Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Heat warning and advisory in effect this afternoon and Upper ridging will be directly over there region today. HRR model does show an isolated thunderstorm this afternoon from Brady and Mason to San Saba and Brownwood, but expect upper ridging to suppress storm activity and did not mention in forecast.
(Today through Thursday) High pressure will continue across north and central GA through the period. A couple of waves of low pressure are expected to develop along this boundary and move east across the northern Gulf of Mexico and emerge out into the western Atlantic. These individual low pressure waves could enhance some convection in the vicinity of the frontal boundary and enhance the seabreeze front across SE GA.
A highly active monsoonal pattern is expected to persist through the period w/ moist southwesterly flow aloft remaining very well established ahead of deep troughing over the Pacific Northwest & stagnant upper-level ridging over the central & southern plains.
Broad 500 mb high pressure centered over New Mexico and the Texas Panhandle will be the dominant weather feature over the BRO CWFA. The mid-level ridge will also produce dry weather, although some very isolated showers cannot be ruled out for the far offshore Gulf of Mexico waters, especially today.
Quiet weather will continue for the short term as central Indiana remains on the back side of an upper level trough with a persistent high over the southern Plains. The upper level NW flow is keeping the below normal temperatures while high pressure at the surface will bring mostly sunny skies. For this morning, the lows were kept below guidance which temperatures have been largely as expected this morning.
The upper- level pattern is characterized by an omega block pattern with closed lows anchored on the east and west coasts and ridging over the central US. Into the end of the week this pattern will gradually drift east allowing the ridge axis to slide over lower Michigan.
935 AM EDT Wed Aug 21 2024 The influence of an upper low will keep the conditions on the cool side through tonight.
A strong subtropical high center will continue to migrate eastward across the Southern Plains while a longwave trough remains anchored over the eastern CONUS. Otherwise, expect temperatures today to be near climatological normal while lows tonight in the 60s will be somewhat cooler than normal.
Temperatures will rise above normal again for the upcoming weekend as an upper-level ridge builds into the Lower Mississippi Valley. Afternoon highs are expected to return into the lower to middle 90s with a slow and gradual increase in humidity.
Looks to be another great day with pleasant afternoon temperatures backed by the low dewpoints. Daily Record Low Minimum Temperatures Date Chattanooga Knoxville Tri-Cities Oak Ridge 08-21 56(1927) 57(1893) 53(2012) 56(2012) Once the sun rises temperatures should quickly warm up and we'll get back to near what we experienced yesterday under the sunny skies.
624 AM CDT Wed Aug 21 2024 (Today through Thursday night) An omega block pattern remains in place with troughs over the Western US and Northeastern US, and a robust ridge over the Southern Plains. With daytime heating and large-scale subsidence from the robust high pressure, temperatures will be able to warm to values well above average. Will lean toward the majority of guidance, and the NBM, and keep the northeastern combined Panhandles one of the "cooler" spots in the CWA, but the humidity brings the heat index to near 100 degrees east of the boundary. GFS brings mid-100 degree temperatures into Beaver County while the other models are more into the low to mid-90s; a 10-15 degree difference.
Building high pressure over West Texas will send temperatures well into the 100s everywhere except in the mountains.
727 AM EDT Wed Aug 21 2024 A low pressure trough lingers nearby today, followed by building high pressure for the remainder of the week.
713 AM EDT Wed Aug 21 2024 A deep upper level low will drift slowly to the south from Quebec Canada. This weather feature will be responsible for stretch of cooler temperatures and fall-like weather through the end of the week. Rain-free weather continues into this weekend with warmer and more humid conditions. An upper low north of PA is progged to make its closest pass to the region later today, resulting in another cool/breezy day with steeper lapse rates bringing a better chance of diurnally- driven showers, especially over the northeast quadrant of the forecast area. Dry air and light winds associated with surface ridging should result in very cool conditions tonight by August standards. The upper low is progged to begin lifting out by Thursday, resulting in fair weather and less diurnal cumulus.
