Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Temperatures will also remain cooler than normal thanks to much lower heights. The bulk of guidance keeps the nose of this low level jet south of our area, however this should allow for 500 to at most 850 J/kg of MUCAPE to make it to our area and combine with the aforementioned frontogenesis.
1202 PM CDT Sun Aug 4 2024 - Cooler week ahead with several rain chances. Our cooler airmass has arrived and will be with us the next 7 days. The Hudson Bay 500 mb low is moving east into northern Quebec but there is additiona 500 mb waves that will over time squash the 500 mb ridge over the Rockies a bit south and put the area in a zonal or west-northwest flow aloft. For Wed-Thu model agreement is is better for mid to late week than they were 24 hours in showing lowering 500 mb heights with an upper low dropping south into SE Sask/SW Manitoba.
A cold front will cross the region on Monday, bringing chances for showers and thunderstorms, some of which could produce locally heavy rainfall, damaging winds and large hail.
1243 PM CDT Sun Aug 4 2024 - High temperatures are expected to climb into the lower to middle 90s today and Monday with afternoon heat index values ranging from 95 to around 100 degrees.
As the low-level jet becomes stronger late tonight, with have to watch the precip over southwest Minnesota & a few CAMs show a cluster or two of stronger storms and a marginal hail threat developing in response to the increasing instability. Hi-resolution models still exhibit some spread in exactly how far north or south this east-west oriented band will develop, but ensemble guidance has the highest chances for 1-2 inches of rain across east-central Minnesota, through the Twin Cities metro, and into west-central Minnesota. Temperatures will be cool through the day north of the boundary, with daytime temperatures remaining steady in the low to mid 60s.
- Hot in central and southern Iowa through Monday, then cooler the rest of the week - Shower/thunderstorms in northern Iowa tonight into Monday.
The strength of the high pressure center is a limiting factor for stronger storm development, especially for the northern zones.
- Cooler and less humid weather is expected during the middle and end of the week. A cold front will gradually drop south over the forecast area tonight and become stationary somewhere over WI on Monday. However, due to dry air in the low to mid-levels and no additional forcing mechanism to help the front, confidence is low for anything to develop. With the front dropping south tonight, temperatures will be cooler across the north and warmer across central and east- central WI. Have lows ranging from the low to mid 50s in north- central WI, to the low to mid 60s in central and east-central WI. Temperatures on Monday will be cooler with the front to the south and expected precip.
Radar-derived rainfall estimates for the Florida Keys over the last 48 hours came in at generally 2 to 5 inches, with highest totals mainly in portions of the Lower Keys as well as the Upper Keys. Given this reasoning, elected to nudge measurable rain chances down to around 30% for the remainder of the overnight period, which still may be a bit on the high side of what ends up verifying by tomorrow morning. High pressure building across the North Atlantic, interacting with slow- moving Debby over the Southeast United States, will result in generally light to gentle southerly breezes for much of the work week.
Sincavage (This evening through Monday) The polar jet was situated along the US/Canada border this afternoon with a dome of high pressure firmly situated over the southwestern quadrant of the CONUS. With the slightly increasing height field, we should see a bit warmer conditions tomorrow afternoon. We have seen 100 degree days as late as October 3 and temps +/- 3 degrees of 100F is what we'll expect on Monday--warmer east, cooler west.
If we stay relatively convective debris- free or it decays progressively, this day could be close to heat advisory levels if sfc DPTs make it into the lower to mid 70s and ambient temps in the low to mid 90s. Current feature placement on the ensembles suggest the prime MCS spawning grounds will look to occur acrs southern MN into western WI Monday night just to the lee of a digging short wave(seen now on water vapor imagery riding the ridge acrs ID)and convergent focus along a sfc front.
820 PM EDT Sun Aug 4 2024 Bermuda high pressure to the east maintains an influence through Monday, while Tropical Storm Debby starts making landfall on the Florida Gulf Coast.
Aloft, mid to upper level ridge of high pressure extends across the Western and Central U.
801 PM EDT Sun Aug 4 2024 Bermuda high pressure to the east maintains an influence through Monday, while Tropical Storm Debby starts making landfall on the Florida Gulf Coast.
