Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
120 PM EDT Thu Sep 25 2025 A surface cold front and an upper level trough will hold to our west through early Friday, then both will push slowly eastward through the Appalachians and into the Carolinas through the weekend, bringing wet and unsettled weather. The boundary depicted the cloudy skies and cooler temperatures in the west from the sunny and hot conditions in the east. This occurs as the low pressure in the mid levels to our west over the TN Valley starts to close off. Overall, expect mostly cloudy skies and cooler highs in the upper 70s NW to mid 80s SE.
1236 PM MDT Thu Sep 25 2025 KEY MESSAGES: - A trough and dry cold front today will cause breezy conditions this afternoon and evening.
Updated at 1159 AM CDT Thu Sep 25 2025 - After tonight, temperatures warmer than normal through the forecast period.
The positive tilted upper trough remains over the region today, though the associated jet core is centered more over eastern KY with a speed max over Ohio. GOES satellite imagery shows some breaks in the cloud cover, which had led to sfc temps to be a few degrees warmer across southern KY. For tomorrow, the upper trough axis is expected to slide across the TN Valley, further removing any associated moisture and forcing from our area.
105 PM EDT Thu Sep 25 2025 A cold front will continue to move east of the area through Friday, with showers gradually ending from west to east overnight through Friday morning.
109 PM EDT Thu Sep 25 2025 A cold front will continue to move east of the area through Friday, with showers gradually ending from west to east overnight through Friday morning.
As the main upper level trough shifts off to our east, a weak cutoff low will develop in its wake across the Tennessee Valley this weekend. This could lead to a few showers across our far southeast, but with high pressure still in place at the surface, expect the majority of our area to remain dry.
(Through tonight) Isolated showers and thunderstorms gradually move east/ northeast across the CWA for the rest of the day and into tonight as a cold front approaches.
Otherwise mostly sunny skies are expected today as high pressure stays in control of the region. A cold front sinking south tonight will bring the chance for some sprinkles this evening across north-central Wisconsin, but should otherwise track through the area fairly dry as model soundings show a dearth of moisture. Temperatures will fall modestly behind the cold front on Friday, with a robust rebound this weekend as temperatures rise solidly into the 70s with a few 80 degree readings expected across the region. High pressure will be in control of the weather through much of the upcoming week with dry weather and above normal temperatures expected across the area.
A weak frontal boundary across the lower Mississippi River Valley combined with an upper-trough swinging east across the region could allow for widely scattered showers and thunderstorms across north Louisiana and south Arkansas this afternoon. Once the trough exits to the east, upper-level ridging will build across the Red River Valley into Oklahoma allowing for north to northwest flow across the ArkLaTex through the weekend. Subsidence associated with the ridge will allow for mostly clear skies areawide through much of the period.
1248 PM MDT Thu Sep 25 2025 - Slightly cooler (upper 70s) with breezy northwest winds behind a dry cold front on Friday.
Otherwise, as we continue to see little to no precipitation and above normal temperatures the diurnal spread of temperatures is increasing a bit, thus forecast lows have been coming in a bit cooler and highs a bit warmer with the dry or drying ground. The 850 mb temperature will be in the upper teens C in northwest iowa and the lower 20s C in central SD.
The dry cold front will traverse the area during the daytime hours, moving east of the CWA by sunset. Winds will be slow to diminish in the Cascade gaps this evening, eventually becoming light area wide as the surface anticyclone nudges into the area. Cooler air will settle over southeast WA/northeast OR for tomorrow with high temperatures much closer to climatology.
/NEW/ /Through Friday Night/ With upper-level ridging building into the region from the west and high pressure at the surface, mild and dry conditions are expected through the end of this work week.
A slowing frontal boundary associated with an upper level trof moving across Tennessee will provide a focus for more widespread showers and thunderstorms across north and central Florida through much of the day Friday.
The main story through much of the extended remains the building ridge and stretch of dry weather.
702 PM EDT Thu Sep 25 2025 - A cold front brings isolated rain showers to the western half this evening. Visible satellite shows mostly sunny skies across Upper Michigan this afternoon beneath transient upper level ridging as low pressure slowly departs to the south and east. Looking upstream, a cold front extends southwest into the MN Arrowhead from a deep low over Hudson Bay, and this feature is poised to move across the Lake Superior and the UP tonight. Expect overnight lows to be a bit warmer than last night as broken mid level cloud cover accompanies the frontal passage.
