Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
While some lingering showers and cloud cover are providing shade across the Lower Keys, temperatures are already up in the mid 80s. With ridging continuing to dominate the Eastern Seaboard, we continue to expect the same easterly flow bringing pockets of tropical moisture to the area in the short term so chance PoPs continue to be held in the short term. Deep layer ridging over the eastern U. will remain in place today, but a mid to upper level low near Bermuda will erode the periphery of the high as it progresses southwestward.
Otherwise, expect dry and warmer conditions with light winds today.
346 PM EDT Mon Jun 23 2025 Strong ridging aloft will build over the eastern United States through midweek, with hot afternoon temperatures combined with high humidity creating dangerous heat.
We will remain on the western edge of a high pressure ridge located across the southeastern U. Highs will be in the lower to middle 90s.
Otherwise, rain-free conditions return tonight with the loss of daytime heating, with lows falling into the low to mid 70s. Along the Lower Texas beaches, a moderate risk of rip currents continues through tomorrow.
Weak ridging overhead has brought mostly clear skies and warmer temperatures to the area today. A weak trough, illustrated by extensive clouds offshore, will dig into the area this evening and tonight, with little effect other than providing support for a decent marine layer push overnight and into the morning. Temperatures on Tuesday will warm by about 5 degrees over those of today, then we will begin to cool off a bit through the rest of the work week as weak, but broad troughing sets up over the region.
Temperatures, as expected, are a bit cooler with highs forecast in the low-to-mid 80s north of the front, while areas to the south could see highs approach 90 degrees this afternoon. This becomes the story for the rest of the work-week as we remain under a southwesterly flow regime across the Northern Plains with a stubborn ridge centered across the Appalachians. Cloud cover and showers should help to keep us cooler on Tuesday despite the northward movement of the frontal boundary, with highs mainly in the upper 80s across southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa, and upper-70s to low 80s for northeast Nebraska north of the frontal boundary.
641 PM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025 - Upper high moved off to the north and east will keep hot and humid conditions in the forecast.
* Slow moving cold front is expected to work south tonight approaching the I-70 corridor.
- Near record warm overnight low temperatures in the low to mid 70s will provide little to no relief from the heat, especially for vulnerable populations.
By midweek, weak systems will begin to move through the area bringing light rain and cooler temperatures to most.
The synoptic pattern features an upper low near Bakersfield that is helping to generate some convection over the Southern Sierra with even some cumulus build ups over the higher terrain of San Benito county. For tonight expect the low clouds along the coast to slowly spread into the coastal valleys of the Monterey Bay region with not too much of an inland push for the Bay Area.
626 PM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025 - Clearing tonight and cooler.
852 PM EDT Mon Jun 23 2025 Strong ridging aloft will build over the eastern United States through midweek, with hot afternoon temperatures combined with high humidity creating dangerous heat.
The trough to our west continues to push further southwest and is now centered in central California. The broad ridge to our east over the Mid-Atlantic persists, continuing the trend of dry southwesterly flow over southern Arizona. As this west coast trough continues on its journey toward the southwest US, the low to mid level flow will shift to be more southerly bringing in a better supply of deep moisture into eastern Arizona.
931 PM EDT Mon Jun 23 2025 A ridge of high pressure remains overhead through mid-week as a cold front begins to sink south across the eastern Great Lakes Tuesday night.
758 PM EDT Mon Jun 23 2025 A ridge of high pressure remains overhead through mid-week as a cold front begins to sink south across the eastern Great Lakes Tuesday night.
615 PM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025 (Tonight) High pressure centered just NE of the area has allowed for temperatures across the CWA to surge into the upper 80s to low 90s. SE flow around the high pressure has maintained dew points in the low 70s. Lows will only drop to the mid 70s overnight as we remain under high pressure influence.
Otherwise, expect mainly clear skies and warm conditions overnight with lows in the low to mid 70s. Mid level ridge will both weaken and shift south ever so slightly during the period.
