Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
- Seasonably strong cold front arrives Wednesday PM. On this first day of meteorological fall, a weak upper low remains in place across southern Nebraska, part of broad troughing over the eastern CONUS. This low should gradually drift southeast across the area over the next 12-18 hours. Farther east, thick cloud cover and scattered light showers are keeping temperatures 5-10 degrees cooler, with many spots still stuck in the 60s. Wednesday, a much deeper and larger upper low will drop south out of the Northern Plains, pushing a cold front south through the area.
The fog and clouds will diminish this morning, with warmer afternoon temperatures in the mid to upper 70s forecast.
141 AM EDT Tue Sep 2 2025 - Next Chance for Rain on Wednesday - Upper troughing brings cool, showery weather into the weekend - Next Chance for Rain on Wednesday Despite a highly amplified and somewhat blocky flow regime more typical of autumn than late summer, the models are in a fairly good agreement on the details of the timing of the pattern evolution over the next several days.
- Showers Wednesday night will give way to much cooler temperatures late week through the weekend. The expansive ridge of high pressure will remain in place over the northern Lower Michigan and Lake Huron through Tuesday. Temperatures will moderate on Tuesday, then a bigger push of warm air advection returns to the region ahead of a deepening upper-level trough progged to track across the region later this week. By Wednesday, lagre-scale gradient flow increases with breezy southwest winds ushering in a warmer airmass supporting daytime highs climbing into the low to mid 80s.
A stationary front associated with the this low, extends almost due west across south central Florida and over the Gulf Basin. Given its position, it initially may affect the Lower Keys more than the rest of the Keys for today in terms of rain chances. At the same time, we will remain under a broad trough that is stalled along the Eastern Seaboard.
The only noticeable change aside from the lack of afternoon convection will be slightly cooler lows over the next few mornings. The intermountain heat ridge will continue to weaken as the bigger trough over the eastern half of the country flexes it's fall muscle. Our NW flow of late will continue backing a bit more zonal from the West for this week ahead, but the big trough will deepen again later this weekend with another stronger cold front.
232 AM EDT Tue Sep 2 2025 After a period of cooler days, warmer weather is opening the month of September.
- Below normal temps will remain in place, with a reinforcing shot of cooler air arriving Wed evening. Currently, a large upper trough dominates the eastern half of the country with ridging to our west. For the middle to end of the week, a deep upper-level low pressure system looks to dive into the Great Lakes Region once again. This will send another push of cooler air and rain chances into the Plains.
Another weak trough/surface front resides over the midsouth region, which may get close enough for a shower or two in southwest MS this afternoon during peak heating. The overall synoptic pattern remains unchanged with a large scale trough still residing over the eastern US.
A chance for afternoon showers persists throughout the week, with our highest chances Tuesday and Wednesday afternoon with a broad trough anchored off to our east funneling in a couple of minor disturbances.
A few ripples of vorticity along the mid level trough axis will push through the Tennessee Valley starting tomorrow morning.
Rain chances taper off Tuesday night/Wednesday morning as high pressure pushes into Deep South Texas with the front finally moving south of the region.
1133 PM EDT Mon Sep 1 2025 High pressure will extend across the area through late week. A cold front will approach from the northwest late in the weekend. Tonight: Quiet conditions will continue as a wedge of high pressure at the surface remains centered over the centered over the northeast U. This will keep low level northeast flow, with relatively dry, cooler conditions.
- Below normal temperatures continue Tuesday with a 10-40% chance of showers and thunderstorms (highest in northwest Arkansas) - A cold front late Wednesday brings another shot of cool air and additional rain chances.
242 AM EDT Tue Sep 2 2025 After a period of cooler days, warmer weather is opening the month of September.
1031 PM MDT Mon Sep 1 2025 - Mostly dry weather and gradually warmer temperatures continue through most of the week. There are still a few pockets of wildfire smoke across the north, but with ridge axis continuing to build, the southerly flow developing across the region should push most of the smoke north. Forecast trend remains in place with a ridge of high pressure through most of the week. Ensembles vary slightly in breakdown of the ridge ahead of energy ejecting out of the Pacific low.
