Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Winds will weaken in the evening while a cold front approaches from the north. Won't be able to rule out some freezing temperatures across the northern combined Panhandles Saturday night.
637 PM CDT Fri Mar 28 2025 (Tonight through Saturday night) Dry conditions return this evening as the mid-to-upper level trough over Deep South Texas continues to exit off to the east with zonal flow aloft, drawing in much drier air behind it through Saturday night.
750 PM EDT Fri Mar 28 2025 - Breezy and warmer into tonight and Saturday.
1233 AM CDT Sat Mar 29 2025 (Tonight through Saturday night) Dry conditions return this evening as the mid-to-upper level trough over Deep South Texas continues to exit off to the east with zonal flow aloft, drawing in much drier air behind it through Saturday night.
Current Water Vapor depicts southwest flow aloft, as upper trough sits over the PAC NW down into CA. Snowfall uncertainty remains a concern, given previous warm surface temperatures and air temperatures near freezing for this event. Warmer ground/road temps may help to limit any impacts.
The lowest confidence and highest uncertainty with this storm revolves around snow amounts across the western SD plains into south-central SD.
Temperatures will be warm today and Sunday, with highs in the low 80s along the coast to low 90s across the west under mostly clear to partly cloudy skies.
Showers may enhance those gusts up to speeds of 50 mph especially in the higher terrain. As this trough lifts from southwest to northeast this evening through Saturday morning, the northern and central Colorado mountains appear favored for the better snowfall accumulations. PWAT anomalies peak at 200+ percent of normal this evening through tomorrow morning with this wave but the better QPF amounts appear to favor the higher elevations. Sunday morning, we will see lingering showers in the latter half of a moderate amplitude trough. By this time, precipitation chances will be mostly confined to the higher elevations though, leaving valleys with little impacts heading into the daytime hours aside from the US-40 corridor where PoP's remain over 50%. However, the now- depleted moisture content leaves the environment mostly unsustainable for anything more than a few isolated showers along ridges.
An unsettled and showery pattern will dominate the weekend as an upper-level trough moves across the Northern Rockies. By around April 6th, about 90% of ensemble models indicate the return of high-pressure ridging, bringing warmer and drier weather to the region. Otherwise, an unsettled and showery pattern will take hold this weekend as an upper-level trough moves across the Northern Rockies.
Large hail and damaging winds are the main hazards, with the highest chances across east central Kansas.
235 AM EDT Sat Mar 29 2025 Dry through most of the weekend with high pressure residing offshore.
Low pressure off the British Columbia coast will move northward allowing a trough to move onshore tonight. This trough will move across the region on Saturday before departing to the east later Saturday. A ridge will be in place for Saturday and Saturday night. There will be some light nuisance, snow amounts in the mountains but little accumulation is expected outside of the highest elevations. less than an inch with higher amounts possible at the highest elevations.
1217 AM CDT Sat Mar 29 2025 - Slight risk (Level 2 of 5) for a few severe thunderstorms Saturday evening as a cold front moves across the area.
Upper trough axis remains to our west this evening, and will continue its slow eastward progression overnight. Have seen showers and isolated thunderstorms this evening, and expect the showers to continue through the night (and maybe a rumble of thunder) out ahead of the trough. Still looking at an overnight/early morning cold frontal passage which could kick up wind across SE Oregon and through the Snake Plain bringing gusts to 25 mph.
147 AM EDT Sat Mar 29 2025 - Breezy and warmer into tonight and Saturday.
Tonight A cold front will move slowly southward toward the Interstate 90 corridor. The evaporative cooling near the surface will result in freezing rain. The highest probabilities continue to be near and north of Wisconsin 29.
An U/L disturbance currently over the Lower Mississippi Valley will push across the southeast U. The potential exists for locally heavy rain Sunday afternoon with the highest likelihood over the interior due to increasing westerly flow which will push the axis of strongest L/L convergence inland.
- Warmer than normal temperatures and breezy winds today.
