Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
914 PM EDT Sun Aug 25 2024 A large area of high pressure centered east of the region will keep dry and hot conditions across the area. Aforementioned mid level ridge will continue to expand slowly northeast through the short term period. Highs on Monday will be in the lower to mid 90s. But with afternoon dewpoints in the lower to mid 60s, heat index values will be at or just slightly higher than the air temperature, so heat headlines will not be issued. It will be a little warmer Monday night with lows in the upper 60s to the lower 70s.
By this evening into tomorrow, a broad high pressure over the Southern Plains will begin to propagate northeastwards, enhancing low level heights across the Lower Mississippi Valley. By Monday, temperatures will increase into the upper 90s as the high intensifies.
654 PM CDT Sun Aug 25 2024 (This evening through Monday Night) Upper low spinning across the northern Gulf of Mexico attm, just south of the Southern La Coast.
140 AM EDT Mon Aug 26 2024 A large area of high pressure centered east of the region will keep dry and hot conditions across the area. Aforementioned mid level ridge will continue to expand slowly northeast through the short term period. Highs on Monday will be in the lower to mid 90s. But with afternoon dewpoints in the lower to mid 60s, heat index values will be at or just slightly higher than the air temperature, so heat headlines will not be issued. It will be a little warmer Monday night with lows in the upper 60s to the lower 70s.
A vigorous cold front Tuesday will produce scattered showers and gusty west winds.
(Today through Tuesday night) A similar day today as we had yesterday, as a ridge of high pressure continues to slowly skirt east. Overall, temperatures will be a bit cooler (by a few degrees), but surface moisture will be a bit higher and mid level lapse rates will be weaker. Upper flow will transition more zonal on Tuesday just north of the Panhandles, as the high attempts to.
A gradual eastward drift in the core of the upper level ridge (from Missouri to Kentucky) will allow 850 mb temperatures to climb 3 to 4 degrees C by Tuesday afternoon.
/16 ***************Previous************************* Rinse and repeat forecast through Monday as the large upper ridge just slowly builds over the southeastern US. Temperatures will continue to slowly nudge upwards as the ridge builds in leading to highs mainly in the mid 90s across the area.
Slightly cooler temperatures and a slight chance of rain showers and isolated thunderstorms south of I-20 today. Slightly cooler temperatures are expected today, mainly south of I-20 where there is a chance for increased cloud cover and showers.
For tonight, expecting quiet conditions for the area as ridging remains directly overhead.
(This afternoon through Monday) Omega block in the upper pattern continues, with a large high centered over the Central Plains and a ridge SE across GA. An upper trough extends S from E Canada to the Bahamas with another trough over the Great Basin. Low temperatures tonight will range from the upper 50s in the NE mountains to the lower 70s across the extreme SE. High temperatures Monday afternoon will range from lower 80s in the highest terrain of the NE to the lower to mid 90s elsewhere. Low temperatures early Tuesday morning will range from near 60 in the NE to the lower 70s across the extreme S.
1055 PM PDT Sun Aug 25 2024 A high pressure system moves in from the west resulting in a warming trend beginning today. Dry and warmer to hotter weather prevailing early to mid week then a slight cooling trend develops late in the week. High pressure continues to build in from the west this evening with a few high clouds streaming across the region. As the air mass aloft continues to warm, expecting warmer temperatures tonight especially as you head up in elevation and farther inland. Expecting minimum temperatures to lower into the 50's to low 60's across the lower elevations and low 60's to mid 70's in the higher elevations.
High temps will increase yet again by Monday, with moderate to high chances in seeing highs hit at least 95 degrees across the high desert and the Inland Empire.
(Today through Tuesday) High pressure will remain centered near the Appalachians through Tuesday. Continued low level thicknesses increase today and Tuesday, which should allow temperatures to be warmer over the next two days.
