Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A cold front will move through the area tonight shifting winds to the north. Dry conditions are expected after midnight tonight behind the cold front and continue through the majority of the day tomorrow before the second disturbance arrives. Highs today and tomorrow look to reach into the low to mid 70s with lows tonight and tomorrow night in the 40s with low 50s across south central Kansas.
Elsewhere, a stalled frontal boundary brings cloud cover into NW AL and portions of southern middle TN, limiting fog potential and keeping temperatures on the warmer side this morning (upper 60s compared to upper 50s to lower 60s in NE AL where clear skies reside).
121 AM EDT Wed Apr 30 2025 High pressure off the coast will bring unusually warm temperatures through the rest of the week.
1200 AM EDT Wed Apr 30 2025 High pressure will prevail through the end of the week.
Time cross sections do start to finally trend toward drier low levels by Tue 22Z, which correlates well with latest surface analysis indicating high pressure centered over the South Dakota/Minnesota state line. So, once those skies finally do clear out later this evening, expect strong radiational cooling overnight and lows dipping well below normal into the low to mid 20s (upper 20s along lakeshores). 5th percentile of PWAT climo per NAEFS), RHs could fall to the low 30%s across the interior, though with recent wetting rainfall and relatively light winds (<20 kt gusts) no fire weather concerns are expected. Models are in decent agreement on this low track, however vary on whether isentropically forced precip will spread into the far south and east parts of the UP.
208 AM EDT Wed Apr 30 2025 Fresh, light northwest winds today with air temperatures much cooler than yesterday, though a good deal of sunshine will be found across the region.
Strong high pressure remains off the coast of the southeastern seaboard causing east-southeasterly flow.
High pressure behind today's cold front will provide for dry conditions overnight, but the next disturbance will approach just after sunrise Wednesday morning. 37 19z/2pm surface analysis shows a cold front sagging southward toward the I-70 corridor. Damaging wind gusts of around 60mph will be the primary risk: however, steep mid-level lapse rates and freezing levels of around 11,000ft will be supportive of large hail within the more vigorous updrafts. before the frontal boundary begins to lift back northward as a warm front on Wednesday. As low pressure lifts northeastward across the region, showers and a few thunderstorms will linger into Thursday.
326 AM EDT Wed Apr 30 2025 Dry and cool behind our cold front Wednesday.
High pressure will build into the region through Thursday, bringing a return to drier and warmer weather.
Broad upper trough over the Southwest, coupled with broad upper ridging over the eastern CONUS, is setting up a steady southerly fetch of moisture streaming into the Plains and Middle Mississippi Valley. As the day progresses, the main upper trough will begin to move into the southern Plains.
As short wave moves into Minnesota late tonight the 500 mb trough deepens as showers become more widespread.
Latest upper level analysis has flat ridge across the Northern Plains, with mostly sunny skies. At the surface, high pressure resides over the Midwest, with weak trof over Montana and Wyoming. An upper level trof and associated cold front will cross the forecast area tonight into Wednesday. Northwesterly winds will be breezy once the cold front passes through. High temperatures on Wednesday will range from around 50 in the west, to the lower 70s in far south central SD. Axis of upper level trof remains over the Northern Plains for Thursday.
1142 PM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025 (This evening through Wednesday night) Upper level ridge axis is oriented southwest to northeast across the southeastern US.
A temperature gradient will remain with us both afternoons as breezy easterly onshore flow keeps temperatures cool along the east coast (low to mid 80s) with warmer temperatures across the western half of South Florida.
Thursday there is a 40 to 70 percent chance of light rain across the state with the central half with the higher likelihood. A short wave trough and cold front are forecast to push into the region tonight. Winds are forecast to be breezy out of the north as the cold front moves through the region and pressure rises on the backside of the upper low. Breezy conditions are forecast again to impact the state as the cold front moves through the region. A strong upper-level ridge is forecast to move into the region this weekend resulting in warmer and drier weather.
