Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
(Today through Sunday) Ensembles and global model solutions depict a rather complicated synoptic pattern across muCh of the CONUS this weekend, but with strong ridging holding remaining in place across the SE CONUS, the Florida peninsula and the east Gulf waters. As the ridge moves over the state, winds across the area become lighter and allowing for sea breezes to develop along both Atlantic and Gulf coasts in the afternoon hours. Morning lows will warm up a bit from the upper 40s to mid 50s last night into the low-mid 60s Saturday night into Sunday.
Upper level flow will transition more westerly for Saturday with warmer temperatures creeping up across the Panhandles. Early Sunday morning a quick moving cold front will push through with breezy north winds.
A ridge of high pressure will work into the region today behind the departing cold front. While rain is likely everywhere Sunday morning, the northern periphery of the low-level moisture axis struggles to nose any further north than the Lower Ohio River Valley before being shunted eastward by the cold front.
Temperatures will drop into the low to mid 40s by sunrise, which will be noticeably warmer than what we had this morning. This is going to play into RH values slipping into the low to mid 20s and with winds gusting 20-25 mph, we're likely going to be close to marginal fire weather conditions.
925 PM MDT Fri Mar 21 2025 - Elevated to near-critical fire weather conditions ahead of a cold front Saturday afternoon.
Surface analysis this afternoon depicts a low pressure center over the central Great Lakes, with its cold front now having passed to the south and east of the WFO MPX coverage area. As skies clear out tonight and winds drop off with the center of a small high pressure airmass moving atop the region in the wake of the cold frontal passage, lows tonight will plunge to the teens and lower 20s. Highs will rebound to the 40s to mid 50s on Saturday as winds swing around to southerly on the backside of the departing high and in advance of a well-organized low pressure system.
A cold front heading southward across the eastern central Great Plains, is forecast to move across the area later this afternoon, helping to establish a light NW-N flow. Afternoon dewpoints should be reduced into the upper 20s for a couple of hours this afternoon, with corresponding relative humidity values in the low/mid 20s percent range.
18z water vapor imagery this afternoon shows a deep but progressive trough axis extending from the Hudson Bay down to the Texas Panhandle, moisture streaming in ahead of a trough over the PNW and broad ridging over the eastern third of the US. Overnight tonight and into Saturday morning, the 850mb ridge axis will begin to slide to the east, shifting low-level winds back to the south. This should help to advect in a bit warmer air for the day as temperatures top out near 70 degrees. Isentropic ascent and moisture advection ahead of this trough axis will become best across far eastern Kansas and into Missouri. By Sunday, expect another breezy afternoon as afternoon temperatures top out in the low to mid 60s.
Farther east, winds are a bit stronger with temperatures remaining in the low 30s. Much of the upcoming week is dominated by upper flow from the northwest before upper ridging arrives toward the end of the work week.
This ridge center will slowly meander/shift EWD through the short term to into the Atlantic, E of the FL coast with zonal flow aloft. With that said, as our airmass moderates, look for slightly warmer temps today, tonight, and again on Sunday.
At the surface, a cold front moved through the forecast area today and resulted in breezy northwest winds. As a result, slightly warmer afternoon highs (low 70s) are expected to start the weekend.
19z/2pm surface analysis shows a cold front dropping southward out of the Northern Plains. Once the showers pass and/or dissipate overnight, gusty W/NW winds will persist through the remainder of the night as CAA brings temperatures back down into the lower to middle 30s across much of the area by dawn Saturday. High pressure will build into the Midwest on Saturday, providing dry weather, lighter winds, and seasonable high temperatures in the lower to middle 50s.
414 AM EDT Sat Mar 22 2025 A weak cold front will cross the area this morning with high pressure briefly building in tonight. Another cold front will follow, moving through Sunday afternoon and evening. There is also a weak surface cold front associated with this system that will pass through. Temperatures will only be slightly cooler than yesterday, mainly across the northern half of the forecast area. High pressure will pass across the area tonight. A more defined cold front will track into the forecast area during Sunday afternoon. A cold front will be in the process of moving through the area Sunday night with any lingering rainfall occurring across portions of northern Kentucky, central and southern Ohio.
