Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1242 PM CDT Sun May 12 2024 A mostly dry and mild day is on tap for the Mid-South with highs in the lower 80s.
Also delayed mention of heavy rain for much of the Flood Watch area until this afternoon with the progged increase in H850 convergence along an inverted trough that is expected to develop from N TX SE into Deep E TX to the Lower Sabine Valley. This boundary will move north today as a warm front, which will help set the stage for more widespread severe weather tomorrow, when the boundary reverses course as a cold front.
High pressure remains over the region today which will result in another warm and dry afternoon.
1140 AM MDT Sun May 12 2024 - Trending warmer through Monday, but remaining unsettled with daily chances for showers and storms.
High pressure at the surface and aloft making for a beautiful Sunday across eastern KY. Highs Monday likely around warm to about 5 degrees warmer than today. Plains low pressure and associated trough are poised to enter the lower Ohio and Tennessee valley areas at the start of the period. This system manages to get through our area during the first 48 hours of the extended, weakening and opening up into a trough as it tracks slowly eastward.
Northwest flow on the back side of a mid/upper low centered over northwest Ontario is in place currently with surface ridging building south behind the cold front (now south of our forecast area in SD/central MN). This pattern will tend to support temperatures varying from the 60s to 70s each day as ridging/troughing passes which is within a standard deviation of climate averages (basically seasonal).
otherwise it is currently dry as temps warm thru the 60s and into the lower 70s. The cold front itself is also not well-defined. Also, by late Monday night, snow levels fall to near 9kft so the highest peaks of the Crazy and Beartooth-Absaroka Mountains will pick up some wet snowfall. This will continue to be watched, but it appears we won't see any water issues in the foreseeable future, especially considering the lower freezing levels arriving tomorrow night. Temperatures will remain above normal thru tomorrow before transitioning to a few cooler days.
High pressure at the surface and aloft making for a beautiful Sunday across eastern KY. Highs Monday likely around warm to about 5 degrees warmer than today.
Discussion: The overnight period will be quiet with ridging and high pressure over the region. High clouds begin to increase overnight as a trough moves into the Mississippi Valley. Shower activity will be light and spotty with the trough and surface system remaining well to the west through Monday afternoon.
Today is expected to be a few degrees warmer than yesterday, especially for inland areas.
115 PM CDT Sun May 12 2024 (Today and tonight) Short range models indicate scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms developing towards sunrise, as an upper low over Colorado moves east into Kansas this evening, bringing lift to the region.
257 PM EDT Sun May 12 2024 Upper level troughing will exit Pennsylvania tonight, with fair weather expected for most of tonight and Monday.
Highs today will reach the low to mid 80s across the lower elevations, which is 10-15 degrees above normal.
Luckily the front that has sagged into extreme South Florida and portions of the Keys has brought a few degree dew point drop, and dew points are steadily in the lower 70s. A mean layer ridge currently centered over the Yucatan Peninsula will gradually move eastward over the next few days. This ridge will park itself over Cuba for a few days, which will enable temperatures along the island chain to continue to hit 90 degrees daily, if not a few degrees higher, for a majority of the work week. rain and wind), high pressure extending across the Eastern Seaboard will maintain moderate to occasionally fresh breezes through mid week.
(Today and tonight) Short range models indicate scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms developing towards sunrise, as an upper low over Colorado moves east into Kansas this evening, bringing lift to the region. (Monday night through next Sunday) Expect mainly a dry and warmer forecast for early this week as 500 MB heights increase and our area is in the surface warm sector.
1209 PM CDT Sun May 12 2024 (Today through Monday) Upper ridging is beginning to set up over the eastern gulf and western Atlantic this morning. The upper trough out west is now starting to become oriented N-S as the upper ridge builds into the NW CONUS. The upper trough becomes progressive as this short wave exits the base of its trough Monday. The instability is not in place yet but will be as the synoptic warm front pulls through the area later today providing deep moisture and a strong ThetaE gradient that should stall from Mobile to the NW. But the messy conditions today through Monday before the main system moves in will also need to be watched as one or two storms could become rogue along and after the warm front moves through today.