Issued by National Weather Service Gray ME 1224 AM EDT Wed Apr 30 2025 A cold front will approach tonight, then cross the region early Wednesday morning. High pressure will build in from the west Wednesday and crest over the area Thursday.
402 AM EDT Wed Apr 30 2025 Fresh, light northwest winds today with air temperatures much cooler than yesterday, though a good deal of sunshine will be found across the region.
Discussion: Strong upper level ridging remains positioned across the southeastern CONUS with a longwave trough over the western half. A distinct upper low can be noted atop the Desert Southwest. Because upper level support will be lacking the greatest coverage is expected across the higher terrain.
Cold front is failing to force convection thus far with highly sheared, shallow, cumulus noted. Gusty wind will subside in the wake of the cold front. High pressure moves in tonight allowing temperatures to plummet well into the 30s along the MI state line; mid-40s toward central Indiana. Unsurprisingly, sharply cooler on Wednesday but right near normal with high temperatures eventually warming into low- to-mid 60s.
The pattern becomes a bit more active tomorrow as a robust midlevel trough swings into the Southern Plains, providing a mechanism for convective development in an environment that appears at least somewhat favorable for a few stronger storms. Similar temperatures should prevail tomorrow with highs in the mid 80s and overnight lows in the lower 70s.
Thereafter, the return of tropical moisture will occur as the high pressure moves into the western North Atlantic and the wind direction becomes east to southeasterly. Winds for the next few days will continue to oscillate with moderate to fresh breezes teetering the line of Small Craft Advisory conditions, but as the high continues eastward these winds will slacken further giving brief relief from elevated winds. From synopsis, moderate to fresh breezes will continue as high pressure dominates the region. The high will remain fairly stagnant in place through the middle of the week, so breezes will oscillate between moderate to fresh on a weak diurnal trend with stronger breezes in the evening hours.
Issued by National Weather Service La Crosse WI 306 AM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025 - Increasing clouds today and warmer as high pressure departs.
Upper ridging extends from the southwestern gulf northeastward through the southeast U. On the surface, broad high pressure centered between the Carolinas and Bermuda ridges southwest across northern Florida and into the northeast gulf.
(Today and tonight) 04Z upper air analysis reveals a deamplifying trough pivoting over the southern Rocky MOuntains, with the primary vorticity lobe rotating across the AZ/NM state line. Farther west, moist ascent was focused in the vicinity of the vorticity lobe, which will eject over W TX this afternoon as the trough becomes neutrally-tilted. The 30/00Z RAOBs from WFO AMA and MAF observed a strong EML, which will still be intact as southwesterly flow and related geopotential height falls from the emerging trough maintain mid-level cooling. Development of scattered-to-numerous thunderstorms are expected across the Caprock this afternoon, as large-scale forcing for ascent increases substantially with the neutrally-tilting trough ejecting over W TX amidst an uncapped airmass. High temperatures in the lower-middle 70s are forecast area-wide today, followed by a cool and humid night.
A few showers and thunderstorms have formed on the San Juans, with reports of some snow mixed in with rain at the higher elevations. Not surprising, considering the steepness of lapse rates in the gut of the trough that's kept things cooler the past few days. This will give the low a chance to exit eastward and a weak tilted ridge to transition through overnight. This will likely mean a few snow showers at the higher elevations west of the Divide, with only light accumulations Wednesday night. These threats subside after sunset as weak upper-level ridging begins to build in overhead.
1230 AM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025 Deep layer ridging will persist over the forecast area tonight through Wednesday night, maintaining the dry and rather warm conditions across the area. Subsidence from the deep ridging will continue to result in above seasonal temperatures. DS/12 The pattern looks to get a little more active heading into late week and the weekend as the upper ridge finally breaks down and the upper trough finally pushes into the eastern US. At the surface, expect a cold front to slowly drift southward through the weekend with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms occurring each day along the boundary.
457 AM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025 - Scattered showers/storms chances (15-70%) throughout most of the day, with the highest coverage of showers and accumulations southeast of the Tri-Cities. - A cold front moves through the area overnight, bringing another chance (15-40%) for rain to the area, most likely northwest of the Tri-Cities.
