Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Onshore flow developing late week and will bring cooler and quieter conditions with locally breezy winds.
105 PM MDT Wed Jul 2 2025 -General westerly flow through the period will support average to above average temperatures with chances for storms at times in the period -Hot and breezy Thursday, cooler this weekend Mean eastern Pac trough will support semi-unsettled westerly flow over the region through the period.
12Z upper air maps show axis of low pressure trof aligned from the Appalachians to the eastern Gulf.
A very messy weather pattern expected for the rest of our work week as a weakening cold front drifts into Central Florida over the next couple of days.
246 PM EDT Wed Jul 2 2025 - Warming trend back to the low 90s.
141 PM EDT Wed Jul 2 2025 High pressure remains in control through the end of the work week with mostly dry conditions. Seasonal temperatures begin to trend warmer as we head toward the weekend. High pressure will be squarely over the forecast area on Thursday and most locations will remain dry throughout the entire day with some diurnal cumulus. Far to our north, near the Hudson Bay, a low pressure system will be swinging by. Its trailing cold front will swing down through the northern Great Lakes and may provide just enough forcing for a passing afternoon shower/storm for our counties north of I-70, particularly near the Columbus area. Overnight lows are a tad warmer, since the high will be shifting east and weak southerly flow will begin to return; temps fall to the mid/upper 60s.
1040 AM PDT Wed Jul 2 2025 * Widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected today as a low pressure system moves through.
Precipitable water content remains on the high end with 2 inches PWAT prog'd over southern and into central Oklahoma this afternoon and evening.
Scattered showers with the occasional thunderstorm continues this afternoon due to 99th percentile moisture interacting with an inverted trough around the western periphery of a mid-level ridge centered over Southeast Texas. The aforementioned ridge weakens and slides southward into the western Gulf Thursday.
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Upper ridging being flatteded today will allow for another hot day Thursday with highs near 100 from Wolf Point to Glendive. Ensembles continue to support a more showers/thunderstorms through the Holiday weekend along with cooler air.
There will also be some cooling aloft though, enough to allow for another round of convection in the slightly cooler and drier airmass.
1251 PM EDT Wed Jul 2 2025 (Today through Thursday) Models depict a trough/low complex over the E CONUS with an associated sfc frontal boundary pushing SE and into the Florida panhandle today. Heat indices could reach the low 100s, especially over interior and southwest areas.
A fairly uniform southeast flow in the lowest 400mb should keep any convection moving from southeast to northwest around 30 mph.
320 PM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025 - Heat and humidity continues through the end of the week with highs in the low 90s and heat indices in the mid to upper 90s.
- Seasonably mild tonight and cooler than normal highs again on Thursday.
159 PM EDT Wed Jul 2 2025 Another cold front drops south from the Great Lakes on Thursday with drier weather for the Independence Day holiday weekend. As of 150 pm: Isolated to scattered diurnally fired deeper convection will continue to percolate along and east of upper trough axis, mainly across the Piedmont, through the late afternoon before ashing out aided by the progressive influx of much lower PWAT values. This will effectively cap any deep convective chances tomorrow as Piedmont maximums climb into the lower 90s and sfc dwpts fall below 70. This is thanks to an upper ridge building in across the OH Valley and bringing subsidence atop the forecast area.
1216 PM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025 (Rest of Today and Tonight) A cold front that previously brought showers and storms to the area last night has pushed southeastward through the Tennessee Valley.
Clearly seen in water vapor imagery and surface analysis, an approaching trough and associated front continue to dig towards the area, albeit very slowly. PVA ahead of the approaching trough is pretty clear in the water vapor imagery and is forcing some scattered showers as of 17z in the Midlands. Despite the approaching trough there really is not much shear through 6-8km, so the convective severe threat is limited especially with only moderate CAPE. Given the high PWAT's, skinny CAPE shape, and therefore efficient rain rates, flash flooding is biggest concern, but enough storm motion should generally preclude much more than an isolated threat.
