Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
(This evening through Tuesday) Persistent mid to upper level ridging from the Big Bend to the Colorado Rockies will continue to weaken overnight and all but disappear Tuesday as a modest upper low over the Great Basin and a broad, deep upper low anchored over southern Ontario and Quebec essentially bridge together. The dissipating ridge combined with a significant shift to the south/southeast of the eastern North America trough will help a strong cold front drive southward through the southern Plains during the day Tuesday. This scenario would favor the warmer end of the range of possibilities.
1240 PM CDT Mon Oct 14 2024 (Tonight through Tuesday night) Water vapor imagery this morning reveals upper level ridging stretching across the Southern Plains as an upper level trough digs across the Midwest. The upper trough will send a cold front south across the state early in the week. However, the low level moisture profile remains questionable for efficient fog production.
343 PM EDT Mon Oct 14 2024 Cooler and unsettled weather is then expected through midweek under a trough of low pressure. KEY MESSAGES: - Precipitation chances will increase from the north with a sagging trough over the Great Lakes. 10 or greater will be over the northern counties and over the higher terrain in WV and not much potential with only 40% to 50% chance.
A weak high pressure centered over the Gulf of Mexico will gradually become pinched and the pressure gradient will relax as a result.
Very little snowfall accumulations are expected with a trace covering patches in the grass being the highest. This will lead to the return of dry conditions and slightly increasing temperatures into the lower 50s across the area.
1216 PM CDT Mon Oct 14 2024 (Rest of Today) A cold front that moved across the area around midnight continued rocketing southward, extending roughly from east of the DC area, to SE of Augusta GA, to near Montgomery and across central Lousiana. Colder air accompanying this high, and lower heights being produced by a synoptic scale system deepening over SE Canada, will make for a cooler start to an abbreviated work week. High temperatures should trend 15-20 degrees cooler today than they were yesterday.
1212 PM CDT Mon Oct 14 2024 (Today through Tuesday) Tranquil weather is expected through Tuesday as high pressure aloft and at the surface remains in place. Highs today and Tuesday are expected to be slightly above normal with temperatures generally in the low to mid 90s under mostly sunny skies.
(This evening through Tuesday Night) The much advertised cold front has cleared all but our extreme souther tier of Toledo Bend Country this afternoon with sharply drier air in its wake. Despite the recent fropa, another warm day is expected on Tuesday before the more significant cold air advection comes Tuesday night with the next front diving south along a deep upper-level trough carving out across the eastern CONUS.
(Rest of Today) A cold front that moved across the area around midnight continued rocketing southward, extending roughly from east of the DC area, to SE of Augusta GA, to near Montgomery and across central Lousiana. Colder air accompanying this high, and lower heights being produced by a synoptic scale system deepening over SE Canada, will make for a cooler start to an abbreviated work week. High temperatures should trend 15-20 degrees cooler today than they were yesterday.
723 PM EDT Mon Oct 14 2024 A dry cold front moving offshore this evening will precede a stronger cold front harboring a few stray showers on Tuesday night. The cold front is mostly through the area, looking like its just west of US 17. The edge of the drier, cooler air is juts pushing into our inland counties where they've likely hit their high temperatures for the day. Cloud cover will increase ahead of another cold front during the late afternoon/evening but otherwise not much to write home about.
The cold front that moved through last night has caused temperatures to stay in the upper 60s to lower 70s this afternoon.
628 PM CDT Mon Oct 14 2024 (This evening through Tuesday night) Large upper trough over the Great Lakes with a lobe over Lake Superior. Cooler and drier air will be plunging into the area overnight tomorrow night, and there is at least a small chance that a brief Wind Advisory may be necessary immediately south of Lake Pontchartrain during the overnight hours Tuesday night.
911 PM EDT Mon Oct 14 2024 A dry cold front moving offshore this evening will precede a stronger cold front harboring a few stray showers on Tuesday night. A cold front has now pushed offshore. Cloud cover will increase ahead of another cold front during the late afternoon/evening but otherwise not much to write home about.
Lows overnight are forecast to reach the low to mid 60s areawide with light westerly winds present.
