Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
(Today through Thursday) Mid to upper level ridging will remain in place across South Florida today and Thursday as a large area of high pressure at the surface remains parked over the western Atlantic. With a rather light east to southeasterly wind flow in place, temperatures will continue to remain above climatological normals as highs will rise into the lower 80s across the east coast metro areas, and into the mid to upper 80s across Southwest Florida. Low temperatures tonight will generally range from the lower to mid 60s across Southwest Florida to the upper 60s across the east coast metro areas.
1156 PM EST Tue Feb 4 2025 - Freezing rain is expected Wednesday night, but some uncertainty remains with duration and accretion amounts.
1114 PM CST Tue Feb 4 2025 Updated at 1110 PM CST Tue Feb 4 2025 - Freezing drizzle possible across northern Oklahoma tonight. Temperatures have actually been steady and/or slowly rising across most locations this afternoon--shifting the freezing line back to the northwest. Temperatures across northwest into north central Oklahoma are most likely to be at or below freezing. Therefore, there area has the potential for freezing drizzle. Mahale (Wednesday through Thursday night) The temperature forecast for tomorrow (Wednesday) has low confidence as it'll depend how far north the cold front lifts back to the north as a warm front. Therefore, trended temperatures on the cooler end of guidance. Another cold front will move through Wednesday night into Thursday, which will temper any warm up across the northern half to two-thirds of Oklahoma.
338 AM EST Wed Feb 5 2025 - Freezing rain is expected Wednesday night with slippery travel conditions likely into Thursday morning.
1123 PM CST Tue Feb 4 2025 Skies are cloudy across the Mid-South this evening with temperatures in the lower 40s to mid 60s.
916 PM CST Tue Feb 4 2025 Skies are cloudy across the Mid-South this evening with temperatures in the lower 40s to mid 60s.
A cold front is tracking across eastern OR this evening, with snow showers along the front and snow covered roads in eastern OR.
Weak high pressure situated across the southeast U. Substantial dry air aloft with minimum moisture in the lowest boundary layer will not allow for any showers or hardly any clouds for the overnight. Meanwhile, high pressure will slowly slide east but this will continue to maintain generally easterly winds for the next 24 hours. Gentle to moderate easterly breezes will persist across the Florida Keys coastal waters through the rest of this week, as several areas of high pressure move across the eastern United States and into the western North Atlantic.
Will rely heavily on the short term hi-res models for today, with most of them showing a slow drift of the eventual warm front today to north of Abilene, although perhaps not clearing Haskell and Throckmorton until nearly sunset. The expanding low clouds will limit mixing and slow the warm front progress down, and also keep temperatures in check for much of the morning. Mild again tonight with the warm front pushing north of the area.
Key Message(s): - Dry conditions overnight with increasing clouds with a cold frontal passage. High pressure continues to build over the northeast with zonal flow aloft as wedging conditions begin to develop. Key message(s): - In-situ wedging results in cooler weather and cloudy skies for Wednesday. - Warmer, drier, and breezy conditions expected on Thursday. Wednesday and Wednesday Night: High pressure over the Great Lakes will move east into New England, pushing down into our region. Current forecast highs range from the lower to mid 50s across the northern Midlands, increasing to the upper 60s and lower 70s in the southern Midlands and lower CSRA. Thursday and Thursday Night: The in-situ wedging is expected to break down on Thursday as high pressure moves offshore early in the day.
1152 PM CST Tue Feb 4 2025 (This evening through Thursday) An upper ridge will continue from the Gulf into the Plains to begin the short term period with an upper low in the Pacific Northwest. The upper ridge moves east Thursday as the upper low begins its trek along the Canadian border. With the front moving north mid day Wednesday, this should clear out the low clouds and fog, and allow temperatures to increase. Warmer temperatures are expected on Thursday with low 70s to low 80s for high temperatures across the state.
As for the high temperatures for tomorrow, should be in the range of mid 70s to low 80s.
1137 PM CST Tue Feb 4 2025 (This evening through Wednesday night) A relatively flat upper level flow pattern that has been in place is transitioning to increasing heights as a trough begins to dip into the northeastern CONUS and upper ridging develops along an axis right on the eastern side of the Rocky Mountains.
