Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Temperatures will begin warming tomorrow as south winds advect warmer air into the region. ANS Our break from Spring (Spring Break) will last another 24 hours or so but sub freezing temperatures are likely tonight across all of the Midsouth.
Temperatures will be noticeably cooler than last night, with lows in the mid to upper 40s north and west of the I-4 corridor, and in the 50s southward. Winds are forecast to increase out of the north behind a cold front that is moving southward across the local Atlantic waters, with winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 20 to 30 knots late tonight. However, winds become light, as high pressure builds into the area. (00Z TAFS) VCSH diminishing across east central Florida after 03Z as the cold front sags southward.
214 PM PDT Mon Mar 18 2024 High pressure will slowly break down early this week brining warm and dry conditions through tomorrow.
Southern Oregon and northern California will remain under the influence of high pressure through Tuesday.
Lows tonight will bottom out in the mid to upper 30s, with a few locations out east and along the Red River Valley reaching the freezing mark.
Unseasonably warm weather through Tuesday with strong high pressure aloft.
The snow chances then end this afternoon as the wave and moisture moves by, leaving some short wave ridging in place.
07z/2am surface analysis shows a 1026mb high centered over the Deep South while a cold front drops southward through the Upper Midwest. While a strong nocturnal temperature inversion will initially be in place, once the depth of the mixed layer increases, some of this higher momentum air will be transported to the surface from late morning through mid-afternoon. The winds will gradually decrease by late afternoon, then will drop to 10mph or less by evening after the cold front passes. High temperatures will top out in the upper 50s and lower 60s, then will drop into the lower to middle 30s tonight as a cooler airmass returns. Precautions will once again need to be taken in order to protect any sensitive outdoor vegetation from the freezing temperatures.
1253 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024 Evening RAP/water vapor analysis indicate deep longwave trough centered along & east of the MS River basin while cutoff upper low remains stalled over the Desert Southwest/Baja California region. Temperatures are dropping quickly across the region, currently in the low-to mid 40s. Expect lows to fall well below freezing into the upper 20s, especially in cold drainage areas east of I-55 & especially into the Hwy 25 corridor. Along the MS River corridor, lows could fall near freezing. Elsewhere, nighttime temperatures will fall into the lower 30s. This will lead to widespread frost development across our entire CWA along with several hours of temperatures below freezing. The combination of frost and freezing temperatures will likely kill unprotected sensitive vegetation. Areas south of I-20 will see daytime highs in the low 60s.
1124 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024 (This afternoon through Tuesday night) Light showers have developed and are stretching across the the Lower Trans Pecos.
However, instead of being confined to the Straits, showers and thunderstorms erupted along the Lower and Middle Keys breaking through the dry air in the middle layers sampled from yesterday evening's sounding. Temperatures across the island chain have fallen into the lower to mid 70s in response to the rainfall. Wind observations along the Reef are generally contaminated by storm outflow, but show a trend of veering breezes to the northwest as a cold front approaches from the Gulf. The cold front on our doorstep will sweep through our area this morning. Cooler and drier weather will follow into the end of the week when a period of unsettled weather is expected.
No rain is expected today as we await the passage of our next trough. Wednesday sees the long waited Southwest upper-low, now open trough, moving into the southern Great Plains. The best chance of any precipitation appears to be closest to the trough across the northeastern Permian Basin and around the higher elevations of the Stockton Plateau. Partly cloudy skies keep overnight temperatures a touch warmer with upper 40s and lower 50s anticipated for most.
(Today through Wednesday) Mid to high clouds continue to stream in overhead out of the southwest as the cut-off low remains parked over Southern California. Cloud cover will be mostly responsible for the cooler temperatures.
A warming trend will begin today as a ridge of high pressure gradually moves southeast towards Florida by tonight.
(Today and tonight) The Rex Block will begin to break down today with the ridge weakening over northern California and a forward, eastern movement of the upper low into Arizona. Tonight, temperatures were warmed a few degrees above the NBM and closer to MOS guidance given the continued southwesterly surface flow, along with insulation from a potential stream of high clouds with the approaching upper low.
