Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
The late morning sfc analysis indicates sfc ridging anchored over the region, with a scattered cu field having developed over Deep E TX across much of N LA. One interesting note is the extensive areas of smoke depicted in the visible satellite imagery along the base of the longwave trough from Ern KS/MO into the Mid-South and portions of the SE CONUS, as well as portions of OK/Wrn and NCntrl TX, from the wildfires burning across Saskatchewan and Manitoba.
1214 PM CDT Sat May 31 2025 Updated at 1214 PM CDT Sat May 31 2025 - A few showers/storms expected in the higher terrain through the weekend (10-40% chances). In the upper- levels, a ridge over the western CONUS drifts toward our direction, with its axis setting up over the central Great Plains Sunday evening. Meanwhile, a trough off the coast of Baja California brings southerly flow aloft this afternoon.
Warm conditions continue today with slightly cooler temperatures Sunday. KEY MESSAGES: -Hot conditions continue Sunday yet a bit cooler than the past few days with highs in the mid 90s.
An upper closed low pressure area over eastern Nebraska will dive south-southeastward to become centered over southeast Mississippi and southwest Alabama by midnight Sunday night. This low will bring a cool pool of mid-level air (3C @ 700mb) along with it, as well as it's own moisture (PWATs 1. Low temperatures Sunday night should be 2 to 4 degrees warmer across the board.
123 PM EDT Sat May 31 2025 High pressure will bring cool, dry conditions through the weekend.
206 PM EDT Sat May 31 2025 High pressure will be in control through early Sunday.
With forecast dew points in the upper 20s to lower 30s, some rural areas will drop into the lower 30s, with mid to upper 30s widespread across much of the forecast area.
1129 AM MDT Sat May 31 2025 - Warmer temperatures and drier conditions will persist through the weekend. - Cooler and wetter weather returns for the start of the work week. Current radar shows a few scattered storms over the high terrain.
335 PM EDT Sat May 31 2025 A cold front will push through the region by this evening. High pressure will build into the area overnight and remain in control through much of the upcoming week. Another area of low pressure may bring a front through the region towards the end of the week. A cold front extending from Northeast Maryland into north- central Virginia and eastern West Virginia will push through the area by this evening. Dry conditions will ensue behind the front as high pressure builds in from the northwest overnight. Low temperatures will fall into the middle 40s to lower 50s with a couple of locations seeing the 30s in the ridges. A trough of low pressure axis will be positioned to our east on Sunday.
1134 AM CDT Sat May 31 2025 The late morning sfc analysis indicates sfc ridging anchored over the region, with a scattered cu field having developed over Deep E TX across much of N LA. One interesting note is the extensive areas of smoke depicted in the visible satellite imagery along the base of the longwave trough from Ern KS/MO into the Mid-South and portions of the SE CONUS, as well as portions of OK/Wrn and NCntrl TX, from the wildfires burning across Saskatchewan and Manitoba.
Lake Michigan lakeshore areas are cooler than there inland counterparts, but everyone will see temps continue to climb throughout the day. Patterson Issued 338 AM CDT Sat May 31 2025 Today and Tonight: The cold front is continuing westward across sw WI early this morning and is expected to stall just west of the MS River later today and tonight.
(This evening through Sunday) The state will be on the backside of a deep trough that is currently over the eastern half of the US. Northwest flow will keep drier and cooler air over the state through the rest of the day. Low and mid level flow will slowly transition to a westerly direction, bringing a slow increase in moisture to mainly the low levels.
Given the low confidence in this scenario, no blending was done to the NBM PoPs since they generally maxed out at 10-20% in Duval and Webb County.
A dome of high pressure will situate over our part of the country with an amplified ridge extending into middle Canada (latitude-wise).
(Tonight through Sunday night) A weak cold front is stalled just south the CWA which has lead to slightly cooler temperatures for today. Temperatures will be near normal for the rest of the weekend with highs in the low to mid 90s.
The hottest temperatures of the year so far are expected today as a high pressure aloft peaks in intensity this afternoon. As of 11:55am today, the temperature at the Reno International Airport was 91F, a solid 5 degrees warmer than the temperature at the same time yesterday. The high yesterday reached 96F, tying the record from 1986. High pressure aloft is also bringing dry conditions this weekend. But as the ridge breaks down through this evening and tomorrow, due to a low over north central Canada, the pressure gradient tightens.