Low temperatures will range from the mid 30s in the northeast to the low 40s for the rest of the area.
112 AM EDT Sat Mar 22 2025 - Rain showers will turn to snow showers behind a sharp cold front from about 5-9 pm this evening as temperatures plummet below freezing.
The net result to sensible conditions will be a re-establishing (breezy) southerly flow regime on Saturday, as cyclogenesis commences across the High Plains. This feature will offer slightly cooler conditions (mid-60s to 70) in its wake on Sunday, primarily across northwestern/far northern Oklahoma.
Highs will range from the mid 70s along the coast to the lower 90s over the Rio Grande Plains. Tonight, increasing moisture and a LLJ of 30 knots will lead to overcast skies overnight into early Sunday morning, warming lows from the low to mid 60s. However, the more southwesterly component from 925-850mb will increase WAA and allow for highs to climb a few degrees warmer, ranging from around 80 along the coast to the mid 90s over the Rio Grande Plains.
316 AM CDT Sat Mar 22 2025 - Elevated fire conditions can be expected further this afternoon - Cold front tonight will bring breezy northwest winds on Sunday - Warm and dry through at least this week Lee troughing will continue to strengthen today bringing breezy southerly winds to western Kansas. A cold front is then progged to move through the area tonight shifting winds to the north. Cooler temperatures are expected tomorrow with highs in the 60s and skies becoming mostly clear. Breezy northerly winds are expected behind the aforementioned cold front becoming light and shifting back to the south tomorrow night. The remainder of the forecast remains dry with upper level ridging building over the Rockies. These disturbances will also shift winds to the north periodically but quickly shift back to the south as lee troughing redevelops.
648 AM EDT Sat Mar 22 2025 A weak cold front will cross the area this morning with high pressure briefly building in tonight. Another cold front will follow, moving through Sunday afternoon and evening. There is also a weak surface cold front associated with this system that will pass through. Temperatures will only be slightly cooler than yesterday, mainly across the northern half of the forecast area. High pressure will pass across the area tonight. A more defined cold front will track into the forecast area during Sunday afternoon. A cold front will be in the process of moving through the area Sunday night with any lingering rainfall occurring across portions of northern Kentucky, central and southern Ohio.
Over the lower elevations, generally variable thin high cloudiness prevailed. As for temperatures, thanks to the cold front, we should see temperatures around average values. Upper ridge moves into the area, leading to dry conditions for the majority of the period. Still too far out to be certain of any details, but it does look like winds pick up ahead of the trough.
Moisture return across eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas will initially be limited as a warm front lifts north across Texas during the day.
514 AM MDT Sat Mar 22 2025 KEY MESSAGES: - A low pressure system will bring some light rain or snow to the region today. WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: A low pressure system will move across the region from the west today with occasional rain or snow spreading east.
A strong storm can't be ruled out with this activity with the highest chances of this occurring over the northern portion of the area.
625 AM CDT Sat Mar 22 2025 - Red Flag Warning in effect today for all of western and north central Nebraska - Cold front moves across the area Saturday, briefly cooling temperatures on Sunday, along with slight precip chances - Winds increase Saturday afternoon and evening The main concern in the short term will be the cold front moving into the area Saturday with winds increasing by Saturday afternoon along with a chance for light precip in the evening. Winds will also switch towards evening from the southwest to the northwest as the cold front advances. An upper level ridge will build in from the west and keep dry and warm conditions through much of the week.
