Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1139 PM CST Thu Nov 21 2024 (This evening through Saturday) As a cold front pushes south across the state today, high temperatures across northern portions of the state are maxing out in the lower to mid 50s (a bit below the climatological average), while high temperatures elsewhere in the state are closer to seasonal averages, in the lower to upper 60s. Breezy north-northwest flow is in place as upper ridging and High pressure builds across the region.
An upper low/trough axis also continues to rotate eastward thru the OH Valley/Mid Atlantic states, with some cloud cover approaching southern mid TN. Given the continued influx of cooler air into the central TN Valley, overnight lows still look to fall mainly into the lower/mid 30s for most spots. A few locations may drop to the freezing mark early Fri morning, although the duration should only be for an hr or two.
925 PM MST Thu Nov 21 2024 - High pressure remains in control heading into Saturday with partly cloudy skies expected.
(Today) An upper low will continue northeast over New England today, while an upper ridge nudges east over the Mississippi Valley. The pressure gradient between these features (over the Tennessee Valley and Appalachians) will keep conditions breezy today, with sustained northwest winds between 10-15 mph and gusts to between 18-25 mph (greatest values over the higher elevations in northeast Alabama). Even with not much cloud cover during the day today, continued cold air advection from northwest winds will maintain cooler temperatures.
Expect temps in the 30s and lower 40s to start the day, followed by yet another spectacular afternoon with temperatures in the low to mid 70s.
Scattered rain and snow showers will wind down into the evening as low pressure over Lake Michigan weakens and sweeps south into the Ohio Valley. At the same time, secondary low pressure developing along the eastern seaboard will retrograde back into far eastern New York state. This will allow Atlantic moisture to wrap back around the overall upper level low pressure to our east and pivot back through Lake Huron into parts of SE lower MI overnight tonight into Friday. Generally dry conditions are expected over the weekend as this low continues to shift east away from the region.
Pattern Synopsis: A strong closed mid/upper-level low apparent on satellite imagery centered over the Mid-Atlantic will continue to pivot across much of the eastern CONUS today as the associated surface cyclone gradually weakens with time due the vertically-stacked system cutting off favorable temperature/vorticity advection. Meanwhile, ridging and associated height rises look to overspread the Great Lakes by this evening. It will be cool enough later in the day and into the early portions of the overnight for snow showers to mix in across portions of the higher terrain, the eastern UP, and within any more robust showers.
- High pressure will bring dry and cool conditions for Friday and Saturday.
(Today and tonight) For today, breezy and cool conditions will prevail with clear skies behind a cold front. High temperatures will generally range from the mid to upper 50s across the northern counties to the low to mid 60s closer to the coast.
- Cooler daytime temperatures expected across most of the region Friday in the wake of a weak cold front.
A deep cyclonic circulation over the Ohio Valley is giving an early taste of wintry weather across the Northeast and central Appalachians, with a classic deep trough axis tilting to the northwest with height across Florida and the Gulf of Mexico. Overnight, little change is expected with mesoscale guidance still anticipating a noctural density surge off the Everglades beginning during the early morning hours, with forecasted temperatures in the lower to mid 50s just north of the Bay. High pressure will then advance eastward through the Gulf Coast states this weekend resulting in winds relaxing and veering to northeast to east.
WAA taking place as a warm front pushes east into the region. We have made some minor updates to the sky grids to account for the latest trends with the high based stratus moving in across the west. With the cloud cover being mostly the high cirrus, strong radiational cooling should take effect. Will it shift again? Different models have a closed low at 500mb and some have an open wave.
Low pressure off the Pacific Northwest coast will sag south, directing moisture into the Sierra Friday night into Saturday.
1005 PM MST Thu Nov 21 2024 Updated Aviation High pressure over the region will bring slightly above normal temperatures into the weekend with lower desert highs in the upper 70s to around 80 degrees through Saturday.
248 AM EST Fri Nov 22 2024 - Slick spots will be possible during the morning commute, especially on bridges and overpasses.
