Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1252 PM EDT Mon Sep 8 2025 A prolonged period of mostly dry weather is expected as high pressure dominates. KEY MESSAGES: - Below-normal temperatures and dry conditions continue --------------------------------------------------------------- High pressure will be centered basically right over the forecast area today. Heading into the overnight tonight, skies will clear out with temperatures again falling into the low 40s but some lower 30s are possible in the higher valleys of Eastern Tucker County.
Although a weak surface inverted trough extending from southern Alabama into central Alabama will lead to slightly higher dew points compared with yesterday, it will still be dry but pleasant. Highs are forecast to reach the upper 70s to lower 80s for most locations, with mid 70s for portions of the higher elevations of northeast Alabama and into southern middle Tennessee.
Temperatures just after noon today had already climbed into the low to mid 70s area wide, despite the presence of wildfire smoke aloft. A warm front lies somewhere between Brainerd and Bemidji and a thunderstorm has gone up just ahead of this boundary in north central Minnesota.
229 PM EDT Mon Sep 8 2025 A stalled front will linger offshore with ridging high pressure inland.
136 PM EDT Mon Sep 8 2025 High pressure centered over the Northeast will extend southwest into the Mid-Atlantic and the Carolinas through much of the work week.
The warm front continues to bring warmer temperatures to the region as the southwest has warmed up into the mid 80s. An upper level ridge is forecast to amplify across the Plains Tuesday leading to another round of near to above normal temperatures through the week.
1134 AM MDT Mon Sep 8 2025 - Expect isolated to scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms over the higher terrain daily through mid week.
134 PM PDT Mon Sep 8 2025 An upper low, currently off the coast of northern California and southern Oregon will move onshore tonight into early Tuesday.
Winds have been trending more toward the south-southeast today as the sprawling high pressure pushes more toward the New England region. An upper trough currently over the Dakotas and Nebraska will drift toward the upper Mississippi Valley on Tuesday. Significant ridging takes place over the central CONUS mid week, gradually edging east late week. All guidance points toward significantly warmer weather through the weekend, with some variation in the extent of it. The temperature forecast beyond that gets more complicated, as an upper low cuts off over the Great Lakes.
Upper-level ridging is progged to develop across the central CONUS during the middle to end of the week which will largely keep the Missouri Ozarks in a dry and warm pattern. High pressure over the area will be in control of the regions weather over the next 24 hours.
1233 PM CDT Mon Sep 8 2025 Longwave troughing over the Great Lakes region is beginning to lift away to the northeast. As it departs, a weak, residual upper trough is expected to linger across the southeast US through the week.
121 PM EDT Mon Sep 8 2025 High pressure maintains control through much of the week, yielding a stretch of dry weather amid gradually warming temperatures. Continued drying of soils from recent rainfall coupled with afternoon mixing into very dry air at the top of the boundary layer should allow afternoon RH values across the lower elevations to fall into the mid 20s to lower 30s, but with recent rainfall fire concerns, even in unsheltered fine fuels, will remain somewhat tame.
150 PM PDT Mon Sep 8 2025 * Fall-like system brings breezy winds, cooler temperatures, and dry conditions to the Desert Southwest this week.
144 PM EDT Mon Sep 8 2025 High pressure and dry conditions will be around for much of the week. High pressure and dry conditions are expected Tuesday and Tuesday night. Temperatures are still expected to be below normal, however they will be slightly warmer than Monday.
A broad area of low pressure is sitting about 80 to 100 miles off the west coast of Florida.
This ridge is expected to move very slowly to the east, displaying characteristics of a standing wave or weak blocking pattern. This is due to deep, H5 troughs on either side of the ridge, with slow movement to the east.
249 PM MDT Mon Sep 8 2025 - Expect isolated to scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms focused over the higher terrain the next few afternoons with a small chance of storms lingering into the early morning hours.
(Through tonight ) Mid level trough axis currently extends from central KS into W TX and is marked by the corridor of moisture and ongoing scattered convection. (Tomorrow through Monday) Wave weakens and loses influence by Tuesday evening as the mid level ridge axis becomes more aligned through the local region. This pattern remains largely in place into the weekend with heights rising as upper ridging strengthens through the central CONUS.
