Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Mid level ridge remains centered over the south US with a band of westerlies from the Northern Plains thru the Great Lakes. In the very humid airmass high temperatures warm to readings ranging from the upper 80s north to the lower 90s south. In the southern half of the FA - where less clouds and pcpn will occur expect heat indices to top out in the lower 100s. Another warm and humid night is expected with low temperatures in the lower and middle 70s. High temperatures to range from the upper 80s to the lower 90s. Large scale mid level ridging over southeast CONUS continues to slowly retrograde west with the ILN CWA on the northern periphery of this feature.
It's all about the heat with this dome of high pressure aloft controlling the pattern. Storm chances spike over the weekend as a wave of energy tries to round the dome of high pressure, causing subtle height falls and sagging a boundary into the area. These refereshingly cooler temps portend a pattern shift as the 8-14 day outlook has us going into a below normal temperature regime.
Upper- level ridge continues to dominate across the region. Due to the strength of the ridge, any convection will mostly be limited to the Cumberland Plateau and the east TN mountains.
The higher PW values remain in place through Friday evening with the HREF guidance continuing to indicate moderate probs for training storms, capable of producing efficient rainfall rates.
119 AM MDT Fri Jul 25 2025 - Today will be warmer, with a decrease in shower and thunderstorm coverage as a drier airmass moves in.
348 AM EDT Fri Jul 25 2025 * Heat Advisory this afternoon/evening over all of southern Indiana and part of central Kentucky * Mainly dry conditions continue with isolated afternoon/evening convection possible Today, the jet stream remains well north of most of the CONUS with an upper high remaining over the Southeast. At the surface, a cold front drapes southwest to northeast through north and central Indiana.
135 AM MDT Fri Jul 25 2025 KEY MESSAGES: - Strong thunderstorms today and tomorrow for a portion of the area along with warmer temperatures. WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: A surface theta-e ridge is allowing for isolated strong thunderstorms to develop along southeast Montana, but this activity should weaken by about 4 am. Today and tomorrow a weak ridge of high pressure will still temperatures to climb to near average to above average. FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: High confidence on the warmer temperatures today and Friday. DISCUSSION: A ridge of high pressure is mostly in control at the moment, but a small pocket of instability has allowed isolated thunderstorms to occur near KSDY and KGDV.
-Hot and humid conditions will continue for the next few days with afternoon high temperatures ranging from the low to mid 90s across Arkansas. AR will reside on the Wrn periphery of an upper ridge through the weekend. At the surface, high pressure will be centered off the E coast with Srly flow over the Srn MS Valley. Afternoon highs should top out in the lower to mid 90s with heat index values between 105-110. Given slightly cooler temps/apparent T's, much of the state is under a Heat Advisory. Upper level energy is anticipated to track Nwrd out of the Gulf, around the periphery of upper level ridging, over the course of the weekend. Relief from the heat will be short lived as the aforementioned ridge retrogrades and expands back into the region.
1207 AM PDT Fri Jul 25 2025 - Warm and breezy Friday, then slightly cooler over the weekend.
Through 4 AM, the highest rain amounts have generally been located along the I-70 and Missouri River corridors, as well as southern and eastern portions of the Kansas City metro area. HREF UH tracks show the highest likelihood of a stronger to severe storm to be along and northwest of I-35.
(Today and tonight) The Southern Plains remains on the northwest periphery of a ~595 mid-level ridge with a weakness/lowered heights associated with a trough overhead.
421 AM PDT Fri Jul 25 2025 - Warm and breezy Friday, then slightly cooler over the weekend.
Showers and TSRA moving east into the western forecast area border along and just ahead of a cold front. Area is diminishing as it moves east and left slight to low chance PoPs with ridging aloft/heat dome.
Warmer, dry, and breezy conditions set in through this weekend. Low pressure centered near the Bay Area this morning will continue to push unusually dry air into our region today through the weekend.
241 AM PDT Fri Jul 25 2025 A weak trough of low pressure moving inland into California will bring cooling for today and Saturday with Saturday high temperatures as much as 10 to 15 degrees below average for the mountains and inland valleys.
