Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
But despite the low level moisture advection ahead of the dryline which has mixed E into NW AR/SE OK/N TX, temps and the attendant heat indices have yet to reach Heat Advisory criteria across the region as of 1930Z, but have opted to leave the Advisory as is until its 00Z expiration as some localized areas may still near criteria on this holiday weekend. Have expanded slight chance/low chance pops over much of the area, with the higher pops over Srn AR/N LA. Weak cool advection and a clear sky should yield slightly cooler temps along/NW of the I-30 corridor, but will have to await for weak sfc ridging building in from the NW to help reinforce the weak front S into Cntrl LA/more of E TX Monday before it slows again.
Drier air coming in from the west will allow dewpoints to drop into the 50s by late today, setting us up for a pleasantly cooler night. Notable upper level troughing lingers over the Great Lakes and Upper Midwest through Tuesday night, keeping deeper moisture bottled up to our north. Ridging builds east across the MS and OH Valleys through late week, resulting in a stretch of pleasant weather.
Ridge axis will build across the Intermountain West today with hieghts climbing across the region.
256 AM EDT Mon May 27 2024 Showers and storms through Memorial Day in response to a cold front.
There is a risk of strong to severe thunderstorms from this evening until the cold front passes Monday evening.
Cooler and showery conditions will continue across western Washington today as a frontal system brushes the region. Upper level ridging will then gradually begin to build east of the area Monday, allowing for temperatures to warm. Upper level troughing over the northeastern Pacific will continue to influence Washington, with the next frontal system poised to move across the region on Tuesday. Drier and warmer conditions will be possible late in the week as upper ridging builds offshore.
Current IR depicts mainly clear skies across the CWA with some streaking upper level clouds spilling over a building ridge through the Pacific Northwest. This ridge will continue to strengthen through mid week with increasing convergence aloft.
A ridge of high pressure will continue to build over the Northern Rockies today, rounding out the holiday weekend with dry weather and daytime high temperatures just slightly above normal. Expect 70s today for the valleys of western Montana, and 80s for the lower Salmon River valley as the ridge axis sits over western Montana this afternoon. On Tuesday, the ridge continues to amplify and shift eastward as a trough of low pressure deepens over the West Coast, putting the Northern Rockies under moist southwesterly flow.
This stacked ridging will keep warm and dry conditions in place, with temperatures climbing into the mid to upper 90s over the interior, and low to mid 90s along the coast.
This line of storms will show an eastward motion but the additional storms along the lower end of the front will keep areas farther south toward I-40 in the primary risk area into the early morning hours. The NQA-generated hodograph indicates strong cyclonic curvature in the lowest 2 km with 0-1 km SRH of 338 m2/s2, which is quite strong and favorable for low-level mesocyclones.
Thereafter, an amplifying upper ridge over the Rockies will bring dry conditions to the region for Memorial Day and continuing into Tuesday. By Tuesday night, high pressure building down through the Great Lakes will set up southerly flow and start to bring moisture back into the area along with some isentropic lift. Highs today will range form the lower 70s near the SD border to the upper 70s heading south toward KS, and readings Tuesday will be a couple of degrees warmer.
Another deeper wave can be noted in north central Montana which will move off to the south of our area overnight with a cold front trailing later in the day from the north associated with an upper low in Ontario. Unanimous agreement among models on ridging in the northern plains for the mid week behind tomorrows cold front helping us dry out for a few days, which will be much needed and help all this excess water finally soak in and move through the river basins. The drier pattern will also allow us to be a bit warmer than recent with highs in the 60s and 70s beyond Tuesday.
Cold front to push through much of the region today bringing lower dewpoints areawide. Otherwise, the remainder of the region should experience high temperatures inn the lower to middle 90s. Otherwise, mainly dry conditions to prevail with lows ranging from the mid 60s across the lower 70s.
Meanwhile, weak upper ridging exists over the Great Basin.