High pressure over the area will keep winds of around 10 knots or less and seas of 2 feet or less through Tuesday.
(Now through Tuesday) A large upper trof over the eastern half of the CONUS amplifies substantially and becomes oriented over the eastern states while a large upper ridge builds over the central states. A cold front currently located near the coast pushes well offshore tonight followed by cool high pressure building into the area through Tuesday night. Lows tonight range from around 50 well inland to around 60 at the coast, then Tuesday night will be cooler with lower 40s well inland ranging to the lower 50s near the coast.
753 PM CDT Mon Oct 14 2024 (This evening through Tuesday Night) The much advertised cold front has cleared all but our extreme souther tier of Toledo Bend Country this afternoon with sharply drier air in its wake. Despite the recent fropa, another warm day is expected on Tuesday before the more significant cold air advection comes Tuesday night with the next front diving south along a deep upper-level trough carving out across the eastern CONUS.
800 PM EDT Mon Oct 14 2024 A reinforcing cold front will push through Tuesday night with possible isolated showers over the northern Midlands. Key Messages: - Clear and cool overnight Cooler and drier air has moved into the area with with dewpoints late this afternoon over the central and western portions of the forecast area falling into the mid 20s.
651 PM CDT Mon Oct 14 2024 - Below freezing temperatures expected tonight into Tuesday morning in the central and east. Freezing temperatures are possible in the west as well, though uncertainty remains much higher due to potential cloud cover and breezy conditions.
703 PM CDT Mon Oct 14 2024 - Widespread sub-freezing temperatures tonight which will end the growing season across the area. Sprawling Canadian high pressure continues to spread southwards today, with the high expected to center over the area by tomorrow morning. Patchy stratocumulus advecting off of Lake Superior is expected to continue into this evening, and any residual areas of cloud cover tonight will keep temperatures several degrees warmer than those areas that clear out. Elsewhere, sub-freezing temperatures in the upper 20s to low 30s are expected, but a few spots could stay above freezing where patchy cloud cover persists overnight. Daytime temperatures will remain cool tomorrow with highs in the low 50s.
609 PM CDT Mon Oct 14 2024 - Nighttime lows are expected to be near or below freezing tonight across northeast Nebraska, and tomorrow night across all of eastern Nebraska and western Iowa.
555 PM EDT Mon Oct 14 2024 Cooler and unsettled weather is expected through midweek under upper troughing. Frost and freezing conditions at night will be possible for many this week. KEY MESSAGES: - Patchy frost is expected north of Pittsburgh and in the higher terrain tonight. ------------------------------------------------------------------- Broad upper troughing continues across the Great Lakes/Northeast this evening with northwest flow. 850mb temperatures drop to around -3C tonight with surface temperatures into the mid/lower 30s across portions of western PA and northern WV (especially the ridges). Cloud cover will help keep most of the area above-freezing, but areas of frost are expected north of Pittsburgh and in the Laurels. 10 or greater will be over the northern counties and over the higher terrain in WV and not much potential with only 40% to 50% chance.
633 PM CDT Mon Oct 14 2024 (This evening through Tuesday) Persistent mid to upper level ridging from the Big Bend to the Colorado Rockies will continue to weaken overnight and all but disappear Tuesday as a modest upper low over the Great Basin and a broad, deep upper low anchored over southern Ontario and Quebec essentially bridge together. The dissipating ridge combined with a significant shift to the south/southeast of the eastern North America trough will help a strong cold front drive southward through the southern Plains during the day Tuesday. This scenario would favor the warmer end of the range of possibilities.
705 PM EDT Mon Oct 14 2024 (Through Tuesday) A dry cold front continues to move through the region this afternoon and evening, ushering in a cooler and much drier air mass. Highs on Tuesday ranging from the mid-70s to mid-80s, about 5-10 degrees cooler compared to Monday, with very comfortable humidity levels.
The air mass will be pretty dry and that should limit fog potential tonight but some patchy fog will be possible mainly near and over warmer water ways. Another shot of cold air moves in tomorrow with a digging trough. Tonight, much cooler temperatures will move in with mid 30s to low 40s forecasted. (Tuesday Night through next Monday) The last time we saw a high of 65 or cooler at BNA was April 21.
