Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
The main risk has transitioned to localized flooding tonight as multiple rounds of showers have moved through a few areas, with the highest amount of 3-4 inches over the last 12 hours being observed in portions of northern Dakota and Pierce counties. The upper level low which has been the primary driver behind the last few days of weather is parked over Lake Superior and will weaken further throughout the day today as flow aloft becomes westerly by early Tuesday morning before shifting northerly for the rest of the week. Fair weather cloud cover is still expected as dew points remain in the 50s and we should mix fairly well, which will also mean chances for overnight fog become possible as temperatures fall to dew points with efficient radiation cooling and weak surface winds underneath high pressure.
207 AM EDT Mon Sep 22 2025 High pressure, dry conditions, and turning hot through mid-week. Key message(s): - Warmer than average for the first day of fall. This has led to developing onshore flow in the low levels. Low temperatures tonight also expected to be similar, in the low to mid 60s. This flow pattern will be short lived as a deepening upper trough across the central U.
113 AM EDT Mon Sep 22 2025 High pressure will be departing off to the east tonight into Monday, which will allow for dry and comfortable weather to continue. With our area on the western side of this high pressure area, the low-level southerly flow is now out of the south, with some gusty winds occurring within the immediate Hudson Valley thanks to channeling through the terrain. 50", with the highest values in the Adirondacks, according to the latest NBM guidance. A closed off upper level low will be moving across the Midwest and will be approaching the region from the west.
1202 AM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025 - Chances for isolated to scattered showers/storms continue today and tomorrow with the highest rain chances closer to the coast.
The low level jet streak that previous discussions mentioned, is currently progged southward. - Chances for showers and storms continues through the week A large upper level low will dominate the weather pattern this week. That wave will dig southward with the latest models showing it becoming a closed low. There is some differentiation on the path of the low.
The exception is western ND where weak troughing may bring a few clouds, along with breezy winds as the surface pressure gradient tightens. A weak ridging pattern looks to prevail through most of the workweek resulting in above average, yet fairly steady high temperatures in the 70s at most locations, most days, with a few readings in the low 80s. Though with light winds and often clear skies forecast, wouldn't be surprised if lows don't wind up a bit cooler at times. Models are also in fair agreement that a trough will pass through at the end of the week and into this weekend.
Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Trough axis upstream continues to slowly trek east this afternoon through early/midweek. Highs Monday expected to top out several degrees above normal for many -- largely in the low-mid 70s. Day 2-3 (Monday night - Tuesday): Upper troughing continues to slowly sag south and east Monday night - Tuesday with continued shower/storm potential.
An upper level trough will bring rain to much of central Indiana today, with rain chances lingering into tonight. Early this morning, radar shows some light rain across eastern Illinois and western Indiana associated with some upper energy ahead of the main trough. Meanwhile, showers and thunderstorms were across Missouri and southern Illinois, associated with an MCV and the main energy in the upper trough. As the upper trough moves east, forcing and moisture will continue to move northeast into central Indiana this morning. Another shot of forcing with the upper trough will impact mainly the southeastern half of the area this afternoon.
Clearing has taken place over the forecast area early this morning after the passage of a cold front. Confidence was not high enough in widespread freezing temperatures for any of our non-mountain zones eligible for Freeze Warnings, but isolated pockets of freezing temperatures may occur (confidence 40%) in central Oregon, the Bear Valley, and the Wallowa Valley. Ridging will then build behind yesterday's front for most of the work week.
233 AM EDT Mon Sep 22 2025 Above normal temperature is expected ahead of a developing upper level low, which may spawn increased shower and thunderstorm chances through Monday. Otherwise, a blanket of cloud cover and 5-10 mph southerly flow will keep low temperatures well above normal to the tune of 8-10 degrees across the board only settling into the low to mid 60s.
Interesting weather setup with small and compacts upper level low spinning across northwest Minnesota. The upper level trough bringing the chances for rain will become more positively tilted and shear out, but this will be a slow process.
