Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
At 9 AM MDT upper low clearly seen in eastern OR on water vapor satellite imagery, with moisture streaming northward from eastern NV into south-central Idaho, then into Baker County and Harney County, and relatively dry air near the OR/ID border. The upper low is moving slowly eastward and the wrap-around moisture will bring showers back across all CWA zones tonight, with snow level 3500 to 4200 feet MSL. Then drying from the west Monday as the low continues eastward, but westerly winds will increase, especially in the central Snake Basin.
High temperatures will top out in the low to mid 80s. Tonight will be a continuation of the active pattern as there will be upper level ridging over the area however minor short waves will continue rotating through the pattern. Moisture remains on the high side as the airmass overhead hasn't really changed all that much over the past couple of days.
As mid level vort max lifts into the northern Plains, upper trough axis becomes negatively tilted, swinging into the central Plains by 00Z.
With the easterly flow, Southwest Florida will reach the lower 90s for the afternoon highs and the Atlantic sea breeze will help keep Southeast Florida in the mid to upper 80s. While the thunderstorms should be more of the garden variety, there is some cooler air aloft which could allow for some stout convection where boundary collisions occur.
With the sunshine during the afternoon, temperatures in the Rio Grande Valley will approach 100F, but with the lower to mid 70s dewpoints, will expect Heat Indices that will reach close to 105F.
A cold front will work its way through the region late Monday and Monday night.
There will likely be a bit of lull behind this main band, but as the atmosphere recharges with some heating (afternoon MLCAPES will likely approach 1000 J/kg at least in the across the south/central) and the axis of the upper trough continues to move east over our area, we will see additional showers and thunderstorms around during the afternoon hours.
758 PM EDT Sun May 5 2024 The area will remain between an inland trough and Atlantic high pressure with warmer than normal temperatures through mid week. A cold frontal passage will then bring cooler and drier weather for late week and this weekend. A weak ridge will build up through the Southeast into early Mon and therefore expect the possibility of a few showers over the coast toward morning and possibility of fog or low clouds, mainly where rain fell, but otherwise mainly quiet overnight. High temps for Mon will be in the low to mid 80s. Highlights: *Much above normal temps *Little to no severe storm/flood risk Confidence: *Moderate to High Details: High pressure offshore and an inland trough will prevail at the surface along with periodic weak disturbances aloft.
Tonight through Monday night Upper low continues to progress east out of the forecast area tonight with showers and thunderstorms gradually dissipating under northwest flow. Additional snow totals of 2-4 inches are expected around 6500 feet with the high elevations expected to receive an additional 6 to 10 inches. Overnight low temperatures reside in the low 20s to low 30s. A brief break in showers is expected Monday morning under rising heights as what could be argued as a weak transient ridge moves across the forecast area. Next upper wave brings another cold front into the region from the northwest beginning Monday afternoon. Daytime high temperatures reside in the low 50s to low 60s with overnight lows in the low 20s to low 30s.
At the same time, there are a couple of low level inhibition zones with warmer and relatively drier air. Short Term Update - Surface winds will remain moderate out of the east due to the broad ridge to our north holding steady.
A strong low pressure system will cross the region this afternoon and evening bringing strong, gusty winds and scattered showers. Showers have developed along and ahead of a cold front pushing eastward this evening. Updates were sent earlier to cover the higher coverage of precipitation this evening.
A strong low pressure system will cross the region this afternoon and evening bringing strong, gusty winds and scattered showers. A strong low pressure system continued to move across the western states and Arizona Sunday afternoon. For the remainder of the afternoon and into the evening look for these strong winds to continue as the low slowly heads eastward across the area. In addition, strong upward motion associated with the low will draw in just enough moisture for a shower threat.
Even this thunder risk is on the lower side, as mentioned in the previous discussion, but it is still worth mentioning based on the few hundred J/kg of MUCAPE in the forecast soundings. With strong WAA in place, tomorrow will likely be the warmest day of the period with highs in the low to mid 70s.
