Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A cold front will move across the area today brining a good chance of rain and mountain snow showers, cooler temperatures and breezy conditions. 3 am surface analysis placed the cold front over far western Arizona or just east of the Colorado River. As the cold front pushes east this morning, it will pick up low level moisture from the GulfCA and spread it across the area. Showers will continue to develop out ahead of the approaching cold front which should be near the AZ/NM border by late this afternoon. Then there is another shot of showers associated with the trof axis that pushes across the area tonight. Snow level will lower to around 6500 feet with passage of cold front. Main forecast concern is with snow totals across the highest mountain peaks, or above 8000 feet.
Precipitation becoming more widespread again early this morning with another wave pushing northeast ahead of the main upper trough in a wet and slightly unstable atmosphere. A few more waves remain on track to push through the region through Monday night before the main upper trough passes.
612 AM EST Sun Nov 3 2024 High pressure will be over the region today with mostly sunny skies, but cool temperatures.
An upper level trough over the western US will deepen today with a closed low developing over the AZ/NM vicinity later tonight. The aforementioned upper level trough begins to move east Monday bringing first a dry line, then a cold front to the area.
The southerly winds will continue overnight keeping lows much warmer tonight with lows in the 50s to lower 60s. Monday will be pretty similar with breezy conditions and mostly cloudy skies as the upper level riding remains stubborn with a deep trough stuck over the southern Rockies.
410 AM MST Sun Nov 3 2024 - Cold front sweeps south across the state today, bringing reinforcing colder temperatures and snowfall to higher elevations east of the Divide.
528 AM CST Sun Nov 3 2024 (Today through Monday) The surface pressure gradient is expected to tighten for today and Monday as troughing advances across the central U. with ridging holding in place just off the Southeast U. High and low temperatures will continue to generally follow an 80s/60s pattern, with a few swaths of cooler temperatures across east and northeast Alabama.
548 AM EST Sun Nov 3 2024 As high pressure to the east of the region moves further away, southerly flow will become established and increase for the early part of the week.
906 AM EST Sun Nov 3 2024 High pressure will be over the region today with mostly sunny skies, but cool temperatures.
Although we got a slight "break" from increased winds as a high pressure weakened, a secondary high pressure has started building down across the eastern U. reinforcing the high and elevating local winds once again.
625 AM EST Sun Nov 3 2024 High pressure will extend into the area from the northeast.
Cold northwest flow and remnants from an upper low will bring cool conditions and isolated to scattered rain and snow showers over the area today. Strong winds will also develop in the afternoon with the highest winds expected in Nye county with gusts to 50 mph. An upper trough will continue to shift east and south for today. Snow accumulations for the day will remain at less than a half-inch in the valley locations, with the highest values in northern Elko county. In addition, an inch or so of additional snow will be possible across the higher summits and passes. For the overnight, the passing trough will skirt over northeastern Nevada with light snow showers mainly in the Jarbidge wilderness.
(Today through Monday) The surface pressure gradient is expected to tighten for today and Monday as troughing advances across the central U. with ridging holding in place just off the Southeast U. High and low temperatures will continue to generally follow an 80s/60s pattern, with a few swaths of cooler temperatures across east and northeast Alabama.
548 AM CST Sun Nov 3 2024 Today and Tonight: Early morning global guidance continues to highlight an amplified ridge pattern settling over a majority of our CWA. With morning temperatures in the lower 60s range approaching the crossover point along with limited moisture advection, portions of southwest/south-central MS could see some patchy fog early this morning. Aside from few isolated to scattered showers near SE AR and E LA (with low end rain chances between 25-30%), weather conditions over central MS will be quiet through this afternoon with highs peaking in the low to mid 80s. Rain coverage will begin to decrease for areas west of the MS River tonight as the aforementioned ridge pattern continues to dominate the forecast.
