Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
As a result, slightly cooler highs around 50F are expected across the northern zones. We will see cooler highs tomorrow in the wake of the front. Later tonight after 03Z a stronger cold front will move through western Kansas and lead to breezy winds mainly for DDC and HYS between 03-15Z.
Updated at 944 AM CST Tue Dec 17 2024 - Above normal temps ahead of a stronger cold front that moves through Wednesday. - Thunderstorm chances increase again Tuesday evening/night ahead of the next cold front.
CAM guidance is in good agreement with the cold front reaching our northern counties and passing completely through South Texas through the afternoon hours on Wednesday. High temperatures will likely occur just ahead of the front, ranging from the mid 70s north to the lower 80s south. Clear skies, offshore flow, and much drier air will allow low temperatures to drop to the low 40s over the northern Coastal Plains to around 50 along the coast.
1108 AM CST Tue Dec 17 2024 Updated at 1106 AM CST Tue Dec 17 2024 - Next cold front arrives tonight with breezy north winds expected and showers/thunderstorms possible. A stronger cold front will make a push late this evening, and will continue through the overnight hours.
/29 (Now through Wednesday night) An upper trof evolves mainly over the central/northern Plains today then amplifies while progressing into the eastern states through Wednesday evening. Lows tonight range from the lower 50s well inland to near 60 at the coast.
Cloud cover will erode with time from the southeast to northwest, permitting insolation that will help raise temperatures along with a return to more synoptic- scale weak warm advection in the lower levels toward midday will likely result in some instability being realized, perhaps enough to maintain some of the ongoing activity with enough thunderstorm potential to mention in the forecast across our western counties from late morning through at least early afternoon. Flow aloft will slowly back with time as an upper-level trough begins to advance toward the Mississippi Valley later tonight.
311 PM EST Tue Dec 17 2024 Brief high pressure for the rest of today and tonight. Another low pressure system along with a cold frontal boundary to bring rain and snow showers Wednesday afternoon through the night.
- A cold front will move through the region during the first half of the day Wednesday with a 20-50% chance of brief showers along it.
1019 AM EST Tue Dec 17 2024 High pressure will build into the region briefly this afternoon into tonight before another low pressure system impacts the area Wednesday.
- A cold front late tonight will bring breezy and much cooler conditions on Wednesday. At the surface, robust southwesterly flow continues over our area ahead of a cold front entering the OK Panhandle at 19z. Despite this, a dry frontal passage is expected later this evening with the cold front progged to pass through the entire area by midnight. Highs on Wednesday will be much cooler than today, but will still be around normal for this time of year (low to mid 50s) with a lack of any particularly cold air upstream. Winds are then expected to weaken fairly quickly on Wednesday afternoon as surface ridging settles overhead, with largely calm winds expected by sunset.
Updated at 204 PM CST Tue Dec 17 2024 - Widespread showers and thunderstorms along cold front late this evening south of I-40. - Strong gusty north winds behind cold front late tonight into Wednesday.
341 PM EST Tue Dec 17 2024 High pressure will weaken this evening, and the next weather system will bring rain across the Ohio Valley on Wednesday.
222 PM EST Tue Dec 17 2024 Brief high pressure for the rest of today and tonight. Another low pressure system along with a cold frontal boundary to bring rain and snow showers Wednesday afternoon through the night.
Warmer conditions continue across the Florida Keys this afternoon. Temperature along the island chain have found no trouble rising into the lower 80s as this morning's rain showers have drifted off to the southwest and fallen apart.
Adjusted PoP trends to add in low PoPs for late this morning and into the afternoon hours for the Lower and Mid Rio Grande Valley.
102 PM MST Tue Dec 17 2024 KEY MESSAGES: - Mixed precipitation, including freezing rain possible tonight into Wednesday morning across northwest Montana. - High pressure late in the week introduces fog and low stratus Our next weather system will bring an Atmospheric River over the Northern Rockies late this evening, through the day Wednesday. This will be a scenario where the valleys along Highway 2 in northwest Montana will receive another round of light snow and/or light freezing rain. In the higher elevations, heavy, wet snow is expected.
