Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
602 PM CST Wed Jan 24 2024 - Drizzle, freezing drizzle, mist, & fog continue into this weekend. Low stratus and near-constant mist/fog will continue with plenty of low-level moisture from above-freezing temperatures melting the surrounding snowpack, and a stagnant airmass with the Upper Midwest stuck in the weak flow regime between a building high over the intermountain west & a low tracking up the lower Mississippi & Ohio River valleys. Slick roads and surface will also be redevelop tonight & Thursday with ground temperatures still below freezing, so plan on a slick & slow commute each morning. Heavier mist and accumulating drizzle looks likely Thursday as the precipitation shield from the low to our south slides over southern Minnesota & western Wisconsin.
- Much warmer temperatures (10-15 degrees above normal) expected for next work week.
Drizzle may persist in the wake of this low as some low-level forcing lingers. Our next low pressure system arrives Thursday evening (right new sunset), once again bringing rain in from south to north. The trough aloft amplifies as it lifts through Illinois, resulting in a period of moderate to heavy rain extending from roughly Hillsdale to Lafayette where rain in excess of 1/2 inch is expected. A brief break in the rain is favored Friday, though a lingering thermal gradient and trough aloft over Michigan poses a non-zero threat for precipitation toward the Michigan state line.
(Today through Friday Night) A rather active short term period continues thanks to an upper level trough over the area allowing multiple disturbance to pass through. Severe weather chances are expected to remain on the low end with the main concern being isolated flash flooding due to the heavy rainfall on already saturated grounds. High temperatures are expected to be in the lower 50s to the upper 60s through the period with overnight lows in the upper 30s to lower 50s.
1017 PM MST Wed Jan 24 2024 - Mountain snow returns Thursday with the potential for 3 to 6 inches of accumulation in the high country through Friday. A fairly weak upper-level trough will push into Wyoming tomorrow, bringing some light mountain snow and perhaps some flakes to southeast Wyoming. The bulk of the moisture with this trough will be well to the south with the low pressure center in northern New Mexico. Besides snow chances, this trough will bring cooler temperatures to the CWA on Friday. Temperatures behind this weak front will be about 5 to 10 degrees cooler compared to Thursday. Deterministic models begin to build an upper level ridge over the Intermountain-West this weekend.
An upper-trough centered across west Texas is forecast to quickly push east across the region today allowing for rapid clearing of precipitation with its passing. However, ahead of the trough, another round of showers and isolated thunderstorms could bring an additional inch of rain to parts of the region within the ongoing Flood Watch near daybreak.
1107 PM CST Wed Jan 24 2024 (This evening through Thursday) A trough passing across northwest Texas will combine with ample moisture across the region this evening.
However, currently watching what will be the FINAL round of rain for the region, developing ahead of an upper trough now entering far W TX, which will translate E across the Srn Plains overnight and through the region after daybreak Thursday. The short term progs remain in good agreement with the rains becoming more widespread as it spreads N near and atop the stationary front by and after 06Z, before much drier air begins to entrain E as the trough axis enters the region.
With nothing to push out this low level moisture with just a weak wave passing overhead, will keep headlines in place through noon today. As the center of the high shifts south, we get into weak southwesterlies, which theoretically should help with mixing. CAMS support fog lingering tonight and even into Friday night, so there is some question as to how well this southwest component will dry us out, especially since we have a lot of wet snow sitting around at a temperature close to freezing.
Fair and warmer weather arrives for the weekend and persists into next work week. In similar fashion to the most recent weather systems, many of our high elevation areas are still sitting with both temperatures and dewpoints sitting near or above freezing. The higher QPF, combined with better temperature profiles for the higher elevations of the Kaibab Plateau and Chuskas resulted in higher snowfall amounts for those areas with snowfall amounts ranging from ~1-7 inches. By Friday afternoon, fair, warmer weather will start to take over as ridging builds into the region. The dry, warm weather becomes the main subject over the weekend into next work week as ridging persist.
