Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Look for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms each afternoon/evening, especially over the higher terrain. Showers and storms should taper later this evening with isolated activity forecast for Thursday, mainly along the high terrain.
1245 PM CDT Wed Aug 28 2024 (Today and tonight) An already weak upper low was over western Sutton County at 1 AM. This low will further weaken over our area today. Overnight lows will be in the in the upper 60s to lower 70s in our southern and central counties, and in the lower 70s across the Big Country.
1229 PM CDT Wed Aug 28 2024 (Today through Thursday afternoon) A gradual moistening trend will continue today as a 850-700 mb ridge becomes positioned to our east.
(This evening through Thursday night) On the large-scale, a seasonably potent upper-level trough is located in the vicinity of the Montana/Saskatchewan/Alberta area. Meanwhile, satellite water vapor imagery shows a weak upper-level trough over Arizona/New Mexico. the subtle weak trough in the Southwestern US will track northeastward through the afternoon with a cold front surging in from the north. Thunderstorms may start in the mid-afternoon well ahead of the cold front, but the primary activity will be in the late afternoon through the nighttime hours with the frontal passage. The cold front should move through the Panhandles by the end of Thursday night but showers and possibly a thunderstorm or two may linger.
(Now through Thursday) An upper level ridge will remain across the southeast states while a weak upper low spins across the northwest Gulf. The local area remains on the eastern edge of the higher moisture values through Thursday. Temps will remain above normal with highs in the low to mid 90s.
1218 PM CDT Wed Aug 28 2024 Updated aviation portion for 18Z TAF issuance - Cooler and less humid today.
Partly to mostly cloudy skies continue to keep parts of east-central MN and western WI about 5-10 degrees cooler than other locations this afternoon. Mid-level lapse rates are on the lower end, however there should be enough ascent along the front as it marches southeastward.
However, warmer temps aloft will suppress more widespread activity. The highest PoP today (around 40 percent) is focused from near Orlando and points west. Otherwise, expect daytime highs to reach the low 90s with heat indices around 100-106 degrees. Weak high pressure across the southeast U. A persistent pattern continues with light onshore (E/ESE) flow 6-12 kts, becoming more SERLY Sat night-Sun as the ridge axis remains north of the local waters.
(This evening through Thursday) A weakening upper low that is currently over southwest portions of the forecast area, will result in widely scattered showers and a few thunderstorms this afternoon and early evening. Temperatures will be a little warmer tomorrow, with highs ranging from the lower 90s along the I-10 corridor, to the upper 90s across the Big Country.
Cold front was E of the forecast area and upper low was centered on the MT/Canadian border per water vapor imagery and mesoanalysis. Also have a chance of showers from KBIL N overnight as a second cold front crosses the area and energy from the upper low pushes through the area. will be several degrees warmer than they were today, with RH's from the low 20s W to the low 40s E.
1239 PM CDT Wed Aug 28 2024 (Tonight through Thursday night) Key Message: - Potential for tropical funnel clouds and waterspouts today - Medium to high (50-65%) chance of showers and thunderstorms today Although the mid-level low from earlier in the week is now to our north over Central Texas, another mid-level low is expected to develop over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico and cause inverted troughing over the Texas Coast today into the late week. Troughing, in addition to surface heating, the seabreeze, and PWATs nearing 2. Typical summer night lows tonight ranging from the mid 70s inland to the lower 80s along the coast.
The exception here is the southern San Juan Mountains and southern foothills along the Highway 160 corridor where a few showers have popped this afternoon. Clear skies are seen across northwest Colorado where an upper level trough is tracking across the Intermountain West into the Northern Rockies near the Canadian border. The northwest flow behind the northern trough will usher in much drier air Thursday, as PWAT anomalies drop to 20 to 40 percent across the north and 50 to 70 percent of normal elsewhere. The overnight lows though could trend more on the cooler side of normal as drier air and clear skies will lead to more efficient radiational cooling.
