Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Similar conditions are expected again tomorrow, with only very slight cooling of a degree or two in response to weak troughing approaching northern California. By Thursday, deepening southerly flow ahead of a weak trough across California will spread low-grade monsoonal moisture into our eastern zones, mainly across far southern Nevada, the eastern Mojave Desert, and Northwest Arizona.
The forecast area remains situated between a weak inverted trough over the central Gulf, a trough moving into the Mississippi Valley, and the subtropical ridge over FL. The trough currently moving into the Mississippi Valley will move eastward today, while the trough/low currently impacting the area becomes absorbed in the longer wave trough. The axis of this trough will push east of the area by this afternoon, with flow aloft becoming more zonal. Meanwhile, a ridge of high pressure will build westward along the Gulf Coast, with high pressure settling into the area for the latter half of the work week.
Ridging to our north will start to shift south today however we will look to have one more day of southeasterly flow.
Showers and thunderstorms become increasingly likely today, as a mid/upper-level short wave trough drives a surface cold front toward the area. Coverage will maximized during peak heating this afternoon, before waning around sunset on loss of heating, and the exodus of the short wave trough. With modest CAPE for mid/late summer, in the 1500-2500 J/kg range, a high freezing level and weak to modest deep layer bulk shear keep the severe weather threat low, and SPC continues to carry a general thunderstorm outlook. With PW values up around 2 inches fueled by surface dew points in the low to mid 70s F across lower elevations, and h85 dew points up around 15 C, the potential for locally heavy rainfall exists, especially with increased precipitation coverage in the light flow regime.
412 AM EDT Wed Aug 13 2025 High pressure to the east will produce more typical hot and humid summertime conditions with afternoon and early evening thunderstorms through mid to late week.
153 AM EDT Wed Aug 13 2025 - Showers and Storms Likely This Afternoon/Evening With A Few Severe Storms Possible - Cooler and Dry Late Week - Hot This Weekend With Showers/Storms Possible - Showers and Storms Likely This Afternoon and Evening With A Few Severe Storms Possible This morning's storms have led to a differential heating boundary developing roughly from BIV to GRR to AMN. - Cooler and Dry Late Week A cold front crosses the area tonight into Wednesday morning, bringing notably drier air with it. High pressure then moves in for the late week period keeping conditions dry. Mid-level troughing will accompany this high pressure with 850mb temps falling into the mid teens Celsius.
235 AM CDT Wed Aug 13 2025 Forecast discussion for routine morning forecast issuance - Quiet conditions, cooler, and less humid today once patchy, morning ground fog burns off.
227 AM MDT Wed Aug 13 2025 - Hot today/Thursday with elevated to near-critical fire weather conditions for parts of northeastern WY/southwestern SD - Slight risk (level 2 of 5) of severe thunderstorms later this afternoon/evening - Better QPF chances this weekend, but low confidence in details 08z surface analysis had lee trough from central MT through central WY with weak boundary from the MT/WY line through northern SD. Water vapour loop featured upper ridge over the southwest CONUS with west/northwest flow over the northern Plains. Plume of steep mid-level lapse rates ahead of it as well as surface moisture return ahead of lee trough will create 1-1. Thursday, upper ridge slides eastward putting CWA under southwest flow aloft. Thermal ridge peaks with a 90% chance (HREF) of 100F from Hot Springs to Philip.
202 AM EDT Wed Aug 13 2025 A weak cold front will cross the area today producing scattered showers and thunderstorms with very uneven coverage. A mid level trough will move east across northern Ontario and Quebec through tonight. Upper level forcing looks fairly weak as supporting trough shears away to the north and east. This will leave a weakly forced cold frontal boundary crossing the region today. A few showers will linger especially from the Southern Tier into the central New York as the cold front slowly exits the area. High pressure over Ontario will build east into Quebec, and continue further east to the Canadian Maritimes and northern New England through the period.
- High pressure will result in benign weather Wednesday into Thursday, with just a small /20%/ chance of showers/tstms far north Wed night and Thursday.