1053 PM CST Wed Jan 24 2024 (This evening through Thursday night) Upper level circulation over the South Plains of Texas will continue to weaken into an open trough as it moves across the Texas Panhandle this evening. Dense fog is expected to develop across much of the Panhandles again this evening as south and southeast surface winds keep the low level moisture across the region.
One more mid lvl shortwv trof wl traverse the FA later tngt into Thu, bringing another round of rain/embedded storms to most locations. Weak ridging wl briefly build into AR into Fri resulting in drier conds.
Showers will finally exit the mid state from west to east Thursday evening as a surface cold front crosses the area.
The wet pattern continues with another round of light to moderate rain expected this evening into tonight as the next in a series of upper level troughs moves from the Southern Plains into the Midwest. 5" with the highest amounts across the northwest. Highs today will vary from the mid 50s in the southeast to the mid 40s in the northwest with cooler temperatures tonight as lows fall into the mid 30s to near 40.
Some patchy freezing drizzle late tonight and Thursday morning and from Thursday night through Friday morning. - Areas to widespread dense fog expected on the higher elevations of southeast Minnesota and northeast Iowa and on the ridge tops from late this evening into Thursday morning and from Thursday evening into Friday morning.
1208 AM EST Thu Jan 25 2024 No major forecast changes tonight as South Florida remains in the east-southeasterly wind flow on the periphery of deep-layered high pressure centered over the Atlantic.
Water vapor imagery highlights a long wave trough progressing east into the Great Plains. The base of this trough bifurcates into two separate jets at the exit of the axis. We expanded the Small Craft Advisory to include Hawk Channel west of the Seven Mile Bridge. By morning, most Reef locations should see diminished breezes, supported by the falling low level heights on the 00Z FL RAOBs indicating the ridge is losing its grip. A large high pressure system centered between the Carolinas and Bermuda will continue to slide steadily east to southeast over the next several days. East to southeast breezes will slacken tonight through Friday as the high pushes towards the central North Atlantic.
However, lower confidence in some patchy fog developing overnight, leading the high-end MVFR visibility for LEE/MCO/ISM/SFB.
527 AM CST Thu Jan 25 2024 (Today through Friday Night) A rather active short term period continues thanks to an upper level trough over the area allowing multiple disturbance to pass through. Severe weather chances are expected to remain on the low end with the main concern being isolated flash flooding due to the heavy rainfall on already saturated grounds. High temperatures are expected to be in the lower 50s to the upper 60s through the period with overnight lows in the upper 30s to lower 50s.
An upper level ridge of high pressure over the western Atlantic is nearly stationary and will partially block weather systems inbound from the central CONUS. This warmth will also feed instability for heavier intensity rainfall, especially to our south and west around the periphery of the upper level ridge. Upslope drizzle and light rain should be common throughout the day vicinity of the Blue Ridge. So far the low temperature in Danville has not gone under 60 degrees. A guiding mid-level ridge will ward off the strongest forcing at the center of the low, shunting it towards the OH Valley and Great Lakes Region.
- Freezing fog and/or light freezing drizzle this morning may leave slick spots on roads and surfaces. Additionally, temperatures are hovering at or slightly below freezing this morning. Freezing fog will be possible along with some light freezing drizzle. A light glaze of ice from freezing fog and/or drizzle cannot be entirely ruled out and may result in slick roads and surfaces. Temperatures will fall into the 20s and 30s overnight, opening the door for freezing fog to impact the area once again. Additionally, light drizzle/freezing drizzle cannot be entirely ruled out. Dry conditions are expected as a ridge sets up over the central and western portions of the nation. Temperatures are hovering right around the freezing mark, which may result in a light glaze of ice on surfaces due to freezing fog.
546 AM CST Thu Jan 25 2024 (Today through Friday) Key Messages: - Dry conditions with mostly to partly cloudy skies - Fog is possible over much of South Texas tonight - A Coastal Flood Advisory and High Rip Current Risk in Effect Today Synopsis: The mid-level trough that has provided support for yesterday's convection will quickly lift northeast today.
