Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
In its wake, 850mb thermal trof of 3 to 5C across eastern Lake Superior per latest RAP analysis overtop 14-19C sfc waters is supporting some lake aided -shra into the eastern fcst area under nw low-level flow.
Ridging will be sticking around in south Florida through mid week.
Precipitation chances return for the end of the week as a low pressure system approaches the area. Those at higher elevations will stay in the lower 70s. Conditions tonight will be favorable for radiational cooling with reduced cloud cover and light winds, leading to cooler temperatures. Overnight low temperatures will dip into the 60s for most, with those west of the Blue Ridge getting into the 50s.
851 PM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024 Another unseasonably cool night is unfolding across Middle TN with temperatures forecast to drop into the low to mid 60s tonight. Temperatures will warm up a touch tomorrow with highs in the upper 80s, but humidity will still be on the lower side. The lower humidity coupled with increased cloud cover will make it feel cooler than it is actually is. Monday looks only slightly warmer than today with highs in the 80s, but considerable cloud cover will make it feel not quite as warm. (Monday Night through next Sunday) Unfortunately all good things much come to an end, and warmer and more humid conditions will return for the rest of the week as an upper level ridge builds across the southern Plains and Gulf Coast.
Some spots may be able to drop into the low 70s, particularly in the more rural parts of east central Florida.
Given the highest rainfall amounts may be confined to a few counties, opted to not issue a flash flood watch at this time.
628 PM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024 (This evening through Monday) The upper high that has been overhead for the past several days will continue to dominate the region tonight and tomorrow. Convection will be possible once again across the Texas Panhandle during the late evening and overnight hours from another weak disturbance moving across the northern edge of the upper high. The upper high is progged to shift slightly eastward tomorrow. While conditions will remain hot and dry due to the upper high, the shift may be enough to prevent Heat Advisory level temps across our eastern zones tomorrow afternoon.
1040 PM EDT Sun Aug 11 2024 A trough of low pressure will be in the vicinity through Monday night. Weak high pressure will otherwise be in control for much of the week. Blended in the cooler MAV/MET guidance to achieve this. A broad upper level trough gets anchored just to the east providing a prevailing NW to N flow throughout much of the column through mid week. A second area of mid level troughiness forms over the Great Lakes late in the week and pushes into the area towards the weekend.
633 PM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024 (Tonight through Monday night) High pressure in the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere remains the dominant weather feature across south central Texas through the next couple of days.
219 PM PDT Sun Aug 11 2024 Cooler temperatures and increasing humidity, with periods of breezy onshore winds this week. For much of interior NorCal, current temperature observations are trending approximately 2 to 5 degrees cooler than this time yesterday afternoon, valid at 215 PM PDT. The Delta area is observing a more noticeable temperature difference, around 12 degrees cooler than 24 hours ago at Fairfield/Travis AFB. High pressure will weaken across the region as the influence of upper level troughing increases.
849 PM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024 Upstream satellite view depicts a few mesoscale perturbations traveling along the eastern side of an upper level ridge over the central CONUS. A gradual transition to a warmer and more unsettled weather pattern as we move through the upcoming week.
639 PM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024 - Scattered showers and thunderstorms expected tonight, with a small chance for a strong to marginally severe storm west of a line extending from Cambridge to Ord.
Another September-like evening with low humidity and mild temperatures, as readings have dropped into the 60s in quite a few rural areas, and the lower/mid 70s even in the warmest spots. This evening, high pressure will be overhead, allowing calm to light winds, and mostly clear skies. Broad ridging centered over the southern CONUS will continue to amplify, placing the Ohio Valley on the periphery of the ridging. Otherwise, temperatures will be about 1-2 degrees warmer than Sunday, in the low 80s.
From synopsis, the Atlantic ridge axis continues to extend north of the Keys coastal waters.
With more sunshine on Monday over the forecast area, high temps should climb into the low to mid 90s most areas, upper 80s NW AR.
Weak high pressure will build in from the north during the middle of the week and prevail into the latter part of the week.
