Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A few isolated thunderstorms will also be possible across the far northern tier this afternoon in the closest vicinity to the trough as it swings across the region. Broken to overcast mid-level ceilings are expected to persist through much of the day, which will keep temperatures this afternoon slightly cooler than the previous couple of days. By Saturday, the trough axis will have moved away to the east, and a broad ridge will be in place across the Midwest. The combined effects of the ridge and increasing pressure will lead to drying conditions across north Georgia, with better atmospheric moisture confined to south Georgia and along the Gulf Coast. With clearing skies, high temperatures will rise into the low to mid 80s on Saturday afternoon.
Southerly surface flow will put us right back into the low to mid 90s tomorrow afternoon, with a bit of breeziness in northwest Oklahoma.
Main impact will be cold front pushing thorugh eastern Idaho this afternoon and evening producing strong winds. Will be much cooler Saturday with highs in the 50s to 60s mountains and mid 60s to lower 70s valleys much closer to early October normal.
A trough off the Pacific NW coast will move inland today, bringing a dry cold front. The cold front moves through eastern OR this afternoon and across southwest Idaho late afternoon into the evening. Surface winds along the front increase to 40 to 50 mph on the ridgetops as the front moves through, with 30 to 40 mph in the valleys.
(Tonight through Saturday night) An upper level low is located over northern Mexico this afternoon expected to remain in this general vicinity through tomorrow.
1229 PM CDT Fri Oct 4 2024 (Rest of Today) Dry conditions have persisted this morning as an upper ridge remains centered over the western Atlantic and weak upper troughing shifts east through the Great Lakes. Will be on the warmer side of seasonal norms today, with afternoon highs climbing into the low to mid 80s. Have maintained a low chance (10-20%) for showers and thunderstorms along and east of I-65 where weak convergence associated with the upper trough may generate enough lift to support a few storms.
1209 PM CDT Fri Oct 4 2024 (Today and tonight) Upper level high pressure centered over the Four Corners has begun to expand eastward over the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles with further expansion southward over the forecast area expected today which will displace the weak upper trough that has been overhead to the south of the region. Despite the increase in mid level geopotential heights, highs today will be cooler than those of yesterday as a modest cold front will be moving through the forecast during the early morning hours today. The cooler temperatures will be most pronounced across the northwestern part of the forecast area with the least effect across the southeast.
Overnight these southerly winds will increase as the high drifts east and the pressure gradient tightens with an approaching cold front. Eventually this moisture, and the forcing along the cold front, will lead to scattered showers and thunderstorms, but these are expected to develop mainly east of I-35, and north of I-94, with better chances across northern and eastern Wisconsin.
However, not expected any rainfall with this trough. Expect these dry conditions to continue into Saturday, along with above normal temps, as highs will climb into the low to mid 90s again Saturday afternoon.
212 PM CDT Fri Oct 4 2024 - Unseasonably warm conditions return tomorrow ahead of a cold front, with most locations warming into the mid 80s for highs.
1219 PM CDT Fri Oct 4 2024 (Today through Saturday Night) A broad elongated coastal trough over the south central Gulf is ex- pected to gradually strengthen and drift E/NE through this weekend. Lows will run from the upper 60s over the northern counties to the lower to mid 70s elsewhere tonight and to- morrow night.
Upper level trough will track across the Northern Rockies and North Plains tonight and Saturday. Tonight will be mild and dry, especially across the breezy locations over the higher terrain and across the eastern plains. Lows to range from the mid 50s in the warmer locations to the lower 30s in the mountain valleys. The lower spots across the plains should only fall into the lower to mid 40s versus the 30s from last night. Main trough axis shifts east of Colorado by early Saturday afternoon with weak cold air advection at 700mb. An upper level ridge remains prevalent over northeastern Colorado.
++ - High Wind Warning issued as strong but dry cold front brings high W-NW winds. WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Fast moving ridge moves through the region today elevating temperatures 10-15 degrees above yesterday's maximum readings. By tonight a strong but dry cold front moves through bringing strong W-NW winds of 30-40 mph with gusts up to 60 mph possible.
