Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Still getting some reports of light snow/flurries across the northern Red River Valley into western MN, but visibility is 3SM at the worst and most of the impacts are left over from the rain freezing last night. So did back off on the high pops we had thru mid morning. all areas are below freezing. There is a short wave trough passing thru Sat night but at this time no precipitation is mentioned.
239 PM CST Fri Feb 9 2024 - Temperatures for the weekend will be slightly cooler than they have been this week, though still 5 to 15 degrees above average for this time of year.
One last wave will dive south tonight on the west side of the deep western US trough to keep the scattered showers going overnight, especially San Diego County, though HREF does show some activity in the San Bernardino Mountains too with hourly probabilities of measurable precip reaching 60% at 3 AM there.
257 PM EST Fri Feb 9 2024 (This afternoon through Saturday) High pressure has moved off the coast of the Carolinas.
1026 AM EST Fri Feb 9 2024 Subsidence inversion remains in place across South Florida as a mid-level ridge continues to nose-in across the region. A slight moistening of the low-level boundary layer from the surface to 850mb will allow for some shallow strato-cumulus clouds to propagate across the area with minimal impacts aside from drizzle or isolated instances of light rain. Temperatures are already in the low 70s which is a stark contrast to earlier this week. (Today through Saturday) The mid-to-upper level ridge will remain the dominant feature influencing the local weather as the weekend approaches, resulting in dry weather conditions prevailing. As high pressure shifts into the western Atlantic, winds shift further from northeasterly to an easterly direction.
227 PM PST Fri Feb 9 2024 Slick conditions will be possible during the Friday morning commute for parts of Eastern Washington and Northern Idaho courtesy of light snow and refreezing of moisture.
A trough will dig through the four corners region on Saturday, keeping precipitation mainly south and west of our forecast area through the weekend.
At the surface, high pressure off the Carolina coast was pumping very warm and moist air into the area. While skies have become mostly cloudy, there's been enough sunshine to allow temperatures to heat up to the mid 70s to lower 80s, although winds off the cooler gulf waters have dropped temperatures back a couple degrees along the Mississippi coast.
There is the potential for patchy freezing in the valleys for the overnight. Given the previous day's precipitation, have put in patchy freezing fog for the valley locations in northern Nevada. In its place, a high amplitude ridge will build into the area for Saturday and Saturday night.
(This evening through Saturday) With the passage of a cold front tonight, winds shift to the north and overnight lows will range from near freezing (northwest OK) to upper 40's (southeast OK). Daytime highs will be a bit cooler than recent days with highs in the 50s.
Afternoon water vapor imagery shows an upper level low digging into the southwestern U. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop, with the higher rainfall totals expected across our eastern counties. Temperatures will be a bit cooler behind the boundary, with highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Some of the high res guidance also develops additional thunderstorms in the afternoon in the warm sector south of the cold front.
Clearing conditions Saturday night will allow for very cold overnight temperatures from the single digits in the mountains to 20s in the lower terrain.
Upper level analysis shows near zonal flow across the region, with a long wave trough across the western US.
530 PM CST Fri Feb 9 2024 - Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms between 6 PM and 2 AM this evening/tonight mainly along and east of the Highway 65 corridor.
(Tonight) Medium chances (30-60%) for rain showers and a few thunderstorms will continue overnight as a cold front draped across the Mid South slowly approaches the area.
Once the low clouds and fog burn off, we'll have partly cloudy skies in the afternoon.
620 PM EST Fri Feb 9 2024 (Rest of today through Saturday) A subsidence inversion remains in place across South Florida as a mid- level ridge continues to nose-in across the region. A slight moistening of the low-level boundary layer from the surface to 850mb will allow for some shallow strato-cumulus clouds to propagate across the area with minimal impacts aside from drizzle or isolated instances of light rain. Temperatures will only drop into the upper 60s along the east coast of South Florida with a few spots near the coast staying in the low 70s.
Temperatures: this afternoon we'll see mid 70s to mid 80s across the region with tomorrow's highs about 5 degrees cooler.
