Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
351 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025 * Cooler conditions expected today with light rain expanding from the south this afternoon into tonight. * Area of low pressure will move through the central US on Sunday bringing heavy rain and the potential for severe weather.
The early cloud cover could keep highs a tad cooler. Regardless, it will be another warm day with highs climb back into the lower to mid 80s.
Dry and warm weather continues this weekend as upper ridging remains in place over the region. Overnight lows fall into the lower to middle 60's for most spots tonight and Sunday night.
(Today through Sunday) Upper-level ridging will continue to dominate the short-term, with the apex of the ridge shifting further east by today. Otherwise, look for overnight lows to range in the low to mid-60s.
Increased cloud cover will keep temperatures slightly cooler than yesterday, but still expecting highs in the mid to upper 80s for most inland areas (and low 80s along the coast). Another unseasonably warm night is expected tonight due to the southerly flow and mostly cloudy skies with lows in the low to mid 70s. That upper-level disturbance to the west will exit into the Southern Plains on Sunday with the associated cold front expected to move into SE Texas Sunday afternoon into Sunday night.
(Today through Sunday) An upper-level trough over the Rockies will move into the Central Plains by Sunday, helping to push a cold front southeast through Texas. This cold front looks to reach the northwestern portions of the CWA Sunday morning, before stalling as it traverses the CWA Sunday. With the trough shifting further east, the LLJ that has been sitting along the coast for the past several days will likely weaken and shift further east around sunrise this morning. Given the low confidence in reaching Wind Advisory criteria, will hold off on issuing an advisory for now, and reassess after the 12z sounding.
The cold front is just now clearing Chicagoland, approaching northwest Indiana. Low pressure lifts north through the Plains Sunday and local POPs were cut heavily. High pressure lingers over Michigan resulting in continued subsidence and dry air. With the low far enough west, moisture transport locally will be lack luster. Overcoming the lingering high pressure will be key.
214 AM EDT Sat Apr 19 2025 Warm temperatures are expected today along with scattered showers and possibly a few thunderstorms ahead of an approaching cold front. The remnants of an MCS that was near Milwaukee early this evening is riding over the top of the mid level ridge into southern Ontario at this time. A weak pseudo warm front will form along and just north of the Thruway corridor tonight. but have included mention of sprinkles before the better chances kick in later ahead of a cold front. A cold front will move through during the afternoon hours with showers and scattered thunderstorms. High pressure and ridging will continue to build over the region Sunday night.
328 AM EDT Sat Apr 19 2025 - Fair and cooler then rain returns Sunday Amplified longwave pattern across the CONUS continues over the weekend. The longwave trough that brought the recent bout of storms is not finished, as the southern end has cut off and makes a run at Lower Michigan later this weekend. Showers move southeast this morning then fair and cooler behind the cold front with temperatures steady or falling today. These are all ahead of the cold front dropping through the area.
The highest probability will be in the Red River Valley and portions of northwest Minnesota. This will traverse the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest this weekend, bringing warmer temperatures in the 60s by Sunday afternoon.
The region is stuck between a broad trough axis over the intermountain west and ridging over the northeastern Gulf this morning. Quite a bit of heat and moisture have moved in on the southerly winds ahead of the trough and temperatures are in the 70s tonight with dewpoints in the lower 60s. Most available guidance mixes out our dewpoints into the low 60s during the day Sunday and we don't recover through strong advection until surface winds shift to the southwest.
- Some training thunderstorms this morning into the afternoon may result in localized flooding, with the highest risk near and south of roughly I-70. The passing cold front will stall out over central IL today. Then as the boundary lifts back north as a warm front, more rain and thunderstorms enter the forecast area. The warm front is connected to a secondary low pressure system that will lift northeastward Sunday. There looks to be a morning round associated with the warm front, and then an evening round with the cold front passage.
Same forecast, different day as high pressure aloft and at the surface remains in control. Though it won't feel exactly like summer time just yet as dew points will still be on the low side keeping humidity down. The lower dew points coupled with the breezy easterly winds will keep fire dangers elevated for the next few days.
