Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
more in line with warmer GFS LAMP guidance values which seem to be verifying best. (Today through Thursday night) Dry high pressure will continue to control our wx with another nice day. The center of the high will shift to the east coast today as low pressure begins to form out over the plains causing south winds to increase. Upper levels will feature a broad ridge across the south central and southeast states. This pattern will bring warmer temperatures today with highs around 5 degrees above yesterday. This will occur as the pressure gradient tightens ahead of advancing low pressure from the plains. On Thursday, the low pressure system and an associated cold front will continue to approach.
226 PM EST Wed Feb 21 2024 High pressure is moving off the east coast today with southerly winds bringing in mild air.
The main upper trough along the coast will also come inland and weaken today. The trough will lower temperatures slightly from yesterday.
A quick-moving trough will swing across Arizona today, bringing rain/high-elevation snow showers, isolated thunderstorms, and gusty winds. Cold front across western Arizona and southeastern California into Utah is marked by a band of showers and isolated thunderstorms. This trough will swing through northern Arizona rather fast, but expect precipitation to increase west to east early this morning through the late afternoon hours. Quieter weather will return on Thursday as another ridge builds over the region.
Quieter weather and warming temperatures are on tap for the rest of this week as high pressure builds over the area.
This will be the only visible thing in the sky today, aside from a few contrails and thin cirrus clouds spilling over a broad- topped ridge off to our west - we continue to remain in very dry air. Lows will generally be in the 40s, with some 50s possible west near warmer temperatures spreading north through the Mississippi Valley.
By Thursday, the low pressure system will be slipping by to the north with a sagging cold front to the south moving into the far northern portions of our area. Following afternoon highs in the lower/middle 70s F, 20-30% rain chances will be possible mostly along and north of highway 82 during the evening.
Low level atmospheric moisture will pool ahead of this system allowing for showers to spread northwest to southeast across our area as Thursday progresses, aided by developing broad upper level troughing influences.
149 PM EST Wed Feb 21 2024 Dry weather to continue through Thursday as dry high pressure remains in place across the area.
Dry conditions prevail with high pressure building over the southeast U.
Cooler but seasonal temperatures on Thursday as winds subside.
These winds will gradually subside through tonight into Thursday as the aforementioned high pressure system continues to shift east. Continued warm air advection (WAA) in place through Thursday will allow for another warmer than normal day with daytime high temperatures reaching the 80s across much of Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley.
Drier and warming conditions through the weekend as high pressure builds.
Early afternoon temperatures ranged from the lower 50s across the highest elevations of the NE mountains to the mid 60s in the extreme SW zones. Low temperatures have been on the low side of guidance the past couple of nights. High temperatures will be warm, ranging from near 60 in the highest elevations of the NE mountains to the lower 70s across the S zones. The cold front will enter than NW portion of the area by late Thursday night.
149 PM EST Wed Feb 21 2024 High pressure will maintain seasonable weather through today.
Wind speeds will begin to diminish this evening as the atmosphere decouples and surface wind direction will gain more of a westerly component overnight before a cold front moves through the forecast area tomorrow morning. Downslope westerly winds overnight will hold temperatures over 10 degrees warmer than average with lows ranging from the upper 30s in the far southwest Texas Panhandle to over 50 degrees in the eastern Rolling Plains. Even with clear skies, tomorrow morning's cold front will lead to temperatures about 15 degrees cooler with highs back down into the 60s and low-70s.
316 PM EST Wed Feb 21 2024 High pressure is moving off the east coast today with southerly winds bringing in mild air.
The airmass behind the front is not particularly cold but will likely lead to temperatures 10-15 degrees cooler than today in many locations. Despite temperatures being cooler Thursday, afternoon highs (mid 60s to low 70s) will still be above average for this time of year.
A large mid to upper level ridge continues to progress east across Central America and the southern Plains. The western piece of the barbell low pressure system moving towards Bermuda has likely strengthened the gradient temporarily this morning.