1034 PM MST Tue Feb 4 2025 - Warmer temperatures for Wednesday, however uncertainty remains on the spread of temperatures across the region.
Southwesterly flow aloft will continue today as a trough remains in place over the Pacific Northwest. Meanwhile, the broad ridge that brought record to near-record heat to southeast Arizona is now centered over the central/east CONUS and will break down as it shifts east today. The sudden shift in the upper air pattern from substantial ridging to more of a quasi-zonal flow will result in afternoon high temperatures today to moderate by 2-8 degrees from yesterday.
Strong winds continue during the day and dissipate to calmer winds by the afternoon with cooler temperatures over the region from the passing cold front. A brief reprieve from the active weather as lingering showers from the passing cold front dissipate this afternoon with more active weather returning through the upcoming weekend with temperatures gradually getting cooler. Lingering showers from overnights cold front dissipate in the morning leaving quieter conditions with much cooler temperatures behind the cold front, making high temperatures in the 30s to 40s over northern Nevada and 40s to 50s in central Nevada and overnight lows in the teens to 20s.
-Dense freezing fog this morning across the east and northeast. A light glaze of ice will be possible on elevated surfaces in the eastern Oklahoma Panhandle and the northeast Texas Panhandle where we may see some freezing drizzle, but travel is not expected to be impacted at this time.
536 AM CST Wed Feb 5 2025 Mild and unsettled weather will prevail over the Midsouth today, as a warm front lifts through the region. An upper level low pressure trough will pass through the middle Mississippi River Valley, which will aid the development of showers and thunderstorms over the Midsouth today.
- There will be several days with a large spread in temperatures over a relatively short distance, with colder temperatures north of Springfield and warmer temps south.
617 AM EST Wed Feb 5 2025 (Today through Thursday) Mid to upper level ridging will remain in place across South Florida today and Thursday as a large area of high pressure at the surface remains parked over the western Atlantic. With a rather light east to southeasterly wind flow in place, temperatures will continue to remain above climatological normals as highs will rise into the lower 80s across the east coast metro areas, and into the mid to upper 80s across Southwest Florida. Low temperatures tonight will generally range from the lower to mid 60s across Southwest Florida to the upper 60s across the east coast metro areas.
Temperatures are hovering in the lower to mid 70s, with dewpoints near 70, and gentle breezes of near 10 mph varying from NE in the Lower Keys to ESE in the Upper Keys. Surface analysis depicts high pressure extending from the western Atlantic across the Florida peninsula and along the northern Gulf coast, to the south of a stalled frontal boundary draped across the Southeastern states. Aloft, deep ridging continues to dominate our region. We expect little change through the entire forecast period, as deep ridging aloft remains dominant with passing cold fronts diverted well north of our area.
536 AM CST Wed Feb 5 2025 - Freezing drizzle this morning and associated travel impacts, especially during the morning rush.
634 AM EST Wed Feb 5 2025 - Freezing rain is expected Wednesday night with slippery travel conditions likely into Thursday morning.
Updated at 314 AM CST Wed Feb 5 2025 - Freezing drizzle (northwest OK) and drizzle (elsewhere) this morning; light ice accumulations possible on elevated surfaces.
528 AM CST Wed Feb 5 2025 -Dense freezing fog this morning across the east and northeast. A light glaze of ice will be possible on elevated surfaces in the eastern Oklahoma Panhandle and the northeast Texas Panhandle where we may see some freezing drizzle, but travel is not expected to be impacted at this time.
549 AM CST Wed Feb 5 2025 - There remains a very small chance for some light freezing drizzle this morning (~10%) for areas primarily east of highway 281.
A cold front will push through east Idaho this morning. Some ridgetops around Island Park and along the Tetons could see up to 6 inches.
Best northerly moisture influx is over the Lower Mississippi River Valley, before moving northeast over central Mississippi and Alabama today. Subsidence from upper high pressure over the Southeast will keep temperatures well above seasonal norms.
Strong winds continue during the day and dissipate to calmer winds by the afternoon with cooler temperatures over the region from the passing cold front. Active weather continues through the upcoming weekend with temperatures continue to gradually get cooler. Lingering showers from overnights cold front dissipate in the morning leaving quieter conditions with much cooler temperatures behind the cold front, making high temperatures in the 30s to 40s over northern Nevada and 40s to 50s in central Nevada and overnight lows in the teens to 20s.
