Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A cold front will push into the area from the northwest this afternoon and tonight, before stalling over the region. This combined with the cold front serving as a possible focusing mechanism leads to concerns for the potential of localized flash flooding. A wave associated with an upper level trough will move along a stalled front across the area.
- Warmer today with near normal highs continuing through the week. (Today and tonight) Cooler than normal temperatures continue today and storm chances return by the afternoon. The upper ridging over SoCal will expand to the east with the eastern edge just clipping our region and the secondary upper ridging over the Gulf Coast states remains stagnant through the day. An upper trough currently over the Central Plains will slightly shift to the east over the Oklahoma/Arkansas border.
543 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025 (Today through Monday) A 500 mb ridge will persist across the region through Monday leading which will promote an upward trend in temperatures.
-Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are possible this afternoon as an upper low remains in the vicinity -An upper ridge will build over the area for the first half of the week, lowering rain chances and increasing temperatures.
557 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025 An area of high pressure over the Gulf will expand over Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley. As for temperatures, the low temperatures are generally expected to be in the 70s for most of Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley. The high temperatures are expected to generally be in the 90s, however a few places in Starr and Zapata counties could be in the triple digits. Increasing swell affecting the Lower Texas coast will allow for moderate risk of rip current for the next several days. High pressure over the Lower Texas coast will keep rain chances to a minimum through the period.
Expect overnight lows to drop into the low 70s. Given afternoon highs in the mid 90s and dewpoints in the low/mid 70s, the "Limited" risk for heat stress will continue to be highlighted across our entire CWA through Monday.
1135 AM MDT Sun Jul 13 2025 - Warmer with isolated showers and thunderstorms across the high country this afternoon.
1230 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025 -Portions of west/north Arkansas may see cooler temperatures Sun- Mon. The combination of the H500 trough axis in place across the region, remnant MCV across NE Oklahoma and deep moisture will lead to continued chances of widespread rain and thunderstorms across the state today and again Monday. Will begin to see a pattern change during the Tue-Wed timeframe as the lingering H500 trough becomes absorbed into the mean flow and SE US ridging begins to expand westward back over the state.
Satellite this afternoon continues to show the fetch of moisture being funneled between upper level highs centered over the desert southwest and the Gulf coast. This is well below seasonal highs in the lower 90s. The active northern stream looks to remain across the northern tier of the country leaving a broad pair of upper highs over the SW and SE. However little daily change will be noted as convection forms along the periphery of the high. Temperatures will slowly climb back toward normals in the lower 90s.
60 to 100 percent chance or temperatures to exceed 105 degrees for much of the Kern Desert over the weekend; 50 to 80 percent chance for Inyokern and Ridgecrest to exceed 110 on Sunday and Monday. While 24 hour change in temperatures is running cooler this morning, the current trend will still lead toward triple digit temperatures being reached. With the high pressure dome still overhead, smoke from area wildfires has filtered into the region and will affect the afternoon temperatures. The ridge overhead will also keep winds light and the atmosphere dry.
1038 AM MDT Sun Jul 13 2025 - Warmer temperatures in the 90s and generally dry conditions are forecast through Monday.
Even the low to mid-level circulation is notable on the regional 0. Additionally, locally heavy rainfall can be expected in any shower or storm that develops given the high precipitable water values, high freezing levels, and slow movement. With thick cloud cover today associated with the showers and storms, temperatures will be cooler than normal, especially for the southeastern half of the forecast area.
From synopsis, winds became variable across the Florida Keys earlier today as the influence of high pressure wanes. Weak low pressure tries to develop in the vicinity of Florida heading through the first half of the week. As the weak low pressure area shifts to the west and high pressure builds in behind, breezes will freshen becoming southeast to south at first, before becoming east to southeast for mid to late week. High pressure remains in control of the Florida Keys weather through tonight. Therefore, even though we have high pressure largely in control, there is plenty of moisture throughout the area.
226 PM MDT Sun Jul 13 2025 - An upper level trough brings a Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms Monday evening.
