Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
While the theta-e advection will move slowly east today, high pressure over the state will prolong the time of saturation. The light showers over eastern Minnesota should fade as they approach Iowa, again due to the high pressure and attendant dry air in place. Cloud cover over the far west and northeast may limit high temperatures today otherwise a little warmer today. Upper level pattern continues to feature a closed low over eastern Canada with troughing in the eastern U. and ridging over the western U. As such, main forecast concerns in the short term are temperatures with bias corrected guidance still 3-5 degrees or more warmer than raw model guidance due to recent warmer temperatures skewing the bias corrected data.
654 AM EDT Tue Aug 26 2025 High pressure remains in control through much of the week. Cooler and drier airmass will keep below normal temperatures and lower humidity around as a result. As of 123 AM EDT Tuesday: Broad cyclonic flow aloft and anomalously cooler thickness will remain in place through the forecast period.
To start out the day, anomalous moisture around 200% of normal will remain over the forecast area from southerly flow and monsoonal moisture advection due to our proximity to the Four Corners area of high pressure. Convection will initially favor the higher terrain before pushing westward into nearby valley locations. Clouds are expected to break up from south to north this morning, with new thunderstorms developing over the higher terrain around noon.
These clouds helped keep temps significantly warmer than they would have been with 08z temps in tdhe mid 50s in the cloud areas. Should turn out pretty sunny today and warmer with highs. This will bring a cold front southward with main impacts temp wise and precip chances to our east, with western edge of shower chances over the far northeast late tonight into Wed.
To start out the day, anomalous moisture around 200% of normal will remain over the forecast area from southerly flow and monsoonal moisture advection due to our proximity to the Four Corners area of high pressure. Convection will initially favor the higher terrain before pushing westward into nearby valley locations. Elsewhere a few showers are possible, mainly over the higher terrain overnight, but little impacts to the other TAF sites.
This will give us yet another reinforcing push of dry, cooler air into the area. Again, the blend is leaning towards the lower end of the guidance (sitting near the 25th percentile of model output), so under the right conditions we might end up a bit lower.
650 AM EDT Tue Aug 26 2025 A noticeably cooler air mass will linger through midweek, with spotty lake enhanced rain showers at times, especially in Central New York.
654 AM CDT Tue Aug 26 2025 - Cooler, below normal temperatures continue through the week - Patchy fog this morning - Slight chances for showers and thunderstorms through the week Low level moisture and light wind under 5 mph will lead to fog development this morning across southwest and western Nebraska. Northwesterly flow will continue to keep temperatures cooler in the upper 70s to low 80s which is still around 5 to 10 degrees below normal across southwest Nebraska and the southern Sandhills. Monsoonal moisture will advect into the High Plains and this combined with weak disturbances through the week will allow slight chances for showers and thunderstorms through the end of the week. Cooler temperatures will continue through the weekend with highs only in the 70s to low 80s.
Slightly below normal high temperatures today and Wednesday then trending warmer into this upcoming weekend. For today, lingering upper level trofiness will bring a good chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms. Highs will run several degrees below normal Southwest flow aloft will be over the area for the remainder of the work week with upper ridge to our east-southeast.
1054 AM EDT Tue Aug 26 2025 A weak secondary cold front pivots through late this afternoon, before high pressure gradually builds in through midweek.
636 AM CDT Tue Aug 26 2025 - Another day with isolated showers and sprinkles possible - Better chances for rain arrive Wednesday as a cold front drops in from the north.
This, along with the drier airmass over the area, will result in at to below average highs as they range from the upper 70s in the north along the Highway 82 corridor to the lower 90s in the south along the Highway 84 corridor this afternoon. /19/ The main weather story this week is the anomalously amplified eastern CONUS trough and the long duration of cooler and eventually unsettled weather it will bring.
1022 AM EDT Tue Aug 26 2025 A strong dome of Canadian high pressure will build through mid week with near to below normal temperatures for much of the week.
Aloft, upper troughing over the eastern CONUS continues to keep seasonably cool air in place. A slight NW breeze around 10-15 mph with slightly higher gusts at times should also help keep temperatures cooler. Look for highs in the low-mid 70s again today. Deep troughing over the Midwestern US will continue to promote unseasonably cool conditions through the forecast period.