447 AM EDT Wed Aug 13 2025 * Cold front moves in from the north tonight and slows/stalls over the state tonight.
136 AM EDT Wed Aug 13 2025 - Cooler Wednesday and Wednesday night, but high temperatures rebounding above-normal to near-normal for the late week.
217 AM EDT Wed Aug 13 2025 High pressure to the east will produce more typical hot and humid summertime conditions with afternoon and early evening thunderstorms through mid to late week.
- Isolated afternoon high based showers/weak thunderstorms over and near the higher terrain Wednesday. - Increased fire danger Thursday for scattered afternoon high based showers and dry thunderstorms over and near the higher terrain.
1241 AM CDT Wed Aug 13 2025 - 20-50% rain chances today with cooler temperatures in the mid 80s to low 90s.
348 AM EDT Wed Aug 13 2025 - A Little Cooler and Drier Next Couple Days - Hot This Weekend With Showers/Storms Possible - A Little Cooler and Drier Next Couple Days Areas of fog and low stratus will lift and scatter out later this morning.
Dry and fairly calm conditions prevail over the area this afternoon with mostly sunny skies aside from typical diurnal cumulus mainly concentrated over and near the mountains and elevated ridges. Westerly flow aloft dominates overhead while the stout ridge has been suppressed into the desert southwest. This will increase the pressure gradient over the High Plains and lead to a modest low-level jet event late this evening into Wednesday morning. Look for gusty southerly winds over much of the High Plains, particularly on the higher/windier portions of the Pine and Cheyenne Ridges. Rapid warm air advection will take place aloft over the next 24 hours as the ridge axis shifts eastward. An upper level ridge starts to slowly break down on Thursday and push off to the east as an upper level system tracks eastward across the Canadian providences.
317 AM EDT Wed Aug 13 2025 - Cooler today and tonight, but high temperatures rebounding above- normal to near-normal for the late week.
205 AM EDT Wed Aug 13 2025 Showers and thunderstorms are possible today as a weak cold front drops south.
The models are in good agreement placing the high pressure centered over the Great Basin extending from the Pacific Coast to Western Colorado and southern Idaho south into Mexico, but satellite analysis puts the center of the high more over southern Utah. This indicates the high is shifting eastward a little faster which may impact the forecast for tomorrow by allowing more moisture to slip in under the high as it slides to the east increase the coverage of thunderstorms across the San Juans through the afternoon, up from isolated to scattered thunderstorms in the current forecast. On Thursday a trough over the Great Basin continues progressing eastward, which has pushed the high pressure towards the Southern Plains.
- Cooler and dry conditions tonight through Thursday.
Thunderstorm activity today will shift to the south and east this afternoon as drier southwest flow advances into more of the region due to a trough reaching the west coast, while the high pressure ridge retreats to the Four Corners region.
Upper ridging reestablishes itself tonight, as well as sfc lee side troughing. The trough sharpens by 21z, offering a defined sfc boundary for convection. Upper ridging will lead to hot temperatures across south central SD both Wednesday and Thursday. While convection appears more likely north of the cap in ND, there is a marginal risk that extends southwest as far as the Missouri River Thursday evening in the axis of the low.
700 AM EDT Wed Aug 13 2025 - Cooler today and tonight, but high temperatures rebounding above- normal to near-normal for the late week.
1052 PM EST Fri Dec 13 2024 Broad high pressure will build into the region over the weekend for fair weather and temperatures running below normal.
(This evening through Saturday) The axis of the upper trough that is currently over the Arizona/New Mexico state line will continue to push eastward through the afternoon and should make it to the Texas/New Mexico state line by 00Z. The upper trough will move across the FA during the overnight hours with a Pacific front following. The front will serve moreso as a dryline as dewpoints will drop into the teens across most of the FA while afternoon highs will remain in the low to mid 60s.
It still looks like the cold front associated with this trough will work into the region by this evening, before stalling and becoming more diffuse into Sunday.
With winds becoming light near and east of the I-65 corridor, temperatures have dropped into the lower 40s north of the Tennessee River.
1055 PM CST Fri Dec 13 2024 Instability forecast to increase aloft as an upper-trough across the Central Plains deepens into a closed low that translates east across the Midwest late tonight into Saturday.