555 PM CDT Thu Sep 25 2025 Updated at 555 PM CDT Thu Sep 25 2025 - After tonight, temperatures warmer than normal through the forecast period.
Weak subsidence behind the cold front that has crossed through the region will allow for clearing skies this evening into the early overnight hours. As the main upper level trough shifts off to our east, a weak cutoff low will develop in its wake across the Tennessee Valley this weekend. This could lead to a few showers across our far southeast, but with high pressure still in place at the surface, expect the majority of our area to remain dry.
555 PM CDT Thu Sep 25 2025 - Winds will be breezy Friday, ahead of a dry cold front passage, with gusts of 20 to 30 mph by the afternoon.
A dry cold front is approaching the area this evening, located just west of the forecast area as of 8:30 PM MDT. Pre-frontal winds have already increased in the Baker Valley and the Lower Treasure Valley, with gusts up to 30 mph.
514 PM EDT Thu Sep 25 2025 A cold front will continue to move east of the area through Friday, with showers gradually ending from west to east overnight through Friday morning.
521 PM MDT Thu Sep 25 2025 - Slightly cooler (upper 70s) with breezy northwest winds behind a dry cold front Friday.
- Afternoons will feature pleasantly warm temperatures, a few degrees above normal, mainly in the lower 80s. No cold fronts or unseasonably hot temperatures are expected. An upper level ridge will build above the area over the next several days bringing dry conditions to western Kansas.
1043 PM EDT Thu Sep 25 2025 A cold front will continue to move east of the area through Friday, with showers gradually ending from west to east overnight through Friday morning.
/Issued 1231 PM CDT Thu Sep 25 2025/ /Through Friday Night/ With upper-level ridging building into the region from the west and high pressure at the surface, mild and dry conditions are expected through the end of this work week.
727 PM CDT Thu Sep 25 2025 (This evening through Friday) Organized showers and thunderstorms will remain in the forecast for much of the short-term, as the deep trough moving through the region starts to become closed off. As a whole, this new closed low won't effect the forecast too much, but it could result in more organized rain chances lingering through the weekend.
752 PM EDT Thu Sep 25 2025 (Through tonight) Isolated showers and thunderstorms gradually move east/ northeast across the CWA for the rest of the day and into tonight as a cold front approaches.
A cold front is making its way through Middle TN this evening with it currently just east of Nashville. (Rest of today through Friday) A positively-tilted trough is currently stretched from Texas through the Great Lakes region and is making a slow eastward progression. The aforementioned vort max to our west is progged to separate from the overall trough axis tomorrow, becoming a cut-off low that will linger in the region for a couple of days. Friday will be a great weather day overall with highs in the low 80s for the rain- free areas west of the Appalachians.
As we start the new week, high pressure will reign, and we should get mighty close to a wind pattern that is driven entirely by the landbreeze/seabreeze circulation.
(Tonight through Saturday night) The cold front continues to move through the region early this morning, a bit delayed than previously thought. Anything behind the prior prefrontal trough and the front will be very shallow with the abundance of dry air aloft.
Updated at 1240 AM CDT FRI SEP 26 2025 - Cooler through the weekend.
An U/L trough will move over the southeast U. today with a closed low developing which will become cut-off from the large scale U/L flow across the CONUS.
123 AM EDT Fri Sep 26 2025 - A cold front brings isolated rain showers to the western half this evening. Visible satellite shows mostly sunny skies across Upper Michigan this afternoon beneath transient upper level ridging as low pressure slowly departs to the south and east. Looking upstream, a cold front extends southwest into the MN Arrowhead from a deep low over Hudson Bay, and this feature is poised to move across the Lake Superior and the UP tonight. Expect overnight lows to be a bit warmer than last night as broken mid level cloud cover accompanies the frontal passage. Another cold front will move across the area Friday night into Saturday.
