Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
(Today through Tuesday afternoon) An upper trough approaching the region today will bring strong winds, dust, and critical fire weather conditions. The base of this upper trough will pass overhead this afternoon during peak mixing. Stronger winds will diminish around sunset and switch to the north following another cold front.
123 AM EDT Mon May 19 2025 A reinforcing cold front will cross through the area tonight. High pressure will return for Monday and Tuesday. A reinforcing cold front comes in tonight, though the only impact will be decreasing dew points and drier air advecting in. Low pressure slowly pulls away through the Canadian Maritimes, and with a strong area of high pressure over Hudson Bay, edging down through the Great Lakes and into the Mid- Atlantic, a tight gradient remains. Canadian high pressure will mainly be in control though, bringing mostly sunny skies and temperatures generally in the low to mid 70s, which is right around normal for this time in May. Upper level ridging will keep a mostly clear sky and dry conditions across the region through Tuesday.
442 AM EDT Mon May 19 2025 High pressure will remain over the area into this evening. Low pressure will approach the area on Tuesday and move through Tuesday night bringing showers and thunderstorms to the region.
(Today and tonight) Ridging will build back over the area today, keeping temperatures above average with dry conditions once again. High temperatures this afternoon are forecast to climb into the lower to middle 90s away from the immediate coast.
- Drier and warmer for the second half of the week. Have opted to hold off on any Frost/Freeze headlines given the uncertainty in the sky cover as seen from last night, and temperatures borderline in the low 30s.
- Cool temperatures spill into the area behind the a cold front that pushes through Monday night with overall quiet weather conditions lasting through mid week.
We start dry today under the influence of upper ridging. Chances for rain and storms will be on the increase as early as tomorrow morning in the northwest with an approaching trough and associated cold front. Severe threat should end with the passage of the cold front through the evening hours Tuesday.
233 AM EDT Mon May 19 2025 -High pressure builds today, returning cool and dry conditions through Tuesday. Evening sounding depicted a very dry atmosphere above 700 mb due to midlevel ridging currently building from the west. The lower tier of counties (Manistee, Wexford, Roscommon, Gladwin) west of I-75 may push into the low to mid 60s, but otherwise temperatures well below normal for mid May continue for the next several days. Subsidence aloft clears cloud cover for the most part by Monday evening, which allows for subsequent radiational cooling processes to drop overnight low's to near freezing for interior northern parts. Midlevel troughing will be centered over the northern plains and continue to advect eastward this week.
- Cooler Tuesday and Tuesday night. A lull in activity is expected during the morning hours, but then storms could fire along the dryline, as well as the cold front, which will be slightly behind the dryline. Beyond these two days of severe weather, cooler air will settle in with highs in the 50s and 60s.
347 AM EDT Mon May 19 2025 - Colder than normal Temperatures This Week - Wet Pattern Midweek - Colder than normal Temperatures This Week Forecast remains fairly consistent as pattern change through this week continues to look cloudy and cooler, negatively tilted ridge with an infiltrating low extending moisture across the upper midwest and through the Great Lakes will keep northerly flow through the region allowing for cold air advection.
1050 PM MDT Sun May 18 2025 KEY MESSAGES: - Low pressure system will continue rain opportunities through Tuesday.
Large scale pattern features narrowed mid/upper ridging over the Upper Midwest as deepening troughing over the Rockies builds east. The ridge actually is expected to shift north of our CWA in response to a closed low passing south Monday and Tuesday, then westerly flow as the ridge eventually breaks down north and new broader ridging rebuilds over the central US. After the period of organized precipitation Monday and Tuesday, measurable rain chances become less certain as weaker/progressive waves would be favored and the ridge may hold stronger influence over our CWA.
- A Marginal Risk (1 of 5) for severe weather is in place for central Louisiana on Tuesday - An upper level ridge will keep any significant chance for rain out of the forecast until Tuesday afternoon/evening.
(Today and tonight) High pressure over the Eastern Pacific Ocean and a reinforcing upper- level trough over the Four Corners will be the driver of our weather today. High pressure in the Pacific Northwest and low pressure in the Desert Southwest will continue to support a surface pressure gradient that is conducive for northerly (drying) flow as pressure flows from high to low and wind follows suit in the isobars. Wind gusts of 40-50 mph can be expected along the immediate coastline, over the waters, and in the higher terrain with 25-35 mph expected elsewhere.
