Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
with the highest probability of damaging wind gusts and hail focused along and northwest of a Jacksonville to Bloomington line.
(Today) Upper ridge continues to expand back to west, resulting in a broad area of ridging that will be situated over the southern plains today. Proximity of ridge will lead to warmer temperatures today.
A cold front will move through Sunday, bringing with it showers and storms.
With a broad upper-level ridge across the Southeast, the Bermuda High has settled in to the east. Scattered to numerous mainly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms are expected each day as high pressure remains in control. There will most certainly be a window for on- station impacts at most sites, but immediate coastal terminals around Tampa Bay have the lowest confidence and certainty for when that window will be.
In the upper levels, there is a large ridge over southern CONUS with zonal flow over the region. A trough resides over western CONUS with a weak jet max rounding the base of the trough (winds up to 70 knots). As a result of the low to our west and the high to our southeast, southerly winds have lead to modest warm and moist air advection. This highlighted in high temperatures forecasted to be in the 90s and dew point temperatures in the low to mid 70s. As the high pressure stagnates in the south east, expect temperatures to slowly increase over the next few days. The associated cold front has a northeast/southwest orientation and extends from southeast NE through the OK panhandle.
There will most certainly be a window for on- station impacts at most sites, but immediate coastal terminals around Tampa Bay have the lowest confidence and certainty for when that window will be.
Discussion: Upper ridging will largely remain in control of the weather across the southeast during the short term, though it will weaken and shift slightly westward in response to a weak wave moving through the central plains and upper midwest. With the ridge further weakening today, expect the upward trend in cloud cover and shower activity to continue today. Some of the CAM guidance shows very high PoPs (upwards of 60 percent) over the higher terrain of the plateau and Appalachians.
Highs will reach the lower 90s over most of NE FL and inland SE GA, with slightly cooler temperatures near the Georgia coast due to increased cloud cover from the weak tropical low.
Current surface map places weak high across the Dakotas with trough moving through eastern Montana. Water vapor shows mid level trough from eastern Montana into the Nebraska Panhandle. Flat upper ridge sets up across the area Sunday with low level thermal ridge surging northward and will be the first of several days with highs around or above 90F.
1124 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024 (Tonight) A strong ridge of high pressure at the sfc remains layered across much of the region, as lingering clouds continue to diminish this Fri evening. Current temp trends are mainly in the lower/mid 80s although with dew pts in the mid 60s/near 70F, overnight lows look to fall predom into the upper 60s/lower 70s for most spots. Otherwise, mostly clear/quiet wx conditions look to prevail into the daytime hrs Sat as high pressure remains intact over the mid TN Valley.
1158 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024 (This evening through Saturday night) Impressively strong upper level ridge centered around TN encompasses nearly 2/3's of the country. The ridge has been and will continue to drive drier air into the region as the afternoon and evening progresses. Models show the center of the broad ridge to be just north of the CWA midday Saturday.
1226 AM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024 Ridging at the sfc & aloft continue to build in, with RAP/evening 00Z upper air analysis indicate 595DM H5 ridge centered over the the Mid-South. /DC/ Tonight and Saturday: Deep layer ridging will continue over our region during the near term.
317 AM EDT Sat Jun 22 2024 The heat wave continues today courtesy of a broad upper level ridge. A cold front crosses Sunday night, bringing showers and storms to the area, and an end to the heat wave. A ridge of high pressure will continue to provide above normal temperatures across the area. Although the airports have not been hitting Heat Advisory criteria, some of the warmer valleys have been, especially in cities. Therefore, will continue the Heat Advisory for the lowlands. Temperatures across the lowlands will be in the upper 80s to lower 90s, with heat indices in the same ballpark. PoPs increase to 60 to 80 percent likelihood by early Sunday evening as the cold front pushes through.
616 AM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024 (Today through Sunday Night) An upper level ridge will be over Arkansas today and centered over Texas on Sunday. A cold front will be able to move into north Arkansas Sunday afternoon. Highs today will be in the upper 80s to mid 90s and Sunday will be in the lower 90s to near 100 degrees. Some dew points will climb into the lower 70s Sunday, increasing the heat indices slightly. Lows tonight will be in the lower to mid 70s and in the 70s Sunday night.