* Heat Advisory this afternoon/evening over all of southern Indiana and part of central Kentucky * Mainly dry conditions continue with isolated afternoon/evening convection possible Today, the jet stream remains well north of most of the CONUS with an upper high remaining over the Southeast. At the surface, a cold front drapes southwest to northeast through north and central Indiana.
622 AM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025 -Hot and humid conditions will continue for the next few days with afternoon high temperatures ranging from the low to mid 90s across Arkansas. AR will reside on the Wrn periphery of an upper ridge through the weekend. At the surface, high pressure will be centered off the E coast with Srly flow over the Srn MS Valley. Afternoon highs should top out in the lower to mid 90s with heat index values between 105-110. Given slightly cooler temps/apparent T's, much of the state is under a Heat Advisory. Upper level energy is anticipated to track Nwrd out of the Gulf, around the periphery of upper level ridging, over the course of the weekend. Relief from the heat will be short lived as the aforementioned ridge retrogrades and expands back into the region.
Concurrently, a robust upper cut off low moves into position over the Gulf of Alaska from the north, reestablishing an upper trof along the west coast.
528 AM MDT Fri Jul 25 2025 - Today will be warmer, with a decrease in shower and thunderstorm coverage as a drier airmass moves in.
829 AM EDT Fri Jul 25 2025 Showers and thunderstorms return today as a cold front approaches and stalls across the region.
627 AM EDT Fri Jul 25 2025 * Max Heat Index reaches/exceeds 100F Friday in the SE * Central counties may have HI near 100F this afternoon, but arrival of clouds and showers likely keep HI <100F there * Rounds of thunderstorms are probable this weekend with continued hot/humid weather before a cooldown arrives to kick off the month of August Showers and TSRA moving east into the western forecast area border along and just ahead of a cold front. Area is diminishing as it moves east and left slight to low chance PoPs with ridging aloft/heat dome.
Dewpoints remained in the low-mid 70s resulting in heat indices in the lower to middle 90s at this hour. Afternoon highs will warm into the lower 90s again, though dewpoints look to be a degree or so less today. Today, the jet stream remains well north of most of the CONUS with an upper high remaining over the Southeast. At the surface, a cold front drapes southwest to northeast through north and central Indiana.
232 PM EDT Fri Jul 25 2025 A cold front will slowly move southward across the region today, bringing scattered showers and thunderstorms. Slightly cooler and less humid conditions will follow in the wake of the front for tonight into Saturday along with fair weather.
Satellite depicts clear conditions throughout the region thanks to the trough pushing out of the area. Expecting breezy winds to continue through the Gorge and Cascade Gaps, with temperatures getting to the high 80s/low 90s.
836 AM PDT Fri Jul 25 2025 A weak trough of low pressure moving inland into California will bring cooling for today and Saturday with Saturday high temperatures as much as 10 to 15 degrees below average for the mountains and inland valleys.
Thunderstorms: - Chances (25-45%) for isolated to scattered mountain showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening as upper low moves overhead.
1037 AM PDT Fri Jul 25 2025 - Warm and breezy Friday, then slightly cooler over the weekend.
(This evening through Saturday night) Low pressure/inverted trough continuing to move westward over the Gulf, currently southwest of Morgan City. Trough will move to the Texas coast by Saturday morning as an upper ridge moves westward.
1219 PM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025 -Hot and humid conditions will continue for the next few days with afternoon high temperatures ranging from the low to mid 90s across Arkansas. AR will reside on the Wrn periphery of an upper ridge through the weekend. At the surface, high pressure will be centered off the E coast with Srly flow over the Srn MS Valley. Afternoon highs should top out in the lower to mid 90s with heat index values between 105-110. Given slightly cooler temps/apparent T's, much of the state is under a Heat Advisory. Upper level energy is anticipated to track Nwrd out of the Gulf, around the periphery of upper level ridging, over the course of the weekend. Relief from the heat will be short lived as the aforementioned ridge retrogrades and expands back into the region.
407 PM EDT Fri Jul 25 2025 Showers and thunderstorms today as a cold front approaches and stalls across the region.
An upper level low remains off the Northern CA coast today with dry and unstable conditions continuing. This low will slowly move inland today and weaken. Thunderstorms will mainly be confined to the higher terrain.
