Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
(This evening through Wednesday) The region will remain situated between upper-level ridging to our east, and a weak trough to our west. However, the ridge will continue to break down over the course of this afternoon, allowing for the trough to become the dominant feature. This will be due to a "lack" of moisture, as the ridge to our east continues to degrade. Given the increased cloud cover and rain chances, afternoon highs tomorrow will generally range in the low-90s, with overnight lows tonight and tomorrow ranging in the low-70s.
A well-defined short wave trough axis will traverse the area this afternoon and evening, with numerous showers and storms likely developing upstream across IL. Isolated to widely scattered storms will be a possibility again during the late afternoon and early evening hours on Wednesday with a subtle ripple in the flow / weak vort max on the back side of the aforementioned trough.
Frontal boundary near Ohio River vcnty, will largely remain stationary today, before lifting back northwards Wednesday, as low pressure slowly nudges further north and east into the Great Lakes region. Overall severe threat still looks to be on the low end during this period, but plenty of instability, and a slight uptick in shear could warrant an isolated strong to severe storm.
153 PM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025 - High pressure and quiet weather mid week with near average temperatures.
Overnight, mid-level clouds will linger overhead as we remain under the influence of general troughiness and the weak frontal boundary.
Expect continued isolated development of showers and thunderstorms across the lower Scioto Valley into portions of northern Kentucky into the afternoon hours.
KBYX radar detects a few showers with a thunderstorm here and there bubbling along old outflow boundaries in the Straits of Florida and in the Gulf waters west of the Lower Keys. 6 inches) over the keys between a slug of tropical moisture in the Gulf and moisture associated with the incoming inverted trough churning through the east end of The Bahamas. Despite all of these factors working against rainfall, we still are opting to sit on the higher side of guidance with slight rain chances just below normal for this time of year. As the previously mentioned inverted trough continues to shift west, rain chances will gradually increase through tonight and into tomorrow.
We issued a flood watch starting 18Z today for a portion of the Lower Susquehanna Valley in coordination with WFO LWX. Min temps will be a bit cooler than last night, with fog likely forming in the valleys through the predawn hours Wednesday.
A weak cold front crosses the area this afternoon and evening providing the forcing for showers and storms.
110 PM EDT Tue Jul 8 2025 A cold front will move south today with high pressure building in from the north. High pressure remains over the area through Wednesday. A trough of low pressure will cross the area through the end of the week. Overcast skies remain across the southern half of the forecast area, keeping temperatures on the cooler side and so max temps for this area were lowered slightly with this update, along with an adjustment to the sky forecast to better account for the slow front progression as it exits off the coast. Inverted trof looks to set up over western zones tomorrow afternoon with slight chance for showers and tstms over the very far west. The upper level trof over the Great Lakes should slowly start to move E.
This activity, if it develops, likely wanes by sunrise and as a broad upper level trough passes by the region well to our north, slightly elevated westerly flow should prevail over the region. Widely scattered showers and storms are expected again on Wednesday, but with the stronger westerly flow, the highest probabilities for coverage will be along the eastern portions of the forecast area with more scattered activity expected along the Panhandle and into southeast Alabama.
1145 AM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025 - Isolated Thunderstorms late this afternoon with dangerous lightning and localized flooding - Warmer temperatures by the latter part of the week.
1103 AM MDT Tue Jul 8 2025 - Much warmer today with the possibility of a few storms over the Black Hills.
The lowest elevations of the Bighorn and Wind River Basins have a 40-70 percent chance of 100 degree highs Wednesday.
Temperatures will trend a bit cooler or around seasonal norms, into the weekend. A mid-level trough is expected to traverse the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley tomorrow. For the days ahead, ridging will be suppressed to the south with troughing locked to the north.
132 PM EDT Tue Jul 8 2025 A slow moving front will continue to push across the region, bringing cooler temperatures and additional changes for showers today. Temperatures will be cooler compared to previous days, with high temperatures generally climbing into the upper 70s and lower 80s.
