Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
326 AM EST Wed Jan 22 2025 Arctic high pressure will drift across the region through midweek.
(Tonight) Mostly clear conditions late this evening across the Tennessee Valley as cloud cover is finally shifting south and east as the low pressure system over the Gulf continues to pull away from the area.
The best shot will be in the mountains with lesser chances for the lower elevations. The highest totals are in the Park Range and Flat Tops. This system also brings another cold air mass into the region as a result the higher elevations will be colder compared to yesterday.
This trough will dig into the Upper Midwest today which will force a cold front into the forecast area this afternoon. Until then WAA will continue which will allow temperatures to rise into the low to mid 30s. Weak lift along this cold front coupled with meager moisture will allow light snow to develop for areas along and north of the Highway 36 corridor.
The 00z VEF sounding did indicate considerable warming in the lower atmosphere compared to yesterday, which will help temperatures from bottoming out quite so low, but fairly widespread freezes are expected once again tonight.
Updated at 152 AM CST Wed Jan 22 2025 - Warmer temperatures through the end of the week. (Today and tonight) Temperatures should finally climb above freezing area wide this afternoon with highs forecast in the 40s.
- A weak cold front will bring snow showers to areas north of I-72, with the greatest chances north of a Galesburg to Bloomington line, today. The warming trend has begun! Highs today will be in the mid 20s to low 30s with significantly warmer wind chills (around 20 degrees). An upper low that will dig into the west coast over the weekend will make the upper flow more zonal, helping the temperatures moderate to more normal values.
1027 PM CST Tue Jan 21 2025 (Tonight) Mostly clear conditions late this evening across the Tennessee Valley as cloud cover is finally shifting south and east as the low pressure system over the Gulf continues to pull away from the area.
1052 PM CST Tue Jan 21 2025 Updated at 1049 PM CST Tue Jan 21 2025 - Warmer temperatures through the end of the week.
Overnight lows remain on track to settle around 10-15 degrees with winds calming down and high pressure over the region. The core of the high over the forecast area will also allow for dry air to mix through the afternoon. Mid afternoon satellite imagery/RAP analysis showed a sharp upper level trough just northwest of our CWA that will swing across the region tonight and then off the east coast Wednesday. This upper level trough will support the cold front and help usher in a reinforcing shot of cold dry air. This will help provide us with dry weather and allow temperatures warm above freezing during the afternoon.
1113 PM CST Tue Jan 21 2025 - Warmer temperatures are on the way. These gusty winds continue to usher warmer air into the region and we will see some of the benefits of it tomorrow when above freezing temperatures are able to mix down to the surface Wednesday afternoon. This sends another cold front through the region. Moisture is limited and so snowfall totals should remain on the low side, thinking of a range between a dusting and a few hundredths of an inch for most of the area.
This weekend, expect cooler temperatures, breezy winds, and widespread precipitation chances. The exception to this quiet weather will be along the Colorado River Valley, where gusty north winds will return today and Thursday as a result of the region being sandwiched between a Pacific ridge of high pressure and a broad, longwave trough across the central United States.
Heavy freezing spray also continues for today. The snow chances will expand tnt toward central WI given the previously mentioned upper features and cold frontal passage, but snow amounts will remain light.
There may be some more vigorous showers along the leading edge of the colder air with the cold front, but do not expect anything strong enough to be considered a snow squall. For now, the main band of snow may produce another inch or two of snow before it moves out, but the lingering snow showers are not expected to produce any measurable snow, especially with the gusty winds expected today behind the low center.
Accumulative amounts between a dusting to 1 inch are expected across the area with the highest accumulations likely setting up along and south of I-90. While overall amounts will be low, temporary reductions to visibility and slower commute times will be possible during periods of falling snow so make sure to plan accordingly! From here, the dreary conditions will continue throughout the day as a cold front swings through the area from the afternoon onwards.
Brutal temperature are expected to start the morning, as reinforcing cold air takes hold behind this last trough. Because of this, the current snow pack in our southern areas may be slow to melt with frequent refreezing.
