Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
The arctic cold air mass is finally being pushed away from northeast Montana by ever increasing areas of warmer air from the south and southwest.
Temperatures remain fairly mild through the start of the day but will start to cool as the trough moves in.
pdf Arctic airmass still on track to plunge into the region tonight in the wake of cold frontal passage this afternoon.
523 PM CST Fri Jan 19 2024 - Dangerous wind chills of -15 to -35 are expected again tonight, mainly form the Highway 83 corridor eastward.
521 PM CST Fri Jan 19 2024 (Tonight through Saturday night) Key Messages: - Freezing temperatures expected tonight. High pressure over the region should keep us high, dry and cold tonight. Freezing temperatures are expected across much of the region after midnight tonight. Areas north of a Port Aransas to Freer line can expect several hours below freezing, while south of this line only a few hours are anticipated. Models are not handling it well, but it looks like it may be associated with some week isentropic flow with a kink in the isotherms in the lower to mid levels. Expect this to kick out to the east later today, so will not be making any related changes to the temperature forecast, but should this cloud deck persist and continue northward, it could certainly cause temperatures to remain warmer.
Overnight lows are expected to dip into the low 50s for interior locations and lower 60s for coastal areas. (Rest of today through Saturday) A cold front will continue to gradually push across South Florida through this evening, resulting in overcast skies, scattered rain showers, and potentially a few thunderstorms. Due to a generally zonal flow pattern aloft, minimized instability, and the only true forcing component being the cold front, any impacts from showers or storms are expected to be minimal. Northerly winds behind the front will bring a drier and cooler airmass over South Florida for Friday night and Saturday. High temperatures will be in the low to mid 60s near the lake and in the upper 60s for most other locations.
1043 PM CST Fri Jan 19 2024 (The rest of tonight) As of 9 PM, temperatures across the region range from the low-mid teens north of I-40 to upper teens/lower 20s south of I-40. Winds are expected to hover between 5 and 10 mph through the remainder of the night (slightly stronger in the higher terrain areas).
The presence of the cloud deck could significantly impact the low temperature forecast tonight. That being said, the Arctic air is just off to our west with several locations in NW TN reporting temperatures in the lower teens and dew points in the single digits.
354 AM EST Sat Jan 20 2024 Arctic high pressure will build over our region through the weekend.
159 AM EST Sat Jan 20 2024 Arctic high pressure will build over our region through the weekend.
This high was not only providing cold dry air but also occasional gusty winds that will help temperatures plummet through morning and result in very cold wind chill values.
High temperatures will rise to the low to mid 20s, except low 30s in far southeast OK.
200 AM MST Sat Jan 20 2024 Warmer than normal temperatures and dry weather continue today.
1056 PM CST Fri Jan 19 2024 (Tonight through Saturday night) Northerly winds continue to bring cooler, drier air to South Central Texas behind a cold that is now south of Texas. Temperatures this afternoon are 15 to 30 degrees cooler than 24 hours ago and dewpoints are 15 to 25 degrees lower. With the high moving toward the east, the winds across the region will become easterly and this will begin a warming trend for Saturday night.
949 PM CST Fri Jan 19 2024 (This evening through Saturday) Cold temperatures will persist across the area into Saturday, in the wake of the cold front that moved through last night.
Thanks to the high pressure over us, we should see plenty of sun today and warm up about 15 to 20 degrees from our lows this morning.
(The rest of tonight) As of 9 PM, temperatures across the region range from the low-mid teens north of I-40 to upper teens/lower 20s south of I-40. Winds are expected to hover between 5 and 10 mph through the remainder of the night (slightly stronger in the higher terrain areas).
Numerous cloud layers were observed, and indicating the temporary removal of the lowest stratus with a small dry portion above the surface. While measurable rain chances are being reduced to slight chance for the overnight period, higher rain changes were left over the outer Straits where lingering surface-based instability will remain, with the highest resurgence of shower coverage expected there. A strong cold front will drive through the area overnight from northwest to southeast. As strong high pressure builds over the Tennessee Valley behind the front and slowly slides eastward to the Mid-Atlantic, strong northerly breezes will veer to the northeast to east over the weekend.
