Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
High pressure will bring hotter temperatures by mid week, with above normal temperatures expected through the remainder of the week. A strong upper ridge currently extends from southwestern Colorado through much of Arizona and down toward the eastern Pacific. This upper ridge has dramatically increased atmospheric stability in our region by increasing midlevel temperatures, and thereby increasing subsidence. The upper ridge continues to strengthen over the Great Basin the next couple of days, resulting in a strong warming trend. Modestly cooler temperatures should arrive toward the weekend. Dry weather will prevail the next few days as this strong upper ridge builds over the Great Basin. The ridge starts to weaken slightly over the weekend, which may invite some isolated storms to form mainly over the mountains.
255 PM EDT Tue Sep 3 2024 A large area of high pressure was centered over southern Ontario.
1242 PM CDT Tue Sep 3 2024 (Today and tonight) An upper level trough remains in place from northern Chihuahua to western Oklahoma. Water vapor imagery is showing a circulation on the southern end of the trough south of El Paso that will lift northeastward as the trough as a whole moves slowly eastward and begins to shear apart. Have adjusted forecast high temperatures downward from the blend inits more in line with the cooler MOS numbers. The weakening trough will still be present tonight but confidence in prolonged precipitation this far north is looking less likely with PoPs limited to the southeastern third but decreasing to the slight chance to chance category.
117 PM MDT Tue Sep 3 2024 Upper trof continues to evolve slowly and as of 1830z it is located over central ID and moving to the SE. As positively tilted trof moves eastward, we should see a region of dry slotting push through our SW this evening. Wednesday, the filling trof will drop thru WY and flow will shift to the NW.
138 PM EDT Tue Sep 3 2024 A large area of high pressure centered over the western Great Lakes will move east today, reaching New England by Wednesday, and providing dry and cooler weather for much of the Mid Atlantic region. The high will remained wedged down the east slopes of the Appalachians as a cold front approaches the area at the end of the week.
103 PM EDT Tue Sep 3 2024 Dry and mild conditions will continue through midweek before warmer air builds back in late week.
1251 PM EDT Tue Sep 3 2024 High pressure will build across Pennsylvania today. The high will pass off of the New England coast late in the week with lingering ridging extending westward into Pennsylvania.
122 PM EDT Tue Sep 3 2024 A warming trend is expected this week with dry conditions under high pressure. Below average temperatures and precipitation chances return this weekend with a cut-off low. Mostly clear skies are expected for the period save some high cirrus overnight, mostly south of I-70 in an inverted trough.
A few readings in the lower triple digits are possible southwest. Low amplitude ridging will move across the state this afternoon, leading to more above average temperatures. The main bulk of regional showers and storms will form this afternoon over the higher terrain across portions of southern Montana and northern Wyoming. The cold front will cross the state tonight and lead to cooler temperatures on Wednesday. The parent trough will cross the state on Wednesday and there should be enough forcing to spark some isolated showers through the day, even with the split flow. The trough will move off to the east Wednesday evening, placing western and central North Dakota under cyclonic flow aloft.
218 PM EDT Tue Sep 3 2024 Dry and mild conditions will continue through midweek before warmer air builds back in late week.
111 PM EDT Tue Sep 3 2024 (Today and tonight) Late tonight lows have dropped lower than previous days, now in the mid 50s northeast, to the 60s and lower 70s extreme south as we remain in a northerly flow pattern with drier air pushing in behind a cold front that sinked south to the central part of the gulf coast states by early this morning. Upper heights are rising again today enough to produce afternoon highs in the lower to mid 80s in the north and central to some mid to possibly even upper 80s southern valley, which will be near seasonal normals, and more comfortable with the lower dewpoints.
Ridging building in from the northeast is promoting gentle to moderate southeast breezes along our marine observation platforms.
1227 PM CDT Tue Sep 3 2024 - Dry conditions continue through at least Wednesday night as high pressure remains in place.
1244 PM EDT Tue Sep 3 2024 A strong high pressure system settles in over the region through the middle of the week. Sunny skies are expected today with high pressure in control. There will be low humidity, with dew points in the low 50s during the afternoon and light southeast winds around 5 mph or less.
