Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Temperatures this morning are cool for this time of year with most locations in western ND in the low 40s, and those in central ND in the mid 40s. Due to this, went with a blend that is slightly cooler than NBM. Lows tonight are expected to be mostly in the low to mid 40s, with some upper 30 degree readings possible in said cold spots in the southwest.
Some changes were made to the forecast to adjust for the lower dew points and relatively cooler temperatures.
Highs today will be in the low 90s with overnight lows in the mid 70s.
(This evening through Friday) In response to an upper low across southwestern Ontario and the subsequent troughing regime moving through the Great Lakes, the upper level ridge overhead is expected to flatten out and weaken along its eastern periphery.
(Tonight through Friday night) Hot conditions are seen this afternoon as the subtropical ridge continues to build into South Central Texas over the next day or two. Mostly clear skies and warm overnight lows from the low 70s to around 80 degrees are expected tonight, with another hot day tomorrow; albeit, temperatures may be a degree or two "cooler" than those seen today. There is a chance some of the most western counties in the advisory may stay just below criteria tomorrow due to the highest moisture expected in the east, but values remain close enough to continue the product as is.
Latest HRRR shows smoke decreasing before noon in the Upper Treasure Valley but worsening in the Lower Treasure Valley.
Will see slightly warmer temperatures tomorrow with many low elevations highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s so slightly above normal once again.
While the winds are on the lower end of this category, the storm has still remained fairly organized, which can be seen in the MSLP contours. Remnants of Debby tracking to the east of the Appalachians will bring increased chances for showers, thunderstorms, cloud cover and markedly cooler high temperatures, especially for far northeastern TN, southwest VA, and southwest NC. Phasing with the trough, being pulled north, leading to lower heights, will suppress highs for the northern and eastern parts of the CWA.
Current thinking is the afternoon temperatures, especially across the northern half of the area, should be cooler than previously forecast, and as such, forecast highs have been adjusted downward using influence from the short-term blended consensus.
(This afternoon through Friday) While Tropical Storm Debby swirls over the Carolinas, a much drier and warmer forecast is in place across Central Alabama. This has resulted in an overcast low-level cloud deck across the western portions of the area which has been slow to mix apart, but expect the clouds to scatter through the afternoon allowing temperatures to warm into the lower to mid 90s.
As Debby continues to make its way up the Eastern Seaboard, another trof approaches the Great Lakes. Rising heights in between the two have allowed today's temperatures to climb back up into the lower to mid 80s this afternoon.
306 PM CDT Thu Aug 8 2024 - Cooler and pleasant through the weekend, with highs in the upper 60s to mid 70s and lows in the upper 40s and 50s. On Friday, low pressure to our north sinks further south into northern Lake Superior.
- Much cooler temperatures through Friday with multiple rounds of scattered showers and thunderstorms expected. The highest coverage of precipitation will be during the overnight hours. Surface analysis showing the cold front that went through us late last night has pushed south and west. SLightly warmer temperatures.
(This evening through Friday night) Tropical Storm Debby still in the vicinity of Charlotte this afternoon, with upper ridging over New Mexico. That ridging extends southeastward into the northwest Gulf of Mexico. The main impact with that will be to allow the ridging to the west to expand eastward slightly.
1215 PM CDT Thu Aug 8 2024 (Today through Friday) The subtropical ridge axis now runs NW-SE into much of TX with Central Texas now close to the center of this axis. It will also remain over this area Friday when a backdoor cold front settles over North-Central TX. A more easterly surface wind direction could end up lowering afternoon RH values to ease some of the highest heat index values, but pooling of elevated dew points are also projected south of the front, so we'll stand pat on the higher heat index values for one more day. The Heat Advisory was extended into early Friday evening for the same counties as before, noting that similar values to the west fail to meet the higher criteria threshold for those counties.
1106 AM MDT Thu Aug 8 2024 - Cooler temperatures and isolated showers expected today behind a cold front, especially east of the Divide.
Periods of heavy rainfall is expected Friday into Friday night as the remnants of Debby move through the area and interact with a cold front.
An easterly pressure gradient will continue to strengthen over the Northern Rockies this evening, as a large low pressure system moves southeast over the Dakotas.