We are expecting a few more rounds of widespread showers and thunderstorms to progress northeast across the region through Monday night, as a deep upper trough continues to approach slowly from the west-southwest, and a strong cold front approaches from the west- northwest. This 4th round is likely the only one to impact central Kansas, as the parent upper trough pivots across the region, with the other rounds of showers/storms most widespread over mainly southeast Kansas. Furthermore, a few thunderstorms capable of small hail are possible this afternoon-evening west of I-135, with better chances over western Kansas, as marginal instability increases ahead of the approaching dryline/cold front. For Monday afternoon, a few strong to severe storms are possible over far southeast Kansas in vicinity of the advancing cold front, as instability and deep layer shear increase ahead of the ejecting upper trough.
Temperatures along the Island Chain are in the lower to mid 80s with dew points in the lower 70s. From synopsis, a high pressure system over the eastern United States and North Atlantic, and a deepening low expected to move west northwestward through the northwestern Caribbean Sea, will drive increasing easterly breezes through midweek. There still remains some uncertainty with the development and track of this low, which will likely have large impacts on local winds and convective coverage.
208 PM EST Sun Nov 3 2024 High pressure is currently in charge with dry air, a mostly clear sky, and near normal temperatures.
(Tonight through Sunday) One more line of storms is expected to develop along the cold front Monday, moving through during the afternoon hours. Additionally, the mid levels are looking cooler and drier, which may result in less efficient rain production, but would increase the severe weather potential, especially for wind and hail. Behind the front, cooler and drier weather will settle in.
Taking a look at satellite water vapor we can see the approaching trough over the Rockies, and the ongoing convection over the southern and eastern Plains. As it does so it will drag a cold front across our region. This cold front will help to focus the available energy (300-700 J/kg MUCAPE) to form some stronger showers and possibly a thunderstorm or two. North of a rough line from Chamberlain to Watertown, and south of a line from roughly Wayne NE to Marshall MN look to have the highest probability of seeing at least 0. Highs for Monday will be slightly cooler, but still above average, in the 50s.
1002 AM EST Sun Nov 3 2024 As high pressure to the east of the region moves further away, southerly flow will become established and increase for the early part of the week.
208 PM EST Sun Nov 3 2024 As high pressure to the east of the region moves further away, southerly flow will become established and increase for the early part of the week.
(This afternoon through Monday) Short term forecast continues to be on track through the next 24 hours as high pressure dominates with a convergent frontal boundary just upstream.
A cold front will continue to move across the area today bringing rain and mountain snow showers, cooler temperatures and breezy conditions. The 12 PM radar shows the cold front moving eastward with light to moderate rain showers in Southeast Pinal County to the western edge of Tucson metro. The cold front is moving a little slower than expected and bringing better opportunities for higher amounts of rain and even mountain snow. Breezy conditions can be expected with the cold front. Freezing temperatures for the locations east of Tucson and south near the International Border.
This afternoon, a high amplitude trough remains over the western half of the CONUS. Isentropic ascent on the eastern side of the trough axis continues over the region. Much of the late evening and nighttime hours tonight look dry before our next batch of widespread rainfall arrives Monday as the western troughs continues to dig eastward. While conditions stay dry here, another high amplitude trough will be developing out west.
Gusty north winds behind a cold front will remain over the region into Monday.
The trough axis is positioned east of the region over eastern Idaho/Utah, with a strong upper jet over western Oregon. Higher chances for precipitation, including snow above 4500 feet, remain focused over the higher terrain of east-central Oregon and west-central Idaho.
We could still see an isolated snow shower this afternoon across the higher terrain of the central mountains or eastern highlands but even these will be hard to come by beyond sunset. By mid to late afternoon tomorrow, clouds will begin to increase ahead of our next weather system as an upper level trough again digs into the area with some enhanced waves of vorticity moving through the base of the trough sparking another period of snow for the region. Snow will primarily be focused across the higher terrain, especially the eastern highlands and areas that perform well in NW upslope regimes. Does look like the lower valleys won't see much with this feature but some snow showers, maybe a light dusting, will be possible but shouldn't be anything too problematic.
