Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
331 AM EDT Thu May 22 2025 An upper level low pressure system will shift slowly east across the Great Lakes today into Friday. An upper level low will shift very slowly east across the lower Great Lakes today. Mid level energy rotating around the low will lead to an increasing chance of showers across the north later this morning, with chances for pcpn then pivoting southeast across the rest of our area through the afternoon. It will also be tough to rule out a few embedded thunderstorms this afternoon, with the best chance for this across our northeast, closer to the upper low.
(Today through Friday) Drier northwesterly flow will continue through today as low level ridging remains in places across the southern MS and Southwestern AL.
Heading into the weekend, the high slides east, as does the heart of the long wave trof and we go a little teleconnected ridging aloft. As energy from the Plains starts to spill into/overtop the weak ridge, it flattens and we get into a little better convective environment as dew points recover into the 50s.
205 AM CDT Thu May 22 2025 - Slightly cooler temperatures on Thursday. Daytime Thursday, short range ensembles agree the weak ridge will slide east, reaching the High Plains by 7pm.
Areas of frost and some freezing temperatures possible Thursday morning. Temperatures remain in the lower to middle 40s as of early this afternoon, except possibly some lower 50s over southwest Bowman county. For tonight, the main concern will be freezing temperatures and possible frost. Just to the west and east of the resulting cloud cover we should see clearing, but this is also where warmer temperatures aloft are located, and also you could see some patchy fog develop. We ended up using the straight NBM ensemble forecast temperatures for lows tonight given the high uncertainty. This puts our normally cold areas from around Hettinger up through Beulah Hazen at or slightly below freezing. In the frost advisory we worded it a little different, mentioning temperatures in the low to mid 30s could harm tender vegetation.
204 AM EDT Thu May 22 2025 Showers will continue overnight through Friday as low pressure lifts north toward the lower Great Lakes. The region has transitioned transition to scattered and occasionally numerous lighter rain showers as low pressure sits northwest of the region and cold advection filters in from the west.
High pressure remains in control over Arizona, keeping warm temperatures and dry conditions in store for today. Afternoon highs today will likely be the warmest so far this year, with highs in the mid 70s F to mid 80s F across the higher terrain and 90s F to near 100F across the lower elevations.
450 AM EDT Thu May 22 2025 An upper low pressure center will remain over the Great Lakes Region for today and tomorrow.
and Florida today as a broad U/L trough develops along the eastern seaboard. A chance of showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms will be possible today across west central and southwest Florida, with the highest pops over the interior due to onshore flow. with the highest pops again over the interior due to onshore west to northwest boundary layer flow. The U/L subtropical ridge will build back over the Florida peninsula during the weekend which will lead to increasing large scale subsidence and warmer temperatures. Weak high pressure will also move over the eastern Gulf and Florida peninsula with boundary layer flow shifting to the south and southeast.
- Cooler and drier weather persists through the end of the work week.
Overall, we're expected a mix of clouds and sun with temperatures slightly below normal with the troughing in place across the region. Any precipitation accumulation would be little to none except for potentially across the highest elevations of the mountains where light rainfall accumulation would be possible.
Otherwise a surface warm front looks to lift northward into western and southern Kansas on the peripheral of this elevated activity with a strong upslope flow regime materializing over southwest Nebraska/northwest Kansas.
This moisture stream contracts later today, undercut by incoming high pressure currently digging in over the Upper Peninsula.
(Today through Friday) An upper level ridge will build in today, keeping our rain chances low (20% or lower) today through Friday. Cloud cover will diminish through the day today which will lead to highs in the upper 80s along the coast to the low 100s across the Brush Country.
Auten 19z/2pm surface analysis shows a 1002mb low over northern Ohio with a trough axis extending westward along the I-80 corridor. A complex upper-level blocking pattern over Canada will result in troughing remaining in place across the Great Lakes through the weekend.
Stacked low pressure rotates in place over the eastern Great Lakes today as a departing upper jet streak exit region orphans it off. Breezy wind around 15 to 25 mph maintains a feed of cool air from the northwest, keeping temps mainly in the lower to mid 50s. Clouds will remain pervasive through the night holding lows in the lower 40s. The low releases eastward and gets absorbed into a late season nor'easter on Friday. By this weekend weak geopotential height rises will commence over the area which should allow upstream high pressure and drier air to nudge in from the west.
