Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1058 PM CST Fri Dec 27 2024 The evening sfc analysis indicates a developing warm front that has recently moved inland across the middle and upper TX coast into S LA. This front will also focus the potential for isolated -SHRA development near and to the S over Lower E TX/N LA, especially as low level moisture deepens and large scale forcing begins to increase by daybreak Saturday ahead of the deepening upper trough that will enter the Srn Plains. The approaching trough will also help to enhance the SSWrly LLJ, with convection expected to quickly increase shortly after daybreak especially along/N of the front. However, as the warm/more unstable air begins to spread N later in the morning into the afternoon, the convection should become more sfc based, especially as large scale ascent increases with the approach of the trough.
100 AM EST Sat Dec 28 2024 * Pockets of light freezing rain possible late tonight into early Saturday over north-central and northeast PA.
701 AM EST Sat Dec 28 2024 (Today through Sunday) A strong area of low pressure is forecast to deepen across the Southern Gulf coast states early this weekend which will enhance moisture transport across South Florida through the weekend. On Sunday, the aforementioned low pressure system will begin to lift towards the northeast which will bring its associated frontal boundary closer to the Florida peninsula.
Mild temperatures to rise to highs ranging from the upper 50s to the lower 60s. With favorable lift developing ahead of the low level jet - precipitation will begin over the southwest by late evening - overspreading the area overnight. Showers will continue with the threat for embedded thunder mainly along and east of I-71 ahead of a surface cold front. Westerly winds should be fairly gusty to start the night before the low pulls further northeast thereby relaxing the pressure gradient over the Ohio Valley late.
- Another 1-2 inches of rain is expected over the next 24 hours, with the highest amounts expected across the far northwest.
If/when fog develops temperatures in W/C MN may support freezing fog potential tonight.
537 AM CST Sat Dec 28 2024 - A cold front is expected this morning with little change other than a wind shift and slightly cooler afternoon highs.
648 AM CST Sat Dec 28 2024 (Today through Sunday Night) Widespread fog, dense at times, will prevail through this morning as the warm moist flow continues at the lower/mid levels across the FA. But the main forecast issue for today is going to be the possibility of strong to severe thunderstorms with the passage of a strong short wave and its associated cold front. with the strong more organized activity likely over the lower Mississippi Valley/Gulf Coast states through this evening. Convection will be ending with the passage of the cold front by this evening. Cooler/drier air should make its way into the area tonight.
224 AM PST Sat Dec 28 2024 An upper ridge will build from the southwest over the weekend, bringing mild temperatures and a shallow marine layer with the potential for dense fog in the coastal areas.
Gusty winds remain present aloft, keeping overnight lows slightly warmer across higher elevation location. A northwest flow aloft will remain across Arizona today from high pressure building across California, and a sweeping trough across much of the central/eastern US.
714 AM EST Sat Dec 28 2024 Upper ridging from the N Carib Nward to along the Eastern Seaboard to slide into the W Atlantic today through this weekend as upper trough lifts from the S Plains this this morning to the Great Lakes Sunday. Bermuda high pressure ridge axis to keep the warm and moist atmosphere over the local area with another morning of fog and low clouds today. A cold front weakens and moves through the area on Sunday bringing a increasing PoPs with showers and isolated thunderstorms to the FL Peninsula Sunday.
Dew points will remain in the low to mid 70s through tomorrow. Shower coverage and breezes are forecast to decrease Sunday night as high pressure over the western North Atlantic weakens.
Freezing fog may occur over portions of central Wisconsin. Issued 350 AM CST Sat Dec 28 2024 Today through Sunday: Areas of Drizzle have lingered this morning mainly over southern WI as the southern reaches of the TROWAL wrap around the upper level low. Conditions should then remain largely dry after dawn as weak high pressure moves in behind the low. We won't see a push of cold air behind the departing low pressure and temperatures will remain mild today. The fog may grow dense in spots and overnight lows below freezing in central WI, may allow for freezing fog. Sunday, SE WI will receive a glancing blow from a low pressure that will move from the Ohio River Valley to Lake Erie.
- A cold front is expected this morning with little change other than a wind shift and slightly cooler afternoon highs.
