Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Radar depicts isolated showers occurring along the ILX/LOT border region this evening, along a NW-SE moisture gradient within in a region of weak DCVA and warm advection north of the decaying circulation of post-tropical cyclone Francine. Ratzer Post Tropical Cyclone Francine will continue to decay across the mid-Mississippi River Valley through this weekend. Have maintained some 10-15% PoPs west of I-39 as a couple weak inverted trough axes may provide subtle forcing during the afternoon, but overall conditions favor a dry forecast for the area through the weekend. Ongoing tropical activity in the southeastern states and a prominent ridge over the Great Lakes region has continued to foster mid-level blocking across the central and eastern CONUS.
Clouds and breezy winds are keeping temperatures elevated at the current hour and warmer than previously forecast. The rain event thus far has been unfortunately disappointing for most, and the high-res guidance keeps up the downer forecast.
1229 AM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024 (Tonight through Saturday night) Above average temperatures and humid conditions will trend through the short term period with ridging aloft and the modest southerly winds.
Otherwise it continues to look like 500mb ridging over the eastern United States with southwest flow to the west.
Drier air was still noted on water vapor imagery wrapping around the low and across our CWA from the northwest. Temperatures will top out near normal this afternoon across our southern most zones but be cooler than normal central and north. Temperatures tonight will bottom out again slightly warmer than normal. The aforementioned stationary remnant low will help introduce isolated/scattered showers and storms across our forecast area, with higher PoP chances (between 60-85%) along the northeastern quadrants of the region as areas of instability pinwheel around the low centered over TN.
The low-level wind profile has also weakened considerably compared to Thu/Thu night, with the main impact/threat evolving into a localized flooding concern. Current temps in the lower/mid 70s also look to drop more into the mid/upper 60s overnight. The trough/convergence axis shifts slightly southwest late Saturday night into Sunday, along with low level stream flow advecting slightly drier air into our northeast AL and southern TN counties.
138 AM EDT Sat Sep 14 2024 High pressure over the New England states extends toward the Great Lakes region.
Winds are varying a bit as the rain approaches, but there should be a tendency towards prevailing south-southeast winds through much of the TAF period as low pressure redevelops in the western Dakotas.
Most likely scenario is for stratus to build down over the higher elevations of the Ozark Plateau. This will have a big impact on highs and have gone closer to the cooler NBM25th percentile with highs in the 70s east of Springfield with temps increasing into the 80s west towards Joplin. Areas east of Highway 65 have a 30-60% chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms during the afternoon hours with the highest chances across the West Plains region.
- Quiet Pattern in Place Tonight through Saturday Night High pressure will continue to bring dry weather to the area through Saturday night.
(Today through Sunday) Modest ridging will lie over the area in the short term.
146 AM MDT Sat Sep 14 2024 Satellite imagery shows a dry westerly flow over the region, while upstream there is a deepening trof along the BC/WA coast. While the Pacific trof will impact us eventually, the weekend will be dry and warmer as the flow aloft backs from W to SW over the next 36 hours. Fire weather concerns have alleviated with the recent cool/wet weather, but we will see progressively lower humidities along with the warmer temps the next two days.
Pieces of energy were moving through the cyclonic flow on the S side of the upper low which was over Saskatchewan this afternoon. W flow on Saturday will become SW Saturday night ahead of the next trough along the Pacific NW coast. Arthur Heights build over the area on Sunday, in response to troughing over the West Coast.
Upper level high pressure will remain entrenched over the area and inhibit any significant airmass change for the region through this time, with temperatures running warmer than normal. Low temperatures will range from the middle 50s to the middle 60s with warmer temperatures across the south where there is more cloud cover in place. Overnight lows will remain comfortable and drop to the lower 60s over northern Kentucky and the Dayton, Columbus, and Cincy metro areas, upper 50s for the remainder of the CWA. On Sunday morning, an upper high will remain in place over the eastern Great Lakes region, with lower heights over the southeastern CONUS. The Ohio Valley will still be in a dry and stagnant pattern as a result of the high, with generally easterly flow and very little chance for precipitation.
