Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Through tonight: Isolated thunderstorms will continue to develop in association with the upper low centered over the southeast CONUS. Cyclonic flow and lift associated with the low will continue to interact with and abundance of moisture and instability to support a few strong to severe storms.
Morning lows will continue to be near to slightly warmer than normal, with warmer than normal afternoon highs.
High pressure will maintain VFR conditions through the remainder of this evening and into the early overnight period. Conditions improve by around 13Z with high pressure continuing to bring dry conditions and VFR skies. 5 sigma) 500mb ridge remains parked over the Great Lakes between a coastal low in the Mid-Atlantic and a cutoff upper low over Wyoming. Persistence forecast on Wednesday with the ridge maintaining highly stable conditions across the area. Another day of full sun sends highs back into the lower to mid 80s. The ridge then begins to break down Wednesday night as a northern stream waves tracks across Ontario.
Minor impacts possible over the highest elevations of the Beartooth Highway. A 500 mb trough will continue to drop through the region tonight. This low will advect moisture into Eastern Montana bringing precipitation chances (30-60%) for locations south and east of a line from Red Lodge to Baker.
While high temperatures will continue to be fairly close to normal, abnormally dry conditions across the area will again lead to cooler than normal low temperatures overnight.
Otherwise, the high temperatures will generally be in the low to mid 90s range and overnight lows in the upper 60s to mid 70s. A slow moving upper trough will continue to shift eastward into the northern and central Plains on Wednesday, keeping the best lift well north of our area. Temperatures will be very similar to today, with highs in the low to mid 90s.
729 PM EDT Tue Sep 16 2025 High pressure will extend across the region. Low pressure will meander near the North Carolina Outer Banks through the middle of the week. A cold front could approach from the north early in the weekend. On radar, KCAE shows a cluster of isolated showers and thunderstorms moving to the southeast just on the GA side of the Savannah River in the lower part of the SC Upstate. Much like like night, we could even see a few of the typical cooler spots approach the mid 50s. Aloft, low pressure centered across the Mid-Atlantic States on Wednesday will slowly weaken and become an open wave of weak troughing extending north/south along the eastern periphery of the Appalachians into late week with some subtle hints of weak ridging occurring by the weekend.
728 PM EDT Tue Sep 16 2025 High pressure will continue to bring warming temperatures and dry weather conditions to the region this week.
- Minimal rain chances and warm through the week; turning cooler with better rain chances by the weekend. Wednesday continues the warm, dry pattern under the ridge, with high pressure still dominate.
High pressure will stay in control aloft through the remainder of the week. Aside from the rain chances, temperatures will run slightly above normal, with highs in the 90s and overnight lows ranging from the upper 60s to the low 70s inland.
A broader trough moving into the region from the northeast Pacific will bring better rain chances towards the end of the week and into the weekend, especially near the coast and across southwest Washington.
A few showers will remain possible tonight, mainly over the next few hours, within the low level cyclonic flow regime; however, additional stronger convection is rather unlikely. Through tonight: Isolated thunderstorms will continue to develop in association with the upper low centered over the southeast CONUS. Cyclonic flow and lift associated with the low will continue to interact with and abundance of moisture and instability to support a few strong to severe storms.
This is in response to the northern end of an upper level ridge located over the forecast area retreating southward and the southern end of an upper trough located over the northern Rockies this afternoon rotating eastward over the High Plains.
Key message(s): - A shower or two is possible this evening as the upper low moves over the region. Satellite imagery this evening reveals the upper low slowly moving toward the northeast, now positioned in northern NC with the associated coastal low near the NC/VA border. The CWA has remained on the dry side but a couple diminishing showers from the upstate are sneaking into the northern Lincoln and McCormick Counties as a pocket of mid level moisture rotates around the upper low. Upper low will begin its hike northeastward as the omega block continues to break down. Across the southeastern US, weak flow and weak troughing is actually favored during this period.