926 PM EDT Mon Oct 14 2024 Quite an enjoyable evening out there with temps sliding through the 70s and dew points in the high 50s to 60s. Lows overnight are forecast to reach the low to mid 60s areawide with light westerly winds present.
(This afternoon through Tuesday) Broad upper troughing continues to dig across the Eastern US and a sfc cold front continues southward currently situated in the vicinity of Columbus and Macon. Cooler temperatures can be expected overnight with forecast lows ranging from the mid to upper 30s in NE GA to upper 40s to near 50 in the south. This will bring a reinforcing cooler and drier airmass into the region that will stick around through much of the weekend. Cooler daytime temperatures can be expected on Tuesday with highs ranging from the upper 50s in NE GA to low 70s south of Macon.
941 PM EDT Mon Oct 14 2024 Cold and dry high pressure controls our weather for much of the week bringing the risk of frost and freeze to the mountains and foothills as well as portions of the Piedmont in mid week. As this high pressure moves off the East Coast at the end of the week, a southerly flow of air develops giving our region a warming trend over the weekend.
Boaters can expect less clearance under bridges during high tides. From synopsis, weak high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico will maintain light to gentle mainly northeast breezes across the Keys coastal waters through Tuesday night.
431 PM MDT Mon Oct 14 2024 -Backdoor cool front will support cooler conds Tues -Warmer temperatures return during the first half of the week, along with elevated fire danger -Cooler and more unsettled late week Flow pattern will become increasingly active this week as a deep upper trough advects into western NOAM. Cooler weather can be expected Tues with WAA ramping up in the afternoon in the west, supporting pressure falls and increasing SE winds esp over northwest SD. Upper trough will move east into the Rockies and support a cold front thorough the region Thurs with continued breezy winds. Cold front aloft will move into the west later Thur and provide the focus for lift and associated rain and possible snow.
Clear skies will allow lows to the fall into the 50s most places as a cold front continues moving south. Dewpoints currently in the Big Bend are in the low 70s while in the wiregrass dewpoints are in the upper 40s on northwesterly surface winds. (Through Tuesday) A dry cold front continues to move through the region this afternoon and evening, ushering in a cooler and much drier air mass. Highs on Tuesday ranging from the mid-70s to mid-80s, about 5-10 degrees cooler compared to Monday, with very comfortable humidity levels. On Tuesday, a cold front sweeps across the waters, ushering in brisk northwest winds that increase winds and seas.
734 PM CDT Mon Oct 14 2024 Broad surface ridging lies from the upper Midwest clear down into AR and E OK. Clear skies, light winds and dry air in place in the wake of yesterday's cold front yield favorable conditions for radiational cooling. The going forecast heavily leaned toward the lower quartile (25th %ile) of the guidance spread and CONSMOS, both of which are pretty reliable in these type of scenarios. (Tuesday through Monday) Cold front remains timed to sweep quickly southward across the local region during the day Tuesday.
(Rest of tonight) High pressure remains the dominating factor locally, as the cold front that moved through last night has moved south of the Gulf Coast. Cooler, dry air will continue to filter into the region, as dewpoints have dropped into the 30s.
The next system then brings cooler temperatures and generally light precipitation chances by midweek, with breezy to gusty northerly winds and elevated to critical fire weather concerns following through the end of the week. Upper level ridging continues over the area bringing warm, near normal to slightly above normal temperatures through Tuesday. As ridging continues over the area, we can generally expect mostly clear skies through Tuesday. Confidence is high in a trough digging southward from the Gulf of Alaska toward NorCal mid-week this week.
A weakening cold front continues to drift south across the area this evening, and is just south of I-10 at this time as evidenced by a 12 degree dewpoint difference between the Lake Charles Regional Airport (KLCH) and Chennault International Airport (KCWF) which is approximately 8 miles northeast of KLCH.
