Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
An upper level low centered near St. Louis will continue to sink south and cutoff from the main flow over the lower Mississippi River Valley today. Complex mid and upper pattern continues tonight into Thursday as the cut-off low wobbles near the mouth of the Ohio River. Tropical moisture will flow north ahead of this low from the eastern Gulf of Mexico into the central Appalachians and eventually southern and eastern Ohio.
(Wednesday through Thursday) Showers and thunderstorms will continue to work into the region today, as longwave troughing and our second cold front continue to work south. This trough is very progressive in nature, with rain chances beginning to diminish by the afternoon hours. Once this cold front finally clears the region, expect the rest of the short-term to be very pleasant.
/NEW/ /Overnight through Wednesday/ Regional radar imagery shows a broken line of thunderstorms just north of the Red River along a southward moving cold front. The cold front will continue southward through the early morning hours clearing our southern counties around midday. Cooler and drier air will filter in behind the front will precipitation chances ending. Breezy north winds and temperatures in the lower 80s can be expected through the afternoon. Tonight will be clear and relatively cool with overnight lows in the upper 50s and lower 60s areawide as high pressure builds into North Texas.
(Today through Tonight) A cold front has pushed eastward through Middle TN with latest obs showing it just east of the Plateau. In the wake of this front, temperatures will be cooler with forecast highs in the 70s to near 80. In the wake of the cold front and with cloudy skies, instability will be less with CAPE values forecast to be less than 1000 J/kg.
A closed upper low will move into the region and setup along the boundary and help support the boundary and consequently support more shower and storm activity by introducing more energy and vorticity into the equation. Still looking a little drier overall on Thursday as upper low continues to sag south across the Lower Mississippi River Valley, taking bulk of moisture south and west with it.
Quiet conditions begin the day today as weak surface ridging slides through the forecast area. Winds look to stay a touch elevated tonight as surface ridging pushes off to the southeast, allowing the surface pressure gradient to tighten a bit. Upper level ridging will be introduced to the Northern Plains aloft on Thursday as it gets squeezed between a vertically stacked low pressure system over parts of the Midwest and the Jet Stream across the international border.
Temperatures will be around 5 degrees warmer than yesterday with highs approaching the 80 degree mark. By Thursday, the majority of the area will likely break 80 with upper level ridging in place.
as a closed upper low pivots thru the Mid Mississippi Valley on the back side of the surface system. Closed upper level low will drop into the Lower Mississippi Valley over the next 24 hours. Skies will clear from west to east later this afternoon and tonight as high pressure and drier air build into the Western Great Lakes in the wake of the departing system. Midlevel ridging currently building over the rockies will progress eastward and settle over the midwest for the majority of the forecast period.
- A little cooler after Thursday but temperatures still at or above normal (in the 70s and 80s) through the weekend. Currently, high pressure at the surface and aloft remains situated over the Northern Plains. Afternoon humidities are expected to fall into the teens to mid 20s over portions of western ND each afternoon, with the lowest humidities being over the far southwest, and south central.
Not sure what is going to be more impressive the tropical cyclone wrapping into the mid level cyclone over the SE. CONUS or the strength of the anticyclone over southern High Plains/Rockies on Thursday. The downstream low will create an effective and prolonged block of the flow in the mid to lower latitudes of the CONUS which will keep the strong ridge pretty much in the vicinity of the Southern Rockies through the weekend.
Winds increase ahead of an approaching cold front, becoming breezy during the afternoon. Temperatures will be even warmer with some valleys reaching into the lower 90s, including the Treasure Valley. Upper ridge now over our CWA will shift eastward tonight as a Gulf of Alaska upper trough approaches the northwest coast. Wednesday will be the warmest day of the week under southwest flow aloft between the ridge and trough. Southwest surface winds will increase Wednesday in eastern Oregon, especially Harney County, as a Pacific cold front comes inland. Thursday will become sunny and about 8 degrees cooler than Wednesday, but still slightly above normal.
