Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1250 PM EST Thu Feb 13 2025 - Lake Effect Snow Showers Today - Additional Snow Expected This Weekend, Then Cold - Lake Effect Snow Showers Today The widespread synoptic snowfall has come to a close this morning as the low-pressure system responsible pulls away from the region. - Additional Snow Expected This Weekend, Then Cold A brief break in the snow is expected Friday due to surface and upper-level ridging Friday before snow returns Friday Night.
It will remain gusty on Friday as high pressure builds into the region.
- Warmer and breezier for Friday and Friday night.
It isn't impossible for us to get some shower activity as there still seems to be some veering winds in the lower levels, but we will go ahead and keep PoPs near zero for tonight and tomorrow. The ridging that secured our warmer and more humid weather lately will retreat eastward as a deepening trough over the U. Guidance continues to hint at a possible cold front approaching the peninsula.
The bulk of this moisture is confined to the lower levels with the low level relative, or the average humidity between the surface and approximately 850 mb, at 83 percent. The veering in the lower levels indicates that there may be some sort of lift out there, so we will continue to advertise the 10 percent PoPs for today.
Also we extended the winter weather advisory in northern Douglas County another hour due to reports of freezing precipitation as of 8 am pst. Warmer air will move into the area withing the hour with temperatures rising above freezing. As an area of low pressure moves into the region, showers will spread over the region with ceilings generally decreasing as times goes on today. However, confidence in timing for this is low due to dry air in the lower levels, so it may be late in this TAF cycle before the lower levels saturate. Low pressure will move through the waters today bringing unsettled weather with periods of rain, gusty south winds and steep to, at times, very steep seas. The low will move onshore and inland tonight into Friday.
Based on latest obs trends and with strong low level cold advection helping to anchor an upstream thermal trough, have increased cloud cover and lowered temps some through early to mid afternoon. A brief reprieve from rainy conditions is expected for today and tomorrow as general post-frontal conditions and ridging dictates the meteorological conditions for the forecast area.
This comes ahead of a weak area of low pressure in the western Gulf that will move northward Friday and will result in isolated showers along and south of I-10 through Friday evening. Northeasterly winds tonight will continue to funnel in cooler air, keeping lows in the upper 30s to upper 40s.
217 PM EST Thu Feb 13 2025 Longwave trough over the eastern half of the US continues to move eastward with trailing vort max pushing a cold front through the Deep South and NE Gulf this afternoon. N of the front is expected to remain drier and less humid while S of the front warmer and humid conditions will persist.
Inversion heights will start out around 5-6 kft early this evening then slowly come down this evening as surface ridging builds in and cyclonic flow transitions to zonal.
Radiational cooling will be limited with the low overcast clouds persisting, with lows only dropping several degrees into the lower 40s. A coastal trough will develop and approach the Middle Texas Coast but remain over the open waters Friday into Friday night, this will lead to a medium chance of showers and a low chance of thunderstorms over the waters. The thick low stratus overcast clouds will limit surface heating and highs to the low to mid 50s. Dewpoints increase Friday night due to close proximity of the surface coastal trough. Lows Friday night will be warmer, in the low to mid 50s, limited by the dewpoints.
707 PM EST Thu Feb 13 2025 High pressure over the area will result in a dry forecast through Friday evening. Then a low pressure center will build over the Midwest.
523 PM CST Thu Feb 13 2025 - Warmer and breezier for Friday and Friday night.
The loss of moisture depth and the increase in subsidence/ridging is responsible for the demise of the lake effect. Some flurries will remain possible for a few more hours, but late tonight we expect dry conditions as ridging takes over. Lows tonight will range from the single digits to the lower teens. Inversion heights will start out around 5-6 kft early this evening then slowly come down this evening as surface ridging builds in and cyclonic flow transitions to zonal.
Dry weather is expected Friday under high pressure.
- Slight chance of a brief wintry mix Friday morning, and then moderate chance for some brief snow behind a cold front Saturday.
