Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1254 AM CDT Sat Aug 24 2024 (This evening through Sunday) The upper level ridge will continue to migrate eastward during the short term, with the center of the ridge axis setting up directly over Arkansas by the end of the period. Surface winds will turn southerly tomorrow as high pressure slides to the east.
(Today and tonight) An upper level trough seen barreling through the Pacific Northwest region this morning will work to push the upper level ridge and associated dome of high pressure out of the TX Panhandle into central Oklahoma this afternoon. While off the Caprock temperatures will remain about 3 to 4 degrees cooler than yesterday around 105 to 109 degrees, just shy of excessive heat criteria. Southerly return flow at 700 and 850 mb will work to increase moisture into the region, with a slight plume of moisture wrapping around the backside of the high pressure as it shifts east this afternoon.
(Today through Sunday) The ridge that was responsible for our heat this week continues to shift north this weekend. A few weak disturbances will move around the southern periphery of the ridge.
Low temperatures are forecast to be a tad cooler compared to last night's as drier air moves in from the west. An impressive, for this time of year, low pressure trough is on track to dig into California and Nevada on Saturday, resulting in another day of breezy southwest winds and overall drier conditions. Very pleasant, slightly cooler than normal temperatures are expected this weekend with the generally dry conditions.
117 AM EDT Sat Aug 24 2024 Besides patchy fog and low-clouds, mainly near area lakes and streams, clear sky overnight with calm winds due to upper/surface ridging. During the day on Saturday, expansion of ridging and continued high pressure will keep the region dry and continue a warming trend.
The focus for showers and storms tonight will shift back towards the Atlantic Coastal areas, but with the Northeast flow slowly weakening expect activity to be less than in previous nights with lows in the lower 70s inland and mid/upper 70s along the Atlantic Coast.
1044 PM CDT Fri Aug 23 2024 Little change to the forecast as high pressure continues to drive the weather across the region. (Tonight through Sunday night) An upper ridge is centered over North Texas and OK this afternoon. An upper low is beginning to pinch off over the Florida Panhandle while the associated upper trough is over much of the Atlantic Coast/eastern U. At the surface, a high is centered over the mid Atlantic with the ridge axis extending into the lower MS Valley. Even though SE TX and South LA is not directly under the upper ridge, which is the normally responsible for suppressing convection at this time of year, a mid lvl dry layer remains in place on the west side of the upper trough.
(Today through Sunday Night) A large area of high pressure is centered over north Texas this morning with an upper low over the northwest U. The upper ridge will not move much through the period but the upper low in the west will move to the northern Rockies Sunday. High pressure at the surface will be over Arkansas today. However, with the upper ridge just west of the state, northwest flow aloft will bring a short wave across the north part of the state. Sunday should remain dry for the entire area as the upper ridge moves slightly eastward. Highs today and Sunday will be in the lower to mid 90s.
The heat will build over the next few days as upper level high pressure moves over the region.
Warmer and continued dry. The forecast area remains under the influence of high pressure. Clear skies will persist overnight into Sunday morning with temperatures falling to the lower and middle 60s.
Aloft ridging dominates most of the CONUS with the ridge axis over the Midwest and slowly moving east.
418 AM EDT Sat Aug 24 2024 High pressure will settle south along the Mid-Atlantic coastline today, supporting a warming trend with a return of summer-like warmth and sunny weather.
More notably will be its affect on forecast high temperatures as areas underneath the cloud cover remain in the lower 70s this afternoon. This will lift a warm front across the region and LLJ initiated shower/storm activity.
1036 PM CDT Fri Aug 23 2024 Little change to the forecast as high pressure continues to drive the weather across the region. (Tonight through Sunday night) An upper ridge is centered over North Texas and OK this afternoon. An upper low is beginning to pinch off over the Florida Panhandle while the associated upper trough is over much of the Atlantic Coast/eastern U. At the surface, a high is centered over the mid Atlantic with the ridge axis extending into the lower MS Valley. Even though SE TX and South LA is not directly under the upper ridge, which is the normally responsible for suppressing convection at this time of year, a mid lvl dry layer remains in place on the west side of the upper trough.
