Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Water vapor imagery currently shows upper ridging from the Desert Southwest into the Northern High Plains with an upper trough approaching the Pacific Northwest. At the surface, high pressure is centered over the Upper Mississippi Valley with a stationary front from eastern Nebraska into the Ohio Valley. Very little is expected to change in the overall pattern today, with the Western CONUS ridge centered over the Desert Southwest and the nearly stationary impulse over southwest TX. By Mon, upper ridging will start to quickly strengthen over the Southern Plains into the Desert Southwest and will expand into the Central Rockies for Tue into Wed. Aviation concerns look to still remain on the low side.
While current temperatures are running a little cooler compared to 24 hours ago, it remains very mild across the region early this morning with most areas still in the 70s and 80s. It won't be quite as hot today as high pressure retreats a bit in response to the strong trough moving across the PacNW and western Canada. Dry and breezy conditions will continue Friday as the tail end of the trough moves across accompanied by a tight vort center.
(Now through Friday) The forecast area will remain sandwiched between an upper trough to our northwest and an upper ridge to our southeast. Diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms will re-develop Friday afternoon, with the highest coverage expected across the southwestern portion of the forecast area.
With a weak cold front expected to aid in forcing did not want to totally omit thunder wording. Precipitation tapers off this evening as high pressure slowly seeps farther south overnight.
529 AM CDT Thu Jul 25 2024 (Today through Friday) Satellite imagery this morning shows a very similar picture compared to the past few mornings with a broad upper-level trough to our north and moist southwesterly flow over Middle TN. By Friday, the broad trough finally begins to move to the east as ridging begins to build across the area.
(This evening through Friday) A 600 dam mid-level ridge remains centered across the southwest U. with an elongated weakness/trough axis in the ridge across Arkansas, southeast Oklahoma, and eastern Texas. The trough axis will consolidate with a vorticity maxima off the upper Texas coast and will evolve toward a mid/upper-level low near the Arklatex on Friday. With the mid-level ridge and the attendant low-level thermal ridge remaining to the west, temperatures will remain near to slightly below-average ranging from the mid 80s (southeast) to mid 90s deg F (west into north central).
1246 PM CDT Thu Jul 25 2024 (Today through Friday) Models are beginning to agree a little more on the lower rain chances today as the models were hinting at yesterday. Areas across the north and west will continue to see high rain chances as they will be closer to the weak trough in place. As we move into Friday, the higher PWs will be in the southern and western portions of the area, therefore the best chances reside here.
Generally favorable boating conditions as the ridge axis of the Atlantic high slides south across the local waters later today.
A downward trend in activity is then expected over the weekend, along with cooler temperatures. As we head towards this afternoon, showers and thunderstorms will once again develop, though they will start to shift eastward in response to a trough digging down from the northwest. High pressure remains situated over Arizona today, keeping chances for showers and thunderstorms in the forecast again this afternoon. Overall through, 0-6 km shear looks to be virtually nothing with the high directly overhead, so the threat for any organized severe storms is minimal.
High pressure aloft continues over the southwest while a deep closed low continues to move north off the central California coast. This low will merge with the Pac NW trough and help the trough to cover most of the West Coast, almost down to San Diego.
As an upper level trough continues to lift northeastward into the Ohio River Valley, these showers are forecast to continue through the late evening hours before decreasing in chance overnight (less than 20%).
1201 PM CDT Thu Jul 25 2024 (Today and tonight) Currently, west central Texas is on the west side of an upper level trough that extends from northeastern Arkansas into south central Texas. There are numerous showers and a few thunderstorms along the Texas Gulf coast on the eastern side of the trough. The trough is expected to move very little today, with additional showers and thunderstorms developing around it. With somewhat higher moisture content in these counties, additional cloud cover, and proximity to the upper trough will keep temperatures mainly in the 80s in that same area.
Discussion: A weak surface boundary can be noted with Td surface observations in central KY and northward in the upper 60s where as most observations in southern KY and through our forecast area remain in the low 70s.
