Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
(This evening through Sunday) High pressure will be moving east today with skies expected to slowly clear through the afternoon. Have adjusted highs a couple of degrees cooler thanks to the lingering low level broken to overcast layer over the state. Highs on Sunday will be in the lower 60s in the north. A few areas in the southeast may see temperatures in the lower 70s before the rain and cloud cover cool the air in the afternoon.
The coast will be cooler with a light onshore flow and marine stratus hugging the coastline for most of the morning before retreating offshore in the afternoon.
It's been an interesting day of weather following the passage of a cold front early this morning. Early morning temperatures in the low 50s cooled quickly to the upper 30s and low 40s after daybreak following the frontal passage, but have warmed back into the mid 40s early this afternoon. Northwesterly winds have taken center stage today, with the highest gusts in the 35-40 mph range.
944 PM EDT Sat Mar 16 2024 A cold front will move southeast across the area tonight, leading to a chance for a few showers. An embedded short will rotate through this broad mid level trough dropping down thru the Great Lakes into the Ohio Valley overnight. An associated surface cold front over Northwest Ohio to push southeast across the region tonight. The highest pops across northeast counties where moisture and forcing are most favorable. Lows tonight will range from the mid 30s northwest to the lower 40s in the southeast. Highs will range from the lower 40s northwest to the lower 50s in the southeast. A secondary mid level short wave will drop down the back side of the upper level trough Sunday night and approach our region late. Lows Sunday night will be in the low to mid 30s.
329 PM MDT Sat Mar 16 2024 - Accumulating snow continues across the higher terrain, especially the southern mountains, tonight into Sunday. - Warmer into the work week, with returning chances for showers by mid week. Upper low which has been situated across the region this week remains in place just to the southwest, and will slightly shift east/northeast tonight. Areas around Pueblo will remain warmer this evening/tonight, with precip likely staying in the form of light rain. Colorado will be in between the upper low to the southwest and a large/deep trough over the central CONUS at the start of the period.
640 PM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024 (This evening through Sunday) A low pressure system will continue sitting across the western U.
Soggy dew points in the lower to mid 70s have remained stable throughout the evening, and when combined with light winds, have made for quite a muggy mid-March evening. Surface analysis shows weak high pressure still extending over South Florida, with a front draped over the northern Gulf. The only question for tonight is whether or not temperatures will be able to radiate down into the lower 70s overnight. From synopsis, high pressure over the western Atlantic will maintain gentle to occasionally moderate southeasterly breezes across the Keys coastal waters through the weekend.
508 PM EDT Sat Mar 16 2024 A warm front will cross the region overnight through early Sunday, with a cold front then crossing late.
1122 PM EDT Sat Mar 16 2024 After a very mild first half of March (warmest on record in some spots), temperatures will drop below normal for the start of the upcoming week as a cold front pushes southeast across the state late tonight and early Sunday. 125 kt jet max and associated positive DPVA will accompany the passage of a cold front into the CWA tonight, supporting a line of rain showers. Rainfall will range from a tenth to a quarter of an inch across the NW Mtns, to just a few hundredths over the Central Ridge and Valley Region and little or nothing across the Middle and Lower Susq Valley. DOD/24 hour max temp drop will range from about 5 deg F across the Lower Susq Valley to nearly 15F cooler across the NW Mtns.
Warm and humid conditions prevail along the Florida Keys on this early Sunday morning, with partly cloudy skies, temperatures in the mid to upper 70s, dewpoints in the lower to mid 70s, and winds on land from the southeast at 5 to 10 mph. Surface analysis depicts weak high pressure over the western Atlantic, with a cold front draped from the Carolinas across north Florida and the northern Gulf of Mexico to the Texas coast. Aloft, low-level ridging is centered over the northern Bahamas, with a mid-level ridge centered over the western Caribbean, and a cutoff low parked over the desert Southwest.
1057 PM MDT Sat Mar 16 2024 - Accumulating snow continues across the higher terrain, especially the southern mountains, tonight into Sunday. - Warmer into the work week, with returning chances for showers by mid week. Upper low which has been situated across the region this week remains in place just to the southwest, and will slightly shift east/northeast tonight. Areas around Pueblo will remain warmer this evening/tonight, with precip likely staying in the form of light rain. Colorado will be in between the upper low to the southwest and a large/deep trough over the central CONUS at the start of the period.