The strong upper level ridge of high pressure over the region will begin to weaken and move southward on Tuesday. By Wednesday what's left of the ridge will stretch from the western Great Basin back up into the Pacific Northwest leaving the forecast area under a southwest flow aloft. Meanwhile, a series of weather systems in the eastern Pacific Ocean will begin to consolidate into an upper level trough. This system will also increase the west to east pressure gradient across the region Wednesday resulting in some breezy winds and temperatures cooler by 5 to 10 degrees but still above normal.
349 AM EDT Tue Mar 19 2024 A cold front remains draped across the Florida peninsula early this morning and will continue to drift southward, with cooler and drier air moving over the region. High pressure will then quickly build in over the southeast, allowing skies to clear for the day, though temperatures this afternoon will only top out in the mid 60s north to mid 70s south. Lows tonight will be rather cool, with 40s and 50s expected area-wide, then we can expect temps tomorrow afternoon a few degrees warmer than today.
Rain and high elevation snow returns this weekend as a result of the next trough. There is a potential of spotty showers in the Sierra Nevada and Kern County today due to the current rex block setup with a spinning trough over portions of Southern California, Southwest Arizona, and Mexico and a very strong ridge over the Pacific Northwest. However, these very warm temperatures are not going to last long as model ensembles show the rex block weakening on Wednesday as the trough moves east towards Texas and the ridge weakens and slides down in the Great Basin.
(Today) Cold start again this morning with temperatures across much of eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas below freezing.
356 AM EDT Tue Mar 19 2024 Dry and breezy conditions are expected today ahead of a dry cold front.
Temps are running only up a few degrees warmer from this time yesterday evening with slightly drier humidity and have brought readings closer to MOS bulletins.
Some areas will likely see below freezing temperatures, but areas of ~10mph winds as well as the advection of some mid-level clouds through northern Texas will help abate widespread freezing temperatures. Winds will diurnally diminish Tuesday evening, however continued warm air and moisture advection into the region will keep things away from freezing temperatures, with lows dropping into the 40s across the region.
(Today) Clearing skies/light winds have allowed temps to fall below the freezing mark in several locations this early Tue morning. Temps closer to daybreak will continue to fall into the mid/upper 20s for most spots, as a large dome of high pressure settles into the western/central Gulf Coast.
1239 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024 (This evening through Tuesday) Quiet weather to continue through the short term portion of the forecast as the forecast area will remain under short wave mid/upper ridging between a low parked over Arizona and a longwave trough over the eastern CONUS.
Strong high pressure locked in over the Northern Rockies will bring another spectacular spring day. The lower valleys across central Idaho will be in the mid 70s to around the 80 degree mark. The ridge will begin to weaken late this evening as a Canadian cold front banks up against the Continental Divide near Glacier National Park. At the same time, moisture moving through the northern periphery of the ridge, will allow for the development of mountain snow showers over Marias Pass late Tuesday evening and early Wednesday. A tightening easterly gradient ahead of the advancing cold front will also introduce breezy easterly winds along Highway 2 from Marias Pass to West Glacier Wednesday, ushering in much colder air.
pdf High pressure will build from the northwest through the night, with a trend toward clear skies. Temperatures will fall off sharply Tonight, with lows ranging from the mid 30s over inland SE GA, to the lower 40s over coastal NE FL. However, wind chills values will drop below freezing across most inland areas. (Tuesday through Wednesday night) High pressure conditions will be in place through the middle of the week with dry weather, mostly clear skies, and predominantly mild winds persisting through Wednesday. Coolest temperatures for the week will be on Tuesday with high temperatures in the lower to mid 60s on Tuesday and rising into the lower 70s Wednesday.
110 AM EDT Tue Mar 19 2024 (06Z TAFS) A cold front continues to push across the region, with some showers possible for southwest FL sites for the next few hours, though limited impacts are expected.
