Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
540 AM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025 - Above average October warmth continues with minor (10-20%) rain chances early to midweek (Today through Monday) A quiet but warm weather pattern will remain across South-Central Texas as the region is in-between troughing over the Intermountain west and a weak upper level low off the Louisiana coast that looks to drift northward and weaken into the background flow by early Monday. The temperatures stay above average with the afternoon highs ranging from the mid to upper 80s for portions of the Hill Country to the low to mid 90s elsewhere. The morning lows will range from the low 60s to near 70 degrees.
Broad troughing persists over the western CONUS with southeastern Arizona sitting on the southern periphery of the cyclonic flow aloft. This coming work week will likely see a transition in the upper level pattern as a southeastern ridge will gradually drift west and build over the desert southwest.
At the same time, a series of weak easterly undulations will round the base of a broad ridge that extends from the Mississippi Valley to the central Atlantic. Earlier indications were that we would see the broad high build equatorward across the Keys, but the high looks to stay further north. As a result, while we will be under the influence of the high, we are not expecting freshening easterly breezes for the later half of the forecast period at this time. From synopsis, a combination of a stationary frontal boundary and a weak area of low pressure situated near the Bahamas will make for a messy weather pattern through the next several days.
Troughing is in place over the western U. with a broad area of high pressure extending from Texas into the Atlantic.
- Rain showers in the lower foothills and I-25 Corridor, areas of drizzle or light rain eastern plains. A few showers were developing in the higher terrain, about as scheduled. Thus, most impacts will be to the higher passes including Cameron Pass and Trail Ridge Road in RMNP (the latter already pre-emptively closed). Low clouds and weak upslope will stick around for the day, resulting in chilly conditions with high temperatures only reaching the lower to mid 50s on the plains, and a few spots may see temps not even hitting 50F! We'll have another chance of showers redeveloping Monday afternoon, but overall the forcing seems weaker than tonight. The low clouds are likely (70-80% chance) to hold in Monday night, limiting and frost or Frost Advisory potential.
Updated at 1245 PM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025 - Coastal Flood Statement in effect through Monday evening along the Lower Texas beaches.
156 PM EDT Sun Oct 5 2025 High pressure will maintain dry weather through Monday.
1144 AM MDT Sun Oct 5 2025 - A bit cooler and dry today, COLDER and cloudier on Monday.
- Rain is likely (60-80%) for much of the area between late tonight through Monday night along a slow moving cold front, and will be followed by cooler, more seasonable early fall temperatures. Temperatures as of 1 PM have reached the lower 80s, and highs in the mid to upper 80s look on target for today. This will be the last warm/windy day for some time given our calendar date, and transition towards a much cooler pattern in the week ahead. The transition zone, which includes Iowa City, the Quad Cities, Ottumwa, and Clinton could be cooler or warmer than forecast based on the frontal movement. Monday night, rains will continue, with the best synoptic lift passing through, resulting in the highest pops around 60-80 percent.
249 PM EDT Sun Oct 5 2025 High pressure will move offshore this afternoon. A strong cold front will move through during the middle of the week. High pressure will build back in behind the cold front for the end of the week. High pressure will shift offshore this afternoon. Much of the fog will be to the east of the Blue Ridge. High pressure will remain offshore tomorrow.
- Dry and warmer starting Monday. Models bring this trough to the southeast then eastward tonight into Monday. The partly cloudy to mostly clear skies should facilitate surface cooling with many locations in our forecast area having a forecast low temperature near or below freezing. The area least likely to observe sub-freezing temperatures is east/southeast of Billings where cloud cover will probably persist long enough to prevent the stronger cooling that is expected elsewhere.
- Freezing temperatures tonight into tomorrow morning.
- Much cooler temperatures Monday, with highs in the upper 50s to low 60s. Rest of this afternoon through tonight: Widely scattered, high-based showers are ongoing across portions of eastern NE as of 2 PM, with that activity occurring ahead of a cold front which has moved into northeast NE. Latest CAM guidance indicates a gradual increase in shower and thunderstorm development late this afternoon into evening along and to the south of the cold front as the boundary layer continues to destabilize. The showers and thunderstorms are expected to evolve into a band across southeast NE and southwest IA this evening (PoPs increasing to 60-90%), along and ahead of the southward-moving cold front.
