Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
This ridge will bring not only dry conditions, but also a much colder airmass into the region. Cold air advection on the leading edge of the ridge will usher in 850 mb temperatures in the -6 to -10 C range across central and western Nebraska. This will result in surface temperatures ranging from the low 30s in north central Nebraska to the mid 40s in southwest Nebraska today.
249 AM PST Sun Nov 9 2025 Drier and warmer conditions will remain into Sunday as high pressure builds overhead. High clouds continue overhead as an upper-ridge progresses across the PNW.
548 AM CST Sun Nov 9 2025 - Below freezing temperatures are expected Sunday and Monday morning with a Freeze Warning in place for the Southeastern Panhandles Monday morning.
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: High pressure will drop into the northern plains today keeping temperatures cold.
MIDOT webcams indicate that roads are wet and RWIS data show road surface temperatures in the lower to mid 30s areawide. Air temperatures will be dropping into the low 20s around the time this occurs, so accumulating snow on roadways seems plausible. Newest guidance, including the 09/06Z HRRR, indicates a second round of LES Monday into Monday night setting up over southwest Lower MI in response to an upper PV lobe trailing the main upper low.
Highs Monday will range from the low 30s across north-central Pennsylvania to the upper 40s in the Lower Susq Valley, which is 10-20 degrees below average for this time of year. A preview of Deep upper-level troughing over the Eastern United States will result in continued cold temperatures into midweek, with a favorable NWerly flow pattern setup for the first widespread lake effect and orographically enhanced snow accumulation of the season.
626 AM EST Sun Nov 9 2025 Low pressure tracking through the Great Lakes will bring showers through Sunday.
With this pattern and yesterday's snowfall, leaned on some of the cooler guidance and toward the 25th percentile for highs today. We'll see a weak short wave with some WAA, which with the return of southerly surface flow and a bit more sunshine, should lead to a slightly warmer day.
408 AM CST Sun Nov 9 2025 - Dense fog early this morning will dissipate with the cold front passage.
516 AM CST Sun Nov 9 2025 Updated at 511 AM CST Sun Nov 9 2025 - Significantly colder temperatures behind a strong cold front Sunday through Monday. (Sunday) A strong cold front has entered northeast Oklahoma late this evening and will continue south across the rest of the forecast area overnight. Afternoon high temperatures will mostly be in the lower 40s to lower 50s.
214 AM MST Sun Nov 9 2025 - Cooler than normal temperatures are expected for today, with breezy northerly winds on our eastern plains.
With high pressure increasing today, warmer temperatures are expected across the area. Northern Lake and Klamath counties may stay slightly cooler, with temperatures in the low to mid 60s. On Monday, deterministic imagery shows a front meeting the ridge then passing over. While this front will weaken with that meeting and not directly impact the area, its passage will flatten the ridge and bring a more zonal flow pattern to start the week.
Ridge builds over the western half of the US through Sunday as eastern CONUS deepens. Temperatures will continue warm through the first half of the week as the ridge builds. Looking into the end of the week, the next chances for precip and a cool down will be Fri/Sat as an upper trof moves into the western CONUS.
High pressure will bring mostly clear, dry, and warmer than normal conditions much of the week.
520 AM CST Sun Nov 9 2025 Updated at 519 AM CST Sun Nov 9 2025 - Much cooler and still a bit breezy today, with sub-freezing temperatures expected across the entire forecast area tonight. - Cooler temperatures continue Monday, then generally warm and dry conditions through the end of the week. (Today and tonight) The synoptic pattern remains characterized by an impressive upper level trough axis which spans from the Hudson Bay all the way southward into the Gulf Coast states, with a smaller-amplitude upper ridge in place over the Great Basin. North winds will remain on the breezy side through most of today before finally becoming light this evening as the center of expansive surface ridging positions close by.
