Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
208 AM CST Sat Feb 3 2024 - Showers and storms waning through the morning - A second round of widely scattered showers and isolated storms late tonight - Warmer and breezy for the upcoming business week Areal trends in KDDC WSR-88D data have been decreasing through the early morning hours. This is in response to the synoptic trof being wrapped up with drier air on the south side of the synoptic feature (aka partial dryslot).
CN (This evening through Saturday Night) An amplified upper-trough across the west will translate east overnight with an area of low-pressure deepening at the base of the trough across the Texas panhandle by midnight. Southwest flow ahead of the upper-trough will contribute to increased moisture bringing widespread cloud-cover across the region this evening. With southerly flow increasing ahead of the height falls associated with the approaching trough, PW are values forecast to increase.
Early this morning the mid level trough was located over New Mexico into west Texas with a 50 kt mid level jet rotating around the base of the trough. The moisture axis will continue to work its way northeast across the area slowly today as the mid level trough/low moves to the southeast in a blocking pattern. TOnight the deformation axis will pivot from southeast to easterly through the night as the mid level trough moves to the southeast into southeast Oklahoma.
A long skinny upper ridge is stretching from the Gulf Coast northward into Ontario. At the surface, high pressure centered over the Great Lakes expands its influence southward through the Lower Ohio Valley, driving east-northeast winds through the CWA. Cold air advection will limit warming, but sunshine will help to lift highs into the low 50s to low 60s across the CWA with cooler temperatures to the north and warmer to the south. Tonight, a low pressure system will cut across the Texas Panhandle as it passes towards Dallas. This will cause it to begin to undercut the upper ridge stretching over the CWA.
400 AM EST Sat Feb 3 2024 High pressure will ridge in from the north through Sun with temperatures at or just below normal. High pressure returns for the mid to late week period along with milder temps. 5H trof axis to swing off the NC and SC Coasts this morning, taking the remaining moisture with it. CAA and dry air infiltrate the area as high pressure ridges in from the Great Lakes. An elongated and somewhat stalled upper ridge to stretch from the Carolinas to the Great Lakes by the end of this period. This the result of a meandering and expansive upper low over the NW Atlantic. By the end of this period, a mid-level low will begin to undercut the upper ridge to the south as a result of the blocking situation downstream.
127 AM EST Sat Feb 3 2024 High pressure brings dry, milder weather for the weekend. An area of high pressure centered over the Great Lakes region will bring dry weather and abundant sunshine to the CWA during the day. After a cool start to the day, temperatures are expected to warm above normal with highs reaching mid 40s to 50s in the lowlands and 40s in the higher elevations. Quiet weather continues through tonight as high pressure and upper ridging remain in control overhead.
313 AM EST Sat Feb 3 2024 High pressure will nose southward across our region, and usher in a drier airmass that will erode the low deck of clouds that has been upon our region.
1027 PM CST Fri Feb 2 2024 (This evening through Saturday) Upper troughing is continuing to push eastward from the Desert Southwest while maintaining its negative tilt. Enhanced upper diffluence ahead of the trough is evident on water vapor imagery. Dewpoints will be in the low to upper 50s ahead of the dryline and will be more than enough for convection to develop. The upper trough will transition to a closed low this evening. Winds will also be on the breezy side, 15-30 mph with the highest winds occurring across the southwest quarter of the FA.
1117 PM CST Fri Feb 2 2024 Dry and unseasonably warm temperatures will cease on Saturday as a backdoor cold front and associated low pressure system bring showers back to the Mid-South. The highest rainfall totals will exist for areas along and south of I-22, where up to 1.
A blocked pattern leaves high pressure in control for much of the upcoming week with cool but sunny days, cold nights, and persistent north winds. As of 0345 AM EST, an Omega Block pattern has developed aloft, with high-amplitude upper ridging over the Mississippi Valley and upper troughing extending south from Nova Scotia. Nighttime lows will be in the teens for most of the region, with upper single digits in the highest terrain of the southern Adirondacks and Greens and low 20s in the Mid- Hudson Valley. The upper pattern will transition to a Rex Block as an upper trough digging south over the Southern Rockies undercuts the upper ridge over the Mississippi Valley.
