Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A cold front extends south out of the Great Lakes stretching from lower Michigan through southern Indiana. Temperatures decrease overnight after the frontal passage with lows dipping into the low to mid 50s.
- A period of dry and warmer weather expected midweek. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms remain on target for late this afternoon as a potent vort max tracks east through lower Michigan sending a secondary cold front through.
1245 PM EDT Mon Jun 9 2025 - Upper Low Spawns Afternoon Showers - Increasing Confidence in Rain/Convection Late Week - Upper Low Spawns Afternoon Showers The core region of the upper low moves in this afternoon and steepening lapse rates combine with deep moisture to bring a diurnal enhancement of showers and thunderstorms from mid afternoon into the evening. Showers diminish after sunset with a lesser chance of diurnal enhancement on Tuesday as the upper low moves out.
143 PM PDT Mon Jun 9 2025 Strong high pressure remains over the Pacific Northwest. This high will keep very hot temperatures and moderate to high HeatRisk across much of the region today. The ridge will move a bit eastward on Tuesday and gradually break down and we will be in a more southwesterly flow by late afternoon early evening.
- Cooler and wetter conditions anticipated for much of this week, with heavy rainfall and strong thunderstorms possible at times.
1138 AM CDT Mon Jun 9 2025 - Cooler with low humidity behind the front into Tuesday.
As an upper-level trough propagates eastward through the Great Lakes region, Florida remains under the influence of weak ridging. With the subtropical ridge axis situated to the east of Florida, a WSW flow continues at the surface across the region. As the upper- level trough to the north keeps sliding east, the subtropical ridge will be pushed farther east as well. Light winds and seas are expected over the next few days as high pressure remains in control.
Warmer and more humid air returns to the region by the end of the week into the upcoming weekend.
With the synoptic lift moving in with the upper level low, modest shear, instability, and dry air at the surface some strong to severe storms are possible with winds being the primary threat and hail as the secondary.
High temperatures slowly trending warmer in the coming days. (This evening through Tuesday night) The upper level ridge has begun to build northward from the Pacific and should position itself over the southwestern CONUS during the short term period. By tomorrow night, better moisture advection is expected and the upper low develops over the region.
A W-SW flow aloft will direct more moisture upstream into our area on Tuesday as a short wave trough approaches the west coast. The shower and thunderstorm chances increase in the afternoon and evening, especially in SE Oregon due to the closer proximity to the approaching trough. Hot temperatures continue through Tuesday as a Heat Advisory remains in effect for the Lower Treasure Valley.
The forecast pattern this week will focus on the track of a high pressure center currently over the eastern Pacific. As this high is forecast to shift east and become centered over the desert southwest this weekend, temperatures will rise from just above normal this work week to 7 to 10 degrees above normal by the end of the weekend. While the upper high remains to the west this week, a weak ripple in the upper level flow will cross to the northeast.
/issued 143 PM PDT Mon Jun 9 2025/ Strong high pressure remains over the Pacific Northwest. This high will keep very hot temperatures and moderate to high HeatRisk across much of the region today. The ridge will move a bit eastward on Tuesday and gradually break down and we will be in a more southwesterly flow by late afternoon early evening.
732 PM EDT Mon Jun 9 2025 A cold front along with a series of disturbances aloft will affect the area into mid-week. An upper level disturbance and an approaching cold front will bring chances for showers and storms to the area through the near term period with the potential for the convection to be more widespread Tuesday afternoon than this afternoon into tonight. Lows tonight will fall to the lower 70s with highs Tuesday in the mid 80s. Convection is likely to be ongoing for the first half of Tuesday night as cold front approaches the area before stalling. Offshore ridge, from surface up to 700mb, develops offshore with moisture advection around ridge maintaining PWATs of 1.
High pressure will result in mild temperatures and light winds through Tuesday, with lingering moisture allowing for a few afternoon showers and storms over the higher terrain.
949 PM EDT Mon Jun 9 2025 Showers expected through the overnight hours as a cold front crosses the area.
- A period of dry and warmer weather is expected midweek. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms remain on target for late this afternoon as a potent vort max tracks east through lower Michigan sending a secondary cold front through.
