Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
We will see increasing high level clouds into the afternoon as southern stream moisture associated with a closed low over the Gulf coast advects eastward. Continued to leave mentionable PoPs out of the forecast at this time but did increase the percent chance to the 10-14% range as opposed to the low single digits. Cold front moves through tonight into Saturday morning with mostly dry conditions. An associated surface cold front will move across the region. Low rain chances Saturday morning for portions of northeast TN, east TN mountains, and southwest VA as a cold front moves through. Cooler than normal temperatures this weekend, followed by near normal temperatures during the new work week. A cold front will bring a few showers to the northeastern third of the forecast area Saturday morning, and usher in below normal temps for the weekend.
638 AM CDT Fri Sep 6 2024 (Today and tonight) A weakening cold front is currently moving southward across the area. Despite breezy northeasterly winds, high temperatures will be similar to that of today, generally in the low-to-mid 80s.
422 AM MDT Fri Sep 6 2024 High pressure will continue to keep much of the region hot and dry over the next couple days.
The push of the driest air since Spring then arrives with a cold front through Saturday afternoon. Afternoon highs will run from the mid to upper 80s into the low 90s for most locations this afternoon and again on Saturday afternoon. Tonight trends as one last mild night with overnight lows in the mid to upper 60s in the Hill Country to the low to mid 70s elsewhere.
552 AM CDT Fri Sep 6 2024 - A cold front continues to pass through the forecast area. A cold front is currently passing through central Illinois. For the weekend, highs will be quite cooler than we have been seeing lately. Lows in the low to mid 40s are on deck for the next 3 nights.
Main upper level low is still north of the area this morning. With the strong CVA and cooler air aloft, think that going at least schc is a good forecast. This forecast looks to be on the lower end of guidance but with the clear skies could go lower. After this, ridging gradually starts to build in from the west.
Expecting temperatures to range from 95- 105 degrees across the the far interior and in the higher elevations, 80's to mid 90's inland just away from the coast, and upper 60's to mid 80's near the coast. With high pressure aloft, dry conditions will persist above the 500 foot marine layer as minimum humidities this afternoon will lower to 10-30% range. Overnight humidity recoveries will be slightly higher tonight except for the highest peaks. Tonight, expect minimum temperatures to lower into the low-to-upper 50's near the coast and adjacent coastal valleys, near 60 degrees in the South Bay and Santa Clara Valley, and the upper 60's to upper 70's in the higher elevations.
401 AM MDT Fri Sep 6 2024 - Drier and warmer this afternoon. upper level high pressure will spread into the Four Corners region and across Colorado through today and tonight.
605 AM CDT Fri Sep 6 2024 - A cold front will bring markedly cooler temperatures this weekend and refreshingly lower humidity. An upper trough is nudging a front toward the area backed by air from north central Canada. The front brings much cooler and drier air into the region.
626 AM CDT Fri Sep 6 2024 (Today) A cold front currently moving through northeast Oklahoma will continue to trek across the area today. However, the noticeably cooler and drier air will lag behind. There will be additional low chances of showers and storms across southeast Oklahoma into west-central Arkansas this afternoon in association with the advancing cold front.
Early autumn looking upper trough evident on water vapor imagery continues to dig into the region at the moment. The upper trough quickly lifts out to the northeast late tonight into Saturday (which is much faster than what it looked like a couple of days ago).
132 PM EDT Fri Sep 6 2024 A fast moving cold front will increase the risk for showers and storms later this afternoon and into the overnight hours. Much cooler on Saturday.
1131 AM MDT Fri Sep 6 2024 - High pressure builds in today through the weekend with dry and warm conditions, although isolated storms are still possible over the mountains each afternoon.
1230 PM CDT Fri Sep 6 2024 A swath of light to moderate rain showers is slowly moving across north Mississippi as a low pressure system churns along the Gulf Coast. This shower activity should slowly fizzle out in the coming hours as a cold front is just north of the Missouri Bootheel. DNM A isolated showers and possibly few thunderstorms will remain possible through this evening, associated cold frontal movement. A beautiful weekend will be on display behind today's cold front, with highs in the mid 70s to lower 80s and rain free conditions. High pressure will bring seasonable temperatures and dry weather next work-week.