With favorable lift developing ahead of the low level jet - precipitation will begin over the southwest by late evening - overspreading the area overnight. Showers will continue with the threat for embedded thunder mainly along and east of I-71 ahead of a surface cold front. Westerly winds should be fairly gusty to start the night before the low pulls further northeast thereby relaxing the pressure gradient over the Ohio Valley late.
353 AM CST Sat Dec 28 2024 - Above normal temperatures continue this weekend, with highs ranging mostly from the mid 20s to low 30s north and east, and the low to mid 40s southwest and south central.
A warmer system will brings mainly rainfall to northern NV through Sunday morning.
627 AM CST Sat Dec 28 2024 - Above normal temperatures continue this weekend, with highs ranging mostly from the mid 20s to low 30s north and east, and the low to mid 40s southwest and south central.
These winds will gradually dissipate through the late morning and then become much lighter this afternoon as the ridge starts to push to the east and the gradient weakens. Gusty winds remain present aloft, keeping overnight lows slightly warmer across higher elevation location. A northwest flow aloft will remain across Arizona today from high pressure building across California, and a sweeping trough across much of the central/eastern US.
1246 PM CST Sat Dec 28 2024 - Above normal temperatures continue this weekend, with highs ranging mostly from the mid 20s to low 30s north and east, and the low to mid 40s southwest and south central.
Thereafter, convection will begin to blossom in the warm sector followed by a squall line type feature approaching from the west ahead of a cold front.
Temperatures may get just a tad warmer than midday readings but we are pretty close to our maximums for the day. With favorable lift developing ahead of the low level jet - precipitation will begin over the southwest by late evening - overspreading the area overnight. Showers will continue with the threat for embedded thunder mainly along and east of I-71 ahead of a surface cold front. Westerly winds should be fairly gusty to start the night before the low pulls further northeast thereby relaxing the pressure gradient over the Ohio Valley late.
259 PM CST Sat Dec 28 2024 Forecast discussion for routine afternoon forecast issuance - Areas of dense freezing fog are possible late tonight into Sunday morning, especially in central and north-central Wisconsin. In addition to visibility reduced to less than one- half mile, untreated roads, bridges and overpasses could become slippery.
Skies are mostly sunny in eastern ND and in the Red River Valley this morning helping to warm temperatures into the lower 30s in the southern Red River Valley. Other areas temperatures are in the low to mid 20s (towards the Devils Lake Basin).
942 AM CST Sat Dec 28 2024 - Above normal temperatures continue this weekend, with highs ranging mostly from the mid 20s to low 30s north and east, and the low to mid 40s southwest and south central.
Increasing moisture ahead of a cold front will start to increase cloud cover over the area this afternoon and evening with some passing showers from late this afternoon through most of the day tomorrow.
The ridge is starting to push into the Desert Southwest with some high clouds moving through in the northwest flow. The ridge will gradually build over the next several days with well above normal temperatures expected each day.
337 PM EST Sat Dec 28 2024 A strong area of low pressure will track northeast across the region on Sunday.
The upper level low and pseudo-dryline have moved east of our area, resulting in sunny skies and breezy conditions this afternoon. High pressure will build into the area overnight, resulting in sunny skies, light winds, and cool overnight lows in the mid to upper 40s.
but the SFC moisture surge will hold off until around or just after sunrise as a warm front lifts north into SRN AR this Sat. and TSRA across far SRN AR and especially areas south into the warm sector south of the SFC warm front. or along/south of the SFC warm front where SFC based TSRA will be more likely. The tornado threat will remain generally limited to areas along/south of the SFC warm front.
1148 AM CST Sat Dec 28 2024 (Today through Sunday Night) Widespread fog, dense at times, will prevail through this morning as the warm moist flow continues at the lower/mid levels across the FA. But the main forecast issue for today is going to be the possibility of strong to severe thunderstorms with the passage of a strong short wave and its associated cold front. with the strong more organized activity likely over the lower Mississippi Valley/Gulf Coast states through this evening. Convection will be ending with the passage of the cold front by this evening. Cooler/drier air should make its way into the area tonight.
