Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Discussion: We will remain under a broad longwave trough over the eastern CONUS with below normal temperatures persisting for the short term period. Lows tonight will be around 10 degrees below normal, and wind chill values over the higher mountain elevations will dip into the single digits at times. Higher amounts up to 5 inches for the highest elevations.
1140 AM CST Sun Dec 1 2024 (Tonight through Monday night) Key Message: -Increasing rain chances Sunday night through Monday The synoptic pattern over the short term portion of the forecast has South Texas on the Lee side of a trough with quasi-zonal flow aloft. Afternoon highs today will top out in the low to mid 70s and the mid 60s to low 70s tomorrow.
123 PM EST Sun Dec 1 2024 A series of dry cold fronts will move through the area over the next couple of days.
1138 AM CST Sun Dec 1 2024 (Today through Monday) The most recent surface analysis indicated a trough of low pressure along the east coast of Mexico and the Lower Texas Coast. During the period, this trough will ease to the west, while simultaneously, precipitable water values rise. Finally, building seas along the Lower Texas Coast will produce a moderate to high risk of rip currents at the local beaches during the entire period.
/CAB/ (Today through Monday) Upper pattern early this morning is characterized by a large upper trough over the Great Lakes and Appalachians, with a Rex Block along the Pacific Coast. At the surface, high pressure extended from the Tennessee-North Carolina border to the Sabine River. Overall, tonight's temperatures may be a degree or two warmer than the weekend lows, which might be enough to not necessitate an additional Freeze Warning.
1125 AM CST Sun Dec 1 2024 - Areas of fog this morning - Expect colder than average conditions for most of the upcoming week but it should also be dry Early morning surface map showed 1028 mb high centered over eastern NE with weak pressure rises across northeast KS as the high continues to shift southeast.
257 PM CST Sun Dec 1 2024 - Light snow arrives from the northwest this evening, with minor accumulations from 1/4 to 1/2 inch tonight with the highest amounts in western MN.
1139 AM CST Sun Dec 1 2024 - Areas of freezing fog possible this morning, mainly along and west of Highway 183.
High pressure over the area and northwest flow aloft is keeping conditions cool today. As that wave passes to the east of the forecast area, surface winds will shift to the northwest and increase as a 1040mb Canadian high pressure system advances southward into the northern plains. Tomorrow's arctic air mass will reinforce the cold air in place and highs likely top out below freezing for most of the area.
(This evening through Monday Night) Surface ridging will continue to build in, coupled with the NW flow aloft, keeping the region cool and dry.
Incoming upper ridge is bringing warmer air at higher elevations and intensifying the inversion below. More fog and stratus were observed in the valleys this morning than yesterday and we issued a Dense Fog Advisory for the Lower Treasure Valley in Oregon until noon MST. Upper ridge and low-level inversion with air stagnation will remain the main features through the week. With the upper ridge overhead mixing heights will bottom out over the next several days.
1045 AM CST Sun Dec 1 2024 (Today through Monday) A longwave trough still remains situated across the eastern CONUS this morning and we're amidst a west-northwest flow aloft. Afternoon highs in the 50s are forecast today before we dip back into sub-freezing temperatures again tonight.
It may be falling as light snow, but with temperatures just above freezing, we don't expect any accumulation today. We do expect some light accumulations tomorrow afternoon mainly north of I-40 and east of I-24 as an upper trough swings across Middle Tennessee. Despite high pressure building in at the surface, there does appear to be enough moisture and lift aloft to product some light snow with accumulations up to 1/2" possible. Readings tonight will be well below freezing, with some teens possible in a few spots. Temperatures tomorrow will be sluggish and will struggle to get above freezing across our northern zones given the expected cloud cover and northwest wind.
1118 AM CST Sun Dec 1 2024 (Today) Dry frontal boundary had pushed through the forecast area and will result in cooler temperatures across most locations except SE OK where the push of cooler air has slowed.
However, the surface remains bone dry with dew points currently sitting in the teens and low 20s across the lower deserts of AZ and southeast CA.
