Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
229 PM EDT Fri Aug 9 2024 Remaining showers will end by sunset as drier air follows a cold front. KEY MESSAGES: - Drier and relatively cooler weather this weekend. __________________________________________________________ As upper level low pressure slowly spins from Ontario into Quebec this weekend, the associated upper trough will settle across the northeast CONUS. At the surface, broad ridging will ride up the Ohio Valley as a high center drops toward the Ohio/Mississippi River confluence.
(Now Thru Saturday) A cold front is slowly sinking south across the region today, leading to a well-below average day temp wise with lower humidity. The high based activity to our west has faded as it typically does during this time of the day so the plan is to start the night with no PoPs.
236 PM EDT Fri Aug 9 2024 (This afternoon through Saturday) -High pressure heat on tap this weekend.
PW's are still on the lower end for us today which has resulted in just some isolated showers and storms across the area this afternoon and evening.
(Tonight) Strong dome of high pressure out of the Plains states continues to gradually build SE into much of the region, following the passage of a weak frontal boundary this morning. Slightly cooler/drier air is likewise filtering into the central TN Valley out of the north, with temps thus far struggling to surpass the 90F mark.
An upper level short wave trough moving through Colorado now will turn more southeast and it is expected to move across the Oklahoma Panhandle or southwest Kansas overnight. A fly in the ointment would be how strong the upper level high is to our south. Storms will have a tough time making it too much farther south than our southern CWA border given the subsidence under the high. On Saturday, another round of showers and thunderstorms are expected to move this way from the Rockies in association with another short wave trough in the zonal to northwest flow aloft.
Aloft low pressure is spinning north of the Great Lakes, this low and its associated trof continue to move east this weekend with ridging over the western CONUS. Sfc ridging is in place through the weekend behind a dry cold front that has brought more pleasant weather to the area.
1232 PM CDT Fri Aug 9 2024 (Today through Saturday) Current synoptic conditions see the former Debby continuing her northward trek and absorption into the upper level trough moving eastward from the midwest into the Ohio Valley. The high over the southwest will build to the east. Locally, the high pressure will last through the end of the period and hold the high temperatures and lack of precipitation in place.
120 PM EDT Fri Aug 9 2024 - Turning cooler and windy with increasing lake-enhanced shower chances. - Scattered showers (perhaps an isolated storm), cooler temperatures, and breezy winds this weekend. Mid level low/deep troughing will essentially pivot across central Ontario and northern Lake Superior into tonight, sending a rather respectable shot of mid-summer chill across the Northwoods into the start of this weekend. However, cloud depths do look deep enough (especially on Lake Superior) that when combined with that passing trough tonight. Lows tonight mostly in the lower and middle 50s. Pattern Synopsis and Forecast: Deep, fall-looking, upper low with various internal spokes of energy will reside in the vicinity and just to the north of northern Michigan.
- Breezy Saturday with gusts up to 20-25 mph and daytime highs in the low to mid 70s. Issued 345 PM CDT Fri Aug 9 2024 Tonight through Saturday night: Cloudy weather will continue this afternoon as moisture associated with the area of low pressure to our north continues to stream into southern Wisconsin. Overnight lows will be in the low 50s, mid 50s closer to the lake. Saturday will be similar to today with breezy conditions and diurnal cumulus as the low to our north continues to move eastward and high pressure builds into the region.
Near the surface, a broad area of high pressure extends from the Dakotas southward into the Central Plains.
/19/ (Friday through Saturday) A backdoor cold front has moved across most of the forecast area this morning with the exception of the western fringes of Smith, Cherokee, and Angelina Counties in East Texas. However, daytime high temperatures are still expected to be in the lower to mid 90s today. With a broad upper ridge centered over the Desert Southwest, northwesterly flow aloft prevails. The ridge should elongate and flatten somewhat overnight Friday and into Saturday. As yet another perturbation in the flow moves across the Plains, this may allow for some scattered convection to brush portions of Southeast Oklahoma Saturday afternoon, but the higher rain chances are expected to be much farther north of the area. Combined with the lower dewpoints, heat index values should remain below advisory criteria. The center of an elongated upper-level ridge will gradually migrate eastward.