625 PM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024 A gradual transition to a warmer and more unsettled weather pattern as we move through the upcoming week.
720 PM EDT Sun Aug 11 2024 High pressure will remain across the region through the middle of the week. A number of the high resolution runs suggest that there will be echoes with some relatively stronger elements within that. With the clouds lingering into Monday night, lows will be warmer as well with readings in the upper 50s and lower 60s.
749 PM EDT Sun Aug 11 2024 An upper low will keep scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms in the forecast through Monday with temperatures running a below seasonal averages.
1007 PM EDT Sun Aug 11 2024 An upper low will keep scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms in the forecast through Monday with temperatures running a below seasonal averages.
722 PM EDT Sun Aug 11 2024 High pressure provides dry, cooler weather through early portion of the week.
938 PM EDT Sun Aug 11 2024 High pressure dominates at the surface this week while several upper troughs pass through the region from time to time. High pressure prevails tonight, with clear to partly cloudy skies and with lower dew points and lighter winds, some radiational cooling is expected in the more rural locations away from the waters.
649 PM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024 (This evening through Monday) Upper-level ridging will continue to build across West Central Texas into Monday, with hot and dry conditions returning to the area. An upper level ridge will continue to dominate the weather across West Central Texas.
753 PM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024 (Tonight through Monday night) Key Message: - Moderate to major heat risk continues today and tomorrow South Texas over the short term will be characterized by warm temperatures and partly cloudy conditions as we continue to be under the influence of high pressure aloft. Chances for showers/thunderstorms northeast increase to around 15-20% as an approaching weak inverted trough combines with moisture (PWAT's 1. Afternoon temperatures today and tomorrow will rise to the mid to upper 90s across much of the region with slightly cooler conditions along the coast due to onshore winds. Heat Advisory conditions are not expected to be met as the higher heat index values are not expected to persist long enough but will continue to monitor conditions.
1030 PM EDT Sun Aug 11 2024 High pressure provides dry, cooler weather through early portion of the week.
714 PM EDT Sun Aug 11 2024 A trough will drop southeast across the region tonight before high pressure builds in from the southwest Monday and Monday night. Low pressure approaches towards the end of this week. A longwave trough is digging into the northeast tonight into Monday. Daytime heating beneath the trough aloft is allowing scattered showers and storms from southern Ontario across Lake Erie into far northeast OH and northwest PA this afternoon. Base of the upper trough will be to the east of the local area by the start of the short term as an upper ridge begins to build over the Mississippi Valley.
High pressure and the departing trough and associated subsidence will bring mostly clear skies tonight. Overnight lows will be in the low to mid 50s. - Mostly dry through midweek, the rain chances increase The first part to the middle of the week looks pretty typical of August: partly cloudy, somewhat humid, and highs in the lower 80s. As the upper trough begins to slide east, the cooler temperatures will go with it and be replaced by ridging nosing into the Great Lakes. As we progress toward the end of the week, confidence is increasing that we'll see some troughing develop over the Great Lakes.
905 PM EDT Sun Aug 11 2024 High pressure will remain across the region through the middle of the week. A number of the high resolution runs suggest that there will be echoes with some relatively stronger elements within that. With the clouds lingering into Monday night, lows will be warmer as well with readings in the upper 50s and lower 60s.
641 PM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024 (This afternoon through Monday) A sunny sky, warm temperatures, and lower humidity values will be the theme through the short term period as high pressure maintains its grasp across the region with zonal flow aloft, and north to northwesterly flow in the low-levels. Conditions will be similar to yesterday except everyone gets to enjoy dewpoints in the lower to mid 60s due to the dry air over the state.
Precipitation chances return for the end of the week as a low pressure system approaches the area. Those at higher elevations will stay in the lower 70s. Conditions tonight will be favorable for radiational cooling with light winds, leading to cooler temperatures. Overnight low temperatures will dip into the 60s for most, with those west of the Blue Ridge getting into the 50s.