(Tonight through Sunday night) Key Messages: - Isolated severe storms could develop late Sunday afternoon or evening over northeastern to eastern portions of South-Central Texas - Warmer than normal temperatures return Sunday A few daytime showers are perking up over the rain soaked Hill Country and Edwards Plateau, but model consensus has this dissipating at the end of the day. A more uniform SSE wind over the area Sunday will bring temperatures back to above normals, and the high moisture content and elevated dew points will send the heat index into the 100 to 107 range over much of the area.
1223 PM CDT Sat May 31 2025 (Today through Sunday) Cold front has made it to the coast this morning and continue to slowly move offshore today.
The biggest question is whether isolated to widely scattered showers will pop up late Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening as a fast- moving upper disturbance barrels into the area embedded within the overall upper trough axis. That being said, have continued to carry generally 15-20% POPs to account for the low-end, location-specific rain chances.
333 PM CDT Sat May 31 2025 - Smoke from wildfires in Canada will continue to filter into the area tonight through Sunday, resulting in hazy skies and possible air quality concerns, although most of the smoke should remain elevated in the higher atmosphere.
Breezy conditions will increase this afternoon in advance of a cold front that will move through tonight. A wind advisory was issued earlier, and it applies to the Lower Treasure Valley zone of Oregon. This is an area basically from Ontario westward into the lowest elevations.
As the trough moves out hazy conditions should clear out as well.
601 PM CDT Sat May 31 2025 (Tonight through Sunday night) Key Messages: - Isolated severe storms could develop late Sunday afternoon or evening over northeastern to eastern portions of South-Central Texas - Warmer than normal temperatures return Sunday A few daytime showers are perking up over the rain soaked Hill Country and Edwards Plateau, but model consensus has this dissipating at the end of the day. A more uniform SSE wind over the area Sunday will bring temperatures back to above normals, and the high moisture content and elevated dew points will send the heat index into the 100 to 107 range over much of the area.
758 PM EDT Sat May 31 2025 Low pressure heads into Quebec through Sunday as high pressure builds southwest of the area into Sunday night.
715 PM EDT Sat May 31 2025 (Through Sunday) With the whole forecast area now post frontal, dry NW flow is making for a noticeably cooler and more comfortable day. Lows tonight will be in the mid 60s, a little warmer along the coast. Then a slightly warmer day in store for tomorrow as flow becomes more zonal, with highs expected in the upper 80s to lower 90s.
630 PM CDT Sat May 31 2025 - Smoke from wildfires in Canada will continue to filter into the area tonight through Sunday, resulting in hazy skies and possible air quality concerns, although most of the smoke should remain elevated in the higher atmosphere.
- Scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms continue through Sunday (mainly over the higher terrain). - Warmer weather makes a return through the weekend, with highs back into the low 80s for most of the plains. Sunday's environment isn't much different, although a Denver cyclone boundary could help get a bit more storm activity going south of Denver in the mid to late afternoon. Temperatures will be 4 to 8 degrees warmer.
Today and tomorrow: Mostly dry cold front crossing the Puget sound and charging east early this afternoon. Dry air behind the front will keep humidity values low in the teens to low 20s Sunday despite temperatures being 10-15 degrees cooler in the 70s and low 80s.
608 PM CDT Sat May 31 2025 (This evening through Sunday) The state will be on the backside of a deep trough that is currently over the eastern half of the US. Northwest flow will keep drier and cooler air over the state through the rest of the day. Low and mid level flow will slowly transition to a westerly direction, bringing a slow increase in moisture to mainly the low levels.
634 PM CDT Sat May 31 2025 (Tonight through Sunday night) A weak cold front is stalled just south the CWA which has lead to slightly cooler temperatures for today. Temperatures will be near normal for the rest of the weekend with highs in the low to mid 90s.
921 PM EDT Sat May 31 2025 High pressure will bring cool, dry conditions through the weekend.
Otherwise, overnight lows will be noticeably cooler overnight across the Nature Coast given the drier air mass and less cloud cover expected with lows falling into the mid 60s, though lows will only be a few degrees cooler for the remainder of the region with the increased cloud cover and higher dewpoints.
