Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Today was 5-10 degrees cooler than yesterday behind last night's weak cold front. A stronger cold front over eastern Oregon late today will move across Idaho zones later tonight with increasing west/northwest winds and a 15 to 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Saturday will be about 15 degrees cooler than today along with significantly stronger west winds than today, especially in the Snake Basin and Camas Prairie. These changes are due to a deep upper low approaching from the Gulf of Alaska.
Mid level ridging has a firm grip over much of eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas however, which should steer any overnight storms north of the area, though a stray shower or storm could graze along the OK/KS border late tonight.
Weak upper-level troughing aloft into midweek and possibly beyond as well.
817 PM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024 A cold front moving through this afternoon will bring rain showers and strong to severe storms, with strong winds being the main threat in northeast PA and Sullivan County NY. High pressure builds into the region with summer-like weather this weekend. This bumped values up a few degrees in NY and lowered them around the Wyoming Valley where rain has cooled the area into the low to mid 60s. The initial trough continues south into NEPA. Behind this is drier stable air ahead of the cold front. The initial trough should slow. Late tonight into Saturday night will be dry and cooler. High pressure will build into the area Saturday night.
646 PM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024 A cold front moving through this afternoon will bring rain showers and strong to severe storms, with strong winds being the main threat in northeast PA and Sullivan County NY. High pressure builds into the region with summer-like weather this weekend. This bumped values up a few degrees in NY and lowered them around the Wyoming Valley where rain has cooled the area into the low to mid 60s. The initial trough continues south into NEPA. Behind this is drier stable air ahead of the cold front. The initial trough should slow. Late tonight into Saturday night will be dry and cooler. High pressure will build into the area Saturday night.
750 PM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024 High pressure entering the Ohio Valley will result in mostly sunny skies and increasing temperatures.
954 PM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024 High pressure entering the Ohio Valley will result in mostly sunny skies and increasing temperatures.
/20/ (This evening through Saturday Night) Strong subsidence persists across the region as surface and upper-level ridging build overhead.
320 AM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024 High pressure builds across the region for the weekend.
411 AM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024 High pressure builds into the region with summer-like weather this weekend. High pressure begins to build into the area, where Saturday will be the start of a warming trend. Temperatures over the weekend will be in the high-60s to low-70s Saturday, and increase to the mid- to high-70s Sunday, with some valley locations potentially hitting 80 degrees.
This afternoon, a slowly- moving weak upper short wave trough will extend from eastern SD to the TX panhandle.
- Heat indices will approach the low 100s tomorrow across portions of central and south central KS.
357 AM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024 High pressure and a northerly flow will provide plenty of sunshine and comfortable conditions today. A large ridge will build over the region Sunday and remain in place through the rest of the week. A prolonged and potential dangerous heat wave is anticipated under this ridge. ------------------------------------------------------------------- Heights will slowly rise today as the large developing ridge to our west pushes the New England trough out over the Atlantic. High pressure moving across the Great Lakes and will bring an additional push of drier air as well as keep our low-level flow out of the north. KEY MESSAGES: - Dry weather, noticeably warmer Sunday.
(Today through Sunday) A weak frontal boundary remains draped across central Florida this morning while a mid-level trough sits across the southeastern Gulf of Mexico.
1248 AM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024 High pressure and a northerly flow will provide plenty of sunshine and comfortable conditions today. A large ridge will build over the region Sunday and remain in place through the rest of the week. A prolonged and potential dangerous heat wave is anticipated under this ridge. Its possible that additional fog could develop, particularly in the river valleys, as cooler air overspreads the region and presses surface temperatures closer to the lower tds. Heights will slowly rise today as the large developing ridge to our west pushes the New England trough out over the Atlantic. High pressure moving across the Great Lakes and will bring an additional push of drier air as well as keep our low-level flow out of the north. KEY MESSAGES: - Dry weather, noticeably warmer Sunday.