(This afternoon through Saturday night) The "cold front" has made it to roughly the Pecos River valley with temperatures north of this boundary some 10 to 15 degrees cooler than yesterday. Saturday, look for temperatures to be slightly above normal for this time of year, ranging from the mid 80s at higher elevations to the mid 90s to around 107 across the lowlands.
1227 PM CDT Fri Aug 9 2024 (Today through Saturday) A mid to upper level ridge centered over north and central Texas will continue to remain in place throughout the short term period.
(Tonight through Saturday night) Key Messages: - Heat Advisory in effect this afternoon - Moderate to Major risk of heat related impacts today and tomorrow Mid to upper-level ridging will maintain hot and dry conditions across South Texas. The primary concern is the heat, with highs ranging from the low 90s along the coast to around 105 degrees inland.
6 to 8" of rain has fallen in/near the Harrisburg metro area today, with the highest reports just across the river (West Shore) in Marysville, Enola, Camp Hill areas. Upper low/trough axis does not move east of our longitude for 48+ hrs.
Expect showers and thunderstorms to develop again today, starting across the higher terrain and then becoming isolated to scattered across the region this afternoon. An area of high pressure continues to sit over the Southwestern US. This ridge will gradually shift eastward over the next couple of days (centering over Texas), shifting the greater coverage for storms to be along and west of a Black Canyon City- FLagstaff- Page line.
Main impact will be isolated to scattered thunderstorms this afternoon and evening as well as Saturday afternoon and evening as a stronger upper level trof moves through.
230 PM EDT Fri Aug 9 2024 A cold front trailing from the eastern Great Lakes to the to the Southern Appalachians will push east tonight, then high pressure and drier air will cover the Mid Atlantic region and western Carolinas on Saturday.
(Now through Saturday) Weak westerly to northwesterly flow will continue in the upper levels through Saturday as we remain on the eastern periphery of a broad upper level ridge and an upper trough meanders over the Great Lakes region. Drier air has filtered in behind this feature with surface dew points currently in the lower 70s over parts of southeast Mississippi and southwest Alabama. Temperatures this afternoon have climbed into the lower and middle 90s across the area. Temperatures will still be hot with highs reaching into the lower and middle 90s.
1048 PM EDT Fri Aug 9 2024 - Breezy and cooler on Saturday with westerly wind gusts around 30 mph.
High pressure dominates this evening. Additionally, a western wind component will favor slighter warmer temperatures in the prairie coteau region. Temperatures are warming through the 60s, into the low 70s at a few locations. Between now and Saturday night there will only be a slight shift east in the region for said high pressure, which will open the door for some return flow/mid-level WAA forced nocturnal elevated ACCAS showers/storms down over central or south central South Dakota late Saturday night, although confidence in this scenario yielding storms is rather low (not a real good signal for this) at this time. Otherwise the short term is a dry and continued cooler than normal forecast period.
(Rest of tonight) Light NNW flow aloft will gradually back to WNW and strengthen overnight, as a large upper low over southern Ontario begins to impart more of an influence from the mid-latitude westerlies across our region. At the surface, a cold front (initially extending from the Upper OH Valley southwestward into central AR) will advance southeastward across the forecast area, with dewpoints predicted to range from the m-u 50s (NW) to l-m 60s (SE) by sunrise. Thus, we have indicated lows in the l-m 60s (which will be roughly 3-5 cooler than normal for portions of northwest AL and southern TN).
915 PM EDT Fri Aug 9 2024 Weak high pressure will gradually build into the area this weekend. High pressure is expected to build into the region this weekend. The big story this weekend will be the lower humidity.
608 PM CDT Fri Aug 9 2024 (This afternoon through Saturday night) The "cold front" has made it to roughly the Pecos River valley with temperatures north of this boundary some 10 to 15 degrees cooler than yesterday. Saturday, look for temperatures to be slightly above normal for this time of year, ranging from the mid 80s at higher elevations to the mid 90s to around 107 across the lowlands.
* Very pleasant weekend with cooler temperatures and lower humidity. The 'cool' front brought drier conditions (dew points in the low-mid 60s) and slightly below normal temperatures to the region. High temperatures will be in the low 80s. Conditions will remain dry with very little moisture and high pressure overhead.
