Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Breezy northeast winds continues as a broad high pressure sits along the Eastern Seaboard and a broad easterly undulation moves closer to Florida. Stable air hugging the Bayside/Gulfside waters will make it difficult for showers to persist over the Lower and Middle Keys. A broad region of high pressure over New England and a tropical wave over Hispaniola continues to fuel fresh to strong breezes and isolated to scattered showers over the Florida Keys coastal waters. The high will sink into the North Atlantic and weaken during the work week which will support slackening breezes.
- Forecast trends continue to be dry and warmer than normal high temperatures through this week. As a result, weak frontal boundaries are observed through the portions of the central Plains with a cold front working through the area. A nice week looks to be on tap for the week before Christmas with mostly above normal temperatures and mainly dry cool/cold frontal passages throughout the week.
KEY MESSAGES: - Warmer temperatures and rain returning this afternoon. ------------------------------------------------------------------- A 500mb ridge will move across the region this morning. This ridge will provide a respite from the rain and also spread much warmer air across the region. Rain will overspread the region from west to east in conjunction with the warmer air. 30 inches today range from 40 to 80% with the higher values over Ohio.
KEY MESSAGES: - Warmer air surging northward will bring an end to the freezing rain threat. - Warmer temperatures and rain returning this afternoon. Warmer air will continue to surge northward behind the exiting upper low which will also bring an end to the threat for freezing rain. A 500mb ridge will move across the region this morning. This ridge will provide a respite from the rain and also spread much warmer air across the region. Rain will overspread the region from west to east in conjunction with the warmer air. 30 inches today range from 40 to 80% with the higher values over Ohio.
A weak cold front approaching from the northwest will push into our area tonight.
1047 PM CST Sun Dec 15 2024 - Above normal temps for both Mon and Tue with cooler readings Wed. At the surface lee troughing remains in place with return flow across the Southern Plains. Still looking for some showers and storms to develop just ahead of the trough over far southeast KS this evening, which will also be in an area of mid level moisture transport.
(Today and tonight) Still under the influence of high pressure, temperatures this afternoon will be warm in the mid to upper 70s today.
- Snow chances and cooler temperatures return mid week.
High pressure will build back in by midweek and provide dry conditions and temperatures 6 to 10 degrees above their seasonal norms for the rest of the week.
- The next trough will bring a brief shot of snow to the mountains Tuesday into early evening.
(Now through Tuesday night) Upper ridging will move eastward through the day, as a trough digs into the Plains. At the surface, high pressure remains along the eastern CONUS, with easterly flow over the local area. Low clouds have filtered into the area, in response to increasing moisture in the lower levels. As the axis of the ridge slides further east today, southwesterly flow will continue the stream of moisture into the area. This, along with winds becoming more southerly will allow temps to warm into the lower to mid 70s. The aforementioned trough will weaken as it moves into the Ohio Valley tonight, with flow this far south becoming more zonal.
Cloud cover Tuesday night will inhibit efficient radiational cooling and will keep lows in the low to mid 60s area wide.
80" for the higher terrain of the North Bay region, and closer to 0.
The strong high pressure over the eastern United States will sink into the North Atlantic and weaken during the week which will support slackening breezes.
- Snow chances and cooler temperatures return mid week. Not a ton of change in this expected today in advance of a cold front set to cross the area from west to east later this afternoon. Some of these showers likely to mix with or change over to wet snow over the higher terrain, especially after 08-09z. Some minor snow accumulations become probable by early Tuesday morning -- again with the highest probabilities of up to ~0. Forecast Pattern: Tuesday morning, west winds and weak upper level troughing will allow light LES showers to linger near the tip of the mitt and eastern upper. Skies will be mostly cloudy with temperatures beginning a gradual cooling trend (however high temps remain near freezing).
(Today and tonight) Currently, there is a weak cold front moving slowly south toward our northern CWA border, as an upper level trough approaches the Texas region from the northwest.
823 AM CST Mon Dec 16 2024 Updated at 815 AM CST Mon Dec 16 2024 - Warmer than normal temperatures are expected today and Tuesday.
