Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Will issue a Rangeland Fire Danger Statement from Bexar to Karnes counties west to the Rio Grande for this afternoon since those areas will not have much wetting rains and will see the lowest minimum humidities at below 25 percent.
409 AM CST Mon Nov 18 2024 - Wet, warmer and breezy today with widespread (90-100%) rain persisting into this evening.
The high will begin to be nudged into the western Atlantic through the day on Tuesday although moisture profiles will still remain dismal leading to another dry day.
Temperatures trend warmer with highs a few degrees above average late in the week.
425 AM EST Mon Nov 18 2024 (Today through Tuesday night) Scattered to broken cirrus continues to filter over the area as upper level moisture spills over a ridge of high pressure over the SE US. In its wake, a broad upper trough will cover the W 2/3 of the country. A cold front will approach the area from the NW tonight, with widespread showers spreading into the area from the W late tonight and early Tuesday morning. Low temperatures Tuesday night will range from the mid 50s to the lower 60s across the area.
- Turning cooler for the latter half of the week. As the storms move farther east, it is uncertain what the instability will be like with warmer temperatures aloft but higher low-level moisture content. After near record warm low temperatures to start to Monday, the clear skies and light wind will allow for a much cooler daybreak Tuesday, but still a few degrees above average for the middle of November.
454 AM CST Mon Nov 18 2024 (Today through Tuesday Night) As expected, it's much warmer this morning versus yesterday at this time thanks to increasing WAA and cloud cover. This warmth is occurring ahead of a strong storm system taking shape in the Plains, with an associated cold front on track to approach the area tonight and move across on Tuesday.
Otherwise, quiet conditions across the area this morning as a weak ridge has developed overhead. Conditions will start to deteriorate this afternoon as a strong low pressure system currently centered over West Texas lifts northeast toward the Western Great Lakes. Rain showers associated with this low will arrive into central WI late this afternoon and continue to spread northeast across the region through the evening. Slightly warmer temperatures are forecast for Tuesday with highs in the low 50s to low 60s (15-20 degrees warmer than normal).
Chances for snow showers on the lower elevations remains low, but still some threat along/south of I-70 Tuesday morning.
- A cold front moves through the area Tuesday morning bringing much colder air for the middle of the week. Drier and cooler air, along with lighter winds, bring lows into the 40s for most. A cold front moves through Tuesday morning and will limit highs for many to the 60s with upper 50s for parts of southeast New Mexico and the higher elevations.
This ridge will hold before beginning to break down late on Tuesday.
Cooler temperatures to start the week then warming up to above normal late in the work week as high pressure aloft builds over the area.
As a broad trough deepens over the Great Basin today, pressure gradients will tighten up again and result in breezy daytime winds.
133 PM MST Mon Nov 18 2024 - A cold front dropping through tonight will bring a general 2-4 inches of snow to the higher elevations of the Colorado mountains, favoring the northern and central mountians.
The cold front has moved east of the area, but breezy conditions will develop in its wake this afternoon.
- Cooler temperatures for the middle to latter part of the upcoming week. Temperatures Tuesday range from lows mainly in the mid 40s to highs in the lower 70s.
139 PM EST Mon Nov 18 2024 High pressure tonight. A cold front Tuesday.
A decently stacked high pressure extends from the surface up through about 200 mb, generally centered near the Florida Peninsula. Clouds will also keep temperatures in the lower to maybe reaching the mid 80s, mostly in the Lower Keys.
A cold front will move east across move through the ArkLaTex region early this afternoon and through Arkansas overnight.
The shower and storm activity will continue to spread to the east through the day across the area as the associated upper level low lifts out of the Texas/Oklahoma area to the northeast.
Portions of the Lower Keys managed to break out in some sun. The weather will remain quiet over the next 24 to 36 hours thanks to a deep mean layered ridge sitting in the vicinity of the Florida Peninsula.
