Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Zonal flow has setup across the Lower Mississippi River Valley. This, as high pressure at the surface has become centered east of the CWA. While moisture subtly increases across the region during the period, a closed mid/upper level low pressure system embedded in this zonal flow, will trek west from the southern plains and into the region late tonight into Friday. As far as temperatures are concerned, highs today will again warm into the low and middle 70s as clouds once again increase across the forecast area during the course of the day. Then for tonight, with clouds overhead and showers gradually increasing, lows will fall into the low and middle 50s. With widespread clouds and showers over the CWA, highs Friday will be a little cooler as they range from the upper 50s to upper 60s.
621 AM CDT Thu Mar 21 2024 (Today through Friday afternoon) As a welcomed surprise, the track of the main trough across the southern Great Plains continues to be a bit slower and further south than anticipated. As the main trough axis finally comes overhead this afternoon, the very cold air aloft helps destabilize the atmosphere and additional shower and thunderstorm development is expected by mid- afternoon. It appears likely that a loosely organized cluster of showers and thunderstorms can be anticipated across the northeastern Permian Basin, directly under the upper trough axis.
A low pressure system moving slowly inland along the West Coast for the weekend will bring cooling and periods of strong and gusty west winds.
228 AM PDT Thu Mar 21 2024 Warm and dry weather prevails through Friday morning, before a series of storms brings cooler conditions with gusty winds from late Friday into the weekend.
641 AM CDT Thu Mar 21 2024 (Today through Friday) Overrunning conditions continue across Deep South Texas early this morning as a weak coastal trough lingers over the coastal counties and a warm front advancing northward. Temperatures will quickly warm today behind the warm front. Highs will be in the low to mid 80s, except for the 70s along the coast. Friday will be very warm to hot with highs in the upper 80s to the low 90s across much of the area.
An approaching trough of low pressure will produce wet and unsettled conditions into the weekend.
Temps will be slightly cooler north of I-40 than yesterday, but with plenty of sun, it should still work out to being a solid spring day. RH values will once again be on the low side this afternoon with some falling into the 20s along and north of I-40. The first is Friday and Friday night as an upper level low and associated surface feature slides across the Gulf States. The highest QPF remains across our southeast quadrant, but overall totals have ticked down slightly.
1226 PM CDT Thu Mar 21 2024 (Today through Friday) Overrunning conditions continue across Deep South Texas early this morning as a weak coastal trough lingers over the coastal counties and a warm front advancing northward. Temperatures will quickly warm today behind the warm front. Highs will be in the low to mid 80s, except for the 70s along the coast. Friday will be very warm to hot with highs in the upper 80s to the low 90s across much of the area.
Quiet calm weather through Thursday before unsettled weather returns Friday with a cold front ushering in a cooler and wetter weather pattern.
(Friday Night through next Thursday) The aforementioned surface and upper low will obviously remain to our south, but the inverted trough will come through Friday evening and take the bulk of the moisture with it.
By early Friday with the upper level system is situated over lower MS valley with strong moisture advection across our region ahead of the low.
934 AM PDT Thu Mar 21 2024 Weak high pressure aloft will bring dry, mild weather today and Friday. Over the weekend a trough of low pressure will bring showers, colder weather, and gusty winds.
349 PM EDT Thu Mar 21 2024 High pressure will allow for dry conditions through tonight. A low pressure system and associated frontal boundary will bring precipitation to the region for Friday into Friday night.
Satellite imagery shows upper level low well offshore with the coldest cloud tops also well offshore. Forecasts on track this morning with just a chance of showers this afternoon with the low spinning around offshore. Highest pops Friday night as the weakening front associated with the low moves inland. An approaching trough of low pressure will produce wet and unsettled conditions into the weekend.
A sfc boundary currently positioned generally along Hwy 412 will retreat northward this afternoon as the main upper level low approaches the region.
(Tonight) The potential for showers and a few storms will continue through tonight across much of eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas as an upper level low currently over eastern New Mexico moves across northern Texas. (Friday through Thursday) The chances of showers continues on Friday as the upper level low moves into the lower Mississippi valley and a cold front surges through the area during the afternoon/evening hours.
