Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
627 AM EDT Thu Jul 31 2025 Occasional showers and a chance of thunderstorms will continue today as a cold front moves south through the region. Behind the front, high pressure and a drier, cooler airmass will settle into the Ohio Valley through the rest of the week. With some cooler air filtering into the area behind the front, we will end up with a pretty good temperature gradient across our area today. High will range from the low 70s northwest to the upper 80s southeast.
A subtle westward shift of the upper level high will bring atmospheric moisture west along with it, as well as drive Gulf of California moisture northward through western Pima county. The upper level high is expected to center over southern Arizona and southern California by this weekend, driving moisture southward out of southeastern Arizona and temperatures upward.
Another day of dangerously hot conditions in W Central FL as a the pocket of dry air aloft persists limiting afternoon cloud cover and late day PoPs which will allow temps to warm significantly in the high Td surface airmass producing heat index values of over 108 again today and the heat advisory has been expanded to all zones except SW FL, similar to yesterday. Guidance continues to show a slow increase in mean layer moisture Fri through the weekend as the Western Atlantic high pressure ridge axis meanders over the region but generally over S FL with light SW-W flow with isolated to scattered late night and morning convection over the coastal waters and near the coast each day moving inland and becoming scattered to numerous over the interior and eastern half of the Florida peninsula each afternoon and evening.
531 AM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025 - Aside from a 20-40% chance of showers today, dry and much cooler conditions are forecast through this weekend. A cold front is currently pushing through southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois. Highs will only range from about 75 to 85 degrees from north to south, which for most places will be akin to the lows they've been experiencing for the past two weeks. Low-lying and sheltered areas will likely be even cooler. Yet here I type that a climatological max strength, cool season-esque high pressure system will make this reality. This dominant high pressure system will keep the forecast consistently cool and dry through this weekend.
GOES East water vapor observations show a deep layer of dry air across the Florida Keys, and the higher resolution visible satellite imagery detects a slight amount of high altitude cirrus clouds and patchy cumulus clouds near across the nearshore waters. From synopsis, a weak western arm of an Atlantic ridge will remain across South Florida and the Keys over the next couple of days. The ridge will lift northward into Central Florida heading into the weekend.
Due to the low rain rates and decreasing coverage of showers, the Flood Watch has been cancelled for this morning.
542 AM EDT Thu Jul 31 2025 A cold front provides much cooler conditions today and for the weekend. Isolated/scattered afternoon/evening storms are possible until the cold front passes through tonight. Today a cold front will pass through the area promoting cloudy skies and shower/storm activity across the entire area as well as cooler air filtering in. Fairly confident that heat indexes will not reach 100, although some localized spots may in fact hit that threshold but the overall average will be below 100 degrees and more likely in the low to mid 90s across the board.
735 AM EDT Thu Jul 31 2025 Cloudy weather with much cooler conditions are expected today into Friday, with the potential for a flooding rainfall across portions of southern New England.
405 AM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025 - Much cooler today with highs in the mid 70s to around 80 degrees, although mildly humid conditions will likely linger.
751 AM EDT Thu Jul 31 2025 (Today through Friday) Upper level ridging remains in place across Florida today. Overnight and early morning scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will give way to sea-breeze driven storms during the afternoon and early evening each day, with the highest PoPs favoring inland areas and SW FL.
620 AM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025 - A cold front will bring an end to the heat wave today, along with a chance (25-40%) of thunderstorms through the daytime hours. - Much cooler and less humid conditions are forecast Friday through the weekend.
Lightning was on the higher side today with the NLDN detecting ~875 cloud to ground flashes with the ENTLN detecting around 2900 cloud to ground flashes.
623 AM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025 Updated at 622 AM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025 - A passing front will lead to a sharp gradient in high temperatures this afternoon, cooler across the SW TX Panhandle and warmer across the SE Rolling Plains.
551 AM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025 (Today) While the weakening of the upper level ridge as it progresses westward has been realized, there is one more day of heat we have to endure before relatively cooler temperatures can be experienced.
619 AM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025 High pressure in the upper layers will maintain dry, hot conditions through the forecast. Despite near-normal temperatures for this time of year, return of moisture with an inverted trough in the mid- layers will allow for a sudden jump to uncomfortable conditions. The highest apparent temperatures are expected along US-83 into Hidalgo and Starr counties, and along and east of I-69C, particularly inland Kenedy and inland Willacy counties.
629 AM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025 - Much cooler today with highs in the mid 70s to around 80 degrees, although mildly humid conditions will likely linger.
848 AM EDT Thu Jul 31 2025 * Cold front will bring scattered showers/storms this afternoon and tonight, with a transition from heat and humidity to cooler and less humid weather.
708 AM EDT Thu Jul 31 2025 * Cold front will bring scattered showers/storms this afternoon and tonight, with a transition from heat and humidity to cooler and less humid weather.
