Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
703 PM CDT Tue Jul 30 2024 - Heat impacts continue through sunset, with many spots seeing heat index values in the low to mid 90s. Southwesterly flow ahead of the main trough over the northern Rockies will continue tonight into tomorrow, with a transition to more northwesterly flow as the trough digs into the midwest later in the week.
643 PM CDT Tue Jul 30 2024 (Tonight through Wednesday night) Deep South Texas will remain under the influence of ridging aloft through the short term period, which will result in near normal temperatures for late July and mostly rain-free conditions. An enhanced pressure gradient along the Lower Texas Coast will result in breezy southeasterly winds tonight into tomorrow, with wind around 15-20 MPH and gusts up to 25 MPH.
753 PM EDT Tue Jul 30 2024 High pressure ridge will remain centered offshore through the week gradually building eastwards as the week continues.
702 PM MDT Tue Jul 30 2024 - Cooler on Wednesday behind a cold front, then hot again the rest of the week into the weekend.
High pressure then builds in for the second half of the work week and brings a return to dry and hot conditions. Overall, the previous fog forecast remains on track with valleys in southwestern Montana having the highest chance for fog development overnight. /ISSUED 509 PM MDT Tue Jul 30 2024/ A passing trough will continue to bring variable clouds, showers, and a few isolated thunderstorms through this evening. Ridging aloft builds in for the second half of the work week for a return to hot and dry conditions.
620 PM CDT Tue Jul 30 2024 (This evening through Wednesday) An upper-level ridge is evident over Texas on water vapor imagery this afternoon, along with a low near Maine and a trough in the northern Rockies. The ridge will remain the dominant synoptic feature over the CWA through the short term period.
Through daybreak expect debris cloudiness across most of the area which will keep overnight lows in the low to mid 70s. Ridging aloft will continue to strengthen as we move throughout the day Wednesday, with persistent northwest flow continuing some dry advection above 700mb. The drier air aloft and building ridge will yield well above average temps and heat indexes will push to around 105 F, near heat advisory criteria in many spots; confidence is still a bit too low for a heat advisory but one may be needed in the next forecast package.
This benign weather pattern is still on track to change beginning on Wednesday as a low pressure trough, currently over Idaho and Montana, shifts eastward allowing high pressure to build and strengthen over the West. We continue to keep our eye on a weak area of low pressure moving northward over the Baja Peninsula. At this time, much of the impact from this low looks to be confined to southern and central Arizona with higher chances and better coverage of showers and thunderstorms.
803 PM EDT Tue Jul 30 2024 - Low chance of storms through Wednesday night - Showers/storms Thu/Fri, hot and humid, then drier and a bit cooler - Low chance of storms through Wednesday night To start, we have a few isolated showers re-firing near/east of U. - Showers/storms Thu/Fri, hot and humid, then drier and a bit cooler Not much change to the going forecast.
535 PM MDT Tue Jul 30 2024 - Hot and dry weather continues, with critical fire weather conditions across the higher terrain today.
(The rest of tonight) Mid to upper level high pressure remains centered over the Southern Plains this evening allowing for a quiet night across the region. Bowlan (Tomorrow through Tuesday) High pressure remains centered over the southern plains for the next several days with dangerous heat expected to continue through the entire period.
Temperatures as of 10 PM are in the low to mid 80s with dew points in the mid to upper 70s. Overnight lows will be in the low to mid 70s with winds becoming light and variable. The Atlantic high builds back towards Florida over the next couple days with the ridge axis reaching the local Atlantic waters by Wednesday, then shifting north later in the week.
Highs are expected to range from the low to upper 90s, with a few locations out west reaching the low 100s.
(Today) High pressure remains stretched across the Southern Plains today along with the eastern periphery of the low level thermal ridge across Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas. This thunderstorm complex looks to make a run toward Northeast Oklahoma overnight tonight as the dome of high pressure begins to retrograde back to the northwest.
1215 AM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024 (The rest of tonight) Mid to upper level high pressure remains centered over the Southern Plains this evening allowing for a quiet night across the region.