Upper level high pressure will remain entrenched over the area and inhibit any significant airmass change for the region through this time, with temperatures running warmer than normal. A blocking pattern to continue with a large mid and upper level ridge remaining over the eastern Great Lakes into New England. Expect skies to become mostly clear tonight with lows from the upper 50s to the lower 60s. A blocking pattern to continue with a large expansive mid and upper level ridge centered over the eastern Great Lakes into New England. This ridge will keep the area dry with a band of mid level clouds across the far southwest decreasing in coverage. High pressure anchored across the Northeast CONUS is expected to keep dry weather over the ILN area.
(Today through Sunday Night) What was once tropical cyclone Francine has weakened to just a remnant low but will continue to bring unsettled conditions to primarily the eastern part of the CWA through the weekend. Precipitation chances will be much higher on Sunday and extend to the majority of the CWA as guidance continues to show a substantial slug of moisture wrapping around the low.
Discussion: The short term will feature a rex block across the eastern CONUS as an upper low (remnants of what was once Francine) spins away over the MS/AL region, beneath a large scale ridge centered over the Great Lakes area.
The clouds have helped keep readings cooler than the past few days over the eastern half of the state. Therefore, have maintained PoPs in those areas along with warmer overnight temperatures with the increasing overcast conditions.
Forcing for showers through tonight comes from a few sources, including piece of energy that broke northward off of remnants of Francine, weak height falls with approaching northern branch trough along with jet streak from central MN to northwest Ontario. Greatest chances for showers and a rumble of thunder tonight will be over the north closer weak troughing and subtle jet streak.
1122 PM MDT Fri Sep 13 2024 Updated Aviation Discussion Overall quiet and dry conditions are expected this weekend as weak upper level ridging builds in over the Northern Rockies, with temperatures returning near to slightly above normal for Saturday and Sunday. weak, upper level ridging will continue to build in behind the departing upper level trough/closed low this evening and through the weekend. High temperatures beneath the aforementioned ridge this weekend will be near to slightly above normal, with the warmest temperatures occurring on Sunday. By Sunday evening a push of Pacific moisture within a region of warm air advection ahead of a digging upper level trough over the Eastern Pacific will overspread the Northern Rockies, which will bring better chances for more widespread showers and thunderstorms to Southwest through North Central Montana.
Lots of upper ridging over the region with a very weak upper impulse dropping south out of Canada within the eastern portion of the upper ridging could support an isolated shower, mainly in areas of terrain. Sunny again Sunday with temperatures a degree or two cooler due to a slight cooling of the boundary layer and perhaps a few more convective clouds around, and perhaps a very isolated shower.
A trough over the Gulf of Alaska will move south along the British Columbia coast and across the WA/OR coast through Sunday. As the trough approaches, the flow aloft shifts to the west and then southwest. Much of the energy from the upper level trough moves south along the Pacific NW coast, moving into northern CA by Sunday night. Little sensible weather impacts expected on Sunday for the Columbia Basin, but as the trough moves south along the coast, a deformation zone sets up over the Blue Mountains on Sunday morning, bringing light rain showers, with precipitation amounts generally under 0.
Highs today and tomorrow will range in the low to upper-80s, with lows tonight ranging in the mid to upper-60s.
910 PM MDT Fri Sep 13 2024 Overall quiet and dry conditions are expected this weekend as weak upper level ridging builds in over the Northern Rockies, with temperatures returning near to slightly above normal for Saturday and Sunday. weak, upper level ridging will continue to build in behind the departing upper level trough/closed low this evening and through the weekend. High temperatures beneath the aforementioned ridge this weekend will be near to slightly above normal, with the warmest temperatures occurring on Sunday. By Sunday evening a push of Pacific moisture within a region of warm air advection ahead of a digging upper level trough over the Eastern Pacific will overspread the Northern Rockies, which will bring better chances for more widespread showers and thunderstorms to Southwest through North Central Montana.
