Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
- Next cold front arrives tonight, with cooler temperatures expected Thursday. The main change if there really is much of one, is to speed up the timing of the cold front tonight and to increase temperatures today as south-southwesterly flow will strengthen a bit, allowing some more downslope component to the wind. Ahead of the frontal boundary, compressional warming will send temps into the lower to middle 80s for most, with perhaps a few mid to upper 80s in the southwestern CWA. The latest HREF 00Z suite of members indicate some light rain is possible along the cold front Thursday morning before shifting east in the afternoon.
Updated at 236 AM CST Wed Feb 26 2025 - Weak cold front moves through today with slightly cooler temperatures.
Discussion: Yesterday was such a nice day, we shall repeat it again today! Fairly zonal flow in the upper levels but closer to the ground we'll be in gentle southwesterly flow advecting a warmer airmass north across much of the region. With how well we've been mixing the atmosphere out the last couple of days, hedged the temperatures a tad warmer and blended in HRRR and NBM 10th percentile for the dewpoints, it will be a lovely day to be outdoors.
There has been some chatter today about a wintry mix or even freezing drizzle in far northern areas, including northwest Ohio. Heights and temperature profiles take a dip Thursday as a trough aloft extends from Manitoba, south through the Smokies.
1136 PM CST Tue Feb 25 2025 (This evening through Wednesday night) After a fickle fog forecast this morning, skies have cleared and highs have reached the low 70s.
Air temperatures are dropping into the lower 60s and upper 50s. The airmass across the ArkLaTex this evening is not only noticeably warmer than previous nights, but drier as well. This is due to persistent surface ridging over the area that will shift eastward over Florida/Georgia, pointing surface flow into an on-shore orientation.
Showers arrive with a cold front late today into Thursday.
- A weak cold front will move through the area Thursday with a few showers possible along and ahead of the boundary. - Wet weather possible for Lundi and Mardi Gras (Tonight through Thursday night) High pressure is over the northern gulf coast this afternoon and will be sliding east through tonight. With high pressure overhead, very light winds are resulting. As high pressure shifts east tonight, a light onshore flow will begin and dewpoints will begin to increase into Wednesday. During Wednesday/Wed night, a short wave will move across the Great Lakes with an associated cold front sweeping southeast across the central sections of the country. The weak cold front will move across the local area Thursday with a few showers possible.
1113 PM CST Tue Feb 25 2025 Updated at 1109 PM CST Tue Feb 25 2025 -Above normal temperatures will continue through Wednesday with highs in the low to mid 70s areawide.
1027 PM CST Tue Feb 25 2025 - Early spring weather continues this afternoon, followed by a weak cold front and possible light rain showers overnight. - Above normal temperatures are on tap for the remainder of the week with highs generally in the low 60s.
1200 AM MST Wed Feb 26 2025 - Cooler Wednesday with the western mountain snow coming to an end.
358 AM EST Wed Feb 26 2025 Weak high pressure over the region will push offshore late today. A cold front will cross the region Thursday and Thursday night. High pressure will move offshore today.
High pressure will produce dry weather and mainly light winds over the next couple days.
- Cold this weekend with highs near freezing. Nonetheless spread of remnant EML atop return H85 theta-e ridge does suggest low chc of elevated thunder potential far south for a time this aftn, similar to whats observed currently upstream on nose of LLJ in srn IA and perhaps with better low level moisture in time, will elicit a more robust response far southeast late aftn before sys exists east. Thereafter a general springtime roller coaster as a more potent clipper sys wraps up through the nrn lakes Fri bringing a windy but mild day followed by a sharp cold frontal passage Fri evening.
307 AM CST Wed Feb 26 2025 -Breezy today with clouds clearing behind a cold front.
630 AM EST Wed Feb 26 2025 (Today through Thursday) Warm and sunny conditions continue today as high pressure builds over the Gulf. Meanwhile, at the surface, a large cold front will drape across the eastern CONUS from New England into the Southeast.
419 AM MST Wed Feb 26 2025 - High temperatures will be considerably cooler today than those seen recently while gusty winds of 20 to 30 mph are possible for the southern half of the forecast area.