Min temps will be a bit cooler than last night, with fog likely forming in the valleys through the predawn hours Wednesday.
601 PM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025 -An upper level low and deep moisture will support increased diurnal convection through tomorrow with some locally torrential downpours possible.
Wednesday will offer a rinse and repeat of the previous two days as we remain sandwiched between troughing to our NNE and ridging to our SSE. The numerous afternoon storms will limit our highs to the low 90s, making for an ever so slightly cooler afternoon.
Daytime high temperatures will be in the low 90s over inland southeast Georgia with temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s along the coast and northeast Florida. Overnight lows will dip into the low to mid 70s with temperatures staying slightly warmer along the coast.
622 PM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025 Updated at 621 PM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025 - A few showers and thunderstorms (10-30 percent chance) are expected this afternoon and evening, with the best chance across southeast New Mexico and the higher terrain areas of west Texas. (This afternoon through Wednesday night) A ridge of high pressure builds over northwestern Mexico and the Desert Southwest to start off the short term period.
621 PM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025 - High pressure and quiet weather mid week with near average temperatures.
649 PM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025 The upper ridge over the southeast states will slowly breakdown through midweek as the base of an upper trough situated just west of the Mississippi River shifts eastward over our region. The upper trough then gradually weakens and lifts northward the latter half of the week, followed by a large upper high pressure area building across the entire southeast CONUS over the weekend.
Temperatures are on track to stay in the lower 80s outside of showers.
The weak Bermuda ridge axis will set up directly over the C FL Peninsula into the E Central Gulf mid to late week with diurnal seabreeze storms daily with highest PoPs in S and interior zones. This looks to be the last day of southwesterly flow as the ridge will be shifting north and looks to remain overhead through the weekend. Ridge will be shifting overhead tonight.
658 PM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025 An upper level trough over the Gulf is approaching the TX coast. The upper level trough will continue to move into TX Wednesday bringing another round of showers and thunderstorms across the Coastal Plains and I-35 to the Hill Country.
Temperatures will be around 5-10 degrees cooler on Wednesday afternoon.
617 PM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025 (This evening through Wednesday) The region will remain situated between upper-level ridging to our east, and a weak trough to our west. However, the ridge will continue to break down over the course of this afternoon, allowing for the trough to become the dominant feature. This will be due to a "lack" of moisture, as the ridge to our east continues to degrade. Given the increased cloud cover and rain chances, afternoon highs tomorrow will generally range in the low-90s, with overnight lows tonight and tomorrow ranging in the low-70s.
1043 PM EDT Tue Jul 8 2025 A weak cold front crosses the area this afternoon and evening providing the forcing for showers and storms.
An upper trough shifting eastward into the Ohio Valley this afternoon will enhance effective bulk shear to around 20kts, allowing for increased coverage of afternoon convection relative to previous days.
216 AM EDT Wed Jul 9 2025 A bubble of high pressure over the region will bring mainly dry weather through tonight, although there is a low risk for a shower or thunderstorm with a frontal boundary just off to our south.
We will likely continue to see a rather active weather pattern for the next several days as Southeast TX remains wedged between two high pressure systems, one situated over SW CONUS and another one situated over the eastern Gulf, allowing for weaknesses to pass overhead and a mid-upper level trough to scoot into northeast TX at times.
1232 AM CDT Wed Jul 9 2025 Updated at 1228 AM CDT Wed Jul 9 2025 - A few showers and thunderstorms (10-30 percent chance) are expected this afternoon and evening, with the best chance across southeast New Mexico and the higher terrain areas of west Texas. (This afternoon through Wednesday night) A ridge of high pressure builds over northwestern Mexico and the Desert Southwest to start off the short term period.
