Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Going forward throughout the day today, areas of established snowfall across the NW Panhandles and eastern NM could move east and southeast across the southern Texas Panhandle as the main low pressure system, now centered over far SE New Mexico moves east across the Permian Basin. Latest hi-res model data (which have not been ideal over the last 12-24 hours) have been displacing the main accumulating snow potential for later this morning into the afternoon associated with the main NW trowal region of the departing low pressure system. Temperatures will struggle to get out of the lower to mid 30s for highs across the majority of the region. High temperatures will range from the lower 40s in areas with decent snow cover to upper 40s to lower 50s in the rest of the region.
Upper level ridging departs our region today as upper level troughing moves back in this afternoon that is favorable to last through the week. Due to continuous upper level troughing and a strong cold front going to move through the area on Monday night, multiple days of light to moderate accumulating snowfall is likely. When the cold front moves through Monday night, temperatures return to near normal with highs in the 20s and low 30s.
337 AM MST Sun Feb 11 2024 - Dry and warmer today as high pressure moves over the state. High pressure covers the area briefly today. Places like the Bighorn Basin and Johnson County may see temperatures around 10 degrees warmer than yesterday. Most mountains will also see highs 10 to 20 degrees warmer today. The high pressure is short-lived. A Canadian trough dips down tonight, flattening the ridge and bringing increasing clouds. Precipitation chances increase for northwest Wyoming and the northern Bighorn Mountains late this evening as the trough approaches. Light snow chances continue through the day Monday, with chances spreading for much of far western Wyoming as the trough dips lower.
(Today) Visually impressive upper low is centered over southeast NM early this morning and will continue to move east through tonight, eventually tracking into far southeast OK. For today, rain will continue to expand across the area this morning within warm conveyor belt east of the low, with some elevated convection possibly expanding across far southeast OK.
(Today through Monday) The most recent surface analysis indicated low pressure just north of the Texas Big Bend, with both a cold front and stationary front trailing from this feature. The cold front will gradually work from west to east across Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley today, with precipitation not anticipated courtesy of the front nor through the remainder of the forecast period as the 500 mb flow overhead becomes more zonal and persists.
615 AM EST Sun Feb 11 2024 (Today through Monday) Deep-layered high pressure that settled over South Florida over the last few days will begin to shift south and east as the next low pressure system emerges into the central plains from the intermountain west. With South Florida sitting on the western periphery of the high on Sunday and Monday, a spirited southerly wind flow pattern will develop. Overnight minimum temperatures will range from the mid 60s inland to the lower 70s along the Atlantic coast.
A broad upper level ridge has continue to build across the area, promoting widespread valley fog. Ensemble guidance shows high confidence that ridging will gradually break down by mid week, but the exact evolution of this break down remains more uncertain.
Precipitation chances return today as a low pressure system approaches the Mid-South.
Upper low circulating over the Four Corners region continues east with high pressure and general upper ridging situated over the Great Basin Sunday. Generally dry and fair weather will be in place under mostly sunny skies with a few high clouds present, and any patchy freezing fog that develops early this morning will dissipate thru the remainder of morning. Temperatures warm further with daytime highs in the upper 30s to upper 40s and overnight lows in the low teens to low 20s.
High pressure will be in control today, supporting dry conditions and light winds with very localized fog and some low stratus clouds the only wx concerns (mostly an aviation impact). A dusting to 2 inches of snow appears likely with the highest totals as you go up in elevation. Winds will start to get a bit gustier Mon near mntn peaks and ridgelines.
519 AM CST Sun Feb 11 2024 Precipitation chances return today as a low pressure system approaches the Mid-South.
321 AM MST Sun Feb 11 2024 Today: Freezing fog developed overnight in a generally isolated fashion, aside from persisting along the Yellowstone River valley looking at observations and nighttime microphysics from satellite imagery. A warm frontal passage is leading to rising overnight temperatures and mixing out of the fog seen earlier around Glasgow. This will allow for near to slightly above freezing temperatures despite an increase in cloud cover.
