Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
335 PM CST Mon Nov 4 2024 - Rain showers exit this evening with the cold front. - A second, fast-moving low pressure system will bring another round of showers for Tuesday. The cold front situated over northwestern Wisconsin is pushing out the rain showers seen throughout the day. The upper level trough over the southwest CONUS will quickly move northeast tonight into Tuesday, bringing another quick round of showers, particularly for northwest Wisconsin. The upper level closed low will still camp out in the southwest US, putting us once again in split upper level flow above a ridge. This will keep us dry and closer to normal temperatures under either zonal flow or a high pressure system for the rest of the work week.
550 PM CST Mon Nov 4 2024 - Rain showers exit this evening with the cold front. - A second, fast-moving low pressure system will bring another round of showers for Tuesday. The cold front situated over northwestern Wisconsin is pushing out the rain showers seen throughout the day. The upper level trough over the southwest CONUS will quickly move northeast tonight into Tuesday, bringing another quick round of showers, particularly for northwest Wisconsin. The upper level closed low will still camp out in the southwest US, putting us once again in split upper level flow above a ridge. This will keep us dry and closer to normal temperatures under either zonal flow or a high pressure system for the rest of the work week.
Gusty north winds within the lower Colorado River Valley will gradually diminish tonight.
Warm and humid weather will give way to gusty winds and thunderstorms tomorrow with the passage of a cold front.
Other than some minor tweaks to PoPs this evening based on current radar trends, the forecast remains in good shape at this time as the increasing dewpoints will allow for overnight lows to be a few degrees warmer than last night in most areas with values falling to the upper 60s across the north to low/mid 70s elsewhere. Stacked ridging continues to hold over Florida through Tuesday, while a deep upper trough slowly moves from the Rockies into Plains region.
852 PM EST Mon Nov 4 2024 * A strong upper level ridge will keep conditions mainly dry and winds slightly gusty through Tuesday.
An active weather pattern will help to keep the Desert Southwest cooler than normal through most of the week, while generally dry conditions will prevail. Current atmospheric analysis shows the potent trough that helped provide some showers and thunderstorms to south-central Arizona over the weekend now centered over New Mexico. With negative height anomalies holding onto their influence over the region, temperatures this afternoon will continue to be below normal for this time of year, with highs across the lower deserts ranging generally in the lower to middle 70s. A slight warmup is anticipated for Tuesday as regional heights aloft increase but afternoon highs will still run below normal, ranging from the lower to upper 70s, with perhaps a few locations, mainly out in SE California, reaching 80 degrees.
523 PM CST Mon Nov 4 2024 (This evening through Tuesday night) We are stuck in an interesting pattern for this time of year that is holding our daytime highs somewhat warmer than normal, normal being in the low to mid 70s. This is due to the persistence of the Bermuda high reaching just far enough west to affect us and hold the effects of a trough centered over the western US just west of us.
505 PM CST Mon Nov 4 2024 (Rest of today through Tuesday) A large trough over the central portion of the country is driving a steady southerly flow across the southeast states.
This front is expected to decrease in forward speed as it encounters resistance from downstream ridging, and much of the activity associated with the front will remain to our northwest even as the front gets somewhat closer tonight. Meanwhile, a mid-level impulse is expected to track northward across Georgia, tapping into increasing PWAT values driven by southerly flow between the trough and ridge and the outer envelope of Tropical Storm Rafael.
1214 AM PST Tue Nov 5 2024 * A backdoor dry cold front brings gusty northeast winds late Tuesday into Wednesday.
Northerly wind and cooler air are filtering into the region with morning pre-dawn temperatures in the mid 50s across the southern Edwards Plateau and Hill Country to the low to mid 60s elsewhere.
1131 PM CST Mon Nov 4 2024 (This evening through Tuesday) High pressure will move off the eastern coast with low and mid level winds from the south and southeast, bringing plenty of moisture advection and low level clouds to the area beginning tonight through Tuesday afternoon. Temperatures will remain well above normal for this time of year, for both low temperatures tonight and high temperatures Tuesday afternoon with the low clouds over the area tonight and the low and mid level flow bringing plenty of warm air advection through the short term.
