Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1230 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024 (Today and tonight) The leading edge of height falls was already overspreading our area early this morning ahead of a potent upper low becoming negatively tilted over the Four Corners. Otherwise, strong heating within the LL thermal ridge may be enough to temporarily breach the cap in the far southeast Texas Panhandle, but any storms here should quickly exit our area within 35+ knots of steering flow. By late afternoon, a Pacific front will glide E-SE across our northwest zones before sweeping out of the Rolling Plains after midnight ahead of lighter breezes and much cooler lows in the 40s and 50s.
207 PM MDT Mon May 6 2024 -Deep low pressure system will bring numerous hazards through Tuesday. Vigorous low pressure system deepening and closing off across the region this afternoon. The dry trough has already shifted across most of the area with lingering thunderstorms and showers along the trough from far NW SD through scentral SD. Temps will drop across the higher elevations of the BH with rain changing to snow and becoming quite heavy overnight. The next round of rain will push into the region Tue night-Thur as the upper low moves slowly southeast across the region. There will also be some snow once again in the higher elevations of the Black Hills, mainly Tue night.
The airmass is expected to become more unstable as we move into the evening as will the deep layer shear as the low level jet increases. The thunderstorms are expected to exit the region by Tuesday mid-morning, (Tuesday through Monday) Tuesday is expected to be a relatively quiet day weather-wise across eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas as weak high pressure prevails.
131 PM PDT Mon May 6 2024 Seasonably cooler weather and breezy winds will be in place through mid-week before temperatures quickly rebound to above average over the weekend.
244 PM EDT Mon May 6 2024 High pressure will build across the region providing fair and dry weather through Tuesday.
KEY MESSAGES: -Warm front will bring the next risk for showers and storms late Tuesday and Tuesday night.
For tomorrow, a building subtropical ridge from the SW Gulf sets the stage for 3-day period of hot weather characterized by daily inland high temperatures in the upper 80s/low 90s. Strong subsidence from this ridge should suppress most if not all convection.
The rich low-level moisture will also yield high amounts of buoyancy in the lower levels, an essential ingredient for tornadoes. Low-level shear is also impressive, with 0-1km SRH increasing to 300-400 m2/s2 by late afternoon-early evening as the low-level jet increases. This higher-end threat is most probable between roughly 4-10pm, and again from southern KS, south through Oklahoma.
No major changes made to the forecast as a very dynamic upper trough axis is observed rotating through the western high plains, progged to eject eastward by late afternoon into the evening hours. Foci for initation lies along a north to south oriented dryline boundary with a trailing cold front towards far western Kansas. Increasing low level moisture ahead of the boundary near a pseudo warm front is also of note as MLCAPE values are quickly increasing above 2000 J/KG southwest of ICT. Severe storms along with the cold front exit the region by 06Z this evening, bringing calmer and drier weather to the CWA from Tuesday onward.
102 PM PDT Mon May 6 2024 Dry and warmer, with gusty winds from the west over the mountains and into the deserts today and Tuesday.
135 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024 Shower and thunderstorm chances are expected to become isolated into this afternoon as an upper-level disturbance moves away from the Lower Mississippi Valley.
204 PM EDT Mon May 6 2024 A cold front will slowly move through the region today sweeping away the clouds, showers and any fog. High pressure builds into the region but only for a short stay Tuesday. A few showers have popped up in the Finger Lakes and Oneida County ahead of a slow moving cold front. Tonight drier air comes in with high pressure from the northwest. Lows in the low and mid 40s CNY to around 50 in the Wyoming Valley of NEPA. The high pressure system moves into eastern NY Tuesday.
A trough however is apparent over East Texas on water vapor satellite imagery, and this has helped at least a few isolated storms develop to the west. Into tomorrow, a trough swinging across the Plains is expected to shift a plume of better instability into our area, and showers and thunderstorms are expected mainly in eastern Mississippi during the afternoon/evening hours.
