Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A vertically continuous high pressure continues to reside over the southern Rockies. It will track into SW Kansas during the Wednesday/Thursday overnight providing some relief to the highs on Wednesday. During the Wednesday/Thursday overnight the low pressure system will impact SW Kansas bring colder air and precipitation potential. A cold front off of the low pressure system will help to initiate convection and move into Kansas. This cold front will begin the cooler and wetter period, but looking ahead this marginal severe threat is the only notable risk for the forecast period.
(Today and tonight) The upper ridge will remain in place today with light winds and subsidence aloft. With weak winds aloft, any storms that develop across the higher terrain in New Mexico will have very low chances of reaching the forecast area this evening.
With a pleasantly cooler and dryer airmass having settled in, it was difficult to find too much fault with conditions yesterday and overnight, aside from the pesky stratus deck. Shower and isolated thunder chances do return to the area late tonight ahead of a cool front that is beginning to drop through the northern Plains, associated with compact upper low dropping out of Canada. Majority of moisture will reside in the mid to upper levels as it is advected over the Rockies, ahead of the front, and the most robust lift also displaced further north most closely with the upper low.
1219 AM CDT Wed Aug 7 2024 - Cold front brings scattered showers and non-severe storms early Thursday morning. A broadly zonal pattern is in place across the western 2/3 of the CONUS this afternoon, with more amplified troughing (including TS Debby) over the East Coast. Surface ridging to the northeast will make for a cool night despite some returning clouds. Tomorrow looks to be slightly warmer than today, with high temperatures closer to average as ridging shifts east and winds turn more southeasterly.
Regional subjective surface analysis indicates a cold front moving south into central Missouri.
The 00Z Key West sounding sampled relatively weak lapse rates in the lower to mid levels, but well above normal PW of 2. Otherwise, high temps in the lower 90s combined with dewpoints in the upper 70s to near 80 will drive heat indices over 108F from late morning through the afternoon, and have once again issued a Heat Advisory for the island chain from 10 AM through 7 PM.
1136 PM CDT Tue Aug 6 2024 - Much cooler and less humid air will overspread the area tonight and dominate the area on Thursday.
Cooler and drier air will move back into central and eastern Idaho today, as the flow briefly turns westerly vs southwesterly.
140 AM EDT Wed Aug 7 2024 - Cooler and less humid Wednesday - Much cooler and low humidity this weekend. A modest push of cooler and slightly drier air has moved into central Indiana behind departing midlevel perturbation and associated surface wave. Much of the high resolution and statistical model guidance is cooler than a blended mean, and so it appears mid-50s for minimum temperatures are achievable in rural portions generally north of I-70.
Pleasant conditions are expected across West Tennessee, Northeast Arkansas, and the Missouri Bootheel due to a cold frontal passage.
High pressure building into the northern Great Lakes region maintains the pressure gradient across Lake Michigan overnight, allowing winds and waves to linger into Wednesday morning. High pressure is building in from the northern plains today. This high pressure system will keep conditions dry and cause winds to weaken heading into Wednesday.
1108 PM CDT Tue Aug 6 2024 Surface analysis this evening places a cold front from Ohio back through southwest Missouri and northern Oklahoma. Short-term model trends indicate the aforementioned cold front will drop into the Lower Mississippi Valley overnight into Wednesday morning. CJC A dry cold front will impact the Mid-South on Wednesday, providing some much needed relief from the heat and humidity through the end of the work week.
- Isolated to scattered storms redevelop this afternoon ahead of an advancing cold front.
158 AM EDT Wed Aug 7 2024 Tropical Cyclone Debby is currently centered just off the lower South Carolina Coast and is nearly stationary.
Another hot day with temperatures in the 90s and heat indices in the lower 100s. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening for parts of the higher terrain. Our area will mostly be under ridging aloft and high pressure at the surface. 90s for highs expected again for much of the forecast area; a couple of degrees warmer than yesterday.
Through Thursday: Surface analysis shows a broad high pressure system situated in the northern Great Lakes and a low pressure system centered in eastern KY. Winds will slowly start to decrease this afternoon as the high pressure begins to settle overhead. Temperatures on Thursday will be slightly warmer ahead of an approaching cold front with highs in the low 80s areawide. This cold front is expected to pass late Thursday afternoon, but dry mid-level air will inhibit precipitation from forming.
