Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
(Today through Tuesday night) Upper trough that brought a cooldown to the area will linger over the area today and into Tuesday morning. This will keep the highs on the mild side for late July. The cooler air the west is likely due to better chances of cloud cover and shower potential. As we move into Tuesday the upper trough will start to pull away and high pressure over the Four Corners region will start to strengthen. Warmer air will move in from the west and that will allow for highs to be in the mid 80s to lower 90s.
1222 AM EDT Mon Jul 22 2024 Canadian high pressure will build over the area overnight into Monday.
(Today and tonight) A broad upper trough extends from the Midwest southwest into Texas. As of 245 AM, scattered showers across West Texas were overspreading western parts of our area early this morning, and associated with a possible disturbance aloft moving into the base of the trough over the area. Temperatures will be cooler today, but a bit tricky to pin down and will depend on extent of convective activity and cloud cover.
(Today through Tuesday Night) An upper level high pressure is over the western U. with an upper trough over the eastern two thirds of the country. Highs today will be in the lower 80s to lower 90s and in the lower to mid 80s Tuesday. Lows tonight will be in the lower 60s to lower 70s and in the mid 60s to lower 70s Tuesday night.
A broad upper level trough remains in place across the FA to start off the week providing forcing for ascent for daily isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms.
Another short wave trough was analyzed upstream diving south into the Texas Panhandle. As the trough axis passes overhead this afternoon, we will transition to subsidence moving over the area. Low level theta-e values will decrease through the day with the higher theta-e air limited to eastern New Mexico. Clouds will clear this evening in the wake of the short wave trough leading to a cool night.
High pressure located over southern Nevada will continue to drive the storms, with mid-level northerly flow. Storms should initially develop along the higher terrain along the Mogollon Rim, then gradually push southward off the terrain as outflows develop. Additional more isolated activity is expected to develop over the higher terrain along Black Mesa and the Chuska Mountains, which may then move into portions of the Little Colorado River later this afternoon and evening.
1233 AM CDT Mon Jul 22 2024 Continuing to deal with scattered convection late this evening across two locations, the first being near the Lower Toledo Bend Country of Deep East Texas into West Central Louisiana as well as near the I-20 Corridor of Northeast Texas. This seems plausible as the upper trough axis is located to our northwest and the corridor is embedded in an area of near 2 inch pwat. 13 (This evening through Monday Night) Unsettled weather will continue over the short-term, as deep upper-level troughing really gains its footing today.
1126 PM CDT Sun Jul 21 2024 - An extended stretch of cooler-than-average temperatures will continue today before increasing through the week. - Scattered showers are possible today and Monday before drier weather builds in alongside the warmer temps. Short Term (Today and Tomorrow) The upper level pattern continues to encompass a closed low over northern Quebec and a ridge over the western CONUS. Broad troughing between these two features brings northerly upper level flow to much of a the area. Highs this afternoon will approach the low 80s in most areas. Highs are once against expected in the low 80s.
Isolated thunderstorms remain possible today in association with H5 low pressure to our northeast.
On Tuesday, the trough axis to our west will sharpen. This will put our area in a stronger stream of deep moisture between the trough to our west and Bermuda high to the east. Late week through the weekend, the pattern will start to break down as the trough gets replaced by a weak ridge.
- Warmer, more seasonable weather, later this week. Scattered showers continue to crop up across northern Missouri this afternoon, supported by the passing upper short wave trough and modest instability from glimmers of day time heating. This activity will disperse with the loss of day time heating later this evening and should remain focused across north central and northeastern Missouri nearer the upper short wave trough. Into Monday, similar conditions are expected, as the parent H500 trough remains slow to exit and another short wave trough rounds the upper Midwest.
1146 PM CDT Sun Jul 21 2024 Skies are partly cloudy across the Mid-South this evening with temperatures ranging from the lower 70s to lower 80s.
144 AM EDT Mon Jul 22 2024 Weak mid level disturbances will ripple through a slow moving large scale mid level trough, keeping the threat of showers and thunderstorms in the forecast into mid week.