158 PM MST Wed Feb 21 2024 158 PM MST Wed Feb 21 2024 - Dry and mild conditions will persist through the weekend - Potential for elevated fire weather through this weekend Low-amplitude upper ridging covers the southern half of the CONUS, while a trough pushes over the western states. West coast trough will link up with a Canadian low pressure system tonight, and a cool front will sweep through the northern plains.
1232 PM EST Wed Feb 21 2024 High pressure remains centered over the region today with warm temperatures and mostly sunny skies.
814 PM EST Wed Feb 21 2024 Dry weather to continue through Thursday as dry high pressure remains in place across the area.
Clouds will begin to build into the region overnight as moisture increases ahead of a weak cold front that is forecast to move through our area tomorrow night.
553 PM EST Wed Feb 21 2024 Dry high pressure moves off the East Coast tonight.
420 PM EST Wed Feb 21 2024 - Southwesterly winds will gust 20-30 mph on Thursday ahead of a cold front, with showers and possibly a few thunderstorms then arriving along and ahead of the cold front late Thursday and Thursday night.
659 PM EST Wed Feb 21 2024 High pressure is moving off the east coast with southerly winds bringing in mild air.
The upper level ridge overhead will start to break down tonight and tomorrow as a trough axis that originates over California shoots eastward and digs down through the Ohio Valley. At the surface, a cold front extends from Ohio down into our area as it moves southeastward. On the temperature side of things, you can expect things to stay warm as Thursday highs are forecast to reach the low to mid 70s for the majority of the area.
Some patchy freezing fog may develop tonight and early Thursday.
434 PM MST Wed Feb 21 2024 Cooler but seasonal temperatures on Thursday as winds subside.
513 PM CST Wed Feb 21 2024 (This evening through Thursday) Cooler temperatures are in store for Thursday, as a weak cold front moves through the area. The front will move through during the late morning and early afternoon hours, bringing breezy northwest winds and cooler temperatures. Lows tonight will be in the 50s, with highs Thursday ranging from the lower 70s across the Big Country, to the mid and upper 70s over southern portions of the forecast area.
Otherwise, look for overnight lows to drop only to the low 50s in northwest AL and the 40s in northeast AL.
Heading into tomorrow, low to mid levels winds are expected to become more SW ahead of the cold front moving down from the Central/Southern Plains. So, with tonight's lows in the lower to mid 60s. In the wake of the weak cold front, lower dewpoints and light north winds will prevail tomorrow night. Lows should range from the lower 50s for the Brazos Valley across to the Piney Woods.
A quick-moving trough will continue to move east across Arizona this afternoon with rain/high-elevation snow showers, isolated thunderstorms, and gusty winds. A ridge of high pressure will start to build over Arizona on Thursday with dry weather, less wind, and warmer daytime temperatures.
356 PM MST Wed Feb 21 2024 158 PM MST Wed Feb 21 2024 - Dry and mild conditions will persist through the weekend - Potential for elevated fire weather through this weekend Low-amplitude upper ridging covers the southern half of the CONUS, while a trough pushes over the western states. West coast trough will link up with a Canadian low pressure system tonight, and a cool front will sweep through the northern plains.
759 PM EST Wed Feb 21 2024 Southerly winds will develop Thursday bringing warmer air across the Carolinas.
Chilly morning lows in the low to mid 40s across the interior, upper 40s to low 50s at the coast.
941 PM EST Wed Feb 21 2024 Dry high pressure moves off the East Coast tonight.
As of 2 pm, the highest gusts have been mostly confined to Cochise county, with the exception of some higher gusts in the mountains.
Made some updates to include some areas of dense freezing fog glancing our NE and E zones tonight.
As it does so, a cold front will drop south across the Plains this evening, turning winds from westerly to northerly. Flow across the Plains will remain northerly, with cooler air working into the Plains. Highs will be around 15 degrees cooler, with 40s to 50s on the Plains, and 40s across the San Luis Valley. Even with the warmer temperatures in the 40s across El Paso County, the heavier snow showers may produce brief periods of reduced visibility and very minor and localized accumulations.
