Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
222 AM EDT Tue Sep 16 2025 Low pressure will drift into the Tidewater region of NC and VA today, then linger while weakening, through mid-week. Canadian high pressure will otherwise extend across the eastern US. Model agreement has come into better alignment with the 12z guidance, specifically with the track of the low. The consensus takes the low to the WNW into far eastern or northeastern sections of NC by Tue morning. In addition to that, the low-level flow, specifically at 850mb, shows anomalous moist onshore flow driving intense moisture confluence into the northeast Piedmont and northern Coastal Plain. The heaviest rainfall is likely to fall along an axis of strong frontogenetical forcing to the northwest of the low, in an area closely aligned with the 12z HREF footprint.
1232 AM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025 The forecast area will remain on the western periphery of a closed low pressure system centered over eastern North Carolina heading into today. The remainder of the forecast will see a pattern breakdown as centers of upper-level low pressure over the Northern Rockies and the East Coast weaken. Average temps will still be a little warmer than normal - about 3 to 5 degrees warmer than normal on most days.
400 AM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025 - Patchy fog in the low lying areas of the Wisconsin River Valley and potentially in Sheboygan, Ozaukee, Washington, Waukesha Counties this morning.
(Tonight through next Monday) 00Z upper-air analysis depicts a Rex Block over the Continental United States with a high centered over the Great Lakes Region, an upper-level low over the Southeast United States, and an upper- level trough over the northern Rockies.
- High pressure will continue breaking down through the rest of this week across the Four State Region, allowing for near- normal temperatures by the end of the week. Ridging will continue to break down across the Four State Region through the rest of this work week with chances of rain increasing by the middle of the week as a result. Aloft, this is also due to the beginning of a synoptic pattern shift where troughing takes hold across more of the Great Plains.
132 AM EDT Tue Sep 16 2025 High pressure will continue to bring warming temperatures and dry weather conditions to the region this week.
- Freeze Warnings continue this morning for the lower elevation basins west of the Divide. Morning WV imagery shows the latest H5 trough spinning across the northern Rockies, generally centered on YNP.
Today will be our warmest day of the work week with afternoon highs in the mid to upper 80s and a run at 90 along the Buffalo Ridge under ample sunshine. A 500mb ridge axis extends through the Great Lakes up into Ontario and Quebec, placing Minnesota/western Wisconsin on the western periphery. This ridge will weaken slightly over the next 24 hours and allow a cut off low over Montana/Wyoming to make some eastward progress.
1138 PM MDT Mon Sep 15 2025 - Weak cool front brings gusty showers/storms through tonight - Upper low drops into the northern Plains for the rest of the week with a cooling trend and good chances for precipitation - Generally drier and warmer weather expected for the weekend 19z surface analysis had weak cool front from ND into northern ID. Water vapour loop had an upper low over southwest MT. Tuesday, cool front hangs up over south-central SD as upper low saunters into WY.
105 AM EDT Tue Sep 16 2025 Dry weather and above-normal temperatures dominate the forecast this week under the influence of high pressure.
590 dm upper level high fixated overhead early this morning maintains full control heading into the mid-week period.
341 AM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025 - Widespread thunderstorm development is expected this afternoon and tonight ahead of a cold front.
Today will be our warmest day of the work week with afternoon highs in the mid to upper 80s and a run at 90 along the Buffalo Ridge under ample sunshine. A 500mb ridge axis extends through the Great Lakes up into Ontario and Quebec, placing Minnesota/western Wisconsin on the western periphery. This ridge will weaken slightly over the next 24 hours and allow a cut off low over Montana/Wyoming to make some eastward progress. Things look to remain unsettled through the end of the week with a resurgence of the Great Lakes ridge working to keep the cut off low meandering over the Dakotas.
The morning KKEY sounding sampled a PWAT value slightly over the 50th percentile value for the day, with drier layers in the low atmosphere and above 500 mb.