651 AM EDT Wed Apr 30 2025 Fresh, light northwest winds today with air temperatures much cooler than yesterday, though a good deal of sunshine will be found across the region.
This stratus should dissipate rather quickly later this morning as high pressure builds into the region. The high will bring a strong warming and drying trend inland today into Thursday. For the coast, it will be seasonably cool today, and a few degrees warmer on Thursday. Except, with a slight northeast aspect to the low level flow, the high in Brookings today is forecast to be in the upper 60s, several degrees above normal.
- Warmer for the weekend with low chances for showers and thunderstorms in the mountains.
While yesterday evening's convection off of South Florida didn't quite make it to the Keys, a few isolated showers bubbled up in the vicinity of the island chain as they moved west bringing some measurable precipitation to portions of the Lower and Middle Keys. High pressure nosed over northern mainland Florida is promoting moderate to fresh easterly breezes along the Reef. From synopsis, moderate to fresh breezes will continue as high pressure dominates the region. The high will remain fairly stagnant in place through the middle of the week, so breezes will oscillate between moderate to fresh on a weak diurnal trend with stronger breezes in the evening hours.
Weak high pressure moving across Arizona will bring warmer temperatures today.
Still looks like the higher chances for showers and storms will be north today, and the current forecast generally looks to be on track. Discussion: Strong upper level ridging remains positioned across the southeastern CONUS with a longwave trough over the western half. A distinct upper low can be noted atop the Desert Southwest. Because upper level support will be lacking the greatest coverage is expected across the higher terrain.
High pressure will build into the region today and persist through Thursday for warmer and drier conditions across western Washington.
This front eventually lifts back northward as a warm front, which will result in periods of showers and thunderstorms through tonight. The pattern looks to remain unsettled through at least the beginning of the weekend as an upper level trough persists over the Ohio Valley. The stalled front will actually begin to lift as a warm front late this evening and continue through the overnight hours.
957 AM EDT Wed Apr 30 2025 High pressure will build into the eastern Great Lakes today, with morning clouds giving way to increasing sunshine this afternoon.
Issued by National Weather Service La Crosse WI 601 AM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025 - Increasing clouds today and warmer as high pressure departs.
828 AM EDT Wed Apr 30 2025 Dry and cool behind our cold front Wednesday.
The upper ridge over our region will continue to breakdown and shift eastward through tonight in response to a medium amplified upper trough exiting the southern Rockies and out over the southern Plains. The upper trough exiting the southern Plains late tonight will pass over the lower Mississippi River region and southeast states on Thursday while deamplifying.
The ridge axis has moved well east of the region this morning, with southeast flow aloft now prevailing over the region.
We start the period with an upper ridge to our east and an upper trough over the western Plains.
Winds for the inland terminals will be lighter with high pressure building. This stratus should dissipate rather quickly later this morning as high pressure builds into the region. The high will bring a strong warming and drying trend inland today into Thursday. For the coast, it will be seasonably cool today, and a few degrees warmer on Thursday. Except, with a slight northeast aspect to the low level flow, the high in Brookings today is forecast to be in the upper 60s, several degrees above normal.
At the surface, cold front extends from northern SD through far western Nebraska. We should also see at least some isolated activity continue early this evening for areas west of I-135 where cooler mid level temps are resulting in some decent instability with minimal capping. This will push a very weak cold front through the area on Thu, but the bulk of the precip chances should be tied to the better upper dynamics over northern and northeast KS. High pressure will settle over the region Fri night into Sat and will keep things dry through the weekend.
The upper ridge shifts eastward through tonight in response to a medium amplified upper trough exiting the southern Rockies and out over the southern Plains. The upper trough exiting the southern Plains late tonight will pass over the lower Mississippi River region and southeast states on Thursday while deamplifying. High temperatures look to mostly be in the lower to mid 80s Thursday.
