Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Presently, broad high pressure over western ND is in the process of propagating to the southeast. Despite CAMs showing decent forecast composite reflectivity, rain totals are projected to remain low overall due to fairly robust dry air in the lower levels. Skies behind the cold frontal boundary are expected to clear from northwest to southeast through the day.
402 AM EDT Wed Oct 23 2024 Above normal temperatures will continue today ahead of a cold front that moves through the area this afternoon. High pressure will lead to dry conditions with a temporary cool down Thursday, followed by a warm up for the end of the week.
(Tonight through Thursday) Radiational cooling has already started in spots, your normal cooler spots. 16 Previous short-term discussion: (This afternoon through Wednesday) With the increase in low-level moisture, we'll be warmer tonight but still have fairly good radiational cooling to drop down into the upper 40s to low 50s. Wednesday will be very similar to today, and even warmer by a couple of degrees. Many locations across the west and southwestern counties should top out at 85 degrees or slightly warmer. Upper heights will increase slightly due to the influence of the dominant 500mb ridge stretched out across Mexico and into the western Gulf of Mexico. We'll start to see an upper trough attempt to move southward by late in the day on Wednesday over the Great Lakes States, with a dry surface front moving southward into Tennessee by Wednesday evening.
Temperatures will be slightly cooler behind the front this afternoon, topping out in the mid 60s, which is still a few degrees above average for this time of year. Dry weather will prevail through the remainder of the week and weekend, as a ridge moves across the western CONUS into the Central Plains.
208 AM MDT Wed Oct 23 2024 KEY MESSAGES: - A cold front moving across the region today will cause minimal impacts but some light mountain snow, especially in central Idaho.
416 AM EDT Wed Oct 23 2024 A cold front crosses this evening into tonight, then cool, dry weather returns Thursday.
1232 AM CDT Wed Oct 23 2024 (Tonight through Wednesday night) Seasonal temperatures and rain-free conditions will prevail across Deep South Texas through the short term period as the region remains under the influence of mid-level high pressure. 4 inches across Deep South Texas, with the higher amounts closer to the immediate coast.
Westerly downslope flow has translated to another well above normal day with highs in the low to mid 80s.
348 AM EDT Wed Oct 23 2024 * Dry cold front moves in today.
(Today through Thursday afternoon) Deterministic and ensemble models depict building geopotential heights and thicknesses through tomorrow, meaning the warmer than average temperatures are expected to continue. Today, highs in the mid to upper 80s over SE NM plains, most of the Marfa Plateau and Lower Trans Pecos, and low to mid 90s most of the Permian Basin, Upper Trans Pecos, and Rio Grande basins can be expected, with 70s only in the highest elevations of the Guadalupes and Davis Mountains, and triple digit readings possible near Boquillas Canyon in the Big Bend. Tomorrow, highs soar to at least 15 degrees above average for late October as mid to upper ridging continues to build and large scale subsidence keeps skies mostly clear.
152 AM EDT Wed Oct 23 2024 Dry weather is expected to prevail through the week, as high pressure remains in control. A warming trend will continue through midweek before a dry cold front slides through Wednesday night. A second cold front moves through this weekend, followed by cool high pressure. High pressure over the southern Appalachians will maintain quiet and dry weather through Wednesday. High pressure begins to weaken tomorrow and drift southward as it does so. No significant change to the high temperature forecast with highs around 80. A weak, dry front moves through the area Wednesday night, with lower dewpoints and northerly winds behind it as high pressure briefly develops to the north.
1150 PM CDT Tue Oct 22 2024 (This evening through Wednesday Night) Benign conditions will prevail tonight into Wednesday night as the quasi-zonal flow aloft and mid level high pressure (with very dry air) dominates the local weather pattern. For tonight, the inland low temperatures will generally be in the low to mid 60s, although a few spots in and near the Piney Woods region may be closer to the upper 50s. Similar nighttime conditions are expected Wednesday night, with lows mainly in the low 60s and a chance for areas of patchy fog overnight.
