Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
In conjunction with the modest warming that took place today, there is high confidence in rain occuring (vs freezing rain) overnight for a majority of the area. I say majority because I have some concern that freezing drizzle (or even freezing fog) could occur in and around Hillsdale, MI. The low- level moisture profile is rather robust up to 700mb; perhaps too deep for drizzle. However, precipitation tends to linger as these low pressure systems depart. Cooler, more seasonable air attempts to move in for the latter part of the weekend as high pressure moves over the Plains and yet another low lifts through the Ohio Valley. The track of this low still varies in the guidance and run-to-run consistency has been poor.
1135 PM CST Tue Jan 23 2024 - Temperatures continue to warm this week with high temperatures above freezing and some record warm low temperatures possible. - Low clouds, fog, and drizzle/freezing drizzle possible through Wednesday. Some drizzle and freezing drizzle could fall out of these low clouds through the day tomorrow if there is enough lift, which could come along with weak 500mb vort impulses. Through the day tomorrow and into Thursday a weak upper level trough pushes over the Midwest, bringing the primary area of low pressure further to our south.
Depending on surface temperatures, some of this precipitation could be in the form of light freezing rain.
337 AM EST Wed Jan 24 2024 High pressure off the Carolina coast will steer warm air and Gulf Moisture across the eastern United States through the end of the week. A low pressure system over the Southern Plains will bring widespread precipitation to the area through the weekend, with heaviest rain occuring Thursday and Thursday night. Key Messages: 1: More mild weather 2: Better chances of light rain today Southerly flow continues to advect moisture and warmer temperatures right into the Mid-Atlantic, raising our temperatures and saturating the atmosphere even further. Southerly flow around the high will be complimented by increased southwesterly flow ahead of the frontal system associated with the western trough. This will advect warmer and moister air into the Mid Atlantic through midweek, raising precipitable water values to over 1.
1045 PM CST Tue Jan 23 2024 (This evening through Wednesday) Rain and embedded thunderstorms have finished and exited the area to the north this afternoon, leaving drier and a little warmer conditions across West Central Texas.
With overcast conditions, high temperatures for this afternoon were lowered from NBM a few degrees across portions of northeast Oklahoma where northerly winds will persist as weak inverted trough axis develops over northwest Arkansas/southeast Oklahoma.
1112 PM CST Tue Jan 23 2024 A warm front is lifting north through north Mississippi with moderate to heavy rain overspreading the Midsouth.
Weak southerly flow ahead of the low has allowed temperatures to rise into the mid 40s this morning with cooler air remaining in northwest Ohio and northern Indiana. Rain should help the lower atmosphere stay relatively mixed keeping visibilities above 2 or 3 miles. Rain coverage should start to diminish later this afternoon when the low, and forcing associated with it, moves northeast. Once rain stops and winds go calm under and behind the low, visibilities may start becoming reduced again later this afternoon.
542 AM CST Wed Jan 24 2024 - Hall, Buffalo, Phelps and Harlan counties were added to the Winter Weather Advisory due to concerns of freezing fog, freezing drizzle and/or light freezing rain making surfaces slick. The main concern for the near term will be the continued concern for some light icing this morning across portions of the area due to freezing fog, freezing drizzle and light freezing rain. Temperatures have been hovering at or slightly below the freezing mark for the last several hours across the Hastings forecast area. Slightly cooler temps would result in a little more ice accumulation. Currently, the lowest visibilities extend from Columbus and York, Nebraska to Concordia, Kansas. With temperatures in the 20s and 30s overnight, freezing fog may be a possibility. Thursday, an upper trough over the Desert Southwest will progress eastward.
- More precipitation chances tonight and tomorrow with patchy drizzle/freezing drizzle possible area wide, followed by rain chances in the afternoon and evening. While most of the precipitation looks to stay south of the local area, light freezing rain could clip the southern portions of Grant, Fayette, and CLayton counties. Even though model soundings show saturation through the Dendrite Growth Zone (DGZ), a prominent warm nose at 750-900mb makes rain/freezing rain the most likely precipitation type. Both surface air and road temperatures will likely be hovering right around freezing (40-60% chance for subfreezing road temperatures) and could cause rain to freeze at the surface. Periods of Fog Likely Today through Tomorrow Periods of fog/freezing fog continues through much of the next 48 hours with some reprieve coming during periods of rain.
