Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
This activity will gradually taper off to the east heading into the evening hrs, as the upper trough lifts more into the OH Valley. Current temps have struggled to surpass the mid/upper 40s given the low clouds/rainfall and these temps may only drop a couple of degrees tonight given a persistent low level flow out of the SE/S.
1252 PM EST Fri Mar 1 2024 High pressure will cross the region today.
(Rest of today through Saturday) A low amplitude upper ridge maintains a presence over the Gulf of Mexico and southern peninsula. Beneath this feature exists the western periphery of a broad/expansive ridge encompassing the western Atlantic waters, allowing for a predominately SE flow regime to prevail across South Florida.
Temperatures will be cooler than normal again tonight. Temperatures are expected to rebound nicely and top out in the lower 70s at most locations.
1237 PM EST Fri Mar 1 2024 (This afternoon through Saturday) An upper trough will lift northeast across the Ohio valley into the lower Great Lakes. Pressure falls associated with this upper forcing strengthens the lower level jet with 850mb southwest winds of 40 knots+ later today. The low-level jet will also produce a low-end mountain wave event across the Mountains/Foothills this afternoon and evening hours. Due to the downslope warming into the eastern side of the valley, temperatures will be warmest there with slightly cooler air on the western side.
Near the surface, a weak lee side trough of low pressure remains anchored near and along the Colorado border. Tranquil conditions are forecast during the period with a zonal flow aloft persisting across the high plains of western Kansas while much drier air in the lower levels continues to dominate the region. A warming trend for low temperatures is expected again tonight as prevailing southwesterlies pulls slightly warmer air into southwest Kansas, pushing H85 temperatures up into the mid-teens(C).
The clouds have slowed warming a bit but with full sun this afternoon and increasing southerly winds, afternoon temperatures will climb into the mid 60s to the lower 70s for most areas. The western counties that did not see the morning clouds will be slightly warmer with highs in the middle and upper 70s. A building ridge aloft and increasing low level warm air advection will result in a warming trend the remainder of the weekend. Lows tonight will range from the mid 40s to the lower 50s with highs Saturday mainly in the lower and middle 80s.
Temperatures will be warmer with highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s.
(This afternoon through Saturday) An upper trough will lift northeast across the Ohio valley into the lower Great Lakes. Pressure falls associated with this upper forcing strengthens the lower level jet with 850mb southwest winds of 40 knots+ later today. The low-level jet will also produce a low-end mountain wave event across the Mountains/Foothills this afternoon and evening hours. Due to the downslope warming into the eastern side of the valley, temperatures will be warmest there with slightly cooler air on the western side.
1104 AM CST Fri Mar 1 2024 (Today and tonight) Much warmer temperatures expected today across west central Texas with highs in the mid to upper 70s after a chilly start this morning as temperatures drop into the lower 30s. The upper level low that brought showers and a few thunderstorms and very cool temperatures to the area yesterday has already moved out the area tonight. With the low moving out, upper level heights will rise significantly tomorrow, along with 850mb temperatures that will be 10 to 15 degrees Celsius warmer.
Upper level ridging building in from the west will keep weather conditions quiet through the weekend, with intermittent clouds tomorrow morning making way for a sunnier, warmer afternoon while high temperatures reach the low to mid 70s northeast to upper 70s and near 80 degrees into portions of deep east Texas.
1104 AM CST Fri Mar 1 2024 (Today through Saturday afternoon) Much warmer conditions are expected today with highs climbing into the 70s areawide. Increasing southwesterly flow aloft Saturday will bring some gusty winds to the higher terrain and SE NM.
A passing system will bring strong winds, cooler temperatures, and chances for precipitation through the weekend.
The high temperatures this afternoon will be very close to the overnight lows tonight. Temperatures will be warmer with highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s.
(Through Saturday) A stationary frontal boundary draped along the Forgotten Coast into the Suwannee Valley and a lifting upper low near Lake Michigan will maintain areas of cloudiness mixed with periods of showers (isolated thunder possible) through the near-term period. The low-temperature forecast calls for low 60s outside of roughly a Dothan-to-Fitzgerald line, northward where a CAD-like conditions drop readings to the low/mid 50s. Patchy fog is also possible, but confidence was only high enough to explicitly mention over Apalachee Bay thanks to SE flow overriding those cooler/shallow waters.