A Coastal Flood Statement remains in effect for the Lower and Middle Keys. -A significant cold front will blast through the Florida Keys on Monday. This will result in much cooler temperatures along with windy conditions developing on Monday. The short term forecast calls for one more day of lighter winds with humid and warm conditions before a potent cold front sweeps through at the start of the week. It will then shift east into the western North Atlantic leaving us in a col region ahead of a deep layer trough diving through the Ohio River Valley towards southeast CONUS. The previously mentioned deep layer trough will surge into the southeast US with an associated surface cold front blasting through the Gulf and into our area.
529 AM CST Sun Nov 9 2025 - Gusty north-northeast winds and much cooler temperatures are expected today in the wake of a strong cold frontal passage.
759 AM EST Sun Nov 9 2025 Low pressure tracking through the Great Lakes will bring rain showers today.
Because of the cold upper low over Illinois, clouds will persist through the day and be slow to break up tonight.
525 AM CST Sun Nov 9 2025 - Dense fog early this morning will dissipate with the cold front passage.
517 AM CST Sun Nov 9 2025 - A sharp Canadian cold front moving through this morning will bring unseasonably cold temperatures into the new week. - Strong gradient winds from surging high pressure has resulted in a wind advisory over lower southeast Texas and south Central Louisiana today with a Gale Warning offshore in place through tonight.
High pressure remains in place leading to unseasonably warm and dry conditions through Monday (and beyond). High pressure remains in control of the weather through at least mid week with dry conditions and warm, above normal temperatures dominating the forecast.
Satellite and radar imagery this afternoon shows scattered showers/thunderstorms developing across the WA Columbia Basin and isolated cells developing over the higher terrain of the north east OR, including the Grande Ronde Valley. These storms are the result of an upper trough passing over the PacNW today, with thunderstorms developing under favorable conditions, as the exit region of an upper jet wrapping around the trough is currently co-located over these storms. Through Tonight: The upper trough will continue to move across the PacNW today, resulting in showers and thunderstorms to continue to develop into the early evening hours. Otherwise, the upper trough passage will result in breezy conditions through the Cascade Gaps into the Columbia Basin through this evening.
The center of an upper level trough will move east across Washington into the Idaho Panhandle today. Showers and thunderstorms will increase near the low center this afternoon and early evening which will impact our northern areas, mainly north of a Baker City to Cascade to Stanley line. Elsewhere, it will be dry, but the trough will bring a 5 to 10 degree temperature drop from yesterday and breezy winds.
*Today-Friday: - Gradual warming and drying trend continues as Desert Southwest and East Pacific ridging amplifies.
Latest models trends have developed a weak upper low over NE GA and extreme western North and South Carolina late this morning into the afternoon hours. This will likely produce more concentrated shower and possibly scattered thunderstorm activity near this low and WSW along its trough axis during that time.
(This evening through Friday night) According to the latest RAP H500 analysis, broad high pressure remains in place with the center of the high across central New Mexico. These low level temperatures will lead to widespread highs of 100 degrees or slightly warmer for the Panhandles this afternoon.
While we have a more hot and humid air mass developing over the area, we lack any significant source of lift within the upper level ridge.
1231 PM CDT Thu Aug 7 2025 - Typical summer warmth and humidity will prevail into the weekend with the highest afternoon heat index values flirting with 100 F.
High Pressure Ridge finally taking shape over the West as Central California seeâs a return of Triple digits today. While a disturbance moving through the Pacific Northwest and Extreme Northern California, the ridge over the Southwest will now dictate temperature conditions over the area. So far, 24 hour change in temperatures continue to run 2 to 4 degree warmer and maintaining the warming trend.
Broad upper level trough and low-level northeasterly flow should be continuing tomorrow but deep-layer moisture should be a little higher across the area so rain chances should be a little higher. With the cooler northeasterly flow subsiding somewhat tomorrow and a little less stratus in the morning, we should be able to warm up a few degrees higher than this afternoon.
We still have upper level areas of high pressure around us with a relative low over us. This is a very typical summertime setup and the low pressure. Rain chances greater near the coast, high temps in the low 90s and feels like temps just over 100, and light, variable winds.
