Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
The low dew point depressions and light winds along with lingering moisture from weekend rainfall will be incredibly supportive for fog during the early morning hours. Today, we will find ourself right at the intersection of high pressure to the west and low pressure to the east as a tropical low over the Carolina's pushes inland. The high pressure will support clear and dry conditions in NW AL with high temps in the high 80s.
Overnight lows will generally range between the lower and mid 60s. (Through tonight ) Still some lingering impact from "Francine" as the remnant low continues to meander across the lower MS valley, all the while weakening.
1223 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024 (Tonight through Tuesday night) An omega block pattern will remain in place from the short term period and beyond with the mid-level ridging portion of this block pattern remaining settled atop the state of Texas.
Well above average, summer-like temperatures continue due to lower level thermal ridging.
Daytime temps should top out in the low 90s, but with lower moisture, it should at least be a dry heat.
(Today through Wednesday) The leftover moisture to our west will finally be ushered back to our south today as high pressure builds in. A few of the CAMS show a dry day as the area of high pressure fends off the moisture from the east, while others indicate there will be enough moisture to generate a few showers/storms during the peak heating of the day.
KLG (This evening through Wednesday night) A broad upper level low pressure system centered over the Deep South will continue to influence the forecast on Tuesday. Even that 20 percent will be a push given the strength of the ridge axis building in from the west. Temperatures will be near to slightly warmer than average each day with highs in the mid to upper 80s.
1207 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024 - Staying warm throughout the week, eventually turning cooler by the end of the weekend.
Pattern/synopsis: Ridging extends into the central Great Lakes from the east. Lows tonight will be cool, probably a hair cooler than this morning. A fairly active pattern across the CONUS in the upper levels with three closed lows impacting various regions.
- Overall precipitation amounts expected to be on the low side with most areas 20 to 30% chance of 1/4" of new rainfall.
617 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024 (Today through Wednesday) The leftover moisture to our west will finally be ushered back to our south today as high pressure builds in. A few of the CAMS show a dry day as the area of high pressure fends off the moisture from the east, while others indicate there will be enough moisture to generate a few showers/storms during the peak heating of the day.
then overnight, the 500 mb ridge builds in and pushes the upper level moisture out of the region.
The low pressure system responsible for our recent rounds of showers and strong thunderstorms will track directly over southeast Idaho today, resulting in widespread on-and-off shower activity with embedded thunderstorms regionwide. Precip will tend to trend down tonight with the most persistent showers refocusing north and east of Idaho Falls for Wednesday as the low moves into MT.
As the low pressure that was Potential Tropical Cyclone 8 continues to sync with the upper level trough over the southeast CONUS, deep layer troughing will establish itself over Florida. By the end of this week PoPs will stabilize back near normal as the deep layer troughing slides northeast up the Eastern Seaboard.
This morning the water vapor shows on upper level low moving out of the area and the next one approaching the area. The models are now in fairly good agreement on this low dropping down just off the west coast. With the low remaining off the coast this will keep the threat for thunderstorms off the coast until Wednesday afternoon in Mendocino and Lake counties. The low will be passing by near or shortly before peak heating bringing a slight chance for thunderstorms across Mendocino and Lake counties. This low will also bring cooler temperatures in the inland areas with highs mainly in the low to mid 70s. Wednesday night the low moves south and out of the area fairly quickly.
A upper level trough and associated front will push through the region late Tuesday for some rain showers into Wednesday.
Nice and sunny inland, but the coastal areas will hang on to the marine stratus thanks to a reforming marine layer in the wake of the departing trough. There is a slight chance of drizzle to end the day today along coastal areas and ranges as the next upper trough approaches, bringing light rain chances Wednesday.
The highest observed, one hour total was 0. 60" occurred over the Elkhorn Ridge fire, located well south of Red River Hot Spring. The main upper level low will track into Wyoming tonight, then east and north into eastern Montana on Wednesday.