Updated at 232 PM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025 - After a warm and dry Thursday, a cold front brings the return of cooler temperatures and rain chances to end the week. Stay tuned for updates! (This afternoon through Thursday night) WV imagery this afternoon shows an upper trough entering our CWA, for another round of convection this afternoon. 12Z KMAF raob came in w/deep-layer shear of almost 70 kts, and CAMs keep this going this afternoon w/40-60 kts rounding the base of the trough.
Issued by National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 106 PM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025 - Increasing clouds today and warmer as high pressure departs.
First along a cold front from Aberdeen to Pierre and points east this afternoon (40-70% chance for showers). A cold front moves through the region today bringing showers and even a rumble of thunder or two. On Thursday, an upper trough digs in over the northern Plains bringing cooler temperatures.
Temperatures will trend warmer and rise to several degrees above seasonal averages until late this week. An upper-level disturbance will provide at least a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms to mainly the higher terrain, including the West Side Hills, Kern County mountains, and the Sierra Nevada today and Thursday.
The highest probabilities will be southeast of the tri-cities through around 6 PM, with the focus then shifting northwest of the tri-cities later tonight. - A cold front moves through the area overnight, bringing seasonably cool temperatures along with breezy northwest winds to the local area Thursday.
126 PM EDT Wed Apr 30 2025 Dry and cool behind our cold front Wednesday.
230 PM EDT Wed Apr 30 2025 High pressure will extend from near Bermuda to the South Atlantic states this week.
300 PM EDT Wed Apr 30 2025 High pressure off the coast will bring unusually warm temperatures through the rest of the week. The high will slip further offshore towards the weekend as a cold front approaches, with shower and thunderstorm chances increasing from the west. The mid level ridge that has been overhead will progress eastward through the near term period, becoming better aligned with the surface reflection.
Currently, sunny and breezy conditions in place thanks to an upper level ridge of high pressure overhead and a surface level high pressure system ridging over FL.
(This evening through Thursday) An upper trough axis will track west to east across the region this afternoon/evening. There is not significant shear in the low levels and given the fast moving nature of the storms, neither flooding nor tornadoes is likely, however drier midlevels/favorable freezing levels aloft and the potential for storms to bow out (particularly once east of I-27) will contribute to large hail and high winds being the main threats. Rising height will in part cause warmer temperatures Thursday with highs ranging from the mid 70s to mid 80s.
Issued by National Weather Service Gray ME 342 PM EDT Wed Apr 30 2025 High pressure will build in from the west tonight and crest over the area Thursday.
- Scattered showers/storms chances (15-70%) throughout most of the day, with the highest coverage of showers and accumulations southeast of the Tri-Cities. - A cold front moves through the area overnight, bringing another chance (15-40%) for rain to the area, most likely northwest of the Tri-Cities.
Temperatures were ranging from the mid 60s to mid 70s with the warmer conditions in areas across southern Missouri which have broken out of the cloud cover.
225 PM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025 To begin the period, an upper level trough continues to push east and northeast from the Central Plains bringing with it the chance for strong to severe thunderstorms.
Latest satellite imagery is showing significant clearing in the wake of this morning's MCS with stable wave clouds along the warm front and cloud streets to the south. The RAP is showing this warm front moving north into the southeast Illinois counties with MLCAPES increasing into the 1000-2000 J/kg range with deep layer shear of 40-50 knots supporting a few organized multicells and supercells late this afternoon into this evening. Large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two will be possible with the strongest storms, particularly along the warm front where there will be the best low level curvature.
Initially this would be concerning with respect to landspout potential given the low shear environment and vorticity rich surface boundary, however forecast cloud bases are very very high (around 2. Otherwise, these thunderstorms may still deposit small, sub- severe hail given the updraft depth almost entirely below freezing. As short wave moves into Minnesota late tonight the 500 mb trough deepens as showers become more widespread.
A series of low pressure systems will impact the region through the next several days.
That ridge, which has kept the local area POPs limited at temps above normal, is already becoming suppressed southward as the troughs approach from the NW. That slight decrease in subsidence in the northwestward side of the ridge and the CWA explains current isolated showers northwest of Baton Rouge.
