Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
428 AM MDT Wed Jul 31 2024 - Strong/severe storms possible today - Upper ridge returns for Thursday through the weekend with elevated fire weather conditions 07z surface analysis had cold front from central ND to eastern WY. Timing of cold front will be critical with regard to severe weather potential. Strong buoyancy/shear ahead of cold front, which could erupt into severe thunderstorms over south-central SD by midday. Temperatures will be tricky with position of cold front holding all the cards.
624 AM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024 (Today through Thursday) Deep South Texas is expected to remain under the influence of a mid- level ridge through the short term period, as such, temperatures are expected to remain slightly above seasonal and very low rain chances. An enhanced pressure gradient over the Lower Texas Coast will allow for breezy southeasterly winds today through the early evening with winds around 15-20 MPH with gusts up to 25 MPH.
High pressure builds in for Thursday with northwest flow aloft. Temperatures will climb into the 90s from the James Valley west as the upper ridge also builds back in. Thursday evening, the upper level low continues to move east and away from our area. An area of high pressure forms over the Four Corners region with a resulting ridge putting the region in northerly flow aloft.
738 AM EDT Wed Jul 31 2024 (Today through Thursday) South FL will remain under the influence of high pressure in the western Atlantic today and Thursday. Convection both days will be primarily sea-breeze driven, with the highest PoPs over the interior and over towards the Gulf coast during the afternoon and evening hours, and then overnight PoPs favoring the waters and along the east coast. High temps today and Thursday will be in the low to mid 90s. With the lower rain chances, there is a higher probability of reaching heat advisory criteria both days, with max heat indices ranging from 105-110 across the area.
An upper level ridge is centered just to the north of the forecast area. Higher heights aloft and ample supply of sunshine will lead to temperatures climbing into the low to mid 90s across most of the area.
610 AM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024 (Today through Thursday afternoon) Not much change in the short term, as the upper ridge continues to dominate. WV imagery shows the upper ridge centered over east Texas this morning, a little farther northeast than 24 hours ago. Despite this, the ridge will strengthen sufficiently to increase thicknesses locally this afternoon, adding a degree or so to yesterday's highs, resulting in the warmest day this forecast as temperatures top out ~ 8-10 F above normal. Convection today will again be diurnally-driven, orographic activity over the higher terrain. Thursday, an upper trough digging into the Great Lakes region will nudge the upper ridge northwest, re-centering it over the panhandles. Despite this, thicknesses are forecast to come down a little, and highs will be close to today's, if not a degree or so cooler.
LCH-07 Weak surface ridging remains across the peninsula this morning, while a weakness aloft extends down the E Seaboard over the state between areas of ridging centered over the S U.
514 AM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024 (Wednesday through Thursday) Heat headlines continue once again for this afternoon as high temperatures under a stout ridge will be similar to yesterday, ranging in the mid to upper 90's.
79 Previous Discussion: /Through Wednesday Night/ Hot, humid and breezy weather will continue through the middle of the week with ridging aloft and surface lee troughing across the Central High Plains. /Issued 328 AM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024/ /Thursday Onward/ August 2024 will begin on an uncomfortably hot note, with Thursday highs ranging from the mid 90s in the southeast to around 105 in the northwest beneath a strong mid level ridge.
520 AM MDT Wed Jul 31 2024 - Hot and dry weather continues, with elevated fire weather conditions across the higher terrain today into early this evening.
/16/ (Wednesday through Thursday) Heat headlines continue once again for this afternoon as high temperatures under a stout ridge will be similar to yesterday, ranging in the mid to upper 90's.
A greater threat for showers and storms arrives Wednesday as a cold front approaches the region.
616 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024 (This evening through Wednesday night) An upper level ridge is currently centered over central Mexico just southwest of Brownsville Texas. The axis of this high currently extends northeastward across the southeastern US to the Ohio River Valley. It will suppress southward the next couple days as an upper level trough currently moving through the Northern/Central Plains tracks northeastward across the northern Mississippi River Valley.
