Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
647 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024 - A slight risk of severe weather (level 2 on a scale of 5) will develop late this afternoon through the evening hours as a cold front sweeps across the area.
919 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024 - A slight risk of severe weather (level 2 on a scale of 5) will develop late this afternoon through the evening hours as a cold front sweeps across the area.
With surface ridging off our our east, a light southerly surface wind will persist, thus maintaining low-level Gulf moisture through the period. A westerly to northwesterly flow aloft towards the beginning of the period becomes more northwesterly during the middle to latter part of this week as the local area becomes positioned in between an upper ridge to our west and a digging upper trough over the north and eastern US. Down at the surface, high pressure remains in place over the western Atlantic and eastern Gulf with a light onshore flow continually ushering in warm, moist air off the Gulf waters. Later in the week and into the early part of the weekend, a late season cold front is expected to approach and push into the area.
740 PM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024 A weak front moving into the area will washout tonight allowing high pressure to build in.
754 PM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024 High pressure will move farther off the Carolina coast this week. Southerly winds will bring warmer and more humid air northward, resulting in spotty mainly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms each day.
There is a boundary along the northern track of the earlier MCS with warmer and more humid (and therefore more unstable) air from roughly Tulsa down through Fort Smith. Low temperatures will range from the mid 60s to the low 70s.
905 PM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024 A back door cold front approaches from the east overnight, then crosses the area from east to west on Monday, before dissipating Monday night.
A cold front will approach the region late in the week leading to increasing rain chances and a chance for severe weather. High pressure offshore will promote weak southerly flow across the region. As an upper trough moves offshore through the early portion of the day, the deeper moisture appears to shift east of the forecast area.
941 PM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024 A weak front moving into the area will washout tonight allowing high pressure to build in.
An outflow boundary worked its way westward from the Upper Keys to the Lower Keys and is now moving across the offshore Gulf waters near the Dry Tortugas and across the western Straits of Florida. Also, we have troughing at both the mid to upper levels. The upper level trough was also accompanied by a 50-60 knot jet streak which is finally a trigger to help provide some lift in the atmosphere to get storms. From synopsis, high pressure off the Carolina coast will weaken as it lengthens eastward into the Atlantic over the next few days.
1244 AM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024 - A slight risk of severe weather (level 2 on a scale of 5) will develop late this afternoon through the evening hours as a cold front sweeps across the area. An area of low pressure and associated frontal boundary will push eastward across the forecast area on Tuesday, bringing a 30-70% chance for showers and thunderstorms, mainly east of the James River.
339 AM EDT Mon Jun 3 2024 High pressure will cover the western Atlantic and southeast United States through Tuesday.
351 AM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024 - May see a few strong to severe storms Tuesday afternoon, but will be dependent on recovery from scattered morning storms and timing of a cold front pushing through the region.
However, the low-level jet will be active this evening, which lends some concern to the notion that we could re-destabilize this evening in advance of another MCS.
400 AM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024 - Scattered thunderstorms are possible (25-40%) this afternoon and again tomorrow morning ahead of an approaching cold front.
Ridge axis of high pressure over the west Atlantic will remain north of central FL, keeping an onshore flow across the region. High pressure will drift farther into the western Atlantic through mid-week, with the ridge axis forecast to extend towards the Florida peninsula through late week.
In fact, we will see some upcoming ridging into tonight and Monday. That previously mentioned upper ridging could send our highs into the upper 80s to near 90F on Monday and possibly Tuesday as well.
- Tuesday may be the next chance for severe weather, but will be dependent on recovery from scattered morning convection and timing of a cold front pushing through the region.
1230 AM EDT Mon Jun 3 2024 A back door cold front approaches from the east late tonight, then crosses the area from east to west on Monday, before dissipating Monday night.
We may have an opportunity to reload this afternoon across southern Kansas where a residual outflow boundary/weak warm frontal segment may reside providing a focus for isolated or widely scattered afternoon storms as a pv anomaly pivots over Kansas during the late afternoon/early evening hours. A capping inversion may be in place across southern Kansas early in the period as the H7 thermal ridge translates over the area supporting better coverage of storms across our central KS counties with greater uncertainty further south.