106 PM MST Sun Dec 1 2024 KEY MESSAGES: - Ridge of high pressure Sunday through at least mid week causing stable conditions. A ridge of high pressure will be building over the Northern Rockies for the next several days allowing for the development of strong valley inversions. The extent of the fog and low stratus is uncertain at this time due to how much mid to high level moisture will be able to stream over the top of this ridge of high pressure.
A high pressure ridge axis is centered over the state today, stretching to the northwest up into Oregon and Washington. A very weak, Pacific trough over the coastline is helping to spread some high level clouds across the area today. This ridge will continue to dominate the pattern into the coming week, with a continuation of mild weather and light winds.
(Tonight) A cold front continues to move through the Tennessee Valley this afternoon into this evening, bringing continued dry conditions and another round of cold air behind it. Lows tonight are forecast to drop into the low to mid 20s. Calm winds and clear skies will contribute to a low chance of patchy, freezing fog.
BB/03 (Now through Monday) Latest water vapor imagery shows a broad upper trough extending over much of the eastern CONUS. At the surface, high pressure continues to settle into the region, with light northerly flow and clear skies. Temperatures have fallen into the low to mid 30s for much of the area and with several more hours before sunrise, expect temps to fall below freezing areawide by daybreak. The aforementioned trough will maintain its hold on the sensible weather pattern through the near term period, with high pressure remaining at the surface.
High pressure over the region will produce dry weather through at least the middle of the coming week, with areas of inland clouds and fog and sunshine elsewhere.
A series of clipper systems around the larger trough feature will continue to reinforce overnight cooling.
(This evening through Monday night) Dry weather is expected to be the theme as we move into December, thanks mostly in part to the continued presence of a strong ridge holding over the Western United States. Otherwise, concerns for the next two days shift more to the possibility of fog forming during the early morning hours as the present flow at the low-levels is allowing for excess moisture to be moved into the Panhandles from the southeast. At this time, confidence is on the lower side of the potential as the moisture needed for it is present, but latest model sounding present a profile that would be more indicative of a low-level cloud deck rather than fog. For now, look for temperatures to start to slowly warm today and tomorrow, but still stay in around the low to mid 50s for highs.
- The coldest day of the forecast will be Monday with highs in the lower 20s to mid 30s.
Over the short term, South Texas will remain on the lee side of an upper-level trough with quasi-zonal flow aloft. Near the surface, a trough of low pressure is currently situated along the northeastern coast of Mexico and the Lower Texas Coast. This trough is expected to gradually shift north and west during the forecast period, coinciding with weak isentropic forcing and an increase in PWATs to near/above normal levels of approximately 1.
1212 PM EST Sun Dec 1 2024 High pressure and a drier airmass will build into the region through tonight.
535 PM CST Sun Dec 1 2024 (Tonight) A cold front continues to move through the Tennessee Valley this afternoon into this evening, bringing continued dry conditions and another round of cold air behind it. Lows tonight are forecast to drop into the low to mid 20s. Calm winds and clear skies will contribute to a low chance of patchy, freezing fog.
413 PM EST Sun Dec 1 2024 High pressure will prevail through the middle of the week. A cold front should push across the area near the end of the week. A weak cold front will attempt to push through the region overnight, however little to no airmass change is expected.
(Tonight) A clear, cold evening across the Tennessee Valley this evening with high pressure at the surface. It's a very good night for radiational cooling and temperatures will drop off into the low to mid 20s in most locations by early Monday morning.
(This evening through Monday) The trough that brought some sprinkles of rain over the North Bay and parts of SF Bay this morning, will continue to move off to the northeast. Behind the upper-level low, a high pressure system will move into our area going into Monday. Temperatures will also trend warmer with this ridging pattern, as values are showing 3-14 degrees higher than normal for this time of year.
607 PM CST Sun Dec 1 2024 (This evening through Monday Night) Surface ridging will continue to build in, coupled with the NW flow aloft, keeping the region cool and dry.
545 PM CST Sun Dec 1 2024 - Chance for light snow late tonight into Monday morning, with the highest chances west and south of the Quad Cities (40-70%).
High pressure will continue to build into the area and persist through at least midweek, providing dry and stable conditions.
