Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
502 AM CST Sat Feb 17 2024 - Single digit wind chills this morning along and north of the Highway 60 corridor. This combination will drive wind chills into the single digits along and north of the Highway 60 corridor early this morning. Scattered low clouds will persist through much of the morning before clearing in the afternoon as much drier air filters into the area and the low-level moisture diminishes. The primary concern Sunday will be some elevated grass fire danger in the afternoon given the warmer temperatures, dry airmass, and west winds of 10-20 mph.
(Rest of Today) Temps will struggle to rebound later today following the passage of a cold front last night. Current temps are predom in the lower 30s/near 30F. However, with north winds around 10-15 MPH with higher gusts, wind chills are currently in the lower 20s. Even with some breaks in the clouds, highs later today will struggle to surpass the upper 30s in southern mid TN and the lower 40s in north AL, given the continued influx of cooler air.
Synopsis: Surface analysis early this morning shows strong Arctic high pressure over the northern plains states, building southeast toward Indiana. Yesterdayâs low pressure system had pushed east to the middle Atlantic States. Aloft, water vapor showed a deep upper low over Hudson Bay and this feature was supplying broad cyclonic flow to the eastern third of the United States. However, a slightly inverted V soundings within the lower levels suggests that some afternoon stratocu may be possible. Thus highs in the lower to middle 20s will likely be the best temperatures may reach today. This will likely result in wind chill values today in the high single digits or low teens. The sustained wind should allow for slightly warmer low temperatures, in the lower 20 as warm air advection begins. Generally quiet weather with warmer than normal temperatures expected through the long range.
Clear to partly cloudy skies prevail along the Florida Keys on this early Saturday morning, with KBYX radar detecting only a few light showers around the Lower Keys and over the Lower Straits to the southwest and west of Key West. Surface analysis depicts high pressure retreating farther offshore over the western Atlantic, with a cold front extending from Virgina through the Lower Mississippi Valley to the Texas Coastal Bend. A few light showers or sprinkles will move across parts of the Lower Keys early this morning, otherwise dry weather is expected. High temps will be the warmest of the week, reaching the lower 80s. Most of the guidance remains in agreement with slower eastward movement of this low, which will probably delay frontal passage through the Keys until around or soon after midnight on Sunday night.
Issued 405 AM CST Sat Feb 17 2024 Today and Tonight: Behind the cold front this morning, temperatures continue to fall. Late this morning winds will shift to southwesterly across Wisconsin as the state finds itself between a low pressure moving through Canada and high pressure in the southern plains. Tonight will be slightly warmer than this morning with gusty west winds keeping wind chills in the teens.
525 AM CST Sat Feb 17 2024 (Today through Sunday) Key Messages: - Breezy today behind the cold front - Medium chance of freezing temps Sunday morning MSAS indicates the cold front we've been watching is currently draped over South Texas. Cooler temperatures are expected today with highs expected in the upper 40s to mid 50s. A few areas could experience freezing temperatures overnight, particularly in the normal drainage areas. With the sunshine finally returning, expect to see warmer temperatures on Sunday, with highs in the mid 50s to low 60s.
- Winds enhanced along the ridge/downslope of the Sisseton hills could result in blowing/drifting snow and possibly icy road conditions, with the focus on I-29 late this morning through the afternoon from the Summit area and south.
The upper-level trough and core of coldest low-level air will be departing, so snow showers will gradually weaken through the day.
554 AM CST Sat Feb 17 2024 (Saturday through Sunday) The potent cold front continues to clear the region, with stiff cold air advection working in behind it. The clearing clouds will also allow for some radiational cooling potential overnight, as lows are anticipated to drop below freezing for a large portion of the area. Temperatures will once again likely be below freezing for most of the region. However, temperatures will begin to warm from there, as upper-level ridging will slowly begin to work into the region.
