Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
116 AM EDT Mon Aug 4 2025 Seasonable temperatures will slowly rise through mid week while high pressure helps to maintain dry weather. KEY MESSAGES: - Seasonably cool and dry - Localized river valley fog possible after midnight --------------------------------------------------------------- High pressure and weak flow aloft will continue to support dry weather across the Upper Ohio River Valley. ---------------------------------------------------------------- Temperatures will be slightly warmer than observed today as ridging continues to build across the region, however, with dewpoints remaining in the 50s, conditions will remain relatively comfortable to start off the week. KEY MESSAGES: - Low probability showers/storms return during the second half of the week - Pattern shift later in the weekend ------------------------------------------------------------------- Latest ensemble guidance shows a slight chance of showers returning midweek as upper trough moves into the eastern CONUS.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue across much of southeast Oregon this evening ahead of an upper- level trough approaching the Oregon coast. Clusters of thunderstorms continue to develop across Malheur and Baker Counties and are expected to push into the Lower Treasure Valley and west-central mountains through late tonight. Another round of thunderstorms is possible late Monday morning through Monday evening as the upper trough moves through the area. Cold frontal passage this evening combined with outflows bringing widespread 40 kt gusts and areas of blowing dust at times. Surface winds: NW 5-15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt, this evening up to 45 kt along a cold front.
A trough over the west coast is leaving the northern Rockies under southwest flow.
Another hot day is forecast across the region with highs in the low to mid 90s across our eastern counties and in the mid 90s to near 100 across our western counties.
247 AM EDT Mon Aug 4 2025 A cold front slowly pushes south through Maine today into tonight.
Updated at 1231 AM CDT Mon Aug 4 2025 - Slightly warmer and dry today. (Today and tonight) The possible thunderstorms into early this morning have not come to fruition due in main part to stability from yesterday morning's MCS and subsequent cooler temperatures. As such, a quiet overnight is expected with mostly clear skies and lows ranging from the low to upper 60s. An upper ridge over the Desert Southwest will slowly track eastward today and provide for a more capped atmosphere.
1239 AM CDT Mon Aug 4 2025 High pressure over the desert SW will continue to build through the week, maintaining hot and dry conditions in deep South Texas.
Looking ahead, warmer daytime temps are in store through this week as mid level ridging builds back in from the west.
Southwesterly flow aloft continues through at least mid-week as a trough hovers over the region, sandwiched between a ridge to our west and to our east.
157 AM EDT Mon Aug 4 2025 Seasonable temperatures will slowly rise through mid week while high pressure helps to maintain dry weather. KEY MESSAGES: - Warm and dry conditions expected under high pressure. --------------------------------------------------------------- High pressure and weak flow aloft will continue to support dry weather across the Upper Ohio River Valley. Temperatures begin to trend slightly warmer - in the mid 80s for most - but with dewpoints remaining in the 50s conditions should remain relatively comfortable.
(Rest of tonight and Monday) A back door cold front continues to drift westward tonight and based on IR Satellite imagery it is seen across portions of NW AL. As we start the new workweek, high pressure centered over the Appalachians will keep easterly flow in place across the Tennessee Valley. Normal highs for this time of year is in the lower 90s.
(Today and tonight) Upper-level ridging is over the state as a trough axis remains stuck in the Mississippi River Basin, sandwiched between the ridge over FL and a strong ridge axis over the Southwestern CONUS.
Otherwise, high pressure and dry conditions will continue to be in place for much of the week.
Daily rain chances will continue through the week as a trough remains parked over the region. Aloft, we will have a weak low pressure at 850 mb, currently over AL, that will drift slowly NE.
Aloft, an upper ridge will remain over portions of the Four Corners, potentially wobbling as far E as the Srn Rockies.
218 AM EDT Mon Aug 4 2025 High pressure settled over the Great Lakes and Northeast will continue to influence the local area through mid-week. Quiet and primarily dry weather continues under the influence of high pressure through the near term.
