Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
622 AM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024 (Today through Saturday) A quiet Friday is in store with some morning fog, but otherwise quiet conditions as high pressure remains in place over the region.
A trailing warm front extends southeast through western AL.
441 AM MDT Fri Sep 13 2024 - Cooler and dry today behind yesterday's cold front. - Unsettled weather pattern for the workweek, with cooler temperatures and precipitation chances. Happy Friday the 13th! In the wake of yesterday's cold front, today is quite a bit cooler than it was a couple days ago. These highs are on the slightly cooler than normal side for mid-September. A few light rain and snow showers linger across northwest portions of the state this morning, but should be mostly gone by noon as the upper low tracks into Canada.
614 AM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024 (Today through Saturday) Mid and upper level ridging drifts overhead of our area. Below seasonal normal moisture levels and subsidence under the ridge keep rain out of the forecast.
414 AM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024 Today through tonight: Overall, the near term forecast will be somewhat unsettled and humid, and a bit cooler than normal. Heading into the new work week, upper ridging will begin to build across the Southern Plains and will start to slowly make its way east towards the southeast CONUS.
706 AM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024 (Today through Saturday) The remnants of Francine will continue to rotate over the Lower Mississippi River Valley today, while weakening. Meanwhile, upper level ridging over the Great Lakes will expand toward the Mid Atlantic coast, with surface ridging extending southward along the Appalachians. Southerly flow around the remnants of Francine and easterly flow associated with the ridge will maintain a low level convergent zone and moisture axis, oriented northwest to southeast across Central Alabama. The moisture axis pivots eastward tonight, as the upper low shifts drifts into the Tennessee Valley.
Forecast Details: The center of post-tropical cyclone Francine is just west of Memphis early this morning - a shift a little farther west than previously thought. The other talking point regarding Francine has been the low tornado threat. However, this high SRH will decrease by late morning just as CAPE values are increasing. This lack of overlap between the highest instability and shear values limits the tornado threat.
While post-tropical Francine unravels over the lower Mississippi River valley, rex block high north of the circulation gradually shifts over the lower Great Lakes into the weekend. Evolution in this pattern along with glancing blow from rockies/northern Plains trough allows feed of GOMEX and Atlantic moisture to increase over western Great Lakes into the weekend.
542 AM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024 (Today through Saturday) Modest ridging will lie over the area in the short term.
- Fair and Very Warm Conditions Today and Saturday Ridging at the sfc and aloft will continue to dominate the wx pattern and result in fair and unseasonably warm wx today and Saturday. Fair weather with minimal wind speeds and wave heights will continue today through the weekend as a high pressure ridge continues to dominate the weather pattern.
CAPE is a bit greater to our south, but the warm frontal boundary is trying to advance a bit further north to just south of MSL through Cullman.
Lots of upper ridging over the region with a very weak upper impulse dropping south out of Canada within the eastern portion of the upper ridging could support an isolated shower, mainly in areas of terrain.
1205 PM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024 (Today through Saturday) A quiet Friday is in store with some morning fog, but otherwise quiet conditions as high pressure remains in place over the region.
H5 analysis this evening had an area of closed low pressure over northern Montana. A trough of low pressure extended south southwest of the low into western Utah and eastern Nevada. North of Francine, high pressure was located over the LP of Michigan. Showers and thunderstorms, in association with the Montana trough, had developed early this evening and were continuing over western portions of the Dakotas. At the surface, low pressure was located over southern portions of Saskatchewan with a cold front extending south into the western Dakotas, the western Nebraska Panhandle and north central Colorado. The before mentioned cold front, will slowly migrate east today, becoming situated over the eastern Panhandle into the northwestern Sandhills later this afternoon. As for highs today, readings will be slightly cooler west of the surface boundary with readings around 80 degrees.