A weak storm system will cross the area this afternoon through Tuesday before high pressure settles into the area through at least the end of the week.
A cold front moving into the ArkLaTex region will approach the Lower MS Valley and begin to stall across our region. Expect afternoon highs to peak in the low 70s.
This rain will expand in coverage into the afternoon hours, as another trough and cold front begin to work into the region. As is the trend these last few days, this cold front will work into the region by tonight, before stalling along the I-30 corridor.
- Mild weather will continue through Tuesday, with highs ranging from the 40s to the low 50s. With overnight lows dipping into the upper 20s to low 30s, areas of freezing fog will be possible. Highs currently range from the upper 30s in northeast NE and increase to the low 50s by the NE/KS border.
Temperatures will gradually warm each day with highs topping out in the mid to upper 70s across the lower deserts. A strong ridge of high pressure will continue to build over the region by the middle to latter half of the week with highs soaring to around 10-15 degrees above average.
Continued setup of ridging in place aloft over the area this morning with surface ridging down the E Seaboard into the state.
309 AM MST Mon Dec 16 2024 - Slightly cooler today.
- Warmer than normal temperatures are expected today and Tuesday.
Temperatures likely warmer than normal through the short term period with upper 20s to lower 30s in mountains today and 30s to near 40 valleys. A weak trough is expected to cross through western MT. For Thu through Sat afternoon, high pressure appears to be in control with only fog and stratus being a factor during this time. Coldest night will be Thu night after the trough passage and clearing starts.
(Today through Tuesday) Our region is currently situated under a low-amplitude mid- to upper- level ridge with a corresponding footprint of high pressure wedged along the Appalachians. This is resulting in easterly to southeasterly surface flow, though winds are veering with ease through the low and mid levels. Throughout today the ridge axis is expected to progress eastward along with associated pressure falls as a disturbance moves across the Ohio Valley. Recent guidance has trended a few degrees cooler, so forecast numbers are down a degree or two from previous.
Following a passage of a cold front earlier this morning the winds shifted to the north bringing in cooler and dry air to the panhandles. This wont persist as come Tuesday the winds will shift back to the southwest bringing warmer but still dry air across the panhandles. This will cause Tuesday to be warmer than normal again across the panhandles. Even this wont last as another push of cooler air has a high chance of arriving late on Tuesday pushing temperatures back down again.
619 AM EST Mon Dec 16 2024 High pressure off to the northeast will push farther offshore the next couple days as a weak coastal trough remains off the Carolina coast.
Another weak cold front will also approach the area later today from the west, with perhaps some increasing showers spreading into parts of NW AL late this afternoon. Until then, a persistent south wind near 10 MPH will help afternoon temps climb into the lower/perhaps mid 60s for most spots.
Most of this activity was currently benign, though modest MUCAPE of approximately 1000 J/kg was noted on recent meso-analysis, and ample bulk shear under the passing upper trof should support a conditional, but mrgl threat for isolated strong storms, mainly capable of hail. Buoyancy progs and modest shear invof the aforementioned passing upper trof should result in another conducive environment for some isolated, strong thunderstorms along and ahead of the advancing frnt.
606 AM CST Mon Dec 16 2024 (Today through Tuesday) Our region is currently situated under a low-amplitude mid- to upper- level ridge with a corresponding footprint of high pressure wedged along the Appalachians. This is resulting in easterly to southeasterly surface flow, though winds are veering with ease through the low and mid levels. Throughout today the ridge axis is expected to progress eastward along with associated pressure falls as a disturbance moves across the Ohio Valley. Recent guidance has trended a few degrees cooler, so forecast numbers are down a degree or two from previous.
Models are anticipating the bulk of the snow to fall in the Cascades when the axis of the upper level trough swings through later this evening. We're predicting another 12 to 18 inches in the high Cascades near Diamond Lake and Crater Lake through today into tonight. Heading towards tonight into Tuesday, model guidance begins to dry out northern California while keeping sections of northern Oregon under the precipitation as another warm front pushes into that region.
