuesday, the upper low will have moved into a more favorable location for drier air finally clearing things out across the area. BB-8 The pattern finally changes for the middle to latter part of the week as an upper-level ridge builds over the Gulf. This, along with high pressure at the surface, will give way to much drier and warmer conditions.
Today will continue this weeks trend of being cooler than yesterday across North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana. By tonight, a stronger upper level trof will begin to approach Southwest MT. Enough cold air will move in with the trof, that snow levels will fall to around 6500 feet or so. Overall snow is expected to accumulate in the higher elevations of Southwest MT tonight, thus a winter weather advisory was issued for that area.
Light to moderate showers along with gusty winds over the higher terrain. Followed by drier and warmer conditions by mid week. The low pressure will moves over the area today and keep driving southeastward through Tuesday. Isolated thunderstorms are possible (15-25% chance) this afternoon over the higher terrain north of Cape Mendocino, especially in Trinity County.
We are finally getting to the end of this pesky upper level low as it will begin to slowly lift northeast today. As the low lifts out, we will gradually enter more westerly and eventually northwesterly winds aloft today through Tuesday ushering in increasingly drier air. By Tuesday, the upper low will have moved into a more favorable location for drier air finally clearing things out across the area. BB-8 The pattern finally changes for the middle to latter part of the week as an upper-level ridge builds over the Gulf. This, along with high pressure at the surface, will give way to much drier and warmer conditions.
623 AM CDT Mon May 12 2025 Today and Tonight: Early morning satellite imagery/RAP analysis showed the circulation around a closed low centered over our southwest Mississippi zones. Drier air wrapping around and into the low pressure system has led to much less precipitation over our CWA early this morning as compared to last night. The low pressure system will continue to help develop light rain and light drizzle at times this morning. Temperatures will be cooler than normal again today and tonight.
609 AM CDT Mon May 12 2025 Scattered SHRA continues to wrap around the north side of the upper low. Chances for SHRA and isolated TSRA will remain fairly high through this Mon afternoon into this evening before this upper low begins to exit to the east for Tue. upper level ridging will increase over the region. Upper ridging will increase further for Wed. flow aloft will transition to the SW over the region as the upper ridging shifts east. This SW flow aloft will set up another active pattern across the region for later in the week as a cold front approaches from the NW. (12Z TAFS) Slow moving upper level low will continue to influence area terminals by providing scattered showers and thunderstorms through the day.
By tonight, a stronger upper level trof will begin to approach Southwest MT. Enough cold air will move in with the trof, that snow levels will fall to around 6500 feet or so. Overall snow is expected to accumulate in the higher elevations of Southwest MT tonight, thus a winter weather advisory was issued for that area.
633 AM CDT Mon May 12 2025 (Today through Tuesday) Upper low looks to be centered over the northwest portion of our area early this morning with upper ridging to our east, north and west. At the surface, low pressure was over northern Mississippi, with high pressure over the southern Rockies and off the Carolina coast. The trough moving into the western part of the country will finally boot the upper low out of our area later today and tonight. Sunny and warmer on Tuesday with reasonable humidity levels.
The low pressure system currently located over the Pacific Northwest will continue to move inland today. Some of the lower valleys will flirt with 90 degrees this afternoon, especially in southeast Utah. Tuesday, broad southwesterly flow will remain over the area thanks to a longwave trough situated over Idaho and Nevada. The location of this trough will cause the surface pressure gradient to continue to tighten bringing another day of gusty winds. Some light precip will fall over the northern valleys and NE Utah ahead of the trough and surface cold front.
614 AM EDT Mon May 12 2025 (Today and tonight) The upper low that has been nearly stationary to our west over the past few days will finally begin to move eastward today and tonight.
Otherwise temps will be even warmer today with readings in the mid 80's to lower 90's across nern CO.
401 AM CDT Mon May 12 2025 Today and Tonight: Early morning satellite imagery/RAP analysis showed the circulation around a closed low centered over our southwest Mississippi zones. Drier air wrapping around and into the low pressure system has led to much less precipitation over our CWA early this morning as compared to last night. The low pressure system will continue to help develop light rain and light drizzle at times this morning. Temperatures will be cooler than normal again today and tonight.
A large, slow moving, closed, upper low is centered over the lower Mississippi Valley this afternoon. The upper low center will crawl northeast to the vicinity of OH by the end of Tuesday night. The mid/upper level drying will mostly be refilled in with moisture again on Tuesday, and with diurnal warming destabilization beneath the upper low, showers/thunderstorms are again expected to develop.
