Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
(This evening through Friday) Today will be the last warm day for a while, as the first of two cold fronts approaches tonight. As the low progresses east, a cold front will move through the area, exiting to our southeast by tomorrow morning. As the front moves through and the low positions itself to our northeast, the pressure gradient will tighten over our area. Temperatures behind the front will be much cooler. Temperatures will be near freezing during this time period, so a wintery mix is possible. Sunny skies should allow temperatures to warm into the low 50s for Friday afternoon.
This whole setup will lead to warmer low and high temperatures with increasing shower and storm chances late Friday and Friday night as the front moves through the local area.
815 PM EST Thu Jan 11 2024 Scattered showers continue to spread across the region as moisture increases from south to north with a northward advancing warm front and associated isentropic ascent. As low level flow veers to the south overnight and brings a quick increase in dewpoints, some recent hi-res guidance does support the possibility of the development of sea fog near the coast Friday morning as the warmer moist air advects across the cooler Gulf waters. This whole setup will lead to warmer low and high temperatures with increasing shower and storm chances late Friday and Friday night as the front moves through the local area.
Our winter storm is pushing quickly into New Mexico this afternoon, with the cold front now moving through Cochise county.
(This evening through Friday) A strong cold front has entered the Oklahoma panhandle at the time of this writing. There is a chance of light snow and wintry mix tonight into early Friday morning following the passage of the cold front.
104 PM PST Thu Jan 11 2024 A cold front has swept through southern California and produced windy conditions and scattered showers with mountain snowfall.
(Today and tonight) Significant cold front has cleared the area tonight with temperatures by morning some 45 to 50 degrees colder than yesterday afternoon.
910 PM PST Thu Jan 11 2024 High pressure over California will bring cool days and cold nights through Saturday.
1051 PM CST Thu Jan 11 2024 (This evening through Friday) A strong cold front has entered the Oklahoma panhandle at the time of this writing. There is a chance of light snow and wintry mix tonight into early Friday morning following the passage of the cold front.
The cold front will stall out over southern Florida during the weekend, with cooler and drier air filling in behind the front.
1045 PM CST Thu Jan 11 2024 (This evening through Friday) Today will be the last warm day for a while, as the first of two cold fronts approaches tonight. As the low progresses east, a cold front will move through the area, exiting to our southeast by tomorrow morning. As the front moves through and the low positions itself to our northeast, the pressure gradient will tighten over our area. Temperatures behind the front will be much cooler. Temperatures will be near freezing during this time period, so a wintery mix is possible. Sunny skies should allow temperatures to warm into the low 50s for Friday afternoon.
Overnight, a frontal boundary in the Straits of Florida will slowly ride northward through the island communities as a warm front. Temperatures have likely bottomed out for the night, with a slow rise in temperatures back into the lower to mid 70s expected by sunrise.
The warm front in the Straits of Florida has been very slow to gain latitude this morning, although KBYX loops suggest the boundary is nearing the island chain. By daybreak, the warm front and scattered showers should be north of the island chain. Water vapor imagery highlights a deep mean layer ridge centered over the Caribbean, southeast of the nearly persistent cyclonic gyre over the CONUS. All of the FL RAOBs sampled rising 500 mb heights at 00Z last evening, emphasizing the ridge's dominance, and resistance to polar intrusions.
528 AM CST Fri Jan 12 2024 (Today and tonight) Significant cold front has cleared the area tonight with temperatures by morning some 45 to 50 degrees colder than yesterday afternoon.
Some Valley locations at 3 am were already around freezing, 32 at Modesto, Chico and Red Bluff. This will be a warmer, wetter storm than the previous one, with a strong tropical moisture tap and raising snow levels.
It will not be quite as cold Saturday morning, but lows will still bottom out around the freezing mark across the Tucson metro.
533 AM CST Fri Jan 12 2024 (Today and tonight) The combination of strong pressure gradient on the backside of a low pressure system in southeast Oklahoma and a strong mid level jet has resulted in another round of intense winds with a few gusts over 50 mph this morning. Expect colder temperatures with highs in the low to mid 50s and lows tonight the upper 20s to mid 30s.
