Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
448 AM EDT Thu Jun 19 2025 Today starts out dry, but a cold front is slated to move into the forecast area this afternoon into tonight bringing shower and thunderstorm chances to the area. Upper ridging returns for the end of this week and into the weekend as temperatures continue to warm along with continued chances for showers or thunderstorms. Key Message(s): - A cold front is expected to move through the area today, bringing chances for thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Mid to upper level trough currently extending from the Great Lakes region south to the Gulf Coast states is expected to move eastward through the day and tonight. This trough is forecast to send a surface front through the area this afternoon into evening.
Updated at 1237 AM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025 - Strong to severe storms will be ongoing through mid morning today as a cold front sinks through the region.
435 AM EDT Thu Jun 19 2025 A chance of showers and thunderstorms will continue today ahead of a cold front.
- Precipitation chances remain highest in the low/mid RGV.
- A dry forecast with slightly warmer than normal temperatures will prevail for the upcoming weekend. (Today and tonight) West Central Texas is in store for another warm and dry day today, as the upper-level ridge continues to build high pressure over the area and surface winds continue to bring warm and moist air into the region.
Afterwards, the upper level trough responsible for recent rainfall will move E with an upper ridge building into the Srn Rockies.
1231 AM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025 (Tonight through Thursday night) Key messages: - Typical hot summer weather with a moderate to breezy south- southeasterly flow A mid-level high remains centered over the Baja California Peninsula with the ridge extending eastward over TX. Surface winds are from the south-southeast thanks to a high pressure center over the Gulf. The upper ridge will weaken slightly as an inverted trough moves into South Texas.
The associated cold front is extended southwest through Ohio, Indiana, Illinois and Missouri. A secondary low has developed on the trailing cold front and is situated over the Missouri/Kansas state line. Through the remainder of the day, the cold front, that's draped across the Midwest, will slowly track through the Commonwealth and into the CWA. Highs for today will be cooler as the cold front will cause temperatures dip into the upper-70s to low-80s for Thursday.
Then, partial afternoon clearing and instability recovery followed by additional showers and storms late afternoon early evening ahead of the cold front.
1158 PM CDT Wed Jun 18 2025 - Scattered thunderstorms have initiated along and ahead of a cold front draped across northwestern MO this afternoon.
1152 PM CDT Wed Jun 18 2025 -Cooler temperatures expected today behind a cold front.
Rain chances will increase late today into Friday due to a slowly passing cold front. A strong ridge of high pressure over the eastern U.
While a ridge aloft will continue to dominate the overall pattern, a few weak disturbances are forecast to slip beneath it.
The pattern does not favor a big southward push of the system, but westerly deep layer flow is expected to veer to northwesterly following the trough passage, and this should allow for more southward propagation of the storm system as we go through today. Forecast confidence is on the low side regarding convective location/timing, especially as you go south toward the I-20 corridor where large scale ascent is weaker. Another potential hazard to monitor for is locally heavy rainfall potential along the Highway 82 corridor where there may be a few hours of repetitive storms/training given a balance between mesocale and synoptic scale influences and persistent moisture transport. Storms should continue into the early evening before diminishing some as the trough pulls away.
There will be a trough advecting across the Mid-Atlantic region today through tomorrow as well as a mid-to-upper level low advecting westward across Cuba, with both trying to erode the ridge. However, the ridge looks to be too strong for these disturbances to fully erode its presence and as a result the pattern remains relatively unchanged with an east to southeast wind flow across the region and any rain showers or isolated thunderstorms being a result of the sea breeze circulations and peak daytime heating. High temperatures will be mostly in the low 90s across the region except for coastal locations immediately along the Atlantic that peak in the upper 80s.
The GFS and ECMWF are consistent in moving the low into Ontario and Quebec later today. The showers will end once the upper trough axis (currently over the MS Valley) moves through this afternoon. - Convective chance small but not zero tonight/Friday night A building ridge will develop over the Plains later today and that will drift east to the MS Valley tomorrow. Short waves riding the ridge are expected to combine with an increasing LLJ during the late evening and fire convection over the upper MS Valley tonight and Friday night.