Better moisture will advect into the region as the flow becomes more southerly when the low pivots into the Lower Colorado River Valley this afternoon and Saturday- which will increase the threat of heavy rain. Isolated flash flooding will be possible, especially with any training storms, with Saturday being the highest threat for flash flooding as PWATs peak at 0.
/NEW/ /Overnight through Saturday/ Clear skies and light winds will continue through the rest of tonight and into Friday as much of the Southern Plains will be under the influence of mid level ridging.
Water vapor imagery/surface analysis early this morning shows a cold front extending from Luce to Menominee Counties. For the remainder of today, weak high pressure will result in plenty of sunshine and daytime highs climbing to normal in the 60s. Tonight, another cold front will move across the area into Saturday.
101 AM CDT Fri Sep 26 2025 In comparison to the previous weeks, an overall drier forecast is expected across Deep South Texas over the next 7 days, though there remains a chance of showers and thunderstorms most days east of US- 281 along the seabreeze boundary through the afternoon, with the highest chances closer to the coast. Slight upper level divergence from a departing trough over the eastern CONUS and lift provided from a frontal boundary lingering near the Rio Grande Valley have the potential to generate a low (15-20%) chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms for southern portions of the lower RGV and SPI through the mid-morning and early afternoon hours today.
The southern portion of a large posivively-tiled upper trough extending from southeast Canada to eastern Texas will swing eastward with a centralized weak cutoff low pressure area forming today over the southeast CONUS. The axis of the system will reach Georgia and the northeast Gulf by Saturday evening, and then stall between an upper ridge building over the Great Plains and an upper high pressure area over the Atlantic.
Dry conditions expected as upper ridging builds aloft.
Patchy fog development will again be possible due to the earlier rainfall -- with lows dropping into the lower 60s.
156 AM MDT Fri Sep 26 2025 KEY MESSAGES: - Look for gusty NW winds today behind a cold front with a Lake Wind Advisory in effect for Fort Peck Lake.
Cooler temperatures will especially be felt at night with low temperatures through the weekend before temperatures begin to slowly moderate by the next work week. Mostly clear skies currently prevailing with near calm winds which will allow temperatures to fall mostly into the upper 50s across our far northern zones to the lower and middle 60s elsewhere.
As a result high temperatures today are a few degrees cooler than yesterday, in the upper 60s to 70s across the state. High temperatures tomorrow will warm ahead of another cold front. A cold front will roll through the area tomorrow afternoon bringing forth breezy conditions across the state. Upper level ridging will continue across the region through the weekend leading to above normal temperatures and dry conditions.
(Tonight through Saturday Night) The cold front has completed its passage through Middle Tennessee and temperatures have dropped a good 6 to 8 degrees with the northerly wind. A positively-tilted trough will swing its axis across the southeast tomorrow, bringing low to medium rain chances around 20-40% mainly to areas east of I-65. An eventual cutoff low developing within this trough will the meander over our east as we head into the weekend. It's shaping up to be a pleasant weekend overall with mostly dry conditions and temperatures gradually warming each day as ridging builds in from the west.
Early this morning an upper level low was sitting over the Hudson Bay with ridging over the central U. P with a cold front stretching through northern WI into the central U. Temperatures will warm well into the 70s for much of the area though it will be slightly cooler, near 70 over the far north and eastern U. The deterministic NBM seems too high with dewpoints/RH, opted to use the NBM 25th percentile for Saturday afternoon to reflect the lower dewpoints and RH. The main story through much of the extended remains the building ridge and stretch of dry weather.
The upper-level trough that has brought more reasonable weather to South Texas continues to make its way across The South through this weekend.
Here, the upper trough axis closes off into a weak upper low, and may have enough lingering moisture/triggering for an isolated shower or storm around peak heating. Lows tonight look to dip into the low and mid 50s for most, and will likely have another opportunity for at least some river valley fog, if not more.
317 AM CDT Fri Sep 26 2025 - Winds will be breezy Friday, both ahead of and behind a dry cold front passage, with gusts of 20 to 30 mph in the afternoon and evening.
