Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
High pressure continues to ridge south of Florida keeping a predominant light westerly flow across the region. Max temps will top out in the low to mid 90's with heat indices reaching 100-105 degrees.
628 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Updated aviation portion for 12Z TAF issuance - Cooler and less humid weather is expected today, along with a slight chance of showers and possibly a thunderstorm.
This will bring another round of convection coming off the High Plains tonight with good model agreement on storms moving into northwest KS generally after 03z and central KS after 06z. Upper ridging will build across the Southern Plains for Sun into Mon and will allow the better storm chances to lift north for the start of the work week.
957 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 - Scattered showers and thunderstorms will linger across central Illinois today before a cold front passes.
642 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 (Today through Thursday Night) An upper level ridge remains west of Arkansas today providing a northwest flow over Arkansas. The upper ridge will move east Thursday and by Thursday night will be over Arkansas. A cold front will move into the area from the north today. Another round of thunderstorms is expected in central and south sections during the afternoon and evening along the cold front.
Water vapor imagery highlights mean layer ridging centered over northern Mexico, west of generally lower heights in the southeastern US and Florida. The 12Z FL RAOBs sampled falling falling upper level heights as the long wave trough loses latitude into Florida. From synopsis, a weak ridge axis will extend westward from the western Atlantic across the Straits of Florida today through Thursday morning, with light to gentle southwest to west breezes prevailing over the Keys waters.
440 AM PDT Wed Jun 26 2024 A cold front arrives Wednesday with wind and storms that last into Thursday.
1208 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 - Scattered showers and thunderstorms will linger across central Illinois today before a cold front passes.
1236 PM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024 A cold front crosses tonight through Thursday, with rounds showers and storms. Another cold front this weekend with additional storms. In addition, with freezing levels around 12k feet, some marginally severe hail is possible. Additional showers and storms will be possible Thursday across the higher terrain from any lingering moisture, but most of the area should dry out and be cooler. Models indicate that enough low level moisture will remain behind the cold front to produce scattered showers and thunderstorms in the mountains on Thursday, while others indicate a drier solution.
1050 AM PDT Wed Jun 26 2024 A cold front arrives Wednesday with wind and storms that last into Thursday.
1215 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 - Cooler and mostly dry conditions through Thursday.
415 PM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024 A cold front moves southeast across the area this evening and early tonight.
A cold front is approaching the Northern Rockies today. Cooler temperatures and unstable air behind the front Thursday will result in scattered showers and scattered thunderstorms across the region.
Temperatures will be slightly cooler tomorrow with highs in the upper 80s to near 90 degrees.
A weak cold front has moved into the far northern Texas Panhandle with a little bit stronger easterly winds behind it. Temperatures are also a little cooler behind this front in the north. More storms may develop after midnight in the Texas Panhandle as a low level jet brings additional moisture and an upper level short wave trough moves across the Oklahoma Panhandle.
1227 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 - Generally dry and cooler today after some morning showers.
This activity is being driven by a large increase in moisture associated with an approaching trough axis and cold front over the Midsouth region. There's currently a moisture gradient over the area, and there's still some drier air across the eastern half where dewpoints have once again mixed down into the lower to mid 60s. However, moisture will advect eastward with propagation of the trough, so expect further area-wide development of convection through the afternoon with the highest chance for rain focused generally along and west of I-65. Per RAP mesoanalysis, MUCAPE is around 3000-4000 J/kg in our west where dewpoints are in the lower 70s. There's been an increasing signal of scattered showers and storms continuing overnight and into tomorrow as the cold front and strong PVA move southward into the area.
1222 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 (Today through Thursday) The upper level ridge remains centered northwest of the area today. Far to the north of the area, we will be watching for a potential complex of storms this afternoon moving south around the ridge through Arkansas. Global models indicate the ridge building back east over the area Thursday, which would help to limit this possibility. With temperatures at or slightly warmer today, we will continue to see locations near the I-35 corridor and across the Coastal Plains into heat advisory criteria this afternoon. Slightly warmer temperatures are forecast Thursday as heights increase with the aforementioned ridge building east.
Lows tonight will be in the low 70s across the CWA, with some upper 60s in northwest Arkansas.
1248 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 - Thunderstorms this morning will exit off to the southeast early in the day, giving way to a much nicer day with cooler temperatures than we've seen in a while.
Florida remains situated between upper ridging south and west of Florida, while upper troughing persists north of the area. On the surface, high pressure ridges south of Florida and into the central Gulf of Mexico.
Near to slightly below normal temperatures persist through the remainder of the week as troughing settles in. Troughing settles in today helping to usher in some cooler temperatures across the region and good onshore flow. That being said, temperatures will be in the upper 50s and low 60s today and tomorrow, with interior regions seeing high temps in the low to mid 80s, and regions near bays seeing highs in the mid to upper 70s.