High pressure over Arizona will keep unseasonably warm temperatures and dry conditions in place through the end of the week. Clear skies and light winds across northern Arizona this evening as high pressure builds over the area. High pressure will continue to wobble around the southwest through pretty much the entire forecast period.
1111 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 Updated the forecast to primarily (a) adjust POPs for the rest of the night keeping the highest storm potential east and south, and (b) add at least patchy fog to the grids for Wednesday morning, especially in the central and east. Surface observations show a low pressure zone in northwest Oklahoma a little after noon, and short-term guidance depicts that low gradually migrating southeastward throughout the rest of the day. Further storm development is expected overnight in southern Oklahoma and potentially western north Texas as a cold front begins to impinge on a reservoir of elevated instability. Highs will sit in the low 80s.
By 11 PM local time, rainfall amounts anywhere from a third of an inch to just over an inch were reported from stations in the Lower Keys.
Synoptic Overview: An upper level low (centered over Iowa at 18Z) will progress southward into MO-IL (today). Meanwhile, a pronounced upper level ridge over the western CONUS will shift eastward across the Rockies (tonight) and High Plains (Wed). as the aforementioned ridge shifts eastward over the region. as the MSLP pattern re-orients in response to the development of a modest lee trough in Colorado. For the weekend, fairly benign weather is forecast with the ridge still over the area.
(Today and tonight) A cold front has cleared the area early this morning which will lead to cooler temperatures this afternoon. At the same time, an upper level ridge will slowly migrate eastward across the Rockies.
Upper level ridging builds across the region Wednesday, keeping conditions dry through mid-week. Currently have gusts between 20 to 30 MPH, with some areas across south-central South Dakota peaking into the lower 30s.
1155 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 (Tonight through Thursday night) A broken line of showers and storms will continue to move into the northern zones in response to a trof moving south into the region. Another round of isolated to scattered activity can be expected to begin late tomorrow morning to afternoon in response to a cold front dropping south across the NW Gulf Coast States. Postfrontal conditions will be more pleasant as a slightly cooler and drier airmass moves into the forecast area.
125 AM PDT Wed Sep 25 2024 Cooler high temperatures today and Thursday with breezy onshore winds.
Above average temperatures are expected for the deserts as a ridge of high pressure builds over the Four Corners region. The High Desert, Coachella Valley, and San Diego desert are close enough to the ridge for it to influence temperatures there.
/Issued 1237 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024/ /Overnight through Thursday/ Regional radar imagery shows a broken line of thunderstorms just north of the Red River along a southward moving cold front. The cold front will continue southward through the early morning hours clearing our southern counties around midday. Cooler and drier air will filter in behind the front will precipitation chances ending. Breezy north winds and temperatures in the lower 80s can be expected through the afternoon. Tonight will be clear and relatively cool with overnight lows in the upper 50s and lower 60s areawide as high pressure builds into North Texas.
202 AM EDT Wed Sep 25 2024 An amplifying upper level trough and slow moving frontal system will bring showery conditions to Central Pennsylvania through at least Wednesday, along with a few rumbles of thunder. Upper level pattern continues to amplify on Wednesday with the offshore upper ridge sharpening as split upper trough arrives into the western GLAKS to the mid Mississippi River Valley, with a southern cutoff low moving into southeast MO through Wednesday evening.
(Today through Thursday Night) A secondary cold front will move through SE Texas later this afternoon, and will move offshore early Thursday morning. Dew points behind the front are forecast to drop into the 50s to low 60s with lows tonight in the 60s inland and in the low 70s around the metro and along the coast. NW winds will continue to pull in cooler air Thursday into Thursday night with highs on Thursday reaching into the low to mid 80s area wide. Lows for Thursday will be a few degrees cooler than tonight's lows with most of the area in the 60s.
