Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
615 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024 (Tonight) Strong cold front currently passing through NE OK will continue steady progress eastward and clear western AR and far SE OK by mid evening. Scattered storms will remain possible along the boundary before it clears the forecast area with breezy northerly winds and noticeably cooler temperatures overnight.
907 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024 - Windy again on Friday, continued cooler than normal.
638 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024 (This evening through Friday) As of 2:30 PM, the cold front extended from Holdenville to Ardmore and breezy north winds with gusts of 35 to 45 mph have been observed behind the boundary. A cooler airmass has entered much of Oklahoma with coolest temperatures currently in the mid 50's across parts of northern and west-central Oklahoma. Winds gradually decrease overnight, and though winds will be light by dawn on Friday, wind chills could drop into the low 30's.
759 PM EDT Thu Apr 18 2024 A low pressure system moves through the region, bringing showers and thunderstorms during the overnight hours into Friday.
The dry and benign weather continues tonight with near average low temperatures expected (ranging from the lower 60s near the Lake to the low 70s near the east coast). As the high shifts eastward, the winds will veer and allow for a more distinct southeastward wind flow.
641 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024 - Sub-freezing temperatures expected to return to portions of the forecast area tonight, mainly north of the tri-cities.
Temperatures are forecast to drop into the low to mid 30s.
641 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024 (This afternoon through Friday night) A cold front is ahead of schedule and currently moving through the Permian Basin putting an abrupt halt to daytime heating. The low clouds will prevent much diurnal variation in temperatures Friday suggesting MAV guidance is too optimistic. By contrast the MET is showing much cooler temperatures, which may occur, but there is still a great deal of uncertainty in how cool the airmass is so stayed close to the NBM guidance which is about an even split between the GFS and NAM.
1055 PM EDT Thu Apr 18 2024 A low pressure system moves through the region, bringing showers and thunderstorms during the overnight hours into Friday.
A touch cooler Friday as a weak system moves through.
Our ridging pattern will remain over the area, keeping conditions mild throughout the remainder of the week. Valley Highs for Friday through the weekend will be in the upper 70s and low 80s with lows in the low to mid 50s.
606 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024 - Winds subside this evening with cooler temperatures lingering through this weekend.
640 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024 (This evening through Friday) Cold front continues to move southward across the area this afternoon. Much cooler tonight behind the front, with lows dipping into the upper 40s north of I-20 and the 50s across most of the rest of west central Texas. Friday will be much cooler compared to today, with highs in the 60s and 70s.
Tonight through Friday night A trough of low pressure exits east with zonal flow over the region, bringing warm and dry conditions for much of the day Friday.
(The rest of tonight) Cold front has almost cleared the CWA as of 9 PM with a much cooler airmass spreading over the area.
629 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024 (This evening through Friday night) A fairly broad upper level trough pushing south out of Canada will continue to expand across the High Plains to upper Mississippi River Valley the rest of this afternoon and evening. A cold front associated with this trough is moving southeast through OK, TX, and AR.
1036 PM EDT Thu Apr 18 2024 Another round of showers and storms Friday with a cold front. Cooler and drier this weekend. Overall, dry today, with high pressure surface and aloft temporarily in control. Showers ad storms will return early Friday with the approach of a low and associated cold front.
953 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024 The mid-evening sfc analysis indicates that our cold front has entered Nrn and Wrn McCurtain County OK, tailing SW to near PRX, TRL, and ACT as of 0230Z. The frontal sfc is expected to become more shallow as it seeps through the higher terrain of the Ouachitas overnight, with any cold advection minimal as it nears the I-20 corridor of extreme Ern TX/NW LA by daybreak.
The steady dry and warming trend continues through the rest of the work week, with high pressure overhead and a thermal trough developing along the coast. A few pockets of frost and freeze are possible, but widespread freezing conditions are not expected west of the Cascades.
643 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024 - Cool with temperatures well below normal through the first part of the weekend, then warmer.
