Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1146 AM MDT Tue Sep 9 2025 - Expect isolated to scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms focused over the higher terrain through Wednesday with a small chance of storms lingering into the early morning hours.
Update was made to the forecast this morning to increase shower and thunderstorm coverage across the Lower Treasure Valley into Baker County. Ahead of an upper level low over southwest Oregon, there will be enough moisture and instability for scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop this afternoon over the central Idaho mountains.
139 PM EDT Tue Sep 9 2025 Low pressure tracking off the eastern seaboard will bring some clouds and perhaps a few showers to areas mainly south and east of Albany late tonight and Wednesday.
These values are still a bit cooler than normal for the date, but about 5-6 degrees warmer in most locations than 24 hours ago. Gosselin The summerlike pattern will continue through at least this weekend with building mid/upper level ridging overhead and 850-hPa temperatures climbing closer to +20C (>95th percentile of climatology).
- An upper level high will build over the region late in the week into the weekend keeping rain chances out of the forecast.
- Overnight low temperatures will be in the low 50s to near 60. High pressure will remain in place, helping to sustain these dry, sunny conditions, with the nearest moisture being associated with a stationary front that remains in place over the northern part of the peninsula of Florida. The highest PoP over the CWA is over southeastern Toombs county, at two percent. Overnight lows will be in the low 50s to near 60 tonight and tomorrow night.
A nearly vertically stacked area of low pressure remains off the coast this afternoon.
1202 PM EDT Tue Sep 9 2025 High pressure maintains control over the area through much of the week, yielding a stretch of dry weather amid a subtle warming trend. Overall mainly dry conditions continue in the near term period with high pressure in control.
1106 AM EDT Tue Sep 9 2025 High pressure will dominate the weather pattern through the week with dry conditions and a slow warming trend. Mostly clear skies and high pressure in place will yield a nice mid September day across the forecast area. A dry air mass remains in place with dewpoints mixing out in the lower 50s and possibly upper 40s with low humidity expected. Key message(s): - High pressure maintains a dry pattern with gradually warming temperatures.
1203 PM CDT Tue Sep 9 2025 (Rest of Today and Tonight) Mostly clear conditions this morning, with high pressure situated to the north and east of the region. Expect more of the same as ample sunshine should help to warm temperatures into the low to mid 80s once again in this dry air mass.
The late morning sfc analysis indicates extensive sfc ridging that extends from New England SW through the OH and the Mid MS Vallies, into ECntrl TX, with the leading edge (on its Wrn fringe) of higher theta-e air noted from SW and Cntrl LA into NE LA and along the MS Valley, indicative of the contrast of lower/mid 60s isodrosotherms and the developing cu field noted on the visible satellite imagery. Meanwhile, flat upper ridging remains anchored over the Desert SW and Old MX late this morning, but has recently shown signs of expanding NNE into the Srn Rockies, and should continue to amplify NNE into the Nrn Plains/Upper Midwest Wednesday as the center settles into W TX.
Through Wednesday, the weak low pressure area over the Gulf waters will drift slowly west with a stalled boundary across north Florida.
145 PM CDT Tue Sep 9 2025 Tonight through Wednesday night: Afternoon satellite imagery showed the circulation around an upper level trough over our CWA and a disturbance along the southeast Louisiana and Mississippi Gulf coast.
Still dealing with MCS remnants over our western CWA which has brought some scattered mainly light showers to that area along with keeping temperatures on the cooler side. Water vapor imagery shows a digging low over the west coast and a ridge axis over the high plains and northwest flow across the plains and into our CWA. For tonight, we should end the precipitation chances with partly cloudy conditions and temperatures in the mid 50s in the east to the low 60s in the west. The upper ridge axis will build a bit further east into the plains and Mississippi valley.
Highs in the low to mid 70s are near to slightly below early September climo with the largest departures from the historical average (3-6 degrees) across the southern tier. Even some global model data is starting to show some light rain expanding westward into southeast PA with low pressure tracking off the Mid Atlantic coast. A drier northerly flow will return fair wx to central PA through late week as another seasonably strong dome of high pressure expands into New England. In this flow, lingering and renewing trough energies dig/move slowly into/over the East downstream of an upper ridge over the central U.
