Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
624 AM CDT Thu Aug 1 2024 (Today through Friday) Dry weather is expected to continue through the short term period as an upper-level ridge remains in place over the Southern Plains. The spatial and temporal coverage of the higher heat index values looks to remain too low to warrant a Heat Advisory.
519 AM CDT Thu Aug 1 2024 (Today and tonight) Hot and dry conditions are expected across West Central Texas over the next 24 hours as an upper level ridge continues to dominate our weather.
As mentioned, the cold front was weak, and really won't see much of a cool down temperature wise with highs still mostly in the 90s. Upper level ridging will begin to expand northward across the Rockies Friday. Upper level ridging expands eastward into the western high plains this weekend.
553 AM CDT Thu Aug 1 2024 - Cooler and drier air move into the region today behind the departing storm system. - We will start to gradually warm back up this weekend as an upper level ridge strengthens across the western United States and gradually slides into the High Plains.
835 AM EDT Thu Aug 1 2024 Weak ridging across the area will keep light SE flow with an afternoon sea breeze in place for today into the weekend. A weak upper trough over the state will gradually lift out for Friday. Temperatures expected in the lower to mid 90s this afternoon with slightly higher dewpoints in place will necessitate a heat advisory for this afternoon across the area, with maximum heat indices reaching around 110.
IR currently depicts clear skies across the state and upper Rockies under the influence of upper level ridging from a high near the Texas Panhandle.
Look for upper level troughing influences along with a surface front moving in from the western Ohio River Valley/mid MS River Valley Region later tonight into Friday to result initially in isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms for locations generally north of I-40 Corridor Region tonight and across entire mid state region on Friday.
For Friday, a cold front will approach the area from the northwest. We may see a prefrontal trough, or an area of extra lift that will move into the area ahead of the front in the afternoon, so went with some scattered showers/storms in the northern half and will see with the next few runs if that needs to be increased.
Afternoon temperatures will trend warmer with above normal heat forecast to return to the San Joaquin Valley.
(Today and tonight) Another day under the influence of the 500mb ridge with temperatures rising into triple digits and heat indices largely in the 105-115 range. Slightly less confidence closer to the Kansas / Oklahoma border where slightly cooler and drier air will begin moving in behind the front / outflow.
Although there will be a slight increase in monsoon activity this afternoon, we are still in the transition period of a high pressure system building across much of the western CONUS. Between Friday and the weekend the ridge will center itself roughly over the Four Corners.
High pressure anchored east of the area continues a broad southeasterly flow for SE AZ. As high pressure builds into the intermountain west and the high center reconsolidates to our north, the resulting more easterly flow could bring temporary drying in eastern areas with reduced storm coverage over the weekend.
603 AM CDT Thu Aug 1 2024 (Today through Friday) Our quiet weather pattern continues with high pressure settled overhead. This ridge will stretch out across the region over the next day or two but will remain over the area enough to keep rainfall potential to a minimum. High temperatures will be seasonal, ranging from the lower 90s along the coast to around 100 in the Rio Grande Plains.
- Cooler conditions with a chance(20-60%) for rain return late in the weekend through the mid-week.
Ridging over the Atlantic is the main steering pattern for this disturbance, and it will be pushed closer to our forecast area over the end of the week.
419 AM CDT Thu Aug 1 2024 Today and Tonight: A strong, 594-596 dm ridge is firmly in place over the Southern Plains and Southeast CONUS. The ridge is expected to begin amplifying throughout the day and with this amplification, oppressive heat and humidity is likely across the CWA.
622 AM CDT Thu Aug 1 2024 Today and Tonight: A strong, 594-596 dm ridge is firmly in place over the Southern Plains and Southeast CONUS. The ridge is expected to begin amplifying throughout the day and with this amplification, oppressive heat and humidity is likely across the CWA.
Today's highs range from the low 90s across portions of the Hill Country to upper 90s along the I-35 corridor and up to 103 degrees along the Rio Grande.
A ridge of high pressure centered over the Great Basin will begin to amplify over the Northern Rockies and reach peak strength by the end of this week. Due to the expected excessive heat, an Excessive Heat Warning is in effect for the lower valleys of western Idaho and Clearwater counties in Idaho, along with heat advisories along the ID/MT border.