Temperatures will remain below average, thanks to a reinforcing cold front currently marching south through N LA. As it sweeps across our area, a cooler high pressure will move in then settle overhead by tomorrow night. Parts of CenLA have a 50 to 90% chance of seeing freezing temperatures. The high pressure system will shift offshore near the MS/AL Gulf Coast, allowing southerly winds to become reestablished. Daytime highs will remain near seasonal norms, but Saturday night temperatures will take a modest step up, only falling to the 40s to 50s inland and the lower 60s closer to the coast.
1030 PM MST Thu Nov 21 2024 - Mild weather will continue each day through Saturday as high pressure remains in control over southeast Wyoming and western Nebraska.
150 AM MST Fri Nov 22 2024 - Weak cold front tonight with some fog potential on the plains north and east of the Black Hills.
1057 PM CST Thu Nov 21 2024 - Patchy freezing fog possible tonight and Friday night.
Mostly sunny skies are expected, with temperatures warming into the low to mid 50s north of I-40 and upper 50s to low 60s south of I-40.
(Today through Saturday) The BRO CWFA will remain on the northeast periphery of 500 mb high pressure that will remain centered just west of the Baja Peninsula.
1014 PM MST Thu Nov 21 2024 - Ridging provides tranquil and warm conditions for most of western WY the next couple days.
High temperatures today will be in the lower 60s over southeast Georgia and in the mid to upper 60s over northeast Florida. The region will be between a trough of low pressure to the northeast, and building high pressure to the west northwest. The high will build closer from the west northwest Friday night. This will be a significantly cooler than normal night. While this wind may limit frost production, it will make it feel cooler with Apparent Temperature readings dipping into the 30s all the way to the coast. High pressure will build close Saturday, then overhead Saturday night. Highs Saturday in the lower to mid 60s expected. Due to the high overhead Saturday night, winds will fall off to near calm.
High pressure aloft will result in well above normal high temperatures through Saturday.
520 AM CST Fri Nov 22 2024 (Friday through Saturday) Quiet morning across the Four State Region as high pressure remains dominate. At the same time, a backdooring cold front continues to drift NE to SW across the local zones, with a shallow layer of 925mb cold air advection trailing as depicted on mesoanalysis. This should support afternoon temperatures a few degrees cooler when compared to yesterday, or fairly similar.
(Today through Saturday Night) A strong upper low is expected to be over the east coast today with an upper ridge building over the Rockies. The upper low moves offshore Saturday as the upper ridge spreads across much of the country. On Saturday, winds will become southerly and bring warmer temperatures. High temperatures today will be in the lower 50s to lower 60s and in the upper 50s to mid 60s Saturday.
The next embedded trough moves through the mean southwesterly upper level flow and yet another atmospheric river event occurs. At the lower elevations, rainfall will be light to moderate starting tonight, so nothing like California with any kind of flooding. Zero snowfall, save for the high ground around Craters of the Moon and north of St Anthony. Even Stanley warming into the middle 40s, Challis to the lower 50s. A positive-tilt trough moving through a more westerly flow will again bring rain and snow, with snow over more areas and without the subtropical connections. Highs will only manage to get into the lower or middle 30s for those same elevations, middle to upper 20s for highland locations in the northeast.
539 AM CST Fri Nov 22 2024 Today through tonight: A continental polar airmass will continue to advect into the lower MS Valley region as we finish up the week, and this will bring the first freeze of the fall season for many locations tonight. Temperatures should drop quickly this evening with frost/freezing temperatures becoming likely over northeast portions of the area after midnight. Forecast confidence for freezing temperatures diminishes over western/southern portions of the area, and have issued freeze warning/watch headlines accordingly.
538 AM CST Fri Nov 22 2024 (Today) An upper low will continue northeast over New England today, while an upper ridge nudges east over the Mississippi Valley. The pressure gradient between these features (over the Tennessee Valley and Appalachians) will keep conditions breezy today, with sustained northwest winds between 10-15 mph and gusts to between 18-25 mph (greatest values over the higher elevations in northeast Alabama). Even with not much cloud cover during the day today, continued cold air advection from northwest winds will maintain cooler temperatures.
627 AM EST Fri Nov 22 2024 - Slick spots will be possible during the morning commute, especially on bridges and overpasses.