Showers and occasional embedded lightning storms continue to move northeastward as a weak cold front approaches the western Peninsula. The highest rainfall totals observed since midnight now range 2-4.
A mid-upper level ridge will build over South Texas in the short term resuling in a quick transition to summer like conditions.
/EC/ Today and Tonight: Early morning satellite imagery/RAP analysis showed the circulation around a closed low centered over our southwest Mississippi zones. Drier air wrapping around and into the low pressure system has led to much less precipitation over our CWA early this morning as compared to last night. The low pressure system will continue to help develop light rain and light drizzle at times this morning. Temperatures will be cooler than normal again today and tonight.
1225 PM EDT Mon May 12 2025 Warm start to the week with high pressure overhead today.
1225 PM CDT Mon May 12 2025 We are finally getting to the end of this pesky upper level low as it will begin to slowly lift northeast today. As the low lifts out, we will gradually enter more westerly and eventually northwesterly winds aloft today through Tuesday ushering in increasingly drier air. By Tuesday, the upper low will have moved into a more favorable location for drier air finally clearing things out across the area. BB-8 The pattern finally changes for the middle to latter part of the week as an upper-level ridge builds over the Gulf. This, along with high pressure at the surface, will give way to much drier and warmer conditions.
250 PM CDT Mon May 12 2025 Today will be the last day of the active showers and thunderstorms from the stalled out upper level lower over the area. Tonight the low will fill and move to the northeast, allowing ridging to build into the area over the next 48 hours.
303 PM CDT Mon May 12 2025 Late afternoon through tonight: The upper low that is responsible for the past few days of wet weather is now beginning to make a move northeast, and we are seeing the shower/thunderstorm development become a little more confined and diurnal in nature.
A large stacked low pressure system continues to spin across the lower Mississippi River valley while an attendant cold front begins to push west across the Florida panhandle and the Gulf. The morning upper air observation did indicate marginal lapse-rates but, with better than expected surface heating (highs into the low 80s), a more favorable environment (i. Though the drier airmass aloft may mitigate deeper convection initially, a few strong storms characterized by winds of 30-50 mph may develop ahead of and along the cold front as it moves across the region this afternoon and early evening. Lows tonight fall into the low/mid 60s inland while readings at the coast hover in the upper 60s to around 70F.
- Next round of precipitation arrives late this evening as a cold front begins to make its way through Eastern Idaho.
1233 PM CDT Mon May 12 2025 (Today through Tuesday) Upper-level ridging looks to build over the Southern Plains through the period. Southeasterly surface flow and clear skies will allow temperatures to climb to the low to mid 90s this afternoon, and high temperatures to climb to the upper 90s to low 100s Tuesday.
- Warmer weather is on tap for this week. (The rest of today) Upper low that has been planted over the Lower Mississippi Valley the last several days will finally lift northeast during the day today. Forecast soundings do show some modest elevated instability with cooler temps aloft, so a storm or two could produce some briefly gusty winds or very small hail. For the update this morning, adjusted PoPs this afternoon to align with latest hi res guidance, shifting better chances further east as the upper low tracks away from the region.
High pressure over central TX providing subsidence will rapidly serve up summer-like conditions and maintain dry, sunny skies. Tuesday night, low temperatures don't recover as much, a couple degrees warmer than tonight in the 70s across the CWA. gov/heatrisk/ An enhanced pressure gradient between a low pressure entering the Central Plains and the aforementioned high pressure will increase sustained winds and reinforce southerly flow.
High pressure will settle back in by mid week and temperatures will begin to climb with the 90s making a return by mid week.
KBYX radar detects a mass of showers in our deep Gulf waters drifting northeast past the Lower Keys while residual showers from this morning continue to bubble in the Florida Straits off of the Upper Keys. High cloud cover has mostly held together over the Keys today resulting in some lower temperatures in the lower to mid 80s. However, the little clearing over the Lower Keys did result in some highs reaching the upper 80s. The area of deep troughing centered about the Mississippi River Valley will start lifting north tonight. As the deep layer troughing exits to the north, high pressure will start filling in over Florida.
(This evening through Tuesday Night) A moderating/warming trend begins tonight as southerly winds resume and mid-upper ridging builds into the area. With a warmer start to the day and plenty of sunshine, we'll begin seeing daytime highs top out in the beloved 90s.
Tuesday will be transition day with the upper trough moving south of the forecast area.
138 PM EDT Mon May 12 2025 Warm start to the week with high pressure overhead today.
Gusty winds are expected, and given the low level lapse rates, isolated damaging wind remains possible. (Tuesday through Tuesday Night) The upper low will pivot into TN and KY on Tuesday, placing the TN valley in west-northwest flow at 5h. Another spoke of vorticity will drop around the low during the afternoon from our northwest. This along with low to mid level convergence along the 8h trough and a pseudo warm front at the surface should provide sources of lift for more showers and thunderstorms.