723 AM EDT Tue Aug 26 2025 High pressure over the region will keep it dry and cooler into the first half of this weekend. High pressure and upper level troughing over the eastern conus will allow for mostly clear skies and cooler than average temperatures again on Tuesday as cold air advection and dry air continue to push into the region out of the northwest. Some stratocumulus and high cirrus clouds rounding the base of the trough moving over the region can't be ruled out on Tuesday. Temperatures will generally start in the upper 40s to low 50s west of the Blue Ridge, and mid 50s east of the Blue Ridge this morning. High temperatures look to climb into the upper 60s to low 70s west of the Blue Ridge, and mid to upper 70s east of the Blue Ridge.
703 AM EDT Tue Aug 26 2025 High pressure will prevail through mid to late week. A weak area of low pressure could then pass nearby later this week into the first half of the weekend. A weak cold front will slide east of the nearshore coastal waters early this morning. In the wake of the cold front, high pressure centered near the mid-Mississippi valley will gradually build east across the forecast area. A few of the typically cooler inland spots could even fall into the lower 60s.
728 AM EDT Tue Aug 26 2025 Cooler conditions and additional chances for diurnally driven showers will continue through much of the week as an upper level trough gradually shifts eastward across the region.
Slightly below normal high temperatures today and Wednesday then trending warmer into this upcoming weekend. Lingering upper level trofiness has supported isolated shower and thunderstorm development across portions of southeast Arizona this afternoon. Highs today will be running several degrees below normal topping out in the low 90s in Tucson. Southwest flow aloft will be over the area for the remainder of the work week with an upper ridge to our east-southeast.
It will bring noticeably cooler and less humid conditions for the rest of the week. Cooler and dry today and tonight. A large cool and dry high pressure will build into the region from the Midwest today.
Tonight, next disturbance will come out of Colorado, but will be somewhat dampened as it encounters a ridge axis over the central plains. on the eastern periphery of a deamplifying ridge over the 4-Corners and northern Rockies. and southwestern periphery of a broad upper level trough /cyclonic flow aloft/ over the eastern CONUS. on the western periphery of a modest surface to 850 mb high/ridge over central-eastern KS-NE (per 19Z SPC mesoanalysis data). Tuesday: A blocked synoptic pattern broadly characterized by ridging aloft over the western CONUS and troughing /cyclonic flow aloft/ over the eastern CONUS will persist into Tuesday. expect conditions similar to, albeit warmer, than today.
919 AM EDT Tue Aug 26 2025 A weak secondary cold front pivots through late this afternoon, before high pressure gradually builds in through midweek.
610 AM CDT Tue Aug 26 2025 (Today through Wednesday) Cooler and drier weather is anticipated through the next couple of days.
- Cooler temperatures, increased humidity, and measurable rainfall is expected for the next few days.
For this evening and tonight, expect the low clouds to continue to erode, though portions of southwest Nebraska will likely struggle to see sunshine today. Highs here will struggle to climb into the low 70s, with lower 80s further north. By late tomorrow afternoon, scattered thunderstorm development is expected along the high terrain of eastern WY.
1226 PM CDT Tue Aug 26 2025 - Cooler, below normal temperatures continue through the week - Patchy fog this morning - Slight chances for showers and thunderstorms through the week Low level moisture and light wind under 5 mph will lead to fog development this morning across southwest and western Nebraska. Northwesterly flow will continue to keep temperatures cooler in the upper 70s to low 80s which is still around 5 to 10 degrees below normal across southwest Nebraska and the southern Sandhills. Monsoonal moisture will advect into the High Plains and this combined with weak disturbances through the week will allow slight chances for showers and thunderstorms through the end of the week. Cooler temperatures will continue through the weekend with highs only in the 70s to low 80s.
1224 PM CDT Tue Aug 26 2025 - Another day with isolated showers and sprinkles possible - Better chances for rain arrive Wednesday as a cold front drops in from the north.