High pressure over the Southwestern U. Not much changes on Tuesday with the high locked in place and monsoonal moisture mainly present across the central mountains and eastern highlands. Temperatures are just a couple degrees warmer.
- Warmer temperatures return late week into the weekend. Current Conditions/Today: The cold front that moved across the region overnight has stalled over the Red River Valley down through southern MN this afternoon.
(Today through Tuesday) High pressure remains across the western Atlantic as a tropical wave approaches South Florida early this morning.
- Warmer temperatures return late week into the weekend along with chances for thunderstorms late weekend. The pattern will shift from a western ridge and eastern trough initially to a western trough and eastern ridge by this weekend. Tuesday will be cooler with highs from the mid-sixties to mid-seventies.
Although the upper low has drifted east of the state as of the 06Z Monday 7/22 upper air analysis, the rest of the upper pattern remains very similar to the last couple days with a highly amplified ridge over the western U. and broad troughing extending eastward across the rest of the CONUS. High temperatures today will be near to a few degrees warmer than yesterday and in the low to mid 80s.
However, scattered showers and storms may fester across SE OK (and into W-Central AR) for much of the night as the aforementioned boundary slowly sags south and a subtle impulse within the troughing flow aloft passes overhead.
134 AM EDT Mon Jul 22 2024 High pressure will persist across the Atlantic while weak low pressure dominates through the Deep South and southeast region. Sharp upper level ridging will persist across the western CONUS for the start of the week with larger scale troughing across eastern Canada and the eastern U. Upper level blocking ridge will persist across the western and into the central CONUS through much of the week before finally shifting eastward through the Northern Plains into the Great Lakes heading into the upcoming weekend. Downstream larger scale troughiness will, by-and-large remain intact through the eastern CONUS into the Gulf with ridging across the Atlantic through most of the period, maintaining broad southwesterly mid level flow across the southeast and preventing any significant boundaries/air mass changes in the Deep South/southeast region.
Broad troughiness with very weak mid level waves rotating through the flow will continue into Tuesday which will lead to occasional periods of isolated showers and thunderstorms. Isolated funnels and very brief landspout tornadoes during the afternoon and early evening will also be possible with fairly low LFC's and very weak flow in the low levels. As for temperatures they will remain a bit below normal, but only by a couple of degrees as temperatures slowly warm Monday into Tuesday with more widespread highs in the lower 80s.
We've seen little change to the prevailing synoptic scenario over the last 24 hours as the mean flow pattern remains somewhat blocked, highlighted by a highly amplified ridge out west and broad troughing to the east.
(Today and tonight) The proximity of the weak front in southeastern Oklahoma and the nearly static upper trough across Oklahoma will keep shower and thunderstorms chances in southeastern Oklahoma today.
930 PM PDT Sun Jul 21 2024 High pressure aloft will continue to bring hot weather in inland areas through the middle of the week with a shallow marine layer and mild conditions near the coast.
Stable onshore flow will maintain cooler and more seasonable temperatures through much of the coming week.
______________________________________________________________ Probability of thunderstorms increases significantly (above 50%) within the Hi-Res model guidance after 1pm southeast of Pittsburgh, PA as surface instability ranges between 700J/kg to 1200J/kg and warm front advances. Along with thunderstorms, higher rainfall rates will be generally focus along the ridges as PWAT values range above average (1. 5 inches or higher for the ridges) ranges between 60% to 80% through the late evening. - Precipitation chances will remain low Tuesday morning and early afternoon with ridging. Precipitation chances will likely remain low through Tuesday evening under ridging.
436 AM CDT Mon Jul 22 2024 - Another pleasant day (highs in the lower to mid 80s) with scattered showers and thunderstorms expected to spread southward across much of the area through the afternoon hours.
Heat ramps up today as the ridge builds over the Great Basin.
618 AM CDT Mon Jul 22 2024 (Today and tonight) A broad upper trough extends from the Midwest southwest into Texas. As of 245 AM, scattered showers across West Texas were overspreading western parts of our area early this morning, and associated with a possible disturbance aloft moving into the base of the trough over the area. Temperatures will be cooler today, but a bit tricky to pin down and will depend on extent of convective activity and cloud cover.