851 PM CDT Sun Aug 4 2024 Warm and dry conditions persist across the Mid-South this evening as a 1016 mb ridge of high pressure is centered over southern Missouri. Temperatures are mostly in the lower to middle 80s as of 8 PM CDT.
544 PM CDT Sun Aug 4 2024 (Tonight) Little change in the overall pattern is expected across the mid TN Valley tonight, as lingering cloud cover diminishes allowing temps into early Mon to fall predom into the lower/mid 70s.
- Cooler for Monday for most locations with more isolated thunderstorm coverage.
1058 PM EDT Sun Aug 4 2024 Bermuda high pressure to the east maintains an influence through Monday, while Tropical Storm Debby starts making landfall on the Florida Gulf Coast.
543 PM CDT Sun Aug 4 2024 Tonight and tomorrow: Quiet conditions will continue through the short term period with a dry airmass and building high pressure. An upper ridge to the west as well as tropical cyclone Debby to the east will serve to reinforce this pattern. As tropical cyclone Debby approaches the Florida coast tonight, some high clouds stream across the area, especially further south. Tomorrow, upper ridging further builds aloft, perhaps locally enhanced by Debby as it makes landfall in Florida. Temperatures should warm into the upper 90s across the area, while low level moisture from Debby's approach should allow dewpoints to hold in the low to mid 70s.
546 PM CDT Sun Aug 4 2024 (This evening through Monday night) High pressure is building back in full force over the southern plains today and Monday which will leave the panhandles high and dry. Weak southerly winds will do us no favors by slowly moving in warmer air into the region as well.
622 PM CDT Sun Aug 4 2024 (Tonight through Monday night) Mid-level high pressure will remain centered over the Four Corners/Intermountain West region of the U.
Otherwise, mostly clear skies and light winds will allow for temperatures to fall into the lower 70s.
937 PM CDT Sun Aug 4 2024 Mostly clear skies and light winds should prevail for the remainder of tonight across the region as ridging aloft and at the surface build overhead. Overall, a very quiet night is expected across the area with overnight lows generally in the lower to middle 70s. With upper-level ridging aloft, mostly clear skies to prevail. Overnight lows are forecast to fall into the low to mid 70s areawide. Afternoon high temperatures will be slightly warmer, in the mid to upper 90s areawide. On Monday night, stable conditions to persist with overnight lows in the low to mid 70s.
717 PM CDT Sun Aug 4 2024 Broad mid level ridge is now in place over the central and southern Plains this evening.
High pressure will slowly break down with zonal flow taking over through midweek. An upper level trough forms late in the week though confidence is low in the overall pattern.
With a cutoff low meandering southwestward away from us and height rises in its wake, tomorrow is a good bet to be several degrees warmer than today.
846 PM EDT Sun Aug 4 2024 Weak high pressure will build over the area tonight and early Monday.
847 PM MDT Sun Aug 4 2024 An upper-level ridge will remain over the region tonight and into the first part of Monday. Thunderstorms have developed on the periphery of the ridge, just west-northwest of southeast Oregon this evening, ahead of the approaching upper-level trough. There is a much greater potential for organized storms on Monday with the breakdown of the upper-level ridge. The increased dynamic support from the approaching upper-level trough, combined with surface-based CAPE values around 500 J/kg and 0-6 km shear of 30-40 kts, will support the development of a few long-lived storms and storm clusters.
1215 AM CDT Mon Aug 5 2024 (This afternoon through Monday night) WV imagery shows the upper ridge ENE of the Four Corners this afternoon, resulting in northeast flow aloft over West texas and Southeast New Mexico. This is augmented by an inverted trough moving into the area from central Texas, the net result of which will be decreased thicknesses and a "cool" afternoon, with highs averaging only 4-5 F above normal. Inverted troughs tend to oversell precip in these parts, but boundaries do not. Monday, the inverted trough is forecast to be over the Big Bend Area, resulting in a nadir of thicknesses for this forecast. Monday night looks dry on the backside of the trough.
