Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A low pressure system will pass to our north today and will bring a slight chance of precipitation to the SF Bay Area and northward.
- Cold front moves through on overnight/Sunday bringing more seasonable temperatures. - Rain chances late in the week? (Today and tonight) Another hot day today with highs expected to be warmer than yesterday and record or near-record temperatures this afternoon. The cold front currently in Kansas will begin to push southward tonight as a mid-level trough moves from the Canadian prairies into the Great Lakes region.
A series of cold frontal passages starting Sunday will see temperature finally cool off bringing us closer to near normal temperatures for the new week. (This evening through Saturday night) Model agreement continues to see the upper-level ridge and associated high pressure hold strong over the Panhandles for the end of the week.
Pleasant weather will settle into the region as strong high pressure builds in over the southeast states and ridges southward over Florida. Comfortable temperatures with lower humidity are also expected through the weekend with daytime highs in the low to mid 80's and overnight lows dipping into the 60's and low 70's. By Sunday evening, the high pressure has moved into the western Atlantic near Bermuda, while an inverted trough moves through south Florida. Farther to the north, an area of low pressure moves eastward through the New England states on Sunday evening with a cold front extending southwest through the Ohio River Valley.
Similar to yesterday, mostly sunny skies foster afternoon highs in the lower 80s. Temperatures respond by dipping into the low 50s away from the immediate coast.
1225 AM CDT Sat Oct 12 2024 (Rest of Tonight) High pressure is in control of the weather pattern. Latest guidance still has lows pretty much on track from the middle 40s to the lower 50s. Area rivers, lakes and water bodies will remain warmer than the air temperature and with clear skies and light winds this condition will support patchy fog near water features toward daybreak Saturday morning. Broad ridging will remain to our west, centered over Northwest Mexico. A surface cold front will push into New England, extending west across the Ohio River Valley into Western Kansas.
Morning lows in the lower to upper 60s with afternoon highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s expected.
128 AM EDT Sat Oct 12 2024 High pressure will build from the north bringing cool, dry weather over the next couple days.
1151 PM CDT Fri Oct 11 2024 (This evening through Saturday night) Ridging remains centered along the Arizona-New Mexico border. The low relative humidity values should allow for diurnal temperature spread of 30 degrees or more in areas away from marine influences. Overnight lows shouldn't be any cooler than they were this morning, and possibly a degree or two warmer.
Otherwise for the short term, upper level ridging will keep warm and dry conditions in place for the weekend. Will also transition the high risk of rip currents to a moderate risk today and low overnight into Sunday.
(Today through Sunday) An upper level ridge continues to dominate over Texas this morning. Dewpoint temperatures are 5-10 degrees higher, and are in the lower 50s to the middle 60s. High temperatures will continue to be above normal and should be a couple of degrees warmer than yesterday. Lows tonight will also be a bit warmer, but still near normal. With temperatures a little warmer both today and tomorrow, minimum relative humidity will be a little lower. There may be elevated fire weather conditions with the low RH and fuel dryness we've been seeing.
1205 AM CDT Sat Oct 12 2024 (The rest of tonight) As of mid evening, eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas remained on the eastern periphery of mid/upper level high pressure centered over the Desert Southwest. Through the overnight hours, high pressure ridge is progged to sag southward slightly which will allow for ongoing high clouds across the Central Plains to sag southward as well and into the CWA late tonight. In response, with dewpoints holding in the upper 40s/lower 50s, low temps tonight are forecast to be a little warmer compared to this mornings lows.
(Today and tonight) Another dry and mild day across the region as high pressure remains in control of the pattern. Aloft, we will continue to have a N-NW flow through the midlevels as a large high pressure ridge will be over TX.
1219 AM CDT Sat Oct 12 2024 (This evening through Saturday) Upper level ridging will remain overhead tonight and tomorrow, the eastern arm of the upper high that remains centered west of El Paso. The weak mid level trough and associated moisture that resulted in isolated thunderstorm activity each of the last two evenings has shifted to the southeast with deep dry air back over the forecast area should result in a precip-free forecast in the short term portion of the forecast period. Another relatively mild night is in store under the ridge and with generally light south to southwest surface winds, although some rural areas prone to cooling will do better in that regard than most of the forecast area.
