Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
The upper low moving down from the Upper Great Lakes and the northward progress of the coastal low will put us in a squeeze play of clouds today. Light precip will follow as the clouds get thicker and the upper low provides instability and broad lift. The moisture from the ESE will meet up with the advancing upper low and could develop some taller SHRA.
(This Evening through Saturday) In the mid/upper-levels, light-moderate (10-20 knot) NNW flow will remain in place across the TN Valley overnight, as our region will remain along the eastern flank of an amplified subtropical ridge centered across northern Mexico. Over the course of the day tomorrow, winds aloft across our region will veer to NNE in response to the orientation of a deepening mid-level trough across southern GA/north FL.
(Tonight through Sunday Night) Calm conditions persist across Middle TN tonight as a centered area of high pressure sits just off to our northwest. Saturday's forecast continues our dry and warm stint with less cloud coverage as the low over the Great Lakes pushes ever so slightly east. Afternoon temperatures will in turn be a touch warmer, near 80 degrees.
This will be due to 500 mb high pressure, the center of which will ease northeast from Mexico to the Lone Star State, but remain the dominant weather feature over Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley.
1248 AM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025 (This Evening through Saturday) In the mid/upper-levels, light-moderate (10-20 knot) NNW flow will remain in place across the TN Valley overnight, as our region will remain along the eastern flank of an amplified subtropical ridge centered across northern Mexico. Over the course of the day tomorrow, winds aloft across our region will veer to NNE in response to the orientation of a deepening mid-level trough across southern GA/north FL.
Upper troughing across the southeast gradually becomes a cutoff upper low through Sunday before ejecting northeast across the Mid- Atlantic states early in the week. This will continue to maintain northerly to northeasterly flow aloft over us and likewise keep cooler, drier air across the forecast area. By mid- week, flow shifts easterly as upper ridging begins building in from the southern Plains states helping to warm temperatures up and bring a slightly moister airmass back into the area.
115 AM EDT Sat Oct 11 2025 Low pressure will slowly move north along the SE coast into Sunday. *Rain to spread into the Southeastern NC late tonight Canadian high pressure extending south into the Carolinas will gradually weaken ahead of the developing coastal low over Florida. *Rain and breezy conditions spreading inland through Saturday night A deepening upper level trough and associated closed low pivoting over the Southeast will help lift the coastal low near Florida northward along the NC coast by Saturday night and Sunday morning.
* Moisture and precipitation chances get flushed out on Sunday as a trough swings through, leaving below-normal temperatures in its wake.
Fog, dense across portions of the area (see Dense Fog Adv that ends at 10am), will burn off by mid to late morning, leaving a quiet day with highs in the mid 70s (central MO) to the low 80s as a ridge builds into the area.
Today and tonight, high pressure was centered across the MN/Dakota border, with clear skies and light winds across the region. On Saturday night, warm air advection ahead of an approaching cold front will lead to chances for showers and thunderstorms across western Minnesota, but the lack of instability will be the limiting factor. Sunday will also have breezy southerly winds of the cold front, and northwest winds behind it.
***** LOW PROBABILITY OF APPRECIABLE RAINFALL THIS WEEK ***** Deterministic guidance is in agreement a positively tilted ridge will build into the region out of the Great Plains today, maintaining dry weather through at least tomorrow night.
South winds will begin to increase to a degree across eastern OK this afternoon under an expanding upper ridge.
234 AM EDT Sat Oct 11 2025 * Dry conditions are expected through the weekend with highs in the low to mid 70s.
147 AM PDT Sat Oct 11 2025 Updated at 143 AM PDT Sat Oct 11 2025 * Strong, gusty south winds in Central Nevada this afternoon into this evening * Precipitation chances increase tonight into Saturday night as a trough of low pressure passes across Northern Nevada * Much cooler this weekend (Today through next Saturday) WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: A trough of low pressure will pass eastward across Northern Nevada this morning into Saturday night, resulting in elevated precipitation chances.
