Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
00Z sfc analysis shows high pressure working deeper into the area from the north. Currently, temperatures are running in the mid 60s on the ridges and in the more open terrain with some upper 50s found in the sheltered valleys. Expect a decent ridge to valley split tonight along with river valley fog formation - especially for the far east. Aloft, H500 heights rise from 583 to 590 decameters through the short term as low pressure and its associated trough lift northeast out of New England and the eastern CONUS while a high pressure centered over Texas noses its way into the Ohio and Tennessee valley regions. The period begins with upper-level ridge building across the southern CONUS. Temperatures on Friday afternoon will climb into the mid-80s and by the end of the weekend into the low-90s.
(Today through Friday Night) A large area of high pressure will wobble from the Ohio Valley to the mid-Atlantic states. Clockwise flow around the high will continue to usher in a mild east/northeast wind today, and this will result in below average temperatures. Looking aloft, troughing east of the Mississippi River will slowly exit toward the Atlantic Ocean. Ridging over the Plains will gradually build in our direction.
355 AM EDT Thu Aug 22 2024 The slow moving upper level storm system that has been circulating clouds and cooler conditions during the past couple days will give way to high pressure that will bring fair weather with day to day warming into the upcoming weekend. Upper level trough over northern New England will lift very slowly into the Canadian Maritimes by tonight. Areas west of the Finger Lakes will enjoy fair dry weather as expansive high pressure over the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley drifts into the region.
106 AM CDT Thu Aug 22 2024 Sfc ridging remains anchored this evening from the Cntrl Great Lakes Region SW into E TX this evening, and with the loss of mixing since sunset, drier sfc air has been able to spill back SW into the Wrn sections of E TX. Quiet conditions should continue through the overnight hours under dry NW flow ahead of upper ridging centered over Ern NM/W TX, although the short term progs continue to suggest weak isentropic forcing in the H850-700 lyr developing just prior to daybreak Thursday over ECntrl TX, which "may" lead to enough forcing for very isolated areas of -RA over this area.
254 AM EDT Thu Aug 22 2024 High pressure in place across the region with below normal temperatures will gradually shift offshore into this weekend, yielding a return to near normal temperatures. Thursday night looks quite, clear, and cool once again with lows in the low to mid 50s (upper 40s for the Poconos). The upper low system will be departing well northeast of our area by Friday as quasi-zonal flow sets up in its wake locally.
(Today) A large area of high pressure continues to dominate a good portion of the Great Lake region and parts of the Ohio Valley. However, it will likely help to keep afternoon temperatures just tad cooler than the mixing of 925 mb temperatures (22 to 23 degrees Celsius) would suggest.
125 AM EDT Thu Aug 22 2024 High pressure in control through the end of the week into the weekend. High pressure settling in over the Great Lakes which will be the primary driver of the sensible weather for the foreseeable future.
1123 PM CDT Wed Aug 21 2024 (Tonight through Friday night) A broad high pressure area centered over the Great Lakes region will maintain light Easterly to Northeasterly winds across the region this afternoon through Thursday which will maintain the unseasonably dry airmass across the region through Thursday night. Ridging aloft centered over northern Texas will suppress convection and all except scattered fair weather CU which will allow afternoon highs to climb into the mid 90s Thursday afternoon. Meanwhile, an upper level low is progged to cut off across the Northeastern Gulf of Mexico.
High pressure over the Mid-Atlantic region paired with northeast flow will result in amazing radiational cooling this morning. Generally, lows this morning will be in the low to mid 50s across the region, but a few colder spots could drop into the upper 40s. Thursday will continue to see 595dm H5 heights over Texas while a slow moving 565dm upper low resides over Maine. Between these two systems, longwave troughing will remain in place across the East Coast, supporting a continued period of dry weather with below normal temperatures and limited precip chances.
Moisture continues to push northward along with added forcing from an MCV moving northward from the lower deserts, which should help to sustain and develop overnight convection. Remaining debris cloud from the overnight convection may delay initiation, but added dynamics from an approaching trough will help to alleviate this. Outside of the flash flood threat, a few strong to severe storms will be possible given the added dynamics from the trough descending into the Great Basin.