There is a cold front on the horizon as the period ends. While no precipitation is expected, much cooler air will follow.
1150 PM CDT Fri Oct 11 2024 (Tonight through Saturday night) Overall, quiet weather conditions will persist through the short- term period as ridging continues to build aloft. Moisture will be limited and mostly confined to the lower levels resulting on rain free conditions across South Texas. Aside from this, expect warm temperatures over the weekend, with highs in the mid 80s to mid 90s range, and overnight lows in the low 60s to low 70s. The High risk of rip currents and the Coastal Flood Advisory across area beaches remains in effect through Saturday morning.
848 PM PDT Fri Oct 11 2024 An approaching cold front will bring light rain to the North Bay Saturday.
Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Fairly zonal upper-level flow is draped across the northern Great Lakes early this morning with ~1022mb high pressure in place across much of nation's midsection. Pattern Synopsis and Forecast: Troughing currently over Hudson Bay continues to break down midlevel ridging spanned across the central U.
(Today through Sunday) High pressure is currently centered over the Southeast and will remain that way through this afternoon. As the high slides southwest, a weak trough will develop in the Mid-Atlantic states.
114 AM EDT Sat Oct 12 2024 Temperatures falling under high pressure and calm surface conditions. In the upper levels, a broad trough is over the northern tier from the Midwest to the Northeast. A weak trough is over the Southeast. At the surface, high pressure is centered over the Southeast.
1235 AM EDT Sat Oct 12 2024 High pressure will remain in control of the weather through the weekend.
530 AM MDT Sat Oct 12 2024 Aviation Section Updated Thanks to the passage of a weak front, expect cooler temperatures today across the plains, though the Southwestern Valleys will see temperatures similar to yesterday since the front stalled out north of Helena.
635 AM CDT Sat Oct 12 2024 (Today through Sunday Night) An upper ridge continues centered over the southwest U. An upper low will develop in the Great Lakes Sunday.
620 AM CDT Sat Oct 12 2024 (Today through Sunday) High pressure is centered over northern GA tonight with clear skies across the area.
635 AM EDT Sat Oct 12 2024 High pressure moving off the coast will turn winds to the south and allow for a warming trend.
944 AM CDT Sat Oct 12 2024 - Cold front passage today, with winds turning northwest, gusting to 35 mph in the afternoon. The higher gusts will be mainly along and west of Highway 83.
Under generally sunny skies, high temperatures later today should rise into the lower 80s with light southerly winds.
(Today through Sunday) A broad upper trough will dig over the E U. At the surface, a high pressure ridge over the SE U. A cold front will approach NW GA by Sunday evening. After a cool morning today, daytime highs will rebound into the upper 70s across most of the area, with highs in the lower 70s in the NE mountains. Low temperatures tonight will drop mostly into the lower to mid 50s, with upper 40s in the NE. High temperatures on Sunday will climb a few more degrees, with readings ranging from the mid 70s in the NE to the lower to mid 80s elsewhere.
1030 AM EDT Sat Oct 12 2024 High pressure will remain in control of the weather through the weekend.
357 AM MDT Sat Oct 12 2024 Thanks to the passage of a weak front, expect cooler temperatures today across the plains, though the Southwestern Valleys will see temperatures similar to yesterday since the front stalled out north of Helena.
950 AM EDT Sat Oct 12 2024 High pressure moving off the coast will turn winds to the south and allow for a warming trend.
Increased moisture (though low relative to a couple weeks ago) will also keep overnight temperatures tonight about 5 degrees warmer than last night with much of the region not dropping below the mid to upper 60s. Increased ridging aloft will allow for temperatures to rise even further on Sunday with most of the area getting into the mid 90s and areas west of the Brazos River may even get into the upper 90s Sunday afternoon.
647 AM CDT Sat Oct 12 2024 - Cold front passage today, with winds turning northwest, gusting to 35 mph in the afternoon. The higher gusts will be mainly along and west of Highway 83.
