Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Surface analysis depicts high pressure sprawling from the Atlantic westward across Florida and into the Gulf of Mexico. Aloft, a Tropical Upper Tropospheric Trough (TUTT) cell continues to spin northeast of the Bahamas, with the subtropical ridge arcing around this feature from the Mid Atlantic to the Southeastern states then southward across Florida and the Gulf.
222 AM EDT Tue Jul 9 2024 A weak trough will develop across the area.
As high pressure amplifies over the western U. Increasing overnight lows ranging the 60s and warmer will also make overnight recovery increasingly difficult, which will exacerbate heat associated risks. EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNINGS for locations south of the Snake Plain and west of the Bear River Range and HEAT ADVISORIES for all remaining valley locations go into effect early Wednesday due to widespread temperatures of 95 to 105 degrees with localized areas expected to observe even warmer temperatures into the extended timeframe. Portions of the lower Snake Plain may need to be upgraded to a warning but this would be during late week or early weekend when temperatures peak, so we will maintain the aforementioned hazards at this time.
Between now and then, this timeframe is the most concerning for tornado formation over southwest AR as the lower lvl wind fields wl rmn favorable for tornadic development.
930 PM MDT Mon Jul 8 2024 - Becoming hot - Limited precipitation chances - Elevated fire weather conditions develop This afternoon the upper trough is located to the east of the forecast area. With the ridge over the western CONUS, northwest flow aloft continues over the forecast area.
The low-level offshore flow looks to be strong enough to inhibit sea breeze formation near KMLB northward.
More of the same weather continues through Wednesday as an Upper Level low sits over the Great Lakes and provides enough upper level forcing for afternoon showers and thunderstorms.
As convection dies down overnight, lows will drop to the lower to mid 70s across most of the area (with mid to upper 60s in the NE mountains). Additionally, due to the high precipitable water values and slow storm motion, locally heavy rains are possible in the strongest or more persistent storms.
635 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024 (Through tonight ) Still some lingering impact from "Francine" as the remnant low continues to meander across the lower MS valley, all the while weakening. A prolonged blocking pattern featuring an expanding ridge over the central states results in rising temperatures and some increase in in humidity as well. Current expectation remains that the upper trough currently moving through the Great Basin will lift off to the northeast. A second trough is then forecast to essentially replace the first one in the southwest, in effect re-enforcing the strong ridge over the Southern Plains. BY the weekend the later trough should being to make its move, however the trends do not favor a significant impact on our weather at this time.
- Pattern change end of the week with cooler weather likely 20Z upper analysis shows southwesterly flow aloft over the region due to an upper low centered over Nevada. Breezy to windy southeasterly surface winds are occurring over much of the area this afternoon due to a low pressure center located just to the the west of the forecast area. Weak disturbances in the flow aloft and diurnal heating producing weak-moderate instability, have produced some showers, and a couple of thunderstorms, over the higher terrain to the west of the CWA and also over the northern Black Hills. On Tuesday, the upper low will eject northeastward into Wyoming with pronounced synoptic forcing ahead of it per the negative tilt.
904 PM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024 Low pressure will move from the Carolina coast into the southern Appalachians tonight into Tuesday where it will stall. High clouds will gradually increase across our area overnight in association with a low pressure system over the Carolina coast. Vertically stacked low pressure system will meander about the southern Appalachians through the period. So PoPs have been kept in the low chance category with little QPF. Clouds will keep daytime temperatures a bit cooler than today although highs will still be above normal except for perhaps in northeast Kentucky and south central Ohio. Lows will be warmer with readings in the lower to mid 60s.
The upper low currently over California will push slowly eastward tonight into tomorrow afternoon. This will help to slowly kick the upper ridge currently dominating the FA eastward and increase upper diffluence across the region. Convection is expected to develop over the higher terrain of New Mexico early to mid afternoon and push eastward into the early evening.
