Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
An associated surface front will swing into the Florida Peninsula and keep the Atlantic ridge off to our east. Ridging remains across the Gulf through the upper levels. However, the lower to mid level ridge axis has been fractured and pushed southward past Cuba. Expect overnight lows approaching 80 with dew points in the lower to mid 70s.
722 PM CDT Fri May 30 2025 Updated at 714 PM CDT Fri May 30 2025 - Scattered storms expected in the higher terrain through the weekend (30-40% chances). Temperatures have been much cooler behind a cold front and due to clouds with highs generally in the 60s/70s. The majority of the forecast area will remain dry through the evening, however, a few storms are still anticipated near the cold front this afternoon in and around the Presidio Valley. Our upper pattern transitions slightly Saturday with strong NW flow shifting north and southerly flow developing over the Big Bend as another trough just off Baja moves toward us.
The cold front has now pushed south of our area with little to no convective development to speak of before its departure. The rain and storms in our area are north of the cold front which is moving its way toward the Coast. Saturday through Friday: High pressure and drier air will filter into the region for the weekend (dew points into the 50s and 60s). The pattern is a little tricky with strong ridging over the Northern Rockies, a cutoff low near the Baja Peninsula, and troughing over the US East Coast.
1003 PM EDT Fri May 30 2025 Through the night, parts of SW VA and perhaps extreme NE TN will have some scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms underneath a large mid/upper low over the Mid-Atlantic region. Some small hail may be possible with these showers/storms due to the very low freezing levels. Discussion: The cold front is now along the TN/NC state line moving eastward into the Carolinas with breezy northwest winds and drier air arriving across the region. With troughing across the area, slightly below normal temperatures are expected on Saturday, especially across northeastern sections of the forecast area closer to the trough axis.
pdf Cold front will slowly track southeast across the area Tonight. Most of the precipitation should clear the area with the front, but a few may linger behind due to weak troughing behind main front. Lows in the lower to mid 60s will be common over SE GA, with upper 60s to lower 70s across NE FL.
The cold front is expected to clear our area by sunrise tomorrow morning. (Through Saturday) An unstable airmass is in place across the region this afternoon ahead of an approaching cold front. Temperatures won't be significantly cooler, but dewpoints will be quite a bit lower, helping to keep the humidity much more pleasant.
(Tonight and Tomorrow) While conditions currently sit in the high 60s to low 70s, post frontal clear skies paired with NW flow will allow for a cooler airmass to take root overnight. By daybreak tomorrow temps will have dropped into the low to mid 50s. Despite being post frontal at the surface, the mid level will take about a day to catch up with troughing continuing to push east as we enter the weekend. Fortunately being on the back side of the trough will amount to little to no impact weather on Saturday. Mostly clear skies will allow temps to rise into the low 80s with light NW winds.
Currently, a thermal trough is bringing Small Craft Advisory conditions to areas from around Cape Blanco southward.
Warmer high temperatures are in the forecast for today with widespread Moderate HeatRisk.
1013 PM EDT Fri May 30 2025 A cold front and associated showers and thunderstorms move east of the area by this evening.
825 PM EDT Fri May 30 2025 A cold front and associated showers and thunderstorms move east of the area by this evening.
632 PM CDT Fri May 30 2025 A few lingering showers and general thunderstorms, mainly along and southeast of the I-65 corridor, will move offshore by mid evening as a cold front passes through the area.
816 PM EDT Fri May 30 2025 (Through Saturday) An unstable airmass is in place across the region this afternoon ahead of an approaching cold front. Temperatures won't be significantly cooler, but dewpoints will be quite a bit lower, helping to keep the humidity much more pleasant.
521 PM MDT Fri May 30 2025 - Warmer temperatures and drier conditions will persist through the weekend. - Cooler and wetter weather returns for the start of the work week. Current radar shows a few scattered storms over the high terrain. Temperatures on Saturday will be a few degrees cooler compared to Friday, but still average for the end of May. Being on the eastern fringe of the ridge will also help keep conditions dry, however cannot rule out an isolated high terrain storm or two as there is a small amount of mid-level moisture over the mountains.