The upper high dominating the southeast CONUS will build westward Saturday, though heights will only increase by ~1 decameter. While slightly more oppressive for convection, models do indicate that a subtle weakness in upper ridging will allow for isolated convection to develop once again.
There is a 10 to 30 percent chance for showers and thunderstorms to develop across the Sierra Nevada Crest through Saturday, especially in the high Sierra near Yosemite National Park. Cooler, below-average temperatures and breezy conditions continue until the weekend, with some fire weather concerns.
Today is a near rinse and repeat of yesterday's forecast, as an area of low pressure continues to skirt westward along the central Gulf Coast. This low, currently south of the central LA coast will continue to move westward today, as high pressure builds westward from Florida. The aforementioned ridge will build into the region on Saturday, with rain chances decreasing through the first part of the new work week.
1117 AM MDT Fri Jul 25 2025 - Today will be warmer, with a decrease in shower and thunderstorm coverage as a drier airmass moves in.
It's all about the heat with this dome of high pressure aloft controlling the pattern. Storm chances spike over the weekend as a wave of energy tries to round the dome of high pressure, causing subtle height falls and sagging a boundary into the area. These refreshingly cooler temps portend a pattern shift as the 8-14 day outlook has us going into a below normal temperature regime.
Friday seeing temperatures in the low-mid 90s across the piedmont, set to increase in the mid-upper 90s this weekend. Temperatures even across the higher elevations teasing 80 with potential to see the 80s this weekend, altogether suggesting a hot and humid weekend for most with the only relief coming from scattered thundershowers. With dewpoints forecast to be in the lower to mid 70s, even the nights are expected to be muggy.
Discussion: A large 594-596 dam 500mb ridge centered near the SC coast this afternoon will produce very hot conditions across the Southeastern CONUS. Tropical moisture along the western periphery of this ridge will produce heavy rain and thunderstorms across portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley, Gulf Coast, and ArkLaTex region. Freezing levels near 17k ft will result in higher warm cloud layer depths and limited to no hail risk. By Saturday afternoon, the upper level 500mb ridge will retrograde westward with around 596 dam heights across the Southern Appalachians. This will bring even warmer temperatures aloft, subsidence, and should increase surface temperatures by a few degrees compared to Friday afternoon. Chances of precipitation will be capped at 10 to 20 percent for most locations with the highest probabilities of a shower or storm across the mountains.
- Drier and warmer Mon-Wed followed by another weak upper disturbance approaching the area during the 2nd part of the week.
632 PM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025 Today is a near rinse and repeat of yesterday's forecast, as an area of low pressure continues to skirt westward along the central Gulf Coast. This low, currently south of the central LA coast will continue to move westward today, as high pressure builds westward from Florida. The aforementioned ridge will build into the region on Saturday, with rain chances decreasing through the first part of the new work week.
A strong U/L ridge will build over the Florida peninsula over the weekend. The strong large subsidence associated with the U/L ridge combined with the dry air aloft will suppress convection over the weekend.
Warmer, dry, and breezy conditions set in through this weekend. A mid-level trough currently spinning over central California is evident in satellite water vapor imagery.
804 PM EDT Fri Jul 25 2025 A cold front will slowly move southward across the region today, bringing scattered showers and thunderstorms. Slightly cooler and less humid conditions will follow in the wake of the front for tonight into Saturday along with fair weather.
PVA will turn into NVA and large scale subsidence begins to gradually move in from the east as high pressure builds. By tomorrow large scale subsidence takes hold with ridging overhead.
212 PM PDT Fri Jul 25 2025 - Warm and breezy today, then slightly cooler over the weekend.
Activity should continue to diminish over the next hour or two with the loss of daytime heating and subsidence aloft from the upper level ridge.
652 PM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025 - Slightly cooler temperatures expected for the weekend, with a low chance for showers and thunderstorms in the southeastern parts of the area.