Continued south-southwest winds along with sunnier skies and a break in rain chances in the wake of Wednesday's trough will result in highs on Thursday being warmer than on Wednesday and above average by a few degrees.
601 AM CST Wed Jan 24 2024 (Today through Thursday) An amplified pattern persists, with troughing over the central CONUS and ridging along the West and East Coasts. With temperatures in the low 70s Thursday afternoon, instability parameters increase, especially across the south.
Highs today range from around the mid 20s in the north, up to the lower 40s in the southwest where skies diminish to become mostly cloudy.
(Today through Thursday Night) A rather active short term period continues thanks to an upper level trough over the area allowing multiple disturbance to pass through. Severe weather chances are expected to remain on the low end with the main concern being isolated flash flooding due to the heavy rainfall.
The day is off to a warmer and more muggy start than the last several days as ESE flow continues to advect additional warm, moist air into the region. Daytime highs will top out well above average in the low to mid 80's with overnight lows in the 60's.
A quick moving trough of low pressure will move across the region under a northwesterly flow Thursday, that will bring light snowfall to the mountains. Snow accumulations will generally be light, with around a 50-60% probability of 4-6" inches in the higher terrain (above pass levels) along the ID/MT border and the Continental Divide in western Montana. A ridge of high pressure will begin building over the southwestern US by the end of the week and this weekend, with decent surge of moisture streaming on the northern periphery of the ridge over the Northern Rockies.
417 AM PST Wed Jan 24 2024 A low pressure system moving southeastward through the Great Basin will maintain a deeper marine layer into Thursday with a slight chance for light showers for late tonight into early Thursday.
602 AM CST Wed Jan 24 2024 - Chance for drizzle/freezing drizzle tonight into Thursday, mainly for Southern Minnesota into Western Wisconsin. An upper-level low will over New Mexico and Western TX will aid in the amplification of ridge into the Lower Peninsula of Michigan.
307 AM CST Wed Jan 24 2024 - Chance for drizzle/freezing drizzle tonight into Thursday, mainly for Southern Minnesota into Western Wisconsin. An upper-level low will over New Mexico and Western TX will aid in the amplification of ridge into the Lower Peninsula of Michigan.
Temperatures will stay above freezing and prevent icy road conditions.
515 AM CST Wed Jan 24 2024 (Today through Thursday Night) A rather active short term period continues thanks to an upper level trough over the area allowing multiple disturbance to pass through. Severe weather chances are expected to remain on the low end with the main concern being isolated flash flooding due to the heavy rainfall.
Weak short wave should exit our area to the east early this morning with short wave ridging moving in from the west. A few snow showers are still possible in the higher Beartooth-Absarokas today in the moist westerly mid level flow. By tonight the next approaching split trough will back winds to the SW and push Pacific moisture into the region. The split Pacific trough tracks across our region Thursday leading to an increasing chance of snow showers in the high country by Thursday afternoon/evening. Cross sections show just weak forcing aided by orographics, so we do not anticipate much snowfall accumulation in the high country. Chance of 2 inches is just 30% on the higher west facing slopes late Thursday through Thursday night. The lower elevations will not see much if any precipitation thanks to persistent downslope flow.
Patchy freezing fog will remain through the early morning hours today in some valley locations.
357 AM CST Wed Jan 24 2024 - Patchy fog, drizzle, and possible freezing drizzle is expected today through Thursday morning. This morning will see zonal flow continue ahead of an approaching trough. This WAA will bring high temps today into the low to mid 30s and lows tonight into the mid 20s to around 30 degrees. Low-level pockets of weak negative omega developing in association with these 500mb impulses will provide just enough lift for scattered drizzle and freezing drizzle development today through tonight. A Panhandle Hook low pressure undergoing cyclogenesis through the day today will quickly propagate into the lower Great Lakes region by Thursday night.