520 AM EDT Tue Sep 16 2025 High pressure will extend across the region. Low pressure will meander near the North Carolina Outer Banks through the middle of the week. A cold front could approach from the north early in the weekend. The synoptic pattern has changed little over the past 24 hours with a pseudo rex block in place across the eastern CONUS and ~1008 mb non-tropical low pressure located about 100 mi east of Cape Hatteras. This will allow the upper low positioned over the Carolinas to meander north into the Virginia Tidewater tonight. Conditions will remain rain-free across the Lowcountry and Southeast Georgia through tonight. The beaches will remain a tad cooler in the lower 80s.
712 AM EDT Tue Sep 16 2025 High pressure will continue to bring warming temperatures and dry weather conditions to the region this week.
602 AM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025 (Today through Wednesday) A subtle mid-level impulse is forecast to drift southward across our region today as it rotates around an area of low pressure centered over eastern North Carolina. Only weak instability is shown on forecast soundings due to the relatively dry air mass in the low levels; thus, this may pan out in the form of short- lived showers and perhaps a thunderstorm or two. There's not a lot of change on Wednesday as the low pressure center moves slightly northward to coastal Virginia.
618 AM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025 - Moisture aloft rotating around an upper low over the southeastern US, along with daytime heating, will result in isolated to scattered afternoon showers today. - Temperatures should hold steady in the low 90s through the forecast period.
This will thus result in cooler temperatures (mainly in the 70s) near the Lake Michigan lakeshore. While quiet and dry weather will persist in this blocked pattern through the rest of the work week, the upper level ridge begins to break down heading into the weekend as a western trough (and/or potential cut-off low) begins to slide eastward towards the Great Lakes. Otherwise, another tranquil forecast period is expected as high pressure remains in control overhead.
- Freeze Warnings continue this morning for the lower elevation basins west of the Divide. Morning WV imagery shows the latest H5 trough spinning across the northern Rockies, generally centered on YNP. The other is closer to the center of the trough, bringing precip across far NW WY this afternoon. As the trough slowly nudges east Wednesday, this puts the circulation over central WY. After Wednesday, the trough nudges just far enough east to loosen its grip on western Wyoming weather for the remainder of the week. There is around a 1 in 5 chance of patchy fog in vicinity of KJAC through around 16Z this morning but with the chance only around 1 out of 5 we have elected to keep the low cloud group only at this time.
626 AM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025 - Widespread thunderstorm development is expected this afternoon and tonight ahead of a cold front.
- Weak frontal boundary moves in late Wednesday through the end of the week bringing increasing rain chances and slightly cooler temperatures - At least low shower and storm chances linger into the weekend as various disturbances move nearby the local region.
620 AM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025 The forecast area will remain on the western periphery of a closed low pressure system centered over eastern North Carolina heading into today. The remainder of the forecast will see a pattern breakdown as centers of upper-level low pressure over the Northern Rockies and the East Coast weaken. Average temps will still be a little warmer than normal - about 3 to 5 degrees warmer than normal on most days.
(Today and tonight) Early this morning, skies were mostly clear as broad high pressure was in place at the surface. Upper-level ridging has built in across the majority of Texas as the region lies between two upper lows, over the Rockies and over the southeast US. The airmass is about the same as it has been the past few days so high temperatures are expected to be in the low 90s once again.
Discussion: An upper low remains centered near the North & South Carolina border.
A broader trough digging into the region from the northeast Pacific will bring better rain chances into the weekend, especially near the coast and across southwest Washington.
940 AM EDT Tue Sep 16 2025 Dry weather and above-normal temperatures dominate the forecast this week under the influence of high pressure.
(Today and tonight) Isolated showers and thunderstorms have tapered off and a quiet night is expected with mostly clear skies, light southerly winds, and lows generally in the low-to-mid 60s. Today will be very similar to yesterday under a weak mid-level ridge. Dewpoints overall will be a few degrees cooler than yesterday, however will still reach the low 60s.
