Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Despite the cloud cover, we still managed to get into the lower to even mid 80s at some island locations. As such, the trough will linger for one more day and could help to fire off another round of convection over the mainland tomorrow. Thereafter, deep layer ridging will slide in and build as it enters the Southeast U.
There will be a low chance of light showers developing over our western zones heading into the overnight period as the weak disturbance aloft combines with the cold front and limited available moisture. The associated cold front will continue its southward push towards the Gulf by daybreak Wednesday.
Starting off with clear skies under high pressure aloft this morning. While not traceable in the IR imagery, the high center can be clearly seen along the OR/NV border via water vapor satellite loop.
(Rest of Today and Tonight) Tranquil weather across the Tennessee Valley late this morning, with high pressure promoting sunny/dry conditions. A dry cold front will bring some breezy winds between 10-20 MPH later this afternoon and evening, but the lack of moisture will prevent the formation of any light showers. These winds will become light out of the north, allowing temperatures to drop back into the low to mid 40s.
(This evening through Wednesday night) Generally no/low impact weather expected for the remainder of the week as the upper trough to the east slowly shifts east and upper ridging will slide in behind it. This overall setup will keep temps above normal and rain chances to a minimum until the next trough.
(Through Wednesday) Following the cold front that moved through yesterday, a positively tilted trough at 700 mb is over the forecast region, aloft an upper level trough sits overhead at the 500 mb level.
(Tonight) Gusty WNW/NW winds will graually taper off after sunset in wake of a dry cold front as the pressure gradient begins to relax. As a result, expect lows to fall back into the low to mid 40s in most locations. The dry air mass will prevent the formation of any frost in areas that do dip a little cooler.
Under a high pressure setup, large-scale subsidence will allow mostly clear skies this afternoon, along with a little drying of the low- level air mass.
Pattern Synopsis and Forecast: Short wave trough axis shifts to the east/southeast overnight, resulting in diminishment/transportation of most snow showers out of the area. Wednesday: Clouds decrease for most on Wednesday, with sunshine returning and temperatures rising above freezing. Late March sun should warm to near/above 40 in spots, although some guidance was a little cooler. Pattern Synopsis: Pacific midlevel blocking pattern with Large scale low pressure over the Pacific-NW and troughing over the northeastern U. Midlevel troughing in the middle continues to build subsistence over the central U.
Expect afternoon highs to peak into the low 80s areawide. Dry weather is expected today through this evening but there will be low chances of light showers developing over our western most zones after midnight as a weak disturbance aloft combines with the cold front and available moisture to produce some convection. Temperatures will be warmer than normal and top out in the lower 80s at most locations. Warmer than normal temperatures will continue tonight despite the cold front as sites bottom out in the 50s.
- Conditions turning cooler and unsettled later in the week. Spring is springing across East Idaho with sunny skies nearly everywhere per satellite imagery under influence of strengthening high pressure over Intermountain West. Ridge continues to build into mid-week allowing temperatures to rise through Wednesday.
Winds are not expected to fully decouple as a strong low-level jet remains in place behind the dry cold front. A bit cooler tomorrow but cold advection will likely be offset somewhat by downsloping, although winds aloft not expected to be as strong with the departing low on the weak side.
A weak disturbance moves through on Wednesday, leading to a slight dip in temperatures and some isolated showers over the high terrain.
Temperatures continue to warm under high pressure.
1015 PM EDT Tue Mar 25 2025 A cold front push south through the area tonight.
605 PM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025 - Scattered 20-30 percent chance, light rain showers are expected mainly east of the Buffalo Ridge in southwest Minnesota through about sunset.
Nothing significant developed on the western flank of the boundary as it is currently over the Lower Keys with no shower activity detected on KBYX radar. These breezes are expected to continue to freshen and back gradually throughout tonight as high pressure builds on the northern Gulf coast. From synopsis, weak low level ridging will dominate through the first half of the week, keeping breezes light and largely easterly.
530 PM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025 - Scattered 20-30 percent chance, light rain showers are expected mainly east of the Buffalo Ridge in southwest Minnesota through about sunset.
