Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1246 AM CDT Wed May 1 2024 (Tonight) Under the influence of upper level ridging, dry weather remains in place overnight as lows drop into the mid to upper 50s. (Wednesday through Thursday night) High pressure will become established across the Tennessee Valley Wednesday and Thursday, promoting mostly sunny and dry conditions both days. In fact, a pronounced warm-up will take place, especially by Thursday as the mid/upper ridge axis begins to amplify and winds veer to a southerly direction. Cloud cover will begin to increase by Thursday evening and especially late Thursday night as another mid/upper trough swings into the Great Lakes -- with its associated cold front shifting through the mid/lower Mississippi Valley.
Changeable weather will continue into the weekend with a series of weak fronts moving through the region and brief periods of high pressure keeping temperatures near or slightly above seasonal averages. A quick moving, weak low pressure will drop out of Canada tonight increasing rain chances mainly towards the Canadian border and down the Greens into Thursday; light QPF is expected with northern Greens picking up around 0.
Cold front was nearing the Mississippi River at 2 AM, and will exit eastern areas prior to sunrise. Northwest winds post- frontal will remain gusty through midday/early afternoon, especially north of I-80 where gusts to 30 mph possible before winds diminish mid to late PM as high pressure builds in. Thursday will feature rounds of showers and storms between the lifting warm front during the day and cold front Thursday evening/night.
- Cold front Thursday morning brings rain and snow showers with isolated thunderstorms.
KEY MESSAGES: - Warm and mostly sunny today under building high pressure. ------------------------------------------------------------------ Warm and dry weather is in store today with a weak upper ridge building overhead. A weak front pushes into the area from the northwest overnight but only brings a wind shift as convection will struggle to develop given the lack of moisture and ascent beneath the upper ridge.
Satellite imagery paints a picture of clear skies over Arizona with an approaching trough moving from the Great Basin. The trough will pass to the north today and resulting in the continuation of warm temperatures and a breezier afternoon. As the week progresses, the synoptic pattern will be a westerly zonal flow keeping temperatures in the upper 80s to the lower 90s for the rest of the week. The ensemble models show a trough moving into the western coast with some differences within the longer range models by the weekend. The GEFS still and continue to lean into a deeper trough solution that could bring a little more cooling to the region.
1136 PM MDT Tue Apr 30 2024 - Isolated showers northern plains and mountains tonight - Cooler late Wednesday into Thursday with a quick round of snow showers in the mountain and rain showers and thunderstorms on the plains.
A cold front approaching from the north is forecast to bring gusty northerly winds to Esmeralda, Inyo, and parts of Nye and western Lincoln counties tonight. The highest concern will be in the Bishop area and along the Owens Valley where gusts could approach or exceed advisory level at times after midnight. For Las Vegas, the cold front is forecast to reach the valley after daybreak with gusts in the 20-30 mph range over the northwest and western parts of the valley. On Wednesday, temperatures will drop back toward seasonal averages and gusty north-northwest winds will pick up as a result of a closed low pushing through the Intermountain West and Great Basin.
347 AM EDT Wed May 1 2024 A cold front will move south of the area today. Weak high pressure will build over the area tonight. A backdoor cold front will move across the area Thursday night and settle south of the area over the weekend. It will be cooler and less humid today with temperatures in the mid 80s.
The weather for today will largely be similar to yesterday since the trough is still present over South Florida, so expect more scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. Temperatures will range from the low to mid 80s over the east coast metro areas to the upper 80s and near 90 over the interior sections today and tomorrow.
Winds will stay light through the period, but overall a pretty quiet period as ridging takes back over until the weekend.
318 AM EDT Wed May 1 2024 Weak low pressure will pass south of the Gulf of Maine this morning. High pressure builds to the north of the region tonight, followed by weak low pressure passing to the southwest Thursday.
Dry conditions with above normal temperatures will persist through Thursday morning as high pressure remains in place.