Clouds are holding on locally in the circulation around the low on the Mid-Atlantic coast, and adjustments were made for this evening. Mid-level heights will begin to rise tonight and gradually continue as upper ridging moves over the area from the west. Ridging aloft continues to build eastward through the end of the work week, keeping conditions relatively benign.
- Weak frontal boundary moves in late Wednesday through the end of the week bringing increasing rain chances and slightly cooler temperatures - At least low shower and storm chances linger into the weekend as various disturbances move nearby the local region. Temperatures this afternoon will also be similar to previous days, with highs topping out in the low to mid 90s across the region. Bowlan (Tomorrow through Tuesday) A bit of a pattern change begins on Wednesday as a broad upper low begins to drop south over the Northern and Central Plains and become "cutoff" from the main jet activity to the north in Canada.
We will see some vort maxes spin around the upper level low today. (Wednesday Night through next Tuesday) An upper level ridge will build in for the middle to end of the week.
A west-northwesterly flow persists aloft with mid-level ridging centered over Mexico.
400 PM MDT Tue Sep 16 2025 - Showers and storms develop over the higher terrain along and north of I-70 Wednesday afternoon. A low pressure system remains centered over Wyoming this afternoon with a front draped over northeast Utah. High temperatures tomorrow will be a handful of degrees cooler behind the front.
621 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025 A northerly upper flow will continue through the end of the week as an upper low remains across the eastern CONUS. By the end of the week the upper low will break down and lift northward as weak upper level troughing develops across the eastern states. High temps will remain above normal, in the low 90s.
- A few strong storms later this afternoon and late tomorrow afternoon/evening - Cooler tomorrow plains.
The chance of precipitation forecast for this evening and overnight remains capped around 20-30% for this low-confidence thunderstorm environment later tonight.
Low pressure will linger over the mid-Atlantic coast today and Wednesday, bringing increased clouds, slightly cooler temperatures, and a few isolated showers over the far eastern mountains. Average highs across the lowlands are generally in the lower 80s, while average highs across the mountains are generally in the 70s.
These showers are from the low pressure system spinning just off the VA/NC coast. This low is pulling moisture around its backside and streaming increased clouds and isolated showers into NE GA. This low center is expected to move N to NW tonight becoming centered over eastern VA Wed afternoon. With this low center moving further northward not expecting any precip chances Wednesday. Afternoon highs will peak in the mid 80s to near 90 with morning lows in the lower to mid 60s.
These showers are from the low pressure system spinning just off the VA/NC coast. This low is pulling moisture around its backside and streaming increased clouds and isolated showers into NE GA. This low center is expected to move N to NW tonight becoming centered over eastern VA Wed afternoon. With this low center moving further northward not expecting any precip chances Wednesday.
- Moist airmass coming off the Gulf will combine with upper low eclipsing the southeast US to bring about the chance for isolated to scattered afternoon showers again today. - Temperatures should hold steady in the low 90s through the forecast period.
Amplification of an upper ridge over the Intermountain West will bring a stretch of dry and warm weather to the region.
- Shower/t-storm potential will linger into Wednesday, with cooler conditions through Thursday.
(This evening through Wednesday) The upper level ridge will continue to weaken over our area as an upper level trough moves into the central U. The weakening upper ridging could allow for some isolated diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms both this afternoon and tomorrow afternoon.
- High chances for rain and thunderstorms are forecasted for Wednesday and Thursday with the highest chances for rain on Wednesday evening into the night. - Slightly cooler temperatures in the 70s to low 80s are expected Thursday due to cloud cover and a cold frontal passage. Wednesday, upper level trough over Wyoming will shift a bit to the southeast over western Nebraska later in the evening. So the severe threat is certainly on the lower side, but we are outlooked for a 5% chance from SPC, and that seems reasonable. Thursday's highs for the most part will be in the 70s given the cooler air in place, but further south of I-40 where the front may not progress, we could still see low to mid 80s for a high.