It is possible stratocumulus may develop over eastern portions of the area helping to limit insolation some as well Friday, but not expecting as much cloud coverage as was observed today, so dry bulb temperatures will likely be a few degrees warmer.
Mid- to upper-level ridging will persist across South Texas during the short-term forecast period, resulting in continued dry and hot conditions. Inland areas can expect afternoon highs today ranging from 100-107 degF, with temperatures along the coast reaching the low to mid-90s. Overnight, little relief is anticipated, as temperatures are expected to remain in the mid to upper 70s inland, with coastal areas struggling to drop below the low 80s.
Friday sees some modest upper ridging move in from the west turning our flow pattern anti-cyclonic with low-level winds becoming more southeasterly.
306 PM CDT Thu Aug 8 2024 Cooler and pleasant through the weekend, with highs in the upper 60s to mid 70s and lows in the upper 40s and 50s. On Friday, low pressure to our north sinks further south into northern Lake Superior.
(This evening through Friday night) As of this afternoon, latest radar and satellite imagery were showing the expected cold frontal boundary slowly make it way across the Panhandles. With it are not only light showers, but much cooler temperatures as latest mesonets reports are seeing at least 10 degree difference. Otherwise, look for much cooler temperatures to follow behind the front with afternoon highs for tomorrow closer to 70s and 80s.
The result has been a relatively pleasant day, compared to what the rest of our August has been, with temperatures only in the low to mid 80s midday.
Water vapor imagery highlights a TUTT cell to the northeast of the Bahamas, and Tropical Storm Debby entangled with an upper low near the Appalachians. The inferred surface streamlines from the cumulus over Cuba suggest the low-level ridge axis reaches west to near the Yucatan Channel. Temperatures reached the lower 90s in many spots. With the departure of Debby, the low level ridge axis will return to its rightful place across Florida.
225 PM EDT Thu Aug 8 2024 A weakening Tropical Cyclone Debby will gradually track northward from the Charlotte area tonight and the considerable rainfall along and east of Interstate 77 will come to an end. The remnants of Debby are expected to move faster to the north and out of our area on Friday with drier high pressure spreading over the region in its wake through the weekend.
(This afternoon through Friday) The upper-level ridge is slowly moving out of our region and a troughing pattern will take influence. The deepening of the trough and onshore flow will help return the marine layer tonight bringing low clouds along the coast and will extend further into the valleys. This will allow for temperatures to trend a bit cooler tonight into Friday.
1229 PM CDT Thu Aug 8 2024 (Today and tonight) The upper ridge will remain mostly overhead today with continued hot temperatures. Additional storms may develop along the higher terrain of New Mexico and move east southeast with the weak steering flow aloft.
323 PM EDT Thu Aug 8 2024 Heavy rainfall expected Friday into Friday evening as the remnants of Debby move through the area and interact with a cold front.
1232 PM CDT Thu Aug 8 2024 - Cooler than average temperatures continue into the weekend. Upper low continues to move southward this morning with little in the way of shower activity thus far. UPDATE Low pressure is starting to move down from Canada this morning, with isolated showers moving across the International Border this hour. Otherwise, temperatures this morning are in the low to mid 40s across the area. Overall flow aloft remains out of the northwest as an upper level trough shifts through Ontario. Highs today reach into the low to mid 60s, with morning lows in the mid 40s to lower 50s.
Pressure increases have been observed on surface obs since last night as a 1030 mb ridge centered near the Montana/Saskatchewan border continues to build southward into the region. A cooler and drier air mass is accompanying the ridge, with dew points expected to drop from the mid/upper 60s today, into the low 50s and upper 40s by Friday morning. The big story will be the cool temperatures that will occur with the ridge and cloud cover in place. Forecast highs tomorrow range from the low 70s in north-central KS to the mid 70s in east-central KS.
But, we should see some changes at the lower levels as a weak backdoor front moves in overnight.
A big change is coming on Friday as a dry frontal passage occurs as the remnants of Debby drag cooler and drier air southward of the backside of the low.