539 AM CDT Sat Mar 22 2025 - Elevated fire conditions can be expected further this afternoon - Cold front tonight will bring breezy northwest winds on Sunday - Warm and dry through at least this week Lee troughing will continue to strengthen today bringing breezy southerly winds to western Kansas. A cold front is then progged to move through the area tonight shifting winds to the north. Cooler temperatures are expected tomorrow with highs in the 60s and skies becoming mostly clear. Breezy northerly winds are expected behind the aforementioned cold front becoming light and shifting back to the south tomorrow night. The remainder of the forecast remains dry with upper level ridging building over the Rockies. These disturbances will also shift winds to the north periodically but quickly shift back to the south as lee troughing redevelops.
pdf Adjusted daytime temperatures down a couple degrees, other than that, forecast is on track with clear skies and high daytime temperatures in the low to mid 70s. Following a chilly start, high pressure remains in control today with light and variable winds under sunny skies as temps rebound close to normal levels with highs in the lower to middle 70s over inland areas, while a weak sea breeze develops along the Atlantic Coast with highs around 70F at the Atlantic beaches. High pressure builds eastward into the Western Atlantic with mainly clear skies expected across SE GA, while some increase in high clouds will be possible across NE FL during the overnight hours.
Clouds will move in from the southeast on Saturday night along with strengthening winds, keeping lows in the high 50s to low 60s. This will change as the atmosphere begins to destabilize in the afternoon ahead of an incoming cold front. Warm temperatures will support brewing instability ahead of the cold front. Conditions will stay dry for the next several days as an amplified trough/ridge pair begins to set up over the western CONUS.
733 AM EDT Sat Mar 22 2025 (Today through Sunday) Ensembles and global model solutions depict a rather complicated synoptic pattern across muCh of the CONUS this weekend, but with strong ridging holding remaining in place across the SE CONUS, the Florida peninsula and the east Gulf waters. As the ridge moves over the state, winds across the area become lighter and allowing for sea breezes to develop along both Atlantic and Gulf coasts in the afternoon hours.
426 AM CDT Sat Mar 22 2025 - Red Flag Warning in effect today for all of western and north central Nebraska - Cold front moves across the area Saturday, briefly cooling temperatures on Sunday, along with slight precip chances - Winds increase Saturday afternoon and evening The main concern in the short term will be the cold front moving into the area Saturday with winds increasing by Saturday afternoon along with a chance for light precip in the evening. Winds will also switch towards evening from the southwest to the northwest as the cold front advances. An upper level ridge will build in from the west and keep dry and warm conditions through much of the week.
(Tonight) Sunny, warm, and dry conditions will persist through the remainder of the afternoon across the Tennessee Valley, with high pressure centered over the lower Ohio Valley. This ridge will gradually slide ESE into the Carolinas overnight, veering winds to a light southerly direction. We'll maintain clear/dry conditions under the influence of this ridge and in this dry air mass, temperatures should be able to drop back into the low to mid 40s in most locations (with a few upper 30s in sheltered valleys in northeast Alabama).
- Warm and dry for much of the week with upper level ridge over the area.
226 PM EDT Sat Mar 22 2025 A weak cold front will cross the area today, with high pressure briefly building in tonight. Another cold front will follow, moving through Sunday afternoon and evening. A weak surface cold front will pass through the region today. Temperatures will only be slightly cooler than yesterday, mainly across the northern half of the forecast area. High pressure will pass across the area tonight. A more defined cold front will track into the forecast area during Sunday afternoon. A cold front will be in the process of moving through the area Sunday night with any lingering rainfall occurring across portions of northern Kentucky, central and southern Ohio.
1102 AM EDT Sat Mar 22 2025 A weak cold front will cross the area today, with high pressure briefly building in tonight. Another cold front will follow, moving through Sunday afternoon and evening. A weak surface cold front will pass through the region today. Temperatures will only be slightly cooler than yesterday, mainly across the northern half of the forecast area. High pressure will pass across the area tonight. A more defined cold front will track into the forecast area during Sunday afternoon. A cold front will be in the process of moving through the area Sunday night with any lingering rainfall occurring across portions of northern Kentucky, central and southern Ohio.
Bands of NW-SE oriented showers along a cold front will continue across central and southern portions of our area this morning as a cold front drifts slowly southward. Snow levels remain above valley floors, with local light snowfall amounts in the more persistent bands across the higher elevations.
(Tonight through Sunday night) Some low level moisture has finally returned to the lower Texas coast, resulting in some persistent cloud cover and streamer showers working north towards southeastern Cameron County.