(This evening through Friday night) Mostly quiet weather is expected to prevail in the short term as the region remains under the influence of upper level ridging that is centered across the southwest United States.
1234 PM EDT Thu Jul 25 2024 A cold front will bring some isolated to scattered showers to the region today. Behind the front, it will become noticeably drier and cooler, setting the stage for a pleasant weekend. Minimal changes were needed to the forecast as the cold front continues to push through the region. Shower activity continues to wane across the region early this morning ahead of the approaching cold front that will push across the region today. Friday will be a beautiful day across the region as high pressure builds over the Great Lakes and northwesterly flow continues, allowing for plenty of sunshine.
1101 AM CDT Thu Jul 25 2024 - High pressure will dominate the latter half of the week with at or just below average temperatures.
137 PM EDT Thu Jul 25 2024 Chances for showers and storms continue today with cold front passage. Cold front, difficult to find in observations, does appear to have entered our WV counties.
Highs on Friday will range from the low/mid 90s along the Rio Grande to the mid and upper 80s farther east into the Hill Country, I-35 corridor and coastal plains.
Water vapor imagery currently shows upper ridging from the Desert Southwest into the Northern High Plains with an upper trough approaching the Pacific Northwest. At the surface, high pressure is centered over the Upper Mississippi Valley with a stationary front from eastern Nebraska into the Ohio Valley. Very little is expected to change in the overall pattern today, with the Western CONUS ridge centered over the Desert Southwest and the nearly stationary impulse over southwest TX. By Mon, upper ridging will start to quickly strengthen over the Southern Plains into the Desert Southwest and will expand into the Central Rockies for Tue into Wed.
As the front pinches the high south and east, this window of Saharan dust will move on and additional moisture will return over the region. A mid- level reflection of the TUTT is evident with a trough or low developing at this level as well.
205 PM CDT Thu Jul 25 2024 - After a drier day on Friday, shower and thunderstorm chances ramp up this weekend with a trough moving through. A back door cold front has moved into the region today with easterly winds behind it. Kimble Aloft we see a strong western US ridge which has brought extreme heat to the desert southwest in recent days with downstream troughing over the Northeast and weaker troughing extending into Texas.
Conditions slowly improve over the weekend and drier and sunnier skies return as high pressure builds in from the north. With that said, mostly cloudy skies seem likely through Friday evening, along with a few mountains showers over the Blue Ridge and perhaps an isolated thunderstorms across the North Carolina mountains. The cold front that will have crossed the area during the day Friday will be situated across the Carolinas by Friday night, so some isolated to scattered showers and possible storms may linger overnight along and south of the VA/NC border. The airmass behind the front will be drier and cooler, and temperatures will fall closer to seasonal norms.
Issued by National Weather Service Shreveport LA 1222 PM CDT Thu Jul 25 2024 An upper-level trough across the mid-Mississippi Valley extending southwest into southeast Texas will maintain increased instability across the region allowing for widespread rain showers with the possibility of embedded thunder throughout the day. The plume of deep tropical moisture remains stretched southwest to northeast from the western Gulf across the Southeast states to the east of an upper-level trough axis. While the northern stream portion of the trough pulls east of the Great Lakes today, a cut off portion of energy will spin over the Lower Mississippi River Valley.
(This evening through Friday) An upper level low will remain across coastal Texas through the next 24 hours with an upper level ridge extending from northwest Mexico into the Central and Southern Plains.
The North Atlantic ridging pattern that has been in place will continue to do so, but will be eroded by the progression of a trough currently over the northeastern U.
For western Montana winds will gust 30 to 35 mph in valleys, while along the ridges gusts 40 to 45 mph.
The mid/upper level high will nudge a bit more to the south Friday over western Arizona with the mid level steering flow weakening into the 5 to 10 kt range.
