Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Cloud coverage was expected to limit the amount of areas that would see 100, but the overall coverage was not expansive enough for the slightly cooler outcome to occur.
1249 PM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024 (Today and tonight) Mid/upper level ridge will remain in place across the region this weekend, which will result in dry conditions with above normal temperatures again today. The high clouds may temper temperatures a bit but afternoon highs are still expected to top out in the mid and upper 90s, with a few readings around 100 degrees across the Big Country. Temperatures will be a few degrees cooler tonight, as high clouds begin to decrease across the area, with lows mainly in the lower 70s.
High pressure continues to allow for dry and quiet weather over all of Upstate New York and western New England. Visible satellite imagery has been showing fairly clear skies over the area, with just some flat cumulus over the high terrain and no precip have developed due to the weak forcing and limited moisture in place. For this evening into tonight, high pressure over the region will continue to allow for dry and quiet weather. Highs should reach the lower to middle 80s in valley areas with mid to upper 70s across the high terrain. The upper level ridge will start to lose some influence, as a coastal system near the Southeast coast heads northwest and moves inland towards the mid Atlantic States.
These showers have struggled to achieve thunderstorm status, likely due to ridging and associated warm -20C geopotential heights. Water vapor imagery highlights upper level anticylonic flow over much of eastern Canada and the Northeast United States, with a broad region of weak troughiness over the Southeast. While there are a variety of solutions depicted in the global ensemble numerical weather prediction guidance, the most likely scenario as of now depicts the trough deepening just off the Southeast coastline, then retrograding southwestward towards the Florida Peninsula.
Ongoing cloud-cover to persist through the overnight hours as high clouds spill over the top of a ridge across central Texas.
Temperatures at 2 PM were in the mid to upper 70s due to the cloud cover but as the stratus mixes out, highs may warm into the lower to mid 80s late this afternoon.
The remnant low pressure from Francine was over central MS and its convection was well south of CWA over far southern IL and areas south of there. A strong 588-591 dm 500 mb high pressure ridge over the central Great Lakes and extending from New England back toward IL will continue to ridge over IL much of the upcoming week.
Upper ridging will continue to remain overhead through at least late tomorrow morning. An upper low off the coast of British Columbia will quickly move southward into the Pacific Northwest tonight and will deepen slightly. This will help to somewhat erode the overhead ridge. Models have convection developing across Arizona and New Mexico as the upper low digs southward, but this convection should remain west and north of the FA tomorrow. Tomorrow will be another warm day thanks to the overhead ridge with highs, though slightly cooler than today, reaching into the mid/upper 90s.
(This evening through Sunday Night) High pressure over Texas will keep the weather generally uneventful, with the exception of isolated showers/storms possible north of I-10 this afternoon (Piney Woods/Livingston areas). As for Sunday, a combination of a diffuse surface boundary moving, forcing from remnants of Ileana (coming from the Pacific) and remnants of Francine that will be sagging into the Lower Mississippi Valley will yield about a 20-30% chance of showers and storms generally west of I-45 on Sunday. Elsewhere, ridging and southerly flow will continue to contribute to above normal daytime temperatures as highs warm into the upper 80s along the coast and into the 90s further inland.
This is along a trough/convergence axis extending from a 5h low center near Memphis. The models continue to shift the trough axis just a bit further south tonight, which should shift the heaviest rain axis with it.
Flow will become SW tonight before giving way to a NW-SE oriented upper ridge over the forecast area on Sunday. Ridge shifts N Sun. Weak cold front pushes into the W Sun. night due to the low-level jet.
1228 PM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024 (Today through Sunday Night) Ridging over Texas will continue to bring relatively benign weather over the weekend.
The low chance for PoPs mainly west of Highway 75 will be maintained late tonight/Sunday morning within a narrow deformation zone axis between the remnant low of Francine and the impinging ridge axis to our west.
There was some drier air sampled in the lower and mid-levels, which could have been another cause of the quiet evening.
