Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
An upper level low remains in place from the Great Lakes region into the central plains early this morning. As energy moves around the upper level low, scattered showers will continue to develop at times this morning into this afternoon. Cooler conditions will remain in place across the area today as highs only warm into the upper 70s to the lower 80s. Lows tonight into Monday morning will cool into the upper 50s to the lower 60s again. The upper level low will remain over the region early in the work week then will start to move off to the east later in the week as an upper level ridge builds east across the Plains. Highs in the upper 70s to the lower 80s will occur across the area again on Monday.
(Today and tonight) Upper troughing remains situated through the southern Plains with the western Atlantic ridge nosing across the Florida peninsula into the eastern Gulf. Highs today will be in the low 90s with lows tonight in the mid 70s.
Limited movement of an upper level ridge to our west will bring another day with warm and unstable air today. A slight shift in the western ridge could bring a backdoor cold front from east to west on Monday.
With lower coverage of convection, less cloud cover overnight would mean slightly cooler low temperatures in the mid to upper 60s with a few areas staying in the low 70s. (Sunday through Monday night) The overall pattern will remain fairly stagnant thru the remainder of the weekend and into the new work week, as a broad upper trough pattern drops more into the SE region. High pressure entrenched across the southern Atlantic will also maintain an influx of Gulf moisture out of the S/SW.
High precip chances will also remain as all ingredients are still there along with the stalled upper trough.
Temperatures will hold in the lower and middle 70s. The forecast area will remain between mid level ridging over the Atlantic and fairly broad troughing to the west. At the surface, high pressure resides offshore, with a weak trough inland. High temperatures will average in the low to mid 90s with heat indices peaking 100-105F in most locations, with some 105-108 values closer to the coast. The offshore ridge looks to expand westward across the area midweek, before likely weakening late week as a trough passes by to the north.
104 AM EDT Sun Jul 21 2024 A cold front will cross the region overnight into Sunday. High pressure will build over the area Sunday night into Monday.
pdf Very subtle change in the pattern today with models trying to inject some slightly drier airmass aloft around the high pressure ridge axis from the south, but doubt this slight tweak will make much of a difference as the SW steering flow pattern at the lower levels and PWATs still close to 2 inches will still lead to numerous to widespread showers and storms during the afternoon and evening hours. Overnight lows in the lower to middle 70s over inland areas and upper 70s at the Atlantic beaches.
102 AM CDT Sun Jul 21 2024 (This evening through Sunday) Western Central Texas will be wedged between a high pressure off to the west and a trough across the eastern Plains.
1111 PM EDT Sat Jul 20 2024 Heaviest band of showers ended up forming a little further north than forecast, sparing the I-4 corridor of the highest rainfall accumulations. Winds are forecast to freshen slightly to SE 10-15 KT through the middle of the week as high pressure strengthens to our north and east.
The low level air mass behind this boundary has moistened considerably, with dewpoints rising into the 60s in Yavapai/Gila and well into the 50s for the Mogollon Rim and Flagstaff areas. Meanwhile, the the center of the strong ridge that has caused our hot weather continues to slide west of the state.
A weak cold front will drop into Se Mi from the north on Sunday. The main feature of note with the next little impulse of height falls is the ribbon of concentrated moisture along the lower tropospheric front settling south across the Northern Great Lakes region today. The instability axis will rotate cyclonically and recenter over interior portions of the Lower Peninsula. Greatest CAPE depth looks to exist across the Saginaw Valley south to along and west of the glacial ridge.
The remnants of high pressure at the surface and ridging aloft keeping an overall dry airmass across central Indiana. A slow moving upper level low over the Missouri Valley this morning will pivot east into the region by early Monday. low level thermals are supportive of highs rising into the low and mid 80s.
High pressure building in keeps warm temperatures around. The western US high pressure has shifted slightly westward for today. Temperatures are also similar, if not a few degrees cooler. For the coming workweek, the high pressure builds back east. This brings some warmer temperatures and less rain chances, though it still looks like some isolated (15%-20%) afternoon convection occurs. When it comes to smoke, the HRRR shows the highest smoke concentrations over western Wyoming today, which thins this evening and overnight.
