Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
209 PM EDT Thu Jun 13 2024 High pressure remains in the area through tonight. A front tracks through the mid-Atlantic Friday, before high pressure works in again for the weekend. Looks like a case where a few storms pop up this afternoon along/near the Blue Ridge, then shift east into the foothills/piedmont by later in the day. At the moment, the models in general agreement in meager storm chances so kept pops on the low side, with widely scattered coverage by late afternoon over the mountains/foothills. Upper and sfc ridging is progged to build into the area in the wake of the near term fropa. The subsident airmass should allow for mostly dry and warmer conditions for the weekend.
Wait and see mode right now with incoming surface cold front set to cross the area from north to south later this afternoon and evening. A break in thunderstorm chances is anticipated later this morning before additional scattered storms develop along/ahead of the aforementioned cold front this afternoon. Otherwise, temperatures looks to warm into the low to mid 80s for many areas south of the bridge today before the cold front swings through, dropping temperatures back into the upper 40s and low 50s tonight. Ridging currently over southwestern U. S will progress over upper Midwest at the start of the forecast period and build surface level high pressure. Attention quickly turns toward the start of the next work week as midlevel ridging strengthens across the eastern half of the U.
Subtropical ridging will build in over South Central Texas on Friday, effectively cutting off any rain chances for the region.
A weak low pressure system brings slightly cooler temperatures to the area as well as potential for precipitation in the Sierra and northwest Arizona today.
With moisture streaming in from the southwest ahead of a dry cold front, virga/showers have developed this afternoon and evening across the Southwest Highlands and portions of the Magic Valley. Northwest winds are on track to increase late this evening into Friday due to the strengthening surface pressure gradient with the cold front. High temperatures tomorrow will be roughly 10 degrees cooler than they were today.
/NEW/ /Through Friday/ The strong sub-tropical ridge anchored over the southern Rockies will continue to shift eastward over the next 24 hours while a weak upper low moves onshore near southern California. As it does, the upper level ridge (mentioned in the short term discussion above) will be shifted towards the Deep South in response. Over this upcoming week, North and Central Texas will find themselves between a trough and a high place. We'll continue to be located on the back edge of the eastern ridge through the week, with a longwave trough to our northwest.
(Rest of tonight) No significant changes were needed during the evening update as high pressure remains dominant and dry conditions continue over the Tennessee Valley.
Warm conditions in the 80s and 90s will come to an end over the weekend, as cooler weather returns. This afternoon the state will see two flow regimes converge across areas of Nevada, as a cutoff low to the south brings southwesterly flow to much of central Nevada, and some weak troughing to the north and west brings westerly winds across parts of northern Nevada. Tonight, the cutoff low will progress eastward resulting in weak troughing in its wake.
Quiet and dry conditions will continue tonight as surface ridging remains over the region.
Lows tonight will generally be in the low 70s to mid 60s.
Much drier conditions will develop tonight into Friday as ridging takes a hold aloft and with PWATs falling to below normal levels (~1. Overnight lows will range from the low to mid 70s inland to the low 80s along the coast. Highs tomorrow will be in the low 90s along the coast to near 102 degrees out west.
707 PM EDT Thu Jun 13 2024 (Through Friday) Upper level troughing will slowly give way to high pressure building in from the west. At the surface, high pressure builds which combined with the upper level trough, should lead to suppressed convection.
647 PM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024 (Tonight) An upper ridge over the Desert Southwest and southern Plains will begin to push eastward tonight.
822 PM EDT Thu Jun 13 2024 Dry high pressure remains over the area again Friday.
(This afternoon through Friday) Skies are partly to mostly sunny across the area today with early afternoon temperatures ranging from the mid 70s in the highest elevations of the NE to near 90 across the S third of the County Warning Area. Some lingering mid-level vorticity along with slightly cooler air aloft will generate a few showers across the NE mountains this afternoon and again Friday afternoon, but the remainder of the area should remain dry. Lows tonight will drop to near 60 in the highest elevations with mid to upper 60s elsewhere (perhaps closer to 70 in the Atlanta metro heat island). Low temperatures Friday night will range from the mid 60s in the NE mountains to the lower 70s elsewhere.