With these winds becoming much weaker, have gone ahead and cancelled the High Wind Warning and Wind Advisory early. (This afternoon through Thursday night) Current analysis shows the upper low is moving east a little slower than previously expected, thus stronger westerly winds associated with the low have not yet arrived. A pacific cold front moves through the area tonight and early tomorrow. Winds throughout the day tomorrow will gradually veer around from the north as high pressure builds in behind the front.
657 PM EST Wed Feb 21 2024 Dry high pressure moves off the East Coast tonight.
We are still expecting milder temperatures tonight with the SRLY flow as the ridge weakens. This will be the only visible thing in the sky today, aside from a few contrails and thin cirrus clouds spilling over a broad- topped ridge off to our west - we continue to remain in very dry air. Lows will generally be in the 40s, with some 50s possible west near warmer temperatures spreading north through the Mississippi Valley.
Drier air mass tonight will allow overnight lows to drop into the low to mid 40s across the area.
A ridge of high pressure will start to build over Arizona on Thursday with dry weather, less wind, and warmer daytime temperatures.
- A backdoor cold front arrives Thursday night into Friday morning.
A weak cold front will move through the forecast area during the afternoon and evening hours Thursday.
1234 AM EST Thu Feb 22 2024 Dry high pressure moves off the East Coast tonight. A cold front approaches on Thursday and increase rain chances Thursday night through Friday morning. Shouldn't dip much cooler with WAA occurring, but went ahead and adjusted hourly temps. Weak high pressure still extends down the east coast from around Nova Scotia and light southwest winds continue. Highs will surge to a solid 2 categories above normal, in the low to mid 60s outside the mountains.
These winds will gradually subside through tonight into Thursday as the aforementioned high pressure system continues to shift east. Continued warm air advection (WAA) in place through Thursday will allow for another warmer than normal day with daytime high temperatures reaching the 80s across much of Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley. A cold frontal boundary will be pushing through the area Thursday evening into Friday. This will result in a cooler night than tonight with lows dropping into the 50s across much of the region.
1206 AM EST Thu Feb 22 2024 Southerly winds will develop today bringing warmer air across the Carolinas. Showers are expected Friday as a cold front sweeps across the area.
By Thursday, the low pressure system will be slipping by to the north with a sagging cold front to the south moving into the far northern portions of our area. Following afternoon highs in the lower/middle 70s F, 20-30% rain chances will be possible mostly along and north of highway 82 during the evening. Following the front, a cool north wind will result in Friday highs about 10 degrees cooler than on Thursday, landing in the 60s F.
1051 PM CST Wed Feb 21 2024 (This evening through Thursday) Cooler temperatures are in store for Thursday, as a weak cold front moves through the area. The front will move through during the late morning and early afternoon hours, bringing breezy northwest winds and cooler temperatures. Lows tonight will be in the 50s, with highs Thursday ranging from the lower 70s across the Big Country, to the mid and upper 70s over southern portions of the forecast area.
The cold front will push through behind the aforementioned showers and storms, with up to 10-12 kt northwesterly surface winds during the daylight hours on Friday. Afternoon highs will be in the 60s across the area, while dwpts will fall into the low 40s to upper 30s by Friday evening.
353 AM EST Thu Feb 22 2024 Warmer today as southerly winds increase ahead of a Friday cold front.
a cold front will drop SE through the state. Lows the next 2 nights will be much cooler.
Despite the clear skies, wind speeds are just such along with a slight east of north trajectory, that temperatures are slow to fall with current readings in the lower to mid 60s.
Currently - Cool post cold front conditions continue across the Keys due to persistent light to gentle northerly breezes. These winds are being driven by a pressure ridge extending down the Atlantic Coast and into the Gulf of Mexico. High pressure reaching down the Atlantic Coast and into the Gulf of Mexico will shift slightly eastward through the overnight period. As the high shifts, winds will tend to veer.
As it does so, a cold front will drop south across the Plains this evening, turning winds from westerly to northerly. Flow across the Plains will remain northerly, with cooler air working into the Plains. Highs will be around 15 degrees cooler, with 40s to 50s on the Plains, and 40s across the San Luis Valley. Even with the warmer temperatures in the 40s across El Paso County, the heavier snow showers may produce brief periods of reduced visibility and very minor and localized accumulations. High temperatures will remain in the high-40s and 50s on Friday, but the weekend will see considerable warming.
