Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
- Strong dry cold front passes through Thursday, bringing gusty northwest winds and elevated fire conditions. Current surface analysis shows high pressure just north of North Dakota, while a low sits over central MT. Water Vapor and upper air models show narrow ridge stretching from the four corners region into the PAC NW, with northwest flow over our region. Deterministic models show the strongest pressure rises behind the cold front (5-7 mb/3hr) east of our forecast area.
While the air temperatures reach this high, the maximum heat indices will not climb as high. Whereas, the lows on the contrary trend cooler, especially tonight into Thursday morning. The Hill Country could start off in the low 60s on Thursday morning.
135 PM EDT Wed Sep 3 2025 High pressure to our north will extend southward through the area today. A weak cold front will approach from the west tonight and early Thursday.
- Warmer weather expected today and Thursday with highs back in the 80s to mid 90s.
1259 PM CDT Wed Sep 3 2025 - Temporarily much warmer Wednesday, followed by a weak cold front Wednesday evening.
A large upper level low pressure is moving into far southern Ontario and the Lake Superior region this afternoon. This has brought a pronounced northwest flow aloft into the Northern Plains and has pushed a strong cold front into Iowa. The cold front has been moving south through Iowa and is currently over far southern part of the state.
(This evening through Thursday night) Upper trough over the Great Lakes Region will continue to provide northwest flow off the Rockies.
209 PM MDT Wed Sep 3 2025 - Another cold front arrives Thursday bringing stronger northwest to north winds, gusting 30-45 mph (strongest east of Billings).
A low pressure in the Atlantic that was giving us some sinking air and preventing shower activity is starting to move away today.
1221 PM CDT Wed Sep 3 2025 The rather dry start to the month continues with dry northwesterly to westerly flow will remain in place for most of the forecast with a rather stout upper trough firmly planted across the eastern US. Until then the forecast will mainly be a temperature forecast with highs starting off in the upper 80s and slowly climbing into the mid 90s by the end of the week as the upper trough slowly breaks down. With drier air in place, dewpoints will remain lower keeping overnight night lows "cooler" and afternoon heat indices in check. However, as the week progresses on, dewpoints will slowly climb as return flow returns ahead of next weeks trough.
127 PM EDT Wed Sep 3 2025 High pressure will allow mainly dry and pleasant weather to persist through at least Thursday morning. A cold front is expected to move through Thursday afternoon and evening, which will bring showers and thunderstorms to the area.
1141 AM MDT Wed Sep 3 2025 - Lingering precipitation ends today, but smoke remains - Strong dry cold front Thursday brings gusty northwest winds (40-55mph) with elevated fire danger 07z surface analysis had cold front from central NE through the Black Hills into south-central MT, slowly moving southwest. It will drive a strong dry cold front through the CWA during the day, but not before temperatures pop into the 80s ahead it across the southern half of the area.
Current sfc analysis shows the wedge boundary over the eastern portions of the area which coincides with the lower PWAT values (1.
149 PM EDT Wed Sep 3 2025 High pressure builds off the east coast as low pressure begins to deepen over the northern Great Lakes. The low pressure will move slowly towards the James Bay region dragging a cold front across the area on Thursday.
250 PM EDT Wed Sep 3 2025 High pressure to our north will extend southward through the area today. A weak cold front will approach from the west tonight and early Thursday.
Hot temperatures and mainly rain-free conditions will prevail across Deep South Texas through late week with high pressure in place.
Lingering stronger low level winds via the tightened pressure gradient associated with departing low pressure over the Great Lakes could also hinder frost development by decreasing condensation/deposition.
359 PM CDT Wed Sep 3 2025 - Marginally severe storms are expected ahead of a cold front early this evening.
112 PM CDT Wed Sep 3 2025 Northwesterly flow aloft will persist through Thursday as the longwave trough over eastern North America remains intact. We will then see the longwave trough lift northward with primarily zonal flow aloft to finish off the week.