849 PM EDT Tue May 21 2024 High pressure passing overhead to the east will provide dry weather for most locations through tonight.
Forecast remains on track with near term model guidance still suggesting that a combination of coastal trough moving onshore and East coast sea breeze development an inland push through the afternoon hours will kick off scattered showers and potential isolated thunderstorms across NE FL, mainly south of the I-10 corridor.
1039 PM EDT Tue May 21 2024 There will be showers and thunderstorms as a cold front approaches the region on Wednesday.
" They wouldn't be wrong: dew points in the mid to upper 60s and almost every site in Middle TN in the low 80s at 10 am? Yeah. High pressure is dominating the area and while some heat-of-the-afternoon cumulus clouds will eventually develop, we should remain rain-free. Afternoon highs will climb into the low 90s in many spots, but we should come up short of the record 94 degrees from 1941.
755 PM EDT Tue May 21 2024 Warm high pressure will persist across the region through the middle of the week with a few showers and storms possible each afternoon over the mountains.
Tomorrow, ridging begins to shift east as an upper trough approaches from the northwest. High pressure hold strong across the Gulf though, and the cold front slows down and remains to our north and west.
633 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024 (Tonight through Wednesday night) Concur with the deterministic runs that the CWA will remain under the influence of a flat upper ridge while a series of upper disturbances move eastward just to the north. PWAT values over the CWA are predicted to remain above normal during the period, yet the lower/mid level inversion will preclude precipitation during the period.
618 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024 A ridge of high pressure will weaken tonight with a cold front bringing a return of shower and thunderstorm chances back to the Mid-South.
As the trough that recently affected Arizona now heads into the Midwest, dry westerly flow remains in its wake.
Ridge aloft builds in from the west and drier airmass building in from the east will help suppress any convective development with the sea breeze into tomorrow.
As the mid-level ridge continues to dominate the weather for the region the temperatures are going to continue to be hot. The expected high temperatures are in the range of upper 90s along the coast, the island, and the Lower Rio Grande Valley, while the rest of the region is in the triple digits. Due to the mid-level ridge in place, the middle and upper levels of the atmosphere are very stable and there is also plenty of dry air as well. As for the night time temperatures, do not expect too much relief there as the sensible low temperatures will be in the upper 70s to low 80s, but it will feel like being the in the low to mid 80s for both nights.
At night, the haze/smoke will tend to linger and settle into the lower lying areas and drainage basins so take precautions if are sensitive to smoke/haze. As the trough that recently affected Arizona now heads into the Midwest, dry westerly flow remains in its wake.
358 AM EDT Wed May 22 2024 Offshore high pressure will bring warmer temperatures for the mid to late week period. At the surface, it looks like the Piedmont trough may also aid in higher coverage inland. A cold front approaches towards the end of the period with drier air behind it. High pressure across the area will push more offshore with winds staying fairly light due to the weak pressure gradient.
Highs will be cooler than yesterday, however should still top out in the low 90s. A surface cold front will track across the region around sunrise Wednesday morning. This will brief a brief reprieve from the warmer temperatures, with much cooler highs ranging from the upper 70s to mid 80s.
- Warm and muggy conditions to be replaced by somewhat cooler and less humid air later this week into the Memorial Day weekend with some additional chances for showers and storms. The cold front stalls just east of the area Wednesday morning, and so there could still be isolated to scattered showers and storms, but the risk of severe weather is low. Broad trough remains over the region going into Thursday, so while the better moisture and energy will be to the southeast, the is still a chance of storms in our area south of US 24.