Temperatures will range from the low 70s to the northeast where the warm front may not make it that far north to the mid to perhaps upper 80s in the southwest which will be in the warm sector most of the day. Thursday night the warm front will be draped across the northern CWA where MUCAPE values will be 1000-1500 J/Kg with effective shear of 40-50kts. A 50-60kt southwesterly LLJ will increase Thursday night providing strong isentropic ascent along and north of the warm front.
High pressure remains in control but continues to shift further east, which will promote southerly flow and even warmer temperatures than yesterday.
1034 PM CDT Tue Oct 22 2024 - Cooler weather is expected on Wednesday for most locations except the eastern Ozarks.
pdf The region will be between high pressure ridge to the north northwest, and remnants of former Tropical Storm Oscar to the southeast through Tonight. Weak troughs will develop in this flow, and produce the potential for a few showers. (Wednesday through Thursday night) High pressure will will be dominate the weather pattern through the period with prevailing flow shifting about to become more out of the north. High temperatures are expected to be in the lower to mid 80s through midweek with overnight low temperatures dropping down into the mid to upper 50s for inland areas and in the mid to upper 60s for coastal areas.
234 AM EDT Wed Oct 23 2024 Above normal temperatures will continue today ahead of a cold front that moves through the area this afternoon. High pressure will lead to dry conditions with a temporary cool down Thursday, followed by a warm up for the end of the week.
An area of high pressure will dominate the weather across the southwest, bringing above normal temperatures, light winds and dry conditions. An elongated ridge of high pressure over the southwestern USA and northern Mexico will bring mild fall weather for the next several days.
349 AM EDT Wed Oct 23 2024 A cold front will cross the eastern United States this evening, followed by high pressure and cooler temperatures on Thursday.
An area of high pressure will gradually strengthen through the end of the week/weekend, allowing for above normal temperatures, dry conditions, and generally light winds. A zonal flow/flat ridge continues to dominate much of the Southwest. Throughout the rest of the week this ridge will build across the area.
1237 AM EDT Wed Oct 23 2024 A weak and dry cold front will cross our area late Wednesday into Thursday with reinforcing high pressure spreading over the region in the front's wake.
205 AM EDT Wed Oct 23 2024 High pressure and dry air over the eastern US will keep the forecast dry through the week.
1229 AM CDT Wed Oct 23 2024 (This evening through Wednesday) Unseasonably warm weather will continue through the short term as the region remains under the influence of relatively flat upper ridging and associated zonal flow aloft. On Wednesday, a weakening backdoor cold front over KS/OK will attempt to work into the region, with most hi-res guidance indicating an easterly wind shift making it to the edge of the Caprock by midday. This lends some uncertainty into the high temperature forecast for Wednesday afternoon, but overall we expect slightly higher sfc-500mb layer thicknesses and modestly warmer 850mb temps to result in highs still peaking in the upper 80s to low 90s off the Caprock, with mid to upper 80s west of the escarpment.
Despite the wind direction, dew points remain in the lower to mid 70s with current temperatures in the upper 70s. Meanwhile, the high along the East Coast will weaken and retreat southwestward, settling into the Gulf of Mexico later today. The next high pressure located across the High Plains will dive east and southeast over the next couple of days. As it does, it will gradually merge with the high pressure cell over the Gulf of Mexico and build. Over the weekend the high will flex in strength as it settles in the southeast U. Lastly, despite all the high pressure cells diving into the southeast U. As the high pressure across the eastern half of the U.
139 AM EDT Wed Oct 23 2024 (Rest of today through Wednesday) Current synoptic scenario continues through the next couple of days with broad high pressure centered over the E CONUS in control of the regional weather. Expect passing showers each day embedded in the generally NE flow, gusty at times, as SoFlo remains in the SE periphery of the high. Tonight's lows will range from the low 70s over the interior and Gulf Coast, to the mid 70s over the East Coast.
- Gusty northwest winds will be in the excess of 30 mph in the wake of the cold front. On Thursday, a cold front will approach the area from the Northern Plains. On Thursday night, a cold front will move east through the area. The highest rain amounts will be along and south of Interstate 90 where there is up to a 30% of CAPES climbing into the 100-200 J/kg range. Cold front is pushing through the area late this evening with northwesterly wind gusts to around 30 knots possible after this frontal passage.