(This evening through Wednesday night) Visible satellite imagery early this afternoon depicts cumulus building across the higher terrain in New Mexico with isolated storms attempting to form over that region. Similar to yesterday, synoptic scale forcing is lacking for today but with temperatures expected to be a bit warmer, convective temperatures are forecast to be reached this afternoon. Center of high pressure should be south of the forecast area on Wednesday with temperatures once again in the upper 80s to low 90s. Synoptic support for storms will once again be lacking on Wednesday but storms may still be able to form off of the higher terrain and move east or convective temperatures are reached. Severe storms are currently not expected given the lack of instability, but strong wind gusts cannot be ruled out with drier conditions in the lower levels of the atmosphere.
129 PM EDT Tue Sep 9 2025 Dry weather will last all week as high pressure remains in control from the Ohio Valley to the eastern Great Lakes.
151 PM EDT Tue Sep 9 2025 High pressure will dominate the weather pattern through the week with dry conditions and a slow warming trend. Little change in the air mass as high pressure centered over New England continues to ridge down the East Coast. Key message(s): - Surface ridging and calm weather expected throughout the middle of the week. Strong high pressure remains in place across the NE CONUS, extending surface ridging, northeasterly flow, and dry advection down the lee side of the of the Appalachians. While some weak troughing will remain draped across the TN Valley and Appalachians during this period, PWAT's well below average and surface dews in the 50's will prevent any appreciable cloud cover let alone precip chances.
The low instability will also help in the lack of thunderstorms category. Guidance is latching onto an upper level trough that will provide some lift and the lingering surface boundary.
Dewpoints have already recovered into the low to mid 70s at most locations and this will keep overnight lows several degrees warmer tonight than the last two nights - especially for northern areas. Expect morning lows mostly in the upper 60s to to lower 70s north and in in the low to mid 70s south. By Wednesday the moisture leading to today's showers and storms will be shunted southward as the upper trough over the eastern CONUS digs a bit southward and brings slightly drier air into northern portions of the area. This will result in only low end POPs for coastal SE LA on Wednesday and will allow afternoon temperatures to rise into the lower 90s in most places.
A deep trough remains over much of the Eastern CONUS with low level high pressure in place.
149 PM PDT Tue Sep 9 2025 Updated at 1206 AM PDT Tue Sep 9 2025 * Dry conditions through Tuesday afternoon as upper ridge builds over the Four Corners, keeping drier SW flow aloft over Nevada.
Pattern evolution will see H5 heights rise toward 590 DM by week's end, as a stout high pressure ridge aloft centers over the country's mid-section. An overall lack of moisture under the synoptic scale sink of the anti-cyclone will keep most pops at bay and silent, which will only exacerbate our current drought conditions and heighten fire danger with time as fuels dry out. Fortunately, the anti-cyclone also keeps winds generally at bay as well, and still abundant leafing coverage offers some mitigating shelter to boot. A developing warm advection pattern will allow for some sensible weather influences despite the overall grip of high pressure strengthening and keeping mostly Visual Flight Rules as the prevailing forecast.
The synoptic pattern is defined by stout mid to upper level ridging in the western U. with troughing prominent across the southeast U. Going into the afternoon, the stout mid to upper level ridging continues its eastward track towards our area. A H850 thermal ridge shifts farther east bringing H850 temperatures near 70 degrees F. As mid to upper level ridging continues to approach the area, expect temperatures to continue to warm.
A broad trough is evident on water vapor imagery early this afternoon digging southeastward into the Midwest. Several, smaller vorts are embedded within this broader trough with the most prominent one over southwest MN/northwest IA. The larger, parent trough, with embedded vorts, will move across our area later tonight and Wednesday. As the upper trough progresses eastward, it will encounter and increasingly parched air mass. Temp forecast is a bit tricky with low level thermal fields favoring temps warming toward if not into the lower 80s, though extent and thickness of cloudiness could result in temps being held a few degrees cooler, especially northern/northwestern CWA.