(This evening through Tuesday Night) Showers and thunderstorms are continuing to push across the region with the cold front, where they look to continue strengthening into the afternoon hours. The overall thinking from this morning still stands regarding evolution and timing for the severe weather, as thunderstorms will develop ahead of the cold front over the next few hours. However, the severe potential looks to dramatically decrease once the sun goes down, with the severe threat completely exiting the region once the cold front moves through. Lows tonight will range in the mid-40s to low-60s, before falling tomorrow into the low 40s and 50s.
344 PM EST Mon Nov 18 2024 Dry conditions are expected through Tuesday with high pressure in control. 340 PM Update: High pressure will be in control for most of the near term period, which will bring continued dry weather. High pressure will remain in control for one more day on Tuesday, which will result in partly to mostly sunny skies and highs in the upper 40s to mid 50s.
1153 AM CST Mon Nov 18 2024 (Today through Tuesday Night) An upper low is located in southwest Texas this morning with an upper high over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. The upper low will move into Kansas this afternoon with strong southwest flow ahead of it. The upper low moves into Minnesota by Tuesday morning with southwest flow continuing over Arkansas which continues through Tuesday. High pressure moves into the state for Tuesday with drier and cooler air.
Tuesday will be much quieter than today although we'll still see some lingering snow, namely in the east/southeast highlands with a few tenths of additional accumulation possible in the lowest elevations with maybe an additional 1-2 inches in the Big Holes. Temperatures will remain well below normal tomorrow with many areas seeing daytime highs remaining below freezing. The lower Snake and eastern Magic Valley may be lucky enough to see highs in the mid to upper 30s but it will certainly be cold with highs running 10-15 degrees below normal.
- Dry with cooler temperatures Tuesday through the end of the week. The closed low across western Kansas is becoming negatively tilted and will continue to lift north- northeast across the area through the remainder of the day. Forecast hodographs show some weakness in the low-level wind field (veer-back-veer profiles) which could limit the strength of updrafts. Precipitation comes to an end late tonight with west-northwesterly winds ushering in cooler and drier air.
This pattern keeps a southeast low-level flow across the local area through tomorrow, with rain-free conditions and highs topping out in the lower to mid 80s tomorrow afternoon.
- Turning cooler for the latter half of the week. (Rest of today and tonight) Closed upper low will continue to lift north and northeast into the central Plains this evening and tonight. As this occurs, skies will clear, winds will decreases and with drier air moving into the area, overnight low temperatures will be some 15 to 20 degrees cooler than what was seen last night.
The low will continue to lift northeast into Iowa tonight. Gusty southerly winds will occurring across the region east and southeast of the low into this evening as gusts of 35 to 45 mph will continue to occur at times. A cold front is also moving east across the area this afternoon. Additional storms will develop under the surface and upper lows across Kansas this afternoon and move northeast with the lows into early this evening. This additional activity should remain west and north of the area closer to the lows. The air mass behind the front will not be all that much cooler, as highs will warm into the low to middle 60s across the area on Tuesday behind the system currently moving through the region this afternoon.
258 PM EST Mon Nov 18 2024 Warm and dry high pressure will persist into Tuesday as it moves east.
- Cooler and breezy weather through late week. While tornado potential isn't great given the increasingly unfavorable hodograph shape and marginal instability, buoyancy confined mainly to the lowest 3-4 km amidst decent low-level shear could support a brief tornado or two with any sustained low-topped supercell. Additionally, stout/gusty south to eventually southwest winds will persist well into the evening, mainly along and east of I-135, as powerful low pressure exits to the east-northeast. The main story behind this system will be cooler temperatures, especially by Tuesday night, as cooler high pressure attempts to build in from the northwest.
120 PM CST Mon Nov 18 2024 - The passage of a cold front tonight will be accompanied by scattered to numerous showers and breezy conditions.
The first round of rain from this morning has moved north of the area with an additional batch of rain encroaching into northeast Missouri at the moment ahead of the deep upper low over Kansas. CAMS including the HRRR continue to show that the band of showers and few thunderstorms currently over the Plains ahead of the cold front will move into the CWA late this afternoon and early this evening and move east across the area. The cold front will only have weak cold air advection behind it, so temperatures will still be above normal through Tuesday night.