- Warmer conditions return for late week into the weekend. Coldest temperatures will be south of the Big Country, where overnight lows will be in the lower 20s. Slightly warmer temperatures are expected across the Big Country, with overnight lows in the mid 20s. Lee trough develops tonight, with south winds developing and becoming gusty after midnight into tomorrow morning. Will go ahead and issue a Cold Weather Advisory for areas south of Interstate 20 from midnight through 9 AM tomorrow morning due to the low wind chills. We finally warm up a bit tomorrow, with afternoon highs topping out in the low to mid 50s under full sunshine. However, another cold front will move through tomorrow afternoon and early evening, which will bring slight colder temperatures for Thursday.
The Cold Weather Advisory continues through the morning with lows in the low-mid 20's along with some northerly winds 5-10 mph. Dry high pressure filling into the area will allow for clear skies and plenty of sun today, which should help clear up roadways of any ice despite temps only reaching the mid-30's this afternoon. As high pressure settles overhead tonight, winds will drop off significantly and allow for some strong radiational cooling.
Upper level low pressure sinking southward from central Canada is still on track to arrive close enough to eastern Idaho to generate light snow almost everywhere except lower elevations of the southwest corner of the forecast area. As the low continues its track southward and eastward, cold air on the north side of the low floods into eastern Idaho, once again dropping temperatures. Exactly how much the temperatures cool after the low passes is in question, with a trend to a more mild event. After this, upper level ridging allows a warming that by Tue brings temperatures to around normal for the time of year. 75 to 80 percent of the cluster solutions for this low feature on Fri/Sat indicate it clearing out by Mon with northeast to north airflow on Mon and all of the solutions have 500mb positive anomalies by Tue.
This will lead to another fair weather day as strong high pressure crests overhead this afternoon. High pressure moves offshore tonight as a weak warm front pushes into the region from the southwest. This will result in increasing clouds will will also aid in warmer overnight temps then what we've seen the last few nights. A return southwesterly flow behind the departing high pressure system will allow for a mix of sun and clouds with temperatures mostly in the 20s on Thursday, but back into the single numbers Thursday night as a cold front crosses the region, again relatively dry with the exception of a few upslope snow showers in the mountains.
539 AM CST Wed Jan 22 2025 (Today through Thursday) - Cold Weather Advisory continues through 9 AM this morning will Freeze Warning continues through 11 AM - Freezing temperatures remaining likely during the overnight periods Temperatures this morning will be off to a very chilly start in the teens and 20s across the region. This is thanks to the arctic high that we will be under the influence of into Thursday ahead of our next cold front.
Near term guidance suggests the low stratus will expand eastward into SE FL early this morning before some gradual improvement begins after daybreak. As the low quickly pulls away from the area during the day, drier conditions will return by early to mid afternoon Thursday.
(Today through Thursday) - Cold Weather Advisory continues through 9 AM this morning will Freeze Warning continues through 11 AM - Freezing temperatures remaining likely during the overnight periods Temperatures this morning will be off to a very chilly start in the teens and 20s across the region. This is thanks to the arctic high that we will be under the influence of into Thursday ahead of our next cold front.
Broad northwest flow aloft continues across the central United States as the large longwave trof remains in place over eastern North America. Temperatures continue to rise today ahead of a cold front which pushes into the state this evening. As this passes over the state this afternoon, readings should push into at least the lower 30s over much of the south and west and have pushed highs up over guidance. A cold front arrives this evening and pushes quickly southward through the state. The broad upper trof across the eastern United State remains into the weekend but gradually lift northeast.
628 AM EST Wed Jan 22 2025 Sub freezing wind chills continue today, and the Cold Weather Advisory and Extreme Cold Warning remain in effect across the region until early afternoon.
- Warmer this afternoon with highs in the 50s. - Warmer conditions return for late week into the weekend.
605 AM CST Wed Jan 22 2025 - Another round of light snow is possible today (30 to 40 percent chance) as a cold front moves through the state.
- Cool and windy today with temperatures staying below freezing.