Highs in the 30s are therefore expected area-wide today, with portions of the Rolling Plains and the SE TX Panhandle struggling to warm above freezing with the surface upslope component remaining most robust off the Caprock. One change from yesterday will be an increase in mid/high level cloud cover as flow aloft backs to a more southwesterly direction ahead of broad troughing over the Pacific coast, but dry conditions will continue through tonight. This increased cloud cover will keep overnight temps a bit warmer than past nights, with lows generally in the upper teens to low 20s.
1053 PM CST Fri Jan 19 2024 (Tonight through Saturday night) Key Messages: - Freezing temperatures expected tonight. High pressure over the region should keep us high, dry and cold tonight. Freezing temperatures are expected across much of the region after midnight tonight. Areas north of a Port Aransas to Freer line can expect several hours below freezing, while south of this line only a few hours are anticipated. Models are not handling it well, but it looks like it may be associated with some week isentropic flow with a kink in the isotherms in the lower to mid levels. Expect this to kick out to the east later today, so will not be making any related changes to the temperature forecast, but should this cloud deck persist and continue northward, it could certainly cause temperatures to remain warmer.
1106 PM CST Fri Jan 19 2024 (This afternoon through Saturday night) WV imagery shows dry, northwest flow aloft continues over West Texas and Southeast New Mexico this afternoon, as an upper ridge approaches the Four Corners. At the surface, a cold front has made it to the Rio Grande, with CAA in full force behind it. As a result, much of the CWA is still below freezing at 19Z. Unfortunately, persistent CAA through Saturday morning, as well as the aforementioned cloud cover increasing from the west, will keep highs Saturday similar to today's, if not a degree colder, despite the ridge moving through the region. Saturday night, flow aloft transitions to southwest on the backside of the ridge as the next broad trough approaches.
Main upper low off the coast will send smaller-scale embedded troughs inland and over our CWA the next several days. These troughs will each bring light pcpn, generally rain below 5000 feet MSL and snow above. A few low-elevation valleys near the OR/ID border will have light freezing rain at night but amounts will be minimal. Showers will increase Saturday morning across SE Oregon and far SW Idaho with pockets of light freezing rain in the Treasure Valley, most likely near KEUL and KONO.
1118 PM CST Fri Jan 19 2024 - Dangerous wind chills of -15 to -35 are expected again tonight, mainly form the Highway 83 corridor eastward.
1042 PM CST Fri Jan 19 2024 (This evening through Saturday) Surface ridging will dominate this evening through the overnight hours and will help keep overnight temps cool.
THis is due to a strong cold front that pushed through and an arctic airmass now sitting over us.
1016 PM MST Fri Jan 19 2024 111 PM MST Fri Jan 19 2024 - Arctic high brings very cold wind chills tonight and then robust return flow Saturday - Mean upper ridge dominates the weather for rest of the forecast 19z surface analysis had sprawling 1040mb arctic high across the entire plains states. Water vapour loop showed upper ridge over the Rockies and upper low over the Great Lakes. Effects of retreating Arctic high and upper ridge main forecast concern. Temperatures Saturday will be near guidance with 80%+ chances for 32F+ MaxT over the higher Black Hills/northeast WY.
While QPF is only going to be a couple hundreths of an inch, an additional 2 to 4 inches is possible in the Finger Lakes into the higher elevations of CNY south of the Thruway. Lake effect ends late tonight into tomorrow morning as upper level ridging builds in and warmer temperatures begin to return aloft. Southwesterly flow returns Sunday night as an upper level ridge slides into our region. High pressure is expected to build in at the surface bringing overnight clear skies across the region.
- Areas of freezing fog possible this morning, and this would lead to slick surfaces and roadways if this develops.
A low pressure system is expected to skim the coast of Oregon and Washington over the weekend. There was some potential for freezing drizzle across portions of the Snake Plain, but precipitation appears to be way too scattered and light for anything appreciable. 25 inches possible in the high country. Temperatures are expected to remain relatively mild with valley locations seeing highs in the 30s to near 40 while overnight lows dip to around freezing.