(This evening through Wednesday) Generally a persistence forecast expected for the short term as an upper level ridge remains entrenched over much of Texas. Expect surface winds to increase slightly out of the south to southeast with a lee trough sitting over far west Texas.
1202 AM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024 (This evening through Wednesday) An upper-level ridge is evident over Texas on water vapor imagery this afternoon, along with a low near Maine and a trough in the northern Rockies. The ridge will remain the dominant synoptic feature over the CWA through the short term period.
1004 PM CDT Tue Jul 30 2024 (This afternoon through Wednesday night) Upper level ridge remains over the ArkLaTex for the short term and will amplify over the next day or two. The strengthening ridge in combination with southeast flow will keep lows tonight just above average in the mid 80s for most. Most notably the Pecos River Valley and across the Permian Basin will reach into the low 100s. Rain chances are existent particularly across the western higher terrain where the influence of the ridge is noticeably weaker.
/Issued 1203 AM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024/ /Through Wednesday Night/ Hot, humid and breezy weather will continue through the middle of the week with ridging aloft and surface lee troughing across the Central High Plains. /NEW/ /Thursday Onward/ August 2024 will begin on an uncomfortably hot note, with Thursday highs ranging from the mid 90s in the southeast to around 105 in the northwest beneath a strong mid level ridge.
In the upper levels, there is broad ridging over the southern CONUS with troughing in the Great Lakes and Northeast.
The upper high will remain in place though thicknesses will increase just slightly.
/NEW/ /Through Wednesday Night/ Hot, humid and breezy weather will continue through the middle of the week with ridging aloft and surface lee troughing across the Central High Plains.
Hot and dry conditions will return through Thursday Models are in firm agreement with the back end of the upper level trough exiting the area leaving some remnants of thunderstorms along the far eastern portion of Wallowa County. Models show an upper level ridge pushing its way back over the region beginning Wednesday bringing with it hot and dry conditions. Clusters are in agreement with the timing and positioning of the ridge as well as the amplitude. The amplitude of this ridge will steadily build over the region bringing temperatures back up to well above 90 degrees and 100s. Raw ensembles show 80-100% probabilities that the majority of the region will see high 90s to near 104 degrees through the Basin by Thursday when the ridge will be firmly overhead.
Otherwise, unseasonably hot/humid conditions will be the main wx impact later today, as a strong upper ridge pattern over the Plains states nudges further eastward into much of the region.
Thursday could see a few lingering showers and storms generally from the Twin Cities eastward as an upper level trough slowly drifts southeastward overhead.
(Today through Thursday) Upper ridge centered over east Texas early this morning. At the surface, high pressure was noted along the northern Gulf Coast. Ridging will remain over the area through Thursday, with any convection generally remaining isolated. If there is going to be a favored area, it would be along the Mississippi coast and the lower portions of the Louisiana coastal parishes.
- Slightly cooler temperatures late in the week into the weekend, though still above normal for this time of the year.
142 AM EDT Wed Jul 31 2024 High pressure centered over the Atlantic and an inland trough across the Southeast will persist as the setup through the week and into the weekend. Temperatures are on track to range in the low to mid 70s by daybreak.
143 AM MDT Wed Jul 31 2024 Currently, troughing over MT is bringing showers and isolated thunderstorms to SE MT. Building heights will continue into Thursday, giving way to warmer conditions. TS Synoptic pattern: Strong ridge of high pressure aloft pushes into the northern Great Basin Thursday and will persist into the weekend.
1024 PM CDT Tue Jul 30 2024 - Heat impacts continue through sunset, with many spots seeing heat index values in the low to mid 90s. Southwesterly flow ahead of the main trough over the northern Rockies will continue tonight into tomorrow, with a transition to more northwesterly flow as the trough digs into the midwest later in the week.
