Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
747 PM EDT Wed Jun 11 2025 High pressure builds in today into Thursday, with warmer than normal temperatures. Warmer than normal temperatures. As the high pressure starts to slowly slide eastward Thursday, increasing moisture return and upslope south to southwesterly flow could spark a few isolated showers and thunderstorms late Thursday afternoon/evening.
914 PM EDT Wed Jun 11 2025 A series of upper level disturbances will affect the area through the weekend while high pressure remains offshore. Guidance indicates potential (10-30%) for fog development across inland portions of the Low Country - especially Berkeley, Dorchester, and Colleton Co, where scattered to widespread rainfall occurred this afternoon.
- Cooler with periods of showers and storms Thursday through the weekend. A weak cold front will move south across Se Mi late this evening into the overnight, resulting in a wind shift to the east-northeast. Notably warmer this afternoon as Southeast Michigan situates within the warm sector of low pressure set to cross central Lake Huron this evening. Expect additional gusts around 35 mph, particularly for The Thumb region, as the low exits. Cross-meridionally oriented cold frontal boundary descends upon Lower Michigan tonight bringing potential for precipitation after 06Z Thursday. Pattern characterized as a bit cool with persistent easterly flow, governed by ridging to the north.
/NF/ Through Thursday night: As previously mentioned, a significant upper level pattern change is underway with subtropical ridging expected to be more prominent. The weaker upper level winds and steering flow will allow a cut-off low to our west to meander slowly for a few days and gradually approach the lower/mid MS Valley.
754 PM EDT Wed Jun 11 2025 High pressure remains intact through Thursday, keeping the forecast dry. The increased cloud coverage will limit outgoing longwave radiation and lead to warmer overnight lows in the middle to upper 60s.
500 PM CDT Wed Jun 11 2025 - Slightly cooler today and tomorrow, with afternoon highs in the mid 80s to near 90.
Otherwise, only minor adjustments to the forecast with some lingering cloud cover and a seasonably mild night in the low to mid 70s.
This is consistent with the now southwestward displacement and modest strengthening of an expansive high pressure system, now centered just east of the island of Bermuda. Late this afternoon and early evening, a band of scattered showers and thunderstorms pushed through much of the Middle and Upper Keys, with many locations receiving between one-tenth and one- quarter of an inch of rainfall, with the Lower Keys remaining dry. Skies are partly cloudy across the Island Chain, with temperatures generally in the lower to mid 80s.
The high temperatures for Thursday are expected to be in the lower to mid 80s along the Brazos Valley and Piney Woods region, and the mid to upper 80s elsewhere. Otherwise, expect partly cloudy to cloudy skies and low temperatures in the lower to mid 70s for areas north of I-10 and the upper 70s to lower 80s for areas near and south of I-10.
727 PM EDT Wed Jun 11 2025 (Rest of today through Thursday) High pressure will remain over the Western Atlantic waters keeping an east southeast wind flow over South Florida. Therefore, showers and thunderstorms should develop along the sea breezes and focus the the highest coverage over the western areas of South Florida where they collide.
- Cooler with periods of showers and storms Thursday through the weekend. Advertised cold front is in the process of gradually sagging south through southern lower MI early this morning with little fanfare thus far overnight.
209 AM EDT Thu Jun 12 2025 A series of upper level disturbances will affect the area through the weekend while high pressure remains offshore. Lows are forecast to range from around 70 inland, to the low to mid 70s along the coast.
Cluster analysis suggests shows upper level ridging over the Intermountain West. With the low levels predominantly remaining out of the south and southwest we will continuously see gulf moisture moving through the area.
Max temps across these areas will stay cooler, with highs in the 60s to lower 70s.
1133 PM EDT Wed Jun 11 2025 - Cooler with periods of showers and storms Thursday through the weekend.
1151 PM CDT Wed Jun 11 2025 (Rest of tonight and Thursday) Tranquil weather across the Tennessee Valley late this evening, with high pressure at the surface promoting dry conditions. High clouds will filter into the region overnight from lingering convection over the Southern Plains and the Lower Mississippi Valley. These clouds will have little effect on the weather except to keep temperatures a tick warmer tonight, with overnight lows bottoming out in the mid to upper 60s.