715 PM EDT Sat Sep 14 2024 Persistent high pressure will keep dry and warm conditions across the region. High pressure at the surface and aloft centered to the northeast of the region will remain in place.
543 PM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024 (This evening through Sunday Night) High pressure over Texas will keep the weather generally uneventful, with the exception of isolated showers/storms possible north of I-10 this afternoon (Piney Woods/Livingston areas). As for Sunday, a combination of a diffuse surface boundary moving, forcing from remnants of Ileana (coming from the Pacific) and remnants of Francine that will be sagging into the Lower Mississippi Valley will yield about a 20-30% chance of showers and storms generally west of I-45 on Sunday. Elsewhere, ridging and southerly flow will continue to contribute to above normal daytime temperatures as highs warm into the upper 80s along the coast and into the 90s further inland.
A generally unimpressive weather day out there today, with above normal temperatures in the low to mid 70s, and some scattered showers with very isolated thunder so far. CAPE values remain on the low side, generally below 1000j/kg, and deep layer shear of only 20 knots. We do have a gradually weakening cold front approaching the area, but it is just not strong enough to serve as a decent focus for generating stronger activity.
The remnant low of Francine currently sits between a frontal boundary just off the coast and a high pressure system to it's north. With that being said cloud cover may keep low temperatures a few degrees warmer than forecast. Cloud cover will continue to persist over the region this afternoon as moisture increases along the closed low. By this evening into the overnight, showers will continue to be likely in the northeast as the low continues to produce decent moisture along its circulation.
Main adjustment was to hourly temps as much of the central and southern valley were a few degrees warmer than the forecast.
919 PM EDT Sat Sep 14 2024 High pressure will remain in place into mid-week, bringing above average temperatures and dry, sunny weather.
618 PM EDT Sat Sep 14 2024 High pressure will remain in place into mid-week, bringing above average temperatures and dry, sunny weather.
830 PM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024 Yet another round of rain associated with an upper level low is moving through the Midsouth.
Overnight, cooler and drier air will advect westward into our eastern counties with temps/dewpoints falling into the upper 50s/low 60s. Her weakening upper low sits just off to our southwest and it continues to pull plenty of moisture into the area.
827 PM EDT Sat Sep 14 2024 High pressure will remain in place into mid-week, bringing above average temperatures and dry, sunny weather.
Little low and mid-level cloud cover today speaks to the lack of moisture throughout the column as the area remains situated between a mid-level wave lifting northeastward toward Minnesota and the remnants of Post Tropical Cyclone Francine over the mid-Mississippi River Valley.
914 PM EDT Sat Sep 14 2024 Persistent high pressure will keep dry and warm conditions across the region. High pressure at the surface and aloft centered to the northeast of the region will remain in place.
Aloft, the area is roughly between a ridge over TX and an East Coast trough, however the ridge is the bigger influence in the area locally. The upper ridge is anticipated to shift slightly west while the remnants of Francine move closer and weaken farther in response to a forming area of low pressure near the Carolina coast.
(Today through Monday) While an upper-level ridge is expected to hold through the duration of the short term forecast period, this today could see plenty of isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms over the region. As for temperatures, due to the expected increase in cloud coverage today, the high temperatures are expected to be cooler than normal. As such, the highs are expected to be in the range of upper 80s to low 90s for today. As for tomorrow, the high temperatures are expected to increase so that the entire region will be in the low 90s. As for the low temperatures, for tonight, they are expected to be in the 70s for the area.
Temperatures at 2 PM were in the mid to upper 70s due to the cloud cover but as the stratus mixes out, highs may warm into the lower to mid 80s late this afternoon. Tonight through Monday night: An intense upper trough will dig onshore across the northwest coast of the US and dig southeast into the southwestern US by 12Z TUE. A downstream H5 ridge will amplify across the Plains.
322 AM EDT Sun Sep 15 2024 High pressure will remain in place into mid-week, bringing above average temperatures and dry, sunny weather.