442 PM CST Fri Feb 9 2024 - Temperatures for the weekend will be slightly cooler than they have been this week, though still 5 to 15 degrees above average for this time of year.
Above average warmth this afternoon will carry into the overnight hours as lows only fall to the low 50s inland and mid/upper 50s near the coast.
Stacked ridging over the region continues to warm and moisten the atmosphere this evening into the weekend.
At the low-levels, surface analysis places an area of high pressure now offshore of the Eastern Seaboard, allowing winds to veer to the east to southeast. Meanwhile aloft, a dominant ridge is bridging cloud cover over the Gulf coast down to the Florida Peninsula.
614 PM CST Fri Feb 9 2024 - Patchy freezing possible fog after midnight north west of Garden City. A stationary front has stalled out near the highway 400 corridor this afternoon. To the north a overall cooler airmass was in place with northeast upslope winds enhancing the advancing cu field developing over northwest, west central Kansas and southeast Colorado. A limited area of west central Kansas This will setup colder temperatures with clouds spreading over the area Saturday in advance of the incoming trough from the west. Drizzle or rain showers might be expected anywhere west of the highway 283 corridor beginning in the afternoon, but the better rates wonât be noted until the late evening hours when snow probabilities jump to the 50-75 percent range across the southwest counties nearing midnight.
One last wave will dive south tonight on the west side of the deep western US trough to keep the scattered showers going overnight, especially San Diego County, though 12Z HREF does show some activity in the San Bernardino Mountains too with hourly probabilities of measurable precip reaching 60% at 3 AM there.
Temperatures will be in the low 50s across the area, with coastal NE FL seeing warmer temperatures in the mid 50s. Above average warmth this afternoon will carry into the overnight hours as lows only fall to the low 50s inland and mid/upper 50s near the coast.
The cold front poised to move through the area tonight remains just to the north in southern Kansas, and should begin to cross into northeast Oklahoma just before midnight. Expect cooler temperatures and an increase in northerly winds behind the front, although persistent high clouds will prevent temperatures from dropping as low as they could in spots. (Saturday through Friday) Aforementioned cold front will move into northeast Oklahoma early tomorrow morning and progress southeastward throughout the morning hours, bringing much cooler temperatures and breezy northerly winds. Temperatures tomorrow will be back near normal for this time of year, but much cooler than recent days. By Saturday night the large scale western trough will begin to eject out across the Southern Rockies and into the Southern Plains.
(This afternoon through Saturday) High pressure has moved off the coast of the Carolinas.
Looking ahead, minimum temperatures may be adjusted down to better account for areas with ample snowfall on the ground: clear nights returning with good radiational cooling enhanced by snow cover will likely result in very cold nights for the higher elevations. Clearing conditions Saturday night will allow for very cold overnight temperatures from the single digits in the mountains to 20s in the lower terrain.
520 PM CST Fri Feb 9 2024 (This evening through Saturday) With the passage of a cold front tonight, winds shift to the north and overnight lows will range from near freezing (northwest OK) to upper 40's (southeast OK). Daytime highs will be a bit cooler than recent days with highs in the 50s.
216 AM CST Sat Feb 10 2024 Forecast discussion for routine morning forecast issuance - Cooler this weekend, though daytime highs will still be 5 to 10 degrees above average.
1143 PM CST Fri Feb 9 2024 - Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms between 6 PM and 2 AM this evening/tonight mainly along and east of the Highway 65 corridor.
315 AM EST Sat Feb 10 2024 - Tranquil weather this weekend - Limited chances for precipitation during upcoming work week - Temperatures back closer to normal through the work week - Tranquil weather this weekend West to northwest winds will continue to advect a cooler and drier airmass into our area today.
Even though temperatures will be much cooler than yesterday, we are still looking at above normal conditions with average highs this time of year in the upper 30s to low 40s.
