Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
At the surface, the region will be under high pressure today and tonight. Snowfall on the north/northeast side of the low will affect the CWA, with the probability of accumulating snow ranging from around 15 percent across the far eastern CWA, to around 85 percent across the southwestern CWA. Where the higher POPs are, snow accumulations of one to three inches look likely at this time. Thursday night precipitation is expected to have ended and we transition to a drier and warmer period.
554 AM CST Wed Jan 17 2024 * A brief return above freezing for many areas today.
958 AM EST Wed Jan 17 2024 Arctic high pressure will build across and offshore the Southeast through Thursday. While clear and relatively calm conditions are expected tonight, we should see a bit warmer overnight lows compared to this morning as low-level thicknesses moderate a bit. Expecting lows to dip into the lower 20s most locations (mid to upper teens are likely in our traditionally cooler spots).
This will increase moisture and warm air advection, warming highs today in the upper 40s over the Victoria Crossroads to the lower 50s south.
A ridge of high pressure will allow temperatures to increase through the week into the weekend.
612 AM EST Wed Jan 17 2024 High pressure over the area with below average temperatures today into tonight.
After a near record cold start, temperatures will top out warmer today and not be as cold tonight. This high marked the center of the arctic airmass that was resulting in temperatures that ranged from the single digits to the teens currently. These features will allow for near full insolation today, allowing temperatures to recover above freezing with the possible exception of our northwest most zones where heating will go into melting the remaining wintry precipitation.
339 AM PST Wed Jan 17 2024 A weakening cold front from a low pressure system moving inland to the north will bring a slight chance for light rain this evening, mainly for the San Diego County coast and valleys.
(Today through Thursday Night) High pressure will drift eastward today, resulting in the return of onshore flow and WAA.
Lows across the area this morning were in the low teens and single digits. Heading into tonight we fall back into the freeze but not nearly as cold as last night and the lows in the 20s F will be 10-15 degrees warmer than what we saw this morning. This will be maximized aloft as the relatively warmer air to the south rises isentropically over the shallow remnant arctic airmass. There continues to be some chance for some isolated light drizzle or rain to fall for an hour or so across the far northern portions of the area while temperatures are near freezing. The relatively warm droplets coupled with steadily increasing temperatures and the latent warming effect of freezing suggests that any trace ice accumulation would be on elevated, perhaps mostly metal, surfaces that cool sufficiently in the first part of tonight.
High-Res Ensemble places between a 50 to 70 percent chance of having visibility drop below one mile after 0400 PST along the Highway 99 corridor north of Kern County where a majority of todayâs precipitation will fall.
505 AM CST Wed Jan 17 2024 - Warmer today with afternoon highs ranging from the mid 20s to the mid 30s.
721 AM EST Wed Jan 17 2024 Cool high pressure will build in through Thursday.
We'll dip back into the teens tonight and some refreezing will once again be possible. Initially, models are pointing to warm air aloft allowing for rainfall, but in places where temperatures hover around freezing (which right now is mainly northwest Middle TN) precip may refreeze as it hits the ground.
Ridge level winds are peaking early this morning at time of writing, with many mountain locations reporting gusts in the 60-80 mph range. Ridge and wind-prone area winds will begin to taper after around 5 AM, though valleys will continue on the upward trend through early this afternoon with gusts maxing out at 20-30 mph. Conditions for the remainder of the work week will remain dry and mild as a ridge redevelops over our region.
High pressure maintains fair but cold weather through tonight.
408 AM EST Wed Jan 17 2024 Cool high pressure will build in through Thursday.
516 AM CST Wed Jan 17 2024 (Today) Early morning temperatures have dropped into the lower teens to -4 degrees across the area, with wind chills below 0 degrees in several locations. Broad ridging at 850mb and southwesterly flow aloft will help temperatures rise a few degrees warmer this afternoon, with highs in the upper 20s/lower 30s north of the TN River and sites south of the river having a better chance of making it above freezing briefly.
For reference, the average high this time of year for Medford, Grants Pass and Ashland is the upper 40s with an average high in the low 50s for mid-/late January in Roseburg. For lows, there is generally a 60% to 80% probability for freezing temperatures for east side locations as the forecast favors lows between 30 to 35 degrees. After this system, there will be a break with ridging taking place.
