Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
918 PM EDT Wed Jul 17 2024 - The cold front will continue to trek across central PA tonight along with a band of mainly stratiform rain showers. - High pressure will build in from the Great Lakes on Thursday and bring mainly fair weather with seasonable temperatures through the end of the week. The cold front is continuing to slide east across the state just behind an area of mainly stratiform rain showers. The front is moving quickly along in conjunction with the 500mb upper level trough and is expected to be in far SE PA by 06Z.
Monsoonal moisture has shifted eastward as the ridge builds in over the region today. While winds along the ridges are forecast to be relatively light, any storm that forms has potential for gusty and erratic outflows in the vicinity.
This upper trof will gradually progress east tonight, though a subtle trailing wave digs across Lk Huron Thu morning. Min temps will be much cooler than seen in recent days, from the upper 40s thru the 50s. High pressure will begin to build into the area on Thursday which will promote rain-free conditions. Though temperatures are expected to remain in the low to mid-70s areawide despite scattered cloud cover. High pressure is expected to persist over the Great Lakes through the end of the week and possibly the majority of the weekend.
Lows will range from the low to mid 70s in most places, staying closer to the 80 degree mark along the immediate coast.
618 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024 (This evening through Thursday) With the current MCV spinning out across across central Oklahoma, a surface boundary/summertime cold front pushing through our moist surface layer along with vorticity forcing in the mid-levels of the bottom of the trough, will keep storm POPs in through the afternoon across all but northern Oklahoma which is post-frontal. Upper Midwest Region will result in northeast winds for Thursday while the upper ridge over the Western U. However will be tapping into more temperate Pacific air aloft so not expecting any strong warming under this ridge at least for the Southern Plains. As a result, expecting to see temperatures about 5 degrees cooler than normal on Thursday with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s.
742 PM EDT Wed Jul 17 2024 Showers and thunderstorms across portions of the region this afternoon will shift east and diminish this evening as a cold front sweeps through the forecast area. Cooler and drier weather returns thereafter for the end of the week and into the weekend with along with a long awaited break in humidity.
610 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024 (Tonight through Thursday night) Key Messages: - Minor to moderate risk of heat-related impacts Thursday A weak cold front is expected push the mid to upper-level low pressure out of the region into the Gulf tomorrow as moisture pools up across South Texas with PWAT ranging from 1.
1053 PM EDT Wed Jul 17 2024 A pattern change begins to evolve by Thursday, as a cold front approaches from the northwest, then becomes stationary across our region for several days. Otherwise, upper troffing will linger to our north over the Great Lakes while broad upper ridging persists to our west and to our east. At the sfc, Canadian high pressure will persist to our NW while the Bermuda High keeps moist, southerly low-lvl flow to our south. The flow around the subTrop ridge will will allow for very good moist advect each day and cross sections indicate high saturation thru the mid levels. The high cloud cover and rather warm mid levels will limit sbCAPE potential each day as sfc heating is curtailed a cat or so below normal, but diff heating will allow for robust and longer lived cells.
Atlc high pressure ridge axis will remain draped across central FL with a light south wind component, increasing out of the E/SE behind the sea breeze this afternoon 10-15 mph with some higher gusts near the coast. The ridge axis will remain nearly stationary across the area Friday then lift slowly northward this weekend. Model guidance indicates approach of deeper moisture from the SE around the southern periphery of the Atlc ridge, possibly assocd with a weak tropical wave. Slightly above normal temperatures are forecast to continue across east central Florida, with afternoon highs in the low to mid 90s and overnight lows in the mid to upper 70s.
1233 AM EDT Thu Jul 18 2024 A pattern change begins to evolve by Thursday, as a cold front approaches from the northwest, then becomes stationary across our region for several days. Low level stratus and fog is starting to creep into the mountains and is expected to expand given the high dewpoints and light winds. Otherwise, upper troffing will linger to our north over the Great Lakes while broad upper ridging persists to our west and to our east. At the sfc, Canadian high pressure will persist to our NW while the Bermuda High keeps moist, southerly low-lvl flow to our south.
