Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
(Now through Monday) An upper level ridge of high pressure will continue to build eastward across the north central Gulf Coast region and the southeastern U. Increased subsidence underneath the building ridge and relatively low afternoon precipitable water values between 1.
In the upper levels, a low pressure center sat over the northern Baja peninsula early this morning.
653 AM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024 (Sunday through Monday) Upper-air analysis is showing high pressure over the southwest CONUS, extending eastward into Texas.
635 AM EDT Sun Aug 11 2024 High pressure dominates at the surface this week while several upper troughs pass through the region from time to time. In the mid and upper levels, a trough will cross north of our region. Thanks to the dry air advection and clearing skies, temperatures overnight will be considerably cooler than what we've seen for a long time. In fact the current forecast low at Philadelphia, 64 F, would be the lowest temperature since July 1.
A broad upper level ridge across the southern US and SW Atlc will remain in place with a small weakness in the ridge over FL. In the low levels, the ridge axis remains across south FL and will produce a light SW flow turning SE behind the sea breeze along the coast. The low level ridge axis lifts slightly northward into our southern sections. Max temps in the mid 90s continue inland while the sea breeze keeps coastal temperatures in the low 90s with heat indices 104-107. The Atlantic high pressure ridge axis will remain across south FL today then lift northward across central FL early this week before settling back across south FL mid week.
1032 AM EDT Sun Aug 11 2024 An upper level trough will bring cool but unsettled weather through Monday with lake effect rain showers downwind of the lakes, and general showers and a few thunderstorms today.
637 AM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024 (Today through Monday) High pressure continues to dominate the southern tier of the US down into the Gulf and over the northern tier a weak trough over the upper midwest to the east coast and a weak ridge over the west and plains. The ridge will maintain drier air with PWs in the 1. However, the subsidence under the high pressure will suppress most chances for rain, with the exception being sea breeze generated lift driving some low convection.
Warm and muggy once again today, with afternoon high temps in the low to mid 90s and peak heat indices ranging between 104-107 degrees. The Atlantic high pressure ridge axis will remain across south FL today then lift northward across central FL early this week before settling back across south FL mid week.
A large dome of high pressure out of the Plains states also continues to build SE into parts of the Midwest/TN Valley areas.
639 AM EDT Sun Aug 11 2024 High pressure will persist across the region into the middle of the week offering dry conditions. Mid level trof to pivot from the Great Lakes into southeast Canada today. Cool overnight lows to bottom out in the lower and middle 50s. High temperatures to range from the upper 70s to the lower 80s.
959 AM EDT Sun Aug 11 2024 High pressure dominates at the surface this week while several upper troughs pass through the region from time to time. Think we should see a mostly sunny end of the day regardless, but definitely a cloudier day than anticipated thanks to passing trough/jet streak. In the mid and upper levels, a trough will cross north of our region. Thanks to the dry air advection and clearing skies, temperatures overnight will be considerably cooler than what we've seen for a long time. In fact the current forecast low at Philadelphia, 64 F, would be the lowest temperature since July 1.
1007 AM EDT Sun Aug 11 2024 High pressure will persist across the region into the middle of the week offering dry conditions. Cool overnight lows to bottom out in the lower and middle 50s. High temperatures to range from the upper 70s to the lower 80s.
733 AM EDT Sun Aug 11 2024 - Fair weather today through Monday - Dry through midweek; better support for late-week rain - Fair weather today through Monday Any isolated early morning light rain showers and sprinkles will end by mid morning as the upper level trough/vort max departs. It will be partly sunny today with pleasant high temps reaching the low to mid 70s as per latest ensemble guidance numbers. A digging upper trough approaching from the nrn Plains helps to draw up Gulf moisture (PWATs >1.
648 AM EDT Sun Aug 11 2024 High pressure will cover the Tennessee Valley and much of the Mid Atlantic tonight through Monday morning as a cold front drifts from eastern Virginia to the Carolina coast. High pressure continues to be the dominant player locally, keeping dew points lower and temperatures slightly below normal.
