Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Heights fall by evening as the deepening upper low moves across northern Minnesota and this, along with sfc heating and low level moisture advection will result in 2000 to 3000 J/KG of CAPE across the southwest forecast area by early evening. Storm mode most likely will be evolving from discrete cells to quasi-linear after sunset with embedded mesocyclones and downburst/surging winds. Forecast thermodynamic profiles Friday evening akin to the High Plains will feature steep lapse rates from the surface to 600-500 mb, with the well mixed diurnal boundary layer in the lower atmosphere nearly the same potential temperature as an EML in the mid-levels which advects in late in the day.
111 AM CDT Thu May 15 2025 Upper ridging has kept quiet conditions across the region this evening after a near record warmth day in some areas. Overnight, the upper ridge will start to push east of the region, transitioning us to southwesterly flow aloft. Otherwise, expect mostly cloudy skies to continue overnight, with lows in the low to mid 70s.
1228 AM CDT Thu May 15 2025 - Weak cold front passes Thursday with low thunderstorm chances southeast OK / northwest AR. A weak cold front remains on track to move into parts of northeast Oklahoma toward daybreak, leading to a drop off near and behind the front late tonight.
1020 PM CDT Wed May 14 2025 Upper ridging has kept quiet conditions across the region this evening after a near record warmth day in some areas. Overnight, the upper ridge will start to push east of the region, transitioning us to southwesterly flow aloft. Otherwise, expect mostly cloudy skies to continue overnight, with lows in the low to mid 70s.
Warmer temperatures expected through Friday with cooling over the weekend. The last of the very windy days will come to an end this evening as the low to our north weakens and moves out of the region. As the low crosses to the north of the area, we should see mostly dry conditions. Winds remain gusty this afternoon, especially in areas along and north of the higher terrain.
- Weak cold front passes today with low shower and thunderstorm chances southeast OK / northwest AR. (Today) A weak cold front is just about to enter the northwest corner of our forecast area early this morning.
- High pressure settled over the region is yielding a prolonged period of hot and humid weather.
Dew points are in the lower 70s. That is, expect quiet weather, lots of sunshine, and warm temperatures with daytime highs in the mid to upper 80s with dew points in the lower to mid 70s.
Water vapor imagery this afternoon highlights a mid/upper trough tracking into the Central Rockies as strong flow persists over the southern CONUS. Conditions continue to look dry and seasonably warm to close out the work week, with high temperatures anticipated to reach the low to middle 80s Thursday and Friday.
A cooldown occurs this weekend, with gusty winds over the mountain ridges and peaks, as well as the Kern County desert.
* Another weekend storm will impact the Sierra and western Nevada bringing an increased likelihood of cooler conditions, gusty winds, rain and mountain snow showers. * High pressure will return to the area today through Friday. We're looking at readings in the low to mid-70s for western NV, eastern Lassen, and lower elevations of Alpine and Mono counties. For the eastern Sierra communities, highs will generally be in the low to upper 60s.
332 AM EDT Thu May 15 2025 Broad high pressure will remain across the area into the weekend.
Recent HRRR runs continue to expand this activity this evening as a warm front lifts northward, with more of the focus across areas east of I-55 mainly in the 9 pm to 2 am time frame. Highs tomorrow will warm into the low 90s. Overnight, as the warm front moves northward across central IL, a weak line of showers, and maybe some thunderstorms, are to develop.
1121 PM CDT Wed May 14 2025 Updated at 1120 PM CDT Wed May 14 2025 - Warmer weather is expected through the rest of the week.
That mixes out by late morning and southerly flow will bring in some warmer conditions with mostly sunny skies. Some locations in the south will warm into the lower 90s as low-level ridging centers over the northern Gulf. Highs on Friday will be a degree or two warmer than today with readings in the upper 80s north to low 90s south.
1226 AM CDT Thu May 15 2025 - Dry and quiet conditions are expected to continue Thursday with temperatures slightly cooler thanks to an early morning front.
Updated at 245 AM CDT Thu May 15 2025 - Slightly cooler temperatures are expected today, thanks to the Pacific front pushing through the region.
