Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A low pressure storm system will lift from the Central Plains to the Great Lakes by this time tomorrow. The system continues to lift and trek to the east and northeast with time, as high pressure fills in its wake. With a zonal flow, there is no exceptionally "cold" airmass incoming with the high, so max temperatures will actually rebound into the lower 70s tmrw as things clear out. We go a little more northerly with the flow around the high early in the work week, so nighttime temps cool down to the 40s and the diurnal rebound yields a returns highs in the 60s, but they still run seasonal or even a little above seasonal norms leading to our next chance of pcpn incoming by mid week.
Strong high pressure New England will build south through the Carolinas into Georgia into Sunday. Scattered light rain or drizzle expected Sunday with cooler temperatures.
1014 AM MST Sat Nov 9 2024 - Upper low will bring widespread precipitation to much of western South Dakota and parts of northeastern Wyoming today through this evening.
The highest PoPs will be favored in our western areas through 00z. The clouds/rain will keep temperatures at bay, with temperatures not budging a whole lot -- and peaking in the lower 70s in most locations.
1134 AM CST Sat Nov 9 2024 (Today through Sunday Night) The cold front has made it through the majority of SE Texas and is currently on a SW-NE orientation from the Gulf Waters through Liberty County. Lows for tonight and Sunday night will be cooler courtesy of continued northerly flow. Sunday should feature partly cloudy skies and slightly warmer temperatures as highs get into the upper 70s to mid 80s.
(Tonight) It'll continue to be muggy and cloudy tonight as a surface cold front approaches and moisture from Tropical Storm Rafael (currently over the west-central Gulf of Mexico) is advected up through the ArkLaMiss region and into the Tennessee Valley.
159 PM MST Sat Nov 9 2024 - Mainly warmer and dry conditions for most areas through the weekend. Brief ridging continues over the region today, keeping conditions mild and dry. An upper level low over Nebraska is bringing precipitation right along the southeast MT border.
(This evening through Sunday Night) A dynamic heavy rainfall event is ongoing across north-central Louisiana this afternoon as an axis of deeply rooted gulf moisture along a stalled frontal boundary and lifting warm front, supported by additional moisture availability from TC Rafael in the central GoM, has resulted in a flash flood threat.
/EC/ The stalled boundary has drifted southward and now sits around the Highway 84 corridor.
PoPs will rise after midnight to night as the upper ridge axis moves east and deeper moisture spreads in from the west. Discussion: In the upper levels, the ridge over the Southeast will remain in place today. A trough will move into the Mid and Lower Mississippi Valleys tonight as a closed low spins near MN/IA. At the surface, high pressure will remain over the East Coast as a frontal system stalls near West Tennessee with an occluded front stretching to the vertically stacked low moving from the Great Plains into the Upper Midwest. Highs will be above normal again today in the lower to mid 70s. HREF 850mb winds keeps the low level jet west of the mountains and shows about 30 knots near the mountains from a southerly or southwesterly direction.
1119 AM CST Sat Nov 9 2024 (Today through Sunday) The most recent surface analysis from the Weather Prediction Center indicates a cold front over the southeast corner of Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley, with isolated showers noted across the BRO CWFA on KBRO Doppler radar. Some additional isolated convection remains possible through today as the front transitions into the western Gulf of Mexico, with dry weather on tap tonight and through Sunday as the front becomes more stationary but weak 500 mb ridging nudges in from the south. Swell from Tropical Cyclone Rafael will continue to approach the Lower Texas Coast through the weekend.
1201 PM CST Sat Nov 9 2024 (Today through Sunday Night) To begin the period, an upper level low is located across Rockies and moving into the Central Plains.
/Issued 1200 PM CST Sat Nov 9 2024/ /Through Sunday Afternoon/ Yesterday's cold front and the departure of the upper trough has left behind mostly clear skies and much drier conditions. High temperatures today will remain in the upper 60s to lower 70s with tomorrow expected to be about 5 degrees warmer. /NEW/ /Sunday Night Onward/ Pleasant and dry conditions are expected as we go into the upcoming work week as broad upper level ridging generally remains planted across the Southern Plains.