A low pressure system moving away to our east is enhancing the pressure gradient in s-central Idaho. The precip associated with the exiting low has ended, but an upper trough to our west will bring a round of showers later today through tonight. MVFR-LIFR showers and thunderstorms form along a cold front this afternoon, around 21Z/Mon KBKE KBNO, reaching KONO KEUL KBOI 01-02Z/Tue and KTWF KJER around 04-05Z/Tue.
However, most of the moisture will be at the lower levels with dry air aloft and a strong cap building. Warmer temperatures are in store for tomorrow, with highs ranging from the mid 80s along the coast to near 100 degrees over portions of the Rio Grande Plains and Brush Country. A Coastal Flood Advisory and a High risk of rip currents has been issued for the high tide cycle tonight along the Gulf-facing beaches of the Middle Texas Coast. Winds are forecast to remain below 15 knots offshore out of the southeast, but the high swells and periods could lead to minor coastal flooding and an increase risk of rip currents along area beaches, mainly south of Port Aransas.
313 PM EDT Mon May 6 2024 - Potential for strong/severe storms Tuesday - Wet and Cool Weather for the end of the week - Potential for strong/severe storms Tuesday Severe storms are just developing over the Plains in response to strong dynamics being produced by low pressure over the northern Plains along a warm/occluded frontal band. An approaching strong short wave that's ejected out of the Plains upper low will support convective redevelopment. Dewpoints surge into the lower 60s behind the front.
Ridging returns over the weekend with warmer temperatures expected. The low pressure system that brought last night's weather continues to push away from Arizona this afternoon as it makes its way into the Northern Plains states. While yesterday's low continues to wobble around the northern plains states over the next few days, a longwave trough settles in across much of the west through the end of this week and early part of the weekend. Another wave feature and associated cold front will rotate through the long wave trough Tuesday which will tighten pressure gradients across Arizona.
810 PM EDT Mon May 6 2024 - Potential for strong/severe storms Tuesday - Wet and Cool Weather for the end of the week - Potential for strong/severe storms Tuesday Severe storms are just developing over the Plains in response to strong dynamics being produced by low pressure over the northern Plains along a warm/occluded frontal band. An approaching strong short wave that's ejected out of the Plains upper low will support convective redevelopment. Dewpoints surge into the lower 60s behind the front.
Wind fields will also be strong, with large, curved hodographs seen in model soundings across much of the area, especially towards and after 00z as the low level jet ramps up. With high confidence that the necessary ingredients will be there, the biggest question mark remaining is storm coverage and how far south storms will develop as the greatest forcing from the trough passes largely to our north, i.
528 PM MDT Mon May 6 2024 -Deep low pressure system will bring numerous hazards through Tuesday. Vigorous low pressure system deepening and closing off across the region this afternoon. The dry trough has already shifted across most of the area with lingering thunderstorms and showers along the trough from far NW SD through scentral SD. Temps will drop across the higher elevations of the BH with rain changing to snow and becoming quite heavy overnight. The next round of rain will push into the region Tue night-Thur as the upper low moves slowly southeast across the region. There will also be some snow once again in the higher elevations of the Black Hills, mainly Tue night.
After a cool and damp period, trending warmer for the work week, with strong north winds for mid-week, especially along the coast and over the water.
622 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024 (This evening through Tuesday) The upper closed low will continue to spin over the Northern Plains tonight with 80 to 100 knot 250mb winds and 50 to 70 knot 500mb westerlies overhead. The Pacific front will be east of the forecast area by this evening with a weak surface cold front passing south through the area overnight. Tomorrow, the nearly stationary upper low will continue to spin over the Northern Plains.
254 PM PDT Mon May 6 2024 Expect cool, windy, and showery conditions for the start of the work week as a trough of low pressure remains over the Inland NW. Then a ridge of high pressure builds into the region, giving way to warmer and drier weather by midweek that continues into the weekend. Strongest winds will again be in the East slopes of the Cascades reaching into the low 40 MPH range. Winds will calm late Tuesday as the cold front exits.
- Hail around 2 inches and winds over 70 mph will be the main concern with the highest tornado threat across south central Kansas - Critical Fire weather conditions are expected west of highway 283 this afternoon and again tomorrow afternoon - A mainly dry weather pattern will develop Monday evening and persist for several days. A dryline has set up across western Kansas with a cold front overtaking this feature this afternoon. Low level Helicity will be the highest across south central Kansas late this afternoon into this evening. This is where the highest chance of a tornado to form.