315 AM EDT Thu Jul 18 2024 Cooler and tranquil conditions are expected the rest of the work week. Temperatures trend warmer this weekend as quiet conditions also continue, though a stray passing shower or two cannot be ruled out. Temperatures were a blend of NBM and NBM 10th percentile because flow becomes northwesterly overnight as an upper-level trough moves through. Another quiet day is expected Friday with high pressure still in control. Northwest flow will keep temperatures on the more comfortable side with highs ranging in the mid to upper 70s with some spots in the low 80s.
Showers and thunderstorms are forecast to develop along these sea breeze boundaries, with some of the highest potential for thunderstorms at coastal WCFL and SWFL terminals this afternoon.
Showers and thunderstorms have been moving through central Idaho and west-central to northwest Montana overnight, associated with a low-pressure system in eastern Washington.
1230 AM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024 (The rest of tonight) Analyses indicate remnant mid level MCV/associated trough over sern OK this evening.
Large area of strong high pressure remains centered upstream over the Northern Plains and the Upper Mississippi Valley early this morning. Low level ridging is becoming well established across the Western Great Lakes region as upstream high pressure begins to nose into our region. High pressure center will drift SE over the next 24 hours. Ridging. High temps this afternoon will warm into the low to mid 70s. with overnight lows cooling back into the low to mid 50s. Forecast highs generally ranging from near 80 to the low 80s (perhaps even a few mid 80s mixed in) with lows in the mostly comfortable mid 50s to low 60s. High pressure in the northern plains will bring drier air to the region.
- Severe potential late in the week followed by cooler weather for the weekend. The approaching cold front will support lift across the region, leading to the development of showers and thunderstorms.
An upper level ridge will continue to meander around the southwestern US bringing north to northwesterly flow aloft overhead. Convection forming locally would be due to diurnal heating but temperatures are expected to be a few degrees cooler today. Deep mixing will occur today despite the cooler temperatures leading to the erosion of the cap by mid-afternoon. A favorable low level upslope flow regime will continue to favor initial convective development off of the higher terrain of New Mexico into the Raton Mesa. However, expected cooler temperatures today will bring less instability when the storms will be arriving.
351 AM EDT Thu Jul 18 2024 High pressure will build in and persist through the weekend. Sprawling high pressure over the upper midwest will spread into the region through the day. This will bring a drier and cooler airmass to the region. Center of the high will sink into the lower Great Lakes and remain there through Friday. This high will keep below normal temperatures and relatively low dewpoints over our area.
* Cooler temperatures through the weekend as highs fall back into the upper 70s to upper 80s.
There are a few more boundaries that are present across the northern part of Alabama that are ahead of a surface cold front. An upper level short wave rotates around the longwave trough and over Central Alabama on Thursday. An upper-level low positioned over eastern Texas is dampening the ridge and resulting in some weak low-level troughing over the Lower MS River Valley. A cold front will also move southeast into the area overnight and through tomorrow associated with a low pressure system over eastern Quebec. The enhanced coverage of rainfall should help to bring heat indices down despite dewpoints in the lower to mid 70s.
- Near to below normal temperatures will continue through the weekend as cooler air funnels into the region. By tonight, expect mostly quiet conditions to continue as warm air advection (WAA) strengthens on the backside of the departing mid-level ridge setting the stage for our next precipitation chances heading into Friday.
251 AM EDT Thu Jul 18 2024 Cooler and drier weather returns for the end of the week and into the weekend along with a long awaited break in humidity.
It's influence will wane through the day as it is pushed southward by the advancing larger scale trough rotating through the forecast area.
Showers and thunderstorms with locally heavy downpours impacted mainly our eastern and far northern counties yesterday and overnight with the approach of a mid level trough and frontal zone.
(Today through Friday) A mid to upper level trough will continue to dig south into the Lower Mississippi River Valley. At the surface, a cold front across the Hill Country will drift southward then stall well north of our region. Lows tonight will range from the mid 70s to the low 80s.
