Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1253 PM EDT Wed Jul 30 2025 - Cooler to near normal temperatures and dry weather is expected Wednesday through the rest of the week. High pressure sprawled out over the Canadian Prairies is extending ridging into the northern tier of the US. This feature moves into the Lower Midwest Thursday, with associated cloud cover drifting away - but smoke from upstream wildfires will continue to lead to hazy, filtered sunshine today through Thursday. Expect highs ranging in the lower to mid 70s - though locations closer to Lake Superior may struggle to get out of the 60s with northerly flow. Temperatures tonight fall back into the mid/upper 40s inland and the lower 50s near the shorelines of the Great Lakes.
- A cold front will sweep through the region tonight into Thursday, bringing with it a chance (30-40%) of showers and thunderstorms.
Expect overnight lows in the mid to upper 70s with daytime highs in the low to mid 90s.
(This afternoon through Thursday) A subtle low-level trough is drifting east to west across the area today. There hasn't been a significant change in the height fields, and the large-scale pattern is still dominated by ridging centered over Texas and over the western Atlantic. Broad, longwave troughing will begin to deepen over the Ohio Valley by tomorrow. A surface cold front will move towards the Tennessee Valley during the day.
However, this time thunderstorms will continue through the night in eastern Oregon as a potent short wave trough approaches from northern California.
High pressure will gradually nudge its way into southern Arizona over the coming days. At the same time troughing will persist along the west coast of the United States.
From synopsis, the weakened western flank of an Atlantic ridge will remain across South Florida and the Keys. The ridge will strengthen modestly as it lifts towards Central Florida.
201 PM EDT Wed Jul 30 2025 Thunderstorm chances increase tonight and Thursday as a cold front moves through the area. High pressure of Canadian origin will bring drier and cooler conditions for the end of the week into the weekend. This will tend to flatten the persistent mid- level ridge across the southern United States.
746 PM EDT Wed Jul 30 2025 A cold front will cross the area today into this evening.
739 PM EDT Wed Jul 30 2025 Thunderstorm chances increase tonight and Thursday as a cold front moves through the area. High pressure of Canadian origin will bring drier and cooler conditions for the end of the week into the weekend. This will tend to flatten the persistent mid- level ridge across the southern United States.
Storm activity is being aided synoptically by a 500mb vortmax just to our southwest while Central Alabama is wedged in-between the 500mb ridge over the southern plains and the ridge in the western Atlantic. We'll begin to see a pattern shift over the eastern CONUS by Thursday afternoon through Thursday night as a broad longwave trough deepens over the Great Lakes and Northeast.
Cumulus cloud field and smoke movement indicate center of high pressure resides in southwest MB. Guidance continues to suggest the high will slowly build southeast into northern ND and MN tonight into tomorrow.
534 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025 - Scattered thunderstorms most likely along cold frontal zone across the Texas Panhandle into south central Kansas, but much of the southwest Kansas region likely to remain dry tonight.
The highest temperatures will be over the weekend with highs near 100 in the warmest valleys and deserts.
538 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025 Updated at 538 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025 - A low (10-30%) chance of thunderstorms are possible most afternoons, mainly over the higher elevations of the Davis, Guadalupe, and Sacramento Mountains and immediately adjacent plains.
722 PM EDT Wed Jul 30 2025 - Cooler to near normal temperatures and dry weather is expected Wednesday through the rest of the week. Thus, avoid strenuous activity the next couple of days as the high pressure building into the region will arrive over the western Great Lakes Thursday, continuing to pump smoke from the Canadian wildfires over us as it does so. Outside of the air quality/surface smoke concerns, the forecast remains quiet, with the high pressure building in suppressing convection across the region as cold air advection gradually continues across the U.
818 PM EDT Wed Jul 30 2025 Atlantic high pressure prevails offshore through the rest of the work week, a trough of low pressure will continue to press inland. A cold front may stall nearby this weekend and promote heavy to excessive rainfall across the region. At the surface, a reasonably strong cold front for early August will start to push into the region at the leading edge of this aforementioned upper-lvl trough.