A vertically stacked low pressure system is centered over south central Canada, over Lake Winnipeg, with upper level ridging across Lake Michigan toward Hudson Bay. A weak cold front pushes into the area tonight, and likely hangs up somewhere as upper level ridging amplifies over the region Wednesday. Over the northern Plains, a messy broad upper trough will become more organized by the end of the week, and push toward the Great Lakes by the weekend. With continued southerly flow on the east side of the trough and weak impulses rotating through the Northland, continued scattered rain chances are expected most days through the weekend.
Pattern remains the same as prior few nights with high pressure in place across the Great Lakes. 590 dm upper level high fixated overhead early this morning maintains full control heading into the mid-week period.
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Multiple low pressure systems in the region are keeping precipitation chances elevated across NE MT, but coverage remains spotty and the forcing is relatively weak. Later this week, the weather pattern will establish something a little more organized with the complex upper low moving into the northern plains.
Some moisture in the lower to mid levels was noted on the 00Z KKEY sounding from last night, and that seemed to be enough to nurture a little bit of shower and thunderstorm activity a few hours ago.
The region will remain planted underneath a weakness in the SW-NE oriented upper level ridge through Wednesday, allowing for very low rain chances both this afternoon and again tomorrow. /Issued 1258 AM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025/ /Wednesday Night Onward/ By mid-late week, an upper level low well to our northwest will begin to slowly meander eastward toward the Continental Divide, breaking down the northern portion of the upper-level ridge. The movement of the closed low and associated trough will place North and Central Texas on the far southern extent of the trough as we go into the weekend.
644 AM EDT Tue Sep 16 2025 High pressure will slide south of the region today and Wednesday.
An upper level ridge is over Texas this morning with weak northwesterly flow. High pressure in the lower levels is producing weak southeasterly winds. The upper ridge will remain dominant in the short term. Light southeasterly winds will reinforce the low level airmass.
- Moist airmass coming off the Gulf will combine with upper low eclipsing the southeast US to bring about the chance for isolated to scattered afternoon showers today and Wednesday. - Temperatures should hold steady in the low 90s through the forecast period.
Mid-level heights will begin to rise tonight and gradually continue as upper ridging moves over the area from the west. Ridging aloft continues to build eastward through the end of the work week, keeping conditions relatively benign.
213 PM EDT Tue Sep 16 2025 High pressure will continue to bring warming temperatures and dry weather conditions to the region this week.
/EC/ The forecast area will remain on the western periphery of a closed low pressure system centered over eastern North Carolina heading into today. The remainder of the forecast will see a pattern breakdown as centers of upper-level low pressure over the Northern Rockies and the East Coast weaken. Average temps will still be a little warmer than normal - about 3 to 5 degrees warmer than normal on most days.
217 PM EDT Tue Sep 16 2025 High pressure will continue to slide south of the region through Wednesday.
117 PM EDT Tue Sep 16 2025 Low pressure will linger near the Outer Banks through Wednesday before high pressure brings drier and slightly warmer weather for the second half of the week.
214 PM EDT Tue Sep 16 2025 High pressure will continue to bring warming temperatures and dry weather conditions to the region this week.
This snowfall may impact travel over the highest elevations of the Beartooth Highway. A 500 mb trough will continue to drop through the region tonight. This low will advect moisture into Eastern Montana bringing precipitation chances (30-60%) for locations south and east of a line from Red Lodge to Baker.
A northerly upper flow will continue through the end of the week as an upper low remains across the eastern CONUS. By the end of the week the upper low will break down and lift northward as weak upper level troughing develops across the eastern states. High temps will remain above normal, in the low 90s.
5 sigma) 500mb ridge remains parked over the Great Lakes between a coastal low in the Mid-Atlantic and a cutoff upper low over Wyoming. Persistence forecast on Wednesday with the ridge maintaining highly stable conditions across the area. Another day of full sun sends highs back into the lower to mid 80s. The ridge then begins to break down Wednesday night as a northern stream waves tracks across Ontario.
This will thus result in cooler temperatures (mainly in the 70s) near the Lake Michigan lakeshore. While quiet and dry weather will persist in this blocked pattern through the rest of the work week, the upper level ridge begins to break down heading into the weekend as a western trough (and/or potential cut-off low) begins to slide eastward towards the Great Lakes.