(Today through Friday) A weak inverted trough will be in place today, with high pressure in the Mid-Atlantic. Friday should dry and sunny across the area as high pressure builds into the area.
1059 PM CDT Wed Aug 21 2024 - Trending warmer with low precipitation chances (20-30%) Thursday and Thursday night into Friday morning.
254 AM CDT Thu Aug 22 2024 - High pressure and mild weather will remain through today, with temperatures on the rise Friday and beyond.
Upper ridging is expected to continue to amplify and slowly slide east over the area through the forecast period. A compact wave will be moving around the mid level ridge tonight, combining with subtle warm moist advection. A few hit-or-miss showers and storms may result (20-30% chance) and/or roll off the High Plains tonight into tomorrow morning across portions of central and south central KS.
Tonight and Thursday High pressure and dry air will prevail over the area through this forecast period, resulting in mostly clear/sunny skies.
239 AM MDT Thu Aug 22 2024 Look for 500 mb heights to build over our region as ridging re- asserts itself. Some of the CAM's are hinting at a little weak convection over and near the mountains early in the evening, so we added slight chance PoPs to the high country through mid evening. upper ridge axis gets shifted to the east a bit as large upper low drops to the Pacific NW coast. Deep S/SW flow develops over southwest Montana with thermal ridge to the east.
pdf Upper level troughing from out of the west will develop into cutoff low over the course of today and tonight over the Florida panhandle, while high pressure from out of the east presses in creating a tighter pressure gradient over the region resulting in breezy northeasterly winds throughout much of the day. High temperatures for today will be in the lower to mid 80s over southeast Georgia and in the mid to upper 80s for northeast Florida. Overnight low temperatures will drop down into the upper 60s for inland southeast Georgia and in the lower to mid 70s for northeast Florida.
Large area of strong high pressure remains centered from Quebec thru the Great Lakes into the Mid Mississippi Valley and Ohio Valley early this morning. High pressure center will remain in place thru today. This will allow developing low pressure currently over the Northern Plains to push toward the Upper Mississippi Valley later tonight. with troughing over the western US, sharp ridging over the central continent, and troughing in the east. Some energy trying to slip through the broader ridge over the Upper Midwest, but struggling to do much aside from mainly high clouds. as ridging remains generally in control of our weather for the time being. One more cool night Thursday night with potential for interior locales to drop into the lower 40s again.
The upper level trough will begin to lose its grip on the area later today, with rising heights leading to more sunshine and rebounding temperatures. However, lingering chill aloft should still result in decent amount of cumulus development across the northeast part of the forecast area and a stray shower can't be ruled out over the high terrain north and east of KIPT. Have, thus leaned toward the lower MAV numbers. Ensemble mean 850mb temps around 12C supports max temps from the mid 70s over the N Mtns, to the low 80s in the Susq Valley.
(Today and tonight) Bottom line up front is even hotter temperatures today as thickness values climb a touch higher as an upper level ridge positions itself directly over the region.
137 AM EDT Thu Aug 22 2024 The slow moving upper level storm system that has been circulating clouds and Fall-like conditions across our region during the past couple days will now give way to high pressure that will guarantee fair weather with day to day warming into the upcoming weekend. Mins will once again dip into the low to mid 40s across the interior of the Srn Tier. while the lake plains will generally experience readings in the low to mid 50s. expansive high pressure over the Mid west will make its way to the Mid Atlantic region.
347 AM EDT Thu Aug 22 2024 The pattern aloft over the Florida peninsula this morning features troughing across the north and ridging extending westward across the south. A surface boundary remains draped across the region with the ridge axis south of the local area.
201 AM EDT Thu Aug 22 2024 - Warming up - Mainly dry through the weekend - Warming up Persistent south to southwest low level flow will advect a warmer air mass into Lower Michigan into the weekend. Warming continues into the weekend and with 925 mb temps rising into the low 20 deg C range, that will translate to max temperatures in the 80's.