Water vapor imagery highlights a broad trough complex lumbering east into Texas and northern Mexico. Ahead of the trough, there is an eruption of convection over the northwestern Gulf where surface pressures are falling and the wind field is becoming more cyclonic. The Florida Keys remain under control of the low-level ridge although mid to upper heights are eroding. From synopsis, east to southeast breezes will freshen today and tonight across the Keys waters, as low pressure develops in the Gulf of Mexico.
Temperatures across the island chain are in the lower to mid 80s and dewpoints are near 70. The convergence zone extending southeast from the Lower Keys has enhanced the winds a bit for portions of the Upper Keys which are registering the highest winds at the moment. Meanwhile, heights will lower aloft, strong veering flow will develop in the lower levels (warm front), and strengthening BL winds will set the stage for maintaining this MCS as it near the Keys Friday morning.
(Rest of Today and Tonight) Scattered to broken cloud cover has developed to our SW ahead of the approaching low pressure system moving through the Gulf. With a couple hours remaining of daytime heating before heavier cloud cover moves in, temperatures will likely top out later this afternoon in the low to mid 70s. While confidence in any early showers is very low, rain chances were increased to around 10% after sunset through the night to account for this low potential (previously there were 0% PoP through the night). The higher rain chances will be further discussed in the short term forecast.
301 PM CDT Thu Mar 21 2024 - A cold front will bring modestly cooler temperatures (upper 40s and lower 50s) along with gusty north winds (to 35 MPH) Friday. - An upper level low will cross the local area this weekend bringing widespread chances for precipitation (40-80%), with rain, thunderstorms and snow all possible.
1242 PM CDT Thu Mar 21 2024 (Today through Friday afternoon) As a welcomed surprise, the track of the main trough across the southern Great Plains continues to be a bit slower and further south than anticipated. As the main trough axis finally comes overhead this afternoon, the very cold air aloft helps destabilize the atmosphere and additional shower and thunderstorm development is expected by mid- afternoon. It appears likely that a loosely organized cluster of showers and thunderstorms can be anticipated across the northeastern Permian Basin, directly under the upper trough axis.
Friday is a cooler day with rain overspreading the region during the morning and early afternoon hours.
(This evening through Friday) WV imagery shows the upper trough finally moving east through Texas this afternoon, bringing an end to the cooler, wetter weather of the past week. But not without one last round of convection this afternoon/evening as the trough moves through. Otherwise, weak ridging follows the trough Friday, resulting in highs just above normal.
155 PM PDT Thu Mar 21 2024 Weak high pressure aloft will bring dry weather Friday with morning marine layer clouds dissipating through midday. Over the weekend a trough of low pressure will bring showers, colder weather, and gusty winds.
The higher elevated roadways, particularly Highway 2 from Essex to Marias Pass will see several inches of snow, with 4 to 6 inches accumulating through tomorrow evening.
Warmer, drying weather to finish of the work week. AZ with drier conditions near the surface, and slightly warmer temps aloft. Despite it's departure, we won't go through this Thursday totally dry: a weak wave passing to our north combined with leftover moisture and instability driven by diurnal heating will all work together to develop some isolated showers this afternoon along the higher terrain. Friday ridging will shift over the region bringing dry weather with continued warming.
- Scattered showers (rain/snow mix) likely Friday afternoon and evening between 5 PM to 11 PM EDT ahead of a cold front.
Winds have been gusty across the Snake Plain, with a few observations nudging into the lower end of Wind Advisory criteria. Transitory upper ridge rebuilds across the region for Friday, but dry period is short-lived as warm front lifts northeast into SE Idaho late Friday/Friday night.
Low pressure will continue to approach shore Friday.
We may see a few light showers develop over far northeast portion of the area late tonight but the better chances for light scattered showers will come during the afternoon and evening as the trough approaches. (Friday Night through next Thursday) The aforementioned surface and upper low will obviously remain to our south, but the inverted trough will come through Friday evening and take the bulk of the moisture with it.