410 AM EDT Mon May 27 2024 A cold front will move through the region today.
829 PM PDT Sun May 26 2024 Warmer today as a warming trend kicks off through the week. Given greater insolation this afternoon it has led to warmer temperatures even with onshore flow. 24 hour trends show many spots running 2 to 6 degrees warmer this afternoon. The low clouds over the coastal waters will spread along the coast and locally inland again.
(Today through Tuesday) Very warm and moist conditions prevail across Central Alabama this morning with surface temperatures in the middle to upper 70s and surface dewpoints in the lower 70s. The models continue to show a weakening trend as the activity encounters the northern periphery of the upper ridge, and there is likely a warm nose around 850mb. The front will not contain cooler temperatures, but winds will become westerly and dewpoints will drop into the lower to middle 60s. Drier air will overspread all of central Alabama tonight and winds will become calm, which will allow temperatures to fall into the lower and middle 60s north and upper 60s south by Tuesday morning.
Recent CAM runs suggest forcing along cold front, now approaching from eastern Kansas and central Oklahoma, will be required to initiate convection.
423 AM EDT Mon May 27 2024 A cold front will move through the region today.
Memorial Day will be dry all around with plenty of sunshine as stronger ridging returns to the area. There will be a chance of some afternoon convection, however, as the ridge begins to break down and available moisture increases. By Tuesday night guidance is showing a stronger trough pushing into the northwestern US.
332 AM EDT Mon May 27 2024 Low pressure will track to our northwest today through Tuesday.
308 AM EDT Mon May 27 2024 Showers and storms through Memorial Day in response to a cold front.
1123 PM MDT Sun May 26 2024 -Showers and isolated thunderstorms through this evening -Warmer and drier this week with thunderstorms returning for the second half of the week Main band of showers and thunderstorms is starting to exit far eastern portions of the forecast area right now, with isolated to widely scattered showers/thundershowers now developing over northeast WY with a secondary disturbance passing over eastern MT/far northeast WY. Upper trough will continue to move across the region this evening, supporting scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. Ridging will then prevail for the first part of the week, with warmer conds and dry weather. However, the next upper trough will push into the Rockies by mid week as long trajectory southerly flow allows LL moisture return along the plains adjacent to the Rockies, supporting unsettled conds through the end of the week.
At the same time, heights will build in from the west, as an upper ridge builds into western Montana. Otherwise, with the ridge building up, expect a mostly sunny sky today, with less wind and warmer temperatures. Highs today will be in the lower 70s. The ridge building in from the west will raise heights across the entire area today, tonight and Tuesday. Expect abundant sunshine and warmer temperatures on Tuesday.
A slight cooling trend with increased afternoon breezes prevail through mid-week as a trough swings into the Pacific Northwest. High pressure returns for the weekend, allowing temperatures to climb well above average. * We see a slight shift in the pattern on Tuesday as an upper trough moves into the Pacific Northwest.
Byrd Upper level ridge will build over the western CONUS while troughing lingers over the eastern half.
1239 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024 (This evening through Monday night) Northerly winds continue to gust this afternoon behind the early morning cold frontal passage. Look for these winds to slowly die down this evening as models begin to see an upper-level ridge build over the Panhandles. This ridge will keep weather rather benign for what remains of today with afternoon temperatures only in the mid to upper 80s. Heading into Monday, weather looks to start very quiet for the Panhandles with afternoon high temperatures rising into the low 90s for the holiday. This set up will allow for flow at the lower and mid levels to shift to a more southerly and/or southeasterly direction, which will begin to funnel moisture into the Panhandles.
The system which brought a cold front along with a few rounds of storms through the region yesterday evening into this morning has since continued off towards the east. For the Memorial Day holiday, pleasant weather remains forecast as a ridge of high pressure builds in, giving mostly sunny skies, light west-northwesterly winds, and high temperatures in the middle 70s to middle 80s. While the upper ridge moves over the Rockies on Tuesday, an embedded disturbance will move through from the southwest, introducing slight chance to chance PoPs by afternoon, continuing into the evening and overnight period. The upper ridge will move over the Plains mid- week, and an upper trough will enter the western CONUS.