627 PM EDT Sun Aug 11 2024 Upper level low pressure will lead to rain showers and isolated thunderstorms over central New York this afternoon and tomorrow afternoon.
634 PM EDT Sun Aug 11 2024 High pressure dominates at the surface this week while several upper troughs pass through the region from time to time. High pressure prevails tonight, with clear to partly cloudy skies and with lower dew points and lighter winds, some radiational cooling is expected in the more rural locations away from the waters.
742 PM EDT Sun Aug 11 2024 A frontal boundary will continue to push slowly east offshore as high pressure noses in from the west. A trough passes through on Monday into Monday night, then weak high pressure will be in control for much of the week.
716 PM EDT Sun Aug 11 2024 Upper level low pressure will lead to rain showers and isolated thunderstorms over central New York this afternoon and tomorrow afternoon.
KEY MESSAGES: - Temperatures remain below seasonal averages - Mainly dry weather continues tonight ------------------------------------------------------------------- Much of the Upper Ohio Valley region remains under a ridge of high pressure at the surface, with a broad trough aloft. This should maintain mainly dry and cooler than average weather tonight. Dry air mixed down earlier in the day, and with lower dew points in place, lowered overnight lows toward the low end of guidance.
Upper short wave ridge moves east and a more moist southwesterly flow moves into southeast Idaho for several days.
224 AM EDT Mon Aug 12 2024 A trough of low pressure will be in the vicinity through tonight. Weak high pressure will otherwise be in control for much of the week. Blended in the cooler MAV/MET guidance to achieve this. A broad upper level trough gets anchored just to the east providing a prevailing NW to N flow throughout much of the column through mid week. A second area of mid level troughiness forms over the Great Lakes late in the week and pushes into the area towards the weekend.
1241 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 (This evening through Monday) Upper-level ridging will continue to build across West Central Texas into Monday, with hot and dry conditions returning to the area. An upper level ridge will continue to dominate the weather across West Central Texas.
1221 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 (Tonight through Monday night) High pressure in the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere remains the dominant weather feature across south central Texas through the next couple of days.
The area will remain under northwest flow aloft and high pressure will be the main player at the surface.
At the surface, light NNE flow this evening will become light/variable during the early morning hours as a ridge builds further eastward into the Central OH Valley, but the combination of clouds and slightly higher dewpoints will yield warmer overnight lows in the 62-66F range.
Temperatures in deeper valleys have dropped off to near the 60 degree mark, with mid to upper 60s reported on the ridges. An upper level low over southern Quebec will weaken and lift out to the northeast during the short term period. However, general, broad troughing will linger over much of the eastern CONUS, with west northwest flow aloft over our area. At the surface, a persistent high and/or ridging will be just to our north and northwest.
147 AM EDT Mon Aug 12 2024 High pressure starts the work week dry and cool. High pressure west of the area overnight erodes Monday, in response to an approaching mid/upper-level short wave trough. That trough will bring increasing cloud Monday night, and may be able to squeeze out light rain showers over southern portions of the area as it crosses overnight Monday night. With lowland highs in the lower to mid 80s, these low dew points for August spell afternoon relative humidity percentages down into the 30s, and even the 20s in portions of the area. Together with very dry brush wherever it has not rained in some time, this raises concerns for wildland fire potential, but one mitigating factor will be the light winds amid eroding high pressure.
1138 PM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024 (This evening through Monday night) High pressure will continue to dominate the weather pattern for the next couple of days.
The forecast remains on track with current temperatures roughly 5-15 degrees cooler than this time yesterday. Further inland, some high clouds are present from the old remnants of tropical cyclones being advected by the subtropical jet. (This evening through Monday) A developing trough over open water to our west will continue to deepen and approach the California central coast tonight and tomorrow. Temperatures inland today are running approximately five degrees cooler than yesterday, and will be about another five degrees cooler tomorrow as H50 height falls and decreasing thickness values coincide with the deepening trough overhead by tomorrow evening.
