Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
The flow has shifted to more southeasterly helping to deliver additional moisture from over southern Arizona but will also will push storms that develop over the higher terrain toward the northwest. With a high pressure system currently centered over the Four Corners, southerly flow will be enhanced, allowing an increase in moisture advection to occur. Scattered to widespread activity looks likely on Sunday as the high pressure remains centered over the Four Corners and moisture continues to be abundant.
The highs are expected to be in the low 90s and dewpoints will be in the mid to upper 70s.
1215 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024 (Today and tonight) Hot weather will continue as the Southern Plains will remain on the eastern periphery of a mid-level ridge and attendant low-level thermal ridge.
Otherwise fair skies with some leftover convective debris clouds in the mid/upper levels and humid conditions overnight with lows in the lower/middle 70s inland and upper 70s to near 80 along the Atlantic Coastal areas and St.
A strong upper-level ridge is centered over the central Rockies leading to the promise of hot temperatures.
Light winds but good mixing will help temperatures to reach the upper 80s to lower 90s and cooler in higher terrain.
Discussion: Upper-level ridge continues across the Southeast CONUS with weak troughing across the Mississippi Valley. Low-level 850mb ridge remains centered across the Midsouth with 21C to 23C temperatures across the Tennessee Valley and Southern Appalachians. This will produce mostly dry weather across the region with some low 10 to 20 percent chances of weak diurnal convection across the higher terrain.
1248 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024 (Today through Sunday) We remain under the influence of mid and upper level troughing today which will keep rain chances in our forecast. This troughing is locked in between strong high pressure over the Rockies and high pressure over the Southeast US. Within this troughing, a band of vorticity will lift north through the area today and will be the focus for convection. Once this gets out of here, the southeast US ridge will build into Texas and bring quieter weather for the second half of the weekend.
Dry conditions are expected tomorrow, along with slightly warmer temperatures as the ridge west of us expands east a bit. Lows tonight will be in the low to mid 70s, with highs tomorrow ranging from the mid 90s across southern sections, to the upper 90s to around 100 degrees elsewhere.
The high risk of grass fires in the valley continues, with fire behavior enhanced even with low wind speeds this weekend. Large upper ridge centered near the four corners area continues to be the predominant weather feature for our area and providing our area with yet another day of widespread dangerous heat. A southwest flow around the upper ridge is allowing for some upper level moisture to stream into central CA which has resulted in some elevated convection with some fast moving showers and isolated thunderstorms moving from southeast to northwest across our CWFA.
Quiet tonight with lows in the low to mid 70s. Upper ridge will continue to build and influence the region. Thermal ridge will also build further east Sunday.
Boundary layer & deep moisture remain elevated, keeping dewpoints up & seasonably warm lows in the low-mid 70s. 0 inch PWAT air and beneath the right entrance region of the jet stream associated with an upper-level trough in the region. Dew points even south of Interstate 20 have mixed out into the lower 70s today. The NAM and GFS explicitly show some sort of mid- level low or MCV feature evolving from the TX/LA convection this evening and drifting northeast with the flow, and this seems like a reasonable possibility given the jet dynamics and vorticity in the base of the upper-level trough. The upper-level trough axis never truly clears out of the central Gulf Coast region through the end of this week, so afternoon convection and increased cloud cover will continue to challenge peak heating potential.
Muscle Shoals and Decatur apparently heated to 100 degrees, with 98 the high in Huntsville. Given the heat from earlier and a very warm airmass in place, lows by daybreak Sunday should cool into the lower to mid 70s, with light winds.
409 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024 (This afternoon through Sunday night) WV imagery shows a bifurcated upper ridge persisting over the southern CONUS, with one half centered just northeast of the Four Corners, and the other over the southeast Gulf coast states, placing the col from Del Rio to the ArklaTex. The col is allowing a sort of inverted trough over Chihuahua/Coahuila, favoring convective development there in upslope flow. Sunday looks very similar to today, only thicknesses increase just a bit northeast as the Four Corners ridge develops a little farther south, adding a degree or two to afternoon highs. At the same time, the inverted trough noses a little farther in to the CWA, decreasing temperatures in the southwest.