The last remaining impact of the passing cold front will be felt Monday. Ridging building in this coming week will warm temperatures. A cold frontal passage Sunday stirred up gusty winds inland Sunday afternoon. The upper level trough will ease up in amplitude allowing for a more zonal synoptic flow early through the week. This zonal flow will end midweek as an upper level trough over British Columbia migrates eastward allowing for higher geo-potential heights & warmer air to fill into the area. These warmer temperatures aloft will bring warmer conditions on the surface as well.
117 AM MDT Mon Aug 4 2025 -Seasonally warm with isolated to scattered thunderstorms at times -Severe storms possible this afternoon from the Black Hills southeast into Nebraska Northeast Pac upper trough will force a ridge east into the Plains, as active northern periphery flow continues. Lee side trough will setup over the region, with increasing moist SE flow today. Upper ridge will build over the area Wed-Thur, peaking Thur when the thermal ridge passes over the region, supporting the hottest day this week.
Main focus for the short term period today will be tracking an inverted trough with some tropical influences and how it is expected to bring isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms to portions of southern Indiana. This instability combined with forcing associated with the trough to bring increased coverage in showers and better chances for rumbles of thunder. Temperatures will remain cooler than normal today with expected highs in the low 80s but as low level moisture advects into the area, dew points in the low to mid 60s will become more widespread towards the evening. As diurnal heating comes to an end shower coverage should gradually decrease through the night but with the trough in the vicinity, at least a few showers should continue through much of the night especially as models continue to show moisture advection in the lower levels.
244 AM EDT Mon Aug 4 2025 A cold front will remain stalled to our south with high pressure to our north ridging into the area. Persistence forecast for the most part as high pressure centered off to the northeast remains at the surface.
129 AM EDT Mon Aug 4 2025 Mainly dry today as high pressure shifts north.
WV imagery indicates ridging aloft shifting slowly east through the Colorado Rockies into the Western High Plains. Near the surface, a weak lee side trough of low pressure remains anchored in eastern Colorado. Minimal thunderstorm chances (20%) are forecast early in the period as the SREF indicates a slowly amplifying ridge axis aloft moving out of the Colorado Rockies into the high plains of eastern Colorado with a 70kt upper level jet core dropping southeast through western/central Kansas. Although the aforementioned ridge axis nearing proximity to the KS/CO line may help suppress this development, a few isolated thunderstorms cannot be ruled out developing along and ahead of the dryline, then potentially spreading into western Kansas this evening.
High pressure will dominate the region through the forecast period, resulting in hot daytime highs and mostly dry conditions. Slight chances for showers/storms to return across the higher terrain by mid-week, but otherwise, near-critical fire weather conditions will persist. A strong area of high pressure will remain over much of the Southwest through the next several days. There is a sliver of hope for some moisture to return by mid-week, but confidence is not great, and activity will likely be limited to the higher terrain. As previously mentioned, the area of high pressure will shimmy across the Southwest. As this ridge expands eastward, we might just see some moisture creep into northern Arizona. The first indication of this is the minimum RH values slightly increase through the week, primarily across the higher terrain.
High pressure over the desert SW will continue to build through the week, maintaining hot and dry conditions in deep South Texas.
335 AM EDT Mon Aug 4 2025 - Pleasant summer weather today with low humidity and highs in the lower 80s.
As expected, mostly sunny skies and high temperatures climbing into the low 80s can be expected today.
943 AM EDT Mon Aug 4 2025 Dry today as high pressure shifts northeast. Highs will be in the low/mid 80s across the lowlands, with upper 60s and 70s in the mountains. Today is influenced by high pressure, dry air in the column and just partly cloudy skies which will all promote just about seasonable temperatures, maybe a degree or two lower. This is where an inverted trough will set up to promote some shower activity although thunderstorm probability is very low at this time. Moisture increases as an elongated upper level trough pushes in from the west into Tuesday promoting more shower and possible thunderstorm activity although instability is almost non existent according to forecast soundings as well as lapse rates only around 3.
Bunker (Monday through Tuesday night) Tuesday will begin our warming trend as a mid-level ridge moves closer to the southern Plains. Afternoon highs will get up to the low to mid 90s across the entire area.
