Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1231 PM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 (Today through Friday) Key Messages: - Hazardous marine/coastal conditions expected through the weekend Conditions will continue to dry out behind the front yielding highs in the lower 90s today with lows in 60s across the region! Exciting right? We can enjoy that the next couple nights with light and variable winds. There after due to 10-12 second period swells associated with Hurricane Helene in the eastern Gulf of Mexico, those Small Craft Advisory conditions will persist mainly in the offshore waters with minor coastal flooding possible during the high tide cycle. With seas remaining agitated the high risk of rip currents will also be extended through the weekend.
A large upper-level ridge currently dominates the Rocky Mountains with the high pressure system stretching over SW Kansas. The east- central CONUS has an upper-level low pressure system. The ridging present over the Rockies has vertical continuity with highs throughout the entire atmospheric column. Both ensembles and various models depict a holding pattern with the upper- level ridging maintaining itself over the forecast period for at least the next few days.
The axis of a highly anomalous ridge is pushing over the area today, and the surface pressure trough located near the WY/NE border is pulling westerly downslope flow across most of southeast Wyoming. An associated weak cold front will manage to come this far south later this afternoon and evening, bringing a brief period of gusty north to northeast winds over the High Plains.
Trends continue to indicate the mid-level low and remnants of Hurricane Helene remain southeast of the area with mid-level ridging influencing the Upper Mississippi River Valley. High pressure and mid-level ridging located over much of the central United States will continue to influence the Upper Mississippi River Valley this afternoon and overnight.
Highly amplified upper ridge will gradually become more west to east oriented through the period, but temperatures will remain above normal and no precip on the horizon. Most of the lowland areas will be in the 95-98 degree range.
Winds decrease this evening and become light/variable, which should continue through Friday as upper ridge rebounds during the day.
Today will be dry with warmer afternoon temperatures for the interior.
Issued by National Weather Service Denver CO 148 PM MDT Thu Sep 26 2024 - Weak front will push across region tomorrow morning bringing slightly cooler temps to the plains. This front will bring slightly cooler weather to the plains tomorrow afternoon, with temps expected to be about 3-5 degrees cooler over the plains as compared to today. It is expected to remain dry over the lower elevations tomorrow. Over the mtns and valleys, little change in temps are expected, with the main change being a chance of some showers over the higher terrain tomorrow afternoon, with the overall best chance of precip over the CONTDVD.
Very warm and dry conditions continue across the Southwest as high pressure dominates. A high pressure ridge remains large and in charge across the Southwest resulting in 10-15 degree above average temperatures, light southerly winds, and very dry conditions. Fair weather cumulus clouds have developed this afternoon mainly along and northeast of the higher terrain. Don't be surprised to see/smell smoke from ongoing prescribed burns and wildfires in the High Country today, especially near Flagstaff where smoke and haze could impact areas near the airport once again overnight.
SKC is expected overnight, although areas of cirrus and some AC cigs should begin to spread SSE into portions of SW AR by the end of the TAF period on the backside of an upper low that will drift into the mid and Lower MS Valley.
ridge low pattern extending from the EPac through the Southeast. The northern extend of the ridge over us is getting deformed a bit by a more robust wave moving through the northern stream near the Canadian/US border. The interface between this wave and the ridge has tightened the thermal profile aloft. A weak low level boundary connected to the northerly wave looks to dive down the High Plains of CO tomorrow morning and this added upslope looks to help form these mainly terrain based storms tomorrow.
Above normal temperatures and dry conditions will continue to be the main story with high pressure dominating the Southwest. Scattered, fair weather cumulus clouds could develop along the high terrain this afternoon, as everywhere else should be mostly clear. /Canada border today, but shouldn't bring any impacts to Arizona due to the impressive ridge that has settle across the Southwest. This area of high pressure will wobble around day-to-day, but ultimately our story won't alter much. The previously mentioned upper-level ridge looks to weaken, but still remain in place over Arizona. The ECMWF model does show a large trough sweeping in from off the Pacific Northwest Coast by the first weekend in October.