237 PM EDT Wed Jul 2 2025 A cold front will cross the area on Thursday, bringing a chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms. High pressure moves in behind the front, bringing wonderful weather for the 4th of July and into the weekend. Thursday will see a return of active weather as a cold front drops down from Canada. The front exits the region tomorrow evening and dry high pressure will build in behind the front, setting the stage for a beautiful 4th of July. Cooler temperatures and lower humidity expected on the 4th of July with northwest flow in place. Skies will be mostly sunny with high pressure building overhead.
145 PM EDT Wed Jul 2 2025 A mid and upper-level trough and accompanying surface cold front will move slowly eastward across the Middle Atlantic and Carolinas through Thursday morning. Scattered shallow showers remain possible through this evening along the cold front. Otherwise, less cloud cover and minimal airmass change behind the cold front will result in above average temperatures with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s.
230 PM EDT Wed Jul 2 2025 A mid and upper-level trough and accompanying surface cold front will move slowly eastward across the Middle Atlantic and Carolinas through Thursday morning. Scattered shallow showers remain possible through this evening along the cold front. Otherwise, less cloud cover and minimal airmass change behind the cold front will result in above average temperatures with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s.
758 PM EDT Wed Jul 2 2025 High pressure will build across the region Thursday with dry weather expected for the upcoming Holiday weekend. Key Messages: 1) Lingering shower/storm potential along and east of the Blue Ridge this evening. An isolated shower or two are present on radar east of the Blue Ridge. Nothing to amend except for updating the temperature forecast to match the slightly warmer temps, perhaps caused by lingering low level moisture disallowing efficient radiative cooling. High pressure building into the forecast area from the northwest. Dew points may be a little lighter on July 4, with values as low as the upper 50s along and west of the Blue Ridge, but these will recover into the 60s by the weekend. 500mb heights will build up as a large upper level ridge forms and stretches over the southwestern CONUS.
745 PM EDT Wed Jul 2 2025 A mid and upper-level trough and accompanying surface cold front will move slowly eastward across the Middle Atlantic and Carolinas through Thursday morning.
331 PM MDT Wed Jul 2 2025 - Warm Thursday with high temperatures in the high 80s to mid 90s.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue this evening as a slowly moving front and upper trough move toward the region. Low temperatures continue to be mild in the low to mid 70s.
Updated at 1000 PM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025 - Quiet weather and decreased humidity through Thursday, with temperatures increasing into the low to mid 90s for most places on Independence Day. - Afternoon heat indices could reach the low 100s during the holiday weekend.
Weak showers were detected on the KBYX radar north of the Lower Keys. However, these lower altitude features are mostly obscured on GOES East satellite imagery due to high altitude cirrus clouds directed towards the Keys by a Tropical Upper Tropospheric Trough (TUTT) cell east of the Florida Peninsula. From synopsis, broad low-level ridging will continue to rebuild over the North Atlantic and support light to gentle southeast to south breezes across Florida Keys coastal waters. Rain chances will increase again late this week as a trough of low pressure moves into the Southeast United States and moves little through the weekend.
736 PM EDT Wed Jul 2 2025 Another cold front drops south from the Great Lakes on Thursday with drier weather for the Independence Day holiday weekend. As of 150 pm: Isolated to scattered diurnally fired deeper convection will continue to percolate along and east of upper trough axis, mainly across the Piedmont, through the late afternoon before ashing out aided by the progressive influx of much lower PWAT values. This will effectively cap any deep convective chances tomorrow as Piedmont maximums climb into the lower 90s and sfc dwpts fall below 70. This is thanks to an upper ridge building in across the OH Valley and bringing subsidence atop the forecast area.
Through the rest of the afternoon into the evening outflow from these storms will gradually form into an MCS and progress gently westward into the lower deserts of Pima and Pinal counties before trying to drift back east as it decays. However, chances for scattered showers and thunderstorms will return tomorrow before high pressure begins to build back in for Independence Day weekend with decreasing chances for precipitation and warming temperatures.
