Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
- Much colder temperatures arrive Sunday, then much warmer by midweek. Mixing out of the low level inversion will make freezing rain unlikely for the rest of the event, but any wet or slushy surfaces have a high risk of experiencing a flash freeze tonight. With northwest winds gusting up to 50 mph today, upslope into the Big Sheeps and the higher terrain east of the Musselshell River will enhance snow accumulations and bring blowing snow concerns. A secondary cold front will precede the Arctic high pressure tonight, pushing the snow to the southwest and usher much colder air into the region for Sunday.
High pressure will then build in this afternoon and pass off to the east on Sunday.
Sunshine will increase today as high pressure prevails across the area. Refrozen snowmelt may result in slick roads for the next several nights as temperatures fall below freezing.
The trough currently digging across the NW CONUS is expected to pick up the trough currently hanging out over the Baja region of Mexico during the day on Sunday. The Baja trough is expected to promote surface cyclogenesis across the NW Gulf by Sunday evening. The guidance has been trending slightly farther north with this low, bringing in higher rain chances across much of the area Sunday evening and into the overnight hours.
735 AM EST Sat Jan 11 2025 Widespread snow will transition to scattered snow showers this morning as a cold front crosses the area.
Uncertainty remains high in regards to the exact locations the may receive freezing rain with this event. Areas south of highway 50 show the best chances of getting above freezing in the afternoon hours today and tomorrow.
- Warmer temperatures are back in play Saturday and Sunday but still below normal.
455 AM CST Sat Jan 11 2025 Updated at 452 AM CST Sat Jan 11 2025 - Breezy and much warmer on Saturday. Upper flow will become more zonal by late morning as another upper trough amplifies across the western CONUS and weak upper ridging sets up over the Mississippi/Ohio River Valleys. This next upper trough will push a cold front southward into our northern zones by sunset, with the front being south of the FA by midnight. The cold front will have little affect on at least tonight's temperatures as overnight lows will actually be warmer than this morning's lows, low 20s to low 30s.
414 AM CST Sat Jan 11 2025 - Light snow today into Sunday morning, greatest accumulations across far NW Sandhills - Warmer temperatures today, with warmest highs across southwest Nebraska - A cold front will move through late Saturday, bringing cooler temperatures on Sunday As the system approaches the area this morning, light snow will be possible across the NW Sandhills. Temperatures will warm across the southern Sandhills to north central Nebraska and southward into the 30s to low 40s, with the low 40s generally across southwest Nebraska.
(Today through Sunday Night) Early morning temperatures across the Brazos Valley/Piney Woods area sit just under the freezing mark with dewpoints in the upper 20s. Cannot rule out some isolated freezing fog across the northern reaches of the Brazos Valley/Piney Woods area. Utilized the NAM and some manual edits to sketch out which areas are "most likely" to see freezing fog, if any at all. Rain chances taper off Sunday evening as the coastal trough pushes off to the east. Around this time, the aforementioned slog of cooler air pushes into the Brazos valley as a very weak cold front.
651 AM EST Sat Jan 11 2025 Low pressure centered well to our southwest will track northeastward tonight, resulting in light snow overspreading the area. As the low pressure pushes offshore of the Mid-Atlantic coast early Saturday morning, high pressure begins to build toward our area later Saturday.
606 AM CST Sat Jan 11 2025 Sunshine will increase today as high pressure prevails across the area. Refrozen snowmelt may result in slick roads for the next several nights as temperatures fall below freezing.
(Now through Sunday) An upper level trough will move through the region today, with flow aloft becoming more zonal. Temperatures will be on the cooler side, with CAA and cloud cover limiting daytime heating. Skies will become clear tonight and winds will diminish, allowing temperatures to plummet into the lower 20s across our interior areas to lower 30s along the coast. A trough will begin to dig into the Plains on Sunday, with weak ridging building along the Atlantic Coast.
(Today through Sunday) Most of the freezing precip has come to an end as of the construction of this AFD.
Precip could fall as light rain, freezing rain, and/or snow. The best chances of light freezing rain will be in southeast NE & southwest IA.