All severe hazard modes will be possible with these storms if/once they can get organized, with the highest threat occurring across southeast OK.
(Tonight) As the deep upper level trough across the Southern Plains slowly shifts eastward tonight, it will begin to push the upper level ridge over the Southeast off to the east. A noticeable increase in cloud cover is expected for the Tennessee Valley later tonight that originated from storms along the trough axis. As low pressure continues to deepen over the Plains, expect gradient winds to remain elevated through the night with gusts 20-25 mph with some 30 mph gusts in the higher terrain in Northeast Alabama.
High pressure continues to ridge across the area keeping a mainly easterly flow in place, with gusty conditions in the afternoon and evening. Will be continuing to monitor an area of low pressure moving into the Gulf for the latter half of the week. High pressure will keep mainly easterly flow in place across the area for the next few days, with an evening surge increasing winds to SCEC possibly SCA levels for a few hours. An area of low pressure will then move into the Gulf waters, with the pressure gradient between it and the high over the area increasing winds and seas over the coastal waters.
1251 PM EST Sun Nov 3 2024 High pressure is currently in charge with dry air, a mostly clear sky, and near normal temperatures.
Discussion: Ridge of high pressure will continue to remain across our area through the short term. The pressure gradient will tighten as a cold front approaches from the west.
1213 PM MST Sun Nov 3 2024 - Some mountain snow today with colder temperatures behind a cold front.
High pressure ridging continues today and into tonight continuing onshore flow and low level moisture over the area. Overnight temperatures will be in the low 60s over southeast Georgia and mid to upper 60s over Northeast Florida staying slightly warmer along the coast.
Transitioning into Monday, the main longwave trough will progress into the Plains during the morning and afternoon. By Monday evening and Monday night, a large area of precipitation is expected from southwest KS into central KS as the deformation zone of the midlevel trough slides across the state.
1255 PM EST Sun Nov 3 2024 As high pressure to the east of the region moves further away, southerly flow will become established and increase for the early part of the week.
349 PM EST Sun Nov 3 2024 High pressure will crest over the area tonight then continue to the east on Monday.
1055 AM MST Sun Nov 3 2024 - Cold front sweeps south across the state today, bringing reinforcing colder temperatures and snowfall to higher elevations east of the Divide.
911 PM EST Sun Nov 3 2024 As high pressure to the east of the region moves further away, southerly flow will become established and increase for the early part of the week.
An upper level trough moves through the Northern Plains to give us rain showers late this afternoon into the overnight period. Rain showers should cease by the late morning as an area of high pressure moves over our region. Tonight through tomorrow: An upper trough with sufficient moisture to lift to create rain showers late this afternoon and into the overnight period. Monday night there could be some fog development with areas with clear skies as the low level moisture may get caught under the high pressure forming fog.
After 14Z MON, the low stratus should scatter out.
Issued by National Weather Service Huntsville AL 351 PM CST Sun Nov 3 2024 Ridging pattern will keep conditions quiet through this evening and into Monday. Areas west of the Mississippi River and in southeast Mississippi will see a chances of showers as the edge of the ridge encompass these areas. As the ridge shift eastward, a deepening trough near New Mexico will push a frontal boundary towards the southeast region.
536 PM CST Sun Nov 3 2024 Warm and windy conditions will persist tonight and Monday ahead of a cold front.
(This evening through Monday) High pressure will slowly move towards the east coast and remain northeast of the state through the short term, while a trough approaches from the west.
Issued by National Weather Service Huntsville AL 442 PM CST Sun Nov 3 2024 Ridging pattern will keep conditions quiet through this evening and into Monday. Areas west of the Mississippi River and in southeast Mississippi will see a chances of showers as the edge of the ridge encompass these areas. As the ridge shift eastward, a deepening trough near New Mexico will push a frontal boundary towards the southeast region.