311 AM MDT Mon May 19 2025 - Rain with accumulating high mountain snow continues early today with cooler temperatures.
536 AM MDT Mon May 19 2025 - Cooler and windy with more showers/storms today and possibly Tuesday, but a much lower severe threat. - Warmer and drier for the rest of the work week. Additionally, a Denver Cyclone has helped initiate storms over Weld and Larimer Counties, where ping pong sized hail and 60 mph winds are currently being produced. Warmer and drier conditions are still on track from Tuesday onward, with portions of the plains seeing highs in the 80s by the end of the week.
541 AM MDT Mon May 19 2025 - Rain with accumulating high mountain snow continues early today with cooler temperatures.
613 AM CDT Mon May 19 2025 (Today through Tuesday) The influence of the subtropical ridge subsides into Tuesday, with a cold front approaching South Texas. Expect at least two more mid summer-like days across Deep South Texas today and tomorrow, with low pressure in the Plains enhancing the pressure gradient and maintaining a southeasterly breeze.
Otherwise, expect warmer temperatures than yesterday under mostly sunny skies.
644 AM EDT Mon May 19 2025 Canadian high pressure over the region will result in cool, dry weather through Tuesday.
A Pacific storm system will exit the area today, allowing for a drier and warmer pattern to develop for the remainder of the week.
622 AM CDT Mon May 19 2025 - Slightly cooler today and Tuesday.
(Today through Tuesday) A cold front moving through west TX at the moment will slam on brakes when it reaches a Dallas to San Antonio line while the convection produced will race ahead of it late today.
632 AM CDT Mon May 19 2025 - A Marginal Risk (1 of 5) for severe weather is in place for central Louisiana on Tuesday - An upper level ridge will keep any significant chance for rain out of the forecast until Tuesday afternoon/evening.
747 AM EDT Mon May 19 2025 - Colder than normal Temperatures This Week - Wet Pattern Midweek - Colder than normal Temperatures This Week Forecast remains fairly consistent as pattern change through this week continues to look cloudy and cooler, negatively tilted ridge with an infiltrating low extending moisture across the upper midwest and through the Great Lakes will keep northerly flow through the region allowing for cold air advection.
1004 AM EDT Mon May 19 2025 High pressure will remain over the area into this evening. Low pressure will approach the area on Tuesday and move through Tuesday night bringing showers and thunderstorms to the region.
357 AM MDT Mon May 19 2025 KEY MESSAGES: - Low pressure system will continue rain opportunities through Tuesday.
223 AM MST Mon May 19 2025 An exiting low pressure system will bring breezy to windy conditions today, especially through the Gila River Valley. In the upper levels a trough axis will be exiting east today, with southeastern Arizona under northwest to west flow through a moderately tight pressure gradient.
With ridging in place, subsidence will prevail leading to warm and dry conditions today through Tuesday.
358 AM MDT Mon May 19 2025 - Cooler and windy with more showers/storms today and possibly Tuesday, but a much lower severe threat. - Warmer and drier for the rest of the work week. Additionally, a Denver Cyclone has helped initiate storms over Weld and Larimer Counties, where ping pong sized hail and 60 mph winds are currently being produced. Warmer and drier conditions are still on track from Tuesday onward, with portions of the plains seeing highs in the 80s by the end of the week.
641 AM EDT Mon May 19 2025 Weak high pressure gives way to an approaching warm front as we head into Tuesday.
547 AM EDT Mon May 19 2025 (Today and tonight) Ridging will build back over the area today, keeping temperatures above average with dry conditions once again. High temperatures this afternoon are forecast to climb into the lower to middle 90s away from the immediate coast.
646 AM EDT Mon May 19 2025 -High pressure builds today, returning cool and dry conditions through Tuesday. Evening sounding depicted a very dry atmosphere above 700 mb due to midlevel ridging currently building from the west. The lower tier of counties (Manistee, Wexford, Roscommon, Gladwin) west of I-75 may push into the low to mid 60s, but otherwise temperatures well below normal for mid May continue for the next several days. Subsidence aloft clears cloud cover for the most part by Monday evening, which allows for subsequent radiational cooling processes to drop overnight low's to near freezing for interior northern parts. Midlevel troughing will be centered over the northern plains and continue to advect eastward this week.