High pressure will build in behind the front, continuing those calm and dry conditions across the state.
1050 PM CDT Tue Oct 22 2024 - An elevated fire danger will develop on Wednesday behind a departing cold front as N/NW winds gust 20-25mph and minimum relative humidity values dip into the 30-35% range.
The short term forecast remains on track: High pressure has entrenched itself across the region bringing a more southerly wind and clear skies today. Overall dry and breezy conditions persist, temperatures look to trend a degree or two warmer today throughout the CWA, with dew points following suit. Temperatures are also trending several degree warmer than seasonal norms with highs in the low 80s and falling to the low to mid 70s after sunset. /OAJ/ Warm and dry weather continues as low/mid level ridging persists across the Deep South.
High pressure continues to remain in place across the Southeastern CONUS leading to clear skies. A trough is expected to move through the Ohio Valley and into the Central Appalachians late tonight through tomorrow.
A weak trough will move onshore today producing clouds and a few mainly mountain showers.
640 AM EDT Wed Oct 23 2024 A cold front will cross the eastern United States this evening, followed by high pressure and cooler temperatures on Thursday.
(Rest of Today) Tranquil weather across the Tennessee Valley region early this morning as high pressure remains the dominant feature over much of the eastern CONUS. Model soundings show a very dry profile indicative of strong subsidence from the ridge. Most locations should reach the low to mid 80s by this afternoon -- though with Min RH values dropping to 35-40 percent it should continue to feel very comfortable outside.
937 AM EDT Wed Oct 23 2024 A cold front will cross the eastern United States this evening, followed by high pressure and cooler temperatures on Thursday.
Increasing winds and at least elevated fire weather conditions Thursday due to a fast moving disturbance and cold front.
(Now through Thursday night) An upper level ridge of high pressure will extend eastward from Southern Plains across the north-central Gulf Coast through Thursday night. High pressure at the surface will also continue to extend over the forecast area and result in continued dry and very warm weather for this time of year. High temperatures will range from the middle to upper 80s with lows mainly in the middle 50s over interior sections of southeast Mississippi and southwest into south-central Alabama to the lower and middle 60s along the coast. Sea surface temperatures at beaches remain in the lower 70s.
400 AM MDT Wed Oct 23 2024 - Warmer than normal temperatures and breezy conditions continue today. - Warmer than normal and dry conditions return through the weekend. Total precipitation amounts for these more favored areas generally range from two tenths to half an inch, with the higher amounts mainly limited to the Tetons and southwestern YNP. With the arrival of cooler air this will fall as snow in the mountains and rain in the valleys and basins. Precipitation will fall as light rain farther east across the lower elevations. The afternoon will be much cooler for everyone, though with highs still peaking right around normal.
620 AM CDT Wed Oct 23 2024 - Temperatures will be warmer than normal for the rest of the week, with highs toward the end of weekend 10 to 20 degrees warmer than normal. A wide swath of stratus remains in the upper trough early this morning and could affect KATY and KABR prior to 15z when it swings over the Great Lakes. Upper ridging builds in this morning with high pressure at the sfc most of today resulting in continued above normal temperatures by 5 to 15 degrees. This trough will continue moving east through the overnight hours.
Winds have finally started to come down as the high pressure to the north weakens as moves offshore. One more day of breezy north-northeast winds today, as high pressure continues to weaken over the eastern US.
606 AM CDT Wed Oct 23 2024 (Today through Thursday afternoon) Deterministic and ensemble models depict building geopotential heights and thicknesses through tomorrow, meaning the warmer than average temperatures are expected to continue. Today, highs in the mid to upper 80s over SE NM plains, most of the Marfa Plateau and Lower Trans Pecos, and low to mid 90s most of the Permian Basin, Upper Trans Pecos, and Rio Grande basins can be expected, with 70s only in the highest elevations of the Guadalupes and Davis Mountains, and triple digit readings possible near Boquillas Canyon in the Big Bend. Tomorrow, highs soar to at least 15 degrees above average for late October as mid to upper ridging continues to build and large scale subsidence keeps skies mostly clear.
