Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
(This evening through Tuesday night) High pressure will continue to dominate the Panhandles and should remain centered around the southwest Panhandles. Not much change on Tuesday as the ridge of high pressure will barely move, so we expect nearly similar temperatures, and again a minimal chance for precipitation to occur.
1149 AM CDT Mon Aug 19 2024 (Rest of Today) High pressure will continue slowly sinking south today as an upper trough axis digs south over the Appalachians, bringing cooler and dry conditions to the Tennessee Valley. Have adjusted highs slightly cooler this afternoon, now topping out in the lower 80s across NE AL and southern middle TN, but warmer near 90 degrees for areas west of I-65.
202 PM EDT Mon Aug 19 2024 A cold front will move southeast across central NC through this evening.
High pressure brings dry weather for Tuesday through the weekend. Becoming hot after midweek as high pressure also builds aloft. A diffuse secondary cold front continues to cross the region this afternoon into early this evening with isolated to scattered showers, along with an isolated thunderstorm possible. Warmer air around 15kft should serve to limit parcel ascent above that level. Overnight lows across the lower elevations will dip into the mid 50s, perhaps lower 50s in typical cold air drainage spots tonight. Cool high pressure Tuesday will yield daytime highs in the lower to mid 70s. This midweek period features nothing but high pressure building slowly into the area from the northwest, beneath cyclonic northwest mid/upper-level flow.
A strong, mid-level ridge anchored over the southern High Plains and impacting deep South Texas and the lower RGV will support afternoon high temperatures 5 to 10 degrees above normal. With dew points in the lower to mid 70s, heat index values will be nudged above 110 degrees for eastern inland sections for much of Tuesday afternoon. Deep South Texas and the lower Rio Grande Valley will see plenty of sun, a paucity of rain, and light winds.
------------------------------------------------------------------- Scattered light showers and drizzle have persisted into the afternoon hours with lingering low-level moisture aided by daytime heating as an upper trough axis exits to the east. Drier air is evident with upstream dew points in the 50s, and continued northwest flow today will advect that drier and cooler air overhead. It will also maintain a blanket of low clouds and weak insolation will hold highs in the 60s outside of eastern Ohio where some breaks in the cloud coverage will allow temperatures to hit the low 70s. Remaining precipitation will wane this evening after sunset, but cloud cover will be reinforced overnight in continued northwesterly gradient flow with building high pressure. 5 dam 500 mb height falls as an upper low settles into Upstate New York.
246 PM EDT Mon Aug 19 2024 A cold front will move southeast across central NC through this evening.
pdf A longwave trough axis has carved out from the Great Lakes to off the Southeast U. A cold front has made headway through Middle Georgia. Later tonight and Tuesday, a deamplification of the 500 mb trough will quit pushing the front southward before it ever has a chance to get south of the FL/GA line.
120 PM EDT Mon Aug 19 2024 A strong upper level trough will cross the area today and move offshore tonight. A cold front will move southeast through the region this afternoon.
Our flow will become more southeasterly tomorrow as the inverted trough over Chihuahua pushes into southern and central Sonora.
Northwest flow aloft and high pressure at the surface will keep dry and cooler conditions in place through the first half of this week.
At the surface, high pressure, centered in the northern United States, was building into the region. This weekend's cold front was now south, all the way to the Gulf of Mexico. Aloft, a northwest flow regime has set up on the back of a trough of low pressure located over the eastern United States. Other than the low clouds, satellite shows clear skies overhead as a result of a large area of subsidence noted on water vapor imagery. The stratocumulus will remain stubborn and maintain itself a while longer, so we're likely on track for cooler temperatures than what were advertised in previous forecasts. Afternoon high temperatures today will be in the 70s and 80, and slightly cooler Tuesday with highs projected to climb only into the mid 70s to mid 80s, warmest in our southwestern forecast area.