635 AM EDT Sat Oct 12 2024 High pressure will remain in control of the weather through the weekend.
Beautiful conditions today, so get out and enjoy it! (Today through Sunday) A broad upper trough will dig over the E U. At the surface, a high pressure ridge over the SE U. A cold front will approach NW GA by Sunday evening. After a cool morning today, daytime highs will rebound into the upper 70s across most of the area, with highs in the lower 70s in the NE mountains. Low temperatures tonight will drop mostly into the lower to mid 50s, with upper 40s in the NE. High temperatures on Sunday will climb a few more degrees, with readings ranging from the mid 70s in the NE to the lower to mid 80s elsewhere.
704 AM EDT Sat Oct 12 2024 (Today and tonight) Another dry and mild day across the region as high pressure remains in control of the pattern. Aloft, we will continue to have a N-NW flow through the midlevels as a large high pressure ridge will be over TX.
448 AM CDT Sat Oct 12 2024 - Cold front passage today, with winds turning northwest, gusting to 35 mph in the afternoon. The higher gusts will be mainly along and west of Highway 83.
621 AM CDT Sat Oct 12 2024 Today and Tonight: Dry weather will continue through tonight and temperatures will be warmer than normal. Early morning surface analysis had a 1021mb high ridging across our CWA from the northeast. The ridge axis will shift southeast through tonight and result in a light return flow back across our area that will serve to gradually increase moisture.
Current readings are only about a couple degrees warmer than around sunrise earlier. Fresh breezes this afternoon will become gentle to moderate tonight, and then light to gentle on Sunday as the high pressure in place over the southeastern U.
Today and Tonight: Dry weather will continue through tonight and temperatures will be warmer than normal. Early morning surface analysis had a 1021mb high ridging across our CWA from the northeast. The ridge axis will shift southeast through tonight and result in a light return flow back across our area that will serve to gradually increase moisture.
We have previously discussed how the moisture in our vertical profile seems to be contained to the lower levels with much drier air in the mid to upper levels, but CIMSS MIMIC PWAT indicates that some moisture has been able to build back in as PWAT values in the distant Straits are approximately 2 inches.
Latest satellite WV imagery is showing an upper level low centered over the CA/OR border early this morning. Southerly winds have accelerated across coastal ridges of Humboldt and Del Norte, with gusts of 20 to 30 mph early this morning.
639 AM CDT Sat Oct 12 2024 (Today through Sunday) High pressure is currently centered over the Southeast and will remain that way through this afternoon. As the high slides southwest, a weak trough will develop in the Mid-Atlantic states.
609 AM CDT Sat Oct 12 2024 (Today and tonight) A persistent upper ridge along with southwesterly flow will bring mostly sunny skies and hot temperatures to the area today.
Expansive ridging over the Atlantic waters and a low- level trough axis will guide tropical moisture from the Caribbean towards South Florida on Sunday. Overnight lows will drop into the low to mid 70s tonight.
628 AM CDT Sat Oct 12 2024 (Today through Sunday) An upper level ridge continues to dominate over Texas this morning. Dewpoint temperatures are 5-10 degrees higher, and are in the lower 50s to the middle 60s. High temperatures will continue to be above normal and should be a couple of degrees warmer than yesterday. Lows tonight will also be a bit warmer, but still near normal. With temperatures a little warmer both today and tomorrow, minimum relative humidity will be a little lower. There may be elevated fire weather conditions with the low RH and fuel dryness we've been seeing.
Another dry and warm day is in store for the area due in thanks to surface ridging and dry airmass. (Today and tonight) Another dry and mild day across the region as high pressure remains in control of the pattern. Aloft, we will continue to have a N-NW flow through the midlevels as a large high pressure ridge will be over TX.
120 PM EDT Sat Oct 12 2024 High pressure will remain in control of the weather through the weekend.
(This evening through Sunday Night) Record high temperatures still appear possible tomorrow in many locations, as compressional warming ahead of the cold front continues to look likely. Highs tomorrow will range in the low to mid-90s, with most record highs on the books falling somewhere in that ballpark. Otherwise before the cool down, look for lows tonight to range in the low to upper-60s.