The upper trough to our west will eventually allow this to occur at least over our area where the whole area should get some rainfall today but may take several hours to get to the NW reaches.
These will continue to march westward through the rest of the afternoon and evening, with the highest rain chances at the coast late in the day. Solutions continue to vary quite a bit regarding this initial disturbance, with models now starting to trend more toward some sort of tropical system forming rather than just a weak area of low pressure.
The 4-Corners ridge which extends into the region will be flattened a bit today as a trough passes through, mainly over the Pacific Northwest. West to southwest winds are increasing with this trough, mainly over mountain ridges. This is leading to elevated fire weather conditions this afternoon and evening, especially for the higher Sierra and into the Burney Basin. The ridge will quickly rebound, with highs highs 15-20 degrees above normal over the weekend.
Over night lows will fall into the middle 50s in the east to the lower 60s in the west. Record warmth is possible again Saturday, especially at Joplin (see climate section below for records), with highs ranging from the mid 80s east to the low 90s west of Highway 65.
- Strong cold front Tonight. Ahead of the cold front moving through tonight, stronger southwest winds aloft mixing down, along with tightening of the surface pressure gradient, is driving strong winds near Livingston and the western foothills. As the cold front passes through overnight, winds will become more westerly to northwesterly, which is unfavorable for gusts over 58 mph in the Livingston/Nye area, but is expected to increase winds across the rest of the region. Fire Weather Concerns: In addition to the strong winds and incoming cold front, Relative Humidities are expected to be in the teens and 20s.
Expect mostly sunny conditions today, with highs in the low to mid 90s. /20/ (Friday through Saturday) The current streak of above average temperatures will continue on through this short-term period as upper-level ridging maintains a presence across much of the SW and SCntrl CONUS. The ridge should win out farther to the north across Cntrl LA and into the rest of our region so have maintained a dry forecast areawide today. High temperatures will range through the lower 90s across the majority of the region, but a few locations may even reach the middle 90s.
(This evening through Saturday night) H500 high pressure with broad ridging remains in place over much of the central CONUS this afternoon. The somewhat cooler air mass remains over the region for today which is leading to highs a bit cooler than the past few days. For tomorrow, low pressure develops over southeastern CO which tightens the surface pressure gradient over the Panhandles and will lead to breezy southwest winds during the daytime hours. The warmer low level temperatures along with the downsloping winds will increase highs to near or just above record levels tomorrow.
A trailing trough axis and stalled coastal boundary are providing a source of lift in the presence of low level moisture for the Pine Belt. /SAS/ Today and Tonight: Looking aloft, the trailing southern end of an upper-level trough axis lies over the Gulf Coast region. A jet streak associated with this trough is centered over Tennessee this morning, and the its right entrance region extends southwest toward the central Gulf Coast.
Today, weak high pressure at the surface is keeping the air mass relatively dry and allowing for a significant warm-up by the afternoon. Aloft, an upper trough will swing through the mid state today and may help kick off a light shower or two over the Cumberland Plateau.
(This evening through Saturday Night) Scattered showers along the coast and offshore, in association with a coastal trof, will remain possible overnight and into the weekend. With the trof and moisture axis generally transitioning further to the southwest and south with time, anticipate that chances of rain will also follow as time progresses.
110 PM EDT Fri Oct 4 2024 Weak high pressure will extend into the region from the northeast today. A cold front will move east across the area late Saturday.
1152 AM EDT Fri Oct 4 2024 Slightly above normal temperatures and mainly dry weather are expected to continue through the weekend as high pressure dominates the weather pattern across the Carolinas.
This is keeping the somewhat cooler air mass in place over the region, bringing temperatures down a few degrees when compared to the last couple of days. Given winds have remained out of the north for a bit longer than previously expected, highs for today have trended a few degrees cooler than the previous forecast. (Today through Saturday night) A very weak front has pushed through AMA this morning and this will lead to slightly cooler highs today across most of the area.