Expect high temperatures to be anywhere from five to ten degrees above normal which will mean readings in the 70s on the lower deserts. Low temperatures will be closer to normal with the lower deserts generally in the 40s. The global ensembles continue to show a pattern of high pressure waxing and waning in both latitude and longitude as waves pass to the north.
1043 AM CST Sat Dec 28 2024 - A cold front is expected this morning with little change other than a wind shift and slightly cooler afternoon highs.
A high pressure system that was just south of New England is weakening and shifting east into the Atlantic. Meanwhile, broad ridging in the mid levels across the Caribbean into the Eastern Seaboard is finally starting to migrate east as the aforementioned trough deepens across the Deep South. Measured rainfall from occasional convective showers was measured in the Lower Keys, but no thunderstorm detections occurred within the marine zones. Breezes will also slacken as the high pressure in the North Atlantic weakens, limiting the wind convergence over the coastal waters. However, the evening of New Year's Day will witness a series of cold frontal boundaries as a drier, continental air mass moves across southern Florida. The strength of the initial cold front is yet to be determined.
Across south Florida, strong low-level easterly flow from the warm Gulf Stream over the cooler land areas is resulting in shallow isentropic ascent which is forcing the shallow westward moving precipitation. However, low level flow will turn S/SW and strong flow from above the Loop Current region of the Gulf will flow over the cooler near shore shelf waters and result in a large area of rainfall with isolated embedded thunderstorms.
A broad ridge is setting up along the Pacific Coast and bringing northwest flow and cirrus clouds this afternoon. The ridge will be staying around for most of the week to keep Southeast Arizona above normal temperatures and dry.
(Tonight through Sunday night) A very potent storm system is ripping into East TX and the Lower Mississippi Valley today, with the parent 500mb trough axis kicking off of the Texas Gulf coast by this afternoon. Highs on Sunday will reach into the low to mid 80s, 10 to 15 degrees above normal, but likely a few degrees below any record highs. Increased swell period and tidal influence within proximity of the new moon phase along the lower Texas coast may push a moderate risk of rip currents through Sunday.
534 PM CST Sat Dec 28 2024 Updated at 149 PM CST Sat Dec 28 2024 - Moderate shower and low thunderstorm chances will continue into this evening from SE OK into NW AR in association with upper low.
- Warmer (mid 40s to mid 50s) and dry for the weekend.
The potential for severe storms should be winding down over east Mississippi by midnight but there will be the chance for rain over east Mississippi until the cold front shifts into Alabama.
An unsettled pattern expected the rest of tonight into tomorrow as a cold front move towards the area. (00Z TAFS) A tricky aviation forecast through the next day as a cold front moving towards the area will bring a more unsettled pattern.
528 PM CST Sat Dec 28 2024 Updated aviation portion for 00Z TAF issuance - Areas of dense freezing fog are possible late tonight into Sunday morning, especially in central and north-central Wisconsin. In addition to visibility reduced to less than one- half mile, untreated roads, bridges and overpasses could become slippery.
This will mean readings mainly in the 70s across the lower deserts. Low temperatures will be closer to normal with the lower deserts generally in the 40s, and mid to upper 30s colder desert locales. The global ensembles continue to show a pattern of high pressure waxing and waning in both latitude and longitude as waves pass to the north.
A warmer system will bring mainly rainfall to northern Nevada through the morning hours tomorrow. Here are some probabilities of seeing maximum temperatures greater than 50 degrees for select locations across northern and central Nevada on Sunday: Austin - 90% Battle Mountain - 96% Elko - 50% Ely - 35% Eureka - 70% Jackpot - 5% Jarbidge - 0% Owyhee - 5% Ruth - 3% Spring Creek - 35% Tonopah - 85% Wells - 20% West Wendover â 60% Wildhorse Res - 0% Winnemucca - 80% By the evening period, colder air will filter in behind a passing cold front.
Light to moderate elevation-dependent rain and snow is ongoing this afternoon across most of the CWA, and this activity (almost a deformation zone) will continue until a warm front lifts northward across southeast Idaho overnight tonight into Sunday morning. Additional rain/snow is likely along the warm front, but with snow levels rising to 6,000 to 7,000 feet behind the front with high temperatures Sunday reaching the upper 30s to upper 40s, so coverage of rain vs.