Very complex 500 mb pattern to evolve as upper low in Nevada moves northeast into southeast Saskatchewan by 06z Thu and then moves northeast followed by a second 500 mb low that moves southeast from northwest B. The location, track of these upper lows will play a huge role in t-storm potential, location, timing the next several days. Uncertain about tonight as will start to moisture associated to the east of the upper low that is moving north well west of the area. Wednesday will see a band of showers and t-storms that is behind pushed ahead of the upper low move into E ND and NW MN during the morning or afternoon, depending on timing of low movement and location.
603 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024 (Today through Wednesday afternoon) Current water vapor imagery shows the longwave trough that will pivot across the Four Corners and move just northwest of our area for today. As the upper level trough moves to the east during the day today, the surface feature will follow suit. Drier conditions hold for Wednesday as the aforementioned upper low departs northward. Highs for both today and on Wednesday top out above normal in the low to mid 90s for most with the exception of the mountains that stay slightly cooler.
648 AM EDT Tue Sep 17 2024 High pressure will continue to bring dry and mild weather through the remainder of the week and into this weekend for most of the region. There is a small chance for showers in northeast Pennsylvania on Wednesday as low pressure passes well to our south. High pressure will remain over the region today and again tomorrow. However, the cirrus will keep temperatures slightly cooler than yesterday, but still well above average for this time of year. Latest model guidance keeps low pressure well south of the region on Wednesday, so lowered PoPs to just slight chance for portions of NE PA through Wednesday evening.
Meanwhile, the remainder of the region is under a small bubble of high pressure between the boundary and low pressure situated over the Carolinas. Storms will be capable of localized heavy rain given the high precipitable water values, and a marginal risk of flash flooding remains across the Florida panhandle given the current saturated soils. Expect daytime highs generally in the 80s with overnight lows ranging from the mid 60s across the northern counties to the low to mid 70s along the coast.
One thing we'll have to watch for today is some blow- off mid/high cloud cover from an area of low pressure over the Carolinas.
647 AM EDT Tue Sep 17 2024 Low pressure will move from the Carolinas into the southern Appalachians today where it will stall. High pressure will then offer dry weather for the end of the week into the weekend. Clouds will keep daytime temperatures a little cooler than today - but still continue above normal. Clouds and an increase in low level moisture will result in warmer readings with lows in the lower to mid 60s. Expect warm highs to range from the lower 80s to the middle 80s. High pressure containing scant moisture is likely to keep dry weather across the Ohio Valley through the period.
Good mixing will allow dew points to drop into the mid to upper 40s this afternoon over most of the area this afternoon, so despite highs in the upper 80s, apparent temperatures will run a few degrees cooler. Dewpoints as of 2 am are sitting in the 50s, with the lowest readings in east-central Illinois. A Rex block remains stoutly in place over the eastern CONUS with strong high pressure ridging over the northeast US and an upper low over the southeast. The remnants of Tropical Depression Eight will continue to slowly move inland today before becoming stationary as it encounters ridging. Daytime highs will continue to sit between 5-10 degrees warmer than normal for mid September.
Though the southern Plains mid-level ridge will remain tethered to the state through the forecast period, the expanding western U. trough will tilt the ridge axis across North and Central Texas. The eastward shift of the associated low level thermal ridge will inflate 850 mb temperatures locally by an average of 4 to 7C according to model projections.
Currently - A nearly closed and stacked trough over the eastern United States is the dominant synoptic feature across the broader area this morning. This troughing is playing a role in keeping the lower tropospheric ridge stretched across our area.
Conditions dry out today with temperatures over 10 degrees cooler than yesterday. Another low pressure system drops into the region mid-to-late week, which will reinforce below-average temperatures and return precipitation chances to the southern Great Basin. This closed low will slide along the California coast before pushing into the Desert Southwest late Wednesday night.
