Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A large upper closed low pressure system is located near the Four Corners region at midday. Closer to home, high pressure has kept conditions dry and seasonably warm. The upper low to our southwest will quickly advance northeast over western KS by midday tomorrow. Models seem to be in better agreement about the exact location of the low center and an associated deformation band on its western periphery. Chances for this also appear low at this time as most models keep temperatures above freezing below 850mb.
/29 (Now through Thursday) Upper ridging continues to build in across the area through Thursday. A cutoff upper low over the southwestern U. Temperatures top out in the upper 60's to near 70 today, with Thursday being warmer in the lower to middle 70's over most of the area.
Updated at 1103 AM CST Wed Jan 29 2025 - Sunny and warmer today.
(This afternoon through Thursday) A mid-level ridge axis is situated west of Central Alabama today promoting westerly flow with mild temperatures and dry conditions expected this afternoon. Cloud cover will increase across the west after midnight as deeper moisture begins to develop over the Lower MS River Valley, and the ridge axis shifts east of the area. A few impulses may develop in the low-level southwesterly flow which could support occasional light rain across the northwestern portions of the area during the day, but most of the area will remain dry and mostly cloudy.
(The rest of today ) First band of light rain is spreading across northeast Oklahoma this morning as large scale lift develops across the region in advance of the upper level low currently over Arizona.
Low pressure lingering over Arizona will result in a few rain and snow showers over Mohave County today, with dry conditions elsewhere.
300 PM CST Wed Jan 29 2025 - Record highs may be in jeopardy tomorrow with cooler but still above average temperatures expected through the weekend.
132 PM MST Wed Jan 29 2025 KEY MESSAGES: 1) High pressure will continue to drive mild and dry weather conditions through Thursday.
While low level warm/moisture advection will continue today N of a Nwd moving warm front extending from the TX Hill Country to the Middle TX Coast, areas to the N where the convection will become more numerous from NE TX/SE OK/SW AR/extreme NW LA should see only a minimal warmup today, maintaining temps in the 50s. Milder temps should be observed farther S where warm advection will be more pronounced away from the convection/just N of the developing warm front. The warm front will maintain -RA/-SHRA as it arrives by 30/12Z, then -SHRA/TSRA becomes more likely through the end of the period with the main round of storms on southeasterly surface winds at 10 mph.
Rain chances will increase through the evening and become likely overnight, continuing through Thursday, associated with a warm front.
Temperatures across the Keys are on a steady increase into the low to mid 70s today as winds veer easterly to southeasterly.
Both high pressure at the surface and ridging aloft remain in control of our weather. Skies will remain partly cloudy to cloudy, with highs ranging from the lower 60s north to lower 70s south. /NF/ Today and Tonight: A cutoff low pressure system over the Desert Southwest will deepen as it wobbles toward the Central High Plains today and tonight and strengthens warm, moist advection across our region.
- Vigorous jet stream sets up across the state over the weekend, bringing gusty winds that will finally erode any remaining cold pools, leading to warmer temperatures.
240 PM MST Wed Jan 29 2025 - Dry and warmer through the work week.
524 PM MST Wed Jan 29 2025 KEY MESSAGES: 1) High pressure will continue to drive mild and dry weather conditions through Thursday.
The deep cut-off low pressure system continues to move slowly eastward. A weak low-level high pressure system has developed over the Rockies illustrated by RAP mesoanalysis. This created a subtle Rex Block-like pattern in conjunction with the strong low pressure system. Trends in ensembles continue to have the system move faster and be warmer; lighter accumulations and nearly no snow is expected as a result.
Sea surface temperatures in the lower to middle 50's over the bay and sound and moisture return characterized by lower 60's dewpoints overriding these cool SST's in conjunction with light low level winds is an optimal setup for dense marine fog to advect onshore.