With overcast skies and dewpoints increasing, temperatures remain mild, with morning lows only forecast to be in the low to mid 50s.
Showers that developed along a convergence line earlier this afternoon quickly waned, but not before dropping almost a quarter of an inch in some island communities in the Lower Keys. Looking at a synoptic scale, CIMSS mean layer analysis features a trough moving across Texas, which will be a big player in the Florida Keys sensible weather over the next several days. This trough has suppressed ridging even further, with subtle height falls sampled at almost all significant levels by the 00Z sounding. From synopsis, strong east to southeast breezes will continue overnight across the coastal waters of the Florida Keys as low pressure develops in the Gulf of Mexico.
844 PM EDT Thu Mar 21 2024 Friday is a cooler day with rain overspreading the region during the morning and early afternoon hours.
916 PM EDT Thu Mar 21 2024 High pressure will allow for dry conditions overnight. A low pressure system and associated frontal boundary will bring rain to the region Friday into Friday night.
631 PM CDT Thu Mar 21 2024 - A cold front will bring modestly cooler temperatures (upper 40s and lower 50s) along with gusty north winds (to 35 MPH) Friday. - An upper level low will cross the local area this weekend bringing widespread chances for precipitation (40-80%), with rain, thunderstorms and snow all possible.
These should end by midnight as an upper ridge comes in from the west. The ridge, along with southerly surface winds, will bring several degrees warming Friday and fewer clouds than today. Clouds will increase Friday evening as a Pacific cold front approaches.
634 PM CDT Thu Mar 21 2024 (This evening through Friday) WV imagery shows the upper trough finally moving east through Texas this afternoon, bringing an end to the cooler, wetter weather of the past week. But not without one last round of convection this afternoon/evening as the trough moves through. Otherwise, weak ridging follows the trough Friday, resulting in highs just above normal.
645 PM CDT Thu Mar 21 2024 (Tonight) The potential for showers and a few storms will continue through tonight across much of eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas as an upper level low currently over eastern New Mexico moves across northern Texas. (Friday through Thursday) The chances of showers continues on Friday as the upper level low moves into the lower Mississippi valley and a cold front surges through the area during the afternoon/evening hours.
The upper trough is expected to quickly broaden during the day Friday resulting in a gradual weakening of ascent.
357 AM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024 - Gusty winds and sub-freezing temperatures will filter into the region this evening behind a sharpening cold front.
Will have a dry day today as upper ridge moves east over Idaho and expect warm temperatures again with low elevation highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Ridge moves east Saturday and southwest flow aloft will allow Pacific moisture into Idaho and rain and snow will spread west to east through the day and overnight.
925 PM PDT Thu Mar 21 2024 Weak high pressure aloft will bring dry weather Friday with morning marine layer clouds dissipating through midday. Over the weekend a trough of low pressure will bring showers, colder weather, and gusty west winds.
1218 AM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024 - A cold front will bring modestly cooler temperatures (upper 40s and lower 50s) along with gusty north winds (to 35 MPH) Friday. - An upper level low will cross the local area this weekend bringing widespread chances for precipitation (40-80%), with rain, thunderstorms and snow all possible.
An upper trough that passed overhead yesterday has moved east with a weak cold front moving through in its wake.
Multiple rounds of convection are forecast to move through the forecast area along and near the warm front, with the first round already ongoing.
156 AM EDT Fri Mar 22 2024 Friday is a cooler day with rain overspreading the region during the morning and early afternoon hours. The rain continues into Friday night as low pressure passes near/over the forecast area, tapering off to scattered showers on Saturday.
A low pressure centered over eastern Texas will continue to move eastward throughout the period. Friday morning lows will be in the low 60s across the Brush Country and Ranchlands and in the mid 60s farther south over the Rio Grande Valley and along the coast. Sunny skies on Friday will allow for temperatures to rebound into the low 90s across the whole region with the exception of mid-to- upper 80s near the coast. Winds will generally remain light and from the northeast as an area of high pressure approaches well to the north.
248 AM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024 - A strong cold front moves through the area today with gusty north winds and colder temperatures behind it. - Sub-freezing temperatures for overnight lows tonight/ Saturday morning.