1031 PM EDT Sat May 31 2025 Low pressure heads into Quebec through Sunday as high pressure builds southwest of the area into Sunday night.
659 PM EDT Sat May 31 2025 High pressure will bring cool, dry conditions through the weekend.
830 PM CDT Sat May 31 2025 An upper closed low pressure area over eastern Nebraska will dive south-southeastward to become centered over southeast Mississippi and southwest Alabama by midnight Sunday night. This low will bring a cool pool of mid-level air (3C @ 700mb) along with it, as well as it's own moisture (PWATs 1. Low temperatures Sunday night should be 2 to 4 degrees warmer across the board.
Warmer conditions and above normal temperatures for the weekend.
(Rest of tonight and Sunday) The Tennessee Valley sits underneath the western edge of an upper level trough. By Sunday, the upper level trough begins to lift further to the northeast. Therefore, expect nearly similar conditions on Sunday with highs in the lower 80s and some hazy skies due to the aforementioned smoke. The one difference will be it will not be as breezy in the afternoon due to the upper level low lifting further away from the Southeast.
817 PM EDT Sat May 31 2025 High pressure will be in control through early Sunday.
This has kept the western flank of the Atlantic ridge weak and depressed southward across Cuba, setting up light broadly westerly flow in the Keys. The lower through upper level flow has transitioned to slightly cyclonic, having fallen just within the circulation of the sprawling low over the northeast. The lower to mid level ridge is also pushed southward across Cuba and the northwestern Caribbean Sea. With that said, there is still a good amount of dry air through the lower and mid levels. Expect seasonal lows in the lower 80s and dew points holding in the mid 70s. A large low pressure system lifting northeastward through New England will keep the western flank of the Atlantic ridge suppressed to the south across Cuba and a loose pressure field in the Keys.
846 PM EDT Sat May 31 2025 A cold front will push through the region by this evening. High pressure will build into the area overnight and remain in control through much of the upcoming week. Another area of low pressure may bring a front through the region towards the end of the week. Low pressure has pushed well of to the northeast, and the associated cold front has finally pushed its way through our region. Those will depart to the northeast as the low moves even further away overnight. Dry conditions will ensue behind the front tonight as high pressure builds in from the northwest overnight. Low temperatures will fall into the middle 40s to lower 50s with a couple of locations seeing the 30s in the ridges. A trough of low pressure axis will be positioned to our east on Sunday.
A cold front is tracking across the Lower Treasure Valley this evening and moving southeastward. Temperatures on Sunday afternoon will be around 15-20 degrees cooler than today with breezy northwest winds continuing through the day.
110 AM EDT Sun Jun 1 2025 (Through Sunday) With the whole forecast area now post frontal, dry NW flow is making for a noticeably cooler and more comfortable day. Lows tonight will be in the mid 60s, a little warmer along the coast. Then a slightly warmer day in store for tomorrow as flow becomes more zonal, with highs expected in the upper 80s to lower 90s.
A cold front may bring some showers and thunderstorms toward the end of the week.
133 AM EDT Sun Jun 1 2025 High pressure will bring cool, dry conditions through the weekend.
1235 AM CDT Sun Jun 1 2025 (Rest of tonight and Sunday) The Tennessee Valley sits underneath the western edge of an upper level trough. By Sunday, the upper level trough begins to lift further to the northeast. Therefore, expect nearly similar conditions on Sunday with highs in the lower 80s and some hazy skies due to the aforementioned smoke. The one difference will be it will not be as breezy in the afternoon due to the upper level low lifting further away from the Southeast.
1253 AM CDT Sun Jun 1 2025 (Tonight through Sunday night) A weak cold front is stalled just south the CWA which has lead to slightly cooler temperatures for today. Temperatures will be near normal for the rest of the weekend with highs in the low to mid 90s.
337 AM EDT Sun Jun 1 2025 High pressure will predominate into the middle of the week. The chance of showers and thunderstorms will return late in the week as a cold front slowly approaches the area.
