Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
High pressure continues to promote clear/calm conditions -- with good radiational cooling allowing predawn temperatures to drop into the upper 20s to lower 30s. Just to our north and west, broken plumes of mid/high clouds associated with an approaching trough from the west are doing a pirouette around the western and northern fringes of our forecast area.
Lusk (This afternoon through Tuesday) 500 mb analysis reveals weak ridging over Georgia this afternoon. Visible satellite imagery shows a cloudless sky over the majority of the forecast area, as well as an area of low pressure swirling well off the east coast of Florida with a feed of low-level clouds spreading into the southeast portion of the forecast area. The airmass in place across much of the Southeast will warm tomorrow (Tuesday) given a steady-as-she-goes forecast of quasi- zonal flow aloft, high pressure at the surface, and a clear sky. Highs are expected to be in the mid-50s to lower 60s -- some 5-10 degrees warmer than today.
1029 PM MST Mon Dec 23 2024 - A few snow showers will be possible tonight over portions of the higher terrain, mainly over the central mountains, but will continue to taper off by tomorrow morning.
High temps will reach the low to mid 30s today and mid 30s for Christmas Day.
1205 AM CST Tue Dec 24 2024 - Areas of fog and freezing fog will be possible overnight and a dense fog advisory goes into effect for portions of south central Nebraska at 11 PM this evening.
We also have some significant radiation fog in western to central Minnesota which has dropped visibility below a mile in many locations, and with temperatures below freezing could result in some slick travel this morning especially for elevated surfaces such as bridges. An upper level ridge will slide through over the next few days with southerly surface winds at 5-10mph ensuring some steady low level WAA from areas with less snow cover to our south. Subsidence from the ridge will not be strong enough to get rid of the low stratus with plentiful saturation due to the snowpack we are carrying and lower level forcing from the WAA.
Temperatures are on track to reach the upper 70s for afternoon highs today, which is on the order of 10 to 15 degrees warmer than normal for this time of year. Today will be the last day for temperatures of this magnitude, as the upper ridge axis will shift back over us. A weak cold front from the west will bring mid to high level clouds late this afternoon that will clear out over night. Cooler weather is on its way for Christmas Day as an eastern Pacific storm system moves inland, and tracks eastward along the UT/AZ state line.
While the temperature and moisture gradients broaden, upper ridging will build across the area.
So far, visibility has dropped to mainly a half mile or mile at the lowest, but we have seen drops to about a quarter mile in some spots like Idaho Falls. Late tonight through tomorrow morning will be dry as upper ridging slides through Idaho ahead of the next system. Below 6200ft elevation, temperatures will be rising each afternoon above freezing, making for a sloppy mess at the lower elevations.
1226 AM EST Tue Dec 24 2024 A quick hitting system will bring rain and snow to the area overnight with snow accumulation north of Pittsburgh and a freezing rain threat to the West Virginia ridges today. KEY MESSAGES: - Quick shot of precipitation returns tonight with accumulating snow in the I-80 corridor and ridges. The exception will be over the higher elevations were probs are greater than 40% for measurable precip. With the loss of moisture aloft and the DGZ layer above the saturated layer, this should lead to more of a freezing rain/freezing drizzle threat as surface temperatures remain at or below freezing in these locales. -------------------------------------------------------------------- Heights rises are expected on Wednesday, which will also allow warmer air to spread across the area.
(Tuesday through Wednesday night) Dry weather conditions on Tuesday as high pressure conditions and a cool mostly westerly flow remains in place through the day. Flow will shift to become more out of the southwest by Wednesday as high pressure ridging moves off to the northeast, resulting in slightly warmer temperatures and increased chances for precipitation for areas along the coast and east of the I-75 corridor. High temperatures for Tuesday and Wednesday will be in the 60s for southeast Georgia and most of northeast Florida, with temps rising into the lower 70s over north central Florida.
Temperatures are in the low to mid 40s in most places early this morning and should only dip slightly through daybreak. Temperatures may briefly reach the low 50s in southern KY. Highs in the lower 50s on Wednesday will be about 7 to 10 degrees above normal.