- Cooler temperatures for the middle to latter part of the upcoming week. A 40-60KT jet in the low to mid levels has the potential to mix down to the surface today, which would result in wind gusts of 40-45 MPH in some locations.
142 PM MST Mon Nov 18 2024 - A cold front dropping through tonight will bring a general 2-4 inches of snow to the higher elevations of the Colorado mountains, favoring the northern and central mountians.
An area of low pressure will pass north of the region this afternoon and evening and will increase westerly winds in the Barstow area along with providing cooler than normal temperatures areawide.
A weak ridge of high pressure moved over the area this morning, but is quickly moving east as a deepening trough and cold front move through the Great Basin. The cold front will sweep through far northern Arizona tonight with little impact other than a few clouds, and contnued cool weather for Tuesday. Tempeatures Tuesday will be about 5 to 10 degrees cooler than today north of the Mogollon Rim, and very similar to today's highs elsewhere.
137 PM MST Mon Nov 18 2024 - A cold front dropping through tonight will bring a general 2-4 inches of snow to the higher elevations of the Colorado mountains, favoring the northern and central mountians.
- Warmer temperatures for the latter half of the week. A trough moves through the area today, resulting in wind and snow. Gusty winds become more widespread for the lower elevations starting late morning. Snowfall totals for the Tetons into the plateaus of southwest Yellowstone are still on track for 10 to 15 inches, with locally higher amounts at the highest elevations. For the lower elevations, snow showers moving through today may bring some brief snow. Post cold front, temperatures Tuesday are notably cooler, especially since the gusty winds continue.
1128 AM EST Mon Nov 18 2024 - Rain Developing Late Today - Continued Unsettled and Turning Cooler Mid to Late Week We issued a Dense Fog Advisory for the entire cwa until 10 am. A band of rain will develop southeast of the low near the warm front as isentropic lift strengthens and condensation pressure deficits fall to less than 10 mb. Models have been consistent in showing this wave for several days as it moves north and phases with a northern stream upper low. - Continued Unsettled and Turning Cooler Mid to Late Week The same fcst challenges still exist with the mid to late week system.
350 PM EST Mon Nov 18 2024 An upper level low will cross the area tonight.
- Cooler weather is expected during the latter half of the week, but above normal temperatures will prevail during the upcoming weekend. /Issued 1228 PM CST Mon Nov 18 2024/ /Though Tuesday night/ A Pacific cold front continues to move through the eastern portions of the forecast area at midday, taking showers and storms with it. Wind speeds will be much lighter on Tuesday, but a stronger cold front will move through the region Tuesday night, bringing increasing northerly winds and cold air advection.
826 PM CST Mon Nov 18 2024 Temperatures are running a little warmer this evening with the elevated winds. A cold front will move east across move through the ArkLaTex region early this afternoon and through Arkansas overnight.
A weak ridge of high pressure moved over the area this morning, but is quickly moving east as a deepening trough and cold front move through the Great Basin. The cold front will sweep through far northern Arizona tonight with little impact other than a few clouds, and continued cool weather for Tuesday. Temperatures Tuesday will be about 5 to 10 degrees cooler than today north of the Mogollon Rim, and very similar to today's highs elsewhere.
549 PM EST Mon Nov 18 2024 Warm and dry high pressure will persist into Tuesday as it moves east.
647 PM EST Mon Nov 18 2024 Warm and dry high pressure will persist into Tuesday as it moves east.
302 PM MST Mon Nov 18 2024 Cooler temperatures will persist through Tuesday.
Chances for snow showers on the lower elevations remains low, but a few snow showers still possible along/south of I-70 Tuesday morning.
Impressive upper low that brought the region rain and snow yesterday is quickly moving northeast and has left the area with clear skies and breezy winds this afternoon.
- Tomorrow night is forecast to be one of the cooler nights of the season so far with temperatures in the teens and 20's. Parts of Eastern Colorado may see wind chills in the low single digits.
549 PM CST Mon Nov 18 2024 - The passage of a cold front tonight will be accompanied by scattered to numerous showers and breezy conditions.
603 PM CST Mon Nov 18 2024 A fast moving, narrow line of showers associated with a cold front will move across the Midsouth tonight.