Upper diffluence will increase over the forecast area through Saturday, ahead of a negatively tilted trough that crosses the area Sat. A cold front will enter the western part of the area during Sat.
Southwesterly flow increases overnight as the next upper level trough axis enters our region Saturday morning. Mid- level moisture increases slightly which could lead to additional high to mid clouds along the Cheyenne Ridge stretching to the far northeast plains. The remnants of this AR will bring Pacific moisture into the region with the aid of a negatively tilted upper-level trough.
By Saturday afternoon, the cold air damming setup will weaken as the strong high pressure center off the New England coast exits east further into the Atlantic.
A disturbance Saturday will bring a round of light snow to the lowlands.
While we keep our eyes on the radar today, a low pressure circulation off the coast of British Columbia is sending Pacific moisture into the Northern Rockies from the southwest. Snow will spread east with a cold front, affecting Lemhi County and much of western Montana on Saturday morning. Storm totals for this event will be modest, with most of the action staying in the higher terrain.
415 PM EST Fri Mar 1 2024 - A mid/upper level short wave trough will bring light rain to the area through tonight. Meanwhile, low level flow around high pressure to our east is providing warm air advection/isentropic lift through a deep layer. However, there will not be any influx of drier air in the lower levels, and drizzle will probably persist at times into the day Saturday.
516 PM CST Fri Mar 1 2024 (Tonight through Saturday night) The low cloud deck that was recently located near and just to the east of the I-35 corridor has finally eroded.
There were some spotty showers today, but most of the area stayed rain-free with temps topping out in the low to mid 80's. Mild overnight lows in the low to mid 60's expected. A series of upper disturbances will move over the Gulf waters and allow for periods of scattered showers and isolated storms through the weekend with the highest chance over the northeastern gulf.
Areas of fog is expected to develop tonight, however the lowest visibilities may be confined to Acadiana and into CenLA.
Currently - A broad surface anticyclone, moving off the Atlantic coast is druving a broad swath of moderate to fresh breezes around its southern flank. The flow aloft is zonal and the heart of the deep layered ridge has shifted well to the east. Forecast soundings suggest the lower inhibition layer will dissipate overnight with the help of some lower level lift. Overnight lows will fall in the lower 70s with dew points holding near 70.
149 AM MST Sat Mar 2 2024 Pacific moisture continues to stream over the area from the southwest as the jet stream remains over the area on the east side of the Pacific trof over the western portion of the CONUS. Main dynamics today will be the upper flow backing more to the south as a peice of energy ejects out of the core of the upper low off the PacNW coast and heads our way.
If adequate mixing occurs, fog will likely have a more difficult time developing and temps may remain warmer than currently forecast in these areas.
Showers will continue through Saturday, but the bulk of the activity will occur ahead of a cold front before it moves through the area Saturday morning. Snow levels lower to valley floors behind the front on Saturday, although the shower coverage diminishes so there is little to no snow accumulation expected in the lower valleys. Areas of low level wind shear, mainly over the Snake River Valley tomorrow morning as the cold front passes.
1021 PM CST Fri Mar 1 2024 (Tonight through Saturday night) The low cloud deck that was recently located near and just to the east of the I-35 corridor has finally eroded.
Have added mention of "areas of fog" across portions of northern and western Oklahoma where the humidity is the highest and will be watching trends in visibility to determine if some areas may need a Dense Fog Advisory.
105 AM EST Sat Mar 2 2024 Low pressure along the Gulf Coast will spread precipitation across the region tonight as it tracks toward the DelMarVA by Saturday night.
While no rain is currently being observed across the local forecast area under this low cloud deck, drizzle is common in the sfc observations due to some weak isentropic lift.
Overnight, moisture should return in the low levels and allow a deck of stratus clouds to develop after midnight.
A passing storm system will bring strong winds, cooler temperatures, and chances for precipitation through the weekend.
A cold front is moving through the Bay Area early this morning.
541 AM CST Sat Mar 2 2024 - Light snow and light freezing rain will impact portions of the region this morning, primarily north of Highway 200. - Light freezing rain is expected to impact the Devils Lake Basin and portions of the region along the International Border this evening and overnight.