With a broad upper-level ridge across the Southeast, the Bermuda High has settled in to the east. Scattered to numerous mainly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms are expected each day as high pressure remains in control.
650 AM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024 (Today through Sunday night) A broad upper level ridge of high pressure will dominate the weather pattern across the region through Sunday night. This translates to warmer temperatures today and Sunday compared to the past few days. A very weak surface trof is expected to establish itself from southwest to northeast and bisecting the forecast area. Storm potential and coverage will likely diminish and may be more confined to the far western sections of the OK and TX Panhandles Sunday afternoon and evening as the previously mentioned weak surface trof dissipates.
604 AM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024 (Today through Sunday afternoon) The warmer and drier trend will continue into today. Upper ridging continues to retrograde west across the region and strong subsidence will keep any chance for rain in the Davis Mountains if we even see that.
841 AM EDT Sat Jun 22 2024 The heat wave continues today courtesy of a broad upper level ridge. A cold front crosses Sunday night, bringing showers and storms to the area, and an end to the heat wave. A ridge of high pressure will continue to provide above normal temperatures across the area. Although the airports have not been hitting Heat Advisory criteria, some of the warmer valleys have been, especially in cities. Therefore, will continue the Heat Advisory for the lowlands. Temperatures across the lowlands will be in the upper 80s to lower 90s, with heat indices in the same ballpark. PoPs increase to 60 to 80 percent likelihood by early Sunday evening as the cold front pushes through.
607 AM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024 (Today and tonight) High pressure continues to slowly build back over West Central Texas, which will generally bring warmer and drier conditions to the area.
A ridge of high pressure will bring mainly rain free weather and very hot temperatures in the middle 90s to the Mid-South this afternoon.
Otherwise as we realize daytime heating we should see convection blow up over the interior areas and move back toward the coast around the low over coastal Georgia.
615 AM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024 A ridge of high pressure will bring mainly rain free weather and very hot temperatures in the middle 90s to the Mid-South this afternoon.
(Rest of Today) Hot and mostly sunny conditions are still expected today as a deep sub-tropical ridge continues to hold sway across the region.
600 AM EDT Sat Jun 22 2024 The heat wave continues today courtesy of a broad upper level ridge. A cold front crosses Sunday night, bringing showers and storms to the area, and an end to the heat wave. A ridge of high pressure will continue to provide above normal temperatures across the area. Although the airports have not been hitting Heat Advisory criteria, some of the warmer valleys have been, especially in cities. Therefore, will continue the Heat Advisory for the lowlands. Temperatures across the lowlands will be in the upper 80s to lower 90s, with heat indices in the same ballpark. PoPs increase to 60 to 80 percent likelihood by early Sunday evening as the cold front pushes through.
These are expected to move to out by late morning - A low pressure system and cold front will trigger additional showers and thunderstorms this morning over central South Dakota. A pleasant overnight follows with mostly clear skies and lows in the lower 60s. SUNDAY: For Sunday, a weak high pressure ridge builds in from the west.
550 AM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024 (Today through Sunday) A strong 596 DAM H5 ridge stretches from the Tennessee River Valley westward to the TX Panhandle this morning. At the surface, high pressure will be in control and should continue to limit surface winds across the region. With higher heights and thicknesses, expect above average temperatures with most locations climbing into the middle and upper 90s with heat index values warming into the lower to mid 100s or just shy of heat advisory thresholds.
618 AM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024 (Today) Upper ridge continues to expand back to west, resulting in a broad area of ridging that will be situated over the southern plains today. Proximity of ridge will lead to warmer temperatures today.
Today and Sunday The big weather story through the weekend will be the heat! The area will reside on the northern edge of a building ridge of high pressure across the western U. Thanks to the strong ridge, precipitation will be non-existent and we'll be hard pressed to find much in the way of clouds either. Expecting daytime highs to top out in the 90s today in the Magic Valley and lower Snake Plain with 80s across the higher terrain. Sunday the heat goes up a few more degrees with mid 90s more the norm across the lower elevations. In addition to the heat, winds will become breezy on Sunday as the gradient tightens between the ridge to out south.