241 AM CST Sat Dec 14 2024 - Freezing rain across extreme north central and northeastern Missouri will come to an end this morning as temperatures rise above freezing.
(Today and tonight) The cold front has pushed through the region bringing light northwesterly winds behind it. The low pressure system responsible for the FROPA currently sits north of the region and will gradually move eastward today where a low amplitude ridge will move overhead tonight. On the surface, a trough will form this afternoon shifting winds to the southwest although should remain light.
The NBM numbers have been a tad on the high side with high temperatures.
Currently, satellite and observations show a mid-latitude cyclone is working across the central Plains with the low pressure center over south-central Kansas early this morning. Another low pressure system is currently working onshore over the Pacific Northwest region. Quickly behind the current system will be a low amplitude mid level ridge which will work across the area on Sunday making for likely the warmest day of the period.
ridging south across the Eastern U. Temperatures in the upper 50s to lower 60s not likely to fall much overnight, maybe reaching the lower 50s across Central Louisiana. 08/DML (Tonight through Sunday night) High pressure off the southeast U. coast will ridge into the forecast area for the remainder of the weekend. This will provide modest southeast flow in the low levels that will bring in an increase in moisture and warm temperatures. A short wave trough moving out of the Southern Plains and Texas on Saturday will work with the increase in moisture to provide a chance for showers a few thunderstorms, especially during the afternoon into early evening hours. The short wave will move off to the east on Sunday with some upper level ridging and drier air in the mid levels.
1101 PM CST Fri Dec 13 2024 - Freezing rain and drizzle is anticipated across portions of NE KS and northern MO later this afternoon/evening. Temperatures continue to warm this afternoon and evening which will reduce freezing drizzle/rain potential especially along and south of I-70.
936 PM CST Fri Dec 13 2024 Instability forecast to increase aloft as an upper-trough across the Central Plains deepens into a closed low that translates east across the Midwest late tonight into Saturday.
A low pressure system is currently tracking over the forecast area, and will continue to progress eastward tonight. Steep lapse rates and relatively high ratios will result in 2-4 inches for the higher terrain in general with the potential for 6 inches in the Park Range. Dry air filtering into the region should help erode some cloud cover tonight, especially across the south and west, so some locations will be cooler than this morning. Tomorrow a low amplitude ridge passes over the region leading to slightly warmer conditions. The next system quickly follows behind the ridge with the associated mid to upper level moisture increasing through out the day.
1200 AM EST Sat Dec 14 2024 High pressure builds across the region, bringing a brief period of dry but cold conditions into the weekend. no significant changes were made with this update as high pressure continues to build across the region. As strong low level ridging and subsidence builds east into our region, the clouds should erode, especially midnight to daybreak.
238 AM CST Sat Dec 14 2024 - Freezing rain will bring slick roads and surfaces to areas near and west of the Illinois River late tonight through the morning.
Currently at the surface we are looking at a strong high pressure located in New England spreading its influence down the east coast. As we start next work week the New England high pressure will be pushing into the Atlantic. At the same time a weak upper level ridge will form in the Gulf of Mexico and start heading towards the state.
There is also upper level ridging that is building over the midwest through the day. The locations of the high pressures will keep our temperatures on the warm side with highs today in the upper 60s to low 70s across the region, with lows tonight in the mid to upper 50s.
Temperatures are in the upper 60s to near 70 degree and dew points are in the lower 60s. Generally fresh to strong northeast winds will continue across the Keys coastal waters through the end of the week, and into this weekend as a large high pressure area moves slowly eastward across the eastern United States. As the high pressure progresses eastward, the magnitude of the northeasterly breezes will fluctuate. Near the end of the week, the high will be lifted northeastward, and the next cold front will be able to approach the forecast area.
1015 PM MST Fri Dec 13 2024 - Snow showers in the mountains and generally minor travel impacts over the higher passes, gradually ending overnight.
Active weather will continue through most of the TAF period under the influence of a low pressure system west of Washington state.