The highest precipitation totals will be south of the Missouri River. Scattered to numerous showers and isolated thunder will move north across the region today as a weakening upper trough moves through eastern Montana and a quasi-stationary front stays to the south. The trough moves to the east tonight which will reduce the coverage of the showers to isolated overnight.
242 AM EDT Thu Jun 12 2025 Expect high pressure to weaken today while moisture starts to creep back north into the Carolinas and southern Virginia.
The low-level flow will gradually become light southerly or southeasterly. For tonight, the coverage of storms will wane after sunset with overnight lows generally in the low to mid 70s.
Areas away from the coast will remain drier and much warmer than normal. ***UPDATE*** The low clouds and fog are generally staying just off the coast (except for Los Angeles County) but do not see any reason why they will not quickly surge back in tonight with a similar coverage as last night.
- Cooler but still warm with isolated showers and thunderstorms mainly over the mountains through the weekend Breezy winds and dry conditions through Thursday will lead to elevated fire weather conditions in Central Washington.
134 AM EDT Thu Jun 12 2025 High pressure continues to dominate the region today, allowing for dry conditions and slightly above normal temperatures. Nearly calm winds overnight tonight, with lows in the lower 60s all but eastern forecast area, where upper 50s are more possible. With high pressure and only scattered thin cirrus overnight, valley fog again expected to develop. The increased cloud coverage will limit outgoing longwave radiation and lead to warmer overnight lows in the middle to upper 60s.
(Rest of tonight and Thursday) Tranquil weather across the Tennessee Valley late this evening, with high pressure at the surface promoting dry conditions. High clouds will filter into the region overnight from lingering convection over the Southern Plains and the Lower Mississippi Valley. These clouds will have little effect on the weather except to keep temperatures a tick warmer tonight, with overnight lows bottoming out in the mid to upper 60s.
327 AM EDT Thu Jun 12 2025 A cold front will cross the region today.
108 AM EDT Thu Jun 12 2025 High pressure builds in today into Thursday, with warmer than normal temperatures. Warmer than normal temperatures. As the high pressure starts to slowly slide eastward Thursday, increasing moisture return and upslope south to southwesterly flow could spark a few isolated showers and thunderstorms late Thursday afternoon/evening.
238 AM EDT Thu Jun 12 2025 High pressure continues to dominate the region today, allowing for dry conditions and slightly above normal temperatures. The upper level ridge continues to push east today, allowing for light SW flow to bring in increasing low level moisture. While much of the region remains under the influence of high pressure centered to the SE of the region, a nearly stationary boundary across the lower Great Lakes would bring shower activity to our north. Some variance in how the trough maintains its strength and whether or not it becomes closed as it approaches the western Ohio Valley, so timing is a bit uncertain.
pdf Low level high pressure ridge axis from the Western Atlantic lifts just north of the local area and will shift to a more Southeast steering flow, this will help the East Coast sea breeze to push well inland to the US 301 corridor, where convection will develop and interact with the Gulf Coast sea breeze with another afternoon of scattered to numerous storms with heavy rainfall and gusty winds that will zipper northward from inland NE FL across inland SE GA similar to today. Max temps will push into the lower 90s inland and upper 80s/near 90F along the Atlantic Coast with peak heat indices in the 100-105F range. Seasonably mild temps overnight with lows in the lower/middle 70s inland and upper 70s along the Atlantic Coast.
1205 AM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025 - Slightly cooler today and tomorrow, with afternoon highs in the mid 80s to near 90.
335 AM EDT Thu Jun 12 2025 A series of upper level disturbances will affect the area through the weekend while high pressure remains offshore. Today: Aloft, ridging will continue to be centered from just off the east coast of FL and extending into the forecast area and the Southeast. Temperatures are forecast to reach the low 90s in most places. Lows are forecast to fall into the low to mid 70s. The forecast area will remain on the backside of high pressure at the surface and aloft late week into the weekend. The surface will feature high pressure offshore and a trough of low pressure inland. Today and tonight: High pressure to the east in the Atlantic will drive southerly onshore flow across the local waters through the period.
