Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A strong ridge is in place off to our west with deep troughing just to our east. This keeps our area within northerly flow from the low to upper levels. This yields min RH values in the low to upper 20s for most areas. This is slightly higher than what occurred yesterday as today's max temps will be slightly cooler. For todays' max temps, went with the warmer MAV guidance due to the very dry air in place.
955 PM CST Mon Feb 5 2024 (This evening through Tuesday) With light winds and mostly clear skies tonight, radiational cooling will likely result in areas of fog toward morning (CAMs show the highest chances in parts of western Oklahoma).
(Today and tonight) An upper level ridge axis has shifted to the east of the forecast area with increasing mid/upper level flow expected through the short term period of the forecast in advance of an upper level trough moving onto the West Coast today and toward the desert southwest tonight. Progged thickness increases point to warmer temperatures today, on the order of 5-6 degrees, although increasing cirrus may offset some of that increase. The overall set up does not change overnight, and with the abundant cirrus and south winds remaining near 10 kts throughout the night the warmer NBM low temperatures relative to MOS look quite reasonable.
A mid-level trough axis will lift north out of Nevada tomorrow with the low center moving overhead tomorrow night into Wednesday. Convergence along this axis and within the low center will generate a slow-moving band of rain and snow across the area, oriented southwest to northeast. Several inches of snow are possible in the higher terrain, highest in Idaho above 5000 feet, and winter weather headlines may be needed in subsequent forecast packages. Scattered showers are expected in the wake of the warm front in SW Idaho and Baker County, Oregon through tonight due to a marginally moist and unstable atmosphere.
101 AM EST Tue Feb 6 2024 High pressure and a persistent ridge through most of this week will provide for fair weather and above normal temperatures that will top out at 20 degrees or more above average by mid to late week.
Clear across the region as high pressure continues to dominate the weather. Fair weather and moderating temperatures as high pressure dominates at the surface and aloft. While aloft ridging will build eastward and strengthen.
1038 PM CST Mon Feb 5 2024 (This evening through Tuesday) A rather benign weather pattern is expected for this evening through tomorrow as an upper-level ridge is starting to build in across the region. A few low-lying locations could get close to freezing by sunrise. The high pressure center should move eastward by tomorrow afternoon and allow southeast winds to increase to 5 to 10 MPH.
(Today) A ~15 degree ridge-valley temperature split was observed this morning as the boundary layer flow has slackened in some of our valleys despite the current pressure gradient. Dry north-northeast flow will persist today as a high pressure ridge shifts east into the lower MO valley through TX.
1043 PM CST Mon Feb 5 2024 (Tonight) As high pressure continues to expand across the Midwest an into the Southeast, drier air will continue filtering into the region.
1026 PM CST Mon Feb 5 2024 - Seasonally mild early week temperatures trend markedly warmer by the end of the week.
Temperatures early this morning range from the upper 40s to the low 50s under clear skies and light north winds. Sunny and mild today with temperatures in the low to mid 70s and light winds. Low temperatures tonight will be slightly warmer, generally in the lower 50s. Wednesday will be warmer with highs in the upper 70s to the lower 80s, which is above normal for early February.
Otherwise, a fairly quiet day weather-wise with warmer temperatures expected this afternoon with highs in the 60s across the fa. Warmer temperatures are expected tonight as well with temperatures falling into the 40s tonight into early Wednesday.
1108 PM MST Mon Feb 5 2024 - Strong Pacific Storm will bring heavy snow to the eastern San Juan Mountains beginning Tuesday afternoon, with lighter snow spreading to all the higher terrain Tuesday night into Wednesday.
An upper ridge will move east over the region through Wed as well.
1040 PM CST Mon Feb 5 2024 (This evening through Tuesday) The last little bit of low stratus has finally burned off over the region as the upper level ridging has moved to just the west of the FA.
Temperatures are below freezing in many locations as well, which could allow for the development of slick spots on some roadways and elevated surfaces where fog is thick. Temperatures will be slow to warm where fog or low clouds linger, but once sunshine returns, we should warm quickly into the low 50s. An amplified meridional flow pattern is in place aloft across the country today, with ridging over the central CONUS and troughing along the west coast. At the surface, high pressure over the area will advance eastward today as low pressure deepens in the foothills of the Rockies.
