Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
133 PM EDT Sat Jun 14 2025 High pressure will remain over the area through the weekend while weak low pressure tracks off the Mid-Atlantic coast passing well south of our region.
A deep but weakening area of low pressure is rotating east over the Lower OH Valley this afternoon. Numerous showers and a few thunderstorms have developed this afternoon as the humid low-level airmass destabilizes slightly beneath the area of low pressure. Upper sky cover should mostly clear tonight, leaving us with weak low pressure in the region and light winds. Showers may be a bit more scattered in nature with weak low pressure now just off to the east. Though we start the day with low stratus, a few more breaks of sun should allow temps to warm a few degrees warmer than today in most spots. Look for afternoon highs in the low/mid 80s.
(Tonight through Sunday Night) Weak troughing aloft will keep us in a somewhat unsettled pattern through the weekend with a fairly typical diurnal ebb and flow to convective activity. However, with PW running 110-120% of normal, the extra moisture in the air will inhibit radiational cooling causing overnight lows to remain warmer than normal, only dropping into the mid 70s most locations, with upper 70s or even lower 80s along the immediate SE LA coast.
131 PM EDT Sat Jun 14 2025 - Dry weekend - Increasing humidity and midweek convection - Dry weekend Recent radar imagery shows the last of the light rain south of I-96 continues to whither away as low pressure over Indiana moves east. IR loop shows abundant mid clouds across the region due to a combination of the low to the south and minor short waves to the north moving quickly in the quasi zonal flow over the UP. High pressure over Ontario will continue to produce an easterly flow and (for the most part) lower humidity values; dewpoints mainly in the 50s are expected today and Sunday. Highs today will reach the mid 70s and tomorrow the lower 80s.
Discussion: Upper trough over the mid-Mississippi valley continues to move slowly east northeast. Waves rotating around the low will continue to focus convection. For Tonight, widesly scattered to scattered shower activity will continue as upper trough approaches. For Sunday, upper trough axis will be over the area. Trough is weakening but will continue to produce areas of scattered convection.
A westward propagating outflow boundary currently moving into the Highway 77 corridor has helped gin up some convection early this afternoon. A mid-level ridge has pushed over TX from the western US leaving our area under northwesterly flow tonight.
526 PM MDT Sat Jun 14 2025 - Continued warming into Sunday afternoon, turning cooler for the first half of the upcoming week.
With a broad area of low pressure continuing to meander across the Deep South tonight and meager (but sufficient) instability, low to medium (20-50%) chances for general showers and thunderstorms will remain in the forecast overnight. The initial area of low pressure that has brought us several days of storms will begin to pivot to the east on Sunday. Still, medium chances (40-60%) seem plausible in the afternoon with several lingering outflow boundaries and the low in the general area -- with this activity again favoring the afternoon and evening.
551 PM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025 (This evening through Sunday Night) CONUS wide water vapor satellite imagery and 500 MB RAP analysis shows a distinct ridge over SW CONUS and another ridge centered over Florida. Between the ridges lies an elongated trough axis that extends from the Midwest down to southern coastal Texas. The trough axis isn't as defined over our area as it is over the Midwest. But nonetheless, troughing does exist over SE Texas and we have certainly seen the impacts of that today via heavy showers and thunderstorms.
VFR through the remainder of the weekend as high pressure centered over the northern great lakes maintains influence across the region. * None Upper level ridge centered (aoa 593 DAM at 500 MB) over southern New Mexico extending north-northeast into the northern Plains. Max temps right around 80 degrees tomorrow for most areas, except cooler by Lake Huron/Saginaw Bay/Lake Erie with the easterly flow. The top of the ridge axis looks to be flattening as some Pacific upper level energy tracks through the Pacific Northwest/northern Rockies.
Warmer and more humid conditions return for mid to late week with increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms as a low pressure system crosses the region. Minor adjustments to the forecast late this pm with high pressure building in from southeast Canada with the visible satellite imagery showing the back of the cloud edge as far south as the Mohawk Valley and the Lake George Region. We added some patchy fog for the areas that are clearer and kept mostly cloudy skies south and east with low temps in the 50 and some upper 40s over the higher terrain. High pressure will build across the region from the north tonight and through the day Sunday with west-northwesterly zonal flow continuing aloft.