Ahead of the cold front, low-medium shower/storm chances (30-60%) will be possible through the overnight hours. Otherwise, low temperatures are forecast to remain in the low to mid 60s under scattered to broken cloud cover. The cold front is forecast to reach our area in the morning hours.
612 PM EDT Thu Apr 18 2024 High pressure crosses the region tonight into Friday.
911 PM EDT Thu Apr 18 2024 High pressure crosses the region overnight into Friday.
746 PM EDT Thu Apr 18 2024 High pressure over the Gulf of Maine will slowly track out to sea on Friday. Meanwhile, low pressure north of the Great Lakes will slowly track east and will drag a cold front across the region Friday and Friday night. The front becomes stationary south of the Mid-Atlantic through the weekend as high pressure builds in from the north.
Currently - Deep layered ridging dominates the local area. Short Term Update - The previously mentioned ridge will shift a bit further east into the Atlantic through the night. As a result, overnight lows should range quite a bit in the lower to mid 70s with dew points continuing to edge up towards 70. Stable conditions will remain in place due to continued deep layered ridging and a lower subsidence inversion. A ridge across Florida will maintain gentle to moderate mostly easterly breezes on Keys waters through the overnight period.
539 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024 (Rest of today through Friday) We started off cloudy this morning, but the clouds have been breaking up and we expect temps to take off into the low to mid 80s this afternoon. Later this evening, another batch of thunderstorms in the form of a weakening QLCS will come from the west ahead of a cold front. We will be left with mostly cloudy and cooler conditions as a north breeze drops temps back to normal or a little cooler than normal. (Friday Night through next Thursday) Through the weekend, surface winds will continue to come from the north as the center of cool high pressure slides southward across the plains. Weekend temps will be a little cooler than normal.
The arrival of colder air will cause the overnight lows Thursday into Friday reach the mid to lower 30s but still remain above freezing across much of the northern panhandles. The southern panhandles will be a bit warmer in the upper 30s to low 40s. Currently the lower side of that estimate seems to be the most likely scenario. Otherwise this system will keep cooler air over the panhandles with highs remaining in the 50s to 60s.
625 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024 - Windy again on Friday, continued cooler than normal.
922 PM EDT Thu Apr 18 2024 High pressure over the Gulf of Maine will slowly track out to sea on Friday. Meanwhile, low pressure north of the Great Lakes will slowly track east and will drag a cold front across the region Friday and Friday night. The front becomes stationary south of the Mid-Atlantic through the weekend as high pressure builds in from the north.
700 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024 - Frost/Freeze tonight as temperatures fall into the low 30s. The main concern over the next 72 hours will be falling temperatures overnight which could lead to frost/freeze concerns, as our abnormal winter with warmer conditions alongside the rain we received earlier in the week has led to some susceptible vegetation.
142 AM EDT Fri Apr 19 2024 High pressure over the Gulf of Maine will slowly track out to sea on Friday. Meanwhile, low pressure north of the Great Lakes will slowly track east and will drag a cold front across the region Friday and Friday night. The front becomes stationary south of the Mid-Atlantic through the weekend as high pressure builds in from the north.
1203 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024 - Cool with temperatures well below normal through the first part of the weekend, then warmer. A split flow regime aloft will have some phasing of upper level jet features with broad ascent over the High Plains through Saturday. At the same time short waves rotating around an expansive closed low over central Canada will keep persistent mid level FGEN forcing, deformation, and weak isentropic lift in an environment with modest low level moisture.
352 AM EDT Fri Apr 19 2024 High pressure over the area today will weaken as a cold front approaches the area from the west by tonight. The cold front moves through the area tonight and into early Saturday, followed by a secondary dry cold frontal passage Saturday afternoon. High pressure builds in for the beginning of the week. High pressure returns to end the week. Mainly dry conditions are expected for much of the day today with the chance of showers increasing from west to east late into the afternoon and into the evening with the approach of the cold front. A secondary cold front moves through during the afternoon and evening Saturday and while it is expected to be a dry passage, a stray shower can't be ruled out.