High pressure begins to build into Deep South Texas over the next few days, however as this ridge builds we will continue to have some weak impulses along with some leftover boundaries from activity yesterday into this morning. Areas of the Lower Valley who received rainfall of 2 to 5 inches yesterday will be especially susceptible to flooding and ponding of water on roads and low lying areas. Tomorrow high temperatures will be a bit warmer with highs in the low 90s.
Low pressure deepening over the northern high plains is expected to trigger strong to widely scattered severe thunderstorms over the northern plains this evening. As the low moves eastward Tuesday, general thunderstorm chances (30-40% chance) are forecast into tomorrow morning.
707 PM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024 High pressure anchored off the coast of New England will extend back across the Lower Great Lakes through Tuesday night, and this will maintain dry and warm weather throughout our region. The only difference from the past several days will be a thickening blanket of highs clouds that will push northward from low pressure drifting north from the Carolinas to the Mid Atlantic.
Upslope flow and increasing moisture will increase mostly light rain shower chances for the higher terrain of WV after midnight. KEY MESSAGES: - Periodic rain chances midweek as coastal low meanders around the Mid-Atlantic - Probabilities remain low in seeing 1" or greater of rainfall ------------------------------------------------------------------- There remains fairly high consensus for the coastal low to meander around the Carolinas to Mid-Atlantic vicinity midweek as its parent trough remains detached from the broader northern jet streams.
High pressure will continue to dominate the area's weather and warm and dry conditions will persist. The ridge will block this low from making it to the Ohio Valley, and it will instead move northeast.
Showers are possible across the Plateau starting late morning through the afternoon in association with a potential topical cyclone moving in from the Atlantic. (Rest of today through Tuesday) Weak ridging builds aloft causing a drier airmass to move in over Middle Tn. Much of the same on Tuesday for our western half of the CWA, but for our eastern half, increasing clouds and cooler temperatures are expected. With the dry northerly flow, RHs will be on the lower side making those high temps not feel so bad. Along with cooler temperatures on Tuesday, there will be some increased moisture associated with potential Tropical Cyclone Eight over the Carolinas.
611 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024 - Staying warm throughout the week, eventually turning cooler by the end of the weekend.
With the approach of the upper low and some meager daytime heating we are seeing additional shower and thunderstorm development east of the I-17/US89 corridor and this is expected to continue through early evening before being confined mainly east of Payson- Window Rock line overnight through around sunrise Tuesday. With the combination of increased deep-layer wind shear due to the approaching trough and higher instability in northeast Arizona, there is a chance for some isolated strong/severe thunderstorms this afternoon and early evening north of I-40 and east of a Winslow-Kayenta line. The other story today in the gusty southwest winds due to the low to the west, gusting 40-50 mph for much of northern Arizona.
Easterly winds at 850 mb may result in downslope drying effects in the Valley, so the highest QPF amounts will be in the higher terrain along the NC border, where 1. With the expected cloud cover and precip, temperatures on Tuesday will be much cooler, with highs in the upper 60s north to upper 70s south.
An U/L trough will persist over the southeast U. and Florida through the week, with an U/L level ridge building over the area during the weekend.
Synoptic pattern remains dominated by rex blocking with a ridge over a broad upper low out east and a deep trough to the west. A large upper low pivots northeast out of the desert southwest toward mid-week, eventually taking on a negative tilt before occluding over eastern Montana.
The high pressure wedge is still dominating the weather pattern over GA with good easterly surface winds, but it is weakening. This tropical system rotating over the Carolinas is helping to bring in a drier airmass wrapping around the backside of the low center.
The upper level ridge will generally remain over the area through Tuesday, keeping temperatures warmer than normal, and rain chances low. (Tuesday night through next Monday) The large scale pattern over the CONUS through the next several days will be characterized by a broad upper level trough over the western U. and an upper level low over the eastern U. Upper level ridging will be in place over the southern Plains keeping our area generally dry with warmer than normal temperatures through the remainder of the work week.