522 AM CST Thu Jan 25 2024 (Today and tonight) After another foggy and cloudy start to the day, we may see sunshine this afternoon with warmer temperatures. Short wave ridging will move overhead in the wake of a departing short wave trough and in advance of the next short wave trough currently moving through the Intermountain West. Mid and upper level winds will quickly back to the southwest this evening in advance of the aforementioned trough as a strong jet streak enters the base of the trough. Weak surface pressure troughing in eastern New Mexico coupled with surface cyclogenesis in southeastern Colorado will keep surface winds out of the southwest today.
340 AM MST Thu Jan 25 2024 - Dense freezing fog this morning generally east of Highway 25. - Dense freezing fog will likely return to areas generally east of Highway 27 tonight.
(Today and tonight) As of 3AM, water vapor imagery shows the upper trough entering western Oklahoma and western north Texas and radar shows a small area of showers (coincident with the upper low) drifting into western Oklahoma. The upper trough, along with rain chances, exit our FA by mid-morning.
Will note that some areas are close to freezing, and that being aware of the temperature is important as light ice accumulations will be possible, especially on elevated surfaces. While modes are in pretty good agreement with the center of the low placement, there is still a great discrepancy as to how much cold air does or doesn't make it to the Panhandles. Colder solutions favor a wet snow, that might even have accumulations, with the warmer solutions continuing to provide just rain.
- Freezing fog and/or light freezing drizzle this morning may leave slick spots on roads and surfaces. Additionally, temperatures are hovering at or slightly below freezing this morning. Freezing fog will be possible along with some light freezing drizzle. A light glaze of ice from freezing fog and/or drizzle cannot be entirely ruled out and may result in slick roads and surfaces. Temperatures will fall into the 20s and 30s overnight, opening the door for freezing fog to impact the area once again. Additionally, light drizzle/freezing drizzle cannot be entirely ruled out. Dry conditions are expected as a ridge sets up over the central and western portions of the nation. There will be a chance of some light freezing drizzle at both terminals overnight, which may leave a light glaze on surfaces.
While the possibility for freezing rain still exists in our valleys, models suggest very slight chances and therefore we have opted to omit it from the forecast, however it is not out of the realm of possibilities.
(Today and tonight) After another foggy and cloudy start to the day, we may see sunshine this afternoon with warmer temperatures. Short wave ridging will move overhead in the wake of a departing short wave trough and in advance of the next short wave trough currently moving through the Intermountain West. Mid and upper level winds will quickly back to the southwest this evening in advance of the aforementioned trough as a strong jet streak enters the base of the trough. Weak surface pressure troughing in eastern New Mexico coupled with surface cyclogenesis in southeastern Colorado will keep surface winds out of the southwest today.
(Today and tonight) Drier conditions develop today with temperatures struggling to reach the upper 50s to lower 60s (cooler in the region's peaks) in wake of yesterday's frontal passage.
Some slick conditions are possible in subfreezing areas. Low pressure will track northeast across the Ohio Valley today.
214 AM MST Thu Jan 25 2024 Satellite imagery shows a short wave ridge moving over our area at this time, but with increasing clouds from the west. The short wave ridge axis will shift east today and quickly be replaced by backing mid level flow in our west ahead of an approaching split trough. The best forcing with this split trough will miss us to the south, but our area will see some weak forcing along with orographic effects in the late afternoon and early evening. This looks like a brief 1-2" snow in the high country, with a 80% chance of at least 1" but only 25% chance of reaching 3". The northern branch of the split trough will track over us Friday, but with little moisture and downslope flow it will remain dry across our area.
We'll see some sunshine by afternoon, especially across southern and southwest portions of the forecast area, along with warmer temperatures. An upper level trough will approach from the west tonight, bringing an increase in cloud cover and a slight chance for some showers across the Big Country late tonight. Temperatures will be a little warmer tonight, with overnight lows in the mid and upper 40s.