1028 PM EDT Mon Jun 9 2025 A cold front along with a series of disturbances aloft will affect the area into mid-week. An upper level disturbance and an approaching cold front will bring chances for showers and storms to the area through the near term period with the potential for the convection to be more widespread Tuesday afternoon than this afternoon into tonight. Lows tonight will fall to the lower 70s with highs Tuesday in the mid 80s. Convection is likely to be ongoing for the first half of Tuesday night as cold front approaches the area before stalling. Offshore ridge, from surface up to 700mb, develops offshore with moisture advection around ridge maintaining PWATs of 1.
910 PM CDT Mon Jun 9 2025 Tonight: The cold front will continue to migrate southward tonight, providing potential re-development of shower/t-storm during the early evening across southern MS.
825 PM EDT Mon Jun 9 2025 Showers and thunderstorms are expected through this evening as a cold front crosses the area.
Issued by National Weather Service Springfield MO 639 PM CDT Mon Jun 9 2025 - Drier and slightly cooler weather the next few days with highs slightly below average.
Surface analysis places expansive high pressure now centered between Bermuda and the Azores, with a series of weak low-level height and moisture perturbations progressing westward towards the eastern Caribbean. Temperatures are in the lower to mid 80s, with dew points in the mid to upper 70s. From synopsis, broad high pressure moving into the central North Atlantic will support gentle to moderate east to southeast breezes, with the potential for moderate to fresh breezes towards late week.
720 PM EDT Mon Jun 9 2025 As an upper-level trough propagates eastward through the Great Lakes region, Florida remains under the influence of weak ridging. With the subtropical ridge axis situated to the east of Florida, a WSW flow continues at the surface across the region. As the upper- level trough to the north keeps sliding east, the subtropical ridge will be pushed farther east as well. Light winds and seas are expected over the next few days as high pressure remains in control.
644 PM CDT Mon Jun 9 2025 (This evening through Tuesday Night) Though temperatures have recovered this afternoon, albeit somewhat cooler when compared to recent days, advertised hi-res showers and thunderstorms have struggled to materialize as a surface boundary near I-30 remains stalled. Best opportunity for convective coverage will be across the southern zones and south of the FA through the late afternoon and evening, co-located within the highest diurnally driven instability gradient. Guidance continues to highlight a corridor for the highest PoPs along I-20 and south, with highs in the mid to upper 80's, and low 90's.
446 AM EDT Tue Jun 10 2025 A cold front will slowly move to the coastal Carolinas by Wednesday and stall over the area.
- A cold front stalls across the region tonight, bringing near daily chances of showers and thunderstorms through the weekend.
WV imagery shows a trough riding the US/Mexico border, and this feature is forecast to arrive late this afternoon/evening. With multiple residual boundaries from previous convection knocking about, rain chances will remain high through at least late Wednesday afternoon, when the trough clears the area. For those who like cooler temperatures, highs will remain below normal over the lowlands, and not much above normal elsewhere.
An upper level ridge of high pressure will amplify off the coast on Tuesday and Wednesday, bringing warmer weather for the inland valleys into the deserts while the persistent, though shallower, marine layer helps moderate temperatures near the coast. The only caveat is the potential for a gulf surge into the low deserts, which may limit warming if dew points are high enough and moisture doesn't mix out until later in the afternoon.
255 AM CDT Tue Jun 10 2025 - Warmer temperatures expected today.
Dry, breezy, and slightly cooler conditions are expected Wednesday onward.
(Today through Wednesday) Upper trough over the Great Lakes with the trough axis southward to near Pensacola early this morning with upper ridging over the Intermountain West. If anything, moisture levels may be a bit higher tomorrow, so we cannot really back off of the high probabilities for the 12 hour period.
228 AM MDT Tue Jun 10 2025 KEY MESSAGES: - Haze and smoke will continue to be problematic at times, and may be in the unhealthy range by Tuesday behind a cold front. WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: A cold front will move south across the forecast area this morning.
- Cooler late this week with daily afternoon showers and thunderstorms. The ridge axis does shift eastward today, allowing southwesterly flow to develop over the region.