The current forecast reflects a better potential and larger footprint of low temperatures in the lower 30s, perhaps very isolated upper 20s that aren't explicitly captured in the grids.
- Warmer and breezier conditions return this weekend ahead of some light rain. Early morning GOES-16 water vapor imagery depicts a highly amplified pattern over the Lower 48, with a strong upper-level low centered over the Mid-Atlantic region and a ridge axis nosing across the Upper Midwest.
538 AM CST Fri Nov 22 2024 (Today through Saturday Night) A strong upper low is expected to be over the east coast today with an upper ridge building over the Rockies. The upper low moves offshore Saturday as the upper ridge spreads across much of the country. On Saturday, winds will become southerly and bring warmer temperatures. High temperatures today will be in the lower 50s to lower 60s and in the upper 50s to mid 60s Saturday.
High temperatures in the lower 50s valleys/middle to upper 40s Cumberland Plateau look good.
413 AM MST Fri Nov 22 2024 - Weak cold front tonight with some fog potential on the plains north and east of the Black Hills.
- Cooler daytime temperatures expected across most of the region today in the wake of a weak cold front.
Northwest winds will gradually weaken as high pressure approaches from the west. High temperatures this afternoon will only reach the lower to mid 50s. Southerly winds will bring a warming trend, with daytime highs reaching the lower 70s over most of the Midsouth.
Updated Aviation Discussion High pressure over the region will promote well above normal temperatures with lower desert highs in the upper 70s to around 80 degrees through Saturday.
(Today through Saturday) Temperatures today will be a few degrees warmer than yesterday and will continue to gradually warm up through tomorrow as onshore flow returns.
Later tonight into Saturday a piece of energy from the upper level low off the Pacific Northwest coast is still anticipated to move from eastern Washington into southern Alberta.
A pattern shift gets underway on Saturday as the aforementioned area of high pressure pushes off to the east, slowly bringing about a return to an onshore flow regime for our area.
Increasing confidence (>80%) in below freezing highs following Thanksgiving. This scenario appears most likely in the southwest where minor surface ridging will take place.
Even with a good amount of sunshine on tap, along with a weak downsloping wind component, temperatures this afternoon will only rise into the low to middle 50s. Winds aloft will still be stronger, 20-30 knots, and with the warmer lake temperatures, can not rule out the need for another LWA later tonight.
(Today through Saturday) Overall synoptic picture is upper trough off the west coast and one over the NE with an upper high over much of the nation.
455 AM MST Fri Nov 22 2024 - Weak cold front tonight with some fog potential on the plains north and east of the Black Hills.
335 AM MST Fri Nov 22 2024 High pressure over the region will promote well above normal temperatures with lower desert highs in the upper 70s to around 80 degrees through Saturday.
(Friday through Saturday) Quiet morning across the Four State Region as high pressure remains dominate. At the same time, a backdooring cold front continues to drift NE to SW across the local zones, with a shallow layer of 925mb cold air advection trailing as depicted on mesoanalysis. This should support afternoon temperatures a few degrees cooler when compared to yesterday, or fairly similar.
626 AM EST Fri Nov 22 2024 (Today and tonight) For today, breezy and cool conditions will prevail with clear skies behind a cold front. High temperatures will generally range from the mid to upper 50s across the northern counties to the low to mid 60s closer to the coast.
Even with a good amount of sunshine on tap, along with a weak downsloping wind component, temperatures this afternoon only rise into the low to middle 50s. Winds aloft will still be stronger, 20-30 knots, and with the warmer lake temperatures, can not rule out the need for another LWA later tonight.
506 AM CST Fri Nov 22 2024 (Today through Saturday) Temperatures today will be a few degrees warmer than yesterday and will continue to gradually warm up through tomorrow as onshore flow returns.
358 AM CST Fri Nov 22 2024 Today through tonight: A continental polar airmass will continue to advect into the lower MS Valley region as we finish up the week, and this will bring the first freeze of the fall season for many locations tonight. Temperatures should drop quickly this evening with frost/freezing temperatures becoming likely over northeast portions of the area after midnight. Forecast confidence for freezing temperatures diminishes over western/southern portions of the area, and have issued freeze warning/watch headlines accordingly.
