Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Cooler temperatures will give way to a rapid warming trend as high pressure takes hold over the weekend and early in the new week. Unsettled and cool weather continues this afternoon across the region as troughing remains over the region and a weak disturbance starts pushing off to our east. While drier conditions and mostly sunny skies are expected Saturday for most locales, there will still be a few showers on Saturday for the White Mountains as another disturbance digs down the backside of the trough.
937 AM CST Fri Mar 8 2024 Updated zones to lower highs/reflect falling temperatures in the Big Country due to cold front and clouds. (Today and tonight) An upper level trough currently centered across the Desert Southwest will slowly approach West Central Texas overnight. As large scale lift overspreads the area with the approaching aforementioned upper level trough, expect an increase in activity. A cold front is forecast to track south across the area late this morning and into the afternoon hours. Expect gusty north winds and cooler temperatures behind the front. Highs will be in the low to mid 60s across the Big Country to the upper 60s to mid 70s elsewhere. Isolated to scattered showers are possible this afternoon, mainly across the Big Country, with the passage of the upper level trough.
1122 AM CST Fri Mar 8 2024 (Today and tonight) An upper level trough currently centered across the Desert Southwest will slowly approach West Central Texas overnight. As large scale lift overspreads the area with the approaching aforementioned upper level trough, expect an increase in activity. A cold front is forecast to track south across the area late this morning and into the afternoon hours. Expect gusty north winds and cooler temperatures behind the front. Highs will be in the low to mid 60s across the Big Country to the upper 60s to mid 70s elsewhere. Isolated to scattered showers are possible this afternoon, mainly across the Big Country, with the passage of the upper level trough.
Surface ridging will move overhead Saturday morning shifting into North Texas in the afternoon.
With warmer afternoon temperatures, the impacts should be minimal and held to wet roads, to opted not to keep those counties in the advisory. We have an upper trough sliding east across the central United States today.
Temperatures will be about 10 degrees below normal today with easterly winds making it feel a bit cooler.
156 PM EST Fri Mar 8 2024 - Widespread rain this afternoon, with more rain overnight as a cold front approaches.
(Tonight through Saturday Night) Water vapor imagery early this afternoon shows a large trough still to our west across the Great Plains area. But farther to the south, a warm front is situated across central MS, AL, and GA with showers concentrated along this front. Our break in the activity will come to an end tonight as this main trough and its associated cold front finally swing through the area. In the wake of the cold front, temperatures will be cool with highs on Saturday mainly in the low to mid-50's.
Current obs along the Keys show temperatures in the low 80s with dew points in the mid to upper 70s, and you can feel that in the humidity if you step outside.
152 PM MST Fri Mar 8 2024 High Pressure ridge continues to build in over the region. For this afternoon, temperatures were trending a little warmer than in the grids but not high enough for what the NBM was calling out, so went and used NBM50 for today's maximum temps.
High pressure remains over the Northern Rockies, producing bountiful sunshine, southerly winds, and warmer than normal afternoon temperatures. A sharp trough moving east in the Pacific will begin to push the high pressure east of our area on Saturday. Late Saturday southerly winds increase with valleys gusting to 25 mph, especially in the Camas Prairie ID, while ridgelines gust into the 40s.
A subtropical ridge nudging higher heights into the forecast area has resulted in plenty of sunshine making it through some high- level clouds this afternoon, and winds around 5 to 10 mph out of the southeast. As we go through the end of the week, and into the weekend, the ridging pattern helps to keep weather conditions similar to today with highs in the 80s and overnight lows in the mid to upper 70s.
High pressure will dominate the period bringing dry conditions and warming temperatures, though temperatures will remain mostly below normal. However, high pressure will be weakening tonight into Saturday. High pressure will weaken.
946 AM PST Fri Mar 8 2024 Quiet and dry into the weekend with high pressure aloft. (Today and tonight) A transient, high amplitude ridge sets up over the region today, promoting absolutely wonderful weather to start the weekend.
325 PM EST Fri Mar 8 2024 Low pressure advancing to the Great Lakes will produce several rounds of showers tonight through Saturday, accompanied by mild temperatures.
