Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1025 PM MDT Sat May 18 2024 - Warmer Sunday with thunderstorms. Water vapor shows upper low along the ND/Canadian border, flat ridge over the Northern Rockies, and upper low over southwest BC. Warm front will lift back into the area after midnight tonight, with 50kt low level jet and decent theta-e advection resulting in a few late night showers/storms in our eastern and northern SD zones. On Sunday, upper low currently over southwest BC will dig into the Northern Rockies, with southwest flow aloft through the Northern Plains and temps rebounding into the 70s to mid 80s behind passage of warm front. Cold front will work into far western during the afternoon, with MLCAPE of 1000-2000J/kg. Next upper trof digs a little further south across the Intermountain West on Monday.
1256 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024 (Tonight through Monday) Thunderstorms developed along a low level instability gradient and the influence of an upper level low northwest. As the upper trough/low continues eastward overnight, drier air will begin filtering in. Temperatures are expected to be cooler than last night. The combination of the rain the past 24-48 hours and skies decreasing in clouds and cooler temps will lead to some patchy fog.
Showers and storms have just about ended northern two thirds of the area but still an area in the south closer to upper low spinning across northern AL at this hour. Tomorrow should be much drier for most of the area as the trough axis will be centered along the spine of the Appalachian and eastward.
High pressure will settle across the Mid-South later this morning leading to benign weather with increasing temperatures into the upper 80s to lower 90s to begin our workweek.
Synoptically, a trough currently digging into northeastern WA will continue to dig into the Great Basin region through Monday, which will create northwesterly flow overhead today. As this trough phases with a closed upper-low which will be off the SoCal coast Monday, pressure gradients across NorCal will increase tonight- Monday, producing another breezy north wind day.
1122 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024 Evening satellite imagery depicts the last wisps of cirrus wrapped around an upper low pressure system exiting into Middle TN. Expect a calm and benign evening otherwise with temperatures in the lower 60s.
Discussion: We start the period with the upper trough axis just to our east and ridging to our west. We will see rising heights over the region as the upper ridge builds in and the trough continues to pull away.
Ample sunshine will help push temperatures into the low to mid 80s by the afternoon hours, despite the light northeasterly flow.
(Today through Monday) 500 mb high pressure centered along the west coast of Mexico will build northeast during the period, and will become more dominant over the BRO CWFA. Will likely cover the higher heat indices on Monday with a Special Weather Statement at that time.
A back door trough will be moving through today, this can actually be seen in radar returns this morning just to the NE of the area. We are calling this a trough since there is only weak air mass change, and the only change is found in PW values as they drop from around 1.
1209 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024 (This evening through Sunday) Tonight will bring mild and clear conditions as the upper-level ridge still remains over us. Into tomorrow, the upper- level ridge will move towards the east ahead of a broad upper-level trough located in the Pacific Northwest. While the northern extent of the Low should keep the precipitation outside of our CWA, a dryline will form extending all the way down to the Mexican border.
301 AM EDT Sun May 19 2024 Expect a few lingering showers and thunderstorms today for the mountains, otherwise cool high pressure will build in from the east.
- Cooler with frost concerns mid week. in a pattern characterized by a rather weak/broad/ill-consolidated lee cyclone in southeast CO.
1240 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024 (This evening through Sunday) Hot and dry conditions will prevail across the area through Sunday as the area remains under short wave ridging aloft. Skies will be mainly clear through tomorrow, with overnight lows in the upper 60s tonight, with highs tomorrow afternoon similar to today, ranging from the low to mid 90s east, to the upper 90s to near 100 west.
A quiet, dry, and sunny day is expected across the ArkLaMiss region as an upper/mid level ridge migrate towards the area from the southwest. Clear skies and quiet conditions will continue into the evening with overnight temperatures ranging from the lower 60s to near 70 degrees in the Delta region.
Cooler temperatures across northern NV today, with light rain showers possible in White Pine county and SE Elko county. The cooler air expands south across central NV on Monday, with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across the eastern half of NV in the late afternoon and early evening hours.