731 PM EDT Wed Jul 30 2025 A cold front will slowly push from north to south across the region through early Thursday bringing some showers and a few thunderstorms. With mostly cloudy skies throughout the day and cooler weather behind the front, Thursday's highs will be 10-15 degF less than Wednesday remaining mostly in the low-70s Cooler and drier weather expected for late this week as 850mb temps drop into the single digits (degC) across the area, around the climatological 10th percentile for early August.
647 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025 The synoptic scale pattern this afternoon features a strong ridge of high pressure in the mid and upper levels located across the Southern Plains and extending into the Midwest and TN Valley. Closer to the surface, high pressure can be found along the TX Coast, with weak low pressure centered over the MS/AL vicinity, with weak troughing located in its vicinity. Temperatures in the low to mid 90s with dewpoints in the mid to upper 70s are largely responsible for this unstable environment and generally expect thunderstorm coverage to increase through the afternoon fairly quickly.
943 PM EDT Wed Jul 30 2025 A cold front will cross the area overnight.
Meanwhile, the western flank of an Atlantic Ridge remains situated across the region. The weakened western flank of an Atlantic ridge will remain across South Florida and the Keys. The ridge will strengthen modestly as it lifts towards Central Florida.
900 PM EDT Wed Jul 30 2025 Thunderstorm chances increase tonight and Thursday as a cold front moves through the area. High pressure of Canadian origin will bring drier and cooler conditions for the end of the week into the weekend. This will tend to flatten the persistent mid- level ridge across the southern United States.
High pressure is located over the northern Red River valley at 08z and will drift southeast today.
1246 AM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025 High pressure in the upper layers will maintain dry, hot conditions through the forecast. Despite near-normal temperatures for this time of year, return of moisture with an inverted trough in the mid- layers will allow for a sudden jump to uncomfortable conditions. The highest apparent temperatures are expected along US-83 into Hidalgo and Starr counties, and along and east of I-69C, particularly inland Kenedy and inland Willacy counties.
- High pressure will keep dry conditions and seasonal temperatures in place through the end of the week. High pressure was centered over the southern Canadian Prairies and stretched southward into the Central Plains and southeastward into the western Great Lakes. The area of high pressure will slowly drift across the region for tomorrow and Friday, keeping mainly sunny and dry conditions in place.
- Below average temperatures are expected through the rest of the week and weekend, with highs mainly in the lower 70s to lower 80s and lows in the lower 50s to lower 60s. Western and central North Dakota currently sits under the influence of northwest flow aloft with ridging located over Montana. Precipitation chances (20 to 50 percent) will start to move into central North Dakota (best chances south) tonight as the ridge to our west nudges closer and deamplifies.
- Cooler and less humid weather Friday into this weekend. As a result, the faster clearing may allow NW areas to end up warmer for highs today than SE spots under the cloud cover. Over the next days a long overdue transition to cool and much less humid conditions will occur as high pressure builds from the north. Overnight lows tonight will bottom out in the low to mid 50s, with temperatures this "cold" not having been felt since the first half of June.
422 AM EDT Thu Jul 31 2025 Cloudy weather with much cooler conditions are expected today into Friday, with the potential for a flooding rainfall across portions of southern New England.
(Today through Friday) 500mb troughing in the vicinity of the Great Lakes will cause a weakness in mid-level ridging across the Gulf region.
Cooler temperatures arrive Friday and into the weekend. The upper ridge is losing its grip and a trough will move into the Midwest/Ohio River Valley this afternoon. Locally, we'll still see highs in the lower to mid 90s for the majority of the area and dew points in the 70s. The real relief arrives on Friday as a cold front will bring some cooler and relatively drier air. There will be scattered showers and storms on Friday ahead of the front which models are favoring the south and the plateau for the highest chances.
