Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Upper level ridging over the Deep South begins to shift southward as troughing expands southward through the Plains. For your Fourth of July celebrations, expect highs in the low to mid 90s with dewpoints in the low to mid 70s this afternoon. As the trough moves across the Great Lakes tonight and tomorrow, a front will approach the area from the northwest Friday morning.
The area looks to dry out over the weekend as high pressure builds across the Ohio Valley. An active belt of west-southwest winds continue across the Ohio Valley around the periphery of a mid level ridge positioned to our south. An axis of showers and thunderstorms associated with a trof axis has shifted south and weakened. Mild lows are expected generally in the lower 70s. Associated surface cold front to sweep thru the area during the afternoon. A cold front will be progressing east of the Ohio Valley on Friday night.
Strong ridging out toward the southwestern United States remains in place along with strong troughing over the Hudson Bay. Weak instability and lift on the back edge of the trough over the Hudson Bay helped spark isolated showers and storms over the far northern Red River Valley this morning. Rain will affect a majority of eastern ND and northwestern MN, but the highest chances will be towards the Devils Lake Basin, back down to the Sheyenne River Valley and for areas along and south of I-94. Areas along and north of Highway 2 in MN will have the lowest chance (20%) for precipitation this afternoon and evening.
A cold front will increase diurnal shower and thunderstorm chances across the entire forecast area Friday into the weekend.
-A cold front could (30-50% chc) then bring scattered storms to eastern KS into this afternoon before the front moves southeast of the area this evening. For the rest of our holiday, a cold front will begin to move through the forecast area late this morning and into the afternoon ahead of a mid-level wave over the Upper Midwest. Highs will warm into the low and mid 80s and northwest winds will be breezy at 10-20 mph.
(Today through Friday Night) High pressure continues to reign over SE Texas through the next couple of days; however, an approaching cold front from the Dallas- Fort Worth area may produce isolated showers for northern counties.
232 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024 - Slightly below normal temperatures settle in today, with highs in the low to mid 80s for the next several days.
High pressure is strengthening over the US west coast. The moisture stays on the east side of the Continental Divide with the anchor upper level low in the northern Great Plains.
A larger system pushes in from the south and west into Thursday, spurred by a stout trough aloft. With daytime heating, CAMS suggest a blossoming of scattered showers across the region in the afternoon, with the primary area of moderate more widespread rain pushing west to east along a warm front.
Thanks to the presence of the mid-level ridge, rain chances are expected to be very low as the middle and upper levels of the atmosphere are expected to be dry.
Friday is looking a little warmer than today with better CAPE across the area. Low level shear is on the lower side with 0-1 km shear around 15. This could lead to more turning in the low levels and potentially a bigger risk for severe storms if an MCV develops and actually moves into our region. Friday night our region looks to be firmly in a warm sector ahead of an approaching cold front. The high PW values may yield a locally heavy rain threat too with small stream and poor drainage flooding in a few spots.
Temperatures will be similar to yesterday, wit highs only climbing into the low to mid 70s.
An upper level ridge centered across the Southeast U. An upper level trough is forecast to swing across the Central and Northern Plains today, sending a cold front into the northern Big Country this evening. Additional showers and thunderstorms are possible across the Trans-Pecos region and Southeast New Mexico this evening, along the western periphery of the ridge. Isolated to scattered showers are also possible after midnight, mainly across the Big Country, as the aforementioned cold front slowly moves south.
138 AM EDT Thu Jul 4 2024 High pressure will move off the East Coast, allowing warmer and more humid air to return to the Carolinas later this week. Thunderstorm chances will increase this weekend as a cold front stalls inland from the coast. High pressure continues to provide seasonable temperatures and drier weather. High pressure will gradually shift southward tonight and into the July 4th. Direct onshore flow should allow for warmer and more humid conditions on Thursday. Highs on Thursday will soar into the low and mid 90s across the area. Lingering mid-upper high pressure ridge from the southwest through end of the work week, while southerly low level flow strengthens around building Bermuda high. The mid-upper ridge gets squeezed out over the weekend between an upper low offshore and a longwave trough to the northwest.
