Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
646 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 (Tonight through Friday night) A broad upper-level ridge across the southern US will remain the dominant feature through the short term period. The ridge will gradually build north along the Rocky Mountains as an upper-level trough moves across the Midwest.
/OAJ/ Our area remains on the eastern periphery of an upper ridge centered over Texas and should be the primary influence in the near term. Dewpoints could be even higher tomorrow, in the upper 70s, with moisture pooling ahead of cold front which should push south later tomorrow.
753 PM EDT Thu Aug 15 2024 High pressure will be over the area through Friday allowing for dry weather and slightly cooler temperatures. As a cold front approaches the Southeast US this weekend, moisture and rain chances return. - Showers and thunderstorm chances return for the weekend as a cold front approaches. High pressure and upper ridging remain in control of our weather on Friday. Temperatures are forecast to be a couple degrees warmer but still at or below seasonal values for mid-August.
745 PM EDT Thu Aug 15 2024 High pressure will persist over the Carolinas today then shift offshore by late Friday.
454 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 (Tonight through midday Friday) The forecast for Northern AL and Srn Middle TN hasn't changed much in the past 24hrs; we still have a stalled sfc frontal boundary draped from the ArkLaMiss SE into the Nrn GOMEX, with high pressure in control aloft across the area. This ridge will set the stage for the change in pattern expected for our area as it retrogrades W, allowing our area to be in more NW flow.
As an upper level trough moves into the area from the Pacific Northwest this afternoon and evening, a few showers and thunderstorms have begun to develop, mostly over the higher terrain. Expect these showers and thunderstorms to gradually grow and become detached from the higher terrain by mid to late afternoon, especially south and west of a line from Cut Bank to Great Falls to White Sulphur Springs.
This activity is out ahead of a cold front which extends from northeast Missouri back through southeast Kansas and central Oklahoma. 00Z upper air analysis shows an upper-level ridge still in place across the Mid-South. The 00Z NAM is suggesting minimal convective potential if any overnight due to the very warm mid-level temperatures and ridging present across the area.
(This afternoon through Friday) One more day of typical summer cu field before we start to see things change as a front approaches and a deep trof sets up over the eastern half of the US. By late Friday, mid level ridge begins to set up across TX panhandle putting the Ohio Valley and SE on the NW flow side of the ridge.
RW (This afternoon through Friday) One more day of typical summer cu field before we start to see things change as a front approaches and a deep trof sets up over the eastern half of the US. By late Friday, mid level ridge begins to set up across TX panhandle putting the Ohio Valley and SE on the NW flow side of the ridge.
Currently - A loose pressure field spans the Keys area this evening due to the combination of a ridge along the Atlantic Coast and Hurricane Ernesto centered northeast of the Bahamas. The weak flow should let temperatures drift down into the lower 80s while dew points will remain in the mid to upper 70s.
The 15/12z 500 mb upper air plot showed the sub-tropical ridge over the southern tier of states with one upper high centered over SW AZ and a second one central Texas.
616 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 (This evening through Friday) Hot and dry weather will persist, as the upper level ridge continues to build across West Texas. (Friday night through next Thursday) High pressure will remain across the region through the next 7 days.
132 AM EDT Fri Aug 16 2024 High pressure will persist over the Carolinas today then shift offshore late today and tonight. A cold front will approach the region from the west on Saturday. Quiet weather continues tonight as upper level trough proceeds to shift offshore. Otherwise, overnight lows will be a few degrees below climo ranging in the 60s with a few cooler spots getting down into the upper 50s again.
(Today through Saturday afternoon) Mid level ridging will strengthen over the area today allowing for increasing subsidence.
A rinse and repeat forecast is on tap today and Saturday as a cold front stalls over Missouri.
An isolated storm is still possible this afternoon across the central mountains as a departing low pressure system interacts with some lingering moisture.
Lows tonight in the Valley are expected to reach the low to mid 60s, so areas away from the Delta still have a ways to go. Today, an upper trough begins to build off the coast of Oregon, very demure, very mindful. The real cool-down occurs Saturday as the trough continues to deepen without shifting eastward much at all.