1218 AM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024 - Gradual warmup through the week with highs in the low to mid 80s this weekend. Mostly sunny skies through the week as high pressure builds overhead. Otherwise, high pressure will lead to light and variable winds tonight, becoming southwest on Thursday. High pressure will keep wind gusts at or below small craft criteria through Friday when southwest winds may increase gusts to 25 knots along the far North Shore.
138 AM EDT Thu Jul 18 2024 A cold front moves through the area into early this morning. The front then becomes nearly stationary Thursday afternoon as high pressure slowly builds and settles in on Friday.
(Today through Friday) Water vapor imagery this morning reveals the upper ridge retreating west as a trough begins to dig across the Midwest. MSAS analysis depicts a weak cold front well to our north. High temperatures today and tomorrow will settle into the low 90s to around 100 degrees.
An upper trough continues to move further away from the region this evening, ending the showers and thunderstorms. Amplification of the ridge on Thursday supports a couple of degrees of warming. Moisture available for convection (15-30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms) will be limited to far southern Idaho, including the highlands along the Nevada border. An upper level ridge centered over the Great Basin will amplify and slowly shift west on Thursday and Friday.
1222 AM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024 (Tonight through Thursday night) Key Messages: - Minor to moderate risk of heat-related impacts Thursday A weak cold front is expected push the mid to upper-level low pressure out of the region into the Gulf tomorrow as moisture pools up across South Texas with PWAT ranging from 1.
(Today through Friday Night) Looking at the pattern aloft, a large ridge will reside over the western states, with troughing in most areas east of the Rockies. Meanwhile, high pressure will build behind/to the north of the front from the upper Midwest to the Ohio Valley.
Key Message(s): - Scattered to numerous afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms with the potential for gusty winds and flash flooding - Daytime temperatures expected to be near normal by Friday behind the passage of a cold front Upper trough continues to take shape over the eastern half of the country during the short term as the upper ridge in the west builds. At the surface, a weakening cold front will slowly sink southeast towards the FA on Thursday, stalling across the region on Friday. While the stalled frontal boundary will eventually dissipate, the upper level pattern remains largely unchanged with troughing over the eastern CONUS sending a series of short waves through the CWA.
215 AM EDT Thu Jul 18 2024 More tranquil, seasonable weather is expected after the front passes through tonight as high pressure builds into the region from the west. A cold front will continue to cross the region overnight. A positively-tilted upper- level trough will approach the region on Thursday. Highs will be closer to climatological normals for the second half of July with highs in the mid-70s to mid-80s in the valleys and upper 60s to lower 70s in the higher elevations. Any showers in the Adirondacks will end Thursday night as the trough departs to the east. High pressure will quickly build into the region overnight. The remainder of the short term period will remain tranquil and comfortable with high pressure building in from the west.
A deep, positive-tilt upper trough was evident in early morning water vapor imagery, stretching from Quebec southwest through the western Great Lakes and mid-Mississippi valley. The upper trough axis will push across the area through early afternoon, before moving east and southeast by this evening. As the high builds southeast breezy north-northeast winds currently gusting 20-25 kts over the lake will gradually diminish, hazardous swimming conditions will persist for IL beaches at least through midday, and likely through this afternoon/early evening along the IN shore. Low- level north- northeast winds will also provide cooler temperatures across the area, ranging from the low-mid 70s near the lake to the mid- upper 70s farther inland.
318 AM EDT Thu Jul 18 2024 Low clouds and fog will end this morning as high pressure builds across the region. The high will maintain dry and less humid conditions through the weekend for much of the area.
Upper troughing will continue to dig into the ArkLaTex overnight, with upper level vorticity spinning across East Texas through daybreak as seen on RAP analysis and HREF hi-res. This low will be the catalyst for our first round of thunderstorms through the evening hours, and into tomorrow morning. This MCS will begin to drop south overnight, as the cold front begins to force its hand.
428 AM EDT Thu Jul 18 2024 * High pressure brings cooler, drier, and less humid conditions to the region through the end of the workweek.