319 AM MST Wed Feb 26 2025 - Cooler Wednesday with the western mountain snow coming to an end.
- A cold front is forecast to move through Wednesday night and early Thursday with a chance for rain (30-70% probability), followed by a modest downturn in temperatures. A positively tilted upper trough over the upper Midwest and northern plains early this morning is rotating through a larger scale trough over eastern North America. Moisture will be limited, but the system is expected to be strong enough to result in a band of light precip along its cold front which will pass southeast through our area late tonight and early Thursday. The cold front will exit southeast in the morning and take the precip with it, but after a break, additional showers are expected to develop. Despite the cooler surface air mass behind the front, very cold air moving over the area aloft will again bring steep lapse rates.
411 AM MST Wed Feb 26 2025 - Cooler today with near normals temperatures and scattered mountain snow showers.
Behind the front, a slight cooler and drier Pacific airmass wl overspread the FA, with highs on Thu mostly in the 60s.
- Two cooler days today and tomorrow (still above average).
- Cold this weekend with highs near freezing. Nonetheless spread of remnant EML atop return H85 theta-e ridge does suggest low chc of elevated thunder potential far south for a time this aftn, similar to whats observed currently upstream on nose of LLJ in srn IA and perhaps with better low level moisture in time, will elicit a more robust response far southeast late aftn before sys exists east. Thereafter a general springtime roller coaster as a more potent clipper sys wraps up through the nrn lakes Fri bringing a windy but mild day followed by a sharp cold frontal passage Fri evening. Rain falling from mid cloud bases will take some time to saturate the lower layers.
500 AM CST Wed Feb 26 2025 -Breezy today with clouds clearing behind a cold front.
515 AM CST Wed Feb 26 2025 - A cold front will bring an area of rain to the Quad State this afternoon into tonight.
- A weak cold front will move through the area Thursday.
505 AM CST Wed Feb 26 2025 (Tonight through Thursday Night) Very warm and very dry conditions are expected to continue this short-term, as surface ridging really builds in to our south. Highs today could push 80 degrees in some locations ahead of this cold front, before finally beginning to drop into tomorrow. This upcoming cold front also continues to trend drier and drier, as the upper-level pattern won't allow for enough saturation time before it moves through. In turn, there's a chance that this cold front moves through tomorrow, and many locations not see a single drop of rain.
542 AM CST Wed Feb 26 2025 - Above normal temperatures today, then cooler on Thursday.
A decent ridge/valley split is showing up in observations (mid 30s valley areas and lower/mid 40s in higher terrain). Surface dewpoints have been dropping steadily and are in the lower to mid 30s over much of northern Alabama and southern middle Tennessee. Temperatures when you wake up this morning should likely reach their minimum just before daybreak dropping into the lower to mid 30s in valley locations and upper 30s to lower 40s elsewhere. Though there is some high cloudiness over northern and southern Arkansas west of the area, most guidance shows the bulk of this high cloud cover remaining over TN/Kentucky today. Cloud cover and cold air advection associated with the weak front moving through the area on Thursday will keep highs in the low 60s.
70s along the Lower Texas Coast amid the onshore winds. That's when a cool front is expected to sweep through the forecast area resulting in slightly cooler temperatures.
High pressure remains over the area producing rain-free conditions and seasonal temperatures today. High pressure building over the eastern gulf waters will hold through Thursday.
High pressure and drier conditions with a general warming trend will persist into the weekend.
- Above normal temperatures today, then cooler on Thursday.
406 AM CST Wed Feb 26 2025 - Slightly cooler today into Thursday, but still mild with breezy and dry conditions also expected.
531 AM CST Wed Feb 26 2025 Updated at 521 AM CST Wed Feb 26 2025 - Weak cold front moves through today with slightly cooler temperatures.
pdf Morning fog developments are dispersing which will lead to clear skies and warmer temperatures for today. Leaned toward warmer end of NBM guidance given dry airmass and full sun today. Increasing high clouds tonight as temperatures fall into the mid 40s across SE GA to the lower 50s toward the coast and NE FL toward the St.
Temperatures should remain above average ahead of the front with highs today reaching the middle to upper 70s, with only a minor cool down on Thursday with highs in the lower to middle 70s.
Expect northerly winds and cooler temperatures today and Thursday as a cold front pushes through from the north.
