Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
This is despite the Keys lying on the eastern edge of a mid level cut-off low that is sliding west southwest, which puts us in a more favorable region. Therefore took PoPs down to 30 to 40 percent for today, with the best chances possibly favoring the Lower Keys, especially Stock Island and west.
1114 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024 - Cooler through Thursday with scattered showers/storms, but organized severe weather/heavy rain threats are unlikely.
Strong upper level ridging was in place over the coastal Mid Atlantic with upper 590s decameter heights at 500mb. And with a strong summer sun (today also the first day of summer that starts around 351 PM CDT), high temperatures should respond appropriately, warming into the lower 90s.
(Today and tonight) Mid level ridging extends from New Mexico to the Ohio Valley early this morning with the ridge axis lying over the forecast area with little movement expected to it. Alberto will come ashore on the Mexican coast south of Brownsville and will move quickly inland with an extension of its trough and moisture working northward through southwest Texas.
-Keeping an eye on flooding concerns near Harvey along the Chocolay River and over the west due to the high recent rainfall amounts. this afternoon as the decaying cold front continues crawling eastwards. The precipitation looks to mostly conclude over our area by early this evening as weak high pressure ridging builds into Lake Superior. Overall, temperatures today have been much cooler than what we saw yesterday, with many areas already having hit there high around 70 to the mid 70s today. Moving into tonight, low temperatures are expected to be cooler, mainly getting down into the 50s with some spots possibly getting into the upper 40s.
414 AM EDT Thu Jun 20 2024 - Cooler temps and showers with slight chances for thunder across northern lower today. Relatively weak high pressure will build across the far northern Great Lakes today as a cold front continues to sag south this morning, eventually settling near the state border. Forecast Details: Cooler temps, showers/slight chance thunder -- Ongoing band of showers across northwest lower, Tip of the Mitt, and the eastern U. Temperatures look to warm into the low to mid 70s this afternoon, and may warm into the upper 70s/low 80s locally should more sunshine than clouds persist during peak heating.
Rainfall rates with these showers are topping out at a few hundredths an hour with the highest around 2 tenths of an inch an hour across far southeastern Mason County. With our area on the far western periphery of the upper ridge, some minor upper level impulses may provide just enough additional lift to create some showers and storms, especially across the southern half of the area as abundant moisture will still be in place, along with marginal instability at around 500-800 J/kg SBCAPE. Daytime highs will remain cooler in the mid to upper 80s with gusty east winds.
Trough pattern slowly degrades as a ridge builds late this week. MM (This evening through Thursday) Cooler temps today with ample sunshine across the area.
1226 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024 (Tonight through Thursday) Deep-layer easterly flow will persist through Thursday, driven by ridging centered over the Mid-Atlantic and Tropical Storm Alberto over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico.
420 AM EDT Thu Jun 20 2024 High pressure will cover the region through the end of the week. Large upper level ridge of high pressure will dominate regional weather with subsidence squashing all but a few afternoon cumulus. In spite of the summer welcoming pattern, easterly flow off the Atlantic Ocean will maintain lower temperatures at 85H and lower dewpoints across our forecast area compared to the northern periphery of the upper level ridge where temperatures are baking our neighbors to the north.
156 AM MDT Thu Jun 20 2024 Today will be a bit warmer than yesterday as temperatures warm into the 70s to lower 80s under partly cloudy to mostly sunny skies.
Hot and dry conditions continue with strong ridging in place. NAFES anomalies continues to depict a strong upper ridge across the mid-Atlantic states into the Tennessee valley and Appalachians. Surface ridging into the southern Appalachians with weak pressure gradients will produce light winds.
1237 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024 Strong surface ridging pattern over the Mid-Atlantic and TN Valley continue to keep calm weather and near seasonal temperatures over the ArkLaMiss region.
818 PM PDT Wed Jun 19 2024 Trough pattern slowly degrades as a ridge builds late this week. MM (This evening through Thursday) Cooler temps today with ample sunshine across the area.