Temperatures trend a few degrees warmer, with valley highs in the 80s to around 90F.
622 PM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025 Rain across the area this afternoon had a strong impact on the high temperatures, dropping them by as much as 10 degrees. /Schlotz/ (Tonight through Sunday Night) Weak troughing aloft will keep us in a somewhat unsettled pattern through the weekend with a fairly typical diurnal ebb and flow to convective activity. However, with PW running 110-120% of normal, the extra moisture in the air will inhibit radiational cooling causing overnight lows to remain warmer than normal, only dropping into the mid 70s most locations, with upper 70s or even lower 80s along the immediate SE LA coast.
Upper-level ridging remains across the state this afternoon while the Atlantic ridge axis extends across the central part of the peninsula.
Across inland areas, the highest gusts for TAF sites are expected around 20 kt. Sunday afternoon's highs will be slightly warmer with more east side valleys seeing highs near 80 degrees.
534 PM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025 Rain across the area this afternoon had a strong impact on the high temperatures, dropping them by as much as 10 degrees. /Schlotz/ (Tonight through Sunday Night) Weak troughing aloft will keep us in a somewhat unsettled pattern through the weekend with a fairly typical diurnal ebb and flow to convective activity. However, with PW running 110-120% of normal, the extra moisture in the air will inhibit radiational cooling causing overnight lows to remain warmer than normal, only dropping into the mid 70s most locations, with upper 70s or even lower 80s along the immediate SE LA coast.
Warmer and more humid conditions return for mid to late week with increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms as a low pressure system crosses the region. Minor adjustments to the forecast this evening with high pressure building in from southeast Canada with the GOES IR/Night fog satellite imagery showing the back of the cloud edge as far south as the Mohawk Valley and the Saratoga Region. Lake George Region) for the areas that are clearer and kept mostly cloudy skies south and east with low temps in the 50 and some upper 40s over the higher terrain. High pressure will build across the region from the north tonight and through the day Sunday with west-northwesterly zonal flow continuing aloft.
634 PM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025 Synoptic Overview: South Texas will remain sandwiched between two H5 ridges, one positioned over the Atlantic and the other over the SW US through most of the forecast period. Given the S-SE component of the low-lvl winds would expect that low-lvl convergence will be maximized over northern portions of the coastal bend so consequently. Light flow aloft and unimpressive shear profiles should preclude the development of organized storms, although wet microbursts always remain a possibility with CAPE values this high. However, the scattered storm coverage and a moderate southerly component of the low-lvl flow should keep any hydro threat localized.
1014 PM EDT Sat Jun 14 2025 We will continue to be under the influence of a slow-moving low pressure system over the OH Valley. Discussion: Upper trough over the mid-Mississippi valley continues to move slowly east northeast. Waves rotating around the low will continue to focus convection. For Tonight, widesly scattered to scattered shower activity will continue as upper trough approaches. For Sunday, upper trough axis will be over the area. Trough is weakening but will continue to produce areas of scattered convection.
Sunday afternoon's highs will be slightly warmer with more east side valleys seeing highs near 80 degrees.
748 PM EDT Sat Jun 14 2025 (Rest of today through Sunday) Ensemble solutions and sfc analyses depict a rather typical summer pattern prevailing during the short term with a sprawling ridge firmly in control of the west Atlantic and the Florida peninsula. Aloft, models also keep high pressure in place over the region for the next several days. This is mainly due to the prevailing synoptic flow, driven by SE winds associated with the aforementioned high pressure ridge dominating the west Atlantic. Tonight's temperatures are expected to remain in the low-mid 70s inland to near 80 around coastal locations. For Sunday, afternoon highs should be in the upper 80s to low 90s, warmer inland.
1025 PM MDT Sat Jun 14 2025 - Continued warming into Sunday afternoon, turning cooler for the first half of the upcoming week.