1143 PM CST Fri Feb 9 2024 - Patchy freezing possible fog after midnight north west of Garden City. A stationary front has stalled out near the highway 400 corridor this afternoon. To the north a overall cooler airmass was in place with northeast upslope winds enhancing the advancing cu field developing over northwest, west central Kansas and southeast Colorado. A limited area of west central Kansas This will setup colder temperatures with clouds spreading over the area Saturday in advance of the incoming trough from the west. Drizzle or rain showers might be expected anywhere west of the highway 283 corridor beginning in the afternoon, but the better rates wonât be noted until the late evening hours when snow probabilities jump to the 50-75 percent range across the southwest counties nearing midnight.
1030 PM CST Fri Feb 9 2024 - Temperatures for the weekend will be slightly cooler than they have been this week, though still 5 to 15 degrees above average for this time of year.
With H85 temps a good 6 to 8 degrees cooler than a few days ago, expect the entire area to be in the 40s for highs today.
- Cooler but still averaging above normal temperatures are expected next work week with occasional clipper type systems passing nearby. Through Saturday Night: Regional water vapor imagery with overlaid observations depict a departing low pressure system in southwestern Ontario and a weak frontal zone draped across central Illinois. Mostly sunny skies are treating our area with well above average temperatures in the lower 50s (northwest) to lower 60s (southeast). As a result, tomorrow looks quiet with light winds and cooler temperatures with highs in the lower 40s.
A northern stream trough of low pressure will weaken today into tonight which should continue the downward trend of winds at the surface. High pressure settles in tonight and will allow for light winds.
1234 AM EST Sat Feb 10 2024 (Rest of today through Saturday) A subsidence inversion remains in place across South Florida as a mid- level ridge continues to nose-in across the region. A slight moistening of the low-level boundary layer from the surface to 850mb will allow for some shallow strato-cumulus clouds to propagate across the area with minimal impacts aside from drizzle or isolated instances of light rain. Temperatures will only drop into the upper 60s along the east coast of South Florida with a few spots near the coast staying in the low 70s.
1049 PM CST Fri Feb 9 2024 (This evening through Saturday) With the passage of a cold front tonight, winds shift to the north and overnight lows will range from near freezing (northwest OK) to upper 40's (southeast OK). Daytime highs will be a bit cooler than recent days with highs in the 50s.
1028 PM CST Fri Feb 9 2024 - Temperatures for the weekend will be slightly cooler than they have been this week, though still 5 to 15 degrees above average for this time of year.
A moisture-starved cold front was the focus of a couple showers and thunderstorms late Friday night but have diminished as of this midnight writing. Notably colder today (good-bye record-breaking 60s) as a secondary cold front, currently approaching northern Illinois, moves through.
- Much colder air possible by the end of the work week with highs in the lower 20s, or 5 to 15 degrees below average.
254 AM CST Sat Feb 10 2024 - It will be a bit cooler today as clouds are likely to linger for a good part of the day.
1046 PM CST Fri Feb 9 2024 (Tonight) Medium chances (30-60%) for rain showers and a few thunderstorms will continue overnight as a cold front draped across the Mid South slowly approaches the area.
GOES water vapor imagery/RAP 500 mb heights early today show a mid-level trough digging across the Desert Southwest with a subtropical jet/moisture axis extending from the southern plains into the lower Mississippi Valley.
952 PM PST Fri Feb 9 2024 Slick conditions will be possible during the Friday morning commute for parts of Eastern Washington and Northern Idaho courtesy of light snow and refreezing of moisture.
Currently - Large scale ridging remains firmly in control of Keys weather this evening. This will elongate the warmer maritime residence time, resulting in further warming and moistening. Overnight lows will struggle to slip below 70, particularly given that winds are now arriving from the warmer Atlantic side for most of the island chain. The low level wind speeds is expected to remain in the moderate range and develop some veering. High pressure of the southeast Atlantic coast will maintain gentle to moderate mostly easterly breezes on Keys waters through the overnight.
152 AM MST Sat Feb 10 2024 As the trough axis approaches south-central MT, it slowly pushes the snow to the southwest, and already reflectivity returns have moved off of the Beartooth Mountains and Foothills and towards the Bighorn Mountain and Foothills.