Strong ridging aloft and high pressure at the surface will remain in control of the weather across the region today.
752 AM EDT Sat Apr 19 2025 * Breezy and very mild conditions early today * A cold front will push southeast across the region today, accompanied by showers and scattered thunderstorms, with a few containing strong westerly wind gusts over 60 mph.
The lower conditions along the coast will improve to VFR this afternoon, but expect the return of these lower conditions early this evening.
502 AM EDT Sat Apr 19 2025 * Breezy and very mild conditions early today * A cold front will push southeast across the region today, accompanied by showers and scattered thunderstorms, with a few containing strong westerly wind gusts over 60 mph.
Winds will be in the 10-15mph range so this will help ventilate the low levels to keep heating to a lower degree than if the winds were not there.
621 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025 * Cooler conditions expected today with light rain expanding from the south this afternoon into tonight. * Area of low pressure will move through the central US on Sunday bringing heavy rain and the potential for severe weather.
708 AM EDT Sat Apr 19 2025 Showers and thunderstorms can be expected at times today as a cold front moves into the Ohio Valley.
Weak high pressure and drier conditions will build back into the region this weekend with below normal temperatures today warming into the normal range on Sunday. A rather robust and compact upper level low is currently tracking through the area with the low center near Flagstaff and a cold front now pushing through southeast Arizona. 5" to portions of the higher terrain north and northeast of Phoenix. As the low center tracks into western New Mexico later this morning, the drier air will completely fill in across southeast California and southwest Arizona before doing so across the rest of Arizona by this evening. The Desert Southwest will stay in between the two jet branches with broad troughing to quasi-zonal flow persisting through at least mid week.
938 AM EDT Sat Apr 19 2025 Showers and thunderstorms can be expected at times today as a cold front moves into the Ohio Valley.
554 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025 (Today through Sunday) Upper-level ridging will continue to dominate the short-term, with the apex of the ridge shifting further east by today. Otherwise, look for overnight lows to range in the low to mid-60s.
618 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025 (Today through Sunday) An upper-level trough over the Rockies will move into the Central Plains by Sunday, helping to push a cold front southeast through Texas. This cold front looks to reach the northwestern portions of the CWA Sunday morning, before stalling as it traverses the CWA Sunday. With the trough shifting further east, the LLJ that has been sitting along the coast for the past several days will likely weaken and shift further east around sunrise this morning. Given the low confidence in reaching Wind Advisory criteria, will hold off on issuing an advisory for now, and reassess after the 12z sounding.
737 AM EDT Sat Apr 19 2025 - Fair and cooler then rain returns Sunday Amplified longwave pattern across the CONUS continues over the weekend. The longwave trough that brought the recent bout of storms is not finished, as the southern end has cut off and makes a run at Lower Michigan later this weekend. Showers move southeast this morning then fair and cooler behind the cold front with temperatures steady or falling today. This low cloud cover has yet to make it to KJXN, but will likely do so quickly this morning. We are already starting to see the low cloud cover lift toward KMKG from IFR to low end MVFR. We will then see the low clouds totally clear out this evening, leaving only high clouds overnight.
248 AM MST Sat Apr 19 2025 Weak high pressure and drier conditions will build back into the region this weekend with below normal temperatures today warming into the normal range on Sunday. A rather robust and compact upper level low is currently tracking through the area with the low center near Flagstaff and a cold front now pushing through southeast Arizona. 5" to portions of the higher terrain north and northeast of Phoenix. As the low center tracks into western New Mexico later this morning, the drier air will completely fill in across southeast California and southwest Arizona before doing so across the rest of Arizona by this evening. The Desert Southwest will stay in between the two jet branches with broad troughing to quasi-zonal flow persisting through at least mid week.