645 PM EDT Thu Jun 13 2024 A cold frontal passage on Friday will bring showers and a chance of strong to possibly severe thunderstorms. High pressure builds into the region with summer-like weather this weekend. A large high is off the coast which provided us with dry warmer weather today. The high is moving further southeast. A strong cold front over the upper Midwest and eastern Ontario moves southeast tonight to move through our area Friday and Friday evening. Friday night the upper level trough is moving east into the area with cold air aloft.
High pressure today will give way to a low pressure system this weekend. This low pressure system will be the next weather maker bringing showers, and southwesterly flow.
803 PM EDT Thu Jun 13 2024 High pressure remains in the area through tonight. A front tracks through the mid-Atlantic Friday, before high pressure works in again for the weekend. At the moment, the models in general agreement in meager storm chances so kept pops on the low side, with widely scattered coverage by late afternoon over the mountains/foothills. Upper and sfc ridging is progged to build into the area in the wake of the near term fropa. The subsident airmass should allow for mostly dry and warmer conditions for the weekend.
626 PM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024 (This evening through Friday night) Latest 18-19Z observational trends shows a sfc boundary in eastern New Mexico in-conjunction with a perturbation in the dirty H500 ridge centered over El Paso is resulting in some showers and thunderstorms beginning to develop in far NE New Mexico.
Low amplitude ridging centered from northern Mexico to the Central Plains will shift east over the next few days and deepen, blocking western flow and allowing southwest flow to amplify over the Northern Plains.
(Today through Saturday afternoon) WV imagery shows an upper trough over the junction of CA/AZ/Baja del Norte/Sonora this morning, deforming the upper ridge to the SSE. The trajectory of the trough will also result in isolated afternoon/evening convection over Southeast New Mexico and adjacent areas of West Texas. Tonight, a 40+kt LLJ is on track to develop, advecting rich Gulf moisture across the lower terrain. Saturday, with the upper trough to the east of the area, the ridge builds back in, increasing thicknesses and bringing highs back to where they were yesterday.
902 PM PDT Thu Jun 13 2024 Updated Aviation Discussion High pressure today will give way to a low pressure system this weekend. This low pressure system will be the next weather maker bringing showers, and southwesterly flow.
Light winds, cooler temperatures, and recent saturated soils may bring the chance for patchy fog. Current water vapor imagery reveals broad upper troughing over central Canada extending into the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes regions, with ridging in the western CONUS ahead of seasonably strong and broad upper troughing over the northeast Pacific. Within the base of upper troughing smaller mid level wave is noted moving into north- central Minnesota, and away from our area. Ensemble guidance is in good agreement of building upper ridging into the Northern Plains from the western CONUS on Friday, keeping conditions mostly dry at least through the afternoon. This is short lived, however, as the Pacific upper troughing also propagates east toward the northwestern CONUS and southwest CAN. Upper ridging also builds over the Ohio Valley into Great Lakes regions.
(Today through Saturday) A strong upper level ridge centered over western TX shifts eastward across the southern Plains today and settles over the Deep South Saturday. Highs today will be in the low to mid 90s, and then in the mid to upper 90s on Saturday.
121 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024 (Tonight through Saturday) A weak inverted trough was located just west of I-65 and was the length of Central Alabama. 75 Previous short-term discussion: (This afternoon through Friday) Heights are rising today in advance of a large 596dm ridge over the Desert Southwest. The ridge is progged to move eastward across Texas tomorrow producing a warm and dry north to northeast flow across Central Alabama. There is a small chance of a shower or storm this afternoon, mainly east of I-65, resulting from weak surface convergence associated with easterly surface flow from high pressure over the Mid-Atlantic region, but chances are generally less than 20 percent.
the dry conditions will continue tonight, with warmer overnight lows in the low 70s. /15/ Trends have been drier for this weekend as high pressure is slower to exit, thus increasing confidence on heat for the area Sat/Sun.