(Today through Saturday) Closed 500 mb low pressure currently over east Texas will gradually shift into the Atlantic Seaboard during the period, leaving the BRO CWFA in a nearly zonal mid-level flow.
1237 AM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024 (This evening through Friday) WV imagery shows the upper trough finally moving east through Texas this afternoon, bringing an end to the cooler, wetter weather of the past week. But not without one last round of convection this afternoon/evening as the trough moves through. Otherwise, weak ridging follows the trough Friday, resulting in highs just above normal.
Low pressure and cold front bring rain late Friday into Saturday.
We may see a few light showers develop over far northeast portion of the area late tonight but the better chances for light scattered showers will come during the afternoon and evening as the trough approaches.
Ensemble forecast models and cluster analysis continue to show a mid-level low pressure system developing over southwestern Montana and eastern Idaho Saturday evening. Moisture wrapping around the low combined with the colder air- mass, will have the potential to produce periods of moderate to heavy snow in a narrow band along I-90 from Drummond to Homestake Pass.
349 AM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024 - Well below normal temperatures forecast for today (highs mid 20s to lower 30s, with normal highs in the low to mid 40s).
1018 PM CDT Thu Mar 21 2024 A mid level trough pushing into TX is resulting in clouds across the Mid-South. The trough will track across the Lower MS Valley on Friday spreading rain across areas mainly along and south of I-40. Rain chances return to the Mid- South tomorrow, with cooler and drier conditions on Saturday.
(Today) Cloud cover continues to increase early this morning as a mid/upper trough shifts from the the ArkLaTex into the lower Mississippi Valley. High chances (80-100%) for showers and a few thunderstorms are forecast by the mid/late afternoon as the trough pivots eastward and dynamic lift increases late this afternoon and into the evening hours. Despite the SE/ESE flow, dense cloud cover and the higher rain chances will keep temperatures in check today, with highs in the mid 60s being common.
200 AM EDT Fri Mar 22 2024 High pressure will allow for dry conditions overnight. A low pressure system and associated frontal boundary will bring rain to the region Friday into Friday night.
Expect showers to develop across portions of the Mid-South today before a cold front reaches the area this evening.
1136 PM CDT Thu Mar 21 2024 A mid level trough pushing into TX is resulting in clouds across the Mid-South. The trough will track across the Lower MS Valley on Friday spreading rain across areas mainly along and south of I-40. Rain chances return to the Mid- South tomorrow, with cooler and drier conditions on Saturday.
A closed low pressure system, embedded in westerly flow aloft, will move into and through the region during the course of the day. Behind the system, cooler drier air will begin filtering southeast into the forecast area. With plenty of cloud cover over the region and increasing showers, highs today will be cooler than the past couple of days. Then for tonight, with clouds and rain exiting the area, and the cooler drier air advecting into the region, lows will range from the upper 40s to middle 50s. Cool and dry conditons prevail Saturday under the influence of an upper ridge in the wake of the low pressure system.
Light rain showers will continue through Saturday morning ahead of a crossing cold front.
(Friday through Saturday) Slow moving upper trough directly ovhd attm and will continue to slowly pivot eastward into the Lower Miss Valley by this evening. That should help to hold temps up a bit but with the NBM numbers being on the warmer side of guidance, did not make much in the way of temp changes overnight. What cloud cover is left on Saturday should break during the day as sfc ridging moves ovhd. Again stayed with NBM MOS temperature wise which is on the warmer side of guidance for daytime highs on Saturday.
245 AM PDT Fri Mar 22 2024 Widespread rain, high elevation snow, breezy winds, and cooler weather return today through the weekend with the arrival of our next impactful weather system.
645 AM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024 (Today and tonight) Weak ridging will be in place following the low pressure system that has now moved off to the east. This will result in a lack of rain chances and slightly warmer conditions across the region for this afternoon.
944 AM EDT Fri Mar 22 2024 Low pressure continues to sit in the Gulf of Mexico sending waves of rainshowers across the state. Multiple rounds of convection are forecast to move through the forecast area along and near the warm front, with the first round already ongoing.
