Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
857 AM PDT Thu Apr 3 2025 Today and Friday will be a little warmer than recent days but still below seasonal averages as the extensive low pressure system persists over the western states. Then dry and warmer for the weekend with high temperatures warming to around average.
- Warming temperatures and the high April sun angle will lead to melting snow and ice during the daylight hours late this week. Surface analysis/water vapor imagery this afternoon shows low pressure along the Ontario/Quebec border with high pressure centered over southwest MN. And, that has been the main story since any lingering snow showers subsided several hours ago with the strengthening high pressure. So far, some of the highest gusts have been reported at Houghton, Copper Harbor, and Newberry, in the 30 to 35 mph range.
Upper-level troughing just to our east will slowly move into the central US into this weekend, with a few isolated snow showers this afternoon, mostly tapering off into Friday. High pressure will build across the West into the weekend bringing drier and milder conditions.
Deep trough over the Intermountain West in place but slowly moving east per satellite imagery. Northerly gradient pushes down the Snake Plain overnight, and the recent HRRR runs are trying to develop a weak pseudo-convergent band down through the Lower Snake Plain and Eastern Magic Valley through the late night, possible into the early morning hours. If this band would develop, it could be able to produce a quick skiff of snow overnight with temperatures falling below freezing. Dry and warmer conditions are expected over the weekend.
* Drier and warmer weather returns through the weekend.
Temperatures increased quickly underneath the partly sunny conditions in eastern ND, with highs in the low to mid 40s. Areas where snowpack is higher temperatures will be cooler, with highs in the 30s. Post Friday system, we start to get into a cooler pattern for the weekend, with temperatures below normal for this time of year.
Next short wave moves through the positively tilted upper level trough and split mid level trough tonight through Friday, along with an upper level jet streak. Most of the precipitation should fall as rain tonight with temperatures in the 30s, although some snow mixes in briefly north of I-90 and in the higher elevations. Cold front/secondary trough axis will move through Friday afternoon into the evening hours (slower than previous forecast), with the northern stream trough tracking east as well. Thus, not expecting much - if any - sleet or freezing rain. Generally less than an inch of snow expected for the higher elevation areas.
(Rest of today through Friday) A strengthening mid level ridge combined with a rather large area of high pressure at the surface will continue to dominate the weather pattern across South Florida through the rest of today and into Friday. With the surface area of high pressure remaining rather strong, this will also allow for the pressure gradient across South Florida to remain tight through the end of the week. High temperatures will remain on the warm side this afternoon and Friday as they will rise into the lower to mid 80s along the east coast, and up to around 90 across interior portions of Southwest Florida.
The longwave pattern continues to elongate the deep trough across much of the Rockies from Montana down to Baja California. Nothing of significance with this activity with limited accumulations outside the highest terrain above any passes. Warmer temperatures Thursday but a bit cooler slightly below average for this time of year on Friday behind the aforementioned surface boundary. Similar conditions Friday as the cold front picks up a bit more steam as it starts to slide east and southeast with the movement of the upper level trough.
200 PM EDT Thu Apr 3 2025 Waves of low pressure will result in more rounds of showers and storms, bringing the prospects for heavy rain and potential flooding into the weekend. Otherwise, maintained the highest PoPs in the far south and southeast with continued light to moderate rain. A cold front will move southeast across the area today. Showers and embedded storms over our southeast CWFA early this morning will taper by mid morning, with not much expected with the cold front itself during this period. Believe severe chances in our far south will be low given that the boundary slips south of the Ohio River with cooler weather allowing for lower instability. Highs will range from the upper 60s to the lower 70s.
An area of high pressure is currently in place over the state, bringing associated calm conditions and southeasterly flow that will shift southerly over the weekend.
Previous discussion: Will continue to see competing airmasses today as an upper trough tries to push a cold front east of the MS River Valley and high pressure over the western Atlantic stalls this eastward progression.
117 PM PDT Thu Apr 3 2025 Today and Friday will be a little warmer than recent days but still below seasonal averages as the extensive low pressure system persists over the western states. Then dry and warmer for the weekend with high temperatures warming to around average.
