Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
408 PM EST Tue Jan 2 2024 Key messages: * High pressure will bring fair weather through Wednesday * A cold front will pass on Wednesday night and may bring flurries to some locations. The trend is expected to continue this evening as the high passes over. Radiating should allow for modest ridge/valley nocturnal temperature differences tonight. A southern stream short wave currently over TX will propagate eastward over the Deep South during the short term period, while a northern stream trough deepens and drops southeast into the northeast CONUS. The northern wave will support a cold front which will drop south through eastern KY on Wednesday night.
550 PM CST Tue Jan 2 2024 (Tonight through Wednesday night) Key Messages: - Rain chances taper off after midnight The approaching front will push the coastal trough eastward this evening and filter in drier air in its wake. Scattered showers are expected to continue across the region through midnight tonight before as the cold front pushes through.
703 PM EST Tue Jan 2 2024 High pressure centered south of the area overnight will get pushed away from the region as a cold front approaches.
401 PM MST Tue Jan 2 2024 Aviation Section Updated High pressure will remain over the region and provide dry conditions for the next 24 hours, but temperatures inversions will maintain colder temperatures and daily occurrences of patchy fog, mostly for southwest valleys and the Milk River valley.
536 PM CST Tue Jan 2 2024 (This evening through Wednesday) Mid to high clouds will generally clear from north to south this evening as a mid-level ridge builds in from the west. Parts of northern Oklahoma could see some dense fog, in addition to patchy freezing fog, but confidence in a Dense Fog Advisory is not high at this time. Southern Oklahoma may stay in the low to mid 30s, depending on how fast the cloud cover moves out.
1249 AM EST Wed Jan 3 2024 (06Z TAFS) VFR most of Wednesday then passing showers/storms ahead of an approaching cold front bring brief MVFR/IFR cigs/vsbys mainly to northern coastal terminals TPA/PIE/SRQ after around 02Z.
950 PM PST Tue Jan 2 2024 A well defined cold front is approaching the coast of Northern California this afternoon. Similar amounts are expected through the afternoon- evening hours, before the cold front passes.
High pressure over the southeastern United States has driven a phantom cold front southward into the Florida Straits. Temperatures are in the mid 60s with dew points in the lower to mid 50s. High pressure over the southeastern United States will migrate southeastward tonight. Expect winds to remain more backed on the cooler nearshore waters.
Numerous reports of freezing drizzle across the northern MN have begun rolling in. Satellite and surface observations indicate ceilings are continuing to lower aiding in producing the freezing drizzle. RAP soundings are keeping the signal for the dry air in the mid levels and increased omega in the low levels through the early morning hours. Radar showing some light reflectivities this afternoon which could be mix of -fzdz and -sn though half of the forecast area has temps above freezing, so fzdz may be just dz in places. A cold front will slip down from Canada this evening bringing light snowfall. The cold air doesn't linger for too long as weak ridging builds Thursday allowing more moisture to sneak in from the southwest.
212 AM EST Wed Jan 3 2024 A cold front will bring scattered snow showers this afternoon followed by lake effect snow showers this evening, west of IN 15 and north of US 6.
938 PM CST Tue Jan 2 2024 - Patchy light freezing drizzle continues to sink southeastward through far southern Wisconsin. The secondary cold front is still on track for tomorrow afternoon, which will bring more snow showers and perhaps a dusting of snow beneath more intense showers. MH Issued 230 PM CST Tue Jan 2 2024 Tonight through Wednesday night: Freezing drizzle hasn't materialized this afternoon as mostly low clouds have occurred over southern WI, with some patchy fog southwest of Madison. Following the passage of the trough tonight, a secondary cold front should pass tomorrow afternoon, bringing in stronger CAA and flurries/light snow showers during the afternoon hours. Temperatures should then dive into the teens Wednesday night as skies clear and high pressure moves overheard.
Issued 257 AM CST Wed Jan 3 2024 Today through Thursday: Another cold front will sweep across the region from north to south today, bringing with it a low chance (20%) for a few light snow showers, along with colder temperatures for tonight and Thursday.
A s/wv ridge traversing the state today and tonight will bring the region an additional 24 hours of tranquil weather. This will cause a much larger surface area to become impacted by snowfall, compared to previous warmer storms.
