Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Early this morning a broad upper level trough was located east of the mid MS River valley. The extra tropical remnants of Beryl have phased with the upper trough. A mid level perturbation was located across the ND/SD border on the west side of the Mid MS River Valley upper level trough. A broad upper level ridge was located across the western US. An upper level ridge was located off the Southeast US coast over the western Pacific. If a few isolated storms do manage to develop there could be a few stronger storms, with gusty winds as forecast soundings show inverted V sounding profiles, but there is a chance that no thunderstorms develop as several CAMs show the PBL mixing up to 700mb with very weak CAPE, as dewpoints mix down into the lower 50s across the central and western counties.
1247 AM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024 - Rainfall associated with the remnants of Beryl will move off to the east - Fog to develop tonight as skies clear and winds become light - Return to warmer temperatures with highs tomorrow in the middle 80s warming well into the 90s this weekend Remaining rainfall over the eastern Ozarks will come to an end during the late afternoon as the remnants of Beryl exit into the Ohio Valley. A few showers and thunderstorms may possibly reform within an inverted trough containing higher dew points. Heights will climb through the latter half of the work week as the western upper ridge of high pressure flattens eastward. Patchy fog will develop through sunrise with the highest chances for MVFR reduction at BBG.
1238 AM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024 (This evening through Wednesday) A trough, which has more or less been parked directly overhead of the CWA for the last week, is creating dominant northwesterly flow. This, in combination with the northwesterly flow over Northern New Mexico has helped to fuel thunderstorm formation across the higher terrain of ERN NM.
218 AM EDT Wed Jul 10 2024 Hot and very humid weather will continue through tomorrow as tropical air continues to stream in from the south around Bermuda High Pressure. Weak low pressure developing across the Carolinas will bring increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms late in the week. Latest surface analysis shows Bermuda high pressure carrying a western extent back towards the Carolinas. A weak area of low pressure and stalled front over the central Carolinas will reintroduce unsettled weather for Thursday.
(Today through Thursday afternoon) While Texas is still in between two areas of upper level ridging, the ridge to our west has meandered closer to the Colorado Plateau inducing weak northerly flow aloft. Still, the ridge is far enough away to not suppress shower/storm development both today and Thursday afternoon. With enough displacement of the upper ridge center, high temperatures stay right around normal for early/mid July, topping out in the mid to upper 90s for most.
As an upper level ridge approaches the region from the west on Thursday, a warming trend will begin.
Ridging continues to be the dominating feature across Florida setting up a typical July pattern across the Keys. Easterly winds will prevail as the low level high remains nosed over Central Florida. Tomorrow, we see a return to more normal rain chances as the low level ridge bulges out into the Gulf.
127 AM EDT Wed Jul 10 2024 A cold front associated with the remnants of Beryl will usher in drier air today through Thursday.
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Upper ridging across the western U.
134 AM MDT Wed Jul 10 2024 Heights continue to rise w/ the building ridge over the northern Rockies, downstream of increasing Pacific flow into WA/BC. Easterly winds will keep conditions a bit "cooler" further east. so places like Miles City, Broadus & Baker should be several degrees warmer tomorrow than today. As for convection, today will be almost entirely dry but we could see a few weak t-storms over the mountains, including the Snowies, as a weak wave slides over the building ridge. JKL A strong upper ridge will keep daily high temperatures above 90 through the extended.
619 AM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024 (Today through Thursday afternoon) While Texas is still in between two areas of upper level ridging, the ridge to our west has meandered closer to the Colorado Plateau inducing weak northerly flow aloft. Still, the ridge is far enough away to not suppress shower/storm development both today and Thursday afternoon. With enough displacement of the upper ridge center, high temperatures stay right around normal for early/mid July, topping out in the mid to upper 90s for most.
Light winds will continue to allow morning lows to drop into the low to mid 70s.