131 AM EDT Mon Sep 22 2025 High pressure will continue to extend across the Middle Atlantic today, then drift to near Bermuda through mid-week. After last nights cold fropa, high pressure has continued to build back into the region. Tonight, expect areas of fog and/or low stratus to develop again, with low temperatures in the upper 50s to the low-to-mid 60s.
616 AM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025 - Chances for isolated to scattered showers/storms continue today and tomorrow with the highest rain chances closer to the coast.
A stubborn upper- level trough remains parked across the Gulf, with the base of the trough located just north of the Yucatan Peninsula. Meanwhile, an inverted low- and mid-level trough is currently overtop of the western Bahamas slowly progressing westward. At the surface, sprawling high pressure extends across the Eastern Seaboard and much of the North Atlantic. High pressure over the Eastern Seaboard will sliding eastward will support light to gentle east to southeast breezes. Mainly light breezes, occasionally light to gentle will prevail for much of the rest of the week, as weak high pressure remains across the Florida Peninsula.
Updated at 321 AM PDT Mon Sep 22 2025 - Warming trend continues through Tuesday, areas of Moderate and Major HeatRisk - Weak offshore flow Monday through Tuesday in the higher terrain - Rain showers and isolated thunderstorm chances return Tuesday and lingering through midweek (Today and tonight) Not much going on in the short term forecast as upper level ridging builds into the region. With ridging holding in place, a warmer night is on tap with temperatures ranging from the upper 50s to mid 60s for interior valleys and the coast.
535 AM PDT Mon Sep 22 2025 Updated at 321 AM PDT Mon Sep 22 2025 - Warming trend continues through Tuesday, areas of Moderate and Major HeatRisk - Weak offshore flow Monday through Tuesday in the higher terrain - Rain showers and isolated thunderstorm chances return Tuesday and lingering through midweek (Today and tonight) Not much going on in the short term forecast as upper level ridging builds into the region. With ridging holding in place, a warmer night is on tap with temperatures ranging from the upper 50s to mid 60s for interior valleys and the coast.
1007 AM EDT Mon Sep 22 2025 High pressure will remain in place through tonight.
640 AM EDT Mon Sep 22 2025 High pressure, dry conditions, and turning hot through mid-week. Key message(s): - Warmer than average for the first day of fall. This has led to developing onshore flow in the low levels. Low temperatures tonight also expected to be similar, in the low to mid 60s. This flow pattern will be short lived as a deepening upper trough across the central U.
Cooler temperatures (70s) are expected through late this week. Southerly winds will usher warmer air into the region today. Highs will reach the low to mid-80s. Showers and thunderstorms will continue to be possible through the overnight hours and into the day Tuesday as the upper trough slips into the Central High Plains.
Conditions will trend drier and warmer across Western Washington for the first half of the week.
1044 AM EDT Mon Sep 22 2025 High pressure will remain in place through tonight.
The low clouds and fog should clear out across the region by 9-10 AM this morning.
430 AM PDT Mon Sep 22 2025 Post frontal high pressure will lead to light boundary layer winds and VFR flight categories for area terminals over the next 18-24 hours. Clearing has taken place over the forecast area early this morning after the passage of a cold front. Confidence was not high enough in widespread freezing temperatures for any of our non-mountain zones eligible for Freeze Warnings, but isolated pockets of freezing temperatures may occur (confidence 40%) in central Oregon, the Bear Valley, and the Wallowa Valley. Ridging will then build behind yesterday's front for most of the work week.
516 AM MDT Mon Sep 22 2025 KEY MESSAGES: - Gusty northwest winds and chances for rain continue today behind the cold front passage. WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Cold front moving into North Dakota early this morning, with a narrow upper trough sliding into central Montana. This trough is expected to push south then east, forming a partially closed low. The upper ridge of the system will extend north into Montana by midweek with fast zonal flow over Canada. Occasional windy conditions expected today, with a few showers this morning as the upper trough moves east. Cooler temperatures will also drop south behind the front, before warming into midweek with the building ridge. Cold front passage early this morning brought occasionally gusty northwest winds to the region.
