Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1147 AM CST Sat Jan 20 2024 Surface analysis late this morning places a 1043 mb ridge of high pressure over northwest Missouri. This is bringing sunny skies and precipitation free weather to the Lower Mississippi Valley. CJC Cold arctic high pressure will bring dry weather with temperatures well below normal through the weekend.
243 PM EST Sat Jan 20 2024 Arctic high pressure will build over our region through the weekend.
(Rest of today through Sunday) Drier and cooler air continues to filter in over South Florida, and will hang around throughout the weekend. Strong and broad high pressure building across the eastern US will be responsible for this brief stretch of cool temps, as persistent north-northeast winds setup across the area. High temperatures this afternoon will be in the low to mid 60s near the lake and in the upper 60s for most other locations.
The influence of this high will promote dry conditions and benign weather through the short term period. RH values this afternoon will also drop below critical fire danger criteria for several hours this afternoon where temperatures are warmer. Lows will likely drop into the single digits in the higher elevations of far north Georgia, and range from 10-20 degrees elsewhere across the forecast area.
Pattern Synopsis: NOAM pattern features an upper low along the eastern seaboard with broad ridging over the intermountain West and a deep polar low over arctic Canada. The CONUS low will lift into the Canadian maritimes overnight as ridging pushes east into the Plains and western Great Lakes. At the surface, broad high pressure over the middle Mississippi Valley will move to the Tennessee Valley by daybreak, with its influence covering much of the eastern half of the country. Forecast Details: As ridging aloft works into the region, drier air will make conditions less conducive for lake effect snow. A combination of greater cloud cover and a quicker transition to southwest low level flow means northwest lower is likely to remain a few degrees warmer tonight.
1235 PM EST Sat Jan 20 2024 Arctic high pressure will build over our region through the weekend.
225 PM CST Sat Jan 20 2024 - Warmer, but breezy, Sunday with southerly winds gusting 30-40 mph.
219 PM EST Sat Jan 20 2024 (Rest of today through Sunday) Drier and cooler air continues to filter in over South Florida, and will hang around throughout the weekend. Strong and broad high pressure building across the eastern US will be responsible for this brief stretch of cool temps, as persistent north-northeast winds setup across the area. High temperatures this afternoon will be in the low to mid 60s near the lake and in the upper 60s for most other locations.
Even with warmer air temperatures on Sunday, it will still feel quite cold with 30 to 45 mph wind gusts.
High pressure at the surface centered north of the region, will remain in control of our weather tonight and into Sunday.
This will keep temperatures a bit cooler today due to less mixing and sunshine. The clouds will keep temperatures from rising much, but with a warmer start and a little warm advection we should still get about 5 degrees warmer than yesterday. Still mainly in the 30s on the plains, but some warmer air south of Denver and in the mountains where there will be 40s. We'll carry a chance of snow after midnight, mainly over the ridges, with light amounts if anything. Enough moisture will impinge on the high country to sustain light snow showers, with minimal accumulations primarily confined to the higher elevations.
Temperatures in northwestern Missouri were -20F this morning, which is 52 degrees below freezing! With the cold front to the south of the Keys, temperatures are near or below 70. High pressure will drive through the eastern United States over the next couple of days. This high will move out into the Atlantic through the first half of the week.
A long wave ridge axis will slide into the Eastern United States over the next 48-hours. Meanwhile, the subtropical ridge over the central Atlantic will merge with long wave axis. At the surface, a large artic high pressure system initially centered over the Great Plains will slide steadily east southeast over the next several days, eventually exiting stage right into the North Atlantic.
(Through tonight) Expect a relatively quiet night tonight featuring chilly, but still warmer than last night's, temperatures. Overnight lows should be 5 to 10 degrees warmer than this morning in most spots.
1056 AM MST Sat Jan 20 2024 - Much warmer temperatures east of the Divide, with areas near Cody, Buffalo and Casper rising above freezing. Temperatures will be around the freezing mark, with a few exceptions.
While QPF is only going to be a couple hundreths of an inch, an additional 2 to 4 inches is possible in the Finger Lakes into the higher elevations of CNY south of the Thruway. Lake effect ends late tonight into tomorrow morning as upper level ridging builds in and warmer temperatures begin to return aloft.