1229 AM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025 - Dry weather conditions with cooler mornings will prevail through this weekend. Have lowered overnight lows just a bit based on recent cooler obs/ guidance trends. /EC/ High pressure ridging and light northerly flow will continue tonight and Saturday, under mainly clear skies. Expect slightly warmer highs on Saturday, climbing into the low to mid 80s. /15/ The building upper ridge combined with drier air advecting across the southeast CONUS will allow for dry and quiet conditions to persist across our CWA through the weekend. Heading into the new work week, the upper ridge axis will shift slightly eastward.
(Tonight through Sunday night) The highlight of the short term will be the pleasant conditions! Upper level ridging is centered over the central U. This ridge will continue to dominate through the weekend, keeping things similar each day. The ridge starts to break down some heading into late week, which could help some isolated rain chances creep back in.
This boundary is expected to lift northward as a warm front into this afternoon. Influenced still by mid to upper level ridging across the central CONUS, in conjunction with surface to 850mb west-southwesterly downslope flow, temperatures will continue to run well above normal in the mid to upper 80s, with low 90s in south-central Kansas.
243 AM EDT Sat Oct 11 2025 A low pressure system will tracking along the Atlantic coastline will spread showers into mainly the Piedmont over the weekend.
Compact stacked low pressure is clearly evident in WV and IR imagery over Bruce Peninsula, trekking toward Lake Ontario where it will stall and continue to fill in through the day. All in all, a typical October day with highs in the lower to mid 60s.
(Today) A weak upper low that was SE of the region late Fri has moved to the Georgia coast. With more sun expected, high temperatures should rise from the low/mid 70s higher elevations to mid/upper 70s the warmer spots.
This troughing will be responsible for the most robust convection this morning through the afternoon that should remain focused south of Alligator Alley, and move off into the Atlantic by mid to late afternoon.
Broken record: dominant mid-upper ridging across the area isn't going anywhere anytime soon.
A large area of high pressure will build into the Upper Midwest and western Great Lakes area tonight, leading to light N to NE winds and cool temperatures. Through Sunday afternoon, dry weather is confidently forecast, as a ridge of high pressure moves through the region.
/NEW/ /Through Sunday Night/ High pressure continues to be in control across North and Central Texas with little change in the pattern this weekend. Sunday will feature an elevated threat for fire starts given relative humidity values in the lower 20% range with southerly winds near 15 mph. Relative humidities will begin to recover once the sun sets, returning the probability of fire starts to the low category for Sunday night.
(Today and tonight) High pressure will continue to be the main driver of the warm and dry conditions across the region. (Sunday night through next Saturday) By Sunday, the upper level ridge over the area tonight will be weakening as the strong trough over the Pacific Northwest moves into the western CONUS. One is lee troughing along the eastern slopes of the Rockies, which will tighten surface pressure gradients in the southern plains, increasing south to southwesterly winds in our area.
Cloud cover over SD and NE will gradually move northeast, slowly covering our CWA throughout today as an upper-level trough crosses the Rockies. A strong, southerly LLJ will develop today across the Northern Plains in response the nearing trough, causing WAA and strong southeasterly surface winds over MN. The WAA and upper-level diffluence downstream of the aforementioned trough are what drive the QPF. It isn't until the trough and cold front arrive towards Sunday evening that rain becomes more widespread across the CWA.
130 AM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025 - High pressure will keep the next 7 days dry and seasonally mild. Despite the Omega blocking-like pattern's hold, there are subtleties at play in the otherwise 7 day forecast of dry and seasonally mild conditions. One example is our current cloud cover associated with a subtle pva kink in the overtop-the-ridge flow.
Temperatures won't slide until high pressure makes its presence better known tomorrow. A deep upper-level low sat over the coast of the Pacific Northwest today and worked to build the ridge back over the lee of the Rockies and into the western High Plains. The aforementioned upper low will elongate into a longwave trough over much of the western CONUS, transporting Pacific monsoonal moisture across the Plains. A compartment of the longwave trough will deepen and negatively tilt over the Northern Plains, pulling the moisture axis into the Dakotas. Chances for precipitation have trended down, but could increase if lee side troughing develops again (similar to last night) in response to the broad synoptic forcing, aiding in moisture transport into southern Iowa. Right now, the favored solution is an H850 cyclone dropping into the Southern Plains.