328 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 Today and Tonight: early morning water vapor imagery/RAP analysis showed the circulation around a rather amplified trough extending south across the ArkLaTex region from a closed low centered over the mid Mississippi valley. The cold front is expected to be south or just pushing south of our CWA by evening ending the rain chances. Dry weather is expected by midnight and cooler and drier air will filter into our CWA. This will lead to cooler than normal morning lows with a few locations bottoming out in the upper 50s in our north.
Synoptic scale upper ridging is developing across the entirety of the Great Plains right now â and looks to become the dominant feature driving the sensible weather for the many days to come for our area of Kansas.
1012 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 Updated the forecast to primarily (a) adjust POPs for the rest of the night keeping the highest storm potential east and south, and (b) add at least patchy fog to the grids for Wednesday morning, especially in the central and east. Surface observations show a low pressure zone in northwest Oklahoma a little after noon, and short-term guidance depicts that low gradually migrating southeastward throughout the rest of the day. Further storm development is expected overnight in southern Oklahoma and potentially western north Texas as a cold front begins to impinge on a reservoir of elevated instability. Highs will sit in the low 80s.
(Today through Thursday afternoon) The cold front that will usher in the return of a quiet and dry pattern is currently marching south through the Permian Basin early this morning. Behind this front, a cooler and drier continental airmass is filtering in to the southern Great Plains replacing the warmer, moist airmass. A cooler morning is expected tomorrow with upper 50s likely for many. Thursday afternoon should be nearly a carbon copy to this afternoon, though temperatures may be just a touch warmer.
Warm, dry, and quiet conditions are expected to prevail through the remainder of the week as high pressure builds in over the region. Ridging looks to persist across the region well into the weekend keeping any disturbances well to the north of the area.
Low level winds are already increasing between this system and the high pressure ridge along the eastern U.
H5 ridging continues to dominate the weather across Wyoming through the upcoming weekend.
A mid to upper level trough is expected to continue digging to south as it progresses eastwards. This will send a cold front through the region this evening providing enough lift for a low chance of showers and thunderstorms similar to what we seen yesterday. Highs Thursday will be a tad cooler with upper 80s to lower 90s across the CWA with lows in the upper 60s by Thursday night.
The continuation of this dry period falls as the deeper troughing extending through the MO/MS River Valley regions continues to scoot east to make room for amplified ridging currently over the Desert SW/Rockies. This pocket is also where you'll find the strong northerly jet aloft, a feature that will show itself from a bit of thin and high wispy cirrus above the low level cumulus the rest of this afternoon into early this evening. High pressure building at the surface combined with the downstream eastward propagation of the mid to upper level ridge will continue the dry spell onward.
(Today through Thursday) A pre-frontal trough is currently moving toward I-65 this morning with a cold front nearing the Alabama line from the northwest.
Later today, mid to upper level troughing moving through the area will transition to a cut-off low and stagnate just to the east of the area over IL. Ridging builds in behind the low and broadscale subsidence will lead to clear skies across the area.
Clear skies prevail across the area this evening with temperatures in the lower 50s. UPDATE Mostly clear skies prevail this evening temperatures in the lower 70s. Upper trough that brought last night's rain continues to push east across MN, splitting into a closed low over IA and a more northern branch over the arrowhead. Meanwhile, upper ridging continues to amplify over the Rockies, and will push into the Plains late tonight and into tomorrow. Between the ridge and the southward sinking IA low the pattern becomes rather blocky and doesn't change much through the rest of the work week. Beyond Thursday, ridging slowly breaks down as the rex block pattern over the central and eastern US wanes.
Temperatures peak in the low 70s. An existing upper low in the mid Mississippi Valley will combine with the remnant low of what will become Hurricane Helene.
626 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 (Today and tonight) A cold front has cleared the area early this morning which will lead to cooler temperatures this afternoon. At the same time, an upper level ridge will slowly migrate eastward across the Rockies.