132 PM PDT Mon Aug 19 2024 Hot inland weather is expected through Tuesday as high pressure peaks in strength.
(Tonight through Tuesday night) Key Messages: - Moderate to extreme risk of heat-related illnesses Tuesday - Heat Advisory has been issued for Tuesday afternoon A mid to upper level ridge will continue to remained parked over the region through the short term. At lower levels, the 850mb ridge axis will be centered over SE Texas this afternoon before shifting westward toward the mid Texas coast on Tuesday. With such a stacked ridge and 850mb temperatures at or above the climatological max for this time of the year, temperatures will continue to climb with ambient temperatures above 100 degrees expected for all but the immediate coast and barrier islands.
Frontal boundary north of Florida and trough across the eastern U. will keep the Atlantic ridge axis south of the region today, maintaining a deep W/SW flow across central Florida.
Dewpoints here at KLCH fell from near 80 degrees overnight to the lower 70s by sunrise. That said, it will still be rather hot, with apparent temps ranging from 105 to 110 across the area, with the higher heat index readings across SE TX and coastal portions of LA. Meanwhile, a weak disturbance moving south along the eastern periphery of the upper ridge is resulting in some scattered weak showers and storms across parts of the area, while a band of stronger storms have formed over the outer coastal waters.
Looking at current water vapor satellite imagery, there continues to be a deep upper level low centered just off the coast of Washington.
A large area of high pressure situated over Ontario into the Great Lakes region has led to quiet weather locally today with temperatures a little below mid/late August normals; early afternoon temperatures were in the mid to upper 70s. Wildfire smoke, mainly aloft, will continue to overspread the area from north to south along the eastern periphery of an upper level ridge.
Current Conditions and Synoptic Pattern: Water vapor and upper air analysis shows the area in northwest flow aloft with a large trough to the east and a mid level high across west Texas and New Mexico. Conditional climatology for these 850mb temps and clouds generally keeps the median of highs in the low to middle 80s.
215 PM EDT Mon Aug 19 2024 Drier high pressure builds across our area tonight.
Current water vapor imagery and RAP upper air analysis indicate a deep trough along the Eastern Seaboard extending southward into the FLorida Peninsula. There is an area of subsidence on the western side of this trough axis with drier air advecting into the Tennessee Valley and Southeastern U. At the surface, a cold front is beginning to lose southward progress and transitioning into a stationary boundary. However, the main focus for the potential for a few strong to severe storms will be across northern areas where the upper trough, instability, amd lift will be strong enough to produce a low threat for severe storms. Highs this afternoon will climb into the low to mid 90s with peak heat indices ranging form around 103- 108 degrees.
Tuesday further cranks up the heat as the low-level thermal ridge slides ever so slightly further east into our region from the west. This pushes temperatures a couple of degrees warmer than this afternoon.
102 PM CDT Mon Aug 19 2024 (Today through Tuesday night) A strong 500mb high pressure system is holding over the Panhandles with model agreement not expecting it to move off for the rest of the week. This high pressure system will keep the upper-level flow pretty stagnate for the time being, which will allow the Panhandles to continue to heat up each afternoon.
(This evening through Tuesday night) Cirrus debris from an early morning MCS across Arkansas kept most of the CWFA slightly cooler today, which had some implications on the previously issued heat advisory.
300 PM EDT Mon Aug 19 2024 A cold front will move across the Carolinas this evening bringing a threat for unsettled, and potentially severe, weather to the area. High pressure then builds in from the north and west Tuesday through late week once again bringing drier and cooler weather to the region. The aforementioned cold front is forecast to reach the Crystal Coast and stall due to differential heating forcing a sea breeze. Cooler and drier weather settles over the area for the remainder of the work week, with some modest shower and thunderstorm chances over the weekend as moisture from the stalled frontal boundary struggles to crawl back northwards.
(Tonight through Tuesday night) The upper level ridge is still slated to sit over Texas the next few days, with the resulting subsidence and low level southwesterly winds off the Mexican Plateau pushing temperatures to near record or record highs. The only significant forecast issue in the short term is the need to upgrade the highlights for heat.
The cold front has advanced south into the northern Gulf of Mexico, and a more pleasant airmass will settle in over Central Alabama for the next couple of days as the two synoptic features will stay generally in the same position. Highs will be in the upper 80s to lower 90s today, and a couple degrees cooler tomorrow with plenty of sunshine, but afternoon dewpoints will mix down into the 60s, so the humidity will be at a more comfortable level for August.