(Today and tonight) Upper level troughing and a stationary front will dominate our weather today.
328 AM CST Sat Mar 2 2024 - Warm and breezy weather this weekend with 70s likely Sunday east of a cold front.
528 AM CST Sat Mar 2 2024 (Today through Sunday Night) Warm and dry weather will persist this weekend as ridging continues to settle into SE Texas. Lows for Sunday night will be a bit warmer with temperatures in the 60s.
(Today through Sunday Night) Warm and dry weather will persist this weekend as ridging continues to settle into SE Texas. Lows for Sunday night will be a bit warmer with temperatures in the 60s.
This will intensify a surface pressure trough over eastern Colorado and eastern New Mexico through the day. Simultaneously, short- wave ridging in the mid levels there will transition to faster flat trough flow by evening.
850-mb flow increases and becomes more south southwesterly which will help to expand the low level thermal axis eastward into the CWA. much warmer temperatures are expected this afternoon with highs in the 70s to around 80 deg forecast.
- Strong gusty winds tonight into Sunday behind a cold front with widely scattered or isolated rain/snow showers Sunday night. A strong cold front will move across Nebraska tonight accompanied by a surge of strong gusty winds. And while winds will also be gusty, temperatures will be notably cooler in the 40s and 50s and working against potential for critical fire weather conditions. There will be a good amount of mid level deformation and FGEN forcing as the upper trof crosses the High Plains with enough moisture to squeeze out a few light rain/snow showers Sunday night but little impact with no accumulations expected. Quasi zonal flow aloft as a broad, flat trof lifts northward into Canada will give way to a deepening trof moving through the Rockies during the latter portion of the workweek.
It will get even warmer as the period progresses as a large storm system builds from the Rockies into the northern Plains tonight and Sunday. The system will drag a cold front toward the region, with breezy southerly winds in the forecast Sunday afternoon. Temperatures will be 5 to 10 degrees warmer than today, and well above average.
Regardless of exact details, with RH values dropping into the high single digits both days, winds will be sufficient for critical conditions to develop.
Upper trough and low moves inland from the Pacific today. The probability of 4 or more inches of snow is less than 20 percent south of Montana Highway 200 and 60-80 percent along the Canadian Border with the highest chance east of Scobey.
An upper low off the Pacific Northwest coast has west to southwest flow across the forecast area.
650 AM CST Sat Mar 2 2024 - Light snow and light freezing rain will impact portions of the region this morning, primarily north of Highway 200. - Light freezing rain is expected to impact the Devils Lake Basin and portions of the region along the International Border this evening and overnight.
936 AM EST Sat Mar 2 2024 High level clouds associated with convection over the Gulf continue to stream across the area this morning as a mid level trough approaches the FL peninsula.
412 AM MST Sat Mar 2 2024 Windy conditions over the weekend, especially over the high terrain and mountain east slopes. Lowland highs in the lower 70's are just slightly above normal for the start of March. Winds will pick up this afternoon in response to a polar jet streak stretching over the central Rockies and a strong surface pressure gradient across the High Plains.
652 AM EST Sat Mar 2 2024 (Today and tonight) Upper level troughing and a stationary front will dominate our weather today.
So, despite the active westerlies across the CONUS, the Keys remain within deep layer ridging. Temperatures are in the lower to mid 70s and dewpoints are near 70. For the next seven days, the western periphery of the subtropical ridge will remain entrenched across the Florida Keys. The westerlies will remain active across the CONUS, but the ridge will fend off a series of weak low pressure systems forming in the northern Gulf. High and low temperatures (lower 80s, mid 70s) will be above normal, and dewpoints likely will climb into the lower to mid 70s. High pressure centered just offshore of the Jersey Shore will continue to slide eastward into the western North Atlantic tonight through Sunday.