This cloud cover suppressed highs yesterday, and although thicknesses will decrease a little today, abundant insolation will allow highs ~ 2-4 F warmer than yesterday. Tonight, despite a LLJ, mostly clear skies will yield lows similar to this morning's, if not a degree cooler due to less cloud cover. Monday, an upper trough digging through the southwest CONUS nudges the ridge east, decreasing thicknesses slightly. This will combine w/increasing high cloud from the approaching trough to shave a couple of degrees off this afternoon's highs.
Nearly vertically stacked high pressure across the forecast area means mainly dry and slowly modifying airmass during the day and light winds and fog at night.
Better moisture increase should occur overnight into early Monday morning as the low moves closer to the coast. As for temperatures, below normal readings will continue again this afternoon with highs mainly in the lower 80s. Key Message(s): - Periods of heavy rain possible Monday and Monday night Low pressure is expected to move onshore between early Monday morning to Monday night. Ultimately this low will be the main influence on the sensible weather for The Midlands and CSRA in the short term.
Some light rain may be reaching the ground in spots, but suspect this is isolated due to the high cloud bases and lack of any rain at ob sites. Temperatures at 1930Z were in the upper 70s and low 80s, a degree or two cooler than forecast in some spots, but overall guidance had a low mean error. Given there will not be a significant airmass change, will stick close to the best performing guidance for temperatures going forward, which yields lows tonight around 60 degrees, and highs Sunday in the low to mid-80s, a few degrees cooler near Lake Michigan.
930 PM PDT Sat Sep 14 2024 A West Cosat low pressure trough will keep temperatures slightly below averages again Sunday.
Upper level high pressure remains overhead across the central and eastern CONUS today, which will largely aid to keep conditions on the dry side for the day. Remaining southerly low level flow with less cloud cover over much of the state today will result in warmer temperatures as highs are expected to reach into the mid to upper 80s.
Lows will stay in the mid to upper 70s with increased cloud cover tonight, but drier air and clearer skies Sunday night will drop lows a few degrees, into the low to mid 70s.
Of course, with the rain, there will be clouds, which will help us remain a bit cooler than the last few days especially in the Rido Grande Plains as high temperatures range from the mid 80s near LRD to the mid 90s around VCT. Monday looks to shape up a bit warmer, with areas south of a line from LRD to NGP expected to be less than 95 degrees, and north of that line 95-100.
(Today through Monday Night) Remnants of Tropical Cyclone Francine will continue to meander around the region through the period keeping precipitation chances in the forecast before ending Monday evening, at the earliest.
The upper level high remains to the east of the region into early this week, with a trough digging across the western parts of the country. At the surface, high pressure is expected to remain well to the east, with dry east southeasterly flow and continued warm temperatures. Similar temperatures are expected on Monday, as the high remains well east.
The weather pattern remains stagnant due to an upper level Rex Block to our east, formed by eastern Great Lakes to Mid- Atlantic ridging and weakening remnants of TC Francine over portions of the Mid-South. Meanwhile, south to southwest flow prevails aloft across the region with upper troughing along the West Coast. 5+ inches) lingers across the region on the western periphery of the Great Lakes ridge, and may once again foster isolated/widely scattered convection later today into early evening with aid of convective temps (mid 80s) being breached and weak mid level vorticity advection.
This afternoon and evening, an anticyclone in the 750/700 mb level over Texas shifts slowly northeast, but this allows increasing moisture near and below 700 mb to move west and then north into western Oklahoma and the panhandles.
A few storms could produce some stronger downburst given the high bases and DCAPE values indicated on forecast soundings. The weak surface boundary looks to stall near the northeast CWA on Monday, however ridging aloft builds slightly over the area which may limit any chances for convective development. Will keep the Monday forecast dry, with better moisture and less ridging confined well south of the area.
203 AM EDT Sun Sep 15 2024 Persistent high pressure will keep dry and warm conditions across the region. High pressure at the surface and aloft centered to the northeast of the region will remain in place. On Monday morning, an upper high will remain in place from the eastern Great Lakes through the northeastern CONUS. The Ohio Valley will still be in a dry and stagnant pattern as a result of the high, with generally easterly flow.