314 AM EST Wed Jan 3 2024 A weak cold front will push through the area today, ushering in slightly colder air to the region for tonight through the end of the week.
The advisory's expiration attempts to account for the timing of a strong cold front progged to barrel through the CWA from north to south later tonight after midnight CST. The high will push an arctic front ahead of it into the Dakotas and Minnesota. This front may be able to squeeze a few flurries out of the low clouds as the leading edge moves south. The biggest impact will be felt Wednesday and Wednesday night as the high settles over the cwa. Highs Wednesday will be more seasonable, topping out in the 20s, but looking at lows in the low single digits Wednesday night, even with ridging aloft, given the good set up for radiational cooling.
Overall freezing fog potential appears to be low at this point and removed fog along the I-44 corridor, including the Tulsa metro.
324 AM EST Wed Jan 3 2024 Weak high pressure will prevail today with cool and dry weather conditions. The next chance for rain will come tonight into early Thu as a quick moving low pressure system moves from the Gulf of Mexico northeast to the offshore waters off the Mid- Atlantic States. Dry and cool high pressure will return Thu thru Fri followed by the next strong storm system during the first half of the upcoming weekend. High pressure will be giving way to a weak storm system moving northeast from the Gulf of Mexico to a position well off the SE NC coast at daybreak Thursday. Clouds and rain will be all but gone at the start of the period with cold high pressure building in.
830 PM PST Tue Jan 2 2024 Scattered showers Wednesday will taper off and end in the afternoon as a cold front moves through. Blustery northwest winds will fill in behind the cold front during the afternoon, strongest over the coastal waters, the beaches and the mountains.
348 AM EST Wed Jan 3 2024 A cold frontal passage Wednesday night and Thursday is expected with a few snow showers. High pressure then builds back into the region for the rest of the work week. This will be followed by a low pressure system tracking from the gulf to a bit off the east coast later this weekend.
2 The lingering cloud cover across the north/east tomorrow will result in temperatures only climbing into the low to mid 50s, whereas highs should be about 10 degrees warmer where clouds can clear across the south and west.
1100 PM CST Tue Jan 2 2024 (This evening through Wednesday) Mid to high clouds will generally clear from north to south this evening as a mid-level ridge builds in from the west. Parts of northern Oklahoma could see some dense fog, in addition to patchy freezing fog, but confidence in a Dense Fog Advisory is not high at this time. Southern Oklahoma may stay in the low to mid 30s, depending on how fast the cloud cover moves out.
1133 PM CST Tue Jan 2 2024 (This afternoon through Wednesday night) Upper level low is progressing across the area this afternoon and bringing some light rain and plenty of cloud cover to southeast New Mexico and the Permian Basin. Lows dip near or below freezing across much of the Permian Basin and into the mid to upper 20s for southeast New Mexico and the higher elevations. With less clouds and more sun, expect temperatures to be a few to several degrees warmer for Wednesday with highs in the mid to upper 50s north of I-10 and low to mid 60s for areas to the south.
Mostly dry, but flurries/freezing drizzle/slight chance POPs (10 to 20 percent) across the east TN mountains, northeast TN, and southwest VA tonight into Thursday morning. At the same time, an upper trough will be moving through the the midwest/Ohio River Valley. Then, additional light moisture moves in overnight as the upper trough axis swings through the area. The combination of weak orographic lift from the northwest flow and 500mb vorticity moving through the trough base, should be enough to spit out some light precip. This means Ptype could be in the form of flurries/light snow showers but also freezing drizzle if dendrites can't form.
1100 PM CST Tue Jan 2 2024 (This evening through Wednesday) The upper low is east of El Paso early this afternoon, over the NM/TX border and moving slowly east. In an area of stronger lift ahead of this low, showers and widely scattered thunderstorms are overspreading northern and eastern parts of our area. The aforementioned low is forecast to open into a trough as the system moves across West Texas later this afternoon. The trough will move east across our area and into central Texas later tonight. Rain chances will shut off roughly between 6 PM and Midnight, as the trough axis shifts east across our area. The upper trough to our east will move across the lower Mississippi Valley, and an upstream trough will deepen over the western CONUS with a closed low north of Las Vegas by evening.