- Upper ridge setting up across the Lower Mississippi Valley could result in Heat Advisory headlines by the end of the 7-day forecast. This activity should continue dissipating but we will likely keep at least isolated storms around through at least sunrise near the I-20 Corridor due to an inverted upper trough that remains entrenched across our region. This feature is wedged between high pressure off the eastern seaboard and upper ridging across the Four Corners Region of the Country. The greatest coverage area appears to be near and south and east of the I-30 Corridor Today through this evening as this is where the highest PWAT should reside.
We will be slowly moving into a more unsettled pattern as we head into the weekend as moisture steadily returns around the periphery of a large upper high. Through the weekend we will be kinda stuck between a rock and a hard place with a rather stout upper high over the Bahamas and upper troughing over the central Midwest.
An inverted mid-level trough of low pressure will retrograde west from the western Gulf of America into northeast Mexico, where it will then linger and transition into a broad 500 mb low.
1244 AM CDT Wed Jul 9 2025 - High pressure and quiet weather mid week with near average temperatures.
-An upper level low and deep moisture will support increased diurnal convection through Wednesday with some locally torrential downpours possible.
500mb trough will move slowly eastward today across the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley. The area to watch will be over the southern tier particularly into the lower Susq Valley given juxtaposition of max CAPE/shear and 1. In the wake of a cold front, areas that have received locally heavy rainfall this evening will have higher potential for fog and widespread visibility restrictions overnight.
2) Isolated to scattered showers/thunderstorms are expected with a cold front late this afternoon.
(Today through Tuesday) Another typical muggy, summertime overnight period is present with current temperatures in the low to mid 70s with mostly calm winds at the surface as an altostratus deck builds in over the Mid- South. The latest composite reflectivity indicates a few stratiform showers mainly west of the Mississippi river with lift from a positively tiled trough currently fixated over the Middle Mississippi Valley. Moving closer to daybreak, stratiform showers will continue along the aforementioned trough. Given the orientation of the trough and a very weather instability axis this afternoon, severe thunderstorms are not expected. Precipitation chances will begin to dwindle by sunset as the aforementioned trough begins to deamplify east and weak ridging builds in.
Warm southerly flow persists ahead of an approaching cold front and upper level trough to the northwest. The aforementioned upper level trough and front should help spawn scattered showers and thunderstorms in the warm, moist environment by around 3pm. For tonight, a trough axis will be parked over the Ohio Valley. Considering the calm winds and saturation in the trough axis, low clouds and fog are possible overnight.
Mid level trough will slowly work across the Ohio Valley today with an associated vort max crossing IN and central KY later this morning and afternoon. At the sfc, a weak cold front will drop southeast across IL/IN during the day into the evening.
Expect the cloud cover to hold for the day, which will help keep our temps a few degrees cooler today, and possibly result in weaker destabilization. Mid level trough will slowly work across the Ohio Valley today with an associated vort max crossing IN and central KY later this morning and afternoon. At the sfc, a weak cold front will drop southeast across IL/IN during the day into the evening. A secondary cold front will drop southward through the Ohio Valley on Thursday. Front is not expected to make it into our CWA but we will see slightly drier air filter behind the passing trough axis as PWAT values drop to around 1.
Heat index values will be in the low 90s to near 104 degrees. A big upper ridge is centered over Arizona with Nebraska and Kansas under the eastern edge of it. The previously mentioned upper ridge will be somewhat flattened on Thursday by an upper trough out of Canada moving over the northern Rocky Mountains. Heat index values are expected to range from the low 90s to near 104 degrees. Low temperatures Thursday night will range from the low 60s to low 70s.
Scattered shower and storm activity is ongoing and will continue to develop through the day with the highest coverages likely across southwest GA and the Florida Big Bend.
601 AM CDT Wed Jul 9 2025 (Today through Thursday) A trough at 500 mb will move across the Ohio Valley and Mississippi Valley today, bringing weak height falls and a coherent swath of southwesterly flow in the 850-500 mb layer. A deficit in PWAT values south of I-20, associated with a decaying weak 500 mb ridge, should result in somewhat lower coverage of afternoon convection. As the trough axis moves into Alabama on Thursday, afternoon thunderstorm activity will become more widespread.