Hot temperatures continue today, while the rest of the week should be slightly cooler. (This evening through Sunday night) Current satellite shows upper level ridging in full effect over the CWA. Tonight through tomorrow morning, a cold front will pass through the combined Panhandles with breezy, northeasterly winds flowing behind it. Lows will stay in the upper 40's and 50's, while further north and into the Oklahoma Panhandle lows will drop to the lower 40's due to clearer skies that enhance radiational cooling.
An upper low centered over s-central Oregon this morning will increase clouds across the area as it tracks to the east-southeast today.
(Rest of today through Sunday) A weak warm front remains in place over the Florida straits south of high pressure over the SE US. Overnight lows will remain in the low to the mid 70s.
1227 PM CDT Sat Oct 12 2024 (Today and tonight) A persistent upper ridge along with southwesterly flow will bring mostly sunny skies and hot temperatures to the area today.
Showers continue to move across the area this morning as the upper level low slowly tracks east overhead. The center of the low lies almost right over Crater Lake, and won't be heading anywhere fast through the rest of the day, while showers will continue but will taper off in coverage and intensity through the rest of the day. An approaching low pressure system will bring elevated southerly winds and southwesterly swell to area waters into this evening.
Dry and warmer than average conditions will continue through the first portion of the work week.
As for our area, satellite shows an W-E band of high clouds over east central Nevada and the lower CRV.
219 PM CDT Sat Oct 12 2024 - Near-record warmth today before a cold front moves in this evening and filters in more seasonable temperatures in for the next several days.
205 PM CDT Sat Oct 12 2024 - Dry and breezy conditions will overspread central Illinois Sunday behind a departing cold front.
1254 PM CDT Sat Oct 12 2024 (Today through Sunday) An upper level ridge continues to dominate over Texas this morning. Dewpoint temperatures are 5-10 degrees higher, and are in the lower 50s to the middle 60s. High temperatures will continue to be above normal and should be a couple of degrees warmer than yesterday. Lows tonight will also be a bit warmer, but still near normal. With temperatures a little warmer both today and tomorrow, minimum relative humidity will be a little lower. There may be elevated fire weather conditions with the low RH and fuel dryness we've been seeing.
322 PM CDT Sat Oct 12 2024 - Widespread freezing temperatures early this week during the morning hours. Upper level trough continues to push eastward in southern Canada, while an upper level ridge continues to amplify in the western United States. Cooler air will continue to funnel down from Canada early this week before the ridge out west begins to build into our area mid to late week.
(This evening through Sunday) The forecast area will remain under mid/upper level ridging through Sunday. However, an upper level trough moving from Manitoba to the western Great Lakes will drive a cold front southward into the forecast area early Sunday. How strong the push to the front is will go a long way to the high temperature forecast for tomorrow. Recent model track record with these fronts undercutting the upper ridge has not been too good, generally being too aggressive with the southward movement.
1202 PM CDT Sat Oct 12 2024 (Today through Sunday) High pressure is currently centered over the Southeast and will remain that way through this afternoon. As the high slides southwest, a weak trough will develop in the Mid-Atlantic states.
103 PM EDT Sat Oct 12 2024 High pressure moving off the coast will turn winds to the south and allow for a warming trend.
200 PM EDT Sat Oct 12 2024 High pressure will remain in control of the weather through the weekend.
1051 AM MDT Sat Oct 12 2024 Aviation Section Updated Thanks to the passage of a weak front, expect cooler temperatures today across the plains, though the Southwestern Valleys will see temperatures similar to yesterday since the front stalled out north of Helena.
140 PM MDT Sat Oct 12 2024 The plains will remain cooler today, with the Southwest Valleys staying warmer.
Showers continue to move across the area this morning as the upper level low slowly tracks east overhead. The center of the low lies almost right over Crater Lake, and won't be heading anywhere fast through the rest of the day, while showers will continue but will taper off in coverage and intensity through the rest of the day. However the higher terrain could end up partly obscured for brief periods of time until 18z. An approaching low pressure system will bring elevated southerly winds and southwesterly swell to area waters into this evening.