A cold front will push southeast through the area Thursday, encountering strong instability over the far southeastern CWA. The cold front will shift back north late Thursday night into Friday, leading to a threat for severe storms during the day Friday. Uncertainty in this threat exists due to potential for morning precip to reduce instability and unknowns in how far north the warm front will lift. Greatest confidence at this point is in seeing significant destabilization with strong deep layer shear and convection initiating on the warm front as it lifts through and on a dry line just west of the CWA. Tornados will be possible given the potential for interaction of the warm front, but most of the warm sector will not have particularly good shear profiles for tornadoes.
(Thursday through Friday night) Hot and dry weather pattern in store as High pressure ridge axis remains across the Central/Southern FL peninsula and West to Southwest steering flow keeps the East Coast sea breeze pinned near the Atlantic Coast. This will allow for Max temps to reach near record levels into the lower/middle 90s both days, along with some upper 90s possible along the I-95 and US-17 corridors Friday afternoon just to the west of the pinned East Coast sea breeze front, along with peak heat index readings around 100F.
(Today through Friday Night) High pressure will mostly remain in control across the CWFA through the short term period. Aloft, a fairly robust upper high will reside over the central Gulf. With the higher heights and thicknesses, daytime high temperatures are forecast to climb into the lower 90s, especially along and north of I10/12. The cooler locations will be right on the coast as low level flow over the slightly cooler water surface keeps these locations in the middle and upper 80s.
Otherwise, west and southwesterly winds prevail through the period as upper level ridging develops over the southeast US. This will continue the increasing trend in temperatures with highs today reaching the low 90s and overnight lows mainly in the 65 to 70 range.
In the wake of a cold frontal passage this morning, elevated north winds below between 30 and 50 mph.
Water vapor imagery at this hour depicts a strengthening upper low over the Intermountain West. This trough is becoming increasingly negatively tilted with time as an associated upper jet near its base emerges onto the central Plains. As the trough pivots, it is supporting CI in the vicinity of a low-level baroclinic zone across western/central SD. The upper wave transitions to an elongated west-east oriented trof that gradually strengthens and closes over the Upper Midwest by tomorrow night, which should prolong potential for windy conditions and lingering shower activity. The cyclone slowly departs on Friday, but gusty winds may continue through early in the day as a relatively tight pressure gradient persists.
205 AM EDT Thu May 15 2025 A few showers and perhaps a storm will remain possible overnight as an upper level trough sweeps east of the area. Ridging will then bring warmer temperatures late this week. Cooler temperatures and drier weather will follow heading into the weekend. This will weaken the cap and allow for showers and storms to develop along and ahead of a surface warm front.
(Today and tonight) A cold front will continue to make its way through the area this morning, which will knock high temperatures down 10-15 degrees from yesterday's high temperatures. The aforementioned cold front will weaken as it pushes just south of the Red River, so we may see weak southerly winds return across southern portions of the area.
For today, a mid/upper ridge axis centered over the northern Gulf will amplify and build north into the area later today.
Deep layer dry air and the building ridge will result in benign conditions through the period. Highs today will climb into the low 90s across interior locations and upper 80s along the coasts.
pdf Drier high pressure continues as an upper level ridge begins to build over the area.
626 AM CDT Thu May 15 2025 - Weak cold front passes today with low shower and thunderstorm chances southeast OK / northwest AR. (Today) A weak cold front is just about to enter the northwest corner of our forecast area early this morning.
A highly anomalous thermal ridge will cross the forecast area today bringing unusually hot temperatures for mid May. Look for wind to slowly subside this evening as we cool off, but temperatures will remain very mild with lows struggling to fall into the lower to middle 70s by Friday morning.
601 AM CDT Thu May 15 2025 Updated at 600 AM CDT Thu May 15 2025 - Slightly cooler temperatures are expected today, thanks to the Pacific front pushing through the region.
Due to a more gradual temperature gradient on the leading edge of the front, expect high temperatures today to range in the low to mid 80s (only a few degrees cooler than yesterday). Areas near the northwestern corner of MO will see the lower end of that range. By this time, the weak cold front associated with the system will become more diffuse but will be draped somewhere across northeastern MO to southwestern MO.
