Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Partly cloudy, mild and dry conditions prevail along the Florida Keys on this Tuesday evening, with temperatures in the lower to mid 70s, dewpoints near 70, and winds on land from the north around 5 mph across the Lower Keys, and near calm elsewhere. Surface analysis depicts weak high pressure over the western Atlantic and Florida peninsula, with a cold front draped from the Southern Appalachians to South Texas. A massive area of Arctic high pressure dominates much of the CONUS to the north of this frontal boundary, but fortunately those wintry conditions will not be reaching the Keys.
Highs tomorrow likely won't be above freezing, so the impacts to travel will likely persist through tomorrow night.
A 1050mb high pressure center located over North Dakota, which is the main driver of this cold airmass, will continue to move southward today through tonight into the the central Plains.
Current surface analysis shows arctic frontal boundary remaining mostly along the lee of the Rockies, with high pressure centered over western ND. Upper level analysis shows low pressure sliding southeast across MN, with northwest flow over our area and a ridge along the west coast states.
Surface wetbulb analysis shows readings of 30-31 degrees down into the northern part of Marion and Winston Counties (as of 08Z), with air temps just below freezing. There's still some room for temps to drop in Lamar/Fayette/Walker Counties to produce some light frozen or freezing precip for a short time this morning, but confidence there remains lower.
948 AM EST Wed Feb 19 2025 High pressure weakens through the day today as an upper level low crosses the region tonight into Thursday. High pressure returns Thursday night and persists into the weekend. Dry weather will continue through the day today as high pressure gradually weakens. A deepening upper level low enters from the west tonight bringing widespread snow showers to the region from west to east tonight and into early Thursday. Snow will transition into lake effect snow on Thursday as the upper low exits to the east and boundary layer flow turns northwesterly.
Today-Tonight: For today, a secondary upper level low will move south through the region. While this low is rather moisture starved, associated lift will support periods of flurries/light snow through this morning and afternoon.
Models continue to move this area of low pressure and associated cold front eastward toward Florida through the day. Some cooler and drier air will filter into Florida on a northerly wind flow as strong high pressure over the Dakotas slowly moves southeastward toward the mid-Atlantic states through the end of the week and into the first half of the weekend.
(Today) In the wake of yesterday's winter storm, arctic high pressure has expanded across the region with bitterly cold temperatures areawide.
511 AM EST Wed Feb 19 2025 * Well-below-average temperatures remain in place through the end of the week as high pressure at the surface drifts east toward PA. * An upper low will track across Pennsylvania on Thursday, bringing light snow for all of the region.
A cold front will move through today. The cold front will quickly move through this afternoon, shifting the winds back to NW and allowing the clouds to start clearing.
Temps should fall to the lower 20s with a few teens sneaking in over the northern most reaches of the area while the south shore areas will be at and below freezing with a few areas reaching around 28F. Temps will be much the same for Thu night but wind chills will tack on about 5 degrees, that's not saying much as it will still be fridged.
706 AM EST Wed Feb 19 2025 Cold and dry weather is expected through early Thursday as a ridge of Canadian high pressure builds into our region.
Another low pressure system will move quickly across the Great lakes and Ohio Valley tonight, bringing a chance for snow showers to the entire area. The closed low pivots into the Ohio Valley later this evening with scattered to numerous snow showers expected. While temperature remain cold, much of the forcing will occur in temperatures cooler than the DGZ, decreasing the size of the flakes. Nevertheless, given the high snow ratios, cold temperatures, and timing, an SPS has been issued to cover the threat for slick roads later this evening. The high will then extend across the area through the end of the week.
626 AM EST Wed Feb 19 2025 High pressure weakens through the day today as an upper level low crosses the region tonight into Thursday. High pressure returns Thursday night and persists into the weekend. Dry weather will continue through the day today as high pressure gradually weakens. A deepening upper level low enters from the west tonight bringing widespread snow showers to the region from west to east tonight and into early Thursday. Snow will transition into lake effect snow on Thursday as the upper low exits to the east and boundary layer flow turns northwesterly.