1232 AM CDT Sat Aug 24 2024 (Today through Saturday) The mid-level ridge that has dominated the forecast has inched to the northwest today, increasing moisture over the area. A weak mid-level disturbance will rotate around the southern periphery of the ridge tonight which will keep a low chance of showers and thunderstorms in the forecast. With the ridge shifting slightly, temperatures will finally drop to below record levels.
Center of the upper ridge shifts northeast over Oklahoma today, with a continued decrease in temperatures.
- Additional showers and storms possible late Saturday night with the highest chances in the far northeast (40-50%).
210 AM EDT Sat Aug 24 2024 High pressure brings dry weather through the weekend, and into the new work week.
251 AM EDT Sat Aug 24 2024 High pressure brings dry weather through the weekend, and into the new work week. To start this period off on Sunday, high pressure will dominate at the surface and aloft. Upper level ridging will be sliding slightly east to place us under the downstream side of the ridge. A low pressure system from Canada will traverse south creating an omega block type pattern which will keep us mainly settled through this period and beyond. Models have some dirt developing across an upper level trough but with all the dry air in place and high pressure sealing us inside the bubble we should not see any real activity as far as rain goes.
104 AM EDT Sat Aug 24 2024 High pressure will remain in control for most of the weekend with weak thermal troughs setting up across the area each afternoon.
1141 PM CDT Fri Aug 23 2024 Temperatures across the Mid-South range from the lower 70s to mid 80s under mostly clear skies.
* We'll have noticeably cooler high temperatures today with light breezes. Precipitation: A low pressure system moving across Nevada today will spark the chance for some scattered showers starting early this morning.
120 AM EDT Sat Aug 24 2024 High pressure in place across the region with below average temperatures will gradually shift offshore into this weekend, yielding a return to near average temperatures.
(Today) A dry pattern continued over and around the greater Tennessee Valley, as strong upper level ridging over the south/central Great Plains slowly builds towards the Mid Mississippi Valley. A northerly upper flow rounding the eastern periphery of this ridge was bringing a few high clouds across the area. Area temperatures have cooled into the lower 60s to around 70 with light winds. Given the location of the high, daytime heating and recoupling of the boundary layer to the surface should result in winds in the 5-10 mph from the mid morning into the late afternoon.
135 AM EDT Sat Aug 24 2024 High pressure centered east of the region will result in a continued warming trend along with dry conditions. Dry weather is forecast to continue through Saturday night as high pressure moves gradually east.
These southwesterly, downslope winds will help to dry out the lower elevations and keep precipitation out of the forecast for most today. By late this evening into the overnight hours, a cold front is expected to move through the region. A few gusts to 40 mph are possible over the higher hills of eastern Montana behind the front (low to moderate chance). Sunday will be cooler than today with highs remaining in the mid 70s west of Billings to mid 80s east of Billings.
) One more hot day before cold front ahead of incoming trough brings a moderation of temperatures back down to seasonal averages.
1212 AM CDT Sat Aug 24 2024 High pressure continues to dominate the area, leading to quiet weather conditions tonight and tomorrow for Middle TN. Hot conditions are on tap again tomorrow as areas west of the Plateau climb into the low and mid 90s. We are starting to feel the influence of the ridge aloft that is currently over Texas and Oklahoma. With that, today's conditions will be nearly identical as the last 2 days, except just a touch warmer - passing clouds with a warm, southerly breeze. Saturday looks more of the same with even warmer temperatures as the ridge continues to push east. For those who will be participating in any outdoor activities this weekend, dew point temperatures fortunately continue to stay on the lower side, ranging from the upper 50s to low 60s.
1009 PM CDT Fri Aug 23 2024 Unfortunately, the more humid air has returned back N across the region, evident in dewpoints having returned to the lower/mid 70s. Thus, warmer and more humid conditions are expected tonight despite a mostly clear sky, as the region lingers from the Ern Seaboard SW into Cntrl LA overnight. However, the evening satellite imagery indicates that some cu have redeveloped along the Wrn periphery of the ridge axis over portions of N LA/extreme Ern TX into Srn AR, which should persist overnight.
