Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
(Rest of today through Sunday) Portions of southeast Florida could see scattered shower activity once again today as ridging erodes and the sea breezes become the driving features for convection. The 12Z sounding showed moderate instability and moisture in the lower levels which could support a few strong thunderstorms, with current values of SBCAPE and PWATs at 1300 J/kg and 1. An additional risk exists for small hail with some of the stronger storms, but warmer temperatures aloft will help limit this risk. Temperatures will reach the mid 90s later this afternoon ahead of the convection as winds remain out of the S/SW, with heat indices in the low 100s possible. Ridging will build back on Sunday with only isolated chances for showers and storms in the forecast.
For Sunday, temperatures will climb into the lower to mid 90s across the region.
This is due to the low sneaking past us to our north. This will move out of the area by late tonight, bringing a brief period of zonal flow before strong ridging develops.
121 PM PDT Sat May 25 2024 Slightly cooler today in some areas, with gusty southwest to west winds in the mountains and deserts. Only partial clearing of the low clouds this afternoon.
- Warmer and dry Memorial Day. Otherwise, the system is not very cold; snow will be limited to the mountains, with only light accumulations on the highway passes. Memorial Day will be dry all around as stronger ridging returns to the area.
Hot weather will continue for Memorial Day as an upper- level ridge persists over northern Mexico.
There is a disturbance over northern Nevada moving through the broad trough encompassing the Great Basin. Considerable cloud cover exists to the north of Las Vegas and across much of central and northern Nevada early this morning in association with a broad trough moving through. This trough axis will begin to shift east by this afternoon with the flow aloft turning more westerly.
However, the cold front associated with the passing wave will not clear western AR and SE OK until late afternoon and conditions will become increasingly unstable ahead of the boundary.
Finishing out the weekend: The upper level trough that helped support the deep/cool/moist marine layer will exit eastward.
Otherwise, the upper level trough over the Rockies has begun to lift out towards the Great Lakes region. As the low level jet veers, the MCS will slide east across the region. So where ever the outflow from the morning activity ends up, thunderstorms are expected to redevelop during the afternoon and into the evening as the mid level trough moves through and erodes inhibition.
1121 AM MDT Sat May 25 2024 -Showers/Thunderstorms this weekend -Warmer and drier mid-week with thunderstorms returning for the end of the week. Current surface map places weak trough across western South Dakota. Water vapor imagery shows elongated upper low over southern Canada into the Great Lakes. Inverted trough extends northward into central South Dakota this afternoon. Upper level ridge builds across the Rockies early in the week then shifts across the Plains mid-week.
Sunday is expected to be mostly dry under high pressure, but thunderstorms will returning Sunday night into Memorial Day.
Showery and cooler conditions will continue into Sunday as an upper level trough moves through the region.
High pressure will gradually work its way into the area through the first half of the coming week, resulting in warmer and drier conditions.
This brought breezy onshore winds, with the low clouds persisting into the early afternoon in some areas. High pressure ridging builds in Sunday with a strong warming and drying trend beginning. The upper level ridge axis is expected to strengthen but will remain centered to the east over the Rocky Mountains. This along with trough developing over the Pacific Northwest limit cooling and continue some lighter onshore flow into mid week.
Though chances are on the lower end due to uncertainties.
Based off latest CAMs, scattered thunderstorm development is anticipated between 20-23Z both along a convergence zone situated roughly in vicinity of Hwy 83 and with the cold front entering northwest portions of the area (Yuma, Dundy counties). The cold front is anticipated to move through the area between 00- 06Z. For Sunday, low pressure progresses off towards the east. Pleasant weather anticipated for the Memorial Day Holiday as a ridge of high pressure builds in, giving sunny skies, light west- northwesterly winds, and high temperatures in the middle 70s to middle 80s.
Dry northwesterly to northerly flow is present across most of the region, with intermittent gusts reported over the lower Treasure Valley and Magic Valley.