The low pressure system responsible for these breezes is currently sitting off the east coast of the Florida Peninsula just north of the Bahamas. KBYX radar detects scattered showers across our CWA with a few exiting the Lower Keys. This is likely due to our abnormally low freezing levels via colder than usual air aloft. Today, northwesterly breezes will continue to freshen behind the cold front that the low dragged through our area last night. As a result, cooler and drier conditions will prevail today with only a slight chance of showers early this morning. The low pressure system that has brought our area active weather for the past few days will continue to provide strong to near gale breezes into tonight as it shifts towards Bermuda and deepens to near 990 mb.
(Today through Wednesday) A mid to upper level ridge will begin moving into the region today with the ridge axis expected over South Texas tonight. Onshore flow will return early tomorrow morning as the ridge begins to vacate the region.
A deep trough of low pressure over the California coast is pushing Pacific moisture into the central Idaho this morning under southerly flow aloft. The low will track northeast, spreading precipitation into southwest Montana. By Wednesday morning, the upper level low becomes positioned over southern Idaho.
/Issued 1213 AM CST Tue Feb 6 2024/ /Through Wednesday/ Ridging aloft and at the surface will continue to provide a quiet weather pattern along with above-normal temperatures (by 5 to 10 degrees) through Wednesday. Surface winds will be light as the ridge axis passes through the area, with light northwest winds shifting to light southeast by noon Tuesday.
513 AM CST Tue Feb 6 2024 Clear skies and calm conditions are expected today as surface ridging builds into the region, while a mid-level low continues moving east out of the southeastern region. Drier air and northerly flow will continue moving south into the Lower Mississippi Valley, keeping any chance for rain at bay.
For the next 24-48 hours, we'll remain under the influence of an upper level trough.
Today will be slightly cooler due to cloud cover, with highs closer to 5 degrees above normal.
Patchy drizzle or freezing drizzle may accompany the fog. - Chances for freezing drizzle increase on Wednesday morning ahead of an approaching storm system.
523 AM CST Tue Feb 6 2024 * Dense freezing fog this morning, with slick spots possible on roads, sidewalks, parking lots, etc.
400 AM CST Tue Feb 6 2024 Clear skies and calm conditions are expected today as surface ridging builds into the region, while a mid-level low continues moving east out of the southeastern region. Drier air and northerly flow will continue moving south into the Lower Mississippi Valley, keeping any chance for rain at bay.
30 Previous Discussion: /Through Wednesday/ Ridging aloft and at the surface will continue to provide a quiet weather pattern along with above-normal temperatures (by 5 to 10 degrees) through Wednesday. Surface winds will be light as the ridge axis passes through the area, with light northwest winds shifting to light southeast by noon Tuesday.
A few stray showers linger primarily over Humboldt early this morning as high pressure fills in aloft. Northerly flow is becoming uniform over the waters as heights increase behind a weakening low pressure system. The axis of an upper level high amplitude trough is slowly traversing the west coast, rendering the atmosphere relatively unstable. Models are inconsistent regarding the strength of the low level jet and its proximity to the CA coast.
Temperatures will be slightly warmer today with highs into the upper 60s to low 70s. Tonight's low temperatures will range a few degrees warmer with values mainly in the mid 40s. Quiet weather continues on Wednesday, though it will be warmer than today. Clouds will be on the increase during the afternoon and evening ahead of a warm front lifting northward into our area.
637 AM EST Tue Feb 6 2024 High pressure over the region will linger through Wednesday night.
Showers are expected tonight through the weekend, with cooler temperatures and increased chances of snow in valleys.
514 AM CST Tue Feb 6 2024 (Today and tonight) An upper level ridge axis has shifted to the east of the forecast area with increasing mid/upper level flow expected through the short term period of the forecast in advance of an upper level trough moving onto the West Coast today and toward the desert southwest tonight. Progged thickness increases point to warmer temperatures today, on the order of 5-6 degrees, although increasing cirrus may offset some of that increase. The overall set up does not change overnight, and with the abundant cirrus and south winds remaining near 10 kts throughout the night the warmer NBM low temperatures relative to MOS look quite reasonable.