Immediate term rain: 19z WV satellite shows an upper trough shifting eastward over the MS River with a broad area of moist fetch east of this feature wrapping over N WI. By early mid-week model guidance continues to highlight upper level troughs over the Pacific Northwest and Great Lakes with an upper level ridge building into the central U. However, the upper level ridge will continue to get pushed eastward as the upper level trough moves into the region over the weekend, bringing back shower and storm chances to the forecast. There remain some uncertainties in timing of this precip, with noted differences in details such as the strength of the trough among ensemble solutions.
CAPE values will top out at 500 - 1000 J/kg, with the higher end of that threshold only expected if some clearing is able to occur later this morning. Although instability is expected to be low, the high low level shear values are a concern, as this can lead to an isolated tornado or two from a relatively low-topped thunderstorm or even convective shower. Upper trough swings in overhead on Tuesday and more showers and thunderstorms are likely to develop during the late morning to early afternoon.
(Rest of Today) Rain has tapered off across the Tennessee Valley in wake of the cold frontal passage -- and with that the threat for severe weather has come to an end.
Interesting is that northeast of the upper low an area of rain showers increased in coverage after midnight and this is where an area of widespread rainfall with a pocket of over one half inch southwest of Grand Forks at NDAWN stations near Northwood. This upper low and associated showers to move southeast this morning. Cooler today with highs in the 60s.
From synopsis, high pressure over the western North Atlantic will maintain light to gentle southeast to south breezes through Tuesday.
Temperatures will be slightly cooler over the northern Big Country north of a weak frontal boundary.
416 AM MDT Mon May 27 2024 - Dry and warmer today and Tuesday - Thunderstorms return for the last half of the week.
High pressure will continue to work its way into the area through the first half of the week. A substantial warming and drying trend will accompany this high, pushing temperatures 5 to 10 degrees above normal by Tuesday.
Warmer today as a warming trend continues through the week. A few locations in the interior have the potential to be a couple of degrees warmer. Summer time ridge pattern in full effect to round out the holiday weekend.
653 AM EDT Mon May 27 2024 A cold front will move through the region today.
An upper level ridge will begin to build to the east of the area today, while upper level troughing over the northeastern Pacific continues to influence western Washington. This will bring warmer temperatures to the area today, but will allow for some light showers to continue along the coast. Drier and warmer conditions will be possible late in the week as upper ridging builds offshore.
758 AM EDT Mon May 27 2024 (Today through Tuesday) The mid-lvl ridge will remain in place over SFL this Memorial Day, maintaining hot and largely dry conditions over the area. The ridge will break down on Tuesday as troughing shifts into the eastern CONUS while a cold front will move into northern Florida (and then largely stall for the mid-week period). Given increasing synoptic ascent of the trough, and the seasonably hot and unstable airmass south of the front, increased convective activity relative to Monday is expected with scattered to even perhaps numerous showers and thunderstorms.
523 AM MDT Mon May 27 2024 - Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible over the San Juan Mountains this afternoon with mostly dry and warmer conditions area wide. - Drier and warmer conditions expected this week with temperatures warming to five to ten degrees above normal by mid week. - Precipitation chances remain low through most of the week with any storm activity favoring the high terrain during the afternoon period. A mid-level high pressure ridge develops over the Rockies today ahead of a trough over the eastern Pacific. As the eastern Pacific trough approaches the West Coast on Tuesday the ridge axis is forced east of the Continental Divide by late afternoon. The warming trend continues early this week with readings near or a couple of degrees warmer than normal today with around 5 degrees of additional warming on Tuesday.