Warmer temperatures expected through Friday, with cooling over the weekend.
Issued by National Weather Service Brownsville TX 614 AM CDT Thu May 15 2025 - High pressure settled over the region is yielding a prolonged period of hot and humid weather.
A weak upper level ridge remains overhead early this morning, but this will quickly be replaced as the next frontal system crosses Western Washington today.
743 AM EDT Thu May 15 2025 Precipitation chances are low to close out the work week, with much warmer temperatures expected. 500 hPa ridging is forecast to continue building into the area, with heights rising pretty significantly today.
720 AM EDT Thu May 15 2025 Broad high pressure will remain across the area into the weekend.
Quite the temperature gradient exists along the trough with upper 70s ahead and 50s behind. This frontal passage will keep temperatures much cooler than yesterday with highs in the low 80s.
349 AM MDT Thu May 15 2025 - Showers across the higher terrain today, with a focus on the central mountains.
Dry weather returns Friday as weak high pressure returns, with milder temperatures in the afternoon.
- Noticeably cooler temperatures will be in place the next few days, with highs in the 70s and 80s.
High pressure moves over the state bringing in drier conditions today.
621 AM CDT Thu May 15 2025 (Today through Friday Night) High pressure will mostly remain in control across the CWFA through the short term period. Aloft, a fairly robust upper high will reside over the central Gulf. With the higher heights and thicknesses, daytime high temperatures are forecast to climb into the lower 90s, especially along and north of I10/12. The cooler locations will be right on the coast as low level flow over the slightly cooler water surface keeps these locations in the middle and upper 80s.
The upper low that brought our windy conditions over the past few days is making its way across CONUS heading toward the Great Lakes region.
Temperatures at the island communities are already in the lower to mid 80s at this late morning hour. Combined with dew points in the lower to mid 70s, feels like temperatures are already near 90F. From synopsis, high pressure parked in the central North Atlantic will dominate the synoptic pattern for the next several days across the Keys coastal waters.
(This afternoon through Friday) To wrap up the week, an upper-level ridge continues build and push it's way further eastward into the Gulf. Meanwhile, at the surface, a body of high pressure parks over the Florida Peninsula. With deep layer dry air and the building ridge, warm and benign conditions will remain in South Florida through the remainder of the week. Temperatures will continue on an upward trend with highs reaching the low-to-mid 90s across the interior and upper 80s along the coasts this afternoon and Friday. Overnight lows will remain in the 70s along the coasts with slightly cooler conditions in the interior falling into the mid-60s.
- Warm temperatures through Friday will give way to cooler and drier conditions this weekend. The low level jet also increases this evening with 0-3 km storm-related helicity pushing 250-300 m2/s2 for a tornado threat. Much higher confidence in strong to severe storms breaking through the cap and tracking east through northern zones as weak height falls/cooling aloft clips the lower Great Lakes.
Issued by National Weather Service Brownsville TX 110 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025 - High pressure settled over the region is yielding a prolonged period of hot and humid weather.
329 PM EDT Thu May 15 2025 Warmer temperatures will be observed through the end of the week. Cooler temperatures and drier weather will follow heading into the weekend. This time, a warm front will initially be the focus of the forcing, starting across the Tri-State during the evening and lifting through the rest of the CWA just after midnight. Closed low will track across the Great Lakes to start the period which will push a cold front through the area.
- Showers continue on Friday with much cooler temperatures. Heading into Friday, look for continuing rainfall and much cooler temperatures.
1245 PM EDT Thu May 15 2025 (This afternoon through Friday) To wrap up the week, an upper-level ridge continues build and push it's way further eastward into the Gulf. Meanwhile, at the surface, a body of high pressure parks over the Florida Peninsula. With deep layer dry air and the building ridge, warm and benign conditions will remain in South Florida through the remainder of the week. Temperatures will continue on an upward trend with highs reaching the low-to-mid 90s across the interior and upper 80s along the coasts this afternoon and Friday. Overnight lows will remain in the 70s along the coasts with slightly cooler conditions in the interior falling into the mid-60s.
