Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Tweaked POPs a bit across the region as we are getting some decent coverage with showers and a few thunderstorms from Devils Lake to Thief River Falls to Breckenridge. Omega block continues across CONUS, with a deepened trough over the northern plains bringing instability to the area. The deepened trough lingers around the northern plains, but translates slightly south and east toward the Great Lakes for Wednesday. As we progress into the end of the work week and into the weekend the omega block takes a hold of the northern plains ushering in warmer and drier air.
355 PM PDT Tue May 27 2025 - Temperatures trending warmer with Minor and Moderate HeatRisk on Wednesday.
An upper level ridge will strengthen on Wednesday, bringing 5-10 degrees of warming from today. This will push high temperatures into the lower 90s in many lower valley locations, with Boise likely (75% chance) to reach 90 degrees for the first time this year.
Rain Showers Through Wednesday Initial analysis shows an area of high pressure over the Great Lakes while an upper level low pressure system moves over the northern Plains today. By Wednesday this high moves off to the east and the upper level low shifts over the Upper Midwest. As a result of the proximity of the high, the rain showers have not been as widespread due to the light northeast winds pulling some dry air into our area, especially over western Wisconsin. Given that an upper level low will be positioned just off to our northwest, much of the atmosphere will have weak flow aloft. Some of the short term guidance, such as the recent RAP runs keep us slightly cooler than today.
As we have seen the past couple of days, showers and storms that do develop will likely form slightly inland away from the west coast and move farther inland during the afternoon/evening with the highest coverage over the interior and east coast of Florida.
Some of the CAMs show some showers rotating into west central MN later tonight as another vort comes around the upper low. UPDATE Tweaked POPs a bit across the region as we are getting some decent coverage with showers and a few thunderstorms from Devils Lake to Thief River Falls to Breckenridge. Omega block continues across CONUS, with a deepened trough over the northern plains bringing instability to the area. The deepened trough lingers around the northern plains, but translates slightly south and east toward the Great Lakes for Wednesday. As we progress into the end of the work week and into the weekend the omega block takes a hold of the northern plains ushering in warmer and drier air.
328 AM EDT Wed May 28 2025 High pressure will slowly give way to a low pressure system tracking up the east coast later this week.
- Cooler temperatures with highs in the 60s to low 70s today and Thursday.
1214 AM EDT Wed May 28 2025 High pressure will cross the region overnight through Wednesday.
/22/ Tonight through Thursday: Little changes in the forecast as a ridge off to our east with entrench mid/upper level westerly flow continues to cause an overall stagnation in the airmass.
Issued by National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 1242 AM EDT Wed May 28 2025 - Cooler on Wednesday with scattered to numerous light showers spreading across the area.
A close off upper level low will continue its eastward trek through the day today. Weak instability on the western edge of the upper level low could promote diurnal showers (10 to 20 percent chance) and maybe an isolated thunderstorm over portions of the far southern James River Valley this afternoon. Behind the upper level low, a positively tilted ridge is expected to move over the northern Plains this evening through the end of the week.
A building area of high pressure will remain over the Pacific Northwest through Wednesday. This high pressure will be responsible for dry and increasingly warm weather. THe high will then move eastward as a upper level trough, weak disturbance moves across the area Wednesday night into Thursday. A ridge of high pressure then begins to build back into the area Thursday night. Winds will increase Thursday into Thursday evening as the trough moves overhead and could gust in the 25 to 35 mph range, especially in the normally breezier locations like the Columbia Basin, Kittitas Valley and the Blue Mountain Foothills. High temperatures on Wednesday will mainly be in the low to mid 90s, which is 15 to 20 degrees above normal.
1225 AM CDT Wed May 28 2025 - Cooler with thunderstorm chances each afternoon Wednesday through the weekend, some storms may become severe. - Warmer temperatures to return this weekend. A more broad upper trough should increase forcing parameters and bring higher chances overnight into Thursday.
