Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Issued by National Weather Service Billings MT 1143 AM MDT Tue Jun 18 2024 - Much cooler today, with highs in the upper 50s to middle 60s.
1043 AM MDT Tue Jun 18 2024 - Cooler Today and Wednesday with a chance of showers and a few storms.
/NEW/ /Through Wednesday/ An influx of Gulf moisture associated with Potential Tropical Cyclone One will result in periodic showers and thunderstorms across North and Central Texas today and tomorrow. Fortunately, we'll get a brief break from the heat on Wednesday as a result of the increased cloud cover and precipitation, with high temperatures in the low to mid 80s.
The very broad upper level ridge centered over the Mid-Atlantic states will continue to build, with upper level heights increasing across the southern Appalachian states. In most cases, dewpoint observations are in the low to mid 60s with scattered to broken fair weather cumulus. Highs remain on track to top out in the lower 90s in most locations with easterly winds between 10 and 15mph. Partly cloudy skies can be expected tonight, with mostly high clouds streaming across the region with lows in the lower 70s.
(Tonight) High pressure continues to remain in control across the TN Valley this afternoon. Strong subsidence from this ridge will suppress rain chances overnight.
A high pressure system to our north continues to dominate the weather pattern across the state, keeping things relatively dry for the rest of today. This is due to the tightly packed pressure gradients over our area that are associated with our position between the presiding ridging to the north and a strengthening low pressure system out in the Western Gulf of Mexico. Slightly warmer temperatures are expected around the lower 90s, particularly across the Western side of the state due to the strong easterly winds.
Otherwise, as the high continues to expand westward, flow will gradually continue to become more southeasterly, with somewhat less humid air taking hold for Wednesday.
Didn't go wholesale with latest models as upper trough over the area will make things unstable this afternoon.
A broad trough of low pressure will remain over the Northern Rockies through the rest of the day. Scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue to develop and migrate eastward over north-central Idaho and western Montana while under the trough. e Seeley Lake, Ovando, Anaconda and Butte) are likely to reach freezing, though this isn't out of the climatological norm for this time of the year.
- Storms are expected to develop along a cold front mainly after 4 pm this afternoon and will become more widespread this evening as they track slowly southeastward. A mid/upper trough remains situated over the Northern Rockies and Northern High Plains. At the surface, a cold front was nosing into northwest Kansas. Showers and storms may linger into the morning hours Wednesday with clouds and rain cooled air over central KS keeping temperatures much cooler compared to recent days. The mid/upper ridge over the Mid-Atlantic area is progged to retrograde exerting a greater impact on the Central Plains area.
- Much cooler/colder daytime temperatures Wednesday with near record low daytime max temperatures.
This forecaster left the office for a long weekend last week with temperatures nearing 100 degrees, just to return with temperatures in the low 40s this morning. Expect a gradual warming trend through the remainder of the week as a troughy pattern over the western US breaks down and allows high pressure to intensify over the region.
146 PM EDT Tue Jun 18 2024 High pressure will remain over the Mid Atlantic and Carolinas through much of this week. These below-normal PW values will gradually get advected into central NC by deep (but weak) easterly flow around an anomalous mid/upper anticyclone centered just to our north. Dry air aloft and good boundary layer mixing beneath a strong inversion at 750-800 mb will help dew points decrease to the lower-60s in many places this afternoon, with even some upper-50s possible. The anomalous mid-level ridge will continue to deepen across the mid- Atlantic/northeast US on Wednesday, with heights peaking 2 to 3 standard deviations above climatology. As such, dew points will once again mix out into the lower 60s Wednesday afternoon.
Otherwise building upper level ridging influences from our east along with a continuance of southerly based low level atmospheric flow will provide for dry but seasonally warm temperatures through Wednesday afternoon. Prevalence of scattered to broken high level cloudiness at times will inhibit max heating potential and thus not expecting temperatures to get significantly warmer than these values despite enhancing upper level ridging influences.