The large-scale pattern features a nearly stationary deep layer mean anticyclone centered over the Atlantic off the Carolinas, with ridging and anticyclonic flow along its southern flank, and across the Florida Keys and adjacent coastal waters. Subsequently, and as expected, fresh ESE breezes prevail across most of the Keys and adjacent coastal waters, with the highest wind speeds over the Straits of Florida.
401 PM PDT Fri Jul 25 2025 - Warm and breezy today, then slightly cooler over the weekend.
726 PM EDT Fri Jul 25 2025 A cold front moves through this afternoon and evening with a few stronger storms across the Wyoming Valley into the Poconos. High pressure builds in tonight with widespread fog developing leading to a dry day for Saturday.
On Saturday, the upper level trough currently over northern California will gradually lift northeast, which will allow the axis of deeper moisture to shift slightly to the east. Saturday will see similar areal coverage to today, with some extension into the lower Snake Plain possible.
Early this morning around 13z, a small cell of convective thunderstorms moved through interior Humboldt near Bridgeville and continued on a southwest trajectory before fizzling out. 2 and EQL levels showing elevated CAPE, we are expecting convective activity through late tonight which also includes small hail and the possibility of strong outflow winds of up to 50+mph as the high based thunderstorms drop out. The low moves to the east Saturday, bringing most mid-level moisture with it.
708 PM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025 -Hot and humid conditions will continue for the next few days with afternoon high temperatures ranging from the low to mid 90s across Arkansas. AR will reside on the Wrn periphery of an upper ridge through the weekend. At the surface, high pressure will be centered off the E coast with Srly flow over the Srn MS Valley. Afternoon highs should top out in the lower to mid 90s with heat index values between 105-110. Given slightly cooler temps/apparent T's, much of the state is under a Heat Advisory. Upper level energy is anticipated to track Nwrd out of the Gulf, around the periphery of upper level ridging, over the course of the weekend. Relief from the heat will be short lived as the aforementioned ridge retrogrades and expands back into the region.
Temperatures will be a couple degrees warmer on Saturday for highs, mainly in the mid 60s to mid 70s. Zonal flow will continue into Saturday, maintaining cooler and cloudy conditions across western Washington.
227 AM EDT Sat Jul 26 2025 High pressure will bring fair and warm conditions today with lower humidity levels.
(Today through Tomorrow) Upper-level ridging is centered over N Florida and just off the SE Coast of Georgia and the Carolinas. The upper-level ridge is advecting a dry, stable airmass across the peninsula, with satellite imagery also showing this layer to contain a substantial amount of Saharan dust. This will disperse the low-level surface moisture that remains present; but ultimately, this does not appear to be enough to overcome such strong obstacles today.
Mid level ridge remains centered over the south US with a band of westerlies from the Northern Plains thru the Great Lakes. Highs temperatures to range from the upper 80s north to the lower 90s south. Warm overnight temperatures to only drop to lows in the lower and middle 70s.
- Cooler temperatures and thunderstorms will follow, midweek. For the rest of the day, winds will be out of the south at less than 10 mph with gusts around 15 mph; really easing off as high pressure builds over the area.
The upper-level trough that has been the dictator of our recent weather brings a low probability (5%) high-impact scenario of elevated convection.
High pressure was found north of the boundary over Ontario and a second area of high pressure was found over the southeastern states. An upper level high pressure system was found over the SE states, resulting in ring of fire like effects over IL into northern Indiana. The very hot and humid air mass in place across the area will continue to control our weather as the upper high is suggested to strengthen and steer potential forcing dynamics and the tropical plume farther to the north. Again high dew points in combination with highs around 90 will result in heat index values in the low 100s.
The upper low that brought convection to mostly Trinity County on Friday moves to the east Saturday, taking most mid-level moisture with it.
1239 AM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025 -Hot and humid conditions will continue for the next few days with afternoon high temperatures ranging from the low to mid 90s across Arkansas. AR will reside on the Wrn periphery of an upper ridge through the weekend. At the surface, high pressure will be centered off the E coast with Srly flow over the Srn MS Valley. Afternoon highs should top out in the lower to mid 90s with heat index values between 105-110. Given slightly cooler temps/apparent T's, much of the state is under a Heat Advisory. Upper level energy is anticipated to track Nwrd out of the Gulf, around the periphery of upper level ridging, over the course of the weekend. Relief from the heat will be short lived as the aforementioned ridge retrogrades and expands back into the region.