In the wake of yesterday's cold frontal passage, a stout high pressure system is sliding east across the Midwest tonight. As the high continues eastward, winds will turn out of the southeast tomorrow and returning humidity may yield a few sprinkles or light showers by the afternoon. Tonight through Saturday night: A polar airmass has surged into the area today, and much of the area north of the I-20 corridor should see lows drop below freezing. As stronger ascent develops late Saturday, expect convective rainfall to organize ahead of a strong cold front, and given strong deep layer wind shear, we continue to expect a severe weather event with primary hazards being damaging wind gusts and tornadoes (enhanced risk).
KBYX radar is not detecting any shower activity and GOES 16 Nighttime Microphysics shows some low level clouds throughout the area, especially across the Lower Keys and the Straits of Florida. Temperatures along the Island Chain are in the mid 70s with dew points in the lower 70s. Deep mean layer ridging remains in place across the western North Atlantic with the western periphery of this ridge extending westward into Florida. The lower levels remain the most moist with the layer closest to saturation being between 975 to 925 mb.
As warmer air returns into Saturday some freezing rain is possible south of I80 before turning to all snow during the day. With surface temperatures below freezing, this could be freezing rain, especially south of I80. Temps could get above freezing Saturday to melt an ice.
Highs will range from the low 30s to mid 40s for most areas by this afternoon. Highs on Fri will be in the low 40s to low 50s. A warm front will lift north into portions of AR during the day on Sat. Latest guidance suggests this warm front lifting far enough north to see the SERN corner of the state in the warm sector. and a cold front approaching from the NW by Sat afternoon. the cold front push to the SE will be relatively slow.
A warm front will bring temporary relief to the southwest and portions of the south central, from the cold Arctic airmass that has been persisting over the region. High temperatures today are forecast to climb into the lower 20s in the southwest this afternoon while a remainder of the state will sit in the mid teens to single digits.
1247 AM EST Fri Feb 14 2025 High pressure over the area will result in a dry forecast through Friday evening. Then a low pressure center will build over the Midwest.
1251 AM EST Fri Feb 14 2025 - Another round of snow and freezing rain arrives Friday night into early Saturday, before a temporary transition to rain/mix Saturday afternoon.
- There is also around a 30 percent chance that a period of freezing rain and sleet will bring a light accumulation of ice overnight Friday night into Saturday morning from near I-72 northward. Today's breezy winds will abruptly come to an end this evening as a high pressure center migrates eastward and settles in over the area for most of the night. The light winds, clear skies, and snow cover (over some of the area) will allow temperatures to plummet, arriving at lows ranging from near zero in areas that are snow covered, to the lower teens south of I-70. Expect highs struggling to reach the freezing mark from I-72 northward, and only mid 30s to the south, with 10 to 20 mph winds and a few higher gusts, possibly over 30 mph west of the Illinois River.
1141 PM EST Thu Feb 13 2025 Dry weather is expected Friday under high pressure.
After extremely cold temperatures this morning, Friday will be warmer. A full ensemble look shows temps in the low 30s for areas along and northeast of the tri- cities, approaching the low 40s in western north central Kansas. By Friday night the next cold front will plow southward returning bitter cold temperatures on Saturday.
This comes ahead of a weak area of low pressure in the western Gulf that will move northward Friday and will result in isolated showers along and south of I-10 through Friday evening. Northeasterly winds tonight will continue to funnel in cooler air, keeping lows in the upper 30s to upper 40s. Cloud cover and continued southerly/southeasterly flow will contribute to warmer lows on Friday as temperatures dip into the low 50s to low 60s.
1122 PM CST Thu Feb 13 2025 In the wake of yesterday's cold frontal passage, a stout high pressure system is sliding east across the Midwest tonight. As the high continues eastward, winds will turn out of the southeast tomorrow and returning humidity may yield a few sprinkles or light showers by the afternoon. Tonight through Saturday night: A polar airmass has surged into the area today, and much of the area north of the I-20 corridor should see lows drop below freezing. As stronger ascent develops late Saturday, expect convective rainfall to organize ahead of a strong cold front, and given strong deep layer wind shear, we continue to expect a severe weather event with primary hazards being damaging wind gusts and tornadoes (enhanced risk).
