Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
920 PM CST Sun Feb 4 2024 Vigorous upper level trough spinning over the Lower Miss Valley attm. We are still dealing with some very light rain and/or drizzle across most of the region attm but at the upper trough continues to move eastward towards the NE Gulf Coast by morning, we lose the upper level forcing and thus, we should lose the precipitation. Wrap around moisture on the west side of the low will maintain cloud-cover along with increased chances for light rain through tonight mainly across north Louisiana and south Arkansas. Overnight low temperatures tonight to fall into the low to mid 40s areawide. On Monday, surface and upper-level ridging to continue to gradually build across the region bringing improved sky conditions. Temperatures on Monday afternoon are forecast to climb into the lower 60s.
(Today) The last remaining rain band in north AL associated with the warm conveyor belt of deep layer low pressure system over south AL will either shift south or dissipate ver the next few hours. The dry advection and subsidence will clear cloud cover and allow temperatures to warm into the lower 60s for afternoon highs.
Low afternoon RH due to the warmer temps and drier air. Temperatures are in the low/mid 30s where winds are calm and upper 40s where winds remain. This is due to drier air moving in from the north as a deep area of low pressure pushes further to our south. With above normal temps and drier air, expect afternoon min RH values to be on the low side and range from the mid 20s to mid 30s for most places.
208 AM CST Mon Feb 5 2024 - Above normal temperatures early in the week will trend even warmer by the end of the week.
(Today) The last remaining rain band in north AL associated with the warm conveyor belt of a deep layer low pressure system over south AL will either shift south or dissipate over the next few hours. The dry advection and subsidence will clear cloud cover and allow temperatures to warm into the lower 60s for afternoon highs.
The freezing level tonight was around 11,800 feet, down roughly 1000 feet from this morning. Looking upstream at KLIX (Slidell, LA), their sounding had a freezing level around 7600 feet. It will modify before reaching our area but forecast soundings show freezing levels below 10,000 feet tomorrow during the day.
453 AM CST Mon Feb 5 2024 - Medium confidence (50% chance) dense fog and freezing fog develop late tonight into Tuesday morning.
518 AM CST Mon Feb 5 2024 (Today) The last remaining rain band in north AL associated with the warm conveyor belt of a deep layer low pressure system over south AL will either shift south or dissipate over the next few hours. The dry advection and subsidence will clear cloud cover and allow temperatures to warm into the lower 60s for afternoon highs.
Southwest flow sets up for today and Tuesday as a deep trough sits along the West Coast.
503 AM CST Mon Feb 5 2024 (Today through Tuesday) The vertically stacked cold core upper low that brought thunder/hail to parts of the CWFA yesterday evening will continue to meander south and east today. That said, the frictional component of the cyclonic curvature in the low level pressure field should keep mostly overcast skies across the region. With the high pressure building in upstream, northerly or northeasterly winds will be breezy today and into the overnight. High pressure at the surface will begin to spread into the region, which should help lower winds and allow for the return of some sunshine. With the increase in insolation and increase in heights with the departing ULL, max temperatures on Tuesday should be roughly 10 degrees warmer than what is currently advertised for today for many locations.
It will be a bit cool for the next couple of mornings, especially Tuesday when much of the Midsouth will be in the low to middle 30s.
948 AM EST Mon Feb 5 2024 High pressure and a persistent ridge through most of this week will provide for fair weather and above normal temperatures that will top out at 20 degrees or more above average by mid to late week.
High pressure will bring dry and warm weather for Monday.
636 AM EST Mon Feb 5 2024 Low pressure will continue to track south of the region today. High pressure will then build across much of the eastern United States for the rest of the week. Water vapor satellite showed an upper low near the FL Panhandle, and ridging across the Midwest. Surface observations displayed a few lows near northern FL, and high pressure stretching from the southern Plains to the Great Lakes region. High cirrus spread across the area this morning will become more sparse into the afternoon as the aforementioned upper low moves further south across central FL. Northerly flow will develop aloft Tuesday as the upper low to our south moves east and ridging across the Central U.
