Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Scattered light rain showers across northwest Wisconsin with a weak cold front will exit fully into northeast Wisconsin and the UP over the next 2-3 hours.
A cold low pressure system will bring rain and snow showers at times through Sunday morning. The upper level low that has been bringing us rain and snow showers along with some thunderstorms, continues to spin across central Arizona this afternoon. The low will wobble around through the night and on Sunday it should start to lift towards the northeast and Four Corners. Precipitation will continue to rotate around the low with rain showers and isolated thunderstorms, and snow in areas generally above 6500 feet. Cool temperatures will continue on Sunday but as we start to see ridging across the region, we will a bit each day.
/NEW/ Update: Tranquil weather will continue the rest of the weekend as the low-level moisture axis remains displaced west of the forecast area in closer proximity to a Four Corners upper low. An upper level trough will remain across the Four Corners region through Sunday keeping a deeper southerly flow in place across West Texas. The lowest afternoon humidity will uncharacteristically be across our eastern counties this afternoon and again on Sunday, and will be accompanied by an elevated grass fire threat. Otherwise, the weather will remain quiet with temperatures a degree or two warmer on Sunday.
704 PM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024 High pressure remains in place through the week, so no big changes expected to the forecast, overall it was good.
931 PM EDT Sat Oct 19 2024 High pressure will continue to predominate with temperatures above normal. A cold front will move through midweek with only a minimal chance of rain. High pressure will persist. This period will feature high pressure and dry air for the most part, though a couple of weak systems will bring a low threat for showers.
618 PM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024 (This evening through Sunday Night) Upper-level ridging will continue to dominate the short-term, as it will move directly overhead by tomorrow afternoon. Highs tomorrow will range in the mid-70s to low 80s, with overnight lows remaining in the low-40s to low-50s.
620 PM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024 (This afternoon through Sunday night) Current water vapor shows an upper low slowly moving into the area across Arizona and New Mexico this afternoon. Highs end up a few degrees warmer compared to today with 70s for most and 80s for areas around and south of the I-10 corridor.
High pressure remains in place through the week, so no big changes expected to the forecast, overall it was good.
However, there was no CAPE due to warming in the lower and mid levels. The lack of convective support at any level due to ridging aloft and no lower level lift should result in slight chance PoPs at best.
621 PM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024 (This evening through Sunday) The upper low is currently situated over Arizona and is nearly stationary. Convection will mostly remain west of the FA this afternoon and tonight as the upper low remains in place. Some clearing is expected across the Rolling Plains late tomorrow morning into the afternoon as the upper low pushes northeastward into Utah.
(Rest of tonight) Evening model guidance suggests that a weakening mid-level vort max (initially across the Mid-South region) will begin to turn southeastward into the TN Valley overnight in the flow around an amplifying 500-mb ridge centered over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico. Due to both the weak nature of the wave and lack of moisture in the lower/middle troposphere, it will enter the region with no impact on sensible weather.
820 PM EDT Sat Oct 19 2024 High pressure and dry conditions continue to dominate the region with normal or slightly cooler temperatures through Sunday. Key Message(s): - Dry and continued cooler than normal. Dry high pressure at the surface and aloft across the area. Overnight lows generally in the low 40s north and west to mid 40s south and east.
713 PM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024 (Tonight) High pressure aloft and at the surface will maintain mostly clear skies and light winds through the duration of the afternoon. Temps will peak in the low to mid 70s before cooling off with sunset. Tonight, clear and calm conditions will present a favorable set up for radiational cooling with temps dropping down into the low 40s.
The persistent breezy to strong NE winds generated from the pressure gradient associated with this low will finally be weakened evening, greatly reducing the critical fire weather conditions.
703 PM EDT Sat Oct 19 2024 (Through Sunday) Upper level ridge builds over the southern states while an upper level trough passes from north to south across the southeast coast of the US.
853 PM EDT Sat Oct 19 2024 High pressure and dry conditions will continue across the CWA. Temps in the upper 60s to low 70s will warm maybe a couple more degrees but highs today are expected to be in the low 70s for much of the area.