Discussion: In the upper levels, a trough is centered near AR/LA/TX today and tonight. A ridge is over the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast. With a trough to the west and high pressure to the east, deep layer southerly flow will be pumping in moisture bringing dew points into the 70s today for the Southern and Central Tennessee Valley. The freezing level will be very high making it difficult for large hail to reach the surface. Temperatures will be warmer in the mid to upper 80s.
Upper level ridging north of the Bahamas ridges westward across north-central Florida and into the eastern gulf. On the surface, strong high pressure located near Bermuda ridges west-southwestward across northern Florida and into the northeastern gulf.
Westerly wind gusts around 30 mph will diminish this evening and a slightly cooler air mass will settle over the region.
(Today) High clouds have begun to filter in ahead of a low pressure system currently located in the Plains. Through the day today, this low pressure system will slowly migrate from the Plains towards the Mississippi Valley. At the surface, dew points in the high 60s to low 70s will plague the TN Valley by this afternoon. While high temps will top out in the mid to high 80s, the high tropical dewpoints will surge heat indices into the 90s for most of the area.
258 AM EDT Thu Jun 12 2025 High pressure continues to dominate the region today, allowing for dry conditions and slightly above normal temperatures. The upper level ridge continues to push east today, allowing for light SW flow to bring in increasing low level moisture. While much of the region remains under the influence of high pressure centered to the SE of the region, a nearly stationary boundary across the lower Great Lakes would bring shower activity to our north. Some variance in how the trough maintains its strength and whether or not it becomes closed as it approaches the western Ohio Valley, so timing is a bit uncertain.
(Today and tonight) Northerly flow on the back side of the upper low is helping keep the FA quiet this morning. Upper flow will shift more northwesterly through the day as the upper low pushes off to the east and upper ridging moves over New Mexico/Colorado. The rest of the night should be quiet with lows in the low to upper 60s.
712 AM EDT Thu Jun 12 2025 A series of upper level disturbances will affect the area through the weekend while high pressure remains offshore. Today: Aloft, ridging will continue to be centered from just off the east coast of FL and extending into the forecast area and the Southeast. Temperatures are forecast to reach the low 90s in most places. Lows are forecast to fall into the low to mid 70s. The forecast area will remain on the backside of high pressure at the surface and aloft late week into the weekend. The surface will feature high pressure offshore and a trough of low pressure inland. Today and tonight: High pressure to the east in the Atlantic will drive southerly onshore flow across the local waters through the period.
The southwesterly turn in winds in the profile is in response to a trough pushing ashore over the Pacific NW. While the trough will help minimal impact across the area it will tighten the pressure gradient over the region.
Southwest flow aloft increases, bringing warmer and drier air in, mainly to southwestern portions of the area.
621 AM EDT Thu Jun 12 2025 Expect high pressure to weaken today while moisture starts to creep back north into the Carolinas and southern Virginia. Warmer than normal temperatures. The upper pattern features a ridge over the southeast US with southwest flow shaping up into southern Virginia with an embedded vort tracking across western NC this afternoon. Should be dry for most areas today with warmer than normal temperatures, reaching around 90 possibly in the Piedmont, depending on extent of any high clouds that blowoff from any storms that form across the Carolinas into TN. Numerical models and ensembles are showing a 20-40 percent probabilistic of seeing measurable rainfall from the southern Blue Ridge southwest of Floyd/Galax this afternoon/evening but little to none north of a line from Marion to Reidsville.
640 AM EDT Thu Jun 12 2025 * A slow moving cold front drifts south through PA this afternoon and tonight bringing isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms along and ahead of it. CAPE values get moderately high along and just to the south of a slow moving cold front this afternoon and evening with max temps peaking for the week in the 80-90F range and sfc TDs in the mid 50s to low 60s. Limiting factors at this stage include displacement of best lift (well to the north) and relatively weak llvl convergence along the southward moving cold front - which reduces confidence to some extent.