Dry weather should prevail areawide thereafter, with overnight lows tonight similar to those last night in eastern Oklahoma and several degrees warmer in northwest Arkansas.
Despite troughing over the area tomorrow as well, it'll still be too dry for rain. (Wednesday Night through next Tuesday) By mid-week, an upper-level ridge builds over the Plains, and through the remainder of the week, it will be migrating to the east.
309 PM EDT Tue Sep 9 2025 High pressure will persist across the region through the week.
Speaking of summer, a mid to upper level ridge builds in midweek and beyond leading to a gradual warming trend. We'll go from high temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s today to the low to mid 90s midweek and mid to upper 90s at the end of the work week. Overnight temperatures will see a somewhat similar upward trend from the low to upper 60s tonight to the upper 60s to mid 70s for the remainder of the forecast period.
129 PM EDT Tue Sep 9 2025 The area will remain on the western periphery of high pressure through Wednesday.
122 PM EDT Tue Sep 9 2025 High pressure overhead will allow radiational cooling to push temperatures below normal tonight. Boundarey-level temperatures are slightly warmer tonight which could keep values high enough for any frost. Low pressure will track off the east coast Wednesday and Wednesday night. Another seasonably warm day into the 70's Wednesday with overnight lows trending a little warmer each night.
112 PM EDT Tue Sep 9 2025 High pressure maintains control over the area through much of the week, yielding a stretch of dry weather amid a subtle warming trend. Overall mainly dry conditions continue in the near term period with high pressure in control.
Temperatures on Wednesday will generally be 3 to 5 degrees warmer versus today as heights nudge upward from the upper level ridge starting to influence the region. Although highs will be in the low to mid 90s, feels-like temps will still be very close to the actual temperature from the drier air in place, so it should be another pleasant day on Wednesday.
/issued 134 PM PDT Mon Sep 8 2025/ An upper low, currently off the coast of northern California and southern Oregon will move onshore tonight into early Tuesday.
The mid and upper levels will consist of weak troughing through this afternoon and tonight over the southeastern states. At the surface a stationary front will remain to the south of the region, with high pressure centered over New England building in from the north. The dominating high pressure will yield a dry forecast.
- Below average temperature today although a warming trend starting mid-week with warmer than average temperatures through the weekend. (Rest of today and tonight) Mid-level heights will increase gradually today as a ridge slowly moves in from the west. We will begin to see increasing high temperatures through the week and into the weekend as the aforementioned ridge moves in from the west and stay overhead. Mostly clear skies tonight will help overnight lows dip down into the low to mid 60s with a light southerly breeze.
As the system gradually spins east, the latest CAMs pinpoint the highest QPF near Goodhue County in MN & along and south of I-94 in WI. Isolated showers could redevelop in the wake of this system tomorrow morning across western WI, but impacts should be low to Our gradual warm up continues through the end of the week as ridging builds over the Upper Midwest.
1100 AM PDT Tue Sep 9 2025 * Fall-like system brings breezy winds, cooler temperatures, and dry conditions to the Desert Southwest this week.
259 PM MDT Tue Sep 9 2025 KEY MESSAGES: - Among the mild haze of wildfire smoke in the region, high pressure and daily hot temperatures will prevail through Wednesday. WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Most shower and thunderstorm activity today will be confined to areas west of US-191, as the ridge of high pressure still holds sway over eastern Montana. The approaching low pressure system from the west, will slowly move eastward from Oregon through Idaho over the next several days, and gradually expand the area of convective activity for our region later this week and into this weekend, which will also result in cooler temperatures.
142 PM EDT Tue Sep 9 2025 A stalled front will linger offshore with ridging high pressure inland.
At this vantage point, we expect an associated lower cloud deck and perhaps patchy light rain/drizzle to push as far inland as parts of the Lower Susquehanna Valley.
223 PM EDT Tue Sep 9 2025 High pressure moves east of the area tonight and into the southern Maritimes Wednesday.
With mostly clear skies, highs are on track to reach the lower to mid 80s for most locations. Although, the higher terrain of northeastern Alabama and southern middle Tennessee will be a touch cooler, in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Previous Discussion: Mostly clear conditions this morning, with high pressure situated to the north and east of the region. Expect more of the same as ample sunshine should help to warm temperatures into the low to mid 80s once again in this dry air mass.