Precipitation has ended in most areas a little ahead of schedule as a warm front continues to push north and east. Areas of fog have also developed in portions of the lower Treasure Valley along the I-84 corridor from Nampa through Ontario and westward towards Baker City.
Some clearing has occurred along the KY/MO borders as high pressure nudges into the area. Temps range from the lower 50s north to around 60 along the front. The stalled front will start to lift north as a warm front later today in response to a mid level trough moving into the Plains. Warm weather and thunderstorms, some potentially severe, continue today ahead of a cold front that will pass tonight through Wednesday.
Updated at 245 PM CST Tue Dec 17 2024 - Next cold front arrives tonight with breezy north winds expected and showers/thunderstorms possible. (Rest of today and tonight) The 2 PM surface analysis indicates the lee-side low from this morning has moved to central Nebraska with a cold front extending west-ward towards the northeastern corner of Colorado. The prefrontal trough extended across west-central Kansas and over northwest Oklahoma.
Surface analysis this morning indicates a warm front lifting across the area near/just north of the AR and LA border. Scattered shower activity will continue throughout the day both in the vicinity of the northward lifting warm front across OK and AR and within the unstable airmass across E TX and LA. Kovacik (18Z TAFS) A warm front has begun to lift back N this morning, and extends from along the Red River bordering NE TX/SE OK, E across the Nrn sections of SW AR N of a TXK to ELD line. A cold front is expected to enter the NW sections of the region between 09-11Z Wednesday, with a SW to NE band of convection expected to develop/spread SE through the region along the front by/after daybreak.
1154 AM CST Tue Dec 17 2024 Updated at 1153 AM CST Tue Dec 17 2024 - A cold front will bring strong northeasterly winds through Guadalupe Pass late tonight through Wednesday morning, where a High Wind Watch is in effect. - Cooler temperatures and gusty northeast winds are to be expected for all on Wednesday.
1155 AM CST Tue Dec 17 2024 (Today through Wednesday) Key Messages: - Dense Fog Advisory in effect through 11AM - Strong Cold Front expected tomorrow As winds calmed overnight across South Texas, some areas have seen radiation fog developing thus deteriorating conditions. The cold front will begin to sweep through the CWA beginning around midday tomorrow clearing the region by the evening.
There is very low confidence in fog tonight given the dense cloud cover and increasing gradient winds ahead of a positively tilted trough and associated cold front.
340 PM EST Tue Dec 17 2024 Weak high pressure will build into the area tonight. Another area of low pressure and associated cold front impact the area with another round of rainfall late Wednesday into Wednesday night.
Meanwhile, a cold front will bring a band of showers and isolated embedded storms mid/late Wednesday morning into northwest MS, southeast AR, and northeast LA. Conditions will turn cooler and breezy by tomorrow afternoon in the wake of the front. /DL/ By Wednesday evening into the overnight, an upper trough is progged to continue extending towards the LA/MS coast, bringing a strong cold frontal boundary into the Lower Mississippi River Valley. Deep NW flow on the eastern side of a trough axis will push cold.
(Now through Wednesday) An upper trof evolves mainly over the central/northern Plains today then amplifies while progressing into the eastern states through Wednesday evening. Lows tonight range from the lower 50s well inland to near 60 at the coast. Fog development is expected again tonight, and at this point the highest probability for dense fog development looks to be over much of southeast Mississippi.
1121 AM CST Tue Dec 17 2024 Updated at 1117 AM CST Tue Dec 17 2024 - Above normal temps ahead of a stronger cold front that moves through Wednesday. - Thunderstorm chances increase again Tuesday evening/night ahead of the next cold front.
Northerly to northwesterly flow has developed across the region, most notably across the Lower Colorado River Valley this afternoon. In the upper levels, ridging is building across the West Coast, resulting in downstream northwesterly flow across the Desert Southwest. This ridging feature will be the dominant weather feature across the region going through the rest of this week and into this weekend, resulting a marked temperature increase.
936 PM EST Tue Dec 17 2024 High pressure will weaken this evening, and the next weather system will bring rain across the Ohio Valley on Wednesday.
