Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
With passage of the upper trough axis early in the morning, there is some uncertainty on convective redevelopment during the day esp across the north. Given slightly cooler temps aloft (-12C to -13C), a stronger upper jet and sfc heating, any storms may become strong to marginally severe with wind gusts and hail. The one caveat is if a sea breeze can form along the immediate Treasure coast which would locally enhance the low level shear.
732 PM CST Tue Mar 5 2024 - A few showers and thunderstorms remain possible in southeast IL this evening near a departing cold front this afternoon.
Early evening radar imagery is showing the line of storms associated with the incoming trough located west of Florida and approaching the offshore waters, while isolated to scattered discrete cells have formed in the moist return flow ahead of this system.
Northeast TN and southwest VA running quite a bit warmer than forecast. Due to the location and movement of the low, easterly to southeasterly winds will cross perpendicular to the mountains, which may delay onset of precipitation in the foothills. Tomorrow, temperatures cooler as rain moves out with time into Wednesday and cloud cover lingers. Winds across the mountains will subside as the direction changes out of the north following the lows passage.
Convection gradually weakened through the afternoon and has now moved east of the lower Atchafalaya Basin and coastal waters south of Vermilion Bay. The upper trough continues to progress east with drier air noted in its wake per recent WV and UA analysis. At the surface, a cold front was situated across N LA into E TX, with a dryline apparent from roughly Corsicana to just west of Houston.
804 PM EST Tue Mar 5 2024 Low pressure moves through the forecast area, with rain likely tonight and Wednesday morning.
210 PM PST Tue Mar 5 2024 Dry weather tonight will be followed by increasing chances of rain Wednesday afternoon and evening as a trough moves in from the west.
948 PM EST Tue Mar 5 2024 A low pressure circling off the gulf has ben lifting showers into Georgia from the south.
711 PM EST Tue Mar 5 2024 Showers with embedded thunderstorms will be observed tonight ahead of a slow moving cold front. Temperatures drop behind the cold front on Wednesday although the chance for showers lingers.
518 PM CST Tue Mar 5 2024 - A few showers and thunderstorms remain possible in southeast IL this evening near a departing cold front this afternoon.
457 PM CST Tue Mar 5 2024 (This evening through Wednesday) A weak cold front continues to work its way southward through West Central Texas through this evening, with light winds generally shifting to the north to northwest, increasing cloud cover, and overnight lows dipping into the 40s across the region.
210 PM MST Tue Mar 5 2024 The mess of low clouds across the region and the less than average confidence in the evolution of the passing upper-level low pressure trough from Alberta and through southern Saskatchewan has led to a fairly uncertain forecast for chances of precipitation over the next 24 hours.
526 PM CST Tue Mar 5 2024 (This evening through Wednesday) The weak backdoor cold front moving east to west through our area today will finish its trek across our area to points west this evening under zonal flow aloft. Highs tomorrow will be slightly cooler than today as dewpoints increase slightly under veering H85 from the east tonight to the south by early tomorrow morning.
702 PM EST Tue Mar 5 2024 Showers with embedded thunderstorms will be observed tonight ahead of a slow moving cold front. Temperatures drop behind the cold front on Wednesday although the chance for showers lingers.
A Few Strong to Severe Storms Possible This AFternoon and Early this morning a cold front had stalled out from northwest to southeast across the Concho Valley.
A cold front was located from Mountain Home, to just north of Fort Smith.
853 PM PST Tue Mar 5 2024 Dry weather tonight will be followed by increasing chances of rain Wednesday afternoon and evening as a trough moves in from the west.
NBM highs for today appear too warm given the morning precipitation and cloud cover, so went a bit cooler near the NBM 10th percentile with highs in the upper 50s on the Plateau and low to mid 60s elsewhere. (Thursday Night through next Wednesday) The next round of rain will arrive late Thursday night as deep trough begins ejecting out of the southwest CONUS.
1121 PM CST Tue Mar 5 2024 - Cold front moves through this evening with additional showers and thunderstorms.
1118 PM CST Tue Mar 5 2024 - A few showers and thunderstorms remain possible in southeast IL this evening near a departing cold front this afternoon.