/NEW/ /Through Sunday/ The upper ridge axis will shift northward into the Central Plains this weekend, taking the worst of the heat with it. A Heat Advisory remains in effect for many of our North Texas zones today where heat index values will still exceed 105, but Central Texas will be unlikely to experience such oppressive heat as dewpoints mix into the low/mid 60s this afternoon. /Issued 302 PM CDT Fri Aug 23 2024/ /Saturday Night Onward/ The persistent mid level ridge providing the hot streak will become displaced to the north of the region at the start of the period as an easterly wave moves inland over South Texas.
The upper ridge is centered over the southern plains this morning and it will strengthen through the weekend.
1012 AM EDT Sat Aug 24 2024 High pressure will settle south along the Mid-Atlantic coastline today, supporting a warming trend with a return of summer-like warmth and sunny weather.
647 AM EDT Sat Aug 24 2024 High pressure remains in place across the region through this weekend with near normal temperatures and dry conditions.
(Today through Sunday) The mid-level ridge that has been dominating the weather for Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley will start to move away from the area and thus the influence from it will start to lessen as well. However, the approach of an inverted trough along with seabreeze activity might be enough to help develop showers and thunderstorms for Sunday afternoon. For Sunday afternoon, the pattern for the high temperatures is expected to be largely similar to the highs today, except slightly less hot. The low temperatures are expected to be in the 70s with a few places in the lower 80s.
Increasing high clouds overnight with rising heights should keep overnight temperatures 5-10 degrees warmer than this morning.
635 AM CDT Sat Aug 24 2024 (Today and tonight) An upper level trough seen barreling through the Pacific Northwest region this morning will work to push the upper level ridge and associated dome of high pressure out of the TX Panhandle into central Oklahoma this afternoon. While off the Caprock temperatures will remain about 3 to 4 degrees cooler than yesterday around 105 to 109 degrees, just shy of excessive heat criteria. Southerly return flow at 700 and 850 mb will work to increase moisture into the region, with a slight plume of moisture wrapping around the backside of the high pressure as it shifts east this afternoon.
Overall, this scenario for the weekend presents primarily flooding concerns as there could be periods of steady and heavy rainfall across South Florida and there are no true indications of a specific portion of the CWA being at greater risk than others for the highest rainfall accumulations.
615 AM CDT Sat Aug 24 2024 (Today) A dry pattern continued over and around the greater Tennessee Valley, as strong upper level ridging over the south/central Great Plains slowly builds towards the Mid Mississippi Valley. A northerly upper flow rounding the eastern periphery of this ridge was bringing a few high clouds across the area. Area temperatures have cooled into the lower 60s to around 70 with light winds. Given the location of the high, daytime heating and recoupling of the boundary layer to the surface should result in winds in the 5-10 mph from the mid morning into the late afternoon.
624 AM CDT Sat Aug 24 2024 (Today through Sunday) The ridge that was responsible for our heat this week continues to shift north this weekend. A few weak disturbances will move around the southern periphery of the ridge.
(Rest of Today) Tranquil weather across the Tennessee Valley this morning with high pressure promoting a clear, sunny sky and light winds.
557 AM EDT Sat Aug 24 2024 High pressure builds over the area into early Sunday.
on the western periphery of a pronounced upper level ridge over the Southern and Central Plains. Today-Sunday: SW-SSW flow aloft and strong insolation will foster the development of a weak/broad lee cyclone (or thermal trough/ low) over the Tri-State area today and Sunday. [1] further away from the subsident upper ridge and [2] in closer proximity to the Colorado Front Range, Cheyenne Ridge and Palmer Divide (climatologically/topographically favored development areas). Given the position of the ridge over the Southern-Central Plains and presence of SW-SSW steering flow in the immediate lee of the Rockies, convection may largely be confined west of the Goodland CWA, though. Early in the period the area will continue to be in a favorable location for showers and storms rotating around the western periphery of the ridge.
548 AM CDT Sat Aug 24 2024 The heat will build over the next few days as upper level high pressure moves over the region.
