Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
RED FLAG CONDITIONS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN Another toasty day with temps about 5 degrees above daily averages is in store for Friday before a cold front pushes into the area later in the day.
1205 AM EDT Fri Jul 18 2025 - Slightly cooler than normal temperatures continue the rest of the week, with highs generally being in the 60s to lower 70s.
149 AM EDT Fri Jul 18 2025 - Cooler and less humid air filters in through today.
331 AM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025 - After a chilly July day yesterday (record low high at Grand Island), much warmer/seasonal temperatures return today.
327 AM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025 - Active pattern returns late tonight as warmer more moist air moves north into the area. Some additional percolation / scattered convection/ is also possible in advance within a zone of broad WAA/isentropic ascent north of a warm front.
A strong U/L ridge will build over the Florida peninsula from the east today. Combination of the drier air aloft, less cloud cover/thunderstorm activity, and strong large scale subsidence associated with the U/L ridge will create rather hot conditions across west central and southwest Florida. The drier air aloft should mix down over the interior which would allow surface dew points to drop into the lower 70s during the heat of the afternoon.
207 AM EDT Fri Jul 18 2025 Dry weather returns today with cooler temperatures and lower humidity expected.
A weak trough over northern Baja continues to advect drier air into northern Arizona, as a result, PWATs look for this afternoon look to fall to around 0. While 0-6 km bulk shear is modest (06Z RAP guidance shows 30-40 kts) with the approach weak trough, instability looks weak.
As the low pressure center did not develop into a tropical cyclone, our region will become more under the influence of the mid level high that will be spreading back to the west. Surface analysis had a ridge that will be strengthening as it noses back to the west across the Gulf coast as well.
(Today) Through the day today an area of low pressure will push NE from the Gulf into the MS Valley guided by southerly flow from a dominate area of high pressure off the FL Coast. As the weak low pressure system pushes north, so too will a rather large plum of tropical moisture. The increased cloud cover will limit afternoon highs to the low 90s, keeping us below Heat Advisory criteria.
The best chance of rain will be across the Victoria Crossroads where chances are still on the low side (5-20%).
205 AM EDT Fri Jul 18 2025 A cold front has crosses the area this morning and will be bringing a much more comfortable air mass with it today. Breezy westerly winds will dry things out as temperatures remain in the 70s or climb into the lower 80s.
1148 PM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025 - After a cooler day today, expect warmer and more humid weather for Friday. Over the next several days upper level ridging will gradually expand northward across the plains and Midwest. A surface front over the southern plains will shift northward along with the ridging.
339 AM EDT Fri Jul 18 2025 Dry weather returns today with cooler temperatures and lower humidity expected.
112 AM EDT Fri Jul 18 2025 Partly cloudy, breezy and a little cooler tonight as a cold front moves through the region. Dry weather returns on Friday with cooler temperatures and lower humidity expected.
Sfc convergence associated with a weak warm front will support another round of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening across the FA as an elongated impulse at 500 mb provides modest forcing for ascent.
1030 PM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025 Updated aviation portion for 06Z TAF issuance - Cooler and less humid conditions expected through Friday. Cooler and much less humid conditions prevailed this afternoon as temperatures were only in the upper 60s to lower 70s.
122 AM EDT Fri Jul 18 2025 An approaching cold front may bring a brief shower through this evening.
609 AM EDT Fri Jul 18 2025 As of 610 AM EDT, have added in some PoPs as isolated showers were accompanying the secondary cold front now passing south/east of the Capital Region into the Catskills and Berkshires. High pressure will bring fair weather along with cooler and less humid conditions through Saturday.
632 AM EDT Fri Jul 18 2025 As of 610 AM EDT, have added in some PoPs as isolated showers were accompanying the secondary cold front now passing south/east of the Capital Region into the Catskills and Berkshires. High pressure will bring fair weather along with cooler and less humid conditions through Saturday.
The high pressure that brought us quiet weather recently will continue to shift east of the area today. Although it may be brief, there does look to be some reasonable potential for tornadic development given the strong turning in the low levels of hodographs near the warm front along the NE/SD border.
