Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
542 AM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024 (Today) An isolated shower will be possible early this morning across parts of northeast Oklahoma, otherwise another mostly sunny and hot day is on tap, with afternoon high temperatures reaching the low to mid 90s.
The Excessive Heat warning remains in effect into this early evening, as strong surface heating and the influence of the upper ridge will lead to another day of above normal highs. Until this occurs Heat Risk will remain on the high side. Convective potential Friday should depend somewhat on how the atmosphere recovers after today, which may delay convection until it moves off the higher terrain closer to the evening.
635 AM EDT Thu Jul 11 2024 A few showers linger over portions of Central NY today, before high pressure builds back in for the end of the week and weekend. Cold front has pushed through the region and drier air is advecting in from the west. However, weak troughing will remain and a few showers will be possible, especially across the northern forecast area. Highs today will also be much cooler, only climbing into the upper 70s to low 80s with dew points in the 60s, a very comfortable day. High pressure moves in overnight and will stay overhead on Friday, with temperatures climbing back into the low to mid 80s.
554 AM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024 (Today through Friday afternoon) Relatively quiet weather persists in the short term with upper level ridging building over the Four Corners. The ridge is still displaced enough to keep temperatures near normal, and consistent with what we've seen the last few days: most spots topping out in the mid to upper 90s both today and Friday afternoons.
From synopsis, light to gentle easterly breezes will prevail across the Florida Keys coastal waters through the rest of the work week, as high pressure remains in place from the Atlantic across the Florida peninsula and into the Gulf of Mexico.
1245 PM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024 Temperatures stayed cooler during the morning with the rain and clouds over the Coastal Bend. This will be due to some energy at 500- 700mb that will make its way around the ridge in the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Otherwise, expect the usual hot and humid ("though somewhat cooler") conditions across the area with high temperatures in the 90s today and tomorrow. Despite this heat indices will still be around 105 both days due to the the higher dew points.
121 PM EDT Thu Jul 11 2024 A few showers linger over portions of Central NY today, before high pressure builds back in for the end of the week and weekend. However, this will be short-lived as the flow turns southwest aloft ahead of an upper level trough moving into the Great lakes. Cold front has pushed through the region and drier air is advecting in from the west. However, weak troughing will remain and a few showers will be possible, especially across the northern forecast area. Highs today will also be much cooler, only climbing into the upper 70s to low 80s with dew points in the 60s, a very comfortable day. High pressure moves in overnight and will stay overhead on Friday, with temperatures climbing back into the low to mid 80s.
1140 AM MDT Thu Jul 11 2024 - Becoming hotter with heat headlines possible through the weekend - Limited precipitation chances, but marginal risk isolated severe thunderstorms both this afternoon and again Friday afternoon - Elevated fire weather conditions Water vapor shows upper high over the Desert SW with flat ridge through the Pac NW/Northern Rockies and northwest flow across the Northern Plains. At the surface, high covers the eastern Dakotas with advancing lee trof over eastern MT and northern/eastern WY. Hot temperatures will continue to spread into the Plains today as western CONUS ridge nudges east. Highs will reach well into the 90s across all but far south-central SD (and the Black Hills), although lower dewpoints should keep apparent temps a touch cooler. Additional isolated activity is possible tonight given weak wave traversing the upper ridge.
Current showers lingering over Central NY will taper off through this evening, with weak high pressure building in to keep precipitation chances low through Friday morning. Temperatures will begin to warm up again, with high temperatures in the low to mid 80s Friday.
A weak mid level trough will remain to our northwest through Friday evening keeping conditions dry and warm with temperatures rising into the low to mid 90s each afternoon.
337 PM EDT Thu Jul 11 2024 Drier air over the area today with moisture and chances of showers and thunderstorms returning later tonight and Friday as an area of low pressure moves across the southeastern US. Relatively dry air is in place over the region with many locations reporting dew points in the lower to mid 60s. It will remain muggy with overnight lows in the low/mid 70s.