This will again lead to forcing for ascent today, and when coupled with the high moisture content (PWATs around 2 - 2. Expect daytime highs generally in the low to mid 90s with overnight lows generally in the mid to upper 70s.
357 AM EDT Thu Jul 18 2024 * High pressure brings cooler, drier, and less humid conditions to the region through the end of the workweek.
1240 AM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024 (Tonight through Thursday night) An upper level trough will continue to translate across the Plains tonight into tomorrow, sending a cold front southward toward Texas Hill Country. The cold front is expected to stall well to the north of our region, which will maintain near to slightly above normal temperatures across Deep South Texas through the short term period.
Discussion: Upper heights will continue to lower through the period as a large scale trough over the Great Lakes and into the mid and lower Mississippi river valley shifts slowly southeastward. For tonight into Thursday, we should get another round or two of convection as the upper trough and associated surface front approach from the northwest. Increasing influence from the right entrance region of a jet on the eastern periphery of that upper trough should promote some nocturnal convection tonight, then another round of diurnally driven afternoon storms are expected tomorrow.
341 AM EDT Thu Jul 18 2024 A cold front will be moving off the coast this morning, bringing drier and not as hot conditions for the end of the week into the weekend. High pressure builds in from the west with mostly dry conditions forecast through the weekend. Showers wrap up along the coast early this morning as a cold front pushes off into the Atlantic. Friday is set to be almost full sun as high pressure moves south of the region.
Sfc flow out of the E/NE and H500 flow out of the NW will promote cooler than normal temperatures across the state.
High pressure remains situated over Arizona today, keeping monsoonal moisture flowing into the state. Storm activity looks to initially develop over the higher terrain across much of northern and central Arizona late this morning into early part of the afternoon. As storms mature and outflows begin to develop, storm activity should beginning to increase across the lower elevations from about mid-afternoon through the evening hours.
This is causing northern winds on the eastern side of the high to work into and across southern Indiana and central Kentucky, pushing moisture south out of Kentucky. Highs are expected to only reach into the low to mid 80s. Cooler nightly temperatures return as lows drop into the mid 50s to low 60s.
Today will be the coolest day of the stretch, with highs peaking in the upper 70s, then gradual warming occurs through the weekend as highs return to the low 80s, which is still below normal.
A trough of low pressure is exiting the state to the NE with a diminishing thunderstorm threat into the evening hours.
240 AM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024 - Quiet and warmer today with highs in the mid to upper 70s. Very quiet weather out there with high pressure in place. A broad ridging pattern aloft starts to break down on Friday in favor of a bit more of a messy upper-level troughing setup. The highest rainfall amounts should be a quarter inch or less.
1259 AM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024 Cold front over southern KY is now poised to move southward into the mid state this evening and tonight. Those behind the boundary will see some cooler temperatures and some slightly lower humidity.
This frontal forcing and increased troughing influence will promote additional convective initiation this afternoon, though this may be more focused to areas south and east of Interstates 40 & 81 depending on the exact timing of the frontal passage. The veering of winds to the north will usher in cooler and drier air.
139 AM EDT Thu Jul 18 2024 More tranquil, seasonable weather is expected after the front passes through tonight as high pressure builds into the region from the west. A cold front will continue to cross the region overnight. A positively-tilted upper- level trough will approach the region on Thursday. Highs will be closer to climatological normals for the second half of July with highs in the mid-70s to mid-80s in the valleys and upper 60s to lower 70s in the higher elevations. Any showers in the Adirondacks will end Thursday night as the trough departs to the east. High pressure will quickly build into the region overnight. The remainder of the short term period will remain tranquil and comfortable with high pressure building in from the west.
409 AM EDT Thu Jul 18 2024 A cold front slowly gets to the east today, and gets further offshore late tonight as high pressure builds. The high settles over the region on Friday.