807 PM EDT Thu Apr 3 2025 A cold front bisecting PA from Southwest to Northeast this evening will sag slowly to the southeast, stalling out of just south of the region later tonight and Friday. Sfc cold front was located along a line from Near KBGM to KIPT, KUNV and KPIT at 23Z. The cold front won't quite make it to THV/LNS by midnight. The high pressure over central Canada and the Upper Great Lakes will slide eastward and keep a drying nrly flow going until Fri night when veers to the SE. Waves of low pressure riding east/northeast along the stalled to lifting frontal boundary will result in periods of soaking rainfall (with some embedded convective elements) this weekend. 50" across the south central ridges into the lower Susquehanna Valley (where it is needed the most).
Skies are anticipated to clear out even further tonight with temperatures dropping down towards freezing. Temperatures will likely hit the freezing mark in the Illinois and Rogue valleys, although remains a few degrees above freezing on the Umpqua Basin.
Dry northerly flow is setting in tonight as an upper level trough moves east.
Expect cooler than normal temperatures into the weekend with a slight chance for rain this evening for parts of Pima, Pinal, and Santa Cruz Counties.
Deep layered ridging is in place aloft with a fairly sharp upper ridge stretching north northeastward from the Yucatan to past the Florida Peninsula. Temperatures remain near 80 with dew points in the lower 70s. Strong high pressure off the southeast Atlantic Coast remain nearly stationary overnight resulting in continued fresh and gusty east to southeasterly breezes across Keys waters.
We are comfortably tucked up under a rather expansive upper ridge over the western Atlantic. With upper troughing to our west, deep southwesterly to southerly flow has been pushing moisture northward across the area. However, until the ridge breaks down and things get moving we do not expect much in the way of rain at least through Friday.
High pressure centered to the southwest in southern Minnesota leading to calm surface winds combined with moisture from melting snow would be the primary factors though spatial confidence is low. Temperatures increased quickly underneath the partly sunny conditions in eastern ND, with highs in the low to mid 40s currently. For areas where snowpack is deeper temperatures will be cooler, with highs in the 30s. Post Friday system, we start to get into a cooler pattern for the weekend, with temperatures below normal for this time of year.
418 PM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025 Tonight and Tomorrow: The western trough to eastern ridge pattern across the country will feature a strong 500mb ridge extending from the southwestern Atlantic into portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley, maintaining mostly quiet weather across much of the CWA. However far northwestern portions of the area, primarily near the ArkLaMiss Delta region, will see the potential for some strong to severe thunderstorms due to their closer proximity to the prevailing western CONUS trough. Isolated showers are possible elsewhere in northern Mississippi but rain chances remain very low in these areas due to the influence of the ridge.
Low temperatures during this time are forecast to drop into the mid to upper 60s (with a low chance of some areas remaining in the lower 70s) as southerly wind continues to advect warm, moist Gulf air into the Tennessee Valley. Streamwise vorticity in the low levels will also allow for an increased tornado threat with any storm that does develop (if any do develop as we continue to have low confidence in formation of storms).
546 PM EDT Thu Apr 3 2025 A secondary cold front will pass through this evening will bring seasonable conditions later tonight and Friday.
707 PM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025 Tonight and Tomorrow: The western trough to eastern ridge pattern across the country will feature a strong 500mb ridge extending from the southwestern Atlantic into portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley, maintaining mostly quiet weather across much of the CWA. However far northwestern portions of the area, primarily near the ArkLaMiss Delta region, will see the potential for some strong to severe thunderstorms due to their closer proximity to the prevailing western CONUS trough. Isolated showers are possible elsewhere in northern Mississippi but rain chances remain very low in these areas due to the influence of the ridge.
Broad low pressure system will continue to yield unsettled weather through Friday.
(Today) A strong area of high pressure off the GA/SC coast will subtly amplify across the Tennessee Valley and Southeastern United States today.