The operational models continue to show an unusually strong upper high centered southeast of Lower Michigan. The operational Canadian and GFS remain in line with one another on the main features with the operational EC being an outlier with stronger upper ridging. So while there is some spatial temporal differences in position of the ridge and moisture advection, the pattern remains consistent.
Concerns remain regarding the ability of convection to overcome subsidence from an upper level ridge and limited low level moisture.
Saturday will start out sunny, but middle and high clouds will increase during the afternoon in the warm advection ahead of a warm front.
(Today through Sunday) The mid-level ridge across the southern U. S will begin to break down this afternoon as a trough moves into the Central Plains. Temperatures will continue to be in the low 90s along the coast to around 100 over the Brush Country.
(Today through Sunday Night) Mostly calm and dry conditions are expected through the period under high pressure. Humidity will make heat index feel slightly warmer with values in the mid 90s to near 103.
Then skies clear from north to south as high pressure builds across the region for the weekend.
1203 AM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024 (Tonight through Saturday night) A subsident mid level ridge extending across the Southern U. The low level flow will remain weak tonight and early Saturday, however the gradient tightens some by Saturday afternoon as a trough moves into the central plains.
High pressure, drier conditions, and slightly above normal temperatures are then expected through much of the upcoming week. Upper ridge continues to build over the region today into tonight as an upper trough slides eastward. Overnight lows remain mild, generally in the low 70s. Sunday and Sunday Night: Upper level ridging will be centered over the region on Sunday while at the surface a cold front will eventually stall out south of the area. An onshore flow and diurnal cloud cover should result in high temperatures cooler than Saturday. It appears that the deterministic NBM is on the low end of the ensemble spread, so raised forecast temperatures to show highs generally in the lower to mid 90s.
1214 AM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024 (Tonight through Saturday night) Looking at the latest GOES 16 regional water vapor imagery, we note the flattened Subtropical Ridge over the Baja of California extending eastward into South Central Texas. An expansive Cu field is noted on visible satellite imagery over central and south Texas this afternoon and that is expected to happen once again on Saturday despite high pressure aloft, as easterly to southeasterly surface flow off the Gulf of Mexico keeps low level moisture in play to form those clouds.
Warmer today as upper ridge increases across the Tennessee Valley. Mostly dry with limited precip chances across the higher elevations.
Despite the absence of strong ridging overhead, little in the way of forcing will be present to allow for convection, especially given a dearth of low-level moisture content. These factors will yield a seasonably hot weekend with highs in the mid 90s and lows in the low/mid 70s. By early this upcoming week, the large-scale pattern will feature the ridge to our east and a longwave trough to our west. Moisture advection will ramp up on the back side of the ridge, sending 70s dewpoints and 1. Models continue to depict a weakness in the ridge overhead through midweek.
224 AM MDT Sat Jun 15 2024 KEY MESSAGES: - Pattern change starts today as a cold front brings showers and thunderstorms with eastern zones seeing the greatest risk of a mixed severe hail/wind threat.
Today will be another hot day, with high temperatures rising to the low to mid 90s once again.
Muscha (This evening through Saturday night) Our active synoptic pattern continues as a trough moves across the central CONUS and the high pressure center at the H500 level transitions eastward. High temperatures today and tomorrow will range in the 90's; and with excellent moisture retention, humidity should generally be on the higher side through the weekend. Saturday, a new southwest oriented trough will impact the combined Panhandles but coverage may be more limited unless today's setup under performs.
pdf As high pressure develops to the north Today, a prevailing onshore flow will prevail along the east coast. Lows will range from the lower to mid 70s over the area Tonight.
Afternoon highs today have been topping out in the middle to upper 90's for most locations, with Saturday looking even warmer as highs soar into the upper 90's to near 100 degrees. Overnight lows will be warm in the lower to middle 70's for most locations tonight.
On Saturday, the low pressure system moves inland and will push a cold front across the Northern Rockies.
Despite the absence of strong ridging overhead, little in the way of forcing will be present to allow for convection, especially given a dearth of low-level moisture content. These factors will yield a seasonably hot weekend with highs in the mid 90s and lows in the low/mid 70s.
