Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
302 PM EDT Sat Oct 11 2025 - Fog Possible Tonight - Mostly Dry Week Ahead with Slight Rain Chances - Fog Possible Tonight High pressure ridge quickly following the departing low over the eastern Great Lakes tonight will act to evaporate the stratocumulus later this evening. A period of mostly clear skies and light east winds tonight will favor surface temperatures cooling into the lower 40s. Fair/Good ensemble agreement in the pattern across the CONUS this week, featuring a trough/low over the western US and a tendency for ridging over the Midwest. As such, Michigan's weather will be influenced mostly by sprawling regional high pressure systems, which will once again keep us mostly dry with relatively light winds.
Behind a slow moving weak cold front dropping south through central Kentucky, a broken deck of cloud cover remains along and north of Interstate 64. Tonight, the positively tilted upper ridge stretching over the Ohio Valley will continue to keep skies clear as winds ease. Temperatures will fall into the low 40s to low 50s with Louisville expected to be the only spot remaining in the 50s.
No significant changes to this forecast package from the previous one as the mid-upper level high pressure remains anchored over Mexico and Texas through at least mid-week. The high temperatures this weekend will remain in the upper 80s to lower 90s inland and in the mid to upper 80s along the coasts, while the lows tonight and Sunday night remain in the 60s inland and the lower to mid 70s along the immediate coasts. Mid level heights will rise to 590-593 dams during the first half of the week as the high pressure moves over Central TX. Sunny skies, southeast flow, and an increase in low level moisture could lead to warmer temperatures, with more inland areas seeing highs in the lower 90s - roughly between 6-10 degrees above normal.
A vertically stacked low pressure system will continue its southeastward drift into New York State this evening and tonight. There is just enough layer RH at times for forced shower activity, generally closer to the central area of low pressure. At the same time, an expansive coastal low pressure system moving northward will be slinging moisture into PA tonight into Sunday, keeping POPs along the far eastern border of the CWA into early Sunday. The coastal low pressure system will linger off the mid Atlantic coast while high pressure builds in from the northeast and upper level ridging builds in from the Texas Gulf Coast.
(Rest of today through Sunday) A high pressure system sits just to our northwest, on the KY/TN border. Calm conditions can be expected through the weekend while this high moves off and the following high situates itself in the south. (Sunday Night through next Saturday) Into the work week, a high pressure system is forecasted to be the dominant feature, leading to the increase in our temperatures. They will level off in the low 80s for highs by mid-week, with morning lows in the low to mid 50s. High pressure also means no precipitation in the forecast for the period, so things will remain dry.
Cloud cover over SD and NE will gradually move northeast, slowly covering our CWA throughout today as an upper-level trough crosses the Rockies. A strong, southerly LLJ will develop today across the Northern Plains in response the nearing trough, causing WAA and strong southeasterly surface winds over MN. The WAA and upper- level diffluence downstream of the aforementioned trough are what drive the QPF. It isn't until the trough and cold front arrive towards Sunday evening that rain becomes more widespread across the CWA.
140 PM EDT Sat Oct 11 2025 Coastal low pressure will linger through Sunday before shifting northeast while high pressure remains inland. Early afternoon satellite and surface observations show deepening low pressure was located about 200 NM east/southeast of the Savannah River Entrance. The low will continue deepen as it moves north tonight, likely reaching the North Carolina coast by daybreak Sunday.
An upper-level ridge will amplify over the Midwest on Sunday, with low to mid-level flow becoming increasingly south-southwesterly through the day.
Temperatures with abundant sunshine have climbed into the lower to mid 70s in most locations.
Morning fog has kept temperatures a bit cooler this morning in those areas, mainly in the lower 60s. Highs should still make it into the lower 70s (even where fog persisted) and mid/upper 70s elsewhere with abundant sunshine overall.
1212 PM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025 - High pressure will keep the next 7 days dry and seasonally mild. Despite the Omega blocking-like pattern's hold, there are subtleties at play in the otherwise 7 day forecast of dry and seasonally mild conditions. One example is our current cloud cover associated with a subtle pva kink in the overtop-the-ridge flow.