Large area of strong high pressure remains centered from James Bay thru the Great Lakes into the Mid Mississippi Valley and Ohio Valley early this morning. High pressure center will hold over this same large area for the next 24 hours. with highs this afternoon warming into the low to mid 70s. with troughing over the western US, sharp ridging over the central continent, and troughing in the east. Some energy trying to slip through the broader ridge over the Upper Midwest, but struggling to do much aside from mainly high clouds. as ridging remains generally in control of our weather for the time being. One more cool night Thursday night with potential for interior locales to drop into the lower 40s again.
The center of the upper level ridge will move more overhead today adding another 10-15m to the thickness values.
624 AM EDT Wed Aug 21 2024 A low pressure trough lingers nearby today, followed by building high pressure for the remainder of the week.
Daily Record Low Minimum Temperatures Date Chattanooga Knoxville Tri-Cities Oak Ridge 08-21 56(1927) 57(1893) 53(2012) 56(2012) Once the sun rises temperatures should quickly warm up and we'll get back to near what we experienced yesterday under the sunny skies.
617 AM EDT Wed Aug 21 2024 High pressure will provide for dry conditions through the rest of the week. Temperatures will remain well below normal with afternoon highs in the low to mid 70s.
KEY MESSAGES: - Temperatures will remain below average as we remain under the influence of the NE CONUS trough. But, cool northwesterly flow under upper level troughing should keep temperatures below normal again today, though insolation with limited cloud cover should help bring high temperatures up a degree or two from yesterday.
A closed upper low spins over the New England states while broad upper level troughing engulfs the eastern seaboard southward to central Florida. By Thursday morning, upper ridging shifts slightly northward over the Florida Straits and the upper low over New England and associated troughing lifts northward over the Florida panhandle.
(Rest of Today) An unseasonably cool morning was underway as temperatures are recovering into the upper 50s to lower 60s after bottoming out in the lower to middle 50s for many locations. A few cumulus may also develop in our southeast counties along the higher terrain where dew points will be around 60. Expect high temperatures in the lower to middle 80s.
500 mb ridge remains overhead, keeping us under west to southwest flow at the upper levels. This will result in very low afternoon RHs (as low as 10 to 15%) and critical fire weather conditions as gusty southwest winds develop behind the trough. Ensemble guidance in fairly good consensus of deepening western US trough pushing the ridge slightly eastward by the end of this week.
1017 AM EDT Wed Aug 21 2024 High pressure will provide for dry conditions through the rest of the week. Temperatures will remain well below normal with afternoon highs in the low to mid 70s.
705 AM EDT Wed Aug 21 2024 A deep upper level low will drift slowly to the south from Quebec Canada. This weather feature will be responsible for stretch of cooler temperatures and fall-like weather through the end of the week. Rain-free weather continues into this weekend with warmer and more humid conditions. An upper low north of PA is progged to make its closest pass to the region later today, resulting in another cool/breezy day with steeper lapse rates bringing a better chance of diurnally- driven showers, especially over the northeast quadrant of the forecast area. Dry air and light winds associated with surface ridging should result in very cool conditions tonight by August standards. The upper low is progged to begin lifting out by Thursday, resulting in fair weather and less diurnal cumulus.
/05/ (Wednesday through Thursday) Upper-level ridge across central Texas to maintain northerly flow of subsident air across the ArkLaTex through the short-term period ending Thursday. At the surface, broad high pressure centered across the Great Lakes region ridging south across the Mississippi River Valley into the ArkLaTex will allow for much cooler temperatures areawide. Despite cooler temperatures across much of the region, portions of Deep East Texas could still see heat index values lingering up to 105 degrees due to a shallow cool layer in the wake of the cold front along with lingering low-level moisture. Overnight low temperatures tonight are forecast to range from the lower 60s across south Arkansas to around 70 degrees across Deep East Texas.
Influence from an upper low may bring some showers this afternoon.
552 AM EDT Wed Aug 21 2024 Upper level low pressure approaches the region today and then crosses the area on Thursday.
Mid-level ridging will stay over the Central Plains today with a low pressure system over the northeast. Though, the cloud cover from that disturbance will creep into our northeastern counties and keep their high temperatures a bit cooler than the rest of the area. Though due to the clouds, overnight low temperatures will be warmer in the 60s for areas west of Highway 65 and a bit cooler in the low to mid 50s for areas east of Highway 65. Low temperatures are forecast to be between the low 60s and low 50s, with the coolest conditions furthest east.