605 PM MDT Tue Jun 18 2024 - Cooler through Wednesday with scattered showers and a few storms.
455 PM MDT Tue Jun 18 2024 - Cool and breezy weather continues as the trough slowly exits this evening. - Ridging redevelops Wednesday, prompting a warming trend that will persist through the weekend.
Isolated showers continue this evening across the higher terrain of the north, and this will end by midnight MDT. Tomorrow will be warmer than today with mostly clear skies.
703 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 (This evening through Wednesday) A line of thunderstorms are currently developing along a cold front, which extends from Hill City to Garden City (Kansas). Cloud-cover and rain chances linger over northwest Oklahoma through at least early afternoon, which should keep high temperatures in the low to mid-80's. Expect cloud-cover to begin increasing tomorrow afternoon and overnight from the southeast as the outer bands of Potential Tropical Cyclone One begins to influence our area.
The weather over the next couple of days looks quiet as a mix of weak troughing and zonal flow takes hold of the PacNW.
505 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 (Tonight) High pressure continues to remain in control across the TN Valley this afternoon. Strong subsidence from this ridge will suppress rain chances overnight.
608 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 - Strong to severe thunderstorms that have developed along the cold front this afternoon are expected to persist into this evening. - Much cooler temperatures (60s and low 70s) and continued unsettled weather is expected Wednesday. The main story with this forecast involves the showers and thunderstorms that have already developed along the boundary of a cold front moving east through the forecast area.
648 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 - A passing cold front will bring a risk for strong to severe convection across the eastern half of the forecast area into the early evening.
310 PM MDT Tue Jun 18 2024 - Cooler through Wednesday with scattered showers and a few storms.
315 PM MDT Tue Jun 18 2024 - Cool and breezy weather continues as the trough slowly exits this evening. - Ridging redevelops Wednesday, prompting a warming trend that will persist through the weekend.
854 PM EDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Seasonably warm conditions will continue for the next few days as high pressure sits well offshore. A strong ridge overhead and elongated high pressure offshore continues to bring onshore flow. A ridge over the mid-Atlantic gets nudged southward into the Mid South this period.
644 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 (Tonight through Wednesday night) A Tropical Storm warning is in effect as an area of low pressure spins over the Bay of Campeche this afternoon. Gradual strengthening has occurred during the day today and more convection is developing around the low. Still difficult to pinpoint the center as we watch for when it becomes a closed low.
741 PM EDT Tue Jun 18 2024 High pressure will cover the region through the end of the week. The persistent ridge as expected has largely suppressed the environment given some slight retrograding to the west and shifting of the more enhanced moisture axis.
The strong easterly winds will return tomorrow along with some of our moisture as an upper level trough looks to push through. A high pressure system to our north continues to dominate the weather pattern across the state, keeping things relatively dry for the rest of today. This is due to the tightly packed pressure gradients over our area that are associated with our position between the presiding ridging to the north and a strengthening low pressure system out in the Western Gulf of Mexico. Slightly warmer temperatures are expected around the lower 90s, particularly across the Western side of the state due to the strong easterly winds.
Much drier and warmer through the remainder of the week with building high pressure. Even with the high temperatures, water remains cold.
(Tonight through Wednesday night) A Tropical Storm warning is in effect as an area of low pressure spins over the Bay of Campeche this afternoon. Gradual strengthening has occurred during the day today and more convection is developing around the low. Still difficult to pinpoint the center as we watch for when it becomes a closed low.
728 PM EDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Seasonably warm conditions will continue for the next few days as high pressure sits well offshore. A strong ridge overhead and elongated high pressure offshore continues to bring onshore flow. A ridge over the mid-Atlantic gets nudged southward into the Mid South this period.
930 PM EDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Seasonably warm conditions will continue for the next few days as high pressure sits well offshore. A strong ridge overhead and elongated high pressure offshore continues to bring onshore flow. A ridge over the mid-Atlantic gets nudged southward into the Mid South this period.