As weak low level ridging continues to extend across most of the area, diurnal convection will be isolated this afternoon, similar to what we have experienced over the past few days.
540 AM EDT Mon Sep 22 2025 Above normal temperatures are expected ahead of a developing upper level low, which may spawn increased shower and thunderstorm chances later this afternoon and evening.
A highly amplified 500 mb synoptic pattern will cause multiple waves of PVA associated with a broad trough over the central CONUS, bringing intervals of pcpn.
Brief ridging continues through tomorrow across northern California, with above normal temperatures and dry conditions.
A trough remains over eastern ID this morning with northerly flow aloft.
1013 AM PDT Mon Sep 22 2025 /18z TAFs/ VFR conditions with mostly clear skies will prevail across the airspace through at least the next 24 hours as upper-level ridging builds over the PacNW. /issued 430 AM PDT Mon Sep 22 2025/ Post frontal high pressure will lead to light boundary layer winds and VFR flight categories for area terminals over the next 18-24 hours. Clearing has taken place over the forecast area early this morning after the passage of a cold front. Confidence was not high enough in widespread freezing temperatures for any of our non-mountain zones eligible for Freeze Warnings, but isolated pockets of freezing temperatures may occur (confidence 40%) in central Oregon, the Bear Valley, and the Wallowa Valley. Ridging will then build behind yesterday's front for most of the work week.
1 - Much-needed rain returns to the forecast ahead of a midweek cold front. 2 - In the wake of the cold front, a return to near normal temperatures can be expected. (This afternoon through Tuesday night) Isolated to scattered convection will continue into the early evening hours as an upper trough swings through the Middle Mississippi Valley. The trough will pull away from the area overnight, with a return to more zonal flow aloft for Tuesday. Regarding temperatures, expect warmer than normal conditions to persist.
KEY MESSAGES: - Strong to severe storms could occur today - Rain chances increase late this evening into the overnight time period - Potential for heavy rain in localized areas --------------------------------------------------------------- Radar and satellite imagery this morning show a large are of showers and thunderstorms moving through Indiana and western Ohio, tied to an upper-level trough progressing across the Great Lakes and Midwest.
High pressure over the Eastern Seaboard will sliding eastward will support light to gentle east to southeast breezes. A stubborn upper- level trough remains parked across the Gulf, with the base of the trough located just north of the Yucatan Peninsula. Meanwhile, an inverted low- and mid-level trough is currently overtop of the western Bahamas slowly progressing westward. At the surface, sprawling high pressure extends across the Eastern Seaboard and much of the North Atlantic. A broad upper trough across the Gulf will slowly lift to the northeast through tonight. In conjunction with this, a weak inverted trough is slowly propagating westward towards the Florida Keys early this morning. In the lower to mid levels, there is also a fair amount of moisture streaming into the area. As the upper level trough lifts northeastward, some weak ridging builds into the region.
300 PM EDT Mon Sep 22 2025 - Scattered Showers/Storms Much of This Week - Dry Weather Likely for the Weekend - Scattered Showers/Storms Much of This Week An upper trough located across WI into the U.
Temperatures look to be cooler with highs near or a little below normal through the week. Positively tilted H5 trough remains stretched across much of the central and eastern CONUS, which acts to continue overall unsettled weather pattern. Lows in the lower and middle 60s will be common.
An upper-level trough situated over Lake Superior will prog slowly to the northeast over the next several hours. Which will also maintain chances for overnight fog as temperatures fall to dew points with efficient radiation cooling and a lack of surface winds under high pressure.
152 PM EDT Mon Sep 22 2025 Warm and mainly dry weather will continue through mid week with high pressure the dominant weather feature. Unsettled weather is likely late this week as a cold front impacts the area. High pressure will continue to loosen its grip on the region overnight. Lows in the lower 60s to around 60 inland. More sunshine and warmer temperatures expected on Tuesday. The mid week period will feature a building mid level ridge initially followed by subtle height falls and increasing moisture from the southwest.