1219 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024 (This evening through Thursday night) The forecast area remains positioned under a mid/upper level ridge axis sandwiched between a notable inverted easterly wave/tropical system over the western Gulf of Mexico and an area of broad cyclonic flow aloft over most of the western CONUS. As broad midlevel subsidence beneath the ridging aloft becomes more pronounced, the shallow cellular convection along and ahead of the outflow boundary earlier today is expected to quickly diminish with time through the rest of this afternoon. Tonight, inverted upper troughing associated with the Gulf tropical system will begin shifting westward while an impressive plume of deep layer moisture pivots over our region.
158 AM EDT Thu Jun 20 2024 (Rest of today through Thursday) Ridging remains in place over the southeastern US, with a generally easterly flow across South Florida today. Sounding date from the 12Z MFL launch and ACARS flights show increasing moisture at the lower levels this morning, topped by a deep layer of dry air aloft. Interior and southwest FL will see further warming throughout the day, with highs in the low 90s.
(Tonight through Wednesday) Upper level high pressure over the eastern United States will continue to shift westward late this week and into the weekend, which should lead to decreasing cloud cover, even less potential for showers and thunderstorms and a marked increase in the heat and heat stress potential.
With overcast skies and intermittent rain, highs struggle to reach the low 80s for most with 70s in the higher elevations. The highest chances for rain Friday afternoon will be confined to the higher elevations and to areas to the west with little, if any precipitation expected across the Permian Basin.
411 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024 Today and Tonight: Easterly flow will continue today with ridging continuing as its center over the mid-atlantic states will be extended into the mid-MS Valley. The stout ridge will provide a rather dry airmass aloft mitigating the potential for storm coverage as chances for showers and storms will remain along the coast as Tropical Storm Alberto continues its track westward into Mexico. High temperatures will be in the low 90s this afternoon dropping into the low 70s to high 60s overnight.
A upper level ridge offshore will continue to build into the region through Friday.
The general gist is that 500 hPa ridge of high pressure will prevail over the region region today and continuing through Friday. At the surface, the lee trough across eastern Colorado will diurnally deepen. The weather pattern really doesnât change Friday with high pressure still in control across the greater region.
329 AM MDT Thu Jun 20 2024 - Warmer today with a good chance of afternoon thunderstorms. Overall, showers and storms will increase by early aftn over the higher terrain. Meanwhile, storms over the higher terrain may produce a few wind gusts up to 60 mph as well. As far as highs today, readings will be warmer with readings in the 85 to 90 degree range over nern CO. This feature may allow for the development of additional shower and tstm development especially over the higher terrain. Upper ridging returns to dominate the CWA's weather by Friday.
(Thursday through Friday) Upper-level ridging continues to slide west this morning across the Appalachians, with the western extent of the ridge moving into the Ark-La-Miss.
The main clockwise flow continues to advect moisture into the area on the western periphery of the H500 high pressure system. High temperatures today and tomorrow will range from the lower to upper 80s across the Panhandles.
An eroding upper level trough is promoting a warming trend through the weekend, with above average temperatures Friday and into the weekend. This morning's lows hover in the upper 40s to lower 50s in the lower elevations, up to the upper 50s to near 60 in the higher elevations. The upper level trough that settled in and cooled us off yesterday is beginning to erode, with a slight warmup expected today as high temperatures rise into the upper 50s to lower 60s along the coast, the upper 60s to mid 70s in the Bayshore, and the 80s into the lower 90s in the interior valleys.
A large area of high pressure sits over the eastern-half of the United States, with a trough situated over much of the west. As Alberto moves across Mexico, the trough over the west begins to lift northward and the ridge begins to retrograde. 0-6km shear is a bit on the lower-end but with the influence of the trough, areas across northern Arizona could potentially see a few stronger thunderstorms with 25-35 kts of shear. 2 inches in the Lower Deserts. HREF and CAM guidance does show an increase in 0-6 km shear as the trough lifts northward.
Temperatures continue to trend warmer, with highs today in the 80s for most locations.
