Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
With the light northeasterly flow and the lack of cloud coverage currently in the Lower and Middle Keys, there is also a window for an island cloud line to form over the next several hours ahead of the wave axis passage, and we are on alert for the potential for waterspouts associated with any developing cloud streamers.
246 AM PDT Thu Jul 10 2025 Not much change for today with high temperatures as much as 8 to 12 degrees above average for the lower deserts and inland valleys.
- Remaining mild throughout with highs around the low to mid 90s. At the surface, a cold front will make its way across the forecast area this morning and afternoon. If the higher winds materialize, could see some blowing dust as well given that the hot and dry conditions yesterday may have primed the top soil. The main threats with these storms will be large hail for our westernmost areas this afternoon and early evening thanks in part due to the higher lapse rates in that area. Scattered afternoon storms will develop along a cold front with a low probability of impacting KMCK before quickly moving off to the east.
- Cold front moves through today bringing cooler temperatures, gusty winds, and a chance for rain.
525 AM MDT Thu Jul 10 2025 - Cooler temps, closer to normal through Friday. Low pressure will exit the region today. Upper level flow turns northwest for the next couple days which will allow for cooler, more normal temperatures.
And if this front can break a cap of warmer 850-700 mb air that will b in place thru Thursday evening. System moves east Friday as upper trough moves through but this trough may aid in developing a few severe storms in northeast into central and southern Minnesota Friday afternoon, with SPC marginal risk for severe in our far east and southeast fcst area.
The highest chances remain over interior and SWFL terminals. High pressure surface and aloft will hold over the Florida peninsula through the weekend.
Meanwhile, high pressure remains in control at the surface and aloft keeping a light flow in place. This should materializes where the highest pockets of moisture exists. Additionally, the delay in the arrival of the sea breeze to interior areas will allow temperatures to reach the low to mid 90s and combined with the available moisture will make conditions feel uncomfortable.
As for the temperatures, the highs are generally expected to remain in the 90s for each day, however a few places in Starr and Zapata could get into the triple digits. Lastly, for the beaches, with the period and wave heights increasing slightly to 6 seconds and 3 to 4 feet, a moderate risk of rip currents is likely to be needed for the next several days at the Lower Texas coastal beaches.
142 PM MDT Thu Jul 10 2025 - Cooler temps, closer to normal through Friday. Winds remain elevated this afternoon though as the pressure gradient remains tight but this will slacken later tonight as high pressure again starts to build over the area. Temperatures are 5-8 degrees cooler than yesterday though with most places still in the mid to upper 70s currently but will climb into the low to mid 80s before the day is done.
Dry and cooler conditions are expected today, with high temperatures running about 3 degrees below normal.
902 AM MDT Thu Jul 10 2025 - Cold front moves through today bringing cooler temperatures, gusty winds, and a chance for rain. I added low PoPs to account for isolated light showers along the Northern Continental Divide this morning ahead of the cold front. The cold front passage will bring isolated showers and thunderstorms this afternoon in North- Central MT.
- Cold front moves through today bringing cooler temperatures, gusty winds, and a chance for rain. I added low PoPs to account for isolated light showers along the Northern Continental Divide this morning ahead of the cold front. The cold front passage will bring isolated showers and thunderstorms this afternoon in North- Central MT.
1130 AM MDT Thu Jul 10 2025 - Cooler temps, closer to normal through Friday. Low pressure will exit the region today. Upper level flow turns northwest for the next couple days which will allow for cooler, more normal temperatures.
Updated at 1208 PM PDT Thu Jul 10 2025 - Inland temperatures roughly 10 degrees warmer than yesterday, bringing moderate HeatRisk through Firday.
Locations across the area will see the hottest temperatures of the year so far; far W NV valleys seeing highs up to 105 degrees, the Quad Counties area experiencing 98-104 degrees, Sierra communities in the low 90s, and locations in NE CA pushing 103 degrees.
- Warm Friday, cooler this weekend, then a warming trend to begin the work week.
Temperatures will be slightly warmer with highs int he upper 80s to around 90 and lows mostly in the lower 70s.