Downstream of this trough, clouds will increase across the area late today into Wednesday. Highs today warm into the low to mid 60s inland.
(Today and tonight) Key Messages: Warmer today with increasing cloud coverage Discussion: Currently we're seeing temperatures near or just below freezing across much of the area early this morning. Once the sun rises temperatures will quickly climb back above freezing and another calm weather day is in store this Christmas Eve. High temperatures will be a few degrees warmer than what we experienced yesterday with light winds expected again.
Enough moisture exists for patchy fog Tuesday morning in the lower Treasure and Long Valley. The next system is slated to move into eastern Oregon and southwest Idaho for the latter half of Tuesday with a mix of rain/snow for the lower valleys and snow above 6000 feet.
238 AM EST Tue Dec 24 2024 Low pressure will track along the coast today then continue east across Nova Scotia tonight.
300 AM EST Tue Dec 24 2024 Weak low pressure will move northeast along the North Carolina coast today.
- Warmer weather is expected late this week into the weekend as high temperatures build into the 40s and eventually lower 50s in many cases. Lingering flurries may dot the Thumb region today within developing northeast low level flow in the wake of this passing low pressure system. Otherwise, the western edge of large high pressure centered well to the east will provide mainly dry conditions for the most part. Low pressure continues to exit into the southern Ontario peninsula early this morning with lingering light snow/rain showers coming to an end in the system's cold frontal wake. Weak trailing gradient flow holds winds AOB 15 knots and waves AOB 4 feet as a pair of high pressure centers build southeast from the Upper Midwest and south- central Ontario.
A slight weakness in that ridge over the Atlantic coast of central Florida could allow for a localized area of low pressure to develop off the Space Coast and move northward through the day.
1044 PM CST Mon Dec 23 2024 (Tonight through Tuesday night) Our region will be under the influence of zonal flow aloft ahead of a developing trough extending southward across the Plains with a developing low near the TX/OK border. The low will dig further southeast Tuesday night before lifting northeast during the long- term period. This weak cold front will approach our CWA Christmas morning. Highs over the next two days will generally range in the mid 70s near the coast to the low to mid 80s across the Brush Country/Rio Grande Plains. Overnight lows ranging in the 60s across the region tonight will be a few degrees cooler tomorrow night.
A deepening upper level trough moving across Texas will send a cold front across South Central Texas late this afternoon into tonight. In wake of the frontal passage, Christmas Day/Wednesday will feature continued above average, though cooler temperatures, as well as reduced humidities.
1248 AM EST Tue Dec 24 2024 An area of low pressure off the east coast of Florida will move northward toward the area tonight. The low will be east of Cape Fear Tuesday then move farther offshore. The low will lead to increasing clouds and rain chances tonight and continuing into Tuesday. Rain chances will be low for the remainder of the week as high pressure from the north lingers across the area.
Southeasterlies in the low levels of the atmosphere are directing layers of moist, tropical air over cooler waters of Hawk Channel and Florida Bay which are supporting the persistent layers of cloud cover. The 12Z morning sounding measured a PWAT value about halfway between the 50th and 75th percentile, primarily below 800 mb, and indicated the low cloud layer was capped around 7 to 8 kft.
530 AM EST Tue Dec 24 2024 A cold front will move south across the Mid Atlantic region today then dissipate over North Carolina tonight.
Weak ridging will be in place over C AL with overall light winds.
Zonal flow aloft currently will amplify a bit and place mid level ridging overhead overnight tonight, although no noticeable impact is expected.
621 AM EST Tue Dec 24 2024 Weak low pressure will move northeast along the North Carolina coast today.
933 AM EST Tue Dec 24 2024 Low pressure will track along the coast today then continue east across Nova Scotia tonight.
The highest totals will be over the mountains north of I-80 with the heaviest precipitation late this morning into the early afternoon.