* Very pleasant weekend with cooler temperatures and lower humidity. A sfc cold front is now draped SW to NE through central KY early this morning. The clouds will limit sfc heating, and max temps in southern IN and the western half of central KY will be limited to the low to mid 80s. Have increased PoPs into the 20-30% range, with the higher values confined to the Bluegrass and Lake Cumberland regions.
1246 AM CDT Wed Aug 7 2024 (Tonight through Wednesday night) The center of the upper level ridge remains centered to our northwest with a slight weakness to our south. Seeing a decent coverage of afternoon fair weather cumulus clouds with temperatures in the lower to middle 90s for most of the area. The upper ridge is expected to build more into South-Central Texas tomorrow and with that should see a slight increase in temperatures. Another quiet night is expected tomorrow night with lows in the middle 70s to near 80 degrees with the highest temperatures near the Rio Grande.
Elsewhere, temps in the low 90s will be the norm. Similar temps are expected again on Thursday, maybe a couple of degrees cooler.
- Showers and cooler temperatures this weekend. Pattern Synopsis/Pattern Forecast: Surface ridging building across the Northwoods early this morning, bringing with it mostly clear skies and seasonably cool conditions. Weak cold front will run out ahead of this wave, cutting across the Upper Mississippi Valley later tonight. Details: Downright pleasant conditions expected across the area today as high pressure brings sun-filled skies. Don't think readings will get as chilly as currently (given a warmer start this evening), but looking at widespread interior lows in the lower and middle 50s, with some upper 40s possible across the Au Sable River Valley. Pattern Synopsis and Forecast: Upper low moves into the northern MN and vicinity region Thursday spreading southwest flow out ahead across northern Michigan.
We still remain under the influence of ridging at surface and aloft, with Tropical Storm Debby continuing its track up the east coast serving to reinforce ridging.
A vertically continuous high pressure continues to reside over the southern Rockies. It will track into SW Kansas during the Wednesday/Thursday overnight providing some relief to the highs on Wednesday. During the Wednesday/Thursday overnight the low pressure system will impact SW Kansas bring colder air and precipitation potential. A cold front off of the low pressure system will help to initiate convection and move into Kansas. This cold front will begin the cooler and wetter period, but looking ahead this marginal severe threat is the only notable risk for the forecast period. A southeast wind will dominate for the TAF period at 10-20 KTs with the occasional gust up to 25 KTs until about 6Z when a cold front moves through.
647 AM CDT Wed Aug 7 2024 - Widespread showers expected this afternoon into tonight ahead of a cold front.
856 AM EDT Wed Aug 7 2024 - Cooler and less humid Wednesday - Much cooler and low humidity this weekend A few updates have been made regarding theh ongoing stratus deck over the Ohio Valley. A modest push of cooler and slightly drier air has moved into central Indiana behind departing midlevel perturbation and associated surface wave. Much of the high resolution and statistical model guidance is cooler than a blended mean, and so it appears mid-50s for minimum temperatures are achievable in rural portions generally north of I-70.
Another active day is expected across the High Country, with showers and thunderstorms ramping up in the afternoon and carrying on through the evening hours. This persistent monsoonal activity is from high pressure dominating much of the Southwest mixed with easterly waves passing to our south. Although Arizona will stay underneath this ridge through the rest of the week, a trough is anticipated to sweep across the Pacific Northwest, weakening the area of high pressure. As we march into the weekend, model guidance suggests the aforementioned high pushing eastward, creating the potential for slightly drier air to push in on the westward side of this ridge.
current temps are about 3-5 degrees warmer across low elevations and about 10 degrees warmer at higher elevations than 24 hours ago. This warmer start paired with the overall lack of cloud cover this morning will lead to another hot day across the interior. Temperatures today look to be a bit warmer than originally forecast by a few degrees.