Upper level ridging builds into the area today as a rex block looks to setup for the at least the next 5 to 6 days. A wave moving across the ridge axis will drag a weak/diffuse cold front towards the area later in the short term. Before this occurs, weak flow and high pressure will be the main weather influencer in the short term. High pressure across the area coincided with a drier airmass as well. Blocking pattern is forecast to take shape as ridging builds into the area. While a wave to our north tries to bring in a cold front on Saturday, very dry air will result in no precip.
154 AM EDT Fri Sep 26 2025 A warm front has moved north of the area. Behind it, a cold front is expected to move through tonight.
However, some high clouds may move in from the west today with increasing mid-level moisture ahead of a cut-off low over southern Cali.
- Afternoons will feature pleasantly warm temperatures, a few degrees above normal, mainly in the lower 80s. No cold fronts or unseasonably hot temperatures are expected. An upper level ridge will build above the area over the next several days bringing dry conditions to western Kansas. Winds will generally be from a southerly direction through Friday night before a weak cold front moves through the area Saturday morning shifting winds briefly to the north.
1120 PM CDT Thu Sep 25 2025 - Winds will be breezy Friday, ahead of a dry cold front passage, with gusts of 20 to 30 mph by the afternoon.
204 AM MDT Fri Sep 26 2025 - Slightly cooler (upper 70s) with breezy northwest winds behind a dry cold front today.
Dry and Mild Weather Through Midweek: The trough that has been centered over the Great Lakes the last few days will shift off to the east. Any rain chances with this trough are expected to stay in far northern Minnesota into the northern Great Lakes. After this trough moves by, ridging builds back in and will likely stay through midweek. Ensemble and deterministic guidance are in good agreement that a ridge builds in this weekend and linger for a several days.
Upper level ridging over the plains through Saturday will gradually shift eastward as a weak upper low over the Desert Southwest moves eastward and weakens.
Another low pressure system may bring additional precip to the southeast portion of the forecast area by Saturday. KEY MESSAGES: - Drier, warmer for today - Areas of fog possible again tonight north of Pittsburgh --------------------------------------------------------------- Visibility across the area has mostly improved as of 10am this morning with mixing. The current conditions across the area this morning feature the 500MB trough finally beginning to cross the forecast area. Elsewhere, conditions will begin to clear out with warmer temperatures through the day. That being case due to a low pressure system tracking up the coast and will spread cloud cover over the southern portion of the forecast area.
Issued 950 AM CDT Fri Sep 26 2025 No change from the previous forecast as weak backdoor cold front slides southward bringing wider spread stratus clouds. Wagner Issued 400 AM CDT Fri Sep 26 2025 Today through Saturday: A Canadian cold front is currently progressing swd from ne WI and nrn Lake MI. Swly winds, warm advection, and sunshine should boost temps into the lower to middle 80s for Sat afternoon. The trailing weak and dry cold front will then pass Sat nt.
843 AM MDT Fri Sep 26 2025 - Slightly cooler (upper 70s) with breezy northwest winds behind a dry cold front today.
For the remainder of the day, things will remain mostly quiet, though a cloud line could develop over the Lower Keys producing a waterspout or two and isolated showers. Meanwhile, an upper level trough over the eastern CONUS will move close enough to steer the developing low and support its development east of the Florida Keys.
Issued 400 AM CDT Fri Sep 26 2025 Today through Saturday: A Canadian cold front is currently progressing swd from ne WI and nrn Lake MI. Swly winds, warm advection, and sunshine should boost temps into the lower to middle 80s for Sat afternoon. The trailing weak and dry cold front will then pass Sat nt.
This will be short lived through the early morning, otherwise sunny skies will prevail with temps warming into the mid and upper 80s this afternoon Dunn Previous Discussion: /Overnight through Saturday/ Clear skies and light winds will continue through the rest of tonight and into Friday as much of the Southern Plains will be under the influence of mid level ridging.
628 AM CDT Fri Sep 26 2025 Updated at 623 AM CDT FRI SEP 26 2025 - Cooler through the weekend.
The highest rain chances appear to be from Manatee County northward and over the interior.
543 AM CDT Fri Sep 26 2025 - Winds will be breezy Friday, both ahead of and behind a dry cold front passage, with gusts of 20 to 30 mph in the afternoon and evening.