High pressure continue to build over the region today, which has resulted in nearly clear skies.
An upper-level trough approaching the U. West Coast will see a building downstream ridge move across the Rockies and central CONUS over the weekend.
405 AM MDT Fri Oct 25 2024 Dry and seasonable weather is expected today before warmer temperatures and breezy to windy conditions move in this weekend.
A line of showers and a few thunderstorms currently extends north northeast to south southwest across the area ahead of a cold front extending from Iowa through western Missouri into Oklahoma. Cooler air will move in behind the front causing quite a contrast in highs today with lower 80s over southeast Missouri compared to mid 60s over northeast Missouri and west central Illinois. Lows tonight will drop back down into the upper 30s and 40s as high pressure moves into the area providing strong radiational cooling. Highs on Saturday will only be in the 60s as northeast winds continues to bring in cooler air throughout the day.
Cooler at the coast thanks to a gentle sea breeze/east flow. Today, a very weak "backdoor" cold front will push across the area and wash out. Warmer than normal afternoon temps are likely again today with inland areas pushing into the upper 80s. An onshore flow will keep the coastal areas a bit cooler with highs in the upper 70s and low 80s. The area will remain rain-free with above average temperatures this weekend as high pressure continues to sit over the eastern United States.
721 AM EDT Fri Oct 25 2024 (Today through Saturday) Large scale ridging and associated subsidence continues to be the dominant force behind the weather pattern. Additionally, broad mid level ridging is present over the SE CONUS. South Florida sits in the southeast portion of the mid-level ridge across the SE states, leading to low level and mid-level flow out of a northeast direction which is leading to further dry air advection. Temperatures will hit the mid to upper 80s each day, with the slightly warmer temperatures occurring towards the west coast and SW corner of the Peninsula under the E/NE wind regime.
High pressure will bring a steady warming trend through the weekend.
626 AM CDT Fri Oct 25 2024 (Today through Saturday) High pressure persists across the region again today leading to mostly clear skies and another warmer than normal day. Temperatures Saturday will again reach near records for most of the area, though locations across the north may see a slightly cooler daytime high due to the approaching/stalled frontal boundary.
(Today through Saturday) Large scale ridging and associated subsidence continues to be the dominant force behind the weather pattern. Additionally, broad mid level ridging is present over the SE CONUS. South Florida sits in the southeast portion of the mid-level ridge across the SE states, leading to low level and mid-level flow out of a northeast direction which is leading to further dry air advection. Temperatures will hit the mid to upper 80s each day, with the slightly warmer temperatures occurring towards the west coast and SW corner of the Peninsula under the E/NE wind regime.
Today, a very weak "backdoor" cold front will push across the area and wash out. Warmer than normal afternoon temps are likely again today with inland areas pushing into the upper 80s. An onshore flow will keep the coastal areas a bit cooler with highs in the upper 70s and low 80s. pdf The area will remain rain-free with above average temperatures this weekend as high pressure continues to sit over the eastern United States.
Discussion: Near record warmth is forecast today as high pressure remains in control of the sensible weather across the southern Appalachian region.
- Mid-week rainfall potential followed by much cooler/drier weather for Halloween. At least for a couple days it will feel more like traditional Fall as a modified Canadian airmass and high pressure settles southward across mid-America.
A cold front has entered northeast Oklahoma early this morning and will push southeast across the area today, with cooler temperatures following in its wake.
1011 AM EDT Fri Oct 25 2024 A series of cold fronts will move through the region over the weekend with today being a dry day with plenty of sunshine.
Strong high pressure will persist over the region through this weekend leading to above normal temperatures with highs mostly in the mid 90s across the lower deserts.
(Now through Saturday night) A general zonal upper-level flow pattern is expected to continue through much of the period as an upper trough progresses eastwards; remaining north of our area. At the surface, an elongated high pressure, stretching across the Deep South, remains in control of our local weather. A frontal boundary is expected to push southward, however, it looks to stall over the Tennessee River Valley as the upper trough accelerates and essentially leaves the front behind. Highs closer to the coast will be a bit cooler - in the low to mid 80s.