Some showers will progress east overnight Tuesday night into the central mountains as upper level trof works east.
With afternoon dew points dropping into the low 60s to high 50s, humidity will remain manageable today making for a rather pleasant summer afternoon.
Quiet weather will continue as a surface cold front has moved southeast of central Indiana. There will be some passing mid clouds, especially south, as they traverse through an upper trough. The area will remain in northwest flow aloft on the back side of an upper trough, keeping some cooler air aloft over the region. At the surface, high pressure will be in control. A quiet night is expected with high pressure remaining the dominant influence.
122 AM EDT Tue Jun 10 2025 (Today through Wednesday) Mid-level ridging across the area will continue to weaken today as a mid-level trough deepens across the Eastern Seaboard.
That is not to say that the Lower Keys won't see any showers, but the coverage should be less. In addition, an inverted trough associated with an easterly undulation will sharpen somewhat as it approaches the Keys tonight. That being said, have nudged up PoPs to "likely" but have kept them below the higher end solutions.
Water vapor imagery early this morning shows an upper low spinning over Lake Huron with northwest flow in place from the middle Mississippi Valley into the northern Plains states. The 06Z HRRR smoke model shows the highest concentrations of smoke arriving later this morning into afternoon.
- Much warmer weather is expected on Wednesday with highs near 80 degrees.
- Slightly warmer weather is expected on Wednesday.
Weak upper ridging continues through Tuesday, combined with low surface dew points, which will continue the dry conditions. The ridge flattens out Wednesday with a series of disturbances moving through the Central Rockies and across the plains.
1229 AM CDT Tue Jun 10 2025 (Tonight through Wednesday night) The subtropical ridge breaks down as low pressure works into North Texas and the Southern Plains by Wednesday night.
353 AM CDT Tue Jun 10 2025 - After a noticably cool start to the day (40s in many spots), the heat will turn up across the local area with high temperatures climbing into the lower 90s this afternoon.
141 AM EDT Tue Jun 10 2025 Chances for a few showers today as an upper level trough moves through.
- Cooler and wetter conditions anticipated for much of this week, with heavy rainfall and strong thunderstorms possible at times. Have bumped PoPs up across the Big Country and Concho Valley given the higher confidence for storms overnight. Otherwise, temperatures will be cooler, with highs in the 80s and lower 90s.
345 AM CDT Tue Jun 10 2025 - Hot on Wednesday with highs in the low to mid 90s.
Just ahead of that boundary, we're seeing a few showers still, but dew points in the low 60s have already registered at CKV.
Despite NW flow in place atop this bndry this evening, drier air aloft and the lack of any perturbations in this flow pattern will yield continued quiet conditions overnight, although a weak H925-850 trough that will drift S into Deep E TX/Cntrl LA overnight may result in some cu development over these areas, with the latest satellite imagery depicting considerable convective blowoff from ongoing convection over portions of W and WCntrl TX that should result in elevated cigs spreading into portions of E TX/Lower Toledo Bend Country late tonight. The only changes needed to the current forecast were to drop pops tonight for the Srn zones near the stationary front, and to reduce sky cover at least for this evening before additional cu/elevated cigs develop late near the H925-850 trough.
(Today through Wednesday) Mid-level ridging across the area will continue to weaken today as a mid-level trough deepens across the Eastern Seaboard.
For this afternoon, the base of the longwave trough starts to deamplify, and upper heights will start to rise. Highs will generally be in the upper 80s to lower 90s with overnight lows in the low to mid 70s.
High pressure aloft will begin to weaken today, but not before supporting one final day of hazardous heat across inland areas while the coast begins to cool. Ridge axis has already passed east of the area, and one more day or potentially hazardous heat is expected the rest of this afternoon.
Cloud cover will likely clear during this time, however humidity will remain a bit higher overnight than usual, resulting in 5-10 degree warmer than average low temperatures.
High pressure surface and aloft will continue to hold over the region.