Today is warmer than yesterday as highs look to find their way into the upper 70s and low 80s. Wednesday brings even warmer temperatures with highs in the lower to mid 80s for most.
Upper low is creating enough instability with abundant moisture to keep storms pulsing through the rest of the afternoon.
257 PM PDT Tue Sep 9 2025 * A low pressure system will bring breezy winds, cooler temperatures, and dry conditions to the Desert Southwest this week.
803 PM EDT Tue Sep 9 2025 Fair dry weather expected Wednesday and a few degrees warmer.
An upper low south of the area will continue to weaken and shift eastward.
933 PM EDT Tue Sep 9 2025 High pressure will build to the north through the middle of the week. Meanwhile, a weak wave of low pressure slides up the East Coast.
743 PM EDT Tue Sep 9 2025 High pressure will persist across the region through the week.
Pattern evolution will see H5 heights rise toward 590 DM by week's end, as a stout high pressure ridge aloft centers over the country's mid-section. An overall lack of moisture under the synoptic scale sink of the anti-cyclone will keep most pops at bay and silent, which will only exacerbate our current drought conditions and heighten fire danger with time as fuels dry out. Fortunately, the anti-cyclone also keeps winds generally at bay as well, and still abundant leafing coverage offers some mitigating shelter to boot.
Low pressure will slowly move onshore this through this evening. The upper low is expected to pivot near the coast, consolidate, and then head across NorCal tonight into Wednesday.
tonight into Wednesday as a weak mid level trough moves across northern Wisconsin.
Tonight: The mid/upper levels will consist of weak troughing across the Southeast United States through the night. At the sfc, a stationary front will remain south of the region while high pressure centered over New England builds in from the north. The pattern will yield a dry forecast for all areas, but also cooler conditions under few high clouds, due to light northeasterly winds and cold air advection occurring overnight.
727 PM EDT Tue Sep 9 2025 Low pressure tracking off the eastern seaboard will bring some clouds and perhaps a few showers to areas mainly south and east of Albany late tonight and Wednesday.
745 PM EDT Tue Sep 9 2025 A stalled front will linger offshore with ridging high pressure inland.
206 PM PDT Tue Sep 9 2025 * A low pressure system will bring breezy winds, cooler temperatures, and dry conditions to the Desert Southwest this week.
732 PM EDT Tue Sep 9 2025 High pressure maintains control over the area through much of the week, yielding a stretch of dry weather amid a subtle warming trend. Overall mainly dry conditions continue in the near term period with high pressure in control.
Late today, surface ridging extends southwestward near the eastern slope of the Appalachians and continues to sustain our dry air mass. Aloft, flow is weak and a sizable but weak trough is situated roughly over the Mississippi Valley late today. The trough will very slowly move east and be over our area late Wednesday night.
631 PM CDT Tue Sep 9 2025 Tonight through Wednesday night: Afternoon satellite imagery showed the circulation around an upper level trough over our CWA and a disturbance along the southeast Louisiana and Mississippi Gulf coast.
923 PM EDT Tue Sep 9 2025 Low pressure tracking off the eastern seaboard will bring some clouds and perhaps a few showers to areas mainly south and east of Albany late tonight and Wednesday.
Good radiational cooling with drier air still advecting in from the east will allow temperatures to fall into the lower 60s and upper 50s areawide. Winds aloft will shift from the north to northwest between 700-500mb as an upper level trough axis swings across the eastern CONUS. Upper level height rises combined with increased low-level thickness values and the already present dry air mass will lead to warmer afternoon highs topping out in the mid to upper 80s.
705 PM EDT Tue Sep 9 2025 High pressure overhead will allow radiational cooling to push temperatures below normal tonight. Boundarey-level temperatures are slightly warmer tonight which could keep values high enough for any frost. Low pressure will track off the east coast Wednesday and Wednesday night. Another seasonably warm day into the 70's Wednesday with overnight lows trending a little warmer each night.