721 PM EDT Tue Jun 18 2024 (Through Wednesday) The upper level high will build over the U. This will allow dry air to be ushered into the region, which combined with low pressure over the southwest, will lead to a tightening pressure gradient.
224 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024 - Thunderstorms for much of the morning today and cooler temperatures through the afternoon. This line of rain is basically straddlinga slow moving cold front. Models have had a hard time picking up on the location of the front as all of them have the boundary much further north into Kansas and as such that is where they are putting the highest rainfall. 75 inches of additional rainfall with the highest POPs (60-70%) along the KS-OK border and lower POPs as you move north.
404 AM EDT Wed Jun 19 2024 High pressure will remain anchored offshore through the week, resulting in a prolonged period of heat.
345 AM Update: Bermuda high pressure remains the dominant feature impacting the weather in our region. There is a chance for a bit more cirrus spilling up and over the ridge today and this may limit heating some, but not enough to drop below heat advisory criteria in all urban areas. Ridge starts to flatten out some on Thursday and some stronger westerlies slide south out of Canada and into our region. Also, PWATs will again be in the 99th percentile range and short Corfidi vectors of less than 10 knots suggest heavy down pours and back building thunderstorms will be possible, with a threat for localized flash flooding 110 PM Update: The short term period will feature more of the same weather; hot and humid with scattered showers and thunderstorms as multiple waves move around the periphery of the dominating ridge.
This cloud cover will begin departing the area to the west tomorrow, and highs will rebound into the lower 90s accordingly as the mid-level weakness is replaced by a strengthening upper ridge. All showers and storms should come to an end Thursday night as a mid level ridge quickly redevelops overhead.
The upper trough exits and is replaced by southwest flow later today leading to warmer and drier weather through this weekend.
134 AM EDT Wed Jun 19 2024 Seasonably warm conditions will continue for the next few days as high pressure sits well offshore. A strong ridge overhead and elongated high pressure offshore continues to bring onshore flow. A ridge over the mid-Atlantic gets nudged southward into the Mid South this period. Highs Thursday in the lower 90s inland, mid 80s at the coast.
1253 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024 - Strong to severe thunderstorms that have developed along the cold front this afternoon are expected to persist into this evening. - Much cooler temperatures (60s and low 70s) and continued unsettled weather is expected Wednesday. The main story with this forecast involves the showers and thunderstorms that have already developed along the boundary of a cold front moving east through the forecast area.
1134 PM MDT Tue Jun 18 2024 - Cooler through Wednesday with scattered showers and a few storms.
Upper level ridge will remain in place along the east coast through at least Thursday. There's quite a bit of cirrus along the western periphery of the ridge, which will filter the sun a bit at times.
A tropical cyclone is expected to make landfall this evening across northeastern Mexico. Otherwise, partly cloudy skies across most of the area will help high temperatures reach into the low 90s this afternoon.
Water Vapor and upper air models show upper wave that moved through the northern plains now situated over western Ontario, with upper trough over the PAC NW and southwest flow over our region. Light winds along with near freezing temperatures over some areas may allow for some frost to develop early this morning, mainly over northeast WY and the Black Hills. On the back side of the high later today, low level southeasterly flow returns, allowing for warmer air and moisture advection.
That good heat starts to make another appearance tomorrow as upper ridging takes over across the eastern half of the US. Could a shower eek through the ridge? Sure, but it's unlikely.
356 AM EDT Wed Jun 19 2024 High pressure, drier conditions, and near normal temperatures are expected through Thursday.
Thursday morning will be a bit warmer with overnight lows in the 40s to lower 50s. High temperatures Thursday will range in the 70s to lower 80s, but increased dewpoints will make it feel warmer.
The quasi- center of Potential Tropical Cyclone 1 (PTC 1) is still well out in the Gulf near the Bay of Campeche. Due to the tropical system being shunted further south thanks to a southwestward expanding upper ridge across the eastern CONUS, QPF amounts have come down significantly over the past few days with most likely totals less than or right around 0. With the cloud cover and rain chances, highs will be on the cooler side, ranging from the low 80s across our southeastern counties to the low 90s further west.