736 PM EDT Sat Oct 19 2024 High pressure will continue to predominate with temperatures above normal. A cold front will move through midweek with only a minimal chance of rain. Lows will be a few degrees warmer than last night. High pressure will persist. This period will feature high pressure and dry air for the most part, though a couple of weak systems will bring a low threat for showers.
(00Z TAFs) TAFs begin with VFR conditions with expansive high pressure to the north over the northeastern CONUS. The area of high pressure will remain in place across the eastern U. , with troughing near the Bahamas developing as Hurricane Oscar moves across the far eastern Caribbean. Temperatures will remain seasonable, with lows tonight falling into the mid 60s to low 70s and afternoon highs on Sunday in the low to mid 80s.
619 PM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024 Surface analysis shows broad high pressure ridging over the OH Valley southwest into TX. Ridging extends into the mid levels per WV imagery and UA analysis, with a very dry airmass over the region.
Latest 19/12Z hi-res and numerical model data shows various perturbations continue to move cyclonically around the upper level low.
Cooler, but still seasonable air returns for mid week. OVERVIEW: fairly progressive zonal upper level flow for the new week, although more with a broad ridging shape to it. This has been a steady signal for several days and speaks to the high model confidence in the likely outcomes. With the abnormally warm airmass and dry conditions, leaning into the higher end of guidance is warranted. Much cooler, but more line with the late October normals - if not a few degrees above. PRECIPITATION CHANCES: long and medium range guidance remain in good agreement with lifting a cutoff, upper level low northeast out of the desert southwest, spinning it across the mid mississippi river valley Tue.
/NEW/ /Through Monday/ A strong mid/upper ridge centered from the Mississippi Valley to western Gulf of Mexico will be the main influencer of the local weather for the next few days. Meanwhile, an upper low currently over New Mexico will eventually lift northeast and ride the northern periphery of the ridge tonight and Monday. This low, however, will do little more than cause light east winds today to veer to the south on Monday. Any precipitation associated with the low will remain well north and west of the region. Temperatures today and Monday will be a few degrees higher than yesterday's readings, with highs generally in the lower to middle 80s.
Dry and mild weather will continue over the Midsouth through midweek, under an upper level high pressure ridge. This ridge will move out on by midweek, allowing the passage of a weak cold front. Temperatures will moderate to near normal behind this cold front, with continued dry conditions for the latter half of the week.
1138 PM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024 (This evening through Sunday) Ridging will prevail in the mid-upper levels through Monday, keeping a dry airmass over the region and diverting deeper moisture over the southern Gulf of Mexico. Temperatures will remain near to above normal, with lows ranging from around 50 north to middle and upper 50s south while high climb into the lower 80s with highs on Monday a degree or two warmer than Sunday.
Temperatures will continue to trend upward through the week under a ridge of high pressure. Additionally, the upper low over northern Arizona will continue to throw some clouds westward into southeast Nevada and northwest Arizona.
1219 AM CDT Sun Oct 20 2024 (This afternoon through Sunday night) Current water vapor shows an upper low slowly moving into the area across Arizona and New Mexico this afternoon. Highs end up a few degrees warmer compared to today with 70s for most and 80s for areas around and south of the I-10 corridor.
308 AM EDT Sun Oct 20 2024 High pressure and dry conditions will continue through much of the coming week. Radiational cooling conditions will remain excellent allowing overnight lows to fall into the low to mid 40s. Synoptic situation will show little change today as high pressure north of the area remains in place while the upper level ridge axis remains over the Lower MS Valley. Overnight temps are forecast to gradually rebound as well, but with the dry air in place, lows are expected in the lower to mid 40s. Key Message(s): - Above normal temperatures through mid week ahead of a possible cold front late in the week. Upper ridging remains over the region into midweek ahead of an approaching upper trough.
- Near record temps today and Monday, with a few readings in the lower 80s from central Wisconsin to the Fox Valley.