1210 AM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024 (This evening through Monday Night) The short-term period will remain forecasted as advertised over the last few days with the pesky remnant low pressure that was once Hurricane Francine continuing to meander across the region and spiral drizzle and some light rain into portions of northeastern, north-central, and central Arkansas.
The remnant low pressure from Francine was over central MS and its convection was well south of CWA over far southern IL and areas south of there. A strong 588-591 dm 500 mb high pressure ridge over the central Great Lakes and extending from New England back toward IL will continue to ridge over IL much of the upcoming week. A mid/upper level trof along the West Coast to deepen over the Rockies and stay out west much of the week with a blocking upper level pattern prevailing over the US.
306 AM EDT Sun Sep 15 2024 High pressure will remain in place into mid-week, bringing above average temperatures and dry, sunny weather.
106 AM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024 (Tonight through Monday) A convergence zone in the lower levels remains aligned northwest to southeast. This zone was north of a surface front and weak low pressure south of Montgomery. Overnight lows will be slightly cooler than last night mainly between 65 and 70 degrees. 75 Previous short-term discussion: (This evening through Sunday) The wet pattern continues for the short term with a low pressure and associated boundary that will linger along the coast with moisture continuing to stream up and around it into C AL. In the upper levels, an upper low is still present across the SE US but will continue to slowly weaken through Sunday.
300 AM EDT Sun Sep 15 2024 Dry weather will continue through Monday under high pressure.
1113 PM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024 (This evening through Sunday Night) High pressure over Texas will keep the weather generally uneventful, with the exception of isolated showers/storms possible north of I-10 this afternoon (Piney Woods/Livingston areas). As for Sunday, a combination of a diffuse surface boundary moving, forcing from remnants of Ileana (coming from the Pacific) and remnants of Francine that will be sagging into the Lower Mississippi Valley will yield about a 20-30% chance of showers and storms generally west of I-45 on Sunday. Elsewhere, ridging and southerly flow will continue to contribute to above normal daytime temperatures as highs warm into the upper 80s along the coast and into the 90s further inland.
Anticipate the isolated showers to continue in central and north-central WI for the remainder of the morning, and possibly into the early afternoon, until dry air from high pressure to the east retrogrades into the area this afternoon.
(Today) Flooding concerns from the remnants of Francine will come to an end today as the low pressure system retrogrades to the west taking our high rain chances with it. Rain looks to exit the area for good this afternoon as the low pressure system retrogrades far enough west to lose its influence on us.
1136 PM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024 Yet another round of rain associated with an upper level low is moving through the Midsouth.
133 AM EDT Sun Sep 15 2024 High pressure will remain in place into mid-week, bringing above average temperatures and dry, sunny weather.
Further west a deep longwave trough is working onshore the Pacific coast, bringing a more active pattern over the Plains states this week. Strong surface ridging that extends as far west as the eastern Plains states as of today will halt the remnants of the tropical system, with it expected to become nearly stationary over Virgina/North Carolina by midweek.
Monday features the start of what looks to be a quieter week with ridging building over the Plains, allowing for dry northerly flow overhead.
Despite the clouds, temperatures have warmed into the lower to mid 90s across the area.
Flow will become SW tonight before giving way to a NW-SE oriented upper ridge over the forecast area on Sunday. Ridge shifts N Sun. Weak cold front pushes into the W Sun. night due to the low-level jet. Arthur As an upper low moves into the Great Basin on Monday, diffluent southerly flow, along with energy and moisture begin moving into the area bringing increasing shower and thunderstorm chances for western areas.
The West Coast trough forms a closed low and moves into the Great Basin on Monday night, pushing moisture into the Northern Rockies from the south.
(Sunday through Monday night) The trough axis edges a bit further south on Sunday. By Monday, all areas should reach the lower 80s in valley locations when dew points should drop into the upper 50s to lower 60s.
A drier and warmer pattern will begin taking hold and ultimately work across the area in east-to-west fashion over the course of this new week.