1220 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024 (Tonight through Thursday night) Key Messages: - Moderate to Major risk of heat-related impacts mid-week - Medium chance for a Heat Advisory tomorrow A mid to upper level ridge will continue to sit across the Southern Plains and Southeast CONUS resulting in increased subsidence and promoting easterly flow a loft.
354 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024 (Today through Friday Night) High pressure continues to reign over SE Texas through the next couple of days; however, an approaching cold front from the Dallas- Fort Worth area may produce isolated showers for northern counties.
1245 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024 (This evening through Friday) The ridge of high pressure across the area is being flattened by a trof moving thru the midsection of the country. The ridge will hold thru tomorrow, but will eventually give way to lower heights on Friday, when a mean trof takes hold of the area. Everything will change on Friday as the trof takes hold, and a cold front will begin moving into the state.
Another round of convection is expected to develop later this afternoon/evening with the passage of an upper level trough to our north.
Dangerous heat/humidity is again expected this afternoon, ahead of cold front, with heat indices climbing into the 105-112 deg range. Cold front is forecast to move into portions of northeast Oklahoma by mid afternoon, most likely located over Pawnee/Osage and Washington counties.
A high pressure axis will hold north of Florida through Friday, leading to light daytime SE breezes up to 10 KT (locally enhanced at the coast during the afternoon). The high pressure axis will settle southward through the local Atlantic this weekend, with light (5-12 KT) S/SE winds by day turning offshore at night.
With dew points forecasted to remain in the low to mid 70s, the muggy daytime conditions will prevail into the night. Cloud cover will increase slightly from the north during the early morning hours as a weak cold front moves through the Ohio Valley. (Thursday through Friday night) Thursday will be similar to today, with highs back in the lower to middle 90s (warmest in southern TN and northwest AL). However, ongoing convection along a cold front will drop southeast through the area during the day Friday.
While temperatures are once again going to be hot this afternoon as widespread upper 90s and low 100s continue, it will be a touch cooler than yesterday. Afternoon and evening thunderstorms are again on tap for portions of the area as a weak disturbance slides on by to our north within the weakness in the ridge. Late this evening and tonight a cold front enters the picture, beginning the cooler pattern for the area. This cold front sags south with the aid of a trough across the Upper Mississippi River Valley and the weakness between the Southeast and Southwest ridges. Afternoon and evening thunderstorms are once again possible, mainly near the cold front across the southern Permian Basin and across the Davis to Glass Mountain regions.
1150 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024 00Z upper air analysis continues to depict an upper-level ridge located over the Lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast United States. 850 mb analysis shows a plume of low level moisture across the Lower Mississippi Valley, and extending as far north as central Illinois.
138 AM EDT Thu Jul 4 2024 (Through Thursday) Upper level ridge remains entrenched across the deep south and with it weak mid-level flow out of the north and northeast. With the ridge still in place, we'll see a slower start to storms again on Thursday like we saw today, but the main uncertainty forecast wise will be how warm we get before storms fire off. For tomorrow, guidance is running a degree or two warmer but a similar trend in convection is expected so whether we hit heat advisory criteria tomorrow is a little more difficult to ascertain but probabilities for reaching heat advisory levels do appear higher.
Dewpoints should be in the lower 60s during the day, resulting in apparent temperature/heat index readings in the mid 80s, which is near or slightly below expected highs in the upper 80s for areas away from the lake. However, if we can get some instability to build (which won't be difficult given the high dewpoints), ample moisture and the strong kinematics mean some gusty winds from water loaded downdrafts cannot be ruled out. Regardless of any severe weather potential, showers with embedded thunderstorms are likely as the front moves through so will keep the high PoPs in place for Friday.
(Today and tonight) Upper ridge remains situated over the southeast through the fourth of July with a moist and unstable airmass at the surface. High temperatures are expected to reach the low to mid 90s this afternoon with lows in the upper 70s this evening.