859 PM EST Sun Dec 1 2024 High pressure and a drier airmass will build into the region through tonight.
632 PM EST Sun Dec 1 2024 High pressure and a drier airmass will build into the region through tonight.
The Gulf Coast remains under the influence of the broad synoptic longwave trough east of the Rockies, with northwesterly flow/subsidence & deep dry thermo profiles over the region.
630 PM EST Sun Dec 1 2024 A series of dry cold fronts will move through the area over the next couple of days.
Areas in the southeast Big Bend have gotten a little cooler than forecast and updated as necessary. Temperatures this evening will once again dip near or just below freezing across scattered areas within the forecast area, though no freeze products will be issued for any of our inland counties as all of them (except for coastal Walton, Bay, Gulf, and Franklin if they meet criteria in future forecasts) have seen their first widespread freeze of the year. Temperatures tomorrow will be slightly cooler than today with mid to upper 50s across SE AL and SW GA with upper 50s to low 60s across our FL counties.
High pressure continues to dominate the area, bringing mostly clear skies aside from some low clouds and fog in some of the river valleys. Cluster analysis of Mean 500mb heights, is signaling a ridging pattern through the end of the week. Chilly conditions with temperatures in the 30s were observed across most of the lower elevations early this morning with higher temperatures being reported at higher elevations. This phenomenon is also being featured in the EFI as anomalously high temperatures for ridges when compared to seasonal climatology. The low sun angle also helps shelter valleys with minimal time of sun exposure during the day. High temperatures could increase into the high 60s and low 70s for the coming days. This pattern will likely continue as ridging stays in place through the weekend and beyond.
930 PM EST Sun Dec 1 2024 High pressure will slowly build in from the middle of the country early in the week, while upper troughing remains in place aloft.
Light radar returns observed over northwestern San Bernardino and southwestern Inyo counties this afternoon as a result of a weak trough moving inland. A secondary weak area of low pressure will approach the southwestern coast Monday evening, which will return mid- and high-level clouds to southern Nevada, southeastern California, and northwestern Arizona. Meanwhile, a longwave ridge of high pressure will set up across the western CONUS. This aforementioned low will remain situated over the region through midweek as a result of Rex Blocking (due to the strong high pressure to the north, effectively trapping the low beneath it), though impacts from this low will be minimal, if any. Late-week, there are indications that a weak perturbation will ride along the upper-level ridge, temporarily weakening it enough to break the Rex Block pattern.
Dry and mainly sunny skies continue with a gradual warming trend with Valley highs in the low 60s. Upper level ridging is forecast to develop over the area as we move into the work week, which will help keep things dry and mostly clear. High temperatures will continue to be near or slightly above climatological normal for NorCal through the work week, with Valley high temperatures in the low 60s and cooler 40s to mid 50s for the higher elevations.
Many temperatures below/flirting with freezing already across the Mogollon Rim and northward. A high pressure ridge axis is centered over the state today, stretching to the northwest up into Oregon and Washington. A very weak, Pacific trough over the coastline is helping to spread some high level clouds across the area today. This ridge will continue to dominate the pattern into the coming week, with a continuation of mild weather and light winds.
522 PM CST Sun Dec 1 2024 - Light snow arrives from the northwest this evening, with minor accumulations from 1/4 to 1/2 inch tonight with the highest amounts in western MN.
Temperatures this evening will once again dip near or just below freezing across scattered areas within the forecast area, though no freeze products will be issued for any of our inland counties as all of them (except for coastal Walton, Bay, Gulf, and Franklin if they meet criteria in future forecasts) have seen their first widespread freeze of the year. Temperatures tomorrow will be slightly cooler than today with mid to upper 50s across SE AL and SW GA with upper 50s to low 60s across our FL counties.
A low pressure system that was previously off the coast of southern California has weakened as it has tracked northward. The resulting weak trough now sits with its axis extending along the California Pacific coast. The cyclonic flow around the trough is pulling in increased moisture from the ocean, which resulted in light, scattered showers across the region earlier this morning and continues to bring scattered cloud cover this afternoon. This is due to a split flow blocking pattern, with the aforementioned trough pushing upper level flow to the south, with an area of high pressure over northern California and Oregon pushing flow to the north through southwestern Canada.