Issued by National Weather Service Mobile AL 559 PM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025 (This evening through Wednesday night) Generally no/low impact weather expected for the remainder of the week as the upper trough to the east slowly shifts east and upper ridging will slide in behind it. This overall setup will keep temps above normal and rain chances to a minimum until the next trough.
MFL's 12Z sounding and MIA ACARS data already show favorable parameters for strong, damaging winds and small hail, especially given stout SBCAPE, MUCAPE and DCAPE values in the 1000-2000 J/kg range, mid- level lapse rates > 6 C/kg, mid-level temperatures < -10C, and the freezing level sitting just below 13000 ft. Evening lows will also remain on the warmer side with low to mid 60s inland, and upper 60s to around 70 near the coasts.
Troughing is seen in the NE, with ridging in the SW, placing Missouri within uniform northwesterly flow. Lows will be in the middle 40s tonight, warming into the lower to middle 50s Wednesday night as moisture starts filtering in ahead of the next system.
642 PM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025 (Tonight) Gusty WNW/NW winds will gradually taper off after sunset in wake of a dry cold front as the pressure gradient begins to relax. As a result, expect lows to fall back into the low to mid 40s in most locations. The dry air mass will prevent the formation of any frost in areas that do dip a little cooler.
711 PM EDT Tue Mar 25 2025 (Through Wednesday) Following the cold front that moved through yesterday, a positively tilted trough at 700 mb is over the forecast region, aloft an upper level trough sits overhead at the 500 mb level.
728 PM EDT Tue Mar 25 2025 A cold front push south through the area tonight.
The Missouri Ozarks continues to be under northwesterly flow aloft as an upper level ridge builds over the western CONUS and a trough is located over the Great Lakes Region.
Mild conditions dominate this morning across the Keys with temperatures broadly in the lower 70s and dew points in the upper 60s. The pressure field in our area is fairly flat and winds are light and variable due to the Keys position in a gap between high pressure over the eastern United States, troughing off the Atlantic Coast, and Atlantic ridging off to the east. While CAPE is ample due to an upper trough swinging off the Atlantic coast, the near total lack of forcing at any level has prevented much in the way of convective activity. The high is expected strengthen as it advances eastward into the Atlantic through the remainder of the week.
A dry cold front pushed through overnight, and winds have since shifted out of the north and northwest across our forecast area. The airmass is expected to remain quite dry, with surface dewpoints again expected to mix well into the low 30s this afternoon.
930 PM PDT Tue Mar 25 2025 High pressure aloft will move out of the area and be replaced by a low pressure trough.
Issued by National Weather Service Mobile AL 1105 PM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025 (This evening through Wednesday night) Generally no/low impact weather expected for the remainder of the week as the upper trough to the east slowly shifts east and upper ridging will slide in behind it. This overall setup will keep temps above normal and rain chances to a minimum until the next trough.
1155 PM EDT Tue Mar 25 2025 A cold front push south through the area tonight.
1236 AM CDT Wed Mar 26 2025 (Rest of tonight and Wednesday) The weak cold front that moved through northern Alabama earlier this afternoon, currently stretches from northwestern South Carolina to just south of Birmingham into NW Mississippi. This will likely last through around 2 AM before increasing as well ahead of the second cold front. Lows in the lower to mid 40s look reasonable.
(Today) Starting this morning off a tad warmer than yesterday with current lows ranging from 41 in Fort Payne to 53 in Albertville. The cold front that pushed through yesterday is currently located in southern Alabama, however another weak boundary is encroaching southern middle TN. Today, high pressure will dominate and northwesterly winds will persist pulling in CAA.
317 AM CDT Wed Mar 26 2025 - A few degrees cooler today with dry conditions.
Some residual L/L moisture persists across the region in the wake of a cold front, and is creating pockets of low clouds and patchy fog across portions of west central Florida. Aloft, an U/L trough over the eastern U. As the southern extent of the trough exits the Florida peninsula, this will allow heights to build with weak ridging developing over the area ahead of the next upstream southern stream disturbance.