332 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024 - Breezy and less humid weather will arrive today in the wake of a cold front.
In regards to heat concerns, the southern trend with the frontal position would keep air temperatures cooler and in the low to mid 90s.
They indicate that an upper level trough, located over the Central Rockies earlier today, will move across the West Central High Plains tonight.
Starting with the heat, heat indices are expected to once again reach 105 to 110 degrees this afternoon across all but northwest Oklahoma ahead of a cold front. The aforementioned cold front will be the focus for afternoon thunderstorm development, as early as 2 pm but most likely between 4 to 11 pm. Models suggest that additional storms could develop later tonight, mainly after midnight, across central and southern Oklahoma as the low-level jet and warm advection increases to the north of the surface boundary.
The area looks to dry out over the weekend as high pressure builds across the Ohio Valley. A pseudo-warm front wing is also developing thunderstorms into portions of northern Kentucky and soon, southeast Indiana. Mild lows are expected generally in the lower 70s. Associated surface cold front to sweep thru the area during the afternoon. A cold front will be progressing east of the Ohio Valley on Friday night.
Dry northwest flow aloft will set in just behind the departure of the previous upper trough, allowing some gusty winds to mix down towards the surface over parts of the higher terrain.
Deep layer ridging persists over the southeastern United States for the holiday. The deep layer ridge will continue to inhibit showers while keeping skies mostly cloud-free, except for periodic cirrus outflow from the hurricane. While the environment is suppressed, the high dew points and precipitable water mean even shallow showers could result in moderate rainfall. These breezes will slacken tomorrow as Beryl moves farther away, and high pressure will lead to gentle east to southeasterly breezes veering to the southeast and south through the end of the week and into the weekend.
638 AM EDT Thu Jul 4 2024 A weak cold front will drop to near the New York and Pennsylvania State line today, with morning showers fading south and southeast of Lake Ontario this morning, though an afternoon spot shower may form near the state line.
As increasing depth of the low level moisture continues amid consistent southerly flow and 500 mb heights falling from around 594-996 dam to the 592-594 dam range, we should see a bit more shower and storm coverage with the best chances across southern Mississippi where some afternoon seabreeze influence could offer additional lift.
The trough over the northern High Plains will continue digging southeast this morning, reaching MN this afternoon as a seasonally potent wave. However, across southern MN there may be better heating near and south of the low track. trough will keep precip chances going for much of the remainder of the period. Temperatures will remain below normal until if/when the western Ridge builds east.
536 AM MDT Thu Jul 4 2024 - It will be much cooler across much of the area today in the post frontal air mass.
The offshore ridge will continue to deepen today bringing even warmer temperatures to us by the weekend.
A ridge of high pressure continues building offshore of the region shown from the water vapor imagery. Given the incoming heat wave and low relative humidity, this will facilitate Moderate to Major HeatRisk across the lower elevations and elevated concerns for fire weather potential due to critically dry environment.
Another quiet morning is on deck for the Keys courtesy of the high pressure encompassing the region.
A strengthening upper level low off the coast of British Columbia begins a southwesterly transit, elongating and shifting the resilient ridge's axis towards the west, exaggerating the tilt and negative vorticity associated with the high pressure as the weekend approaches. Confluence downstream of the synoptic anticyclonic feature further enhances the ridge in what will be a larger mass of sinking air which will warm as it descends onto our area, with above normal temperatures when compared to the climatology for this time of year.
(Today and tonight) High temperatures today will be fairly similar to what was observed yesterday as our overall pattern won't change much ahead of the approaching cold front. Based on the timing of the front most of the area should still warm into the upper 90s to lower 100s, while the far southwestern Texas Panhandle may only warm into the lower to mid 90s. Behind the front temperatures will be cooler with overnight lows dropping into the 60s on the Caprock with lower 70s across the Rolling Plains.
602 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024 - Slightly below normal temperatures settle in today, with highs in the low to mid 80s for the next several days.