Calmer and slightly warmer conditions today before a reinforcing shot of gusty north winds and below-normal temperatures arrives this evening behind a cold front.
Discussion: Another warm day on tap, thanks to the offshore upper ridge continuing to keep a mild airmass locked in place.
704 PM PST Mon Nov 4 2024 Locally strong winds will occur around Wenatchee, Ellensburg, Vantage, and Waterville tonight behind a strong cold front. Tuesday will be sunny and breezy with high temperature ranging from the mid 40s to the low 50s.
Warmed many overnight lows with line arriving, but cool air lagging a bit with cooler temps beyond the overnight period. Guidance was a little faster for this afternoon issuance with trends on the HRRR quite reasonable for whats on paper now and a little warmer linger before CCA can set up by mid morning.
Warmed many overnight lows with line arriving, but cool air lagging a bit with cooler temps beyond the overnight period.
Strong deep-layer SW flow continues to overspread the region as the OH Vly remains wedged between an anomalously-strong midlevel high parked off the Carolina coastline and a deep digging trof in the central CONUS. This highly-meridional flow has brought unusually warm/moist air to the area, with overnight lows expected to dip only into the upper 50s and lower 60s. Low temperatures will range from the middle 50s to the lower 60s. A cold front may still be lingering near or south of the Ohio River on Wednesday.
1046 PM CST Mon Nov 4 2024 Warmed many overnight lows with line arriving, but cool air lagging a bit with cooler temps beyond the overnight period. Guidance was a little faster for this afternoon issuance with trends on the HRRR quite reasonable for whats on paper now and a little warmer linger before CCA can set up by mid morning.
Ridging situated to our east will continue to extend across the state through the day.
Texas, as this cold front continues to plow east. This heavier convection should fully clear the region by Wednesday morning, with the cold front stalling shortly thereafter. However, the front will begin to slowly retrograde some into Wednesday, allowing for highs to return back into the low to upper-70s area- wide.
As these weak troughs move ashore, a few showers will be possible, along with increases in cloud coverage. Lows Tonight will range from the middle 60s inland, to the lower 70s coast. (Tuesday through Wednesday night) Onshore flow continues into Tuesday and Wednesday as high pressure ridging covers the area from the high pressure system in the northeast as it moves into the Atlantic.
336 AM EST Tue Nov 5 2024 Windy and warm weather will continue today ahead of a cold front.
The cold front situated over northwestern Wisconsin is pushing out the rain showers seen throughout the day. The upper level trough over the southwest CONUS will quickly move northeast tonight into Tuesday, bringing another quick round of showers, particularly for northwest Wisconsin. The upper level closed low will still camp out in the southwest US, putting us once again in split upper level flow above a ridge. This will keep us dry and closer to normal temperatures under either zonal flow or a high pressure system for the rest of the work week.
Cooler temperatures are on tap for Today with highs in the 60s to lower 70s as drier air continues to move into the region behind the departing cold front.
Nature of instability and shear profiles suggest the highest support for storm organization is along the entire Oklahoma/Arkansas border. A cold front across central Oklahoma is expected to continue to promote convective development, with the activity building upscale, likely forming a QLCS type system. The cold front will slow as it progresses eastward.
The 00Z radiosonde from this evening shows very dry air aloft, but the moisture in the lower levels has been enough to keep this activity going. There have been no changes made to the Tropical Storm Warning in effect for the Lower and Middle Keys, including the adjacent waters.
332 AM EST Tue Nov 5 2024 Strong high pressure across New England will move off the East Coast over the next few days.
1136 PM CST Mon Nov 4 2024 Warm and humid weather will give way to gusty winds and thunderstorms tomorrow with the passage of a cold front.
A cold front extends southwestward through the Ozarks into the Arklatex region. The cold front will make eastward progress today with showers entering the northwest part of our area likely after 00z.