This should help to push a surface cold front southward into west central Texas throughout the day. The upper low should track across the Big Country today, resulting in cloudy to mostly cloudy skies for much of the forecast area. Temperatures should fall from the low 40s into the low 30s across the Big Country. Moisture should wrap around the upper low and produce chances for light rain showers for most of the day across the Big Country. Forecast soundings in this area show freezing levels down to about 700ft with moisture in the 700-sfc layer. A light wintry mix of snow and rain showers therefore may also occur by this evening where surface temperatures get close enough to freezing and a few snowflakes make it down to the ground.
Analysis this morning reveals a deep layer mean anticyclone centered over eastern Cuba with ridging extending north- northeastward. The high has shifted slightly eastward during the last 24 hours. Recent Key West Doppler VAD wind profile measurements show a veering profile in the lower troposphere, indicative of weak warm thermal advection. Current air temperatures in most Keys island communities are holding in the lower 70s, with dewpoint temperatures in the upper 60s.
527 AM CST Sun Feb 11 2024 (Today) Visually impressive upper low is centered over southeast NM early this morning and will continue to move east through tonight, eventually tracking into far southeast OK. For today, rain will continue to expand across the area this morning within warm conveyor belt east of the low, with some elevated convection possibly expanding across far southeast OK.
539 AM CST Sun Feb 11 2024 (Today through Monday afternoon) The long awaited upper level low has moved into southern New Mexico this morning and will reach West Texas this afternoon. The stronger thunderstorms ahead of the low have moved east of the area and now the weather threat through this afternoon transitions to accumulating snow. There isn't any cold air ahead of the low with temperatures currently above freezing all the way north to Amarillo. Two locations where snow accumulation begins earlier is northern Lea County which is under an advisory, and the Guadalupe Mountains that are already below freezing and likely already accumulating snow. The highest elevations of the Guadalupe Mountains could see over 6 inches of snow. Wet surfaces combined with hard freezing temperatures are favorable conditions for black ice development, especially on exposed road surfaces like bridges.
(This evening through Sunday) The upper level ridging continues to remain stagnant over southeastern portions of CONUS with the western edge just over our region. As thicknesses increase under the upper ridging, temperatures will continue to rise into the upper 90s for most of the region with some areas off the Caprock reaching lower 100s. However, any thunderstorms that develop are expected to be short- lived due to subsidence from the upper ridge. The upper ridge will gradually expand northwestward over most of the southern CONUS. With the upper high directly over our region, subsidence will prevail, keeping conditions dry through Sunday.
Strong ridging will gradually shift westward across Florida into the Gulf over the next couple of days. This, along with the high pushing west, will result in modestly increasing lower level moisture and weakening inhibition. Expect seasonably warm temperatures with highs near 90 and lows in the lower to mid 80s.
Water Vapor imagery has a trough over California and our high center is out to the far east, bringing southwesterly to westerly flow across the region today.
There is a 10 to 30 percent chance for showers and thunderstorms to develop across the Sierra Nevada Crest through this evening, especially in the high Sierra near Yosemite National Park. Cooler, below-average temperatures and breezy conditions continue for the remainder of the weekend, with some fire weather concerns.
Satellite depicts clear conditions throughout the region thanks to the trough pushing out of the area. Expecting breezy winds to continue through the Gorge and Cascade Gaps, with temperatures getting to the high 80s/low 90s. Expecting the clear conditions to persist through Saturday as the pattern begins to shift into a more trough-esque pattern starting on Sunday.
Warmer, dry, and breezy conditions set in through this weekend. An upper low centered over northern California this morning will continue to produce dry southwesterly flow across our region through the weekend.
Otherwise, a drier pattern in store through mid week under a strong upper level ridge.
The upper ridge pattern will weaken slightly into the upcoming week allowing for slightly lower temperatures but continued thunderstorm chances at times.
