Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
300 AM PDT Sun Jul 7 2024 The heat will continue inland as high pressure dominates the region this week.
Even with upper 60 dewpoints, higher LCLs should limit overall tornado risk, but cannot rule one out across western/northwestern Oklahoma near the low level boundaries this afternoon. Otherwise, temperatures will be cooler across the north today with expected precip and cloud cover with warmer readings across the south, where far southwest Oklahoma and north Texas could flirt with the century mark. This gradient will also be there for tonight as the north will see temps in the lower 60s to near 70 along with Red river.
The main focus of the forecast centers around Tropical Storm Beryl, an approaching trough in the northern Plains and the interaction between the two. Global guidance seems to be trending stronger and more negatively tilted with the upper trough that ultimately captures Beryl and sends its remnants to the northeast.
950 AM EDT Sun Jul 7 2024 High pressure centered over Lake Erie will slowly drift east and provide us with fair dry weather through Monday night.
The persistent ridge anchored over the West will keep us locked in the warm and dry air mass for another day. A few clouds spilling over the front of the ridge might be spotted along the Continental Divide this afternoon, but precipitation concerns are quickly muted by the dry boundary layer conditions in place.
From synopsis, gentle southeast to south breezes will continue across the Keys coastal waters through Monday, between high pressure over the western Atlantic and Tropical Storm Beryl over the western Gulf of Mexico.
An upper trough over the Great Plains will send a cold front into the area Monday bringing a quick return of cooler temperatures. Highs will depend on the speed and timing of the cold front, which will in turn depend on the strength and speed of Beryl in the Gulf of Mexico. Northerly flow on the western side of the tropical storm will help pull the cold front south so the faster and stronger the storm is, the faster the front will move through.
955 AM EDT Sun Jul 7 2024 High pressure centered over Lake Erie will slowly drift east and provide us with fair dry weather through Monday night.
635 AM EDT Sun Jul 7 2024 High pressure will continue to extend across the region through Monday, keeping the area dry. High temperatures will be about a category warmer than yesterday - in the mid and upper 80s. Milder temperatures with lows from the lower 60s in the cooler locations to the mid/upper 60s in the cities. Warm up to continue with highs in the upper 80s to the lower 90s. Monday night will remain dry as high pressure continues moving east of the Ohio Valley. Forecast lows remain mild in the lower 70s.
Dry weather is expected today as surface and mid-level ridging slide across the area. Expect beautiful weather in the form of partly to mostly sunny skies with highs in the low 80s. Troughing slowly advances into the upper Great Lakes Monday, with weak impulses ahead of this trough, combined with diurnal enhancement from warm July sunshine, reinvigorating a chance (20-40 percent) of showers and storms Monday. - Convergent, moist flow through the first half of the week The pattern for the upcoming week will be dominated by a building high pressure system over the intermountain west and the corresponding deep trough moving through the central CONUS that will bring convergent moist flow over the midwest this week. The upper level 500mb trough will become a conveyor belt for moisture.
(Rest of Today) After morning lows in the middle 60s to around 70, temperatures are warming through the 70s into the lower 80s at this hour. At the surface, northeast-to east flow has helped provided a cooler morning and will keep dew points in the 60s for most areas today. Higher dew points in the lower 70s just to our south may tend to creep northward toward the I-59 corridor this afternoon. This added moisture along the higher terrain in our far southeast counties may aid isolated shower and thunderstorm development this afternoon. Otherwise, expect temperatures to reach the lower to middle 90s for afternoon highs.
Warmer temperatures, moderate humidity and light winds are forecast across the Midsouth today.
446 AM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024 Today through tonight: A weak frontal boundary continues to focus greater moisture over southern portions of the forecast area as of early this morning, but the front and moisture will lift north later today into tonight to as southerly flow increases downwind of an approaching upper level trough.
With high temperatures and enhanced tropical moisture in the area, oppressive heat will once again be a concern this afternoon, especially if convection does not develop until the late afternoon as the high-res models suggest. Current guidance shows today's high temperatures reaching the low-mid 90s across much of the region, with peak heat indices in the 105-110 degree range. Overnight temperatures will remain warm, providing little relief from the heat, with lows in the mid 70s over the interior and in the low 80s along the immediate coastlines.