311 PM EDT Fri Oct 4 2024 Dry conditions will continue through Saturday as high pressure pushes across the Great Lakes.
1245 PM CDT Fri Oct 4 2024 (Today through Saturday) An upper level low, noted on GOES 16 water vapor imagery, has settled in over northern Mexico early this morning. Otherwise, the rest of us will likely stay dry and continue with the warmer than normal pattern we've been stuck in for the better part of the past month. We will most certainly take the increased cloud cover and perhaps slightly cooler temperatures, but most of us will miss out on rain.
This will help break down the trough and drive another cold front southward into the area on Saturday night.
A pronounced low pressure system and surface lee trough will progress through the area over the weekend. After this, another ridge sets up over the central US, leading to a dry forecast period.
Temperatures are slightly cooler in the east/southeast where there's a higher coverage of cloud cover and rain.
The subtropical ridge continues to be anchored over the Desert SW, centered over the AZ/NM state line. A weak cold front has pushed through for today. The "cooler" air will settle in for tomorrow lowering highs a few degrees.
Early afternoon temperatures have risen into the low to mid 80s, with Muscle Shoals being the warmest at 87 degrees. Otherwise, expect lows to remain on the warm side in the low to mid 60s.
- Warmer than average temperatures tonight and tomorrow. Highs in central Georgia will depend on cloud cover going from the low to mid 80s and bit closer to seasonable temperatures.
(This evening through Saturday) Expect dry and slightly cooler conditions through Saturday due to a weak cold front moving through the area.
1251 PM EDT Fri Oct 4 2024 Dry, quiet weather will continue under high pressure.
This is where the highest QPF values will reside through the short term period. The clouds and rain are helping keep temperatures on the low side with most of the region only warming into the upper 70s or lower 80s. The warmer temps will likely be inland with the lower rain chances. This should help suppress the rainfall just a bit with the best chances being right along the coast or offshore during the day Saturday as the upper trough (TUTT) remains over the region.
High pressure builds in the low levels Saturday over the midsouth and will promote easterly flow, leading to increasingly warm and dry conditions.
353 PM EDT Fri Oct 4 2024 Broad high pressure will remain across the region tonight.
We end our work week with highs still warmer than normal for this time of year, in the 80s and 90s. Since we remain under large-scale ridging, Saturday sees more blue skies and sunshine.
This is likely a response to mid- and upper-level ridging dominating over the Florida Keys, which continues to cause any developing shower or thunderstorm to quickly collapse. A weak frontal boundary remains draped across the northern Gulf, with a broad area of low pressure spiraling in the western Gulf of Mexico.
- Near record heat for much the lower elevations. an upper trough is forecast to pass well to the north late tonight into Saturday, with our current upper ridge forced south across the Desert Southwest. No precipitation is forecast with this trough passage. Gusty winds associated with the trough base will spread across the Pikes Peak Region, south across Fremont and Pueblo Counties. Highs will top out in the 80s to lower 90s across the lower elevations, with upper 70s over the San Luis Valley.
After this morning's weak cold front, winds will swing back around to the south on Saturday in response to a short wave trough moving across the Rockies into the Plains. Surface pressure troughing will develop in eastern New Mexico as a result of this upper trough.
226 PM EDT Fri Oct 4 2024 Dry, quiet weather will continue under high pressure.
113 PM CDT Fri Oct 4 2024 (Today through Saturday afternoon) WV imagery this morning shows an upper trough moving through the MS Valley, trailing a weak cold front moving through the Panhandle, w/fropa at KMAF ~ 11Z or so. Saturday, thicknesses come up a bit as an inconsequential inverted trough moves south. Highs will be very similar to today's, if not maybe a degree warmer.
With the increased cloud cover and rainfall, temperatures will be a bit cooler Saturday with highs in the mid 80s to mid 90s. Lows will remain in the low to mid 70s.
Lows tonight will be in the low to mid 60s inland to low 70s along the coast. Highs on Saturday will be warmer northwest of I-65 where clouds will be thinner, in the mid 80s.