1006 AM CDT Thu Aug 8 2024 - Cooler than average temperatures continue into the weekend. Upper low continues to move southward this morning with little in the way of shower activity thus far. UPDATE Low pressure is starting to move down from Canada this morning, with isolated showers moving across the International Border this hour. Otherwise, temperatures this morning are in the low to mid 40s across the area. Overall flow aloft remains out of the northwest as an upper level trough shifts through Ontario. Highs today reach into the low to mid 60s, with morning lows in the mid 40s to lower 50s.
The upper level low has moved southward into Mexico over the Gulf of California and two weak high pressure systems with one to the North of the area currently centered over the Arizona/New Mexico border and the other to the east that is currently over the New Mexico/Texas border.
Today will be overcast all day across the area while the area sits under WNW flow aloft between the top the upper ridge and the broad low located along the Canada/Wisconsin border. With lingering cloud cover and CAA moving in behind yesterday's cold front, temperatures will be below normal with highs in the 60s to lower 70s. While the entire area has up to 50% chance of rain and sub-severe storms during the morning and afternoon, high pressure near the surface will nudge south over Nebraska into Northern Kansas and decrease PoPs to a slight chance for those north of US-40 during the afternoon. Upper-level flow will remain zonal over the weekend, which will keep us cooler than normal, but we will see a warming trend.
1159 AM EDT Thu Aug 8 2024 - Much cooler and lower humidity this weekend Temperatures at midday have climbed to the lower and middle 70s amid a diurnal cu field per visible satellite loop and surface obs. These temperatures were slightly above the gridded forecast and along with mixing down from 4-5K feet lend good confidence that afternoon highs will meet or exceed projected near seasonable numbers in the lower to middle 80s. Regardless, it will be warmer than yesterday given modest plume of warmer lower tropospheric air traversing the northern periphery of remnant ridge, coupled with relative deep mixing over our area.
DS/12 (Now through Friday) A northwesterly to northerly flow pattern aloft will persist across our forecast through Friday as the forecast area remains positioned between a deepening upper troughing to our east (which will finally lift remnants of Tropical Storm Debby up the east coast) and upper level ridging centered over Texas but gradually building more into the Lower Mississippi Valley region on Friday. A weak surface front/trough that pushed into the southeast CONUS today will push a little further south into our area on Friday as remnants of Debby lift up the east coast, but stalls over our area or just offshore on Friday.
1250 PM CDT Thu Aug 8 2024 Updated at 1227 PM CDT Thu Aug 8 2024 - Cold front arrives in the north today. But one more hot day in most areas before the cooler air filters in. This is not the significantly cooler air yet, but is likely enough to take the edge off of the temperatures in the north today. The cooler air will arrive this evening and lows should be in the 60s across the northwestern third of the area.
Things are still on track for north winds to kick in tomorrow, ushering in cooler and drier air for a fabulous comfortable weekend by August standards. A big change is coming on Friday as a dry frontal passage occurs as the remnants of Debby drag cooler and drier air southward of the backside of the low.
Temperatures will only drop into the lower to mid 80s tonight, and with dew points in the upper 70s and gentle breezes, a sticky night is on tap for the Florida Keys. High pressure over the western North Atlantic and slow-moving Debby over the Carolinas will maintain gentle southwest breezes across the Keys coastal waters tonight.
1043 PM EDT Thu Aug 8 2024 A weakening Tropical Cyclone Debby will gradually track northward from the Charlotte area tonight and the considerable rainfall along and east of Interstate 77 will come to an end. The remnants of Debby are expected to move faster to the north and out of our area on Friday with drier high pressure spreading over the region in its wake through the weekend.
Minor updates made to the forecast with abundant cloud upstream over MN per GOES fog/stratus imagery behind a low-level trough from roughly KDLH-KABR. Pulled the no rain chance line south to about I-94, bumped shower chances to the low 30s north of Highway 29, and increased cloud areawide during the day.
619 PM CDT Thu Aug 8 2024 (Tonight through Friday night) Hot conditions are seen this afternoon as the subtropical ridge continues to build into South Central Texas over the next day or two. Mostly clear skies and warm overnight lows from the low 70s to around 80 degrees are expected tonight, with another hot day tomorrow; albeit, temperatures may be a degree or two "cooler" than those seen today. There is a chance some of the most western counties in the advisory may stay just below criteria tomorrow due to the highest moisture expected in the east, but values remain close enough to continue the product as is.
