Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Rain and snow will return tonight into Saturday morning as a low pressure system moves through the Ohio Valley. Otherwise, the low clouds and fog will dissipate through mid to late morning, leaving partly cloudy skies as we head into this afternoon. Will thus trend the forecast toward the HREF mean and spread pcpn in from the northwest mainly after midnight and have the highest pops running from northwest to southeast across our area. This will initially limit snow accumulations to mainly grassy and elevated surfaces, but some slick spots may begin to develop on roadways Saturday morning as air temperatures fall quickly below freezing. By daybreak Saturday, temperatures will range from the lower 20s in our northwest to around 30 degrees in our far south.
522 AM CST Fri Feb 23 2024 (Today through Saturday) Fog and dense fog are settling in across the lower valley and across the lower Texas coast ahead of the cold front, expected to arrive by daybreak, but potentially actually arriving a couple of hours ahead of time, with MFE already northwesterly and clearing at 230 AM. Aside from the foggy and humid start, the short term period stays relatively quiet and gets rather comfortable with high pressure building today and slipping east through Saturday.
(Friday through Saturday) Northerly winds will prevail across the region through at least Saturday afternoon as surface ridging builds into the Southern Plains in the wake of a cold front. This should also result in the strong advection of cooler and drier air into the region. Temperatures should be several degrees cooler than the last couple of days. However, the airmass behind the cold front has modified significantly, and temperatures will remain unseasonably warm during the day.
436 AM CST Fri Feb 23 2024 (Today through Saturday) A broken line of rain showers has moved across the area overnight, accompanied by a cold front. Highs will be mainly in the 60s across the area, falling into the low 40s tonight.
(Today through Saturday) Cold front currently across northern portions of the CWA will continue southward today. High pressure and dry conditions are expected tonight through Friday. Values should stay below Wind Advisory criteria, but a few gusts above 30mph are possible in the highest elevations.
High pressure will continue over the region today. Stable conditions under this ridge will help to promote patchy fog early this morning. Late today and this evening the ridge will begin to buckle or weaken when a short wave from British Columbia noses its way across Northwest Montana.
- Cold front arrives today with increasing northwest winds and cooler temperatures.
515 AM CST Fri Feb 23 2024 (Friday through Saturday) Northerly winds will prevail across the region through at least Saturday afternoon as surface ridging builds into the Southern Plains in the wake of a cold front. This should also result in the strong advection of cooler and drier air into the region. Temperatures should be several degrees cooler than the last couple of days. However, the airmass behind the cold front has modified significantly, and temperatures will remain unseasonably warm during the day.
(Today through Saturday Night) Drier air is filtering into the state from the NW in wake of the cold front that moved through the state on Thu. Highs will be a tad warmer on Sat.
(Today through Saturday) A broken line of rain showers has moved across the area overnight, accompanied by a cold front. Highs will be mainly in the 60s across the area, falling into the low 40s tonight.
Hires models show instability shower activity associated with secondary cold front developing in southwest PA late this afternoon which should reach the Laurel Highlands in the 00-03Z window.
Rain and snow will return tonight into Saturday morning as a low pressure system moves through the Ohio Valley. Will thus trend the forecast toward the HREF mean and spread pcpn in from the northwest mainly after midnight and have the highest pops running from northwest to southeast across our area. This will initially limit snow accumulations to mainly grassy and elevated surfaces, but some slick spots may begin to develop on roadways Saturday morning as air temperatures fall quickly below freezing. By daybreak Saturday, temperatures will range from the lower 20s in our northwest to around 30 degrees in our far south.
Pleasant weather conditions are expected through the weekend with warmer temperatures, occasional mid and high clouds, and locally breezy winds.
315 AM CST Fri Feb 23 2024 * Warmer above normal temperatures will prevail across central and southern Kansas for the next several days.
515 AM CST Fri Feb 23 2024 (Today) The cold front will not provide much relief from the relatively warm temperatures today as highs continue to be forecast in the mid 60s. However, it will be quite breezy with wind gusts ranging from 15-20 mph late this morning into the afternoon hours as high pressure filters in from the northwest.