Updated at 201 PM CDT Sat Oct 12 2024 - Cold front moves through on overnight/Sunday bringing cooler temperatures. - Rain chances return late in the week (Tonight and Sunday) After near record heat today, a cold front will enter northwest Oklahoma this evening and make its way south across the area tonight into the day Sunday. Cooler temperatures however will be confined to mainly northern half of the area as farther south afternoon highs will once again climb well into the 90s. Along with cooler temperatures, drier air will also filter south into the area. So even with the cooler temps, the combination of breezy northeast winds, low afternoon humidity (around 20%) and ongoing worsening drought conditions, some elevated fire weather concerns will linger.
The fog should lift shortly after sunrise, and we can expect mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies through the morning, then continually increasing clouds from southwest to northeast through the afternoon as a warm front approaches the region. 75" to 2" PWAT values are expected to enter the region starting tonight and lingering into Thursday across the region as the warm front continues northeast and an area of low pressure moving east off the Rockies deepens as it passes across southern Minnesota / central Wisconsin through Thursday.
30 Previous Discussion: /Through Thursday/ Above-normal temperatures will continue for the next few days as a mid level ridge remains planted overhead. The ridge will weaken slightly Wednesday night and Thursday as an upper trough sweeps across the Plains. The trough will help push a weak front southward towards the Red River during the day Thursday. Veering winds and the resulting downslope flow ahead of the front will offset the lower heights aloft, perhaps even adding a degree or two to high temperatures Thursday afternoon. The more likely scenario is that subsidence from the ridge will overcome any convective attempts, keeping everyone hot and rain free for another day. The upper ridge will strengthens this weekend resulting in our hottest days of this period.
An upper trough offshore has brought cooler temperatures in the interior and the return of stratus to the coast early this morning. Inland, the trough is gradually cooling temperatures, with mid to high 80s expected in most the interior valleys. Afternoon winds are expected to be gusty in interior Lake and Mendocino counties, with NBM showing around a 60-80 percent chance for peak gusts over 30 mph this afternoon, with better chances and stronger winds in the ridges.
650 AM EDT Wed Aug 14 2024 (Today through Thursday) Upper-level ridging will begin to break down today in response to an amplifying trough expanding across the eastern US and western Atlantic. Temperatures will continue to rise into the low to mid 90s across much of the region each afternoon.
530 AM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 (Today and tonight) Expect hot temperatures again today as a strong upper level ridge builds over the area.
A very weak low pressure system still remains over the Northern Rockies this morning causing some isolated showers over portions of north central Idaho and west central Montana.
137 PM EDT Wed Aug 14 2024 High pressure brings dry weather with a warming trend through Thursday. High pressure will continue in control of weather conditions tonight into Thursday. Comfortable temperatures with low humidity tonight should range from the upper 50s lowlands, into the lower 50s northeast mountains. Above normal temperatures are expected on Thursday, generally in the lower 90s lowlands, ranging into the lower 70s northeast mountains.
144 PM EDT Wed Aug 14 2024 - One more sunny day, then showers/storms Thursday - Rain chances persist into the Weekend - One more sunny day, then showers/storms Thursday Latest surface analysis shows high pressure over Lower Michigan and an upper ridge nosing in from the west. We'll see highs in the mid 80s today along with humid conditions due to dewpoints in the lower to mid 60s. Farther west, low pressure was beginning to develop over the northern Plains and this low will move east tonight to the upper MS Valley. Clouds will increase tonight as the low moves closer to the Great Lakes.
1232 PM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 (Today through Thursday) An inverted trough is noted on GOES 15 water vapor imagery early this morning, mainly over northern Mexico and hugging the Rio Grande. High pressure will remain in control through the short term period.
The upper trough bringing the storms today will be moving off to the east tomorrow leaving only enough instability in the Davis Mountains for storms to form.
(Tonight through Thursday night) Midlevel ridging over the region remains the dominant weather driver for the short term period, which will lead to mostly dry conditions across Deep South Texas.
Of these, the latter storms have the highest chances for severe weather, with damaging winds the greatest concern.