1218 PM CDT Sun May 12 2024 - Another dry day today with highs reaching into the low 80s.
207 PM EDT Sun May 12 2024 As low pressures approach from the west, moisture increases to start the week and rain returns to our area Monday afternoon and evening.
102 PM CDT Sun May 12 2024 - Warm today! Highs could top out in the mid 80s in warmer valley locations. * TODAY/SUNDAY: very warm today, cooler (seasonable) Monday. Thus, GFS and NAM overshooting sfc Td (GFS into the low 60s!) and SBCAPEs are overdone. Deep mixing upwards of 700 mb will work to bring that warmer air to the sfc. It will cool back to the early May normals Monday with the passage of the cold front.
(This afternoon through Monday Night) High pressure is in place over the region and that is going to bring great weather for this Mother's Day. Highs this afternoon are on track for most of the area to make it to around 80 but it will stay a bit cooler over the Plateau.
1108 AM EDT Sun May 12 2024 High pressure provides dry weather into the start of the new work week amid a warming trend.
1217 PM CDT Sun May 12 2024 (Today through Monday) Dry conditions will continue through early overnight hours tonight due to continued building of ridging influences surface and aloft. Afternoon high temperatures today will be around or slightly warmer than seasonal normal values ranging upper 70s to lower 80s, mid 70s Cumberland Plateau Region.
A cold front sits to our northwest and stretches from Duluth to Rochester to Sioux Falls South Dakota then west southwestward into northeast Colorado. The cold front to our northwest is forecast to move into northern Iowa by 12 UTC on Monday.
720 PM EDT Sun May 12 2024 High pressure bringing dry weather to the region through Monday afternoon will move off the atlantic coast by Monday evening allowing moisture to return in advance of a complex storm system exiting the central plains.
742 PM EDT Sun May 12 2024 Southerly flow will bring dry and much warmer conditions on Monday as temperatures warm about 10 degrees above normal.
812 PM EDT Sun May 12 2024 High pressure moves offshore on Monday and increasing moisture supports an unsettled week with chances for showers and thunderstorms for much of the week.
746 PM EDT Sun May 12 2024 Upper level troughing will exit Pennsylvania tonight, with fair weather expected for most of tonight and Monday.
These warm temps will not reside long as a cold front continues to make its way from the NW to the SE across Minnesota this afternoon. The start of the work week will be beautiful thanks to elongated ridging to our west with low pressure across the mid-Mississippi River Valley. Northeasterly flow will help keep temperatures in the low-70s with mostly clear skies and potential some patchy remnants of wild fire smoke.
920 PM EDT Sun May 12 2024 High pressure returns tonight into Monday.
Isolated shower and thunderstorm coverage remains in the forecast with 10-20% chances along the high terrain for Monday afternoon.
611 PM MDT Sun May 12 2024 - Drier/warmer Monday, with scattered mountain showers/storms and more isolated coverage for lower elevations.
However, the lower levels of the atmosphere will still take a bit longer than that to moisten up enough for any precipitation aloft to reach the ground until closer to daybreak on Monday. Nudged up lows a tad into the lower 60s near and west of the I-65 corridor and into the 55 to 60 degree range elsewhere.
This was aided by some periods of filtered sunshine that allowed temperatures to warm into the low to mid 70s in spots, which is essentially convective temperatures for today. Cold mid level temps associated with cut off low pressure area in NW KS have aided in steepening lapse rates and at least a few hundred joules of CAPE to develop, but effective shear is very weak. Elsewhere, rain-free areas will warm into at least the low to mid 70s amidst brzy N-NE winds during the aftn.
Otherwise, it will be drier and much warmer this week with temperatures more like early summer. * THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT: Flat cumulus developing underneath upper ridge this afternoon with 12Z KREV sounding showing things capped.
622 PM CDT Sun May 12 2024 (This afternoon through Monday Night) High pressure is in place over the region and that is going to bring great weather for this Mother's Day. Highs this afternoon are on track for most of the area to make it to around 80 but it will stay a bit cooler over the Plateau.
