Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A strong ridge stretches across the southern tier of states today from the east coast all the way to Arizona. We are on the western fringe of the ridge which is continuing to allow for some southerly flow and moisture advection into the region.
1247 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024 - Scattered thunderstorms may redevelop this evening along a cold front, though the probability is low (< 30% chance).
403 PM EDT Sat Jun 29 2024 High pressure will exit into the Maritimes tonight. A warm front lifts to the north late tonight, followed by a cold front crossing the region Sunday into Sunday night.
1126 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024 (Today through Sunday Night) The dominance of our new friend, the upper-level ridge, remains unchallenged as we creep forward into summer. Coastal regions should remain in the lower 90s while our northern counties are closer to high-90s. Minimum temperatures will once again be in the high-70s. Guidance suggests heat indices will remain on the higher end of the range of Heat Advisory criteria (108-112F) in some areas, so please take proper precautions to remain safe during these times.
A weak trough passage across the western US this weekend will bring breezy west winds each afternoon, with gusts generally in the 25-30 mph range.
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Low cloud cover is slowly dissipating this afternoon in wake of the low pressure system that is pushing through the northern and central plains today. A strong cap is expected to erode along the high terrain of central Montana, moisture advection will push dewpoints into the upper 50s to low 60s, bulk shear will mainly be above 40 knots, the low level jet will eventually exceed 30 knots, and MU CAPE values are expected to exceed 800 J/kg.
Where clouds remained, temperatures lagged in the 80s early this afternoon while areas with little or no cloud cover were in the lower 90s. This will also provide the fuel for potential strong to severe storms this evening into tonight as a cold front is forecast to move south through the region. Cooler air will filter into the area behind the front which will bring a much more comfortable, though brief, respite from the heat.
1244 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024 (Today through Sunday) A 500mb ridge over Central Texas will slowly lift to the north through the weekend, as an inverted mid-level trough moves over the southern Gulf. At the surface, high pressure will continue to prevail across the northern Gulf of Mexico through Sunday. A broad area of low pressure near the eastern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula this morning and is expected to emerge and propagate westward over the Bay of Campeche through the short term.
- Shower and storm chances will be on the increase today as a cold front slowly pushes south.
Looking aloft, a very weak upper- level inverted trough is expected to linger over the Gulf Coast through the remainder of the day today before dissipating by the evening hours. By tonight and into Sunday, an upper ridge over the south central US expands eastward, placing the local region under the eastern periphery of this ridge. Highs for today will top out in the low 90s. Highs tomorrow look to top out a couple degrees warmer than today.
We remain in quasi-zonal flow out ahead of an approaching cold front. Tomorrow, showers and storms increase in coverage as a cold front advances toward the area. The highest coverage will be during the afternoon hours, during peak heating. The cold front will pass through sometime overnight.
High pressure remains over North Texas keeping our CWA under a deep southeasterly to southerly flow. The proximity of the high keeps the heat on us, but there is enough moisture from the Gulf making its way west that highs remain well off anything record breaking.
125 PM MDT Sat Jun 29 2024 Showers and thunderstorms are expected to return across the Northern Rockies on Sunday as a Pacific trough moves through the region. Elsewhere, the trough's passage will support the development of showers and thunderstorms, though the risk of stronger storms is lower.
1229 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024 Today and Tonight: Dangerous heat conditions will continue to be the primary hazard in the short term period as early morning global guidance continues to show upper ridging building over the southeast CONUS.
Current temperatures across the area are similar to a few degrees warmer than yesterday this time and overall highs will be similar to yesterday. The big difference will be the higher dew points, they are running a few degrees higher than yesterday and we won't see them mix out much this afternoon. This cold front will be the main focus for thunderstorms and should remain to our north today but will start to push south later this evening into tomorrow. Scattered storms along the cold front to our north will start to push south into our area after 10 pm tonight and will continue to work south during the overnight likely becoming less widespread. Highs will be a bit cooler in the upper 80s to lower 90s.