As of 8 PM, the cold front is advancing across southeast Oregon and is expected to reach the Idaho/Nevada border by 9 PM MDT. Showers will persist across much of the region late tonight through Tuesday due to the presence of an upper-level trough over central Idaho. MVFR-IFR showers and isolated thunderstorms persist along a cold front this evening.
Highs are likely to range from the low to mid 80s across the Hill Country, along the I-35 corridor and Coastal Plains. Overnight lows forecast ranges from the upper 60s over a few locations across the Hill Country with the rest of the local area in the low to mid 70s. This will allow for temperatures to reach the upper 80s to upper 90s across those areas while areas along and east of I-35 and Coastal Plains stay in the low 90s.
416 PM PDT Mon May 6 2024 Expect cool, windy, and showery conditions for the start of the work week as a trough of low pressure remains over the Inland NW. Then a ridge of high pressure builds into the region, giving way to warmer and drier weather by midweek that continues into the weekend. Strongest winds will again be in the East slopes of the Cascades reaching into the low 40 MPH range. Winds will calm late Tuesday as the cold front exits.
1235 AM EDT Tue May 7 2024 High pressure will then build over the area from the northwest late tonight into Tuesday.
1055 PM MDT Mon May 6 2024 -Deep low pressure system will bring numerous hazards through Tuesday. Vigorous low pressure system deepening and closing off across the region this afternoon. The dry trough has already shifted across most of the area with lingering thunderstorms and showers along the trough from far NW SD through scentral SD. Temps will drop across the higher elevations of the BH with rain changing to snow and becoming quite heavy overnight. The next round of rain will push into the region Tue night-Thur as the upper low moves slowly southeast across the region. There will also be some snow once again in the higher elevations of the Black Hills, mainly Tue night. Areas of showers (snow in the higher elevations of the Black Hills and NE WY) will continue through the overnight hours.
08Z analysis shows the strong low pressure system to be currently centered over northwestern South Dakota with numerous rain showers wrapping around the west side of the low, over northeastern Wyoming and western South Dakota, with snow, heavy in some places, over the higher elevations of the Black Hills. Strong and gusty northwest winds are occurring due to the tight surface pressure gradient surrounding the low pressure system. With 850mb winds currently 55-65kts, surface wind gusts of 60 mph or more are occurring, especially over the higher elevations of the Black Hills and some downslope regions near the eastern foothills.
1011 PM PDT Mon May 6 2024 Expect cool, windy, and showery conditions for the start of the work week as a trough of low pressure remains over the Inland NW. Then a ridge of high pressure builds into the region, giving way to warmer and drier weather by midweek that continues into the weekend. Strongest winds will again be in the East slopes of the Cascades reaching into the low 40 MPH range. Winds will calm late Tuesday as the cold front exits.
barely 100-250 j/kg and no sfc heating is anticipated with aftn temps in the low 60s. With upper low sufficiently far enough west and colder 500 mb temps wrapping around the system and more into Nebraska thinking is that some t-storms will form in a narrow axis from near DVL-GFK-BJI area mid aftn and move north, but lack of instability, lack of cold air aloft, will prevent much development.
(The rest of tonight) Isolated convection forming ahead of the main squall line will pose the highest risk for strong tornadoes over the next few hours. (Tuesday through Monday) Tuesday is expected to be a relatively quiet day weather-wise across eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas as weak high pressure prevails.
344 AM CDT Tue May 7 2024 - Highs today in the low 70s with a chance (15-25%) for showers this evening across southeastern portions of the area.
A dryline has set up across western Kansas with a cold front overtaking this feature this afternoon. Low level Helicity will be the highest across south central Kansas late this afternoon into this evening. This is where the highest chance of a tornado to form.
Under sunny afternoon skies, we'll see nearly a repeater of yesterdays slightly warmer than average temperatures although much less humid with a drier air mass in place. It will feel slightly cooler tonight across our northern and western Oklahoma tonight with lows in the 50s.