This will help drive a cold front south across our CWA this afternoon and tonight. The rain and associated cloud cover will hold temperatures in the 60s today and the cooler air in the wake of the cold front will send temperatures in the 40s for morning lows.
1009 PM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024 Overall the current forecast remains on track with showers diminishing across southeast Oklahoma and a cold front currently approaching the OK-KS border. A separate wave tracking ESE within the amplifying larger scale eastern CONUS trough will maintain widespread cloud cover overnight while ushering a cold front across the area overnight through early Sunday. (Tomorrow through Saturday) Clouds clear on Sunday with breezy northerly winds and cooler temps area wide. Winds will begin to decrease Sunday night and excellent radiation cooling conditions will allow for widespread low temps into the lower 30s with a hard freeze possible across far NE OK into far NW AR.
1125 PM EDT Sat Mar 16 2024 After a very mild first half of March (warmest on record in some spots), temperatures will drop below normal for the start of the upcoming week as a cold front pushes southeast across the state late tonight and early Sunday. 125 kt jet max and associated positive DPVA will accompany the passage of a cold front into the CWA tonight, supporting a line of rain showers. Rainfall will range from a tenth to a quarter of an inch across the NW Mtns, to just a few hundredths over the Central Ridge and Valley Region and little or nothing across the Middle and Lower Susq Valley. DOD/24 hour max temp drop will range from about 5 deg F across the Lower Susq Valley to nearly 15F cooler across the NW Mtns.
A cold front will approach the northern nature coast late tonight with a band of showers and isolated thunderstorms ahead of the front moving over the region.
137 AM EDT Sun Mar 17 2024 After a very mild first half of March (warmest on record in some spots), temperatures will drop below normal for the start of the upcoming week as a cold front pushes southeast across the state late tonight and early Sunday. 125 kt jet max and associated positive DPVA will accompany the passage of a cold front into the CWA tonight, supporting a line of rain showers. Rainfall will range from a tenth to a quarter of an inch across the NW Mtns, to just a few hundredths over the Central Ridge and Valley Region and little or nothing across the Middle and Lower Susq Valley. DOD/24 hour max temp drop will range from about 5 deg F across the Lower Susq Valley to nearly 15F cooler across the NW Mtns.
1252 AM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024 (This evening through Sunday) A low pressure system will continue sitting across the western U.
1039 PM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024 - Behind this evening's cold front, gradually colder and colder air will infiltrate the area.
208 AM EDT Sun Mar 17 2024 A cold front will move southeast across the area tonight, leading to a chance for a few showers. An embedded short will rotate through this broad mid level trough dropping down thru the Great Lakes into the Ohio Valley overnight. An associated surface cold front over Northwest Ohio to push southeast across the region tonight. The highest pops across northeast counties where moisture and forcing are most favorable. Lows tonight will range from the mid 30s northwest to the lower 40s in the southeast. Highs will range from the lower 40s northwest to the lower 50s in the southeast. A secondary mid level short wave will drop down the back side of the upper level trough Sunday night and approach our region late. Lows Sunday night will be in the low to mid 30s.
218 AM EDT Sun Mar 17 2024 Weak cold front moves east, along the Appalachians early this morning.
235 PM EDT Fri May 30 2025 Another low pressure system with rain moves up the east coast Tonight into tomorrow.
Discussion: The cold front is now along the TN/NC state line moving eastward into the Carolinas with breezy northwest winds and drier air arriving across the region. With troughing across the area, slightly below normal temperatures are expected on Saturday, especially across northeastern sections of the forecast area closer to the trough axis.
315 PM EDT Fri May 30 2025 Another low pressure system with rain moves up the east coast tonight into Saturday.
A slow-moving cold front is pushing south across the local area this morning, with areas of precipitation in its vicinity. Kovacik (Friday through Saturday) At the time of writing, some showers and thunderstorms are moving through portions of NE Texas into SE Arkansas along a cold front. This cold front will continue to push to the southeast through the day Friday, with the rain gradually dissipating by midday. The frontal passage, in conjunction with clear skies and light surface winds, will allow for a slightly cooler night.
