Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
142 AM EDT Wed Aug 27 2025 High pressure remains in control through much of the rest of the week. Cooler and drier weather continues through the workweek with some increase in moisture over the weekend that may lead to an uptick in rain chances As of 1233 AM EDT Wednesday: Some high-based stratocu was noted east of the mtns on satellite imagery, but otherwise it was clear across the rest of the fcst area. Super quiet weather is expected across the region over the next 24 hours as we remain under a broad cyclonic flow aloft under a large upper trof. As for lows tonight, there could be a bit of a warmer rebound because of increased cloud cover overnight, but temps will still be 5-10 degrees below normal.
Locations with the highest probability for runoff issues are: - Highway 95 from Riggins to White Bird in Idaho. Locations with the highest probability (25-35%) for thunderstorms, will be KSMN, KBTM and KHRF.
136 AM EDT Wed Aug 27 2025 - Cool and Mostly Dry Conditions This Week - Rain and Storms Likely Thursday - Cool and Mostly Dry Conditions This Week Cooler than normal temperatures continue with highs mostly in the 70s and lows in the 40s-50s. - Rain and Storms Likely Thursday The brief return of warmer low-level temperatures with higher moisture Wed night will set up likely showers and a few thunderstorms for Thursday, which will be in the vicinity of a cold front dropping in from the north with somewhat favorable upper-level jet dynamics. Winds increase Wednesday Night into Thursday as a cold front crosses the Great Lakes.
140 AM EDT Wed Aug 27 2025 High pressure will prevail to our north through Thursday, then shift offshore. High pressure will continue to build across the forecast area today and tonight. At H5, the broad based on a longwave trough will slowly push east across the region. The mid-levels will consist of a strengthening trough over the eastern third of the country, causing heights to gradually lower over our area. At the surface, High pressure will be located to our north Thursday morning, while a stationary front remains to our south. The High should shift offshore later Thursday.
Upper pattern remains highly amplified with upper ridging over the western high plains, bookmarked on both ends by troughing. On the surface, high pressure over the Ohio Valley will provide dry conditions for the majority of the day but some of the CAMS guidance is bringing some precipitation into the NW corner of the state by late in the afternoon.
200 AM MDT Wed Aug 27 2025 KEY MESSAGES: - Dry weather with warmer temperatures will continue through Thursday morning.
412 AM EDT Wed Aug 27 2025 - Rain and Thunderstorms Thursday - Dry and Warming Up Into This Weekend - Rain and Thunderstorms Thursday Today will be similar to yesterday with highs slightly warmer in the mid 70s. The low level jet and warm air advection will provide some lift late tonight into Thursday morning as a cold front moves south into the region.
352 AM EDT Wed Aug 27 2025 A strong dome of Canadian high pressure will build tonight into Thursday morning with near to below normal temperatures for the rest of the week.
Would not be surprised to see a few locations locally reach the low 40s as it seems unlikely low temperatures Wednesday morning would end up being warmer compared to this morning. Patchy fog will also be possible, mainly in the vicinity of rivers and lakes where the warmer waters will make it more likely to exceed the crossover temperature. Late Wednesday night into Thursday, an upper level trough will dig down across the Great Lakes region.
Discussion: Troughing is expected to lose its grip today as higher heights are forecast to move in from the west, meaning the much cooler temps aren't lasting forever. However, this morning will be the "coolest" with lows in the 50s and 40s, possibly some 30s across the highest elevations (Mount LeConte, for example). Thursday through the end of the forecast period, temperatures will generally range from the low to mid 80s in the valley, a bit warmer than earlier in the week. Pattern-wise through the end of the week can be defined by troughing over the NE U. and ridging over the central and western states. High pressure will dominate at the surface the next couple of days.
- Temperatures will trend cooler this week thanks to rain and cloud cover. The plume of moisture begins to get pulled northwards tomorrow with a deep ridge building through Wyoming, Montana, and into Canada. On Thursday the forecast area will still be situated on the northern periphery of the high pressure ridge.
