Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
(Today through Friday night) Latest observations this morning show areas of dense fog developing south of the CWA as the low levels become saturated with cooling. Sfc obs also show the anticipated weak cold front approaching from our north, currently stretching over the eastern plains of CO & NM into western KS. This lifting mechanism is still on track to push through the Panhandles this morning, bringing slightly cooler temperatures and about 20-30% coverage of scattered convection in its wake through the day. Temperatures today and tomorrow are currently forecast to stay in the 80s, although some models suggest cloud cover and a somewhat stronger push of cool air behind the front may keep highs a few degrees cooler than the NBM indicates.
324 AM CDT Thu Sep 5 2024 - Cold front brings scattered showers and generally weak storms this afternoon and evening. Looking at the large scale pattern this morning, a positively tilted trough is deepening across the north-central CONUS. This is pushing a cold front southeastward across the Plains, which will move across the forecast area this afternoon. Ahead of the front, deep mixing will be in place, allowing temperatures to rise into the low 90s. Given the forecast frontal position by peak heating, east-central Kansas has the highest chance of seeing convection develop. Behind the front, cooler and much drier air will filter in for the weekend, as the trough becomes a deep upper low over the Great Lakes.
337 AM EDT Thu Sep 5 2024 High pressure from the north will provide slightly below normal temperatures for the remainder of the week under northerly flow.
Synoptic overview and current conditions: Water vapor imagery and upper level analysis show an upper level trough axis from the southern Canadian plains into the central Rockies. Highs will be cooler from the upper 70s in the northeast to the mid 80s in the south.
(Today) A 5h trough axis was located from WV and KY into AR and OK. Highs should stay in the lower to middle 80s closer to the I-59 corridor.
229 AM CDT Thu Sep 5 2024 - A cold front will result in a broken line of showers shifting across the area late this evening through early Friday morning. Higher dewpoint air exists south of I- 72 (mid/upper 60s) while temps north of I-72 have fallen into the low/mid 60s in some places, perhaps favoring fog development in low lying (and thus cooler) areas as this higher dewpoint air advects northward. Today, as Illinois sits ahead of the cold front, summer-like heat returns as southwesterly flow pushes temps into the upper 80s. Humidity also increases, but deep boundary-layer mixing across the warm sector seems to favor some scouring out of the moisture, and after accounting for this the afternoon dewpoint forecast is in the low/mid 60s, as opposed to near 70, which should be tolerable.
(Today and tonight) Main weather story in the short term will be shower and thunderstorm chances associated with a cold front that will move into the area later this afternoon. As has been advertised, this front will not be all that strong and forcing from the parent upper trough will be well removed from our area. The airmass behind the front will not be much cooler, with lows tonight in the mid to upper 60s for most locations.
A ridge of high pressure will be the dominate weather feature over the region through the rest of this week and into the weekend. Expect daytime highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s across the valleys of western Montana and Lemhi County, while the lower Salmon and Clearwater River valleys achieve triple digits.
312 AM EDT Thu Sep 5 2024 High pressure remains in control through Friday keeping conditions mild and dry.
Well, the north-northeast flow around the high center over Nevada will transport that smoke/haze into the southern Great Basin and Mojave Desert today, with some of it lingering into Friday. North winds will hang around within the lower Colorado River Valley through Friday morning before weakening. Temperatures set to peak today with high overhead, then give back 1 to 3 degrees Friday as the high center shifts east toward the Four Corners.
a strong cold front will drop south into the state. with much drier and somewhat cooler air settling into the state by Sat morning.
Despite the front, temperatures are expected to be nearly the same or even a touch warmer than Thursday.
1232 AM CDT Thu Sep 5 2024 - Following a warm day Thursday, a cold frontal passage Thursday night will bring scattered showers and low thunderstorm chances (20%).
1156 PM CDT Wed Sep 4 2024 - A brief return to highs around 90 occurs on Thursday before a strong cold front moves through Friday, accompanied by very limited rain chances. A brief bout of ridging moves in on Thursday helping to boost highs back to around 90. Meanwhile, to our north a deep trough will be diving into the Upper Midwest before engulfing the eastern U. A strong cold front pushes through our area on Friday.