An upper level ridge is now centered over Texas. With the upper high on top of the area and 850mb temperatures warming 1 to 2 degrees across the area, expect to see afternoon temperatures also warm a few degrees. The high yesterday at both Abilene and San Angelo was 100 degrees. 850mb temperatures will be just a bit warmer across the Big Country, resulting in highs potentially as hot as 105 degrees. Dewpoints are expected to remain in the low to mid 60s through the afternoon hours, which will allow Heat Index values to warm to 105 to 107 degrees for parts of the Big Country, so will have a Heat Advisory this afternoon for that region. and Gulf of Mexico, and a persistent lee trough to our west and northwest.
(Today through Thursday afternoon) Not much change in the short term, as the upper ridge continues to dominate. WV imagery shows the upper ridge centered over east Texas this morning, a little farther northeast than 24 hours ago. Despite this, the ridge will strengthen sufficiently to increase thicknesses locally this afternoon, adding a degree or so to yesterday's highs, resulting in the warmest day this forecast as temperatures top out ~ 8-10 F above normal. Convection today will again be diurnally-driven, orographic activity over the higher terrain. Thursday, an upper trough digging into the Great Lakes region will nudge the upper ridge northwest, re-centering it over the panhandles. Despite this, thicknesses are forecast to come down a little, and highs will be close to today's, if not a degree or so cooler.
An upper level ridge will rebuild over the region with hot and smoky conditions returning for the remainder of the week.
In addition, the Atlantic Ridge is rebuilding back to the west and winds have gradually trending upward, which can also help with mass convergence. Otherwise, temperatures are currently sitting in the lower to mid 80s with dew points still clinging to the mid 70s. Looking at probabilistic guidance there is less than a 50 percent chance of exceeding 78 degree dew points, which what we really need when coupled with highs in the lower 90s to give heat index values near or greater than 108 degrees.
(Today through Thursday) South FL will remain under the influence of high pressure in the western Atlantic today and Thursday. Convection both days will be primarily sea-breeze driven, with the highest PoPs over the interior and over towards the Gulf coast during the afternoon and evening hours, and then overnight PoPs favoring the waters and along the east coast. High temps today and Thursday will be in the low to mid 90s. With the lower rain chances, there is a higher probability of reaching heat advisory criteria both days, with max heat indices ranging from 105-110 across the area.
(Today through Thursday) Upper level ridge is dominating the local area through the short term period. At the surface, ridging is also in place with a developing low pressure system across the Texas panhandle.
This evening and tonight, a perturbation within the mid level flow north of the ridge axis will move over Nebraska and Iowa, likely triggering another complex of storms northeast of the forecast area tonight. A surface boundary will then move into northern KS late Wednesday as a stronger mid level trough axis works across the Upper Midwest. The post-frontal air mass will still be hot, but slightly cooler, enough so to expire the current Excessive Heat Warning.
- Warm and dry conditions continue Wednesday with lighter winds and slightly warmer temperatures. An inverted trough over the Baja Peninsula gradually shifts north-northwestward over California carrying mid-level moisture to just south of the Four Corners region early Thursday. Meanwhile, the mid-level short wave trough moves from the northern Plains southeastward to the Ohio Valley which forces the high over the southern Plains to move over the forecast area.
Weak surface ridging remains across the peninsula this morning, while a weakness aloft extends down the E Seaboard over the state between areas of ridging centered over the S U.
(Today through Thursday) Deep South Texas is expected to remain under the influence of a mid- level ridge through the short term period, as such, temperatures are expected to remain slightly above seasonal and very low rain chances. An enhanced pressure gradient over the Lower Texas Coast will allow for breezy southeasterly winds today through the early evening with winds around 15-20 MPH with gusts up to 25 MPH.
High pressure will start to build on Wednesday and as a result, we will start to see showers and thunderstorms increase in coverage. This benign weather pattern is still on track to change beginning on Wednesday as a low pressure trough, currently over Idaho and Montana, shifts eastward allowing high pressure to build and strengthen over the West. We continue to keep our eye on a weak area of low pressure moving northward over the Baja Peninsula. At this time, much of the impact from this low looks to be confined to southern and central Arizona with higher chances and better coverage of showers and thunderstorms.