1046 PM MDT Fri Sep 13 2024 - Warmer and drier conditions through Saturday with little precipitation expected.
(Today through Sunday) Upper level ridging today relents a little to allow a remnant upper level impulse from eastern Pacific Tropical Storm Ileana to drift over our area tonight and Sunday. Otherwise, lower level thermal ridging and southerly flow continue.
Surface analysis shows now post-tropical cyclone Francine meandering over N AR this afternoon, while associated low pressure aloft provides a W to NW flow and dry air overhead. As we head into the weekend, the low pressure area associated with the remnants of Francine will continue to meander to our N/NE, both at the surface and aloft. However, moisture will quickly return at the surface as winds become a bit more W to SW, with dewpoints rebounding into the low to mid 70s by mid-day tomorrow. Temperature wise, tomorrow looks to be a warm one, with highs in the low to possibly mid 90s areawide.
By Sunday, a low pressure system will approach the Pacific Northwest, placing the Northern Rockies under a southwesterly flow.
500mb analysis shows the resident ridge centered over northern Lake Huron is steady at 591 dam this morning. The remnants of Francine have stalled over the lower Mississippi Valley and local impacts will be limited to just intervals of cirrus at times today. Little change to the thermal profile compared to yesterday offers a similar forecast today with highs in the lower to mid 80s with mostly sunny skies after patchy morning fog mixes out. Lofted wildfire smoke continues to gyre over the region within the anticyclone - this will remain well above the surface and pose little threat to air quality at the surface. Nearly identical conditions on Sunday as the upper ridge eases southeast into the eastern Great Lakes.
08Z water vapor imagery depicts the system associated with remnants of Francine still spinning over the lower Mississippi River Valley, while broad cyclonic flow remains over the Pacific Northwest into the Northern Plains. Easterly sfc winds are slowly advecting that moisture into the area, though the high clouds are also slow to move in as they are just east of the CWA as of 0730Z. Another longwave trough is progged to amplify and deepen over the western US Sunday.
610 AM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024 (Today through Sunday) Upper level ridging today relents a little to allow a remnant upper level impulse from eastern Pacific Tropical Storm Ileana to drift over our area tonight and Sunday. Otherwise, lower level thermal ridging and southerly flow continue.
Upper level trough over the area today will move south Sunday night.
613 AM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024 (Today through Sunday) Modest ridging will lie over the area in the short term.
629 AM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024 (Today through Sunday Night) Ridging over Texas will continue to bring relatively benign weather over the weekend.
629 AM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024 (Today through Sunday Night) What was once tropical cyclone Francine has weakened to just a remnant low but will continue to bring unsettled conditions to primarily the eastern part of the CWA through the weekend. Precipitation chances will be much higher on Sunday and extend to the majority of the CWA as guidance continues to show a substantial slug of moisture wrapping around the low.
641 AM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024 (Today and tonight) Mid/upper level ridge will remain in place across the region this weekend, which will result in dry conditions with above normal temperatures again today. The high clouds may temper temperatures a bit but afternoon highs are still expected to top out in the mid and upper 90s, with a few readings around 100 degrees across the Big Country. Temperatures will be a few degrees cooler tonight, as high clouds begin to decrease across the area, with lows mainly in the lower 70s.
(Today and tonight) Mid/upper level ridge will remain in place across the region this weekend, which will result in dry conditions with above normal temperatures again today. The high clouds may temper temperatures a bit but afternoon highs are still expected to top out in the mid and upper 90s, with a few readings around 100 degrees across the Big Country. Temperatures will be a few degrees cooler tonight, as high clouds begin to decrease across the area, with lows mainly in the lower 70s.
This could slow temperatures a bit but still expect some afternoon clearing due to subsidence from from strong high pressure over the northeastern states. Good radiational cooling conditions combined with a drier airmass supports temperatures falling into the low-mid 60s tonight.
Upper level high pressure will remain entrenched over the area and inhibit any significant airmass change for the region through this time, with temperatures running warmer than normal. A blocking pattern to continue with a large expansive mid and upper level ridge centered over the eastern Great Lakes into New England. This ridge will keep the area dry with a band of mid level clouds across the far southwest decreasing in coverage. High pressure anchored across the Northeast CONUS is expected to keep dry weather over the ILN area.