High pressure expands over the western US today, bringing much warmer temperatures, with inland highs of 95 to 100 degrees.
615 AM CDT Thu Aug 1 2024 (Today through Friday afternoon) Not much change in the short term, as the upper ridge continues to dominate. WV imagery this morning shows the upper ridge extending roughly from the Four Corners through the Arklatex. Friday, the upper ridge develops a little farther northwest, with thicknesses continuing to decrease locally. With the migration of the ridge northwest, models develop very little in the way of convection Friday afternoon.
With much of today's convective activity bubbling north of the island chain, temperatures on land have slid up to the lower 90s quickly this afternoon.
1241 PM CDT Thu Aug 1 2024 (Today through Friday) Our quiet weather pattern continues with high pressure settled overhead. This ridge will stretch out across the region over the next day or two but will remain over the area enough to keep rainfall potential to a minimum. High temperatures will be seasonal, ranging from the lower 90s along the coast to around 100 in the Rio Grande Plains.
1208 PM CDT Thu Aug 1 2024 (Today through Friday) Low precip numbers will remain as the stacked SW high continues to ridge in from the west.
Our region's quiet and dry weather pattern is expected to persist in the short term, due to an upper-level ridge that has settled overhead. High temperatures over the next couple of days will remain near normal for this time of year, ranging from the lower 90s along the Coastal Bend to the low 100s out west.
1223 PM CDT Thu Aug 1 2024 A 1021 mb ridge of high pressure located from the Appalachians back through the northern Gulf Coast will result in mainly rain free weather across the Mid-South this afternoon. Sufficient low- level moisture on the back side of the ridge has kept surface dewpoints high across the area this morning.
High pressure will continue to influence area weather through the TAF period bringing dry conditions.
1220 PM CDT Thu Aug 1 2024 (Today and tonight) Hot and dry conditions are expected across West Central Texas over the next 24 hours as an upper level ridge continues to dominate our weather.
1224 PM CDT Thu Aug 1 2024 (Thursday through Friday) Upper ridge remains locked in across the ArkLaTex this morning, leading to the idea that the afternoon forecast will not shift from what we have seen in the last three days. Overnight, temperatures will remain in the mid to upper 70's as the upper ridge breaks down locally, with the center of the ridge retrograding to the northwest. At the same time, an upper trough digging across southern Minnesota and north Iowa will support a disturbance that will work across the GLR, dragging a frontal boundary southward across the Central Plains.
1227 PM CDT Thu Aug 1 2024 Today and Tonight: A strong, 594-596 dm ridge is firmly in place over the Southern Plains and Southeast CONUS. The ridge is expected to begin amplifying throughout the day and with this amplification, oppressive heat and humidity is likely across the CWA.
Hot and dry conditions have returned as a ridge of high pressure amplifies over the Northern Rockies.
1144 AM CDT Thu Aug 1 2024 (Today through Friday afternoon) Not much change in the short term, as the upper ridge continues to dominate. WV imagery this morning shows the upper ridge extending roughly from the Four Corners through the Arklatex. Friday, the upper ridge develops a little farther northwest, with thicknesses continuing to decrease locally. With the migration of the ridge northwest, models develop very little in the way of convection Friday afternoon.
130 PM MDT Thu Aug 1 2024 A strong upper level ridge over the region will keep conditions hot and dry through Friday night. Winds are expected to remain light, so despite the high temps and low moisture, there are currently no particular additional concerns for fires.
High pressure will build in across the area today and tomorrow with model guidance in very good agreement. The ridge axis looks to be directly over southeast Idaho by Friday.
213 PM CDT Thu Aug 1 2024 - Scattered showers and storms are possible with a slow moving upper low through this evening mainly north of I-72 and again on Friday mainly east of I-55.
The main frontal boundary will sag southward across the area later this evening and overnight bringing cooler and drier conditions behind it. Upper level ridge shifts westward for the weekend with N/NW flow aloft.