405 AM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024 Today and tonight: Early morning water vapor imagery/RAP analysis had an upper level trough over the our region that will gradually shift east through tonight. Early morning surface analysis had a stalled frontal boundary just south of our southeast most zones and a center of high pressure over the central Plains. Afternoon highs are expected to top out in the lower 90s which is normal for this time of the year. This will allow temperatures to bottom out from the upper 60s northeast to the lower 70s elsewhere. As high pressure shifts east, 850/925 temps increase to the 22/27 range, which should result in temperatures generally in the upper 90s.
Lot cooler along the coast, where low clouds and fog will keep it in the 50s to middle 60s today. Overall, not much change through rest of the week, as high pressure will maintain dry condition, with warm temperatures inland.
High pressure in the North Atlantic will be shoved eastward by a trough moving across the Eastern Seaboard. From synopsis, gentle east to southeast breezes will prevail across the Florida Keys coastal waters through the rest of the work week, as high pressure remains in place from the Atlantic across the Florida peninsula and into the Gulf of Mexico.
While an upper high gradually shifts east through northern Arizona over the next few days, mean flow gradually turning from north to east will allow for richer moisture to filter into the region.
Some of these showers and thunderstorms could produce locally heavy downpours due to the high PWAT values. Given the high dew points heat index values will be around 105-110 today and around 105 tomorrow.
Any additional rain and cloud cover would work against higher max temps, but the low to mid 90s are still expected for many locations.
This cloud cover should keep daytime highs much cooler east of the I-65 corridor. Further west, more sunshine could allow temperatures to climb into the lower 90s. This helps to amplify the trough axis over the northeastern CONUS and bring even drier air in to the area through the weekend.
625 AM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024 Today and tonight: Early morning water vapor imagery/RAP analysis had an upper level trough over the our region that will gradually shift east through tonight. Early morning surface analysis had a stalled frontal boundary just south of our southeast most zones and a center of high pressure over the central Plains. Afternoon highs are expected to top out in the lower 90s which is normal for this time of the year. This will allow temperatures to bottom out from the upper 60s northeast to the lower 70s elsewhere. As high pressure shifts east, 850/925 temps increase to the 22/27 range, which should result in temperatures generally in the upper 90s.
High pressure continues promote excessive heat across portions of the state with highs in many valleys today and Thursday in the lower 100s.
(Rest of Today) Beryl, in its wake, has brought a "cooler" and drier air mass across the region today.
ACV wind profiler has not revealed much change in the depth yet with cooler air above 2kft compared to 24 hours ago. The most notable change in the low level profile has been the increase in northerly winds above 2kft. Sure enough, RAWS over the exposed ridges - mostly in zone 104 (SW Humboldt) - have been gusting to 25-35 mph through the night. Upper ridging will build today-Thu and the marine layer depth should decrease with less extensive and persistent stratus. Interior temperature will likely peak on Thu or Fri as 500mb ridging expands northwestward.
657 AM EDT Wed Jul 10 2024 (Today and tonight) Key Messages: 1) Cooler temperatures will be in place today 2) Breezy conditions to start off today, especially in the higher elevations. Discussion: Currently the cold front is working its way through the eastern Tennessee Valley and should be east of the southern Appalachian mountains later this morning. Bigger impacts from this front will be the cooler and drier conditions for the next couple of days as drier air moves into the region.
- Trending warmer Thursday into the weekend with times of showers and thunderstorms.
It does look like a slow moving weak wave will keep mid/high level clouds across a lot of the forecast area tonight, so there is now less confidence in the development of fog as high pressure builds in from the west. Highs tomorrow will be similar to today, with most places into the low 80s except for near Lake Michigan.
(This evening through Thursday) As a low pressure moves to the northeast through the Ohio Valley, a trailing area of low level clouds will move across the northeastern half of the area today and this evening. Otherwise, northerly flow will bring drier air to the state with heat indices in the low to mid 90s today and Thursday. A high pressure tries to develop to the west of Alabama and over the lower Mississippi River Valley, but this only continues the northerly flow and dry air advection.
Overnight, high pressure moves overhead with clearing skies and light winds leading to patchy dense fog by Thursday morning.