We started the day with temperatures in the upper 40s to low 50s! The rest of today will be great with highs in the low to mid 80s, a few passing clouds, and a nice northeast breeze.
Slightly warmer weather today, but still below average temperatures until tomorrow. Discussion: Currently another cool early morning across the region with temperatures running a few degrees warmer than what we experienced yesterday morning. This slightly warmer temperature trend will continue throughout the daytime today with afternoon highs expected to be a few degrees hotter than yesterday, but still below averages for this time of year. Some of the high resolution models are depicting a very weak boundary trying to produce some isolated showers across far southeast TN and southwest NC for this afternoon/evening.
At the surface, high pressure strengthens over the mid-Atlantic region and wedges southward down the Atlantic coast and interacts with the stationary boundary draped across north-central FL.
The upper levels consist of a ridge over TX/NM in between troughing over New England and the British Columbia coast. Heading into tonight and Thursday, a weak perturbation on the northern periphery of the upper ridge along with upslope flow should help to develop convection off the High Plains. Meanwhile, the upper trough near British Columbia will have been amplifying and digging along the western US.
222 AM EDT Thu Aug 22 2024 High pressure along with cooler and drier air persists into the weekend.
Shower/storm activity rolling east off the High Plains in concert with persistent 800-600mb warm advection amidst a swath of seasonably high precipitable waters will support isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms through about mid to late morning, generally along and west of the Flint Hills. With the upper ridge axis getting just east of the region by this weekend, periodic isolated to widely scattered hit-or-miss shower/storm chances will likely continue, as rich mid-level monsoonal moisture streams in from the southwest CONUS and northern Mexico. These hit-or-miss rain chances may also be aided by a lee trough and eventual weak cool front meandering east-southeast into the region.
A mid level ridge will gradually move eastward today, centering over the Texas Panhandle.
(Today through Friday) The upper level ridge has shifted to the east and is centered over west TX this morning. At the surface a stationary front remains draped along the eastern edge of the ridge extending from the Texas Panhandle to Galveston. Models have come in a little bit warmer and while high temperatures will be down from yesterday, they will still be 100 or higher in most places. The upper ridge will weaken slightly tonight and Friday and some minor height falls may take a few degrees off the high temperatures.
High pressure over the Great Lakes will continue to settle south, resulting in light to calm winds over the area. Under mostly clear skies, good radiational cooling within the dry airmass in place will support chilly temps for this time of year, ranging from upper 40s/lower 50s in the cooler locations to mid 50s elsewhere. Thursday will continue to see 595dm H5 heights over Texas while a slow moving 565dm upper low resides over Maine. Between these two systems, longwave troughing will remain in place across the East Coast, supporting a continued period of dry weather with below normal temperatures and limited precip chances.
1005 PM CDT Wed Aug 21 2024 Sfc ridging remains anchored this evening from the Cntrl Great Lakes Region SW into E TX this evening, and with the loss of mixing since sunset, drier sfc air has been able to spill back SW into the Wrn sections of E TX. Quiet conditions should continue through the overnight hours under dry NW flow ahead of upper ridging centered over Ern NM/W TX, although the short term progs continue to suggest weak isentropic forcing in the H850-700 lyr developing just prior to daybreak Thursday over ECntrl TX, which "may" lead to enough forcing for very isolated areas of -RA over this area.
Water vapor imagery/RAP analysis this morning continue to show Upper Michigan under the influence of high pressure.
The area is still locked with the large dome of high pressure with the H3 center over the NewMexico/WestTexas area. A large upper trough near the west coast and one over the east coast makes this looks like an omega block and this will stall for a few days locking this large high over the area but there will be one change coming. The upper trough over the east coast will dig into the Yucatan area over the next 24-36hrs. The base of this trough will cut off into an upper low and move west over the gulf.
An upper level ridge will build over the CWA for a few days, allowing for drier/warmer conditions to move back in.
Tonight, another cool night is in store for all, with temperatures expected to be a few degrees warmer than this morning. Tomorrow afternoon the weather looks to be a near copy paste once more, a tad warmer, though some guidance tries to form a shower in the North Carolina counties.