Showers and weak thunderstorms over northern and eastern areas were continuing to pivot around an area of low pressure centered southern MT overnight. Showers and thunderstorms will gradually lift into northeastern MT and the Dakotas today, as the low slowly lifts off to the northeast.
A weak upper trough will move into Western Washington today then remain over the area on Friday. This will lead to cooler temperatures, increased cloud cover, and occasional chances for mountain showers and coastal drizzle. Upper ridging will weakly rebuild late in the weekend for a modest warming trend before another trough approaches the area early in the coming week.
- Cooler today and Friday, with highs in the 60s, before warming back up through the weekend. Instability is expected to be minimal, with maybe around 300-400 J/kg across the far south through the day, so thunderstorm development is expected to be on the lower end. The potential for severe weather also begins to increase a bit, with multiple long range severe guidance suggesting at least low probabilities for severe weather on various days, with the highest chances in the south.
Friday, high pressure builds in well to our south as southwesterly flow sets up across the area.
Near the surface, a weak lee side trough of low pressure remains anchored in eastern Colorado. A relatively dry pattern is forecast to continue early in the period as the SREF points to a northerly flow aloft persisting across the Western High Plains as a closed upper low is slow to depart eastward through the Ark-La-Tex region. Thunderstorm chances (20-30%) pick up a little late Friday as weak H5 vort maxima begin to eject eastward out of the Colorado Rockies off a slowly northward building ridge axis.
Precipitation chances will diminish over the weekend, though low to medium chances (20-40%) will persists over the Victoria Crossroads and the Coastal Bend as a mid-level trough extends into our area.
- Cooler with periods of showers and storms Thursday through the weekend. Dry air in the lower troposphere brings a high likelihood for VFR conditions today and tonight. Advertised cold front is in the process of gradually sagging south through southern lower MI early this morning with little fanfare thus far overnight.
An elongated weak upper-level low/trough extending from the Lower Missouri Valley to central Texas will slowly lift northeast to the Mid-Mississippi River Valley by the end of the short term Friday evening. Outside of a stray shower/storm or two, convection will diminish into the overnight tonight, with warmer lows expected in the 60s except in the typically cooler valleys where a few upper 50s are possible.
- A strong ridge of high pressure will build over the Desert Southwest this weekend, promoting the hottest temperatures so far this year.
A weak mid level low is centered over Oklahoma into northern Texas this morning, with associated weak troughing across Texas into eastern OK and western Arkansas. The weak mid level low and trough will continue to slowly migrate to the northeast into this afternoon, with CAMs suggesting another cluster of showers and thunderstorms developing across the Ozarks by early afternoon and moving north northeastward toward our region, again likely weakening as they move north, with the best chances for storms for areas along and south of a Butler to Boonville line. High temps for Friday should range from the lower to mid 80s with soupy conditions thanks to dewpoints in the upper 60s.
pdf High pressure will be centered to the east northeast of the region through Tonight. pdf Low level high pressure ridge axis from the Western Atlantic lifts just north of the local area and will shift to a more Southeast steering flow, this will help the East Coast sea breeze to push well inland to the US 301 corridor, where convection will develop and interact with the Gulf Coast sea breeze with another afternoon of scattered to numerous storms with heavy rainfall and gusty winds that will zipper northward from inland NE FL across inland SE GA similar to today. Max temps will push into the lower 90s inland and upper 80s/near 90F along the Atlantic Coast with peak heat indices in the 100-105F range. Seasonably mild temps overnight with lows in the lower/middle 70s inland and upper 70s along the Atlantic Coast.
629 AM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025 (Tonight through Friday night) An upper level trough over the Southern Plains looks to slowly move east through the short term period. This trough will likely continue to provide elevated forcing across portions of Texas.