321 AM CST Sat Feb 17 2024 - Warmer & Breezier Today High Temperatures Near 30 With Winds Gusting 25 to 35 mph. Chance For Potentially Higher Gusts Late This Evening Before Overnight Surface Cooling - Warming Trend Through New Week, Little To No Precipitation Chances Early Morning Observations & Near Term Impacts: A slightly warmer and breezier day on tap as the upper level trough axis slowly traverses the Upper Mississippi River Valley. This low level warm air advection peaks this afternoon into early evening, providing temperatures in the 30s area wide. The lowest gust maxima near 30 mph seen in the HRRR from perpetual WAA to the highest maxima near 50 mph in the ARW.
High temperatures in the low to mid 80s are expected across the area this afternoon, with the warmest temperatures expected across eastern metro areas. Any thunderstorm development and potential stronger storms will be highly dependent on the placement and timing of the low/front and main slug of precip, but for right now thunder chances remain highest across the far southern peninsula and across the keys.
Today's cold front packed a punch and brought in much cooler temps. Looking at current observations, most all sites are either right at or below freezing with dew points in the 20s. There is still quite a breeze going on out there, too, so that's making it feel even cooler. Highs will struggle to reach 40 and lows will be in the low 20s to upper 10s. Take your proper cold weather precautions both tonight and Sunday night! Winds will be breezy through the afternoon which, again, will make the already-cold temperatures feel that much cooler, so keep a coat handy today if you're out.
A weak cold front sags into the region as all this shower activity is expected to spread Sward over the entire CWA by this afternoon and continuing through tonight and into Sunday. A cold front will sink south over the Florida peninsula today with scattered showers and cooler temperatures advecting across the area in the wake of the front. The area of low pressure will ride east northeast along the frontal boundary and will move across south Florida on Sunday with an increase in areal coverage/intensity of rainfall across west central and southwest Florida. The low pressure system will exit east of Florida Sunday night with rain ending late.
1139 AM CST Sat Feb 17 2024 Cold air advection will continue through tonight as high pressure builds in the wake of last night's cold frontal passage. Satellite imagery this morning shows a nice baroclinic leaf structure associated with a low pressure system over northern Mexico and upper-level warm advection over the Gulf Coast. Frost is possible tonight into Sunday morning as skies begin to clear and lighter winds arrive with the core of high pressure. A highly amplified trough over eastern North America is allowing a cold polar airmass to surge into our region this morning. Clouds should decrease tonight and allow temperatures to fall to below freezing for nearly all of the area, and lower/mid 20s readings are likely over north central MS.
Cold air advection will continue through tonight as high pressure builds in the wake of last night's cold frontal passage. Satellite imagery this morning shows a nice baroclinic leaf structure associated with a low pressure system over northern Mexico and upper-level warm advection over the Gulf Coast. Frost is possible tonight into Sunday morning as skies begin to clear and lighter winds arrive with the core of high pressure. A highly amplified trough over eastern North America is allowing a cold polar airmass to surge into our region this morning. Clouds should decrease tonight and allow temperatures to fall to below freezing for nearly all of the area, and lower/mid 20s readings are likely over north central MS.
(18Z TAFS) Conditions at 17z varied from low to mid MVFR across most of the forecast area, with IFR conditions along the coast, closer to a cold front moving south across our Gulf waters. Isentropic upglide rain showers over and just north of the cold front (including portions of the Florida panhandle) will shift south with the front, leaving land portions of the forecast area dry by this evening. Strong northerly flow behind the front will usher in a cooler, drier airmass, with temperatures dropping to below seasonal norms. Tonight, temperatures across the forecast area drop into the low 30s north of Highway 84 to near 40 near the coast.
1124 AM CST Sat Feb 17 2024 - Single digit wind chills this morning along and north of the Highway 60 corridor. This combination will drive wind chills into the single digits along and north of the Highway 60 corridor early this morning. Scattered low clouds will persist through much of the morning before clearing in the afternoon as much drier air filters into the area and the low-level moisture diminishes. The primary concern Sunday will be some elevated grass fire danger in the afternoon given the warmer temperatures, dry airmass, and west winds of 10-20 mph.