631 PM EST Sun Dec 1 2024 A dry cold front will move across the area tonight and it will be followed by the coldest temperatures so far this late Fall season.
Temperatures this afternoon were running up to 5 degrees warmer than yesterday.
Will leave the mention out for now given the low probabilities and the inconsistent guidance signal. The likelihood of an approaching cold front beginning to enter northeast Oklahoma around daybreak will also point away from fog development. (Tomorrow through Sunday) The aforementioned cold front set to move through the area tomorrow should be either on our doorstep or already into parts of northeast Oklahoma at the beginning of the day.
Another day of quiet weather across northern and central Arizona as the ridge remains in control. The only hitch in the pattern is the trough off to the west that has helped to bring in some moisture aloft, resulting in mainly high clouds across the region. Over the next couple of days, this trough starts to push to the east but it doesn't bring much with it as it pushes into Arizona around the middle of the week.
Dew points have also been slow to fall off and are now broadly in the lower 60s. This flow will continue to drive cooler and drier air in across the island chain. Expect overnight lows to range broadly in the lower 60s some some locations in the Upper Keys possibly seeing the upper 50s. A strong high spilling southeastward into the southeast is driving a reinforcing cold front southward through the Keys.
/20/ (This evening through Monday Night) Surface ridging will continue to build in, coupled with the NW flow aloft, keeping the region cool and dry.
1024 PM EST Sun Dec 1 2024 A series of dry cold fronts will move through the area over the next couple of days.
1132 PM CST Sun Dec 1 2024 - Light snow arrives from the northwest this evening, with minor accumulations from 1/4 to 1/2 inch tonight with the highest amounts in western MN.
1019 PM EST Sun Dec 1 2024 A dry cold front will move across the area tonight and it will be followed by the coldest temperatures so far this late Fall season.
1250 AM EST Mon Dec 2 2024 A series of dry cold fronts will move through the area over the next couple of days.
High pressure over the western US brings mild temperatures and dry conditions through the coming work week.
1249 AM EST Mon Dec 2 2024 High pressure will prevail through the middle of the week. A cold front should push across the area near the end of the week. High pressure will bridge across a weak cold front that moves in, leading to a slight recoupling of winds, which in turn will prevent us from getting as cold as last night.
This may also happen in areas where temps are below freezing. a new cold front will drop SE into the state this afternoon. Temps look to warm well above freezing by the time any precip moves into the state to see all rain. yet another cold front will push through the state from the north. with warmer conditions and better rain chances possible by the end of the forecast.
A deep upper level trough remains over the eastern CONUS, with smaller waves flowing through it.
- Ridging remains stagnant over the region through much of the upcoming week. A large ridge will keep any disturbance well to the north and east of the CWA. The area of potent ridging that is keeping dry and mild conditions in place looks to gradually break down over the weekend.
The dry and tranquil weather conditions are here to stay for a while with the weather pattern remaining under a blocking type pattern through the coming weekend. Large scale upper level ridging will be the dominant weather feature during this time, despite a weak mostly cut-off upper level low trapped within the ridge. The upper level low is forecast to slowly drift through our region during the middle part of the week, but it will barely bring any temporary cooling, maybe 2-3 degrees across south-central Arizona.
The forecast area will continue to sit at the base of a short wave trough that is situated over the eastern half of the country for the next couple of days.
Discussion: Longwave troughing persists across the Eastern CONUS.
The upper-level ridge axis remains over the forecast area this evening, with a negative tilt aloft contributing to lighter southerly flow and high-level cirrus clouds across much of the region. Earlier, stratus and fog temporarily cleared much of the Lower Treasure Valley just before sunset but have since begun to redevelop. Dense fog is expected to persist through the morning commute in the Lower Treasure Valley, prompting the issuance of a Dense Fog Advisory through Monday morning.
204 AM CST Mon Dec 2 2024 - Light snow will be falling during the morning commute today, with areas of eastern Iowa seeing the lowest visibilities between 5 AM and 9 AM.