1229 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024 - Windy again on Friday, continued cooler than normal.
I trough extending westward from the Great Lakes region still has us under a cooler air mass today. Also, while the upper level trough remains over our region, it is filling in today as we transition to a ridge of high pressure for Saturday. That means we can look forward to a cooler than average day today with a chilly east wind, but, there will be fewer if any snow showers today. Temperatures bump up quickly under mostly sunny skies for Saturday as an upper level ridge takes over, but just for a day.
Convection along the southern sections of the front is already beginning to to dissipate and will continue to do so as it moves into even more of an unfavorable environment dominated by the Gulf ridge and lacking in deep moisture. As temperatures warm into the lower to mid 80s, some isolated to scattered thunderstorms will develop. Scattered showers and storms will linger into the evening hours due to the presence of a warm and unstable air mass south of the cold front, but dissipate in coverage after Midnight. A lull in the rain late Friday night through Saturday morning as the air mass stabilizes north of the cold front. An elevated warm front will bring scattered showers and a few elevated storms to central Alabama Saturday afternoon.
1239 AM EDT Fri Apr 19 2024 High pressure crosses the region overnight into Friday.
(Today through Saturday Night) A cold front will continue to push through the state to begin the period bringing the chance for showers and thunderstorms through the early morning hours Friday. An upper level trough will dive down from the Central Plains Saturday bringing an additional round of widespread rain to the state.
132 AM EDT Fri Apr 19 2024 Passing cold front brings showers and storms through late this afternoon of evening. Cooler and drier this weekend. Overall, dry today, with high pressure surface and aloft temporarily in control. Showers ad storms will return early Friday with the approach of a low and associated cold front. Saturday looks to be cool and dry with departing clouds behind the cold front. The lowlands will see temperatures in the low to mid 60s, while the mountains will stay in the 40s and 50s.
1102 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024 (This evening through Friday) As of 2:30 PM, the cold front extended from Holdenville to Ardmore and breezy north winds with gusts of 35 to 45 mph have been observed behind the boundary. A cooler airmass has entered much of Oklahoma with coolest temperatures currently in the mid 50's across parts of northern and west-central Oklahoma. Winds gradually decrease overnight, and though winds will be light by dawn on Friday, wind chills could drop into the low 30's.
1238 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024 - Sub-freezing temperatures expected to return to portions of the forecast area tonight, mainly north of the tri-cities.
320 AM EDT Fri Apr 19 2024 High pressure crosses the region today.
Moisture then increases for Friday and Saturday as a cold front moves into the area.
- Frost and freezing overnight lows are expected through the weekend as temperatures dip into the 20s across portions of the area. A large upper level low will lumber to the east through the short term. This low will aide in bringing colder temperatures into the area today. This low will also bring windy conditions to the area with gusts approaching 30kts this afternoon. While there is some uncertainty about frost development due to the winds tonight, lows will be near freezing so additoinal frost and freeze products are likely needed. H92 temps barely get above freezing. The HRRR depicts some showers underneath the cyclonic flow of the upper level low. Saturday night looks like the coldest for the area with lows at or below freezing across most of the area.
244 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024 - Dry and much cooler conditions can be expected today through the weekend.
Scattered snow flurries continue to be observed across portions of the area, as well as much cooler temperatures in the low 30s. The low that never ends is still spinning Canada. As a result, expect more widespread snow showers tomorrow afternoon, with visibility reductions becoming expected thanks to cooler 925mb temperatures. Freezing temperatures will return Friday night as the low finally begins to kick out of the region and cold air surges in.
With the lighter winds and lesser CAA, highs are forecast a few degrees warmer into the lower 60s, warmest where there are lesser clouds along/south of I-70.