(Rest of tonight and Wednesday) The weak cold front that moved through northern Alabama earlier this afternoon, currently stretches from northwestern South Carolina to just south of Birmingham into NW Mississippi. This will likely last through around 2 AM before increasing as well ahead of the second cold front. Lows in the lower to mid 40s look reasonable.
640 AM CDT Wed Mar 26 2025 (Wednesday through Thursday) Lingering showers and thunderstorms will taper off after sunset today across the Four State Region, giving way to slightly warmer than normal conditions. Ridging over the Intermountain West is starting to break down and shift east. By tomorrow it will displace northwesterly flow aloft and allow some troughing to undercut it to the south across Texas.
307 AM PDT Wed Mar 26 2025 Stronger onshore flow and a deepening marine layer will spread cooling inland with more low clouds for the coast and valleys with the low clouds extending onto the lower coastal slopes by the weekend.
The main upper level trough approaches Thursday and is just to our west by late in the day to provide forcing for additional showers and thunderstorms.
Early this morning will be a relatively quiet start, but winds will begin to pick up along the Sierra ridges by late morning. In fact, snow levels will remain elevated above pass level until the frontal passage allows for a tap into cooler air for Thursday.
Upper level ridging builds into the area for Thursday, which will result in high temperatures int the lower 80s over much of the state Thursday which will be about 15 degrees above normal and close to the record highs that day in the upper 80s.
1002 AM EDT Wed Mar 26 2025 - Warmer and sunny today and Thursday.
Any snowfall will also quickly melt as temperatures rise above freezing later this morning. Another area of convergence aloft further south along a slow moving warm front. Dry conditions under northwest flow is leading to low RHs each day this work week, with widespread in the low 30s and as low as 15-20% in select areas.
609 AM EDT Wed Mar 26 2025 - Warmer and sunny today and Thursday.
(Today through Thursday afternoon) Satellite shows upper level clouds increasing ahead of a trough due to arrive Thursday. An initial minor short wave trough moves northeast across the area today that will spark isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms across the Davis Mountains and Big Bend. The activity today will be modest compared to better coverage expected Thursday with the arrival of the main trough. Highs today will be several degrees cooler than yesterday with the help of upper clouds with readings holding in the lower 80s for most.
High pressure will remain over the Northern Rockies today, allowing for another nice Spring day, with temperatures 10 to 20 degrees above normal. Most locations will also see overnight temperatures remain above freezing, which will help accelerate snowmelt in the mid and upper elevations. Thunderstorms are still expected to develop this evening into early Thursday morning ahead of an approaching cold front. The cold front will pass through western Montana and north central Idaho during the day Thursday.
High pressure will weaken its grip across the region over the next couple of days allowing temperatures to cool off a bit, but readings will still remain near 10 degrees above normal through Thursday.
(Wednesday through Thursday) Lingering showers and thunderstorms will taper off after sunset today across the Four State Region, giving way to slightly warmer than normal conditions. Ridging over the Intermountain West is starting to break down and shift east. By tomorrow it will displace northwesterly flow aloft and allow some troughing to undercut it to the south across Texas.
Much warmer than normal temperatures continue through Thursday.
A dry cold front pushed through overnight, and winds have since shifted out of the north and northwest across our forecast area. The airmass is expected to remain quite dry, with surface dewpoints again expected to mix well into the low 30s this afternoon. High pressure settles over the area Thursday, After a cold start, highs expected to rise to near seasonal average with light winds, in the upper 60s to the north and low 70s to the south. The high will gradually shift offshore Thursday night, bringing slightly warmer overnight lows to the region. Upper ridging begins to strengthen over the area for the end of the week and into the weekend bringing above average temperatures with it.
640 AM CDT Wed Mar 26 2025 (Today) Starting this morning off a tad warmer than yesterday with current lows ranging from 41 in Fort Payne to 53 in Albertville. The cold front that pushed through yesterday is currently located in southern Alabama, however another weak boundary is encroaching southern middle TN. Today, high pressure will dominate and northwesterly winds will persist pulling in CAA. (Wednesday night through Thursday) We'll remain in a dry northwesterly flow aloft Wednesday night into Thursday, with high pressure at the surface setting up to the east of the area. Lows on Wednesday night are expected to drop into the lower to mid 40s again. As a result, with continued sunny to partly cloudy skies, daytime highs will once again by pleasant in the low to mid 70s.
