Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1231 PM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025 - On and off showers and isolated storms will continue into Saturday, with the highest chances being Saturday morning (50-70%). Dry air in the low levels is making it difficult for anything significant to make it to the ground. The upper-level pattern shows a negatively-tilted trough over the Inter-Mountain West this morning with relatively zonal flow across the Central Plains. Saturday morning we see the negatively-tilted trough move across our region, bringing a more substantial chance for showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms, but again, limited instability should keep anything from becoming severe.
(Tonight through Saturday night) Hot and humid conditions are expected for Deep South Texas tomorrow, as upper level ridging and southeasterly surface flow persists over the region.
- Warmer Saturday with few to no showers/thunderstorms.
Saturday will be very similar to today as upper level high pressure remains in place, keeping showers and storms fairly limited in coverage. Afternoon highs will rise into the low to mid 90s.
Mostly Dry Weather This Weekend Before Returning To Summer Type The Saharan Dust will continue to remain over South Florida through Saturday as the ridge of high pressure remains over Florida. Highs on Saturday will be able to warm up into the lower 90s over the metro areas to mid 90s over the interior areas.
A building high pressure system over the north Pacific will lead to an amplified NW flow pattern that in turn will make for gusty conditions through the Cascade Gaps during the day Friday. As this high pressure system moves onshore, attention will shift toward that of our first heat wave of the summer.
645 PM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025 (Tonight through Saturday night) Hot and humid conditions are expected for Deep South Texas tomorrow, as upper level ridging and southeasterly surface flow persists over the region.
Deep layered ridging is resulting in very low rain chances across the Keys this evening. Meanwhile, the eastern Gulf is within the sharp descending half of a sloppy nearly cut off upper level low centered over Cuba. The ridging, with an assist from a Saharan Air Layer, is providing robust inhibition based just below 950 mb with significant dew point depressions through the lower levels and is effectively capping convection. Expect ridging to remain in control of Keys weather through the overnight period. Surface ridging will maintain gentle east to southeasterly breezes and help to limit overnight cooling. Expect overnight lows in the lower 80s with dew points remaining in the mid to upper 70s. Surface ridging extending west across Florida will maintain moderate east to southeasterlies across Keys waters through the overnight period.
A weak short wave trough in the northwest flow aloft brought high clouds to our Idaho zones today. Latest satellite pix show a second weak trough just north of the first, so high clouds will continue in Idaho most of the night, then clear from the northwest toward sunrise.
640 PM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025 - A cold front will bring a 40 to 70% chance of thunderstorms Saturday afternoon/evening, highest east of the Missouri River.
Since convection doesn't appear to be favorable, PoPs were lowered Overnight lows are expected to be in the lower 70s, which could reach record warm low temps. /SW/ Today our area is at the interface between suppression associated with a mid level ridge extending from the western Gulf into the Lower MS Valley and a regime of more active flow from the Great Plains through the Ohio Valley to New England. Given marginally supportive deep shear and moderate to strong instability, a few severe storms cannot be ruled out across mainly northeastern portions of our area on the periphery of the upper ridging.
A quiet night is anticipated with lows a few degrees warmer, but afternoon highs on Saturday will be similar to today. 7 in with the highest values remaining inland during this time.
722 PM EDT Fri Jun 6 2025 Showers and thunderstorms are lifting across the area associated with a surface warm front. The wet weather, with reduced chances for heavy rainfall, will linger overnight into Saturday morning before the low pressure system moves to our east and drags a weak cold front through the area. A secondary cold front will follow Saturday afternoon. The second half of the weekend should be mostly dry as ridging briefly builds over the region. We should start off with ample sunshine, but some fair weather cumulus could bubble up in the afternoon, especially over the higher terrain.
743 PM EDT Fri Jun 6 2025 Showers and thunderstorms are lifting across the area associated with a surface warm front. The wet weather, with reduced chances for heavy rainfall, will linger overnight into Saturday morning before the low pressure system moves to our east and drags a weak cold front through the area. A secondary cold front will follow Saturday afternoon. The second half of the weekend should be mostly dry as ridging briefly builds over the region. We should start off with ample sunshine, but some fair weather cumulus could bubble up in the afternoon, especially over the higher terrain.