915 AM PST Sat Jan 20 2024 A trough of low pressure moving inland across California today will bring rain this afternoon and tonight.
1107 AM CST Sat Jan 20 2024 (Today through Sunday night) A progressive ridge is passing over the panhandles today and Sunday which will continue the stretch of fair and dry weather. Highs today are expected to be in the 30s with the western panhandles warmer than the eastern panhandles. The winds will serve to move the colder air out of the area and push in warmer air across the panhandles. The warmer air will bring the temperatures closer to normal for Sunday with highs in the 40s and 50s. The progressive and generally weak nature of the ridge will allow mid to high clouds to stream across the panhandles for the weekend so expect partially sunny to mostly cloudy skies.
1148 AM CST Sat Jan 20 2024 (Today through Sunday) High pressure will continue to settle over the forecast area as a coastal trough simultaneously develops over the Lower Texas Coast. A weak warm front will start to move north over the CWA tonight, while aloft the mid-level pattern will transition from ridging to an upstream trough, shifting mid-level winds to southwest and a more unstable pattern.
(Tonight) A bitter cold arctic air mass remains entrenched across the mid TN Valley this Sun afternoon, as high pressure out of the Plains states builds into the Midwest/OH Valley regions. Current temps have struggled to climb past the upper teens in a lot of spots and its likely highs later today may not surpass the lower 20s.
647 PM CST Sat Jan 20 2024 - Chance (20 to 40 percent) of a light wintry mix of snow, sleet, or light freezing rain Sunday night.
But not confident enough yet to lower pops as Freezing Rain would have a high impact on the area. TFJ The warmer air has arrived and thankfully pushed aside the arctic air, signaling the end to nearly 2 weeks of brutally cold weather impacts across northeast Montana. Forecast challenge now turns to the likelihood of a wintry mix of freezing rain, sleet, and snow expected to move through the area on Sunday. Along with this change of air mass, will come a layer of warmer air aloft, while temperatures still at or below freezing remain at the surface. Any freezing rain that does fall will easily accumulate ice on all outdoor surfaces. Decided to issue a new Winter Weather Advisory for Freezing Rain for these zones expected to be most impacted.
Issued by National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 726 PM EST Sat Jan 20 2024 Snow showers will end tonight as high pressure builds across the region.
500 mb analysis fields show a ridge over Colorado currently. A lack of low level mixing has kept areas like Fort Collins and Greeley much cooler. A very minor trough within this moisture flow will move across Colorado tonight. There will be limited QG ascent associated with this trough so the only precipitation it will bring to our forecast area will be light snow showers in the mountains. The mountain ridges may receive up to 2 inches of snow and there will be minor impacts from this system. A good portion of the period will be dominated by general troughiness as a few upper level troughs deepen across the SW CONUS and move eastward.
616 PM EST Sat Jan 20 2024 (Rest of today through Sunday) Drier and cooler air continues to filter in over South Florida, and will hang around throughout the weekend. Strong and broad high pressure building across the eastern US will be responsible for this brief stretch of cool temps, as persistent north-northeast winds setup across the area. High temperatures this afternoon will be in the low to mid 60s near the lake and in the upper 60s for most other locations.
630 PM EST Sat Jan 20 2024 Arctic high pressure will build over our region through the rest of the weekend.
With temperatures on the warmer side (relative to climatological normals) precipitation type will fluctuate between rain and snow.
532 PM CST Sat Jan 20 2024 (Through tonight) Expect a relatively quiet night tonight featuring chilly, but still warmer than last night's, temperatures. Overnight lows should be 5 to 10 degrees warmer than this morning in most spots.
213 PM MST Sat Jan 20 2024 The warmer air has arrived and thankfully pushed aside the arctic air, signaling the end to nearly 2 weeks of brutally cold weather impacts across northeast Montana. Forecast challenge now turns to the likelihood of a wintry mix of freezing rain, sleet, and snow expected to move through the area on Sunday. Along with this change of air mass, will come a layer of warmer air aloft, while temperatures still at or below freezing remain at the surface. Any freezing rain that does fall will easily accumulate ice on all outdoor surfaces. Decided to issue a new Winter Weather Advisory for Freezing Rain for these zones expected to be most impacted.