1145 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 - Cold front passage early this morning leading to pull back in temperature and a breezy northeast wind 15 to 25 mph. It all begins thanks to a cold frontal passage this morning. Said cold front was approaching west central Kansas at 08Z (3 AM CDT), which will be felt by an increase in northeast winds this morning.
Slightly cooler tomorrow, but still near normal temperatures. Discussion: A weak upper level trough and associated cold front will swing down from the northwest and into our area this evening. This is as forcing becomes more favorable with the arrival of the trough.
However, the center of the upper ridge will begin expanding E into the Srn Plains Thursday, allowing for a deeper wedge of drier air to begin mixing S into the area, thus tapering the convection back by the afternoon and resulting for slightly cooler dewpoints to mix SSW in wake of the front. This should result in slightly cooler conditions over much of Srn AR and NCntrl LA.
Winds associated with a trough passage across the Pacific Northwest will increase through this afternoon, while the air mass becomes drier and produces enhanced fire weather and lake recreation concerns. While winds will diminish in most valleys overnight, gusts of 50-70 mph will continue for higher elevations and ridge tops. Behind this trough on Thursday, temperatures ease back a bit to near late June averages, with some leftover W-NW breezes during the day.
KMSL should reach the low to mid-90s before the storms are forecast to move through.
109 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Updated aviation portion for 18Z TAF issuance - Cooler and less humid weather is expected today, along with a slight chance of showers and possibly a thunderstorm.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms continue this morning across the area, ahead of a cold front that will move through tonight. High temperatures in the mid 90s in the lower valleys today.
(Tonight through Thursday night) The mid-level ridge will continue to be the driving force for the weather of Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley as it moves eastward. As for the low temperatures, for tonight, the lows are generally expected to be in the 70s with a few places in the 80s. However tomorrow night, the low temperatures for most of the Middle and Lower Rio Grande Valley will be in the 80s, while the rest of the area will be in the 70s.
140 PM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024 A cold front crosses tonight through Thursday, with rounds showers and storms. Another cold front this weekend with additional storms. In addition, with freezing levels around 12k feet, some marginally severe hail is possible. Additional showers and storms will be possible Thursday across the higher terrain from any lingering moisture, but most of the area should dry out and be cooler. Models indicate that enough low level moisture will remain behind the cold front to produce scattered showers and thunderstorms in the mountains on Thursday, while others indicate a drier solution.
1209 PM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Thunderstorms capable of producing damaging wind and localized flooding are expected this afternoon and evening ahead of a cold front.
Inland temperatures are in the upper 90s for SE GA and mid to upper 90s for NE FL with slightly cooler temperatures along the coast. Overnight temperatures will be in the low to mid 70s.
(This afternoon through Thursday night) WV imagery shows the upper ridge centered over New Mexico/northern Chihuahua this afternoon, resulting in a warm afternoon of triple- digit highs most locations. Convection that developed overnight has mostly diminished, but the HRRR redevelops convection early this afternoon over the higher terrain west of the Pecos, where it's needed most. Overnight, an upper trough is forecast to make landfall in the PacNW, and will begin flattening the ridge Thursday. This portends good news for those who don't like the heat, as thicknesses will come down a notch, and highs will be a degree or so cooler than today's. East-southeasterly upslope flow will once again develop convection over the higher terrain, and this will continue into the evening hours.
Overnight, mild/warm temperatures in the low to mid 70s can be expected for the interior/coasts respectively.
Not much change through the next 24 hours across the Florida Keys with a low-level ridge axis near or just to the south of the Florida Keys.
- Ridge builds back across the state for the weekend, with a return of much warmer and drier conditions.
1108 AM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Thunderstorms capable of producing damaging wind and localized flooding are expected this afternoon and evening ahead of a cold front.
A weak upper level trough pushes into the region on Thursday. This trough allows sub tropical moisture to advect inland which increases the precipitable water levels to above 1. The forcing with the upper trough and the increase in mid level moisture should lead to scattered afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. The upper level trough fills in over the Southeast U.
Will maintain the low POPs in this area to cover this potential.
Cloudiness will continue to increase through the overnight hours as a trough approaches though we should remain dry through the overnight hours barring an isolated shower this evening. A weak upper level trough pushes into the region on Thursday. This trough allows sub tropical moisture to advect inland which increases the precipitable water levels to above 1. The forcing with the upper trough and the increase in mid level moisture should lead to scattered afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. The upper level trough fills in over the Southeast U.
1047 PM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Shower and thunderstorm activity will come to an end tonight with the passage of a cold front.
629 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 (Tonight through Thursday night) The mid-level ridge will continue to be the driving force for the weather of Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley as it moves eastward. As for the low temperatures, for tonight, the lows are generally expected to be in the 70s with a few places in the 80s. However tomorrow night, the low temperatures for most of the Middle and Lower Rio Grande Valley will be in the 80s, while the rest of the area will be in the 70s.
