Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Widespread rainfall continues across northern California and southern Oregon as a low pressure system moves over the area.
(The rest of today) Latest surface observations/analysis depicts a weak cold front positioned just south of the I-44 corridor in northeast OK. The cold front will continue to progress at a slow pace southeastward through the afternoon.
(This evening through Sunday) Main concern for today remains the threat for severe weather this afternoon which is dependent on the location of the cold front. As of 2 pm, the cold front is located along a line from the Guadalupe Mountains to Midland and is continuing to move south but gradually slowing as it does so. This low cloud cover will keep temperatures cool tomorrow in the upper 60s to lower 70s despite the breezy southerly winds.
A weak cold front then pushes into the area on Sunday, providing more showers and thunderstorms.
Another trough will keep temperatures cool for the second half of the week but conditions will remain dry. Look for a strong but mainly dry low pressure system to swing across Arizona tonight and on Sunday. Winds will strengthen overnight across much of northern Arizona as the low approaches. Further south winds will gust to around 40 mph with a Wind Advisory for the higher elevation locations of Yavapai County. The low will bring with it dynamics for upward motion and draw in limited moisture for a slight chance of showers from about Flagstaff northwestward Sunday afternoon and evening. Cooler on Sunday with the passing low and associated cold front.
1238 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024 (Today and tonight) A cold front has moved into far NW parts of the fa and will continue to move across parts of the area today. Showers and thunderstorms will continue to develop and move across the area through the morning hours with the highest chances near/behind the front.
There could also be additional storms that form along a stalled cold front along and south of I-44 this evening.
1124 AM MDT Sat May 4 2024 - Mainly dry and warmer conditions are anticipated for the weekend.
(Through Tonight) A cold front is making southward progress across parts of northeast Oklahoma, positioned north of I-44 as seen in both radar and surface observations.
542 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024 - Cooler through tomorrow, with highs in the 60s and dry weather expected.
647 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024 (This evening through Sunday night) The CWA remains along the northern edge of an upper level ridge where the flow is fairly zonal. Global models suggest that the trajectory of this trough will be slightly closer to the CWA than the one today.
The top three places with the highest rainfall totals for the entire region in the last 24 hours were Marin County (1-1.
Heavy rain bands are expected to persist across the forecast area into Sunday morning as a cold front moves through. The cold front is currently advancing eastward across Baker and Malheur Counties, with radar showing heavy rain bands along the Idaho/Oregon Border and more precipitation moving north from northern Nevada. The cold front will continue its northeastward movement late tonight, with the low center shifting into northwestern Nevada and then progressing east along the Nevada border towards northwest Utah by late Sunday night.
(This evening through Sunday) Rain unfolding as expected as of midday with the heaviest having pushed through with the initial cold front this morning. 5" with the highest amounts being in the coastal ranges.
A deep upper level trough brought cold fronts through the are this morning. Near freezing to freezing temperatures for some interior valleys are forecast, but expected fog and lingering cloud cover will hold the temperature up for some valleys over the next couple of nights.
Currently - A strong high pressure system centered broadly over New Brunswick stretches a robust ridge south southwestward along the Atlantic coast that then arcs southwest and west across the Gulf of Mexico. Short Term Update - The previously mentioned ridge will remain in firm control of the broader are through the overnight period. Forecast soundings suggest the lower level inhibition will weaken substantially while moisture will tick upwards. A ridge running along the Atlantic coast and arcing across Florida into the Gulf of Mexico is maintaining moderate to fresh easterly breezes on Keys waters this evening.
957 PM EDT Sat May 4 2024 High pressure will slowly exit to the east through Sunday.
555 PM EDT Sat May 4 2024 High pressure will slowly exit to the east through Sunday.
628 PM EDT Sat May 4 2024 Showers will move northward into the region tonight ahead of a warm front to our south.
Early this afternoon, a weak cold front was moving slowly south across far southern portions of the Big Country and extends west to near Midland and west to the New Mexico border. Expect cooler temperatures tomorrow, with highs mainly in the upper 70s.