123 AM EDT Sun Jun 1 2025 A strong cold front then sweeps across our area through the evening.
so have kept POPs this afternoon on the low end. with upper level ridging moving overhead through Mon night. but as the upper ridge slides east by Tue. with a cold front approaching from the NW. This SFC cold front looks to stall over NWRN sections. with latest indications the higher amounts over WRN AR and points further west.
1223 AM CDT Sun Jun 1 2025 An upper closed low pressure area over eastern Nebraska will dive south-southeastward to become centered over southeast Mississippi and southwest Alabama by midnight Sunday night. This low will bring a cool pool of mid-level air (3C @ 700mb) along with it, as well as it's own moisture (PWATs 1. Low temperatures Sunday night should be 2 to 4 degrees warmer across the board.
Sunday: Dry air behind Saturday's cold front will keep humidity values low in the teens to low 20s Sunday despite temperatures being 10-15 degrees cooler in the 70s and low 80s.
A slow moving cold front approaches late in week with a return to more active weather at the end of the week and the weekend. Will monitor isolated appearance of valley fog in the higher valleys and may issue a pre-dawn update to put some valley fog into the grids.
- Daily storm chances are expected each day this week, with the highest chances across North Texas.
A slow moving cold front approaches late in week with a return to more active weather. Will monitor isolated appearance of valley fog in the higher valleys and may issue a pre-dawn update to put some valley fog into the grids.
Although forecast 850 mb flow does not show very strong winds and the flow is veered, the low-level jet may be setting up tonight at a lower level with 25 to 30 knot flow progged at 925 mb by 12Z.
155 AM EDT Sun Jun 1 2025 High pressure will be in control through this morning.
Sunday: Following Saturday's cold front, temperatures on Sunday will feel much cooler with highs in the 70s to low 80s. As the upper level trough moves across the region, models are showing enough moisture and instability across the North Cascades/Pasayten Wilderness to support a 15 to 20 percent chance of showers.
Discussion: An upper trough over the the Eastern US will persist for the short term period, and a weak short wave progressing through the flow will move across our area today bringing an increase in convection. The highest chances for showers and storms will be across central portions of the area near or just south of what is left of the decaying and nearly stationary frontal boundary.
340 AM EDT Sun Jun 1 2025 A strong cold front then sweeps across our area through the evening.
941 PM PDT Sat May 31 2025 An area of low pressure to the south will bring a chance for showers and thunderstorms this weekend. Cooler weather with temperatures near normal will occur by Sunday through much of the upcoming week. Various high-resolution guidance has backed off on the convection tomorrow afternoon as upper low and axis of higher moisture begins to push east. Isolated light showers wrapping around the back side of the low could continue into Sunday night with. Another weak area of low pressure will move southward as a trough sets up across the West and an area of high pressure builds over the NW Pacific.
252 AM MDT Sun Jun 1 2025 KEY MESSAGES: - A cold front will drop southeast through the area today bringing breezy conditions and chance for a few dry thunderstorms.
155 AM EDT Sun Jun 1 2025 Low pressure heads into Quebec through Sunday as high pressure builds southwest of the area into Sunday night.
1213 AM CDT Sun Jun 1 2025 (Tonight through Sunday night) Key Messages: - Isolated severe storms could develop late Sunday afternoon or evening over northeastern to eastern portions of South-Central Texas - Warmer than normal temperatures return Sunday A few daytime showers are perking up over the rain soaked Hill Country and Edwards Plateau, but model consensus has this dissipating at the end of the day. A more uniform SSE wind over the area Sunday will bring temperatures back to above normals, and the high moisture content and elevated dew points will send the heat index into the 100 to 107 range over much of the area.
336 AM CDT Sun Jun 1 2025 Today and Tonight: SLightly cooler than normal and mostly dry through the period. This high will continue shifting southeast over the northern Gulf through tonight.
1227 AM CDT Sun Jun 1 2025 - Smoke from wildfires in Canada will continue to filter into the area tonight through Sunday, resulting in hazy skies and possible air quality concerns, although most of the smoke should remain elevated in the higher atmosphere.
1249 AM CDT Sun Jun 1 2025 (This evening through Sunday) The state will be on the backside of a deep trough that is currently over the eastern half of the US. Northwest flow will keep drier and cooler air over the state through the rest of the day. Low and mid level flow will slowly transition to a westerly direction, bringing a slow increase in moisture to mainly the low levels.