The positively tilted upper trough extending from south-central Canada to the Desert Southwest will move eastward while becoming more neutral Saturday afternoon as it crosses the Mississippi River. In addition with surface dewpoints rising into the lower to mid 60s across much of the forecast area this evening, PWATs rebound to around 2 inches by late this afternoon. Damaging winds and tornadoes are possible along and south of the warm front, with large hail possible in any elevated storms early on north of the warm front or associated with any left splitting supercells in the warm sector. There is some potential for flash flooding with the potential of training convection along the warm front lifting northward.
Low chances of thunderstorms Saturday afternoon ahead of the cold front. Discussion: Longwave troughing continues across the Central CONUS with a 130+kt upper jet stretching from east Texas northeastward through the Great Lakes. With southwest flow and low-level WAA, temperatures remain warmer than normal tonight into Saturday.
1242 PM EST Fri Mar 8 2024 Low pressure advancing to the Great Lakes will produce several rounds of showers today through Saturday, accompanied by mild temperatures.
636 PM EST Fri Mar 8 2024 Low pressure advancing to the Great Lakes will produce several rounds of showers tonight through Saturday, accompanied by mild temperatures.
Strong cold air advection behind yesterday's cold front is working to keep temperatures more seasonable for early March, which we haven't seen much of lately.
515 PM CST Fri Mar 8 2024 (This evening through Saturday) The upper troughs axis expected to move through the Southern Plains this evening pushing the secondary "reinforcing" cold front further into far southeast Oklahoma with colder and drier air well in place across our entire area. Mid-level forcing will stay east of the troughs axis and moving east and out of our area, with all afternoon precipitation (snow in west & northwest Oklahoma to rain elsewhere) gradually diminishing through the early evening hours. Winds decrease by Saturday afternoon with a cooler than average day under the exiting trough as temperatures only rise into the 50s areawide.
GAH AFTERNOON DISCUSSION: High Pressure ridge continues to build in over the region. For this afternoon, temperatures were trending a little warmer than in the grids but not high enough for what the NBM was calling out, so went and used NBM50 for today's maximum temps.
236 PM MST Fri Mar 8 2024 Upper level ridging building in will allow temperature to rise to a bit above average for Saturday. Upper level ridging is becoming more established across the region today, allowing for temperatures to commence a warming trend under mostly clear skies. Winds have become gusty along the Rocky Mountain Front, but given the age of the snowpack and temperatures warming to or a bit above freezing, snow has largely just been drifting. The upper level ridge axis shifts eastward Saturday, though with briefly southwesterly flow aloft, temperatures will climb above average in most areas.
520 PM CST Fri Mar 8 2024 Chances of showers and a few thunderstorms will continue as a cold front moves through the region tonight. This front will eventually exit region resulting in much cooler temperatures.
525 PM CST Fri Mar 8 2024 (Thru Tonight) A smaller scale circulation aloft was located over southern OK this afternoon, embedded within a much larger NE-SW oriented upper trough, and was moving ENE. As the cold core moves over portions of E OK and NW AR that get some insolation this afternoon, some near surface based instability may be realized, despite the fact that the area is behind the cold front. Lacy (Tonight through Friday) Skies will clear on Saturday morning, but the cooler air moving into the region behind today's cold front will yield below average high temps in the 50s.
/NEW/ /Tonight through Saturday Night/ Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms continue this evening mainly along and east of the I-35 corridor where a cold front is located. Water vapor imagery shows a large upper trough throughout much of the central CONUS at this time which is providing forcing for ascent, but a broad northerly flow is already in place even well ahead of the front. Meanwhile, the cold front will continue to move through the region with much colder air spilling into North Texas. Temps are already in the low 40s in the northwest and still in the 70s in the southeast. Skies will clear late in the day and Saturday night will be cold with lows near freezing in our northwest and mid 30s elsewhere.