- Temperatures below freezing during nighttime hours next few nights will re-freeze any melted snow, resulting in continued hazardous travel on secondary roads. Snow showers may still add a little to accumulations for the higher elevations as a trough axis moves across the area. These sub-freezing temps will cause areas of leftover slush to freeze, especially in untreated areas, so hazardous travel should be anticipated this morning. Some areas will not reach freezing, but daytime radiation through the clouds will result in some snow melting and road improvement. Along with that, there will be some patches of freezing fog overnight that may add a thin glaze to surfaces. Sunday will be a big melt day with sunshine developing and highs in the lower 40s for most areas.
641 AM CST Sat Jan 11 2025 (Today through Sunday) Key Messages: - Lingering moisture frozen on roads where temperatures are below freezing will continue to create impacts in the form of black ice. This risk will impact travel early this morning through mid-morning until temperatures across Central Alabama go above freezing and roads have time for ice to melt. Surface ridging will build across ERN Conus behind a front.
616 AM EST Sat Jan 11 2025 High pressure will shift into the Southeast bringing cold, dry air into the forecast area this weekend. Temps at most locations are above freezing so any remaining ice should begin to melt during the morning hours. This typically favors temperatures cooler than model guidance. Lows in the low 20s are likely with teens possible for some areas.
508 AM CST Sat Jan 11 2025 - Brief round of scattered rain, snow, and freezing rain this evening.
(Today through Sunday) Key Messages: - Lingering moisture frozen on roads where temperatures are below freezing will continue to create impacts in the form of black ice. This risk will impact travel early this morning through mid-morning until temperatures across Central Alabama go above freezing and roads have time for ice to melt. Surface ridging will build across ERN Conus behind a front.
(Tonight through Sunday night) - Sightly warmer temperatures tonight and Sunday. - A weak cold front on Sunday with a low chance (20-30%) of showers across the Coastal Plains, dry elsewhere. Lows in the low to mid 30s are forecast, with upper 20s in valleys of the Hill Country. A cold front is forecast to move through the region on Sunday. However, a few global and HREF ensemble members are generating some rain Sunday afternoon across the Coastal Plains as weak isentropic ascent north of the low develops. The cold front will re- enforce cool temperatures over the region Sunday night. However, wind speeds will remain elevated for many locations through the night, and some locations might actually experience slightly warmer temperatures but colder wind chills than tonight.
Rather, concerns tonight will be more focused on the re-freeze potential as latest observations are seeing multiple locations reach into the 40s today with expectations of the cold front and present snow pack keeping lows tonight in the teens and 20s.
Dense Fog Advisory in the Lower Treasure Valley was extended until 11 am MST as the fog has been stubborn to dissipate.
Patchy, black ice is our primary concern (especially on secondary roads, bridges, and overpasses).
Winds will trend slightly higher Sunday night as a thermal trough strengthens.
With highs today nosing above freezing for all but the terrain of NW/NE Georgia, our main concern will be any snowmelt that occurs today refreezing and making for a tricky commute in the morning. Additionally, as a side effect of clearing skies, slackening winds, and increased moisture associated with our snowpack (first time using that word in a discussion of Georgia for this forecaster), we may see the development of patchy freezing fog around daybreak Sunday.
(Rest of today through Sunday) Cold front will finish crossing South FL by mid to late afternoon, with scattered showers expected along and ahead of the front and some light drizzle for an hour or so behind the front. With cooler and drier air starting to filter into the area, overnight lows will be chilly ranging from the middle 40s in the lake region, to mid and upper 50s across SE FL. High pressure centered over the Southern Appalachians will be in control on Sunday. Slightly below normal temps are expected with afternoon highs in the lower 70s north of Alligator Alley to middle 70s over the far southern portion of the peninsula.
1123 AM CST Sat Jan 11 2025 Updated at 1119 AM CST Sat Jan 11 2025 - Breezy and much warmer today. Upper flow will become more zonal by late morning as another upper trough amplifies across the western CONUS and weak upper ridging sets up over the Mississippi/Ohio River Valleys. This next upper trough will push a cold front southward into our northern zones by sunset, with the front being south of the FA by midnight. The cold front will have little affect on at least tonight's temperatures as overnight lows will actually be warmer than this morning's lows, low 20s to low 30s.