1244 PM EDT Sun Oct 5 2025 Tranquil weather prevails through Monday courtesy of high pressure.
A building upper level ridge will bring us a mostly rain- free week, but daytime heating and increased moisture will lead to some isolated afternoon showers (and maybe a thunderstorm or two) along the coast.
202 PM MDT Sun Oct 5 2025 - Areas of frost/freezing possible tonight and again Monday night.
209 PM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025 - Isolated strong to severe storms are expected to form in vicinity of a cold front early this evening.
(Rest of Today and Tonight) The surface map this morning shows a high pressure ridging extending from the mid Atlantic coast through the Ozarks into TX, while a low pressure wave was situated over the northwest Gulf of America.
Southwesterly flow aloft generated by a ridge to our southeast and a trough over the eastern Pacific will keep pleasant Fall weather over the region for the first half of the week.
1144 AM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025 (Rest of Today and Tonight) The surface map this morning shows a high pressure ridging extending from the mid Atlantic coast through the Ozarks into TX, while a low pressure wave was situated over the northwest Gulf of America.
- Much cooler, albeit seasonable start to the new work week (20 degrees colder compared to today).
100 PM EDT Sun Oct 5 2025 High pressure off the Atlantic coast will continue to shift to the east as a cold front approaches North Carolina mid-week. High pressure is currently centered offshore over the Atlantic with ridging back across the southeastern United States, shifting slightly to the east over the next 24 hours.
144 PM EDT Sun Oct 5 2025 - Warmth gives way to increasing chance of rain by late Monday - Frost/Freeze conditions for mid-week - Warmth gives way to increasing chance of rain by late Monday Upper ridging and southwest flow persists today into Monday with 850 mb temps around 14-15C and highs in the 80s. Height falls occur on Monday as low level moisture return increases ahead of an advancing western CONUS trough, with deep moisture streaming up from the Gulf.
- A cold front will bring rain chances and some thunderstorms Monday afternoon and night.
High pressure situated over the mid Atlantic will remain dominate through the near term forecast with ESE flow along the base of the high prevailing. Through the night the ESE flow will advect in a decent amount of moisture from the Atlantic with HREF models showing dew points increasing from the mid to low 60s to the high 60s by day break. Unfortunately this will mean our relatively cool mornings will come to an end tomorrow as the higher dew points and additional cloud cover will restrict overnight lows to the mid to high 60s.
938 AM MDT Sun Oct 5 2025 - Much colder air surges south across the area today behind an early morning cold front with gusty north winds. - Warmer and drier conditions return for the week ahead. While snow will likely not impact roads or accumulate at elevations this low, it may bring a period of lower visibility.
From synopsis, a combination of a stationary frontal boundary and a weak area of low pressure situated near the Bahamas will make for a messy weather pattern through the next several days.
" A weak coastal trough and slightly above normal moisture will support isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms (20-40%) across South Texas through early this week. Into midweek, weak ridging aloft is expected to strengthen over the southern CONUS, leading to warm and mostly dry conditions, with only low-end rain chances anticipated. Temperatures will remain above normal through the forecast period, with highs in the low to mid-90s and overnight lows ranging from the upper 60s inland to the mid-70s along the coast. A gradual increase in humidity will make afternoons feel warmer as the week progresses.
222 PM EDT Sun Oct 5 2025 High pressure moves east through Monday.
A weak upper trough over western Louisiana and eastern Texas will continue to slowly drift westward and get absorb by a larger upper trough over the western US.
High pressure is centered just off of the VA coast extending WWD into E Conus with ERLY flow into AL today. Winds will continue to be a bit gusty at times with a tighter surface pressure gradients around the ridge.
128 PM EDT Sun Oct 5 2025 High pressure will linger through today before slowly drifting off the East Coast by Monday night.