A weak surface cold front will move towards the area tonight into Wednesday morning, perhaps leading to a few rain and snow showers, mainly along the Olympic Peninsula and San Juan Islands, but any activity is expected to be brief and light. Generally dry conditions will prevail through Thursday with high pressure building over the Pacific Northwest. Wet conditions will return by the end of the week as a series of troughs cross the region.
Cold front is struggling to slip through the region this morning. With the combination of rain and melting snow from last night, am concerned about flash freezing on area roads. Late tonight and early Thursday, a stronger push of colder air will arrive and finally drive the cold front through our area. Much colder air is expected on Thursday with highs likely to remain near or below freezing.
700mb flow to become southwest in the wake of a departing upper-level ridge and the approach of a closed low across the southwest CONUS allowing for increased instability overnight.
Will maintain a chance of showers and a few thunderstorms late this afternoon with chances decreasing from west to east through the evening hours as the trough moves over the region.
These light snow showers are associated with the exiting upper level trough that brought showers and mountain snow to much of the area earlier today. This trough will continue to depart to our east overnight and into Wednesday morning, allowing an upper level ridge to build offshore and push into the Northwest over the remainder of the workweek.
Expect the western US to remain under a trough until Thursday, bringing below-average temperatures and occasional light snow in the mountains. Later in the week, a shift to northwesterly flow and high pressure will lead to milder conditions.
Temperatures drop behind the cold front on Wednesday and the chance for showers lingers. Dry conditions return Wednesday night and Thursday as high pressure builds across the Great Lakes. Temperatures remain mild overnight with lows from the lower 40s northwest to the lower 50s southeast. High temperatures will be cooler Wednesday ranging from near 50 northwest to near 60 southeast. Low temperatures to range from the mid/upper 30s northwest to the lower/mid 40s southeast. Period begins dry Thursday under high pressure.
1010 PM CST Tue Mar 5 2024 (This evening through Wednesday) The weak backdoor cold front moving east to west through our area today will finish its trek across our area to points west this evening under zonal flow aloft. Highs tomorrow will be slightly cooler than today as dewpoints increase slightly under veering H85 from the east tonight to the south by early tomorrow morning.
201 AM EST Wed Mar 6 2024 Low pressure moves from the Gulf Coast states this morning to the Carolinas this evening, then offshore overnight. Weak high pressure builds in Thursday.
329 AM EST Wed Mar 6 2024 Light rain will end today as slow moving cold front drifts south. Cooler, drier air arrives behind the front allowing for a dry day on Thursday.
(Today through Thursday) Frontogenesis along the SE CONUS continues to be fueled by low pressure across the NE GOMEX, with a sfc boundary being pushed towards SoFlo. This will keep Afternoon high temperatures in the low-mid 80s, or even some upper 80s over interior areas.
(Today and tonight) A closed upper low located around 300 nm west of the Central Coast this morning will gradually approach the Big Sur region this afternoon before trekking inland over SoCal tonight. Some limited instability is present near the low and a small (10-15 percent) chance for an isolated thunderstorm remains, primarily from the Monterey Bay area south. As for temperatures they will remain fairly seasonal with highs in the lower to mid 60s and lows in the upper 30s and 40s.
Convection will gradually end from northwest to southeast this afternoon and evening as high pressure begins to build in from the north and winds shift to northwest bringing drier air into the region. This high will move across the eastern U.
TFJ The mess of low clouds across the region and the less than average confidence in the evolution of the passing upper-level low pressure trough from Alberta and through southern Saskatchewan has led to a fairly uncertain forecast for chances of precipitation over the next 24 hours.
1053 PM EST Tue Mar 5 2024 Low pressure moves through the forecast area, with rain likely tonight and Wednesday morning followed possible showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening.
1045 PM CST Tue Mar 5 2024 (This evening through Wednesday) A weak cold front continues to work its way southward through West Central Texas through this evening, with light winds generally shifting to the north to northwest, increasing cloud cover, and overnight lows dipping into the 40s across the region.