Nonetheless, storm motion remains relatively quick which will mitigate the potential for additional flash flooding, though so far the highest totals in the past few hours range from 2-3" and are concentrated along the coast, away from the areas of highest rainfall from the past 48 hours. Rain chances return to the forecast on Friday with the passage of a midlevel trough and associated surface boundary, which will trigger scattered showers and storms in the afternoon with more widespread activity arriving with the passage of the boundary in the evening.
Perhaps this could bring some pockets of freezing drizzle or flurries this morning. The weak wave this morning could provide for some slightly cooler, yet still mild, temperatures today. This could bring pockets of freezing drizzle or snow flurries.
KAMX is still detecting isolated showers moving over the Lower and Middle Keys, as well as in the Straits of Florida. High pressure centered near Bermuda has maintained a tightened gradient across the region, and marine observation platforms are recording winds of 15 to 20 knots along the Reef. Temperatures have remained well above normal overnight, and have only dropped into the lower 70s along the island chain. Dew points are in the lower 70s, making for an unusually muggy late January morning. The aforementioned high pressure in the western North Atlantic will creep to the east to southeast during the day today, allowing for winds to drop a few knots.
329 AM MST Thu Jan 25 2024 Freezing fog has again developed over the region, this time mostly confined to the river valleys. Ensembles continue to show dry conditions and warmer temperatures heading into the upcoming weekend. The outlook for the beginning of February is suggesting the potential for colder and more unsettled weather with a trof replacing the ridge over the west.
512 AM CST Thu Jan 25 2024 (Today and tonight) As of 3AM, water vapor imagery shows the upper trough entering western Oklahoma and western north Texas and radar shows a small area of showers (coincident with the upper low) drifting into western Oklahoma. The upper trough, along with rain chances, exit our FA by mid-morning.
404 AM MST Thu Jan 25 2024 - Mountain snow returns today w/ the potential for 3 to 6 inches of accumulation in the high country through Friday. Upper-level troughing should remain anchored over the central CONUS, although the system will remain quite fragmented and out-of-phase with the bulk of upper- level energy still split between the northern & southern streams over the next couple of days. Expect the potential for 3-6 inches of new snow accumulation for the Snowy and Sierra Madres, though the lower elevations should only see a few tenths of an inch. No impactful weather expected along/east of I-25 with daytime highs expected to remain in the 40s, even in the wake of the weak cold frontal passage on Friday.
(Today through Friday) Key Messages: - Dry conditions with mostly to partly cloudy skies - Fog is possible over much of South Texas tonight - A Coastal Flood Advisory and High Rip Current Risk in Effect Today Synopsis: The mid-level trough that has provided support for yesterday's convection will quickly lift northeast today.
431 AM MST Thu Jan 25 2024 - Mountain snow returns today w/ the potential for 3 to 6 inches of accumulation in the high country through Friday. Upper-level troughing should remain anchored over the central CONUS, although the system will remain quite fragmented and out-of-phase with the bulk of upper- level energy still split between the northern & southern streams over the next couple of days. Expect the potential for 3-6 inches of new snow accumulation for the Snowy and Sierra Madres, though the lower elevations should only see a few tenths of an inch. No impactful weather expected along/east of I-25 with daytime highs expected to remain in the 40s, even in the wake of the weak cold frontal passage on Friday.
High temperatures will climb into the lower 60s this afternoon.
Surface wetbulb temperatures are a couple degrees above freezing in those areas, no impacts to travel are expected. Light winds, wet ground, and dewpoints hovering around the freezing mark are likely to contribute to areas of dense fog once again tonight into Friday morning, and another Dense Fog Advisory has been issued.
1140 AM CST Thu Jan 25 2024 (Today through Friday) Key Messages: - Dry conditions with mostly to partly cloudy skies - Fog is possible over much of South Texas tonight - A Coastal Flood Advisory and High Rip Current Risk in Effect Today Synopsis: The mid-level trough that has provided support for yesterday's convection will quickly lift northeast today.