An upper- level ridge will begin moving into the region tonight with the ridge axis expected to be located across South Texas by tomorrow evening, which will allow for our winds to decrease. Cooler temperatures are expected today with highs struggling to break 70 degrees before warming back to more seasonal values tomorrow.
The strong winds that impacted the West Side Hills and Kern County alongside the moderate winds that impacted the rest of the San Joaquin Valley and Sierra Foothills have tapered off due to a cold front that is passing through the area. Tomorrow, in conjunction with the cold front moving through, there is a slight risk of afternoon and evening thunderstorms in the northwest portion of our forecast area including Western Fresno, Madera, and Mariposa Counties, as well as Merced Counties.
733 AM EST Mon Feb 5 2024 High pressure will maintain dry weather and above average temperatures through much of the week.
520 AM CST Mon Feb 5 2024 (Today through Tuesday) Both sfc and upper low are well off to our east early this morning over the northern Gulf Coast, but will continue to influence our weather locally through the morning with breezy northerly winds over portions of the area. Wrap-around moisture will keep some cloud cover over the east half of the area for much of today, and combined with the weak CAA we'll see high temperatures a touch cooler than average. Upper ridging to our west will amplify today and the axis should be overhead by sunrise Tuesday.
The mid/upper level low responsible for this past weekend's rain, will continue to exit southeast and out of the region today. Breezy northerly winds now over the region will result in slightly cooler drier air advecting into the forecast area through the period. /19/ By Tuesday, drier air will filter into the region through mid-week as broad ridging allows for increased heights and above normal temperatures through the end of the week. Highs on Tuesday through the remainder of the period range from the lower 60s to lower 70s, while lows range from the upper 40s to middle 50s.
A freezing fog advisory is in effect for portions of the region.
502 AM CST Mon Feb 5 2024 (Today through Tuesday) Dry conditions will prevail through Tuesday due to building ridging influences surface and aloft. Tonight lows should generally stay above freezing in low to mid 30s.
Thanks to differing timing in the clearing of clouds and light rain today, highs will vary with I-20 as the rough demarcation: in the upper-50s to lower-60s to the north and in the low-to-mid 50s to the south.
(Today and tonight) This is the tail end of our bomb cyclone event. Bomb, meaning the intensity of the low pressure, not bomb meaning awesome, like the night shift forecasting team. WPC analysis puts the low at 978mb and msas/laps data is about 980mb. Given that the low is still spinning off the coast strong winds continue to impact the region.
Winds will pick up a little mid to late morning as mixing commences, but overall, will decrease through the day as lower level ridge settles in over the region.
The rest of this forecast period looks quiet as high pressure at the surface works its way eastward across the area and mid/upper level ridging builds across the state. High temperatures today will be in the low to mid 60s, and lots of sun on Tuesday will boost the highs just a bit, into the mid to upper 60s.
(Now through Tuesday) A very large mid/upper low pressure area centered over the coastal Alabama and the western Florida Panhandle will swing southeastward over the eastern Gulf and Florida Peninsula through tonight. Strong northeasterly to northerly winds aloft on the backside of the upper low will help to push a drier airmass into the region, with dry conditions occurring through the remainder of the period. With a cold front moving through and thick cloud cover, highs today will struggle to reach into the mid to upper 50s, with some locations only reaching the lower 50s.
413 AM EST Mon Feb 5 2024 A dry northerly flow will continue over the Keystone State through at least the Middle of this week, between high pressure that extended across Manitoba province south to the Upper Mississippi Valley and deep low spinning southeast of Nova Scotia. Northerly winds will display some minor gusts into the low to mid teens this afternoon across mainly the eastern half of the CWA. Mins will range from the upper teens over the Northern Mtns to the mid and upper 20s in the Lower Susq Valley. Max temps will be a few deg F cooler across the south, but a few deg milder than Monday over the NW Mtns thanks to less daytime cloud cover.
535 AM EST Mon Feb 5 2024 High pressure will maintain dry weather and above average temperatures through much of the week.
342 AM CST Mon Feb 5 2024 - Medium confidence (50% probability) dense fog and freezing fog develop late tonight into Tuesday morning.