(Today and tonight) Eastward expansion of the upper ridge over the southwestern CONUS will continue today with gradual but still relatively subtle height rises expected through the next 24 hours. Coverage is still not entirely certain given the eastward expansion of the broader ridging aloft, but given a consistent signal in hi-res guidance have added mentionable PoPs across the far southern TX Panhandle this afternoon and evening with dry conditions favored further south.
Temperatures trend warmer before a cooling back down this weekend. The inversion is clear tonight as the higher elevations are warmer than the lower elevations. The persistent upper low over the Maritimes is finally beginning to reduce its influence on our weather, though we do remain in northerly flow on its western periphery. Upper level ridging will push east overnight. While some high clouds will spilling in east of the ridge axis, they will mostly stay west of the area through dawn, allowing for valley fog to develop once again. The upper level ridge will remain in control for Friday, with southwesterly flow pushing temperatures well into the 80s. 450 AM Update: Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to continue Saturday night as the trough continues to track eastward.
For Friday and Saturday, the upper level ridge will retrograde some to the west opening up a weakness aloft where a short wave dropping down from the Northern Plains will be able to move into.
130 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 Our area remains on the eastern periphery of an upper ridge centered over Texas and should be the primary influence in the near term. Dewpoints could be even higher tomorrow, in the upper 70s, with moisture pooling ahead of cold front which should push south later tomorrow.
(Today and tonight) Dangerous heat will continue today as the Southern Plains remains on the eastern periphery of a 596 dam mid-level ridge. Currently, it appears northeast Oklahoma has the highest probability of being impacted by the complex with north central into east central Oklahoma potentially being on the western periphery.
(Today through Saturday night) Heights continue to rise over the area today as the center of the upper level ridge continues to build in. Highs this afternoon should be warmer than previous days across the board for most places in the combined Panhandles. Storm initiation should begin in eastern New Mexico and travel southeast across the High Plains. Tomorrow, since the upper high is not forecast to be directly on top of our area, isolated thunderstorms will be possible again during the afternoon and evening timeframe.
Breezes will remain variable as the presence of Hurricane Ernesto, curving back into the Atlantic, and an upper level trough over the Great lakes will keep the subtropical ridge weak across Florida. PoPs were kept in the 40s to reflect the lower chance of showers, but the weak boundary is moving into a region of very moist, unstable air.
The NBM dewpoints today are on the high side of the guidance envelope, but that worked out well yesterday, so will run with those higher numbers today. The cold front will not move through the region until Saturday night, so with temperatures in the lower 90s and dewpoints in the lower 70s, at least scattered convection is expected to develop in the afternoon.
1236 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 (Tonight through Friday night) A broad upper-level ridge across the southern US will remain the dominant feature through the short term period. The ridge will gradually build north along the Rocky Mountains as an upper-level trough moves across the Midwest.
High pressure at the surface will continue to prevail, and with the center of the high pressure located to the east of the area, SE flow will continue to pull in moisture from the Gulf of Mexico. This increase in moisture combined with temperatures a touch warmer than yesterday's temperatures will result in another day of heat indices in the 107-112F range.
This is due to ridging aloft that will persist through Saturday, keeping southerly winds below 10 mph and dew points in the muggy 70s. Otherwise, a slowly approaching frontal boundary will boost compressional heating and temperature maximums into the lower 100s today and tomorrow which, in combination with high dew points, will continue Excessive Heat Warning conditions across more of the area.
) and stacked ridging across the SE US will squash convection across the area into Saturday. Upper trough over the Great Lakes digs southward driving another cold front into the southeastern states Saturday night. Developing south-southwesterly flow in advance of the approaching cold front will begin to advect moisture back into our area resulting in overnight lows Saturday night rising back into the low to mid 70s.
239 AM MDT Fri Aug 16 2024 - Critical fire weather conditions expected this afternoon and possibly Saturday as high pressure builds over central Wyoming.