Weak ridging over the area today for general benign conditions.
OVERVIEW: stout upper level ridge will be the main weather influence through the middle part of the week, keeping it dry with ample summer warmth. The deterministic and bulk of the EPS and GEFS ensemble members all layout some QPF for the local area, although how much of a deterrent the ridge/dry air will play is uncertain.
The ridge will get pinched between a cut off low over the Appalachians and southwesterly flow over the Plains over the second half of the week.
636 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024 (Rest of today through Tuesday) Weak ridging builds aloft causing a drier airmass to move in over Middle Tn. Much of the same on Tuesday for our western half of the CWA, but for our eastern half, increasing clouds and cooler temperatures are expected. With the dry northerly flow, RHs will be on the lower side making those high temps not feel so bad. Along with cooler temperatures on Tuesday, there will be some increased moisture associated with potential Tropical Cyclone Eight over the Carolinas.
Although mid-upper level ridging will increase tonight into Tuesday and lead to drier northwesterly flow, moist low-level flow along with PVA from 850-700mb will stay intact over the southern half of the CWA (mainly south and west of I-37). Lows tonight and Tuesday night range from the mid to upper 70s with highs on Tuesday in the low to mid 90s.
Overnight lows will generally range between the lower and mid 60s. (Through tonight ) Still some lingering impact from "Francine" as the remnant low continues to meander across the lower MS valley, all the while weakening. A prolonged blocking pattern featuring an expanding ridge over the central states results in rising temperatures and some increase in in humidity as well. Current expectation remains that the upper trough currently moving through the Great Basin will lift off to the northeast. A second trough is then forecast to essentially replace the first one in the southwest, in effect re-enforcing the strong ridge over the Southern Plains. BY the weekend the later trough should being to make its move, however the trends do not favor a significant impact on our weather at this time.
At 830 PM MDT showers and thunderstorms were pivoting around an upper low centered in northern Nevada and moving east to west across our CWA.
630 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024 (Tonight through Tuesday night) An omega block pattern will remain in place from the short term period and beyond with the mid-level ridging portion of this block pattern remaining settled atop the state of Texas.
This low has enabled a channel of moisture to feed in from the Gulf and that will precipitate out over the forecast region today.
326 AM EDT Tue Sep 17 2024 High pressure will continue to bring dry and mild weather through the remainder of the week and into this weekend for most of the region. There is a small chance for showers in northeast Pennsylvania on Wednesday as low pressure passes well to our south. High pressure will remain over the region today and again tomorrow. However, the cirrus will keep temperatures slightly cooler than yesterday, but still well above average for this time of year. Latest model guidance keeps low pressure well south of the region on Wednesday, so lowered PoPs to just slight chance for portions of NE PA through Wednesday evening.
Clouds and moisture associated with potential Tropical Cyclone Eight will steadily advance into the region tonight and tomorrow. As the low moves closer to Kentucky, cyclonic wind flow will bring north to northwesterly winds across the region and bring "cooler" high temperatures Wednesday in the upper 70s to lower 80 on a line from Tompkinsville to Danville to Lexington and eastward, while other locations to the west of this line will see high temperatures in the mid 80s.
Conditions are expected to slightly change Tuesday afternoon as a low pressure system, currently over the eastern Carolinas moves into the Smoky Mountains.
300 AM EDT Tue Sep 17 2024 Low pressure centered over the Carolinas early this morning will drift slowly northeast, staying on the east side of the southern Appalachians, which will keep a chance of rain in the area through Wednesday.
Weak ridging over the area today for general benign conditions. A upper level trough and associated front will push through the region late Tuesday for some rain showers into Wednesday.
Large high pressure ridge extending from New England westward across the Great Lakes region and into northeast and central IL will remain in place for a few more days, keeping similar weather conditions going across the area. One thing that has changed is the lower dewpoints in the 50s over much of central/se IL, ranging from upper 40s in Danville and Paris to 60-65F from Quincy, Macomb and Galesburg west. A strong mid/upper level trof with 560 dm 500 mb cutoff low over central CA to eject a piece of energy ne into the upper MS river valley Thu night/Fri morning.