1123 PM EDT Tue Apr 30 2024 -Showers give way to clearing skies and some patchy fog tonight -Warm/dry weather with lower humidity Wednesday-Thursday -Trending unsettled into the weekend with rain likely Sat/Sun THe only lingering showers are across the Lower Susquehanna Valley as of 10PM with all lightning activity now over. Highs on Wednesday in the middle 70s to near 80 are +10 to +15 compared to average and Thursday will a few degrees warmer for much of the Commonwealth.
High pressure will then prevail through late week, before a weak cold front stalls in the vicinity this weekend. The trough axis will shift offshore just before sunrise and the convective coverage is expected to diminish. Lows will be some 5-10F degrees warmer than last night.
352 AM CDT Wed May 1 2024 Today and tonight: Warmer than normal temperatures and dry weather will continue through tonight. Early morning surface analysis had a 1016mb high centered over the Appalachians that was ridging back across our CWA. Tonight the moisture increase will help hold temperatures in the low to mid 60s.
And when a storm does set up over the area, a quick 2-3 inches will be possible given that training is likely due to the lower wind shear.
At the same time the 700-mb trof axis continued to hold over the same locations. while the parent 500-mb trof axis slowly shifted eastward into Northeast Oklahoma. the surface boundary is expected to sag southeast as the 700-mb trof axis moves more into Western Arkansas and the 500-mb trof axis becomes positioned over Southeast Oklahoma/Northwest Arkansas. (Wednesday through Tuesday) Persistent upper-level troughing will help maintain near to slightly below average temperatures through the remainder of the workweek and even into the upcoming weekend. Weak mid/upper-level forcing will support (mostly) diurnally-driven isolated showers and thunderstorms each afternoon, with best chances (20-30%) occurring in the higher terrain areas of southeast OK and western AR.
625 PM CDT Tue Jul 23 2024 (This afternoon through Wednesday night) A much quieter day is underway with the stalled front now shoved all the way down into Mexico and the upper trough starting to lift out of the southern Plains. High temperatures rebound considerably compared to yesterday with plenty of sunshine and many sites have warmed into the low 80s. Upper ridging off to our west builds stronger and a bit further east heading into tomorrow. Temperatures warm up another 10 or so degrees compared to today, topping out in the low to mid 90s for most.
A cold front could move through the area this weekend.
- Smoke shifts east with the upper level ridge. Latest upper air analysis shows the ridge centered over Nevada. East of the ridge the upper level winds continue to bring smoke south from Canada. Highs will be warmer as the ridge slowly shifts east.
657 PM CDT Tue Jul 23 2024 (This evening through Wednesday Night) An upper-level trough across Texas into the Red River Valley of north Texas and Oklahoma will be the main catalyst driving the weather pattern through the short-term period. The highest coverage of precipitation will likely be across Deep East Texas and north Louisiana with lesser amounts along and north of the I-30 corridor.
847 PM CDT Tue Jul 23 2024 - High pressure will dominate the latter half of the week with at or just below average temperatures.
The culprits are a weak tropical wave interacting with an upper trough just to our NW. However, severe weather may be on the table as the possibility still exists for an area of low pressure to develop inland. Given the expected abundant cloud cover and high storm coverage, the high-temperature forecast went lower than the NBM and more in line with the bottom range of MOS guidance.
1027 PM EDT Tue Jul 23 2024 High pressure will persist across the Atlantic while weak low pressure lingers across the Southeast. High pressure aloft will be centered over Bermuda, placing the forecast area within the western periphery of the feature.
654 PM CDT Tue Jul 23 2024 (This evening through Wednesday) High pressure will remain to the southeast through the short term with southwest flow keeping plenty of moisture over the state.
A prominent area of high pressure centered over southern Nevada to Death Valley has already been growing through the day today, and will continue to do so tomorrow.
The upper level trough axis is forecast to move east into the I-35 corridor region tonight and Wednesday, sharpen and cut off Wednesday night near or just east of I-35.
High pressure will nudge eastward over South Florida, maintaining east coast sea breeze dominance across the area and leading to a pinned Gulf breeze along the coast. High temperatures will reach the lower 90s across the area each day with heat index values flirting with Heat Advisory criteria today and tomorrow.
