Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A deeper trough moving into the Northern Rockies is helping to erode the western US ridge while also strengthening ridging over the southeast US. The last gasps of the persistent, weak, elongated trough over the south central US will be with us again today, providing yet another opportunity for afternoon showers and thunderstorms, mainly across the southeast half of the forecast area. But this trough is perhaps a bit weaker than previously expected, and overall convective coverage today may be similar to what was seen yesterday. As the southeast US ridge becomes a bit more dominant it finally kicks out the lingering trough for Wednesday. The more pronounced trough over the Upper Midwest moves east and develops a more organized frontal boundary to our northwest. Kimble While the trough moves into the Great Lakes, a cold front will push southward behind it.
Satellite imagery shows the high pressure that models place over the Desert Southwest centered on western Arizona has developed farther north about 75 miles south-southeast of Ely NV as a well defined anticyclonic flow with weak disturbances rotating around it. Coverage of showers and thunderstorms rapidly spread across much of the higher terrain of eastern Utah and Western Colorado through the afternoon with the southern mountains continuing to be favored with moisture moving up from the southwest. In the zonal upper-level flow north of I-70, PWATs rise to 125-150% of normal leading to higher chances of afternoon convection over the high terrain north of I-70.
633 AM EDT Tue Jul 15 2025 Weak upper ridging will continue to break down through the mid week, leading to lower daytime temperatures and higher rain chances each day. Upper ridging then returns for the late week and thus weekend, bringing warming temperatures and more typical shower/storm chances. Low pressure and a weak upper trough shift westward today into northern FL. Heights are a little lower today so highs should only reach into the lower to mid 90s.
However as the low pressure system move from the Atlantic over FL today, rain chances will increase.
50 to 70 percent chance for Inyokern and Ridgecrest to exceed 105 Today.
Water vapor imagery reveals an upper wave crossing the region at this hour, supporting recent/ongoing convective initiation across south central SD (along a cold front) and the central/southern Black Hills. The cold front has effectively stalled at this hour across south central SD; otherwise, the surface front has largely cleared our area to the south, as reflected by cooler temperatures and northerly flow. The cold front, aided by convective outflow, will surge southward overnight into early tomorrow. Beyond tomorrow, midlevel zonal flow prevails thru much of the period as low-level thermal ridging gradually expands over the western/central CONUS, which should bring more seasonable temperatures coupled with daily chances for showers/storms.
(Wednesday night through next Tuesday) The global models are indicating pretty much an end to the unsettled pattern and more of a upper level ridge over our area through this weekend. As a result, expect warmer temperatures and dry weather.
-High pressure returns quiet weather this weekend. Daytime highs will climb to the upper 80s across northern lower Wednesday afternoon before a cold front to the northwest slowly progresses southward in the evening hours.
pdf Disorganized low pressure moving westward across Florida will continue to bring showers and gusty winds onshore the Northeast Florida coast today, as the low moves westward across the Florida Peninsula.
A fairly stagnant upper pattern with ridging into the southeast Tennessee valley and southern Appalachians. Given the proximity of the ridge axis near the southern Tennessee state-line the greatest coverage of convection will be along and north of interstate 40.
148 PM EDT Tue Jul 15 2025 Weak high pressure will maintain fair weather tonight.
The highest probability (15-30% chance) for severe weather will focus along and north of a Macomb to Bloomington line.
127 PM EDT Tue Jul 15 2025 Bermuda high pressure along with an inland trough will dominate with mainly localized showers and thunderstorms each afternoon. Highs will be in the upper 80s to lower 90s with lows in the low to mid 70s. Typical summer time conditions expected as mid level ridging builds in through the period. The subtle mid level zonal flow to the north of the ridge allows a very warm westerly flow through the lower levels to develop thus the heat switch will be on. With convection limited hence the building ridge.
And in the low to mid 70s in the Lower Plains. A large area of high pressure over the Northern Plains will gradually move equatorward over the short term, pushing a cold front across Kansas and western CO on Wednesday.
With an established ridge centered over the SE CONUS, the boundary will continue to be a focus of scattered showers and storms through the week. Overnight lows in the lower 70s.
