Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
555 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024 (Today) Quiet/near seasonal wx conditions prevail across the central TN Valley this early Fri morning, as high pressure remains layered over much of the SE region. This should translate into another quiet/seasonably warm day, as highs climb more into the lower/mid 90s, under mostly sunny skies.
621 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024 (Today through Saturday) With the mid-level ridge in place over Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley, hot and largely rain free conditions are expected for most of the short term forecast period. As for the temperatures, the highs are expected to be in the range of the upper 90s for most of the region, while parts of Zapata and Starr are in the triple digits for today and tomorrow.
The upper level flow will become southwesterly today as western Montana and north central Idaho is situated between high pressure to the east and a low pressure system moving onto the Pacific northwest coastline.
(Today through Saturday) With the mid-level ridge in place over Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley, hot and largely rain free conditions are expected for most of the short term forecast period. As for the temperatures, the highs are expected to be in the range of the upper 90s for most of the region, while parts of Zapata and Starr are in the triple digits for today and tomorrow.
546 AM MDT Fri Jun 14 2024 - Cooler temperatures and scattered showers today across the region. Shower activity becomes more isolated north of the highway 50 corridor and confined to the terrain.
619 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024 (Today and tonight) The benign pattern looks to continue for the short-term with longwave ridging extending northeast out of the Baja California region into Western Texas. Highs today will range from the lower 90s across our eastern counties to around 101 for western portions of the Concho Valley and Big Country. The "cooler" temperatures to the east will be due to higher dewpoints in the upper 60s to near 70 sticking around through the afternoon. Overnight lows will be similar to the past few nights in the low to mid 70s under mostly clear skies.
544 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024 (Today through Saturday) Upper level ridging builds in from the west today with this feature remaining over the area through Saturday.
624 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024 (Today through Saturday night) As of this writing there is a mid to upper level low pressure system sitting over southern CA about to be just south of the southern tip of NV. Today, upper level ridging continues to plague the combined Panhandles with some really warm temperatures as highs reach the mid to upper 90s once again. The higher of this being towards Cimarron County.
731 AM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024 - A weak cold front brings a low chance (10-30%) for a shower or thunderstorm this afternoon through this evening.
410 AM MDT Fri Jun 14 2024 - Cooler temperatures and scattered showers today across the region. Shower activity becomes more isolated north of the highway 50 corridor and confined to the terrain.
634 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024 (Today through Saturday) A strong upper level ridge centered over western TX shifts eastward across the southern Plains today and settles over the Deep South Saturday. Highs today will be in the low to mid 90s, and then in the mid to upper 90s on Saturday.
426 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024 (Today through Saturday afternoon) WV imagery shows an upper trough over the junction of CA/AZ/Baja del Norte/Sonora this morning, deforming the upper ridge to the SSE. The trajectory of the trough will also result in isolated afternoon/evening convection over Southeast New Mexico and adjacent areas of West Texas. Tonight, a 40+kt LLJ is on track to develop, advecting rich Gulf moisture across the lower terrain. Saturday, with the upper trough to the east of the area, the ridge builds back in, increasing thicknesses and bringing highs back to where they were yesterday.
(This evening through Saturday night) Our active synoptic pattern continues as a trough moves across the central CONUS and the high pressure center at the H500 level transitions eastward. High temperatures today and tomorrow will range in the 90's; and with excellent moisture retention, humidity should generally be on the higher side through the weekend. Saturday, a new southwest oriented trough will impact the combined Panhandles but coverage may be more limited unless today's setup under performs.
Temperatures early this afternoon are in the lower to mid 90s, with some scattered stratus clouds streaming across the region. Morning lows will be in the lower tom mid 70s, with highs in the mid to upper 90s on Saturday afternoon. A large trough will develop over the western half of the U.