1027 PM EDT Fri Jun 6 2025 Showers and thunderstorms are lifting across the area associated with a surface warm front. The wet weather, with reduced chances for heavy rainfall, will linger overnight into Saturday morning before the low pressure system moves to our east and drags a weak cold front through the area. A secondary cold front will follow Saturday afternoon. The second half of the weekend should be mostly dry as ridging briefly builds over the region. We should start off with ample sunshine, but some fair weather cumulus could bubble up in the afternoon, especially over the higher terrain.
- Breezy to locally windy conditions, especially along the Rocky Mountain Front, will diminish tonight with a turn to north or northwest winds and cooler temperatures expected Saturday.
558 PM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025 Today our area is at the interface between suppression associated with a mid level ridge extending from the western Gulf into the Lower MS Valley and a regime of more active flow from the Great Plains through the Ohio Valley to New England. Given marginally supportive deep shear and moderate to strong instability, a few severe storms cannot be ruled out across mainly northeastern portions of our area on the periphery of the upper ridging.
Another day of terrain-based isolated showers and thunderstorms as an elongated trough over the region taps into persistent anomalous moisture. Partly cloudy skies and dry conditions will then follow for tonight, with lows on target to drop to the 60s and 70s for most, with 50s in the higher terrain. An elongated trough stretched across the Desert Southwest will close off of the southern California Coast today as it ejects a vorticity maxima across the Mojave Desert. A ridge of high pressure over northern Mexico will begin to nose northward through the Desert Southwest this weekend, which will help clear out left over moisture.
453 PM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025 Today our area is at the interface between suppression associated with a mid level ridge extending from the western Gulf into the Lower MS Valley and a regime of more active flow from the Great Plains through the Ohio Valley to New England. Given marginally supportive deep shear and moderate to strong instability, a few severe storms cannot be ruled out across mainly northeastern portions of our area on the periphery of the upper ridging.
Forecast this early evening remains on track as temperatures remain in the low to mid 70s across the region. The lows associated cold front will bring the potential for severe weather across the region Saturday as it propagates east.
- A cold front pushes through the region tonight into early Sunday morning.
- A modest cold front will progress southward through the Tri- State area Sunday morning, stalling over southern Kansas (near the Oklahoma border) during the afternoon. Sunday: A modest cold front will progress southward through the Tri-State area Sunday morning, stalling over southern Kansas (near the Oklahoma border) during the afternoon.
207 AM MDT Sat Jun 7 2025 KEY MESSAGES: - A cold front this morning will bring gusty NW winds which will persist through Sunday evening. The low humidity and gusty winds are also expected on Sunday.
***UPDATE*** The low clouds and fog have cleared out more than expected, with clouds just over the Los Angeles County coasts.
Unsettle weather makes a return late Sunday afternoon as low pressure makes its way across the Ohio Valley. While most areas will see dry weather this afternoon, a few hi-res models do show a shower or two fire up across the higher terrain of the Southern Tier, Finger Lakes, and North Country. High pressure passing to our north will maintain dry weather Saturday night.
233 AM EDT Sat Jun 7 2025 * A cold front over Central PA will push south and east today, forcing more showers and thunderstorms.
- Cooler with a bit of wet weather to begin the work week. While the former has kept the low levels of the column rather dry, the latter has just enough low level moisture associated with it to kick off a few sprinkles at times. Otherwise, partly to mostly cloudy skies centered across the Northwoods, with near seasonal temperatures ranging through the 60s into the lower 70s. Really couldn't ask for much better early summer temperatures, with lows tonight in the 40s to lower 50s and highs Saturday in the lower and middle 70s (just a smidge cooler near those big waters of course).