Warmer temperatures in the mid to upper 90s with potentially a couple of areas reaching a 100 is expected this afternoon. An upper level ridge continues to build in from the east and may bring some slight perturbations with it in the west. Upper level ridging continues overhead tomorrow with warm temperatures once again. Even less support will be available from forcing aloft under the ridge.
As mentioned, rain chances will be on the lower end tomorrow afternoon, but non-zero with focus primarily across the far southern zones as the Gulf sea breeze advances north around lunchtime. Beyond Sunday, heat headlines will become the main focus as upper ridging retrogrades from the SE CONUS and settles over the FA. The influence of the strong ridge regime will allow for afternoon highs to flirt with the triple digits through mid-week while heat indices hold advisory criteria, if not even begin to enter warning criteria (at or above 110 deg F).
This area is within the terminus of the low- level jet (most evident at 925 mb). Dangerous heat and humidity will be the weather story this afternoon with a 593 dam mid-level ridge expanding westward into the Southern Plains. The highest air temperatures will be across the west, where 850 mb temperatures associated with the low-level thermal ridge will be the highest (~25 to 26 deg C). The most dangerous heat indices are expected to be across southeast Oklahoma (where the highest dew points are forecast). The exception is northwest/west central Oklahoma, where dew points will be the lowest. With the strengthening mid-level ridge, convective coverage is expected to be markedly lower this afternoon.
(Through Sunday night) High pressure surface and aloft centered over Georgia at midday.
Unsettled weather will continue through the weekend as the region remains under the influence of a mid level trough/low.
But first, showers and storms continues to develop across the area this afternoon with persistent deep onshore flow on the western periphery of a ridge.
Mainly afternoon showers and thunderstorms will be most prevalent over the weekend, but the chance will persist until a cold front moves through mid week. There is an impulse traveling across the lower Great Lakes that is enhancing activity across northern Indiana.
In addition to southwest breezes between 15 and 25 mph, the trough across the western CONUS has allowed heights aloft to drop, resulting in below-normal temperatures. This trough will remain situated across the western CONUS, but a ridge of high pressure across the southern CONUS will begin to retrograde westward through the work week.
An open wave off the California coast and an area of high pressure to the east will bring monsoonal moisture to the desert southwest.
626 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025 - Warmer today with isolated rain and storm chances across SE KS.
AR will reside on the Wrn periphery of a stout upper ridge through the weekend. At the surface, high pressure will be centered off the E coast with Srly flow entrenched over the Srn MS Valley. Relief from the heat will be short lived as the aforementioned ridge quickly retrogrades and expands back into the region.
Warmer, dry, and breezy conditions set in through this weekend. An exiting s/wv has brought windy conditions to much of western and northern Arizona today, with the highest gusts over western and central and Coconino County. Arizona will stay in the battleground between low pressure off the west coast and high pressure over the central United States for several more days.
After fairly good coverage of convective rainfall today, increased subsidence near the high center should greatly limit convective coverage and help to enhance the heat. The greatest heat stress however should occur when the high center shifts to our west resulting in more of a west to northwest low level wind trajectory. /EC/ Another disturbance pivoting around the ridge will arrive in our region and settle as a weakness between ridging over the Southern High Plains and just off the Eastern Seaboard as we go into mid to late week.
635 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025 (Through Sunday night) High pressure surface and aloft centered over Georgia at midday.
938 PM EDT Sat Jul 26 2025 A front will stall over the forecast area before lifting north as a warm front Sunday evening. A warm and humid airmass will yield daily shower and thunderstorm chances through midweek, ahead of a cold front bringing cooler temperatures by the end of the week.
613 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025 Unsettled weather will continue through the weekend as the region remains under the influence of a mid level trough/low.
Automated surface observations show temperatures are still sitting in the mid 80s as of 10 PM local time, but heat index values are still in the lower to mid 90s due to dew points in the mid 70s. From synopsis, a high pressure cell centered near the Florida Atlantic Coast will shift westward into the Gulf through the rest of the weekend. Thereafter, generally a split ridge pattern will dominate, keeping breezes light out of the east to southeast.
