Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Today and Tonight: A larger scale upper trough continues to dig into the Gulf states today into tonight, which puts the forecast area under southwest flow. A combination of the high PWATs, heavy rainfall prone soundings, and the potential for training cells this afternoon, there is a threat for localized urban or flash flooding. - Afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms likely this weekend The area will be pinched between high pressure off the coast and troughing over the middle of the country, inducing deep southwest flow into the state.
432 AM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024 - 30 to 60 percent chance of precipitation Friday, with the highest chances across central South Dakota.
Seasonably normal temperatures continue today as troughing persists aloft.
611 AM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024 (Today through Saturday) The mid-level ridge across the Four Corners gradually edges west as the 500mb trough begins to settle into the central CONUS, sinking south into Texas.
Above-average temperatures continue as high pressure strengthens through Saturday.
A dominating upper level ridge will keep the warm temperatures going through the weekend as well as the isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms each afternoon. For today, an upper level high pressure system will continue its slow, westward progression throughout the afternoon, setting up shop across northern Arizona and southern Utah. For Saturday and Saturday night, the upper level ridge will shift westward with a position across the state of Nevada. Moisture will remain under the ridge with isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms again expected through the day.
That is, a ridge centered to the south and west of the area and a pattern of a scattering of diurnal showers and thunderstorms each afternoon and evening. Chances of any spot seeing a shower or storm is generally less than 1 in 3 in any location, especially in the lower elevations.
Otherwise, CIMSS Analysis this morning shows very strong mean layer ridging across much of the North Atlantic Ocean with the southwestern periphery of this ridge extending westward across Florida and into the central Gulf of Mexico. From synopsis, atlantic ridging will remain across the Florida Peninsula through Saturday, with gentle to moderate east to southeast breezes continuing across the Keys coastal waters. Breezes will increase during the weekend as the ridge strengthens to our north.
735 AM EDT Fri Jul 19 2024 Dry weather will continue through the weekend for much of the area under high pressure. The main exception will be Saturday, where scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected mainly south and east of Pittsburgh with a crossing wave of low pressure. An upper trough will exit the region this morning, with rising 1000mb-500mb heights through the day. This should result in high temperatures a couple of degrees warmer than yesterday, but still near seasonable levels. A late afternoon shower is possible across the higher terrain area of Tucker county WV with diurnal instability, though this potential is low.
616 AM EDT Fri Jul 19 2024 High pressure and fair weather through the weekend.
1013 AM EDT Fri Jul 19 2024 - Somewhat warmer today into this weekend and beyond. Pattern/synopsis: 1022mb high pressure is over northern IL, and will remain anchored over the central and southern lakes region into tonight. Tonight, an e-w oriented cold front backdoors southward across Superior. Highs today upper 70s to around 80f, with some coastlines cooler. The strong upper level ridge of high pressure ("heat dome") across the Four Corners region is expected to remain anchored in place for at least the next several days leaving shallow troughing across the Great Lakes.
623 AM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024 (Today and tonight) The synoptic pattern continues to remain rather stagnant overall with rather expansive upper level ridging still centered over the Four Corners region and broad cyclonic flow aloft over most of the eastern CONUS. East-southeasterly surface flow early this morning will gradually veer more southerly by midday which combined with a modest increase in layer thicknesses will result in slightly warmer conditions today compared to yesterday as highs peak in the low to mid 90s. Convective development seems most probable close to the TX/NM state line in proximity to a modest low level theta-e ridge and more robust midlevel moisture, and will keep mentionable PoPs confined to the western South Plains and SW TX Panhandle this afternoon with largely dry conditions elsewhere during the day today.