Cooler than normal temperatures continue across the interior today. Residual cloudiness is expected to continue to diminish this afternoon as a trough moves out and a ridge begins to build in. The building ridge with light winds and clear skies will cool temperatures inland to the 40s, with mid-to-high 30s possible in the colder valleys of Trinity County. Coastal stratus is expected to build back in tonight as the ridge builds in.
High pressure will remain in place over the waters through the next several days with westerly winds continuing.
Issued by National Weather Service Lubbock TX 631 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024 (This evening through Sunday) A Moderate severe risk will remain through much of our Oklahoma CWA to an Enhanced risk across our Texas CWA through midnight with the potential of severe storms rapidly growing to supercells initiating east of an approaching dryline and Pacific-based cold front. Should it develop, it would be fairly fast moving across our CWA and exiting after midnight as the surface boundaries (dryline/cold front) start pushing in from the west.
627 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024 (This evening through Sunday night) An upper level ridge centered over Mexico just west of the Bay of Campeche will continue to be expanded northeast across the Gulf States through Sunday.
Currently - A surface through lower level Atlantic ridge stretches westward across South Florida and the Keys this evening. This evenings sounding indicated quite a bit of drier air through the lower levels and a fairly strong inversion based around 800 mb. Near seasonable conditions are in place with temperatures coming down through the lower and mid 80s with dew points in the lower 70s. Short Term Update - Guidance suggests that the previously mentioned trough will brush the Keys later in the night. Moisture will remain limited and the troughs influence will be insufficient to wipe out the lower level inhibition. Atlantic ridging across South Florida and the Keys will result in light broadly southeasterly breezes tonight.
However, there is not much discernible upper level support and air aloft is dry, so as weak ridging aloft moves over us from the west it should help to shut off any remaining convection late tonight.
- Redevelopment of strong to severe weather this afternoon into the early evening possible along any outlflows and with cold front. At the surface, low pressure was located over central KS with a stationary boundary bisecting our CWA from northwest to southeast. Temperatures across the CWA were in the low to mid 70s with dew points in the upper 60s to low 70s. If enough atmospheric recovery can take place from this mornings convection, sufficient instability should build up ahead of the cold front and any remnant boundaries for the redevelopment of strong to severe convection during the afternoon and evening. Overnight and Monday: Clearing should take place overnight tonight behind the cold front and upper wave, with drier air moving into the area.
Additionally, southerly flow will maintain a moisture rich airmass that, combined with high temperatures in the lower 90s areawide, will allow for heat index values to approach 105 degrees across much of the region. A trailing cold front will linger across the I-30 corridor this afternoon. Conditions forecast to improve late tonight into Monday with temperatures ranging from highs in the low to mid 90s and overnight lows in the mid 60s to lower 70s. (Monday Night through Sunday) An upper-level ridge centered across Mexico will maintain northwest flow aloft across much of the region through the long- term period.
(Tonight through Monday Night) Warm and breezy evening with air temps still in the low to mid 80s.
423 AM EDT Sun May 26 2024 High pressure will continue to ridge across the area at the surface and aloft through Monday with generally westerly flow in place and hot and dry conditions. Temperatures will warm into the lower 90s at the coast to the mid to upper 90s inland.
The UL trough responsible for yesterday's wind, dust, and extreme fire conditions will continue to depart the region throughout the day today. We'll still largely be on the back-side of the trough, so eastern portions of the CWA will still be a bit on the breezy side, nothing like seen yesterday though.
- Cooler with rain showers on Memorial Day. At the surface, high pressure centered over Lake Huron will continue to trek east this morning with southeasterly return flow developing locally. Low pressure well to our southwest will make steady northeast progress to northern IL/southern WI by 00z with a warm front expected to be draped across southern Michigan. Northeastward progress continues overnight with low pressure expected to be centered squarely overhead by 12z Monday. Cooler at the immediate coasts of course, especially near Lake Huron. Shower chances continue to propel northeastward through the evening as support continues to increase ahead of the aforementioned northward moving warm front. Pattern Synopsis and Forecast: Low pressure system will likely be tracking in the vicinity of northern Michigan through Monday with rain shower chances and breezy conditions (although oddly still some discrepancies within operation and ensemble guidance).