Short term guidance has trended away from any mention of sprinkles for the afternoon period, so kept a dry forecast running through the afternoon and evening as warmer air fills in aloft.
Gusts will be strongest atop and downwind (northeast) of the MN Buffalo Ridge, peaking 35 to 40 mph. Models are not handling this mid level "ridge rider" very well, but a combo of weak winds aloft (<20 kts at 500mb) coupled with proximity far from the broader ascent (upper trough near international border) should inhibit organized storms enough to prevent severe weather.
130 PM EDT Mon Sep 8 2025 High pressure builds in today and stays in control through at least Tuesday.
A gradual increase in the coverage of generally thin/translucent cirroform clouds is anticipated to continue this afternoon and overnight, related to strengthening diffluent flow aloft to our west (between a weak mid-level trough currently dropping into the Lower MS Valley and a convectively-induced vort max across eastern KS/western MO). Overnight lows will indeed be a bit warmer compared to last night (m50s-l60s), but this will largely be due to a subtle increase in boundary layer dewpoints today.
High pressure extending across the eastern Great Lakes will maintain its influence across Se Mi through the TAF period. Center of midlevel high pressure will push across portions of northern Lower Michigan today resulting in strongly anticyclonic and isentropic downglide trajectories today.
High pressure was in control across the eastern Great Lakes this afternoon and extended to the southwest into the Southern Plains. An elongated area of low pressure was in place over the Northern Plains with a warm front extending from southern North Dakota into central Minnesota and far western Wisconsin. Storms haven't shown much organization thus far but slightly better shear does arrive as the evening progresses as a low-level jet spread across the region behind the advancing warm front. Multiple rounds of showers and storms are expected for tonight into Tuesday as the warm front stalls out over the region and then starts to slowly move southeast as a cold front Tuesday. High pressure will build in for mid-week with upper level ridging pushing in from the west as well.
High pressure will be in place over the region tonight. Plenty of sunshine Tuesday should result in a quick rebound of temperatures into the low and mid 70's. However, boundary layer temperatures are modeled to be slightly warmer limiting any frost potential. A low pressure system is then modeled to track up the east coast.
- An upper level high will build over the region late in the week keeping rain chances out of the forecast.
(Rest of today through Tuesday) High pressure will be drifting off to the east tonight, allowing for southerly winds to return. This will allow for overnight lows in the 50s, slightly warmer than last night.
215 PM EDT Mon Sep 8 2025 High pressure stays in control through at least Tuesday.
133 PM EDT Mon Sep 8 2025 Dry and cool high pressure will persist over the region trough the week with below normal temperatures expected through mid-week. An upper trough settles over the area as well. Lows will be around 10 degrees below normal, with some 30s over the higher ridges in the NC mountains.
130 PM EDT Mon Sep 8 2025 High pressure building in from the north will bring cooler and drier weather to the area for the first half of the week. Temperatures are expectedly cooler today with highs expected in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Key message(s): - Cool and dry as high pressure fills into the region. There is little change in the forecast with a calm middle section of the week as high pressure remains in place and weak upper troughing stays west. At the surface, strong high pressure centered over New England will maintain northeasterly flow and surface ridging while an inverted trough offshore reinforces a moisture gradient across the coastal plain.
206 PM EDT Mon Sep 8 2025 A stalled front will linger offshore with ridging high pressure inland.
This trough will slowly shift eastward, with the axis reaching the Eastern Seaboard late in the week as an upper ridge builds to our west.
- Daytime highs will be in the upper 60s to mid 80s, and overnight lows in the low 50s to mid 60s.
(This evening through Tuesday night) Wow what a nice start to the new week! Temperatures early this morning ranged from a few (lucky) spots briefly touching the upper 50's to many in the low to mid 60's, with low 70's over the Southshore/SE LA. Did make adjustments to the next 6-8hrs (17-01Z) afternoon dewpoints to blend in 25th to 10th percentile to account for the NBM's common weak point in deterministic guidance, matching ongoing trends well so far which brings MinRH's into the low 30's areawide.
/NEW/ /Through Tuesday Night/ Two more days of below to near normal temperatures across the region before warmer temperatures arrive by mid week. This will be short-lived as temperatures tomorrow will be a few degrees warmer than today's.