521 AM CST Fri Jan 12 2024 (Today and tonight) Water vapor imagery currently shows the upper level low spiraling eastward out of the region, taking elevated instability and precipitation chances with it. The associated cold front with this system has made its way through the forecast area early this morning, allowing a cooler air mass and breezy conditions to follow in its wake. These cooler temperatures in the upper teens to low 20s and breezy northerly winds around 15 to 30 mph will lead to Wind Chill values in the single digits with below-zero wind chill values possible across the far southwestern Texas Panhandle this morning. These elevated winds and cooler temperatures in the 40s to lower 50s this afternoon will make it feel cooler.
(Today and tonight) Water vapor imagery currently shows the upper level low spiraling eastward out of the region, taking elevated instability and precipitation chances with it. The associated cold front with this system has made its way through the forecast area early this morning, allowing a cooler air mass and breezy conditions to follow in its wake. These cooler temperatures in the upper teens to low 20s and breezy northerly winds around 15 to 30 mph will lead to Wind Chill values in the single digits with below-zero wind chill values possible across the far southwestern Texas Panhandle this morning. These elevated winds and cooler temperatures in the 40s to lower 50s this afternoon will make it feel cooler.
(Today and tonight) The combination of strong pressure gradient on the backside of a low pressure system in southeast Oklahoma and a strong mid level jet has resulted in another round of intense winds with a few gusts over 50 mph this morning. Expect colder temperatures with highs in the low to mid 50s and lows tonight the upper 20s to mid 30s.
235 AM MST Fri Jan 12 2024 A cold and dry air mass has settled into the region and this is resulting in fairly widespread freezing temperatures across Arizona this morning.
Early morning GOES imagery/observations showed the mid-level trough across the southern plains with snow spreading north across Iowa into southern Minnesota. The highest totals are favored across far northeast Iowa through southwest/central Wisconsin where WPC superensemble probabilities for a foot or more of snow reach 40 to 70%. The higher rates with this snow favors northeast IA through southwest and central WI. Snow ratios will likely be somewhat higher west of the MS River to start the event with cooler thermal profiles in place relative to farther east, compensating to some extent for the lower precipitation amounts expected to the west.
236 AM MST Fri Jan 12 2024 MORNING DISCUSSION: Synoptic Setup: Forecast begins with the Polar Vortex over southern Alberta and its Arctic trough dropping through Montana and into the US central Plains. A large ridge has developed farther west off the coast of the PAC NW and BC running north through Alaska and has warm sub-synoptic Pacific waves embedded in it.
544 PM CST Wed Nov 27 2024 Updated at 538 PM CST Wed Nov 27 2024 - A strong cold front will bring a dramatic cool-down to the entire region this afternoon and evening.
Water vapor imagery showing large dry air aloft over the region becoming compressed as upper longwave trough from the Midwest into the Southern Plains pushes a moisture plume through the Gulf heading towards the FL Peninsula this evening and for tomorrow. At the surface, very weak high pressure remains anchored over the local area while a complex and developing storm system moves from Mid-Mississippi River valley this evening into and over the Eastern U. A near-zonal flow is in place aloft this afternoon but heights will start to lower starting tomorrow night as troughing moves over a large part of the country.
622 PM CST Wed Nov 27 2024 (This evening through Thursday Night) The cold front is still expected to begin working into our northern zones around 6PM tonight, quickly moving through the region into the morning hours. Behind the front, highs tomorrow will range in the low to upper-50s, with lows tomorrow night dropping into the low to upper-30s area-wide.
205 PM PST Wed Nov 27 2024 * High pressure returns for the Thanksgiving holiday bringing drier and cooler conditions.
In addition to sub-freezing temperatures for the northern ~one-half of the area, a steady north breeze will contribute to wind chills as low as the ~20-25 degrees.