(Rest of today through Friday) An upper trough has slipped to the east of Middle Tennessee, so we are now under a northwest flow aloft. (Friday Night through next Thursday) This weekend, another surface boundary/upper trough will start to approach Middle Tennessee from the northwest, so that will help to focus much of the energy and moisture in our still-unstable environment.
- A cold front moves into the area on Friday, bringing another chance for storms.
Aloft, an upper-trough across the region will allow for unstable conditions areawide through this evening, allowing for increased rain chances across portions of north Louisiana. Conditions are forecast to improve by midnight with overnight lows forecast to fall into the low to mid 70s.
- Cooler with thunderstorms tomorrow, especially late afternoon into evening hours; some strong. It will be noticeably cooler tomorrow across the region with highs in the 80s and 90s plains. Tomorrow evening a line of storms will move across the plains brining the potential of strong gusty winds, locally heavy rain, marginally severe hail and lightning to the lower elevations.
At the surface, a trough axis with fairly strong zone of convergence extended from between Springfield, CO and Elkhart, KS north-northeastward to between Leoti and Scott City, KS. Beyond tonight, the forecast has not changed all that much, as we are still looking at a cold front pushing south over the weekend. A pre-frontal trough will lead to northeasterly winds Friday afternoon, but the air mass will still be quite warm supporting highs well into the lower 90s, and a weak cap will support renewed thunderstorm development in vicinity of this trough axis. The cooler air upstream will not arrive until later Friday evening/night with 850mb temperatures dropping into the teens.
CAMS still support convection as a possibility along the front prior to departing out of the CWA, in addition to the random smattering of convection northwest of the boundary which would feature more stable conditions in the low levels, skinny CAPE and that higher shear environment.
Weak forcing for ascent ahead of the trough axis will again bring the low potential for isolated thunderstorms (15-25% chance) across portions of East and Northeast Texas. Otherwise, the rest of the region today, and the entire region tomorrow will see high pressure dominate, paving the way for mostly clear skies, highs in the mid-90s, and lows in the low to mid-70s.
206 PM MDT Thu Jul 10 2025 - Cold front arrives this evening.
(This afternoon through Friday) High pressure will remain over the Gulf, keeping westerly to southwesterly flow over the area through the short term.
Quasi-zonal flow continues across the Northern Rockies into the Northern Plains as cold front continues to push into the northwestern North Dakota this afternoon. The low level thermal ridge is elongated from the southwest to northeast which has brought back warm temperatures across the state this afternoon. An upper level trough is forecast to dig across southern Saskatchewan tonight leading to the initiation of these storms. The HRRR smoke model pushes smoke in with the front and even more smoke as the upper low moves through the region. Showers and thunderstorms will move out of the area by Friday afternoon as temperatures cool into the upper 60s north to the lower 80s southeast. Weak ridging will amply across Western CONUS this weekend leading to warming temperatures.
Typical summertime weather will persist as the local area remains situated between two upper level highs and under the influence of weak troughing aloft. Tomorrow should see a near repeat, but with potential for slightly less coverage as the troughing aloft begins to flatten. Temperatures will be near to slightly above normal with afternoon highs in the low to mid 90s and morning lows in the mid to upper 70s.
Southeast Texas remains sandwiched between two areas of high pressure aloft. Increasing moisture advection from the Gulf and the development of some trough weakness aloft will be enough to spark showers and thunderstorms throughout the day. The ridge to our east is projected to strengthen and shift westward, directly influencing Southeast TX. So, ridging aloft usually means hot conditions.
Temperatures remain in the triple digits across the lower desert today, with isolated thunderstorm chances mainly confined to the International Border this afternoon and evening.
This is all associated with the mid-level trough from southern Quebec extending southward through the Appalachians. Effective shear values reach up to 30 kt with slightly enhanced flow in the region associated with the upper low to our north in Canada. This would support fairly isolated thunderstorm development over the higher terrain within weak shear, but short-lived cells could still result in gusty winds in the vicinity. Headed into the weekend, the general synoptic pattern shows 500mb height rises across the northeast US that will lead to warmer weather and the potential for a brief period of heat impacts.