Widening our view, water vapour loop had southwest flow over the CWA in response to upper trough slipping southeast into the northwest CONUS from southwest Canada. Today through Friday, upper trough moves through the northern plains. Thermal ridge peaks pushing temperatures well into the 90s with some 100s from southwest into central SD likely (HREF >80% chance). Cold front will become focus for strong/severe convection Friday afternoon/evening, but with highest threat east of the CWA. Temperatures Friday will be tricky with cold front modulating readings, so confidence is lower. A cold front will move through the area tonight, with gusty northwest winds to 35 knots expected across the SD plains from 06Z through the remainder of the TAF period.
116 PM EDT Thu Aug 7 2025 * High pressure ridging southwest into PA from the New England States and Quebec Canada will maintain dry weather, seasonable temperatures and moderate humidity through the upcoming weekend.
pdf Frontal zone will sink a little south into north central FL through Tonight, as high pressure builds to the north. Lows will range from the lower 70s inland to the mid 70s coast.
1046 AM PDT Thu Aug 7 2025 - Cooler with showers and thunderstorms for Thursday. The next system is expected mid morning on Thursday, bringing showers and thunderstorms and cooler temperatures, with highs mainly in the 70s.
The high pressure ridge centered over West Texas/New Mexico will continue to dominate the weather pattern across Southeast TX, suppressing widespread rain and storms. As we head into the weekend, the high-pressure ridge is forecast to shift westward. This shift will lead to some weaknesses in the mid to upper-level pattern (trough).
203 PM MDT Thu Aug 7 2025 - Breezy Today With Isolated Storms North and East - Critical Fire Weather Conditions Today Due to Wind & Humidity - Much Cooler Temperatures Tomorrow As an area of low pressure moves eastward through eastern Washington state, northern Idaho, and Montana an associated cold front will swing through Eastern Idaho later this evening/tonight. While this cold front won't bring much precipitation, it will at least bring some relief from the heat. Highs today will be in the mid to upper 80s in our valley locations and we will be about 5 to 10 degrees cooler on Friday, meaning highs for many in the mid to upper 70s and a few low 80s.
218 PM EDT Thu Aug 7 2025 A front will linger south of the area this week, while high pressure remains centered well to the north. Low pressure could develop off the Southeast U. Mid level trough will settle over the Carolinas through tonight. The primary surface feature will be a wedge of high pressure holding strong over the region. To the east, a broad trough or spot low is expected to remain over the Gulf Stream or east. High temperatures are forecast to warm slightly warmer than observed on Thursday, generally in the mid 80s. Given the weak instability and elevated freezing level, the forecast will indicate SCHC for thunderstorms.
The strongest lift connected with the upper level low pressure system over eastern Washington and north-central Idaho will track across western Montana by this evening. Looking upstream at the Quillayute, Washington weather balloon sounding from 6 am MDT this morning, the freezing level was pretty low around 7,000 feet MSL. As the low pressure system moves into central Montana by midnight tonight, wrap-around moderate rain showers with embedded thunder will be possible across west-cetnral and northwest Montana overnight.
The broad upper level ridges both to our west and to our northeast continue to dominate the pattern.
307 PM EDT Thu Aug 7 2025 High pressure slowly slides to the south and east of Maine through Friday night.
- Showers and isolated thunderstorms continue through Friday, with cooler temperatures. - Warmer and drier for the weekend. Later in the evening, the core of the upper-level trough moves through. The upper-level low bringing in cooler air aloft later this evening will keep a little bit of elevated instability and isolated storms into the overnight hours.
Temperatures early this afternoon were already in the 100s over most of the lower Ark Rvr valley over the plains. For the rest of today, no significant changes from earlier fcst as temps will be well into the lower 100s across a good part of the plains with highs pushing 90 over the San Luis valley.
What does that mean? Well temperatures will be cooler than what we'd normally expect for early August with temperatures in the mid to low 80s today and tomorrow. Rain chances will be limited to northern Georgia, as NE flow will force what little moisture in the atmosphere to interact with some of the higher points in NE Georgia.
Friday will be the driest day with a very low (<15%) of showers or thunderstorms as a mid to upper level high pressure system dominates S TX weather. Over the weekend there will be a low to medium (20-40%) chance of showers and thunderstorms along the sea breeze due to a mid level inverted trough moving across the region and advecting slightly deeper moisture into the area.