950 AM EDT Fri Jul 19 2024 Sprawling high pressure over the Great Lakes will remain over the region through Saturday.
637 AM EDT Fri Jul 19 2024 Sprawling high pressure over the Great Lakes will remain over the region through Saturday.
414 PM EDT Fri Jul 19 2024 Seasonable but unsettled weather will continue for most of the next seven days as Bermuda High and Piedmont Trough remain nearly stationary. Latest surface analysis shows a cold front just north of the local forecast area. This front has worked along with the Piedmont trough and the seabreeze to spawn some sparse convection over the area so far, with more to come over the next several hours. Lows tonight in the low-to-mid 70s. Weak cold front tries to edge a bit closer to the area Saturday. Highs in the lower 90s. The deviation from the normal pattern (more ridging/higher heights aloft) will be the continued deep southerly flow; southeasterly in the low levels and southwesterly above.
A moderate monsoonal pattern will continue under the influence of high pressure aloft over the region through the next several days. The upper level high pressure circulation is centered over central Arizona today and gradually nudging westward. Convective initiation has begun with isolated to scattered coverage over the higher terrain areas. Storm strength is somewhat lacking so far, likely due to less available instability today with the high parked overhead. As has been the pattern the last several days, expect scattered storms to continue through this evening while gradually drifting into the lower elevations. The high pressure circulation will shift west of Arizona while strengthening over the Great Basin.
Ridge axis stays just west of the area on Saturday, with north to northwest flow and additional energy dropping through the region.
Our upper air pattern keeps troughing over the majority of the Ohio Valley accompanied by southwesterly flow.
Saturday will be mostly dry, sans a stray shower here or there, as upper-level troughing continues to settle overhead. Afternoon highs tomorrow will climb back into the low-90s, with overnight lows tonight and tomorrow ranging in the mid-60s to low-70s.
1259 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024 (Today through Saturday afternoon) WV imagery shows an upper ridge centered over Arizona this morning, buttressed by a broad trough along or east of the MS Valley, leaving West Texas and Southeast New Mexico under meridional flow aloft. However, for those averse to warmer temperatures, the next couple of days do not bode well. Although the upper ridge is forecast to drift northwest, centering over the junction of AZ/CA/NV by Saturday afternoon, thicknesses are nevertheless set to increase. Southeasterly upslope flow will favor diurnally-driven junky storms over the higher terrain, assisted by impulses moving south through flow aloft. Saturday, as mentioned above, will be warmer than today, but only by a degree or two.
1251 PM EDT Fri Jul 19 2024 High pressure will bring dry and seasonable weather to the region today with continued low humidity.
On the bright side, the parent low pressure system looks to be right over Oxford at the moment which will keep temperatures much below normal today with limited thunder potential.
Deep mean layer ridging remains in place across the Atlantic with the western periphery extending through Florida and into the Gulf of Mexico. Deep mean layer ridging over the Atlantic is expected to remain in place through the weekend.
922 AM PDT Fri Jul 19 2024 High pressure over the Southwest will bring a more stable and slightly drier atmosphere through the weekend with very hot days and very warm nights for inland areas. So we can see that the high pressure aloft is putting pressure on the marine layer, causing it to back off in spatial and temporal coverage.
445 PM EDT Fri Jul 19 2024 Sprawling high pressure will remain across the Great Lakes through Saturday.
18z WV satellite reveals an upper ridge over the western CONUS and troughing in the east with resulting northwesterly flow aloft over the CWA. This general pattern looks to remain in place through the seven day forecast, leading to temperatures just a few degrees below normal for July with highs mainly around 80 or in the lower 80s.
/NEW/ /This Afternoon through Saturday Night/ Mostly sunny and warm conditions will prevail through the rest of the afternoon as weak high pressure settles into the Arklatex. Highs today should top out in the lower 90s.
140 PM PDT Fri Jul 19 2024 High pressure over the Southwest will bring a very hot weekend inland, along with very warm nights.
1247 PM EDT Fri Jul 19 2024 High pressure will prevail through the weekend with a gradual warming trend. High pressure centered over the lower Great Lakes will keep dry conditions across the region. Highs will be a few degrees warmer than yesterday, upper 70s to the lower 80s. The high will remain anchored just north of the forecast area through the period. Lows will fall into the upper 50s to lower 60s again with highs pushing just a bit warmer than the previous day once again.