218 PM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 - Dry conditions expected over the next 7 days - Gradual warming trend through the weekend As of 215 PM, the stretch of quiet weather is continuing today with upper level ridging expanding across the Plains. The lone exception is southeast KS, where diurnal cumulus have formed on the western periphery of a cutoff upper low. An interesting weather scenario will play out later tonight and into the weekend with the remnants of Hurricane Helene interacting with the aforementioned cutoff upper low. Meanwhile, temperatures will continue to gradually increase through the weekend with highs returning to the low to mid 80s.
As Helene continues its ENE track, late morning model guidance highlighting a closed low circulating over western TN and western KY. The lack of cloud cover combined with sufficient daytime heating will help afternoon highs in the low 80s across the area. Early morning satellite imagery/RAP analysis showed the circulation around a closed low spinning over western TN and western Kentucky. This evening while the closed low is over northern Mississippi it will help draw rain associated with Helene south and into our northern zones. Otherwise, temperatures will continue to be cooler than normal through the period.
Upper low remains stationary in the middle of the Mississippi Valley while Hurricane Helene continues to head toward the Florida panhandle. Upper ridging holds strong from northern Mexico through the Northern Plains. With the ridge dominating over the local area, this keeps the quiet weather pattern in place.
While this low continues to circulate over northern Mississippi, it will help bring in some low end rain chances (around 20%) associated with Helene south and into our northern zones. Cloud cover should begin to gradually increase from the north heading into the overnight period as the aforementioned closed low remains over the Mid-South. Expect overnight lows to drop into the low 60s across the area. Heading into Friday, the tropical moisture associated with Helene combined with the closed low over the Mid-South will introduce mid-high rain chances (between 25-70%) mainly for areas along and north of I-20 by Friday afternoon. With the closed low beginning to tighten across the southeast CONUS along with a 5 to 7 mb pressure gradient, areas into our northern zones could see sustained winds of 20-25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph.
(Tonight through Friday night) High pressure will continue to settle southward over the area tonight and Friday. Daytime highs on Friday will be warmer than today and 5-8F above normal, as a dry profile during daytime with full sun produces near maximal sensible heating.
While our upper level trough forms a large and deep closed low over eastern Arkansas and western Tennessee, Hurricane Helene will be approaching landfall along the Florida panhandle, overnight tonight into tomorrow morning. The effects of this pattern on ArkLaTex weather will take the form of a few rounds of showers and storms across our northeastern zones Friday afternoon, swept in from the north on the western fringes of the upper level closed low to our northeast. In a nutshell, the dry airmass introduced this week by our recent cold front will stick around, allowing for warm afternoons and pleasantly cool mornings.
(This afternoon through Friday night) Ridging remains in place and will keep us dry for the foreseeable future. A weak cold front arrives late Friday and basically just keeps everything the same as it has been.
Large area of high pressure remains sprawled across the Central US early this morning. Broad high pressure will remain centered over Wisconsin and Michigan for the next 24 hours (at least). An strong and large upper level ridge continues to dominate the western U. Higher upper level heights bleed into northern MI, leading to warmer temperatures.
(This evening through Friday Night) High pressure will continue to build across the Southern Plains as the departing frontal boundary moves well offshore. Mostly clear skies, light north winds and low humidity will lead to a cooler night.
The highest gust observed so far for this event has been at Boca Chica where a peak gust to 64 mph occurred very early this morning around 430 am. From synopsis, Hurricane Helene, located around 250 miles west of Key West, will continue to produce tropical storm force breezes through the afternoon hours with the highest seas and strongest breezes occurring now. Sustained winds are between 25 to 35 knots, and gusts are reaching the lower to upper 40s (higher winds are at EYW).
