Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
However, behind the showers low clouds will likely linger as the actual cold front continues to move over the peninsula. A line of showers associated with a cold front will continue to move south east over the peninsula. The remainder of the day will be dreary with low clouds lingering as the actual cold front moves over.
708 AM EST Wed Nov 20 2024 High pressure will build across the region today.
MOS guidance has been consistent in advertising lows in the some of our cooler drainage spots in the lower 30s for the last 2 days. While a widespread freeze is not expected, some spots could get rather close to the freezing mark, especially in the Hill Country, and perhaps a few locations just east of the I-35 Corridor, in the Coastal Prairies. Temperatures should rebound nicely tomorrow, with highs back in the lower 70s for most, and winds turning back out of the south southwest by late morning.
Colder air is moving into the Northland this morning, driven by breezy southwest winds wrapping around a large low-pressure system to the northwest. As the low-pressure system weakens and shifts southeast today, accumulating light snow will be possible across the southwest parts of the Northland though snow in the air will be possible to some degree almost everywhere. Forecast models, including the ECMWF and GFS, now place the low center near southern Lake Michigan by midday Thursday, with further movement southward during the afternoon. Lake-enhanced precipitation along the South Shore is still possible, but warmer air wrapping around the low could bring a mix of rain and snow or just rain by Thursday afternoon.
Areas of rain continue to move through the area as a cold front moves across the Florida peninsula. Overnight lows tonight will dip into the low 50's north to low 60's south. However, behind the showers low clouds will likely linger as the actual cold front continues to move over the peninsula. A cold front continues to move through the eastern gulf waters.
As Wednesday dawns, the deep upper level trough over the upper Midwest will reorganize itself and push eastward over the Great Lakes, while a large area of ridging over the Rockies nudges out over the Front Range and towards the Plains. Skies will be mostly clear overhead while temperatures climb only into the 60s across the region, ranging from the lower 60s north to mid and upper 60s south. DeQueen and neighboring sites in southwestern Arkansas and extreme southeast Oklahoma may be within a degree or two of the freezing mark.
Colder and blustery conditions have settled into the state today as a deep upper low continues to churn just to our north. So far there have been no impacts to local roadways with air and ground temps near to just above freezing, but can't rule out some localized issues after dark. Even though the low is pushing east, surface pressure falls still stretch far enough west to keep winds gusty through the day, especially over our north/east counties. Model soundings show ~40-45 kts at the top of the mixed layer, however a near neutral temp advection regime may not be as favorable for mixing this higher momentum air to the surface.
Have cancelled the High Wind Warning for the Black Hills, with wind gusts the rest of today generally at or below 45 mph. Even with the cooler temperatures, the strong winds and lower relative humidity will result in elevated fire weather conditions across the western South Dakota plains.
As the cold front advances eastward into Alabama, northwesterly low level flow is beginning to usher in a cooler and drier airmass. Water vapor depicts a significant embedded dry channel, associated with an upstream cold front, situated over Arkansas beginning to make its way into the northwestern portions of the CWA.
Issued by National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 1124 AM CST Wed Nov 20 2024 (Tonight through Thursday night) Winds will start picking up in the next few hours as high pressure/cooler temperatures surge into the region.
1130 AM CST Wed Nov 20 2024 (Today through Thursday Night) An upper low is expected to move southeast through the Midwest today as an upper ridge builds over the Rockies. By Thursday night, the uppper low moves to the east coast and the upper ridge moves into the Plains. A cold front will exit eastern Arkansas this morning. High pressure will build into the state behind the front and this will bring gusty northwest winds to the area. Another dry cold front will move through Arkansas Thursday from north to south. This front will bring another shot of cooler and drier air to the state. High temperatures today will be in the mid 50s to mid 60s and in the lower 50s to mid 60s Thursday.
As sfc ridging continues to build in, drier air will be seen. Much cooler air is expected the next couple of days as another cold front moves through tonight into Thursday morning. Many locations will likely experience below freezing temperatures the next few nights. (Today) A passing upper level wave and associated surface cold front pushed through the area yesterday evening. Breezy northwesterly winds behind the front will continue through through the day today, gradually advecting cooler air into the area. Low temperatures will mostly be in the 30s this morning, with the coldest areas near freezing.