403 AM CST Wed Jan 24 2024 - Hall, Buffalo, Phelps and Harlan counties were added to the Winter Weather Advisory due to concerns of freezing fog, freezing drizzle and/or light freezing rain making surfaces slick. The main concern for the near term will be the continued concern for some light icing this morning across portions of the area due to freezing fog, freezing drizzle and light freezing rain. Temperatures have been hovering at or slightly below the freezing mark for the last several hours across the Hastings forecast area. Slightly cooler temps would result in a little more ice accumulation. Currently, the lowest visibilities extend from Columbus and York, Nebraska to Concordia, Kansas. With temperatures in the 20s and 30s overnight, freezing fog may be a possibility. Thursday, an upper trough over the Desert Southwest will progress eastward.
258 AM MST Wed Jan 24 2024 Freezing fog continues across the region this morning, mainly along the Milk River valley and the Missouri River below the dam.
523 AM CST Wed Jan 24 2024 (Today and tonight) A batch of rain will continue to move northward across the area through the morning hours fueled by a weak short wave trough moving within the larger scale cyclonic flow. Moist isentropic ascent will begin to wane in the afternoon with large scale ascent moving eastward with the larger scale trough axis. A weak deformation zone progged between 700-500mb on the back side of the trough will move overhead this evening.
534 AM CST Wed Jan 24 2024 - Patchy fog, drizzle, and possible freezing drizzle is expected today through Thursday morning. This morning will see zonal flow continue ahead of an approaching trough. This WAA will bring high temps today into the low to mid 30s and lows tonight into the mid 20s to around 30 degrees. Low-level pockets of weak negative omega developing in association with these 500mb impulses will provide just enough lift for scattered drizzle and freezing drizzle development today through tonight. A Panhandle Hook low pressure undergoing cyclogenesis through the day today will quickly propagate into the lower Great Lakes region by Thursday night.
642 AM EST Wed Jan 24 2024 A warm front will slowly move north through the region today with a few additional rain and freezing rain showers.
440 AM MST Wed Jan 24 2024 - Freezing fog will persist through mid-morning over low-lying areas in the Platte River Valley, resulting in visibilities as low as one quarter of a mile and potential for slick road conditions.
405 AM MST Wed Jan 24 2024 - Freezing fog will persist through mid-morning over low-lying areas in the Platte River Valley, resulting in visibilities as low as one quarter of a mile and potential for slick road conditions.
At the mid-to- upper levels, ridging positioned just downstream of the area remains the primary synoptic influence through the short term. Highs today will reach the lower 80s area-wide with lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Highs on Thursday will be a touch warmer, especially for Southwest Florida. Highs will range from the low to mid 80s, with warmer temperatures expected across inland and Southwest Florida.
Overnight lows for northeast parts of the CWA may fall to near freezing which could lead to a few slick spots or patchy freezing drizzle. Overall we are not expecting there to be much drizzle around by the time temperatures fall to near freezing so we are not planning on issuing any headlines for that risk. With lows near freezing, patchy ice is a possibility on untreated surfaces once again later tonight/tomorrow morning.
Look for lows ranging from the upper teens to upper 20s, and highs Thursday in the upper 30s and 40s (coolest along the lower Yellowstone near Miles City).
1117 AM CST Wed Jan 24 2024 (Today and tonight) A batch of rain will continue to move northward across the area through the morning hours fueled by a weak short wave trough moving within the larger scale cyclonic flow. Moist isentropic ascent will begin to wane in the afternoon with large scale ascent moving eastward with the larger scale trough axis. A weak deformation zone progged between 700-500mb on the back side of the trough will move overhead this evening.
1150 AM CST Wed Jan 24 2024 - Patchy fog, drizzle, and possible freezing drizzle is expected today through Thursday morning. This morning will see zonal flow continue ahead of an approaching trough. This WAA will bring high temps today into the low to mid 30s and lows tonight into the mid 20s to around 30 degrees. Low-level pockets of weak negative omega developing in association with these 500mb impulses will provide just enough lift for scattered drizzle and freezing drizzle development today through tonight. A Panhandle Hook low pressure undergoing cyclogenesis through the day today will quickly propagate into the lower Great Lakes region by Thursday night.