With slightly more sun expected on Friday, highs farther east likely top out a couple degrees warmer. Morning lows will range from the upper 60s in the Hill Country to the low to mid 70s elsewhere.
1254 AM MDT Thu Sep 5 2024 - Building high pressure brings a mild and dry day today.
1231 AM EDT Thu Sep 5 2024 High pressure from the north will provide cooler temperatures for the remainder of the week under northerly flow.
- Around 10 degrees cooler today compared to yesterday with highs in the mid 70s to lower 80s.
A few light isolated showers and thunderstorms will remain possible through Friday ahead of a cold frontal movement. A beautiful weekend will be on display behind Friday's cold front, with highs in the mid 70s to lower 80s and rain free conditions. High pressure will bring seasonable temperatures and dry weather next work-week.
Temperatures are expected to be a bit warmer, perhaps above normal on Thursday. For Friday as a mid-level cyclone intensifies over the Great Lakes and its corresponding trough approaches from the north a cold front will begin to move into the state. Some isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible along the front before activity quickly pushes out of the area and sfc ridging builds in. Much cooler and drier conditions are expected in its wake.
A mid/upper trough is continue to move over the region, while it's associated cold front is moving through our CWA. The trough deepens to the northeast in Canada and north-northwest will be in place tonight into the weekend.
347 AM CDT Thu Sep 5 2024 *Lingering isolated showers and thunderstorms this morning *Areas of haze this morning into the afternoon *Cooler the next couple days *Temperatures warm back into the 90s by the latter half of the weekend As a weak trof advances through the forecast area, scattered light showers and an isolated embedded thunderstorm may be possible this morning, generally east of HWY 83. QPF values will remain low, although there is some increased moisture ahead of the trof, there is a layer of drier air near the sfc, thus expect rainfall amounts to be negligible. As for temperatures, a cooler airmass behind the front will keep temperatures in the upper 70s to low 80s today and Friday. An upper level ridge builds in across the western CONUS and moves east into the High Plains by this weekend.
Prior to the rains starting this afternoon, highs will reach into the lower 90s with some pockets of mid 90s inland and south.
118 AM EDT Thu Sep 5 2024 Cool high pressure will extend southward through central North Carolina through Thursday night, as it pushes slowly eastward off the Northeast coast. This high will weaken Friday, as a cold front approaches from the northwest. With minimal overall change in air mass from this morning but with greater cloudiness, lows tonight should be a little higher than this morning, lows generally in the lower to mid 60s, with some mid/upper 50s expected in the typically cooler locations. Otherwise, expect another day of cooler nely sfc flow as highs peak in the upper 70s to around 80.
142 AM EDT Thu Sep 5 2024 High pressure will keep conditions mild and dry with plenty of sunshine through Friday.
Expect temperatures a degree or two cooler than normal, still reaching into the upper 80s to low 90s each afternoon and mid to upper 70s each morning.
1222 AM CDT Thu Sep 5 2024 - Warmer today and Thursday before another cool spell comes by the weekend. Zooming in to northeastern Kansas, mostly clear skies, afternoon BL mixing and southerly winds have led to temperatures quickly warming into the lower 80s. Continued WAA ahead of this trough axis will help push temperatures back into the upper 80s across northeastern Kansas tomorrow afternoon with a brief surge of moisture. By the afternoon the trough axis will begin to slide through the area with a cold front trailing a bit behind. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will become possible along the pre-frontal trough and trailing frontal boundary through the evening hours.
1232 AM EDT Thu Sep 5 2024 High pressure will remain centered just south of the area tonight, then slowly exit to the east. Low pressure will approach from the south through the end of the week.
317 AM CDT Thu Sep 5 2024 - Cold front expected to bring showers and possibly storms to the area starting Thursday evening.
1254 AM CDT Thu Sep 5 2024 - Only limited shower and thunderstorm activity is expected now with the cold front passage Thursday afternoon and Thursday night. Currently the upper-level trough mentioned in previous discussions continues to trek eastward and is positioned over the northern Rockies.
