Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A warm start this morning with temperatures in the upper 70s to mid 80s currently noted across the area will give way to highs this afternoon climbing into the triple digits as the upper ridge axis becomes centered over the Southern Plains.
1134 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 An upper level ridge of high pressure over the southern Rockies will expand eastward in the lower Mississippi River Valley over the next few days.
1244 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 (Tonight through Monday night) Weather conditions become much more quiet today and tomorrow compared to previous days as mid-level high pressure from the east builds over much of the area. To the west/northwest, an inverted trough remains bringing some low end precipitation chances to our far west this afternoon.
South Texas will remain sandwiched between two mid/upper level high pressure systems. There is an inverted trough draped southwest to northeast across Mexico and stretches toward another long wave trough located from TX toward the Great Lakes.
This will bring similar conditions tonight to what we saw last night but it does look like it will be a few degrees warmer and maybe slightly more humid. (This afternoon through Tuesday Night) Late morning temperatures are into the lower 90s. The lower level trajectory appears to remain land locked just enough to prevent an upward spike in dewpoints.
(Today and tonight) Dangerously hot weather will occur today as the magnitude of the low-level thermal ridge increases across the Southern Plains. For tonight, remnant showers and thunderstorms may approach northern Oklahoma from Kansas in association with a weak boundary/cold front.
(Today and tonight) Upper level ridging centered near northern New Mexico will remain in control of our weather again today, with mostly clear skies and hot temperatures.
With high pressure being the dominant factor, showers and storms will continue to be scattered and develop off the sea breeze circulations and other mesoscale boundaries. Temperatures will continue to reach the low to mid 90s with heat index values likely around 105-110F, although some spots could exceed 110 degree heat indices.
High pressure aloft was centered over Colorado and the Four Corners region during the afternoon, set to remain in place through Monday. Starting Tuesday the high will begin a gradual shift westward and amplify under the influence of a strengthening trough over the eastern United States and a stationary trough just off the west coast.
H5 ridge across the Four Corners will be slightly suppressed today keeping temps likely in the mid 80s to lower 90s across much of the area today. As we move into Tuesday, the ridge looks to begin to amplify once again which should allow temps to creep upwards a few more degrees from their Monday highs.
Current thinking is that storms will develop initially well north of the area, across eastern MT and parts of ND in response to the digging trough across southern Canada. Slightly cooler air will be working into the region as well, with most areas back down into the 80s for highs, as dewpoints creep down closer to 60 degrees by 00Z Tuesday.
(The rest of tonight) Light southerly wind overnight as low pressure is centered over southwestern and central Kansas.
332 AM EDT Mon Jul 15 2024 (Today through Tuesday) Fairly stagnant upr lvl pattern across the SE region with a well- defined ridge across the Four Corners. A weaker upr ridge sits across the Gulf of Mexico/south FL/Bahamas areas with a weakness between these two features over the ArkLaMiss and Tennessee areas. A few areas (east-central and southeast counties) could be even warmer but an expected increase storm coverage should minimize widespread 105+F heat indices, thus no Heat-related headlines needed at this time.
1214 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 (This evening through Monday) Upper-level ridging continues to dominate our weather pattern in the short term with dry and warm conditions. The ridge will flatten and weaken a bit tomorrow but with 850 mb temperatures and overall thickness values increasing temperatures will actually end up a few degrees warmer than today ranging from the upper 90s to lower 100s.
And based on the position of the upper trough, rain chances will be higher the farther south and east you go in the area, with the lowest rain chances in southeast AR and the ArkLaMiss Delta where moisture will be somewhat less. /DL/ The period begins with a broad high pressure stretching across the Southern Plains region, while an upper trough begins to extend southwards into the Ozarks/TN River Valley.
(Today and tonight) The heat escalates today as an upper high over northern New Mexico flattens and expands over much of our area. Tonight remains quiet and uneventful under the eastern periphery of the upper high.