Highs are forecast to reach the lower 90s during the afternoon, but similar to yesterday, cloud cover and afternoon rain and storm chances may work to hold down temps and heat indices. Similar to today, the overall intensity of any thunderstorms should remain on the lower end of the spectrum, and widespread severe activity is not expected.
The moisture will is being drawn northward as a weak cold front approaches the area.
631 AM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025 Updated aviation portion for 12Z TAF issuance - Cooler and less humid conditions expected today. A mid level trough will bring a chance for more widespread rain tonight into Saturday as it tracks through the western Great Lakes region.
Low pressure currently near the Louisiana-Arkansas border.
On Saturday not much changes to the overall pattern with high pressure still over the Southern Plains and a weak low over southern Cal. Although enough moisture remains in place to support afternoon convection especially over the higher terrain.
515 AM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025 Updated at 515 AM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025 - Temperatures continue to warm up today and through the weekend as upper-level ridging builds. (Today through Saturday afternoon) WV imagery this morning shows the upper ridge extending from Baja del Sur through Texas through the southeast CONUS coast and into the Atlantic. To the west, an upper trough is right off the coast of Baja del Norte. The faux monsoon continues, but the upper ridge will keep rain chances once again confined to areas west of the Pecos both today and Saturday. The ridge is not forecast to move much over the next couple of days, and models gradually increase thicknesses through the weekend. slightly warmer than yesterday.
- Active pattern returns late tonight as warmer more moist air moves north into the area. Some additional percolation / scattered convection/ is also possible in advance within a zone of broad WAA/isentropic ascent north of a warm front. A cold front will then move southeast across the area Saturday afternoon into Saturday evening.
Now that we're well into summer, those 90-degree days in the lower valleys will be here to stay for the foreseeable future.
748 AM EDT Fri Jul 18 2025 On the heels of a cold frontal passage, high pressure will build from the Great Lakes through tonight, then pass offshore Saturday with a warm front approaching from the south.
827 AM EDT Fri Jul 18 2025 A cold front has crosses the area this morning and will be bringing a much more comfortable air mass with it today. Breezy westerly winds will dry things out as temperatures remain in the 70s or climb into the lower 80s.
541 AM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025 (Today) Through the day today an area of low pressure will push NE from the Gulf into the MS Valley guided by southerly flow from a dominate area of high pressure off the FL Coast. As the weak low pressure system pushes north, so too will a rather large plum of tropical moisture. The increased cloud cover will limit afternoon highs to the low 90s, keeping us below Heat Advisory criteria.
Infrared and water vapor imagery this morning showed southern Arizona was between an upper low off the northern Baja coast and an upper high centered over central Texas. This weekend: Southerly flow continues over the area with upper low over srn CA. Afternoon RH values in the low lying areas will be 20-30% through Friday decreasing to 17-25% over the weekend. In the higher terrain, RH will be around 30 to 50%.
636 AM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025 * Potential for isolated-scattered thunderstorms today as warm front lifts north.
612 AM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025 - After a chilly July day yesterday (record low high at Grand Island), much warmer/seasonal temperatures return today. So far, fog has been minimal (3SM at Cambridge last observation) but models keep suggestion of some fog west of Highway 281 for a time through mid-morning. Today will be marked by lingering clouds, low level moisture on the increase and warmer temperatures.
646 AM EDT Fri Jul 18 2025 Dry weather returns today with cooler temperatures and lower humidity expected.
(Tonight through Saturday) The short term will be characterized by a large retrograding high pressure system that will construct a new extension into Texas and New Mexico that will leave the entire southern half of the country east of the Rockies under the influence of a bone-dry ridge.
113 PM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025 Updated aviation portion for 18Z TAF issuance - Cooler and less humid conditions expected today. A mid level trough will bring a chance for more widespread rain tonight into Saturday as it tracks through the western Great Lakes region.
- After a chilly July day yesterday (record low high at Grand Island), much warmer/seasonal temperatures return today. So far, fog has been minimal (3SM at Cambridge last observation) but models keep suggestion of some fog west of Highway 281 for a time through mid-morning. Today will be marked by lingering clouds, low level moisture on the increase and warmer temperatures.