South of the boundary a slightly warmer and moister airmass resided. A record high temperature was tied yesterday at the Tallulah-Vicksburg airport and elsewhere sites topped out in the low to mid 80s. Today sites north of I-20 will be cooler and held in the 70s; north of the stalled cold front. Sites south of I-20 will be much warmer again today and top out in the low to mid 80s again. This will result in dry weather and continued warmer than normal morning lows.
Some residual U/L moisture persists across the region in the wake of a cold front, and is creating pockets of low clouds and patchy fog across portions of west central Florida. Aloft, an U/L trough over the eastern U. As the southern extent of the trough exits the Florida peninsula, this will allow heights to build with weak ridging developing over the area ahead of the next upstream southern stream disturbance.
618 AM CDT Wed Mar 26 2025 - A few degrees cooler today with dry conditions.
124 PM EDT Wed Mar 26 2025 - Warmer and sunny today and Thursday.
Conditions will rapidly deteriorate with gales developing ahead of a strong cold front.
- Cooler Thursday, with storms again possible across southern portions of the area. Thursday looks somewhat more favorable with a weak upper trough providing a bit more forcing aloft along with a surface cold front, although overall CAPE looks similar or slightly less than today. Forecast soundings show drier mid-levels and freezing levels near 8500 ft which would be generally favorable for associated storm hail growth.
(Rest of today through Thursday) A frontal boundary is seen on sfc analyses stretching across northern Florida, while drier air gradually filters at the low-mid levels today. Behind the front, drier air will descend upon the area as broad high pressure across the SE CONUS moves in. Afternoon highs today should reach the low-mid 80s across much of the eastern half of SoFlo today, and even some upper 80s around the Gulf coast. Thursday may see a light cooling effect from the stronger northerly winds, but probably just a few degrees cooler.
Along and south of I-20, warming is ongoing with many pushing the low and mid 70's. KNAPP (Wednesday through Thursday) Lingering showers and thunderstorms will taper off after sunset today across the Four State Region, giving way to slightly warmer than normal conditions. Ridging over the Intermountain West is starting to break down and shift east. By tomorrow it will displace northwesterly flow aloft and allow some troughing to undercut it to the south across Texas.
There is a low but credible chance that a few storms develop over the northern tier of counties/parishes as well today due to this troughing stretching into our area. The H5 trough along the west coast will be the next player as it moves east over the next few days.
High pressure will continue to drift east across the eastern U.
355 PM EDT Wed Mar 26 2025 High pressure will move over the area through Thursday before shifting offshore bringing warmer and moister conditions later in the week.
342 PM EDT Wed Mar 26 2025 High pressure will move over the area through Thursday before shifting offshore bringing warmer and moister conditions later in the week.
The airmass arriving with the high will be decidedly dry, with surface dewpoints in the 30s. High temperatures will be warmer than average, generally in the 70s. Isolated highs in the lower 80s could occur in central Georgia and upper 60s are anticipated at elevations above 2500 ft in the mountains.
A stronger storm system will impact the region late in the week and bring warmer conditions, but widespread showers through the weekend. 330 AM Update: Upper level trough/low will move overhead today with cooler than normal temperatures expected. 500 mb height falls around 50dm in Central NY as the upper trough swings through. Ridging and weak warm air advection will start taking hold on Thursday. Temperatures will be quite a bit warmer, with afternoon highs in the mid to upper 40s most areas and even a few spots topping out in the low 50s.
Meanwhile, high pressure over the Ohio valley and sinking air from the subtropical jet will keep the southern portion of the CWA dry tonight. Discussing the first, building high pressure over the eastern US will tighten the pressure gradient across the Florida Keys surrounding waters tonight and tomorrow.
