Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A warm front along the Mississippi River will lift north this morning. 925 mb temps in the upper 20s C should bring highs back into the low 90s. It should be a degree or two warmer than yesterday with better mixing, slightly warmer temps aloft, and lower dew points. 25 inches, very high freezing levels near 15kft, and MBE velocities of only 5 to 10 kts will allow storms to be rather efficient rain producers. A low pressure center will ride northeast along the slow moving front Saturday.
1239 AM EDT Fri Jul 4 2025 - Hot and humid this holiday weekend with highs mainly in the lower 90s - Heat indices mid 90s to near 100 degrees this weekend.
This activity is occurring in association with a weak upper level trough stretching from north to south over the Big Country into Central Texas. As this trough continues slowly eastward today, very high tropospheric moisture with PWATS up to 2. However, given the high PWATs some heavy rain and localized flooding are possible.
- Isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible this weekend, with temperatures trending warmer. A few thunderstorms are possible and the highest chance of flash flooding due to high rainfall rates with any thunderstorms.
112 AM EDT Fri Jul 4 2025 High pressure will build across the region with dry weather expected for the upcoming Holiday weekend. Key Messages: 1) A quiet/seasonably warm Independence Day Looking at high pressure surface and aloft to keep us dry with temperatures running slightly above normal. Tonight, lows will be in the lower to mid 60s under mainly clear skies. Temperatures will continue to be on the warmer side with regional highs in the 80s, except at higher elevations.
(This evening through Friday night) A very dirty ridge over the Central to Southern Great Plains to Lower Mississippi River Valley will be brining some perturbations over the FA today. Tomorrow, the aforementioned trough swings north clipping the northern combined Panhandles. PoPs drop off a bit for everywhere except the northern Panhandles under this trough. Otherwise tomorrow should be a bit drier for most, but also slightly warmer.
- Cooler temperatures continuing Friday and Saturday with highs only in the 70s and 80s.
101 AM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025 (Tonight through Saturday night) High pressure across the Gulf continues to build into the weekend, with drier air keeping most Independence Day celebrations rain- free.
343 AM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025 - Seasonably Warm, Increasing Humidity - Isolated Storms Friday Afternoon - Scattered Storm Activity Saturday, Marginal Risk for Strong to Severe Storms Amplified H5 ridge axis has entered the eastern Plains early this morning and will continue to propagate eastward through the remainder of the afternoon. That could be a tad high for the actual dewpoint range, if boundary layer mixing is stronger, that could result in dewpoints topping out more around the lower to mid 60s. Saturday, H5 ridge axis completely slides eastward, with a stronger vort maxima propagating across the Central Plains and associated weak surface wave.
232 AM EDT Fri Jul 4 2025 High pressure over the eastern part of the nation gives our region dry weather for Independence Day today into Saturday.
118 AM EDT Fri Jul 4 2025 Isolated showers and thunderstorms will taper off early this evening in the wake of a cold frontal passage.
A broad ridge aloft is over the central CONUS with its axis overhead, keeping quiet conditions in the area today.
1114 PM EDT Thu Jul 3 2025 A cold front passes through the area this evening. High pressure builds in behind the front tonight through Friday night.
357 AM EDT Fri Jul 4 2025 High pressure will build across the area this weekend, while low pressure develops off the southeast coast.
103 AM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025 (Tonight through Saturday night) High pressure across the Gulf continues to build into the weekend, with drier air keeping most Independence Day celebrations rain- free.
Cooler and less humid airmass follows for the weekend.
* Trending warmer and more humid but rain-free this weekend. Isolated and showers and storms have moved out of Pennsylvania this evening with a cold front now clear of the area. Will continue to deviate to the low side from the NBM dewpoints for Fri and Sat afternoons, with Friday being the largest diff in Td. High pressure building SE over the Commonwealth will provide dry conditions for both days.
105 AM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025 (Tonight through Saturday night) High pressure across the Gulf continues to build into the weekend, with drier air keeping most Independence Day celebrations rain- free.
221 AM EDT Fri Jul 4 2025 (06Z TAFS) Periods of showers and storms will continue through the period as area of low pressure gradually moves away. Ample moisture remains in place, but pockets of slightly drier air wraps around the low. With ample moisture and weak instability with the trough axis in the vicinity, showers and thunderstorms have continued to form across the region.