630 AM EST Wed Feb 26 2025 Weak high pressure over the region will push offshore late today. A cold front will cross the region Thursday and Thursday night. High pressure will move offshore today.
A pattern shift toward cooler and more active weather is then anticipated by the weekend.
256 AM MST Wed Feb 26 2025 - Cooler today with near normals temperatures and scattered mountain snow showers.
Despite continued northerly flow and associated cool advection, ample solar insolation has promoted temperature rebounding from their minimums in the upper 60s, now hovering in the lower 70s at most island communities. Surface analysis places a sprawling area of high pressure centered just south of the Gulf Coast, with associated ridging producing a 4C inversion based at around 850 mb in the 12z sounding at KEY. Using our local meteorological expertise, highs should struggle to get out of the lower 70s this afternoon, with winds likely staying in a north to northeast direction. From synopsis, high pressure building in the Gulf will promote gentle to moderate north to northeast breezes slackening throughout the afternoon.
621 AM EST Wed Feb 26 2025 Weak high pressure will continue to foster a warmup over the next few days.
333 AM CST Wed Feb 26 2025 - A cold front will bring an area of rain to the Quad State this afternoon into tonight.
1259 PM EST Wed Feb 26 2025 A weak cold front moves across our region on Thursday with a bit of rain, mainly over the mountains.
350 PM EST Wed Feb 26 2025 Rain chances increase late this evening into early tomorrow with a passing warm front. KEY MESSAGES: -Rain chances will continue this evening and into early Thursday morning with a passing low pressure system -River ice within the Allegheny River will need to be monitored ------------------------------------------------------------------- A warm front is currently advancing across the Ohio River Valley this afternoon. Precipitation chances will remain elevated (above 75%) late this evening and into early Thursday morning as the center of the low, which is currently situated in the vicinity of Chicago, slowly advances east. This is likely due to training convection associated with the passing warm front.
1028 AM MST Wed Feb 26 2025 - High temperatures will be considerably cooler today than those seen recently while gusty winds of 20 to 30 mph are possible for the southern half of the forecast area.
High pressure off the Carolina coastline ridges southwest across Florida and into the eastern gulf through Thursday afternoon.
221 PM CST Wed Feb 26 2025 - Warmer than normal conditions stick around through the end of the week.
216 PM CST Wed Feb 26 2025 - A cold front will traverse the Quad State this afternoon into this evening, bringing up to a quarter inch of rain to mainly easter portions of the area.
A dry cold front will be approaching Thursday evening, tightening the pressure gradient.
High temperatures are forecast to reach the low to mid 70s through the area, with a low chance (10% or less) of reaching the high 70s. If the higher 70s are reached, there is a potential for record-setting values. Cloud cover and cold air advection associated with the weak front moving through the area on Thursday will keep highs in the low 60s.
238 PM EST Wed Feb 26 2025 High pressure will prevail through early Thursday. A cold front will push offshore Thursday evening.
1115 AM CST Wed Feb 26 2025 -Breezy today with clouds clearing behind a cold front.
A cold front will bring light rain to the area Thursday morning but much of the mid-afternoon looks to be dry. Dry much of the period, but a weak cold front will bring mainly light rain to the area especially north on Thursday evening.
- Cold this weekend with highs near freezing. Nonetheless spread of remnant EML atop return H85 theta-e ridge does suggest low chc of elevated thunder potential far south for a time this aftn, similar to whats observed currently upstream on nose of LLJ in srn IA and perhaps with better low level moisture in time, will elicit a more robust response far southeast late aftn before sys exists east. Thereafter a general springtime roller coaster as a more potent clipper sys wraps up through the nrn lakes Fri bringing a windy but mild day followed by a sharp cold frontal passage Fri evening. Low pressure over northwest IL this afternoon will track east during the TAF period brining rain, reduced ceilings and a wind shift. A warm front is seen just south of KSBN and just southwest of KFWA.
- Warm temperatures will melt snowpack along the low/mid elevations of the Bighorn Basin possibly leading to ice jamming and flood concerns by the weekend.
* A cooler and more unsettled weather pattern returns this weekend through the first week of March.