The advancing Rockies long wave trough will continue to induce a surface wave response and subsequent warm front development into the night. The warm front is expected to remain just to our south, however 1-2K J/kg MLCAPEs may still reach the border with 2-3K J/kg MUCAPEs farther north into the state above the 500-1000m inversion. Although CINH will likely suppress tornadic development for the most part, effective shear to 40+ kts at times and ESRH 300+ m2/s2 will lead to organization with damaging wind and large hail potential, even well north of the warm front. Any significant convection should have exited to the south and east by daybreak Sunday, however weaker precip may linger into the day, especially the morning, until the passage of the H85/H7 trough.
Clouds will increase overnight, as a warm front slides northward across the region. Rain chances will start to bump up towards dawn Monday, especially Twin Tiers southward as that warm front moving into the region. A warm front will lift north of the area Monday morning, with southerly flow expected to advect in deeper moisture. Meanwhile, a cold front and associated upper level disturbance will push in from the west late in the afternoon or early in the evening, bringing another round of showers and thunderstorms.
(Today through Monday) Despite plenty of instability across Central Alabama today, an upper ridge will expand northward today and suppress convection. Increasing southerly flow will bring warmer air northward with highs today in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Mid level dry air intrusion from the morning storms will likely limit areal coverage of thunderstorms Monday afternoon and evening, with the higher threat for severe storm development along and south of I-20.
These storms will once again pose a severe risk across much of the state as they move into the state along and ahead of a cold front. as the cold front clears the state, it will bring in cooler and more stable air. Temperatures are expected to be in the lower 80s to lower 90s with overnight lows dropping into the lower 60s to lower 70s.
Instability is maximized along and south of a warm frontal boundary, subjectively analyzed at 19z along I-40 from MEM to LIT to OKC. A more distinct signal for convection to affect the forecast area appears for late Sunday and Sunday night, as a cold front approaches from the northwest.
- Warmer and dry Memorial Day. Otherwise, the system is not very cold; snow will be limited to the mountains, with only light accumulations on the highway passes.
115 AM PDT Sun May 26 2024 A warming trend will begin as weak ridge of high pressure builds over the area.
As this system moves east, high pressure will build in its wake and strengthen through the remainder of the Memorial Day weekend.
Showery and cooler conditions will continue into Sunday as an upper level trough moves through the region. Upper level ridging will slowly begin to build east of our area through Monday for slightly warmer temps, with troughing over the Pacific still keeping an influence over western Washington.
1216 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024 (This evening through Sunday) A Moderate severe risk will remain through much of our Oklahoma CWA to an Enhanced risk across our Texas CWA through midnight with the potential of severe storms rapidly growing to supercells initiating east of an approaching dryline and Pacific-based cold front. Should it develop, it would be fairly fast moving across our CWA and exiting after midnight as the surface boundaries (dryline/cold front) start pushing in from the west.
A stronger storm is possible, though better chances look to remain south of the Highway 20 corridor.
901 PM PDT Sat May 25 2024 Slightly cooler today in some areas, with gusty southwest to west winds in the mountains and deserts. Only partial clearing of the low clouds this afternoon.
(Now through Sunday) Latest water vapor imagery shows upper troughing over the Plains, with weak ridging and zonal flow over much of the eastern CONUS. At the surface, high pressure remains anchored over the northeast Gulf, with southerly flow persisting across the local area. Sunday will be another dry and hot day, as the upper ridging amplifies during the day. Rain chances will be on the low side thanks to the subsidence associated with the amplifying ridge.
(Today through Monday) Models show mid-level ridging stretching its axis from the GOMEX and into the SE CONUS, which gradually slides southward as a trough deepens further north. With the ridge axis moving over the peninsula, subsidence and overall stability will increase. Sfc winds will become generally light with the ridge above the area, which combined with the lack of cloud cover will result in temperatures hitting the mid 90s today, and mid-upper 90s on Monday afternoon across much of South FL.
