Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
- Rain is possible late Sunday night into Monday, but road temps should be well above freezing by the time this system comes in. Going into the overnight hours, a weak cold front will move across the region which will help to scour out the fog. 06z HRRR shows a band of scattered rain showers developing out ahead of the cold front, possibly getting into SW WI around midnight then tracking to the east and being over Lake Michigan by 6am. Temperatures will be above freezing, so no concern over it freezing or being snow.
Rain chances will remain minimal today but increase by tonight as a series of weak fronts move through the Lower Mississippi Valley through mid-week.
611 AM EST Sun Dec 15 2024 Strong high pressure across New England will slowly weaken as it gradually shifts offshore allowing for a warming trend into mid week.
431 AM CST Sun Dec 15 2024 - Light freezing drizzle has resulted in a light glaze of ice and slick travel this morning over parts of eastern North Dakota and northwest Minnesota.
530 AM CST Sun Dec 15 2024 (Today through Monday) An upper trough will skirt east of our longitude today, resulting in decreasing lift and the slowing/degradation of an upstream surface front.
516 AM CST Sun Dec 15 2024 Rain chances will remain minimal today but increase by tonight as a series of weak fronts move through the Lower Mississippi Valley through mid-week.
It will be much colder behind the cold front today with highs in the 20s and 30s.
548 AM CST Sun Dec 15 2024 (Today through Monday) A short wave trough over IL is gradually lifting. An upper level trough will track out of the Rockies into the Great Lakes on Monday. A cold front will approach the area Monday evening with periods of rain continuing ahead of the front. The cold front will stall out over the region as the trough lifts into Canada. Highs Monday will push into the low to mid 60s.
435 AM CST Sun Dec 15 2024 (Today) An upper low was moving into northern IL with a negatively tilted trough axis swinging through the lower OH and TN valleys. Showers that have been advancing east of I-65 have tended to dissipate some due to an impressive wedge of drier air in low to mid levels resulting from surface-8h ridging east of the Appalachians.
An upper low/trough pattern is also moving eastward over the OH Valley and as the system continues to exit to the ENE, these pockets of light rain should diminish later today. Highs look to range from the lower 50s east to near 60F west for most spots.
(Today through Monday) An upper trough will skirt east of our longitude today, resulting in decreasing lift and the slowing/degradation of an upstream surface front.
- Strong west to southwest winds are expected across the higher terrain and normal gap-flow areas through the day today.
255 AM MST Sun Dec 15 2024 - Upper level trough will continue to bring good chances for light rain, light freezing rain, and snow today into this evening from northeast WY to the northern Black Hills and northwest SD, with a trailing cool front bringing gusty west to northwest winds later today into Monday.
(Today and tonight) Early this morning, southerly flow is increasing in the low levels which is resulting in increasing low clouds, especially south of Interstate 20. The low clouds however are expected to be more stubborn, hanging on through most of the day with some breaks expected by mid to late afternoon. Highs will be warmer than normal again, climbing into the mid 70s for most locations. Overnight, a cold front will move south near the northern border of our forecast area as a weak upper level trough nears the area from the west.
350 AM MST Sun Dec 15 2024 - Upper level trough will continue to bring good chances for light rain, light freezing rain, and snow today into this evening from northeast WY to the northern Black Hills and northwest SD, with a trailing cool front bringing gusty west to northwest winds later today into Monday.
550 AM CST Sun Dec 15 2024 - Light freezing drizzle has resulted in a light glaze of ice and slick travel this morning over parts of eastern North Dakota and northwest Minnesota.
- Winter Weather Advisory in the west for freezing rain accumulations. The upper level low will slide across the northern half of the state. FREEZING RAIN: With above freezing air temperatures around 850mb leftover from the previous ridge lingering around and the low pressure system, freezing rain is likely this morning. The area of most concern would be the northwest where the highest QPF is. The majority of model soundings are all in agreement of a warm nose and saturation to create freezing rain, so confidence in this event is high. FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW TIMING: Around 5am CT through about 1pm CT. The low chance of 2 inches is the same area as the medium chance of 1 inch.