248 AM PDT Mon Jul 22 2024 High pressure aloft will continue to bring hot weather inland through the middle of the week with a shallow marine layer.
631 AM EDT Mon Jul 22 2024 Weak mid level disturbances will ripple through a slow moving large scale mid level trough, keeping the threat of showers and thunderstorms in the forecast into mid week.
The axis of the ridge over the region will slowly shift east today and Tuesday, bringing steadily warming conditions into midweek. High temperatures will be in the low to mid 90s today, increasing to mid 90s to low 100s for Tuesday. Archer The 500 mb flow pattern during this period will consist of a ridge with axis initially from Saskatchewan to the southwestern US sliding eastward to eastern North America and a trough/low moving eastward from the British Columbia coast to central Canada.
1055 AM EDT Mon Jul 22 2024 Weak mid level disturbances will ripple through a slow moving large scale mid level trough, keeping the threat of showers and thunderstorms in the forecast into mid week.
Due to the drier air across the north, the highest rain and storm chances (PoP 60-70 percent) today will be generally south of the Orlando area, with 40-50 percent across the north. Afternoon highs will be in the low to mid 90s with heat indices between 102-107 degrees. Daily shower and thunderstorm chances will continue each day, with the highest chances through Tuesday.
631 AM CDT Mon Jul 22 2024 (Today and tonight) The proximity of the weak front in southeastern Oklahoma and the nearly static upper trough across Oklahoma will keep shower and thunderstorms chances in southeastern Oklahoma today.
633 AM CDT Mon Jul 22 2024 (Today through Tuesday night) Upper trough that brought a cooldown to the area will linger over the area today and into Tuesday morning. This will keep the highs on the mild side for late July. The cooler air the west is likely due to better chances of cloud cover and shower potential. As we move into Tuesday the upper trough will start to pull away and high pressure over the Four Corners region will start to strengthen. Warmer air will move in from the west and that will allow for highs to be in the mid 80s to lower 90s.
High pressure will remain in place through midweek. Lingering moisture will allow for the development of daily showers and thunderstorms over the higher terrain, primarily focused over southern Utah.
Atlantic ridging will build back across the Florida Peninsula and into the Gulf of Mexico tonight through the rest of the week, with moderate east to southeast breezes prevailing across the Keys coastal waters.
652 AM CDT Mon Jul 22 2024 - Another pleasant day (highs in the lower to mid 80s) with scattered showers and thunderstorms expected to spread southward across much of the area through the afternoon hours.
Upper level ridge to our west continues to bring warm temperatures in the 80s and light winds today. With the ridge forecast to move eastward this week, there is a possibility this smoke could linger longer than today. Models continue to show a backdoor cold front moving into central and eastern ND this afternoon and evening.
641 AM CDT Mon Jul 22 2024 (Today through Tuesday Night) An upper level high pressure is over the western U. with an upper trough over the eastern two thirds of the country. Highs today will be in the lower 80s to lower 90s and in the lower to mid 80s Tuesday. Lows tonight will be in the lower 60s to lower 70s and in the mid 60s to lower 70s Tuesday night.
It appears that the Coastal Plain and the far NW part of the region will have the higher chance of showers/storms this afternoon and evening. Specifically, areas from Rocky Mount north and east should have the higher threat of strong to locally severe convection. Isolated flash flooding will also be possible, especially in the NE where the highest PW and dew points (2.
(Today and tonight) A broad upper trough extends from the Midwest southwest into Texas. As of 245 AM, scattered showers across West Texas were overspreading western parts of our area early this morning, and associated with a possible disturbance aloft moving into the base of the trough over the area. Temperatures will be cooler today, but a bit tricky to pin down and will depend on extent of convective activity and cloud cover. (Tuesday night through next Monday) The prevailing high pressure across the southwestern US will shift east a bit and the trough across the eastern US will do the same.
This unsettled pattern will continue with a near repeat performance on Tuesday as the primary trough axis settles overhead.
Ridging starts building in Tuesday evening suppressing any lingering convection from the morning.