652 AM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025 Updated at 634 AM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025 - Strong to severe storms will be ongoing through mid morning today as a cold front sinks through the region.
There is still some low potential (~10%) that a storm could develop in the next several hours near the Red River given a modestly unstable and weakly capped environment, but chances are dwindling as mid level ridging continue to nose into the Southern Plains. Mid level ridging will expand into the Southern Plains on Thursday and keep things quiet through the end of the week.
- Precipitation chances remain highest in the low/mid RGV. (Tonight through Friday night) Deep tropical moisture will build across the area as a tropical wave moves westward into Mexico while ridging overhead begins to weaken. Rainfall chances across the lower/mid Valley will be 50-60% Thursday afternoon into the evening and increasing to 70-80% on Friday, while in the Northern Ranchlands into the upper Valley will be 30-50% Thursday to 50-70% on Friday. Temperatures will be near to slightly below normal with afternoon highs in the low to mid 90s with overnight lows in the mid to upper 70s.
The associated cold front is extended southwest through Ohio, Indiana, Illinois and Missouri. A secondary low has developed on the trailing cold front and is situated over the Missouri/Kansas state line. Through the remainder of the day, the cold front, that's draped across the Midwest, will slowly track through the Commonwealth and into the CWA. Highs for today will be cooler as the cold front will cause temperatures dip into the upper-70s to low-80s for Thursday. Overnight lows will start in the low 60s for Thursday night before climbing into to low to mid-60s for Friday night.
223 AM PDT Thu Jun 19 2025 - Big pattern change heading into the weekend with much cooler temperatures and rain showers.
Afterwards, the upper level trough responsible for recent rainfall will move E with an upper ridge building into the Srn Rockies. Heading into Friday, including the weekend, the ridge will shift Ewrd becoming centered over top the region.
1015 AM EDT Thu Jun 19 2025 A chance of showers and thunderstorms will continue today ahead of a cold front.
An upper trough will be moving towards the area from the northwest this afternoon. The net result will be cooler afternoon temperatures for the interior and gusty afternoon and early evening breezes east of the Cascades and interior westside valleys.
649 AM EDT Thu Jun 19 2025 A chance of showers and thunderstorms will continue today ahead of a cold front.
Meanwhile, upstream across MS we are watching what is left of a MCS cold pool moving south and westward almost similar to a backdoor cold front. Upper level trough exits leading to ridging overhead, which will help limit coverage of convection.
- The highest precipitation chances and rainfall amounts will reside primarily across the low/mid RGV. The highest precipitation chances (40-70%) will reside across Cameron, Willacy, and Hidalgo counties, which coincides with the highest moisture content, while low to medium precipitation chances (20-50%) across Starr, Zapata, Jim Hogg, Brooks, and Kenedy counties.
1012 AM PDT Thu Jun 19 2025 - Big pattern change heading into the weekend with much cooler temperatures and rain showers.
Overnight, a weak inverted trough approaches the coast and we could see an uptick in coverage during the late night and morning hours, especially along the southern Coastal bend.
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Upper ridging will keep very warm and dry weather across NE Montana today. That said, Friday and Friday evening especially will offer increasing chances for thunderstorms, some of which could be severe, as a cold front advances.
The upper level ridge has moved off to the east, and a high pressure center has settled right overhead. Upper level ridging moves in for the next several days, allowing for more sunshine and warm temperatures. Highs Friday top out in the low 90s with dewpoints in the 70s, giving us Heat Index values around 100.
* Temperatures are slightly cooler today, with isolated areas of moderate HeatRisk. * The main story through the end of the week will be the trough that's bringing in some strong gusty winds. Sierra ridge winds will be anomalously strong (at least for summertime) with gusts 60-80 mph. * Little to no potential for meaningful rain with this trough (bummer), but there is a 15% chance of showers and storms today for northeast CA and far northwest NV. As the upper trough digs southward on Friday, there will be a 30-60% chance for light rain along a line north of I-80, from Susanville through Gerlach and Pyramid Lake.
