Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Although there will be periods of heavy rainfall with the convective line today, the rather fast eastward movement of the line will make it less likely that the higher rainfall rates will remain over one location for more than one hour. A strong cold front will push through central Alabama on Thursday, producing rather fall like conditions. Scattered showers will develop on Thursday as the main upper trough approaches the area, mainly across the northern counties.
604 AM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024 (Today and tonight) The cooler, more stable air mass behind the cold front will allow for a break from the severe weather. Temperatures today will be below normal, with highs in the low 60s to low 70s and lows in the 40s tonight.
646 AM EDT Wed Apr 10 2024 Today will be cooler with more clouds and scattered showers.
The ridge that has dominated our weather pattern the past several days continues to shift off to the east and the approaching trough is constricting the pressure gradient over the region. The low pressure will strengthen as it lifts across the Lower Mississippi Valley and into the Great Lakes Region tonight and into Thursday.
Drier and cooler conditions are expected today, although the most noticeable feature will be the gusty winds expected through this evening. Winds will continue to increase this morning out west and over the higher terrain of the Hill Country, eventually spreading east in the afternoon hours.
A ridge will continue to build over the Southwest today allowing temperatures to warm and sunny skies to persist.
352 AM MDT Wed Apr 10 2024 - Cooler temperatures with a chance (20-40%) of precipitation Wednesday.
It will remain dry with warmer afternoon temperatures today with upper ridging building over the area. Dry weather will continue into Thursday, but afternoon temperatures will be cooler as the upper ridge shifts east as an upper trough digs south off the Oregon coast.
407 AM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024 - Warmer and dry Wednesday.
CAMs yesterday were showing a pretty decent drop in surface pressure with this low, bringing with it pretty gusty wind this evening. With the low passing pretty close to us, shear values are good and the combination could open the door for some gusty winds and maybe even some hail with these storms.
556 AM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024 (Today and tonight) Periods of scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are expected today as the center of the closed upper low translates across north Texas. Guidance has trended cooler for temperatures today due to plentiful cloud- cover, rain, and CAA. Breezy north winds are also expected with gusts increasing over southern and southeastern Oklahoma this afternoon as the surface cyclone deepens to our southeast.
High pressure holds over the area for one more day with rain-free conditions, above average temperatures and gusty winds through the day. A strong cold front will move through the area on Thursday bringing scattered showers and isolated storms to the eastern gulf waters through the day on Thursday.
This activity is expected to continue to diminish through the morning as high pressure begins to build over western Montana and north central Idaho. High pressure will largely be in place through the weekend, with a notable warming trend.
A cold front will move through the area this evening around or just after dark.
Cooler and drier air will funnel in from behind, along with gusty west to northwest winds. Could see some lingering showers towards the northern counties as the low continues to spin and bring wraparound moisture into those areas. Quiet weather will continue into Thursday as high pressure settles into the area under sunny skies. Temperatures will be slightly warmer as highs reach into the mid 70s to low 80s. Clear skies and persistent NW winds will lead to slightly cooler nighttime temperatures Thursday night with lows in the mid 40s to mid 50s.
559 AM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024 (Today through Thursday night) 08z WV satellite shows an upper trough located roughly over an arc extending from N central OK to the Big Bend.
609 AM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024 (Today and tonight) The mid/upper level low/trough that has brought showers and thunder to the forecast area the last 24 to 36 hours is clearly defined on satellite imagery extending from western Oklahoma to the Permian Basin. Radar imagery continues to show a band of light to moderate rain wrapping around the back side of the trough. Models are in good agreement with the trough shifting eastward to central Oklahoma and northwest Texas by noon today and then east of the I-35 corridor by the end of the day. Despite some low level cold advection, clearing skies mid morning to early afternoon will result in increased insolation and warmer temperatures relative to yesterday and in line with NBM highs.
620 AM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024 Wet and unsettled weather will continue for the next 24-36 hours as a cold front and deep low pressure system traverse the area.