Otherwise, expected precip and cloud cover to keep temps a few degrees cooler today, much like yesterday, than what was expected a day or two ago.
345 AM EDT Mon Jun 3 2024 High pressure will move farther off the Carolina coast this week.
(Today through Tuesday Night) Guidance continues to agree that the mid level flow will be largely quasi-zonal until late in the period and that a series of short wave troughs/mesoscale features will pass through or near the forecast area.
With surface ridging off our our east, a light southerly surface wind will persist, thus maintaining low-level Gulf moisture through the period.
- Highest chances for precip area wide are Tuesday afternoon and evening as a cold front sweeps through the region. Tuesday afternoon and evening is still looking promising for convection to form along an approaching cold front from the northwest.
Meanwhile, ridge of high pressure to remain just northeast of the area today and Tuesday keeping east to southeast flow in place. The highest chances will be for areas along the west coast, mostly south of the I-4 corridor. Cloud coverage today should help temperatures to stay in the low 90s, which would make it the "coolest day" on the forecast. By mid week, an upper level disturbance begins to approach the region pushing the aforementioned ridge south.
Warming temperatures and dry conditions are expected as high pressure builds into the into Arizona for the start of the week. Slightly cooler temperatures return near the end of the week, along with the potential for a few showers and thunderstorms. Occasional high clouds overnight, but overall clear skies as high pressure gradually builds into Arizona. Warmer temperatures and continued dry conditions ensue for Monday. The remainder of today will feature gusty SW winds this afternoon as a trough continues to move east across the region. Monday and Tuesday will see high pressure gradually building into the region with temperatures warming following this past weekend's brief drop in temperatures.
(Monday through Tuesday) Thunderstorms continue from Lufkin to Alexandra and under the upper low comma head near Monroe, but the threat for any further severe activity other than lightning has weakened and moved out of our area.
(Monday through Tuesday night) Early morning fog will quickly dissipate and the end result will be a mostly sunny and rain-free June day on Monday as a subtle ridge axis noses into the area. It will still feel quite humid, however, and with highs in the mid to upper 80s and peak heat indices in the lower 90s.
124 AM EDT Mon Jun 3 2024 High pressure will move farther off the Carolina coast this week. Southerly winds will bring warmer and more humid air northward, resulting in spotty mainly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms each day.
234 AM EDT Mon Jun 3 2024 A weak front moving into the area will washout tonight allowing high pressure to build in. The high will keep the area predominantly warm and dry into Tuesday. Showers and thunderstorms will return midweek as a cold front approaches and moves through the region. Lows will mainly be in the lower 60s. Meanwhile moderate amplitude mid level ridging will also develop. This will lead to dry and warmer conditions. Highs will be in the lower to mid 80s with lows in the lower to mid 60s. An upper level trough and cold front will start approaching the Ohio Valley on Tuesday into Tuesday night the northwest.
Attention turns to the Pacific Northwest region late Monday as a longwave trough moves eastward and digs and negatively tilts into the upper Midwest into the day Tuesday. MLCAPEs at or topping 2000 J/kg are likely ahead of a surface cold front Tuesday afternoon with marginal deep layer shear for storm organization. As for flash flooding, the heavy rainfall parameters continue to look favorable with high precipitable water values, deep warm cloud depths, and 850-300mb flow somewhat parallel to the cold front. While our area missed some of the potential priming rains yesterday/yesterday evening, forecast rainfall would near the lowest values of 1 and 3 hour flash flood guidance in our area.
An upper level level ridge and southerly low level flow will bring above normal temps pushing near 90 in some areas.
244 AM EDT Mon Jun 3 2024 A back door cold front will cross the area from east to west today, before dissipating near the Quebec border tonight.
Nearly zonal mid-level flow will be in place across much of the southern US while ridging remains compressed to the southwest.
A cold front will approach the region late in the week leading to increasing rain chances and a chance for severe weather. Weak upper level ridge will be moving off the coast early in the day. So the low to mid level lapse rates are a little steeper than previous days.