120 PM MDT Wed Mar 26 2025 KEY MESSAGES: - Isolated strong thunderstorms are possible for portions of Idaho/Clearwater counties and W MT tomorrow with the cold front Thursday. Thursday will warm again but afternoon clouds may temper just how warm we get as a cold front pushes into the region. A ridge of high pressure will continue to cause fair flying conditions over the Northern Rockies this afternoon into the evening. A cold front is still on track to push through the Northern Rockies on Thursday afternoon.
Dry air and mixing will bring dewpoints into the low 30s this afternoon. High pressure will settle over the area Thursday.
1254 PM PDT Wed Mar 26 2025 Stronger onshore flow and a deepening marine layer will spread cooling inland with more low clouds for the coast and valleys with the low clouds extending onto the lower coastal slopes through the weekend.
Warm, well above normal temperatures are expected this afternoon, though they will be about 5 to 7 degrees cooler when compared to yesterday's highs. Tomorrow, a deep trough will edge offshore across the Pacific Northwest and usher in precipitation potential to the Central Sierra Nevada.
250 PM CDT Wed Mar 26 2025 A low pressure system slowly lifting out of the Southwest U.
121 PM EDT Wed Mar 26 2025 High pressure looks to build in and remain over the region through Thursday.
Relative humidity values will increase through tonight as a warm front lifts through the region which will become the focus for potential strong to severe storms across central Missouri Thursday afternoon. Winds will become southerly overnight in the wake of the departing high pressure. This will allow for increasing winds along with warm air and moisture advection to occur as a warm front lifts through the region. Cloud cover will have an impact on how warm temperatures will climb and areas that see less clouds may be slightly warmer (possible closer to the 75th percentile).
High pressure building in later tonight will lead to a dry and milder day Thursday with some sunshine. A stronger storm system will impact the region late this week and bring warmer conditions, but widespread showers through the weekend. High pressure will be in control tomorrow leading to a dry day with sunshine in the morning becoming mixed with afternoon clouds. West to southwesterly flow will lead to a milder day with highs generally ranging from the mid 40s to the lower 50s. There can be some wet snow that mixes in across the higher terrain of CNY, the Catskills and toward the Tug Hill.
237 PM EDT Wed Mar 26 2025 (This afternoon through Thursday) 500mb analysis shows a broad trough along the east coast today with NW flow aloft across the CWA. The trough in the mid levels is expected to persist through tomorrow but will shift offshore tomorrow night as ridging builds in from the west. The boundary should continue to push southward overnight as high pressure builds in from the north. The high center currently across the central US will move eastward through tomorrow and then offshore the coast of the Carolinas tomorrow night.
1236 PM CDT Wed Mar 26 2025 - A few degrees cooler today with dry conditions.
554 PM CDT Wed Mar 26 2025 A low pressure system slowly lifting out of the Southwest U.
These are not expected to prevail throughout the night as high pressure builds along the southeast CONUS and freshens our northeast breezes by tomorrow morning. From synopsis, building high pressure over the southeastern United States will cause freshening northeasterly to easterly breezes tonight and tomorrow across the Keys coastal waters.
Lows will be seasonably warm, some 4-12F above (49-60F), warmer in the southwest half under cloudy skies. /DC/ A low pressure system slowly lifting out of the Southwest U.
- Conditions turning cooler and unsettled to finish the week. Tonight the moisture increases further as a cold front begins to move through the central Idaho mountains. The additional cloud cover and potential for showers will keep temperatures capped to a little cooler than they were today.
- Increasing winds and warmer temperatures Thursday, leading to critical fire weather conditions along the I-25 corridor.
(Through Thursday) A dry cold front pushing through the area today will bring another shot of dry conditions to the region.
(This afternoon through Thursday) 500mb analysis shows a broad trough along the east coast today with NW flow aloft across the CWA. The trough in the mid levels is expected to persist through tomorrow but will shift offshore tomorrow night as ridging builds in from the west. The boundary should continue to push southward overnight as high pressure builds in from the north. The high center currently across the central US will move eastward through tomorrow and then offshore the coast of the Carolinas tomorrow night.