(Today through Tuesday) The subtropical ridge is centered to our west this morning resulting in northwesterly to northerly flow aloft over TX.
Vertically integrated and near-surface smoke forecasts from the HRRR, RAP and Canadian show the large area of smoke remaining in place over northeast WI as it is trapped/stuck under a high pressure system.
- A deepening trough will move across the middle of the nation toward the end of the forecast period. A ridge sets up over the region Tuesday with dry conditions expected during the daytime hours.
Other than that high pressure remains overhead with no chances for precip through Tuesday night. Kuroski Issued 404 AM CDT Mon Aug 4 2025 Today and Tonight: Another quiet day is expected today under high pressure.
A dry cold front may bring some relief by the weekend.
The inverted trough is located over western Kentucky and southern Indiana at this hour. Mid and upper level troughing will move into the region from the west today. This will bring additional lift to the present moisture and inverted trough, and will support more scattered showers and storms. High temperatures this afternoon will remain mild in the low-to-mid 80s. Temperatures will remain below normal in the low-to-mid 80s for highs and mid-to-upper 60s to around 70 for lows. The latter half of the work week will feature a slowly departing trough and amplifying ridge over the southwest CONUS, extending towards the Mississippi Valley. This ridging will help to bring temperatures back to near normal in the upper 80s. Depending on how far east the troughing can move, will determine if daily chances for showers and storms remain.
Satellite image shows the upper trough axis centered west of the Cascades. Isolated storms could linger into this morning, then ending this afternoon as the upper trough axis moves east of the forecast area followed by a more stable atmosphere.
We are still under the influence of the wedge of high pressure that continues to build SW down the eastern seaboard. The higher amounts are still mainly across central GA but they are creeping a bit north with the boundary.
Issued 404 AM CDT Mon Aug 4 2025 Today and Tonight: Another quiet day is expected today under high pressure.
618 AM EDT Mon Aug 4 2025 Mainly dry today as high pressure shifts north. Today is influenced by high pressure, dry air in the column and just partly cloudy skies which will all promote just about seasonable temperatures, maybe a degree or two lower. This is where an inverted trough will set up to promote some shower activity although thunderstorm probability is very low at this time. Moisture increases as an elongated upper level trough pushes in from the west into Tuesday promoting more shower and possible thunderstorm activity although instability is almost non existent according to forecast soundings as well as lapse rates only around 3.
A prolonged period of very warm and very dry conditions expected through the upcoming week as a strong ridge centers on the Four Corners Region. The ridge has already started bringing much drier air in from the desert southwest, noted by dewpoint temperatures in the low to mid 20s across southern WY currently.
511 AM MDT Mon Aug 4 2025 -Seasonally warm with isolated to scattered thunderstorms at times -Severe storms possible this afternoon from the Black Hills southeast into Nebraska Northeast Pac upper trough will force a ridge east into the Plains, as active northern periphery flow continues. Lee side trough will setup over the region, with increasing moist SE flow today. Upper ridge will build over the area Wed-Thur, peaking Thur when the thermal ridge passes over the region, supporting the hottest day this week.
655 AM EDT Mon Aug 4 2025 High pressure settled over the Great Lakes and Northeast will continue to influence the local area through mid-week. Quiet and primarily dry weather continues under the influence of high pressure through the near term. High temperatures today rise into the lower 80s with mid 80s likely by Tuesday afternoon. Low temperatures tonight will settle in the low 60s. High pressure across the Great Lakes continue to impact the region through the short term period as it gets absorbed by another area of high pressure over Canada. Guidance continues to favor a dry forecast under the influence of the high pressure and little to no forcing.
This trough sticks around through Tuesday giving us scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. The trend does seem to be towards drier conditions through the next several days with the trough transitioning to a cut-off upper low.
804 AM EDT Mon Aug 4 2025 (Today and tonight) Upper-level ridging is over the state as a trough axis remains stuck in the Mississippi River Basin, sandwiched between the ridge over FL and a strong ridge axis over the Southwestern CONUS.
617 AM CDT Mon Aug 4 2025 High pressure over the desert SW will continue to build through the week, maintaining hot and dry conditions in deep South Texas.