However some afternoon thunderstorms may develop as a West Coast trough moves closer to the area. Main rain band from whats left of tropical cyclone Priscilla is pushing off to the east, with only the eastern Rim and White Mountains still getting a steady rain. Approaching West Coast trough is bringing some decent shear across the area to help assist anything that gets going and could lead to some stronger and maybe even a couple severe storms, but storms so far this afternoon have been slow to get going. For Sunday there's still plenty of leftover subtropical moisture and some leftover lift from the trough moving to our north to generate a few more showers and thunderstorms across the area, though most of the activity will be south of I-40.
Due to the low humidity temperatures will fall quickly this evening. We bumped up rain chances (from the base NBM guidance) into the 15 to 35% range, with the highest chances expected during the afternoon. Greater uncertainty in the high temperature forecast exists for eastern (particularly east central) Georgia where cloud clover and light rainfall could limit afternoon highs to the low 70s.
- Dry weather conditions with cooler mornings will prevail through this weekend. Based upon trends in the last 24 hours, leaned a touch warmer for highs today. /DC/ Quiet and dry weather conditions will continue today across our CWA thanks to high pressure ridging and light northerly flow under mostly clear skies. Expect afternoon highs to peak into the low/mid 80s areawide. Dry conditions will persist looking ahead into Sunday with daytime highs peaking into the low/mid 80s. Similar conditions are occur Sunday night under clear skies with lows in the low/mid 50s. Heading into the new work week, the upper ridge axis will shift slightly eastward towards the ArkLaMiss Region.
Lastly, a warmer night will be on tap as an approaching warm front helps overnight lows stay in the upper 50s to low 60s.
142 PM PDT Sat Oct 11 2025 * Chilly tonight into Sunday morning with lows near freezing in lower elevations and well below freezing for Sierra valleys. This weekend we'll be in between storm systems as a low pressure trough exits eastward across the Great Basin tonight. With clearing skies and decreasing winds, lows late tonight into early Sunday morning will dip to near freezing for western NV valleys, with sub-freezing temperatures for typically colder rural sites across northeast CA and western NV. While we're near the typical end of the growing season, those with sensitive vegetation outdoors should take action to prevent it from freezing tonight.
- Cooler temperatures to start the new week. For Sunday, temperatures will warm into the 70s ahead of the approaching cold front. Hi-res guidance depicts development of multiple rounds of scattered showers along & ahead of the surface cold front. Winds turn to the northwest behind the front and a surge of drier, cooler air will arrive just in time for the new work week.
252 PM EDT Sat Oct 11 2025 High pressure exits to the east today with a weak cold front passing through this evening.
A sprawling ridge of high pressure extending from Quebec southwestward to the southern Plains will dominate the weather across central Illinois over the next 24 hours.
101 PM EDT Sat Oct 11 2025 Clouds and isolated light precipitation chances with a low pressure system over the Great Lakes.
Upper trough and associated cold front are swinging through the region today, bringing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms, mountain snow, breezy winds, and much cooler temperatures. Expect a little more sun on Sunday, but daytime temperatures will run up to 15 degrees below normal still with widespread 40s to low 50s and 30s in the higher terrain. Snow levels will drop below 6,000 feet behind the front, allowing 1"-4" of snow to accumulate above 6,500 feet elevation in the eastern highlands late tonight into early Sunday, with up to around 1 inch in the highest peaks of the central mountains today, as well.
927 AM MDT Sat Oct 11 2025 Much cooler today as upper low comes inland from the northwest coast. High temps 15 degrees cooler than yesterday in Harney County, to as much as 30 degrees cooler in Twin Falls County. Another 5 degrees cooler Sunday as the upper low passes directly overhead.
From synopsis, an elongated area of low pressure across the Keys will continue slowly drifting northeastward today. This low will continue organizing and strengthening as it heads northeastward adjacent to the Mid- Atlantic coast. As it does this, it will drive an early season cold front towards the Keys, further shifting winds to the north to northeast. Northerly swells will be possible in our western marine zones today and tonight due to the influence of the low pressure system. In the wake of the front, high pressure builds across the eastern United States leading to freshening northeasterly breezes heading towards mid- week.