The ridge will FINALLY shift to the west and provide a hint of reprieve from the ongoing heat on Thursday. As this ridge shifts west, a few weak disturbances will move overhead. not much cooler.
KEY MESSAGES: - Mainly clear skies under high pressure will allow lows to fall well below seasonal normals. ------------------------------------------------------------------- High pressure will set up over the northern Great Lakes through tonight and continue in to the day on Wednesday. A bit of cloud cover is still possible overnight coming off Lake Erie as well as some mid and upper level cloud cover nudging east off the southwest side of the high.
912 AM EDT Wed Aug 21 2024 Upper level low pressure approaches the region today and then crosses the area on Thursday.
628 AM CDT Wed Aug 21 2024 (Today through Thursday) The upper level ridge over New Mexico will continue to dominate our weather through the short term period. At the surface, there is a stationary front draped along the eastern edge of the ridge extending from the Texas Panhandle to Galveston. This boundary has the low level winds out of the southwest and this should continue at least through the morning today. High temperatures will reach 100 everywhere with 105 or higher everywhere except the highest parts of the Hill Country and southern Edwards Plateau. The stationary front to the east may begin to erode the upper ridge slightly starting Thursday and some minor height falls may take a couple of degrees off the high temperatures.
NBM deterministic guidance is offering daily highs in the mid-to-upper 70s with overnight lows in the low-to-mid 50s; temperatures more representative of late September! A warming trend will then evolve over the weekend as a ridiculous 850-mb heat ridge (30 degC) advects across the Central Plains and helps push the 594-mb high into the Mid-Mississippi Valley.
941 AM CDT Wed Aug 21 2024 Dewpoints at this hour continue to hover in the low to mid 60s away from the immediate coastline while the frontal boundary responsible continues to sit offshore producing a few thunderstorms beyond 60 miles. The lower dewpoints will allow afternoon highs to climb into the mid to upper 90s, but with apparent temperatures much more tolerable than is typical for mid August.
614 AM EDT Wed Aug 21 2024 High pressure along with cooler and drier air moving into the region continues to persist into the weekend.
527 AM CDT Wed Aug 21 2024 - High pressure and mild weather will continue through Thursday, with temperatures in the mid-upper 70s. Upper ridge continues to slowly build and shuffle east over the area, with a weak wave currently passing through. Enjoy the weather over the next 24-48 hours, as the heat is quickly approaching! With an omega block forecast to briefly set up across the United States, we will remain under high pressure, which will result in a continued mild pattern across the area. Temperatures are forecast to be slightly warmer on Thursday (upper 70s) but low humidity will make conditions quite pleasant for mid-week.
946 AM EDT Wed Aug 21 2024 A low pressure trough lingers nearby today, followed by building high pressure for the remainder of the week.
610 AM CDT Wed Aug 21 2024 (Today through Thursday Night) A large area of high pressure will wobble from the Great Lakes to the Ohio Vally and mid-Atlantic states through the near term. Clockwise flow around the high will continue to usher in a mild east/northeast wind, and this will result in below average temperatures. Looking aloft, troughing east of the Mississippi River will will slowly exit toward the Atlantic Ocean. Ridging over the Plains will gradually build in our direction.
By evening, greater moisture will begin spreading westward toward Mississippi, aided by easterly surface flow in conjunction with westward movement of the inverted trough.
The upper low is progged to begin lifting out on Thursday as 1024+mb high slides over PA. Partly to mostly sunny skies with max temps in the upper 60s to mid 70s trend warmer day/day, but remain 5-10 degrees below late August climo.
342 PM EDT Wed Aug 21 2024 Broad high pressure gradually builds in to end the week.
Highs have reached the lower 80s and dewpoints that sit comfortably in the the mid 50s to lower 60s.