Associated warm frontal boundary will pass through the forecast area this morning, along with a trailing cold frontal boundary not far behind. For Saturday, high pressure is progged to scoot across South Dakota. Highs Saturday will be a bit cooler, albeit still slightly above average, and mostly in the 70s.
Water vapor imagery this morning showed a closed upper low near Los Angeles, moving to the S-SE.
541 AM CDT Fri Sep 26 2025 In comparison to the previous weeks, an overall drier forecast is expected across Deep South Texas over the next 7 days, though there remains a chance of showers and thunderstorms most days east of US- 281 along the seabreeze boundary through the afternoon, with the highest chances closer to the coast. Slight upper level divergence from a departing trough over the eastern CONUS and lift provided from a frontal boundary lingering near the Rio Grande Valley have the potential to generate a low (15-20%) chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms for southern portions of the lower RGV and SPI through the mid-morning and early afternoon hours today.
1053 AM EDT Fri Sep 26 2025 A cold front moves through the area this morning. High pressure then builds in through the first part of the weekend.
359 AM MDT Fri Sep 26 2025 - A quick moving cool front will move from west to east across the CWA this morning, brining in a bit cooler temperatures for this afternoon.
629 AM CDT Fri Sep 26 2025 The southern portion of a large posivively-tiled upper trough extending from southeast Canada to eastern Texas will swing eastward with a centralized weak cutoff low pressure area forming today over the southeast CONUS. The axis of the system will reach Georgia and the northeast Gulf by Saturday evening, and then stall between an upper ridge building over the Great Plains and an upper high pressure area over the Atlantic.
- A quick moving cool front will move from west to east across the CWA this morning, brining in a bit cooler temperatures for this afternoon.
847 AM MDT Fri Sep 26 2025 - A quick moving cool front will move from west to east across the CWA this morning, bringing in a bit cooler temperatures for this afternoon.
Cooler temperatures will especially be felt at night with low temperatures through the weekend before temperatures begin to slowly moderate by the next work week.
Water vapor imagery this afternoon displays a mid- to upper-level ridge centered over the south-central CONUS. At the surface, high pressure overspreads much of the east-central CONUS, bringing clear skies to the area and afternoon highs expected in the low to mid 80s, about 5 to 10 degrees above the climatological average for late September.
209 PM EDT Fri Sep 26 2025 Scattered showers and storms today as a cold front approaches the area, with potential for locally heavy rain. Key message(s): - Slow moving trough and front will bring widespread shower-storms this evening. A digging upper level trough and associated synoptic scale forcing will help drive some widespread showers-storms later this afternoon and evening. A plume of high PWAT's remains over the region downstream of this trough axis, pushing over 2. Key message(s): - Showers and thunderstorms expected Saturday afternoon An upper level trough will swing into the Southeast into the short term and become negatively tilted. Rain chances will likely diminish by Saturday night as the initial trough axis moves to our northeast along with the deeper moisture.
An omega block will set up between troughing over the Pacific NW and likely tropical cyclone Imelda stalling near or over the southeast US and Humberto stalling a bit farther offshore.
A southern stream upper level trough was located over central and southern CA, with a down stream upper level ridge axis across the central Rockies. A southern stream upper level trough was located across the eastern Great Lakes, southwest into southeast TX. The 18Z surface maps showed a cold front extending southward across central ND, then southwest into southwest SD, and northeast WY. Light southerly winds were noted across the forecast area with temperatures already into the lower to mid 80s.
Mid-level ridging has taken control of the region this afternoon in between cutoff energy over the southwest and southeast CONUS. Abundant sunshine has allowed for quick warming of temperatures through the day and highs will top out in the low to mid 80s.
Visible satellite shows no clouds over the state with the eastern edge of the broad ridge fully over the region.
Aloft, the current pattern is dominated by two upstream features: the persistent troughing in the Gulf of Alaska and a stubborn ridging across the north-central NOAM. This has forced the jet stream & low pressures into Canada while we're left in weak flow aloft. In plain language - we're more likely to experience seasonably warm & dry conditions as any low pressures track up and over the ridge. The one notable weather feature will be a dry frontal passage Saturday morning, that'll bring a brief cool down to highs in the low to mid 70s as opposed to upper 70s/lower 80s.