DialH (Today and Tuesday) A cold front with upper-level support will be the name of the game over the next two days. Said cold front remains just off the California Coast with rain just beginning to reach the ground in Mendocino County (just to the north of our CWA). 00" respectively with locally higher totals in the higher terrain of the Bay Area. Interior Monterey and San Benito Counties may not receive measurable precipitation, but light drizzle can be expected, especially in the higher terrain with the help of orographic lift. Strong and gusty onshore winds will continue with the strongest winds expected in the higher terrain, gaps, and passes where gusts up to 40mph are expected.
- An upper level low will continue to move slowly out of the area tonight over the region with clouds, some light rain or drizzle. - High pressure building in will lead to drying conditions and a warming trend becoming hot and humid by mid week.
A sprinkle cannot be ruled out there either but any precipitation will have trouble reaching the ground due to a significant amount of dry air in the low levels. After 6AM, temperatures begin to warm in earnest with highs today generally in the low/mid 70s. High pressure amplifies today with strong subsidence over the North Country. Clear skies will support strong radiation inversions, but a slight bump in dew points over will help keep tonight's lows warmer in 40s and low 50s. A trough will be moving along the backside of the upper ridge and could support a few isolated thunderstorms towards the St Lawrence Valley of NY.
247 PM EDT Mon May 12 2025 Warm start to the week with high pressure overhead today.
/EC/ Have updated the near term forecast to account for increased shower development near the upper low center. /EC/ Today and Tonight: Early morning satellite imagery/RAP analysis showed the circulation around a closed low centered over our southwest Mississippi zones. Drier air wrapping around and into the low pressure system has led to much less precipitation over our CWA early this morning as compared to last night. The low pressure system will continue to help develop light rain and light drizzle at times this morning. Temperatures will be cooler than normal again today and tonight.
Satellite imagery shows an upper low center moving onshore along the Oregon Coast this morning with precipitation spreading into central Oregon. Isolated to scattered showers across SW ID, mainly in the higher terrain.
Discussion: Showers and embedded thunderstorms continue to stream north across the TN valley and southern Appalachian region this afternoon as we remain situated on the NE periphery of an upper low over central Mississippi. Tomorrow, the upper low lifts northeast towards middle TN or thereabouts.
Residual dry air continues to hang on late this afternoon in the lower levels of the atmosphere. However, that will start to change tonight, as high pressure gradually moves farther offshore, allowing a deepening and moist south-southeast flow to develop across the Commonwealth.
344 PM EDT Mon May 12 2025 High pressure will continue to drift east of New England through much of the week. The end of the work week into the weekend will feature yet another slow moving low pressure system that will increase rain chances.
1252 PM CDT Mon May 12 2025 (Today through Tuesday) Key Messages: - Near normal temperatures today, above normal Tuesday Onshore flow returns today advecting a warmer airmass as an upper- level ridge begins to move into the region. As our moisture increases, the aforementioned upper-level ridge will continue moving eastward with the ridge axis over West Texas Tuesday. Increased subsidence from the ridge and the increase in moisture will promote heat index values between 100-108 degrees for most of South Texas.
213 PM MDT Mon May 12 2025 KEY MESSAGES: - Snow in the higher terrain of Lemhi county and southwest Montana tonight into Tuesday morning - Cool and showery conditions continue through the week. A broad trough will continue to settle over the Northern Rockies tonight into Tuesday. The high mountain passes across Lemhi county is anticipated to have minor to moderate impacts by morning, so a winter weather advisory has been issued. The broad trough of low pressure settles over the region for the remainder of the work week keeping temperatures cool for this time of year along with periods of widespread showers.
* Much cooler conditions with areas of mountain snow and valley rain showers are expected through Tuesday. * A warming and drying trend returns mid-week before another low pressure system provides more chances for showers this weekend. The core of an upper low will then continue to push across northern Nevada and California providing much cooler conditions along with chances for rain and mountain showers. Much cooler weather will be in place through Tuesday with highs dipping 10-15 degrees below season averages with highs around 60 degrees for W.
As we begin to cool tonight temperatures will dip down into the low 60s across most sites, with the northwestern quadrant holding onto warmer (mid 60s) conditions. /OAJ/ Late afternoon through tonight: The upper low that is responsible for the past few days of wet weather is now beginning to make a move northeast, and we are seeing the shower/thunderstorm development become a little more confined and diurnal in nature.