(Tonight through Sunday night) Key Messages: - Medium to high chance of brief freezing temperatures tonight - Breezy conditions continue A chilly day is unfolding across the region with temperatures currently in the mid to upper 40s along with a breezy northerly wind. There is a medium to high (50-80% chance) of some locations seeing freezing temps tonight, generally across our northern counties in the typical drainage areas. Will opt for an SPS to handle it tonight as the freezing temps will not be widespread and will only last for a short time. Highs tomorrow will remain in the cooler side as high pressure takes control.
1117 AM CST Sat Feb 17 2024 (Today through Sunday) Key Messages: - Breezy today behind the cold front - Medium chance of freezing temps Sunday morning MSAS indicates the cold front we've been watching is currently draped over South Texas. Cooler temperatures are expected today with highs expected in the upper 40s to mid 50s. A few areas could experience freezing temperatures overnight, particularly in the normal drainage areas. With the sunshine finally returning, expect to see warmer temperatures on Sunday, with highs in the mid 50s to low 60s.
1107 AM CST Sat Feb 17 2024 - Cooler than normal today with highs in the 30s.
AC3 Cold conditions will prevail across the Midsouth today, as Arctic high pressure settles into the region.
1143 AM CST Sat Feb 17 2024 (The rest of today ) A rather chilly day is expected across eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas as high pressure continues to build into the region in the wake of yesterday's cold front.
1119 AM CST Sat Feb 17 2024 As of 10:45 AM today, temperatures are slowly rising into the lower 40s under mostly cloudy skies. /16/ (Saturday through Sunday) The potent cold front continues to clear the region, with stiff cold air advection working in behind it. The clearing clouds will also allow for some radiational cooling potential overnight, as lows are anticipated to drop below freezing for a large portion of the area. Temperatures will once again likely be below freezing for most of the region. However, temperatures will begin to warm from there, as upper-level ridging will slowly begin to work into the region.
358 PM EST Sat Feb 17 2024 High pressure will result in dry conditions across the area through the early part of the week. Tight pressure gradient between low pressure passing across the upper Great Lakes and high pressure centered to the southwest will result in gusty winds on Sunday. Winds will diminish fairly quickly late in the day as the low moves east and the pressure gradient relaxes. The high will build in Sunday night.
In the wake of yesterday's cold front, cold air advection will continue today, resulting in well below normal temperatures across the area. High temperatures will only be in the 40s today, ranging from the lower 40s across the Big Country, to the low to mid 40s elsewhere. A few readings in the lower 20s are possible in some of the more sheltered areas. (Sunday night through next Saturday) Despite the very cold temperatures Sunday morning, temperatures will be warming nicely the rest of the week, with a broad upper ridging developing over the region and Central United States.
(The rest of today ) A rather chilly day is expected across eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas as high pressure continues to build into the region in the wake of yesterday's cold front.
A warm front will approach the region today, with increasing clouds and increasing E-SE surface winds. Precipitation with the associated warm front will reach southcentral and southeast OR late this afternoon and spread into southwest Idaho during the evening. The warm front will bring several hours of precipitation before tapering off by midday on Sunday.
Meanwhile, analysis charts indicate that the cold front that moved through overnight stalled across the local Atlantic waters and south-central Florida with northerly winds behind the front across areas mainly north of Melbourne and south-southwest winds across the Treasure Coast. There's a wide spread in temperatures this morning with the low 50s to low 60s north of the aforementioned boundary and the mid 60s to mid 70s to south. Boating conditions will be poor and choppy with a cold front stalled across the local Atlantic waters.
1020 AM EST Sat Feb 17 2024 An area of low pressure will strengthen off the Mid-Atlantic coast today, with a dry cold front pushing through eastern NC this morning. Low pressure will continue to move through VA this morning, strengthening off the Mid- Atlantic coast today, while attendant cold front pushes through eastern NC this morning and offshore by 16z. High pressure will build in from the west as much cooler and drier air moves into the Carolinas. Cloud cover should limit radiational cooling, but still looks like a cool night with most areas falling below freezing, upper 20s and low 30s. This low will remain well offshore, reaching our latitude Tues night.
