Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
(Rest of today through Monday) Last night's cold front has passed entirely through Middle Tennessee, so we are enjoying a much drier and cooler air mass today. An upper trough is situated to our immediate east, and there is still a swath of moisture expected to ride down the northwest flow aloft into eastern portions of Middle Tennessee, so afternoon showers are still possible, mainly along the Cumberland Plateau.
The slow drying process has begun across northern Michigan with high pressure centered across southwest Ontario starting to advect in drier air. Cooler and less humid tonight with lows ranging from the 50s to around 60. Pattern Synopsis and Forecast: Quiet but beautiful summer weather expected this week: Current midlevel troughing over the Upper Midwest continues to slowly progress eastward as midlevel ridging builds across the central U.
This is a classic example of the aforementioned Cuban Shadow where drier air filters into the lower levels and makes convective development (and sometimes even cloud development) tough. Beginning tonight, the stationary boundary and associated moisture that has lingered across our area for the past day or so will start to lift northward as a North Atlantic ridge tries to nose its way back across our area. While the ridge axis is attempting to lift north tonight, the gradient will remain weak, resulting in variable winds. By tomorrow, winds will settle into a southwesterly direction between the departing boundary and the northern periphery of the ridge axis. The ridge axis will remain shunted to our south as yet another upper trough digs southward and blocks the ridge from lifting further north.
Haven't really seen that dry air translate to the surface yet with low-level moisture pooling ahead of the front and dewpoints still in the lower to mid 70s. Deep northwest to northerly flow will bring a more pleasant, post-frontal airmass to the region as the upper-level trough axis moves over the East Coast, so it looks like we'll be done with the Heat Advisories for a little while. Highs will be in the upper 80s to lower 90s with afternoon dewpoints mixing down into the lower to mid 60s.
(Tonight through Monday night) Heat will be the main focus this week as subtropical high pressure continues to influence South Central Texas.
Backside of a large low pressure system continues to impact the area this afternoon as it gradually pushes eastward. Cloud cover and dewpoints remaining up a bit should keep lows in the low 60s across the area. Monday will be pleasant by late August standards, with scattered to broken fair weather cumulus developing and some breeziness due to the continued surface pressure gradient as the high moves in behind the departing low. An amplified blocking synoptic-scale pattern will be present this coming week, placing our region in northwesterly flow.
At the surface, a cold front currently moving across the Appalachian Mountains will traverse the forecast area later tonight. Highs today will be in the lower to mid 90s. The convection should diminish and/or move out of the CWA by 06Z with clearing skies behind the cold front as drier air moves in. Drier air moves into the region behind a slowly departing cold front. Upper level troughing will remain in place over the eastern CONUS.
135 PM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024 We have a bit of an unusual set up today with a long wave trough evident over the east CONUS, while a strong midlevel high is parked over the southern plains. While dewpoints do mix down into the low 70s and upper 60s, The higher temperatures should compensate. In general, the weather for the week can be characterized by drier, cooler conditions, with highs not exceeding 95F and relative humidities not exceeding 40% during the day.
1211 PM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024 (Today through Monday) - Heat Advisory in effect today a Moderate to Major risk of heat related impacts A broad mid level ridge centered over the Texas Panhandle will maintain hot and dry conditions through the short term forecast.
Previous Discussion Issued: 1156 AM EDT Sun Aug 18 2024 An approaching cold/occluded front associated with a slow moving upper trough/low over southern Ontario will bring another day of scattered to numerous showers and t-storms. Vis sat trends at 16Z show low clouds scouring out across the Lower Susq with plenty of breaks developing downwind of the Alleghenies. Rain rates 2-3"/hr will be possible given the high PW environment.
Looking at current satellite imagery, there continues to be a deep upper level low centered just off the coast of Oregon and Washington. Tonight into Monday, models show our area in the same pattern, with an upper level low off the Oregon coast and moisture still moving up from Utah into our area combined with lingering moisture.