- Storm chances will mainly become confined over areas west of the Pecos and in the higher terrain into early this coming week. Current satellite imagery and latest RAP analysis depicts an upper-level high over the southeastern CONUS and inverted troughing from northern Mexico extending to eastern New Mexico. Storms are anticipated to initialize in the Davis Mountains early this afternoon before expanding in coverage into the Lower Trans Pecos and southeast New Mexico later today. By tomorrow, guidance has inverted troughing over the region, providing sufficient moisture, lift, and instability for more thunderstorms to develop. Increased cloud coverage over the region due to the inverted troughing over the region will drop high temperatures to slightly below to near normal for this time of year.
An expansive upper ridge will begin to retrograde towards the region today. A few afternoon/showers are still possible over the NW half of the state as upper level energy rotates clockwise around the periphery of high pressure. Rain chances will diminish early week through mid-week as the aforementioned upper ridge moves overtop of the region providing large scale forcing for subsidence. At the surface, high pressure will slide into the region from the SE CONUS.
323 AM EDT Sun Jul 27 2025 Showers and thunderstorms are expected today with a trough of low pressure. Showers and thunderstorms return with a mid week cold front, with cooler and less humid weather to end the week.
- Increasing rain chances will eventually return by late week as the upper ridge shifts farther west as we flip the calendar from July to August.
(This evening through Sunday) The high pressure ridge that was previously sitting across the southeastern U. Highs will mostly be in the lower to middle 90s for most locations. Lows will be in the lower to middle 70s.
Warmer, dry, and breezy conditions set in through this weekend. An exiting s/wv has brought windy conditions to much of western and northern Arizona today, with the highest gusts over western and central and Coconino County. Arizona will stay in the battleground between low pressure off the west coast and high pressure over the central United States for several more days. An inverted trough that moved onshore south of the Rio Grande this morning will work its way toward Arizona by Sunday and Monday. The inverted trough is weakening and looks like it may turn up the western side of the ridge too early and into New Mexico. This would severely curtail our chances for large-scale moisture advection, as the dry trough to our west is fighting for its position the entire time.
156 AM EDT Sun Jul 27 2025 Showers and thunderstorms are expected today with a trough of low pressure. Showers and thunderstorms return with a mid week cold front, with cooler and less humid weather to end the week.
Heat Indices from around 100F to the lower 100s expected across the central and southern east TN valley. Another day of hot and humid conditions across the forecast area as the upper ridge continues to dominate, while slowly retrograding westward. With a strong upper high and gulf moisture in place, Heat Indices will range from near 100F to the lower 100s across the central and southern TN valley. Isolated showers and storms expected through the period, with highest chances during peak heating and focused along the high terrain areas. Those spending time or working outdoors are encouraged to remain hydrated, take frequent breaks in shade or air conditioning, and plan to work during the cooler hours of the day in the morning and late evening. Urban, paved areas also retain additional heat and can often be much warmer than official temperature measurements.
- An approaching cold front early next wee will bring a return of thunderstorms and much cooler highs in the 70s to 80s into midweek. The highest heat index values (in excess of 105) are expected for areas east of HWY 183, where dewpoints in the lower 70s will reside. Lower dewpoints are expected further west, though this will be offset some by warmer high temperatures. The higher humidity will lead to very dangerous heat east of HWY 183, with heat index values approaching 110 degrees in the afternoon.
204 AM EDT Sun Jul 27 2025 Showers and thunderstorms this morning will decrease in coverage this afternoon as a warm front lifts northeastward.
AR will reside on the Wrn periphery of a stout upper ridge through the weekend. At the surface, high pressure will be centered off the E coast with Srly flow entrenched over the Srn MS Valley.
Unfortunately, this means we likely won't mix out afternoon dewpoints quite as aggressively as we did last time, which will allow for much of the area to deal with very hot temperatures in the upper 90's to near 100 in combination with high dewpoints in the lower to middle 70's each afternoon.
