Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
302 AM CST Sun Nov 30 2025 - Winds will calm tonight and lows will drop into the teens with wind chills in the single digits - Cold air continues through Monday - A quick moving system will bring light accumulations of snow to parts of southwest and north central Kansas on Monday The current synoptic pattern is headlined only by a trough along the northern section of the CONUS bringing snow across the majority of midwestern states. Present RAP mesoanalysis has western Kansas dominated by weak ridging that has been building.
546 AM CST Sun Nov 30 2025 + Cold air has settled over the area in the wake of the cold front that moved through earlier in the weekend. + Guidance is now indicating less snow and more in the way of freezing rain starting Monday morning.
Low level moisture trapped under high pressure has continue to bring low clouds and patchy to areas of fog. When this lifts is an area of uncertainty, although may take until the area of high pressure moves eastward and an upper level wave brings increased winds aloft. Currently, northwest flow aloft with an embedded S/WV trough propagating southeast across the Northern Plains. Low level clouds and scattered flurries persist, along with some light snow downstream of Lake Sakakawea where some lake enhancement is occurring thanks to the low level cold northwest flow over the warmer lake waters.
- Patchy to locally dense freezing fog along parts of the Hi-line.
503 AM CST Sun Nov 30 2025 Updated at 501 AM CST Sun Nov 30 2025 - Strong gap winds in the Guadalupe Mountains continue with near freezing temperatures for many this morning. - The coldest day so far this season is expected today, with afternoon highs in the low-to-mid 40s for most.
1238 PM EST Sun Nov 30 2025 Cold front cross this afternoon with one last line of showers.
507 AM EST Sun Nov 30 2025 Cold front today, with a wintry mix along the eastern slopes of the WV mountains.
Lake effect snow in combination with the low pressure system as it moves into southern lower Michigan this morning. The bands are bringing enhanced snowfall rates to most of the South Shore this morning, with northeast low level winds and lake surface temperatures in the low 40s. Returning to the low pressure system to our southeast, it is adding to the snowfall over northwest Wisconsin and east-central Minnesota early this morning. Elsewhere, we remain in cyclonic flow at the low levels most of today, that together with the steep low level lapse rates induced by the pool of cold air moving into the area at the mid levels, should get some convective-y snow showers going from mid morning through most of the afternoon. A ridge of high pressure will also slide across the area, which will help with some lighter wind speeds overnight.
342 AM MST Sun Nov 30 2025 - Freezing fog will result in some icy roads this morning across the Golden Triangle.
Model consensus generally supports areas along and north of Highway 50 for the highest snowfall potential (2-4 inches). The biggest limiting factor may be the shorter duration of the event as the progressive trough axis is progged to be east of area by late afternoon. Temperatures may struggle to reach freezing over much of the area with values topping out in the upper 20s. Most areas are expected to see highs climb into the low to mid 40s.
1121 AM CST Sun Nov 30 2025 - Winds will calm tonight and lows will drop into the teens with wind chills in the single digits - Cold air continues through Monday - A quick moving system will bring light accumulations of snow to parts of southwest and north central Kansas on Monday The current synoptic pattern is headlined only by a trough along the northern section of the CONUS bringing snow across the majority of midwestern states. Present RAP mesoanalysis has western Kansas dominated by weak ridging that has been building.
1258 PM EST Sun Nov 30 2025 - Transition to lake effect near lake shore today - Accumulating snow possible Monday afternoon/night - Cold week ahead - Transition to lake effect near lake shore today Surface obs reveal low pressure over central Lake MI early this morning. Winds will increase this afternoon as the low moves by and high pressure builds in behind it. - Accumulating snow possible Monday afternoon/night Boundary layer winds will become southwesterly Monday ahead of the next upper trough.
Daytime highs are expected to remain in the low 20s across most of the region, however areas with more snow on the ground may only have highs reach into the teens. As this low tracks south of the region, another round of snow showers is expected across portions of southwest into central Nebraska.
