Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
- Following storms tonight and a cold frontal passage tonight, a significant cooldown is in store the weekend.
/86/ Troughing over the region will lift north a bit Friday, allowing quasi-zonal flow aloft to exist over the region. While heat indices with this activity will be noticeably warmer than recently, the risk for advisory-level heat (105 F heat indices or higher) appears low with dewpoints generally in the lower 70s and upper 60s. /86/ Late Friday into Saturday, troughing will again begin increasing across the Lower Mississippi River Valley. In the wake of this front, some slightly cooler drier air will advect south into the CWA as high pressure builds into the region.
323 AM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025 - Cooler temperatures today with highs only in the mid to upper 60s.
152 AM EDT Fri Sep 5 2025 High pressure will extend across our area through late this week.
227 AM MDT Fri Sep 5 2025 - Near freezing temperatures expected over some areas Saturday morning. At the surface, cool high pressure resides over the area with west to northwest winds around 10-15 mph. Several locations will be near freezing late tonight, with patchy frost expected across much of the area Saturday morning. Cyclonic upper flow transitions to ridging over the weekend.
1257 AM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025 - Hot again on Friday with a chance of isolated thunderstorms Friday afternoon - Cooler temperatures with increasing rain chances return for the weekend. North of the front across the Red River Valley, temperatures are running about 10 degrees cooler. Dewpoints down in the 40s allowed temperatures down in the low 60s for lows, even mid 50s down along the I-10 corridor. Stronger cold front arrives as early as tomorrow afternoon into the Big Country.
1156 PM CDT Thu Sep 4 2025 - A cold front will move through the region Friday resulting in rain chances (40-70%) though rainfall amounts will be largely less than a quarter inch. The major synoptic system impacting our weather into the weekend will be a upper trough over eastern Canada into the Great Lakes. The first major wave of energy rotating around the trough has an associated cold front that exited into northern Arkansas this morning.
Highs are forecast slightly warmer than yesterday, ranging from the low to mid 90s. However, the drier air mass in place should keep forecast heat indices only a few degrees warmer than the actual temperature.
155 AM EDT Fri Sep 5 2025 - Breezy and briefly warmer on Friday with westerly gusts of 25 to 35 mph. Upper troughing will linger over the region into this weekend with cooler weather persisting.
158 AM EDT Fri Sep 5 2025 - Strong Winds late tonight through Friday Morning - Cool with another chance for rain Saturday - Strong Winds late tonight through Friday Morning The fast moving upper level low will move through the upper midwest and through northern Michigan tonight through Friday morning. - Cool with another chance for rain Saturday Cooler air will filter in behind this front with another front moving through Saturday.
215 AM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025 - A cold front brings rain chances (40-70%) to the area today. - Cooler and dry this weekend with highs in the 70s. An associated cold front pushes southward through the area through this morning, being the focus for scattered showers and a few thunderstorms. This remains on the higher end of available instability, thus limiting our confidence in embedded thunderstorms through today and tonight. Cooler temperatures will accompany this frontal passage today and widespread clouds/rain chances. The cooler airmass gradually filters into the area tonight, with lows ranging from upper 40s to lower 50s areawide. This will generally support a drier and cooler weekend, with highs in the 70s to near 80, and lows in the upper 40s to 50s.
- Sub-freezing temperatures possible across the western half of the state Friday night, and most of the state Saturday night. Therefore, allowed the High Wind Warning and the Wind Advisory to expire on time. Maximum gusts have mostly hovered around 55 to 60 mph so far during the afternoon, and the recent expansion of the High Wind Warning is tracking well. A northerly cyclonic flow remains over the region on Friday as the departing clipper gets wrapped into a deeper downstream upper low spinning over Ontario. Surface ridging is forecast to emerge from Saskatchewan through the western Dakotas Friday night. Quiet weather is expected on Saturday as surface ridging slides eastward, but highs will remain well below normal, mostly in the upper 50s to mid 60s.