The current min temps forecast in the lower to mid 70s still looks to be in good shape, and thus, no changes were needed.
Temperatures will fall back closer to seasonal averages as high pressure weakens and deeper moisture returns to the area. Moisture will slosh back into the picture with a deeper moisture surge into the lower deserts that will circulate back through our area and bring increasing thunderstorm chances early in the new week. With the high center meandering around the 4 corners area, we'll continue to vulnerable to strong organized outflow off the Mogollon Rim on days where there is enough moisture in eastern areas.
Weak high pressure ridging exists across the local waters.
The highest coverage and NBM probabilities are along the Sierra crest (20-40%) with generally southerly steering flow.
Additionally, expect warm and moderately humid weather with highs ranging in the mid 80s to the low 90s.
Lows tonight will trend down to the mid 70s across the area, with coastal locations a bit warmer in the upper 70s. Otherwise fair skies with some leftover convective debris clouds in the mid/upper levels and humid conditions overnight with lows in the lower/middle 70s inland and upper 70s to near 80 along the Atlantic Coastal areas and St.
Meanwhile, the Lower Keys have remained rain-free. In the lower levels, an expansive area of high pressure in the North Atlantic extends across Florida and the island chain. Temperatures outside of rain- cooled areas will only drop into the lower to mid 80s.
937 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024 (This evening through Sunday night) Upper ridges centered from Bermuda to the eastern Gulf of Mexico to our east and over the Four Corners area to the west. In between, a trough axis extended from Lake Ontario to western Kentucky to Oklahoma. Most of the morning across the area saw little in the way of cloud cover, but as temperatures warmed into the lower and middle 90s, isolated to scattered convection developed along lake and sea breeze boundaries. The western ridge may expand eastward slightly on Sunday, pushing the trough axis a bit closer to the area. Maybe a little better areal coverage with the trough being a bit closer, but that's it.
625 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024 (This evening through Sunday) An upper level high situated over northern NM continues to drive the weather picture here in West Texas on this warm summer day. WV imagery shows some weak lift rotating about the NERN periphery of the high making its way out of OK into the Permian Basin.
621 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024 (Tonight through Sunday night) Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are seen across South Central Texas early this afternoon associated with lingering deep tropical moisture and an inverted trough to the west. High pressure over the Gulf expands over east Texas overnight bringing more stable conditions to the area tomorrow. Slightly warmer conditions are forecast tomorrow with highs mainly in the 90s across the area.
608 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024 (Tonight through Sunday night) As a mid-level ridge moves the Four Corners region, more dry air will filter into the area. As for the temperatures, the low temperatures for both tonight and tomorrow night are expected to be in the 70s with parts of the Lower Rio Grande Valley close to the 80s. The high temperature for tomorrow is expected to be in the 90s.
The moisture associated with the weak 500 mb trough is moving north, as the 500 mb ridges on either side of the trough begin to rotate north to join up over North Texas. High temperatures, with the building ridge look to support temperatures of 90 near the coast to near 100 in the Rio Grande Plains.
(Today and tonight) The upper level ridge is currently centered over southern Colorado and northern New Mexico early this morning. This ridge will remain in place, and possibly even slightly expand somewhat to the southeast. Tonight, south/southeast winds will diminish to 5 to 10 mph, with lows mainly in the low to mid 70s.
A cold front tonight will then cool conditions off slightly early into the work week. WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: A clear day will give way to thunderstorms tonight along a cold front pushing into the area.
Moisture will decrease slightly on Sunday, but there is another decent chance of thunderstorms in the mountains during the afternoon and evening, and lesser chances in the high desert.