(Today through Monday) Strong high pressure will be centered over the central and southern Appalachians the next couple days, and a frontal boundary will remain situated to our south.
Temperatures have been falling quickly this evening, and once again anticipate temps to settle in the lower to mid 40s at most locations by early tomorrow morning. As an upper-level ridge remains in place over the Gulf Coast, the core of the mid- level ridge will pivot westward over our region tomorrow and enhance subsidence. Forecast guidance show adiabatic descent from the north as this ridge pivots overhead. /NF/ High pressure remains in place through the week, so no big changes expected to the forecast, overall it was good.
Today will be at least a few degrees warmer than yesterday in most locations, and low humidities will continue to impact much of the area. The upper level low over Central Arizona today will begin to eject NE into Colorado Sunday into Monday. Heights across the region will rise on Tue as an upper high over southern Texas and Mexico moves westward and expands into the area. The upper high will hold strongly into Wed. A large broad trough will move into the eastern Pacific Thu and move into the West Coast Fri.
338 AM EDT Sun Oct 20 2024 High pressure will continue across the area through midweek.
(Today) Conditions today should be very similar to those seen yesterday, featuring above normal temperatures - likely a couple of degrees warmer than yesterday's highs, low relative humidities and light winds. The lower wind speeds will keep the overall fire spread threat in check today, despite dry fuels and forecast minimum relative humidities once again in the 20 to 25 percent range in most spots.
Analysis charts show expansive high pressure to the north over the eastern CONUS. Temperatures are currently in the mid 60s to low 70s inland and in the low to upper 70s near the coast with dew points in the low 60s to near 70 degrees. Low temperatures in mid 60s to low 70s are forecast west of I-95 with the low to mid 70s to the east under partly to mostly cloudy skies. Hazardous boating conditions will persist across the local Atlantic waters over the next several days, as an area of high pressure remains anchored across the eastern U.
The ridging should start to be pushed further east into the new week as a weak disturbance enters the Midwest. A cut off upper low over the SW CONUS and will eject out NE towards the Plains.
1220 AM CDT Sun Oct 20 2024 (This evening through Sunday) The upper low is currently situated over Arizona and is nearly stationary. Convection will mostly remain west of the FA this afternoon and tonight as the upper low remains in place. Some clearing is expected across the Rolling Plains late tomorrow morning into the afternoon as the upper low pushes northeastward into Utah.
151 AM EDT Sun Oct 20 2024 High pressure will bring a prolonged period of dry weather through at least the middle of the week.
154 AM EDT Sun Oct 20 2024 High pressure will continue to predominate with temperatures above normal. A cold front will move through midweek with only a minimal chance of rain. High pressure will persist. This period will feature high pressure and dry air for the most part, though a couple of weak systems will bring a low threat for showers.
(Today and tonight) Currently, a strong upper level low is spinning over northeastern AZ. Ahead of this low, surface pressure falls continues to keep our winds out of the southeast. While we will have some morning low clouds across the western 2/3 of the area, expect partly cloudy skies by mid to late afternoon, which should lead to temperatures being a few degrees warmer in most areas this afternoon.
(Today through Monday) High pressure will remain in control through the short term period. A strong H5 ridge is current over the region and will continue to move westward over the Texas Gulf Coast by tomorrow morning. Our region will remain within the northeast periphery of this upper high. At the surface, high pressure will still reside across the southern Appalachians. The warming trend that has been present the last few days will continue into the short term with most locations warming into the lower to middle 80s today and tomorrow.
(Today through Monday) An upper level low near the Four Corners and weak surface ridging over our area linger today. The upper level low opens up and moves over the Rockies tonight to the Central Plains on Monday while upper level ridge axis over the Western Gulf of Mexico shifts to southern Texas. Little change in the daily temperature ranges are expected, though the Edwards Plateau will trend warmer due to more sunshine.
