Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
(Tonight through Thursday night) Key Messages: - Areas of Fog Possible This Morning - Well above normal temperatures today then cooling down to near normal for Thanksgiving behind a cold front. Decreasing dewpoint depressions and light winds will foster fog and low stratus development this morning, with the highest chances for pockets of dense fog being over inland areas (although a persistent stratus deck may limit this potential over western portions of the area). Fog/stratus should burn off by mid-morning and breezy and warm southerly flow will develop as weak low pressure progresses through the Southern Plains. The cold front associated with the aforementioned low will shift into northern portions of the area in the pre-dawn hours Thursday morning and will clear our southern border by mid- morning.
Discussion: For today, surface ridging will give way to tightening pressure gradient late as a system moves into the Ohio and Tennessee valleys with cyclogenesis over the mid-Mississippi valley. The strong 850mb jet will also produce windy conditions across the higher elevations, mainly across the Smoky Mountains from this evening until mid-morning Thanksgiving day. Cooler day is on tap.
1058 PM CST Tue Nov 26 2024 - Light rain potential (20-55% chance) Wednesday afternoon and evening with the highest chances across central Missouri.
1241 AM EST Wed Nov 27 2024 (Rest of today through Wednesday) High pressure remains in control through mid week, with westerly mid/upper level flow keeping a dry airmass in place. High temps today and Wednesday will generally be in the lower 80s.
221 AM CST Wed Nov 27 2024 - Patchy freezing drizzle and fog will result in low visibilities and slippery spots over portions of northeast North Dakota this morning.
Drier and cooler air sets in behind a weak cold front pushing south through our area by early tomorrow morning. Satellite shows some patchy fog and/or stratus beneath the high cloud for portions of the North Bay and Central Coast. Further fog and stratus development would be dependent on breaks in the high clouds or clearing. (This evening through Wednesday) A steady stream of clouds with occasional light rain/drizzle will persist through the remainder of today and this evening across the Central Coast, as a cooler and drier airmass works its way south from NorCal. Overnight lows tonight will be about 5-10 degrees cooler than what we saw early this morning. With less cloud cover tomorrow, we'll see highs increase only slightly from today, mainly in the low/mid 60s, upper 50s along the coast.
Expect high pressure to gradually build across the region on Wednesday lasting through the weekend. Thus impacts will primarily revolve around area of overnight/morning fog and cooler low temperatures. The pesky area of low pressure which had been sitting off the coast the last several days has finally transitioned into an open wave trough and pushed inland through southern Oregon today. Thursday appears very similar with not much change - cooler and dry with morning fog/low clouds.
Mid and high clouds are expected to thicken overnight over srn sections while the lower deck up north may tend to break up somewhat and/or retreat to the north. - Trending Drier Wednesday/Wednesday Night Westerly winds weaken this evening as low pressure continues to move northeast and high pressure passes to our south. That night, the modified arctic air mass and associated troughing out of Canada sets up across the Great Lakes region sending 850mb temps crashing below - 10C.
1104 PM CST Tue Nov 26 2024 (Tonight through Wednesday Night) Issued at 133 PM CST Tue Nov 26 2024 Cool temperatures in the wake of a cold front have been the story today, along with some widespread low and mid level clouds. Winds become light Wednesday night with lows dropping into the 50s and 60s as the next cold front begins to move through the area near sunrise.
1106 PM CST Tue Nov 26 2024 Updated at 1052 PM CST Tue Nov 26 2024 - Cold front tomorrow with the potential for light precipitation Wednesday night.
The wind speeds back off by Thanksgiving night with lows settling into the lower to mid 20s.
1122 PM CST Tue Nov 26 2024 - Light rain to flurries Wednesday - Colder Wednesday - Cool and dry weather continuing Thursday onward An upper level progressive and positively tilted trof will move across the greater region Wednesday. Low level stratus is then forecast to develop along and behind a cold front pushing southeast through western Kansas early Wednesday morning, resulting in potential MVFR cigs developing in vicinity of all TAF sites generally after 12-14Z with IFR cigs possible later in the day. Light and variable winds overnight will turn northerly 10 to 20kt mid/late Wednesday morning behind the aforementioned cold front pushing into northern Oklahoma.