1224 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024 (Today through Saturday afternoon) WV imagery shows an upper trough over the junction of CA/AZ/Baja del Norte/Sonora this morning, deforming the upper ridge to the SSE. The trajectory of the trough will also result in isolated afternoon/evening convection over Southeast New Mexico and adjacent areas of West Texas. Tonight, a 40+kt LLJ is on track to develop, advecting rich Gulf moisture across the lower terrain. Saturday, with the upper trough to the east of the area, the ridge builds back in, increasing thicknesses and bringing highs back to where they were yesterday.
1253 PM MDT Fri Jun 14 2024 - Cooler temperatures and scattered showers today across the region. Shower activity becomes more isolated north of the highway 50 corridor and confined to the terrain.
Tonight and Saturday Noticeable changes are ahead for us in eastern Idaho as a major pattern change is expected to bring wind and cooler temperatures to the area. Temperatures this afternoon are warm, in the 80s across many of the lower valleys. A potent U/L trough will move into the Pacific NW tomorrow causing the pressure gradient to tighten significantly over our area, especially across the Arco Desert where a High Wind Warning has been issued. Precipitation looks to remain north of our area but we'll see a significant increase in cloud cover compared to previous days as well as much cooler temperatures. Expect highs around 10-15 degrees cooler than Friday which equates to 70s in the lower terrain with 50s and 60s in the mountains.
1232 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024 (Today and tonight) The benign pattern looks to continue for the short-term with longwave ridging extending northeast out of the Baja California region into Western Texas. Highs today will range from the lower 90s across our eastern counties to around 101 for western portions of the Concho Valley and Big Country. The "cooler" temperatures to the east will be due to higher dewpoints in the upper 60s to near 70 sticking around through the afternoon. Overnight lows will be similar to the past few nights in the low to mid 70s under mostly clear skies.
Looking at a wider view across the CONUS, showers and storms were ongoing across much of the High Plains well ahead of a mid-level wave near the Four Corners. Better forcing will also remain just west and north of the area, closer to the trough axis that will remain west of the area. Thunderstorms could occur again tomorrow afternoon as the mid-level trough axis moves into central KS. Stronger low level southerly flow will push the lingering surface boundary to the north as a warm front. Forcing, however, should be a little stronger with the approach of the upper trough axis. Aloft, a more amplified pattern will evolve across the country as an expansive ridge builds over the eastern US and troughing occurs out west.
308 PM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024 (This afternoon through Saturday) At a glance: - Hottest day of the year (so far) to come Saturday - Mostly dry The key player in the next several days' sensible weather will be an amplifying mid-level ridge that gradually makes its way eastward, taking up residence across the Southeast/ECONUS. Widespread highs in the low-to-mid 90s (aside from the terrain of northeast Georgia, which are likely to top out in the 80s) are forecast for this afternoon. An isolated thunderstorm cannot be ruled out, but ridging aloft -- and associated subsidence -- will inhibit more widespread convective initiation.
212 PM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024 A cold front moving through today will bring rain showers and strong to severe storms, with strong winds being the main threat. High pressure builds into the region with summer-like weather this weekend. The initial trough continues south into NEPA. Beyond this is drier stable air ahead of the cold front. The initial trough should slow. The cold front is still north of our area over Lake Ontario. A cold front will move through the region today, bringing rain showers and chances for strong to severe storms. Friday night through Saturday will be quiet, with Saturday being slightly cooler than today, highs in the mid to high 70s today and low to mid 70s Saturday, from the aforementioned cold front that will be passing through today.
255 PM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024 High pressure moves into the region resulting in mostly sunny skies and increasingly warm temperatures.
(Tonight through Saturday night) Looking at the latest GOES 16 regional water vapor imagery, we note the flattened Subtropical Ridge over the Baja of California extending eastward into South Central Texas. An expansive Cu field is noted on visible satellite imagery over central and south Texas this afternoon and that is expected to happen once again on Saturday despite high pressure aloft, as easterly to southeasterly surface flow off the Gulf of Mexico keeps low level moisture in play to form those clouds.
1152 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024 Temperatures have warmed quickly under abundant sunshine and light winds as upper-level ridging builds overhead.