230 AM PDT Sun Aug 11 2024 Cooler temperatures and locally breezy at times this week. Overall little change as high pressure maintains its grip.
Cooler air aloft at the southern edge of an upper trough will bring some clouds and the chance for a few showers and isolated showers across the Northwest Mountains today through Monday. The next chance for more widespread showers and thunderstorms returns toward the end of the week as a warm front lifts northeast from the Ohio Valley. Some showers and isolated storms across the far north into this evening, as an upper level trough swings across the area, and Lake Erie adds some moisture. Some wind and clouds will taper the lows tonight. Temperatures will be similar today, averaging a few degrees cooler than normal.
Monday looks only slightly warmer than today with highs in the 80s, but considerable cloud cover will make it feel not quite as warm. (Monday Night through next Sunday) Unfortunately all good things much come to an end, and warmer and more humid conditions will return for the rest of the week as an upper level ridge builds across the southern Plains and Gulf Coast.
- A few degrees cooler tomorrow but thunderstorms will once again redevelop over the region, with some strong storms over the plains. Just east of the KS/CO border it was noticeably cooler with current temps in W KS in the M60s. Max temps will be a bit cooler than today. \/Hodanish There is GFS/ECMWF/Canadian model agreement that a broad mid-level high will be centered across Texas as a trough pushes into northern California and the Pacific NW.
(This afternoon through Monday) A sunny sky, warm temperatures, and lower humidity values will be the theme through the short term period as high pressure maintains its grasp across the region with zonal flow aloft, and north to northwesterly flow in the low-levels. Conditions will be similar to yesterday except everyone gets to enjoy dewpoints in the lower to mid 60s due to the dry air over the state.
(Tonight through Monday night) High pressure in the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere remains the dominant weather feature across south central Texas through the next couple of days.
An upper level low over southern Quebec will weaken and lift out to the northeast during the short term period. However, general, broad troughing will linger over much of the eastern CONUS, with west northwest flow aloft over our area. At the surface, a persistent high and/or ridging will be just to our north and northwest.
------------------------------------------------------------------- Most of the area will continue to see dry weather tonight with a ridge of high pressure at the surface, building under a broad upper trough.
(This evening through Monday) Upper-level ridging will continue to build across West Central Texas into Monday, with hot and dry conditions returning to the area. An upper level ridge will continue to dominate the weather across West Central Texas.
- Mostly dry mid-week with daytime high temperatures in the low 80s. Cool thermal trough remains over the region with the center of the mid/upper level closed low moves eastward just north of Lake Ontario. As this low moves further out of the central Great Lakes, the weakly forced cyclonic flow containing widely scattered light showers will target mainly the Thumb region this evening. Lows by early tomorrow morning fall into the low to mid 50s for most locations.
406 PM EDT Sun Aug 11 2024 An upper low will keep scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms in the forecast through Monday with temperatures running a below seasonal averages.
340 PM EDT Sun Aug 11 2024 High pressure will remain across the region through the middle of the week. A number of the high resolution runs suggest that there will be echoes with some relatively stronger elements within that. With the clouds lingering into Monday night, lows will be warmer as well with readings in the upper 50s and lower 60s.
(This evening through Monday night) High pressure will continue to dominate the weather pattern for the next couple of days.
The mid level ridge will expand a bit through the day and should keep precipitation chances near zero. Otherwise, the summer heat will be in full swing as the center of an upper ridge moves back over the region.
221 PM MDT Sun Aug 11 2024 Satellite imagery shows trof axis moving thru eastern MT into the Dakotas with a significant precipitation area along the MT/Dakota border that is associated with strong q-vector forcing. Ridging slowly builds over the area through Monday with notably warmer highs expected in the mid 80s to near 90 degrees for most locations.
The upper high remains centered over the Southern Great Plains, with moist south to southeasterly flow over Arizona.
139 PM EDT Sun Aug 11 2024 High pressure will persist across the region into the middle of the week offering dry conditions. Cool overnight lows to bottom out in the lower and middle 50s. High temperatures to range from the upper 70s to the lower 80s.
