Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Expect for highs to be in the 50s areawide by this afternoon, with highs in the low to mid 60s for many by tomorrow afternoon.
1140 PM CST Wed Jan 31 2024 (This evening through Friday) CURRENTLY: As of 1 PM CST, mostly sunny skies and cooler temperatures have highlighted the current weather across the state.
1046 PM CST Wed Jan 31 2024 Updated aviation portion for 06Z TAF issuance - Areas of fog or freezing fog could develop tonight, particularly across central Wisconsin. Tonight and Thursday Winds aided in mixing out the lower atmosphere through the first half of the day, which allowed clouds to dissipate and clear skies to prevail for most location. Leaned towards the return of the low-level moisture below an inversion which would once again bring low clouds and possible fog. With temperatures just below freezing, some freezing fog could also develop leading to localized slippery spots on roads. With more clouds also expect high temps to be a few degrees cooler than today, topping out in the middle 30s to lower 40s.
Water vapor imagery and the 00Z RAOBs describe a developing mid- latitude cyclone east of the Carolinas, a progressive long wave ridge moving across the Mississippi River Basin, and a highly dynamic bifurcation of the Pacific jetstream across the West Coast. The tail end of a weak cold front is analyzed near the Keys. A weak cold front will push through the Florida Keys coastal waters tonight, resulting in briefly freshening breezes tonight.
The area will remain situated on the northern periphery of developing high pressure with northwest flow aloft. The highest chances will remain southwest of the Pittsburgh metro. KEY MESSAGES: - A passing trough brings low chances for rain and snow Thursday night into Friday. ------------------------------------------------------------------- An upper trough over eastern Canada dives southeastward across the lower Great Lakes and Northeastern CONUS Thursday night and Friday. For now, maintained low-end PoPs (20-30%), favoring the current solution with a brief period of overlap and minimal QPF mainly in the higher terrain east of Pittsburgh. The upper trough will quickly exit to the south Friday morning, resulting in dry weather during the day Friday. A brief shot of cold air advection should bring slightly cooler temperatures, closer to seasonal averages. ------------------------------------------------------------------ An upper ridge builds back in over the area through the weekend.
In advance of this front we will manage to have one more warmer than normal day today with strong gusty southwest winds developing this afternoon. Might be a couple more inches at the highest peaks, but it will be hard to tell thanks to the strong winds that will be present and likely blowing it around.
303 AM EST Thu Feb 1 2024 Dry high pressure over the area today gives way to a dry cold front crossing the region from the north on Friday.
833 PM MST Wed Jan 31 2024 EVENING UPDATE: Only adjustments made were to the visibility grids (updated data) and accordingly, adjusting the sky grids to account for a mostly clear, high-pressure dominant night.
Clouds are continuing to advance eastward this evening as an upper trough approaches the coast. The low pressure system off the coast will continue to drive easterly surface winds, especially through the Snake Plain overnight. On the climate side, the high of 66 in Boise today did set the monthly record high for January, breaking the previous monthly record of 63 set on January 9th, 1953. The old record was 63 degrees and the high so far today has been 65. A very moist moist frontal system along the coast will gradually move eastward, bringing a change to cooler wetter conditions for the remainder of the week. The front crosses the region Thursday night for a wind shift to the west-northwest, cooler temperatures, and lowering snow levels Thursday night through Friday.
The main sfc reflection will be the passage of a weak fragmented sfc trof across the state. The main impact from this low level feature will be light and variable winds across SW Kansas. Have the highest confidence of this occurring across west central to central Kansas behind the front in the upslope flow regime. This is particularly true across the north, where the confidence is the highest. Boundary layer moisture will increase even across Kansas ahead of this low. The NBM pops have the highest pops across central Kansas, which agrees with climatology.
(Today) An extensive high cloud deck is present across eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas, and with a likelihood of it persisting across portions of the area well into the afternoon, it adds some degree of challenge to the high temperature forecast today.
A greater surge of low-level moisture and associated stratus will arrive Thursday night into Friday as an upper-level trough deepens over the Desert Southwest.