Low temperatures will remain mainly in the 70s, slightly cooler northwest. 75 Previous short-term discussion: (This afternoon through Friday) While Tropical Storm Debby swirls over the Carolinas, a much drier and warmer forecast is in place across Central Alabama. This has resulted in an overcast low-level cloud deck across the western portions of the area which has been slow to mix apart, but expect the clouds to scatter through the afternoon allowing temperatures to warm into the lower to mid 90s.
613 PM CDT Thu Aug 8 2024 (This evening through Friday) In response to an upper low across southwestern Ontario and the subsequent troughing regime moving through the Great Lakes, the upper level ridge overhead is expected to flatten out and weaken along its eastern periphery.
917 PM CDT Thu Aug 8 2024 A dry cold front will push across the Mid-South overnight.
We are still considering the need for frost headlines over parts of western North Dakota tonight, with cooler temperatures expected tonight compared to last night when we did have a few reports of patchy frost in low-lying areas.
North flow will persist at times overnight due to the pressure gradient resulting from TD Debby and high pressure building south through the Plains and upper Midwest.
759 PM CDT Thu Aug 8 2024 (This evening through Friday night) As of this afternoon, latest radar and satellite imagery were showing the expected cold frontal boundary slowly make it way across the Panhandles. With it are not only light showers, but much cooler temperatures as latest mesonets reports are seeing at least 10 degree difference. Otherwise, look for much cooler temperatures to follow behind the front with afternoon highs for tomorrow closer to 70s and 80s.
620 PM CDT Thu Aug 8 2024 - Cooler and pleasant through the weekend, with highs in the upper 60s to mid 70s and lows in the upper 40s and 50s. On Friday, low pressure to our north sinks further south into northern Lake Superior.
627 PM CDT Thu Aug 8 2024 (This evening through Friday night) Tropical Depression Debby still in the vicinity of Charlotte this afternoon, with upper ridging over New Mexico. That ridging extends southeastward into the northwest Gulf of Mexico. The main impact with that will be to allow the ridging to the west to expand eastward slightly.
820 PM CDT Thu Aug 8 2024 Stable conditions to persist overnight with temperatures forecast to radiate down into the low to mid 70s across the region. High clouds from convection across New Mexico into the Texas panhandle are forecast to round the northern periphery of a prevailing upper-ridge and stream into ArkLaTex overnight bringing partly cloudy skies areawide.
738 PM EDT Thu Aug 8 2024 A weakening Tropical Cyclone Debby will gradually track northward from the Charlotte area tonight and the considerable rainfall along and east of Interstate 77 will come to an end. The remnants of Debby are expected to move faster to the north and out of our area on Friday with drier high pressure spreading over the region in its wake through the weekend.
227 AM EDT Fri Aug 9 2024 - - Turning cooler and windy with increasing lake-enhanced shower chances. - Scattered showers (perhaps an isolated storm), cooler temperatures, and breezy winds this weekend. Mid level low/deep troughing will essentially pivot across central Ontario and northern Lake Superior into tonight, sending a rather respectable shot of mid-summer chill across the Northwoods into the start of this weekend. However, cloud depths do look deep enough (especially on Lake Superior) that when combined with that passing trough tonight. Lows tonight mostly in the lower and middle 50s. Pattern Synopsis and Forecast: Deep, fall-looking, upper low with various internal spokes of energy will reside in the vicinity and just to the north of northern Michigan.
(Today through Saturday) The Subtropical Ridge remains just to our northwest today through Saturday.
115 AM EDT Fri Aug 9 2024 - Increased winds behind a cold front Friday and Saturday will bring dangerous swimming conditions to Lake Michigan beaches.
(Today through Saturday Night) A cold front continued to drop southward acrs AR during the overnight hrs, allowing a reinforcing shot of slightly cooler and drier air to start advecting into the FA. The Mid-South wl stay under a W/NW mid lvl flow pattern as a flat upper rdg rmns centered acrs TX, and an upper low meanders north of the Great Lakes region. Highs today wl be close to seasonal norms, ranging fm the mid 80s to the lower 90s.