(Rest of Today and Tonight) The remainder of the day will continue to be influenced by the Gulf low pressure supporting mostly cloudy conditions across the CWA. By this evening, an approaching cold front from the NW will aid in pushing overcast conditions east. Despite the approaching cold front, nearly all the impacts of it will be felt in the short term.
1124 AM MDT Fri Sep 6 2024 A ridge of high pressure will remain in control of our weather pattern today and into the weekend. Saturday looks a little warmer as a warmer 850/700 mb layer shifts into our region from the west.
The lakeshore will see the concentration of showers with the low level flow from the NNW. Delta T's are forecast to increase to the low to mid 20s C as 850 mb temps drop to around 0c or so.
1216 PM CDT Fri Sep 6 2024 - A cold front continues to pass through the forecast area. A cold front is currently passing through central Illinois. For the weekend, highs will be quite cooler than we have been seeing lately. Lows in the low to mid 40s are on deck for the next 3 nights.
Below normal temperatures will continue for tonight and Saturday with our area residing on the back edge of an 850 mb thermal trough centered over the Great Lakes region - this related to the deep mid/upper level trough located over that area.
A large and strong midlevel 596dm anticyclone was centered near the Grand Canyon at midday, with SW KS residing under the high's eastern periphery. Slightly stronger lee troughing is forecast over eastern Colorado Saturday, allowing south winds to increase modestly, gusting to near 25 mph after 10 am.
Deep west southwesterly flow has set up across the area with a digging upper level trough to our northwest and high pressure centered over Florida. The surface boundary will continue to be the primary focus for showers and storms over the next 48 hours as the southwesterly flow in the mid and upper levels continues to bring moisture up and over the low level boundary. Another reinforcing cold front will be approaching the area from the north during the day on Saturday, and may act to suppress the precipitation that has spread further inland across the area today back down to the south on Saturday. Lows tonight near normal, ranging from the mid and upper 60s well inland to the lower and middle 70s down near the coast.
Mostly clear skies this morning and early this afternoon will allow for highs to get a few degrees warmer than yesterday, with temperatures reaching into the upper 80s to around 90 degrees. The front sitting over our area this afternoon will get reinforced and surge southward tonight and into early Saturday as an upper low moves through the Midwest and high pressure builds at the surface behind it. As this happens, much drier and slightly cooler air will be ushered into our area, dropping both our highs and lows for Saturday by a few degrees.
(Rest of Today) Light WSW flow and moisture transport in the mid-levels will continue across the TN Valley for much of the day, as we will remain in the flow downstream from a weak/positively-sheared trough along the northwestern Gulf Coast. Between 21-0Z, winds aloft will veer to NW in response to an amplifying northern stream trough over the Great Lakes, and this will contribute to a diminishing trend in stratiform precip and gradual clearing trend from NW-to-SE prior to sunset.
Northwest flow over the central and northern Plains has ushered a cold front south into the Ozarks and southern Plains with high pressure building along the Missouri River.
A cold front across Arkansas to move south across the ArkLaTex late this afternoon and this evening with weak convection igniting along the boundary across south Arkansas and northeast Texas. Dry high pressure building behind the frontal boundary to allow for overnight low temperatures to fall into the low to mid 60s with the coolest temperatures along and north of I-30. Dry conditions expected on Saturday as dry high pressure becomes firmly established across the region through the weekend.
1224 PM CDT Fri Sep 6 2024 (Rest of Today) Light WSW flow and moisture transport in the mid-levels will continue across the TN Valley for much of the day, as we will remain in the flow downstream from a weak/positively-sheared trough along the northwestern Gulf Coast. Between 21-0Z, winds aloft will veer to NW in response to an amplifying northern stream trough over the Great Lakes, and this will contribute to a diminishing trend in stratiform precip and gradual clearing trend from NW-to-SE prior to sunset.
Overall, high pressure remains north over the mid-Atlantic states and over south Florida with the stationary boundary remaining situated over northern and central Florida through the forecast period. The highest rain chances will be over the interior counties east of I-75. A stationary frontal boundary remains stretched across northern Florida with high pressure over south Florida.
