Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
The higher amounts will be a quarter to a half an inch with the better chances east of I-29. Locations near the Buffalo Ridge in southwest MN could see a few tenths of an inch to upwards of an inch if the snow lingers long enough. Some slick driving conditions will be possible as temperatures drop to around freezing.
(Today through Thursday) The region will be mostly dry today with a slight chance for some showers mainly over the waters thanks to the upper level ridging over eastern CONUS.
104 PM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024 (Tonight through Thursday night) Update: Added a rip current statement to cover the high intensity south-to-north longshore currents underway along the barrier island beaches and likely to continue into this evening, based on a continuation of 4 to 5 feet surf waves and a southeast swell period of 6 to 7 seconds, from the southeast largely paralleling the coastline.
It looks as if the lowest inversion has weakened and is allowing some of the 1kft winds to make it to the sfc causing too much mixing. A cold front will move through the central plains and come to an abrupt stall near the Texarkana region late Thu. This will be close enough for our area to at least see the prefrontal trough induce some sh/ts well ahead of the actual sfc front with moisture loading helping this process. There will be some showers maybe a storm elsewhere, this is just the area with the highest prob of getting measured rainfall.
A ridge of high pressure will briefly move overhead today with highs warming to within a few degrees of normal. Skies are mostly sunny this morning, but clouds will increase this afternoon as a Pacific trough and cold front move onshore. Conditions deteriorating from the west after 31/00Z as cold front approaches, becoming generally MVFR in rain and snow, spreading eastward across the OR/ID border by 31/06Z.
The primary player in these strong to severe storms is the cold front currently positioned across SE Nebraska and central KS. The front is pushing up against a stout high pressure across the eastern CONUS tightening the pressure gradient keeping winds gusty through the morning. The resistance from the high keeps the front relatively stationary through the morning. Damaging winds remain the primary concern; however, bulk shear and helicity continue to suggest ample spin within the low layer of the atmosphere which keeps a tornado potential present.
Cold temperatures will stick around today and tomorrow morning as a low pressure system remains over the region. Behind the most recent trough a drier northwest flow has set up over northern Arizona.
309 PM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024 - A strong cold front brings wet and stormy weather for Halloween.
150 PM MDT Wed Oct 30 2024 - Rain/Snow chances end this evening with decreasing clouds and sub freezing temperatures.
It has been another fairly uneventful day across the Florida Keys, as the previously mentioned high pressure is still the dominating feature over the region. This may be due to a sliver of relatively cooler waters hugging the shoreline helping to stabilize the lower levels above the water. Otherwise, most of these clouds are simply passing by, occasionally blocking some sunlight. Our saving grace will continue to be the dew points in the lower 70s. From synopsis, a broad high pressure system over the North Atlantic will sink southward and weaken during the latter half of the week.
1110 AM EDT Wed Oct 30 2024 As a warm front lifts north and east of the region, high pressure remains centered just off the East Coast through Thursday.
An area of high pressure is pushing into our region today and through tonight. Thursday morning a low pressure moves to the southeast of North Dakota giving us a slight chance of a dusting of snow in the furthest eastern counties for West central Minnesota.
Thus, overnight lows will be quite mild in the lower to middle 60s for most areas.
pdf High pressure will be east northeast of the region this period. Weak troughs will develop over the coastal waters and move ashore. Each of these troughs will be capable of producing a few sprinkles or showers, mainly at the coast. In addition, this troughing will provide cloud development over eastern counties. Lows Tonight will range from the lower 60s inland to around 70 at the coast.
The primary player in these strong to severe storms is the cold front currently positioned across SE Nebraska and central KS. The front is pushing up against a stout high pressure across the eastern CONUS tightening the pressure gradient keeping winds gusty through the morning. The resistance from the high keeps the front relatively stationary through the morning. Damaging winds remain the primary concern; however, bulk shear and helicity continue to suggest ample spin within the low layer of the atmosphere which keeps a tornado potential present. Conditions deteriorate this afternoon as a cold front enters the region from the west.