Transitioning weather patterns continue as moisture makes its way into the area around the top of the ridge.
658 AM EDT Mon May 19 2025 High pressure will remain over the area into this evening. Low pressure will approach the area on Tuesday and move through Tuesday night bringing showers and thunderstorms to the region.
This morning's 12z sounding looks very similar to yesterdays with a majority of the moisture (while still not much of it) located in the lower levels. Deep layered ridging will continue to dominate our area through Tuesday and therefore no changes were necessary to our short term forecast. From synopsis, a dry pattern defined by a distant high pressure system in the central North Atlantic and lack of other major synoptic influences will lead to breezes shifting from light to moderate over the next few days.
Today: A broad and somewhat complex upper level trough/low (situated over the Rockies this morning) will progress east across the Central and Southern Plains this afternoon into tonight. Marginal instability and strong cyclonic shear vorticity (on the eastern periphery of the upper trough/low progressing east across the region) will foster the development of showers/storms in eastern CO and western KS this afternoon. A tight 850 mb height gradient on the southwest periphery of the low will foster 35-45 knot low-level flow over Nebraska and adjacent portions of Kansas, where unimpeded insolation and modest low-level cold advection will promote robust vertical mixing during the late morning and afternoon.
144 PM EDT Mon May 19 2025 - Colder than normal Temperatures This Week - Wet Pattern Midweek - Colder than normal Temperatures This Week Forecast remains fairly consistent as pattern change through this week continues to look cloudy and cooler, negatively tilted ridge with an infiltrating low extending moisture across the upper midwest and through the Great Lakes will keep northerly flow through the region allowing for cold air advection.
- Cooler temperatures for mid to late week with drier conditions. Aloft there is a digging trof across the Rockies with a leading closed low over the northern Plains with a secondary embedded trof over Utah moving towards the Four Corners region. Across our area we have a warm front lifting north today and even though we have warm air advection in place, we should stay mainly dry this afternoon and evening. Strengthening mid level and upper level flow with help initiate convection along with the trof aloft and at the sfc passing through. The front will be through the area by Tuesday night with cooler temperatures for mid to late week.
From a synoptic perspective, this system provides a ton of lift as a negatively tilted longwave trough enhances surface cyclogenesis over the Plains.
323 PM CDT Mon May 19 2025 Tonight through Tuesday night: A severe weather event is expected to impact the forecast area from late Tuesday through much of Tuesday night ahead of an approaching cold front.
Mostly sunny skies and light winds this morning led to colder temperatures and areas of patchy frost across the lower valleys. Sufficient moisture and instability along the associated cold front will support a 50% chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms across southeast Oregon and the West Central Mountains. The front exits the region late tonight, but a few showers may linger over the higher terrain into Tuesday afternoon.
The forecast was updated this morning to better account for the extent of light showers, mainly from the coastal waters to the Cascades, with a few also possibly extending into the Highway 97 corridor of Klamath County.
Weather will remain quiet tonight as the local area remains loosely under the influence of an upper level ridge. The ridge will flatten and shift eastward Tuesday in response to an upper trough swinging into the middle Mississippi Valley. This trough will also force a front toward the local area late Tuesday, stalling near the coast Tuesday night. (Technically is a cold front, but let's be real, there's nothing cold about it.
Late this evening, a cold front will track south across the area. The main effects from this front will be slightly cooler temperatures along with a wind shift to the north. Highs on Tuesday will be several degrees cooler than forecast highs today behind the aforementioned cold front. Highs will be in the low to mid 80s across the Big Country to the upper 80s to lower 90s elsewhere.
The upper level trough/low that sent the frontal system across Washington today has stalled along the BC coast. This low will eject another wave across the area this evening into early Tuesday bringing another uptick in shower activity.
High pressure at the surface coupled with ridging aloft will keep the above average temperatures and rain-free conditions around through mid week. With high temperatures in the low to mid 90s and some apparent temperatures reaching triple digits, it will be important to stay hydrated and take breaks if working outside.