939 PM EST Mon Nov 18 2024 An upper level low will cross the area tonight.
CJC A fast moving, narrow line of showers associated with a cold front will move across the Midsouth tonight.
544 PM EST Mon Nov 18 2024 An upper level low will cross the area tonight.
- Temperatures will trend cooler throughout the week.
A fast moving, narrow line of showers associated with a cold front will move across the Midsouth tonight.
514 PM CST Mon Nov 18 2024 (This evening through Tuesday Night) Showers and thunderstorms are continuing to push across the region with the cold front, where they look to continue strengthening into the afternoon hours. The overall thinking from this morning still stands regarding evolution and timing for the severe weather, as thunderstorms will develop ahead of the cold front over the next few hours. However, the severe potential looks to dramatically decrease once the sun goes down, with the severe threat completely exiting the region once the cold front moves through. Lows tonight will range in the mid-40s to low-60s, before falling tomorrow into the low 40s and 50s.
(Tonight through Tuesday) As of 7 pm Monday, squally weather was ongoing from the Upper to Lower Mississippi Valley along and advancing cold front. Showers will become widespread, along with isolated thunderstorms, from early morning to midday Tuesday from a combination of continued isentropic flow and approach of the cold front.
Temperatures trend warmer with highs a few degrees above average late in the week. Upper trough remains over the region today after an embedded short wave tracked to our north last night. A dusting to 1 inch of snow is conceivable to have occurred across the high Sierra Nevada around Yosemite NP. This will allow for ideal radiational cooling with temperatures lowering near freezing across much of the SJ Valley.
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Rain band associated with an upper level Low over Saskatchewan and surface cold front will continue to move east as the afternoon and evening progresses.
1000 PM EST Mon Nov 18 2024 Dry conditions are expected through Tuesday with high pressure in control. 340 PM Update: High pressure will be in control for most of the near term period, which will bring continued dry weather. High pressure will remain in control for one more day on Tuesday, which will result in partly to mostly sunny skies and highs in the upper 40s to mid 50s.
Confidence: Medium to High Large cyclone continues to spin north into Iowa this afternoon. Temperatures will continue to rise into the evening hours, along with dew points, and should increase to the lower 60s by 00z. With some return northwest flow by morning, lows will dip to the lower 40s west to the lower 50s southeast with increasing winds. Tomorrow the main concern will be increasing winds on the backside of the low as it moves away.
Southeast low level flow around the high over the western Atlantic Ocean is continuing to bring moisture into the region under the inversion located around 850 mb leading to abundant stratocumulus. The low level flow will become more southerly Tuesday afternoon as a cold front approaches from the west.
635 PM EST Mon Nov 18 2024 Dry conditions are expected through Tuesday with high pressure in control. 340 PM Update: High pressure will be in control for most of the near term period, which will bring continued dry weather. High pressure will remain in control for one more day on Tuesday, which will result in partly to mostly sunny skies and highs in the upper 40s to mid 50s.
We continue to focus on the potential for an isolated stronger storm or two in the warm sector out ahead of the boundary to the east of the I-45 corridor, given the marginally unstable (SBCAPE ~1500 J/kg) environment with strong (35-40kt in the lowest 3 km) low- level shear. The passage of the boundary, which will move offshore during the evening hours, will allow for drier and cooler air to begin to filter into the area. Highs should mostly remain concentrated in the high 70s to near 80.
220 PM PST Mon Nov 18 2024 * Isolated showers and cooler temperatures are expected through Tuesday.
400 PM MST Mon Nov 18 2024 Updated Aviation Cooler temperatures will persist through Tuesday.
- Large system tracking through tonight/early Tuesday - Rain chances (90 to 100%) through midnight - Conditional severe threat this evening - Possible period of strong winds Tuesday Confidence: Medium to High Large cyclone continues to spin north into Iowa this afternoon. Temperatures will continue to rise into the evening hours, along with dew points, and should increase to the lower 60s by 00z. With some return northwest flow by morning, lows will dip to the lower 40s west to the lower 50s southeast with increasing winds. Tomorrow the main concern will be increasing winds on the backside of the low as it moves away.