As of this writing, a cold front lies lined up right along the coast, and will push east across the area this morning and pass out of the area by this evening. For most areas, showery, light, warm front precipitation will give way to steady precipitation as the front approaches, then showers will return behind the front passes and continue through tonight. Up to a foot of snow is expected in the Cascades, where a Winter Storm Warning remains in effect due to the high risk for heavy inch-per-hour snowfall rates. As mentioned, post-frontal showers will continue into this evening as the upper level trough passes overhead, then diminish tonight as the trough exits the region.
401 AM EST Wed Feb 19 2025 * Well-below-average temperatures remain in place through the end of the week as high pressure at the surface drifts east toward PA. * An upper low will track across Pennsylvania on Thursday, bringing light snow for all of the region.
- A slow warm up is expected as the stationary front becomes a warm front beginning today. It will take a few days for downsloping winds from the west to chew through the snowpack before above freezing temperatures can be reached. Tonight through Thursday night, the stationary front over the Rockies retreats east as a warm front as a large ridge to the west presses up against it.
An air mass replacement in the wake of the overnight cold front passage brought temperature drops of 20-30 degrees from yesterday's highs. Current early morning temps were in the lower to mid 20s at Greenville and Cleveland, MS and Monticello, AR with brisk northerly winds up to 20-25 mph. Brief periods of freezing rain, sleet, and snow were reported at northern sites, but reported impacts so far have been mostly north of our CWA in far northern MS. Area residents are reminded to check road conditions, and be careful of wet roads while temperatures are near or below freezing.
Lift ahead of the mid level wave/trough will bring light snow or flurries early this morning and into the mid morning hours before it moves into Iowa and northern Missouri by early afternoon.
For almost all the panhandles the temperatures will not go above freezing for either today or Thursday.
A strong ridge of high pressure remains anchored across the west-central Atlantic with the western periphery of this ridge extending westward across Florida, including the Florida Keys. Another day of benign weather is expected with mostly sunny conditions and highs in the lower 80s. The weather feature that will drive the really nice weather today will be a strong ridge anchored across the west-central Atlantic with the western periphery of this ridge extending westward into Florida. Moisture begins to increase tonight as a cold front moves southward through the Gulf resulting in slight chances returning to the forecast. The cold front will press southeastward Thursday with slight chances remaining in the forecast.
North winds through the column over Ontario CAN will continue to push the troughing southwestward this morning. Upper low begins to depart during the day on Thursday, with northerly flow and lingering moisture contributing to snow showers across the shorelines of Lakes Michigan and Huron, especially the former.
These winds are expected to peak briefly early this morning, with gusts from 40 to 50 mph over the coast headlands and exposed ridges in Del Norte and Humboldt counties. locally higher over the more prominent ridges. High pressure is expected to builds in downstream of the upper level trough tonight through Thursday. Ridging late the the week will generally bring warmer and drier conditions with possibly even a ragged and shallow marine layer along the coast.
922 AM EST Wed Feb 19 2025 Cold and dry weather is expected through early Thursday as a ridge of Canadian high pressure builds into our region.
As the system crosses north-central FL, it will drag a cold front across the peninsula. The frontal boundary will clear South FL Thursday morning bringing cooler and drier conditions for the second half of Thursday. Afternoon highs on Thursday will range from the low to mid 70s along and north of Alligator Alley, to around 80 over the far southern peninsula.
Temps will remain below freezing for most areas this afternoon. Temps will be a tad warmer as well.
Clouds to our west will shift overhead early today as the upper trough off the coast moves inland. Even mixed precipitation will be possible across the Lower Snake River Plain, potentially even as far north as Pocatello briefly. The Albion Mountains and Bear River Range will see the most accumulation, with up to 9 inches and closer to a foot along the highest peaks. Winds will increase overnight into Thursday as the center of the low shifts through Southeast Idaho. Precipitation will drop off fairly abruptly Thursday afternoon as the low shifts further south into Utah and a ridge of high pressure builds in behind it from the northwest.