Because of this, overnight lows will drop into the low 70s across the area. A H5 590 dm ridge will be firmly entrenched over the southeastern CONUS through the weekend. Under the high pressure, the dry airmass will help afternoon highs peak into the 96 - 101 degree range areawide with heat indices around 105 degrees. Heat indices will remain in the low 100s across central MS, so will continue to message a limited heat threat for Sunday as well.
The next couple days will feature quiet weather beneath high pressure. A weak trough will be approaching the North Country, but low level high pressure will be building northward at the same time. The result will be much warmer overnight temperatures with lows in the upper 50s to around 60 degrees for most spots.
Atmospheric state is currently characterized by a longer wavelength ridge across the north-central tier of CONUS, flanked by a Pacific low descending along the coast of British Columbia and broad upper low over Hudson Bay that has begun to eject east.
A weak cold front will drop into the region early this weekend before high pressure builds in from the north. Saturday: The mid-level trough offshore will move away as time progresses. Meanwhile, ridging and High pressure will gradually build over the Southeast. At the surface, a weak cold front will be located just to our north at daybreak. Highs will be in the mid to upper 90s for most areas, except cooler at the beaches. Heat indices will also be in the lower 100s. Overnight lows will be in the lower to mid 70s. It's expected to shift south and dissipate in the afternoon as High pressure to our north and northeast tries to build into our area. Highs will again reach into the low to mid 90s away from the immediate coast.
125 AM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024 High pressure entering the Ohio Valley will result in mostly sunny skies and increasing temperatures.
Temperatures early this afternoon are in the lower to mid 90s, with some scattered stratus clouds streaming across the region. Morning lows will be in the lower to mid 70s, with highs in the mid to upper 90s on Saturday afternoon.
(Today) Unseasonably hot/dry conditions will continue across the mid TN Valley today, as a strong upper ridge pattern out of the Plains states builds eastward into the SE region. Otherwise, high pressure layered across the mid/NE Atlantic states will help usher warmer air into the area out of the east. This combined with the approach of the upper ridge will translate into afternoon highs once again in the lower/mid 90s.
Similar to yesterday, isolated to scattered thunderstorms will form well off to our west across the southern High Plains and the higher terrain of Southwest Texas during the afternoon and evening hours. Overnight lows will continue on their mild trend in the low to mid 70s.
A lake-enhanced cold front continues to push through northeastern Illinois and will cause temperatures to fall from the mid to upper 80s to the mid to upper 70s. Tomorrow looks similar to today with highs in the low to mid 80s. Otherwise, it looks like another relatively quiet, though warmer, night with overnight lows in the mid 60s.
This warm front placement will play a role in both afternoon temperatures and PM severe weather chances. Along and north of the warm front, cloud cover and more southeasterly winds will keep temperatures slightly cooler, with highs in the upper 80s to near 90.
Upper ridging should keep conditions fairly quiet, however, a disturbance beneath this ridge, along with increased moisture advection around the high, will support isolated showers and storms this afternoon and evening, especially east of I-55 where moisture is greatest.
A low pressure system centered over Vancouver Island weakens as it spreads east into the PacNW and northern Great Basin. Winds are forecast to decrease tonight but we could see elevated, gusty winds continue in the higher terrain and in the western parts of San Bernardino County. Today will be the hottest day of the weekend with high temperatures expected to be 6-10 degrees above normal then about 5 degrees cooler on Sunday.
319 AM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024 High pressure builds into the region with summer-like weather this weekend. High pressure begins to build into the area, where Saturday will be the start of a warming trend. Temperatures over the weekend will be in the high-60s to low-70s Saturday, and increase to the mid- to high-70s Sunday, with some valley locations potentially hitting 80 degrees. 210 PM Update: High pressure will keep conditions dry and mostly sunny on Sunday. With the building ridge still located west of the region, one last day with temperatures near-normal is expected before the heat builds in for the remainder of the week. Highs are expected to be in the lower 70s to near 80.