- Much cooler temperatures behind this system will hang around through the end of the week.
Heat indices in the lower to middle 90s for Wednesday.
Keep practicing your heat safety precautions this week and make your weekend plans accordingly! Transient low pressure to our north will increase afternoon breezes across far western Nevada today, which will support a brief 2-4 hour period of elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions. Weak low pressure emerges by the weekend, allowing dry, west to southwest flow to overspread the region.
An upper level trough will move across western Montana today bringing breezy northwest winds this afternoon. Temperatures will be 5-10 degrees cooler than yesterday.
Cooler and less humid late this week. Near Term Trends: Main cold front is over central MN with storms starting to develop from northeast SD into west central MN, but showers and storms have been developing most of the day along outflow from morning storms that crossed Lake Superior and northern Upper Michigan.
Due to cloudy conditions seen on GOES-19 Satelitte, temperatures are still in the lower 80s for those not currently raining and the mid 70s for island communities still experiencing rain. Shower activity for the Lower Keys and their surrounding waters will continue to reduce in strength and coverage while in the Upper Keys moving the opposite direction towards the islands, and could result in more measurable rain. From synopsis, weak low pressure continues to become better organized in the vicinity of the Space Coast. As the weak low pressure shifts off to the west and into the Gulf, high pressure will build in behind it strengthening the pressure gradient. High pressure remains anchored over the central Atlantic with its western periphery extending into the Keys through the weekend with gentle to moderate east to southeast breezes continuing, occasionally becoming moderate to fresh.
The highest rain chances will be in the Davis Mountains. Afternoon highs Wednesday climb to near normal (mid 90s for most and 80s at higher terrain) as high pressure builds over Texas.
(Tonight through Wednesday Night) The main weather story for this short-term will continue to be the heat, as upper-level ridging will remain in place for the next few days. Given the placement of the ridge, afternoon heat index values should climb above 105 degrees in the afternoon for our western zones, with lower heat index values anticipated east.
Upper troughing to the north through the Pacific Northwest is suppressing high pressure over our region today. Inland temperatures are forecast to be 5-8 degrees cooler today than yesterday as a result. The low-level inversion has strengthened today, and will remain strong to moderately strong this week.
Discussion: For today, high pressure remains to our west while Invest 93L just pushed into the Florida pan handle near St Augustine. For tomorrow, rain chances shift to central Georgia as the low pressure system moves across Florida. With the rainfall though, despite temps in the low to mid 90s, should see heat indices stay in the 100-105 range.
Looking at the bigger picture, the aforementioned system moves west on the south side of upper level high pressure situated over the Southeast.
- Cooler and drier for Wednesday. Satellite imagery shows tight closed low dropping southeast through far western Montana and the ID panhandle this afternoon. Upper jet sagging south along with surface cold front will tap into slightly increased moisture availability pooled across East Idaho today. Cold front associated with this feature drops south through the region late this evening through the overnight, decreasing convection. Wednesday still looks slightly cooler and drier across the region.
202 PM EDT Tue Jul 15 2025 Weak high pressure will maintain fair weather tonight.
- An upper ridge overhead will limit cloud cover and thunderstorm activity this afternoon allowing afternoon highs to climb into the mid to upper 90s.
Considering the warmer morning and the expected highs this afternoon, the Heat Advisory will continue for west side valleys today. Tonight, temperatures will only cool to the low to mid-60s for most spots west of the Cascades. Eastside lows will fall to the low/mid- 50s tonight.
- Temperatures should cool for Wednesday behind a cold front.
It will be generally more of the same with the muggy and very warm air in place but with continued weak ridging over the area tomorrow we may see more isolated than scattered convection in the afternoon and evening with highs in the upper 80s/low 90s and dewpoints in the low/mid 70s.
- Temperatures climb back to around 90 by midweek, continuing to gradually increase into the lower 90s through the weekend.
532 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025 A dry pattern continues across Deep South Texas with high pressure generally in place along the lower Texas coast.