Discussion: A dominant upper ridge will remain situated from the eastern Great Lakes southward along the Appalachian chain through the short term period more or less. During this time it will also be shoved westward towards the coast thanks to the aforementioned ridge, possibly pushing into the central parts of SC by the end of the short term period.
(Today through Monday) The remnants of Francine are still slowly sagging southward but continuing to weaken into an open trough.
621 AM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024 (Today through Monday) While an upper-level ridge is expected to hold through the duration of the short term forecast period, this today could see plenty of isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms over the region. As for temperatures, due to the expected increase in cloud coverage today, the high temperatures are expected to be cooler than normal. As such, the highs are expected to be in the range of upper 80s to low 90s for today. As for tomorrow, the high temperatures are expected to increase so that the entire region will be in the low 90s. As for the low temperatures, for tonight, they are expected to be in the 70s for the area.
Meanwhile south-southeast sfc winds to pick up over SE ND into WC MN Monday aftn with dew pts rising into the low 70s potentially and what appears to be a weak surface boundary setting up between the cooler air with potential storminess north and the hotter airmass south.
Cooler weather with chances for showers and thunderstorms will move in later today and continue through Monday.
The low (remnants of "Francine") has become stuck in place as it weakens, with the broad high to the northeast blocking it from further northward progression. This synoptic pattern will continue, with a ridge along the eastern slopes of the Rockies further holding this disturbance just southeast of CWA boundaries at least through Monday. An upper-level ridge will slowly start to build back into the area as the week progresses and the synoptic pattern breaks the block, with temperatures gradually warming through the week.
654 AM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024 (Sunday through Monday) The remnants of Tropical Cyclone Francine continues to meander across northern Mississippi this morning. Upper ridging has set-up just to the west of the region across the Southern Plains. As a result, a pseudo frontal boundary has develop across the areas on the edge of the ridge and near the trough associated with Francine. Expect cooler temps as well, with most locations seeing highs in the mid 80s. (Monday Night through Sunday) The remnants of Francine will get absorb into a deepening trough across the Lower Mississippi Valley and SE CONUS, as another potential tropical cyclone moves into that region out of the Carolinas.
803 AM EDT Sun Sep 15 2024 Dry weather will continue through Monday under high pressure.
Of course, with the rain, there will be clouds, which will help us remain a bit cooler than the last few days especially in the Rio Grande Plains as high temperatures range from the mid 80s near LRD to the mid 90s around VCT. Monday looks to shape up a bit warmer, with areas south of a line from LRD to NGP expected to be less than 95 degrees, and north of that line 95-100.
High pressure was in control across the eastern half of the CONUS this morning with a few lingering light showers across parts of northern Wisconsin and upper Michigan. With the high in place to the east, the Upper Midwest remains on the western periphery with persistent southwest flow through much of the column keeping the supply of warm air flowing into the region. With the high to the east and a strong trough to the west, this creates a ring of fire pattern from the Deep South into the Plains and northward into the Upper Midwest. There is some signal for perhaps some better chances for rainfall heading into the weekend and for cooler temperatures during this time period as well.
618 AM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024 (Today through Monday Night) Remnants of Tropical Cyclone Francine will continue to meander around the region through the period keeping precipitation chances in the forecast before ending Monday evening, at the earliest.
Cloud cover will limit the diurnal heating keeping temperatures in the mid to upper 70s, except in northeast Alabama and southern middle Tennessee where temperatures this afternoon are forecast to rise into the lower 80s.
This closed low will help increase cloud cover and rain and storm chances across our CWA with the greatest coverage in the N/NE half of our forecast area.
531 AM EDT Sun Sep 15 2024 Dry weather will continue through Monday under high pressure.
639 AM EDT Sun Sep 15 2024 High pressure will remain in place into mid-week, bringing above average temperatures and dry, sunny weather.
610 AM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024 (Today) Flooding concerns from the remnants of Francine will come to an end today as the low pressure system retrogrades to the west taking our high rain chances with it. Rain looks to exit the area for good this afternoon as the low pressure system retrogrades far enough west to lose its influence on us.