1142 AM CST Sat Jan 11 2025 (Today through Sunday Night) Early morning temperatures across the Brazos Valley/Piney Woods area sit just under the freezing mark with dewpoints in the upper 20s. Cannot rule out some isolated freezing fog across the northern reaches of the Brazos Valley/Piney Woods area. Utilized the NAM and some manual edits to sketch out which areas are "most likely" to see freezing fog, if any at all. Rain chances taper off Sunday evening as the coastal trough pushes off to the east. Around this time, the aforementioned slog of cooler air pushes into the Brazos valley as a very weak cold front.
1142 AM CST Sat Jan 11 2025 Sunshine will increase today as high pressure prevails across the area. Refrozen snowmelt may result in slick roads for the next several nights as temperatures fall below freezing.
1136 AM EST Sat Jan 11 2025 High pressure begins to build toward our area later today.
An upper-level low over New England is propagating ENE while weak ridging through the Great Lakes and Ohio River Valley is being eroded by another trough in the four corners region. In association with the low over New England, an attendant cold front pushed through the region this morning. A NW wind has settled in behind this front, advecting a cooler and drier airmass over Florida.
(Tonight through Sunday night) Key Message: - A weak cold front on Sunday brings a low to medium chance (20-60%) of showers across the Coastal Bend and Victoria Crossroads. Consequently, overnight low temperatures Sunday morning are expected to be slightly warmer, ranging from the upper 30s to the mid-40s. Temperatures on Sunday are anticipated to be slightly warmer than today due to weak WAA ahead of the low pressure system. Inland areas will reach the low to mid 60s, while the mid to upper 50s are more likely closer to the coast, where increased cloud cover and higher rain chances will persist. Behind the system's associated cold front, a chilly night is expected Sunday night, with low temperatures dropping into the mid to upper 30s to the low 40s.
In addition to very cold temperatures, there is also a low-medium chance of freezing fog forming this evening into the overnight hours. If freezing fog occurs, this will contribute to an already- existing threat of black ice on roadways (especially elevated surfaces such as bridges and overpasses) as well as outdoor surfaces such as building entrances/home porches.
1255 PM EST Sat Jan 11 2025 Widespread snow will transition to scattered snow showers this morning as a cold front crosses the area.
1145 AM CST Sat Jan 11 2025 - Brief round of scattered rain, snow, and freezing rain this evening.
Shortly after sunset, the area should drop down below freezing, with low temperatures Saturday morning in the upper teens in the north and lower 20s in the south. Sunday, low and mid level winds will transition to out of the southwest by the afternoon, bringing warmer air and more moisture to the southwestern counties. High temperatures will be in the low 40s in the north and the low 50s in the south, still several degrees below normal for this time of year.
Updated at 234 PM CST Sat Jan 11 2025 - A cold front moves through late tonight/early Sunday morning, keeping highs below normal Sunday. While this is occurring, this pushes another cold front south through the southern Great Plains, bringing a reinforcing shot of cold, arctic air to the region. Ahead of the aforementioned trough, this afternoon's temperatures warm up nearly 10 degrees over yesterday. With the cold front tonight, frigid temperatures remain in the forecast during the morning hours. Below freezing temperatures from the mid 20s and low 30s can be expected for almost everyone to start on Sunday. The frigid morning and cold front translate into a colder afternoon as temperatures fall back below normal once again.
1109 AM EST Sat Jan 11 2025 Widespread snow will transition to scattered snow showers this morning as a cold front crosses the area.
226 PM EST Sat Jan 11 2025 Snow will taper off through this evening, with dry weather expected Sunday under high pressure.
This clipper is associated with broad upper-level troughing that will remain in place through at least the day Sunday. The associated low pressure system should keep the bulk of the moisture and large-scale forcing north of our region, but a weak cold front extending southward from the low will help support increasing chances (40-70%) of light snow this evening through Sunday morning. After midnight tonight, HREF ensemble soundings indicate a lose of ice crystals aloft associated with a mid-level dry slot, which could lead to a low chance (20%) of freezing drizzle as we will remain saturated in the lower levels, so some light icing isn't out of the question. Highs should warm to the lower to middle 30s.