1228 AM EST Fri Feb 14 2025 Dry weather is expected Friday under high pressure.
942 PM CST Thu Feb 13 2025 - Warmer and breezier for Friday and Friday night.
This could be snow north of I80, but could be freezing drizzle south of I80 resulting in a light glaze, before changing to snow.
355 AM CST Fri Feb 14 2025 - A high probability (60-80% chance) for freezing rain after Midnight in areas north of a Beardstown to Danville line, resulting in a thin glaze of ice.
Otherwise, breezy to locally windy conditions will be common across the region with this frontal passage, resulting in gusty winds 20-35 mph across lower desert locations, with stronger winds in the higher terrain of southwestern Imperial County, where a Wind Advisory is in effect into early Saturday morning for gusts up to 55 mph. Temperatures will hover near normal levels as the trough associated with the wetter weather progresses eastward of the region through Saturday.
Current surface analysis shows low pressure over northeast WY, with warm front extending across southern SD. An arctic cold front is located over northern MT. Upper level analysis shows trough along the Pacific coast, with southwest flow extending across the Great Basin and Rockies into the Plains. Southerly winds are breezy to the south of the warm front from southern portions of northeast WY to far southwest and south central SD. A bit of light snow or light freezing drizzle could develop over parts of northwest SD during the afternoon.
The cooler airmass that moved into the area last night, will transit the area today, making way for temperatures continuing to be at or below seasonal norms. This strong warm/moist air advecting in from the Gulf will surge temperatures into the high 70s to around 80, and dew points into the upper 60s. This will facilitate the development of gusty winds, and supply adequate levels of instability for the approaching cold front. As stronger ascent develops late Saturday, expect convective rainfall to organize ahead of a strong cold front, and given strong deep layer wind shear, we continue to expect a severe weather event with primary hazards being damaging wind gusts and tornadoes (enhanced risk).
A cold front will approach the area bringing with it numerous storms ahead and along the frontal boundary.
This rapid modification is due to troughing over the Intermountain West crossing the Four Corners by Friday night. As troughing shifts into West Texas early Saturday, kinematics and instability will also become more favorable for severe weather with adequate sfc-3km wind shear (40+ kts) and mid- level lapse rates picking up later that evening (near 8C/km). Aloft, a somewhat active synoptic pattern remains in place with longwave troughing across the Eastern U. and ridging across the Intermountain West setting us in a quasi- northwesterly flow path. Widely scattered -SHRA will also develop by/after 00Z across Deep E TX/Cntrl LA, and quickly spread NNE across the region by mid to late evening, with cigs lowering further to IFR ahead of a warm front that will begin lifting N from SE TX/S LA.
546 AM CST Fri Feb 14 2025 - A high probability (60-80% chance) for freezing rain after Midnight in areas north of a Beardstown to Danville line, resulting in a thin glaze of ice.
- Mainly light wintry precipitation, including freezing rain or freezing drizzle, may then continue into the pre-dawn hours of Saturday.
Look for light rain and snow showers to continue over northern and central Nevada today as a low pressure system moves across the area. Partial clearing will commence early tomorrow morning as high pressure tries to build east.
Lingering cold air will promote colder temperature tonight, with freezing temperatures across the interior valleys.
A warm front drapes itself southwest to northeast across the forecast area this morning, extending off low pressure in Wyoming. Best chance for any precip during the day and into this evening will occur right on the warm front across the ND/SD border and into Minnesota. As the thermal signal for a warm front weakens tonight and more of an inverted trough develops, there are still signals for some continued light snow in mild caa.
A piece of energy originating from the trough across the west will head east across the Plains later today and reach the Great Lakes Saturday morning. Considerable dry air in the lower levels initially this morning should eventually saturate as isentropic upglide increases and precipitation develops aloft.
That said the high end across central and western zones would get into solid advisory territory.
358 AM CST Fri Feb 14 2025 - Windy and warmer weather is forecast for today.
Zooming out to a continental scale, a broad upper level ridge remains centered over Cuba and Hispaniola. A decaying frontal boundary is present across the Florida Peninsula, and further west a deepening mid level trough is located over the Rockies. The mid level ridge will remain in place through Saturday, supporting above average highs and minimal, if any, PoPs. In addition, a high pressure system over the northeastern US is forecast to build and support moderate to fresh breezes.
