Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
(Today and tonight) Upper level ridging has moved into the area this morning, and will strengthen over the next few days. With the upper level ridge over west central, our weather will continue to be quiet. Temperatures will again warm 2 to 3 degrees across the area as not only will the ridge slightly strengthen, but 850mb temperatures will also warm 1 to 3 degrees across the area.
1257 AM CDT Mon Jul 29 2024 (This evening through Monday) Upper ridge continues to build over the Southern Plains into Monday as our first afternoon of excessive heating will start. Will see a Cirrus shield over the Southern High Plains increasing across our area, although the high cloudiness should be very thin and not expected to impede afternoon heating.
400 AM CDT Mon Jul 29 2024 Hot and humid conditions return today as an upper-level ridge continues to build in. Daily highs will be in the low to mid 90s today, increasing into the mid to upper 90s Tuesday, through the end of the workweek.
Convective rainfall will continue to be greatest in eastern MS on the periphery of the stronger ridge influence, but coverage should be scattered at most with activity diminishing after sunset this evening. A 594-595 dm high pressure centered centered off to the west and ridging pattern over the Southeast will bring the return of summer temps and provide ample moisture over the area.
Tonight through Tuesday: Water vapor satellite imagery shows a well defined frontal boundary associated with an upper level trough nearing Vancouver Island this afternoon. The exception is the higher terrain of NE Washington, Idaho Panhandle, and Blue Mountains where there is around a 40% chance of a wetting rain (greater than 0.
346 AM EDT Mon Jul 29 2024 Humidity returns today as high pressure pushes offshore. This will bring the chance for thunderstorms along and west of the Blue Ridge today.
UPDATE Thunderstorms have attempted to initiate along the inverted trough axis, however surface convergence is very weak and thus forcing has been weak. Cold front with a comfortable drop in dew points continues to slide southeast across the area with readings in the low 70s being replaced with upper 50s and low 60s. For Tuesday potential exists with another round of convection, again possibly severe, as another weak wave or impulse moves over the ridge and traverses southeast across the northern plains. A less active period is expected to develop across the region towards the end of the week into the weekend with a broadening of the western ridge into the great plains.
Pattern Synopsis/Pattern Forecast: Moisture advection continues to ramp up across the northern Great Lakes early this morning, forced to do so by departing mid level ridging and approaching western Great Lakes troughing. While large scale forcing is lacking (despite approaching troughing), expect shower initiation to focus on lake breeze convergence zones and forced ascent into the highlands. Passage of troughing supports a continued showers/storm threat into tonight, although will less coverage as diurnal support is lost. Temperatures today will be partially held in check by those clouds and showers, with high expected to top out mostly in the lower and middle 80s. Disturbance rich pattern thanks to west to east flow on the northern side of the subtropical ridge, troughiness across the northern Rockies, and an unstable Plains/Midwest.
(Today through Tuesday) A mid and upper level shear axis across the Rio Grande Plains and western Hill Country is forecast to gradually weaken today and Tuesday as ridging begins to build to the northeast. Warmer high temperatures today and Tuesday, forecast to range from the low to mid 90s across the Hill Country, I-35 corridor, and Coastal Plains to upper 90s to around 100 along the Rio Grande.
/Issued 1118 PM CDT Sun Jul 28 2024/ /Through Monday Night/ A building ridge aloft and a deepening surface lee through across the Central and Southern High Plains will yield hot, humid and breezy weather to start the work week. This Advisory will likely be extended and expanded in the coming days with the upper ridge intensifying. Temperatures will continue to increase through the mid to late week period as the mid level ridge responsible for the heat intensifies overhead.
(Today and tonight) Mid to upper level ridging overhead today and tonight will result in hot temperatures and a precipitation-free forecast. NBM has been a bit on the high side while METMOS has definitely been on the low side.
340 AM EDT Mon Jul 29 2024 High pressure will shift offshore today bringing hotter and more humid conditions through the week with dangerous heat possible late in the week. High pressure migrates offshore late in the day and allows low level flow to become predominately southerly. This will bring a return of warmer and humid air this evening and overnight. Lows back in the low 70s.