For today, highs in the 80s look most likely across southern Minnesota, with a few spots in southwest Minnesota east of the Buffalo Ridge possibly reaching the mid-80s where the mixing from southwest winds will be maximized. As mentioned earlier, temperatures look to be a degree or two warmer on Monday when 700 & 850 mb temperatures are maximized over the area. Widespread high temperatures in the low to mid 80s are expected, although most of our climate sites have record high temepratures on the 21st that will be a few degrees out of reach.
The result will be generally quiet weather and warmer temperatures. Slightly warmer temperatures are in store for Monday, where 80 degree highs are possible in the southern Red River Valley, with low to mid 70s elsewhere.
Moisture wrapping around the low is fueling convection across eastern NM/the TX Panhandle and high clouds over eastern CO.
200 AM MST Sun Oct 20 2024 The low pressure system that has brought much cooler temperatures to the region will shift to the northeast today into Monday allowing high pressure to build back into the region.
320 AM EDT Sun Oct 20 2024 * Tranquil and mild weather continues for today with highs in the low to mid 70s with lots of sunshine.
405 AM EDT Sun Oct 20 2024 High pressure remains across the region through the early week.
High pressure remains strong over the eastern US today. Sandwiched between the ridge and a stalled frontal boundary over the northern Caribbean, breezy to windy northeast flow will persist across the Florida peninsula today. Highs will be average for the season, in the lower to mid-80s.
305 AM EDT Sun Oct 20 2024 High pressure remains large and in charge, with sunny days and warmer afternoons into midweek.
/Issued 1207 AM CDT Sun Oct 20 2024/ /Through Monday/ A strong mid/upper ridge centered from the Mississippi Valley to western Gulf of Mexico will be the main influencer of the local weather for the next few days. Meanwhile, an upper low currently over New Mexico will eventually lift northeast and ride the northern periphery of the ridge tonight and Monday. This low, however, will do little more than cause light east winds today to veer to the south on Monday. Any precipitation associated with the low will remain well north and west of the region. Temperatures today and Monday will be a few degrees higher than yesterday's readings, with highs generally in the lower to middle 80s.
(Today and tonight) Closed upper low will continue to set over Arizona through much of the day today before finally lifting east and northeast through southern Colorado tonight.
1151 PM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024 Another quiet night expected, as surface and upper-level ridging will remain across the area. /20/ (This evening through Sunday Night) Upper-level ridging will continue to dominate the short-term, as it will move directly overhead by tomorrow afternoon. Highs tomorrow will range in the mid-70s to low 80s, with overnight lows remaining in the low-40s to low-50s.
212 AM EDT Sun Oct 20 2024 High pressure, both surface and aloft, will remain over the region into the middle of this week.
Today Currently early this morning, ridging is just to our west with a closed upper low over the southern Rockies.
One of the more notable features on water vapor imagery this afternoon is cut-off low spinning over the Southwest. Latest surface analysis shows mesoscale high pressure to our south, centered over central NE, with a subtle trough crossing the region from west to east. Relative positioning of trough and high pressure is supporting steady southwesterly flow over the SD plains, with more variable and terrain-driven flow near the Black Hills into northeastern WY. With deep high pressure over the Southeastern quarter of the CONUS and modest troughing over and east of the Rockies, predominantly west/southwest flow over the region will facilitate warming low- level temperatures. Over the past 24 hours, model consensus has shifted the forecast track of the cut-off low.
1047 PM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024 Another quiet night expected, as surface and upper-level ridging will remain across the area. /20/ (This evening through Sunday Night) Upper-level ridging will continue to dominate the short-term, as it will move directly overhead by tomorrow afternoon. Highs tomorrow will range in the mid-70s to low 80s, with overnight lows remaining in the low-40s to low-50s.
125 AM EDT Sun Oct 20 2024 Dry high pressure persists through the forecast period.
120 AM EDT Sun Oct 20 2024 High pressure remains large and in charge, with sunny days and warmer afternoons into midweek. A cold front then crosses, followed by cooler weather to end the work week. High pressure large and in charge maintains Chamber of Commerce weather through the balance of the weekend.