- Cooler than average temperatures rest of the week. WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: High pressure pushing south from Canada will keep scattered upslope showers over the region this morning. Conditions will begin to clear up through the afternoon with the high moving into the northern Plains. Aloft, a low pressure system rotating through central Canada will push the hot upper ridge westward, and bring cooler air into the region.
Some exceptions will be the higher elevations of northeast Georgia, and portions of east-central Georgia where ample cloud cover will remain.
406 AM CDT Wed Aug 7 2024 - Widespread showers expected this afternoon into tonight ahead of a cold front.
629 AM CDT Wed Aug 7 2024 (Today through Thursday) Hot temperatures will be the main story through the short term period, as Debby remains off to our east and the 500mb ridge to the west maintains control. A weak upper trough axis will stretch southwestward into the Missouri Bootheel, supporting a dry surface front that will move into western Tennessee and northern Mississippi this afternoon. Ahead of the boundary, guidance is advertising a good opportunity for low-level moisture pooling and dewpoints remaining in the lower 70s across our northwest and western counties this afternoon.
Even so isolated to scattered showers and storms are projected to develop over the higher terrain Thursday afternoon.
632 AM CDT Wed Aug 7 2024 (Today through Thursday afternoon) Upper level ridge broadens over the area for today and Thursday. Tonight cools down near normal with highs in the low to mid 70s for most with highs near 80F along the Rio Grande and in the eastern most counties of the CWA. The ridge axis centers itself near the region on Thursday and vaults afternoon highs an extra 2-4 degrees areawide. Rain chances fall to near zero due to stronger subsidence from the nearby ridge.
The bias correction in the forecast dewpoints in the NBM still looks like it is correctly bringing dewpoints on the higher side of the guidance envelope.
441 AM MDT Wed Aug 7 2024 - A cold front will approach the Continental Divide this morning, bringing temperatures down east of the Divide Wednesday and Thursday. The cold front, associated with an upper level low currently over Manitoba/Saskatchewan, is beginning to enter far northern portions of the CWA early this morning.
607 AM CDT Wed Aug 7 2024 (Today through Thursday) The subtropical ridge remains relatively weak over much of the Texas coastal counties, but the E-W oriented axis extending into NE TX is building south over Central TX today. This, along with an eastward nudge of the low to mid level thermal ridge from west TX will boost many of our high temperatures into Heat Advisory level temperature values of 103 to 104 and heat indices into the 108-110 degree range. This looks mainly to impact the lower threshold areas depicted for "Coastal Office" with similar values expected to fall just short of reaching the higher threshold areas depicted for "Rio Grande Valley". Slightly hotter weather is depicted for the Rio Grande areas Thursday, as is noted by the thermal ridge forecast and MOS guidances.
Most of the moisture within the column was in the lowest 2-3 km below 700mb or so, with drier air above, as indicated by the sampled mid-level RH of 31 percent and the sampled low-level RH of 83 percent. Another item of note is this morning's heat indices, thanks to dew points in the low-mid 80s across most of the area combined with air temps already in the mid-upper 80s to around 90 in a few spots.
640 AM CDT Wed Aug 7 2024 (Today and tonight) The upper ridge will remain in place today with light winds and subsidence aloft. With weak winds aloft, any storms that develop across the higher terrain in New Mexico will have very low chances of reaching the forecast area this evening.
High pressure to our west continues to dominate the forecast with dry northwesterly flow continuing.
This southward shift will be aided by the cold front, which is currently analyzed over Billings as of 3AM, continuing to shift south into Wyoming by mid- day. An isolated stronger thunderstorm is possible west of Billings this afternoon where the best instability and shear will reside, but the cooler temperatures and overall low CAPE will limit how strong any thunderstorms will get. Outside of precipitation, cooler temperatures and increased low clouds are expected to move into the region behind the front today through Thursday. However, areas that see thicker cloud cover may remain cooler than forecast.
645 AM EDT Wed Aug 7 2024 Slightly cooler air has moved into the area, with high pressure centered over southeastern Canada, and Tropical Storm Debby near the southeast coast.