(Tonight through Friday night) Key Message: -Cold front to move through Friday night. -Patchy to areas of fog both tonight and Friday night A mid-level trough developing today over the Great Basin and High Plains will dig and move east through Texas in the short term period. This will bring a cold front through Deep South Texas on Friday night. While most of the forecast will remain dry, we could see a few coastal showers tonight thanks to a weak coastal trough, but chances remain between 15 and 20 percent. Warmer conditions are expected Friday ahead of tomorrow nights cold front with highs in the mid to upper 70s. Portions of the mid Valley could reach the low 80s.
Highs this afternoon will also be warmer and range from the mid 50s to lower 60s. Coverage of precipitation is expected to increase during the day (especially in the afternoon) as the upper trough approaches.
- Freezing fog and/or light freezing drizzle this morning may leave slick spots on roads and surfaces. Additionally, temperatures are hovering at or slightly below freezing this morning. Freezing fog will be possible along with some light freezing drizzle. A light glaze of ice from freezing fog and/or drizzle cannot be entirely ruled out and may result in slick roads and surfaces. Temperatures will fall into the 20s and 30s overnight, opening the door for freezing fog to impact the area once again. Additionally, light drizzle/freezing drizzle cannot be entirely ruled out. Dry conditions are expected as a ridge sets up over the central and western portions of the nation.
especially for areas south of the big bridge. Lack of any cold air source suggests the nocturnal temperature response will be a limited one, but do expect temperatures to fall to near/just below freezing, especially across interior regions. Some of that mixed precipitation will likely include some light freezing rain/drizzle, again especially across the interior regions. A cutoff upper level low then crawls across the region Friday night perhaps leading to a few rain or snow showers.
1129 AM CST Thu Jan 25 2024 (Today and tonight) After another foggy and cloudy start to the day, we may see sunshine this afternoon with warmer temperatures. Short wave ridging will move overhead in the wake of a departing short wave trough and in advance of the next short wave trough currently moving through the Intermountain West. Mid and upper level winds will quickly back to the southwest this evening in advance of the aforementioned trough as a strong jet streak enters the base of the trough. Weak surface pressure troughing in eastern New Mexico coupled with surface cyclogenesis in southeastern Colorado will keep surface winds out of the southwest today.
Locations with sun will warm into the upper 60s and 70s while the area under the low clouds may only top out in the upper 50s or low 60s. While one upper level disturbance has exited to the northeast into the Ozarks region, another upper level low system is beginning to take shape and will move into/across North Texas on Friday.
The circulation around this low will help to pull low level moisture back into the Panhandles. This low level moisture is expected to help bring areas of dense fog to the Panhandles again, so will issue a dense fog advisory with this forecast. Upper level trough will move across the southern Rockies and it will develop into a cutoff low as it moves from New Mexico into western Texas by mid day Friday. But, if the cold core of the upper low moves over the Panhandles just at the right time (from late afternoon into the early evening), then we could see some snow.
- Mild and dry A split flow pattern continues today with the forecast area between an upper ridge to the north and couple of troughs in the southern stream. In addition to the low vsby, 1/4mile or less, frosty/slippery road conditions are possible.
1024 AM MST Thu Jan 25 2024 - Mountain snow returns today w/ the potential for 3 to 6 inches of accumulation in the high country through Friday. Upper-level troughing should remain anchored over the central CONUS, although the system will remain quite fragmented and out-of-phase with the bulk of upper- level energy still split between the northern & southern streams over the next couple of days. Expect the potential for 3-6 inches of new snow accumulation for the Snowy and Sierra Madres, though the lower elevations should only see a few tenths of an inch. No impactful weather expected along/east of I-25 with daytime highs expected to remain in the 40s, even in the wake of the weak cold frontal passage on Friday.
The global/Hi-res models are indicating a upper level short wave trough over the Inter- Mountain West moving east-southeast and amplifying into an compact closed low over the Southern Plains by Friday afternoon. The highest chance of rain will across the Big Country. (Friday night through next Thursday) By Friday night, the upper level low will be moving east through northwest Texas, clipping the northern Big Country area. Showers and some thunderstorms associated with this low are expected to affect mainly the Big Country, east of Sweetwater.