125 PM EDT Sun Aug 18 2024 A closed low will be over lower Ontario today, with a broad cyclonic flow across the TN Valley and Appalachians. A jet streak over the Mid MS Valley will push SE, ampliyfing the upper trough and cooling midlevel temperatures this afternoon. Isolated showers are expected areawide this morning as a deep trough sits over the Eastern U. A cold front will move through the region this morning bringing much lower temps and dew points. For the most part, showers will be confined to along and north of I-40 and the higher elevations of the East Tennessee Mountains (due to terrain forcing in northwest flow).
MM (Today and tonight) Satellite imagery shows extensive stratus development across the region, as an upper level low off the coast of the Pacific Northwest continues to promote temperatures below seasonal averages through the region. Low temperatures tonight remain in the 50s to the low 60s throughout the regions, save the highest peaks of the Santa Lucias where highs could rise into the upper 60s to lower 70s. High temperatures will range from the upper 50s to mid 60s at the coast, to the upper 60s to the mid 70s at the Bayshore, the mid 70s to the mid 80s in the inland valleys with temperatures reaching the low 90s in the warmest spots of southern Monterey County.
1231 PM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024 (Rest of Today) A cold front is forecast to move through the Tennessee Valley this afternoon, bringing low chances (30% or less) of showers/storms to the area. Higher chances within that range remain in our southern counties with the highest confidence in Cullman County.
Potential towards the end of the week for even cooler temperatures and breezy to gusty winds. Our upper level low remains near the Pacific NW, keeping our cooler run of temperatures in the forecast today.
125 PM EDT Sun Aug 18 2024 A low pressure system moving through the Great Lakes will bring scattered showers and a few thunderstorms to our area today. High pressure will then build into the region, bringing dry and seasonably cool conditions through mid week. With the expansive cloud cover and widespread SHRA, temps will be held considerably cooler than has been the case recently as highs only out in the mid to upper 70s. This will lead to dry conditions and cooler temperatures.
1226 PM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024 (Today and tonight) More of the same regarding temperatures today with upper level high pressure still positioned almost squarely overhead. This combined with some modest mid/upper height rises should result in high temperatures a degree or two warmer compared to yesterday in some locations, with highs expected to exceed 100 degrees area-wide today.
(This evening through Monday Night) High pressure will continue to dominate the local weather pattern today and Monday and will result in slight to no rain chances.
1136 AM EDT Sun Aug 18 2024 A cold front will cross the area today, bringing scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon.
Troughing aloft will cover much of the eastern part of the country starting tomorrow, with a weak surface boundary sinking into north Florida.
1011 AM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024 Temperatures across the Mid-South at this hour range from the low 80s to near 90 degrees under mostly clear skies. Hot and humid conditions resulting in dangerous heat index values are still expected across portions of north Mississippi and southeastern Arkansas ahead of a southward moving cold front, where a Heat Advisory and Excessive Heat Warning remain in effect until 8 pm CDT tonight. The cold front will clear the Mid-South later this afternoon, bringing cooler temperature and drier conditions to the region. JPR One final day of heat and humidity before a cold front moves through the Mid-South.
Scattered to numerous showers in northern sections this afternoon and tomorrow under a broad trough. Discussion: An upper level trough axis is crossing the area this afternoon, bringing some cooler temps aloft that are driving scattered to numerous showers in the northern half of the area. This pattern will favor temperatures that are cooler than normal, with lows in the 60s tonight and highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s tomorrow.
Northerly flow is becoming established across Southeast Michigan as the closed low pressure induced circulation continues to walk eastward toward Lake Ontario. Ongoing showers with isolated thunder associated with upper low pressure will shift east and southeast early this morning mainly over/near the Thumb region as this low opens and quickens its move to the east ever so slightly. Any remaining showers shift off to the east this evening into tonight with dry weather then becoming established for the balance of the week as high pressure settles south into the area with time. Temperatures will hold in the lower/mid 70s today and settle back into the upper 60s to lower 70s early in the week before rebounding gradually through the 70s into the mid/late week period.