1252 AM PDT Sun Jun 15 2025 * A trough moving through the area on Monday will lead to periods of gusty winds, resulting in areas of local critical fire weather conditions.
Mid-level lapse rates of only 5 C/km or less, weak winds, and high freezing levels will all limit potential for severe storms.
Southwesterly flow continues through the weekend into Monday as the area sits between Bermuda high pressure to the east and troughing to the west. This southwesterly flow contributes to the higher than normal PWATs for the area and thus leading to enough moisture to support afternoon/evening diurnally driven convection. The main setup for today looks to be more scattered in nature as the troughing to our north begins to absorb into the overall flow.
108 AM EDT Sun Jun 15 2025 We will continue to be under the influence of a slow-moving low pressure system over the OH Valley. Discussion: Upper trough over the mid-Mississippi valley continues to move slowly east northeast. Waves rotating around the low will continue to focus convection. For Tonight, widely scattered to scattered shower activity will continue as upper trough approaches. For Sunday, upper trough axis will be over the area. Trough is weakening but will continue to produce areas of scattered convection.
However, the strong ridging to our north that has caused the widespread showers along the west coast of Florida each evening and overnight hours will continue for the next 7 days. This is because the ridge is giving us a southeasterly flow causing storms to form each day inland before drifting to the west coast of Florida into the evening and overnight hours.
1152 PM EDT Sat Jun 14 2025 - Dry and trending warmer Sunday into Monday.
202 AM MDT Sun Jun 15 2025 - Continued warm this afternoon, turning cooler for the first half of the upcoming week.
Across inland areas, the highest gusts for TAF sites are expected around 20 kt.
High pressure will build over the Desert Southwest through the weekend with temperatures peaking on Sunday at 8 to 12 degrees above seasonal normals. Meanwhile, a dry southwesterly flow aloft continues as the region remains sandwiched between a trough over the eastern Pacific and the aforementioned ridge of high pressure. On Monday, the eastern Pacific trough will begin to move east as the ridge becomes suppressed to the south.
1142 PM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025 (Tonight through Sunday Night) Weak troughing aloft will keep us in a somewhat unsettled pattern through the weekend with a fairly typical diurnal ebb and flow to convective activity. However, with PW running 110-120% of normal, the extra moisture in the air will inhibit radiational cooling causing overnight lows to remain warmer than normal, only dropping into the mid 70s most locations, with upper 70s or even lower 80s along the immediate SE LA coast.
An upper level trough remains circulating in the NE Pacific off the coast of British Columbia, keeping weak high pressure in place off the coast of central California. Winds ease today as the trough digs into the Pacific Northwest. Some high-resolution models are showing light reflectivity returns, but precipitation chances still remain low as the lower levels remain dry. High pressure builds back in Monday, returning the warming trend to the interior.
The Atlantic high pressure extends into the mid-levels of the atmosphere which will combine with a drier atmosphere to reinforce lower convective coverage.
11 (Tonight through Monday night) The ongoing unstable pattern persists, with an upper-level trough situated over the central Gulf Coast. At the surface, high pressure in the Atlantic extends ridging across the Gulf, continuing to push a warm, moist air mass into the region. Tonight and into Sunday, the upper-level trough will shift southward and deepen; however, its influence on our area will be minimal.
Early in the period we remain sandwiched between two mid-level ridges with surface ridging over the Gulf.
An area of high pressure will continue to bring hot and dry conditions across the State.
Quiet close to the weekend with stable conditions in place from high pressure tracking across the region. The onshore flow will keep lakeshore locations a few degrees cooler. At the same time, weak mid-level troughing develops across the mid Mississippi River Valley and east of the broader trough. The main downstream consequence locally for Monday will be warm, moist advection and will help increase daytime highs into the low to mid 80s with continued dry conditions.
Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG The lower clouds will remain in place over eastern SD, resulting in an IFR forecast to start the period off at MBG/ABR/ATY.