919 PM PDT Sun Jun 2 2024 A weak trough over the West Coast will keep a deep marine layer in place through Monday.
Temperatures this afternoon will reach 100 degrees across western portions of the CWA with temperatures in the lower to mid 90s across the eastern portions.
The start time for these is likely to be during the mid to late afternoon hours as heating maximizes and a trough passes across the region. The rain showers and thunderstorms will progress with the trough in a W to E fashion across the panhandles through the evening.
- Storm chances continues Monday and Tuesday, with the highest potential for additional severe weather being Tuesday.
319 AM EDT Mon Jun 3 2024 Weak high pressure builds in from the north through Tuesday for mostly fair weather outside of a few afternoon showers both days. Temperatures will run above normal through mid week with afternoon sea breezes bringing cooler conditions to the coast.
This puts our area in a quasi- zonal flow/weak ridging pattern.
Synoptic overview and current conditions: Water vapor imagery and upper level analysis show generally westerly flow over the CONUS with a mid/upper level trough axis over the Rockies. Given the high moisture content continuing over the area, the excessive rainfall risk will continue.
High temps today will settle into the low 90s along the coast to around 105 across the Brush Country. Went ahead and extended the High Risk of Rip Currents through Tuesday evening.
Ridge axis extending from an elongated area of high pressure centered over Bermuda will continue the onshore flow and progressive Atlantic sea breeze once again today.
Some high pressure will pass over the region this morning. Tuesday, a cold front moves west to east across the area. While instability will exist east of the James, bulk shear isn't collocated with the higher CAPE values until the cold front moves into western MN.
- Little or no precipitation Wed-Sun with seasonal temperatures and lower humidities Our pattern will undergo a fairly significant change through the period transitioning from one that remains active with lower amplitude flow, to one less progressive with much higher amplitude as a large eastern CONUS closed low and corresponding western ridge keep a drier regime in place for at least several days. Some chances will still linger Monday and Monday night with weak waves continuing to traverse the developing southwest flow aloft ahead of the maturing northern Plains upper level trough.
- More storms and showers late tomorrow afternoon into the overnight hours ahead of a passing cold front.
Storms should develop along a lee trough late this afternoon either along the Colorado border or just east of it. This activity should then head east and be along the Highway 283 corridor by mid evening.
905 AM EDT Mon Jun 3 2024 A ridge of high pressure aloft will strengthen slightly as it amplifies northward today and overnight.
VFR conditions will continue until 06Z tonight, then a band of LCL MVFR conditions will develop along a cold front as it passes through northeastern Wyoming and western South Dakota early Tuesday morning. Windy conditions will develop behind the cold front on Tuesday.
945 AM EDT Mon Jun 3 2024 Aside from an isolated shower or thunderstorm across the higher terrain, dry conditions are expected through Tuesday.
651 AM EDT Mon Jun 3 2024 High pressure will move farther off the Carolina coast this week.
(Today through Tuesday) Key Message: *Above normal temperatures Mid-level ridging will support above normal temperatures in the short term. Low temperatures will generally range from the upper 70s to the lower 80s. Confidence is on the low side for now.
627 AM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024 (Today through Tuesday Night) Guidance continues to agree that the mid level flow will be largely quasi-zonal until late in the period and that a series of short wave troughs/mesoscale features will pass through or near the forecast area.
Hotter temperatures and dry conditions are expected as high pressure builds into the into Arizona for much of this week. Slightly cooler temperatures expected by the weekend, along with the potential for a few showers and thunderstorms.
956 AM EDT Mon Jun 3 2024 High pressure will cover the western Atlantic and southeast United States through Tuesday.
644 AM EDT Mon Jun 3 2024 High pressure will cover the western Atlantic and southeast United States through Tuesday.
657 AM EDT Mon Jun 3 2024 A ridge of high pressure aloft will strengthen slightly as it amplifies northward today and overnight.