High pressure, dry conditions, and plenty of sunshine in the forecast for the short term. Discussion: In the upper levels, an omega block ridge extends from Florida to the Great Lakes/Canada today. Late tonight, the ridge will push eastward as a cut-off low moves into the Southeast. High pressure is centered over the Great Lakes. This forecast period will be dry since the low will not bring POPs into the region until tomorrow. With ridging overhead and ample sunshine, highs today will be 5 to 10 degrees above normal. Clouds will start to move into the region late tonight as the low moves into the Southeast.
(Today) Large upper ridge axis remains positioned from the western Gulf states northward into the northern Plains/upper MS Valley this early Sat morning. A weak backdoor cold front settling into the area today will at least translate into slightly cooler temps compared to Fri, with highs mainly in the lower/mid 60s for most spots.
1242 AM EST Sat Feb 3 2024 High pressure will nose southward across our region, and usher in a drier airmass that will erode the low deck of clouds that has been upon our region.
Easterly flow around the Great Lakes high pressure area was undercutting the lower-level moisture and resulting in low clouds and areas of fog over much of the forecast area as of 08Z.
Early morning satellite imagery shows a H5 trough lifting north out of the Great Basin which will continue to lead to scattered showers throughout the day of which will remain predominantly snow with rain mixing in at times particularly below 5000 feet. Wrap-around bands of moisture will continue through tonight into early Sunday as this H5 trough lifts north into MT as progressively drier conditions fill in SW to NE with lingering snow throughout the morning hours up into Clark and Fremont Counties.
926 AM EST Sat Feb 3 2024 High pressure will ridge in from the north through Sun with temperatures at or just below normal. High pressure returns for the mid to late week period along with milder temps. 5H trof axis to swing off the NC and SC Coasts this morning, taking the remaining moisture with it. CAA and dry air infiltrate the area as high pressure ridges in from the Great Lakes. An elongated and somewhat stalled upper ridge to stretch from the Carolinas to the Great Lakes by the end of this period. This the result of a meandering and expansive upper low over the NW Atlantic. By the end of this period, a mid-level low will begin to undercut the upper ridge to the south as a result of the blocking situation downstream.
While no PoPs are included with the current forecast across southwest Oklahoma and western north Texas, we will need to watch for the possibility of at least isolated high based showers near core of upper low late this afternoon and early evening. This will be most pronounced across northern Oklahoma with showers spreading south across all but far western/southwest Oklahoma and western north Texas late tonight and Sunday on backside of departing upper low.
Moisture will linger through much of the day today, before high pressure temporarily strengthens across the region tonight through Sunday.
A negatively tilted upper level trough is amplifying as it pushes its way east into the Central CONUS. The highest rain chances will remain constrained to our southwestern counties (PoPs 60-80%) with measurable rainfall struggling to penetrate past the NE/IA border. Long Range: Upper level ridging will build into the central CONUS at the start of the work week as calm and clear weather returns. Another upper level trough is expected to push into the Central Plains by mid week.
652 AM CST Sat Feb 3 2024 Today and Tonight: As a strong subtropical jet streak continues to edge farther east toward the Gulf Coast today, a closed low pressure system will develop over the Southern Plains - at the base of an extremely negatively-titled trough. Water vapor satellite imagery early this morning shows the rapid poleward advection of moisture, with some cloud features observed to be stretching northward over the Plains at over 100 mph as the low is deepening. Closer to the surface, we can see the development of a low pressure circulation around East Texas that is sharpening a line of showers and thunderstorms moving into southwestern Louisiana at this hour. Deeper moisture and better rain chances will shift northward into the evening as the trough axis extends farther east along the Gulf Coast.
There is a 30% chance for light freezing drizzle through 10 AM. There is less than 20% chance for freezing drizzle later tonight and early Sunday morning.
A relative lul in winds is forecast overnight, before even stronger winds develop Sunday with another push of high pressure into the region.
Expect high temperatures to be about 20 degrees cooler Sunday.