Similar to previous days, the bulk of the convective bubbling should begin to dissipate shortly after sunset with a quiet, but warmer overnight as lows will trend similar to last night, in the mid to upper 70's. That being said, current guidance does suggest lower dew points through the first half of the weekend as upper ridging arrives from the west. Friday rain chances, given the arrival of the ridge, look to be primarily confined to the south and southeastern zones as the early afternoon seabreeze advances north.
However, the synoptic cold front still looms off to our north and skies are clearing. However, the price comes through increasing temperatures that begin tomorrow thanks to ridging that builds into the region from the southwest.
/NEW/ /Today Through Friday Afternoon/ Mid-level ridging will spread east and overtake the majority of the CONUS today and tomorrow, leading to hot and mostly dry conditions across North and Central Texas through the rest of the week. /NEW/ /Friday Night Onward/ The aforementioned ridge will be shunted into the eastern CONUS this weekend in response to the onshore movement of a deepening PACNW closed low. However, we will remain under the general influence of the ridge through the rest of the forecast period, with warm, humid, and mostly dry conditions continuing.
For Friday, dry conditions with upper ridge building into the area and mid-level capping inversion. Warmer temperatures with plenty of sunshine. Discussion: NBM Cluster Analysis are in agreement with a building ridge of high pressure over the Tennessee valley and southern Appalachian through the week. Temperatures will climb into the lower and middle 90s for much of the Tennessee valley. As low-level moisture returns during the week heat indices will climb into the upper 90s to the lower 100s (possibly up to 105 degrees). Chattanooga Airport, TN 68 90 68 92 / 20 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 66 87 66 91 / 30 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 65 87 65 90 / 20 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 62 84 61 88 / 30 0 0 0.
This band, fueled by the upper level trough overhead and daytime heating ahead of it, will continue south and east through the afternoon and into the evening. As the broad upper level trough moves east tonight into Friday, we'll likely see another round of scattered showers and thunderstorms tomorrow. However, with the trough moving out, low- mid level flow turning northwesterly to northerly, and drier mid- level air moving in behind the feature it's possible we'll see a reduction in shower and storm chances tomorrow afternoon compared to today, especially across our Alabama and Georgia counties.
Higher altitude blow-off clouds exiting the complex were heading to the east and NE, as an upper trough nears from the west. After the rain and extensive clouds, 11 AM temperatures were only the mid/upper 60s to lower 70s, a good 10-15 degrees cooler than temperatures usually run around this time of year.
1232 PM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025 Updated at 1224 PM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025 - Strong to severe storms will be ongoing through mid morning today as a cold front sinks through the region.
428 PM PDT Thu Jun 19 2025 - Big pattern change heading into the weekend with much cooler temperatures and rain showers.
406 PM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025 Weak upper troughing shifts east of the area as we head into Friday with upper ridging beginning to build across the region. Temperatures remain warm in the lower to middle 90's for highs with lows in the lower to middle 70's. MM/25 A typical summer diurnal pattern continues through the period as a large upper high pressure area dominates the eastern half of the U. Temperatures will average up to 5 degrees above normal through the extended, with highs in the middle 90s inland and the lower 90s along the beaches and barrier islands. Low temperatures interior areas will be in the lower to middle 70s and the upper 70s along the beaches and barrier islands.
Overnight, a weak inverted trough approaches the coast and we could see an uptick in coverage during the late night and morning hours, especially along the southern Coastal Bend.
It's your typical hot, humid summer day, marred here and there with some showers and thunderstorms, but subsidence from the subtropical ridge is just strong enough to largely keep afternoon convection at bay. Through the morning, we see some coastal showers and the development of cumulus across the area while we warm up to the lower 90s and 100+ heat index values. Tomorrow looks even more like a win for subsidence as the peak of the subtropical ridge drifts across the region and off to the Deep South, strengthening slightly as it does so.
This will cause mid level ridging over the Florida Peninsula to flatten out a bit, however, the ridge does hold strong as the trough axis passes well off to the north of the region. At the surface, strong high pressure centered over the western Atlantic will remain in place allowing for a light to moderate southeasterly wind flow to continue through the rest of the week. High temperatures today and Friday will generally remain in the upper 80s along the coasts to the lower 90s across the interior sections.