138 PM CDT Fri Sep 6 2024 - A cold front will bring markedly cooler temperatures this weekend and refreshingly lower humidity. Isolated convection along a cold front making passage will continue to be possible until its passage is complete. Cooler/drier air will be incoming behind the front, with some lag of course.
Upper level ridge remains over the area with warm temperatures and smoky conditions.
- Much cooler temperatures expected into Saturday.
300 PM EDT Fri Sep 6 2024 A cold front will bring a band of rain showers through the area tonight into Saturday, with cooler temperatures returning to the region in its wake.
223 PM EDT Fri Sep 6 2024 High pressure remains in control for one more day keeping conditions mild and dry. Rain and cooler temperatures return to the region tomorrow as a frontal system moves through.
This will help to keep cloud cover over portions of Central and East Texas through the early afternoon, which will help keep those locations slightly cooler through today. These rain chances will linger until a slowly descending cold front pushes through North and Central Texas this evening into the overnight hours.
1106 AM EDT Fri Sep 6 2024 A fast moving cold front will increase the risk for showers and storms later this afternoon and into the overnight hours. Much cooler on Saturday.
Bubbling cumulus are evident on satellite across the MPX CWA from the rain showers moving through as the upper level low which has dominated the weather over the last couple of days begins to move northeast over eastern Canada.
1212 PM CDT Fri Sep 6 2024 (Today and tonight) A weakening cold front is currently moving southward across the area. Despite breezy northeasterly winds, high temperatures will be similar to that of today, generally in the low-to-mid 80s.
In addition to wildfire smoke, the ridge of high pressure over the western U.
Latest upper air analysis shows the ridge still centered over the Desert Southwest. Satellite imagery shows smoke over the Pacific Northwest, with some of the smoke filtering eastward around the ridge. Tonight lows should be a few degrees warmer than last night due to the winds being more from the south.
Surface analysis reveals a cold front extending from the Red River Valley to Ontario as high pressure settles in over the Northern Plains.
(Today) A cold front currently moving through northeast Oklahoma will continue to trek across the area today. However, the noticeably cooler and drier air will lag behind. There will be additional low chances of showers and storms across southeast Oklahoma into west-central Arkansas this afternoon in association with the advancing cold front.
249 PM EDT Fri Sep 6 2024 (This afternoon through Saturday) Tropical low pressure is situated across the NW GOMEX. The low pressure will interact with the wedge front, funneling deep moisture from the GOMEX northward into portions of south GA. A weak cold front is expected to move through during the day on Saturday, helping to scouring out any lingering tropical moisture. The highest rainfall amounts should be south of MCN to CSG.
(This evening through Saturday) A few showers/thunderstorms will remain possible this afternoon as a weak upper level short wave trough moves southward over the southern Plains. Upper level short wave ridging will follow and should result in fair weather for the forecast area through Saturday. Will run with the slightly warmer NBM (relative to MOS) for overnight lows as lingering moist soils are likely to keep surface dew point temperatures for dropping as far as MOS suggests.
Today, flow aloft is out of the north northwest as broad ridging builds over the western CONUS and a Hudson Bay low lingers to our east. With high pressure found at the surface and bone dry soundings, few if any clouds will be found over the area.
1053 AM CDT Fri Sep 6 2024 A swath of light to moderate rain showers is slowly moving across north Mississippi as a low pressure system churns along the Gulf Coast. This shower activity should slowly fizzle out in the coming hours as a cold front is just north of the Missouri Bootheel. DNM A isolated showers and possibly few thunderstorms will remain possible through this evening, associated cold frontal movement. A beautiful weekend will be on display behind today's cold front, with highs in the mid 70s to lower 80s and rain free conditions. High pressure will bring seasonable temperatures and dry weather next work-week.
142 PM MDT Fri Sep 6 2024 Upper level high pressure will will maintain unseasonably warm and dry conditions across the area through the weekend with generally light winds prevailing.