- Noticeably warmer temperatures are expected through the weekend.
1235 PM CDT Fri May 30 2025 (Today through Saturday) A cold front is expected to make its way from Central Texas (where it is currently located today) into Deep South Texas tomorrow and stall, which will bring a chance of showers and thunderstorms to the area. Temperatures are expected to be cooler tomorrow than they will be today; highs today are expected to be in the mid 90s, but will drop to the lower 90s tomorrow as the cold front arrives and cloud cover across the area increases.
A cold front is currently pushing through NW Georgia as I sit down to write this. These conditions have so far kept storms from reaching severe thresholds, but as the cold front moves into a more favorable environment this afternoon we're expecting those storms to rapidly intensify. Dry air and cooler temperatures are expected to filter in for Saturday giving us a beautiful start to the weekend. Highs tomorrow will be in the low to mid 80s with plenty of sunshine.
1202 PM CDT Fri May 30 2025 (Rest of Today) A surface cold front continues to progress over north-central Alabama and southern middle Tennessee at the time of this writing. Lastly, highs are still forecast to reach the lower to mid 70s for most locations; but, areas over northeast Alabama and portions of southern middle Tennessee (higher elevations) could be a bit cooler, in the upper 60s to lower 70s.
The rain and storms in our area are north of the cold front which is moving its way toward the Coast. Saturday through Friday: High pressure and drier air will filter into the region for the weekend (dew points into the 50s and 60s). The pattern is a little tricky with strong ridging over the Northern Rockies, a cutoff low near the Baja Peninsula, and troughing over the US East Coast.
An upper level trough with an attending cold front will approach the region late tonight. Low temperatures tonight will be in the low to mid 60s.
However, mid- level lapse rates are only as high as 6 C/km and 0-6km bulk shear on the southwest flank of the larger trough over the OH River Valley is limited vertical growth of these thunderstorms. The frontal boundary will continue to push southeast offshore through the evening hours and things will gradually dry out into Saturday as a weak high pressure system moves overhead.
Saturday, high pressure starts to develop over the state, with mostly clear skies expected. Temperatures will warm into the low to mid 80s, a degree or two below normal for this time of year, though with northerly flow prevailing with dry air advected into the state, RH values will be much lower, in the 40s through the afternoon.
Updated at 143 PM CDT Fri May 30 2025 - Scattered storms expected in the higher terrain through the weekend (30-40% chances). Temperatures have been much cooler behind a cold front and due to clouds with highs generally in the 60s/70s. The majority of the forecast area will remain dry through the evening, however, a few storms are still anticipated near the cold front this afternoon in and around the Presidio Valley. Our upper pattern transitions slightly Saturday with strong NW flow shifting north and southerly flow developing over the Big Bend as another trough just off Baja moves toward us.
143 PM PDT Fri May 30 2025 An area of low pressure to the south will bring cloudier conditions and a chance for showers and thunderstorms this weekend.
The period will begin with a deep, closed, stacked low pressure system over southern Quebec, and an upper trough extending southward over the eastern CONUS.
With the warmer conditions, increasing instability Saturday afternoon will aid in severe potentials developing across northeast Oklahoma into the evening hours.
- Hot temperatures, with highs around 90 degrees, are expected on Saturday as high pressure builds in over the Northern Rockies.
Aside from that will see mostly sunny skies and warmer daytime temps. High temperatures will be warmer but still a few degrees below normal.
Some of the low clouds remain, but they have been noticeably clearing over the last hour. Upper level ridging is starting to amplify to our west between a closed low over the Baja Peninsula and a positively tilted trough draped over the Midwest. This ridge will briefly settle atop the Panhandles this weekend, but northwest flow will be maintained for today. For this reason, we can't rule out a stray shower or storm clipping the far western Panhandles moving off the higher terrain of NM this afternoon- evening, but has less than a 15% chance of occurring.