This will bring a chance of showers to the Ohio Valley Monday into Tuesday along with much cooler temperatures. Temperatures gradually warm by the end of week as high pressure provides dry conditions. Chilly temperatures will drop to lows ranging from the upper 30s in the north to the lower 40s in the south. Mid level energy will continue to rotate through the mid/upper level trough during the day on Tuesday. This will help carve out a deeper trough over the Ohio Valley region for Tuesday into Tuesday night, reinforcing the cold airmass across the area. As the trough axis shifts south Tuesday night, we should see a decreasing cloud trend across our area. It will be cold Tuesday night with lows falling into the low to mid 30s.
642 PM EDT Mon Oct 14 2024 Cooler and unsettled weather is expected through midweek under upper troughing. Frost and freezing conditions at night will be possible for many this week. KEY MESSAGES: - Patchy frost is expected north of Pittsburgh and in the higher terrain tonight. ------------------------------------------------------------------- Broad upper troughing continues across the Great Lakes/Northeast this evening with northwest flow. 850mb temperatures drop to around -3C tonight with surface temperatures into the mid/lower 30s across portions of western PA and northern WV (especially the ridges). Cloud cover will help keep most of the area above-freezing, but areas of frost are expected north of Pittsburgh and in the Laurels. 10 or greater will be over the northern counties and over the higher terrain in WV and not much potential with only 40% to 50% chance.
547 PM CDT Mon Oct 14 2024 Cooler and drier air has moved in behind the cold front, that pushed through the state yesterday. Across the state, cooler temperatures are being observed with some gusty winds and mostly clear skies.
625 PM CDT Mon Oct 14 2024 (Tonight through Tuesday night) Pleasant weather is expected to persist through Tuesday night with high pressure aloft and at the surface, as they continue to be the driving forces for the weather of Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley. As for the temperatures, the highs for tomorrow are expected to be in the low to mid 90s. Meanwhile, the low temperatures for the tonight and tomorrow night are expected to be mostly in the 60s. However, areas along the coast could be in the lower 70s.
1235 AM CDT Tue Oct 15 2024 (Tonight through Tuesday night) Pleasant weather is expected to persist through Tuesday night with high pressure aloft and at the surface, as they continue to be the driving forces for the weather of Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley. As for the temperatures, the highs for tomorrow are expected to be in the low to mid 90s. Meanwhile, the low temperatures for the tonight and tomorrow night are expected to be mostly in the 60s. However, areas along the coast could be in the lower 70s.
1133 PM CDT Mon Oct 14 2024 - Nighttime lows are expected to be near or below freezing tonight across northeast Nebraska, and tomorrow night across all of eastern Nebraska and western Iowa.
1237 AM CDT Tue Oct 15 2024 - Widespread freezing temperatures are expected Tuesday night/Wednesday morning across the area.
(Today and tonight) The cold front that is due this afternoon is currently moving across the Missouri River. Current forecasted highs reflect more of a MOS blend which has a slightly faster FROPA and is slightly cooler than the NBM. The trend has been cooler over the past few days with MOS guidance being even cooler (upper 30s in Lubbock). As of 2 AM, temperatures behind the front are, on the low side, near freezing while most temps are in the upper 30s to mid 40s. Forecasted lows have been nudged down from the NBM but remain warmer than MOS. One case that would allow for cooler temps would be overnight winds becoming light, but currently winds are expected to remain in the 10-15 mph range through sunrise.
At the surface, this system will pull a strong cold front into the Florida Peninsula early Wednesday, with potentially a few showers developing along the frontal boundary.
- Temperatures moderate though late week as high pressure brings dry conditions. A steady increase in moisture flux off lake Huron in cold northerly flow will occur again during the early and mid morning hours Tuesday as a mid level trough pivots across the region. Deep polar vorticity anomaly and closed upper level low circulation is currently positioned over eastern North America, including the Great Lakes.
134 AM EDT Tue Oct 15 2024 A deepening trough of low pressure will continue to bring periods of valley rain and higher elevation snowfall to the region through Wednesday, along with unseasonably cool temperatures. High pressure, sunnier skies and much warmer temperatures return for the end of the week and through the weekend. Shower activity across the region has continued to taper off, with just a few lingering light showers across the high terrain. A deep upper trough will remain over the region though supplying an abundance of low clouds and cold temperatures in the 30s overnight. Snow levels may briefly drop below 1500 feet this evening, but for tomorrow will likely be around 2000 feet limiting additional snowfall to the higher elevations where through Tuesday night a total of 6-8" is likely.
