Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
As the upper low moves across the area this evening Isolated to scattered showers and storm are occuring, mainly along and north of I-20. Through tonight: The closed upper low, centered over the ArkLaTex region as of mid afternoon, will be the primary weather driver as we go through the near term. Moist ascent will be most pronounced in the deformation zone north of the low center, which is expected to move into northwest portions of the area by early evening, then track to east central MS prior to daybreak.
The high will not stay long and should be east of the area by Tue night with return flow starting again.
1244 AM EDT Mon Mar 10 2025 High pressure will settle south of the state over the next couple of days, helping warmer air to surge in Monday and Tuesday. Mins drop into the 30s for everyone, with milder mins on the high ground of south central PA.
KEY MESSAGES: - A weak and dry cold front will cross the area Tuesday.
- Turning slightly cooler Tuesday as a dry cold front lifts across the region.
A cold front is currently moving across the Northern Rockies this morning, producing gusty winds over northwest Montana. Temperatures will also run 15 to 20 degrees cooler today, compared to recent days.
418 AM EDT Mon Mar 10 2025 Showers and isolated storms continue through this evening as low pressure moves along the coast and spreads moisture into the forecast area. Isentropic lift has been relatively weak so far early this morning with showers remaining mostly scattered but as the low lifts northeastward from the Gulf, isentropic lift will deepen with rain becoming widespread and more moderate, especially in the southeastern portion of the forecast area around daybreak. As the upper low shifts over the area, strong lift and a lingering moist air mass will lead to additional widespread showers across the area through the afternoon and into the evening. As the upper low pushes to the east, drier air will shift in as rain tapers off from west to east.
308 AM EDT Mon Mar 10 2025 A storm system passing to our south may bring some clouds to the area today, otherwise high pressure will keep conditions dry for the upcoming work week. Low pressure is moving along the Florida-Georgia line. As the low moves off the southeast coast, the clouds will exit the region leaving us with clear skies tonight. temperatures trending warmer.
Clear skies will promote efficient overnight cooling, with lows in the 40s inland and the low 50s along the immediate coast. Overnight lows on Tuesday should sit just below 60 for most of the area, with the coast in the lower 60s.
This will be delayed for KSSI as an upper low moves across SE GA this afternoon with possible thunderstorm and showers.
336 AM EDT Mon Mar 10 2025 High pressure lying across the mid Atlantic region will maintain fair and dry weather through mid week.
214 AM MDT Mon Mar 10 2025 - High pressure will dry conditions and above normal warmth early this week.
1109 PM CDT Sun Mar 9 2025 Updated at 1107 PM CDT Sun Mar 9 2025 - Showers will continue this evening, with the highest chances (60-70%) across north Mississippi.
Lows generally from the mid 20s to the lower 30s. Troughing will continue to shift northeastward as high pressure tries to build in its wake, leaving the area in a more progressive/ zonal flow. then northeast into Canada with pressure gradients tightening between the aformentioned low and high pressure. As a result, gusty southwest winds (gusts 30-40+ mph) will turn northwest by Tuesday afternoon as the low and its attendant cold front continue to exit the region to the northeast.
Updated at 351 AM CDT Mon Mar 10 2025 - Warmer this week.
Radiational cooling drops lows tonight into the 40s and 50s, slightly warmer than this morning. Patchy fog may develop late tonight in the ranchlands where temperatures crash the lowest.
An upper level ridge will become suppressed by trough passage to the north. Increasing clouds as the system passes by to the north and temperatures will be slightly cooler on Monday with lower 500mb heights and 1000-500 thickness. Then southwest flow increases again as a trough approaches, with slightly warmer temperatures Tuesday.
117 AM EDT Mon Mar 10 2025 High pressure will settle south of the state over the next couple of days, helping warmer air to surge in Monday and Tuesday. Mins drop into the 30s for everyone, with milder mins on the high ground of south central PA.
215 AM EDT Mon Mar 10 2025 Dry and much warmer weather is taking shape, providing a taste of Spring.
216 AM MDT Mon Mar 10 2025 KEY MESSAGES: - High Wind Warnings are in effect today for strong west to northwest winds as a cold front moves through.