938 PM MDT Thu Sep 4 2025 - Cold front passing through today is bringing strong northwest winds. - Near freezing temperatures expected over some areas Friday and Saturday morning. Current surface analysis shows the strong cold front mostly through our CWA this afternoon, stretching from northeastern SD down into southwestern SD and central Wyoming. Upper air models show northwest flow over the FA, with narrow upper ridge over the far western CONUS. Cooler temperatures are expected following this cold front, with lows tonight in the 40s across the plains, while some areas of the higher elevation Black Hills could get below freezing.
Cooler conditions are expected over the weekend. By late Friday evening, a new cold front is expected to advance into the region.
1035 PM CDT Thu Sep 4 2025 - Another cold front will move through the area late tonight into Friday morning.
- Cooler temperatures with increasing rain chances return for the weekend. (Today and tonight) One more hot day across the area today before cooler temperatures arrive for the weekend, along with increasing rain chances. A cold front will arrive across the Big Country late this afternoon and spread south across the remainder of the forecast area this evening. While the higher rain chances are expected over the weekend, isolated showers and storms will be possible this afternoon, primarily across the Big Country and Concho Valley. Showers and a few thunderstorms are expected to increase late tonight into Saturday morning, with the highest POPs from the Concho Valley and Heartland southward.
Today will be the warmest day is a week or so with afternoon highs topping out in the low to mid 90s. By this afternoon, a cold front will gradually approach the forecast area from the NW.
- Toasty Temps and scattered thunderstorms ahead of a cold front. Thunderstorm activity will be limited to northern Georgia out a head of the approaching cold front which is really the only source of lift available in the area.
139 AM EDT Fri Sep 5 2025 (Rest of today through Friday) The persistent mid to upper level longwave trough will continue to remain in place across the Eastern Seaboard through the rest of today and into Friday.
428 AM EDT Fri Sep 5 2025 * A cold front will move through late tonight and Saturday with several rounds of showers and a chance of a gusty thunderstorm across the eastern half of the state. * High pressure then controls the wx for a week.
241 AM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025 - A cold front will pass through this morning, helping to promote breezy west winds (25-30 mph) and a hint of smoke.
1004 PM CDT Thu Sep 4 2025 - Fall-like temperatures will continue into the weekend as an unseasonably strong system brings much cooler air to the Northern Plains.
1134 PM MDT Thu Sep 4 2025 - A strong cold front will push through the CWA this afternoon, bringing a winds shift along with stronger winds.
(Today through Saturday) Friday should be a hot one across Central Alabama, with highs in the low to mid 90s.
Issued at 235 AM MDT Fri Sep 5 2025 High pressure will continue to weaken over the area and monsoon moisture move into the area from our south and west today. There is still some lingering valley smoke/haze (AQI in the low 50s) across southeast Idaho with light smoke moving into the area over the Montana Divide with high pressure continuing to break down.
The overall pattern is dominated by a slow moving trough off the coast that will bring a cooling trend with continued marine layer clouds and coastal drizzle Saturday morning.
The upper pattern over the central and eastern CONUS continues to be dominated by an upper low over Ontario. The cold front remains on track to pass south through the area late this evening into overnight hours. A final, weaker front passes Saturday with again high pressure move into the area Saturday night.
Despite good mixing through approximately the 800 mb layer, these cooler temperatures will only allow highs to rise to the upper 50s to low 60s.
529 AM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025 - A cold front will pass through this morning, helping to promote breezy west winds (25-30 mph) and a hint of smoke.
With the dense fog and cloud from the morning precipitation temperatures are running several degrees cooler than previously forecasted as the sun hasn't had much time to make it to the surface.
800 AM EDT Fri Sep 5 2025 * A cold front will move through late tonight and Saturday with several rounds of showers and a chance of a gusty thunderstorm across the eastern half of the state. * High pressure then controls the wx for a week.
- Sub-freezing temperatures possible across the western half of the state late tonight into early Saturday morning.
- A much cooler air mass will persist through the upcoming weekend with temperatures 10 to 20 degrees below normal. Vorticity lobes will keep rotating into the region today in the upper trough that has dug into the northern Plains. Saturday evening, an upper level low pressure system sits off to our northeast over southern Ontario.