- Temperatures remain near to a few degrees warmer than normal throughout the week, even while trending slightly cooler in some areas. This system is showing up nicely in water vapor imagery this afternoon near the WA/ID border and visible satellite is also showing some other possible impacts that may arive as this low moves through. Nocturnal convection should remain active as the low drops into SW Idaho pushing the jet core and main moisture plume into our NW CWA. There looks to be an early round of convection across the north followed by some clearing then another round of stronger storms in the afternoon as moderate shear/instability and a drooping cold front across WY border providing some focus.
- A few storms tomorrow afternoon, with max temps a degree or two warmer than today.
The return flow pressure gradient in place over the region will hang on tonight as a pre-frontal trof/weak cold front pushes into the Missouri River valley by 12Z Wednesday. There will also be a stronger cold front pushing down out of Canada on Wednesday that will eventually catch up to/overtake this pre-frontal surface feature by Wednesday evening. Behind the north to south moving cold front, moderately strong low level CAA/dry air advection will ensue for Wednesday night. The pre-frontal trof may not be strong enough to force convective initiation over the central/eastern two-thirds of the CWA during peak heating. The pre- frontal trof on Wednesday is not expected to make much of dent in temperatures, even though low level thermal progs do show 925hpa/850hpa temperatures decreasing a couple of degrees.
458 PM EDT Tue Sep 3 2024 A large area of high pressure was centered over southern Ontario.
Ridging continues to stay just to our north over the course of the work week.
The center of the low pressure system over our region continues to circulate over central Idaho and west central Montana this afternoon. Satellite imagery shows a very large swath of regional wildfire smoke, comprised of smoke from Oregon, Idaho, and Montana fires, being wrapped up into the center of the low.
Wednesday, quiet and sunny conditions return as the low pressure system to the north moves east and an upper ridge strengthens over the western U.
218 PM EDT Tue Sep 3 2024 A large area of high pressure was centered over southern Ontario.
(This evening through Wednesday) Midlevel troughing and an associated weak circulation remains centered over the Permian Basin into the Big County early this afternoon, with a broad zone of modest lift still visible on water vapor channel imagery. This combined with easterly flow throughout the lower atmosphere will result in the continuation of scattered to numerous showers and perhaps a few embedded storms over southern portions of the Rolling Plains through late this evening. For now have sided with the cooler end of guidance for highs over the South Plains and Rolling Plains where highs should remain in the upper 70s to near 80, with slightly warmer highs in the low 80s expected across the far southern TX Panhandle.
744 PM EDT Tue Sep 3 2024 A warming trend is expected this week with dry conditions under high pressure. Below average temperatures and precipitation chances return this weekend with a cut-off low.
(Today and tonight) Upper level trough exiting the region today as high pressure builds behind.
629 AM EDT Sat May 24 2025 High pressure provides warm and dry conditions to begin the Memorial Day weekend. It's a chilly start to the day with temperatures at daybreak ranging from the lower 50s to lower 60s. High pressure will produce mostly sunny skies and dry conditions today. The clouds and rain limit cooling at night with temperatures at daybreak Sunday in the lower to mid 60s. This will lift a warm front northward. With the boundary and rain keeping the low level lapse rates poor, convection may be elevated and hinder downburst winds.
A closed upper low is currently over New England, placing a trough over most over the eastern sea board. Upper ridging is featured to the west over the Rockies. The lower Ohio Valley is located between these features in northwesterly flow. Weak waves and vort lobes along the ridging will move southwest of the region today. High pressure at the surface will keep winds light and variable today.
331 AM MDT Sat May 24 2025 KEY MESSAGES: - High pressure through the weekend will bring mostly fair weather - Increased instability on Memorial Day will result in chances for afternoon/evening thunderstorms This weekend high pressure will begin to build over the Northern Rockies as a Pacific low digs south.
UPDATE Temperatures cooled off in our east under ideal radiational conditions with a few colder spots near freezing in our far east. Large scale pattern across the northern Plains/upper Midwest continues to be dominated by blocking, with an Omega block through this weekend evolving into a Rex block type pattern mid week. Better chances arrive midweek as ensemble clusters are converging towards a closed upper low becoming centered near our CWA Tuesay-Wedesday. Even the stronger ensemble members are broad enough with the mid/upper low evolution over our area, minimizing this conditional risk at this time. CU increases in coverage during peak heating (5-7 kft agl) with the highest coverage in northwest MN, then clearing with stabilizing conditions this evening.