This will help high temperatures climb into the low to mid 50s by this afternoon. As the high shifts to the southeast of our area this afternoon, winds will back to the south and southeast but remain light. With temperatures hovering near the freezing mark some patchy light ice accumulations would be possible especially on elevated surfaces.
The first will bring a chance for valley rain and mountain snow showers tonight along with much cooler temperatures.
(Today and tonight) The upper level trough that brought rain to portions of the area yesterday, has moved to the east of West Central Texas. Cloud cover will begin to increase again overnight, mainly after midnight, ahead of the next approaching upper level trough.
Heavier freezing drizzle and icing which was predominate early evening in NW MN, esp Roseau, Gatzke, Warroad, Baudette has subsided and that area got a quick bit of snow. Now far west and south thru northern valley to Grand Forks and Hillsboro getting that area of light snow/flurries and some freezing drizzle spreading southward. So will let the winter wx advisory expire at 06z for NW MN and far north valley as I do think the freezing drizzle part while not gone is much lighter and less impactful. Split flow in the mid to upper levels will continue, which will aid in keeping the closed low to our south.
Winds have decoupled and the KY Mesonet shows the usual ridge/valley/radiational cooling setup. Current blended guidance suggests lows in the lower 20s in the valleys with mid 20s elsewhere.
1128 PM CST Tue Jan 2 2024 - Despite an unfavorable wind direction, fog development is possible overnight, with the highest chances along and east of Highway 281.
Some of these could actually ride along the warm front and scrape the coast, just something to be aware of through the morning hours.
With the temperatures in the mid-20s, attention will be paid to how dense the fog will develop, and conditions will be monitored for possible fog/freezing fog advisories, with northern Oklahoma having the highest potential for an advisory. With the clearing skies, high temperatures are expected to marginally increase, with daytime highs in the low to mid 50s across the region.
- Fog potential will increase tonight along with the potential for some light freezing drizzle by daybreak Thursday.
336 AM MST Wed Jan 3 2024 MORNING DISCUSSION: Dense freezing fog has settled over a large portion of our area and is expected to continue through the late morning. Looking ahead, the pattern becomes more unsettled as the upper level ridge moves east and a trough moves in setting up a split flow pattern with the northern stream over NE Montana and a trough/closed low broadly over the western U.
539 AM CST Wed Jan 3 2024 (Today through Thursday) Key Messages: - Small Craft Advisory in effect until noon today over the Gulf Waters - Patchy fog tonight across portions of Coastal Plains Rain chances during the short term period come to an end as the low pressure system moves off to the east of our CWA, leaving subsidence in it's wake at least until the next system.
507 AM CST Wed Jan 3 2024 (Today and tonight) The upper level trough that brought rain to portions of the area yesterday, has moved to the east of West Central Texas. Cloud cover will begin to increase again overnight, mainly after midnight, ahead of the next approaching upper level trough.
A vigorous low pressure system from over the Pacific Ocean will approach Arizona during the day. The result will be cooler temperatures and increasing clouds for much of the day as the low draws near. The low is moving in a bit faster than we were thinking 24 hours ago so by late this afternoon precipitation chances arrive reaching as far east as a Prescott-Flagstaff-Page line. Tonight and Thursday the low will take a direct aim at northern Arizona.
(Rest of Today) Mid/high ovc deck of clouds have managed to offset much in the way of fog/freezing fog this Wed morning. Current temps are still below the freezing mark and may be slow to climb above 32F for a couple of more hrs. Temps later today look to climb mainly into the lower/mid 40s, although the higher elevations may stay just under the 40F mark. Some flurries are still possible in the higher elevations as well, although the prob is again low.
Satellite imagery reveals a low-pressure trough advancing onto the west coast, centered in northern California. The current southwesterly flow pattern over the Northern Rockies has led to an increase in cloud cover associated with the low- pressure system. Pockets of freezing rain are also possible at lower elevations tonight with the probability of the wet bulb temperature being below freezing being at around 60 percent.
931 AM EST Wed Jan 3 2024 Weak high pressure will prevail today with cool and dry weather expected. The next chance for rain will come tonight as a quick moving low pressure system moves by to our south.