723 PM EDT Sun May 12 2024 Southerly flow will bring dry and much warmer conditions on Monday as temperatures warm about 10 degrees above normal.
These clouds will thicken up with time after midnight, but not before valleys make a quick drop off through the 50s, with mid to upper 40s still looking on target for the overnight lows within our normally cooler spots. High pressure at the surface and aloft making for a beautiful Sunday across eastern KY. Highs Monday likely around warm to about 5 degrees warmer than today.
(The rest of tonight) Slow moving , positively tilted upper low continues to progress eastward into the Plains state this evening while moisture lifting northeastward on the nose of a subtropical jet streams into eastern Oklahoma. Bowlan (Monday through Sunday) As low lifts into Kansas late tonight into Monday, additional showers/thunderstorms will develop ahead of cold front, which is forecast to move into northeast Oklahoma around mid day. Scattered showers with a few embedded thunderstorms will remain possible Monday night as main upper level trough axis swings through overnight.
Meanwhile, zonal flow is in place through the mid and upper levels while a west to east lower level ridge stretches across our broader area. However, a couple of important subsidence inversion and associated drier layers, the lowest of which is based around 950 mb, has squashed shower development across the broader area. A weak ridge stretching southeastward from the eastern United States, along with dissipating day time heating, will result in winds becoming more uniformly east to southeast and strengthening slightly.
506 PM MDT Sun May 12 2024 - Trending warmer through Monday, but remaining unsettled with daily chances for showers and storms through mid-week.
654 PM EDT Sun May 12 2024 High pressure provides dry weather into the start of the new work week amid a warming trend.
647 PM CDT Sun May 12 2024 (The rest of this afternoon through tonight) Upper low moving east of the Four Corners Region this afternoon with subtropical jet lifting northeast through Texas into Oklahoma. (Monday through Sunday) As low lifts into Kansas late tonight into Monday, additional showers/thunderstorms will develop ahead of cold front, which is forecast to move into northeast Oklahoma around mid day. Scattered showers with a few embedded thunderstorms will remain possible Monday night as main upper level trough axis swings through overnight.
A cold front was draped from low pressure west of James Bay into western Lake Superior, western Upper Michigan, northwest Wisconsin and central and southwestern Minnesota. This activity is expected to move south and east of the region by about 6PM as the cold front passes through. Dry and cooler conditions will move in for Monday and Tuesday with highs within a few degrees of normal.
157 AM EDT Mon May 13 2024 High pressure moves offshore on Monday and increasing moisture supports an unsettled week with chances for showers and thunderstorms for much of the week.
342 AM EDT Mon May 13 2024 High pressure and dry air will move off to the east today.
(Today through Tuesday afternoon) An upper level low in the Great Plains will push a weak cold front into the area today.
A low pressure system slowly moving toward the has resulted in a few showers popping up nearby this afternoon. The low will continue to move through the region Monday before moving out on Tuesday. In the warm sector ahead of the low on Monday afternoon/evening, we could see a few strong to severe thunderstorms over the southern CWA as models are now showing SBCAPE values up to 1,000-1,500 J/kg and 0-6km shear of 30-40 kts.
The unsettled weather continues with a warm front moving through on Monday, followed by a cold front Tuesday bringing chances for thunderstorms. After the short dry-period, clouds will overspread the region Monday morning ahead of a warm front that brings the next round of unsettled weather.
Temperatures as of 4 AM are still in the lower 80s with dew points in the lower to mid 70s. Winds have begun clocking around to the east and southeast as a broad surface anticyclone is settling along the Eastern Seaboard. The surface anticyclone will continue to slowly shift further east and move out across the western North Atlantic. This will impinge of the anticyclone and lead to brief uptick in winds overnight into Tuesday morning.
A brief ridge of high pressure will build over the region behind an upper low pulling away across the Four Corners. On Monday and Tuesday there will be a slight chance for showers and thunderstorms along the southern Sierra, and possibly the mountains of central Nevada as a weak area of low pressure moves into southern California. High pressure will move over the region through Monday as a weak cutoff low moves east of the area. This will allow for even warmer temperatures Monday and likely give us the warmest temperatures so far this year with Las Vegas reaching the mid 90s. On Tuesday, there will be a weak closed low moving into southern California that will drop temperatures slightly Tuesday and bring some additional moisture to the region.