Through Tuesday Night: Mid-level blocking across much of the CONUS will keep the western Great Lakes in an overall NNW flow pattern aloft through the period. A reinforcing seasonably cool airmass associated with an upper- level low over southern Ontario will push a backdoor cold front across Wisconsin and into northern Illinois tonight into Tuesday morning.
1238 PM CDT Mon Aug 19 2024 (Today through Tuesday) The center of the 599 dam Subtropical Ridge at 500 MB remains over New Mexico, however the axis shifts from over Northern Texas today to over South Central Texas by Tuesday. Subsidence under the Ridge and a drier than normal airmass should keep rain out of the forecast.
(Now through Tuesday) "Cooler" and drier conditions are here for the time being. The upper trough will continue to deepen across the eastern US while upper ridging builds over the west. At this surface the cold front has pushed through the marine zones ushering in significantly drier air to the area. While high temperatures will still climb into the 90s, it just won't feel as bad out with the lower moisture values.
114 PM EDT Mon Aug 19 2024 Drier high pressure builds across our area tonight.
113 PM EDT Mon Aug 19 2024 High pressure and a dry airmass will be in place across the region through the rest of the week.
A 597dam upper-level ridge continues to be located over the Texas/New Mexico border and should drift westward through Tuesday afternoon. Winds should become light this evening in the low-flow surface regime, despite the fact that a surface frontal boundary should approach the Big Country overnight before stalling across north Texas. Dewpoint temperatures should mix out to the low 50s across the region, so heat indices are not expected to be very high.
However, good atmospheric mixing this afternoon will bring gusty southerly winds, particularly across the ridges of southeast Oregon. The most favorable conditions for storms are predicted east of a line from Idaho City to McCall through the early evening, where the highest shear and instability are expected. 75 inches are possible (15% chance) with the strongest storms, given the high PWs.
A high-amplitude synoptic flow pattern is now in place with northwesterly mean flow aloft and northeasterly flow in the lower troposphere. Visible satellite shows upstream drying of the lower troposphere evident in tapering culumus field with northward extent. Will lean toward warmer statistical/MOS for temperatures tomorrow given the time of year and pattern, but this will only make a degree or two difference as guidance is fairly tightly clustered around mid- to upper-70s for maximum temperatures tomorrow. The amplified synoptic period will continue with a slow eastward progression of the western ridge into our region late week and into the weekend. So, overnight lows tend to be on the lower end of the model spectrum.
1237 PM CDT Mon Aug 19 2024 (Today through Tuesday Night) A strong mid-upper level ridge will continue to create dangerously hot conditions across SE Texas Today and Tuesday.
1232 PM CDT Mon Aug 19 2024 (Today through Tuesday afternoon) An anomalously strong mid and upper ridge will remain overhead over the next several days. A repeat is expected Tuesday as even the hopeful NAM keeps any cold front north of our area now.
246 PM EDT Mon Aug 19 2024 High pressure and a dry airmass will be in place across the region through the rest of the week.
1125 AM EDT Mon Aug 19 2024 Mountain showers and thunderstorms are expected this afternoon, before dry high pressure builds in.
1217 PM CDT Mon Aug 19 2024 - Quiet weather through midweek with high pressure over the region.
200 PM CDT Mon Aug 19 2024 - Cooler temperatures are likely today and tomorrow behind the recent cold front.
142 PM EDT Mon Aug 19 2024 An upper trough will exit the region later tonight with showers and thunderstorms expected this afternoon. Canadian high pressure builds in behind the front on Tuesday, bringing dry conditions and cooler temperatures through the end of the week. As the departing cold front continues to move further offshore, the deep trough will swing eastward later today,continuing to develop some showers and thunderstorms, especially further east. Coverage will decrease in the evening as the frontal boundary moves farther offshore and high pressure builds in from the northwest.
Morning water vapor/RAP analysis indicates the region remains between the synoptic trough east of the MS River Valley while stout 597DM 500mb mean ridge remains parked off to the west over west TX & southwest states. Highs will be seasonable in the low-mid 90s (91-96F). /DC/ Happy Monday! This morning, the region remains on the southwestern edge of an upper trough axis that will continue to dig into the southeast CONUS, while a an expansive high pressure remains to our west, over the Southern Plains. Temperatures will top out in the lower 90s this afternoon, which will be a pleasant change from triple digit highs over the last several days. Expected temperatures in the lower 90s and dewpoints in the 50s/60s over the next several days.