1102 PM MDT Sun Mar 9 2025 - High pressure will bring sunny skies and above normal warmth early this week.
A weak cold front will then move through the area Monday night and early Tuesday. Slightly cooler, although still above average, conditions can be expected behind the boundary Tuesday afternoon. A more impactful system is still on track for late in the workweek when a longwave mid-level trough digs over the western CONUS.
Surface analysis places a cold front extending from the central Gulf northeastward to the Florida First Coast. This was perhaps most noticeable in the favored larger islands, including the RAWS station in Big Pine, where temperatures now stand in the mid 70s, five degrees warmer than observed just before midnight. Numerical weather prediction guidance tends to struggle with peak wind speed magnitudes in this scenario with an intensifying area of low pressure over northern Florida, and elected to nudge wind speeds up a couple of knots for tonight.
The main weather impact for today is a line of thunderstorms and some MVFR to IFR conditions as a cold front sweeps through the region.
621 AM CDT Mon Mar 10 2025 (Today through Tuesday) High pressure in control means the short term forecast period is very quiet. Locations along the coast will be slightly cooler as water temperatures in the mid 60s will keep air temps down. High temperatures go up tomorrow with the ridge to our east and mid to upper 80s are expected along and west of Hwy 281.
GOES-16 visible satellite imagery depicts a robust cold front cutting across the Florida Peninsula from the First coast to the southeast Gulf waters just outside of our CWA. Temperatures along the island chain have risen to near 80 with somewhat moist dewpoints in the low to mid 70s. All eyes are on the cold front progged to pass over the Keys later this afternoon. From synopsis, an intensifying low pressure system along the Gulf Coast will force a cold frontal passage across the Florida Keys coastal waters Monday afternoon and evening. High pressure over the Gulf will slide eastward throughout the work week, with gentle breezes clocking around to the northeast, then east, then to the east to southeast.
910 AM EDT Mon Mar 10 2025 A storm system passing to our south may bring some clouds to the area today, otherwise high pressure will keep conditions dry for the upcoming work week. Expect cloudy conditions to persist through much of the day, with some clearing through the afternoon and evening, as the deepening low pressure system off the Georgia coastline continues east today. Low pressure is moving along the Florida-Georgia line. As the low moves off the southeast coast, the clouds will exit the region leaving us with clear skies tonight. temperatures trending warmer.
Today through early week: An upper low, evident on satellite imagery this morning, will pivot east and lead to a few showers and possibly some thunderstorms early this morning, especially in the northeast, before it moves out by this afternoon.
456 AM MDT Mon Mar 10 2025 - High pressure will dry conditions and above normal warmth early this week.
515 AM EDT Mon Mar 10 2025 High pressure lying across the mid Atlantic region will maintain fair and dry weather through mid week.
539 AM CDT Mon Mar 10 2025 Updated at 525 AM CDT Mon Mar 10 2025 - Warmer this week.
559 AM EDT Mon Mar 10 2025 High pressure lying across the mid Atlantic region will maintain fair and dry weather through mid week.
High pressure will remain in control and keep skies mostly clear, helping lows fall into the mid 30s to lower 40s.
336 PM EDT Mon Mar 10 2025 A cold front will move south across the area Tuesday afternoon.
323 PM CDT Mon Mar 10 2025 - Significantly cooler (15-25 degrees) across the area Tuesday afternoon.
1136 AM EDT Mon Mar 10 2025 * High pressure across the mid Atlantic region will maintain dry, sunny, and mild weather Monday and Tuesday. * Gusty winds ahead of and along a cold front on Tuesday will contribute to an elevated risk of rapid wildfire spread.
High pressure over the Gulf will return onshore flow.
Behind the front will be much cooler and drier air as high pressure moves in.
This afternoon, a weak trough passing to the north brings a 30% chance of showers to northern Baker County and West Central Idaho Mountains.
/29 (Now through Tuesday night) An upper trof over the extreme southeast states moves off into the western Atlantic this evening, with associated cloudiness over much of the forecast area clearing in the process. Subtle upper ridging builds into the region through Tuesday morning then becomes essentially zonal. Lows tonight range from the lower 40s inland to the mid/upper 40s at the coast. Highs on Tuesday will be in the lower to mid 70s, then lows Tuesday night will be mostly in the mid 40s inland to the lower 50s at the coast.