Spotty light rain/sprinkles should also continue to impact mainly the higher terrain along the Allegheny Front where upslope flow is maximized. Enjoy a brief break from the heat and humidity! Diminishing cloud cover and light winds associated with the arrival of high pressure tonight should set the stage for areas of fog to develop overnight. Min temps will range from the upper 50s in the Alleghenies to 65-70F in the lower Susq.
121 PM EDT Thu Jul 11 2024 Drier air over the area today with moisture and chances of showers and thunderstorms returning tonight and Friday as an area of low pressure moves across the southeastern US. Relatively dry air is in place over the region with many locations reporting dew points in the lower to mid 60s.
422 PM EDT Thu Jul 11 2024 Low pressure and remnant moisture from Beryl will cross the region tonight into Friday.
Increased cloud cover and precipitation chances will keep high temperatures near to slightly below normal for mid July with highs mostly in the low 90s.
pdf Forecast remains on track as weak low pressure development offshore this afternoon has continued to pull a drier airmass southward into SE GA and along the I-10 corridor of NE FL. Still expecting enough diurnal heating this afternoon to kick off some scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across NE FL south of the I-10 corridor, but not expecting activity to linger much past sunset and just expecting some high cloudiness aloft as low temps fall into the lower to middle 70s inland and upper 70s along the Atlantic Coastal areas. The low pressure trough over the Atlantic will drift slowly to the W-NW and bring an increase in convection over the Atlantic Coastal waters after midnight and will likely approach portions of the Southeast Georgia coastal counties towards morning.
244 PM EDT Thu Jul 11 2024 A mid-level trough is swinging through the upper Midwest this afternoon while another trough remains east of Florida. At the surface, low pressure is centered just off the northeast Florida coast with a weak boundary located across the northern peninsula. An area of showers and thunderstorms will continue to shift southward through the rest of the day as the low slowly shifts toward the coastline. Hi-res guidance continues to show some redevelopment very early tomorrow morning (starting around 06Z or so) and then the rest of the day the highest rain chances should be over inland and southern locations.
Lows Friday night will mirror tonight's lows, ranging from the mid 50s at the higher elevations of the Guadalupes to the mid 70s along the Rio Grande under mostly clear skies.
(Rest of today through Friday) A transient upper low remains embedded in the synoptic scale pattern. With very light steering flow, storm motion will be slow, with the highest storm chances in areas where sea breeze convergent zones and thunderstorm outflow boundaries interact. To round out the week, remnants of the weak/decoupled upper low will linger over South Florida. Overnight, mild low temperatures will range from the low 70s to around 80 degrees.
1240 PM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024 (Today through Friday night) The main H500 high pressure system over the Great Basin region as of the latest 08Z satellite obs will help to continue our monsoon season over the Panhandles. Rain chances may decrease even further for tomorrow (~10% chance) as the main center of the H500 high pressure system shifts further east over Utah.
High temperatures are expected to warm into the mid 90s with portions of the southeast having the potential to warm a few degrees warmer. /KP/ Today and Tonight: Our CWA will remain between mid level troughing to the north and mid level ridging to the south.
Anomalously strong high pressure remains positioned over southern NV/UT and northwestern AZ today. The high pressure center begins to slowly drift eastward tonight and Friday, centering closer to the four corners for the upcoming weekend.
Tonight, temperatures generally cool into the mid 50's to near 70 degrees in the warmer interior spots (such as the southern Santa Clara Valley). However, it will remain quite warm in the higher elevations with temperatures there in the mid 60's to mid/upper 80's in the highest elevations.
High pressure from the Upper Great Lakes will then build across the region on Friday. This fog could be dense in open areas and across the higher terrain. High pressure over the Upper Great lakes will then build across our area Friday and Friday night. The increased sunshine on Friday will make for a warmer day. as the mercury will once again return to the low to mid 80s.