(This evening through Saturday) The upper troughs axis expected to move through the Southern Plains this evening pushing the secondary "reinforcing" cold front further into far southeast Oklahoma with colder and drier air well in place across our entire area. Mid-level forcing will stay east of the troughs axis and moving east and out of our area, with all afternoon precipitation (snow in west & northwest Oklahoma to rain elsewhere) gradually diminishing through the early evening hours. Winds decrease by Saturday afternoon with a cooler than average day under the exiting trough as temperatures only rise into the 50s areawide.
527 PM CST Fri Mar 8 2024 - Low temperatures tonight well below 32 degrees tonight with widespread lows in the lower 20s.
339 PM CST Fri Mar 8 2024 - Any lingering wet or slushy roads may refreeze tonight as temperatures go well below freezing overnight.
Synoptically, a broad and messy trough will continue to remain over the region. While this feature will bring disorganized ascent to the area, main forcing will come with a short wave that will push southward along the western periphery of the larger trough.
Upper level ridging building in will allow temperature to rise to a bit above average for Saturday. Upper level ridging is becoming more established across the region today, allowing for temperatures to commence a warming trend under mostly clear skies. Winds have become gusty along the Rocky Mountain Front, but given the age of the snowpack and temperatures warming to or a bit above freezing, snow has largely just been drifting. The upper level ridge axis shifts eastward Saturday, though with briefly southwesterly flow aloft, temperatures will climb above average in most areas.
631 PM EST Fri Mar 8 2024 - Widespread rain this afternoon, with more rain overnight as a cold front approaches.
746 PM CST Fri Mar 8 2024 Cold front now pushing across the MO bootheel. (Tonight through Saturday Night) Water vapor imagery early this afternoon shows a large trough still to our west across the Great Plains area. But farther to the south, a warm front is situated across central MS, AL, and GA with showers concentrated along this front. Our break in the activity will come to an end tonight as this main trough and its associated cold front finally swing through the area. In the wake of the cold front, temperatures will be cool with highs on Saturday mainly in the low to mid-50's.
944 PM EST Fri Mar 8 2024 Low pressure advancing to the Great Lakes will produce several rounds of showers tonight through Saturday, accompanied by mild temperatures.
609 PM CST Fri Mar 8 2024 (Tonight through Saturday Night) Water vapor imagery early this afternoon shows a large trough still to our west across the Great Plains area. But farther to the south, a warm front is situated across central MS, AL, and GA with showers concentrated along this front. Our break in the activity will come to an end tonight as this main trough and its associated cold front finally swing through the area. In the wake of the cold front, temperatures will be cool with highs on Saturday mainly in the low to mid-50's.
634 PM CST Fri Mar 8 2024 - Any lingering wet or slushy roads may refreeze tonight as temperatures go well below freezing overnight.
A few rumbles of thunder cannot be ruled out as some meager mid level instability hangs around the region, though the threat of thunder will wane as the evening progresses and more stable air continues to be ushered in behind the passing cold front. Lows tonight will be much colder, with temperatures dipping into the lower 30s across the north to upper 30s along the Red River. Bowlan (Saturday through Friday) Skies will clear on Saturday morning, but the cooler air moving into the region behind today's cold front will yield below average high temps in the 50s.
505 PM CST Fri Mar 8 2024 (This evening through Saturday) Cold front along a San Angelo.
Chances of showers and a few thunderstorms will continue as a cold front moves through the region tonight. This front will eventually exit region resulting in much cooler temperatures.
850 PM CST Fri Mar 8 2024 00Z upper air analysis places a longwave trough from Manitoba back through the Middle Mississippi Valley and into the Southern Plains. Short-term model trends including CAMs indicate a slight increase in rain chances across the Mid-South over the next few hours with additional chances late tonight into Saturday morning as the longwave trough axis shifts east across the area. CJC Chances of showers and a few thunderstorms will continue as a cold front moves through the region tonight. This front will eventually exit region resulting in much cooler temperatures.
1041 PM CST Fri Mar 8 2024 (This evening through Saturday) Cold front along a San Angelo.
155 AM EST Sat Mar 9 2024 - Widespread rain this afternoon, with more rain overnight as a cold front approaches.
A high-amplitude upper ridge will move east tonight as the first in a series of Pacific troughs moves inland on Saturday. The trough is expected to weaken and track mainly to our north, but there is a up to a 50 percent chance of showers from northern Harney County and Baker County in the afternoon to central Idaho in the evening. Temperatures will be several degrees warmer, but still a few degrees below normal.