Some tropical moisture still lingers over south florida, from the low pressure surface that has moved off into the Atlantic. Showers and storms should help moderate temperatures throughout the week, keeping the highs a little closer to normal for this time of year.
A low pressure system moving across Arizona today will bring scattered showers and a few thunderstorms, especially across northeastern Arizona.
1213 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024 (Today and tonight) The heat wave intensifies today as a mid-summer-style upper ridge prevails over Oklahoma and northern Texas This will be associated with afternoon temperatures 6 to 12 degrees F.
249 PM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024 A cold front moving through this afternoon will bring rain showers and strong to severe storms, with strong winds being the main threat in northeast PA and Sullivan County NY. High pressure builds into the region with summer-like weather this weekend. The initial trough continues south into NEPA. Behind this is drier stable air ahead of the cold front. The initial trough should slow. Late tonight into Saturday night will be dry and cooler. High pressure will build into the area Saturday night.
With dewpoints in the lower 70s, and expected high temps this afternoon, will go ahead and issue a heat advisory for parts of NE OK until 6 pm.
400 PM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024 - A weak cold front brings a low chance (10-40%) for a shower or thunderstorm through this evening, primarily north of the KY highway 80/Hal Rogers Pkwy/Cumberland Parkway corridor.
If we see any affect, it could be a degree or two cooler tomorrow.
(Today and tonight) The benign pattern looks to continue for the short-term with longwave ridging extending northeast out of the Baja California region into Western Texas. Highs today will range from the lower 90s across our eastern counties to around 101 for western portions of the Concho Valley and Big Country. The "cooler" temperatures to the east will be due to higher dewpoints in the upper 60s to near 70 sticking around through the afternoon. Overnight lows will be similar to the past few nights in the low to mid 70s under mostly clear skies. A large trough will develop over the western half of the U.
The center of the 591dam ridge will shift from Texas to the Deep South through tomorrow resulting in near record temperatures across Central Alabama. Little relief is expected overnight as lows remain anomalously warm with values ranging from the lower to mid 70s. The center of the ridge will be directly overhead by Saturday evening.
Temperatures will be a few degrees above normal today ahead of the cooler system coming in this weekend.
The past few years have seen either the upper high centered directly over us, or weak westerly flow bringing in hot, dry air causing oppressive heat and no rainfall. An upper level low moving across the Central Rockies will help increase and spread some of the showers from the Guadalupes and Sangre de Cristos east into Eddy and Lea counties.
156 PM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024 For the afternoon and evening today we will see if scattered thunderstorms moving in the northwest flow can sustain updrafts against the suppressive effect of the ridge subsidence. Warmer today with continued mostly dry conditions. Discussion: Continued mostly dry weather continues today with northwest flow aloft and upper ridging intensifying across the central CONUS. Subsidence along the eastern periphery of the ridge will continue to limit afternoon convection for our area with subsidence aloft.
(This evening through Saturday Night) Strong subsidence persists across the region as surface and upper-level ridging build overhead.
A low pressure circulation moving into the Pacific Northwest will bring shift to southwesterly flow aloft today. On Saturday, the low moves inland and will push a cold front across the Northern Rockies.
(Rest of Today) Northwesterly flow at the upper-levels persists today in the wake of the trough, just off the US east coast. Models indicate a ridge to build just to the west of the area today, which should allow for some covergence aloft. This process promotes synoptic-scale subsidence of the air above the region and helps to strengthen high pressure. Highs should quickly reach the low to mid 90s by mid afternoon under mostly clear to partly cloudy skies.
MM/25 (Now through Saturday) The heat will slowly crank up the next two days as high pressure builds over the area. Upper ridging will slowly build east across the deep south today leading to rather large subsidence across the area. High pressure will be directly overhead on Saturday likely leading to rather hot and dry conditions across the area.