(This evening through Tuesday night) Strong moisture transport is evident on satellite with both the low and mid levels out of the south. Overall, high pressure over the Ohio and Tennessee Valley continues to hold and that is what's keeping the monsoonal southerly flow over the Panhandle as well as eastern NM. Given the higher moisture content, the storms are not favored to be big hail producers, however, there is a weak frontal boundary that is running across the northwest Panhandles and that may bring enough cooler air aloft to get some severe hail out of this.
High pressure will remain dominant over the area for the next couple of days, allowing for mainly easterly moderate to fresh breezes.
/Issued 109 PM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025/ /Through Tuesday/ Seasonably warm and humid late June conditions will dominate North Texas today through Tuesday, as the region remains on the western periphery of a deep layer high pressure ridge centered over the Eastern U. Daytime highs today and Tuesday should push into the lower and middle 90s areawide.
- Daily isolated to scattered showers and storms likely much of this week, with trends suggesting Tuesday and Wednesday may have the higher coverage.
Surface observations indicate temperatures in the lower to mid 80s at this hour, with dew points in the seasonally muggy lower to mid 70s. Meanwhile, further aloft, a mid- and upper-level low pressure system is situated further to the southwest. The wave axis associated with the lower-level disturbance near the Antilles will push towards the Straits of Florida roughly during the same time period.
The proximity of the surface cold frontal boundary and potential for evening and overnight rains will play a part in moderating the temperatures a for the early part of the week. This convection was occurring ahead of an upper level trough that was crossing western Kansas based on water vapor and upper air analysis. Based on the latest short models this overnight convection will begin to taper off after 09z as the upper level trough moves east/northeast.
130 AM PDT Tue Jun 24 2025 * Cooler than average temperatures with overall dry conditions continue today. Upper level trough continues its slow eastward trajectory through the Great Basin. The low is providing the upper lift, while instability combined with orographics brings the surface lift for the development of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening near the Sierra crest. The aforementioned trough leaves the area Wednesday, but zonal flow returns with the approach of another weak upper trough over the PacNW, and barely scraping northern CA/NV.
A broad upper level trough continues to move across Canada with North Dakota on the equatorward side of the upper level jet stream. A broad trough in the Desert Southwest will support southwesterly flow across the State through much of the week which will result in periodic showers and thunderstorms across the region.
However, much of the severe risk and threats remains dependent on the location of the warm front. The greatest severe potential remains dependent on the location of the warm front, with wind and hail the primary concerns. A warm front will track through southern Nebraska this afternoon, providing the lift for these storms. Along with the lifting warm front, afternoon dewpoints climb into the 60s across the region. As the low level flow increases this evening, sufficient low level shear may support a brief tornado risk as well, especially for storms that ride along the warm frontal boundary.
Lots of sunshine has warmed temperatures into the low 90s. Tomorrow, expect more of the same as strong sunshine lifts temperatures back into the low to mid 90s.
1152 PM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025 - Upper high moved off to the north and east will keep hot and humid conditions in the forecast. This increase in coverage is expected today with high pressure having moved off to the north. Further increases in rain chances / coverage expected Tuesday and Wednesday as an inverted trof moves near the region.
1233 AM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025 (Tonight through Wednesday night) The short term forecast period will feature near normal temperatures with minor heat risk and day-to-day shower and thunderstorm chances as the region sits on the southwestern periphery of an anomalously strong and broad, yet weakening 597 hpa sub-tropical ridge or "heat dome" over the eastern U. Otherwise, expect for continued very warm to hot and humid conditions on Tuesday and Wednesday with daytime high temperatures expected to top out in the low to mid 90s, except along South Padre Island and the Lower Texas Coast, where highs are expected to be in the 80s.