High pressure persist and heights will continue to slowly rise into Wednesday. A strong pressure at the surface gradient will prolong through the short term period in the southeastern half of the CWA, but should break down by Thursday as the upper level high begins to retreat back to the west. Heat index values may also exceed their actual temperature counterparts thanks to the higher dewpoints in eastern and southern Texas Panhandle. So even if the high temperature cannot meet 105 degrees, the lower to mid 60's in those areas will help raise heat indices above that 105 threshold. Convection should initiate off of the ridge both days, and favor motion within unstable areas.
with upper level ridge over the region. This upper ridge will continue to meander over the SRN CONUS over the coming days. which has helped in mixing out the highest moisture near the SFC for some areas.
A thermal ridge building into the region will bring high temperatures of 98 to 102 to much of southeast NE and southwest IA. Temperatures in the northern portion of the CWA will stay cooler (highs of 93 to 96) thanks to an incoming cold front. The aforementioned cold front will also play a role in tonight's severe weather potential. Convective initiation is expected along and just ahead of the cold front in east-central Nebraska during the mid afternoon before pushing east into the evening.
Slightly cooler air will begin to slide into northwestern zones today behind an advancing cold front.
All aboard the MCS express! Several waves of storms will continue through Thursday as we remain situated on the northern periphery of a strong upper ridge. Storms will clear from west to east by later this morning or early afternoon, though a warm front draped over central parts of the state may trigger additional development later this afternoon or evening depending on how quickly we destabilize. A brief period of upper ridging will provide some subsidence overhead, which should work to suppress any activity that may try to develop. A closed upper low will swing into the Upper Mississippi Valley later tonight, bringing better large-scale forcing. Storms are expected to initiate ahead of a cold front in the central Plains this evening and grow upscale as they are fed by a ~40 kt 850 mb LLJ nosing into Iowa/western IL.
High pressure then builds in for the second half of the work week and brings a return to dry and hot conditions. Overall, the previous fog forecast remains on track with valleys in southwestern Montana having the highest chance for fog development overnight. Winds will be mostly light and variable except for at the KCTB terminal due to an upper-level ridge moving over North-central, Central and Southwestern Montana. There is less than a 10% chance for fog Wednesday morning in the valleys of Southwestern Montana with the highest chance around the KWYS terminal. /ISSUED 509 PM MDT Tue Jul 30 2024/ A passing trough will continue to bring variable clouds, showers, and a few isolated thunderstorms through this evening. Ridging aloft builds in for the second half of the work week for a return to hot and dry conditions.
The low pressure system that brought widespread rain showers yesterday, has moved east of the Northern Rockies allowing for clearing skies across the region. A ridge of high pressure centered over the Great Basin will begin to amplify over the Northern Rockies today, and reach peak strength by the end of this week.
1233 AM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024 (Tonight through Wednesday night) Deep South Texas will remain under the influence of ridging aloft through the short term period, which will result in near normal temperatures for late July and mostly rain-free conditions. An enhanced pressure gradient along the Lower Texas Coast will result in breezy southeasterly winds tonight into tomorrow, with wind around 15-20 MPH and gusts up to 25 MPH. Highs on Thursday will range from the upper 80s along the Lower Texas beaches to around 100 degrees across the Rio Grande Plains.
347 AM EDT Wed Jul 31 2024 A frontal boundary and low pressure system will move through the area today with additional scattered showers and thunderstorms. High pressure provides a dry but hot Thursday.
113 AM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024 (This evening through Wednesday) Generally a persistence forecast expected for the short term as an upper level ridge remains entrenched over much of Texas. Expect surface winds to increase slightly out of the south to southeast with a lee trough sitting over far west Texas.
338 AM EDT Wed Jul 31 2024 A frontal boundary and low pressure system will move through the area today with additional scattered showers and thunderstorms. High pressure provides a dry but hot Thursday.
And helicity struggles upward into the lower 100s m2/s2, versus double or better that the last 2 events. The long wave trof that makes a week ending Ohio Valley passage will offer continued good chance pops even as the highest severe threat shifts eastward with the trof's axis. Convective chances peak in the afternoon and evening and offer the highest probability for restricted flight categories to be incurred, outside of patchy pre dawn fog potential.