A weak low pressure center is migrating along the frontal boundary and is currently over far SW Ohio. The frontal boundary will push slowly south Sunday into Sunday night as the mid level trough axis shifts slowly east across the upper Ohio Valley. As we slightly destabilize again through the day, expect scattered showers and embedded thunderstorms to become more widespread Sunday afternoon into early Sunday evening, with the highest pops across our southeast. The pcpn should then dissipate through Sunday night as we lose the instability and the trough axis moves off to our east. At the surface, Tds remain in the upper 60s/low 70s with daytime high temps reaching the low/mid 80s, so we remain in "the air is soup" mode.
VFR through the remainder of the weekend as high pressure centered over the northern great lakes maintains influence across the region. * None Upper level ridge centered (aoa 593 DAM at 500 MB) over southern New Mexico extending north-northeast into the northern Plains. Max temps right around 80 degrees tomorrow for most areas, except cooler by Lake Huron/Saginaw Bay/Lake Erie with the easterly flow. The top of the ridge axis looks to be flattening as some Pacific upper level energy tracks through the Pacific Northwest/northern Rockies. Active warm front over Western Great Lakes Sunday night into Monday, and its possible some elevated showers survive the trip on Monday, but mainly just slight chance pop worthy around around Saginaw Bay.
A surface through lower level Atlantic ridge stretches westward across the Florida Peninsula. This ridge continues the days long stretch of moderate east to southeasterly breezes, with nightly freshening and daily slackening. Deep layered ridging also remains in place with through the mid and upper levels. Atlantic surface through lower level ridging will remain through much of the week and continue the long stretch of moderate east to southeasterlies. This will hinge on a cut off upper level low being able to retrograde westward through the Bahamas and into South Florida. Should this occur, it is often accompanied by at least weak lower to mid level troughing, and increased lower level moisture and confluence. Uncertainty is quite high as some guidance suggests this low gets scooped up by a passing mid latitude trough before it can reach the Bahamas.
(Today through Monday) Key messages: - Low chances of rain each day, a few strong storms and locally heavy rains possible today - Seasonable temperatures with elevated heat index values Subtropical ridging centered over New Mexico into northern Mexico and troughing off the Texas coast overlay a moist south to southeasterly lower level flow off the Gulf of America. Slightly stronger Subtropical ridging and associated subsidence on Monday will keep low chances of showers and thunderstorms closer to the Coastal Plains.
(Today and tonight) Upper-level ridging will remain the dominant feature across the area through the next 24 hours and beyond, and will help to keep drier conditions and continue the upward trend in temperatures. High temperatures for today will reach into the mid to upper 90s, with overnight lows expected in the low to mid 70s.
The consensus of the high resolution guidance indicates that this cluster of thunderstorms will make it into North Texas around sunrise, although in a weakened state as instability will be at a diurnal minimum. Stronger mid level ridging will begin to push eastward during the day Monday with isolated convective activity expected mainly across our far eastern counties.
348 AM EDT Sun Jun 15 2025 High pressure will remain over the area today while weak low pressure tracks off the Mid-Atlantic coast passing well south of our region.
The high over Ontario the past several days will move east Monday, resulting in higher heights and warmer temperatures; highs in the mid 80s.
Temperatures will again be a bit below normal with highs in the lower to mid 70s. Mondays highs will be comfortable ranging in the low to mid 70s in the afternoon with lows in the upper 50s to low 60s.
625 AM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025 The forecast area remains situated between a ridge building into the Desert Southwest and the subtropical ridge just to our east. At the surface, weak southerly flow persists across much of the region, with a boundary draping from the Ohio Valley west-southwestward through the Lower Mississippi Valley. We'll maintain mostly clear skies through the remainder of the predawn hours, with lows in the lower 70s.
Deep low pressure is located off the coast of British Columbia near 53N and 136W. It'll also be a little warmer compared to yesterday. It'll be cooler at the coast and in the mountains above 5000 feet with highs of 60-70F. An upper trough offshore will swing onshore on Monday with maxTs trending downward slightly compared to today. Air mass remains pretty dry in the low-levels, so it might be difficult to get much rain to the surface, but most of the hi-res is showing some simulated radar returns at peak heating.