517 PM CST Wed Jan 29 2025 Updated at 501 PM CST Wed Jan 29 2025 - Sunny and warmer today.
Today, synoptic setup over North America is comprised of upper ridging into the Canadian Rockies, broad upper troughing extending out of Hudson Bay to eastern Great Lakes/Northeast regions, and a cutoff low over the Desert Southwest, as depicted by water vapor satellite imagery. Within our area of eastern ND into northwest/west-central MN, northwest flow aloft exists between upper ridging to the west and troughing to the east, with more influence of the upstream upper ridging, mainly by way of warmer than average temperatures today and tomorrow (also with the help of a dwindling snowpack exposing dark soil farm fields). Warm air mass aloft, upper ridging, mostly clear skies, and a westerly breezy Thursday will help push temperatures well above average; perhaps flirting with record high temperatures (most are low 40s at climate sites), with a 10% chance of achieving.
By Thursday night, the closed low will begin to be absorbed into the main flow, and a trailing cold front will begin to approach the area.
- High pressure returns later this week with warming temperatures area wide. Water vapor imagery this afternoon suggests the upper low is sliding eastward across the central NM/AZ state line. Snow showers will continue to roll through the lower elevations through the evening but any additional accumulations will be light. Still expecting another 5 to 8 inches in the higher elevations and 1 to 3 along the eastern 160 corridor through tonight.
539 PM CST Wed Jan 29 2025 - Record highs may be in jeopardy tomorrow with cooler but still above average temperatures expected through the weekend.
A dry but cool weather pattern will continue through Thursday as low pressure remains in place across the region.
529 PM CST Wed Jan 29 2025 (This afternoon through Thursday) A mid-level ridge axis is situated west of Central Alabama today promoting westerly flow with mild temperatures and dry conditions expected this afternoon. Cloud cover will increase across the west after midnight as deeper moisture begins to develop over the Lower MS River Valley, and the ridge axis shifts east of the area. A few impulses may develop in the low-level southwesterly flow which could support occasional light rain across the northwestern portions of the area during the day, but most of the area will remain dry and mostly cloudy.
Ridging over the GReat Basin region will allow for dry conditions and light winds along with warming temperatures through Thursday.
-Dense fog expected through Thursday morning with some areas in the northwest Panhandles with some freezing fog conditions at times.
Adjusted temperatures slightly upward to account for the warmer observations, especially across the south.
1009 PM CST Wed Jan 29 2025 (This afternoon through Thursday) A mid-level ridge axis is situated west of Central Alabama today promoting westerly flow with mild temperatures and dry conditions expected this afternoon. Cloud cover will increase across the west after midnight as deeper moisture begins to develop over the Lower MS River Valley, and the ridge axis shifts east of the area. A few impulses may develop in the low-level southwesterly flow which could support occasional light rain across the northwestern portions of the area during the day, but most of the area will remain dry and mostly cloudy.
302 AM EST Thu Jan 30 2025 High pressure will build across and offshore the southern Middle Atlantic today and to near Bermuda by tonight.
1157 PM CST Wed Jan 29 2025 - Record highs may be in jeopardy tomorrow with cooler but still above average temperatures expected through the weekend.
Tonight, the cold core of the upper low will move over the region. Since this system is cutoff with no PV attached to the higher latitude PV/ polar vortex, the system will lack the ability to entrain cold air into it. Forecast soundings show a nearly isothermal layer 5000 to 6000 feet deep about 2-3 degrees C above freezing. This strong westerly flow over the Rockies helps strengthen the lee-side trough in the High Plains.
The higher snow covered valleys and basins hold onto the cold air under inversions.
422 AM CST Thu Jan 30 2025 Today through Friday: An upper level low and associated cold front over the Southern and Central Plains will push towards the Mississippi Valley, bringing the threat for storms and severe weather to the ArkLaMiss region tonight. Despite persistent cloud cover, temperatures are expected to reach the low/mid 70s. As the aforementioned cold front pushes through the area, a line of storms is expected to develop along the frontal boundary. /SW/ Friday night through next Thursday: An unseasonably warm weather pattern can be expected through the long range forecast period as an anomalously strong mid level ridge builds over the central and eastern CONUS.