(Rest of today through Thursday) With apex of upper level ridging influences shifting across southern portions of our area presently, temperatures have already in many locations into low to mid 90s with 97 degrees already recorded at Nashville International Airport at 11:41 AM CDT. Thursday morning will continue to be dry also, but at least a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms will be possible across locations around and south of I-40 Corridor Region on Thursday afternoon as some weakening in upper level ridging begins with some lower level moisture from the deep south trying to sneak into our area.
229 PM MDT Wed Aug 28 2024 - Storms are likely over portions of the area on Thursday, mainly in northwest Kansas with a cold front.
This will lead to a trough stretched from northwest to southeast across Central and South TX later today. Models also show a mid/upper level low swinging across the northern Plains on Thursday with its axis stretching into TX and merging with TX's trough, thus helping to intensify troughing across the region through Thursday. The combination of the trough with deep moisture (PWATs 1. The highest (50-70%)chance will be across the Victoria Crossroads due to better instability and the proximity to the upper low and deeper moisture.
Current surface analysis places low over southern Saskatchewan, with cold front sweeping through western North Dakota, right now generally running from Tioga to Dickinson to Hettinger. On Thursday, upper low will push east-northeast into southern Manitoba before becoming quasi-stacked. A stretch of drier conditions are expected going into and through the holiday weekend with ridging to the west which will gradually move east to start the upcoming week. Timing things out between the cold front and associated thunderstorms/wind shifts tonight is tricky and will likely still need to be tweaked and amended but tried to paint the picture of current expectations best as possible.
Winds should continue to diminish as the cold front and low pressure to our north pushed on to the east. Temperatures will be a bit warmer tomorrow and tomorrow night, but we will still see afternoon highs that are below average.
Upper level ridging will keep unseasonably warm temperatures rolling in the region today and Thursday.
The deep low pressure system that is starting to exit the Northern Rockies continues to cause multiple impacts. Snow continues to accumulate in the higher terrain of northwest Montana, so a winter weather advisory is still in effect for portions of area. The low pressure system will continue to move off to the east tonight causing the precipitation to end and the skies to clear. The areas of exception will be over north central Idaho where temperatures already dropped dramatically last night, should actually experience slightly warmer temperatures by Thursday morning. A ridge of high pressure will be building over the Northern Rockies for the remainder of the work week into the weekend.
Look for quiet and dry conditions with warmer temperatures to continue in the late week with chances for isolated/dry thunderstorms returning over the weekend across portions of central and northern Nevada. Tonight through Thursday night Quiet, dry weather continues as an upper level high moves over Nevada behind the upper level low over Montana head east. Overnight temperatures expected to be cooler as the low brings in cooler air over northern Nevada, dropping lows into the 30s to 40s. Thursday, temperatures gradually increase as the upper level high moves over the state with the low pushing east, making high temperatures reach back into the upper 80s to 90s and lows back into the 40s to 50s.
219 PM EDT Wed Aug 28 2024 Hot and humid high pressure will remain across the region through the rest of the work week.
pdf High pressure shifting offshore of the southeastern seaboard will maintain east-southeasterly flow across the area. A strong storm may be possible due to slightly cooler temperatures aloft and high DCAPE and capable of producing heavy downpours and gusty winds. Persistent onshore flow will keep coastal highs in the upper 80s, with inland highs in the low to mid 90s.
Sunny, breezy, and cooler today behind last night's cold front.
Northwest Montana will continue to experience fairly steady precipitation for the remainder of the afternoon into the early evening as the low pressure system exits the region. The deep low pressure system that is starting to exit the Northern Rockies continues to cause multiple impacts. Snow continues to accumulate in the higher terrain of northwest Montana, so a winter weather advisory is still in effect for portions of area. The low pressure system will continue to move off to the east tonight causing the precipitation to end and the skies to clear. The areas of exception will be over north central Idaho where temperatures already dropped dramatically last night, should actually experience slightly warmer temperatures by Thursday morning. A ridge of high pressure will be building over the Northern Rockies for the remainder of the work week into the weekend.
1217 PM CDT Wed Aug 28 2024 (Today through Thursday night) A quiet day today as we remain under the influence of weak high pressure.