19Z water vapor imagery showed an upper low over the Great Lakes with ridging centered over the desert southwest. Surface obs showed a weak pattern with weak high pressure over the Great Plains. A trough of low pressure along the northern high plains was gradually deepening. Confidence in highs around 100 is improving as operational models show the upper ridge over the southwest expanding east over the central plains. As for headline concerns, the main question is whether dewpoints mix out into the lower 60s or possible the upper 50s. In the end this may keep heat indices a few degrees cooler and have hedged the forecast with dewpoints mixing out more. Precip chances look pretty slim with upper ridging and see no reason to deviate from the NBM initialization.
(This evening through Thursday night) High pressure continues to build over the region in the short term period. Therefore, rain rates are forecast to be on the higher end today, perhaps between 1-1.
On Thursday, an upper level ridge will remain centered across the western CONUS with an inverted trough across South Texas. Although an isolated shower or thunderstorm cannot be ruled out Thursday afternoon, mainly across our southeast counties closest to the aforementioned upper level trough, mainly dry conditions are forecast across the region.
Areas that haven't seen precipitation today have generally warmed into the upper 80s to mid 90s, but rainy areas have been in the lower and middle 80s.
(Tonight) As the remnants of Beryl continue to move over the northeastern portion of the country, the Tennessee Valley is less and less under its influence with high pressure taking over (both at the surface and aloft).
Extreme heat continues with no upstream trough coming to break the warming trend. Even Stanley only cools to 46 deg F, and perennial cold spot Copper Basin RAWS cools to only 44 deg F, not its usual below freezing.
The rest of the area will remain dry through the rest of the afternoon, with temperatures peaking in the low to mid 90s.
Normally highs in the low/mid 90s with heat index values of 102 to 106 would not be considered a big weather headline in July.
1240 PM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024 (Today through Thursday afternoon) While Texas is still in between two areas of upper level ridging, the ridge to our west has meandered closer to the Colorado Plateau inducing weak northerly flow aloft. Still, the ridge is far enough away to not suppress shower/storm development both today and Thursday afternoon. With enough displacement of the upper ridge center, high temperatures stay right around normal for early/mid July, topping out in the mid to upper 90s for most.
A relatively strong mid-level high pressure cell remains centered over NW Arizona today.
258 PM EDT Wed Jul 10 2024 - Rain Ending this evening, scattered storms Thursday - Warming Temperatures into the Weekend with Some Storms Possible - Rain Ending this evening, scattered storms Thursday Dry air is being entrained from the north into the low pressure circulation resulting in an erosion of the steady rain across southwest Lower Michigan this afternoon. There will be a lull in rain chances from tonight into Thursday morning, then scattered showers and thunderstorms pop again by Thursday afternoon as an upper trough follows quickly on the heels of the departing low and steepens lapse rates/increases instability. - Warming Temperatures into the Weekend with Some Storms Possible High pressure slides into the region late in the week as the tropical low moves east of Michigan.
(This evening through Thursday Night) Temperatures have quickly climbed into the low to mid 90's under weak and very broad sfc ridging this afternoon.
205 PM EDT Wed Jul 10 2024 A cold front associated with the remnants of Beryl will usher in drier air through Thursday.
1210 PM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024 (Rest of Today) Beryl, in its wake, has brought a "cooler" and drier air mass across the region today.
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Upper ridge remains in place with temperatures peaking tomorrow with widespread highs in the 90s to around 105 in the favored locations. The ridge gets flattened a bit Thursday evening and lasting into the weekend. A few weak impulses moving across the top of the ridge could be enough to set off a few high based thunderstorms, little to no rain is expected and dry lighting could be a concern as fuels which are still pretty green at the moment will start drying out.
Tomorrow a little warmer. Discussion: Temperature wise today has been an excellent day! With frontal passage thanks to post tropical cyclone Beryl helping to push cooler and drier air into the region, today has shaped up to be a good day. Warmer air aloft tomorrow indicate slightly warmer afternoon temperatures, but the post frontal airmass will continue to keep the dewpoints down, so it won't feel muggy outdoors.