529 AM CST Fri Nov 22 2024 (Today through Saturday) The BRO CWFA will remain on the northeast periphery of 500 mb high pressure that will remain centered just west of the Baja Peninsula.
High pressure will settle over the area today, yielding light winds and clear skies. /20/ (Friday through Saturday) Quiet morning across the Four State Region as high pressure remains dominate. At the same time, a backdooring cold front continues to drift NE to SW across the local zones, with a shallow layer of 925mb cold air advection trailing as depicted on mesoanalysis. This should support afternoon temperatures a few degrees cooler when compared to yesterday, or fairly similar.
Mostly clear to clear skies through Saturday, lows tonight dropping into the mid 40s over the northern portion of the CWA to the lower 60s right along the coast. High temperatures will likely reach the lower to mid 80s across most of South Texas. Lows Saturday night will be around 10 degrees warmer than tonight, ranging from the mid 50s inland to around 70 over the islands.
Broad ridging building in from the Plains will result in generally drier weather and slightly above normal temperatures this weekend. Broad ridging beginning to work in from the Plains on Saturday and resulting mid-level subsidence should yield drier conditions across the area through this weekend.
Areas to widespread frost appear likely tonight with low temperatures in the lower 30s.
1133 AM CST Fri Nov 22 2024 (Today through Saturday Night) A strong upper low is expected to be over the east coast today with an upper ridge building over the Rockies. The upper low moves offshore Saturday as the upper ridge spreads across much of the country. On Saturday, winds will become southerly and bring warmer temperatures. High temperatures today will be in the lower 50s to lower 60s and in the upper 50s to mid 60s Saturday.
221 PM CST Fri Nov 22 2024 - Overcast skies will stick around through at least the first half of Saturday before we start to erode the low stratus later in the day.
Light rain and snow continues this morning over the northern half of our CWA, associated with a northward- moving warm front. Cold front in eastern Oregon will not reach western Idaho through tonight due to a vort center near 40N/132W moving rapidly eastward. The vort will induce a wave on the cold front. This will create another warm front in eastern Oregon that will pass northeastward through our CWA tonight, followed by the cold front Saturday. Instability under the upper trough will develop a slight chance of thunderstorms Saturday afternoon. Cold front Fri night thru Sat, bringing widespread rain/snow and MVFR to LIFR conditions at times.
Morning lows are on track to bottom out in the lower to middle 30's for most locations with upper 30's to lower 40's nearer the coast. Tonight will once again be a chilly night with lows falling into the lower to middle 30's for most locations, upper 30's nearer the coast.
Gusty winds this afternoon begin to diminish this evening as high pressure begins to move into the area. Cooler temperatures and chances for rain return toward the second half of the week due to an approaching system from the west. With lakes remaining warm, some of the winds in the low-level jet could mix down overnight, but have decided against another Lake Wind Advisory for now as guidance keeps wind gusts lower than threshold values. Another night of chilly temperatures is in store, but don't think many, if any, locations will drop to the freezing mark tonight.
(Tonight through Saturday night) Upper air analysis this morning showed a ridge extending from the Gulf of California to the northern plains and northwesterly flow over Texas. The upper ridge will flatten over the short term period with the flow becoming close to zonal. High pressure over the southern plains will push down over Texas and our low level flow will become southerly to southeasterly tonight and this will continue Saturday and Saturday night. Temperatures will continue to trend warmer.
(Rest of today through Saturday) A secondary cold front moving through South Florida early this afternoon will continue to move Southward and into the Florida Keys tonight. Lows along the east coast will get down to around 50 except for Miami-Dade and Coastal Broward Counties where the lows should fall down into the lower to mid 50s. The west coast metro areas will see the lows get down to around 50.
336 PM EST Fri Nov 22 2024 The threat for showers will end tonight as low pressure moves farther east.
1137 AM CST Fri Nov 22 2024 (Today through Saturday) Temperatures today will be a few degrees warmer than yesterday and will continue to gradually warm up through tomorrow as onshore flow returns.