1222 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025 (Rest of Today and Tonight) A warm and humid day is underway as southerly flow persists as high pressure sits off the East Coast. Another mild night is ahead as well with lows in the lower to middle 60s for most areas expect a few upper 50s in parts of DeKalb County.
155 PM EDT Sat Apr 19 2025 - Fair and cooler then rain returns Sunday Amplified longwave pattern across the CONUS continues over the weekend. The longwave trough that brought the recent bout of storms is not finished, as the southern end has cut off and makes a run at Lower Michigan later this weekend. Showers move southeast this morning then fair and cooler behind the cold front with temperatures steady or falling today.
Strong to severe thunderstorms expected this afternoon into Early this afternoon, a surface cold front remains nearly stationary and extends from near Midland, northeast to just south of Abilene and then into north central Texas. Highs will range from the lower 70s across the Big Country, to the upper 70s along the I-10 corridor.
257 PM EDT Sat Apr 19 2025 High pressure will dominate the weather pattern for the Mid- Atlantic through the weekend, with a warm southwesterly wind bringing well above average temperatures through Sunday.
In addition, as the low level jet develops a strongly veering low level wind field will be present. Then, as the low level jet develops overnight, all hazards may occur, though wind and hail will dominate as storms quickly form and merge together.
A strong area of Low pressure will continue to bring areas of rain and snow to the eastern half of Arizona through this evening. After the low pressure system moves east tonight, expect a dry week with temperatures recovering up to seasonal averages. The center of our most recent low pressure system was located over west-central New Mexico at mid afternoon, rapidly heading eastward. Moisture wrapping around the low was continuing to produce a few snow showers over far eastern Arizona along the New Mexico border. Clear skies along with light and variable winds are in store as the low exits the state.
Given the strong shear though, and the advancing cold front into the warm sector, there should be a line of storms develop, within that area denoted above, with potential for discrete or semi-discrete rotating storms.
From synopsis, a robust Atlantic high pressure system will sustain strong easterly breezes today and tonight. Breezes will slacken slightly at the start of the week after the high weakens, but the strength will oscillate between moderate and fresh.
(Rest of today through Sunday) This weekend will be characterized by strong high pressure over the western Atlantic and upper level ridging across the region. Afternoon high temps today will range from the lower 80s across the east coast metro to upper 80s over SW FL. Low temps tonight will range from the lower 60s over inland SW FL, to lower 70s across the east coast metro. High temps on Sunday will be a couple degrees warmer, generally ranging from the low to mid 80s across the metro to around 90 over SW FL.
337 PM EDT Sat Apr 19 2025 - Cooler and drier through the weekend.
The positively tilted trough from Ontario to the Four Corners will become more split today as the northern branch portion moves off to the east. The southern branch upper low, will move from the Central Plains into the upper midwest, with most precipitation and winds from that system staying to our south and east.
- Freezing temperatures will impact susceptible vegetation in the low elevation valleys tomorrow morning and a few places tomorrow night. The low pressure responsible for the active weather is currently moving eastward over New Mexico. The high sun angle has warmed some places above freezing and road conditions have improved even at pass level. The flow shifts to the north this evening as the low progresses eastward and therefore we will see a downtick in showers and the end of accumulating snowfall. This low has brought a seasonably cold airmass to the region so many locations drop below freezing tonight. Lows tonight are expected to be in the teens and single digits with 20s and 30s in the lower valleys with help from clear skies.
Partly cloudy skies this morning will become mostly cloudy this afternoon as a weak cold front approaches and then moves through this afternoon into the early evening hours. Light showers are forecast for the higher terrain in the northern part of the CWA (generally from Baker County east into the West Central and Boise Mountain zones). A cold front will swing through the region near 19Z in Oregon and 23Z for central Idaho.
For the remainder of the weekend, an amplified pattern in the height field at high levels persists with a ridge axis aligned from the Gulf, northeast to off the Mid-Atlantic coast and a trough ejecting northeast across the southern/central Plains. The zone of active weather extends from TX, northeast to across the Mid MS River Valley in close proximity and east of a slow eastward advancing cold front. The ridge aloft appears strong enough to keep the area rain-free through Sunday evening.