1000 PM CST Mon Nov 4 2024 - Rain showers exit this evening with the cold front. - A second, fast-moving low pressure system will bring another round of showers for Tuesday. The cold front situated over northwestern Wisconsin is pushing out the rain showers seen throughout the day. The upper level trough over the southwest CONUS will quickly move northeast tonight into Tuesday, bringing another quick round of showers, particularly for northwest Wisconsin. The upper level closed low will still camp out in the southwest US, putting us once again in split upper level flow above a ridge. This will keep us dry and closer to normal temperatures under either zonal flow or a high pressure system for the rest of the work week.
Tranquil wx will return for mid to late week along with cooler temps as a high pressure ridge gradually builds in from the west.
1146 PM CST Mon Nov 4 2024 (This evening through Tuesday night) We are stuck in an interesting pattern for this time of year that is holding our daytime highs somewhat warmer than normal, normal being in the low to mid 70s. This is due to the persistence of the Bermuda high reaching just far enough west to affect us and hold the effects of a trough centered over the western US just west of us.
Other than some minor tweaks to PoPs this evening based on current radar trends, the forecast remains in good shape at this time as the increasing dewpoints will allow for overnight lows to be a few degrees warmer than last night in most areas with values falling to the upper 60s across the north to low/mid 70s elsewhere.
Valley rain and mountain snow showers with a cold front moved through our CWA this evening. Colder air will come in overnight and Tuesday under the upper trough, with gusty northwest winds on Tuesday, and a chance of snow showers in the mountains, clearing Tuesday night.
Have blended in some slightly cooler guidance in the heart of the wedge where it may not mix completely out for MaxT's on Tuesday. The highest pops/QPF should be for the Wednesday period of the short term forecast.
1105 PM CST Mon Nov 4 2024 Updated at 1026 PM CST Mon Nov 4 2024 - Showers diminishing this evening then becoming blustery behind a cold front.
Early morning satellite and radar imagery show a departing cold front now SE of Idaho with lingering NW upslope flow over the mountains continuing to lead to isolated to scattered snow showers. Following highs today in 30s to low 40s, a colder and dry airmass will build in tonight on the leading edge of a ridge of high pressure as our system exits to the east.
Current surface analysis shows low pressure centered over the KS/MS border which is accompanied by a broad precipitation band that extends all the way from southern MN down to TX. The entire system is expected to be forced north- northeastward as this morning progresses thanks to a deepening trough over the western CONUS. As of now, areas east of a line from Cambridge down to Fairmont have the strongest confidence of seeing at least a half inch of rain and near three quarters of an inch in a few isolated areas. Although one item to note are areas along the Buffalo Ridge up to Lake Mile Lakes could potentially see a few flakes mixed in with the rain given slightly colder air aloft.
Dry and slightly warmer conditions are expected for today.
745 AM EST Tue Nov 5 2024 Strong high pressure across New England will move off the East Coast over the next few days.
Highs Wednesday will likely not reach above freezing during the day. The trough digs across the state today, keeping the westerly flow intact for continued snowfall on the western mountains. As the trough moves east and also stretches southward, winds aloft switch more from the north. As the trough continues east, wraparound colder air drives southward with a cold front late Tuesday night/early Wednesday. Temperatures will generally stay steady in the 20s and low 30s, with most areas staying below freezing through the day.
Early morning surface analysis had a ridge nosing into our CWA from the east while a 1002mb low over the central Plains had a cold front nearing the ArkLaTex. The pressure gradient between the ridge and the low was already contributing to gusty winds over the northwest portions of our CWA. These gusty winds will increase this morning ahead of the cold front that will approach our CWA. This cold front will stall across our northwest zones tonight. Showers and thunderstorms will increase in coverage along and ahead of the cold front. Temperatures will be a little cooler tonight but without any change in airmass, continue warmer than normal.
513 AM CST Tue Nov 5 2024 - Cold front arrives tonight, with cooler conditions Tuesday through the end of the week.
Early this morning, a baggy area of low pressure is centered from roughly Kansas City to Dubuque with a broad area of warm air advection associated with a strong low level jet in place across much of central Illinois.
High pressure has begun to fill back in over the area early today. It is no question the higher elevations will be gusty, the main question is how much will make it to the valleys.