(Today through Thursday) Additional subtle impulses aloft will drift southward atop our region today, guided by a low pressure system over coastal Virginia. In the low levels, a broad pattern of confluence will continue. The Mid-Atlatic low pressure system will zip northeastward Wednesday night into Thursday as it is absorbed by a larger trough to its north. High temperatures will run between 5-10 degrees above seasonal normals, with upper 80s to lower 90s forecast for today and more- so in the lower 90s for Thursday.
Quiet conditions will persist through at least Thursday as a somewhat blocked large-scale pattern with a strong ridge over the Great Lakes begins to break down. Kluber While quiet and dry weather will persist in this blocked pattern through the rest of the work week, the upper level ridge begins to break down heading into the weekend as a western trough (and/or potential cut-off low) begins to slide eastward towards the Great Lakes.
This was rotating around an upper low over SE Virginia. Low temperatures should cool into the low/mid 60s. An upper level blocking pattern in place across the North American domain should begin to break down as we go into the latter half of the week. It's eastern low over eastern VA should move more to the north across the Delmarva, while the upper ridge to our west weakens some. A big question is will it rain? Given dewpoints in the low/mid 60s and daytime heating should produce surface based CAPES into 500-1200 J/kg could support an isolated shower and/or storm in the afternoon.
A weak upper low will begin to meander eastward across the Northern/Central Plains during the period. The base of the weak upper trough will move closer by Thursday, when another round of showers and thunderstorms is currently anticipated. Temperatures will continue to run cooler (especially north) on Thursday, with potential for more widespread rain/clouds throughout the day.
- Minimal rain chances and warm through the week; turning cooler with better rain chances by the weekend. Wednesday continues the warm, dry pattern under the ridge, with high pressure still dominate. The ridge weakens late Wednesday night into Thursday as a front approaches the region. Following that, high pressure rebuilds late in the week into the early weekend, bringing mostly dry condtions.
The forecast remains on track, with high pressure remaining in control through the rest of the week.
Clouds and more widespread showers will be ushered in with the upper level low/trough for the weekend while cooler air follows in the wake of the low. Again, where more rain is realized temps will hold a few degrees cooler (60s for highs certainly possible). Will lean into the NBM for chances for now, which hold most west of the Mississippi river/north of I-94 (influence of the ridge holding spreading chance further east/southeast). Rain chances will be on the increase as the area comes more directly under the influence of the upper level low/trough.
204 AM EDT Wed Sep 17 2025 A ridge of high pressure will persist across the Northeast and eastern Great Lakes regions through Thursday.
128 AM EDT Wed Sep 17 2025 As low pressure to our north weather weakens the mid to late week period will have light wind and feature a warmup.
A closed upper low over the East Coast opens, leaving a weakening upper trough centered along the East Coast into the weekend.
158 AM EDT Wed Sep 17 2025 High pressure remains in place but there is going to be more clouds this afternoon with a small chance of showers in NE PA into the Southern Catskills.
203 AM EDT Wed Sep 17 2025 Upper low to our northeast will continue to move away from the region today. Key message(s): - Upper low moves away from the region - Continued warm and dry The upper low over southeast VA and eastern NC will gradually lift away from the region today. Skies become mostly clear overnight allowing for reasonable radiational cooling and overnight lows expected in the lower 60s.
Today through Thursday: Quiet weather will prevail for the next couple days with warm, dry conditions from the high pressure system with a thermal trough. Daytime RHs will be in the 30s for the lower elevations through Thursday with overnight RH recoveries becoming moderate to good.
As a weak upper trough interacts with and shears off this moisture, it will rapidly surge northward, first along the California coast and areas inland.
155 AM EDT Wed Sep 17 2025 High pressure will maintain fair weather through Thursday.
Clouds cover most of southeast Arizona with a few isolated showers around the higher terrain and the AZ/NM border. Plenty of moisture in place thanks to southerly/southwesterly mid-level flow that has advected moisture from the remnants of Mario, which has been downgraded to a post- tropical cyclone.
