Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
133 PM PDT Sat Aug 10 2024 Strong high pressure aloft and monsoonal moisture will bring hot weather inland today, with a chance of thunderstorms over the mountains and portions of the deserts. Slightly cooler Sunday with continued chances of thunderstorms over the mountains and deserts.
------------------------------------------------------------------- A similar story expected for Sunday as high pressure meanders further east. The axis of the upper trough will pass overhead as some additional weak waves move through its base. With cooler 500 mb temperatures overhead in the thermal trough, some meager instability may develop with ensemble probability for >300 J/kg of CAPE around 50-60%. With high pressure holding firm as it continues its eastward trek, any very low precipitation chances would likely be orographically forced or off of the lake breeze.
Discussion: Surface ridging will continue to build Tennessee valley and southern Appalachians with a drier airmass.
(Tonight) High pressure stacked in the low/mid levels with more zonal flow into the upper levels will generally be in place overnight tonight. North winds veering slightly more northeasterly through sunrise will continue to usher in a cooler airmass overnight, with no rain chances.
Given recent dry conditions the flood threat still appears to be on the lower side, but if very heavy rains fall quickly in the right area, such as the Tulsa metro, some flooding could occur.
Water vapor imagery this afternoon shows the well-defined upper low spinning across the Upper Great Lakes and Ontario this afternoon, with multiple lobes of vorticity rotating about the main circulation. This upper low will slowly move southeast across Ontario and into Quebec over the rest of the weekend. As a few lobes of vorticity and the pocket of cooler air aloft move over portions of southeast Michigan on Sunday, showers are possible from mid-late morning and into the afternoon hours.
(Tonight through Sunday night) An upper-level ridge will remain centered over the Western US through the period.
An upper ridge building east over the Southeast will help keep daytime temperatures at or above seasonal norms for today and Sunday. Temperatures topping out in the low 90s north of Highway 84 and along the coast mid to upper 90s between are expected today and Sunday.
(This evening through Sunday Night) High pressure over terrafirma is our best friend in August, unfortunately it will be modifying as quickly as it arrived. Current readings are still moreso in the upper 80s than lower 90s, but we will tap on a bit more for the highs. The 1024mb high pressure system is centered over SE MO and sprawling all down the MS River Valley. So we are going a little cooler than NBM for the new day or two on lows.
* Very pleasant weekend with cooler temperatures and lower humidity. These conditions will continue as high pressure is overhead. Dew points will remain in the low 60s through the day and high temperatures will reach the upper 70s and low 80s in the afternoon (still below normal). Below normal temperatures and dry weather will continue into the second half of the weekend as an upper level trough will remain over the eastern one-third of North America. With the center of high pressure still slightly NW of the area on Sunday, light NW flow in the low-levels and a lack of significant height increases will keep temperatures fairly similar to Saturday, possibly adding 1 to 2 degrees as CAA wanes.
1253 PM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024 (Today through Sunday Night) The Natural State rmns under the influence of high pressure that was centered over the Central Plains. An upper low wl meander north of the Great Lakes, while a flat upper ridge axis stays in place over TX and the southwestern U.
300 PM EDT Sat Aug 10 2024 * Very pleasant weekend with cooler temperatures and lower humidity. High pressure will continue to move into the region from the west over the next two days, which brings mostly clear skies along with calm to light winds. Temperatures in our area will remain cooler than normal, with highs in the low 80s.
258 PM EDT Sat Aug 10 2024 - Mainly dry and cool through Sunday night - Pleasant week ahead, shower chances increase late week - Mainly dry and cool through Sunday night Several of the high res models and even the GFS were producing isolated showers tonight across the area. With the low pressure system slowly pulling away from the region on Sunday, the temperature at 925/850 mb start to rise gradually. The first half of the week should be mostly/completely dry as the upper low currently affecting the Great Lakes region moves off to the east. In it's wake, we'll fall under the influence of building upper level ridging to our west, putting us on the subsidence/dry side of the ridge axis.