159 AM MDT Wed Jul 31 2024 - Strong/severe storms possible today - Upper ridge returns for Thursday through the weekend with elevated fire weather conditions 07z surface analysis had cold front from central ND to eastern WY. Timing of cold front will be critical with regard to severe weather potential. Strong buoyancy/shear ahead of cold front, which could erupt into severe thunderstorms over south-central SD by midday. Temperatures will be tricky with position of cold front holding all the cards.
(Wednesday through Thursday) On Wednesday, the upr ridge will expand farther eastward into the OH/TN Valley regions. The same can be said for Thursday as the ridge and low-lvl temps increase perhaps a bit further ahead of a short wave beginning to dig into the Midwest from the norther. The expansion of the ridge will tend to encapsulate the region in a more westerly upr flow regime, more effectively pushing NW flow and chances for showers and thunderstorms mainly to our east. Due to uncertainty with the specific extension of the ridging and potential for outflows from convection, we have retained slight chance/chance POPs in the east for both days.
(Wednesday through Thursday) Heat headlines continue once again for this afternoon as high temperatures under a stout ridge will be similar to yesterday, ranging in the mid to upper 90's.
initially the main focus is on a mid/upper trough arriving through westerly flow today, with the mid level circulation on WV currently over Wyoming/Montana early this morning.
The better chances look to arrive late Wednesday through Thursday as an upper level trough moves out of the Northern Plains and towards Iowa. A warm nose in the lower levels will once again be acting against storms forming which limits confidence at this time. Steep mid level lapse rates could help with hail formation but the higher heights for the WBZ would lend itself to more of a damaging wind threat.
1141 PM CDT Tue Jul 30 2024 (This evening through Wednesday night) It's another hot one out there this afternoon with many areas averaging in the low to mid 90's. Showers are hard to find on radar thanks to strong mid-level ridging helping to suppress lift providing a warm thermal profile aloft.
131 AM EDT Wed Jul 31 2024 - Low chance of storms through Wednesday night - Showers/storms Thu/Fri, hot and humid, then drier and a bit cooler - Low chance of storms through Wednesday night To start, we have a few isolated showers re-firing near/east of U. - Showers/storms Thu/Fri, hot and humid, then drier and a bit cooler Not much change to the going forecast.
1222 AM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024 (Tonight through Wednesday night) 500mb ridging will remain in firm control over the short term period, with temperatures warming to near seasonal normals for the first time in over a week for South Central Texas.
556 AM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024 (Today) High pressure remains stretched across the Southern Plains today along with the eastern periphery of the low level thermal ridge across Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas. This thunderstorm complex looks to make a run toward Northeast Oklahoma overnight tonight as the dome of high pressure begins to retrograde back to the northwest.
Isolated showers and thunderstorms expected today across the High Country, and increasing coverage anticipated through the end of the week/over the weekend. The return of a more active monsoon pattern is underway as a high pressure system centered over Texas begins to push northwestward. There is a weak area of low-pressure across the southern portion of the California Baja Peninsula, but this will primarily impact central/southern Arizona with elevated moisture.
(Now through Thursday) The area will remain on the eastern periphery of an upper level ridge across the southern plains. A diurnal precip profile will continue with the highest POPs along the seabreeze and eastern zones where the influence of the upper ridge will be less. The high temps combined with dewpoints in the mid and upper 70s will lead to heat index values up to 112 in some locations.
As a trough departs eastward into the Plains, an upper level ridge will build over the Western U. Temperatures today will run up to 10 degrees warmer than yesterday's, with widespread daytime highs spanning the 80s and 60s and 70s in the higher terrain. A more noticeable, 5 to 10 degree increase is forecast for Thursday with high pressure allowing temperatures to warm into above normal territory, with 90s anticipated across the Snake Plain and Magic Valley.
346 AM MDT Wed Jul 31 2024 - Hot and dry weather continues, with elevated fire weather conditions across the higher terrain today into early this evening.