Additional, isolated showers are expected to develop later this evening as a cold front advances from the north. - A cold front will cross later this afternoon and evening, bringing elevated winds and cooler temperatures, with isolated to scattered precipitation coverage. However, the clearing may be brief as a cold front advances south over the Great Lakes. Previous Discussion: Dry conditions and another relatively limited diurnal range in temperatures are expected today before another cold front drops south across the region later this afternoon and evening. The biggest impact will be much cooler temperatures and elevated winds in it's wake through Saturday. KEY MESSAGES: - Low pressure passing south of the region could result in light snow (<0.
520 AM CST Fri Feb 23 2024 (Today and tonight) West Texas will remain wedged between a high pressure off to the west and a trough across the eastern U. Slightly cooler temperatures will be in place this afternoon.
pdf Prefrontal trough will move southeast across area late this morning, with the main cold front reaching inland SE GA mid afternoon.
415 AM CST Fri Feb 23 2024 Today and Tonight: Cooler and drier through the period. These showers were just ahead of a cold front that early morning surface analysis had nearly along the Natchez Trace corridor. These showers will end by sunrise but the cold front will still be shifting southeast of our southeast most counties. Temperatures were still in the low to mid 60s ahead of the cold front but were getting knocked down into the mid 50s behind the cold front.
A significantly warmer start to our Friyay with temperatures across the area ranging from the upper 40s to mid 50s across the state. Meanwhile, an upper level trough and associated cold front continue to push into the East Coast. As of right now, the highest chances remain along the I-4 corridor and north along the Nature Coast with model guidance keeping most of the U/L support north of the area. High pressure builds back into the the Sunshine Shine pushing cooler and drier conditions into the area later in the weekend.
947 AM EST Fri Feb 23 2024 After a dry mild day, a strong cold front will move through late with light lake effect snow showers, which last into Saturday morning.
536 AM CST Fri Feb 23 2024 Cooler and drier air will filter into the region today behind the cold front that moved through last night. This will result in somewhat cooler temperatures today with highs in the low to mid 60s. With clear skies expected across the Mid-South tonight, temperatures will be cooler with lows Saturday morning in the upper 30s to mid 40s. A dry cold front will move through the region on Saturday with even cooler air expected behind it.
531 AM CST Fri Feb 23 2024 (Today through Saturday) Our cold front has moved very little early this morning with the marine layer holding strong, but pre-frontal winds have shifted to the north and have improved visibilities across most of the area. Temperatures tonight only fall back into the lower 50s and a few locations north in the upper 40s. High temperatures tomorrow expected near or slightly warmer than today as winds shift back around to the southeast in the afternoon.
518 AM CST Fri Feb 23 2024 * Warmer above normal temperatures will prevail across central and southern Kansas for the next several days.
Cooler and drier air will filter into the region today behind the cold front that moved through last night. This will result in somewhat cooler temperatures today with highs in the low to mid 60s. With clear skies expected across the Mid-South tonight, temperatures will be cooler with lows Saturday morning in the upper 30s to mid 40s. A dry cold front will move through the region on Saturday with even cooler air expected behind it.
(Today and tonight) West Texas will remain wedged between a high pressure off to the west and a trough across the eastern U. Slightly cooler temperatures will be in place this afternoon.
536 AM CST Fri Feb 23 2024 Today and Tonight: Cooler and drier through the period. These showers were just ahead of a cold front that early morning surface analysis had nearly along the Natchez Trace corridor. These showers will end by sunrise but the cold front will still be shifting southeast of our southeast most counties. Temperatures were still in the low to mid 60s ahead of the cold front but were getting knocked down into the mid 50s behind the cold front.