353 AM EDT Fri Apr 4 2025 High pressure over the Upper Great Lakes will drift by just to our north on Friday. Several waves of low pressure will then move out of the Ohio valley during the weekend to support a soaking rain.
High pressure off the Atlantic Coast will continue to control our short term weather with fresh to strong east to southeasterly breezes expected through the weekend. For mid-week, the forecast is becoming more clear that a cold front will pass through the Keys area.
349 AM EDT Fri Apr 4 2025 Weak high pressure will build into our region today with partly sunny skies and temperatures in the mid 40s to mid 50s.
High pressure brings a dry and relatively seasonable day tomorrow, before another storm system moves in for the weekend. A cold front is moving through this afternoon and it is bringing along a few light showers. The atmosphere mixes efficiently behind it and the highest temperatures have been occurring after its passage due to this. Ceilings have lowered and they have enshrouded some of the higher passes in fog. As the front comes through, this low moisture will scour out quickly and temperatures will briefly rise, before cooling down overnight. Ridging builds into the region tomorrow and skies will clear.
A northern stream midlevel trough will eject across the northern Plains late tonight, shunting the next cold front through the forecast area.
302 AM EDT Fri Apr 4 2025 - Warming temperatures and the high April sun angle will lead to melting snow and ice during the daylight hours late this week. Under high pressure through the day today, expect light winds and highs in the 40s. A cold front draped south of a low pressure passing along the shores of Hudson Bay will bring increasing cloud cover through the day, but given the dry air expected over the UP, no precipitation is expected prior to 00Z. Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb closed low over northern Mexico with a deep trough in the Rockies and plains 00z Sat.
156 AM EDT Fri Apr 4 2025 High pressure over the Upper Great Lakes will drift by just to our north on Friday. Several waves of low pressure will then move out of the Ohio valley during the weekend to support a soaking rain.
An area of low pressure is located over northern New England with the associated frontal boundary extending southwestward from this low through western Tennessee and into eastern Texas. Closer to home here in Florida, as we have seen the past few days, broad upper ridging centered off the Carolina coastline extends from the northeastern gulf, over Florida and then further eastward to Bermuda. On the surface, a 1030 mb high pressure center near Bermuda ridges westward through the western Atlantic, across northern Florida and into the northeastern gulf.
Split flow remains in place to the west of H5 ridging across the southeastern CONUS, which is serving to enhance the north to south trajectory of colder air as it moves into the Northern Plains heading into the weekend.
403 AM CDT Fri Apr 4 2025 - Rain showers will continue across the area today into tonight and may briefly change to snow as temperatures drop to near or below freezing.
Temperatures across the island chain have already breached 80 degrees while retaining humid dewpoints in the lower to mid 70s. KBYX radar detects a spattering of light showers in and around the waters surrounding the Lower and Middle Keys making for an even more oppressive and moist feeling day than yesterday. High pressure in the western North Atlantic continues to control our sensible weather pattern in the short term. From synopsis, a pronounced high pressure system over the North Atlantic continues to sustain fresh to strong east to southeasterly breezes across the Florida Keys waters.
741 AM EDT Fri Apr 4 2025 An area of low pressure is located over northern New England with the associated frontal boundary extending southwestward from this low through western Tennessee and into eastern Texas. Closer to home here in Florida, as we have seen the past few days, broad upper ridging centered off the Carolina coastline extends from the northeastern gulf, over Florida and then further eastward to Bermuda. On the surface, a 1030 mb high pressure center near Bermuda ridges westward through the western Atlantic, across northern Florida and into the northeastern gulf. The high pressure between Bermuda and the Carolinas will keep this frontal boundary and its effects north of the area, allowing for rain-free conditions and warm temperatures to continue over Florida through the weekend.