This morning's UL pattern across the CONUS is a long-wave trough west and ridge east. This places Southern NM and Far West TX at the front base of the trough beneath deep albeit weak SW flow. Surface pressure trough across NM will limit winds as well, with just mild afternoon breezes.
- High temps will remain cooler today but will rebound to more normal values Monday and increase day by day. A few showers have popped over the eastern Uintas and over the northern mountains as the next upper level trough approaches from the northwest. After cold frontal passage, temperatures have dropped noticeably this afternoon anywhere from 10 to 15 degrees from what we saw last week. Whatever precip remains this evening will end overnight as the upper level trough continues to be draped across Wyoming down through Nevada and remains fairly stationary.
651 PM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025 - Isolated strong to severe storms are expected to form in vicinity of a cold front early this evening.
High pressures will bring dry and mild weather through early this week. Expect cooler and cloudier weather by midweek with stronger onshore flow. Low pressure will spin offshore over the latter half of the week then shift inland over the weekend, bringing in the best chance for rain in the next 7 days.
526 PM MDT Sun Oct 5 2025 - Areas of frost/freezing possible tonight and again Monday night.
623 PM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025 Updated at 621 PM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025 - Coastal Flood Statement in effect through Monday evening along the Lower Texas beaches.
The most significant impacts are expected in the Western Magic Valley, where a Frost Advisory is in effect for temperatures forecast to drop into the low to mid 30s. While higher elevation valleys have a high probability of reaching freezing temperatures, the Treasure Valley will likely remain slightly warmer, with lows in the upper 30s. A warming trend is forecast to begin Monday, bringing abundant sunshine and warmer afternoons through at least the middle of the week.
However, an inverted trough continues to weaken as it moves westward towards South Florida. This trough is resulting in winds being quite light and tending northeast to east across the Keys this evening, but with quite a bit of variability creeping in. This trough, along with earlier deep layered troughing across the Gulf has resulted in very high precipitable water. Very muggy conditions are in place with temperatures in the lower 80s and dew points in the upper 70s. The inverted trough will continue to weaken as it moves into the Keys region overnight. Meanwhile, a weakening inverted trough between South Florida and the Bahamas will continue to wash out through the overnight.
654 PM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025 A weak upper trough over western Louisiana and eastern Texas will continue to slowly drift westward and get absorb by a larger upper trough over the western US.
841 PM EDT Sun Oct 5 2025 High pressure sets up offshore tonight through the first part of this coming week. A strong cold front will move through during the middle of the week. High pressure will build back in behind the cold front for the end of the week. Skies will be clear tonight with calm winds as high pressure remains in control. Much of the fog will be to the east of the Blue Ridge. High pressure will remain offshore tomorrow.
218 PM PDT Sun Oct 5 2025 * Dry conditions with a warming trend are expected through midweek as high pressure builds across the region. * Weather at the end of the week may become wet and unsettled as a tropical system interacts with an upper-level trough moving into the West Coast. Quiet weather is expected in the near term as high pressure gradually builds over the region.
- Warmer than average through midweek, then seasonable post- front. CAPE values do remain in the 250 to 500 J/kg range over north and central Georgia with the higher values to the south meaning that although the moisture is definitely present, light showers will continue into the evening without becoming heavier with no real instability to drive them. With the increased cloud cover today, max temps have been lowered from the NBM to account for the lower than forecasted trend ongoing. Temps should only top out in the low 70s today.
While cooler temperatures persist today and tomorrow, temperatures look to warm up through the week with dry conditions developing alongside.
347 AM EDT Mon Oct 6 2025 High pressure finally exits into the Atlantic Ocean today and tonight. A strong cold front passes through later in the day Tuesday. Cool airmass moves back into the region behind the cold front for the middle to the end of the week. Mid Atlantic coastal high pressure will finally retreat eastward while the upper level ridge over the same area breaks down. Upper trough in Canada dives into the northern Great Lakes while the CWA finds itself in southwest flow aloft. Progressive upper trough drives a long awaited cold front into the southern Great Lakes Tuesday. Expecting some convective development ahead of the cold front in the PVA embedded in the 500mb flow.