Conditions could be slick over the higher passes overnight.
137 PM EDT Thu May 15 2025 High pressure continues to drift east of New England through the week. The weekend will feature a slow moving low pressure system that will increase rain chances.
- Cooler with a threat for rain showers over northern Nebraska today and tonight.
141 PM EDT Thu May 15 2025 Upper-level ridging will continue building over the Gulf and then will hold over the region through the weekend and mid-week. At the surface, the Atlantic ridge axis over the peninsula will shift southward a bit late this weekend, with no impacts other than a wind shift to more variable. High pressure extending across Florida will support generally southwesterly flow north of Tampa Bay, and southerly to southeasterly flow from around Tampa Bay south, turning onshore with the afternoon sea breeze. This pattern will hold through the first half of the weekend, then the high shifts south resulting in more variable flow.
1243 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025 (Today through Friday Night) High pressure will mostly remain in control across the CWFA through the short term period. Aloft, a fairly robust upper high will reside over the central Gulf. With the higher heights and thicknesses, daytime high temperatures are forecast to climb into the lower 90s, especially along and north of I10/12. The cooler locations will be right on the coast as low level flow over the slightly cooler water surface keeps these locations in the middle and upper 80s.
Upper level ridging will maintain hot, near-record breaking temps through the end of the workweek. South-southeasterly winds allow for temperatures to remain elevated under upper level ridging. High temperatures tomorrow a touch cooler than today - but before you rejoice, south-southeasterly winds will transport some moisture back into the atmosphere.
227 PM EDT Thu May 15 2025 Precipitation chances are low to close out the work week, with much warmer temperatures expected. Upper ridging continues to build into the region from the west this afternoon.
1113 AM MDT Thu May 15 2025 - Highs today will be 5-10 degrees warmer than yesterday, with another round of widespread showers and thunderstorms this afternoon.
Expect some gusty winds this afternoon and evening with temperatures trending a few degrees warmer compared to yesterday's readings.
Drier and warmer weather persist through Friday, with occasionally breezy winds through the end of the week.
Westerly winds and relatively cooler temperatures (though still roughly 5-10 degrees above normal) have followed in the wake of this boundary.
1227 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025 Updated at 1222 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025 - Slightly cooler temperatures are expected today, thanks to the Pacific front pushing through the region.
Mild and dry conditions through the rest of today as high pressure slides across the area.
- Weak cold front passes today with low shower and thunderstorm chances southeast OK / northwest AR. (The rest of today ) At mid morning, a weak cold front was positioned from just west of Durant to near Stigler to the far northwest corner of Benton co Arkansas. Behind the front, continued mostly cloudy conditions and westerly winds will keep temperatures cooler this afternoon with highs in the upper 70s/lower 80s. For the morning update, have added adjustments to PoPs based on the movement/location of the front and also adjusted hour temp/dewpoint trends ahead of the front to hold on to the higher dewpoints longer.
1240 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025 - Weak cold front passes today with low shower and thunderstorm chances southeast OK / northwest AR. (The rest of today ) At mid morning, a weak cold front was positioned from just west of Durant to near Stigler to the far northwest corner of Benton co Arkansas. Behind the front, continued mostly cloudy conditions and westerly winds will keep temperatures cooler this afternoon with highs in the upper 70s/lower 80s. For the morning update, have added adjustments to PoPs based on the movement/location of the front and also adjusted hour temp/dewpoint trends ahead of the front to hold on to the higher dewpoints longer.
1204 PM EDT Thu May 15 2025 High pressure continues to drift east of New England through the week. The weekend will feature a slow moving low pressure system that will increase rain chances.
Some severe storms are likely with the passage of a cold front. A couple tornadoes also look possible, given effective SRH values around 200 m2/s2 over much of NE WI, and an effective warm front parked from the Fox Valley up through Marathon and Lincoln County. Very dry low levels and the high based nature of the storms will cause the potential for gusty winds with any storms that get established enough in the environment.