A cold front passes late this morning, with breezy west winds and slight chances for a rain shower behind it this afternoon.
These winds will eventually go light and variable by this afternoon and tonight as a high pressure center builds over western Kansas. The high pressure center will shift off to the east with weak high plains lee troughing resuming in its wake Tuesday. Therefore, slightly stronger winds are expected Tuesday as the lee trough deepens, but nothing too major as far as southwest Kansas wind standards are considered.
High pressure will then build in bringing a warming trend for the latter half of the week. Low amplitude ridging will be moving across the area today but it will be very dirty. An upper level low located well off the PacNW coast is responsible for these clouds as well as some precip for that same area. Tuesday, a general sense of troughiness will remain across the CWA but with limited moisture and the best support continuing to stay to our north, snow will remain favored over the northern mountains more so due to orographics than any synoptic features.
Active pattern continues as another trough moving across the area for Monday into Tuesday.
- Thunderstorm chances expand again Tuesday evening ahead of the next cold front.
HRRR model guidance suggests that if any convection does occur, it will likely be very isolated and over the lower Texas coastal waters. Finally, elevated seas along the Lower Texas Coast will result in a High Risk of rip currents at the local beaches until around sunset this evening.
614 AM EST Mon Dec 16 2024 (Today and tonight) Still under the influence of high pressure, temperatures this afternoon will be warm in the mid to upper 70s today.
- A quick cold frontal passage will bring another round of gusty winds to the area on Tuesday with a low end (<20%) chance for light snow across northern Nebraska. Thanks to the cold frontal passage, temperatures will be 5 to 10 degrees cooler today as compared to yesterday with highs in the 40s. Surface ridging and pressure falls quickly filling into the area will allow the gusty winds to subside through the evening. Should the forcing shift further south, flurries will certainly be possible for areas generally north of the Highway 2 corridor.
300 PM EST Mon Dec 16 2024 High pressure will remain over the area through Tuesday. A weakening coastal trough will bring isolated showers to the Outer Banks through Tuesday.
Cold front remains just to the northwest of the forecast area. Convective coverage is expected to increase later this afternoon as a weak upper trough approaches the area. Therefore, the high temperature forecast were increased by a few degrees in most locations today. This rain will expand in coverage into the afternoon hours, as another trough and cold front begin to work into the region. As is the trend these last few days, this cold front will work into the region by tonight, before stalling along the I-30 corridor.
1130 AM CST Mon Dec 16 2024 - Areas of fog will continue to lift this afternoon following a cold frontal passage. A cold front passes through the afternoon, with breezy west winds and slight chances for a rain shower behind it this afternoon.
216 PM EST Mon Dec 16 2024 Widespread rainfall becomes more showery this evening ahead of an approaching cold front.
Updated at 235 PM CST Mon Dec 16 2024 - Next cold front arrives Tuesday night with breezy north winds expected and showers/thunderstorms possible. (Rest of today and tonight) North winds diminish as high pressure moves in behind the departing cold front this evening before transitioning to the south early Tuesday morning. Warmer overnight lows (40's) are expected over SE Oklahoma with the denser cloud-cover.
The main story this week into the weekend is going to be the near record to record daytime high temperatures for much of the forecast area as heights build due to increased ridging aloft over the next few days.
1216 PM EST Mon Dec 16 2024 Widespread rainfall becomes more showery this evening ahead of an approaching cold front.
As the cold front nudges farther southward, more organized shower activity is expected over the northern half of the area this evening into tonight. A cold front moving into the ArkLaTex region will approach the Lower MS Valley and begin to stall across our region. Expect afternoon highs to peak in the low 70s.
(This evening through Tuesday) A weak cold front will continue to move south through the area today, reaching the I-10 corridor this evening. Winds behind the front will become light from the north, with slightly cooler temperatures. The weak cold front will then stall just south of the area and eventually dissipate.