338 AM EDT Wed Jul 24 2024 A cold front will sag south into the middle Ohio Valley today bringing a chance for thunderstorms.
(Today and tonight) Upper level high pressure will remain anchored near Las Vegas, Nevada, with a trough extending from the western Great Lakes to the Lone Star state. Today's high temperatures will be warmer, especially on the Caprock where heights will increase the most with 24-hr change around +5 degrees there and closer to +2 degrees east of the escarpment.
While the upper level trough axis remains stagnated just north and west of our CWA this evening, the remaining convection remains entrenched across our southern zones where higher pwats of near 2 inches resides. 5 inch but given respect to the upper trough, only backed off pops to slight chance variety for the remainder of the night near and north of the I-20 Corridor. (This evening through Wednesday Night) An upper-level trough across Texas into the Red River Valley of north Texas and Oklahoma will be the main catalyst driving the weather pattern through the short-term period. The highest coverage of precipitation will likely be across Deep East Texas and north Louisiana with lesser amounts along and north of the I-30 corridor.
597 DM upper high centered over the Great Basin will continue hot weather across interior NorCal today with widespread moderate to major heat risk.
Due to the reduced rain chances, I have increased the highs a touch.
This feature cuts off of the parent trough and remains in the vicinity of the I-35 corridor or a bit farther east tonight into Thursday. For today, this means the highest chances for precipitation have shifted east with the best chances east of the I-35 corridor this afternoon.
Decreased chances for showers and thunderstorms today, as the Atlantic ridge axis drifts well north of the local area. Prevailing southeasterly flow will increase slightly today on the western periphery of the ridge, advecting drier air into the local area. The highest chances look to be over the interior, which will be closest to the sea breeze collision. High temperatures this afternoon will reach the lower to mid-90s, with peak heat indices 103-107.
(Wednesday through Thursday night) Stacked ridging starts to get a bit more squeezed Wednesday and into Thursday. A frontal boundary to the northwest makes some progress southeastward into central GA through Wednesday before stalling out, while an upper low east of the Bahamas slowly pivots further northwestward towards the FL peninsula.
Expansive high pressure over the North Atlantic will undulate in terms of both strength and location. From synopsis, a ridge axis associated with expansive high pressure over the North Atlantic will remain north of the Florida Keys coastal waters, resulting in moderate east to southeast breezes prevailing across the Keys coastal waters through Thursday night.
Slightly cooler weather today with more cooling through the end of the week. (Today and tonight) Temperatures are running about 5 degrees warmer than this time yesterday, but the forecast continues to improve for the remainder of the week. Low temperatures will be about 5-10 degrees cooler tonight, and the Heat Advisories are all set to expire at 11 PM.
- A cold front will bring a better chance for thunderstorms (30-50%) Wednesday afternoon/evening, followed by cooler and drier weather for the end of the week. The exception may be locations along/north of a Canton to Bloomington line that may experience isolated showers through the night as a weak cold front sags southward into the region. Barnes The cold front will gradually sink southward Wednesday night into Thursday. Once the boundary pushes into the Ohio River Valley, a cooler/drier airmass will trickle into central Illinois resulting in below normal temperatures for the end of the week. Coolest period will be Thursday/Thursday night when highs stay mostly in the lower to middle 80s and overnight lows dip into the upper 50s and lower 60s. The persistent upper trough over the Great Lakes/Ohio River Valley will weaken and shift eastward by this weekend.
Afternoon high temperatures on Wednesday will remain blunted by more widespread clouds and convection, ranging from the near 80 in far north Georgia to the low 90s in Middle Georgia.
Humidity levels will improve slightly due to cooler temperatures on Thursday, but strong winds will continue to raise fire weather concerns.
- Much warmer this weekend (upper 80s/low 90s), with the return of shower and thunderstorm chances. Observations reveal that a cold front extends from the Lac Qui Parle/Swift county line to the southeast towards Mankato, extending further east towards Rochester. Temperatures are on track to reach the low to mid 80s across western Minnesota and the mid to upper 70s across eastern MN and western WI.