Air temperatures tonight will be similar to those early this morning, but winds will be somewhat lower as the center of the high pressure ridge settles closer to the area and the pressure gradient relaxes.
1150 AM EST Wed Feb 19 2025 Weak high pressure builds toward the region today and tonight. Low pressure tracks south of the area Thursday.
Dewpoints in the lower 70s add to the warm conditions felt outside but are thankfully shy of values usually seen later during wet season. Meanwhile, convection bubbling in the central Gulf associated with an approaching cold front is spitting out cloud debris blanketing north and central mainland Florida with a thick high cirrus deck. Tonight will be the figurative calm before the Gulf cold front's arrival sometime tomorrow. Despite a period of light and variable winds and mostly clear skies, temperatures will still be capped by the dewpoint with lows in the lower 70s (with likely a couple inland exceptions in the upper 60s).
Meanwhile, H20 vapor imagery was indicating an upper low moving into Minnesota. Meanwhile, a 140-150 knot jet streak will round the base of the low across Tennessee.
Mejia (Today) In the wake of yesterday's winter storm, arctic high pressure has expanded across the region with bitterly cold temperatures areawide.
This plus strong cold advection of an arctic airmass will allow for temperatures to drop into the lower to middle 20's inland and upper 20's to lower 30's nearer the coast. Thursday night will be another bitterly cold night in the lower to middle 20's for nearly all locations.
40+ degree highs to start the work week for most - Little if any precipitation chances through the weekend OVERVIEW: one more night of bitterly cold air for the region with the persistent northwest flow/troughing a loft. This will get a shove eastward after Thu though, with height rises/upper level ridging nudging in from the west. The EFS remains very bullish on holding onto the ridging for the region, keeping us under a warmer regime. The GEFS, on the otherhand, favors a return to upper level troughing - and downturn in temps. WPC cluster analysis shows this well, with nearly all the GEFS in the trough outcome and all the EPS in the ridging.
Thursday will be generally warmer, with highs in the mid 30s to low 40s.
239 PM CST Wed Feb 19 2025 - Wind chills in the negative teens to around -20F possible tonight - WInd chills in the negative single digits to negative teens tomorrow night - Warming trend this weekend with dry conditions Winds will become light tonight as the ridge axis of the area of high pressure moves across the area and allow lee troughing to develop across eastern Colorado. Lee troughing will increase in intensity tomorrow with breezy southeasterly winds expected by tomorrow afternoon.
1037 AM EST Wed Feb 19 2025 * Well-below-average temperatures remain in place through the end of the week as high pressure at the surface drifts east toward PA. * An upper low will track across Pennsylvania on Thursday, bringing light snow for all of the region.
A cold front is currently pushing its way through the state. We will have much colder air behind this front as a strong high pressure settles in across the eastern half of the country.
Attention then turns to lake effect/enhanced snow, most organized in the 06-18z window on Thursday when 0-2km theta-e lapse rate values trend negative within a developing long lake axis thermal trough. Potential failure points could be embedded disrupting mesolows and/or an earlier breakdown of the lake aggregate trough.
- Warmer weather is expected this weekend. This would keep overnight low's slightly warmer, but with high temperatures struggling to hit the 20's today, single digit lows are still expected.
1006 AM PST Wed Feb 19 2025 A cold front will move through today. The cold front will quickly move through this afternoon, shifting the winds back to NW and allowing the clouds to start clearing.
(Rest of Today) Overnight snowfall has tapered off as the parent low pressure system tracks eastward into Florida today. The big question is going to be how much we warm up today, as this will be our big chance to melt away the snow before an extended freezing period.
As a result, my previous forecasts estimating most of the area getting above freezing were incorrect, and temperatures either remained steady today or decreased with only portions of Marshall, DeKalb, and Jackson counties reaching above 32 F after the snow. Coupled with the continuing cloud cover and drier air pushing southward, the threat for freezing fog should be low. Areas in higher elevation that will be covered by the low cloud deck will experience reduced visibility, but it should not be widespread enough to warrant any products.