At the surface, weak trof of low pressure resides across western SD, oriented north to south. Temperatures across the forecast area at 2pm range from the lower 70s to mid 80s. Weak cyclonic flow will continue across the Northern Plains through tomorrow night as deep upper low spins across eastern Canada.
228 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024 - Temperatures will trend warmer each day through the weekend, but will remain below normal for the next 7 days.
1143 AM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024 (Today through Saturday) The mid-level ridge across the Four Corners gradually edges west as the 500mb trough begins to settle into the central CONUS, sinking south into Texas.
MM/25 (Now through Saturday Night) Our synoptic pattern remains unchanged with upper troughing draped across the northeastern to south-central CONUS while a surface front remains situated across the deep south. High temperatures will be held in check for much of the forecast area today in the lower to middle 80's. Friday night and Saturday night should see lows bottom out in the lower to middle 70's.
Our hot weather is expected to continue through the weekend, thanks to an upper level ridge of high pressure located in the Great Basin. The trough will also tap into monsoonal moisture + instability that is embedded within the Great Basin ridge, so showers/thunderstorms along the Sierra Crest are possible tomorrow.
- A cold front dropping south out of Ontario will bring showers and a few storms across the Northland on Saturday - High temps for this weekend will be in the 70s and low 80s. Tonight: Overnight, we will see lows drop into the lower 60s with the chance for some patchy fog to develop. Saturday: A cold front will be dropping south out of Ontario Saturday morning and slowly advancing south through the day. The model does also hint that some smoke could make it to the surface with the passage of the cold front but as has been noted by the MPCA this model has been a bit over aggressive as of late so confidence is not high enough to warrant any Air Quality Alerts at this time.
203 PM EDT Fri Jul 19 2024 High pressure will prevail through the weekend with a gradual warming trend. High pressure centered over the lower Great Lakes will keep dry conditions across the region. Highs will be a few degrees warmer than yesterday, upper 70s to the lower 80s. The high will remain anchored just north of the forecast area through the period. Lows will fall into the upper 50s to lower 60s again with highs pushing just a bit warmer than the previous day once again.
151 PM EDT Fri Jul 19 2024 - Somewhat warmer today into this weekend and beyond. Pattern/synopsis: 1022mb high pressure is over northern IL, and will remain anchored over the central and southern lakes region into tonight. Tonight, an e-w oriented cold front backdoors southward across Superior. Highs today upper 70s to around 80f, with some coastlines cooler. The strong upper level ridge of high pressure ("heat dome") across the Four Corners region is expected to remain anchored in place for at least the next several days leaving shallow troughing across the Great Lakes.
1259 PM EDT Fri Jul 19 2024 Dry weather will continue through the weekend for much of the area under high pressure. The main exception will be Saturday, where scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected mainly south and east of Pittsburgh with a crossing wave of low pressure. An upper trough will exit the region this morning, with rising 1000mb-500mb heights through the day. This should result in high temperatures a couple of degrees warmer than yesterday, but still near seasonable levels. A late afternoon shower is possible across the higher terrain area of Tucker county WV with diurnal instability, though this potential is low.
402 PM EDT Fri Jul 19 2024 High pressure will prevail through the weekend with a gradual warming trend. Dry northeast surface flow will allow temperatures to range from the mid 50s to the lower 60s. It will be seasonably warm in the 80s with overnight lows Saturday night falling into the lower to mid 60s.
1240 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024 (Today through Saturday) Deep upper trough has taken up a lease on the eastern CONUS and is quite deep for this time of year. So hopefully, this troughiness will move on before the tropics start to heat up.
/44/ (Friday through Saturday) The synoptic pattern which looks to define the course of this forecast period can be succinctly summarized as follows: a large area of ridging will dominate the western third of the CONUS, with its axis positioned over the western Rockies and intermountain West, while a trough of varying depth extends from the Great Lakes across the Midwest and occasionally down into the Plains.
Temperatures should be fairly seasonal, building to above average values towards the end of the period as ridging arrives for Friday and Saturday.
