Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Upper ridging then filters back into the region into the weekend bringing a warming trend to the region. Atmospheric moisture is lower today with satellite derived PWATs around one inch and dewpoints are in the upper 60s and should mix out into the lower to mid 60s. Otherwise, a nice day for June is expected with lower humidity and highs in the lower to mid 90s. In the upper levels, anomalous high pressure ridge will build east across the MS and TN Valleys, and temps will still climb into the low to mid 90's Saturday afternoon.
425 AM CDT Fri Jun 20 2025 Weak upper level troughing will move east of the area today. Temperatures remain warm in the upper 80s and lower 90s for highs with lows in the lower to middle 70s. /13 A typical summer diurnal pattern continues through the period as a large upper high pressure area dominates the eastern half of the U. Temperatures will average up to 5 degrees above normal through the extended, with highs in the middle 90s inland and the lower 90s along the beaches and barrier islands. Low temperatures interior areas will be in the lower to middle 70s and the upper 70s along the beaches and barrier islands.
621 AM EDT Fri Jun 20 2025 A weak cold front will stall over the area through tonight. A strong ridge of high pressure will then build in over the eastern U. Key Messages/Highlights: *Very low risk of a severe storm w/ damaging wind gusts this aftn east of I-95, mainly in NC *Temps near to slightly above normal Confidence: *Moderate to High Details: Showers/storms along a pre-frontal trough have mainly stayed north of our forecast area across SE NC & NE SC but still can't rule out a few early this morning as a weak cold front approaches from the NW, especially in NC closer to the better moisture/forcing.
721 AM EDT Fri Jun 20 2025 (Today through Saturday) Ensembles and global guidance show persisting mid level ridging over the region, while high pressure sfc also dominates the western Atlantic and the Florida peninsula through the short term. High temperatures today and Saturday will generally reach the low 90s, warmest today, along with heat index values in the 100 to 105 range across most of the area each afternoon.
1017 AM EDT Fri Jun 20 2025 A weak cold front will stall over the area through tonight. A strong ridge of high pressure will then build in over the eastern U. Key Messages/Highlights: *Very low risk of a severe storm w/ damaging wind gusts this aftn east of I-95, mainly in NC *Temps near to slightly above normal Confidence: *Moderate to High Details: Showers/storms along a pre-frontal trough have mainly stayed north of our forecast area across SE NC & NE SC but still can't rule out a few early this morning as a weak cold front approaches from the NW, especially in NC closer to the better moisture/forcing.
644 AM CDT Fri Jun 20 2025 Weak upper level troughing will move east of the area today. Temperatures remain warm in the upper 80s and lower 90s for highs with lows in the lower to middle 70s. /13 A typical summer diurnal pattern continues through the period as a large upper high pressure area dominates the eastern half of the U. Temperatures will average up to 5 degrees above normal through the extended, with highs in the middle 90s inland and the lower 90s along the beaches and barrier islands. Low temperatures interior areas will be in the lower to middle 70s and the upper 70s along the beaches and barrier islands.
Wet and cooler weather is in store for today and Saturday as an upper level low moves overhead.
Ridging and southwesterly flow continue to dominate the pattern advecting warm air and moisture into the region.
-Stalley Previous Discussion: /Through Saturday/ A building mid-level ridge across the eastern half of the CONUS will promote seasonably hot and mostly rain free weather to end the workweek and begin the weekend.
Ridging draped over the area has kept weather conditions pretty typical for this time of year. Low pressure currently located over the northeastern U. and the border with Canada will continue to lift away, allowing for an anomalously deep ridge to build over virtually all of the eastern U. Due to the very distant proximity to the heart of this ridge, we don't anticipate the significant and drastic jump in temperatures that others may see. However, we will likely be on the periphery of this high pressure, and moisture fluxes moving from east to west in the lower levels could lead to increased chances for showers and thunderstorms. Atlantic ridging across the Florida Peninsula will continue to gradually weaken, resulting in relaxed breezes.
Elsewhere, clouds should manage to mix out sooner and will keep highs in the lower to mid 90s.