Pattern change starts to take place on Sunday as high pressure surface and aloft begins to build north of the region.
(Today through Sunday) A ridge in place over Central Alabama will result in highs in the mid to upper 90s across the area today. As the ridge slides eastward Sunday, southeasterly flow will hold highs mainly in the mid 90s.
A weak trough will be approaching the North Country, but low level high pressure will be building northward at the same time. The result will be much warmer overnight temperatures with lows in the upper 50s to around 60 degrees for most spots.
707 AM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024 (Today through Sunday) A weak frontal boundary remains draped across central Florida this morning while a mid-level trough sits across the southeastern Gulf of Mexico.
813 AM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024 A large ridge will build over the region Sunday and remain in place through the rest of the week. A prolonged and potential dangerous heat wave is anticipated under this ridge. Previous Discussion: Heights will slowly rise today as the large developing ridge to our west pushes the New England trough out over the Atlantic. High pressure moving across the Great Lakes and will bring an additional push of drier air as well as keep our low-level flow out of the north. KEY MESSAGES: - Dry weather, noticeably warmer Sunday.
This is part of a broad low pressure system that will be pushing through the Pacific Northwest this weekend. The main story regarding this low is that it will lead to generally colder temperatures and expected freezing conditions for Saturday night into Sunday morning for Father's Day.
634 AM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024 High pressure builds into the region with summer-like weather this weekend. High pressure begins to build into the area, where Saturday will be the start of a warming trend. Temperatures over the weekend will be in the high-60s to low-70s Saturday, and increase to the mid- to high-70s Sunday, with some valley locations potentially hitting 80 degrees.
(Rest of Today) A very hot day is forecast across the Tennessee Valley as we remain under the influence of strong area of high pressure.
615 AM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024 (Today through Sunday) A ridge in place over Central Alabama will result in highs in the mid to upper 90s across the area today. As the ridge slides eastward Sunday, southeasterly flow will hold highs mainly in the mid 90s.
618 AM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024 (Today) Unseasonably hot/dry conditions will continue across the mid TN Valley today, as a strong upper ridge pattern out of the Plains states builds eastward into the SE region. Otherwise, high pressure layered across the mid/NE Atlantic states will help usher warmer air into the area out of the east. This combined with the approach of the upper ridge will translate into afternoon highs once again in the lower/mid 90s.
High pressure will be centered over the eastern Great Lakes today. Dry air circulating around this high will also maintain clear skies other than some late day cirrus. Atmospheric state is currently characterized by a longer wavelength ridge across the north-central tier of CONUS, flanked by a Pacific low descending along the coast of British Columbia and broad upper low over Hudson Bay that has begun to eject east.
618 AM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024 (Today through Sunday) The mid-level ridge continues to stay in place over Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley, as such above normal temperatures with very low chances in rain are expected to last through the short term forecast period. As for the temperatures, the highs for today and tomorrow are expected to be in the range of upper 90s for most of Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley, while parts of Starr, Zapata, and Jim Hogg could reach into the triple digits. The low temperatures for tonight are expected to be mostly in the 70s with a few places in the Lower Rio Grande Valley reaching into the low 80s.
Our 88D's VAD wind profiler is showing light SE flow 1-4kft and then Easterly above up to near H500, then light NW flow continues as the upper ridge builds over the MS River today and continues eastward. Ridge motion E has picked up a bit with a brisk short wave now over the plains lifting warm air into the Great Lakes states. We will be trending a little warmer in most cases in the short term. Some afternoon heat index calculations may see some triple digit values, but will be keeping on the low end with 101-104 and no need to mention in the zones. Overnight, more stars for the fireworks display this evening and slightly warmer lows as our dew points tick upwards, as the upper ridge parks over the SE U.