The high pressure will slide off to our east and southeast, and an upper level short wave will dive south toward the region. Meanwhile, a weak surface cold front will drop south and will be nearing our northern border by the end of tonight.
08 Previous short-term discussion: (This afternoon through Thursday) A deep ridge axis extends northward through the Central CONUS with high surface pressure centered over the Lower MS River Valley. Flow will become more zonal aloft tomorrow as the ridge loses amplitude and moves across the region. This will result in a slight warming trend with most areas reaching the lower 60s tomorrow afternoon under mostly sunny skies.
1014 PM CST Wed Jan 31 2024 (This evening through Thursday) Plentiful mid and upper level moisture was observed funneling over the region early this afternoon within southwest flow aloft ahead of a compact upper low centered over the Four Corners. A drier airmass then arrives by sunrise Thursday as the upper low shifts eastward, bringing a brief period of more zonal flow aloft to our region.
- Slightly cooler Friday before a return to potential record warmth for this weekend. On Thursday morning, a cold front and upper level trough will move southeast through the area. With the combination of these cooler temperatures aloft and more cloud coverage, high temperatures will be slightly cooler ranging from the upper 30s to the upper 40s.
Abundant sunshine, veering winds, and increasing thicknesses point to high temperatures today about 5-7 degrees warmer on average than yesterday, generally in line with NBM and average of MOS values. Backing flow aloft overnight in advance of a developing upper low over the western CONUS will promote increased south to southwesterly flow off the deck, low level moisture advection, and the potential for some stratus to advect into the southern South Plains late tonight.
A cold start this morning with many areas near or below freezing, but temperatures will rise quickly this morning with highs today in the lower to middle 60s.
A reinforcing cold front pushed through yesterday which will help to keep temperatures cool for the rest of our work week. High pressure will be sitting over the area keep mainly sunny skies and light winds.
1227 AM EST Thu Feb 1 2024 Ridge of high pressure continues to build into the Ohio Valley through this evening. A cold front sags south across the area Thursday afternoon and evening. High pressure builds in from the north behind the cold front Friday into the weekend. Low to mid level ridging continues to build overhead from the southwest this evening and overnight. This ridging quickly erodes as a cold front sags south over the lake early Thursday morning. Low temperatures tonight and Thursday night will settle in the low to mid 30s. Any lingering snow showers should diminish by mid-morning Friday as the upper trough pushes east and a ridge builds in from the west.
High temperatures each afternoon will hover around the low 70s, while overnight temperatures could continue to dip into the 50s and 60s each night.
On Thursday, expecting a large area of stratus to be located to our east, northeast, and north as a backdoor cold front pushes southward.
1046 PM CST Wed Jan 31 2024 (This evening through Thursday) Early this afternoon, an upper-level ridge was located over the southern Plains. This ridge should move off to the east through Thursday afternoon. However, the low-levels appear to be too dry for anything significant so other than a few drops here and there, chances were kept under 10 percent. Despite light winds, overnight low temperatures should be 10 to 15 degrees warmer than what we have seen the past few nights.
1120 PM CST Wed Jan 31 2024 Evening water vapor/upper air analysis indicate mean ridging to the west progged to build eastward through the night. Meanwhile further north and east, high pressure will keep clear skies and calm weather. Such conditions will offer the chance to radiate tonight in these areas and temperatures could drop into the low 30s. Remainder of the work week: An omega block over the CONUS will keep deep ridging for our area resulting in quiet weather through the end of the work week with temperatures generally above normal.
1238 AM EST Thu Feb 1 2024 An upper low pressure system will continue to move away from the area tonight.
High pressure over the Deep South will dominate the weather across central Illinois today. A weak cold front across the Northern Plains will sink southward into central Illinois tonight. Overnight lows will range from the lower 30s along/north of I-74 to the upper 30s south of I-70. After a cloudy start to the day, increasing amounts of sunshine will be noted by Friday afternoon as the cold front drops well south of central Illinois. Highs will be a few degrees cooler than today in the middle to upper 40s across most locations.