Model soundings show a healthy capping inversion that will make it difficult to realize any surface-based convection until the cold front arrives Sunday evening. The cap will be in place and there is little sign of any warm-sector convection developing ahead of the main line near the cold front Sunday evening. This will likely lead to dewpoints mixing down into the upper 50s over much of the Quad State in the afternoon, which will help limit instability ahead of the cold front, especially east of the Mississippi.
A sprauling trough across the western US becomes cutoff across the southwestern US as the northern stream continues eastward. This allows a baroclinic zone to set up from TX to arcing towards the Lower Great Lakes region. What's left of that energy in the southwestern US moves up towards the Lower Great Lakes Sunday evening. So, as the cold front that caused this morning showers and storms slowly shifts southeastward, rain shuts off for all areas by after midnight tonight. A warm front attempts to lift northward Sunday evening and may provide a time period with some thunderstorms as the NAM indicates some variation of 250 to 1250 J/kg of CAPE coupled with 30 to 40 kts of effective shear may be around.
High pressure has set up across the Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes, north of a nearly stationary front draped from the Southern Plains into the Ohio Valley. An area of low pressure organizing across north Texas into Oklahoma will quickly pull to the north late tonight into Sunday morning. Sunday and Sunday night: A longwave upper-level trough is expected to move out of the Rockies and approach our region for Easter Sunday, becoming more negatively-tilted with time.
249 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025 Tonight through Sunday Night: The region will remain on the western periphery of a ridge aloft centered just off the Florida/Georgia coastline. This, as high pressure at the surface likewise remains wedged into the forecast area from the west. A low pressure system will lift north northeast from the southern plains into the Upper Mississippi River Valley and Great Lakes Region Sunday afternoon into late Sunday night.
A ridge is building in the eastern Pacific Ocean and 500 mb heights will gradually rise over the western United States.
At the sfc, a cold front remains nearly stationary across south central OK, extending NE from there toward the Ozarks. As we move into the day on Sunday, the upper-level trough, which has been painstakingly slow to eject from the Four Corners region, will finally eastward out of the Rockies into the Central and Southern Plains.
(Tonight and Sunday) Warm front currently stalled across the Red River corridor through far SE OK with expansive light showers continuing to stream northward across the region. The warm front will attempt to lift northward as low level winds strengthen especially late evening into the overnight hours. The zone along and south of the warm front will mark the highest severe weather potential and various short term guidance members a few robust severe storms within this corridor with damaging winds and/or tornadic potential. However, the compact intense portion of the primary trough axis will expand and intensify the low level winds across E OK / W AR beginning early Sunday. Fcst soundings show little to no inhibition along and east of the advance cold front and storms may redevelop as early as late morning and certainly by early afternoon.
152 PM MDT Sat Apr 19 2025 - A cold frontal passage this afternoon begins the active pattern this week, with daily chances for lower elevation rain mountain snow. The cold front pushing east across the state later today will continue to bring showers/mountain snow through the overnight hours Sunday. Cooler temperatures settle in behind the front, with temperatures cooling back towards normal for the week. A broad, upper level trough sets up along the Northwest U.
226 PM EDT Sat Apr 19 2025 Dry high pressure remains in place today and Sunday.
The WAA has pushed temps in to the lower 80s at this hour, but winds will slack close to sunset. Otherwise, cloud cover will keep lows mild in the low/mid 60s.
(Rest of Today and Tonight) A warm and humid day is underway as southerly flow persists as high pressure sits off the East Coast. Another mild night is ahead as well with lows in the lower to middle 60s for most areas expect a few upper 50s in parts of DeKalb County.
321 PM EDT Sat Apr 19 2025 * A cold front will push southeast across the region accompanied by showers and scattered thunderstorms, with a few containing strong westerly wind gusts over 60 mph.
Light rain is expected across the lower terrain of these areas.