North winds behind the trough/front will be quite light for western KS normals, and look to average about 10-13 mph through the overnight.
Highs this afternoon will be in the mid to upper 80s across our eastern counties and the Big Country, to the low to mid 90s elsewhere.
200 AM EDT Tue May 7 2024 High pressure builds into the area today along with warm daytime temperatures.
Temperatures are hovering in the upper 70s to near 80, with dewpoints in the lower 70s, and winds on land from the east to southeast at 10 to 15 mph. Surface analysis depicts high pressure centered over the western Atlantic, with the Keys remaining in moderate ESE flow along the southwestern flank of this high. Aloft, mid-level ridging over the Gulf of Mexico continues to dominate our local weather regime. Mostly clear, warm and mainly dry weather will prevail through the rest of the work week, as mid level ridging persists over the Gulf of Mexico.
GOES East satellite imagery indicates deep cold cloud tops, while over our region more benign mean ridging/slightly above climatological norms in moist profiles exists across the Gulf Coast (i. A trough however is apparent over East Texas on water vapor satellite imagery, and this has helped at least a few isolated storms develop to the west. Into tomorrow, a trough swinging across the Plains is expected to shift a plume of better instability into our area, and showers and thunderstorms are expected mainly in eastern Mississippi during the afternoon/evening hours.
1245 AM CDT Tue May 7 2024 (The rest of tonight) Isolated convection forming ahead of the main squall line will pose the highest risk for strong tornadoes over the next few hours. (Tuesday through Monday) Tuesday is expected to be a relatively quiet day weather-wise across eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas as weak high pressure prevails.
920 PM PDT Mon May 6 2024 Dry with temperatures similar to a few degrees warmer than Monday are expected Tuesday.
1238 AM CDT Tue May 7 2024 (This evening through Tuesday) The upper closed low will continue to spin over the Northern Plains tonight with 80 to 100 knot 250mb winds and 50 to 70 knot 500mb westerlies overhead. The Pacific front will be east of the forecast area by this evening with a weak surface cold front passing south through the area overnight. Tomorrow, the nearly stationary upper low will continue to spin over the Northern Plains.
(Today and tonight) A stacked cyclone will loiter over the western Dakotas today while our area sits under cyclonic westerly flow. NBM struggled with highs yesterday and appears to be suffering the same bias today, so opted for its warmer 75th percentile which is closer to MOS. Cyclogenesis in southeast CO meanwhile will depart for northern OK by daybreak and in the process drag a weak cold front into our northern zones after midnight.
Cooler with lows in the upper 40s to lower 50s. Wednesday: Low pressure races out of the southern Plains and into the OH Valley. Our attention then turns to an upper low that will drop southeast out of the Dakotas into northwest IA.
635 AM CDT Tue May 7 2024 (Today through Wednesday) Key Messages: â¶ There's a moderate to major risk for heat related illness Tuesday and Wednesday â¶ There's a Moderate Risk for Rip currents through Wednesday morning The region will be under a zonal flow aloft with a mid-level low pressure system over the northern Plains and a mid-level high over western Mexico. WAA in the lower to mid levels will combine with humid conditions near the surface resulting in a Moderate to a Major risk of heat related impacts across the region Tuesday and Wednesday, According to the NWS Heat Risk tool. Have opted to let the Coastal Flood Advisory and the High Rip Current Risk to expire this morning as swell heights/periods have decreased to around 3 ft and 7 seconds respectively.
An upper level trough will exit the region today and a ridge of high pressure aloft will begin to build into the area on Wednesday. The upper ridge will strengthen toward the end of the week as thermally induced low pressure near the surface expands northward into the area.
Expansive high pressure across the western North Atlantic is maintaining moderate east to southeast breezes across the forecast area this morning. This persistent east southeasterly flow has brought in dew points in the lower to almost mid 70s, and temperatures in the lower to mid 80s already today.