240 PM EDT Fri Oct 4 2024 A weak cold front passing today could initiate a few showers and isolated thunderstorms over the mountains and foothills. Drier and still warm conditions return over the weekend as high pressure builds back into the region.
The progressive trough will continue to slide eastward across the northwest into the Northern Plains tonight and tomorrow.
647 PM CDT Fri Oct 4 2024 - Unseasonably warm conditions return tomorrow ahead of a cold front, with most locations warming into the mid 80s for highs.
Will continue to monitor as the low level jet kicks it tonight. A pronounced low pressure system and surface lee trough will progress through the area over the weekend. After this, another ridge sets up over the central US, leading to a dry forecast period.
At the surface, a weak frontal boundary is also centered over the area with high pressure to our north. Ultimately, this activity is expected to diminish quickly through the evening hours with clearing skies anticipated overnight as high pressure expands southward. Saturday On Saturday, aforementioned high pressure will be centered over the eastern Great Lakes with northeasterly winds and dry conditions promoted by the subsidence.
Strong winds developed earlier this afternoon in response to upper level low pressure moving through the Pacific Northwest states and the northern Rockies. For Saturday and Saturday night, upper level ridging will build across the southwestern United States.
A dry cold front will continue its eastward trek across SW Idaho this evening. Cooler temperatures and light winds follow the front on Saturday, along with dry conditions as an upper ridge builds into the region.
1043 PM EDT Fri Oct 4 2024 A few light showers or sprinkles are possible with a cold front which will move across the region through this evening.
Overnight, upper level ridging will continue to keep shower coverage limited across the Keys.
934 PM EDT Fri Oct 4 2024 Dry conditions will continue through Saturday as high pressure pushes across the Great Lakes.
731 PM EDT Fri Oct 4 2024 Dry conditions will continue through Saturday as high pressure pushes across the Great Lakes.
610 PM EDT Fri Oct 4 2024 A weak cold front passing today could initiate a few showers and isolated thunderstorms over the mountains and foothills. Drier and still warm conditions return over the weekend as high pressure builds back into the region.
612 PM CDT Fri Oct 4 2024 (Tonight through Saturday night) An upper level low is located over northern Mexico this afternoon expected to remain in this general vicinity through tomorrow.
931 PM EDT Fri Oct 4 2024 Dry conditions will continue through Saturday as high pressure pushes across the Great Lakes.
Dry weather and above normal temperatures will continue overnight with lows Saturday morning in the low to mid 60s.
High pressure continues to weaken as an upper-level trough approaches the area. Gustier westerly winds have been observed in gap and valley terrain along with exposed west facing ridges at higher altitudes. Temperatures rebound again this weekend as the trough moves out.
657 PM EDT Fri Oct 4 2024 Dry, quiet weather will continue under high pressure.
742 PM EDT Fri Oct 4 2024 A weak cold front passing today could initiate a few showers and isolated thunderstorms over the mountains and foothills. Drier and still warm conditions return over the weekend as high pressure builds back into the region.
Areas south will have the highest chances during the late afternoon hours.
654 PM CDT Fri Oct 4 2024 (This evening through Saturday Night) Scattered showers along the coast and offshore, in association with a coastal trof, will remain possible overnight and into the weekend. With the trof and moisture axis generally transitioning further to the southwest and south with time, anticipate that chances of rain will also follow as time progresses.
Otherwise, another fairly mild night for early October, as lows will only drop to the low to mid 60s.
(Today through Sunday afternoon) WV imagery this morning still shows the upper ridge dominating the southern CONUS, w/an inverted trough that covered Texas yesterday now fading south into oblivion. Sunday, the ridge begins building in from the west, adding a couple of degrees onto this afternoon's highs.
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Cold front has blasted through tonight at an impressive magnitude. Although the cooler temperatures will help recover humidity values a little, minimum humidity values will range from 25-35% and with the elevated winds remaining area wide, decided to go ahead and issue a Red Flag Warning for the whole area with the exception of the Little Rockies.
(Today and tonight) Upper level ridging will result in above normal temperatures and dry conditions across West Central Texas.