On the large scale, upper level low pressure over the Hudson Bay continues to weaken and push east with relatively fast mid-upper level flow across the northern US. Broad warm air advection on the east side of the upper level ridge across the western US has lead to temperatures warming into the upper 70s to lower 80s across the region. On Monday, precipitation is expected to shift east, but can't entirely rule out some redevelopment tomorrow afternoon across central-eastern Missouri mainly along and east of the highway 63 corridor. In areas where clouds are able to at least partially clear, should see warmer muggier conditions develop with high temperatures warming into the 80s.
Otherwise, high pressure settling into the Midwest/TN Valley areas out of the NW will translate into another quiet/seasonably cool night. With dew pts in the mid/upper 50s filtering into the area out of the north, lows into early Mon look to fall mainly into the lower/mid 60s for most spots, which is around 5-10F below normal for this time of the yr.
- Fair weather today through Monday Any isolated early morning light rain showers and sprinkles will end by mid morning as the upper level trough/vort max departs. It will be partly sunny today with pleasant high temps reaching the low to mid 70s as per latest ensemble guidance numbers. A digging upper trough approaching from the nrn Plains helps to draw up Gulf moisture (PWATs >1.
Temperatures will trend cooler today and lower to near normal by Monday. Based on the incoming trough, confidence is growing for a stretch of near-normal temperatures for much of this week. An upper ridge over the southwest will provide one more day of widespread triple digit heat and a moderate HeatRisk across the San Joaquin Valley. This trough will move inland on Monday and lower temperatures to right around average.
1235 PM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024 - Warmer weather is expected today, especially across far southwest Kansas where highs could reach the 80s to lower 90s. Cooler 70s and 80s are forecast from Dodge City north and east.
(This evening through Monday) The upper high that has been overhead for the past several days will continue to dominate the region tonight and tomorrow. Convection will be possible once again across the Texas Panhandle during the late evening and overnight hours from another weak disturbance moving across the northern edge of the upper high. The upper high is progged to shift slightly eastward tomorrow. While conditions will remain hot and dry due to the upper high, the shift may be enough to prevent Heat Advisory level temps across our eastern zones tomorrow afternoon.
1253 PM EDT Sun Aug 11 2024 Upper level low pressure will lead to rain showers and isolated thunderstorms, mainly over central NY, today and Monday, especially during the afternoon hours.
The western edge of the Atlantic ridge axis continues to linger over central Florida and limit the amount of thunderstorms over the Florida Keys. Synoptic-scale features that could disrupt the high pressure over the southeastern United States are not present at the start of the week, and the next two days will be dominated by weak undulations in the easterlies.
1158 AM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024 (Today through Monday afternoon) The short term forecast remains quite jejune, as the upper ridge persists. WV imagery this morning shows the upper ridge still covering the southwest and central CONUS, extending from the eastern Pacific to the ArklaTex and into the Gulf of Mexico. The old inverted trough remains over Baja, bifurcating the ridge, but this will continue to have negligible effect on weather here. The ridge will remain in place today, w/models increasing thicknesses slightly and increasing highs on average 2-3 degrees over yesterday's. Monday, the ridge is forecast to shift east to near the ArklaTex.
Looking west on satellite imagery, a new trough is entering the Pacific Northwest. This trough is expected to shift the flow to southwesterly across the Northern Rockies, bringing above-average atmospheric moisture into north-central Idaho and western Montana. Thunderstorm development is anticipated each day, with afternoons and evenings holding the highest chances.
Moisture will have a hard time increasing significantly until the high is pushed east of the region.
1242 PM EDT Sun Aug 11 2024 High pressure provides dry, cooler weather through early portion of the week.
This evening, high pressure will be overhead, allowing calm to light winds, and mostly clear skies. Broad ridging centered over the southern CONUS will continue to amplify, placing the Ohio Valley on the periphery of the ridging. Otherwise, temperatures will be about 1-2 degrees warmer than Sunday, in the low 80s.