/20/ (This evening through Friday Night) Dry weather and gradually warming temperatures will continue to be the rule through the short-term period as upper-level ridging moves eastward across the Southern Plains and eventually directly over the ArkLaTex by daybreak Saturday.
The daytime hours should stay mostly dry on Saturday with temperatures rising into the low 90s for another day.
Upper level models show upper ridge sliding over the northern and central plains, while upper low sits over the southwestern CONUS. Ridging and associated high will allow for another warm day today, with highs generally in the 80s. As the high slides east of the forecast area, low level southerly flow moves in, increasing theta-e and moisture through the day. Models show increasing CAPE to 1000-2000 j/Kg this afternoon, with the highest CAPE values from northeastern WY into northwestern SD.
(Today and tonight) The benign pattern looks to continue for the short-term with longwave ridging extending northeast out of the Baja California region into Western Texas. Highs today will range from the lower 90s across our eastern counties to around 101 for western portions of the Concho Valley and Big Country. The "cooler" temperatures to the east will be due to higher dewpoints in the upper 60s to near 70 sticking around through the afternoon. Overnight lows will be similar to the past few nights in the low to mid 70s under mostly clear skies.
Friday will be a beautiful day despite a few afternoon clouds and highs nearing the low 80s.
344 AM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024 - A weak cold front brings a low chance (10-30%) for a shower or thunderstorm this afternoon through this evening.
Pattern Synopsis: Longwave troughing stretching from Hudson Bay down over the Great Lakes will continue to progress eastward today as the associated surface cyclone treks northeast across Quebec. Forecast Details: Sunny skies, mild temperatures today -- Quiet weather is in store for northern Michigan today and tonight as aforementioned high pressure builds into the region. North winds will advect cooler, drier air into the region today with sunny skies in place underneath subsidence aloft.
Yesterday evening's cold front has moved fully south across the area, and is now sitting across southeast Kansas. This will occur as easterly upslope flow over the High Plains develops evening convection that gradually shifts east across western into central Kansas. Can't rule out some brief gusty winds or small hail with any updraft that briefly pulses up, given 2500 J/kg of MUCAPE, but overall the severe weather risk appears on the low end. The upper low continues lifting northeast during the day Saturday as it becomes absorbed into the main flow.
Rainfall totals were greatest for the Lower Keys over the past 12-hours with values between 2 to 3". The most recent scans from the KBYX VWP suggest the veering southerly profile is returning as the low level ridge builds back.
After any fog dissipates, we're looking another decent day with afternoon highs in the low 90s, like today. The most likely result from the frontal passage is afternoon highs a degree or two cooler Saturday than we'll see today or tomorrow.
though a deg or two warmer possibly. Most areas should remain dry for Sat given an upper level high rotating overhead.
During the day today, temperatures will rise into the low to mid 90s across the area, with dew points remaining elevated in the upper 60s to lower 70s.
(Today) Quiet/near seasonal wx conditions prevail across the central TN Valley this early Fri morning, as high pressure remains layered over much of the SE region. This should translate into another quiet/seasonably warm day, as highs climb more into the lower/mid 90s, under mostly sunny skies.
333 AM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024 A cold front moving through today will bring rain showers and strong to severe storms, with strong winds being the main threat. High pressure builds into the region with summer-like weather this weekend. A cold front will move through the region today, bringing rain showers and chances for strong to severe storms. Friday night through Saturday will be quiet, with Saturday being slightly cooler than today, highs in the mid to high 70s today and low to mid 70s Saturday, from the aforementioned cold front that will be passing through today.
(Today through Saturday) Things will be drier today as ridging aloft builds in and PWATs fall to ~1. High temperatures will be much the same as they have been, with highs in the lower 90s along the coast to around 100 over the Brush Country.
(Today through Saturday) Upper level ridging builds in from the west today with this feature remaining over the area through Saturday.