1123 PM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024 Upstream satellite view depicts a few mesoscale perturbations traveling along the eastern side of an upper level ridge over the central CONUS. A gradual transition to a warmer and more unsettled weather pattern as we move through the upcoming week.
Areas north of I-40 will see a weak cold front that will help keep heat indices below heat advisory criteria.
1249 AM PDT Mon Aug 12 2024 Cooler temperatures and increasing humidity, with periods of breezy onshore winds this week. Temperatures as of midnight were already in the low to mid 60s in the greater Sacramento metropolitan area, and are expected to get into the high 50s in areas later in the early morning. Highs in the area will range in the mid 80s to the low 90s in the Valley, with mid 60s to the mid 80s at higher elevations.
316 AM EDT Mon Aug 12 2024 An upper level trough will move into northern Maine Monday morning and will slowly move east.
1238 AM EDT Mon Aug 12 2024 An upper low will keep scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms in the forecast through Monday with temperatures running a below seasonal averages.
Water vapor imagery and RAP analysis show troffing over se Canada/New England into the Great Lakes region. Upper MI is on the far western fringe of the trof now with a region of very light/vrbl flow in the mid levels just to the w. At the sfc, high pres ridge extends from the Canadian Prairies to the Ohio Valley, and it is close enough to result in quiet conditions with light to calm winds across Upper MI early this morning.
143 AM EDT Mon Aug 12 2024 High pressure will remain across the region through the middle of the week. A number of the high resolution runs suggest that there will be echoes with some relatively stronger elements within that. With the clouds lingering into Monday night, lows will be warmer as well with readings in the upper 50s and lower 60s.
1204 AM EDT Mon Aug 12 2024 High pressure dominates at the surface this week while several upper troughs pass through the region from time to time. High pressure centered to our west prevails overnight. Generally expect morning lows ranging from the 50s over these cooler areas as well as in the north to the low to mid 60s near the coast, Delmarva, and the urban centers. Any showers quickly die down in the evening as high pressure re- establishes itself over the area bringing mainly clear skies and light winds.
1206 AM EDT Mon Aug 12 2024 Weak high pressure will build east overnight. An upper level trough will move into northern Maine Monday morning and will slowly move east.
1237 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 (This evening through Monday) The upper high that has been overhead for the past several days will continue to dominate the region tonight and tomorrow. Convection will be possible once again across the Texas Panhandle during the late evening and overnight hours from another weak disturbance moving across the northern edge of the upper high. The upper high is progged to shift slightly eastward tomorrow. While conditions will remain hot and dry due to the upper high, the shift may be enough to prevent Heat Advisory level temps across our eastern zones tomorrow afternoon.
1153 PM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024 Another unseasonably cool night is unfolding across Middle TN with temperatures forecast to drop into the low to mid 60s tonight. Temperatures will warm up a touch tomorrow with highs in the upper 80s, but humidity will still be on the lower side. The lower humidity coupled with increased cloud cover will make it feel cooler than it is actually is. Monday looks only slightly warmer than today with highs in the 80s, but considerable cloud cover will make it feel not quite as warm. (Monday Night through next Sunday) Unfortunately all good things much come to an end, and warmer and more humid conditions will return for the rest of the week as an upper level ridge builds across the southern Plains and Gulf Coast.
309 AM EDT Mon Aug 12 2024 - Warmer temperatures through this week. Warmer and mainly dry today. Last vestiges of the strong upper level trough axis continues to exit eastward away from Michigan early this morning. as broad low level ridging builds into the Western Great Lakes region. High pressure will remain centered over the Western Great Lakes today and tonight. PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: Upper trough starting to open up and depart the Upper Great Lakes; northerly flow on the backside of this into northern Michigan. Most of the activity and deeper moisture over the southern US/eastern Seaboard; moisture has wrapped around the southern stream ridge into northern TX/OK, where a boundary resides that connects to aforementioned eastern seaboard moisture pooling/BCZ. Expecting upper trough to continue to depart.
