Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
(The rest of today ) Upper low will continue to slowly move across the area today supporting periods of mainly light rainfall through much of today, with most of the precipitation remaining concentrated along and north of I-40.
105 PM EST Sun Feb 4 2024 High pressure centered over the Upper Great Lakes will be the primary influence on our weather through much of the upcoming work week. High pressure will continue to supply dry air and only slight cold advection overnight.
1115 AM CST Sun Feb 4 2024 (Today through Monday Night) The large upper-level low that is associated with the cold front that moved through yesterday continues to spin across Lower Mississippi River Valley. Afternoon high temperatures will be in the low to mid 60s for most of the area today and tomorrow.
A strong low pressure system near the California coast will enhance the pressure gradient for increasing winds this afternoon.
326 PM EST Sun Feb 4 2024 High pressure centered over the Upper Great Lakes will be the primary influence on our weather through much of the upcoming work week. High pressure will continue to supply dry air and only slight cold advection overnight.
Temperatures will be above normal through early in the week before trending even warmer by midweek and beyond. Amplified mid level flow with pronounced rex block in the mid levels with a narrow ridge over the Ohio Valley. This is helping to keep low pressure to our south across the Lower MS Valley and the Gulf states. Slightly cooler air will filter back in from the N late tonight into Monday on the "backside" of the departing system moving through the SE CONUS/nrn Gulf. LL/ML heights will lower late tonight/Monday as the core of the midlevel height retrogrades into the central plains, signaling the arrival of slightly cooler air in the column further E into the OH Vly. With more cloud cover near/N of I-70 on Monday, some locales may struggle to get out of the lower 40s.
These cooler temperatures are looking to stick around through tomorrow as well leading to daytime highs topping out in the lower 50s today and mid 50s tomorrow. The few degrees warmer temps tomorrow will be mainly thanks to the start of a ridge building in from the west allowing for skies to clear out in the afternoon.
(This evening through Monday) Broad upper level low currently centered over the lower MS Valley continues to shift slowly southeastward, with northwest flow aloft consequently persisting over the forecast area ahead of modest upper ridging to our west. Upper ridging will begin building overhead on Monday, but will continue to favor highs on the cooler end of guidance given continuing light northerly surface flow and the expected widespread early-day cloud cover.
Late tonight patchy freezing is possible southwest and east.
(This evening through Monday) As the upper low slowly exits the region, rain will gradually diminish and shift southeastward through the evening. Tomorrow, we transition to upper level ridging.
Temperatures will likely lower due to wet-bulb effects into the lower to mid 40s in most areas, as heavier precipitation develops towards noon into the early evening hours.
A squall line moved through the Lower Keys earlier this morning and is now pushing through the Middle and Upper Keys. A brief spin up northwest of Cudjoe Key prompted a tornado warning for portions of the Lower Keys, otherwise, all spinners have remained offshore. The expansive negatively tilted trough responsive for the development of our squall remains draped across the ArkLaTex region.
1131 AM CST Sun Feb 4 2024 (Today through Monday afternoon) WV imagery shows the negatively-tilted upper trough roughly over the Red River, leaving West Texas and Southeast New Mexico under dry, northwest flow aloft. Despite the Pac front, thicknesses will increase today, and highs will be similar of a degree or two warmer than yesterday. Monday, as a result of the cold front, temperatures will warm only to right around normal, which is the 60s most locations.
This convection is not particularly strong (not producing much in the way of winds), but low freezing levels aloft (about 7 KFt) with wetbulb zero around 4KFT.
(Thru Tonight) A rather unusual upper air pattern is in place currently over the CONUS, with a NW-SE elongated upper low pressure from OK down to the central Gulf Coast south of an upper high over the Great Lakes. Lacy (Monday through Sunday) Upper ridging to our west will slide east over the Plains this week, allowing for more tranquil and mild/warm weather.
A low pressure system is currently pushing into the Florida Panhandle. The shower chances and overcast skies will stick around until the evening hours when the low is expected to push off the SE Coast of Florida.