Temperatures will fall back closer to seasonal averages as high pressure weakens and deeper moisture returns to the area. Broader pattern continues to feature mid/upper level high near the Four Corners region with mid level easterly flow in place. Meanwhile, in the lower levels, Gulf of California moisture aided by the outflows from the Sonoran convection continues to stream into portions of southeast Arizona, especially from Tucson and points westward. Some localized flash flooding also possible with the highest chances south and west of Tucson where the deepest moisture resides. As the week progresses, the mid/upper level high will meander a bit, but still be located to our north with favorable easterly flow.
The shift in flow will bring much cooler (mild) temperatures back to the region, while overall precipitation chances diminishing as drier/more stable air moves in place. Starting off today dry and stable with weak high pressure in western Manitoba. Cold front looks to move east fast enough so that Monday 12z onward may see remaining showers or a few t-storms, the severe risk is gone.
These appear to be associated with isentropic ascent that is augmented by the low-level jet. Otherwise, the hot weather will continue today as the Southern Plains remains on the eastern periphery of a ~599 dam mid-level ridge and associated low-level thermal ridge. The low-level thermal ridge is forecast to strengthen and expand farther to the east today.
(Today) Hot and humid conditions intensify today across the region as the mid level ridge continues to expand eastward into the Plains. Highs today should be a few degrees warmer than yesterday, topping out in the upper 90s across much of eastern Oklahoma into western Arkansas. That combined with dewpoints in the low 70s will yield heat index values in excess of 100 to 108 degrees this afternoon.
1226 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 (Tonight through Sunday night) As a mid-level ridge moves the Four Corners region, more dry air will filter into the area. As for the temperatures, the low temperatures for both tonight and tomorrow night are expected to be in the 70s with parts of the Lower Rio Grande Valley close to the 80s. The high temperature for tomorrow is expected to be in the 90s.
This trend should continue through Sunday as the low level flow remains generally land locked. Yesterday's high at BNA was 96F and it appears that each of the next few afternoons will be getting slightly warmer.
1203 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 (This evening through Sunday) An upper level high situated over northern NM continues to drive the weather picture here in West Texas on this warm summer day. WV imagery shows some weak lift rotating about the NERN periphery of the high making its way out of OK into the Permian Basin.
An upper high was centered ovr the 4-Corners region, with AR still situated on the eastern periphery. The lingering northeast to southwest aligned weak upper trof/shear axis over the FA may help to produce a few showers/storms acrs southeast AR later today. For Monday, the aforementioned upper high wl begin to expand to the east once again. The resulting incrs in upper heights wl result in warmer high temps Mon aftn, as the mercury tops out in the 90s.
108 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 (Tonight through Sunday night) Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are seen across South Central Texas early this afternoon associated with lingering deep tropical moisture and an inverted trough to the west. High pressure over the Gulf expands over east Texas overnight bringing more stable conditions to the area tomorrow. Slightly warmer conditions are forecast tomorrow with highs mainly in the 90s across the area.
On Sunday, stronger ridging that has been centered over the western CONUS will shift a little farther eastward into the Plains accompanied by some drier air.
Currently - Surface through mid level Atlantic ridging stretches westward across the Florida Peninsula. Meanwhile, a very broad lower tropospheric trough is working its way westward across the greater Antilles. Forecast - The Atlantic ridged will remain draped across the Florida Peninsula through the week with subtle undulations both in strength and north/south positioning. The previously mentioned broad lower tropospheric trough will take a few days to clear west of our area. Heading into mid week the Atlantic ridge will remain across Florida. However, the lower level trough will have cleared west of our area. Atlantic ridging will remain across the Florida Peninsula through the forecast.
(Today and tonight) Ridging overhead today will once again allow high temperatures to rise into the mid to upper 90s this afternoon.
- Scorching stretch of Summer heat looks to peak on Monday! - Turning cooler by mid-week with some shower/storm chances. This continues to promote isolated to widely scattered elevated convection where there remains sufficient mid-level moisture potential instability within the weakly perturbed northerly flow aloft around the periphery of the ridge aloft.