148 PM MDT Wed Aug 28 2024 KEY MESSAGES: - Cooler air will prevail through the next couple days before a warm up into the weekend. WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: A large low pressure system will move across the area today and tonight. Dry air is expected to warp into the low as the first band of precip moves by and dry it out rapidly leading to almost no rain.
226 PM EDT Wed Aug 28 2024 (This afternoon through Thursday) High pressure aloft and at the surface through the period. A weak lee trough is noted across northeastern portions of the CWA.
1228 PM CDT Wed Aug 28 2024 (Today through Thursday) A broad unstable pattern sits over much of Texas, with much of the lift being provided by a mid to upper level low. While the upper level portion of the low is holding nearly stationary over South TX, the mid level low/shear axis is shifting into West TX while another mid level shear feature is on track to amplify near Houston later tonight and into East TX Thursday.
- Most areas will be cooler tomorrow, especially those areas that the front hasn't crossed yet today. The main weather impact continues to be the result of the trough crossing Montana today. The trough is also pushing a cold front southward across the state, with north winds in its wake. The front has been bringing slightly cooler and more moist air behind it, so humidity levels have moderated for areas that have been hit by the fire recently. The front will continue to sweep southward tonight, but will be washing out as the associated trough continues to the east.
1156 AM CDT Wed Aug 28 2024 (Rest of Today) High pressure has shifted slightly east this morning, but still remains centered over eastern Alabama/Tennessee into northern Georgia and the Carolinas. Lowered afternoon dewpoints some into the lower to mid 50s (mainly near and north of the Tennessee River).
Look for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms each afternoon/evening, especially over the higher terrain. As a low pressure system, currently over Montana, lifts towards the northeast by early Thursday, a high pressure ridge begins to build and strengthen over the Intermountain West.
HOT tomorrow Discussion: We're likely right under the strongest par of the ridge across much of the southeast US, which is increasing pressure, heat, and subsidence over the area. Tomorrow will be a similar story as today as the temperatures will be fairly similar to today, but possibly a few degrees warmer in some locations. Daily Record High Maximum Temperatures Date Chattanooga Knoxville Tri-Cities Oak Ridge 08-28 100(1990) 98(1936) 94(1953) 98(1995) 08-29 100(1993) 102(1948) 96(1953) 99(1948) (Thursday night through next Wednesday) Key Messages: 1.
We may need to consider low clouds along/near the coast tonight, but as of now the moisture is inadequate with too much dry air to overcome in the lower levels. Upper level ridging and the surface thermal trough will return in force this week, with hot and dry conditions and mostly clear skies expected through the weekend. Temperatures today will be near normal for this time of year, with the exception of the coast, where the thermal trough currently resides and high temperatures will be about 5 to 10 degrees above normal.
2 inches will support scattered to numerous showers and storms each day with the highest chances over southwest Florida. Seasonal temps are also expected with highs in the low to mid 90's and overnight lows in the 70's. High pressure to the north ridges across Florida keeping a predominant easterly wind flow across the region.
/NEW/ /Through Thursday afternoon/ Another seasonably warm afternoon is in store for us as temperatures climb into the low 90s (as of 1 pm). A fairly unstable pattern will remain in place across our region with a mid-upper level low to our west and another disturbance to our south in the Gulf of Mexico. This is the area where we expect the higher coverage of rain/storms on Thursday, still fairly scattered (30-40% PoPs).
There is a 10-20% chance of an isolated pop-up shower or thunderstorm for much of the area, with the highest chances across the higher terrain of east/southeast OK and northwest AR where a few such showers and storms are beginning to bubble up. Then, it'll be another mild night tonight with lows mostly in the low to mid 70s. (Thursday through Wednesday) Upper level ridging will remain centered east of the area Thursday, with moist southerly flow continuing. These may occur anywhere, but will be favored over the higher terrain of Arkansas and southeast Oklahoma.
545 PM EDT Wed Aug 28 2024 Hot and humid high pressure will remain across the region through the rest of the work week.
(This afternoon through Thursday) High pressure aloft and at the surface through the period. A weak lee trough is noted across northeastern portions of the CWA.