636 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024 (This evening through Sunday) Main concern for today remains the threat for severe weather this afternoon which is dependent on the location of the cold front. As of 2 pm, the cold front is located along a line from the Guadalupe Mountains to Midland and is continuing to move south but gradually slowing as it does so. This low cloud cover will keep temperatures cool tomorrow in the upper 60s to lower 70s despite the breezy southerly winds.
639 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024 (Through Tonight) A cold front is making southward progress across parts of northeast Oklahoma, positioned north of I-44 as seen in both radar and surface observations.
At the surface, high pressure resides across the Northern and Central Plains, with strong low pressure over Idaho. Transient upper ridge will quickly shift east today as large upper low shifts into the Great Basin area. Upper low crosses the Rockies late tonight into Monday, with more widespread rain showers and thunderstorms expected across northeast Wyoming and far western SD. As the strong surface trof shifts through the area, gusty west to northwest winds are expected, which may require another wind advisory across the SD plains. Temperatures should be cool enough Monday night for some light snow accumulations across the higher elevations of the Black Hills.
Rain with embedded thunderstorm chances will increase from the southwest later tonight, and persist through Sunday, mainly over far southern and southeast Kansas, as an upper trough traverses the Southern Plains.
The top three places with the highest rainfall totals for the entire region in the last 24 hours were Marin County (1-1. (This evening through Sunday) Rain unfolding as expected as of midday with the heaviest having pushed through with the initial cold front this morning. 5" with the highest amounts being in the coastal ranges.
The gradient along the southern flank of this high supports 15 to 20 knot east-southeasterlies at the Reef. Overnight lows are once again in the upper 70s and dewpoints are now in the lower 70s.
Highs today will generally range from the low to mid 90s, except for the 80s near the coast.
Ridging will continue to build across the region today and will dominate the weather pattern through much of the upcoming week. By mid week, substantial ridging will lead to drier air and near zero rain chances. The next chance for rain doesn't look to materialize until the end of the forecast period as a trough sweeps across the eastern U.
1218 AM EDT Sun May 5 2024 High pressure will slowly exit to the east through Sunday. A cold front approaches Sunday night, then crosses the area Monday and Monday evening.
Mid level subsidence on Monday will keep a lid of diurnal convection, and kept rain chances on the low end.
Another trough will keep temperatures cool for the second half of the week but conditions will remain dry. The brunt of its impacts will remain to our north, but high winds, cooler temperatures, and even a chance at rain and snow are forecast for our CWA tomorrow. Look for a strong but mainly dry low pressure system to swing across Arizona tonight and on Sunday. Winds will strengthen overnight across much of northern Arizona as the low approaches. Further south winds will gust to around 40 mph with a Wind Advisory for the higher elevation locations of Yavapai County. The low will bring with it dynamics for upward motion and draw in limited moisture for a slight chance of showers from about Flagstaff northwestward Sunday afternoon and evening. Cooler on Sunday with the passing low and associated cold front.
Stagnant low level ridging remains dominant today with very light southerly flow.
Down low, drying will be harder to come by as moist upslope flow within cool surface ridging keeps stratus locked in through much of the morning. This story changes this afternoon as the ridge pulls away allowing winds to veer S-SE which when combined with improved heating/mixing should erode our 1500-2000 foot thick layer of clouds. Height falls tonight preceding a vigorous upper trough will spur breezy southerly flow and deeper moisture advection.
350 AM EDT Sun May 5 2024 Atlantic high pressure will remain across the Southeast U.
1242 AM CDT Sun May 5 2024 (This evening through Sunday) Main concern for today remains the threat for severe weather this afternoon which is dependent on the location of the cold front. As of 2 pm, the cold front is located along a line from the Guadalupe Mountains to Midland and is continuing to move south but gradually slowing as it does so. This low cloud cover will keep temperatures cool tomorrow in the upper 60s to lower 70s despite the breezy southerly winds.