532 AM CST Sun Dec 15 2024 Updated aviation portion for 12Z TAF issuance - Hazardous travel due to light freezing rain is expected this morning for areas north of Highway 29.
Dry conditions and slowly climbing temperatures are expected this week as a mean area of high pressure holds over the Desert Southwest.
Composite surface to upper-tropospheric analysis places a strong area of high pressure centered over northern New England, broad 500 mb ridging over the eastern half of the CONUS, and an inverted trough axis transecting Hispaniola. The sounding also sampled falling geopotential heights below 700 mb, consistent with the westward progression of the aforementioned inverted trough, along with quasisteady heights aloft.
421 AM CST Sun Dec 15 2024 - Widespread dense freezing fog will impact the area Sunday morning, leaving the potential for slick spots on surfaces.
234 PM CST Sun Dec 15 2024 - Above normal temps for both Mon and Tue with cooler readings Wed. At the surface lee troughing remains in place with return flow across the Southern Plains. Still looking for some showers and storms to develop just ahead of the trough over far southeast KS this evening, which will also be in an area of mid level moisture transport.
But coverage and intensity has waned as an upper-level trough moves north into the Great Lakes area. Satellite imagery this afternoon shows another trough beginning to take shape over the central Rockies. This trough will deepen into a closed low as it tracks northeast into Canada tonight and into Monday. As it does so, it sends another cold front eastward.
KEY MESSAGES: - Low probability of ice for the lowlands today, and higher probability of ice for the higher terrain. ------------------------------------------------------------------- Have removed several counties from the Winter Weather Advisory where road temperatures have risen above freezing. The highest probability for freezing rain the remainder of the day will be along the ridges as warmer air to the west drives eastward.
829 AM MST Sun Dec 15 2024 *MORNING UPDATE: Upgraded eastern zones to a Winter Storm Warning due to significant impacts observed from icing and several hours of freezing rain to come.
Monday will see subtle ridging aloft and slightly cooler temperatures in the wake of the front.
(Tonight) Broad upper ridging centered just to our west will continue to promote warm air advection overnight, with a broad warm sectored airmass stretching from Oklahoma through western KY. Will see about a 10 degree temperature gradient in overnight lows, with areas west of I-65 only falling to the low to mid 50s while areas east dip into the 40s.
Temperatures will fall to right around freezing or just below overnight before another day in the mid 30s to start the week. A cold front will push through Monday, but the majority of the precip associated with it will likely stay confined to northern Minnesota. Being that temperatures will be at or just above freezing, anything that does fall will likely be a rain/snow mix before transitioning to all snow.
A cold front will enter the CWA this evening, and surface winds will flow from the north through most of Monday.
232 PM CST Sun Dec 15 2024 Lingering afternoon showers will diminish as the evening progress as a cold front continues to weaken.
20 to 30 mph wind gusts remain in place through tomorrow for the higher elevations of the east TN, southwest VA, and southwest NC mountains. This means wind gusts from 20 to 30 mph are expected across the the higher elevations of the east TN, southwest VA, and southwest NC mountains through Monday. High temps on Monday in the lower 60s.
- Cooler mid to late week, with 30-40 percent chances for snow. Warm/moist advection will increase overnight ahead of a cold front, which will pass through the area tomorrow. Highs tomorrow will be in the low to mid 40s, with lows tomorrow night falling into the mid to upper 20s.
- Warmer and windy on Monday. Much of that area should stay at or above freezing so it should be of little consequence but something to monitor.
1245 PM CST Sun Dec 15 2024 (Today through Monday) Key Messages: - Well Above Normal Temperatures through Monday Zonal flow aloft will continue through Monday with onshore flow at the lower levels. The continued onshore flow will continue to advect a warmer airmass leading to well above normal temperatures (highs 10- 12 with lows 15-20 degrees above normal) through Monday.
1143 AM CST Sun Dec 15 2024 - Widespread dense freezing fog will impact the area Sunday morning, leaving the potential for slick spots on surfaces.
This may bring some light precipitation to the area, mainly north of I-90, as well as help scour out the low clouds and fog.
(This evening through Monday) Zonal flow persist across the south central CONUS tonight and Monday as an upper low and associated trough translates eastward along the Canadian border. This trough's influence, albeit weak, will be just sufficient to drive an anemic cold front through the CWFA before washing out tomorrow afternoon to our south.