226 PM EST Sat Nov 9 2024 High pressure will move offshore late tonight as a warm front approaches from the Ohio River Valley. The warm front will lift across the area Sunday night as low pressure moves from the Upper Midwest to the Great Lakes and southeastern Canada.
With upper ridging in control, very pleasant conditions are foreast through the remainder of the week.
1059 AM CST Sat Nov 9 2024 Updated at 1059 AM CST Sat Nov 9 2024 - Quiet weather ahead with near to warmer than normal temperatures through the forecast period. Expect sunny skies and warmer temperatures today. The upper level low currently situated north of our region will push northeastward towards the Great Lakes region bringing zonal flow aloft by the end of the day.
(Tonight-Sunday morning) A vertically-stacked and occluded low pressure system was located over southwest NE early this afternoon, with an occluded front trailing to its east and then south down into the Ozarks and a cold front extending south into the ArkLaTex. A warm front was draped west to east from west-central AR into the Southeast. The low will continue to lift slowly northeast while the occluded/cold front advances slowly east/southeast over the next couple of days. Surface dewpoints, still higher across WC/NW AR, will just slowly drop tonight into Sunday, especially along the lower Ark River Valley. As a result, as clouds clear out from west to east into tonight, radiational cooling is likely to result in some fog development over W AR, with some dense fog possible along the lower Ark River Valley.
Cold front will push east Sunday, and rain chances will also increase and push east during the afternoon hours.
Deep layer ridging holds steady over the Keys with little to no change in heights in this morning's KKEY balloon sounding. Temperatures across the island chain are in the lower 80s with somewhat mild dewpoints in the lower 70s. As this high strengthens, breezes across our CWA will increase becoming fresh yet remaining out of the northeast to east. While this would usually be a good mechanism for promoting shower formation with increased low level lift, bone dry observed in the lower to mid levels of the atmosphere from both our sounding and CIMSS MIMIC PW upstream will keep PoPs at a slight chance for now. From synopsis, strong high pressure moving across the Great Lakes region will settle into the Northeast U.
Early afternoon satellite imagery shows a H5 ridge axis of high pressure situated directly over ERN Idaho which is continuing to lead to clear skies, light winds, above normal temperatures, and dry conditions. Increasing clouds will move into our region this evening through the overnight hours as a split H5 trough moves onshore from the NE Pacific to the PacNW and NRN Rockies. This trough will track east throughout the day on Sunday over the NRN Rockies with widespread cloud cover and isolated rain/snow showers further north with best chances in the CNTRL Mountains and ERN Highlands along the Montana/Wyoming border regions.
/NEW/ /Through Sunday Afternoon/ Yesterday's cold front and the departure of the upper trough has left behind mostly clear skies and much drier conditions. High temperatures today will remain in the upper 60s to lower 70s with tomorrow expected to be about 5 degrees warmer. This tropical cyclone will maintain predominantly offshore flow heading into the workweek, preventing noteworthy moisture return.
This low will track to the east northeast tonight, but will only reach north central Iowa by Sunday morning.
Temperatures have not changed much from this morning as highs reach into the mid 80s with somewhat pleasant dewpoints in the lower 70s. While this will encourage some speed convergence to provide a source of lift for convection, the large layer of dry air in the lower to mid levels of the atmosphere (observed in both KKEY and KMFL's soundings) will continue to limit showers to shallow at best.
Cooler temperatures tomorrow under cloudy skies, but still above normal. Aloft, a large ridge remains across the southern Appalachians that has kept precip to our west so far and skies over East TN mostly sunny, although a few light showers in an area of weak isentropic lift are beginning to reach our SW counties. Through the night, the ridge will shift east and allow for increasing clouds and isentropic lift, mainly in our western sections.
The storm system that brought snow to the mountains and rain to the lowlands and swept colder air into the region is well to our north and heading away from us. We will have a cold start to the morning today, with most locations at or below freezing; the one exception will be the El Paso metro area where we will see low temperatures a few degrees above freezing.
A cold front is currently across the central portion of the US. The cold front out west will also slowly drop southeast during the day Sunday into Sunday night, bringing higher chances for rain to the NW portions of the state.