The aforementioned upper level trough and front should help spawn scattered showers and thunderstorms in the warm, moist environment by around 3pm. For tonight, a trough axis will be parked over the Ohio Valley. Considering the calm winds and saturation in the trough axis, low clouds and fog are possible overnight. On Thursday, scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible once again with a washed out front over the area and upper level troughing in place. Weak zonal flow to start the period will back and strengthen a bit as a short wave lifting out of the central Plains into the Great Lakes gets absorbed into a deeper trough moving from the northern Plains into the upper Great Lakes. While upper forcing will remain north of the region, it will push a cold front through the area over the weekend.
Meanwhile, high pressure ushers in quiet and dry weather today through Thursday. Temps across Upper Michigan have settled into the low 60s and 50s. Look for high temperatures today to peak in the low 70s interior with 60s seen closer to Lake Superior under light northerly winds behind afternoon lake breeze development. With the upper ridge axis extending into Ontario, warmer 850mb temps ~12-14C will support sfc temperatures a little on the warmer side, climbing into the upper 70s to low 80s with mid 70s felt near the lakeshores and Keweenaw.
421 AM CDT Wed Jul 9 2025 - High pressure builds in today with quiet weather.
High pressure remains to our south, as it has done over the last several days, with dry conditions still in place. The trough and front will be moving through Thursday morning so while some showers/storms are expected, do not anticipate especially strong storms as instability will not be at a maximum and once peak heating kicks in, the front will have already moved to the Front Range. Highs will drop 5 to 8 degrees Thursday as northerly flow ushers in slightly cooler air.
The warm up is attributed to a rapidly building ridge from the east through today and offshore trends from the north during this period as well. Warmer valleys will experience highs between 95 and 105 degrees. There is a small (5 percent) chance of a shower or two in the higher mountains of Ventura and Los Angeles Counties this afternoon to early evening.
Hot and mostly dry conditions will persist over Utah and southwest Wyoming today, with a few high based showers developing over the higher terrain this afternoon. High pressure will rebuild by the weekend, bringing another warming trend.
632 AM CDT Wed Jul 9 2025 - High pressure builds in today with quiet weather.
A retrograding weak trough currently near the Texas coast and weakness dropping south out of north Texas will link up this afternoon and evening across the region.
Afternoon highs are expected to climb into the upper 80s over the eastern Ozarks, and the low 90s elsewhere.
High pressure will strengthen and shift just slightly east over the Four Corners tomorrow, and that will result in highs in the mid to upper 90s for most areas tomorrow.
- Upper ridge setting up across the Lower Mississippi Valley could result in Heat Advisory headlines by the end of the 7-day forecast. This activity should continue dissipating but we will likely keep at least isolated storms around through at least sunrise near the I-20 Corridor due to an inverted upper trough that remains entrenched across our region. This feature is wedged between high pressure off the eastern seaboard and upper ridging across the Four Corners Region of the Country. The greatest coverage area appears to be near and south and east of the I-30 Corridor Today through this evening as this is where the highest PWAT should reside. These ingredients shift every so slowly eastward for Thursday and thus, the highest pops Thu/Thu Evng should reside across the east and southeast half of our region.
725 AM EDT Wed Jul 9 2025 High pressure just north of the region will provide mainly quiet weather through tonight though some isolated showers are possible.
Today, the high pressure barely moves to the east keeping us on the eastern periphery. High temperatures are expected to remain in the low to mid 90s regionwide. Thursday, the upper high expands further east into the forecast area, providing slightly warmer temperatures and dry conditions for most, thanks to increasing subsidence.