A deep trough over the western U. Then cooler temperatures and accumulating rainfall are expected to occur this weekend as the trough moves further eastward. There is moderate to high confidence of a few locations receiving a wetting rain, but placement of the highest rainfall is still quite uncertain.
The September 10th 00Z sounding revealed a low-level temperature inversion/cap near 800 millibars - over 100 millibars below the freezing level.
(This evening through Wednesday) High pressure is gradually building back in across the region.
- Below average temperature today although a warming trend starting mid-week with warmer than average temperatures through the weekend. (Rest of today and tonight) Mid-level heights will increase gradually today as a ridge slowly moves in from the west. We will begin to see increasing high temperatures through the week and into the weekend as the aforementioned ridge moves in from the west and stay overhead. Mostly clear skies tonight will help overnight lows dip down into the low to mid 60s with a light southerly breeze. Bunker (Wednesday through Thursday night) The aforementioned ridge will continue to build over our area through the middle of the week.
Not much of a change from the previous forecast package with high pressure continuing to build aloft.
- Despite the somewhat milder afternoons and cooler mornings lately, Summer returns with middle to upper 90s likely by later this week. Our region of the country remains under the influence of a subtle longwave trough across the Great Lakes into the Ohio and Lower Miss Valleys with upstream ridging noted across the Great Plains. This has allowed for cooler mornings and moderating temperatures during the afternoon to go along with low afternoon humidity, making afternoon temperatures somewhat tolerable for early September. The downstream longwave trough will lift out somewhat across the Appalachians by Thu into Fri and the upstream upper ridging mentioned above slowly migrating eastward, setting up shop across much of Oklahoma and Texas.
though temps were a bit warmer this morning than earlier in the week. Flow aloft will transition from a NWRLY direction today to more NRLY by late this week as an upper ridge expands west of AR. This upper ridge will slowly expand and drift east over the region. Looks like temps will peak over the weekend with the center of the upper ridge over the region. Expect the upper ridge to remain either over the region.
/NEW/ /Through Thursday Night/ As high pressure settles across the Southern Plains, slightly warmer temperatures are expected today compared to yesterday. Another 2-4 degree increase is expected on Thursday compared to today with continued strengthening of the high pressure system.
The cooler trend continues today as the trough continues to make its way into California. However, this trough also will push the smoke from the Garnet Fire into Nevada especially in the afternoon and evening.
248 AM EDT Wed Sep 10 2025 High pressure continues to move east into the southern Maritimes today. A cold front will cross the region Thursday.
156 AM EDT Wed Sep 10 2025 High pressure will dominate the weather pattern through the next seven days with dry conditions and near to above normal daytime temperatures. The region will remain positioned along the eastern periphery of an upper level trough. At the surface, strong ridging will continue to build down along the lee of the Appalachians, resulting in a northerly flow. High temperatures will be slightly below normal, in the lower to mid 80s. Key message(s): - Surface ridging and calm weather expected throughout the middle of the week.
The cold closed upper low becomes vertically stacked over northern California today. 50 in/hr shows the higher chance (15-30%) over the higher terrain in Lake County late this afternoon.
350 AM EDT Wed Sep 10 2025 Weak low pressure will pass well to the south and east through tonight.
(Today and tonight) Dry and warm weather will persist across the area again today, as an upper level ridge over the Rockies continues to expand eastward into West Central Texas.
Highs today will be in the low to mid 80s with overnight lows in the 60s. Despite the increasing daytime highs, overnight lows will still fall back into the low 60s.
Upper low is creating enough instability with abundant moisture to keep storms pulsing through the rest of the afternoon. The pattern will continue through Thursday as the low continues to push through the PacNW. Showers and thunderstorms embedded with abundant lightning will continue to be the main story as the weather disturbance progresses and brings cooler temperatures along the process. High temps will taper down to seasonal normal to around 5 degrees below normal, with some places in the area only reaching the high 70s to low 80s for their highs. We'll go through a more transitional weather phase going into the weekend, as the area will be in-between two weather systems when the current trough exits the region.