An upper-level trough spins over the southeast U. early this morning, with Atlantic ridging extending toward the Florida Straits. At the surface, Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight remains over the Carolinas while a weak boundary persists over Florida. The trough aloft generally persists over the southeast through much of the week before ridging builds over the area for the weekend. Light onshore flow will continue through the next few days, then shift to northerly for the end of the week and then back to northeast to east for the weekend as high pressure builds in from the north.
Breezy, dry, and a few degrees cooler than normal through the work week. In the upper levels this morning, a deep trough was centered over Nevada into far southern California, while a jet streak was ejecting through the base of trough into Arizona and Utah. The eastward dry air push associated with the southwesterly flow of the trough will effectively cut off precipitation chances by late this morning, though coverage has already been diminished by the top- down moisture erosion ongoing over the previous couple days. Temperatures remain a few degrees below normal through the work week under persistent western CONUS troughing.
325 PM EDT Tue Sep 17 2024 High pressure will continue to bring dry and mild weather through the remainder of the week and into this weekend for most of the region. There is a small chance for showers in northeast Pennsylvania on Wednesday as low pressure passes well to our south. High pressure will remain over the region today and again tomorrow. However, the cirrus will keep temperatures slightly cooler than yesterday, but still well above average for this time of year. Latest model guidance keeps low pressure well south of the region on Wednesday, so lowered PoPs to just slight chance for portions of NE PA through Wednesday evening.
144 PM EDT Tue Sep 17 2024 High pressure will continue to bring dry and mild weather through the remainder of the week and into this weekend for most of the region. There is a small chance for showers in northeast Pennsylvania on Wednesday as low pressure passes well to our south. High pressure will remain over the region today and again tomorrow. However, the cirrus will keep temperatures slightly cooler than yesterday, but still well above average for this time of year. Latest model guidance keeps low pressure well south of the region on Wednesday, so lowered PoPs to just slight chance for portions of NE PA through Wednesday evening.
422 PM EDT Tue Sep 17 2024 Weakening low pressure will linger west of the area before slowly moving northeast, drier air building in by Tuesday. A weak cold front will bring more seasonable temperatures near the end of the work week. With the upper low still to our west on Wednesday a few spokes of vorticity will rotate through the area, mainly western zones. 5" with decent instability in the afternoon as the low moves overhead.
243 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024 - Daily chances of showers and storms will continue through the weekend, with the highest likelihood occurring at night.
We're seeing an area of convergence that has developed on the southwestern side of the low over the northern counties of Central Alabama. With the closed low still spinning off to our northeast on Wednesday, we should see some extra cloud cover over our eastern and northeastern counties.
Drizzle was reported in the higher terrain over the region this morning with rainfall amounts between a trace and 0. Nice and sunny inland, but the coastal areas will hang on to the marine stratus thanks to a reforming marine layer in the wake of the departing trough. There is a slight chance of drizzle to end the day today along coastal areas and ranges as the next upper trough approaches, bringing light rain chances Wednesday.
138 PM EDT Tue Sep 17 2024 Remnant tropical low pressure will stall over the southern Appalachians tonight through Wednesday, bringing a few light showers southeast of Interstate 71. Otherwise, dry weather will persist under weak high pressure into the weekend. Large scale pattern tonight will consist of mid-level ridging centered over the central Plains with troughing over the Appalachians. Decaying tropical low at the base of this trough will be nearly stationary during the period. Have held a chance of showers in our southeast Wednesday as the low slowly weakens. Clouds will continue to offer slightly cooler afternoon temperatures in this area. Otherwise, partly to mostly cloudy skies will continue with warm afternoon highs in the lower 80s.
A large trough in western North America will be punctuated by a strong short wave trough moving out of the central Rockies today into the Central and Northern Plains. Low level convergence within a surface pressure trough will also complement the large scale ascent and the development of convection in eastern New Mexico through the evening. Large scale ascent will be absent on Wednesday afternoon but the surface pressure trough/dryline will be dragged farther to the east over the South Plains.