The wind profile shows veering from east to southeast near 10 knots in the lowest levels to south to southwest near 10 knots 900 mb and above. This band of clouds when looped looks to be starting to slowly shift to the northwest and into the Gulf as ridging to the southeast over Hispaniola and eastern Cuba starts to nudge its way northwestward. Due to the cloud cover and rainfall, temperatures along the Island Chain have been hovering near 80 degrees with a few locations in the lower 80s. Dew points are in the lower to mid 70s. From synopsis, light to gentle breezes this afternoon will gradually increase over the next couple of days due to high pressure building in from the north and falling pressures near the Yucatan Peninsula and Bay of Campeche.
518 AM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024 A cold front will cross the Mid Atlantic region and Carolinas today, followed by high pressure through Sunday. A cold front was crossing the area from north to south and will reach the Virginia/North Carolina border around 12Z/8AM then continue south through the Carolinas today. The air mass is stable behind the front and the chance for any showers and thunderstorms will be confined to the higher elevations of the southern Blue Ridge this afternoon and evening.
Farther north in the forecast area, it won't be as bad since some of the cooler drier air has more success filling into those areas, with The Tri-cities area only having Heat Index readings in the upper 80s. Warmer today as upper ridge increases across the Tennessee Valley. Mostly dry with limited precip chances across the higher elevations.
230 AM PDT Sat Jun 15 2024 High pressure aloft will bring another hot day to the valleys and deserts today.
609 AM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024 (Today through Sunday Night) Mostly calm and dry conditions are expected through the period under high pressure. Humidity will make heat index feel slightly warmer with values in the mid 90s to near 103.
Afternoon breezes today will be followed by another increase in winds late Sunday and Sunday night due to a secondary cold front passage, with a few showers possible near the Oregon border.
622 AM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024 (Today through Sunday) The mid-level ridge across the southern U. S will begin to break down this afternoon as a trough moves into the Central Plains. Temperatures will continue to be in the low 90s along the coast to around 100 over the Brush Country.
957 AM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024 A weak trough axis lingers across the area with weak ridging trying to build in across the state. Southerly flow today will become easterly for Sunday as stronger ridging builds into the area from the NE.
These windy conditions will continue throughout the afternoon and into the early evening as a potent U/L trough pushes into the Pacific NW. Cooler temperatures are expected tomorrow as the aforementioned trough continues to push further south with H5 heights continuing to decrease.
209 PM MDT Sat Jun 15 2024 KEY MESSAGES: - Pattern change starts today as a cold front brings showers and thunderstorms with eastern zones seeing the greatest risk of a mixed severe hail/wind threat.
140 PM PDT Sat Jun 15 2024 A cooling trend will occur after today's warm temperatures across the region, as a trough to the north brings greater influence. As the trough pushes into our area, we can expected near to slightly below average temperatures and greater cloud coverage west of the mountains. A ridge of high pressure will come back to the region by the end of the week, providing warmer weather. WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO High pressure over the southwestern U.
1247 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024 (Today through Sunday) The mid-level ridge across the southern U. S will begin to break down this afternoon as a trough moves into the Central Plains. Temperatures will continue to be in the low 90s along the coast to around 100 over the Brush Country.
An upper level low will continue to drop south into the region tonight and Sunday. The trajectory of this low is dry so no precipitation is expected with this system. The highest chance for impactful winds is in and around Barstow, CA into the Yucca Valley as probabilities for wind gusts over 40 MPH jump to around 80% Sunday late afternoon into the evening. High temperatures SUnday afternoon will remain slightly above normal but be about 5 degrees cooler than today's high temperatures.
(Tonight) Very hot conditions prevailing across the Tennessee Valley, with temperatures in the low to mid 90s this afternoon -- with heat index values between 94-102 degrees at this hour. The afternoon Cu field will quickly diminish resulting in clear conditions once again with very warm low temperatures in the low to mid 70s -- providing very limited relief to the heat overnight.
/21 Upper level ridging will continue to extend across the region this afternoon. High temperatures are on track to range between 95-99 degrees over interior areas along and north of the I-10 corridor and from around 90 degrees to the lower 90s along the coast.