547 AM CST Thu Jan 30 2025 (Today through Friday) Big upper level low over the southwest states this morning is forecast to eject eastward over the next several days. This upper feature will be coupled with a surface cold front that is forecast to push across Alabama Friday morning to early afternoon. Given the forcing associated with the front, and large scale lift provided ahead of the upper low, the main band of showers may be accompanied by a few thunderstorms.
Meanwhile to our south, you can see the initial stages of an expansive low pressure system sprawling across much of the southern and central Great Plains.
Southerly winds in advance of the storm will become gusty on coastal headlands and ridgetops late tonight and early Friday morning in Del Norte and Humboldt counties where 850 mb winds are in excess of 50 kt in the NAM. However the lower level stability and strength of the inversion at around 1500-2000 feet is not very supportive of strong gusts at sea level at the coast.
244 AM MST Thu Jan 30 2025 High pressure will gradually build over the region today into Friday, but expect one more day of chilly temperatures.
625 AM EST Thu Jan 30 2025 (Today through Friday) High pressure over South Florida will continue to move slowly east into the Western Atlantic Waters, as a mid to upper level trough moves from the Western United States into the Central United States. There could also be some patchy fog over the interior and west coast metro areas early this morning and again early Friday morning due to the low level moisture in place. The only exception is for the east coast metro areas where the highs will remain in the mid to upper 70s.
The North Bay will likely recieve the highest amounts of rain. Upper level ridging will hold through much of the day, but will begin to flatten later this evening as an upper level trof moves into the PAC NW.
Meanwhile, the slow-moving mid/upper low over northeastern New Mexico early this morning will continue to drift to the east- northeast today, and it is to the south of this low where the where a tight mid level height gradient and roughly 40 kt 700 mb flow will mix to the surface with winds likely to push into the 20-30 mph range on the Caprock and a little lighter off of it in line with MOS and NBM 90th percentile. Clearing skies, drier air, and the added downslope component will help push temperatures into the 50s and 60s in line with the slightly warmer NBM. A modest Canadian cold front will wrap through the forecast area this evening on the back side of the departing mid/upper level circulation.
As a result of these increasing winds, the High Wind Warning has been maintained while the Wind Advisory has been extended to include the southern tier of Lea County along with Pecos and Winkler Counties. Highs top out in the upper 50s and low 60s areawide, and lows tonight will drop down into the low to mid 30s for most under clear skies.
659 AM CST Thu Jan 30 2025 Today through Friday: An upper level low and associated cold front over the Southern and Central Plains will push towards the Mississippi Valley, bringing the threat for storms and severe weather to the ArkLaMiss region tonight. Despite persistent cloud cover, temperatures are expected to reach the low/mid 70s. As the aforementioned cold front pushes through the area, a line of storms is expected to develop along the frontal boundary. /SW/ Friday night through next Thursday: An unseasonably warm weather pattern can be expected through the long range forecast period as an anomalously strong mid level ridge builds over the central and eastern CONUS.
- A lot of uncertainty remains with the incoming system with a couple of possible scenarios involving snow and freezing rain. These colder temperatures have been present throughout western MT and Lemhi County ID, excluding the Flathead Valley which has had a blanket of stratus clouds keeping it warmer. This will change over the next couple days as a warmer and moister air mass is ushered in from the southwest.
Southwest CONUS upper low finally beginning to pinwheel ENE. The highest amounts will likely be south of US-30 given better moisture convergence there. There will likely be a brief break late tonight/early Fri before positively tilted midlevel trough arrives. However, the window of sub-freezing temps with enough residual ascent/moisture is very limited and little/no accumulation is expected given wet/warm-ish ground. However, a quick transition to IFR and LIFR conditions is expected overnight as an upper low approaches the region.
550 AM CST Thu Jan 30 2025 Showers and isolated thunderstorms will overspread the Mid-South today ahead of a cold front which will move across Arkansas.