Key message(s): - A sprinkle is possible as an upper low moves over the region An upper level low slowly lift northeastward away from the forecast area today. The higher rain chances will remain north and west of the FA where slightly deeper moisture may allow the rain to reach the ground. The more extensive cloud cover associated with the upper low is expected to remain north of the forecast area today. Skies should become mostly clear overnight as the low moves further away from the region with rising 500mb heights. Upper low will begin its hike northeastward as the omega block continues to break down. Across the southeastern US, weak flow and weak troughing is actually favored during this period.
128 PM EDT Tue Sep 16 2025 High pressure will extend across the region. Low pressure will meander near the North Carolina Outer Banks through the middle of the week. A cold front could approach from the north early in the weekend. At the surface, Low pressure will shift from the Outer Banks of NC this evening into the eastern Mid-Atlantic region overnight. Meanwhile, High pressure prevail across our region. The High will bring our area dry conditions with some high cirrus clouds. Aloft, low pressure centered across the Mid-Atlantic States on Wednesday will slowly weaken and become an open wave of weak troughing extending north/south along the eastern periphery of the Appalachians into late week with some subtle hints of weak ridging occurring by the weekend.
Hot temperatures and dry conditions will persist as the upper low over the coastal Carolinas brings northerly flow to much of the southeast.
1253 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025 - Widespread thunderstorm development is expected this afternoon and tonight ahead of a cold front.
253 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025 * Well needed rainfall chances increase across the region through the weekend with a slow moving upper level low approaching from the intermountain-west.
The fog/stratus will burn off by Noon as an upper ridge keeps skies clear through the day.
Standard high pressure configuration today promotes ENE winds and limited clouds. 590 dm upper level high fixated overhead early this morning maintains full control heading into the mid-week period.
204 AM EDT Sun May 18 2025 Low pressure lingers over the area Sunday into Monday bringing continued chances for showers.
Stronger gusts, around 40 mph, could also be possible at times over the higher mountain ridges. Temperatures are expected to hover right around normal throughout the near term period, with highs reaching 70s in the lowlands and upper 50s to low 70s in the mountains. A warm front then gradually approaches the region from the southwest on Monday, while a weak upper wave traverses the northern periphery of a low amplitude ridge across the region, bringing increasing cloud cover, and the potential for ISO showers/storms, mainly south/west.
(Today through Monday) Upper ridging continued over the Gulf and extended northwestward into the Great Plains states. An upper trough was centered over Nevada. Low pressure over Colorado had a frontal boundary eastward near Interstate 40. Ridging, surface and aloft, isn't going much of anywhere through Monday. The upper trough to the west will shift eastward to the lee side of the Rockies by Monday afternoon.
108 AM EDT Sun May 18 2025 A crossing cold front into this evening will bring showers and a few thunderstorms, as well as gusty wind today. Relatively cooler temperatures will then settle into the region. A Wind Advisory remains in effect for Eastern Tucker County through 2 AM, where gusts up to 50mph remain possible with mountain wave activity from a passing trough. Probability of 50mph gusts decreases mid-morning over the ridges with building high pressure to our west. Seasonable low temperatures in the lower and mid 50s are forecast. Northwesterly flow from the upper-level ridge moving into the area will keep high temperatures at or below normal. Gusty conditions will continue ease throughout the day tomorrow as dry conditions set in with incoming ridge.
119 AM EDT Sun May 18 2025 - Dry Sun/Mon, then showers, continued cool - Dry Sun/Mon, then showers, continued cool Upper low pressure has brought an abrupt change to our weather. Gone are temperatures in the 80s, replaced by highs in the lower to mid 50s. Cooler temperatures. A strong short wave rotating around the upper low will move east later this afternoon and take the showers with it. Clouds will remain though as the long wave upper trough remains over the Great Lakes. HREF mean cloud cover prog shows the lower clouds continuing through tonight and Sunday morning before beginning to lift out Sunday afternoon.