Today and Tonight: As a strong subtropical jet streak continues to edge farther east toward the Gulf Coast today, a closed low pressure system will develop over the Southern Plains - at the base of an extremely negatively-titled trough. Water vapor satellite imagery early this morning shows the rapid poleward advection of moisture, with some cloud features observed to be stretching northward over the Plains at over 100 mph as the low is deepening. Closer to the surface, we can see the development of a low pressure circulation around East Texas that is sharpening a line of showers and thunderstorms moving into southwestern Louisiana at this hour. Deeper moisture and better rain chances will shift northward into the evening as the trough axis extends farther east along the Gulf Coast.
A backdoor cold front across GA will continue to shift southward towards the FL/GA border into this afternoon as high pressure over the Great Lakes extends south into the southeastern seaboard. A brief surge of northeasterly winds develops in the wake of the front keeping the cooler temperatures along the coast and Altamaha river basin. Highs today will range from the low 60s along the SE GA coast to the low 70s further inland.
457 AM CST Sat Feb 3 2024 (Today and tonight) The trough axis that contributed to yesterday's thunderstorms has moved well off to the east and clear skies are seen across much of the forecast area in a drier, westerly surface flow. As of the latest model runs, GFS indicates the low farther north than other guidance and thus places stronger winds over the southern South Plains region. Otherwise temperatures will be cooler than previous days, with highs ranging from the upper 50s to mid 60s.
639 AM EST Sat Feb 3 2024 - Mix of sun and cloud through the early this week as the region generally holds under the influence of high pressure and wind off the Lakes Huron. High pressure remains firmly in place across the central Great Lakes with its center eventually drifting directly over SE MI late today. Overall surface flow weakens over the course of the day becoming more variable direction as the high slides overhead which affords a window of greatly limiting if not outright cutting off moisture flux from Lake Huron.
Highs in the middle to upper 40s are possible in parts of central and northcentral Wisconsin, with cooler temperatures near the lake and bay.
The western trough/cutoff low moving into the Southern Plains this morning will push precipitation to the doorstep of SW Iowa this weekend, but that will be about it, with high pressure influence prevailing. Early week will see renewed/deepening western trough, which will in turn reestablish central CONUS ridging.
Temperatures will fall to the low 30s west of the Cascades and low 20s east tonight, and this is near normal for early February standards. The change in the forecast will come with a low pressure system that will move in from the south Sunday.
541 AM CST Sat Feb 3 2024 (Today through Sunday) High pressure situated over the Great Lakes will build today, forcing a cold front to the south. Tonight the high pressure will slide to the east and will then be able to provide the easterly flow that will push the front to the west. As it moves west, a low pressure system along with an occluded front will move east-southeast from Texas to the the Florida panhandle. Due to the cloud cover and rain, temperatures will be much cooler on Sunday as compared to today.
Mostly sunny and cooler temperatures are expected for this weekend, with mild high temperatures today in the low to mid 60s and overnight lows tonight in the 40s.
The main focus of the forecast will be tonight into Sunday for an anomalous rain event, focused over Phillips county where a period of freezing rain or rain freezing on surfaces is of increased concern. Model profiles over NW Phillips county by Sunday morning are marginal and uncertain for precipitation type to be freezing rain or a wintry mix.
Showers reach across all of northern and central NV by Sunday afternoon, with heaviest snow across the higher terrain of Northern Nye county.
While no precipitation is expected, some increase in mid-high clouds is possible across southwest portions of central Indiana on Sunday as a southern stream trough may help advect gulf moisture aloft. Anomalous upper ridging will promote above normal temperatures with many locations across central Indiana near or warmer than 50F by Sunday. Look for northern counties to be slightly cooler in the upper 40s.
647 AM EST Sat Feb 3 2024 High pressure will ridge in from the north through Sun with temperatures at or just below normal. High pressure returns for the mid to late week period along with milder temps. 5H trof axis to swing off the NC and SC Coasts this morning, taking the remaining moisture with it. CAA and dry air infiltrate the area as high pressure ridges in from the Great Lakes. An elongated and somewhat stalled upper ridge to stretch from the Carolinas to the Great Lakes by the end of this period. This the result of a meandering and expansive upper low over the NW Atlantic. By the end of this period, a mid-level low will begin to undercut the upper ridge to the south as a result of the blocking situation downstream.