1220 PM EDT Mon Mar 10 2025 A storm system passing to our south may bring some clouds to the area today, otherwise high pressure will keep conditions dry for the upcoming work week. Expect cloudy conditions to persist through much of the day, with some clearing through the afternoon and evening, as the deepening low pressure system off the Georgia coastline continues east today. Low pressure is moving along the Florida-Georgia line. As the low moves off the southeast coast, the clouds will exit the region leaving us with clear skies tonight. temperatures trending warmer.
1221 PM CDT Mon Mar 10 2025 Global guidance continues to show ridging building at the surface and aloft across our CWA. Areas in the Pine Belt could see highs in the low 70s. Today through early week: An upper low, evident on satellite imagery this morning, will pivot east and lead to a few showers and possibly some thunderstorms early this morning, especially in the northeast, before it moves out by this afternoon.
1201 PM CDT Mon Mar 10 2025 (Today through Tuesday) High pressure in control means the short term forecast period is very quiet. Locations along the coast will be slightly cooler as water temperatures in the mid 60s will keep air temps down. High temperatures go up tomorrow with the ridge to our east and mid to upper 80s are expected along and west of Hwy 281.
1144 AM CDT Mon Mar 10 2025 Updated at 1140 AM CDT Mon Mar 10 2025 - Warmer this week.
1226 PM EDT Mon Mar 10 2025 Showers and isolated storms continue through this evening as low pressure moves along the coast and spreads moisture into the forecast area. Upper low is still across eastern Ga, and this will continue tracking slowly off to the east into this evening. Plenty of light rainfall occurring in association with both the upper low and low level isentropic lift. More widespread rainfall will be moving across the forecast area through the afternoon into the evening as the upper low moves through. Instability remains weak, as the cold core of the low moves across, can not completely rule out an isolated clap of thunder through early this evening. Highs may reach the lower 50s.
1130 AM MDT Mon Mar 10 2025 - High pressure will dry conditions and above normal warmth early this week.
Global guidance continues to show ridging building at the surface and aloft across our CWA. Areas in the Pine Belt could see highs in the low 70s. Today through early week: An upper low, evident on satellite imagery this morning, will pivot east and lead to a few showers and possibly some thunderstorms early this morning, especially in the northeast, before it moves out by this afternoon.
With mostly clear skies and a dry atmosphere in place, temperatures have climbed a little faster than anticipated, with highs expected in the low to mid 70s areawide this afternoon.
1256 PM EDT Mon Mar 10 2025 Showers and isolated thunderstorms continue through this evening as low pressure moves along the coast and spreads moisture into the forecast area. Isentropic lift has been relatively weak so far early this morning with showers remaining mostly scattered but as the low lifts northeastward from the Gulf, isentropic lift will deepen with rain becoming widespread and more moderate, especially in the southeastern portion of the forecast area around daybreak. As the upper low shifts over the area, strong lift and a lingering moist air mass will lead to additional widespread showers across the area through the afternoon and into the evening. As the upper low pushes to the east, drier air will shift in as rain tapers off from west to east.
- Cold front tonight will usher in some cooler air into southwest Kansas.
151 PM EDT Mon Mar 10 2025 * High pressure across the mid Atlantic region will maintain dry, sunny, and mild weather Monday and Tuesday. * Gusty winds ahead of and along a cold front on Tuesday will contribute to an elevated risk of rapid wildfire spread.
Various scenarios bring different hazards ranging from freezing rain to heavy snow to blizzard, or some combination.
Breezy winds will gradually diminish into this evening as today's cold front washes out just south of the I-90 corridor. Any road impacts should be limited to the passes as valleys have above freezing road temperatures with only a few rain/snow showers overcoming the downsloping.
635 PM EDT Mon Mar 10 2025 Dry and much warmer weather is taking shape, providing a taste of spring.
709 PM EDT Mon Mar 10 2025 * High pressure across the mid Atlantic region will maintain dry and mild weather into Tuesday. * Gusty winds ahead of and along a cold front on Tuesday will contribute to an elevated risk of rapid wildfire spread.
High pressure will result in mild and dry weather through the early part of the week.