The trough will move east Wednesday morning, but the upper low will be approaching with a cold front set to move across our area. Instability will develop as the low approaches, resulting in additional showers and isolated to scattered thunderstorms continuing through Wednesday. Showers will taper off Wednesday evening as the low moves overhead, but any remaining showers will turn to snow above 4500-5000 feet. Surface winds: SE-SW 5-15 kt tonight, becoming W-NW 15-25 kt on Wednesday with gusts to 35 kt along and behind a cold front. This will bring plenty of precipitation along with a cold front. With snow showers lingering in the mountains into Thu night, total snowfall above around 7000 ft MSL will range from 6-12 inches, with the highest totals above 8000 ft.
pdf Low stratus and patchy to areas of fog will develop until just after sunrise with light easterly winds a bit higher at the coast 8-12 mph and 5-10 mph inland as weak high pressure ridging settles across the Atlantic waters just east of the GA coast.
Showers will decrease today as an area of low pressure over the region moves eastward.
Aloft there is a stubborn high pressure centered over Mexico, with ridging extending into the Gulf Coast States.
332 AM EDT Wed May 22 2024 A cold frontal boundary will bring some showers and thunderstorms later today into Thursday across the region.
A mean trough will hold over the western states this week into the holiday weekend resulting in dry conditions, mainly clear skies, seasonal temperatures, and gusty afternoon winds. Strong high pressure centered over the Pacific Ocean will continue to allow storm systems to bring weather impacts to areas mainly north of us through Thursday. The strongest winds will over the higher elevations of the Sierra, the western parts of San Bernardino County, and across southcentral Nevada where gusts of 25-35 mph are expected.
Right now, CAMs are keeping storm coverage pretty sparse for our area, so precipitation chances are on the low end for this evening. A cold front will approach from the north tomorrow, likely making its way into the southern Big Country or northern Concho Valley by the mid afternoon.
(Today through Thursday) High pressure remains in control today so any showers that develop to our west should dissipate as they work into our northwest. Tonight, the ridge will slide ever so slowly to the east and the clouds and rain will begin to make some southeastward progress.
150 AM EDT Wed May 22 2024 Warm high pressure will persist across the region through the middle of the week with a few showers and storms possible each afternoon over the mountains.
120 AM EDT Wed May 22 2024 (06Z TAFS) VFR expected through the period with high pressure ridging into the area supporting E-SE winds overnight through morning turning onshore and increasing during the afternoon with the sea breeze before diminishing during the evening and returning to E-SE overnight.
An area of high clouds is spreading southward into NorCal ahead of a strong closed low presently located near Seattle, otherwise skies remain clear.
Temperatures are forecast to dip below seasonal averages by the upcoming weekend as an upper level trough impacts the region. DialH (This evening through Wednesday) The broad tilted upper level troughing pattern over California has brought some weak offshore winds over interior areas, causing some warmer temperatures and drier conditions. Temperatures will start to trend cooler on Wednesday, but still will be relatively warmer than usual with inland max temperatures in the low 80s to high 70s, as coastal areas will see temperatures in the upper 50s to 60s.
346 AM EDT Wed May 22 2024 High pressure will dominate the region through early Thursday keeping fair and dry conditions in place along with warming temperatures.
- A cold front Thursday night could be accompanied by northwest winds gusting up to 40 to 50 mph.
High pressure will continue today through Thursday, with high temperatures remaining in the 90s along the coast to around 105 across the Brush Country.
1149 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024 (This evening through Wednesday night) An upper level ridge is currently centered over central Mexico just southwest of Brownsville Texas. The axis of this high currently extends northeastward across the southeastern US to the Ohio River Valley. It will suppress southward the next couple days as an upper level trough currently moving through the Northern/Central Plains tracks northeastward across the northern Mississippi River Valley.
Lows will range from the low 70s across the Delta to the mid 60s in the Golden Triangle area. The high pressure and increasing low-level humidity overnight will lead to a chance for fog centered on the Pine Belt in southeast MS early Wednesday morning.
Unsettled weather is expected to continue into Thursday with coverage of storms limited as well as the chance for severe weather on the lower side. QPF amounts will be the highest across southern Arkansas where the axis of heaviest rainfall is expected. with overnight lows dropping into the lower 60s to lower 70s.