Despite having more episodes or "wings" of AC acrs the area, expect a warmer day in the continued return flow regime especially in the southwestern half of the CWA where they will be in a type of warm sector of a weak developing warm front in the northern CWA.
(This afternoon through Wednesday) Key Messages: - Dry and occasionally breezy with cooler than normal overnight temperatures. Benign and pleasant conditions will continue across the region through the middle of the week as a stout mid-level trough remains parked over the Eastern US. Deep low to mid level NW flow on the backside of the trough will reinforce a very dry airmass over Georgia, with PWAT values of 0. WIn the higher terrain in far NE GA, lows could even fall into the upper 40s.
Light, backed, westerly flow overtop will provide some WAA with highs a few degrees warmer (mid 70s). Cold front then slides south through the area Wednesday afternoon-early evening with additional shower chances.
150 AM EDT Wed Aug 27 2025 High pressure then builds over the area today, and moves south of the region for Thursday.
Main short wave and associated cold front is in northern parts of NW Ontario and this will drop south. Models do keep majority of the showers and isold thunder for late morning into mid aftn as actual cold front drops from Ontario into northern Minnesota. Cooler air with front is to our east more so in northeast MN. So temp impact for Thursday highs will be minor and may be warmer than what NBM gives which is about a 3-5 degree drop. The trend for the Labor Day weekend is for sunnier conditions as the weak upper level lows are more into South Dakota and perhaps southwest ND and Montana.
221 AM EDT Wed Aug 27 2025 High pressure brings brings dry and unseasonably cool conditions through the week.
Otherwise, much cooler conditions with widespread cloud cover, much of the area will only top out in the 60s and 70s. Meanwhile, another complex of storms will develop across the High Plains of southeast Colorado this afternoon and evening. In addition, a retreating warm front will lift north on the back side of the exiting storms, which will result in much warmer temperatures, especially across the western half of the area.
119 AM EDT Wed Aug 27 2025 Dry and cool conditions are expected for the forecast area today courtesy of high pressure. With a reinforcing dry, cool air mass expected mid-week, cooler than normal temperatures and dry weather are likely through Thursday. With the high pressure pushing into the region, even drier air is expected along with it.
Across north Texas and southwestern Oklahoma, potential for clearing skies late in the afternoon, along with continued northward advance of a warm front, will allow temperatures to warm back closer to normal late August readings (mid-80s to low-90s).
But, the upper ridge will keep the PacNW relatively warm through tomorrow. Haze may linger across the lowlands through overnight, mainly due to the plumes of smoke from the fires over northern Idaho. However based on recent model guidance, the forecast area may have more of widespread showers with less likely (<20%) for thunderstorms over the lowlands tomorrow. Therefore, we then might see dry conditions returning with the highs rising back to the 90s.
Come Thursday, high pressure building over central TX will dry out the upper layers of the atmosphere, thus reducing rain chances to generally less than 10% for the remainder of the week.
Upper level troughing will persist over the Great Lakes region throughout the period. Clearing skies and thermal trough lingering will result in another cool night with lows dropping into the 40s. Quiet weather on Wednesday owning to high pressure sliding across the Ohio Valley and up into lower MI. Mid level ridge axis passing overhead will help bring a slight boost to temps, back into the mid 70s. Next chance of showers and thunderstorms come Thursday as a upper level trough swings down through the state and sends a cold front southeastward through the area in the afternoon. High pressure drops south out of Canada behind this trough keeping the cooler air in the region and providing for a quiet weekend ahead. The ECMWF suggests the coldest air we've seen in a while with 850mb temps falling to the low single digits.
High pressure will persist through the day, shifting slightly to our east by Thursday. After a cool start to the morning, daytime highs will rise into the low to mid 80s for most locations.
- Temperatures will trend cooler this week thanks to rain and cloud cover.
High pressure today centered over Illinois provides crisp morning lows well into the 40s followed by pleasant afternoon. A stout 50 knot 500-mb jet rotates through Michigan on Thursday followed by trailing cold front. Moisture transport is still somewhat lackluster as Pacific moisture makes a meandering journey atop a West Coast ridge. Pair this with today's expansive high pressure and the result is a dry subcloud layer Thursday morning per soundings and time- height cross sections.