It will be a very hot Father's Day with highs across the lower deserts in the 110 to 113 range but remaining a few degrees below June 15th and Father's Day record highs. Monday: Remaining hot with afternoon breezes kicking in due to approaching upper level trof that will be moving into California.
Somewhat active weather will continue with ridging over the Southern Rocky Mountains to our west combined with inverted troughing overhead setting up a mini-northwest flow pattern through the weekend into the early workweek. /16/ (Monday Night through Sunday) Long-range guidance continues to suggest the aforementioned trough axis trapped behind Atlantic ridging to gradually weaken after the middle of this week before finally being displaced by ridging to the west.
Upper level analysis places trough off the west coast with rather flat ridge centered over the northern plains. A modest short wave pushing through the ridge continues to bring convection to northeast Montana, while an increasing low level jet has been increasing coverage of convection over South Dakota, which is starting to nudge across the state line into southwest/south central North Dakota. For today, initial concern will be aforementioned storms that area trying to lift into southern portions of our area thanks to the low level jet. With that said, still expecting the more widespread convection to initiate over the higher terrain of Montana and push into the area later tonight, and slide through overnight in more of a clustered storm mode with strong winds being the main concern, especially if we were to get an MCS to develop.
418 AM MDT Sun Jun 15 2025 - Continued warm this afternoon, turning cooler for the first half of the upcoming week.
544 AM EDT Sun Jun 15 2025 A bit of a foggy start to the day will give way to mostly sunny conditions and some warmer temperatures. Temperatures creep up a few more degrees Monday, with readings cooler near the coast where winds will be off the waters. The warm up will continue through midweek until a cold front approaches from the west. This will scatter out after sunrise and lead to a mostly clear day with warmer temps than yesterday. isolated showers will be possible in the higher terrain Mon but otherwise it will be a dry day. Temps will also be a little bit warmer as well.
540 AM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025 (Today through Monday) Key messages: - Low chances of rain each day, a few strong storms and locally heavy rains possible today - Seasonable temperatures with elevated heat index values Subtropical ridging centered over New Mexico into northern Mexico and troughing off the Texas coast overlay a moist south to southeasterly lower level flow off the Gulf of America. Slightly stronger Subtropical ridging and associated subsidence on Monday will keep low chances of showers and thunderstorms closer to the Coastal Plains.
404 AM MDT Sun Jun 15 2025 -Daily chances for thunderstorms, some possibly severe, through Monday -Wet and cooler mid-week -Mostly dry and much warmer weather for the second half of the week Upper air analysis continues to show a stalled upper low off the Pac NW/Canadian coast, with active WSW flow across the western CONUS. Weak ridging sits across the northern Plains. As the wave crosses ND late tonight, a cold front will cross the CWA on Monday.
With PWs up to around 2 inches, some locally heavy rainfall will be possible again this afternoon/evening, with the best chance for this and the highest pops across our southeast. Slightly warmer daytime highs in the lower to mid 80s. On Monday evening, an upper trough will be located in the middle Mississippi Valley region, with a regime of warm and moist air ahead of this trough -- extending into the Ohio Valley and the ILN forecast area.
(Today and tonight) No significant change to the forecast, with persistence carrying through at least today into early Monday before a subtle pattern change takes shape in the form of a slightly deepening trough approaching from the west Monday afternoon.
High pressure brings VFR conditions through the TAF period. * None Quiet close to the weekend with stable conditions in place from high pressure tracking across the region. The onshore flow will keep lakeshore locations a few degrees cooler. At the same time, weak mid-level troughing develops across the mid Mississippi River Valley and east of the broader trough. The main downstream consequence locally for Monday will be warm, moist advection and will help increase daytime highs into the low to mid 80s with continued dry conditions.
WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO Temperatures at 1 PM were running mostly 5 to 10 degrees warmer than 1 PM yesterday across the area. Widespread moderate HeatRisk is impacting the inland valleys, mountain foothills, and High Desert today, with moderate to locally major HeatRisk in the low desert. The ridge of high pressure over us today will begin to flatten Monday as an upper level trough moves inland across the West Coast.