Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Midday satellite and radar imagery show a H5 trough continuing to build into SE Idaho and the NRN Rockies from the Pacific which will support daily, scattered to widespread precipitation chances through Monday as winds peak on Monday. A rain/snow mix will be possible across the Lower Snake River Plain and ERN Magic Valley region while predominant snow remains favored elsewhere. Given W/NW moisture transport with this system, we are still expecting highest snow totals across the SRN/ERN Highlands SE of the Snake River Plain where a mix of Winter Weather Advisories and Winter Storm Warnings remain in effect now through Monday night to capture this upslope enhancement into the higher terrain.
516 PM CST Sun Feb 16 2025 - Breezy and much warmer on Monday.
Some cooler drier air has already moved in to locations from around the Interstate 4 corridor northward with the real push later tonight as the northerly flow increases. (00Z TAFS) Areas of MVFR ceilings remain possible early tonight ahead of the cold front that is moving southeast across the region at this time. The cold front continues to slowly move SE over the area. Behind the front, high pressure will build back in.
- Snow continues through tomorrow night with the highest amounts in the northern and central mountains where Winter Weather Warnings and Advisories are in effect. Amounts in the highest peaks of the Park Range could measure in at upwards of 30" by the end of this system.
A Gale Warning is in effect for all open waters of Lake Michigan until Midnight, then a Heavy Freezing Spray Warning is in effect until late Monday night.
613 PM EST Sun Feb 16 2025 (Through Monday) Following this mornings cold front, a cooler and drier air mass has quickly arrived over the region on the heels of low-level northwest flow. However, low-level flow will gradually turn more northerly tonight, then northeasterly on Monday, as a high pressure ridge extending out from the Upper Midwest moves by to our north. As high pressure exerts more influence on our weather and the low- level flow clocks around, we should lose a lot of the post-frontal strato-cu late tonight.
A mostly dry and mild weather pattern continues through much of this week across northern Arizona as high pressure remains centered just off the southern California coast. As mid to upper-level cloud cover continues to increase this evening and overnight, expect relatively warmer temperatures tonight, a few degrees above average for this time of year. West-southwest winds increase on Monday as a broad area of low pressure moves across the Intermountain West and into the Rockies.
638 PM EST Sun Feb 16 2025 Cold, dry air will filter into the region tonight behind a departing cold front.
pdf Cooler and drier air will continue to ushering southward across the area tonight trailing today's squall line and cold front passage. No major changes to ongoing forecast other than to update to remove the High Rip Current risk for today.
Amidst midlevel cyclonic flow, an embedded disturbance pivoting around the base of the trof is providing just enough forcing within a sufficiently cold/saturated profile to produce scattered to numerous SHSN and widespread light SN this evening. Stiff WNW winds and frigid temps will result in wind chill values ranging from near 10 below zero in WC OH to 10 above zero in the lower Scioto Valley and NE KY. Arctic high pressure is forecast to build/wedge southeast into the Ohio Valley on Monday. The high will gradually weaken as it shifts slowly south into the central Plains through the end of the work week.
(This evening through Monday Night) Much cooler conditions across the region today in wake of yesterday's cold front. By tonight, high pressure will settle across the region. We should see sub-freezing temps areawide, with lows ranging from the low 20s to around 30 degrees. Dry conditions will remain on Monday, but light southerly winds will return by Monday afternoon as high pressure slides east of the region. This will allow for warmer temps with highs in the 50s areawide. This warming trend will continue into Monday night along with increasing clouds, with only freezing temps expected in our extreme northern forecast zones, which includes portions SE Oklahoma and adjacent SW Arkansas.
(This afternoon through Monday night) The potent cold front and squall line from this morning cleared the area by mid to late morning. A few light snow showers remain possible over the highest elevations of the N this evening, but only a dusting to a tenth of an inch of snow are expected. Lows tonight will be much colder, with readings ranging from near 20 in the NE mountains to near freezing in the extreme SE zones. Highs will be 5 to 10 degrees below normal, ranging from the lower to mid 40s across the N to the mid 50s across the S. Under mostly clear skies, lows Monday night will range from the mid 20s in the N to the lower to mid 30s in the SE.