Drier air sinks southward into the region from the north behind this trough, allowing for overnight's showers to dissipate and a reprieve from the persistent rainy conditions of the past few days. Drier Conditions Ahead With the aforementioned dry air advection into the region for the end of the week combined with a 500hPa ridge building into the region, drier conditions are expected through the weekend.
306 AM EDT Thu May 22 2025 (Today through Friday) Key Messages: - Drier and somewhat cooler conditions are expected across the area on Thursday and Friday. The axis of a mid-level longwave trough as move to the east of Georgia while the cold front that advanced through the forecast area yesterday has moved well to the south. As a result, northwesterly flow has set up at the surface and aloft, allowing a drier and somewhat cooler airmass to settle in over much of the Southeast. Dewpoints in the 50s (and even 40s in the highest elevations) and mostly clear skies will he a comfortable change from the recent humid conditions.
In general, we remain in upper troughing through Friday. After this morning the moisture if confined to the low levels which will probably bring the widespread precipitation to an end. Surface ridging will be in place much of the holiday weekend which should keep us dry.
559 AM MST Thu May 22 2025 1) Triple digit high temperatures across the lower deserts continue today and tomorrow, with today being the hottest day with highs of 102-107 degrees.
In the last hour or so, a cloudline has begun to develop just north of the Lower Keys, producing light showers currently over Stock Island. This cloudline along with the light winds and moisture down in the lower levels make for a favorable waterspout environment. No watches, warnings, or advisories are in effect for the Florida Keys, although, waterspouts are possible through this afternoon for the Lower Keys.
A building ridge of high pressure across the region will result in hot conditions across Southeast Arizona today, with afternoon high temperatures 7 to 10 degrees above climatological normal. The upper pattern this morning is defined by a broad ridge of high pressure across Northwest Mexico extending into the Desert Southwest. A dry trough of low pressure developing along the West Coast today will begin to amplify the upper pattern as it tracks east through the Great Basin into this weekend.
644 AM EDT Thu May 22 2025 (Today and tonight) A late season cold front crossed the region last night and is moving southeast down the Nature Coast now.
An upper trough is moving into the area this morning and will move east of the forecast area this afternoon. Isolated showers are expected in these areas this morning, then it will be dry in the afternoon as the upper trough moves east. Another weak upper trough will move into the area later Thursday night into Friday morning, but this isn't expected to have much, if any affect on the weather. There's good agreement with upper ridging remaining a play maker for the first half of the weekend with continued dry and warmer weather for the interior. The operational models have come into better agreement with the general consensus showing the upper ridge remaining in place into the weekend.
Highs today and Friday will be in the low to mid 90s, except for the 80s at the beaches.
637 AM EDT Thu May 22 2025 An upper level low pressure system will shift slowly east across the Great Lakes today into Friday. An upper level low will shift very slowly east across the lower Great Lakes today. Mid level energy rotating around the low will lead to an increasing chance of showers across the north later this morning, with chances for pcpn then pivoting southeast across the rest of our area through the afternoon. It will also be tough to rule out a few embedded thunderstorms this afternoon, with the best chance for this across our northeast, closer to the upper low.
According to satellite, expect counties south of Potter and Faulk and the clearing line to see the lowest temps this morning. With high pressure over the region today, skies will clear this morning and drier conditions will prevail. Generally, temperatures will warm into the low to mid 60s for highs about 10 to 15 degrees below normal for late May.
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: A stagnant upper trough and recent rains will allow for an opportunity for fog in eastern Montana tonight. A low pressure system will move through tonight to bring rain showers and isolated thunderstorms to the region.
Of more impact will be the strong onshore winds that it brings with gusts of 25-35 mph expected over the waters, along the immediate coastline, through northwest/southeast oriented valleys, and in the higher terrain.
It will not last however with a return to a hot and humid airmass as a warm front lifts north.