Otherwise, the main impact from these systems are going to be an increase in breezy conditions across the lower elevations and through the Cascade gaps. By Tuesday morning, upper level ridging in the northeast Pacific will build into the PacNW, providing another round of warming temperatures and dry conditions through the mid-week.
330 AM EDT Mon May 13 2024 High pressure will gradually shift off the Southeast coast today. Low pressure will move in from the west tonight and Tuesday.
(Today and tonight) A weak upper low will drift towards the central CA coast while upstream ridging dominates the northeast Pacific.
The ridge of high pressure that has brought us above normal temperatures and dry conditions, will begin to flatten through the day today. Breezy west to northwest winds will continue, though the higher gusts of 30 mph, will be more isolated in nature.
110 AM EDT Mon May 13 2024 High pressure will move off the coast by Monday evening allowing moisture to return in advance of a complex storm system exiting the Central Plains.
Full sun the rest of day will allow temperatures to rise to highs ranging from the lower 80s in the Big Country.
101 AM EDT Mon May 13 2024 Southerly flow will bring dry and much warmer conditions on Monday as temperatures warm about 10 degrees above normal.
Otherwise, this week will feature well above average temperatures and dry conditions before cooler weather and increased shower chances return this weekend.
Convection will end from west-to-east Monday night into Tuesday morning as the mid-level trof/sfc frontal system push ewd across the forecast area.
1200 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024 (The rest of tonight) Slow moving , positively tilted upper low continues to progress eastward into the Plains state this evening while moisture lifting northeastward on the nose of a subtropical jet streams into eastern Oklahoma.
(Today through Tuesday) The diffuse surface boundary that has lingered will give way to a small area of high pressure building off the Florida coast over the Atlantic.
These clouds will thicken up with time after midnight, but not before valleys make a quick drop off through the 50s, with mid to upper 40s still looking on target for the overnight lows within our normally cooler spots.
Once the trough begins to move east, thunderstorms will expand in coverage along the boundary into the afternoon and evening hours.
210 AM EDT Mon May 13 2024 High pressure will gradually shift off the Southeast coast today. Low pressure will move in from the west tonight and Tuesday.
- Ridging brings warmer conditions for the latter half of the week, but daily showers will remain a threat for higher elevations.
(This afternoon through Monday Night) High pressure is in place over the region and that is going to bring great weather for this Mother's Day. Highs this afternoon are on track for most of the area to make it to around 80 but it will stay a bit cooler over the Plateau. On Monday an upper level trough will be tracking east over the Plains and this will push a warm front into our area Monday morning into the afternoon. The rain chances and cloud cover will keep things a little bit cooler with highs in the mid 70s. Winds ahead of the trough will be somewhat breezy with gusts 20-25 mph in the afternoon and evening.
Short lived ridging will shift overhead allowing for the return of light southerly flow and temperatures returning to near normal for the middle part of the work week.
This low to our north will bring a cold front through the area with it exiting into the Dakotas by around 18Z today. Temperatures will be warm today in the high 70s to low 80s as ridging moves off to the east. Tuesday will be cooler in the 60s with the passage of the cold front and troughing moving in. Southeast Montana will be on the backside of the low with northwest winds wrapping Pacific moisture into the area.
Slow moving upper trough will support increasing LSA with mid level moisture adv across the region today. As the upper trough shifts east overnight, pos theta-e adv will support shower chances across the FA, esp the NW third closest to the best LSA.
Upper low is centered over CO with weak cool front/sfc trof draped across eastern into south central SD. Not much cold air is filtering in behind the front with temperatures in the region in the low to mid 70s. Conditions should clear out later tonight as a weak upper ridge builds into the region. Mean troughing persists into midweek with continued chances for showers and perhaps a few afternoon storms each day.
With generally cloudy skies and increasing chances for showers, high temperatures to start the work week will be on the cooler side, warming only into the lower 70s.