Current temps readings in the lower 70s for SE GA and NE FL, with coastal sites sitting in the upper 60s. Lows temps for are expected to drop to the upper 50s for most locations, with coastal sites and some locations in the Suwannee Valley region dropping the lower 60s. pdf High pressure ridging continues over the area with central high pressure shifting further out into the Atlantic off the Carolina coast. Daytime highs will get into the low 80s with coastal temperatures getting into the upper 70s. overnight lows will cool into the upper 50s to low 60s over much of the area, staying slightly warmer along the coast. Above seasonable temperatures continue with highs ranging from the upper 70s along the coast to the low/mid 80s inland.
1238 AM CDT Sat Mar 29 2025 A mid-level trough will continue to move across the southern plains as it continues its track eastward. Overnight lows are expected to be in the lower 60s under cloudy skies. The trough will continue to progress through the area, bringing numerous showers and isolated t-storm chances on Saturday.
330 AM CDT Sat Mar 29 2025 - Near critical Fire Weather Risk along Oklahoma state line This Afternoon - A cold front Today will lead to 20% to 40% chance of showers after 6 PM Westerly surface winds will develop as a cold front gets dragged east across the area by a transient low pressure. Temperatures in the low 30s are likely in the west overnight but colder members of the NBM output show upper 20s as well between the Ark and Smoky Hill rives west of HWY 283.
140 AM EDT Sat Mar 29 2025 High pressure will continue over the region through Sunday.
Arrival of the high clouds significantly dropped the wind gusts, though some gusts near 40-45 mph continued further north toward Peoria/Bloomington a bit longer. This would allow plenty of instability to develop across central and eastern Illinois, which will be in the warm sector and primed for when the cold front moves into the area Sun afternoon.
/20/ (06Z TAFS) Areas of SHRA continue across Lower Toledo Bend Country into much of N LA/Srn AR, along and ahead of an upper trough that will continue to drift E over the area through midday Saturday.
- Cooler air pushes south Sunday with lingering spotty showers, snow may mix in north. Into Saturday morning the low across the central plains will lift into the midwest, allowing for better lift and moisture transport into the area. By evening the associated surface cold front pushes across Iowa and a line of thunderstorms is expected to develop. The upcoming week starts off cool with behind the weekend system but temperatures look to recover back into the low 60s towards the middle of the week. MVFR conditions are expected to becoming more prevalent through the morning hours as a cold front slowly moves NW-SE into the state.
(Today through Sunday) H3 upper trough moving across the area very slowly this morning.
- Snow continues through the morning, some heavy in the higher terrain. The first of these systems arrived overnight, and brought heavy snow to the higher elevations, particularly in and around the Little Belt and Snowy Mountains.
It's difficult to pinpoint timing with any precision, but the onset of showers across the Lower Keys looks like it will be sometime during the late morning or early afternoon.
Onset of large-scale isentropic lift through the lower troposphere occurred overnight, with an associated increase in altocumulus, altostratus, and nimbostratus cloud decks and development of stratiform rain patches and bands this morning. Some of these have already moved, or are moving, through the lower Keys. Cells within this corridor could reach portions of the lower Keys, including Naval Air Station Key West, by 1200-1300 LT, producing heavier rainfall, lower cloud ceilings, and reduced horizontal surface visibility. Deteriorating weather conditions may occur later this afternoon over portions of the middle and upper Keys as large-scale forcing for ascent peaks from both lower-level isentropic lift and some enhancement from an approaching upper-level trough over the Gulf.
455 AM CDT Sat Mar 29 2025 - Near critical Fire Weather Risk along Oklahoma state line This Afternoon - A cold front Today will lead to 20% to 40% chance of showers after 6 PM Westerly surface winds will develop as a cold front gets dragged east across the area by a transient low pressure. Temperatures in the low 30s are likely in the west overnight but colder members of the NBM output show upper 20s as well between the Ark and Smoky Hill rives west of HWY 283.
430 AM MDT Sat Mar 29 2025 - Snow continues through the morning, some heavy in the higher terrain. The first of these systems arrived overnight, and brought heavy snow to the higher elevations, particularly in and around the Little Belt and Snowy Mountains.