Arctic high pressure is forecast to build/wedge southeast into the Ohio Valley on Monday. The high will gradually weaken as it shifts slowly south into the central Plains through the end of the work week.
617 PM CST Sun Feb 16 2025 (This evening through Monday Night) Much cooler conditions across the region today in wake of yesterday's cold front. By tonight, high pressure will settle across the region. We should see sub-freezing temps areawide, with lows ranging from the low 20s to around 30 degrees. Dry conditions will remain on Monday, but light southerly winds will return by Monday afternoon as high pressure slides east of the region. This will allow for warmer temps with highs in the 50s areawide. This warming trend will continue into Monday night along with increasing clouds, with only freezing temps expected in our extreme northern forecast zones, which includes portions SE Oklahoma and adjacent SW Arkansas.
323 AM EST Mon Feb 17 2025 Arctic high pressure will build into the region today and tonight, holding the area into midweek. An upper level low passes through the Great Lakes mid week. High pressure continues for the end of the week. The southern Great Lakes region is undergoing a gradual erosion of the lower level moisture and a shifting of the streamlines from a northwesterly direction to more westerly. For temperatures today, not much recovery from the early morning lows that will end up in the lower to mid teens. Upper level trough across the Upper Midwest will continue to glide east towards the Great Lakes region through the short term.
A mostly dry and mild weather pattern continues through much of this week across northern Arizona as high pressure remains centered just off the southern California coast. Temperatures across northern Arizona are the same to as much as 11 degrees warmer than last evening. As mid to upper-level cloud cover continues to increase this evening and overnight, expect relatively warmer temperatures tonight, a few degrees above average for this time of year. West-southwest winds increase on Monday as a broad area of low pressure moves across the Intermountain West and into the Rockies.
1209 AM EST Mon Feb 17 2025 (This afternoon through Monday) A cold front associated with an area of low pressure moving across the eastern United States is crossing North Florida this morning and is forecast to move across the peninsula through the day before reaching South Florida this evening/tonight. Temperatures on Monday will be more moderated with cooler air arriving with the northerly flow. Max temps for Monday will range from the mid 70s along the Atlantic to the lower 80s along the Atlantic coast as northeasterly flow develops.
325 AM EST Mon Feb 17 2025 A frontal boundary continues to move south across the peninsula this morning, with low-level winds turning north, ushering in a cooler and drier air mass. This first cool-down will be brief, however, as winds quickly veer to easterly and then southeasterly ahead of another cold front.
This will maintain a light north wind that will help result in much cooler than normal morning lows from the upper 20s north to the lower 30s south. Heading through the night, the low level pressure gradient will relax as surface ridging begins to build in from the north. Monday will be seasonably cool but warmer than today with the help of more plentiful sun.
- An arctic cold front is expected to affect the area by the middle of the upcoming week.
317 AM EST Mon Feb 17 2025 Continental Polar high pressure will build across the Middle Atlantic and Carolinas through Tuesday night.
(Rest of tonight) Mid-level WNW flow of 70-80 knots will persist across the TN Valley overnight as a cold core upper low shifts southeastward from Manitoba into southwestern Ontario.
1150 PM CST Sun Feb 16 2025 (Rest of tonight) Mid-level WNW flow of 70-80 knots will persist across the TN Valley overnight as a cold core upper low shifts southeastward from Manitoba into southwestern Ontario.
The strong low pressure that brought heavy rain and light snow to the area continues to influence our baseline wind conditions, with westerly winds expected throughout the day. The lower temperatures and lingering light winds support wind chill values between -5 and -10 across the northern half of the area, and this will remain mentioned in the HWO. Very subtle ridging occurs within the mostly zonal mid-level flow, decreasing the potential for additional snow to enter the area throughout the day.