Dry and seasonable weather is expected today as high pressure moves through the area. Warmer and drier weather returns for the Independence Day weekend. Tranquil and noticeably warmer weather is expected today as a transient upper level ridge slides across the Northwestern US. With this ridge and southwesterly flow aloft, temperatures will rise into the 70s across the Plains, while some of the Southwestern Valleys will reach the low 80s under mostly clear skies.
so we will be updating the forecast to show more clouds and cooler temperatures there. Otherwise the forecast remains on track for a weak cold front to move through the area tonight cooling temperatures back down to near normal on Sunday. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms developing over the higher terrain.
1237 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024 - Isolated thunderstorms this morning then a bit of a break from active weather as high pressure builds.
1223 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024 (Today through Sunday afternoon) Well, not much to write home about for the short term with a weak, elongated ridge in place from northern Mexico through the southeast US. With the ridge being more displaced and weaker than yesterday (coincident with a weaker low-level thermal ridge), high temperatures will be a few degrees cooler for most, albeit still quite hot.
(Tonight through Sunday night) A few showers persist over the coastal plains into the Highway 77 corridor early this afternoon. A subtle increase in moisture and the low-level jet should be enough to generate some isolated showers Sunday morning over the coastal plains.
Fairly zonal flow exists across much of the CONUS, with weak high pressure at the surface. Today, the ridge axis is situated directly over the FL peninsula, in a regime 1 type setup. Near the end of the work week, a trough digging over the Western Atlantic may push this ridge axis farther south and west, bringing back another period of SW flow at the very end of the forecast period.
The National Hurricane Center is watching three areas across the basin: a tropical wave near the Yucatan Peninsula, Tropical Storm Beryl around 800 miles east of the Leeward Islands, and an area of low pressure southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands.
Cloud cover has filled in from the northwest behind a cold front early this afternoon. This will also work to clear out our cloud cover overnight, leading to an even cooler late June night.
Excessive heat will continue into Sunday for portions of the Mid- South until a cold front brings cooler temperatures and increasing rain chances.
A broad area of low pressure near the Bay of Campeche will move westward into Central America overnight and Sunday.
540 PM EDT Sat Jun 29 2024 High pressure will exit across the Maritimes overnight. A warm front lifts to the north late tonight, followed by a cold front crossing the region Sunday into Sunday night.
846 PM EDT Sat Jun 29 2024 High pressure will exit across the Maritimes overnight. A warm front lifts to the north late tonight, followed by a cold front crossing the region Sunday into Sunday night.
542 PM MDT Sat Jun 29 2024 - Warmer Sunday with scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms, a few strong to severe.
737 PM MDT Sat Jun 29 2024 - Warmer Sunday with scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms, a few strong to severe.
852 PM EDT Sat Jun 29 2024 High pressure will exit across the Maritimes overnight. A warm front lifts to the north late tonight, followed by a cold front crossing the region Sunday into Sunday night.
An upper-level trough and cold front will bring a mixture of impacts to the state Sunday including showers and thunderstorms across the northern border along with critical fire weather conditions including gusty winds and low humidity across east-central Nevada.
644 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024 (Tonight through Sunday night) A few showers persist over the coastal plains into the Highway 77 corridor early this afternoon. A subtle increase in moisture and the low-level jet should be enough to generate some isolated showers Sunday morning over the coastal plains.
848 PM EDT Sat Jun 29 2024 Bermuda high pressure will continue to dominate our weather through the weekend.
The position of the subtropical ridge and its related subsidence in the mid-levels as per recent water-vapor imagery will also suppress any further convective development even if outflow associated with the thunderstorms near the I-40 corridor propagate southward into the extreme southern TX PH as the boundary-layer decouples and diabatic stabilization occurs.
709 PM EDT Sat Jun 29 2024 Fairly zonal flow exists across much of the CONUS, with weak high pressure at the surface. Today, the ridge axis is situated directly over the FL peninsula, in a regime 1 type setup. Near the end of the work week, a trough digging over the Western Atlantic may push this ridge axis farther south and west, bringing back another period of SW flow at the very end of the forecast period.