This trough will bring in colder air for Thursday and highs will only reach into the lower to mid 30s.
- Cold front moves through tonight keeping temps on Thursday below freezing. Surface obs showed low pressure over northern MN with a training trough through western KS and into the TX panhandle. Still the airmass remained very dry with high pressure along the gulf coast preventing any moisture return. For temps, a westerly component to the low level winds and modest warm air advection is expected to help warm afternoon temps into the middle 30s.
Dry and cold today, with warmer highs. Parts of the middle and southern valley may finally break freezing. 10 to 15 degrees warmer tonight. Discussion: The Cold Weather Advisory remains in effect until later this morning for wind chills or temperatures in the lower single digits to near 10 below zero, especially across the higher terrain. Subtle height rises aloft when the deep trough retreats some, will provide a bit warmer temperatures today. Many will still be just below freezing, but one positive is that parts of the valley south of Knoxville, to the border may finally break the freezing mark for highs. Tonight, low temperatures should generally fall to the low 20s and teens.
315 AM CST Wed Jan 22 2025 - Another round of light snow is possible today (30 to 40 percent chance) as a cold front moves through the state.
The flow aloft will drive another cold front across the region on Thursday morning, bringing a reinforcing shot of cooler and drier air. Temps will remain well below normal on Thursday, but it will be slightly warmer than today, with morning lows in the low to mid 20s, and highs ranging from the upper 40s to lower 50s.
This trough will dig into the Upper Midwest today which will force a cold front into the forecast area this afternoon. Until then WAA will continue which will allow temperatures to rise into the low to mid 30s. Weak lift along this cold front coupled with meager moisture will allow light snow to develop for areas along and north of the Highway 36 corridor. CAA will continue through the day Thursday as another upper level trough moves through the area.
One wild card in this morning's forecast is the prospect of freezing fog. Despite the warmer afternoon, most inland areas are forecast to have another sub- freezing night Thursday night.
Continued dry, but warmer, conditions expected today. A dry cold front will move through on Thursday bringing a few clouds and increased winds.
455 AM CST Wed Jan 22 2025 Updated at 453 AM CST Wed Jan 22 2025 - Warmer temperatures through the end of the week. (Today and tonight) Temperatures should finally climb above freezing area wide this afternoon with highs forecast in the 40s. Cooler air will lag farther behind, mainly impacting Thursday.
A low pressure system will spread across the Great Basin this weekend bringing unsettled conditions.
424 AM MST Wed Jan 22 2025 KEY MESSAGES: - Warmer temperatures will generally prevail throughout the forecast period.
456 AM EST Wed Jan 22 2025 Sub freezing wind chills continue today, and the Cold Weather Advisory and Extreme Cold Warning remain in effect across the region until early afternoon.
Meanwhile, forecast low temperatures for tonight into Thursday morning indicate that freezing temperatures will occur for a portion of the northern ranchlands. However, areal coverage and duration of the freezing temperatures is not significant, so will not issue a Freeze Watch or Freeze Warning at this time. Finally, elevated seas along the Lower Texas Coast will allow the High Surf Advisory to continue through the morning hours of today, with a High Risk of rip currents in place until around sunset today.
The good news is that it will be dry on Wednesday and Thursday as the base of the gargantuan upper trough moves over head. So as our snow slowly melts and or sublimates (goes from solid to gas phase) it will cool the air likely keeping high temperatures tomorrow at or even below freezing for highs. Thursday should be a little warmer and we should see a decent amount of snow melt by then before yet another refreeze of any liquid on Thursday night.
Additionally, with freezing temperatures overnight, any residual moisture will be frozen and could lead to patchy black ice on roads and concrete. Cloud cover increases Wednesday night and another weak cold front moves across the area overnight. A reinforcing cold front arrives before daybreak Thursday, but not significant changes in winds or day-to-day high temperatures are projected from this feature.