Light northwest winds will be present between high pressure over the Southern Plains and deepening low pressure over the Northeast.
Warm and dry conditions today with high pressure over Western Washington. A weak frontal system will bring cooler temperatures and rain on Saturday.
Today will end up being the hottest day of the year for many locations, thus far, with the axis of an upper level ridge passing east of the Cascades. The upper ridge will continue to exert its influence into Saturday, especially east of the Cascades, but will shift into the Great Basin.
No change made to existing forecast as guidance and trends continue to support widely scattered showers and a few storms through tonight, increasing in coverage/intensity late overnight into Saturday morning as a cold front pushes south across the area.
1221 AM CDT Sat May 31 2025 Updated at 1221 AM CDT Sat May 31 2025 - Scattered storms expected in the higher terrain through the weekend (30-40% chances). Temperatures have been much cooler behind a cold front and due to clouds with highs generally in the 60s/70s. The majority of the forecast area will remain dry through the evening, however, a few storms are still anticipated near the cold front this afternoon in and around the Presidio Valley. Our upper pattern transitions slightly Saturday with strong NW flow shifting north and southerly flow developing over the Big Bend as another trough just off Baja moves toward us.
1241 AM CDT Sat May 31 2025 The cold front has now pushed south of our area with little to no convective development to speak of before its departure. The rain and storms in our area are north of the cold front which is moving its way toward the Coast.
103 AM EDT Sat May 31 2025 (Through Saturday) An unstable airmass is in place across the region this afternoon ahead of an approaching cold front. Temperatures won't be significantly cooler, but dewpoints will be quite a bit lower, helping to keep the humidity much more pleasant. (Saturday night through Sunday night) Generally dry conditions are expected to persist through Sunday in the wake of the early weekend cold front. Otherwise, seasonably warm temperatures are expected on Sunday, with highs in the lower 90s.
Issued 338 AM CDT Sat May 31 2025 Today and Tonight: The cold front is continuing westward across sw WI early this morning and is expected to stall just west of the MS River later today and tonight.
1144 PM CDT Fri May 30 2025 Updated at 1144 PM CDT Fri May 30 2025 - Dry weather is expected this weekend behind a cold front. Highs will be in the low 80s.
(Today through Sunday) A frontal boundary is currently stalled over the CWA today, which will bring cooler temperatures, north-northeasterly winds, and an increased chance of precipitation to Deep South Texas today. Tomorrow, little-to-no precipitation is expected to occur over Deep South Texas as south-southeasterly flow and upper level ridging returns to the area. Highs today will be in the lower 90s, and highs tomorrow will be in the mid 90s.
257 AM EDT Sat May 31 2025 A low pressure system with rain moves off east coast this morning.
A deep mid-/upper-level trough axis is oriented along the Eastern Seaboard with northwesterly flow aloft across the Southeast and southern Appalachians.
(Today through Sunday) Cold front has made it to the coast this morning and continue to slowly move offshore today.
Early morning IR satellite and radar imagery is showing a band of moisture and developing thunderstorms sprawled across northern Florida associated with an incoming decaying cold front. Despite only modest shear being present, cooler temperatures moving in aloft will increase lapse rates and allow for a few strong or damaging storms to be possible with the convection today. As the front dissipates across the Florida Peninsula, drier and slightly cooler air will fill into the northern half of the forecast area by Sunday.
At the surface, ridging is present across the Deep South. In the upper levels, a large upper low is present over Quebec with NW flow into AL around it. This has helped to usher in the cooler air that we have this morning. Highs will be similar today and tomorrow, but warmer than yesterday without all of the cloud cover. For tonight, the sky should be clear with expected lows still some 5-7 degrees lower than norms for this time of year but a couple of degrees warmer than this morning.
1103 PM MDT Fri May 30 2025 - Warmer temperatures and drier conditions will persist through the weekend. - Cooler and wetter weather returns for the start of the work week. Current radar shows a few scattered storms over the high terrain.
This will provide more stable conditions with a slightly cooler night time temperature and less humid conditions on Saturday with no chance for rain.