1112 AM CST Sat Feb 17 2024 (Rest of Today) Temps will struggle to rebound later today following the passage of a cold front last night. Current temps are predom in the lower 30s/near 30F. However, with north winds around 10-15 MPH with higher gusts, wind chills are currently in the lower 20s. Even with some breaks in the clouds, highs later today will struggle to surpass the upper 30s in southern mid TN and the lower 40s in north AL, given the continued influx of cooler air.
1059 AM CST Sat Feb 17 2024 (Today through Sunday) A cold front is currently bisecting the area this morning, with light rain ahead and behind the front. As we work past sunrise on Sunday, clouds will finish clearing in the southeast as high pressure builds in.
Stubborn moderate southerly breezes persisting along our marine observation platforms on the reef have shutdown convective development and cleared out a majority of the low level clouds over the Straits and the island chain. Temperatures in the island communities are either just shy off or about 80 degrees with a few outliers in the lower 80s. While dewpoints have decreased a touch, they still are in the lower to mid 70s giving the feeling that wet season could be just around the corner. As high pressure in the western North Atlantic slides east, our southerly breezes will lull.
(Rest of today through Sunday) An approaching cold front will drive an increase in shower and thunderstorm chances tonight into Sunday. Overnight lows will remain fairly mild ranging from the upper 50s in Glades County to the lower 70s right along the Atlantic coast.
Daytime temperatures have been cooler than guidance in many valleys south and east of Missoula where expansive snow cover exists. There is a slight chance (10-20%) of light freezing rain for the lowest elevations of north-central Idaho.
Thermal trough to remain firmly entrenched today especially across the Plateau through the late afternoon. Today's cold front packed a punch and brought in much cooler temps. Looking at current observations, most all sites are either right at or below freezing with dew points in the 20s. There is still quite a breeze going on out there, too, so that's making it feel even cooler. Highs will struggle to reach 40 and lows will be in the low 20s to upper 10s. Take your proper cold weather precautions both tonight and Sunday night! Winds will be breezy through the afternoon which, again, will make the already-cold temperatures feel that much cooler, so keep a coat handy today if you're out.
205 PM EST Sat Feb 17 2024 A cold front will move through the area early this morning, followed by cooler conditions.
A bit windy Sunday before high pressure builds into the new work week, with a warming trend. Expanding high pressure across the Southern Plains will eventually shift winds more westerly this afternoon cutting off any additional moisture advection with any remaining snow showers dissipating by this evening. As we head into the latter half of the overnight, will begin to see this westerly flow increase in advance of arctic low pressure sliding south of James Bay. Warm advection with this should yield some warming on hills and ridgetops heading into daybreak.
May see some intermittent sprinkles along and south of I-10, but this will diminish this afternoon as the cold front pushes further southeast. High temperatures have already occurred earlier this morning in the 50s, as the continued cold air advection has dropped temperatures into the lower to upper 40s areawide, and likely to remain nearly steady throughout the remainder of the afternoon.
This morning's 12z sounding reported falling heights at all levels as mean layer ridging in the Caribbean continues to retreat east. Despite the associated high pressure in the western North Atlantic progged to follow suit, moderate southerly breezes stubbornly persist along the Reef track. Our southerly breezes are still expected to slacken throughout today as high pressure in the Atlantic continues to slide east. Small Craft Advisories may be required Sunday for all Florida Keys coastal waters due to increasing winds associated with the approach of an oncoming cold front. From synopsis, gentle to moderate south to southwest breezes this afternoon and tonight will become fresh to strong on Sunday, as a cold front approaches the Florida Keys coastal waters.
Winds subside to start the upcoming week as high pressure builds into the area.
The boundary is very slowly inching Sward as a cold front moves into N FL and the C Gulf through the rest of the afternoon into evening hours.
1124 AM CST Sat Feb 17 2024 As of 10:45 AM today, temperatures are slowly rising into the lower 40s under mostly cloudy skies. /16/ (Saturday through Sunday) The potent cold front continues to clear the region, with stiff cold air advection working in behind it. The clearing clouds will also allow for some radiational cooling potential overnight, as lows are anticipated to drop below freezing for a large portion of the area. Temperatures will once again likely be below freezing for most of the region. However, temperatures will begin to warm from there, as upper-level ridging will slowly begin to work into the region.