A slow-moving cold front approaching from the northwest amidst a moist/unstable/uncapped airmass will be the focus for scattered to numerous showers/thunderstorms this afternoon and evening, with activity likely lingering well into the night. Given the uncapped airmass, a few thunderstorms could form as far east-southeast as the Flint Hills over southeast Kansas, although thinking the greatest coverage/chances will be northwest of the KS Turnpike closer to the approaching cold frontal zone. Thereafter, mostly non-severe showers/storms should linger a good portion of the night and even into Tuesday morning mainly northwest of the KS Turnpike, supported by a strengthening low-level jet impinging on the cold frontal zone. The culprits will be subtle ripples in the mid-level flow moving in from the west-southwest along with weak cold fronts encroaching from the north, amidst a continued moist/unstable/uncapped airmass.
This will bring moderate Heat Risk (level 2 of 4) over the Columbia Basin for Tuesday, given the low RHs and warming temps. As the upper level trough remains over the forecast area, light showers could develop through Tuesday over the upper crest of the WA Cascades before expanding across the remaining crest of the Cascades Wednesday.
Oppressive dome of high pressure over the eastern US will continue to bake the area through the short term.
A trough is in place over the Great Basin, with a strong ridge of high pressure situated over the east. Moisture advection continues to increase over New Mexico, which will gradually increase across eastern Arizona as the trough begins to lift. As a result, daily chances for high-based showers can be expected over the higher terrain of eastern Arizona. By the weekend, guidance tries to build an area of high pressure over the southwest.
A deeper-layered region of high pressure extending over the region from the Mid-Atlantic states will retreat ahead of an approaching Tropical Upper Tropospheric Trough (TUTT) that emerges from the Bahamas into the area early Wednesday. A cooler environment aloft will help to steepen mid-level lapse rates which in turn could promote more stout convective activity including strong thunderstorms. With the low over the region, the sea breeze pattern will not have the reliable easterly flow to help the Atlantic sea breeze advance inland or inhibit the Gulf breeze from advancing east of Interstate 75.
(Today and tonight) The center of an upper level ridge is located over the Mid- Atlantic with a trough located across the western U.
119 AM MDT Tue Jun 24 2025 KEY MESSAGES: A weak ridge in place today will bring daytime temperatures back to 5-8F above normal.
- The intense heat will come to an end from west to east this afternoon and this evening as a cold front, along with showers and thunderstorms spreads eastward across the area.
What a difference 24-hours can make! Temperatures have dropped to much more comfortable values following the passage of a cold front. West of the front, temperatures are in the 70s, which is roughly 20 degrees cooler than this time yesterday across western MN. The aforementioned cold front is forecast to stall out across central IA tomorrow, before gradually lifting northward towards the IA/MN border heading into the middle of the week. Broad southwesterly zonal flow will setup aloft across the northern CONUS, blocked by a ~590s dm ridge over the Ohio Valley.
/NEW/ /Through Wednesday/ A stout upper ridge will remain anchored across the Mid-Atlantic and Ohio Valley regions through the midweek period, placing North and Central Texas on its western periphery. Otherwise, near normal temperatures will persist with highs in the low/mid 90s and overnight lows in the 70s.
With troughing in place over the Great Basin and high pressure to the east, centered over Tennessee and Kentucky, a monsoonal-like tap of moisture will be making its way northward through New Mexico and into Colorado. The southern Divide area will see the best of the moisture plume, and therefore the highest chances of showers or thunderstorms forming over the terrain in the afternoon.
- A surge of moisture around and upper level ridge associated with a weak disturbance will bring about high rain chances today, especially during the afternoon hours, with some locally torrential downpours possible.
(Today through Wednesday) As an inverted upper trough swings through the region today, the diurnally driven showers and storms will likely be a bit more enhanced in terms of coverage. Good from a temperature perspective or at least some help as much of the east is baking under the 598dam ridge centered over the Mid Atlantic region. The trough under the high will swiftly move east of our region later tonight and Wednesday. though not zero with the higher POPs across the southwestern parishes and perhaps over the MS Gulf Coast ahead of the next potential impulse that arrives mainly outside the short term window. As POPs decrease on Wednesday, temperatures should soar, especially as the aforementioned H5 ridge centers a bit closer to our region over the Tennessee or lower Ohio River Valleys.