1125 PM EDT Wed Aug 21 2024 *Early taste of Fall fades with seasonal warmup by the weekend *Summertime conditions return for the last week of August Lake clouds and residual remnant clouds from earlier light shra extend from the NW Mountains to the Lower Susq late this evening. Partly to mostly sunny skies with max temps in the upper 60s to mid 70s trend warmer day/day, but remain 5-10 degrees below late August climo. Summertime conditions then make a comeback by late week and into the weekend, with a warmer return southerly flow developing Friday as the high slips off of the East Coast. Humidity and temperatures continue to increase throughout this weekend thanks to southerly return flow behind retreating high pressure.
134 AM EDT Thu Aug 22 2024 High pressure along with cooler and drier air moving into the region continues to persist into the weekend.
The pattern aloft over the Florida peninsula this morning features troughing across the north and ridging extending westward across the south. A surface boundary remains draped across the region with the ridge axis south of the local area.
(Today through Friday) 500mb trough is currently situated across the SE portion of the country. The trough will remain in place through the short term period, with a cut off low forming in the NE GOMEX by early Friday. At the surface, high pressure will continue with a wedge building down from the NE through tomorrow.
408 AM CDT Thu Aug 22 2024 - Trending warmer with low precipitation chances (20-30%) Thursday and Thursday night into Friday morning.
The upper air pattern this morning was characterized by the subtropical high centered over far southeast New Mexico and noticeable troughiness over the Pacific Northwest.
601 AM CDT Thu Aug 22 2024 - Trending warmer with low precipitation chances (20-30%) Thursday and Thursday night into Friday morning.
Recent GOES-16 WV imagery and RAP 500-mb analysis showed two troughs of low pressure, one off the coast of the Pacific Northwest and another across New England. Sandwiched between these two features is a stubborn upper-level ridge of high pressure centered over the southern Plains, extending north-northeastward to the Hudson Bay. Southwesterly flow aloft on the western side of the ridge has continued to advect monsoonal moisture northward across the region. At the surface, low pressure was noted across Lake Winnipeg with a trough extending south across the northern Plains. Another ridge runner will make a pass across our region Friday evening bringing another chance of thunderstorms.
A low pressure trough will then bring cooler but still breezy conditions for the weekend with an increased chance for showers and possible thunderstorms. Weak high pressure aloft nudging the southerly flow aloft just west of the area will keep much of Southwest, Central, and North Central Montana dry today with temperatures similar to yesterday. A warm front will then move north over the area overnight, shifting breezy easterly winds this afternoon more southerly by Friday and warming temperatures 5 to 10 degrees over today. The low pressure trough will also move onshore later tonight into Friday, which will help shift the southerly flow back east over the forecast area and increase it.
Fog character was about as expected - that is, limited to the low spots including river valleys. - Warming up Persistent south to southwest low level flow will advect a warmer air mass into Lower Michigan into the weekend. Warming continues into the weekend and with 925 mb temps rising into the low 20 deg C range, that will translate to max temperatures in the 80's.
619 AM CDT Thu Aug 22 2024 (Today and tonight) Bottom line up front is even hotter temperatures today as thickness values climb a touch higher as an upper level ridge positions itself directly over the region.
550 AM CDT Thu Aug 22 2024 (Today through Friday Night) A large area of high pressure will wobble from the Ohio Valley to the mid-Atlantic states. Clockwise flow around the high will continue to usher in a mild east/northeast wind today, and this will result in below average temperatures. Looking aloft, troughing east of the Mississippi River will slowly exit toward the Atlantic Ocean. Ridging over the Plains will gradually build in our direction.
625 AM CDT Thu Aug 22 2024 (Today) A large area of high pressure continues to dominate a good portion of the Great Lake region and parts of the Ohio Valley. However, it will likely help to keep afternoon temperatures just tad cooler than the mixing of 925 mb temperatures (22 to 23 degrees Celsius) would suggest.
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: A slight suppression of the upper ridge is expected today with Canadian high pressure sinking into the northern plains.
