Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
High pressure over the CWA with nearly clear skies. Water vapour loop had upper trough over the upper Midwest sliding east as western CONUS upper ridge pokes into the Rockies. Upper ridge will be the main weather make this week. Today, residual boundary layer moisture on back side of upper trough will support cumulus field over western SD by afternoon.
853 PM PDT Sun Jul 7 2024 Slightly cooler west of the mountains Monday, with heat continuing in the deserts.
204 AM EDT Mon Jul 8 2024 Dry weather will continue into Monday before active weather returns midweek, associated with a passing trough and the remnants of Beryl.
107 AM MDT Mon Jul 8 2024 Satellite imagery shows a strong west coast ridge and troffing over the upper Mississippi valley. Flow aloft remains out of the NW, but we are seeing rising heights as the ridge to our west is becoming the dominant feature for our weather over the short term period and beyond.
Will have to watch closely to see if the band over the lower Atchafalaya Basin and offshore can hold together as further training will bring about a flash flood risk. These levels should increase significantly by daybreak, especially for Sabine Pass as the center of Beryl reaches the coast and the high tide cycle begins.
Water vapor imagery shows numerous weak disturbances littering the northern and central Plains, Upper Midwest, and into southern Canada, within a broad long wave trough.
415 AM EDT Mon Jul 8 2024 High pressure will persist across the area today offering dry weather and warmer temperatures.
The state remains sandwiched between low pressure to the east, and Tropical Storm Beryl to the west, and will remain so through the short term period.
Otherwise, the upper trof axis crosses the state today with partial sunshine for much of the day. Isolated showers are expected by the afternoon across the northern half of the state with weak lift and cool mid level temperatures near the trof axis.
153 AM EDT Mon Jul 8 2024 High pressure will persist through Monday.
103 AM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024 An upper level ridge will remain over the western CONUS through Monday. Trailing portion of a cold front (associated with an upper trough gradually shifting east across the northern and central Plains) will push south across our area late tonight into the day Monday. Temperatures will be a little cooler in our southern counties, but most noticeably cooler in the Big Country. Highs on Monday are expected to range from the mid to upper 80s in the Big Country, to the lower/mid 90s in the Northern Edwards Plateau.
411 AM EDT Mon Jul 8 2024 High pressure builds in from the west today.
Discussion: In the upper levels, a trough remains over the Great Plains and Midwest. A weak ridge is over the Southeast and a closed low is off the coast of the Carolinas. Highs will be in the lower to mid 90s this afternoon in the Tennessee Valley.
Throughout today after the early morning rain exits and falls apart we will be left with a residual outflow boundary that various CAM models has setting up roughly along the highway 50 corridor. Skies should also clear through the morning and early afternoon to help warm up the lower atmosphere.
1247 AM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024 Through Tonight: A lifting warm frontal boundary has allowed for more of the forecast area to experience July heat and humidity this afternoon.
Otherwise, a cold front will move through the area this morning. Otherwise, temperatures should be cooler compared to yesterday. Highs will range from the mid 80s in the Big Country to the lower to mid 90s across the western Concho Valley and northern Edwards Plateau.
625 AM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024 (Today thru Tuesday morning) A band of scattered storms, stretching from near Tulsa and extending NE roughly along I-44, is occurring along a weak H85 front in advance of an approaching upper trough. The system is being drawn north by the aforementioned upper trough, which it will eventually merge with as the system recurves to the northeast over the ArkLaTex and then thru central AR tonight into Tuesday. Wind gusts will pick up as well tonight into Tuesday morning with the closest approach of the low pressure, especially in the terrain of the Ouachitas, where gusts to near advisory strength are possible.
Otherwise, the upper trof axis crosses the state today with partial sunshine for much of the day. Isolated showers are expected by the afternoon across the northern half of the state with weak lift and cool mid level temperatures near the trof axis. Tuesday appears to be a similar to today with slightly warmer temperatures and the threat of a few showers in the north.
Slightly cooler in the northern coastal bend due to lingering clouds from Beryl through the morning.