351 PM CST Sat Jan 20 2024 - Chance (20 to 40 percent) of a light wintry mix of snow, sleet, or light freezing rain Sunday night.
559 PM CST Sat Jan 20 2024 - Warmer, but breezy, Sunday with southerly winds gusting 30-40 mph.
522 PM CST Sat Jan 20 2024 - Steady to rising temperature overnight with warmer highs in the upper 20s to lower 30s on Sunday.
115 PM PST Sat Jan 20 2024 A trough of low pressure moving inland across California will bring periods of rain tonight.
Expect a chilly night, with sensitive plants/vegetation looking at freezing conditions across the Nature Coast and conditions feeling close to freezing all the way down into SWFL. Drier and cooler air continues to filter across the region this afternoon as high pressure builds over the central U. Temperatures tonight will be even colder, with at or below freezing conditions expected from Pasco county northward. Mid-level ridging will also build over the Bahamas and Florida and this overall pattern shift will lead to increasing moisture and temperatures very quickly warming back up each day.
226 PM MST Sat Jan 20 2024 Current water vapor imagery and 500 mb analysis is showing ridging over MT with a line of light precip or virga weakening as it moves east into our central region. With the previously mentioned WAA in the low levels and surface temperatures below freezing, there is a slight chance of freezing rain for these areas.
640 PM EST Sat Jan 20 2024 Arctic high pressure will build over our region through the rest of the weekend.
348 PM CST Sat Jan 20 2024 - Steady to rising temperature overnight with warmer highs in the upper 20s to lower 30s on Sunday.
High pressure still is sitting in the middle of the CONUS to the north, which will continue to pump cold air advection into the area.
538 PM CST Sat Jan 20 2024 (Tonight) A bitter cold arctic air mass remains entrenched across the mid TN Valley this Sun afternoon, as high pressure out of the Plains states builds into the Midwest/OH Valley regions. Current temps have struggled to climb past the upper teens in a lot of spots and its likely highs later today may not surpass the lower 20s.
910 PM EST Sat Jan 20 2024 Arctic high pressure will build over our region through the rest of the weekend.
423 PM MST Sat Jan 20 2024 - Much warmer temperatures east of the Divide, with areas near Cody, Buffalo and Casper rising above freezing. Temperatures will be around the freezing mark, with a few exceptions.
145 AM CST Sun Jan 21 2024 - A chance of freezing rain enters our northwest tier of counties Monday morning. There is up to a 50% chance of minor impacts from light ice accumulation, mainly for the Ozarks counties and near vicinity, before temperatures rise above freezing Monday afternoon.
The combination of the southerly winds and a blanket of cirrus clouds drifting over eastern OK/northwestern AR will keep temperatures warmer compared to previous nights.
In addition, motorists should use caution on the roadways as black ice remains a concern with any wet spots from today freezing overnight. (Sunday through Monday night) Temps will begin to gradually rebound heading more into Sun, as high pressure begins to translate into the mid Atlantic region and a weak upper ridge axis builds eastward into the SE states. An upper trough pattern will then dig into the SW region late Mon into Mon night, as an active SW flow regime develops over the central/western Gulf states.
(Today through Monday afternoon) IR satellite imagery is showing extensive cloudiness moving into New Mexico and West Texas from an upper level trough over the Desert Southwest. A jet max feeding into the back of the trough will enhance lift and deepen the trough as it reaches our area allowing for a low chance for showers this morning and early afternoon from the Big Bend to the eastern Permian Basin. Given that current temperatures are below freezing across much of the area, light freezing rain will be a possibility. The arrival of the upper trough increases low level southeasterly flow and advects moisture into the Permian Basin from the Gulf of Mexico. Temperatures should hold above freezing tonight in the areas where fog develops so no freezing fog is expected.
With winds in the high side of the 5-10 knot range, low temperatures over the southern third of the forecast area are borderline for Hard Freeze criteria of 20F, but am keeping them in there for now.