A weak cold front will move into northern Oklahoma late tonight, shifting the winds to northerly.
1240 AM EDT Sat Oct 5 2024 A weak cold front passing today could initiate a few showers and isolated thunderstorms over the mountains and foothills. Drier and still warm conditions return over the weekend as high pressure builds back into the region.
Brief cooldown yesterday across the northwestern third of the forecast area will be a thing of the past with high temperatures pushing to the upper 80s to near 90 degrees there while elsewhere highs should be near, if not a couple degrees cooler, as compressional warming vicinity of yesterday's weak frontal boundary will be missing today.
Highs will top out in the lower to middle 90s both today and Sunday with little relief in sight as move into the start of the upcoming week.
Over night lows will fall into the middle 50s in the east to the lower 60s in the west. Record warmth is possible again Saturday, especially at Joplin (see climate section below for records), with highs ranging from the mid 80s east to the low 90s west of Highway 65. A cold front will move through the region Sunday and bring a slightly cooler airmass into the region though temperatures will still be 5-10 degrees above average. Temperatures will be cooler but still above normal with highs in the 70s to mid 80s.
Temperatures were generally in the mid-upper 50s with a few spots still in the lower 60s. With partly to mostly sunny skies, afternoon temps will warm into the upper 70s to the lower 80s east of I-65. Dry weather is expected for tonight with lots dipping back into the lower-mid 50s out across our far east. Expect a dry day for just about all of the region, but a cold front will be sliding southeast through the Ohio Valley. The cold front will quickly pass through the region overnight, which will help sfc temps cool to the upper 40s and low 50s under NW flow.
(Today through Sunday night) Model agreement continues to see the upper-level high build in ahead of the expected cold frontal passage later today. Otherwise, concerns for today and tomorrow will be mostly focused on the arriving cold front.
Gusty southerly winds (20-30 mph) will develop this afternoon as a warm front lifts across the region. The cold front will sweep across Illinois overnight as the upper trough digs into the Great Lakes region.
251 AM MDT Sat Oct 5 2024 Today due to the cold front that moved through temperatures will be at about seasonal averages with breezy conditions. An upper-level ridge moves over North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana on Sunday. As a result the High Wind Warnings for the area have been cancelled. As a result of the cold front that passed through yesterday evening through early this morning and an associated upper-level trough temperatures will be at about seasonal averages today across North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana. On Sunday an upper-level ridge moves over North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana.
1109 PM EDT Fri Oct 4 2024 A weak cold front passing today could initiate a few showers and isolated thunderstorms over the mountains and foothills. Drier and still warm conditions return over the weekend as high pressure builds back into the region.
High pressure builds in the low levels Saturday over the midsouth and will promote easterly flow, leading to increasingly warm and dry conditions. In general, strong ridging that continues to reinforce itself over the area will suppress any measurable chance for precipitation and considerable cloud coverage.
Quasi-zonal flow resides across the Central Plains this afternoon with northeasterly surface winds in place behind this morning's cold front. As a result, a Red Flag Warning has been issued for portions of north central Kansas where the lowest relative humidity values are forecast. The cold front moves through the area Saturday evening, bringing in even drier, but also cooler, air for Sunday. In addition, a cold front will sweep across the area during the late afternoon and evening, switching winds to the north. As a result, a Red Flag Warning has been issued for portions of north central Kansas where the lowest relative humidity values are forecast.
1042 PM CDT Fri Oct 4 2024 (This evening through Saturday Night) Scattered showers along the coast and offshore, in association with a coastal trof, will remain possible overnight and into the weekend. With the trof and moisture axis generally transitioning further to the southwest and south with time, anticipate that chances of rain will also follow as time progresses.
136 AM CDT Sat Oct 5 2024 A more humid air mass has spread W across the region this evening, indicative of the higher theta-e air especially across Deep E TX into much of NCntrl and NE LA/SE AR. The evening satellite imagery still continues to depict a narrow line of cu along the leading edge of this higher theta-e air as it spreads farther W.
High pressure builds this weekend bringing slightly warmer temperatures.