544 AM CST Sun Nov 30 2025 - Minor impacts from light freezing rain will be possible over far northwest portions of the area Monday.
541 AM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025 (Today) High pressure will continue to be dominant over the region today, with the 500mb and 850mb highs shifting slightly southwest through the day.
529 AM MDT Tue Jun 24 2025 - Cooler with more moisture and scattered to likely showers and thunderstorms today and Wednesday.
Southwest flow remains in place over southeastern Arizona today between a trough base sitting over southern California and a broad upper ridge centered over the mid-Atlantic. Tucson to Nogales will be on the western periphery of this moisture field, therefore see the lower end of shower and thunderstorm probabilities today as well as potential rainfall rates.
154 PM MDT Tue Jun 24 2025 KEY MESSAGES: - Warmer temperatures will return through the middle part of the week, but chances for showers and thunderstorms will continue at times. WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: An upper trough over the western states will increase southwest flow through midweek. With high pressure dropping into the upper midwest, low level southeast return flow will spread moisture into the region.
The marine layer is expected to remain 2000 to 2500 ft deep through Wednesday while we remain under cyclonic flow aloft as a trough moves across the West Coast. Highs Wednesday will be 4 to 8 degrees warmer than today for the mountains, deserts, and inland valleys.
With a trough axis to our west and a large area of high pressure to our east, Arizona remains in a mostly dry southwesterly flow. Maybe you've noticed New Mexico enjoying some much needed rain, and they'll remain under a wetter pattern than us until the trough across the Great Basin region lifts out of the area. The first hint at high pressure moving more towards the Four Corners is this weekend. Our confidence is higher when it comes to the hot to dangerously hot temperatures that will fall under this ridge, but moisture for the weekend is still iffy.
8 inches further north along the Lower Texas Coast. Otherwise, expect near normal temperatures with highs in the low to mid 90s.
Widely scattered thunderstorm development is likely again across the higher terrain of SE OK and WC AR. Bowlan (Today) Persistent upper pattern today with expansive upper ridge to the east, with local forecast area remaining under southerly flow on western side. Isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected again this afternoon favoring the higher terrain areas of western AR and southeast OK, with most guidance suggesting a minor uptick in coverage.
Meanwhile, further aloft, a mid- and upper-level low pressure system is situated further to the southwest. The wave axis associated with the lower-level disturbance near the Antilles will push towards the Straits of Florida roughly during the same time period.
(Rest of Today and Tonight) Strong upper level ridging remained anchored over the Mid Atlantic this morning. The 500mb reflection of this high was in the upper 590s decameters. Warm aloft in this ridge for the most part has suppressed the development of convection under and near it. The ridge's influence extended westward to the Tennessee Valley, albeit a little weaker in reducing shower/storm development. This heat plus dewpoint values in the lower 70s will produce heat index values of up to 107 degrees in few spots. Temperatures will cool down tonight with lows only in the low/mid 70s with light winds.
Highs this afternoon will top out in the low to mid 90s with heat index values around 100 degrees in most locations. More isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development within the higher terrain on Wednesday afternoon similar to the previous few days. After that, the ridge begins to weaken and flatten somewhat over the eastern CONUS which will allow some thunderstorm activity to become possible across the northern portions of the forecast area in the late afternoon and evening hours through the end of the week.
- High pressure will keep skies clear with zero precipitation starting Wednesday.
Due to strong ridging remaining over the southern Appalachians coverage will be isolated/scattered in nature and mainly across the terrain features.
Satellite through the morning showed an upper level trough lifting into central Nevada. Other than some very isolated, low impact showers on the Sierra crest this afternoon, dry conditions will prevail the rest of the week as the trough continues to lift out and ridging builds back in to replace it.
Currently, an upper level high sits centered over the Appalachian Mountains near the West Virginia Virginia border. Dew points remain mostly in the low to mid 70s. Diurnal warming has pushed temperatures into the low to mid 90s. Satellite imagery shows cumulus clouds moving in an anticyclonic pattern around the low. Tomorrow, expect more of the same as strong sunshine lifts temperatures back into the low to mid 90s.