A persistent mid-level ridge will remain anchored over the Texas Panhandle in the short term, also influencing deep South Texas and the RGV. High pressure will likewise persist over the West Gulf.
(Tonight) As the cold front passes through our area, low storm chances (30% or less) continue to exist with higher confidence in storm formation in our southeastern counties (Cullman, Marshall, and Dekalb).
(This evening through Monday) As we bake another day under sunny skies, hope is on the horizon in the form of a backdoor cold front (that is, a cold front approaching from the northeast) arriving at our doorstep this evening. The front slows down during the day tomorrow, giving a strong gradient between cooler temperatures to the northeast behind the front and continued dangerous heat to the southwest ahead of the front.
Muscha (Today through Monday night) An upper level high will be centered over the Panhandles today. Highs today should be similar or slightly warmer than yesterday. Thunderstorms are expected to remain northwest of the CWA through tonight as the high deflects the mountain convection more north and around our CWA. On Monday, a cold front is expected to move into the Panhandles. The general consensus is that the Oklahoma Panhandle and the northern Texas Panhandle could be a little cooler on Monday, while the southern Texas Panhandle has highs similar to Sunday's. Also, we may have some thunderstorms try to sneak into the Oklahoma Panhandle as the upper high shifts ever so slightly to the west and a northwest flow tries to bring mountain convection this way.
Surface analysis reveals an axis of high pressure from about St Joseph, Missouri through the Boundary Waters of northern Minnesota and beyond.
The low clouds this morning hanging on until 11am generally limited the amount of time that area was allowed any deferential heating. Winds will generally gust to around 20mph today out of the west as temps rise into the low to mid 90s over much of the area.
A ridge over the lee of the Rockies and an upper low off the coast of the Pacific Northwest is bringing cool Southwest onshore flow to Interior Central California today with below normal temperatures across the region. As we head into the early part of the work week the upper low lifts into the Arctic leaving a weak trough over the Northwest and the ridge nudges back into the four corners region tweaking up the heat a little bit for the San Joaquin Valley. Then late in the week a strong upper low drops in from Alaska into Northern California pushing the ridge off to the east over the Mississippi River Valley.
------------------------------------------------------------------- A slow-moving upper low north of the area will continue to transition east as a weak cold front currently moving into western PA crosses the region. KEY MESSAGES: - Residual showers with cooler temperatures are likely on Monday, diminishing Monday evening. ------------------------------------------------------------------- The trough will shift east overnight, with the axis crossing Pittsburgh early Monday morning. ------------------------------------------------------------------- Long range ensembles indicate that upper low pressure will slowly meander across the Northeast through much of the week while fairly amplified ridging continues over the Rockies.
After another day of widespread triple digit temperatures today, highs tomorrow for areas across the north are forecast to be lower due to a weak cold front. According to the latest 18/18z H500 RAP analysis, the center of the upper level high is sitting right over the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles. With the high pressure in place over the CWA, temperatures have risen into the upper 90s and up to 107 so far this afternoon. The upper level high is forecast to remain over the area once again tomorrow.
622 PM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024 (Tonight through Monday night) Key Messages: - Moderate to major risk of heat-related illnesses Monday A mid to upper level ridge will continue to hold firm over Texas promoting above normal temperatures.
Drier high pressure takes control of our weather from Monday night through the rest of the week.
626 PM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024 (This evening through Monday) The upper ridge is expected to continue spinning directly overhead today and tomorrow. With the placement in the dome of high pressure and strongest subsidence, dry air is expected to dominate aloft. Tomorrow's temperatures are on repeat and given the recent overachievement of temperatures over the NBM yesterday and so far today, highs were bumped warmer for tomorrow. A few records may be tied or broken tomorrow with the high forecast to be 103 degrees in Lubbock and a previous record of 103 degrees (set back in 1994). Additionally, the high in Childress is forecast for 109 degrees with a previous record of 109 degrees (set back in 1943).