509 PM CST Tue Dec 17 2024 - A cold front late tonight will bring breezy and much cooler conditions on Wednesday. At the surface, robust southwesterly flow continues over our area ahead of a cold front entering the OK Panhandle at 19z. Despite this, a dry frontal passage is expected later this evening with the cold front progged to pass through the entire area by midnight. Highs on Wednesday will be much cooler than today, but will still be around normal for this time of year (low to mid 50s) with a lack of any particularly cold air upstream. Winds are then expected to weaken fairly quickly on Wednesday afternoon as surface ridging settles overhead, with largely calm winds expected by sunset.
KEY MESSAGES: - Increasing clouds overnight with an approaching disturbance - Rain chances increase just before dawn - Can't rule out a brief period of wintry mix mid-day north of Pittsburgh - Snow chances increase north to south after sunset ------------------------------------------------------------------- Clouds will increase late tonight/early Wednesday morning with an approaching low pressure system. Precipitation is expected to remain predominantly rain through early afternoon as 850mb temperatures hovering around 2-4 degrees C and surface temperatures above freezing under southwest flow. However, as a cold front advances into the region from the north between 17Z and 19Z, some snow or ice pellets could mix near I-80 before precipitation tapers off from mid-level dry air advancing in from the west.
321 PM MST Tue Dec 17 2024 KEY MESSAGES: - A messy wintry mix of snow, sleet, freezing rain, and blowing snow will spread from west to east through northeast Montana beginning Wednesday morning.
The greatest rain potential will be over northern Georgia where lift along an advancing cold front should be the key driver.
- High pressure brings a return to quiet weather along with a warming trend during the latter half of the week and into the weekend. A short wave trough brushing northwest Colorado combined with what appears to be frontogenetic forcing was responsible for snow showers over the northern Colorado mountains and lower elevations to the west out to near CAG. Dry northwest flow will bring partly to mostly sunny skies on Wednesday with high temperatures running near those recorded today for most locales, and a little warmer in the north where clouds and snow has kept temperatures down.
High pressure surface and aloft remains over the region. Boundary layer winds will shift to the southeast ahead of an approaching cold front.
A weak area of high pressure is building over the region this afternoon in the wake of a trough that brought widespread snow to the area. As the aforementioned ridge continues to build over the area, we will have to watch out for some overnight stratus/fog across the upper Snake Plain, upper Snake highlands and into the Arco Desert and have added freezing fog into the forecast accordingly. Confidence isn't the highest with this but given ample low level moisture in place and building high pressure, it certainly seems plausible. Valley temperatures should climb into the lower to mid 40s with mid to upper 30s the norm across the higher terrain.
644 PM EST Tue Dec 17 2024 High pressure will weaken this evening, and the next weather system will bring rain across the Ohio Valley on Wednesday.
High pressure will settle into the region, resulting in dry and mild conditions, as well as potential for building haze.
A cold front will push through the Mid-South with showers and thunderstorms through Wednesday morning.
516 PM CST Tue Dec 17 2024 Updated at 506 PM CST Tue Dec 17 2024 - Next cold front arrives tonight with breezy north winds expected and showers/thunderstorms possible. (Rest of today and tonight) The 2 PM surface analysis indicates the lee-side low from this morning has moved to central Nebraska with a cold front extending west-ward towards the northeastern corner of Colorado. The prefrontal trough extended across west-central Kansas and over northwest Oklahoma.
- A line of storms will accompany a cold front late tonight into Wednesday morning.
550 PM CST Tue Dec 17 2024 Updated at 204 PM CST Tue Dec 17 2024 - Widespread showers and thunderstorms along cold front late this evening south of I-40. - Strong gusty north winds behind cold front late tonight into Wednesday.
536 PM CST Tue Dec 17 2024 A cold front will push through the Mid-South with showers and thunderstorms through Wednesday morning.
A cold front is moving into northeast Colorado, which will push through the rest of the plains early this evening. While accumulations should be minimal, the convective nature of showers means spotty ~1" accumulations in the lower elevations. Mountains will continue to see snow through mid evening, with travel impacts due to snow covered roads and blowing snow over the higher passes.