- IFR and possible LIFR CIGs/VSBY tonight - Conditional probability of high impact thunderstorms tomorrow MVFR and IFR conditions will be prominent tonight with KHUT, KICT and KCNU the most likely terminals to see the lower CIGs and VSBY.
Wet, warm conditions are anticipated to continue throughout the week as an elongated trough builds to our west and deep southwest flow remains. - Convection will likely redevelop south of I-70 Monday afternoon/evening, along a stalled frontal boundary as a low pressure system passing to our south. Probability of precipitation will remain low between Pittsburgh and I-80, likely due to ridging over the Great Lakes filtering drier air from the north.
Partly cloudy skies prevail for the remainder of the overnight period with mostly light and variable to E-SE winds and lows once again in the mid to upper 60s, with immediate coastal areas as high as the lower 70s. As we go into the work week ridging will start to push overhead.
Moisture remains on the high side as the airmass overhead hasn't really changed all that much over the past couple of days.
-Warmer Monday as southeast winds increase with near advisory winds across the northwest.
Expect warmer temperatures on Monday, with highs in the mid 80s to lower 90s.
A cold front will drift south of the forecast area early this morning. The southward movement of the front will end as a weak ridge temporarily builds over the region. The energy will also flatten the ridge and pull deeper moisture northward. Latest model data is keeping the higher probabilities for showers/storms today south of I-70. This high will try to push drier air southward, keeping the showers northward movement at bay. NBM probs for measurable rainfall are further north, but the focus for the higher probs are also south of I-70. KEY MESSAGES: -Warm front will bring the next risk for showers and storms late Tuesday and Tuesday night.
Today begins a warming trend as warmer/drier air moves in through the low levels (especially over western parts of the area) with the aforementioned south/westerly winds.
A strong low pressure system will exit the region overnight with gradually decreasing winds and clearing skies. Showers have developed along and ahead of a cold front pushing eastward this evening. Updates were sent earlier to cover the higher coverage of precipitation this evening.
High pressure remains in control of the sensible weather at the surface. With the system passing further north, the highest pops should be across far N GA this afternoon/evening.
(Today and tonight) The leading edge of height falls was already overspreading our area early this morning ahead of a potent upper low becoming negatively tilted over the Four Corners. Otherwise, strong heating within the LL thermal ridge may be enough to temporarily breach the cap in the far southeast Texas Panhandle, but any storms here should quickly exit our area within 35+ knots of steering flow. By late afternoon, a Pacific front will glide E-SE across our northwest zones before sweeping out of the Rolling Plains after midnight ahead of lighter breezes and much cooler lows in the 40s and 50s.
356 AM EDT Mon May 6 2024 A cold front will slowly move through the region today sweeping away the clouds, showers and any fog. High pressure builds into the region but only for a short stay Tuesday. A few showers have popped up in the Finger Lakes and Oneida County ahead of a slow moving cold front. Tonight drier air comes in with high pressure from the northwest. Lows in the low and mid 40s CNY to around 50 in the Wyoming Valley of NEPA. The high pressure system moves into eastern NY Tuesday. Low pressure over Lake Erie will drift ENE Tuesday night, with a weak warm front lifting across the area.
Tuesday, the closed low that brought the boundary through the Tri- State area, will move up into the Dakotas and eastern Montana.
------------------------------------------------------------------- A cold front will drift south of the forecast area early this morning. The southward movement of the front will end as a weak ridge temporarily builds over the region. The energy will also flatten the ridge and pull deeper moisture northward. Latest model data is keeping the higher probabilities for showers/storms today south of I-70. This high will try to push drier air southward, keeping the showers northward movement at bay. NBM probs for measurable rainfall are further north, but the focus for the higher probs are also south of I-70. KEY MESSAGES: -Warm front will bring the next risk for showers and storms late Tuesday and Tuesday night.
Despite the high clouds, patchy fog development remains possible until daybreak across the Suwannee Valley and far inland areas of SE GA.