613 AM CDT Sat Aug 24 2024 (Today through Sunday) The mid-level ridge that has been dominating the weather for Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley will start to move away from the area and thus the influence from it will start to lessen as well. However, the approach of an inverted trough along with seabreeze activity might be enough to help develop showers and thunderstorms for Sunday afternoon. For Sunday afternoon, the pattern for the high temperatures is expected to be largely similar to the highs today, except slightly less hot. The low temperatures are expected to be in the 70s with a few places in the lower 80s.
559 AM EDT Sat Aug 24 2024 High pressure remains in place across the region through this weekend with near normal temperatures and dry conditions.
The Upper and Middle Keys picked up additional rainfall with this episode, but the main cluster collapsed rather quickly and bypassed much of the Lower Keys. Model depictions suggest a weak inverted trough extends north into the Straits of Florida, although CIMMS low-level vorticity analyses do not see much cyclonic curvature (maybe a little at 850 mb).
For the most part, the Lower Keys have remained dry this morning but the Middle and Upper Keys have been dealing with some of the aforementioned shower and thunderstorm activity. Temperatures along the Island Chain are in the lower to mid 80s with dew points in the mid to upper 70s.
Upper level trough over Western Washington shifting east late this afternoon and tonight.
1002 AM EDT Sat Aug 24 2024 High pressure remains in place across the region through this weekend with near normal temperatures and dry conditions.
Temperatures trend cooler through the weekend, with low end chances for showers and thunderstorms persisting over the next couple afternoons and evenings. Snow level drop enough to result in a dusting of snow in the highest elevations of Southwest Montana Sunday night.
251 AM PDT Sat Aug 24 2024 Cooler and dry this weekend.
Outside of breezy winds again today, with gusts ranging 20 to 40 mph, this system will bring noticeable cooler temperatures this weekend and measurable precipitation on Sunday when the center of the low lifts northward through Idaho. Areas above 5,500 feet will have the greatest potential for receiving wetting rains on Sunday, where up to a quarter of an inch of QPF is forecast across the highest terrain.
The area remains between high pressure over TX/OK and an upper level trof over the PacNW.
High pressure to our north will continue to keep the area dry. On Sunday, the area of high pressure expands and pwats decrease in the southeast.
958 AM EDT Sat Aug 24 2024 High pressure builds over the area into early Sunday.
645 AM EDT Sat Aug 24 2024 High pressure will settle south along the Mid-Atlantic coastline today, supporting a warming trend with a return of summer-like warmth and sunny weather.
630 AM CDT Sat Aug 24 2024 (Today through Sunday Night) A large area of high pressure is centered over north Texas this morning with an upper low over the northwest U. The upper ridge will not move much through the period but the upper low in the west will move to the northern Rockies Sunday. High pressure at the surface will be over Arkansas today. However, with the upper ridge just west of the state, northwest flow aloft will bring a short wave across the north part of the state. Sunday should remain dry for the entire area as the upper ridge moves slightly eastward. Highs today and Sunday will be in the lower to mid 90s.
Otherwise, conditions will begin trending warmer and dryer as an upper ridge quickly builds into the region late Saturday into Sunday. Interior highs will initially struggle to reach the upper 70's this afternoon, but short range models indicate interior highs in the low 80's Sunday, nearing 90 in southern Mendocino and Lake counties. Moderate 10-15 mph NNE winds are expected across the higher elevations of Del Norte, extending down through the coast ranges. The trailing end of this stormy episode is coming and should quiet down by Sunday as an upstream ridge begins to introduce drier air and the usual seasonal northerly winds. High pressure upstream of the current trough will set in by Sunday morning, reinforcing northerly winds and accelerating around Cape Mendocino where gusts will reach up to 30 kts in the southern inner and outer waters by Sunday evening.
121 PM EDT Sat Aug 24 2024 High pressure will hold sway through the weekend as a weak system passes by mainly to our north.
Another round of isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop this afternoon along the Continental Divide and over the higher terrain of Southwest and Central Montana.