1030 AM EDT Fri Apr 4 2025 - Warmer and sunny today, precip chances return tonight and Saturday. Current forecast remains on track with high pressure overhead providing clear skies and light winds. Pattern Synopsis/Forecast Details: Expansive ridging covering much of the eastern CONUS will amplify through the period as longwave troughing digs across the southwest U. High clouds will spread in from southwest to northeast through the afternoon as an elongated cyclone works closer to the region into tonight. As precipitation associated with the system begins to move out Saturday afternoon, northwest winds on the backside of the cold front will usher in cooler temperatures and light lake effect precip through Saturday evening.
Nonetheless much greater nrn stream suppression and slower kickout of deep layer swrn upper trough looks to steer second round of heavy rainfall well south of the area Sat night. Thereafter robust upper troughing carves out from the lakes through ern Canada which will yield unseasonably cool and at times showery wx as series of disturbances drop through amplified ern NOAM flow.
It will be dry today through Saturday afternoon with warmer afternoon temperatures. Saturday forecast highs will be in the low to mid 70s for the interior westside valleys, and low to mid 60s east of the Cascades. An upper trough and front will approach the area late Saturday night.
Warm and dry weather expected through Saturday with high pressure over the region.
Broad low pressure system will continue to yield unsettled weather through the evening.
547 AM CDT Fri Apr 4 2025 (Today) A strong area of high pressure off the GA/SC coast will subtly amplify across the Tennessee Valley and Southeastern United States today.
Late Friday night and into early Saturday morning, a cold front will begin pushing southeast across the area.
High pressure will build into the region through the remainder of the week, allowing conditions to dry out and warm up. Wet and cooler conditions are on track to return towards the end of the weekend and continue through mid-week as troughing settles into the Pacific Northwest.
638 AM CDT Fri Apr 4 2025 - Rain showers will continue across the area today into tonight and may briefly change to snow as temperatures drop to near or below freezing.
551 AM CDT Fri Apr 4 2025 - Next round of rain this morning will affect mainly south central Kansas, which is where the highest probability of 0.
402 AM CDT Fri Apr 4 2025 - Next round of rain this morning will affect mainly south central Kansas, which is where the highest probability of 0.
621 AM EDT Fri Apr 4 2025 - Warmer and sunny today, precip chances return tonight and Saturday. Pattern Synopsis/Forecast Details: Expansive ridging covering much of the eastern CONUS will amplify through the period as longwave troughing digs across the southwest U. High clouds will spread in from southwest to northeast through the afternoon as an elongated cyclone works closer to the region into tonight. As precipitation associated with the system begins to move out Saturday afternoon, northwest winds on the backside of the cold front will usher in cooler temperatures and light lake effect precip through Saturday evening.
721 AM EDT Fri Apr 4 2025 - Warming temperatures and the high April sun angle will lead to melting snow and ice during the daylight hours late this week. Under high pressure through the day today, expect light winds and highs in the 40s. A cold front draped south of a low pressure passing along the shores of Hudson Bay will bring increasing cloud cover through the day, but given the dry air expected over the UP, no precipitation is expected prior to 00Z. Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb closed low over northern Mexico with a deep trough in the Rockies and plains 00z Sat. Troughing moves into the upper Great Lakes on Saturday.
(Today through Saturday night) As the upper level low continues it's eastern progression, rainfall proceeds for portions of the Texas Panhandle and spreads further north with time. The cold front will arrive later this evening and enter in from the northwest. Wind speeds will increase and flow from the northeast behind the cold front. As soon as the cold front moves through it will reinvigorate shower activity and rain will transition to snow as temperatures plummet. However, an expansion of the watch product is not out of the question if there is an overall slower progression of the upper level low, or we receive higher snowfall rates.
Despite this block to daytime heating, temperatures along the island chain have made it into the lower to mid 80s with ever present dewpoints in the lower to mid 70s. High pressure in the western North Atlantic continues to control our sensible weather pattern.
Forecast: A large subtropical ridge is sitting over the top of the southeast centered just off the Atlantic coastline of Georgia. This feature continues to remain mostly stationary, getting pumped a bit by a stalled upper level low to the west that is getting pinched by a rossby wave break over the Alaskan panhandle and beginning to slowly meander to the east.