1006 AM CDT Fri Sep 6 2024 - Cooler temperatures expected today and Saturday then a warming trend. Wagner Issued 353 AM CDT Fri Sep 6 2024 Today through Saturday: Nly winds and cold advection will continue today and tnt while the large upper trough over Ontario digs swd into the Great Lakes then shifts ewd. The large high pressure area following the upper trough will move to the Upper MS River Valley late tnt and Saturday. Temps will then rebound into the lower to middle 60s for Sat with perhaps some scattered cumulus clouds over ern WI.
Might need a jacket handy this evening and again tomorrow morning! Tomorrow, the temperatures will remain cooler through the day, only warming into the mid-upper 60s. Skies will remain clear, with light winds, as high pressure remains overhead. This forecast looks to be on the lower end of guidance but with the clear skies, temps could go lower. After this, ridging gradually starts to build in from the west.
205 PM EDT Fri Sep 6 2024 A weak wave of low pressure will track east along a staionary front off the Carolina Coast and could spread some light rain across parts of the area south and east of Interstate 85 through tonight. A cold front will then sweep southeast across the region on Saturday, but with little moisture.
(The rest of this afternoon and tonight) Widely scattered showers have developed across far southeast Oklahoma/west-central Arkansas this afternoon ahead of cold front.
1202 PM CDT Fri Sep 6 2024 (Today through Saturday night) Looking forward to another pleasant September day today, with clouds and northeast winds keeping highs a few degrees cooler than yesterday. High pressure to the west will build towards the Plains, allowing for sunnier skies and temperatures reaching a few degrees warmer than today, but still in the 80s.
1216 PM CDT Fri Sep 6 2024 - Cooler temperatures build in behind the front with below normal temperatures Friday through the weekend.
Airmass was quite dry with the highest PWAT values in the far SE part of MT at 0. Cumulus was forming over the high terrain this afternoon and there was some moisture aloft. Models differed on whether or not any precipitation would fall in the highest elevations, so kept a low (20-30%) PoP in the high elevation Beartooths late this afternoon through early evening. NW flow continues on Saturday and upper ridging moves overhead Sat. Saturday will be warmer as the airmass moderates, and NBM had about a 40-60% chance of hitting 90 degrees in many of the valleys. Again, had low PoPs in the highest mountain elevations in the afternoon and early evening with some models showing QPF in these areas.
- Much cooler Saturday. Cold frontal boundary exiting through the southeastern portion of the CWA this evening, mainly southeast of I-69, will bring a few remaining showers with a rumble of thunder or two possible. The colder air mass will allow lows tonight to drop into the mid to upper 40s except a bit warmer near the lake and highs only in the 60s for tomorrow.
This evening into tonight, there is a low (10-20%) probability that showers will linger along the higher terrain to the west and southwest, though little rainfall and minimal impacts are expected. In the wake of today's cold front, high pressure begins building into the region tomorrow, resulting in a gradual decrease and southward shift in precipitation chances through the day.
1240 PM MDT Fri Sep 6 2024 - High pressure continues to bring light winds, mostly clear skies, and slightly above normal temperatures on Friday.
1114 AM MDT Fri Sep 6 2024 - Drier and warmer this afternoon. upper level high pressure will spread into the Four Corners region and across Colorado through today and tonight.
300 PM EDT Fri Sep 6 2024 * Lake effect rain showers will expand across the Thumb region late today into tonight as cool, northerly flow arrives behind a cold front. * This much cooler airmass will lead to daytime highs only in the upper 50s to low 60s on Saturday.
300 PM EDT Fri Sep 6 2024 A weak wave of low pressure will track east along a staionary front off the Carolina Coast and could spread some light rain across parts of the area south and east of Interstate 85 through tonight. A cold front will then sweep southeast across the region on Saturday, but with little moisture.
231 PM EDT Fri Sep 6 2024 A fast moving cold front will increase the risk for showers and storms later this afternoon and into the overnight hours. Much cooler on Saturday.
1143 AM CDT Fri Sep 6 2024 - Temperatures will trend cooler for Friday through Saturday.
1213 PM CDT Fri Sep 6 2024 (Today) A cold front currently moving through northeast Oklahoma will continue to trek across the area today. However, the noticeably cooler and drier air will lag behind. There will be additional low chances of showers and storms across southeast Oklahoma into west-central Arkansas this afternoon in association with the advancing cold front.