(Today through Sunday night) A broad upper level ridge of high pressure will dominate the weather pattern across the region through Sunday night. This translates to warmer temperatures today and Sunday compared to the past few days. A very weak surface trof is expected to establish itself from southwest to northeast and bisecting the forecast area. Storm potential and coverage will likely diminish and may be more confined to the far western sections of the OK and TX Panhandles Sunday afternoon and evening as the previously mentioned weak surface trof dissipates.
Once again, strong high pressure ridging (both at the sfc and aloft) will allow for hot and dry weather conditions through the afternoon. Strong high pressure, both at the surface and aloft, will remain in control of the weather across the region through tonight. Then for tonight, mostly clear skies will exist as lows fall into the low and middle 70s.
Warmer conditions can be expected today with highs in the 80s most places. Lingering cyclonic flow from an area of low pressure crossing southern Canada may bring a few isolated showers or thunderstorms (20% chance) to the southern mountains and northeastern areas this afternoon. Sunday is expected to be hot, with many locations forecast to reach the upper 90s to near 100 degrees as ridging builds overhead and 700 mb temperatures warm towards 15-18 degrees C.
A ridge of high pressure aloft will shift east of the region today. An upper level trough moving onshore over British Columbia on Sunday will lead to cloudier and cooler conditions along with a few showers across mainly northern portions of Western Washington.
555 AM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024 (Today through Sunday) The center of the Subtropical Ridge drifts to the west over Texas today and Sunday while another tropical disturbance approaches the northeastern Mexico coast on Sunday. NHC has a 50% chance of tropical cyclone development. The airmass is subsident underneath the Ridge with most areas remaining rain free.
540 AM MDT Sat Jun 22 2024 - The overall weather pattern will begin to trend towards a warmer and drier one starting today. The weekend starts pleasant with seasonable temperatures and mostly clear skies, as a potent area of high pressure builds back into the region.
1004 AM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024 (Today through Sunday Night) An upper level ridge will be over Arkansas today and centered over Texas on Sunday. A cold front will be able to move into north Arkansas Sunday afternoon. Highs today will be in the upper 80s to mid 90s and Sunday will be in the lower 90s to near 100 degrees. Some dew points will climb into the lower 70s Sunday, increasing the heat indices slightly. Lows tonight will be in the lower to mid 70s and in the 70s Sunday night.
208 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024 Quiet conditions will continue heading into tonight as global guidance continues to highlight strong mid/upper ridging across our forecast area. Although the area will remain on the eastern periphery of strong mid/upper ridging, low level flow will become more southerly, with increasing low level moisture beginning Sunday afternoon.
(Thru Tonight) Another hot and humid day is ongoing beneath ridging aloft. The breezy southwest winds ahead of a weak cold front across KS may be helping with the heat. Lacy (Sunday through Saturday) A sw-ne oriented low level thermal ridge is extending east into the lower Plains ahead of the weak front today and will drop south over the forecast area on Sunday.
(This evening through Sunday Night) An upper level ridge will build into the South Central CONUS as we close out the weekend, bringing about a generally benign pattern to the region characterized by hot and humid weather with daily chances of diurnally driven sowers and thunderstorms.
pdf Drier air on the west side of the low just north of the Altamaha River in Liberty County have really limited land based convection with drier continental airmass and subsidence with most convection being maritime based. This low is forecast to remain stationary or meander very slowly around the area with a slight drift to the west for the next 18 hours depending on the model. With the low in the vicinity of interior SE GA another convective area may develop toward daybreak on the east side of the inland low with PWATs between 1.
As upper-level ridging continues to build over the Plains today, mostly sunny skies will contribute to temperatures maxing out in the low-mid 90s, with temperatures flirting with triple digits in portions of western Pawnee and Osage counties. Mejia (Today) Upper ridge continues to expand back to west, resulting in a broad area of ridging that will be situated over the southern plains today. Proximity of ridge will lead to warmer temperatures today.