Temperatures have recovered back into the lower 70s across the Lower and Middle Keys, but are still in the upper 60s in the Upper Keys. The main low associated with the very negatively tilted trough across the Gulf States will quickly jut southeastward over Central Florida over the next 12 to 24 hours. Forecast soundings have the freezing level just above 8kft and the -20 C line right around 500 mb, which is very atypical this far south. On top of the potential for hail, winds are expected to sharply increase tomorrow morning as this low dives southeastward and tightens the pressure gradient. As this low begins to edge into the western North Atlantic tomorrow evening, it will drag a cold front across the forecast area.
On the other hand, places like Morristown are seeing some gusts to around 20kt like some of the high resolution models were forecasting. Discussion: In the upper levels, a cut-off low will be in the lower MS Valley today drifting slowly southeast overnight, near the FL Panhandle by Monday morning. A ridge will be over the Midwest and Great Lakes. Breezy conditions will be possible today and tonight mainly in the higher elevations of the East Tennessee mountains and the higher elevations of the Cumberland Plateau.
1125 AM CST Sun Feb 4 2024 (The rest of today ) Upper low will continue to slowly move across the area today supporting periods of mainly light rainfall through much of today, with most of the precipitation remaining concentrated along and north of I-40.
1139 AM CST Sun Feb 4 2024 (Today and tonight) An elongated upper low currently centered over the TX Panhandle is slowly departing southeastward. Otherwise, mostly clear skies are expected, with the exception of stubborn cloud cover over the southeastern TX Panhandle and northern Rolling Plains closer to the low which will generally continue throughout the day.
(Monday night through next Sunday) An upper-level ridge looks to build in across the southern Plains for the start of the work week.
The upper ridge becomes reestablished across the central CONUS early this week, spelling a continued warm pattern with well above normal temperatures.
954 AM CST Sun Feb 4 2024 - Increasing confidence (>50% probability) that areas of dense fog or freezing fog develop late tonight and again Monday night north of I-70, perhaps leading to a few slick spots.
The low stratus deck over the far northern portion of the forecast area is starting to thin out and continue to do so over the next few hours. The exception may be in the far north, where the morning stratus would inhibit heating enough for highs in the lower 40s. Some cooler air will advect into the area as winds become northeast throughout more of the atmosphere. Along with the cooler air will come more low level moisture. Anomalous upper ridging will continue to promote above normal temperatures with highs generally in the mid 40s to near 50F.
A zonal low latitude jet stream is bringing storm systems to the West Coast with the mountains wringing out the rainfall and bringing us dry Pacific cold fronts. Thus the departing low over the Red River will send a weak cold front tonight only bringing temperatures back down to near normal.
349 PM EST Sun Feb 4 2024 A large ocean low pressure system will stay well east of the Gulf of Maine through Monday while high pressure settles across the Saint Lawrence River valley.
Discussion: Upper low over the Arklamiss area will continue to pivot/shift southeast through this evening and overnight. The latest high resolution guidance doens't really bring it much further north through the evening hours before the upper low pulls too far away for our CWA to have any realistic chance of seeing rainfall.
However, another surge of moisture will bring an increase in rain chances by early Monday morning as widely scattered showers develop with the approach of an upper low. A low pressure system is currently pushing into the Florida Panhandle. The shower chances and overcast skies will stick around until the evening hours when the low is expected to push off the SE Coast of Florida.
High pressure will bring mainly dry and warmer weather through Monday.
900 PM CST Sun Feb 4 2024 - Slick spots on untreated surfaces, especially bridges and overpasses, and visibilities down to 1/4 mile or less are possible into Monday morning in areas of freezing fog. Issued 900 PM CST Sun Feb 4 2024 Continuing to monitor the freezing fog and stratus working south along the Lake Michigan shoreline. However, right now it appears the stratus and fog/freezing fog are hung up along the Kettle Moraine, with very slow/if any westward movement in the last few hours across east-central Wisconsin. Slightly cooler air from sfc-850mb will arrive late tnt-Mon enhancing low level instability over the lake, hence the stratus development. Freezing fog and dense fog will be possible in these areas.