(Today) Persistent upper pattern today with expansive upper ridge to the east, with local forecast area remaining under southerly flow on western side. Isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected again this afternoon favoring the higher terrain areas of western AR and southeast OK, with most guidance suggesting a minor uptick in coverage.
(Today through Wednesday) Key messages: - Seasonable temperatures and heat index values - Low chances of rain each day Coastal Plains to I-35 corridor A Tropical Upper Tropospheric Trough (TUTT) currently seen over the northwestern Gulf drifts over southern Texas/northern Mexico today and Wednesday. With little or no changes to the lower level thermal ridge, temperatures and heat index values remain close to late June averages.
(Today) High pressure will continue to be dominant over the region today, with the 500mb and 850mb highs shifting slightly southwest through the day.
The upper ridge centered over the eastern US will reach its apex today, bringing the hottest conditions of the week. The strength of the ridge should put a lid on convection today with any rogue shower being limited to the northeast Georgia mountains. On Wednesday, the ridge will begin its initial weakening as an upper low over the west Atlantic slips westward around the ridge's southern periphery. This will work to both supply additional moisture beneath the ridge as well as enhance lapse rates.
- Periods of Rain and Thunderstorms this Week Our overall environment through the weekend will have instability and moisture available each day under the upper level ridge.
1054 PM MDT Mon Jun 23 2025 - Slight risk (2 out of 5) of severe thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon/evening - Unsettled Wednesday, with trends pointing toward warmer weather for the end of the week With low pressure over CA, the northern plains is beneath southwest flow. Chances for storms will increase this weekend, with models in fairly good agreement about a trough moving through the northern plains.
122 AM MDT Tue Jun 24 2025 KEY MESSAGES: - Warmer and drier today.
Much warmer temperatures possible over the weekend. Warm and dry conditions will continue through Wednesday as a broad ridge builds in from the eastern Pacific. Temperatures in the mid to upper 80's with isolated valleys reaching the low 90's expected (NBM 70 to 80%) including Lakeport, Ukiah, Covelo, Redway, Weaverville, Hayfork and Willow Creek. Temperatures along the coast especially north of Cape Mendocino will be much cooler beneath a persistent marine layer.
High pressure will be over Fargo at 12z this morning. Winds will be turn south 5-15 kts thru the day and temps will be a bit warmer with highs into the 70s. The far south and southwest extension of this trough may generate isold shower/t-storms into areas along the ND/MB border late this aftn/eve. In addition though will watch deeper moisture from western Mexico north into Kasnas and then into Iowa and southern MN and Wisconsin around the 500 mb ridge over Virginia.
149 AM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025 * Slow moving cold front is expected to work south tonight approaching the I-70 corridor. Cold front associated with an area of low pressure centered over the Hudson Bay extends from northeast Iowa into far southeastern Nebraska as of 20Z. As convection increases in the vicinity of the front, expect the cold front to work south and become the focus for additional storms tonight. Wind shear increases slightly this evening as the low level jet increases ahead of the front ticking up towards 30 knots this evening across northern Missouri, potentially leading to isolated strong to severe storm through the evening hours. Lingering boundary is expected to lift back north as a warm front Tuesday night into Wednesday leading to warm and muggy conditions spreading regionwide.
With drier air mixing down lower dew pts from the low 70s into the upper 60s inland this afternoon with daytime heating, resultant heat index values will still near 105 degrees for locations west of the Highway 301, which is still below local heat advisory criteria (which is heat index > 108-112 degF). This weak trough, upper level lift and influx of some moisture could spark some diurnally enhanced late day convection.
A weak trough is lifting out of the area today. Temperatures will warm about 5 to 10 degrees above normal with highs in the low 90s for valleys west of the Cascades and in the lower to mid 80s east of the Cascades.
