Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
TODAY & TONIGHT: A slightly cooler day ahead! Taking a look at satellite imagery, mostly clear conditions have returned to the area with a few lingering areas of stratus west of the James River. From here, slightly cooler temperatures are ahead as a combination of northerly to northeasterly surface winds and lingering areas of wildfire smoke aloft keep our temperatures in the 80s to low 90s with the warmest conditions south of U. This developing activity will likely progress to the east- southeast with the boundary and inverted trough during the overnight hours before exiting our area by Wednesday morning.
328 AM EDT Tue Jul 29 2025 - Hot/humid today, chance of storms through Wed night - Cooler, less humid late week - Hot/humid today, chance of storms through Wed night Regional radar shows an MCS moving eastward across Wisconsin with two distinct parts. A southward moving cold front tonight will reach the southern cwa and provide a track for another potential round of convection late tonight through Wednesday night across the southern cwa and we have 30-40 percent chance of storms for this feature.
Surface temperatures across the region range from the low 70s to the low 90s this afternoon. Current max heat index readings are shown to be a few degrees cooler Tuesday but will take another look overnight. - Low Rain Chances Tuesday Night/Wednesday A cold front pushes through the region Tuesday night into Wednesday with 30-40% POPs in the forecast. - Dry Weather Dominates Late Week and Weekend Lower dew points are on the way as high pressure settles in across the region later this week and into the weekend. The I-94 terminals have the highest chance at seeing IFR and perhaps LIFR overnight due to earlier rainfall adding to the already abundant low level moisture.
With the S/SW flow aloft continuing along the ridge, isolated to scattered thunderstorms will remain being our popular threat through tomorrow during afternoon and evening hours over central OR to the eastern mountains. 10 inches, thanks to the upper ridge and thermal trough.
919 PM PDT Mon Jul 28 2025 A stable weather pattern will continue across the region with a trough to the north and high pressure to the south. This will continue to be the case, with the marine layer becoming lower and thinner for the next couple of days as high pressure continues to build in stronger.
624 AM EDT Tue Jul 29 2025 High pressure remains in control today with hot temperatures under mostly sunny skies; Heat Advisories are in effect for portions of the Southern Tier and Northeastern Pennsylvania.
- Hot and dry conditions persist across the lower elevation through most of the forecast period. Flow around high pressure to our east and a trough to our west has allowed moisture to slowly start increasing across the forecast area. The HRRR and NAMNEST are also indicating some convection may fire over the higher terrain across remaining portions of the CWA this afternoon. High temperatures will remain on the warm side, maybe a little cooler where the cloud cover is thicker.
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: An upper ridge will be building across the Rocky Mountains then eastward through the week. Past midweek with the ridge shifting eastward, southwest flow returns to the upper levels, along with the monsoonal moisture feed at the lower levels. Throughout the period, even with the building ridge, temperatures will remains slightly below normal, but still tick up a few degrees.
636 AM EDT Tue Jul 29 2025 - Hot/humid today, chance of storms through Wed night - Cooler, less humid late week - Hot/humid today, chance of storms through Wed night Regional radar shows an MCS moving eastward across Wisconsin with two distinct parts. A southward moving cold front tonight will reach the southern cwa and provide a track for another potential round of convection late tonight through Wednesday night across the southern cwa and we have 30-40 percent chance of storms for this feature.
606 AM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025 - Cooler air from the overnight storms should keep peak heat indices in the 95 to 100 range this afternoon for areas along/north of I-80. - Another round of strong to severe storms are possible late tonight into Wednesday morning as a cold front moves into the area. - Pattern change mid to late week to usher in cooler, more seasonable and drier conditions. Rain cooled air should keep areas along/north of the I-80 corridor a tad cooler today with peak afternoon heat indices of 95-100. But this may bring some heavy rain and possible severe weather along the associated cold front push on Wed. Veering boundary layer profiles to the northeast Wed night to really begin the cooler temp draw, with lows by Thu morning in the lower 60s or even some upper 50s.
A rebuilding Atlantic ridge will build westward across South Florida during the next few days, which will slightly bump wind speeds up.