The western periphery of high pressure located over the western North Atlantic will continue to result in gentle to moderate east to southeast breezes overnight. Overnight into Wednesday, a low pressure system is expected to form and move east along the North Gulf Coast.
The rain will taper off by Wednesday night with high pressure and fair weather returning for Thursday. Warm air advection showers/isentropic lift ahead of this system was resulting in light radar echoes over the southern Blue Ridge and western NC mountains. Temperatures will drop into the upper 40s to low 50s tonight for the mountains, and the low to mid 50s for the Piedmont. Slightly higher amounts are possible along the southern Blue Ridge between Roanoke, VA and Blowing Rock, NC.
Elsewhere, it has been much less impactful, especially in the lower Snake Plain and Magic Valley where downsloping has eaten into precip. A solid swath of 1 to 3 inches seems likely in the lower Snake, maybe 2-4 in the upper Snake with much higher totals expected in the eastern highlands.
(Today) A slow moving low pressure system is currently spinning across west central Alabama this morning. By this afternoon, a cold front will push through the forecast area.
(Today through Thursday) Weak upper-level ridging building overhead today will begin to give way to an approaching upper-level trough Thursday. As the trough approaches, an increase in high clouds is expected as additional moisture moves into the area.
604 AM EST Wed Mar 6 2024 Light rain will end today as slow moving cold front drifts south. Cooler, drier air arrives behind the front allowing for a dry day on Thursday.
- A 20-55% chance of precipitation along a slow-moving cold front this afternoon through tonight.
Later today the approach of a weak mid-level trough in the long southwesterly fetch will increase lift coincident with a modest increase in low level moisture over northern Texas.
259 AM MST Wed Mar 6 2024 After another day of high clouds and near normal temperatures, cooler conditions are anticipated Thursday as a low pressure system moves through the Desert Southwest.
The low clouds will continue to advance through mid-morning, covering a large portions of the area before eroding by early afternoon.
The leading edge of an upper low moves into the area Thursday morning with a stream of high clouds that will keep lows into the 50s. Guidance has trended slightly earlier with the onset of high winds, so have moved the High Wind Watch to start at noon central time on Thursday. Highs once again reach into the 70s for most with low 80s across the Lower Trans Pecos.
656 AM EST Wed Mar 6 2024 (Today through Thursday) Frontogenesis along the SE CONUS continues to be fueled by low pressure across the NE GOMEX, with a sfc boundary being pushed towards SoFlo. This will keep Afternoon high temperatures in the low-mid 80s, or even some upper 80s over interior areas.
Another round of storms are expected to move mainly over the southern half of the area this afternoon, and finally clearing out overnight with the cold front moving through the area.
512 AM CST Wed Mar 6 2024 (Today) A slow moving low pressure system is currently spinning across west central Alabama this morning. By this afternoon, a cold front will push through the forecast area.
IR satellite image early this morning shows the developed upper low center off the Central California coast. Early on Thursday morning the upper low becomes infused with the general wide area of upper level low pressure between the Sierra Nevada and Rocky Mountains.
As for the highlights, we will leave them up for now.
After another day of high clouds and near normal temperatures, cooler conditions are anticipated Thursday as a low pressure system moves through the Desert Southwest.
Temperatures are generally in the lower 70s across the Florida Keys. This low will slowly progress to the east to northeast over the next 24 hours. Clearing skies late this morning and afternoon should allow temperatures to peak into the lower to mid 80s at most communities. The low will finally pivot a weak frontal boundary through the Florida Keys late this evening.
Current conditions/Today: Fairly quiet conditions across the Northland this morning as high pressure is slowly retreating. Satellite shows mid level moisture moving in from the west as an upper level trough pushes into the Northern Plains. Increased lift from this low will help to drive some precipitation across our western counties but with very dry surface and low levels this will likely manifest as virga through much of the afternoon. A cold front will enter later this evening from the west and bring with it some better low level moisture and forcing.
525 AM CST Wed Mar 6 2024 (Today through Thursday) Weak upper-level ridging building overhead today will begin to give way to an approaching upper-level trough Thursday. As the trough approaches, an increase in high clouds is expected as additional moisture moves into the area.