Locally, high pressure is keeping the CWA warm and dry with a widespread field of fair weather cumulus clouds. Aloft, troughing is situated over the Great Lakes with the CWA under the regime of the upslope side of the trough. Through the afternoon into Friday, the trough will pivot through the area. At the surface, high pressure will remain in place but a few showers and storms may try to develop this afternoon along the aforementioned frontal boundary but those PoP chances will largely remain confined to areas west of the CWA. Clouds will decrease overnight and a decent ridge- valley split will set up tonight; as well as, areas of patchy dense valley fog. The upper-level trough will pivot through the area but once again, not expecting much in the way of PoPs.
409 PM EDT Thu Jul 11 2024 A few showers linger over portions of Central NY today, before high pressure builds back in for the end of the week and weekend. However, this will be short-lived as the flow turns southwest aloft ahead of an upper level trough moving into the Great lakes. Cold front has pushed through the region and drier air is advecting in from the west. However, weak troughing will remain and a few showers will be possible, especially across the northern forecast area. Highs today will also be much cooler, only climbing into the upper 70s to low 80s with dew points in the 60s, a very comfortable day. High pressure moves in overnight and will stay overhead on Friday, with temperatures climbing back into the low to mid 80s.
(This evening through Friday night) Upper ridging near Las Vegas, with a weaker ridge over the northern Gulf of Mexico. Troughing near Lake Michigan extended into Arkansas and east Texas. At the surface, the pressure pattern locally was rather weak with potentially a weak trough running east west along the Interstate 10 corridor. The upper pattern is not changing significantly over the next 36 hours, with ridging remaining over the northern and eastern portions of the Gulf of Mexico. Model solutions indicate the troughing should continue to weaken, and the moisture levels over southwest Mississippi will become similar to the remainder of the area by midday Friday.
The caveat for this is that dry air entrainment below the cloud layer will keep any rainfall accumulation on the lower end of the spectrum. An inverted trough across Mexico will nose eastward into South and Central Texas over the next few days, providing enough lift for scattered showers and storms in our far southern zones tomorrow afternoon.
Their impact on our max temperature forecast today is uncertain at this time, but we expect areas of the lower Treasure Valley to be a degree or two colder than forecast if the smoke continues to build.
(This evening through Friday) The synoptic pattern has not changed much over the past 24 hours as upper level ridging remains centered over the desert southwest and weak northerly flow aloft continues over West Texas. The upper ridge will shift a bit farther eastward on Friday, with the associated increase in subsidence resulting in a dry day across our area.
A subtle disturbance has moved through the region causing the strong ridge of high pressure to be flatten into westerly flow aloft. Temperatures will be slightly cooler, but still remain around 10 degrees above average for this time of year.
1058 AM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024 Temperatures stayed cooler during the morning with the rain and clouds over the Coastal Bend. This will be due to some energy at 500- 700mb that will make its way around the ridge in the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Otherwise, expect the usual hot and humid ("though somewhat cooler") conditions across the area with high temperatures in the 90s today and tomorrow. Despite this heat indices will still be around 105 both days due to the the higher dew points.
Dewpoints this afternoon are expected to remain in the low 60s across the majority of the area. With mostly clear skies, high temperatures will rise into the low to mid 90s, with the exception of the higher elevations of far north Georgia.
A broad area of weak high pressure will reside across Se Mi through the rest of the day. A diffuse high pressure system has built in across SE MI in the wake of post-tropical system Beryl, which has resulted in generally clear skies, outside of periodic stratus, and light winds.
Will be watching weak storms forming across the higher terrain of Colorado this evening. On Friday, a 597 dm anticyclone moves from the Desert Southwest to over the Great Basin to four corners region through the day. A very weak lee trough will deepen during the day, resulting in slightly breezy at times SSE to SW winds through the day of 10 to 20 mph.
Low temperatures overnight are expected to drop into the lower 70s.
Storms are expected to mostly dissipate around sunset, with lows tonight in the low to mid 70s.
1210 PM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024 (Today through Friday afternoon) Relatively quiet weather persists in the short term with upper level ridging building over the Four Corners. The ridge is still displaced enough to keep temperatures near normal, and consistent with what we've seen the last few days: most spots topping out in the mid to upper 90s both today and Friday afternoons.