811 PM CDT Mon Mar 10 2025 - Significantly cooler (15-25 degrees) across the area Tuesday afternoon.
825 PM EDT Mon Mar 10 2025 Showers and isolated thunderstorms continue through this evening as low pressure moves along the coast and spreads moisture into the forecast area. Key Message(s): - Clouds and rain are expected to diminish over the next 4-6 hours Center of a closed, upper level low is pushing over the region currently. The deformation zone of this feature is fairly robust, with widespread precipitation noted just on the northwest side of the stacked 700 & 500 hPa closed lows (per SPC Mesoanalysis). Lows should be in the low 40s with most, with some upper 30s possible in our cooler spots.
A cold front pushed through our area earlier this evening now located over the Bahamas and still able to be seen on KBYX radar. Temperatures post cold front are now near 70. From synopsis, fresh to strong northwesterly breezes in the wake of a cold front passage that occurred earlier this evening will gradually slacken through tomorrow. High pressure over the Gulf will slide eastward throughout the work week, with gentle breezes clocking around to the northeast, then east, then to the east to southeast.
637 PM CDT Mon Mar 10 2025 - Significantly cooler (15-25 degrees) across the area Tuesday afternoon.
A quick check of hourly ambient temperatures and comparing them to fcst hourly temperatures shows that our forecast is a little on the warmer side of reality, in some locations as much as 6 degrees too warm. NBM MOS is on the warmer side of all available guidance and has been known to have a warm bias at night with ample radiational cooling conditions expected. With mostly clear skies and a dry atmosphere in place, temperatures have climbed a little faster than anticipated, with highs expected in the low to mid 70s areawide this afternoon.
809 PM EDT Mon Mar 10 2025 * High pressure across the mid Atlantic region will maintain dry and mild weather into Tuesday. * Gusty winds ahead of and along a cold front on Tuesday will contribute to an elevated risk of rapid wildfire spread.
This will result in nighttime temperatures dipping into the low 40s areawide. Sfc ridging will continue across the forecast area heading into tomorrow leading to another day of quiet conditions.
1054 PM EDT Mon Mar 10 2025 * High pressure will maintain dry and mild weather into Tuesday. * Gusty winds ahead of a cold front on Tuesday will contribute to an elevated risk of wildfire spread.
748 PM EDT Mon Mar 10 2025 Dry and much warmer weather is taking shape, providing a taste of spring.
Skies should continue to clear out as much drier and cooler air is advected across the peninsula.
(Today through Wednesday) Upper troughs off the South Carolina coast and off the coast of southern California, with upper ridging over the southern Plains States. At the surface, high pressure over the western Gulf, while low pressure over the Great Lakes had a cold front southwestward into Colorado. High pressure will move eastward over the next 36 hours and extend from near Bermuda to the eastern Gulf by Wednesday evening. The trough off the southern California coast this morning will move to Oklahoma by Wednesday evening.
The high pressure center is expected to move from the Gulf Basin through mid week then cross the FL Peninsula before moving into the W Atlantic late week with low level flow becoming southerly with temps and dew points moderating. The next surface storm system is expected to lift well N of the region through the Great Lakes this weekend with the attendant cold front moving over the local area Sun/Mon with a chance of mainly showers. Strong high pressure will keep gusty NW winds and hazardous choppy seas over E Gulf waters though mid day as a Small Craft Advisory will remain in effect. The high pressure center weakens over the region with light winds and slight seas mid to late week. High pressure building into the region will bring a cool and very dry airmass to the area.
345 AM EDT Tue Mar 11 2025 High pressure builds across the area today behind an exiting area of low pressure. A potent closed mid-upper low will continue shifting increasingly offshore through the period. With plenty of subsidence and dry air in the column, expect a sunny, warm, and dry day to ensue with highs in the low to perhaps mid-70s. Lows should dip into the low-mid 40s, with some normally cooler/sheltered locations possibly dipping into the upper 30s. High pressure to our south on Wednesday will maintain very dry and quiet weather across the region.
247 AM EDT Tue Mar 11 2025 Coastal low pressure will track along and just offshore the coast of the Carolinas through early this morning. High pressure will then build across and offshore the South Atlantic states through mid-week. Highs here will reach of the mid 70s, with highs reaching the lower 70s further east. Overnight lows in the lower 40s are generally expected tonight under clear skies.