525 AM MDT Fri Sep 5 2025 - Temperatures continue to cool down each day - Isolated dry thunderstorms expected today - Coverage for showers and thunderstorms still increases over the weekend Issued at 235 AM MDT Fri Sep 5 2025 High pressure will continue to weaken over the area and monsoon moisture move into the area from our south and west today. There is still some lingering valley smoke/haze (AQI in the low 50s) across southeast Idaho with light smoke moving into the area over the Montana Divide with high pressure continuing to break down.
628 AM EDT Fri Sep 5 2025 High pressure will extend across our area through late this week.
503 AM EDT Fri Sep 5 2025 * A cold front will move through late tonight and Saturday with several rounds of showers and a chance of a gusty thunderstorm across the eastern half of the state. * High pressure then controls the wx for a week.
Low-level easterly flow will support a muggier air mass, with surface dewpoints currently averaging in the lower 70s. Highs are forecast slightly warmer than yesterday, ranging from the low to mid 90s. However, the drier air mass in place should keep forecast heat indices only a few degrees warmer than the actual temperature.
619 AM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025 (Today through Saturday) Friday should be a hot one across Central Alabama, with highs in the low to mid 90s.
527 AM MDT Fri Sep 5 2025 - Much cooler temperatures today, about 6 to 12 degrees cooler, with highs generally in the 70s.
623 AM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025 - Cooler temperatures today with highs only in the mid to upper 60s.
545 AM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025 - A cold front brings rain chances (40-70%) to the area today. - Cooler and dry this weekend with highs in the 70s. An associated cold front pushes southward through the area through this morning, being the focus for scattered showers and a few thunderstorms. This remains on the higher end of available instability, thus limiting our confidence in embedded thunderstorms through today and tonight. Cooler temperatures will accompany this frontal passage today and widespread clouds/rain chances. The cooler airmass gradually filters into the area tonight, with lows ranging from upper 40s to lower 50s areawide. This will generally support a drier and cooler weekend, with highs in the 70s to near 80, and lows in the upper 40s to 50s.
527 AM MDT Fri Sep 5 2025 - Near freezing temperatures expected over some areas Saturday morning. At the surface, cool high pressure resides over the area with west to northwest winds around 10-15 mph. Several locations will be near freezing late tonight, with patchy frost expected across much of the area Saturday morning. Cyclonic upper flow transitions to ridging over the weekend.
107 PM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025 - A cold front brings rain chances (40-70%) to the area today. - Cooler and dry this weekend with highs in the 70s. An associated cold front pushes southward through the area through this morning, being the focus for scattered showers and a few thunderstorms. This remains on the higher end of available instability, thus limiting our confidence in embedded thunderstorms through today and tonight. Cooler temperatures will accompany this frontal passage today and widespread clouds/rain chances. The cooler airmass gradually filters into the area tonight, with lows ranging from upper 40s to lower 50s areawide. This will generally support a drier and cooler weekend, with highs in the 70s to near 80, and lows in the upper 40s to 50s.
Pattern Synopsis and Forecast: Anomalous upper low continues to spin off to the north tonight, with a short wave piece being pulled northward into MI into early Saturday. Tough to tell the exact thermodynamic profile, but low topped convection certainly possible as the cooler temps aloft ooze overhead.
- Cooler temperatures with rain chances this weekend. (Today and tonight) One more hot day across the area today before cooler temperatures arrive for the weekend, along with increasing rain chances. A cold front will arrive across the Big Country late this afternoon and spread south across the remainder of the forecast area this evening. While the higher rain chances are expected over the weekend, isolated showers and storms will be possible this afternoon, primarily across the Big Country and Concho Valley. Showers and a few thunderstorms are expected to increase late tonight into Saturday morning, with the highest POPs from the Concho Valley and Heartland southward.
135 PM EDT Fri Sep 5 2025 Showers and possible thunderstorms return tonight through part of Saturday with a crossing cold front.
- Cooler tomorrow behind the front with additional chances for showers and thunderstorms.
214 PM EDT Fri Sep 5 2025 High pressure will allow for fair skies early tonight before a cold front moves into the area on Saturday.
18z/1pm surface analysis shows a cold front south of the Ohio River. while a sprawling ridge of high pressure builds southward out of the Prairie Provinces of Canada into the Central Plains. followed by partly to mostly sunny skies and pleasant conditions with highs in the lower to middle 70s.