Upper level ridging will nudge in from the west as Tropical Storm Beryl approaches the middle Texas coast. A cold front will then move into the Big Country overnight which may lead to scattered shower and thunderstorm development mainly along and north of the I-20 corridor.
415 AM MDT Sun Jul 7 2024 Updated Aviation Discussion Drier and warmer conditions develop today under a northwest flow aloft.
838 AM MDT Sun Jul 7 2024 Drier and warmer conditions develop today under a northwest flow aloft.
(Today through Monday night) Overall slightly cooler temperatures on tap this morning in the mid to upper 70s.
The 850 mb flow across NC is from the E - upslope for the Blue Ridge and downslope for the TN Valley. Satellite is starting to show some convective development along the NC ridges. Discussion: In the upper levels, a trough is deepening over the Great Plains and a weak ridge is over the Northeast. At the surface, high pressure is centered over the Ohio Valley drifting into the Northeast tonight. Highs will be in the lower to mid 90s.
542 AM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024 (Today) As a cold front begins to lift northward into the TN Valley, low chances (20% or less) of showers/storms are forecast this afternoon into the evening with confidence remaining higher primarily south of the Tennessee River. Mostly cloudy skies are forecast throughout the day as high temperatures climb into the low to mid 90s.
Seasonably cool temperatures are anticipated through Monday with highs in the low to mid 80s for most areas.
745 AM EDT Sun Jul 7 2024 Dry weather is anticipated to continue into Monday under high pressure.
In the upper levels, an impressive ridge remains anchored over the west coast, while southeastern Arizona sits on the southeastern periphery of the anomalous mid to upper level heights. With this ridge axis position, climate sites in southeastern Arizona should tease record highs over the next several days.
622 AM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024 Warmer temperatures, moderate humidity and light winds are forecast across the Midsouth today.
Flow across the plains early this AM was generally easterly, and solid 50 dwpts were noted over most of the lower elevations. Monday will be relatively quite cool with max temp readings only in the lower to mid 80s across the plains and 70s valleys.
1012 AM EDT Sun Jul 7 2024 High pressure will continue to extend across the region through Monday, keeping the area dry. Milder temperatures with lows from the lower 60s in the cooler locations to the mid/upper 60s in the cities. Warm up to continue with highs in the upper 80s to the lower 90s. Monday night will remain dry as high pressure continues moving east of the Ohio Valley. Forecast lows remain mild in the lower 70s.
700 AM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024 Today through tonight: A weak frontal boundary continues to focus greater moisture over southern portions of the forecast area as of early this morning, but the front and moisture will lift north later today into tonight to as southerly flow increases downwind of an approaching upper level trough.
Satellite imagery, most notably low-level water vapor, is showing a high-amplitude ridge of high pressure with its axis over the West Coast this afternoon. The same imagery product is indicating a hot and dry airmass under the ridge. The northwesterly flow that has been over the Northern Rockies will transition east as high pressure sets in overnight.
1231 PM MST Sun Jul 7 2024 Extreme heat will continue to prevail through the upcoming week as strong high pressure remains entrenched across the region. High temperatures across the lower deserts will range between 112-120 degrees. High temperatures across the lower deserts will range between 112-120 degrees, with the highest readings across the western deserts.
212 PM EDT Sun Jul 7 2024 High pressure centered over Lake Erie will slowly drift east and provide us with fair dry weather through Monday night.
(This evening through Monday) An upper level ridge will remain over the western CONUS through Monday. Trailing portion of a cold front (associated with an upper trough gradually shifting east across the northern and central Plains) will push south across our area late tonight into the day Monday. Temperatures will be a little cooler in our southern counties, but most noticeably cooler in the Big Country. Highs on Monday are expected to range from the mid to upper 80s in the Big Country, to the lower/mid 90s in the Northern Edwards Plateau.