Meanwhile, Bermuda High ridging across the Peninsula should keep light and variable winds in place during the short term. High pressure persists across the Gulf waters keeping light wind flow through the rest of the week and into the weekend.
542 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024 - Breezy and less humid weather will arrive today in the wake of a cold front.
649 AM EDT Thu Jul 4 2024 (Today and tonight) Upper ridge remains situated over the southeast through the fourth of July with a moist and unstable airmass at the surface. High temperatures are expected to reach the low to mid 90s this afternoon with lows in the upper 70s this evening.
413 AM MDT Thu Jul 4 2024 - It will be much cooler across much of the area today in the post frontal air mass.
High pressure ridging across northern Florida and into the eastern Gulf of Mexico is producing a light wind flow with winds 10 knots or less and seas 2 feet or less through the rest of the week and into the weekend.
644 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024 (Today and tonight) High temperatures today will be fairly similar to what was observed yesterday as our overall pattern won't change much ahead of the approaching cold front. Based on the timing of the front most of the area should still warm into the upper 90s to lower 100s, while the far southwestern Texas Panhandle may only warm into the lower to mid 90s. Behind the front temperatures will be cooler with overnight lows dropping into the 60s on the Caprock with lower 70s across the Rolling Plains.
With the upper level ridge still remaining over the Southeast, expect a similar day to yesterday with hot and humid conditions and low chances for afternoon thunderstorms. The Heat Advisory continues with afternoon highs forecast to be in the mid to upper 90s with max heat index values between 100F-109F, with the highest values further to the west.
616 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024 (Today through Friday) The subtropical ridge is centered over MS this morning and extends to the west over TX. The upper ridge will continue to dominate keeping the forecast rain free. The low level flow will remain from the southeast keeping warm, moist air in place. Dewpoint temperatures will mix out into the lower 60s to lower 70s.
Building high pressure over the Great Basin produces a stretch of dry weather and a prolonged warming trend. Today through Friday Night Region of strong high pressure resides along the California coast this morning with northwesterly flow situated over the forecast area. High pressure lazily meanders east into the western U.
155 PM MDT Thu Jul 4 2024 Cyclonic flow over the region, along with moisture wrapping around an upper low over the Dakotas back into the area was bringing isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms to the area this afternoon.
1214 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024 - Breezy and less humid weather will arrive today in the wake of a cold front.
1149 AM MDT Thu Jul 4 2024 - It will be much cooler across much of the area today in the post frontal air mass.
Late this evening and overnight, deep/closed H5 low is progged to dig across the Upper Midwest while attendant surface cold front sweeps across central Illinois overnight into early Friday morning. Behind the departing cold front, slightly drier (low to mid 60) dew points will begin to advect across central Illinois along with slightly cooler temps.
1220 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024 - Slightly below normal temperatures settle in today, with highs in the low to mid 80s for the next several days.
As of the 15-16Z hour, temperatures have climbed into the lower 90s already.
High pressure will build in from the west over the weekend continuing to bring dry weather and cooler temperatures. The upper level ridge across the Gulf Coast moves east with a deepening trough across the plains. Hurricane Beryl may begin to move west of the ridge and turn northward moving into portions of Texas.
254 PM MDT Thu Jul 4 2024 - It will be much cooler across much of the area this afternoon and on Friday. A quiet weather day for most of the region behind a cold front that swept through the region last night, remains across the area.
1112 AM EDT Thu Jul 4 2024 A weak cold front will drop to near the New York and Pennsylvania State line this afternoon.
The other parameters of interest are shear and mid-level lapse rates, which both appear to stay on the lower side today, meaning severe thunderstorm potential will be limited.
The focus really shifts to Friday afternoon and evening as a deeper trough moves in from the west.
There should be a break in the thunderstorm activity overnight, but more thunderstorms are expected Friday ahead of an advancing cold front. Cold front moves northward as a warm front, allowing for above normal temperatures to move back in with southwesterly/southerly flow taking precedence. Temperatures will be in the upper 80s to around 90 for the lowlands with mid 70s to the upper 80s being reached in the mountains. There is currently a marginal risk for severe weather and excessive rainfall across the area Friday with a cold front.