Dry southerly flow today ahead of a trough approaching the Pac NW coast.
Southerly wind gusts of 20-25 mph are expected for areas along and east of the James River Valley, with a few 30 mph gusts possible east of the Highway 60 corridor.
As of typing this AFD, most locations have just warmed into the low 80s. Coupled with the low humidity, these values are actually quite nice for early September. The lower humidity will allow for temperatures to drop more efficiently this evening. Mid/upper ridging will build over C CONUS, returning us to normally hot conditions. By the second half of the week, most of the CWA is forecast to be in the low/mid 90s.
Overnight lows are expected to fall into the middle 50s, west of Highway 65, to middle 40s east of Highway 65 with areas having more cloud cover overnight staying on the warmer side. Synoptic models continue to show upper-level ridging moving over the central CONUS during the middle to end of the week which should keep the Missouri Ozarks in a dry and warm pattern. Most of the ensemble members keep ridging over the region significantly limiting rain. High pressure over the area will be in control of the regions weather over the next 24 hours.
Some drier air will move in across the lower levels and at the surface so DCAPE values are forecast to be higher so damaging wind gusts may also accompany the large hail threat.
1219 PM CDT Mon Sep 8 2025 - Dry conditions have taken hold of the region and this trend will continue into the foreseeable future - Temperatures will gradually warm back into the lower to mid 90s by the middle of the week - Despite returning to the lower to mid 90s, dewpoints will remain low enough that it shouldn't feel miserable No major changes to the forecast over the next 7 days. Current upper-air analysis shows a trough over the eastern CONUS and a ridge building in the southwest CONUS. As we move through the week, this ridge will only gradually push eastward and take hold of our region.
245 PM EDT Mon Sep 8 2025 * High pressure stretches from the Midwest to the mid Atlantic region will maintain dry conditions through most or all of this week with daytimes featuring partly to mostly sunny skies and low humidity. Dry weather with abundant sunshine and light wind will continue on Tuesday, though temperatures trend a few degrees higher, with most of Central Pennsylvania seeing highs in the low to mid 70s.
233 PM PDT Mon Sep 8 2025 * Fall-like system brings breezy winds, cooler temperatures, and dry conditions to the Desert Southwest this week.
525 PM MDT Mon Sep 8 2025 - Expect isolated to scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms focused over the higher terrain the next few afternoons with a small chance of storms lingering into the early morning hours.
740 PM EDT Mon Sep 8 2025 A stalled front will linger offshore with ridging high pressure inland.
Due to the upslope flow influenced by the closed low off California coast, this will induce more showers for most sites during this evening with isolated to scattered thunderstorms for KRDM/KBDN as well. /issued 134 PM PDT Mon Sep 8 2025/ An upper low, currently off the coast of northern California and southern Oregon will move onshore tonight into early Tuesday.
/Issued 1226 PM CDT Mon Sep 8 2025/ /Through Tuesday Night/ Two more days of below to near normal temperatures across the region before warmer temperatures arrive by mid week. This will be short-lived as temperatures tomorrow will be a few degrees warmer than today's.
732 PM EDT Mon Sep 8 2025 * High pressure stretches from the Midwest to the mid Atlantic region will maintain dry conditions through most or all of this week with daytimes featuring partly to mostly sunny skies and low humidity. Dry weather with abundant sunshine and light wind will continue on Tuesday, though temperatures trend a few degrees higher, with most of Central Pennsylvania seeing highs in the low to mid 70s.
- A cold front will impact the area later this week with cooler temperatures and lowering precipitation chances for the weekend. Low and Mid level water show moisture being advected in the region ahead of the low pressure system pushing into the West coast. During the overnight hours the ridge will begin to amplify creating a nocturnal inversion. Primary forecast concern in the long range forecast will be the upper level Pacific trough.
727 PM EDT Mon Sep 8 2025 High pressure centered over the Northeast will extend southwest into the Mid-Atlantic and the Carolinas through much of the work week. There is a notable change in airmass across the area with dew points now in the lower 40s in the Triad (42 at KINT and 44 at KGSO at 18Z) and PW values around a half inch to dew points in the lower to mid 50s in the Coastal Plain and PW values near an inch.
