Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Dewpoints will drop into the upper 20s to near freezing and the temperatures will follow quickly. But tonight's fog will have a much better chance at being freezing fog given the temperatures. The southeast is a bit uncertain as it may not get down to freezing, and there may be enough of the system lingering that the clearing doesn't support fog, but just low ceilings due to the residual rain. The fog should clear out late Saturday morning and with mostly clear skies we should warm up into the lower to mid 50s.
Additional fog development is expected through the end of the week given the warmer temps and melting snowpack.
However, the latest SREF suggests that fog may linger or even increase along the Lower Texas Coast during the day. A weak coastal trough/low will support isolated showers and thunderstorms over the Gulf waters today and tonight. A cold front/another surge of high pressure moves into Deep South Texas late tonight into Saturday morning. Saturday will be mild with highs in the lower 70s with moderate to breezy north winds.
Low pressure (1007 MB) tracking through northwest Ohio early this morning, allowing heavier showers to taper off by 12z. It remains a real close call with the storm system coming out of the Gulf Coast states for the second half of the weekend, with northern stream trough tracking through the northern Great Lakes.
- Rain chances return late tonight into Saturday, with the highest chances (60-80%) and amounts (0. An upper-level low and associated trough translate across the Southern Plains today, with the recent trends supporting less rainfall amounts and chances across the area with the approaching system. The highest chances (60-80%) are along the Missouri/Arkansas border, with amounts ranging from a quarter to a half inch. Temperatures remain in the lower 40s through Saturday afternoon, with overnight lows falling into the lower 30s.
Recent GOES-16 WV and RAP 500-mb analysis showed an amplifying trough moving from the southern Rockies into the southern Plains. Further southwest of this feature, an upper- level ridge was overhead the Pacific Northwest into southern California. Currently, dense fog persists across portions of south central into central and north central Nebraska, with the lowest visibilities reported at O'Neill and Broken Bow. Upper-level height rises tonight will allow clouds to begin to clear out with lows falling into the low 20s.
409 AM EST Fri Jan 26 2024 Weak high pressure will try to build in from the west today, providing a break in rain. But more precipitation will spread into the area late Saturday and Saturday night as low pressure lifts up the western side of the Appalachians. As low pressure in northern Ohio moves away from the region, winds will diminish this morning. Weak ridging will remain over the area tonight. But moisture trapped in the low layers will keep skies cloudy. Low pressure in the lower Mississippi Valley will lift into middle Tennessee during the day with an inverted trough extending along the western slopes of the central Appalachians.
Here, temperatures will be several degrees cooler, with highs mainly in the 50s, while much of the rest of the area should top out in the 60s. An upper level low will track across North Texas today. A cold front will move through the area this evening, resulting in gusty north to northwest winds. Expect overnight lows in the low to mid 40s.
- Light rain or drizzle will continue across the region today and tonight, with very localized freezing drizzle possible in far northeast WI this morning, and a light wintry mix possible from central into northeast WI this evening. Temperatures have warmed above freezing over all of GRB CWA early this morning, so the threat of freezing precipitation has diminished, though a small chance remains over far NE WI early this morning. A weak and shallow cold front should bring enough wind and drier air to the region to alleviate the fog concerns on Saturday. Temperatures will remain much above normal through the period, with highs in the middle to upper 30s today and Saturday, and lows in the lower to middle 30s tonight.
644 AM EST Fri Jan 26 2024 Weak high pressure will try to build in from the west today, providing a break in rain. But more precipitation will spread into the area late Saturday and Saturday night as low pressure lifts up the western side of the Appalachians. As low pressure in northern Ohio moves away from the region, winds will diminish this morning. Weak ridging will remain over the area tonight. But moisture trapped in the low layers will keep skies cloudy. Low pressure in the lower Mississippi Valley will lift into middle Tennessee during the day with an inverted trough extending along the western slopes of the central Appalachians.
With clouds continuing to clear from west to east overnight, lows will fall into the low to mid 20s area wide.