The back-door cold front that sank into northeastern North Carolina had dissipated by this morning, with minimal convergence looking at surface observations. Lows will be in the low to mid 70s. There will be minimal change in the surface pattern, although it appears that a weak trough will try to cross the region tomorrow. Slightly greater cloud coverage should keep highs a degree or two cooler than today, although lows should remain similar.
- A strong July cold front moves southward through the area on Monday afternoon. On Monday, a strong July cold front will move southward through the CWA.
Mean mid level trof to remain over the Great Lakes with trof axis moving into the area toward sunrise Monday. Highs on Monday are expected in the lower and middle 80s with lows Monday night in the upper 60s to the lower 70s.
Generally typical afternoon and evening showers and storms continue to be expected across the region through early this week as upper ridging remains overhead.
(This afternoon through Monday) High pressure will remain over the area with diurnal convection today and tomorrow. With the strength and position of the high over the western part of the state, storms will stay mostly isolated with a low chance for scattered convection to develop each afternoon.
223 PM MDT Sun Jul 13 2025 KEY MESSAGES: 1) Gusty northwest winds are possible late Monday with a cold frontal passage.
By midweek, the overall trend across South Texas looks drier and more stable as moisture decreases and high pressure expands from the east. Highs will generally be in the low to mid 90s, with highs progged to reach the upper 90s to triple digits across the Brush Country. Overnight temperatures will be in the mid to upper 70s, though slightly cooler lows drift in mid-to-late week in response to the drier in filtering into the region.
An upper-level trough with embedded closed low across eastern Oklahoma into Texas to linger through Monday night allowing for increased instability resulting in periods of mainly diurnally driven convection today through Monday evening. Locally heavy rainfall can be expected with some storms today, especially in the vicinity of the upper-trough across southeast Oklahoma and northeast Texas. Overnight lows are forecast to average in the lower 70s. Temperatures on Monday are forecast to range from the mid 80s across southeast Oklahoma where best rain chances are expected to the the mid 90s across north Louisiana where subsidence from an upper-ridge building west will become more influential.
111 PM EDT Sun Jul 13 2025 - Slightly cooler and less humid air is slow to arrive behind a weak cold front today, more noticeable tonight and Monday.
Generally rain-free conditions, near to slightly above normal temperatures, and breezy afternoons will prevail through the week across Deep South Texas as the region remains under the influence of mid-level ridging aloft.
953 AM PDT Sun Jul 13 2025 A little warmer inland for today and Monday. Temperatures today will be slightly warmer from where they were yesterday as high pressure slightly strengthens over the region.
(Rest of today and tonight) Closed low embedded within larger scale trough will continue to move slowly east/northeast into the Ozarks region this afternoon. Farther south, across central/northeast Texas, multiple MCVs and larger scale upper low will move from central Texas northeast into southeast Oklahoma overnight.
216 PM MDT Sun Jul 13 2025 - Warmer (low to mid 90s) and dry into Monday.
Updated at 133 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025 - Continued shower/thunderstorm chances today, mainly in/near the higher terrain (40-60% there, 10-40% elsewhere). WV imagery this afternoon shows an upper ridge just off the coast of SoCal, buttressed by a stubborn trough anchored over central Texas. Monday, the trough is forecast to move little, but thicknesses will begin increasing over West Texas and Southeast New Mexico, beginning a gradual-but-steady warming trend. The LLJ is forecast to strengthen a little, but temperatures should remain near tonight's, if not a skosh warmer as a result.
Aside from that, the current forecast looks to be on track with temperatures climbing to around 100 degrees throughout the lower elevations.
- Warmer temperatures in the 90s to start the week.
(Rest of Today and Tonight) High pressure centered over the Gulf will be the main influence on the local pattern. As a result, clear skies this morning have resulted in temperatures warming quickly into the low to mid 80s as of 10am. By this afternoon, temperatures will top out in the low to mid 90s with heat index values in the upper 90s to around 100F. However, based on trends of what occurred yesterday, would not be surprised to see a few showers and storms this afternoon and evening, therefore kept the low to medium precip chances. Overnight lows will drop into the lower 70s under clear skies.