134 AM EDT Thu Sep 5 2024 Dry through Thursday under high pressure.
404 AM EDT Thu Sep 5 2024 Dry weather continues as high pressure slowly drifts across the region through the end of the week. Behind the boundary drier weather returns along with cooler air. Otherwise high pressure in control today and sunny skies and pleasant temps will be the rule. Tonight high pressure remains in control but center drifts east slightly from its position this morning. As flow on the backside of high pressure becomes more onshore overnight. and temps will be slightly cooler than today.
136 AM CDT Thu Sep 5 2024 - Highs around 90 are forecast today before a strong cold front moves through Friday, accompanied by very limited rain chances. Skies should be mostly clear as we sit in fairly dry air off the surface with weak subsidence aloft with temperatures working into the lower 90s. A strong cold front then approaches with air sourced from west of Hudson Bay, Canada.
Will have light winds through Friday night under high pressure.
Temperatures today will be a bit warmer than recent days, with afternoon highs mostly in the upper 80s to lower 90s.
1158 PM EDT Wed Sep 4 2024 High pressure will keep conditions mild and dry with plenty of sunshine through Friday.
1106 PM CDT Wed Sep 4 2024 - A cold front will bring low rain chances (25 to 35 percent) tonight into Thursday.
/NEW/ /Through Friday/ The axis of a positive tilt mid/upper trough currently stretches from the Ohio Valley to the Central Gulf Coast to Deep South Texas and should remain fairly stationary through Friday. North and Central Texas has become more subsident on the western edge of the trough, which has shut off precipitation for the most part tonight. A deep upper-low situated over the Great Lakes region will help send a cold front south across the Southern Plains during the day Friday bringing gusty north winds to North and Central Texas.
310 AM EDT Thu Sep 5 2024 Very warm temperatures will continue today as high pressure influences our weather. A change in the weather pattern is then forecast with the transition day expected on Friday as a cold front advances southeast across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. Dry and much cooler weather is anticipated for the upcoming weekend as high pressure of Canadian origin settles into the Ohio Valley. A large digging mid level trough is expected to move into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley by Friday night. An associated cold front in advance of this trough will combine with some moisture, diurnal instability, and increasing frontal convergence to bring increasing chances for showers and embedded thunderstorms. For tonight, clouds will increase across the northwest as the cold front encroaches from the northwest.
313 AM EDT Thu Sep 5 2024 High pressure over the region will provide dry and unseasonably cool weather through Friday.
- Warmer and continued dry conditions over the weekend. IR continues to show the upper level trough over the CWA with cooling cloud tops over the Bighorns, where the most active shower activity is occurring. The cooler mid level temperatures are keeping for a more buoyant and not as mixed boundary layer. Otherwise, more seasonable temperatures this afternoon with relatively light winds with a slackened gradient behind last night's cold front. The main upper level trough will exit northeast becoming more progressive into the high plains and upper Great Plains as ridging starts to build back into the CWA from southwest overnight into Thursday. Upper level ridging and the high centered towards Baja California will continue to strengthen into the weaken with increasing convergence aloft.
122 AM EDT Thu Sep 5 2024 High pressure maintains a cool northeast breeze through Thursday, keeping temperatures below normal.
316 AM EDT Thu Sep 5 2024 High pressure will slowly exit to the east today and tonight. Low pressure will approach from the south through the end of the week.
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: NW flow aloft will prevail over the forecast area today as an upper trough moves to the east.
- Showers and perhaps a thunderstorm on Friday along a cold front.
High pressure is set up over the northeast and that will continue to influence our weather today. Southerly flow will bring slightly warmer temperatures today with them a few degrees warmer than yesterday. Highs will warm a few degrees again compared to today with some areas reaching the lower 90s.
Warmer Today with Isolated Showers and Storms. Upper level high is well west across the Southwest US and this has left a largely moist and uncapped air mass in place across the area.
A strong upper-level ridge continues to dominate the west coast. Temperatures Friday diminish by a degree or two as the ridge begins to move eastward, though high temperatures still remain well above seasonal normals by around 10 degrees. The ridge breaks down Friday, lowering inland temperatures to near seasonal normals (low to mid 90s). An approaching trough offshore Friday, while also lowering slightly temperatures, will bring some mid-level moisture into the area.