Some light shower activity has developed from Eddy county to just south of Fargo into the Highway 10 corridor, roughly along the 925mb frontogenesis seen on the SPC meso page. Temperatures will also remain cooler than normal thanks to much lower heights. The bulk of guidance keeps the nose of this low level jet south of our area, however this should allow for 500 to at most 850 J/kg of MUCAPE to make it to our area and combine with the aforementioned frontogenesis.
239 AM EDT Mon Aug 5 2024 A dying cold front over the Great Lakes will approach late Monday, then stall out in the vicinity of Pennsylvania Tuesday through the end of the week. Temps running warmer than expected at this hour with m-u 80s still holding on for the SErn half of the area. As surface ridging builds in, we should see the temps cool off, the wind become light and have generally clear skies overnight. Moisture return ahead of the associated cold front, combined with a belt of relatively strong mid level winds, supports the risk of organized strong to severe convection across Northern PA during the afternoon and early evening hours.
(Monday through Tuesday) Stagnant weather will remain in place, as upper-level ridging slowly builds in to our west. However, it looks like the scope of the products may ebb and flow on a daily basis, based on the location of the ridge that day.
1202 AM CDT Mon Aug 5 2024 Broad mid level ridge is now in place over the central and southern Plains this evening.
As the low-level jet becomes stronger late tonight, with have to watch the precip over southwest Minnesota & a few CAMs show a cluster or two of stronger storms and a marginal hail threat developing in response to the increasing instability. Hi-resolution models still exhibit some spread in exactly how far north or south this east-west oriented band will develop, but ensemble guidance has the highest chances for 1-2 inches of rain across east-central Minnesota, through the Twin Cities metro, and into west-central Minnesota. Temperatures will be cool through the day north of the boundary, with daytime temperatures remaining steady in the low to mid 60s. Tuesday is shaping up to be a fantastic day as high pressure moves into the region, bringing clearing skies, cooler temperatures and lower humidity.
(Today) Tranquil weather continues across the Tennessee Valley early this morning, with high pressure firmly in control. The aforementioned ridge of high pressure will keep landfalling Hurricane Debby in the Big Bend of Florida well southeast of the region. The end result will be another hot and rain-free day, with highs returning to the low to mid 90s.
(Today through Tuesday) Upper low is in the process of cutting off from the base of the upper long wave trough. The upper low will move west to the west coast of Mexico. This process will allow the upper trough to lift out leaving Debby stranded over the SE. Once the upper trough lifts out, the high that fills behind will stop its NE motion causing it to slowly move back toward the Atlantic seaboard near Georgia for Tue.
(Today through Tuesday) Throughout the short term period, a mid-to-upper level high pressure extending from the southern West Coast to the southern Plains will continue to dominate Deep South Texas with very warm and dry conditions underneath mostly clear skies. At the surface, a high pressure over the southern Plains and western Gulf of Mexico will keep a light to gentle easterly to southeasterly moist onshore flow.
* Hot today and Tuesday with highs in the low to mid 90s. Sfc and upper ridging across the Ohio Valley will yield a hot and dry start to the work week.
Cooler temperatures are expected tomorrow and rain chances will increase through the week with upper level troughing overhead. Cold front will drop southeast out of Canada today with scattered showers and thunderstorms developing out ahead of it.
- Becoming cooler and less humid this week. Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Troughing evident aloft across the northeastern tier of the CONUS early this morning with 100+ kt jet max nosing into the region from the northwest. At the surface, a slow-moving cold front is now situated across southern Michigan and stretched westward into the Plains. Pattern Synopsis and Forecast: Longwave midlevel troughing draped across the lower half of Canada will slowly push southward and eventually return a cooler/drier air mass to the Great Lakes region.
Looking at the 500mb level, we'll actually see height rises across the region as the dominant upper level ridge over the southern plains builds eastward. High temperatures will rise into the mid 90s across the west, while eastern counties will be "cooler" in the upper 80s and lower 90s due to cloud cover associated with Debby. As Debby slowly meanders toward the Georgia and South Carolina coastlines by Tuesday, the upper ridge to our west will continue to build eastward.
/NEW/ /Through Tuesday Afternoon/ High pressure, currently centered near the Four Corners region, will be extending our way through the next several days.
