Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
458 AM EDT Wed Jul 24 2024 - Scattered showers and thunderstorms Wednesday ahead of and along a southerly moving cold front. - Warmer, drier weather is anticipated late week through the weekend with highs in the mid to upper 80s. A cold front from west to east draped over central IA, northern IL, and into southern MI will slowly move southward today across the CWA. Temperatures should slightly decrease behind the front with the cooler airmass moving in from behind the boundary. Ridging builds eastward into the area from the central CONUS and brings a return to dry weather conditions and a slight warming trend from Thursday through the weekend. Highs in the lower 80s (upper 70s on Thursday) for the area this weekend.
Discussion: Upper trough to our northwest and upper ridge to our east, forcing a seasonably slightly above normal southwest flow aloft. The deep moisture and clouds are also blocking a lot of sunshine, so the trend towards relatively mild afternoon temperatures for late July should continue today.
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: High pressure and upper level ridge will peak over the area today. Highs will again be above 100 for highs in most areas on Thursday with the highest temperatures in the east. The ridge moves to the east tonight turning the flow aloft to the SW. By Thursday afternoon, an upper level low will start moving inland from the Pacific. The low will track east just north of the Canadian border and will move the ridge to the east.
629 AM CDT Wed Jul 24 2024 (Today through Thursday) A mid- to upper-level trough will continue to deepen and move farther south into South Texas today and tomorrow, accompanied by a weak stationary boundary that will drift just north of the area. The coverage will largely depend on the position of the trough. Temperatures will be moderated by extensive cloud cover and rainfall, with highs in the mid 80s to low 90s and overnight lows in the low to mid 70s for both today and tomorrow.
An upper-level trough axis dips southwestward from the Great Lakes toward East Texas, with the right entrance region of the associated jet stream situated over the Lower Mississippi River Valley region. Deep tropical moisture remains pooled east of the trough, and the added lift and flow aloft will support waves or rain through the period.
This will be followed by a drying trend through the weekend as a low pressure system moving inland along the West Coast brings drier southwest flow aloft.
Also, warmer temperatures today with highs in the mid 90s across the Big Country and Concho Valley.
Still given high moisture content and frontal convergence, downburst winds are possible mainly east of the Blue Ridge this afternoon. Stationary front may drift slightly east as 5h trough moves east as well, but could be we have more coverage into Thursday morning, especially south of U. Thursday, we finally get a push east/southeast with the 5h trough with another front pushing in from the northwest by late in the day. Temperatures will still run above normal for lows and close to normal for highs today, with mid 70s to around 80 west to mid to upper 80s, then slightly cooler Thursday with more clouds with 70s in the mountains to lower to mid 80s east. Thursday night, front should reach the NC/VA border, then slow down as it encounters a stronger 5h ridge over the southeast.
631 AM EDT Wed Jul 24 2024 A cold front will sag south into the middle Ohio Valley today bringing a chance for thunderstorms.
632 AM CDT Wed Jul 24 2024 (Today through Thursday afternoon) Upper level ridge strengthens a bit for today decreasing cloud cover and shower coverage over the area even more compared to yesterday.
617 AM CDT Wed Jul 24 2024 (Today and tonight) Upper level high pressure will remain anchored near Las Vegas, Nevada, with a trough extending from the western Great Lakes to the Lone Star state. Today's high temperatures will be warmer, especially on the Caprock where heights will increase the most with 24-hr change around +5 degrees there and closer to +2 degrees east of the escarpment.
For now, PoPs look to stay confined to the Srn half of the FA on Thurs, and aftn high temps reflect this, w/ locally cooler readings in the low 80s, while Nrn AR wl be creeping towards the low 90s.
Upper energy in the western Great Lakes will approach through the day and a pre frontal low level trough will be the focus for showers and thunderstorms today. Highs Thursday around 80 to mid 80s and cooler in higher elevations.
High temperatures are forecast to reach the low 80s.
525 AM CDT Wed Jul 24 2024 (Today through Thursday) A broad upper-level trough is still in place to our north with moist, southwesterly flow present across Middle TN.
1059 AM EDT Wed Jul 24 2024 A cold front will sag south into the middle Ohio Valley today bringing a chance for thunderstorms.