High pressure ridging to the south maintains W-SW flow over the area favoring continued warm and humid conditions featuring morning coastal showers and storms migrating inland where highest rain chances will exist during the afternoon before gradually diminishing through the evening. Highs remain mainly in the lower to mid 90s, with lows in the 70s. Florida remains situated between upper ridging south and west of Florida, while upper troughing persists north of the area. On the surface, high pressure ridges south of Florida and into the central Gulf of Mexico.
Tomorrow's rain chances will be focused mainly in the southern half of the area, closer to the surface front/trough that will be moving through tonight. Slightly cooler tomorrow, but still near normal temperatures. Discussion: A weak upper level trough and associated cold front will swing down from the northwest and into our area this evening. This is as forcing becomes more favorable with the arrival of the trough.
243 PM PDT Wed Jun 26 2024 A passing cold front continues to bring showers and thunderstorms through Thursday.
746 PM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Shower and thunderstorm activity will come to an end tonight with the passage of a cold front.
952 PM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Weak high pressure remains over the area tonight with surface winds decreasing.
A cold front is marching across the northeast and drapes back to the southwest into the Lower Mississippi Valley. This along with an accompanying upper level trough is helping to push a ridge out across the Atlantic further east. A weak ridge axis will extend westward from the western Atlantic across the Straits of Florida overnight through Thursday morning, with light to gentle southwest to west breezes prevailing over the Keys waters.
755 PM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024 A cold front moves southeast across the area this evening and early tonight.
There has already been new development this evening over central MS along the front and near a mid-level trough axis. As the mid-level trough axis moves east overnight, further convective development is expected toward sunrise over our Panhandle and Wiregrass counties, as well as over the Gulf waters.
A near record amount of moisture for the date was observed in the BOI 00Z sounding, which is also evidenced by the low-mid 60s dewpoints throughout the Treasure Valley. A cold front is entering eastern Oregon and will bring much drier air and cooler temperatures later this evening. Cooler temps on Thursday reduce high density altitude concerns.
627 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 (This afternoon through Thursday night) WV imagery shows the upper ridge centered over New Mexico/northern Chihuahua this afternoon, resulting in a warm afternoon of triple- digit highs most locations. Convection that developed overnight has mostly diminished, but the HRRR redevelops convection early this afternoon over the higher terrain west of the Pecos, where it's needed most. Overnight, an upper trough is forecast to make landfall in the PacNW, and will begin flattening the ridge Thursday. This portends good news for those who don't like the heat, as thicknesses will come down a notch, and highs will be a degree or so cooler than today's. East-southeasterly upslope flow will once again develop convection over the higher terrain, and this will continue into the evening hours.
An upper level trough will continue to amplify as it translates southeastward across the north central Gulf Coast region tonight with the main trough axis looking to remain oriented across our forecast area through the day Thursday. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms should linger into the evening, with another potential uptick in convective coverage late tonight into Thursday morning, especially near the coast and into southeast MS/southwest AL along the trough axis.
Cooler temperatures and unstable air behind the front today will result in scattered showers and thunderstorms across the area, and gusty afternoon winds. Radar projections now agree that precipitation will wrap around the center of the low, bringing rain to the Continental Divide/Glacier National Park and into the Northern Flathead Valley from this afternoon through Friday morning.
Otherwise, 40-60% chance for storms after 27/18Z through sunset, focusing the highest coverage near the coastal terminals. Weak high pressure remains over the area tonight with surface winds decreasing.
2) Breezy west to northwest winds are expected on Friday behind the cold front, with Lake Wind criteria expected.
Deep layers of moisture remain over the Florida Keys, but a broad region of ridging across Cuba and Hispaniola limited shower formation yesterday across the Florida Straits. The environment will become less favorable for a reverse cloud line today as the low to mid level ridge shifts north, slackening winds to light breezes and shifting winds from southwesterly to southeasterly.
Cool, dry northwest flow as high pressure builds in from the northwest along with increasing subsidence will diminish lingering stratocu through the morning, which should eventually turn into scattered afternoon cumulus. Positioning of the high will support weak warm, moist advection amid mostly clear skies to raise area temperature about 5 degrees above the daily average. Broad ascent may increase mid to high level clouds and even low probability showers Friday night as a warm front approaches.
Surface cold front will push through mid state region as these early morning hours progress.
402 AM EDT Thu Jun 27 2024 Dry and pleasant weather conditions develop today as a high pressure briefly builds in. A cold front across southeast MA and the adjacent coastal waters moves farther offshore today. High pressure expected to dominate our weather tonight and Friday.