Longwave troughing continues across the Eastern CONUS and Appalachians with W/NW flow aloft at 500 mb. As far as temperatures, overnight lows remain warm with cooler afternoon temperatures expected due to the continued cloud cover and convection.
833 PM PDT Sun Jul 28 2024 A trough of low pressure over most of the West Coast will bring fair and cooler weather, along with breezy west winds in the mountains and deserts through Tuesday.
1121 PM CDT Sun Jul 28 2024 The new pattern is here! Latest 500 mb RAP analysis places high pressure overtop the northeast GoM; its northwest fringe located just over the LCH CWA. This high pressure dome will remain in control, slowly creeping to the west over the next several days. Expecting less convective coverage on Monday as the high pressure builds in our region.
(Monday and Tuesday) While the main energy associated with the upper trough axis will be east of the local forecast area on Monday, another lobe of vorticity maxima will drop southeast through TN and into AL. The rainfall should begin to shift east on Tuesday as upper level ridging begins to build in from the west. Expect highs in the mid 90s west of I-65 and slightly cooler east due to morning rain and cloud cover. This would result in a drier and warmer day.
Upper level troughing remains the dominant synoptic feature across the region, which is responsible for the lower temperatures. While temperatures will be below normal for this time of year, they will be slightly warmer, 2-5 degrees, than yesterday's highs as the troughing begins to break down and a more westerly flow aloft takes over tomorrow.
Warm and muggy overnight, with lows in the low to mid 70s. A weak area of high pressure across the local Atlantic waters will get pushed southward slightly by a weak quasi-stationary boundary through Monday, with the boundary dissipating Tuesday. By Tuesday, the high will shift northward once more, with winds becoming more southerly at 10 to 15 knots, continuing to become more east- southeast in association with the development of the east coast sea breeze.
The highest confidence in heat indices reaching 105 or above appear to be across southeast Missouri where a heat advisory has been issued. Northwest flow develops overhead the region Tuesday in response to ridging developing across the plains.
As the trough moves eastward, it will battle against the subsidence and dry air over the region. Additionally, warm air advection will continue ahead of the trough which will help to cap the atmosphere.
As of now, northwest montana and Clearwater County in Idaho have the higher probabilities (20-30%) of receiving measurable rainfall by sunrise Tuesday morning. Locations that stand to benefit the most at this time, will be the higher terrain of the Kootenai Region and the Mission Range.
a 500 hPa ridge will start to expand over the state from the south. The 500 hPa ridge will continue to prevail across the greater region Tuesday with 500 hPa heights in the 592 to 594 dm range across the state.
- The warm and dry weather will continue through much of the week as high pressure remains in control.
The forecast looks dry the next 24 hours and warmer Monday as the upper level ridge builds across the Southern Plains and becomes more intense this week.
Hot and humid conditions return today as an upper-level ridge continues to build in. Daily highs will be in the low to mid 90s today, increasing into the mid to upper 90s Tuesday, through the end of the workweek.
Embedded channel vorticity will sweep northeast with a warm front also pulling north across the Midlands of South Carolina. The quasi lee side trough will then help to initiate convection across the Midlands of SC. As convection upstream comes to an end Monday evening, temperatures will fall off into the lower 70s across most of the area. Tuesday: The closed upper level low over New England will eject northeast as it gets absorbed into the upper level flow. This will finally allow the warm front to push through the entire region. Expect high temperatures in the low 90s. Low temperatures Tuesday night will mostly be in the lower to mid 70s. A mid-level ridge will develop across southern Texas and slowly build through this week with a mid-level trough over the east coast of the United States.
Dry and warmer conditions build in during the late week, warming temperatures to above normal temperatures.
(Today through Tuesday afternoon) High pressure migrates east from eastern New Mexico to North Texas over the next couple of days. An upper trough moving across far West Texas will combine with orographic lift in the Davis and Guadalupe mountains to provide low rain chances there.
Best chances for scattered showers and storms will be east of I-65 on the southern extend of the trough axis.
Temperatures and Heat Index: Due to the influence of the aforementioned high pressure and drier conditions, temperatures will be a few degrees warmer starting this afternoon.