Longwave trough remains in place across the northeast United States with a ridge over the Rockies into the High Plains. The air mass under the high remains cool and dry. A disturbance along with an associated cold front will rotate into the eastern trough as well, leading to modest instability developing Thursday afternoon ahead of the front. A cold front will be pushing through the area on Thursday night.
Lows tonight may be some of the coolest we have seen in quite a while dipping into the lower to middle 60's for most locations.
On Thursday, an upper level trof will extend from the Great Lakes region southwest through the middle Mississippi and lower Ohio valleys.
Forecast: Fairly anomalous 500 mb trough is pushing over the east coast this morning with height anomalies as much as -18 dam. Afternoon highs will rise into the 80s in most locations, with a few upper 70s in more elevated locations (and lower on some of the higher peaks).
High pressure will remain in control of the weather across the Midwest through midweek. Highs in the mid 70s this afternoon will give way to temps dipping into the 40s again in spots overnight under favorable radiational cooling conditions as the ridge axis inches east over central Illinois. Light south to southwest winds will overspread central Illinois Wednesday behind the ridge axis helping to prop up temps a few degrees with highs in the mid to upper 70s. At the surface, high pressure will settle south of the Ohio Valley Thursday. A cold front associated with the northern low will push south across the Great Lakes while a warm front will set up to our southwest associated with the southern stream wave.
Forecast soundings and model data show a moist atmospheric profile, though the lower third of the atmosphere has adequate T/Td spread, showing drier air near the surface. Light showers will be possible across much of the area, minus the high desert. Thursday will see mostly cloudy skies for much of the region as the tropical moisture moves in, so this will be the coolest day of the week with some places across the lower deserts staying below 100 degrees.
- Temperatures will generally be a little warmer in the mid 70s to around 80 for the rest of the week into the weekend. A highly amplified upper level pattern remains in place through the short term with a long wave trough east of the Mississippi Valley and a ridge to the west. Winds will turn to a more southerly direction as the high moves east, and this will bring warmer air back into the Mid Mississippi Valley. Our lows this morning were likely the coldest for the foreseeable future, but temperatures will still be well below normal tonight in the low to mid 50s.
The highest probabilities (30-50%) are located over northeast Iowa this afternoon. At this time, the highest rain chances (30-50%) are north of Interstate 94.
Both cloud cover and whatever breeze can be maintained will be a factor in determining the low end of the min temp range, but on balance it will be partly cloudy to mainly clear and rather chilly/crisp with fcst lows 40-55F or 5-15F below climo; not far from approaching record minT territory at a few sites.
Currently, there is a deep upper-level trough over the eastern CONUS with an additional upper-level trough off the coast of California. Between the two troughs, upper-level ridging is in place keeping strong northwesterly flow aloft in our area. At the surface, majority of Kansas remains under an expansive area of high pressure. Ensembles continue to have high probabilities of over an inch of rain with the highest chances south and east of the turnpike. Given expansive cloud cover, high temperatures will remain in the low to mid 70s.
As these showers slide eastward, they will run into drier and more stable air of the aforementioned large high pressure airmass, thus dissipating before reaching the southern extent of the MN/WI state line. With the center of the high pressure airmass settling to the east of the WFO MPX coverage area, this will result in gradual warming through the weekend (although with temperatures still remaining slightly below normal for late August into early September). The only noticeable difference in temperatures will come in the Wednesday-Thursday timeframe as deterministic models along with WPC guidance have good agreement on a cold front dropping southeast through the region.
Tonight, an upper trough over the eastern CONUS is keeping northwest flow over the Lower Ohio Valley. Heading into Thursday, the overall pattern remains the same with the upper trough remaining over the eastern CONUS and northwest flow over the CWA with high pressure at the surface, but with the center of the high off to the east, some warm air advection could help boost temperatures slightly, remaining in the low 80s most places.