A short wave trough will lift out of the southern Plains and pass to our north today. We will see a dry start to the day but as the trough lifts we will see an increasing low level jet and increase in warm air advection ahead of a cold front. As the low level jet amplifies we will see breezy winds develop across the area with wind gusts up to 25 mph between 2 PM and 4 AM. The short wave will lift north on Sunday preventing the cold front from sweeping through our area.
1129 PM CST Fri Dec 13 2024 - Fog, freezing fog, drizzle and freezing drizzle are all possible in central Kansas this evening and tonight, along with small chances for thunderstorms. A robust upper level disturbance will approach the high plains this evening. Freezing drizzle is possible along I-70 where temperatures may fall just below freezing before the drizzle ends. Also, some fog and freezing fog are possible in central Kansas later tonight after 05-06z as winds become light northerly.
Transient upper ridging over eastern Kentucky early this morning will give way to an approaching negatively-tilted upper low/trough approaching the area tonight and passing the area Sunday on its way to the Lower Great Lakes region. A strong veering wind profile with height indicative of warm advection will occur through the period, which will bring warmer conditions into the region after this morning's chilly conditions, but also plentiful cloud cover and, beginning tonight, precipitation chances in the form of showers that will continue through the end of the period early Sunday evening. The cloud cover and warm, moist advection into the region will temper temperatures on the high end but also result in mild low temperatures, with highs in the 50s today and tomorrow, and lows tonight in the 40s.
331 AM EST Sat Dec 14 2024 High pressure will bring dry and slightly warmer weather through Sunday morning.
Some freezing rain possible right along the high mountainous NE TN/NW NC state line after midnight. With the warming fetch aloft, temps in the highest mountains of the NC state line area of northeast TN and adjacent Washington Co VA will flirt with the lower 30s, and the vertical profile is suggestive of freezing rain rather than snow at altitude. Even so, minor ice accumulations right along the highest TN/VA terrain of the TN/NC state line area are possible from roughly midnight into mid morning.
As such, did work to lower the high temperatures by blending the NBM with the NAM and CONSshort. With that in mind the low temperatures for tonight are expected to be in the mid to upper 60s for the area. However, model analysis is leaning to more partly cloudy skies thus allowing for slightly warmer temperatures for Sunday. As such the current projected high temperatures for Sunday are in the low 80s for Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley. However, if skies do end up being mostly cloudy over the area, then the high temperatures will be lower than what is currently projected.
A surface front associated with this low will attempt to make it into the region but likely stall out well north of our area.
(Today through Sunday) Low-level ridging will maintain some of its influence over the area as an upper trough skirts by to our north. Wedge flow will promote cooler temperatures across northeast Alabama with warmer temperatures across southwest Alabama for Saturday and Sunday.
The cold front has now passed, with post-frontal showers currently streaming onshore and across the forecast area. Showers will continue through the rest of the day, with another uptick in activity later this morning and this afternoon as the upper level trough axis swings through overhead.
500 AM CST Sat Dec 14 2024 (Today through Sunday) Low-level ridging will maintain some of its influence over the area as an upper trough skirts by to our north. Wedge flow will promote cooler temperatures across northeast Alabama with warmer temperatures across southwest Alabama for Saturday and Sunday.
An upper trough is over the central Plains with precipitation developing and moving along and ahead of the upper trough. There is uncertainty with this higher end amount due to not knowing if some areas of precipitation are falling as rain or freezing rain. The convection and drizzle will continue to move eastward this morning as the upper trough moves east. Generally expect the coldest temperatures to be across eastern portions of the forecast area with highs ranging from the low 30s to the upper 40s. Winds will switch to the south tonight as the upper low/trough continues to move east. An upper trough will begin moving over the northern and central Plains on Sunday.
431 AM EST Sat Dec 14 2024 - Mixed precipitation chances tonight into Sunday with freezing rain/ drizzle possible, especially for interior portions of northern Lower Michigan.
(Today and tonight) The upper level trough is currently located north of the Texas Panhandle and will continue to move east today. At the surface, a weak cold front is expected to move into the Big Country this morning. Behind the front, temperatures will be a few degrees cooler, but other than that, we'll see limited impacts from this front.