Thursday night the front will continue to move east away from our area with high pressure rebuilding in from the west. On Thursday high temperatures are expected to be in the will be in the lower 70s across the entire region. Thursday night lows cool slightly in the wake of the frontal passage, ranging from the low to mid 40s across most of the area, but upper 40s to near 50 along the immediate coast.
1228 PM EST Wed Feb 26 2025 Rain chances increase this afternoon/evening with a passing warm front. Rain shower activity is enhanced to our west with the passage of warm front. Based on surface observations, the center of a low pressure system is currently situated just west of the Chicago region. With zonal flow (westerly flow) aloft, rain showers will likely train throughout late afternoon and into the overnight time period in the vicinity of the warm front.
Temperatures will rise a few degrees above normal as ridging begins to impact our weather.
Heading into the afternoon, the cold front will approach our western counties. Highs today will reach into the 50s north through 60s south in the warm sector ahead of the cold front.
1232 PM EST Wed Feb 26 2025 Morning fog developments are dispersing which will lead to clear skies and warmer temperatures for today. Leaned toward warmer end of NBM guidance given dry airmass and full sun today. Increasing high clouds tonight as temperatures fall into the mid 40s across SE GA to the lower 50s toward the coast and NE FL toward the St.
219 PM EST Wed Feb 26 2025 A weak cold front moves across our region on Thursday with a bit of rain, mainly over the mountains.
301 PM EST Wed Feb 26 2025 A warm front will lift north of the area tonight followed by a cold front Thursday afternoon.
1035 AM EST Wed Feb 26 2025 Rain chances increase this afternoon/evening with a passing warm front. Rain shower activity is enhanced to our west with the passage of warm front. Based on surface observations, the center of a low pressure system is currently situated just west of the Chicago region. With zonal flow (westerly flow) aloft, rain showers will likely train throughout late afternoon and into the overnight time period in the vicinity of the warm front.
(Rest of today through Thursday) A weak southern stream mid level trough will remain over the region through tonight and into the first part of Thursday before shifting into the western Atlantic. Farther to the northwest, a deeper and stronger mid level trough will dive down from the Great Lakes region and amplify as it pushes across the Midwest and portions of the Southeast tonight and Thursday. This will cause high pressure currently centered over the region this afternoon to push into the western Atlantic during this time frame. At the lower levels, east northeasterly wind flow this afternoon will gradually veer and become south to southwesterly on Thursday out ahead of the approaching frontal boundary. High temperatures on Thursday will generally rise into the lower 80s across most areas.
pdf High pressure conditions will continue to dominate the weather pattern throughout the day with dry weather, clear skies, and mild winds continuing through the afternoon and into tonight.
- Noticeably cooler with breezy north winds Wednesday.
1158 AM CST Wed Feb 26 2025 - Above normal temperatures today, then cooler on Thursday.
Early afternoon water vapor imagery shows a departing mid/upper-level trough continuing to dive southeast through the Eastern Great Basin, with a ridge of high pressure building in from the west in its wake. Seeing a few mid and high clouds spilling southeast over the ridge axis, but most areas seeing plenty of sunshine this afternoon. Model ensembles are in strong agreement showing this mid/upper-level ridge continuing to build into the Great Basin/Northern Rockies and amplify tonight and Thursday, dominating the local weather picture for the next few days. We'll see good radiational cooling at night however, allowing lows to drop below freezing areawide the next two nights.
1116 AM CST Wed Feb 26 2025 Updated at 236 AM CST Wed Feb 26 2025 - Weak cold front moves through today with slightly cooler temperatures.
1136 AM MST Wed Feb 26 2025 - Cooler today with near normals temperatures and scattered mountain snow showers.
225 PM EST Wed Feb 26 2025 Weak high pressure over the region will push offshore late today. A cold front will cross the region Thursday and Thursday night. For the rest of today, expect varying amounts of high clouds, little in the way of breeziness, and temps rising into the low to mid 70s. Turning much cooler and clearing Thursday night. The mid/upper level trough and associated cold front will approach the region Thursday, then shift through during the late day into the evening hours. In addition, a narrow band of showers/possible isolated thunderstorms is expected with the cold front between 500 PM and 10 PM.
This has resulted in most land- based surface observations reporting temperatures only in the lower to mid 70s on this late February afternoon. This will set the stage for a weak cold front to limp through the Florida Keys Thursday night.