- Smoke shifts east with the upper level ridge. Latest upper air analysis shows the ridge centered over Nevada. East of the ridge the upper level winds continue to bring smoke south from Canada. Highs will be warmer as the ridge slowly shifts east. For the weekend, the upper pattern is still forecast to have a trough trying to spread out over the Northwest CONUS with the main ridge axis pushing through the Eastern CONUS.
Overnight, low stratus clouds are predicted to redevelop across the region as we will remain in a moist/deep-layer SW flow regime to the east of a mid-level trough over the southern Plains. Highs will be a bit cooler and in the upper 70s-lower 80s.
High pressure ridge will remain in control into early weekend, providing generally favorable boating conditions through the period.
At the same time the 700-mb trof axis continued to hold over the same locations. while the parent 500-mb trof axis slowly shifted eastward into Northeast Oklahoma. the surface boundary is expected to sag southeast as the 700-mb trof axis moves more into Western Arkansas and the 500-mb trof axis becomes positioned over Southeast Oklahoma/Northwest Arkansas.
A dry pattern will be settling over the Northland today through the remainder of the workweek as high pressure builds. A ridge, who's axis is currently located over the Intermountain West, will slowly propagate eastward over the next few days.
Overnight, low stratus clouds are predicted to redevelop across the region as we will remain in a moist/deep-layer SW flow regime to the east of a mid-level trough over the southern Plains. Highs will be a bit cooler and in the upper 70s-lower 80s. The 12Z suite of global models suggests that a moist southwesterly flow regime aloft will persist across the region through at least the first half of the weekend, as a subtropical high in the mid/upper-levels becomes established across the northeastern Gulf of Mexico and the trough (initially over the southern Plains) begins to lift northeastward around the amplifying ridge aloft. Although moisture will remain abundant aloft, some drying should occur in the lower/mid-levels and this will contribute a gradual decrease in chances for showers and thunderstorms heading into the upcoming weekend.
Low (10-20%) potential for a few showers and thunderstorms returns across southeast Oklahoma this afternoon, as a weak trough axis/mid- level vorticity maxima consolidates across the area.
Upper level trough over Western Washington through Thursday.
High temperatures are forecast to be a degree or two warmer than yesterday across eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas.
(Today through Thursday) A mid- to upper-level trough will continue to deepen and move farther south into South Texas today and tomorrow, accompanied by a weak stationary boundary that will drift just north of the area. The coverage will largely depend on the position of the trough. Temperatures will be moderated by extensive cloud cover and rainfall, with highs in the mid 80s to low 90s and overnight lows in the low to mid 70s for both today and tomorrow.
(Today through Thursday afternoon) Upper level ridge strengthens a bit for today decreasing cloud cover and shower coverage over the area even more compared to yesterday.
- Scattered showers and thunderstorms Wednesday ahead of and along a cold front. - Warmer, drier weather is anticipated late week through the weekend with highs in the mid to upper 80s. A cold front currently positioned over southern Minnesota and central Wisconsin will be the focus of the next 24 hours or so. This weak cold front moves in from the northwest overnight into the day on Wednesday, bringing the best chances all week for showers and storms. Late in the week, another area of high pressure settles in across the Great Lakes region from Canada. As upper level ridging sets up across the eastern CONUS, temperatures will warm throughout the weekend into the upper 80s to near 90.
- Marginal risk (level 1 out of 5) today for much of central Illinois as a cold front makes its way across the region.
- Moderate to minor flooding continues on parts of the Mississippi River with minor flooding on the lower Rock River.
232 AM MDT Wed Jul 24 2024 The ridge axis centered over central MT will continue to slowly shift east, bringing the highest temperatures of the week to today and Thursday, with highs reaching up to 107. On Thursday, the ridge is expected to shift far enough east that locations west of Billings will see highs in the upper 90s while the highest temps linger over the east. Additionally, a cold front moving through the area is expected to bring stronger wind gusts, around 25 to 35 mph. With RHs remaining in the teens and twenties and fuels outside of the highest elevations ready to go, a Fire Weather Watch is in place for Thursday.