(Rest of today through Sunday Night) Hot and humid is the main weather story today and tomorrow thanks to an upper level ridge of high pressure overhead. On Sunday into Sunday night, a weak cold front will move across the area bringing a better albeit still low chance for showers and storms across the midstate.
Today will be the warmest day of the year so far with some places exceeding 100F in the lower valleys.
1223 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024 A ridge of high pressure will bring mainly rain free weather and very hot temperatures in the middle 90s to the Mid-South this afternoon.
The main story on Sunday will be the building heat courtesy of the persistent strong midlevel ridge sprawled across the southern US. Though it will begin retrograding a bit further on Sunday as a trough begins to dig from the Great Lakes into the Northeast US, high temperatures will warm a few degrees as compared to today. By Sunday night, the aforementioned trough swinging into the Northeast will nudge a very weak cold front into north Georgia.
1221 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024 (Today through Sunday Night) An upper level ridge will be over Arkansas today and centered over Texas on Sunday. A cold front will be able to move into north Arkansas Sunday afternoon. Highs today will be in the upper 80s to mid 90s and Sunday will be in the lower 90s to near 100 degrees. Some dew points will climb into the lower 70s Sunday, increasing the heat indices slightly. Lows tonight will be in the lower to mid 70s and in the 70s Sunday night.
1257 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024 (Today through Sunday) The center of the Subtropical Ridge drifts to the west over Texas today and Sunday while another tropical disturbance approaches the northeastern Mexico coast on Sunday. NHC has a 50% chance of tropical cyclone development. The airmass is subsident underneath the Ridge with most areas remaining rain free.
1212 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024 (Rest of Today) Hot and mostly sunny conditions are still expected today as a deep sub-tropical ridge continues to hold sway across the region.
The thermal trough will weaken today, but steep seas will persist south of Cape Blanco into this afternoon. Sunday evening, the thermal trough will begin to build again and steep to very steep seas are again expected. Steep, advisory seas are possible for a wide area south of Cape Blanco, with the highest confidence area for very steep seas being south of Brookings.
1236 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024 (Rest of today through Sunday Night) Hot and humid is the main weather story today and tomorrow thanks to an upper level ridge of high pressure overhead. On Sunday into Sunday night, a weak cold front will move across the area bringing a better albeit still low chance for showers and storms across the midstate.
Surface ridging currently over the Mississippi River Valley will continue to gradually shift westward into the Southern Great Plains and nearly directly overhead by tomorrow afternoon, boosting temperature maximums/minimums into the upper 90s (lower 100s)/mid- to-upper 70s.
(This afternoon through Sunday) The center of the elongated ridge is retrograding towards Texas.
1215 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024 (Today through Sunday afternoon) The warmer and drier trend will continue into today. Upper ridging continues to retrograde west across the region and strong subsidence will keep any chance for rain in the Davis Mountains if we even see that.
1211 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024 (Today through Sunday night) A broad upper level ridge of high pressure will dominate the weather pattern across the region through Sunday night. This translates to warmer temperatures today and Sunday compared to the past few days. A very weak surface trof is expected to establish itself from southwest to northeast and bisecting the forecast area. Storm potential and coverage will likely diminish and may be more confined to the far western sections of the OK and TX Panhandles Sunday afternoon and evening as the previously mentioned weak surface trof dissipates.
- A low pressure system and cold front will trigger additional showers and thunderstorms this morning over central South Dakota. A pleasant overnight follows with mostly clear skies and lows in the lower 60s. SUNDAY: For Sunday, a weak high pressure ridge builds in from the west.
The will allow for increasing low level moisture to work its way back into southern portions of our CWA, bringing with it a slight chance for showers and thunderstorms Sunday afternoon, generally along and south of the Highway 90 corridor.
1116 AM MDT Sat Jun 22 2024 - The overall weather pattern will begin to trend towards a warmer and drier one starting today. The weekend starts pleasant with seasonable temperatures and mostly clear skies, as a potent area of high pressure builds back into the region.