(Today through Sunday) High pressure surface and aloft ridging east/west across South Florida will continue through the weekend, acting as a stabilizing factor which is expected to cut down on the coverage of showers and thunderstorms. A narrow plume of Saharan dust trapped in the weak flow around the ridge will persist over South Florida, adding to the stability and drier air in the 850-500 mb layer. Sunday may see a slightly more favorable environment for a couple more showers/thunderstorms due to an upper level trough across the SE U. weakening the ridge ever so slightly.
slightly warmer on Saturday but with dry/comfortable dew point and humidity, and a slight cool down for Mon-Tue. A leading cold front is more likely to touch off scattered showers or storms Sunday evening into the night. Models suggest modest instability with CAPE focused mainly in the lower mid-levels but just enough for lightning potential. A few showers may develop with daytime heating underneath the low Mon-Tue.
An overnight MCS rolling across Colorado into Kansas will send a convectively enhanced cold front through the area on Saturday morning.
- Warmer Saturday with few to no showers/thunderstorms. Temperatures will be warmer with highs in the lower to mid 80s across northeast Colorado. A weak push from the north Saturday night will help to increase low level moisture over northeast Colorado and bring cooler temperatures for Sunday. Highs for Sunday look to reach the lower to mid 70s across northeast Colorado.
The increase in clouds should limit highs mainly to the lower to mid 70s. A digging upper low to our north and attendant upper diffluence and PVA coupled with a surface cold front will provide another chance (40-60%) for showers and storms on Sunday.
1148 PM MDT Fri Jun 6 2025 - A back door cold front Saturday night will bring scattered showers and thunderstorms to our northern zones late Saturday night/Sunday morning, followed by another round Sunday PM near the WY higher terrain.
Regional satellite imagery shows the center of a 594dm Subtropical Ridge over south Texas. This ridge will build northward today through Sunday, leading to hot and humid conditions across all of South Central Texas.
Temperatures will warm to near normal Saturday but fall back to somewhat below Sunday behind a cold front.
Isolated showers remain possible this afternoon into early this evening in the vicinity of a weak 925-850 mb trough axis and differential heating boundaries. Later tonight into most of Saturday will feature dry conditions and a trend toward at least partly cloudy skies as weak ridging translates east through the Great Lakes in between upper level waves. A model consensus has continued to come into better agreement on a period of rain later Saturday night into Sunday morning as a more pronounced pv anomaly tracks east through the southern Great Lakes inducing a weak sfc reflection or inverted trough.
Good rotation is visible with the MCS on satellite and radar, therefore, coupled with the low level shear, this will increase the brief, spin-up tornado threat over the southwestern and southern portion of the region with the next wave. On Sunday, better troughing will swing through the region picking up the stationary boundary and pushing it southeast as a cold front.
219 AM EDT Sat Jun 7 2025 Showers and thunderstorms are lifting across the area associated with a surface warm front. The wet weather, with reduced chances for heavy rainfall, will linger overnight into Saturday morning before the low pressure system moves to our east and drags a weak cold front through the area. A secondary cold front will follow Saturday afternoon.
Temperatures are forecast to be very summer-like with lows in the lower to middle 70s both Saturday and Sunday nights and highs in the lower 90s Sunday afternoon.
An MCS tracking through Colorado and Kansas will push a convectively enhanced cold front through our region early this morning. It will be a warm day with highs in the mid 80s to mid 90s despite the passage of the cold front.
1026 PM MDT Fri Jun 6 2025 KEY MESSAGES: - A cold front on Saturday will introduce gusty NW winds which will persist through Sunday evening.
A break arrives Sunday as high pressure briefly builds.
Biggest concern in the short term will be heat as the region remains on the northern periphery of an upper level ridge offering weak subsidence over the western gulf coast. The upper ridge will be pushed back offshore by late Sunday as a broad upper trof works into the region stalling a weak frontal boundary across central or north Louisiana Sunday night.
1236 AM CDT Sat Jun 7 2025 (Tonight through Sunday night) Hot and dry conditions are expected to continue across deep south Texas and the Rio Grande Valley through Sunday night as mid-level ridging remains persistent and an upper level high pressure maintains northwest flow aloft as it regresses southwestward into Mexico.