Instability is increasing across the area as temperatures (outside of FLO's cloud cover) have warmed well into the 80s with sfc dewpoints in the low 70s. Broad troughing will maintain the potential for daily afternoon showers and storms across the area this weekend.
- A slow moving cold front begins to push across the area Friday, with a threat for strong to severe storms ahead of the boundary across southwest into central Nebraska.
This has resulted in showers and storms developing over the high terrain. The wave has also pushed a cold front in from the north, which is another focus for showers and storms. Not all of the moisture gets washed out so there will be enough for another round of afternoon showers and storms on the higher terrain. The cold front looks to cool things down by a few degrees, but it is still hot and dry. Expect a series of dry, hot days with convection over the high terrain each afternoon. The highest PoPs are in the San Juan mountains each afternoon.
250 PM PDT Thu Jul 10 2025 - Cooler and locally breezy through Thursday evening.
341 PM PDT Thu Jul 10 2025 - Cooler and locally breezy through Thursday evening.
Our ridge continues to flatten just a little bit and retrograde westward into the coming weekend. Some longer range guidance indicates the possibility of an easterly wave and a weak s/wv trough that may ramp up our activity for a few days, but confidence is low.
Each cloud line developed along and just north of the Lower Keys.
We are monitoring upstream trends north of Minot where supercells have developed along the cold frontal zone and near the axis of 2500-3500 MLCAPE.
540 PM MDT Thu Jul 10 2025 - Cooler temps, closer to normal through Friday. Winds remain elevated this afternoon though as the pressure gradient remains tight but this will slacken later tonight as high pressure again starts to build over the area. Temperatures are 5-8 degrees cooler than yesterday though with most places still in the mid to upper 70s currently but will climb into the low to mid 80s before the day is done.
619 PM EDT Thu Jul 10 2025 (Rest of today through Friday) South Florida remains under the influence of surface and mid-level ridging which will act to maintain southeasterly flow across the area through today and tomorrow.
This would support fairly isolated thunderstorm development over the higher terrain within weak shear, but short-lived cells could still result in locally gusty winds. Headed into the weekend, the general synoptic pattern shows 500mb height rises across the northeast US that will lead to warmer weather and the potential for a brief period of heat impacts.
606 PM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025 (This afternoon through Friday) High pressure will remain over the Gulf, keeping westerly to southwesterly flow over the area through the short term.
741 PM MDT Thu Jul 10 2025 - Cold front arrives this evening.
Early 0Z data shows a couple different dry pocket; when coupled with the added subsidence with the ridge axis directly overhead, this is to be expected. Meanwhile, high pressure remains in control at the surface and aloft keeping a light flow in place. This should materializes where the highest pockets of moisture exists. Additionally, the delay in the arrival of the sea breeze to interior areas will allow temperatures to reach the low to mid 90s and combined with the available moisture will make conditions feel uncomfortable.
- Breezy and cooler today with highs mainly in the 70s.
However, a notable subsidence inversion around 650mb suggest the associated high pressure will help limit afternoon storm coverage.
Surface dew points in the low/mid 70s should also result in 1000-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE with diurnal heating. Overnight lows will remain seasonably mild in the low/mid 70s.
- Cold front timing this evening is slightly faster, but still expecting scattered storms to develop, most likely across east- central KS.
Highs today look hot and with dewpoints in the lower 70s, it will be very humid as well, leading to heat index values near 100. Highs in the low to mid 90s look likely, especially south of Highway 36. We actually could be in the low 90s by 18z. The one caveat to this is the potential for some high-level clouds, likely debris from Central to Southern High Plains convection from Thursday, to move overhead this afternoon, possibly inhibiting peak insolation and leading to slightly cooler temperatures. But given very steep lapse rates in the lowest 1.
1038 PM MDT Thu Jul 10 2025 - Cooler temps, closer to normal through Friday. Winds remain elevated this afternoon though as the pressure gradient remains tight but this will slacken later tonight as high pressure again starts to build over the area. Temperatures are 5-8 degrees cooler than yesterday though with most places still in the mid to upper 70s currently but will climb into the low to mid 80s before the day is done.