A few showers will linger into Thursday, before high pressure builds back in for the end of the week. A very unstable air mass has developed across much of the interior Northeast this afternoon ahead of an approaching low pressure system that contains the remnants of Beryl. The parent low pressure system will move out tonight and a slightly cooler and much drier air mass will advect in behind the system into Thursday. A ridge of high pressure will set up farther to the west and keep areas west of I-81 mostly dry and quiet.
While surface ridging remains in control across the region, the presence of a weak boundary and diurnal heating will be sufficient for a few short-lived showers and thunderstorms this afternoon across portions of North and Central Texas.
440 PM EDT Wed Jul 10 2024 - Rain Ending this evening, scattered storms Thursday - Warming Temperatures into the Weekend with Some Storms Possible - Rain Ending this evening, scattered storms Thursday Dry air is being entrained from the north into the low pressure circulation resulting in an erosion of the steady rain across southwest Lower Michigan this afternoon. There will be a lull in rain chances from tonight into Thursday morning, then scattered showers and thunderstorms pop again by Thursday afternoon as an upper trough follows quickly on the heels of the departing low and steepens lapse rates/increases instability. - Warming Temperatures into the Weekend with Some Storms Possible High pressure slides into the region late in the week as the tropical low moves east of Michigan.
The highest chances look to be from Orlando southward. Any additional rain and cloud cover would work against higher max temps, but the low to mid 90s are still expected for many locations.
152 PM PDT Wed Jul 10 2024 The upper ridge is over southeast California and shifting to the east.
North of I-10, drier air has filtered in behind the boundary as high pressure builds southward. After a mild overnight period, with lows falling into the low to mid 70s, highs on Thursday will climb into the upper 80s to lower 90s once again. /73 (Thursday night through Wednesday) The forecast area will remain on the periphery of a mid level trough moving through the Ohio and TN Valleys and mid level ridging to our southeast.
(This evening through Thursday) An upper-level ridge was evident on water vapor imagery over the Desert Southwest this afternoon, along with a trough over the north- central US. The forecast area sits between these two features through the short term period, though the ridge should begin to exert more influence tomorrow as it drifts eastward. In the meantime, a piece of energy lagging behind the trough should reach the CWA by this evening, providing subtle forcing. Tomorrow's high temperatures are expected to reach the low to upper 90s-- slightly above average-- as 500mb heights rise through the afternoon and subsidence increases aloft.
1211 PM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024 (Rest of today through Thursday) Dry weather will take hold through Thursday afternoon as upper level troughing develops and surface riding influences continue to persist across mid state region.
(Rest of today through Thursday) Dry weather will take hold through Thursday afternoon as upper level troughing develops and surface riding influences continue to persist across mid state region.
1228 PM EDT Wed Jul 10 2024 A cold front associated with the remnants of Beryl will usher in drier air through Thursday.
Tonight a coastal trof will be in place offshore the GA/SC coast while high pressure will be situated over south FL and the northeast Gulf of Mexico which will keep our southern tier zones open to westerly flow overnight with some development of pre-dawn showers and isolated storms streaming into the region mainly south I-10 during the pre-dawn hours, mainly south of I-10 into north central FL.
923 AM PDT Wed Jul 10 2024 The upper ridge is over southern California and slowly shifting to the east.
243 PM MDT Wed Jul 10 2024 - Becoming hotter with heat headlines possible through the weekend - Limited precipitation chances, but marginal risk isolated severe thunderstorms later Thursday - Elevated fire weather conditions 20Z analysis shows upper/thermal ridge building toward the forecast area from the west. Downslope flow flow may keep low temperatures noticeably warmer in the northern foothills zones tonight. With southeasterly upslope winds to the east of the trough increasing low level moisture, may see isolated thunderstorms develop along the convergence zone over the Black Hills, with convection initiating as early as 200 PM.
We remain underneath southwesterly flow aloft with troughing over the central part of the country, so expect moist Gulf air to edge northward heading into the weekend.