- Breezy conditions from tonight through this weekend across southern Wisconsin behind a cold front.
Today in general: A front will be stalled across the area, resulting in highs ranging from the low 90s NE to the upper 90s SW.
159 AM EDT Fri Aug 16 2024 High pressure will drift off the East Coast Friday as a cold front approaches from the northwest this weekend, bringing better coverage of showers and thunderstorms. In this pattern, an upper ridge axis will make slow eastward progress, moving overhead during the day, thus allowing upstream moisture and convection to make a run for our borders.
946 PM MDT Thu Aug 15 2024 - Fire weather concerns begin to increase Friday as well as Saturday with warmer temperatures and low afternoon humidity.
The shear axis over the ridge and along the trough has expanded/translated eastward and generally out of area for decent convective coverage.
Persistent onshore flow and zonal flow aloft led to a cooler than average day around the Bay Area and Central Coast. The low clouds/fog already hugging the coast will inch their way inland tonight. In addition to fog, enough moisture in the low levels maybe squeezed out in the form of patchy drizzle.
(Today through Saturday) Key Messages: - Elevated Heat Indices for Today and Tomorrow - Mostly rain-free conditions As the continuing trend as been for the last several days, the mid- level ridge continues to be the dominate force for the weather over Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley. Moving on to the low temperatures for tonight, those are expected to be mostly in the 70s with a few places in the 80s.
Farther inland highs will be seasonal in the low 90s.
(Today and tonight) Hot and dry conditions will continue as the upper-level ridge remains steadfast across West Central Texas and begins to strengthen.
640 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 A rinse and repeat forecast is on tap today and Saturday as a cold front stalls over Missouri.
The 12Z sounding from this mornings balloon launch shows these light winds are persistent through the lower levels with a 0-10km mean wind speed of approximately 2 to 3 mph. Both the sounding and satellite derived products show that the bulk of this moisture is in the lower and lower-middle levels, so we will see how much moisture we can work through this morning. From synopsis, the duo of Hurricane Ernesto, located north of Puerto Rico and moving north, and a trough building over the Great Lakes will weaken the pressure gradient across the Florida Keys through the weekend.
713 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 Today and Tonight: A moist tropical air mass remains in place across the Lower Mississippi River Valley today, with analyzed PW values of 1. Warm advection is ongoing south of the front, helping to bring the heat from the Southwest ridge toward our forecast area. /NF/ By Saturday, deep layer ridging will continue to prevail over the Southern Plains/Lower Miss Valley region as a strong midlevel high pressure spins over the Rockies into the Southern Plains. The highest potential for "Significant" to "Extreme" heat stress are expected along and west of the I-55 corridor.
647 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 (Today through Saturday night) Heights continue to rise over the area today as the center of the upper level ridge continues to build in. Highs this afternoon should be warmer than previous days across the board for most places in the combined Panhandles. Storm initiation should begin in eastern New Mexico and travel southeast across the High Plains. Tomorrow, since the upper high is not forecast to be directly on top of our area, isolated thunderstorms will be possible again during the afternoon and evening timeframe.
615 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 (Today and tonight) Hot and dry conditions will continue as the upper-level ridge remains steadfast across West Central Texas and begins to strengthen.
415 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 Today and Tonight: A moist tropical air mass remains in place across the Lower Mississippi River Valley today, with analyzed PW values of 1. Warm advection is ongoing south of the front, helping to bring the heat from the Southwest ridge toward our forecast area. /NF/ By Saturday, deep layer ridging will continue to prevail over the Southern Plains/Lower Miss Valley region as a strong midlevel high pressure spins over the Rockies into the Southern Plains. The highest potential for "Significant" to "Extreme" heat stress are expected along and west of the I-55 corridor.
938 AM EDT Fri Aug 16 2024 A slightly cooler morning today as the area is under the influence of weak northeasterly flow behind a weak frontal boundary. Steering flow remains very light, and coupled with elevated PWATs, localized flooding will be the highest risk within any convective activity today.