The low cigs should begin to lift within the next couple of hrs, as the low level inversion weakens with increased mixing. High pressure layered over the southern Atlantic will then maintain seasonably warm conditions/temps later today, as highs climb mainly into the mid/upper 80s.
1043 AM EDT Mon Jun 3 2024 A ridge of high pressure aloft will strengthen slightly as it amplifies northward today and overnight.
623 AM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024 - Scattered thunderstorms are possible (25-40%) this afternoon and again tomorrow morning ahead of an approaching cold front.
545 AM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024 - May see a few strong to severe storms Tuesday afternoon, but will be dependent on recovery from scattered morning storms and timing of a cold front pushing through the region.
As of 10 AM, a cloudline was beginning to develop across the Lower Keys and will need to be monitored for further convective development. clouds and rain are occurring, temperatures are being kept on the cooler side. With a healthy cloudline going up over the Lower Keys, this will serve as a focal point for new activity at least within the next 1-3 hours. An Atlantic ridge will extend a ridge westward across the southeastern United States over the next few days. A mid latitude low riding through the eastern United States through the second half of the week will nudge the Atlantic ridge southwards across Florida.
641 AM EDT Mon Jun 3 2024 Weak high pressure builds in from the north through Tuesday for mostly fair weather outside of a few afternoon showers both days. Temperatures will run above normal through mid week with afternoon sea breezes bringing cooler conditions to the coast.
640 AM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024 (Today through Tuesday) Key Message: *Above normal temperatures Mid-level ridging will support above normal temperatures in the short term. Low temperatures will generally range from the upper 70s to the lower 80s. Confidence is on the low side for now.
The high pressure will continue to dominate the weather pattern for the next several days as our temperatures will continue to climb back into record territory.
An upper trough extending from the mid-Atlantic states to the SE coast of FL will shift farther E today as a narrow ridge builds from the SE GA coast to the E Great Lakes.
814 AM EDT Mon Jun 3 2024 A ridge of high pressure aloft will strengthen slightly as it amplifies northward today and overnight.
214 AM PDT Mon Jun 3 2024 An area of low pressure will bring light showers, increased cloud cover, cooler temperatures, and increased breezes through this evening.
1047 AM EDT Mon Jun 3 2024 Weak high pressure will build across the region, resulting in mainly dry weather through Tuesday, although an isolated shower or thunderstorm can't be ruled out during the afternoon hours.
(Today through Tuesday) This AM, the upper trough that we have been following the past couple of days is now along the Eastern Seaboard. We have a small temporary mini upper ridge allowing for a break from rain.
736 AM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024 (Today through Tuesday) This AM, the upper trough that we have been following the past couple of days is now along the Eastern Seaboard. We have a small temporary mini upper ridge allowing for a break from rain.
A cold front will push through later this morning through the afternoon hours. Strong high pressure will build over the western U.
1007 AM EDT Mon Jun 3 2024 High pressure will move farther off the Carolina coast this week.
- Round of showers moves across the Central mountains tonight with upper trough.
Warming temperatures and lighter winds are expected midweek as a ridge of high pressure builds over the region.
- More storms and showers late tomorrow afternoon into the overnight hours ahead of a passing cold front. but also implies the low (5-15%) potential for storms to materialize at all in central IL.
A broader view of the upper air pattern depicts the next trough over the Intermountain West, which will set the stage for tomorrow's weather. For Tuesday, the aforementioned upper trough is progged to move across the northern Plains while pushing a cold front across the region.
139 PM EDT Mon Jun 3 2024 A ridge of high pressure aloft will strengthen slightly as it amplifies northward today and overnight.
1233 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024 (Today through Tuesday) Key Message: *Above normal temperatures Mid-level ridging will support above normal temperatures in the short term. Low temperatures will generally range from the upper 70s to the lower 80s. Confidence is on the low side for now.
Locally 1 to 2 inches of rainfall are possible with the high rain rates along the leading line of convection.
A cold front trailing off a Saskatchewan low will bring some showers to the region tonight through Tuesday. An upper trough follows behind the sfc front bringing in caa.