High pressure will become established across the central FL Atlc waters, with a weak pressure gradient in place.
This cloud cover will shift east across the area tonight associated with a passing sfc and upper trough. An upper low will meander around southeast Ontario and southwest Quebec during the period, with a broad trough around it over much of the eastern CONUS.
716 PM EDT Fri Aug 9 2024 - Breezy and cooler on Saturday with westerly wind gusts around 30 mph.
Scattered light to briefly moderate rain showers were drifting east across the Susq Valley, Sullivan Cty and Western Poconos as the trailing sfc-850mb weak cold frontal boundary (from Debby) moves through. A secondary cfront will push through the commonwealth through the early nighttime hours and usher in the much drier air at the surface with notably cooler air aloft. Upper low/trough axis does not move east of our longitude for 48+ hrs.
(This afternoon through Saturday) - High pressure heat on tap this weekend.
743 PM CDT Fri Aug 9 2024 (Tonight through Saturday night) Key Messages: - Heat Advisory in effect this afternoon - Moderate to Major risk of heat related impacts today and tomorrow Mid to upper-level ridging will maintain hot and dry conditions across South Texas. The primary concern is the heat, with highs ranging from the low 90s along the coast to around 105 degrees inland.
638 PM CDT Fri Aug 9 2024 (Now Thru Saturday) A cold front is slowly sinking south across the region today, leading to a well-below average day temp wise with lower humidity. The high based activity to our west has faded as it typically does during this time of the day so the plan is to start the night with no PoPs.
621 PM CDT Fri Aug 9 2024 High pressure will move across the Mid-Mississippi Valley over the weekend bringing dry weather and below normal temperatures for the Mid-South.
An area of high pressure remains over the southwest states with a wave of low pressure crossing to the south of Arizona. The high will gradually shift to the east as the wave of low pressure continues to push to the west. Through the weekend, the low starts to drop off to the south as the high makes a slight westward push. This will allow for better storm coverage over the forecast area with initial storm development over the higher terrain by late morning/early afternoon. By midweek, the ridge of high pressure flattens out and flow becomes more zonal. The high looks to reestablish itself over New Mexico late in the week, which may help to keep the monsoon going across the region.
928 PM CDT Fri Aug 9 2024 A stable pattern, characterized by strong upper-level ridging centered over Texas, will maintain dry conditions through tonight.
The first round were confluence bands that set up mostly north of the island chain, though Key West and portions of the Lower Keys did see some rain from this first round. Just prior to reaching the Lower Keys it essentially imploded on itself and dissipated before it could potential do damage. A ridge axis associated with expansive high pressure over the western North Atlantic will remain in the vicinity of South Florida through Saturday, maintaining light to gentle, generally southeast to south breezes.
547 PM CDT Fri Aug 9 2024 (Tonight) Strong dome of high pressure out of the Plains states continues to gradually build SE into much of the region, following the passage of a weak frontal boundary this morning. Slightly cooler/drier air is likewise filtering into the central TN Valley out of the north, with temps thus far struggling to surpass the 90F mark.
814 PM EDT Fri Aug 9 2024 - Dry weather and cooler than normal conditions persist this weekend.
618 PM CDT Fri Aug 9 2024 (This evening through Saturday) Yesterday's cold front and last night's convection has through a wrench into today's forecast. 1 PM temperatures for many areas are 20+ degrees cooler than the were 24 hours ago as the warmest temp so far today is 88 degrees at Aspermont. Even more drastic is temps across the central and northern Texas Panhandle where 1 PM temps average in the low to mid 60s thanks to cloud cover. Convection is expected to be maintained under the trough as it pushes into the Texas Panhandle. Currently Highs in the low to mid 90s are expected.
High pressure will be building in from the west overnight, along with slightly lower dewpoint. Discussion: Broad upper level troughing building across the Great Lakes region has guided a weak frontal boundary through the forecast area.
Lows will drop into the low 60s and even upper 50s in a couple lucky locations in the northwest.
922 PM EDT Fri Aug 9 2024 Weak ridging with SW flow continuing across the area. Weak ridging will continue across the area with SW flow in place through the weekend.