High temperatures slowly trending warmer in the coming days. (This evening through Tuesday night) The upper level ridge has begun to build northward from the Pacific and should position itself over the southwestern CONUS during the short term period. By tomorrow night, better moisture advection is expected and the upper low develops over the region. The best chances for showers and thunderstorms are actually overnight into Wednesday, since the upper low is expected to pull more moisture into the area and help create a more unstable air mass.
137 AM EDT Tue Jun 10 2025 A cold front will slowly shift east today and keep a lingering threat of showers/storms in the Piedmont.
Aloft we have northwesterly flow as troughing moves into the Ohio River Valley. The RRFS shows the highest near surface signal back across SE Dakota early this morning and observation out there are not detecting any visibility restrictions. Overall, a more seasonal day for temperatures with highs near normal around the low 80s. Aloft we have northwesterly flow as troughing moves into the Ohio River Valley. The RRFS shows the highest near surface signal back across SE Dakota early this morning and observation out there are not detecting any visibility restrictions. Overall, a more seasonal day for temperatures with highs near normal around the low 80s.
Weak and mostly dry high pressure controls our weather Tuesday and Wednesday.
Showers and clouds will clear out this morning as a cold front moves through the region. Discussion: In the upper levels, a deep trough will be over the eastern U. The trough will begin retreating to the north later tonight. At the surface, a weak cold front will move through the region this morning. The cold front is currently over Southern Illinois. High pressure will move into the region later today and tonight. Isolated to scattered showers are expected early this morning ahead of the cold front. Clouds and rain will clear out of the region this morning as the cold front moves through.
Issued by National Weather Service Springfield MO 1149 PM CDT Mon Jun 9 2025 - Drier and slightly cooler weather the next few days with highs slightly below average.
(Tonight through Wednesday night) The subtropical ridge breaks down as low pressure works into North Texas and the Southern Plains by Wednesday night.
/issued 143 PM PDT Mon Jun 9 2025/ Strong high pressure remains over the Pacific Northwest. This high will keep very hot temperatures and moderate to high HeatRisk across much of the region today. The ridge will move a bit eastward on Tuesday and gradually break down and we will be in a more southwesterly flow by late afternoon early evening. As the ridge moves eastward on Tuesday into Wednesday, there will be a slight (15-20%) chance of showers and thunderstorms across central Oregon and the Ochoco-John day Highlands Tuesday and then more across Eastern Oregon on Wednesday. Highs on Wednesday will be about 7 to 10 degrees cooler than Tuesday, and range mainly in the 80s to lower 90s.
Enough thinning of the high clouds through the day should fuel stronger heating for renewed convection amid modest CIN, especially south of the MCV (southern half of the CWA in this case) where ascent will be more favorable than to its north in the subsident region. Kept some 20-40 PoPs area wide tonight as a precaution should the low stay more over our northern counties.
230 AM EDT Tue Jun 10 2025 A cold front along with a series of disturbances aloft will affect the area into mid-week. An upper level disturbance and an approaching cold front will bring chances for showers and storms to the area through the near term period with the potential for the convection to be more widespread Tuesday afternoon than this afternoon into tonight. Lows tonight will fall to the lower 70s with highs Tuesday in the mid 80s. Convection is likely to be ongoing for the first half of Tuesday night as cold front approaches the area before stalling. Offshore ridge, from surface up to 700mb, develops offshore with moisture advection around ridge maintaining PWATs of 1.
226 AM EDT Tue Jun 10 2025 A cold front will slowly shift east today and keep a lingering threat of showers/storms in the Piedmont.
Temperatures will be pleasant for early June, with lows in the low-mid 50s tonight, reaching near 80 on Tuesday. A cold front that drops southward into the Upper Mississippi Valley mid week will get hung up near the I-80 corridor, as high pressure hangs firm over the Appalachians. As a piece of energy ejects from an upper low over the central and southern Plains, moisture will be drawn northward, though getting it this far east will be problematic for a couple of days.
A large upper trough is centered over the western Great Lakes Region, with troughing extending across a large portion of the CONUS. Along with this, a cold front that is slowly moving into east TX / N LA is expected to slow then become quasi stationary through the short term.