322 AM EDT Tue Sep 17 2024 High pressure will continue to bring dry and mild weather through the remainder of the week and into this weekend for most of the region. There is a small chance for showers in northeast Pennsylvania on Wednesday as low pressure passes well to our south. High pressure will remain over the region today and again tomorrow. However, the cirrus will keep temperatures slightly cooler than yesterday, but still well above average for this time of year. Latest model guidance keeps low pressure well south of the region on Wednesday, so lowered PoPs to just slight chance for portions of NE PA through Wednesday evening. This will allow for an increase in clouds from south to north as some moisture associated with upper level low over the central Appalachians slowly pushes northward.
A few scattered showers are moving over Siskiyou and Modoc counties, spinning around a low pressure system moving across California. Another low pressure system looks to pass to the west tomorrow, with precipitation focused on areas west of the Cascades (60-100% through the day), with lesser chances (50-80%) east of the Cascades. Cloud cover remains over much of northern California and southern Oregon due to a lingering low pressure system to the south. Another low pressure system will move south over the Pacific through the day Tuesday, with precipitation mostly falling west of the Cascades.
Dewpoints as of 2 am are sitting in the 50s, with the lowest readings in east-central Illinois. A Rex block remains stoutly in place over the eastern CONUS with strong high pressure ridging over the northeast US and an upper low over the southeast. The remnants of Tropical Depression Eight will continue to slowly move inland today before becoming stationary as it encounters ridging. Daytime highs will continue to sit between 5-10 degrees warmer than normal for mid September.
This low has enabled a channel of moisture to feed in from the Gulf and that will precipitate out over the forecast region today. Expect muggy and mild afternoons, with muggy and cooler nights.
Guidance is consistent in moving upper level ridging over the region through the period for overall warm and dry conditions. Lows will dip into the lower to mid 60s.
Low pressure deepening over the northern high plains is expected to trigger strong to widely scattered severe thunderstorms over the northern plains this evening. As the low moves eastward Tuesday, general thunderstorm chances (30-40% chance) are forecast into tomorrow morning. Drier weather looks likely (90% chance) on Wednesday as a drier air mass may promote decreased relative humidity from a drop in dew points into the 50 degree F range behind the passing low pressure.
100 AM EDT Tue Sep 17 2024 The influence of high pressure will persist across the region through the week as the remnants of Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight pass to the east Tuesday night into Wednesday. Quiet and mostly dry weather is expected through the near term period as the region remains under the influence of high pressure. The remnants of Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight will pass just to the east of the area Tuesday night into Wednesday which could kick off a few isolated rain showers along and east of the I-71 corridor where surface convergence is largest. A weakening upper level low pressure system will be near the southern Appalachian Region on Wednesday. There will be high and mid level cloudiness over our area from this low pressure system.
(Today through Wednesday afternoon) Current water vapor imagery shows the longwave trough that will pivot across the Four Corners and move just northwest of our area for today. As the upper level trough moves to the east during the day today, the surface feature will follow suit. Drier conditions hold for Wednesday as the aforementioned upper low departs northward. Highs for both today and on Wednesday top out above normal in the low to mid 90s for most with the exception of the mountains that stay slightly cooler.
Storms will be capable of localized heavy rain given the high precipitable water values, and a marginal risk of flash flooding remains across the Florida panhandle given the current saturated soils. Expect daytime highs generally in the 80s with overnight lows ranging from the mid 60s across the northern counties to the low to mid 70s along the coast.
Tonight through Tuesday night An upper-level area of low pressure will move northeastward over Northeastern Nevada tonight. The aforementioned cyclone aloft will move northeastward from Northeastern Nevada into Eastern Idaho Tuesday.