The rain event thus far has been unfortunately disappointing for most, and the high-res guidance keeps up the downer forecast. Gusty winds over the higher terrain of the E TN mountains Saturday night. Discussion: We start the period with the tropical remnants to our west over the Mid Mississippi Valley and a ridge of high pressure both at the surface and aloft to our northeast. This will maintain southeasterly low level flow across our area Saturday night which should be strong enough to produce some gusty winds over the higher terrain of the mountains, although right now winds there look unlikely to be strong enough to warrant a wind advisory.
The low level jet is in response to a cold front that is very slowly moving through eastern North Dakota this afternoon and is progged to push into northwest Minnesota overnight.
Afternoon highs will range from mid 80s to low 90s for eastern OK, but it will be cooler where clouds hold on in northwest AR.
(Tonight through Saturday night) Above average temperatures and humid conditions will trend through the short term period with ridging aloft and the modest southerly winds.
Dew points are in the upper 60s and low 70s across most of Middle TN -- and with air temperatures trying to get into the low 80s in areas that are seeing a bunch of sunshine this morning -- humidities are running pretty high.
123 PM EDT Fri Sep 13 2024 High pressure over the New England states extends toward the Great Lakes region.
Large scale weather pattern will remain transitional over the area with Francine remnants lingering just to the S/SE, larger Rex Block centered to the west, and large western trough.
Temperatures will continue to be on the warm side tonight and tomorrow as the upper ridge continues to remain mostly overhead and thicknesses relatively unchanged (though the axis is slightly to our east tomorrow).
1124 AM MDT Fri Sep 13 2024 - Cooler and dry today behind yesterday's cold front. - Unsettled weather pattern for the workweek, with cooler temperatures and precipitation chances. Happy Friday the 13th! In the wake of yesterday's cold front, today is quite a bit cooler than it was a couple days ago. These highs are on the slightly cooler than normal side for mid-September. A few light rain and snow showers linger across northwest portions of the state this morning, but should be mostly gone by noon as the upper low tracks into Canada.
Synoptic analysis places an upper-level trough centered over the Tennessee Valley associated with the remnants of Post Tropical Cyclone Francine. Closer to home, broad, anticyclonic flow is associated with a ridge centered somewhere in the vicinity of western Cuba. There is increasing confidence that the aforementioned trough will amplify and slowly retrograde southward. This displacement will be primarily attributed to the influence of a strong blocking high over southeastern Canada. The ultimate placement and strength of this upper-level trough will have strong impacts on the sensible weather for the Florida Keys. Should the trough dive east of the Florida Peninsula, a drier air mass can be expected. However, should the trough dive towards the Gulf of Mexico, falling heights coupled with a plume of deep, tropical moisture would support several days of wet bouts.
Mid/upper level ridging will stay with west central Texas, resulting in much warmer than normal temperatures tonight and Saturday.
Northwest flow will dominate the upper level pattern as we remain sandwiched between the remnants of Francine to our east and a weak upper level ridge to our west. Overnight lows will be noticeably warmer in nearly all locations with values in the mid 60s to mid 70s. Even warmer temperatures are expected on Saturday as the weak upper level ridge to our west strengthens a little and slides into the Southern Plains. In addition, energy from TS Ileana in the Pacific will spread across the state, around the top of the ridge. Despite the cloud cover, high temperatures will still be a few degrees warmer that today.
A large area of mid level ridging continues to sit over the Great Lakes in the short term and this acts to shield us from rain which is to our south as a result of the remnants of tropical cyclone Francine.
Pieces of energy were moving through the cyclonic flow on the S side of the upper low which was over Saskatchewan this afternoon. W flow on Saturday will become SW Saturday night ahead of the next trough along the Pacific NW coast.
The clouds have helped keep readings cooler than the past few days over the eastern half of the state. Therefore, have maintained PoPs in those areas along with warmer overnight temperatures with the increasing overcast conditions. If anything, models reinforce the eastern ridge by late in the week keeping Iowa shielded from the threat of precipitation through Friday.