238 AM CDT Sat Jun 7 2025 - A cold front will bring showers and thunderstorms late this afternoon/evening, highest east of the Missouri River. - Gusty northwest winds of 35-45 mph possible Sunday with cooler temperatures in the upper 60s to low 70s.
High pressure surface and aloft will hold over the region through the weekend.
This will lead to Hot and Humid conditions with highs in the lower to middle 90s, while the westerly flow will push the heat all the way to the beaches with peak heat indices around 105F this afternoon. Above normal temps will continue tonight with lows only falling into the lower/middle 70s inland and upper 70s along the Atlantic Coast.
- Additional storms are expected along a cold front Sunday afternoon/evening. Temperatures Saturday will be limited by convection and cloud cover with highs in the low to mid 70s. Conditions will dry out Saturday night with high pressure residing over the area. However, dry conditions will be short-lived as on Sunday a upper level trough digs into the Upper Midwest. This will force a cold front through the area.
On Sunday, the broad upper level low centers itself over the Northland with embedded waves pinwheeling around its cyclonic flow. Thus, Sunday will be cooler with high temperatures generally in the 60s with continued scattered rain showers through the day and night, with a few thunderstorms as well given the cool temperatures aloft.
Another area of convection has developed this morning across central Nebraska, which will continue to progress to the east southeast through the morning hours with the mid level trough axis, likely eventually becoming a relatively well developed MCS as it moves through our CWA from west to east from roughly 9 AM through mid afternoon. By tonight, a closed mid level low develops over southern Saskatchewan, with an accompanying amplified mid upper trough beginning to dig southward into the far northern High Plains. By around noon Sunday, the closed 500 mb low is progged to descend to SE of Winnipeg, with the southern extent of the trough advancing southward into the mid Mississippi Valley. This will send a cold front through the CWA from northwest to southeast from late Sunday morning into Sunday afternoon.
- After a mostly sunny afternoon with high temperatures peaking near 80, a cold front will bring cooler temperatures (low to mid 70s) along with a few showers and possibly a non severe thunderstorm to parts of the area Sunday.
604 AM CDT Sat Jun 7 2025 - A cold front will bring showers and thunderstorms late this afternoon/evening, highest east of the Missouri River. - Gusty northwest winds of 35-45 mph possible Sunday with cooler temperatures in the upper 60s to low 70s.
Quiet weather is on tap, as a moisture starved low pressure system over the Bay Area will shift southwest a few hundred miles off the Central Coast. This low pressure system will cause 500 mb heights and thicknesses to rise over the area the next couple of days, allowing high temperatures to warm 1-3 degrees each day (especially for more inland areas). High temps are expected to reach the low to mid 90s in the warmest valleys, while coastal areas are in the upper 60s and 70s. Additionally, slow (and maybe even limited) clearing at the beaches could keep high temps a little cooler than currently forecast.
626 AM CDT Sat Jun 7 2025 (Tonight through Sunday night) Hot and dry conditions are expected to continue across deep south Texas and the Rio Grande Valley through Sunday night as mid-level ridging remains persistent and an upper level high pressure maintains northwest flow aloft as it regresses southwestward into Mexico.
452 AM CDT Sat Jun 7 2025 - Showers and storms are expected today and tonight with a warm front. - Cooler than average temperatures and wrap around showers behind this system. This environment will lead to scattered general thunderstorms throughout the afternoon prior to the arrival of a cold front later this evening.
Another wave sits off to the west over the Rockies with upper low centered over northern AB/SK. This wave will cross the northern plains this morning as the upper low grazes the CWA. Upper low digs southeastward into the Great Lakes region with upper level ridging building in behind it. This should facilitate a warming trend for the early to mid week as low level thermal ridge develops across the plains.