While there is a bit of flow aloft from a 500 mb trough that should cause most of the activity to have some forward speed, effects from the wedge extending down the lee of Appalachia could counteract this in areas and result in clusters of slow-moving activity. Tuesday: The interaction of a trough overhead and ridging across the west Atlantic will maintain a plume of high moisture content and lift across the Southeast U.
At the low/sfc lvl, latest analyses show the frontal boundary lingering over the Florida panhandle pushing a little further southward today, remaining just north of the Orlando/Melbourne area. Guidance seems to keep the front in place today, then lifting back northward on Tuesday as a weak ridge axis over the west Atlantic lifts northward and into the central portions of the peninsula. Afternoon max temps will be in the low-mid 90s, along with nighttime lows in the mid- upper 70s inland, and in the low 80s closer to the coasts.
Otherwise, high pressure and dry conditions will continue to be in place for much of the week. Otherwise, high pressure will stay in control with warm and dry conditions expected through the near term period.
An upper-level trough across western MO early this morning will slowly propagate eastward today, absorbing an MCV near Kansas City in the process. The trough will begin to interact with a plume of moisture within a low-level inverted trough progressing from KY and southern IN into IL by this afternoon. Weak, broad large-scale ascent, the low-level inverted trough, and daytime heating will help drive scattered showers and thunderstorms today, mainly across south-central/southwestern IL per 30 to 50 percent of HREF membership.
627 AM EDT Mon Aug 4 2025 - Pleasant summer weather today with low humidity and highs in the lower 80s.
A pattern that should warrant good rain chances across our region given the placement of a longwave trough across our region with upper ridging having pulled back across the Four Corners Region of the Country.
634 AM EDT Mon Aug 4 2025 A large area of high pressure in the eastern Great Lakes region will keep a dry east wind over much of the Ohio Valley through the early part of the forecast.
Aloft, an upper ridge will remain over portions of the Four Corners, potentially wobbling as far E as the Srn Rockies. At the surface, winds should stay E/NE through Tuesday as high pressure remains to the N and E of AR.
627 AM EDT Mon Aug 4 2025 A cold front will remain stalled to our south with high pressure to our north ridging into the area. Persistence forecast for the most part as high pressure centered off to the northeast remains at the surface. High pressure will ridge down from the north centered to our west with small pulses of vorticity moving through aloft. Ridging high pressure continues while coastal low pressure late week may drag the stalled front to our south back north. coast to a 30% chance for tropical cyclone formation. As of 2am, long range deterministic models are trending towards some form of low pressure forming in the area and traveling up the coast. The forecast leans toward the lower end of the range by Tuesday morning as the persistent pattern breaks down.
621 AM CDT Mon Aug 4 2025 Updated at 621 AM CDT Mon Aug 4 2025 - Slightly warmer and dry today. (Today and tonight) The possible thunderstorms into early this morning have not come to fruition due in main part to stability from yesterday morning's MCS and subsequent cooler temperatures. As such, a quiet overnight is expected with mostly clear skies and lows ranging from the low to upper 60s. An upper ridge over the Desert Southwest will slowly track eastward today and provide for a more capped atmosphere.
658 AM EDT Mon Aug 4 2025 A cold front slowly pushes south through Maine today into tonight.
947 AM EDT Mon Aug 4 2025 A large area of high pressure in the eastern Great Lakes region will keep a dry east wind over much of the Ohio Valley through the early part of the forecast.
Drink plenty of water and take breaks in the shade! - Isolated showers/thunderstorms possible this afternoon and evening, mainly in/around the Davis Mountains towards the Lower Trans-Pecos (10-25%). (This afternoon through Tuesday night) Water Vapor imagery this morning shows an upper-level ridge centered just to the west of the region. A general warming trend persists today across West Texas and Southeast New Mexico as the aforementioned ridge continues to shift towards us and strengthen. However, because the ridge is not quite centered over us yet, and given sufficient moisture (MAF's 12Z sounding indicated PWATs of around 1. The best chances will be in/near the Davis Mountains towards the Lower Trans-Pecos (10-25%), mainly due to upslope flow and differential heating.