For today early morning satellite imagery, RAP analysis showed the circulation around a closed low over west Texas that will shift east to the Sabine River by this evening and then northeast to the Missouri Bootheel by sunrise Thursday. By this evening direr air will be working into our CWA from the southwest while circulation around the closed low will maintain rain chances across our north through the night.
High pressure building into the area will result in a drying and warming trend which will continue through the remainder of the week.
Mid and high level cloud has spread northeast across southern and eastern Kansas downstream of an upper trough over west Texas. As the trough moves northeast, some light showers cannot be ruled out across far southeastern locations on the north end of the system's deformation zone.
- Another mild day expected this afternoon with temperatures near 70, with a brief dip in temperatures closer to 60 behind a cold front for Thursday.
624 AM EDT Wed Apr 10 2024 Today will be cooler with more clouds and scattered showers.
934 AM EDT Wed Apr 10 2024 Today will be cooler with more clouds and scattered showers.
showers overspread much of the area with the higher rain chances Thursday afternoon into Thursday evening.
- River flooding will continue through the weekend on isolated portions of the Lower Fox and Rock Rivers.
1227 PM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024 (Today and tonight) The cooler, more stable air mass behind the cold front will allow for a break from the severe weather. Temperatures today will be below normal, with highs in the low 60s to low 70s and lows in the 40s tonight.
Sunny today with high temps 1-3 degrees warmer than yesterday as a broad Pacific upper ridge pushes inland. Thursday will be 5 to 10 degrees warmer as the ridge comes fully inland. After that, a deep upper low from the Gulf of Alaska will move due south resulting in southwest flow over our CWA.
1229 PM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024 (Rest of today through Thursday) Chances of showers with isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible across mid state region through Thursday afternoon as surface frontal system now based across southern MS River Valley Region pushes northeastward and associated upper level low digs across southern MS River Valley Region northeastward into mid state region by morning hours on Thursday before pushing northeastward also.
A ridge will continue to build over the Southwest today allowing temperatures to warm and clear skies to persist.
1108 AM MDT Wed Apr 10 2024 - Cooler temperatures with a chance (20-40%) of precipitation Wednesday.
1206 PM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024 (Today and tonight) The mid/upper level low/trough that has brought showers and thunder to the forecast area the last 24 to 36 hours is clearly defined on satellite imagery extending from western Oklahoma to the Permian Basin. Radar imagery continues to show a band of light to moderate rain wrapping around the back side of the trough. Models are in good agreement with the trough shifting eastward to central Oklahoma and northwest Texas by noon today and then east of the I-35 corridor by the end of the day. Despite some low level cold advection, clearing skies mid morning to early afternoon will result in increased insolation and warmer temperatures relative to yesterday and in line with NBM highs.
The hi-res models continue to fire shra/tsra on the backside of any initial line that moves through during the evening in association with strong mid level energy/trough. The pressure gradient will tighten as a deepening low pressure system moves from the Lower Mississippi River Valley into the Ohio Valley tonight and early Thursday.
(This evening through Thursday) A low pressure system will move across the southeast today with the center of the low slowly meandering northeast through the southern MS River Valley today and tonight. As the low pressure moves into the TN Valley this evening, a mid level jet will develop and strengthen over Alabama. Northwest flow will set up bringing cooler and drier air to the state with conditions feeling cooler than the past couple of days by the end of the short term.
Two areas of low pressure continue to solidify along the southern end of a very slow moving front that extends from extreme southeastern Canada southwest into NE Texas and western Arkansas. Two large areas of convection have developed near and east of these two areas of low pressure. The strongest area of convection continues to be associated with the southern area of low pressure over extreme southeastern Louisiana.
Warmer temperatures will occur the next several days with highs climbing several degrees above normal.
The cold front as of 3AM this morning has reached our coastal areas and will be moving offshore over the next few hours. The mid-level low and associated trough will swing across TX today and lift NE towards AR this afternoon.
1229 PM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024 (Today through Thursday night) 08z WV satellite shows an upper trough located roughly over an arc extending from N central OK to the Big Bend.