(Today through Monday Night) An upper level high pressure is over the western U. with an upper trough over the Great Lakes and extending through the central and eastern U. A short wave trough will bring an increase in moisture and rain chances to the north today and will be more widespread during the afternoon and evening. Rain chances increase on Monday as the warm front enters the state. Lows tonight will be in the lower 60s to lower 70s and in the mid 60s to lower 70s Monday night.
312 AM CDT Sun Jul 21 2024 - Temperatures will trend warmer each day through the weekend; however, they will remain below normal for the next 7 days.
High pressure centered overhead will result in persistent above-average temperatures through much of the week.
233 AM MDT Sun Jul 21 2024 - Gusty showers possible today across southeast Wyoming and western Nebraska with much cooler temperatures expected.
An upper trough remains situated across the central part of the country with the eastern periphery serving to reduce upper heights in our area. This combined with a remnant cold frontal boundary is supporting scattered showers and storms that again will likely linger into tonight. Lows tonight fall into the lower 70s F with highs tomorrow not dissimilar from what we've seen today, topping out in the upper 80s F to near 90 F areawide.
Currently have upper low pressure situated over central IA with north/northwest flow remaining over the Plains. At the surface, a weak inverted trough extends from southwest TX into central OK. This is in an area of 850-700mb moisture transport and ahead of a weak mid level trough. Will maintain some small pops this afternoon across mainly southeast KS which will be closer to the upper low, which will be sinking into northern MO today. Upper low will start to get sheared out as it tracks into the Ohio Valley late tonight into Mon morning. By Tue morning, upper trough is expected to stretch from the Ohio Valley down into central/eastern TX. Meanwhile, Western CONUS upper ridge will start to build east which will also help to dry things out. By Wed we are looking for highs back into the low and mid 90s.
314 AM EDT Sun Jul 21 2024 Quiet, dry weather is expected for a large portion of the region under high pressure through Sunday.
114 AM EDT Sun Jul 21 2024 Quiet, dry weather is expected for a large portion of the region under high pressure through Sunday.
126 AM EDT Sun Jul 21 2024 High pressure overhead will gradually weaken through Sunday with southwest flow aloft becomes more active after Monday.
Along with the persistent upper trough from southeastern NM to the Great Lakes, shower and thunderstorm chances will exist today, largely following the progress of the front.
1133 PM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024 - Cooler than normal temperatures continue through the new week.
1236 AM CDT Sun Jul 21 2024 (This evening through Monday) Early afternoon water vapor satellite imagery showed a broad trough over the central CONtinental United States (CONUS). While the waveform of the large trough changes characteristics over the next 7 days, for all intents and purposes it doesn't really move much with respect to Arkansas, setting the tone for the entire forecast package.
1044 PM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024 - Temperatures will trend warmer each day through the weekend; however, they will remain below normal for the next 7 days.
Water vapor shows upper ridge across the Intermountain West northward into the Canadian Rockies with several weak impulses dropping through the area.
(Today and tonight) The synoptic pattern still remains more or less unchanged from the past several days with broad cyclonic flow aloft over the eastern CONUS and an upper ridge centered over the Great Basin. Even so, still think that blended guidance is a bit too agressive with PoPs given relatively weak large scale forcing, and have kept the higher PoPs focused along the TX/NM state line with only SChc mention retained for most areas off the Caprock. More humid easterly surface flow should keep temperatures a bit cooler today compared to yesterday with highs in the mid 80s to low 90s, with lows mainly in the mid 60s tonight.
305 AM EDT Sun Jul 21 2024 High pressure will gradually weaken through tonight with southwest flow aloft becoming more active after Monday.
(Tonight through Monday) The quasi-stationary front has drifted northward, leaving all of Central Alabama in the high low level moisture zone. Left chance pops in the remainder of the night for areas near and south of the trough, slight chance northwest. A more southwest flow aloft will develop over the area tonight as an upper low develops over the Midwest while persistent ridging amplifies further over much of the Intermountain West. Low temperatures will range from the upper 60s far north and far northeast to the low 70s south and west. Broad troughing will persist in the mid levels just to our west over much of the Mid-South and Central Plains on Sunday. Highs will range from the low 80s in the higher elevations north and east to the upper 80s far south and west.