The next 4/5 days will feature a significant trough setting up over a good portion of the United States, as the West Coast opens up to what resembles an El Nino climatological pattern.
The clouds will keep temperatures from rising much, but with a warmer start and a little warm advection we should still get about 5 degrees warmer than yesterday. Still mainly in the 30s on the plains, but some warmer air south of Denver and in the mountains where there will be 40s. We'll carry a chance of snow after midnight, mainly over the ridges, with light amounts if anything. Enough moisture will impinge on the high country to sustain light snow showers, with minimal accumulations primarily confined to the higher elevations.
504 AM CST Sat Jan 20 2024 (Today through Sunday night) A progressive ridge is passing over the panhandles today and Sunday which will continue the stretch of fair and dry weather. Highs today are expected to be in the 30s with the western panhandles warmer than the eastern panhandles. The winds will serve to move the colder air out of the area and push in warmer air across the panhandles. The warmer air will bring the temperatures closer to normal for Sunday with highs in the 40s and 50s. The progressive and generally weak nature of the ridge will allow mid to high clouds to stream across the panhandles for the weekend so expect partially sunny to mostly cloudy skies.
439 AM EST Sat Jan 20 2024 (Today through Sunday) High pressure and dry conditions will continue across the CWA for the remainder of the short term period.
Latest surface analysis depicts high pressure dominating the central to eastern CONUS, with the frontal boundary that pushed through our region just a few days prior stalled out across Intermountain West as a stacked low pressure cell slowly digs it way to the southeast from the Pacific Northwest. Warming those temperatures down to the surface, should see the daytime highs roughly a good 20 degrees fahrenheit warmer than yesterday. All in all, snow is expected to remain light with QPF struggling as PWATs remain on the lower end. Regardless, could see locally higher amounts further up in elevation for the higher peak. Due to the lower snow amounts expected, especially compared to the previous days snowfall, will hold off on issuing any winter headlines with precipitation amounts remaining under criteria.
Thanks to the high pressure over us, we should see plenty of sun today and warm up about 15 to 20 degrees from our lows this morning. This WAA will help some clouds form eventually to make it warmer than the previous night. It will still cool down enough though, that with the higher winds we could still see wind chills as cold as this morning. The highest winds will be in southern Minnesota, especially along the Buffalo Ridge.
(Today through Sunday) High pressure and dry conditions will continue across the CWA for the remainder of the short term period.
949 AM EST Sat Jan 20 2024 A weak upper trough will pass over the region today then slide to the southeast tonight.
This is due to a robust 1040+mb ridge transiting the Great Plains into the Midwest which, in the process, will maintain northerly winds and enough cold air advection for temperature minimums in the 20s (Hard Freeze Warning for overnight tonight) and maximums in the 30s/lower 40s. This is due to the aforementioned main synoptic influence being the ridge moving towards the Eastern Seaboard.
505 AM EST Sat Jan 20 2024 Arctic high pressure will build over our region through the weekend.
(Today through Sunday) High pressure will continue to settle over the forecast area as a coastal trough simultaneously develops over the Lower Texas Coast. A weak warm front will start to move north over the CWA tonight, while aloft the mid-level pattern will transition from ridging to an upstream trough, shifting mid-level winds to southwest and a more unstable pattern.
Therefore undercut guidance with lows dropping into the low single digits to around zero. After tonight however, the below zero temps will be in the rearview mirror as a significant warmup begins on Sunday thanks to an upper ridge building northward from the Gulf Coast. Highs should rise above freezing for much of the area south of I-40 on Sunday afternoon, although they may stay just below freezing across our north.
517 AM CST Sat Jan 20 2024 (Today and tonight) Weak upper-level ridging will set up across West Central Texas this morning, with some upper to mid-level moisture beginning to filter into the area and increasing cloud cover throughout the day today. Winds begin to shift to the southeast tonight, ushering in some slightly warmer temperatures and some Gulf moisture.