First along a cold front from Aberdeen to Pierre and points east this afternoon (40-70% chance for showers). Flow ahead of this feature is southwesterly allowing for temperatures to overachieve, and also bringing in some "higher" dewpoints in the low to mid 40s.
344 PM EDT Wed Apr 30 2025 High pressure will build in from the west tonight and crest over the area Thursday.
We continue to watch the pop up showers and weak thunderstorms in the far southern Red River Valley towards northern SD as a cold front continues to pass through.
624 PM EDT Wed Apr 30 2025 High pressure will build in from the west tonight and crest over the area Thursday.
A weak and fast moving cold front will continue to move through the central portions of the forecast area this afternoon before stalling over southern Utah tonight.
From synopsis, moderate to fresh breezes will continue as high pressure dominates the region. The high will remain fairly stagnant in place through the middle of the week, so breezes will oscillate between moderate to fresh on a weak diurnal trend with stronger breezes in the evening hours.
602 PM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025 Updated at 601 PM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025 - After a warm and dry Thursday, a cold front brings the return of cooler temperatures and rain chances to end the week. Stay tuned for updates! (This afternoon through Thursday night) WV imagery this afternoon shows an upper trough entering our CWA, for another round of convection this afternoon. 12Z KMAF raob came in w/deep-layer shear of almost 70 kts, and CAMs keep this going this afternoon w/40-60 kts rounding the base of the trough.
UPDATE We continue to watch the pop up showers and weak thunderstorms in the far southern Red River Valley towards northern SD as a cold front continues to pass through.
High pressure will build into the region through Thursday for warmer and drier conditions across western Washington.
947 PM EDT Wed Apr 30 2025 High pressure off the coast will bring unusually warm temperatures through the rest of the week. The high will slip further offshore towards the weekend as a cold front approaches, with shower and thunderstorm chances increasing from the west. Quiet conditions overnight with possibly some shallow fog late with above normal lows, mainly in the lower to mid 60s. The mid level ridge that has been overhead will progress eastward through the near term period, becoming better aligned with the surface reflection.
High pressure system remains in control, keeping winds mostly out of the SE, though sea breeze development is expected in the afternoon pushing flow more onshore.
612 PM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025 To begin the period, an upper level trough continues to push east and northeast from the Central Plains bringing with it the chance for strong to severe thunderstorms.
642 PM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025 The upper ridge shifts eastward through tonight in response to a medium amplified upper trough exiting the southern Rockies and out over the southern Plains. The upper trough exiting the southern Plains late tonight will pass over the lower Mississippi River region and southeast states on Thursday while deamplifying. High temperatures look to mostly be in the lower to mid 80s Thursday.
655 PM EDT Wed Apr 30 2025 High pressure off the coast will bring unusually warm temperatures through the rest of the week. The high will slip further offshore towards the weekend as a cold front approaches, with shower and thunderstorm chances increasing from the west. The mid level ridge that has been overhead will progress eastward through the near term period, becoming better aligned with the surface reflection.
914 PM EDT Wed Apr 30 2025 High pressure will build in from the west tonight and crest over the area Thursday.
949 PM EDT Wed Apr 30 2025 High pressure will extend from near Bermuda to the South Atlantic states this week.
First along a cold front from Aberdeen to Pierre and points east this afternoon (40-70% chance for showers). Otherwise, will freshen up sky/wind details through 12Z, while generally letting the lows in the 40s ride in the current forecast. Flow ahead of this feature is southwesterly allowing for temperatures to overachieve, and also bringing in some "higher" dewpoints in the low to mid 40s.
(This evening through Thursday Night) A line of thunderstorms, supported by the approach of a robust midlevel trough and surface frontal boundary, will push into the area shortly and produce scattered strong storms over the course of the late afternoon and evening. Look for temperatures overnight and tomorrow night to to continue to sit in the low 70s (mid 70s at the coast).