This aligns pretty good with pops and will see the higher precip chances gradually lift north this morning. barely 100-250 j/kg and no sfc heating is anticipated with aftn temps in the low 60s. With upper low sufficiently far enough west and colder 500 mb temps wrapping around the system and more into Nebraska thinking is that some t-storms will form in a narrow axis from near DVL-GFK-BJI area mid aftn and move north, but lack of instability, lack of cold air aloft, will prevent much development.
Mesoscale: A 40-60 kt LLJ will shift east into the southwestern CWA by sunrise Wednesday morning as a warm front lifts into the area. The warm front will shift north through the area with a cold front then pushing in from the west in the afternoon and evening. Models show instability increasing very quickly behind the warm front as moisture surges into the area and steep mid-level lapse rates evolve. Greatest concerns with these would be along the warm front where a tornado threat would be higher. Additional storms may form along the cold front in the afternoon and evening, with a very large hail risk.
The RAP/NAM is showing MLCAPES climbing into the 2000-3000 J/kg range over the southeastern half of the CWA late this morning and afternoon ahead of the cold front with deep layer shear of 50 knots. This will be conducive for supercells both along the warm front and the cold front and in the open warm sector. Forecast soundings tomorrow afternoon are showing large clockwise curvature in the low layers which will enhance the potential for tornadoes including the potential for a few strong ones.
634 AM EDT Tue May 7 2024 High pressure builds into the area today along with warm daytime temperatures. Weak high pressure settles over the area today with light winds, mostly sunny skies and temperatures mainly in the 70s. Our stretch of warm and fair weather ends tonight as low pressure approaches from the west and a warm front sharpens up to our south.
339 AM PDT Tue May 7 2024 Dry and warmer today with gusty southwest to west winds for the mountains and deserts for this afternoon and evening. Cooler for the deserts on Wednesday and warmer for the valleys to the coast with weak offshore flow and with locally gusty north winds.
728 AM EDT Tue May 7 2024 (Today through Wednesday) High pressure continues to dominate the benign and warm weather pattern across South Florida. On Wednesday, drier air moves in at the mid-levels as high pressure builds overhead leading to even lower rain chances for Wednesday afternoon. High temperatures on Tuesday and Wednesday will rise into the mid 80s across the east coast metro areas, and into the lower 90s across interior portions of Southwest Florida.
231 AM PDT Tue May 7 2024 Near to below freezing low temperatures are anticipated tonight and going into Wednesday morning following breezy winds generally out of the north this afternoon and evening. The latest RAP analysis shows the CWA with a northwesterly upper air flow being underneath the western portion of a negatively tilted upper air trough early this morning. Ensemble guidance forecasts an upper air low over the Northern Plains region reorienting the trough causing the CWA's upper air flow to turn north-northwesterly during the night. This looks to be another night to make sure sensitive vegetation is protected with some areas anticipated to be near to below freezing.
Upper low over western South Dakota is expected to remain stationary for the next 24 hours. Counter-clockwise flow around the low support unidirectional flow from the southwest across the region. HRRR shows the potential for elevated convection Wednesday morning east of I-35, and the potential for a more surface based storm in the late afternoon hours developing immediately ahead of cold front moving across Iowa Wednesday afternoon.
A building expansive Pacific ridge of high pressure will bring quickly warming temperatures and strengthening N to NE winds. With increasing subsidence from building high pressure, and clearer skies, more frost development can be expected overnight. The expansive Pacific ridge will begin quickly amplifying today, and this strengthening will continue through late in the week. Outside of the immediate coast, temperatures will be noticeably warmer today for most.
626 AM CDT Tue May 7 2024 - Highs today in the low 70s with a chance (15-25%) for showers this evening across southeastern portions of the area.
with the latest guidance suggesting the highest probability for damaging winds, large hail, and tornadoes focusing along/south of the I-70 corridor. It now appears low pressure will track eastward out of the Plains along the boundary generally along/near the I-70 corridor. With the strongest instability/shear focused south of the front, the highest probabilities for severe weather will focus from the Ozarks northeastward into the Ohio River Valley. Barnes Once the low tracks into Indiana Wednesday night, the severe potential will come to an end and a much cooler/more stable airmass will arrive by the end of the week.