513 AM CST Fri Feb 14 2025 - Warmer and breezier for Friday and Friday night.
This rapid modification is due to troughing over the Intermountain West crossing the Four Corners by Friday night. As troughing shifts into West Texas early Saturday, kinematics and instability will also become more favorable for severe weather with adequate sfc-3km wind shear (40+ kts) and mid- level lapse rates picking up later that evening (near 8C/km). Aloft, a somewhat active synoptic pattern remains in place with longwave troughing across the Eastern U. and ridging across the Intermountain West setting us in a quasi- northwesterly flow path.
Updated the forecast to lower high temperatures due to speed/timing of the cold front. Current surface analysis shows low pressure over northeast WY, with warm front extending across southern SD. An arctic cold front is located over northern MT. Upper level analysis shows trough along the Pacific coast, with southwest flow extending across the Great Basin and Rockies into the Plains. Southerly winds are breezy to the south of the warm front from southern portions of northeast WY to far southwest and south central SD. A bit of light snow or light freezing drizzle could develop over parts of northwest SD during the afternoon.
The ridging pattern we have been under will slowly move eastward over the Atlantic, and the flow in the lower levels will turn from east and southeast to south and southwest. A deepening trough digging into the southern U.
The upper trough axis is shifting east this morning and this will result in showers gradually diminishing during the day with showers becoming far and few in between from around midday through the afternoon. Upper ridging will push into the area this evening with any leftover showers mainly confined to Crater Lake north, then it will be dry for the rest of the overnight hours through Saturday afternoon as the upper ridge builds overhead. A low pressure system will continue to affect the area into Friday afternoon. The highest probability of measureable snow in Klamath Falls will occur between 14Z and 18Z on Friday morning.
The upper trough axis is shifting east this morning and this will result in showers gradually diminishing during the day with showers becoming far and few in between from around midday through the afternoon. Upper ridging will push into the area this evening with any leftover showers mainly confined to Crater Lake north, then it will be dry for the rest of the overnight hours through Saturday afternoon as the upper ridge builds overhead. Moist onshore flow will maintain showers today, focused mainly over the higher terrain of the Cascades/Siskiyous, but just about anywhere could have one through this evening.
Building high pressure will allow breezes to freshen across the nearshore waters tonight and tomorrow.
1125 AM CST Fri Feb 14 2025 - Warmer and breezier for Friday and Friday night.
Snowfall totals will generally be between a trace to an inch with the highest totals in west central Minnesota. The large displacement from the low in eastern Colorado and relatively weak isentropic ascent has significantly limited the ability for diabatic cooling to occur. While air temperatures are going to be warmer tonight, winds will increase from the north. EFI across much of the northern plains indicates strong ensemble agreement on an extreme cold event developing with the low potential for pushing past climatological minimums in air temperature.
A low pressure system will bring widespread rain, which may be heavy at times, to the region Saturday afternoon into Saturday night.
1148 AM CST Fri Feb 14 2025 - There is a high probability (60 to 80 percent chance) for a period of freezing rain this evening into Saturday morning for areas north of a Beardstown to Paris line, resulting in a thin glaze of ice. - A high probability (60-80% chance) for freezing rain after period Midnight in areas north of a Beardstown to Danville line, resulting in a thin glaze of ice.
314 PM EST Fri Feb 14 2025 - Period of snow this evening will transition to a mix of snow, freezing rain and eventually rain overnight into Saturday morning.
Areas north of the front, are a few degrees cooler and a touch less humid. The boundary will lift back north tomorrow as high pressure tries to build back in.
Highs are expected to be slightly warmer today as temps reach the upper 50s to lower 60s. The cooler airmass that moved into the area last night, will transit the area today, making way for temperatures continuing to be at or below seasonal norms. This strong warm/moist air advecting in from the Gulf will surge temperatures into the high 70s to around 80, and dew points into the upper 60s. This will facilitate the development of gusty winds, and supply adequate levels of instability for the approaching cold front. As stronger ascent develops late Saturday, expect convective rainfall to organize ahead of a strong cold front, and given strong deep layer wind shear, we continue to expect a severe weather event with primary hazards being damaging wind gusts and tornadoes (enhanced risk).