This allows the low level flow to shift back to the south and begin to increase today, resulting in south winds that will be gusty at times. Upper level low out to the west will shift east some today, but not enough to bring significant lift to the area. Did go a little warmer than some of the model blends for tonight just due to the cloudcover in place which should limit temperature drop.
123 AM MDT Tue Mar 19 2024 - High pressure hold firm across the area through Wednesday, with mild temperatures and clear skies.
931 PM PDT Mon Mar 18 2024 High pressure will slowly break down early this week bringing warm and dry conditions through Tuesday. Today through Wednesday: Ridging will slowly weaken the next couple days but we remain warm and dry today and tomorrow.
1228 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024 High pressure is sitting off to our west and will build in for the overnight. High pressure will slowly drop south tomorrow as a low pressure system passes over the Great Lakes. (Rest of today through Tuesday) It's dry and cool today with a bit of a breeze thanks to a passing upper trough axis. The passing trough will send a reinforcing shot of cold air overnight tonight, which will send temperatures into the low to mid 20s by Tuesday morning. After this cold dip, we'll stay above freezing for the foreseeable future, which is at least a week in our case.
(Today through Wednesday Night) High pressure will settle toward the Gulf Coast today. Clockwise flow around the high will bring a breezy west to southwest wind to Arkansas, especially over northern and central sections of the state. As the period progresses, a cold front will approach from the north, and a storm system will head this way from the southern Plains.
(Today through Wednesday) We've got another great day on tap today, with temperatures about 10 degrees warmer than yesterday and lotsa sun. We're 4 to 5 days removed from our last rain and with RH values in the low 20s to potentially some upper teens, and breezy 20 ft winds, elevated fire dangers are going to exist. RHs should be a little better tomorrow, but winds will also be weaker, so we'll cross that bridge tomorrow night.
(Today through Wednesday) The axis of the upper level trough that brought the most recent cold front through the region is now east of the Appalachian Mountains and headed to the Atlantic Ocean. This, along with strong radiational cooling from light winds and clear skies, would lead to cooler temps. However, upper level ridge will already be moving in from the west which should counter cooling enough to result in lows slightly warmer than they are this morning. Slight amplification of the of that ridge on Wednesday will bring temps back to climatological normals.
Another round of rain and snow showers is expected Tuesday, with warmer and dry weather expected from Wednesday onward. Low pressure remains to our southwest, with a circulation center rotating northward this evening through Gila County. The everlasting cut-off low remains centered over the lower Colorado River today, slowly meandering around the southwest. With the cut-off low still wobbling around Arizona, another round of rain and snow showers are expected on Tuesday. However, since the low will drift a bit further eastward, moisture looks to be a bit less by Tuesday. However, with a grater surface dewpoint depression, any heavier shower may cool the surface temperature closer to freezing and allow for some brief snow accumulations near 7000 feet.
However, temperatures are expected to be on the chilly side with readings in the upper 20s roughly north of I-85 and in the low 30s elsewhere. TOnight temperatures are expected to dip back down in the 30s though at this time winds look to keep temperatures largely above freezing.
142 AM MDT Tue Mar 19 2024 The upper ridge over the west has pushed south, with the center of the high now sitting over northern California. At the same time, a sharp trough was deepening over the Northern Plains into the Great Lakes.
1214 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024 (Tonight) Another round of below freezing temperatures is in offing for tonight across much of eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas with temperatures bottoming out in the mid 20s to lower 30s.
An upper level low over Arizona will continue to impact southeast Arizona. Precipitation chances shift today and Wednesday into the higher terrain of Graham and Greenlee County with dry conditions elsewhere.
555 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024 (Today through Wednesday Night) High pressure will settle toward the Gulf Coast today. Clockwise flow around the high will bring a breezy west to southwest wind to Arkansas, especially over northern and central sections of the state. As the period progresses, a cold front will approach from the north, and a storm system will head this way from the southern Plains.