- A few more showers on NYE and then trending cooler by NYE night with temperatures falling into the 40s. - Turning colder late this week as a stronger cold front moves through.
1054 PM CST Sat Dec 28 2024 The evening satellite imagery indicates the closed low embedded within the upper trough continuing to shift E along the AR/LA border, with the mosaic radar imagery depicting wrap-around -SHRA continuing along the periphery of the closed low. In fact, the earlier wake low that developed across extreme NE TX and rode the AR/LA border has weakened as it exited the area, with sfc winds having relaxed as this trough continues to ease E. Did have to make quite a few changes to pops and wx tonight, mainly to raise pops to likely over SW AR given the extensive wrap-around -SHRA near the upper low center.
While a few short range models have indicated the potential for fog across the north, some of the high clouds moving into the area may help suppress much fog development. This weekend will be the last warm (above freezing) days in the forecast. Sunday should be slightly cooler but still warm, especially southwest.
Kept the mention of rain/freezing rain over the south central for another few hours based on latest radar imagery and trends, in addition to CAM model output. While a few short range models have indicated the potential for fog across the north, some of the high clouds moving into the area may help suppress much fog development. This weekend will be the last warm (above freezing) days in the forecast. Sunday should be slightly cooler but still warm, especially southwest.
- Warmer weather is expected through Monday, followed by a cool- down for New Year's Eve and the opening days of 2025.
Current satellite has a broad area of clearing in eastern North Dakota and northwestern/west central Minnesota bringing plentiful sunshine and warmer temperatures. Temperatures drop quickly in areas of clearing overnight, with portions of the Devils Lake Basin hitting the low to mid teens.
Damaging winds up to 60-70 MPH will be the greatest threat, but given the magnitude of the low-level jet (55-65 knots), sufficient 0-3km shear exists to warrant concern for development of low- level mesocyclones and tornadoes (particularly with surges and breaks in the QLCS).
As the low moves toward the MS River, a polar front will move across the area Monday evening bringing stronger CAA setting the stage for cooler temperatures.
Having said that, slippery surfaces will be a concern given the rain changing to snow, followed by subfreezing temperatures.
- A cold front will intrude upon the region Monday night, knocking temperatures back to below normal New Years Eve and New Years Day. (This afternoon through Sunday night) WV imagery this afternoon shows the upper trough over central Texas, making for a very busy day at WFOs in the central Gulf states. Closer to home, a Pac front of sorts has plowed through the area, and should result in highs a couple of degrees cooler than yesterday. Elevated winds/mixing should keep overnight lows ~ 5 F warmer than tonight.
However, this will be brief as the upper low will swing through tonight into Monday morning, providing more clouds across the area, with the best coverage in the north. Once the low clouds burn off Monday, sunny skies should prevail.
But, the northwest brings just a touch cooler air compared today, and there may be a few more clouds from time-to-time Sunday. The region is in a persistent northwest flow with a bit more ridging toward the end of the week.
- A strong cold front Monday night will bring temperatures back to normal (50s) through the remainder of the week. (This evening through Sunday) A rather sharp trough axis is exiting northwestern Texas early this afternoon. A frontal boundary, driven by the aforementioned trough, has also driven its way through the CWFA with slightly cooler temperatures which won't have too much of a noticable effect on high temperatures later this afternoon but will drop overnight lows maybe about 5 degrees cooler than last night with periods of high cloudiness.
A few additional showers are possible into the daytime hrs, as the cold front sweeps thru the mid TN Valley while the upper trough axis lifts into the OH Valley area. Cloud cover may be slow to diminish though for most of the day, with highs mainly in the lower 60s.
Locations along Highway 212 in eastern South Dakota may see a light glaze of freezing rain. Soundings still show saturation issues in the lower levels. Still quite a bit of mild air in place late Sunday night with soundings still above freezing aloft and potentially even at the surface for southern portions of the CWA. That said, soundings do try to generally show the above-freezing layer aloft cooling towards freezing or below as the lower-levels are becoming saturated. The 12Z WPC guidance has QPF for the Mobridge area, and none for Aberdeen. The wintry weather may bring some minor travel impacts across South Dakota, especially if pockets of freezing rain develops.