1138 PM CST Tue Nov 26 2024 (This evening through Thursday) Zonal flow aloft will remain in place through the overnight hours as sfc ridging lingers over the area. Changes are anticipated across the state on Wednesday as sfc ridging pulls away from the area and an H500 trough begins to approach from the west. A developing sfc cyclone across the TX/OK panhandles will begin to advance eastward. A leading warm front will begin to lift north toward the state and is expected to make it as far north as the I-40 corridor by Wednesday evening. Shortly after a cold front will overtake the area, moving from NW to SE. As the H500 trough passes to the east, mid-level flow aloft will become NW and cold air will continue to filter in.
Quiet weather is expected across the forecast area tonight, as high pressure at the surface centered near the Mid-South sits in control of our weather. Meanwhile aloft, zonal flow has setup across the Lower Mississippi River Valley. By Wednesday early morning, a broad low pressure trough is progged to approach the Lower Mississippi River Valley. Additionally, low ceilings will increase across the region as another cold frontal boundary approaches the region. By the evening hours, an upper trough will begin to dig into the ArkLaMiss region, bringing the potential for severe weather overnight into early Thursday morning.
- Canadian cold front and areas of light snow expected tonight into Thanksgiving day; snow accumulations of an inch or less.
At the surface, high pressure centered in the western Atlantic will gradually start to shift further off to the east tonight into Thursday. High temperatures today and Thursday will generally rise into the lower 80s across most of the area.
- Cooler air moves in by Thursday and through the weekend.
(Today through Thursday) It's a chilly night with temperatures in the low to mid 30s. The cold front will pass through the entire area prior to 12z Thursday. Temperatures will be cooler again with highs in the mid 40s to lower 50s Thursday afternoon.
High pressure is situated directly over the region this afternoon. This high will continue to bring cool and dry weather the rest of today and tonight with temperatures generally below normal. This system will move southeast into the Rockies and plains leading to a sfc cyclone that will move into the midsouth and Tennessee Valley late Wednesday into Thursday morning. Strong sfc ridging will be kicking this system out of here pretty quick with a healthy ~1040mb high across Canada. Much below normal temperatures will follow this system with the region beneath the extension of a strong high pressure across the southern Canadian provinces.
(Today) A cold front remains on track to move through eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas today, likely entering northeast Oklahoma midday and surging southward through the afternoon.
The highest chances for a half inch to an inch of snow lies across west central Minnesota with up to a trace possible for southern Minnesota and western Wisconsin. The trough axis set to arrive Thanksgiving Day will be a little further displaced from the MPX forecast area, with low (10-20%) PoPs for mainly east central Minnesota into northwestern Wisconsin. When combined with temperatures in the low to mid teens for western Minnesota and low to mind 20s elsewhere, wind chill values will fall into the single digits to low teens for all.
629 AM EST Wed Nov 27 2024 High pressure builds south of the region today, followed by low pressure passing over or just south of the area on Thanksgiving.
The thermal gradient with this will quickly move northward later this morning and we will be back into the warmer section later today. This won't last long as the next front will be moving in fast behind this warm fronts departure. Cloudy all day with temps falling during the day once the front passes, so the high temp for some of the area will be during the early morning hours.
A low pressure system has moved out of the forecast area, bringing an end to precipitation. Today through Thursday night Snow has subsided as a low pressure system has moved east and out of the forecast area. Daytime highs will be in the low to mid 30s with overnight lows in the single digits to teens.
Clear skies dominate tonight and will continue into the morning, as ridging continues to build into the area.
At the surface, a low pressure center has developed in the lee of the Southern Rockies as a cold front sits over the Northern Plains. This boundary will progress southward through the forecast area later today and result in high temperatures only reaching the low to middle 40s across central Kansas. Areas further south should see highs in the low to middle 50s ahead of the front.