The pressure gradient in the wake of the low has remained tight enough to support westerly winds of 5-10mph, which have thus far sufficiently mixed the boundary layer and prevented the re- development of dense fog. As the low moves further away and the gradient relaxes, think decreasing winds will lead to thickening fog and at least patches of dense fog. Skies will remain overcast throughout the day with mild high temperatures mostly in the lower to middle 40s. Latest models show low pressure forming over southeast Texas later today. As the low passes southeast of central Illinois, light rain will spread into parts of the KILX CWA Saturday afternoon into Saturday night.
Regarding temperatures highs through the weekend will range near or slightly above normal in the lower to mid 30s.
600 AM CST Fri Jan 26 2024 - Freezing drizzle and patchy dense fog this morning are causing travel impacts including low visibility and slick roadways. - Stratus, mist, fog, and freezing drizzle are possible once more tonight, especially for the Red River Valley and points east.
501 AM MST Fri Jan 26 2024 - Most snow comes to an end today though some lingering snow showers over the higher terrain not out of the question. - High pressure starts building in over the weekend as a warmup begins. Some light snow will be possible through the day for the higher terrain but don't anticipate much in the way of accumulation, thus the cancellation. By the afternoon hours, plenty of sun is expected except for the mountains, they'll still have to deal with some thicker clouds High temps will be similar to yesterday, maybe 2 to 4 degrees cooler thanks to northerly flow, but nothing too drastic expected. Models remain in excellent agreement that high pressure will start building in tomorrow and beyond.
These rain chances will be increasing with activity becoming a little more organized by this evening as the main mid/upper level trough axis be- gins to dig south and east. The passage of the cold front Sat morning will bring much cooler/drier air to SE TX for the upcoming weekend. As for temperatures, we'll stay near normal levels today and tonight with highs generally in the lower to mid 60s, with lows in the lower to mid 50s. In the wake of the cold front, highs on Sat should range from the mid 50s north to the upper 50s and lower 60s central/coast. Sat night will be chilly once again with lows in the upper 30s north to the lower 40s central/south.
Severe weather chances are expected to remain on the low end with the main concern being isolated flash flooding due to the heavy rainfall on already saturated grounds. High temperatures are expected to be in the lower 40s to the lower 60s through the period with overnight lows in the lower 30s to upper 40s.
447 AM MST Fri Jan 26 2024 - Most snow comes to an end today though some lingering snow showers over the higher terrain not out of the question. - High pressure starts building over the weekend as a warmup begins. By the afternoon hours, plenty of sun is expected except for the mountains, they'll still have to deal with some thicker clouds High temps will be similar to yesterday, maybe 2 to 4 degrees cooler thanks to northerly flow, but nothing too drastic expected. Models remain in excellent agreement that high pressure will start building in tomorrow and beyond.
An upper level trough will emerge from the Southern Rockies and move east into West Texas. The approach of the upper trough should also result in surface cyclogenesis over Central Texas, further increasing ascent.
954 AM CST Fri Jan 26 2024 - Freezing drizzle and patchy dense fog this morning are causing travel impacts including low visibility and slick roadways. - Stratus, mist, fog, and freezing drizzle are possible once more tonight, especially for the Red River Valley and points east.
Otherwise dry, mild, and mostly cloudy conditions are forecast for today as southerly flow will help to warm highs into the lower 60s in most locations.
So this will be where the highest amounts of rain will fall. Then as the colder air moves in Saturday night, lows will dip down into the low 30s for most of the area, while far eastern portions of the area will be in the mid to upper 30s.
1128 AM CST Fri Jan 26 2024 - Freezing drizzle and patchy dense fog this morning are causing travel impacts including low visibility and slick roadways. - Stratus, mist, fog, and freezing drizzle are possible once more tonight, especially for the Red River Valley and points east.
Afternoon highs will reach the low-mid 50s north of I-40 and mid- upper 50s south of I-40.
Some lingering low clouds and isolated snow showers remain over eastern Arizona this morning as a trough departs eastward into New Mexico. The last in a series of winter systems continues its journey eastward with the upper-level trough axis already over New Mexico.