Areas farther north will feel a little cooler but still humid. Still potential for increased coverage by late week as a trough returns to the eastern U. Hot conditions return as an upper ridges strength peaks in the middle part of the work week. Discussion: Trough moves eastward Monday with continued chances for diurnal convection under the hot temperatures.
- Drier and warmer conditions return by mid week. Still, appears the upper level trough will gradually erode as upper level ridging starts to become more dominant. 500mb low/trough associated with the MCS across west central Texas this morning will move slowly eastward this afternoon.
/19/ Sunday through Sunday night: An upper level trough over the central and southern Plains will try to shift east into our region but high pressure at the surface and aloft to our southeast will strengthen over our CWA through the day. With the lower rain chances and warmer temperatures topping out in the low to mid 90s, heat stress concerns will increase in our west along the Mississippi river especially.
The upper level pattern features a weakening ridge aloft with a weak trough to the north and east. This values is around the 10% percentile for mid-July indicating some cooler air aloft and better than typical lapse rates. This will occur as the area of showers/storms currently off the east coast associated with the upper level low drifts further to the south and west.
1157 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025 (Rest of Today and Tonight) High pressure centered over the Gulf will be the main influence on the local pattern. As a result, clear skies this morning have resulted in temperatures warming quickly into the low to mid 80s as of 10am. By this afternoon, temperatures will top out in the low to mid 90s with heat index values in the upper 90s to around 100F. However, based on trends of what occurred yesterday, would not be surprised to see a few showers and storms this afternoon and evening, therefore kept the low to medium precip chances. Overnight lows will drop into the lower 70s under clear skies.
An upper level low pressure system is generating showers and thunderstorms in an usually moist airmass over South Central Texas. As the low moves away from our area chances should decrease to the 30%-40% range overnight. The upper low will continue to influence the region Monday. The airmass will still be very moist and the lift from the upper low will be enhanced by daytime heating leading to about a 50% chance of showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon over the western Hill Country and Southern Edwards Plateau.
(This afternoon through Monday night) The southern plains continues to be under a weather pattern consisting of high pressure both to the east and west of the region with a trough over the region. The panhandles finds itself under a relatively more stable section of the trough with the better dynamics to the south in central TX panhandle. The only issue with this is the moisture itself is keeping temperatures on the cooler side with daytime high brushing the convective temperature.
836 PM EDT Sun Jul 13 2025 An approaching cold front will generate a few showers and thunderstorms through this evening, some of which could produce heavy downpours. An upper level trough over northern Ontario will move east-northeast help push a cold front into the region. The upper level trough axis will move through the region with the cold front finally exiting the eastern edge of the forecast area Monday.
Models really had a hard time processing what the outflows would develop as it wrapped around the edge of the high pressure in the region. The high should build a touch to the south on Monday, with less in convection.
Not much change to the synoptic environment tomorrow as high pressure centered off to the southwest continues to promote hot and dry conditions across eastern Utah and western Colorado. High pressure will continue to support hot and dry conditions, with increased PoPs in the afternoon. Unsurprisingly, the greatest chances for precipitation tend to be over the high terrain.
749 PM EDT Sun Jul 13 2025 Hot temperatures are expected to start off the week with weak upper ridging in place. The ridge then breaks down, leading to cooler temperatures and higher rain chances during the mid-week period. A new upper ridge could build in from the east to end the week with slowly warming temperatures. Weak ridging persists aloft, with its axis positioned just west of the region. Meanwhile at the surface, a weak area of low pressure is located just off the SC coast, with a general north/northwest flow in place across the area. Temperatures tonight will be seasonably mild, with lows in the lower to mid 70s.
750 PM EDT Sun Jul 13 2025 Weak high pressure will continue to build across the region through the week. A weak upper-lvl ridge will remain across the Southeast over the next couple of days.