622 AM CDT Fri Oct 25 2024 - Breezy and cooler today with seasonable temperatures through Saturday.
309 AM MDT Fri Oct 25 2024 - Warmer and dry weather for the weekend, with elevated fire weather conditions likely.
An area of high pressure will remain over the region through the end of the week.
1008 AM EDT Fri Oct 25 2024 High pressure will dominate the region through Saturday. A cold front will then move through the area later this weekend, followed by cool high pressure from the north.
638 AM CDT Fri Oct 25 2024 - Near record high temperatures are forecast today, but a cold front will push into the region late in the day, bringing a small chance of light rain. - Dry and seasonably cool temperatures are forecast this weekend as high pressure shifts southward into the region. With high pressure quickly moving east today, southerly flow will bring increasing temperatures back into the area with highs in the lower to mid 80's. The aforementioned trough is expected to bring an increase in cloud cover today as well as the potential for scattered rain showers. A cold front will then move through the region from the NW this evening and overnight veering winds toward the northwest behind the front. High pressure settles in toward the north for the weekend along with northwest flow aloft.
Weak high pressure will provide fairly mild conditions inland over the next couple days with temperatures 5-10 degrees above normal. Lake and Modoc counties will experience the drier conditions across the area today and Friday with minimum afternoon humidity readings of 20-30 percent combined with gusts across the higher terrain around 30 mph today but not as windy Saturday. As we move through Saturday we'll be anticipating the arrival of the 1st big trough of the season with a cold front reaching the coast with some rainfall likely there most of the day.
834 AM EDT Fri Oct 25 2024 High pressure will move south of the area today. A strong cold front will cross the area Saturday morning.
High pressure moves in today causing this morning to be on the breezy side as the pressure gradient tightens, but winds should start to relax into the afternoon/early evening hours as the high pressure moves overhead tonight into Saturday. The quiet and dry conditions will be paired with cooler temperatures in the upper 50s to low 60s today and Saturday which although may feel chilly at times, is actually closer to seasonal high temperatures for late October.
High pressure across the East Coast is maintaining moderate breezes along the Reef this morning. The high will sag slightly southeast and tighten the gradient across the Keys coastal waters. From synopsis, high pressure over the Eastern United States will maintain moderate to fresh northeast to east breezes across the Keys coastal waters through Saturday.
1238 PM CDT Fri Oct 25 2024 (The rest of today ) A cold front currently stretches across northeast Oklahoma into southwest Missouri late this morning. Cooler temperatures are forecast for today after a couple days of record breaking heat. Gusty north winds behind the cold front will maintain a limited fire weather concern across northeast Oklahoma this afternoon.
439 PM EDT Fri Oct 25 2024 High pressure slides offshore tonight as a cold front approaches from the northwest. The cold front will push across the area Saturday afternoon and evening with isolated showers possible.
Temperatures are still expected to reach the mid to upper 80s across the region ahead of an approaching cold front. JPR Unseasonably warm temperatures will persist today, ahead of a cold frontal passage this evening. Though confidence remains on the low end, a few pop-up showers can't be ruled out with this frontal passage.
(Tonight) High pressure continues to promote clear conditions across the Tennessee Valley this afternoon with near record highs possible.
226 PM EDT Fri Oct 25 2024 A cold front will push through the area tonight and Saturday leading to a chance of showers in the mountains.
208 PM EDT Fri Oct 25 2024 There will be a chance for showers and a few thunderstorms today as a cold front moves through the region. By the start of the work week, the high continues to shift east across our area and the region remains dry. However, as upper level ridging moves directly over the region and southerly flow sets up at the surface, strong warm air advection arrives and we'll undergo a significant warming trend. Daytime high temperatures reach the mid/upper 70s mid week before a cold front is poised to move through. Showers will continue to develop and move into the region this afternoon and into tonight as a cold front approaches and moves through the region.