Areas of light rain will continue to move through the area as a cold front moves across the Florida peninsula. The front will completely exit the region to the southeast by Thursday morning allowing for high pressure to build into the area to close out the work week and will remain the dominant weather feature into the weekend. Mostly sunny skies, much cooler temperatures and lower humidity can be expected through the remainder of the week and into the weekend.
- Cooler weather is expected through the end of the week. /NEW/ /Through Thursday/ Cooler air continues to filter into the region in the wake of last night's cold front. Low temperatures will bottom out in the mid to upper 30s for many locations, with the urban DFW Metroplex remaining in the low 40s.
(Rest of today through Thursday) The cold front has cleared the area with some areas of stratocu behind it. Temperatures will drop tonight into the 30s and possibly touch freezing in some locations along the plateau. Models continue to consistently show snow showers for the plateau Thursday night as a lobe of energy pivots around the upper low located over the Northeast. We are getting in range of the HREF which shows the potential of an inch (or maybe 2) along the highest elevations of the northern plateau.
The cold front which moved through overnight is now east of the region. ARS Cooler temperatures return to the Mid-South today behind a cold front.
(Tonight through Thursday night) The passage of a cold front late last night has brought a much welcomed and noticeably cooler and drier airmass across Deep South Texas. Brisk north winds will begin to subside as high pressure settles in across the region and allow for wind speeds to fall below 10 mph late this evening. Along the Lower Texas beaches, a high risk of rip currents will continue through at least Thursday evening due to increased winds and seas associated with the passage of the cold front. A Coastal Flood Advisory has been issued for the Lower Texas beaches from 6 PM this evening through 6 AM tomorrow morning due to the potential for minor coastal flooding as elevated seas coincide with high tide tonight(~10:57 PM).
A pre-frontal trough is moving through the Keys this afternoon. A southerly wind today has kept temperatures for now in the lower 80s.
214 PM EST Wed Nov 20 2024 A cold front crosses the area today. A cold front moving across the region will provide some showers this afternoon. Could see a burst of snow in the higher elevations before the clearing arrives. An upper level low will drop down toward the area on Thursday. Colder air will continue to move in under northwest flow as a lobe rotates around the upper low over the area. The lowlands will generally to too warm for snow until late in the day. The higher elevations of the mountains will be cold enough however to accumulate, with up to 5 inches possible during the day Thursday.
(Rest of today through Thursday) A cold front will push through the region tonight into tomorrow, ushering in the first "cool" weather snap of the season. Low temperatures tonight won't be reflective of that as the really cool (cold?) air won't be here until later this week, so temps will only drop into the low to mid 60s over interior and SW FL, with upper 60s over SE FL. High temperatures will generally range from the low to mid 70s over interior and SW FL, to the upper 70s over SE FL.
147 PM MST Wed Nov 20 2024 High pressure will continue to build over the region through tomorrow leading to a quick warmup and above normal temperatures Thursday and into this weekend.
- Cooler weather is expected through the end of the week. /Issued 1046 AM CST Wed Nov 20 2024/ /Through Thursday/ Cooler air continues to filter into the region in the wake of last night's cold front. Low temperatures will bottom out in the mid to upper 30s for many locations, with the urban DFW Metroplex remaining in the low 40s.
A reinforcing cold front moved across the region last night, with most of the region 5-10 degrees cooler than this time yesterday. As a high pressure center builds into East Texas later today and tonight, the wind speeds will weaken. As Wednesday dawns, the deep upper level trough over the upper Midwest will reorganize itself and push eastward over the Great Lakes, while a large area of ridging over the Rockies nudges out over the Front Range and towards the Plains. Skies will be mostly clear overhead while temperatures climb only into the 60s across the region, ranging from the lower 60s north to mid and upper 60s south. DeQueen and neighboring sites in southwestern Arkansas and extreme southeast Oklahoma may be within a degree or two of the freezing mark.