Otherwise, the heat is not quite as bullish so far this morning as modified air advecting in from the south has tempered the thermal ridge some compared to yesterday.
135 PM EDT Thu Jul 31 2025 A cold front provides much cooler conditions today and for the weekend. Isolated/scattered afternoon/evening storms are possible until the cold front passes through tonight. A cold front will meander over the area through tonight. Showers may continue mainly along the higher elevations this evening, waning down during the early overnight hours. High pressure builds behind the front, providing mostly dry conditions for Friday. Drier weather conditions are anticipated Friday night into the weekend as the high pressure takes control. Drier weather conditions are anticipated Friday night into the weekend as the high pressure takes control.
214 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025 - Much cooler and far less humid conditions are forecast Friday through the weekend.
While this will bring the humidity up, the chances of rain are not expected to increase due to high pressure aloft. This area of high pressure is expected to persist over the region for the next several days. The high temperatures are generally expected to be in the triple digits for most of the area. With the low-level moisture flow, the heat indices are expected to be close to 110 almost every day. At the Lower Texas beaches, the swell and surf are expected to be low for the next several days.
1211 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025 - A cold front will bring an end to the heat wave today, along with a chance (25-40%) of thunderstorms through the daytime hours. - Much cooler and less humid conditions are forecast Friday through the weekend.
(This evening through Friday) Water vapor imagery this morning reveals upper level ridging across the southeast beginning to weaken as a trough across the Plains nudges east. A surface cold front can also be analyzed off to our northwest. The arrival of this front and the weakening ridge will bring a nice relief from this relentless heat across Central Alabama.
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: A weak upper ridge with a relaxed jet stream will keep any thunderstorms from being severe through tomorrow. An upper low or disturbance this afternoon will help to generate scattered thunderstorms tonight across the CWA.
Cooler-than-normal temperatures turn warmer into the weekend. RAP Analysis shows a 1029mb high pressure centered over the northern MN/Canada border expanding across much of the Upper Midwest. Aloft, ridging over the Rockies opposes deep troughs/cutoff lows over the Gulf of Alaska and Atlantic Canada.
1216 PM EDT Thu Jul 31 2025 - Cooler and less humid weather Friday into this weekend. As a result, the faster clearing may allow NW areas to end up warmer for highs today than SE spots under the cloud cover. Over the next days a long overdue transition to cool and much less humid conditions will occur as high pressure builds from the north. Overnight lows tonight will bottom out in the low to mid 50s, with temperatures this "cold" not having been felt since the first half of June.
Cooler temperatures on the way. An upper trough digging south over the East Coast this weekend shifts an upper high over the Florida Peninsula west over the Gulf to over the Southern Plains.
Pattern Synopsis: A ridge west/trof east configuration is in place across much of North America, although weaker zonal flow lies across the southern half of the United States. At the surface, high pressure is centered in the vicinity of the Great Lakes. Pattern Synopsis: Ridge west/trof east configuration lingers through most of the weekend, but will become less amplified with time. This will leave a more zonal flow, albeit weak, across the lower 48 states for the first half of the next work week.
Fog Potential Tonight: Canadian high pressure will become centered over the northwest half of the forecast area tonight. Canadian high pressure will set up across the region through at least the weekend, leading to dry weather, cool nights, warm days and low humidity.
High pressure and weak surface flow support continued smoke exposure as there is nothing to scour the existing smoke out of the area. High pressure is located over the northern Red River valley at 08z and will drift southeast today.
- Below average temperatures are expected through the rest of the week and weekend, with highs mainly in the lower 70s to lower 80s and lows in the lower 50s to lower 60s. This afternoon, ridging aloft over the Northern Rockies extended into the Canadian Prairies, with troughing across both the northeastern CONUS and off the west coast. We are carrying low to medium chances for showers and thunderstorms through this afternoon and tonight across western and south central North Dakota, as embedded impulses ride through the ridge across Montana. Current blended POPs have the highest probabilities for showers and thunderstorms across the southwest and far south central Friday and Friday night. High temps on Friday will be in the lower 70s to lower 80s.
This high will continue to provide fair weather into the weekend. Showers will continue to decrease this evening as a wave of low pressure and the accompanying frontal boundary move away from our area. High pressure will offer mostly clear skies and a steady northeasterly flow through the period.
- Cooler temperatures will occur into this weekend. Surface pattern this afternoon was highlighted by high pressure over the northern Plains into the Great Lakes filling in behind the cold front that moved through the region overnight into southern AR to along the Red River with an inverted trough extending along I-44 in OK into southeast KS. Aloft a north to south orientated upper ridge extended from the desert southwest up the Rockies and closed lows/troughs over the British Columbia coast and another exiting the eastern Canada.