(Tonight through Sunday) Over the weekend, our forecast area will remain on the dry, western side of a coastal low pressure system centered just off the South Carolina coast.
304 AM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025 - Dry weather conditions with cooler mornings will prevail through this weekend. Quiet and dry weather conditions will continue today across our CWA thanks to high pressure ridging and light northerly flow under mostly clear skies. Expect afternoon highs to peak into the low/mid 80s areawide. Dry conditions will persist looking ahead into Sunday with daytime highs peaking into the low/mid 80s. Similar conditions are occur Sunday night under clear skies with lows in the low/mid 50s. Heading into the new work week, the upper ridge axis will shift slightly eastward towards the ArkLaMiss Region.
1253 AM EDT Sat Oct 11 2025 High pressure will lead to mainly dry conditions and seasonable temperatures through the weekend. A compact mid level low pressure system will drop southeast across the lower Great Lakes today. As it does, an associated weak cold front will sag southeast into our area this morning before washing out heading into this afternoon. Temperatures will remain mild with afternoon highs mostly in the low 70s. Lows tonight will be in the 40s with highs on Sunday in the low to possibly mid 70s. By Sunday night, large scale ridging will be moving in, amplified by a strong area of low pressure moving through southern Canada toward the Hudson Bay area.
611 AM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025 - Dry weather conditions with cooler mornings will prevail through this weekend. Quiet and dry weather conditions will continue today across our CWA thanks to high pressure ridging and light northerly flow under mostly clear skies. Expect afternoon highs to peak into the low/mid 80s areawide. Dry conditions will persist looking ahead into Sunday with daytime highs peaking into the low/mid 80s. Similar conditions are occur Sunday night under clear skies with lows in the low/mid 50s. Heading into the new work week, the upper ridge axis will shift slightly eastward towards the ArkLaMiss Region.
Cold front moving through eastern Idaho this morning and expect a significant temperatures drop through the day. Any snow amounts will be light with around 1 to 3 inches in the Island Park area and surrounding areas the highest with only a few tenths in the central mountains. With southerly flow ahead of the next split flow/closed low setup, we will see more 60s returning to the forecast.
602 AM EDT Sat Oct 11 2025 A low pressure system will tracking along the Atlantic coastline will spread showers into mainly the Piedmont over the weekend.
Northern Lake Huron low pressure moves to the OH/PA border by this evening while maintaining an area of clouds across Lower Mi. A clearing trend this evening is followed by renewed low cloud concerns from Lake Huron and Erie late tonight as the low level wind turns toward the east. Compact stacked low pressure is clearly evident in WV and IR imagery over Bruce Peninsula, trekking toward Lake Ontario where it will stall and continue to fill in through the day. All in all, a typical October day with highs in the lower to mid 60s.
630 AM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025 Upper troughing across the southeast gradually becomes a cutoff upper low through Sunday before ejecting northeast across the Mid- Atlantic states early in the week. This will continue to maintain northerly to northeasterly flow aloft over us and likewise keep cooler, drier air across the forecast area. By mid- week, flow shifts easterly as upper ridging begins building in from the southern Plains states helping to warm temperatures up and bring a slightly moister airmass back into the area.
As we go through the day, the trough off to our west will start to dip southward and this will allow for large-scale ascent to continue to take place in advance of the approaching frontal boundary. The trough also brings with it dry air aloft and strong mid-level flow. Several troughs will highlight the forecast for much of the coming week with continued chances for showers and thunderstorms each day.
Cooler with drying and a return of the marine layer for the next two days.
559 AM MDT Sat Oct 11 2025 - Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms today, mainly across the higher terrain. In addition, there is a trough over the West Coast of the US that is helping to provide forcing across the Four Corners while streaming this moisture towards the area.