- A cold front will move across the local area on Thursday, with a few non-severe thunderstorms on the warm side of the front along with the chance for some light snowfall accumulations (0. 75"), with the highest totals likely near and south of the NE/KS state line.
Highs today will be generally in the mid 50s with lows tonight ranging from the lower 30s north to the lower 40s south.
500 AM PST Wed Mar 6 2024 A low pressure system will move eastward across the area tonight with precipitation for this afternoon into Thursday evening.
A frontal boundary associated with trough energy along the northern NV border is producing rain and snow showers across Humboldt, Elko and portions of northern Lander and Eureka counties early this morning.
A Few Strong to Severe Storms Possible This Afternoon and Early this morning a cold front had stalled out from northwest to southeast across the Concho Valley.
Thursday will be mostly cloudy and breezy as a percentage of the low level jet is mixed to the surface.
Chances (25-50%) for snow over higher terrain begin again late this afternoon as weaker wave of energy associated with the low to the northeast tracks through southern MT. RH at 700 mb and forcing looks best for the higher terrain as well as far SE MT, so I went ahead and increased PoPs to around 15-25% for Wednesday night for the SE. Weak snow showers may persist in higher terrain through Thursday until troughing exits the region.
The second area is along and ahead of a cold front that is near Havre MT and Maple Creek SK at 09Z. The system moves to the east tonight and high pressure moves into the area overnight with some clearing although the models differ on how much clearing tonight.
As an upper level ridge moves in from the west, dry conditions are forecast to return.
The forecast area is on the cool side of a shallow cold front, which currently extends from the Ohio Valley down to the ArkLaTex. The sharp inversion above the shallow cool layer at the surface will weaken, and this should allow the low cloud to scatter out by this afternoon. The low clouds will continue to advance through mid-morning, covering a large portions of the area before eroding by early afternoon.
123 PM EST Wed Mar 6 2024 Light rain will end today as slow moving cold front drifts south. Cooler, drier air arrives behind the front allowing for a dry day on Thursday.
1002 AM EST Wed Mar 6 2024 Light rain will end today as slow moving cold front drifts south. Cooler, drier air arrives behind the front allowing for a dry day on Thursday.
332 PM EST Wed Mar 6 2024 In the wake of a cold front light rain will come to an end but clouds and a chance of drizzle will persist overnight. Cooler, drier air arrives behind the front allowing for a dry day on Thursday.
- Light rain chances (20%-50%) return tonight as a cold front dives southeastward across the region.
312 PM EST Wed Mar 6 2024 An area of low pressure will track north across coastal sections of the Carolinas through this evening, followed by the passage of an upper level trough overnight.
1214 PM CST Wed Mar 6 2024 (Today through Thursday) Weak upper-level ridging building overhead today will begin to give way to an approaching upper-level trough Thursday. As the trough approaches, an increase in high clouds is expected as additional moisture moves into the area.
MFL's special 17z sounding indicates that their atmosphere has partially recovered moisture in the lower to mid levels from this morning's activity, but their location closer to the major forcing is likely why they are dealing with storms right now instead of us. Back in the Keys, temperatures across the island chain are still restricted to the lower 80s due to prolonged cloud cover. As such have elected to keep middling chance PoPs (40%) as well as a slight chance of thunder matching the lower end of numerical guidance with more recent CAMs solutions. Our area will also be left in a col as the troughing and its associate low slide up the Eastern Seaboard.
Dense fog in the the Lower Columbia and Cowlitz County lowlands has dissipated so have ended the Dense Fog Advisory.
Improving conditions tomorrow, with drier weather, warmer temperatures, and decreasing clouds. Northwest flow behind the system will support showers continuing over the higher terrain through the early morning. Temperatures will be warmer with valley highs in the mid to upper 60s for the afternoon.
On the weather maps this afternoon, area of low pressure responsible for the dreary weather has since pushed NE of Northern AL/Southern Middle TN and is now approaching the DELMARVA region of the E Coast, with the sfc cold front draped SWWrd down the spine of the Appalachians into portions of Central AL/GA and back into Srn MS.