Unfortunately, current temperatures are still similar to yesterday as they clock in the lower to mid 80s with dewpoints in the upper 70s. A low level ridge to our north will keep breezes easterly and gentle to moderate allowing for the continued stream of moisture in from the tropics. From synopsis, an Atlantic ridge stretching into the southeastern United States and Florida will generally remain in place through the upcoming holiday weekend with only subtle shifts in placement. A weak trough is expected to move northwestward towards the Keys over the weekend resulting in a slight uptick in southeasterly breezes and a period of unsettled weather.
301 PM MDT Wed Aug 28 2024 - Cooler on Thursday with isolated shower and thunderstorm activity over the southern Mountains, low chance across the far southeast Plains. an upper low will slowly track eastward across southern Canada through Thursday afternoon, while flat upper riding continues across the Desert Southwest. At the surface, a cold front will push south from the system passing by to the north late tonight into Thursday morning. With the passage of the cold front, afternoon highs will be around 10 degrees cooler across the Plains, with mostly 70s to 80s for highs. Mozley Upper trough will continue to shift south/southeast across the region Thursday night, however, dry advection will be the trend during that time frame.
High temperatures will likely reach the 80s across the lowlands by the weekend.
617 PM CDT Wed Aug 28 2024 (This evening through Thursday) A weakening upper low that is currently over southwest portions of the forecast area, will result in widely scattered showers and a few thunderstorms this afternoon and early evening. Temperatures will be a little warmer tomorrow, with highs ranging from the lower 90s along the I-10 corridor, to the upper 90s across the Big Country.
Tupelo's 9PM temperature was running 7 degrees warmer than 24 hours ago. Temperatures will be a little warmer, particularly over north MS.
655 PM EDT Wed Aug 28 2024 -Lingering clouds and cooler temperatures this morning have acted to limit shower and storm coverage this afternoon.
The region remains with light return flow persist on the far eastern periphery of the upper low in central to eastern TX.
633 PM CDT Wed Aug 28 2024 (This evening through Thursday night) On the large-scale, a seasonably potent upper-level trough is located in the vicinity of the Montana/Saskatchewan/Alberta area. Meanwhile, satellite water vapor imagery shows a weak upper-level trough over Arizona/New Mexico. the subtle weak trough in the Southwestern US will track northeastward through the afternoon with a cold front surging in from the north. Thunderstorms may start in the mid-afternoon well ahead of the cold front, but the primary activity will be in the late afternoon through the nighttime hours with the frontal passage. The cold front should move through the Panhandles by the end of Thursday night but showers and possibly a thunderstorm or two may linger.
In between these lows, there is a cold front extending from north to south. Strong to severe storms are expected along this boundary (and the low level jet) by late this evening into the overnight hours. In the 10 pm to 1 am time frame, the low level jet kicks up to the 50 to 60 knot range. The high precipitable water values are also a concern, but the storms do look to be progressive.
Overnight lows will be in the low to mid 70s and muggy.
957 PM EDT Wed Aug 28 2024 Hot and humid high pressure will remain across the region through the rest of the work week.
227 PM PDT Wed Aug 28 2024 Thursday morning will be cool with patchy frost across the northeast Washington and Idaho Panhandle valleys and the higher elevations of the Washington Palouse.
538 PM MDT Wed Aug 28 2024 - Cooler on Thursday with isolated shower and thunderstorm activity over the southern Mountains, low chance across the far southeast Plains. an upper low will slowly track eastward across southern Canada through Thursday afternoon, while flat upper riding continues across the Desert Southwest. At the surface, a cold front will push south from the system passing by to the north late tonight into Thursday morning. With the passage of the cold front, afternoon highs will be around 10 degrees cooler across the Plains, with mostly 70s to 80s for highs. Mozley Upper trough will continue to shift south/southeast across the region Thursday night, however, dry advection will be the trend during that time frame.