As we progress throughout the day, we will need to be aware of two focus areas: the remnant outflow boundary from the nocturnal storms and additional storms that could form along the cold front pushing through the Tennessee Valley this afternoon. The greater chances will be as the true cold front pushes through the TN Valley this afternoon, which will align with peak diurnal heating. As a result, there will be a window from roughly 10 AM to 4 PM when surface-based instability aligns with the potential for additional convection initiation along the cold front. High temperatures today peak in the low to mid 70s for northwest AL where showers and storms start sooner, while portions of northeast AL may reach 80 with some periods of sun peeking through an otherwise overcast sky.
1244 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024 (This evening through Friday) Cold front continues to move southward across the area this afternoon. Much cooler tonight behind the front, with lows dipping into the upper 40s north of I-20 and the 50s across most of the rest of west central Texas. Friday will be much cooler compared to today, with highs in the 60s and 70s.
Expecting per continued push southeastward of surface cold front into deep south, influences of southern Canadian high pressure influences building southeastward into the central plains, for dry conditions to prevail tonight through Saturday afternoon with developing zonal flow aloft ushering in additional cloudiness at times.
Lows through Saturday night fall near to below freezing. Mixing down the cooler air in addition to the widespread diurnally driven cumulus clouds are keeping temperatures in the mid 40s to lower 50s. TOMORROW AND SATURDAY: Similar set up for Friday and Saturday with upper low tracking east across southern Canada, keeping us in a west to northwest flow regime. Lows again near/below freezing with potential headlines needed, although winds again may be a spoilsport for frost potential (leading to either freeze conditions or nothing).
Sea breezes along both the Atlantic and Gulf coast will help moderate the heat some each afternoon, but high temperatures could still reach the upper 80s and even the lower 90s each day, especially over the interior/southwest FL. Temperatures along the immediate coasts will remain in the low-mid 80s.
Cold front is located across central OK into central MO at this time with a much cooler air mass behind it. Boundary will move through the metro area around midnight which is a little slower than previous models were showing with gusty northwest winds and much cooler air advecting in as it does. Widespread precipitation develops west to east across the state as a wave develops on the aforementioned boundary with the highest POPS across the south.
215 AM EDT Fri Apr 19 2024 Passing cold front brings showers and storms through late this afternoon of evening. Cooler and drier this weekend, the slowly warming into mid-week. Overall, dry today, with high pressure surface and aloft temporarily in control. Showers ad storms will return early Friday with the approach of a low and associated cold front.
340 AM EDT Fri Apr 19 2024 A cold front will move east through the area this morning, bringing an end to the precipitation threat once it passes by. High pressure will build east into the Ohio Valley tonight into Saturday.
As we head through the day, a cold front will move south across the state, eventually stalling just to the north of the CWA. The aforementioned cold front will begin to move south on Saturday.
A ridge will move over the Pacific Northwest Friday night and early Saturday before moving eastward later Saturday into Saturday night.
1209 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024 (Rest of today through Friday) We started off cloudy this morning, but the clouds have been breaking up and we expect temps to take off into the low to mid 80s this afternoon. Later this evening, another batch of thunderstorms in the form of a weakening QLCS will come from the west ahead of a cold front. We will be left with mostly cloudy and cooler conditions as a north breeze drops temps back to normal or a little cooler than normal.
1213 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024 (The rest of tonight) Cold front has almost cleared the CWA as of 9 PM with a much cooler airmass spreading over the area.
Temperatures have trended a bit warmer compared to last night, so frost and freeze concerns have diminished west of the Cascades.
1229 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024 - Winds subside this evening with cooler temperatures lingering through this weekend.
High temperatures will range from the lower 50s where clouds persist in the north to the lower 60s to the south.
Current conditions/Today: An upper level low was moving into central Ontario this morning.
158 AM EDT Fri Apr 19 2024 A low pressure system moves through the region, bringing showers and thunderstorms during the overnight hours into Friday.
- Much cooler temperatures are expected over the weekend with a threat for frost and sub-freezing temperatures, particularly on Saturday night outside of Chicago.
Surface analysis depicts high pressure over the western Atlantic, extending westward across the Florida peninsula into the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Aloft, deep ridging remains in place over the Gulf, and continues to dominate the weather regime across South Florida and the Keys. Typical late dry season weather will prevail today and through the weekend, as the lower to mid level ridge over the Gulf remains in control.