- Drier conditions with cooler mornings will return during the latter half of this week. This low is expected to lift northward through today, then ultimately eastward as it encounters an advancing upper trough and cold front. Through the near term, much of the shower and occasional thunder activity will likely be focused in bands associated with this low as it gradually lifts across/nearby the area.
A cold front over the Plains and vort maxes associated with a broad mid-level trough will bring a period of wet weather to the FA today into Tuesday. The greatest concern will be primarily over the Kentucky Pennyrile Tuesday morning with training convection along a baroclinic zone as frontogenesis increases with a cold front approaching from the west. Temperatures will be much cooler from the thick cloud cover to start off the week with highs only in the 70s. After the cold front sweeps through Tuesday night, temperatures will remain near to slightly below normal through the remainder of the week with 850 mb temps around 8 to 10C.
1250 AM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025 - Isolated strong to severe storms are expected to form in vicinity of a cold front early this evening.
244 AM EDT Mon Oct 6 2025 High pressure dominates and continues the dry weather pattern with well above normal temperatures across the region through Monday.
145 AM EDT Mon Oct 6 2025 High pressure drifts east through Monday as a cold front moves into the Great Lakes region Monday night into Tuesday.
312 AM EDT Mon Oct 6 2025 High pressure finally exits into the Atlantic Ocean today and tonight. A strong cold front passes through later in the day Tuesday. Cool airmass moves back into the region behind the cold front for the middle to the end of the week. Mid Atlantic coastal high pressure will finally retreat eastward while the upper level ridge over the same area breaks down. Upper trough in Canada dives into the northern Great Lakes while the CWA finds itself in southwest flow aloft. Progressive upper trough drives a long awaited cold front into the southern Great Lakes Tuesday. Expecting some convective development ahead of the cold front in the PVA embedded in the 500mb flow.
Locations west of the Laramie Range will likely face cooler temperatures, with isolated locations coming close to freezing. Opted to keep freeze products out of the forecast tonight/Monday morning as ample cloud cover out west may keep temperatures from actually touching freezing. As a result, locations west of the Laramie Range and Converse County will likely cool below freezing early Tuesday morning. Due to this, went ahead and issued a Freeze Watch for Converse County and portions of Carbon County that have not yet hit freezing this season.
High pressure will gradually build into Arizona from the southeast through mid week.
- Slightly cooler temperatures behind a front mid-week with more normal temperatures. Upper level analysis shows that the upper ridge has shifted eastward from the mid Atlantic into New England. Temperatures will be in the low to mid 60s for lows. The southeast half of the CWA will likely be slightly cooler in the upper 70s to low 80s. The surface front will finally begin to push south as the northern upper trough begins to shift east.
A secondary surface cold front develops colocated with the upper level boundaries and migrates its way into the region Monday night. Isolated showers and thunderstorms linger through Tuesday afternoon; however, cooler, more stable behind the front eventually moves in dissipating storms through the afternoon hours.
High pressures will bring dry and mild weather through early this week. Expect cooler and cloudier weather by midweek with stronger onshore flow. Low pressure will spin offshore over the latter half of the week then shift inland over the weekend, bringing in the best chance for rain in the next 7 days. An upper level ridge will continue to shift into the Pacific Northwest through Monday and Tuesday. High temperatures rise a bit each day, reaching the low to mid 70s on Monday and Tuesday.
- Clear skies overnight tonight will bring most areas near or below freezing, with more Warnings expected.
- The low moves off to the north with only isolated rain chances left in its wake Tuesday.
Afternoon highs should range from the upper 70s over the higher terrain, to the low-mid 80s in valley locales.
126 AM PDT Mon Oct 6 2025 * Dry conditions and a warming trend are expected through midweek as high pressure builds across the region. * Weather at the end of the week may become wet and unsettled as a tropical system interacts with an upper-level trough moving into the West Coast.
The low pressure system is exiting to the northeast this afternoon leaving cooler temperatures and diminishing winds behind it.