634 PM EDT Tue Jul 15 2025 Weak high pressure will maintain clear skies tonight.
Winds remain out of the north through tomorrow afternoon, with cooler temperatures expected.
801 PM EDT Tue Jul 15 2025 Bermuda high pressure along with an inland trough will dominate with mainly localized showers and thunderstorms each afternoon. Highs will be in the upper 80s to lower 90s with lows in the low to mid 70s. Typical summer time conditions expected as mid level ridging builds in through the period. The subtle mid level zonal flow to the north of the ridge allows a very warm westerly flow through the lower levels to develop thus the heat switch will be on. With convection limited hence the building ridge.
Meanwhile, a weak low pressure is churning across northern Florida as it slowly moves westward into the Gulf. Lastly, high pressure is attempting to nose in from the east, with a weak surge behind the leading edge. The real players will be the outflow boundary and in the incoming wind surge as the high builds from east to west. Already some convection can be seen along this leading edge of the returning high pressure. As a weak low pressure shifts off to the west and into the Gulf, high pressure will build in behind it strengthening the pressure gradient. High pressure remains anchored over the central Atlantic with its western periphery extending into the Keys through the weekend with gentle to moderate east to southeast breezes continuing, occasionally becoming moderate to fresh.
With elevated dewpoints in the low 70s remaining in place, the slightly warmer temps in the mid 90s will allow heat indices to soar over 100, with locations in NW and north central Alabama seeing the highest apparent temps near and just above 105.
High temperatures will remain above average, but tomorrows highs are expected to be a few degrees cooler than today.
Spotty showers will continue overnight mainly for our inland western zones near and north of the circulation near an inverted trough axis as it retrogrades. A broad area of low pressure will continue to track westward across north Florida tonight with elevated east to southeast winds over the local waters and combined seas of 3-5 ft occasionally near 6 ft brining Small Craft Exercise Caution conditions to local waters.
Breezy conditions persist across the region behind today's dry cold front.
(Tonight through next Tuesday) Issued previously at 1210 PM PDT Tue Jul 15 2025 WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: An area of high pressure will be centered over Arizona today. An upper-level trough of low pressure will dive southward across Northern Nevada this afternoon into this evening. This trough of low pressure should provide enough lift and atmospheric instability for thunderstorm development this afternoon in most of Northern and Central Nevada. Here are probabilities of triple digit heat for select locations in Northern and Central Nevada on Tuesday, July 15th, 2025: Winnemucca - 80% Battle Mountain - 75% Crescent Valley - 75% Elko - 50% Carlin - 50% West Wendover - 30% A ridge of high pressure will extend northwestward across Northern Nevada Wednesday.
313 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 - Dry and cooler today and tomorrow as high pressure settles across the region.
219 AM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025 A series of very weak troughs and fronts will impact Eastern NC this week with Bermuda high pressure anchored offshore. The high builds into Eastern NC late week through the weekend with dangerous heat and humidity. - Hot and humid with scattered showers and thunderstorms Latest analysis shows high pressure offshore with weak troughing inland. Hot and muggy again with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s, and heat indices in the lower 100s.
224 AM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025 Bermuda high pressure along with an inland trough will dominate with mainly localized showers and thunderstorms each afternoon. Highs near 90 and lows in the lower to mid 70s. Ridge will continue to build in the mid levels with H5 heights increasing to 596 dam and deep westerly downslope flow in the low to mid levels by Fri. May see a front/trough run by to the north Fri night, but ridge should keep convection limited for the most part.
With the new flow pattern setting in behind the low pressure system, Sea Breeze Flow Regime 7 us expected through the end of the week, which will bring a more historically familiar Florida summertime pattern of showers and thunderstorms mainly occurring in the afternoon.
It ultimately looks like this boundary will be in the Highway 36 to I-70 corridor by the afternoon. High freezing levels and slow storm motions or even training of storms will lead to locally very heavy rainfall.