A few lingering showers and general thunderstorms, mainly along and southeast of the I-65 corridor, will move offshore by mid evening as a cold front passes through the area.
(Tonight through Saturday night) A cold front is expected to approach the northern part of Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley late tonight to around early tomorrow morning. The highs for tomorrow are expected to be mostly in the low to mid 90s. As for the low temperatures, they are currently expected to be in the 70s.
11 AM EDT observations showed temperatures in the mid 80s across the Lower and Middle Keys, and the upper 80s in the Upper Keys. A cold front currently approaching the Southeast U. will erode the ridge that has been in place for the last several days.
- Warmer weather arrives on Saturday with a few isolated thunderstorms possible Saturday afternoon through Saturday night.
924 AM PDT Fri May 30 2025 Several degrees warmer today for inland areas with the greatest warming for the inland valleys and inland Orange County. A weak upper level low pressure system off the Baja coast will draw some tropical moisture northward into the area for the weekend.
A fairly strong short wave will drop south from Ontario this afternoon as the deep long wave trough slowly moves eastward. 0 C/km and lift front the approaching cold front all point toward precipitation chances increasing this afternoon. Once the cold front passes later this afternoon/early evening, precipitation chances will decrease and skies will clear. - Dry and seasonably cool temperatures this weekend Air behind the cold front cools off considerably from 10C this afternoon to around 3C by Saturday morning.
(Rest of This Afternoon and Tonight) The surface cold front has moved just southeast of our local forecast area this afternoon and clouds have thinned for most locations. Current temperatures are generally in the lower to mid 70s and, with the passage of the cold front, dew points have fallen into the 50s.
240 PM MDT Fri May 30 2025 - Warmer temperatures are forecast to return late over the weekend. Looking at convective-allowing model (CAM) soundings, CAPE will be very limited with a a nearly inverted-V sounding in the lowest 3km. Overnight lows are expected to be in the low 50s tonight. Tomorrow could be a tad cooler than today with highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s and overnight lows in the upper 40s to lower 50s.
(Through Saturday) An unstable airmass is in place across the region this afternoon ahead of an approaching cold front. Temperatures won't be significantly cooler, but dewpoints will be quite a bit lower, helping to keep the humidity much more pleasant.
(This evening through Saturday Night) A weak cold front has been progressing through the region this morning bringing with it showers and isolated strong (near severe) thunderstorms, and is expected to eventually stall off the coast tonight. Temperatures today have been cooled thanking to the increased cloud cover and scattered precipitation with high temperatures likely staying in the low to mid 80s. Saturday will be slightly warmer thanks to the lower rain coverage with high temperatures rising into the mid to upper 80s, but overnight lows will be similar to tonight's.
Based on overnight trends, the expectation is that there could be visibility reductions down to a few miles specifically in the lower lying areas. After a cooler last few days, temperatures will climb back into the upper 70s to lower 80s or closer to seasonal normal (lower 80s) to end the work week.
11 AM EDT observations showed temperatures in the mid 80s across the Lower and Middle Keys, and the upper 80s in the Upper Keys. A cold front currently approaching the Southeast U. will erode the ridge that has been in place for the last several days. TAFs do not reflect any activity due to the low probability, but amendments will be made if conditions change.
1135 AM MDT Fri May 30 2025 - Warmer temperatures and drier conditions will persist through the weekend.
(Rest of Today) A surface cold front continues to progress over north-central Alabama and southern middle Tennessee at the time of this writing. Lastly, highs are still forecast to reach the lower to mid 70s for most locations; but, areas over northeast Alabama and portions of southern middle Tennessee (higher elevations) could be a bit cooler, in the upper 60s to lower 70s.
As we move into the evening hours on the back side of the front we should see a dramatic decrease in shower and storm coverage, but cannot completely rule out a few rogue showers associated with the wrap around moisture and instability as the trough/low moves up into the the New England Region.
230 PM CDT Fri May 30 2025 Updated at 229 PM CDT Fri May 30 2025 - Dry weather is expected this weekend behind a cold front. Highs will be in the low 80s.