(Now through Wednesday) Upper level ridging will continue to extend from the western Gulf of Mexico and into our region through Wednesday afternoon. Rain chances remain almost nil with the upper ridge remaining the dominant feature aloft over our region. Lows tonight are forecast to range in the lower to mid 60s over inland communities and in the mid 60s to near 70 degrees along the immediate coast and beaches. Another warm day is anticipated on Wednesday with high temperatures once again ranging in the upper 80s to around 90 degrees over most locations along and north of I-10 and in the lower to mid 80s along the immediate coast and beaches.
1148 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024 (Rest of tonight) A 500-mb ridge (which was aligned across the TN Valley earlier this evening) will progress southeastward overnight, with WSW flow aloft predicted to increase into the 30-40 knot range by sunrise.
We have issued a Frost Advisory for early Thursday morning across Northern El Paso County, with clearing skies overnight allowing for lows to dip into the lower 30s. As convection slides east this evening, cold front drops south through the plains, bringing a brief period of gusty winds behind the boundary, before subsiding after midnight. On Wednesday, wave departs with weak upper ridging across Colorado by afternoon.
1215 AM EDT Wed May 22 2024 High pressure will shift offshore bringing warmer temperatures for the mid to late week period. A stalling cold front and passing disturbances aloft will bring rain chances starting Fri and continuing into the upcoming Memorial holiday weekend. HIgh pressure still to our north, bringing a dewpoint-suppressing NE wind (well, outside of the seabreeze, that is). The high will be retreating tonight leaving behind some light and variable winds and the stage seems set for a little fog, though vsby restrictions may only be limited to aviation, i.
Hodographs show a bit more linear depiction, but initially they may be able to remain curved in the low levels.
1210 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024 (This evening through Wednesday night) Tonight will be a fairly quiet night weather wise as the main impacts will be a cold front move through and bring temperatures back into the mid 40s to mid 50s by Wednesday morning. As far as Wednesday goes for highs, it's a little up in the air, as we have a battle between warmer air quickly returning, or a cold moist pocket lingering in our south and east. Overall, the forecast has trended towards the warmer solution. Additionally, if the cooler/moist solution pans out for Wednesday night, we could get enough moisture to saturate to the top of the inversion, and there is ample CAPE (>3000 J/kg) above the inversion, that we could get some overnight storms in the southeast.
1231 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024 (This evening through Thursday) An upper ridge is over the southeast part of the U. with an upper low over the northern Plains. The upper low will move east as the ridge in the south remains stationary. Several low pressure systems will move across the northern U. The upper ridge will be pushed south late Thursday. Strong south winds continue across the area this afternoon ahead of a cold front in Oklahoma. Lows tonight will be in the lower 60s to the mid 70s and in the 60s Wednesday night.
KBYX radar is only detecting a few showers near the Lower Keys, otherwise, it remains echo-free. With dew points hanging steady in the lower 70s, it has been a seasonably warm night. The best chance for rain (only a slight chance forecast) will be over the next day or so as enough moisture may be available in the lower levels to possibly support a few showers and a thunderstorm or two along mesoscale boundary collisions. Ridging will begin to build in through the latter half of the week across the Florida Peninsula and the Keys, bringing a much drier airmass across the forecast area by the end of the week through the weekend.
Shower and thunderstorm activity will be largely tied to a cold front well to our north and west today.
Mid level troughing offshore the southeast U. is nudged seaward as ridging extends across the Gulf of Mexico and over Florida. Ridging in place promotes warming temperatures and drying conditions today and tomorrow. Afternoon temperatures warm into the low 90s across the interior today, remaining in the mid to upper 80s along and east of I-95.
242 AM EDT Wed May 22 2024 High pressure will dominate the region through early Thursday keeping fair and dry conditions in place along with warming temperatures.
1112 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024 (Tonight through Wednesday night) Concur with the deterministic runs that the CWA will remain under the influence of a flat upper ridge while a series of upper disturbances move eastward just to the north. PWAT values over the CWA are predicted to remain above normal during the period, yet the lower/mid level inversion will preclude precipitation during the period.