Also, massaged temperatures slightly cooler and increased cloud cover a bit to account for weak disturbance approaching from northeast Arkansas. The greatest opportunity for a shower or thunderstorm initially appears to be over the higher elevations near the Tennessee/Kentucky and Virginia/Kentucky borders before drifting northward and diminishing as they encounter weaker instability. An elongated weak upper-level low/trough extending from the Lower Missouri Valley to central Texas will slowly lift northeast to the Mid-Mississippi River Valley by the end of the short term Friday evening. Outside of a stray shower/storm or two, convection will diminish into the overnight tonight, with warmer lows expected in the 60s except in the typically cooler valleys where a few upper 50s are possible.
518 AM EDT Thu Jun 12 2025 * A slow moving cold front drifts south through PA this afternoon and tonight bringing isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms along and ahead of it. CAPE values get moderately high along and just to the south of a slow moving cold front this afternoon and evening with max temps peaking for the week in the 80-90F range and sfc TDs in the mid 50s to low 60s. Limiting factors at this stage include displacement of best lift (well to the north) and relatively weak llvl convergence along the southward moving cold front - which reduces confidence to some extent.
Max temps across these areas will stay cooler, with highs in the 60s to lower 70s. With lingering cooler air across NW/WCentral SD, the best instability will be across northeast WY, the Black Hills, toward SW/SCentral SD.
744 AM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025 Issued Flood Watch for the Victoria Area for Today given the current radar trends, Moderate ERO and slow moving synoptic scale trough advancing across the state. Precipitation chances will diminish over the weekend, though low to medium chances (20-40%) will persists over the Victoria Crossroads and the Coastal Bend as a mid-level trough extends into our area.
An upper level trough is moving across TX tonight, and there is a stationary front stretched over Central TX. Showers and storms will move away from the area tonight as the upper trough moves off to the northeast. The low level flow will remain from the south to southeast keeping the airmass warm and moist.
Upper level trough situated along the West coast will keep moisture streaming into Southeast Idaho in southwest flow aloft for Thursday and Friday, supporting another round of isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms today. Strengthening high pressure over the Southwest will mean warming temperatures and mostly dry conditions across Southeast Idaho over the weekend.
Tomorrow, the upper-level low/trough will lift northeast over the Ozarks, reinforcing the south-southwest flow and the surge in moisture across Georgia.
725 AM EDT Thu Jun 12 2025 High pressure will keep the area mostly dry and warm through Friday morning.
7 inch PWAT on 12z JAN sounding) reinforced by southerly flow on the eastern flank of a cutoff upper low will be supportive of isolated scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon. Notable cirrus blow off from a festering complex over eastern Texas could limit coverage earlier on, but should steadily increase later this afternoon and evening as the low gradually shifts east.
609 AM EDT Thu Jun 12 2025 A cold front will cross the region today. High pressure will cross the region Friday.
637 AM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025 (Today through Friday) Upper trough over central Texas early this morning, with ridging to the east off the Florida coast, and to the west from Baja California to Colorado. Upper trough will progress somewhat eastward over the next 36 hours, extending from Missouri to western Louisiana by tomorrow evening. The overall heavy rainfall threat is marginal at best, but with the high precipitable water values, any storm could be a rather efficient rain producer, at least briefly.
Satellite this morning shows an upper low currently over the Texas Hill Country.
Discussion: Deep southwest flow continues to strengthen across the southern Appalachians as an upper trough over Texas slowly moves northeast. Increasing moisture and instability is pulling north with the highest values across the southern half of Tennessee and southwest North Carolina. Hail potential is limited due to high freezing levels (around 15kft), limited shear and CAPE within the hail growth region. Upper trough will remain well west of the area with the main forcing remaining area terrain.
Temperatures are seasonably warm, ranging in the lower to middle 80s. Meanwhile, weak low pressure is situated over northeast Texas.
The upper low currently situated over the southern plains will shift off to the northeast, maintaining southerly flow over the area through much of the weekend. As the upper disturbance shifts east, and high pressure builds from the west, flow will shift westerly.
- Cooler with periods of showers and storms Thursday through the weekend. This drier air precedes the next upper low that will lift toward the airspace through the TAF period and generate intervals of low VFR (4. Advertised cold front is in the process of gradually sagging south through southern lower MI early this morning with little fanfare thus far overnight.