Expect dry conditions through Friday night With temperatures just hovering in the low 90s. The only real exciting thing will be the lower dewpoints today making the heat a little more manageable. Zonal flow aloft will gradually turn northwesterly as a ridge builds to our west.
617 AM CDT Thu May 22 2025 - Less humid with cooler nights and warm days in the short term.
1008 AM EDT Thu May 22 2025 An upper level low pressure system will shift slowly east across the Great Lakes today into Friday. Upper low will start to gradually shift to the east today.
559 AM CDT Thu May 22 2025 (Today through Friday Night) Continued hot and muggy weather is expected through Friday as a building upper-level ridge brings the increased temperatures and onshore flow brings the humidity. Temperatures this afternoon will rise into the low to mid 90s for most of the region with heat indices rising into the upper 90s to low triple digits. Overnight lows tonight will be in the low 70s north and west of the Houston Metro, and then mid to upper 70s in the Metro and along the coast. Friday will be pretty similar to today temperature-wise, but the ridge aloft will be stronger limiting the potential for any afternoon shower or thunderstorm activity.
536 AM CDT Thu May 22 2025 (Thursday through Friday) Near zonal flow aloft this morning will give way to northwest flow today as ridging begins to build from the Desert Southwest into the Rockies. /33/ (Friday Night through Thursday) Aforementioned ridging across the southwest CONUS will weaken some as it pushes eastward across central Texas as we head into the weekend.
559 AM CDT Thu May 22 2025 (Today through Friday) Drier northwesterly flow will continue through today as low level ridging remains in places across the southern MS and Southwestern AL.
439 AM MST Thu May 22 2025 1) Tripple digit high temperatures across the lower deserts continue today and tomorrow, with today being the hottest day with highs of 102-107 degrees.
Snow levels will range between 7,000 and 8,000 feet, so if you have plans to venture into the high country, take necessary precautions. Showers will also affect areas north of I-90 in western Montana but be widely scattered in nature, accompanied by cooler conditions.
(Today and tonight) A late season cold front crossed the region last night and is moving southeast down the Nature Coast now.
821 AM EDT Thu May 22 2025 An upper low pressure center will remain over the Great Lakes Region for today and tomorrow.
243 AM PDT Thu May 22 2025 High pressure aloft will weaken with a low pressure system moving inland through California on Friday night.
312 AM MST Thu May 22 2025 1) Tripple digit high temperatures across the lower deserts continue today and tomorrow, with today being the hottest day with highs of 102-107 degrees.
619 AM CDT Thu May 22 2025 Updated at 618 AM CDT Thu May 22 2025 - Cooler and less humid conditions are expected for the remainder of the work week.
522 AM EDT Thu May 22 2025 High pressure keeps the region sunny and dry today.
614 AM CDT Thu May 22 2025 (Today through Friday) An upper level ridge will build in today, keeping our rain chances low (20% or lower) today through Friday. Cloud cover will diminish through the day today which will lead to highs in the upper 80s along the coast to the low 100s across the Brush Country.
Through Friday: A sprawling and pesky cutoff upper low will continue to pinwheel across the Upper Great Lakes today (and into Friday). Later this morning and into the afternoon, notably cooler temperatures will start to filter into the region aloft, with good agreement that 850 mb temps will fall to around 0 C near the lake.
515 AM CDT Thu May 22 2025 - Slightly cooler temperatures on Thursday. Daytime Thursday, short range ensembles agree the weak ridge will slide east, reaching the High Plains by 7pm.
(Today through Friday) Key Messages: - Drier and somewhat cooler conditions are expected across the area on Thursday and Friday. The axis of a mid-level longwave trough as move to the east of Georgia while the cold front that advanced through the forecast area yesterday has moved well to the south. As a result, northwesterly flow has set up at the surface and aloft, allowing a drier and somewhat cooler airmass to settle in over much of the Southeast. Dewpoints in the 50s (and even 40s in the highest elevations) and mostly clear skies will he a comfortable change from the recent humid conditions.
(Rest of Today and Tonight) A cold front was continuing its track southward this morning through the TN Valley as temperatures at 10 AM were confined to the upper 60s north of the TN river and in the upper 70s to the south of the river.