Quiet conditions today as drier air begins to filter in behind the cold front that moved through last night.
526 AM MDT Fri Aug 16 2024 - Critical fire weather conditions expected this afternoon and possibly Saturday as high pressure builds over central Wyoming.
An upper level trough will continue to bring below normal temperatures to the inland areas through the weekend. Inland, high temperatures will be slightly warmer today than yesterday with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s. Tonight and into tomorrow, an upper level low is anticipated to approach the coast and will likely bring some rain to the northern counties of Northwest California.
High pressure remains elongated over much of the southern US today, gradually meandering it's way eastward.
628 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 (Today and tonight) Eastward expansion of the upper ridge over the southwestern CONUS will continue today with gradual but still relatively subtle height rises expected through the next 24 hours. Coverage is still not entirely certain given the eastward expansion of the broader ridging aloft, but given a consistent signal in hi-res guidance have added mentionable PoPs across the far southern TX Panhandle this afternoon and evening with dry conditions favored further south.
558 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 (Today through Saturday afternoon) Mid level ridging will strengthen over the area today allowing for increasing subsidence.
226 PM EDT Fri Aug 16 2024 A cold front will move through the area over the weekend, bringing scattered showers and thunderstorms. As of 120 PM EDT Friday: A mid level trough will extend from the Great Lakes states south into the Southeastern states for the short range period.
Upper ridging has built into the northern Great Plains, into central Canada, extending from an upper level high pressure sitting firmly across the New Mexico region. Otherwise the rest of Saturday is expected to be dry as an upper ridge axis sets up over the region.
A building upper level high pressure system will continue the heat and dryness into tomorrow and another Heat Advisory has been issued for the northeastern Permian Basin and western Low Rolling plains.
(Tonight through Saturday night) The mid-level ridge remains anchored over West Texas through Saturday night, maintaining seasonal mid-August weather with highs in the upper 90s to low 100s.
1233 PM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 (Today and tonight) Eastward expansion of the upper ridge over the southwestern CONUS will continue today with gradual but still relatively subtle height rises expected through the next 24 hours. Coverage is still not entirely certain given the eastward expansion of the broader ridging aloft, but given a consistent signal in hi-res guidance have added mentionable PoPs across the far southern TX Panhandle this afternoon and evening with dry conditions favored further south.
- Showers likely with scattered storms for Sat as a cold front moves through S WI.
Highs this afternoon will range from the upper 80s north to the low to mid 90s south.
255 PM MDT Fri Aug 16 2024 - Drier and warmer weather is expected today.
Onshore upper flow is aiding in keep temperatures down to near normal as an upper low off the Alaska Panhandle sinks south along the Pacific Northwest coast line over the next few days dominating the weather pattern for the weekend and week ahead. The aforementioned upper low continues to sink south on Saturday down to the southwest Oregon coast turning the flow more southwest across the Golden State.
1220 PM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 (Today through Saturday) Key Messages: - Elevated Heat Indices for Today and Tomorrow - Mostly rain-free conditions As the continuing trend as been for the last several days, the mid- level ridge continues to be the dominate force for the weather over Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley. Moving on to the low temperatures for tonight, those are expected to be mostly in the 70s with a few places in the 80s.
TODAY-TONIGHT: At 1pm, temps in the mid 80s and dewpoints in the low 70s were observed across central Illinois, with west winds around 10-15 mph.
As the low center slowly meanders to the east-southeast, we should see areas of showers going the same direction. The progression of this low has slowed however, which means that PoPs are lingering across portions of the Northland longer than previously forecasted.
Thunderstorm chances will mainly be limited to the mountains with only few to isolated coverage in the lowlands. Subtropical area of high pressure has found its home across the Desert Southwest. The high is centered over NM today but will gradually migrate to the northeast, while expanding.
(Tonight) Active afternoon of weather is on tap for the Tennessee Valley as a cold front approaches the area from the north and west. Good heating this morning has warmed temperatures into the low to mid 90s as of 18z and they will continue to climb another 2-4 degrees this afternoon.