322 AM EST Sun Jan 21 2024 Light snow showers and flurries will diminish across the area this morning, lingering longest in the higher elevations.
1100 PM MST Sat Jan 20 2024 - Much warmer temperatures east of the Divide, with areas near Cody, Buffalo and Casper rising above freezing. Temperatures will be around the freezing mark, with a few exceptions. Temperatures will be slightly warmer west of the Divide as a result, with readings 10 to 30 degrees warmer east of the Divide (finally getting rid of the arctic surges from last week and last Monday!). The Wind River Basin will still be below freezing today, unfortunately. These winds will be the reason why temperatures will be so much warmer across Johnson and Natrona counties today.
300 AM EST Sun Jan 21 2024 Arctic high pressure will build over our region today and tonight. This high will push east and offshore on Monday, starting a warming trend that will bring above normal temperatures later this week. Very cold arctic air will continue over the region today and tonight as the center of the 1040 mb high pressure builds overhead.
- Mix of freezing rain and sleet after midnight Sunday Night through early Monday morning.
- Precipitation chances return Sunday night and Monday with a mix of rain and freezing rain possible (15-50%).
257 AM CST Sun Jan 21 2024 Today and Tonight: The core of an Arctic high pressure system was situated over the confluence of the Mississippi and Ohio Rivers early this morning. Just to our west, our next weather maker will be taking shape as an upper-level trough crosses the Southern Rockies.
254 AM CST Sun Jan 21 2024 - Sleet and freezing rain expected across the region Sunday night into Monday morning.
The warmer temperatures and solar radiation should help melt some of the remaining snowpack, but temperatures will fall back into the teens to around 20 tonight which will refreeze any melting once again. All of Middle Tennessee will warm well above freezing into the 40s on Monday as an upper level ridge builds northward from the Gulf Coast, and this will kick operation snowmelt into high gear.
337 AM EST Sun Jan 21 2024 Canadian high pressure will maintain very cold temperatures through Monday morning. As the high pushes offshore, much warmer and humid air will overspread the Carolinas through the rest of the work week. Winds will be lighter today as high pressure settles overhead this afternoon. High pressure overhead, clear skies, and dry soils will produce great radiational cooling tonight. A few of our typical cold spots could drop into the lower teens to near 10 in the area peatland and pocosin.
High pressure is centered along the I-70 corridor in southern Illinois this evening with clear skies and light or calm winds in place across most of central Illinois. Some thin cirrus moving overhead may be a limiting factor in terms of widespread dense fog, but with temps in the single digits and below zero, some riming may still lead to slippery surfaces, especially bridges and overpasses. Deubelbeiss High pressure west of the Mississippi River will build eastward this evening. As the high gradually shifts into the Ohio River Valley, a light S/SE return flow will develop overnight, which will likely cause readings to rise a few degrees toward dawn. As warmer air flows northward over the cold/frozen ground, low clouds and light precip will develop late Sunday night.
236 AM EST Sun Jan 21 2024 Arctic high pressure will settle over the area this weekend.
This storm track is part of a long-wave trough that has developed over the western half on the United States. Embedded in this trough are several s/wvs, with two distinct s/wv troughs set to move through Arizona. The first s/wv trough arrives today, moisture and spotty/light showers are already developing across the state. More significant forcing arrives with the trough axis after 15Z today, working from west to east into this evening. The trough is not terribly cold and the curvature is dampened by another upstream system, so forcing is not great.
316 AM EST Sun Jan 21 2024 ================================================================= Key Message: * A few degrees warmer today/tonight, but still cold ================================================================= Strong high pressure centered over Kentucky early this morning will slide eastward to West Virginia by this evening and into Virginia/North Carolina tonight, resulting in a light southeast surface breeze this afternoon into tonight.
For the rest of the overnight, a very large and expansive high pressure centered across the Middle Mississippi River Valley, will continue to shift eastward. A large artic high pressure system initially centered over the Great Plains will slide steadily east southeast over the next several days.