326 PM EDT Sat Aug 10 2024 High pressure will cover the Tennessee Valley and much of the Mid Atlantic states tonight through Sunday while a front drifts from eastern Virginia to the Carolina coast.
Upper level jet centered just north of the 40th latitude is expected to eek north this week as upper level ridge across the west expands east. Have sided with cooler forecast highs with abundant cloud cover across the region, but surface warming may be sufficient to lead to a few afternoon thunderstorms. Leeward troughing east of the Rockies is expected on Sunday across the western high plains. Associated warm front is expected to lift north through the region Sunday afternoon. As the nose of the low level jet feeds into the region, expect lift to increase further on the 300-305 K isentropic surfaces leading to shower and thunderstorm development.
(This evening through Sunday) The upper high currently overhead will remain in place through tonight and tomorrow. This will, overall, continue the trend of dry and warmer. Temps will warm back into the upper 90s to near 100 across the FA tomorrow thanks to the persistent upper high.
Think the NBM pops may be little too high across the north overnight tonight, but if the low level jet can supply just enough low level lift and moisture, and the short wave can supply enough lift aloft, then we may see more showers and storms.
Overnight lows in the low to mid 50s, warmer near Lake Michigan.
Another cool afternoon, with highs generally in the low 80s.
The upper low rotating around the Great Lakes will begin to pull off to the east tonight, allowing for some brief ridging.
1224 PM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024 (Rest of today through Sunday night) Absolutely spectacular weather across Middle Tennessee today thanks to a cold front that moved across the region last night, with current temperatures in the 70s and dewpoints in the mid 50s to low 60s. Tomorrow and tomorrow night look just as nice as today, although a tad warmer with highs in the low to mid 80s and lows in the upper 50s to low 60s.
The highest storm chances will be over the eastern Interior and western portions of the east coast metro, but some spillover towards the Lake and east coast will remain possible. For the first time in what seems like ages (largely due to the influence Debby had on our weather this past week) the low-lvl mean flow will back more SErly on Sunday.
As the high cloud cover moves out, this reveals the lingering low cloud deck over the High Plains. Expect daily chances for showers and thunderstorms as several pieces of energy continue to emanate from the slow moving parent trough in the Pacific Northwest.
Through Sunday night: A seasonably cool airmass continues to be housed beneath a persistent Great Lakes upper trough, which currently resides along the southern periphery of a slow moving an upper low across southern Ontario. Consequently, afternoon air temperatures across our area today are only topping out in the low to mid 70s. For reference, this is about 6 to 9 degrees below our average highs in the low 80s this time of year. Overnight low temperatures are forecast to bottom out generally in the low 50s outside Chicago and away from the lake, though a few of the coldest spots could fall into the upper 40s. The weather on Sunday should be somewhat similar to that experienced today, with the exception that the winds will be lighter and temperatures will be a couple of degrees warmer.
333 PM EDT Sat Aug 10 2024 High pressure will persist across the region into the middle of the week. But dry airmass with light wind and little cloud cover will allow lows to fall into the lower to mid 50s. High pressure center over the mid Mississippi Valley at the beginning of the period will expand eastward during the short term. With little change in airmass, expect highs and lows to be near or perhaps just a bit warmer than persistence.
High pressure will provide dry weather and below-normal temperatures. High temperatures on Sunday will range from the lower 70s to lower 80s. A low pressure system will move southeast from the Northern Plains into the Mid Mississippi River Valley. The highest totals will be in northeast Iowa. Low temperatures on Sunday night will be in the lower and mid-50s.
Above normal temperatures will continue as high pressure persists over the southwestern states.
120 PM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024 (Today through Sunday) The Subtropical Ridge remains nearly overhead in the short term.
1220 PM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024 (Rest of Today) Surface analysis this morning shows high pressure well in control and centered to the west over the Central Plains. The cold front from yesterday is now stalled along the Atlantic Coast. On top of the "cooler" temperatures, dew points will only be in the low/mid 60s, making those max temps this afternoon very tolerable.
7" tomorrow) as the strong ridge aloft persists. All the drier air at the lower levels mixing with the drier air aloft should help produce slightly less sticky conditions for the evening hours.