Isolated thundershowers are present over northwest WI early this afternoon ahead of an upper-level trough axis that continues to plague the Upper Midwest.
1214 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024 Warmer temperatures, moderate humidity and light winds are forecast across the Midsouth today.
/NF/ Today through tonight: A weak frontal boundary continues to focus greater moisture over southern portions of the forecast area as of early this morning, but the front and moisture will lift north later today into tonight to as southerly flow increases downwind of an approaching upper level trough.
1059 AM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024 (Rest of Today) After morning lows in the middle 60s to around 70, temperatures are warming through the 70s into the lower 80s at this hour. At the surface, northeast-to east flow has helped provided a cooler morning and will keep dew points in the 60s for most areas today. Higher dew points in the lower 70s just to our south may tend to creep northward toward the I-59 corridor this afternoon. This added moisture along the higher terrain in our far southeast counties may aid isolated shower and thunderstorm development this afternoon. Otherwise, expect temperatures to reach the lower to middle 90s for afternoon highs.
Coverage and intensity trends have been down over the last hour or two with the loss of the low level jet and a more stable airmass in place over northeast Oklahoma this morning. Most CAM guidance continues to indicate additional thunderstorm development along a weak surface boundary within the broad upper level trough axis across northeast Oklahoma later this afternoon and evening. If enough sun can break through this afternoon, then sufficient recovery should allow for this scenario to unfold, with possibly multiple rounds of storms setting up along the boundary this evening as the low level jet again intensifies and low level moisture advection increases into the region.
A broad long wave trough span from east to west from New England to the northern Rockies with axis extending through the central Plains region. A semipermanent ridge of high pressure is set up over the west and has continued to build. Better theta-e advection is off to the east of the area within the higher PW airmass. Into Monday, the parent trough aloft finally begins to work east as the western ridge builds and expands east.
A high pressure system remains just off the West Coast this morning with northwesterly flow aloft.
Rain chance expands to the Plateau tomorrow as low level moisture increases along a weak inverted trough. In the mid and upper levels, high pressure will remain centered over the GA coast area. At the surface, high pressure will be over New England with a weak inverted trough located across the TN Valley region. With this trough will come slightly higher surface dewpoints tomorrow, with some spots into the lower 70s. With the higher dewpoints and temperatures in the lower to mid 90s, the heat index tomorrow afternoon will reach 100 to 105 in the southern Valley areas.
Weak upper ridge remains centered over the state into Monday trapped between the 2 well defined upper lows, one associated with Beryl in the W Gulf and the upper low in the W Atlantic. Weak high pressure at the surface will keep the gradient weak with another day of hot and humid conditions into Monday along with scattered afternoon showers and storms developing along the W FL sea breeze during the afternoon and pushing inland through the evening.
458 PM EDT Sun Jul 7 2024 Dry weather will continue into Monday before active weather returns midweek, associated with a passing trough and the remnants of Beryl.
129 PM EDT Sun Jul 7 2024 Dry weather will continue into Monday before active weather returns midweek, associated with a passing trough and the remnants of Beryl.
(Through Monday) Deep layer moisture remains over the area through the near term along with some ridging aloft.
132 PM EDT Sun Jul 7 2024 High pressure will continue to extend across the region through Monday, keeping the area dry. Temperatures will still rise a few more degrees before reaching the high for the day. Milder temperatures with lows from the lower 60s in the cooler locations to the mid/upper 60s in the cities. Warm up to continue with highs in the upper 80s to the lower 90s. Monday night will remain dry as high pressure continues moving east of the Ohio Valley. Forecast lows remain mild in the lower 70s.
1212 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024 (Today through Monday night) Overall slightly cooler temperatures on tap this morning in the mid to upper 70s.
A limiting factor to any convection will be warmer temperatures aloft of -4 to -5C. Temperatures have crept into the lower 90s along the coast and mid-90s inland, with widespread heat indices 100-107 degrees.