- A front will bring shower and thunderstorm chances to the region late this week into the weekend along with cooler conditions. An upper level ridge of high pressure will remain over the region again today. The warmest 850mb temperatures with this highs will be in place from southeastern Kansas into central Missouri across the area today allowing highs to warm into the middle to upper 90s. The upper level high will remain over the region on Tuesday but the center the 500mb high will start to shift to the east into east central Missouri. Heat index values will generally be around 100 degrees on Tuesday, as the high starts to move east, but portions of central Missouri could see heat index values approach 105 again on Tuesday.
Early morning satellite shows the departing upper level low continuing into Wyoming with wraparound moisture extending as far west as the Lost River region and as far south as the lower Snake Plain. Temperatures today will continue to run around 10 degrees below climatological norms before returning to within a few degrees of normal tomorrow under weak high pressure.
------------------------------------------------------------------- Upper ridging will slowly shift east and begin to flatten on Tuesday as Midwest troughing lifts and fills.
(Today and tonight) An upper level ridge currently centered roughly around the Kansas City area will continue to drift eastward slowly loosening its grip on our local weather. At the same time, an inverted trough/tutt will move inland on the Texas Gulf coast undercutting the ridge. A notable area of subsidence on the west side of the trough was noted in water vapor imagery and is picked up well in model guidance. This area of subsidence will continue to spread overhead this afternoon as the inverted trough moves inland. Also notable will be the weaker flow aloft overhead between the inverted trough and the southwest flow across the southwestern US into New Mexico. Surface temperatures in the lower 90s in the southwestern Panhandle will yield minimal to no capping by mid- afternoon and progged mixed layer instability values between 500- 1000 J/kg.
338 AM EDT Mon Aug 26 2024 Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected today, mainly across the higher terrain of central and southern Vermont and the Adirondacks.
(Tonight through Tuesday night) Key Message: - Medium to high chances (30-70%) of showers and thunderstorms today over the Coastal Plains, slightly decreasing to generally medium on Tuesday - Max heat index values generally 100-105 today, increasing to 103-108 Tuesday, will lead to a minor to moderate risk of heat- related impacts A mid to upper level low currently located over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico is currently producing a few showers and thunderstorms over the Upper Texas Coast and the open waters. This low will move northwest into the Victoria Crossroads region through the day today, making its way into the Hill Country tonight. Rain chances decrease to low (20-30%) tonight as the low moves northward and South Texas loses a major lifting mechanism.
Dry and slightly warmer today, with high temperatures in the low 90s for most places. Discussion: Overall, a very similar forecast to yesterday but a few degrees warmer as high pressure remains centered across our region. Otherwise, dry and warmer today with high temps in the lower 90s for most places.
/NEW/ /Through Tuesday/ An upper low drifting westward towards the TX Coastal Bend will usher greater Gulf moisture content back into North Texas today following a couple of days of aggressive mixing out of dewpoints. In addition, scattered shower and thunderstorm activity is expected to expand in coverage from Southeast Texas into Central Texas later today as broad lift associated with the low acts upon diurnal destabilization. While dynamic ascent with the low may keep some showers and thunderstorms ongoing overnight into Tuesday morning, the greatest rain chances locally will once again coincide with peak heating on Tuesday afternoon.
241 AM MDT Mon Aug 26 2024 KEY MESSAGES: - Cooler conditions with showers & isolated thunderstorms today. Locally heavier amounts are certainty possible with today's activity as well as the upper low pulls in more atmospheric moisture. Today's showers and thunderstorms will come to an end from west to east this evening through the overnight hours as the upper low moves into the Dakotas.
Temperatures continue to warm as upper-level ridge shifts eastward. Discussion: Upper-level ridge will shift eastward tonight and Monday with the 596-598 dam 500mb high centered over Missouri. In addition, boundary layer warming will continue under the influence of the anomalous upper ridge and subsidence with 850mb temperatures increasing slightly on Monday afternoon.
/26/ (This evening through Monday Night) Upper low spinning across the northern Gulf of Mexico attm, just south of the Southern La Coast.