Resulting afternoon temperatures will leave the Panhandles with a late taste of Summer, as highs reach the low 90s.
- Dry and warmer weather is expected through this week. (Today and tonight) Slightly warmer and drier conditions are expected across much of West Central Texas through Tonight, with weak high pressure starting to build over the region and starting a brief warming trend. A weak cold front will track through the Big Country this afternoon but the front will be dry, with only a wind shift and slightly cooler temperatures behind it.
An area of low pressure currently sits over southeastern Nebraska, with continued shower activity across primarily southeastern Nebraska, although a few light returns are being picked up on radar across western Iowa. Shower activity will end northwest to southeast late this afternoon/early evening as the low slides southeast into northern Missouri. Tuesday, will be fairly quiet with dry conditions expected as we come under northwest flow, with a broad upper trough to the east. Temperatures for this time of the year range from the low to mid-80s for highs and the mid-50s to low 60s for lows. Tuesday's expected highs will range from the mid-70s across western Iowa and areas along and south of the Hwy 92 corridor to the low 80s along the NE/SD state line. A cold front slips south into the region on Wednesday, bringing another shot of cooler air.
300 AM EDT Tue Sep 2 2025 High pressure continues to build off to the east through the middle of the week.
- A cold front will move through on Tuesday, bringing the potentialfor severe weather.
Surface winds will veer to the south over the course of the day, allowing for the intrusion of warmer, more moisture-rich air (dewpoints returning to the 60s). Temperatures will continue to moderate with rebounding moisture, topping out in the low-to-mid 80s today and warming by just a few degrees for Wednesday.
1135 PM EDT Mon Sep 1 2025 High pressure will extend across the area through late week. A cold front will approach from the northwest late in the weekend. Tonight: Quiet conditions will continue as a wedge of high pressure at the surface remains centered over the centered over the northeast U. This will keep low level northeast flow, with relatively dry, cooler conditions.
A low/mid level ridge axis is swinging south across the Texas Panhandle and West Texas, which will reinforce northerly flow aloft over South Central Texas and keep the front out of the region. The increased northerly flow will siphon off slightly cooler air at 700mb. Weak northerly winds continue into Wednesday with northwesterly flow aloft thanks to anomalous troughing persisting over the eastern half of CONUS.
Dry northwesterly to westerly flow will remain in place for most of the forecast with a rather stout upper trough firmly planted across the eastern US. Until then the forecast will mainly be a temperature forecast with highs starting off in the upper 80s and slowly climbing into the mid 90s by the end of the week as the upper trough slowly breaks down. With drier air in place, dewpoints will remain lower keeping overnight night lows "cooler" and afternoon heat indices in check.
The pattern is book ended with a broad upper level ridge located over the four corners region, and a upper level trough that is offshore trying to push in over the west coast.
The rain and associated cloud cover will help temperatures cooler than normal over most of our CWA. High temperatures near normal will occur in our southeast where the low rain chances and greatest isolation is expected. /22/ Global guidance continues to show a broad trough axis over the eastern half of the country. This trough axis will help funnel in a couple of minor disturbances which will help bring in some decent chances (between 25-35%) for afternoon scattered showers and t- storms across a good portion of our forecast area heading into Wednesday afternoon/early Wednesday evening.
* A cold front is expected to sweep through the region tomorrow afternoon creating the potential for severe thunderstorms.
Issued at 120 AM MDT Tue Sep 2 2025 High pressure remains in place over the area with the ridge axis over eastern Idaho.
- A strong cold front moves through the area Wednesday brining a chance for strong to severe storms Wednesday afternoon.
652 AM EDT Tue Sep 2 2025 High pressure to the north will maintain control into the middle of the week. A weak cold front late in the week could lead to a few showers.
This area features the highest surface dew points, with values forecast to range from 45-55 F during the afternoon hours. On Wednesday, chances for showers and thunderstorms increase further, especially across northwest Arizona due to the influence of an inverted trough rotating around the subtropical high.
This low and front will remain in place through the next few days, therefore this afternoon surge pattern is forecast to continue,mainly for the Upper Keys through the short term. The low and front will remain rooted in place through the next few days with undulating winds varying between northwest and southwest.