121 AM EDT Fri Jul 4 2025 Expansive high pressure will settle directly across our area today. The high will then slide off the mid-Atlantic coastline through the weekend.
1237 AM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025 - The Fourth of July holiday will be hot and humid with temperatures in the low to mid 90s and heat indices between 95 and 100. Temperatures continue their rise this afternoon as the upper ridge builds to the west of our area. Clear skies with morning temperatures in the low 70s start this weekend.
236 AM MDT Fri Jul 4 2025 KEY MESSAGES: 1) Today will be cooler and dry for most areas. 3) An upper trough moving in Saturday will bring showers and thunderstorms with a slight risk of severe weather. WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Cold front will move through the area this morning which will allow for a dry day in most areas with somewhat cooler temperatures. SW flow aloft ahead of the upper trough tonight will allow some of those showers and thunderstorms to drift north into NE Montana. The upper trough will move across western and central Montana on Saturday and eastern Montana Saturday night.
A sunny and hot July 4th is forecast with highs of 90-95 in valley areas, and upper 80s atop the higher elevations of the Cumberland Plateau. A weak 5h trough will be drifting south through the area today, while an inverted surface/8h trough axis shifts west from GA into AL.
244 AM EDT Fri Jul 4 2025 High pressure will bring dry and seasonably cool temperatures to the region today, with pleaant conditions expected.
645 AM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025 - Increasing storm chances this afternoon across far western areas, spreading east to include the Highway 281 corridor by late afternoon/early evening.
High pressure in place will provide us plenty of sunshine that will push us into the lower 90s today.
645 AM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025 (Tonight through Saturday night) High pressure across the Gulf continues to build into the weekend, with drier air keeping most Independence Day celebrations rain- free.
628 AM EDT Fri Jul 4 2025 Expansive high pressure will settle directly across our area today. The high will then slide off the mid-Atlantic coastline through the weekend.
1036 AM EDT Fri Jul 4 2025 High pressure builds in Friday then centers over the area Friday night.
Secondly, while it is reasonable to expect another episode of at least slightly below normal temperatures later this summer, it is not far-fetched that today's cooler temperatures could be the coolest high temperatures inland until after Labor Day.
Ahead of the low, southeasterly flow will advect warm, moist air into the region with sfc DPs climbing into the upper 50s to low 60s across much of western SD into northeastern WY.
419 AM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025 - Increasing storm chances this afternoon across far western areas, spreading east to include the Highway 281 corridor by late afternoon/early evening.
This flow lines up with the troughing pattern that has been setting up in the southeastern U. CIMSS 700-850mb steering layer analysis still shows some evidence of the col area, but the 300-850mb confirms the troughing across most of the Sunshine State. Guidance suggests that this troughing will remain in place at least through tomorrow, so we will continue to advertise our highest PoPs (50%) until then.
641 AM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025 Overall, dry and calm conditions are expected to prevail under upper level ridging.
737 AM EDT Fri Jul 4 2025 High pressure builds in Friday then centers over the area Friday night.
655 AM EDT Fri Jul 4 2025 High pressure over the eastern part of the nation gives our region dry weather for Independence Day today into Saturday.
259 AM MST Fri Jul 4 2025 - Dry, along with cooler-than-normal, conditions are expected for the 4th of July.
We expect this upper level low to continue to generate pockets of heavy rain into the afternoon. This is due to forcing from a mid level trough over the Edwards Plateau interacting with an unseasonably moist airmass with PWs of 1.
518 AM EDT Fri Jul 4 2025 A trough will drop south into the area bringing a chance of unsettled weather today. Starting Friday, the region will be under the influence of high pressure through the next few days.
Temperatures will top out a degree or two above normal in the low to mid 90s.
725 AM EDT Fri Jul 4 2025 High pressure will bring dry and seasonably cool temperatures to the region today, with pleasant conditions expected.
This is due to forcing from a mid level trough over the Edwards Plateau interacting with an unseasonably moist airmass with PWs of 1.