DS/12 (Now through Tuesday) Upper ridging will move eastward through the day, as a trough digs into the Plains. At the surface, high pressure remains along the eastern CONUS, with easterly flow over the local area. Low clouds have filtered into the area, in response to increasing moisture in the lower levels. As the axis of the ridge slides further east today, southwesterly flow will continue the stream of moisture into the area. This, along with winds becoming more southerly will allow temps to warm into the lower to mid 70s. The aforementioned trough will weaken as it moves into the Ohio Valley tonight, with flow this far south becoming more zonal.
226 PM EST Mon Dec 16 2024 High pressure and associated cold air damming will extend across the Piedmont of the Carolinas, while gradually weakening, through Tuesday.
256 PM EST Mon Dec 16 2024 High pressure off to the northeast will push farther offshore over the next couple days as a weak coastal trough remains off the Carolina coast.
A high pressure system located offshore of New England last night would typically be the dominant feature for Keys weather. Instead, an inverted trough observed north northwest of the Turks and Caicos Islands will be the primary feature of interest for tonight's weather. Breezes are slackening as the trough approaches the Keys and the high shifts further into the North Atlantic. However, the inverted trough will bring a shallow plume of tropical moisture to the Florida Keys along with an increase in CAPE. The morning package added thunderstorms tonight, a decision further supported by decreasing heights as measured by the 12Z KKEY sounding and a lower freezing level.
114 PM EST Mon Dec 16 2024 High pressure off to the northeast will push farther offshore the next couple days as a weak coastal trough remains off the Carolina coast.
(This evening through Tuesday Night) At 20z, a cold front was still northwest of the area across North Central Texas, into Southern Oklahoma, Northwest Arkansas, and Southern Missouri. This should keep the highest rain chances mainly north of a line from Tyler TX to El Dorado AR. A much stronger upper trough will begin to dive southeast through the Plains, which will drive a stronger cold front towards the area.
By midweek, quiet and dry weather with a gradual warming trend is expected as high pressure builds over the western U. Tonight through Tuesday night Current satellite imagery shows low to mid level cloud cover as a trough of low pressure is moving across the forecast area. Precipitation will begin to taper off Tuesday afternoon as the aforementioned trough moves east across Utah, while a ridge of a high pressure strengthens over the western U.
The clockwise flow around the high will enable a persistent northeasterly to easterly wind flow through Tuesday. Temperatures will remain warm with highs reaching the lower 80s and overnight lows ranging from the mid to upper 60s in Southwest Florida to the lower to mid 70s along the Atlantic coast.
A cold front has progressed through the area. Another weak cold front will move through Tuesday night, but will likely do little more than shift the wind to the northwest and bring some slightly cooler air into the area.
(Through Tuesday Night) We remain under the influence of high pressure through Tuesday night, leading to pleasant weather conditions as high temps reach the mid to upper 70s.
Updated at 223 PM CST Mon Dec 16 2024 - Showers and storms along cold front to exit SE OK later this afternoon/early evening. - Thunderstorm chances increase again Tuesday evening/night ahead of the next cold front.
1026 AM MST Mon Dec 16 2024 - Slightly cooler today.
1123 AM CST Mon Dec 16 2024 (Today through Tuesday) Our region is currently situated under a low-amplitude mid- to upper- level ridge with a corresponding footprint of high pressure wedged along the Appalachians. This is resulting in easterly to southeasterly surface flow, though winds are veering with ease through the low and mid levels. Throughout today the ridge axis is expected to progress eastward along with associated pressure falls as a disturbance moves across the Ohio Valley. Recent guidance has trended a few degrees cooler, so forecast numbers are down a degree or two from previous.
Then as the cold front enters, winds will veer to the north.
1143 AM EST Mon Dec 16 2024 (Today and tonight) Still under the influence of high pressure, temperatures this afternoon will be warm in the mid to upper 70s today.
1144 AM CST Mon Dec 16 2024 Updated at 1132 AM CST Mon Dec 16 2024 - Warmer than normal temperatures are expected today and Tuesday.