613 AM CDT Tue Sep 2 2025 Updated at 612 AM CDT Tue Sep 2 2025 - Continued warm and dry until Wednesday evening when a cold front may spark a few thunderstorms.
600 AM CDT Tue Sep 2 2025 Area radars are showing widely scattered showers across the region this morning, associated with a weak cold front that is somewhere over the southern third of the state.
507 AM EDT Tue Sep 2 2025 High pressure to the north will maintain control into the middle of the week. A weak cold front late in the week could lead to a few showers.
- A few severe storms (risk level 1 of 5) possible this afternoon/evening with the arrival of a strong cold front. As that activity moves out, a plume of moisture will see surface dew points rise into the low to mid 60s, allowing ~1000 to 2000 J/kg of MLCAPE to build ahead of an approaching cold front. The action will continue into Wednesday, with gusty NW winds on the order of 20-30 mph, cooler temperatures into the 50s and 60s, and scattered CAA showers and storms during the afternoon.
Meanwhile, broad troughiness aloft continues along the East Coast with a weak area of low pressure, and frontal boundary across southern portions of the peninsula.
645 AM CDT Tue Sep 2 2025 - Dry and warmer weather is expected through this week. (Today and tonight) Slightly warmer and drier conditions are expected across much of West Central Texas through Tonight, with weak high pressure starting to build over the region and starting a brief warming trend. A weak cold front will track through the Big Country this afternoon but the front will be dry, with only a wind shift and slightly cooler temperatures behind it.
1051 AM EDT Tue Sep 2 2025 High pressure will extend across the area through late week. A cold front will approach from the northwest late in the weekend. The forecast area will be situated between high pressure inland and an area of low pressure off the east coast of FL.
723 AM EDT Tue Sep 2 2025 High pressure continues to build off to the east through the middle of the week.
614 AM CDT Tue Sep 2 2025 - Below normal temperatures continue Tuesday with a 10-40% chance of showers and thunderstorms (highest in northwest Arkansas) - A cold front late Wednesday brings another shot of cool air and additional rain chances.
Issued at 120 AM MDT Tue Sep 2 2025 High pressure remains in place over the area with the ridge axis over eastern Idaho. Issued at 205 PM MDT Mon Sep 1 2025 Forecast trend remains in place with a ridge of high pressure through most of the week. Ensembles vary slightly in breakdown of the ridge ahead of energy ejecting out of the Pacific low.
728 AM EDT Tue Sep 2 2025 - Next Chance for Rain on Wednesday - Upper troughing brings cool, showery weather into the weekend - Next Chance for Rain on Wednesday Despite a highly amplified and somewhat blocky flow regime more typical of autumn than late summer, the models are in a fairly good agreement on the details of the timing of the pattern evolution over the next several days.
- Cold front looks to bring scattered showers/thunderstorms early today (mainly northeast zones) with much cooler conditions by Wednesday.
756 AM EDT Tue Sep 2 2025 After a period of cooler days, warmer weather is opening the month of September.
1259 PM EDT Tue Sep 2 2025 High pressure to the north will maintain control into the middle of the week. A weak cold front late in the week could lead to a few showers.
At this moment the highest winds we are looking to see should be in the 30- 40mph range with a small potential for a cell or two to overachieve into 50+ mph. The front should drape through central to southern Mississippi by this time too, the upper levels largely reflect the surface in that there is set to broad troughing over the CWA for the next few days, bringing progressively clearer skies daily through the late week.
236 PM MDT Tue Sep 2 2025 - Late day cold front brings breezy winds and a few light showers in the east tonight; Wednesday will be cooler. - Tonight's cold front may bring Canadian wildfire smoke into the eastern plains; reduced air quality possible.
High pressure remains in place over the area with the ridge axis over eastern Idaho. Forecast trend remains in place with a ridge of high pressure through most of the week. Ensembles vary slightly in breakdown of the ridge ahead of energy ejecting out of the Pacific low.
- Warmer weather expected on Wednesday with highs back in the 80s to mid 90s.