(Today) Cool temperatures have settled into the area behind today's cold front, with current readings ranging from the upper 30s to low 40s. The upper level trough is beginning to move east, but wrap around precip is continuing to result in a broad area of light to moderate precip across portions of eastern OK and western AR. High temperatures will reach the low to mid 50s with high pressure settling in.
1057 PM CST Fri Mar 8 2024 Cold front now pushing across the MO bootheel. (Tonight through Saturday Night) Water vapor imagery early this afternoon shows a large trough still to our west across the Great Plains area. But farther to the south, a warm front is situated across central MS, AL, and GA with showers concentrated along this front. Our break in the activity will come to an end tonight as this main trough and its associated cold front finally swing through the area. In the wake of the cold front, temperatures will be cool with highs on Saturday mainly in the low to mid-50's.
There could be some patchy fog development late tonight into early Saturday morning over the interior and west coast metro areas, as the low level moisture will still remain in place over South Florida tonight along with light winds. Temperatures are expected to peak above normal in the low to mid 80s. With an established mid-level ridge in place, conditions across South Florida will remain dry and warm tomorrow.
A cold front approaching the Florida panhandle will push across the state of Florida today and tonight. A band of showers and isolated thunderstorms ahead of the cold front will move over the nature coast during the late afternoon/early evening hours.
The latest guidance shows another round of light rain during this early Saturday morning window with the base of the trough swinging across the area.
This will result in good radiational cooling conditions, with temperatures dropping into the low to mid 30s for most locations.
Extensive low clouds will offset cold air advection, keeping overnight lows generally above freezing, but a few locations across the northwest will get very close to 32 degrees by sunrise. Although the pressure gradient will gradually relax through the afternoon, it will remain breezy for much of the day, making the already cool temperatures feel even cooler. /Issued 253 PM CST Fri Mar 8 2024/ /Saturday Night Onward/ Cooler weather conditions will settle in across North and Central Texas for the rest of the weekend behind a strong cold front.
1046 PM CST Fri Mar 8 2024 - Any lingering wet or slushy roads may refreeze tonight as temperatures go well below freezing overnight.
1117 PM CST Fri Mar 8 2024 00Z upper air analysis places a longwave trough from Manitoba back through the Middle Mississippi Valley and into the Southern Plains. Short-term model trends including CAMs indicate a slight increase in rain chances across the Mid-South over the next few hours with additional chances late tonight into Saturday morning as the longwave trough axis shifts east across the area. CJC Chances of showers and a few thunderstorms will continue as a cold front moves through the region tonight. This front will eventually exit region resulting in much cooler temperatures.
The earlier convection has left a boundary across our southeast most zones that appears to have stalled as a weak center of low pressure over southwest Louisiana looks to ride east along this boundary and prolong shower and thunderstorm chances across southern Marion, Lamar and Forest counties for the next hour or two. Region radars did show a few light showers and thunderstorms over the ArkLaTex associated with the cold front. Latest cam guidance has backed off on the chance for any additional measurable precipitation across our CWA but wl maintain low chance pops until the cold front is southeast of our CWA by morning.
1045 PM CST Fri Mar 8 2024 (Tonight through Saturday night) A cold front stretches across northern and central TX this afternoon from near Stephenville to Ozona to southern NM. This front will move through our CWA this evening and usher in much cooler and drier air. The strong wind will bring in cooler air.
Ridging aloft is slowly shifting eastward in response to an upper level trough driving a cold front through the north Gulf coast and southeast U. In the lower levels, we remain on the western periphery of the ridge that is also being shunted eastward in advance of the aforementioned front. Meanwhile, high level cirrus continues to stream in overhead due to upper level ridge. The HRRR was the most aggressive showing a swath of 15 to 20 knots moving across the waters east of the Seven Mile Bridge. Otherwise, dry air noted above 850 mb in combination with the deep layer ridging and a notable subsidence inversion centered near 700 mb, should shutdown any precipitation chances and therefore we can continue with near nil.