950 PM EDT Sun Jul 13 2025 An approaching cold front will continue to support a few showers and thunderstorms through this evening, some of which could produce heavy downpours. An upper level trough over northern Ontario will move east-northeast, helping to push a cold front into the region. The upper level trough axis will move through the region with the cold front finally exiting the eastern edge of the forecast area Monday.
Highs on Monday are expected in the lower and middle 80s with lows Monday night in the upper 60s to the lower 70s.
453 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025 Updated at 451 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025 - Continued shower/thunderstorm chances today, mainly in/near the higher terrain (40-60% there, 10-40% elsewhere). WV imagery this afternoon shows an upper ridge just off the coast of SoCal, buttressed by a stubborn trough anchored over central Texas. Monday, the trough is forecast to move little, but thicknesses will begin increasing over West Texas and Southeast New Mexico, beginning a gradual-but-steady warming trend. The LLJ is forecast to strengthen a little, but temperatures should remain near tonight's, if not a skosh warmer as a result.
343 PM MDT Sun Jul 13 2025 - Warmer with isolated showers and thunderstorms across the high country this afternoon/evening.
Weak low pressure tries to develop in the vicinity of Florida heading through the first half of the week. As the weak low pressure area shifts to the west and high pressure builds in behind, breezes will freshen becoming southeast to south at first, before becoming east to southeast for mid to late week.
204 PM PDT Sun Jul 13 2025 A little warmer inland for today and Monday. The marine layer is about the same depth as at this time yesterday and the low clouds are similar in coverage. The dominant ridge will remain centered about 135 miles west southwest of San Diego through Monday. On Monday, a couple of inverted troughs in the southeast flow on the southern side of the east-west oriented ridge axis will bring some monsoonal moisture into SoCal but the threat of afternoon convection will be low because the moisture will be limited and mostly above 10,000 ft, although a stray shower or tstm can't be ruled out altogether.
625 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025 Generally rain-free conditions, near to slightly above normal temperatures, and breezy afternoons will prevail through the week across Deep South Texas as the region remains under the influence of mid-level ridging aloft.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected this afternoon, especially across the higher elevations of eastern West Virginia. A cold front will slowly approach the Ohio River Monday, with a 60- 70% chance of stalling along or just west of the river.
629 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025 - Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected this afternoon in response to an upper trough. - An upper ridge will build over the region through midweek, lowering precipitation chances while supporting a warming trend.
651 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025 -Portions of west/north Arkansas may see cooler temperatures Sun- Mon. The combination of the H500 trough axis in place across the region, remnant MCV across NE Oklahoma and deep moisture will lead to continued chances of widespread rain and thunderstorms across the state today and again Monday. Will begin to see a pattern change during the Tue-Wed timeframe as the lingering H500 trough becomes absorbed into the mean flow and SE US ridging begins to expand westward back over the state.
625 PM MDT Sun Jul 13 2025 - Warmer with isolated showers and thunderstorms across the high country this evening.
Temperatures today will be a degree or two hotter than yesterday, with the warming trend continuing through tomorrow as the ridge of high pressure continues to build over the Southwestern US. In addition to hotter than normal temperatures, much of our forecast area will continue to experience hazy skies as smoke from area wildfires circulates under the bubble of high pressure. Meanwhile, a cut-off low will develop off the coast of the Baja Peninsula during the middle of the week, which will help to transport moisture back into the area towards the end of the week.
217 PM PDT Sun Jul 13 2025 A little warmer inland for today and Monday. The marine layer is about the same depth as at this time yesterday and the low clouds are similar in coverage. The dominant ridge will remain centered about 135 miles west southwest of San Diego through Monday. On Monday, a couple of inverted troughs in the southeast flow on the southern side of the east-west oriented ridge axis will bring some monsoonal moisture into SoCal but the threat of afternoon convection will be low because the moisture will be limited and mostly above 10,000 ft, although a stray shower or tstm can't be ruled out altogether.