Heaviest band of showers ended up forming a little further north than forecast, sparing the I-4 corridor of the highest rainfall accumulations. Winds are forecast to freshen slightly to SE 10-15 KT through the middle of the week as high pressure strengthens to our north and east.
Generally expect the typical summertime pattern to persist as upper ridging continues aloft while the surface Bermuda high pressure ridge axis stretching over the GA/FL line and into the N Gulf. The Western Atlantic high pressure ridge is expected to remain in place over the region with fairly typical summertime conditions through the upcoming week.
356 AM CDT Sun Jul 21 2024 - An extended stretch of cooler-than-average temperatures will continue today before increasing through the week. - Scattered showers are possible Sunday and Monday before drier weather builds in alongside the warmer temps. The upper pattern continues to be dominated by an amplified ridge over the Rockies and trofing over the Great Lakes with a cutoff low spinning over Iowa. Current temperatures are in the lower to mid-60s, only about 10-15 degrees cooler than today's notably cool afternoon highs.
Low temperatures will be in the lower 70s. The Synoptic scale pattern remains largely unchanged today with a trough to the north and west and a ridge to our south and east. Latest guidance suggests that there will be a higher rain threat this evening across the northern Midlands and the highest PoPs of the day are in this area. Skies then become partly to mostly cloudy with lows in the lower to mid 70s. In addition a weak upper level trough over the Upper Mississippi River Valley will rotate weak disturbances in a southwest flow aloft and enhance diurnal convective activity.
144 AM EDT Sun Jul 21 2024 High pressure extending across the lower Great Lakes will weaken on Sunday. Meanwhile, mid level troughing will dig ever so slowly to the east/southeast into the middle Mississippi River Valley. Highs will be similar to today, mainly in the lower to mid 80s. Some embedded s/wv energy rippling through the mean mid level trough will combine with the deeper moisture to bring at least a chance of showers and storms to the southern half of the CWFA. Lows will be in the lower to mid 60s.
Then, for Monday, the ridge axis will slowly begin to shift east, bringing hotter and drier conditions for midweek.
151 AM CDT Sun Jul 21 2024 (Tonight through Monday) The quasi-stationary front has drifted northward, leaving all of Central Alabama in the high low level moisture zone. Left chance pops in the remainder of the night for areas near and south of the trough, slight chance northwest. A more southwest flow aloft will develop over the area tonight as an upper low develops over the Midwest while persistent ridging amplifies further over much of the Intermountain West. Low temperatures will range from the upper 60s far north and far northeast to the low 70s south and west. Broad troughing will persist in the mid levels just to our west over much of the Mid-South and Central Plains on Sunday. Highs will range from the low 80s in the higher elevations north and east to the upper 80s far south and west.
Water vapour matinee had upper ridge from the southwest CONUS into southwest Canada. Forecast concern revolves around upper ridge.
High pressure starts to ridge across the northeast Gulf of Mexico overnight as weakness develops aloft.
229 AM PDT Sun Jul 21 2024 Cooler temperatures today before we ramp back up to widespread triple digits Mon-Wed.
- By mid week, the pattern sets up for a warmer and dryer pattern. With a return of warmer and dryer conditions fully setting in by late week, concerns for fire weather conditions may increase. Upper air analysis and satellite imagery show an upper level disturbance over central Iowa and a high amplitude ridge over the western United States. The ridge extends into northern Alberta and northern Saskatchewan. At the surface, high pressure is observed over the Great Plains. The near surface smoke is mostly expected across portions of the Nebraska Panhandle, whereas the vertically integrated plume (smoke aloft) is stronger over the Sandhills and the Highway 83 corridor. As the week progresses, the upper level ridge is expected to establish a bit more over portions of western Nebraska. Spaghetti plots are in fairly consistent agreement on a ridge breakdown late week.
Surface cold front is dropping south across the Adirondacks. Cooler and drier air will filter in on northwest flow behind the front this evening and overnight, allowing temperatures fall to lows in the upper 40s to low 50s in high terrain and mid 50s to low 60s at lower elevations.