730 PM EDT Wed Jul 2 2025 - Warming trend back to the low 90s.
753 PM EDT Wed Jul 2 2025 A cold front will cross the area on Thursday, bringing a chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms. High pressure moves in behind the front, bringing wonderful weather for the 4th of July and into the weekend. Thursday will see a return of active weather as a cold front drops down from Canada. The front exits the region tomorrow evening and dry high pressure will build in behind the front, setting the stage for a beautiful 4th of July. Cooler temperatures and lower humidity expected on the 4th of July with northwest flow in place. Skies will be mostly sunny with high pressure building overhead.
Quiet conditions continue tonight under high pressure. High pressure aloft and at the surface continue to slowly build east into the region, as a mid/upper level trough slowly exits east of the forecast area. This trough is responsible for a frontal boundary that continues to slowly sink south through the CWA this evening and overnight. While along and ahead of it, very humid conditions will persist, with some isolated showers and storms developing, particularly along and south of the Highway 84 corridor. On Thursday, northwest flow aloft will exist across the region as we remain between the departing trough along the east coast and the high to the west. Otherwise, the remainder of the forecast area will remain dry, as highs warm into the low and middle 90s.
As convection slowly winds down tonight, the trough axis from the ejecting low will approach the Lower Colorado River. The trough axis will then be a focal point for convection Thursday, largely from the I-17 corridor eastward.
628 PM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025 - Heat and humidity continues through the end of the week with highs in the low 90s and heat indices in the mid to upper 90s.
A weak U/L trough and deep tropical moisture over west central and southwest Florida continues to produce numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms across the region. A very messy weather pattern expected for the rest of our work week as a weakening cold front drifts into Central Florida over the next couple of days.
(This evening through Thursday) Water vapor satellite imagery shows the upper low tracking into southern CA this afternoon. Behind it, weak upper level ridge has taken it's place. This will gradually be pushed to our east and southeast by Thursday as the next upper level trough advances towards the PacNW and northern CA. In addition to our routine nighttime/morning clouds that clear to the coast each afternoon, we will have slightly cooler high temperatures in the afternoon. Wind gusts look to be around 25-40 mph higher terrain, and inland gaps/passes, and for the aforementioned mountains RH values could fall to about 15-45% and recovering to 30-50% for the higher points of elevation.
658 PM EDT Wed Jul 2 2025 High pressure remains in control through the end of the work week with mostly dry conditions. Seasonal temperatures begin to trend warmer as we head toward the weekend. High pressure will be squarely over the forecast area on Thursday and most locations will remain dry throughout the entire day with some diurnal cumulus. Far to our north, near the Hudson Bay, a low pressure system will be swinging by. Its trailing cold front will swing down through the northern Great Lakes and may provide just enough forcing for a passing afternoon shower/storm for our counties north of I-70, particularly near the Columbus area. Overnight lows are a tad warmer, since the high will be shifting east and weak southerly flow will begin to return; temps fall to the mid/upper 60s.
520 PM MDT Wed Jul 2 2025 -General westerly flow through the period will support average to above average temperatures with chances for storms at times in the period -Hot and breezy Thursday, cooler this weekend Mean eastern Pac trough will support semi-unsettled westerly flow over the region through the period.
1001 PM EDT Wed Jul 2 2025 A cold front is expected to move into the area today and could then linger along or just off the coast through the weekend. Close to 2000 J/kg CAPE expected to develop during the afternoon with highs in the low 90s and dewpoints in the mid 70s.
With high pressure building in from the north, calm and mostly clear conditions are forecast overnight.
(Today) High pressure overhead will result in another warm, but dry day across the Tennessee Valley. Despite warm temperatures, it will be a rather comfortable day for early July as dewpoints stay in the low to mid 60s. With the lower dewpoint, heat index values stay close to the sfc temperatures and heat risk low.
156 AM EDT Thu Jul 3 2025 (06Z TAFS) Area of low pressure slowly moving over the area will bring ample moisture to the state.