507 PM MDT Sun Jul 13 2025 - An upper level trough brings a Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms Monday evening.
1144 PM MDT Sun Jul 13 2025 - Warmer with isolated showers and thunderstorms across the high country this evening.
1250 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025 -Portions of west/north Arkansas may see cooler temperatures Sun- Mon. The combination of the H500 trough axis in place across the region, remnant MCV across NE Oklahoma and deep moisture will lead to continued chances of widespread rain and thunderstorms across the state today and again Monday. Will begin to see a pattern change during the Tue-Wed timeframe as the lingering H500 trough becomes absorbed into the mean flow and SE US ridging begins to expand westward back over the state.
240 AM EDT Mon Jul 14 2025 Sub-tropical high pressure will extend from near Bermuda to the Carolinas throughout the week. The highest probabilities will be in the NW-N Piedmont regions. The highest probabilities of thunderstorms is over the NW-N Piedmont per the latest CAMS and guidance. This is where the latest CAMS suggest the higher POP and this goes along with the latest soil moisture levels that remain very high in the northern part of the Triad east to Hillsborough and Roxboro.
2) Gusty northeast winds are expected starting this evening with a cold frontal passage.
- Warmer weather on Monday and Tuesday with highs in the 90s.
201 AM EDT Mon Jul 14 2025 Hot temperatures are expected to start off the week with weak upper ridging in place. The ridge then breaks down, leading to lower daytime temperatures and higher rain chances during the mid-week period. A new upper ridge should then build in from the east to end the week with slowly warming temperatures. It will be another hot day with temperatures into the low to mid 90s. Upper ridging weakens during the period as an area of low pressure moves across Florida and into the northern Gulf. At the surface, strengthening Bermuda high pressure will continue to advect high moisture into the region.
The highest temperatures are likely along the Trinity and Klamath Rivers in Trinity and Humboldt Counties.
Updated at 143 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025 - Continued shower/thunderstorm chances today, mainly in/near the higher terrain (20-50% there, 10-30% elsewhere). (Today through Tuesday afternoon) The synoptic pattern remains similar to before: a mid-level ridge is still evident over the southwestern CONUS, while the trough continues to sit over central Texas. Overall, given the continued lack of appreciable forcing across much of our area, the forecast today looks similar to that of yesterday: the best rain chances (20-50%) are in/near the higher terrain (ie the Davis Mountains down towards the Big Bend) due mainly to upslope flow. Meanwhile, rogue outflow boundaries or weak disturbances rounding the edge of the ridge could generate a few isolated showers and thunderstorms elsewhere (10-20%).
The moisture and approach of a stronger longer- wave trough will create widespread SHRA/TSRA in the aftn/evening, mainly over the eastern half of the area. The cold front pulls slowly moves through the area Monday evening into Tuesday morning, allowing for a brief period of no precipitation across central Pennsylvania through the morning hours on Tuesday. But the approach of a deeper upper trough from the west is a good signal that storms will form again Monday. Most of the storms will be SE of IPT-UNV- AOO depending on timing of the trough axis, but a few are possible to the NW of that area.
High pressure will continue over the region and will persist through mid week.
Afternoon high temperatuers will likely reach into the low 90s with skies mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Tuesday due to a warm front just north of there.
High pressure will remain in place and the expansive stalled front will remain well to our north, stretching across the Mid MS Valley and Ohio Valley. Daytime high temperatures will be in the lower 90s but Heat Index values will be around 100 degrees.
Strong high pressure stretches from off the southern California coast northeast into Nevada and Utah.
(Today through Tuesday) A deep-layer ridge axis will hold firm over the region today which should keep convection isolated this afternoon and evening. To our east, an inverted trough associated with a tropical disturbance, will move westward, bringing enhanced moisture and a focus for convection across Georgia. This activity should remain east of our forecast area today, but as the trough continues to move westward, thunderstorm activity may become quite robust on Tuesday across the eastern half of our forecast area.