Rain chances will continue into the overnight with lessening chances in the Rio Grande Plains and increasing chances right along the lower Texas coast with probabilities remaining under 20%. Temperatures will be slightly cooler for Saturday, with a slightly more cloud cover and rain chances.
- Cooler temperatures today with ample cloud cover will warm back up this weekend as skies becoming partly sunny. The remnants of hurricane Francine associated with a 1009 mb low pressure in northeast AR will continue to weaken as it drifts ESE into the lower TN river valley overnight and Saturday. A trof of moisture extends northward over the MS river valley and will bring spotty light rain showers to central and southeast IL this weekend with best chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms in sw IL. Strong 588-590 dm 500 mb high pressure ridge over the central Great Lakes and into New England will build back toward IL and bring summertime heat back to the area.
1217 PM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024 (Today through Saturday Night) The remnants of post-tropical cyclone Francine will weaken and slowly shift eastward, not moving very far through the weekend. Temperatures will remain below-average through the weekend, with high temperatures Friday in the lower to mid 70s across much of northern and eastern AR, and in the upper 70s to mid 80s elsewhere in the state, warming slightly by Saturday. Low temps will be in the lower to mid 60s through the weekend.
Early this afternoon, western and central North Dakota continues to remain under southwest flow aloft with a surface cold front slowly moving east across the central part of the state. Tonight's lows will dip into the mid to upper 40s west and the low to mid 50s east.
Across the remainder of the ArkLaTex, conditions have been influenced by an upper-level ridge across Texas which has allowed for mostly sunny skies. At the surface, high pressure across the region to remain in place.
Post Tropical Cyclone Francine will continue to decay across the mid-Mississippi River Valley through this weekend. Have maintained some 10-15% PoPs west of I-39 as a couple weak inverted trough axes may provide subtle forcing during the afternoon, but overall conditions favor a dry forecast for the area through the weekend. Ongoing tropical activity in the southeastern states and a prominent ridge over the Great Lakes region has continued to foster mid-level blocking across the central and eastern CONUS.
1216 PM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024 (Today through Saturday) Mid and upper level ridging drifts overhead of our area. Below seasonal normal moisture levels and subsidence under the ridge keep rain out of the forecast.
Light easterly flow will continue through this evening and tonight as the area remains placed between high pressure over eastern Canada and a weak post-tropical low (Francine) across the Lower Mississippi Valley. After a warm afternoon with temps in the low to mid 80s central and north, to mid 70s far south due to thicker clouds, we'll drop off into the 70s and 60s this this evening/tonight.
1123 AM MDT Fri Sep 13 2024 - Cooler temperatures several degrees below normal most areas can be expected today.
1209 PM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024 (Today through Saturday) Modest ridging will lie over the area in the short term.
1201 PM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024 (Today and tonight) Mid/upper level ridging will reside over the southern Plains today, bringing dry weather and above normal temperatures to the area. A lee trough will develop today, with south winds prevailing. A low level thermal ridge will also strengthen today and contribute to the above normal temperatures across the area. This will result in warm temperatures overnight, with lows in the low to mid 70s.
348 PM EDT Fri Sep 13 2024 High pressure over the New England states extends toward the Great Lakes region.
Mid-level water vapor imagery observations this afternoon show a Rex Block that has continued to deepen as the remnants of Hurricane Francine stall over the MO/AR border, and a long wave trough axis over the western US with the main vorticity maximum pushing into the central Canadian Plains. Overnight tonight, mostly clear conditions should help to drop temperatures into the low 60s as light easterly winds advect additional surface moisture into the area. Additionally, a few showers could develop across central Kansas early Saturday morning within the LLJ and WAA pattern, but the best lift and moisture should stay west of the area, so kept PoPs less than 15 percent due to the low confidence. By Saturday, the upper-level blocking pattern will shift a bit east, advecting in more surface moisture into the region.