155 PM CST Sat Nov 9 2024 - Rain chances/light drizzle will slowly taper off into the evening hours as the upper level low across south central Nebraska lifts northeast and away from the region.
(Tonight through Sunday night) An upper level trough has lifted into the central Great Plains and the flow over Texas is from the southwest. At the surface, the cold front has moved out into the Gulf, and high pressure is settling over the region. A cooler and much drier airmass is moving in. Temperatures are mostly cooler and dewpoints 25 to 30 degrees lower than 24 hours ago.
318 PM EST Sat Nov 9 2024 High pressure will build south of the area tonight.
Updated at 218 PM CST Sat Nov 9 2024 - Quiet weather ahead with near to warmer than normal temperatures through the forecast period. (This evening through Sunday) As an upper low continues to move eastward across the Central Plains we will see upper level ridging move overhead locally through Sunday afternoon. This will bring even warmer temperatures for Sunday rising above seasonal averages.
225 PM EST Sat Nov 9 2024 In the wake of the exiting back-door cold front, high pressure will build into the area from the north.
/61/ Previous short-term discussion: (Today through Sunday) High pressure will move east of the Appalachians today, with a low pressure over the northern plains bringing a frontal boundary towards the MS River Valley. East to southeasterly flow will prevail in the low and mid levels around this high pressure, with plenty of moisture advection to the state through the short term. Overnight tonight, a mid level jet will move through the state as the high pressure weakens and moves off the east coast. Temperatures will be hovering between 60 and 80 between the highs and lows through Sunday, with values well above normal for this time of year.
Dampened ridging was building into the SW Conus early this afternoon as an occluded cyclone was slowly ejecting through the central plains while strong jet energy and a pinched trough approached the west coast.
Impressive mature/occluded cyclone was near the Kansas/Nebraska border at midday, with the midlevel and surface cyclones near McCook, Nebraska. Wraparound stratocumulus will continue to diminish through this afternoon as the cyclone exits through Nebraska.
Ridging along the east coast of the US will continue through our weekend. This will result in temperatures warmer then average in the upper 80's each afternoon.
1236 PM EST Sat Nov 9 2024 Strong high pressure New England will build south through the Carolinas into Georgia into Sunday. Scattered light rain or drizzle expected Sunday with cooler temperatures.
247 PM EST Sat Nov 9 2024 In the wake of the exiting back-door cold front, high pressure will build into the area from the north.
258 PM EST Sat Nov 9 2024 High pressure will give way to a cold frontal passage with some showers by Sunday night.
This will mainly only affect the higher terrain of Inyo and Esmeralda counties, where high elevation smoke intersects the mountains.
549 PM CST Sat Nov 9 2024 (This evening through Sunday) A stalled frontal boundary remains draped across southern Alabama and Georgia, which will be moving back to the north as a warm front shortly. With enough breaks in the clouds at times, high temperatures will top out in the lower 80s across the southern half of the CWA, with 70s across the north. Overcast skies will continue overnight tonight, with some cooler overnight lows expected over the eastern counties behind the wedge front. More widespread cloud cover will provide cooler high temperatures mainly in the 70s.
405 PM EST Sat Nov 9 2024 Low pressure tracking through the region will bring rain tonight and continue through Sunday. The area dries out for the first part of the work week as a large area of high pressure builds across the Great Lakes.
Dry and quiet weather will continue Sunday as high pressure slides east.
655 PM CST Sat Nov 9 2024 (This evening through Sunday Night) A dynamic heavy rainfall event is ongoing across north-central Louisiana this afternoon as an axis of deeply rooted gulf moisture along a stalled frontal boundary and lifting warm front, supported by additional moisture availability from TC Rafael in the central GoM, has resulted in a flash flood threat.
Amounts remain very light per observations thanks to dry air and the occluded nature of this low. This low will track to the east northeast tonight, but will only reach north central Iowa by Sunday morning.
- Slightly warmer Sunday with weak downslope flow continuing.