(This afternoon and Tonight ) Upper low over NE TX this afternoon will continue to move ENE this afternoon, and northeast through AR overnight. Showers and isolated to scattered storms will continue to fill in to the east and north of the upper system this afternoon, with a gradual shift in coverage from west to east this evening as the low lifts into AR. The upper low looks to deepen some tonight as it lifts northeast, which will tighten the pressure gradient at the surface.
(This evening through Thursday) Early this afternoon, skies were gradually clearing underneath an upper-level trough that was residing over west central Texas. Tomorrow, high pressure should gradually build in from the north. Given the lack of cloud cover expected, temperatures should be a bit warmer and reach the low 70s for the Big Country where the coolest airmass will be in place.
1233 PM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024 (Today and tonight) Periods of scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are expected today as the center of the closed upper low translates across north Texas. Guidance has trended cooler for temperatures today due to plentiful cloud- cover, rain, and CAA. Breezy north winds are also expected with gusts increasing over southern and southeastern Oklahoma this afternoon as the surface cyclone deepens to our southeast.
The combination of a clear sky and light winds tonight will maximize radiative cooling effects, with near-freezing temperatures forecast across the far northwestern South Plains and extreme southwestern TX PH.
Eventually as the main upper low moves farther east across north TX, expect precipitation to fill in and become more focused in areas along and southeast of I-44 as reflected in forecast for the period 18-00z.
The lull will likely be short lived as the low to our southwest gets closer spreading its rain shield into the area from south to north by tonight.
(Rest of today through Thursday) Chances of showers with isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible across mid state region through Thursday afternoon as surface frontal system now based across southern MS River Valley Region pushes northeastward and associated upper level low digs across southern MS River Valley Region northeastward into mid state region by morning hours on Thursday before pushing northeastward also.
Dry air in the lower levels will promote little rainfall/virga, with most locations not seeing more than a tenth of an inch.
This leaves our area under sunny skies with cooler than normal temperatures. Mid-level ridging begins to take back over beginning Thursday. This pushes temperatures several degrees warmer than today with more widespread 70s and 80s along both the Rio Grande and Pecos River Valleys under more sunny skies. Similarly, temperatures are going to be warmer Thursday night with lower 50s returning for the majority.
A ridge of high pressure will be building over the Northern Rockies for the next 24 to 36 hours. This ridge will allow for the development of low stratus and patchy fog across the valleys of north central Idaho into northwest Montana.
The warm and dry conditions are expected to continue across northern Arizona through Thursday as high pressure remains in place.
We should finally dry out later tonight after a cold front finally pushes through the area and the trough axis moves across the Lower MS Valley.
This upper low and troughing will lend support to the next major weather system that is firing up over Louisiana and Mississippi.
1246 PM PDT Wed Apr 10 2024 Dry and warmer weather will occur through Thursday with a building marine layer and high temperatures near 10 degrees above average for inland areas.
201 PM MDT Wed Apr 10 2024 Satellite imagery showed cyclonic flow over the region with a short wave moving across the MT/Dakota border into the high plains. Ridging aloft builds over the area for Thursday. Highs Thursday will be in the lower 60s west to lower 50s east.
(Rest of today through Thursday) SFL currents resides between high pressure centered near Bermuda and deepening low pressure moving into the SE US. Mid-lvl ridging is also gradually shifting east of the area, in response to a mid- lvl closed low moving through the SE US. High temperatures this afternoon will range from the low to mid 80s near the east coast to the mid to upper 80s in Interior and SW Florida. The influence of the Atlantic high will weaken on Thursday as the low moves eastward and winds will veer more southerly by Thursday morning and then eventually more SWrly late Thursday afternoon. The system's cold front will not cross through the area until the Thursday night period so warm temperatures can be expected on Thursday, with highs likely near 90 over the Interior and east coast.
The mid level trough will be swinging across the lower Mississippi Valley region tonight into Thursday, and this will be accompanied by another round of showers and perhaps a few storms along/behind the surface cold front. Otherwise, it will be a much cooler tomorrow day given the combination of clouds, wind, and cooler temperatures.