117 AM CDT Mon Aug 5 2024 Mostly clear skies and light winds should prevail for the remainder of tonight across the region as ridging aloft and at the surface build overhead. Overall, a very quiet night is expected across the area with overnight lows generally in the lower to middle 70s. With upper-level ridging aloft, mostly clear skies to prevail. Overnight lows are forecast to fall into the low to mid 70s areawide. Afternoon high temperatures will be slightly warmer, in the mid to upper 90s areawide. On Monday night, stable conditions to persist with overnight lows in the low to mid 70s.
As we go into tomorrow, the ridge will start building east and surface winds will become more organized from the southeast.
- Dry frontal passage mid-week, with a trend towards cooler temperatures through the weekend.
The high precipitable water values (around 150 percent of normal) will favor rain reaching the ground.
The earlier high cloud cover has largely dissipated, with temperatures along the island chain hovering in the lower to mid 80s. The 00Z Key West sounding sampled a worked over environment, as indicated by the weak lapse rates and relatively drier airmass in the low levels.
Cooler heat index values was owed to a weak frontal passage providing light N and NE winds. On Monday into Tuesday, upper level ridging will expand into the region from the plains, bringing continued hot and dry conditions to AR for many more days to come. Temperatures will begin to rebound, with highs on Monday topping out in the lower to mid 90s, and mid 90s to around 100 degrees on Tuesday.
07Z water vapor imagery showed an upper ridge centered over the four corners region while the main westerlies remained over the northern plains. An area of low pressure was analyzed along the NEB/SD state line with a trough of low pressure extending south through the southern high plains and weak high pressure over southern MO and northern AR. There is good agreement from the operational models on a relatively dry airmass remaining over the central plains within the mean upper ridge with limited dynamics moving across the forecast area. This is expected to promote dry air mixing to the surface and dewpoints falling into the lower 60s and upper 50s resulting in heat index readings marginally warmer than the actual air temperature. With northerly winds bringing some weak cold air advection, highs are forecast to be 10 to 15 degrees cooler for Tuesday.
Temperatures climb back down late this week following a cold front.
(Today through Tuesday) Today will reverse the trend back toward the warmer weather, although there will still be some mid-level moisture and a portion of the weak disturbance aloft over the area to allow for some scattered cumulus, mid, and high clouds, and maybe an isolated brief storm or two out west. The temperatures and heat indices are going to climb again to elevated levels Tuesday, but the temperatures and heat indices should for the most part fall just shy of Heat Advisory criteria while the stronger portion of the upper ridge remains more concentrated over NE TX and northward. That ridge maxima will be drifting our direction, but we see Tuesday being the a more typical hot August day in transition.
(Today and tonight) The upper high currently centered over the Four Corners will begin its eastward extension today. The increase in heights and thicknesses will allow for most areas to see warmer high temps this afternoon than what was experienced yesterday. A surface lee trough will help to keep winds out of the south to southeast.
* Drier and Warmer: Dry, southwest flow will dominate across the west as high pressure expands across the Sierra and western Nevada. Temperatures will be around 3 to 5 degrees above typical August values with highs in the upper 90s to near triple digits for the lower valleys while the Sierra will be in the mid to upper 80s. * Winds and Fire Concerns: With the warmer temperatures, our typical afternoon breezes return each day through the week. Best potential for dry conditions and the higher wind gusts will be across northern Washoe county today and Tuesday afternoons which may impact suppression efforts on the Stockade Canyon Fire.
318 AM EDT Mon Aug 5 2024 A cold front will slowly push across the area today then continue offshore tonight as a weak wave of low pressure tracks along the front.
Areas along and south of I-90 have the greatest potential for damaging winds, given the hot and dry air in the low levels of the atmosphere contributing to DCAPE values exceeding 1000 J/kg. From Monday night into Tuesday morning, an upper-level trough will move into the Pacific Northwest. The upper-level trough will move into eastern Washington by Tuesday afternoon, with convection initiating across western Montana. Temperatures are expected to drop as a Canadian cold front moves over the Divide. North-central Idaho will remain warmer, with highs still reaching the 90s.