An upper low continues to spin near the western panhandle of Florida. An area of low pressure moves through the eastern gulf waters today producing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. This low will slowly traverse eastward across Florida and will be located north of the Bahamas by early Tuesday morning taking most of the weather with it. A tight pressure gradient on the back side of this low will produce gusty northerly winds that has warranted the issuance of a Small Craft Advisory from this evening through Tuesday evening. As the low moves farther eastward into the Atlantic, the gradient slackens as high pressure builds in from the north producing pleasant weather for the remainder of the week.
416 AM EST Mon Feb 5 2024 A dry northerly flow will continue over the Keystone State through at least the Middle of this week, between high pressure that extended across Manitoba province south to the Upper Mississippi Valley and deep low spinning southeast of Nova Scotia. Northerly winds will display some minor gusts into the low to mid teens this afternoon across mainly the eastern half of the CWA. Mins will range from the upper teens over the Northern Mtns to the mid and upper 20s in the Lower Susq Valley. Max temps will be a few deg F cooler across the south, but a few deg milder than Monday over the NW Mtns thanks to less daytime cloud cover.
As the upper low continues tracking northward today there will be leftover showers mainly near and east of the Cascades with PoPs of 30-50% through Tuesday. This morning's temperatures will start in the low 40s for the coast, mid- /upper 30s for inland areas west of the Cascades, and upper 20s and low 30s east.
422 AM CST Mon Feb 5 2024 - Slick spots on untreated surfaces, especially bridges and overpasses, and visibilities down to 1/4 mile or less are possible into Monday morning in areas of freezing fog. Freezing fog has largely confined itself to the spine of the Kettle Moraine and the Fox River Lowlands around Lake Winnebago this morning. Freezing fog is likely with surface temperatures expected to be below freezing until the mid morning hours and some slick spots possible on untreated surfaces. Once again, areas that stay cloudy will remain cooler today with highs near 40, while areas that see sunshine may reach the mid to upper 40s.
721 AM EST Mon Feb 5 2024 A dry northerly flow will continue over the Keystone State through at least the Middle of this week, between high pressure that extended across Manitoba province south to the Upper Mississippi Valley and deep low pressure spinning southeast of Nova Scotia. Northerly winds will display some minor gusts into the low to mid teens this afternoon across mainly the eastern half of the CWA. Mins will range from the upper teens over the Northern Mtns to the mid and upper 20s in the Lower Susq Valley. Max temps will be a few deg F cooler across the south, but a few deg milder than Monday over the NW Mtns thanks to less daytime cloud cover.
631 AM EST Mon Feb 5 2024 A dry northerly flow will continue over the Keystone State through at least the Middle of this week, between high pressure that extended across Manitoba province south to the Upper Mississippi Valley and deep low spinning southeast of Nova Scotia. Northerly winds will display some minor gusts into the low to mid teens this afternoon across mainly the eastern half of the CWA. Mins will range from the upper teens over the Northern Mtns to the mid and upper 20s in the Lower Susq Valley. Max temps will be a few deg F cooler across the south, but a few deg milder than Monday over the NW Mtns thanks to less daytime cloud cover.
314 AM CST Mon Feb 5 2024 (Today through Tuesday afternoon) WV imagery shows the upper trough over the Gulf Coast states, with an upper ridge developing into West Texas and Southeast New Mexico.
540 AM CST Mon Feb 5 2024 (Today and tonight) The stacked low pressure system that has produced wind across the forecast area the last couple of days has moved to the central Gulf Coast. However, a significant trough axis extends as far to the northwest as northwest Texas early this morning with significant low level cloud cover wrapping around the low in conjunction with the northwest extension of the trough. This is going to quickly change however, as the trough finally shifts well southward into the western Gulf of Mexico by noon and upper level ridging edges eastward across New Mexico. Cirrus will move in from the west as the mid/upper ridge axis moves eastward across the southern High Plains.