1242 AM EDT Tue Mar 11 2025 * High pressure will maintain dry and mild weather into Tuesday. * Gusty winds ahead of a cold front on Tuesday will contribute to an elevated risk of wildfire spread.
1213 AM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025 - Significantly cooler (15-25 degrees) across the area Tuesday afternoon.
259 AM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025 - Cooler temperatures are expected today.
302 AM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025 Updated at 255 AM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025 - Dry and warmer conditions are expected today and Wednesday, with high temperatures reaching the mid 70s.
Key Message(s): - Clear skies and much warmer today. Low pressure continues to accelerate eastward with much drier air in deep layer northwest flow. Upper ridging will strengthen across the area today which will lead to rising temperatures which combined with weak downsloping should push highs into the low to mid 70s. Tonight, 925mb winds strengthen a bit which will prevent ideal radiational cooling conditions as lows expected to drop into the low to mid 40s.
* Gusty winds ahead of a cold front on Tuesday will contribute to an elevated risk of wildfire spread.
225 AM EDT Tue Mar 11 2025 High pressure overtaking the region today will lead to sunny skies, breezy, and warm conditions across the area.
1128 PM MDT Mon Mar 10 2025 - Dry and warm conditions remain in place under high pressure through Wednesday.
(Today through Wednesday) Low pressure works into the Southern Plains by mid-week, gradually strengthening the pressure gradient along the lower Texas coast into Wednesday, increasing southerly winds. Much warmer temperatures arrive on Wednesday with a stronger southerly breeze.
Northerly/ northwesterly winds will remain breezy this morning and early afternoon, but will gradually die down this evening as the pressure gradient between the front and the high remains weakens.
605 AM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025 Updated at 514 AM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025 - Dry and warmer conditions are expected today and Wednesday, with high temperatures reaching the mid 70s.
Travel impacts should remain confined to these higher elevations, as valley roads are above freezing, with only occasional rain or snow showers making it to the surface.
A pleasant morning is occurring for the Florida Keys! GOES-16 Satellite reveals that the clouds that were shading the Lower Keys this morning have retreated to the Straits and are starting to break apart leaving behind mostly sunny conditions. The fresh to strong winds that accompanied the cold front passage from yesterday evening are starting to gradually slacken this morning, now with conditions falling just below Small Craft Advisory level. From synopsis, fresh northwesterly breezes in the wake of the cold frontal passage yesterday evening will continue to gradually slacken thorugh this afternoon. High pressure over the Gulf will slide eastward throughout the work week, with gentle to moderate breezes clocking around to the northeast, then east, and then to southeast.
651 AM EDT Tue Mar 11 2025 High pressure builds across the area today behind an exiting area of low pressure. A potent closed mid-upper low will continue shifting increasingly offshore through the period. With plenty of subsidence and dry air in the column, expect a sunny, warm, and dry day to ensue with highs in the low to perhaps mid-70s. Lows should dip into the low-mid 40s, with some normally cooler/sheltered locations possibly dipping into the upper 30s. High pressure to our south on Wednesday will maintain very dry and quiet weather across the region.
513 AM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025 - Light snow will move along the international border today with slightly cooler temperatures across the region this afternoon.
That being said, dewpoint temperatures should still remain dry enough that given the clear skies this afternoon, and the WAA in play, highs should climb well into the upper 70's even the low 80's for some communities.
627 AM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025 - Cooler temperatures are expected today.
There will be slightly cooler temperatures across the region this afternoon.
616 AM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025 (Today through Wednesday) Low pressure works into the Southern Plains by mid-week, gradually strengthening the pressure gradient along the lower Texas coast into Wednesday, increasing southerly winds. Much warmer temperatures arrive on Wednesday with a stronger southerly breeze.
1018 AM EDT Tue Mar 11 2025 High pressure builds across the area today behind an exiting area of low pressure. Low pressure continues to slowly push offshore, and sunshine is really starting to come in now. A potent closed mid-upper low will continue shifting increasingly offshore through the period. With plenty of subsidence and dry air in the column, expect a sunny, warm, and dry day to ensue with highs in the low to perhaps mid-70s. Lows should dip into the low-mid 40s, with some normally cooler/sheltered locations possibly dipping into the upper 30s. High pressure to our south on Wednesday will maintain very dry and quiet weather across the region.