Even with the decrease in low level moisture, another round of storms is possible off the Palmer Divide in Eastern Colorado as the main trough axis begins to swing through. For tonight, storms are forecast to end through the early night as the trough axis swings east of the area and drier air moves in with northerly flow. Tomorrow, is forecast to be a fairly mild day as the area transition to the backside of the upper trough with broad high pressure across the area. With this, mostly sunny skies are forecast with highs warming into the low 80's. There may be a stray shower/storm in Eastern Colorado that develops off the higher terrain.
The most areal coverage should be tonight, when the low level jet is at its strongest. Highs today and tomorrow will be in the upper 70s to low 80s, with overnight lows in the low to mid 60s.
At least we are running a degree or two cooler than this time yesterday.
338 PM EDT Sun Jul 7 2024 High pressure will persist through Monday.
(This evening through Monday) An upper level ridge will remain over the western CONUS. Trailing portion of a cold front (associated with an upper trough gradually shifting east across the northern and central Plains) will push south across our area late tonight into the day Monday. Temperatures will be a little cooler in our southern counties, but most noticeably cooler in the Big Country. Highs on Monday are expected to range from the mid to upper 80s in the Big Country, to the lower/mid 90s in the Northern Edwards Plateau.
Drier and warmer conditions develop today under a northwest flow aloft.
141 PM PDT Sun Jul 7 2024 Slightly cooler west of the mountains through Monday, with heat continuing in the deserts.
An upper level ridge will remain over the western CONUS through Monday. Trailing portion of a cold front (associated with an upper trough gradually shifting east across the northern and central Plains) will push south across our area late tonight into the day Monday. Temperatures will be a little cooler in our southern counties, but most noticeably cooler in the Big Country. Highs on Monday are expected to range from the mid to upper 80s in the Big Country, to the lower/mid 90s in the Northern Edwards Plateau.
927 AM PDT Sun Jul 7 2024 The heat will continue inland as high pressure dominates the region this week.
The region today will remain positioned along the downstream side of a mid-level trough extending across the Midwestern States. Dew points are not as high as previous days, only in the low to mid 70s, yielding heat indices in the upper 90s to around 100.
Monday morning a surface cold front currently located over southern Kansas will be moving into our forecast area. This front will also bring another shot of cooler air into the region and with the cloudy and rainy start to the day temperatures will be much cooler tomorrow with locations on the Caprock struggling to reach 80 degrees while east of the escarpment temperatures should warm into the lower 80s.
307 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024 Through Tonight: A lifting warm frontal boundary has allowed for more of the forecast area to experience July heat and humidity this afternoon.
157 PM MDT Sun Jul 7 2024 The short term will see a drying trend with warming temperatures as upper ridging from the west starts to slide east. This will lead to quiet weather with temperatures reaching into the low 80s in the east to upper 80s across much of the rest of the region tomorrow.
Mid-level vorticity analysis places an expansive ridge extending from the Gulf Coast all the way to the eastern North Atlantic, along with a weak tropical wave approaching central Cuba. Further aloft, a distinct Tropical Upper Tropospheric Trough (TUTT) cell is stationed southeast of the Carolina coastline. Finally, at the surface, high pressure extends across the Atlantic, with Tropical Storm Beryl slowly approaching the Texas coastline.
Hot and dry conditions will persist under a strong upper level ridge through the first half of the week. Some relief is expected around midweek as the ridge moves eastward and weakens.
245 PM EDT Sun Jul 7 2024 High pressure brings a dry finish to the weekend.
- Dry and warmer the rest of the week. Current Water Vapor and upper air models show upper trough over the northern plains this afternoon, with upper ridge building over the west coast. Surface analysis depicts low pressure over the eastern Dakotas, with a N/S boundary running down into Nebraska. Later tonight through Monday the upper ridge builds over the western CONUS into the Rockies, and eventually over the northern and central plains later in the week. This pattern shift will bring warmer and dry conditions the rest of this week.
Temperatures look on track reach the low to middle 90s before cloud cover builds in from the south and northwest.
The cloud cover and a slight increase in dew points will keep low temperatures in the lower to middle 70s by Monday morning.