154 PM EDT Fri Jul 19 2024 (Today and tonight) We remain nestled between ridging to the east and troughing to the north and west. Expect daytime highs generally in the low to mid 90s with overnight lows generally in the low to mid 70s.
The overall hot and dry weather pattern continues with a large scale upper level ridge positioned over the interior west. Meanwhile, another weak wave is forecast to move through the top of the ridge, passing over the Canadian Rockies into Eastern Montana on a northerly flow on Saturday. A thermal trough in the surface pressure field over the interior west will help to create an easterly breeze over our region, noted only in the afternoon hours with deep layer mixing.
350 PM EDT Fri Jul 19 2024 High pressure will remain over the area through tonight.
230 PM MDT Fri Jul 19 2024 - Severe weather is possible today as a cold front moves across the region. Damaging winds and isolated large hail are possible as the cold front moves through. Cooler temperatures for Saturday.
The mostly overcast conditions have limited temps to the high 60s to low 70s which will be discouraging for lightning production throughout the afternoon.
Nearly stationary high pressure continues over the western states, and its center is expected to shift to the west from the Four Corners area to over Nevada.
(Tonight through Saturday night) The mid-level ridge across the Four Corners will gradually edge west as the 500 mb trough over the Central U. The models keep a weak signal for a sea breeze in for Saturday afternoon, and PWAT is sufficient though model chances remain on the low end, around 15%.
(This evening through Saturday night) Due to a deep upper level trough over the SE CONUS and a weak low pressure heading into central MS, a stationary front is lingering over the area. As actual temperatures range from the 70s through the next few days and upper 80s throughout the respective daytime, heat index values remain in the low to mid 90s, as opposed to the above 100 values we've been seeing earlier in the month.
1246 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024 (Today and tonight) The weak cold front/outflow boundary that caused the showers and thunderstorms yesterday for southern areas, has made it near or south of Interstate 10 in our area.
Moisture caught beneath an upper-level area of high pressure over the region will return isolated shower and thunderstorm activity to our forecast area each day through the weekend. Storms will favor the higher terrain as it relies on heat-driven instability and orographic lift. Meanwhile, the center of the aforementioned high pressure will remain over southern Nevada through the weekend, which will result in both afternoon high temperatures and overnight low temperatures ranging 8 to 10 degrees above seasonal averages.
(This evening through Saturday night) Latest 18Z satellite analysis shows a decent H500 perturbation moving south along the periphery of the main H500 high pressure system roughly centered over Flagstaff, Arizona. Decent lapse rates along the high terrain in southern CO and northern NM will aid in thunderstorm development.
143 PM EDT Fri Jul 19 2024 Sprawling high pressure will remain across the Great Lakes through Saturday.
Temperatures will again rise to 90-100F for the High Saturday, and with the min RH ranging from 35-70% will expect that we will heat indices will range from 105 to 109F again with a few locations briefly flirting with 110F. Saturday night, it looks like we get into weak ridging aloft so we should be rain free, other than streamers over the Gulf.
High temperatures today will peak from the upper 70s to mid 80s With rain and thick cloud cover over the area for most of Saturday, temperatures will be 3F-5F cooler than today. Key messages: - Little change in the weather pattern Stagnant upper air pattern through the period with a long wave positively tilted trough over the eastern United States. While the potential for showers and thunderstorms covers much of the mountains, southern Virginia and northern North Carolina, the southern Blue Ridge will be the most likely location for storm development. AS for as temperatures, highs will be near normal and lows will be through the period will be just above normal, mainly due to the low level moisture/mild surface dew points.
102 PM EDT Fri Jul 19 2024 High pressure and fair weather through the weekend.
A positive tilted trough aloft stretching from the Hudson Bay towards Louisiana along with an Upper Ridge Axis centered over Bermuda in the Atlantic will allow for Gulf of Mexico moisture to increase over the region for the weekend. Lows in the low/mid 60s are expected with a few upper 50s across southern IN. A general stagnant upper level trough of low pressure will hang across the area.