Highs return to near normal in the lower 80s. This Morning: An upper-level trough is departing to the east of the area this morning, with isolated showers coming to an end behind the latest system. This Afternoon-Tonight: As the upper level trough continues to translate eastward today, a ridge begins to shift east over the central CONUS. Highs this afternoon reach into the lower to middle 70s. For tonight, clear skies give way to cooler lows in the lower to middle 50s.
Warm and mainly dry conditions are expected through Saturday, with just a few isolated light showers over the higher terrain.
A high amplitude trough over the Great Lakes and Eastern U. SPC has maintained a Marginal Risk for severe storms focused east of the outlook area across portions of eastern Wisconsin and northern Illinois, in the vicinity of a backdoor cold front. This Weekend: A backdoor cold front will move into the region from the northeast on Saturday, providing a focus for isolated showers and storms (~15%).
Saturday morning, the greatest chance for showers will remain along the immediate coastline and the western Gulf waters, though confidence in this is low given the low PoPs populated from the NBM (20-30% chance).
High pressure over the region will bring warmer and drier conditions.
Any shower may generate gusty winds which has the low (but not zero) potential of localized blowing dust resulting in visibility reductions.
630 PM CDT Fri May 30 2025 (Tonight through Saturday night) A cold front is expected to approach the northern part of Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley late tonight to around early tomorrow morning. The highs for tomorrow are expected to be mostly in the low to mid 90s. As for the low temperatures, they are currently expected to be in the 70s.
657 PM MDT Fri May 30 2025 - Warmer temperatures and drier conditions will persist through the weekend. - Cooler and wetter weather returns for the start of the work week. Current radar shows a few scattered storms over the high terrain. Temperatures on Saturday will be a few degrees cooler compared to Friday, but still average for the end of May. Being on the eastern fringe of the ridge will also help keep conditions dry, however cannot rule out an isolated high terrain storm or two as there is a small amount of mid-level moisture over the mountains.
Much quieter weather is (finally) ahead for tonight as a much drier and more pleasant airmass filters quickly southward behind a cold front. A cold front is currently pushing through NW Georgia as I sit down to write this. These conditions have so far kept storms from reaching severe thresholds, but as the cold front moves into a more favorable environment this afternoon we're expecting those storms to rapidly intensify. Dry air and cooler temperatures are expected to filter in for Saturday giving us a beautiful start to the weekend. Highs tomorrow will be in the low to mid 80s with plenty of sunshine.
Around 20Z storms started to develop in far northeast WI/southern Upper MI just ahead of a cold front, and in association with where marginal instability (~600 J/kg) was able to build as temperatures reached the low to mid 70s this afternoon. These storms were tracking south, but its unclear how well they will hold together as temperatures are a little cooler (in the 60s) and instability lowers.
503 PM MDT Fri May 30 2025 - Warmer temperatures are forecast to return late over the weekend. Looking at convective-allowing model (CAM) soundings, CAPE will be very limited with a a nearly inverted-V sounding in the lowest 3km. Overnight lows are expected to be in the low 50s tonight. Tomorrow could be a tad cooler than today with highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s and overnight lows in the upper 40s to lower 50s.
627 PM CDT Fri May 30 2025 (Rest of This Afternoon and Tonight) The surface cold front has moved just southeast of our local forecast area this afternoon and clouds have thinned for most locations. Current temperatures are generally in the lower to mid 70s and, with the passage of the cold front, dew points have fallen into the 50s.
634 PM EDT Fri May 30 2025 Another low pressure system with rain moves up the east coast tonight into Saturday.
531 PM CDT Fri May 30 2025 (This evening through Saturday Night) A weak cold front has been progressing through the region this morning bringing with it showers and isolated strong (near severe) thunderstorms, and is expected to eventually stall off the coast tonight. Temperatures today have been cooled thanking to the increased cloud cover and scattered precipitation with high temperatures likely staying in the low to mid 80s. Saturday will be slightly warmer thanks to the lower rain coverage with high temperatures rising into the mid to upper 80s, but overnight lows will be similar to tonight's.
652 PM CDT Fri May 30 2025 Updated at 645 PM CDT Fri May 30 2025 - Dry weather is expected this weekend behind a cold front. Highs will be in the low 80s.