(This afternoon through Sunday night) An upper level high that was over West Texas a couple of days ago has migrated east along the Red River valley. A strong upper low moving into the West Coast and will gradually erode the high pressure as it moves east, causing temperatures to decrease. Today will still be hot with highs exceeding 100 degrees in many locations but tomorrow will be noticeably "cooler" with highs holding in the 90s everywhere but the western Low Rolling Plains and Rio Grande valley. Climatologically, it gets much harder to hit triple digits once September arrives and we start seeing more frequent, and powerful, cold fronts. Rainfall in the short term will be confined to the higher elevations west of the Pecos River.
An earlier update slowed the arrival of the higher POPs into northwest Arkansas, again leveraging the short-term blend to modify the existing forecast.
(Tonight) High pressure continuing to promote clear/dry conditions across the Tennessee Valley this afternoon. Overnight lows will once again drop into the low to mid 60s. Certainly quite comfortable for late August, especially with the lower RH values overnight.
The center of the upper level ridge is forecast to slowly shift north tonight through Sunday night. Beneath the ridge, the center of an upper level low over the northeast Gulf will slide west into the northwest Gulf Sunday and into mid Texas Sunday evening.
1159 AM CDT Sat Aug 24 2024 (Rest of Today) Tranquil weather across the Tennessee Valley this morning with high pressure promoting a clear, sunny sky and light winds.
112 PM EDT Sat Aug 24 2024 High pressure remains in place across the region through this weekend with near normal temperatures and dry conditions.
100 PM CDT Sat Aug 24 2024 (Today through Sunday) The ridge that was responsible for our heat this week continues to shift north this weekend. A few weak disturbances will move around the southern periphery of the ridge.
Beginning Sunday, ridging will push back into the area, bringing warmer conditions and breezy winds.
1240 PM CDT Sat Aug 24 2024 (Today through Sunday Night) A large area of high pressure is centered over north Texas this morning with an upper low over the northwest U. The upper ridge will not move much through the period but the upper low in the west will move to the northern Rockies Sunday. High pressure at the surface will be over Arkansas today. However, with the upper ridge just west of the state, northwest flow aloft will bring a short wave across the north part of the state. Sunday should remain dry for the entire area as the upper ridge moves slightly eastward. Highs today and Sunday will be in the lower to mid 90s.
After a hot, dry, and breezy afternoon, a cold front pushes through the area this evening into the overnight.
This drier air in combination with light winds should allow for temperatures to radiate down into the upper 60s to lower 70s across our eastern half to the lower and middle 70s elsewhere. Did go above NBM MOS output for daytime highs on Sunday, closer to the warmer MAV MOS guidance given the slightly drier airmass in place for Sunday. That drier air gets replaced by more in the way of low level moisture stream advancing northward from SE TX and S LA for Sunday Night with warmer Sunday Night low temperatures as a result.
1220 PM CDT Sat Aug 24 2024 The heat will build over the next few days as upper level high pressure moves over the region.
127 PM MDT Sat Aug 24 2024 Temperatures trend cooler through the weekend, with low chances for showers and thunderstorms persisting over the next couple afternoons and evenings. Snow levels drop enough to result in a dusting of snow in the highest elevations of Southwest Montana Sunday night.
A trough with two embedded closed lows is circulating over the Pacific Northwest and southern British Columbia. That, combined with a cooler air mass at the low levels will limit any convection today arising in the southerly flow.
Ridging across the Great Plains and Mississippi Valley continues to result in strong subsidence with clear sky conditions and lower dew points across our region. Discussion: Upper-level 597 dam 500mb ridge across the Great Plains and mid- Mississippi Valley continues to place us within northwest flow aloft with subsidence and clear sky conditions. Otherwise, 850mb heights will continue to rise with warming boundary layer temperatures resulting in max temperatures 3 to 4 degrees warmer than today.
- A cold front moving in central Montana tonight, will bring areas of showers and thunderstorms across the northern half of the CWA.
/Issued 1220 PM CDT Sat Aug 24 2024/ /This Afternoon through Sunday Night/ The center of our persistent mid level ridge will continue to be nudged northward through the weekend which will provide some relief to the hot weather we've had over the last week. On Sunday, a westward moving upper trough over the Gulf will approach the TX coast by late in the day.
Morning lows are generally forecast in the low to mid 70s across northern areas and mid to upper 70s across southern areas, with highs topping out in the low to mid 90s.