Weak high pressure ridges through the center of the state to another high pressure center over the northeast Gulf of Mexico. Daytime highs will top out in the low to mid 90's with heat indices reaching 105-112 degrees. High pressure ridging across central Florida and into the eastern Gulf of Mexico is producing a light wind flow with winds 10 knots or less and seas 2 feet or less through the rest of the week and into the weekend.
(Today through Friday) The subtropical ridge is centered over MS this morning and extends to the west over TX. The upper ridge will continue to dominate keeping the forecast rain free. The low level flow will remain from the southeast keeping warm, moist air in place. Dewpoint temperatures will mix out into the lower 60s to lower 70s.
Otherwise, an upper level ridge of high pressure will continue to stretch across the Deep South through Friday afternoon. A very moist airmass will remain entrenched across our forecast area underneath the ridge axis through Friday afternoon, with precipitable water values continuing to average between 2-2.
There should be a break in the thunderstorm activity overnight, but more thunderstorms are expected Friday ahead of an advancing cold front.
Ridging is expected to remain over the western CONUS over the next several days while slowly amplifying.
Our area is currently under high pressure with weak northwest flow aloft as the high pressure ridge axis is just off the Pacific coast. High pressure will strengthen slightly through the period bringing continued dry conditions, overall clear skies, and gradual warming. Winds will be slightly breezy in the afternoon, gusts of around 15 to 25 mph, especially on Friday afternoon as a weak trough passes over western Montana.
The area looks to dry out over the weekend as high pressure builds across the Ohio Valley. Behind the weak low pressure, drier conditions are expected through the overnight with the primary frontal boundary still well off the west. After a couple days featuring a stalled frontal boundary and moist atmospheric conditions, the 500 mb trough will finally dig into the Great Lakes through the day on Friday.
1244 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024 (Today and tonight) High temperatures today will be fairly similar to what was observed yesterday as our overall pattern won't change much ahead of the approaching cold front. Based on the timing of the front most of the area should still warm into the upper 90s to lower 100s, while the far southwestern Texas Panhandle may only warm into the lower to mid 90s. Behind the front temperatures will be cooler with overnight lows dropping into the 60s on the Caprock with lower 70s across the Rolling Plains.
With some unsettled weather over the Midwest and a massive ridge of high pressure over the eastern Pacific, the Northern Rockies will stay under northwest flow aloft heading into the weekend.
The forecast calls for the area to shift to the back side of the upper troughing with high surface pressure moving in behind the front. With drier air moving in with the front, mostly sunny skies are expected today along with mild temperatures around the low 80's. Will need to keep an eye out for a pop up storm off the higher terrain in Eastern Colorado with the northwesterly flow, but the overall drier air is keeping chances around 15% or less. Tomorrow, the relatively mild conditions are forecast to continue with the upper trough still impacting the area and keeping us in northwest flow. Winds should be lighter as the higher pressure diffuses to the northeast with speeds around 10 mph from the northwest.
- Systems rippling over the top of the high pressure ridge could bring passing clouds and occasionally breezy conditions over the coming days. High pressure centered over the West Coast is keeping us under dry northwest flow making for a quiet day overall.
1025 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024 - Slightly below normal temperatures settle in today, with highs in the low to mid 80s for the next several days.
Deep layer ridging will slide in following the departure of the nearby tropical system. Temperatures rose to near 90 today with heat indices just below Heat Advisory criteria, and there are no features to suggest any relief to the high temperatures.
This broad trough is helping to drive a frontal system through the area (more about that later. A cold front continues to slowly drift southward and, as of early this afternoon, was situated from near Muleshoe to Turkey.
108 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024 (Today through Friday Night) High pressure continues to reign over SE Texas through the next couple of days; however, an approaching cold front from the Dallas- Fort Worth area may produce isolated showers for northern counties.