A frontal boundary extends from the low across east central Florida over Brevard and Osceola county. The highest moisture is to the south of the boundary which is where the highest rain chances is expected into the afternoon. Meanwhile, GOES-16 satellite and water vapor imagery show moisture being advected northeast over south Florida associated with an area of low pressure over the western Carribean and southeastern Gulf of Mexico.
/NEW/ /Through Saturday/ A dominant upper ridge will keep quiet weather in place through the first half of the weekend. Afternoon temperatures will climb into the low to mid 90s today and tomorrow.
(Tonight through Saturday night) A subsident mid level ridge extending across the Southern U. The low level flow will remain weak tonight and early Saturday, however the gradient tightens some by Saturday afternoon as a trough moves into the central plains.
(Tonight) For the rest of this afternoon and tonight, the area will fall under the increasing influence of a ridge building to our west. Cumulus that have managed to develop mainly along the higher terrain will tend to dissipate later today, leaving mostly clear sky conditions overnight.
/Issued 1206 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024/ /Through Saturday/ A dominant upper ridge will keep quiet weather in place through the first half of the weekend. Afternoon temperatures will climb into the low to mid 90s today and tomorrow.
1217 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024 (Rest of Today) Northwesterly flow at the upper-levels persists today in the wake of the trough, just off the US east coast. Models indicate a ridge to build just to the west of the area today, which should allow for some covergence aloft. This process promotes synoptic-scale subsidence of the air above the region and helps to strengthen high pressure. Highs should quickly reach the low to mid 90s by mid afternoon under mostly clear to partly cloudy skies.
1234 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024 (Today through Saturday) Things will be drier today as ridging aloft builds in and PWATs fall to ~1. High temperatures will be much the same as they have been, with highs in the lower 90s along the coast to around 100 over the Brush Country.
115 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024 Temperatures have warmed quickly under abundant sunshine and light winds as upper-level ridging builds overhead.
Because of this, overnight lows will drop into the low 70s across the area. A H5 590 dm ridge will be firmly entrenched over the southeastern CONUS through the weekend. Under the high pressure, the dry airmass will help afternoon highs peak into the 96 - 101 degree range areawide with heat indices around 105 degrees.
1123 AM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024 For the afternoon and evening today we will see if scattered thunderstorms moving in the northwest flow can sustain updrafts against the suppressive effect of the ridge subsidence. Warmer today with continued mostly dry conditions. Discussion: Continued mostly dry weather continues today with northwest flow aloft and upper ridging intensifying across the central CONUS. Subsidence along the eastern periphery of the ridge will continue to limit afternoon convection for our area with subsidence aloft.
The upper level ridge that will be influencing our weather for the foreseeable future is to move to the east over the next 36 hours, and will become overhead by tomorrow afternoon. Thanks to the direct overhead presence of the ridge, the subsidence will intensify and should prevent any convection from forming tomorrow.
This afternoon, southeasterly surface flow has sustained dewpoints in the low 60s across the South Plains and upper 60s to low 70s in the Rolling Plains. Low temperatures tomorrow morning will range from the low 60s to the low 70s, with the higher lows across the Rolling Plains.
1236 PM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024 A cold front moving through today will bring rain showers and strong to severe storms, with strong winds being the main threat. High pressure builds into the region with summer-like weather this weekend. The initial trough continues south into NEPA. Beyond this is drier stable air ahead of the cold front. The initial trough should slow. The cold front is still north of our area over Lake Ontario. A cold front will move through the region today, bringing rain showers and chances for strong to severe storms. Friday night through Saturday will be quiet, with Saturday being slightly cooler than today, highs in the mid to high 70s today and low to mid 70s Saturday, from the aforementioned cold front that will be passing through today.
1046 AM PDT Fri Jun 14 2024 Today will be dry and breezy as a cold front moves through the region.
By mid to late evening, it possible that some of the convection developing to our west will enter mainly northwest Oklahoma, but chances are on the low side.