Although there won't be a downsloping aspect to the surface winds for much of the area unlike yesterday, 850mb temperatures look to be at least a few degrees warmer which should result in similar high temperatures for much of the Panhandles. although the winds will mostly be favored for heat enhancement, it is getting later in the year thus there may not be as much heating within the Canyon due to the lower sun angle. Dry air aloft, which was originally brought in to the Gulf of Mexico from the cyclonic flow around the low pressure stuck in the mid- South, will get advected into the Texas Panhandle today.
Saturday through Sunday Saturday, quiet and warmer than normal weather expected throughout the day with a few breezy winds at 10-20 mph, gusts up to 25 mph over parts of central Nevada. Sunday, the quiet start to the day will change as an upper level low makes its way across the state, bringing in increasing chances for isolated showers and thunderstorms by the afternoon. Temperatures cool down from the passing cold front with highs in the 70s throughout the region with a few valley spots still reaching into the 80s. The cold front will impact overnight lows as it passes further into the state, making lows drop into the low 40s to upper 30s for higher elevations.
653 AM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024 (Today through Sunday) The remnant low of Francine continues to rotate over the Lower Mississippi River Valley today, slightly drifting to the east, but with its center remaining to the west of Central Alabama. As the upper low drifts back westward tonight and tomorrow, the axis will remain over the area, allowing for continued showers and storms. As the upper low weakens, winds aloft have also weakened.
502 AM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024 (Today through Sunday afternoon) WV imagery shows weak ridging this morning over West Texas and Southeast New Mexico. For those who like cooler weather, however, these clouds will decrease thicknesses a bit today, shaving a couple of degrees off of yesterday's highs. still 2-3 F cooler than this morning's. Sunday, an upper trough makes landfall on the west coast in the PacNW, nudging the ridge east and diminishing thicknesses further. This will leave afternoon highs around 10 F above normal, but a couple of degrees cooler than this afternoon.
Otherwise, high pressure across the region will allow for light north winds areawide. Latest satellite imagery shows a mix of high clouds streaming northeast along the mid-level ridge across Texas and lower clouds across northeast Louisiana and south Arkansas in response to the remnants of Francine. Highs today and tomorrow will range in the low to upper-80s, with lows tonight ranging in the mid to upper-60s.
215 PM EDT Sat Sep 14 2024 High pressure will remain in place into mid-week, bringing above average temperatures and dry, sunny weather.
If we can't get rainfall, then cooler temperatures will have to do and we will enjoy what we can get. Less clouds tomorrow means more heating and highs should be a few degrees warmer and any rain chances should be gone.
Cloud cover will continue to persist over the region this afternoon as moisture increases along the closed low. By this evening into the overnight, showers will continue to be likely in the northeast as the low continues to produce decent moisture along its circulation.
210 PM EDT Sat Sep 14 2024 High pressure will remain in place into mid-week, bringing above average temperatures and dry, sunny weather.
120 PM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024 (Today through Sunday) The remnant low of Francine continues to rotate over the Lower Mississippi River Valley today, slightly drifting to the east, but with its center remaining to the west of Central Alabama. As the upper low drifts back westward tonight and tomorrow, the axis will remain over the area, allowing for continued showers and storms. As the upper low weakens, winds aloft have also weakened.
1228 PM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024 (Today through Sunday afternoon) WV imagery shows weak ridging this morning over West Texas and Southeast New Mexico. For those who like cooler weather, however, these clouds will decrease thicknesses a bit today, shaving a couple of degrees off of yesterday's highs. still 2-3 F cooler than this morning's. Sunday, an upper trough makes landfall on the west coast in the PacNW, nudging the ridge east and diminishing thicknesses further. This will leave afternoon highs around 10 F above normal, but a couple of degrees cooler than this afternoon.