408 AM CST Wed Feb 5 2025 - There remains a very small chance for some light freezing drizzle this morning (~10%) for areas primarily east of highway 281.
- Warm air surges northward east of the Divide this afternoon, before a cold front races back southward overnight tonight. The wave will be bringing colder air aloft, keeping temperatures cooler than yesterday. Yesterday saw the initial effects with the cold front stalled across the state.
Mild and unsettled weather will prevail over the Midsouth today, as a warm front lifts through the region. An upper level low pressure trough will pass through the middle Mississippi River Valley, which will aid the development of showers and thunderstorms over the Midsouth today.
357 AM CST Wed Feb 5 2025 Today and Tonight: it will continue to be much warmer than normal through tonight but rain chances will be greater today across the northern half of the CWA.
314 AM CST Wed Feb 5 2025 - Freezing drizzle this morning and associated travel impacts, especially during the morning rush.
515 AM CST Wed Feb 5 2025 Updated at 512 AM CST Wed Feb 5 2025 - Freezing drizzle (northwest OK) and drizzle (elsewhere) this morning; light ice accumulations possible on elevated surfaces.
522 AM CST Wed Feb 5 2025 (Today through Thursday) A 500mb cut off low will work eastward across Deep South Texas today and settle off the lower Texas coast by Thursday. At the surface, expect southeasterly winds to prevail and become breezy during the afternoon hours both today and Thursday as high pressure anchors near FL and low pressure swings through the Southern Plains. With the increased morning cloud cover and coastal fog, have also blended short term model guidance and the low level pinch hitting NAM to tone down highs along the coastal counties a few degrees into the upper 70s and bump up lows tonight into the upper 60s.
527 AM CST Wed Feb 5 2025 Today and Tonight: it will continue to be much warmer than normal through tonight but rain chances will be greater today across the northern half of the CWA.
Minor updates to forecast to account for the slightly higher temperatures, now expecting upper 70s/near 80 for most areas along and north of I-10, with lower 70s near the coast due to the influence of the cooler shelf waters.
As was alluded to in the morning update, an area of low pressure in the desert SW is traversing the S Central Plains this afternoon, loosely connected to a diffuse boundary that bisects N AL and Srn Middle TN, helping to spread showers from SSW to NNE across the region. Though PoPs are likely a bit overdone at this hour, there are showers advecting into the CWFA (and further development upstream), so will leave the higher PoPs in favor of a high PoP/low QPF scenario for the rest of this afternoon. Given moisture pooling ahead of what will be the warm front lifting northward across the area, this moisture will combine with increasing shear as the boundary moves through this evening.
Aloft, an anomalously strong mid- and upper- level ridge will remain firmly bridged over the Florida Peninsula. For those looking for any hopes at a late season cold front, there is little support for any such feature to push through the Keys through at least mid- February.
- A weak dry cold front will bring a northeast wind shift early Thursday.
1141 AM CST Wed Feb 5 2025 (Rest of Today) A diffuse low-level boundary bisects the area this morning, wobbling slowly southward as the remnants of a weak cold front from yesterday gradually dissipates. Off/on showers are noted on regional radars this morning and this trend is expected to continue for the remainder of the day as the current boundary begins its journey back northward as a warm front later today. This is in response to the area of low pressure over the desert SW traverses the Srn Plains and meanders into Srn MO later today. Moisture pooling ahead of the approaching upper low will combine with ample low-level shear this evening.
Southwesterly flow aloft will continue today as a trough remains in place over the Pacific Northwest. Meanwhile, the broad ridge that brought record to near-record heat to southeast Arizona is now centered over the east CONUS and will break down as it continues to shift east. The sudden shift in the upper air pattern from substantial ridging to more of a quasi-zonal flow will result in afternoon high temperatures today to moderate by 2-8 degrees from yesterday.
Conditions should begin to improve by late morning as the aforementioned front lifts back to the N as a warm front. Overnight lows will only fall into the lower 50s to mid 60s. High temperatures on Thursday will be fairly warm ranging from upper 60s N to the lower 80s over Srn AR.
1059 AM CST Wed Feb 5 2025 - Freezing drizzle this morning and associated travel impacts, especially during the morning rush.
