Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A warm night is in store as the mid level ridge settles directly overhead. but coverage should continue to be less than previous days as the better low level forcing keeps shifting northward as the ridge expands across the Southern Plains.
208 PM CDT Sat Aug 24 2024 For the remainder of today, hot conditions are expected to continue, with temperatures in the lower 90s across the region. The CWA remains on the eastern edge of a broad high pressure system over the Southern Plains, which will continue to increase N/NE flow and enable drier conditions for the remainder of the day.
1206 PM CDT Sat Aug 24 2024 (Today and tonight) An upper level trough seen barreling through the Pacific Northwest region this morning will work to push the upper level ridge and associated dome of high pressure out of the TX Panhandle into central Oklahoma this afternoon. While off the Caprock temperatures will remain about 3 to 4 degrees cooler than yesterday around 105 to 109 degrees, just shy of excessive heat criteria. Southerly return flow at 700 and 850 mb will work to increase moisture into the region, with a slight plume of moisture wrapping around the backside of the high pressure as it shifts east this afternoon.
Otherwise, skies are mostly sunny with early afternoon temperatures ranging from the lower 70s in the NE mountains to the mid 80s across SW GA. High temperatures on Sunday will be a few degrees warmer than today as a high pressure ridge continues to builds aloft. Readings will range from near 80 in the highest terrain of the NE to the lower 90s across the SW corner of the area.
(This evening through Sunday) High pressure to the northeast of the area will keep Alabama in the easterly to northeasterly flow through the short term. Drier air is expected to advect into the entire area for Sunday, with heat indices at or slightly better than the high temperatures of low to mid 90s.
Shower activity will come to and end area-wide tonight as the trough pulls away and 500mb heights begin to rise under the influence of a building ridge. Temperatures are expected to increase sharply tomorrow, with highs as much as 10 degrees warmer than today.
131 PM PDT Sat Aug 24 2024 Cooler conditions with dry weather expected this weekend.
Aloft, southeast Arizona is in between high pressure over the southern Plains and a trough over the Great Basin and Pacific Northwest. Dry air ahead of the trough covers most of western Arizona including western Pima County.
927 AM PDT Sat Aug 24 2024 Cooler conditions with dry weather expected this weekend.
Highs continue in the lower to mid 90s each day, with lows in the 70s.
The slightly drier air/lower dewpoints are going to give us slightly lower temperatures tonight as lows range from the lower to mid 70s.
Minimal convection is developing over the high county at this time.
Satellite imagery is showing a broad cloud shield in advance of an upper low centered over northern CA this morning. Much of the precipitation has been focused over northern NV through early this morning, but will see scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms fill in this afternoon as the low center tracks along the northern NV border. Southerly winds in advance of the low will continue to push wildfire smoke from the w-central ID mtns into MT today.
Afternoon satellite imagery shows an upper low just north of the Lake Tahoe region with dense cloud deck streaming out ahead of the low. As this low continues to push east throughout the remainder of the day, cloudy skies will likely be the norm across the region and temperatures. Better rain chances look to be throughout the day Sunday as the low moves over the region.
(This evening through Sunday) The heat was dialing back a smidge this afternoon in the wake of a strong upper high over central Oklahoma set to move even farther away from us by Sunday. In the wake of this high, satellite imagery at 1 PM showed a compact impulse exiting north into the TX Panhandle complete with a few dwindling showers and some cloudy skies. Weak subsidence trailing this wave may put a damper on additional spotty showers/storms for this afternoon and evening, though improved dewpoints area wide along with peak heating around the corner warrants keeping a broad mention of isolated PoPs until the low levels stabilize with sunset.
336 PM EDT Sat Aug 24 2024 High pressure will continue mostly dry conditions Sunday, outside of a few afternoon showers across the interior.
High pressure over the mid-Atlantic states continues to ridge southwest over Florida producing a predominant easterly wind flow across the region. Seasonal temps expected with overnight lows in the 70's and highs in the low to mid 90's on Sunday.
(Tonight) Quiet/tranquil wx conditions prevail across the mid TN Valley this Sat evening, as high pressure at the sfc remains layered across the mid/southern Atlantic states. Current temps have fallen mainly into the lower/mid 70s and with dew pts in the upper 50s/lower 60s, lows into early Sun should have little trouble falling into the lower 60s/near 60F.