Ridging returns over the weekend with warmer temperatures expected. The low that brought the very strong winds and rain/snow to the region has started to move further to the north and east of the area early this morning. While the center of the low will be a bit more removed from our area, the pressure gradient doesn't fully relax and today will once again be on the breezy side.
Warmer temperatures are expected across the state on Monday with highs climbing above 80 F in many locations.
The clouds aided a steady temperature curve overnight as the entire area still remained in the low 60s as of 2 AM. A broad baroclinic leaf of cirrus cloud formed across from New Mexico across western Kansas and Nebraska while the upper synoptic trough approached the central rockies. A pacific cold front is poised to overtake the dryline by about 18-19z/1-2pm. Despite the warm afternoon, the diurnal swing is large â to the tune of 40 degrees as temperatures are forecast in the 40s over much of the area Tuesday night as a weak dry cold front moves through the area establishing breezy north wind.
Amplified trough is currently aligned through the Intermountain West while rapid moisture return is underway downstream across the southern Plains. 00z upper air data sampled extremes within both the wind field associated with the trough and the source region of moisture return. A complicating and more uncertain feature is the weak warm front aligned along the Red River valley its evolution through the day. Short term CAM ensemble guidance have good agreement on a notable strengthening of the low to mid level wind fields between 00z-06z firmly across the forecast area and, while the exact impacts are unknown, the likelihood for significant severe weather is expected to accompany this evolution.
(Today through Tuesday) High pressure continues to dominate the benign and warm weather pattern across South Florida. Forecasted afternoon highs will top out in the mid 80s to near 90 degrees across southwestern Florida with highs in the low to mid 80s across the eastern half of the area thanks to the persistent onshore flow. The overnight lows will trend in the low to mid 70s along the east coast while interior locations dip into the mid to upper 60s.
Upper ridging will move east of the area today allowing vorticity maxima to move into the region. Tuesday and Tuesday night: A weak and somewhat flat upper ridge will help to suppress showers and storms for much of the area.
Tuesday morning as our current low pressure system moves into eastern MT, it will strengthen pushing wrap around moisture across the Continental Divide.
As the work week gets underway, high pressure continues to have the spotlight. The mid-levels remain drier and a little cooler, suggesting more stability and continued challenges to convective growth. They are slightly higher across a small section of the Nature Coast, but still on the low side overall. Stronger ridging is forecast to build in, favoring more subsidence to limit convective growth.
Temperatures are hovering in the upper 70s to near 80, with dewpoints in the lower 70s, and winds on land from the east to southeast around 15 mph. Surface analysis depicts high pressure centered over the western Atlantic, with the Keys remaining in moderate ESE flow along the southwestern flank of this high. Aloft, mid-level ridging over the Gulf of Mexico continues to dominate our local weather regime. Mostly clear, very warm and mainly dry weather will prevail through the upcoming work week, as mid level ridging persists over the Gulf of Mexico.
Long range guidance suggests that a broad upper level low over the north-central CONUS (mid-week) will fracture/divide into two distinct features (late this week), the eastern of which will progress eastward across the Great Lakes/New England and the western of which will retrograde WSW to the 4-Corners/ Intermountain West. beneath an amplifying upper level ridge along the Pacific Coast.
Will continue to monitor for that potential in any stronger storm development with any clearing along/near the cold front boundary lifting northward Tuesday afternoon. Split flow for the remainder of the period with mainly northerly flow aloft keeping the area seasonal or slightly warmer with little predictability for rain chances.
711 AM EDT Mon May 6 2024 A slow moving cold front will bring scattered showers and possibly a few thunderstorms across south central PA this afternoon. The front will come back north as a warm front late Tuesday through Tuesday night, bringing more widespread showers and storms.
- Strong low pressure will bring showers and thunderstorms to the area. A marginal risk (1 out of 5) for severe storms extends southwest of a line from Miller to Mobridge.