Temps aloft will be a tad cooler, around -6 to -7C at 500mb, and there still remains some lingering drier air aloft, with DCAPE values 500-800 J/kg. Greater moisture in place will continue humid conditions today, which will combine with highs reaching the low to mid 90s through early afternoon to produce peak heat index values up to 102-107F.
A trough digging off the Pacific Northwest coast is causing southwest flow over the region today.
We started the day with temperatures in the upper 40s to low 50s! The rest of today will be great with highs in the low to mid 80s, a few passing clouds, and a nice northeast breeze. A ridge developing over the Great Plains will continue building east through the week which will push our temperature readings up higher each day. This ridge looks to hold on through the entirety of the 7-day, keeping our weather hot and dry.
Aloft, H500 heights rise from 583 to 590 decameters through the short term as low pressure and its associated trough lift northeast out of New England and the eastern CONUS while a high pressure centered over Texas noses its way into the Ohio and Tennessee valley regions. The period begins with upper-level ridge building across the southern CONUS.
another weather system which looks to be a bit stronger than the past few ones recently will move across the area from mid to late morning through the overnight hours, in between an upper level high over Texas and upper level low off the Oregon coast.
1116 AM EDT Wed Aug 21 2024 Our region will remain trapped through tonight between a slow moving upper level storm over New England and high pressure over the Upper Great Lakes. The area of high pressure wil drift east to the Mid Atlantic region for the second half of the week. as our region will remain sandwiched between a stacked area of low pressure over New England and high pressure over the Upper Great Lakes.
1245 PM CDT Wed Aug 21 2024 - High pressure and mild weather will continue through Thursday, with temperatures in the mid-upper 70s. Upper ridge continues to slowly build and shuffle east over the area, with a weak wave currently passing through. Enjoy the weather over the next 24-48 hours, as the heat is quickly approaching! With an omega block forecast to briefly set up across the United States, we will remain under high pressure, which will result in a continued mild pattern across the area. Temperatures are forecast to be slightly warmer on Thursday (upper 70s) but low humidity will make conditions quite pleasant for mid-week.
(Through tonight) Overall a quiet night is in store for much of the area as the region remains under eastern periphery of the upper level ridge.
253 PM EDT Wed Aug 21 2024 A slow moving upper level low will track across the Northeast US tonight and Thursday with chilly and unsettled weather for northeast PA and central NY. After this low passes east, high pressure will build in for the end of the week into the weekend with fair and warmer weather. For the rest of this afternoon scattered to numerous showers will continue as an upper level low tracks into northern New England. After sunset, heating is lost, upper level low is over northern Maine, and subsidence kicks in on the synoptic scale in addition to the diurnal loss of lifting.
Breezes will freshen by this weekend, as the Atlantic ridge rebuilds westward across the Florida Peninsula.
This and very dry mid-level conditions brought by the northerly flow around the ridge has kept today high and dry. We'll definitely take a break from the oppressive heat with these dew points in the low to mid 60s. Northerly upper-level flow looks to remain over the area tomorrow as the ridge over the panhandle of Texas slowly meanders to the east. Needless to say, enjoy a "cooler" morning and the same dry conditions as today for tomorrow.
Temperatures a few degrees warmer today with sunny skies and light winds. Large area of strong high pressure remains centered from James Bay thru the Great Lakes into the Mid Mississippi Valley and Ohio Valley early this morning. High pressure center will hold over this same large area for the next 24 hours. with highs this afternoon warming into the low to mid 70s. with troughing over the western US, sharp ridging over the central continent, and troughing in the east. Some energy trying to slip through the broader ridge over the Upper Midwest, but struggling to do much aside from mainly high clouds. as ridging remains generally in control of our weather for the time being. One more cool night Thursday night with potential for interior locales to drop into the lower 40s again.
159 PM EDT Wed Aug 21 2024 A low pressure trough lingers nearby today, followed by building high pressure for the remainder of the week.
The amplified mid-level ridge is centered over eastern New Mexico this afternoon and will slowly shift eastward over the Caprock tomorrow. Excessive heat is expected tomorrow afternoon and evening as the center of the upper high drifts over west Texas, with temperatures up to 110 and heat indices up to 113 degrees expected over western north Texas and adjacent Oklahoma Counties. Eastward, maximum temperatures will only be in the low 90's.