Upstream and to our NW, a band of showers/thunderstorms has developed in the southern Plains and the lower Missouri Valley this evening as a cold front continues to advance southward through that area.
622 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024 Excessive heat will continue into Sunday for portions of the Mid- South until a cold front brings cooler temperatures and increasing rain chances.
Short range models show more of an increase in convection after 12Z ahead of a cold front that will be approaching the northern plateau during the later morning hours. Temperatures are very warm at mid evening, still in the 80s with heat index values still in the lower 90s. We remain in quasi-zonal flow out ahead of an approaching cold front. Tomorrow, showers and storms increase in coverage as a cold front advances toward the area. The highest coverage will be during the afternoon hours, during peak heating. The cold front will pass through sometime overnight.
The cold front is steadily tracking across the inland Pacific Northwest this evening, with gusty winds around 30 mph ahead of the front observed at Burns, OR and Rome, OR.
Otherwise, temperatures will again be hot with overnight lows near record high minimums in the lower 80s and highs on Sunday near 100 again.
301 PM MDT Sat Jun 29 2024 - Warmer Sunday with scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms, a few strong to severe.
A Pacific trough of low pressure is currently moving across eastern Washington this morning, spreading light to moderate rain showers over northern Idaho. Isolated areas, particularly in the higher terrain may see slightly higher amounts. By the end of the week and upcoming weekend, 80% of ensemble guidance continues to show the return of a ridge of high pressure. A Pacific trough of low pressure will bring light to moderate rainfall to portions of north-central Idaho and northwest Montana later this morning through the afternoon.
112 AM MDT Sun Jun 30 2024 -Moisture and warmer temps return today with slight chances for thunderstorms -Stronger system will bring increased chances for storms Monday, some of which may be severe -Unsettled pattern will bring near daily chances for storms the remainder of the week with temps around normal or slightly below Fairly active northern stream will prevail this week with near daily chances for showers and storms as a frontal boundary wavers over the region. Warmest day this week will be today as temps surge into the 90s over the western third (approaching 100 at some locations on the WY plains), much cooler in the east.
1138 PM MDT Sat Jun 29 2024 - Warmer Sunday with scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms, a few strong to severe.
Cooler and drier air moving in tonight. Discussion: A cold front currently over the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley will drop southeast and move across our area later today before exiting to our southeast this evening. Any lingering showers/storms will be moving out this evening, with drier and cooler air moving in behind the front.
Southeast winds are near 10-15 mph with temperatures remaining in the lower 80s at the present hour. Lows tonight will maybe be a degree or two cooler as sky conditions try to stay on the partly cloudy side vs seeing an additional night of cloudy conditions.
/Issued 1258 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024/ /Through Monday/ Mid-level high pressure remains in control across the region leading to yet another day of above normal temperatures. Relief may be on the horizon, as there are indications the ridge will weaken late this week as a longwave trough/upper low moves into the Central CONUS.
123 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024 - Scattered showers and storms quickly diminish after daybreak as a cold front moves through the region. Cooler conditions with much lower humidity can be expected later this afternoon through Monday.
1218 AM PDT Sun Jun 30 2024 The tail end of a cold front will pass across Northern Nevada today.
The additional cloud cover will help keep temperatures a few degrees cooler today with many areas only reaching the upper 80s though some pockets of around 90 are possible, mainly in Southwest Florida.
/NEW/ /Through Monday/ Mid-level high pressure remains in control across the region leading to yet another day of above normal temperatures.
One more day of hot and humid conditions for portions of the Mid- South before a cold front sweeps through the region this evening.
- Cooler week ahead before strong ridge and toasty temperatures return for the weekend.
This activity is occurring ahead of a cold front currently across the Midwest that will sink southward later today and tonight. Much drier and cooler air will filter into the region tonight with dewpoints falling into the 50s, so temperatures will see a dramatic change from the past few nights with lows in the upper 50s to low 60s.