Skies are clear across much of the southern Appalachian region as we are situated beneath high pressure. High pressure, dry conditions, and plenty of sunshine in the forecast for the short term. Discussion: In the upper levels, an omega block ridge extends from Florida to the Great Lakes/Canada today. Late tonight, the ridge will push eastward as a cut-off low moves into the Southeast. High pressure is centered over the Great Lakes. This forecast period will be dry since the low will not bring POPs into the region until tomorrow. With ridging overhead and ample sunshine, highs today will be 5 to 10 degrees above normal. Clouds will start to move into the region late tonight as the low moves into the Southeast.
This calm pattern we've enjoyed after this past week's cold fronts will last throughout today. Surface analysis notes that the east coast of CONUS is currently between two broad areas of low pressure, one drifting farther into the North Atlantic and another congealed over the midwest. The low reconsolidating in its wake will edge along the Gulf coast towards north Florida bringing sharply freshening westerly winds with it.
601 AM EST Sat Feb 3 2024 High pressure brings dry, milder weather for the weekend. An area of high pressure centered over the Great Lakes region will bring dry weather and abundant sunshine to the CWA during the day. After a cool start to the day, temperatures are expected to warm above normal with highs reaching mid 40s to 50s in the lowlands and 40s in the higher elevations. Quiet weather continues through tonight as high pressure and upper ridging remain in control overhead. A high pressure system will provide dry weather with moderating temperatures on Sunday.
Low pressure will begin to nose to our south into tomorrow, ushering in some light showers across southwest portions of Middle TN through the day. Temperatures on Sunday will be a bit cooler than today, with most of the area remaining in the 50s.
A blocked pattern leaves high pressure in control for much of the upcoming week with cool but sunny days, cold nights, and persistent north winds. An Omega Block pattern has developed aloft, with high-amplitude upper ridging over the Mississippi Valley and upper troughing extending south from Nova Scotia. Elsewhere, the lower clouds have finally begun to erode, with partly to mostly sunny skies in place. Nighttime lows will be in the teens for most of the region, with upper single digits in the highest terrain of the southern Adirondacks and Greens and low 20s in the Mid- Hudson Valley. The upper pattern will transition to a Rex Block as an upper trough digging south over the Southern Rockies undercuts the upper ridge over the Mississippi Valley.
That said, and considering the upper low should still be positioned across nw Tx, I wouldn't be overly surprised to see some isolated re-development across parts of the eastern CWA this afternoon with daytime heating.
517 AM CST Sat Feb 3 2024 (Today) Large upper ridge axis remains positioned from the western Gulf states northward into the northern Plains/upper MS Valley this early Sat morning. A weak backdoor cold front settling into the area today will at least translate into slightly cooler temps compared to Fri, with highs mainly in the lower/mid 60s for most spots.
(Tonight through Sunday night) West to northwest flow today will strengthen tonight as a reinforcing surge of high pressure pushes into the area. Strong winds will stream dry air into the area leading to Relative Humidity values in the teens over the Rio Grande Valley to the low 30s over the western Coastal Plains. Temperatures behind last night's cold front will not be drastically different, with high temperatures in the 70s across the area for Sunday.
-Warmer temperatures arrive for the upcoming work week.
1110 AM EST Sat Feb 3 2024 High pressure brings dry, milder weather for the weekend. Updated for patchy but persistent stratus across northern portions of the area, which was intersecting the foothills near the mountains to produce freezing fog. An area of high pressure centered over the Great Lakes region will bring dry weather and abundant sunshine to the CWA during the day. After a cool start to the day, temperatures are expected to warm above normal with highs reaching mid 40s to 50s in the lowlands and 40s in the higher elevations. Quiet weather continues through tonight as high pressure and upper ridging remain in control overhead. A high pressure system will provide dry weather with moderating temperatures on Sunday.