157 AM EDT Thu Jul 3 2025 A cold front is forecast to stall in the vicinity of the local region today, lingering just off the southeastern coastline through the weekend. Today and Tonight: The mid-levels will consist of a trough slowly shifting away from the Southeast U. At the surface, a cold front will hover over or near our region today, then gradually shift offshore tonight. High temperatures will be in the lower 90s, except cooler at the coast. Low temperatures will be in the lower to middle 70s.
- Heat and humidity continues through the end of the week with highs in the low 90s and heat indices in the mid to upper 90s.
1120 PM MDT Wed Jul 2 2025 -General westerly flow through the period will support average to above average temperatures with chances for storms at times in the period -Hot and breezy Thursday, cooler this weekend Mean eastern Pac trough will support semi-unsettled westerly flow over the region through the period.
Today through next Wednesday: High pressure will continue to influence the region under a summer pattern. This ridge will gradually propagate towards our area later this week into the weekend and allow temperatures to warm to the mid 90s.
Prevailing flow along with surface level winds will become less defined this afternoon as low pressure situated ahead of the front begins to become more organized over the forecast area,leading to slower moving storms building throughout the day, with convection occurring ahead of the frontal boundary being capable of producing significant amounts of rainfall and resulting in localized flooding. High temperatures for today will be in the upper 80s and lower 90s with overnight low temperatures dropping down into the lower 70s over inland areas and in the mid 70s along the coastline.
A trough moving into the region will cause thunderstorms through much of the weekend.
147 AM EDT Thu Jul 3 2025 A cold front will cross the area on Thursday, bringing a chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms. High pressure moves in behind the front, bringing wonderful weather for the 4th of July and into the weekend. Thursday will see a return of active weather as a cold front drops down from Canada. The front exits the region tomorrow evening and dry high pressure will build in behind the front, setting the stage for a beautiful 4th of July. Cooler temperatures and lower humidity expected on the 4th of July with northwest flow in place. Skies will be mostly sunny with high pressure building overhead.
Upper ridging remains dominant over the south-central CONUS through the weekend while upper troughing across the far eastern CONUS persists.
- Fourth of July is forecast to be quite toasty, with temperatures in the low-mid 90s and increasing humidity. Upper ridge builds west of the area today, with amplifying upper level northwesterly flow. LLVL winds will generally be southwesterly, feeding more moisture and warmer temperatures into the area. The 4th of July continues to look like a warm one, with an upper ridge passing over the area, allowing modest southwesterly flow to kick in.
An upper ridge will shift east over central Nebraska today. Expect a very summer-like, hot and dry day with highs topping out in the low to mid-90s.
1222 AM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025 Updated at 1215 AM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025 - Quiet weather and decreased humidity through Thursday, with temperatures increasing into the low to mid 90s for most places on Independence Day. - Afternoon heat indices could reach the low 100s during the holiday weekend.
Weak upper-level troughing to the west will support additional widely scattered showers and thunderstorms today and this evening.
346 AM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025 - Dry and warm conditions in the low 90s today.
Moisture will increase over the higher terrain today ahead of a weak upper level trough. Will see a gradual increase in shower/tstm development, over the higher terrain, by early to mid aftn which will continue thru the early evening hours. For late tonight into Fri, the weak upper level trough will move across the area. There will be some mid level cooling in the aftn which could lead to some additional tstms behind the main trough but overall confidence is low at this point. There will also be some cooling aloft though, enough to allow for another round of convection in the slightly cooler and drier airmass.
High temperatures in the low to middle 90s. A broad ridge is in place across the western 2/3 of the CONUS with a weak trough to the east. The ridge will shift over the Mississippi River Valley by Independence Day keeping the Midsouth dry as temperatures trend warmer.
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: The backside of an intense upper level ridge will remain over the area today, with the warmest temperatures east of line from Opheim to Glasgow to Jordan. On the periphery of this trough, the southern portion of the Glasgow County Warning Area will see a few thunderstorms develop.