550 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024 Today and Tonight: Easterly flow will continue today with ridging continuing as its center over the mid-atlantic states will be extended into the mid-MS Valley. The stout ridge will provide a rather dry airmass aloft mitigating the potential for storm coverage as chances for showers and storms will remain along the coast as Tropical Storm Alberto continues its track westward into Mexico. High temperatures will be in the low 90s this afternoon dropping into the low 70s to high 60s overnight.
625 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024 (Today and tonight) Mid level ridging extends from New Mexico to the Ohio Valley early this morning with the ridge axis lying over the forecast area with little movement expected to it. Alberto will come ashore on the Mexican coast south of Brownsville and will move quickly inland with an extension of its trough and moisture working northward through southwest Texas.
535 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024 (Thursday through Friday) Upper-level ridging continues to slide west this morning across the Appalachians, with the western extent of the ridge moving into the Ark-La-Miss.
A slight chance to chance of showers arrives around sunset and later from the east, with the highest chance of rainfall along the Volusia and northern Brevard County coast. A mention of precip returns this evening into tonight as an area of low pressure approaches from the Atlantic. Winds veer overnight as the low pressure feature moves inland across northeast Florida.
It also doesn't hurt that we are also still on the southwestern edge of the big upper level ridge that is bringing the heat to many of the population centers in the northeast. While "Alberto" is pretty much a non-factor for our area, there is a tropical wave in the Atlantic that is forecast to scoot across the southern periphery of the upper ridge, and could perhaps spread some showers into south Alabama on Friday.
645 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024 (Today through Friday Night) An upper level ridge over the Ohio River Valley will retrograde to the west today and Friday.
-Keeping an eye on flooding concerns near Harvey along the Chocolay River and over the west due to the high recent rainfall amounts. Current water vapor imagery/surface analysis early this morning show a stationary frontal boundary draped across much of the Lower Midwest and eastern Great Lakes Region. Meanwhile, expect temperatures at to slightly below normal today and tonight with highs generally topping off in the low to mid 70s (60s across Keweenaw) and lows in the upper 40s to mid 50s.
Temperatures rising to 10 to 15 degrees above average this weekend with widespread triple digit maximum temperatures across the lower elevations.
1057 AM EDT Thu Jun 20 2024 - Cooler temps and showers with slight chances for thunder across northern lower today.
(Rest of today through Friday) Hot and dry weather will remain the headline through Friday as a ridge of high pressure stretches over the region. Dewpoints climb slightly higher on Friday from upper 60s to low 70s on Friday making those feel like temperatures slightly warmer Friday afternoon.
The highest chances are currently this evening and Friday evening in portions of northeast Nebraska and west- central Iowa.
The rest of the region will see afternoon highs in the low to mid 90s. Friday will be slightly warmer given there will be fewer clouds to filter the sunshine, with most locations warming into the 90s. /Issued 304 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024/ /Friday Night Onward/ Strong ridging aloft will provide hot and rain-free weather area- wide this weekend.
- Rain chances diminish this weekend with a return to warmer temperatures.
At the upper levels, a longwave trough is positioned along the western CONUS with high pressure over the east coast, creating a southwest flow pattern across the Northern Plains. At the surface, there is an area of low pressure to the southwest, with high pressure off to the northeast. This is resulting in weak easterly upslope flow across the SD Plains, locking the low clouds into place over most of the area. Cool, moist airmass continues over the region Friday, and temperatures will be only slightly warmer than today. Buoyancy will increase across the warmer areas of northeastern WY and southern SD again, and as a more potent wave approaches Friday afternoon.
Hot and dry conditions will affect the region over the next couple of days as high pressure prevails across the Mid-South.
Then the flow aloft shifts to the southwest, bringing warmer conditions.
Dew points are still running in the lower to mid 60s. Current forecast looks good with warmer temperatures today as clouds from the tropical system have moved away. Upper ridge is holding strong over the mid Atlantic and Ohio Valley. Heat index values should only reach into the lower to mid 90s, just above actual highs. Hot and dry conditions continue with strong ridging in place. NAFES anomalies continues to depict a strong upper ridge across the mid-Atlantic states into the Tennessee valley and Appalachians. Surface ridging into the southern Appalachians with weak pressure gradients will produce light winds.