Afterwards with generally unfiltered solar insolation expected, high temperatures despite a moist ground should rise into upper 80s to around 90, with heat indices 4-8 degrees warmer.
222 AM PDT Fri Jun 20 2025 Cooler through Saturday with gusty west winds in the mountains and deserts, along with a deep marine layer accompanied by extensive night and morning low clouds west of the mountains.
939 AM EDT Fri Jun 20 2025 Drier and less humid through Saturday as high pressure builds into the region.
511 AM PDT Fri Jun 20 2025 Cooler than normal temperatures today will continue into the weekend.
However, this will change over time as a rather strong upper low for this time of the year moves into the area. Saturday will be cooler with isolated to scattered showers over most of the forecast area. Low pressure will bring unseasonably cool air, numerous showers and also isolated thunderstorms, especially north of Cape Blanco, Friday afternoon and evening.
- Upper High to keep rain chances at a minimum through Saturday with hot and humid conditions as max afternoon heat index values will be around 100-106 degrees.
Water vapor imagery shows an upper level low entering the Pacific northwest and a ridge amplifying over the central U. Temperatures have climbed into the mid to upper 80s with dew points in the low to mid 70s.
This is simply the beginning of the gradual uptrend of PoPs through the weekend as a low to mid level inverted trough pivots through our CWA. From synopsis, Atlantic ridging across the Florida Peninsula will continue to gradually weaken, resulting in relaxed breezes.
An upper air level high pressure center over the mid south will amplify to the northeast during this period. With a deepening broad upper level trough across the western U.
In general though, expect any pcpn off to our north and west to continue to dissipate as it moves into the high pressure/drier airmass currently in place across our area. Mid level ridge will begin to build into the region Saturday into Saturday night. Lows Saturday night will be in the low to mid 70s. Upper ridge will be well entrenched across the region to start the period.
(This evening through Saturday) Today we see the transition of our airmass begin as surface ridging builds into the SE US from the W Atlantic. In the upper levels, ridging is present over the South with the center over LA.
- Triple digit highs remain a threat in the lower desert valleys today.
With surface and mid level ridging drifting well to the east, a steady southeast flow will will continue to usher moisture into the region, however there's nothing much out of the ordinary to trigger more than isolated to scattered coverage.
- High pressure will suppress most rain chances, but there will be a very low chance (less than 20 percent) for popup thunderstorms each afternoon and early evening. By midday Saturday, a strong 594 upper ridge will be centered directly overhead. As noted by our friends at LMK, the lush greenery from recent rainfall will tend to hold back temps a little, so our forecast highs based on NBM may be a degree or 2 on the high side through the next couple of days. Although a ridge with sinking air will be overhead Saturday, 3000+ capes may help an isolated storm or 2 to break through the cap during the max heating of the afternoon.
As ridging overhead maintains the heat and southerly flow sustains the humidity, uncomfortable conditions will persist throughout the forecast period. The upper level ridging will continue to drift eastward over the Deep South as the weekend begins, and will broaden as it reorganizes itself around a large area of high pressure, keeping the subsident effects well and truly locked in for the ArkLaTex. Highs Saturday afternoon will range from the low 90s west to the mid and upper 90s east.
Satellite image shows a strong upper low for this time of the year moving into the area. This will keep temperatures from falling off too quickly, but a few locations east of the Cascades that get periods of brief clearing could get close to freezing towarrds daybreak Saturday. Several of the high res CAMS (convective allowing models) showing simulated radar returns supports this thinking in addition to the operational models. Showers will linger into Saturday evening, then gradually diminishing overnight as the upper trough moves east and we get on the backside of the upper low with a drier northerly flow.
1248 PM CDT Fri Jun 20 2025 A more typical summer regime is expected to persist through the end of the period with high pressure dominating over the area. Southerly flow is retained in the low levels on the western side of an 850 high, thus our moisture is sticking around. The high dewpoints in the mid to upper 70s, will elevate heat indices generally to the 100-105 range, with some isolated 105+, particularly the river valleys. The high heat and humidity also means the chances for rain and storms will stick around. Areal coverage will focused further east due to building high pressure ridge to the west.