1248 PM CDT Mon Jul 22 2024 (Today and tonight) A broad upper trough extends from the Midwest southwest into Texas. As of 245 AM, scattered showers across West Texas were overspreading western parts of our area early this morning, and associated with a possible disturbance aloft moving into the base of the trough over the area. Temperatures will be cooler today, but a bit tricky to pin down and will depend on extent of convective activity and cloud cover.
By mid-week, the current synoptic pattern with high pressure over the Great Basin region will shift eastward and expand. Heading towards the weekend, a low pressure system will swing down across the Great Basin region, ultimately pushing/weakening the upper-level ridge.
Portions of Yavapai County have been placed under a marginal risk for severe storms today, which aligns nicely with model guidance suggesting better ingredients for stronger storm development in the highlighted area. High pressure located over southern Nevada will continue to drive the storms, with mid-level northerly flow. Storms should initially develop along the higher terrain along the Mogollon Rim, then gradually push southward off the terrain as outflows develop. Additional more isolated activity is expected to develop over the higher terrain along Black Mesa and the Chuska Mountains, which may then move into portions of the Little Colorado River later this afternoon and evening.
140 PM MDT Mon Jul 22 2024 - The axis of persistent high pressure in the Great Basin begins to shift northeast and places Wyoming within the region of hot temperatures by midweek.
1236 PM CDT Mon Jul 22 2024 (Today through Tuesday night) Upper trough that brought a cooldown to the area will linger over the area today and into Tuesday morning. This will keep the highs on the mild side for late July. The cooler air the west is likely due to better chances of cloud cover and shower potential. As we move into Tuesday the upper trough will start to pull away and high pressure over the Four Corners region will start to strengthen. Warmer air will move in from the west and that will allow for highs to be in the mid 80s to lower 90s.
(Rest of Today) Low stratus clouds persist across the TN Valley this morning, with a few light showers also noted within a moist deep-layer SW flow regime to the east of a longwave trough axis extending across much of central North America. At the surface, a broad trough/wind convergence axis is currently noted to the northwest of the local forecast area, with most of 0Z CAMs suggesting that convection will initiate in the vicinity of this feature between 16-18Z and spread east-northeastward into northern AL/southern TN later this afternoon. Based on expectations that the low stratus cloud deck will begin to lift/scatter within the next couple of hours, temperatures should have sufficient time to reach forecasted highs in the mid 80s-lower 90s.
358 PM EDT Mon Jul 22 2024 Weak mid level disturbances will ripple through a slow moving large scale mid level trough, keeping the threat of showers and thunderstorms in the forecast into mid week.
937 AM PDT Mon Jul 22 2024 High pressure aloft will continue to bring hot weather inland through the middle of the week with a shallow marine layer.
A sprawling ridge across the Atlantic will maintain east to southeast winds Tuesday and beyond. Atlantic ridging will build back across the Florida Peninsula and into the Gulf of Mexico Tuesday through the rest of the week, with moderate east to southeast breezes prevailing across the Keys coastal waters.
The pattern will remain stagnant with the upper level trough west of the region and a very moist air mass over the SE US. 5 inch range and with short waves expected to rotate through the base of the trough scattered to likely showers and thunderstorms will continue mainly in the afternoon and evening hours. Afternoon high temperatures will be in the low 90s each day with heat index values generally between 100 and 105.
1233 PM CDT Mon Jul 22 2024 (Today and tonight) The proximity of the weak front in southeastern Oklahoma and the nearly static upper trough across Oklahoma will keep shower and thunderstorms chances in southeastern Oklahoma today.
These clouds and showers will occur in response to plentiful low level moisture and a low pressure center in the area. High temperatures in these areas will generally be in the low to mid 80s.
1258 PM CDT Mon Jul 22 2024 (Rest of Today) Low stratus clouds persist across the TN Valley this morning, with a few light showers also noted within a moist deep-layer SW flow regime to the east of a longwave trough axis extending across much of central North America. At the surface, a broad trough/wind convergence axis is currently noted to the northwest of the local forecast area, with most of 0Z CAMs suggesting that convection will initiate in the vicinity of this feature between 16-18Z and spread east-northeastward into northern AL/southern TN later this afternoon. Based on expectations that the low stratus cloud deck will begin to lift/scatter within the next couple of hours, temperatures should have sufficient time to reach forecasted highs in the mid 80s-lower 90s.