- Temperatures will struggle to get above freezing today. Most of the freezing precip has come to an end as of the construction of this AFD. These cold temperatures to start the day combined with afternoon high temperatures in the low to mid 30s will continue to keeping snow and ice on roadways for a while longer. To that point, temperatures are only expected to increase above freezing for a few hours in the mid to late evening, then quickly drop below freezing once again after sunset.
A new cold front will drop SE into the state tonight into early Thu morning. The cooler air will settle in for Thu night however.
Highs today will be in the low 30s, but across the far southeast may see highs read slightly higher than NBM guidance as evidenced by observations, so have tried to raise highs in that area to account for this.
352 PM EST Wed Jan 22 2025 A weak low pressure system will move east through the Great Lakes tonight through Thursday. This low will extend a weak cold front east across the region on Thursday.
Clear skies and southerly winds will allow temperature maximums to get further above the freezing mark this afternoon, reaching the low-to-mid 40s as a result.
Satellite imagery this afternoon shows a widespread blanket of cloud cover ahead of an incoming cold front with a few flurries or light snow showers being squeezed out of the stratus. Our weather pattern will remain fairly stagnant through the 7 day forecast period with a lack of major weather systems as the Rex Blocking pattern over the western US continues to keep the any more powerful synoptic scale systems at bay.
A broad longwave trough is the dominant upper-level weather feature across much of the CONUS. Closer to the surface, a frontal boundary remains to the south over the Florida Straights as a large area of surface ridging settles over the E CONUS. While a northerly flow is in place, advecting cooler air into the region, the airmass is maritime polar, rather than continental polar. A brief midday clearing helped get temperatures up a little warmer in this area. Only Levy County is expected to drop below freezing tonight as such. Much like yesterday, another lifting warm front favors additional overrunning precip tomorrow, with thick cloud cover and cold temperatures remaining. As today's high temps are falling fall short of expectations (and in some spots may break daily records for the lowest high temperatures), persistence says this is likely again tomorrow.
1204 PM EST Wed Jan 22 2025 Arctic high pressure slowly weakens through the end of the work week.
219 PM CST Wed Jan 22 2025 - Cold front moves through tonight keeping temps on Thursday below freezing. At mid afternoon, a couple of waves were moving through a mid level trough across the northern and central Plains. A cold front will continue to move through the forecast area this afternoon with the best advection of cold air arriving later this evening. A secondary mid level trough will move through Nebraska on Thursday with no precipitation expected.
1137 AM CST Wed Jan 22 2025 (Today through Thursday) - Cold Weather Advisory continues through 9 AM this morning will Freeze Warning continues through 11 AM - Freezing temperatures remaining likely during the overnight periods Temperatures this morning will be off to a very chilly start in the teens and 20s across the region. This is thanks to the arctic high that we will be under the influence of into Thursday ahead of our next cold front.
- Warmer this afternoon with highs in the 50s. Cooler on Thursday.
328 PM EST Wed Jan 22 2025 High pressure builds over the region into tonight, shifting offshore on Thursday. Weak low pressure passes offshore into Thursday night.
Temperatures will moderate slightly today as southerly winds on the back side of high pressure begin to advect warmer low level temperatures into the Mid-South.
Although the wind will remain light, temperatures will drop below freezing early this evening and bottom out in the teens over our eastern and southern zones.
Temps will still be cold, even by seasonal standards, but will be quite a bit warmer than we've experienced very recently.
210 PM CST Wed Jan 22 2025 - Cooler Thursday with a few flurries possible.
A dry cold front will move through on Thursday bringing a few clouds and increased northeast winds.
Chances for light snow is the primary forecast concern tonight into Thursday as an upper trough and cold front swing through. The main upper trough and cold front look to reach nw IN and sw MI later this evening into the overnight, and through the rest of the forecast area Thursday morning/early afternoon. The exception will be closer to the lake where enhancement is expected immediately along and behind the cold front.
Clear skies and full sun this afternoon still has yet to bring temperatures up to freezing for most of our forecast area. Due to the observed snow cover, I have forecasted lows on the lower end of the guidance envelope: mid teens. Inland, cloud cover will increase from the west ahead of the approaching trough. West of I-95, lows will be a few degrees warmer where heavy snow accumulations were not recorded. Expect lows in the lower teens. Cloudy on Thursday beneath the approaching trough. Dry and cold through the period as high pressure builds in from the west.