Evening water vapor/upper air analysis indicate mean ridging to the west progged to build eastward through the night. Meanwhile further north and east, high pressure will keep clear skies and calm weather. Such conditions will offer the chance to radiate tonight in these areas and temperatures could drop into the low 30s. Remainder of the work week: An omega block over the CONUS will keep deep ridging for our area resulting in quiet weather through the end of the work week with temperatures generally above normal.
A cold front will then push south Thursday and will be south of the Ohio River by Friday morning. Southwest low level flow ahead of a weak cold front slipping south into northern Ohio by 00Z. Temperatures warm with highs from the upper 40s to the lower 50s. The weak cold front will sag south across the area Thursday night into Friday morning. High temperatures return to the mid 50s, while overnight lows drop to the low 30s for the weekend.
(Today through Friday afternoon) Upper level ridge begins to slide eastward over the course of today. Southwesterly flow takes hold and helps temperatures warm well into the 70s for most with the exception of the higher elevations. The main upper level trough enters the region Friday morning with a mid-level jet oriented west to east across Northern Mexico. Western areas reach into the mid to upper 60s and areas east end up in the low 70s.
A weak attendant cold front currently draped across the far northern Great Lakes will slide south across the area this morning as high pressure builds in behind tonight. Despite this, temperatures look to warm into the low 40s for some areas -- and even localized mid 40s near Manistee and Saginaw Bay. While these temperatures will be colder than recent nights, even lows in the upper single digits would still be near average with low 20s readings being around 10 degrees warmer than typical lows for the beginning of February. Aformentioned ridging will continue to build and form an Omega pattern formation over the central U. Primary Forecast Concerns: High pressure will build Friday keeping weather quiet and conditions dry for the entirety of the short term period.
High pressure will hold over west central and southwest Florida today with mostly sunny skies, light winds, and high temperatures in the upper 60s to around 70. Lows will be in the mid 40s north, upper 40s to around 50 central, and the lower 50s south. Decreasing cloudiness on Friday with highs around 70 to the lower 70s north/central. A reinforcing cold front pushed through yesterday which will help to keep temperatures cool for the rest of our work week. High pressure will be sitting over the area keep mainly sunny skies and light winds.
550 AM CST Thu Feb 1 2024 (Today) High pressure will dominate through the near and short term forecast yielding some very pleasant weather. Through the rest of the nighttime hours calm winds and decreasing dew point depressions will maintain a chance of freezing fog development with highest potential near and along rivers and valleys. Mid level ridging will dampen and push east throughout the day.
526 AM CST Thu Feb 1 2024 Today and Tonight: Ridging aloft will build into the region today. Meanwhile at the surface, high pressure will center itself east of the forecast area. Lows tonight will be slightly warmer as they range from the middle 30s to lower 40s.
603 AM EST Thu Feb 1 2024 Dry high pressure over the area today gives way to a dry cold front crossing the region from the north on Friday.
The upper level ridge will slide off to the east today, putting us in southwest flow aloft. Low pressure will develop to our northwest at the surface today, increasing the pressure gradient and increasing our winds. The stronger south/southwest winds will keep highs in the 70s once again this afternoon, even with the upper level ridge moving out. High temperatures will be slightly cooler in our southern counties where cloud cover is expected to be a little more dense. Dewpoints are forecast to jump into the low to mid 50s overnight, which will keep lows almost 20 degrees above normal.
Fog will continue to spread across western Wisconsin and into southwestern Minnesota over the next few hours before clearing out from northeast to southwest as drier air moves in behind a weak cold front by mid to late morning. This and the lack of any precip chances is thanks to a blocking high over the central CONUS.
637 AM CST Thu Feb 1 2024 Updated aviation portion for 12Z TAF issuance - Areas of dense fog and freezing fog could make for hazardous travel conditions in portions of central and east central Wisconsin this morning. Skies should start out sunny once the fog dissipates, but clouds will return from north to south during the day as a backdoor cold front arrives from the north. Temperatures will rise into the 40s in most places before the clouds and cooler air arrive. Highs will be around five degrees cooler than today, with the coolest temperatures near the bay and lake.