The primary features dictating PoPs and subsequently temperatures in the short term remain the lingering mid-level troughing held up over the central CONUS which is aiding lift and surface convergence along the northern Gulf Coast.
(This evening through Tuesday) Water vapor imagery this afternoon showed an upper-level trough over the eastern US and a ridge centered over the Gulf of California. The forecast area remains under northwest flow aloft in the short term as the base of the trough sits just to our east. 1000-500mb thicknesses increase tomorrow, implying warmer but still below average high temperatures given the recent rainfall.
Both heavy rainfall and high wind potential from the 12Z HREF is on the low side today, though an isolated strong wind gust or localized flash flooding event can't be ruled out. Then over the following couple days, the upper ridge should amplify a bit and bring high temperatures up a few degrees across the region. With the high moving overhead and a nudge downward in atmospheric moisture, the severe thunderstorm potential may come down a notch by this weekend (though under strong surface heating chances for convection remain each day). Isolated -TSRA will initiate over the higher terrain, but will likely struggle to move into the lower deserts.
144 PM EDT Mon Jul 22 2024 Ridging remains in place aloft over the region through much of the week even as a TUTT makes its way westward and south of the area late this week into the weekend. At the surface, the Atlantic ridge axis will remain north of the local area, keeping a low-level southeast wind flow through the forecast period.
340 PM EDT Mon Jul 22 2024 High pressure will persist across the Atlantic while weak low pressure lingers across the southeast.
- Drier weather builds in alongside the warmer temps for the remainder of 7-day forecast.
(Rest of today through Tuesday) The northern extent of a tropical wave and a mid-level area of low pressure approach the region from the Bahamas over the next couple of days. The additional cloud cover from the convection could help keep temperatures a few degrees cooler this afternoon compared to previous days but a warmer trend will commence with most areas reaching the lower 90s again on Tuesday save for the Atlantic coast.
Most of the high resolution models have a few isolated showers possible in the afternoon for the Permian Basin with more lingering showers/storms for I-10 and points south.
The pattern of a mid-level trough will remain in place through much or all of this week, but does start to break down some later in the week. Some light fog is possible early tomorrow morning, with the highest possibilities at KBBG.
116 PM CDT Mon Jul 22 2024 (Today and tonight) A broad upper trough extends from the Midwest southwest into Texas. As of 245 AM, scattered showers across West Texas were overspreading western parts of our area early this morning, and associated with a possible disturbance aloft moving into the base of the trough over the area. Temperatures will be cooler today, but a bit tricky to pin down and will depend on extent of convective activity and cloud cover.
202 PM EDT Mon Jul 22 2024 Weak mid level disturbances will ripple through a slow moving large scale mid level trough, keeping the threat of showers and thunderstorms in the forecast into mid week.
1240 PM CDT Mon Jul 22 2024 - Another pleasant day (highs in the lower to mid 80s) with scattered showers and thunderstorms expected to spread southward across much of the area through the afternoon hours.
The basic mid/upper-level pattern will continue to feature mean ridging over the western CONUS, and broad but mostly weak cyclonic flow around a trough extending from the Upper Great Lakes southwestward over south TX, and a ridge over the western Atlantic. We are caught between the trough to our west and ridge to our east, with deep moist southerly flow in between.
243 PM EDT Mon Jul 22 2024 (This afternoon through Tuesday) A broad area of upper-level troughing encompasses the eastern half or so of the CONUS, with north and central GA beneath southwesterly flow. No significant pattern change will take place tomorrow (Tuesday) with continued upper-level troughing as well as similar moisture and instability parameters to today (although maybe slightly greater PWAT and an even more saturated atmospheric column tomorrow).
The axis of a broad trough extends from the Great Lakes to the southern Plains, while a high amplitude ridge continues over the west.