1234 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 (This evening through Tuesday) Incrsg heat and humidity will be the main story through the short term PD, w/ aftn readings on Sun topping out in the low to mid 90s at most locations. Alongside incrsg temps, humidity wl result in max aftn heat index values of 105 to near 110 degrees at most locations on Mon aftn, and have gone forward w/ another Heat Advisory for most areas, excluding the higher terrain of the Boston Mtns.
(Today through Tuesday) A slow warming trend will take place through early this week as the subtropical ridge centered over the western United States slowly builds southward into the southern Rockies. Near the surface, we will see continued south to southeasterly winds along with a fairly stout low-level thermal ridge. Look for highs to generally stay in the lower to upper 90s today, with a nudge upward into the mid 90s to near 100 degrees on Tuesday.
/Issued 1159 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024/ /Overnight through Tuesday/ Mid level ridging will continue to be centered over the Four Corners region through Tuesday, but its eastern periphery will extend well into the Southern Plains and North Texas resulting in a continued slight upward trend in temperatures. While this often leads to warmer temperatures, afternoon mixing is deep and with modest flow (~30 kt at 850 mb), we should see at least semi-breezy afternoon and evening conditions. Dewpoints will likely fall into the low/mid 60s resulting in heat indices near or just slightly above ambient air temperatures. That being said, temperatures will climb into the upper 90s to near 102 today and likely a degree or two warmer on Tuesday.
The resulting S/SW wind flow is keeping predawn readings at warm lvls, ranging fm the mid 70s to the lower 80s. Little change in the weather pattern is not expected thru most of Tue, as mid lvl ridging expands eastward towards the Mid-South. Some early signs of upcoming changes enter the fcst Tue night as the aforementioned upper ridge starts to retrograde back to the west of AR.
1152 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 (This evening through Monday night) Upper ridges were noted near the Four Corners area and from west of Bermuda into the northern Gulf of Mexico. In between, troughing extended from the lower Ohio River Valley into Texas. With forecast soundings showing convective temperatures remaining in the lower 90s, expect that tomorrow's convective timing and areal coverage will look a lot like today's (and yesterday's), from mid afternoon into early evening.
Much of Eastern CONUS is positioned in a weakness in the height field between an upper ridge over CO/NM and another elongated ridge extending from the northern Gulf of Mexico into the west Atlantic. Aside from lower temperatures in the higher elevations of far northeast Georgia, highs today will rise into the upper 90s to near 100.
129 AM EDT Mon Jul 15 2024 High pressure will remain near Bermuda for the first part of this week, resulting in a prolonged heat wave over the region.
1242 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 (Tonight through Monday night) Mid-level ridge will continue to be the main focus of the short term forecast period. As for temperatures, the low temperatures for tonight and tomorrow night are expected to be in the 70s, with parts of the Lower Rio Grande Valley approaching the 80s. On the other hand, the high temperatures for tomorrow are expected to be in the 90s.
One possible scenario would be for additional storms to fire along the edge of the outflow from the morning convection or on the cold front, which could organize along the gradient in instability (from northern Iowa into northern Illinois) into a forward propagating MCS during the afternoon/evening, especially across parts of Illinois/Iowa and perhaps far southern Wisconsin. Damaging winds would be the main hazard if/where a linear convective system organizes, otherwise, some hail would be possible if sufficiently strong updrafts form along the boundary where deep layer shear profiles are oriented at an angle to the cold front.
- Cooler and drier weather remains on track for the rest of the week. Once the rain exits, temperatures should climb into the low to mid 80s. However, another round of showers and thunderstorms is possible later this afternoon, mainly in southeastern MN and west-central WI, as a cold front sags south.
An upper trough starts to dig southward into the southern Plains by the end of the week, but slows any progress further southeastward as stacked high pressure ridging remains in place across the FL peninsula in a blocking-like pattern. There is certainly discrepancies amongst guidance as to how this trough behaves, especially into this weekend. A stagnant pattern will be set up across the region this week with high pressure to the east and troughing to the northwest.