- Strong afternoon thunderstorms possible with the passage of a cold front. This wave will weaken and push the east coast ridge out over the Atlantic. A surface cold front, trailing the upper wave, will cross the region today, reaching the eastern edge of the forecast area by early evening. As the aforementioned cold front moves eastward across Ohio early this afternoon, showers and a few storms will redevelop and accompany the boundary as it clears the rest of the forecast area. Weak cold air advection behind today's cold front will spread somewhat drier air over the area.
- High pressure Sunday with low chances for potential frost Sunday night/Monday morning.
Potent Spring storm system moving across the Great Basin today will continue to bring strong winds to the Mojave Desert and much cooler temperatures.
Dry high pressure will build overhead by Wed with well above normal temperatures likely during the middle and late portions of the work-week. Shower and thunderstorm chances increase Fri due to an approaching frontal system and upper low. across Southeast NC, as a couple mid-level s/w trofs push across the FA and thru the low amplitude upper ridge.
- High pressure builds in the latter half of Sunday through Monday bringing drier conditions and closer to average temperatures.
1142 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024 - Cooler through tomorrow, with highs in the 60s and dry weather expected. Temperatures are currently in the upper 50s to low 60s and should get up into the low-to-mid 60s this afternoon. High pressure currently sits across the state of Nebraska leading to these clearing skies and the northerly winds across the eastern part of the state.
(Today through Monday) Weak ridging remains over the area today and tomorrow, providing warm temperatures to continue to build over the area. Those cells will be competing with the subsidence of the ridge, so that is mainly why the coverage should be scattered in nature. Needless to say, the CAPE and lack of wind shear with the suppression from the ridge supports maybe a strong storm or two, with a marginally severe storm possible in the early afternoon as the outflow from the complex passes through. Slight ridging is still expected to be over the area with continued onshore flow. So, although we will have adequate instability again (>2000 j/kg SBCAPE), a lack of a trigger like an outflow boundary and the suppression from the ridge will keep rain coverage very isolated to scattered at most.
A negatively tilted upper level trough will sweep across the Great Basin tonight and will move across Colorado and into western South Dakota by late Monday afternoon. A strong low level jet will develop over our northwest sections tonight as the base of the trough sweeps over this area.
- Breezy southerly winds occur with minimum relative humidity in the low to mid-30% range on Monday.
(Monday Night through next Sunday) The weather pattern for the upcoming week is a series of troughs and surface boundaries.
128 AM EDT Sun May 5 2024 - Showers moving east through the area tonight - Dry Monday, then chances for showers/storms A cold front is situated north/south out over Lake Michigan at 02Z. - A few showers,maybe some thunder this evening, quiet Sunday Showers/thunderstorms will try to get their act together this afternoon in Illinois and Wisconsin will move across Lake Michigan and western Indiana early this evening along with a weak cold front. High pressure begins to build in Sunday with stubborn cloud cover lingering through much of the day.
Clear skies with high pressure dominating today. With the high pressure over us there will be little pressure gradient and light winds this morning.
(Today) Showers and storms will overspread the area today as an upper trough axis will lift northeast from TX into AR and MO tonight. Rain will begin to taper off from SW to NE this afternoon and evening as the upper trough lifts through the area.
A pattern shift can be expected by midweek as upper level ridging builds over our region, bringing drier and a much warmer conditions to our area.
A low pressure system has moved into northern California, the counter clockwise or cyclonic flow is pushing showers north into Lemhi County, ID currently. Cooler temperatures associated with this system will bring snow levels down to about 5000 feet by Monday morning.
There could be late morning storm development along this trough across northwest KS as the initial wave and ht falls overspread the area. Exact location of afternoon development remains in question but may be somewhere in the highway 81/CNK to ICT area developing ENE from that area.
(Today and tonight) The cold front has been quite progressive over the last 24 hours and is now near the CA/Mexico border. This will cause surface temperatures to drop into the low 40s for most areas away from the immediate coast or bay shore. This cold air is also causing some instability, with the low level lapse rates around the conditionally unstable threshold of 6.