505 PM MST Tue Dec 17 2024 Updated at 457 PM MST Tue Dec 17 2024 - Cold front arrives Wednesday morning, bringing breezy east winds and a slight cool down. With the polar jet track fixed well to our north and a subtropical high over northern Mexico and the Rio Grande Valley, dry and warmer-than-normal conditions will persist through the Christmas holiday week. Main headline in the short-term forecast is a cold front moving south down the High Plains this evening. Breezy winds Wednesday morning behind the cold front, with the strongest gusts along mountain west slopes. In terms of temperature, a slight cool down will be felt behind the cold front, but temperatures will remain at or above normal for mid-December. Wednesday's lowland highs will be in the lower 60s, only 5-10 degrees cooler than today.
651 PM PST Tue Dec 17 2024 A strong surge of moisture overnight will produce snow and pockets of freezing rain tonight and rain and snow for eastern Washington and north Idaho. The passage of a cold front on Wednesday will create wind gusts as high as 50 mph across the Palouse and Columbia Basin. The forecast has been updated to delay the transition from snow to rain and freezing rain for Wenatchee, Leavenworth, Stevens Pass, the Methow Valley, and Waterville Plateau. Freezing rain amounts have been trended down to between a tenth and a third of an inch for Coles Corner to Stevens Pass and between a tenth and two-tenths for Plain and Leavenworth. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Low confidence for freezing rain at KEAT.
110 PM PST Tue Dec 17 2024 Northerly winds will become elevated and gusty across the Lower Colorado River Valley by late this afternoon into early evening. These gusty winds will continue through Wednesday afternoon, but otherwise, a quiescent week is ahead with ridging and above normal temperatures expected through the start of the weekend.
Fair stretch of weather present thru the end of the week under an upper ridge. Tonight through Wednesday night High pressure under an upper ridge continues to build into the western U. Daytime high temperatures Wednesday will be in the mid 40s to mid 50s with the cooler temperatures across northern Nevada.
Updated at 200 PM MST Tue Dec 17 2024 - Cold front arrives Wednesday morning, bringing breezy east winds and a slight cool down. With the polar jet track fixed well to our north and a subtropical high over northern Mexico and the Rio Grande Valley, dry and warmer-than-normal conditions will persist through the Christmas holiday week. Main headline in the short-term forecast is a cold front moving south down the High Plains this evening. Breezy winds Wednesday morning behind the cold front, with the strongest gusts along mountain west slopes. In terms of temperature, a slight cool down will be felt behind the cold front, but temperatures will remain at or above normal for mid-December. Wednesday's lowland highs will be in the lower 60s, only 5-10 degrees cooler than today.
240 AM CST Wed Dec 18 2024 - Due to the uncertainty of the track of the low pressure system through the region from late tonight into Thursday evening, confidence for snow amounts in the excess 3 inches is in the 50-80 percent range along and north of Interstate 94 and 20-50 percent for the remainder of the area.
The highest amounts that COULD occur would on the spine of the Sawtooths and higher elevations around Island Park, and the still is only an inch or 2 at best. It will be breezy but with warmer temperatures, blowing snow will be minimalized. Fri through Sat afternoon will be dry with high pressure dominating the pattern. This upper level ridge will break down as a strong storm moves into the Pacific Northwest. This means upper 30s to lower 40s for the Snake River plain for highs, and lows in the lower to middle 20s.
- Temperatures at or below freezing late Wednesday night and Thursday morning. Otherwise, cooler and drier conditions will persist tomorrow following a cold frontal passage.
By afternoon the stronger lift will be out of the area, but model soundings indicate that temperatures will crash with the low levels falling into the dendritic layer and what appears to be enough moisture to support scattered snow showers in many locations.
1046 PM CST Tue Dec 17 2024 - A cold front late tonight will bring breezy and much cooler conditions on Wednesday. At the surface, robust southwesterly flow continues over our area ahead of a cold front entering the OK Panhandle at 19z. Despite this, a dry frontal passage is expected later this evening with the cold front progged to pass through the entire area by midnight. Highs on Wednesday will be much cooler than today, but will still be around normal for this time of year (low to mid 50s) with a lack of any particularly cold air upstream. Winds are then expected to weaken fairly quickly on Wednesday afternoon as surface ridging settles overhead, with largely calm winds expected by sunset.
Updated at 215 AM CST Wed Dec 18 2024 - Colder today behind cold front with gusty northerly winds.