204 PM EDT Wed Aug 21 2024 The slow moving upper level storm system that has been circulating clouds and Fall-like conditions across our region during the past couple days will now give way to high pressure that will guarantee fair weather with day to day warming into the upcoming weekend. Mins will once again dip into the low to mid 40s across the interior of the Srn Tier. while the lake plains will generally experience readings in the low to mid 50s. expansive high pressure over the Mid west will make its way to the Mid Atlantic region.
1227 PM EDT Wed Aug 21 2024 A low pressure trough lingers nearby today, followed by building high pressure for the remainder of the week.
Dangerous heat continues to be the primary concern across S TX as a strong mid level high pressure system remains parked across the middle of the country. Models are all in good agreement with this high remaining in place through Thursday. Temperatures Thursday will be a degree or two cooler than today, so the daily record highs may be safe, though Corpus Christi has about a 10 percent chance of reaching the record of 101 degrees.
1222 PM CDT Wed Aug 21 2024 Dewpoints at this hour continue to hover in the low to mid 60s away from the immediate coastline while the frontal boundary responsible continues to sit offshore producing a few thunderstorms beyond 60 miles. The lower dewpoints will allow afternoon highs to climb into the mid to upper 90s, but with apparent temperatures much more tolerable than is typical for mid August.
1106 AM CDT Wed Aug 21 2024 (Rest of Today) An unseasonably cool morning was underway as temperatures are recovering into the upper 50s to lower 60s after bottoming out in the lower to middle 50s for many locations. A few cumulus may also develop in our southeast counties along the higher terrain where dew points will be around 60. Expect high temperatures in the lower to middle 80s.
The upper level high pressure ridge will remain over the region tomorrow. Given the strength of the upper ridge overhead confidence is low in this scenario.
1228 PM CDT Wed Aug 21 2024 (Today through Thursday night) An omega block pattern remains in place with troughs over the Western US and Northeastern US, and a robust ridge over the Southern Plains. With daytime heating and large-scale subsidence from the robust high pressure, temperatures will be able to warm to values well above average. Will lean toward the majority of guidance, and the NBM, and keep the northeastern combined Panhandles one of the "cooler" spots in the CWA, but the humidity brings the heat index to near 100 degrees east of the boundary. GFS brings mid-100 degree temperatures into Beaver County while the other models are more into the low to mid-90s; a 10-15 degree difference.
329 PM EDT Wed Aug 21 2024 - Quiet weather with cooler temperatuers tonight Pattern Synopsis and Forecast: Current satellite shows some low topped CU over northern lower this afternoon. Although winds are northerly, temperatures are around 4 to 6 degrees warmer than yesterday afternoon with the increasing heights aloft moving overhead. Overnight temperatures will continue to be cooler with most locations dropping down into the 40s, and typical colder spots possibly touching the high 30s. Pattern Synopsis and Forecast: Longwave midlevel ridging along the northern atmospheric branch over continues to push a quiet and stable air mass to the Central U. Not much will change by the start of the forecast period as aformentioned ridging is still sitting over the central U.
229 PM EDT Wed Aug 21 2024 High pressure along with cooler and drier air moving into the region continues to persist into the weekend.
236 PM EDT Wed Aug 21 2024 High pressure will maintain control across the Mid Atlantic through the weekend.
Going later into this afternoon into the early evening, there is a very slight (~15% chance) of a shower or thunderstorm for the far western Oklahoma Panhandle as the main moisture transport around the high may help to generate precipitation for this region. Heat headlines are in effect tomorrow afternoon for areas in the 105-110 degree range where south and southeast winds will advect pronounced adiabatic warming airmass under the large subsidence region of the main H500 high pressure system.
What has changed, is the downstream low/trough that has filled and continues to fill which consequently loosened the gradient for the area, providing us with even calmer NNE winds today with speeds of up to 10mph. Highs today look to be below 90F north of I-20 and 90F-95F south of I-20, keeping with the general trend of cooler air advecting into the area today.