/NEW/ /Through Friday Evening/ The axis of a strong mid level ridge will pass from west to east directly overhead tonight, becoming centered over the Lower Mississippi Valley on Friday. Will keep an eye on the line of storms approaching the Arklatex, but subsidence associated with the ridge and loss of surface instability after sunset should shut it down before reaching Lamar County. /Issued 1235 PM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025/ /Friday Night Onward/ The aforementioned ridge will be shunted into the eastern CONUS this weekend in response to the onshore movement of a deepening PACNW closed low. However, we will remain under the general influence of the ridge through the rest of the forecast period, with warm, humid, and mostly dry conditions continuing.
pdf Evening convection across SE GA and portions of the Suwannee River Valley ahead of a pre-frontal trough will continue to decrease in coverage and intensity through 10 pm as daytime instability wanes, however, cannot completely rule-out a rouge shower or isolated storms especially after midnight across the Suwannee River Valley south of the I-10 corridor where Gulf instability noses inland just head of the front and could fuel some early morning convection. After 06z, potential for rainfall tappers off as multi-layered cloudiness lingers across the terminals tonight as the pre-frontal trough lingers across the region.
814 PM EDT Thu Jun 19 2025 Remaining more on the dry side overnight tonight with a cold front moving into the forecast area tonight and into Friday morning. Upper ridging returns for the end of this week and into the weekend as temperatures continue to warm along with continued chances for showers or thunderstorms. Outside of the low chance for a shower/storm in the coming hours, a cold front slowly works toward the FA, reaching the region by Friday morning with dry conditions overnight expected.
212 PM PDT Thu Jun 19 2025 - Big pattern change heading into the weekend with much cooler temperatures and rain showers.
705 PM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025 Weak upper troughing shifts east of the area as we head into Friday with upper ridging beginning to build across the region. Temperatures remain warm in the lower to middle 90's for highs with lows in the lower to middle 70's. MM/25 A typical summer diurnal pattern continues through the period as a large upper high pressure area dominates the eastern half of the U. Temperatures will average up to 5 degrees above normal through the extended, with highs in the middle 90s inland and the lower 90s along the beaches and barrier islands. Low temperatures interior areas will be in the lower to middle 70s and the upper 70s along the beaches and barrier islands.
The upper level ridge has moved off to the east, and a high pressure center has settled right overhead. Upper level ridging moves in for the next several days, allowing for more sunshine and warm temperatures. Highs Friday top out in the low 90s with dewpoints in the 70s, giving us Heat Index values around 100. Highs and the Heat Index will be similar to Friday, in the low 90s and around 100 respectively.
321 AM EDT Fri Jun 20 2025 A weak cold front will stall over the area through tonight. A strong ridge of high pressure will then build in over the eastern U. Key Messages/Highlights: *Very low risk of a severe storm w/ damaging wind gusts this aftn east of I-95, mainly in NC *Temps near to slightly above normal Confidence: *Moderate to High Details: Showers/storms along a pre-frontal trough have mainly stayed north of our forecast area across SE NC & NE SC but still can't rule out a few early this morning as a weak cold front approaches from the NW, especially in NC closer to the better moisture/forcing.
High temperatures will top out in the lower to middle 90s. Models show the baroclinic zone lifting northward later today as upper ridging builds over the region. Given rising heights and increasing amounts of sunshine, high temperatures will climb into the lower to middle 90s on Saturday. These temps combined with dewpoints in the lower 70s will result in afternoon heat index values peaking above 100 degrees.
(Today through Saturday) Ensembles and global guidance show persisting mid level ridging over the region, while high pressure sfc also dominates the western Atlantic and the Florida peninsula through the short term. High temperatures today and Saturday will generally reach the low 90s, warmest today, along with heat index values in the 100 to 105 range across most of the area each afternoon.
- Upper High to keep rain chances at a minimum through Saturday with hot and humid conditions as max afternoon heat index values will be around 105 degrees.