An upper level cut-off low pressure system is forecast to develop by day-break between central New Mexico and the Texas panhandle and slowly push to the east through Monday. At the surface, a high pressure system sits over central Texas producing light northerly winds across the local area early this morning. The high pressure moves to the east as the day progresses with winds turning to the southeast first across the Rio Grande and southern Edwards Plateau during the afternoon. Daytime highs are forecast to range from the low 60s across the Hill Country to mid 60s along the I-35 corridor and coastal plains. With the return of a southerly flow, Monday's highs will be warmer than the weekend with temperatures in the low to upper 70s.
With the southerly winds continuing tonight, low temperatures are expected to average 5 to 10 degrees warmer than those seen this morning.
Additional cooling is possible, with low temperatures bottoming out near or below freezing for most areas, with a hard freeze possible for a few of the colder locations.
953 AM CDT Sun Mar 10 2024 Expect temperatures this afternoon to be slightly warmer than yesterday with highs ranging from the mid 50s to low 60s. Another cold night is in store for the Mid-South tonight as Monday morning lows dip into the low 30s.
Where clearer conditions exist, temps have dipped into the 30s in the cooler pockets across north MS and AR.
(Rest of Today) A chilly start to the day across the Tennessee Valley, as current temperatures range from the low to mid 40s. High pressure will continue to settle across the region today, with temperatures remaining below normal thanks to northwesterly flow. Expect afternoon highs to be limited to the low to mid 50s despite abundant sunshine.
Northerly winds today will shift northeasterly on Monday bringing noticeably cooler temperatures both days. Highs today and Monday will be in the low to mid 60s, or about 4 to 8 degrees below normal.
Amplified mid/upper level ridging is moving over the Northern Plains, with the central axis just to our west this morning. The large scale pattern supports this progressing east through tonight with westerly zonal/split flow developing by Monday, resulting in building lee troughing and strong WAA into our region.
Our winds are light north of calm with a 1025mb high pressure center just east of Denton TX. Skies will see an increase in clouds and while still cool, Monday starts off slightly warmer with similar numbers really.
Snow will come to an end by mid-day as the upper trough departs east and upper level support goes away. - Warm and Dry Start to The Work Week High pressure fills in quickly behind the upper trough beginning another warming trend with dry weather.
Temperatures will still remain slightly below normal today with highs in the low to mid 70s. Overnight low will also remain just shy of seasonal norms with lows in the low 50s across the northern Ranchlands to upper 50s in the lower Valley.
Temperatures tonight will cool into the 30s across the Mid-South, with some locations at or close to freezing.
1202 PM CDT Sun Mar 10 2024 (Today through Monday afternoon) Another chilly early morning is underway across Southeast New Mexico and West Texas, with lows expected to drop into the lower to middle 30s for most of the area, with 40s along the Rio Grande. Surface flow has already returned to the south, marking the end of our brief shot of cooler weather, and the beginning of a warming trend that will carry into midweek. Highs today are progged to top out in the lower to middle 60s for most, and upper 50s in the mountains, around 5 to 8 degrees below normal. Highs rebound above normal into the lower to middle 70s, with the return of some 80s along the Rio Grande Valley in the Big Bend.
1242 PM CDT Sun Mar 10 2024 (Today and tonight) After a cool start this morning, warmer temperatures and quiet weather is expected through the next 24 hours. This will allow surface winds to turn back out of the south at 5 to 10 mph by late morning, and temperatures to be 5 to 10 degrees warmer, with most areas getting into the low to mid 60s. Tonight, with slightly increased moisture, and southerly winds of around 5 knots in most place, overnight lows will also be warmer, by 10 to 15 degrees, with lows ranging from the upper 30s to mid 40s.