227 AM MDT Fri Jul 11 2025 - Cool and dry today, trending warmer this weekend.
A low amplitude upper level trough as seen on satellite imagery southwest to northeast across our CWA will gradually shift east Friday.
With the upper trough shifting farther to the east, there should be a decrease in showers and thunderstorms compared to the last few days. Unlike recent days, the highest chance for precipitation should be across eastern counties instead of western counties.
1215 AM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025 Weak mid-level low pressure remains sandwiched along the lower Texas coast with high pressure across the Desert SW and eastern Gulf into this weekend.
Ridging aloft remains a persistent feature through much of the forecast. The upper level ridge over the western Atlantic builds back into the region tonight as a trough lifts toward the Northeast.
Highs near 90, lows in the lower 70s. Abundant, deep moisture in place with precipitable water AOA 2 inches while the Piedmont trough and sea breeze will both act as triggers. Unsettled week ahead with Bermuda High and stalled front/Piedmont trough the theme. Weak ridging aloft Mon is shifted farther west Tue and a weakness in the 5h ridge develops over the Southeast. This weakness along with the Piedmont trough, sea breeze, and diurnal instability contribute to daily showers and thunderstorms. The only surface feature of note is a cold front moving in from the northwest later Mon into Tue which then stalls in the area.
WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO Update: The forecast looks to remain on track with the ridge breaking down slightly as a trough deepens from the north with a gradual cooldown beginning tomorrow and going into the weekend.
This boundary may become a focus for showers and storms this afternoon and tonight within a zone of low level mass convergence within the trough axis.
(Today) Hot and humid conditions will prevail again today, with afternoon heat index values ranging from the upper 90s to near 105 degrees in most places, and actual air temperatures in the low to mid 90s. A few isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon northwest of Interstate 44 as a weak cold front approaches from the north. (Tonight through Thursday) Showers and thunderstorms will become more likely tonight through the weekend with the aforementioned frontal boundary in the area and a weak upper trough moving across the area.
In this wake of this leading MCS, training convection along a stationary front sustained by the low level jet with a precipitable water axis around 2.
200 AM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025 - Typical mid July weather expected Friday, with afternoon temperatures in the lower to mid 90s and light winds.
Northwest flow over the region will keep temps close to normal once again today with highs in the mid to upper 80s for the lower elevations.
315 AM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025 - Scattered showers and isolated storms will persist through the morning hours, mainly over the lower Missouri River Valley into northwest Iowa.
Updated at 228 AM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025 - Warm and humid conditions are expected across the Mid-South, with high temperatures generally in the low to mid 90s and heat index values in the low 100s. Our typical summertime pattern will continue once again today, with a high pressure currently over the Gulf.
1039 PM PDT Thu Jul 10 2025 - Cooler and locally breezy through Thursday evening.
- Typical mid July weather expected Friday, with afternoon temperatures in the lower to mid 90s and light winds.
Highs climb into the lower 90s this afternoon with lows in the middle 70s tonight. An H5 ridge over the southern Bahamas combined with the Bermuda High stretching into the northeastern Gulf will combine to give us another round of late morning/afternoon showers and storms.
Weak mid-level low pressure remains sandwiched along the lower Texas coast with high pressure across the Desert SW and eastern Gulf into this weekend.
Max temps should top out in the lower/middle 90s prior to the onset of convection this afternoon with peak heat indices around 105F, likely just below heat advisory criteria at this time. Low temps fall into the lower/middle 70s Friday night over inland areas, with upper 70s along the Atlantic Coastal areas.
Northwest flow over the region will keep temps close to normal once again today with highs in the mid to upper 80s for the lower elevations. Ridge amplifies over the area on Saturday which will push our temps up a couple degrees.
(Today) Hot and humid conditions will prevail again today, with afternoon heat index values ranging from the upper 90s to near 105 degrees in most places, and actual air temperatures in the low to mid 90s. A few isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon northwest of Interstate 44 as a weak cold front approaches from the north.