1213 PM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025 Updated at 1212 PM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025 - Temperatures continue to warm up today and through the weekend as upper-level ridging builds. (Today through Saturday afternoon) WV imagery this morning shows the upper ridge extending from Baja del Sur through Texas through the southeast CONUS coast and into the Atlantic. To the west, an upper trough is right off the coast of Baja del Norte. The faux monsoon continues, but the upper ridge will keep rain chances once again confined to areas west of the Pecos both today and Saturday. The ridge is not forecast to move much over the next couple of days, and models gradually increase thicknesses through the weekend. slightly warmer than yesterday.
But an upper low over British Columbia will drop a bit tonight and Saturday that will help destabilize things over eastern Montana.
Meanwhile, veered low level flow through the first part of the day will aid in bringing warmer air off the higher elevations to our west out into the Plains.
(This evening through Saturday) Water vapor imagery and upper-air observations show an upper ridge centered over North Texas today with subsidence warming/drying over West Texas resulting in slightly drier and warmer conditions across the forecast area.
Conditions will remain hot and dry inland, while a deepened and a relatively persistent marine layer keeps temperatures cooler along some portions of the immediate coast. Strong ridging will build into the region following a weak upper trough.
1243 PM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025 * Potential for isolated-scattered thunderstorms today as warm front lifts north.
104 PM EDT Fri Jul 18 2025 (Today and tonight) As the weak low pressure system moves farther into Louisiana, ridging will begin to build in from the east. Highs this afternoon will range from the lower 90s farther west to the mid 90s farther east.
southerly surface winds have brought in slightly warmer and more humid air across the region, in particular southwest Minnesota.
However, some model runs suggest an MCS could make it into our northeast counties overnight in west northwest flow aloft along the southern edge of the prevailing westerlies, aided by decent low level west southwesterly inflow south of an advancing cold front. The mean upper-level synoptic pattern indicates upper-level troughing to the northeast of the region, with a 590 dam ridge positioned over the Gulf Coast.
A quiet and pleasant day is on tap for the CWA today as high pressure provides us with dry conditions and a touch lower humidity. This will be short-lived, however, as southerly flow develops tonight, advecting much warmer/humid airmass that will set the stage for an active Saturday. The primary challenge in the near term is a multi-hazard event on Saturday, as the area will reside under a very unstable and moisture- rich environment out ahead of an approaching cold front. Cooler and drier air will filter in behind the front for Sun/Mon, providing a brief break from the active weather.
Upper-level high pressure will continue to be the biggest influence for the weather over the region allowing for more subsidence to occur and thus limiting chances for rain. The high temperatures are expected to generally range from the mid 90s to the lower triple digits.
Discussion: The large high pressure ridge in the mid and upper levels, centered off the east coast of FL today, will drift westward and be located just off the FL Gulf Coast by Saturday evening.
(Through Saturday) An upper level ridge will be building to our east as the weak tropical low dissipates over Louisiana today. Yet the high pressure will overall reduce PoPs for Saturday, with rain chances ranging from 30-40 percent. The high pressure will allow for warming temperatures as we head into the weekend.
(Rest of today and tonight) An MCV, which is progressing east-northeastward along the northwest periphery of the upper ridge, was quite prominent on visible satellite and radar imagery this morning over the Texas panhandle.
The upper air pattern is characterized by a strengthening upper level high across the south central plains and a weak upper low off the Baja peninsula. Infrared and water vapor imagery this morning showed southern Arizona was between an upper low off the northern Baja coast and an upper high centered over central Texas. This weekend: Southerly flow continues over the area with upper low over srn CA. Afternoon RH values in the low lying areas will be 20-30% through Friday decreasing to 17-25% over the weekend. In the higher terrain, RH will be around 30 to 50%.
Broad upper level ridging extends over Florida and the southeast U. On the surface, high pressure between the Bahamas and Bermuda ridges westward over Florida. This high pressure will bring in some slightly drier air as well, which will limit rain and storm coverage through the weekend.