A dry cold front will move through Sunday night and knock temperatures back down to below normal.
The exception has been Jonesboro, Arkansas, where a pesky patch of low stratus and light freezing fog has moved in this morning. Satellite trends show the area thinning, suggesting that temperatures will still be on track to break the freezing mark by late afternoon. Elsewhere, temperatures have climbed to or above the freezing mark. A decent amount of melting will occur through late afternoon before temperatures fall back below freezing tonight. There is some concern about refreezing of snowmelt on the roads and also a threat of freezing fog. AC3 Sunshine will increase today as high pressure prevails across the area. Refrozen snowmelt may result in slick roads for the next several nights as temperatures fall below freezing.
1200 PM CST Sat Jan 11 2025 - A blast of arctic cold air is coming with a cold front's passage Sunday night.
Despite weak cold advection in the boundary layer, the surface temperatures remain significantly above freezing for any p-type to be rain. Almost a due north wind remains intact though the evening and overnight, where little if any gusts are expected in the east, but better opportunity for late afternoon gusts to around 20 knots on the higher elevations like Liberal and Elkhart also diminish by sundown. Full insolation is expected Sunday with neutral temperature advection setting up â colder air over Hays but climbing into the low 40s southwest under light north winds. However by mid week, the upper pattern transitions away from a strongly positively tilted trough into more of a spilt flow pattern across the CONUS.
1216 PM EST Sat Jan 11 2025 Widespread snow will transition to scattered snow showers this morning as a cold front crosses the area.
248 PM CST Sat Jan 11 2025 - A blast of arctic cold air is coming with a cold front's passage Sunday night.
359 PM EST Sat Jan 11 2025 Low pressure will pass well south of the area today into tonight followed by high pressure Sunday into Sunday night.
113 PM EST Sat Jan 11 2025 High pressure will build into the region this afternoon, and then it will pass off to the east on Sunday.
1132 AM CST Sat Jan 11 2025 - Light snow today into Sunday morning, greatest accumulations across far NW Sandhills - Warmer temperatures today, with warmest highs across southwest Nebraska - A cold front will move through late Saturday, bringing cooler temperatures on Sunday As the system approaches the area this morning, light snow will be possible across the NW Sandhills. Temperatures will warm across the southern Sandhills to north central Nebraska and southward into the 30s to low 40s, with the low 40s generally across southwest Nebraska.
Updated at 150 PM CST Sat Jan 11 2025 - Chilly again tonight behind an evening cold front, much cooler and still breezy on Sunday. (This evening through Sunday) Quite an impressive gradient in temperatures early this afternoon with 1 PM temperatures in the low 40s across the snow-covered SW TX Panhandle, with upper 50s in the snow-free zones further south and east courtesy of warm downslope breezes. Low level cloud cover will increase behind the above-mentioned cold front, and moisture in the 850-700mb layer may be just deep enough to support a few snow flurries overnight across the SW TX Panhandle, although no impacts are expected.
1008 AM EST Sat Jan 11 2025 High pressure will build into the region this afternoon, and then it will pass off to the east on Sunday.
- Patchy freezing fog late tonight into early Sunday across the eastern third of the area. Given the recent snowfall, ambient temperatures preceding the frontal passage should be near or slightly above freezing.
High pressure centered across the Tennessee Valley will drift across the area through Sunday.
(This evening through Sunday Night) Temperatures will be chilly once again across the region, with lows ranging from the mid to upper 20s across our northern and eastern zones to the lower 30s elsewhere. The HRRR, which had a really good handle on the fog development last night, is hinting once again that there could be some patchy freezing fog again tonight across our far northern zones. At the same time, a cold front will advance through our region from the north, bringing with it some reinforcing cool air. This will help temperatures drop to below freezing for most areas along and north of I-20 and then the mid to upper 30s for areas south of this point for Sunday night.
The main item of interest to discuss this morning is the cold front which is currently moving across the offshore Gulf waters. GOES 16 Visible satellite imagery shows mostly sunny conditions ahead of the front with cloud cover quickly approaching the Lower Keys. The cold front will continue to progress to the east to southeast through the remainder of the morning and into the early to mid afternoon. Based on the above, the Lower Keys seem to have the best chance to see any shower activity but we will see just how well this band of showers holds together. From synopsis, a cold front approaching from the northwest will clock winds around to the west and northwest through this afternoon.