Cooler temperatures expected by the end of the week and into the weekend, but precip chances remain in the forecast. Discussion: "Slightly" cooler high temps are anticipated today as high pressure pushes further west, allowing upper heights to slightly fall. This is due to a convergence axis in place due to high pressure across Texas and another across Florida. North of I-40, chances for showers and storms still exists due to the approaching cold front but the coverage should be less.
436 AM EDT Thu Jul 31 2025 * Cold front will bring scattered showers/storms this afternoon and tonight, with a transition from heat and humidity to cooler and less humid weather.
256 AM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025 - Aside from a 20-40% chance of showers today, dry and much cooler conditions are forecast through this weekend. A cold front is currently pushing through southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois. Highs will only range from about 75 to 85 degrees from north to south, which for most places will be akin to the lows they've been experiencing for the past two weeks. Low-lying and sheltered areas will likely be even cooler. Yet here I type that a climatological max strength, cool season-esque high pressure system will make this reality. This dominant high pressure system will keep the forecast consistently cool and dry through this weekend.
Afternoon temperatures will reach the low to mid 70s under low humidity, providing a more comfortable summer day then the previous hot and humid days.
- Cooler through Thursday, warmer this weekend. The ridge axis is aligned along the Rockies with a deepening western CONUS trof. broad high pressure has set up across the region, with easterly sfc winds located across the eastern part of the CWA with southerly winds across the WY counties. Surface dewpoints still remain in the low 60s. Some light SHRA have developed across our southern counties as convective temps are in the low to mid 70s with dwpts in the lower 60s. Given that the 500hpa wave still needs to round the ridge axis, am generally leaning toward the slower solutions. 850Hpa RH values still remain on the high side so expect partly to mostly cloudy skies for the most part. 500hpa ridge axis passes through the region during the day Friday.
Not much change to the forecast with a low 10-15% chance of rain today and tonight as an inverted trough moves across the region from east to west.
Cooler-than-normal temperatures turn warmer into the weekend. Thus, avoid strenuous activity the next couple of days as the high pressure building into the region continues to pump smoke from the Canadian wildfires over us. Outside of the air quality/surface smoke concerns, the forecast remains quiet, with the high pressure building in suppressing convection across the region. Temperatures stay on the cooler side today, peaking in the lower 70s inland and the mid/upper 60s near Lake Superior.
Filthy upper level ridge remains quasi-stationary across our region over the next several days, with numerous embedded waves moving through, each bringing daily and/or nightly chances for showers and thunderstorms. Temperatures will remain mainly seasonal early in the period, then will gradually trend warmer as we go into the second week of August.
08z/3am surface analysis shows a cold front settling southward toward the Ohio River while a 1030mb high builds southward into the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes. The 06z HRRR near-surface smoke density plot confirms this, showing the highest concentrations of smoke impacting locations mainly north of the I-70 corridor.
Tonight For late this afternoon and tonight, high pressure will start to build south across the region.
Cumulus cloud field and smoke movement indicate center of high pressure resides in southwest MB. Guidance continues to suggest the high will slowly build southeast into northern ND and MN tonight into tomorrow. Weak ridging builds into the area from west to east on Friday; however, temperatures will likely remain near average due to a combination of weak surface flow as well as short residence time.
1145 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025 Updated at 1144 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025 - A low (10-30%) chance of thunderstorms are possible most afternoons, mainly over the higher elevations of the Davis, Guadalupe, and Sacramento Mountains and immediately adjacent plains.
(Today through Friday) Upper level ridging remains in place across Florida today. Overnight and early morning scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will give way to sea-breeze driven storms during the afternoon and early evening each day, with the highest PoPs favoring inland areas and SW FL.
High pressure builds across the region with an ideal set up for radiational cooling Friday night.
311 AM EDT Thu Jul 31 2025 A cold front provides much cooler conditions today and for the weekend. Isolated/scattered afternoon/evening storms are possible until the cold front passes tonight. Today a cold front will pass through the area promoting cloudy skies and shower/storm activity across the entire area as well as cooler air filtering in. Fairly confident that heat indexes will not reach 100, although some localized spots may in fact hit that threshold but the overall average will be below 100 degrees and more likely in the low to mid 90s across the board.