545 AM CST Mon Feb 5 2024 - Above normal temperatures early in the week will trend even warmer by the end of the week.
Showers continue Tuesday night through the weekend, with cooler temperatures and increased chances of snow in valleys. Temperatures were a couple to a few degrees warmer overnight than the NBM originally forecast. Contemplated ending a couple of the Winter Weather Advisories overnight due to the slightly warmer temperatures that are expected through noon today. Tuesday evening the upper level jet will have exited east, with a cooler trough moving in over the inter- mountain west (and NV), which will help drop snow levels back to most valley floors Tuesday night.
The widespread nature of the rain has ended, but there still is scattered showers rotating around the low across the area. The low itself is in our southeastern counties and will be exiting later this morning. By sunset the low will be east of southern Florida, with high pressure building in behind. This will allow the north to be warmer than the south for this afternoon. Skies will finish clearing out tonight and lows will drop into the 30s, with a few location in the north and northeast dropping to below freezing. As we work into Tuesday, high pressure will be building to our north, so plenty of sun will be possible.
Chances for freezing drizzle remain low (20%) and are dependent upon surface temperatures.
523 AM CST Mon Feb 5 2024 It will be a bit cool for the next couple of mornings, especially Tuesday when much of the Midsouth will be in the low to middle 30s.
516 AM CST Mon Feb 5 2024 (Today through Tuesday Night) H500 cyclone continues to rotate its way south of the area with precip and associated cloud cover departing the state as well. Before H500 ridging moves over the region by mid-week, mid-level nrly flow will be in place and sfc ridging will remain just north of the state.
1130 AM CST Mon Feb 5 2024 Cool high pressure is building into the the region as the upper low near the Gulf Coast departs. It will be a bit cool for the next couple of mornings, especially Tuesday when much of the Midsouth will be in the low to middle 30s.
High temperatures on Tuesday to climb into the low to mid 60s.
1134 AM CST Mon Feb 5 2024 (Today through Tuesday afternoon) WV imagery shows the upper trough over the Gulf Coast states, with an upper ridge developing into West Texas and Southeast New Mexico.
204 PM EST Mon Feb 5 2024 High pressure will continue to provide fair weather with generally mild temperatures for early February.
(This Evening and Tonight) With the low pressure system that brought us dense cloud cover and rain yesterday departing the area, clear conditions are now prevailing in most locations. Ample sunshine is helping to warm temperatures into the low to mid 60s in most locations as of early/mid afternoon, in spite of the light northeast flow.
1234 PM EST Mon Feb 5 2024 High pressure will maintain dry weather and above average temperatures through much of the week.
(This evening through Tuesday) With light winds and mostly clear skies tonight, radiational cooling will likely result in areas of fog toward morning (CAMs show the highest chances in parts of western Oklahoma).
1056 AM CST Mon Feb 5 2024 (Today through Tuesday Night) H500 cyclone continues to rotate its way south of the area with precip and associated cloud cover departing the state as well. Before H500 ridging moves over the region by mid-week, mid-level nrly flow will be in place and sfc ridging will remain just north of the state.
(This afternoon through Tuesday night) Ridging will move off to the east tonight and a short wave trough will be approaching the area from the west on Tuesday. Southwest upper level flow in advance of this trough along with southeast surface winds beginning this evening and continuing into tomorrow night will bring in more moisture and high clouds.
Precipitation along a warm front stretches across central Idaho this morning. Gusty south-southeast winds associated with a low pressure system to our west will continue through this afternoon, although the strongest winds already occurred earlier this morning.
1135 AM CST Mon Feb 5 2024 (Today through Tuesday) Dry conditions will prevail through Tuesday due to building ridging influences surface and aloft. Tonight lows should generally stay above freezing in low to mid 30s.
Skies were clear as high pressure was building in from the west and northwest. An upper ridge extends from Texas northeast to southeastern Canada this afternoon and moves only very slowly east tonight and Tuesday. However with cooler highs not expecting quite as low relative humidity values. High pressure was building southeast and the lighter winds will allow for better radiational cooling tonight. Tuesday, highs a couple degrees cooler but still several degrees above average for this time of year.
Upper level troughing continues, bringing moisture aloft to Southwest Montana today with mountain snowfall along the MT/ID border.