High pressure to our NW will weaken and shift offshore. Surface and mid-level high pressure will dominate during the short term. However, weak subsidence under the expanding 5h ridge centered over the TN Valley will keep the region dry. Mid-level ridging in place Thu gradually weakens and sinks south Fri into Sat as large scale trough develops over eastern Canada. The base of the trough extending south from the Hudson Bay Low swings through the Great Lakes Sat and the Mid-Atlantic Sun. The associated cold front does not make it far enough south to be a concern, but the overall increase in moisture, precipitable water over 2 inches Sat/Sun, and the lack of mid-level resistance will lead to diurnal convection during the weekend. Through Tonight: High pressure to the NW of the area weakens and shifts offshore.
(Today through Tuesday) An upper low is currently located just off shore of the middle Texas coast, expected to move inland later this morning and continue moving west over South Central Texas through the day. Thunderstorms may taper off after sunset although scattered showers could linger over the Hill Country and areas east as the upper level low remains centered over South Central Texas. This low shifts further west on Tuesday bringing higher PoPs westward during the afternoon. Temperatures should be a bit "cooler" today in the east with increased cloud cover and rain chances with highs near or slightly below seasonable values.
This is due to upper level ridging building into the area today.
158 AM PDT Mon Aug 26 2024 Warm and dry conditions return this week with cooler temperatures later this weekend. Upper level ridging builds over the area as heights rise today.
235 AM MDT Mon Aug 26 2024 KEY MESSAGES: - Upper level low brings rain at times today and tonight mainly south of the Missouri River.
222 AM EDT Mon Aug 26 2024 High pressure will keep conditions mainly dry into the middle of this week as it becomes hot and humid. High pressure will shift southwestward as an upper level trough across the New England states sharpens and an associated frontal boundary brings scattered showers and thunderstorms to Maryland and northern Virginia. The ongoing warming trend will continue with high temperatures climbing into the lower 80s to the lower 90s.
(Today) Another hot day is in store across the region today under the continued influence of mid level ridging.
1206 AM CDT Mon Aug 26 2024 (This evening through Tuesday) High pressure, both at the sfc and aloft, rmnd centered to the northwest of the Natural State. A dry airmass was firmly in place acrs the FA, with dewpoints in the lower to mid 60s, with far western AR hovering arnd 70F. The aforementioned upper ridge wl drift slowly to the east-southeast in the coming days, remaining close enough to the FA to keep a hot and dry fcst in place.
(Today through Tuesday Night) A robust H500 ridge will remain centered just north of the state through tonight, easily the most dominant mid/upper level feature across the CONUS. Regionally, a weak H500 disturbance will move inland along the TX coast along the periphery of the high. While sfc ridging will remain anchored across the SE US, the H500 ridge will slowly drift toward the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys near the end of the period.
Quiet weather featuring light wind, clear skies, and cool temperatures is expected tonight as the trough starts to lift out of Nevada. Lows will once again be 5 to 10 degrees below normal tomorrow morning, which means temperatures in the low 70s for Las Vegas. However, the low is beginning to fill and lift north while its attendant cold front washes out over central portions of the CWA. As the low lifts out of the Great Basin tonight and tomorrow, heights quickly rise in its wake and a warming trend ensues. This is because a system moving along the US- Canada border keeps the ridge from amplifying further.
High temps today may see similar persistence numbers or perhaps a degree or two cooler with more cloudiness arriving later today. /24/ (Tuesday Night through Monday) Meanwhile, the upper ridge is over IA/MO at it's peak of 599/600dam. Little change in our overall pattern aside from the slight chances as the weakness lingers as an inverted trough keeping the Gulf open to our region for sea breeze activity.
A high pressure system moves in from the west resulting in a warming trend beginning today. Dry and warmer to hotter weather prevailing early to mid week then a slight cooling trend develops late in the week. High pressure continues to build in from the west this evening with a few high clouds streaming across the region. As the air mass aloft continues to warm, expecting warmer temperatures tonight especially as you head up in elevation and farther inland. Expecting minimum temperatures to lower into the 50's to low 60's across the lower elevations and low 60's to mid 70's in the higher elevations.
- A cold front Monday evening will begin to bring some relief from the heat, along with an enhanced risk of severe storms near the SD border, and a slight risk for the remainder of northeast Nebraska.