The highest concern area will be west of Highway 75 in northeast OK as this is where the highest fire spread rates and lowest relative humidity values will occur (minimum RH values near 20 percent by mid-late afternoon). Mejia (Today) Cold start again this morning with temperatures across much of eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas below freezing.
Just when you thought the cold mornings were over, a cold front comes in and brings them back.
524 AM MDT Tue Mar 19 2024 - Warmer weather, with occasional scattered light mountain snow showers this upcoming week. Flow aloft will be weak through tonight as the stubborn upper level low remains over the Desert Southwest while northwest flow aloft prevails over much of the eastern half of the country. Clouds form this afternoon over the higher terrain to the southwest of Denver. Warming trend continues today with highs about 5 degrees warmer than yesterday. Weak upper troughing is progged on Wednesday into early evening as the old closed low finally moves eastward across New Mexico.
Southern Oregon and northern California will remain under the influence of high pressure today. Today will be warm as well, but high temperatures today will trend roughly 5 degrees cooler than yesterday. Things will begin to change on Wednesday with the arrival of the first of several fronts that will usher in a cooler and wetter pattern. Here, upslope winds from the south and local instability could combine with the passing trough overhead to produce a few showers, although chances are low at about 10 to 15 percent. A few lightning strikes are not out of the question, although chances are much lower, down into the lower single digit percentages. Otherwise, the passage of the system will be marked only by cooler temperatures, with highs Wednesday dropping another 10 degrees or so below those of today.
635 AM EDT Tue Mar 19 2024 Dry and breezy conditions are expected today ahead of a dry cold front.
424 AM PDT Tue Mar 19 2024 Warm and dry weather under High pressure will slowly transition to cooler and wetter by late week. Today and Wednesday: The satellite imagery early this morning has quite a stark contrast of where the ridge of high pressure is and where the approaching trough is located in the Pacific. Bid a farewell (at least for now) to our warm and dry weather as we begin to see a shift back to cooler and wetter.
Today and Tonight: Continued cooler than normal and dry through the period. This will result in light return flow that will help keep temperatures above freezing areawide.
618 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024 A warming trend will begin today as a ridge of high pressure gradually moves southeast towards Florida by tonight.
528 AM MDT Tue Mar 19 2024 - High pressure hold firm across the area through Wednesday, with mild temperatures and clear skies.
Unsettled weather and cooler temperatures return late in the week. Unseasonably mild weather continues inland for one more day today as the high pressure dominates the synoptic pattern over interior Northern California.
611 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024 (Today) Cold start again this morning with temperatures across much of eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas below freezing.
642 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024 (Today and tonight) The Rex Block will begin to break down today with the ridge weakening over northern California and a forward, eastern movement of the upper low into Arizona. Tonight, temperatures were warmed a few degrees above the NBM and closer to MOS guidance given the continued southwesterly surface flow, along with insulation from a potential stream of high clouds with the approaching upper low.
Surface observations show that winds have diminished significantly after the passage of a cold front earlier this morning. However, instead of being confined to the Straits, showers and thunderstorms erupted along the Lower and Middle Keys breaking through the dry air in the middle layers sampled from yesterday evening's sounding. Temperatures across the island chain have fallen into the lower to mid 70s in response to the rainfall. Wind observations along the Reef are generally contaminated by storm outflow, but show a trend of veering breezes to the northwest as a cold front approaches from the Gulf. The cold front on our doorstep will sweep through our area this morning. Cooler and drier weather will follow into the end of the week when a period of unsettled weather is expected.
419 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024 Today and Tonight: Continued cooler than normal and dry through the period. This will result in light return flow that will help keep temperatures above freezing areawide.
A weakening upper level ridge will provide one more dry and mild day for Western Washington on Tuesday.
Early morning satellite imagery shows a well established Rex Block over the WRN CONUS with a H5 low over SRN California and a broad H5 ridge directly north extending from the Pacific to the NRN Rockies.