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Waves on SW flow aloft will combine with warm and unstable air today and a cold front to bring chances for showers and thunderstorms along with some severe thunderstorms.
143 AM EDT Fri Jun 20 2025 Remaining more on the dry side overnight tonight with a cold front moving into the forecast area tonight and into Friday morning. Upper ridging returns for the end of this week and into the weekend as temperatures continue to warm along with continued chances for showers or thunderstorms. Outside of the low chance for a shower/storm in the coming hours, a cold front slowly works toward the FA, reaching the region by Friday morning with dry conditions overnight expected.
Friday to Saturday, a low pressure system will return widespread rain showers across northwest Oregon and southwest Washington.
Satellite imagery this afternoon shows flow aloft turning to the southwest as an upper low slides down the BC coast. Tomorrow through Saturday, the previously mentioned upper level low will swing into the PacNW with widespread shower chances across the forecast area. On Saturday, another round of slight chances of thunderstorms will be possible across the eastern mountains as the broad circulation of the upper low centers over eastern OR/WA. 5kft during this period, allowing for light snow or rain/snow mix showers to develop across the higher mountain areas. Breezy to windy conditions will develop through the Cascade gaps and into the lower elevations both days, though the strongest winds (gusts 40-45mph in the Gorge and Kittitas valley) are expected Friday with the initial push of a cooler airmass into the region.
An upper level ridge is expected to trudge eastward, expanding north over our area beginning today. High temperatures are expected to be a couple of degrees warmer than yesterday under increasing sunshine.
Wet and cooler weather returns Friday and Saturday as an upper level low moves overhead.
109 AM PDT Fri Jun 20 2025 - Big pattern change heading into the weekend with much cooler temperatures and rain showers.
Mid level ridging slowly transitions east today offering very little change from day to day.
This afternoon, high temperatures are forecast to warm into the upper 80s to lower 90s as an upper level ridge moves into the area from the west.
203 AM EDT Fri Jun 20 2025 Drier with lower humidity (but still hot) Friday into Saturday behind a departing cold front.
- Max temperatures will rise into the low to mid 90s by the end of the work week with min temps hovering in the mid 70s range. A trough is extending over the eastern US down to the central Gulf Coast with our CWA on the western tail of it. Additionally, there is an area of high pressure out west that is steadily making its way eastward. This upper ridge will be directly overhead by tomorrow afternoon / evening. By Saturday, the ridge will be slightly off to our east, giving near similar conditions with only isolated PoPs. With the ridge coming in and less coverage expected, MaxTs will rise a few degree or so. MinTs will be remain in the low to mid 70s.
1014 PM PDT Thu Jun 19 2025 - Big pattern change heading into the weekend with much cooler temperatures and rain showers.
For Friday, dry conditions with upper ridge building into the area and mid-level capping inversion. Warmer temperatures with plenty of sunshine.
/NEW/ /Through Saturday/ A building mid-level ridge across the eastern half of the CONUS will promote seasonably hot and mostly rain free weather to end the workweek and begin the weekend.
311 AM MST Fri Jun 20 2025 Slightly cooler today than yesterday but still hotter than normal with highs in Tucson and Safford from 108 to 110 and 100 to 106 in other desert locations.
Upper ridging then filters back into the region into the weekend bringing a warming trend to the region. Afternoon highs are forecast to be in the lower 90s, but with the drier air moving in, temps could be slightly warmer than the current forecast. In the upper levels, anomalous high pressure ridge will build east across the MS and TN Valleys, and temps will still climb into the low to mid 90's Saturday afternoon.
Slightly cooler conditions will build in Friday, but winds will stay gusty with low relative humidity and critical fire weather conditions. A dry cold front will track from north to south Friday evening through Saturday, bringing cooler conditions, lighter winds, and lower fire danger.
Cooler than normal temperatures today will continue into the weekend.
553 AM CDT Fri Jun 20 2025 - Upper High to keep rain chances at a minimum through Saturday with hot and humid conditions as max afternoon heat index values will be around 105 degrees.