149 PM CDT Wed Sep 3 2025 - A cold front will bring a 60-80% chance for showers and thunderstorms to central Illinois late this afternoon and evening. This afternoon, low pressure is located just east of Lake Superior with a cold front draped southwest across northern Illinois into north central Missouri. Regional obs show dew points pooling in the low to mid 60s near the front contributing to modest instability. This will help advect cooler temps into the region with lows dipping into the 40s north of I-72. Surface front will spread south across the Ohio Valley Thursday while high pressure builds back across the Midwest in its wake. Cooler temperatures and notably lower dew points will be associated with this air mass. High temperatures will only be the low 70s Thursday afternoon while dew points mix down into the 40s.
A ridging west/troughing east setup remained in place over the greater North American domain. This troughing was sending various upper level systems across the area.
The best chance for clouds and a few showers will be across the Arrowhead, closer to the best synoptic forcing associated with the low up in Ontario. Therefore, coverage of frost advisories is pretty broad, only excluding the North Shore coastlines and around Brainerd to Hinckley where temperatures should remain a bit warmer.
157 PM EDT Wed Sep 3 2025 High pressure will extend across the area through late week.
A cold front will bring increasing chances of a showers and storms Thursday afternoon through the evening.
954 AM MDT Wed Sep 3 2025 - A strong cold front pushes south through Wyoming Thursday.
(This evening through Thursday) Weak cold front making progress across northwest Kansas early this afternoon will make progress across the Panhandle and Oklahoma to near the Big Country by sunrise Thursday morning. Hourly temperatures from some of the high-res models are in the 101-104 range, with the model blends showing highs tomorrow at about the same level.
An anomalously deep upper-level trough remains the dominant feature over the CONUS and should remain so into this weekend.
145 PM MDT Wed Sep 3 2025 KEY MESSAGES: - Another cold front expected Thursday with strong winds.
244 PM CDT Wed Sep 3 2025 - Showers and a few thunderstorms are expected along and behind a cold front tonight. - Temperatures will be cooler than normal for the rest of the week into the weekend.
High pressure remains over the area through Thursday and is expected to bring another hot and generally dry day across the area.
723 PM EDT Wed Sep 3 2025 High pressure to the north will maintain control into the middle of the week.
636 PM CDT Wed Sep 3 2025 - Marginally severe storms are expected ahead of a cold front early this evening.
658 PM CDT Wed Sep 3 2025 - Scattered thunderstorms expected this evening along a southward moving cold front. Surface observations show the cold front is beginning to move south from Nebraska into far northeast Kansas. Ahead of the front, sunshine and weak WAA is helping temperatures rise into the low/mid 80s - our warmest day in over 10 days. With dewpoints in the low/mid 60s and mid-level cooling beginning to occur, CIN is weakening just ahead of the boundary. The severe threat should quickly move south of the area by around 9-10 PM, with cooler and drier air steadily moving in. A fast moving upper wave then moves southeast into the main Great Lakes upper low, pushing a secondary cold front through our area Thursday night.
724 PM EDT Wed Sep 3 2025 High pressure will extend across the area through late week.
- Another cold front expected Thursday with strong winds.
DialH (This evening through Thursday) Zonal flow continues through the remainder of Wednesday before giving way to a weak upper level trough early Thursday morning. The marine layer is set to deepen to around 1800-2000 ft by Thursday night as zonal flow gives way to weak upper level troughing.
633 PM CDT Wed Sep 3 2025 - Showers and a few thunderstorms are expected along and behind a cold front tonight. - Temperatures will be cooler than normal for the rest of the week into the weekend.
Composite late evening tropospheric analysis places a cutoff low north of the Great Lake region in southern Canada, with an expansive associated longwave trough dug across the eastern half of the CONUS. The front will remain rooted in place through the next few days, while the low meanders northeast into the western North Atlantic, promoting southwest to west breezes throughout the week. High pressure slowly building across the North Atlantic over the weekend will support reduced rain and thunder chances, although remaining at or above normal.
555 PM CDT Wed Sep 3 2025 Hot temperatures and mainly rain-free conditions will prevail across Deep South Texas through late week with high pressure in place.