Mid-level high pressure will continue to shift east through the weekend, leaving South Central Texas on the western edge of this ridge. Expect slightly cooler temperatures in the west tomorrow as cloud cover lingers longest there. Highs may peak in the upper 80s over portions of the southern Edwards Plateau and Hill Country with the low to mid 90s elsewhere.
- High pressure will suppress most rain chances, but there will be a very low chance (less than 20 percent) for popup thunderstorms each afternoon and early evening.
954 AM PDT Fri Jun 20 2025 Gusty westerly winds over the mountains and into the deserts through Saturday with cooler conditions and a more extensive marine layer low cloud coverage.
Widespread showers and thunderstorms continue to pop up across the region as weak ridging remains across the FL peninsula. With a trough passing north and the axis shifted a little farther east today, a light NW flow of less than 5kts has settled in the low levels of the atmosphere. Over the weekend, the ridge builds back in as some drier air returns to West Central and Southwest Florida.
Issued by National Weather Service Boise ID 143 PM PDT Fri Jun 20 2025 Updated at 114 PM PDT Fri Jun 20 2025 * Widespread critical fire weather conditions thru this evening * Wind advisory for strong southwesterly winds thru this evening * Cooler but with gusty northwesterly winds Saturday.
1152 AM CDT Fri Jun 20 2025 A more typical summer regime is expected to persist through the end of the period with high pressure dominating over the area. Southerly flow is retained in the low levels on the western side of an 850 high, thus our moisture is sticking around. The high dewpoints in the mid to upper 70s, will elevate heat indices generally to the 100-105 range, with some isolated 105+, particularly the river valleys. The high heat and humidity also means the chances for rain and storms will stick around. Convective development and TSRA coverage will be less robust than in recent days, and it will be focused more during the peak heating hours as a ridge builds over the area.
A 592 decameter subtropical ridge will strengthen/move eastward across the ArkLaTex and ArkLaMiss today. The subtropical ridge will strengthen to around 594 decameters on Saturday. Temperatures will be in the lower 90s, and there will be a low chance of heat indices hitting 105 degrees in West Alabama where the highest dew points will be.
347 PM EDT Fri Jun 20 2025 A weakening cold front will dissipate over the coast into this weekend. A strong ridge of high pressure will then build in over the eastern U. Lows in the lower 70s with highs in the lower 90s. Mid to upper ridge will build over the region with steady height rises.
This is simply the beginning of the gradual uptrend of PoPs through the weekend as a low to mid level inverted trough pivots through our CWA. Low pressure currently located over the northeastern U. and the border with Canada will continue to lift away, allowing for an anomalously deep ridge to build over virtually all of the eastern U. Due to the very distant proximity to the heart of this ridge, we don't anticipate the significant and drastic jump in temperatures that others may see. However, we will likely be on the periphery of this high pressure, and moisture fluxes moving from east to west in the lower levels could lead to increased chances for showers and thunderstorms. From synopsis, Atlantic ridging across the Florida Peninsula will continue to gradually weaken, resulting in relaxed breezes.
An intense and expansive upper-level ridge is expected to take shape across much of the eastern CONUS, with latest ensemble guidance suggesting 50% probabilities of H85 temperatures of at least 22 deg C. This will easily support multiple days with daytime high temperatures in the mid 90s, which combined with abundant low-level moisture with dew points in the lower to middle 70s will support persistent Heat Index values from 95-105 deg F.
126 PM PDT Fri Jun 20 2025 Gusty westerly winds over the mountains and into the deserts through Saturday with cooler conditions and a more extensive marine layer low cloud coverage.
346 PM CDT Fri Jun 20 2025 Upper ridging dominates the synoptic pattern across the forecast area with generally isolated to locally scattered showers and storms during the mid to late afternoon hours, primarily in the vicinity of the sea breeze boundary. Temperatures remain warm in the lower to middle 90's for highs with lows in the lower to middle 70's. MM/25 The diurnal pattern continues through the period as a large upper high pressure area dominates the eastern half of the U. Temperatures will average up to 5 degrees above normal through the extended, with highs in the middle 90s inland and the lower 90s along the beaches and barrier islands. Low temperatures interior areas will be in the lower to middle 70s and the upper 70s along the beaches and barrier islands.