127 PM MST Sun Dec 15 2024 - Freezing fog possible this morning across Red Willow, Decatur, Norton and Graham counties. a backdoor cold front extends as far west as Red Willow to Norton and Graham counties early this morning. East of the front there is extensive low clouds and near dense freezing fog with visibilities generally 1/4-1/2 mile. Otherwise, a broad upper level trough moves through the area today and tonight. The low humidity and gusty winds will produce near critical fire weather conditions generally west of a line from Trenton to Goodland and Burlington. Tonight, a clear sky is expected with low temperatures in the lower to upper 20s. It will be sunny to mostly sunny but cooler with high temperatures in the lower 40s to lower 50s.
A ridge of high pressure today will give way to a weak disturbance pushing across the northern Great Basin on Monday which will provide some increased cloud cover area wide and also enhance the winds in the lee of the Sierra. High pressure will build back in by midweek and provide dry conditions and temperatures 6 to 10 degrees above their seasonal norms for the rest of the week.
Water vapor imagery this afternoon shows an upper low positioned over the southern Great Lakes Region with another trough in the Northern Plains. However, a warm front will quickly lift north this evening and fill low stratus back in. Surface observations across eastern Iowa and far northeast Missouri show sporadic sub 1 mile visibilities, with the high resolution guidance showing some of this building into counties west of the Illinois River this evening. Precipitation chances increase late tonight into Monday morning as scattered rain showers develop in a wing of moisture transport ahead of a cold front.
240 PM CST Sun Dec 15 2024 - Warmer, above seasonal norms for mid December throughout the forecast.
Surface analyses this morning placed a pronounced high pressure system continuing to linger over Ontario while an inverted tropical tough was located over Hispaniola. In response, the trough over Hispaniola will sink south into the Caribbean.
232 PM CST Sun Dec 15 2024 - Gusty northwest winds develop tonight into Monday as a cold front crosses the area.
950 AM CST Sun Dec 15 2024 The upper low that produced the rainfall yesterday into last night is quickly shifting east. The associated weak cold front stretches from the OH Valley through Memphis into southern AR. Rain chances will remain minimal today but increase by tonight as a series of weak fronts move through the Lower Mississippi Valley through mid-week.
1002 AM MST Sun Dec 15 2024 - Upper level trough will continue to bring good chances for light rain, light freezing rain, and snow today into this evening from northeast WY to the northern Black Hills and northwest SD, with a trailing cool front bringing gusty west to northwest winds later today into Monday.
A weak cold front will stall just to the north and west of the area tomorrow morning, resulting in continued southerly low level flow with patchy fog, drizzle and low clouds redevloping toward sunrise.
1200 PM EST Sun Dec 15 2024 Strong high pressure across New England will slowly weaken as it gradually shifts offshore allowing for a warming trend into mid week.
1111 AM CST Sun Dec 15 2024 (Today through Monday) An upper trough will skirt east of our longitude today, resulting in decreasing lift and the slowing/degradation of an upstream surface front.
This evening, a modified cold front will move through.
With a warmer and more humid airmass continuing to advect into the region, daytime instability has continued to favor an increase in clouds, along with show quick-passing sprinkles and showers.
1209 PM CST Sun Dec 15 2024 DGX/GWX radars are showing ongoing scattered showers across the ArkLaMiss region as a cold front stalls to the northwest.
From synopsis, fresh to strong northeast to east winds will continue across the Florida Keys coastal waters through the rest of the weekend, as a large area of high pressure moves slowly eastward across the Eastern Seaboard. The high will shift into the western North Atlantic during the early work week, resulting in slowly slackening breezes.
1138 AM CST Sun Dec 15 2024 The upper low that produced the rainfall yesterday into last night is quickly shifting east. The associated weak cold front stretches from the OH Valley through Memphis into southern AR. Rain chances will remain minimal today but increase by tonight as a series of weak fronts move through the Lower Mississippi Valley through mid-week.
333 PM EST Sun Dec 15 2024 High pressure off to the northeast will push farther offshore the next couple days as a weak coastal trough remains off the Carolina coast.