419 PM MST Mon Nov 18 2024 - A cold front dropping through tonight will bring a general 2-4 inches of snow to the higher elevations of the Colorado mountains, favoring the northern and central mountians.
- Tuesday night is forecast to be one of the cooler nights of the season so far with temperatures in the teens and 20's. Parts of Eastern Colorado may see wind chills in the low single digits. With this, temperatures should slowly cool into the 20's and 30's with the winds keeping the low levels mixed and little to no cold air advection. Tomorrow, the main trough axis is forecast to swing through the Plains. Otherwise, with higher surface pressure and cooler air over the area, highs will creep up into the 40's with a mix of clouds and clear skies. Tomorrow night, with the upper troughs east of the area, the flow will begin to settle into more of a zonal/ridging flow aloft. The higher surface pressure and cooler air are also forecast to have moved fully into the area.
The cold front responsible for this convection continues to march onward however, now east of SHV, supporting elevated convection across north central Louisiana. Aside from this, the cold front should continue to displace convection east of the SHV CWA border, with clearing skies in the wake of the passing front.
(Today) A cold front continues to approach the Tennessee Valley region from the west early this morning, bringing very high (90-100%) chances for showers and a few elevated thunderstorms through the day. 0645z radar data shows a large cluster of stronger convection along the Gulf Coast of Louisiana and Mississippi -- with a areas of moderate to locally heavy rain (and a few elevated storms) extending northward across the lower Mississippi Valley and Mid South. 0 inch across the area -- with the higher values favoring locations east of I-65 where precipitation may linger a little longer into the afternoon and evening.
- Cooler temperatures for the middle to latter part of the upcoming week.
Other main concern due to the rainfall are the higher flows on rivers across the eastern Texas Panhandle. On Tuesday, an upper level trough will graze the Panhandles. However, a stronger cold front will push through the Panhandles Tuesday afternoon.
- Turning cooler for the latter half of the week. (Rest of today and tonight) Closed upper low will continue to lift north and northeast into the central Plains this evening and tonight. As this occurs, skies will clear, winds will decreases and with drier air moving into the area, overnight low temperatures will be some 15 to 20 degrees cooler than what was seen last night. (Tuesday through Wednesday night) Cooler air will continue to filter south behind a weak frontal boundary Tuesday. As drier air overspreads Oklahoma and north Texas and even with winds not completely dropping off, temperatures will fall to near or below freezing across portions of western and northern Oklahoma by Wednesday morning.
1032 PM CST Mon Nov 18 2024 - Dry with cooler temperatures Tuesday through the end of the week. The closed low across western Kansas is becoming negatively tilted and will continue to lift north- northeast across the area through the remainder of the day. Forecast hodographs show some weakness in the low-level wind field (veer-back-veer profiles) which could limit the strength of updrafts. Precipitation comes to an end late tonight with west-northwesterly winds ushering in cooler and drier air. Even cooler air builds in Wednesday through the end of the week with highs in the 40s and 50s.
The well-advertised low pressure system continues to stay largely on track giving plenty of rain to the Northland. This mature low-pressure system will continue moving northward today, reaching southeast Manitoba and bringing more rain to the Northland. As the low reaches Winnipeg, it will stall temporarily before rapidly deepening into a new system over the eastern Great Lakes.
Cold front behind trough from central MT into western WY is starting to accelerate eastward. Water vapour loop had compact upper low over western KS with 130kt jet streak ahead it. Northern upper trough spilling from the northern Rockies into the northern Plains. Northern upper trough saunters into the Dakotas and combines with weak 800-600mb frontogenesis over the northwest third of the CWA creating a band of light precipitation, changing quickly to snow after sunset. Tuesday, upper lows merge over northwest MN with deep subsiding surface-700mb northwest flow over the CWA.
108 AM EST Tue Nov 19 2024 An upper level low will exit across the Maritimes overnight. High pressure builds in Tuesday through Wednesday.
1148 PM CST Mon Nov 18 2024 - The passage of a cold front tonight will be accompanied by scattered to numerous showers and breezy conditions.