1149 PM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024 (Rest of tonight) Evening model guidance suggests that a weakening mid-level vort max (initially across the Mid-South region) will begin to turn southeastward into the TN Valley overnight in the flow around an amplifying 500-mb ridge centered over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico. Due to both the weak nature of the wave and lack of moisture in the lower/middle troposphere, it will enter the region with no impact on sensible weather.
A slow-moving low pressure system will bring more rain and high-elevation snow showers to the area through Sunday. A cut-off low centered just southeast of Flagstaff this evening will slowly move northward tonight, before untethering and ejecting through the Four Corners by Sunday afternoon. Rain and snow showers continue on the north and west quadrants of the low, as well as the cold core of the low, over Flagstaff. The western and northern quadrants of the low have been overtaken by a large dry slot and precipitation has nearly ended. Snow levels are still around 7000 feet within the core of the low, but have risen significantly around the periphery, as high as 9000 feet.
Highs will be in the mid to upper 70s today and a few degrees warmer tomorrow.
357 AM EDT Sun Oct 20 2024 High pressure will continue to predominate with temperatures above normal. A cold front will move through at midweek offering only a minimal chance of rain. A slow warming trend will continue with highs generally in the lower 70s. A few high level clouds will thin as they spill toward the area overnight with a mid level ridge building north into the area Monday.
The upper low is meandering around the Four Corners today and will continue to do through tomorrow before finally lifting northeast and across the area Sunday night and Monday. Precipitation will develop fairly quickly Sunday evening as the upper low approaches and continue through the night. The upper low moves over the area on Monday with best rain chances across the south and east. Highs will be in the lower 70s.
Aloft, a ridge of high pressure was dominating the weather pattern across the southeastern US with zonal flow to our north. A cut off low pressure system is stalled, perhaps even retrograding west, over the Four Corners. Under clear skies, we are expecting a slight warm up with afternoon high temperatures climbing into the low to mid 70s by this afternoon, and into the mid to upper 70s by Monday afternoon. This slightly warmer than normal for this time of year.
Lows this morning in the 30s and highs in the lower 70s are evidence of this. A bit of uncertainty in the temperature forecast exists dependent on how strong mixing is, with the GFS on the higher end of the envelope in the low 80s, and the ECMWF on the lower end in the mid 70s.
(Today through Monday) Dry northerly flow aloft will be in place over Central Alabama through the short term period, between a ridge axis along the Mississippi Valley and troughing over the western Atlantic.
313 AM CDT Sun Oct 20 2024 Persistent clear and dry conditions are expected today as high pressure remains firmly in place over the southeast CONUS.
(Today) High pressure will become more centered over the Tennessee Valley today, keeping dry conditions in place for the later half of the weekend. Current temperatures range from the low to mid 40s under clear skies. Highs today will be on the warmer side of seasonal norms, rising to the mid to upper 70s with abundant sunshine and light northerly winds.
(Now through Monday night) The upper ridge extending from the western Gulf of Mexico to the midwest states will breakdown late tonight through Monday as the upper cut-off low over the Desert Southwest ejects toward the east- northeast. A dry airmass will continue through Monday as a slug of very dry air invades from the northeast, with afternoon relative humidity values dropping into the low to mid 20s all the way to the coast. Highs Monday should be 2 to 3 degrees warmer, ranging from 79 to 83 degrees, or around 5 degrees above normal. Lows Monday night will be about 2 degrees warmer across the board.
We could see a few showers develop late tonight through Sunday morning along the Rio Grande given the moist, upslope flow in the lower levels. Farther east into the I-35 and Highway 77 corridors where clear skies and lower dew points can be found, lows will dip into the lower to mid 50s.
Pretty quiet across the area early this morning as an upper level ridge axis was passing through and the surface boundary that had been in place the last couple days had pretty much washed out. Guidance is in good agreement that the low will be spinning along the CO/KS border by mid-day Monday with associated showers pushing into south-central NE by then.
- Scattered thunderstorms will form around mid-day Monday into Monday afternoon in association with an upper level low, with best chances in central Kansas.