We may see a bit more sunshine this afternoon than we did Sunday, but confidence is low given the high moisture content.
High pressure will remain in control with near normal temperatures and very little chance of widespread rain. Upper trof remains overhead today however. As skies gradually clear the typical low spots will see radiational cooling bring readings down into the low 50s across the north. Return flow will allow for warmer temps Tue. Details: Upper troughing remains as surface ridging builds into the eastern CONUS.
Upper level troughing over the region will promote onshore flow and cooler temperatures the next several days.
1240 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 - Scattered showers and thunderstorms expected tonight, with a small chance for a strong to marginally severe storm west of a line extending from Cambridge to Ord.
434 AM EDT Mon Aug 12 2024 Upper level low pressure will lead to rain showers and isolated thunderstorms through this afternoon.
At the upper- levels, a 595dam ridge is located across northern Texas. An upper level ridge will continue to dominate the weather across West Central Texas.
1259 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 (This afternoon through Monday) A sunny sky, warm temperatures, and lower humidity values will be the theme through the short term period as high pressure maintains its grasp across the region with zonal flow aloft, and north to northwesterly flow in the low-levels. Conditions will be similar to yesterday except everyone gets to enjoy dewpoints in the lower to mid 60s due to the dry air over the state.
147 AM EDT Mon Aug 12 2024 An upper low will keep scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms in the forecast through Monday with temperatures running a below seasonal averages.
At the upper- levels, a 595dam ridge is located across northern Texas.
With easterly upslope winds today, temperatures were trended downward slightly but with dewpoint temperatures expected to rise into the low to mid 70s, heat indices may climb above the century mark, especially over southern KS. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop across the High Plains of eastern Colorado late this afternoon and evening.
Weak high pressure will otherwise be in control through the week. The main weather feature today will be an upper level trough that pivots through the northeast this afternoon and evening. Cold pool aloft will help steepen lapse rates, but instability is weak and mostly below the freezing level.
1037 PM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024 (Tonight through Monday night) Key Message: - Moderate to major heat risk continues today and tomorrow South Texas over the short term will be characterized by warm temperatures and partly cloudy conditions as we continue to be under the influence of high pressure aloft. Chances for showers/thunderstorms northeast increase to around 15-20% as an approaching weak inverted trough combines with moisture (PWAT's 1. Afternoon temperatures today and tomorrow will rise to the mid to upper 90s across much of the region with slightly cooler conditions along the coast due to onshore winds. Heat Advisory conditions are not expected to be met as the higher heat index values are not expected to persist long enough but will continue to monitor conditions.
637 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 (Monday through Tuesday) Upper-air analysis from this morning continues to show ridging across the southwest CONUS with an area of low pressure across the northeast CONUS. Meanwhile, surface analysis shows a stalled out frontal boundary just to the south of our area that will gradually lift back through our region as a warm front on Tuesday. Being on the peripheral of the ridge, portions of our northern zones remain under the influence of northwest flow aloft.
This is the result of some enhanced convergence in this area, combined with the cooler and slightly unstable conditions remaining under the upper trough.
Low level southwest flow remains ~5-10 knots in the low levels north of the Atlantic ridge. Highs will reach the lower to mid 90s with heat indices reaching 104 to 107 this afternoon before rain cooled air lowers the heat index values for some areas. Generally favorable boating conditions as the Atlantic ridge axis remains across the local waters through mid week.
652 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 (Today through Tuesday) Today will be similar in some respects to yesterday for high temperatures, but mainly a degree or so warmer. We should keep the lower dew points around during the short term with NRLY low level flow remaining in place. We could see some periodic high clouds at times as the flat upper ridge across the SRN US transitions to a weak NW flow into the SE US. This will result as an upper low over Quebec digs and treks across New England through the short term.
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: The western upper ridge will slide east and amplify over the next few days. FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: There is moderate to high confidence of thunderstorms occurring the with trof passage Tuesday afternoon and night as steepening mid-level lapse rates and daytime heating support moderate instability.