The associated cold front will track east towards the ArkLaMiss area later today, and will stall out to our northwest. Showers will continue across our CWA later tonight as the embedded closed low pushes off to the east towards the Ohio Valley Region.
With a strong LLJ in place, isentropic ascent at the 305K level, good moisture convergence, and a mid-level trough axis just to the west, expect this trend of showers and isolated thunderstorms to continue through the day today.
- The winter precipitation forecast continues to evolve, with moderate confidence in accumulating freezing rain occurring across many locations. A strong low level inversion and sufficient moisture transport will aid in a complex weather scenario of freezing rain, rain, and snow Saturday night through Sunday evening. General consensus among the HRW Fv3, HRRR, and NAM NEST is for the low levels to become saturated by 12Z Sunday, which would allow more of a freezing rain event. A slowly eroding warm layer will result in up to two tenths of an inch of freezing rain. A quickly eroding layer will result in lower freezing rain amounts and higher snow amounts.
525 AM CST Sat Dec 14 2024 - Freezing drizzle remains possible today across portions of the region, mainly south of Highway 200 in west-central Minnesota.
532 AM CST Sat Dec 14 2024 - Freezing rain across extreme north central and northeastern Missouri will come to an end this morning as temperatures rise above freezing.
Best opportunity for sea fog will be north of Port Aransas where water temperatures will be a bit cooler and flow is a bit more onshore. High temperatures warm into the lower 80s for a lot of the area.
630 AM EST Sat Dec 14 2024 Broad high pressure will build into the region over the weekend for fair weather and temperatures running below normal.
625 AM EST Sat Dec 14 2024 High pressure will bring dry and slightly warmer weather through Sunday morning.
531 AM CST Sat Dec 14 2024 - Freezing rain will bring slick roads and surfaces to areas near and west of the Illinois River late tonight through the morning.
Showers in central Kansas could briefly change to a light wintry mix before diminishing as temperatures hover near freezing. Seasonably mild temperatures are anticipated today with highs in the low to mid 50s for most areas.
In response to the trough look for locally breezy south to southwest winds at 10 to 20 mph primarily at elevations about 6000 feet. High pressure will be the dominate feature delivering above seasonal average daytime temperatures, chilly overnight lows with a dry air mass in place and periods of clouds spinning off stronger storm activity over the Pacific Ocean.
(Rest of Today) Cloud cover continues to spread into the area out of the WSW, as a weak upper ridge axis moves east of the mid TN Valley, while an upper low/trough pattern rotates eastward thru the mid Plains. The exiting ridge axis coupled with the developing return flow pattern will also help afternoon highs climb mainly into the mid/upper 50s for most spots.
634 AM EST Sat Dec 14 2024 - Mixed precipitation chances tonight into Sunday with freezing rain/ drizzle possible, especially for interior portions of northern Lower Michigan.
The persistent robust low level winds will also help in keeping temperatures relatively warmer than previous days, with overnight lows remaining in the mid-upper 60s inland, and in the low 70s near the coasts.
While cloud cover and some brief rain showers have tempered some today's daytime heat, the higher temperatures along the island chain are in the upper 70s and very close to 80 with dewpoints relatively unchanged in the upper 60s. High pressure across the Eastern Seaboard will begin to shift into the western North Atlantic allowing for another reinvigorating of northeasterly breezes overnight and into Sunday particularly in the eastern Straits of Florida.
As the upper-level support is displaced farther north, the cold front will slow its eastward progression into our NW zones before eventually stalling and washing out later on tonight. It still looks like the cold front associated with this trough will work into the region by this evening, before stalling and becoming more diffuse into Sunday.
1256 PM MST Sat Dec 14 2024 - Patchy freezing fog possible late tonight and early Sunday morning from Norton County in northwest Kansas to Red Willow County in southwest Nebraska. Upper ridge axis is moving across the area today allowing temperatures to warm into the 50s. Main concern tonight is whether the low clouds and freezing fog will return to those far eastern areas. In the afternoon will see some marginally breezy northwest winds as winds attempt to mix down behind the trough axis, but only seeing gusts in the 20-25kt range for a few hours in northwest half of the area.