1232 PM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025 (Rest of Today and Tonight) An active period of weather is on tap for the Tennessee Valley late this afternoon and evening into portions of tonight as a cold front slowly approaches the region from the northwest. Ahead of the front, deeper southwesterly winds and ample sunshine should warm temperatures into the low to mid 90s in most locations. Hodographs really don't favor even a lower-end tornado threat, especially coupled with the higher LCLs.
The upper level trough over the upper Midwest and Great Lakes will gradually move eastward, taking the cool weather with it.
1228 PM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025 - Cooler temperatures today with highs only in the mid to upper 60s.
- A strong cold front continues to move through the region today with a large temperature gradient across the front.
Lows in northwest Minnesota could fall into the low to mid 30s.
(This evening through Saturday) Surface analysis depicts a cold front to our northwest, extending from North Texas through the Ohio Valley.
(Rest of Today and Tonight) An active period of weather is on tap for the Tennessee Valley late this afternoon and evening into portions of tonight as a cold front slowly approaches the region from the northwest. Ahead of the front, deeper southwesterly winds and ample sunshine should warm temperatures into the low to mid 90s in most locations. Hodographs really don't favor even a lower-end tornado threat, especially coupled with the higher LCLs.
1133 AM MDT Fri Sep 5 2025 - Near freezing temperatures expected over some areas Saturday morning. At the surface, cool high pressure resides over the area with west to northwest winds around 10-15 mph. Several locations will be near freezing late tonight, with patchy frost expected across much of the area Saturday morning. Cyclonic upper flow transitions to ridging over the weekend.
Through Saturday: The southern extent of a mid-level trough axis extending from a low over far northern Wisconsin will exit to the south and east by sunrise. A 50+ knot LLJ ahead of an incoming cold front is currently crossing northern Illinois per recent KLOT VWP data. WNW gusts up to 40 mph are possible this morning before the low-level gradient flow weakens with time this afternoon. The mid-level trough crossing the area early this morning will ultimately shear out across central Illinois by this afternoon as a 90 knot mid-level jet exits to the east. Otherwise, expect an unseasonably cool period to persist into the weekend with daytime highs in the mid 60s today and upper 60s on Saturday, and nighttime lows tonight in the low 40s for interior northern Illinois to around 50 near Lake Michigan.
Due to cloudy conditions temperatures this morning are struggling to make it into the lower 80s at the moment. An Atlantic ridge will lift northward out of Cuba into the Keys and South Florida this weekend.
1231 PM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025 - A cold front will pass through this morning, helping to promote breezy west winds (25-30 mph) and a hint of smoke.
- Rain comes to an end early Saturday, giving way to cooler temperatures this weekend. Southwesterly flow continues to stream in warm, moist air this morning ahead of a potent cold frontal passage, setting the stage for an unstable atmosphere for strong to severe storms to fire in. CAMs continue to favor the better severe parameters (higher SRH) being along a line from the southwest up across the Cumberland Plateau, lining up with the timing of the cold front. Temperatures will be markedly cooler tomorrow with highs only getting into the 70s and overnight lows in the 50s. A large area of high pressure building over the southwest will grow through the week, pushing temperatures up into the upper 80s to low 90s by the end of the week.
The 12Z KLIX RAOB and 12Z HRRR forecast soundings shows plenty of dry air in the low to mid-troposphere, all above a well-mixed dry adiabatic mixed layer. Meanwhile aloft in the upper-levels, a strong ridge centered over north-central MX and deep troughing over the northern US will surge moisture east, in the form of upper-level clouds/cirrus overnight into tomorrow.
1145 AM MDT Fri Sep 5 2025 - Temperatures continue to cool down each day - Isolated dry thunderstorms expected today - Coverage for showers and thunderstorms still increases over the weekend High pressure will continue to weaken over the area and monsoon moisture move into the area from our south and west today. There is still some lingering valley smoke/haze (AQI in the low 50s) across southeast Idaho with light smoke moving into the area over the Montana Divide with high pressure continuing to break down.