WV imagery indicates a southwesterly flow aloft prevailing across the Western High Plains downstream of a strong upper upper level trough of low pressure digging southeast through the Great Basin. Near the surface, a broad area of high pressure is spreading southeast through the Northern High Plains. Precip chances (50-70%) continue for a good portion of southwest Kansas later this afternoon into tonight as the SREF indicates a deep and fairly amplified upper level trough of low pressure turning eastward through the Desert Southwest this afternoon, then moving farther east into west Texas tonight.
A surface cold front has cleared almost all of SE MI with gradual cold air advection now taking place in its wake. Hi-res models have locations from roughly Port Huron to Adrian south having the highest probabilities to retain sunshine into the afternoon, promoting a return to afternoon highs in the mid 40s. Locations under stratus will see highs in the upper 30s to low 40s, most likely across the Tri-Cities and Thumb noting the overall cooler thermal profile.
530 AM CST Sat Feb 10 2024 (Today and tonight) The large scale broad mid-level trough will continue to deepen as it slowly progresses east today. The trough itself will approach the Plains tonight with another round of rain developing southwest of the forecast area and spreading northeast into the area overnight before becoming more widespread Sunday.
This cloud cover will help keep things a bit warmer than temperatures would otherwise be this morning. The cloud cover will burn off later today under broad ridging, and temperatures will become more mild this weekend.
Abundantly dry will remain present aloft as the region will continue to be under a weakening upper level ridge, but there will be enough mid-level moisture that fair weather stratus/stratocumulus clouds will still form across the area. Temperatures will continue to increase slightly both days this weekend as ongoing S/SE winds stick around under the ridge. Temperatures in the upper 70s to near 80 are expected for both Saturday and Sunday with some spots on Sunday (mainly interior sections) having the chance to reach the low 80s.
520 AM CST Sat Feb 10 2024 (Today through Sunday) The most significant event during this portion of the total forecast will be the late Sunday morning to early Sunday afternoon passage of a cold front through Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley. By this afternoon, however, drier weather will return in the wake of this disturbance, and persist through the end of the forecast period despite the approach and passage of the Sunday cold front.
A closed upper low near the Four Corners with a trough axis extending northeast across the central Rockies will move into New Mexico this afternoon and west Texas tonight. High temperatures today will range from the lower 30s in Colorado to the lower 40s in north central Kansas and lows tonight will be in the teens and 20s.
720 AM EST Sat Feb 10 2024 - Tranquil weather this weekend - Limited chances for precipitation during upcoming work week - Temperatures back closer to normal through the work week - Tranquil weather this weekend West to northwest winds will continue to advect a cooler and drier airmass into our area today.
Issued 347 AM CST Sat Feb 10 2024 Today through Sunday: High pressure will begin to build in from the west today, with breezy winds gradually easing by later today into tonight.
Patchy freezing fog is possible in the valleys to begin this morning but will burn off by mid morning. Patchy freezing for may exits across some valleys this morning for Humboldt, Elko, Northern Lander and Northern Eureka counties. Otherwise, dry weather returns to the area as a ridge of high pressure builds into the state this afternoon and Sunday. Lows Sunday night will be slightly warmer, with most in the teens, and warmer spots getting into the lower 20s.
Winter Weather Advisories remain in effect for the Owl Creeks and Bighorn Mountains, as well as the lower elevations of the southern Bighorn Basin and Johnson County. Brief ridging developing for Sunday increases temperatures a few degrees, with otherwise dry conditions expected across the area. A trough dips down Sunday night, flattening the ridge to a more zonal pattern.
The axis of our recent trough of low pressure is now departing eastward across the state of Wyoming, with height rises expected over the next 24 hours as brief (but initially highly amplified) ridging builds into the nrn Rockies.
with southern Middle TN seeing the higher end of that along with repeated rounds of showers late tonight along a boundary stretched from southwest to northeast across the area.
- Much colder air possible by the end of the work week with highs in the lower 20s, or 5 to 15 degrees below average. An upper trough will also slide through Saturday night into Sunday. The overall upper level flow pattern appears to undergo transition, with the Arctic Oscillation possibly becoming deeply negative with a strong upper level ridge over Alaska.