Ridging over the western Ohio Valley will continue to erode the clouds and we'll likely see some sunshine today. Another area of low pressure over Texas will move northeast today and spread a mixture of snow/sleet/freezing rain/rain across the cwa beginning Monday morning with much of the accumulations occurring after Monday afternoon. Slippery travel is certainly possible by Monday afternoon as snow turns to a mix of sleet and freezing rain south of I-96.
957 PM CST Sat Jan 20 2024 - Chance (20 to 40 percent) of a light wintry mix of snow, sleet, or light freezing rain Sunday night. - Notably warmer temperatures for the upcoming week, especially towards mid-week. Given projected thermal profiles, freezing precipitation would be favored as the precip type. Current surface analysis places trough to the lee of the Canadian Rockies/Northern Rockies, with high over the Midwest. Upper level analysis places ridge over the Great Plains, and trough over the far western CONUS. The main concern with this is precipitation type as NBM guidance continues to suggest a wintry mix of snow, sleet, and light freezing rain which is supported by latest forecast soundings. As for temperatures, expect a return to near average highs for Sunday and Monday, with even warmer temperatures as we head towards mid-week.
However, there may be an isolated valley in eastern OR/far western ID where temps bottom out near 32F for a slight chance (less than 20 percent) of freezing rain. There is a chance (30%) for pockets of freezing rain in parts of eastern Oregon west of I-84 Sunday morning, as temperatures will be hovering right around the freezing mark.
Water vapor imagery and surface observations suggest that the ridge axis is moving overhead this afternoon, leading to an increase in mid and upper-level cloud cover along with some breezy southerly winds on our far eastern plains. Easterly winds and cold air have remained in place across lower elevations, especially for the lower Arkansas River Valley, where temperatures are still near freezing as of 2 PM. Expecting most of our mountain adjacent plains to warm a bit more this afternoon, with westerly flow behind the ridge axis helping to keep temperatures warmer through the overnight hours. This will be especially apparent across the banana belt region, where overnight lows might not even drop below freezing. Elsewhere on our plains and mountain valleys, expect overnight lows in the high teens to low 20s under mostly cloudy skies.
1234 AM EST Sun Jan 21 2024 (Rest of today through Sunday) Drier and cooler air continues to filter in over South Florida, and will hang around throughout the weekend. Strong and broad high pressure building across the eastern US will be responsible for this brief stretch of cool temps, as persistent north-northeast winds setup across the area. High temperatures this afternoon will be in the low to mid 60s near the lake and in the upper 60s for most other locations.
Today will be much warmer than yesterday, with highs in the 30s across the area as the warming southeast wind continues.
The rain will increase in coverage and intensity during the course of today as low pressure forms over the CRP CWFA and slowly begins moving north and east. High temperatures will recover a bit today as the low pulls a warm front through Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley. Tonight, a mixed bag of showers, light rain, and embedded isolated thunderstorms is anticipated as a deep 500 mb trough approaches from the west. Precipitation amounts of between one quarter of an inch and one inch are possible, with the highest totals progged to be over the northern ranchlands.
Over the next couple of days the high will weaken slightly as it advances eastward, becoming centered off the Mid- Atlantic coast on Monday. This will be due to the high moving further off the coast and reaching further out into the Atlantic. The high will continue onwards into the open Atlantic causing local winds to slacken and veer further. Interestingly, rain chances may actually fall due to falling lower level moisture, weakening kinematics, and a beefy mid level ridge. The high will slowly shift out into the Atlantic.
There's been a bit of a gap early this morning, but the high clouds will thicken again from the southwest this morning. We expect more widespread but pretty light snow over the ridges by mid morning, with some flurries getting into the valleys but little or now accumulation there.
847 AM EST Sun Jan 21 2024 Light snow showers and flurries will diminish across the area this morning, lingering longest in the higher elevations.
607 AM EST Sun Jan 21 2024 Canadian high pressure will maintain very cold temperatures through Monday morning. As the high pushes offshore, much warmer and humid air will overspread the Carolinas through the rest of the work week. Winds will be lighter today as high pressure settles overhead this afternoon. High pressure overhead, clear skies, and dry soils will produce great radiational cooling tonight. A few of our typical cold spots could drop into the lower teens to near 10 in the area peatland and pocosin.