1256 PM MDT Tue Jun 24 2025 KEY MESSAGES: - Warmer and drier today.
(This afternoon through next Tuesday) WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: All models continue to show a weak upper trough over the Great Basin this early afternoon period. By tomorrow, the upper trough axis is expected to shift to the east. Highs tomorrow will be in the 80s for the most part, with some of the cooler locales seeing the 70s.
At the tail-end of the near term a complex system looks to approach the FL Peninsula from the Atlantic via inverted trough rounding the base of the ridge to our north. SBCAPE across the western half of the area looks to be around 2500-3500 J/kg tomorrow, however MLCAPE looks to be mostly capped, given the proximity to the ridge. MLCAPE will be around 1500-2500 J/kg so any storms that do get through the inhibition with the aid of additional forcing from the inverted trough may turn severe with wind and hail being the primary threats.
Current Conditions and Synoptic Overview: Water vapor and upper air analysis continues to show a summertime high pressure cell located the Ohio River Valley with the Ozarks region on the western periphery. Mid level temps were slightly cooler today (9C) and a cumulus field had developed across the area. Overnight low temps continue to remain above average as lows are typically in the middle 60s with lows previously and going forward remaining in the lower 70s.
(Today and tonight) The synoptic pattern has not changed much, with upper level high pressure situated over the eastern U. and an upper trough over the western states. Temperatures will be near normal for this time of year, with afternoon highs in the low to mid 90s. Temperatures will be warm again tonight, with overnight lows mainly in the lower 70s. West Central Texas will continue to feel the influence of the upper level ridge through the weekend.
(This evening through Wednesday night) High pressure over the Tennessee and Ohio Valley will slowly expand west and continue to isolated that corridor of moisture to the western Panhandles, and into New Mexico. Given the very moist sounding and the overall high pressure that we're on the edge of, the concerns with the storms mainly fall on the hydro side of things, and that some localized flooding could be an issue if certain areas pick up enough rain, or areas that have already been hit with heavy rain in the past 24 to 48 hours pick up more rain.
1244 PM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025 (Rest of Today and Tonight) Strong upper level ridging remained anchored over the Mid Atlantic this morning. The 500mb reflection of this high was in the upper 590s decameters. Warm aloft in this ridge for the most part has suppressed the development of convection under and near it. The ridge's influence extended westward to the Tennessee Valley, albeit a little weaker in reducing shower/storm development. This heat plus dewpoint values in the lower 70s will produce heat index values of up to 107 degrees in few spots. Temperatures will cool down tonight with lows only in the low/mid 70s with light winds.
Similar to yesterday, hot and humid conditions will continue across our area as hi-res guidance continues to show the upper-level ridge over the southeast CONUS. This will allow for stout ridging over our forecast area and help suppress any moisture build up. Overnight lows will drop to the low to mid 70s areawide.
H500 ridge remains centered over the Central Appalachians this afternoon with sfc ridging in a similar position.
Temperatures have risen into the lower to middle 90s with dew points pooling in the mid 70s near and west of this cluster. Morning low temperatures will be in the lower to middle 70s.
(This evening through Wednesday) We will sit across the western edge of the high pressure system located across the southeastern U. Highs will remain in the lower to middle 90s. West Central Texas will continue to feel the influence of the upper level ridge through the weekend.
Mid to upper high pressure system remains in control across most of southeastern CONUS today. Southeast Texas is positioned in the southwestern edge of the ridge, meaning persistent east to southeasterly surface flow into the region. This is primarily driven by a passing weak embedded inverted trough aloft from the east.
- Showers and lightning storms gradually increase in coverage through the latter half of the week; a few strong storms with gusty winds possible each afternoon - Heat and humidity continue with peak heat indices reaching the low 100s - Moderate risk of rip currents continues at area beaches Now-Tonight. Temperatures have reached the mid/upper 80s along the coast to the low/mid 90s across the interior.