The last time the Florida Keys reported hail was in Key Largo on April 4, 2022, while the last time the Lower Keys reported hail was June 6, 2018. The kinematic fields are cyclonic at all levels, and forecast soundings suggest a cooler BL profile throughout the day. This low will drive strong to near gale westerly breezes across the region through Tuesday night.
Good setup for radiational cooling will result, with overnight lows forecast more in line with slightly cooler CONSMOS vs the NBM.
(This evening through Tuesday) The last little bit of low stratus has finally burned off over the region as the upper level ridging has moved to just the west of the FA.
The low pressure will slowly traverse eastward and will be located north of the Bahamas by Tuesday morning.
1235 PM EST Mon Feb 5 2024 Dry and mild high pressure builds into the region, and dominates our weather through most of the work week.
The nearly stacked low pressure system was noted on satellite imagery spinning over the northern Gulf just south of Pensacola Florida. The mid/upper level low responsible for this past weekend's rain, will continue to exit southeast and out of the region today. Breezy northerly winds now over the region will result in slightly cooler drier air advecting into the forecast area through the period. /19/ By Tuesday, drier air will filter into the region through mid-week as broad ridging allows for increased heights and above normal temperatures through the end of the week. Highs on Tuesday through the remainder of the period range from the lower 60s to lower 70s, while lows range from the upper 40s to middle 50s.
1014 AM CST Mon Feb 5 2024 - Medium confidence (50% chance) dense fog and freezing fog develop late tonight into Tuesday morning.
Low pressure lingers just north of Cape Mendocino this morning and it will gradually lift slightly northward today before weakening and moving inland into Curry County this afternoon and evening. As this low drifts northward this morning, southerly gales south of Gold Beach and within 25 nm from shore early were being observed, roughly between 4 AM and 8 AM PST.
(This afternoon through Tuesday Night) Amazing day across Middle Tennessee for early February with sunny skies, temperatures in the low to mid 60s, and low RH. Gusty north winds up to 25 mph combined with the low RH has led to marginal fire danger conditions across the area, but this will rapidly improve after 23Z. After a chilly night tonight with lows around the freezing mark, tomorrow will be another nice albeit slightly cooler day with highs in the mid 50s to around 60. Lows look to drop back to around freezing Tuesday night.
(This evening through Tuesday) Central Alabama will be in the process of drying out today as the mid to upper level closed low continues to move southeastward over the Florida Peninsula. Warmer temperatures in the 60s are expected as a result across the northern half of Central Alabama, with southern locations expected to stay mostly overcast in the 50s. Northerly flow is expected to continue across much of the atmospheric profile as a 500mb ridge axis begins to build across Texas northward into the central Plains. The ridge axis will begin to head in our direction over the next couple of days. Highs should top out in the low to mid 60s Tuesday afternoon.
With temperatures still below freezing, slick spots remain possible on untreated surfaces in these locations. Freezing fog has largely confined itself to the spine of the Kettle Moraine and the Fox River Lowlands around Lake Winnebago this morning. Freezing fog is likely with surface temperatures expected to be below freezing until the mid morning hours and some slick spots possible on untreated surfaces. Once again, areas that stay cloudy will remain cooler today with highs near 40, while areas that see sunshine may reach the mid to upper 40s.
(Rest of Today) Tranquil weather across the Tennessee Valley this morning in wake of a departing low pressure system. In response to the sunshine, expect highs to continue climbing back into the low to mid 60s by this afternoon.
(Through Tuesday) An upper low will continue sliding southeast through the near term resulting in northerly flow prevailing across the area. At the surface, low pressure will also slide southeast with northerly flow prevailing through the near term ushering in cool and dry continental air. As high pressure continues to fill in, drier air and subsidence aloft will erode the cloud deck tomorrow throughout the morning with clear skies in the forecast for the remainder of the day. Opted to side with MOS guidance this forecast cycle for the high temperatures tomorrow despite persistent cold air advection via northerly flow and nudged temperatures up a couple degrees across the board.
352 PM EST Mon Feb 5 2024 A large ocean low pressure system will stay well east of the Gulf of Maine through tonight while high pressure settles across the Saint Lawrence River Valley. High pressure will then build toward the region Tuesday.