612 AM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025 - Very hot conditions will continue Tuesday and Wednesday underneath a high pressure ridge. - From Wednesday to the end of the week, increasing rain chances are expected as a weak trough arrives and lingers within an airmass of deep tropical moisture over the northern Gulf prompting a Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall.
555 AM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025 - Warmer temperatures mid-week.
620 AM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025 Upper ridging will gradually loosen its grip on the region as we head through the rest of this week, with weak upper troughing impinging on the area by the weekend.
Today is the transition day as the ridge axis is across the region with a rather light flow in place. The large heat dome and stacked ridging continues from the Great Lakes into the Deep South with dangerously high heat index values again today locally and have issued an extreme heat warning for apparent Ts over 113 from around I-4 Nward today and 108+ in counties just S of there from noon to 7pm. Fairly weak high pressure will remain over the region with generally light winds and seas except near any thunderstorms that move over the water.
Updated at 239 AM PDT Tue Jul 29 2025 - Quiet pattern remains with temps below normal - Breezy afternoons and tranquil nights through this week (Today and tonight) Quiet weather continues through this week as the persistent trough pattern off the West Coast refuses to subside, thanks in part to a blocking upper level high pressure to our east.
411 AM PDT Tue Jul 29 2025 Updated at 239 AM PDT Tue Jul 29 2025 - Quiet pattern remains with temps below normal - Breezy afternoons and tranquil nights through this week (Today and tonight) Quiet weather continues through this week as the persistent trough pattern off the West Coast refuses to subside, thanks in part to a blocking upper level high pressure to our east.
The warm, moist airmass and steepening mid-level lapse rates as cooler mid-level air moves into the region will support MLCAPE of 1500-2000+ J/kg over southern SD into northeastern WY. The areas with the best chances to see convection will be over the higher terrain of the Black Hills and northeastern WY where upslope enhancement will occur thanks to the easterly winds. Cooler conditions continue through the mid to late week as northwest flow establishes itself over the region and an upper level ridge builds into the western US. Upper level waves riding along the ridge will continue to periodically impact the region.
1241 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025 - Warmer temperatures mid-week.
Temperatures early this afternoon were in the mid to upper 90s and are expected to remain through the afternoon with not much relief in the overnight hours as the lows drop to the mid 70s across the interior and near 80 along the coastal areas. At the upper levels, a ridge of high pressure continues to dominate the SE US, while an upper level low that was over the Caribbean will move westward into the SW Gulf by Wednesday. Temperatures will remain slightly above normal the next two days with afternoon highs ranging from the lower 90s across the metro and mid to upper 90s over inland and SW FL.
2) Upper level ridging will remain over the region though fluctuate some in position over the next several days. WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Upper ridging will continue over the region this week, though fluctuate in position. Currently, NE Montana sits on the front quadrant of the ridge with NW upper flow. Ridging late week will shift east allowing southwest upper flow to return with more widespread thunderstorm chances making a return.
212 PM EDT Tue Jul 29 2025 High pressure remains in control today with hot temperatures under mostly sunny skies; Heat Advisories are in effect for portions of the Southern Tier and Northeastern Pennsylvania.
Stay weather aware! - Generally cooler than normal temperatures through the week. While the heavy rain has avoided the higher profile burn scars in southern Montana and northern Wyoming so far this week (the Elk, Remington, and Robertson Draw), these burn scars will be in play today. Wednesday looks to be a bit quieter day as brief ridging builds over the region. As flow turns more westerly, the PWATs decrease some, and temperatures could trend a bit warmer.
- More unsettled weather expected for the heading into the weekend Current water vapor analysis shows deeply entrenched 500hpa high pressure over the southern CONUS with anti-cyclonic upper flow across much of the upper midwest.
Chances for afternoon and evening mountain thunderstorms this week, with the highest chances overnight tonight through Wednesday evening along the Sierra/southern Cascades and northeast foothills.