622 AM EST Tue Dec 24 2024 Low pressure will track along the coast today then continue east across Nova Scotia tonight.
629 AM EST Tue Dec 24 2024 An area of low pressure will track northeast off the Carolina coast today. High pressure will settle over the area on Christmas Day. A cold front will approach the region this weekend. The low is expected to start lifting to the northeast by mid to late morning and the back edge of the light precipitation shield will finally clear the far eastern portion of the forecast area by around midday. Further east, including the Tri- County, highs will likely top out in the low 50s. Tonight: The wedge of high pressure will become re-established and a dry and chilly night is expected. High pressure will provide quiet and dry weather for Christmas Day.
624 AM EST Tue Dec 24 2024 (Today and tonight) Key Messages: Warmer today with increasing cloud coverage Discussion: Currently we're seeing temperatures near or just below freezing across much of the area early this morning. Once the sun rises temperatures will quickly climb back above freezing and another calm weather day is in store this Christmas Eve. High temperatures will be a few degrees warmer than what we experienced yesterday with light winds expected again.
649 AM EST Tue Dec 24 2024 A cold front will move south across the Mid Atlantic region today then dissipate over North Carolina tonight.
A trough moving through the southern Plains will continue to move eastward throughout the day, bringing increased cloud cover through the evening hours tonight.
441 AM EST Tue Dec 24 2024 - Drier and warmer conditions expected behind the early week system for Christmas Eve and Christmas Day. Current water vapor imagery/RAP analysis early this morning shows yesterday's clipper system now over New England with high pressure centered over the Great Lakes Region. This trough moves into the southern plains 00z Fri and into the Ozarks 12z Fri. This could go into forming low clouds which might hold temperatures down a bit during the day and keep lows warmer at night. Could be a little freezing rain in a few places Thu night. In the extended, the GFS and ECMWF show a 500 mb ridge in the ern U.
951 AM EST Tue Dec 24 2024 The weak area of low pressure that generated a widespread snowfall last night will now exit across New England, while Canadian high pressure will move in to dominate our weather through much of the remainder of the week. High pressure extending across our region from Quebec and the Saint Lawrence valley will then guarantee fair uneventful weather for Christmas eve through Christmas Day, although a fair amount of clouds will persist over the western counties. Canadian sourced high pressure will continue to ever so slowly meander east Wednesday night, all while maintaining dry weather for the rest of the week. On the western edge of the slow departing ridge.
306 AM MST Tue Dec 24 2024 - Active pattern expected mid-week onwards with daily chances for snow in the mountains and small chances for some snow across the lower elevations.
437 AM MST Tue Dec 24 2024 - Active pattern expected mid-week onwards with daily chances for snow in the mountains and small chances for some snow across the lower elevations.
(Today through Wednesday) Winds will be coming around to a SE direction with some added moisture today but mixing is heightened from an inverted trough moving through the gulf with the northern extention into the southern portion of the area, so more than likely this will result in a strat deck off the ground for tonight/Christmas morning. SE winds continue to bring a supply of moisture to the area beneath this inversion late Wed with a developing frontal inversion in the lowest sfc layer(~1kft).
There is some trapped low level moisture and areas of fog in Grand County and a few flurries clinging to the mountain ridges, and these could take a while to dissipate this morning. There could be some light snow on the ridges again by morning, but more likely it will start a few hours later than that. Holiday overview: (5)00mb winds shift southwesterly as the next upper level trough approaches Christmas Day.
725 AM EST Tue Dec 24 2024 - Drier and warmer conditions expected behind the early week system for Christmas Eve and Christmas Day. Current water vapor imagery/RAP analysis early this morning shows yesterday's clipper system now over New England with high pressure centered over the Great Lakes Region. This trough moves into the southern plains 00z Fri and into the Ozarks 12z Fri. This could go into forming low clouds which might hold temperatures down a bit during the day and keep lows warmer at night. Could be a little freezing rain in a few places Thu night. In the extended, the GFS and ECMWF show a 500 mb ridge in the ern U.