1255 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024 (Today through Saturday night) As of this writing there is a mid to upper level low pressure system sitting over southern CA about to be just south of the southern tip of NV. Today, upper level ridging continues to plague the combined Panhandles with some really warm temperatures as highs reach the mid to upper 90s once again. The higher of this being towards Cimarron County.
(This afternoon through Saturday) At a glance: - Hottest day of the year (so far) to come Saturday - Mostly dry The key player in the next several days' sensible weather will be an amplifying mid-level ridge that gradually makes its way eastward, taking up residence across the Southeast/ECONUS. Widespread highs in the low-to-mid 90s (aside from the terrain of northeast Georgia, which are likely to top out in the 80s) are forecast for this afternoon. An isolated thunderstorm cannot be ruled out, but ridging aloft -- and associated subsidence -- will inhibit more widespread convective initiation.
558 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024 (Tonight through Saturday night) A subsident mid level ridge extending across the Southern U. The low level flow will remain weak tonight and early Saturday, however the gradient tightens some by Saturday afternoon as a trough moves into the central plains.
700 PM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024 High pressure moves into the region resulting in mostly sunny skies and increasingly warm temperatures.
A weak cold front will drop into the region early this weekend before high pressure builds in from the north. Saturday: The mid-level trough offshore will move away as time progresses. Meanwhile, ridging and High pressure will gradually build over the Southeast. At the surface, a weak cold front will be located just to our north at daybreak. Highs will be in the mid to upper 90s for most areas, except cooler at the beaches. Heat indices will also be in the lower 100s. Overnight lows will be in the lower to mid 70s.
This is in response to a deep upper trough rapidly approaching, and as conditions have become more unstable across southern Colorado this afternoon. Once again, expect the severe risk across the plains to quickly ramp up this afternoon in advance of this upper trough. This moisture along with steep lapse rates is yielding CAPE values up to around 3000 j/kg at this time, with the highest values along and east of a Trinidad to La Junta line. Shear hasn't been overly high today but as this trough shifts east, will see some increases with values of 30-40kt possible across the eastern plains. East of the I-25 corridor, expect rapidly intensifying storms as they move into the higher moisture and instability.
615 PM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024 High pressure moves into the region resulting in mostly sunny skies and increasingly warm temperatures.
702 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024 (Tonight) For the rest of this afternoon and tonight, the area will fall under the increasing influence of a ridge building to our west. Cumulus that have managed to develop mainly along the higher terrain will tend to dissipate later today, leaving mostly clear sky conditions overnight.
Afternoon highs today have been topping out in the middle to upper 90's for most locations, with Saturday looking even warmer as highs soar into the upper 90's to near 100 degrees. Overnight lows will be warm in the lower to middle 70's for most locations tonight. MM/25 (Saturday night through Friday) An upper ridge over the region shifts a bit eastward during the period in response to a Plains upper trof which mostly ejects off across the Great Lakes and a broad upper trof developing over the western Gulf.
555 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024 (Tonight through Saturday night) Looking at the latest GOES 16 regional water vapor imagery, we note the flattened Subtropical Ridge over the Baja of California extending eastward into South Central Texas. An expansive Cu field is noted on visible satellite imagery over central and south Texas this afternoon and that is expected to happen once again on Saturday despite high pressure aloft, as easterly to southeasterly surface flow off the Gulf of Mexico keeps low level moisture in play to form those clouds.
625 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024 (This evening through Saturday Night) Strong subsidence persists across the region as surface and upper-level ridging build overhead.
12 Previous Discussion: /Through Saturday/ A dominant upper ridge will keep quiet weather in place through the first half of the weekend. Afternoon temperatures will climb into the low to mid 90s today and tomorrow.
Water vapor imagery highlights a positively tilted trough axis in the Gulf of Mexico. There were multiple MCVs noted along the trough axis. The Florida Keys are in the diffluent low-level flow between the cyclonic curvature near the Yucatan and the ridge to our east. There are indications from the global models that the mid to upper trough axis may result in some falling heights overnight in the southeastern Gulf and the Keys.