643 AM MDT Thu Sep 5 2024 - Much cooler today with highs in the 60s to 70s! - Widespread showers and thunderstorms along the Continental Divide and San Luis Valley through this evening.
427 AM CDT Thu Sep 5 2024 - Scattered showers and storms (40 to 60 percent chance) are expected this afternoon and evening as a cold front moves through. - Cooler temperatures expected Friday through the weekend, with a few lingering showers as low pressure exits on Friday.
624 AM CDT Thu Sep 5 2024 (Today through Friday night) Latest observations this morning show areas of dense fog developing south of the CWA as the low levels become saturated with cooling. Sfc obs also show the anticipated weak cold front approaching from our north, currently stretching over the eastern plains of CO & NM into western KS. This lifting mechanism is still on track to push through the Panhandles this morning, bringing slightly cooler temperatures and about 20-30% coverage of scattered convection in its wake through the day. Temperatures today and tomorrow are currently forecast to stay in the 80s, although some models suggest cloud cover and a somewhat stronger push of cool air behind the front may keep highs a few degrees cooler than the NBM indicates.
950 AM EDT Thu Sep 5 2024 High pressure from the north will provide slightly below normal temperatures for the remainder of the week under northerly flow.
627 AM EDT Thu Sep 5 2024 Dry weather continues as high pressure slowly drifts across the region through the end of the week. Behind the boundary drier weather returns along with cooler air. Otherwise high pressure in control today and sunny skies and pleasant temps will be the rule. Tonight high pressure remains in control but center drifts east slightly from its position this morning. As flow on the backside of high pressure becomes more onshore overnight. and temps will be slightly cooler than today.
1100 AM EDT Thu Sep 5 2024 High pressure is sliding to the east.
557 AM CDT Thu Sep 5 2024 - A cold front will result in a broken line of showers shifting across the area late this evening through early Friday morning. Higher dewpoint air exists south of I- 72 (mid/upper 60s) while temps north of I-72 have fallen into the low/mid 60s in some places, perhaps favoring fog development in low lying (and thus cooler) areas as this higher dewpoint air advects northward. Today, as Illinois sits ahead of the cold front, summer-like heat returns as southwesterly flow pushes temps into the upper 80s. Humidity also increases, but deep boundary-layer mixing across the warm sector seems to favor some scouring out of the moisture, and after accounting for this the afternoon dewpoint forecast is in the low/mid 60s, as opposed to near 70, which should be tolerable.
Deep west southwesterly flow has set up across the area with a digging upper level trough to our northwest and high pressure centered over Florida.
632 AM EDT Thu Sep 5 2024 High pressure over the region will provide dry and unseasonably cool weather through Friday.
The area of high pressure that is overhead today will shift back to the east tonight and Friday, settling in over the Four Corners region by Friday night.
The cold front is continuing to push south and most visibility impacts from wildfire smoke are south of our area and air quality sensors are already green in the north and trending towards yellow. Light showers are still lingering over the northwest angle (closer to the mid level trough) and in our far south near the cold front. Otherwise, the main change is a period of low stratus filling in where there was clearing behind the cold front (a bit more scattered in northeast ND currently). A mid/upper trough is continue to move over the region, while it's associated cold front is moving through our CWA. The trough deepens to the northeast in Canada and north-northwest will be in place tonight into the weekend.
A 25 to 70 percent probability of highs at or above 105 degrees exists today through Friday across much of the lower elevations before a cooling trend takes place over the weekend.
602 AM EDT Thu Sep 5 2024 High pressure will slowly exit to the east today and tonight. Low pressure will approach from the south through the end of the week.
705 AM EDT Thu Sep 5 2024 (Today through Friday) An expansive mid to upper level ridge will remain parked over the Florida Peninsula today, with heat concerns being the primary story. The subsidence from the ridge and lower moisture content will support for reduced convection compared to recent days, but there will still be activity around. Rinse and repeat conditions on Friday as the only changes to the setup are a slightly drier airmass, and the ridge starting to weaken as troughing dives across the Eastern US. Heat will be a concern across the area today, with high temperatures reaching the low to mid 90s, and peak heat index values ranging from 106-112 degrees.