(This evening through Friday) Clear skies and light winds will continue through this evening under an upper ridge, with high temperatures today reaching the mid-to- upper 80s and overnight lows in the mid-to-upper 50s. Sunny skies will persist Friday and rising upper heights will allow for slightly warmer temperatures, potentially near 90 in some locations.
Very nice weather ongoing across the area this afternoon as drier air continues to spread southward in the wake of an overnight cold front. Northerly winds have been somewhat gusty amid a tightening pressure gradient between high pressure stretching from the Great Lakes southwest to Texas and what is now Major Hurricane Helene over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Under sunny to mostly sunny skies, temperatures are in the lower to middle 80s across the region. Overnight lows tonight will be a little cooler than last night, with temperatures falling into the lower 60s across much of the area. Friday night low temps are expected to be in the low to middle 60s, which is right in line with late September normals.
Large and anomalously strong upper ridging over the Great Plains into Upper Midwest can be seen on water vapor imagery this afternoon.
Lows will range from the lower 70s inland, to the upper 70s coast.
A cold front continues to remain in place over the western Florida panhandle extending NNE into the north central portions of Georgia.
/26/ (Thursday through Friday) Mostly quiet weather is anticipated for the short-term, now that the trough and cold front have moved through the region. Afternoon highs should range in the low to mid-80s, with lows tonight dropping into the upper-50s and low- 60s. However, by Friday morning, rain chances will begin to increase, as Hurricane Helene finally begins to interact with the closed low to our north in a Fujiwara effect.
Cold front beginning of the week will clear out humidity and lead to more seasonable temps. Helene is expected to merge with the upper level low south and east of the area through tomorrow afternoon. To start the period, the closed low to our southeast eventually merges with what should be post tropical Helene. At the same time, a ridge is expected to build into our area.
Friday will be dry with warmer afternoon temperatures for the interior. A thermal trough will set up along the south Oregon coast resulting in increasing north winds along the coast.
The upper level ridge will be positively tilted over the Tri- State area as an upper trough swings over the Northwest CONUS. The ridge will remain the dominant feature over the region through the overnight hours tonight before the trough slides over the High Plains on Friday. Overnight Friday, the upper ridge is expected to strengthen once again over the Western CONUS and quickly push the trough further east.
Onshore flow has weakened this afternoon an offshore low pressure is moving further west, allowing upper level ridging to build in the Four Corners region. As we move through the overnight hours and into tomorrow, ridging will begin fill in over interior NorCal and will cause our high temperatures to climb 6-12 degrees higher than today's forecast high's across the region. Along with the warmer temperatures, onshore flow will remain weak, causing our humidity values to drop into the teens across the area.
1208 PM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 (Today through Friday) The passage of a cold front this morning will bring drier conditions and gusty winds this afternoon, with a minor impact on temperatures. By Friday afternoon, high temperatures are expected to be back to the low to mid 90s.
1242 PM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 (Today through Friday) A cold front that was responsible for the development of a few scattered showers and even an isolated strong/severe storm or two continues to push south and east into the Gulf of Mexico this morning. Oh, and cooler temperatures with heights/thicknesses aloft dropping in response to the ULL trying to make it's way a bit closer to the CWFA.
154 PM MDT Thu Sep 26 2024 KEY MESSAGES: - A dry, gusty cold front this afternoon will keep critical fire weather conditions in place through early evening.
Warming trend today into Friday with slightly cooler temps through the weekend. (This evening through Friday) Temperatures on the rise today as high pressure builds aloft and compresses the marine layer. Current temps running around 10-15 degrees warmer than 24 hours ago for areas away from the coastline.
544 PM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 (This afternoon through Friday night) Ridging remains in place and will keep us dry for the foreseeable future. A weak cold front arrives late Friday and basically just keeps everything the same as it has been.
* Wind - Hurricane and tropical storm force winds are occurring and will continue tonight with the highest probabilities along the coast.