(Sunday through Monday night) Upper level high pressure ridge will build over the forecast area Sunday.
High pressure will continue at the surface. 500mb trough is located along the SE coast of the US.
626 AM CDT Sun May 5 2024 (Today) Showers and storms will overspread the area today as an upper trough axis will lift northeast from TX into AR and MO tonight. Rain will begin to taper off from SW to NE this afternoon and evening as the upper trough lifts through the area.
804 AM EDT Sun May 5 2024 Ridging will continue to build across the region today and will dominate the weather pattern through much of the upcoming week. By mid week, substantial ridging will lead to drier air and near zero rain chances. The next chance for rain doesn't look to materialize until the end of the forecast period as a trough sweeps across the eastern U.
1040 AM EDT Sun May 5 2024 A warm front will lift north through the region today, and then a cold front works its way through the region late Monday and Monday night.
Drier, warmer conditions return this week with gusty north to east winds mid-week. Temperatures are currently trending approximately 10 to 25 degrees cooler than this time yesterday morning, valid at 230 AM PDT. Highs will be slightly warmer than yesterday, however still well below normal for early May climatology. Valley highs are forecast to be in the low to mid 60s, with 40s to 50s in the foothills and 30s to low 50s in the mountains. Drier and warmer weather returns to interior northern California this week as the influence of high pressure returns to the region. As high pressure builds over the eastern Pacific and troughing continues over the Great Basin, increasing north to east winds are favored.
The approach of a strong Pacific cold front, falling heights and PV1. The temperature forecast today through Sunday is on the warmer side of the forecast envelop for highs in the 60s to near 70 both days and lows in the 50s tonight. This low will deepen to near 980mb Monday night.
Temperatures are generally in the low/mid 70s across the CWA with dewpoints in the mid/upper 60s.
741 AM EDT Sun May 5 2024 Atlantic high pressure will remain across the Southeast U.
Highs today will range from the low 80s in Northeast Louisiana to near 90 in the east. Expect convection to be isolated to scattered as remnant storm activity in the high plains will be the main factor, as redevelopment will be possible in our area as heating occurs and instability increases by mid-day. Afternoon high temperatures will range from the low-80s in the west to the high-80s in the east.
- Gradual cooler and quieter trend for the second half of the week. Monday continues to be the main day of concern as the deep upper low to our west approaches. Low pressure initially deepens Sunday night over the High Plains before pushing a cold front east on Monday. The low-level shear does increase over time, especially into the evening. The threat does look to subside after midnight as storms shift east of the area and cooler/drier air gradually moves in from the west. The pattern gradually turns cooler and quieter through the end of the week as the large upper low slowly shifts east.
Temperatures along the Keys are near 80 degrees, and are coupled with dew points in the low to mid 70s making for a morning that feels fairly muggy. While satellite shows some clouds throughout the forecast area, the majority of them are simply passing by without producing rainfall or blocking out the sunshine. High pressure over the western North Atlantic will maintain moderate to fresh easterly breezes for the next several days.
Scattered snow and graupel showers along with a few thunderstorms are expected across northeastern Nevada today as a low pressure system moves over the great basin region.
Expect convection to be isolated to scattered as remnant storm activity in the high plains will be the main factor, as redevelopment will be possible in our area as heating occurs and instability increases by mid-day. Afternoon high temperatures will range from the low-80s in the west to the high-80s in the east.
Increasing chances of convection across the higher elevations is expected this afternoon once again, but overall, rain chances will be limited to slight chance/chance (<50 percent) for most areas.
1014 AM EDT Sun May 5 2024 Atlantic high pressure will remain across the Southeast U.
However, highs still look to be on track to reach the lower 80s.
For early Monday morning, a Freeze Warning has been issued for the Shasta and Scott valleys for expected temperatures in the high 20s to low 30s.
The highest coverage will be northwest of I-65 where the greater lift will be.
Temperatures should reach the lower 70s to near 80 degrees. High temperatures on Monday should be a touch warmer, with readings in the upper 70s to mid 80s.
