Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
(This evening through Friday night) An upper level trough off the west coast of CONUS at this time, is progged to swing into the FA early tomorrow morning. The low pressure center associated with this trough is expected to close off going into the overnight hours tomorrow night.
(This afternoon through Friday) A warming trend will develop over the next couple of days as an elongated presence of ridging drifts eastward across the Southeastern states. Temperatures will be seasonably warm, reaching the lower to mid 60s this afternoon then mid to upper 60s tomorrow with the sun filtering through the high clouds. Although warmer than previous nights, temperatures will still fall into the mid to upper 30s tonight.
(This afternoon through Friday Night) High pressure is definitely the dominant weather feature affecting Middle Tennessee this afternoon, and even warmer temperatures are in store tomorrow owing to a dry atmosphere and abundant sunshine.
(Friday through Thursday) The well advertised wet period will begin Friday as a deep upper level trough slowly moves by to the south of the area beneath a strong area of high pressure to the northeast.
219 PM EST Thu Feb 1 2024 A cold front will move through overnight into Friday, which will bring light rain and snow to parts of the area.
121 PM CST Thu Feb 1 2024 - Mostly quiet weather will continue through Friday, though a weak frontal boundary will bring increasing clouds and slightly cooler temperatures to southwest Indiana on Friday.
- Possibility for freezing drizzle and/or drizzle Friday night. Cold front in western Ontario is moving slowly southwesterly or is nearly stationary this afternoon. This is helping to keep the clouds along the International Border allowing for warmer temperatures. Added in some patchy fog along the International Border ahead of a cold front moving southwest from Ontario. Heading into Friday night, soundings look indicative of the possibility of some drizzle and/or freezing drizzle in eastern North Dakota.
High temperatures each afternoon will hover around the low to mid 70s, while overnight temperatures could continue to dip into the 50s and 60s.
Expect cloud coverage to continue to increase into the overnight hours, which will help keep temperatures a few degrees warmer than last night and most locations are expected to stay just above freezing overnight. Tomorrow will be another way day, with temperatures 5-15 degrees above normal for this time of year, as the upper level ridge strengthens over the southeast US.
126 PM EST Thu Feb 1 2024 - Cold front-induced snow showers ending this evening. - High pressure builds in, leading to clearing skies and cooler overnight temperatures, especially east. Radar returns from KMQT and ground observations show snow showers moving south along a cold front draped from a RAP-analyzed 1008mb low in Quebec. Despite BUFKIT soundings showing no saturation at any layer cooler than -9 C, periods of large aggregates of dendrites have been observed at the office. Snow showers are expected to end this evening as surface flow becomes anticyclonic in response to an approaching mid-1020s mb high pressure sagging south from northern Ontario. On Friday, this will gradually shift eastward, then park a high-amplitude mid-upper level ridge overhead.
327 PM EST Thu Feb 1 2024 Low pressure in western Quebec will track to the Downeast coast by Friday morning. High pressure will build south over Quebec this weekend and into northern Maine by early week.
A cold front sagging south through the area this afternoon will bring a push of clouds into the area once again.
A broad high pressure moving into the southeast U.
As the core of the upper low gets closer, our winds will become more southerly after sunset. There will be a few areas to watch closely on Friday: The Red River Valley where the Pacific front/close-but- not-quite-a-dryline will intersect a warm front. and in southeastern Oklahoma, where the low level moisture is deeper and the maximum wind shear (25-35 knots) will be maximized.
Lacy (Today) An extensive high cloud deck is present across eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas, and with a likelihood of it persisting across portions of the area well into the afternoon, it adds some degree of challenge to the high temperature forecast today.
In addition to fog, moisture adv will support areas of drizzle and freezing drizzle given LL shear and saturated profiles below an inversion. SE winds will increase tonight and esp tomorrow as pressure falls ensue ahead of the advancing western NOAM trough, with gusts over 35 mph expected across NW SD by Friday afternoon. Unusually warm system for early Feb expected this weekend with ample warmth/moisture per reverse Rex blocking. This storm system will bring widespread rain on the SD plains with some snow likely in the higher elevations of the BH and parts of northeast WY, mainly above 5500 feet, although snow amounts continue to trend down given the amount of warm air expected with this system.