648 PM EST Sun Feb 4 2024 High pressure centered over the Upper Great Lakes will be the primary influence on our weather through much of the upcoming work week.
527 PM CST Sun Feb 4 2024 (Thru Tonight) A rather unusual upper air pattern is in place currently over the CONUS, with a NW-SE elongated upper low pressure from OK down to the central Gulf Coast south of an upper high over the Great Lakes. Lacy (Monday through Sunday) Upper ridging to our west will slide east over the Plains this week, allowing for more tranquil and mild/warm weather.
600 PM CST Sun Feb 4 2024 (This evening through Monday night) Current upper level analysis shows upper low centered along the Mississippi River between LA and MS as well as a deep trough in the western Atlantic. This evening through Monday night, there's good agreement that the upper low will track southeast across the northeastern Gulf and into the Atlantic as its absorbed by the longwave trough. Model soundings indicate very steep low to mid level laps rates, due to the deep upper low overhead. Monday as the low moves into the northeastern Gulf of Mexico.
622 PM EST Sun Feb 4 2024 High pressure centered over the Upper Great Lakes will be the primary influence on our weather through much of the upcoming work week. High pressure will continue to supply dry air and only slight cold advection overnight.
Showery conditions for the region with rain for the lowlands and snow for mountains.
517 PM CST Sun Feb 4 2024 (This evening through Monday) Broad upper level low currently centered over the lower MS Valley continues to shift slowly southeastward, with northwest flow aloft consequently persisting over the forecast area ahead of modest upper ridging to our west. Upper ridging will begin building overhead on Monday, but will continue to favor highs on the cooler end of guidance given continuing light northerly surface flow and the expected widespread early-day cloud cover.
Otherwise, temperatures for most tonight should drop to near or just above freezing across the area given persistent cloud cover which should limit radiational cooling. These cooler temperatures are looking to stick around through tomorrow as well leading to daytime highs topping out in the lower 50s today and mid 50s tomorrow. The few degrees warmer temps tomorrow will be mainly thanks to the start of a ridge building in from the west allowing for skies to clear out in the afternoon.
457 PM CST Sun Feb 4 2024 (This evening through Monday) As the upper low slowly exits the region, rain will gradually diminish and shift southeastward through the evening. Tomorrow, we transition to upper level ridging.
Slightly cooler air from sfc-850mb will arrive late tnt-Mon enhancing low level instability over the lake, hence the stratus development. Freezing fog and dense fog will be possible in these areas.
(This evening through Monday night) Current upper level analysis shows upper low centered along the Mississippi River between LA and MS as well as a deep trough in the western Atlantic. This evening through Monday night, there's good agreement that the upper low will track southeast across the northeastern Gulf and into the Atlantic as its absorbed by the longwave trough. Model soundings indicate very steep low to mid level laps rates, due to the deep upper low overhead. Monday as the low moves into the northeastern Gulf of Mexico.
212 PM MST Sun Feb 4 2024 Surface and upper level Lows that were giving our region the Gulf moisture tap the last couple days is moving off to the southeast and this will effectively pinch off our connection to that moisture source. Flow aloft over our region becomes southwesterly in connection to a deep trough over the West Coast.
Just some isolated light showers and drizzle remain possible through the rest of the evening, mainly across southeast Oklahoma as elongated upper low slowly pulls away from the area. Bowlan (Thru Tonight) A rather unusual upper air pattern is in place currently over the CONUS, with a NW-SE elongated upper low pressure from OK down to the central Gulf Coast south of an upper high over the Great Lakes. Lacy (Monday through Sunday) Upper ridging to our west will slide east over the Plains this week, allowing for more tranquil and mild/warm weather.
928 PM EST Sun Feb 4 2024 High pressure builds into the region.
622 PM EST Sun Feb 4 2024 High pressure remains near the Great Lakes through Monday while low pressure moves east across Florida.
905 PM EST Sun Feb 4 2024 High pressure and upper level ridging dominate the weather pattern through midweek with dry conditions expected.