(Tonight through Friday night) Rain-free and seasonably hot temperatures will prevail through the short term period as Deep South Texas remains under the influence of high pressure.
This is due to ridging that will gradually break down enough to allow a frontal boundary to approach the area.
Timing of showers and storms developing today looks like initiating around 1-2pm along the higher terrain, with Tucson potentially seeing some isolated to scattered activity between 7-11pm this evening. High pressure anchored east of the area continues a broad southeasterly flow for SE AZ. As high pressure builds into the intermountain west and the high center reconsolidates to our north, the resulting more easterly flow could bring temporary drying in eastern areas with reduced storm coverage over the weekend.
227 PM CDT Thu Aug 1 2024 - Upper low over Minnesota will bring a low risk (15-25 percent) for showers and thunderstorms through Friday evening. The upper low over Minnesota will slowly move southeast toward the western Great Lakes through Friday. Friday Evening/overnight: Upper low will translate southeastward across northwestern Illinois into the Ohio Valley. This weekend: Ridging builds over the four corners region on Friday bringing a primarily northwest flow regime to the area. The main sensible weather focus looks to be seasonably hot and humid conditions both days, with highs in the 80s and heat indices approaching the lower 90s.
224 PM EDT Thu Aug 1 2024 High pressure in the Atlantic and a trough across the Southeast will prevail through the weekend. Temperatures are rising into the low to mid 90s with dew points in the mid 70s range. Tonight: Under the H5 ridge, isolated convection may gradually decrease during the overnight hours. A mid-level trough will approach from the Great Lakes Region and OH/TN Valleys Friday into Friday night.
1236 PM CDT Thu Aug 1 2024 (Today through Friday) Dry weather is expected to continue through the short term period as an upper-level ridge remains in place over the Southern Plains. The spatial and temporal coverage of the higher heat index values looks to remain too low to warrant a Heat Advisory.
1229 PM CDT Thu Aug 1 2024 *** Aviation Update *** - Cooler and drier air move into the region today behind the departing storm system. - We will start to gradually warm back up this weekend as an upper level ridge strengthens across the western United States and gradually slides into the High Plains.
Current satellite imagery shows mainly clear skies aside from a few diurnal cumulus mainly over the High Plains where moisture is a little better. A slight increase in strength of this high will help to advect in improved low-level moisture tonight, forming a fairly sharp dryline somewhere in the vicinity of a Cheyenne to Wheatland to Chadron line. Model guidance shows a vort-max moving over the top of the ridge and passing over our area around peak heating Friday, which should give enough of a boost to kick off isolated thunderstorms over the dry-line during the afternoon hours.
105 PM MDT Thu Aug 1 2024 A strong upper level ridge over the region will keep conditions hot and dry through Friday night. Winds are expected to remain light, so despite the high temps and low moisture, there are currently no particular additional concerns for fires.
(This evening through Friday Night) Tranquil but hot conditions expected to prevail across Southeast Texas through the end of the work week as high pressure dominates the local weather pattern. The highs will be in the mid to upper 90s for areas near and north of I-10 and in the low to mid 90s closer to the coasts.
(Tonight through Friday night) The subtropical ridge remains in place over the southern part of the country this afternoon and will dominate through the short term period. In the low levels the flow is generally from the southeast. Temperatures range from the upper 80s to middle 90s and dewpoints from the middle 60s to the lower 70s. The upper ridge will suppress any convection tonight.
402 PM EDT Thu Aug 1 2024 High pressure in the Atlantic and an inland trough will prevail through early weekend.
244 PM CDT Thu Aug 1 2024 - A few storms in the far northeast into the late afternoon, otherwise clearing and cooler tonight. A decent mid summer upper low is progressing southeast through Minnesota this afternoon and heading for northeast Iowa. An associated cold front has cleared the forecast area with northwest surface winds and cold advection across central Iowa. Scattered showers and a few storms have developed in vicinity of this upper low during the afternoon where some mid level instability is helping to sustain the activity. Otherwise, the cumulus field over portions of the forecast area should gradually diminish into the overnight with mostly clear skies and cooler temperatures. Surface ridging slides toward the state on Friday with generally decent conditions in the area with a dry airmass and seasonal temperatures if not slightly warm.