- High pressure settled over the region will continue to yield a prolonged period of hot and humid weather.
233 PM EDT Thu May 15 2025 Precipitation chances are low to close out the work week, with much warmer temperatures expected. Upper ridging continues to build into the region from the west this afternoon.
A weak upper ridge will support dry conditions today, except for a slight chance (less than 20 percent) of showers east of McCall.
1208 PM EDT Thu May 15 2025 Broad high pressure will remain across the area into the weekend.
Meanwhile aloft, water vapor imagery channels depict a broad ridge extending from the Yucatan Peninsula, northward to the Gulf coast, then eastward towards the Bahamas. When combined with dew points in the lower to mid 70s, heat indices are topping 90F at most island communities. In fact, most ensemble global numerical weather prediction guidance has the expansive ridge aloft strengthening, which via adiabatic sinking, may nudge temperatures upwards another couple of degrees by this weekend, with lows near 80F, and highs well into the upper 80s.
Strong high pressure surface and aloft will hold over the region through the weekend. Upper-level ridging will continue building over the Gulf and then will hold over the region through the weekend and mid-week. At the surface, the Atlantic ridge axis over the peninsula will shift southward a bit late this weekend, with no impacts other than a wind shift to more variable. High pressure extending across Florida will support generally southwesterly flow north of Tampa Bay, and southerly to southeasterly flow from around Tampa Bay south, turning onshore with the afternoon sea breeze. This pattern will hold through the first half of the weekend, then the high shifts south resulting in more variable flow.
- Showers continue on Friday with much cooler temperatures. Still forecasting gusty north- northwest winds 30-50 mph behind the departing low over eastern ND and Red River Valley, along with much cooler temperatures compared to recent days. Heading into Friday, look for continuing rainfall and much cooler temperatures.
1) Gusty winds over the weekend resulting in a locally elevated fire danger 2) Increased odds for above normal temperatures and widespread Weather Pattern Overview: Broad, weakly cyclonic flow lingers over the SW Conus as a closed, occluded low pressure system lifts into the Upper Midwest. The weakness left in the midtropospheric flow over the forecast area from this exiting system will quickly be filled over the weekend by a series of Pacific negative height anomalies intensifying into an amplified longwave western trough.
657 PM EDT Thu May 15 2025 (This afternoon through Friday) To wrap up the week, an upper-level ridge continues build and push it's way further eastward into the Gulf. Meanwhile, at the surface, a body of high pressure parks over the Florida Peninsula. With deep layer dry air and the building ridge, warm and benign conditions will remain in South Florida through the remainder of the week. Temperatures will continue on an upward trend with highs reaching the low-to-mid 90s across the interior and upper 80s along the coasts this afternoon and Friday. Overnight lows will remain in the 70s along the coasts with slightly cooler conditions in the interior falling into the mid-60s.
Scattered showers with a few lightning strikes are still ongoing over north central WI due to continued vorticity advection with the spinning closed low that is now over eastern North Dakota. A couple tornadoes also look possible, given effective SRH values around 200 m2/s2 over much of NE WI, and an effective warm front parked from the Fox Valley up through Marathon and Lincoln County. Very dry low levels and the high based nature of the storms will cause the potential for gusty winds with any storms that get established enough in the environment.
643 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025 (This evening through Friday Night) While a low pressure system is impacting the Great Lakes Region, an associated cold front has become quasi-stationary just northwest of the region. Either way, the rain showers will continue to be possible in our far northern zones through the evening and into the overnight hours before the cold front mixes out early Friday morning.
Deep layered ridging holds the reigns of our weather this evening. A surface Atlantic ridge reaching westward across the lower Florida Peninsula is keeping gentle broadly easterly breezes across the Keys. Meanwhile, mid level ridging is overhead with sharp ridging reaching northward into the Southeastern United States. Ridging will continue to dominate. Overnight lows will range in the upper 70s with dew points remaining in the lower 70s. Ridging will remain across South Florida resulting in gentle east to southeasterly breezes on Keys waters through the overnight period.
614 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025 - High pressure settled over the region will continue to yield a prolonged period of hot and humid weather.