201 PM MDT Sat Jun 22 2024 Warmer conditions continue today, with highs in the low 80s across much of the area already.
Hot! Temperatures today hover around 90, but surge Sunday into the mid 90s for many areas under a strong upper ridge.
/NEW/ /Rest of the Afternoon through Sunday/ The upper level ridge will continue building west, becoming centered over North & Central TX this weekend and promoting hot and rain-free conditions. Afternoon highs will be a few degrees warmer than yesterday, climbing into the mid 90s areawide with scattered daytime cumulus and plenty of sunshine. The upper ridge axis will become centered directly overhead by the end of this weekend, and daily high temperatures will steadily trend warmer into the upper 90s while triple-digit readings begin to become more common. Mixing out of dewpoints into the 60s early in the week will hold heat index values largely in the 100-108 degree range, but higher dewpoints in the low to mid 70s arriving towards the midweek period could push heat index values over 110 at times.
215 PM EDT Sat Jun 22 2024 High pressure begins to lose its grip on the region tonight.
(Tonight) A broad sub-tropical ridge is in place across the TN Valley today aiding in the suppression of convection. Otherwise, hot temperatures in the low/mid 90s prevail across the area.
We could possible see some increased swells - in addition to the isolated showers/storms - but the Lower Rio Grande Valley is where the heaviest rain will occur. The Coastal Flood Advisory will continue through Sunday, along with the high risk of rip currents. Temperatures will continue to be near normal for this time of year (upper 80s/low-90s) with heat indices getting back into the low 100s Sunday afternoon.
(This evening through Sunday) A weak cold front will move into far northwest Oklahoma late this afternoon.
Hot conditions will persist into the beginning of the week as an upper level ridge remains parked over Texas.
Water will cover some of the lowest lying roads around Bay St.
1205 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024 (Today and tonight) High pressure continues to slowly build back over West Central Texas, which will generally bring warmer and drier conditions to the area.
Upper level ridging currently over the lower Mississippi River Valley will continue to shift west tonight and will settle over central Texas on Sunday. A minor short wave moving over top the ridge on Sunday will bring a slight weakness in the height fields from northeastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle. Otherwise, the increase in heights/thickness values aloft will bring warmer temperatures to the region on Sunday.
250 PM MDT Sat Jun 22 2024 Drier and warmer conditions will continue to move into the area overnight tonight.
1223 PM MDT Sat Jun 22 2024 -Much warmer to start the week with warm conds continuing through most of the work week. Upper level ridge will breakdown in the eastern CONUS, and build over the western/central CONUS this week. Large scale ridging will ensue Sun with hot temps in NE WY where westerly flow will ensue. Otherwise, much warmer across western SD as well, but easterly flow should limit temps to the upper 80s lower 90s.
224 PM MDT Sat Jun 22 2024 - Warmer and drier trend starting today, but cannot rule out gusty winds with high-based storms in the afternoon near the CO/WY border.
354 PM PDT Sat Jun 22 2024 A dry cold front on Sunday will create elevated to critical fire weather concerns over portions of central and eastern Washington with widespread breezy to windy conditions.
Temperatures will rise around 10 to 15 degrees above average this afternoon and Sunday with widespread triple digit highs across the lower elevations.
Temperatures are in the low to mid 80s with dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s. The latest surface analysis places a 1003mb low over Lake Michigan with a cold front extending southwest into Cedar Rapids, Iowa back through Topeka, Kansas and into Cherokee, Oklahoma. The aforementioned cold front will arrive in the Mid-South within the next 12-18 hours. AC3 Hot conditions will persist into the beginning of the week as an upper level ridge remains parked over Texas.
However, warm temperatures will persist across the higher elevations where temperatures will only dip into the upper 60's to upper 70's. Low clouds and/or fog will also return to the region this evening, yet will penetrate less inland overnight as high pressure continues to compresses the marine layer. Cooler conditions will prevail near the coast with upper 50's to upper 60's, 70's just inland away from the immediate coastline, and low-to-mid 70's to low 80's around the bayshore.
530 PM MDT Sat Jun 22 2024 - Warmer and drier trend starting today, but cannot rule out gusty winds with high-based storms in the afternoon near the CO/WY border.