1236 PM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024 (Today through Sunday) Key Messages: - Heat Advisory in effect for the Coastal Bend - Moderate to major risk of heat-related impacts this weekend Water vapor imagery this morning reveals an upper level ridge in place across the Southern Plains and an upper trough moving across the Great Lakes. Upper level ridging remains in control on Sunday. Feel confident in the low risk today but will need to monitor the coast through the day in case we need to bump up to a moderate risk.
(This afternoon through Sunday night) Mid and upper level ridging is still in full control of our overall weather.
(Rest of today through Sunday night) Absolutely spectacular weather across Middle Tennessee today thanks to a cold front that moved across the region last night, with current temperatures in the 70s and dewpoints in the mid 50s to low 60s. Tomorrow and tomorrow night look just as nice as today, although a tad warmer with highs in the low to mid 80s and lows in the upper 50s to low 60s.
745 PM EDT Sat Aug 10 2024 High pressure will cover the Tennessee Valley and much of the Mid Atlantic tonight through Sunday as a cold front drifts from eastern Virginia to the Carolina coast.
Storm chances will favor the mountain elevations this week as high pressure remains fixed over central Texas. High pressure aloft stretched across much of the Rio Grande Valley and central Texas today, suppressing rain chances. 84" suggests dry weather will stick around through the weekend, with only a few stray showers over the high elevations.
- Mainly dry and cool through Sunday night Several of the high res models and even the GFS were producing isolated showers tonight across the area. With the low pressure system slowly pulling away from the region on Sunday, the temperature at 925/850 mb start to rise gradually. The first half of the week should be mostly/completely dry as the upper low currently affecting the Great Lakes region moves off to the east. In it's wake, we'll fall under the influence of building upper level ridging to our west, putting us on the subsidence/dry side of the ridge axis.
630 PM EDT Sat Aug 10 2024 * Very pleasant weekend with cooler temperatures and lower humidity. High pressure will continue to move into the region from the west over the next two days, which brings mostly clear skies along with calm to light winds. Temperatures in our area will remain cooler than normal, with highs in the low 80s.
452 PM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024 (This evening through Sunday Night) High pressure over terrafirma is our best friend in August, unfortunately it will be modifying as quickly as it arrived. Current readings are still moreso in the upper 80s than lower 90s, but we will tap on a bit more for the highs. The 1024mb high pressure system is centered over SE MO and sprawling all down the MS River Valley. So we are going a little cooler than NBM for the new day or two on lows.
1041 PM EDT Sat Aug 10 2024 A frontal boundary will continue to push slowly east offshore as high pressure noses in from the southwest tonight through Sunday night.
729 PM EDT Sat Aug 10 2024 High pressure will persist across the region into the middle of the week. But dry airmass with light wind and little cloud cover will allow lows to fall into the lower to mid 50s. High pressure center over the mid Mississippi Valley at the beginning of the period will expand eastward during the short term. With little change in airmass, expect highs and lows to be near or perhaps just a bit warmer than persistence.
631 PM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024 - Temperatures will remain below average through the weekend, with lows tonight in the lower 40s to lower 50s and High Sunday in the 70s except for mid to upper 60s southwest.
931 PM EDT Sat Aug 10 2024 High pressure will persist across the region into the middle of the week. Overnight lows will be mostly in the low to mid 50s. High pressure center over the mid Mississippi Valley at the beginning of the period will expand eastward during the short term. With little change in airmass, expect highs and lows to be near or perhaps just a bit warmer than persistence.
541 PM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024 (Rest of today through Sunday night) Absolutely spectacular weather across Middle Tennessee today thanks to a cold front that moved across the region last night, with current temperatures in the 70s and dewpoints in the mid 50s to low 60s. Tomorrow and tomorrow night look just as nice as today, although a tad warmer with highs in the low to mid 80s and lows in the upper 50s to low 60s.