246 PM CST Wed Feb 5 2025 - Drizzle and freezing drizzle continue to end this afternoon.
1132 AM CST Wed Feb 5 2025 -Dense freezing fog this morning across the east and northeast. A light glaze of ice will be possible on elevated surfaces in the eastern Oklahoma Panhandle and the northeast Texas Panhandle where we may see some freezing drizzle, but travel is not expected to be impacted at this time.
Issued by National Weather Service Tulsa OK 1150 AM CST Wed Feb 5 2025 Updated at 512 AM CST Wed Feb 5 2025 - Freezing drizzle (northwest OK) and drizzle (elsewhere) this morning; light ice accumulations possible on elevated surfaces.
1146 AM CST Wed Feb 5 2025 - There remains a very small chance for some light freezing drizzle this morning (~10%) for areas primarily east of highway 281.
1142 AM CST Wed Feb 5 2025 Mild and unsettled weather will prevail over the Midsouth today, as a warm front lifts through the region. An upper level low pressure trough will pass through the middle Mississippi River Valley, which will aid the development of showers and thunderstorms over the Midsouth today.
1134 AM CST Wed Feb 5 2025 (Today through Thursday) A 500mb cut off low will work eastward across Deep South Texas today and settle off the lower Texas coast by Thursday. At the surface, expect southeasterly winds to prevail and become breezy during the afternoon hours both today and Thursday as high pressure anchors near FL and low pressure swings through the Southern Plains. With the increased morning cloud cover and coastal fog, have also blended short term model guidance and the low level pinch hitting NAM to tone down highs along the coastal counties a few degrees into the upper 70s and bump up lows tonight into the upper 60s.
The cold front is through eastern Idaho and so is most of the precipitation. The more organized push of moisture came through with the cold front this morning, but we continue to so see some showery activity on radar this afternoon in parts of the South Hills, Central Mountains, and Eastern Highlands. It's no surprise we're a bit cooler behind the front this afternoon.
A deeper layer of moisture is lifting across the Lower MS River Valley from a cutoff low over Mexico, and some isolated showers have begun to move across the area.
This will flatten the upper ridge that was in place but generally will remain too far north to have any significant impacts to the local forecast. Even though the ridge axis aloft is more zonal right now, a generally high 500mb height regime is still in place.
252 PM EST Wed Feb 5 2025 - Period of freezing rain/drizzle still on track this evening into the overnight hours with untreated surfaces likely to be very slippery.
Global guidance highlight a cold front over the Lower Mississippi Valley Region looking ahead into the late week.
- Heading into the end of the week and the weekend there will be several days with a large spread in temperatures over a relatively short distance, with colder temperatures north of I-44 and warmer temps south.
515 PM CST Wed Feb 5 2025 - Drizzle and freezing drizzle continue to end this afternoon.
An upper level trough continues into the region, cold and wintry weather patterns are expected. A cold upper level trough continues to slide down the Pacific Northwest Coast.
(This afternoon through Thursday) Mid level ridging over the Caribbean and broad zonal flow over the Conus appear to be the main players in our weather for the foreseeable future well into the extended amidst perturbations in the flow.
Latest satellite imagery is now showing the low stratus/fog moving off the Gulf into Dixie county.
RW (This afternoon through Thursday) Mid level ridging over the Caribbean and broad zonal flow over the Conus appear to be the main players in our weather for the foreseeable future well into the extended amidst perturbations in the flow.
511 PM CST Wed Feb 5 2025 - A light wintry mix continues into mid evening with light snow and light freezing drizzle - mainly north of Interstate 90 and east of Interstate 29.
607 PM EST Wed Feb 5 2025 - Period of freezing rain/drizzle still on track this evening into the overnight hours with untreated surfaces likely to be very slippery.
313 PM CST Wed Feb 5 2025 - Patchy freezing drizzle should wrap up by late afternoon. Stratus, fog, and patchy drizzle and freezing drizzle continues across the region this afternoon. Temperatures have finally come above freezing for areas generally along and south of Interstate 70, so the winter weather advisory has been cancelled for these locations. Temperatures remain at or below freezing across northern portions of the region, and the winter weather advisory remains in those locations through 6 pm. Temperatures should stay above freezing through late tonight for most locations (far northern MO being the exception), but subfreezing temperatures may push further south toward sunrise tomorrow. Thus, some freezing fog will be possible. Mid level troughing skirts us to the north tomorrow, with zonal west to east mid level flow over our region.