Satellite image shows the upper low just inland over northwest Oregon. The upper low will remain overhead for most of the day, then the upper trough axis will shift southeast late this afternoon. Another upper low will drop south towards our area Sunday afternoon and were likely to see a net increase in precipitation along the north coast, north of the Umpqua Divide and northern Cascades as a front moves into the area.
/Issued 1249 AM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025/ /Through Sunday Night/ High pressure continues to be in control across North and Central Texas with little change in the pattern this weekend. Sunday will feature an elevated threat for fire starts given relative humidity values in the lower 20% range with southerly winds near 15 mph. Relative humidities will begin to recover once the sun sets, returning the probability of fire starts to the low category for Sunday night.
549 AM EDT Sat Oct 11 2025 High pressure will lead to mainly dry conditions and seasonable temperatures through the weekend. A compact mid level low pressure system will drop southeast across the lower Great Lakes today. As it does, an associated weak cold front will sag southeast into our area this morning before washing out heading into this afternoon. Temperatures will remain mild with afternoon highs mostly in the low 70s. Lows tonight will be in the 40s with highs on Sunday in the low to possibly mid 70s. By Sunday night, large scale ridging will be moving in, amplified by a strong area of low pressure moving through southern Canada toward the Hudson Bay area.
604 AM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025 (Tonight through Sunday) Over the weekend, our forecast area will remain on the dry, western side of a coastal low pressure system centered just off the South Carolina coast.
639 AM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025 (Today) A weak upper low that was SE of the region late Fri has moved to the Georgia coast. With more sun expected, high temperatures should rise from the low/mid 70s higher elevations to mid/upper 70s the warmer spots.
616 AM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025 (Tonight through Sunday night) The highlight of the short term will be the pleasant conditions! Upper level ridging is centered over the central U. This ridge will continue to dominate through the weekend, keeping things similar each day. The ridge starts to break down some heading into late week, which could help some isolated rain chances creep back in.
750 AM EDT Sat Oct 11 2025 Clouds and isolated light precipitation chances with a low pressure system over the Great Lakes.
(This evening through Sunday) Water vapor imagery this afternoon reveals a trough moving across the Carolinas as an upper ridge builds in from the west. We will have another cool start Sunday morning with lows dropping back into the low to mid 50s.
138 PM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025 - After a warm Sunday with highs in the upper 70s to 80s, slightly cooler weather is expected with highs in the 60s to 70s - A surface boundary lays out across the area tomorrow as a series of waves move through the flow. High pressure is sliding east of the area today as an upper level a weak upper level wave moves northeast of the area.
- Dry weather conditions with cooler mornings will prevail through this weekend. The Gulf Coast region will remain locked in between synoptic ridging to the west over south TX and cutoff low over the east. Ridge to the west will propagates eastward across the ArkLaTex into the Gulf Coast region through midweek. As it moves near or over the northern Gulf, mean ridging will fall from around 593 to 595DM to around 586DM into mid to late week.
311 PM EDT Sat Oct 11 2025 High pressure will provide dry and warm conditions today. Dry conditions prevail today as a weak cold front washes out across the area, providing nothing more than a bit of mid-level cloud cover. Highs today will top out in the low/mid 70s across the lowlands, with upper 50s and 60s in the mountains, all amid mostly sunny skies. Lows tonight will be in the 40s, with highs on Sunday in the low/mid 70s across the lowlands, with 50s to mid 60s in the mountains.
The higher swell periods will continue to promote coastal flooding and higher than normal water levels.
237 PM MDT Sat Oct 11 2025 - Waves of showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue overnight, mainly over the higher terrain. - Heavy rainfall and localized flooding possible for the higher elevations of the eastern San Juans overnight. Dry elsewhere, with a late afternoon cold front dropping south through the plains into Sunday evening.