Closed low centered across the Upper Midwest this morning is expected to shift eastwards towards the Ohio Valley leading to drier conditions than we have seen the last several days. Short wave rotating around the upper low situated in western Ontario this morning is expected to rotate through the Dakotas today and by the time it continues to move farther south the remainder of the upper low has shifted east.
- Unsettled pattern in the middle parts of this week, with chances of strong to severe thunderstorms along with cooler temperatures.
An upper ridge will build across the Pacific Northwest through Wednesday for dry, warmer weather. A frontal system will move through on Thursday for cooler temperatures and a chance for showers. Warmer, dry conditions return late in the week, followed by cooler weather again over the weekend.
(The rest of tonight) The mid level trough axis is sliding east of the region this evening, taking with it some spotty sprinkles/light showers that have been experienced this afternoon.
455 AM EDT Wed May 28 2025 High pressure will cross the region today, then exit across the Maritimes Thursday.
Given the gentle southeastward movement of the upper-low, the highest PoPs (still ~40- 60%) will be positioned across eastern Minnesota/western Wisconsin. The presence of cloud cover and shower chances will keep things cooler, in the 60s, today and tomorrow. We'll keep the chance for an isolated shower around Thursday afternoon, though the day should trend drier and warmer (70s). The dominating weather feature heading into the weekend will be the expansion of a ridge across much of central CONUS.
This upper low will drift south and east into Wisconsin by late today.
314 AM EDT Wed May 28 2025 High pressure will slowly give way to a low pressure system tracking up the east coast later this week.
For the remainder of the forecast, tonight through Thursday, dry weather will generally prevail, although some isolated convection far out west or over the lower Texas coastal waters cannot be entirely ruled out.
Isolated showers will be possible across the high terrain again on Wednesday.
pdf An inverted trough will be located over region Tonight. The combination of convergence along the trough, and lift provided by upper wave will continue the showers and storms across SE GA. High temperatures during this period for will be in the lower to mid 90s with overnight low temperatures dropping down into the lower 70s over inland areas and in the mid to upper 70s along the coast and for areas near the St Johns River.
An upper ridge will build across the Pacific Northwest through Wednesday for dry, warmer weather. A frontal system will move through on Thursday for cooler temperatures and a chance for showers. Warmer, dry conditions return late in the week through the weekend.
229 AM CDT Wed May 28 2025 - Severe thunderstorms tonight with heavy rainfall - Drier and warmer end of week into the weekend - A more stormy pattern returns for the next business week KDDC WSR-88D is showing early morning returns with light rain that has moved out from Colorado and across the Kansas plains. In addition, the hodograph in the lowest levels of the atmosphere also suggest that there is a tornado threat too.
- High pressure is expected to bring drier weather over the weekend. Shear in the low layers looks rather weak, however with the high instability, decent mid level lapse rates, Downdraft CAPE, and mid level shear, a few storms within the clusters may pulse up to become marginally severe with downburst winds and/or hail.
The low will lift north of the area Wednesday, with unsettled weather remaining in the forecast through end of the week.
Isolated showers will be possible across the high terrain again this afternoon, especially near the Utah border.
Rainfall totals for today through Thursday are expected to range from 1-3 inches with the highest amounts expected this morning. However, as a ridge builds across S TX, convective development will become increasingly suppressed. Models show low (10-20%) rain chances tonight due to the ridging aloft, PWATs decreasing to around 1. With the ridge aloft, temperatures will be warmer Thursday.
- Cooler than average temperatures expected this week, warming closer to average this weekend. With the axis of the low-level jet and greater instability to our west, this weakening trend is expected to continue, but at least isolated showers may linger into the morning across western/southwestern portions of the area.
313 AM CDT Wed May 28 2025 Weak ridging in the low to mid-levels to allow for stable conditions across the region overnight. Otherwise, overnight lows forecast to average in the lower 60s across the region. Light northwesterly flow and subtle surface ridging will give way to a weakening frontal boundary, ultimately maintaining fog potential overnight and setting the stage for convection to fire up along its edge on Wednesday and Thursday.