A bit windy Sunday before high pressure builds into the new work week, with a warming trend. Thus through 00z there was a fair amount of manual edits to better reflect the current situation and also the expected continuance of shower activity in the lowlands this afternoon, and in the mountains into the evening hours. Any sheltered locations that manage to decouple and go calm could be cooler. Southwesterly winds will strengthen around or after sunrise, with gusts in the lower elevations of 15 to 25 mph, and ridgetop gusts of 30 to 40 mph will be possible in the northern mountains.
1252 PM EST Sat Feb 17 2024 High pressure will slowly nose into the region this afternoon and the persist through the rest of the weekend. The pressure gradient tightens between this high and a disturbance moving thru the northern Great Lakes. Highs to range from the upper 30s north to the lower and middle 40s south.
(This evening through Sunday night) 19z WV satellite shows an upper wave over SE CO, an upper ridge trying to build over the intermountain west, and a wave over CA. Sunday, as CA upper wave moves over CO, modest lee troughing will occur to our north.
A good fetch of subtropical moisture (generally above 500 mb) should keep the high cloud cover going into tomorrow. Still, freezing or near freezing temperatures (25 to 35 degrees) are likely for most of northern and central Georgia by Sunday morning.
922 PM EST Sat Feb 17 2024 High pressure builds into the area from the south and west tonight.
---BMickelson Previous discussion: Upper ridging will lend to a warm and dry weather pattern through the week ahead.
323 PM EDT Sat Oct 12 2024 - Pattern Change Toward Cooler and Showery Weather Weather more typical of October is on the way as a 130 kt upper level jet diving in from the northwest carves out a deep upper trough over the GrtLks Rgn. A wave of low pressure tracks from srn Iowa to nrn Ohio along that frontal zone tonight. Once those showers/storms exit later tonight we go into a bit of lull until more showers develop Sunday afternoon with the arrival of the upper low/trough. The deeper moisture departs late Sunday night as the upper low pulls way.
(Through Tonight) Near record high temperatures for this afternoon across the region with widespread temps in the low to mid 90s. Cooler conditions are expected behind the front Sunday afternoon, but temperatures are still forecast to climb into the 90s south of the front across southeast Oklahoma and into west-central Arkansas.
1135 AM CDT Sat Oct 12 2024 (Today through Sunday Night) An upper ridge continues centered over the southwest U. An upper low will develop in the Great Lakes Sunday.
North of I-80 cooler with temps in the 70s. A cold front was found just north of the CWA this AM. With substantial dry air in the low levels in place have decided to trim pops and keep on schc pops in the very eastern CWA. Sunday, the high pressure starts to really move into the area leading to chilly and windy day with highs 15 to 20 degrees cooler than the day before.
(Tonight through Sunday night) Quiet weather conditions will generally persist through the short- term cycle as ridging remains in control aloft. Otherwise, expect temperatures to fall into the low to mid 60s tonight and Sunday night, with highs warming into the mid 80s to mid 90s range on Sunday.
- Marked change becoming more likely for the latter half of the week, with much cooler temperatures and actual precipitation. Early periods will continue to be influenced mainly by the persistent H5 ridge across the west.
The aforementioned showers and thunderstorms are part of a a pseudo warm front aloft that is lifting northward along with a ridge centered in the western Caribbean.
pdf Upper trough moves over the forecast Tonight, but will act on a dry environment, thus producing little weather.
728 PM EDT Sat Oct 12 2024 - Pattern Change Toward Cooler and Showery Weather Weather more typical of October is on the way as a 130 kt upper level jet diving in from the northwest carves out a deep upper trough over the GrtLks Rgn. A wave of low pressure tracks from srn Iowa to nrn Ohio along that frontal zone tonight. Once those showers/storms exit later tonight we go into a bit of lull until more showers develop Sunday afternoon with the arrival of the upper low/trough. The deeper moisture departs late Sunday night as the upper low pulls way.