1241 PM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024 Warm and dry conditions are expected to continue over the next couple of days as high pressure builds across the region.
Friday is several degrees warmer, kicking off a several day heat wave across the area. Tonight temperatures will be slightly warmer than last night into this morning, as we continue our warming trend. Upper ridge begins to push back north, kicking the upper trough away, yielding higher temperatures tomorrow.
Ridging aloft will supress convection and fair weather Cu could be expected tomorrow afternoon. Expect daytime highs generally in the mid to upper 90s with overnight lows generally in the low to mid 70s.
High pressure remains firmly in control of the weather pattern across the region.
1151 AM EDT Thu Jul 11 2024 Low pressure and remnant moisture from Beryl will cross the region tonight into Friday.
MH Issued 256 AM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024 Today through Friday: An upper level trough will slow rotate east through the region today. Highs today will be in the low 80s, with lows tonight in the 60s. Dry weather is expected Friday, with slightly warmer temperatures in the mid 80s.
1133 AM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024 (Today through Friday Night) Mid-level ridging will remain in place across the W/SW US through the period while troughing across central parts of the country will slowly push east. At the sfc, ridging will remain in place over the area with a weak frontal boundary situated north of the area.
Mostly dry and progressively warmer conditions are expected for the next several days.
1245 PM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024 (Today through Friday) There continues to be a large area of weakness in the subtropical ridge in the short-term, allowing for mid-level pockets of elevated moisture to keep stability limited over much of Texas. On Friday, an H7-H5 inverted trough sharpens over the Rio Grande Valley and drifting NW, while an upper level trough axis holds in place over W/NW TX, extending SW to NE.
Otherwise, a SW flow aloft ahead of upper trough noted on the evening water vapor imagery extending from WCntrl TX into Cntrl OK/Ozarks and across Lake MI will maintain elevated cigs over the Srn half of the region, which will limit the extent of radiational cooling despite the presence of weak sfc ridging in place. Thus, min temps tonight should be comparable to what was observed this morning, albeit a touch warmer given the slightly higher dewpoints particularly beneath these elevated cigs.
Expect another round of readings in the low 60s for northern areas tonight. Friday is several degrees warmer, kicking off a several day heat wave across the area. Tonight temperatures will be slightly warmer than last night into this morning, as we continue our warming trend. Upper ridge begins to push back north, kicking the upper trough away, yielding higher temperatures tomorrow.
731 PM EDT Thu Jul 11 2024 (Rest of today through Friday) A transient upper low remains embedded in the synoptic scale pattern. With very light steering flow, storm motion will be slow, with the highest storm chances in areas where sea breeze convergent zones and thunderstorm outflow boundaries interact. To round out the week, remnants of the weak/decoupled upper low will linger over South Florida. Overnight, mild low temperatures will range from the low 70s to around 80 degrees.
(Tonight) Another calm/quiet evening is underway across the mid TN Valley, as current temps drop mainly into the lower/mid 80s. Otherwise, with an area of weak high pressure in place east of the area, quiet wx conditions will prevail thru tonight.
A similar pattern is expected on Friday as upper level ridging remains in place over northeastern portions of the Gulf of Mexico.
A stalled frontal boundary and low pressure system has helped fuel scattered showers through the day.
If skies can stay mostly clear under light/calm winds, then effective radiational cooling may cause readings to drop closer to the low 70s or even isolated upper 60s away from the immediate coast. Ridging aloft will supress convection and fair weather Cu could be expected tomorrow afternoon. Expect daytime highs generally in the mid to upper 90s with overnight lows generally in the low to mid 70s.
Overnight we will see the same overall weather pattern that we had last night: Calm and quiet surface conditions with some scattered cloud coverage lingering over the CWA, being funneled in around the high off the East that continues to be the primary motivating factor for our weather tonight. Stable conditions persisting throughout the period will facilitate areas of patchy fog along the Highway 84 corridor during the early morning hours. Low temperatures overnight are expected to drop into the lower 70s.