A dry high pressure center will prevail across the state bringing us this fabulous weather. Winds will be light and variable today underneath this high. This high pressure center will shift off to the east tonight and a light southerly flow will develop in its wake. This will start lee cyclogenesis across the high plains of Colorado. Right now the exact position of the dryline is still a little uncertain, but a general compromise along the Highway 283 corridor looks like a reasonable approximation for now. The potential combination of the highs in the 80s and dewpoints potentially in the mid 60s could lead to 2500 to 3500 J/kg of CAPE developing east of the dryline.
High pressure at the surface and ridging aloft will continue to suppress any appreciable precipitation chances through Wednesday.
The typical low lying areas may fall into the lower 30s and may see frost.
1125 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024 - Storm chances will be greatly influenced by the position of the cold front and timing of storm initiation. Warm air and moisture advection into the region continues ahead the approaching cold front. Now, it is just a matter of how fast the cold front progresses across eastern KS and how long it takes for storms to initiate across the cold front. If the cold front progresses further eastward, those behind the front may not see any storms regardless if there are within the outlined risk areas. Multiple perturbations will eject from a broad large- scale trough in the West, leading to multiple chances for convection through the holiday weekend.
439 AM MDT Wed May 22 2024 - Warmer and drier today and Thursday, with elevated to critical fire weather conditions possible by Thursday.
618 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024 (Today through Thursday) 500 mb high pressure centered along the upper east coast of Mexico, and extended over the BRO CWFA, will remain the dominant weather feature in play through the period.
Heavy Snow in the Higher Terrain Across Lemhi County into. The strong low pressure system is currently moving into Washington this morning. The low is still anticipated to slide towards southern Idaho by tonight then lift towards the northeast on Thursday over Yellowstone National Park. The path of this low will bring widespread precipitation to the Northern Rockies with most locations experiencing rainfall totals in excess of a half of an inch over the next 48hrs. The bulk of the precipitation will be across Lemhi county into southwest Montana by Thursday morning during the lowest snow levels causing significant snowfall.
600 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024 (Today through Thursday) High pressure remains in control today so any showers that develop to our west should dissipate as they work into our northwest. Tonight, the ridge will slide ever so slowly to the east and the clouds and rain will begin to make some southeastward progress.
Zonal flow remains in place over Arizona today, keeping temperatures about the same as yesterday, maybe just a degree or two warmer.
(Now through Thursday) Upper level ridging will remain in place over the area through Thursday. The subsidence beneath the ridge will maintain a dry pattern with mostly clear skies and above normal warmth. High pressure over the western Atlantic will maintain a light southeasterly flow. Lows tonight will be in the low/mid 60s inland to around 70 near the coast.
645 AM EDT Wed May 22 2024 Offshore high pressure will bring warmer temperatures for the mid to late week period. At the surface, it looks like the Piedmont trough may also aid in higher coverage inland. A cold front approaches towards the end of the period with drier air behind it. High pressure across the area will push more offshore with winds staying fairly light due to the weak pressure gradient.
Near sunset through overnight low chances for strong to severe storms will continue this time in association with the cold front progressing east.
Surface temperatures across the valley regions and high plains as of 9Z are in the low 30s to low 40s, with the warmest temperatures along the North Platte River Valley. Colder temperatures remain in the higher terrain, where low to middle 20s have been observed. As the day presses on, we will see a quiet weather day with mostly sunny skies and warmer temperatures. We will transition to a weak zonal flow aloft across our cwa, which will assist with afternoon highs reaching the 60s to middle 70s for the lower elevations. The highest areas of confidence reside west of the Laramie Range, where wind gusts up to 30-40mph are anticipated. The upper level low center will be located across north-central WY by 12Z Thursday. Additionally, there will be increasing cloud cover, CAA from a cold front, and precipitation for our western zones.
Today: The low bringing us light to moderate rainfall is making its way northeast through the Northland.