1146 AM CST Thu Feb 1 2024 (Rest of Today) A deamplifying 500-mb ridge will shift southeastward across the TN Valley today, and as mid-level winds back to WSW in response to this we expect to see a gradual increase in cirroform clouds throughout the day. At the surface, a weakening ridge of high pressure (initially centered across eastern TN) will build southward, becoming established along the northeast Gulf Coast by late this afternoon. Light southwesterly boundary layer flow in this regime will offset the impact of increasing high clouds to yield warmer afternoon highs ranging from the l-m 50s (elevated terrain) to the u50s-l60s in the valley.
159 PM CST Thu Feb 1 2024 Overall pattern the next 5-7 days is one that features some blocking with a "Rex" type block that develops from strong jet energy diving into the SW CONUS by the weekend and ultimately "cuts off" a mid/upper low by the end of the weekend. dry air and general ridging will keep things quiet and quite nice for early Feb. Look for the high level clouds to push out of the area later this evening.
Low pressure over the Pacific is supporting continued southerly flow aloft. The sea state will be swell dominated on Friday with the highest seas in the outer waters.
For now, our strong warmer than normal pattern will continue, and it will not be until at least the middle of the month until we moderate back towards what is typical for February. We will keep an eye on the stratus along the US/CAN border as there have been hints that it'll track south along a weak backdoor cold front. We kept a SCT group to highlight the potential, but the northeasterly flow should keep things drier in the low levels.
- Possibility for freezing drizzle and/or drizzle Friday night. Added in some patchy fog along the International Border ahead of a cold front moving southwest from Ontario. Heading into Friday night, soundings look indicative of the possibility of some drizzle and/or freezing drizzle in eastern North Dakota.
114 PM CST Thu Feb 1 2024 - Mostly quiet weather will continue through Friday, though a weak frontal boundary will bring increase clouds and slightly cooler temperatures to southwest Indiana on Friday.
South/southwest winds along with an upper level ridge currently centered over our area will result in dry, calm weather with highs in the 60s through tomorrow.
Looking upstream, the main frontal band that's associated with the trough that is moving in tonight is currently located across southern California. Thus, while it will be considerably cooler, remaining breezy and mostly cloudy, it will not be raining all day Friday. Meanwhile, for the mountains, liquid equivalent amounts will be 1 to 2 inches as the higher terrain will be aided by strong orographic lift along the front.
1242 PM EST Thu Feb 1 2024 Dry high pressure over the area today gives way to a dry cold front crossing the region from the north on Friday.
Easterly flow remains thanks to the upper ridge to the east. Lows tonight fall into the lower to mid 30s which could lead to slick spots on roads if fog develops. This is also due to slightly cooler temperatures aloft.
259 PM EST Thu Feb 1 2024 (This afternoon through Friday) A ridge of high pressure aloft as well as high pressure at the surface will dominate the weather regime for the forecast area through the short term period. However, a broken to overcast deck of high clouds will blanket the forecast area this evening, keeping overnight temperatures above freezing for the forecast area.
1139 AM CST Thu Feb 1 2024 Updated aviation portion for 18Z TAF issuance - Areas of dense fog and freezing fog could make for hazardous travel conditions in portions of central and east central Wisconsin this morning. Skies should start out sunny once the fog dissipates, but clouds will return from north to south during the day as a backdoor cold front arrives from the north. Temperatures will rise into the 40s in most places before the clouds and cooler air arrive. Highs will be around five degrees cooler than today, with the coolest temperatures near the bay and lake.
This feature will be accompanied by passage of a weak and moisture-challenged cold front late tonight and early Friday. Cold front coming through Central PA tonight and Friday morning, after the passage of an area of UVVEL associated with the thermally indirect left-exit region of the mid/upper level jetlet. As for ptypes, model soundings currently support a mix of rain/snow over the northwest half of the forecast area, with rain in the lower elevations of the central and southeast (i. Surface temperatures largely remaining above freezing should limit any light snow accumulations to the higher elevations of the Laurels and along the NY border. NW flow behind the departing upper trough/sfc cold front should spell lingering upslope snow showers and plenty of stratocu Friday into Friday night.