1125 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024 (This evening through Sunday night) An upper level ridge centered over Mexico just west of the Bay of Campeche will continue to be expanded northeast across the Gulf States through Sunday.
The ridge axis of weak, broad high pressure will remain south of the local Atlantic waters, producing light SW-WSW in the overnight and morning, becoming calm and variable at times, that back to SE-ESE at 10-15 kts in the afternoon after the sea breeze develops.
The slightly cooler air mass will help keep temperatures a few degrees cooler than previous days. However, you should take the word "cooler" with a grain of salt as warm westerly winds and clear skies will help boost high temperatures back into the mid to upper 90s.
211 AM MDT Sun May 26 2024 A broad trough was working its way through Montana early this morning. Winds increase today as the strongest wave within the trough moving through, slides across northeast Montana. High temperatures today will be in the mid to upper 60s, but will feel a little cooler than that with the wind. Readings will be warm (and feel much warmer with more sunshine and less wind) on Memorial Day, with highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s.
Slightly less cloud cover Sunday night into Monday may lead to slightly "cooler" lows this period for some.
Clouds will increase overnight, as a warm front slides northward across the region. Rain chances will start to bump up towards dawn Monday, especially Twin Tiers southward as that warm front moving into the region. As the front associated with our storm system on Monday pushes through our eastern areas later in the evening, showers and thunderstorms will be tapering off overnight as cooler, drier air filters in in its wake.
1239 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024 (Tonight through Monday Night) Warm and breezy evening with air temps still in the low to mid 80s.
The short wave trough has moved east of the area but the smaller scale interactions along boundaries and pockets of instability will keep the activity going a few more hours. A more pronounced trough moves by late tonight but appears to have its greatest impacts north of the area. Sunday appears to be a calmer day, as upper level heights will actually increase as a 594 decameter ridge builds over the central Gulf of Mexico. Rain chances will then increase across the northwest counties in response to the upper trough axis moving eastward over the plains states and approaching surface front in Arkansas. Hot and humid conditions are expected due to the lack of showers and storms with highs in the lower 90s in most locations.
(Today through Monday night) A cold front moving through the Panhandles early this morning will keep temperatures down about 5 to 10 degrees from yesterday. Temperatures in the lower 90's in the vicinity of the trough will also help the instability.
The trough has just crossed the Divide so the existing showers are expected to dissipate over the next several hours. The left over moisture should result in mainly just clouds in the higher terrain this afternoon. So tomorrow light orographic showers are possible over the higher terrain. A ridge begins to build over the region which marks the beginning of the warm up expected. Highs tomorrow will be 5-10 degrees warmer than today. Ridging continues to build in on Memorial Day as the warmup continues. Some Cu buildup will occur over the higher terrain but that looks to be it.
The eastward shift of the base of the Central Plains upper trough will pull the dry higher terrain air east into the rest of South Central Texas, leading to the peak period of this early season Heatwave.
At the surface, low pressure is situated across south central KS with a trough from Eastern Nebraska into the low over central KS. The impulse over the Northern Rockies will pass over the Northern Plains Mon morning as a more robust upper low sinks south across Eastern Manitoba. For mid to late week, a broad area of upper troughing will encompass the Western CONUS with the main upper trough tracking from the Northern Intermountain into the Northern Rockies.
Beyond Memorial Day, another low pressure system will keep it dry with breezy late day winds returning. * Evidence for the upper level ridge shows up in the balloon soundings with a stout stable layer around 650-675mb. This flat ridge will continue to produce a bit of a warm-up along with lights winds and dry conditions through early Monday.
The short term period is forecast to be a bit calmer with the upper pattern generally consisting of northwest flow and ridging. With the upper trough swinging through the area, the flow above the area will be a bit weaker than yesterday which is limiting how gusty it will get during the day.