Then, our warming trend continues through the rest of the period as we transition from broad troughing to a ridge of high pressure. Chattanooga Airport, TN 81 57 83 57 / 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 78 54 80 55 / 0 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 78 54 80 54 / 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 75 48 76 49 / 0 0 0 0.
735 PM EDT Mon Sep 8 2025 A broad area of low pressure is sitting about 80 to 100 miles off the west coast of Florida.
A few showers formed over the Lower Keys shortly after sunset resulting in a quick downpour from mainly Cudjoe Key to Big Pine Key. Temperatures along the Island Chain are in the lower to mid 80s from the Middle Keys to Lower Keys with upper 70s for the Upper Keys. A similar pattern to recent days remains in place with weak low pressure over the east-central Gulf and weak high pressure across the Bahamas. This trough will be slowly sheared out mid to late week.
712 PM EDT Mon Sep 8 2025 Drier and cooler weather will persist for much of the week as high pressure becomes well established across the region. Diurnal clouds will dissipate as the sun sets, and winds will lessen as the high settles directly over the region. The usual cold hollows could approach freezing, so the frost advisory remains in place for these areas. Tuesday and Tuesday night will be quite similar to today/tonight, just a few degrees warmer both periods. High pressure will shift a bit eastward for mid week, though it will still have a firm hold on our region.
720 PM EDT Mon Sep 8 2025 Dry and cool high pressure will persist over the region trough the week with below normal temperatures expected through mid-week. Aloft, troughing will remain overhead. Lows tonight will end up around 10 degrees below normal, with temps dipping into the 30s across the higher ridges in the NC mountains.
939 PM EDT Mon Sep 8 2025 A prolonged period of mostly dry weather is expected as high pressure dominates. KEY MESSAGES: - Quiet and dry weather through Tuesday --------------------------------------------------------------- High pressure will remain in control for the foreseeable future.
927 PM EDT Mon Sep 8 2025 High pressure will bring mainly dry weather for much of this week, with below normal temperatures trending closer to seasonal levels by midweek. Outlying/high terrain areas have cooled a few degrees quicker than the previous forecast, while valley areas have remained up to a couple degrees warmer. With the cool/dry air mass in place and the core of high pressure approaching with light/calm winds tonight, temps should drop off to levels around 2-3F degrees lower than last night toward daybreak. This should allow min temps to drop into the lower/mid 30s across the eastern Catskills, Schoharie County and SW Adirondacks, with patchy/areas of frost developing.
234 PM PDT Mon Sep 8 2025 A low pressure system will gradually bring cooler weather this week and temperatures will be mostly below normal.
745 PM EDT Mon Sep 8 2025 High pressure building in from the north will bring cooler and drier weather to the area for the first half of the week. With winds staying up we can expect low temperatures to be in the low 60s despite much lower dewpoints. Key message(s): - Cool and dry as high pressure fills into the region. There is little change in the forecast with a calm middle section of the week as high pressure remains in place and weak upper troughing stays west. At the surface, strong high pressure centered over New England will maintain northeasterly flow and surface ridging while an inverted trough offshore reinforces a moisture gradient across the coastal plain.
Overnight lows are expected to fall into the middle 50s, west of Highway 65, to middle 40s east of Highway 65 with areas having more cloud cover overnight staying on the warmer side. Synoptic models continue to show upper-level ridging moving over the central CONUS during the middle to end of the week which should keep the Missouri Ozarks in a dry and warm pattern. Most of the ensemble members keep ridging over the region significantly limiting rain.
744 PM EDT Mon Sep 8 2025 A period of tranquil early autumn weather is in store for the central Appalachians this week as a strong high pressure system settles over the region. However, overnight and early morning hours will be notably cooler, bringing a crisp feel to the air. Expect quiet weather courtesy of strong area of high pressure. Overnight and early mornings temperatures will be notably cooler with lows in the 40s. On the flip-side, the afternoons will feature mild conditions with highs ranging from the 60s mountains to the lower to mid 70s in the foothills and piedmont.