518 AM CST Fri Feb 23 2024 (Today through Saturday night) Dry and cooler air remains across the souther plains for today which will lead to partially sunny to sunny skies across the panhandles. Temperatures will remain on the cooler side with widespread 60s expected for most of the panhandles with only the colder spots remaining in the upper 50s. Going into Saturday a broad ridge begins to build into the souther plains which will continue the dry weather for the panhandles. Under this ridge winds are expected to shift to the SW and pick up a little speed helping to drive warmer air back across the panhandles. This coupled with broad subsidence heating under the ridge will make Saturday noticeably warmer with highs in the 70s for much of the panhandles with only those stubborn colder spots clinging onto the 60s.
(Today) The cold front will not provide much relief from the relatively warm temperatures today as highs continue to be forecast in the mid 60s. However, it will be quite breezy with wind gusts ranging from 15-20 mph late this morning into the afternoon hours as high pressure filters in from the northwest.
(Today through Saturday) Our cold front has moved very little early this morning with the marine layer holding strong, but pre-frontal winds have shifted to the north and have improved visibilities across most of the area. Temperatures tonight only fall back into the lower 50s and a few locations north in the upper 40s. High temperatures tomorrow expected near or slightly warmer than today as winds shift back around to the southeast in the afternoon.
The crest of a ridge is embedded in the flow over SOuthern ALberta and jogs southwest through the Intermountain West and down into California. Meanwhile the ridge aloft will exit and northwest to zonal flow will begin to replace it.
438 AM CST Fri Feb 23 2024 (Today through Saturday Night) Yeehaaaw! Today is Go Texan Day and we've managed to lasso in a cold front to bring us some slightly "cooler" temperatures along with a northerly breeze that could knock off a few cowboy hats this afternoon. Even though the cold front has pushed offshore, you won't really feel much of a difference during the daytime.
(This evening through Friday) Another warm and breezy afternoon across the area, but cooler than yesterday. Lows will be in the 40s and cooler Saturday with highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s.
A drier airmass at the surface, light winds, and clear skies tonight will also yield cooler overnight lows by Saturday morning.
(Today through Saturday) Fog and dense fog are settling in across the lower valley and across the lower Texas coast ahead of the cold front, expected to arrive by daybreak, but potentially actually arriving a couple of hours ahead of time, with MFE already northwesterly and clearing at 230 AM. Aside from the foggy and humid start, the short term period stays relatively quiet and gets rather comfortable with high pressure building today and slipping east through Saturday.
637 AM CST Fri Feb 23 2024 (Today through Saturday) Early morning surface observations show northerly winds behind a cold front are in place across all of south central Texas. Some drier air is noted behind the boundary, with dewpoints as low as the mid 20s along the Rio Grande to the lower 50s in the coastal plains. Overnight lows will range from the mid 40s to the lower 50s as high level clouds begin to thicken out west along the Rio Grande.
448 AM CST Fri Feb 23 2024 (Today through Saturday Night) Drier air is filtering into the state from the NW in wake of the cold front that moved through the state on Thu. Highs will be a tad warmer on Sat.
408 AM CST Fri Feb 23 2024 - Cold front arrives today with increasing northwest winds and cooler temperatures.
Dry conditions under a ridge of high pressure will persist into the weekend.
624 AM EST Fri Feb 23 2024 A cold front with light rain will cross the region this morning followed by a low pressure system and showers on Saturday.
Prevailing mid-level ridging, partly sunny skies, and southerly winds will promote another warm day with highs in the 90s. Make sure to stay hydrated and keep cool! Well to our north, a cold front is draped across the TX/OK Panhandles into western New Mexico, and will gradually move south as its upper level support approaches the Continental Divide. This disturbance will send the attached cold front south towards western North Texas overnight through much of the day Wednesday.
Shear increases to 40+ KTS so all the ingredients are there with the intro of the front and the parent upper trof sharpening on the synoptic scale for a convective event to break out with all hazards potential.
(Today and tonight) Breezy southerly winds will persist into the overnight hours keeping temperatures mild, with lows generally in the low-to-mid 70s. High upper heights will also continue ahead of a ridge.