226 AM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025 - A cold front will bring an end to the heat wave today, along with a chance (25-40%) of thunderstorms through the daytime hours. - Much cooler and less humid conditions are forecast Friday through the weekend.
- Very high confidence on less humid and cooler conditions late this week and over the weekend. Current Conditions and Synoptic Pattern: Water vapor and upper air analysis continues to show the upper level ridge beginning to shift south into the southern plains. The higher PW values were also beginning to shift east of the area, but 1. The highest pops will be centered east of the Mississippi River through tonight per latest HREF guidance. Friday through the weekend: Ensembles continue to be in strong agreement that a pattern change will occur with the upper level high getting shunted farther southwest, with northwest flow aloft developing over our area. This will allow for a much cooler and drier air mass to continue to move into the area Friday into the weekend.
145 AM EDT Thu Jul 31 2025 - Showers and Storms possible tonight into tomorrow morning - Smoke and Haze into Friday - Cooler and less humid through the weekend - Showers and Storms possible tonight into tomorrow morning A short wave trough coupled with a cold front will move through the area tonight into tomorrow. While that will bring some instability, temperatures remain in the low to mid 80s and given the showers out ahead, will decrease convective development. - Cooler and less humid through the weekend As the frontal boundary moves to the east, cooler and drier air will filter in behind the front which will bring an end to this weeks heat.
1220 AM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025 - Scattered thunderstorms most likely along cold frontal zone across the Texas Panhandle into south central Kansas, but much of the southwest Kansas region likely to remain dry tonight. - Cooler temperatures behind the front providing multiple days of relief from the heat with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s through Friday.
High pressure in the upper layers will maintain dry, hot conditions through the forecast. Despite near-normal temperatures for this time of year, return of moisture with an inverted trough in the mid- layers will allow for a sudden jump to uncomfortable conditions. The highest apparent temperatures are expected along US-83 into Hidalgo and Starr counties, and along and east of I-69C, particularly inland Kenedy and inland Willacy counties.
405 AM EDT Thu Jul 31 2025 * Cold front will bring scattered showers/storms this afternoon and tonight, with a transition from heat and humidity to cooler and less humid weather.
Organized storms expect this afternoon with a passing cold front, damaging winds and heavy rain is the main threat. KEY MESSAGES: - Isolated shower activity near I-80 this morning - Patchy fog possible - Organized storms expected to develop early afternoon, ahead of a cold front --------------------------------------------------------------- A passing disturbance that brought heavy rain and damaging winds near the shores of Lake Erie is quickly weakening as it slowly tracks into northwestern Pennsylvania. A cold front will begin its approach our region this afternoon. If showers redevelop during the day on Friday, it will likely be along the ridges of West Virginia with some weak low-level convergence. Below average temperatures are expected Friday and Friday night in the wake of a cold front.
Temperatures today should be in the low to mid 70s. With dewpoints in the low 50s, it will feel much, much more comfortable compared to the last week or so. Low dewpoints, relatively light winds, and mostly clear skies will favor a quick fall into the 60s this evening, with overnight lows in the low 50s. High pressure will continue to build south on Friday, with another cloudless, but somewhat smokey sky expected. Highs will be just a touch warmer, with readings in the mid to upper 70s.
- The advertised pattern change will bring cooler and less humid conditions through the weekend.
157 AM EDT Thu Jul 31 2025 Occasional showers and a chance of thunderstorms will continue today as a cold front moves south through the region. Behind the front, high pressure and a drier, cooler airmass will settle into the Ohio Valley through the rest of the week. With some cooler air filtering into the area behind the front, we will end up with a pretty good temperature gradient across our area today. High will range from the low 70s northwest to the upper 80s southeast.
Cloudy conditions have been slow to clear today keeping temperatures generally along the I85 corridor several degrees cooler than previously forecast.