900 AM PDT Sat Oct 11 2025 Cooler with drying and a return of the marine layer for the next two days.
- Temperatures slightly warm into the low to mid 80s through the end of the week. Calm weather continues tonight with high pressure remaining overhead. (Rest of today through Sunday) A high pressure system sits just to our northwest, on the KY/TN border. Calm conditions can be expected through the weekend while this high moves off and the following high situates itself in the south. (Sunday Night through next Saturday) Into the work week, a high pressure system is forecasted to be the dominant feature, leading to the increase in our temperatures. They will level off in the low 80s for highs by mid-week, with morning lows in the low to mid 50s. High pressure also means no precipitation in the forecast for the period, so things will remain dry.
644 PM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025 (This afternoon through Sunday) The upper level trough over the southeast will eventually gain a cutoff low, then begin moving off the coast of the southeast CONUS. During this period the winds will still be a little elevated since the pressure gradient between the trough and the ridge to the west is bit tighter, but once it starts going that will help high pressure build in and bring lighter and more variable winds. Other than that, dry and seasonable temperatures for Oct in the low to mid 80s continue for this weekend.
536 PM MDT Sat Oct 11 2025 - Waves of showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue overnight, mainly over the higher terrain. - Heavy rainfall and localized flooding possible for the higher elevations of the eastern San Juans overnight. Dry elsewhere, with a late afternoon cold front dropping south through the plains into Sunday evening.
622 PM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025 - After a warm Sunday with highs in the upper 70s to 80s, slightly cooler weather is expected with highs in the 60s to 70s - A surface boundary lays out across the area tomorrow as a series of waves move through the flow. High pressure is sliding east of the area today as an upper level a weak upper level wave moves northeast of the area.
728 PM EDT Sat Oct 11 2025 High pressure will provide dry and warm conditions today. Dry conditions prevail today as a weak cold front washes out across the area, providing nothing more than a bit of mid-level cloud cover. Highs today will top out in the low/mid 70s across the lowlands, with upper 50s and 60s in the mountains, all amid mostly sunny skies. Lows tonight will be in the 40s, with highs on Sunday in the low/mid 70s across the lowlands, with 50s to mid 60s in the mountains.
632 PM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025 (This evening through Sunday) Water vapor imagery this afternoon reveals a trough moving across the Carolinas as an upper ridge builds in from the west. We will have another cool start Sunday morning with lows dropping back into the low to mid 50s.
Ridging moves off to the east this afternoon and evening, with H5 troughing taking shape across Montana. An upper low is expected to close off later this evening in southern Saskatchewan, then move east into Manitoba through the day Sunday. Strong warm air and moisture advection prevails ahead of the upper low along southwest flow.
556 PM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025 - High pressure will keep the next 7 days dry and seasonally mild.
620 PM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025 - Dry weather conditions with cooler mornings will prevail through this weekend. The Gulf Coast region will remain locked in between synoptic ridging to the west over south TX and cutoff low over the east. Ridge to the west will propagates eastward across the ArkLaTex into the Gulf Coast region through midweek. As it moves near or over the northern Gulf, mean ridging will fall from around 593 to 595DM to around 586DM into mid to late week.
The warmest locations as of 1 pm was DLS and EAT in the low 60s. Chances for impacts from snow amounts (5-70%) or snow rates (5-40%) are well relegated to the higher terrain along the Cascades.
741 PM EDT Sat Oct 11 2025 - Fog Possible Tonight - Mostly Dry Week Ahead with Slight Rain Chances - Fog Possible Tonight High pressure ridge quickly following the departing low over the eastern Great Lakes tonight will act to evaporate the stratocumulus later this evening. A period of mostly clear skies and light east winds tonight will favor surface temperatures cooling into the lower 40s. Fair/Good ensemble agreement in the pattern across the CONUS this week, featuring a trough/low over the western US and a tendency for ridging over the Midwest. As such, Michigan's weather will be influenced mostly by sprawling regional high pressure systems, which will once again keep us mostly dry with relatively light winds.