558 AM CDT Wed Aug 7 2024 - Much cooler and less humid conditions will prevail through the coming weekend. Significantly cooler temperatures will be in place across the region today. While temperatures likely will remain in the 70s through at least early afternoon, any breaks in the clouds should boost readings into the low 80s. Thursday will be warmer (highs in the mid to upper 80s), but still not too bad given what we've recently endured. 00z guidance has trended a bit quicker with the trough diving down across the Great Lakes into the Ohio Valley late in the week.
Another active day is expected across the High Country, with showers and thunderstorms ramping up in the afternoon and carrying on through the evening hours. This persistent monsoonal activity is from high pressure dominating much of the Southwest mixed with easterly waves passing to our south. Although Arizona will stay underneath this ridge through the rest of the week, a trough is anticipated to sweep across the Pacific Northwest, weakening the area of high pressure. As we march into the weekend, model guidance suggests the aforementioned high pushing eastward, creating the potential for slightly drier air to push in on the westward side of this ridge. A similar round of showers/storms Wednesday afternoon and evening, developing first around 19Z along the higher terrain including KFLG/KGCN vicinity, then moving westward through the afternoon and evening before gradually diminishing after 03Z.
520 AM MDT Wed Aug 7 2024 - Cold front passage today with scattered showers and thunderstorms, a few storms possibly strong this afternoon across mainly far southern South Dakota. Current surface analysis shows low pressure over southern MB, with cold front stretching across western ND into southern MT. Upper level analysis shows low pressure over northern MB, with trough covering south central Canada. Near zonal flow in place further south across the northern Rockies and northern Plains, with high pressure still over mostly the Four Corners region. Cold front will gradually move southeast through the area today, with breezy north to northwest winds developing.
557 AM CDT Wed Aug 7 2024 (Today) Tranquil weather continues early this morning with a strong area of high pressure centered over the Southern Plains remaining the the dominant feature across the area. To the east of the region the remnants of Debby continue to churn along the SC/GA coastline, with any clouds and precipitation remaining in place over there thanks to the blocking ridge in place over the Tennessee Valley. The main story, however, will continue to be the mostly clear and very warm conditions as temperatures return to the low to mid 90s. The drier air present (along the strong subsidence from the ridge) should stunt afternoon convection again, and will allow us to mix out again in the afternoon.
The higher dew pts around 80F are lurking near the coast and will waver back and forth the next few days keeping the heat advisory valid.
535 AM EDT Wed Aug 7 2024 - Cooler and less humid Wednesday - Much cooler and low humidity this weekend. A modest push of cooler and slightly drier air has moved into central Indiana behind departing midlevel perturbation and associated surface wave. Much of the high resolution and statistical model guidance is cooler than a blended mean, and so it appears mid-50s for minimum temperatures are achievable in rural portions generally north of I-70.
(Rest of Today) With weak upper level ridging continuing to prevail, dry weather is forecast to continue through today for the Tennessee Valley. Our main concern this afternoon will be heat as high temperatures reach the low to mid 90s with heat indices in the 100-105 degree range.
High pressure will weaken over the region today and kick off a two day cooling trend.
1025 AM EDT Wed Aug 7 2024 Slightly cooler air has moved into the area, with high pressure centered over southeastern Canada, and Tropical Storm Debby near the southeast coast.
This mornings sounding indicated quite a bit of drier air has moved in through the lower and mid levels. This surge is often seen with any sort of larger scale troughing over the Florida Peninsula coupled with day time heating. The west-southwest steering and adequate low-level moisture will not preclude showers in the lee of the Lower Keys, thus VCSH remains in the TAF for MTH.
614 AM CDT Wed Aug 7 2024 Pleasant conditions are expected across West Tennessee, Northeast Arkansas, and the Missouri Bootheel due to a cold frontal passage.
952 AM CDT Wed Aug 7 2024 A cold front continues to trek southeast across the Mid-South this morning, accompanied by an MVFR cloud deck. ANS Pleasant conditions are expected across West Tennessee, Northeast Arkansas, and the Missouri Bootheel due to a cold frontal passage.
(This evening through Thursday) Upper level ridging and the associated dome of high pressure extending from southern CA to north TX will remain overhead through the short term period. Thankfully, a cooling trend is on the horizon thanks to an upper level low tracking across the upper Midwest which will sling a surface front across the region beginning Thursday afternoon.