528 AM EDT Sun Jul 21 2024 Quiet, dry weather is expected for a large portion of the region today under high pressure.
Temperatures as of 9 AM are in the low to mid 80s with dew points in the upper 70s. The highest chances (50 percent) will occur from around the Orlando area west and northward, where the higher PW values are forecast. Afternoon highs will be in the low to mid 90s with peak heat indices between 103-107 degrees.
619 AM EDT Sun Jul 21 2024 A cold front will exit the region today. High pressure will build over the area Sunday night into Monday.
532 AM CDT Sun Jul 21 2024 - Temperatures will trend warmer each day through the weekend; however, they will remain below normal for the next 7 days.
Highs will range in the 80's and perhaps some upper 70's in the northwest where precipitation and scatted clouds should limit afternoon temperatures from getting warmer. Thunderstorms this evening have a very low chance of becoming severe due to the limited instability forecast alongside relatively cooler temperatures at the surface. Tomorrow, 1-3 km Theta-E values show a reduction after the trough moves through on Sunday, but they will recover by afternoon hours. The next round of thunderstorms may begin in early afternoon hours and last trough the evening.
947 AM EDT Sun Jul 21 2024 High pressure will gradually weaken through tonight before southwest flow aloft becomes more active after Monday.
649 AM EDT Sun Jul 21 2024 Weakening high pressure will remain across the region for one more day. An inverted trough across Kentucky may sharpen a bit as a weak disturbance moves across the region. Lows tonight will be in the lower to mid 60s with highs on Monday generally in the lower 80s.
- By mid week, the pattern sets up for a warmer and dryer pattern. With a return of warmer and dryer conditions fully setting in by late week, concerns for fire weather conditions may increase. The near surface smoke is mostly expected across portions of the Nebraska Panhandle, whereas the vertically integrated plume (smoke aloft) is stronger over the Sandhills and the Highway 83 corridor. As the week progresses, the upper level ridge is expected to establish a bit more over portions of western Nebraska. Spaghetti plots are in fairly consistent agreement on a ridge breakdown late week. Daytime cumulus will likely envelope both terminals with CIGs remaining in the low-end VFR category.
529 AM MDT Sun Jul 21 2024 - Gusty showers possible today across southeast Wyoming and western Nebraska with much cooler temperatures expected.
Early this morning, a surface frontal boundary was located over the Big Country while an upper-level trough was over the Midwest. The cold front will move southward to the Hill Country today while an impulse will move around the base of the upper-level trough. Otherwise, the increased cloud cover and rain chances today should result in high temperatures reaching the low to mid 90s, followed by lows tonight in the 70s.
631 AM CDT Sun Jul 21 2024 (Today and tonight) The synoptic pattern still remains more or less unchanged from the past several days with broad cyclonic flow aloft over the eastern CONUS and an upper ridge centered over the Great Basin. Even so, still think that blended guidance is a bit too agressive with PoPs given relatively weak large scale forcing, and have kept the higher PoPs focused along the TX/NM state line with only SChc mention retained for most areas off the Caprock. More humid easterly surface flow should keep temperatures a bit cooler today compared to yesterday with highs in the mid 80s to low 90s, with lows mainly in the mid 60s tonight.
620 AM EDT Sun Jul 21 2024 (Today and tonight) Upper troughing remains situated through the southern Plains with the western Atlantic ridge nosing across the Florida peninsula into the eastern Gulf. Highs today will be in the low 90s with lows tonight in the mid 70s.
833 AM EDT Sun Jul 21 2024 Quiet, dry weather is expected for a large portion of the region today under high pressure.
(Rest of Today) A generally unsettled wx pattern will continue across the central TN Valley thru the afternoon hrs this Sun, as a broad upper trough axis drops southward into the Mid South region and a weak frontal boundary located over mid TN SW into the lower MS Valley drifts SE into NW AL.
744 AM EDT Sun Jul 21 2024 Generally expect the typical summertime pattern to persist as upper ridging continues aloft while the surface Bermuda high pressure ridge axis stretching over the GA/FL line and into the N Gulf. The Western Atlantic high pressure ridge is expected to remain in place over the region with fairly typical summertime conditions through the upcoming week.