240 PM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024 Hi-res global guidance continues to highlight high pressure sfc ridging across much of the southeast CONUS. The higher rain chances will remain along the southern Gulf coast as guidance shows Tropical Storm Alberto moving westward across central Mexico. Expect overnight lows to drop into the low 70s areawide. Dry/quiet conditions are expected tomorrow for most of the area as high pressure ridging continues to push the drier airmass across the southeast CONUS. The combination of high pressure ridging and a persistent dry airmass will keep our weather relatively dry through the end of this week.
Afternoon temperature maximums will reach the low-to-mid 90s with easterly winds at 5-10 mph. /16/ (Thursday through Friday) Upper-level ridging continues to slide west this morning across the Appalachians, with the western extent of the ridge moving into the Ark-La-Miss.
The rest of the region will see afternoon highs in the low to mid 90s. Friday will be slightly warmer given there will be fewer clouds to filter the sunshine, with most locations warming into the 90s.
The higher rain chances will remain along the coast as Tropical Storm Alberto continues its westward track into Mexico this morning. Expect afternoon highs to peak into the low 90s across the forecast area. /CR/ Today and Tonight: Easterly flow will continue today with ridging continuing as its center over the mid-atlantic states will be extended into the mid-MS Valley. The stout ridge will provide a rather dry airmass aloft mitigating the potential for storm coverage as chances for showers and storms will remain along the coast as Tropical Storm Alberto continues its track westward into Mexico. High temperatures will be in the low 90s this afternoon dropping into the low 70s to high 60s overnight.
A low amplitude trough will move across the US-CAN border during the day Fri to generate some afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms along the entire length of the ID-WY border on Fri/Fri night. Very little in the way of wind, but the persistent northeast and east surface flow will be shifted by this trough to southwest and west Fri afternoon.
High temperatures Friday will remain below normal, ranging from the upper 70s at higher elevations to the lower 90s along the Pecos and Rio Grande river valleys.
1222 PM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024 (Today and tonight) Mid level ridging extends from New Mexico to the Ohio Valley early this morning with the ridge axis lying over the forecast area with little movement expected to it. Alberto will come ashore on the Mexican coast south of Brownsville and will move quickly inland with an extension of its trough and moisture working northward through southwest Texas.
1217 PM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024 (Rest of Today) An upper-level ridge axis is oriented SW-NE across western MS. Highs are forecast to reach the upper 80s in the higher elevations to the low 90s across the rest of the local area.
1222 PM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024 Mid-level heights will be rising over the region today as the ridge center that has been situated over the eastern CONUS flattens and shifts west in our direction. A ridge in the upper levels centered over southern TX will continue to throw high clouds up over us from the outflow of Alberto down in Mexico.
(Rest of Today) An upper-level ridge axis is oriented SW-NE across western MS. Highs are forecast to reach the upper 80s in the higher elevations to the low 90s across the rest of the local area.
This is due to ongoing easterly surface flow that will also wane in intensity through the next 12 hours as surface ridging shifts westward and overhead.
(This evening through Friday) High pressure will remain over the area through the short term.
Increasing rain chances overnight as an area of low pressure nears the Florida peninsula, with VCSH/SHRA after 00-02Z at all terminals except for LEE. Winds will be veering throughout the night due to the low, and may become variable at times. A slight chance to chance of showers arrives around sunset and later from the east, with the highest chance of rainfall along the Volusia and northern Brevard County coast.
In the upper-levels, CIMSS satellite-derived vorticity product highlights a closed low centered just to the southwest of the upper-levels. Meanwhile, in the lower troposphere, a tropical wave now centered over the northern Bahamas continues to propagate west northwestward towards northern Florida. Surface analysis reveals a weak low pressure system centered near the same location, Tropical Depression Alberto over eastern Mexico continuing to weaken, and a sprawling area of high pressure centered just north of Bermuda bifurcating these features.