Temperatures will moderate as we emerge on the warm side of the front but portions of inland Southwest Florida will still fall into the 50s tonight because the warmer air will not make it until later in the overnight to morning hours. Temperatures on Thursday afternoon will be warmer with widespread upper 70s to lower 80s but the additional cloud cover and convection may help keep things from warming up much more than that.
1118 AM CST Wed Jan 17 2024 * A brief return above freezing for many areas today.
(The rest of today ) A breezy and warmer day is underway today, as afternoon temperatures will climb above freezing for the first time since last week.
1133 AM CST Wed Jan 17 2024 - Temperatures may finally reach or exceed the freezing mark, if not today, then Thursday.
(Through tonight ) Just about all locations have warmed above freezing as of 2 PM, with a few holdouts in the Arkansas River valley and over the relatively deeper snowpack in far northeast OK and northwest AR.
1139 AM CST Wed Jan 17 2024 Arctic high pressure is situated over the Lower MS Valley this morning. A few places will hit the freezing mark across north MS but most locations will remain below the freezing mark this afternoon as snow cover retards warming. Moisture overrunning the slowly retreating arctic airmass will result in some light mixed precipitation with a swath of light freezing rain likely across much of the Mid-South. Another system is expected to move through on Thursday, bringing a mix of snow, rain, and freezing rain to the Mid-South.
(This evening through Thursday Night) After finally climbing above freezing this afternoon, temperatures will quickly drop after sunset this evening, reaching the mid 20s to near 30 degrees by midnight. However, increasing cloud cover and southerly winds will help boost temperatures several degrees through the remainder of the night, with temperatures ranging from near or just below freezing north and east to the upper 30s and lower 40s south and west by daybreak. If any precip does manage to develop, temperatures look to be sufficiently above freezing to mitigate any concern for wintry weather.
(This evening through Thursday) Temperatures finally climbed above freezing this afternoon after almost 90 consecutive hours of below freezing temperatures at Abilene and 86 hours at San Angelo. Lows tonight will be much warmer than previous nights, but below freezing temperatures are still expected across the northwest Hill Country and northern Edwards Plateau where winds will be light. Elsewhere, lows will drop off into the lower to mid 30s. Temperatures will a bit cooler in the Big Country- upper 50s to mid 60s.
(This evening through Thursday night) Weather conditions will be cold tonight again (but warmer than the last few evenings), and dry.
257 PM EST Wed Jan 17 2024 High pressure dominating the region will keep below average temperatures in place through tonight.
1001 AM EST Wed Jan 17 2024 Cool high pressure will build in through Thursday.
236 PM EST Wed Jan 17 2024 High pressure into Thursday. As temperatures have been climbing today, wind chills have risen above warning criteria in the higher elevations of the mountains. A high pressure system will build across the area providing dry weather tonight into Thursday morning.
Lastly, temperatures are holding steady in the upper 60s with dew points in the lower to mid 60s. This means that the low clouds that plague us now will continue to be a nuisance for the remainder of the day and possibly well into Thursday as well. However, given the low ceilings and how saturated it is within the cloud layer, cannot rule out some drizzle or brief light shower for the remainder of the day. High pressure moving in behind the front will maintain moderate to occasionally fresh breezes for most of the Florida Keys waters through the afternoon and into the evening.
Freezing rain concerns are winding down and should end by Wednesday morning at latest.
1257 PM EST Wed Jan 17 2024 Cool high pressure will build in through Thursday.
(This evening through Thursday night) For all those who've been anxiously waiting, the entire Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles are finally above freezing, Woohoo! After several cold days, warmer air has returned and temperatures are beginning to climb well into the 40s and 50s. By the end of peak heating this afternoon, some spots will even reach the low to mid 60s! A weak front will sneak through the Panhandles tonight, bringing some clouds and a slight northwest breeze, but will have very little impact on temps. As early as Thursday evening, a substantially stronger cold front will slide southward, bringing immediately noticeable changes as it arrives.
1003 AM EST Wed Jan 17 2024 A significantly cooler and drier airmass continues filtering into the region. Observations from across West Central Florida show the coldest temperatures this morning to have fallen into the low 30s across the northern Nature Coast. A cold front is exiting south of the region attm and will become stationary across the Florida Straits later today. Much cooler today with highs in the lower 50s north, mid to upper 50s central, and lower to mid 60s south. On Thursday, the frontal boundary across the Florida Straits will begin to lift back to the north as a warm front with an increasing chance of showers mainly south of I-4 into Thursday night.
1123 AM CST Wed Jan 17 2024 (The rest of today ) A breezy and warmer day is underway today, as afternoon temperatures will climb above freezing for the first time since last week.
Overnight, a developing surface system and upper trough are going to approach Middle Tennessee from the west. So freezing rain is likely to occur tomorrow over much of Middle Tennessee during the day, and into the evening along the Cumberland Plateau. Forecast soundings do point strongly to a freezing rain profile. 01" of freezing rain is all we need to re-aggravate our travel difficulties. The greatest ice accumulations will occur along the Highland Rim and over to the Clarksville/Waverly areas, where accumulations of 0.
1151 AM CST Wed Jan 17 2024 Arctic high pressure is situated over the Lower MS Valley this morning. A few places will hit the freezing mark across north MS but most locations will remain below the freezing mark this afternoon as snow cover retards warming. Moisture overrunning the slowly retreating arctic airmass will result in some light mixed precipitation with a swath of light freezing rain likely across much of the Mid-South. Another system is expected to move through on Thursday, bringing a mix of snow, rain, and freezing rain to the Mid-South.
This will be the last precipitation chance for the next few days as a ridge builds back in.
129 PM CST Wed Jan 17 2024 - Another day above freezing on Thursday.
A quick moving trough will pass to the east of the area this evening.
927 AM PST Wed Jan 17 2024 Cooler, cloudier, and windier weather today with the potential for some isolated light showers.
- Temperatures moderate above freezing Wednesday at many locations.
1052 AM EST Wed Jan 17 2024 High pressure maintains fair but cold weather through tonight.
123 PM MST Wed Jan 17 2024 119 PM MST Wed Jan 17 2024 - Clipper brings shot of snow/blowing snow/arctic air - Upper ridge dominates last half of forecast with much warmer temperatures 19z surface analysis had weak low over southeast WY with arctic boundary over the CWA.
Winds will diminish overnight as the low weakens. Even warmer temperatures are expected Thursday with more of a downsloping component as surface winds will turn westerly.
This is thanks to the recent cold front that passed through overnight and which has now settled across the Straits of Florida. High pressure is quickly transiting eastward across the Southeast U. Thereafter, it will lift back north as a warm front. Unlike the last few warm fronts that we have had, this one will lift northward with little fanfare.
Pacific moisture is increasing ahead of the trough, with integrated vapor transport values reaching into the 90th percentile.
316 PM EST Wed Jan 17 2024 High pressure maintains fair but cold weather through tonight.
317 PM EST Wed Jan 17 2024 High pressure will build well to our south tonight into Thursday.
Further southwest and into Cullman county, temperatures could climb to around freezing. Not expecting temperatures to climb above freezing in most locations.
There is one more night of this cooler, drier weather before conditions warm back up again with a warm front lifting northward. As the warm front lifts north, a period of gloomier weather returns with increasing rain chances and overall muggier conditions.
1113 AM CST Wed Jan 17 2024 - Warmer today with afternoon highs ranging from the mid 20s to the mid 30s.
This brings all but the N tier of counties above freezing.
136 PM PST Wed Jan 17 2024 Cooler and cloudier weather today with the potential for drizzle or isolated light showers near the coast, locally in the valleys and mountain slopes.
Moisture will gradually increase in the low levels overnight due to the veering onshore winds, and some mid to low level clouds are forecast to develop towards the early morning hours. (From previous discussion) Chilly temperatures are forecast across the north again tonight with values ranging the low to mid 40s along and north of the I-4 corridor. Warmer to the south of I-4 in the upper 40s to mid 50s.
541 PM CST Wed Jan 17 2024 (This evening through Thursday night) For all those who've been anxiously waiting, the entire Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles are finally above freezing, Woohoo! After several cold days, warmer air has returned and temperatures are beginning to climb well into the 40s and 50s. By the end of peak heating this afternoon, some spots will even reach the low to mid 60s! A weak front will sneak through the Panhandles tonight, bringing some clouds and a slight northwest breeze, but will have very little impact on temps. As early as Thursday evening, a substantially stronger cold front will slide southward, bringing immediately noticeable changes as it arrives.
520 PM CST Wed Jan 17 2024 (Through tonight ) Just about all locations have warmed above freezing as of 2 PM, with a few holdouts in the Arkansas River valley and over the relatively deeper snowpack in far northeast OK and northwest AR.
638 PM CST Wed Jan 17 2024 (This evening through Thursday Night) After finally climbing above freezing this afternoon, temperatures will quickly drop after sunset this evening, reaching the mid 20s to near 30 degrees by midnight. However, increasing cloud cover and southerly winds will help boost temperatures several degrees through the remainder of the night, with temperatures ranging from near or just below freezing north and east to the upper 30s and lower 40s south and west by daybreak. If any precip does manage to develop, temperatures look to be sufficiently above freezing to mitigate any concern for wintry weather.
702 PM EST Wed Jan 17 2024 High pressure into Thursday. As temperatures have been climbing today, wind chills have risen above warning criteria in the higher elevations of the mountains. A high pressure system will build across the area providing dry weather tonight into Thursday morning.
As we stay under the forever-spinning upper level low near Hudson Bay, the arctic air mass is bringing below normal temperatures and wind chills consistently below zero.
Temperatures remain cold through tonight, with lows in the low to mid 20s inland and upper 20s to low 30s near the coast.
Although we'll see a shift to northerly winds overnight, there'll be a lag in the cooler airmass arrival until late Thursday night.
A ridge of high pressure will allow temperatures to increase through the week into the weekend. Temperatures will remain above-average for the remainder of the work week heading into the weekend thanks to the return of our southeastern Pacific ridge.
651 PM EST Wed Jan 17 2024 High pressure will build to our south tonight into Thursday.
501 PM CST Wed Jan 17 2024 (This evening through Thursday) Temperatures finally climbed above freezing this afternoon after almost 90 consecutive hours of below freezing temperatures at Abilene and 86 hours at San Angelo. Lows tonight will be much warmer than previous nights, but below freezing temperatures are still expected across the northwest Hill Country and northern Edwards Plateau where winds will be light. Elsewhere, lows will drop off into the lower to mid 30s. Temperatures will a bit cooler in the Big Country- upper 50s to mid 60s.
An upper level system and surface cold front will bring a chance of rain on Thursday afternoon. Given the lower confidence, have included MVFR cigs beginning at 22Z at both terminals. Temperatures remain cold through tonight, with lows in the low to mid 20s inland and upper 20s to low 30s near the coast.
--Higher chances (50-90%) for snow Thursday, with the highest accumulations (2-4") central.
The second upper system will contribute to a cold front that is expected to move across the CWA Thursday night.
707 PM EST Wed Jan 17 2024 High pressure dominating the region will keep below average temperatures in place through tonight.
624 PM EST Wed Jan 17 2024 High pressure dominating the region will keep below average temperatures in place through tonight.
415 PM MST Wed Jan 17 2024 119 PM MST Wed Jan 17 2024 - Clipper brings shot of snow/blowing snow/arctic air - Upper ridge dominates last half of forecast with much warmer temperatures 19z surface analysis had weak low over southeast WY with arctic boundary over the CWA.
614 PM CST Wed Jan 17 2024 (This evening through Thursday night) Weather conditions will be cold tonight again (but warmer than the last few evenings), and dry.
Tomorrow, another warm front lifts north with increasing clouds and showers possible, specially during the afternoon across SW FL. There is one more night of this cooler, drier weather before conditions warm back up again with a warm front lifting northward. As the warm front lifts north, a period of gloomier weather returns with increasing rain chances and overall muggier conditions.
505 PM CST Wed Jan 17 2024 - Another day above freezing on Thursday.
(Today and tonight) Temperatures will be much warmer today across most of our area, and to a lesser extent in the northeastern Big Country. Southwest winds early this morning will veer to the west today, but a weak cold front will move south into the Big Country by mid-to-late morning and then move little this afternoon. As an upper ridge moves east across the western CONUS, an upper trough will deepen over the Midwest. This will drive a much stronger cold front south across our area tonight.
(Today) A s/wv trof will slide across the region this morning without much fan fare, as the best waa/isentropic lift will be focused off to our east at the nose of a strongly veered LLJ. This will be short-lived of course with a strong cold front approaching from the north.
Enjoy the warmth while it lasts as our next cold front is set to push into the region and bring us right back to Winter. Unfortunately, dry air and subsidence from upper level ridging dominates and the short term remains bone-dry.
(Thursday through Friday) Upper-air analysis from this morning features near zonal flow across our region with a ridge developing across the southwest CONUS. This stationary front will actually push towards our area later this morning as a warm front, which will significantly help our afternoon high temperatures today. Aforementioned low will track east across central Oklahoma through the day with a cold front trailing southwest behind it. By later this evening, the cold front will have almost pushed through the entire area, ushering in some cooler air after a seasonable day. Highs on Friday will range from around 30 degrees across our far northern zones to the mid 40s across our southern zones while lows tonight will range from the mid teens across our far northern zones to the lower 30s across our southern zones.
A quick moving trough will pass to the east of the area this evening. A ridge will build across northern Arizona for Thursday and Friday. This should keep overnight temperatures on the warmer side for most locations. A ridge will start to build in for Thursday and we will start to temperatures warm in the west to northwest flow. As the ridge moves overhead on Friday, the flow will turn more to the southwest. The next trough will start to approach from the west late Friday.
1050 PM CST Wed Jan 17 2024 - Another day above freezing on Thursday.
1027 PM CST Wed Jan 17 2024 (This evening through Thursday night) For all those who've been anxiously waiting, the entire Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles are finally above freezing, Woohoo! After several cold days, warmer air has returned and temperatures are beginning to climb well into the 40s and 50s. By the end of peak heating this afternoon, some spots will even reach the low to mid 60s! A weak front will sneak through the Panhandles tonight, bringing some clouds and a slight northwest breeze, but will have very little impact on temps. As early as Thursday evening, a substantially stronger cold front will slide southward, bringing immediately noticeable changes as it arrives.
The thinking already was that the lows would likely occur around midnight and that still appears to be the case for much of the region it's just that temperatures cooled far faster than what was expected and many locations have gotten below freezing and even starting to test the mid 20s. /CAB/ (This evening through Thursday night) Weather conditions will be cold tonight again (but warmer than the last few evenings), and dry. Highs tomorrow are in the mid 60s and lows above freezing Thursday night, so there's no concern for winter weather at all.
Some guidance says that this Low will close itself off, but not everyone is on board with that idea. Afterwards, a brief period of ridging is followed by mainly zonal flow in the guidance.
Dry and warmer for Thursday and Friday with locally breezy east winds in the mountains and foothills.
Latest 00Z NAM/HRRR develops some very light wintry precip just east of CWA late tonight with wave, which would likely fall as patchy freezing drizzle/freezing rain.
Dew points will be rising as well in the couple or few hours before daybreak with warmer air arriving over the cold ground bringing advection fog in from the SW. After highs today well above freezing, most places saw some improvement, but our wet bridges and overpasses, many still sporting sleet, will be refreezing in the coming hours and will remain problematic; especially areas in our north and east with clear skies the longest during the predawn hours. We could possibly even see some freezing fog if skies keep clear anywhere with the warmer air arriving.
A strong cold front plows south later this evening ahead of 3-hr pressure rises ranging anywhere from 8mb (HRRR and NAM) to as great as 13 mb (GFS).
The good news is that weak WAA gets temperatures to rise above freezing by lunchtime and afternoon highs in the upper 30s. The evening run of the HREF shows mean ensemble soundings remaining above freezing below cloud level resulting in only rain with this system. There is some potential that it will hold temperatures just cold enough for some light freezing rain.