Water vapor imagery early this morning reveals weak upper ridging over the eastern Dakotas into Minnesota ahead of a stout upper low diving southward over the Canadian High Plains toward the Northern Plains. This stout upper low and its attendant cold front will drive high chance (80%) for showers and thunderstorms as well as the chance for strong to severe storms this afternoon into early evening. This cold front will bring gusty winds ahead and behind the front, particularly post-frontal winds Sunday. Additionally, given the strong nature of this cold front, effective mixing of winds aloft will even occur overnight tonight. As the upper low moves into the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes region, it slows its forward progression as it deepens.
541 AM MDT Sat Jun 7 2025 - A back door cold front Saturday night will bring scattered showers and thunderstorms to our northern zones late Saturday night/Sunday morning, followed by another round Sunday PM near the WY higher terrain.
Unsettle weather makes a return late Sunday afternoon as low pressure makes its way across the Ohio Valley. While most areas will see dry weather this afternoon, a few hi- res models do show a shower or two fire up across the higher terrain of the Southern Tier, Finger Lakes, and North Country. High pressure passing to our north will maintain dry weather Saturday night.
631 AM CDT Sat Jun 7 2025 - Showers and storms are expected today and tonight with a warm front. - Cooler than average temperatures and wrap around showers behind this system. This environment will lead to scattered general thunderstorms throughout the afternoon prior to the arrival of a cold front later this evening.
Should see clouds and precipitation chances increase across our northwestern forecast area as the cold front approaches. Water vapor imagery early this morning reveals weak upper ridging over the eastern Dakotas into Minnesota ahead of a stout upper low diving southward over the Canadian High Plains toward the Northern Plains. This stout upper low and its attendant cold front will drive high chance (80%) for showers and thunderstorms as well as the chance for strong to severe storms this afternoon into early evening. This cold front will bring gusty winds ahead and behind the front, particularly post-frontal winds Sunday. Additionally, given the strong nature of this cold front, effective mixing of winds aloft will even occur overnight tonight. As the upper low moves into the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes region, it slows its forward progression as it deepens.
Isolated terrain based convection will be possible across the Eastern Sierra and Southern Great Basin over the weekend as a ridge of high pressure slowly pushes moisture to the north over the weekend. Ridging will continue to push into the area from the south over the weekend. This building ridge will push the anomalous moisture responsible for this week's active weather to the north, with the Mojave Desert seeing precipitable water (PW) return to normal over the weekend. While moisture is technically above normal, the low levels of the atmosphere will be dry. Outside of chances for isolated showers and thunderstorms in the Eastern Sierra and mountains of the southern Great Basin, temperatures will heat up over the weekend as the aforementioned ridge builds into the area.
High temperatures for this afternoon will be in the lower to mid 90s with heat index values rising to be above 100 degrees. This will lead to Hot and Humid conditions with highs in the lower to middle 90s, while the westerly flow will push the heat all the way to the beaches with peak heat indices around 105F this afternoon. Above normal temps will continue tonight with lows only falling into the lower/middle 70s inland and upper 70s along the Atlantic Coast.
Farther north, it's possible some locations could remain dry, especially for locations along the Highway 20 corridor. Other CAM guidance doesn't seem to have this, hence the lower confidence. A broad upper-level trough is expected to approach our region, with a cut-off upper low over Manitoba Canada moving over far northern MN by the afternoon. A PVA maxima and attendant cold front is expected to dive through our region by the afternoon, which will provide the large scale forcing for increased chances (30-60%) of showers and storms. Any lingering showers and storms ongoing early Sunday evening will eventually wane as the aforementioned cold front and PVA maxima exit the region, making for a dry night Sunday night. However, the upper- level trough will continue to linger over the western Great Lakes region, keeping cyclonic flow over the region.
1049 AM EDT Sat Jun 7 2025 High pressure will bring mostly sunny and seasonable weather today. Unsettled weather makes a return late Sunday afternoon as low pressure makes its way across the Ohio Valley. While most areas will see dry weather this afternoon, a few hi-res models do show a shower or two fire up across the higher terrain of the Southern Tier, Finger Lakes, and North Country. High pressure passing to our north will maintain dry weather Saturday night.
Not much is expected to change going into tonight, as mean layer ridging keeps winds light to gentle and east to southeasterly and SAL limits shower development.