Combination of upper jet dynamics, 500mb height falls, and llvl convergence along southward-sinking sfc cold front will all contribute to high POP/low QPF scenario tonight into early Friday morning. Surface temperatures largely remaining above freezing should limit any light snow accumulations (C to <0. 5") to the higher elevations of the Laurels and along the northern tier mtns adjacent to the NY border and Poconos. NW flow behind the departing upper trough/sfc cold front should spell lingering upslope snow showers/flurries and plenty of stratocu Friday into Friday night.
144 PM EST Thu Feb 1 2024 A cold front will move through this evening into Friday, which will bring light rain and snow to parts of the area. A few lingering snow showers continue into Friday with the highest chances across the Finger Lakes region. Temperatures are expected to be slightly cooler, with highs in the mid to upper 30s. High pressure will bring quiet conditions to the region this weekend.
Meanwhile, a high pressure is settling in across the Appalachians, which is keeping and will continue to keep our winds northerly for today.
An unseasonably mild day is on track for today as a high pressure system over the southeast U. pushes warm air into the area from the south, while a weak cold front sinks southward into the area this afternoon. 37 High pressure over the Deep South will dominate the weather across central Illinois today. A weak cold front across the Northern Plains will sink southward into central Illinois tonight. Overnight lows will range from the lower 30s along/north of I-74 to the upper 30s south of I-70. After a cloudy start to the day, increasing amounts of sunshine will be noted by Friday afternoon as the cold front drops well south of central Illinois. Highs will be a few degrees cooler than today in the middle to upper 40s across most locations.
Warm southerly flow continues today ahead of a trough off the West Coast, with one more day of near record high temperatures. This trough will slowly move south today and a cold front will approach southeast OR and southwest ID late tonight into Friday morning. Precipitation will increase late this afternoon ahead of the cold front and continue into Friday morning.
134 PM EST Thu Feb 1 2024 Upper ridging will build over the area into Friday bringing pleasant weather and warm temperatures. A dry cold front passes through the region Friday Night with cooler temperatures expected this weekend.
1146 AM CST Thu Feb 1 2024 (Today through Friday afternoon) Upper level ridge begins to slide eastward over the course of today. Southwesterly flow takes hold and helps temperatures warm well into the 70s for most with the exception of the higher elevations. The main upper level trough enters the region Friday morning with a mid-level jet oriented west to east across Northern Mexico. Western areas reach into the mid to upper 60s and areas east end up in the low 70s.
This secondary wave and associated cold front will push over SE MI tonight. Passage of this feature along with suitable moisture depths to 5 kft will bring the low chance (10-20%) for drizzle to spotty showers tonight into the early morning hours, mainly favored in the Thumb. Precipitation chances will be difficult to come by through the weekend and into the early to mid-week period as a longwave blocking pattern sets up across the continental US. Initially, a longwave ridge will gradually become established across the Plains, building into the Midwest and Great Lakes through the weekend. An upper-level low is projected to develop around the Panhandle of Texas over the weekend and will undercut the longwave ridge, turning the pattern into more of a rex block, with the active weather holding along or south of the Tennessee Valley.
Upper level analysis places a nearly omega pattern over the plains into the midwest with large ridge stretching through our neck of the woods, while a compact low lingers near the Colorado/Kansas border. On Friday, low level moisture really starts surging north- northeastward into the area with low level southeast flow given the lee side trough to our west, and high over the Great Lakes into the upper midwest.
A cold front/col region settling southward into the area, just north of Peoria as of 2 pm, is the main feature in the short term. Temperatures will trend downward somewhat on Friday behind tonight's cold front, but still looking for highs well above normal in mid 40s along I-74 to near 50 from Jacksonville to Lawrenceville.
Mid/high-level winds will veer to NW after Midnight as an amplifying northern stream trough digs southeastward across the Great Lakes, with partial clearing allowing for development of patchy mist/fog as air temps to fall into the 35-40F range immediately before sunrise. The only exception to this may be across our TN zones, where a narrow band of enhanced mid-level cloudiness and perhaps a few sprinkles of rain (originating along a cold front dropping into the OH Valley) may spread southeastward.