A potent 599dam ridge over the Desert Southwest continues to expand eastward over the Plains today. Otherwise, another seasonably warm afternoon is expected under mostly sunny (this morning) to partly cloudy skies (this afternoon); high temperatures will reach the low-mid 90s in most locations. Mejia (Today) Temperatures are forecast to be another degree or two warmer this afternoon with high temperatures near normal for this time of year.
144 PM EDT Thu Jul 25 2024 High pressure will ridge across the area into the weekend, with some drier air in place across the central and southern zones from an approaching TUTT low.
High pressure will gradually encroach from the northwest overnight, increasing subsidence and drying profiles. Friday will be defined by high pressure, subsidence, dry conditions, and mostly clear skies save a few cumulus with daytime mixing.
(This evening through Friday) The current synoptic pattern features a positively tilted trough over TX and a ridge centered over AZ. As an upper level low currently over British Columbia swings eastward today and tomorrow, the ridge will begin to be squeezed south and east, putting the forecast area under NNE flow aloft by tonight.
(The rest of this afternoon ) Partly to mostly sunny conditions will prevail the rest of the day with temperatures in the low to mid 90s this afternoon. There will be sufficient instability to allow for a few very isolated showers and storms to pop up this afternoon, mainly in the higher terrain, but most areas will be dry.
135 PM EDT Thu Jul 25 2024 A cold front will bring some isolated to scattered showers to the region today. Behind the front, it will become noticeably drier and cooler, setting the stage for a pleasant weekend. Minimal changes were needed to the forecast as the cold front continues to push through the region. Shower activity continues to wane across the region early this morning ahead of the approaching cold front that will push across the region today. Friday will be a beautiful day across the region as high pressure builds over the Great Lakes and northwesterly flow continues, allowing for plenty of sunshine.
/13 (Now through Friday) The forecast area will remain sandwiched between an upper trough to our northwest and an upper ridge to our southeast. Diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms will re-develop Friday afternoon, with the highest coverage expected across the southwestern portion of the forecast area.
The cold front passed through the region this morning, bringing in much drier conditions. High pressure will move into the region for tomorrow and it will bring mostly sunny skies. Patchy fog formation is possible as well, as crossover temperatures will be in the low to mid 50s As of 259 PM EDT Thursday.
A strong elongated ridge extends from over the Desert Southwest northeast to over the North-Central Plains while a longwave positive-tilted trough extends from over Southeast Canada southwest to over the Tennessee Valley Region. Longwave positive-tilted troughing will persist to our northwest overnight while more mid-level disturbances will move over Northern Mississippi northeast over Northwest Alabama and Southern Tennessee overnight. Low temperatures will range from around 70 north to the low 70s southeast. A weakness aloft will persist over the Mid-South and ArkLaTex regions to our west on Friday while the longwave trough pulls further away to the northeast. High temperatures will range from the mid 80s northwest to the low 90s southeast.
1109 AM PDT Thu Jul 25 2024 Gusty west winds will raise concerns for wildfire spread today, but the the wind will also deliver cooler temperatures to our region.
429 PM EDT Thu Jul 25 2024 Chances for showers and storms continue this evening with cold front passage. Sent a quick update to concentrate PoPs along and south of a diffused cold front moving slowly south across WV at this time. Cold front, difficult to find in observations, does appear to have entered our WV counties.
(This evening through Friday Night) Current KSHV radar has showers and isolated thunderstorms moving across the region due to embedded remnants of a stalled frontal boundary within the trough axis over the area. A developing, cut-off low in E.
628 PM CDT Thu Jul 25 2024 (This evening through Friday) A 600 dam mid-level ridge remains centered across the southwest U. with an elongated weakness/trough axis in the ridge across Arkansas, southeast Oklahoma, and eastern Texas. The trough axis will consolidate with a vorticity maxima off the upper Texas coast and will evolve toward a mid/upper-level low near the Arklatex on Friday. With the mid-level ridge and the attendant low-level thermal ridge remaining to the west, temperatures will remain near to slightly below-average ranging from the mid 80s (southeast) to mid 90s deg F (west into north central).