342 PM EST Wed Feb 19 2025 Low pressure over the Upper Mississippi Valley to track southeast across the area overnight into Thursday, bringing light snow to the area.
Issued by National Weather Service Gray ME 212 PM EST Wed Feb 19 2025 Weak high pressure builds toward the region through tonight. Low pressure tracks south of the area Thursday and Thursday night.
844 AM PST Wed Feb 19 2025 Warmer today for most places.
Upper air analysis depicts upper low centered over MN/IA/SD with ridge building over the western US. Wind chills will drop to 20 to around 35 below at times, with the lowest values mostly from northwest into central SD.
These southerly winds won't necessarily help warm us up as they will be circulating the cold air around the high to our east.
With plenty of gaps in sky coverage, temperatures on land have already risen to the lower 80s at some observation sites. Outside our waters, convection bubbles in the central Gulf along the edge of a slow moving cold front trudging towards the state of Florida. Highs in the lower 80s are expected today as light to moderate breezes blow out of the southeast to south. As the area of high pressure in control of our winds retreats ahead of the approaching Gulf front, breezes will slacken and veer overnight. They will then freshen out of the northwest to north as the cold front bears down on our CWA sometime tomorrow afternoon.
Widespread snow with sleet and pockets of freezing rain has been observed this morning, with higher snowfall totals creating snow covered roads in northern Malheur County/Baker County and light ice accumulation in the Lower Treasure Valley. A brief switch back to snow for most locations will occur later tonight on the back side of the low pressure system, but accumulations will be minimal.
(This evening through Thursday) The bitterly cold arctic air remains steadfast over west central Texas this evening and will help keep widespread below freezing temperatures in the forecast through tomorrow morning. High temperatures on Thursday are expected to be slightly warmer, generally in the upper 20s to mid 30s across the Big Country, and in the mid 30s to low 40s elsewhere.
1241 PM EST Wed Feb 19 2025 * Well-below-average temperatures remain in place through the end of the week as high pressure at the surface drifts east toward PA. * An upper low will track across Pennsylvania on Thursday, bringing light snow for all of the region.
Also, a trough of much colder air aloft will be associated with this trough.
Wind chill values will struggle to get above freezing the entire day Thursday, with a few areas in the north barely reaching 20 degree wind chill.
1208 PM CST Wed Feb 19 2025 (Rest of Today) Overnight snowfall has tapered off as the parent low pressure system tracks eastward into Florida today. The big question is going to be how much we warm up today, as this will be our big chance to melt away the snow before an extended freezing period.
132 PM EST Wed Feb 19 2025 High pressure weakens through the day today as an upper level low crosses the region tonight into Thursday. High pressure returns Thursday night and persists into the weekend. Dry weather will continue through the day today as high pressure gradually weakens. A deepening upper level low enters from the west tonight bringing widespread snow showers to the region from west to east tonight and into early Thursday. Snow will transition into lake effect snow on Thursday as the upper low exits to the east and boundary layer flow turns northwesterly.
1219 PM PST Wed Feb 19 2025 A trough of low pressure will move eastward across Northern and Central Nevada this afternoon into Thursday morning, resulting in periods of precipitation.
Low pressure across the northern Gulf will move east along the old boundary and emerge out into the western Atlantic tonight. The low will then move up the east coast on Thursday.
19) OKC: 25 (1918) Lawton: 27 (1929) Wichita Falls: 30 (1929) The ridge axis slides south-southeastward tonight to eastern Nebraska, eastern Kansas, and northeastern Oklahoma. The coldest air temperatures will be co-located in proximity to the center of the high pressure system, which means parts of north- central Oklahoma (e.
907 PM EST Wed Feb 19 2025 Weak high pressure builds toward the region through tonight. Low pressure tracks south of the area Thursday and Thursday night.
A trough of low pressure will move eastward across Northern and Central Nevada this afternoon into Thursday morning, resulting in periods of precipitation.
The upper trough has moved across the area and will progress eastward as high pressure builds over the central US. Tomorrow will not be any better as highs may struggle to get out of the 30s with wind chills in the low 30s during the day. The coldest nigh temperatures wise will be Thursday night as calming winds and ideal radiational cooling should result in lows in the low to mid 20s with wind chills in the teens once again.