605 PM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 (This evening through Friday) Clear skies and light winds will continue through this evening under an upper ridge, with high temperatures today reaching the mid-to- upper 80s and overnight lows in the mid-to-upper 50s. Sunny skies will persist Friday and rising upper heights will allow for slightly warmer temperatures, potentially near 90 in some locations.
Additional thunderstorms look unlikely tonight, but showers should increase in coverage as an upper level low moves south across west Tennessee into north Mississippi. I would suspect that we will see a pretty tight gradient from northeast to southwest across the region with the highest totals over 4 inches in west Tennessee near Paris, tapering off to about an inch in far northwest Arkansas and southeast Arkansas.
Quiet and dry weather conditions resumed today with mild temperatures along the coast and warmer temperatures inland.
The wind switch associated with the next cold front currently stretches from near Rolla down through just east of Bismarck. Large and anomalously strong upper ridging over the Great Plains into Upper Midwest can be seen on water vapor imagery this afternoon.
- Strong northeast winds are expected to develop on Friday and continue Friday night as the remnants of Hurricane Helene move into the lower Ohio river valley. Winds and increasing cloud cover will temper the temperature falls overnight, and lows should only reach the lower to mid 60s for areas east of the Illinois River, with some upper 50s to the west. Most of the precip looks to remain east of I-55 through the period with the highest chances and rainfall amounts being south I-70, where totals will reach 1.
- Strong northeast winds are expected to develop on Friday and continue Friday night as the remnants of Hurricane Helene move into the lower Ohio river valley. Most of the precip looks to remain east of I-55 through the period with the highest chances and rainfall amounts being south I-70, where totals will reach 1.
530 PM MDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Aviation Section Updated Breezy conditions and mild temperatures will continue through the rest of today with warmer conditions expected over the weekend.
836 PM MDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Breezy conditions and mild temperatures will continue through the rest of today with warmer conditions expected over the weekend.
709 PM MDT Thu Sep 26 2024 - Becoming breezy behind a cold front today.
High pressure will continue to build throughout the region this weekend, with light diurnal winds and above normal temperatures.
610 PM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 - Dry conditions expected over the next 7 days - Gradual warming trend through the weekend As of 215 PM, the stretch of quiet weather is continuing today with upper level ridging expanding across the Plains. The lone exception is southeast KS, where diurnal cumulus have formed on the western periphery of a cutoff upper low. An interesting weather scenario will play out later tonight and into the weekend with the remnants of Hurricane Helene interacting with the aforementioned cutoff upper low. Meanwhile, temperatures will continue to gradually increase through the weekend with highs returning to the low to mid 80s.
621 PM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 (This evening through Friday Night) High pressure will continue to build across the Southern Plains as the departing frontal boundary moves well offshore. Mostly clear skies, light north winds and low humidity will lead to a cooler night.
Issued by National Weather Service Denver CO 543 PM MDT Thu Sep 26 2024 - Weak front will push across region tomorrow morning bringing slightly cooler temps to the plains. This front will bring slightly cooler weather to the plains tomorrow afternoon, with temps expected to be about 3-5 degrees cooler over the plains as compared to today. It is expected to remain dry over the lower elevations tomorrow. Over the mtns and valleys, little change in temps are expected, with the main change being a chance of some showers over the higher terrain tomorrow afternoon, with the overall best chance of precip over the CONTDVD.
Temperatures will run a tad warmer tomorrow with highs in the upper 80s to mid 90s range, and overnight lows running from the mid 60s inland to the mid 70s along the coast.
628 PM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Very nice weather ongoing across the area this afternoon as drier air continues to spread southward in the wake of an overnight cold front. Northerly winds have been somewhat gusty amid a tightening pressure gradient between high pressure stretching from the Great Lakes southwest to Texas and what is now Major Hurricane Helene over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Under sunny to mostly sunny skies, temperatures are in the lower to middle 80s across the region. Overnight lows tonight will be a little cooler than last night, with temperatures falling into the lower 60s across much of the area. Friday night low temps are expected to be in the low to middle 60s, which is right in line with late September normals.