The Gulf Coast remains in an unstable pattern, with troughing aloft and high pressure on either side. The trough is present from 250 mb down to 500 mb, while the high pressure is present at the surface and up to 500 mb. Temperatures will be in the typical range for the summer, with highs in the mid to low 90s with dew points in the low to mid 70s.
1202 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 (This evening through Monday) The upper high pressure will be centered over the southern Rockies through Monday, with West Texas remaining on the eastern periphery of the high through Monday. Lows tonight will be in the low to mid 70s.
1216 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 (The rest of tonight) Light southerly wind overnight as low pressure is centered over southwestern and central Kansas.
156 AM EDT Mon Jul 15 2024 Hot high pressure will linger atop the region through Tuesday.
/26/ (This evening through Monday Night) Quiet afternoon ongoing across the Four State Region as temperatures continue to climb into the low to mid 90's. At the same time, S-SW winds locally will support the northward advancement of a gulf airmass, that may mix out some through the early afternoon, but should still allow for Td's in the low to mid 70's.
An upper level ridge will remain in control over Western Washington through the first half of the week for continued dry conditions and above normal temperatures.
500 mb short wave associated more with the cold front is in SW Manitoba with a cluster of storms with it. High pressure will then move overhead Wed-Thu. 500 mb heights will rise into western Canada mid week with warmer air spreading north and a sharp ridge west and trough east will be located over Canada and the northern tier of the US with our forecast area in between and on the backside of the 500 mb trough to our east Fri-Sun period. Warmer air will move in but warmest airmass remains to our west.
(Monday night through Tuesday night) Weak upper level and mid level ridging will gradually weaken through this period, as an upper level trough develop deepens over Canada and sags into the upper Midwest.
Currently - A surface through mid level Atlantic ridge reaches westward across the Florida Peninsula and into the Gulf of Mexico. Meanwhile, weak ridging extends north northeastward across the eastern Gulf of Mexico and Florida. Forecast - The Atlantic ridge will remain across the Florida Peninsula through the week. Heading into mid week the lower levels will dry out some as the moisture associated with the old wave continues to move west and out of our area. The lower tropospheric ridge will remain across the Florida Peninsula. An Atlantic ridge will remain across the Florida Peninsula through the forecast duration.
(Today through Tuesday) Broad 500 mb high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico will generally be the dominant weather feature across the BRO CWFA during the period.
1129 PM MDT Sun Jul 14 2024 -Cooler this week with chances for showers and storms Central Canada upper low will retrograde back west and support lower heights into the Northern Plains this week as the western CONUS ridge flattens. This feature will provide the focus for convection the next few days as several impulses traverse the Rockies ridge and advect over the region. Breezy northerly winds are expected Monday behind a cold front, but RH's will be a bit higher.
(Today and tonight) Ridging overhead will begin to break down today as a bit of troughing moves over the Southeast CONUS. While still quite warm, high temps without as much ridging are forecast in the low to mid 90s.
High pressure remains centered across the Four Corners region early this morning but will start to shift slightly to the west over the next several days. With the high across the Four Corners we should continue to see moisture increasing across the region. As we head through the rest of the week, we see the high start to drift to the west, though it may wobble a bit back and forth through that time. The location of the high will be the main driver for just how much convection we see and where it initiates each day. SCT TSRA/SHRA over the higher terrain, 19Z-03Z.
600 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 (Today and tonight) Dangerously hot weather will occur today as the magnitude of the low-level thermal ridge increases across the Southern Plains. For tonight, remnant showers and thunderstorms may approach northern Oklahoma from Kansas in association with a weak boundary/cold front.
Mid level ridging continues to expand over the area today and Tuesday. Cooler conditions will exist where there is a better chance of rain.