Aloft, mid to upper level ridge of high pressure extends across the Western and Central U. 08/DML (Tonight through Tuesday night) A stationary front associated with a weak trough over SW Mississippi will gradually dissipate through Monday morning as troughing consolidates eastward toward the Appalachia Bay- merging with Tropical Storm Debby away from SETX and SWLA into the SECONUS. Meanwhile, an upper level ridge building over the Four Corners region to the west will facilitate broad ridging across the southern plains and western Gulf Coast to include SETX and SWLA.
A cold front will push slowly south across the area Monday night through Tuesday, bringing a chance for showers and thunderstorms. Somewhat cooler temperatures will settle into the region behind the front through mid week. Better chances for overland fog will be located in portions of north-central KY and the lower Scioto Valley. The boundary that this feature rides along will still be draped just north of our CWA, keeping that area somewhat cooler. However, eventually, the entire system is pulled south Tuesday afternoon/ evening as the cold front drops.
/ISSUED 251 PM MDT Sun Aug 4 2024/ Key Points: -Noticeably cooler temperatures expected this week -Showers and thunderstorms are possible across at least part of the area every day this week -Strong thunderstorms are possible across the plains on Tuesday Short term (through Tuesday).
1128 PM CDT Sun Aug 4 2024 Warm and dry conditions persist across the Mid-South this evening as a 1016 mb ridge of high pressure is centered over southern Missouri. Temperatures are mostly in the lower to middle 80s as of 8 PM CDT.
Aloft, ridging dominates over the central CONUS. With dewpoints in the lower 70s, expect heat indices around 100-105 on Monday and Tuesday.
Everywhere else will see northwest flow and building heights to have temperatures still climb into the low 90s. Main threat will be strong winds, but there is potential for large hail as shear looks to be on the high end.
An MCS is favored to be ongoing across WI and into central MI, gradually dropping east-southeast atop a Central/Western US Ridge.
149 AM EDT Mon Aug 5 2024 Bermuda high pressure to the east maintains an influence through Monday, while Tropical Storm Debby starts making landfall on the Florida Gulf Coast.
High pressure will aid warming trend through Tuesday.
329 AM CDT Mon Aug 5 2024 Today and Tonight: Dry through the period with slightly warmer temperatures leading to heat stress concerns again.
The overall synoptic-scale pattern responsible for this toasty summer day is largely influenced by an upper-level thermal ridge out west continuing its propagation further east. Hotter temperatures are forecast for tomorrow as the upper-level ridge stays settled in the vicinity of the forecast area. A cool-off starting on Tuesday is forecast as a cold front currently over the mountainous west will keep moving eastward, providing cold air advection behind it for the region. Places north of I-70 are set to experience temperatures at or even below-normal as the cold front associated with the upper-level low traverses on through from the northwest.
- Daily afternoon showers and thunderstorms on the higher terrain continue throughout the week. A similar setup to yesterday with moisture continuing to wrap into the region around the high pressure centered just to the southeast of the forecast area. As a result, precipitation chances this afternoon will be greatest across the higher terrain south of Interstate 70.
Rising heights associated with a ridge to our west will bring increasing temperatures today and on Tuesday. Highs in the lower to mid 90's are expected today with mid to upper 90's on Tuesday. A front will pass through the area midweek bringing lower dewpoints and cooler temperatures to end the week. The GFS shows a rather potent trough digging into the Great Lakes bringing lower heights across the region and cooler temperatures. The EC has a stronger ridge remaining in place and results in warmer temperatures.
A warm front is located north of us that will eventually pull through as a cold front in the next day or so. Later tonight, another wave is forecast to move just north of the area and start to shift the cold front south into the area overnight. Latest guidance is slightly cooler for today. We would need to see good moisture pooling ahead of this warm front and good heating to get solidly into heat advisory criteria levels.
215 AM MDT Mon Aug 5 2024 KEY MESSAGES: - A disturbance and cold front will push into the area Tuesday afternoon and evening bringing a slight risk for severe weather across the far southwest. A warm front will bring a warm up Monday night into Tuesday with highs spiking to upper 80s and 90s. This will generate enough heat and moisture with surface dewpoints rising into the lower 60s to make for a bit of a muggy day.
916 PM PDT Sun Aug 4 2024 Hot and dry weather will prevail through Monday under high pressure aloft.