1212 PM CST Wed Jan 24 2024 (Today through Thursday Night) A rather active short term period continues thanks to an upper level trough over the area allowing multiple disturbance to pass through. Severe weather chances are expected to remain on the low end with the main concern being isolated flash flooding due to the heavy rainfall.
1104 AM CST Wed Jan 24 2024 - Freezing drizzle is leading to light glaze of ice this morning. There is a high chance in widespread temperatures above freezing, although just how high temperatures get will depend on snowpack age and coverage, along with cloud cover. Freezing drizzle continues across the region, with road conditions continued to be reported with a glaze of ice and slick. This will continue until roads have the chance to reach above freezing, which may occur around midday. General consensus is for freezing drizzle to shift east out of our area this evening as suspected forcing from higher winds/turbulence within the saturated layer shifts east. + When the low clouds/fog will move out is another story.
- Potential for light rain or drizzle freezing on mainly secondary roads through tonight.
The next low pressure wave is already spreading light rain across IL/IN and will develop in the southwest cwa around 12z, then continue moving northeast. Road temperatures are generally above freezing south of I-96 but closer to 30 north of there. Those colder temperatures could also lead to some freezing rain during the afternoon.
Most members show the higher totals falling south of a line roughly from Livingston to Columbus - a touch south of the 6-10" swath we've seen from previous days.
(This evening through Thursday) A trough passing across northwest Texas will combine with ample moisture across the region this evening.
After the frontal band passes, more showers will come in under the upper trough. Instability with the upper trough supports a 20% chance of thunderstorms in our CWA tonight, but even if thunderstorms don't occur the heavier showers may bring graupel, again a 20 percent chance. Then clearing and colder in Idaho Thursday night but clouding up again in eastern Oregon ahead of the next Pacific warm front.
248 PM CST Wed Jan 24 2024 - Drizzle, freezing drizzle, mist, & fog continues into this weekend. Low stratus and near-constant mist/fog will continue with plenty of low-level moisture from above-freezing temperatures melting the surrounding snowpack, and a stagnant airmass with the Upper Midwest stuck in the weak flow regime between a building high over the intermountain west & a low tracking up the lower Mississippi & Ohio River valleys. Slick roads and surface will also be redevelop tonight & Thursday with ground temperatures still below freezing, so plan on a slick & slow commute each morning. Heavier mist and accumulating drizzle looks likely Thursday as the precipitation shield from the low to our south slides over southern Minnesota & western Wisconsin.
1114 AM CST Wed Jan 24 2024 (Today through Thursday) An amplified pattern persists, with troughing over the central CONUS and ridging along the West and East Coasts. With temperatures in the low 70s Thursday afternoon, instability parameters increase, especially across the south.
922 AM PST Wed Jan 24 2024 A low pressure system will move southeastward through the Great Basin tonight into early Thursday.
Drizzle may persist in the wake of this low as some low-level forcing lingers. Our next low pressure system arrives Thursday evening (right new sunset), once again bringing rain in from south to north. The trough aloft amplifies as it lifts through Illinois, resulting in a period of moderate to heavy rain extending from roughly Hillsdale to Lafayette where rain in excess of 1/2 inch is expected.
1240 PM MST Wed Jan 24 2024 - Areas of dense freezing fog persist through today, tonight and Thursday morning.
303 PM EST Wed Jan 24 2024 Not unlike summer, a sprawling ridge axis has setup off the Florida East coast.
(Tonight through Thursday night) An upper level trough is entering West Texas this afternoon with southwesterly flow over the state. The main upper trough will become more progressive tonight and another round of showers and isolated thunderstorms will move from west to east across our CWA. As the upper trough moves to the east POPs will also move eastward and gradually decrease. The warmer temperatures will be out west where skies will clear earlier.
Overall, a southerly trend in the highest rainfall amounts is evident among models.