Discussion: Broad longwave upper-level troughing continues across the Mississippi Valley with scattered convection across the Tennessee Valley through the Southern Appalachians. Additional widespread scattered convection is expected by Wednesday afternoon with the upper-level troughing and subtle MCV features moving across the region.
A low amplitude, convectively aided wave upstream is expected to lift east-northeast toward the lower Great Lakes later tonight into Wednesday morning. The low level jet responds and supplies a low level theta-e surge into mainly our nw IN and sw MI zones where clusters of primarily elevated convection will be possible. CAMS are also somewhat split on timing with a potential pre- frontal trough and MCV into western zones as early as 17-18z, or the primary wave/cold front being the main event later in the afternoon and early evening.
This is spurred by a weak upper level trough and southwest flow aloft.
(This evening through Wednesday) A typical early summer day across west central Texas with southerly flow and temperatures in the lower 90s and somewhat muggy conditions with dewpoints in the 60s across much of the area. Upper level ridge across the southeast US is shown to be a little closer to the area than the models yesterday at this time were showing, so temperatures in the low to mid 90 into the weekend (instead of the upper 80s to lower 90s we were mentioning yesterday) are in store.
/DC/ The synoptic upper-level pattern continues to feature a weakness between two ridges across the country.
1241 PM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025 (Today through Wednesday) Low pressure will develop and strengthen over the Ohio Valley and move northeast. A mid level jet around this low will move across the area this afternoon. With low and mid level flow prevailing out of the southwest and the higher winds with the jet, plenty of warm and moist air will be advected, with PW values max climatologically for this time of year.
Modest lapse rates and cooler temperatures aloft could support multi-cluster cells across the northern half of the state possibly producing large hail and strong to severe wind gusts.
- A bit below normal for high temperatures Wednesday behind a cold front.
141 PM PDT Tue Jun 17 2025 High pressure will dominate the region through Wednesday leading to continued hot weather for inland areas.
With the high level PWs, heavy downpours will occur and brief excessive rain could occur resulting in ponding and minor flooding. The clouds and early onset thunderstorms should keep afternoon highs in the lower to middle 80s.
High pressure rebounds into the area tomorrow bringing lighter winds and warm to hot temperatures.
While the high pressure over the region is fairly deeply layered, increasing moisture with exiting Saharan dust could lead to increasing convective coverage for Wednesday compared to Tuesday afternoon with the main focus inland and over Southwest Florida. Temperatures will remain warm with most areas reaching the lower 90s save for some sea breeze cooled areas.
- Greater risk for severe weather tonight into Wednesday with a cold front.
By the time they reach OK / KS border this morning, storms will likely be trending weaker though there could be a lingering low risk for strong to marginally severe storms (aided by the low level jet in northwest Oklahoma).
The greatest potential for severe weather will be Wednesday night as a cold front moves through the region.
Temperatures are within a couple degrees of yesterday's highs (cooler in SW Idaho and generally warmer for SE Oregon).
- Temperatures moderate slightly today with isolated showers and storms possible over the high terrain along and north of I-70.
Thunderstorm activity is currently ongoing generally along the Highway 56 corridor within a zone of strong 850-700mb warm advection and in vicinity of an old outflow boundary slowing sagging south. Additionally, given the rainfall last into early today, along with multiple rounds through this evening, areas of flash flooding and river flooding are likely, especially generally along and south of the Highway 56 corridor. As we head into late week and this weekend, building upper ridging will support increasing summer heat, with highs in the 90s to possibly near 100 degrees expected.
Wednesday will again be another hot afternoon across the region with highs climbing easily into the low and mid 90's. A cold front will push south through central and southern Oklahoma during the mid to late afternoon.
(Today and tonight) High pressure aloft will remain across the area today as the upper-level ridge begins to slowly shift back westward through tonight. Upper level ridge across the southeast US is shown to be a little closer to the area than the models yesterday at this time were showing, so temperatures in the low to mid 90 into the weekend (instead of the upper 80s to lower 90s we were mentioning yesterday) are in store.