/Issued 1253 AM CDT Thu Sep 5 2024/ /Through Friday/ The axis of a positive tilt mid/upper trough currently stretches from the Ohio Valley to the Central Gulf Coast to Deep South Texas and should remain fairly stationary through Friday. North and Central Texas has become more subsident on the western edge of the trough, which has shut off precipitation for the most part tonight. Some extended solutions want to reintroduce troughing over the Lone Star State toward the end of our 7-day forecast.
403 AM MDT Thu Sep 5 2024 - Much cooler today with highs in the 60s to 70s! - Widespread showers and thunderstorms along the Continental Divide and San Luis Valley through this evening.
611 AM CDT Thu Sep 5 2024 - Cold front brings scattered showers and generally weak storms this afternoon and evening. Looking at the large scale pattern this morning, a positively tilted trough is deepening across the north-central CONUS. This is pushing a cold front southeastward across the Plains, which will move across the forecast area this afternoon. Ahead of the front, deep mixing will be in place, allowing temperatures to rise into the low 90s. Given the forecast frontal position by peak heating, east-central Kansas has the highest chance of seeing convection develop. Behind the front, cooler and much drier air will filter in for the weekend, as the trough becomes a deep upper low over the Great Lakes.
417 AM CDT Thu Sep 5 2024 Forecast discussion for routine morning forecast issuance - Showers and thunderstorms are possible today into this evening along a cold front moving across the area.
710 AM EDT Thu Sep 5 2024 A ridge of high pressure over the Commonwealth will maintain cloud-free skies through this morning.
729 AM EDT Thu Sep 5 2024 High pressure will bring dry conditions through Friday.
539 AM MDT Thu Sep 5 2024 - Cooler today with decreasing cloud cover through the day.
CAMs suggest the highest coverage of showers and storms will be along and west of the I-4 corridor.
315 AM MDT Thu Sep 5 2024 - Cooler today with decreasing cloud cover through the day.
30 Previous Discussion: /Through Friday/ The axis of a positive tilt mid/upper trough currently stretches from the Ohio Valley to the Central Gulf Coast to Deep South Texas and should remain fairly stationary through Friday. North and Central Texas has become more subsident on the western edge of the trough, which has shut off precipitation for the most part tonight. Some extended solutions want to reintroduce troughing over the Lone Star State toward the end of our 7-day forecast.
623 AM CDT Thu Sep 5 2024 - Cold front expected to bring showers and possibly storms to the area starting Thursday evening.
632 AM EDT Thu Sep 5 2024 High pressure will bring dry conditions through Friday.
838 AM EDT Thu Sep 5 2024 Very warm temperatures will continue today as high pressure influences our weather. A change in the weather pattern is then forecast with the transition day expected on Friday as a cold front advances southeast across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. Dry and much cooler weather is anticipated for the upcoming weekend as high pressure of Canadian origin settles into the Ohio Valley. A large digging mid level trough is expected to move into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley by Friday night. An associated cold front in advance of this trough will combine with some moisture, diurnal instability, and increasing frontal convergence to bring increasing chances for showers and embedded thunderstorms. For tonight, clouds will increase across the northwest as the cold front encroaches from the northwest.
1008 AM EDT Thu Sep 5 2024 High pressure will slowly exit to the east today and tonight. Low pressure will approach from the south through the end of the week.
615 AM CDT Thu Sep 5 2024 Updated aviation portion for 12Z TAF issuance - Showers and thunderstorms are possible today into this evening along a cold front moving across the area.
With cloudy skies present and ERLY flow in the lower levels, we will be somewhat stable. We will especially struggle to warm up on Friday with the higher rain chances so Friday should be even a few degrees lower than today. The warmest conditions on Friday should be in the NW where the pops will be the lowest.
501 AM CDT Thu Sep 5 2024 (Today) A 5h trough axis was located from WV and KY into AR and OK. Highs should stay in the lower to middle 80s closer to the I-59 corridor.