626 AM EST Sat Mar 2 2024 (Today through Sunday) A rather complex pattern at the low levels is shown today by models and sfc analyses with lows over the west GOMEX, the SE CONUS and around the Carolinas keeping stationary boundaries across those regions. Aloft, a deepening trough will provide increasing dynamic support as it moves into the northern portions of the Florida peninsula. Locally, this synoptic setup will result in winds shifting more to the SE flow with warm afternoon temps in the low-mid 80s today. Then on Sunday, model solutions depict a couple of mid-level impulses traveling along the aforementioned trough, with one of them getting close enough to support high-end scattered coverage. Expect afternoon temperatures on Sunday to remain in the low-mid 80s, or even upper 80s over some interior areas.
Windy conditions over the weekend, especially over the high terrain and mountain east slopes. Lowland highs in the lower 70's are just slightly above normal for the start of March. Winds will pick up this afternoon in response to a polar jet streak stretching over the central Rockies and a strong surface pressure gradient across the High Plains.
356 AM CST Sat Mar 2 2024 - Light snow and light freezing rain will impact portions of the region this morning, primarily north of Highway 200. - Light freezing rain is expected to impact the Devils Lake Basin and portions of the region along the International Border this evening and overnight.
Have added mention of "areas of fog" across portions of northern and western Oklahoma where the humidity is the highest and will be watching trends in visibility to determine if some areas may need a Dense Fog Advisory. This will intensify a surface pressure trough over eastern Colorado and eastern New Mexico through the day. Simultaneously, short- wave ridging in the mid levels there will transition to faster flat trough flow by evening.
536 AM CST Sat Mar 2 2024 - Warm and breezy weather this weekend with 70s likely Sunday east of a cold front.
533 AM CST Sat Mar 2 2024 (Today through Sunday) Key Messages: - Warmer Weekend Temperatures The coastal trough has all but dissipated with a weak frontal trough south of the Rio Grande analyzed. While dry mid-layers break up the low overcast during the daytime, high level cloudiness is expected to keep sunshine filtered today. A return of southeast winds tonight and an increase in dewpoints will lead to warmer temperatures with a stratus deck that is likely to spread well inland.
Warmer and mostly sunny conditionsfor Sunday with high temperatures 10 to 15 degrees above normal. If the low-clouds do erode out as planned, then patchy areas of dense fog is expected late tonight and early Sunday morning. Return of sunshine and ridging aloft over the southern Appalachians will allow temperatures to warm nicely.
Low temperatures will be warmer than previous nights with values ranging from the upper 40s north to upper 50s south. The WAA and south to southwesterly low-level flow will support warmer temperatures tomorrow, but the cloud cover is likely to still hamper warming to some degree.
1037 AM MST Sat Mar 2 2024 Windy conditions over the weekend, especially over the high terrain and mountain east slopes. Lowland highs in the lower 70's are just slightly above normal for the start of March. Winds will pick up this afternoon in response to a polar jet streak stretching over the central Rockies and a strong surface pressure gradient across the High Plains.
Given the increased cloud cover to start the day and higher dew points, high temperatures on Sunday may be a couple of degrees cooler Sunday that today.
While this low level inversion may persists for most of the day, lingering moisture below H85 looks to gradually diminish later this afternoon, which may allow for some breaks in the cloud cover. High pressure at the sfc anchored over the northern/mid Atlantic states is also translating into a persistent SE/S flow across much of the region. This return flow pattern should allow afternoon temps to rebound mainly into the lower/mid 60s, which is around 15F higher compared to afternoon temps Fri.
Temperatures this afternoon are climbing into the lower to mid 80s, with somewhat gusty south to southwest winds. Initially quasi-zonal flow aloft over our area will become west-southwest by Sunday evening, as an upper trough is carved out from the Pacific Northwest into the northern Great Plains. With south or south-southwest winds tonight, lows are expected to be 10-15 degrees warmer than last night across our central and southern counties, where more radiational cooling occurred. With slight strengthening of a low-level thermal ridge, highs Sunday will be a couple of degrees warmer than today.
Overnight lows may be a little warmer than NBM, with a thickening cloud cover and increasing low level moisture holding dewpoints up. Low pressure into the Plains may tighten the pressure gradient enough to keep a southeasterly breeze late tonight into Sunday, limiting widespread dense fog and helping to bump temperatures tomorrow afternoon.
1236 PM PST Sat Mar 2 2024 A disturbance Saturday will bring a round of light snow to the lowlands.
With the lower level moisture deepening, low clouds will linger longer into the day on Sunday causing lower, though still above normal, high temperatures.