217 AM CST Thu Feb 22 2024 - Breezy and "cooler" today.
- Incoming cold front may (30% chance) create less than a half- inch of snowfall in the Arrowhead Thursday evening, while the South Shore may (40% chance) see less than 1 inch through Friday morning.
LL flow will become more SW today ahead of an approaching cold front. But much of the global guidance is only a little warmer in the low/mid 70s. This yields afternoon high temperatures ranging from the low/mid 80s across the Brazos Valley to around 80 in Houston and low/mid 70s at the coast. Increased coupling could boost temperatures several degrees warmer than forecast while a more resilient decoupling could keep temps several degrees cooler. It's usually a better bet to go warmer in these pre-FROPA WAA scenarios which is why we are forecasting temps to be on the toasty side.
Temperatures have stayed mild overnight thanks to increasing south breezes between departing high pressure along the east coast and an approaching cold front extending from the Great Lakes to the Mid Ms Valley. As the cold front moves closer to our area, shower and isolated thunderstorm chances will increase this afternoon, especially over the northwest half of Middle Tennessee after 4 PM. Highs today will not be as warm as yesterday, but still above normal, in the lower to mid 60s.
West-northwesterly winds have shunted the low level thermal ridge away and 850mb temperatures will be 5-8 C cooler than yesterday.
1027 PM MST Wed Feb 21 2024 Cooler but seasonal temperatures on Thursday as winds subside.
(Today through Friday) High pressure to our south centered over southern Mexico will remain quasi-stationary with a quasi-zonal mid-level flow over South Texas through the next several days. A cold front is expected to move southeastward through our CWA this afternoon and moving offshore late tonight. Temperatures: Today will be a few degrees warmer with highs topping out in the low to upper 80s this afternoon then tomorrow will be around 5-10 degrees cooler behind the front.
High pressure will hold over the waters for the next couple of days with pleasant weather expected. The trailing edge of a weak cold front moves through the eastern gulf waters on Friday producing a chance of showers and a stray thunderstorm.
Slight chances for freezing rain to be mixed into these showers is possible for the Catskills and Poconos.
This is part of a broad, large circulation associated with upper level low pressure centered around Hudson Bay. The first of these waves and associated cold fronts moves through tonight. The airmass behind tonight's cold front will remain mostly Pacific in nature. and while it will be a few degrees cooler Thursday it will still be above normal. Ridging across the Rockies breaks down this weekend.
322 AM MST Thu Feb 22 2024 High pressure will build back over the region over the next few days allowing temperatures to warm up quickly with highs topping eighty degrees across the lower deserts this weekend. This rise in heights will be a reaction to a large upper low that will dig southward well off the West Coast through Friday and then become stationary through the weekend.
208 AM MST Thu Feb 22 2024 - Except for light intermittent snow showers over the western WY mountains, quiet, mild weather is expected through the weekend thanks to a building ridge.
High pressure dominates weather conditions keeping mostly clear skies and very dry air over the area today. The aforementioned high pressure gives in to a broad upper level trough and associated cold front on Friday. As of right now, the highest chances lay along the Nature Coast through the day, however, the system seems to run out of fuel into the evening hours with model guidance keeping most of the U/L support north of the state. Issued at 420 AM EST EST Thu Feb 22 2024 Going into the weekend, high pressure begins to build back into the Peninsula pushing cold and dry conditions into the area.
537 AM CST Thu Feb 22 2024 (Today through Friday) High pressure to our south centered over southern Mexico will remain quasi-stationary with a quasi-zonal mid-level flow over South Texas through the next several days. A cold front is expected to move southeastward through our CWA this afternoon and moving offshore late tonight. Temperatures: Today will be a few degrees warmer with highs topping out in the low to upper 80s this afternoon then tomorrow will be around 5-10 degrees cooler behind the front.
- Slightly cooler yet well above average temperatures are expected today.
Clear skies over the Valley early this morning with morning lows in the low 40s.