The cooler temperatures will get a weak re-enforcing shot during the night when an upper level disturbance moves through the region. This will result in cooler than normal temperatures for a second day on Tuesday.
Mean ridge will remain over west TX with longwave synoptic trough over the northeast states.
The dome of high pressure continues to keep dry mid-level air over the forecast area. Overnight lows across the aforementioned area may be a few degrees cooler with this stalled boundary, but overall temperatures will remain above normal tonight in the upper 60s to 70s. With the dome of high pressure overhead, conditions are expected to remain dry tomorrow with no hope for any precipitation.
(Tonight) Partly sunny skies have persisted early this afternoon as northerly flow and high pressure continues to bring drier and cooler conditions to the Tennessee Valley. Expect lows to range from the lower 60s in the higher terrain of northeast AL and southern middle TN, to mid to upper 60s for areas along and west of I-65.
Temperatures on the north side of this boundary are running about 5 to 15 degrees cooler than yesterday, with the largest drops seen over northern Oklahoma. Models depict a storm complex coming down off the high plains again tonight, with a low chance (10-20%) of impacting our northeastern counties (by which point, it should be mostly just showers). Tomorrow, heat will continue across southwest Oklahoma and western north Texas (heat indices in the 103-108 degree range), while the rest of the forecast area enjoys slightly cooler weather (all the way down to the low 90s in north central Oklahoma).
338 PM CDT Mon Aug 19 2024 - High pressure will keep dry conditions and near normal temperatures in place through midweek. High pressure was firmly in control across the Northland this afternoon, stretching from Hudson Bay to the Central Plains. Diurnal cumulus was affecting much of the region with a few radar returns west of the Brainerd Lakes region underneath some upper level vorticity and low level convergence in the wake of an upper low moving into the Canadian Maritimes.
128 PM EDT Mon Aug 19 2024 A cold front will move southeast across central NC through this evening.
245 PM CDT Mon Aug 19 2024 - Cooler on Tuesday with a chance of light rain showers. Warmer temperatures have developed across the area today thanks to widespread sunshine. H5 analysis shows an amplified ridge over central US/Canada with a branch of the jet taking a shortcut through the heart of the dominant flow.
The Lower Keys have been the losers this afternoon in terms of rainfall. With convection gone across the Lower and Middle Keys, heat indices have quickly rebounded to Heat Advisory criteria at multiple observation sites. An upper trough positioned over the Eastern Seaboard has dug further southwestward into the Gulf over the past day. This extension of the trough has made enough room south of the Keys for the western periphery of the North Atlantic ridge to sneak in.
Synoptic pattern remains mostly stagnant with upper ridging over the central US bracketed by upper troughs on both coasts. GOES PW sounder shows a relatively dry airmass over Iowa, with the higher moisture plume (> 1. Model solutions do show this feature breaking down the upper ridge slightly, and indicate a period of weak upper level Q-vector convergence/lift. Model soundings and X- sections show decent saturation in the upper levels, however the low levels struggle to saturate especially with southward extent.
The upper levels show an omega blocking pattern moving slowly into central CONUS. At the surface, there is high pressure to the north over southern Minnesota. Cooler air advecting over the area has led to slightly below normal high temperatures. Tuesday, short- wave trough moves through eastern Kansas and will provide weak left across the area. While there will be sufficient mid-level moisture for cloud cover, drier air in the low levels, along with low instability, will hinder rain chances and thus will maintain a dry forecast for Tuesday.
Pattern Synopsis and Forecast: Northwest flow aloft persists through the week as another closed low continues to dip south over the NE Coast and high pressure builds over the central US.