302 AM PDT Tue Mar 19 2024 Warm and dry weather under High pressure will slowly transition to cooler and wetter by late week. Today and Wednesday: The satellite imagery early this morning has quite a stark contrast of where the ridge of high pressure is and where the approaching trough is located in the Pacific. Bid a farewell (at least for now) to our warm and dry weather as we begin to see a shift back to cooler and wetter.
605 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024 (Today) Clearing skies/light winds have allowed temps to fall below the freezing mark in several locations this early Tue morning. Temps closer to daybreak will continue to fall into the mid/upper 20s for most spots, as a large dome of high pressure settles into the western/central Gulf Coast.
(Rest of Today) At 12Z, high pressure was located over southeast TX with a ridge axis east across the southeast U. High temperatures in the lower to middle 50s still looks good at this point.
The warm ridge over the region will flatten out and shift west as the Hudson Bay low becomes more dominate over Canada.
631 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024 (Today through Wednesday) We've got another great day on tap today, with temperatures about 10 degrees warmer than yesterday and lotsa sun. We're 4 to 5 days removed from our last rain and with RH values in the low 20s to potentially some upper teens, and breezy 20 ft winds, elevated fire dangers are going to exist. RHs should be a little better tomorrow, but winds will also be weaker, so we'll cross that bridge tomorrow night.
340 AM MDT Tue Mar 19 2024 - Warmer weather, with occasional scattered light mountain snow showers this upcoming week. Flow aloft will be weak through tonight as the stubborn upper level low remains over the Desert Southwest while northwest flow aloft prevails over much of the eastern half of the country. Clouds form this afternoon over the higher terrain to the southwest of Denver. Warming trend continues today with highs about 5 degrees warmer than yesterday. Weak upper troughing is progged on Wednesday into early evening as the old closed low finally moves eastward across New Mexico.
Temperatures are rising in the region and freezing temperatures are no longer expected to be a threat. However, temperatures are expected to be on the chilly side with readings in the upper 20s roughly north of I-85 and in the low 30s elsewhere. TOnight temperatures are expected to dip back down in the 30s though at this time winds look to keep temperatures largely above freezing.
(Rest of today through Wednesday) A mid level trough will gradually lift off to the northeast through the rest of today and give way to a zonal flow heading into tonight and Wednesday. At the surface, an area of high pressure centered over the Gulf Coast states will push southeastward towards the Florida Peninsula bringing dry conditions through the middle of the week. With some cold air advection taking place overnight, low temperatures will drop to around 50 west of Lake Okeechobee to the lower 60s across the east coast metro areas. Highs on Wednesday will range from the upper 70s across the east coast metro areas to the lower to mid 80s across interior portions of Southwest Florida.
In the upper levels we'll remain beneath WNW upper flow, sandwiched between a northern stream trough over the Great Lakes and a pronounced sub-tropical jet over the far southeast CONUS through the period.
202 PM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024 Tonight and Tomorrow: High pressure will remain over the region yielding clear and cool conditions through Wednesday. We could still see a little bit of frost across the northeastern portions of the CWA tonight, but widespread frost and freezing temperatures are not expected. We will warm up a bit for Wednesday reaching the lower 70s across the forecast area.
A busy early morning has calmed down as the cold front that brought heavy rain and occasional thunder before sunrise continues to exit the forecast area. Surface obs currently show temperatures in the lower to mid 70s with dew points in the lower to mid 60s. Strong northerly breezes earlier this morning have begun to turn north to northeasterly and slackened as a cold front pushes away from the forecast area.
151 PM EDT Tue Mar 19 2024 Dry weather and warmer temperatures are expected during the next few days.
924 AM PDT Tue Mar 19 2024 Warm and dry weather under High pressure will slowly transition to cooler and wetter by late week. Today and Wednesday: The satellite imagery early this morning has quite a stark contrast of where the ridge of high pressure is and where the approaching trough is located in the Pacific. Bid a farewell (at least for now) to our warm and dry weather as we begin to see a shift back to cooler and wetter.