206 AM MDT Sun May 26 2024 - Showers and Thunderstorms today - Warmer and drier for the first half of the week with thunderstorms returning for the second half of the week. Current surface map places weak trough across the Northern Plains.
(Sunday through Monday night) With an upper level ridge extending across the Gulf of Mexico, west- southwest steering flow will be in place, before a cold front begins to move in from the northwest late Monday. Otherwise, the next chance of showers will be from late Monday afternoon into evening along the northern SE GA counties ahead of an incoming cold front nears the area. Temperatures will be on the warmer side, with Sunday seeing the warmer daytime temperatures. The highest temperatures will be focused toward the I-95 corridor as daytime temperatures will range in the low to mid 90s with heat index values around 100 degrees.
A chance of thunderstorms Sunday afternoon and into the overnight, with a cold front bringing another chance of showers and thunderstorms on Monday. Cooler and drier conditions return through the end of the week. As of 200 AM Sunday: Picking up Monday night, the upper low lifts off toward the NE and any remaining boundary should be out of the area by this time.
Warmer today as a warming trend kicks off through the week. Warmer today compared to yesterday as the upper low responsible for the drizzle the last couple of days finally moves out and a broad ridge builds in its wake.
Monday high pressure will dominate and keep the shower and thunderstorm activity out of the forecast.
Associated with this trough is a potent low-pressure system which produced significant severe weather across the central plains makes its way NE. High temperatures will warm into the low to mid 70s, whereas east of I-35 will reach the low to mid 60s due to higher amounts of cloud cover.
Sunday is expected to be mostly dry under high pressure, but thunderstorms will returning Sunday night into Memorial Day. A warm front approaches late in the day on Sunday as low pressure ejects out of the Plains. Aided by daytime heating and slow passage of a cold front, yet another round of strong to severe thunderstorms is possible with our area again outlined in a Marginal Risk. Machine learning comes a bit more aggressive with an extension of severe probabilities back into our area from the east, but one potential limiting factor may be morning cloud cover as NBM spreads pin even 60-70% coverage on the low end of the distribution. Highs Monday will be thus be cooler than those over the weekend with mid 70s most likely.
A cold front will drop southeastward through eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas during the afternoon.
(Now through Monday) Dry and warm conditions expected today as the upper ridge amplifies over the area. Strong subsidence under the ridge will act to suppress shower and storm development. Monday will be more active as the ridge flattens and an upper trough moves across the Mississippi River Valley.
322 AM PDT Sun May 26 2024 Temperatures will warm up today with high pressure building over the region. High temperatures will be warmer than average for this time of year as highs rise into the mid 80's in valleys west of the Cascades. Perhaps the main risk here is cold water safety during the holiday weekend as people recreating near cooler rivers are at higher risk of cold water shock.
Thunderstorms are ongoing across the Ozarks along and south of a lifting warm front.
314 AM PDT Sun May 26 2024 Dry weather returns on Sunday and Monday with temperatures warming back into 70s and 80s with a ridge pattern over the Pacific Northwest.
A ridge of high pressure will build into the region for today and Mon, supporting generally dry, mostly sunny/clear conditions with decreasing winds.
High pressure well out in the Atlantic Ocean continues to ridge west across the Florida peninsula with the axis to the south of the forecast area. High pressure will continue to ridge across the area at the surface and aloft through Monday with generally westerly flow in place and hot and dry conditions. Temperatures will warm into the lower 90s at the coast to the mid to upper 90s inland.
Warmer and drier with more sunshine across much of the area today, with the exception of clouds and maybe a few passing showers across parts of southwest Washington.
428 AM MDT Sun May 26 2024 - Showers and Thunderstorms today - Warmer and drier for the first half of the week with thunderstorms returning for the second half of the week. Current surface map places weak trough across the Northern Plains.
We will remain dry and since this is not an amplified ridge pattern, expect normal diurnal breezes from 10-20 mph each afternoon.
As for the forecast, there is no need for any changes as the ridge remains in tact providing us pleasant conditions. High pressure will gradually shift east today through Monday.