617 PM CDT Thu Jul 25 2024 (The rest of this afternoon ) Partly to mostly sunny conditions will prevail the rest of the day with temperatures in the low to mid 90s this afternoon. There will be sufficient instability to allow for a few very isolated showers and storms to pop up this afternoon, mainly in the higher terrain, but most areas will be dry.
622 PM CDT Thu Jul 25 2024 - After a drier day on Friday, shower and thunderstorm chances ramp up this weekend with a trough moving through. A back door cold front has moved into the region today with easterly winds behind it. Kimble Aloft we see a strong western US ridge which has brought extreme heat to the desert southwest in recent days with downstream troughing over the Northeast and weaker troughing extending into Texas.
From synopsis, moderate east to southeast breezes will gradually slacken to light to gentle by this weekend as ridging in the North Atlantic retreats east.
The high risk of grass fires in the valley continues, with enhanced fire behavior even with lower wind speeds. An upper level high pressure ridge currently centered over western Arizona is expected to weaken and shift southward over the next few days. This system has brought above-normal temperatures to the region for the past week, along with thunderstorms in the higher elevations of the Sierra Nevada as tropical moisture entrained northward due to the anticyclonic flow around the center. These chances fall to 10 to 30 percent across central California for Friday as the high pressure system aloft weakens.
------------------------------------------------------------------- High pressure will gradually encroach from the northwest overnight, increasing subsidence and drying profiles. Friday will be defined by high pressure, subsidence, dry conditions, and mostly clear skies save a few cumulus with daytime mixing.
709 PM CDT Thu Jul 25 2024 (This evening through Friday Night) Current KSHV radar has showers and isolated thunderstorms moving across the region due to embedded remnants of a stalled frontal boundary within the trough axis over the area. A developing, cut-off low in E.
727 PM EDT Thu Jul 25 2024 Chances for showers and storms continue this evening with cold front passage. Sent a quick update to concentrate PoPs along and south of a diffused cold front moving slowly south across WV at this time. Cold front, difficult to find in observations, does appear to have entered our WV counties.
Our region remains situated between troughing to our northeast and ridging to our west associated with a 598 dam high centered over the Desert Southwest, with weak flow throughout the troposphere. At the surface, high pressure and light winds continue. The western ridge axis has encroached further eastward toward our area, sending higher mid level heights in from the west, and helping send temperatures into the upper 80s to lower 90s as of 3 PM.
/NEW/ /Through Friday Evening/ Weak troughing aloft continues to produce garden-variety showers and storms for another afternoon/evening across North and Central Texas.
A downward trend in activity is then expected over the weekend, along with cooler temperatures. As the high drifts to the south and a quick moving trough drops down from the northwest over the next couple of days, we will start to see a drying trend occur across the region.
532 PM CDT Thu Jul 25 2024 (This evening through Friday night) Mostly quiet weather is expected to prevail in the short term as the region remains under the influence of upper level ridging that is centered across the southwest United States.
Most of today's convection has been restricted mostly to boundary collisions near W FL/coastal locations as current mesoanalysis depicts a SW-NE oriented mid-upper ridge axis situated across the northern peninsula favoring subsidence over much of the forecast area, particularly toward the interior where WV imagery also denotes the presence of drier air. High pressure will ridge across the area into the weekend, with some drier air in place across the central and southern zones from an approaching TUTT low.
Lacy (The rest of this afternoon ) Partly to mostly sunny conditions will prevail the rest of the day with temperatures in the low to mid 90s this afternoon. There will be sufficient instability to allow for a few very isolated showers and storms to pop up this afternoon, mainly in the higher terrain, but most areas will be dry.
914 PM EDT Thu Jul 25 2024 A cold front will move to the south overnight.
632 PM CDT Thu Jul 25 2024 (This evening through Friday) The current synoptic pattern features a positively tilted trough over TX and a ridge centered over AZ. As an upper level low currently over British Columbia swings eastward today and tomorrow, the ridge will begin to be squeezed south and east, putting the forecast area under NNE flow aloft by tonight.