338 AM CST Tue Feb 6 2024 * Dense freezing fog this morning, with slick spots possible on roads, sidewalks, parking lots, etc.
449 AM CST Tue Feb 6 2024 - Areas dense fog this morning to freeze to untreated pavement and bridge decks, leading to potentially slick travel.
531 AM CST Tue Feb 6 2024 (Today through Wednesday) An upper level ridge extends from northeastern Mexico to the Great Lakes region and a deep trough is moving onto the west coast this morning. Temperatures are 5 to 15 degrees cooler than 24 hours ago in the upper 30s to middle 40s. The upper ridge will move slowly toward the east as the west coast trough pushes inland. Temperatures will warm today with highs around three to five degrees warmer than yesterday reaching near to above normal. High temperatures Wednesday will be another couple of degrees warmer.
516 AM CST Tue Feb 6 2024 (Today through Wednesday) A mid to upper level ridge will begin moving into the region today with the ridge axis expected over South Texas tonight. Onshore flow will return early tomorrow morning as the ridge begins to vacate the region.
927 AM EST Tue Feb 6 2024 High pressure over the region will linger through Wednesday night.
407 AM CST Tue Feb 6 2024 (Today) A ~15 degree ridge-valley temperature split was observed this morning as the boundary layer flow has slackened in some of our valleys despite the current pressure gradient. Dry north-northeast flow will persist today as a high pressure ridge shifts east into the lower MO valley through TX.
Rain and snow at the higher elevation will continue over much of the Desert Southwest through tonight.
- Cooler, but still above normal, temperatures to return for the weekend.
The next focus will be the impact of the atmospheric river event and closed low developing in the central plains tonight through the end of the week. Temperatures initially will be right around the freezing mark, which increases the probability for freezing rain. And as very little ice accumulation is required for impacts, have decided to issue a Winter Weather Advisory for Wednesday morning for the freezing rain potential. This will bring widespread rain to the region on Wednesday, with freezing rain possible in the morning.
With plenty of sunshine today, readings should warm into the lower/mid 60s. Clear skies will continue into tonight with light to near calm winds and lows a few degrees cooler than this morning. The ridge center is expected to shift to the E through the short term toward the Atlantic Seaboard by late Wednesday. As the ridge shifts on Wednesday, our flow into C AL will shift to E/SE.
348 AM MST Tue Feb 6 2024 146 AM MST Tue Feb 6 2024 - Unseasonably warm temperatures today - Fog returns tonight - System entering the plains Wednesday will bring cooler temperatures and chance for accumulating snow over portions of northeastern WY, northwestern SD, and the Black Hills. Current upper air analysis depicts messy central US ridge over the Northern Plains with southwesterly flow over the CWA. To our west, an upper level trough sits just off the Pacific coast. We'll stay under the influence of the ridge through today with temperatures well above average for this time of year. Longwave trough over the western US will continue to move eastward, bringing cooler weather into the region by Wednesday. At the sfc, leeside cyclone will deepen over WY/western NE through Wednesday afternoon.
339 AM CST Tue Feb 6 2024 - Patchy dense fog this morning to freeze to untreated pavement and bridge decks, leading to potentially slick travel.
301 AM CST Tue Feb 6 2024 - Fog and freezing fog continue this morning across the area.
At this time, confidence was not high enough to introduce fog into this cycle due to a passing trough and clouds likely sticking around. For the next 24-48 hours, we'll remain under the influence of an upper level trough.
530 AM CST Tue Feb 6 2024 (Today through Wednesday night) 09z WV satellite shows a large scale upper trough over the Pacific coast with a roaring 130 knot southwesterly upper jet advancing over the Four Corners. While widespread cirrus may limit top end warming potential, should still see highs in the low to mid 60s.
(This afternoon through Wednesday) Skies are clear and sunny across the Southeast this afternoon amidst a broad region of high pressure extending from the Ohio Valley southwest into the ArkLaTex. Temperature and dewpoint trends have been favoring the outlier solutions with temperatures trending warmer than forecast and dewpoints trending lower.
234 PM EST Tue Feb 6 2024 Low pressure system off the east coast of Florida will accelerate away from the region tonight as high pressure builds in.
High pressure will bring quiet weather to the Mid-South through Wednesday.