Currently we are seeing mainly clear skies with plenty of sunshine with a high pressure just off the west coast of Florida. This high pressure will be overhead tomorrow with another colder morning with lows in the 40's before we see a very quick warm up on Sunday with highs in the low to mid 80's.
In the short term the weather will remain rather quiet and benign as weak high pressure slowly slides east further across the Atlantic.
As the nocturnal LLJ increases well ahead of the system, WAA will lead to the development of showers along a trailing warm front across Missouri and southern Illinois tonight. resulting in highs mostly in the lower to middle 50s. Barnes Zonal flow will dominate the CONUS for the next several days before a deep upper low comes onshore along the West Coast and induces downstream ridging across the Plains/Midwest by the end of the week.
(Through Sunday) A splendid Saturday with highs in the 70s, cooler near the coast with the sea-breeze. Another clear and dry night on tap with lows toward the cooler envelope of the guidance, mainly in the lower to middle 40s, which will inhibit the frost we saw on Saturday morning across portions of the region. Highs moderate into the upper 70s to around 80 on Sunday as high pressure moves further east and the flow becomes more southerly.
1232 PM CDT Sat Mar 22 2025 - Red Flag Warning in effect today for all of western and north central Nebraska - Cold front moves across the area Saturday, briefly cooling temperatures on Sunday, along with slight precip chances - Winds increase Saturday afternoon and evening The main concern in the short term will be the cold front moving into the area Saturday with winds increasing by Saturday afternoon along with a chance for light precip in the evening. Winds will also switch towards evening from the southwest to the northwest as the cold front advances. An upper level ridge will build in from the west and keep dry and warm conditions through much of the week.
1212 PM CDT Sat Mar 22 2025 (Rest of Today) High pressure in control of the sensible weather across the Tennessee Valley today, making for a beautiful and sunny early Spring day. Model soundings show a very dry profile, indicative of strong subsidence from the ridge. Due to the ample sunshine and southerly winds, temperatures will respond, with highs returning to the mid to upper 60s, with a few locations reaching the lower 70s.
Two, as noted on the sounding and on model cross sections, most of this moisture is in the mid and upper levels, with the lower levels remaining dry. With all that said, the most likely outcome is light precip in the higher terrain and either zero or trace amounts (sprinkles) in the deserts, which is reflected well in the going forecast.
Both of these go until 6 PM this evening with about 1 to 4 inches of additional snowfall expected in the advisory areas with the higher end of that above 7000 feet.
(Rest of Today) High pressure in control of the sensible weather across the Tennessee Valley today, making for a beautiful and sunny early Spring day. Model soundings show a very dry profile, indicative of strong subsidence from the ridge. Due to the ample sunshine and southerly winds, temperatures will respond, with highs returning to the mid to upper 60s, with a few locations reaching the lower 70s.
Farther south under the influence of mostly zonal westerly flow aloft, the system's cold front will stretch out and serve as a focus for moisture pooling and thunderstorm development tomorrow afternoon.
1214 PM EDT Sat Mar 22 2025 *We'll have mostly cloudy skies today with scattered rain showers moving from west to east across the area through this afternoon ahead of a cold front.
pdf High pressure over the area today, creating mostly clear skies and daytime highs into the low to mid 70s inland with temperatures slightly cooler along the coast as the sea-breeze develops. Overnight lows will be slightly warmer than the night before, with temperatures in the low to mid 40s inland, staying slightly warmer along the coast.
Expect winds to continue to increase across the whole area through the afternoon as high pressure moves away and low pressure starts to develop across the High Plains. Expecting the combination of warmer temperatures today and the winds to still offer some low potential for wildfires this afternoon, but below Red Flag conditions. Clouds will move in from the southeast on Saturday night along with strengthening winds, keeping lows in the high 50s to low 60s. This will change as the atmosphere begins to destabilize in the afternoon ahead of an incoming cold front. Warm temperatures will support brewing instability ahead of the cold front. Conditions will stay dry for the next several days as an amplified trough/ridge pair begins to set up over the western CONUS.
We can expect this to also lead to warmer conditions tomorrow thanks to WAA off of the Gulf.
The current forecast is on track with gusty southwest winds, warmer daytime temperatures and a few high level clouds streaming overhead.