(This afternoon through Monday) Visible satellite showing ample clearing across much of the area in the wake of the cold front yesterday. There is still a bit of a hindrance in the form of some capping stability in the low to mid levels. Some areas in the highest peaks of the Santa Lucia and Santa Cruz Mtns can't rule out a sprinkle or two this afternoon, but anything outside of that seems to be a very low chance.
As the trough axis advances eastward across the area this afternoon, so will the heavy rainfall/higher rainfall rates, with the heaviest rain shifting east of the forecast area by mid- late afternoon.
We have an upper-level trough that has moved onshore out on the West Coast that will be responsible for our chance for severe weather tomorrow evening.
CAMs are in good agreement with development occurring along the cold front/dryline in central KS early to mid afternoon with storms forming into a line or broken line segment and quickly advancing eastward into the evening hours.
A strong low pressure system will cross the region this afternoon and evening bringing strong, gusty winds and isolated to scattered showers. A strong low pressure system continued to move across the western states and Arizona Sunday afternoon. For the remainder of the afternoon and into the evening look for these strong winds to continue as the low slowly heads eastward across the area. In addition, strong upward motion associated with the low will draw in just enough moisture for a shower threat.
A well formed closed low pressure circulation is moving from Oregon into southern Idaho this afternoon.
With plenty of moisture around, some showers and a a rumble of thunder will be possible during the day on Monday, but no impacts are expected with Highs a little cooler than today with the extra cloud cover.
The low pressure that brought precipitation to region yesterday is sliding into the Great Basin today. As this low ejects today, a tight pressure gradient across eastern Kern County and extreme southeastern Tulare County will lead to strong gusty winds across much of the lee slopes. Winds will diminish across the Scodie Mountains and Walker Pass this afternoon as the trough axis slides east, though strong to severe gust will continue across the typical "windy zone" along the lee slopes parallel to HWY 14 and into Mojave. However, these cool temps will be short-lived as a ridge slides closer to the West Coast and the aforementioned low slides east. Temperatures in the San Joaquin Valley have a 25 to 65% probability of seeing 90 degrees, with the westside and south ends of the Valley having the higher probabilities.
Weak upper ridging and drier air will build across the area on Monday, but there will continue to be isolated to scattered diurnal storms Monday afternoon.
Current satellite midlevel water vapor analysis shows an upper low spinning over the Great Basin with westerly flow aloft. However, these low clouds will clear much quicker tomorrow morning as the negatively tilted trough pushes into the Plains.
245 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024 -Warmer Monday as southeast winds increase with near advisory winds across the northwest.
With strong WAA in place, tomorrow will likely be the warmest day of the period with highs in the low to mid 70s.
The aforementioned deep moisture profile is expected to advect northward this evening and into Monday morning as lee cyclogenesis along the Rockies strengthens ahead of the approaching mid-level trough.
Patchy dense fog will be possible, with HREF probabilities bringing the lowest visibility over the southern Edwards Plateau and western Hill Country.
As we go into the work week ridging will start to push overhead.
For early Monday morning, a Freeze Warning has been issued for the Shasta and Scott valleys for expected temperatures in the high 20s to low 30s. Worst conditions today will be near the Cascades north of Highway 140 eastward to Winter Rim, the Warners and points east of there as low pressure to the east wraps moisture back across those areas with MVFR ceilings and occasional IFR visibility in snow showers.
Wet, warm conditions are anticipated to continue throughout the week as an elongated trough builds to our west and deep southwest flow remains. Dry air is noted on the low and mid-level water vapor over northwestern Ohio, and it may take a few hours to reach peak destabilization. Weak cold air advection behind today's cold front will spread somewhat drier air over the area.
Expect warmer temperatures on Monday, with highs in the mid 80s to lower 90s. (Monday night through next Sunday) An upper low will sit to our north for the first part of the week, keeping us in near zonal flow aloft. This combined with west/southwest winds at the surface will support warmer temperatures for the first half of the work week.