212 PM EDT Thu Aug 7 2025 * High pressure ridging southwest into PA from the New England States and Quebec Canada will maintain dry weather, seasonable temperatures and moderate humidity through the upcoming weekend.
Updated at 1203 PM CDT Thu Aug 7 2025 - A slight warming trend will begin Thursday with afternoon highs in the low to mid 90s through the end of the week.
Add dewpoints well up into the 60s, and we are looking at heat indices a few degrees warmer yet.
/NEW/ Update: The mid level ridge situated just west of the region will continue drag Canadian wildfire smoke around its east flank while keeping the hot and dry weather going into the weekend. 30 Previous Discussion: /Through Friday/ Today and tomorrow will feature the hottest temperatures of the week as a 598-600 dam mid-level ridge remains stationed over New Mexico.
Otherwise, quiet conditions will exist across the area tonight, with lows falling into the low and middle 70s. A stout upper-level ridge of high pressure over the Desert Southwest will break down over the next few days and allow a more zonal flow pattern to develop over the northern CONUS.
Looking for the warmest coastal valleys to top out around 100 and deserts in the lower 100s. At that point models are showing a more pronounced upper level trough developing along the West coast which will initiate a significant cooling trend with temperatures eventually dropping to below normal levels and increasing low clouds and fog into the valleys.
739 PM EDT Thu Aug 7 2025 Isolated to scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms today and tomorrow provide the only chances for precipitation over the next several days as high pressure continues to dominate.
549 PM MDT Thu Aug 7 2025 - Breezy Today With Isolated Storms North and East - Critical Fire Weather Conditions Today Due to Wind & Humidity - Much Cooler Temperatures Tomorrow As an area of low pressure moves eastward through eastern Washington state, northern Idaho, and Montana an associated cold front will swing through Eastern Idaho later this evening/tonight. While this cold front won't bring much precipitation, it will at least bring some relief from the heat. Highs today will be in the mid to upper 80s in our valley locations and we will be about 5 to 10 degrees cooler on Friday, meaning highs for many in the mid to upper 70s and a few low 80s.
Tomorrow, the forecast challenge comes from what happens with the nearby upper altitude low pressure system located northeast of the Bahamas. While prior model runs showed the low moving west and providing an additional source of lift, recent model runs show the low stalling or dissipating. Should the upper level low be decoupled from the tropical easterly wave moving over the peninsula, shower coverage tomorrow would decrease. From synopsis, a broad area of high pressure across the Gulf and Florida Peninsula will continue to consolidate, as a weak tropical wave continues to push through the Keys coastal waters.
615 PM CDT Thu Aug 7 2025 (This evening through Friday) Not much on radar this afternoon as high pressure is building and the wedge is retreating. On Friday the mid-level ridge axis will continue to build eastward towards the Lower Ohio Valley, while southern portions of the Southeast trough begin to form a weak/broad upper low over the northern Gulf. With another surge of dry easterly flow at the lowest levels, PoPs are on the lower side again, with high temperatures.
625 PM CDT Thu Aug 7 2025 (Tonight through Friday night) Subtropical ridge continues to stay parked over New Mexico through Friday. Subsidence under this ridge along with a continued dry airmass should limit the potential for rain with the exception of Lavaca and DeWitt counties as the seabreeze makes its way westward in the afternoon.
704 PM EDT Thu Aug 7 2025 - Very isolated storms possible through the early evening hours; most areas will remain dry - Patchy fog possible again tonight - Dry through the weekend, with gradually warmer and more humid conditions expected - Shower and thunderstorm chances return next work week. Aloft, dry air and subsidence will be in play, as a strong upper ridge, orgininating from an upper high over the American southwest will be passing across the region through the weekend. Southerly flow will keep warm and humid air in place over Indiana through the weekend, resulting in highs in the lower 90s and lows in the upper 60s.
806 PM EDT Thu Aug 7 2025 * High pressure ridging southwest into PA from the New England States and Quebec Canada will maintain dry weather, seasonable temperatures and moderate humidity through the upcoming weekend.