1204 AM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025 - Slightly cooler temperatures expected for the weekend, with a low chance for showers and thunderstorms in the southeastern parts of the area.
(Tonight through next Friday) Heat indices today will be a degree or two cooler than Friday as a large upper level ridge centers over South Carolina.
- Cooler temperatures and thunderstorms will follow, midweek. Otherwise, expecting a mostly sunny and hot day as an upper ridge begins to build over the area from the southern plains. For the rest of the day, winds will be out of the south at less than 10 mph with gusts around 15 mph; really easing off as high pressure builds over the area.
Heat index values in the lower 100s for the central and southern TN Valley. A tropical like airmass remains as well as we are on the western periphery of the high, allowing gulf moisture to stream into our area. The hot and humid air will allow Heat Indices to climb into the lower 100s this afternoon for much of the central and southern TN Valley. Heat Indices in the low to upper 90s expected across northeast TN and southwest VA.
It will be a relatively muggy overnight, especially across southern PA, with low temperatures ranging from the low 60s near the NY state line to the low 70s to the southeast of Blue Mountain.
An upper ridge will stay positioned over the Carolinas into the southeast. Leaned against the higher pops of the NBM based on the upper pattern but still scattered coverage for storms progged over the mountains starting around midday/early afternoon but may not see as much coverage til later in the afternoon/evening as cap weakens.
Along with some cooler temperatures returning there will also be improving chances for thunderstorms. For today, models remain in good agreement with an upper level ridge building into the Central Plains.
Strong ridging will gradually shift westward across Florida into the Gulf over the next couple of days. This, along with the high pushing west, will result in modestly increasing lower level moisture and weakening inhibition.
630 AM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025 (Tonight through Sunday night) Low pressure/inverted trough continues to move westward and currently centered south of Lake Charles. It will give us one more day of rain as we still have a weakness until high pressure moving in from the east begins to dominate late tomorrow. The higher pressure extending westward over us bringing suppression of lift combined with lower PW in the 1.
(Today and tonight) Broad upper level ridging persists over the southeastern CONUS, and the forecast area will remain beneath the western edge of this ridge throughout the short term period. As a result, sfc-H5 layer thicknesses will increase resulting in temperatures several degrees warmer this afternoon compared to yesterday with highs today in the upper 90s to low 100s.
- Nearly seasonable late July-early August temperatures/heat indices (Today through Sunday) The low pressure system we have been tracking for the last few days has moved onshore ending the possibility of tropical cyclone development.
High pressure will bring fair and warm conditions today with lower humidity levels. An approaching warm front will bring showers and thunderstorms late tonight into Sunday.
743 AM EDT Sat Jul 26 2025 (Today through Tomorrow) Upper-level ridging is centered over N Florida and just off the SE Coast of Georgia and the Carolinas. The upper-level ridge is advecting a dry, stable airmass across the peninsula, with satellite imagery also showing this layer to contain a substantial amount of Saharan dust. This will disperse the low-level surface moisture that remains present; but ultimately, this does not appear to be enough to overcome such strong obstacles today.
636 AM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025 (Tonight through Sunday night) As upper level high pressure settles in today, surface temperatures will also increase areawide. Most locations are expected to stay in the mid to upper 90's with a few areas exceeding those values and rising to the lower 100's. That being said, it may only feel 2-3 degrees warmer for these areas due to the potential afternoon cloud coverage dropping surface temperatures a few of degrees. Some thunderstorms may also generate across central portions of the Texas Panhandle due to high moisture lingering across the High Plains.
Temperatures will rebound by the middle of the week, with highs soaring back into the low 90s along the coast to around 105 over the Rio Grande Plains.
The increase in cloud cover will keep temperatures a few degrees cooler than yesterday afternoon's highs, but humidity will also be higher with surface dewpoints unlikely to mix out to the 60s across the eastern half of the forecast area. On Sunday, the upper ridge center that will have been positioned to our east will begin to expand and strengthen, and will shunt most rain chances south of the CWA while large-scale subsidence increases.