A cold front is pushing through the area this afternoon with scattered light showers associated with it.
204 AM CDT Fri Aug 9 2024 - Very pleasant weather with below normal temperature and humidity levels is expected today through this weekend following the passage of a dry cold front.
1213 AM CDT Fri Aug 9 2024 (This evening through Friday) In response to an upper low across southwestern Ontario and the subsequent troughing regime moving through the Great Lakes, the upper level ridge overhead is expected to flatten out and weaken along its eastern periphery.
(Today through Saturday) A mid to upper level ridge centered over north and central Texas will continue to remain in place throughout the short term period.
1220 AM CDT Fri Aug 9 2024 (Tonight through Friday night) Hot conditions are seen this afternoon as the subtropical ridge continues to build into South Central Texas over the next day or two. Mostly clear skies and warm overnight lows from the low 70s to around 80 degrees are expected tonight, with another hot day tomorrow; albeit, temperatures may be a degree or two "cooler" than those seen today. There is a chance some of the most western counties in the advisory may stay just below criteria tomorrow due to the highest moisture expected in the east, but values remain close enough to continue the product as is.
A cold front will pass through the Midsouth tonight, bringing less humid and slightly cooler conditions for the weekend.
(Today and tonight) Weak cold front just north of I-20 early this morning will continue to sag south into West Central Texas today. Still very hot, but at least cooler than the last few days.
(Friday through Saturday night) Prevailing flow will shift to become more out of the southwest by Saturday as Tropical Storm Debby moves northward and a cold front presses in from out of the north of the forecast area. High temperatures for the end of the week and into the weekend will be in the lower to mid 90s with overnight low temperatures dropping down into the mid 70s over inland areas and into the upper 70s and lower 80s along the coastline.
200 AM MDT Fri Aug 9 2024 Satellite imagery shows lingering confluent flow aloft over much of MT and the northern plains, in the wake of departing upper low well to our east over Ontario & Lake Superior. This confluence supports lee side high pressure and continued easterly winds. and only gradual warming despite the low being so far removed from our region. Some high res models show low shower chances tonight in response to a mid level warm front and a modest increase in elevated instability.
1215 AM CDT Fri Aug 9 2024 Stable conditions to persist overnight with temperatures forecast to radiate down into the low to mid 70s across the region. High clouds from convection across New Mexico into the Texas panhandle are forecast to round the northern periphery of a prevailing upper-ridge and stream into ArkLaTex overnight bringing partly cloudy skies areawide.
A cold front also extends through the Great Plains ahead of high pressure. This will put the region in more of a northwesterly flow pattern with some lingering moisture sufficient for additional activity confined to the higher terrain.
1129 PM CDT Thu Aug 8 2024 A dry cold front will push across the Mid-South overnight.
300 AM EDT Fri Aug 9 2024 - Breezy and cooler on Saturday with westerly wind gusts around 30 mph.
Through Friday night: A cold front dropping across the Upper Midwest this afternoon, will shift eastward across our area this evening. A cooler and drier airmass will be ushered in across the area on these breezy winds, which will make for a cooler day Friday as afternoon highs remain in the 70s under partly cloudy skies.
High temperatures climb a few degrees above normal, mostly in the low to mid 90s this afternoon.
An upper level trough moving across the Upper Midwest will settle over southern Ontario just north of the Great Lakes region later today into Saturday. Low stratus will gradually develop toward daybreak as residual moisture banks against the higher terrain toward the Virginia border. High pressure continues to move into the area tonight behind a cold front crossing the area. Lows tonight will range from the mid-50s to the lower 60s, with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s Saturday. The period starts on the backside of an exiting cold front with cooler west to northwesterly flow.
(Today) Cooler and drier air continues to filter into the region behind the recent cold frontal passage and prevailing northerly winds. The most likely scenario is that this development remains west of the forecast area, although there is a low chance of development into far southeast Oklahoma this morning, given the location of the low level moisture and instability axis just to the west.