105 AM EST Mon Feb 17 2025 Continental Polar high pressure will build across the Middle Atlantic and Carolinas through Tuesday night.
pdf Cooler and drier air will continue to ushering southward across the area tonight trailing today's squall line and cold front passage. No major changes to ongoing forecast other than to update to remove the High Rip Current risk for today. Calm winds and clearer skies will allow for radiational cooling over the area with overnight lows in the lower to mid 30s over inland Georgia creating the potential for frost formation. High pressure ridging will continue over the area Tuesday, as a low pressure system begins to build in the Gulf. Daytime highs will be warmer than Monday with highs in the low to upper 60s over southeast Georgia and upper 60s to mid 70s over northeast Florida. Coastal temperatures will be in the low to mid 50s.
1030 PM CST Sun Feb 16 2025 - Breezy and much warmer on Monday.
Delta T's are already fairly high in the upper teens C and that will increase further tonight due to cold air advection into the lower to middle 20s C.
Winds will shift from the north/northeast behind the front, ushering in a cooler and drier airmass over the region later tonight into tomorrow. This will help moderate temperatures across the region, with highs in the low 70s across the East Coast and low 80s across southwest Florida each day.
905 PM PST Sun Feb 16 2025 Dry but a little cooler for Monday and Tuesday, with onshore flow returning. The presence of the high clouds is likely inhibiting the formation of the low clouds but hi-res models continue to indicate the formation of a coastal eddy which could also play a role. A trough of low pressure moving inland to the north tomorrow through Tuesday will likely result in a cooling trend through the middle part of the work week (with the exception of the deserts). In addition, there will be stronger winds for the mountains and deserts by later in the evening on Monday through Tuesday morning, with gusts from 40 to 50 mph being possible across some of the higher terrain.
229 AM EST Mon Feb 17 2025 Cold, dry air will filter into the region behind the departing cold front today. A quite cool and dry air mass will settle over the area through Tuesday ahead of a developing low pressure system to our west.
- Snow continues through tomorrow night with the highest amounts in the northern and central mountains where Winter Weather Warnings and Advisories are in effect. Amounts in the highest peaks of the Park Range could measure in at upwards of 30" by the end of this system. While the best forcing and deepest moisture will be decreasing, an upper level trough, weak but favorable orographics and lingering moisture will all lend themselves to keep this light snow in the forecast through Tuesday evening.
The upper level pattern changes very little for Idaho; northwesterly flow does increase strongly on Tue morning as the upper level ridge moves from the Pacific to the North American coast. Very little change in the high temperatures from day to day. Lower elevations will struggle to get to above freezing in the lower Snake River plain, eastern Magic Valley, and lower elevations of the South hills. Lows will be from near zero for the upper basins of the central Idaho mountains to the lower to middle 20s in the Snake River plain.
Near the surface, an area of low pressure remains anchored in southeast Colorado. Ahead of the approaching system, arctic air will surge southward through western Kansas in wake of a cold front pushing through western Kansas down into the Texas Panhandle/western Oklahoma.
1142 PM CST Sun Feb 16 2025 - A cold front and coastal low late Tue / early Wed to bring risk of excessive rainfall and severe weather.
- An arctic cold front is expected to affect the area by the middle of this week.
Updated at 308 AM CST Mon Feb 17 2025 - A mild start to the week turns cold as an Arctic cold front sweeps through on Tuesday.
Model consensus continues to strongly support the potential for a long-duration significant snowfall event tonight through Tuesday evening, as upper troughing approaching from the west-northwest interacts with a strong/deep Arctic frontal zone oozing in from the north. Per deterministic and ensemble consensus, bitter cold Arctic air is slated to blast south into the region starting tonight, and persisting through late week, as central North American low pressure settles south into the northern CONUS, allowing unusually strong Arctic high pressure to settle south across the CONUS.
The low static stability stays more on the Missouri side, keeping higher rates away from the state. The upper level trough has trended deeper this forecast, forming a closed low that will settle partially over the northern half of the state and encourage the development of stratus and perhaps some light snow.
The weather will be characterized by cold overnight conditions and cooler highs, with no significant weather anticipated beyond some windy conditions today. A deep upper-level trough will continue to dig into the area, bringing with it substantial cold air advection which will plunge our overnight lows below freezing throughout the CWA tonight, and moderate our daytime highs into the 50F range.