In the upper levels, deep troughing centered over coastal British Columbia maintains the status quo of stable onshore flow across the Pacific Northwest. Expect similar highs to yesterday across the area this afternoon as 850 mb temps around 11-13 degrees C corresponds to highs generally in the low to mid 80s across the interior lowlands.
645 AM EDT Wed Jul 24 2024 - Scattered showers and thunderstorms Wednesday ahead of and along a southerly moving cold front. - Warmer, drier weather is anticipated late week through the weekend with highs in the mid to upper 80s. A cold front from west to east draped over central IA, northern IL, and into southern MI will slowly move southward today across the CWA. Temperatures should slightly decrease behind the front with the cooler airmass moving in from behind the boundary. Ridging builds eastward into the area from the central CONUS and brings a return to dry weather conditions and a slight warming trend from Thursday through the weekend. Highs in the lower 80s (upper 70s on Thursday) for the area this weekend.
Otherwise, a resilient ridge continues over the west coast on Wed. Near normal temperatures are likely for the weekend as a trough sets up over the west coast. This trough is forecast to remain relatively dry and no precipitation or thunderstorms are expected at this time. High pressure continues to build today. High pressure will weaken and marine stratus will have a chance to deepen starting tonight and may potentially reform each night into the end of the week. The return of south to southwest winds over Mendocino and Lake county ridges are expected to see gusts to 25 mph in the favored areas.
(Now through Thursday) We will likely see the highest coverage of showers and storms for the week occurring this afternoon and evening due to a combination of both forcing aloft and at the surface. The forecast area will remain sandwiched between an upper trough to our northwest and an upper ridge to our southeast. Diurnally driven showers and storms will develop on Thursday, with the highest coverage expected across the southern half of the forecast area.
935 AM CDT Wed Jul 24 2024 - High pressure will dominate the latter half of the week with at or just below average temperatures.
605 AM CDT Wed Jul 24 2024 -Patchy fog this morning diminishes after sunrise - Low end (10-20%) chance for an isolated shower of thunderstorm today though most will stay dry -Dry weather and above normal temperatures return to the forecast for the second half of the week Upper level troughing that has influence our weather for the last several day will gradually shift to the east of our area today. Otherwise expect rising heights over the forecast area today as stout ridging to our west begins to influence our weather today.
527 AM EDT Wed Jul 24 2024 A warm front will lift across the area today. Weak low pressure will approach tonight.
557 AM CDT Wed Jul 24 2024 (Today through Thursday night) High pressure will continue to expand and bring warmer temperatures. On Thursday flow will become a bit more northeasterly as the ridges takes a bit of the positive tilt from the upper trough moving through the Pacific Northwest.
438 AM CDT Wed Jul 24 2024 - High pressure will dominate the latter half of the week with at or just below average temperatures.
Coverage of SHRA/TSRA will be lower overall, with the highest chance focused from MCO/ISM west to LEE. Decreased chances for showers and thunderstorms today, as the Atlantic ridge axis drifts well north of the local area. Prevailing southeasterly flow will increase slightly today on the western periphery of the ridge, advecting drier air into the local area. The highest chances look to be over the interior, which will be closest to the sea breeze collision. High temperatures this afternoon will reach the lower to mid-90s, with peak heat indices 103-107.
756 AM EDT Wed Jul 24 2024 * Scattered showers and thunderstorms expected through early afternoon as a cold front tracks through the area.
The overall pattern is being shaped by a broad upper high centered over southern Nevada, with NE flow aloft over our neck of the woods.
Coverage of SHRA/TSRA will be lower overall, with the highest chance focused from MCO/ISM west to LEE. Generally favorable boating conditions persist, as the Atlantic ridge axis remains north of the local area into this weekend, then weakens.
543 AM EDT Wed Jul 24 2024 A warm front will lift across the area today. Weak low pressure will approach tonight.
Discussion: Upper troughing with a southwest to northeast oriented H3 jet of 85- 100kts remains placed over the Ohio Valley region. Believe the low probability wording in the HWO is good and will continue to roll with that.