445 AM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024 - Gusty winds and sub-freezing temperatures will filter into the region this evening behind a sharpening cold front.
Today through Saturday night Deep upper low along the coast this morning to move inland, bringing active weather for the short term period. Main push of precipitation associated with the cold front moves into the forecast area from the west/northwest around midnight tonight. Enhanced area of instability Saturday afternoon in and near White Pine and NE Nye Counties indicated along the cold front. Cooler Saturday with daytime highs in the low 40s to low 50s, overnight lows in the 20s.
551 AM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024 (Today) Cloud cover continues to increase early this morning as a mid/upper trough shifts from the the ArkLaTex into the lower Mississippi Valley. High chances (80-100%) for showers and a few thunderstorms are forecast by the mid/late afternoon as the trough pivots eastward and dynamic lift increases late this afternoon and into the evening hours. Despite the SE/ESE flow, dense cloud cover and the higher rain chances will keep temperatures in check today, with highs in the mid 60s being common.
Precipitation will exit to the east tonight, and will be followed closely by a cold front from the north. The wind will become less gusty in the afternoon as high pressure builds into the region behind the front.
An upper level low offshore will slowly move east reaching Western Washington on Saturday.
The rain is expected to taper off as a cold front makes its way through the Mid-South later tonight. -JPR Expect showers to develop across portions of the Mid-South today before a cold front reaches the area this evening.
448 AM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024 - Well below normal temperatures forecast for today (highs mid 20s to lower 30s, with normal highs in the low to mid 40s).
700 AM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024 (Friday through Saturday) Slow moving upper trough directly ovhd attm and will continue to slowly pivot eastward into the Lower Miss Valley by this evening. That should help to hold temps up a bit but with the NBM numbers being on the warmer side of guidance, did not make much in the way of temp changes overnight. What cloud cover is left on Saturday should break during the day as sfc ridging moves ovhd. Again stayed with NBM MOS temperature wise which is on the warmer side of guidance for daytime highs on Saturday.
945 AM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024 - Well below normal temperatures forecast for today (highs mid 20s to lower 30s, with normal highs in the low to mid 40s).
625 AM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024 (Today through Saturday) Closed 500 mb low pressure currently over east Texas will gradually shift into the Atlantic Seaboard during the period, leaving the BRO CWFA in a nearly zonal mid-level flow.
654 AM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024 Expect showers to develop across portions of the Mid-South today before a cold front reaches the area this evening.
Light to moderate showery precip (ISOLD lightning) with approach of a low pressure system (messy wx pattern).
- A strong cold front moves through the area today with gusty north winds and colder temperatures behind it. - Sub-freezing temperatures for overnight lows tonight/ Saturday morning.
(Today and tonight) Weak ridging will be in place following the low pressure system that has now moved off to the east. This will result in a lack of rain chances and slightly warmer conditions across the region for this afternoon.
633 AM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024 - Well below normal temperatures forecast for today (highs mid 20s to lower 30s, with normal highs in the low to mid 40s).
Ongoing showers will eventually taper as a cold front moves through the region later tonight.
A surface/upper trough is situated to our west, so look for deeper moisture to spread into Middle Tennessee during the next several hours. Drier, cooler air will work its way into the area tomorrow.
In other words, a fairly sharp gradient in the highest snowfall amounts is possible and its location is not yet clear. Some drizzle/freezing drizzle is also occurring on the southern side of the FGEN band and better DGZ, where we lost the mid-level moisture. Most other spots will see lows in the single digits and teens, with slightly warmer readings near Lake Michigan. dry conditions are expected as weak high pressure slides into the western Great Lakes.
With clouds continuing to increase from south to north, temperatures at 10 AM were in the low/mid 60,with SE winds of 5-10 mph. This low as it develops and moves to the east, will bring more showers to the area, mainly this afternoon and especially tonight. Stayed with a warmer north/cooler south trend concerning high temperatures, with mid 60s south and mid/upper 60s north.
452 PM EDT Fri Mar 22 2024 - A low pressure system passing to our south and a disturbance approaching from the northwest will bring rain tonight.