646 AM CDT Wed Oct 23 2024 Updated aviation portion for 12Z TAF issuance - Cooler, more seasonable air arrives today, with breezy conditions this morning.
Drier air will move into the area behind the front with dew points dropping from the low 60s to the upper 40s.
Broad high pressure was sitting across the southwest to south central United States, centered over northern Mexico. Anomalous mid-level heights and temperatures (on the high and warm side) will continue to drive well above normal temperatures across southeastern Arizona.
419 AM CDT Wed Oct 23 2024 - Temperatures will be warmer than normal for the rest of the week, with highs toward the end of weekend 10 to 20 degrees warmer than normal. A wide swath of stratus remains in the upper trough early this morning and could affect KATY and KABR prior to 15z when it swings over the Great Lakes. Upper ridging builds in this morning with high pressure at the sfc most of today resulting in continued above normal temperatures by 5 to 15 degrees. This trough will continue moving east through the overnight hours.
703 AM EDT Wed Oct 23 2024 - Rain chances to start the day as a cold front sweeps through.
937 AM EDT Wed Oct 23 2024 A weak and dry cold front will cross our area early Thursday with reinforcing high pressure spreading over the region in the front's wake.
550 AM EDT Wed Oct 23 2024 A cold front crosses this evening into tonight, then cool, dry weather returns Thursday.
An elongated positive tilt trough resides off the PacNW coast extending from the Puget Sound southwestward to 30S/150W. As this trough splits, the northern half is forecast to swing through the CWA today with a pretty good thermal gradient and upper vorticity maximum pairing up in the afternoon. This trough moves out quickly tonight with low temperatures Thursday dipping below freezing in the Rogue, Illinois and Western Siskiyou County valleys. Look for some patchy fog and freezing fog as well Thursday morning.
Winds are expected to decrease as the high along the east coast weakens and sags into the Gulf of Mexico later this afternoon. From synopsis, a broad high pressure system over the eastern United States will weaken and retreat southwestward over the next couple of days. However, a second, stronger area of high pressure will then build across the Eastern Seaboard over the weekend.
(12Z TAFS) VFR is expected to continue through the period with surface winds backing from the northeast to northwest as high pressure establishes west of the region.
640 AM EDT Wed Oct 23 2024 Above normal temperatures will continue today ahead of a cold front that moves through the area this afternoon. High pressure will lead to dry conditions with a temporary cool down Thursday, followed by a warm up for the end of the week.
Latest short term model guidance entering early this morning suggests that the lowest visibility could align just east of the I-35 corridor, where the fog could be dense at a quarter mile or less.
955 AM EDT Wed Oct 23 2024 * Dry cold front moves in today.
335 AM MDT Wed Oct 23 2024 KEY MESSAGES: - The weather pattern will bring alternating periods of warmer and cooler temperatures over the next several days. A blocked upper-level closed low pressure system west of Washington State's west coast today will eventually open up into a progressive low pressure trough and move through the northern Rockies region late Wednesday through Thursday. Snow in the higher elevations and rain in the lower elevations.
- Temperatures cool back toward normal behind a cold front on Wednesday. Cloud cover in association with the front should linger through the morning, but break in the afternoon as high pressure quickly moves in on the heels of the cold front. Lows will be near freezing. Temperatures rebound slightly on Thursday as southerly winds return ahead of an approaching cold front. High will be in the low to mid 60s.
616 AM CDT Wed Oct 23 2024 Warm and dry weather continues as low/mid level ridging persists across the Deep South.
648 AM EDT Wed Oct 23 2024 High pressure and dry air over the eastern US will keep the forecast dry through the week.
345 AM MDT Wed Oct 23 2024 - Warmer than normal temperatures and breezy conditions continue today. - Warmer than normal and dry conditions return through the weekend. Total precipitation amounts for these more favored areas generally range from two tenths to half an inch, with the higher amounts mainly limited to the Tetons and southwestern YNP. With the arrival of cooler air this will fall as snow in the mountains and rain in the valleys and basins. Precipitation will fall as light rain farther east across the lower elevations. The afternoon will be much cooler for everyone, though with highs still peaking right around normal.