(Rest of Today) A deamplifying 500-mb ridge will shift southeastward across the TN Valley today, and as mid-level winds back to WSW in response to this we expect to see a gradual increase in cirroform clouds throughout the day. At the surface, a weakening ridge of high pressure (initially centered across eastern TN) will build southward, becoming established along the northeast Gulf Coast by late this afternoon. Light southwesterly boundary layer flow in this regime will offset the impact of increasing high clouds to yield warmer afternoon highs ranging from the l-m 50s (elevated terrain) to the u50s-l60s in the valley.
636 PM EST Thu Feb 1 2024 A cold front will move through overnight into Friday, which will bring light rain and snow to parts of the area.
A weaker feature rotating around the low near 43N/129W. The low will move little over the next couple of days, leaving western WA/OR with occasional showers with light accumulations. On Friday, the aforementioned low pressure system over the northeast Pacific will finally begin to move, approaching the coastal waters Friday afternoon. Showers will decrease in coverage again Friday night as the upper low begins to meander southward towards the northern CA coastal waters.
640 PM EST Thu Feb 1 2024 A cold front will move through overnight into Friday, which will bring light rain and snow to parts of the area.
641 PM EST Thu Feb 1 2024 - Quiet weather with cooler temperatures tonight. Temperatures are expected to be cooler than the last few nights but still be above normal for early February. Lows generally ranging from the mid teens north to the low and mid 20s south. As the ridge axis builds directly overhead, an omega blocking pattern signature builds, with troughing associated with an atmospheric river event being diverted along the Gulf coast region, with troughing currently overhead being forced off the Atlantic coast by the aforementioned ridging moving overhead. Could see some patchy areas of fog overnight and into the morning hours each day as what is left of our "ripe" snowpack oozes some moisture into the low levels. Daytime Temps: Certainly a lock for above normal warmth as the ridge axis is forced overhead.
Expect a few gusts of 40 to 50 mph along and immediately downslope of the high terrain.
Looking at satellite imagery there continues to be an upper level low off the coast of Washington. This low is bringing a stream of atmospheric river (AR) moisture onshore and is starting to move into our area in southerly flow.
Out west with the low clouds returning, may actually see temps warm a little closer to sunrise.
527 PM CST Thu Feb 1 2024 Overall pattern the next 5-7 days is one that features some blocking with a "Rex" type block that develops from strong jet energy diving into the SW CONUS by the weekend and ultimately "cuts off" a mid/upper low by the end of the weekend. dry air and general ridging will keep things quiet and quite nice for early Feb. Look for the high level clouds to push out of the area later this evening.
933 PM EST Thu Feb 1 2024 A cold front will move through overnight into Friday, which will bring light rain and snow to parts of the area.
521 PM CST Thu Feb 1 2024 (This evening through Friday night) An upper level trough off the west coast of CONUS at this time, is progged to swing into the FA early tomorrow morning. The low pressure center associated with this trough is expected to close off going into the overnight hours tomorrow night.
Cooler but not cold air will usher in as the upper low advances towards the WA/OR coast. Friday highs will be about 2 to 5 degrees cooler than today (low 40s), but still above normal.
548 PM EST Thu Feb 1 2024 - Cold front-induced snow showers ending this evening. - High pressure builds in, leading to clearing skies and cooler overnight temperatures, especially east. Radar returns from KMQT and ground observations show snow showers moving south along a cold front draped from a RAP-analyzed 1008mb low in Quebec. Despite BUFKIT soundings showing no saturation at any layer cooler than -9 C, periods of large aggregates of dendrites have been observed at the office. Snow showers are expected to end this evening as surface flow becomes anticyclonic in response to an approaching mid-1020s mb high pressure sagging south from northern Ontario. On Friday, this will gradually shift eastward, then park a high-amplitude mid-upper level ridge overhead.
622 PM EST Thu Feb 1 2024 Low pressure in western Quebec will track to the Downeast coast by Friday morning. High pressure will build south over Quebec this weekend and into northern Maine by early week.