This afternoon, mid-level water vapor imagery shows a weak wave that has continued to push east into southeast KS and southwest MO, a large ridge of high pressure set up over the western US, and a long wave trough axis working its way across the eastern US.
1222 PM CDT Wed Jul 24 2024 (Today through Thursday) A mid- to upper-level trough will continue to deepen and move farther south into South Texas today and tomorrow, accompanied by a weak stationary boundary that will drift just north of the area. The coverage will largely depend on the position of the trough. Temperatures will be moderated by extensive cloud cover and rainfall, with highs in the mid 80s to low 90s and overnight lows in the low to mid 70s for both today and tomorrow.
Our region remains situated between troughing to our northeast and ridging to our west associated with a 597 dam high centered over the Great Basin region, with weak flow throughout the troposphere. At the surface, high pressure and nearly calm winds continue. The western ridge has encroached further eastward into our area, sending higher mid level heights in from the west, and helping send temperatures into the upper 80s as of 230 PM. A weak cold front is draped from SW Iowa ESE toward the MO/IA/IL tri state border, and with some slightly enhanced mid level winds and up to 2000 J/kg of MU CAPE, isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible later this afternoon over northeastern Missouri.
Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Upper level trough moves east tonight followed by increasing upper level ridging Thursday into the remainder of the week. Lows in the noticeably cooler mid 40s to mid 50s expected. Increasing ridging at the surface and aloft Thursday. Warmer Thursday with highs in the mid and upper 70s with light northwest winds. Pattern Synopsis: Troughing will continue to slide east of the Great Lakes over New England as ridging begins to fold over the region this weekend.
Otherwise, more calm and slightly cooler than normal temperatures are expected through Thursday. Slightly warmer temperatures on Thursday, with highs in the upper 80s to upper 90s.
The high risk of grass fires in the valley continues, with enhanced fire behavior even with lower wind speeds.
Active afternoon/evening anticipated as a cold front approaches the region.
With the high to our northwest, we've got 10-15 kts of mid level NE steering flow to help push convective development now over the White Mountains into the lower elevations later this afternoon into this evening.
150 PM EDT Wed Jul 24 2024 A cold front will sag south into the middle Ohio Valley today bringing a chance for thunderstorms.
251 PM CDT Wed Jul 24 2024 - A weak cold front is moving into the area this evening.
A cold front moves through with little fanfare tomorrow, at most bringing a few scattered showers, mainly over northern areas. Behind the front, it will become noticeably drier and cooler, setting the stage for a pleasant weekend. The actual cold front will move through tomorrow with little fanfare. The cold front will usher in noticeably drier and cooler weather, with dew points falling into the 50s and temperatures falling into the 50s and low 60s.
940 AM MDT Wed Jul 24 2024 Strong ridge exists over the region with 500mb heights on the order of 595dam. JKL The ridge axis centered over central MT will continue to slowly shift east, bringing the highest temperatures of the week to today and Thursday, with highs reaching up to 107. On Thursday, the ridge is expected to shift far enough east that locations west of Billings will see highs in the upper 90s while the highest temps linger over the east. Additionally, a cold front moving through the area is expected to bring stronger wind gusts, around 25 to 35 mph. With RHs remaining in the teens and twenties and fuels outside of the highest elevations ready to go, a Fire Weather Watch is in place for Thursday.
235 PM EDT Wed Jul 24 2024 - 20-30% chances for showers/storms south of US 24 between now and sunrise Thursday - Warmer, drier weather is anticipated late week through the weekend with highs in the mid to upper 80s.
Generally favorable boating conditions persist, as the Atlantic ridge axis remains north of the local area into this weekend, then weakens.
1228 PM CDT Wed Jul 24 2024 (Today through Thursday night) High pressure will continue to expand and bring warmer temperatures. On Thursday flow will become a bit more northeasterly as the ridges takes a bit of the positive tilt from the upper trough moving through the Pacific Northwest.
1234 PM CDT Wed Jul 24 2024 -Patchy fog this morning diminishes after sunrise - Low end (10-20%) chance for an isolated shower of thunderstorm today though most will stay dry -Dry weather and above normal temperatures return to the forecast for the second half of the week Upper level troughing that has influence our weather for the last several day will gradually shift to the east of our area today. Otherwise expect rising heights over the forecast area today as stout ridging to our west begins to influence our weather today.