* The next low pressure system is approaching from the west.
1217 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025 * Cooler conditions expected today with light rain expanding from the south this afternoon into tonight. * Area of low pressure will move through the central US on Sunday bringing heavy rain and the potential for severe weather.
THe lower clouds have almost completely cleared in our northeast (still some near Lake of the Woods) while shallow CU has developed over parts of southeast ND/west central MN. The positively tilted trough from Ontario to the Four Corners will become more split today as the northern branch portion moves off to the east. The southern branch upper low, will move from the Central Plains into the upper midwest, with most precipitation and winds from that system staying to our south and east.
1217 PM MST Sat Apr 19 2025 Weak high pressure and drier conditions will build in through the rest of the weekend in the wake of a weather disturbance departing the region.
A chilly start tomorrow morning with lows near freezing in the eastern valleys.
1210 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025 (Today through Sunday) An upper-level trough over the Rockies will move into the Central Plains by Sunday, helping to push a cold front southeast through Texas. This cold front looks to reach the northwestern portions of the CWA Sunday morning, before stalling as it traverses the CWA Sunday. With the trough shifting further east, the LLJ that has been sitting along the coast for the past several days will likely weaken and shift further east around sunrise this morning. Given the low confidence in reaching Wind Advisory criteria, will hold off on issuing an advisory for now, and reassess after the 12z sounding.
A weak cold front is moving through south-central Idaho this evening, bringing minimal impacts. Skies will clear overnight ahead of the next approaching upper-level trough. This trough is associated with increased mid-level moisture and better dynamics. Recent trends in high-resolution guidance suggest that showers and thunderstorms may develop farther north, into the Treasure Valley and Malheur County, late Sunday evening ahead of the trough axis.
720 PM EDT Sat Apr 19 2025 Dry high pressure remains in place this weekend.
(This afternoon through Sunday) Subtropical ridging continues to bring well above normal temperatures with highs peaking well into the mid to upper 80s this afternoon. Not much change in the overall pattern will occur through Sunday as the ridge only begins to flatten slightly southeastward in advance of a cold front pushing into the Mississippi Valley. This will bring another day of well above normal temperatures on Sunday, though highs may be a degree or two cooler given a bit more in the way of cloud cover.
Weather-wise, it remains quiet across the region, with high pressure keeping the area dry and temperatures hovering right around or just slightly above normal for this time of year.
1052 PM EDT Sat Apr 19 2025 * A cold front will push southeast across the region through late evening accompanied by showers and scattered thunderstorms, with a few containing strong westerly wind gusts over 60 mph.
With the increase in the low level jet, additional strong to severe thunderstorms may increase further northward along the front that extends northeastward to the south of I-44, given modest instability along and south of the front at present.
559 PM EDT Sat Apr 19 2025 Dry high pressure remains in place this weekend.
950 PM EDT Sat Apr 19 2025 Showers and thunderstorms can be expected at times today before a cold front moves into the area tonight into early Sunday.
(Rest of tonight and Sunday) As an upper level low continued to barrel through the southern Plains, the Tennessee Valley remains in an area of PVA ahead of a deepening trough axis moving eastward into the area as we approach the early part of the week. Dry conditions persist for now due to the Atlantic high slowing down the progression of the aforementioned low pressure system and subsequent cold front. This will allow for relatively warm low temperatures overnight-- remaining in the low to mid 60s. Easter Sunday brings continued dry conditions ahead of the cold front well to our west.
806 PM EDT Sat Apr 19 2025 High pressure will build into the area Sunday with a return to sunshine and somewhat cooler temperatures for the second half of the weekend.
655 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025 Tonight through Sunday Night: The region will remain on the western periphery of a ridge aloft centered just off the Florida/Georgia coastline. This, as high pressure at the surface likewise remains wedged into the forecast area from the west. A low pressure system will lift north northeast from the southern plains into the Upper Mississippi River Valley and Great Lakes Region Sunday afternoon into late Sunday night.