THis is due to a strong cold front that pushed through and an arctic airmass now sitting over us. Pasco county and north will see freezing temperatures with interior Levy county potentially seeing hard freeze. However, thanks to the winds in the morning feel like temperatures will make it feel like the teens and twenties for everyone expect Charlotte and Lee counties where feels like temperatures will still be in the low to mid 30's.
- An early week system brings an increased precip potential (>60%) across southern WI, but there continues to be uncertainty on precip type and impacts given the near freezing temps. Issued 423 AM CST Sat Jan 20 2024 Today through Sunday: Strong arctic high pressure will scoot southeast over the region through today. While the high will promote mostly clear skies and dry conditions, we'll continue to contend with bitter wind chills this morning as winds remain elevated owing to a tighter pressure gradient over the Upper Great Lakes region. Air temperatures will rise to the low teens this afternoon and winds should gradually ease but remain elevated as the high pressure center moves south of the state. These lower temperatures will offset the lower winds leading to more Wind Chill Advisory criteria conditions tonight into Sunday Morning.
522 AM CST Sat Jan 20 2024 (Today through Sunday) High pressure will continue to settle over the forecast area as a coastal trough simultaneously develops over the Lower Texas Coast. A weak warm front will start to move north over the CWA tonight, while aloft the mid-level pattern will transition from ridging to an upstream trough, shifting mid-level winds to southwest and a more unstable pattern.
Cold arctic high pressure will bring dry weather with temperatures well below normal through the weekend.
High pressure builds into the region from the SW beginning late Sunday morning, stopping the lake effect process. During the day Saturday, temps will struggle to climb into the lower teens. Portions of the higher terrain of the Catskills and Tug Hill could see brief periods of wind chills reaching -15F. Southwesterly flow returns Sunday night as an upper level ridge slides into our region. High pressure is expected to build in at the surface bringing overnight clear skies across the region.
(Today and tonight) Weak upper-level ridging will set up across West Central Texas this morning, with some upper to mid-level moisture beginning to filter into the area and increasing cloud cover throughout the day today. Winds begin to shift to the southeast tonight, ushering in some slightly warmer temperatures and some Gulf moisture.
638 AM EST Sat Jan 20 2024 (Today through Sunday) Drier and cooler air arrives for early Saturday morning and will hang around through Sunday with partly sunny skies. This high pressure stretches south over the Florida peninsula. High temperatures this afternoon will be in the low to mid 60s near the lake and in the upper 60s for most other locations Saturday night into Sunday morning will see the coldest temperatures for the weekend. Low temperatures near the lake region are expected to see overnight lows in the low 40s, while the west coast sees mid 40s and the east coast metro sees low 50s.
523 AM CST Sat Jan 20 2024 Cold arctic high pressure will bring dry weather with temperatures well below normal through the weekend.
(Today through Sunday night) A progressive ridge is passing over the panhandles today and Sunday which will continue the stretch of fair and dry weather. Highs today are expected to be in the 30s with the western panhandles warmer than the eastern panhandles. The winds will serve to move the colder air out of the area and push in warmer air across the panhandles. The warmer air will bring the temperatures closer to normal for Sunday with highs in the 40s and 50s. The progressive and generally weak nature of the ridge will allow mid to high clouds to stream across the panhandles for the weekend so expect partially sunny to mostly cloudy skies.
733 AM EST Sat Jan 20 2024 A weak upper trough will pass over the region today then slide to the southeast tonight.
These clouds will of course limit insolation today and so despite weak warm air advection developing, daytime highs today will only be a few degrees warmer than yesterday. The reason for the increasing upper clouds is a broad trough moving into the western United States. The trough reaches New Mexico Sunday morning bringing increasing instability and a slight chance for showers on Sunday mainly from the Big Bend to the lower Trans Pecos where low level moisture is best. Higher elevations south of I-10 could be below freezing Sunday morning and so there will also be a threat for freezing rain as well as rain showers but again, with little accumulations slick roads are not expected to be a major threat.
Showers cover the region early this morning as the upper trough off the northwest coast lifts toward the PacNW.