617 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 (Today through Tuesday) Broad 500 mb high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico will generally be the dominant weather feature across the BRO CWFA during the period.
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Canadian high pressure will push south behind the frontal passage this morning. For the remainder of the week, the western ridge will push eastward over the northern Rockies with warming temperatures.
- Cooler weather returns through midweek with a modest warmup expected for the end of the week and into the weekend. The low stratus deck of clouds moving across the south central is starting to break up as it moves. Western and central North Dakota continues to sit under the influence of broad upper level troughing. Today will be cooler in the wake of the low and frontal system. Highs will range from the lower 70s in the vicinity of the Turtle Mountains, to the mid 80s southwest.
(Monday through Tuesday) Warmer this morning with mostly clear skies. It's 80 downtown Shreveport for the warmest and 73 at Peason Ridge and Alexandria for the coolest, both of which are calm by the way.
620 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 - Hot and humid today but record temperatures are unlikely - Another hot day Tuesday in the south but cooling off in the north with an approaching front - Unseasonably cool for the end of the week and into the weekend Ridging continues to build into the region today along with some weak moisture advection. By late this afternoon and into the evening, a slow moving cold front will be encroaching on the region. Primarily pushing the hotter temperatures a little further south to compensate the higher potential for cloud cover hanging around longer than previously expected in the central areas of the CWA.
Quiet weather with temperatures at or slightly below normal through midweek, with only slightly warmer temperatures for the end of the work week into the weekend. (Today and tonight) Slow moving upper level disturbance offshore of NorCal continues to gradually lift north while eventually getting absorbed by persistent troughing working on the northwest periphery of broad ridge over western CONUS.
639 AM EDT Mon Jul 15 2024 (Today and tonight) Ridging overhead will begin to break down today as a bit of troughing moves over the Southeast CONUS. While still quite warm, high temps without as much ridging are forecast in the low to mid 90s.
622 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 (Today and tonight) The heat escalates today as an upper high over northern New Mexico flattens and expands over much of our area. Tonight remains quiet and uneventful under the eastern periphery of the upper high.
WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO A thin plume of elevated instability lifting north along the western periphery of the upper level high is producing virga/light showers across inland portions of the forecast area this morning. Another round of scattered showers and thunderstorms is expected across the mountains, high deserts, and locally into the lower deserts this afternoon.
High pressure remains centered across the Four Corners region early this morning but will start to shift slightly to the west over the next several days. With the high across the Four Corners we should continue to see moisture increasing across the region. As we head through the rest of the week, we see the high start to drift to the west, though it may wobble a bit back and forth through that time. The location of the high will be the main driver for just how much convection we see and where it initiates each day.
A cold front associated with the 500 mb short wave near Winnipeg is moving thru the northern RRV with a weakening line of t-storms. 500 mb short wave associated more with the cold front is in SW Manitoba with a cluster of storms with it. High pressure will then move overhead Wed-Thu. 500 mb heights will rise into western Canada mid week with warmer air spreading north and a sharp ridge west and trough east will be located over Canada and the northern tier of the US with our forecast area in between and on the backside of the 500 mb trough to our east Fri-Sun period. Warmer air will move in but warmest airmass remains to our west.
- Isolated mountain showers/thunderstorms today along the Sierra Crest south of I-80 Cooler temperatures are evident this morning across the area. This is due to onshore flow from weak troughing along the coast and especially in Delta breeze influenced locations. At 3 am it was generally 3 to 8 degrees cooler than the same time yesterday. Weak troughing along the West Coast will promote onshore flow, helping to keep temperatures in-check in/around the Delta and through the Sacramento Metro where highs will be in the upper-80s to middle-90s.
650 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 (Today through Tuesday) A slow warming trend will take place through early this week as the subtropical ridge centered over the western United States slowly builds southward into the southern Rockies. Near the surface, we will see continued south to southeasterly winds along with a fairly stout low-level thermal ridge. Look for highs to generally stay in the lower to upper 90s today, with a nudge upward into the mid 90s to near 100 degrees on Tuesday.