(Rest of tonight) An upper ridge remains anchored aloft while high pressure off the Atlantic Coast continues to bring warmer temperatures and increasing moisture north from the Gulf region. Warming H85 temps will help keep lows a little warmer than last night, but clear skies and light winds will allow for decent radiational cooling. Continued to go a few degrees cooler than guidance for lows tonight, dropping to the upper 60s/lower 70s.
601 PM MDT Wed Aug 28 2024 - Storms are likely over portions of the area on Thursday, mainly in northwest Kansas with a cold front.
/NEW/ /Through Thursday/ Before its dissolution, the aging upper low over the Hill Country spurred another round of daytime showers and storms from Central Texas into the Big Country. This feature will soon be unseated by a new area of low pressure deepening in the northwestern Gulf. This coastal trough has already resulted in considerable convective activity, and its onshore surge of rich moisture is responsible for the cluster of storms that initiated over Deep East Texas early in the afternoon. ridge.
721 PM EDT Wed Aug 28 2024 Hot and humid high pressure will remain across the region through the rest of the work week.
200 AM CDT Thu Aug 29 2024 - Storms late afternoon through evening tonight - Cooler highs Friday - Relatively mild and quiet weather over weekend A cold front will move across west central Kansas this afternoon. Storms will then spread southeast as the cold front front moves across the FA this evening. The net result is cooler lows with values in the upper 50s to mid 60s. Friday will feature very pleasant temperatures with highs in the lower 80s. A dry high pressure center will prevail over the state. The winds shouldn't be that strong as the high pressure center is fairly weak with a weaker MSLP gradient expected across the state.
Look for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms each afternoon and evening, especially over the higher terrain. As a low pressure system, currently over Montana, lifts towards the northeast by early Thursday, a high pressure ridge begins to build and strengthen over the Intermountain West. Light westerly flow turns more northwesterly to northeasterly for Thursday into Friday in response to the building high pressure.
- Hot and humid conditions continue through today with highs in the lower to middle 90s, with heat index values approaching upper 90s to around 100.
Another hot day is anticipated across the midstate today as an upper level ridge remains centered overhead, with highs ranging from the mid 90s on the Plateau to upper 90s and low 100s elsewhere. Dewpoints will also be on the increase today, especially over our south and east, as the upper ridge weakens somewhat. Today looks to be our last day with widespread 100s as the H5 ridge really begins weakening over the weekend while shifting to our south. Pops will remain on the lower side for Friday as the upper ridge still maintains dominance, with highest rain chances still over our south.
- A stronger cold front moves through on Thursday bringing the potential for additional showers and thunderstorms throughout the day. The main threats will be hail to golf ball size, 70 mph and very isolated tornadoes near and just ahead of the cold front. Storms will likely linger through about 10 pm before cooler and drier air filters in behind.
Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms through the weekend, especially over the higher terrain, becoming drier through the coming week. High pressure builds across the Great Basin and starts to push to the east on Friday. The high tries to establish itself across Utah and Colorado, sinking southward towards the Four Corners over the weekend. However, a strong trough starts to push in from the west and this forces the high to elongate in a southwest to northeast fashion by late in the weekend, and eventually the high loses out to the deepening trough/low moving into northern California.
1255 AM CDT Thu Aug 29 2024 The region remains with light return flow persist on the far eastern periphery of the upper low in central to eastern TX.
Cooler weather is predicted in the wake of the front starting Friday and continuing for several days.
/Issued 110 AM CDT Thu Aug 29 2024/ /Thursday and Friday/ Unsettled weather will continue through Friday as a coastal trough remains situated near the Upper Texas Coast. A similar set up is expected on Friday with the trough remaining near the Texas Coast, bringing additional chances for showers and thunderstorms mainly to eastern portions of the forecast area. A weak cold front will slowly move southward towards the region throughout the day and will serve as a focus for additional shower and thunderstorm development, especially across western North and Central Texas.
1046 PM MDT Wed Aug 28 2024 - Storms are likely over portions of the area on Thursday, mainly in northwest Kansas with a cold front. Cold front will be moving into northeast Colorado around 12z and McCook- Goodland by around 18z, which is slightly slower than previous model runs. Upper ridge builds over the area from the west on Friday and strengthens through the weekend.