Water vapor imagery/surface analysis early this morning shows yesterday's cold front now draped across the northern portions of the Ohio Valley. But, temperatures will come in a bit on the cooler side with highs only topping off in the mid to upper 60s across the interior with upper 50s/low 60s across the Keweenaw, east, and lakeshores. Tonight, leaned toward the cooler side of guidance with clear skies and trended toward lows near the freezing mark across the interior west.
350 AM EDT Sat May 31 2025 A weak cold front will clear the area this morning. High pressure will then build in. The trailing end of a cold front will extend from southeast to northwest across the Tri-State, slowly sagging south of the area through the day. High pressure will build in through the period. Temperatures will cool off into the mid 40s, 10 or more degrees below normal, with readings rebounding back into the lower to mid 70s. Mean H5 trough axis begins to propagate more towards the Atlantic coast Sunday night, eventually being replaced by a longwave ridge.
A ridge will continue to strengthen over the area tonight as a trough approaches the coast with southwest flow aloft. A cold front will move through the area Saturday night, bringing breezy west-northwest winds up to 30 mph, except stronger winds up to 45 mph possible over Baker County near Huntington OR and Farewell Bend along the I-84 corridor. An upper level ridge axis will pass to our east tonight, allowing strengthening SW flow aloft to move into the area. Temperatures will be in the upper 90s to near 100 in the lower elevations, and 80s to 90s in populated mountain areas. Only the highest peaks will have highs in the 60s. A stronger upper level trough will approach Sunday and move through Sunday night, bringing another cold front.
1230 AM CDT Sat May 31 2025 A few lingering showers and general thunderstorms, mainly along and southeast of the I-65 corridor, will move offshore by mid evening as a cold front passes through the area. /22 An amplified upper trof is aligned from the New England states southwest to the central Gulf Sunday.
(Today and tonight) The cold front will be completing its passage through the CWA coastal regions this morning.
Updated at 227 AM CDT Sat May 31 2025 - A few showers/storms expected in the higher terrain through the weekend (10-40% chances). In the upper- levels, a ridge over the western CONUS drifts toward our direction, with its axis setting up over the central Great Plains Sunday evening. Meanwhile, a trough off the coast of Baja California brings southerly flow aloft this afternoon.
(Today) Tranquil weather is ongoing across the Tennessee Valley region early this morning, with high pressure at the surface controlling our sensible weather. Ample sunshine will allow temperatures to climb back into the lower 80s in most locations by this afternoon despite the light northwest flow that will be prevailing.
1223 AM CDT Sat May 31 2025 (Tonight through Saturday night) A cold front is expected to approach the northern part of Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley late tonight to around early tomorrow morning. The highs for tomorrow are expected to be mostly in the low to mid 90s. As for the low temperatures, they are currently expected to be in the 70s.
Discussion: Front is well off to the east of the Appalachians, and behind it we're seeing much cooler air funnel into the region with temperatures in the 50's and even in the 40's in the higher elevations as we approach the month of June.
Surface moisture is currently fairly meager across the area, with dewpoints in the low to mid 50s in many spots. Storms will likely linger well into the overnight hours as the trough axis will not move east of the area until Sunday morning, but overall storm intensity is expected to decrease after midnight.
1120 PM MDT Fri May 30 2025 - Warmer temperatures are forecast to return late over the weekend. Looking at convective-allowing model (CAM) soundings, CAPE will be very limited with a a nearly inverted-V sounding in the lowest 3km. Overnight lows are expected to be in the low 50s tonight. Tomorrow could be a tad cooler than today with highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s and overnight lows in the upper 40s to lower 50s. Sunday is expected to be dry as the upper ridge keeps the Gulf moisture contained near the Gulf Coast to Southern Plains. As Alvin moves ashore, disturbances along the ridge will aide in the development of a lee trough as a cold front moves over the Northern Rockies and Plains regions.
Although northerly flow will remain across the Plains between a Rocky Mountain ridge and a Great Lakes trough, model guidance is coming into closer agreement regarding a compact mid-level trough moving due south across the Plains. Boundary-layer moisture is currently rather meager behind the cold front, but sufficient advection and evapotranspiration will occur by tomorrow afternoon to raise 100 mb mean mixing ratios to roughly 12. A weak cold front will start to move in from Kansas tomorrow afternoon. The outflow-modified cold front will move at least into the Red River region by Sunday afternoon. Storm chances will end from north to south with high temperatures remaining in the low-to-mid 80s.