The KBYX radar showed multiple pushes of showers moving across the Upper and Middle Keys while only a couple of sprinkles moved across the Lower Keys. Tropical storm force winds are possible anywhere across the forecast area, but the strongest winds will be seen closer to the Lower Keys and western marine zones. Helene will become embedded in upper level troughing over the southern U.
High pressure remains overhead today and tomorrow resulting in continued warm and dry conditions. Today's temperatures are forecast to be a few degrees warmer than yesterday with abundant sunshine.
626 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 (Wednesday through Thursday) Showers and thunderstorms will continue to work into the region today, as longwave troughing and our second cold front continue to work south. This trough is very progressive in nature, with rain chances beginning to diminish by the afternoon hours. Once this cold front finally clears the region, expect the rest of the short-term to be very pleasant.
843 AM MDT Wed Sep 25 2024 Hot and dry day in store under strong high pressure aloft. JKL The powerful upper ridge axis over the region will shift slowly east today to the high plains as a broad trough moves into the Pacific NW. This will create both warm air advection over our region and lee side surface troffing. Broad upper trough moves across the northern Rockies breaking down the upper ridge. Any cooling may be offset to some degree by mid level downslope flow, so dont expect much relief from the warmer temps. Highs will still reach the lower 80s west to upper 80s in the far southeast.
The focus this morning was upon the details of an approaching cold front.
Cooler temperatures are expected today, with warmer drier conditions returning by the end of the week and well into the weekend.
A large upper low will drop slowly south from the mid Mississippi Valley during the period, becoming more closed with time.
As winds decouple some by Thursday morning, lows should drop to the 60s or lower area-wide, with mainly the Hill Country seeing the lows in the mid/upper 50s.
343 AM MDT Wed Sep 25 2024 - Warmer temperatures and continued dry conditions are expected for our Wednesday.
628 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 (Today through Tonight) A cold front has pushed eastward through Middle TN with latest obs showing it just east of the Plateau. In the wake of this front, temperatures will be cooler with forecast highs in the 70s to near 80. In the wake of the cold front and with cloudy skies, instability will be less with CAPE values forecast to be less than 1000 J/kg.
653 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 (Today through Thursday) A pre-frontal trough is currently moving toward I-65 this morning with a cold front nearing the Alabama line from the northwest.
A weak upper level short wave and cold front will push through Thursday with temperatures about 5 to 8 degrees colder than Wednesday but still well above seasonal normals. Thursday the 20 to 30 mph gusts will mainly be in the Upper Snake River Plain in the Arco Desert region behind the cold front.
638 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 (Today through Thursday Night) Still watching a cold front to our north which hasn't moved very much over the last day or so. Eventually, the broader scale upper trough will amplify further and it should bring the boundary through the region. Dry and a very slightly cooler air will begin to filter into the region by Thursday. Until the front slides through today temperatures will continue to remain on the warmer/humid side.
High pressure remains the main weather story for the rest of the week. The high is centered over the Four Corners region early this morning.
841 AM EDT Wed Sep 25 2024 -Tropical Cyclone Helene will lift north into the eastern Gulf of Mexico today through Thursday and produce heavy rain, strong winds and possible tornadoes. Low level shear/helicity will begin to increase and present a tropical cyclone tornado threat within rainbands this evening into tonight.
Issued by National Weather Service Billings MT 301 AM MDT Wed Sep 25 2024 KEY MESSAGES: - Much warmer than normal temperatures continue through the weekend, although slightly cooler than near record levels today. WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: An upper ridge will move east into the Northern Plains today. The first of these waves will slide through on Thursday, coming through dry with gusty northwest winds behind a cold front.
A cold front is still on track to push across the region this evening and over night.
637 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 (Today) Weak cold front continues to drift eastward closer to NW AL this early Wed morning, as an upper low/trough axis drops into the Midwest region. Scattered to perhaps numerous showers/few tstms are expected for areas S/E of the front going more into the daytime hrs, as the upper low drops more into the Mid South area.