This is in response to slightly warmer temperatures lingering with some dry slotting wrapping around from the east.
Otherwise overnight lows will mostly run near seasonal normals tonight, ranging from the low 50s near the Lake to near 60 closer to the immediate east coast. High temperatures each afternoon will hover around the low to mid 70s, while overnight temperatures could continue to dip into the 50s and 60s.
717 PM EST Thu Feb 1 2024 Upper ridging will build over the area into Friday bringing pleasant weather and warm temperatures. A dry cold front passes through the region Friday Night with cooler temperatures expected this weekend.
Even with the high/mid level clouds plenty of areas of clear sky and calm winds allowing temperatures to drop. Expect cloud coverage to continue to increase into the overnight hours, which will help keep temperatures a few degrees warmer than last night and most locations are expected to stay just above freezing overnight. Tomorrow will be another way day, with temperatures 5-15 degrees above normal for this time of year, as the upper level ridge strengthens over the southeast US.
519 PM CST Thu Feb 1 2024 - Mostly quiet weather will continue through Friday, though a weak frontal boundary will bring increasing clouds and slightly cooler temperatures to southwest Indiana on Friday.
909 PM EST Thu Feb 1 2024 Upper ridging will build over the area into Friday bringing pleasant weather and warm temperatures. A dry cold front passes through the region Friday Night with cooler temperatures expected this weekend.
534 PM CST Thu Feb 1 2024 (This afternoon through Friday Night) High pressure is definitely the dominant weather feature affecting Middle Tennessee this afternoon, and even warmer temperatures are in store tomorrow owing to a dry atmosphere and abundant sunshine.
524 PM CST Thu Feb 1 2024 (This afternoon through Friday) A warming trend will develop over the next couple of days as an elongated presence of ridging drifts eastward across the Southeastern states. Temperatures will be seasonably warm, reaching the lower to mid 60s this afternoon then mid to upper 60s tomorrow with the sun filtering through the high clouds. Although warmer than previous nights, temperatures will still fall into the mid to upper 30s tonight.
Abundant cloud cover streaming across the area will help to keep overnight temperatures warmer compared to last night. Clouds will move out by morning, leading to plenty of sunshine and a beautiful Friday! (This afternoon through Friday Night) High pressure is definitely the dominant weather feature affecting Middle Tennessee this afternoon, and even warmer temperatures are in store tomorrow owing to a dry atmosphere and abundant sunshine.
304 PM CST Thu Feb 1 2024 - Some patchy freezing fog possible tonight and again Friday night. Surface cold front has already started to encroach upon the Lake Michigan counties, bringing cooler temperatures and gusty winds. Temperatures tonight will be in the upper 20s to near freezing, so any fog that does develop would be capable of freezing on untreated surfaces. Ridging pushes back into the region midday Friday, but clouds may hang on through later Friday afternoon. Currently forecasting highs just below 40 degrees based on the slower erosion, but temperatures could climb into the lower 40s if clouds clear just a few hours faster. Additional concerns for patchy freezing fog develop overnight Friday as high pressure remains over the region, clearing skies prevail, and temperatures fall just below freezing.
For now, our strong warmer than normal pattern will continue, and it will not be until at least the middle of the month until we moderate back towards what is typical for February. As mentioned in the previous discussion, we are continuing to monitor low stratus that is making its way southwestward as part of a back door cold front that will push through overnight. Hi-Res guidance such as the HRRR and RAP both appear to be very aggressive with this low stratus coverage across all sites.
(This afternoon through Friday) A ridge of high pressure aloft as well as high pressure at the surface will dominate the weather regime for the forecast area through the short term period. However, a broken to overcast deck of high clouds will blanket the forecast area this evening, keeping overnight temperatures above freezing for the forecast area.
So will be adjusting the overnight low forecast for the northeast parts of the area and raise them several degrees and they will remain above freezing. Auten A cold front/col region settling southward into the area, just north of Peoria as of 2 pm, is the main feature in the short term. Temperatures will trend downward somewhat on Friday behind tonight's cold front, but still looking for highs well above normal in mid 40s along I-74 to near 50 from Jacksonville to Lawrenceville.