High pressure was in control across the Northland this afternoon with smoke leading to hazy skies along with diurnal cumulus. Some vorticity will be moving through the region overhead in association with an area of low pressure southeast of Hudson Bay, but drier air near the surface and a lack of forcing will keep things dry.
715 PM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024 We have a bit of an unusual set up today with a long wave trough evident over the east CONUS, while a strong midlevel high is parked over the southern plains. While dewpoints do mix down into the low 70s and upper 60s, The higher temperatures should compensate. In general, the weather for the week can be characterized by drier, cooler conditions, with highs not exceeding 95F and relative humidities not exceeding 40% during the day.
Surface cold front should clear the area shortly after sunset and then the trough axis will swing through. The trough will shift east overnight, with the axis crossing Pittsburgh early Monday morning. KEY MESSAGES: - Residual showers with cooler temperatures are likely on Monday, diminishing Monday evening.
605 PM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024 (This evening through Monday Night) High pressure will continue to dominate the local weather pattern today and Monday and will result in slight to no rain chances.
The weak inverted trough passing through Chihuahua and Sonora may be a little far south to do much for our area.
Currently - A mid latitude trough is swinging into the eastern United States and has contributed to the Atlantic ridge retreating eastward. Short Term Update - The previously mentioned trough will push a bit further southeastward and reach into the Gulf of Mexico. In turn, the weak western flank of the Atlantic ridge will slip southward and together with the trough will turn light breezes southwesterly. Expect overnight lows to settle into the lower 80s with dew points in the mid 70s. A mid latitude trough swinging through the eastern United States and the Atlantic ridge displaced off to the east will result in light breezes through the overnight.
(Tonight) With the cold front south of the area this evening, northwest winds gusting around 20kt at times has driven dew points down into the upper 50s to middle 60s.
As we head into the overnight hours, some slightly cooler/drier air is beginning to work into the region from the north bringing a reprieve to the heat experienced over much of the last week. Bowlan (Tomorrow through Sunday) Scattered convection could linger through the morning across mainly NW AR, otherwise the front will continue its back-door path across much of the area bringing notably less humid and slightly cooler air into all but the far southeast portion of OK. As the area remains on the eastern side of the upper ridge, nocturnal storm chances may persist another day or two but with a down-turn in coverage and intensity.
High pressure to our north will have increasing influence on our wx so Monday's temps will be a little cooler and the humidity will be lower. (Rest of today through Monday) Last night's cold front has passed entirely through Middle Tennessee, so we are enjoying a much drier and cooler air mass today. An upper trough is situated to our immediate east, and there is still a swath of moisture expected to ride down the northwest flow aloft into eastern portions of Middle Tennessee, so afternoon showers are still possible, mainly along the Cumberland Plateau.
Key Message(s): - Thunderstorm activity gradually winding down as drier air pushes into the region Deep trough continues to move eastward across the eastern CONUS, forcing widely scattered showers and storms across the FA. Overall, the cold front will gradually move through the area as we go through the night allowing for 60s dewpoints to push into the area tonight. This should help temps get a bit cooler than recently in the upper 60s and low 70s. Drier air moves into the region behind a slowly departing cold front. Upper level troughing will remain in place over the eastern CONUS.
440 PM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024 (Tonight) As the cold front passes through our area, low storm chances (30% or less) continue to exist with higher confidence in storm formation in our southeastern counties (Cullman, Marshall, and Dekalb).
Showers will linger across the area this afternoon, primarily west of I-5 as an offshore low pressure system moves north along the coast. Showers should move out of the area by this evening as the upper level low lifts north off the Washington coast. The low pressure system remains off the Washington coast on Monday with continued onshore southwesterly flow.