344 PM EDT Tue Aug 26 2025 A weak cold front moves east of the region early this evening.
209 PM EDT Tue Aug 26 2025 Dry, cool high pressure is moving into the Southeast today bringing fall-like conditions to the forecast area.
148 PM EDT Tue Aug 26 2025 A noticeably cooler air mass will linger through midweek, with spotty lake enhanced rain showers at times, especially in Central New York.
130 PM MDT Tue Aug 26 2025 KEY MESSAGES: - Dry weather with warmer temperatures continue through Wednesday.
Expect another pleasant day with highs in the lower to upper 70s east of I-65 and in the upper 70s to lower 80s west. It'll also continue to feel less muggy as dew points in the lower 50s are anticipated this afternoon due to sufficient mixing. This will aid in radiational cooling and, combined with CAA from the northwest, will result in low temperatures dipping into the lower to mid 50s for most locations. Some spots, especially near rivers and bodies of water, may be a bit warmer (in the mid to upper 50s).
102 PM EDT Tue Aug 26 2025 High pressure will prevail through mid to late week. A weak area of low pressure could then pass nearby later this week into the first half of the weekend. Taking a step outside confirms the rather pleasant conditions behind a cold front that passed through overnight, with the biggest risk being too much sunshine as the UV index climbs into the upper single digits. A few of the typically cooler inland spots could even fall into the low 60s.
146 PM EDT Tue Aug 26 2025 Cooler conditions and additional chances for diurnally driven showers will continue through much of the week as an upper level trough gradually shifts eastward across the region.
There was a cloud line near sunrise that did produce some showers near the Lower Keys, along with a few waterspouts near Key West, but that activity has since dissipated. From synopsis, an early season Canadian high pressure system will continue to traverse across the eastern United States over the next few days. As the high moves into the Atlantic late week and over the weekend, breezes will shift to the east to southeast and slacken.
(This evening through Wednesday night) The main H500 high pressure system in the latest 18Z satellite analysis shows drier air under the main high move east-northeast towards the Texas Panhandle. The far northern TX Panhandle and the OK Panhandle may still experience a period of rain later this evening into tonight as moisture flow on the periphery of the high may reach these areas later tonight. The influence of aforementioned high pressure system will continue to drift NNW tomorrow, which should confine rain chances with storms developing over the mountains tomorrow afternoon to the far northern combined Panhandles.
To start out the day, anomalous moisture around 200% of normal will remain over the forecast area from southerly flow and monsoonal moisture advection due to our proximity to the Four Corners area of high pressure. Convection will initially favor the higher terrain before pushing eastward into nearby valley locations. While initially, storms will be focused across the higher terrain, outflow boundaries are expected to generate additional storms in the Las Vegas Valley, with frequent lightning, erratic gusty outflow winds to 30-40KT, and heavy rainfall all possible. Initially, storms will generally be focused across the higher terrain, and outflow boundaries will help to generate storms across lower elevations. Storm activity will diminish and move from west to east through late evening, with less confidence in thunderstorm-related impacts further south toward the Lower Colorado River Valley/KEED and into northwestern Arizona.
238 PM EDT Tue Aug 26 2025 An upper trough will remain over the region through Wednesday.
The cooler temperatures to the north from the rain and associated cloud cover will continue into the overnight hours, allowing lows in the low to mid 60s in OK/AR. One difference to today will be the warmer temperatures expected. There is also a warm front moving into the region from central Texas through the day on Wednesday, which will warm the rest of the region back into the low 90s.
Tomorrow, the cold front will push further south, making conditions drier with N/NE winds outside of SWFL.
239 PM EDT Tue Aug 26 2025 A weak cold front moves east of the region early this evening.
Surface obs showed high pressure centered over IA and northern MO with relatively dry air in place across the forecast area.
Tonight, an upper trough over the eastern CONUS is keeping northwest flow over the Lower Ohio Valley.
This will aid in radiational cooling and, combined with CAA from the northwest, will result in low temperatures dipping into the lower to mid 50s for most locations. Some spots, especially near rivers and bodies of water, may be a bit warmer (in the mid to upper 50s).