655 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 (Today through Thursday Night) A secondary cold front will move through SE Texas later this afternoon, and will move offshore early Thursday morning. Dew points behind the front are forecast to drop into the 50s to low 60s with lows tonight in the 60s inland and in the low 70s around the metro and along the coast. NW winds will continue to pull in cooler air Thursday into Thursday night with highs on Thursday reaching into the low to mid 80s area wide. Lows for Thursday will be a few degrees cooler than tonight's lows with most of the area in the 60s.
637 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 Today and Tonight: early morning water vapor imagery/RAP analysis showed the circulation around a rather amplified trough extending south across the ArkLaTex region from a closed low centered over the mid Mississippi valley. The cold front is expected to be south or just pushing south of our CWA by evening ending the rain chances. Dry weather is expected by midnight and cooler and drier air will filter into our CWA. This will lead to cooler than normal morning lows with a few locations bottoming out in the upper 50s in our north.
622 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 (Today through Thursday afternoon) The cold front that will usher in the return of a quiet and dry pattern is currently marching south through the Permian Basin early this morning. Behind this front, a cooler and drier continental airmass is filtering in to the southern Great Plains replacing the warmer, moist airmass. A cooler morning is expected tomorrow with upper 50s likely for many. Thursday afternoon should be nearly a carbon copy to this afternoon, though temperatures may be just a touch warmer.
1228 PM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 (Today through Thursday afternoon) The cold front that will usher in the return of a quiet and dry pattern is currently marching south through the Permian Basin early this morning. Behind this front, a cooler and drier continental airmass is filtering in to the southern Great Plains replacing the warmer, moist airmass. A cooler morning is expected tomorrow with upper 50s likely for many. Thursday afternoon should be nearly a carbon copy to this afternoon, though temperatures may be just a touch warmer.
Cooler than normal temperatures are expected to continue through the weekend for coast and valleys as a trough lingers along the West Coast.
/26/ (Wednesday through Thursday) Showers and thunderstorms will continue to work into the region today, as longwave troughing and our second cold front continue to work south. This trough is very progressive in nature, with rain chances beginning to diminish by the afternoon hours. Once this cold front finally clears the region, expect the rest of the short-term to be very pleasant.
High pressure over Arizona will keep unseasonably warm temperatures and dry conditions will continue through the weekend. Moisture does increase some through the day, but with high pressure still largely in control, the only noticeable change will be some increase cloud cover over the higher terrain this afternoon.
Strong northerly flow aloft will drift east tonight with upper level ridging building into the area into Thursday.
However, lingering cooler air aloft/moisture will allow for some cu development through mid-afternoon. as a closed upper low pivots thru the Mid Mississippi Valley on the back side of the surface system. Closed upper level low will drop into the Lower Mississippi Valley over the next 24 hours. Skies will clear from west to east later this afternoon and tonight as high pressure and drier air build into the Western Great Lakes in the wake of the departing system. Midlevel ridging currently building over the rockies will progress eastward and settle over the midwest for the majority of the forecast period.
- Highs through SUN will mainly stay in the low to mid 80s. - A cold front dipping into the region MON night may temporarily drop temps TUES (upper 60s to low 70s). Quiet weather will finish out the day today as high pressure makes itself comfortable across the broad plains and much of the central U. A few cirrus clouds may ride the northerly jet aloft this evening as an amplified ridge stretching up into western Canada crosses over into the Central and Great Plains. General subsidence (mid and upper level sinking), typically found underneath the ridge, will dampen any precipitation chance.
(Rest of Today) Todays weather will continue to be influenced by a stalled cold front draped over the area.
1230 PM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 (Today through Tonight) A cold front has pushed eastward through Middle TN with latest obs showing it just east of the Plateau. In the wake of this front, temperatures will be cooler with forecast highs in the 70s to near 80. In the wake of the cold front and with cloudy skies, instability will be less with CAPE values forecast to be less than 1000 J/kg.
1214 PM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 (Rest of Today) Todays weather will continue to be influenced by a stalled cold front draped over the area.