- Dry and warmer weather is expected through this week. (This evening through Wednesday) A dissipating cold front is moving south across our area early this afternoon. With sunny skies Wednesday and a slight increase in 850mb temperatures, highs will be a degree or two warmer than today, and in the lower to mid 90s.
146 PM EDT Tue Sep 2 2025 After a period of cooler days, warmer weather is opening the month of September.
- A cool front pushes through north-central WY early Wednesday morning to bring cooler temperatures and breezy north winds to Johnson and Natrona Counties.
356 PM EDT Tue Sep 2 2025 High pressure to the north will maintain control into the middle of the week. A weak cold front late in the week could lead to a few showers into the weekend with temperatures warming above normal.
222 PM CDT Tue Sep 2 2025 - Potential for a few severe thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon and evening as a cold front moves through the area. A weak upper low continues to drop south over eastern Kansas this afternoon, supporting a few remnant sprinkles over northeast Kansas. Otherwise, clouds are gradually thinning out as the low moves away from our area. Attention then turns to a much stronger upper low that will move southeast over the Upper Midwest tonight into tomorrow, driving a cold front southeast through our area. Sunshine and southwest winds ahead of the cold front will help us climb into the 80s during the afternoon, for once not too far away from seasonable values. Increasing mid-level flow in advance of the upper low will allow for effective bulk shear of around 40 kts.
141 PM CDT Tue Sep 2 2025 - A cold front will bring (80% chance) showers and thunderstorms to central Illinois Wednesday afternoon and evening.
300 PM CDT Tue Sep 2 2025 - Showers are likely (~60-70%) with embedded thunder late tonight through Wednesday ahead of an approaching cold front.
A low pressure system off the coast of Central California in bringing in a small amount of moisture and enough lift to lead to the development of thunderstorms this morning, which were fast moving cells that quickly exited our CWA.
- Increasing rain chances and turning cooler Wednesday. Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Ridging evident over the Intermountain West this afternoon with broad troughing over the eastern half of the CONUS. As a result, increasing chances for showers, maybe a few rumbles of thunder, and a return to much cooler weather is on tap. Moisture steadily increases late tonight into Wednesday morning in advance of approaching cold front set to trek across northern Michigan during the day.
Convection will initially favor the higher terrain, as cloud cover may inhibit lift from daytime heating in valley locations. While temperatures are forecast to touch the low 100s between 21-23z, existing cloud cover and rain cooled outflows may make it difficult to reach.
The main activity will be showers, though with the higher PW and meager instabilities, a few thunderstorms could be possible in the northwest, with little to no impacts expected. By Wednesday, a low pressure develops over the Great Lakes area, strengthening by the afternoon. The trough will deepen, causing the flow to impact areas across Alabama, with low and mid level flow becoming more consistent out of the west and southwest and increasing slightly.
353 PM CDT Tue Sep 2 2025 - There are small chances for t-storms ahead of a cold front Wednesday evening across south central Kansas.
- A strong cold front will bring showers and isolated thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night.
1217 PM CDT Tue Sep 2 2025 - Dry and warmer weather is expected through this week. (Today and tonight) Slightly warmer and drier conditions are expected across much of West Central Texas through Tonight, with weak high pressure starting to build over the region and starting a brief warming trend. A weak cold front will track through the Big Country this afternoon but the front will be dry, with only a wind shift and slightly cooler temperatures behind it.
This low and front will remain in place through the next few days, therefore this afternoon surge pattern is forecast to continue,mainly for the Upper Keys through the short term. A stationary front associated with the this low, extends almost due west across south central Florida and over the Gulf Basin. Given its position, it initially may affect the Lower Keys more than the rest of the Keys for today in terms of rain chances. At the same time, we will remain under a broad trough that is stalled along the Eastern Seaboard.
140 PM EDT Tue Sep 2 2025 High pressure will dominate through Wednesday.
For today and tomorrow a low pressure has formed off the East Coast which can be seen very well on satellite. Being on the back side of this low has brought some slightly lower moisture and sinking air.