325 PM EDT Fri Jun 20 2025 Less humid conditions are expected through Saturday as high pressure builds into the region.
216 PM EDT Fri Jun 20 2025 A weak cold front will stall over the area through tonight. A strong ridge of high pressure will then build in over the eastern U. Key Messages/Highlights: *Very low risk of a severe storm w/ damaging wind gusts this aftn east of I-95, mainly in NC *Temps near to slightly above normal Confidence: *Moderate to High Details: Showers/storms along a pre-frontal trough have mainly stayed north of our forecast area across SE NC & NE SC but still can't rule out a few early this morning as a weak cold front approaches from the NW, especially in NC closer to the better moisture/forcing.
- Scattered precipitation chances through the weekend with much cooler temperatures. The heaviest precipitation, for most, falls tonight as showers continue late into the evening and overnight as the bulk of the heaviest precipitation begins to shift northward toward the international border as it wraps around the northernmost lobe of this low pressure system.
1215 PM CDT Fri Jun 20 2025 Weak upper level troughing will move east of the area today. Temperatures remain warm in the upper 80s and lower 90s for highs with lows in the lower to middle 70s. /13 A typical summer diurnal pattern continues through the period as a large upper high pressure area dominates the eastern half of the U. Temperatures will average up to 5 degrees above normal through the extended, with highs in the middle 90s inland and the lower 90s along the beaches and barrier islands. Low temperatures interior areas will be in the lower to middle 70s and the upper 70s along the beaches and barrier islands.
130 PM EDT Fri Jun 20 2025 (Today through Saturday) Ensembles and global guidance show persisting mid level ridging over the region, while high pressure sfc also dominates the western Atlantic and the Florida peninsula through the short term. High temperatures today and Saturday will generally reach the low 90s, warmest today, along with heat index values in the 100 to 105 range across most of the area each afternoon.
1229 PM CDT Fri Jun 20 2025 - Upper High to keep rain chances at a minimum through Saturday with hot and humid conditions as max afternoon heat index values will be around 105 degrees.
/NEW/ /Today and Tomorrow/ Mid-level high pressure will be shifting east across the Southern Plains today, leading to widespread subsidence throughout the area.
Satellite image shows a strong upper low for this time of the year moving into the area. This will keep temperatures from falling off too quickly, but a few locations east of the Cascades that get periods of brief clearing could get close to freezing towards daybreak Saturday. Several of the high res CAMS (convective allowing models) showing simulated radar returns supports this thinking in addition to the operational models. Showers will linger into Saturday evening, then gradually diminishing overnight as the upper trough moves east and we get on the backside of the upper low with a drier northerly flow.
/Issued 1252 PM CDT Fri Jun 20 2025/ /Today and Tomorrow/ Mid-level high pressure will be shifting east across the Southern Plains today, leading to widespread subsidence throughout the area.
An upper air level high pressure center over the mid south will amplify to the northeast during this period. With a deepening broad upper level trough across the western U. Expect VFR condns to prevail thru the PD as upper lvl high pressure settles in over the region this weekend.
Heading into the weekend, the high shifts a little farther north, bringing in more of a light east to southeast flow. Dispersions will be on the lower side Saturday afternoon with dry north and northeasterly flow still prevailing.
Scattered to numerous thunderstorms will develop Saturday afternoon and evening, with the highest thunderstorm chances between 20-01z.
736 PM EDT Fri Jun 20 2025 A weakening cold front will dissipate over the coast into this weekend. A strong ridge of high pressure will then build in over the eastern U. Lows in the lower 70s with highs in the lower 90s. Mid to upper ridge will build over the region with steady height rises.
A wet and cooler weather pattern will continue into Saturday as an upper level low moves through western Washington.
Much drier air associated with strong high pressure continues to push into Middle TN as seen by water vapor imagery and our 00Z sounding. With this high pressure overhead, a calm night is ahead. By midday Saturday, a strong 594 upper ridge will be centered directly overhead. As noted by our friends at LMK, the lush greenery from recent rainfall will tend to hold back temps a little, so our forecast highs based on NBM may be a degree or 2 on the high side through the next couple of days. Although a ridge with sinking air will be overhead Saturday, 3000+ capes may help an isolated storm or 2 to break through the cap during the max heating of the afternoon.