(Today through Wednesday) Large synoptic upper troughing over the eastern CONUS has devoured the remnants of PCT8. This whole mess has developed two large trough lobes. This process will continue today but this trough axis will slowly move to the coast by Wed as dry mid level air continues to press southward.
Temperatures will trend warmer this week, but should remain below 90 degrees across most of the region.
411 AM EDT Tue Sep 17 2024 Low pressure will move from the Carolinas into the southern Appalachians today where it will stall. High pressure will then offer dry weather for the end of the week into the weekend. Clouds will keep daytime temperatures a little cooler than today - but still continue above normal. Clouds and an increase in low level moisture will result in warmer readings with lows in the lower to mid 60s. Expect warm highs to range from the lower 80s to the middle 80s. High pressure containing scant moisture is likely to keep dry weather across the Ohio Valley through the period.
Showers in eastern WA and the ID Panhandle will be from precipitation wrapping around a center of low pressure to our southeast, while showers over the Cascades will be caused by another low moving down the West Coast from the Gulf of Alaska, placing the region in a moist, southwesterly flow regime.
Tonight, coastal drizzle will be possible as moist conditions persist and troughing lingers over the region.
(Today through Wednesday Night) Mid-upper ridging and associated subsidence should keep rain chances at a minimum.
The upper level ridge will generally remain over the area through Tuesday, keeping temperatures warmer than normal, and rain chances low.
200 AM PDT Tue Sep 17 2024 Dry today then cooler unsettled weather tonight through Wednesday.
A few scattered showers are moving over Siskiyou and Modoc counties, spinning around a low pressure system moving across California. Another low pressure system looks to pass to the west tomorrow, with precipitation focused on areas west of the Cascades (60-100% through the day), with lesser chances (50-80%) east of the Cascades.
Some of those scattered light showers could impact the eastern counties today as the low takes a westward jog.
The drier air and warmer temperatures may lead to an increase in brush fire activity across the area, especially where very little rain occurred over the past week. At the same time, an upper- level ridge axis will shift from the Plains eastward across the entire Quad State region.
153 AM EDT Tue Sep 17 2024 The influence of high pressure will persist across the region through the week as the remnants of Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight pass to the east Tuesday night into Wednesday. Quiet and mostly dry weather is expected through the near term period as the region remains under the influence of high pressure. The remnants of Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight will pass just to the east of the area Tuesday night into Wednesday which could kick off a few isolated rain showers along and east of the I-71 corridor where surface convergence is largest. A weakening upper level low pressure system will be near the southern Appalachian Region on Wednesday. There will be high and mid level cloudiness over our area from this low pressure system.
324 AM EDT Tue Sep 17 2024 An upper-level trough spins over the southeast U. early this morning, with Atlantic ridging extending toward the Florida Straits. At the surface, Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight remains over the Carolinas while a weak boundary persists over Florida. The trough aloft generally persists over the southeast through much of the week before ridging builds over the area for the weekend. Light onshore flow will continue through the next few days, then shift to northerly for the end of the week and then back to northeast to east for the weekend as high pressure builds in from the north.
With the dry air in place, maintained only slight chance pops late tonight for Tucker county, as moisture increases on the northern side of the low centered across the SE CONUS. Upslope flow and increasing moisture will increase mostly light rain shower chances for the higher terrain of WV after midnight. KEY MESSAGES: - Periodic rain chances midweek as coastal low meanders around the Mid-Atlantic - Probabilities remain low in seeing 1" or greater of rainfall ------------------------------------------------------------------- There remains fairly high consensus for the coastal low to meander around the Carolinas to Mid-Atlantic vicinity midweek as its parent trough remains detached from the broader northern jet streams.
(Tuesday night through Wednesday night) The remnants of PTC8 will be meandering across the southeast US while it becomes embedded in a larger upper level trough over the southeastern portions of the US on Tuesday night. Showers and storms from Tuesday afternoon should slowly diminish into the overnight hours and as the trough slowly pushes east into Wednesday night.