(Tonight through Thursday night) - A cold front will move through the area tonight, with cooler temperatures expected Thursday. A cold front is moving through central TX this afternoon and should reach our northern border by the start of this period. Cooler, drier air will move in behind the front Thursday. High temperatures will be around ten degrees cooler than today.
(This afternoon through Thursday) High pressure, centered over the northern Gulf, is beginning to shift to the east of the area. While sunny and warm conditions are expected today, cloud cover will begin to increase tonight as a cold front moves into the area.
(Tonight through Thursday night) Key Messages: - Weakening Cold Front Thursday Morning - Possible Dense Fog over the coastal waters Thursday Laguna Madre/Near shore waters). A cold front noted over north- central Texas is expected to weaken as it moves across Deep South Texas late and early Thursday. One upper level trough moves east of the Great Lakes with a second weaker trough retrograding westward leaving a weak zonal flow over Texas allowing for the front to slow down its forward progress and losing its strength as it approaches the lower Texas coast. Probability of Marine dense fog is slighlty higher with medium confidence as higher dew point air in the 60s crosses over cooler waters across the Laguna Madre and near shore waters.
1038 AM MST Wed Feb 26 2025 - Cooler today with near normals temperatures and scattered mountain snow showers.
329 PM EST Wed Feb 26 2025 Low pressure will provide periods of showers across the middle Ohio Valley through Thursday.
Updated at 224 PM CST Wed Feb 26 2025 - Weak cold front has pushed through today with slightly cooler temperatures behind boundary.
High temperatures are forecast to reach the low to mid 70s through the area, with a low chance (10% or less) of reaching the high 70s. If the higher 70s are reached, there is a potential for record-setting values. Increasing clouds are expected tonight, as near zonal flow gives way to an upper trough axis diving southward into the Midwest/OH Valley states. Skies will then begin to clear from west to east Thu afternoon, as the upper trough axis dives further into the southern/mid Atlantic states. Slightly cooler air will also spread into the area in the wake of the frontal passage, as highs Thu trend more in the lower 60s. Mostly clear and near seasonal conditions will then prevail Thu night, as high pressure out of the Plains states begins to build into much of the region.
1110 AM CST Wed Feb 26 2025 - A cold front will bring an area of rain to the Quad State this afternoon into tonight.
Thursday night the front will continue to move east away from our area with high pressure rebuilding in from the west. Low temperatures tonight should mainly be in the lower 50s across most of the interior, but mid to upper 50s closer to and along the coast. On Thursday high temperatures are expected to be in the lower 70s across the entire region. Thursday night lows cool slightly in the wake of the frontal passage, ranging from the low to mid 40s across most of the area, but upper 40s to around 50 along the immediate coast.
The highest probabilities will be across SW portions and along the Nature Coast where more sea fog influencing the area. The highest chances will be near FMY/RSW, and there is a non-zero chance for PGD and LAL.
Drier and warmer conditions today as ridging remains over the area.
- There is a low chance for rain showers later tonight along and behind a cold front.
- Light, to occasionally moderate, snow showers this evening mainly across the higher terrain.
514 PM CST Wed Feb 26 2025 - Noticeably cooler with breezy north winds Wednesday.
151 PM PST Wed Feb 26 2025 * Upper level ridge will be over northern and central Nevada through Thursday.
The highest chances will be near FMY/RSW, and there is a non-zero chance for PGD and LAL. High pressure off the Carolina coastline ridges southwest across Florida and into the eastern gulf through Thursday afternoon.
618 PM EST Wed Feb 26 2025 (Rest of today through Thursday) A weak southern stream mid level trough will remain over the region through tonight and into the first part of Thursday before shifting into the western Atlantic. Farther to the northwest, a deeper and stronger mid level trough will dive down from the Great Lakes region and amplify as it pushes across the Midwest and portions of the Southeast tonight and Thursday. This will cause high pressure currently centered over the region this afternoon to push into the western Atlantic during this time frame. At the lower levels, east northeasterly wind flow this afternoon will gradually veer and become south to southwesterly on Thursday out ahead of the approaching frontal boundary. High temperatures on Thursday will generally rise into the lower 80s across most areas.