320 AM MDT Mon May 27 2024 - Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible over the San Juan Mountains this afternoon with mostly dry and warmer conditions area wide. - Drier and warmer conditions expected this week with temperatures warming to five to ten degrees above normal by mid week. - Precipitation chances remain low through most of the week with any storm activity favoring the high terrain during the afternoon period. A mid-level high pressure ridge develops over the Rockies today ahead of a trough over the eastern Pacific. As the eastern Pacific trough approaches the West Coast on Tuesday the ridge axis is forced east of the Continental Divide by late afternoon. The warming trend continues early this week with readings near or a couple of degrees warmer than normal today with around 5 degrees of additional warming on Tuesday.
206 AM PDT Mon May 27 2024 Warming trend continues today across the forecast area as high pressure builds.
320 AM MST Mon May 27 2024 Hotter temperatures are expected across the lower deserts today with highs peaking in the high 90s to lower 100s, or around 5 degrees above average. Latest IR WV imagery reveals a low amplitude ridge centered over the western CONUS. This ridging pattern will continue to build today with 500 mb hghts rising to around 583-585 dam over southeast CA and southcentral AZ. In response, warmer temperatures are anticipated with highs reaching the upper 90s to around 103 degrees across the lower deserts. On Tuesday, the aforementioned ridge over the western U. Chances of 105+ degrees remain around 30-70% across the lower deserts on Tuesday afternoon.
1004 AM EDT Mon May 27 2024 A cold front will move through the region today.
654 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024 (Today through Tuesday) Very warm and moist conditions prevail across Central Alabama this morning with surface temperatures in the middle to upper 70s and surface dewpoints in the lower 70s. The models continue to show a weakening trend as the activity encounters the northern periphery of the upper ridge, and there is likely a warm nose around 850mb. The front will not contain cooler temperatures, but winds will become westerly and dewpoints will drop into the lower to middle 60s. Drier air will overspread all of central Alabama tonight and winds will become calm, which will allow temperatures to fall into the lower and middle 60s north and upper 60s south by Tuesday morning.
High temperatures will be warm and summer-like today inland due to an upper level ridge that has remained over over the Western US during our holiday weekend.
A surface cold front appear to be located from central KY through Middle TN, and will track E-SE through the day. CAMS suggest some isolated to scattered showers popping up this afternoon with the passage of the surface cold front, mainly east of I-75.
The weather feature for today will be the low(5-10%) chance of cloud to ground lightning in Lake County and a small section of Siskiyou County near Mt Eddy. Other than thunderstorms, it will be a warmer Spring day with highs pushing into the mid 80's here in the Rogue Valley and temperatures trending about 10 degrees higher compared to yesterday. The same concerns persist into Tuesday as the upper level trough moves closer to the coast. Eventually, the upper level trough will progress through the forecast area on Tuesday night with a cold front following up the trough passage.
Weak zonal flow aloft and above average hghts will continue through this week, with an amplifying ridge possible late in the period. Winds will be light in the overnight hours and generally southwest 10-20 mph each afternoon, especially at the higher elevations.
The Santa Cruz Ice will break in Tucson this week with the Tucson airport having a good shot at it occurring today, despite the low 17% chance by the 25/01z NBM.
Dry high pressure will hold across the region today with southwest to west flow in place. The southwest to west winds will keep coastal areas slightly cooler in the upper 80s to around 90, while inland locations will once again climb into the middle and upper 90s with a couple of record highs possible. This stacked ridging will keep warm and dry conditions in place, with temperatures climbing into the mid to upper 90s over the interior, and low to mid 90s along the coast.
324 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024 Through Tuesday: For the late afternoon to early evening, the main concerns will be heat stress, especially across southern portions of the area, and also for a continued marginal risk south of the Highway 84 corridor. During the overnight, expect fair weather conditions with slightly cooler low temperatures. The pattern will be one dominated by upper level troughing across the area keeping a boundary across our west/southwest and heavily contributing to the lingering precip chances. Over the course of the period we can expect to see a continuation of the H5 ridge building over the Southern Plains. This will lead to increased northwesterly flow, with a slightly drier and cooler airmass moving in bringing high temperatures in the low to high 80s by midweek.