(Tonight through Thursday Night) Long-wave troughing will prevail across the eastern CONUS over the the coming days which coincides with continued presence of high pressure in the region.
Surface obs showed high pressure centered over IA and northern MO with relatively dry air in place across the forecast area. Operational models show weak perturbations possible within the flow, but given the low amplitude this is a lower predictability pattern. This pattern should also favor high pressure over the Upper Midwest to continue to ridge into the area keeping more temperate weather in place.
645 AM EDT Wed Aug 27 2025 - Rain and Thunderstorms Thursday - Dry and Warming Up Into This Weekend - Rain and Thunderstorms Thursday Today will be similar to yesterday with highs slightly warmer in the mid 70s. The low level jet and warm air advection will provide some lift late tonight into Thursday morning as a cold front moves south into the region.
1013 AM EDT Wed Aug 27 2025 High pressure then builds over the area today, and moves south of the region for Thursday.
732 AM EDT Wed Aug 27 2025 High pressure then builds over the area today, and moves south of the region for Thursday.
With dewpoints a few degrees lower, it is anticipated the morning lows will drop to the low to mid 50s by sunrise, the coolest temperatures since the start of summer. An upper level long wave trough remains across the eastern half of North American. As such, NW flow along the base of the trough will continue to moderate our airmass with cool continental air prevailing. At the surface, high pressure will translate east through the Ohio Valley yielding clear and calm conditions locally. After a seasonably chilly morning, afternoon highs will rise to the high 70s and low 80s before another cool night arrives tonight.
Beginning tomorrow, a trough from off the coast of California looks to move inland and flatten the ridge over the Southwest.
637 AM EDT Wed Aug 27 2025 High pressure will prevail to our north through Thursday, then shift offshore. High pressure will continue to build across the forecast area today and tonight. At H5, the broad based on a longwave trough will slowly push east across the region. The mid-levels will consist of a strengthening trough over the eastern third of the country, causing heights to gradually lower over our area. At the surface, High pressure will be located to our north Thursday morning, while a stationary front remains to our south. The High should shift offshore later Thursday.
641 AM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025 Updated aviation portion for 12Z TAF issuance - Showers and a few thunderstorms move across the area along a cold front late this evening and overnight. The main focus is on a cold front coming through Wisconsin tonight, and temperatures approaching freezing Thursday night. Readings will be warmer today (highs in the low to mid-70s) as west winds drive in a small wedge of warmer air.
As such, convection will start over the higher terrain before becoming more widespread as the afternoon progresses.
Below normal high temperatures today, then trending warmer into this upcoming weekend. Confidence today on the low to medium side. Min RHs will be 30-40 percent in the low elevations and 40-60 percent in the mountains through Thursday then min RHs drop to 15-25 percent in the low elevations and to 20-35 percent in the mountains through the weekend.
639 AM EDT Wed Aug 27 2025 High pressure remains in control through much of the rest of the week. Cooler and drier weather continues through the workweek with some increase in moisture over the weekend that may lead to an uptick in rain chances As of 633 AM EDT Wednesday: Some high-based stratocu was noted east of the mtns on satellite imagery. Super quiet weather is expected across the region over the next 24 hours as we remain under a broad cyclonic flow aloft under a large upper trof. As for lows tonight, there could be a bit of a warmer rebound because of increased cloud cover overnight, but temps will still be 5-10 degrees below normal.
622 AM EDT Wed Aug 27 2025 Dry and cool conditions are expected for the forecast area today courtesy of high pressure. With a reinforcing dry, cool air mass expected mid-week, cooler than normal temperatures and dry weather are likely through Thursday. With the high pressure pushing into the region, even drier air is expected along with it.
633 AM EDT Wed Aug 27 2025 High pressure brings brings dry and unseasonably cool conditions through the week.
900 AM EDT Wed Aug 27 2025 A strong dome of Canadian high pressure will build over the Mid-Atlantic through Thursday morning with near to below normal temperatures for the rest of the week.
HiRes and synoptic scale guidance has struggled with the weak forcing offered by the weak upper level low meandering off the coast of SoCal.