Rain, breezy winds, and cooler weather will accompany the arrival of a cold front Wednesday. Chilly and showery weather is likely to continue through the end of the week, with some snow likely in the higher mountains. 10" or more) through Wednesday night, but the Columbia Basin seems to be rain shadowed fairly strong, particularly from the high resolution model suite. If the Columbia Basin does not get wetting rains, breezy west wind gusts up to 30 mph in association with a cold front passage Wednesday may bring some blowing dust concerns.
The breezy northerly winds will gust 25 to 30 mph by late this morning, lingering into the afternoon as high pressure approaches from the northwest. At least western portions of the lakeshore counties will have a crack at freezing temps tonight, so opted to go with a Freeze Warning for the entire forecast area tonight. High temps will recover a few degrees on Wednesday as the high moves through, but will remain about 5 degrees below normal. Most places will see near to below freezing temps again tomorrow night.
1143 PM CDT Mon Oct 14 2024 (This evening through Tuesday night) Large upper trough over the Great Lakes with a lobe over Lake Superior. Cooler and drier air will be plunging into the area overnight tomorrow night, and there is at least a small chance that a brief Wind Advisory may be necessary immediately south of Lake Pontchartrain during the overnight hours Tuesday night.
(Today) Light winds and cool temperatures presently across the area, but a second surge of cooler Canadian air is approaching through the Central Plains. Later arrival of cooler airmass across southern areas will result in a decent spread in high temps this afternoon, from mid 60s to mid 80s with very low humidity once again.
150 AM EDT Tue Oct 15 2024 Unsettled weather and below normal temperatures will persist through Wednesday, as we remain under the influence of an upper level low and northwesterly flow. Dry conditions and warmer temperatures will return for the later portions of the week. High pressure should bring generally dry conditions through the period, along with a gradual warming trend.
- A cold front will bring breezy conditions Tuesday night into Wednesday morning and cooler temperatures for the rest of the week. (This evening through Tuesday) Early this afternoon, a cold front was stalled just north of the Interstate-10 corridor. Temperatures across the area ranged from the 80s behind the front to the low 90s ahead of the front. This front should lift back northward as a warm front late this evening and overnight and allow southerly flow to return for the area through Tuesday afternoon. Although winds are not expected to be particularly strong, they should advect a warm airmass back into the region and push high temperatures up into the low 90s tomorrow.
1028 PM CDT Mon Oct 14 2024 - Below freezing temperatures expected tonight into Tuesday morning in the central and east. Freezing temperatures are possible in the west as well, though uncertainty remains much higher due to potential cloud cover and breezy conditions. Temperatures are expected to drop below freezing for all of eastern through central ND tonight. Freezing temperatures are possible in the west as well, though breezy winds and sky cover may prevent freezing there. To start the week, dry conditions will persist as an Omega blocking pattern is in place with upper low pressure over the Gulf of Alaska and the northeast CONUS, with high pressure over the southern CONUS. Presently, the forecast area remains on the cooler side of the ridge, although the thermal ridge off to the west is expected to slide eastward through the week.
We could see a few showers continuing to roll into the Van Buren County region through the night so we will keep the low POP going mainly for that region. Additional nights of frost and/or freezing temperatures are likely through most of this week but tonight's Freeze warning will be the final frost/freeze related headline issuance for the fall as the growing season draws to a close. - Cold Snap Turns Warm with Fair Weather into the Weekend Models remain in good agreement as a large upper level ridge builds over the Great Plains and through southern Canada. That ridge will dominate the weather pattern into the weekend.
Cold temps aloft in the core of the upper trough will foster steep lapse rates in the dendritic growth zone (DGZ), which may result in some graupel with the heaviest showers this afternoon as well. A Freeze Warning remains in effect where confidence is highest (70+%) in sub-freezing lows, though the aforementioned clear skies and light-calm winds will, as always, favor considerable variability in min temps which will probably remain 33-35 in urban centers but (if you believe the 00z HRRR) drop into the 20s in low-lying, rural areas where the coolest air will pool.