Breezy conditions and mild temperatures will continue through the rest of today with warmer conditions expected over the weekend.
High temperatures will be mainly in an upper 80s to mid 90s range while low temperatures will be mainly in the 60s inland and in the lower 70s at the coast.
South Texas lies in between a closed low over the Central Mississippi Valley and a mid- level ridge across the Rockies and Central Plains. This high energy swell train should push water up near the dunes through the morning (high tide occurs at 3:24 AM) slowly receding this afternoon as the swell dampens out.
/Issued 1236 AM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024/ /Through Saturday/ A stagnant weather pattern will persist into the weekend due to the blocking implications of Helene on the mid-level flow regime. The low dewpoints will allow overnight lows to fall very effectively, with a handful of readings in the 50s possible outside of urban environments.
Trends continue to indicate the mid-level low and remnants of Hurricane Helene remain southeast of the area with mid-level ridging influencing the Upper Mississippi River Valley. High pressure and mid-level ridging located over much of the central United States will continue to influence the Upper Mississippi River Valley this afternoon and overnight. Trends continue to indicate the mid-level low and remnants of Hurricane Helene remain southeast of the area with mid-level ridging influencing the Upper Mississippi River Valley. The aforementioned high pressure and mid-level ridging will continue to influence the Upper Mississippi River Valley through the weekend as a mid-level cutoff low centered over southern Illinois slowly shifts eastward and merges with the remnants of Hurricane Helene.
415 AM EDT Fri Sep 27 2024 Dry weather returns into the weekend as high pressure moves overhead.
We will be under the influence of dry northerly flow aloft, as well as dry air in the lower levels. Lows tonight will be a few degrees warmer, in the mid 50s to around 60 degrees.
Will see another warming trend with warmer temperatures today as flow aloft turns more southerly with upper ridge axis shifting east.
1239 AM MDT Fri Sep 27 2024 - Weak front will push across region tomorrow morning bringing slightly cooler temps to the plains. This front will bring slightly cooler weather to the plains tomorrow afternoon, with temps expected to be about 3-5 degrees cooler over the plains as compared to today. It is expected to remain dry over the lower elevations tomorrow. Over the mtns and valleys, little change in temps are expected, with the main change being a chance of some showers over the higher terrain tomorrow afternoon, with the overall best chance of precip over the CONTDVD.
Lows will range from the lower 70s inland, to the upper 70s coast. (Friday through Saturday night) The remnants of Helene will move well to the north northwest of the area during the day Friday, with a cold front extending from it, stretching down the east coast, and across central FL.
A mid-level closed low continues to meander across the mid/lower Mississippi Valley this morning with Hurricane Helene moving north across Georgia. An upper-level ridge currently extending from the southwest CONUS towards the Great Lakes will be nudged westward through the day as Helene merges with the closed low. The forecast area remains sandwiched in between the western ridge and eastern closed low with little change to the overall airmass expected through the weekend.
Upper ridging over the desert southwest will retreat slightly westward today which may bring a very slight increase in high cloud cover late in the day, but otherwise dry conditions persist with warm daytime highs, seasonable overnight lows, and light winds.
Upper low centered near Memphis helping to accelerate hurricane northward. Both are helping to pump cooler and drier air into the local area. Only real forecast question is whether cloud cover associated with the upper low sinks southward into northern and eastern areas later tonight and Saturday.
Daytime temperatures are forecast to gradually rise to the mid 80s to mid 90s today and the low to mid 90s by Saturday, influenced by both upper and surface ridging. Tonight, mostly clear skies, light winds, and reduced humidity will contribute to cooler conditions, with lows generally dipping into the 60s.
High clouds will continue to increase as well today, which will keep temperatures a bit cooler over the southeastern half of the forecast area, with low to mid 70s expected. Highs on Saturday will be similar to today, with the cooler readings (low 70s) over the far east and southeast, where cloud cover will be most widespread.