(This afternoon through Tuesday) The center of a mid-level ridge will spread over South Florida today, maintaining the hot and largely dry conditions over the area. The main story today will be the high temperatures, which will likely approach daily records, reaching the mid to even upper 90s (with any low 90s likely confined to the immediate coast). The ridge will break down on Tuesday as troughing shifts into the eastern CONUS, while a cold front will move into northern Florida (and then largely stall for the mid-week period). Given increasing synoptic ascent of the trough, and the seasonably hot and unstable airmass south of the front, increased convective activity is expected with scattered to even perhaps numerous showers and thunderstorms.
239 PM EDT Mon May 27 2024 A cold front will move through the area tonight and some scattered strong-severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening, mainly south of I-20. More seasonable temperatures and drier conditions are expected behind the front through late week as high pressure area builds in from the upper Mississippi Valley. Most of our area remains weakly capped as of 18z behind this morning's MCS passage, with an approaching trough aloft and associated surface front heading in from the northwest. Upper level trough will be over the eastern US through the short term with high pressure and drier air building in behind the front.
1146 AM MDT Mon May 27 2024 - Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible over the San Juan Mountains this afternoon with mostly dry and warmer conditions area wide. - Drier and warmer conditions expected this week with temperatures warming to five to ten degrees above normal by mid week. - Precipitation chances remain low through most of the week with any storm activity favoring the high terrain during the afternoon period. A mid-level high pressure ridge develops over the Rockies today ahead of a trough over the eastern Pacific. As the eastern Pacific trough approaches the West Coast on Tuesday the ridge axis is forced east of the Continental Divide by late afternoon. The warming trend continues early this week with readings near or a couple of degrees warmer than normal today with around 5 degrees of additional warming on Tuesday.
Otherwise, relatively light winds and seas are expected, and a weak upper trough will bring some slight (10-25%) chances for showers north of Cape Blanco on Tuesday.
High temperatures today will be in the mid 80s in the north to the lower 90s in the south. Tuesday will have high pressure and mostly clear skies with northerly flow bringing plenty of dry air to the state.
Southwesterly winds 5 to 10 knots, a bit stronger near the coast, diminish and switch to a light northwesterly flow tonight as a cold front moves through. Shear values remain on the low side, with 0-3 km bulk shear of typically 20-30 knots along with correspondingly low helicity values.
Included the mention of haze in parts of southern Mohave County due to proximity and southerly winds from the Refuge Wildfire located in the lower CRV, north of Yuma. Ridge axis will build across the Intermountain West today with heights climbing across the region.
Weak zonal flow aloft and above average heights will continue through this week, with an amplifying ridge possible late in the period. Winds will be light in the overnight hours and generally southwest 10-20 mph each afternoon, especially at the higher elevations.
115 PM MDT Mon May 27 2024 Mainly dry conditions can be expected through most of the short term forecast as an upper ridge builds in from the west over the region. Temperatures will approach 80 degrees for many areas on Tuesday as the ridge axis moves overhead.
Satellite imagery is showing clear skies across the region this morning as an upper ridge builds in from the coast. Today will be sunny, dry and around 10 degrees warmer than yesterday.
Despite that, temperatures will still remain well above normal, with highs climbing into the lower to mid 90s. Behind this trough, the upper level pattern will transition to more of a northwesterly flow tonight. Northwesterly flow should help bring in some slightly cooler temps and dewpoints to the region, but it will also keep rain chances across the area.
On Tuesday, the ridge of high pressure will continue to amplify and shift eastward as a trough of low pressure deepens over the West Coast.
A weak ridge of high pressure is beginning to build over the Great Basin and 4 Corners regions this afternoon. The ridge will gradually build and slide eastward toward the plains states over the coming days while a dry and generally zonal flow continues over Arizona. The pattern remains more active to our north with a couple more trough passages forecast later in the week, having little impact on northern Arizona other than fluctuating wind directions.
132 PM EDT Mon May 27 2024 A cold front will move through the region today.