Conditions will be cooler by the coast or where influenced by stratus, with highs varying from the upper 50s to low 70s.
718 AM EDT Fri Jul 11 2025 High pressure surface and aloft will hold over the region today and Saturday.
A low amplitude upper level trough as seen on satellite imagery southwest to northeast across our CWA will gradually shift east Friday. Wl continue to highlight this area with a "Limited" for heat stress but as we head into Saturday, lower chances for convection and slightly warmer temperatures may warrant a Heat Advisory for portions of our CWA.
305 AM MDT Fri Jul 11 2025 - A cold front will bring a chance of thunderstorms and cooler temperatures today, mainly East of the Divide.
A broad area of high pressure anchored over the Southwest will continue to exert its influence on the region. A disturbance well out of reach moving along the Canadian border will drag a weak trough across the Rockies this afternoon. The high builds east Saturday, while some extra-tropical moisture works northward up the Divide. Expect a series of dry, hot days with convection over the high terrain each afternoon.
Temperatures will climb sharply today as dry southwesterly flow and strong ridging expand overhead.
This lowered POPs slightly, but still looking at 30-70% chance for showers and thunderstorms this afternoon. A low amplitude upper level trough as seen on satellite imagery southwest to northeast across our CWA will gradually shift east Friday. Wl continue to highlight this area with a "Limited" for heat stress but as we head into Saturday, lower chances for convection and slightly warmer temperatures may warrant a Heat Advisory for portions of our CWA.
Another seasonably hot and humid day can be expected Friday out ahead of the front, with high temperatures in the lower to mid 90s and heat indices from the mid 90s to around 105. Those two areas will hence have the highest POPs, but will still include at least a slight chance of storms across the rest of the region in the event that the seabreeze pushes farther north or outflow farther south.
Temperatures will peak from around 90 to the lower 90s most areas. With the higher dewpoints in place, heat indices will be in the middle and upper 90s. Much of the night will be quiet, but late in the period an upper trough and surface boundary will approach from the west. Low temperatures will generally be in the lower 70s with muggy conditions.
- Wildfire smoke will degrade air quality behind a cold front today, potentially into the weekend. Well developed upper/mid level trough is easily viewable on water vapor imagery migrating through MT and southern SK early this morning. This will provide upper forcing for ascent for showers and thunderstorms along/near a cold front working its way east across ND, eventually into MN this afternoon. Behind the cold front, smoke from Canadian wildfires is being observed, and will degrade air quality through at least today (more details below). As the upper/mid trough pushes east into the Upper Midwest and western Great Lakes, drier air behind the cold front filters into the region, although there may be some scattered showers and/or weak thunderstorms near northwest Minnesota Saturday afternoon.
558 AM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025 Updated at 554 AM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025 - Warm and humid conditions are expected across the Mid-South, with high temperatures generally in the low to mid 90s and heat index values in the low 100s.
Shower activity has impacted a majority of Upper and Middle Keys, while the Lower Keys for now have been mostly spared. Along the island chain, temperatures are in the lower 80s. This weekend the high pressure that has been dominating our weather will persist maintaining east to southeasterly flow which will be slightly elevated due to the tightening of the pressure graident. Mid- level ridging is projected to shift northward as another tropical wave moves in from the east. OF NOTE At Key West, July 11, 2015 marked the end of 28 consecutive days with low temperatures of 80 degrees or warmer, the longest stretch on record.
Temperatures will edge into the lower to middle 90s today. With dew points in the lower to middle 70s, peak heat index values will top out in the 100-105F range. Tonight will be warm and muggy with overnight lows in the lower to middle 70s. An active weather pattern will arrive this weekend as a cold front attempts to push into the region from the northwest.
(Today and tonight) Dry today, as the extension of the upper ridge over the Southwest United States and northern Mexico will bring subsidence to the region. The lee trough will be stronger, however, with gusty south winds developing mid morning and continuing through sunset. Highs will be mainly in the lower 90s, with lows in the lower 70s.