Strong high pressure over the New England states continues to ridge southward along the eastern seaboard, across Florida and into the Gulf of Mexico. In the tropics, the National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen located in the central Caribbean.
The highest probabilities are across western Merced and Fresno Counties.
Warm and windy conditions will persist tonight and Monday ahead of a cold front.
By daybreak on Monday, the parent longwave trough out west across the Four-Corners region will continue ejecting eastward into the Rockies and eventually emerge out over the Southern Plains by the midday timeframe.
615 PM EST Sun Nov 3 2024 High pressure will extend into the area from the northeast.
352 PM MST Sun Nov 3 2024 - Some mountain snow today with colder temperatures behind a cold front.
Lingering rain and snow showers Sunday evening behind the weekends cold front will lead into a very cold night for the Silver State. Strong NNW flow in the upstream flow of the trough exiting the region on Sunday will help to create strong surface winds over central Nevada prompting a Wind Advisory for northern Nye county and locations to the south Sunday afternoon and evening. Additional snowfall for higher elevations on Sunday fall into the 1-2 inch range with slightly higher totals for ridges and peaks in Elko county. Northerly flow continues on Monday as heights begin to rise in response to ridging attempting to build into the SW CONUS.
510 PM CST Sun Nov 3 2024 - Chances of light rain showers and thunderstorms persist through Monday evening as a cold front continues to push through the region.
With an upper-level ridge centered over Florida and a deepening low pressure system over the Southern Rockies tonight, southwesterly flow is in place through most of the depth of the atmosphere. Near the surface, high pressure is displaced over the Northeast U. Adjusted near-term weather elements including nudging overnight temps warmer with steady southerly winds and increasing low cloud cover, as well as adding the slight chance POPs for the whole area after Noon tomorrow. /NF/ Ridging pattern will keep conditions quiet through this evening and into Monday. Areas west of the Mississippi River and in southeast Mississippi will see a chances of showers as the edge of the ridge encompass these areas. As the ridge shift eastward, a deepening trough near New Mexico will push a frontal boundary towards the southeast region.
Showers will finish later today and ridging will build in the area tonight. This ridging will help clear cloud cover tonight with mostly clear skies expected.
620 PM EST Sun Nov 3 2024 As high pressure to the east of the region moves further away, southerly flow will become established and increase for the early part of the week.
336 PM CST Sun Nov 3 2024 - Chances of light rain showers and thunderstorms persist through Monday evening as a cold front continues to push through the region.
However, most areas will remain dry and warm with high temps in the low to mid 80s.
(This afternoon through Monday) Key Messages: - A wedge will continue positioned over the area through Monday, with increased cloud cover and cooler daytime high temperatures. An upper high is presently situated over the W Atlantic and the FL peninsula. A deep upper trough over the Rocky Mountains will shift E to the Central Plains over the next 36 hours. A high pressure ridge will continue from the mid-Atlantic states across the state of GA, with the associated wedge bringing continued low clouds and cool daytime high temperatures (still about 5 degrees above normal in most areas). Patchy fog will be possible again tonight, most likely in areas with the lowest ceilings. Low temperatures Monday night will range from the mid 50s in the NE to the lower to mid 60s in the S.
1259 AM EST Mon Nov 4 2024 High pressure will extend into the area from the northeast. High pressure centered just north of New England will continue to ridge southward and into the southeastern U. Lows tonight should range from the low 50s north to the low 60s south. Highs will be in the low to mid 70s with lows in the upper 50s to low 60s. Key Message(s): - Midweek: The first chance at significant rainfall in a month A change in the upper level pattern will occur as the axis of an upper ridge shifts east this week.
High pressure ridging continues today and into tonight continuing onshore flow and low level moisture over the area. Overnight temperatures will be in the low 60s over southeast Georgia and mid to upper 60s over Northeast Florida staying slightly warmer along the coast. Moisture will be lacking a bit Monday as another inverted coastal trough develops.