1210 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025 - Much cooler today with highs in the mid 70s to around 80 degrees, although mildly humid conditions will likely linger.
Corrected individual section headers to be reflective of (Tonight through Friday) Local area remains in a weakness between two upper ridges, so with an absence of any large scale forcing, diurnally induced instability will be the main driver of convection this afternoon through this evening. Despite the lower moisture content, we should still see isolated to widely scattered showers and storms start to develop as we move into peak heating hours. Going into tomorrow, an upper level trough axis will move past the Great Lakes region toward the northeastern CONUS. With the weak troughing aloft and the boundary approaching from the north, expect to see an increase in convective coverage tomorrow afternoon.
249 PM EDT Thu Jul 31 2025 High pressure builds into the area Tonight through the weekend bringing dry, mostly sunny and seasonable weather conditions. It looks like our threat of heavy rain has subsided as forecast soundings show some mid level capping moving in with some 850 mb to 700 mb ridging building in suppressing any elevated convection. NEPA may still see some higher rates as the mid level ridge wont move in until later this evening but with the deep convection already to the south, the low level jet will have a tough time getting north enough to feed and sustain any convection in our area. With high pressure moving in tonight into tomorrow a little faster than forecast, sky cover was lowered for tomorrow morning into the early afternoon and chances of precipitation were removed after 12Z.
1207 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025 - Aside from a 20-40% chance of showers today, dry and much cooler conditions are forecast through this weekend. A cold front is currently pushing through southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois. Highs will only range from about 75 to 85 degrees from north to south, which for most places will be akin to the lows they've been experiencing for the past two weeks. Low-lying and sheltered areas will likely be even cooler. Yet here I type that a climatological max strength, cool season-esque high pressure system will make this reality. This dominant high pressure system will keep the forecast consistently cool and dry through this weekend.
1108 AM EDT Thu Jul 31 2025 A hot start to this Thursday with temperatures already reaching the lower to mid 90s and heat index values following into the triple digits. Guidance has struggled to capture the warming trend and was several degrees cooler at the start of diurnal warm-up this morning which necessitated a quick grid update to trend towards the warmer side of the guidance envelope. (Today through Friday) Upper level ridging remains in place across Florida today. Overnight and early morning scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will give way to sea-breeze driven storms during the afternoon and early evening each day, with the highest PoPs favoring inland areas and SW FL.
302 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025 Through Friday: The increased interaction of the frontal boundary approaching from the north with the high levels of heat/moisture is fueling greater coverage of deep convection today along/north of the I-20 corridor. The thermal ridge south of the boundary will support reaching heat advisory criteria, and wouldn't be surprised if we see a few locations reach extreme heat criteria, but considerable diurnal convective coverage will limit the duration and will hold off on another extreme heat warning.
High pressure will continue to dominate the Southwest through the next several days. Isolated chances for showers/storms each afternoon through the end of the week, primarily across the higher terrain. Arizona still remains wedged between a weak trough across the West Coast and a large area of high pressure to our east. A similar story will pan out for tomorrow, where convective activity will be limited to the higher terrain, especially across the eastern Mogollon Rim and White Mountains. Over the weekend we'll be under a slight pattern transition, where the previously mentioned ridge will push westward and the weak trough pulls more northward.
- Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected across much of the Four-State area tonight and "Some may be Heavy" on Friday and Friday night with slow movement along the cold front. - The cold front remains on track with drier air from the NE during the mid to late day north of I-20 and then dropping southward Friday evening and overnight. The cold front lies just to the north and will have much work done in the wake of this activity. And still perhaps some compressional heating ahead of the cold front to spike calculations through the late afternoon hours.
A potent short wave trough from the south will develop scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening.
Cooler temperatures arrive tonight and persist through this weekend.
Current surface dew points in Western Pima County is in the high 50s to low 60s and satellite estimated PWs in the 1. /issued 309 AM MST Thu Jul 31 2025/ A subtle westward shift of the upper level high will bring atmospheric moisture west along with it, as well as drive Gulf of California moisture northward through western Pima county. The upper level high is expected to center over southern Arizona and southern California by this weekend, driving moisture southward out of southeastern Arizona and temperatures upward.
112 PM EDT Thu Jul 31 2025 A hot start to this Thursday with temperatures already reaching the lower to mid 90s and heat index values following into the triple digits. Guidance has struggled to capture the warming trend and was several degrees cooler at the start of diurnal warm-up this morning which necessitated a quick grid update to trend towards the warmer side of the guidance envelope. (Today through Friday) Upper level ridging remains in place across Florida today. Overnight and early morning scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will give way to sea-breeze driven storms during the afternoon and early evening each day, with the highest PoPs favoring inland areas and SW FL.