Warm, dry and windy to very windy conditions can be expected across western Utah today ahead of an approaching cold front. A cold front will bring much cooler temperatures to northern and central Utah for Sunday while the south remains mild.
623 PM CDT Sat Aug 24 2024 (This afternoon through Sunday night) An upper level high that was over West Texas a couple of days ago has migrated east along the Red River valley. A strong upper low moving into the West Coast and will gradually erode the high pressure as it moves east, causing temperatures to decrease. Today will still be hot with highs exceeding 100 degrees in many locations but tomorrow will be noticeably "cooler" with highs holding in the 90s everywhere but the western Low Rolling Plains and Rio Grande valley. Climatologically, it gets much harder to hit triple digits once September arrives and we start seeing more frequent, and powerful, cold fronts. Rainfall in the short term will be confined to the higher elevations west of the Pecos River.
634 PM CDT Sat Aug 24 2024 (This evening through Sunday) The heat was dialing back a smidge this afternoon in the wake of a strong upper high over central Oklahoma set to move even farther away from us by Sunday. In the wake of this high, satellite imagery at 1 PM showed a compact impulse exiting north into the TX Panhandle complete with a few dwindling showers and some cloudy skies. Weak subsidence trailing this wave may put a damper on additional spotty showers/storms for this afternoon and evening, though improved dewpoints area wide along with peak heating around the corner warrants keeping a broad mention of isolated PoPs until the low levels stabilize with sunset.
For the remainder of today, hot conditions are expected to continue, with temperatures in the lower 90s across the region. The CWA remains on the eastern edge of a broad high pressure system over the Southern Plains, which will continue to increase N/NE flow and enable drier conditions for the remainder of the day.
938 PM CDT Sat Aug 24 2024 Quiet conditions are expected to continue tonight, as the region remains on the Wrn periphery of weak low level ridging that persists from the Ern Seaboard SW into N LA/extreme E TX.
(Now through Sunday night) Drier conditions continue through the weekend as upper level ridging begins to build into the southeast. A subtle upper low will continue to retrograde westward over the northern Gulf and we will move onto the eastern side of this low on Sunday. The rest of being sandwiched between the upper low and upper high gives us a mostly dry forecast on Sunday with only an isolated shot of a shower along the immediate coast. Temperatures will continue to range in the low 90s; however, with the strengthening ridge we may sneak some mid 90s in tomorrow. The high risk of rip currents will likely drop to moderate tonight and remain moderate throughout the week as the upper level low moves further west.
600 PM CDT Sat Aug 24 2024 (Tonight) High pressure continuing to promote clear/dry conditions across the Tennessee Valley this afternoon. Overnight lows will once again drop into the low to mid 60s. Certainly quite comfortable for late August, especially with the lower RH values overnight.
Gusty southwesterly winds and cooler than normal temperatures are on tap for the region today.
High pressure and calm conditions, especially overnight, will prevail with >1020 mb dominating at the sfc. Ridging across the Great Plains and Mississippi Valley continues to result in strong subsidence with clear sky conditions and lower dew points across our region. Discussion: Upper-level 597 dam 500mb ridge across the Great Plains and mid- Mississippi Valley continues to place us within northwest flow aloft with subsidence and clear sky conditions. Otherwise, 850mb heights will continue to rise with warming boundary layer temperatures resulting in max temperatures 3 to 4 degrees warmer than today.
Nonetheless, remember to stay hydrated if you will be spending time outdoors! Hernandez Previous Discussion: /This Afternoon through Sunday Night/ The center of our persistent mid level ridge will continue to be nudged northward through the weekend which will provide some relief to the hot weather we've had over the last week. On Sunday, a westward moving upper trough over the Gulf will approach the TX coast by late in the day.