542 PM CST Sat Nov 9 2024 (Tonight-Sunday morning) A vertically-stacked and occluded low pressure system was located over southwest NE early this afternoon, with an occluded front trailing to its east and then south down into the Ozarks and a cold front extending south into the ArkLaTex. A warm front was draped west to east from west-central AR into the Southeast. The low will continue to lift slowly northeast while the occluded/cold front advances slowly east/southeast over the next couple of days. Surface dewpoints, still higher across WC/NW AR, will just slowly drop tonight into Sunday, especially along the lower Ark River Valley. As a result, as clouds clear out from west to east into tonight, radiational cooling is likely to result in some fog development over W AR, with some dense fog possible along the lower Ark River Valley.
537 PM CST Sat Nov 9 2024 Updated at 516 PM CST Sat Nov 9 2024 - Quiet weather ahead with near to warmer than normal temperatures through the forecast period. (This evening through Sunday) As an upper low continues to move eastward across the Central Plains we will see upper level ridging move overhead locally through Sunday afternoon. This will bring even warmer temperatures for Sunday rising above seasonal averages.
526 PM EST Sat Nov 9 2024 High pressure will give way to a cold frontal passage with some showers by Sunday night.
(Now through Sunday) The upper ridge over the eastern CONUS will shift eastward as a potent deep low pressure system over Nebraska lifts east-northeast across the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes regions. Lows tonight and Sunday night will range in the mid to upper 60s over interior communities and around 70 degrees to the lower 70s along the coast.
(Tonight through Sunday) An occluded/vertically stacked mid-latitude cyclone remains centered over Nebraska this evening, with occluded and cold fronts extending southward to East Texas. A warm front extends eastward from a triple point in northwest Arkansas to northwest Alabama, which becomes a wedge front just moving into Cherokee County. At upper-levels Central Alabama remains under moist southwest flow aloft between troughing over the central CONUS and strong subtropical ridging off of the Florida Atlantic coast. The better focus will not come until Sunday night as the cold front approaches from the northwest.
Active pattern continues with a shift towards cooler temps and increased moisture. Overnight, expect building coastal fog along with pockets of drizzle as the warm sector ahead of the next cold front builds into the area.
Additional showers and storms will develop ahead of the cold front and move through during the afternoon and evening. Cold front will push east Sunday, and rain chances will also increase and push east during the afternoon hours.
506 PM MST Sat Nov 9 2024 - Mainly warmer and dry conditions for most areas through the weekend. Upper low over NE continues to drift to the northeast, and any light precip that may have eked its way into the far southeast corner of MT has exited. JKL Brief ridging continues over the region today, keeping conditions mild and dry. An upper level low over Nebraska is bringing precipitation right along the southeast MT border.
525 PM CST Sat Nov 9 2024 (Tonight through Sunday night) An upper level trough has lifted into the central Great Plains and the flow over Texas is from the southwest. At the surface, the cold front has moved out into the Gulf, and high pressure is settling over the region. A cooler and much drier airmass is moving in. Temperatures are mostly cooler and dewpoints 25 to 30 degrees lower than 24 hours ago.
548 PM CST Sat Nov 9 2024 - Rain chances/light drizzle will slowly taper off into the evening hours as the upper level low across south central Nebraska lifts northeast and away from the region.
Through Sunday Night: Through Sunday night: A vertically stacked low pressure system continues to lift into the Upper Midwest this afternoon with an occluding frontal boundary stretching from southern MN southward across the Mississippi River Valley. However, there is still the chance (20-40%) for scattered showers to develop Sunday afternoon mainly for areas north of I-88 as the low passes to our north.
524 PM EST Sat Nov 9 2024 High pressure will build south of the area tonight.
Strong high pressure over New England will build south through the Carolinas into Georgia on Sunday. Scattered light rain or drizzle expected Sunday with cooler temperatures.
/NEW/ /Through Sunday Evening/ Subsidence in the wake of yesterday's departing upper low and the passage of a Pacific front has brought cool, dry, and tranquil weather for the weekend. /Issued 132 PM CST Sat Nov 9 2024/ /Sunday Night Onward/ Pleasant and dry conditions are expected as we go into the upcoming work week as broad upper level ridging generally remains planted across the Southern Plains.
- A cold front moves through overnight into early Monday with slightly cooler temperatures expected Monday and Monday night before highs in the 50s and lows in the mid 30s return through the end of the period.