Deep moisture will gradually increase across our CWA leading to an increase in cloud cover and rain chances along and ahead of the approaching cold front. Model consensus has the cold front moving into our northwest most zones early this evening and exiting our southeast most zones by sunrise Friday. As the cold front moves northeast today the gusty wind will increase with gusts of 30 to 40mph until diminishing by early evening. Despite the moisture increase today, low chances for showers will be confined to the northern zones until this evening as the cold front begins moving across the area.
As upper trof axis shifts over and then east of the area, expect most of the sctrd shower activity to move out of the area by late morning.
A weak and dirty ridge of high pressure will hover over the region through Friday.
Associated cold front moves through our area today with breezy northwesterly winds and clearing skies filling in behind it. Regardless, any precip should exit to the south and east by this evening with drier and cooler conditions expected thereafter. Highs this afternoon will be cooler than the record-breaking temps observed yesterday.
517 AM CST Thu Feb 22 2024 A weak cold front will bring a chance for showers and thunderstorms to the area today.
(Today through Friday night) Model agreement is still on track for a weak cold frontal passage to move through during the early morning hours of today, While this front will be severely lacking in moisture, there should be just enough present to help RH values recovery and keep fire weather concerns at bay for the rest of the work week. Meanwhile, overnight low temperatures will cool with many locations near freezing by the time the sun rises Friday morning.
214 AM PST Thu Feb 22 2024 A drier and warmer weather pattern starts today and continues through the weekend.
High pressure builds and diminishes showers today, bringing mild and dry conditions through Friday.
High pressure will build back over the region over the next few days allowing temperatures to warm up quickly with highs topping eighty degrees across the lower deserts this weekend. This rise in heights will be a reaction to a large upper low that will dig southward well off the West Coast through Friday and then become stationary through the weekend.
524 AM CST Thu Feb 22 2024 (Thursday through Friday) Low clouds will continue to be on the increase across the region this morning ahead of an approaching trough and cold front. Behind the front, northwesterly flow will bring in a noticeably cooler and less humid airmass into the region on Friday, with highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s.
A weak cold front will bring a chance for showers and thunderstorms to the area today.
Freezing fog will gradually dissipate after sunrise across valleys mainly in northeastern Nevada. Otherwise, dry conditions with warming temperatures are expected through the weekend as a high pressure ridge takes hold over the region.
526 AM CST Thu Feb 22 2024 (Today and tonight) A cold front will be pushing through our area this morning producing gusty north winds at 25-30 mph through the afternoon hours. We'll see about a 10-15 degree cooldown from the milder cooler air with this "Pacific" system with afternoon highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s southward under sunny skies. Temperatures will still remain nearly 15 degrees warmer than average climatically for late February. Slightly cooler temperatures for tonight with northern Oklahoma falling into the 30s to near freezing across northwest Oklahoma with lows near 40 degrees across our remaining areas. Wind speeds at 5-10 mph will make it feel slightly cooler everywhere.
Low pressure will drop into the Dakotas today with tightening pressure gradient over Montana.
535 AM CST Thu Feb 22 2024 - Breezy and "cooler" today.
513 AM CST Thu Feb 22 2024 (Today through Friday night) Model agreement is still on track for a weak cold frontal passage to move through during the early morning hours of today, While this front will be severely lacking in moisture, there should be just enough present to help RH values recovery and keep fire weather concerns at bay for the rest of the work week. Meanwhile, overnight low temperatures will cool with many locations near freezing by the time the sun rises Friday morning.
600 AM EST Thu Feb 22 2024 Warmer conditions are expected today as southerly winds increase ahead of a Friday cold front.
(Today and tonight) A cold front will be pushing through our area this morning producing gusty north winds at 25-30 mph through the afternoon hours. We'll see about a 10-15 degree cooldown from the milder cooler air with this "Pacific" system with afternoon highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s southward under sunny skies. Temperatures will still remain nearly 15 degrees warmer than average climatically for late February. Slightly cooler temperatures for tonight with northern Oklahoma falling into the 30s to near freezing across northwest Oklahoma with lows near 40 degrees across our remaining areas. Wind speeds at 5-10 mph will make it feel slightly cooler everywhere.