Off the coast the low continues to move to the west. All of this is in response to an upper level low that is moving west across the northwest Gulf of Mexico.
We have been getting some reprieve from the heat overnight thanks to the lower humidity. Temperatures will start in the low to mid 60s at sunrise but will quickly heat up this morning.
(Today) The dome of high pressure continues to be the main driver of the local weather forecast today. Under sunny skies it will feel quite warm outside today with forecast highs in the low to mid 90s in our eastern zones to upper 90s to low 100s along and west of I-65.
The heat will build over the next few days as upper level high pressure moves over the region. Little or no rain expected until at least the end of the week when a cold front moves into the region.
In the wake of that upper low feature, ridging aloft builds toward the Southeast through the period. The ridging will act to suppress most convection and keep us toasty today and tomorrow. POPs are slightly higher on Tuesday afternoon with 20- 30% chance generally south of I-10 (furthest from the influence of the ridging and dry air).
612 AM CDT Mon Aug 26 2024 (Today through Tuesday) An upper low is currently located just off shore of the middle Texas coast, expected to move inland later this morning and continue moving west over South Central Texas through the day. Thunderstorms may taper off after sunset although scattered showers could linger over the Hill Country and areas east as the upper level low remains centered over South Central Texas. This low shifts further west on Tuesday bringing higher PoPs westward during the afternoon. Temperatures should be a bit "cooler" today in the east with increased cloud cover and rain chances with highs near or slightly below seasonable values.
514 AM CDT Mon Aug 26 2024 (Today through Tuesday Night) A robust H500 ridge will remain centered just north of the state through tonight, easily the most dominant mid/upper level feature across the CONUS. Regionally, a weak H500 disturbance will move inland along the TX coast along the periphery of the high. While sfc ridging will remain anchored across the SE US, the H500 ridge will slowly drift toward the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys near the end of the period.
High pressure continues to dominate much of the United States, with the exception of the sweeping trough across the Great Basin region. As we move into the rest of the week, the previously mentioned ridge will elongate across much of the U.
High pressure remains in control with convective BL mixing this afternoon resulting in locally lower dew points and RH values. Dry and slightly warmer today, with high temperatures in the low 90s for most places. Discussion: Overall, a very similar forecast to yesterday but a few degrees warmer as high pressure remains centered across our region. Otherwise, dry and warmer today with high temps in the lower 90s for most places.
The highest risk level is 3 out of 5 (enhanced) for a part of west central Minnesota, including Grant County in our forecast area.
Upper ridging, that has been persistently sitting across the central CONUS for the last week, is finally pushing eastward as a trough crosses the northern Rockies. Then the main trough will cross the CWA this afternoon and evening, which will bring today's main event. The 06z HRRR showings storms developing early this afternoon across northeast WY, where the strongest forcing will be just ahead of the trough moving into central WY. The NAM is picking up on this, showing surface based convection in parts of WY and the Black Hills area, but then clouds and even an inversion in the lowest 4kft over the western/central SD plains. The trough will push through the CWA this evening, with subsidence taking over and precip ending.
620 AM CDT Mon Aug 26 2024 (Today through Tuesday) High pressure will remain centered near the Appalachians through Tuesday. Continued low level thicknesses increase today and Tuesday, which should allow temperatures to be warmer over the next two days.
Synoptically, the omega blocking pattern is still in place across CONUS with the ILN CWA on the eastern side of the ridging. WAA continues to build in from our west, and Monday high temperatures reach the low 90s with Tds in the mid 60s (keeping the "feels-like" temps also in the low 90s). Heat: with the highly amplified ridge in place, anomalously warm temperatures are expected through the area for much of the remainder of the week. Overnight lows Monday night only fall into the low 70s as a surge of moisture and warmth continue to work into our area from the west. This feature will start the process of deamplifying the ridge, breaking down the omega blocking pattern, and finally bringing us into a more active period.
A cooler and more stable airmass will be in place Monday before warming into Tuesday.