Current readings are in the low to mid 90s with light and variable winds south of I-20, but still 5 to 10 mph from the NE along and east of I-49. Overnight tomorrow will be slightly warmer with some upper 70s cropping up.
Model guidance suggests that a northward- advancing weak warm front (currently near the Red River), in addition to residual surface moisture and 850 mb warm air advection, could foster a few additional storms later this evening and into the overnight hours. The best chance for thunderstorm development will be across northern Oklahoma (along the advancing warm front). Areas north of I-40 will see a weak cold front that will help keep heat indices below heat advisory criteria.
935 AM PDT Sun Aug 11 2024 Slightly cooler today with continued chances of thunderstorms over the mountains and deserts.
- Mostly dry through midweek, the rain chances increase The first part to the middle of the week looks pretty typical of August: partly cloudy, somewhat humid, and highs in the lower 80s. As the upper trough begins to slide east, the cooler temperatures will go with it and be replaced by ridging nosing into the Great Lakes. As we progress toward the end of the week, confidence is increasing that we'll see some troughing develop over the Great Lakes.
Mid level ridging remains in full control Monday and we see very little change in store.
The main story this afternoon will be the warm temperatures, with highs in the low to mid 90s and heat indices of 105-110. The setup remains pretty similar on Monday as the high continues to expand over the region.
The mid level ridge will expand a bit through the day and should keep precipitation chances near zero.
1259 PM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024 (Today through Monday) The subtropical ridge remains nearly overhead in the short term. These moisture levels combined with subsidence underneath the ridge lead to a return of a rain free forecast. However, with the approach of an inverted trough, some CAMs indicate a few showers near the Coastal Plains on Monday.
At the upper-levels, a 595dam ridge is building in across western and central Texas and this feature is expected to remain in place through at least tonight. Surface flow should also increase above 10 MPH by this afternoon due to weak troughing that will develop over the Panhandle this morning. An upper level ridge will continue to dominate the weather across West Central Texas.
348 PM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024 - Scattered showers and thunderstorms expected tonight, with a small chance for a strong to marginally severe storm west of a line extending from Cambridge to Ord.
355 PM EDT Sun Aug 11 2024 Weak high pressure will build east tonight. A series of trofs will then move across the region through the week. Weak high pressure is still in control of the area weather this afternoon but will likely lose it/s grip tonight as next upr low advances twd the area. An upper level trof exits across the Maritimes Monday night, with a surface trof also exiting.
High pressure centered over the mid Mississippi Valley remains the primary feature for the region, ensuring another day with partly to mostly clear skies and cool conditions. With the high pressure moving off to the east, winds will start to veer towards southerly. Due to the preceding dry air mass and weak flow near the high pressure system, the remnant shouldn't be anything more that left over upper level cloud cover by the time it reaches central Indiana.
117 PM EDT Sun Aug 11 2024 High pressure provides dry, cooler weather through early portion of the week.
- Temperatures trending near normal by midweek, with most in the low-mid 80s. High pressure remains planted over the region through today, where it will slowly start to slide east this evening and through tonight, as a new wave emerges over the region. A brief period of high pressure fills in behind the low, bringing a break in precipitation before the next wave approaches the area. Much of the area should remain in the low-mid 70.
(Tonight through Monday night) Key Message: - Moderate to major heat risk continues today and tomorrow South Texas over the short term will be characterized by warm temperatures and partly cloudy conditions as we continue to be under the influence of high pressure aloft. Chances for showers/thunderstorms northeast increase to around 15-20% as an approaching weak inverted trough combines with moisture (PWAT's 1. Afternoon temperatures today and tomorrow will rise to the mid to upper 90s across much of the region with slightly cooler conditions along the coast due to onshore winds. Heat Advisory conditions are not expected to be met as the higher heat index values are not expected to persist long enough but will continue to monitor conditions.