Little change synoptically over the past 24 hours, as weak ridging at the surface and aloft remain in place over the peninsula this morning, with a weak surface frontal boundary analyzed over the panhandle/northern peninsula south of troughing aloft over the E Seaboard/W Atlantic extending south from a closed low just offshore the NE U.
Moisture still in place from the rain and overall airmass, will cause dewpoints to remain on the higher side. The drying pattern continues on Tuesday along with a touch warmer temperatures.
(Monday through Tuesday) Upper ridging continues to build across the ArkLaTex this morning, and will do so through the afternoon. Under the influence of the ridge, cloud coverage will be harder to come by, so temperatures this afternoon will be closer to normal for many. CDT this evening, but morning guidance does support the possibility of expanding the Heat Advisory into Tuesday as another afternoon of dry conditions under the upper ridge, and elevated dew point temperatures would warrant heat products. RK (Tuesday Night through Monday) The upper ridge and accompanied heat will prevail through mid- week. Highs will continue to climb into the mid to upper 90's as far as into the weekend even as the base of the ridge slides west and troughing north and east of the FA just barely influences the ArkLaTex.
552 AM CDT Mon Jul 29 2024 (Today and tonight) Upper level ridging has moved into the area this morning, and will strengthen over the next few days. With the upper level ridge over west central, our weather will continue to be quiet. Temperatures will again warm 2 to 3 degrees across the area as not only will the ridge slightly strengthen, but 850mb temperatures will also warm 1 to 3 degrees across the area.
More normal chances of rain for any particular area with the highest of these coming in around 30-40% for coastal locations and even some 50%s for coastal Miss today.
736 AM EDT Mon Jul 29 2024 Low pressure will weaken while tracking west of the region today. High pressure will then remain southeast of the region Tuesday and Tuesday night.
Later in the week a shift in high pressure northward will open the door to increasing moisture and thunderstorm chances. High pressure aloft was centered over the New Mexico/Texas border during the morning and will continue to shift eastward through Tuesday.
Subtle upper level ridging is will be in place across the central plains today. This is a northward extension of more robust upper ridging across the southern plains. Not quite there for a heat advisory, but it will still be hot with highs reaching the lower to mid 90s.
Southern Oregon and northern California remain under the influence of a broad trough affecting most of the Pacific Northwest and Canada, and the aforementioned cloud cover is part of a frontal boundary that will move inland today. From Tuesday onward, we enter back into a ridge pattern with warmer drier and breezy conditions through much of the week. The coast will be a little warmer as well with temperatures reaching into the 70s. The lower ceilings along the coast this morning should lift to at least MVFR, but the front could bring some light rain/drizzle again NW of the Umpqua Divide and along the coast into this evening.
(Now through Tuesday) An upper trough will dig southward between the Appalachian Mountains and the East Coast while an upper high pressure area remains over the Southern Plains, lower Mississippi River, and Western Gulf of Mexico regions. At the surface, weak high pressure will remain across the Gulf of Mexico. High temperatures both days will be slightly above normal, and top out in the low to mid 90s.
531 AM EDT Mon Jul 29 2024 Low pressure will weaken while tracking west of the region today. High pressure will then remain southeast of the region Tuesday and Tuesday night.
1029 AM EDT Mon Jul 29 2024 Humidity returns today as high pressure pushes offshore. This will bring the chance for thunderstorms along and west of the Blue Ridge today.
614 AM CDT Mon Jul 29 2024 (Today) The heat will build today as an upper ridge builds over the area.
(Today through Tuesday Night) Ridging across the Southern Plains/Gulf amplifies early this week, with 500mb heights progged to reach up to 593-595 dam. This is further supported by rising 850mb temperatures of 17-20C, southwesterly flow in the lower levels and sparse cloud cover during the afternoon.
79 Previous Discussion: /Through Monday Night/ A building ridge aloft and a deepening surface lee through across the Central and Southern High Plains will yield hot, humid and breezy weather to start the work week. This Advisory will likely be extended and expanded in the coming days with the upper ridge intensifying. Temperatures will continue to increase through the mid to late week period as the mid level ridge responsible for the heat intensifies overhead.