819 AM MDT Fri Jul 4 2025 815 am Update: Dry cold front coming in with higher winds this morning than expected, so increased winds for today. TFJ KEY MESSAGES: 1) Today will be cooler and dry for most areas. 3) An upper trough moving in Saturday will bring showers and thunderstorms with a slight risk of severe weather. WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Cold front will move through the area this morning which will allow for a dry day in most areas with somewhat cooler temperatures. SW flow aloft ahead of the upper trough tonight will allow some of those showers and thunderstorms to drift north into NE Montana. The upper trough will move across western and central Montana on Saturday and eastern Montana Saturday night.
- Seasonably Warm, Increasing Humidity - Isolated Storms Friday Afternoon - Scattered Storm Activity Saturday, Marginal Risk for Strong to Severe Storms Amplified H5 ridge axis has entered the eastern Plains early this morning and will continue to propagate eastward through the remainder of the afternoon. That could be a tad high for the actual dewpoint range, if boundary layer mixing is stronger, that could result in dewpoints topping out more around the lower to mid 60s. Saturday, H5 ridge axis completely slides eastward, with a stronger vort maxima propagating across the Central Plains and associated weak surface wave.
1235 PM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025 - Seasonably Warm, Increasing Humidity - Isolated Storms Friday Afternoon - Scattered Storm Activity Saturday, Marginal Risk for Strong to Severe Storms Amplified H5 ridge axis has entered the eastern Plains early this morning and will continue to propagate eastward through the remainder of the afternoon. That could be a tad high for the actual dewpoint range, if boundary layer mixing is stronger, that could result in dewpoints topping out more around the lower to mid 60s. Saturday, H5 ridge axis completely slides eastward, with a stronger vort maxima propagating across the Central Plains and associated weak surface wave.
246 PM MDT Fri Jul 4 2025 KEY MESSAGES: 1) A cooler airmass will continue to settle into the area tonight with lows mainly in the 50s.
222 PM EDT Fri Jul 4 2025 High pressure promotes dry but hot weather through the holiday weekend. A weak cold front brings back the chance for showers and thunderstorms to begin the new work week. High pressure drifts east of the area at the surface tonight and Saturday while building in in the mid and upper levels. In collaboration with neighbors to the east, did add an isolated mountain shower this afternoon given the somewhat agitated cumulus field there per the elevated heat source effect and weak ridgetop convergence. However, even with lowland lowland highs in the mid 90s for Saturday, dew points in the lower 60s should corral peak heat indices at or below 100 degrees F.
110 PM EDT Fri Jul 4 2025 High pressure will bring dry and seasonably cool temperatures to the region today, with pleasant conditions expected.
256 PM EDT Fri Jul 4 2025 Upper level low pressure will exit across the Maritimes tonight. High pressure will build south of the area Saturday.
On Saturday, the mid/upper ridge will be building to it peak across the TN Valley, creating stable conditions that will be difficult for convection to overcome. Dewpoints today have dropped into the 60s in most spots with afternoon mixing, and that will likely happen again tomorrow, so humidity levels will be tolerable with high temperatures in the lower to mid 90s.
* Warming Trend starts Saturday as high pressure returns.
- Remaining mild throughout with highs around the low 90s. on the western periphery of an upper level ridge that extends northeastward from the Southern Plains to the Central Mississippi River Valley and Upper Midwest. In the lower levels, a weak surface to 850 mb trough was present over eastern Colorado at 15 UTC.
(Tonight through Saturday night) High pressure over the Gulf continues to maintain mostly dry conditions. Despite below average high temperatures in the low 90s, a Moderate Risk (Level 2 of 4) of heat-related impacts persists tomorrow as "feels like" temperatures climb into the triple digits, up to mid- 100s, primarily east of US Hwy 281.
256 PM MDT Fri Jul 4 2025 KEY MESSAGES: 1) A cooler airmass will continue to settle into the area tonight with lows mainly in the 50s.
157 PM EDT Fri Jul 4 2025 High pressure will prevail into the weekend amidst increasingly warm and humid conditions.
Low temps tonight will be in the lower 70s inland to upper 70s closer to the coasts. For Saturday the key question will be what happens with the developing low pressure system off the SE US coast. There should be more breaks in the clouds on Saturday, especially over the western half of the area, so high temps should be a few degrees warmer ranging from the upper 80s to lower 90s.
Instability and moisture along with dynamics associated with an upper trough will promote rounds of showers and thunderstorms across the region through this evening.