114 AM CST Wed Dec 18 2024 (This evening through Thursday) The cold front that pushed thru the area became stationary over southern AR this morning and has started to drift a bit back to the north thru the day. An upper level trof was pushing into the upper Plains this afternoon, and will quickly dig southward into the lower Mississippi Valley tonight and tomorrow. The big weather driver at the moment will be another cold front approaching from the northwest. The post-frontal passage will bring cooler and drier air into the state, but clouds will linger a bit longer thru the day tomorrow until the upper level trof begins to move eastward.
With progged soundings largely saturated and below freezing from the surface through the DGZ, light snow should result there for a few hours with some locations potentially (30% per 17.
In the High Sierra/Foothills and Tehachapi Mountains, VFR conditions are expected to prevail for the 24 hour period.
Meanwhile, a cold front will bring a band of showers and isolated embedded storms mid/late Wednesday morning into northwest MS, southeast AR, and northeast LA. Conditions will turn cooler and breezy by tomorrow afternoon in the wake of the front. /DL/ By Wednesday evening into the overnight, an upper trough is progged to continue extending towards the LA/MS coast, bringing a strong cold frontal boundary into the Lower Mississippi River Valley. Deep NW flow on the eastern side of a trough axis will push cold. By Thursday, low level ridging is expected to build into the region, bringing drier air and closer to seasonable temperatures throughout the region. By the end of the weekend into the next work week, temperatures will begin to trend warmer as surface ridging intensifies.
This is evident as the cirrus shield associated with the mid-level cold front continues to move southward, with subsidence quickly advecting in behind as per recent water-vapor imagery. Saturation of the lower-boundary layer has occurred along the cold front in the southeastern Rolling Plains, but this stratus deck will quickly move to the south of the CWA as the front moves farther south.
The local area remains sandwiched between a frontal boundary over the plains and a ridge centered along the SE US. While near shore water temps are fairly warm for mid Dec, water temperatures along the coast are in the low to mid 60s. A short wave will sweep across the region Wednesday with a cold front diving to the coast by afternoon. Cooler and drier air will filter in for the remainder of the week.
- Cooler and breezy today. - Temperatures at or below freezing late tonight and Thursday morning. Otherwise, cooler and drier conditions will persist tomorrow following a cold frontal passage.
Upper level ridging through the end of the week leading to calm weather. The continued ridging will allow temperatures to climb, with both high and low temperatures averaging 10-15 degrees above normal for this time of year.
Although southerly gradient flow in the low-levels should begin to strengthen after midnight in response to the movement of the surface cyclone, the combination of light winds and abundant boundary layer moisture has resulted in the development of fog across much of the forecast area as of this writing. Regarding chances for precipitation, latest guidance from the CAMs suggests that the majority of the forecast area will remain rain-free through 12Z, with nocturnal convection expected to gradually become concentrated in the vicinity of the low's trailing cold front (well to our northwest).
While not ideal for radiative cooling, cold air advection on light northerlies will aid in dropping temperatures around 10-15 degrees F cooler than we are seeing this morning. As this stacked low continues to track east, low level ridging is expected to build into the southeast CONUS by Thursday afternoon. This low level ridging will bringing cooler and drier air across the region allowing for near seasonable temperatures for our entire forecast area.
322 AM EST Wed Dec 18 2024 High pressure and weak coastal troughing along with unseasonably warm temperatures will be giving way to a cold frontal passage tonight into early Thursday.
1101 PM CST Tue Dec 17 2024 Updated at 204 PM CST Tue Dec 17 2024 - Widespread showers and thunderstorms along cold front late this evening south of I-40. - Strong gusty north winds behind cold front late tonight into Wednesday.
(Today) A warm front has lifted north into KY as a low pressure system shifts east through southern MO.
1047 PM CST Tue Dec 17 2024 Updated at 1046 PM CST Tue Dec 17 2024 - Next cold front arrives tonight with breezy north winds expected and showers/thunderstorms possible. (Rest of today and tonight) The 2 PM surface analysis indicates the lee-side low from this morning has moved to central Nebraska with a cold front extending west-ward towards the northeastern corner of Colorado. The prefrontal trough extended across west-central Kansas and over northwest Oklahoma.