903 AM EST Thu Jan 30 2025 High pressure will shift off to the east today with low pressure approaching from the the Southern Plains moving into the Ohio Valley overnight. Widespread rain associated with this system will develop this afternoon through tonight and then diminish on Friday as a cold front pushes through the area.
However, not certain how much rain will be able to reach the surface as it is dependent on how much of the isentropically driven showers will be eaten away by the low level dry air monster. Soundings have a fairly significant dry airmass in the lowest 2 km of atmosphere, owing to our dry weather leading into this event.
Showers and isolated thunderstorms will overspread the Mid-South today ahead of a cold front which will move across Arkansas.
and upper closed low to the west. As the closed low to the west moves slowly closer to the state this morning. A vorticity max will surge NE around the ERN periphery of the upper closed low by this evening. with drier conditions expected for Fri and Fri night as the upper low moves east over AR. with the main upper low moving overhead.
Satellite composites show a plume of moisture surging up through the Ozarks before wrapping around the low in western Kansas, with satellite-observed PW values around 1. The low-level jet is strengthening and will continue to bring this upstream moisture towards south-central Missouri as the upper low pushes northeast through the day Thursday. The low continues to hook northeast, and the vigorous vapor transport into the low will wrap around the backside and back towards us (this time, from the northwest) during the day on Friday. As the low occludes, how much of the moisture will actually get back this far south is in question, with only 15-40% PoPs during the day on Friday.
215 AM MST Thu Jan 30 2025 KEY MESSAGES: - Quiet and dry weather will continue Thursday into early Friday under the continued influence of high pressure overhead. With yet another day under the continued influence of high pressure, Thursday is shaping up to another quiet and dry day with highs in the 20s/30s/40s and increasing upper-level clouds building in later today into tonight. Given a cold, stagnant airmass in place ahead of the arrival of this precipitation, mostly snow is expected on Friday and Friday night with a rain/snow mix possible across the Lower Snake River Plain and ERN Magic Valley south into Utah. This is where we could see locally heavier snow totals and or mixed precipitation with pockets of freezing rain possible as warmer air overruns colder air at the surface.
415 AM EST Thu Jan 30 2025 High pressure will shift off to the east today with low pressure approaching from the the Southern Plains moving into the Ohio Valley overnight. Widespread rain associated with this system will develop this afternoon through tonight and then diminish on Friday as a cold front pushes through the area.
A potent upper level low that will bring widespread heavy rainfall across the FA today is spinning over New Mexico this morning with deep layer moisture now beginning to advect in from the southwest. As the low ejects northeast and transitions to an open wave, strong PVA combined with isentropic lift and frontogenesis will cause a band of rain to quickly overcome the dry boundary layer through the morning hours.
A dry but cool weather pattern will continue through Thursday as low pressure remains in place across the region. Warmer weather is expected starting Friday.
500 mb pattern early this morning shows upper low in SW Kansas which is moving northeast. This high is quickly pushed off and 500 mb pattern will go to a more zonal or even WSW flow this weekend as moisture moves in from the Pacific northwest and into the International border region. vs cooler in Devils Lake area with near 30 as colder air starts to ooze in this aftn.
Could see some isolated storms over our far southern counties, but even there instability will be very limited with MLCAPE values only ~100 J/kg or less with relatively warmer air aloft than waves with a more neutral or (rare) negative tilt.
A tightening pressure gradient on the back side of the high pressure from our previous discussions will cause winds to increase today and tonight, but it won't be anything significant. Heading into the weekend, low pressure that is currently over the central U. As this happens, a cold front associated with it will start to drag across the Gulf and eventually Florida. But if it deteriorates, the high pressure may be able to dominate and give us relatively warmer temperatures.
High pressure will gradually build over the region today into Friday, but expect one more day of chilly temperatures.
627 AM EST Thu Jan 30 2025 High pressure will shift off to the east today with low pressure approaching from the the Southern Plains moving into the Ohio Valley overnight. Widespread rain associated with this system will develop this afternoon through tonight and then diminish on Friday as a cold front pushes through the area.