High pressure has shifted east into TX this morning, with Utah now under a more southwesterly flow aloft.
637 AM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025 - High pressure shifts a little farther eastward across the MS River and our NE winds will veer to E and eventually SE.
(Rest of Today and Tonight) Tranquil weather across the Tennessee Valley today, with high pressure at the surface remaining the dominant weather feature, while northwesterly flow aloft is helping to reinforce this cooler, drier air mass. Expect afternoon highs to reach the low to mid 80s, with Min RH values between 30-35% making it feel quite comfortable outside. These clouds will help keep temperatures warmer by 5-10 degrees, with lows remaining in the upper 50s to lower 60s.
623 AM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025 (Tonight through Thursday night) Persistent east coast trough will remain in place through the period, with multiple disturbances moving around it. First disturbance will cause the old frontal boundary to pull back northward as a warm front by late Thursday.
* Slight risk of excessive rainfall in Northern Elko County today * Marginal risk of excessive rainfall elsewhere across the forecast area today * Marginal risk of excessive rainfall within much of Nevada Thursday (Today through next Wednesday) WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Upper level ridge remains situated over the Great Basin today while a region of low pressure moves south toward the Oregon coast.
A cold front was dropping southward from Ontario in association with a lobe of mid-level vorticity rotating through the parent trough. The NBM continues to show probabilities for minimum temps less than 37 degrees of 50-90% across north-central Wisconsin with small probabilities (~10%) for near freezing temperatures along the Michigan border.
- Potential for flash flooding due to heavy rainfall from slow- moving thunderstorms through tonight A potent low-pressure system is spreading soaking rain across the region today, fueled by a near-record amount of atmospheric moisture. This abundance of moisture, combined with lift from the low and instability from daytime heating, will generate intense showers and thunderstorms. Locations with the highest probability for runoff issues include: - Highway 95 from Riggins to White Bird in Idaho - Skalkaho and East Fork Roads in the Sapphire Range of Montana - Highway 93 south of Salmon, Idaho Backcountry travel is strongly discouraged this afternoon through tonight due to the potential for hazardous conditions.
Low pressure will pass south of the region late week, followed by another cool high pressure for the weekend. It should be a bit warmer with highs 78-84 NW to S. A weak cold front will approach from the NW on Thursday night. This will keep the boundary layer mixed and keep temperatures a bit warmer.
A large scale eastern CONUS trough will persist through the short term period. A weak cold front will approach from the north toward the end of the period, but will be moisture starved.
High pressure over the Ohio Valley will continue drifting east through Thursday night. The low level jet increases ahead of the wave across the southeast Plains producing moderate to strong moisture convergence near the MO/KS/OK/AR border. Otherwise, little change in the temperature forecast with the slow warming trend into the low to mid 80s in most locations, except where thicker cloud cover will suppress highs across the Ozarks.
The best precipitation potential will be across the higher terrain of SW Idaho.
Temperatures in the low 70s at issuance characterize another pleasant evening across SE Michigan. Meanwhile, an upper low (currently located over James Bay) will plunge south toward New England tonight and Thursday, driving a cold front through the Great Lakes as it does so. A compact mid-level wave trails closely behind the front, pivoting around the upper low and trending the trough axis toward a neutral tilt.
- Cooler temperatures stick around through the holiday weekend with highs in the mid 70s to low 80s with periodic chances for showers and thunderstorms (30-50% chance). Water vapor imagery this afternoon depicts a mid- to upper-level ridge over the southern Plains, while a high amplitude trough dominates the eastern CONUS. Heading into the holiday weekend, the ridge over the central Plains will gradually dampen and retrograde toward the Four Corners region.
353 PM EDT Wed Aug 27 2025 High pressure builds east towards the Mid-Atlantic tonight as a cold front approaches from the north.
242 PM EDT Wed Aug 27 2025 High pressure brings brings dry and unseasonably cool conditions through the week.
Precipitation chances should come to an end through the first half of Labor Day weekend as subsidence associated with mid level ridging centered over Central Texas builds over Deep South Texas.