1240 AM CDT Sat May 31 2025 (Tonight and Tomorrow) While conditions currently sit in the high 60s to low 70s, post frontal clear skies paired with NW flow will allow for a cooler airmass to take root overnight. By daybreak tomorrow temps will have dropped into the low to mid 50s. Despite being post frontal at the surface, the mid level will take about a day to catch up with troughing continuing to push east as we enter the weekend. Fortunately being on the back side of the trough will amount to little to no impact weather on Saturday. Mostly clear skies will allow temps to rise into the low 80s with light NW winds.
- Scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms continue through Sunday (mainly over the higher terrain). - Warmer weather makes a return through the weekend, with highs back into the low 80s for most of the plains. It appears CAPEs in the I-25 corridor are 400-1000 J/kg, but this initial batch of showers will create a cloudier and cooler environment that will limit the intensity of later showers. Sunday we'll be under a ridge with a pretty dry environment, but still warm enough for a few mountain storms.
(Today through Sunday) Key Messages: - Minor to Moderate Risk for Heat-Related Impacts today and Sunday A mid to upper level ridge is expected to move into South Texas Saturday and hang around through the end of the weekend. With increased subsidence and drier air Sunday, warmer temperatures are expected to close out the weekend.
A backdoor cold front will move into the region from the northeast today. Otherwise, expect warm temperatures in the low/mid 80s for most spots, with mid/upper 70s north and east of the Quad Cities.
Beginning Sunday, subtropical moisture will move into the area bringing showers and thunderstorm activity, along with cooler weather, to the area through mid-week. Warmer and drier conditions return for the end of the week. Current satellite and upper-air analysis shows a closed low centered off the coast of northern Baja California.
Warmer conditions, with a return to near normal afternoon temperatures, remain expected today, aided by westerly low level flow on the north side of the departing high.
Light winds in place will limit advancement of smoke with another wave impacting a broader area becoming favored to come along behind a cold frontal passage Sunday afternoon. Warm and dry conditions linger until the front and upper trough arrives moving SE over the area. These storms should not be severe as the cooler air should stabilize the low levels. However, it cannot be ruled out in the southern zones, closer to the NE-SW cold front, with hail and gusty winds.
A mild night is expected Saturday night, with good radiational cooling from the dry airmass allowing temperatures to bottom out in the low 60s north of I-10, mid 60s to near 70 south.
A weak frontal system will bring cooler temperatures and rain on Saturday.
621 AM EDT Sat May 31 2025 (Today and tonight) The cold front will be completing its passage through the CWA coastal regions this morning.
532 AM MDT Sat May 31 2025 - Warmer temperatures and drier conditions will persist through the weekend. - Cooler and wetter weather returns for the start of the work week. Current radar shows a few scattered storms over the high terrain.
541 AM CDT Sat May 31 2025 (Today) Tranquil weather is ongoing across the Tennessee Valley region early this morning, with high pressure at the surface controlling our sensible weather. Ample sunshine will allow temperatures to climb back into the lower 80s in most locations by this afternoon despite the light northwest flow that will be prevailing.
536 AM CDT Sat May 31 2025 (Today through Sunday) Key Messages: - Minor to Moderate Risk for Heat-Related Impacts today and Sunday A mid to upper level ridge is expected to move into South Texas Saturday and hang around through the end of the weekend. With increased subsidence and drier air Sunday, warmer temperatures are expected to close out the weekend.
620 AM CDT Sat May 31 2025 Updated at 618 AM CDT Sat May 31 2025 - A few showers/storms expected in the higher terrain through the weekend (10-40% chances). In the upper- levels, a ridge over the western CONUS drifts toward our direction, with its axis setting up over the central Great Plains Sunday evening. Meanwhile, a trough off the coast of Baja California brings southerly flow aloft this afternoon.