Temperatures along the island chain are hovering in the lower 80s, with dewpoints in the mid to upper 70s, and winds on land from the northeast to east at 5 to 10 mph. Surface analysis depicts a weak trough just east of Florida, extending southward to just west of Andros Island. Aloft, a well- defined mid/upper level low continues to spin over the central Gulf. There certainly is plenty of moisture available, with the combination of the mid/upper trough to our west and the trough/tropical wave axis to our east providing potential sources for forcing. Otherwise, expect partly to mostly cloudy skies to continue, with temperatures remaining in the lower 80s for the rest of the night outside of any downpours.
932 PM CDT Sat Aug 24 2024 Temperatures across the Mid-South range from the lower 70s to mid 80s under mostly clear skies.
Temperatures much cooler than average expected tonight along with rain, which will continue into Sunday before exiting the forecast area. Tonight through Sunday Night Upper trof and attendant cold front continue to progress east tonight, with the leading edge of the front moving into Utah. Light rain will continue across most of the forecast area overnight as a much cooler air mass settles in post frontal. Cool north-northwesterly flow over northern and central Nevada Sunday as the trof continues to progress east. Look for daytime high temperatures in the low 60s to low 70s and overnight lows slightly warmer than the previous night with readings in the low 30s to low 40s expected.
540 PM MDT Sat Aug 24 2024 Temperatures trend cooler through the weekend, with low chances for showers and thunderstorms persisting over the next couple afternoons and evenings. Snow levels drop enough to result in a dusting of snow in the highest elevations of Southwest Montana Sunday night.
858 PM MDT Sat Aug 24 2024 Temperatures trend cooler through the weekend, with low chances for showers and thunderstorms persisting over the next couple afternoons and evenings. Snow levels drop enough to result in a dusting of snow in the highest elevations of Southwest Montana Sunday night.
858 PM EDT Sat Aug 24 2024 High pressure will gradually shift offshore by Sunday night.
928 PM EDT Sat Aug 24 2024 Made a few tweaks to PoPs through the evening as they were a little on the high side, especially near the coast, brining them inline with trends.
Gusty southwesterly winds and cooler than normal temperatures are on tap for the region today. Mesoanalysis shows the center of the upper level trough near Reno, and the feature should proceed east into the Great Basin tonight.
Dewpoints are a few degrees higher than yesterday, and the ridge has started moving off to the north, which is helping to keep our temperatures a few degrees cooler. For tonight, expect partly cloudy/mostly clear skies, with lows mainly in the low to mid 70s.
The heat will build over the next few days as upper level high pressure moves over the region. Upper troughs prevail over the Pacific NW and the NE US while a anomalously strong 597 dm upper ridge is centered over the the Southern Plains.
330 AM EDT Sun Aug 25 2024 Low pressure dropping out of Canada will bring isolated to scattered chances of showers and potential for a few thunderstorms today.
- Chances for precipitation, lighter winds, and cooler temperatures arrive for Sunday.
DISCUSSIONâ¦ Temperatures quite cold this morning with many sites across the region in the mid to upper 40s for the lower valleys and Sierra valleys already dipping well into the mid to low 30s as of 1am.
A few showers or a thunderstorm are still possible across portions of northern Oklahoma or northwest Arkansas this morning, but coverage is expected to be less than previous days as the mid level ridge sits directly overhead and what forcing there is has shifted mostly north of the forecast area. Though the ridge will gradually shift northeastward, allowing for slightly moderated temperatures and less humidity. As the ridge shifts eastward through the middle of the week, a few disturbances will move out of the Gulf and into central Texas.
The Alaskan Trough that brought us cooler temperatures and cloud cover Saturday will spin off to the northeast throughout today.
1259 AM CDT Sun Aug 25 2024 Quiet conditions are expected to continue tonight, as the region remains on the Wrn periphery of weak low level ridging that persists from the Ern Seaboard SW into N LA/extreme E TX.
243 AM MDT Sun Aug 25 2024 Summary: Cooler and wetter conditions are in the forecast for the next two days.
- Strong/severe thunderstorms possible late this afternoon/evening (Today and tonight) As the upper high drifts northeastward today, temperatures will be slightly less hot than yesterday.