325 PM EST Wed Nov 20 2024 Weak ridging will remain in the area tonight.
(Tonight through Thursday night) The upper level flow is from the northwest as a ridge builds over the Rocky Mountains. A cold front has moved off the coast and northerly to northeasterly winds are bringing cooler, drier air to South-Central Texas. Temperatures and dewpoints are 10-15 degrees cooler than 24 hours ago. The upper ridge will shift toward the east during this period. Some models are showing lows below freezing in the Hill Country and Edwards Plateau, but they are on the low side of the solutions and we do not have temperatures below freezing in our forecast. That said, it would not be shocking to see a few spots reach freezing in the morning.
pdf Northwest flow tonight will bring in much cooler and drier air, with PWATs dropping below 0. Johns river basin area staying in the low 50s. Surface winds will increase behind the cold frontal passage, with northwesterly winds of 10-15 mph gusting higher by sunrise.
This afternoon, a broad upper level low is noted on water vapor imagery spinning over portions of the Upper Midwest. On Thursday, main upper low will dig southeast across the Great Lakes with a trailing vort lobe diving south into northeastern Illinois Thursday afternoon into the evening. Will forego any wind headlines at this time owing to the low confidence, but a sporadic advisory criteria gust may occur Thursday.
As the low moves northward and pressures in the center begin to rise, winds weaken slightly so the Wind Advisories appear on track to be expired on time. The winter weather advisory still seems on track with the forecast, with mountain valleys receiving 1-3 inches, 3-6 above 5000 feet, 6-12 above 6000 feet, and upwards of a foot along ridges.
(Rest of Today) A potent upper trough digging into the OH and TN valleys this afternoon will shift east into the middle Atlantic states tonight.
1238 PM EST Wed Nov 20 2024 High pressure will build across the region today.
Water vapor shows a lack of moisture rotating westward on north side of upper low toward Lake Winnipeg while moisture is moving southeast on the west and southwest side of the system into ND and parts of western MN. 700 mb frontogenetical forcing is present just west of the upper low today near or just east of the Red River this morning/early aftn but moisture content is lacking I do believe for any heavy snow. Temps today will be in the mid 20s in west central Minnesota to around 30 far northern RRV and NW Minnesota as warmer 925 mb temps actually come back south behind the upper low into NE ND/NW MN. Brief 500 mb ridging moves but low level cooling continues esp into north central ND. Highs all areas should be below freezing most days in the extended.
1039 AM CST Wed Nov 20 2024 (Rest of Today) A cold front was pushing southeast into southern middle TN and north central AL.
Drier and much warmer weather is in store the rest of this work week.
Snow totals have generally remained at or below an inch through our first round of snow this morning, with the highest totals further north and west where the Winter Weather Advisory is still in place. It is expected that well-traveled roadways will largely avoid any accumulations (similar to this morning), but slick conditions may still develop with temperatures dipping below freezing for much of the region already. The main driver of forcing associated with this second push of snow is positive (cyclonic) vorticity advection as the low moves east. These locations have seen the lowest totals for snowfall so far, and are expected to have little to no blowing snow concerns with these winds. An area of ridging upstream of the upper low will help lead to drier, and consistent conditions through the weekend.
19Z water vapor imagery showed a closed low over northern MN with another closed upper low off the Pacific Northwest coast. With upper ridging along the northern Rockies, northwest flow was observed across the central plains. Surface obs showed much drier air moving in from the northwest as an area of high pressure pushed into central TX.
1007 AM MST Wed Nov 20 2024 18Z Aviation Discussion High pressure will build over the region over the next couple of days leading to a quick warmup and above normal temperatures Thursday and into this weekend.
We can expect cooler temperatures tonight, with widespread low temperatures in the low to mid 40s. High temperatures for Thursday will remain in the low to mid 70s with slightly warmer low temperatures Thursday night (low to upper 40s).
Troughing across the Upper Great Plains has shifted eastward into the Midwest and the bottom of the trough axis has veering mid-level flow to zonal flow. That said, winds will remain slightly elevated tonight, playing an important role in the freezing temperature threshold north of the I-30 corridor with a 20-40 percent chance of at or below freezing temperatures in an area generally between Idabel, OK and De Queen, AR.