(This evening through Wednesday) The stagnant pattern for West Texas will persist through Wednesday with the TUTT train continuing well to our south and a developing blocking ridge along the spine of the Rockies. Turning to the mid levels, the subtropical high is centered over north Texas and with the interaction of the developing ridge, the high, and the weakness in between known as the monsoon, a deformation region extends from Sonora into eastern Colorado and northeast into the Great Lakes.
Afternoon heat indices in the low 100s up to 107 degrees expected to continue this afternoon and once again Wednesday afternoon.
1243 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025 A 598-599 decameter upper level ridge was centered over the region this Tuesday morning. By late week, the upper ridge is anticipated to retrograde into the Srn Plains/Srn Rockies.
- Hottest ambient temperatures continue midweek but the drier air helps to limit peak heat indices, and the overall heat risk - Higher humidity levels with low (20-40%) rain and storm chances returns late in the week through the weekend (Tonight through Wednesday night) A 598 dam subtropical ridge centered not far to our north and a 200 mb TUTT low southwest of the Rio Grande Valley will help to yield some of the driest air of the Summer so far across our region from today into Wednesday. Tonight should feel a bit more refreshing than most summer nights with overnight lows dipping as low as the mid 60s in the Hill Country to the low 70s.
343 PM EDT Tue Jul 29 2025 - Fair weather this evening with Smoke possible early Wednesday - Chance of storms Wednesday into Wednesday night - Cooler and drier through latter half of the week - Fair weather this evening with Smoke possible early Wednesday Temperatures this afternoon remain slightly above normal yet cooler than yesterday. Any smoke will be short lived as an upper level trough moves in tomorrow. - Chance of storms Wednesday into Wednesday night The upper level wave stemming from a large upper level low over Hudson Bay will swing through the upper Midwest Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday evening.
Slightly warmer weather will occur today, with not much change through the rest of the week.
Flow with this ridge is very weak so shear profiles over the next several days will be very low. Thanks to large scale ridging and a lack of instability, AI and ML products for severe storms are not cropping up for our area through the next 6 days with a broad swath of potential cropping up by next Tuesday, however this is more due to ridge breakdown potential towards the end of the period and indicative of high uncertainty in location as the swath is across the entire CONUS east of the Rockies.
132 PM EDT Tue Jul 29 2025 - Hot/humid today, chance of storms through Wed night - Cooler, less humid late week - Hot/humid today, chance of storms through Wed night Regional radar shows an MCS moving eastward across Wisconsin with two distinct parts. A southward moving cold front tonight will reach the southern cwa and provide a track for another potential round of convection late tonight through Wednesday night across the southern cwa and we have 30-40 percent chance of storms for this feature.
Another round of late afternoon and evening thunderstorms is expected today, and again Wednesday, more in Oregon than in Idaho, as the offshore upper trough continues to circulate moisture mostly into Oregon.
1233 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025 Upper ridging will gradually loosen its grip on the region as we head through the rest of this week, with weak upper troughing impinging on the area by the weekend.
In addition, with the better shear and stronger winds remaining north of these complexes, severe weather chances looks to be on the low side.
- Thunderstorms will develop along a slow-moving cold front Wednesday, bringing a risk of strong storms and torrential rainfall.
The weak troughing, onshore winds and marine layer will continue to keep temps running on the cool side of normal with coastal drizzle Weds am. 12z nam and gfs models keep the trend of West Coast trough in place through at least the end of the work week. (Today and tonight) Quiet weather continues through this week as the persistent trough pattern off the West Coast refuses to subside, thanks in part to a blocking upper level high pressure to our east.
- Cooler conditions and low shower and thunderstorm chances late this week through the weekend. (Through tonight) Hot and humid conditions persist this afternoon under upper level ridge centered over northeast and southeast OK. (Tomorrow through Tuesday) Ridge will remain in place for another day Wednesday with widespread HI again reaching 100-110, and some locations in eastern OK and the Arkansas R Valley seeing ambient temps near 100. Likely will see just enough weakening of the ridge for a little more coverage of afternoon showers and thunderstorms over the favored terrain of western AR and far southeast OK.
148 PM EDT Tue Jul 29 2025 High pressure will remain draped across our region Tuesday while maintaining mainly dry weather and mid-summer heat and humidity.