With the strong body of high pressure and tight pressure gradient, the breezy east/northeasterly winds will continue though Thursday. As the mid level ridge builds into the region, dry air will advect into the area, especially in the mid-levels. Temperatures will be near normal with highs in the low to mid 80s and overnight lows dropping into the low 70s near Lake O and interior, and mid-70s along the east coast.
205 PM MDT Wed Oct 30 2024 After a day of sunshine today, clouds will be on the increase on Thursday as a weak weather system brings snow to the higher terrain south of I-90.
- Much cooler conditions are expected to dominate the region beginning tomorrow. A vigorous mid/upper trough was situated over the Rockies this afternoon with diffluent mid/upper flow extending downstream across the Central Plains. Elevated showers and thunderstorms were located across the Flint Hills while other sfc-based storms were beginning to develop along the slowly advancing cold front in south central KS and northern OK. Seasonably cool conditions are expected with highs in the low to mid 60s for most areas.
Water vapor shows large upper trof over the Rockies extending into the plains, with broad low over the WY/CO region. At the surface, ridge covers the western Dakotas. Drier weather with rebounding temps expected for the end of the week and early weekend as zonal flow and weak ridging aloft expands across the area.
553 PM MDT Wed Oct 30 2024 Updated Aviation DIscussion After a day of sunshine today, clouds will be on the increase on Thursday as a weak weather system brings snow to the higher terrain south of I-90.
This is likely a response to decent veering and associated forced lift in the lower troposphere sampled in the 00z sounding, as well as modest speed convergence in subtly freshening surface flow. Temperatures may briefly drop into the lower to mid 70s in any heavier downpour, but will likely settle in the mid to upper 70s at most locations. From synopsis, a broad high pressure system over the North Atlantic will sink southward and weaken during the latter half of the week.
We saw a cool morning across the region as low temperatures dipped into the upper 40s to lower 50s across the lower deserts and low to mid 40s for higher elevation areas such as Globe and San Carlos.
538 PM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024 - A strong cold front brings wet and stormy weather for Halloween.
Overnight low temperatures are forecast in the upper 60s west of I-95, though onshore flow will keep coastal areas in the lower 70s.
A cold front is moving across southeast Oregon, bringing showers and gusty westerly winds this evening. Conditions deteriorating from W to E with cold front.
Hoenisch After a day of sunshine today, clouds will be on the increase on Thursday as a weak weather system brings snow to the higher terrain south of I-90.
Another cool evening with overnight low temperatures dropping to near or just below freezing again for the coldest valleys south and east of Tucson.
640 PM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024 (The rest of this afternoon ) A surface pressure trough is tilted SW to NE across western OK into eastern KS. As deep ascent from the upper level low continues to spread over the area, we will see isolated to scattered elevated convection, and indeed this is already occurring. The main event will occur this evening and overnight as the best upper level lift overlays the cold front and the low level jet becomes quite strong. (Tonight through Wednesday) Much cooler and quieter weather will settle into the area for Thursday (Halloween) with northerly flow.
Cooler temperatures to move in behind the front late tonight, thus overnight lows look reasonable as well. (Tonight through Wednesday) Much cooler and quieter weather will settle into the area for Thursday (Halloween) with northerly flow.
Expect that to continue early this evening, before increasing towards and after midnight, as the pressure gradient between the high over the Atlantic and the frontal boundary over the central Great Lakes region SW into Arkansas increases overnight.
627 PM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024 (This evening through Thursday night) A strong upper level ridge is centered on the eastern side of the Appalachian Mountains and the CWA is on the western periphery of it. The ridge will flatten somewhat and spread more southwestward as an upper trough currently moving through the Rockies tracks northeastward to the Great Lakes by late Thursday. This northeastward track of the trough will limit the associated cold front's ability to push much farther south than northern Louisiana.
(This afternoon through Thursday) An upper-level ridge remains in place over the Eastern Seaboard and Appalachians, while high pressure and a resulting "wedge" are indicated on surface analysis. Of note, drizzle/light rain associated with the low-level cloud deck this morning resulted in a trace to a few hundredths of an inch of precip, so the dry streak underway since late September has ended across portions of metro Atlanta.