While we still have some troughing over the eastern half of Idaho early today, high pressure is going to do its best to build back in over the area. Temperatures overnight into Sunday morning will only drop into the low and mid 40s, setting us up to warm nicely on Sunday afternoon. Highs will reach the low 80s in the eastern Magic Valley with mid to upper 70s throughout the Snake River Plain.
Warmer low temperatures expected tonight, with readings in the upper 60s and low 70s inland and coastal readings in the mid 70s.
647 AM CDT Sat May 24 2025 - Slightly warmer temperatures expected tonight into Sunday morning, with more localized areas of frost.
725 AM EDT Sat May 24 2025 A low pressure system is currently located in New Brunswick and is expected to gradually weaken and move east across the Maritimes through the weekend.
Temperatures cooled off in our east under ideal radiational conditions with a few colder spots near freezing in our far east. Large scale pattern across the northern Plains/upper Midwest continues to be dominated by blocking, with an Omega block through this weekend evolving into a Rex block type pattern mid week. Better chances arrive midweek as ensemble clusters are converging towards a closed upper low becoming centered near our CWA Tuesay-Wedesday. Even the stronger ensemble members are broad enough with the mid/upper low evolution over our area, minimizing this conditional risk at this time. CU increases in coverage during peak heating (5-7 kft agl) with the highest coverage in northwest MN, then clearing with stabilizing conditions this evening.
550 AM CDT Sat May 24 2025 - Mainly dry and cooler than normal through Memorial Day.
An upper-level trough looks to move over ND and curve around SD into WY/UT Sunday evening.
Discussion: Northwest upper flow will transition to more zonal flow today as an upper low over the eastern Great Lakes and New England areas shifts further northeast.
Quasi-stationary boundary has pushed south of all locations along the Altamaha save Darien as of sunrise this morning as high pressure builds in from the north and west. This high will keep light winds and dry conditions in place to start the holiday weekend. Pre-dawn QPF will be limited across the Low Country, with mainly dry conditions prevailing through daybreak south of a line from Beaufort to Statesboro.
Pre-dawn QPF will be limited across the Low Country, with mainly dry conditions prevailing through daybreak south of a line from Beaufort to Statesboro.
1018 AM EDT Sat May 24 2025 Cool and dry high pressure will build from central Canada over the Mid Atlantic region into Sunday.
- Sunday will be mostly dry and warmer with some peaks of sunshine.
That said, we do still have some troughing aloft which could bring a very small chance for an isolated shower towards Highway 127 this afternoon or Sunday afternoon. - Rain Chances Increase Mid Week An upper low is expected to traverse the area mid week which is expected to increase our rain chances.
1140 AM EDT Sat May 24 2025 A low pressure system is currently located in New Brunswick and is expected to gradually weaken and move east across the Maritimes through the weekend.
High pressure at the surface coupled with ridging aloft will keep temperatures above average and some heat indices in the triple digits.
High temperatures will be a few degrees cooler in large part due to cloud cover during the afternoon hours.
931 AM PDT Sat May 24 2025 Cooler conditions today. A trough passing through central California will enhance the onshore pressure gradient and lower heights aloft this weekend. In addition to cooler conditions and a deeper marine layer, an increase in westerly winds is expected on the desert mountain slopes and into the deserts.
1238 PM CDT Sat May 24 2025 (Today through Sunday) - Heat Advisory in Effect Today from 1 PM - 7 PM - Moderate to Extreme Risk of Heat-Related Impacts (level 2/4 out of 4)today and Sunday High pressure will be in control of the forecast for this weekend leading to clearing skies and increasing temperatures.
In fact, it's still packing quite a punch as severe thunderstorm warnings remain active while it begins to advance just to our east into the Delta region of the Lower MS Valley. Meanwhile, renewed MCS development is expected to our N/NW overnight, but a slight north to northeastward expansion of the upper-level ridge axis into our region should help to deflect the majority of convection to our north. Moving ahead to Sunday and Sunday night, the upper-level ridge will begin to flatten out across our region and shift farther east while the sfc boundary remains quasi-stationary near to just north of our region.