High pressure will continue to amplify into western Washington into early this week, allowing for dry conditions and periods of morning fog and low stratus. The upper ridge will weaken towards the middle of the week as the next storm system approaches, bringing in the next chance for widespread precipitation across the region.
1235 AM EST Mon Dec 2 2024 High pressure and a drier airmass will build into the region through tonight.
1258 AM MST Mon Dec 2 2024 High pressure is the only weather story to discuss for the next few days.
1119 PM CST Sun Dec 1 2024 - Chance for light snow late tonight into Monday morning, with the highest chances west and south of the Quad Cities (40-70%).
1152 PM CST Sun Dec 1 2024 (Tonight) A clear, cold evening across the Tennessee Valley this evening with high pressure at the surface. It's a very good night for radiational cooling and temperatures will drop off into the low to mid 20s in most locations by early Monday morning.
524 AM CST Mon Dec 2 2024 - Light snow will be falling during the morning commute today, with areas of eastern Iowa seeing the lowest visibilities between 5 AM and 9 AM.
Morning lows under mostly cloudy skies will be warmer in the low to mid 50s while areas with minimal or no cloud cover will dip into the upper 30s and 40s. While a stray sprinkle will be possible through this evening, drier air at the low levels will keep conditions mainly rain-free today.
(Today and tonight) A ridge of high pressure across the West Coast continues to dominate the pattern, thus the warming trend will continue today with temperatures up to 15 degrees above normal.
Under persistent high pressure, unseasonably warm daytime highs and chilly overnight temperatures will continue. This will allow for cooler overnight tempertures again over the next couple of nights, but lows will generally continue to moderate from what was observed over the past several nights. Daytime highs will be mild and much above average with an even further amplifying ridge.
(Now through Tuesday Night) The axis of a broad upper trough will continue to pivot eastward today, with northwesterly flow bringing a reinforcing shot of colder air across the Deep South. At the surface, high pressure will slowly build southeastward through the day, with an arctic airmass settling across the region. Further south, expect temps to warm into the lower to mid 50s, still roughly 10 to 15 degrees below normal.
A cold front passes through tonight into Tuesday, bringing temperatures into the low 20s Tuesday morning.
544 AM CST Mon Dec 2 2024 - Light snow will be falling during the morning commute today, with areas of eastern Iowa seeing the lowest visibilities between 5 AM and 9 AM.
The cut-off low that has been spinning over the Pacific over the past few days will finally be slowly working its way back into the main flow starting Tuesday.
This could lead to slightly cooler highs once again across the northern portions of the area, with high temps area-wide ranging from the mid 50s to the low 60s.
The next cold front entering IL and MO will arrive with lower clouds around 23-00Z.
523 AM CST Mon Dec 2 2024 - Slightly cooler temperatures for today with breezy conditions early in the day.
346 AM CST Mon Dec 2 2024 - A cold front moves through this morning. A cold front will move through this morning.
504 AM CST Mon Dec 2 2024 (Today through Tuesday) The most recent surface analysis indicated a trough of low pressure along the east coast of Mexico and over the western Gulf of Mexico. During the period, this trough will ease to the west, with closed low pressure eventually developing along the Lower Texas Coast. Finally, building seas along the Lower Texas Coast will produce a High Risk of rip currents at the local beaches during the entire period.
408 AM EST Mon Dec 2 2024 (Today through Tuesday) 500mb analysis continues to show a broad longwave trough across the eastern portion of the country. At the surface, strong high pressure will also dive southward from the upper midwest into the Lower Mississippi River Valley.
602 AM CST Mon Dec 2 2024 Today through tonight: A few areas of fog and freezing fog are possible this morning, and this should dissipate shortly after sunrise. A persistent longwave trough over the eastern CONUS will maintain northwest flow over the lower MS Valley region, and this will send the next cold front through the forecast area this evening followed by a significant intrusion of polar air. After a sunny day with temperatures rebounding well into the 50s to lower 60s, we'll see temperatures drop steadily behind the cold front to near or just below freezing by daybreak Tuesday.