118 AM EDT Wed Jul 24 2024 - Rain showers gradually tapering off this evening into tonight - AM clouds and a few showers give way to clearing Wednesday afternoon - Temperatures becoming very warm this weekend - No widespread precipitation expected from Wednesday afternoon through at least the weekend Midlevel troughing is in place over the upper Great Lakes early this afternoon. Great Lakes troughing plaguing the region today will shift eastward Wednesday into Thursday while ridging connected from the Desert Southwest high expands into the Canadian Prairies. Wednesday will likely start out cloudy with perhaps some lingering upslope drizzle/showers in the higher terrain, but a concerted clearing trend is expected for the afternoon hours.
This moisture at the upper levels was moving in a SW-NE manner, rounding the SE portion of an upper trough extending southward from NE Canada to the southern Great Plains.
A high pressure then moves in Wednesday that will keep us dry and sunny for the rest of the work week. As the warm air mass under an upper level ridge moves east, temperatures will increase throughout the rest of the week.
This activity is largely tied to an upper level jet streak oriented SW-to-NE across the state with the parent upper trough just to the west.
1049 PM CDT Tue Jul 23 2024 (This evening through Wednesday) Our forecast remains mostly dry in the short term with slightly cooler than average temperatures for Wednesday and a potential for patchy fog in the morning across southeast Oklahoma as well as late afternoon heat-driven storms across our southeast although coverage would be very isolated and weak. The axis of our upper trough will start shifting eastward eventually over southeast Oklahoma by Wednesday while down at the surface a stationary front stretched across far southeast may lift as a warm front into our southeast CWA before washing out as light southeast winds veer.
143 AM CDT Wed Jul 24 2024 -Patchy fog this morning diminishes after sunrise - Low end (10-20%) chance for an isolated shower of thunderstorm today though most will stay dry -Dry weather and above normal temperatures return to the forecast for the second half of the week Upper level troughing that has influence our weather for the last several day will gradually shift to the east of our area today. Otherwise expect rising heights over the forecast area today as stout ridging to our west begins to influence our weather today.
1202 AM CDT Wed Jul 24 2024 (This afternoon through Wednesday night) A much quieter day is underway with the stalled front now shoved all the way down into Mexico and the upper trough starting to lift out of the southern Plains. High temperatures rebound considerably compared to yesterday with plenty of sunshine and many sites have warmed into the low 80s. Upper ridging off to our west builds stronger and a bit further east heading into tomorrow. Temperatures warm up another 10 or so degrees compared to today, topping out in the low to mid 90s for most.
127 AM EDT Wed Jul 24 2024 High pressure will persist across the Atlantic while weak low pressure lingers across the Southeast. High pressure aloft will be centered over Bermuda, placing the forecast area within the western periphery of the feature.
Surface lee troughing will allow winds to shift to the south/southeast during the overnight hours and will help warm overnight lows by a few degrees over last night. The upper high over the southwestern CONUS will begin to slowly push eastward late tonight and through tomorrow.
(Today through Thursday night) High pressure will continue to expand and bring warmer temperatures. On Thursday flow will become a bit more northeasterly as the ridges takes a bit of the positive tilt from the upper trough moving through the Pacific Northwest.
359 AM EDT Wed Jul 24 2024 * Scattered showers and thunderstorms expected through early afternoon as a cold front tracks through the area.
For the remainder of the week, weak upper level ridging will remain across the region while an upper level trough moves across the northeast U. At the surface, high pressure will continue to ridge west across the Florida peninsula with a southeast to south flow across the area. Abundant moisture will remain across the area today and with an increased southeast flow, sea breeze thunderstorm regime 7, so expect the highest rain chances to occur late in the afternoon into this evening around the Interstate 75 corridor westward before moving out into the gulf waters later this evening and overnight.
(Today through Thursday) A broad upper-level trough is still in place to our north with moist, southwesterly flow present across Middle TN.
Anyway, we'll settle into the low 70s tonight, and most of the area is already in the 70s thanks to rain-cooled air.