Showers and mountain snow later today and tonight along with elevated west and southwest winds are expected across northern Nevada as a cold front moves through the area.
An area of high pressure will gradually strengthen through the end of the week, allowing for above normal temperatures, dry conditions, and generally light winds. A zonal flow/flat ridge continues to dominate much of the Southwest. Throughout the rest of the week this ridge will build across the area.
A trough to the north will continue to push some drier air south over our area leading to limited cloud and rain chances. This trough is also helping to weaken the pressure gradient over the area which will lead to lighter winds. Overnight lows tonight will fall into the lower 60s across the Nature Coast with mid 60s from I-4 southward.
Meanwhile, persistent upper level ridge to our north continues to weaken as Canadian trough travels over the Midwest and into the Northeast through early Thursday. This will allow pressure gradient to relax some across the area bringing northeasterly winds down some, but breezy afternoon conditions will still be in place. Later on Thursday, high pressure will begin to build along the Eastern Seabord keeping low rain chances across the area. Another upper level trough pushes across the Northeast and associated cold front will sag south over the Sunshine State into the weekend. Highs in the low to middle 80s and lows in the 60s.
609 AM EDT Wed Oct 23 2024 A weak and dry cold front will cross our area early Thursday with reinforcing high pressure spreading over the region in the front's wake.
550 AM CDT Wed Oct 23 2024 (Today through Thursday) A broad mid-level ridge initially centered over the Baja California region extending eastward into Deep South Texas will provide subsidence across the region through Thursday.
626 AM CDT Wed Oct 23 2024 (Today and tonight) Following yesterday's record high at Lubbock, today should get close to tying the record of 91 as thicknesses remain largely unchanged downstream of weak ridging aloft. This should keep highs from getting out of hand today, yet we'll still side warmer than NBM given its recent cool bias. As surface ridging peels out of KS and northern OK this evening, southerly winds will become more prominent which in turn will pull a shallow layer of richer dewpoints northward overnight.
A weak embedded short wave seen on water vapor satellite imagery just south of the TX Big Bend, is progged to slowly move east tonight through Thursday as it gets picked up by another trough farther north swinging across the plains. Regardless of the trough/short wave, moisture will be too limited for any convection to develop.
941 AM EDT Wed Oct 23 2024 - Rain chances to start the day as a cold front sweeps through.
Temps will be a bit warmer today in the upper 80s with a few 90s thrown in for good measure. Basically, the lows each night and the highs each day will be relatively similar.
While the surface cold front passage was a dry one, lagging mid-level support did spark off a few light showers across northern Missouri today, but like the last round of rain, was largely a tease with hardly measurable amounts in very local areas. Coverage southward will be tied more closely to cold frontal passage overnight, which appears to struggle as you work south of the KC metro area. Within warm sector prior to the evening, a few isolated showers/storms may initiate during the afternoon hours along the nose of low-mid level moisture return and as the warm front lifts, but will tend to lack supportive shear and SBCAPE profiles.
134 PM EDT Wed Oct 23 2024 - Rain chances to start the day as a cold front sweeps through.
Upper level trough is digging through the Great Lakes pushing a cold front south. We will see some cooling behind the front and that will lead to cooler conditions on Thursday with highs in the 70s.
(This afternoon through Thursday night) Unseasonably warm and dry conditions will prevail through the short term as short wave ridging aloft and warm thicknesses aloft keep temperatures above normal. Highs Thursday will be downright toasty for the third week of October, ranging from the lower 80s at higher elevations to the 90s elsewhere to near 100 degrees at Rio Grande Village. A change is in the cards, thanks to a short wave trough transiting the polar westerlies along the northern states.
For tonight, high pressure will be in control of the weather. Temperatures at that time will likely range from the lower 30s to lower 40s. On Thursday afternoon, scattered showers and storms will move east into the area ahead of an approaching cold front. The highest chances for large hail looks to be south of the area, but cannot rule an isolated large hail in our area.