516 PM CDT Fri Jun 20 2025 Updated to correct the AFD format: A more typical summer regime is expected to persist through the end of the period with high pressure dominating over the area. Southerly flow is retained in the low levels on the western side of an 850 high, thus our moisture is sticking around. The high dewpoints in the mid to upper 70s, will elevate heat indices generally to the 100-105 range, with some isolated 105+, particularly the river valleys. The high heat and humidity also means the chances for rain and storms will stick around. Areal coverage will focused further east due to building high pressure ridge to the west.
/22/ Updated to correct the AFD format: A more typical summer regime is expected to persist through the end of the period with high pressure dominating over the area. Southerly flow is retained in the low levels on the western side of an 850 high, thus our moisture is sticking around. The high dewpoints in the mid to upper 70s, will elevate heat indices generally to the 100-105 range, with some isolated 105+, particularly the river valleys. The high heat and humidity also means the chances for rain and storms will stick around.
616 PM PDT Fri Jun 20 2025 - Big pattern change heading into the weekend with much cooler temperatures and rain showers.
625 PM CDT Fri Jun 20 2025 Updated to correct the AFD format: A more typical summer regime is expected to persist through the end of the period with high pressure dominating over the area. Southerly flow is retained in the low levels on the western side of an 850 high, thus our moisture is sticking around. The high dewpoints in the mid to upper 70s, will elevate heat indices generally to the 100-105 range, with some isolated 105+, particularly the river valleys. The high heat and humidity also means the chances for rain and storms will stick around.
Slightly cooler today than yesterday but still hotter than normal with highs in Tucson and Safford from 108 to 110 and 100 to 106 in other desert locations.
These storms are stilling struggling to grow against the subsidence of the high pressure that currently controls our weather pattern, however some storms could still bring gusty winds as DCAPE is sufficient for a quick downbursts. This is because the high pressure will still be move eastward with more southerly winds returning.
Mid level ridge will begin to build into the region Saturday into Saturday night. Lows Saturday night will be in the low to mid 70s. Upper ridge will be well entrenched across the region to start the period.
601 PM CDT Fri Jun 20 2025 - Upper High to keep rain chances at a minimum through Saturday with hot and humid conditions as max afternoon heat index values will be around 100-106 degrees.
High pressure will build northward from south Florida Saturday and extend over the local waters, with southeasterly winds across the local waters.
The first round made it to the Lower Keys before quickly dissipating. Key West on the western end of the line saw a brief shower, while further up in the Lower Keys, some areas picked up a half to nearly an inch of rain. This is enough to have stifled the first round that moved through the Lower Keys. From synopsis: Atlantic ridging across the Florida Peninsula will continue to gradually weaken, resulting in relaxed breezes.
905 PM EDT Fri Jun 20 2025 Less humid conditions are expected through Saturday as high pressure builds into the region.
948 PM EDT Fri Jun 20 2025 A weakening cold front will dissipate over the coast into this weekend. A strong ridge of high pressure will then build in over the eastern U. Lows in the lower 70s with highs in the lower 90s. Mid to upper ridge will build over the region with steady height rises.
- Upper High to keep rain chances at a minimum today with hot and humid conditions as max afternoon heat index values will be around 100-106 degrees.
A near 1020 mb high sits just east of the region with an almost 590 dam ridge aloft, according to SPC meso.
- Front shifts east across the state tonight, with much cooler temps statewide and likely precipitation for the northern half of the state. The longwave trough along the west coast is beginning to trek east this morning, and will bring a considerable shift int he weather of western WY during the next 36 hours. Diffluence aloft ahead of the trough is bringing some light rain around YNP this morning, which may briefly shift into the Bighorn Range this afternoon. The trough has also pushed the leading edge of the cold front into western WY, which will keep areas west of the divide a good 10 degrees cooler than yesterday. The trough then moves east across the Northern Rockies tonight, pushing the cold front across the state.