An upper trough extending west to east from the Bighorns to New England, will continue to move to the east this afternoon into tonight. Heading into Monday, the upper trough remains over the Central High Plains, while an upper ridge moves over the PACNW. Southwest flow will be in place over the area and warmer air is expected to move in. Expected highs will be in the low to mid-80s.
721 PM EDT Sun Jul 7 2024 High pressure will persist through Monday.
758 PM EDT Sun Jul 7 2024 Dry weather will continue into Monday before active weather returns midweek, associated with a passing trough and the remnants of Beryl.
804 PM EDT Sun Jul 7 2024 (Through Monday) Deep layer moisture remains over the area through the near term along with some ridging aloft.
Monday night looks to be quiet as high pressure briefly builds into the region.
Weak high pressure is expected to remain over the E Gulf waters with generally light winds and seas 2 ft or less through the week with no headlines expected.
Early this afternoon satellite imagery shows the high pressure center that has been driving our warm, dry weather for much of the last week has slightly shifted to the east/southeast and now straddles the coast of northern California. High pressure will persist over the West throughout the remainder of the week ahead according to model consensus.
Water vapor satellite imagery indicates the broad trough located over the upper Midwest today with decent mid to upper level moisture in place over our area. The messy trough will start to shift eastward on Monday as the strong ridge that has been locked in over the West coast over the last few days starts to expand eastward. Even afternoon cumulus will be mostly confined to the higher terrain and the Cheyenne ridge. Temperatures will remain on the cool side though as the low level cool air will be slower to evacuate.
At least we are running a degree or two cooler than this time yesterday in Tucson.
Extreme heat will continue to prevail through the upcoming week as strong high pressure remains entrenched across the region. High temperatures across the lower deserts will range between 112-120 degrees. High temperatures across the lower deserts will range between 112-120 degrees, with the highest readings across the western deserts.
Lows will range from the mid 70s well inland to the lower 80s at the beaches and Downtown Charleston.
705 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024 Through Tonight: A lifting warm frontal boundary has allowed for more of the forecast area to experience July heat and humidity this afternoon.
Additional elevated scattered showers/storms are expected through the night across eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas as a cold front and associated mid-level trof push into the region from the north and west.
829 PM EDT Sun Jul 7 2024 Dry weather will continue into Monday before active weather returns midweek, associated with a passing trough and the remnants of Beryl.
622 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024 An upper level ridge will remain over the western CONUS through Monday. Trailing portion of a cold front (associated with an upper trough gradually shifting east across the northern and central Plains) will push south across our area late tonight into the day Monday. Temperatures will be a little cooler in our southern counties, but most noticeably cooler in the Big Country. Highs on Monday are expected to range from the mid to upper 80s in the Big Country, to the lower/mid 90s in the Northern Edwards Plateau.
929 PM EDT Sun Jul 7 2024 High pressure will persist through Monday.
(Rest of tonight) Latest surface observational data suggests that a diffuse trough/warm front continues to lie across the local forecast area this evening, with a modifying continental airmass (featuring dewpoints in the m-u 60s) to the north and a slightly more moist airmass (featuring dewpoints in the lower 70s) to the south. Additional thunderstorms which developed along a marine warm front across southern portions of MS/AL/GA will continue to dissipate quickly over the next couple of hours, and should likewise have no impact on our region. In addition to the risk for some pockets of light rain, patchy fog may tend to develop between 8-13Z near larger water sources (especially if some breaks in the high clouds materialize). Lows will be a bit warmer than last night due to clouds and some moistening of the boundary layer, with readings in the u60s-m70s.
Surface analysis depicts sprawling high pressure over the Atlantic and extending westward to the Bahamas, with Hurricane Beryl about to make landfall along the Texas coast. Aloft, a compact mid/upper level ridge is centered over the Florida peninsula, between Beryl to the west and a well-defined Tropical Upper Tropospheric Trough (TUTT) cell spinning well northeast of the Bahamas. The main weather concern for today will be the heat, as forecast highs in the lower 90s and dewpoints in the upper 70s push heat indices to 108F or higher from late morning through the afternoon.