A surface pressure trough bisecting Osceola and Brevard Counties and extending northeast into the Atlantic will be the dividing line between deeper moisture that will continue across the southern peninsula and somewhat drier air to the north. Lows will be in the lower to mid 70s for much of the area with some upper 70s along the warmer spots on the barrier islands. Little change in the forecast for the overnight with the low pressure trough remaining across the waters. Invest 90L off the northeast FL coast will shift slowly northeast, with a weak trough axis across the northern waters.
(Today and tonight) The heat wave intensifies today as a mid-summer-style upper ridge prevails over Oklahoma and northern Texas This will be associated with afternoon temperatures 6 to 12 degrees F.
/Issued 1241 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024/ /Through Saturday/ Fairly strong mid-level ridging will maintain seasonably hot and rain-free weather heading into the weekend with highs climbing into the mid 90s both today and Saturday.
Expect seasonably warm temperatures today with highs ranging from the lower 80s across the north to mid/upper 80s central and south.
- Another round of thunderstorms Saturday, with eastern zones seeing the highest severe risk.
1145 PM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024 (This evening through Friday night) Latest 18-19Z observational trends shows a sfc boundary in eastern New Mexico in-conjunction with a perturbation in the dirty H500 ridge centered over El Paso is resulting in some showers and thunderstorms beginning to develop in far NE New Mexico.
The upper level ridge pattern over the region today will be shifting to the east overnight and Friday as a closed upper level low pressure system in the Gulf of Alaska moves closer to Vancouver Island Friday. The closed upper level low will move over Vancouver Island Friday night into Saturday. The low will begin moving some moisture and precipitation into Cascades mainly along the crest Friday night with a 30-50% of showers which increases to 40-80% on Saturday. The low will pass to the east late Saturday allowing a drier flow to bring an end to the showers overnight. High temperatures will begin to cool slightly on Friday but will become significantly cooler on Saturday with high temperatures running 10 to 15 degrees cooler than normal.
129 AM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024 A cold frontal passage on Friday will bring showers and a chance of strong to possibly severe thunderstorms. High pressure builds into the region with summer-like weather this weekend. A large high is off the coast which provided us with dry warmer weather today. The high is moving further southeast. A strong cold front over the upper Midwest and eastern Ontario moves southeast tonight to move through our area Friday and Friday evening. Friday night the upper level trough is moving east into the area with cold air aloft. Northerly flow will keep temperatures in the lower to middle-70s, perhaps creeping up into the upper-70s in the Wyoming Valley.
This mixture has lead to high temperatures in the mid to high 90s and dew points in the low 70s. Friday, ridging pushes into the area from the southwest keeping temperatures warm.
An upper trough will help break the cap into the evening hours. Best lift is also seen here closest to the base of the trough.
1223 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024 (Rest of tonight) No significant changes were needed during the evening update as high pressure remains dominant and dry conditions continue over the Tennessee Valley. (Friday through Saturday Night) The aforementioned upper ridge will continue to make its way over the Southeastern US through Saturday.
149 AM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024 A cold front will approach tonight, crossing the region Friday.
(Through Friday) Upper level troughing will slowly give way to high pressure building in from the west. At the surface, high pressure builds which combined with the upper level trough, should lead to suppressed convection. (Friday night through Saturday night) A strong mid-upper ridge building from the west ushers in hazardous heat conditions through the weekend. These values are much warmer than normal for this time of year, but much less than the daily record maximum from the brutal June 15, 2011 heat.
(Today through Saturday night) As of this writing there is a mid to upper level low pressure system sitting over southern CA about to be just south of the southern tip of NV. Today, upper level ridging continues to plague the combined Panhandles with some really warm temperatures as highs reach the mid to upper 90s once again. The higher of this being towards Cimarron County.
Warmer today with continued mostly dry conditions. Discussion: Continued mostly dry weather continues today with northwest flow aloft and upper ridging intensifying across the central CONUS. Subsidence along the eastern periphery of the ridge will continue to limit afternoon convection for our area with subsidence aloft.