A deep trough is slowly advancing east across the spine of the Rocky mountains. The upper low is over the TX panhandle region and will continue to lift slowly toward the region. Expect this trapped moisture to continue causing a reduced visibilities and a persistent low deck of clouds as mixing remains limited until the upper trough can pass east of the region. A weak low to mid level short wave begins to lift out of the base of the longer wave trough this evening helping to induce weak isentropic ascent along the 295-300K surface.
Combined with dew points in the lower 70s, it certainly feels more like November or March than January in the Florida Keys this afternoon. This flow direction is owed to high pressure centered off the Carolina coastline, which has largely dominated our sensible weather all week. Did elect to nudge high temperatures up a degree or two for this period, approaching the lower 80s over the weekend.
1053 AM MST Wed Jan 24 2024 - Freezing fog will persist through mid-morning over low-lying areas in the Platte River Valley, resulting in visibilities as low as one quarter of a mile and potential for slick road conditions.
As we shift to a brief period of ridging, skies will clear from west to east over the next several hours.
With temperatures near freezing again tonight, slick spots will be possible overnight into the morning commute. Confidence in precipitation types remains low (< 40%) due to dry air aloft and temperatures near freezing.
Composite wind and vorticity analysis places a surface area of high pressure now just off the Carolina coastline, with a 500 mb ridge centered near Hispaniola. The surface feature continues to result in breezy conditions at times for the Florida Keys island chain along with low stratocumulus streaming along the periphery, especially over the Lower Keys and points west. Mid-level cloud cover continues to be shielded up and over the ridge aloft. While isolated showers will be possible, mainly near the Lower Keys, amounts should be quite light. From synopsis, a large high pressure system centered to the east of the Carolinas will slide steadily east southeast over the next several days.
1143 AM CST Wed Jan 24 2024 - Chance for drizzle/freezing drizzle tonight into Thursday, mainly for Southern Minnesota into Western Wisconsin. An upper-level low will over New Mexico and Western TX will aid in the amplification of ridge into the Lower Peninsula of Michigan.
(This evening through Thursday night) Upper level circulation over the South Plains of Texas will continue to weaken into an open trough as it moves across the Texas Panhandle this evening. Dense fog is expected to develop across much of the Panhandles again this evening as south and southeast surface winds keep the low level moisture across the region.
546 PM CST Wed Jan 24 2024 (This evening through Thursday) A trough passing across northwest Texas will combine with ample moisture across the region this evening.
No major forecast changes tonight as South Florida remains in the east-southeasterly wind flow on the periphery of deep-layered high pressure centered over the Atlantic. At the mid-to- upper levels, ridging positioned just downstream of the area remains the primary synoptic influence through the short term. Highs today will reach the lower 80s area-wide with lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Highs on Thursday will be a touch warmer, especially for Southwest Florida. Highs will range from the low to mid 80s, with warmer temperatures expected across inland and Southwest Florida.
Upper ridge over the Bahamas will keep will keep anomalous moist southwesterly flow, moist ascent/high most PWs out of the Caribbean Sea to deep tropics.
Ensembles continue to show dry conditions and warmer temperatures heading into the upcoming weekend. Ensemble 500mb heights suggest that a highly amplified ridge is likely to persist through the end of the month if not the beginning of February.
Southeasterly flow around high pressure well out in the Atlantic Ocean will continue to bring warm moist air into the area through the week.
An upper trof axis, with embedded PV maxes, is approaching from the west. Lift ahead of this trough is already producing scattered showers across northwest and north-central OK this evening. The stronger piece of energy near the base of the trough was moving thru the Big Bend region of TX early this evening.
Fog will develop area-wide, though the lowest visibilities are most likely across western Oklahoma.
- Drizzle/freezing drizzle at times tonight before additional rain moves in Thursday into early Thursday night.
137 PM PST Wed Jan 24 2024 A low pressure system will move through the Great Basin tonight into early Thursday.
Thursday night as trough energy exits east into Utah, brief high pressure will build into NV from the west.
521 PM CST Wed Jan 24 2024 (This evening through Thursday night) Upper level circulation over the South Plains of Texas will continue to weaken into an open trough as it moves across the Texas Panhandle this evening. Dense fog is expected to develop across much of the Panhandles again this evening as south and southeast surface winds keep the low level moisture across the region.