After a warm and humid night tonight with lows in the upper 60s and lower 70s, high temperatures tomorrow will warm back into the 80s for most of the area and the lower 90s in the Rio Grande Plains.
300 PM EDT Sat Mar 29 2025 Dry through most of the weekend with high pressure residing offshore.
Tomorrow, fair weather conditions from weak ridging over the silver state warming highs back into the 50s to 60s across the region with breezy westerly winds in the afternoon at 15-20 mph.
Storm-scale organization focused on the Straits of Florida and the lower Keys, especially between Key West and Big Coppitt Key, where 2-3 inches of rain fell in a few hours.
As this low approaches, the 925 mb and 850 mb moisture transport will increase along and north of 850 mb front which extends from Charles City, IA to Wausau, WI line. Meanwhile, at the surface, dry, northeast winds at the surface will provide enough evaporative cooling for freezing rain.
An area of rain has been slow to move out of the CWA this afternoon ahead of a weak mid-level trough moving through the Mid Misssissippi River Valley. This trough will progess eastward this late afternoon allowing the rain to exit the area.
(This evening through Sunday Night) The upper-level disturbance responsible for the recent rain continues to push east into the Lower Mississippi Valley. By late Sunday afternoon, models continue to suggest a pre- frontal trough or dryline like feature will move into the area ahead of the front, resulting in the development of discrete storms.
The first of these systems continues to bring moderate to heavy snow across scentral SD, with some areas of freezing rain still ongoing across portions of Mellette, Todd, and Tripp Counties.
1104 AM CDT Sat Mar 29 2025 - Near critical Fire Weather Risk along Oklahoma state line This Afternoon - A cold front Today will lead to 20% to 40% chance of showers after 6 PM Westerly surface winds will develop as a cold front gets dragged east across the area by a transient low pressure. Temperatures in the low 30s are likely in the west overnight but colder members of the NBM output show upper 20s as well between the Ark and Smoky Hill rives west of HWY 283.
255 PM EDT Sat Mar 29 2025 High pressure near Bermuda will extend across the region through the weekend.
-Cooler and breezy Sunday, with lingering morning rain south and east while northern Iowa receives light rain/snow into the afternoon.
Snow levels remain near 4000 feet with light snow accumulations in the higher elevations.
Temperature anomalies will be unseasonably warm through the short term period with daytime highs on Sunday climbing into the low to mid 90s across much of Deep South Texas; 80s near the coast due to some onshore flow influences. It will also be humid as well with dewpoints (Tds) in the low to mid 70s. Nights will be warm and humid with overnight lows in the upper 60s over the Northern Ranchlands to the lower 70s along the Rio Grande Valley.
A welcome lull in convective activity has swept over the Florida Keys this evening after a deluge of training showers and thunderstorms streaked across the Lower and Middle Keys. Temperatures are currently in the mid to upper 70s with moist dewpoints in the lower 70s making for a somewhat sticky and windy night. These showers are racing north towards the Lower and Middle Keys but are notably not as strong as they were an hour or so ago.
720 PM CDT Sat Mar 29 2025 (This evening through Sunday Night) The upper-level disturbance responsible for the recent rain continues to push east into the Lower Mississippi Valley. By late Sunday afternoon, models continue to suggest a pre- frontal trough or dryline like feature will move into the area ahead of the front, resulting in the development of discrete storms.
More convection is expected Sunday afternoon, with the highest chances over the interior and across southwest Florida, but all terminals will have the chance of seeing showers or storms during the afternoon and evening hours.
534 PM EDT Sat Mar 29 2025 Dry through most of the weekend with high pressure residing offshore.
915 PM EDT Sat Mar 29 2025 High pressure near Bermuda will extend across the region through the weekend.
745 PM EDT Sat Mar 29 2025 High pressure near Bermuda will extend across the region through the weekend.
An area of rain has been slow to move out of the CWA this afternoon ahead of a weak mid-level trough moving through the Mid Mississippi River Valley. This trough will progress eastward this late afternoon allowing the rain to exit the area.