(Rest of tonight) A WNW flow aloft of 20-30 knots will persist across the TN Valley overnight, and work in conjunction with light NNE flow in the low-levels to maintain a dry airmass highlighted by PWAT values in the 1. Thus, we expect lows to generally be in the l-m 60s (a few degrees warmer near large bodies of water and a few degrees cooler in our southern TN counties, where a few readings in the upper 50s will be possible Sunday morning).
618 PM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024 (This evening through Sunday) The upper high currently overhead will remain in place through tonight and tomorrow. This will, overall, continue the trend of dry and warmer. Temps will warm back into the upper 90s to near 100 across the FA tomorrow thanks to the persistent upper high.
938 PM EDT Sat Aug 10 2024 * Very pleasant weekend with cooler temperatures and lower humidity. High pressure will continue to move into the region from the west over the next two days, which brings mostly clear skies along with calm to light winds. Temperatures in our area will remain cooler than normal, with highs in the low 80s.
634 PM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024 (Tonight) High pressure stacked in the low/mid levels with more zonal flow into the upper levels will generally be in place overnight tonight. North winds veering slightly more northeasterly through sunrise will continue to usher in a cooler airmass overnight, with no rain chances.
602 PM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024 (Tonight through Sunday night) An upper-level ridge will remain centered over the Western US through the period.
The western Atlantic high pressure ridge will build across south Florida through Sunday, providing south to southwest flow around 8-12 KT across the local waters.
1000 PM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024 - Temperatures will remain below average through the weekend, with lows tonight in the lower 40s to lower 50s and High Sunday in the 70s except for mid to upper 60s southwest.
615 PM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024 (This evening through Sunday) We can now wave goodbye to those slightly cooler temperatures we had today as the upper-level ridge begins to build back across West Central Texas, bringing more hot and dry conditions back to the area.
The high pressure over Texas that nosed into east- central and southeast Arizona this morning is weakening and moving back eastward.
Otherwise, our area will remain under the influence of upper level ridging for the remainder of today and tonight with very similar or slightly warmer temperatures than what we saw yesterday. A developing upper level trough across the Pacific Northwest will result in decreasing H50 heights and thickness values the next couple of days.
804 PM EDT Sat Aug 10 2024 - Mainly dry and cool through Sunday night - Pleasant week ahead, shower chances increase late week - Mainly dry and cool through Sunday night Several of the high res models and even the GFS were producing isolated showers tonight across the area. With the low pressure system slowly pulling away from the region on Sunday, the temperature at 925/850 mb start to rise gradually. The first half of the week should be mostly/completely dry as the upper low currently affecting the Great Lakes region moves off to the east. In it's wake, we'll fall under the influence of building upper level ridging to our west, putting us on the subsidence/dry side of the ridge axis.
720 PM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024 (Tonight through Sunday night) Key Messages: - Heat Advisory in effect for the Coastal Bend - Moderate to major risk of heat-related impacts this weekend Not much change to the forecast as a hot and humid weather pattern continues across South Texas due to the influence of a persistent subtropical ridge. Temperatures today and tomorrow will range in the mid-90s along the coast to the low 100s inland. Tomorrow is less likely to need a Heat Advisory as slightly cooler dew points and surface temperatures are expected as the mid-level ridge flattens out.
With these areas along the northern periphery of an upper-level ridge centered across Texas, a few showers may be possible across the Red River Valley into south Arkansas and southeast Oklahoma overnight. /05/ (This evening through Sunday Night) High pressure over terrafirma is our best friend in August, unfortunately it will be modifying as quickly as it arrived. Current readings are still moreso in the upper 80s than lower 90s, but we will tap on a bit more for the highs. The 1024mb high pressure system is centered over SE MO and sprawling all down the MS River Valley. So we are going a little cooler than NBM for the new day or two on lows.
Low temperatures will range from near 60 north to the lower 70s southeast. 75 Previous short-term discussion: (This afternoon through Sunday) A large but flattened ridge extends across much of the southern half of the CONUS while a broad upper-level low is centered over Ontario. Overall, conditions will be seasonably pleasant for the next couple of days as the ridge maintains control across the region.
542 PM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024 (This afternoon through Sunday night) Mid and upper level ridging is still in full control of our overall weather.