A mid-upper level ridge will build over South Texas in the short term resulting in a quick transition to summer like conditions.
A few light showers and sprinklettes remain from the multi day beneficial rainfall event as the upper low lifts through the Deep South this evening. High pressure will settle back in by mid week and temperatures will begin to climb with the 90s making a return by mid week.
A late season low pressure system continues to move through the area. Low temperatures range from the mid 30's to the low 40's across the area tonight. If temperatures do dip into the low to mid 30's, it will likely only be for a couple hours before sunrise, which should limit frost impacts.
711 PM CDT Mon May 12 2025 Late afternoon through tonight: The upper low that is responsible for the past few days of wet weather is now beginning to make a move northeast, and we are seeing the shower/thunderstorm development become a little more confined and diurnal in nature.
Lingering moisture with an upper low passing to the south will keep scattered showers and possibly an isolated afternoon thunderstorm in the forecast today. Upper level ridging will start to build into the area midweek for the return of drier conditions. A broad upper level trough will bring showery weather back to our area into the end of the week.
734 PM EDT Mon May 12 2025 It will remain dry through tonight as high pressure off the eastern seaboard is in control. As of 715 PM EDT, high pressure, located off the eastern seaboard, will continue to depart off to the east this evening but maintain dry weather through tonight with just some passing high clouds. A moisture-starved backdoor cold front will try dropping down from the north for the overnight hours, but this front will be stalling and washing out over the area for tonight with no precip. Any showers associated with an approaching upper level low will remain to the south overnight.
643 PM CDT Mon May 12 2025 (This evening through Tuesday Night) A moderating/warming trend begins tonight as southerly winds resume and mid-upper ridging builds into the area. With a warmer start to the day and plenty of sunshine, we'll begin seeing daytime highs top out in the beloved 90s.
716 PM EDT Mon May 12 2025 It will remain dry through tonight as high pressure off the eastern seaboard is in control. As of 715 PM EDT, high pressure, located off the eastern seaboard, will continue to depart off to the east this evening but maintain dry weather through tonight with just some passing high clouds. A moisture-starved backdoor cold front will try dropping down from the north for the overnight hours, but this front will be stalling and washing out over the area for tonight with no precip. Any showers associated with an approaching upper level low will remain to the south overnight.
840 PM MDT Mon May 12 2025 Scattered showers continue across east-central Oregon into west-central Idaho, affecting areas near Baker, McCall, and Cambridge.
It remains to be seen if this band will skirt just west and north of the Lower Keys or if the Lower Keys will see a decent amount of rainfall. This is allowing winds to shift more westerly and we expect the south to southwest winds we're currently seeing to shift accordingly as the trough moves through. Deep troughing centered over the northern Gulf coast will lift northward overnight continuing to pump in abundant moisture through the forecast area. As the low lifts toward the northeast during the middle of the week, higher pressure will be able to fill in behind it, encouraging drier weather and slackening breezes.
625 PM CDT Mon May 12 2025 Today will be the last day of the active showers and thunderstorms from the stalled out upper level lower over the area. Tonight the low will fill and move to the northeast, allowing ridging to build into the area over the next 48 hours.
757 PM EDT Mon May 12 2025 High pressure will continue to drift east of New England through much of the week. The end of the work week into the weekend will feature yet another slow moving low pressure system that will increase rain chances.
601 PM CDT Mon May 12 2025 - An upper level low will continue to move slowly out of the area tonight over the region with clouds, some light rain or drizzle. - High pressure building in will lead to drying conditions and a warming trend becoming hot and humid by mid week.
1211 AM CDT Tue May 13 2025 Today will be the last day of the active showers and thunderstorms from the stalled out upper level lower over the area. Tonight the low will fill and move to the northeast, allowing ridging to build into the area over the next 48 hours.
Discussion: The slowly moving closed upper level low will continue to impact the area today with unsettled conditions continuing. The surface front responsible for yesterday will push north and east of the area, but we will continue to be under the influence of the upper level low. Daytime heating and being situated directly under the trough, will fire showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening before tapering off.
1232 AM CDT Tue May 13 2025 (This evening through Tuesday Night) A moderating/warming trend begins tonight as southerly winds resume and mid-upper ridging builds into the area. With a warmer start to the day and plenty of sunshine, we'll begin seeing daytime highs top out in the beloved 90s.
1243 AM EDT Tue May 13 2025 High pressure crosses the region overnight, then moves southeast of the region Tuesday into Wednesday.
Fairly quiet weather-wise the rest of the day as drier air filters in and weak high pressure builds over Central Florida behind the front.