621 AM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025 (Tonight through Wednesday night) The short term forecast period will feature near normal temperatures with minor heat risk and day-to-day shower and thunderstorm chances as the region sits on the southwestern periphery of an anomalously strong and broad, yet weakening 597 hpa sub-tropical ridge or "heat dome" over the eastern U. Otherwise, expect for continued very warm to hot and humid conditions on Tuesday and Wednesday with daytime high temperatures expected to top out in the low to mid 90s, except along South Padre Island and the Lower Texas Coast, where highs are expected to be in the 80s.
The question for the rest of the morning is how much further inland will the stratus make it? Confidence is on the lower end for a full intrusion into Napa County and the interior East Bay, but there is some signal for that occuring given we have started to see pockets of stratus form once the high clouds have moved out of the region.
325 AM MDT Tue Jun 24 2025 KEY MESSAGES: - Warmer temperatures will return through the middle part of the week, but chances for showers and thunderstorms will continue at times. WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Upper trough over the western states with southwest flow increasing through midweek. With high pressure dropping into the upper midwest, low level southeast return flow will spread moisture into the region.
Stout mid to upper level ridging over the eastern U. Shower and thunderstorms are possible again Wednesday afternoon into the evening with vort maxima riding along the northwestern edge of the ridge to the southeast.
611 AM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025 - A surge of moisture around and upper level ridge associated with a weak disturbance will bring about high rain chances today, especially during the afternoon hours, with some locally torrential downpours possible.
It will take some time to saturate the lower-levels of the atmosphere, so wetting rains are not likely. We expect storms to develop over the high terrain before moving off into adjacent valleys.
Early morning surface analysis had a 1025mb high centered over the southern Appalachians as well that was ridging back to the southwest across our CWA. This stout ridging surface and aloft will change very little through tonight. This will lead to warmer than normal temperatures in the mid 90s this afternoon. Steering flow around the high will allow this complex to propagate eastward into our area, though the extent is a bit uncertain as it moves into increasingly unfavorable environment. Late week, a weak upper low begins to shift into the area from Florida as the upper ridge begins to break down and shift east, which leads to a steady increase in rain chances across the area, especially east.
High pressure remains in control keeping easterly winds in place. Slightly drier air will be in place today, which will bring showers and storms coverage down and keeping the highest chances south of the I-4 corridor. Late on Wednesday, high pressure weakens allowing upper level disturbance to approach the state. Lingering energy and moisture going into the weekend though winds become west to southwest as high pressure builds back again. High pressure remains in control keeping benign marine weather conditions. High pressure remains in control of weather conditions across fire districts through the next few days.
(Today through next Tuesday) A trough of low pressure currently situated across the southwestern U. The trough will shift off to the east, with a general west to east flow setting up. The focus of Wednesday will be warming temperatures as afternoon highs will reach into the lower 90s for zones 437/438/469/470 and mid to upper 90s for zones 424/425/426/427.
A building ridge of high pressure then yields continued warming into the weekend.
(Today and tonight) The synoptic pattern has not changed much, with upper level high pressure situated over the eastern U. and an upper trough over the western states. Temperatures will be near normal for this time of year, with afternoon highs in the low to mid 90s. Temperatures will be warm again tonight, with overnight lows mainly in the lower 70s.
642 AM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025 (Today through Wednesday) Key messages: - Seasonable temperatures and heat index values - Low chances of rain each day Coastal Plains to I-35 corridor A Tropical Upper Tropospheric Trough (TUTT) currently seen over the northwestern Gulf drifts over southern Texas/northern Mexico today and Wednesday. With little or no changes to the lower level thermal ridge, temperatures and heat index values remain close to late June averages.
If low-level temperatures are a little warmer than forecast, more areas will see primarily a cold rain and therefore snow totals will be reduced. If low-level temperatures are a bit cooler than forecast, a quicker changeover to snow and higher snow totals will be possible. The transition from rain to snow will become more widespread and spread east this evening as the mid-level cyclone moves east- northeast across the area and the deformation zone persists across southwestern and central Oklahoma.