1143 AM CST Fri Feb 14 2025 - Windy and warmer weather is forecast for today.
- Breezy conditions continue through the next 24 hours, with slightly cooler temperatures Saturday afternoon behind a cold front.
556 PM EST Fri Feb 14 2025 - Period of snow this evening will transition to a mix of snow, freezing rain and eventually rain overnight into Saturday morning.
- A mixture of light precipitation (snow, freezing rain, sleet) is anticipated across southern Iowa late tonight into Saturday with impacts to travel.
545 PM CST Fri Feb 14 2025 - There is a high probability (60 to 80 percent chance) for a period of freezing rain late this evening into Saturday morning for areas north of a Springfield to Paris line, resulting in a thin glaze of ice. West of I-55, chances for freezing rain will be much lower.
A few showers and storms will be associated with the warm frontal passage tonight, but most of the area should be free of deep convection Saturday in what will likely be a capped airmass. As stronger ascent reaches the area late Saturday afternoon, expect storms to increase just ahead of a strong cold front moving into the ArkLaMiss Delta region.
310 PM CST Fri Feb 14 2025 - There is a high probability (60 to 80 percent chance) for a period of freezing rain late this evening into Saturday morning for areas north of a Springfield to Paris line, resulting in a thin glaze of ice. West of I-55, chances for freezing rain will be much lower.
502 PM CST Fri Feb 14 2025 - Breezy conditions continue through the next 24 hours, with slightly cooler temperatures Saturday afternoon behind a cold front.
Give the higher than expected winds this evening, have issued a Small Craft Advisory for all waters except the outer Gulf.
- Breezy conditions continue through the next 24 hours, with slightly cooler temperatures this afternoon behind a cold front.
Saturday will be drier as an upper ridge moves into the Pacific Northwest.
1023 PM CST Fri Feb 14 2025 - There is a high probability (60 to 80 percent chance) for a period of freezing rain late this evening into Saturday morning for areas north of a Shelbyville to Paris line, resulting in a thin glaze of ice.
1250 AM EST Sat Feb 15 2025 - Period of snow this evening will transition to a mix of snow, freezing rain and eventually rain overnight into Saturday morning.
1025 PM CST Fri Feb 14 2025 - Breezy conditions continue through the next 24 hours, with slightly cooler temperatures Saturday afternoon behind a cold front.
Bitterly cold air will arrive Sunday night as a strengthening high pressure system high builds into the northern Plains.
A cold front is expected to move through tomorrow afternoon bringing a line of showers and possible storms.
Meanwhile, a broad longwave ridge remains centered between Florida and the Bahamas.
Meanwhile, high pressure building is pushing frontal boundary back north across the state. On Sunday, an upper level trough will slide over the Northeast and stretches along the Eastern Seaboard. Most of the upper level support stays north of the area as cold front associated with the system attempts to bring rain chances and maybe a storm or two. Depending on the timing of the showers, afternoon temperatures across the Nature Coast may struggle to reach 80 degrees, while the rest of the Sunshine State gets into the low to upper 80s. Area of high pressure will build at the surface aiding to push cooler temperatures across the region.
This strong warm/moist air advecting in from the Gulf will surge temperatures into the high 70s to low 80s with dew points into the upper 60s. As stronger ascent reaches the area late this afternoon, expect storms to increase just ahead of a strong cold front moving into the ArkLaMiss Delta region.
634 AM EST Sat Feb 15 2025 - Period of snow this evening will transition to a mix of snow, freezing rain and eventually rain overnight into Saturday morning.
This is due to troughing over the Intermountain West crossing east of the Four Corners this morning. Aloft, a somewhat active synoptic pattern remains in place with longwave troughing across the Eastern U. and ridging across the Intermountain West setting us in a quasi-northwesterly flow path.
Temperatures this morning will be noticeably colder than previous days, so be careful if you're out driving over higher elevation roads/passes as they may be icy! A narrow ridge will pass through today, giving our region a brief break from the active weather.