Temperatures will then trend towards normal values this weekend with a rain and snow mix possible on the lowlands. Southerly flow ahead of the low will promote continued above normal temperatures although with gradual cooling as a frontal boundary slowly moves east across Eastern Washington and North Idaho into tonight and Friday.
513 AM CST Thu Feb 1 2024 (Today) An extensive high cloud deck is present across eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas, and with a likelihood of it persisting across portions of the area well into the afternoon, it adds some degree of challenge to the high temperature forecast today.
947 AM EST Thu Feb 1 2024 Dry high pressure over the area today gives way to a dry cold front crossing the region from the north on Friday.
- Possibility for freezing drizzle and/or drizzle Friday night. Heading into Friday night, soundings look indicative of the possibility of some drizzle and/or freezing drizzle in eastern North Dakota.
347 AM CST Thu Feb 1 2024 Forecast discussion for routine morning forecast issuance - Areas of dense fog and freezing fog could make for hazardous travel conditions in portions of central and east central Wisconsin this morning. Skies should start out sunny once the fog dissipates, but clouds will return from north to south during the day as a backdoor cold front arrives from the north. Temperatures will rise into the 40s in most places before the clouds and cooler air arrive. Highs will be around five degrees cooler than today, with the coolest temperatures near the bay and lake.
Low lying areas have been impacted at the highest rate. Picking out the surface trof in the area is difficult with the lack of winds, but temperatures betray its location. Behind the front, already notably cooler air and clear skies are collocated with the patchy fog. Already this morning temps behind the sagging boundary are 10-15 degrees cooler than those ahead of it. Behind it with the cooler air in place and expected lingering fog, temps lag in the mid-40s. Best chances of precipitation wait for after midnight Friday night with the approach of an amplifying negatively tilted large scale trof. A lee cyclone's development on Friday will help produce moist southeasterly flow from the GoM.
This low will help in keep winds out of the southwest today, which will also aid in generating a downslope wind for the southern Panhandles. As for temperatures, look for them to bolster with aid of the southwesterly flow with afternoon high temperatures increasing into the high 60s to 70s.
The timing of this cirrus is allowing for the cooler morning temps to moderate slower, thus we're seeing cooler temps here this mid morning. /CME/ Today and Tonight: Ridging aloft will build into the region today. Meanwhile at the surface, high pressure will center itself east of the forecast area. Lows tonight will be slightly warmer as they range from the middle 30s to lower 40s.
643 AM EST Thu Feb 1 2024 A cold front will move through this evening into Friday, which will bring light rain and snow to parts of the area. A few lingering snow showers continue into Friday with the highest chances across the Finger Lakes region. Temperatures are expected to be slightly cooler, with highs in the mid to upper 30s. Some low level wind shear is present as well, both of these factors being favorable for freezing drizzle at the surface Friday night.
426 AM CST Thu Feb 1 2024 Today and Tonight: Ridging aloft will build into the region today. Meanwhile at the surface, high pressure will center itself east of the forecast area. Lows tonight will be slightly warmer as they range from the middle 30s to lower 40s.
Currently - The combination of High pressure over the southeastern United States and a mid latitude low well off the Carolina Coast is generating moderate to fresh north to northeasterly breezes across the Keys this morning. This flow has continued the rather long stretch of cooler and drier conditions. Temperatures are broadly in the lower 60s with dew points ranging from the upper 40s to lower 50s.
The anticipated low-pressure trough to the west remains on course to usher in a transitional phase today, marking a shift away from the prevailing high- pressure influence.
552 AM CST Thu Feb 1 2024 (Today through Friday afternoon) Upper level ridge begins to slide eastward over the course of today. Southwesterly flow takes hold and helps temperatures warm well into the 70s for most with the exception of the higher elevations. The main upper level trough enters the region Friday morning with a mid-level jet oriented west to east across Northern Mexico. Western areas reach into the mid to upper 60s and areas east end up in the low 70s.