-Cooler air mass returns climatologically normal temperatures with overnight frost/freeze potential. Midlevel troughing currently over central Canada will continue to progress eastward today and return an unstable air mass to the Great Lakes Region. A cold front parallel to midlevel heights will generate showers and even a few storms across the northwoods today. Overall conditions will be drying and turning quiet as high pressure returns a cool/Canadian air mass settles into the region.
-Cooler and more seasonal conditions should return by mid to late week in the wake of a cold front Tuesday night, with settled weather prevailing thereafter. Latest mesoanalysis early Mon mrng depicted broad, and highly positively tilted H500 troughing extending acrs much of the CONUS, w/ ridging residing over the Ern and NErn US coastline. At the sfc, inverted sfc pressure troughing was noted, extending SW to NE fm the OK/TX panhandle region, towards the Upper Midwest. Uncertainties still remain for now, and the approximate location of the highest QPF footprint may depend on where a modest H850 LLJ develops acrs the Mid-South later Mon evng.
- A cold front will bring showers and a few thunderstorms to central Illinois Monday into Tuesday night. Pressure gradients between high pressure over the SE U. and low pressure ejecting from the northern Plains to Southern Canada look to maximize late this afternoon or evening, promoting southerly flow and breezy conditions at the surface. A col pressure pattern between highs over the central Plains and off the mid-Atlantic coast and low pressure in SE Canada and northern Mexico into TX will develop for Monday, promoting much lighter winds for the most part as a cold front presses gradually southeastward into central IL. Any additional precipitation chances look slim after Tuesday as a broad high pressure rebuilds across the middle of the country.
- High temps will remain cooler today but will rebound to more normal values Monday and increase day by day. A few showers have popped over the eastern Uintas and over the northern mountains as the next upper level trough approaches from the northwest. After cold frontal passage, temperatures have dropped noticeably this afternoon anywhere from 10 to 15 degrees from what we saw last week. Whatever precip remains this evening will end overnight as the upper level trough continues to be draped across Wyoming down through Nevada and remains fairly stationary. A weak Rex Block will set up over the western CONUS on Tuesday with a closed low off the coast of California.
The disturbance off to the west will move northward toward Tennessee/Arkansas as a cold front will begin working eastward. The cold front will overtake the disturbance and sweep eastward, bringing higher rain chances across the northern and central counties by Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night.
The associated cold front spans from the Oklahoma Panhandle through western Kansas into far eastern South Dakota. This area of cooler temperatures could expand into south central Kansas depending on low cloud coverage, but decided to confine to areas primarily north of US-50 due to uncertainty in cloud coverage at this time. Confidence is higher in cooler highs areawide on Tuesday with forecast values five to ten degrees below average for this time of year.
- Warmer, drier conditions return mid-week. The upper-level trough will slowly drag across the region today, leading to most cloudy skies, continued precipitation chances, and much cooler temperatures. Precipitation chances will slowly taper off throughout the day today as the upper-level trough responsible for the cold, cloudy, and wet conditions moves off to the east. Behind this trough, an upper-level ridge is building and slowly moving eastward. This ridge should impact the region Tuesday, leading to clearing skies, dry conditions, and warmer temperatures. 700mb temperatures are expected to increase into the 3 to 5C range by late Tuesday, leading to daytime highs in the 50s and 60s, much warmer than the 40s and 50s expected Monday. The ridge will act to clear skies Monday night into Tuesday morning, leading to enhanced radiational cooling overnight.
The aforementioned area of low pressure remains along the Louisiana Gulf Coast this morning. Regional radar has shown consistent returns over Southeast Louisiana and Southern Mississippi over the past several hours in association with the low. This low is expected to slowly shift northward across the western sections of Louisiana today, resulting in rain chances spreading north and westward across the region. On Tuesday, an upper trough will dive south across the CONUS into our region ahead of an approaching cool front. The remnants of the Gulf low will get absorb into the trough as it moves into our northern zones.
305 AM EDT Mon Oct 6 2025 High pressure over the area today will move to the east on Tuesday.