A mostly dry and mild weather pattern continues through much of this week across northern Arizona as high pressure remains centered just off the southern California coast. Westerly flow aloft will increase across our region today as a trough over the northwest US shifts southeastward into the Rockies and out into the plains by Tuesday. Winds will decrease after sunset but not be completely calm as the trough continues to approach. Highs Tuesday will be a few degrees cooler along/south of the Mogollon Rim and up to 10 degrees cooler in northeast Arizona as the trough clips the state.
711 AM EST Mon Feb 17 2025 A frontal boundary continues to move south across the peninsula this morning, with low-level winds turning north, ushering in a cooler and drier air mass. This first cool-down will be brief, however, as winds quickly veer to easterly and then southeasterly ahead of another cold front.
620 AM EST Mon Feb 17 2025 Continental Polar high pressure will build across the Middle Atlantic and Carolinas through Tuesday night.
629 AM EST Mon Feb 17 2025 Arctic high pressure will build into the region today and tonight, holding the area into midweek. An upper level low passes through the Great Lakes mid week. High pressure continues for the end of the week. The southern Great Lakes region is undergoing a gradual erosion of the lower level moisture and a shifting of the streamlines from a northwesterly direction to more westerly. For temperatures today, not much recovery from the early morning lows that will end up in the lower to mid teens. Upper level trough across the Upper Midwest will continue to glide east towards the Great Lakes region through the short term.
This rain and snow will finish up with ridging building in Tuesday, but a return to rain and snow will come back by the afternoon, mainly for areas near and west of the Cascades.
513 AM CST Mon Feb 17 2025 Updated at 512 AM CST Mon Feb 17 2025 - A mild start to the week turns cold as an Arctic cold front sweeps through on Tuesday.
Persistence forecasts of warmer than normal days over the Florida Keys are coming to an end today. A cold front entering our Outer Gulf waters is moving slowly towards the Island Chain with passage across Key West in the early morning hours. The cold front lost a great deal of its potency, and is expected to stall over the Straits of Florida. The feature can be observed in the mid-levels as a very positively tilted trough located over the Dakotas. Impacts associated with this trough and its associated arctic outburst will take a few days to reach Key West. While the trough deepens it will weaken the pressure gradient across south Florida.
Additionally, the warm air advection will will support gradually warmer surface temperatures through the period. High temperatures this afternoon will range from the low to mid 70s, with overnight lows temperatures in the upper 50s to mid 60s. High temperatures Tuesday will likely climb to the low to mid 80s.
924 AM EST Mon Feb 17 2025 Arctic high pressure will build into the region today and tonight, holding the area into midweek. An upper level low passes through the Great Lakes mid week. High pressure continues for the end of the week. The southern Great Lakes region is undergoing a gradual erosion of the lower level moisture and a shifting of the streamlines from a northwesterly direction to more westerly. For temperatures today, not much recovery from the early morning lows that will end up in the lower to mid teens. Upper level trough across the Upper Midwest will continue to glide east towards the Great Lakes region through the short term.
510 AM CST Mon Feb 17 2025 - Breezy and much warmer Today.
The highest resolution models have these gap winds developing in the Northern Flathead late this morning, MT-200 Ovando to Lincoln this evening, and finally I-90 Garrison Junction to Drummond early Tuesday morning.
The Mount Pleasant to Lansing to Jackson region currently features the lowest wind chills for tonight in our CWA.
1231 PM CST Mon Feb 17 2025 After a cold start this morning, temperatures have climbed above freezing areawide under light E/SE winds and abundant sunshine.
The mid level flow will begin to shift more to the southwest overnight as a longwave trough digs out west. At the surface, a ridge of high pressure will remain in place through the short term period.
Depending on the amount of cloud cover, a favorable setup for radiational cooling may be in place allowing lows to drop into the low to mid 30s for most of the area. Temperatures could end up a bit warmer than that if cloud cover ends up being more substantial, but the forecast errs on the lower side of guidance since freezing temps/frost could impact early plant growth.