1121 AM MDT Thu Aug 1 2024 - Scattered thunderstorms emanating from the Colorado Front Range and Cheyenne Ridge will track southeastward into northeast Colorado and adjacent Kansas and Nebraska border areas Friday evening (~6p-12a).
Hot and muggy conditions will continue as the area remains of the eastern periphery of an upper ridge centered across the southern plains. At the sfc, ridging over our area tonight will weaken and get pushed a little to the south and out over the Gulf on Friday.
Issued by National Weather Service Hastings NE 245 PM CDT Thu Aug 1 2024 - Calm conditions with highs in the low 90s are expected into the start of the weekend.
Low temperatures overnight will be in the low to mid 70s. Though with the lower moisture expected through the first half of the day, will hold off on an Advisory to a later shift and more model runs.
While the upper ridge axis has retrograded some today, a combination of mesoscale factors: low-level thermal ridge axis expanding across the area, pre-frontal compressional warming/"torching" and moisture pooling in vicinity of a weak front has promoted a corridor of >110-degree heat indices across western-central into northern Oklahoma. Friday will represent a transitional day of sensible impact, with a bifurcation of heat across the area (warmer south). Further north, a "cooler" afternoon (high temperatures in the upper-90s with lower humidity) is expected.
After collaboration, have remained somewhat conservative through this afternoon given the above noted challenges, as well as the main upper trough will be lagging and not really arrive until later this evening/overnight. Upper low will move across the area Friday into Friday night with what may end up the best chances for showers and thunderstorms (non-severe). With main focus on the next 24 to 48 hours, no real changes to later periods as sprawling upper level ridging takes hold across the southern half of the US.
Little change in the ridging both west and east of the Keys will result in conditions similar to yesterday. A Heat Advisory is also in effect until later this evening as forecast high temperatures in the lower 90s align with dewpoints in the upper 70s. From synopsis, gentle to moderate easterly breezes will persist through the next couple of days as high pressure over the North Atlantic builds westward across Florida and the Gulf. This high will work in tandem with a disturbance currently centered over Puerto Rico to further tighten the pressure gradient, bumping breezes higher by the start of the weekend.
(Tonight) Temperatures have remained in the lower to mid 90s so far this afternoon. A couple of pre-frontal trough axes associated with upper level disturbances can be seen moving along it.
1017 AM CDT Thu Aug 1 2024 A 1021 mb ridge of high pressure located from the Appalachians back through the northern Gulf Coast will result in mainly rain free weather across the Mid-South this afternoon. Sufficient low- level moisture on the back side of the ridge has kept surface dewpoints high across the area this morning.
(This afternoon through Friday night) Not much change in the short term, as the upper ridge continues to dominate. WV imagery this afternoon shows the upper ridge extending from the Four Corners area southeast through the ArklaTex, and centered over northeast New Mexico and the panhandles. Friday, the ridge shifts more towards the Four Corners, but the southeast tail of the ridge could shift warmer temperatures east, despite decreasing thicknesses. Unfortunately, w/the forecast trajectory of the ridge, CAMs are pretty much bone dry for these parts Friday afternoon/evening. Friday night, the LLJ is forecast to be a little more extensive than tonight, but about the same strength, yielding overnight lows a degree or so warmer at best.
Though the threat for severe weather appears to be on the low end across western Nebraska, a few stronger storms cannot be ruled out. - Chances for precipitation increase by mid week, as the pattern supports cooler, wetter weather. A slight ridge is observed over north central Montana and the West Coast. At the surface, a low pressure system over central Wisconsin tracks a cold front across Missouri through southeast Kansas into Oklahoma. High pressure is observed over the northern Great Plains, with another cold front across western North Dakota into eastern Montana. In the post frontal regime and under the influence of the nearby high pressure, tonight remains dry with relatively calmer winds. An upper level ridge begins to establish itself this weekend, bringing the pattern back to a warmer, drier pattern.