Satellite imagery this morning shows little or no clouds across the region with upper level high pressure remaining centered across the interior western US. Some higher level smoke, primarily originating in OR, is moving over the ridge across the Northern Rockies and will likely contribute to increasing haze across the area today. Hoenisch High pressure will continue to keep much of the region hot and dry over the next couple days.
1222 PM CDT Fri Sep 6 2024 (Today through Saturday afternoon) WV imagery this morning shows the upper ridge centered over the junction of Arizona/Nevada/Utah, buttressed by a Canadian trough extending through Ontario in Minnesota. Just to the north, a cold front has entered northern Lea County, and is set to intrude upon the rest of the CWA today. Best chances today look to be in the lee of the mountains as the cold front generates upslope flow. Overnight lows should be a degree or two cooler than this morning's. Saturday, temperatures will be a couple of degrees cooler than today, mainly south as post-frontal air continues working south, making Saturday perhaps the coolest day this forecast.
A growing ridge is located over the desert Southwest, with our area on its northeast periphery. While the atmosphere above 500-mb will remain quite dry, the low to mid level moisture over the High Plains will be a little bit better than today. For now, just added PoPs into the higher terrain and increased them to around 15% for the High Plains.
A cold front will bring low chances of light rain across our northern half late tonight through early afternoon Saturday. Discussion: The forecast area remains squished between two weather systems; an anomalous trough swinging into the Great Lakes region and a closed upper low in the western Gulf. Enhanced moisture associated with the closed low remains primarily to our south. On-going convection across the Ohio valley will slowly track southeast tonight and into early Saturday morning in association with an approaching cold front.
This pattern has largely remained unaltered for the past several days, although undulations in the grip of the ridge associated with the North Atlantic anticyclonic flow has resulted in peaks and lulls in the surface east to southeasterlies. Combined with dew points in the upper 70s to near 80F, heat indices are in the lower to mid 230s again this afternoon.
Cyclonic flow will linger aloft, but warm air advection will ramp up in the low levels through the first part of the new week.
- Cooler-than-normal temperatures through this weekend, with widespread lows in the 40s Saturday morning.
630 PM CDT Fri Sep 6 2024 (This evening through Saturday) A few showers/thunderstorms will remain possible this afternoon as a weak upper level short wave trough moves southward over the southern Plains. Upper level short wave ridging will follow and should result in fair weather for the forecast area through Saturday. Will run with the slightly warmer NBM (relative to MOS) for overnight lows as lingering moist soils are likely to keep surface dew point temperatures for dropping as far as MOS suggests.
810 PM EDT Fri Sep 6 2024 A weak wave of low pressure will track east along a stationary front off the Carolina Coast and could spread some light rain across parts of the area south and east of Interstate 85 through tonight. A cold front will then sweep southeast across the region on Saturday, but with little moisture.
(This afternoon through Saturday) Tropical low pressure is situated across the NW GOMEX. The low pressure will interact with the wedge front, funneling deep moisture from the GOMEX northward into portions of south GA. A weak cold front is expected to move through during the day on Saturday, helping to scouring out any lingering tropical moisture. The highest rainfall amounts should be south of MCN to CSG.
- Temperatures falling into the low to middle 30s across northern WI tonight may lead to areas of frost. This low will continue to generate isolated showers through early this evening before trailing dry, cooler air moves over the area tonight into Saturday. Have lows ranging from the low to middle 30s in north-central WI, to the upper 30s to low 40s elsewhere. Anticipate the cooler air to stick around on Saturday with highs about 10 degrees below normal, ranging from the low to middle 60s.
746 PM EDT Fri Sep 6 2024 A fast moving cold front will increase the risk for showers and storms later this afternoon and into the overnight hours. Much cooler on Saturday.
637 PM CDT Fri Sep 6 2024 The low temperature forecast for tonight remains on track as newer model guidance has not varied much over the last few hours, therefore the Frost and Freeze Advisories remain unchanged. - Much cooler temperatures expected into Saturday.
528 PM EDT Fri Sep 6 2024 A cold front will bring a band of rain showers through the area tonight into Saturday, with cooler temperatures returning to the region in its wake.