- Severe thunderstorms that do form in this environment will be capable of all hazards with the highest probability of large hail, EF2+ strength tornadoes, and damaging winds further northwest into Oklahoma.
(This afternoon through Tuesday) Other than an isolated shower in our northeast, we're finally seeing a break in the rain and storms this afternoon as a ridge axis passes over the area. Temperatures will only fall into the lower 70s. Heights will begin to fall tomorrow as a negatively tilted upper- level trough begins to rotate across the Ozarks and towards the Midwest.
One more dry day today as high amplitude mid/upper level ridge remains locked over the Great Lakes with upper low remaining well to our west. Bulk of tonight will remain dry as well with elevated warm front and theta-e surge not arriving until right around 12Z Tue AM. 75 inches on Tue with the highest amounts south of US-30. Central CONUS upper low then merges with a developing Quebec upper low on Wed.
Otherwise, expect warmer temperatures than yesterday under mostly sunny skies. Breezy northwesterly to northeasterly winds continue across the region today as the trough responsible for the unsettled weekend weather exits to the east. Mid-level moisture and northwesterly flow aloft on the back side of the departing trough will somewhat temper warming today, but despite it, a significant warming trend is still underway. Highs today are expected to top out in the 70s and 80s for most, with 60s in the mountains and 90s through Death Valley and along the Colorado River, several degrees warmer than yesterday, but still a few degrees below normal for mid-May.
The presence of warmer than normal 850mb temps around 20-22 degrees C (which is just below 2 standard deviations of climatology for this time of year) and above normal PWATs around 1.
1149 AM MDT Mon May 19 2025 - Cooler and windy with more showers/storms today and possibly Tuesday, but a much lower severe threat. - Warmer and drier for the rest of the work week. Additionally, a Denver Cyclone has helped initiate storms over Weld and Larimer Counties, where ping pong sized hail and 60 mph winds are currently being produced. Warmer and drier conditions are still on track from Tuesday onward, with portions of the plains seeing highs in the 80s by the end of the week.
1214 PM CDT Mon May 19 2025 - A Marginal Risk (1 of 5) for severe weather is in place for central Louisiana on Tuesday - An upper level ridge will keep any significant chance for rain out of the forecast until Tuesday afternoon/evening.
233 PM MDT Mon May 19 2025 - Warmer and drier for the rest of the work week. The lower 30s forecast for the Palmer Divide warrants a Frost Advisory there from 3-8 am Tuesday. The rest of the work week will then feature mainly dry and warmer weather, although a few opportunities will still exist for a few showers.
Upper low continues to churn across the northern tier of the western high plains early this afternoon while strong southwesterly flow and embedded vort maxes stream northeast into the region. Low level shear initially in the afternoon is around 20 kts before decreasing temporarily until the low level jet increases with values to around 30 kts after 23Z as storms off the dryline approach. Latest 12Z guidance signals a third round of scattered storms with the cold front, however confidence is low on severity of these storms, especially given the more worked over environment from previous convection. Upper low remains stalled across the northern plains, resulting in dry northwesterly flow aloft through mid week.
1252 PM MDT Mon May 19 2025 - Cooler and windy with more showers/storms today and possibly Tuesday, but a much lower severe threat. - Warmer and drier for the rest of the work week. Additionally, a Denver Cyclone has helped initiate storms over Weld and Larimer Counties, where ping pong sized hail and 60 mph winds are currently being produced. Warmer and drier conditions are still on track from Tuesday onward, with portions of the plains seeing highs in the 80s by the end of the week.
204 PM EDT Mon May 19 2025 High pressure will remain over the area into this evening. Low pressure will approach the area on Tuesday and move through Tuesday night bringing showers and thunderstorms to the region.
349 PM EDT Mon May 19 2025 A warm front will approach the area tonight and extend near the Ohio River on Tuesday.
Regional radars indicating scattered to numerous showers and embedded thunderstorms over and near the higher terrain into the I-25 Corridor, with SPC meso-analysis indicating up to 1000 j/kg of SBCAPE across the plains at this time. Drier air behind the the passing upper trough will allow for clearing skies through the evening and into the overnight. This along with decoupled winds, will lead to chilly overnight lows in the 30s to low 40s across the Plains, with 20s and 30s expected across the higher terrain. Warmer and drier conditions remain on tap for tomorrow, under mostly sunny skies. Temperatures to warm into the 60s to lower 70s across the Plains and mainly in the 50s and 60s across the higher terrain.