This afternoon, the synoptic pattern was characterized by a stout upper high over the Southern Plains, while ridging was attempting to build over the western CONUS in response to a deep low off the coast of British Columbia. The remainder of the work week is relatively consistent, forecast wise, with northwesterly flow dominating as the upper ridge slowly drifts over the Northern Rockies. The upper ridge axis is progged to extend across the forecast area and into the southern Canadian Prairies to start the weekend, with temperatures slowly warming back closer to normal, in the upper 70s to mid 80s.
- Cooler to near normal temperatures and dry weather is expected Wednesday through the rest of the week. As high pressure ridging pushes in from Canada today, observations show a broad cold front progressively moving through the Upper Peninsula today, with flow generally becoming northerly behind the frontal boundary and remaining generally southerly ahead of it. Expect these temperatures to remain throughout the rest of the day as diurnal cu develops ahead of the cold front boundary pushing through the U.
1209 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025 - Cooler air from the overnight storms should keep peak heat indices in the 95 to 100 range this afternoon for areas along/north of I-80. - Another round of strong to severe storms are possible late tonight into Wednesday morning as a cold front moves into the area. - Pattern change mid to late week to usher in cooler, more seasonable and drier conditions. Rain cooled air should keep areas along/north of the I-80 corridor a tad cooler today with peak afternoon heat indices of 95-100. But this may bring some heavy rain and possible severe weather along the associated cold front push on Wed. Veering boundary layer profiles to the northeast Wed night to really begin the cooler temp draw, with lows by Thu morning in the lower 60s or even some upper 50s.
At the surface, low pressure will deepen through the day across eastern Colorado and northwest Kansas, with an associated warm front lifting into far southwest Nebraska by late afternoon. The greatest instability (SBCAPEs 3500-4500 J/kg) north of the warm front across southwest into central Nebraska, along with the best PWATs (above the 90th percentile climo) in the pre- convective environment. Stratus develop in the wake of this system late tonight through Wednesday morning, with a much cooler day due to persistent cloudiness, with highs remaining in the mid to upper 70s. Showers and storms may move in from the higher terrain Wednesday evening, mainly west of Highway 83 overnight.
On Wednesday and later this week, the ridge axis shifts southward with a SW to W flow setting up. Fairly weak high pressure will remain over the region with generally light winds and seas, except near any thunderstorms that move over the water.
(This evening through Wednesday night) A broad upper level ridge is vaguely centered near the OK/AR region and is expanded across the nearly the entire southern half of the country. That puts the southeastern US right on the southeastern periphery of the high.
652 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025 (Tonight through Wednesday night) A 598 dam subtropical ridge centered not far to our north and a 200 mb TUTT low southwest of the Rio Grande Valley will help to yield some of the driest air of the Summer so far across our region from today into Wednesday. Tonight should feel a bit more refreshing than most summer nights with overnight lows dipping as low as the mid 60s in the Hill Country to the low 70s.
747 PM EDT Tue Jul 29 2025 - Fair weather this evening with Smoke possible early Wednesday - Chance of storms Wednesday into Wednesday night - Cooler and drier through latter half of the week - Fair weather this evening with Smoke possible early Wednesday Temperatures this afternoon remain slightly above normal yet cooler than yesterday. Any smoke will be short lived as an upper level trough moves in tomorrow. - Chance of storms Wednesday into Wednesday night The upper level wave stemming from a large upper level low over Hudson Bay will swing through the upper Midwest Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday evening.
Today into tomorrow, S/SW flow aloft continues along the upper ridge thus keeping chances enhanced for isolated to scattered thunderstorms during afternoon and evening hours over south-central OR to the eastern mountains.
637 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025 (This evening through Wednesday night) A broad upper level ridge is vaguely centered near the OK/AR region and is expanded across the nearly the entire southern half of the country. That puts the southeastern US right on the southeastern periphery of the high.
Weak high pressure ridging across south Florida and into the eastern gulf will keep a light southwest wind around 10 knots or less and seas less than 2 feet over the waters.