500 mb high pressure will continue to be the dominant feature over the BRO CWFA throughout the period. Finally, elevated seas along the Lower Texas Coast will create a Moderate Risk of rip currents at the local beaches through the weekend.
Warm and dry conditions will persist through Sunday as an upper-level ridge continues to strengthen ahead of an approaching trough and cold front. By late Sunday, increasing instability ahead of the front will support the potential for stronger thunderstorms, with the highest chances (around 30%) focused across Harney and Baker Counties.
226 PM MDT Sat May 24 2025 - A few severe thunderstorms possible over the Palmer Ridge through 8 PM this evening.
- Memorial Day Forecast: Mostly sunny with a chance of showers/thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening for most locations; high temps in the lower 60s to mid 70s (coolest along MT/DK border).
203 PM EDT Sat May 24 2025 * Cooler than average holiday weekend with a brisk breeze and spotty showers giving way to more sunshine and marginally warmer temperatures by Memorial Day.
An upper level trough over the Great Basin on Sunday may spread additional showers and thunderstorms into western South Dakota.
230 PM EDT Sat May 24 2025 High pressure will settle over the Alleghenies tonight, then a warm front approaches from the southwest Sunday. With high pressure moving over the Alleghenies tonight, favorable conditions for radiational cooling should develop. Low Td's in the low 30s show the "bottom ceiling" across the Alleghenies, so have issued a Frost Advisory for this area overnight where lows in the mid 30s are expected. An area of transient high pressure will push eastward across the region Sunday.
131 PM PDT Sat May 24 2025 Cooler conditions today. A trough passing through central California will enhance the onshore pressure gradient and lower heights aloft this weekend. In addition to cooler conditions and a deeper marine layer, an increase in westerly winds is expected on the desert mountain slopes and into the deserts.
149 PM EDT Sat May 24 2025 Low pressure moving to the Maritimes will bring a few showers at times and cool temperatures today.
The mid-level ridge axis is situated over the Rockies placing much of the Central Plains in northwest flow.
Thanks to extensive cloud cover and NE winds of 10-15mph, high temperatures will be well below normal for this time of year in the lower to middle 60s.
(Tonight through Sunday night) Key Messages: - Moderate to Extreme Risk of Heat-Related Impacts (level 2/4 out of 4) High pressure is expected to continue to dominate the forecast through Sunday afternoon. The increased subsidence will lead to warmer temperatures and slightly lower moisture (PWAT values near 1.
1244 PM CDT Sat May 24 2025 - Slightly warmer temperatures expected tonight into Sunday morning, with more localized areas of frost.
334 PM CDT Sat May 24 2025 - Strong to severe storms possible this afternoon and overnight - Excessive rainfall expected tonight and Sunday night - On and off showers and storms remain possible through the late work week Currently at 11:30am, there is a trough over the Northern Rockies with the base of the trough over southern California. Going into Sunday, the upper ridge will continue to move eastward, and the upper-level trough in southern California is expected to traverse into the Central Great Basin/Desert Southwest, returning southwesterly flow aloft to our area.
1157 AM CDT Sat May 24 2025 - Mainly dry and cooler than normal through Memorial Day.
As ridging prevails through the rest of the weekend breezes will continue to be east to southeast and light to gentle. That observation sets the stage for today across the Keys; it will once again be warmer than normal, muggy, and primed for potential waterspouts somewhere along the island chain. Current conditions show temperatures in the lower 80s along most of the Keys, but some spots in the larger islands are able to radiate down to the lower to mid 70s. Model ensembles show longwave ridging over the Yucatan Peninsula and the southeastern CONUS is forecast to prevail through mid-week.
1230 PM EDT Sat May 24 2025 - A few sprinkles with perhaps a couple isolated showers over The Thumb in store for today and Sunday with gradual warming, into the low 60s.
With such dry conditions in the lower levels ahead of the wave, it is unlikely we see any showers, though we can certainly see some virga around the region.