Issued 306 AM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024 Today through Monday: As the 500 mb low slides further northeastward, upper-level ridge begins to back fill in its place across the central CONUS with high pressure building over the Midwest.
A significant cooling trend is set to begin as an upper level trough forms over the West Coast, with forecast highs across the inland regions dropping by up to 5 to 10 degrees from yesterday's highs, resulting in highs in the mid 70s to the low 90s, except in the warmest spots in interior Monterey and San Benito counties where highs could reach values near 100. Overnight humidity recoveries remain poor over the thermal belt; otherwise fire weather conditions will improve with cooler and more moist air moving in.
Readings elsewhere wl be in the 80s today and top out in the lower and mid 90s Mon. Nighttime lows wl range fm the mid 60s to the lower 70s.
Gentle easterly breezes observed along the Reef seem to have kept radiational cooling at bay with temperatures in the island communities reporting in the lower to mid 80s. Meanwhile, another day of forecasted highs in the low 90s paired with dewpoints in the upper 70s has led to the issuance of a Heat Advisory for the Florida Keys. The previously mentioned ridge will be the main feature in control for the early half of the week.
(Monday Night through next Sunday) Rain chances will build back in after Monday, owing primarily to a strengthening upper ridge to our west.
(This evening through Sunday) Conditions across the northern two-thirds of Oklahoma feel more akin to the early morning than middle of the afternoon for mid-August, as widespread precipitation/cloud cover has remained atop a modified (cooler) continental airmass.
Synopsis - Surface analysis early this morning shows strong high pressure in place over MO and western IL. Aloft a deep upper low continued to spin across Ontario and Quebec, while the main upper flow was found across the Rockies, spilling southeast toward the Tennessee River Valley before flowing northeast toward New England. Models suggest the upper flow will begin to redevelop some weak ridging across the western CONUS through the day, resulting in continued northwest flow and subsidence across Central Indiana. The upper low to the northeast is also suggested to drift farther northeast, allowing for less influence across Central Indiana. Look for highs near persistence, in the upper 70s to near 80, while lows tonight may be a tad warmer, in the middle to upper 50s.
(Sunday through Monday) Upper-air analysis is showing high pressure over the southwest CONUS, extending eastward into Texas.
225 AM EDT Sun Aug 11 2024 High pressure will cover the Tennessee Valley and much of the Mid Atlantic tonight through Monday morning as a cold front drifts from eastern Virginia to the Carolina coast. High pressure continues to be the dominant player locally, keeping dew points lower and temperatures slightly below normal.
Aloft, the east to west axis oriented mid to upper level ridge continues across the Gulf states, with a large vertically stacked low north of the Great Lakes, keeping a fairly zonal flow across the northern part of the country. With the slightly higher dewpoints in the lower to mid 70s along and south of I-10, heat index values expected to reach the 105-108 range.
A ridge of high pressure aloft will build over the southern Plains and lower Mississippi Valley for the first half of the work week, which will result in northwest flow aloft over the Quad State. At the surface, no significant return flow is expected, as high pressure remains in control.
Partial clearing during the day is likely, but continued clouds and the passage of high pressure should keep highs on track to the near 80 to lower 80s. A warm front sitting over Oklahoma very slowly lifts northward and eastward as high pressure gradually shifts away from the Quad State. Improvements in moisture and forcing are expected mid-week, with the warm front slowly lifting northeastward.
With limited cloud coverage forecast for the morning period, temperatures will rise to the low to mid 90s across much of the region on Sunday. The setup remains pretty similar on Monday as the high continues to expand over the region.
Temps will be a little cooler than normal thanks to the cold pool aloft and expected clouds/showers. Highs will generally be in the 70s (some 60s over the high terrain) and 50s at night.
- 10-20% chance for light showers and sprinkles this afternoon and tomorrow afternoon - Rain/storm chances increase to 20-40% Wed-Fri Current Conditions/Today: A little more sunshine today as the upper level low that has been the main driver for clouds the last few days shifts further east.
A similar environment exists on Sunday, activity will once again be slow to get going, especially in the cooler boundary layer south of I-40.