This evening: GOES water vapor imagery showed a well-defined mid-level trough slowing spinning southeastward across the Upper MS Valley this afternoon. Despite relatively meager deep shear profiles beneath the trough, there may be sufficient instability/updraft intensity to get a few strong to marginally severe storms with hail and locally damaging downburst winds, especially across central Wisconsin. Similarly, beneath the upper trough, especially in areas where low-level CAPE/surface convergence/vorticity are maximized, could not completely rule out a funnel/brief tornado, particularly with any stronger, growing updrafts. As the trough slowly slides south and east overnight, showers/storms will diminish, but clouds will be slow to clear, possibly lingering into Friday morning, especially across southwest Wisconsin.
The main culprit is an upper-level high over TX, with a ridge axis extending into the Intermountain West. As a trough over MN moves southeast through the Midwest, the high will build toward the Four Corners region and strengthen into Friday.
1206 PM CDT Thu Aug 1 2024 (Today and tonight) Today will be a degree or two warmer for many areas in the FA. The overhead upper high is progged to strengthen to H600 before sunset, allowing highs to reach over the century mark once again. Given the strength of the upper high, storm propagation will be very limited.
Rain chances increase through the weekend as a mid- level trough stalls near the area.
- A few storms in the far northeast into the late afternoon, otherwise clearing and cooler tonight. A decent mid summer upper low is progressing southeast through Minnesota this afternoon and heading for northeast Iowa. An associated cold front has cleared the forecast area with northwest surface winds and cold advection across central Iowa. Scattered showers and a few storms have developed in vicinity of this upper low during the afternoon where some mid level instability is helping to sustain the activity. Otherwise, the cumulus field over portions of the forecast area should gradually diminish into the overnight with mostly clear skies and cooler temperatures. Surface ridging slides toward the state on Friday with generally decent conditions in the area with a dry airmass and seasonal temperatures if not slightly warm.
Issued by National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 621 PM CDT Thu Aug 1 2024 (Tonight through Friday night) Rain-free and seasonably hot temperatures will prevail through the short term period as Deep South Texas remains under the influence of high pressure.
/NEW/ /Tonight through Friday Night/ Hot and dry conditions will continue through Friday with little in the way of relief despite a weak cold front approaching the region. Forecast highs on Friday should top out between 104-107 in our northwest with temps in the 100-104 range in the Metroplex and areas to the south and east a little cooler.
648 PM CDT Thu Aug 1 2024 (Tonight through Friday night) The subtropical ridge remains in place over the southern part of the country this afternoon and will dominate through the short term period. In the low levels the flow is generally from the southeast. Temperatures range from the upper 80s to middle 90s and dewpoints from the middle 60s to the lower 70s. The upper ridge will suppress any convection tonight.
Warmer than average temperatures will continue through the forecast period. (This evening through Friday) A building ridge will be briefly interrupted by a transient plume of moisture and vorticity originating from the northern end of an easterly tropical wave that spawned tropical storm Carlotta yesterday. It seems the high PWAT is enough to overcome the dry low levels pretty effectively.
427 PM CDT Thu Aug 1 2024 (This afternoon through Friday night) Not much change in the short term, as the upper ridge continues to dominate. WV imagery this afternoon shows the upper ridge extending from the Four Corners area southeast through the ArklaTex, and centered over northeast New Mexico and the panhandles. Friday, the ridge shifts more towards the Four Corners, but the southeast tail of the ridge could shift warmer temperatures east, despite decreasing thicknesses. Unfortunately, w/the forecast trajectory of the ridge, CAMs are pretty much bone dry for these parts Friday afternoon/evening. Friday night, the LLJ is forecast to be a little more extensive than tonight, but about the same strength, yielding overnight lows a degree or so warmer at best.
Upper level ridge shifts westward for the weekend with N/NW flow aloft.
An area of low pressure over the northern part of Baja California is circulating moisture over Arizona today. The high pressure that has been centered over Texas is starting to reaching a position near the Four Corners.
Currently - A split surface through lower level Atlantic ridge stretches across the Florida Peninsula. Short Term Update - Atlantic ridging will remain the dominant player in Keys weather through the overnight period.
558 PM CDT Thu Aug 1 2024 - Calm conditions with highs in the low 90s are expected into the start of the weekend.