(Now through Thursday) Through Thursday, an upper level low organizes over the eastern Southern Plains/Lower Mississippi River Valley, with the upper ridge remaining over eastern portions of the Southeast.
- Warmer, drier weather is anticipated late week through the weekend with highs in the mid to upper 80s. A cold front from west to east draped over central IA, northern IL, and into southern MI will slowly move southward today across the CWA. Temperatures should slightly decrease behind the front with the cooler airmass moving in from behind the boundary. Ridging builds eastward into the area from the central CONUS and brings a return to dry weather conditions and a slight warming trend from Thursday through the weekend. Highs in the lower 80s (upper 70s on Thursday) for the area this weekend.
(Through Tonight) Mid/upper-level trough axis that has been directly overhead the last few days has shifted southeast of the forecast area today as a potent 598dam ridge over the Desert Southwest/Great Basin region continues to build eastward over the Plains. Mid-level WV/IR satellite imagery shows decent subsidence occurring from the ridge and has kept mostly dry conditions thus far, with the exception of perhaps a couple of showers in southeast OK and west- central AR. Mid/upper-level ridging will further build-in over the region, shoving the upper- level trough axis farther south and east of the area. Temperatures will be near to slightly below seasonal average, with daytime highs reaching the low-mid 90s for most locations.
155 PM EDT Wed Jul 24 2024 Weak upper level ridging will remain across the region throughout the weekend while an upper level trough moves across the northeast U. At the surface, high pressure will continue to ridge west across the Florida peninsula with a south-southeast flow across the area.
Areas along and south of I-40 will have the higher PoPs, although anyone could see some rain - especially in the afternoon and evening.
Any active conditions we see through the forecast period will depend less on the synoptic scale and more on the mesoscale due to high pressure over the Atlantic reigning supreme over the larger-scale pattern. Over the next couple of days, this ridging will lose some of its amplification in our region, and winds will trend lighter to near 10 mph by tomorrow afternoon. A ridge associated with expansive high pressure over the North Atlantic will remain north of the Florida Keys coastal waters, resulting in moderate east to southeast breezes prevailing across the Keys coastal waters through Thursday night.
A ridge axis associated with expansive high pressure over the North Atlantic will remain north of the Florida Keys coastal waters, resulting in moderate east to southeast breezes prevailing across the Keys coastal waters through Thursday night.
(This evening through Thursday) A 599 dam mid-level ridge will remain centered across the western U. with a weakness in the ridge across the Arklatex. Otherwise, with the weakness in the ridge and the attendant low- level thermal ridge remaining to the west, temperatures will remain near to slightly below-average in the low to mid 90s deg F.
1201 PM CDT Wed Jul 24 2024 (Today and tonight) Upper level high pressure will remain anchored near Las Vegas, Nevada, with a trough extending from the western Great Lakes to the Lone Star state. Today's high temperatures will be warmer, especially on the Caprock where heights will increase the most with 24-hr change around +5 degrees there and closer to +2 degrees east of the escarpment.
A mid/upper level trough oriented SSW to NNE across the eastern half of Texas, may become a cut off low by Thursday as it slightly deepens and continues to meander across the region. The main concern is where the upper low sets up by Thursday. Regardless of where the upper low is located, the abundant moisture will still lead to at least scattered convection along the afternoon sea breeze.
Thursday, a low level high pressure starts developing over the MS/AL area through the day Thursday.
1247 PM CDT Wed Jul 24 2024 - Marginal risk (level 1 out of 5) today for much of central Illinois as a cold front makes its way across the region.
324 PM CDT Wed Jul 24 2024 - High pressure will dominate the latter half of the week with at or just below average temperatures.
The upper high will remain nearly stationary over the southwestern CONUS. An upper low over southwestern Canada will continue to flatten the upper high and push its associated upper ridge axis eastward from the foothills of Central Rockies today to the Central and Northern Plains tomorrow. Upper highs and thicknesses should remain fairly steady-state and will help tomorrow's highs remain nearly identical to today's highs.