526 PM CST Wed Nov 20 2024 (Rest of Today) A potent upper trough digging into the OH and TN valleys this afternoon will shift east into the middle Atlantic states tonight.
342 PM CST Wed Nov 20 2024 - Cold night tonight with ideal radiational cooling leading to widespread low temperatures in the lower to mid 20s.
842 PM CST Wed Nov 20 2024 High pressure is building across the Lower MS Valley this evening along with a dry and cool airmass.
529 PM CST Wed Nov 20 2024 - Cold night tonight with ideal radiational cooling leading to widespread low temperatures in the lower to mid 20s.
(Tonight) An upper low over the western Great Lakes/Upper Mississippi River Valley region will deepen a bit more over the next day, as it slowly moves to the ESE. 8 PM readings across the Tennessee Valley ranged in the lower 40s NE Alabama to near 50, with NW winds around 5 mph.
653 PM EST Wed Nov 20 2024 The cold front will cross the area this evening and move offshore overnight.
711 PM MST Wed Nov 20 2024 KEY MESSAGES: - Patchy freezing fog possible in far Northeast MT tonight.
This is the welcomed cooler, drier fall air we've been waiting for for so long. We are behind the trough that brought rain earlier in the week and ahead of an H5 ridge of high pressure to the west over the Mountain West and moving into the plains. 45 which is in the lower quartile for this day.
400 PM MST Wed Nov 20 2024 High pressure will continue to build over the region through tomorrow leading to a quick warmup and above normal temperatures Thursday and into this weekend.
At the surface, a strong cold front is currently moving across the local area and will clear the area this evening. High pressure builds in behind the front, allowing for a much colder and drier airmass to filter into the region from the northwest. Highs on Thursday will only top out in the low to mid 60s.
Also, the forecast still looks good for Thursday night's light snow for the higher elevations of the Upper Cumberland. Generally a dusting should be expected for the high elevations but a couple of the highest points between Jamestown and Monterey could pick up a quick 1 inch if everything works out just right. (Rest of today through Thursday) The cold front has cleared the area with some areas of stratocu behind it. Temperatures will drop tonight into the 30s and possibly touch freezing in some locations along the plateau. Models continue to consistently show snow showers for the plateau Thursday night as a lobe of energy pivots around the upper low located over the Northeast. We are getting in range of the HREF which shows the potential of an inch (or maybe 2) along the highest elevations of the northern plateau.
517 PM CST Wed Nov 20 2024 (Tonight through Thursday night) The passage of a cold front late last night has brought a much welcomed and noticeably cooler and drier airmass across Deep South Texas. Brisk north winds will begin to subside as high pressure settles in across the region and allow for wind speeds to fall below 10 mph late this evening. Along the Lower Texas beaches, a high risk of rip currents will continue through at least Thursday evening due to increased winds and seas associated with the passage of the cold front. A Coastal Flood Advisory has been issued for the Lower Texas beaches from 6 PM this evening through 6 AM tomorrow morning due to the potential for minor coastal flooding as elevated seas coincide with high tide tonight(~10:57 PM).
652 PM EST Wed Nov 20 2024 Areas of light rain will continue to move through the area as a cold front moves across the Florida peninsula. The front will completely exit the region to the southeast by Thursday morning allowing for high pressure to build into the area to close out the work week and will remain the dominant weather feature into the weekend. Mostly sunny skies, much cooler temperatures and lower humidity can be expected through the remainder of the week and into the weekend.
211 PM MST Wed Nov 20 2024 KEY MESSAGES: - Patchy freezing fog possible in far Northeast MT tonight.
539 PM CST Wed Nov 20 2024 (Rest of today through Thursday) The cold front has cleared the area with some areas of stratocu behind it. Temperatures will drop tonight into the 30s and possibly touch freezing in some locations along the plateau. Models continue to consistently show snow showers for the plateau Thursday night as a lobe of energy pivots around the upper low located over the Northeast. We are getting in range of the HREF which shows the potential of an inch (or maybe 2) along the highest elevations of the northern plateau.
Updated at 234 AM CST Thu Nov 21 2024 - Near freezing temperatures tonight across portions of the far southwest Texas Panhandle and northern South Plains.