659 PM EDT Mon Sep 8 2025 High pressure and dry conditions will be around for much of the week. With high pressure in place over the eastern Great Lakes, winds will die down overnight going either calm or remaining very light. High pressure and dry conditions are expected Tuesday and Tuesday night. Temperatures are still expected to be below normal, however they will be slightly warmer than Monday.
641 PM CDT Mon Sep 8 2025 (This evening through Tuesday night) Wow what a nice start to the new week! Temperatures early this morning ranged from a few (lucky) spots briefly touching the upper 50's to many in the low to mid 60's, with low 70's over the Southshore/SE LA. Did make adjustments to the next 6-8hrs (17-01Z) afternoon dewpoints to blend in 25th to 10th percentile to account for the NBM's common weak point in deterministic guidance, matching ongoing trends well so far which brings MinRH's into the low 30's areawide.
- Temperatures remain warmer than average this week, with most days in the mid to upper 80s. Temperatures remain on the warmer side tomorrow, with widespread highs in the mid to upper 80s. Mostly cloudy skies should continue to keep overnight lows slightly warmer, with lows in the mid 50s to low 60s. An upper level trough slowly tracks across the western United States, keeping us mostly in a ridge pattern. This will keep temperatures warmer than average through the end of the week. Daily highs remain mostly in the mid to upper 80s, with some locations breaking into the lower 90s.
High pressure is sitting off to the northeast of us and that will keep quiet conditions in place as we head into the overnight. Weak southerly flow develops and that will keep things a bit warmer than what we saw last night but it will still be chilly with lows in the 50s. (Rest of today through Tuesday) High pressure will be drifting off to the east tonight, allowing for southerly winds to return. This will allow for overnight lows in the 50s, slightly warmer than last night.
(Through tonight) Mid level trough axis currently extends from central KS into W TX and is marked by the corridor of moisture and ongoing scattered convection. (Tomorrow through Monday) Wave weakens and loses influence by Tuesday evening as the mid level ridge axis becomes more aligned through the local region. This pattern remains largely in place into the weekend with heights rising as upper ridging strengthens through the central CONUS.
A tornado or two also cannot be ruled out, with the higher potential later this evening. Some drier air will move in across the lower levels and at the surface so DCAPE values are forecast to be higher so damaging wind gusts may also accompany the large hail threat.
This week will see active weather and cooler temperatures as a slow moving system affects the region.
705 PM EDT Mon Sep 8 2025 High pressure will bring mainly dry weather for much of this week, with below normal temperatures trending closer to seasonal levels by midweek. With the cool/dry air mass in place and the core of high pressure approaching with light/calm winds tonight, temps should drop off to levels around 2-3F degrees lower than last night toward daybreak. This should allow min temps to drop into the lower/mid 30s across the eastern Catskills, Schoharie County and SW Adirondacks, with patchy/areas of frost developing.
Current temps range from the high 70s in urban areas to mid 60s in our terrain areas. Despite another night of mostly clear skies, temps will be a few degrees warmer than last night due to a slight increase in dew points. Tomorrow, the pattern will remain largely unchanged with high pressure from the NE remaining dominant at the surface. This will amount to mostly clear skies, no rain chances, and slightly moderated highs in the low to mid 80s.
613 PM EDT Mon Sep 8 2025 A prolonged period of mostly dry weather is expected as high pressure dominates. KEY MESSAGES: - Quiet and dry weather through Tuesday --------------------------------------------------------------- High pressure will remain in control for the foreseeable future.
At 8 PM MDT satellite imagery showed an upper low just off the Calif coast near Crescent City. A lobe of showers and thunderstorms extended from the low to northeast OR (north of Baker County), and was pivoting away from our CWA. Our CWA should remain dry through the night, although clouds will increase in Harney County as the low center edges inland. Further eastward progress of the low will be slow, and showers/ thunderstorms in our area Tuesday will be mainly due to destabilization, while stratiform rain closer to the low center gradually spreads eastward across Oregon.
High pressure across the eastern CONUS is still the prevailing influence, but an upper-level disturbance interacting with an easterly surface wave will bring a slight chance for showers and thunderstorms to the Gulf Coast areas tomorrow. Trough pattern continues to move eastward, limiting rain chances across majority of the area and keeping northerly winds across the area.