1018 PM CST Wed Nov 27 2024 A cold front will continue to push across the region through the late evening and overnight period. /20/ (This evening through Thursday Night) The cold front is still expected to begin working into our northern zones around 6PM tonight, quickly moving through the region into the morning hours. Behind the front, highs tomorrow will range in the low to upper-50s, with lows tomorrow night dropping into the low to upper-30s area-wide.
- A stronger cold front arrives late today, bringing much cooler conditions for Thanksgiving Day and Friday. (This evening through Thursday) The current surface analysis indicates a strong cold front from Lubbock to Wichita Falls. The cold front will move rapidly south into the northern Big Country by late this afternoon and exit the area south of the I-10 corridor by midnight or a few hours before then.
Temperatures have fallen just a couple of degrees so far but are still hovering above freezing. I did adjust hourly temperatures and dew points (warmer) to reflect the latest trends which also delays the chance of snow to mix in. A few snow showers possible northwest Thu morning before giving way to lake banding Thu night into Fri morning as low level lake thermal trough intensifies. Remainder of the period will be quite cold and dry beneath dominant upper low taking shape near James Bay.
A weak weather system on Friday will bring cooler air and light precipitation to portions of the region.
At the same time, high clouds from the low passing through Indiana will continue to float over the top. - Light Lake Effect Snow Thanksgiving Tonight, Jackson County may get clipped by some light rain extending from the low pressure system currently over southeast Oklahoma that will move northeast into Virgina by Thursday morning. Gradual snow accumulations are expected through Friday night with the highest amounts along the lakeshore and mainly southwest of Grand Rapids and north of US 10.
The trough and the associated cold front have just about cleared our southern border this afternoon, with colder and drier air pushing in rapidly in its wake. The steepening lapse rates thanks to the infiltrating cold air have led to the development of some convective snow showers over the higher terrain, with northwest facing slopes most favored. Less than an inch of additional snow is expected, mainly across the higher elevations of the Park Range.
Chances lessen along and south of the Buffalo ridge. Low confidence with any specifics given potential deviations on the track of the lows. The clouds will begin to clear on Friday as high pressure moves in, but given the low sun angle and limited daylight hours this time of year, even full sun won't heat things up. This is the time of year where if you want warmer temperatures, you want cloud cover to act as a blanket. A large scale upper-level trough centered over the eastern CONUS has locked in Arctic high pressure and northwest flow aloft in the Upper Midwest for the foreseeable future.
(Tonight through Friday) Key Messages: - Mostly dry cold frontal passage early this morning, resulting in seasonable temperatures for Thanksgiving. As of 2 AM the cold front was just entering northern portions of our area and this boundary is expected to have more or less pushed through the entire area by sunrise.
1033 PM CST Wed Nov 27 2024 Wx map shows the strong cold front moving across the ArkLaTex just entering Shreveport. 08/DML (Tonight through Friday night) Strong southwest winds have been ongoing all day which has brought ashore a warm front. A great change will be felt tomorrow when a robust cold front washes through the region. High temps Thanksgiving Day will be in the low to mid 60s, with Friday seeing highs in the mid to upper 50s.
1046 PM CST Wed Nov 27 2024 (Tonight through Thursday night) Warm and humid conditions this afternoon and tonight will give way to a big change tomorrow behind an approaching cold front. Some of the coldest air so far this fall comes in tomorrow night with lows in the 40s for inland areas in the lower 50s along the coast.
(Today through Friday) The mid to upper level flow over Texas has become slightly cyclonic this morning with a very broad trough over the entire country. This trough has brought a cold front through our CWA which now stretches across our southern counties from Lavaca to Atascosa to Maverick. A cooler, drier airmass behind the front is just entering our northern counties. The breezy, gusty northerly winds will continue today bringing cooler, drier air. High temperatures today will be about 15 degrees cooler than yesterday. Cold air advection will continue tonight and low temperatures will be around ten degrees cooler than this morning's lows.
1040 PM CST Wed Nov 27 2024 Updated at 1028 PM CST Wed Nov 27 2024 - A strong cold front will bring a dramatic cool-down to the entire region this afternoon and evening.
Southwesterly winds prevail today ahead of approaching cold front towards the end of the period.