After a brief break of dry weather, an upper-level disturbance and cold front approaches from the northwest Monday afternoon. 1 to 3 inches of snow are expected in the high mountain areas of Northern Elko County and the Ruby Mountains/E. Showers will linger for part of the day Tuesday as a broad long- wave trough encompasses over much of the western U. Daytime high temperatures reside in the low 50s to low 60s with overnight lows in the low 20s to low 30s.
As the line of storms pushes eastward into the evening the hail threat should subside slightly, but the low-level jet will likely increase in strength and shear vectors could become more favorably oriented for QLCS tornado development.
A dry weather pattern is expected all week with a nearly stationary low pressure system situated just to the north of the region. The upper level low that moved across northern portions of the region yesterday is now ejecting northeastward into the Central Rockies before reaching the Northern Plains later today. However, the Desert Southwest is expected to remain under broad troughing aloft over the next several days, possibly the entire week.
With cloud cover, expect temperatures to not reach freezing for most of the area, but the Shasta and the Scott Valleys in Siskiyou County still are showing a high chance (80%) of reaching freezing.
The Florida Keys remain in a region of weak, broad, mid-level ridging extending from the Yucatan Peninsula to the Mid-Atlantic. Meanwhile a strong, negatively tilted trough east of the Rockies continues to progress eastward, and will likely produce a severe weather outbreak across the Plains today. GOES-16 visible satellite is highlighting partly cloudy skies, allowing temperatures to creep into the lower to mid 80s across the island chain. High pressure over the western North Atlantic will maintain moderate to occasionally fresh east to southeast breezes through midweek. Breezes will turn to the southeast and south and relax later in the week, as the high shifts southward and weakens over the western Atlantic.
230 AM PDT Mon May 6 2024 Drier, warmer conditions return this week with gusty north to east winds mid-week.
Increased insolation should allow for high temperatures to warm into the low 80s across the Lower Texas beaches to upper 90s across the Rio Grande Plains. with the exception being across the Lower Texas beaches where heat indices will be in the 90s. Temperatures and heat index values on Tuesday will be 2-7 degrees warmer than Monday afternoon, with high temperatures likely reaching 100 degrees across the Rio Grande Plains and heat indices above 110 degrees across portions of the region. For the Lower Texas beaches, a moderate risk of rip currents will prevail through Tuesday.
Shower and thunderstorm chances are expected to become isolated into this afternoon as an upper-level disturbance moves away from the Lower Mississippi Valley.
730 AM EDT Mon May 6 2024 (Today through Tuesday) High pressure continues to dominate the benign and warm weather pattern across South Florida. Forecasted afternoon highs will top out in the mid 80s to near 90 degrees across southwestern Florida with highs in the low to mid 80s across the eastern half of the area thanks to the persistent onshore flow. The overnight lows will trend in the low to mid 70s along the east coast while interior locations dip into the mid to upper 60s.
431 AM PDT Mon May 6 2024 Dry and much warmer through Tuesday with the marine layer becoming shallower.
607 AM CDT Mon May 6 2024 (Today and tonight) The leading edge of height falls was already overspreading our area early this morning ahead of a potent upper low becoming negatively tilted over the Four Corners. Otherwise, strong heating within the LL thermal ridge may be enough to temporarily breach the cap in the far southeast Texas Panhandle, but any storms here should quickly exit our area within 35+ knots of steering flow. By late afternoon, a Pacific front will glide E-SE across our northwest zones before sweeping out of the Rolling Plains after midnight ahead of lighter breezes and much cooler lows in the 40s and 50s.
237 AM MST Mon May 6 2024 A dry weather pattern is expected all week with a nearly stationary low pressure system situated just to the north of the region. The upper level low that moved across northern portions of the region yesterday is now ejecting northeastward into the Central Rockies before reaching the Northern Plains later today. However, the Desert Southwest is expected to remain under broad troughing aloft over the next several days, possibly the entire week.
A quiet start to the morning, thanks to a high pressure system dominating the weather.