Weak confluence combined with this low-level moisture has allowed a line of light showers to wax and wane. This line should reach the Lower Keys between 400 and 500 pm. Muggy conditions are present ahead of the front, with temperatures in the lower to mid 80s and dewpoints in the mid 70s at most island communities. High pressure will build across the Southeast in the wake of the front tonight and Monday, then slowly slide eastward into the west-central Atlantic throughout the work week. We are getting to the time of year where cold frontal passages are quite rare for the Florida Keys. From synopsis, a weak cold front will push through the Florida Keys coastal waters this evening.
- A quick temperature rebound gets underway Monday with dry weather and much warmer air expected through mid week. Model soundings also suggest a stray gust briefly touching 45 mph is possible before sunset as increasing mid level subsidence overlaps a well-mixed boundary layer and low level thermal trough, however spotty predictability on location and duration suggests holding off on a Wind Advisory for now. Renewed SW low level flow ensues to displace the low level thermal trough and carry warmer air into the Great Lakes from the mid MS valley. Guidance highs in the lower to mid 50s look good, even closer to the Lake Huron shoreline.
* Unseasonably warm through mid-week; cooler late in the week.
A spring-like pattern develops for much of this week resulting in breezier winds, cooler temperatures, and chances for rain and mountain snow/graupel showers. This high pressure looks to be short-lived as a more active pattern begins to develop across the Southwest for much of this week.
A cold front is still expected to push across the Northern Rockies this evening between 6pm to 9pm. Snow will be mainly confined to the higher terrain, while the valleys experience a rain/snow mix from the shower activity.
(This evening through Monday) Warmer, drier, and breezier conditions will continue the trend upward through the short term period. A closed off upper level low currently overhead will scoot off to the east tonight into Monday morning. Short wave ridging will then move overhead on Monday in advance of the next short wave trough moving across the Great Basin. Strong subsidence will move overhead on Monday due to the ridging. Warmer temperatures will also allow for deep boundary layer mixing. Stronger surface cyclogenesis will occur on Monday in southeastern Colorado in response to the short wave trough in the Great Basin. Increasing downsloping winds will also bring warmer temperatures with afternoon temperatures on the order of five to ten degrees above seasonal averages.
An upper trough parked off the Pac NW coast will keep the area under mild southwest flow today. Models are slightly later with the shower development across SW Idaho this afternoon, especially in the lower Snake Plain.
1203 PM CDT Sun Mar 10 2024 (Today and tonight) Upper air analysis early this morning depicts a weak and compact midlevel low centered over southern New Mexico within a broader upper level ridge axis extending northward through the central CONUS. With an otherwise dry column and modest south-southwesterly flow establishing through most of the lower atmosphere, temperatures will warm nicely into the middle and upper 60s this afternoon with surface winds remaining pleasantly light.
As the high pressure moves east, surface winds will shift to become more easterly. However, increasing cloud cover has the potential to keep the region a bit warmer preventing the possible frost. Afterwards mostly cloudy skies should dominate as high temperatures will warm into the low to mid 60s.
-Bernhart MORNING DISCUSSION: Welcome to Daylight Savings Time y'all! The ridge axis of the upper-level trough will continue sliding east toward the Great Lakes region. By Monday, the trough that was along the West Coast moves into the Western US, but flattening out as it clears east of the Continental Divide, bringing a more zonal-like flow and plateau- ing the warm up across northeast Montana.
247 PM EDT Sun Mar 10 2024 * Clear and cool tonight with low temperatures below freezing Monday morning.
(This evening through Monday) Dry conditions will continue through Monday, along with warmer temperatures. Temperatures will be a little warmer tonight, owing to slightly higher moisture and light south winds, with overnight lows mainly in the low to mid 40s. Near seasonal temperatures can be expected tomorrow, with afternoon highs in the lower 70s, with light south winds prevailing. (Monday night through next Sunday)Temperatures will be milder A continued warm up expected through midweek with a lee trough bringing south to southwest winds.
Southeast winds will return on Monday with max temps a little warmer likely reaching the lower to mid 70s. As humidity levels creep up a little on Monday night, min temps will be several degrees warmer with low 60s expected along the immediate coast.