944 PM EDT Thu Jul 11 2024 Moisture increases from the east through the night with chances of showers and thunderstorms returning by Friday morning as an area of low pressure moves across the southeastern US. Relatively dry air gave us a beautiful day with highs in the low 90s. It will remain muggy with overnight lows in the low/mid 70s.
- Much warmer Friday but dry. Building high pressure will prompt clearing skies and variable winds. Confidence remains high that above average temperatures will return early afternoon through late evening Friday under high pressure (prompting abundant sunshine) and warm advection from the southwest. Weak moist advection over the Carolinas, from a remnant disturbance, may stir showers along the ridges of West Virginia and Pennsylvania after 2pm Friday. Above average temperatures will continue into the weekend as the ridge axis strengthens over the Great Lakes.
616 PM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024 Mostly dry and progressively warmer conditions are expected for the next several days.
909 PM EDT Thu Jul 11 2024 Moisture increases from the east through the night with chances of showers and thunderstorms returning by Friday morning as an area of low pressure moves across the southeastern US. Relatively dry air gave us a beautiful day with highs in the low 90s. It will remain muggy with overnight lows in the low/mid 70s.
Spotty light rain/sprinkles continue to cross the higher terrain along the Allegheny Front and extending to the Endless Mountain region. The arrival of high pressure from the Ohio Valley will promote diminishing cloud cover and light winds, setting the stage for areas of fog to develop overnight. Min temps will range from the upper 50s in the Alleghenies to 65-70F in the lower Susq.
835 PM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024 High pressure is the dominant weather feature across the region, and it's going to stay that way for the foreseeable future.
620 PM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024 (This evening through Friday night) Upper ridging near Las Vegas, with a weaker ridge over the northern Gulf of Mexico. Troughing near Lake Michigan extended into Arkansas and east Texas. At the surface, the pressure pattern locally was rather weak with potentially a weak trough running east west along the Interstate 10 corridor. The upper pattern is not changing significantly over the next 36 hours, with ridging remaining over the northern and eastern portions of the Gulf of Mexico. Model solutions indicate the troughing should continue to weaken, and the moisture levels over southwest Mississippi will become similar to the remainder of the area by midday Friday.
637 PM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024 (This evening through Friday) The synoptic pattern has not changed much over the past 24 hours as upper level ridging remains centered over the desert southwest and weak northerly flow aloft continues over West Texas. The upper ridge will shift a bit farther eastward on Friday, with the associated increase in subsidence resulting in a dry day across our area.
750 PM EDT Thu Jul 11 2024 Drier air over the area today with moisture and chances of showers and thunderstorms returning later tonight and Friday as an area of low pressure moves across the southeastern US. Relatively dry air is in place over the region with many locations reporting dew points in the lower to mid 60s. It will remain muggy with overnight lows in the low/mid 70s.
801 PM EDT Thu Jul 11 2024 Low pressure and remnant moisture from Beryl will cross the region tonight into Friday.
928 PM EDT Thu Jul 11 2024 Clouds will decrease tonight as high pressure builds across the region.
212 AM EDT Fri Jul 12 2024 Low pressure along a frontal boundary will move ashore and bring moderate to heavy rain through Friday with some degree of unsettled weather lasting into Saturday. A messy low pressure system north of the Bahamas will move northward towards the Carolinas Friday. This will keep the weather quite unsettled as well as continuing to focus the highest POPS and QPF potential along and east of the boundary.
A trough noted on the 500mb chart will be swinging across our northwest this afternoon that could help bring an isolated shower or two across the area as well as some increased cloud cover. Thermodynamic profiles certainly do not favor anything much developing with CAPES on the lower side for this time of year due to lack of moisture. Higher 500mb heights start to quickly build in on the backside of the trough Saturday, pushing air and dew point temperatures up even higher with forecast highs Saturday in the upper 90s for areas west of the Cumberland Plateau.
1218 AM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024 High pressure is the dominant weather feature across the region, and it's going to stay that way for the foreseeable future.