606 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025 A 598-599 decameter upper level ridge was centered over the region this Tuesday morning. By late week, the upper ridge is anticipated to retrograde into the Srn Plains/Srn Rockies.
250 AM MDT Wed Jul 30 2025 - Cooler and wetter weather will prevail today and Thursday, with scattered to numerous coverage of late day showers and thunderstorms.
1238 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025 High pressure at the surface and aloft is expected to maintain dry and hot conditions across deep south Texas through next Wednesday.
Relief is on the way! Much cooler conditions will be moving in for the weekend.
High pressure will continue to build across the state, but there will still be an area of low pressure across the West Coast. the previously mentioned trough across the West Coast looks to weaken across the Region, allowing for the ridge to continue to build westward across the Southwest.
- Very high confidence on less humid and cooler conditions late this week and over the weekend. With the high PWATs, brief heavy rain will be seen along with strong winds. Given the potential for heavy rain during the day and more tonight as the cold front slowly moves through the area, a flood watch will be issued for the entire area. Ensembles are in strong agreement that a pattern change will occur with the upper level high getting shunted farther southwest, with northwest flow aloft developing over our area. This will allow for a much cooler and drier air mass to move into the area Thursday into the weekend.
Much cooler temperatures are expected both today and tomorrow, as skies remain mostly cloudy amid weak cold advection. The exception would be for areas west of HWY 61, where meager instability could allow for convection to survive into the eastern Panhandle from the high terrain.
- More unsettled weather expected for the heading into the weekend Current water vapor analysis shows deeply entrenched 500hpa high pressure over the southern CONUS with anti-cyclonic upper flow across much of the upper midwest. High pressure builds into the northern plains through Thursday evening with a 500hpa ridge axis passing through the area.
- Much cooler conditions build over the area starting today with highs mainly in the 70s through this weekend.
402 AM EDT Wed Jul 30 2025 - Cooler to near normal temperatures and dry weather is expected Wednesday through the rest of the week. High pressure sprawled out over the Canadian Prairies is extending ridging into the northern tier of the US. This feature moves into the Lower Midwest Thursday, with associated cloud cover drifting away - but smoke from upstream wildfires will continue to lead to hazy, filtered sunshine today through Thursday. Expect highs ranging in the lower to mid 70s - though locations closer to Lake Superior may struggle to get out of the 60s with northerly flow. Temperatures tonight fall back into the mid/upper 40s inland and the lower 50s near the shorelines of the Great Lakes.
- A cold front will bring a chance of thunderstorms late tonight through Thursday.
325 AM EDT Wed Jul 30 2025 - Chance of showers/storms this afternoon/tonight - Cooler, less humid late week - Chance of showers/storms this afternoon/tonight A cold front is near I-96 and moving south. Dewpoints are in the lower 60s north of the front and near 70 south of it.
Boundary layer moisture remains abundant across central Illinois early this morning as evidenced by 08z/3am surface dewpoints in the lower to middle 70s. One more day of oppressive heat and humidity will occur: however, the highest heat index readings will be confined to locations along and south of a Taylorville to Paris line due to increased cloud cover and rain chances further north. With high temperatures reaching the lower to middle 90s and heat index values peaking at 100-105 degrees, the Heat Advisory for the SE KILX CWA will remain in effect until 7pm. Once the initial line passes and/or dissipates this afternoon, additional cells may form along residual outflow boundaries or a slowly-moving cold front dropping southeastward out of Iowa.
Better shower and thunderstorms chances return Thursday with a cold front.
Flow with this ridge is very weak so shear profiles over the next several days will be very low.
Updated at 1243 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025 - Warmer today with a few storms possible this afternoon and evening, mainly over the southern TX Panhandle.
201 AM EDT Wed Jul 30 2025 A cold front will slowly push from north to south across the region between Wednesday afternoon and early Thursday bringing some showers and a few thunderstorms.
- Very hot conditions will persist today underneath a high pressure ridge. - Starting this afternoon through the end of the week, increasing rain chances are expected as a weak trough arrives and lingers within an airmass of deep tropical moisture over the northern Gulf thus prompting a Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall.