Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
732 PM EDT Thu May 15 2025 Warmer temperatures will be observed through the end of the week. Cooler temperatures and drier weather will follow heading into the weekend. This time, a warm front will initially be the focus of the forcing, starting across the Tri-State during the evening and lifting through the rest of the CWA just after midnight. Closed low will track across the Great Lakes to start the period which will push a cold front through the area.
(This evening through Friday) A weak cold frontal boundary has moved through most of the area, bringing north winds around 10 knots as far south as our Interstate 10 corridor this afternoon. Temperatures have also been kept 5 to 10 degrees cooler than yesterday on average. Behind the weak cold front, we can expect lows to be a few degrees cooler on average, ranging from the lower 60s north of Interstate 10, to the lower 70s for our southeastern counties. These westerly downsloping winds, although contending with some upper level clouds, will allow for warmer temperatures to return tomorrow, with highs in the mid to upper 90s in most areas, and a few triple digit highs possible in the Mason and Kimble County areas.
- Warm temperatures through Friday will give way to cooler and drier conditions this weekend. The low level jet also increases this evening with 0-3 km storm-related helicity pushing 250-300 m2/s2 for a tornado threat. Much higher confidence in strong to severe storms breaking through the cap and tracking east through northern zones as weak height falls/cooling aloft clips the lower Great Lakes. Dry and cooler weather will filter in behind Friday night's wave in time for the weekend, with Saturday also breezy. Rain chances eventually return toward the middle of as the next western CONUS upper trough slows or cut-off over the Midwest.
Upper low continues to pinwheel east on Sat with just a low chance of a few sprinkles in our N/NE zones.
238 AM EDT Fri May 16 2025 A weak pattern with low pressure offshore will support humid conditions and hit and miss showers this afternoon and evening.
(Today and tonight) Upper-level ridging builds in today with high pressure nosing in over the Gulf from the western Atlantic.
(Today through Saturday) High pressure over the Gulf continues to nudge eastward keeping a deep layer dry air mass over the Florida peninsula. Temperatures will continue on a slow upward trend with highs reaching the low-to-mid 90s across interior South Florida and upper 80s along the coasts on Friday. Slightly warmer conditions on Saturday with higher chances that even the coastal areas may enter the low 90s. Overnight lows will remain in the 70s along the coasts with slightly cooler conditions in the interior falling into the mid- 60s.
(Today through Saturday Night) An upper level high will reside over the central Gulf through the short term period. At the surface, high pressure will be in control centered over the eastern Gulf allowing for a more moderate low level flow across the region.
232 AM EDT Fri May 16 2025 Warmer temperatures will be observed through the end of the week. Cooler temperatures and drier weather will follow heading into the weekend. This time, a warm front will initially be the focus of the forcing, starting across the Tri-State during the evening and lifting through the rest of the CWA just after midnight. Closed low will track across the Great Lakes to start the period which will push a cold front through the area.
Light precipitation (few hundredths at best) can be expected mainly north of the OR/CA border and across the higher terrain through tonight. We'll remain under zonal flow Friday with drier conditions and seasonable temperatures that will be a few degrees warmer compared to today. Another trough is expected to move into the region Friday night through Saturday. Expect breezy winds again Friday afternoon and evening as the trough approaches the region and even more so on Saturday as the trough moves overhead and enhances shower activity. This upper trough moves east of the region late Saturday, with precipitation chances diminishing for most of the area aside from along the coast and Cascades north of Crater Lake.
We will continue our hot and dry weather into the start of the weekend with high pressure firmly in control.
At the same time, an upper level ridge is moving in from the west. Temperatures are stubbornly holding near 80 degrees this hour with dew points in the lower 70s. The aforementioned upper level ridge will continue to slowly trek eastward across the Gulf.
(Tonight through Saturday Night) A surface and upper ridge are situated to our east, giving us a southwest flow aloft while at the surface, a trough of low pressure is situated to our immediate north and west.
The 500mb subtropical ridge will continue to bring dry and hot summer-like conditions over Deep South Texas through the period.
Delving into clusters of ensemble solutions does reveal some uncertainty in the evolution of the system as the two waves interact; ensemble members are split on whether the system will morph into a closed low overhead late Saturday through Saturday night or if it will remain a weaker open wave trough. Regardless, have included an area-wide slight chance (15-24% probability) to chance (25-35% probability) mention of thunder in the forecast through the day Saturday as the low/trough moves overhead.
Meanwhile, a weak cold front will be located south of the Big Country. Across the Big Country, highs will be in the low to mid 90s, where slightly cooler temperatures are forecast behind the weak cold front. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are forecast to develop south of the cold front and east of the dryline late this afternoon and evening.
1) Gusty winds over the weekend resulting in a locally elevated fire danger 2) Increased odds for above normal temperatures and widespread Weather Pattern Overview: Broad, weakly cyclonic flow lingers over the SW Conus as a closed, occluded low pressure system lifts into the Upper Midwest. The weakness left in the midtropospheric flow over the forecast area from this exiting system will quickly be filled over the weekend by a series of Pacific negative height anomalies intensifying into an amplified longwave western trough. The timing and juxtaposition of height falls and jet core carving out the trough base will support very gusty winds throughout the weekend, but particularly Saturday afternoon/evening across SE California where parameters align nearly optimally.
High pressure continues quiet weather through the midweek. Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Occluded front, tied to deep low pressure spinning across the northern Plains, sweeping rapidly east across the area early this morning. Upstream low pressure and secondary cold front make a run at our area tonight, drumming up another round of showers and perhaps some embedded thunderstorms in the process. Expecting highs well up into the 80s across interior northern lower Michigan, with reading just a smidge cooler for areas north of the big bridge and near those big waters. Slug of deeper moisture arrives tonight ahead of that secondary cold front and vort max wrapping around parent upstream low pressure.
- Lows tonight will be near freezing along the ND and parts of the Canadian border.
Winds will diminish in the evening as the upper level low continues to move east. A weak trof will move in from the west Saturday, forcing is fairly weak, thus anticipate any thunderstorm development on Saturday evening and overnight to be isolated.
- Much cooler temperatures with highs dropping into the 40s and 50s for the weekend.
- Showers continue on Friday with much cooler temperatures. Same thoughts remain valid from previous discussion with respect to lingering light rain, gusty winds, and cooler temperatures. Still forecasting gusty north- northwest winds 30-50 mph behind the departing low over eastern ND and Red River Valley, along with much cooler temperatures compared to recent days. Heading into Friday, look for continuing rainfall and much cooler temperatures.
With the low level forcing mechanism stalled to the north, and a strong mid- level capping inversion in place, any development will be very isolated. Dewpoints will be in the low to mid 70s, and overnight lows will dip toward those dewpoints each night.
1242 AM EDT Fri May 16 2025 (This afternoon through Friday) To wrap up the week, an upper-level ridge continues build and push it's way further eastward into the Gulf. Meanwhile, at the surface, a body of high pressure parks over the Florida Peninsula. With deep layer dry air and the building ridge, warm and benign conditions will remain in South Florida through the remainder of the week. Temperatures will continue on an upward trend with highs reaching the low-to-mid 90s across the interior and upper 80s along the coasts this afternoon and Friday. Overnight lows will remain in the 70s along the coasts with slightly cooler conditions in the interior falling into the mid-60s.
1157 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025 - High pressure settled over the region will continue to yield a prolonged period of hot and humid weather. A weak cold front is progged to approach the region Saturday, but will stall across north Louisiana.
- Sub-freezing temperatures are possible in portions of northeastern North Dakota tonight and Saturday morning and a freeze watch is in effect.
Another trough will arrive in the area tonight through Saturday, and will be quite similar to the one experienced earlier this week, though with less precipitation. Expect breezy winds again this afternoon and evening as the trough approaches the region, and even more so on Saturday as the trough moves overhead and enhances shower activity. This upper trough moves east of the region late Saturday, with precipitation chances diminishing for most of the area, aside from some lingering showers along the coast, and along the Cascades north of Crater Lake.
611 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025 (Today through Saturday Night) An upper level high will reside over the central Gulf through the short term period. At the surface, high pressure will be in control centered over the eastern Gulf allowing for a more moderate low level flow across the region.
436 AM PDT Fri May 16 2025 Wind and cooler temps on tap for the weekend as a potent system enters the Great Basin.
705 AM EDT Fri May 16 2025 (Today through Saturday) High pressure over the Gulf continues to nudge eastward keeping a deep layer dry air mass over the Florida peninsula. Temperatures will continue on a slow upward trend with highs reaching the low-to-mid 90s across interior South Florida and upper 80s along the coasts on Friday. Slightly warmer conditions on Saturday with higher chances that even the coastal areas may enter the low 90s. Overnight lows will remain in the 70s along the coasts with slightly cooler conditions in the interior falling into the mid- 60s.
Seasonable temperatures and light winds forecast for today, before cooler and windier conditions return over the weekend.
524 AM MDT Fri May 16 2025 - Today and tomorrow will be warmer and drier, with isolated afternoon showers limited to the higher terrain north of I-70.
Issued by National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 627 AM EDT Fri May 16 2025 (Today and tonight) Upper-level ridging builds in today with high pressure nosing in over the Gulf from the western Atlantic.
Wind and cooler temps on tap for the weekend as a potent system enters the Great Basin.
- Turning much cooler this weekend with highs in the 40s and 50s.
A similar situation will exist for Saturday afternoon as a dryline forms along a Sonora to San Angelo to Abilene to Throckmorton line, with very unstable air with dew points in the lower 70s to the east.
145 PM PDT Fri May 16 2025 Cooler conditions with increased winds and cloud coverage expected over the weekend.
From synopsis, a large, expansive high pressure system parked in the central North Atlantic will dominate the synoptic pattern for the next several days across the Keys coastal waters.
924 AM PDT Fri May 16 2025 Cooler conditions with increased winds and cloud coverage expected over the weekend.
Discussion: The atmosphere is primed for severe storms out ahead of the approaching short wave trough, as HRRR/RAP forecast continue to show MLCAPE this afternoon between 2000 and 2500 J/Kg with EBShear of around 50 to 60+ kts. The highest risk for flooding would likely be across the north given the increased potential for storms there this afternoon.
1225 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025 (Today through Saturday Night) An upper level high will reside over the central Gulf through the short term period. At the surface, high pressure will be in control centered over the eastern Gulf allowing for a more moderate low level flow across the region.
135 PM MDT Fri May 16 2025 KEY MESSAGES: - Lows tonight will be near freezing along the ND and parts of the Canadian border.
Issued by National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 119 PM EDT Fri May 16 2025 (Today and tonight) Upper-level ridging builds in today with high pressure nosing in over the Gulf from the western Atlantic.
245 PM MDT Fri May 16 2025 - Warm and dry conditions will continue through Saturday, with isolated afternoon showers limited to the higher terrain north of I-70.
Steady wind- driven light rain to the south of the low will continue to overspread the entire forecast area through the remainder of the afternoon and evening then gradually taper off overnight. Gusty winds will decrease a bit but still gust as high as 30-40 mph at times this afternoon and again overnight as winds switch to northwesterly following the passage of the low to the north. Saturday will be dry precip-wise but steady cyclonic low-level flow/cold air advection through the day will keep persistent cloud cover in place and will also keep temperatures confined to the lower/middle 50s through the day, and parts of central MN may not make it out of the upper 40s.
258 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025 Tonight and Saturday: Ridging surface and aloft will hang tough to our south while a nearly stacked low tracks east across the Great Lakes region and pushes an associated cold front into our CWA. Convection developing along and ahead of the cold front this afternoon and evening is progged to move into our northwest zones later this evening.
- Near to sub-freezing overnight temperatures across western and north central North Dakota tonight, and all but far southwest North Dakota Saturday night.
pdf Hot and dry conditions remain ongoing this afternoon within stacked high pressure in control across the area. High pressure ridge to our south and east has allowed a modest southwesterly flow to develop, resulting in temperatures soaring above average into the 90s essentially all the way to the coast with a sea breeze pinned just offshore. Temps top out generally in the low to mid 90s under the mostly sunny skies and offshore breezes around 10 mph.
Breezy to windy conditions and cooler temperatures on tap for the weekend as a potent system enters the Great Basin. A warming and drying trend is expected through the upcoming week as high pressure builds into the Pacific Northwest and northern California. Low clouds spreading further inland, the deepening of the marine layer, and an approaching trough of low pressure will result in a slight cool down for Saturday afternoon. Northwesterly winds are expected by Saturday afternoon with gusts 25-35 mph in lower elevations across the region with stronger gusts up to 45 mph in the higher elevations and just along the North Bay coast.
(Tonight through Saturday night) Key Messages: - Moderate to major risk of heat-related impacts - Moderate risk of rip currents through Saturday - Borderline elevated fire weather conditions over Rio Grande Plains Not much to talk about in the short term with a mid-level high pressure centered over the western Gulf and eastern Mexico. Ridging combined with southwesterly flow aloft will help to contribute to warmer temperatures. surface temperatures today are forecast to max out in the low 90s to around 105 across the region will be slightly cooler tomorrow afternoon.
Additionally, freezing levels are quite low near 9000 ft, with 50dBZ to only ~22000 ft needed for 1" hail. Regardless, with strong winds above the surface and low freezing levels will continue to see an isolated severe threat through early this evening. Upper low tracks across the state early, with some weak wrap around energy behind it. However, cooler, cloudy, and breezy conditions are expected with northwest winds gusting to 30-35 mph and in the middle 50s to low 60s.
Will see sunny breaks this afternoon with light showers over the higher terrain. Some storms may produce gusts up to 50 mph as well, but the highest threat of wind gusts will be south of the Snake Basin in Owyhee and southern Twin Falls County.
- Near freezing temperatures are possible in portions of northeastern North Dakota tonight and Saturday morning.
1121 AM MDT Fri May 16 2025 - Today and tomorrow will be warmer and drier, with isolated afternoon showers limited to the higher terrain north of I-70.
A cooldown occurs this weekend, with gusty winds by Saturday afternoon over the mountain ridges and peaks, as well as the Kern County desert.
/NF/ Tonight and Saturday: Ridging surface and aloft will hang tough to our south while a nearly stacked low tracks east across the Great Lakes region and pushes an associated cold front into our CWA. Convection developing along and ahead of the cold front this afternoon and evening is progged to move into our northwest zones later this evening.
Cloud cover is rebuilding this afternoon ahead of an approaching upper trough.
Upper level ridging will maintain hot, near- record breaking temps into this weekend. These south- southeasterly winds allow for temperatures to remain elevated under upper level ridging. High temperatures tomorrow a touch cooler than today.
Dry conditions continue before the arrival of showers with an upper trough late tonight through Saturday.
The western Flank of an elongated Atlantic ridge stretching westward through South Florida and into the Gulf is generating gentle to moderate east to southeasterly breezes on the Keys and surrounding waters this evening. Deep layered ridging remains fully in control with sharp upper ridging stretching northeastward across Florida and the lower to mid level centered over the Florida Peninsula. Conditions are rather warm with temperatures still in the lower 80s with dew points edging upwards into the mid 70s. Deep layered ridging will remain in control of our area overnight. Warm conditions will continue with overnight lows struggling to push into the upper 70s and dew points meandering in the lower to mid 70s.
Recent CAM guidance suggests forcing along a weak cold frontal boundary approaching western parts of the state during the late afternoon and evening hours will be sufficient to overcome the convective inhibition.
434 PM PDT Fri May 16 2025 Breezy to windy conditions and cooler temperatures on tap for the weekend as a potent system enters the Great Basin. A warming and drying trend is expected through the upcoming week as high pressure builds into the Pacific Northwest and northern California. Low clouds spreading further inland, the deepening of the marine layer, and an approaching trough of low pressure will result in a slight cool down for Saturday afternoon. Northwesterly winds are expected by Saturday afternoon with gusts 25-35 mph in lower elevations across the region with stronger gusts up to 45 mph in the higher elevations and just along the North Bay coast.
735 PM EDT Fri May 16 2025 A broad closed low over the Upper Midwest will gradually cross the Great Lakes through the weekend, resulting in several opportunities for showers and thunderstorms through at least Saturday night.
635 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025 (Tonight through Saturday night) Key Messages: - Moderate to major risk of heat-related impacts - Moderate risk of rip currents through Saturday - Borderline elevated fire weather conditions over Rio Grande Plains Not much to talk about in the short term with a mid-level high pressure centered over the western Gulf and eastern Mexico. Ridging combined with southwesterly flow aloft will help to contribute to warmer temperatures. surface temperatures today are forecast to max out in the low 90s to around 105 across the region will be slightly cooler tomorrow afternoon.
This line of storms is associated with a upper trough exiting the Great Lakes. By Midday, storms will likely be all but non-existent as the upper level high takes back control.
The 500mb subtropical ridge centered over the Gulf will continue to bring mainly dry and hot summer-like conditions over Deep South Texas through the weekend.
406 AM EDT Sat May 17 2025 Cold front crosses today. Although a cold front will pass through later in the morning, drier conditions are expected to return to the majority of the area. That being said, an isolated shower or storm could develop over the northern fringes of the CWA as an upper trough pulls moisture back into the area this afternoon and evening. Strong flow aloft is expected to mix down to the surface during the day, with 30 to 40 mph wind gusts possible throughout the lowlands while the higher ridges of the northeast mountains could gust to around 45 mph. Daytime temperatures are expected to range from 70s to low 80s in the lowlands and mid 60s to 70s in the mountains, then temperatures lower into the mid 40s to 50s for tonight.
1049 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025 (Tonight through Saturday night) Key Messages: - Moderate to major risk of heat-related impacts - Moderate risk of rip currents through Saturday - Borderline elevated fire weather conditions over Rio Grande Plains Not much to talk about in the short term with a mid-level high pressure centered over the western Gulf and eastern Mexico. Ridging combined with southwesterly flow aloft will help to contribute to warmer temperatures. surface temperatures today are forecast to max out in the low 90s to around 105 across the region will be slightly cooler tomorrow afternoon.
Rain and clouds will clear out by mid morning as a cold front moves through. In the upper levels, nearly zonal flow will be over the region as a closed low moves through the Great Lakes Region and a ridge is over the Gulf. At the surface, a cold front will be moving through the region this morning. Westerly winds will be a bit gusty especially in SW Virginia and NE Tennessee, closer to the upper low.
(Saturday through Sunday night) Mostly dry weather conditions will continue on Saturday and into Sunday as high pressure ridging extends across the Florida peninsula with a potential for showers forming over southeast Georgia during the weekend, dependent on the positioning of a frontal boundary to the north and if a few weak upper level waves along with moist air extends southward into the forecast area. High temperatures for the weekend will be in the lower to mid 90s with overnight low temperatures dropping down into the mid to upper 60s and lower 70s.
353 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025 - Near freezing temperatures are possible in portions of northeastern North Dakota this morning and a frost advisory is in effect. Additional freezing or near freezing temperatures are possible Saturday night into Sunday morning. Upper low continues to pull through MN and WI, with wrap around light rain and even a few snowflakes lingering across the Red River Valley.
There is uncertainty due to the track of the low pressure system and timing.
As for temperatures, no relief is expected with afternoon highs still well into the low to mid 90s.
- Another potent low pressure system expected for the weekend bringing more rain/storms and cold temperatures Sunday after milder temperatures today. Early morning satellite imagery shows cloud cover quickly streaming in from Oregon and western Idaho in association with a deep upper level trough that will move over the region later today. Southerly flow aloft will allow temperatures to reach the mid/upper 60s in the lower elevations by mid afternoon which should give us enough instability to support thunderstorms potential regionwide.
353 AM EDT Sat May 17 2025 * Breezy, cooler, and less humid weather today.