High pressure remains just to the northeast today leading to light easterly flow. The high pressure will continue to dominate the weather pattern for the next several days as our temperatures will continue to climb back into record territory. An upper level trough will begin to sweep across the eastern half of the country by mid week. This trough will shift the ridge further south which will turn our winds out of the west. High pressure will hold north of the area allowing moisture to increase across the area over the next few days. Though high pressure dominates the pattern, moisture has begun to return to the area leading to RH values well above critical thresholds. The high pressure will shift south later this week turning our winds out of the west.
The mid-level ridge continues to dominate the region with a stable and dry middle and upper levels of the the atmosphere.
127 PM EDT Mon Jun 3 2024 A back door cold front will cross the area from east to west today, before dissipating near the Quebec border tonight.
Much warmer temperatures and dry conditions are expected this week as high pressure builds over the Southwest. The forecast remains on track with a high pressure ridge building over the Southwest beginning on Tuesday.
- A cold front will move through Tuesday bringing a much more focused thunderstorm chances for Tuesday afternoon and evening.
High pressure over the western Atlantic continues to influence the local area, with the ridge axis extended towards northern Florida. The highest chance for showers and storms this afternoon will be across Okeechobee County, with PoPs 40% there. Favorable boating conditions are expected with high pressure in control over the western Atlantic.
129 PM EDT Mon Jun 3 2024 High pressure will move farther off the Carolina coast this week.
A cold front will move across the Southeast late in the week increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms, and potentially severe weather. Upper ridging moving in from the west may also act to suppress more widespread convective development.
353 PM EDT Mon Jun 3 2024 As high pressure moves away from the area, southerly flow will bring warmer and more humid conditions.
As expected the cloud line across the Lower Keys came to life this afternoon with bursts of convection. In the low levels a ridge centered across the western North Atlantic will extend a ridge axis westward across the Florida Peninsula and Gulf of Mexico. In the mid and upper levels, weak troughing across the eastern third of the U. As the upper level trough gets displaced and moves eastward, the lower level ridge will initially weaken and become more nebulous on its western edge, including over the Florida Keys.
Deeper convection will drift back toward the Highway 301 corridor through 10 pm as WNW 700-500 mb steering flow influences the storms, but convection will rapidly weaken with the loss of diurnal instability.
- Slightly cooler temperatures tomorrow, but still hot! - Mostly dry conditions with well above seasonal temperatures expected through the end of the work week. A weak trough aloft will pass over the region this afternoon through the evening, the response will be isolated weak showers and thunderstorms over the mountains.
Weak waves within the ridge aloft will kick off more showers and possibly an isolated thunderstorm Tuesday afternoon. Tomorrow night, high pressure remains in control and temperatures will remain warm overnight with lows only in the low 60s to upper 50s.
The focus for Tuesday transitions from storms to heat, as an upper ridge develops over the region, and a dryline develops east of a Sonora to San Angelo to Abilene to Haskell line in the afternoon.
Much warmer temperatures and dry conditions are expected this week as high pressure builds over the Southwest. Mid to upper-level clouds will increase in coverage for this afternoon and into Tuesday as a high pressure ridge begins to build over the Southwest. Conditions remain dry for much of this week with the main story being much warmer temperatures, 10-15 degrees above average for the latter half of the week.
137 PM EDT Mon Jun 3 2024 Aside from an isolated afternoon shower or thunderstorm across the higher terrain, dry conditions are expected through Tuesday.
135 PM PDT Mon Jun 3 2024 Temperatures in the valleys, mountains and deserts will trend upward this week as high pressure builds over the Great Basin.
Tues is expected to be another warm/humid day with highs mostly in the lower 90s (upper 80s at the beaches). And per models, we could see another round of showers/storms tomorrow night with yet another MCS moving down from the Southern Plains, which could be the last one for the near future (as the ridge aloft begins building in from the west).
Tomorrow, 500mb heights are expected to rise as an upper-level ridge builds across the Great Basin.
1232 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024 - Scattered thunderstorms are possible (25-40%) this afternoon and again tomorrow morning ahead of an approaching cold front.