Atmospheric instability is on the higher side as well. The highest CAPE values are expected along and south of the Mogollon Rim where values are forecast to range from 1000 J/kg to 1700 J/kg. Another active day is expected across the High Country, with showers and thunderstorms ramping up in the afternoon and carrying on through the evening hours. This persistent monsoonal activity is from high pressure dominating much of the Southwest mixed with easterly waves passing to our south. Although Arizona will stay underneath this ridge through the rest of the week, a trough is anticipated to sweep across the Pacific Northwest, weakening the area of high pressure. As we march into the weekend, model guidance suggests the aforementioned high pushing eastward, creating the potential for slightly drier air to push in on the westward side of this ridge.
338 PM CDT Wed Aug 7 2024 - Cooler than average temperatures continue through the remainder of the week and into the weekend.
The highest chances for rainfall are along and north of I-90.
Slightly cooler and drier air will continue to impact the Mid- South through the end of the week, ending the need for heat products.
1220 PM CDT Wed Aug 7 2024 (Today and tonight) The upper ridge will remain in place today with light winds and subsidence aloft. With weak winds aloft, any storms that develop across the higher terrain in New Mexico will have very low chances of reaching the forecast area this evening.
1214 PM CDT Wed Aug 7 2024 - Much cooler and less humid conditions will prevail through the coming weekend. Significantly cooler temperatures will be in place across the region today. While temperatures likely will remain in the 70s through at least early afternoon, any breaks in the clouds should boost readings into the low 80s. Thursday will be warmer (highs in the mid to upper 80s), but still not too bad given what we've recently endured. 00z guidance has trended a bit quicker with the trough diving down across the Great Lakes into the Ohio Valley late in the week.
1217 PM CDT Wed Aug 7 2024 A cold front continues to trek southeast across the Mid-South this morning, accompanied by an MVFR cloud deck. ANS Pleasant conditions are expected across West Tennessee, Northeast Arkansas, and the Missouri Bootheel due to a cold frontal passage.
Ridging aloft looks to remain the primary feature over interior NorCal through the remainder of the week. That being said, the majority of ensemble guidance does indicate some subtle weakening of the ridge as well, with broad troughing then expected to gradually build in over the weekend. The gradually shifting orientation of the ridge aloft should allow for some similarly gradual RH recovery through the end of the week, with more appreciable recovery gains over the weekend as troughing becomes more prominent.
For those at risk, reduce time in the sun during the warmest part of the day, stay hydrated, stay in a cool place during the heat of the day, move outdoor activities to cooler times of the day, and for those without air conditioning, use fans to keep air moving and open windows at night. With the upper-level ridge lingering longer than originally forecast, the marine layer was allowed to remain compressed but it was not saturated, so the skies stayed clear this morning. This led to temperatures starting off warmer than forecast and therefore posing the threat to exceed the maximum temperature forecast for the day, hence the extension of the Heat Advisory. The gradual cooling trend will truly begin and be felt tomorrow as coastal troughing begins to take shape offshore and the ridge begins to exit stage right.
1229 PM CDT Wed Aug 7 2024 (Today through Thursday) Hot temperatures will be the main story through the short term period, as Debby remains off to our east and the 500mb ridge to the west maintains control. A weak upper trough axis will stretch southwestward into the Missouri Bootheel, supporting a dry surface front that will move into western Tennessee and northern Mississippi this afternoon. Ahead of the boundary, guidance is advertising a good opportunity for low-level moisture pooling and dewpoints remaining in the lower 70s across our northwest and western counties this afternoon.
104 PM CDT Wed Aug 7 2024 (Rest of Today) With weak upper level ridging continuing to prevail, dry weather is forecast to continue through today for the Tennessee Valley. Our main concern this afternoon will be heat as high temperatures reach the low to mid 90s with heat indices in the 100-105 degree range.
Updated at 152 PM CDT Wed Aug 7 2024 - One more day (Thursday) of high heat indices (100-110 degrees) before cooler weather arrives for the weekend. Cooler temperatures will lag somewhat behind the wind shift.