/NEW/ /Through Saturday/ Fairly strong mid-level ridging will maintain seasonably hot and rain-free weather heading into the weekend with highs climbing into the mid 90s both today and Saturday. As it does, the upper level ridge (mentioned in the short term discussion above) will be shifted towards the Deep South in response. Over this upcoming week, North and Central Texas will find themselves between a trough and a high place. We'll continue to be located on the back edge of the eastern ridge through the week, with a longwave trough to our northwest.
An upper level ridge will be building over the region and shifting a bit eastward during the short term, while high pressure remains in control at the surface. In fact, I would not be surprised if a few of the warmer locations somewhere around the state briefly hit 100.
Water vapor imagery highlights a positively tilted trough axis slowly lumbering east through Central Florida. The low-level vorticity analyses from CIMSS suggest the cyclonic curvature is at a lower latitude than previous days. The upper trough will lift northeast out of Florida Friday night and Saturday allowing a large mean layer ridge to take root over the southeastern US and the extreme western North Atlantic.
Rising heat concerns will be driven by the combination of an amplifying upper level ridge, rising 850 mb temperatures and ample sunshine. The primary drivers behind the continued lack of afternoon thunderstorms will be limited low level moisture and subsidence from the upper level ridge.
1035 AM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024 - A weak cold front brings a low chance (10-30%) for a shower or thunderstorm this afternoon through this evening, primarily northeast of KY-15.
(Today through tomorrow night) Currently the upper level ridge is centered over parts of northern Mexico and west Texas up to the panhandle. Saturday morning and afternoon, the ridge will be directly overhead and moving eastward.
624 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024 (Today through Saturday) Things will be drier today as ridging aloft builds in and PWATs fall to ~1. High temperatures will be much the same as they have been, with highs in the lower 90s along the coast to around 100 over the Brush Country.
-Stalley Previous Discussion: /Through Saturday/ Fairly strong mid-level ridging will maintain seasonably hot and rain-free weather heading into the weekend with highs climbing into the mid 90s both today and Saturday.
707 AM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024 - A weak cold front brings a low chance (10-30%) for a shower or thunderstorm this afternoon through this evening.
546 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024 (Today and tonight) The heat wave intensifies today as a mid-summer-style upper ridge prevails over Oklahoma and northern Texas This will be associated with afternoon temperatures 6 to 12 degrees F.
(Now through Saturday) The heat will slowly crank up the next two days as high pressure builds over the area. Upper ridging will slowly build east across the deep south today leading to rather large subsidence across the area. High pressure will be directly overhead on Saturday likely leading to rather hot and dry conditions across the area.
652 AM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024 A cold front moving through today will bring rain showers and strong to severe storms, with strong winds being the main threat. High pressure builds into the region with summer-like weather this weekend. A cold front will move through the region today, bringing rain showers and chances for strong to severe storms. Friday night through Saturday will be quiet, with Saturday being slightly cooler than today, highs in the mid to high 70s today and low to mid 70s Saturday, from the aforementioned cold front that will be passing through today.
1001 AM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024 A cold front moving through today will bring rain showers and strong to severe storms, with strong winds being the main threat. High pressure builds into the region with summer-like weather this weekend. The cold front is still north of our area over Lake Ontario. A cold front will move through the region today, bringing rain showers and chances for strong to severe storms. Friday night through Saturday will be quiet, with Saturday being slightly cooler than today, highs in the mid to high 70s today and low to mid 70s Saturday, from the aforementioned cold front that will be passing through today.
636 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024 (Today through tomorrow night) Currently the upper level ridge is centered over parts of northern Mexico and west Texas up to the panhandle. Saturday morning and afternoon, the ridge will be directly overhead and moving eastward.
As a broad trough takes hold over the region the main impact over the next few days will be in introducing cooler temperatures. The most notable of which are temperatures near or below freezing returning to the mountains and areas east of the Cascades.
416 AM PDT Fri Jun 14 2024 Today will be dry and breezy as a cold front moves through the region.