This minor surge of Gulf of California moisture will continue to spread northward into the lower deserts and up the Colorado River basin through the evening and overnight hours. However, spread regarding the exact location of the ridge axis grows as the week progresses.
1256 PM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 (Today through Saturday afternoon) Mid level ridging will strengthen over the area today allowing for increasing subsidence.
(This evening through Saturday) The upper ridge has been slowly meandering eastward this morning and expected to be centered over New Mexico by this afternoon. The upper ridge will continue to move northeast into northeastern New Mexico.
JPR A rinse and repeat forecast is on tap today and Saturday as a cold front stalls over Missouri.
A 500 mb ridge will then dominate our weather for much of Saturday and Saturday night with dry conditions and mostly clear skies Saturday and partly cloudy skies Saturday night. Low temperatures will generally be in the 50s and 60s tonight and Saturday night, with Saturday night the warmer night. For temperatures, highs are forecast in the upper 80s and 90s across the lower elevations.
An Upper level ridge begins to develop across the southwest CONUS and expand into the High Plains by mid-week.
Upper level ridging centered over southern NM has strengthened slightly. The ridge is expected to shift northward through tomorrow, but will continue to remain in control of our weather locally.
As our resident low pressure system circulates northward into Canada, the wrap-around flow has kicked off thunderstorms across northwest Montana early this afternoon. Saturday will be mostly dry and much warmer across the Northern Rockies as high pressure redevelops.
1235 PM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 (Today and tonight) Hot and dry conditions will continue as the upper-level ridge remains steadfast across West Central Texas and begins to strengthen.
(Tonight through Saturday night) The large and dominant subtropical ridge over NM and much of TX remains anchored near the TX/NM border but maintains an E-W secondary ridge axis that sends higher pressure aloft eastward over the Red River Valley. Some amplification of the broader ridge is expected to surge north along the Rockies over the next day, and this should lead to a downtrend on surface wind speeds that have been recently useful to aid in mixing and the lowering of afternoon dewpoints. However, once the first advisory for this upcoming heat wave goes out, it will likely be followed by multiple extensions as that secondary upper ridge axis drifts slowly south into Central TX over the weekend.
Upper level ridging centered over southern NM has strengthened slightly. The ridge is expected to shift northward through tomorrow, but will continue to remain in control of our weather locally. (Saturday night through next Friday) High pressure will remain across the region through the next 7 days.
(Tonight through Saturday night) Key Messages: - High chance for another Heat Advisory tomorrow across the Coastal Plains, Victoria Crossroads and the Brush Country Not to continue beating a dead horse, but hot conditions will continue through Saturday as upper level ridging holds firm.
Moist cyclonic flow around this low has resulted in the widespread showers we are seeing on radar this afternoon. We will continue to see batches of cloud cover rotate around the low through the night, which could result in the stray shower occurring, but for the most part we are expecting dry conditions. First, the low will be farther east, which means the shower threat will only cover eastern MN and western WI.
The main concern with this approaching trough will be increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms this PM, especially for areas north of Interstate 80. Calmer conditions are expected tonight once any lingering showers and storms diminish, but the aforementioned upper low will slowly slide southeastward toward Lake Michigan Saturday, leading to increasing clouds tonight and more chances of showers and storms on Saturday. With the closer proximity of the upper low, there is a low potential for funnel cloud development from some of the showers. Temperatures are looking pretty seasonal overall tonight and Saturday, with highs Saturday in the upper 70s to lower 80s and tonight's lows in the lower to middle 60s.
1114 AM MDT Fri Aug 16 2024 - Critical fire weather conditions expected this afternoon and possibly Saturday as high pressure builds over central Wyoming.
Steering flow remains very light, and coupled with elevated PWATs, localized flooding will be the highest risk within any convective activity today.
216 PM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 Dangerous heat remains the primary concern in the near term as our area remains on the eastern periphery of an upper ridge centered over Texas.