An upper trough moving up from the south will bring another round of showers and thunderstorms on Thursday, including the Treasure Valley. However, unlike previous nights coverage (20-40%) should continue in Harney and Malheur Counties even after midnight as a potent short trough approaches from northern California. A 30-50% chance of showers and storms will continue in eastern Oregon Thursday as the trough moves in, with similar chances over higher terrain in western Idaho Thursday afternoon. Maximum development is expected Thursday evening in the northern half of the CWA just ahead of the northward moving trough axis. Hi-res models also show a few thunderstorms (10-20% chance) persisting overnight in southern areas even after the main trough has passed north. Friday should have fewer afternoon thunderstorms than Thursday as another weaker short wave trough comes in across Oregon.
- Cooler temperatures will occur into this weekend. Ahead of the trough scattered thunderstorms have developed across the area early this morning across extreme southeastern Kansas/far southwestern Missouri and across portions of south central Missouri. As the trough continues to move east today a cold front will push south across the area and scattered thunderstorms should develop again on the front late this morning into this afternoon. A cooler air mass will advect into the region today from north to south. Warmer conditions will occur near the Missouri Arkansas boarder where highs in the middle to upper 80s are forecast. The upper level ridge will continue to push back to the west on Friday with cool and dry conditions expected to occur Friday into the weekend.
(Today) While the weakening of the upper level ridge as it progresses westward has been realized, there is one more day of heat we have to endure before relatively cooler temperatures can be experienced.
Updated at 1226 AM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025 - A passing front will lead to a sharp gradient in high temperatures this afternoon, cooler across the SW TX Panhandle and warmer across the SE Rolling Plains.
Persisting Smoke High pressure builds southward into the Upper Mississippi River Valley today as 500hPa ridging currently over the western United States shifts eastward. The high pressure is currently expected to shift eastward this weekend which should help alleviate surface impacts of the smoke. Outside of this mornings showers/sprinkles, dry conditions are expected through at least the weekend under the aforementioned high pressure.
- A cold front will bring significant relief from the heat and humidity starting late tonight into Friday. The long-awaited cold front is on track to cross eastern Kentucky in spurts from the north beginning this evening, with further pushes arriving during the day Friday. Instability wanes significantly Friday afternoon ahead of the final cold frontal surge south, but weak to to possibly moderate instability will still allow for scattered showers and thunderstorms in the morning and early afternoon, especially south of the Mountain Parkway. The big story will be the significant cooldown with the arrival of a much cooler air mass than what we have seen this summer thus far, with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s this afternoon dropping to the mid 70s to lower 80s Friday.
129 AM EDT Thu Jul 31 2025 A cold front provides much cooler conditions today and for the weekend. Isolated/scattered afternoon/evening storms are possible until the cold front passes tonight. Today a cold front will pass through the area promoting cloudy skies and shower/storm activity across the entire area as well as cooler air filtering in. Fairly confident that heat indexes will not reach 100, although some localized spots may in fact hit that threshold but the overall average will be below 100 degrees and more likely in the low to mid 90s across the board.
- Much cooler, below seasonal temperatures expected tomorrow into the weekend. The HRRR develops storms along a H925 cold front just south of I-70. If storms develop in our area, the low-level jet could support support storm formation into the morning hours on Thursday. For Thursday, expect much cooler temperatures on the backside of the cold front. Friday into the weekend, mid to upper level ridging slowly approaching the central U.
Issued 941 AM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025 The wildfire smoke streamed into southern WI from central Canada in the wake of a cold front and it continues to obscure the visibility to 3 miles or less across much of Wisconsin and Minnesota. Temperatures today should be in the low to mid 70s. With dewpoints in the low 50s, it will feel much, much more comfortable compared to the last week or so. Low dewpoints, relatively light winds, and mostly clear skies will favor a quick fall into the 60s this evening, with overnight lows in the low 50s. High pressure will continue to build south on Friday, with another cloudless, but somewhat smokey sky expected. Highs will be just a touch warmer, with readings in the mid to upper 70s.