An area of high pressure will continue to bring hot temperatures (averaging 5-15 degrees above normal) for the next few days. The Excessive Heat Warning remains in effect for the lower elevations of Yavapai County and areas below 4000 feet in the Grand Canyon and Marble/Glen Canyons.
In fact if the rain moves in earlier then the highs have a potential to bust based on coverage.
In its wake, a cold front/frontal boundary will push southward to just across the Natchez Trace corridor as drier cooler air settles into the region.
With an exiting trough to the east and a building ridge to the west, the CWA will enter into a period of quiet weather, with warming and drying conditions expected. The upper-level trough axis will slowly push into the center of the country today, keeping some lingering cooler 700 mb air across the CWA.
1009 AM EDT Mon Jul 8 2024 High pressure will persist across the area today offering dry weather and warmer temperatures.
Outflow winds remain but are diminishing and should not be confused with a cold front that we are expecting later today. Dry air behind the front will help temps drop into the low 70s to upper 60s yielding a nice morning Tuesday.
An upper level trough will continue to pass overhead throughout the day today and it will spark thunderstorms over the central and southern mountains, as well as the San Luis Valley this afternoon.
Easterly-southeasterly flow develops again on Tuesday as weak ridging is re-established over SE CONUS and the now weakening upper level low drifts towards the peninsula. Oppressive heat will once again be a concern this afternoon, especially if convective coverage fails to materialize as the high-res models suggest. Current guidance shows today's high temperatures reaching the low-mid 90s across much of the region, with peak heat indices in the 105-110 degree range. Overnight temperatures will remain warm, providing little relief from the heat, with lows in the mid 70s over the interior and in the low 80s along the immediate coastlines.
ENC remains in somewhat of a col with upper ridging centered across FL/GA and well off the Mid-Atlantic coast while a quasi stationary upper low is centered off the Southeast Coast and an upper trough is digging across the Mid West and Great Lakes. Low level thicknesses have changed little from yesterday and expect highs inland in the lower 90s and mid to upper 80s along the coast. Temps will remain near climo, slightly cooler late week. Seabreeze, inland troughing, and waves rotating through the upper trough to the WNW will keep mostly diurnally driven showers and storms in the forecast through the period.
The strong ridge over the western CONUS responsible for these hot temperatures will remain generally stationary through Tuesday, then will begin to shift east before becoming centered over Utah/Colorado this weekend.
Pattern Synopsis: Troughing currently centered over southern Canada and the upper Midwest will slide east today, spreading height falls over the Great Lakes into tonight. Forcing generated by said troughing aloft will support relatively weak surface pressure falls across the region as a diffuse front works across the area late this afternoon into tonight. Weak troughing across the central states including the Great Lakes will steer the remains of the tropical system north northeastward over the next few days.
1037 AM EDT Mon Jul 8 2024 High pressure builds in from the west today.
638 AM EDT Mon Jul 8 2024 High pressure builds in from the west today.
618 AM EDT Mon Jul 8 2024 High pressure will persist across the area today offering dry weather and warmer temperatures.
We are going through a transition day as the ridge has started to shift south. By tomorrow the ridge will be to our south which will bring our winds southwesterly for the rest of our week. This shift in winds will also help to keep us a few degrees cooler which should keep us away from heat advisory criteria.
General west to southwest flow aloft Tuesday afternoon with the lower than normal heights flattening out as a jet streak moves through N MI into Canada. Pattern Forecast: By Tuesday evening, broad troughing anticipated across the nation's midsection sandwiched between weak ridging off the East Coast and more amplified ridging/heat dome out west.
Pattern change forecast today, with subtropical ridge axis south of the area producing a relatively light SW low level flow across the region. A ridge aloft across the area, sitting between a cut off low over the west Atlantic and Hurricane Beryl lifting N/NE over east Texas will lead to hot conditions today.
Temperatures will remain somewhat on the cooler side, with highs ranging from the lower to upper 80s across the region.
The Florida Keys remain under the influence of an upper level ridge that is bounded on either side by a cut off upper level low. The ridge will essentially pinwheel these features over the coming days. However, the low levels will remain dry (more on that below). The strength of the ridge, particularly on the western periphery will wax and wane at times leading to winds tending to peak overnight and lull in the afternoons.