1257 PM CST Fri Jan 26 2024 - Freezing drizzle and patchy dense fog this morning are causing travel impacts including low visibility and slick roadways. - Stratus, mist, fog, and freezing drizzle are possible once more tonight, especially for the Red River Valley and points east.
Deep southerly flow ahead of this feature and its associated cold front will continue to advect in deep moisture from the Gulf of Mexico as evidenced by PWATs climbing between 1.
1055 AM MST Fri Jan 26 2024 - Most snow comes to an end today though some lingering snow showers over the higher terrain not out of the question. - High pressure starts building in over the weekend as a warmup begins. Some light snow will be possible through the day for the higher terrain but don't anticipate much in the way of accumulation, thus the cancellation. By the afternoon hours, plenty of sun is expected except for the mountains, they'll still have to deal with some thicker clouds High temps will be similar to yesterday, maybe 2 to 4 degrees cooler thanks to northerly flow, but nothing too drastic expected. Models remain in excellent agreement that high pressure will start building in tomorrow and beyond.
(Rest of today through Saturday) A persistent mid-level ridge across the Bahamas will continue to bring abnormally warm conditions to South Florida through the early part of the weekend. As the low level southeasterly flow weakens a bit tonight and skies remain partly cloudy, conditions may become favorable for patchy dense fog to develop west of Lake Okeechobee. Winds become more southerly on Saturday, ushering in a little bit warmer air, but otherwise conditions will remain benign. High temperatures today are forecast to reach the low 80s along both coasts as well as the potential of a few inland locations to reach the middle 80s. With a little warmer and southerly winds, highs on Saturday will be in the low to even mid 80s across the area with heat indices reaching the upper 80s to near 90.
An upper ridge is building over the western CONUS. For Saturday through the coming week, the upper ridge will broaden and build eastward toward the forecast area resulting in dry weather and warmer than average temperatures, due to warm air advection and warming/drying westerly downslope flow.
(This evening through Saturday) Main focus right now is the precipitation that is currently occurring over portions of the South Plains and Rolling Plains due to the mid/upper level low sitting directly over the FA. Rain is expected to continue over most of the FA through this afternoon before clearing out to the east following the low as is moves eastward the rest of today into tomorrow. Winds will be light and slowly backing from the northeast to the northwest as the low moves away from the FA. Slightly warmer high temperatures tomorrow in the 50s across the region.
Areas of dense fog, mainly west of Boise (including the Lower Treasure Valley and Upper Weiser Basin), will persist for the remainder of this morning as the latest obs and webcams show little to no improvement. Precipitation will spread into SE Oregon along a warm front this afternoon. Snow levels begin at 3-4 kft MSL, and quickly rise to 7-8 kft MSL following a warm front passage. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: W 10-20 kt, becoming W 20-40 kt behind the warm front.
Above average temperatures and increased humidity continues today as a high pressure system situated over the Atlantic keeps the southeasterly flow over the area.
This would likely lead us to reach temperatures a few degrees warmer than currently forecast. Meanwhile, winds will remain westerly on Friday, then shift to the NW Friday night, so temperatures will only be nominally cooler following yesterday's fropa.
A push of cooler air will also arrive behind the system with breezy north winds Saturday morning.
(This afternoon through Saturday night) Showers and isolated thunderstorms continue percolating across Southeast New Mexico and the Permian Basin this afternoon as the low responsible for today's unsettled weather slowly meanders across the South Plains. As moisture is wrapped around the back side of this low, the ongoing showers will continue and expand in coverage through early this evening, especially across the Permian Basin, gradually moving eastward as the low treks into the Red River Valley tonight. Gusty winds will taper off after sunset, with a cold front progged to slide south into the area, resulting in a more northwesterly to northerly wind shift overnight.
155 PM MST Fri Jan 26 2024 A nice weekend is on tap for Southern Arizona as high pressure settles in over the region. An upper level ridge continues to build across the SW part of the US.