Showers are decreasing behind the last weak trough with another weak trough expecting to briefly increase shower chances over northeastern Vermont over the next few hours. The cold front passed through the region this morning, bringing in much drier conditions. High pressure will move into the region for tomorrow and it will bring mostly sunny skies. Patchy fog formation is possible as well, as crossover temperatures will be in the low to mid 50s As of 259 PM EDT Thursday.
Upper level trough moving off to the northeast today. Weaker upper level trough moving over the area for Friday and the weekend.
610 PM CDT Thu Jul 25 2024 (This evening through Friday) An upper level low will remain across coastal Texas through the next 24 hours with an upper level ridge extending from northwest Mexico into the Central and Southern Plains.
(Today) Mean troughing that has been a feature across the eastern CONUS was finally showing signs of moving more to the east, as upper level ridging begins building over the Great Lakes. Muggy conditions prevailed otherwise with 2AM temperatures across the Tennessee Valley in the low/mid 70s with light winds. Before and between showers, high temperatures should warm into the low/mid 80s.
A downward trend in activity is then expected over the weekend, along with slightly cooler temperatures.
1235 AM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024 (This evening through Friday night) Mostly quiet weather is expected to prevail in the short term as the region remains under the influence of upper level ridging that is centered across the southwest United States.
Partial drying from the north as the high center reconsolidates into a blocking position over the weekend.
A Pacific storm system over SW Canada will stay well north of the area today, but will tamp down the upper ridge that has been in place for the past several days. An associated cold front is currently moving through Billings and will press through the forecast area by mid morning. Residual instability (steep mid level lapse rates), upslope winds and weak forcing aloft is forecast to generate isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon over the SW mountains spreading northeast into the lower elevations through the evening. With cooler temperatures around the threat for strong wind gusts with this activity looks low, though a few isolated gusts to 50 mph cant be ruled out along and south of I-90. Highs, once again, will range from the mid 80s to the lower 90s.
The trough axis is expected to be near the Interstate 40 corridor this afternoon and evening.
Thus, the highest chance for showers and thunderstorms this afternoon will be confined to the Florida zones with lesser but still non-zero chances farther north.
1118 PM CDT Thu Jul 25 2024 (This evening through Friday) The current synoptic pattern features a positively tilted trough over TX and a ridge centered over AZ. As an upper level low currently over British Columbia swings eastward today and tomorrow, the ridge will begin to be squeezed south and east, putting the forecast area under NNE flow aloft by tonight.
/19/ (This evening through Friday Night) Current KSHV radar has showers and isolated thunderstorms moving across the region due to embedded remnants of a stalled frontal boundary within the trough axis over the area. A developing, cut-off low in E.
1103 PM CDT Thu Jul 25 2024 - After a drier day on Friday, shower and thunderstorm chances ramp up this weekend with a trough moving through. A back door cold front has moved into the region today with easterly winds behind it. Kimble Aloft we see a strong western US ridge which has brought extreme heat to the desert southwest in recent days with downstream troughing over the Northeast and weaker troughing extending into Texas.
The upper level pattern will not change much to end the work week with a broad mid-level trough stretching from the mid-Mississippi Valley region to deep South Texas. Weak large scale ascent associated with the trough and plenty of moisture will result in isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms through Friday with the best chances across the southeast zones during peak heating. Plenty of clouds under the broad upper trough will keep afternoon temps below seasonal normals with highs from around 80 across the southeast to the mid 90s in the northwest. Friday night will be rather pleasant for late July with lows in the upper 60s to the lower 70s.
Otherwise, highs will be commonly 5 to 10 degrees warmer than today, however, some added uncertainty exists for daytime temps owing to the potential for smoke aloft to affect highs.
(Today) A weak upper low centered near the Texas/Louisiana border will lift slowly north today.