(Tonight through Tuesday night) Key Messages: -Life threatening beach conditions linger with dangerous rip currents/coastal flooding -A Heat Advisory is in effect today for Heat Index Values 110-114 The short term period will be relatively quiet with a trough draped across the Central US and the remnants of Beryl moving across SE TX this afternoon moving quickly off to the northeast. Afternoon temperatures today and tomorrow are a bit warmer behind Beryl with clearer skies allowing for more surface heating.
Tonight, Beryl will move northeast across the Mississippi River Valley, with southwest winds becoming prevailing in the low and mid levels over Alabama. Highs Tuesday are expected to be in the low to mid 90s with heat indices in the lower 100s and a few places could reach 105.
The ridge axis will shift a touch eastward for Tuesday leading to a range in 700-mb temperatures from +10C in the northeast to +15C in the southwest. The cap will be weaker tomorrow, which may allow for a few isolated showers and storms to develop over the higher terrain.
The remnants of Beryl will become absorbed by a longwave trough over the central United States while will pinch the Atlantic high pressure eastward. Today may be the warmer of the two days with heat index values dipping for Tuesday. Overnight lows will struggle to fall below 80 in many areas and the urban heat islands may not fall below the lower 80s tonight which provides little relief from the heat illness risk.
High temperatures tomorrow will be about 10 degrees warmer compared to today with highs ranging from the mid 80s to lower 90s.
The upper-level trough will continue marching east aloft today, allowing for some isolated-scattered thunderstorms to form across our southeast mountains and parts of the San Luis Valley this afternoon. For Tuesday, temperatures will begin to warm, with high temperatures climbing into the high-80s to low-90s across the plains. A few storms could drift onto the plains later in the evening as the retreating trough axis moves further east, but at this time chances are somewhat low.
Beryl is a relatively compact storm, and the brunt of precip shield will remain near and even slightly to the left of the center which will keep the highest rainfall totals to our west. In its wake, a cold front/frontal boundary will push southward to just across the Natchez Trace corridor as drier cooler air settles into the region.
Upper level ridge continues to slowly move inland over the western US.
(This evening through Tuesday) Upper level water vapor satellite imagery shows a positively tilted trough stretching from Colorado's Front Range to southern Minnesota, and a high pressure system persisting over California. The trough is expected to shift eastward through the short term period. Radiational cooling due to the clear skies and light winds should yield slightly cooler than normal low temperatures. Given the moisture from this morning's rains and the relatively cooler lows, there is a potential for patchy fog around sunrise, though confidence remains low. Tuesday's highs return to near average, with temperatures 5-10 degrees warmer than this afternoon and winds remaining light.
Tuesday should be cooler with highs in the upper 80's to lower 90's owing to the increased convection and cloud cover. Overnight lows once again are expected to be in the lower to middle 70's inland and upper 70's to lower 80's nearer the coast.
Pockets of sun are going to continue to allow air temperatures climb into the low to mid 90s this afternoon, but we are seeing some light rain showers on radar this morning.
Added isolated shower and thunderstorms to southern sections today, in association with the cold front. Otherwise, a cold front will move through the area this morning. Otherwise, temperatures should be cooler compared to yesterday. Highs will range from the mid 80s in the Big Country to the lower to mid 90s across the western Concho Valley and northern Edwards Plateau.
An associated boundary can also be seen on satellite extended southward into the Low Country. The highest chances for activity is in the PeeDee region, closest to the circulation.
340 PM EDT Mon Jul 8 2024 A weak trough will develop across the area.
Plentiful cloud cover will help to keep temperatures a degree or two cooler than previous days, with highs generally reaching into the low 90s. Evening: Showers and thunderstorms will be on-going across the coastal counties with the highest coverage likely being across southeast Georgia.
A continued weak MSLP gradient continues Tuesday with a very weak lee trough across Colorado.