A cut-off low pressure system will continue to spin over east-central Idaho through the evening today, that will bring widespread wetting rains across much of western Montana and north-central Idaho through early Wednesday. In the more immediate time-frame, locally heavy rainfall will be possible on the northern periphery of the low across northwest and west-central Montana this afternoon and evening. The low pressure system will move into western Wyoming and central Montana overnight, that will transition most of the precipitation to locations along the Continental Divide, where probabilities for 24hr rainfall amounts totaling 1. Locations in north-central Idaho, west of the Bitterroot Crest, will miss out on the higher amounts, where probabilities for even 0.
354 PM EDT Tue Sep 17 2024 High pressure will continue to bring mainly dry and mild weather through the remainder of the week and into this weekend for most of the region. 350 PM Update: High pressure continues to dominate our weather with just some high cirrostratus overhead of a low pressure system over the Carolinas. Tonight will generally be partly cloudy with the higher clouds remaining across the area. Partly sunny skies are again expected on Wednesday with high pressure remaining in control for the most part.
Conditions dry out today with temperatures over 10 degrees cooler than yesterday. Another low pressure system drops into the region mid-to-late week, which will reinforce below-average temperatures and return precipitation chances to the southern Great Basin. Satellite imagery this morning showed a trough spinning in northeast Nevada. Withe the trough axis through much of the region, it was dry with clear skies in most locations. Compared to this time yesterday, temperatures are about 10-15 degrees cooler, so a noticable change in the temperatures for sure! In general, expecting quiet weather through the afternoon. This closed low will slide along the California coast before pushing into the Desert Southwest late Wednesday night.
The region will remain sandwiched between a nearly stationary, stacked upper low over the western Carolinas and a deep upper low over N Utah.
(Now through Wednesday) An upper low centered near the Carolinas gradually broadens and evolves into an upper trof over the eastern states through Wednesday night. Lows tonight range from the mid 60s well inland to the lower 70s at the coast, and lows Wednesday night will be similar.
Thus, expect a typically cooler night across low spots among hilly terrain and within river valleys as cool air drains and pools in these locations. Anomalous high pressure correlates to anomalous warmth, with temperatures remaining in the 80s on Wednesday. The pattern remains pretty consistent with high pressure situated overhead with a few low pressure systems tracking around the Northwoods.
Calm and warmer weather is expected throughout the week.
(Rest of today through Wednesday) A deep-layered area of low pressure continues to sit over the southeastern United States with an associated frontal boundary sagging south across the peninsula of Florida. The extra cloud cover could help limit the fast-pace of diurnal heating in the mornings and reinforced cold pools in the wake of convection could provide some brief periods of relatively cooler temperatures.
104 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024 (Today through Wednesday Night) Mid-upper ridging and associated subsidence should keep rain chances at a minimum.
216 PM EDT Tue Sep 17 2024 Some limited rain chances, best in the ridges southeast of Pittsburgh, will be present into Wednesday night thanks to slow-moving low pressure.
The models show this low center staying fairly stationary for the next 24 hours before moving NE into the Mid Atlantic states Wed night/Thu morning. The low center is weakening and all were expecting is just increased cloud cover for most of North and Central GA through the short term. These increased clouds will help to keep high temperatures a bit cooler across north Georgia compared to their central or south GA counterparts.
High plains convection forced by the ejecting trough through the Central Rockies should remain well to our northwest through tonight. (Tomorrow through Tuesday) Main story for the next few days will be the return of much above normal temperatures as the Southern Plains remain under the ridge portion of a blocking pattern.
Wednesday will feature the highest PoPs near the I-10 corridor, and although the flash flood threat should be lower, localized poor drainage flooding cannot be ruled out.
Mid-upper level ridging and subsidence should keep the area dry for the most part; however, could have isolated precipitation along the sea breeze (less than 20% chance).