Most of the moisture remains confined to the lower levels beneath a 5. Satellite obs support the sounding measurements; swaths of low- altitude stratocumulus clouds are present across the Lower Keys, but a shadow from the Florida Peninsula continues to keep skies over the Middle and Upper Keys relatively cloud free. Highs across the Keys will be limited to the low to mid 70s.
Low level southerly to southeasterly flow will allow for an uptick in humidity, but the influence of mid level ridging will keep it rain-free. Low temperatures tonight will range from the low 50s across the Northern Ranchlands to upper 50s across the Rio Grande Valley, but a few locales make dip into the upper 40s across the Northern Ranchlands.
(Today and tonight) For today, breezy and cool conditions will prevail with clear skies behind a cold front. High temperatures will generally range from the mid to upper 50s across the northern counties to the low to mid 60s closer to the coast. By mid-morning, surface winds will increase out of the northwest for all sites with gusts near 20 knots expected, and the low level wind shear will come to an end. Dispersions will be elevated today with breezy conditions behind a cold front. Min RH values will drop into the low to mid 30s across the area this afternoon.
222 PM CST Fri Nov 22 2024 - Some potential for fog development across portions of northcentral Iowa, southwestern Minnesota and areas long the Buffalo Ridge into South Dakota into Saturday morning. Confidence remains high (>80% chance) for high temperatures to largely remain at or below freezing.
High pressure over the region will promote well above normal temperatures with lower desert highs in the upper 70s to around 80 degrees through Saturday.
- Warmer and breezier conditions return this weekend ahead of some light rain. The upper low that brought wintry precipitation to the area yesterday is centered over the Northeast US with cyclonic flow positioned over the area on the western fringes of it. Some periodic drizzle could be seen, mainly in eastern parts of the state, where some subtle lift in the 950-800 mb layer overlaps the low-level moisture. NMA Early morning GOES-16 water vapor imagery depicts a highly amplified pattern over the Lower 48, with a strong upper-level low centered over the Mid-Atlantic region and a ridge axis nosing across the Upper Midwest.
(Tonight) Slightly warmer temperatures are on tap for tonight as the high pressure center currently over the area shifts to the east.
pdf The trough will slowly move further away to the northeast tonight, as high pressure builds closer to the west northwest. Lows east of I95 will be milder with lows in the lower 40s.
1133 AM CST Fri Nov 22 2024 (Today through Saturday) Overall synoptic picture is upper trough off the west coast and one over the NE with an upper high over much of the nation.
(This afternoon through Saturday night) Get out and enjoy this weekend as temperatures are expected to be well above normal under sunny skies! Weak mid level ridging will continue over the region leading to a dry forecast (not much if any clouds either).
High pressure at the surface will continue to settle southeast into the forecast area through the course of today. Cooler conditions will be felt across the CWA today as a result. /19/ Today through tonight: A continental polar airmass will continue to advect into the lower MS Valley region as we finish up the week, and this will bring the first freeze of the fall season for many locations tonight. Temperatures should drop quickly this evening with frost/freezing temperatures becoming likely over northeast portions of the area after midnight. Forecast confidence for freezing temperatures diminishes over western/southern portions of the area, and have issued freeze warning/watch headlines accordingly.
Lows tonight and Saturday night will be near or below freezing over much of north and west Georgia with widespread frost likely both nights.
1132 AM CST Fri Nov 22 2024 (Today through Saturday) The BRO CWFA will remain on the northeast periphery of 500 mb high pressure that will remain centered just west of the Baja Peninsula.
1207 PM CST Fri Nov 22 2024 (Friday through Saturday) Quiet morning across the Four State Region as high pressure remains dominate. At the same time, a backdooring cold front continues to drift NE to SW across the local zones, with a shallow layer of 925mb cold air advection trailing as depicted on mesoanalysis. This should support afternoon temperatures a few degrees cooler when compared to yesterday, or fairly similar.
1103 AM MST Fri Nov 22 2024 - Weak cold front tonight with some fog potential on the plains north and east of the Black Hills.