A cold front continues to progress across the state with storms firing along the front. These storms along the cold front could cause localized heavy rain which could result in localized flooding. An upper level trough will pass across the region Saturday leading to increased rain chances and cooler temperatures. High temperatures are forecast to drop down into the lower 70s to lower 80s. The wrap around precipitation from an upper level low is forecast to bring in showers and thunderstorms Saturday morning.
The rest of today will be 5-10 degrees cooler than normal for this time of year.
This could have potential impacts to festivities along Apalachee Bay and from Apalachicola around to Dixie county, Tallahassee, and from Bainbridge east to Valdosta IF the CAMs are correct.
210 PM MDT Fri Jul 4 2025 - Expect showers and thunderstorms today bringing moderate to heavy rainfall, gusty winds, and small to moderate hail as an upper level wave/trough pushes east. - Cooler temperatures today and Saturday with highs only in the 70s and 80s.
1252 PM EDT Fri Jul 4 2025 High pressure over the region tonight will result in dry and cool conditions. Temperatures will warm back to normal levels on Saturday, as high pressure shifts east off the coast.
- Warmer drier weather is expected for the week ahead.
- Isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible this weekend, with temperatures trending warmer. We have a few showers trying to go up near Brownwood and the eastern Big Country as warm, moist air is pushed northward around the low. The highest chance for storms will be across our southeastern counties tomorrow.
Warm and humid conditions will persist overnight with overnight lows generally forecast in the low to mid 70s, which is near to slightly above normal depending on the location.
Water vapor imagery highlights a weak upper-level trough sagging into the southeastern US and the northeastern Gulf of America. From synopsis, a deep trough complex over the Southeast US and Florida will maintain gentle southwest breezes across the Florida Keys through the weekend.
1235 PM EDT Fri Jul 4 2025 High pressure will prevail into the weekend amidst increasingly warm and humid conditions.
Light and variable winds will persist, and after temps peak in the lower 90s this afternoon, values at firework time will be around 80 degrees.
A growing ridge of high pressure is centered over northern Mexico and will allow heights to rise over the Desert Southwest through this weekend and the upcoming work week.
Heat indices will remain in the low to mid 90s for the 4th of July weekend.
- Increasing storm chances this afternoon across far western areas, spreading east to include the Highway 281 corridor by late afternoon/early evening.
The low-level profile remains cyclonic and confluent, a recipe for maintaining rain/thunder chances at both terminals through Saturday morning, when drier air may arrive. Water vapor imagery highlights a weak upper-level trough sagging into the southeastern US and the northeastern Gulf of America.
- Remaining mild throughout with highs around the low 90s. on the western periphery of an upper level ridge that extends northeastward from the Southern Plains to the Central Mississippi River Valley and Upper Midwest. In the lower levels, a weak surface to 850 mb trough was present over eastern Colorado at 15 UTC. the Tri-State area will remain situated on the northern periphery of an upper level ridge (anchored over the Southern Plains and northern Mexico). Guidance does indicate that a complex upper level low presently offshore the Pacific Northwest will gradually dig southward along the Pacific Coast late this weekend, tightening the height gradient (and increasing the magnitude of WSW flow aloft) over the Desert Southwest, 4-Corners and portions of the central Rockies.
Not everyone will see rainfall given the limited size of the showers, but if you happen to get a shower, brief, heavy rainfall will be the primary hazard given the high precipitable water values. With a rather high freezing level (~16,000 ft) and shallow convection, most showers are not expected to become deep enough to produce lightning. The mix of sun of clouds will keep temperatures cooler than average with highs generally in the 80s deg F.
118 PM EDT Fri Jul 4 2025 High pressure builds in through tonight.
Dry weather is expected elsewhere but also warmer temperatures and higher humidity leading to peak heat index values approaching 105F.
Onshore flow continues as a series of short wave, upper level troughs move over the area tonight. Could see isolated thunderstorms over the ridges through the same time period.
1026 PM EDT Fri Jul 4 2025 Upper level low pressure will exit across the Maritimes tonight. High pressure will build south of the area Saturday.
700 PM EDT Fri Jul 4 2025 High pressure over the region tonight will result in dry and cool conditions. Temperatures will warm back to normal levels on Saturday, as high pressure shifts east off the coast.