1246 AM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024 - 20 to 40% chance of precipitation Friday afternoon and evening, with the highest chances across central South Dakota. At 500mb the forecast area remains in between the high amplitude ridge originating from the 4-corners region through much of western Canada, and the trough across much of the eastern U.
132 AM EDT Thu Jul 18 2024 A cold front will sweep through the Ohio Valley tonight, bringing a cooler and drier airmass for the rest of the work week and into the weekend. High pressure moving into the area in the wake of the front will keep dry weather and temperatures below normal through most of the upcoming weekend. Cold front across eastern counties will move out of the area before daybreak. Skies should clear through the night as the upper trough departs, and temperatures drop into the 50s and lower 60s. Temperatures a good 8-10F below normal as the mid level height trough/low level thermal troughs move across the area.
1114 PM EDT Wed Jul 17 2024 * High pressure brings cooler, drier, and less humid conditions to the region through the end of the workweek.
340 AM EDT Thu Jul 18 2024 Shower and thunderstorm coverage will increase ahead of an approaching cold front today.
305 AM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024 - High pressure influence spells dry and below normal conditions today and Friday.
Current satellite imagery showing high pressure over the area this morning, with clouds to the west in Saskatchewan and Montana.
1253 AM EDT Thu Jul 18 2024 Areas of low clouds and fog are expected tonight as a cold front slowly moves south across the region. High pressure will return dry conditions and seasonable temperatures the remainder of the week and into the weekend. KEY MESSAGES: - Areas of stratus and fog tonight __________________________________________________________________ A cold front was analysed across west central PA through NE Ohio. Stout mixing into the day on Friday under high pressure will result in temperatures near normal, and fairly low humidity. KEY MESSAGES: - Mainly dry weekend with high pressure in control.
It's another quiet morning thanks to a 1020+ mb high pressure overhead. High pressure will remain across Minnesota and Wisconsin through Friday, which will lead to dry weather conditions with seasonable temperatures and low humidity.
1229 AM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024 (This evening through Thursday night) Today, an upper-level ridge is in the process of retrograding from New Mexico more toward the Four Corner states intersection, causing northwesterly flow aloft. This may cause any convection that moves off the higher terrain to stay west and south of the Panhandles. This would keep any convection that develops on the higher terrain out of the CWA.
(Rest of Today) Surface observations indicate the cold front prompting yesterday and last nights storms and current cloudy conditions is right on the door step of NW AL. This cold front will continue SE throughout the day and provide the lift necessary to trigger additional rounds of scattered rain and storms.
A few readings in the low 90s are expected in the southwest today.
Northwest flow continues over the plains around a ridge near the Four Corners. At the surface, south to southeast winds around high pressure in the northern plains continues to advect moisture into the area.
1002 AM EDT Thu Jul 18 2024 Shower and thunderstorm coverage will increase ahead of an approaching cold front today.
836 AM EDT Thu Jul 18 2024 The high will maintain dry and less humid conditions through the weekend for much of the area.
651 AM EDT Thu Jul 18 2024 High pressure will build in and persist through the weekend. Sprawling high pressure over the upper midwest will spread into the region through the day. This will bring a drier and cooler airmass to the region. Center of the high will sink into the lower Great Lakes and remain there through Friday. This high will keep below normal temperatures and relatively low dewpoints over our area.
738 AM EDT Thu Jul 18 2024 A cold front slowly gets to the east today, and gets further offshore late tonight as high pressure builds. The high settles over the region on Friday.
In the upper levels, there is a longwave trough extending from Quebec SWD across much of the ERN half of Conus. This will allow for possibly a couple of degrees lower on the highs and this should occur a little earlier than a normal day with convection onset cutting the normal diurnal heating short.
545 AM EDT Thu Jul 18 2024 Low clouds and fog will end this morning as high pressure builds across the region. The high will maintain dry and less humid conditions through the weekend for much of the area.
619 AM EDT Thu Jul 18 2024 A cold front slowly gets to the east today, and gets further offshore late tonight as high pressure builds. The high settles over the region on Friday.
Lows should run in the lower and mid 70s tonight and tomorrow night.