1156 AM CST Sun Dec 15 2024 Updated aviation portion for 18Z TAF issuance - Hazardous travel due to light freezing rain is expected this morning for areas north of Highway 29.
DGX/GWX radars are showing ongoing scattered showers across the ArkLaMiss region as a cold front stalls to the northwest.
This may bring some sprinkles and flurries to the area in addition to scouring out the low clouds and fog.
Later on Sunday, the remnants of the already weak cold front will pass through the forecast area and marginally decrease temperatures. Lows tonight will be more of the same with widespread at or below freezing with accompanying light winds.
Temperatures will manage to drop a degree or two with a few breaks in the cloud cover Monday night, converging with dew points in the lower 60s.
Gusts from 35 to 50 mph will occur across the plains with the highest gusts near the Wyoming border.
508 PM CST Sun Dec 15 2024 - Above normal temps for both Mon and Tue with cooler readings Wed. At the surface lee troughing remains in place with return flow across the Southern Plains. Still looking for some showers and storms to develop just ahead of the trough over far southeast KS this evening, which will also be in an area of mid level moisture transport.
A fast moving ridge will move east of the area tonight, allowing for a Pacific storm system to push into the Pacific Northwest.
So, why so warm? Upper level ridging is taking shape across the northern Gulf. Outside of this and perhaps a few streamer showers developing in the low level fetch over the Gulf, the only other mentionable item would be fog potential.
(This evening through Monday) Chilly temperatures, patches of low clouds and fog continue over the North Bay, however the afternoon sun is helping to steadily dissipate the low clouds and fog. Lows tonight and Monday morning in the 40s except in the mid to upper 30s inland valleys, and as cold as the lower 30s southern interior of Monterey county and San Benito county with patchy frost forming. There may also be localized black ice forming on roadways tonight and Monday morning in the southern interior, especially on bridges since bridges usually easily cool to surrounding air temperatures.
(Now through Monday night) Weak ridging across the region tonight into early Monday drifts east by Monday night, with a more southwesterly upper flow developing over the area. The low level flow has brought dewpoints across the area back up into the 60s, and the associated moisture has resulted in fairly widespread low level cloudiness across most of the region today, and even a few coastal showers (although not enough to warrant a PoP). Lows tonight and again on Monday night will generally be in the low to mid 50s over inland areas and mid to upper 50s closer to and along the coast. Highs on Monday should be a little warmer than today, rising in most areas into the lower 70s (although a few locations could be like today and remain in the mid to upper 60s).
542 PM CST Sun Dec 15 2024 (Tonight) Broad upper ridging centered just to our west will continue to promote warm air advection overnight, with a broad warm sectored airmass stretching from Oklahoma through western KY. Will see about a 10 degree temperature gradient in overnight lows, with areas west of I-65 only falling to the low to mid 50s while areas east dip into the 40s.
The significant precipitation will stay across western KY and the lower Ohio Valley so only very light rainfall amounts possible. 20 to 30 mph wind gusts remain in place through tomorrow for the higher elevations of the east TN, southwest VA, and southwest NC mountains. This means wind gusts from 20 to 30 mph are expected across the the higher elevations of the east TN, southwest VA, and southwest NC mountains through Monday. High temps on Monday in the lower 60s.
A weak cold front will stall just to the north and west of the area tomorrow morning, resulting in continued southerly low level flow with patchy fog, drizzle and low clouds redeveloping toward sunrise.
Deubelbeiss Water vapor imagery this afternoon shows an upper low positioned over the southern Great Lakes Region with another trough in the Northern Plains. However, a warm front will quickly lift north this evening and fill low stratus back in. Surface observations across eastern Iowa and far northeast Missouri show sporadic sub 1 mile visibilities, with the high resolution guidance showing some of this building into counties west of the Illinois River this evening. Precipitation chances increase late tonight into Monday morning as scattered rain showers develop in a wing of moisture transport ahead of a cold front.
- Breezy conditions today with gusts of 25-45 mph across the region, strongest in the west and over the higher hills of southeastern Montana.