If the current cloud cover across northeast Minnesota lingers through the morning, the highest heat indices will be lower than forecast, but will still likely be in the 90s. A slow moving cold front located across northwestern Minnesota is leading to some light showers/sprinkles over western portions of our CWA. Showers and general thunderstorms continue through Tuesday afternoon and evening as the upper level trough sweeps through the region.
605 AM EDT Mon Aug 26 2024 High pressure will keep conditions mainly dry into the middle of this week as it becomes hot and humid. High pressure will shift southwestward as an upper level trough across the New England states sharpens and an associated frontal boundary brings scattered showers and thunderstorms to Maryland and northern Virginia. The ongoing warming trend will continue with high temperatures climbing into the lower 80s to the lower 90s.
Surface observations are reporting rainfall totals in the Upper Keys of up to a third of an inch of rain, but the Lower Keys are showing a much larger range. An Atlantic ridge stretching into the southeastern United States will begin slipping southward across Florida by mid week.
- A cold front will bring a more organized chance for showers and thunderstorms tonight, with severe weather possible (level 2 of 5).
634 AM CDT Mon Aug 26 2024 (Today through Tuesday night) A similar day today as we had yesterday, as a ridge of high pressure continues to slowly skirt east. Overall, temperatures will be a bit cooler (by a few degrees), but surface moisture will be a bit higher and mid level lapse rates will be weaker. Upper flow will transition more zonal on Tuesday just north of the Panhandles, as the high attempts to.
537 AM CDT Mon Aug 26 2024 The heat will build over the next few days as upper level high pressure moves over the region. Little or no rain expected until at least the end of the week when a cold front moves into the region.
BT KEY MESSAGES: - Cooler conditions with showers & isolated thunderstorms today. Locally heavier amounts are certainty possible with today's activity as well as the upper low pulls in more atmospheric moisture. Today's showers and thunderstorms will come to an end from west to east this evening through the overnight hours as the upper low moves into the Dakotas.
(Rest of Today) A strong mid/upper ridge will become centered over the Mid South and Ohio/Tennessee Valleys today as the hot/dry pattern continues across the region. Extremely light winds under this ridge will prevent any elevated fire weather concerns despite RHs flirting with critical values.
1000 AM CDT Mon Aug 26 2024 As of 9:30 AM CDT, temperatures have already reached the mid-80s under mid-to-upper level cloud cover that continues to rotate around an area of low pressure along the Texas coastline. High temps today may see similar persistence numbers or perhaps a degree or two cooler with more cloudiness arriving later today. /24/ (Tuesday Night through Monday) Meanwhile, the upper ridge is over IA/MO at it's peak of 599/600dam. Little change in our overall pattern aside from the slight chances as the weakness lingers as an inverted trough keeping the Gulf open to our region for sea breeze activity.
931 AM EDT Mon Aug 26 2024 Warm and muggy this morning with 9AM temperatures observed in the low to mid 80s across much of east central Florida. Weak high pressure centered off of the mid Atlc coast will continue to promote a light E/ESE wind flow across the local waters. A persistent pattern continues with light onshore (E/ESE) flow 6-12 kts thru the period as the ridge axis remains north of the local waters.
These clouds were associated with a small closed low noted spinning over the western Gulf. This feature has helped increase deep moisture over our southern and western zones but drier air will move back over our CWA today from the east as the closed low continues tracking west and a large 597dam high over the central Plains shifts east to the mid Mississippi valley by Tuesday morning. Early morning surface analysis had a 1022mb high centered over the southern Appalachians and ridging back to the southwest across our CWA.
714 AM EDT Mon Aug 26 2024 Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected today, mainly across the higher terrain of central and southern Vermont and the Adirondacks.
Sky conditions are expected to be mostly cloudy by mid afternoon south of I-20 with continued mid to upper level moisture being advected around the low off the coast of Louisiana today. These clouds were associated with a small closed low noted spinning over the western Gulf. This feature has helped increase deep moisture over our southern and western zones but drier air will move back over our CWA today from the east as the closed low continues tracking west and a large 597dam high over the central Plains shifts east to the mid Mississippi valley by Tuesday morning. Early morning surface analysis had a 1022mb high centered over the southern Appalachians and ridging back to the southwest across our CWA.