Lows will be a little cooler for a portion of the FA, with widespread 50s expected for much of the region.
The center of the upper-level low pressure system over the Northern Rockies and the eastern CONUS will continue to weaken today. Afternoon highs will peak into the low to mid 90s areawide.
Currently have an upper low extending from the Northern Intermountain into the Great Basin with another upper low over the Southern Mid Atlantic States. At the surface, cold front extends from northern MN into western Nebraska. We should see rain coverage decrease from west to east Thu afternoon with mainly southeast KS having the high rain chances Thu night. For this weekend we are currently going with highs around seasonal averages with maxes topping out in the low and mid 80s.
- Weekend cold front to deliver breezy conditions and a chance of mainly mountain showers High pressure over the region will bring warm and dry conditions through the work week.
(Today and tonight) Upper level troughing that has been persistent over the region for the past several days will continue to influence our weather pattern for today. However, the trough will begin to lift north through the day, allowing our surface winds to become more easterly. The more easterly flow will likely prevent widespread dew points in the upper 50s, which in turn will allow our overnight temperatures to return to more seasonable values in the mid-60s and afternoon highs in the low 90s.
A weak low level anticyclone across the eastern Great Lakes will continue to be the dominant weather feature locally. Weak easterly low level flow in southeast portion of this anticyclone is advecting some slightly higher amounts of near sfc moisture from the eastern Great Lakes westward across NW Ohio/far NE IN this morning. Upper level longwave ridging across the western Great Lakes will shift slightly eastward into the southern Great Lakes by this evening and will continue to provide broad weak synoptic scale mid level subsidence. Mostly sunny skies and highs in the mid to upper 80s are expected, with slightly cooler conditions near Lake Michigan vicinity given expectation of another lake breeze development.
Do still see some clouds over the area that are pushing off of the low to our east, but assuming those clear out, watch out for fog overnight. More of the same can be expected Thursday with temperatures ever so slightly higher as the ridge aloft continues its push east.
104 AM EDT Wed Sep 17 2025 Low pressure will drift along the Mid-Atlantic coast today, then linger while weakening, through mid-week. High pressure will otherwise extend across the eastern US. The low pressure over the Mid-Atlantic will weaken but linger today and tonight well to our NE. The flow around the low pressure will continue to bring considerable cloudiness and spotty light rain to areas along the NC/VA border to near the Triangle this morning. Dry and warmer. Low pressure to the NE of the region will dissipate leaving high pressure in control. Highs return to the lower 80s NE ranging into the upper 80s south.
Arizona will remain under an area of high pressure, and a trough will be located to our west.
This will be due to generally robust precipitable water values interacting with daytime heating, the east-to-west migration of the daytime seabreeze boundary, and a series of disturbances that will "ridge ride" 500 mb high pressure centered more or less over northwest Mexico. Finally, with continued slightly elevated seas, a Moderate Risk of rip currents is likely for the beaches along the Lower Texas Coast.
Meanwhile, an upper-level ridge was also in place across the region. As a trough over the northern High Plains drifts southward tonight the ridge will start to break down.
218 AM MDT Wed Sep 17 2025 - Showers and storms develop over the higher terrain along and north of I-70 during the afternoon today. Precipitation has ended across the region as the nearby low pressure system continues to move east of the Rockies, as shown by satellite imagery. Showers and thunderstorms are possible today, primarily north of I-70, where moisture lingers and a lobe of energy off of the low pressure system moves through.
Cooler temperatures and generally light winds are expected to close out the week. An elongated, but narrow, ridge of high pressure remains situated over the southwest today.
Synoptically, a trough and upper low over the central and northern Plains will lift north today. Low pressure will remain nearly stationary across the northern Plains through the week, before making better progress to the north this weekend as the trough opens up to the flow across Canada.
220 AM MDT Wed Sep 17 2025 KEY MESSAGES: - Low pressure circulation will sweep through southern and eastern portions of our region through Thursday with minor chances for rain along the MT/ND boarder.