918 PM CST Wed Nov 20 2024 Temperatures across our northern zones are trending cooler than expected. In doing so, portions of our northern zones, mainly McCurtain, Sevier, and Howard counties could drop below the freezing point. With freezing conditions expected, I have issued a Freeze Warning for the 3 aforementioned counties from midnight tonight through 8:00 AM Thursday morning. Troughing across the Upper Great Plains has shifted eastward into the Midwest and the bottom of the trough axis has veering mid-level flow to zonal flow. That said, winds will remain slightly elevated tonight, playing an important role in the freezing temperature threshold north of the I-30 corridor with a 20-40 percent chance of at or below freezing temperatures in an area generally between Idabel, OK and De Queen, AR.
(Today and tonight) A secondary cold front is pushing through the region early this morning and this front has been ushering in the stronger push of colder weather. Low temperatures will be much cooler and in the upper 30s across Alabama/Georgia counties and around 40 in our Florida counties.
Calm winds across the forecast area tonight with below- average temperatures and some locations are already freezing.
1135 PM CST Wed Nov 20 2024 (Tonight) An upper low over the western Great Lakes/Upper Mississippi River Valley region will deepen a bit more over the next day, as it slowly moves to the ESE. 8 PM readings across the Tennessee Valley ranged in the lower 40s NE Alabama to near 50, with NW winds around 5 mph.
Clouds from the lower pressure center still linger over the area tonight, mainly over northeastern South Dakota, but they will continue to move out through today giving way to mostly clear skies. High temperatures today will struggle to get above freezing where snow accumulated yesterday, and therefore will likely not be able to provide any significant melting of the snowpack.
Temperatures have already dropped into the lower 40s in spots.
1136 PM CST Wed Nov 20 2024 - Cold night tonight with ideal radiational cooling leading to widespread low temperatures in the lower to mid 20s.
The arrival of a secondary cold front has brought with it NNW winds and cooler temps.
1015 PM MST Wed Nov 20 2024 High pressure will continue to build over the region through tomorrow leading to a quick warmup and above normal temperatures Thursday and into this weekend.
1015 PM CST Wed Nov 20 2024 Temperatures across our northern zones are trending cooler than expected. In doing so, portions of our northern zones, mainly McCurtain, Sevier, and Howard counties could drop below the freezing point. With freezing conditions expected, I have issued a Freeze Warning for the 3 aforementioned counties from midnight tonight through 8:00 AM Thursday morning. Troughing across the Upper Great Plains has shifted eastward into the Midwest and the bottom of the trough axis has veering mid-level flow to zonal flow. That said, winds will remain slightly elevated tonight, playing an important role in the freezing temperature threshold north of the I-30 corridor with a 20-40 percent chance of at or below freezing temperatures in an area generally between Idabel, OK and De Queen, AR.
1015 PM CST Wed Nov 20 2024 (Tonight through Thursday night) The passage of a cold front late last night has brought a much welcomed and noticeably cooler and drier airmass across Deep South Texas. Brisk north winds will begin to subside as high pressure settles in across the region and allow for wind speeds to fall below 10 mph late this evening. Along the Lower Texas beaches, a high risk of rip currents will continue through at least Thursday evening due to increased winds and seas associated with the passage of the cold front. A Coastal Flood Advisory has been issued for the Lower Texas beaches from 6 PM this evening through 6 AM tomorrow morning due to the potential for minor coastal flooding as elevated seas coincide with high tide tonight(~10:57 PM).
A dry cold front will enter the area from the north by mid morning, quickly passing through the forecast area. Highs today will be a few degrees lower than yesterday as a result, ranging from the low to mid 50s in northern areas, to the upper 50s or lower 60s in southern areas.
227 AM CST Thu Nov 21 2024 - Cooler than normal temperatures and breezy conditions are expected the next two days.
107 AM EST Thu Nov 21 2024 High pressure crosses the region overnight.
- Some locations will drop near to below freezing early Thursday morning. Temperatures will be warmer today with highs in the mid 60s to lower 70s.
Snow levels are forecast to stay near 5,500 feet overnight, with near-freezing temperatures as low as 5,000 feet.
- Cooler weather is expected through the end of the week.