High pressure, currently centered over the Northern/Central Plains, is forecast to shift slightly southward and help push the cold front through the northern half of the forecast area this morning, likely stalling in the vicinity or just south of I-40 by midday or so. Biggest challenge was determining today's temperatures given a high model spread in guidance due to the presence of the cold front. Will continue to lean more toward the NBM solution, suggesting temperatures warm up into the mid-upper 80s to near 90 along and north of I-44 and into the low-mid 90s elsewhere.
Have gone above guidance a degree or two but this is still cooler than what we have been looking at most of the last week.
A strong cap is expected to erode along the high terrain of central Montana late this afternoon, as moisture advection will push dewpoints into the upper 50s to low 60s. Bulk shear will mainly be above 40 knots, the low level jet will eventually exceed 30 knots and MU CAPE values are expected to exceed 800 J/kg.
Moisture continues to increase across the area today, as do daytime temperatures, the increase in moisture combined with the high temperatures will result in heat indices in the 105- 110F range. Max temperatures for today and Monday will be in the mid to upper 90s inland and in the low 90s along the coast.
Ridge axis situated over Florida holds us in the easterly flow through through the beginning of the week. The next feature to shift us out of the current pattern arrives later in the week as a trough dips down and pushes the ridge axis a bit more south and west, bringing back a more SW flow.
Somewhat cooler air (well, at least it is not as hot) will filter into northern Oklahoma, and warming will also be reduced by the clouds and expected precipitation today across the north and portions of central Oklahoma.
Otherwise, dry conditions with decreasing cloud cover and low temperatures in the low to upper 70s are forecast. Atlantic subtropical ridge axis will remain across the area maintaining favorable boating conditions.
1221 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024 (Tonight through Sunday night) A few showers persist over the coastal plains into the Highway 77 corridor early this afternoon. A subtle increase in moisture and the low-level jet should be enough to generate some isolated showers Sunday morning over the coastal plains.
WV imagery depicts broad ridging over the western US with dry air mass in place across much of the central and northern plains. Lee trough develops through the day Sunday with the tightening pressure gradient over the western SD plains lending to strong southerly winds. Temperatures tomorrow will be much warmer than today with highs in the upper 80s to 90s across much of the area. Upper level trough with attendant front will cross the region Monday, bringing chances for storms to the region once more. Upper trough will move to the east by the midweek with quasi- zonal flow setting up over the region.
This will allow the sea breeze to penetrate modestly inland, and therefore expect the highest chances for showers and t'storms to be west of I-95. With the soupy airmass in place (even for Florida standards), we will be flirting with heat advisory criteria in some areas despite temps mainly in the low to mid 90s, as dew points reach the mid to upper 70s. A cold front approaches from the north Sunday Night and into Monday before stalling and becoming typically diffuse over central GA.
(Sunday through Monday) Upper-air analysis this morning is showing high pressure across our region. With the ridge pushing west, this frontal boundary should allow for some convection to develop along it that will drift into our region late this afternoon. Mild temperatures will remain in place for tonight, with lows ranging from the lower 70s, mainly for areas that see thunderstorms, to the mid and upper 70s elsewhere. This will allow for some slightly cooler temperatures to settle in for areas to the northeast of the frontal boundary. Areas behind the front will see temperatures in the lower 90s while the rest of the area will remain in the mid to upper 90s.
1115 PM EDT Sat Jun 29 2024 High pressure will exit across the Maritimes overnight. A warm front lifts to the north late tonight, followed by a cold front crossing the region Sunday into Sunday night.
(Today and tonight) Upper-level ridging will remain over North Texas today but may wobble towards the forecast area this afternoon before shifting east this evening. A weak surface cold front was located along I-40 as of 2 am but this boundary is expected to lift back to the northeast today as a warm front. Thickness values will actually decrease slightly today which will keep temperatures near to a few degrees cooler than what was observed yesterday. This will keep high temperatures in the mid 90s to the lower 100s.