728 PM CDT Mon Aug 19 2024 (Tonight through Tuesday night) Key Messages: - Moderate to extreme risk of heat-related illnesses Tuesday - Heat Advisory has been issued for Tuesday afternoon A mid to upper level ridge will continue to remained parked over the region through the short term. At lower levels, the 850mb ridge axis will be centered over SE Texas this afternoon before shifting westward toward the mid Texas coast on Tuesday. With such a stacked ridge and 850mb temperatures at or above the climatological max for this time of the year, temperatures will continue to climb with ambient temperatures above 100 degrees expected for all but the immediate coast and barrier islands.
As a result, the deep Atlantic anticyclone is displaced well of to the east. Surface winds in the Keys are are light out of the southwest to west as dictated by the troughing to the north and ridging to our southeast. Short Term Update - The Keys will remain within a deep light southwest to westerly flow due to the troughing to our north pushing a bit further south. Expect overnight lows to be in the lower to mid 80s with dew points in the mid to upper 70s. Troughing extending down the Atlantic and along the Gulf Coast will hold the Atlantic ridge at bay off to the east.
751 PM EDT Mon Aug 19 2024 A cold front will move across the Carolinas this evening bringing a threat for unsettled, and potentially severe, weather to the area. High pressure then builds in from the north and west Tuesday through late week once again bringing drier and cooler weather to the region. The aforementioned cold front is forecast to reach the Crystal Coast and stall due to differential heating forcing a sea breeze. Cooler and drier weather settles over the area for the remainder of the work week, with some modest shower and thunderstorm chances over the weekend as moisture from the stalled frontal boundary struggles to crawl back northwards.
736 PM EDT Mon Aug 19 2024 High pressure and a dry airmass will be in place across the region through the rest of the week.
625 PM CDT Mon Aug 19 2024 - High pressure will keep dry conditions and near normal temperatures in place through midweek. High pressure was firmly in control across the Northland this afternoon, stretching from Hudson Bay to the Central Plains. Diurnal cumulus was affecting much of the region with a few radar returns west of the Brainerd Lakes region underneath some upper level vorticity and low level convergence in the wake of an upper low moving into the Canadian Maritimes.
648 PM CDT Mon Aug 19 2024 (This evening through Tuesday Night) HOT HOT HOT! Many locations across Southeast Texas are now in the upper 90s and some areas see the high temperatures peak at 100-101 deg F this afternoon. For Tuesday, high pressure will persist across Southeast Texas and with west-southwesterly winds, temperatures will be able to rise a degree or three higher than today.
623 PM CDT Mon Aug 19 2024 (This evening through Tuesday night) Cirrus debris from an early morning MCS across Arkansas kept most of the CWFA slightly cooler today, which had some implications on the previously issued heat advisory.
Remaining precipitation will wane this evening after sunset, but cloud cover will be reinforced overnight in continued northwesterly gradient flow with building high pressure. 5 dam 500 mb height falls as an upper low settles into Upstate New York.
Discussion: Our CWA is placed under the western side of a broad trough which is dominating the Eastern portions of the United States, with strong ridging in place over the west of the country. This trough has created an unstable atmosphere which will continue into this evening, albeit less potent than these past couple days. Temperatures will fall alongside the moisture, with overnight lows expected to be in the low to mid 50s in the higher elevations and low to mid 60s in the valley. High temperatures in the valley are expected to be in the 70s and 80s in the valley today and tomorrow, however the higher elevations may only reach the mid to upper 60s.
602 PM CDT Mon Aug 19 2024 (This evening through Tuesday night) High pressure will continue to dominate the Panhandles and should remain centered around the southwest Panhandles. Not much change on Tuesday as the ridge of high pressure will barely move, so we expect nearly similar temperatures, and again a minimal chance for precipitation to occur.
A high-amplitude synoptic flow pattern is now in place with northwesterly mean flow aloft and northeasterly flow in the lower troposphere. Visible satellite shows upstream drying of the lower troposphere evident in tapering cumulus field with northward extent. Will lean toward warmer statistical/MOS for temperatures tomorrow given the time of year and pattern, but this will only make a degree or two difference as guidance is fairly tightly clustered around mid- to upper-70s for maximum temperatures tomorrow. The amplified synoptic period will continue with a slow eastward progression of the western ridge into our region late week and into the weekend. So, overnight lows tend to be on the lower end of the model spectrum.