Otherwise drier air is working into the region on the backside of a departing upper trough. Clearing skies and the cooler/drier air mass behind the trough will result in a chilly morning, with low temperatures around 10 degrees below normal (low 50s in the Snake Plane and upper 30s to low 40s in mtn valleys).
616 PM CDT Thu Aug 7 2025 Updated at 554 PM CDT Thu Aug 7 2025 - A slight warming trend will begin Thursday with afternoon highs in the low to mid 90s through the end of the week.
Winds will be very light to calm, but a few intermittent gusts are possible with a trough remaining overhead. Tonight's temperatures will generally be in the mid 60s across the lowlands, ranging into the mid 50s northeast mountains.
Mid level high pressure will remain centered over the Desert Southwest over the next few days, placing Deep South Texas within the southeaster periphery of ridging aloft. Heading into the weekend, model guidance indicates there may be a slight uptick in precipitation across portions of the region as a weak mid level trough translates towards the Texas Coast. The highest moisture content is expected to reside along and east of I-69E, and may result in pockets of locally heavy rain within robust showers or thunderstorms.
Satellite and radar imagery this afternoon shows scattered showers/thunderstorms developing across the WA Columbia Basin and isolated cells developing over the higher terrain of the north east OR, including the Grande Ronde Valley. These storms are the result of an upper trough passing over the PacNW today, with thunderstorms developing under favorable conditions, as the exit region of an upper jet wrapping around the trough is currently co-located over these storms. Through Tonight: The upper trough will continue to move across the PacNW today, resulting in showers and thunderstorms to continue to develop into the early evening hours. Otherwise, the upper trough passage will result in breezy conditions through the Cascade gaps into the Columbia Basin through this evening.
The morning thunderstorms ended by early this afternoon over southern Iowa as warmer air aloft has resulted in developing elevated mixed layer (EML). High temperatures in the lower 90s and dew points in the low to mid 70s will push heat index values into the 100s. A closed low will be moving from southern Alberta to southern Manitoba through early Saturday. That system will suppress the upper level high to the south and bring modified southwest flow into Iowa as a surface boundary settles into the state.
The axis of this trough is over the westernmost waters and about to move further into the Gulf. Temperatures along the Island Chain are in the lower to mid 80s and dew points in the mid 70s. Due to the high PWAT values mentioned in the discussion above, residual boundaries from earlier convection, and the MCV, we decided to raise the PoPs for today to 80% which is an increase from the previous 70%.
435 AM EDT Fri Aug 8 2025 * A ridge of high pressure extending from Central PA to the Atlantic waters just south of Nova Scotia will result in a growing number of dry, warm days and mainly clear relatively comfortable nights through this weekend.
- A cold front will bring cooler temperatures to the region, and additional chances for showers and storms. This has lead to cooler high temperatures than anticipated today. Aforementioned cutoff low at H5 traversing our northern international border drags a powerful cold front through the Northern Plains, driving into eastern Nebraska around sunset Friday night. Highs on Saturday will suffer with the shallow cooler air in place plus clouds and possible showers/storms associated with the stalled front. Best chances of those showers and storms (50-70% south of I-80) on Saturday will wait for the low- level nocturnal jet.
153 AM MDT Fri Aug 8 2025 - Scattered showers, cooler (68 to 78), and breezy today. - Isolated showers, a bit warmer (70s to lower 80s), and continued breezy Saturday.
254 AM EDT Fri Aug 8 2025 * High pressure ridging southwest into PA from the New England States and Quebec Canada will maintain dry weather, seasonable temperatures and moderate humidity through the upcoming weekend.
(Today and tonight) For today, weak upper level troughing and low-level northeasterly flow will continue. This moisture gradient will result in the highest rain chances across the southeast Florida Big Bend today with lower chances further northwest. High temperatures will generally range from the mid 80s to near 90 with overnight lows in the low to mid 70s.
Outside of storm chances, temperatures look to be about the same peaking in the afternoon in the low 90s for the entire area.