Expect stable, zonal flow to develop over the Southwest for today and into Tuesday before a ridge of high pressure amplifies over much of the West for the latter half of the week.
1017 AM EST Mon Dec 16 2024 High pressure off to the northeast will push farther offshore the next couple days as a weak coastal trough remains off the Carolina coast.
(Tonight) A weakening cold front is approaching the area later today and into the evening.
As a cold front currently extending from the ArkLaTex through the Mid South advances southward this evening, a line or broken line of showers and embedded thunderstorms is expected to develop and push into the area this evening.
Meanwhile, the dominant weather feature for the Keys today and tonight will be a low level inverted trough located over the Turks and Caicos Islands. Already, the KKEY 12Z sounding sampled lower heights and a lower freezing level than yesterday with a PWAT near the 50th percentile for the day. The trough will slowly move west this afternoon and bring a pulse of shallow moisture to the Straits late tonight. A very odd December pattern, in sum, because typically inverted troughs sink south of the Keys in early Winter. From synopsis, elongated high pressure across the eastern United States and a tropical wave over the Turks and Caicos Islands continue to promote fresh to strong breezes this afternoon. The high will sink into the North Atlantic and weaken during the work week which will support slackening breezes.
(This evening through Tuesday) The cold front's impact will be short lived with temperatures warming back up above seasonal averages for Tuesday.
A cold front is currently approaching from the northwest and will move into our area overnight. Near record high-minimum temperatures are expected tonight with temps in the low to mid 50s.
Surface ridging coupled with upper level ridging will continue to keep conditions warm and humid today and tomorrow.
(This evening through Tuesday night) Upper ridging currently along the East Coast and over the Intermountain West. Troughing extended from the western Great Lakes to near El Paso. At the surface, it was pretty much a repeat of the upper pattern with high pressure along the East Coast. Low pressure over western Ontario had a frontal boundary southward into Missouri, then southwest to west Texas.
A decaying cold front over NorCal this afternoon will bring areas of light rain to San Luis Obispo County late this afternoon and into the mid evening, mainly from Morro Bay north to Monterey County.
654 PM EST Mon Dec 16 2024 (Through Tuesday Night) We remain under the influence of high pressure through Tuesday night, leading to pleasant weather conditions as high temps reach the mid to upper 70s.
521 PM CST Mon Dec 16 2024 (This evening through Tuesday night) Upper ridging currently along the East Coast and over the Intermountain West. Troughing extended from the western Great Lakes to near El Paso. At the surface, it was pretty much a repeat of the upper pattern with high pressure along the East Coast. Low pressure over western Ontario had a frontal boundary southward into Missouri, then southwest to west Texas.
223 PM MST Mon Dec 16 2024 - 5 to 10 F warmer tomorrow.
827 PM EST Mon Dec 16 2024 Evening update to mainly keep elevated PoPs through the rest of the evening, as many of the high resolution models are struggling with how far east the precipitation will maintain headed towards the southern Appalachians. A cold front is currently approaching from the northwest and will move into our area overnight. Near record high-minimum temperatures are expected tonight with temps in the low to mid 50s.
Lastly, elevated moisture will result in low temperatures merely dipping into the lower to mid 50s later tonight.
- Thunderstorm chances increase again Tuesday evening/night ahead of the next cold front.
* Dry conditions will continue with warmer than normal temperatures through Tuesday night. Amid a semi-zonal west-southwest 500 mb flow pattern and higher geopotential heights in place, temperatures are expected to remain warmer than seasonable norms through Tuesday night with highs in the low to mid 80s and lows in the 60s.
313 PM CST Mon Dec 16 2024 - A cold front has moved through this afternoon, with breezy west winds and chances for rain showers behind it this evening.
638 PM EST Mon Dec 16 2024 Widespread rainfall becomes more showery this evening ahead of an approaching cold front.
Drier and warmer weather then accompany potentially foggy mornings through mid to late week. Amplified ridging aloft is then expected to quickly build in on the heels of the departing system from Tuesday through the remainder of the week. This will usher in a period of drier and seasonably warmer weather.