An inverted trough will trek to the NW of the area today. Lingering moisture will lead to a low (20-40%) chance of showers and thunderstorms today before high pressure builds in and the moisture diminishes. Temperatures will increase as high pressure builds in, with highs in the 90s along the coast to near 105 over the Brush Country. High pressure will weaken and another inverted trough will develop somewhere over the TX/LA gulf waters and move toward the South Texas coast.
This combined with daytime highs peaking the upper 90s, and dewpoints in the mid/upper 70s (with a few areas seeing dewpoints in the low 80s) will allow for heat indices across our CWA to be in the 110-120 degree range.
Max heat index values are fcst to run just shy of the century mark in the lower elevation to the east of the Allegheny Front. Expansive 590+dm upper ridge/heat dome makes its prescience felt early this week with limited rainfall and sweltering summer sizzle into midweek.
Expect seasonably warm conditions with highs near 90 and lows in the lower 80s. The Atlantic ridge will finally begin workings its way across South and Central Florida heading into mid week. The ridge will not be very strong.
The basic 500 mb pattern is troughing offshore, extending from low pressure in the Gulf of Alaska, and high pressure over the Gulf States. The high pressure will nudge the trough a little today.
- Strong ridge of high pressure over the Southeast US will keep rain chances much below normal through Monday with unusually high temperatures and heat indices.
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Upper ridge over the northern plains beginning to flatten out with the central Canadian trough extending its influence southward.
902 PM PDT Sat Jul 26 2025 A trough across the West Coast will continue cooler than normal weather through the weekend.
High temps today will be in the low to mid 90s across the east coast metro, and mid to upper 90s over inland and SW FL. Despite the well above normal temps, lower than normal dewpoints in the low 70s this afternoon will prevent heat indices from reaching advisory criteria for the necessary duration. Low temps will range from the lower 70s over inland South FL to upper 70s closer to the coast.
141 AM EDT Sun Jul 27 2025 Hot high pressure will continue this heat wave through much of this week.
Another upper low could bring chances for thunderstorms mid week. High pressure is expected to generally remain east of the area. A weak pressure gradient between an offshore ridge and an inland trough will continue to maintain a gentle to moderate wind regime through Sunday.
Above normal temperatures and dry conditions will persist today due Arizona landing between a trough across the West Coast and a large area of high pressure to our east.
(Today and tonight) The high pressure ridge that was previously sitting across the southeastern U. Highs will mostly be in the lower to middle 90s for most locations. Lows will be in the lower to middle 70s.
232 AM EDT Sun Jul 27 2025 -Hot and humid weather continues today with apparent temperatures expected to reach the low 90s.
- Increased rain chances and cooler temperatures may return towards the end of the week. (Today and tonight) Hot and humid conditions will continue today with a mid-level ridge persisting across southern and southeastern U. Oklahoma and north Texas will be on the eastern edge of a low-level thermal ridge that will allow temperatures to rise once again into the mid 90s to low 100s deg F. The lower dew points are expected to result in lower heat indices than yesterday.
Pattern Synopsis and Forecast: Pattern consists of vort/meso low moving through the region/exiting today with moisture advection thanks to high pressure shifting to the southeast across the Mid-Atlantic, along with ridging and high pressure dominating over the southeast. Heat on Sunday: Temperatures on Sunday will rise into the upper 80s to low 90s as high pressure aloft builds overhead, and low level dewpoints remain around 70 degrees.
1222 AM CDT Sun Jul 27 2025 - Warmer today with isolated rain and storm chances across SE KS.
(Today through Monday) An inverted trough is still noted on water vapor imagery, centered over northern Mexico. The moisture aloft with this disturbance will start to slide west, as drier air under a strengthening subtropical ridge moves into the region late Sunday and early Monday. Cloud cover should keep high temperatures down a couple degrees once again, but it will still be humid, with highs in the lower to middle 90s and heat indices in the 100-107 range.