Pattern Synopsis / Forecast: Anomalously deep troughing / closed low over Georgian Bay will slowly be forced eastward by an intruding ridge, with surface reflection of oblong area of high pressure currently stretching from Manitoba to the Ohio Valley quick on the closed low's heels. Despite high pressure intruding, still looks like some weak diurnal instability may try to materialize tomorrow, perhaps bringing a returning isolated shower risk across northeast lower Michigan. Still expecting lows in the 40s across portions of the interior, with most other spots holding anywhere from the low-to- mid 50s. Much warmer tomorrow, and noticeably more sunny. Pattern Forecast: By Monday evening, northern Michigan is expected to be sandwiched between longwave troughing anchored over the eastern seaboard and ridging building upstream across the Intermountain West and central Plains.
A gradual transition to a warmer and more unsettled weather pattern as we move through the upcoming week.
Temps this afternoon have ranged from the mid to upper 60s over east half portions under more persistent clouds to the lower to mid 70s elsewhere. A few upper 40s could be possible over the eastern interior where max temps have been a bit cooler.
(This evening through Monday) A developing trough over open water to our west will continue to deepen and approach the California central coast tonight and tomorrow. Temperatures inland today are running approximately five degrees cooler than yesterday, and will be about another five degrees cooler tomorrow as H50 height falls and decreasing thickness values coincide with the deepening trough overhead by tomorrow evening.
This should keep overnight temperatures warmer, with lows in the upper 60s and low 70s. Temperatures will trend warmer beginning tomorrow as a midlevel high builds eastward.
244 PM EDT Sun Aug 11 2024 Upper level low pressure will lead to rain showers and isolated thunderstorms over central New York this afternoon and tomorrow afternoon.
248 PM EDT Sun Aug 11 2024 Upper level low pressure will lead to rain showers and isolated thunderstorms over central New York this afternoon and tomorrow afternoon.
257 PM EDT Sun Aug 11 2024 An upper low will keep scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms in the forecast through Monday with temperatures running a below seasonal averages.
139 PM EDT Sun Aug 11 2024 Upper level low pressure will lead to rain showers and isolated thunderstorms, mainly over central NY, today and Monday, especially during the afternoon hours.
Water vapor imagery indicates a strong upper-level trough churning over the eastern Great Lakes, while upper ridging continues over the Southern Great Plains.
More moisture moves over the forecast area from the west tonight through Monday as onshore flow over the Tx/La coast moves moisture inland, which then moves east over the Lower Mississippi River Valley to the Southeast (and the forecast area). An upper ridge builds east over the Southeast, helping to limit any chance of rain over most of the forecast area, though. The upper ridge will help keep daytime temperatures at or above seasonal norms for today and Monday. Temperatures topping out in the low 90s north of Highway 84 and along the coast mid to upper 90s are expected this afternoon, with an uptick to general mid to upper 90s for Monday.
These storms will have the lift from a short wave trough moving through the northern and central plains. Also, a cold front will be moving southward across the Oklahoma Panhandle and the northern Texas Panhandle late tonight which could also provide another source of lift. The cold front should move to somewhere in the southern Texas Panhandle and pull up stationary by mid morning on Monday. More thunderstorms are expected to move this way from the mountains in the afternoon with help form an upper level short wave trough. High temperatures tomorrow will be tricky depending on where the front ends up and if the low clouds stick around or not.
Although southwesterly winds may temporarily clear some of the low-level smoke this afternoon, it's likely to become trapped again in the mountain valleys overnight, leading to more smoke settling into the lower valleys by Monday morning. A deepening upper-level trough along the Pacific Northwest coast will enhance southwesterly flow across Southeast Oregon this afternoon, increasing surface CAPE and shear.
Storms will continue to push into western and central SD through this afternoon as the low tracks to the southeast. Ridge begins building into the area Monday with warming temperatures through the mid week.
215 PM EDT Sun Aug 11 2024 High pressure dominates at the surface this week while several upper troughs pass through the region from time to time. This should allow temps to rise a few more degrees for the rest of the day, ending up close to previously forecast highs in the low-mid 80s for most, 70s cooler spots. High pressure prevails tonight, with clear to partly cloudy skies and with lower dew points and lighter winds, some radiational cooling is expected in the more rural locations away from the waters.