Tuesday, not much change, though the humidity will be slightly higher and with temperatures reaching the lower to mid 90s east of the mountains, a few areas could see close to 105 degrees, so am planning on heat advisory over portions of the VA/NC piedmont for Tue afternoon. Storms will be widely scattered once again with best coverage over the southern Blue Ridge and adjacent areas into the NC foothills.
A trough situated over western KS is responsible for the slight east motion. The trough is also acting to help pull the moisture to the north, and at 2 pm, a rainband was as far north as the AR/MO border. However, the progressive nature of the trough should prevent most of the state from seeing any rainfall. Northwest flow will keep the area with seasonal temperatures for the first half of the week, but a building ridge in the western US will lead to above average temperatures towards the weekend.
248 PM MDT Mon Jul 8 2024 - Becoming hot - Limited precipitation chances - Elevated fire weather conditions develop This afternoon the upper trough is located to the east of the forecast area. With the ridge over the western CONUS, northwest flow aloft continues over the forecast area.
Dry, and slightly cooler (but still hot) temperatures are otherwise expected today. An area of high pressure will continue to bring hot temperatures (averaging 5-15 degrees above normal) for the next few days. The Excessive Heat Warning remains in effect for the lower elevations of Yavapai County and areas below 4000 feet in the Grand Canyon and Marble/Glen Canyons.
The wake trough will begin to move east and Beryl moves NE and this will help bring some heavy rainfall to many areas starting Tuesday.
(Tonight) The story of warmer than average temperatures continues, with a Heat Advisory in effect for all of northern Alabama until 7 pm. With some influence from a ridge to the east and surface moisture in place, this should keep temperatures predominantly in the mid-70s.
It will be continued hot with highs inland mostly in the low 90s. Temps will remain near climo, slightly cooler late week. Seabreeze, inland troughing, and waves rotating through the upper trough to the WNW will keep mostly diurnally driven showers and storms in the forecast through the period.
A strong ridge of high pressure will continue to build over the Northern Rockies through mid week.
With very little in the way of forcing mechanisms present, convective development will likely favor the higher terrain areas of the mountains and Plateau.
112 PM EDT Mon Jul 8 2024 High pressure builds in from the west today.
Plentiful cloud cover will keep temperatures in the low 80s, with upper 80s to low 90s in areas with sunshine. Tonight: Showers and thunderstorms will likely persist across the coastal counties with the highest coverage being across southeast Georgia.
149 PM EDT Mon Jul 8 2024 High pressure will persist across the area today offering dry weather and warmer temperatures.
Tonight: Showers and thunderstorms will likely persist across the coastal counties with the highest coverage being across southeast Georgia.
High pressure has finally started to weaken and drift eastward today. Coastal sites today have hovered in the low 60s. General high pressure with encourage continued above normal temperatures and smoke accumulation in valleys near the Shelly fire. In the short term, heat will further ease through Tuesday as high pressure moves east and onshore flow increases and brings more marine influence.
933 PM EDT Mon Jul 8 2024 A weak trough will develop across the area.
Low temperatures overnight into Tuesday morning are forecast to drop into the low to mid 70s, providing little relief from the heat experienced Monday afternoon.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are along it, but their intensity is weak given the low shear and low instability environment.
Scattered thunderstorms will continue into this evening ahead of the trough over the Plains in an environment where the MLCAPES are between 1000-2000 J/kg with deep layer shear of 30-35 knots. The heavy rain will end over the eastern CWA on Tuesday evening as the Beryl races off to the east and a upper low lifts northeast into the eastern Great Lakes late tomorrow night.
715 PM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024 (Tonight through Tuesday night) Key Messages: -Life threatening beach conditions linger with dangerous rip currents/coastal flooding -A Heat Advisory is in effect today for Heat Index Values 110-114 The short term period will be relatively quiet with a trough draped across the Central US and the remnants of Beryl moving across SE TX this afternoon moving quickly off to the northeast. Afternoon temperatures today and tomorrow are a bit warmer behind Beryl with clearer skies allowing for more surface heating.