236 AM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025 Weak upper ridging will continue to break down today, leading to lower daytime temperatures and scattered shower/storms during the afternoon and evening. Upper ridging then returns for the late week and this weekend, bringing warming temperatures, muggy conditions, and more typical shower/storm chances. Key Message(s): - Isolated to Scattered Storms this afternoon Skies will likely be mostly clear early this morning with temps falling into the low/mid 70s across the area. With crossover temps in the low 70s we may see some patchy fog around sunrise but fog should be restricted to fog prone locations such as near streams and bodies of water. The highest chances are in the eastern Midlands and Pee Dee where subsidence is weaker and the sea breeze helps trigger convection.
158 AM MDT Wed Jul 16 2025 KEY MESSAGES: 1) Rain will diminish today as upper trough moves through eastern Montana.
This will continue the low-end threat for strong winds and localized flooding.
A low pressure currently situated over Montana will progress eastward today, but will still provide elevated afternoon breezes.
Because of this, nighttime lows will drop into the low to mid 70s areawide. This combined with daytime highs peaking the mid to upper 90s, and dewpoints in the mid/upper 70s (with a few areas seeing dewpoints in the low 80s) will allow for heat indices across our CWA to be in the 105-110 degree range.
The highest probability (15-30% chance) for severe weather will focus along and north of a Peoria to Bloomington line. A cold front is set to pass through the Middle Mississippi Valley this evening and overnight, bringing storms along with it. Highs today will get up into the low to mid 90s, and with increasing moisture ahead of the afternoon system, heat indices will be also increasing. After the cold front passes through tonight, we will see a brief cool down tomorrow, with highs only getting up into the mid 70s to low 80s north of I-72 and mid 80s to low 90s south of I-72.
Thunderstorms will develop ahead of an approaching cold front west of the area later today. However, as the cold front approaches overnight, additional convection may pop up. Lows tonight will be in the lower 70s.
153 AM MDT Wed Jul 16 2025 - Cooler and drier today.
Otherwise warmer and drier today as upper ridging builds in from the east. South winds will increase slightly today, becoming gusty at times mid morning into the afternoon as a lee trough develops.
243 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 - Widely scattered afternoon and overnight storms are expected along a southward sagging cold front.
Although the low level vorticity looks to be lower than it was on Tuesday for now.
410 AM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025 Sub-tropical high pressure will extend from near Bermuda to the Carolinas throughout the week. The highest moisture levels will gradually shift a bit west and north today with the upper ridge building in the southeast U. The highest probabilities will be along the SE Coastal Plain (sea breeze) and tucked up along the Blue Ridge. Lows generally in the lower 70s west and mid 70s east.
High 80's to 90's are forecast for much of the interior, with the highest temperatures found in Trinity County and northeastern Humboldt County. Along the coast, the marine layer is limited to the lowest 1000 ft, and rising, early this morning. The marine layer is expected to deepen over the coming days as the ridge continues to weaken.
Swrly sfc winds acrs the Srn Cntrl US and H500 high pressure bcmg centered over the FA wl contribute to temps once again climbing to near or at the century mark over portions of the FA.
- A cold front crossing southwest Kansas tonight will bring a brief break in the heat.
(Today) Bottom line up front: Heat Advisory is in effect from 10am to 7pm for northwest AL and north central AL as highs climb into the low to mid 90s and Heat Index values reach 105 to 108 degrees. High pressure remains anchored across the Southeast today with a tropical disturbance off the FL Panhandle. Regardless of the convection, daytime highs will climb into the low to mid 90s. With dewpoints remaining elevated in the lower 70s, this will push Heat Index values to 100 degrees and above.
310 AM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025 Sub-tropical high pressure will extend from near Bermuda to the Carolinas throughout the week. The highest moisture levels will gradually shift a bit west and north today with the upper ridge building in the southeast U. The highest probabilities will be along the SE Coastal Plain (sea breeze) and tucked up along the Blue Ridge. Lows generally in the lower 70s west and mid 70s east.
Heat and humidity may make it feel like upper 90s in parts of the lowlands this afternoon; however, apparent temperatures could be somewhat tempered by precipitation. A low pressure system, which is projected to enter the Great Lakes region tonight, continues to track east toward northern New England and drags a cold front into the Middle Ohio Valley by Thursday night.