1221 AM CDT Sun Aug 25 2024 (This evening through Sunday) The heat was dialing back a smidge this afternoon in the wake of a strong upper high over central Oklahoma set to move even farther away from us by Sunday. In the wake of this high, satellite imagery at 1 PM showed a compact impulse exiting north into the TX Panhandle complete with a few dwindling showers and some cloudy skies. Weak subsidence trailing this wave may put a damper on additional spotty showers/storms for this afternoon and evening, though improved dewpoints area wide along with peak heating around the corner warrants keeping a broad mention of isolated PoPs until the low levels stabilize with sunset.
Upper level trough continues to shift further inland with satellite showing the center of the low currently lifting through Nevada before continuing northward through Idaho tonight.
846 PM PDT Sat Aug 24 2024 Cooler conditions with dry weather expected this weekend.
245 AM EDT Sun Aug 25 2024 High pressure will allow for conditions to remain fairly dry with a gradual warming trend into mid week. Key Message: 1) Benign conditions continue under high pressure with typical morning valley fog possible. Another morning of river valley fog expected from radiational cooling, otherwise persistent ridging keeps the area dry and mostly clear. Temps continue to moderate warmer today as many locations should reach the mid to upper 80s this afternoon.
The unseasonably strong low pressure system has moved east into Nevada, but not before leaving 0. Warmer and drier weather will return this week as high pressure builds.
An upper level trough over the Pacific Northwest will dig southeastward into the Desert Southwest, resulting in the northeastward push of the upper level ridge and dome of high pressure into the Midwest region late this afternoon. This will lead to a slight decrease in thickness values over the region which will allow for the start of cooler temperatures for the South Plains region. Sadly this cool down is not much with temperatures expected to remain elevated this afternoon, as the westward extent of the high pressure clips portions of West Texas.
Today, high pressure remains in control. With the drier air and warmer temps in place, min RH values will be in the 30s this afternoon.
1108 PM CDT Sat Aug 24 2024 Ridging overhead will keep dry weather and clear skies in place for the rest of tonight.
A weakening cold front will drop southward through the region today with continued cooler than normal temperatures and afternoon breezes. A slow return towards more typical late summer temperatures is expected by midweek onward as high pressure slowly builds over the Southwest.
Subsidence in this dry airmass, as well as a strong upper high building in from the SW for the most part has suppressed the development of most daytime heating produced fair weather cumulus. The upper ridge at the 500mb level had maximum heights near 598 decameters over Oklahoma.
1231 AM CDT Sun Aug 25 2024 (Tonight) Quiet/tranquil wx conditions prevail across the mid TN Valley this Sat evening, as high pressure at the sfc remains layered across the mid/southern Atlantic states. Current temps have fallen mainly into the lower/mid 70s and with dew pts in the upper 50s/lower 60s, lows into early Sun should have little trouble falling into the lower 60s/near 60F.
(Today and tonight) The upper ridge will remain the dominant weather feature across the area the next 24 hours, with dry and seasonably hot weather prevailing. The low level thermal ridge will be a bit weaker today, which will result in slightly cooler temperatures compared to yesterday, with highs ranging from the mid/upper 90s across southern sections, to around 100 degrees across the Big Country.
1147 PM CDT Sat Aug 24 2024 (This afternoon through Sunday night) An upper level high that was over West Texas a couple of days ago has migrated east along the Red River valley. A strong upper low moving into the West Coast and will gradually erode the high pressure as it moves east, causing temperatures to decrease. Today will still be hot with highs exceeding 100 degrees in many locations but tomorrow will be noticeably "cooler" with highs holding in the 90s everywhere but the western Low Rolling Plains and Rio Grande valley. Climatologically, it gets much harder to hit triple digits once September arrives and we start seeing more frequent, and powerful, cold fronts. Rainfall in the short term will be confined to the higher elevations west of the Pecos River.
------------------------------------------------------------------- Expansive high pressure over the eastern CONUS will maintain dry conditions. A central CONUS ridge transitioning slowly to the east will maintain northwest flow, and with rising heights and h850 temperatures progged to near 18C, daytime highs will top out 5 to 10 degrees above average.
Made a few tweaks to PoPs through the evening as they were a little on the high side, especially near the coast, brining them in line with trends.
1145 PM CDT Sat Aug 24 2024 Temperatures across the Mid-South range from the lower 70s to mid 80s under mostly clear skies.