- High confidence on much below normal temperatures by the end of the week through the weekend, with highs in the lower teens to 20s and lows in the single digits above zero to the single digits below zero. Thursday evening, the cold front has pretty much completed its journey through our area and the cold air is setting in for the long haul.
However, thickening mid and high level cloudiness looks likely in advance of low pressure approaching from the Mid Miss Valley. Highs will range from around 40 in the north to the lower 50s in the south, which is right around average for this time of year. Focus then shifts to an area of low pressure lifting out of the Lower Miss Valley, which all guidance tracks just south of PA early Thanksgiving Day. Lack of a blocking high should result in a relatively narrow swath of snow of the northern edge of the precipitation shield, while model thermal profiles indicate all rain over the southern half of the state. Amounts over 3 inches are possible in the high terrain of Sullivan County and perhaps across higher elevations across the northern tier.
546 AM CST Wed Nov 27 2024 - Light rain will move across the area this afternoon and evening with the highest chances across central Missouri.
High pressure has begun to build into the West Coast downstream of the passed troughy. Greater drying along with offshore flow winds will promote a greater potential for early morning frost and freezing across the interior and coastal river valleys.
Drier and warmer west of the mountains for Thanksgiving with weak offshore flow.
This is all part of a ridge of high pressure which will remain with us through most of the forecast period. There is also concern for air to stagnate during this ridge of high pressure, but the current thoughts are that the mixing will be enough each afternoon to prevent full-on air stagnation at this point, but do not expect large-scale mixing of the atmosphere either. We are still expecting some LIFR ceilings and visibilities this morning as fog or freezing fog builds into many valleys.
Temperatures will trend upwards for the next several days, reaching warmer than normal for this weekend.
Dry northwest flow will set up aloft as the region gets sandwiched between a central CONUS trough and an eastern Pacific ridge.
546 AM EST Wed Nov 27 2024 High pressure builds south of the region today, followed by low pressure passing over or just south of the area on Thanksgiving.
High pressure ridging will then gradually build into the area, and persist through at least the next seven days, providing dry, stable conditions.
- Warmer temperatures through Thursday, with a return of cooler temperatures behind a series of frontal passages late this week into the weekend.
350 AM CST Wed Nov 27 2024 - Light rain will move across the area this afternoon and evening with the highest chances across central Missouri.
405 AM EST Wed Nov 27 2024 High pressure builds south of the region today, followed by low pressure passing over or just south of the area on Thanksgiving.
This is all part of a ridge of high pressure which will remain with us through most of the forecast period. There is also concern for air to stagnate during this ridge of high pressure, but the current thoughts are that the mixing will be enough each afternoon to prevent full-on air stagnation at this point, but do not expect large-scale mixing of the atmosphere either. With skies clearing tonight and stable conditions developing, confidence is high for LIFR conditions to develop in low clouds and fog/freezing fog for our inland terminals.
154 AM PST Wed Nov 27 2024 * High pressure returns for the Thanksgiving weekend bringing drier and cooler conditions.
535 AM CST Wed Nov 27 2024 (Tonight through Thursday night) Key Messages: - Areas of Fog Possible This Morning - Well above normal temperatures today then cooling down to near normal for Thanksgiving behind a cold front. Decreasing dewpoint depressions and light winds will foster fog and low stratus development this morning, with the highest chances for pockets of dense fog being over inland areas (although a persistent stratus deck may limit this potential over western portions of the area). Fog/stratus should burn off by mid-morning and breezy and warm southerly flow will develop as weak low pressure progresses through the Southern Plains. The cold front associated with the aforementioned low will shift into northern portions of the area in the pre-dawn hours Thursday morning and will clear our southern border by mid- morning.
Drier and cooler conditions continue as a weak low pressure system continues to move out of our area.
336 AM CST Wed Nov 27 2024 (Today through Thursday) It's a chilly night with temperatures in the low to mid 30s. The cold front will pass through the entire area prior to 12z Thursday. Temperatures will be cooler again with highs in the mid 40s to lower 50s Thursday afternoon.