624 PM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024 (This evening through Tuesday) Upper level water vapor satellite imagery shows a positively tilted trough stretching from Colorado's Front Range to southern Minnesota, and a high pressure system persisting over California. The trough is expected to shift eastward through the short term period. Radiational cooling due to the clear skies and light winds should yield slightly cooler than normal low temperatures. Given the moisture from this morning's rains and the relatively cooler lows, there is a potential for patchy fog around sunrise, though confidence remains low. Tuesday's highs return to near average, with temperatures 5-10 degrees warmer than this afternoon and winds remaining light.
Consensus in model guidance kicks majority of the rain, especially the heavier rain, out of the forecast area by early afternoon as a mid-level trough carries the remnants of Beryl northeastward and out of the forecast area. Quieter and much more benign weather is anticipated after Tuesday as the trough axis shifts east and mid/upper-level ridging tries to penetrate over much of OK.
627 PM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024 (Tonight) The story of warmer than average temperatures continues, with a Heat Advisory in effect for all of northern Alabama until 7 pm. With some influence from a ridge to the east and surface moisture in place, this should keep temperatures predominantly in the mid-70s.
Currently - Surface through lower tropospheric Atlantic ridging stretches westward across South Florida. Short Term Update - Robust lower tropospheric ridging will remain across South Florida through the overnight period. Dry air and some inhibition will hold on through the lower levels. Atlantic ridging stretching westward across South Florida will maintain gentle east to southeasterly breezes on Keys waters through the overnight period.
/Issued 322 PM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024/ /Tuesday Night through Monday/ The remnants of Beryl will be well removed to the northeast by Tuesday night with a broad trough axis lingering across the Mississippi River Valley northeast into the Great Lakes. Stronger ridging will remain in place across the western CONUS through the latter part of the week leaving North Texas beneath a weakness in the height field.
452 PM MDT Mon Jul 8 2024 - Becoming hot - Limited precipitation chances - Elevated fire weather conditions develop This afternoon the upper trough is located to the east of the forecast area. With the ridge over the western CONUS, northwest flow aloft continues over the forecast area.
A trough situated over western KS is responsible for the slight east motion. The trough is also acting to help pull the moisture to the north, and at 2 pm, a rain band was as far north as the AR/MO border. However, the progressive nature of the trough should prevent most of the state from seeing any rainfall. Northwest flow will keep the area with seasonal temperatures for the first half of the week, but a building ridge in the western US will lead to above average temperatures towards the weekend.
Scattered thunderstorms will continue into this evening ahead of the trough over the Plains in an environment where the MLCAPES are between 1000-2000 J/kg with deep layer shear of 30-35 knots. The heavy rain will end over the eastern CWA on Tuesday evening as Beryl races off to the east and an upper low lifts northeast into the eastern Great Lakes late tomorrow night.
However, a weakening upper low over the Southeast Atlantic will retrograde southwest toward the FL/GA coast tonight.
Upper level ridging remains in place across the southeastern US helping to maintain a warm and moisture rich environment across the FA.
730 PM EDT Mon Jul 8 2024 A weak trough will develop across the area.
However, a weakening upper low over the Southeast Atlantic will retrograde southwest toward the FL/GA coast tonight. Mid level ridge will extend across the region Tuesday and Wednesday, in between a trough to the west and a low over the Atlantic that will likely translate towards the Florida coast. At the surface, a trough of low pressure inland will become more prominent over the area as a cold front approaches the region from the west. High temperatures forecast in the low 90s each day with elevated dew points will result in heat indices peaking in the 105-108F range.
A continental airmass building in the wake of Beryl will support northwest winds up to 10 mph today limiting afternoon high temperatures to the low to mid 80s. Dry conditions to persist through the overnight hours with lows in the mid to upper 70s and highs on Wednesday in the lower 90s. /05/ (Wednesday Night through Tuesday) A broad upper-trough across the central CONUS will generate enough instability and mixing to maintain seasonably normal temperatures across the region through the early part of the weekend. Temperatures to range from lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s with highs in the low to mid 90s each day. However, the upper-trough, combined with a weak surface boundary across the northern gulf coast, will allow for scattered afternoon convection mainly along and south of I-20 each afternoon.