232 AM CST Thu Nov 28 2024 - Cool today, with highs in the lower to middle 40s throughout the area. At the surface, high pressure has built in over the High Plains as light northerly flow dominates the scene over Kansas. These will keep wind chills early this morning in the upper teens and low 20s before diurnal heating results in daytime highs in the lower and middle 40s this afternoon.
1044 PM CST Wed Nov 27 2024 A cold front will continue to push across the region through the late evening and overnight period. /20/ (This evening through Thursday Night) The cold front is still expected to begin working into our northern zones around 6PM tonight, quickly moving through the region into the morning hours. Behind the front, highs tomorrow will range in the low to upper-50s, with lows tomorrow night dropping into the low to upper-30s area-wide.
950 PM CST Wed Nov 27 2024 (Tonight through Thursday night) Breezy SW winds should relax by 00Z with a wind shift from the next cold front reaching our northernmost counties of the Hill Country as early at 8 PM. This will likely keep all areas near the metro cities comfortably above freezing.
High pressure will build across the region today, bringing warmer temperatures, light winds, and mostly dry conditions for the foreseeable future. An area of high pressure will begin to build across the Southwest through the next several days. This ridge will stick around through the weekend and into the first part of next, before a rex block pattern sets up. Even with the pending rex block pattern, moisture seems little to none from the forecast closed low off the southern coast of California.
1117 PM CST Wed Nov 27 2024 The cold front has passed through Memphis and Tunica and should move through Jackson, TN in the next hour or so.
(Today) A cold front is moving through the area early this morning, and light to moderate rainfall can be seen ahead of this front in northeast AL.
1150 PM CST Wed Nov 27 2024 (This evening through Friday) A cold front was beginning to push into NW Arkansas this afternoon, and will rapidly sweep thru the state tonight.
For Thanksgiving day, we see an upper low north of the Great Lakes ushering a trough and front through the midwest, with the frontal passage across our area occurring late tonight through mid-day tomorrow.
(Today through Friday) In the very early morning hours this Thanksgiving, showers associated with a low pressure system and cold front were moving across Middle Tennessee. By daybreak, the low center will be over West Virginia, and the trailing cold front will have moved completely through the Mid State. Cold and dry high pressure will be pushing into the area tonight through Friday.
A longwave ridge slowly move eastward into the western U.
As for tomorrow night into Friday morning, Tule fog development may become more widespread over the Central Valley, as upper- level high pressure ridging will be in control by this point.
Ridging will remain to our north. This along with relatively cooler bay and gulf waters will keep winds light and loosely northeasterly. Weak surface ridging reaching from the Atlantic, across Florida, and on into the Gulf of Mexico will maintain light northeast to east breezes across Keys waters through the overnight period.
These include the Lower Treasure Valley and northern areas of Harney County. Stratus is expected to either persist or redevelop in the Lower Treasure Valley, northern Harney County, Long Valley, and parts of the Western Magic Valley. As a result, temperatures tonight in these areas are likely to remain slightly warmer. While widespread dense fog is not anticipated, patchy fog remains possible and could impact travel on key routes, including Idaho State Highway 55 through Long Valley, US Highway 20 across Harney and Malheur Counties, and I-84 in portions of the Lower Treasure and Western Magic Valleys. Looking ahead, an upper-level ridge will gradually shift inland on Thursday, weakening upper-level flow and strengthening a surface inversion into the weekend.
Some clouds and flurries lingered on the higher mountain ridges, and may hold in some spots overnight with weak orographics and trapped moisture. Same in the high country with IR satellite showing very cold skin temperatures in South Park and portions of North Park, but somewhat warmer in middle Park with a few clouds around. Radars and satellite pictures are showing most of the snow has ended with just a few showers left, mainly, over the high mountains. We ended all the highlights. We need to watch lows in the high mountain parks as they now are snow covered. A deep trough will stall over the eastern U. , with a ridge slowly building to our west.