- Cold front arrives Monday night, with cooler conditions Tuesday through the end of the week. However, as the main upper level trough approaches west Texas early Monday morning, additional showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop between 2 AM and sunrise along or just west of our forecast area, then move east, affecting locations mainly north of Interstate 10, with the best chances across the Big Country.
This is due to a pressure gradient between an advancing upstream trough and ridging centered just downstream. Renewed convection is forecast to develop today over the Southern Plains with squally weather advancing eastward into the Lower Mississippi Valley tonight. This activity should be in the vicinity of the Mississippi River Tuesday morning and afternoon, its progress slowed by the ridge to our east. Low-level advection may result in a couple light showers by Tuesday afternoon, mainly across west Alabama based on the current forecast; however, ~20 percent rain chances may need to be expanded eastward given the broad nature of the low-level advection pattern and some signal from CAMs. This will result in a high temperature gradient from the lower 70s or even a few upper 60s where clouds persist the longest, to lower 80s where clouds clear earlier.
Temperatures overperformed by a degree or two today and it looks like that will be the case again tomorrow, so expect similarly warmer than normal high temperatures tomorrow afternoon.
117 AM EST Mon Nov 4 2024 High pressure will provide dry weather and a warming trend through Tuesday.
The overall pattern is almost a carbon copy from yesterday with a deep trough over the western CONUS and upper level ridging in place over the southeast.
1216 AM EST Mon Nov 4 2024 High pressure will crest over the area tonight then continue to the east on Monday. A warm front will lift across the area Monday night into Tuesday.
- Cold air behind the front and some additional snowfall will keep afternoon highs suppressed again Monday and morning lows Tuesday will be well below freezing across the region.
320 AM EST Mon Nov 4 2024 High pressure will extend into the area from the northeast. High pressure centered over New England ridging into the southeastern US. Isentropic lift is evident on the southern side of the ridging high this morning leading to some light showers in Georgia along the Savannah River. These clouds will keep temperatures near seasonal average across the northwest, in the low 70s to mid 70s in the southeast. Upper level ridge off the southeast coast with trough in the midwest. Stayed close to the consensus for temperatures, cooler northwest of CAE. Lows in the low to mid 60s. Upper level ridge flattens over the eastern CONUS with deep low in the Desert Southwest.
The low level jet will cause increased moisture convergence underneath the right entrance region of a jet streak centered over the Upper Midwest causing a notable increase ascent over the CWA. The chances for showers and scattered thunderstorms will continue into Monday afternoon, though forcing will be weak during this time period Another round of showers and thunderstorms will flare up on Monday evening as an upper trough approaches the area from the west. A line of storms is expected to develop ahead of cold front that will move into western Missouri during the day. At this point the rainfall totals do not look as impressive as they move east across the eastern part of the CWA on Monday night and Tuesday as the upper trough and attendant front finally moves across the CWA.
342 AM EST Mon Nov 4 2024 Strong high pressure across New England ridging across the forecast area, will move off the East Coast over the next few days.
356 AM EST Mon Nov 4 2024 High pressure will provide dry weather and a warming trend through Tuesday.
Current Setup: A deep upper level trough extends down into the four corners this afternoon with plumes of both the Gulf of Mexico and California moisture advecting north. The latest morning update has had to trim PoPs significantly, while the moisture is certainly available, the lack of forcing and strong subsidence in the lower levels has lead to less falling precipitation. This afternoon/evening: This afternoon the low level jet increases and shifts north which will bring the ongoing rain to our southeast into portions of NW WI. Winds across Lake Superior will also turn more easterly helping to generate some terrain induced lift along the higher elevations of the North Shore for additional rain. Monday: The inverted trough over the Northern Plains that was helping to form the second area precipitation today will shift east through the night.