The low will then drift offshore by midweek, as dry high pressure builds in from the west brings above normal temperatures to the region. As of 130 pm Saturday: The cwfa will remain within the western periphery of deepening cyclone off the Carolina coast through the period. The cyclone's high level cloud shield will remain in place through tonight while stratocu gradually fills in acrs the piedmont. The associated upper low will merge with another compact low invof the northern Mid-Atlantic.
151 PM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025 - High pressure will keep the next 7 days dry and seasonally mild.
(Rest of today through Sunday) A high pressure system sits just to our northwest, on the KY/TN border. Calm conditions can be expected through the weekend while this high moves off and the following high situates itself in the south. (Sunday Night through next Saturday) Into the work week, a high pressure system is forecasted to be the dominant feature, leading to the increase in our temperatures. They will level off in the low 80s for highs by mid-week, with morning lows in the low to mid 50s. High pressure also means no precipitation in the forecast for the period, so things will remain dry. (12Z TAFS) High pressure will remain over the area through the taf period.
(This afternoon through Sunday) The upper level trough over the southeast will eventually gain a cutoff low, then begin moving off the coast of the southeast CONUS. During this period the winds will still be a little elevated since the pressure gradient between the trough and the ridge to the west is bit tighter, but once it starts going that will help high pressure build in and bring lighter and more variable winds. Other than that, dry and seasonable temperatures for Oct in the low to mid 80s continue for this weekend.
Expect highs to reach the mid to upper 70s in areas where cloud cover has diminished, and the low to mid-70s for areas still dealing with some cloud cover. We'll see a pattern shift on Sunday as the ridge moves east and a 500h trough arrives over the western part of the Dakotas. Models show a closed low developing over southern Saskatchewan and northern North Dakota and Montana during the afternoon hours. Southerly winds will bring in warmer air as well, with highs reaching into the 80s, giving us another taste of summer.
Associated lee trough will develop on Sunday, which will result in gusty south winds from late morning into the afternoon hours. (Sunday night through next Saturday) An upper-level ridge that has persisted across Texas will be nudged southeastward by a developing trough over the western US on Sunday night. A mid-level impulse at the base of this trough should advect Pacific-based moisture across the Desert Southwest from the remnants of Tropical Storm Priscilla.
300 PM EDT Sat Oct 11 2025 - Fog Possible Tonight - Mostly Dry Week Ahead with Slight Rain Chances - Fog Possible Tonight High pressure ridge quickly following the departing low over the eastern Great Lakes tonight will act to evaporate the stratocumulus later this evening. A period of mostly clear skies and light east winds tonight will favor surface temperatures cooling into the lower 40s. Fair/Good ensemble agreement in the pattern across the CONUS this week, featuring a trough/low over the western US and a tendency for ridging over the Midwest. As such, Michigan's weather will be influenced mostly by sprawling regional high pressure systems, which will once again keep us mostly dry with relatively light winds.
A compact mid level low pressure system will pivot away from the region this evening into tonight, with midlevel ridging nudging eastward from the mid MO Vly by tonight through the short term period. Highs today will top out in the lower 70s, with a mix of sun and clouds (more clouds favored near/SE of I-71). Dry and seasonably mild conditions are on tap for the short term period with highs in the lower 70s and lows Sunday night into the upper 40s once again.
1148 AM MDT Sat Oct 11 2025 - Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms today, mainly across the higher terrain. In addition, there is a trough over the West Coast of the US that is helping to provide forcing across the Four Corners while streaming this moisture towards the area.
1255 PM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025 - After a warm Sunday with highs in the upper 70s to 80s, slightly cooler weather is expected with highs in the 60s to 70s - A surface boundary lays out across the area tomorrow as a series of waves move through the flow. High pressure is sliding east of the area today as an upper level a weak upper level wave moves northeast of the area.
(Today and tonight) High pressure will continue to be the main driver of the warm and dry conditions across the region. (Sunday night through next Saturday) An upper-level ridge that has persisted across Texas will be nudged southeastward by a developing trough over the western US on Sunday night. A mid-level impulse at the base of this trough should advect Pacific-based moisture across the Desert Southwest from the remnants of Tropical Storm Priscilla.