A cold front has moved through the region with temperatures notably cooler compared yesterday. Here at the airport, temperatures are 17 degrees cooler than this time last night. A cold front is passing today.
253 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 - Today will be beautiful with highs in the low to mid 70s, low humidity levels, periods of sunshine, and a northeasterly breeze. Cooler conditions can be expected along the lakeshore.
Fairly deep southwesterly flow will be predominant amid a deamplifying upper trough that will eventually be sheared being sandwiched between two prominent upper ridges, one to the south and another over the Southern Plains.
For tonight, surface ridging continues to build into the region and still anticipate cloud cover to break, leading to a mostly clear and calm overnight which would allow temperatures to fall into the 40s most areas. With that said, strength of the low level jet and degree of instability is uncertain, with most guidance indicating very weak instability along with a weaker low level jet, which would lead to mainly showers with isolated thunder. Ensemble guidance shows a variety of scenarios for the track and strength of the upper low as it propagates near the International border, which will have consequences for placement of deformation zone precipitation, cloud cover and ultimately degree of instability as cold front propagates through the region Friday afternoon.
Cool, dry northwest flow will develop as high pressure builds in from the northwest with increasing subsidence diminishes lingering stratocu through the morning, which should eventually turn into scattered afternoon cumulus. Positioning of the high will support weak warm, moist advection amid mostly clear skies to raise area temperature about 5 degrees above the daily average. Broad ascent may increase mid to high level clouds and even low probability showers Friday night as weak perturbations ahead of the main upper level trough axis.
1232 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 (Tonight through Thursday night) The mid-level ridge will continue to be the driving force for the weather of Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley as it moves eastward. As for the low temperatures, for tonight, the lows are generally expected to be in the 70s with a few places in the 80s. However tomorrow night, the low temperatures for most of the Middle and Lower Rio Grande Valley will be in the 80s, while the rest of the area will be in the 70s.
Convection today will favor the higher terrain of northwestern Arizona and the southern Great Basin in the absence of synoptic forcing. As such, the highest threat of flash flooding will remain across northwestern Arizona and the highest threat of damaging wind gusts will be across the southwestern Great Basin.
The upper level ridge continues to keep a grip on west Texas and expands a bit farther east through the next couple of days.
1138 PM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024 - Cooler and less humid air moves back into the area tonight and lasts through early Friday.
(Today through Friday) 500 mb high pressure, initially centered over New Mexico, will ease east into northern Texas during the period while remaining the dominant feature over the BRO CWFA. However, a weak, inverted, mid-level trough slipping under the ridge, combined with precipitable water values increasing to over two inches, will result in isolated to scattered convection over portions of Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley during the daylight hours, with additional convection over the adjacent coastal waters at night.
416 AM EDT Thu Jun 27 2024 High pressure slowly builds across the region late today and into Friday.
(Today through Friday Night) An upper level ridge is over New Mexico which is providing northwest flow over Arkansas. The upper ridge will move east tonight, will be over Arkansas by Friday morning, and will remain in place through Friday night. High pressure and subsidence will keep dry conditions over the state through Friday night. Warm conditions will continue today but warmer conditions are expected Friday as a warm front moves north through the state.
Wind gusts will be stronger today and Friday as a trough quickly progresses east through the northern states. While drier air will allow for 'cooler' overnight lows.
(Today and tonight) First, the heat will continue this afternoon with the upper level ridge almost directly across the area. Outflow boundary from yesterdays convection moved west into central Texas, along with weak northernly flow aloft along the edge of the center of upper level ridge.
348 AM EDT Thu Jun 27 2024 Low pressure and a cold front will push east of the area this morning followed by a secondary cold front crossing this afternoon. High pressure builds in tonight for fair weather Friday.
Cool, dry northwest flow as high pressure builds in from the northwest along with increasing subsidence will diminish lingering stratocu through the morning, which should eventually turn into scattered afternoon cumulus. Positioning of the high will support weak warm, moist advection amid mostly clear skies to raise area temperature about 5 degrees above the daily average. Broad ascent may increase mid to high level clouds and even low probability showers Friday night as weak perturbations ahead of the main upper level trough axis.
(Tonight through Friday night) Key Messages: - Heat Advisory for the Coastal Plains and northern Brush Country this afternoon - Low chances for showers and thunderstorms Friday The mid to upper level ridge will move eastward today and tonight before becoming anchored across the southeast CONUS Friday and expanding horizontally from east to west through the Southern Plains. Our best chances for showers in the short term will be Friday as a weak inverted trough moves through the area. Due to limited moisture and uncertainty on the strength and placement of the inverted trough, have keep pops on the low end between 20-30% across the Coastal Plains, Coastal Bend and Victoria Crossroads. Near normal temperatures are expected to continue today and tomorrow with highs ranging from the low to mid 90s near the coast to near 102 degrees out west.