- Warmer weather is expected late this week into the week as high temperature build into the 40s and eventually lower 50s in many cases. Lingering flurries may dot the Thumb region today within developing northeast low level flow in the wake of this passing low pressure system. Otherwise, the western edge of large high pressure centered well to the east will provide mainly dry conditions for the most part. Low pressure continues to exit into the southern Ontario peninsula early this morning with lingering light snow/rain showers coming to an end in the system's cold frontal wake. Weak trailing gradient flow holds winds AOB 15 knots and waves AOB 4 feet as a pair of high pressure centers build southeast from the Upper Midwest and south- central Ontario.
The high temperature forecast for today ranges from the lower 30s north and east of the Missouri River to the upper 40s in the southwest corner of the state. Despite the increased clouds, it should still be a milder day with highs in the lower 30s to lower 40s.
Starting late Wednesday, lee side troughing and high pressure in Yellowstone park will lead to a strong pressure gradient.
However, the threat for light snow and freezing rain will continue over the ridges into the afternoon. - Threat for light snow or freezing rain in the ridges will continue into the afternoon. There shouldn't be much concern for ice in the lowlands with this batch as observations have temperatures above the freezing mark this morning. Over the higher elevations, probabilities still remain high for measurable freezing rain through this afternoon. With the loss of moisture aloft and the DGZ layer above the saturated layer, this should lead to more of a freezing rain/freezing drizzle threat as surface temperatures remain at or below freezing in these locales, so the Winter Weather Advisory remains in place for the ridges. -------------------------------------------------------------------- Heights rises are expected on Wednesday, which will also allow warmer air to spread across the area.
627 AM EST Tue Dec 24 2024 The weak area of low pressure that generated a widespread snowfall while Canadian high pressure will move in to dominate our weather through much of the rest of the week. High pressure extending across our region from Quebec and the Saint Lawrence valley will then guarantee fair uneventful weather for Christmas eve through Christmas Day. Canadian sourced high pressure will continue to ever so slowly meander east Wednesday night, all while maintaining dry weather for the rest of the week. On the western edge of the slow departing ridge.
A mid to upper level trough will deepen as it transitions into the Southern Plains tonight pushing a frontal boundary into the region by Christmas morning. Aside from this, expect warm and humid conditions to prevail trough Christmas Day.
Temperatures were solidly in the lower 40s with some upper 30s over southeast KY. Temperatures are in the low to mid 40s in most places early this morning and should only dip slightly through daybreak. Temperatures may briefly reach the low 50s in southern KY. Highs in the lower 50s on Wednesday will be about 7 to 10 degrees above normal.
222 PM EST Tue Dec 24 2024 Exiting low pressure over northern New York early this afternoon will continue to exit east into New England tonight. Low pressure centered over northern New York early this afternoon, will continue to exit east into New England tonight. High pressure will extend east into the eastern Great Lakes tonight and into the Saint Lawrence Valley Christmas. Canadian sourced high pressure will continue to ever so slowly meander east Wednesday night, all while maintaining dry weather for the rest of the week. On the western edge of the slow departing ridge.
An 850 mb ridge axis will shift east across the upper Ohio Valley tonight. With some backing low level flow on the back side of this, we have seen some erosion in the lower clouds to our southwest this afternoon. However, a fair amount of low level moisture remains trapped below this ridge so there is some uncertainty as to whether or not any of this clearing will make it much more into our area as we head into this evening. We will again only see a few degree rise in temperatures with highs on Wednesday in the low to mid 40s.
High pressure north of the region will drift east out into the western Atlantic Ocean over the next day or so as a weak area of low pressure off the southeast U.
127 PM EST Tue Dec 24 2024 Cool and dry high pressure will settle to our northeast tonight and Wednesday, with mostly dry conditions and temps remaining a bit below normal, though not nearly as cold as recent days.
The fog in Middle Park has lifted this morning and the low clouds may dissipate soon. There is some trapped low level moisture and areas of fog in Grand County and a few flurries clinging to the mountain ridges, and these could take a while to dissipate this morning. There could be some light snow on the ridges again by morning, but more likely it will start a few hours later than that. Holiday overview: (5)00mb winds shift southwesterly as the next upper level trough approaches Christmas Day.