Abundant sunshine and near seasonable temperatures with a northerly flow across the forecast area as high pressure continues to build in from the north. Clear across the region as high pressure continues to build south out of Canada.
The highest temperature so far today is at EYW which measured 70 degrees in the past hour. As the large cyclone over the western North Atlantic recedes to the east, high pressure will spill southeast out of the eastern United States.
(This afternoon through Wednesday Night) It's another beautiful albeit cooler day across Middle Tennessee today with temperatures ranging from the mid 40s in the northeast up to around 60 in the southwest. Tomorrow will be another spectacular and warmer day with highs rising 30 to 40 degrees from morning lows, reaching the 60s areawide. Cirrus clouds will begin increasing/thickening through the day ahead of our next storm system, with strengthening WAA on Wednesday night leading to much warmer lows in the upper 30s to mid 40s.
(This evening through Wednesday) Short wave ridging over the area today will transition to southwest flow aloft tonight and Wednesday, in advance of an upper level trough moving into the Desert Southwest. Lows tonight will be in the low to mid 40s. Lee trough develops on Wednesday, resulting in breezy south winds, with afternoon highs in the mid and upper 60s.
/NEW/ /This Afternoon through Wednesday night/ Dry and subsident air under a ridge aloft will result in a mostly sunny and mild day with temperatures warming into the 60s this afternoon. The upper ridge axis will shift toward the Mississippi Valley tonight in response to deep trough approaching from the West Coast. The approaching trough will bring an increase of high clouds tonight along with gradually falling surface pressure across the Central High Plains. Low level warm air advection will increase on Wednesday as the approaching low pressure system deepens across the western states.
344 PM EST Tue Feb 6 2024 High pressure will persist through Wednesday night.
Sightly cooler than normal tonight and then warmer than normal Wednesday. Mid afternoon surface analysis had a north-south oriented 1022mb ridge just to our west. Mid afternoon satellite imagery/RAP analysis showed a north- south oriented mid level ridge axis just to our west as well. As the mid level ridge axis shifts east wl see a gradual increase of high level clouds.
/Issued 1056 AM CST Tue Feb 6 2024/ /This Afternoon through Wednesday night/ Dry and subsident air under a ridge aloft will result in a mostly sunny and mild day with temperatures warming into the 60s this afternoon. The upper ridge axis will shift toward the Mississippi Valley tonight in response to deep trough approaching from the West Coast. The approaching trough will bring an increase of high clouds tonight along with gradually falling surface pressure across the Central High Plains. Low level warm air advection will increase on Wednesday as the approaching low pressure system deepens across the western states.
As a result, we can expect another mild and comfortable afternoon with highs returning to the low to mid 60s once again.
Northerly winds around 10 knots will become light tonight, then shift to easterly around 10 knots Wednesday as high pressure passes north of the forecast area.
337 PM EST Tue Feb 6 2024 High pressure will build across the east coast as a strong storm system departs slowly out to sea, allowing winds to subside into midweek. High pressure will build down across the entire east coast in with a very high amplitude ridge shifting east through Wednesday as strong storm system lifts slowly east-northeast farther out into the Atlantic. Temps will drop in continued CAA with overnight lows down below freezing most places.
There is some uncertainty on how far west the precipitation will pivot as the latest high resolution models are showing lesser amounts across the lower Snake Plain and Weiser Basin.
Mid and upper level moisture will increase tonight through early Wednesday as a deep upper trough axis accelerates eastward over the Desert Southwest. As a result of expanding cloud cover and a relatively tight surface pressure gradient keeping winds from weakening too much overnight, lows tonight will be quite mild with temperatures only falling into the low to mid 40s by sunrise Wednesday.
Until then, the tight pressure gradient between the low and high pressure building into the eastern US will lead to breezy to windy conditions across east central Florida today. The low will remain far enough offshore that most showers and isolated lightning storms will remain over the local Atlantic waters. Highs today will be below normal due to northerly winds, only reaching the lower to mid-60s. Will see north-northeasterly winds begin to diminish tonight as the low pulls away from the coast, though they will remain around 25-30kts and will not see seas subside. (12Z TAFS) Periods of MVFR CIGs along the coast today into tonight, as a low pressure system pulls away from the coast.