317 PM EDT Thu Jul 31 2025 - Cool and dry this evening with temperatures dropping into the low to mid 50s overnight.
As the mid-level ridge shifts westward and is no longer overhead, we're seeing an increase in moisture over the area.
- Cold front continues to push through the region with 20-50% shower and thunderstorm chances today/ tonight and 20-60% storm chances Friday.
Updated at 1229 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025 - A weak cold front helps bring near to slightly below normal highs and low (10-30%) rain chances over the Davis Mountains and Permian Basin/Low Rolling Plains Friday afternoon.
(Tonight through Friday) Local area remains in a weakness between two upper ridges, so with an absence of any large scale forcing, diurnally induced instability will be the main driver of convection this afternoon through this evening. Despite the lower moisture content, we should still see isolated to widely scattered showers and storms start to develop as we move into peak heating hours. Going into tomorrow, an upper level trough axis will move past the Great Lakes region toward the northeastern CONUS. With the weak troughing aloft and the boundary approaching from the north, expect to see an increase in convective coverage tomorrow afternoon.
642 PM EDT Thu Jul 31 2025 - Cool and dry with temperatures dropping into the low to mid 50s overnight.
557 PM MDT Thu Jul 31 2025 - Showers and thunderstorms will form along the high terrain tomorrow afternoon with an increasing potential for gusty outflow winds up to 45 mph. The coverage of afternoon convection will decrease as a result with most showers and storms developing over the higher terrain.
--------------------------------------------------------------- Afternoon showers and storms have now exited the area this evening as the cold front slides south out of our area. Combined with dew points dipping into the low 50s up north and upper 50s/low 60s farther south, low temperatures will dip into the 50s and 60s across the board; a great night to give the AC a break and open those windows. - Isolated showers in the West Virginia ridges. If showers redevelop during the day on Friday, it will likely be along the ridges in Fayette County PA and parts of West Virginia with some weak low-level convergence. Below average temperatures are expected in the wake of a cold front to persist into the weekend. KEY MESSAGES: - Pattern shift supports cooler conditions over the weekend.
640 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025 - Cold front continues to push through the region with 20-50% shower and thunderstorm chances tonight and 20-60% storm chances Friday.
Ridging aloft and at the surface over the region continues to slowly shift south as troughing digs over the NE U. (00Z TAFS) Onshore flow setup continues with ridge axis over southern FL peninsula, favoring majority of convection interior and east of terminals afternoon and evening.
The western flank of the Atlantic Ridge remain drapes across the Keys, which is keeping our winds out of the east and southeast. Tonight's sounding shows that we continue to pool moisture in the low levels. A weak western arm of an Atlantic ridge will remain across South Florida and the Keys over the next couple of days. The ridge will lift northward into Central Florida heading into the weekend.
704 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025 (Tonight through Friday night) The subtropical ridge slowly drifts west today allowing an inverted trough to shift west towards the Texas coast. Better chances for rain come tomorrow as a weak cold front enters Texas and drifts south towards our area during the day.
657 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025 Updated at 654 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025 - A weak cold front helps bring near to slightly below normal highs and low (10-30%) rain chances over the Davis Mountains and Permian Basin/Low Rolling Plains Friday afternoon.
330 PM MDT Thu Jul 31 2025 - Showers and thunderstorms will form along the high terrain tomorrow afternoon with an increasing potential for gusty outflow winds up to 45 mph. The coverage of afternoon convection will decrease as a result with most showers and storms developing over the higher terrain.
622 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025 A line of convection sweeping southwest across the region has driven an outflow boundary with cooler air in its wake across much of the region. /05/ - Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected across much of the Four-State area tonight and "Some may be Heavy" on Friday and Friday night with slow movement along the cold front. - The cold front remains on track with drier air from the NE during the mid to late day north of I-20 and then dropping southward Friday evening and overnight. The cold front lies just to the north and will have much work done in the wake of this activity. And still perhaps some compressional heating ahead of the cold front to spike calculations through the late afternoon hours.
* Cooler and less humid air returns for Friday into the weekend.
- Below average temperatures are expected through the weekend, with highs mainly in the lower 70s to lower 80s and lows in the lower 50s to lower 60s. This afternoon, ridging aloft over the Northern Rockies extended into the Canadian Prairies, with troughing across both the northeastern CONUS and off the west coast. We are carrying low to medium chances for showers and thunderstorms through this afternoon and tonight across western and south central North Dakota, as embedded impulses ride through the ridge across Montana. Current blended POPs have the highest probabilities for showers and thunderstorms across the southwest and far south central Friday and Friday night. High temps on Friday will be in the lower 70s to lower 80s.
800 PM MDT Thu Jul 31 2025 - Showers and thunderstorms will form along the high terrain tomorrow afternoon with an increasing potential for gusty outflow winds up to 45 mph. The coverage of afternoon convection will decrease as a result with most showers and storms developing over the higher terrain.