Near term guidance keeps smoke in the region through the remainder of the day and into Monday before a cold front helps clear at least some of it. Wildfire smoke remains trapped under the ridge, maintaining the presence of near surface smoke across much of the region. Heading into Monday, a cold front brings the chance for showers and thunderstorms, with isolated severe thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening.
A couple of low pressure systems will bring elevated moisture to Arizona beginning late Sunday afternoon through at least the middle of the week.
- A series of cold fronts will bring cooler conditions to the Northern Rockies through the first half of the upcoming work week, with highs on Monday only rising into the 50s. /Issued 304 AM MDT Sun Jun 1 2025/ An upper level disturbance and series of attendant cold fronts will impact the Northern Rockies through the start of the upcoming work week; bringing cooler and wetter conditions to Southwest through North Central Montana. This upper level disturbance was beginning to move from the Pacific Northwest and towards the Northern Rockies early this morning, with the first cold front already crossing the Alberta/Montana border.
At the surface, ridging is present across the Deep South. In the upper levels, a large upper low is present over Quebec with WNW flow into AL around it into AL. This may only result in a little more cirrus than the current sky cover as the lower levels are dry. This main trough pushes out of E Conus and off the coast on Monday with very weak upper flow across AL for tomorrow.
640 AM EDT Sun Jun 1 2025 High pressure will predominate into the middle of the week. The chance of showers and thunderstorms will return late in the week as a cold front slowly approaches the area. Meanwhile, mid level heights will rise as ridging works its way westward. Expansive H5 ridge across a large portion of the central CONUS will be the primary weather driver for the start of the work week.
Weak area of high pressure persists through the week.
1021 AM EDT Sun Jun 1 2025 High pressure will build into the area and remain in control through much of the upcoming week. Another area of low pressure may bring a front through the region towards the end of the week into the weekend. Very little change needed in the near term of the forecast where high pressure will remain in control of the region the remainder of the day and tonight. High temperatures will reach the low to mid 70s for most (60s in the mountains). A few degrees warmer on Monday as the trough starts to slowly pull off towards the east.
/CR/ Today and Tonight: SLightly cooler than normal and mostly dry through the period. This high will continue shifting southeast over the northern Gulf through tonight. Otherwise, a few more sites will top out in the middle 80s this afternoon and most locations will bottom out in the low to mid 60s Monday morning. /22/ We start the week quiet with upper ridging building aloft, which will reinforce northerly flow for the time being.
606 AM CDT Sun Jun 1 2025 (Today through Monday) Key Messages: - Minor to Moderate (level 1/2 of 4) Risk of Heat-Related Impacts Sunday increasing to areas of Major (level 3 of 4) Monday A mid to upper level ridge will be over the region today through Monday, increasing subsidence and promoting warm and dry weather.
Upper troughing will still be over the Northeast U. Ridging starts building overhead on Monday and temperatures will make a decent rebound with highs nearing 70 under mostly sunny skies. Only made some minor changes from the previous forecast as the high pressure system building in will be quite dry, so lowered dew point temperatures significantly from NBM during peak mixing Monday afternoon. Cool upper level trough remains in place for one more night with temperatures in the mid 40s to low 50s. Model guidance hints at moisture riding along the back end of the trough as it exits east. Although with high pressure in place, this will most likely result in some cloud cover overnight.
610 AM CDT Sun Jun 1 2025 (Today through Monday) High pressure in the Gulf with weak low pressure across northeastern Mexico maintains a generally light southeasterly flow across Deep South Texas into the new week.
Upper-level ridge building across the region will allow for dry conditions on Monday with high temperatures forecast to climb into the lower 90s.
- Thunderstorm chances return to the area late Monday afternoon/Monday evening as thunderstorms develop along a cold front.
1020 AM EDT Sun Jun 1 2025 High pressure will predominate into the middle of the week. The chance of showers and thunderstorms will return late in the week as a cold front slowly approaches the area. Perhaps an effect of the high smoke/haze. Meanwhile, mid level heights will rise as ridging works its way westward. Expansive H5 ridge across a large portion of the central CONUS will be the primary weather driver for the start of the work week.
- Warming trend continues, topping out with highs in the lower 90s on Monday.