1018 AM MST Tue Feb 6 2024 146 AM MST Tue Feb 6 2024 - Unseasonably warm temperatures today - Fog returns tonight - System entering the plains Wednesday will bring cooler temperatures and chance for accumulating snow over portions of northeastern WY, northwestern SD, and the Black Hills. Current upper air analysis depicts messy central US ridge over the Northern Plains with southwesterly flow over the CWA. To our west, an upper level trough sits just off the Pacific coast. We'll stay under the influence of the ridge through today with temperatures well above average for this time of year. Longwave trough over the western US will continue to move eastward, bringing cooler weather into the region by Wednesday. At the sfc, leeside cyclone will deepen over WY/western NE through Wednesday afternoon.
Last night's frontal passage has brought temperatures down into the lower to mid 60s this morning, with dew points in the mid to upper 50s. Surface analysis places the low pressure that brought us our weather yesterday north of the Bahamas. The pressure gradient associated with this low has maintained strong breezes across the coastal waters and island chain, with marine observation platforms recording magnitudes of 20 to 25 knots and gusts as high as 30 knots. The combination of the cooler temperatures and higher winds has led to a chilly morning by Keys standards. From synopsis, a low-pressure system north of the Bahamas will drive strong to near gale breezes through the Keys through tonight.
1015 AM CST Tue Feb 6 2024 - Fog and freezing fog continue this morning across the area.
1159 AM CST Tue Feb 6 2024 (Today and tonight) An upper level ridge axis has shifted to the east of the forecast area with increasing mid/upper level flow expected through the short term period of the forecast in advance of an upper level trough moving onto the West Coast today and toward the desert southwest tonight. Progged thickness increases point to warmer temperatures today, on the order of 5-6 degrees, although increasing cirrus may offset some of that increase. The overall set up does not change overnight, and with the abundant cirrus and south winds remaining near 10 kts throughout the night the warmer NBM low temperatures relative to MOS look quite reasonable.
1126 AM CST Tue Feb 6 2024 Much cooler today versus this time yesterday with current temperatures in the upper 30s and low 40s in the north to around 50 in the south. Highs today are expected to be around 5-10 degrees lower than yesterday's widespread 60s, only reaching the low 50s in the north to around 60 in the south.
(This evening through Wednesday Night) High cirrus clouds will be on the increase tonight and Wednesday as an upper-level ridge translates east across the forecast area brining southwesterly flow aloft back to the region by Wednesday evening.
1230 PM EST Tue Feb 6 2024 High pressure over the region will linger through Wednesday night.
139 PM CST Tue Feb 6 2024 (Today through Wednesday) A mid to upper level ridge will begin moving into the region today with the ridge axis expected over South Texas tonight. Onshore flow will return early tomorrow morning as the ridge begins to vacate the region.
952 AM CST Tue Feb 6 2024 Much cooler today versus this time yesterday with current temperatures in the upper 30s and low 40s in the north to around 50 in the south. Highs today are expected to be around 5-10 degrees lower than yesterday's widespread 60s, only reaching the low 50s in the north to around 60 in the south.
1129 AM CST Tue Feb 6 2024 (Today through Wednesday) An upper level ridge extends from northeastern Mexico to the Great Lakes region and a deep trough is moving onto the west coast this morning. Temperatures are 5 to 15 degrees cooler than 24 hours ago in the upper 30s to middle 40s. The upper ridge will move slowly toward the east as the west coast trough pushes inland. Temperatures will warm today with highs around three to five degrees warmer than yesterday reaching near to above normal. High temperatures Wednesday will be another couple of degrees warmer.
223 PM EST Tue Feb 6 2024 (This afternoon through Wednesday) Low pressure off the east coast will continue to move out to sea. High pressure, currently stretching from the central Great Lakes back through central TX, will move east overnight. Ridging will remain overhead for tomorrow and tomorrow night.
Most places will fall near to below freezing overnight.
1130 AM CST Tue Feb 6 2024 (Today through Wednesday night) 09z WV satellite shows a large scale upper trough over the Pacific coast with a roaring 130 knot southwesterly upper jet advancing over the Four Corners. While widespread cirrus may limit top end warming potential, should still see highs in the low to mid 60s.