Weak northwest flow aloft will maintain mix of sun and clouds today, and beyond through the weekend and a tad cooler. Still have a few showers today, mainly over the higher terrain.
548 AM CST Wed Nov 27 2024 (Today) A cold front remains on track to move through eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas today, likely entering northeast Oklahoma midday and surging southward through the afternoon.
This is all part of a ridge of high pressure which will remain with us through most of the forecast period. There is also concern for air to stagnate during this ridge of high pressure, but the current thoughts are that the mixing will be enough each afternoon to prevent full-on air stagnation at this point, but do not expect large-scale mixing of the atmosphere either.
- High confidence well below normal temperatures by the end of the week through the weekend, with highs in the lower teens to 20s and lows in the single digits above zero to the single digits below zero.
Widespread cloudy and cooler weather prevails today before a slow warming and drying trend sets in for the latter half of the week with weak offshore winds.
From synopsis, weak high pressure over the eastern United States will maintain light to gentle northeast breezes across the Florida Keys coastal waters through Thursday.
(Tonight through Thursday night) Breezy SW winds should relax by 00Z with a wind shift from the next cold front reaching our northernmost counties of the Hill Country as early at 8 PM. This will likely keep all areas near the metro cities comfortably above freezing.
A few snow flakes could impact parts of central and perhaps eastern this afternoon but with air and ground temperatures above freezing and precipitation rates remaining light we are not expecting any travel concerns. H85 cold air advection will bring below normal temperatures to the area with lows falling into the low to mid 20s for most areas. Cool and dry weather conditions are anticipated on Thanksgiving Day with light winds and highs in the low to mid 40s. The large-scale pattern will remain very similar as we move into Fri- Sat with northwest mid/upper flow prevailing across the central CONUS while a deep trough continues to meander just north of the Great Lakes area.
Updated at 1248 PM CST Wed Nov 27 2024 - Cold front will bring cooler and breezy conditions this afternoon and evening - Cool and dry Thanksgiving Day - Near to below normal temperatures and dry weather dominate through the weekend (Through Tonight) A cold front is currently making its way through northeast Oklahoma and will continue to surge southeastward through the region this evening. Following the front will be gusty northerly winds and cooler temperatures making for a rather raw evening across much of the region. Otherwise, lows will generally range form the 20s across the north to near 40 at the Red River as the cooler air filters in.
A surface cold front is currently located along Highway 50 and will continue to track southward through daybreak. Temperatures will rapidly fall behind the front as it drops south this morning (Walsenburg went from the lower 50s to mid 30s over the past hour). Additional snowfall amounts of 2 to 6 inches are expected across the higher elevations.
(This evening through Thursday Night) The cold front is still expected to begin working into our northern zones around 6PM tonight, quickly moving through the region into the morning hours. Behind the front, highs tomorrow will range in the low to upper-50s, with lows tomorrow night dropping into the low to upper-30s area-wide.
A stacked upper level low is beginning to retrograde just east of James Bay today, expected to continue slowly westward over James Bay and into northeast Ontario through the weekend.
Updated at 207 PM CST Wed Nov 27 2024 - A strong cold front will bring a dramatic cool-down to the entire region this afternoon and evening.
128 PM EST Wed Nov 27 2024 A near-zonal flow is in place aloft this afternoon but heights will start to lower starting tomorrow night as troughing moves over a large part of the country.
Have the highest confidence at KHYS followed lower by KGCK and KDDC.
Areas with the highest likelihood (around 50%) of stratus and fog tomorrow morning include the Western Magic Valley, Long Valley, Baker Valley, and Burns, Oregon.
Temperatures will trend upwards for the next several days, reaching warmer than normal for this weekend. Lows in some areas tonight will be 20-25 degrees cooler than this morning.
High pressure will bring quiet and dry weather to the area with colder temperatures expected through the weekend. Northwest flow will continue over the area as high pressure tries to build in from the west.