645 AM EDT Sat May 31 2025 A weak cold front will clear the area this morning. High pressure will then build in. The trailing end of a cold front will extend from southeast to northwest across the Tri-State, slowly sagging south of the area through the day. High pressure will build in through the period. Temperatures will cool off into the mid 40s, 10 or more degrees below normal, with readings rebounding back into the lower to mid 70s. Mean H5 trough axis begins to propagate more towards the Atlantic coast Sunday night, eventually being replaced by a longwave ridge.
647 AM EDT Sat May 31 2025 A low pressure system with rain moves off east coast this morning.
A strong upper-level ridge remains centered over the Great Basin, supporting anomalously hot and dry conditions across the region. The leading edge of a Pacific trough will tighten pressure gradients, producing southwest to west winds of 30â35 mph, with localized gusts near 40 mph this afternoon and up to 45 mph Sunday.
823 AM EDT Sat May 31 2025 Early morning IR satellite and radar imagery is showing a band of moisture and developing thunderstorms sprawled across northern Florida associated with an incoming decaying cold front. Despite only modest shear being present, cooler temperatures moving in aloft will increase lapse rates and allow for a few strong or damaging storms to be possible with the convection today. As the front dissipates across the Florida Peninsula, drier and slightly cooler air will fill into the northern half of the forecast area by Sunday.
908 AM EDT Sat May 31 2025 A weak cold front will clear the area this morning. High pressure will then build in. The trailing end of a cold front will extend from southeast to northwest across the Tri-State, slowly sagging south of the area through the day. High pressure will build in through the period. Temperatures will cool off into the mid 40s, 10 or more degrees below normal, with readings rebounding back into the lower to mid 70s. Mean H5 trough axis begins to propagate more towards the Atlantic coast Sunday night, eventually being replaced by a longwave ridge.
552 AM CDT Sat May 31 2025 (Today through Sunday) A frontal boundary is currently stalled over the CWA today, which will bring cooler temperatures, north-northeasterly winds, and an increased chance of precipitation to Deep South Texas today. Tomorrow, little-to-no precipitation is expected to occur over Deep South Texas as south-southeasterly flow and upper level ridging returns to the area. Highs today will be in the lower 90s, and highs tomorrow will be in the mid 90s.
145 PM MDT Sat May 31 2025 KEY MESSAGES: - A cold front will drop southeast through the area Sunday bringing breezy to windy conditions to the area.
1147 AM CDT Sat May 31 2025 (Today through Sunday) A frontal boundary is currently stalled over the CWA today, which will bring cooler temperatures, north-northeasterly winds, and an increased chance of precipitation to Deep South Texas today. Tomorrow, little-to-no precipitation is expected to occur over Deep South Texas as south-southeasterly flow and upper level ridging returns to the area. Highs today will be in the lower 90s, and highs tomorrow will be in the mid 90s.
Sunday: Weak trough development over the SE US, but overall a hot and dry day is expected in weak West to Southwest flow under mostly to partly sunny skies as Max Temps push back into the lower 90s over inland areas and upper 80s along the Atlantic Coast as the East Coast sea breeze develops and pushes inland to about the US 301 corridor by the late afternoon hours.
1232 PM CDT Sat May 31 2025 (Today through Sunday) Key Messages: - Minor to Moderate Risk for Heat-Related Impacts today and Sunday A mid to upper level ridge is expected to move into South Texas Saturday and hang around through the end of the weekend. With increased subsidence and drier air Sunday, warmer temperatures are expected to close out the weekend.
116 PM EDT Sat May 31 2025 (Today and tonight) The cold front will be completing its passage through the CWA coastal regions this morning.
(Through Sunday) With the whole forecast area now post frontal, dry NW flow is making for a noticeably cooler and more comfortable day. Lows tonight will be in the mid 60s, a little warmer along the coast. Then a slightly warmer day in store for tomorrow as flow becomes more zonal, with highs expected in the upper 80s to lower 90s.
Current temperatures are in the upper 70s to around 80 degrees and highs are still on track to top out in the lower 80s (especially along and west of I-65).
350 PM EDT Sat May 31 2025 Low pressure tracks north into Western Maine this evening.
Morning global guidance shows the dry cold front south of our forecast area continuing to propagating southward across Florida. Expect afternoon highs to peak into the low/mid 80s areawide.