Temperatures in Las Vegas this morning are about around 5 degrees warmer than they were at this time yesterday.
A mixture of scattered light showers, drizzle, and mist continues into the evening as stacked low pressure remains in place over southern Ontario. Some clearing skies possible late tonight mainly over the southern CWA as the main surge of drier air pushes into northern IN/OH; however with continuing cool cyclonic flow below the upper trough still in place overhead, low moisture is not expected to be fully scoured out resulting persistent cloud cover through Friday.
Otherwise, partly to mostly cloudy skies to gradually clear out overnight with temperatures cooling into the lower to mid-40s. However, continued northwest flow aloft will keep below normal temperatures around with highs in the lower to mid-60s and lows Friday night in the lower to mid-40s.
(This evening through Friday night) Troughing from the Great Lakes to Florida this afternoon with ridging over the Rockies. At the surface, the axis of high pressure extended from the Dakotas to Alabama. Temperatures in the area were in the middle and upper 80s, but dew points ranged from the middle 50s across northeastern sections of the area to the lower and middle 70s south of Lake Pontchartrain. This will bring warmer overnight lows across northern sections of the area as compared to this morning. High temperatures tomorrow are likely to be a couple degrees warmer than today. Similarly, overnight lows tomorrow night will be a couple degrees warmer than tonight in most areas.
332 PM EDT Thu May 22 2025 Upper low pressure center will remain over the Great Lakes today and tomorrow keeping precipitation chances in the forecast through the beginning of the weekend.
On Friday, an upper level trough is expected to move a shore along the W coast of the CONUS. This will spur weak upper ridging over the Srn CONUS. Despite ridging locally, another weak upper level impulse is expected to move through the flow, triggering scattered showers and thunderstorms during the late afternoon through nighttime hours.
Warm day with dry conditions expected with high pressure in control of our weather. High pressure remains in control over Arizona, keeping warm temperatures and dry conditions in store for today. Afternoon highs today will likely be the warmest so far this year, with highs in the mid 70s F to mid 80s F across the higher terrain and 90s F to near 100F across the lower elevations.
Today's trough passage across Oregon-Idaho has produced its anticipated winds across eastern CA and western NV, with gusts 30-40 mph in many locations and around 45 mph for a few wind- prone sites near US-395. Sierra crest ridge gusts peaked near 85 mph earlier today. Another weak trough passage is on tap for Friday, but it will produce less wind with gusts mainly 30 mph or less. Although this system will have limited moisture, a small area of upper level forcing and instability with this trough could produce a few showers and possibly a stray thunderstorm for areas near the OR border Friday afternoon (10-15% chance). The holiday weekend looks to be warm and dry overall, as a high pressure ridge moves across CA-NV.
(This evening through Friday) A secondary push of cooler and drier air is filtering southward across Central Alabama behind a dry surface front that is currently near the I-85 corridor. Temperatures overnight will range from the mid to upper 50s north to the lower 60s south. Temperatures will remain a bit cooler to the north in the upper 70s, while south of the front will be warmer near 90 degrees.
Development will transition eastward through the day inline with the advancing trough.
1154 AM CDT Thu May 22 2025 - Less humid with cooler nights and warm days in the short term.
(Tonight through Friday night) Ridging aloft will continue to maintain dry conditions throughout the short term (through Friday night). During the day Friday, am expecting mostly clear skies with temperatures inland reaching the low to mid 90s east of I-69 E and mid to upper 90s to the west, which is slightly above average for this time of year.
117 PM EDT Thu May 22 2025 Breezy conditions today ahead of the next dry cold frontal passage tonight. Cooler and drier air will build into the area Fri into Sat.
so am expecting partial cloud cover to linger until late evening, followed by clear skies and chilly conditions overnight with lows dipping into the lower to middle 40s. The trough axis will drop south of the Ohio River on Friday as high pressure builds in from the northwest. Barnes Thanks to an upper-level blocking pattern across eastern Canada, a prominent trough will remain anchored over the Great Lakes this weekend.