A drier airmass should begin to filter in the wake of the low, with drier weather conditions expected by Thursday mid-late afternoon.
248 PM CST Wed Jan 22 2025 - Snow will continue through Thursday morning across the region with the highest accumulations of up to 2 inches across Sheridan county and the Pine Ridge.
Under full insolation temperatures have warmed as expected but with the arctic high centered over the area and snow to melt across our south, it will be a much cooler than normal day.
300 PM EST Wed Jan 22 2025 Dry and cold weather continues tonight as high pressure over the southern Plains builds over the Ohio Valley.
Strong high pressure ridging in from the north with the clouds pushing off to the east leading to plenty of sunshine. With lingering winds at 925mb, gusts into the mid to upper teens will be possible this morning with a weakening of the low level jet into the afternoon leading to a decrease in winds as the high begins to settle over the area. As more reports of snowfall have come in (and is visible on satellite imagery), have continued to lower temperatures in the southeastern portion of the forecast area which will struggle to rise much above freezing. As high pressure settles overhead tonight, winds will drop off significantly and allow for some strong radiational cooling.
A cold front blasted its way across the Florida Keys between 6 and 10 am this morning. Along the leading edge of the front we had a decent line of showers that sadly fell apart before reaching the Lower Keys. A cold front has swept across the Florida Keys coastal waters, bringing a surge of strong northerly breezes.
Tomorrow we look to warm up slightly more then we managed to today with highs generally in the low to mid 50s. Another cool night is on tap for the area with a Hard freeze expected as temps tumble into the upper low to mid 20s.
Northerly winds have persisted in the wake of the cold front that blasted through this morning.
A weak, dry cold front is expected to move through SE Texas overnight into Thursday morning as a mid/upper level trough digs across the Central Plains/Upper Mississippi River valley. Still, some snowpack may remain in place, which could bring locally cooler spots where temperatures are a few degrees cooler.
This keeps much of the area below freezing for the vast majority of the day tomorrow (maybe 1-2 hours above freezing). Whatever ice/snow that fell yesterday should mostly melt on Thursday as highs are expected to get into the low-to-mid 40s.
1152 AM CST Wed Jan 22 2025 - Scattered snow showers will continue across the area today as a cold front moves through the state.
Northeast Alabama and portions of southern middle Tennessee may not warm above freezing today. West of these areas are forecast to top out in the lower to mid 30s.
Despite a warm front across Minnesota, the system is expected to occlude with northeast Wisconsin missing the warm sector and mainly seeing the occluded front late this afternoon into this evening. The lake effect will continue until Thursday afternoon when winds back westerly as high pressure builds in across the upper Mississippi Valley.
This will be prime melting time before temps drop down below freezing by 5-6pm.
Updated at 228 PM CST Wed Jan 22 2025 - Temperature roller coaster as we deal with a few waves of cold fronts throughout the period.
That has moved off to the east and now the main upper level trough will arrive late this afternoon into tonight. With the passage of the trough this will bring somewhat colder temperatures on Thursday, with highs in the mid to upper teens.
This is due to the broad, dense ridge axis--responsible for the coldest temperatures of the season --shifting further across the eastern US. This will maintain southerly winds across the area, slowly boosting temperature maximums and minimums closer to seasonal normals (maximums in the lower 50s/minimums in the lower 30s).
High pressure remains centered just to the north of the area with much drier air in place leading to clear skies. The increased sun has led to increasing temperatures, although the air mass remains anomalously cold with most locations near freezing even into the early afternoon. Potential for slight warming late tonight into early Thursday morning, although still well below freezing, as some mid and high clouds move into the area, but hires guidance does show the clouds relatively thin so probably will not interfere too much with radiational cooling.
940 AM CST Wed Jan 22 2025 - Scattered snow showers will continue across the area today as a cold front moves through the state.