(This afternoon through Thursday night) A cold front currently situated near Lubbock is on the way for tonight and looks to pass through the Permian Basin over the next several hours. At the same time, strong winds in the Guadalupe and Delaware mountains will be decreasing and the High Wind Warning currently in place remains set to expire tonight. Lows for areas north of I-20 settle into the low 40s to 30s and locations south of I-20 end up in the low to mid 40s. The aforementioned cold front continues to push south and begins to weaken south of the Davis Mountains. Areas along the Rio Grande stay a tad warmer in the 60s with the rest of West Texas and southeast New Mexico mainly in the 50s.
1138 PM CST Wed Nov 27 2024 Wx map shows the strong cold front moving across the ArkLaTex just entering Shreveport. 08/DML (Tonight through Friday night) Strong southwest winds have been ongoing all day which has brought ashore a warm front. A great change will be felt tomorrow when a robust cold front washes through the region. High temps Thanksgiving Day will be in the low to mid 60s, with Friday seeing highs in the mid to upper 50s.
- Temperatures will be much cooler today into Friday.
(Rest of today and tonight) Cold front continues to move across the fa this afternoon with the front currently through all but the SE quarter of the fa. The light winds along with clear skies will likely allow radiational cooling to occur so another cold night is expected Thursday night into Friday morning with lows below freezing across the entire fa. After the cold start to the day Friday, slightly warmer temperatures are expected (highs around 50 to the mid 50s) with southerly winds and sunny skies.
Current temperatures are also around freezing in the aforementioned areas and is expected to continue to drop into the mid-to upper 20s by early Thursday morning. Thus, a Freezing Fog Advisory has been issued for the Yakima Valley, Lower Columbia Basin of Washington, and the Northern Blue Mountain foothills of Washington until 10 AM Thursday. The main concern will be slick roadways and low visibility due to freezing temperatures and low, thick fog. Otherwise, Thanksgiving will be dry and cooler as high temperatures drop 3-7 degrees from today. The northwest flow will dominate the PacNW for the whole forecast period with the oncoming offshore ridge. Current radar and satellite imagery show cloud coverage decreasing, though with low stratus lingering around the Lower Columbia Basin area.
For any Turkey Trotters out there, temperatures will be chilly starting out in the low 20s with wind chills in the lower teens, so be sure to bundle up. Overcast skies will slowly transition to partly sunny as high pressure begins to extend into the Upper Midwest. Forecast highs will be in the low teens to upper single digits, especially across western Minnesota.
Latest surface analysis shows the cold front moving across middle Tennessee and southeast Kentucky. Temperature profile will become cold enough for wintry precipitation across the highest elevations late today and this evening. A secondary cold front with little to no moisture will move into the region bringing much colder airmass for Friday and this weekend.
(Today through Friday) Models and sfc analyses depict broad high pressure centered over the Western Atlantic and dominating the synoptic weather pattern across the region. SoFlo remains on the western edge of the high with mid-upper ridging keeping a relatively stable air mass in place today. The weak winds will allow for afternoon temperatures to climb back into the lower or mid 80s each day.
Southwesterly winds prevail today ahead of approaching cold front towards the end of the period. High pressure ridging across south Florida and into the Gulf of Mexico will keep rain-free conditions and light southwest winds around 5-10 knots over the waters with patchy fog this morning and Friday morning. A cold front moves through the eastern gulf waters on Friday, bringing a chance for showers.
Model guidance usually does not handle these low inversions well, but as for now they show stratus dissipating late morning then transitioning to pockets of shallow cumulus over the higher terrain later today.
358 AM CST Thu Nov 28 2024 Today and Tonight: Latest surface analysis had a cold front from Meridian back to the southwest across Natchez. Local radars showed a narrow broken line of storms along the cold front. The cold front will continue to progress to the southeast and clear our southeast most zones shortly after sunrise. Temperatures over our southeast were still running in the lower 70s. This will continue to bring in a much drier and cooler airmass to our region. Temperatures tonight across our northern zones will bottom out near or just below freezing and winds will be light enough to allow for frost development.
- Much cooler weather is expected for Thanksgiving Day.