144 PM EST Fri Jan 26 2024 Weak high pressure will try to build in from the west today, providing a break in rain. But more precipitation will spread into the area late Saturday and Saturday night as low pressure lifts up the western side of the Appalachians. As low pressure in northern Ohio moves away from the region, winds will diminish later this morning. Weak ridging will remain over the area tonight. But moisture trapped in the low layers will keep skies cloudy. Low pressure in the lower Mississippi Valley will lift into middle Tennessee during the day with an inverted trough extending along the western slopes of the central Appalachians.
Temperatures through the late afternoon into the evening hours likely won't fluctuate much, but we should see them steadily decline overnight into the low 40s due to weak cold air advection.
(This evening through Saturday night) 20z WV satellite shows an upper low over W TX just to our south with multiple perturbations rounding this feature. In the northwestern Panhandles, light snow is ongoing as temperatures there are just a bit above freezing and, given temperature profile seen in that 12z RAOB, no warm nose is present. This afternoon and evening, with the upper low still shifting eastward, expect additional showers. Tonight, primary focus is if our dense fog recurs with this being potentially impactful as temperatures fall to or below freezing. Saturday, widespread sunshine triumphantly returns in the wake of Friday's upper low.
138 PM MST Fri Jan 26 2024 - Dense fog/freezing fog will return to the eastern parts of the area tonight. Some zones in the east will see wrap-around moisture from the exiting system interact with a nosing ridge axis. Going into the upcoming weekend, after morning fog dissipates in the east, a decent weekend awaits for all as an upper ridge builds slowly east off the Rockies, creating northerly flow aloft.
333 PM EST Fri Jan 26 2024 Weak high pressure will build in tonight, allowing for relatively dry conditions. Low pressure lifting from the lower Mississippi Valley into the middle Ohio Valley will bring cold rain or snow late Saturday and Saturday night.
217 PM EST Fri Jan 26 2024 -NWS Marquette record warm low for today, the 26th, will easily be broken (previous: 26, 2012) -Periods of fog/low clouds will persist into Saturday morning as moist dewpoints remain over snowpack in the low levels.
1010 AM EST Fri Jan 26 2024 Weak high pressure will try to build in from the west today, providing a break in rain. But more precipitation will spread into the area late Saturday and Saturday night as low pressure lifts up the western side of the Appalachians. As low pressure in northern Ohio moves away from the region, winds will diminish later this morning. Weak ridging will remain over the area tonight. But moisture trapped in the low layers will keep skies cloudy. Low pressure in the lower Mississippi Valley will lift into middle Tennessee during the day with an inverted trough extending along the western slopes of the central Appalachians.
Low pressure will deepen over the Tennessee Valley tomorrow, which will tighten the pressure gradient just enough over the Great Lakes to result in light northerly flow, and hopefully a bit of dry advection to limit additional fog. Temperatures will vary little tonight through tomorrow night, with lows in the low to mid 30s, and highs in the mid to upper 30s.
1122 AM CST Fri Jan 26 2024 - Rain chances return late tonight into Saturday, with the highest chances (60-80%) and amounts (0. An upper-level low and associated trough translate across the Southern Plains today, with the recent trends supporting less rainfall amounts and chances across the area with the approaching system. The highest chances (60-80%) are along the Missouri/Arkansas border, with amounts ranging from a quarter to a half inch. Temperatures remain in the lower 40s through Saturday afternoon, with overnight lows falling into the lower 30s.
Both of these features will push east through the short term period, bringing a cold front through south-central Texas through this evening and overnight.
223 PM CST Fri Jan 26 2024 - Freezing drizzle and fog look to reform/stay overnight, especially in Minnesota.
As this water moves downriver, the lower Grand River will also continue to see rising water levels.
303 PM EST Fri Jan 26 2024 -NWS Marquette record warm low for today, the 26th, will easily be broken (previous: 26, 2012) -Periods of fog/low clouds will persist into Saturday morning as moist dewpoints remain over snowpack in the low levels.
- High pressure builds over the region this weekend sustaining warmer than normal temperatures.
While any gustier locations will remain a bit warmer.
A few models suggest some snow flurries or very light freezing rain on the tail end of this precipitation.
High pressure centered near Bermuda reaches across Florida into the eastern Gulf of Mexico.