(Today through Thursday Night) To begin the period, high pressure.
An increase in cloud cover can be expected this afternoon, especially across southeast Oklahoma and west central Arkansas, which should keep temperatures a couple of degrees cooler than observed yesterday.
This cloud cover will begin departing the area to the west tomorrow, and highs will rebound into the lower 90s accordingly as the mid-level weakness is replaced by a strengthening upper ridge. /NEW/ /Thursday Night Onward/ A mid level ridge centered over the Ohio Valley will build southwest into North and Central Texas starting Thursday night, providing hot, humid, and rain-free conditions for the weekend. Unfortunately, it will only increase dewpoints and heat indices locally, while the ridge shuts off any convective attempts and shunts all precipitation to our south.
Meanwhile, aloft a mid level ridge extending from southwest Texas to the Ohio Valley will build northward and westward with the axis progged to extend from Far West Texas trough North Texas and southern Oklahoma by end of day today. Shifting to convective initiation this afternoon, both the weak frontal boundary across the Panhandle and the higher terrain of central and northern New Mexico are favored as these areas are along an arcing low level instability axis and will have convective focus through convergence or topography. However, the placement of the ridge could be a significant hindrance while mid level steering flow will try to keep precipitation to the northwest and north of the ridge axis.
Lighter southwest winds are taking place this afternoon compared to yesterday as a low pressure trough lifts towards the north and west. Temperatures are on the "cooler" side than they have been lately, currently near average for this time of year. For Wednesday, anticipate another hot and dry day with typical afternoon southwest breezes as the trough retrogrades westward allowing a strengthening high pressure system towards the east to migrate westward. Along with being on the western fringes of this high pressure system, tropical moisture from a potential tropical storm in southern Texas looks to make its way northeastward during this time.
A strong upper level ridge over the Mid Atlantic had maximum heights at 500mb of near 597 decameters over WV/VA. This upper high will move a bit further to the north and amplify even more to the upper 590s to 600 decameters, and help produce unseasonably hot weather over much of the eastern and NE Lower-48. This ridge should weaken somewhat and build more to the south in the latter portion of the week. Somewhat lower heights due to the upper high drifting further to our NE should result in a "cooler" day for Juneteenth, with highs in the upper 80s to around 90.
The later half of the week will also be characterized by a warming trend heading into the weekend with ridging situated across the east.
Current mesoanalysis shows an upper-level trough over the western U. by the Rocky Mountains, with a ridge over the eastern U. Hot and humid conditions prevail, with temperatures reaching into the mid-80s with the exception of the SE portions of our CWA, where temps are around 80 due to heavier cloud cover, and dewpoints in the high 60s and low 70s. Wednesday paints a similar picture to today, namely hot and humid conditions, with high temperatures reaching into the upper 80s and low 90s, and dewpoint temps in the high 60s. A cold front is forecast to pass through central NE, north-central KS, and northern MO. Model guidance consistently builds a strong ridge over the central and eastern U.
Hot and dry conditions continue with strong ridging in place. Discussion: NAFES anomalies depicts a strong upper ridge persists across the mid-Atlantic states into the Tennessee valley and Appalachians. Even though a good deal of ci/cs high level cloudiness is expected today, the dry air will allow temperatures to warm into the lower 90s most locations in the valley.
340 AM EDT Wed Jun 19 2024 High pressure will remain over the Mid Atlantic and Carolinas through much of this week. Water vapor imagery this morning continues to highlight the anomalous mid-level ridge anchored over the eastern seaboard. Sfc dewpoints across central NC remain in the lower to mid 60s (the plume of higher dew points > 70 has largely been displaced well to our north and west). The anomalous mid-level ridge will de-amplify a bit Thursday as the center of the anticyclone retrogrades over the southeast. As such, max temps will remain near 90 and heat indices will remain under criteria as dew points once again mix out into the lower 60s.