Southeast Idaho still looks to be in between systems today as well as tomorrow, bringing dry conditions and warmer temperatures. Looking at the current water vapor imagery, the upper level low system that impacted our area the last couple of days has moved east and north over southern Canada. Farther west there is a weak high pressure ridge centered over Washington and Oregon. Models continue to show weak high pressure to move over our area today. By early Saturday this ridge moves east and slightly, breezy zonal to southwesterly flow sets up over our area. This will bring warmer and continued drier conditions to our area Saturday. Look for daytime temperatures in the 60s and low 70s today and rising to the low 70 to low 80s by Saturday.
121 PM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024 (Today through Saturday Night) Ridging over Texas should bring a period of benign weather into the early weekend. Rising 850mb temperatures and increasing thicknesses due to the ridge shifting eastward should usher in a slight warming trend over the next few days, with highs reaching the upper 80s to mid 90s.
156 PM EDT Fri Sep 13 2024 High pressure will continue to provide dry weather across the Ohio Valley. A blocking pattern to continue with a large mid and upper level ridge centered over the eastern Great Lakes. This ridge will keep the moisture from the remnants of Francine southwest of ILN/s area. A persistent area of high pressure is forecast to keep dry weather across the ILN area through the period.
/DC/ Today through tonight: Overall, the near term forecast will be somewhat unsettled and humid, and a bit cooler than normal. Heading into the new work week, upper ridging will begin to build across the Southern Plains and will start to slowly make its way east towards the southeast CONUS.
207 PM MDT Fri Sep 13 2024 - Warmer and drier conditions through Saturday with little precipitation expected.
The remnants of Francine, which have worked into the southern portion of the ridge, will stay well south of the forecast area. featuring continued reinforcement of western troughing and persistent eastern ridging.
Again, the highest potential for an additional 1-2" will be near the east coast where boundaries interact.
All remains quiet and mild across our Northwoods late this Friday evening as high pressure/strong subsidence/dry air remain firmly in control of our wx. The remnants of Francine, which have worked into the southern portion of the ridge, will stay well south of the forecast area. featuring continued reinforcement of western troughing and persistent eastern ridging.
A weak cloud line developed along the Lower and Middle Keys and produced a few showers that quickly diminished. Looking at the atmospheric profile sampled by the 00Z sounding, the winds in the lower levels are very chaotic and light, which has likely hindered substantial vertical growth.
One is the blocking high centered over the Great Lakes, next are the remnants of Francine, which have slammed on the breaks near the MO Bootheel as it encounters the Great Lakes block, and three is a frontal boundary over the Dakotas. Through this weekend, the blocking high will remain anchored from the Great Lakes over to New England. This blocking high will cause the remnants of Francine to slowly rain themselves out near its currently location this afternoon, with the Dakotas front washing out near the MN border tonight is the main upper support for the front goes around the blocking high up to northwest Hudson Bay.
Post Tropical Cyclone Francine will continue to decay across the mid-Mississippi River Valley through this weekend. Have maintained some 10-15% PoPs west of I-39 as a couple weak inverted trough axes may provide subtle forcing during the afternoon, but overall conditions favor a dry forecast for the area through the weekend. Ongoing tropical activity in the southeastern states and a prominent ridge over the Great Lakes region has continued to foster mid-level blocking across the central and eastern CONUS. Forecast area remains on the western periphery of high pressure, surface and aloft, centered over the eastern Great Lakes region. Low-level east winds and subsidence within the region of high pressure (northeast of decaying tropical remnants off to our south) will make for persistent VFR conditions and modest east winds through the period.
Most areas should see high temperatures a few degrees warmer compared to this afternoon as upper ridging continues to build with highs mainly ranging from the upper 70s to the upper 80s. The easterly fetch should keep adding low-level moisture to the region, which when combined with the high nearby should promote late night and early morning patchy fog and low clouds, but there may be enough wind to keep widespread fog at bay.