Meanwhile, an upper level trough axis that has been slowly moving across the Southeast U. At the surface this has resulted in a fractured high pressure that extends across the Atlantic and into the Gulf basin. This has left the Keys in a col region with an axis of dilatation across the Lower Keys. The Florida Keys lie right on the boundary between the residual SAL and the incoming moisture plume from the upper level trough. This slowly changes over the next 24 hours as the upper level trough makes its closet approach to the island chain.
213 AM EDT Thu Jul 3 2025 A cold front will approach from the west this afternoon with more showers and thunderstorms, a few of which could be strong to severe.
The 4th of July is shaping up to be hot, humid and hazy as the region remains under the influence of the ridge. Highs will climb in the low to mid 90s, with peak heat index values reaching up to 107 F.
Largely quiet weather is expected through the day as a weak and mainly dry backdoor cold front slowly sinks south toward our northern border, arriving early this evening.
422 AM EDT Thu Jul 3 2025 The region will be under the influence of high pressure through the next few days. A trough will drop south into the area bringing a chance of unsettled weather today. - Isolated showers and thunderstorms --------------------------------------------------------------- The area will still be under the influence of high pressure through the day. A trough will sag south through the area by the afternoon and into the evening. The NBM gives a 30% chance of thunderstorms over the area, mainly over the ridges to the east. High pressure will take over again with clearing skies Thursday night.
149 AM EDT Thu Jul 3 2025 - Warming trend back to the low 90s.
An upper trough is located over southern California this morning, and this is forecast to shift eastward over the state through this afternoon. While much of the stronger storms are likely to be in the afternoon, with the approach of the trough there could be storms during the morning hours as well, especially from around Flagstaff westward. After this trough moves by, the flow will turn more westerly as stronger ridging develops to our southeast and gradually shifts toward AZ.
With the western edge of the ridge to our east and the front north of the area, winds across SoFlo will remain generally southerly, veering SW for periods of time during the next couple of days. Heat indices could reach the low 100s, especially over interior and southwest areas this afternoon.
614 AM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025 Updated at 613 AM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025 - Quiet weather and decreased humidity through Thursday, with temperatures increasing into the low to mid 90s for most places on Independence Day. - Afternoon heat indices could reach the low 100s during the holiday weekend. (Tonight through Friday Night) High pressure remains situated from the ArkLaTex through the Ohio Valley, with drier air bringing quiet weather across Middle TN.
but will still temps a few deg warmer than seen on Wed.
Currently aloft, the ridge axis is over western North Dakota, with southwest flow in eastern Montana. This is due to a warm front sweeping through, and a strong thermal ridge. Friday thunderstorms will continue, mainly east of the Missouri River with the ridge axis. The eastern part of our CWA will reach the 90s again while the west is in the lower 80s.
737 AM EDT Thu Jul 3 2025 The region will be under the influence of high pressure through the next few days. A trough will drop south into the area bringing a chance of unsettled weather today. - Isolated showers and thunderstorms --------------------------------------------------------------- The area will still be under the influence of high pressure through the day. A trough will sag south through the area by the afternoon and into the evening. The NBM gives a 30% chance of thunderstorms over the area, mainly over the ridges to the east. High pressure will take over again with clearing skies Thursday night.
Upper level ridge axis sits over the Northern Plains with a weak upper level disturbance cresting the ridge over MT/ND. The upper ridge will begin to shift east today with a low level thermal ridge developing across the Northern Plains.
- Fourth of July is forecast to be quite toasty, with temperatures in the low-mid 90s and increasing humidity. Upper ridge builds west of the area today, with amplifying upper level northwesterly flow. LLVL winds will generally be southwesterly, feeding more moisture and warmer temperatures into the area. The 4th of July continues to look like a warm one, with an upper ridge passing over the area, allowing modest southwesterly flow to kick in. Temps and moisture will continue to increase on Friday, with temperatures reaching the low 90s and dewpoints increasing into the low 70s throughout.
9 inches will be the direct result of an upper level ridge becoming more centered over the central Gulf coast.