153 PM EDT Tue Sep 2 2025 High pressure will extend across the area through late week. A cold front will approach from the northwest late in the weekend. Tonight: Little change to the pattern overnight as the forecast area continues to sit between high pressure inland and an area of low pressure offshore. We should see another quiet night with lows dipping into the low to mid 60s.
While temperatures are forecast to touch the low 100s between 21-23z, existing cloud cover and rain cooled outflows may make it difficult to reach.
125 PM EDT Tue Sep 2 2025 High pressure will dominate through Wednesday.
1200 PM EDT Tue Sep 2 2025 High pressure over the central Appalacians through mid Atlantic will keep mostly dry conditions across the middle Ohio Valley into midweek.
Updated at 110 PM CDT Tue Sep 2 2025 - Much drier conditions and warmer temperatures are in store through the end of the week. (This afternoon through Wednesday night) Current satellite imagery and latest RAP analysis shows upper-level ridging building in from the Rockies and Great Basin. This will increase subsidence promoting dry and warmer conditions across the forecast area. Areas across the higher terrain look to reach the upper 70s to mid 80s. A rinse and repeat weather pattern is in store tomorrow as high temperatures will be a degree or two warmer with continued dry conditions, thanks to the upper ridge building in further east.
1236 PM CDT Tue Sep 2 2025 Area radars are showing widely scattered showers across the region this morning, associated with a weak cold front that is somewhere over the southern third of the state.
Rain chances will decrease tonight into Wednesday morning as frontal boundary moves south and high pressure builds across the region.
129 PM EDT Tue Sep 2 2025 - Next Chance for Rain on Wednesday - Upper troughing brings cool, showery weather into the weekend - Next Chance for Rain on Wednesday Despite a highly amplified and somewhat blocky flow regime more typical of autumn than late summer, the models are in a fairly good agreement on the details of the timing of the pattern evolution over the next several days.
- Cooler than normal weather continues to dominate the weather through this weekend following the cold fropa. This activity is ahead of the cold front, which is found from central SD to north central MN this afternoon. Northwest of this cold front, a large area of stratocumulus can be found over southern Canada, with gusty north winds and temperatures in the 50s to lower 60s. Most models have the cold front south of I-80 by Noon, with plenty of clouds to the north of it. Temperatures aloft crash quickly into the single digits C, but winds winds ongoing, lows will only be a few degrees cooler than recent radiational cooling nights. Forecasts remain in the lower to mid 40s for the entire area.
151 PM EDT Tue Sep 2 2025 High pressure to the north will maintain control into the middle of the week. A weak cold front late in the week could lead to a few showers into the weekend with temperatures warming above normal.
Locations west of the mountains will see warmer and humid weather through Wednesday as well. WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO Showers continue over the lower deserts and Mojave deserts this afternoon. Warmer and more humid weather will continue across the region, with highs well into the 90s in the western valleys and widespread 70s/80s near the coast and in the mountains.
Surface analysis places a weak area of low pressure north of the Bahamas, attached to a stationary front draped from the east Coast of Texas eastward to the Florida Peninsula, then extending northward to off the Carolina Coast. The low and front will remain rooted in place through the next few days, with undulating winds varying between northwest and southwest.
730 PM EDT Tue Sep 2 2025 High pressure will dominate through Wednesday.
612 PM CDT Tue Sep 2 2025 - Dry and warmer weather is expected through this week. (This evening through Wednesday) A dissipating cold front is moving south across our area early this afternoon. With sunny skies Wednesday and a slight increase in 850mb temperatures, highs will be a degree or two warmer than today, and in the lower to mid 90s.
Strongest storms are producing a good amount of lightning, and with the freezing levels being fairly low, we could see some small hail produced by these storms as well with this much lightning activity.
553 PM CDT Tue Sep 2 2025 - Cold front passes Wed.
Going through the week, an upper level ridge over the PacNW will continue to build into the area, bringing spotty triple digit temperatures across the Basin.
711 PM EDT Tue Sep 2 2025 High pressure to the north will maintain control into the middle of the week. A weak cold front late in the week could lead to a few showers into the weekend with temperatures warming above normal.
On Wednesday, the upper level trough remains located across the Southeast. Precip chances will keep temperatures in the low to mid 80s during the afternoon hours.