Cooler temperatures to move in behind the front late tonight, thus overnight lows look reasonable as well.
1155 PM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024 (This evening through Thursday night) A strong upper level ridge is centered on the eastern side of the Appalachian Mountains and the CWA is on the western periphery of it. The ridge will flatten somewhat and spread more southwestward as an upper trough currently moving through the Rockies tracks northeastward to the Great Lakes by late Thursday. This northeastward track of the trough will limit the associated cold front's ability to push much farther south than northern Louisiana.
- A wetting rainfall is expected as a cold front moves through the area tonight into early Friday morning.
An area of low pressure over Iowa is currently producing precipitation across southeastern South Dakota.
For Las Vegas, this means morning lows in the upper 40s and afternoon highs in the low 70s. An upper level trough begins to enter the region on Friday night, bringing the next opportunity for active weather in time for the weekend.
309 AM EDT Thu Oct 31 2024 High pressure will maintain dry and warm weather most of today. A band of showers is expected late today and tonight with a crossing cold front.
A new Pacific upper trough will move into southern California for the weekend and bring widespread showers and wind. Temperatures at 9 PM were running warmer than 9 PM yesterday for most places. The main exceptions were the low desert and portions of the mountains. Areas of frost are less likely this evening compared to last night, but lows in the High Desert are still expected to fall to the upper 30s. Highs Thursday are expected to be the same to a degree or two cooler than today west of the mountains and a degree or two warmer in the deserts. The next Pacific trough is taking a strong insider slider (inland across mountains and deserts) track in weather models.
- Expect near normal temperatures Thursday and Friday in the wake of a weak cold front. Cold front will arrive tonight and bring a chance of showers and storms to portions of the area. Slightly cooler and drier air mass will settle in behind the front, allowing temperatures behind the front across the Big Country to drop into the 50s tonight.
Temperatures will be warm today, with highs reaching the lower to mid 80s inland, and near 80 along the immediate coast.
Cold temperatures will stick around through Halloween morning as a low pressure system remains over the region. Behind the most recent trough a drier northwest flow has set up over northern Arizona. As a result, look for mainly clear skies, generally light winds and warmer daytime temperatures through Friday. As a result, below freezing temperatures can once again be expected, mainly at elevations above 5000 feet both Thursday and Friday morning. Look for some strengthening of south to southwest winds on Friday as a trough begins to approach Arizona.
Additionally, a cold front, associated with a trough passing over the Upper Midwest, will work its way through central Texas, stalling to the north of South Texas. Temperatures will continue to remain well above normal degrees with overnight lows ranging in the low to mid 70s and highs reaching into the low to mid 90s across inland Deep South Texas and upper 80s immediately west of the Laguna Madre.
For this spooky day, a cold front is making its way across central Illinois this morning, bringing welcome rain and some thunder. The cold front is actually displaced behind the precipitation and will finish moving through by early afternoon. They will begin to lessen as the cold front moves further away, since the pressure gradient will weaken as well. Behind the cold front, temperatures will become more seasonable. Highs will be in the 60s today, dropping cooler tomorrow.
154 AM CDT Thu Oct 31 2024 - A cold front and associated showers and storms will continue to move east and out of the area early this morning. - Cooler conditions will occur today and tonight as highs warm into the 60s and lows drop into the middle 30s to low 40s. A cold front and line of storms continues to move east across the area early this morning. A cooler air mass will move into the region today with highs warming into the 60s. Lows will drop into the middle 30s to the lower 40s tonight into Friday morning with the coolest readings occurring across central and south central Missouri. Highs will warm into the middle 60s to the lower 70s on Friday with the warmest readings across southeastern Kansas and far southwestern Missouri.
This may limit the widespread development of low clouds, especially across areas where the higher clouds are more prevalent. Clouds ahead of the front will increase across the far north CWA tonight and this should keep the lower clouds at bay for the most part.