Updated at 1251 PM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025 - Temperatures continue to warm up today and through the weekend as upper-level ridging builds. (This afternoon through Saturday night) Water vapor imagery depicts an upper-level ridge extending from the Arizona/New Mexico border to the east coast. This increase in thickness will allow for temperatures to be a few degrees warmer than yesterday with highs in the mid to upper 90s for most (80s in higher terrain). Thicknesses increase Saturday as ridging continues to build in from the southeastern CONUS. As such, afternoon highs are forecast to be a couple of degrees warmer at many locations.
With greater cloud cover and more humid conditions, the Brazos Valley and our southeastern counties will remain in the lower to mid 90s. For the rest of the region, mid-level ridging will keep subsidence in place with minimal clouds today. A tranquil night is in store with overnight temperatures in the lower to mid 70s. Mid-level ridging will strengthen tomorrow, leading to a slight increase in afternoon temperatures.
Tonight will be warm with lows in the low to mid 70s. High pressure will build into the area over the weekend, bringing primarily clear, hot weather. The last earnest chance for rain left in the forecast period will be Saturday morning and early afternoon as a mesoscale complex rides over the ridge of high pressure, primarily through St.
WV imagery indicates weak ridging aloft slowly building northward across the Western High Plains. Near the surface, a lee side trough of low pressure remains anchored in eastern Colorado. Near the surface, pooled moisture reinforced by prevailing southerlies will provide ample instability across western Kansas ahead of an approaching frontal boundary from the northwest while a trough axis remains anchored in extreme southeast Colorado. A little above normal temperatures are forecast Saturday as prevailing southerlies reinforce a warmer air mass with H85 temperatures well above 25C in central Kansas to a little above 30C near the Colorado line.
This will lead to somewhat higher max temperatures, in the lower 90s.
Tropical moisture continues to arrive across the local area throughout the day on Saturday as a mid to upper level trough moves across South Central Texas associated with the tropical disturbance that came onshore last night over southeastern Louisiana.
1238 PM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025 (Rest of Today and Tonight) A relatively cooler day is in store for the Tennessee Valley as ongoing cloud cover should dampen heating potential this afternoon. Low temperatures are forecast to drop into the low to mid 70s.
(Tonight) The low pressure system that has moved from the Gulf into the lower Mississippi Valley has continued to move northeastward, increasing southerly flow into the Tennessee Valley. Low temperatures should drop into the low to mid 70s.
Confidence in the forecast for today through the weekend is rather high, with the ridging underneath the TUTT cell as well as a drying moisture profile below 500 mb suggesting slight rain and thunder chances at best.
Breezy-gusty winds this afternoon and evening ahead of a dry cold front that will advance across the area this evening/early tonight.
Highs look to be in the lower 90s across the I-10 corridor, mid 90s across the Concho Valley, and upper 90s across the Big Country. Overnight lows will be in the lower 70s once again.
117 PM EDT Fri Jul 18 2025 Dry weather returns today with cooler temperatures and lower humidity expected.
Temperatures in western Montana will range from the upper 80s to low 90s, while north-central Idaho will see highs in the low 100s in the lower elevations. Saturday will be slightly coolerâpossibly even a few degrees below normalâbut will remain dry and breezy across the region.
(Rest of Today and Tonight) A relatively cooler day is in store for the Tennessee Valley as ongoing cloud cover should dampen heating potential this afternoon. Low temperatures are forecast to drop into the low to mid 70s.
232 PM EDT Fri Jul 18 2025 High pressure builds in from the west tonight and crests south of the region on Saturday.
Current surface analysis shows low pressure centered over central SD, with frontal boundary running through south central SD into western NE and central WY.
Arizona will remain somewhat "trapped" in an atypical pattern for the season, a quasi-permenent weak low to west and high pressure to the east. The low grade Monsoon continues.
Robust surface ridging stretches across the Florida Peninsula this evening, resulting in gentle to moderate easterly breezes across the Keys. Ridging will remain dominant through the overnight period. Expect overnight lows to be in the lower to mid 80s with dew points likely slipping into the mid 70s. Robust ridging will remain across the Florida Peninsula through the night.