A mostly dry and mild weather pattern continues through much of this week across northern Arizona as high pressure remains centered just off the southern California coast.
1123 AM CST Mon Feb 17 2025 Updated at 1122 AM CST Mon Feb 17 2025 - A mild start to the week turns cold as an Arctic cold front sweeps through on Tuesday.
Arctic high pressure will begin to wedge in from the northwest today. The lower temperatures and lingering light winds support wind chill values between -5 and -10 across the northern half of the area, and this will remain mentioned in the HWO. Very subtle ridging occurs within the mostly zonal mid-level flow, decreasing the potential for additional snow to enter the area throughout the day.
1030 AM EST Mon Feb 17 2025 Continental Polar high pressure will build across the Middle Atlantic and Carolinas through Tuesday night.
With the axis of the expansive ridge of high pressure over the southeastern United States pivoting eastward over the next several hours, winds have veered to a northeasterly across most of the area. Maximum temperatures today will top out in the mid to upper 70s along the east coast of South Florida with temps in the lower 80s possible across extreme southwestern Florida. This will once again set up a temperature gradient from east to west across the region with high temperatures on Tuesday in the upper 70s along the east coast and high temperatures in the low to mid 80s across southwestern Florida.
Latest trough and associated light rain and snow moving only slowly eastward across our CWA this morning, and will take until this evening to exit our Idaho zones.
Temperatures along highway 97 are near freezing and as we get further into the daylight hours the roads should become wet as they warm up. The upper trough remains over the area this evening with a continues moist onshore flow, then will push south overnight tonight with precipitation diminishing. Models show a warm front approaching the area, but has backed off on the extent of precipitation and it may not be until the cold front arrives late Tuesday night that we'll get precipitation.
1122 AM CST Mon Feb 17 2025 - Breezy and much warmer Today.
With the axis of the expansive ridge of high pressure over the southeastern United States pivoting eastward over the next several hours, winds have already begun to veer to a true northerly direction before becoming northeasterly across most of the area later today. Winds will shift from the north/northeast behind the front, ushering in a cooler and drier airmass over the region later tonight into tomorrow. This will help moderate temperatures across the region, with highs in the low 70s across the East Coast and low 80s across southwest Florida each day.
A more amplified upper level pattern will help to keep our weather more active and cooler over the next seven day. The high pressure behind it is helping to keep temperatures around 70 degrees. We should have an even cooler night tonight with lows dipping down into the 30's across Levy County with 40's and 50's everywhere else before bringing highs back into the 70's by the afternoon.
1051 AM CST Mon Feb 17 2025 After a cold start this morning, temperatures have climbed above freezing areawide under light E/SE winds and abundant sunshine.
A cold front is moving through the forecast area this morning, but we are using the term cold loosely. Here in the Lower Keys, we only saw one report come in from Big Pine Key with 0. Air temperatures along the Keys at this time yesterday were approximately five to seven degrees warmer than they are right now. For reference, 11 AM EST temperatures obs show numbers currently in the lower to mid 70s. Dewpoints yesterday were in the lower 70s, whereas now they are in the upper 60s. If you wish this cold front was a little bit stronger, don't worry. A cold front will continue to progress through the area this afternoon, and it is still expected to become stationary to our south later tonight.
Rain and snow showers north of I-80 will dissipate and move out of the state tonight with upper level ridging building over the area Tuesday, drying conditions temporarily. The active weather is set to clear out of the state tonight, leaving calmer weather conditions as an upper level ridge strengthens over the area. Tomorrow, the upper ridge over the state keeps the dry and quiet conditions throughout the day.
Tonight through Tuesday: Cool high pressure will maintain control of the weather over the forecast area in the near term. Temperatures tonight will dip to near/below freezing for northern/eastern portions of the area, but increasing cloud cover should limit cooling elsewhere and keep readings above freezing.
At our update earlier today, we mentioned that the cold front passed across our northern waters and island chain before it fell apart over the Florida Straits.