/DL/ Our area will remain under the influence of high pressure through mid week.
Upper levels continue to show an elongated east-west oriented ridge along the Gulf coast, with weak high pressure at the surface.
1157 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024 (This afternoon through Sunday night) WV imagery shows a bifurcated upper ridge persisting over the southern CONUS, with one half centered just northeast of the Four Corners, and the other over the southeast Gulf coast states, placing the col from Del Rio to the ArklaTex. The col is allowing a sort of inverted trough over Chihuahua/Coahuila, favoring convective development there in upslope flow. Sunday looks very similar to today, only thicknesses increase just a bit northeast as the Four Corners ridge develops a little farther south, adding a degree or two to afternoon highs. At the same time, the inverted trough noses a little farther in to the CWA, decreasing temperatures in the southwest.
Pattern fairly static during the period with upper ridge centered near CO/NM and another elongated ridge extending from the northern Gulf into the central north Atlantic.
The upper ridge to our west has expanded more than expected and will lead to more subsidence and less in the way of convective activity early this week.
(Today through Monday) An upper level ridge is currently centered near the 4-Corners and loosely extends across the southern CONUS. Increased 500mb heights from ridge to the west will continue to support mid/upper 90 degree highs.
Temperatures earlier did end up a couple of degrees warmer at our climate sites than forecast, so will take that into account for tomorrow and the days following. Flow aloft will continue to be weak out of the west into tomorrow, perhaps sparking a shower/storm over the higher terrain. Discussion: Upper-level ridge continues across the Southeast CONUS with weak troughing across the Mississippi Valley. Low-level 850mb ridge remains centered across the Midsouth with 21C to 23C temperatures across the Tennessee Valley and Southern Appalachians. This will produce mostly dry weather across the region with some low 10 to 20 percent chances of weak diurnal convection across the higher terrain.
The main reason behind the lower temperatures today will be the increase in cloud cover and precip chances as deeper moisture moves into the region. Daytime highs will still reach the low to mid 90s, so again, it'll still be hot by our standards.
Meanwhile, a closed system of low pressure is spinning off the coast of northern California.
(Today through Monday) 500 mb high pressure centered over the Florida Panhandle will generally be the dominant weather feature over the BRO CWFA during the period.
The upper high currently centered over Colorado will remain in place. Surface winds will remain out of the south through most of the day thanks to surface lee troughing.
Cooler today with temperatures in most locations only a couple to a few degrees above normal. High pressure centered over the four-corners region today with mid-level moisture continuing to spread up across central and northern Nevada. Temperatures will trend cooler today with highs only a few degrees above normal. Highs trend a couple degrees cooler Monday afternoon with temperatures near-normal.
A Red Flag Warning has been issued for locations forecast to see the highest storm coverage. Water vapor satellite imagery early this morning showed the high pressure system that has been responsible for the recent stretch of unseasonably warm, dry conditions was located near the central Colorado/New Mexico border. Despite more cloud cover today, temperatures are still forecast to be 5 to 10 degrees warmer than seasonal normals. A Heat Advisory remains in effect for the lower valleys until 9 PM this evening. This means the threat for heavy rainfall is on the lower side, but conditions will be favorable for gusty outflow winds up to 50 mph. Sensible weather conditions will be somewhat of a rinse and repeat on Monday afternoon with more showers and storms rotating around the high overhead.
608 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 (Today and tonight) The upper level ridge is currently centered over southern Colorado and northern New Mexico early this morning. This ridge will remain in place, and possibly even slightly expand somewhat to the southeast. Tonight, south/southeast winds will diminish to 5 to 10 mph, with lows mainly in the low to mid 70s.
This may be due to building high pressure at the low/mid levels from the E/SE. And as such, temperatures will run a bit warmer across our northern CWA with highs in the mid to up- per 90s. with lows in the lower to mid 70s (around 80 at the immediate coast).
An upper level ridge will remain in control over Western Washington through the week ahead for continued dry conditions and above normal temperatures.