The primary driving mechanism for the weather today has transitioned from Francine remnants to the interaction between a continental ridge and a deep retrograding low centered over the eastern parts of the Carolinas. High relative humidity values and moderate cloud coverage are contributing to our smaller diurnal temperature swings, leading to cooler highs in the mid 80s F and seasonable lows in the mid 60s F.
The forecast area has been influenced by upper level low pressure that is now exiting the area to the northeast. In its place will be a very short reprieve of dry conditions through early Wednesday with another upper level trough moving into the area during the afternoon. The track of the upper low will follow a more southern trajectory with the best chances for accumulating precipitation in central Nevada.
Otherwise, expect highs today in the low to mid 90s with lows in the 70s. Though the southern Plains mid-level ridge will remain tethered to the state through the forecast period, the expanding western U. trough will tilt the ridge axis across North and Central Texas. The eastward shift of the associated low level thermal ridge will inflate 850 mb temperatures locally by an average of 4 to 7C according to model projections.
1239 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024 (Today through Wednesday) Large synoptic upper troughing over the eastern CONUS has devoured the remnants of PCT8. This whole mess has developed two large trough lobes. This process will continue today but this trough axis will slowly move to the coast by Wed as dry mid level air continues to press southward.
high pressure will nearly guarantee that fair dry weather will persist for the foreseeable future. with many areas achieving levels in the lower 80s. as high pressure anchored off the New England coast will reach back across our forecast area. the weather promises to be uneventful with just the high clouds and mins in the 50s. While protective high pressure will continue to extend back across our region from the Canadian maritimes Wednesday and Wednesday night.
/29 (Now through Wednesday night) An upper low centered near the Carolinas gradually broadens and evolves into an upper trof over the eastern states through Wednesday night. Lows tonight range from the mid 60s well inland to the lower 70s at the coast, and lows Wednesday night will be similar.
Current water vapor imagery shows a cutoff low centered over the Ohio Valley beneath a ridge spanning the eastern CONUS as a trough digs equatorward over the western states. The CWA remains situated between these two features, with high pressure at the surface continuing to lead to calm and warm conditions. Another round of valley fog can't be ruled out mainly in central and southeastern Missouri, but with temperatures forecast to be slightly warmer tonight than last night, this too has been left out of the forecast for now. With southerly low-level flow, mostly clear skies, and mid- level temperatures warming subtly, surface temperatures tomorrow afternoon will be around to just a couple of degrees warmer than today as highs top out around 90 degrees.
1237 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024 (Today through Wednesday afternoon) Current water vapor imagery shows the longwave trough that will pivot across the Four Corners and move just northwest of our area for today. As the upper level trough moves to the east during the day today, the surface feature will follow suit. Drier conditions hold for Wednesday as the aforementioned upper low departs northward. Highs for both today and on Wednesday top out above normal in the low to mid 90s for most with the exception of the mountains that stay slightly cooler.
(Tonight through Wednesday night) Key Messages: - Moderate Risk of of heat-related impacts A mid to upper level ridge is expected to expand into the region from northern Mexico tonight into tomorrow. Near normal temperatures are expected tomorrow afternoon ranging from the lower to the upper 90s.
121 PM PDT Tue Sep 17 2024 Dry today then cooler unsettled weather tonight through Wednesday.
The Plateau wins for being the coolest with many spots still in the low 60s as we approach the noon hour. This is directly related to the upper level low centered over the TN/GA/NC triple point.
1125 AM EDT Tue Sep 17 2024 Low pressure will move from the Carolinas into the southern Appalachians today where it will stall. High pressure will then offer dry weather for the end of the week into the weekend. Clouds and an increase in low level moisture will result in warmer readings with lows in the lower to mid 60s. Expect warm highs to range from the lower 80s to the middle 80s. High pressure containing scant moisture is likely to keep dry weather across the Ohio Valley through the period.
Scattered convection has develop in-advance of the trough axis across central and western CO. The trough axis is poised to progress into the northern Plains overnight.