642 AM CDT Mon Jul 29 2024 (Today through Tuesday Night) Ridging across the Southern Plains/Gulf amplifies early this week, with 500mb heights progged to reach up to 593-595 dam. This is further supported by rising 850mb temperatures of 17-20C, southwesterly flow in the lower levels and sparse cloud cover during the afternoon.
Toward the end of the week, temperatures return to warmer than normal values. A closed upper level area of higher heights is located over southern United States, with the associated upper level ridge pressing northward. Additionally, an upper level trof approaches Montana from the west. This trof removes mass from the ridge and an upper level westerly flow develops across The Northern Rocky Mountain Front. The passage of the afore mentioned upper level trof favors an up to 35% chance of scattered thunderstorms across most of our forecast area.
1018 AM EDT Mon Jul 29 2024 Low pressure will weaken while tracking west of the region today. High pressure will then remain southeast of the region Tuesday and Tuesday night.
Higher cloud coverage across the area will lead to slightly diminished daytime heating, with afternoon highs along the coast reaching the upper 80s and temperatures across the interior reaching the low 90s.
623 AM CDT Mon Jul 29 2024 Hot and humid conditions return today as an upper-level ridge continues to build in. Daily highs will be in the low to mid 90s today, increasing into the mid to upper 90s Tuesday, through the end of the workweek.
616 AM CDT Mon Jul 29 2024 (Today through Tuesday afternoon) High pressure migrates east from eastern New Mexico to North Texas over the next couple of days. An upper trough moving across far West Texas will combine with orographic lift in the Davis and Guadalupe mountains to provide low rain chances there.
556 AM CDT Mon Jul 29 2024 (Monday through Tuesday) Upper ridging continues to build across the ArkLaTex this morning, and will do so through the afternoon. Under the influence of the ridge, cloud coverage will be harder to come by, so temperatures this afternoon will be closer to normal for many. CDT this evening, but morning guidance does support the possibility of expanding the Heat Advisory into Tuesday as another afternoon of dry conditions under the upper ridge, and elevated dew point temperatures would warrant heat products. RK (Tuesday Night through Monday) The upper ridge and accompanied heat will prevail through mid- week. Highs will continue to climb into the mid to upper 90's as far as into the weekend even as the base of the ridge slides west and troughing north and east of the FA just barely influences the ArkLaTex.
330 AM PDT Mon Jul 29 2024 Cooler weather with lower inland humidity will continue into Tuesday.
620 AM CDT Mon Jul 29 2024 (Today through Tuesday) A mid and upper level shear axis across the Rio Grande Plains and western Hill Country is forecast to gradually weaken today and Tuesday as ridging begins to build to the northeast. Warmer high temperatures today and Tuesday, forecast to range from the low to mid 90s across the Hill Country, I-35 corridor, and Coastal Plains to upper 90s to around 100 along the Rio Grande.
618 AM CDT Mon Jul 29 2024 (Today and tonight) Mid to upper level ridging overhead today and tonight will result in hot temperatures and a precipitation-free forecast. NBM has been a bit on the high side while METMOS has definitely been on the low side.
Typical afternoon mixing will drag forecast Tds down slightly into the 74-76 degree range, but recent NBM MaxT's coming in right at or slightly warmer than yesterday may likely offset any brief "drier" air by downward mixing. More normal chances of rain for any particular area with the highest of these coming in around 30-40% for coastal locations and even some 50%s for coastal Miss today.
917 AM PDT Mon Jul 29 2024 Cooler weather with lower inland humidity will continue into Tuesday.
Later in the week a shift in high pressure northward will open the door to increasing moisture and thunderstorm chances. At best you might see some cumulus build-up, especially along the higher terrain. High pressure aloft was centered over the New Mexico/Texas border during the morning and will continue to shift eastward through Tuesday.
Satellite imagery this afternoon shows a trough moving into the Pacific Northwest, accompanied by increasing atmospheric moisture. The trough is forecast to fully arrive by Tuesday morning, bringing widespread rain showers and scattered thunderstorms. This system will also bring cooler temperatures, with highs on Tuesday forecasted to be 10-20 degrees below average.