1217 PM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025 (Today through Wednesday) As an inverted upper trough swings through the region today, the diurnally driven showers and storms will likely be a bit more enhanced in terms of coverage. Good from a temperature perspective or at least some help as much of the east is baking under the 598dam ridge centered over the Mid Atlantic region. The trough under the high will swiftly move east of our region later tonight and Wednesday. though not zero with the higher POPs across the southwestern parishes and perhaps over the MS Gulf Coast ahead of the next potential impulse that arrives mainly outside the short term window. As POPs decrease on Wednesday, temperatures should soar, especially as the aforementioned H5 ridge centers a bit closer to our region over the Tennessee or lower Ohio River Valleys.
An upper level trough is over the Southwest currently, with temperatures expected to be below normal again today, and a slight chance for thunderstorms in the Sierra Nevada this afternoon.
(Rest of today and tonight) Shower and thunderstorm activity this afternoon has been focused farther west compared to yesterday as the upper ridge centered over the eastern US has built in more over the region, pushing the subtropical moisture plume westward. Can't rule out a stray shower or storm across northwest Oklahoma along the periphery of the moisture plume, but the vast majority of the area will remain dry through tonight with lows dropping into the low to mid 70s.
The marine layer is expected to remain 2000 to 2500 ft deep through Wednesday while we remain under cyclonic flow aloft as a trough moves across the West Coast. High temperatures today will be about 2 to 5 degrees warmer than yesterday.
(This evening through Wednesday night) An impulse within the easterly flow south of the strong H5 ridge continues to enhance diurnally driven convection this afternoon. Going into tonight, the wave will be replaced with upper ridging as the strong upper ridge begins to center over the Ohio/Tennessee River Valleys. With the ridging, think convective coverage will be much lower on Wednesday. Inversely, as POPs decrease temperatures will increase, and with the strong ridge close, heat advisory conditions will be possible.
1219 PM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025 - A surge of moisture around and upper level ridge associated with a weak disturbance will bring about high rain chances today, especially during the afternoon hours, with some locally torrential downpours possible.
An upper level ridge remains centered over the Mid Atlantic, while western U. troughing prevails. North and Central Texas is situated underneath the western edge of the ridge, and while better upper level moisture is situated further to our west, enough low level moisture will allow for isolated showers and storms to develop during peak heating both days. Near normal temperatures will persist with afternoon highs topping out in the low to mid 90s, and lows in the 70s.
A Tropical Upper Tropospheric Trough (TUTT), currently over the northwestern Gulf, will continue to drift over southern Texas/northern Mexico Wednesday.
Drier airmass remains in place in the low levels with seasonal highs expected (mid to upper 70s). High pressure will be over Fargo at 12z this morning. Winds will be turn south 5-15 kts thru the day and temps will be a bit warmer with highs into the 70s. The far south and southwest extension of this trough may generate isold shower/t-storms into areas along the ND/MB border late this aftn/eve. In addition though will watch deeper moisture from western Mexico north into Kansas and then into Iowa and southern MN and Wisconsin around the 500 mb ridge over Virginia.
But with the upper-level ridge still firmly in place over much of the Southeast US, skies will mostly clear out overnight. Lows will fall to the low to mid 70s just before sunrise tomorrow. The upper-level ridge will begin to retrograde over the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys on Wednesday. The ridge axis will situate itself over the southern Ozarks, which could provide some upper-level support for any afternoon thunderstorms that develop. None of these storms seem to be developing into anything stronger or longer-lived in the models, which suggests that this ridge axis won't be strong enough forcing to produce anything of terrible concern. Temperatures in the low to mid 90s will still make for a very warm afternoon. Temperatures Wednesday night will stay consistent with previous observed temps in the low to mid 70s.
This is leaving a narrow band of showers persisting from the Panhandles to near Omaha which is coincident with just ahead of the synoptic stationary boundary over west central Kansas into the lower Missouri valley.