These will likely continue for a few hours as the forcing closer to the low center allows for some elevated convection. Backside of a large low pressure system continues to impact the area this afternoon as it gradually pushes eastward. Cloud cover and dewpoints remaining up a bit should keep lows in the low 60s across the area. Monday will be pleasant by late August standards, with scattered to broken fair weather cumulus developing and some breeziness due to the continued surface pressure gradient as the high moves in behind the departing low. An amplified blocking synoptic-scale pattern will be present this coming week, placing our region in northwesterly flow.
The front that's working it's way though the CWA should bring in cooler drier conditions over the need few days. The low clouds this morning hanging on until 11am generally limited the amount of time that area was allowed any deferential heating. Winds will generally gust to around 20mph today out of the west as temps rise into the low to mid 90s over much of the area.
736 PM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024 (Rest of today through Monday) Last night's cold front has passed entirely through Middle Tennessee, so we are enjoying a much drier and cooler air mass today. An upper trough is situated to our immediate east, and there is still a swath of moisture expected to ride down the northwest flow aloft into eastern portions of Middle Tennessee, so afternoon showers are still possible, mainly along the Cumberland Plateau.
Dryer weather is still forecasted to settle into the region as high pressure continues to promote clearing skies. The slow drying process has begun across northern Michigan with high pressure centered across southwest Ontario starting to advect in drier air. Cooler and less humid tonight with lows ranging from the 50s to around 60. Pattern Synopsis and Forecast: Quiet but beautiful summer weather expected this week: Current midlevel troughing over the Upper Midwest continues to slowly progress eastward as midlevel ridging builds across the central U.
A strong upper level low will continue to spin offshore through today, continuing to provide an unstable environment over our area, with another chance of showers/thunderstorms.
Heat Advisory for the Big Country, Concho Valley and Heartland Expect hot temperatures again today as a strong upper level high pressure ridge builds over the area.
(Today through Tuesday night) A strong 500mb high pressure system is holding over the Panhandles with model agreement not expecting it to move off for the rest of the week. This high pressure system will keep the upper-level flow pretty stagnate for the time being, which will allow the Panhandles to continue to heat up each afternoon.
334 AM EDT Mon Aug 19 2024 Mountain showers and thunderstorms are expected this afternoon, before dry high pressure builds in.
Quiet weather continues this afternoon as high temperatures warm into the lower 90s out west while the remainder of the region sits in the 80s. An upper level ridge continues to move across the Northern Rockies into the Northern Plains. Which has lead to the warmer weather this afternoon. The upper level ridge axis will settle over the Northern plains. As two upper level lows, one over the Pacific Northwest and the other over the Northeast, lock the ridge in an omega block.
1113 PM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024 (This evening through Monday Night) High pressure will continue to dominate the local weather pattern today and Monday and will result in slight to no rain chances. The low temperatures tonight and Monday night will be in the upper 70s to low 80s.
150 AM EDT Mon Aug 19 2024 A cold front will slowly move through the area through tonight. Cooler and drier conditions are then expected mid to late week. However, a weak trough offshore could bring some showers to mainly coastal areas. A cold front well to the west and associated with a decent mid level trough will move across the area tonight. Atypically deep mid/upper trough for mid August will persist across the eastern U. Time-height cross sections suggest ample H7-H85 moisture will be available Monday night as another impulse arrives from the backside of the trough. A drier column is expected to be in place during Tuesday along with the cold front pushing farther southeast and south of the forecast area. High temperatures during Tuesday will be a few degrees cooler than normal, and several degrees cooler compared to Monday.
(Today through Tuesday Night) A strong mid-upper level ridge will continue to create dangerously hot conditions across SE Texas Today and Tuesday.
Middle TN is still under northwest flow with a trough situated to our east and high pressure still centered near the TX Panhandle. A drier and cooler airmass has settled, and it'll be a beautiful start to the work week with highs in the 70s to 80s. (Tuesday Night through next Monday) Enjoy the taste of cooler weather because it won't last long.