905 PM EDT Sat Mar 29 2025 Dry through most of the weekend with high pressure residing offshore.
As this is ongoing, increasing warm and moist southerly advection will led to the warm frontal boundary near I96 surging into Central Lower Michigan. MUCAPE values are forecast to climb into the 1000-2500 J/kg range by mid afternoon, with the higher end of that range dependent on impacts of earlier precipitation and whether breaks in cloud cover occur. A slightly lower but still notable threat is large hail given sufficient mid-level lapse rates, the potential for rotating storms, and low freezing levels. Particular attention is needed as to the northward extent of instability today as if sufficient surface-based instability can reach the warm frontal boundary, locally backed winds could enhance SRH there.
This low will translate east as a trough deepens across the western CONUS this week.
Large low pressure system will push to our south tonight.
A weak, low pressure trough will continue to make its way through the Intermountain West this evening with precipitation confined to Utah and Colorado. Confidence continues to increase in an unsettled pattern for much of this upcoming week with cooler temperatures and chances for scattered showers all on the table.
There is a chance of light rain Monday as the low-level moisture increases.
- A cold front pushes through during the day on Monday, ending the heavy rains and severe storm threat.
A trough will move through the region today, bringing more gusty winds to the region. A few sprinkles are possible towards the AZ/Utah border but this trough is very moisture starved and even sprinkles will be limited. As the trough moves through we should see the clouds clearing out from west to east, with some areas finally becoming mostly sunny by this afternoon. While we should see brief ridging across the region on Monday, the gradient really starts to tighten in advance of the next trough. Expect some of the higher gusts will be in areas that are just north and east of the higher terrain.
- Much cooler temperatures expected for tomorrow and Monday.
A cold front will approach our area from the north this afternoon and track through the region through later tonight.
The cold front that is moving into the area will provide a lot of sfc support in the form of forcing to storms. The front stalls along or near the coast Monday as the H7 ridge moves over it.
Updated at 205 AM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025 - Thunderstorms may redevelop along cold front today w/ much cooler temps behind the front.
237 AM EDT Sun Mar 30 2025 High pressure was centered off the east coast. Southwesterly winds on the back side of the high were bringing moisture into the area in the form of cloud cover and some light showers, in addition to warmer than normal temperatures. Moisture will increase further on Monday, as a cold front sweeps across the forecast area from the west.
- Ridging returns around April 6th, warmer and drier for several days.
Weak high pressure will provide drier and mild conditions today for most areas. Another disturbance arrives tonight with additional chances for showers and a return to cooler conditions through the middle of the week. Drier and warmer conditions then return as high pressure rebuilds into Western Washington toward the end of the week.
639 AM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025 Updated at 633 AM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025 - Thunderstorms may redevelop along cold front today w/ much cooler temps behind the front.
706 AM EDT Sun Mar 30 2025 High pressure was centered off the east coast. Southwesterly winds on the back side of the high were bringing moisture into the area in the form of cloud cover and some light showers, in addition to warmer than normal temperatures. Moisture will increase further on Monday, as a cold front sweeps across the forecast area from the west.
509 AM EDT Sun Mar 30 2025 High pressure was centered off the east coast. Southwesterly winds on the back side of the high were bringing moisture into the area in the form of cloud cover and some light showers, in addition to warmer than normal temperatures. Moisture will increase further on Monday, as a cold front sweeps across the forecast area from the west.
Deeper trough will move into the western CONUS Monday and support increasing return flow over the region. Some freezing rain or snow will also be possible across NW SD a well, hinging on how the thermal fields set up.
The front returns quickly northward as a warm front through midweek ahead of another develop trough across the western states. A developing upper level ridge across the western Atlantic and Florida will keep conditions warm and dry through much of the week.
An approaching cold front will lead do additional showers with possibly severe thunderstorms are expected late Monday into Monday night. Lows tonight will be in the middle 60s or so with highs in the lower 80s Monday.
Rain and thunderstorm activity will be present across all terminals throughout the duration of the day as a cold front tracks from northwest to southeast across the state. CIGS across the southeast sites will remain in MVFR to IFR flight category for the majority of the forecast period as a cloud deck associated with the cold front moves across the state. A wind shift will occur throughout the day from winds that are predominately out of the south to winds that are predominately out of the north- northwest behind the cold front.