High temperatures generally decreasing each day this week along with cooler overnight low temperatures late this week. An upper level ridge over California will migrate eastward as a weak upper level trough swings over our area from the north. This incoming trough looks quite dry and main impacts appear to be a return of stronger gusty winds and cooler temperatures.
413 AM EDT Tue Jun 10 2025 A cold front will slowly move to the coastal Carolinas by Wednesday and stall over the area.
Surface analysis late this evening shows a cold front extending from SE MI across Indiana to southern IL and Central MO. Further southwest, high pressure was found over OK and KS. Aloft, water vapor showed subsidence in play over Indiana and points to the southwest while a large and broad upper low was found over the Great Lakes. Decreasing cloudiness is expected to continue as clouds to continue diminish and the cold front slides eastward. Subsidence from the southwest will also continue to build eastward along with e approaching high pressure system. A cold front extends south out of the Great Lakes stretching from lower Michigan through southern Indiana. Temperatures decrease overnight after the frontal passage with lows dipping into the low to mid 50s.
- A period of dry and warmer weather is expected midweek. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms remain on target for late this afternoon as a potent vort max tracks east through lower Michigan sending a secondary cold front through. Large scale subsidence in the wake of the upper trough will promote dry/quiet wx into Tuesday and Wednesday, with Wednesday a significantly warmer day as low level southwest flow develops under building heights aloft.
- Much warmer weather is expected on Wednesday with highs well into the 80s.
An upper level trough will swing across the combined Panhandles through mid-week. In addition, an area of low pressure looks to develop to our south/southwest over New Mexico and this should help initiate showers and thunderstorms, moreso to our south, but may allow for some low chance POPs (20-40%) to occur in the counties south of I-40. Much of the combined Panhandle should remain dry today but conditions are forecast to remain cooler with highs in the lower to potentially mid 80s. Throughout this week, as the upper trough shifts through the area and east of the Panhandles, this will shift our better chances for rain and storms from west to east. The highest rain and storm chances remain in the southern parts of the Texas Panhandle.
Issued by National Weather Service Wichita KS 154 AM CDT Tue Jun 10 2025 - Warm and dry Tuesday with afternoon temperatures in the lower 90s.
(Today through Wednesday) A deep upper level trough covers most of the eastern half of the country this morning. The low level flow is from the southeast bringing a warm, moist airmass to the CWA. The upper flow over TX is west-northwesterly on the backside of the trough.
145 AM EDT Tue Jun 10 2025 A cold front will move east of the local area this evening with a secondary cold front moving east across the region tonight.
355 AM EDT Tue Jun 10 2025 A cold front will cross the area later today.
Taking a look at water vapor imagery, we can see the stout upper trough peeling off to the northeast with a few clusters of thunderstorms ongoing across the northern Gulf coast as well as back to our west. Drier air will begin to work into the region behind the boundary as weak upper ridging builds in.
Slightly cooler air aloft will move in today, which combined with better surface moisture, will aid in the development of afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. A relatively compact upper low then sets up near the BC coast late this week into the weekend. Several waves pivoting around the base of this upper low will eject toward the Northern Rockies, which will promote several more rounds of showers and thunderstorms.
- Warmer today with an isolated storm potential this afternoon.
225 AM EDT Tue Jun 10 2025 Chances for a few showers today as an upper level trough moves through.
An upper level trough over the Great Lakes Region will progress eastward through Tuesday, as upper ridging builds into the Central Plains. Much warmer highs on Tuesday from the upper 80s to lower 90s, with a return of southerly winds 10 to 15 mph. Tuesday night, the upper flow becomes zonal, as a weak cold front drops into the northwest Sandhills and far northern Nebraska. On Wednesday, the weak cold front becomes stationary across northern Nebraska. Highs will reach to near 95 across far southwest Nebraska, to the low 90s to upper 80s south of the front. Near the front across northern Nebraska, highs will not be a hot in the low to mid 80s.
Warmer and drier conditions return for the rest of the week with southwesterly afternoon breezes.
137 AM CDT Tue Jun 10 2025 Tonight: The cold front will continue to migrate southward tonight, providing potential re-development of shower/t-storm during the early evening across southern MS.