(Today through Thursday afternoon) Another breezy night and morning as the low level jet continues to push low level moisture across the area. These clouds will lift, but deeper moisture associated with Potential Tropical Cyclone One begins to move into the region as the system moves onshore later today. Mid level clouds move into the region and rain chances begin to increase, particularly across the higher elevations where terrain will aid in shower development. With the additional moisture and the thermal ridge pushing further west, temperatures end up 5-10 degrees cooler than yesterday with most places reaching the low to mid 90s. Expect breezy, near advisory criteria winds over the higher elevations of Brewster and Presidio tonight and into Thursday morning.
Otherwise, slightly drier air and high pressure will move into north Louisiana/Mississippi late Wednesday into Thursday helping to limit rain chances inland.
Much drier and warmer through the remainder of the week with building high pressure.
1216 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024 (This evening through Thursday) An upper level ridge was located over the eastern US, and Arkansas was on the western edge of it. The ridge will strengthen over the eastern US a bit thru the short term, and dry weather is expected to prevail.
Upper level trough will dig over California through midweek, with breezy onshore winds continuing and temperatures near seasonal averages prevailing through Thursday.
The weather over the next couple of days looks quiet as a mix of weak troughing and zonal flow takes hold of the PacNW. The upper level trough over the western USA remains in place with the current trough axis just east of the forecast area. The main energy in the upper level trough will continue to move east over the next couple of days leaving a weak upper level trough over the region Wednesday and Thursday.
This afternoon, the surface analysis shows a 997 mb low in SW Kansas and a 997 mb low in E South Dakota, connected by a cold front which roughly runs from Smith Center KS to Scott City KS. Current thinking is that thunderstorms that form on the front will become linear and grow upscale rather quickly, due to strong convergence in the low levels, weak shear, and storm motion parallel to the boundary. The upper level ridge builds significantly to the west on Thursday, and the boundary finally leaves the area. Warmer and drier weather are likely to return for the end of this work week, and temperatures will return to the 90s across much of the area.
- Much cooler daytime temperatures expected on Wednesday, with near record low daytime max temperatures.
1058 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 (This evening through Wednesday) A line of thunderstorms are currently developing along a cold front, which extends from Hill City to Garden City (Kansas). Cloud-cover and rain chances linger over northwest Oklahoma through at least early afternoon, which should keep high temperatures in the low to mid-80's. Expect cloud-cover to begin increasing tomorrow afternoon and overnight from the southeast as the outer bands of Potential Tropical Cyclone One begins to influence our area.
1004 PM MDT Tue Jun 18 2024 - Cool and breezy weather continues as the trough slowly exits this evening. - Ridging redevelops Wednesday, prompting a warming trend that will persist through the weekend.
Strong easterly flow driven by the ridging to the north and the developing low in the Gulf will continue to dictate our weather for the next couple of days.
KBYX radar has been pretty active this morning in the vicinity of the Lower and Middle Keys, with much drier conditions being observed in the adjacent Upper Keys. Outside of any passing showers, skies are partly cloudy across the CWA, with temperatures generally in the lower to mid 80s. Elected to split the Florida Keys zones for higher measurable rain chances and slightly lower high temperatures in the Lower and Middle Keys. Occasional scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms, particularly in the vicinity of the Lower and Middle Keys, will produce heavy downpours reducing visibility and wind gusts generally 25 to 30 knots. A weak area of low pressure will begin to develop later this afternoon a few hundred miles north of the central Bahamas and move towards the Southeast U.
Also, temperatures have stayed a few degrees cooler due to rain and associated cloud cover.
A broad trough positioned across the western U. Temperatures will be warmer than they have been during this period due to rising heights and high pressure building westward, but the increased moisture and shower activity will keep them from rising too much. Subtropical high pressure is forecast to build over the southwest and center near the AZ/NM border by late in the weekend.