557 AM EDT Mon May 6 2024 A slow moving cold front will bring scattered showers and possibly a few thunderstorms across south central PA this afternoon. The front will come back north as a warm front late Tuesday through Tuesday night, bringing more widespread showers and storms.
652 AM CDT Mon May 6 2024 Shower and thunderstorm chances are expected to become isolated into this afternoon as an upper-level disturbance moves away from the Lower Mississippi Valley.
As this trough makes its way towards the Great Lakes, a cold front will develop ahead of the trough axis and track south towards the southeast US.
942 AM PDT Mon May 6 2024 Dry and warmer, with gusty winds from the west over the mountains and into the deserts today and Tuesday.
Ridging returns over the weekend with warmer temperatures expected. Clearing skies are being observed this morning across northern Arizona in the wake of last night's trough passage. Temperatures will remain cooler than normal today with west to northwest winds gusting 25 to 30 mph. The low that brought the very strong winds and rain/snow to the region has started to move further to the north and east of the area early this morning. While the center of the low will be a bit more removed from our area, the pressure gradient doesn't fully relax and today will once again be on the breezy side.
The highest chances will remain over interior portions of Southwest Florida where the Atlantic and Gulf sea breeze boundaries interact with each other. High temperatures on Tuesday will rise into the mid 80s across the east coast metro areas, and into the lower 90s across interior portions of Southwest Florida.
Above average temperatures with moderately dry conditions continue today as a high pressure system situated in the Atlantic keeps the southeasterly flow over the area.
Cooler today with less wind, although still breezy at times, especially to the east of Tucson.
305 PM EDT Mon May 6 2024 A secondary cold front will approach the area late this afternoon and cross the region this evening. High pressure will then build over the area from the northwest later tonight into Tuesday.
351 PM EDT Mon May 6 2024 High pressure builds into the region tonight, bringing beautiful weather conditions through Tuesday evening. Radiational cooling will develop, dropping temperatures into the low to mid 40s across the region. Tuesday will be a wonderful spring day, with high pressure overhead and temperatures in the 70s across the region. Sunny skies will persist into the afternoon hours before clouds move overhead from the SW ahead of an approaching warm front. NW flow from the high shifts to SW during the evening hours as a warm front approaches from the SW. Showers along this front will have to battle dry air in place from the high, limiting rainfall chances before midnight. After midnight, the center of the low moves into the region and rain showers span the CWA.
A warm front will bring unimpactful precipitation across northern California and southern Oregon today. After the passage of a cold front this morning, winds have shifted to the west and lowered, but steep seas keep conditions hazardous to small craft through late this morning. A thermal trough will strengthen Tuesday afternoon with gusty north winds and steep wind-driven seas developing, highest south of Cape Blanco.
At the sfc, high pressure over the western Atlantic will maintain a moist southerly flow.
Despite a decent breeze being observed at our land-based and marine-based observing platforms, dew points in the lower 70s are making it feel a bit uncomfortable outside this afternoon. A mid-level ridge extending from the Gulf of Mexico northeastward to the Mid-Atlantic states will result in a blocking pattern setting up across much of the Eastern United States. Global ensemble numerical weather prediction guidance suggests this ridge will eventually weaken, bringing an upper- level trough eastward by the end of the week.
- Continued chances for showers with cooler temperatures through the end of the week. The triple point associated with the low that continue to spin over the Dakotas should remain just to the south of our forecast area to start the day, but is expected to lift northward into western Wisconsin by the afternoon.
-Complex mid-week weather pattern with rain chances increasing on Tuesday and multiple passing low pressures keeping rain in the forecast through the end of the week. The trough heads northeast and develops a closed 500 mb low that moves into the Dakotas by 12z Tue.
(This evening through Tuesday) The upper closed low will continue to spin over the Northern Plains tonight with 80 to 100 knot 250mb winds and 50 to 70 knot 500mb westerlies overhead. The Pacific front will be east of the forecast area by this evening with a weak surface cold front passing south through the area overnight. Tomorrow, the nearly stationary upper low will continue to spin over the Northern Plains.