(Today and tonight) High pressure aloft will remain across the area today as the upper-level ridge begins to slowly shift back westward through tonight.
As the upper ridging shifts east, zonal flow sets up across our area late tonight when the marine layer deepens with more widespread coastal low marine layer stratus expected to return overnight into early Wednesday morning.
This feature is dragging a weak cold front across the east UP, though mostly sunny skies are allowing temps to climb into the low 70s to near 80 across the interior. Through the rest of this afternoon and evening, the building mid-level ridge should keep the CWA dry with partly cloudy skies.
The mid level trough that has been hanging over the coast the past couple of days will fill a bit but more importantly drift eastward out over the water as the ridge west of the area strengthens. Temperatures the next several days will be similar to normal from the low to mid 90s east to a bit above 10 west. This has led to a decrease in rain chances, though will still hold on to low to moderate chances at this time, and it's entirely possible things change again and the ridging doesn't hold this wave south, but time will tell. Temperature forecasts are a bit warmer though the end of the week and into the weekend than they were, but still near to slightly below normal.
Prevailing mid-level ridging, partly sunny skies, and southerly winds will promote another warm day with highs in the 90s. Make sure to stay hydrated and keep cool! Well to our north, a cold front is draped across the TX/OK Panhandles into western New Mexico, and will gradually move south as its upper level support approaches the Continental Divide. This disturbance will send the attached cold front south towards western North Texas overnight through much of the day Wednesday. Otherwise, the rest of the forecast will be warm, humid, and mostly dry, as ridging meanders across the CONUS.
On Wednesday, a shallow ridge attempts to build over the Northern Rockies, with continued northwest flow over the Dakotas.
344 PM EDT Tue Jun 17 2025 High pressure in the Atlantic will prevail across the Southeast this week. A cold front could approach, then pass just to our north later this week. We'll remain on the western side of a strong deep layered ridge through tonight. Isolated showers or a thunderstorm could pop up along the sea breeze or farther inland within the lee trough, but coverage will be very limited and anything that does develop should die off by early evening.
Aloft, high pressure also lingers, which will remain in place for the next several days. Most of the HighRes guidance suggest afternoon thunderstorm activity will likely decrease by sundown, with only a few showers lingering into the nighttime hours. Ensembles and CAMs data suggest having a modest increase in moisture advection as the mid level ridge weakens a little. Tuesday's afternoon temperatures will remain above normals, with highs generally in the low 90s. Heat index values may hit the low 100s at times, especially over inland areas.
Later today into the evening hours, along and put ahead of the main cold front, storms that develop will become linear and form an MCS to move east- southeast into central Kansas and northern Oklahoma. A less than 10% chance of a thunderstorm for the far SE TX Panhandle tomorrow afternoon if the cold front is hung up. Otherwise, temperatures return to near average for mid June with highs in the lower 90s with dry conditions.
(Tonight through Wednesday night) Key messages: - Typical hot summer weather with a moderate to breezy south- southeasterly flow Mid-level ridging remains centered towards our west across Baja California but 589 to 592 dam heights do extend eastward over the region.
- A strong low pressure system from the Pacific coast will favor the return of more widespread strong thunderstorms this weekend.
This is very evident over the past few hours on radar as severe storms over the high plains of eastern Colorado move into Kit Carson and Cheyenne counties and immediately begin to weaken. Increasing negative vorticity advection and deep layer subsidence will take hold of the area late tonight and tomorrow as a strong longwave ridge axis moves in from the west. A very strong deep layer ridge axis will dominate the forecast area through the weekend. Hot and dry conditions will be the rule as this ridge slides through the region. The heat should peak over the weekend when the ridge and overall subsidence will be greatest. Model temperature spread is fairly low, and there is a high degree of confidence that temperatures will warm into the low to mid 100s this weekend.
840 AM PDT Tue Jun 17 2025 High pressure to the south will maintain above average high temperatures through Wednesday, as much as 10 to 15 degrees above average for the deserts.