558 PM CDT Wed Sep 3 2025 - A cold front will bring a 60-80% chance for showers and thunderstorms to central Illinois late this afternoon and evening. This afternoon, low pressure is located just east of Lake Superior with a cold front draped southwest across northern Illinois into north central Missouri. Regional obs show dew points pooling in the low to mid 60s near the front contributing to modest instability. This will help advect cooler temps into the region with lows dipping into the 40s north of I-72. Surface front will spread south across the Ohio Valley Thursday while high pressure builds back across the Midwest in its wake. Cooler temperatures and notably lower dew points will be associated with this air mass. High temperatures will only be the low 70s Thursday afternoon while dew points mix down into the 40s.
Clouds will eventually clear from north to south across the region as high pressure clips the state. Patterson Issued 312 PM CDT Wed Sep 3 2025 Tonight through Thursday night: Clouds will decrease this evening and overnight as high pressure centered to the south clips southern Wisconsin. Quiet weather is expected during the day Thursday, with well below normal high temps in the low to mid 60s. Another round of rain will move through the area Thursday evening into Thursday night as low pressure zips through northern Wisconsin.
643 PM EDT Wed Sep 3 2025 High pressure to our north will extend southward through the area today. A weak cold front will approach from the west tonight and early Thursday.
554 PM CDT Wed Sep 3 2025 Northwesterly flow aloft will persist through Thursday as the longwave trough over eastern North America remains intact. We will then see the longwave trough lift northward with primarily zonal flow aloft to finish off the week.
610 PM CDT Wed Sep 3 2025 - Weak cold front passes tonight - Thursday with a chance of showers and storms across northern forecast area.
649 PM CDT Wed Sep 3 2025 An anomalously deep upper-level trough remains the dominant feature over the CONUS and should remain so into this weekend.
Surface observations show the cold front is beginning to move south from Nebraska into far northeast Kansas. Ahead of the front, sunshine and weak WAA is helping temperatures rise into the low/mid 80s - our warmest day in over 10 days. With dewpoints in the low/mid 60s and mid-level cooling beginning to occur, CIN is weakening just ahead of the boundary. The severe threat should quickly move south of the area by around 9-10 PM, with cooler and drier air steadily moving in. A fast moving upper wave then moves southeast into the main Great Lakes upper low, pushing a secondary cold front through our area Thursday night.
While deep layer shear supports supercells, the low level shear at least is weak and not supportive of tornado potential, however, deviant storm motions are enhancing storm inflow and definitely can make for a non-zero threat even with what is likely a slightly decoupled BL. /EC/ An anomalously deep upper-level trough remains the dominant feature over the CONUS and should remain so into this weekend.
732 PM EDT Wed Sep 3 2025 - Showers and storms to slide east this evening and tonight - Strong winds to sweep through the area Thurs night/Fri morning - Cool weather into the weekend - Showers and storms to slide east this evening and tonight A cold front stretches from Northern Illinois northeastward across Lake Michigan to near Muskegon and up towards Cadillac.
(Tonight through Thursday) A pre-frontal trough extends across Kentucky southwestward towards Memphis, then southward along the Lower Mississippi Valley. A seasonally strong cold front is currently located near the Iowa/Missouri border. At upper-levels Central Alabama remains under cyclonic flow aloft around the base of a trough across the eastern CONUS, an unusual pattern for early September. Have also added some low PoPs tomorrow afternoon along the expected location of the pre-frontal trough/moisture axis. Current sfc analysis shows the wedge boundary over the eastern portions of the area which coincides with the lower PWAT values (1.
- There is a 30-50% chance for gales on Lake Superior Friday evening behind a reinforcing cold front, mainly along the west side of the Keweenaw. Satellite and model analysis showed an upper level low pressure over western Lake Superior and Ontario. The cold front that brought rain to much of the U. The upper level low pressure will move over Lake Superior tonight and begin to lift north on Thursday, then begin to stall/retrograde over central Ontario. Most of the guidance has this low tracking through the central and eastern U.
- Behind the cold front tonight, a slight chance for showers and a few thunderstorms across the south.