Both low level cloud cover and surface northerly winds will decrease notably after sunrise as low to midlevel flow weakens and pronounced surface ridging rapidly builds into the region. Once this ridge fully establishes over the South Plains region by midday, light winds and sunny skies will continue through the rest of the day.
A cold front was moving across central Indiana early this morning, with temperatures falling into the 40s behind the front. An upper trough was moving in from the west. The rain will continue to move east as the cold front does so, with most of the rain east of central Indiana by 12Z. Radar does show some returns with the upper trough back across northern Illinois, but these look to rotate into areas north of the forecast area. The upper trough will be overhead but won't be providing much in the way of forcing. Otherwise, an upper low will move through Lower Michigan, with troughing extending south into Indiana.
925 PM PST Fri Mar 8 2024 High pressure aloft will bring a sunny, mild day Saturday.
224 AM PST Sat Mar 9 2024 High pressure aloft will bring a sunny, mild day Saturday. Sunday will be a few degrees cooler in the coastal and valley areas.
The mid level trough will swing through the Tennessee Valley today, and expect light rain and/or drizzle across northern counties through the morning. A cold front will quickly push through the area, with breezy northwesterly winds and slowly clearing skies.
608 AM CST Sat Mar 9 2024 - Warmer today, but with a wide variation in temperatures between the north where a snowpack remains, and snow free areas in the south.
457 AM CST Sat Mar 9 2024 (Today) While we are still seeing some wind gusts up to 25 MPH, winds are forecast to significantly die down over the next few hours as the trough approaches. The passage of the trough will support low to medium rain chances across the area through mid morning. The passage of the trough from 10-14Z will allow rain chances to fall off greatly with negligible rain chances by noon. Highs will likely be realized by mid day only making it a few degrees warmer than morning lows, into the high 50s and low 60s.
(Today through Sunday) A cold front that passed through Deep South Texas overnight/early this morning will lead to some breezy conditions and cooler temperatures for today. As the mid-level trough continues to push eastward through northern Texas today, mid and high level clouds along with CAA will keep temperatures a bit cooler than previous days with highs only topping out in the low 70s, with mid 60s along the coast. Tonight, temperatures will fall into the 40s across portions of the northern Ranchlands to mid 50s in the lower Valley.
A stronger low pressure system will drop into the area around mid-to-late week, bringing gusty northerly winds to the area and briefly knocking temperatures down a few degrees. Temperatures will begin to gradually warm up over the weekend thanks to the transient ridge currently over the area. This ridge will be pushed off to our east on Sunday as a low pressure system approaches the Pacific Northwest, resulting in breezy southwesterly winds across the area on Sunday afternoon and evening. 45-55 mph westerly wind gusts are expected along the ridgeline of the Sierra, with 25- 35 mph southwesterly gust across the Western Mojave Deserts into Southern Nevada.
Prevailing LIFR/IFR conditions were noted across the forecast area at 11z in the wake of a cold front passing through the area. /22 (Now through Sunday) Lingering showers with a few embedded thunderstorms across the far southeastern portion of our forecast area ahead of cold front will move out of the area by mid morning. Dry weather will follow through the remainder of the near term as zonal flow aloft return in the wake of the upper trough. This will also usher in cooler temps over the weekend.
Currently - A deep layered ridge aloft stretches northward across Florida and the northwestern Bahamas, and along the Atlantic coast. Meanwhile, at the surface, a ridge extends south southwestward just off the Atlantic coast and broadens to the southwest and west across our area and through the Gulf of Mexico. Forecast - Over the next couple of days a cold front will advance slowly through the Gulf of Mexico. Rain chances will nudge up on Sunday as the approaching cold front sets up confluent lower level flow and increasing moisture. Winds will then clock north then northeast Sunday night as high pressure begins to shuffle eastwards into the southeastern United States. The steadily veering winds will minimize the degree of post cold front cooling and drying.
537 AM CST Sat Mar 9 2024 Cooler today and Sunday.