1005 AM EST Tue Dec 24 2024 Weak low pressure will move northeast along the North Carolina coast today.
* Dry, cooler weather prevails on Christmas with additional storms late this week into the weekend. Wind gusts are still possible up to 30 mph across the area, with locally higher gusts along the ridges in the Sierra and valley wind prone areas. If the sun peeks out behind these clouds in time, the risk of water freezing on the roads tonight will greatly diminish. Sierra valley locations, such as Truckee, have a 40% chance of freezing fog early tomorrow morning.
There is a much weaker, moisture starved northern stream trough moving in tandem with the southern system, but is progged to dissipate as it moves east into the upper ridging over the Great Lakes.
A cold front will bring rain and high-elevation snow showers late tonight into Christmas Day.
Mid-level ridging currently extends across the FL Peninsula from over the Carribean, which is combining with a lingering pocket of dry air (PWAT values 1. Tonight's low temperatures will range from the mid 50s west of Lake O, to the low 60s across interior and SW FL, and the mid to upper 60s across SE FL.
Therefore, the Winter Weather Advisories for the higher elevations have been cancelled early. Nonetheless, there can still be some isolated slick spots or pockets of freezing drizzle, especially on the higher ridgetops, so please use caution the rest of today. A 500-mb ridge of high pressure will build into the area Christmas Day, which will allow temperatures to rebound into the upper 40s and lower 50s across much of the area.
143 PM EST Tue Dec 24 2024 A cold front will move south across the Mid Atlantic region today then dissipate over North Carolina tonight.
257 PM EST Tue Dec 24 2024 Exiting low pressure over northern New York early this afternoon will continue to exit east into New England tonight. Low pressure centered over northern New York early this afternoon, will continue to exit east into New England tonight. High pressure will extend east into the eastern Great Lakes tonight and into the Saint Lawrence Valley Christmas.
1148 AM CST Tue Dec 24 2024 (Today through Wednesday) Winds will be coming around to a SE direction with some added moisture today but mixing is heightened from an inverted trough moving through the gulf with the northern extension into the southern portion of the area, so more than likely this will result in a strat deck off the ground for tonight/Christmas morning. SE winds continue to bring a supply of moisture to the area beneath this inversion late Wed with a developing frontal inversion in the lowest sfc layer(~1kft).
Patchy freezing drizzle is possible Christmas morning along and north of Interstate 80. Therefore, combined with a low sun angle and northeast to east winds, the low stratus will remain socked in across the forecast area. As the cloud deck lowers even more late tonight into Christmas, can't rule out patchy drizze/freezing drizzle. An upper level trough passing to our southeast may also spread some light rain into our far southeast counties (Macomb to Princeton, IL) but probabilities are only around 20 percent). Due to the low stratus the diurnal temperature spread will be small with lows tonight in the upper 20s to lower 30s, and highs on Christmas in the mid 30s to around 40.
248 PM EST Tue Dec 24 2024 Cool and dry high pressure will settle to our northeast tonight and Wednesday, yielding dry conditions and temps remaining a bit below normal, though not nearly as cold as recent days.
119 PM EST Tue Dec 24 2024 A cold front will move south across the Mid Atlantic region today then dissipate over North Carolina tonight.
A broad upper level ridge lingers over the Caribbean while a trough starts to deepen over Texas. In the short term, a slowly approaching trough in the Gulf and a building ridge in the Caribbean will build the subtropical jet and shift its right entrance region towards the Keys.
(Remainder of today and tonight) A low amplitude ridge at the 500-mb level will translate eastward and away from the TN Valley this afternoon/evening, in advance of an amplifying southern stream trough that will dig southeastward across central TX throughout the near term period. Lows will generally be in the u20s-l30s, with spotty freezing fog possible in the river valleys of northeast AL.
339 PM EST Tue Dec 24 2024 A few flurries or spotty freezing drizzle is still possible through this evening, mainly near the Finger Lakes.