(Rest of today through Tuesday) High pressure over the northern Atlantic, high pressure over the southern plains/northwestern Gulf of Mexico, and a trough over the eastern third of the United States will be the major synoptic features in play for the short term forecast period. Temperatures will max out in the lower 90s with heat index values forecast to reach the triple digits each afternoon.
DS/12 (Now through Tuesday) An upper level trough will dig southward along the East Coast tonight and Tuesday as upper level high pressure, centered over the ARK-LA-TEX region builds to our west and ridges east into our area. The ridging will primarily influence the weather over the western half of our forecast area during the near term, while the troughing will have a greater influence on the weather over the eastern half of our forecast area. At the surface, a weak high pressure ridge will continue to extend west from the Atlantic across the Gulf coast region and the eastern Gulf of Mexico.
Finessed POPs across the area to reflect current trends, which essentially resulted in significant lowering across the lowlands.
This feature and a trailing upper trough will increase the chance for showers later this evening and tonight as it tracks along the OR/WA border and into n-central Idaho.
Upper ridging will begin to become established over the western US and extend across the Northern High Plains.
(Tonight through Tuesday night) Mid-level ridging has built across the state and the PWATs have returned back towards typical seasonal levels. The afternoon highs today and again Tuesday will range from the low 90s in the Hill Country to near or slightly above 100 degrees for the areas near the Rio Grande. The dew points are a bit elevated from the result of the higher than average soil moistures with the recent rains.
We are enjoying some more seasonal temperatures in recent days, thanks to a dry trough sweeping across the Pacific Northwest. Expect the cooler temperatures to remain through Tuesday.
(This evening through Tuesday Night) For much of the remainder of the work week, upper level ridging overhead will control the narrative uninterrupted, and that narrative may be succinctly stated as: hot and quiet.
1229 PM CDT Mon Jul 29 2024 (Today through Tuesday) A mid and upper level shear axis across the Rio Grande Plains and western Hill Country is forecast to gradually weaken today and Tuesday as ridging begins to build to the northeast. Warmer high temperatures today and Tuesday, forecast to range from the low to mid 90s across the Hill Country, I-35 corridor, and Coastal Plains to upper 90s to around 100 along the Rio Grande.
(This evening through Tuesday) The center of an upper level ridge has moved directly overhead per water vapor imagery. Mid level monsoon moisture was also observed rotating around the west side of the ridge. A surface cyclone has strengthened in lee of the Rockies in eastern Colorado with a pressure trough extending southward through eastern New Mexico. A similar situation is expected for Tuesday as the upper level ridge continues to edge eastward into central Texas.
A trough will continue to dig down into the area through the period with high pressure pushing offshore. A warming northwest flow will be in place through the period with the Piedmont Trough the prominent feature at the surface.
(This evening through Tuesday) The upper level ridge will remain the dominant weather feature and remain over the area through Tuesday. Temperatures will be warm again tonight, with lows in the low to mid 70s.
Temperatures will be slow to cool overnight, with low temperatures ranging from the mid 70s to the low 80s. (Tonight through Monday) An upper level ridge will remain in place the next several days, slightly intensifying and expanding. For Tuesday, this will mean most locations will be a couple of degrees warmer than today with no appreciable decrease in moisture.
With a strengthening ridge over the Rockies, highs today rise into the triple digits along the Pecos River, near the Rio Grande, and over the northeast Permian Basin, with 90s elsewhere and 80s in the highest elevations. With continued ridging, Tuesday will be warmer than today, with widespread highs in the triple digits for most of the area aside from the southeast Permian Basin and Marfa Plateau into Lower Trans Pecos, with 105+ readings over the Upper Trans Pecos and along the Rio Grande. Lows Tuesday night will once again fall into the 70s and above, with 60s only over the highest elevations of the Marfa Plateau and Lower Trans Pecos.
/NEW/ /Through Tuesday/ A dominant upper level ridge will keep hot and quiet weather in place. Tuesday will be slightly warmer for most locations with afternoon highs ranging from the mid 90s to 101 degrees. Temperatures will continue to increase through the mid to late week period as the mid level ridge responsible for the heat intensifies overhead.