Otherwise clear skies and dry through the weekend as an upper level ridge builds in from the west. Limited warming today as the eastern periphery of the aforementioned ridge keeps the area under northerly flow aloft, with highs in the mid to high 50s in our lower elevations (30s to 40s in our higher elevations). Warming trend this weekend as the ridge sets in right overhead.
The snow band continues to diminish, and with MRMS probability of subfreezing road temperatures below 30 percent in all but a few isolated spots, think impacts from our snow are pretty minimal. Split flow remains in place to the west of H5 ridging across the southeastern CONUS, which is serving to enhance the north to south trajectory of colder air as it moves into the Northern Plains heading into the weekend.
104 PM EDT Fri Apr 4 2025 - Warmer and sunny today, precip chances return tonight and Saturday. Current forecast remains on track with high pressure overhead providing clear skies and light winds. Pattern Synopsis/Forecast Details: Expansive ridging covering much of the eastern CONUS will amplify through the period as longwave troughing digs across the southwest U. High clouds will spread in from southwest to northeast through the afternoon as an elongated cyclone works closer to the region into tonight. As precipitation associated with the system begins to move out Saturday afternoon, northwest winds on the backside of the cold front will usher in cooler temperatures and light lake effect precip through Saturday evening.
The western trough to ridge pattern across the country continues a strong 500mb ridge extending from the southwestern Atlantic into portions of the lower Mississippi Valley continues to dominate our coverage area.
1230 PM CDT Fri Apr 4 2025 - Next round of rain this morning will affect mainly south central Kansas, which is where the highest probability of 0.
1255 PM CDT Fri Apr 4 2025 - Rain showers will continue across the area today into tonight and may briefly change to snow as temperatures drop to near or below freezing.
143 PM EDT Fri Apr 4 2025 - Warming temperatures and the high April sun angle will lead to melting snow and ice during the daylight hours late this week. Under high pressure through the day today, expect light winds and highs in the 40s. A cold front draped south of a low pressure passing along the shores of Hudson Bay will bring increasing cloud cover through the day, but given the dry air expected over the UP, no precipitation is expected prior to 00Z. Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb closed low over northern Mexico with a deep trough in the Rockies and plains 00z Sat. Troughing moves into the upper Great Lakes on Saturday.
255 PM CDT Fri Apr 4 2025 Latest surface analysis indicates a warm front from just south of Fort Smith,. KLZK radar indicates developing convection across the western two thirds of the forecast area, with the stronger activity located north of the warm front. All hazards are possible near and to the south of the warm front through the evening hours. By late Saturday, a cold front will move eastward through the forecast area, and will bring the heavy rainfall ahead of it and east of the state.
With aforementioned high pressure overhead, sunny skies and weak/calm winds have been observed through most of the day. Temperatures tonight will dip into the low to mid 30s, then rebound into the 40s/50s for Saturday.
1212 PM CDT Fri Apr 4 2025 - A cold front will move through the region thorugh tonight bringing with it an area of snow or rain/snow.
240 PM CDT Fri Apr 4 2025 - Areas of spotty, light rain will gradually transition to rain/snow mix to all snow behind a cold front this afternoon. TODAY: This afternoon we will see light, spotty rain showers slowly transition to a rain/snow mix to all snow behind a cold front that will pass through the area.
Late tonight/early Saturday morning, LIFR conditions are expected in the lowest/narrow river valleys west of the Cascades (similar to this morning), but is not expected to impact area terminals.
A highly amplified upper level pattern is in place as deep troughing extends from western Canada into northern Mexico and upper level ridging is centered in the southwest Atlantic.
- A cold front moves through the region tonight, with a chilly blustery day expected for Saturday.
Satellite shows higher cirrus has been moving through the area today as high pressure dominates the next two days.
(This evening through Saturday night) We continue to be squeezed between a dome of high pressure off the Florida Atlantic coast and low pressure over the desert southwest. The clockwise circulation around the high and the counterclockwise rotation around the low have been actively drawing the warm, moist air from the Gulf and pushing it up into the midwest.