1118 PM MDT Tue Sep 16 2025 - Showers and storms develop over the higher terrain along and north of I-70 Wednesday afternoon. A low pressure system remains centered over Wyoming this afternoon with a front draped over northeast Utah. High temperatures tomorrow will be a handful of degrees cooler behind the front. High pressure building over the Great Basin Thursday will dry things out further. Some moisture glancing the northern mountains spilling over the ridge will produce some cloud cover and perhaps a stray shower early Thursday morning, but mostly dry conditions will prevail Thursday.
(Today through Thursday) Today: Additional subtle impulses aloft will drift southward atop our region today, guided by a low pressure system over coastal Virginia. In the low levels, a broad pattern of confluence will continue. The Mid-Atlatic low pressure system will zip northeastward Wednesday night into Thursday as it is absorbed by a larger trough to its north. High temperatures will run between 5-10 degrees above seasonal normals, with upper 80s to lower 90s forecast for today and more- so in the lower 90s for Thursday.
A broader trough moving into the region from the northeast Pacific will bring better rain chances towards the end of the week and into the weekend, especially near the coast and across southwest Washington. However the cooler air will result in daytime highs in the upper 60s to low 70s along the coast and upper 70s to low 80s inland. Thursday looks to be a few degrees cooler with daytime highs in the the upper 60s to low 70s along the coast and upper 70s to low 80s inland. As the weekend approaches, a better opportunity for much cooler temperatures and precipitation presents itself.
1250 AM EDT Wed Sep 17 2025 High pressure will continue to bring warming temperatures and dry weather conditions to the region this week.
A deep upper trough approaching slowly from the west will support off-and-on scattered to numerous showers/thunderstorms across the region today through Thursday night. TEMPERATURES: Seasonably warm temperatures look to persist today, with forecast highs in the low 80s to low 90s, warmest over far southeast Kansas.
Discussion: A closed low near the Chesapeake Bay will start to track farther east today and tomorrow, with a ridge over the MS Valley region. This pattern will be pretty static through the rest of the week, with the ridge building slightly toward the east. Under the building ridge, temperatures will be well above normal, with highs mainly in the 80s to near 90 in southern sections. The ridge loosens its grip on the area over the weekend as a trough over the northern Plains approaches the Great Lakes and OH Valley. However, we will likely remain dry through the weekend as the pattern will not have good moisture flux off the Gulf due to an E-W 850 mb ridge axis across AL/GA/SC.
The storm system is expected to push east this evening making way for high pressure with dry and warm conditions on Thursday.
642 AM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025 - Low pressure will move into the area today and begin a prolonged period of wet conditions that will persist through the end of the work week. Low pressure anchored on that front is working across far southeast SD this morning. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms have been working toward the northwest across central SD near the vicinity of that trough early this morning with more widespread showers and storms building across NE into far southeast SD. Low pressure at the sfc and aloft will become a nearly stacked system over the next 24 hours across northern NE into southern SD.
652 AM EDT Wed Sep 17 2025 Upper low to our northeast will continue to move away from the region today. Key message(s): - Upper low moves away from the region - Continued warm and dry The upper low over southeast VA and eastern NC will gradually lift away from the region today. Skies become mostly clear overnight allowing for reasonable radiational cooling and overnight lows expected in the lower 60s.
Cooler and calmer conditions will resume across western Washington through the remainder of the week as onshore flow returns.
621 AM EDT Wed Sep 17 2025 Low pressure will move away from the East Coast today, allowing warm and dry weather to develop as high pressure builds in.
626 AM EDT Wed Sep 17 2025 (Today and tonight) Upper level troughing that has been persistent over the region for the past several days will continue to influence our weather pattern for today. However, the trough will begin to lift north through the day, allowing our surface winds to become more easterly. The more easterly flow will likely prevent widespread dew points in the upper 50s, which in turn will allow our overnight temperatures to return to more seasonable values in the mid-60s and afternoon highs in the low 90s.