An upper low/trough extending westward from New England and the Great Lakes to the northwest into Ontario will gradually drift south into parts of the Upper Midwest/Northern Plains this weekend.
(Tonight through Friday night) Key Messages: - Moderate to Major Risk of Heat-Related Impacts - Low chance for showers and thunderstorms tonight across the Brush Country, Rio Grande Plains and Victoria Crossroads A mid to upper level ridge will begin to move into the region tonight and gradually begin to gradually build tomorrow. Daytime highs tomorrow will climb into the low to mid 90s across the Coastal Bend and Victoria Crossroads and upper 90s to near 102 degrees across the Brush Country. Tomorrow's heat index will peak from 100-111 degrees across South Texas as the warm temperatures interact with the high dewpoints, therefore, there will be a moderate to major risk for heat-related impacts.
1134 AM CDT Thu May 22 2025 (Today through Friday Night) Continued hot and muggy weather is expected through Friday as a building upper-level ridge brings the increased temperatures and onshore flow brings the humidity. Temperatures this afternoon will rise into the low to mid 90s for most of the region with heat indices rising into the upper 90s to low triple digits. Overnight lows tonight will be in the low 70s north and west of the Houston Metro, and then mid to upper 70s in the Metro and along the coast. Friday will be pretty similar to today temperature-wise, but the ridge aloft will be stronger limiting the potential for any afternoon shower or thunderstorm activity.
On Friday, we will keep the forecast dry as mid and upper level ridging begins to build in from the south. Temperatures on Friday will be above normal, with highs in the lower 90s to lower 100s and overnight lows mainly in the 70s.
1228 PM CDT Thu May 22 2025 (Today through Friday) An upper level ridge will build in today, keeping our rain chances low (20% or lower) today through Friday. Cloud cover will diminish through the day today which will lead to highs in the upper 80s along the coast to the low 100s across the Brush Country.
This moisture plume actually extends into the Great Lakes region wrapping around the upper low that brought wetting to the state this last week. The upper level pattern remains fairly weak as the main jet stream remains over the Central Plains this weekend with an upper low traversing the top of the mainstream.
210 PM EDT Thu May 22 2025 An upper low pressure center will remain over the Great Lakes Region today and tomorrow keeping precipitation chances in the forecast through the beginning of the weekend.
Latest visible loop shows an expansive cloud shield surrounding the upper low and we're likely to see a good deal of cloud over the eastern cwa tonight. We expect more clearing Friday and Friday night which, under high pressure, will help temperatures fall into the mid 30s across the northeast cwa.
Modest low-level WAA overtop the warm front has allowed for the development of showers and storms across far south-central KS. Rain and thunderstorm chances will quickly return by Friday morning as the low-level WAA pattern returns the forecast area.
1) Triple digit high temperatures across the lower deserts continue today and tomorrow, with today being the hottest day with highs of 102-107 degrees.
Meanwhile, further to the south in the Texas South Plains, convergence along the cold front located near Plainview, TX is also generating some cumulus clouds. Abundant H850-700 theta-e will advect under a low amplitude ridge building across the southern high Plains by tomorrow morning. Although quite the contrast between hi-res model for the output of instability ranging overall from 400 J/kg to 4000 J/kg, a perturbation under the ridge will help to break the cap, if aligned with help from a pseudo-dryline setting up. Main storm mode should support supercells, IF we can get substantial lift along or ahead of dryline a with help from mid level perturbation under the low amplitude mid level ridge.
1211 PM CDT Thu May 22 2025 Updated at 1207 PM CDT Thu May 22 2025 - Cooler and less humid conditions are expected for the remainder of the work week.
134 PM EDT Thu May 22 2025 An upper level low pressure system will shift slowly east across the Great Lakes today into Friday. Upper low will start to gradually shift to the east today.
The drier airmass and clearing skies will support low temps in the lower 60s inland areas, with upper 60s/near 70F along the Atlantic Coast. Drier airmass will support mostly sunny skies on Friday with the westerly steering flow bringing a return to above normal temps with highs in the lower to middle 90s inland, while an East Coast sea breeze will press inland to the I-95/US-17 corridors with highs in the upper 80s/near 90F along the Atlantic Coast.