217 PM PDT Sat Oct 11 2025 Cooler with drying and a return of the marine layer through the weekend.
Within the last hour, shallow cold air advection showers have been waxing and waning as they slide southeast across the outer Gulf and portions of the Lower Keys. In the wake of the front, high pressure builds across the eastern United States leading to freshening northeasterly breezes heading towards mid- week.
- A cold front is set to arrive Sunday night, providing cooler temperatures in the 60s and 70s Mon-Tue.
Main rain band from whats left of tropical cyclone Priscilla is pushing off to the east, with only the eastern Rim and White Mountains still getting a steady rain. Approaching West Coast trough is bringing some decent shear across the area to help assist anything that gets going and could lead to some stronger and maybe even a couple severe storms, but storms so far this afternoon have been slow to get going. For Sunday there's still plenty of leftover subtropical moisture and some leftover lift from the trough moving to our north to generate a few more showers and thunderstorms across the area, though most of the activity will be south of I-40.
Main rain band from whats left of tropical cyclone Priscilla is pushing off to the east, with only the eastern Rim and White Mountains still getting a steady rain. Approaching West Coast trough is bringing some decent shear across the area to help assist anything that gets going and could lead to some stronger and maybe even a couple severe storms, but storms so far this afternoon have been slow to get going. For Sunday there's still plenty of leftover subtropical moisture and some leftover lift from the trough moving to our north to generate a few more showers and thunderstorms across the area, though most of the activity will be south of I-40. Another round of showers and thunderstorms is possible Monday as southwesterly flow ahead of another West Coast trough approaches the area.
A sprawling ridge of high pressure extending from Quebec southwestward to the southern Plains will dominate the weather across central Illinois over the next 24 hours. pushing a weak cold front toward central Illinois.
An upper trough will move eastward across our CWA this evening. Another upper trough will move southward along the northwest coast Sunday. These troughs will maintain cool, showery weather through Monday. Showers from the first trough will affect northern areas tonight and Sunday morning. Showers from the second trough Sunday afternoon through Monday will stay mainly in Oregon.
1247 AM EDT Sun Oct 12 2025 High pressure will provide for dry conditions through the end of the week. Temperatures will be a few degrees above normal for the next few days before slightly cooler temperatures arrive for mid week. Highs today will be in the low to mid 70s. Mid level ridging will build into the Ohio Valley tonight into Monday. The large scale, positively tilted ridge continues to be in control of our sensible weather for the start of the working week. To our northwest, an occluding low over Manitoba continues to work east, further amplifying the ridge and trailing a long cold front down into CONUS/ Great Plains.
Ridging from this high extended to the Great Lakes, then southward to the Gulf coast. East of this ridge, a no'easter type system was spinning east of the Carolinas. Except for a few higher clouds rounding the western periphery of this low, effects from the system should remain well to our east. High temperatures later today should rise into the mid 70s higher elevations, with near 80 degree readings in the warmer valleys.
We will remain under the influence of both strong sfc ridging associated with high pressure over the Canadian Maritimes and upper ridging over the eastern half of the CONUS. Little overall change to the patter as we start the new week as we remain under both surface and upper ridging.
1232 AM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025 - Dry weather conditions with cooler mornings will prevail through this weekend. The Gulf Coast region will remain locked in between synoptic ridging to the west over south TX and cutoff low over the east.
An area of low pressure will meander off the coast of the Carolinas today, gradually moving northeast. Near-normal temperatures are forecast across east central Florida, with highs in the low 80s and lows in the 60s.
Ridging moves off to the east this afternoon and evening, with H5 troughing taking shape across Montana. An upper low is expected to close off later this evening in southern Saskatchewan, then move east into Manitoba through the day Sunday. Strong warm air and moisture advection prevails ahead of the upper low along southwest flow. Strong cold air advection will combine with sharp pressure rises and good mixing Sunday afternoon, leading to gusty west to northwest winds as the low continues eastward.
Associated lee trough will develop on Sunday, which will result in gusty south winds from late morning into the afternoon hours.
(Today and tonight) The high pressure system that has been overhead the past few days will shift east today.