The mid/upper level pattern continues to feature high pressure near the Four Corners region which is keeping the favorable easterly mid level flow in place. For those areas that got hit hard yesterday, the lower levels are worked over so it will take time to recover and that will tend to locally reduce convective activity. The mid/upper level high which will initially be near the Four Corners will meander a bit to the south and west later in the week. Biggest uncertainties are the day to day variability in the moisture levels and potential for mid level warming when the high gets a bit closer.
From synopsis, Atlantic ridging will remain across the Florida Peninsula through the duration of the forecast.
The high risk of grass fires in the valley continues, with fire behavior enhanced even with low wind speeds. The dominate ridge over the entire southern CONUS is centered over the four corners region.
High temperatures today will be cooler than during previous days. Main features are a large upper level ridge spinning over the four corners and a weak upper trough west of California. Moisture under the western side of the ridge will continue over northern and central Nevada today, allowing for the development of isolated to scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms mainly over portions of central and eastern Nevada. Highs for today will be cooler than recent highs with readings in the mid 80s to mid 90s. For Tuesday and Tuesday night, little movement can be seen in the upper level ridge, maintaining its position across the four- corners area. The upper low west of California is expected to shift slightly northeast.
606 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 (Today and tonight) Upper level ridging centered near northern New Mexico will remain in control of our weather again today, with mostly clear skies and hot temperatures.
The area of low pressure responsible for the active interior thunderstorm pattern will extend over N CA today. This system looks to be much drier, and may only briefly increase southerly winds Tuesday afternoon for the interior ridges to enhance fire weather concerns over Trinity County.
* A warming trend with increased storm chances possible this weekend as a ridge re-amplifies over the western US.
(Today through Tuesday) Fairly stagnant upr lvl pattern across the SE region with a well- defined ridge across the Four Corners. A weaker upr ridge sits across the Gulf of Mexico/south FL/Bahamas areas with a weakness between these two features over the ArkLaMiss and Tennessee areas. A few areas (east-central and southeast counties) could be even warmer but an expected increase storm coverage should minimize widespread 105+F heat indices, thus no Heat-related headlines needed at this time.
642 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 (Monday through Tuesday) Warmer this morning with mostly clear skies. It's 80 downtown Shreveport for the warmest and 73 at Peason Ridge and Alexandria for the coolest, both of which are calm by the way.
1037 AM EDT Mon Jul 15 2024 High pressure will remain near Bermuda for the first part of this week, resulting in a prolonged heat wave over the region.
426 AM MDT Mon Jul 15 2024 -Cooler this week with chances for storms most days -A few stronger storms possible this afternoon and evening Water vapor shows upper high over the Southern Rockies with short wave trof over southern ALTA/Manitoba, which is flattening the ridge over the Northern Plains. At the surface, low is over north-central SD with cold front along a line that extends through KPHP and KIEN early this morning. Highs today will be in the 80s to lower 90s with northerly winds behind the cold front. Additional storms possible on Tuesday afternoon/evening with stronger short wave trof moving through and steep lapse rates in place with northwest flow aloft. Highs will be similar or a degree or two cooler than today, with continued northerly flow.
Dunn Previous Discussion: /Overnight through Tuesday/ Mid level ridging will continue to be centered over the Four Corners region through Tuesday, but its eastern periphery will extend well into the Southern Plains and North Texas resulting in a continued slight upward trend in temperatures. While this often leads to warmer temperatures, afternoon mixing is deep and with modest flow (~30 kt at 850 mb), we should see at least semi-breezy afternoon and evening conditions. Dewpoints will likely fall into the low/mid 60s resulting in heat indices near or just slightly above ambient air temperatures. That being said, temperatures will climb into the upper 90s to near 102 today and likely a degree or two warmer on Tuesday.