533 AM CDT Sun Jul 21 2024 (Today through Monday afternoon) WV imagery shows the upper ridge has amplified/narrowed as a Pacific trough approaches the west coast this morning, and is centered over the junction of CA/CA/NV, while to the east, a trough digs through the MS Valley.
Key Message(s): - Low clouds this morning give way to partly cloudy skies - Scattered showers and thunderstorms along with the potential for locally heavy rainfall continue The Synoptic scale pattern remains largely unchanged today with a trough to the north and west and a ridge to our south and east. Latest guidance suggests that there will be a higher rain threat this evening across the northern Midlands and the highest PoPs of the period are in this area. Skies then become partly to mostly cloudy with lows in the lower to mid 70s. In addition a weak upper level trough over the Upper Mississippi River Valley will rotate weak disturbances in a southwest flow aloft and enhance diurnal convective activity.
619 AM EDT Sun Jul 21 2024 High pressure will gradually weaken through tonight with southwest flow aloft becoming more active after Monday.
630 AM CDT Sun Jul 21 2024 (Today through Monday) The mid-level ridge will remained anchored over the Great Basin region, as a 500mb trough continues to move over the Central U.
That will change today with the high retrograding to NW AZ with the steering flow becoming more NELY later this afternoon into this evening. This will allow storms that develop over the Mogollon Rim to White mountains to propagate S/SW into the lower deserts later this afternoon into this evening. The upcoming week will see daily chance of afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms will day-to-day variability on areal coverage of storms as storms propagate off the higher terrain.
Deep mean layer ridging remains entrenched across the Atlantic Ocean, however, the aforementioned tropical wave is embedded in the flow around the western periphery of the ridge and steering this wave right towards the Keys. From synopsis, atlantic ridging will extend westward across the Florida Peninsula and into the Gulf of Mexico through the next several days, with gentle to moderate east to southeast breezes prevailing across the Keys coastal waters.
655 AM CDT Sun Jul 21 2024 (Today through Monday Night) An upper level high pressure is over the western U. with an upper trough over the Great Lakes and extending through the central and eastern U. A short wave trough will bring an increase in moisture and rain chances to the north today and will be more widespread during the afternoon and evening. Rain chances increase on Monday as the warm front enters the state. Lows tonight will be in the lower 60s to lower 70s and in the mid 60s to lower 70s Monday night.
711 AM EDT Sun Jul 21 2024 Quiet, dry weather is expected for a large portion of the region today under high pressure.
555 AM CDT Sun Jul 21 2024 - An extended stretch of cooler-than-average temperatures will continue today before increasing through the week. - Scattered showers are possible Sunday and Monday before drier weather builds in alongside the warmer temps. The upper pattern continues to be dominated by an amplified ridge over the Rockies and trofing over the Great Lakes with a cutoff low spinning over Iowa. Current temperatures are in the lower to mid-60s, only about 10-15 degrees cooler than today's notably cool afternoon highs.
759 AM EDT Sun Jul 21 2024 A cold front will exit the region today. High pressure will build over the area Sunday night into Monday.
1237 PM PDT Sun Jul 21 2024 Cooler temperatures today before we ramp back up to widespread triple digits Mon-Wed.
The highest winds will be focused at the coastal terminals this afternoon with sustained speeds around 10-12 kts. Temperatures as of 9 AM are in the low to mid 80s with dew points in the upper 70s. The highest chances (50 percent) will occur from around the Orlando area west and northward, where the higher PW values are forecast. Afternoon highs will be in the low to mid 90s with peak heat indices between 103-107 degrees.
KBYX radar shows widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms with most of the activity to the west of the Lower Keys to the Dry Tortugas with another area across the eastern distant Straits of Florida. Since the Keys are still out ahead of the tropical wave, we are still feeling some impact from the deep mean layer ridge over the Atlantic resulting in easterly breezes near 15 knots with Island Chain communities observing 10 to 15 mph. Thereafter, the dominant subtropical ridge that has been in place across the Atlantic builds back into the Keys.