657 PM EST Sun Feb 4 2024 A low pressure system is currently pushing into the Florida Panhandle. The shower chances and overcast skies will stick around until the evening hours when the low is expected to push off the SE Coast of Florida.
Shower chances will increase on Monday as moisture moves into the region from the south and an upper level trough swings through the area.
845 PM CST Sun Feb 4 2024 Light showers associated with a low pressure system over southern AL/GA impacted far southwest Middle Tennessee early in the evening. NNE surface winds will continue overnight with cooler air dropping temps down into the mid to upper 30s by daybreak.
The southwest flow may bring some Pacific moisture to the mountains in the afternoon (35-45% PoPs) and perhaps near an inch of snow by evening on the higher west facing slopes. Light orographic snow in the high country continues Monday night, but the rest of the area will remain dry.
Powerful wind gusts across Kern County and the Coastal Range have already been observed earlier today, and are forecast to continue as a strong gradient ahead of the cold front persists. However, precip will spread further south overnight tonight as the cold front dips southward. Snowfall totals in the higher elevations of the Sierra Nevada above 8,000 feet have the potential to top out as high as 8 feet.
The large upper level low is expected to move south and east out of the forecast area this afternoon as another piece of upper level energy approaches the western side of the upper level low. Cool high temperatures are expected and will generally be in the mid to upper 50s, with cooler conditions expected across southwest Georgia and the warmest conditions expected across the southeast Big Bend.
Light westerly winds expected overnight, with lows in the low 50s for much of the region. (00Z TAFS) Mainly VFR tonight and tomorrow, with some increase in showers and even some isolated storms into Monday as low pressure crosses the area. Light W/SW winds veer through tomorrow, becoming S/SE by morning, E/NE into the afternoon and then become northerly into the evening and increasing behind exiting low pressure.
321 AM EST Mon Feb 5 2024 High pressure will maintain dry weather and above average temperatures through much of the week.
The afternoon/early evening small hail storms have ended over southern portions of the forecast area, and the persistent rain shield continues to pivot southward around the now departing closed upper low. With somewhat steeper midlevel lapse rates in the vicinity of the upper low, we can't rule out isolated thunder tonight, but rising heights and loose forcing for ascent will preclude any noteworthy convection. Rain will decrease early Monday morning with the departure of the low, with clearing perhaps a bit slower to occur as low level cyclonic convergence persists during the day. A low level jet wrapping behind the upper low will result in rather gusty wind during the daytime, with gusts to around 30 mph possible mainly earlier in the day.
1130 PM CST Sun Feb 4 2024 The afternoon/early evening small hail storms have ended over southern portions of the forecast area, and the persistent rain shield continues to pivot southward around the now departing closed upper low. With somewhat steeper midlevel lapse rates in the vicinity of the upper low, we can't rule out isolated thunder tonight, but rising heights and loose forcing for ascent will preclude any noteworthy convection. Rain will decrease early Monday morning with the departure of the low, with clearing perhaps a bit slower to occur as low level cyclonic convergence persists during the day. A low level jet wrapping behind the upper low will result in rather gusty wind during the daytime, with gusts to around 30 mph possible mainly earlier in the day.
1021 PM CST Sun Feb 4 2024 (This evening through Monday) Broad upper level low currently centered over the lower MS Valley continues to shift slowly southeastward, with northwest flow aloft consequently persisting over the forecast area ahead of modest upper ridging to our west. Upper ridging will begin building overhead on Monday, but will continue to favor highs on the cooler end of guidance given continuing light northerly surface flow and the expected widespread early-day cloud cover.
Lows tonight will be in the 30s, mainly staying above freezing with light winds and mostly clear skies. (Monday night through next Sunday) An upper-level ridge looks to build in across the southern Plains for the start of the work week.
1107 PM EST Sun Feb 4 2024 High pressure centered over the Upper Great Lakes will be the primary influence on our weather through much of the upcoming work week.