100 PM PDT Mon Aug 4 2025 Cooler and quiet weather today ahead of a warm up expected mid to late week with areas of Moderate HeatRisk developing late this week into the weekend.
(This evening through Tuesday) A gradual warming trend will continue across West Central Texas over the next few days as high pressure continues to slowly build across the area. (Tuesday night through next Monday) A strengthened upper level high will be centered over New Mexico in the middle to late parts of this week.
Over 60% of the raw ensembles show temperatures to remian in the low to upper 80s. EFI shows each day to be below climatological normal and our climatology information places the areas around the CWA between 1-5 degrees below normal along the lower elevations all the way to 10-11 degrees below normal along some of the higher areas along the Northern Blues and WA Cascades.
251 PM EDT Mon Aug 4 2025 High pressure remains in control into the weekend. With upper level ridging along the eastern seaboard and a weak trough across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, expect some increase in high clouds through the period.
Upper level ridging is expected to dominate the Desert Southwest region throughout the week, which will bring hot and dry weather to Deep South Texas.
Some of the high-res solutions indicate potential long-tracked outflows that may peak above severe thresholds moving through the Eastern Magic Valley/Snake Plain into early this evening. Tuesday should be dry with slightly cooler temperatures by 2-5 degrees across the region.
Needless to say, it's not very often that we have highs in the low to mid 70s on August 4th in the Deep South! Rain showers continue to develop across much of Georgia stretching southwestward into the I-85 corridor early this afternoon. The good news in terms of flood potential is that current development is stratiform in nature due to the stable, cooler air working in via the wedge.
This should not allow temperatures to reach previously forecast highs of the lower 80s in NW AL. Overall based on this expectation with cloud cover evolution, lowered highs slightly into the lower to mid 70s near and east of the I-65 corridor. With the very moist airmass in place in the lower layers of the atmosphere and some warming during the day, instability (though weak for this time of year) could be in place by then.
1200 PM MDT Mon Aug 4 2025 -Seasonally warm with isolated to scattered thunderstorms at times -Severe storms possible this afternoon from the Black Hills southeast into Nebraska Northeast Pac upper trough will force a ridge east into the Plains, as active northern periphery flow continues. Lee side trough will setup over the region, with increasing moist SE flow today. Upper ridge will build over the area Wed-Thur, peaking Thur when the thermal ridge passes over the region, supporting the hottest day this week.
At the surface, weak low pressure was noted northeast of Pensacola with a nearly stationary weak frontal boundary near or off the Louisiana coastline.
The subtropical ridge is expected to strengthen and move eastward out of New Mexico Tuesday, resulting in mostly dry conditions outside of some afternoon seabreeze development over the Coastal Plains.
210 PM EDT Mon Aug 4 2025 A large area of high pressure will continue to dominate the Great Lakes and New England through much of the upcoming week. A cold front resides just north of the Saint Lawrence River and a few showers may brush northern Jefferson county through sunset.
This afternoon, water vapor imagery and model 500mb heights showed a rex block like pattern over the central US and Canada with ridging over Manitoba and weak troughing over the Upper Mississippi River Valley. On Tuesday the ridge will continue to weaken and shift east as troughing moves into the Pacific NW and a ridge strengthens over the Southwest U. High temperatures will be mainly in the low 80s. S as the blocking pattern continues to break down. Overall there will be an increasing chance for showers and thunderstorms as a low level jet strengthens over the plains and shifts east, bringing warmer and humid air back into the region.
An H5 weakness resides over the Lower Mississippi River Valley. The western periphery of this UL trough is very dry leading to lower PWATs across the northwest half of the CWFA.
Otherwise, high pressure and dry conditions will continue to be in place for much of the week. High pressure remains in control this afternoon, which has resulted in mostly sunny skies. Tuesday will feature slightly warmer temperatures with highs in the 80s. Partly to mostly sunny skies are expected with high pressure remaining in control.
- Increasing shower and thunderstorm chances this weekend, with cooler temperatures.