132 AM EDT Mon May 13 2024 High pressure will move off to the east tonight and Monday.
The first area is from Custer County east across the lower and upper snake Plain into the upper Snake highlands. Although there are some indications that the highs around Challis could overachieve somewhat.
1101 PM MDT Sun May 12 2024 - An unsettled weather pattern sets up thanks to weak ridging and northwest flow, but temperatures remain above normal through Tuesday.
As the high pressure moves further over the Atlantic the flow becomes more S/SE and winds increase as the gradient tightens.
(Today and tonight) Drier and warmer conditions can be expected today despite a cold front moving through the area. This cold front was currently moving southward across the region which will scour out low level moisture and low stratus. Despite the cold front, temperatures will warm today closer to seasonal averages under mostly clear skies with increased thickness values.
Warm front will continue to push our direction on Tuesday, keeping scattered showers and thunderstorms in the forecast throughout much of the day. Temps will be a bit on the cooler side today, with highs likely in the mid 70s or lower. Will get some warming tomorrow as the warm front lifts northward, allowing highs to climb back to the mid to upper 70s.
Have updated forecast to introduce a 15% chance of showers over the lower Treasure Valley and Owyhee mtns for early Monday morning. The trough axis and weak cold front will cross our area Monday afternoon. Temperatures will be a few degrees cooler, but still nearly 10 degrees above normal.
Churning upper level trough/low was trekking slowly east across the southern plains early this morning. Spiraling bands rotating counterclockwise around the trough were interacting with a west-east running cold front that was easing southward across the local area (extending from the MN/IA border into northeast WI at early morning). Track of the upper level trough, coupled with where the moisture transport/instability pool is progged to layout, suggests the bulk of the continued rain chances will hold across IA and northern IL, but northern fringes could spread into farther southern WI. Southwest winds will continue to transition to northwest winds overnight as a cold front moves through the region.
Temperatures in the low to mid 30s are possible. RH values could fall into the lower 20 percent range once more in some areas; however, winds will be relatively light, generally in the range of 7 to 12 mph.
As such, chances for precipitation will arrive in the northwestern portions of the state in the early morning hours, slowly spreading east throughout the rest of the morning as the trough continues moving east. This may bring continued showers along the northern periphery of the low, keeping chances for rain across the area in the 40 to 70% range through the day Tuesday. The highest chances look to be in the southwest and central areas of the state, with chances decreasing to around 20% in the northwest.
Weak upper level trough moving through the area today.
Brief ridging propagating across the region today will lead to minimal impacts. RH values could fall into the lower 20 percent range once more in some areas; however, winds will be relatively light, generally in the range of 7 to 12 mph.
(Today through Tuesday) The main concerns in the short term will be the heat and the low probability for strong to severe thunderstorms today. In addition, the much warmer temperatures and high humidity will allow heat index values to up 114 degrees, especially along and east of the I-69C/US 281 corridor, for a few hours this afternoon. A dryline is expected to push into the far western counties this afternoon which may keep the heat indices slightly lower, 105 to 110, with highs to reach into the lower 100's. High temperatures on Tuesday will range from the lower 80s at the beaches, low to mid 90s across the Rio Grande Valley and the upper 90s to around 100 degrees across the Rio Grande Plains.
445 AM MDT Mon May 13 2024 - Trending warmer through Monday, but remaining unsettled with daily chances for showers and storms through mid-week.
636 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024 (Today through Tuesday) The main concerns in the short term will be the heat and the low probability for strong to severe thunderstorms today. In addition, the much warmer temperatures and high humidity will allow heat index values to up 114 degrees, especially along and east of the I-69C/US 281 corridor, for a few hours this afternoon. A dryline is expected to push into the far western counties this afternoon which may keep the heat indices slightly lower, 105 to 110, with highs to reach into the lower 100's. High temperatures on Tuesday will range from the lower 80s at the beaches, low to mid 90s across the Rio Grande Valley and the upper 90s to around 100 degrees across the Rio Grande Plains.
444 AM MDT Mon May 13 2024 - Trending warmer through Monday, but remaining unsettled with daily chances for showers and storms through mid-week.