Expectation remains for additional forcing associated with closed low to lift northward into eastern OK by afternoon with fairly widespread showers to expand across the region and some becoming evident across northeast TX at present.
1151 AM CST Sat Feb 3 2024 (Today through Sunday) High pressure situated over the Great Lakes will build today, forcing a cold front to the south. Tonight the high pressure will slide to the east and will then be able to provide the easterly flow that will push the front to the west. As it moves west, a low pressure system along with an occluded front will move east-southeast from Texas to the the Florida panhandle. Due to the cloud cover and rain, temperatures will be much cooler on Sunday as compared to today.
A relative lull in winds is forecast overnight, before even stronger winds develop Sunday with another push of high pressure into the region.
Cloud cover will gradually increase through the period as a low pressure system approaches from the west. Tonight temperatures will range from the low to mid 30s across the northeast (area beneath the 'wedge') to mid 40s elsewhere as a result of increasing clouds.
The upper low, currently situated in the northern Texas panhandle, will begin to elongate and rotate south and east later this afternoon. This will work to accelerate the low/mid level flow in the entrance region of the trough and will reinvigorate the low level jet across the southern half of the region. Overnight lows will remain above normal in the low to mid 40s. As the upper low moves further into the southeast Texas, the low level jet will begin to weaken slightly over our area with gusts slowly starting to decrease by mid morning tomorrow (Wind Advisory expires at 15Z or 9AM CST tomorrow). The rest of the area should remain mostly sunny with highs in the low to mid 60s.
(This evening through Sunday) Expansive upper level low remains centered over the southern plains states early this afternoon, with this feature progged to drift slowly southeastward through the next 24 hours keeping West Texas beneath strong northwest flow aloft. Cloud cover has also increased this afternoon as an axis of enhanced midlevel moisture wraps around the mid/upper low, with virga or perhaps some brief sprinkles possible across the far southern TX Panhandle through this evening as continued large surface T/Td spreads prevent any meaningful low level moistening.
Cloudy conditions and freezing temperatures exist for the northern portion of the forecast area while sunny, clear skies exist for the southern two-thirds of the area with temperatures above freezing. Still on track for highs today ranging from mid 40s in the north where there is the most cloud coverage to the low 50s to the SW where sunshine has been persistent today. While no precipitation is expected, some increase in mid-high clouds is possible across southwest portions of central Indiana on Sunday as a southern stream trough may help advect gulf moisture aloft. Anomalous upper ridging will promote above normal temperatures with many locations across central Indiana near or warmer than 50F by Sunday. Look for northern counties to be slightly cooler in the upper 40s.
1237 PM EST Sat Feb 3 2024 Dry high pressure will push into the area from the north today.
250 PM EST Sat Feb 3 2024 High pressure will continue to build into the region through the rest of the weekend.
245 PM EST Sat Feb 3 2024 High pressure will continue to build into the region through the rest of the weekend.
This should keep temperatures cooler east of the I-65 corridor this afternoon, likely only reaching the upper 50s to lower 60s.
246 PM EST Sat Feb 3 2024 High pressure will provide 4-5 days of abundant sunshine and seasonably mild weather. Ridging at the sfc over the Upper GLAKS and ONT, and an Omega Block aloft with it's axis just to our W will keep it dry and largely cloudless for the near future. The Omega Block will get pinched into a Rex Block as a deep, cut-off low moves into the Lower MS Valley. With the ridge still to our west, we'll keep on with the milder-than-normal temps and plentiful sunshine. The higher elevations of the Endless Mountains should (70% chc) not get to 40F.
1128 AM CST Sat Feb 3 2024 (Today and tonight) The trough axis that contributed to yesterday's thunderstorms has moved well off to the east and clear skies are seen across much of the forecast area in a drier, westerly surface flow. As of the latest model runs, GFS indicates the low farther north than other guidance and thus places stronger winds over the southern South Plains region. Otherwise temperatures will be cooler than previous days, with highs ranging from the upper 50s to mid 60s.
354 PM EST Sat Feb 3 2024 High pressure builds in from southeastern Canada through the weekend and remains in control through midweek.