647 AM CDT Thu Aug 22 2024 (Today through Friday) The upper level ridge has shifted to the east and is centered over west TX this morning. At the surface a stationary front remains draped along the eastern edge of the ridge extending from the Texas Panhandle to Galveston. Models have come in a little bit warmer and while high temperatures will be down from yesterday, they will still be 100 or higher in most places. The upper ridge will weaken slightly tonight and Friday and some minor height falls may take a few degrees off the high temperatures.
Strong upper ridging will remain in place across the area today, with dangerously hot temperatures persisting. Despite the strong ridge in place, cannot rule out this possibility as convective temperatures are reached during peak heating.
546 AM EDT Thu Aug 22 2024 High pressure along with cooler and drier air persists into the weekend.
454 AM MDT Thu Aug 22 2024 - Slightly cooler temperatures today, but still warm.
641 AM EDT Thu Aug 22 2024 The slow moving upper level storm system that has been circulating clouds and cooler conditions during the past couple days will give way to high pressure that will bring fair weather with day to day warming into the upcoming weekend. Upper level trough over northern New England will lift very slowly into the Canadian Maritimes by tonight. Areas west of the Finger Lakes will enjoy fair dry weather as expansive high pressure over the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley drifts into the region.
Ridging will be over the area today, bring dry weather to most locations along with warm temperatures, However, those clouds are the precursor to increasing moisture moving in from the south that will increase chances of late day showers and thunderstorms across southern Wyoming, spreading into western Wyoming this evening with some convection lingering through the nighttime hours. With the ridging over the area, wind will be lighter today, with fire weather concerns remaining below critical.
Another dry, mostly sunny day underway with upper ridging in control aloft and broad high pressure over the central and eastern U.
640 AM EDT Thu Aug 22 2024 High pressure in place across the region with below normal temperatures will gradually shift offshore into this weekend, yielding a return to near normal temperatures. Thursday night looks quite, clear, and cool once again with lows in the low to mid 50s (upper 40s for the Poconos). The upper low system will be departing well northeast of our area by Friday as quasi-zonal flow sets up in its wake locally.
1010 AM EDT Thu Aug 22 2024 A few lingering showers across the western Adirondacks and north of the Saratoga region this afternoon as our upper level low moves out of our region today.
615 AM EDT Thu Aug 22 2024 - Warming up - Mainly dry through the weekend - Warming up Persistent south to southwest low level flow will advect a warmer air mass into Lower Michigan into the weekend. Warming continues into the weekend and with 925 mb temps rising into the low 20 deg C range, that will translate to max temperatures in the 80's.
532 AM CDT Thu Aug 22 2024 - High pressure and mild weather will remain through today, with temperatures on the rise Friday and beyond.
335 AM MDT Thu Aug 22 2024 - Slightly cooler temperatures today, but still warm.
615 AM CDT Thu Aug 22 2024 (Today through Friday) A weak inverted trough will be in place today, with high pressure in the Mid-Atlantic. Friday should dry and sunny across the area as high pressure builds into the area.
952 AM EDT Thu Aug 22 2024 High pressure in place across the region with below average temperatures will gradually shift offshore into this weekend, yielding a return to near average temperatures. A closed low centered across Maine maintains cyclonic flow across our area, however the core of the cold air aloft is now more removed from our area. This will result in high temperatures being at least a few degrees warmer this afternoon compared to yesterday. The upper low system will be departing well northeast of our area by Friday as quasi-zonal flow sets up in its wake locally.
122 PM EDT Thu Aug 22 2024 A few lingering showers across the western Adirondacks and north of the Saratoga region this afternoon as our upper level low moves out of our region today.
Bowlan (Friday through Thursday) A few isolated showers could be around again tomorrow morning across portions of eastern Oklahoma on the periphery of the building ridge. Generally, any rain should be less in coverage than previous mornings as the mid level ridge continues to shift closer to the area and thus have left PoPs just below mentionable at this time. In response, a warming trend will commence tomorrow as highs get back into the low to mid 90s for most.
The forecast area will remain within northwest flow aloft this evening and overnight as the center of the upper-level ridge slowly moves northeast.