Currently, cloud cover riding the along the border of high pressure is propagating NE through the area.
Along with Palo Duro Canyon, the northeastern combined Panhandles is where the highest probabilities of reaching and/or exceeding 105 degrees this afternoon is expected, in which headlines for Heat exist this afternoon. Going into tomorrow, some of the latest 14/00Z model and numerical data shows the main center of the H500 high pressure system slowly shift south along the AZ/NM stateline.
Will continue the low pops. The shift in flow will bring much cooler (mild) temperatures back to the region, while overall precipitation chances diminishing as drier/more stable air moves in place. Starting off today dry and stable with weak high pressure in western Manitoba. Cold front looks to move east fast enough so that Monday 12z onward may see remaining showers or a few t-storms, the severe risk is gone.
High pressure over the Four Corners will drive monsoonal moisture into Arizona. Storms should initially fire over the higher terrain, but as outflows develop, storms should move southwestward off the terrain into the lower elevations. High pressure begins to shift further eastward slightly, allowing for more moisture to be advected northward. Latest hi-res guidance has the greatest chances for storms on Monday mainly along and north of the Mogollon Rim, before transitioning southward into the lower deserts.
- Slightly cooler today, but high humidity will likely bring high heat index readings of 95 to 105 degrees, hottest south of the I-90 corridor.
High pressure ridging which has been bringing very hot temperatures is shifting eastward with a weak trough along the coast, bringing a cooling trend into the area. The highest coverage and NBM probabilities are along the Sierra crest (20-40%) with generally southerly steering flow.
650 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 (Today through Monday) A broad, inverted upper trough will remain to the west and northwest of the region through early this week.
617 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 (Today through Monday) 500 mb high pressure centered over the Florida Panhandle will generally be the dominant weather feature over the BRO CWFA during the period.
A weak cold front will move through the region today bringing winds out of the northwest. This will bring down higher pressure from the north lowering temperatures into the high 80s to low 90s for tomorrow. Torgerson Models in good agreement as high pressure remains the dominant weather feature across our region through the week.
Today's shower and thunderstorm activity looks most widespread along the Hi-Line and then over the southwest and central areas south of the highway 200 corridor. The latest 3 to 7 day cluster analysis still favors the upper level ridge amplifying mid- late week, yielding more hot and dry conditions while lingering moisture bring daily chances for isolated to scattered showers and storms. Shower/thunder activity will be mostly concentrated over two areas, central and southwestern MT south of the highway 200 corridor and then along the Hi-Line (KCTB, KHVR). The mention of thunder was left out of the TAFs for now given the lower confidence of storm occurrence at the terminals.
558 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 (Today) Hot and humid conditions intensify today across the region as the mid level ridge continues to expand eastward into the Plains. Highs today should be a few degrees warmer than yesterday, topping out in the upper 90s across much of eastern Oklahoma into western Arkansas. That combined with dewpoints in the low 70s will yield heat index values in excess of 100 to 108 degrees this afternoon.
Today's shower and thunderstorm activity looks most widespread along the Hi-Line and then over the southwest and central areas south of the highway 200 corridor. The latest 3 to 7 day cluster analysis still favors the upper level ridge amplifying mid- late week, yielding more hot and dry conditions while lingering moisture bring daily chances for isolated to scattered showers and storms.
This gives us heat indices already in the low 100s, and this should continue to climb this afternoon as we are still forecasting highs this afternoon near 90F.
628 AM EDT Sun Jul 14 2024 (Today and tonight) Ridging overhead today will once again allow high temperatures to rise into the mid to upper 90s this afternoon.
A 15-35% chance of thunderstorms in the high elevations through today can produce dry lightning with a less than 10% chance of wetting rain. The high risk of grass fires in the valley continues, with fire behavior enhanced even with low wind speeds this weekend. The ridge currently centered over the Four Corners continues to pull up just enough moisture to fuel strong thunderstorms.