Current thinking that today will generally be dry is supported by latest guidance with warmer temperatures and dare I say, some sunshine for at least part of the state. Overall pattern remains progressive in nature with a sprawling upper low/upper trough over the Western Great Lakes/Eastern High Plains. Precipitation will become more widespread tonight and into Thursday as the aforementioned trough to our north starts to swing towards the south, spreading an area of enhanced lift over the state. This area of lift will be aided by a cold front later in the day and produce another batch of showers and isolated thunderstorms Thursday and Thursday night.
This area is being enhanced and supported by the jet exiting the base of the H3 upper trough. A short wave will eventually move through the base of this trough later today around noon kicking it east.
Highs return to near normal in the lower 80s. Highs reach into the lower 70s, with lows tonight falling into the 50s. Nonetheless, it will be another rainy and cooler day across the Ozarks, with highs in the upper 60s to near 70. The latest guidance also suggests the highest amounts will be focused east of Highway 65. Despite the recent wet conditions, widespread flooding is not expected at this time given the lower forecast amounts and progressive nature of the system.
1016 PM CDT Tue May 27 2025 Updated at 1012 PM CDT Tue May 27 2025 - Scattered storms continue to be possible the next few days - Higher confidence in showers and storms Wednesday night through early Thursday - Cooler than average temperatures expected.
746 AM EDT Wed May 28 2025 Light rain and/or drizzle continues today as a low pressure system tracks north.
Expect a similar pattern to yesterday with the south to southwest flow helping to drive the west coast sea breeze inland quickly taking the highest rain chances into the interior this afternoon and evening. As we have seen the past couple of days, showers and storms that do develop will likely form slightly inland away from the west coast and move farther inland during the afternoon/evening with the highest coverage over the interior and east coast of Florida.
Expectations is it will burn off quickly as it is sunny above the low lying fog layer. This upper low will drift south and east into Wisconsin by late today.
Warm again as high pressure rebuilds. Less than a 20% chance of thunderstorms along the high Cascades on Thursday.
649 AM EDT Wed May 28 2025 High pressure will cross the region today, then exit across the Maritimes Thursday.
As we move into the afternoon and early evening hours, yesterday's cool front will return northward as a warm front. In wake of the warm front, a quasi-zonal flow aloft pattern will develop over the region.
523 AM CDT Wed May 28 2025 - Severe thunderstorms tonight with heavy rainfall - Drier and warmer end of week into the weekend - A more stormy pattern returns for the next business week KDDC WSR-88D is showing early morning returns with light rain that has moved out from Colorado and across the Kansas plains. In addition, the hodograph in the lowest levels of the atmosphere also suggest that there is a tornado threat too.
639 AM EDT Wed May 28 2025 High pressure will slowly give way to a low pressure system tracking up the east coast today.
248 PM MDT Wed May 28 2025 - Cool weather and widespread precipitation continues this afternoon and evening, but warming and drying should begin on Thursday as high pressure moves over the region.
The hot humid southwesterly flow pattern (Regime 4) will persist through Thursday as the ridge axis remains south of the area and a weakening cool front moves through the southeast states. 8 inches to allow for showers and thunderstorms to develop with the highest rain chances continuing over the interior and eastern half of the Florida peninsula during the afternoon and evening hours.
Overnight lows will be in the lower to mid 60s. On Thursday, an upper trough will extend from the Great Lakes southwest across portions of the Midwest. Associated cold front will move south into the Big Country in the afternoon. The higher chances of showers and thunderstorms for a larger part of the area should hold off until the evening. Morning cloud cover will decrease in the afternoon, and expect afternon highs to range from the lower 80s in the northern Big Country, to the upper 80s and lower 90s in the Concho Valley and our southern counties.
1233 PM CDT Wed May 28 2025 - Severe thunderstorms tonight with heavy rainfall - Drier and warmer end of week into the weekend - A more stormy pattern returns for the next business week KDDC WSR-88D is showing early morning returns with light rain that has moved out from Colorado and across the Kansas plains. In addition, the hodograph in the lowest levels of the atmosphere also suggest that there is a tornado threat too.