636 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 (Today) Bottom line up front: Heat Advisory is in effect from 10am to 7pm for northwest AL and north central AL as highs climb into the low to mid 90s and Heat Index values reach 105 to 108 degrees. High pressure remains anchored across the Southeast today with a tropical disturbance off the FL Panhandle. Regardless of the convection, daytime highs will climb into the low to mid 90s. With dewpoints remaining elevated in the lower 70s, this will push Heat Index values to 100 degrees and above.
410 AM MDT Wed Jul 16 2025 - Cooler and drier today. Expect cooler and drier weather today behind a cold front that passed through the region last night. The ridge will begin to amplify once again on Thursday. We will see a return of low to mid 90s across the lower elevations.
Southerly flow around the system will continue to drive moisture into the area and weakening the suppressive ridge further. The highest chances will be in the southwest and far north CWA. Dewpoints as high as the mid 70s and highs in the low to mid 90s will drive heat indices between 100 and 105.
On Thursday a weak upper low moves into nrn Mexico and shift the upper level flow to the SE.
The higher chance for showers/storms will be later this evening into tonight (Wed. Temperatures are expected to warm into the low/mid 90s again today with lows in the upper 60s to mid 70s.
- Precipitation chances drop off and temperatures increase by the end of the week as ridging builds in aloft.
- Temperatures gradually increase into the lower 90s through the weekend. Today will be another warm and partly sunny day with highs in the low 90s featuring thunderstorms in the afternoon once again.
- Moldan /Issued 334 AM MDT Wed Jul 16 2025/ - Meteorological Overview: The embedded wave responsible for the cooler temperatures and precipitation is beginning to exit eastward early this morning and should be well east of the area by the evening. Cooler temperatures remain in most areas today but begin to trend closer to normal, especially in Southwest Montana where the cooler air struggled to reach with this previous system. Lingering moisture, sufficiently warm surface temperatures, and forcing from the troughing will support scattered shower and thunderstorm development by early afternoon across the Hi-Line.
Quiet conditions expected tonight through at least Thursday morning across the Four State Region, as high pressure at the surface and aloft will remain over the area. This low could develop some tropical features as it is expected to push westward towards the Louisiana Coast by Thursday afternoon.
635 AM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025 Bermuda high pressure along with an inland trough will dominate with mainly localized showers and thunderstorms each afternoon. Highs near 90 and lows in the lower to mid 70s. Ridge will continue to build in the mid levels with H5 heights increasing to 596 dam and deep westerly downslope flow in the low to mid levels by Fri. May see a front/trough run by to the north Fri night, but ridge should keep convection limited for the most part.
629 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 - Widely scattered afternoon and overnight storms are expected along a southward sagging cold front. The mid/upper ridge over the Lower Mississippi Valley area is progged to amplify on Fri while retrograding over the Southern Plains. A cold front will move slowly southward today arriving in central KS this afternoon/early evening.
- A cold front crossing southwest Kansas tonight will bring a brief break in the heat. Highs today will be in the mid to upper 90s while on Thursday the highs are only expected in the upper 70s to mid 80s.
615 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 - Markedly cooler midweek temperatures with highs 15 to 20 degrees below normal today and 10 to 15 degrees below normal Thursday. With the upper trough and the cloud cover, temperatures will be 15 to 20 degrees below climo averages this afternoon, topping out only in the 60s. Return flow begins to develop by 18z as the high slowly shifts east into MN and a warm front develops along the southwestern SD/NE border, extending off a Rocky Mountain low in Wyoming.
Thunderstorm chances remain low (< 20%), with the greatest chance in our eastern counties aided by terrain and a slight increase in convergence as an inverted trough associated the tropical wave in the northern Gulf swings through GA into eastern AL.
658 AM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025 A series of very weak troughs and fronts will impact Eastern NC this week with Bermuda high pressure anchored offshore. The high builds into Eastern NC late week through the weekend with dangerous heat and humidity. - Hot and humid with scattered showers and thunderstorms Latest analysis shows high pressure offshore with weak troughing inland. Hot and muggy again with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s, and heat indices in the lower 100s.