An upper trough is over the area and will shift eastward today. Post-frontal showers will decrease in coverage and intensity this evening, then taper off tonight as the trough exits the region.
Midwest low pressure brings a period of light snow while sliding just south of the Mi border tonight. H5 geopotential charts and absolute vorticity fields support amplification and midlevel low pressure deepening through portions of northern IN/OH between 00-06Z tonight.
The temperatures aren't going to help much with the melting as highs on Thursday will be in the low to mid 20s.
Dry weather returns behind today's cold front. (This evening through Thursday) The cold front continues to pass through the Bay Area, with linger light rain and drizzle being reported.
655 PM EST Wed Feb 19 2025 Low pressure over the Upper Mississippi Valley to track southeast across the area overnight into Thursday, bringing light snow to the area.
Calmer and warmer weather is expected for the next couple days with light rain again focused along the North Coast this weekend. Together, both factors will likely allow for cool overnight lows below 40 even along the coast, but freezing conditions will most likely be restricted to far inland areas such as Trinity County.
609 PM EST Wed Feb 19 2025 Weak high pressure builds toward the region through tonight. Low pressure tracks south of the area Thursday and Thursday night.
A broad band of showers moved through the area today ahead of the the cold front, producing a few reports of gusty winds and some widespread rain. Showers will continue to clear out of the coastal waters through the rest of the evening as a cold front pushes southeast through the area.
With the low pressure center moving away to the east, conditions are improving for area waters.
448 PM CST Wed Feb 19 2025 - Wind chills in the negative teens to around -20F possible tonight - WInd chills in the negative single digits to negative teens tomorrow night - Warming trend this weekend with dry conditions Winds will become light tonight as the ridge axis of the area of high pressure moves across the area and allow lee troughing to develop across eastern Colorado. Lee troughing will increase in intensity tomorrow with breezy southeasterly winds expected by tomorrow afternoon.
While overnight lows fall to the low to mid teens, breezy winds will bring wind chills down to the -5 to 5 degree range.
Temperatures tomorrow likely stick near freezing and below for the Delta, mid 40s F for the Pinebelt, and 30s F in between.
Mid-level heights will continue to increase across the area throughout today as the main trough departs to our east. The net effect will be progressively warmer temperatures through the remainder of the week along with dry weather as the residual continental (high pressure) airmass loiters over the region.
(Today) Arctic air continues to gradually filter into the mid TN Valley this early Thu morning, as a very large dome of high pressure builds into the northern/mid Plains states. Temps will struggle to reach the freezing mark this afternoon, with many spots remaining in the 20s.
Moisture from Lake Michigan will continue to stream across the northeastern counties through the evening which will likely keep a few flurries around along with the higher cloud cover. Surface winds are expected to drop near calm with all but the northeastern counties likely to see mostly clear skies which increases concern for some of the coldest temperatures of this cold stretch with overnight lows in the low single digits.
1108 PM CST Wed Feb 19 2025 - Wind chills in the negative teens to around -20F possible tonight - WInd chills in the negative single digits to negative teens tomorrow night - Warming trend this weekend with dry conditions Winds will become light tonight as the ridge axis of the area of high pressure moves across the area and allow lee troughing to develop across eastern Colorado. Lee troughing will increase in intensity tomorrow with breezy southeasterly winds expected by tomorrow afternoon.
Temperatures will begin a warming trend, reaching into the high teens to low 20s this afternoon. North to northwest winds through the column will bring in warmer 850 mb temps and drier air today, making it hard for high accumulations from LES.
Light winds combined with clearing skies could lead to some patchy freezing fog developing in far western parts of the fa with the highest potential in NW OK. The potential for dense fog is low so no major impacts are expected from the freezing fog late tonight into Monday morning.
Over time tonight, the southeasterly winds will veer to the SW and this will erode away the low level moisture when it happens. The energy will send a cold front through turning winds westerly tonight and then northwest on Monday.