UPDATE Temperatures cooled off in our east under ideal radiational conditions with a few colder spots near freezing in our far east. Large scale pattern across the northern Plains/upper Midwest continues to be dominated by blocking, with an Omega block through this weekend evolving into a Rex block type pattern mid week. Better chances arrive midweek as ensemble clusters are converging towards a closed upper low becoming centered near our CWA Tuesay-Wedesday. Even the stronger ensemble members are broad enough with the mid/upper low evolution over our area, minimizing this conditional risk at this time.
A stalled warm front extending through eastern OK into AR has provided forcing for showers and storms this morning that just clipped the southern portions of our area. Into the overnight hours an H850 low- level jet (LLJ) intensifies and interacts with the stalled warm front. If the warm front pushed a little more north, better forcing could result in increased chances for severe thunderstorms.
MPD for the central plains early this morning discusses the potential for storms to orient parallel to the low level convergence that could lead to training of storms. As the low level jet weakens this morning, convection is expected to weaken and possibly lead to break this afternoon.
The greatest precipitation coverage is expected this evening and tonight, as deepening low pressure across Colorado further strengthens the easterly low level jet. A lull in precipitation intensity then is expected through the day Sunday, with very light rain or drizzle anticipated as the low level jet wanes. By Sunday night, the low level jet strengthens yet again, leading to increasing precipitation coverage across western Nebraska.
As ridging prevails through the rest of the weekend breezes will continue to be east to southeast and light to gentle. High pressure will build over the northeastern CONUS, allowing breezes to veer southeasterly.
A decaying low pressure system across the Great Basin today will continue to weaken as it moves towards the east.
(This evening through Sunday night) Upper ridging centered from Texas to Nebraska this afternoon, with a trough extending from Montana to near Los Angeles. At the surface, high pressure extended from Lake Michigan to the eastern Gulf. Most areas were seeing temperatures in the mid and upper 80s, but a few locations will top out in the lower 90s.
207 PM EDT Sat May 24 2025 An upper level low pressure system will only slowly exit the area through Sunday, and in time showers will become fewer.
(Tonight through Sunday night) A mid-level ridge conditons to be the dominate influence for the weather of Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley for the short term forecast. Meanwhile, the low temperatures for tonight and tomorrow night are expected to be mostly in the 70s while southern parts of the CWA could be in the low 80s. Finally, elevated seas along the Lower Texas Coast will continue to produce a moderate risk of rip currents at the local beaches through the weekend.
Afternoon high temperatures will be in the low to mid 90s inland, and mid to upper 80s along the coast, today and tomorrow with overnight lows in the mid 70s to near 80 degrees. High pressure building overhead should lead to minimal development of any thunderstorm activity, but cannot totally out-rule an isolated shower or storm this afternoon.
207 PM EDT Sat May 24 2025 * Cooler than average holiday weekend with a brisk breeze and spotty showers giving way to more sunshine and marginally warmer temperatures by Memorial Day.
Lows tonight will stay within seasonal ranges and remain above frost concerns across the low country of the Snake Plain. The upper- level trough along our eastern periphery could kick off a few additional showers and isolated thunderstorms in the Eastern Highlands. Upper level ridge slides slightly east Memorial Day and may allow a bit more moisture into Idaho on some southwesterly flow aloft into the western areas of forecast area.
1133 AM EDT Sat May 24 2025 * Cooler than average holiday weekend with a brisk breeze and spotty showers giving way to more sunshine and marginally warmer temperatures by Memorial Day.
Slightly warmer weather is forecast for the interior today.
356 PM EDT Sat May 24 2025 - A few sprinkles with perhaps a couple isolated showers over The Thumb in store for today and Sunday with gradual warming, into the low 60s.
Very sharp moisture gradient across roughly half of the CWA with dew points in the low 50s north of I-40 and dew points in the 60s south of I-40.
1100 PM EDT Sat May 24 2025 * Cooler than average holiday weekend with a brisk breeze and spotty showers giving way to more sunshine and marginally warmer temperatures by Memorial Day.
Temperatures won't budge at all given the dense cloud cover and rain chances with lows in the low to mid 60s.