Subtropical moisture continues to work north across the Four Corners along the western perimeter of broad high pressure anchored over the southern CONUS.
Rest of today: Aloft, a large anticyclone centered just north of the Bahamas with the ridge axis solidly in control across the forecast area. At the surface, high pressure just to our east over the western Atlantic will continue to drive low-lvl southerly flow. The weekend will feature ridging aloft over the western Atlantic prevailing over the local forecast area. Additionally high pressure will dominate at the surface.
A few showers and storms have been trying to pop up over the higher terrain areas from orographic convergence, but struggling to stay organized. Over the next few hours, midlevel positive vorticity advection in conjunction with upper level diffluence and a relative weakness in the midlevel will begin to interact with the low to midlevel moisture resulting in better dynamic forcing for scattered showers and storms. Over the weekend, southerly flow continues with the upper low moving into southern California and the high pressure centered over the southeast coast. By midweek, we see high pressure rebuilding into the Desert Southwest resulting in widespread moderate HeatRisk and notably lower chances for storms. Afternoon RH values in the low lying areas will be 20- 30% through Friday decreasing to 17-25% over the weekend. In the higher terrain, RH will be around 30 to 50%.
1008 PM EDT Fri Jul 18 2025 High pressure builds across the region overnight and crests south of the region Saturday.
600 PM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025 Updated at 558 PM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025 - Temperatures continue to warm up today and through the weekend as upper-level ridging builds. (This afternoon through Saturday night) Water vapor imagery depicts an upper-level ridge extending from the Arizona/New Mexico border to the east coast. This increase in thickness will allow for temperatures to be a few degrees warmer than yesterday with highs in the mid to upper 90s for most (80s in higher terrain). Thicknesses increase Saturday as ridging continues to build in from the southeastern CONUS. As such, afternoon highs are forecast to be a couple of degrees warmer at many locations.
Overnight low temperatures will only dip near or just below current dew points into the lower to middle 70s.
The main concerns revolve around elevated winds across all sites due to a passing cold front. 20-25kft SCT-BKN ceilings will accompany the cold front this evening, dissipating overnight but returning at KDLS/KYKM/KALW/KPSC late in the period.
It will be mild and humid overnight with lows in the low to mid 70s.
742 PM EDT Fri Jul 18 2025 (Through Saturday) An upper level ridge will be building to our east as the weak tropical low dissipates over Louisiana today. Yet the high pressure will overall reduce PoPs for Saturday, with rain chances ranging from 30-40 percent. The high pressure will allow for warming temperatures as we head into the weekend.
458 PM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025 (Tonight) The low pressure system that has moved from the Gulf into the lower Mississippi Valley has continued to move northeastward, increasing southerly flow into the Tennessee Valley. Low temperatures should drop into the low to mid 70s.
1144 PM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025 Updated at 1143 PM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025 - Temperatures continue to warm up today and through the weekend as upper-level ridging builds. (This afternoon through Saturday night) Water vapor imagery depicts an upper-level ridge extending from the Arizona/New Mexico border to the east coast. This increase in thickness will allow for temperatures to be a few degrees warmer than yesterday with highs in the mid to upper 90s for most (80s in higher terrain). Thicknesses increase Saturday as ridging continues to build in from the southeastern CONUS. As such, afternoon highs are forecast to be a couple of degrees warmer at many locations.
Cold front later today should be the main trigger for any storms that develop.
Temperatures this morning across the Keys are still in the lower 80s and are on track to reach highs in the upper 80s. The general pattern for the weekend will be dominated by ridging across the northeastern Gulf and sinking air aloft.
Each day has only slight changes synoptically leading to a more persistence forecast with trends hotter or cooler.
(Today and tonight) A broad upper level high is centered over the northern Gulf, and will be our main weather influence today and tonight. Temperatures are on a slow warming trend and expect highs this afternoon to be generally in the lower to mid 90s in the southern half of our area, in the mid 90s across our central counties, and in the mid to upper 90s in the Big Country. Overnight lows will be in the lower to mid 70s.