308 AM EDT Sun Jun 30 2024 - Cooler today and tonight with few clouds.
(Today through Monday afternoon) The stagnant pattern we've observed for the last several days persists through the beginning of the week with persistent upper ridging spanning from northern Mexico through the Gulf Coast. Synoptic subsidence ticks up a bit tomorrow with the ridge becoming stronger and more centered over the ArkLaTex.
518 AM MDT Sun Jun 30 2024 -Moisture and warmer temps return today with slight chances for thunderstorms -Stronger system will bring increased chances for storms Monday, some of which may be severe -Unsettled pattern will bring near daily chances for storms the remainder of the week with temps around normal or slightly below Fairly active northern stream will prevail this week with near daily chances for showers and storms as a frontal boundary wavers over the region. Warmest day this week will be today as temps surge into the 90s over the western third (approaching 100 at some locations on the WY plains), much cooler in the east.
558 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024 - Scattered showers and storms quickly diminish after daybreak as a cold front moves through the region. Cooler conditions with much lower humidity can be expected later this afternoon through Monday.
An upper level trof is approaching from the west this morning. The main trof/front move eastward through the CWA this afternoon.
832 AM EDT Sun Jun 30 2024 Isolated showers and storms will continue to move ahead and along a cold front early this morning into early afternoon. Building high pressure will return comfortable dry weather. KEY MESSAGES: - Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible along and ahead of a passing cold front this morning/afternoon. - Cooler and drier weather expected tonight behind the front. Instability is plentiful ahead of the cold front with dew points ranging in the upper-60s to low-70F. Previous Discussion: Convective activity promptly ends with the passage of the cold front, which doesn't look to occur until early afternoon.
645 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024 (Sunday through Monday) Upper-air analysis this morning is showing high pressure across our region. With the ridge pushing west, this frontal boundary should allow for some convection to develop along it that will drift into our region late this afternoon. Mild temperatures will remain in place for tonight, with lows ranging from the lower 70s, mainly for areas that see thunderstorms, to the mid and upper 70s elsewhere. This will allow for some slightly cooler temperatures to settle in for areas to the northeast of the frontal boundary. Areas behind the front will see temperatures in the lower 90s while the rest of the area will remain in the mid to upper 90s.
With that high pressure system winds should remain light and will slowly shift from the north to the south this morning. As the high pressure moves off to the east later this evening and into the overnight period we should start to see the clouds move into the region from the west. The NAM soundings show us capped at the lower levels presenting the idea of elevated hailers moving into our area. Looking through the progression for model soundings there might be some drizzle showers as some sounding have us saturated at the lower levels under that cap but my best guess for the severe potential looks to be late afternoon and evening.
333 AM MDT Sun Jun 30 2024 - Warmer today, with scattered afternoon storms.
Southeast winds were keeping temperatures in the low 80s with dewpoints in the upper 60s.
638 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024 (Today through Monday night) High pressure will gradually strengthen and slowly shift east this week. As the high strengthens and centers over central OK tomorrow, south to southwest flow will prevail, as well as lower dewpoints. Overall, today's highs will be in the lower to mid 90s, with temperatures warming into the upper 90s to lower 100s on Monday.
(Today through Monday night) High pressure will gradually strengthen and slowly shift east this week. As the high strengthens and centers over central OK tomorrow, south to southwest flow will prevail, as well as lower dewpoints. Overall, today's highs will be in the lower to mid 90s, with temperatures warming into the upper 90s to lower 100s on Monday.
(Now through Monday) An upper level ridge will remain centered west of the area through Monday.
626 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024 (Today through Monday afternoon) The stagnant pattern we've observed for the last several days persists through the beginning of the week with persistent upper ridging spanning from northern Mexico through the Gulf Coast. Synoptic subsidence ticks up a bit tomorrow with the ridge becoming stronger and more centered over the ArkLaTex.
535 AM MDT Sun Jun 30 2024 - Warmer today, with scattered afternoon storms.