An upper-level composite analysis this afternoon reveals short- wave ridge from the Caribbean extending NNE across the western North Atlantic. This supports a lower tropospheric subtropical anticyclone centered over the western North Atlantic. The Florida Keys lie along the southwestern flank of the subtropical anticyclone within moist, unstable SSE flow. Currently, air temperatures in most Keys island communities are in the lower 80s, with dewpoint temperatures in the mid 70s.
1229 PM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025 Updated at 1228 PM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025 - Thunderstorms with severe potential may redevelop along cold front today w/ much cooler temps behind the front.
1058 AM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025 Updated at 205 AM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025 - Thunderstorms may redevelop along cold front today w/ much cooler temps behind the front.
Southerly flow continues to pool moisture over the area ahead of a dry line and cold front. The HREF indicates the highest probabilities (50-70%) for dense fog remain in the coastal plains. A cold front will move in from the north tomorrow morning and continue south through the day. Highs tomorrow are a bit tricky due to the frontal passage but should be in the upper 70s to mid 80s east with much warmer temperatures in the west in the 90s to around 100 degrees due to drier air.
We can't rule out the possibility of a few sprinkles hitting the ground in far northern Arizona, but that will be the main moisture impact from the weak passing trough this afternoon. A trough will move through the region today, bringing more gusty winds to the region. A few sprinkles are possible towards the AZ/Utah border but this trough is very moisture starved and even sprinkles will be limited. As the trough moves through we should see the clouds clearing out from west to east, with some areas finally becoming mostly sunny by this afternoon. While we should see brief ridging across the region on Monday, the gradient really starts to tighten in advance of the next trough. Expect some of the higher gusts will be in areas that are just north and east of the higher terrain.
Of note in Keys Weather history, in 2003, what would have been the warmest March ever was disrupted by a strong cold front on the evening of the 30th, which brought behind it high and low temperatures the next day (the 31st) of only 65F and 59F, respectively.
As we move into the late afternoon and early evening hours, models continue to suggest a pre-frontal trough or dryline like feature will move into the area ahead of the aforementioned frontal boundary.
Patchy dense fog was reported in the Lower Treasure Valley, Upper Weiser Basin, and Long Valley (McCall, this morning. Light precipitation along a warm front moves through SE Oregon later this afternoon and SW Idaho this evening.
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Another cool/raw day across the area as Canadian high pressure sends plenty of cold air on E or NE winds this afternoon. SW flow ahead of the low will send in some milder Pacific air into the region, however some clearing tonight will allow temps to drop into the teens over the NE to the 20s SW. After a cold start Monday, temps should recover to near normal levels with highs in the 40s NE to the low 50s SW.
We've seen some decent showers and storms this afternoon and evening with the highest coverage over the northeastern gulf, Nature Coast and then inland areas this evening. As high pressure ridges over Florida and into the gulf, light southerly winds around 5-10 knots and seas 2 feet or less will persist through the night and on Monday. High pressure builds back in behind this front with pleasant weather expected through the remainder of the week.
840 PM EDT Sun Mar 30 2025 A cold front will approach the region on Monday and move across the area Monday night.
Updated at 947 PM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025 - Thunderstorms with severe potential may redevelop along cold front today w/ much cooler temps behind the front.
20z subjective surface analysis indicates a prefontal trough from Harrison, to just south of Fort Smith.
- Severe weather expected late this afternoon and evening The warm front has surged north of I-96 this afternoon and now stretches from just north of Muskegon across Northern Kent County to just north of St. Hail remains a threat, but we feel wind continues to be the highest threat. One being embedded QLCS type tornadoes and the other being storms interacting with the warm front which currently is just north of I-96.
Mild conditions are observed along the Keys with temperatures in the upper 70s and moist dewpoints in the lower 70s.
Daytime high temperatures on Monday are progged to be slightly warmer than today with values in the upper 80s near the coast to the low to mid 90s further inland.
619 PM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025 Updated at 616 PM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025 - Thunderstorms with severe potential may redevelop along cold front today w/ much cooler temps behind the front.