Temperatures near freezing should minimize impacts with concern mainly for glazing on elevated and untreated surfaces.
534 PM CST Sat Jan 11 2025 - A blast of arctic cold air is coming with a cold front's passage Sunday night.
Cooler but quieter weather is expected tomorrow as we wrap up the weekend, as northwesterly flow aloft prevails.
611 PM EST Sat Jan 11 2025 (Rest of today through Sunday) Cold front will finish crossing South FL by mid to late afternoon, with scattered showers expected along and ahead of the front and some light drizzle for an hour or so behind the front. With cooler and drier air starting to filter into the area, overnight lows will be chilly ranging from the middle 40s in the lake region, to mid and upper 50s across SE FL. High pressure centered over the Southern Appalachians will be in control on Sunday. Slightly below normal temps are expected with afternoon highs in the lower 70s north of Alligator Alley to middle 70s over the far southern portion of the peninsula.
520 PM CST Sat Jan 11 2025 Through Sunday: Building ridge and high pressure will lock in dry air over the area through most of the short term period. Areas to the southwest will see surface winds back from the south overnight and increasing cloud cover may keep low temperatures slightly warmer there.
Radar returns are generally unimpressive but there is likely some light snow continuing to fall across the higher terrain of the eastern and southeastern highlands. Upper level flow will remain northerly into the day tomorrow keeping things on the cooler side of normal with daytime highs likely to remain below freezing throughout the forecast area.
508 PM CST Sat Jan 11 2025 (This evening through Sunday Night) Temperatures will be chilly once again across the region, with lows ranging from the mid to upper 20s across our northern and eastern zones to the lower 30s elsewhere. The HRRR, which had a really good handle on the fog development last night, is hinting once again that there could be some patchy freezing fog again tonight across our far northern zones. At the same time, a cold front will advance through our region from the north, bringing with it some reinforcing cool air. This will help temperatures drop to below freezing for most areas along and north of I-20 and then the mid to upper 30s for areas south of this point for Sunday night.
521 PM CST Sat Jan 11 2025 (Tonight through Sunday night) - Sightly warmer temperatures tonight and Sunday. - A weak cold front on Sunday with a low chance (20-30%) of showers across the Coastal Plains, dry elsewhere. Lows in the low to mid 30s are forecast, with upper 20s in valleys of the Hill Country. A cold front is forecast to move through the region on Sunday. However, a few global and HREF ensemble members are generating some rain Sunday afternoon across the Coastal Plains as weak isentropic ascent north of the low develops. The cold front will re- enforce cool temperatures over the region Sunday night. However, wind speeds will remain elevated for many locations through the night, and some locations might actually experience slightly warmer temperatures but colder wind chills than tonight.
- Patchy freezing fog late tonight into early Sunday across the eastern third of the area. freezing rain/drizzle (depending on the surface temperatures) than rain vs. Given the recent snowfall, ambient temperatures preceding the frontal passage should be near or slightly above freezing.
933 PM EST Sat Jan 11 2025 Low pressure well offshore continues to track east overnight as high pressure slowly builds from the west. The high will settle over the area Sunday into Sunday night.
550 PM CST Sat Jan 11 2025 (Tonight through Sunday night) Key Message: - A weak cold front on Sunday brings a low to medium chance (20-60%) of showers across the Coastal Bend and Victoria Crossroads. Consequently, overnight low temperatures Sunday morning are expected to be slightly warmer, ranging from the upper 30s to the mid-40s. Temperatures on Sunday are anticipated to be slightly warmer than today due to weak WAA ahead of the low pressure system. Inland areas will reach the low to mid 60s, while the mid to upper 50s are more likely closer to the coast, where increased cloud cover and higher rain chances will persist. Behind the system's associated cold front, a chilly night is expected Sunday night, with low temperatures dropping into the mid to upper 30s to the low 40s.
626 PM EST Sat Jan 11 2025 Low pressure will pass well south of the area tonight followed by high pressure Sunday into Sunday night.