Temperatures have been adjusted down primarily across portions of north-central MT from Cut Bank to Great Falls and Lewistown, but also in the Gallatin Valley where some locations have already seen temperatures fall to the lower teens and upper single digits. Areas along and west of I-15 from Great Falls north to Cut Bank have the highest probability (40-50%) for more persistent and extensive fog overnight with visibility 1/2SM or less overnight per latest high-resolution model guidance.
1006 PM EST Sun Feb 4 2024 High pressure centered over the Upper Great Lakes will be the primary influence on our weather through much of the upcoming work week.
1259 AM EST Mon Feb 5 2024 High pressure builds into the region.
The mid/upper level low responsible for this past weekend's rain, will continue to exit southeast and out of the region today. Breezy northerly winds now over the region will result in slightly cooler drier air advecting into the forecast area through the period.
400 AM EST Mon Feb 5 2024 Low pressure will continue to track south of the region today. High pressure will then build across much of the eastern United States for the rest of the week. Water vapor satellite showed an upper low near the FL Panhandle, and ridging across the Midwest. Surface observations displayed a few lows near northern FL, and high pressure stretching from the southern Plains to the Great Lakes region. High cirrus spread across the area this morning will become more sparse into the afternoon as the aforementioned upper low moves further south across central FL.
1053 PM CST Sun Feb 4 2024 (This evening through Monday) As the upper low slowly exits the region, rain will gradually diminish and shift southeastward through the evening. Tomorrow, we transition to upper level ridging.
1032 PM CST Sun Feb 4 2024 Light showers associated with a low pressure system over southern AL/GA impacted far southwest Middle Tennessee early in the evening. NNE surface winds will continue overnight with cooler air dropping temps down into the mid to upper 30s by daybreak.
323 AM EST Mon Feb 5 2024 Low pressure will continue to track south of the region today. High pressure will then build across much of the eastern United States for the rest of the week. Water vapor satellite showed an upper low near the FL Panhandle, and ridging across the Midwest. Surface observations displayed a few lows near northern FL, and high pressure stretching from the southern Plains to the Great Lakes region. High cirrus spread across the area this morning will become more sparse into the afternoon as the aforementioned upper low moves further south across central FL.
Lows tonight will be in the 30s, mainly staying above freezing with light winds and mostly clear skies.
(Today and tonight) The stacked low pressure system that has produced wind across the forecast area the last couple of days has moved to the central Gulf Coast. However, a significant trough axis extends as far to the northwest as northwest Texas early this morning with significant low level cloud cover wrapping around the low in conjunction with the northwest extension of the trough. This is going to quickly change however, as the trough finally shifts well southward into the western Gulf of Mexico by noon and upper level ridging edges eastward across New Mexico. Cirrus will move in from the west as the mid/upper ridge axis moves eastward across the southern High Plains.
1246 AM EST Mon Feb 5 2024 High pressure centered over the Upper Great Lakes will be the primary influence on our weather through much of the upcoming work week.
1055 PM CST Sun Feb 4 2024 Vigorous upper level trough spinning over the Lower Miss Valley attm. We are still dealing with some very light rain and/or drizzle across most of the region attm but at the upper trough continues to move eastward towards the NE Gulf Coast by morning, we lose the upper level forcing and thus, we should lose the precipitation. Wrap around moisture on the west side of the low will maintain cloud-cover along with increased chances for light rain through tonight mainly across north Louisiana and south Arkansas. Overnight low temperatures tonight to fall into the low to mid 40s areawide. On Monday, surface and upper-level ridging to continue to gradually build across the region bringing improved sky conditions. Temperatures on Monday afternoon are forecast to climb into the lower 60s.
1152 PM CST Sun Feb 4 2024 (This evening through Monday night) Current upper level analysis shows upper low centered along the Mississippi River between LA and MS as well as a deep trough in the western Atlantic. This evening through Monday night, there's good agreement that the upper low will track southeast across the northeastern Gulf and into the Atlantic as its absorbed by the longwave trough. Model soundings indicate very steep low to mid level laps rates, due to the deep upper low overhead. Monday as the low moves into the northeastern Gulf of Mexico.