604 AM CDT Sun Aug 25 2024 (Today through Monday) An upper level ridge will continue to shift north today while an upper low continues towards the central Texas coast moving west across the Gulf of Mexico. The upper low moves inland tonight into Monday morning with higher coverage of shower and thunderstorm activity expected tomorrow.
The upper high is currently centered over the southern plains and it will slowly slide eastward as we move into the work week.
Otherwise, conditions will begin trending warmer and dryer as an upper ridge quickly builds into the region. Short range models continue to indicate interior highs rising into the low to mid 80's this afternoon, nearing 90 in southern Mendocino and Lake counties. Breezy conditions will continue as the backside of the trough slowly exits the region. Moderate 10-15 mph NW winds are expected this afternoon, especially in the higher elevations of Mendocino and Lake counties.
The upper air pattern this morning was characterized by a upper level trough centered over the Pacific Northwest and Great Basin and a upper level high centered near the Kansas and Oklahoma border. As the trough has progressed inland over the west coast, the mean flow has become southwesterly across the Desert Southwest bringing with it substantially drier air in the mid levels along with a noticeable drying trend in surface moisture. The trough is progged to move north and east over the northern Rockies and into the northern plains Sunday which will allow ridging to start slowly stretching back into southeast Arizona.
- Warm once again on Monday, then cooler through the middle of the week. - A strong cold front expected later in the week, with cool temperatures and active weather expected through the weekend. Water vapor imagery this morning indicates an upper jet max extending from the Desert Southwest to the Upper High Plains as the upper ridge prevails over the Southern Plains. Surface analysis indicates a stationary front draped from the Upper High Plains to the Ohio River Valley.
604 AM CDT Sun Aug 25 2024 (Today through Monday) High pressure will remain centered near the Appalachians through Monday. Low level thicknesses increase today and Monday, which should allow temperatures to be warmer over the next two days.
- Significant temperature relief is expected behind a cold front Monday night, along with a return of periodic thunderstorm chances.
on the western periphery of a pronounced upper level ridge anchored over the Southern and Central Plains. Hostile environmental conditions beneath the ridge -- e. Mon-Mon night: The 'core' of the aforementioned ridge will shift east toward the Central MS River Valley in this period as a well-defined upper wave/low. Aside from the slight eastward shift of the upper level ridge, environmental conditions over the Central Plains appear analogous to today and yesterday. With this in mind, expect sensible weather conditions similar to today and yesterday, albeit with a relatively greater potential for diurnal convection, mainly in eastern Colorado -- areas [1] further removed from the upper ridge and [2] in closer proximity to the Colorado Front Range, Cheyenne Ridge and Palmer Divide (climatologically/topographically favored development areas).
633 AM EDT Sun Aug 25 2024 High pressure will allow for conditions to remain fairly dry with a gradual warming trend into mid week. Key Message: 1) Benign conditions continue under high pressure with typical morning valley fog possible. Another morning of river valley fog expected from radiational cooling, otherwise persistent ridging keeps the area dry and mostly clear. Temps continue to moderate warmer today as many locations should reach the mid to upper 80s this afternoon.
Expansive high pressure over the eastern CONUS will maintain mostly dry conditions. A central CONUS ridge transitioning slowly to the east will maintain northwest flow, and with rising heights and h850 temperatures progged to near 18C, daytime highs will top out 5 to 10 degrees above average.
1018 AM EDT Sun Aug 25 2024 Stalled front to the north continues to wash out as high pressure builds over the area, with a tropical wave moving over south FL/FL Keys today.
500 mb ridge over eastern ND into Minnesota today. Cold front moves through late today and tonight.
A few showers or a thunderstorm are still possible across portions of northern Oklahoma or northwest Arkansas this morning, but coverage is expected to be less than previous days as the mid level ridge sits directly overhead and what forcing there is has shifted mostly north of the forecast area.
639 AM CDT Sun Aug 25 2024 (Today and tonight) The upper ridge will remain the dominant weather feature across the area the next 24 hours, with dry and seasonably hot weather prevailing. The low level thermal ridge will be a bit weaker today, which will result in slightly cooler temperatures compared to yesterday, with highs ranging from the mid/upper 90s across southern sections, to around 100 degrees across the Big Country.