(Today and tonight) In the wake of yesterday and early last night's cold frontal passage, temperatures will be much cooler today with considerable cloudiness and northeast winds. Numerical guidance differs with the highs today by 10-14 degrees across much of our area. Leaning toward the cooler side of guidance and going with highs in the lower to mid 60s across the Big Country, 65-70 in our central counties, and in the lower to mid 70s for the southern part of our area. Cloud cover will be widespread tonight and overnight lows are expected to range from the upper 40s to lower 50s in the Big Country, to the lower 60s south of I-10 and in our far southeastern counties.
NBM guidance is much higher than what the high-res models would support especially for locations south of the Hill Country.
312 AM EDT Fri Apr 19 2024 * Much cooler weather this weekend.
Short wave trough, vort lobe, extends WSW into southern Saskatchewan at 07z. This vort lobe/short wave trough will move into the Red River valley this aftn.
Light winds and mostly clear skies will allow for another cold morning with lows in the 20s and 30s, including pockets of sub-freezing temps in the Treasure Valley.
1136 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024 (This evening through Friday Night) A cold front is currently making it's way through north/north central Texas this afternoon. Those planning strenuous outdoor activities should be mindful of this early season heat, as the human body needs time acclimate to these warmer conditions.
A warming trend is expected over the weekend as weak ridging builds in aloft.
101 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024 The mid-evening sfc analysis indicates that our cold front has entered Nrn and Wrn McCurtain County OK, tailing SW to near PRX, TRL, and ACT as of 0230Z. The frontal sfc is expected to become more shallow as it seeps through the higher terrain of the Ouachitas overnight, with any cold advection minimal as it nears the I-20 corridor of extreme Ern TX/NW LA by daybreak.
Surface ridging will control the weather pattern through the weekend, keeping things dry and cool.
- Freezing temperatures possible tonight north and west but low potential for frost.
- Temperatures drop to near/below freezing again tonight. Much of Minnesota and western Wisconsin has started to dance along the metaphorical line of freezing temps as the mid-level clouds continue to scatter out across the area. Any susceptible vegetation will be at risk again tonight with temperatures expected to be 1-3 degrees cooler than what we see this morning.
1155 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024 (This evening through Friday night) A fairly broad upper level trough pushing south out of Canada will continue to expand across the High Plains to upper Mississippi River Valley the rest of this afternoon and evening. A cold front associated with this trough is moving southeast through OK, TX, and AR.
With the relative lack of forcing across our region today, convection will remain hard to come by aside from just some very isolated showers and perhaps a stray thunderstorm as the cold front continues its slow but steady progression SE throughout the day. The speed of the front could be problematic in terms of the high temperature forecast for today, resulting in quite a spread from the mid and upper 60s NW to the lower and mid 80s SE. Temperatures will be noticeably cooler following fropa with little movement expected throughout the day as highs only manage the mid and upper 50s north into the lower 60s along I-20 and slightly warmer farther south.
This is in response to 500mb vorticity moving through the area ahead of a cold front located back across west TN. This coincides with when the cold front will be moving through the area. The shear in the lowest levels is very weak today, thus removing the threat of tornadoes.
1155 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024 (This afternoon through Friday night) A cold front is ahead of schedule and currently moving through the Permian Basin putting an abrupt halt to daytime heating. The low clouds will prevent much diurnal variation in temperatures Friday suggesting MAV guidance is too optimistic. By contrast the MET is showing much cooler temperatures, which may occur, but there is still a great deal of uncertainty in how cool the airmass is so stayed close to the NBM guidance which is about an even split between the GFS and NAM.
1221 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024 - Frost/Freeze tonight as temperatures fall into the low 30s. The main concern over the next 72 hours will be falling temperatures overnight which could lead to frost/freeze concerns, as our abnormal winter with warmer conditions alongside the rain we received earlier in the week has led to some susceptible vegetation.