However, currently not expecting any impactful snow/ice accumulations from this activity as QPF will be winding down quickly, and sfc temps should remain above freezing. With extensive cloud cover projected to remain overhead and breezy northerly winds in place, afternoon highs in the low 40s are forecast for much of the area Saturday (mid 40s SE OK). While clouds will slowly erode from west to east Saturday night, it currently appears that the lowest levels of the atmosphere will remain saturated through the night.
Temperatures running several degrees above freezing has negated any freezing rain concerns. Would expect readings to again fall near to a bit above freezing.
200 PM CST Fri Jan 26 2024 - One final period of dense fog/freezing fog is expected tonight into the morning hours Saturday, with visibility down to a quarter mile in many places.
- Even warmer temperatures to end the month & start February.
1232 PM EST Fri Jan 26 2024 -Record warm low potential again today (previous: 26, 2012) -Periods of fog/low clouds could persist into at least early Saturday as moist dewpoints remain in the low levels.
Water vapor imagery highlights a positively tilted long wave trough sliding east across the Plains. Dewpoints have returned to the lower 70s.
High pressure will build in briefly tonight. Subsidence will continue to trap the low clouds. Winds will diminish as high pressure moves in. The low level jet will bring most of the moisture to the southeast of the area, but enough will be around to go with likely or higher PoPs Saturday afternoon across the southeastern half or so of the forecast area (closer to the forcing). Temperatures will be in the lower and middle 40s for highs. Questions arise on where low pressure will end up before the one east of the Appalachians takes over. NAM is farther west with the forcing and is colder, while GFS is farther east and a little warmer.
00Z APX sounding has multiple melting layers below 840mb, but overall that layer is much cooler than 24 hours ago. Min temps near to slightly above freezing. Temperatures running several degrees above freezing has negated any freezing rain concerns. Would expect readings to again fall near to a bit above freezing.
648 PM EST Fri Jan 26 2024 Weak high pressure will build in tonight, allowing for relatively dry conditions. Low pressure lifting from the lower Mississippi Valley into the middle Ohio Valley will bring cold rain or snow late Saturday and Saturday night.
(Tonight through Saturday night) Key Messages: - Patchy to areas of fog tonight - Cold front moving through the area overnight Patchy fog and drizzle has developed across portions of the Coastal Bend this afternoon leading to visibilities down to 1 mile or less at some locations. As a pre-frontal trough moves in over the next few hours, conditions are likely to improve with the visibilities lifting above 6 miles. However, latest model guidance indicates another round of patchy to areas of fog developing late tonight into early Saturday morning ahead of an approaching cold front. Saturday night will be much cooler with lows falling into the 40s areawide under clear to mostly clear skies and a light north to northwesterly wind.
858 PM EST Fri Jan 26 2024 RAP 500 MB analysis and water vapor imagery shows an upper level low pressure system over the south-central plains with plenty of moisture ahead of the trough through the Tennessee Valley this evening. Temperatures through the late afternoon into the evening hours likely won't fluctuate much, but we should see them steadily decline overnight into the low 40s due to weak cold air advection.
823 PM CST Fri Jan 26 2024 - One final period of dense fog/freezing fog is expected tonight into the morning hours Saturday, with visibility down to a quarter mile in many places.
- One final period of dense fog/freezing fog is expected tonight into the morning hours Saturday, with visibility down to a quarter mile in many places.
A low pressure system will track from the Texas Gulf coast into east Tennessee tonight through Saturday night bringing another round of rain and a few thunderstorms to the Mid-South.
543 PM CST Fri Jan 26 2024 (This afternoon through Saturday night) Showers and isolated thunderstorms continue percolating across Southeast New Mexico and the Permian Basin this afternoon as the low responsible for today's unsettled weather slowly meanders across the South Plains. As moisture is wrapped around the back side of this low, the ongoing showers will continue and expand in coverage through early this evening, especially across the Permian Basin, gradually moving eastward as the low treks into the Red River Valley tonight. Gusty winds will taper off after sunset, with a cold front progged to slide south into the area, resulting in a more northwesterly to northerly wind shift overnight.