Rua (Tonight through Friday night) A cold front an upper trough has pushed into the plains with deep moisture being pulled north from the gulf across the local area. Through tonight and into Thursday moisture will continue to advect across the local region ahead of the upper trough and advancing cold front. Modest lift will begin to increase early Thursday with showers and storms moving inland early ahead of the trough. However, as the upper trough progresses, it is anticipated to lift northeast and weaken.
350 AM EDT Thu Oct 31 2024 High pressure will maintain dry and warm weather most of today. A band of showers is expected late today and tonight with a crossing cold front.
(Today) A line of storms are ongoing this morning along and ahead of a cold front in SE OK and NW AR. The front and associated storms will likely push through the remainder of the CWA by 12z this morning with post-frontal high pressure filling in behind it. High temperatures today will be much cooler than the last several days.
(Today through Friday) Key Messages: - Coastal Flood Advisory extended through Thursday night A cold front will continue to drop southwards into central Texas today before eventually stalling.
A cold front will slowly move the Mid-South starting this afternoon and continuing through Friday evening.
activity ongoing along/ahead of a cold front pushing into the state.
High temperatures on Thursday will not warm up much above freezing (upper 30s to maybe low 40s). Be sure to bundle up your little trick-or- treaters! (2) Given the fresh snow pack and slight melting today as we warm up to around freezing with a still (relatively) strong sun angle, basin fog is possible overnight into Thursday morning.
There is a concern for showers and storms to bring down some of the higher gusts aloft. The bad news is that with the cooler temperature profile aloft it will still be a bit windy with gusts to 40 mph possible across much of the area and higher gusts along the lakeshore. This is also the time where we see moisture wrap back around the low with northwest winds resulting in some lake effect rain showers impacting the lakeshore and M-10 corridor.
403 AM EDT Thu Oct 31 2024 High pressure will bring unseasonably warm and mostly dry weather through Friday.
(Today and tonight) High pressure north of Bermuda will continue to produce easterly flow across the area. Highs will be in the middle 80s with lows in the lower 60s.
345 AM EDT Thu Oct 31 2024 Unseasonably warm, Bermuda high pressure will extend across the Carolinas until a cold front moves through the region Friday night. Mild high pressure will follow and build across the middle Atlantic through the weekend.
(Today and tonight) A much quieter day is expected today for the South Plains in the wake of a cold front early this morning. A short wave trough moving across the Intermountain West will induce surface cyclogenesis and pressure troughing in lee of the Rockies today. The ridge will then slide to the east in the afternoon allowing winds to swing back around to the southeast. Temperatures will be significantly cooler today under easterly upslope flow although still only close to average for Halloween.
- The region will dry out from west to east this afternoon and evening as a cold front pushes through the area. As the cold front passes tonight, winds will become northerly and relax to 5-10 kts. High temperatures today will reach the lower to middle 70s, falling quickly into the 40s and 50s by late tonight as surface cold front pushes though the region. Temperatures overnight will fall into the upper 30s along I-64 to the lower 50s along the KY/TN borders.
(Today through Friday) Generally benign weather conditions will prevail across South Florida today as mid-level ridging and an expansive area of high pressure sits over the southeastern US. High temperatures will reach the low to mid 80s each day, with overnight lows in the upper 60s for the lake region, and the low to mid 70s over the Gulf and East Coasts.
Long lived high pressure systems often result in persistence being the name of the game. The high pressure system over the western Atlantic weakened to 1031 mb last night and model ensembles indicate that trend will continue. The magnitude of the next high pressure system remains to be seen, and model ensembles show a shift in the mean layer winds towards southeasterly, which would result in more moisture, mid week. From synopsis, the high pressure system over the North Atlantic continues to weaken.