High temperatures on Sunday look to warm to the lower 50s north to near 60 south.
As the ridge moves over the state, winds across the area become lighter and allowing for sea breezes to develop along both Atlantic and Gulf coasts in the afternoon hours. Morning lows will warm up a bit from the upper 40s to mid 50s last night into the low-mid 60s Saturday night into Sunday.
Look for a warming trend over the next few days as high pressure builds over the area.
The current forecast is on track with gusty southwest winds, warmer daytime tempertures and a few high level clouds streaming overhead.
- Breezy and slightly cooler conditions on Sunday behind a morning cold front.
430 PM CDT Sat Mar 22 2025 (Tonight) Sunny, warm, and dry conditions will persist through the remainder of the afternoon across the Tennessee Valley, with high pressure centered over the lower Ohio Valley. This ridge will gradually slide ESE into the Carolinas overnight, veering winds to a light southerly direction. We'll maintain clear/dry conditions under the influence of this ridge and in this dry air mass, temperatures should be able to drop back into the low to mid 40s in most locations (with a few upper 30s in sheltered valleys in northeast Alabama).
At 8 PM MDT a warm front extended from western WA to southeast OR.
902 PM EDT Sat Mar 22 2025 A sweeping cold front ushers in cooler temperatures to end the weekend. Upper troughing and short waves keep cooler temperatures and shower chances elevated through midweek.
- Gusty winds will develop behind a cold front over the plains overnight.
This will allow temps to drop into the high 30s and low 40s. Despite the cooler temps frost is not anticipated due to the lingering dry air.
716 PM EDT Sat Mar 22 2025 (Through Sunday) A splendid Saturday with highs in the 70s, cooler near the coast with the sea-breeze. Another clear and dry night on tap with lows toward the cooler envelope of the guidance, mainly in the lower to middle 40s, which will inhibit the frost we saw on Saturday morning across portions of the region. Highs moderate into the upper 70s to around 80 on Sunday as high pressure moves further east and the flow becomes more southerly.
625 PM CDT Sat Mar 22 2025 - Warmer and more humid conditions expected today and Sunday.
(Through Tonight) Thunderstorms have begun to develop in northeast Oklahoma as a warm front moves north across the area. the nose of a jet segment approaches from the northwest and low-level flow increases into the warm frontal zone. (Tomorrow through Saturday) Fire weather will be a concern again tomorrow, with a cold front ushering in drier air once again to much of the region and also leading to gusty winds shifting to the northwest during the day.
A cold front will bring widespread rain chances for the area during the afternoon and evening Sunday. Still looks like some strong storms will be possible with the front with the highest chances along and west of I-65, wind and hail will be the main threats with anything strong.
912 PM EDT Sat Mar 22 2025 High pressure will build over the region tonight.
621 PM CDT Sat Mar 22 2025 (Tonight through Sunday night) Some low level moisture has finally returned to the lower Texas coast, resulting in some persistent cloud cover and streamer showers working north towards southeastern Cameron County.
Water vapor imagery highlights a broad subtropical ridge over the Caribbean, where dry and stable air dominates the basin. A broad belt of benign cirrus clouds cover the Gulf of America out ahead of the upper-level trough.
832 PM EDT Sat Mar 22 2025 A sweeping cold front ushers in cooler temperatures to end the weekend. Upper troughing and short waves keep cooler temperatures and shower chances elevated through midweek.
The ridge will also keep pressure gradients relaxed across the area with mainly light SE winds. Model solutions remain in fair agreement in migrating the aforementioned trough/low complex eastward, which drags the frontal boundary into northern Florida by Monday. This will erode and push the high pressure into the west Atlantic, with winds over SoFlo veering to a more SSE flow and increasing to around 10mph. This flow will help advect additional moisture into the area ahead of the approaching front, but the ridge will hold in place the dry conditions for one more day.
(Today through Monday) Cold front moving quickly through the central plains this morning. A short wave will flow through the base of the upper trough keeping storms going through much of the day Monday with the continued marginal risk that one or two of these become strong/severe.