A very weak trough is in the process of moving through the northern parts of the CWA (southwest Washington), but little to no precipitation is expected due to how dry conditions are.
(Today through Sunday Night) Today is National Lazy Day, which works out perfectly because today will be a fantastic day to stay curled up indoors in the AC and out of the heat! Ridging aloft continues to prevail with mid level high pressure continuing to sit overhead. We'll have slightly warmer 850mb temperatures (increasing from 19- 21Â°C on Saturday to 20-22Â°C on Sunday) and slightly drier air. It'll allow for a few spots in the Piney Woods to drop into the low 70s overnight, but the rest of us will be stuck with lows in the upper 70s to low 80s.
1233 AM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024 (Tonight through Saturday night) A mid to upper level ridge over northern and central Texas is expected to remain in place through the short term forecast period. The low-level humidity will cause the heat indices to go up to near Heat Advisory criteria around 110. As for the actual temperatures for the short term forecast, the high temperatures are expected to be in the the upper 90s for most of the region, with the western counties more likely to tip toe into the the triple digits. The low temperatures for tonight and tomorrow night are expected to be in the 70s with a few places getting into the low 80s.
323 AM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024 - Breezy again today with gusts up to around 20 mph, especially closer to Lake Michigan and daytime highs in the low to mid 70s.
Near the surface, a broad area of high pressure extends from the Dakotas southward into the Central Plains. Prevailing southerlies will begin to pull warmer air back into the area Saturday, though temperatures are expected to remain well below seasonal.
1139 PM CDT Fri Aug 9 2024 (This evening through Sunday night) A very dry and stable deep layer ridge axis will continue to remain just west of the area through Sunday night, and this will keep any rain chances at bay as light northerly flow and dry air advection persists.
(Today through Sunday) The Subtropical Ridge remains nearly overhead in the short term.
Warmer compared to today anyway, which is not saying much, but highs in the 70s to perhaps 80 south are expected.
Our southern most zones will bottom out in the lower 70s each night but the remainder of our CWA will see cooler than normal morning lows. Near full insolation Saturday and Sunday will allow temperatures to top out warmer than normal at most locations but our northwest most zones may remain in the 80s which is cooler than normal.
High pressure dominates this evening. Additionally, a western wind component will favor slighter warmer temperatures in the prairie coteau region. Temperatures are warming through the 60s, into the low 70s at a few locations. Between now and Saturday night there will only be a slight shift east in the region for said high pressure, which will open the door for some return flow/mid-level WAA forced nocturnal elevated ACCAS showers/storms down over central or south central South Dakota late Saturday night, although confidence in this scenario yielding storms is rather low (not a real good signal for this) at this time. Otherwise the short term is a dry and continued cooler than normal forecast period. Deterministic and ensemble solutions have this high centered moreso across the Dakotas/MN border region Sunday morning before advancing it slightly farther east and southeast by Sunday night.
(Today through Sunday Night) The Natural State rmns under the influence of high pressure that was centered over the Central Plains. An upper low wl meander north of the Great Lakes, while a flat upper ridge axis stays in place over TX and the southwestern U.
Aloft, there is good agreement that warmer 850mb temperatures in the teens will build northeastwards throughout the day, resulting in a slightly warmer day on Saturday. Highs east of I-29 look to top out in the lower to mid 70s, while along and west of I-29 will largely be in the mid to upper 70s. Highs for Sunday are a bit cooler considering the cloud coverage and chances for rain, but still in the mid 70s to lower 80s. As for temperatures, models continue to show a gradual warming trend as the ridge of high pressure aloft continues off to our south, though highs by the end of the week look to remain in the upper 70s to mid 80s.
The only notable weather hazard tonight into Saturday continues to be the high swim risk for northwestern IN Lake Michigan beaches due to lingering large waves. Pleasant late summer weather will extend through the entire weekend as an upper low/trough dominates across the Great Lakes.