137 PM EDT Tue Aug 26 2025 A weak secondary cold front pivots through late this afternoon, before high pressure gradually builds in through midweek.
257 PM EDT Tue Aug 26 2025 A trough will exit to the east by Wednesday, allowing high pressure to briefly build into the region through Wednesday night.
107 PM EDT Tue Aug 26 2025 A seasonably strong trough will persist to our north and bring scattered showers Tuesday afternoon.
Slightly below normal high temperatures today and Wednesday then trending warmer into this upcoming weekend. Isolated instances of flash flooding cannot be ruled out given the higher precipitable water content currently in place (1. For today, lingering upper level trofiness will bring a good chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms. Highs will run several degrees below normal Southwest flow aloft will be over the area for the remainder of the work week with upper ridge to our east-southeast.
There is a slight (15-40 percent) risk of excessive rainfall in the higher elevations of the Sierra Nevada and a marginal (5-15 percent) risk of excessive rainfall in the foothills from these thunderstorms. The cooldown continues tomorrow through the week as the axis of the ridge over the Four Corners shifts leading to a change in the upper level flow.
While a few lingering showers/sprinkles will remain possible there early this evening, an overall quiet and pleasantly cooler night is expected across the CWA as lows fall into the upper 50s to around 70 with some high clouds lingering across the region. High pressure will remain wedged into the region from the north, with northwest flow aloft also persisting across the forecast area.
Cool, dry air will remain filtering into the region, with the second reinforcing cold front still anticipated to move through on Wednesday. Overnight lows will remain in the upper-50s and low-60s, with highs tomorrow ranging in the low to upper-80s.
on the eastern periphery of a deamplifying ridge progressing slowly east across the Rockies. and southwestern fringe of a broad upper level trough /cyclonic flow aloft/ over the eastern CONUS. on the western periphery of a modest surface to 850 mb high/ridge centered over central-eastern Kansas (per 19Z SPC mesoanalysis data). Guidance suggests that low-level warm advection on the eastern periphery of a modest lee cyclone (prognosticated to develop in central- southern CO Wednesday morning). though a shallow cool/stable airmass may persist over portions of the Goodland county warning area (as the aforementioned lee cyclone in southeast CO and southwest KS slowly shifts southward into the OK-TX Panhandle).
Deep South Texas remains in a favorable set up for low to medium (30-50%) precipitation chances this afternoon and low (20-30%) precipitation Wednesday afternoon as mid/upper level high pressure remains over Central Texas.
These clouds helped keep temps significantly warmer than they would have been with 08z temps in td mid 50s in the cloud areas. Should turn out pretty sunny today and warmer with highs. This will bring a cold front southward with main impacts temp wise and precip chances to our east, with western edge of shower chances over the far northeast late tonight into Wed.
(Now through Wednesday Night) Remaining in the northeast periphery of the upper ridge over Texas, our area remains under dry northwesterly flow. This will help transition winds to an easterly direction and with slightly lower heights/thicknesses, expect temperatures to be just a skosh cooler generally around average for this time of year.
- Temperatures will trend cooler this week thanks to rain and cloud cover. The plume of moisture begins to get pulled northwards tomorrow with a deep ridge building through Wyoming, Montana, and into Canada.
- More widespread showers expected late tonight into Wednesday with a cold front. - Cooler and fall like conditions continue after the cold front passes.
1227 PM CDT Tue Aug 26 2025 The main weather story this week is the anomalously amplified eastern CONUS trough and the long duration of cooler and eventually unsettled weather it will bring.
But, the upper ridge will keep the PacNW relatively warm through tomorrow. Haze may linger across the lowlands through overnight, mainly due to the plumes of smoke from the fires over northern Idaho. However based on recent model guidance, the forecast area may have more of widespread showers with less likely (<20%) for thunderstorms over the lowlands tomorrow.
So far as of 1pm there have been some buildups from the ridges of the eastern San Gabriels and north into the Antelope Valley but nothing substantial. Otherwise, today saw a rejuvenated 2000' marine layer that easily returned to the valleys and was a big reason why temperatures today were 5-10 degrees cooler in most areas south of Pt Conception. Expecting a similar or possible slightly lower marine layer depth Wednesday, again pushing into most of the lower valleys. Temperatures are expected be similar to slightly warmer than today.