1129 AM CST Sat Mar 2 2024 (Today through Sunday) Key Messages: - Warmer Weekend Temperatures The coastal trough has all but dissipated with a weak frontal trough south of the Rio Grande analyzed. While dry mid-layers break up the low overcast during the daytime, high level cloudiness is expected to keep sunshine filtered today. A return of southeast winds tonight and an increase in dewpoints will lead to warmer temperatures with a stratus deck that is likely to spread well inland.
1018 AM CST Sat Mar 2 2024 Surface analysis late this morning places a 1022 mb ridge of high pressure centered over the Tennessee Valley and Southeast United States.
1143 AM CST Sat Mar 2 2024 (Today through Sunday Night) Warm and dry weather will persist this weekend as ridging continues to settle into SE Texas. Lows for Sunday night will be a bit warmer with temperatures in the 60s.
A lesser wind max is found farther southwest in the lee of the Guadalupes where despite ample cirrus and cooler temps, deep mixing has already produced gusts to 35 mph at Hobbs. This split in low-level wind maxima will remain with us on Sunday, yet trend weaker as the base of an upper trough currently near the Grand Canyon lifts northeast tonight and into the Dakotas by Sunday morning.
249 PM EST Sat Mar 2 2024 High pressure will build across the area tonight and Sunday.
High pressure then brings a dry and much warmer finish to the weekend. Under cloudy skies, lows tonight will range from the lower 40s across the lowlands, into the upper to mid 30s higher elevations of our northeast mountains. For Sunday, afternoon temperatures will reach the upper 60s across the lowlands, ranging into the mid 50s higher elevations under mostly sunny skies.
1125 AM CST Sat Mar 2 2024 - Warm and breezy weather this weekend with 70s likely Sunday east of a cold front.
156 PM MST Sat Mar 2 2024 145 PM MST Sat Mar 2 2024 -Windy conditions tonight and Sunday with elevated fire weather conditions -Unsettled and cooler weather starting Sunday Current surface map places low across north central Wyoming with warm front across northeast Wyoming into southwest South Dakota. Warm front will continue to lift north this afternoon/evening, with increasing southwest winds. Pressure fall/rise couplet behind cold front front peaks Sunday morning, with best pressure rises east of the area Sunday afternoon. with around an inch of snow for the higher elevations of the Black Hills. Flattish northern stream trof sits along the Canadian border through mid week with frontal boundary lingering across the area.
(Tonight) Breaks in the low clouds/stratus continue to develop across much of the mid TN Valley heading more into the afternoon hrs this Sat, as moisture below H85 diminishes further. Weak upper ridging gradually moving east over much of the region is also resulting in a weak subsidence pattern, further aiding the trend in decreasing cloud cover. High pressure anchored over the northern/mid Atlantic states is providing for a persistent SE/S flow as well, which is allowing current temps to rebound into the upper 50s/near 60F. This return flow pattern should eventually result in highs later today climbing mainly into the lower/mid 60s for most spots.
On the plus side, temperatures are quite a bit warmer today than they have been the last few days.
The warm temperature trend continues with maxes in the low 80s across much of the region, and overnight lows in mid 60s to low 70s.
Afternoon highs in the upper 70s to low 80s across east central Florida, with overnight lows in the low to mid 60s.
For the forecast beyond the first period or so, the Florida Keys will remain dominated by a subtropical ridge. Global numerical weather prediction guidance suggests a continued active southern jet, but the ridge will largely deflect most disturbed weather northward and away from South Florida.
344 PM EST Sat Mar 2 2024 Rain will taper off this evening as a low pressure system departs the area.
While winds should remain gusty into the afternoon over south central and southeast Kansas, they should lessen across central Kansas as a weak cold front sags into the area. The developing surface cyclone moving into north central Kansas Sunday night will draw shallow moisture back northwest along the retreating DL to along/just west of the turnpike corridor.
Similar numbers have been seen across the higher terrain as snow reports above 3,000 feet range between just under one inch to near 3 inches per hour. With the axis of the moisture plume over Central California, will expect the high impact snow event to remain enforce.