250 PM EDT Wed Jul 10 2024 (This afternoon through Thursday) A cold front has made it into the southern portion of the County Warning Area (CWA) this afternoon. Early afternoon temperatures range from the mid 70s in the NE mountains to the lower 90s in the SE. Dewpoints range from the lower 60s in the NE to the lower 70s in the SE. Low temperatures tonight are forecast to range from near 60 in the NE mountains to the lower 70s in the extreme SE.
Temperatures have risen into the lower 90s and dew points are near 80 degrees in most island communities, making for a steamy afternoon. The high in the North Atlantic has retreated eastward some since this morning, resulting in a weakening of winds.
(Tonight) Mostly clear and calm conditions are prevailing across the Tennessee Valley with high pressure in control.
For this evening, isolated t-storms will move off the higher terrain with steering flow mainly to the S with activity mainly E and S of Tucson. Tomorrow is shaping up to be a big transition day as the upper high shifts from ern NV today to wrn UT. This will allow the mid-level flow to turn more out of the NE, prime steering flow to propagate storms off the higher terrain into the lower deserts.
630 PM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024 (Tonight) As the remnants of Beryl continue to move over the northeastern portion of the country, the Tennessee Valley is less and less under its influence with high pressure taking over (both at the surface and aloft).
Upper cirrus shield coming from the E tonight wrapping between the upper low spinning NE of the Bahamas and narrow ridging from the Mid-Atlantic into the NE Gulf.
629 PM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024 (This evening through Thursday Night) Temperatures have quickly climbed into the low to mid 90's under weak and very broad sfc ridging this afternoon.
08 Previous short-term discussion: (This evening through Thursday) As a low pressure moves to the northeast through the Ohio Valley, a trailing area of low level clouds will move across the northeastern half of the area today and this evening. Otherwise, northerly flow will bring drier air to the state with heat indices in the low to mid 90s today and Thursday. A high pressure tries to develop to the west of Alabama and over the lower Mississippi River Valley, but this only continues the northerly flow and dry air advection.
It was noted this evening that the high temperature for the day in some locations actually occurred very early this morning, before daybreak. While temperatures didn't fall through the day like would occur in the cooler seasons with a strong cold front passage, that is still fairly unusual for July. Tomorrow a little warmer. Discussion: Temperature wise today has been an excellent day! With frontal passage thanks to post tropical cyclone Beryl helping to push cooler and drier air into the region, today has shaped up to be a good day. Warmer air aloft tomorrow indicate slightly warmer afternoon temperatures, but the post frontal airmass will continue to keep the dewpoints down, so it won't feel muggy outdoors.
An upper level ridge remains over Western Washington through the weekend with continued low-level onshore flow. This will maintain above normal temperatures, but still notably cooler than the start of the week.
- Rain Ending this evening, scattered storms Thursday Dry air is being entrained from the north into the low pressure circulation resulting in an erosion of the steady rain across southwest Lower Michigan this afternoon. There will be a lull in rain chances from tonight into Thursday morning, then scattered showers and thunderstorms pop again by Thursday afternoon as an upper trough follows quickly on the heels of the departing low and steepens lapse rates/increases instability. - Warming Temperatures into the Weekend with Some Storms Possible High pressure slides into the region late in the week as the tropical low moves east of Michigan.
957 PM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024 Weak sfc ridging remains anchored over the region this evening, extending NE into the TN Valley.
Light to gentle east to southeast breezes will prevail across the Florida Keys coastal waters through the rest of the work week, as high pressure remains in place from the Atlantic across the Florida peninsula and into the Gulf of Mexico.
(This afternoon through Thursday) A cold front has made it into the southern portion of the County Warning Area (CWA) this afternoon. Early afternoon temperatures range from the mid 70s in the NE mountains to the lower 90s in the SE. Dewpoints range from the lower 60s in the NE to the lower 70s in the SE. Low temperatures tonight are forecast to range from near 60 in the NE mountains to the lower 70s in the extreme SE.
Muscha (This evening through Thursday night) High pressure continues to build over the region in the short term period. Therefore, rain rates are forecast to be on the higher end today, perhaps between 1-1.