726 PM EDT Tue Aug 26 2025 An upper trough will remain over the region tonight through Wednesday.
755 PM EDT Tue Aug 26 2025 Cooler and drier weather will take place during the rest of this week as high pressure settles across the Appalachian Mountains.
727 PM EDT Tue Aug 26 2025 Dry and cool conditions are expected for the forecast area tonight courtesy of high pressure.
Weak troughing off the Atlantic Seaboard is responsible for a rather weak wind field across the Keys and surrounding waters this evening. Weak Atlantic ridging does stretch westward across our area through the lower levels while a hint of ridging is evident through the mid and upper levels. The steering flow has been light out of the northeast to east and was conducive to an earlier round of island cloud line convection in the Lower Keys. The trough off the Atlantic Coast will shift northeastward through the night. Expect overnight lows in the lower to mid 80s with dew points in the mid to upper 70s. This is due weak troughing off the Atlantic Seaboard.
726 PM EDT Tue Aug 26 2025 High pressure will prevail through mid to late week. A weak area of low pressure could then pass nearby later this week into the first half of the weekend. A few of the typically cooler inland spots could even fall into the low 60s.
Afterwards, a drier pattern will return where only isolated activity will remain across the higher terrain. Starting tomorrow, thunderstorm activity will be more scattered as a West Coast trough begins to move onshore. Same story for the rest of the week as drying continues but residue moisture will be enough to fire a few isolated thunderstorms, mainly over the eastern half of the state, but not so much over the western half except over the highest terrain.
504 PM EDT Tue Aug 26 2025 An upper trough will remain over the region through Wednesday.
634 PM CDT Tue Aug 26 2025 (Now through Wednesday Night) Remaining in the northeast periphery of the upper ridge over Texas, our area remains under dry northwesterly flow. This will help transition winds to an easterly direction and with slightly lower heights/thicknesses, expect temperatures to be just a skosh cooler generally around average for this time of year.
625 PM CDT Tue Aug 26 2025 Deep South Texas remains in a favorable set up for low to medium (30-50%) precipitation chances this afternoon and low (20-30%) precipitation Wednesday afternoon as mid/upper level high pressure remains over Central Texas.
- A cold front will track through the region Thursday gradually cooling temperatures through Labor Day weekend. For the upper levels, upper ridging has set up over most of Texas bringing zonal flow aloft.
Highs today will range from the mid 80s north to the low 90s in the south. Overnight lows will range from the low 60s to around 70.
The synoptic pattern remains virtually unchanged with an upper-level high pressure system over Texas and a deep trough situated over the eastern Great Lakes region.
1231 AM EDT Wed Aug 27 2025 High pressure will prevail to our north through Thursday, then shift offshore. A few of the typically cooler inland spots could even fall into the low 60s.
118 AM EDT Wed Aug 27 2025 A trough will exit to the east by Wednesday, allowing high pressure to briefly build into the region through Wednesday night.
- Cooler temperatures, increased humidity, and measurable rainfall is expected for the next few days. - Drier and gradually warming as we move towards the holiday weekend A low pressure system will move northward today across western Idaho. The high res models show most of the convection diminishing this evening.
(Tonight through Thursday night) Persistent east coast trough will remain in place through the period, with multiple disturbances moving around it. First disturbance will cause the old frontal boundary to pull back northward as a warm front by late Thursday.
356 AM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025 Forecast discussion for routine morning forecast issuance - Showers and a few thunderstorms move across the area along a cold front late this evening and overnight. The main focus is on a cold front coming through Wisconsin tonight, and temperatures approaching freezing Thursday night. Readings will be warmer today (highs in the low to mid-70s) as west winds drive in a small wedge of warmer air.
This was providing for cooler temperatures and generally light winds across the Ozarks today. Thanks to the high pressure and drier air, cloud cover should remain limited through tonight and cooler than seasonable temperatures will remain over the area again tonight. A few models and the edge (<5%) of the probabilities show a potential for around 6 inches in some locations, though this high end amount has low probabilities.