214 AM MST Thu Jan 30 2025 KEY MESSAGES: 1) High pressure will continue to drive mild and dry weather conditions today.
Warm air and moisture advection on the eastern periphery of this upper low has continued across Kansas as the first associated band of precipitation has made its way into far northern and northeastern Kansas. The aforementioned mid and low-level dry air intrusion ahead of the upper low will limit widespread rain production until deeper moisture profiles become common by the afternoon hours across eastern Kansas. A deformation zone will likely set up across northeast Kansas as the upper low passes over eastern Kansas Thursday evening and into early Friday morning, leading to moderate to heavy rainfall. Luckily, the chilly north breeze will not last long as the 850mb ridge axis passes to our east Friday night.
(This afternoon through Friday night) WV imagery this afternoon shows the ejecting upper trough just north of the Panhandles, and ejecting east. Closer to home, westerlies are increasing around the base of the trough, making for a gusty afternoon with a heaping helping of BLDU. Despite a downslope warming component this afternoon, cooler air behind a Pac front should keep highs a little cooler than yesterday. The slow exit of the trough and momentum should keep winds going for a few hours after sundown, and mixing should inhibit radiational cooling, keeping overnight minimums at or slightly above last night's lows. Friday, thicknesses increase on the backside of the trough in dry, northwest flow aloft.
Despite that, warm advection will push temperatures into the lower to middle 60s for most areas, with upper 60s in our southwestern forecast areas from the Shoals to southern Cullman County.
Deep closed low continues to be well depicted on water vapor, now entering SW Kansas. Next challenge will be as the upper low begins to eject and open as it moves towards the region. Models signals remain clear of a strong deformation/fgen zone materializing Friday morning and persisting through the day before shifting E as the trough moves away. While some thawing may have occurred from the warmer temps and rainfall, much will still end up ponding or runoff with some small potential for flooding issues.
216 PM CST Thu Jan 30 2025 Current afternoon global guidance still show a upper level low along with an associated cold front hovering over the Southern Plains. This upper level low is still on track to continue its eastward push towards the Lower Mississippi Valley. As the cold front push through our forecast area, a line of storms will develop along the frontal boundary. A few isolated tornadoes cannot be ruled out given the high shear in place. On top of the severe potential later this evening, global guidance highlights the pressure gradient ahead of the cold front tightening. Elsewhere, areas east of I-55 will peak into the low 70s.
ANS Showers and isolated thunderstorms will overspread the Mid-South today ahead of a cold front which will move across Arkansas.
However, additional scattered showers will be possible later this afternoon across northeast Oklahoma as the upper level low currently spinning over southwest Kansas approaches the area.
In fact, multiple reports of flooding has already been received across the higher terrain of McCurtain County, although rates will soon be diminishing over this area. The mid-morning sfc analysis indicates that our warm front has mixed N into Srn AR/WCntrl MS, although sfc based instability remains virtually non-existent, although PW's of 1. The short term progs continue to depict the convection gradually shifting E across the remainder of the region late this morning through the afternoon, as the closed low centered over SE CO wobbles over SW KS/the OK Panhandle, with the attendant trough rotating E into W TX this afternoon.
(This afternoon through Friday) An upper-level low is progressing across the Four Corners with a ridge axis passing over Central Alabama today. Rain chances are still expected to increase across the west after midnight with the cold front passing west to east through the area during the day tomorrow.
This afternoon, a large H5 closed low pressure system was centered over far southwest KS. All precipitation is expected to be in liquid form with temperatures at the surface and through the lower layers of the atmosphere remaining above freezing. Amounts decrease to the south and west, with the lowest amounts expected in north-central KS where 0. Isolated flooding still appears to be possible, especially in northeast KS due to the higher expected QPF and continued snowmelt.
Additional showers will develop Friday afternoon as the trough passes through the area.
100 PM EST Thu Jan 30 2025 Widespread rain tonight into Friday with the next low pressure system.