Temperatures remain on the cooler side as of late vs what we have are used to for July. For tomorrow, will expect additional isolated to scattered showers and storms with little movement to the upper trough axis. Will show 20-30 PoPs tomorrow night for points along and east of the I35 corridor with lows back in mainly the lower 70s.
1024 AM CDT Wed Jul 24 2024 - Marginal risk (level 1 out of 5) today for much of central Illinois as a cold front makes its way across the region.
/16 ******************* previous issued at 5:20 AM CDT ****** We will likely see the highest coverage of showers and storms for the week occurring this afternoon and evening due to a combination of both forcing aloft and at the surface. The forecast area will remain sandwiched between an upper trough to our northwest and an upper ridge to our southeast. Diurnally driven showers and storms will develop on Thursday, with the highest coverage expected across the southern half of the forecast area.
Speaking of flow aloft, have we mentioned high pressure is back? The SW CONUS ridge continues to build, keeping highs tomorrow more or less the same in the mid 90s.
(This evening through Thursday Night) Upper-level trough across northeast Texas into Arkansas to maintain an unstable environment across the region through the short-term period ending Thursday night. Overnight lows tonight are forecast to fall into the upper 60s to lower 70s with highs on Thursday in the low to mid 80s.
The upper trof axis that dissected the area yesterday has sunk farther to the south today, so shower and storm chances will be more confined to far SE OK into west-central AR for this afternoon. Expect high temps a degree or two warmer than yesterday. High temperatures are forecast to be a degree or two warmer than yesterday across eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas.
Hi-res guidance continues to show a 594dam upper-level high pressure system over the southwest CONUS. Meanwhile, the upper level trough axis across the southeast US will continue to push northward heading into the overnight period. Rain chances will start to diminish later this evening before increasing in coverage well into the overnight, with mid to high PoP chances (between 45-60%) across our forecast area, as deep tropical moisture continues to be pooled east of the trough. The combination of continuing cloud cover along with decent rain coverage will keep nighttime temperatures in the low 70s across the area.
- Moderate to minor flooding continues on parts of the Mississippi River with minor flooding on the lower Rock River. Late this afternoon and tonight, scattered showers and storms are expected across the southern CWA with the higher potential along and south of Highway 34 from Ottumwa to Galesburg. There appears to be another boundary sinking south to the Highway 30 area where the HRRR was previously showing some development.
1224 PM CDT Wed Jul 24 2024 (Today through Thursday afternoon) Upper level ridge strengthens a bit for today decreasing cloud cover and shower coverage over the area even more compared to yesterday.
1035 AM PDT Wed Jul 24 2024 Slightly cooler weather today with more cooling through the end of the week. (Today and tonight) Temperatures are running about 5 degrees warmer than this time yesterday, but the forecast continues to improve for the remainder of the week. Low temperatures will be about 5-10 degrees cooler tonight, and the Heat Advisories are all set to expire at 11 PM.
Strong upper ridge is situated over northern Arizona. The air mass dries out further into the weekend as an upper low pressure system moves across northern California with onshore southwest flow.
(Rest of today through Thursday) High pressure over the Western Atlantic waters extending back into the Florida Peninsula will remain nearly stationary through Thursday. Highs on Thursday will once again get into the lower to mid 90s over most areas, except for east coastal areas where it will be around 90.
720 PM CDT Wed Jul 24 2024 (This evening through Thursday Night) Upper-level trough across northeast Texas into Arkansas to maintain an unstable environment across the region through the short-term period ending Thursday night. Overnight lows tonight are forecast to fall into the upper 60s to lower 70s with highs on Thursday in the low to mid 80s.
Large area of strong high pressure remains centered over the Western Great Lakes region late this evening. Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Upper level trough moves east tonight followed by increasing upper level ridging Thursday into the remainder of the week. Lows in the noticeably cooler mid 40s to mid 50s expected. Increasing ridging at the surface and aloft Thursday. Warmer Thursday with highs in the mid and upper 70s with light northwest winds. Pattern Synopsis: Troughing will continue to slide east of the Great Lakes over New England as ridging begins to fold over the region this weekend.
Slightly cooler weather today with more cooling through the end of the week.