645 AM EST Wed Jan 3 2024 A cold front will bring scattered snow showers this afternoon followed by lake effect snow showers this evening, west of IN 15 and north of US 6.
(Today through Thursday) Key Messages: - Small Craft Advisory in effect until noon today over the Gulf Waters - Patchy fog tonight across portions of Coastal Plains Rain chances during the short term period come to an end as the low pressure system moves off to the east of our CWA, leaving subsidence in it's wake at least until the next system.
(Today) Sunshine will return today resulting in warmer temperatures.
530 AM CST Wed Jan 3 2024 (Today) Sunshine will return today resulting in warmer temperatures.
542 AM EST Wed Jan 3 2024 A weak cold front will push through the area today, ushering in slightly colder air to the region for tonight through the end of the week.
548 AM CST Wed Jan 3 2024 (Today through Thursday Night) An upper trough will move through the state today, followed by upper level ridging tonight. The upper ridge moves to the east coast Thursday night. Another upper low moves into the Texas Panhandle Thursday night. Clear skies are expected tonight with some patchy freezing fog expected in the southwest and west. A large area of high pressure will be over the state Thursday but will move east Thursday night.
Another cool and dry early morning is in progress along the Florida Keys, with temperatures mostly in the lower 60s and dewpoints in the mid 50s as of 4 AM.
The coldest upper level trough of the season so far is passing through NorCal this morning and will deepen into an upper level low over southern Nevada and then Arizona, as it drops southeast through Thursday.
KEY MESSAGES: -Dry and continued chilly ----------------------------------------------------------------- Another quiet day with zonal flow aloft and high pressure at the surface. This wave is being shoved eastward in response to a deeper and colder trough that will swing through the western Great Lakes.
605 AM EST Wed Jan 3 2024 Weak high pressure will prevail today with cool and dry weather conditions. The next chance for rain will come tonight into early Thu as a quick moving low pressure system moves from the Gulf of Mexico northeast to the offshore waters off the Mid- Atlantic States. Dry and cool high pressure will return Thu thru Fri followed by the next strong storm system during the first half of the upcoming weekend. High pressure will be giving way to a weak storm system moving northeast from the Gulf of Mexico to a position well off the SE NC coast at daybreak Thursday. Clouds and rain will be all but gone at the start of the period with cold high pressure building in.
943 AM EST Wed Jan 3 2024 A weak cold front will push through the area today, ushering in slightly colder air to the region for tonight through the end of the week.
After a cold start Thursday morning, high pressure will build over the area on Thursday, with decreasing clouds and highs in the upper 40s to low 50s.
635 AM EST Wed Jan 3 2024 A cold frontal passage Wednesday night and Thursday is expected with a few snow showers. High pressure then builds back into the region for the rest of the work week. This will be followed by a low pressure system tracking from the gulf to a bit off the east coast later this weekend.
921 AM EST Wed Jan 3 2024 A cold frontal passage Wednesday night and Thursday is expected with a few snow showers. High pressure then builds back into the region for the rest of the work week. This will be followed by a low pressure system tracking from the gulf to a bit off the east coast later this weekend.
(This evening through Thursday) Mid-level ridging will keep skies clear this evening which will help overnight lows get down into the mid 20s to lower 30s.
The precipitation has had a tough time reaching the ground so far across the north due to ample amounts of dry air in the lower levels.
Mid to high level clouds have built into Middle TN as a short wave trough passes to our south. With the cool start to the morning and now the cloud cover temperatures are struggling to warm and are running about 5 to 10 degrees cooler then this time yesterday. Because of the slower warming and the cloud cover bumped daytime highs down just a bit, should make it into the low to mid 40s this afternoon.
Still lots of uncertainty regarding impacts from low pressure moving up the northeast coast this weekend. KEY MESSAGES: -Scattered snow showers return late Wednesday night through Thursday morning -Minor accumulation in the lowlands with up to an inch possible in the higher elevations -Turning dry again Thursday afternoon and colder with a brisk northwest wind ----------------------------------------------------------------- Dry conditions will continue through the afternoon with zonal flow aloft and high pressure at the surface. Outside of the ridges, and possibly some locations in the I-80 corridor, the latest NBM range of potential snowfall (10th pct-90th pct)for Thursday is well below an inch. Even in the higher elevations the 90th percentile sits at 1 inch.