Temperatures will trend upwards for the next several days, reaching warmer than normal for this weekend. Still on the cooler side with highs in the low to mid 60s.
A weak cold front will graze northern Arizona today, bringing scattered showers to the region, primarily north of the Mogollon Rim. Gradually warming temperatures and dry conditions are expected thereafter as high pressure builds into Arizona. A band of rain and snow showers is setup from Williams to Window Rock ahead of a weak cold front dropping southward across northern Arizona. Any snow accumulation will be minimal, outside of the highest mountain peaks. Temperatures will be on the cooler side post-front, with afternoon highs about 5 degrees or so cooler than normal.
1028 AM CST Wed Nov 27 2024 Low clouds continue to fill in across northeast OK, and this trend is expected to continue through the afternoon as a cold front continues to surge southward. (Today) A cold front remains on track to move through eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas today, likely entering northeast Oklahoma midday and surging southward through the afternoon.
1140 AM CST Wed Nov 27 2024 (Tonight through Thursday night) Key Messages: - Areas of Fog Possible This Morning - Well above normal temperatures today then cooling down to near normal for Thanksgiving behind a cold front. Decreasing dewpoint depressions and light winds will foster fog and low stratus development this morning, with the highest chances for pockets of dense fog being over inland areas (although a persistent stratus deck may limit this potential over western portions of the area). Fog/stratus should burn off by mid-morning and breezy and warm southerly flow will develop as weak low pressure progresses through the Southern Plains. The cold front associated with the aforementioned low will shift into northern portions of the area in the pre-dawn hours Thursday morning and will clear our southern border by mid- morning.
Low pressure and upper level trough is departing and leaving the region. In its wake, High pressure to the west will dominate the pattern into the weekend. With the upper level ridge so close, do not expect any strong wind anywhere.
1122 AM CST Wed Nov 27 2024 (Today) A cold front remains on track to move through eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas today, likely entering northeast Oklahoma midday and surging southward through the afternoon.
530 PM CST Wed Nov 27 2024 (Tonight through Thursday night) Warm and humid conditions this afternoon and tonight will give way to a big change tomorrow behind an approaching cold front. Some of the coldest air so far this fall comes in tomorrow night with lows in the 40s for inland areas in the lower 50s along the coast.
839 PM CST Wed Nov 27 2024 The cold front has passed through Memphis and Tunica and should move through Jackson, TN in the next hour or so.
At the same time, high clouds from the low passing through Indiana will continue to float over the top. - Light Lake Effect Snow Thanksgiving Tonight, Jackson County may get clipped by some light rain extending from the low pressure system currently over southeast Oklahoma that will move northeast into Virgina by Thursday morning.
759 PM MST Wed Nov 27 2024 - Canadian cold front and areas of light snow expected tonight into Thanksgiving day; snow accumulations of an inch or less.
Low pressure and an associated cold front will move through the Mid-South tonight with scattered to numerous showers and a few thunderstorms.
Radars and satellite pictures are showing most of the snow has ended with just a few showers left, mainly, over the high mountains. We ended all the highlights. We need to watch lows in the high mountain parks as they now are snow covered.
The attached warm front remains to our SW as seen by a well defined region of both temperatures and dew points in the 60s. The JAN 0Z sounding, where the warm front has passed, shows a warm and moist profile with around 800 J/KG of MUCAPE. Should the warm front progress far enough north, there will likely be a narrow window ahead of the cold front passage, where strong to severe storms will be possible with the main threat being gusty winds. The low end tornado threat will entirely depend on if we can be become surface based or not.
546 PM CST Wed Nov 27 2024 (Tonight through Thursday night) Breezy SW winds should relax by 00Z with a wind shift from the next cold front reaching our northernmost counties of the Hill Country as early at 8 PM. This will likely keep all areas near the metro cities comfortably above freezing.
Upper trough also continues to track eastward, removing the vorticity(lift) that could potentially create some precipitation chances with the limited moisture available in the eastern plains. The higher elevations will remain in the upper 20's to low 30's.