At the surface, expansive high pressure centered to the north of Bermuda is bridging two areas of low pressure: one associated with Tropical Storm Alberto centered over eastern Mexico, and another weak area of low pressure just to the east of the Northern Bahamas. From synopsis, strong high pressure centered north of Bermuda working in tandem with Tropical Storm Alberto near the Bay of Campeche will result in moderate to fresh breezes through this evening. A second, weak area of low pressure currently east of the Bahamas will move west northwest, reaching the southeast U. There were no tropical cyclones in the area.
1034 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024 Mid-level heights will be rising over the region today as the ridge center that has been situated over the eastern CONUS flattens and shifts west in our direction. A ridge in the upper levels centered over southern TX will continue to throw high clouds up over us from the outflow of Alberto down in Mexico.
NEAR TERM A few showers and possibly an isolated thunderstorm or two may develop this afternoon, mainly over the southern part of forecast area along a plume of enhanced moisture translating westward along the southern periphery of a strong upper level ridge of high pressure building into the Tennessee and Mid-Mississippi Valley regions. The High Surf Advisory and High Rip Current Risk continues.
Surface ridging over Lake Superior is allowing for light onshore flow along the shoreline keeping temperatures in the 50s along the immediate shore to 60s inland. Temperatures will be seasonable tonight around 50 and into the lower 50s with clouds keeping temperatures from falling too much despite light winds.
(This evening through Friday) Slightly warmer on Friday with isolated showers/storms Southeasterly flow continues to advect moisture into the area, and the 12Z OUN sounding resembles that of a tropical profile with improved, deeper moistening of the atmospheric column (up to around 500mb) compared to the observation from last evening. Clouds should lessen in coverage throughout the day tomorrow, and result in slightly warmer temperatures, with low 90's expected for most areas and mid-90's for the post-harvest wheat belt that extends from northwest into north- central Oklahoma.
1119 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024 (Today through Friday Night) An upper level ridge over the Ohio River Valley will retrograde to the west today and Friday.
(Tonight) A fairly widespread cumulus deck has kept temperatures a bit cooler than expected so far today. This cumulus field should dissipate quickly after sunset, as a large area of high pressure to our northeast continues to build southwest into the area. Not going too far below guidance for lows given a weak pre-frontal trough axis may be able to focus an axis of higher low level moisture into the center of the ridge south into the area near and west of the I-65 corridor.
A drier airmass is in place with scattered cumulus and dew points in the lower to mid 60s. Upper ridge is still holding strong over the mid Atlantic and Ohio Valley this afternoon. Winds are light and variable as well and heat index values are only in the lower 90s at mid afternoon. For the next 24 hours the center of the ridge shifts west and will be almost overhead Friday. Expecting temperatures to be slightly warmer Friday but no significant changes in the forecast. Above average temperatures continue with strong ridging in place.
CAPE values of 1500-2000 J/kg along with dewpoints in the low 70s should result in some scattered thunderstorms developing this afternoon, mainly from the Concho Valley southward. A more stable airmass should take over by early Friday morning as a broad upper ridge, located over the Ohio Valley, starts to build into west central Texas. High temperatures should be a few degrees warmer than the past couple of days given more sunshine. A high pressure system will develop across the southwestern U.
(This evening through Friday) An upper-level ridge is currently centered over the ArkLaTex and is expected to build westward towards our forecast area through the short term period. Expect seasonable temperatures tomorrow, with most areas 5-10 degrees warmer than today's highs.
118 PM EDT Thu Jun 20 2024 The heat wave continues through the week courtesy of a broad upper level ridge.
CAPE values of 1500-2000 J/kg along with dewpoints in the low 70s should result in some scattered thunderstorms developing this afternoon, mainly from the Concho Valley southward. A more stable airmass should take over by early Friday morning as a broad upper ridge, located over the Ohio Valley, starts to build into west central Texas. High temperatures should be a few degrees warmer than the past couple of days given more sunshine.
Overall, expect cooler than normal temperatures for the first official day of Summer with highs in the 80s for most. On Friday, the Subtropical Ridge that's been "baking" the Midwest and Northeast, will slide further south and west, effectively drying things out for most areas outside of the Rio Grande Plains.