Scattered thunderstorms are possible, including the chance of a few strong surface based storms along the warm front that moves across Central East Central Wisconsin during the afternoon.
- Ridge of high pressure for the latter part of the work week.
933 AM EST Tue Nov 5 2024 Windy and warm weather will continue today ahead of a cold front.
631 AM EST Tue Nov 5 2024 Windy and warm weather will continue today ahead of a cold front.
959 AM EST Tue Nov 5 2024 Strong high pressure across New England will move off the East Coast over the next few days.
First, today into Wednesday morning, we will be in the transition zone between a departing trough and arriving ridge.
308 AM MST Tue Nov 5 2024 An active, but overall dry weather pattern will help to keep the Desert Southwest cooler than normal through the rest of the week.
Breezes will increase ahead of its approach during the overnight hours tonight and into tomorrow with the strongest breezes expected in the Lower and Middle Keys where a Tropical Storm Watch is still in effect.
There is a low (<20%) chance of light freezing rain closer to the ND border before 8 am (15Z) this morning. WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: A weak cold front is moving across northeast Montana early this morning with an area of light rain. A few locations near the ND border have below freezing temperatures at 2 am MST (09Z) which could allow for isolated areas of light freezing rain.
Highs Wednesday will likely not reach above freezing during the day. The trough digs across the state today, keeping the westerly flow intact for continued snowfall on the western mountains. As the trough moves east and also stretches southward, winds aloft switch more from the north. As the trough continues east, wraparound colder air drives southward with a cold front late Tuesday night/early Wednesday. Temperatures will generally stay steady in the 20s and low 30s, with most areas staying below freezing through the day. Due to the lower chances, have left direct mention out of the TAFs, but have included scattered low clouds. A cold front passes through late this evening.
(Tonight) Isolated pockets of light rain continue to push across the Tennessee Valley this afternoon ahead of an approaching cold front from the west.
You can also make out the weak cyclonic spin to the clouds along the northwestern Cuba coastline which is associated with the weak low pressure center we saw yesterday over the Bahamas. 4 inches remaining offshore to the south of the Lower Keys. Temperatures along the Island Chain are in the lower to mid 80s with dew points in the mid to upper 70s. The 12z morning sounding shows the atmosphere moistening up quite a bit from just this time yesterday, especially in the low to mid levels. However, this moisture is mostly in the low to mid levels with still quite a bit of dry air in the upper levels limiting any thunder threat for now. Therefore, we have plenty of moisture as well as an area of weak low pressure moving westward along the northwestern Cuba coastline.
1046 AM CST Tue Nov 5 2024 - Cold front arrives tonight, with cooler conditions Tuesday through the end of the week.
953 AM CST Tue Nov 5 2024 KSHV radar continues to showcase a linear mode of convective showers moving eastward across the CWA, along with the cold front that will guide it. Aside from this, previous rainfall and robust cloud coverage should keep temperatures mild, in the low to mid 70's for many, with near 80 deg F across the east. Texas, as this cold front continues to plow east. This heavier convection should fully clear the region by Wednesday morning, with the cold front stalling shortly thereafter. However, the front will begin to slowly retrograde some into Wednesday, allowing for highs to return back into the low to upper-70s area- wide.
Similar pattern to yesterday with stacked ridging over the area and large dry air aloft above 10k ft as seen in 12Z TBW sounding while strong low level SE flow continues to bring Atlantic moisture, clouds and fast moving rain showers to the area today. Ridging situated to our east will continue to extend across the state through the day.
Showers will continue, mainly in the higher elevations, today, with snow levels near valley floors. Little or no additional snow accumulations are expected in the lower valleys, but an additional inch or two are expected above 4500 feet.
Upper ridge beginning to slide further into the W Atlantic as Plains states longwave trough slowly moves eastward. At the surface, tightening pressure gradient between strong high pressure in the W Atlantic and Tropical Storm Rafael in the NW Caribbean Sea will continue to produce breezy E-SE winds through Wednesday.