This is invof a weak and increasingly diffuse frontal boundary that will continue to slowly lift back northward as a warm front this evening. As a result, convection will also spread deeper into the region with the highest rain chances still mostly confined to our NW half. Much like the previous frontal boundary, this cold front will also pull up stationary and slowly retreat back northward by later on Monday night.
936 PM EST Sun Dec 15 2024 High pressure off to the northeast will push farther offshore the next couple days as a weak coastal trough remains off the Carolina coast.
A ridge of high pressure today will give way to a weak disturbance pushing across the northern Great Basin on Monday which will provide some increased cloud cover area wide and also enhance the winds in the lee of the Sierra. High pressure will build back in by midweek and provide dry conditions and temperatures 6 to 10 degrees above their seasonal norms for the rest of the week. Today's high temperatures were several degrees above normal, which included highs in the low to mid 60s in the Las Vegas area. Low temperatures should be near average for this time of year, which means temperatures in the low 40s in Las Vegas.
629 PM EST Sun Dec 15 2024 High pressure off to the northeast will push farther offshore the next couple days as a weak coastal trough remains off the Carolina coast.
High pressure surface and aloft will hold over the region for the next few days with temperatures continuing to run 5 to 10 degrees above climatic normals. With a warmer and more humid airmass continuing to advect into the region, daytime instability has continued to favor an increase in clouds, along with show quick-passing sprinkles and showers.
540 PM CST Sun Dec 15 2024 - Gusty northwest winds develop tonight into Monday as a cold front crosses the area.
611 PM CST Sun Dec 15 2024 Lingering afternoon showers will diminish as the evening progress as a cold front continues to weaken.
549 PM CST Sun Dec 15 2024 - Warmer, above seasonal norms for mid December throughout the forecast.
Otherwise, a warmer than normal night is expected with morning lows in the mid 50s to the lower 60s. /22/ Lingering afternoon showers will diminish as the evening progress as a cold front continues to weaken.
319 AM EST Mon Dec 16 2024 High pressure off to the northeast will push farther offshore the next couple days as a weak coastal trough remains off the Carolina coast.
1144 PM CST Sun Dec 15 2024 - Gusty northwest winds develop tonight into Monday as a cold front crosses the area.
Temperatures have fallen into the low to mid 60s and aren't expected to fall much further before early morning.
Sarment (This evening through Monday) Chilly temperatures, patches of low clouds and fog continue over the North Bay, however the afternoon sun is helping to steadily dissipate the low clouds and fog. Lows tonight and Monday morning in the 40s except in the mid to upper 30s inland valleys, and as cold as the lower 30s southern interior of Monterey county and San Benito county with patchy frost forming. There may also be localized black ice forming on roadways tonight and Monday morning in the southern interior, especially on bridges since bridges usually easily cool to surrounding air temperatures.
1153 PM CST Sun Dec 15 2024 - Warmer, above seasonal norms for mid December throughout the forecast.
125 AM EST Mon Dec 16 2024 More rain Monday and Monday night as a weak cold front crosses the area. Another band of rain will push northward across the area today as a cold front approaches from the west. A weak cold front will then push through the region tonight, bringing additional showers. The cold front is weak enough that temperatures should remain above freezing tonight for all areas.
(Today and tonight) An upper level trough moving eastward across the northern Plains to the northern Mississippi Valley today is pushing a cold front southward down the southern High Plains today. Temperatures should run about ten degrees cooler than yesterday's very warm readings which still leaves this afternoon's highs about 5 to 7 degrees warmer than climatology.
1236 AM EST Mon Dec 16 2024 High pressure off to the northeast will push farther offshore the next couple days as a weak coastal trough remains off the Carolina coast.
- Temperatures peak today with highs in the low 50s to low 60s. Highs today will be the warmest of the week, being primarily in the low 50s to low 60s. A cold front will pass through late this afternoon, dropping temperatures for the rest of the week. Lows tonight drop into the low 30s.
The low clouds and perhaps patchy drizzle will persist through the day. A cold front will drop southeast into western KY through AR late this afternoon with a few showers entering our northwest counties. High temperatures will reach the lower to middle 60s.
These winds will eventually go light and variable by this afternoon and tonight as a high pressure center builds over western Kansas.