206 AM EDT Sun Oct 12 2025 Coastal low pressure will linger through today before shifting northeast while high pressure remains inland. At the surface, Low pressure off our coast will gradually move to the north. A decent gradient of moisture will persist from west to east, with the lower PWATs remaining inland and the highest PWATs offshore. The NBM reflect this, with the highest POPs in these locations by the afternoon, with POPs a bit lower into our GA counties. The highest QPF will be across the Charleston Tri-County and far inland, with lower QPF further south and along the GA coast.
However, this fog will dissipate quickly by mid-morning, with high pressure promoting a mostly clear sky for the remainder of the day.
Behind a slow moving weak cold front dropping south through central Kentucky, a broken deck of cloud cover remains along and north of Interstate 64. Tonight, the positively tilted upper ridge stretching over the Ohio Valley will continue to keep skies clear as winds ease. Temperatures will fall into the low 40s to low 50s with Louisville expected to be the only spot remaining in the 50s. Lows inch slightly warmer into the mid 40s to mid 50s by Monday night.
1231 AM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025 - Dry weather conditions with cooler mornings will prevail through this weekend. The Gulf Coast region will remain locked in between synoptic ridging to the west over south TX and cutoff low over the east.
211 AM EDT Sun Oct 12 2025 A low pressure system tracking along the Atlantic coastline will spread rain east of the Blue Ridge today night before it shifts further north.
Early this morning, on water vapor imagery a upper level trough is evident moving through the central/northern Rockies. An attendant cold front reside across the western High Plains. Today this upper level trough will move out into the northern Plains forcing the cold front to a western Minnesota to southeast Nebraska to central Kansas line by this evening. Moderate WAA advection out ahead of the front coupled with upper level ridging over the area will aid in temperatures rising well above normal with highs generally in the 80s. Tonight the upper level trough over the northern Plains will continue to shift northeastward into the Canadian Plains allow the cold front to sag into the forecast area. This cold front will remain stalled over the forecast area Sunday night into Monday night.
(Today and Tonight) Satellite and surface observations show a broad cutoff low slowly rotating overhead with an attendant surface cyclone off the coastal Carolinas. Locations in/around the I-75 corridor are likely to be on the cooler side thanks to lingering cloud cover and low-end chances for light showers on the left periphery of the aforementioned cyclone.
110 AM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025 - High pressure will keep the bulk of the new week dry and seasonally mild. The strongest H5 heights still occur early in the week, when 588 DM builds overtop our CWA, ridged from the 592 DM centered anticyclone over east TX. The surface circulation is still around the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley anticyclone, so we'll keep the wonderful fetch of northeast to easterlies reinforcing 50s dew points for us as highs top out in the upper 70s to lower 80s; that's about 5-10F above seasonal norms. Patchy fog cannot be ruled out with potential vsby restrictions prior to daybreak, otherwise, high pressure remains the prevalant synoptic pattern influence producing Visual Flight Rules flight conditions.
A cutoff upper low over the southeast states opens up into a trough and ejects northeast across the Mid-Atlantic states today into Monday.
1151 PM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025 - After a warm Sunday with highs in the upper 70s to 80s, slightly cooler weather is expected with highs in the 60s to 70s - A surface boundary lays out across the area tomorrow as a series of waves move through the flow. High pressure is sliding east of the area today as an upper level a weak upper level wave moves northeast of the area.
(Tonight through Monday) Dry northerly flow will continue as slow-moving upper-level trough persists to our east. Temperatures will trend upward, reaching the low to mid 80s on Sunday and Monday as a ridge nudges in from the west.
- Temperatures slightly warm into the low to mid 80s through the end of the week. (Tonight through Monday Night) An area of low pressure to the SE shifts further E as high pressure builds over the SE U. As high pressure remains the dominate feature aloft, pleasant weather will continue for Middle TN.
The previously mentioned upper trough will continue to advance eastward on Sunday. The aforementioned front is expected to slow, stall and eventually weaken on Monday night, with generally decreasing chances for rain from southeast-to-northwest over time as a sub-tropical ridge begins to expand northward from Texas.