224 AM EDT Thu Sep 4 2025 A cold front is expected to move through the area today, bringing showers and isolated thunderstorms this afternoon with gusty winds and brief heavy rain, mainly along and east of I-81. Cooler and unsettled weather continues into the weekend. A cold front moves through the area today, with south- southeasterly winds increasing mid-to-late morning as the pressure gradient pinches.
WV imagery indicates a closed upper low shifting slowly southeast through the Great Lakes Region with a northwest flow aloft prevailing across the Western High Plains. Near the surface, high pressure is building in across Nebraska into much of Kansas in wake of a weak cold front advancing southward into the Texas Panhandle and western Oklahoma. With the HREF indicating a 40-60% probability of temperatures topping 80F in south central Kansas to better than a 90% probability of exceeding 90F out near the Colorado border, look for wide ranging afternoon highs today from the lower/mid 80s(F) in south central Kansas to the mid/upper 90s(F) in extreme southwest Kansas.
220 AM EDT Thu Sep 4 2025 Showers and a few thunderstorms will be possible today as a cold front moves through the Ohio Valley.
Updated at 108 AM CDT Thu Sep 4 2025 - Warmer weather expected again today with highs in the mid 80s to upper 90s.
136 AM EDT Thu Sep 4 2025 High pressure to the north will maintain control into the middle of the week. An approaching cold front will lead to warming this weekend as the high moves offshore into Friday.
- A second cold front will bring 20-40% chance of additional showers south of I-72, with the greatest chances south of I-70, Friday afternoon. Highs in the low 70s, with overnight lows in the 50s. Most of the area should remain dry during this frontal passage, but where the cold front clips southeastern IL could see some additional rain.
With all that said, left the frost advisory as is, as the latest guidance trickling in and clear upstream satellite obs still favor northwestern MN to have the highest chance for widespread frost overnight.
1150 PM MDT Wed Sep 3 2025 - Temperatures trend around 5 degrees above normal through tomorrow before a cooler and more active storm system moves in by Friday. Tomorrow monsoonal moisture begins to make a push into our CWA as a trough moving inland off the Pacific supports the break down of a ridge of high pressure. It may take some time for the lower levels to saturate so the highest precipitation chances remain south of I-70, but as soon as the vertical column moistens it will be game on area wide.
(Today and tonight) An upper ridge has been in place in recent days, from the Pacific Northwest southeast across new Mexico and far West Texas. This ridge will begin to break down later today and tonight, especially along its southern portion. With a return to south to southwest surface winds, mostly sunny skies, and 850mb thermal ridge expanding east into our area, temperatures will be hotter today. Overnight lows will be in the lower to mid 70s, with the warmest readings overall in the Big Country.
This activity was along a weak prefrontal trough that extended nearly along I20 near Birmingham, Alabama. There will still remain a nearly stacked low over Canada that will maintain troughing over the northeast half of the CONUS but the upper level trough axis over our CWA early this morning will continue shifting east and near zonal flow aloft is expected across our region by sunrise Friday. These features will lead to slightly warmer than normal temperatures today and tonight along with a warming trend going into the end of the week.
(Today through Friday) Few changes in the synoptic pattern this morning as upper level troughing remains in place across the Eastern United States and a frontal boundary lingers over the Florida Keys. Highs will top out in the upper 80s and low 90s, while overnight lows will stay in the low to mid 70s across the whole area.
Friday should be dry across most of Central Alabama, and temperatures are likely to rise into the low to mid 90s.
An anomalously deep upper-level low over the Great Lakes will suppress the ridge over the Western United States and strengthen north to northwesterly flow, especially across the northern Rockies. Gradual day-to-day cooling as the upper ridge weakens over the interior western US while holding its position. Late Friday night a Pacific short wave trough will swing inland, and with mid-level monsoon moisture still present the chance of showers will increase to 25 to 40 percent in eastern OR, and clouds will increase in western ID.
A cold front will bring increasing chances of showers and storms, especially this afternoon and evening.