605 AM EST Sat Jan 20 2024 A weak upper trough will pass over the region today then slide to the southeast tonight.
517 AM EST Sat Jan 20 2024 A weak upper trough will pass over the region today then slide to the southeast tonight.
Early afternoon temperatures are still near freezing across the Permian Basin and not much warmer to the south. Southeasterly surface winds will return tonight as an upper level trough begins to approach from the west. There could be a couple hours where temperatures are below freezing, allowing light ice to form on elevated surfaces. Better chances for light rain arrive Sunday night with the passage of the upper trough. All locations look to remain above freezing so no major impacts are expected.
Widespread cloud cover and cooler temperatures can also be expected.
Issued by National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 158 PM EST Sat Jan 20 2024 Snow showers will end tonight as high pressure builds across the region.
1058 AM CST Sat Jan 20 2024 Surface analysis late this morning places a 1043 mb ridge of high pressure over northwest Missouri. This is bringing sunny skies and precipitation free weather to the Lower Mississippi Valley. CJC Cold arctic high pressure will bring dry weather with temperatures well below normal through the weekend.
Expect low temperatures in the low to mid 20s. An upper level trough across the Western CONUS will place West Central Texas in southwest flow aloft. Temperatures will be below freezing at daybreak, with temperatures slowly warming through the day. Since temperatures in the morning will start off below freezing, some patchy light freezing rain is possible, initially just across Crockett County, then across portions of the northern Edwards Plateau and southern Concho Valley by mid to late morning, and possibly across portions of the Big Country in the afternoon. Temperatures by mid to late morning should be in the low to mid 30s, so little to no accumulation of ice is expected. Elevated surface could see some minor accumulations, but with temperatures hovering near freezing, impacts look minimal.
1123 AM CST Sat Jan 20 2024 (Today and tonight) Weak upper-level ridging will set up across West Central Texas this morning, with some upper to mid-level moisture beginning to filter into the area and increasing cloud cover throughout the day today. Winds begin to shift to the southeast tonight, ushering in some slightly warmer temperatures and some Gulf moisture.
BB/03 (Now through Sunday) Cold and dry conditions prevail as zonal flow aloft persists and upper ridging begins to build into the forecast area. Afternoon temperatures today will be very cold, only topping out in the upper 30's over interior portions of southeastern MS into southwestern and south-central AL while areas nearer the coast see temperatures in the lower to middle 40's. Sunday should be a bit warmer as this airmass moderates with most areas in the middle to upper 40's for highs.
A large high pressure ridge will be building over the area Sunday, helping temperatures warm into the 30s.
High pressure ridge axis is just east of our area over Wyoming with moist southwest flow over our area with moisture coming from an upper level low just off the Oregon coast. Look for a couple of waves of moisture off this low through the period. There is a slight chance of freezing rain late tonight into early tomorrow morning. The Upper Snake plain is the best area for freezing rain to occur but, again, not that likely.
- An early week system brings an increased precip potential (>75%) across southern WI, but there continues to be uncertainty on precip type and impacts given the near freezing temps.
Observations in this area are just below freezing - generally in the upper 20s - which will support areas of light freezing rain through the late morning in places like Nampa, Caldwell and Ontario. Some evidence of these warmer temperatures aloft has been seen at the surface near Twin Falls, where readings above 50 have occasionally been observed this morning. Snow levels range from 5000-6000 ft MSL, except in the lower Treasure Valley where it is currently below freezing. Therefore, areas at/near KEUL and KONO are susceptible to freezing rain through morning.
155 PM EST Sat Jan 20 2024 Drier and cooler air continues to filter across the region this afternoon as high pressure builds over the central U. Temperatures tonight will be even colder, with at or below freezing conditions expected from Pasco county northward. Mid-level ridging will also build over the Bahamas and Florida and this overall pattern shift will lead to increasing moisture and temperatures very quickly warming back up each day.
All this along with the remaining snow cover will send overnight temperatures in the low single digits with some locations even getting to near zero. While it will still be cold, highs on Sunday will at least reach close to the freezing mark.
159 PM EST Sat Jan 20 2024 Arctic high pressure will build over our region through the weekend.