Remnant moisture and upper-level forcing from TC Francine remains stalled across the Lower Mississippi River Valley in the absence of any appreciable steering flow to advect it east. As a result of this weak confluence in the low-levels, a narrow plume of moisture stretches across western and central Missouri stretching down through the Ozarks. This will not only shunt the 15-40% shower and thunderstorm chances west of the Mississippi River, but will also allow for more abundant sunshine (and warmer temperatures) further east. That said, those along and east of the river have the best chances of reaching the mid/upper 80s during the afternoon with slightly cooler temperatures further west.
Sunday will be another warm day as the upper level flow becomes more southwesterly ahead of a potent upper low moving into the Pacific NW.
1215 PM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024 (Today through Sunday Night) What was once tropical cyclone Francine has weakened to just a remnant low but will continue to bring unsettled conditions to primarily the eastern part of the CWA through the weekend. Precipitation chances will be much higher on Sunday and extend to the majority of the CWA as guidance continues to show a substantial slug of moisture wrapping around the low.
Upper level troughiness will be in place today, with the better focus to the west of the area. So overall the main chances will be on the lower side, 20 to 30 percent chance, and mostly west of the James River. Warm overnight lows in the low to mid 60s, generally 5-10 degrees above normal, are expected with southerly surface flow continuing. The exception could be near and east of the Buffalo Ridge into northwest IA where model soundings indicate the weakest capping. Southerly flow will be fairly strong with humidity a bit on the higher side, dew points in the lower to mid 60s, with highs topping out in the mid to upper 80s.
The overall track of the low remains unchanged, and precipitation chances in every part of our forecast area are at least 30% Sunday evening.
Despite KBYX struggling to detecting anything in the way of shower activity currently over the Florida Keys and the adjacent nearshore and offshore coastal waters, GOES-16 visibile satellite imagery is already detecting bubbling cumuli along and just north of the Lower Keys. Ponding on the typically favored roadways will peak at the times of the morning higher high tide in the Lower and Middle Keys, with little tidal cycle relief in the Upper Keys.
331 PM EDT Sat Sep 14 2024 Persistent high pressure will keep dry and warm conditions across the region. High pressure at the surface and aloft centered to the northeast of the region will remain in place.
(This evening through Sunday) The wet pattern continues for the short term with a low pressure and associated boundary that will linger along the coast with moisture continuing to stream up and around it into C AL. In the upper levels, an upper low is still present across the SE US but will continue to slowly weaken through Sunday.
116 PM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024 (Today through Sunday) Upper level ridging today relents a little to allow a remnant upper level impulse from eastern Pacific Tropical Storm Ileana to drift over our area tonight and Sunday. Otherwise, lower level thermal ridging and southerly flow continue.
Thicker cloud cover is noted across portions of northwest AR in closer proximity to the remnant circulation of Francine, which will keep these areas a bit cooler today, generally in the low to mid 80s. Elsewhere, more abundant sunshine will allow for warmer readings, with most locations near 90 F this afternoon.
Little low and mid-level cloud cover today speaks to the lack of moisture throughout the column as the area remains situated between a mid-level wave lifting northeastward toward Minnesota and the remnants of Post Tropical Cyclone Francine over the mid-Mississippi River Valley. Kluber No forecast concerns through the TAF period as high pressure will remain over the Great Lakes.
Her weakening upper low sits just off to our southwest and it continues to pull plenty of moisture into the area.
High amplitude, long wavelength ridging will remain centered over the Great Lakes region throughout the period. 500mb analysis shows the resident ridge centered over northern Lake Huron is steady at 591 dam this morning. The remnants of Francine have stalled over the lower Mississippi Valley and local impacts will be limited to just intervals of cirrus at times today. Little change to the thermal profile compared to yesterday offers a similar forecast today with highs in the lower to mid 80s with mostly sunny skies after patchy morning fog mixes out. Lofted wildfire smoke continues to gyre over the region within the anticyclone - this will remain well above the surface and pose little threat to air quality at the surface. Nearly identical conditions on Sunday as the upper ridge eases southeast into the eastern Great Lakes.