- Fall-like temperatures expected Friday into the weekend as an unseasonably strong system brings much cooler air to the Northern Plains/upper midwest. High pressure will settle south into the area tonight bringing light winds and partly cloudy skies. Regardless a strong wave will dive south on the backside of the unseasonably strong low pressure near and north of the Great Lakes. Friday looks cooler and breezy with diurnal cumulus likely to develop.
1223 AM CDT Thu Sep 4 2025 - Marginally severe storms are expected ahead of a cold front early this evening. - Much cooler weather is on the way for Friday. A cold front will pass across southwest Kansas this evening. The next weather maker is an amplifying upper level trough over the Great Lakes and associated cold front. Much cooler weather can be expected in the wake of the front by Friday.
Hotter than normal temperatures will take place on Thursday and Friday with highs ranging from the upper 90s near the Lower Texas Coast to the lower 100s most other places (basically along and west of IH-69E).
Wind forecasts for tonight continue to trend upward on and behind the cold front in strong cold air advection and steepening lapse rates. Thus, 40 mph gusts are on the table near and behind the cold front sweeping through for locations near/south of I-90, with the 04. Some decrease in the low-level wind field then occurs Friday morning, with gusts topping out at 30 mph for the remainder of the day.
* Another cold front will swing through the region tonight. Cold front that worked through the region yesterday afternoon and evening has pushed into southern Missouri. High pressure centered just south of Omaha as of 08Z will lead to decreasing northerly winds as the ridge builds south and east this morning. Once the ridge shifts to the east, southerly winds are expected to develop throughout the day leading to gradually improving visibilities throughout the day. A quick moving cold front associated with a low pressure system in southeastern Saskatchewan is expected to work through the region tonight.
308 AM CDT Thu Sep 4 2025 - Cold front late tonight into Friday morning will not only bring-in some colder air, but will also provide storm chances. Currently have a deep upper low situated over Southern Ontario/Northern Great Lakes with strong northwest flow aloft over the Plains. The cold front that brought storms to the area Wed evening is now located down across central OK. This will allow another cold front to surge across the Northern/Central Plains and will push through the forecast area tonight into Fri morning. By Sat morning, cold front will be located down across Southern TX with an unseasonably cool airmass in place across the Plains.
1042 PM CDT Wed Sep 3 2025 Updated at 1041 PM CDT Wed Sep 3 2025 - Warmer weather expected today and Thursday with highs back in the 80s to mid 90s.
- A weak cold front passes through the area today, with just a slight risk of showers or storms in northern areas this morning. - A stronger cold front moves through on Friday with temps well below normal by the weekend.
This activity has since drifted into the eastern Straits with KAMX radar detecting a few more pulsing showers spawning over the Deep Gulf waters and the Lower and Middle Keys. Temperatures are the only values similar to yesterday around this time and are reporting in the lower 80s across the Keys. This trough continues to promote gentle to moderate westerly breezes across our waters while the stalled front acts as a local lifting mechanism for developing convection. Meanwhile, deep layer troughing remains over eastern CONUS and looks like its here to stay for at least the next few days.
325 AM CDT Thu Sep 4 2025 - Another cold front will move through on Friday and bring rain chances (40-60%) throughout the day and even cooler temperatures through the weekend.
High pressure inland continues to drive hot weather across much of the region, with widespread Moderate HeatRisk and localized Major HeatRisk focused in the Columbia Gorge and Hood River Valley. A shift in the pattern later this week will allow cooler and wetter weather to arrive by the weekend. With cloud cover thinning tomorrow, highs may end up a few degrees warmer than today across the Willamette Valley and other inland areas. However, the Gorge and Hood River Valley are still expected to climb into the low to mid 90s. By Friday, cooler temperatures become more noticeable as the ridge weakens further, with highs trending down a few to several degrees and HeatRisk lowering to mostly Minor inland, except for locally higher values in the northern Willamette Valley and Gorge where overnight lows remain elevated.
200 AM EDT Thu Sep 4 2025 High pressure will extend across the area through late week.
Current probabilities for development are 10-25%, with the highest chances along the Sierra Nevada crest, increasing northward. As we look into the weekend, a pattern change is expected to take place, with troughing expected to take over from the ridge that had been in place for the last several days.