1208 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024 (Today and tonight) The synoptic pattern continues to remain rather stagnant overall with rather expansive upper level ridging still centered over the Four Corners region and broad cyclonic flow aloft over most of the eastern CONUS. East-southeasterly surface flow early this morning will gradually veer more southerly by midday which combined with a modest increase in layer thicknesses will result in slightly warmer conditions today compared to yesterday as highs peak in the low to mid 90s. Convective development seems most probable close to the TX/NM state line in proximity to a modest low level theta-e ridge and more robust midlevel moisture, and will keep mentionable PoPs confined to the western South Plains and SW TX Panhandle this afternoon with largely dry conditions elsewhere during the day today.
627 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024 (Tonight through Saturday night) The mid-level ridge across the Four Corners will gradually edge west as the 500 mb trough over the Central U. The models keep a weak signal for a sea breeze in for Saturday afternoon, and PWAT is sufficient though model chances remain on the low end, around 15%.
906 PM EDT Fri Jul 19 2024 High pressure will remain over the area through tonight.
623 PM EDT Fri Jul 19 2024 High pressure will prevail through the weekend with a gradual warming trend. Dry northeast surface flow will allow temperatures to range from the mid 50s to the lower 60s. It will be seasonably warm in the 80s with overnight lows Saturday night falling into the lower to mid 60s.
In summary, high pressure will continue to maintain mostly pleasant and tranquil conditions through the remainder of the night across eastern OK and northwest AR. In general, most locations will see overnight lows drop into the low-mid 60s.
The continued amplification of the upper ridge will promote an additional degree or two of hotter max temperatures on Saturday with highs of 100-106 across the lower valleys.
A high pressure ridge axis will remain near or just north of the local Atlantic, promoting 5-12 KT S/SE winds that will enhance to 10-15 KT along the coast and become ESE in the afternoon hours.
However, these showers are struggling to maintain themselves due to the drier air in the lower to mid levels. High pressure extending across Florida into the Gulf has maintained gentle breezes this evening, with marine observation platforms along the Reef measuring east to southeast winds between 8 and 10 knots. From synopsis, Atlantic ridging will remain across the Florida Peninsula through Saturday, with gentle to moderate east to southeast breezes continuing across the Keys coastal waters. Breezes will freshen this weekend as the ridge strengthens to our north.
657 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024 (This evening through Saturday night) Latest 18Z satellite analysis shows a decent H500 perturbation moving south along the periphery of the main H500 high pressure system roughly centered over Flagstaff, Arizona. Decent lapse rates along the high terrain in southern CO and northern NM will aid in thunderstorm development.
541 PM MDT Fri Jul 19 2024 - Severe weather is possible today as a cold front moves across the region. Damaging winds and isolated large hail are possible as the cold front moves through. Cooler temperatures for Saturday.
950 PM EDT Fri Jul 19 2024 High pressure will prevail through the weekend with a gradual warming trend. No changes needed to the forecast tonight, as high pressure remains in place over the southern Great Lakes and northern Ohio Valley. A swath of cirrus clouds is progressing into the area ahead of an upper level trough, but low-level moisture remains limited, with these relatively dry conditions expected to continue overnight. Dry northeast surface flow will allow temperatures to range from the mid 50s to the lower 60s. It will be seasonably warm in the 80s with overnight lows Saturday night falling into the lower to mid 60s.
1039 PM EDT Fri Jul 19 2024 Sprawling high pressure will remain across the Great Lakes through Saturday.
Warm and dry conditions will persist into the weekend as upper level ridging amplifies over the region on Saturday.
656 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024 (This evening through Saturday night) Due to a deep upper level trough over the SE CONUS and a weak low pressure heading into central MS, a stationary front is lingering over the area. As actual temperatures range from the 70s through the next few days and upper 80s throughout the respective daytime, heat index values remain in the low to mid 90s, as opposed to the above 100 values we've been seeing earlier in the month.
High pressure ridging across central Florida and into the eastern Gulf of Mexico is producing a light wind flow with winds 10 knots or less and seas 2 feet or less through the weekend.