245 AM EST Sun Nov 10 2024 High pressure moves off the mid-Atlantic coast today as a front tracks in from the west.
Vertically-stacked low pressure continues to develop over the Central Plains early this morning. as a large area of strong high pressure continues to push eastward off the Atlantic Coast. Deep/vertically-stacked low pressure will slowly lift NE out of the Central Plains this morning and into the Western Great Lakes region this afternoon. and low level temps remaining well above freezing will keep any chances of snow mixing with the rain at bay. High temps this afternoon will again warm into the low to mid 50s.
- Trending a bit cooler tomorrow with northerly winds and highs in the mid 40s north to mid 50s south.
Most of the area will remain dry through a majority of today until an upper trough axis crosses the MS River valley late this afternoon into tonight. PoPs will increase from west to east late this afternoon into early this evening as a weakening cold front associated with the trough arrives. Cloud cover will keep high temperatures in the upper 60s east to the lower 70s central and west this afternoon.
Cooler temperatures today under cloudy skies, but still above normal. A widespread wetting rain expected tonight ahead of a cold front. Discussion: In the upper levels, a closed low is moving through the Great Lakes today and tonight bringing a trough to the region. At the surface, the low is vertically stacked with the upper low. The associated cold front will not move through the region until Monday but the best chance for rain will be tonight ahead of this system. With cloud cover in place today, highs will be cooler than yesterday in the upper 60s. The East Tennessee Mountains and foothills could see gusts up to 45 mph in the highest elevations and most downslope prone areas this morning.
1016 PM CST Sat Nov 9 2024 (Tonight through Sunday night) An upper level trough has lifted into the central Great Plains and the flow over Texas is from the southwest. At the surface, the cold front has moved out into the Gulf, and high pressure is settling over the region. A cooler and much drier airmass is moving in. Temperatures are mostly cooler and dewpoints 25 to 30 degrees lower than 24 hours ago.
The upper pattern is forecast to have low amplitude ridging over the area with moisture pulling out of the area and staying more to the north.
1104 PM CST Sat Nov 9 2024 Updated at 1049 PM CST Sat Nov 9 2024 - Quiet weather ahead with near to warmer than normal temperatures through the forecast period. (This evening through Sunday) As an upper low continues to move eastward across the Central Plains we will see upper level ridging move overhead locally through Sunday afternoon. This will bring even warmer temperatures for Sunday rising above seasonal averages.
159 AM EST Sun Nov 10 2024 Widespread rain will return this morning with low pressure, with highest probabilities in the afternoon.
Short wave upper trough and associated surface cold front off the northwest coast this evening will come inland Sunday and weaken the surface-based inversion, especially in our northern zones. The cold front and upper trough will also weaken but will still support 80-90 percent PoP in the north. The Air Stagnation Advisory was cancelled this afternoon in northern zones but will continue in southern zones until 5 AM MST Monday when a stronger Pacific trough approaches. Air Stagnation Advisory was cancelled this afternoon in northern areas but will continue in the south until 5 AM MST when a Pacific trough comes inland. The trough and tightening surface pressure gradient will improve circulation and mixing on Monday. A more significant trough will move into the region on Monday afternoon, bringing cooler temperatures and widespread precipitation anticipated.
1207 AM EST Sun Nov 10 2024 (Rest of today through Sunday) A breezy easterly to southeasterly wind flow will continue through the weekend as South Florida sits on the periphery of high pressure centered over the mid-Atlantic United States. A pocket of drier air accompanying a ridge of high pressure aloft will help limit the depth of convection which should remain isolated Atlantic showers that survive ashore. Temperatures along the Atlantic coast should remain in the lower to mid 80s but additional sunshine helping to warm the easterly airmass as it traverses the peninsula will allow Southwest Florida to warm into the mid to upper 80s each afternoon.
Even the areas that do see some precip, won't see more than a few hundredths of QPF at best, so perhaps a light dusting of snow across some of the highest terrain. Despite the clouds, we'll still see temperatures warm into the 50s across much of the lower valleys today with 40s likely across the high country. This feature will depart to the east on Monday and clouds should begin to clear out somewhat during the morning and early afternoon, albeit briefly, as a much stronger upper level trough will dip into the Pacific NW.