A flat mid-level ridge will persist over S TX this afternoon and persist through Thursday. After a slightly cooler day today, temperatures will heat back up to on Thursday with mid-upper 70 dwpts returning and thus a few locations could approach heat advisory criteria.
Open wave trough continues to shift south and east toward the Great Lakes today and into tomorrow. A ridge back toward the west will replace the trough as we end the work week and enter the weekend. Conditions dry out as the ridge builds over the northern plains tomorrow and into the weekend.
High temperatures trend warmer, reaching the upper 70s along the Ohio River, low 70s north of I70. Meanwhile, the upper level trough off to our west deepens and becomes positively tilted, with its base stretching from the Great Lakes through Nebraska.
Surface anticyclone has slid southeast from the Canadian Prairie Provinces and sits under the closed-low system. The surface anticyclone has prevented a warm frontal boundary from advancing northward, which will greatly limit instability for most of our forecast area.
Currently have an upper low over southern MN into northern IA with a much weaker upper impulse over central TX. Last but not least, there is a piece of energy rotating southeast across the western periphery of the northern stream upper low. While we can't rule out some minor flooding with the high rainfall rates, this system should be progressive enough to limit widespread flooding issues. Upper low will stretch from the Great Lakes through the Ohio Valley for Sat with northwest flow aloft over the Plains. As far as temps go, we are looking for highs both Sat and Sun to be near seasonal highs as they top out in the low 80s.
- Cooler than average temperatures expected this week, warming closer to average this weekend. A complex of strong to severe storms will move into northwest Oklahoma from the high Plains later this evening.
A ridge will remain over the area with a system to the east today. A cold front will move through on Thursday afternoon with breezy west-northwest winds up to 30 mph.
Highs return to near normal in the lower 80s. Synoptic overview and current conditions: Water vapor imagery and upper level analysis show a blocking pattern across the CONUS with a low over the upper Mississippi valley and high amplitude ridge axis over the Rockies and intermountain west, and another ridge axis along the east coast. High pressure was over the region at the surface with an abundant stratocumulus field across the CWA early this afternoon.
249 PM CDT Wed May 28 2025 - Cutoff upper low will continue to plague the region with mostly cloudy conditions and persistent chances for light rain showers through Thursday.
1129 AM EDT Wed May 28 2025 Light rain and/or drizzle continues today as a low pressure system tracks north.
Although the severe risk won't be as high today, heavy rainfall will be a bigger risk due to the higher PW.
200 PM EDT Wed May 28 2025 Light rain and/or drizzle continues today as a low pressure system tracks north.
151 PM EDT Wed May 28 2025 High pressure will slowly give way to a low pressure system tracking up the east coast today.
Stratus and rain has been occurring across the area, temperatures have been cooler and the environment is more stabilized than the models suggested, would generally expect mainly heavy rainfall with the showers/storms. An upper level ridge builds in to the west by the end of the week. Temperatures will continue to warm up heading to the weekend, ending a long stretch of cooler below normal temperatures as highs return to the 70s and 80s.
An upper ridge will build across the Pacific Northwest through today for dry, warmer weather. A frontal system will move through on Thursday for cooler temperatures and a chance for showers. Warmer, dry conditions return late in the week, followed by cooler weather again over the weekend.
1246 PM CDT Wed May 28 2025 - Cutoff upper low will continue to plague the region with mostly cloudy conditions and persistent chances for light rain showers.
1253 PM EDT Wed May 28 2025 An area of low pressure will track across eastern NC and VA today and up the Middle Atlantic coast tonight, while high pressure and associated cold air damming will otherwise weaken across the interior Carolinas and VA.
Large upper low will continue to bring a few showers and thunderstorms across the southeast through this evening. The better chances for these will be closer to the upper low in South Dakota, although southeastern ND could still see them.
Winds will become northerly on Thursday then start to increase late Thursday into Thursday night under a thermal trough pattern.