Locally higher amounts are possible, particularly at the higher elevations where upglide may improve precipitation duration and efficiency under the weak frontal forcing.
(Today through Tonight) High pressure will dominate the weather pattern today with broken to overcast cirrus moving across the area.
Most accumulating snowfall activity favors the higher terrain to the southwest of NE Montana due to the storm track throughout the period.
A Pacific Northwest system will exit the area today, allowing high pressure to return to start the upcoming week.
This morning is off to a warmer and more humid start than yesterday as a SE flow continues in the low-levels.
525 AM CST Sat Feb 10 2024 - Temperatures will trend cooler, but remain above normal. A cooler air mass behind the front will limit high temperatures into the low 40s, potentially only the upper 30s along the Wisconsin border, with similar conditions forecasted on Sunday. It will be slightly cooler than recent days, but afternoon high temperatures are expected to remain above normal as morning low temperatures drop below freezing each night. There is a deeper, longer wave trough currently over the intermountain west that will move eastward through the day.
508 AM CST Sat Feb 10 2024 - It will be a bit cooler today as clouds are likely to linger for a good part of the day.
(Today and tonight) The large scale broad mid-level trough will continue to deepen as it slowly progresses east today. The trough itself will approach the Plains tonight with another round of rain developing southwest of the forecast area and spreading northeast into the area overnight before becoming more widespread Sunday.
GOES water vapor imagery/RAP 500 mb heights early today show a mid-level trough digging across the Desert Southwest with a subtropical jet/moisture axis extending from the southern plains into the lower Mississippi Valley. Weak ridging will develop across the area this morning.
Patchy freezing fog is possible in the valleys to begin this morning but will burn off by mid morning. Patchy freezing fog is possible in the valleys to begin this morning but will burn off by mid morning. Patchy freezing for may exits across some valleys this morning for Humboldt, Elko, Northern Lander and Northern Eureka counties. Otherwise, dry weather returns to the area as a ridge of high pressure builds into the state this afternoon and Sunday. Lows Sunday night will be slightly warmer, with most in the teens, and warmer spots getting into the lower 20s.
Areas of frost are possible in the valleys, locally in the low desert tonight into Sunday morning. WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO Satellite imagery at 3 AM was showing areas of clouds in the valleys, against coastal mountain slopes, and in the High Desert. A few scattered showers mainly in the High Desert, San Bernardino Mountains, and San Diego County will diminish a few hours after sunrise. A trough of low pressure to our east and building high pressure just to our west, will set up an offshore pressure gradient this weekend. Lows in the valleys, locally in the lower deserts are expected to fall to the low to mid-30s by early Sunday.
Both of these are around 10 degrees warmer than normal for this time of the year.
850 mb temperatures (-8C to -12C) over warmer Lake Superior surface temperatures (+1C to +3C) will support lake-induced instability of 150-200 J/kg, enough for light snow showers to linger into this afternoon before ending. HREF guidance also suggests some scattering out of the low clouds and some sunshine across east-central MN, the North Shore, and portions of NW WI this afternoon as the drier air works in. Look for temperatures to remain a few degrees above normal again today, with afternoon highs ranging from the mid-20s in northern MN where the clouds hang on to the low 30s in east-central MN and NW WI where more clearing is expected.
508 AM CST Sat Feb 10 2024 Updated aviation portion for 12Z TAF issuance - Cooler this weekend, though daytime highs will still be 5 to 10 degrees above average. However, a high pressure system building across the northern Plains will bring drier air into the region and end the snow across the far north by this afternoon. Cooler temperatures are expected today, but will still 5 to 10 degrees above normal for this time of year. The high pressure will sink south tonight as the ridge builds over the western Great Lakes region. Given the mostly clear or clear skies expected tonight, went cooler than the NBM for lows.
(Today through Sunday) The most significant event during this portion of the total forecast will be the late Sunday morning to early Sunday afternoon passage of a cold front through Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley. By this afternoon, however, drier weather will return in the wake of this disturbance, and persist through the end of the forecast period despite the approach and passage of the Sunday cold front.