514 AM CDT Wed Jul 9 2025 - Sunny today with high temperatures in the low to mid 80s.
Mid level trough will slowly work across the Ohio Valley today with an associated vort max crossing IN and central KY later this morning and afternoon. At the sfc, a weak cold front will drop southeast across IL/IN during the day into the evening. A secondary cold front will drop southward through the Ohio Valley on Thursday. Front is not expected to make it into our CWA but we will see slightly drier air filter behind the passing trough axis as PWAT values drop to around 1.
- Upper ridge setting up across the Lower Mississippi Valley could result in Heat Advisory headlines by the end of the 7-day forecast. An upper-level trough across the Mid-Mississippi Valley stretching south across Arkansas into northeast Texas will allow for increased instability across the region today. At this time, already beginning to see radar echoes along the eastern extent of the trough across portions of Deep East Texas. Convection to increase with the highest coverage across mainly Deep East Texas and north Louisiana this afternoon. Otherwise, with increased instability and cloud cover, temperatures forecast to remain slightly cooler than the expected July highs, averaging around 90 degrees areawide. Temperatures tonight to average in the lower 70s. Upper-trough to linger across the region through Thursday allowing for another round afternoon of scattered convection.
An upper level high pressure system will continue to expand west into Thursday, becoming more centered over Southern California. The high pressure aloft will keep the marine layer shallower and any additional influx in moisture will keep any marine layer low cloud coverage patchy and confined to coastal areas tonight into Thursday morning. With the upper level high expanding west across Southern California through Thursday, above average temperatures are expected for inland locations. High temperatures will range from the 70s near the coast; to the 90s to 105 for the Inland Empire; and 114 to 118 for the lower deserts. Widespread moderate HeatRisk is expected for the valleys and mountains, with widespread major HeatRisk in the low deserts.
Temps as of 2 PM have climbed into the 80s to near 90F for the high valleys, and 90s to around 100F for the plains. The ridge of high pressure overhead will start to flatten this evening as an approaching upper disturbance crosses the Intermountain West and pushes into the Great Basin. Plan on a very mild, and for some "stuffy", night tonight with overnight lows in the 50s for the high valleys, and 60s to near 70F for the plains. Farther east, the passing wave will push a cold front south across the Palmer Divide and the eastern plains. After a warm start, max temps tomorrow are expected to quickly warm into the 80s to around 90F for the high valleys, and 90-100F for the plains.
(This afternoon through Thursday) High pressure will move through the Gulf, with an upper level low pressure system and trough moving through the Ohio Valley.
With the upper trough coming through overnight, our rain and storm chances will drop off some tomorrow, but we'll still see some convective activity tomorrow, most notably along the Cumberland Plateau.
This trough will start to advect moisture into our region out of the southwest later today and overnight.
Low- and mid-level vorticity analysis places a positively tilted inverted trough extending from the western Bahamas southwestward towards the western Caribbean south of Cuba. Visible satellite observations depict a well- defined cirrus deck streaming northeastward towards the Lower Keys away from the convection in the Straits.
- Cooler, showery and breezy on Thursday, especially in northwest Montana Showers have developed just south of Lemhi County between Challis and Mackay. There is a 40 percent chance for lightning in the higher elevations of the park in the Lewis Range, including the Going-to-the-Sun Road above the hairpin turn, or what is called the "Loop". Also the probabilities are heightened in the mountains above Bowman Lake and Quartz Lake, east of Polebridge. Thursday will be much cooler across the region, generally 10 to 15 degrees cooler in the valleys, but up to 20 degrees cooler in the mountains. Warm and dry conditions return by the weekend as high pressure rebuilds. Highs will returns to the 80s and 90s, and low 100s in the lower valleys of north-central Idaho (i.
Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Broad mid-upper level troughing remains atop the Great Lakes region this afternoon with the trough axis expected to cross northern MI late this afternoon/early evening.
-The upper level low will weaken on Thursday as it moves into Texas.
Today and Thursday will be the warmest days of the week as high pressure over Arizona expands into California. Central Coast areas are a day behind as the lingering trough over northern California is limiting the warming there today.