- Cooler temperatures today with ample cloud cover will warm back up this weekend as skies becoming partly sunny. Bumgardner The remnants of hurricane Francine associated with a 1009 mb low pressure in northeast AR will continue to weaken as it drifts ESE into the lower TN river valley overnight and Saturday. A trof of moisture extends northward over the MS river valley and will bring spotty light rain showers to central and southeast IL this weekend with best chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms in sw IL. Strong 588-590 dm 500 mb high pressure ridge over the central Great Lakes and into New England will build back toward IL and bring summertime heat back to the area.
The low-level wind profile has also weakened considerably compared to Thu/Thu night, with the main impact/threat evolving into a localized flooding concern. Current temps in the lower/mid 70s also look to drop more into the mid/upper 60s overnight.
Across south-central Kentucky there is just enough clearing that temps have recovered into the lower/mid 80s.
Clouds and breezy winds are keeping temperatures elevated at the current hour and warmer than previously forecast. The rain event thus far has been unfortunately disappointing for most, and the high-res guidance keeps up the downer forecast. Gusty winds over the higher terrain of the E TN mountains Saturday night. Discussion: We start the period with the tropical remnants to our west over the Mid Mississippi Valley and a ridge of high pressure both at the surface and aloft to our northeast. This will maintain southeasterly low level flow across our area Saturday night which should be strong enough to produce some gusty winds over the higher terrain of the mountains, although right now winds there look unlikely to be strong enough to warrant a wind advisory.
While can not rule out the potential for localized flooding again on Saturday, not anticipating the dominant bands coming off the Atlantic that had been causing the higher rain amounts in recent days. Lows Tonight in the lower to mid 70s.
734 PM EDT Fri Sep 13 2024 High pressure over the New England states extends toward the Great Lakes region.
436 PM MDT Fri Sep 13 2024 - Warmer and drier conditions through Saturday with little precipitation expected.
632 PM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024 (Tonight through Saturday night) Above average temperatures and humid conditions will trend through the short term period with ridging aloft and the modest southerly winds.
(Today through Sunday Night) Ridging over Texas will continue to bring relatively benign weather over the weekend.
(Today through Sunday afternoon) WV imagery shows weak ridging this morning over West Texas and Southeast New Mexico. For those who like cooler weather, however, these clouds will decrease thicknesses a bit today, shaving a couple of degrees off of yesterday's highs. still 2-3 F cooler than this morning's. Sunday, an upper trough makes landfall on the west coast in the PacNW, nudging the ridge east and diminishing thicknesses further. This will leave afternoon highs around 10 F above normal, but a couple of degrees cooler than this afternoon.
We transition from cloudy and cool with a few showers to more sun, warmer, and drier. The upper level flow pattern continues to feature a trough over the western US and a ridge over the east, currently centered near the Great Lakes. To the south of this ridge, the remnants of Francine have stalled and weakened over the past few days. As it has weakened it has transitioned more to a mid and upper level low, with showers and thunderstorms associated with pockets of vorticity and lift rotating around this low. While the low itself gradually retreats to the southeast this weekend, the broader trough axis associated with it shifts westward across our area. The warmest temperatures will be in the north and east where confidence in more sunshine is greater and the influence of the eastern US ridge is stronger.
The upper pattern will feature ridging over the northeast CONUS with an upper trough developing and moving into the West Coast through the weekend. A cold front will move toward the Northland today but stall and weaken before it gets too far east into the Northland.
(Today through Sunday) The remnant low of Francine continues to rotate over the Lower Mississippi River Valley today, slightly drifting to the east, but with its center remaining to the west of Central Alabama. As the upper low drifts back westward tonight and tomorrow, the axis will remain over the area, allowing for continued showers and storms. As the upper low weakens, winds aloft have also weakened.
Surface gradient remains weak with a stalled frontal zone in central ND and low pressure generally over western ND and eastern Montana through the TAF period.
Good radiational cooling conditions combined with a drier airmass supports temperatures falling into the low-mid 60s tonight.
Cool and cloudy conditions will persist through the forecast period as a series of troughs move over the Pacific Northwest.
Both the sfc and upper low will shift south today, pushing the convergence axis slowly southwest.