TONIGHT: rain exiting, winds subsiding, cooler (but seasonable) air moving in Area of low pressure at the sfc was located over southwest WI early this afternoon with a warm front front due east of it and a cold front dropping to the south. Along the cold front convection has fired in a very narrow ribbon of instability. This line will will lift northeast with the low/front and could bring some rumbles of thunder to parts of southwest-central WI. With the shift in the low positioning, parts of southeast MN into north-central WI will get a bit more rain than previously forecast, with amounts topping out from 1/2 to 1". Winds will be on the decrease this evening becoming more light and variable as weak high pressure then builds in later in the day Wednesday.
Upper trough that brought our active weather the last several days is tracking across the Mississippi Valley leaving pesky low clouds across KS in its wake. At the same time, a cold front will sag into western KS with some strong overrunning resulting in increasing precip chances for Wed night into Thu for locations west of I-135. Upper low will slowly start to slide east on Thu night and by 12z Fri will be located over central NM. How much rain we get on Sat will depend on how far east the upper low tracks. The exception will be Wed and Thu over central KS as the cold front tries to slide-in.
131 PM CST Tue Nov 5 2024 - Widespread precip is moving through the area along with a slow moving cold front.
1202 PM CST Tue Nov 5 2024 KSHV radar continues to showcase a linear mode of convective showers moving eastward across the CWA, along with the cold front that will guide it. Aside from this, previous rainfall and robust cloud coverage should keep temperatures mild, in the low to mid 70's for many, with near 80 deg F across the east. Low AC cigs will persist W of the lower cigs near and W of the upper trough axis over WCntrl TX, although these cigs will clear much of E TX/SW AR by early to mid-evening.
1255 PM PST Tue Nov 5 2024 * A backdoor dry cold front brings gusty northeast winds late today into Wednesday morning.
The rain will end from west to east late this afternoon and evening as the cold front sweeps through the area. Clouds will slowly break up overnight as winds decrease but temperatures should remain above freezing. Dry and cooler conditions will be seen across the area on Wednesday with light winds.
Highs Wednesday will likely not reach above freezing during the day. The trough digs across the state today, keeping the westerly flow intact for continued snowfall on the western mountains. As the trough moves east and also stretches southward, winds aloft switch more from the north. As the trough continues east, wraparound colder air drives southward with a cold front late Tuesday night/early Wednesday. Temperatures will generally stay steady in the 20s and low 30s, with most areas staying below freezing through the day. Gusty northwesterly winds generally up to 25kts for all TAF sites behind the cold front.
Upper low continues to rotate over the Northern Rockies/Western Plains this afternoon, transitioning to split flow tonight.
NBM continues to look kinda on the high side for gust potential overnight tonight in the Delta area. a pretty progressive pattern will allow some ridging to build in and decrease the pressure gradient for decreasing winds through the morning and day.
A cold front will bring scattered rain showers to the region, though many south of New York's Southern Tier will likely stay dry. Wednesday will be mild but then temperatures trend cooler into the start of the weekend. A ridge of high pressure will slowly drift eastward tonight. Winds will calm some this evening but then increase tonight as a cold front approaches from the north. This cold front will bring rain showers to portions of central NY by Wednesday morning. Overnight, temps fall into the 40s and low 50s as cool, dry air filters in behind the cold front. 230 PM Update: A deep trough will be digging into the west with an upstream ridge attempting to build into the northeast in the short term.
- Cooler, drier, and quieter conditions are forecast for the second half of the week Issued 249 PM CST Tue Nov 5 2024 Tonight through Wednesday night: A 1000 mb low over Juneau and Adams County will move to nrn Lake MI early this evening. The showers will end by early evening over ern WI with the cold front to follow for later in the evening. Nwly sfc winds and cold advection will weaken on Wed with high pressure settling over srn WI for Wed nt. High temps in the lower to middle 50s for Wed.
300 PM EST Tue Nov 5 2024 High pressure offshore will produce well above normal temperatures through late week.
Upper level jet core is now finally pulling the upstream trough NE with associated frontal boundary making slow eastward progress. As has been discussed, the parent trough will be rapidly weakening by tonight with a sheared out vort max passing largely to our north. This causes midlevel ridging to build over the Upper Midwest through Fri as another trough slides from Ontario to the North Atlantic.