1257 PM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025 (Today through Wednesday) Key messages: - Seasonable temperatures and heat index values - Low chances of rain each day Coastal Plains to I-35 corridor A Tropical Upper Tropospheric Trough (TUTT) currently seen over the northwestern Gulf drifts over southern Texas/northern Mexico today and Wednesday. With little or no changes to the lower level thermal ridge, temperatures and heat index values remain close to late June averages.
From synopsis, high pressure will remain dominant over the Florida Keys coastal waters through Wednesday, allowing for mainly gentle to moderate easterly breezes.
Latest HREF and HRRR suggests isolated storms will develop initially across the higher terrain than move into the valley by early evening. For Wednesday, upper ridge will remain across the southern Appalachians with similar thermodynamic pattern with moderate instability and little to no shear.
- Warmer and drier weather expected for the end of the week. Southeast flow has allowed for ample moisture advection into the High Plains this morning. Dewpoints in the 50s and 60s will be favorable for storm development, assuming the low stratus can burn off.
A trough over the Great Basin has resulted in modest southwest flow, which has contributed to critical fire weather conditions across the northwest half of the CWA. The highest chances for these showers is the southern and central mountains as well as some of the surrounding valleys. Tomorrow the trough passes overhead, which will provide lift for another round of showers and storms. Therefore expect at least a slight chance for showers tomorrow afternoon for most of the higher terrain and some adjacent valleys.
The axis of the large elongated upper ridge extending from north central Mexico to New England will remain mostly fixed going into midweek. The weather gets rather interesting from late Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday night as the center of an upper low pressure area north of the Bahamas approaches the Florida east coast. There should be enough mixing of drier air aloft where surface dewpoints will lower to around 70 degrees, keeping maximum apparent temperatures (heat indices) below 108 degrees, which is the lower end of our Heat Advisory criteria.
/NEW/ /Through Wednesday Night/ Ridging aloft and high pressure at the surface will keep any disturbances well to our north.
753 PM EDT Tue Jun 24 2025 - Showers and lightning storms gradually increase in coverage through the latter half of the week; a few strong storms with gusty winds possible each afternoon - Heat and humidity continue with peak heat indices reaching the low 100s - Moderate risk of rip currents continues at area beaches Now-Tonight. Temperatures have reached the mid/upper 80s along the coast to the low/mid 90s across the interior.
639 PM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025 The axis of the large elongated upper ridge extending from north central Mexico to New England will remain mostly fixed going into midweek. The weather gets rather interesting from late Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday night as the center of an upper low pressure area north of the Bahamas approaches the Florida east coast. There should be enough mixing of drier air aloft where surface dewpoints will lower to around 70 degrees, keeping maximum apparent temperatures (heat indices) below 108 degrees, which is the lower end of our Heat Advisory criteria.
629 PM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025 (This evening through Wednesday night) An impulse within the easterly flow south of the strong H5 ridge continues to enhance diurnally driven convection this afternoon. Going into tonight, the wave will be replaced with upper ridging as the strong upper ridge begins to center over the Ohio/Tennessee River Valleys. With the ridging, think convective coverage will be much lower on Wednesday. Inversely, as POPs decrease temperatures will increase, and with the strong ridge close, heat advisory conditions will be possible.
Morning low temperatures will be in the lower to middle 70s.
An upper level low will push through the state through the rest of the week.
A lower level reflection of this low extends across the Bahamas and Cuba and is nosing its way westward towards the Keys. Meanwhile, the western end of an Atlantic ridge extends across Florida. The Keys will remain on the western flank of the lower through upper level trough/low axis. The western flank of an Atlantic ridge reaching across the Florida Peninsula will weaken overnight.
Overnight tonight, the CWA will remain on the western periphery of a ridge of high pressure centered over Southeast U. More isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development within the higher terrain on Wednesday afternoon similar to the previous few days. After that, the ridge begins to weaken and flatten somewhat over the eastern CONUS which will allow some thunderstorm activity to become possible across the northern portions of the forecast area in the late afternoon and evening hours through the end of the week.
228 AM MDT Wed Jun 25 2025 - High pressure will keep skies clear with zero precipitation today.