142 PM EDT Mon May 19 2025 -High pressure builds today, returning cool and dry conditions through Tuesday. Evening sounding depicted a very dry atmosphere above 700 mb due to midlevel ridging currently building from the west. The lower tier of counties (Manistee, Wexford, Roscommon, Gladwin) west of I-75 may push into the low to mid 60s, but otherwise temperatures well below normal for mid May continue for the next several days. Subsidence aloft clears cloud cover for the most part by Monday evening, which allows for subsequent radiational cooling processes to drop overnight low's to near freezing for interior northern parts. Midlevel troughing will be centered over the northern plains and continue to advect eastward this week.
Warming trend and areas of Moderate HeatRisk in the Valley expected through the middle of the week as ridging aloft briefly settles in.
A warm front will lift northward through the forecast area late morning into the afternoon followed by a cold front sweeping across the region in the evening to early overnight hours. Overall, higher confidence in more scattered to widespread severe weather will be associated with the cold front in the evening.
335 PM EDT Mon May 19 2025 -Dry through Tuesday as high pressure builds. ranging from the upper 40s to near 50 along the Lake Huron shore, warming as one heads west, peaking in the lower 60s across the western CWA courtesy of downsloping.
pdf High pressure ridging over the forecast area will result in mostly dry weather conditions throughout the afternoon and into tonight, with a slight chance for light isolated showers forming today with the most likely areas for convection occurring over coastal northeast Florida counties south of Duval.
Much warmer and drier conditions arrive by Tuesday and for the rest of the week. A trough of low pressure is pushing into New Mexico this afternoon with a few lingering showers over Apache and far northern Navajo counties.
204 PM EDT Mon May 19 2025 Weak high pressure gives way to an approaching warm front heading into Tuesday.
(Through Tuesday) Mid level ridging over the area tonight will begin to shift southeastward towards the Peninsula on Tuesday as the next frontal system pushes eastward across the Mississippi Valley.
157 PM CDT Mon May 19 2025 - Wet weather will become more continuous tonight as the main synoptic low pressure moves northeast, resulting in rainfall of 1-2 inches in most locations. - Conditional severe weather threat (level 1/2 out of 5) modulated by the location of a warm front tonight and tomorrow, with large hail and damaging winds the primary threats tonight.
Issued by National Weather Service Gaylord MI 356 PM EDT Mon May 19 2025 - Cooler than normal conditions dominate this week; frost will be possible over interior areas.
Still, residual boundary layer moisture, and cooling midlevel temperatures, will result in modest instablity through this evening as the primary trough axis passes overhead.
1236 PM CDT Mon May 19 2025 - Slightly cooler today and Tuesday.
736 PM EDT Mon May 19 2025 A warm front will approach the area tonight and extend near the Ohio River on Tuesday.
With the Tennessee Valley sitting underneath a mid- level ridge, dry weather is forecast for the rest of tonight. A cold front to its south will sweep across the MS/TN River Valleys during the afternoon and evening hours. Ahead of the approaching cold front, a very unstable airmass with 2000-3000 J/kg and 50 kts of deep layer shear indicate the potential for severe storms. The tornado threat appears greatest during the evening hours as the low level jet ramps up across NW AL and intensifying the low level shear. Behind the cold front, a slightly cooler and drier airmass begins to filter into the area.
621 PM CDT Mon May 19 2025 The upper level ridge over the area will continue to weaken and move east as an upper trough approaches from the west.
Scattered showers in the wake of an exiting front will persist this evening into tonight due to an upper level low off the Canadian coast.
- Cooler (60s and lower 70s), windy (gusts 35 to 40 MPH) and dry across the area tomorrow.
726 PM EDT Mon May 19 2025 (Through Tuesday) Mid level ridging over the area tonight will begin to shift southeastward towards the Peninsula on Tuesday as the next frontal system pushes eastward across the Mississippi Valley.