(Today and tonight) The weakening ridge continues to be the main force impacting our weather, but the global models suggest that before it fades away into nothingness, it's going to make one last run at giving us warm weather across the region. Low temperatures this morning continue in the 50s into the low 60s in the valleys and up to the mid 70s across the thermal belts. As for high temperatures, the inland valleys continue to see highs in the mid 80s into the mid 90s, with temperatures up to 100-105 in the warmest spots, while the Bayshore sees temperatures in the 70s into the lower 80s and the Pacific coast remains in the upper 50s to mid 60s.
As the leading edge of the colder air aloft continues to make its way south across Wisconsin, expect lake- enhanced showers to become scattered in coverage across northern Wisconsin later this afternoon as lake surface to 850 mb delta-Ts soar into the low 20s. Temperatures will likewise rebound back into the upper 70s to end the weekend as weak high pressure builds in behind the departing low. Expect breezy conditions to persist through the weekend as the gradient between low pressure to the northeast and building high pressure over the central Plains tightens over Wisconsin.
1006 PM CDT Fri Aug 9 2024 - Breezy Saturday with gusts up to 20-25 mph and daytime highs in the low to mid 70s. Marquardt Issued 345 PM CDT Fri Aug 9 2024 Tonight through Saturday night: Cloudy weather will continue this afternoon as moisture associated with the area of low pressure to our north continues to stream into southern Wisconsin. Overnight lows will be in the low 50s, mid 50s closer to the lake. Saturday will be similar to today with breezy conditions and diurnal cumulus as the low to our north continues to move eastward and high pressure builds into the region.
This, combined with cooler and drier air that was ushered into the area from yesterday's FROPA, will make for a nice, pleasant day with no rain in the forecast. Some spots over northeast Alabama and southern middle Tennessee may see cooler temperatures, in the lower to mid 80s. Additionally, dew points this afternoon will dip into the upper 50s to lower 60s (perhaps even lower into the lower 50s if some of the Hi-Res guidance is correct), so it'll be much less muggy.
(This afternoon through Saturday) Similar to previous forecast discussions, the ridge continues to weaken, making way for deeper marine layer, breezy onshore conditions during the afternoon and evenings, and slightly cooler temperatures as the trough continues to build.
In the wake of a cold front passage overnight, dry and cool northwest wind and low-level cold-air advection is promoting temperatures of 10-15 degrees below mid-August normals areawide. The low is helping relegate a broad ridge centered roughly in the Four Corners region. Louis barely staying in the low 60s and the rest of the region dipping into the low/mid-50s. More of the same is expected Saturday and Saturday night: high pressure will promote dry conditions with continued weak cold-air advection keeping temperatures in the upper 70s to low 80s during the day and mid/upper 50s to low 60s at night.
(Today through Sunday) Cooler temps and beautiful weather is in store for this weekend, with dewpoints in the 50s it will feel much cooler outdoors. High temps look to be in the low to mid 80s both for today and Sunday, with very low chances for rain. Northerly winds around 5 to 10 mph with some higher gusts may help low level mixing and bring dewpoints down a few more degrees, but the cooler northerly flow should keep high temps in the 80s through the weekend despite the drier air mixing down to the surface.
1219 AM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024 (This evening through Saturday) Yesterday's cold front and last night's convection has through a wrench into today's forecast. 1 PM temperatures for many areas are 20+ degrees cooler than the were 24 hours ago as the warmest temp so far today is 88 degrees at Aspermont. Even more drastic is temps across the central and northern Texas Panhandle where 1 PM temps average in the low to mid 60s thanks to cloud cover. Convection is expected to be maintained under the trough as it pushes into the Texas Panhandle. Currently Highs in the low to mid 90s are expected.
Look for temps to remain slightly cooler then usual with highs in the upper 60s and low 70s. Current Conditions/Today: An upper level low continues to churn north of Lake Superior today providing cyclonic flow aloft and northwesterly winds at the surface.
Aloft, low pressure was located over Lake Superior and a flat upper ridge extended across the southern third of the nation leaving westerly flow over the forecast area.
/Issued 1234 AM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024/ /Through Sunday Afternoon/ A quiet morning is underway for all of North and Central Texas, with lows expected to dip into the low to mid 70s just before sunrise. Locations within the Metroplex will remain slightly warmer, with lows in the upper 70s. For now, the latest Heat Advisory was allowed to expire given much cooler conditions expected today.