Will build upon the low POPs for light snow showers and flurry coverage, but the more organized snow shower activity still looks to occur acrs WI into lower MI/northeast IL. Still some worry that if we don't get the seeders, it may be another window of drizzle/ freezing drizzle opportunity especially with a more robust lift regime moving down acrs the area this afternoon/ evening. High temps generally in the mid 30s, with a secondary cold front pushing in from the northwest this afternoon. Will also bank on enough north to northwesterly sfc wind flow in incoming high pressure gradient to limit any fog production if we do clear out.
229 PM CST Wed Jan 3 2024 - Flurries or patchy freezing drizzle ending this evening - Light snow possible this weekend with less than an inch for most (70 to 95%). A few reports of freezing drizzle have been noted by surrounding offices, but reports have been fairly patchy so far. Have leaned towards the blend for temperatures for now, but any clearing could send temps a bit cooler and vice versa.
Clear skies and light winds are expected again overnight with overnight temps falling below freezing once more. Freezing fog potential will exist again late tonight, however low confidence in overall coverage and duration will preclude a mention in the zones at this time. Will let evening shift revisit the freezing fog potential. (Tomorrow through Wednesday) Upper low currently approaching the four corners region will continue its eastward motion and enter the plains by Thursday evening, however not before another day with many locations seeing high temps in the 50-55 degree range. Precipitation chances associated with the upper low will increase from west to east across the forecast area after midnight.
A low pressure system is moving east near the mouth of the Mississippi. For the remainder of the afternoon, expect highs in the lower to mid 70s and partly to mostly cloudy skies. Gentle northeast to east breezes will turn to the southeast by this evening, then south to southwest tonight as weak low pressure develops over the northern Gulf of Mexico. Another weak cold front will pass through the Keys Thursday afternoon, bringing gentle to moderate northerly breezes into Thursday night.
A series of cold fronts are expected to push through Florida over the next 7 days as the active El Nino pattern continues over the state. This will lead to a cooler and quiet weather day for Thursday.
124 PM EST Wed Jan 3 2024 A cold front will bring freezing drizzle followed by scattered snow showers today.
1222 PM EST Wed Jan 3 2024 A weak cold front will push through the area today, ushering in slightly colder air to the region for tonight through the end of the week.
1125 AM CST Wed Jan 3 2024 (Today through Thursday Night) An upper trough will move through the state today, followed by upper level ridging tonight. The upper ridge moves to the east coast Thursday night. Another upper low moves into the Texas Panhandle Thursday night. Clear skies are expected tonight with some patchy freezing fog expected in the southwest and west. A large area of high pressure will be over the state Thursday but will move east Thursday night.
339 PM EST Wed Jan 3 2024 A weak cold front will move through the area tonight, bringing a cooler airmass to the region on Thursday.
This light rain south of the area is associated with a weak area of low pressure that is currently moving eastward across the Gulf Coast states. Cloud cover though may be slow to diminish later tonight, as a broad upper trough pattern continues to traverse eastward thru the region. Seasonably cooler air will also remain in place tonight, as lows fall mainly into the mid/upper 20s for most spots. A few locations may see some brief/patchy freezing fog late tonight, but the prob is low and the coverage should likewise be fairly sparse.
1130 AM CST Wed Jan 3 2024 (Today and tonight) The upper level trough that brought rain to portions of the area yesterday, has moved to the east of West Central Texas. Cloud cover will begin to increase again overnight, mainly after midnight, ahead of the next approaching upper level trough.
A thin line of thunderstorms are out ahead of the cold front. Temperatures are in the lower to mid 70s and dewpoints are in the lower 60s. Aside from our Clipper system which will slide east across Florida tonight, water vapor imagery highlights a second cyclone pressing into southern California.
Winds will shift to northerly as the system moves off, ushering in a cooler and drier airmass. With a more organized northerly flow setting up tonight, conditions will be borderline high, but am not confident to drop the high at this time.