Current radar does show some light pockets of rain lingering across portions of north central Alabama, but this intensity is light and much weaker than the more robust convection along the warm front near the TN/KY border.
- Patchy freezing drizzle should wrap up by late afternoon. Stratus, fog, and patchy drizzle and freezing drizzle continues across the region this afternoon. Temperatures have finally come above freezing for areas generally along and south of Interstate 70, so the winter weather advisory has been cancelled for these locations. Temperatures remain at or below freezing across northern portions of the region, and the winter weather advisory remains in those locations through 6 pm. Temperatures should stay above freezing through late tonight for most locations (far northern MO being the exception), but subfreezing temperatures may push further south toward sunrise tomorrow. Thus, some freezing fog will be possible. Mid level troughing skirts us to the north tomorrow, with zonal west to east mid level flow over our region.
We looked at the high resolution model ensemble and found a 60 percent chance for moderate to heavy snow showers along Highway 200 northwest of Thompson Falls to Heron. The current trough over the region stretches out over the next 24 hours and connects with a low pressure system spinning of the Washington coast.
- Winter Weather Advisory Remains for Freezing Drizzle Into Tonight.
1050 PM CST Wed Feb 5 2025 The mid-evening sfc analysis indicates that a weak nearly stationary frontal bndry lingers from Cntrl AR across the Nrn sections of SW AR into McCurtain County OK, and is generally hung up in the higher terrain of the Ouachitas. Did make some minor tweaks based on the 03Z obs, mainly to lower temps a bit across the Nrn zones where the cooler air has dammed in the higher terrain, but another night of much above normal temps (and still warmer than the daily max temps for this time of year) is expected in the muggy air mass in place.
1023 PM CST Wed Feb 5 2025 The mid-evening sfc analysis indicates that a weak nearly stationary frontal bndry lingers from Cntrl AR across the Nrn sections of SW AR into McCurtain County OK, and is generally hung up in the higher terrain of the Ouachitas. Did make some minor tweaks based on the 03Z obs, mainly to lower temps a bit across the Nrn zones where the cooler air has dammed in the higher terrain, but another night of much above normal temps (and still warmer than the daily max temps for this time of year) is expected in the muggy air mass in place.
1043 PM CST Wed Feb 5 2025 - A light wintry mix of light snow and freezing drizzle will end across the area toward midnight, with a light glaze of ice and light dusting of snow possible.
A wild card is stronger winds overrunning the cooler boundary layer, leading towards stratus development. Am leaning towards the lower end of VISBYs/CIGs (VLIFR/LIFR) for the forecast for now. Latest VAD profile from KMOB radar as of 0323z continues to show 2-3kft winds between 15 and 20 kts which is near the top of the low level moisture layer.
A deep mean layer ridge centered near western Cuba has been maintaining dry conditions but also above normal temperatures. Highs across the island chain ranged from near 80 degrees into the lower 80s, which is about 3-5 degrees higher than what we typically see this time of year. In addition, we started out with dew points in the lower 70s and thankfully have come down into the mid to upper 60s. Otherwise, easterly winds at the surface will prevail thanks to a broad elongated high pressure that stretches from the Gulf to the western Atlantic.
One area of showers that brought snow earlier to the Spokane/Coeur d'Alene area has lifted north into the Ione, Newport, and Sandpoint areas while radar is beginning to show some increase in returns across the lower Columbia Basin into SE Washington as the next wave moves in.
One area of showers that brought snow earlier to the Spokane/Coeur d'Alene area has lifted north into the Ione, Newport, and Sandpoint areas while radar is beginning to show some increase in returns across the lower Columbia Basin into SE Washington as the next wave moves in. JW 06Z TAFS: Radar, satellite, and surface observations shows bands of snow showers moving into the region, with the highest focus tonight expected to be around the Spokane/Coeur d'Alene area and the North ID Panhandle with IFR/MVFR conditions.
Latest VAD profile from KMOB radar as of 0323z continues to show 2-3kft winds between 15 and 20 kts which is near the top of the low level moisture layer.