Deep layered ridging remains anchored across the area with the surface through mid level ridge overhead. Ridging will remain in control through the overnight period. With that said, as was the case last night, guidance suggests that the lower level inhibition will weaken further. Expect breezes to remain steady out of the east to southeast and keep overnight lows in the lower to mid 80s with dew points holding in the mid to upper 70s. A surface Atlantic ridge will stretch westward across the Florida Peninsula overnight.
555 PM MDT Wed May 28 2025 - Cool weather and widespread precipitation continues this afternoon and evening, but warming and drying should begin on Thursday as high pressure moves over the region.
Highest storm chances tomorrow afternoon will be in the Davis Mountains (30-50%), though an incoming cold front Thursday evening will help increase rain/storm chances across the rest of the region tomorrow night as well (30- 40%).
- Cutoff upper low will continue to plague the region with mostly cloudy conditions and persistent chances for light rain showers through Thursday.
Overnight lows will be in the lower to mid 60s. On Thursday, an upper trough will extend from the Great Lakes southwest across portions of the Midwest. Associated cold front will move south into the Big Country in the afternoon. The higher chances of showers and thunderstorms for a larger part of the area should hold off until the evening. Morning cloud cover will decrease in the afternoon, and expect afternoon highs to range from the lower 80s in the northern Big Country, to the upper 80s and lower 90s in the Concho Valley and our southern counties. The NAM12 model indicates a cold front will arrive across the Concho Valley by late evening, and the I-10 corridor by midnight.
Water vapor imagery/surface analysis this morning show an area of low pressure centered over the Lower Great Lakes with high pressure strengthening over the Upper Midwest. Tonight, look for increased rain chances from the north as a cold front sinks into the UP.
- Continued thunderstorm chances in/near the higher terrain over the weekend (30-60% chances). Rich moisture, especially in the higher terrain west of the Pecos River allows for afternoon convection to develop and we should see this happen this afternoon and evening as a weak upper disturbance further destabilizes the atmosphere. Highs this afternoon will be near normal in the mid 90s, before the cold front moves through and cools temperatures back into the 80s for Friday.
There will be a small chance for an isolated severe storm given somewhat enhanced flow aloft and somewhat cooler temperatures aloft. As the surface front stalls across the area, the front aloft will lift back to the north as a warm front tonight. Activity along the approaching long-awaited cold front then looks to hold off until after midnight tomorrow night.
210 AM EDT Thu May 29 2025 Showers continue into Thursday as weak low pressure passes offshore. Another round of showers expected for the first part of the weekend as a low pressure center tracks through New England.
- Cooler than average temperatures expected this week, warming closer to average this weekend. Many CAMs show redevelopment along a cold front this afternoon, mainly to the south of I-40.
A drier airmass and ridging aloft will keep rain chances very low today. Models show a weak short wave tracking around the northern periphery of the ridge, thus can not rule out an isolated shower or two in the afternoon along the sea breeze. Highs will also be warmer today with near to above normal temperatures. However, the upper level ridge will build back across S TX providing a subsident airmass, which will keep rain chances low (10-20%) through much of the day ahead of a mid level short wave.
1130 PM MDT Wed May 28 2025 - Warmer temperatures and drier conditions should begin on Thursday as high pressure moves over the region.
- Cooler than average temperatures expected this week, warming closer to average this weekend. A complex of strong to severe storms will move into northwest Oklahoma from the high Plains later this evening. A cold front will push through the area during the day. Highs behind the front will be cooler, generally in the low to mid 70s.
An upper level ridge has begun to encroach into the northern Plains today. High temperatures this afternoon are forecasting the lower 70s southwest up to the lower 80s northeast. Winds are anticipated to remain light throughout the day today, with sustained speeds up to around 8 to 12 MPH this afternoon, while veering around the high pressure center found in northern South Dakota. Wildfire smoke aloft should begin to clear eastward from the forecast area Friday evening as another upper level ridge develops and pushes in across the northern Plains.
- Morning rain showers then scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms (mainly over the higher) Thursday.