740 PM EDT Fri Jul 4 2025 High pressure will slide off the mid-Atlantic coastline this weekend with a return of heat and humidity.
645 PM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025 (Tonight through Saturday night) High pressure over the Gulf continues to maintain mostly dry conditions. Despite below average high temperatures in the low 90s, a Moderate Risk (Level 2 of 4) of heat-related impacts persists tomorrow as "feels like" temperatures climb into the triple digits, up to mid- 100s, primarily east of US Hwy 281.
Lighter rain showers are likely to continue along and south of the cold front through the evening. A cold front continues to progress across the state with storms firing along the front. These storms along the cold front could cause localized heavy rain which could result in localized flooding. An upper level trough will pass across the region Saturday leading to increased rain chances and cooler temperatures. High temperatures are forecast to drop down into the lower 70s to lower 80s. The wrap around precipitation from an upper level low is forecast to bring in showers and thunderstorms Saturday morning.
Onshore flow will continue to bring cooler, below normal temperatures with locally breezy winds for Saturday, with dry weather.
728 PM EDT Fri Jul 4 2025 High pressure will prevail into the weekend amidst increasingly warm and humid conditions.
458 PM MDT Fri Jul 4 2025 - Expect showers and thunderstorms today bringing moderate to heavy rainfall, gusty winds, and small to moderate hail as an upper level wave/trough pushes east. - Cooler temperatures today and Saturday with highs only in the 70s and 80s.
While not expected to directly affect our area, associated lower level troughing does stretch quite far to the southwest and has played a role in a precipitable water well above 2 inches. This low/troughing is also keeping the Atlantic ridge displaced east of our area, resulting in light southwest to westerly breezes. Expect overnight lows in the lower 80s with dew points remaining in the mid 70s. The combination of a developing Tropical Depression off the Carolina Coast and the Atlantic ridge off to our east will result in light to gentle southwest to west breezes on Keys waters through the overnight period.
- Isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible this weekend, with temperatures trending warmer. Otherwise, expect warmer temperatures today with highs in the lower to mid 90s across the western 1/3 of the area and 80s elsewhere.
(Today and tonight) This high moisture (PWATs of 1.
317 AM EDT Sat Jul 5 2025 * Hot and dry today, with afternoon highs in the low to mid 90s.
951 PM MDT Fri Jul 4 2025 - Cooler temperatures today and Saturday with highs only in the 70s and 80s.
Expect hit-or-miss showers across central and eastern Kansas today, ahead of a mid-level trough progressing east, amidst unseasonably high precipitable waters. Our attention then turns to the potential for isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms late this afternoon and evening, mainly along/north of Highway 50, as a weak cold front stalls across central KS. The severe threat should end by late evening, although non-severe activity could fester past midnight aided by a weak low-level jet, and mid-level troughing approaching from the north.
Discussion: High pressure remains in control of the weather across the southern Appalachian region today and tonight. As such, today will still be seasonably warm, with temperatures in the low to mid 90s or slightly above normal. You can never rule out an isolated storm over the higher terrain here in the summer, but it seems unlikely today.
119 AM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025 Overall, drier and calmer conditions are expected to prevail under upper level ridging.
Upper level flow is beginning to cut-off low over Carolinas, while Tropical Depression Three is situated off the Atlantic seaboard, with any concerns of impacts focused in the Carolinas. As the ridge builds eastward into the Mid MS Valley, the cutoff low will retrograde westward in the northern Gulf.
Some periods will have higher chances than others, and will depend on the location of boundaries and timing of waves aloft moving across the region on the eastern side of what will be a strong subtropical ridge over the Southwest. (Through Saturday Night) An MCS over western KS, aided by an ejecting s/wv trough, is expected to weaken by the time it reaches NE OK, according to the HRRR.
343 AM EDT Sat Jul 5 2025 High pressure will keep the weather mainly dry today, though cannot rule out an isolated storm in the North Carolina mountains.
(Today) A weak 5h trough axis was slowly shifting southwest through the TN valley into west GA this morning. A cluster of showers has developed in the past couple of hours in Winston and Walker Counties and are moving westward with the inverted trough axis. Another hot day is anticipated with highs in the lower to middle 90s.