500 AM EDT Sun May 18 2025 * Cooler today with isolated showers possible in the northern and central mountains.
1143 PM CDT Sat May 17 2025 (This evening through Monday night) A very persistent pattern of deep layer ridging across the northern Gulf coast will continue to bring warmer than average temperatures, higher humidity, and overall a very Summer like feel to the air through Monday night. Overnight lows will only dip into the 70s as dewpoints remain elevated in the low to mid 70s.
144 AM CDT Sun May 18 2025 Late afternoon through Sunday: The gradient between a hot subtropical ridge near the Gulf Coast and a cold upper low is lending to a volatile thermodynamic environment characterized by 3000 to 4000 j/kg MLCAPE along a boundary extending from northeast LA east southeast through central into southeast MS.
An upper level trough with an upper level low and surface cold front will move through the area today. As the upper level low drops down over our area today look for winds to increase starting early this morning. There will be areas, like ridge tops across the southwest and areas near Yale and Idahome, that will push just into HIGH WIND WARNING criteria, over 60 mph. The upper level low will help create a convergence band this afternoon into early Monday morning across the Snake River plain where northerly winds (at surface and aloft) will combine with westerly winds. These freezing temperatures may become widespread enough for a freeze warning for the Arco desert and the Upper Snake river plain but have held off on a freeze warning for now.
230 AM PDT Sun May 18 2025 * Robust, gusty northwest winds Today * Slick roads in higher elevations early this morning * Widespread freezing temperatures tonight. Much cooler today and tonight with widespread sub-freezing temperatures tonight. Today through next Sunday Light rain and snow showers will continue to dissipate and exit to the east as the robust upper trof continues to progress east out of the region as well. Upper perturbation clipping northeast Nevada tonight looks to induce light snow showers over the high terrain of eastern Nevada, primarily over the Jarbidge Wilderness. Cool temperatures today and tonight with daytime highs in the low 50s to low 60s. Widespread frost and sub- freezing temperatures expected tonight with overnight lows residing in the low 20s to low 30s.
626 AM CDT Sun May 18 2025 (Today through Monday) Upper ridging continued over the Gulf and extended northwestward into the Great Plains states. An upper trough was centered over Nevada. Low pressure over Colorado had a frontal boundary eastward near Interstate 40. Ridging, surface and aloft, isn't going much of anywhere through Monday. The upper trough to the west will shift eastward to the lee side of the Rockies by Monday afternoon.
At the upper-levels, a trough was located over the Four Corners region and moving eastward. As this feature swings eastward, the trough axis will become negatively tilted by this afternoon and be The dryline will mix eastward today and should be a bit further west than yesterday, where it will once again be a focus for convection.
As deep layer ridging is expected to remain in place over the next few days, our weather pattern is going to continue to be similar to what we've been experiencing this weekend. From synopsis, a dry pattern defined by a distant high pressure system in the central North Atlantic and lack of other major synoptic influences will lead to breezes shifting from light to moderate over the next few days.
607 AM CDT Sun May 18 2025 (Today through Monday) The subtropical ridge continues summer-like conditions across Deep South Texas into the new week, with low pressure in the Plains enhancing the pressure gradient locally.
711 AM CDT Sun May 18 2025 Zonal flow will persist through the next 48 hours as we remain on the northern periphery of an upper level high. This setup will help keep mostly dry conditions across the area Sunday and Monday as subsidence from the upper ridge will likely squash most storms.
(Today and tonight) Large scale subsidence on the back side of the trough, now located over the Great Basin, is leading to mostly clear skies and the subtle redevelopment of a stable marine layer thanks to compressional heating aloft.
High pressure will build into the area midweek, bringing much warmer temperatures and a return to summer. A strong cold front will continue to progress through the state this morning into early this afternoon. Moderate to heavy precipitation will continue near and behind this cold front before shifting to a more showery mode this afternoon. While previous model runs over the last few days had suggested a second upper level low would shift southward into central and southern Utah later Sunday into Monday, the majority of the ensemble members have shifted toward a more phased solution with the longwave trough.