230 AM MST Thu Feb 1 2024 MORNING DISCUSSION: Synoptic Setup: Forecast begins with a large ridge over the western two thirds of the CONUS and western half of Canada. A large trough is approaching from off the coast of California. Today: Ridge will amplify across eastern Montana toward the north allowing clear skies and dry conditions to move through the area with light winds. Tonight through Friday night: Trough will move on shore and begins pushing the ridge toward the east. However, the effects of the ridge will maintain mostly dry conditions through these periods.
Warmer temperatures are in the forecast across the Midsouth after a subfreezing start this morning.
Did trend closer to MOS guidance for highs this aftn, which again is warmer than the NBM output. Friday wl be a transition day, as a weak mid lvl ridge moves acrs AR, followed by a slow movg storm system that wl be working out of the eastern Rockies.
Satellite image shows an upper low spinning out near 49n/134W with a southerly flow aloft.
Light southwest surface winds continue to be reported at most surface wx stations at the moment, mixing the lower NBL and allowing 2-meter air temperature observations to remain above freezing, but the radiationally-cooled ground has created a shallow (below 2 meter) layer of saturated or nearly saturated sub- freezing air, and a few isolated reports of pavement frost have come in. Any fog that does develop should clear out later this morning, then a cold front sweeps from north to south across the CWA, bringing scattered to broken cloud cover in behind it.
930 AM EST Thu Feb 1 2024 A cold front will move through this evening into Friday, which will bring light rain and snow to parts of the area. A few lingering snow showers continue into Friday with the highest chances across the Finger Lakes region. Temperatures are expected to be slightly cooler, with highs in the mid to upper 30s. Some low level wind shear is present as well, both of these factors being favorable for freezing drizzle at the surface Friday night.
527 AM CST Thu Feb 1 2024 Warmer temperatures are in the forecast across the Midsouth after a subfreezing start this morning.
The better dynamics should arrive overnight as the upper low moves into west Texas and mid-level heights start to fall. Hi- res models show a line of thunderstorms developing by midnight Friday night, so this appears to be the best chance for the highest thunderstorm coverage.
254 PM EST Thu Feb 1 2024 - Quiet weather with cooler temperatures tonight. Temperatures are expected to be cooler than the last few nights but still be above normal for early February. Lows generally ranging from the mid teens north to the low and mid 20s south. As the ridge axis builds directly overhead, an omega blocking pattern signature builds, with troughing associated with an atmospheric river event being diverted along the Gulf coast region, with troughing currently overhead being forced off the Atlantic coast by the aforementioned ridging moving overhead. Could see some patchy areas of fog overnight and into the morning hours each day as what is left of our "ripe" snowpack oozes some moisture into the low levels. Daytime Temps: Certainly a lock for above normal warmth as the ridge axis is forced overhead.
A relatively benign forecast period is in store with the only "hiccup" being a weak trough dropping through the region tonight into Friday with a back door front dropping south from MI into the area. Scouring of the clouds should occur Friday afternoon, but most likely by the time it occurs the combination of slightly colder air behind the front and limited heating potential will leave highs in the lower 40s (still above the normal highs in the lower 30s).
Fog will burn off into midday, with a cold frontal passage this afternoon leading to gustier northerly winds into this evening. The observed cold front has so far been slower and less intense than modeling had previously suggested, so considering reducing wind gusts in southwestern Wisconsin overnight tonight. Light southwest surface winds continue to be reported at most surface wx stations at the moment, mixing the lower NBL and allowing 2-meter air temperature observations to remain above freezing, but the radiationally-cooled ground has created a shallow (below 2 meter) layer of saturated or nearly saturated sub- freezing air, and a few isolated reports of pavement frost have come in. Any fog that does develop should clear out later this morning, then a cold front sweeps from north to south across the CWA, bringing scattered to broken cloud cover in behind it.
High pressure has kept the Northern Rockies very warm for this time of year but that is changing. High pressure is sliding to the east as a Pacific trough slides south along the west coast.