Based on radar trends/CAMs, showers and thunderstorms are likely to continue/redevelop through at least early/mid-afternoon in vicinity of the aforementioned cold front sinking slowly south through southwest/south central Kansas. Drier conditions are forecast Saturday as the closed upper low begins to shift eastward. Unseasonably cool temperatures are likely today as cooler air spills southward into western Kansas, lowering H85 temperatures a little below 10C by late afternoon. Combined with lingering precip/cloud cover through much of the day, look for highs only up into the 50s(F) across much of southwest Kansas into south central Kansas, generally closer to the Oklahoma border, to the lower/mid 60s(F) farther north toward the I-70 corridor.
(This evening through Saturday) An upper-level low continues to be situated over Ontario, Canada with the base of the trough extending all the way down into the Gulf, where a broad and weak area of low pressure is situated. However, the subtropical ridge axis is beginning to build back west. This is because persistent cloud cover and some rain-cooled air from earlier coastal convection is keeping temperatures only in the low-to-mid 80s through 2PM.
Issued 259 PM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025 Tonight through Saturday night: Cyclonic flow will continue over the Great Lakes through Saturday night as an upper level low sits over northern Ontario and James Bay. It will be a cool evening with a brisk westerly breeze, and temperatures dropping into the lower 40s by morning. Highs tomorrow will be in the lower 60s, similar to today. Clouds and winds will diminish overnight Sat nt and allow for lows to drop into the lower 40s once again.
A weak area of low pressure continues to meander over the east-central Gulf with weak high pressure over to the east across the Bahamas. An Atlantic ridge will lift northward out of Cuba into the Keys and South Florida this weekend.
Shower and thunderstorm coverage will increase Saturday as a Pacific trough swings inland, then decrease from south to north Saturday night as the trough moves past.
So removed slight chances for showers over south central WI, while low temps in the lower to middle 40s looks good by sunrise. Gehring Issued 259 PM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025 Tonight through Saturday night: Cyclonic flow will continue over the Great Lakes through Saturday night as an upper level low sits over northern Ontario and James Bay. It will be a cool evening with a brisk westerly breeze, and temperatures dropping into the lower 40s by morning. Highs tomorrow will be in the lower 60s, similar to today. Clouds and winds will diminish overnight Sat nt and allow for lows to drop into the lower 40s once again.
637 PM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025 (This evening through Saturday) Surface analysis depicts a cold front to our northwest, extending from North Texas through the Ohio Valley.
443 PM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025 - A cold front brings rain chances (50-90%) to the area today. - Cooler and dry this weekend with highs in the mid 70s to low 80s. A cold front and upper level disturbance will lead to increasing convective coverage and intensity, mainly along and south of I-44 late this evening into early tonight. The pattern this weekend will feature an upper ridge over the western CONUS and a trough over the central.
657 PM EDT Fri Sep 5 2025 Showers and thunderstorms return late this evening into tomorrow morning with a crossing cold front.
649 PM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025 - A cold front brings rain chances (50-90%) to the area today. - Cooler and dry this weekend with highs in the mid 70s to low 80s. A cold front and upper level disturbance will lead to increasing convective coverage and intensity, mainly along and south of I-44 late this evening into early tonight. The pattern this weekend will feature an upper ridge over the western CONUS and a trough over the central.
745 PM EDT Fri Sep 5 2025 High pressure will allow for fair skies early tonight before a cold front moves into the area on Saturday.
- Warmer conditions will persist for today, but a cold front will bring cooler temperatures and thunderstorms tonight and over the weekend. This has resulted in an influx of Pacific moisture in the region, aided by the remnants of Tropical Cyclone Lorena near Baja Mexico. Despite the cloud cover, temperatures have already climbed into the upper 80s and lower 90s, and will likely top out in the low to mid 90s.
752 PM EDT Fri Sep 5 2025 High pressure will provide quiet weather for the majority of the CWA through Saturday, although a stalled boundary offshore will bring a low-end chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms to the coast tomorrow.
Will be watching an outflow boundary trailing west- southwestward from the Tennessee convection just ahead of the cold front. These boundaries, the cold front moving through from the northwest, and cyclonic flow aloft around the base of the anomalous trough across the central/eastern US/Canada will contribute to higher chances of showers/storms.
613 PM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025 - A strong cold front continues to move through the region today with a large temperature gradient across the front.