249 PM EST Wed Mar 6 2024 Low pressure along the Mid-Atlantic Coast will move east and away from the area tonight.
900 AM PST Wed Mar 6 2024 A trough centered near Point Conception this morning will bring rain and high elevation mountain snow late this afternoon and tonight as it moves southeast across the area.
From synopsis, a weak area of low pressure centered over the Gulf States will trek northeast to east today through Thursday, resulting in light to gentle south to southwest breezes. Another low pressure system will form over the Red River Basin of the Plains on Thursday.
A trough of low pressure departing the Northern Rockies will keep western Montana and north-central Idaho cooler than normal today.
118 PM EST Wed Mar 6 2024 A cold front will slowly drift to our southeast, resulting in rain showers tapering off from west to east tonight.
1028 AM CST Wed Mar 6 2024 A weak, mostly stationary frontal boundary has backdoored a little more into SC AR and NE LA this morning, enforced by low level northeasterly flow in the lowest 3kft per LZK's VWP.
Torgerson Satellite imagery showed an upper low over Saskatchewan placing Montana in an unsettled cyclonic flow. Some cooler air dropped into the east this afternoon behind last night short wave disturbance producing some brisk conditions in our eastern zones (i. This may produce some light snow in the high country (20-40% PoPs) and perhaps a few flurries over the plains.
706 PM EST Wed Mar 6 2024 Low pressure along the Mid-Atlantic Coast will move east and away from the area tonight.
Threat will subside at sundown with a cold front preventing concerns the rest of the week. - Mostly dry and trending cooler through the early weekend. A cold front is on track to sweep through this evening, bringing a wind shift from SE to the NW. This will act to cool temperatures for a few days as a low pressure system misses us to the south. The cold front, albeit weak, could bring a narrow SW-NE oriented band of light rain and flurries overnight tonight.
With increasing cloud cover and shower coverage into the tonight period, overnight lows will remain slightly warmer than previous nights, mainly in the mid 50s to near 60.
536 PM CST Wed Mar 6 2024 - Accumulating snowfall will end by early evening, so will end the Winter Weather Advisory by 6 pm - Near critical fire weather concerns this weekend as upper ridging moves overhead Afternoon webcams and social media reports indicate 1 to 3 inches (4 now along the border in Pembina County) of snow has fallen along the Canadian border in northeast North Dakota. Models have been showing more precipitation developing along the cold front, which is now passing through a Finley-Valley City- Gwinner line. Wind speeds will increase behind this cold front, especially across the southern half of the FA (highway 200 southward). Upper ridging will slowly move in after todays system with strong agreement among global guidance in the timing and amplitude through the weekend.
- Most areas will see light rain, with uncertainty remaining on how widespread the higher totals are.
321 PM CST Wed Mar 6 2024 - A 20 to 45 percent chance of precipitation along a slow-moving cold front tonight across far northeastern South Dakota and west central Minnesota. - Dry with cooler temperatures Thursday.
233 PM MST Wed Mar 6 2024 Satellite imagery showed an upper low over Saskatchewan placing Montana in an unsettled cyclonic flow. Some cooler air dropped into the east this afternoon behind last nights short wave disturbance producing some brisk conditions in our eastern zones (i. This may produce some light snow in the high country (20-40% PoPs) and perhaps a few flurries over the plains.
508 PM CST Wed Mar 6 2024 - A 20 to 45 percent chance of precipitation along a slow-moving cold front tonight across far northeastern South Dakota and west central Minnesota. - Dry with cooler temperatures Thursday.
IR imagery is showing an upper low pressure center off the Socal coast near 34N/122W. As the low continues to track eastward toward the Socal coast this afternoon, it will continue to pull up moisture into our area today and bring precipitation to Kern County and a chance or precipitation to the West Side Hills and to areas south of Fresno County. As the low moves inland this evening and overnight, it will spread some wrap around moisture into our area through Thursday afternoon and provide for a chance of sharers over the Sierra Nevada. As the low moves inland tonight, cooler air will push into our area and the snow level will lower to around 5000 feet.