An area of high pressure is pushing into our region today and through tonight. Thursday morning a low pressure moves to the southeast of North Dakota giving us a slight chance of a dusting of snow in the furthest eastern counties for West central Minnesota. Tonight into Thursday: A high pressure system will remain in place tonight to give us clear skies and colder temperature. Thursday morning, a low pressure system works its way to the southeast of our CWA. Friday and the weekend: With the low pressure system entering the Great Lakes Region and another low pressure entering the West Coast to create an amplified ridge over the Northern Plains.
-Brisk west to northwest wind today with much cooler highs.
243 AM MDT Thu Oct 31 2024 - Temperatures have dropped below freezing for just about the entire CWA.
533 AM MDT Thu Oct 31 2024 KEY MESSAGES: - Near normal temperatures will generally persist through this weekend, with overnight lows occasionally dropping below freezing. WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: The slowly-moving, slowly evolving flow aloft, through most of this week, shows signs of multiple blocking low centers and high centers. The blocking pattern begins to give way to a more progressive flow by later this weekend.
611 AM CDT Thu Oct 31 2024 (Today and tonight) A much quieter day is expected today for the South Plains in the wake of a cold front early this morning. A short wave trough moving across the Intermountain West will induce surface cyclogenesis and pressure troughing in lee of the Rockies today. The ridge will then slide to the east in the afternoon allowing winds to swing back around to the southeast. Temperatures will be significantly cooler today under easterly upslope flow although still only close to average for Halloween.
(Now through Friday night) An upper ridge which extends from the Gulf to off the East Coast gradually becomes oriented essentially east-west from the northern Gulf to across the Florida peninsula. Lows tonight range from the lower 60s inland to around 70 at the immediate coast, then lows Friday night range from the upper 50s inland to the upper 60s at the coast.
Quiet and slightly cooler than normal temperatures are on tap for the region today and tomorrow.
641 AM CDT Thu Oct 31 2024 - Precipitation chances continue today, ending southwest to northeast throughout the day with cooler temperatures and windy conditions.
628 AM CDT Thu Oct 31 2024 A cold front will slowly move the Mid-South starting this afternoon and continuing through Friday evening.
707 AM EDT Thu Oct 31 2024 (Today through Friday) Generally benign weather conditions will prevail across South Florida today as mid-level ridging and an expansive area of high pressure sits over the southeastern US. High temperatures will reach the low to mid 80s each day, with overnight lows in the upper 60s for the lake region, and the low to mid 70s over the Gulf and East Coasts.
957 AM EDT Thu Oct 31 2024 High pressure will maintain dry and warm weather most of today. A band of showers is expected late today and tonight with a crossing cold front.
403 AM CDT Thu Oct 31 2024 - Cooler, more seasonal temperatures are expected through the period.
- Expect near normal temperatures today and Friday in the wake of a weak cold front. (Today and tonight) Early this morning, a surface cold front was moving south across southern portions of the forecast area. For the rest of the day, expect mostly sunny skies and cooler temperatures, with afternoon highs ranging from the low to mid 70s across the Big Country, to the lower 80s along the I-10 corridor.
700 AM EDT Thu Oct 31 2024 Gusty winds will occur ahead of a cold front that will move through the area late today into the evening. High pressure will bring a return to dry conditions along with cooler temperatures for the end of the week. Cold front pushing into the Mississippi Valley early this morning will continue eastward and get into the western part of the forecast area by the end of the day. Mixing into even a portion of this low level jet will result in rather gusty winds. The highest winds are expected from mid morning into the early afternoon with a slight decrease in gust magnitude mid to late afternoon. Cold front will continue to move through the forecast area during the evening. High pressure will build in for Friday.
From synopsis, the high pressure system over the North Atlantic continues to weaken.
A second trough moves through starting Sat afternoon and peaking Sat night and Sun morning. This one has more moisture and temperatures behind this trough will be cooler once it passes. In heavily populated areas, the afternoon highs still get into the lower to middle 40s, so there should be a lot of nighttime snow melting during the afternoon. Increasing clouds and precipitation will continue to build in west to east throughout the day today as a cold front passes over eastern Idaho. Conditions will trend more VFR late this afternoon and evening as drier conditions and clearer skies build in behind the now exiting cold front.