There has been practically little change in heights above 850 mb since this morning, similar mid-level temperatures but perhaps a tad cooler 850-700 mb. However, it has been sprinkling through the lower troposphere, thus not surprising. Guidance is showing the southwesterly jet over the eastern Gulf as the deep wave entering the northern Gulf states begins to impinge on the upper anticyclonic flow from a central Caribbean ridge. Breezes are expected to slacken Sunday night as high pressure in the North Atlantic weakens, and shower coverage will rapidly drop by Monday. Light and variable conditions are possible on New Year's Day ahead of a developing cold frontal passage occurring sometime between the evening of New Year's Day.
Updated at 207 AM CST Sun Dec 29 2024 - Warmer weather Sunday and Monday.
The next system is already visible in the form of mid and high clouds streaming out of CO/WY in association with a short wave trough on the nose of a 100kt upper jet streak on the backside of the upper trough. Even if anything did develop temps should remain above freezing and it would be isolated rain showers/sprinkles.
905 PM PST Sat Dec 28 2024 A building high pressure ridge will bring a shallow marine layer, with low clouds and fog to the coastal and western valleys each night and morning through Monday.
Winds aloft will increase on Sunday afternoon as a trough moves by to our north. The ridge is starting to push into the Desert Southwest with some high clouds moving through in the northwest flow. The ridge will gradually build over the next several days with well above normal temperatures expected each day. The ridge starts to break down by Monday, flattening out and becoming zonal across the area for a day or two.
Surface ridging has settled over South Central TX early this morning with an overnight light NW breeze continuing to usher lower dew point temps south and east.
1039 PM CST Sat Dec 28 2024 Updated at 1034 PM CST Sat Dec 28 2024 - Warmer weather Sunday and Monday.
The fog itself could become freezing fog as temperatures drop below freezing, which could cause slick roadways overnight. - Areas of dense freezing fog are possible late tonight into Sunday morning, especially in central and north-central Wisconsin. In addition to visibility reduced to less than one- half mile, untreated roads, bridges and overpasses could become slippery.
In general, sunny with cooler (relative to last couple of days) and drier will hold into Monday.
1010 PM CST Sat Dec 28 2024 The evening satellite imagery indicates the closed low embedded within the upper trough continuing to shift E along the AR/LA border, with the mosaic radar imagery depicting wrap-around -SHRA continuing along the periphery of the closed low. In fact, the earlier wake low that developed across extreme NE TX and rode the AR/LA border has weakened as it exited the area, with sfc winds having relaxed as this trough continues to ease E. Did have to make quite a few changes to pops and wx tonight, mainly to raise pops to likely over SW AR given the extensive wrap-around -SHRA near the upper low center.
There could be a brief SHRA or two Mon night as a cold front pushes SE through the state.
The return of moisture tonight will lead to warmer lows generally in the 50s and a low to medium (30-50%) chance of fog over the inland Coastal Plains into the early morning hours on Monday.
The southwestern United States will be dominated by a ridge and above normal 500mb hghts through much of this period. This will not be a clean ridge and Arizona will reside on the eastern side most of the time, with the axis largely over the eastern Pacific. The first such wave tries to crash the ridge today, bringing breezy conditions to an otherwise warm day.
(Today through Monday) The most recent surface analysis indicates a cold front over the western Gulf of Mexico. Dry weather is progged for the end of the weekend through the start of the new work week for the BRO CWFA as a west-northwest to east-southeast 500 mb flow prevails in the wake of the cold front. In fact, another round of record high temperatures cannot be ruled-out for Monday, as the approach of another cold front from the north and west creates a downsloping effect off of the neighboring higher terrain of Mexico.
Low amplitude NH pattern continues to favor progressive upper level ridging across the eastern Pacific. While this feature has had a remarkable longitudinal extent, a fast moving upper level wave into the PNW today wave will help deamplfy the ridge and confine our warmest period to today. While broad northwest flow aloft follows across the west beginning overnight, the upper ridge will persist and center just west of Baja California through at least mid week.