The disturbance moving across our region will help to lower temperatures today several degrees from yesterday's highs in the lower 100s, while winds will become breezier over much of the area. Both of these features will enhance winds further with wind gusts Monday afternoon and early evening likely reaching 25-35 mph across south-central Arizona to 30-45 mph across the western deserts of southeast California through the the Lower CO River Valley. Temperatures will continue to trend downward on Monday with afternoon highs mostly in the lower 90s, or a couple degrees below normal. The broad troughing over the Western U.
Slight upper level troughing and gusty conditions over the coastal waters will keep the marine layer more mixed and keep stratus confined closer to the coast.
Deep layer W-SW flow over the peninsula this morning south of a trough aloft extending from the Mid-Atlantic SW to the N Gulf Coast and an attendant frontal boundary draped across the SE U.
An upper level trough will move east of the region this afternoon and a weak upper level ridge will give drier and somewhat warmer conditions on Monday.
217 AM PDT Sun May 19 2024 A persistent trough over the West Coast will continue the weather pattern we have been seeing as of late. A weak area of low pressure will move across the region on Monday, which will bring the coolest and windiest conditions overall. These winds will weaken through the morning before returning by the afternoon and evening hours as a trough hangs over the western part of the country. An area of low pressure off the coast to our southwest will combine with the mean flow and deepen the trough over our region on Monday. The trough over the West Coast will continue, though not as potent as Monday. Rising heights will lead to some warmer conditions with less wind over inland regions.
401 AM MDT Sun May 19 2024 - Warmer today. Lead impulse ejects from upper trough over the Rockies. Active pattern continues through the remainder of the week series of troughs move through the Rockies into the Northern/Central Plains. A low pressure system will cross the region today and bring scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms, mainly across western and central SD. A cold front will move through the region this afternoon, with gusty NW winds developing behind the front.
645 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024 (Today through Monday Night) Ridging will gradually take place from the southern Plains into Arkansas the next couple of days. At the surface, the period will begin with high pressure over the region this morning. On Monday, high pressure will shift to the east a bit. Clockwise flow around the high will bring a little more wind than today from the south, and temperatures will be slightly warmer. The system will head toward the upper Midwest, and will drag a cold front this way.
High pressure will ridge across the region today through early week, then build south of the area through the middle of the week. At the surface, high pressure centered near Labrador will ridge back across the region. Surface ridging persists tonight, along with a building upper ridge. High temperatures today will range from the upper 60s to lower 70s north, to the lower to mid 60s interior Downeast with upper 50s to around 60 along the Downeast coast. A weak cold front approaches the region from Quebec but remains west of the state. A surge of warmer air around the high allows temperatures across northern areas to climb into the mid to upper 70s but more of an onshore flow keeps highs for the Bangor region and Downeast cooler.
210 AM PDT Sun May 19 2024 A series of low pressure systems will parade across the region, bringing cooler temperatures, afternoon breezes, and a 10-20% chance of afternoon showers and storms through the upcoming week. As a trough extending from roughly Alberta province in Canada, and draped across the Great Basin exits, and a low positioned off the SoCal coast join together, chances for showers (10%) will return for Monday along the Sierra Crest.
529 AM EDT Sun May 19 2024 High pressure will begin to build into the region today accompanied by generally rain-free conditions, light wind and warmer temperatures that are expected to hold through the middle of the upcoming week.
623 AM EDT Sun May 19 2024 (Today and tonight) An upper level trough will move through north-central Georgia today. Cooler temperatures aloft with this trough will steepen lapse rates, and residual moisture appears sufficient for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms across the eastern half of the area this afternoon. With the cooler temperatures aloft, small hail will possible with storms that develop.
Deep mean layer ridging remains in place across the Keys, though, today we are on the northwestern periphery of the ridge as this ridge begins to slide further off to the southeast as a weak frontal boundary slides down the Florida Peninsula. From synopsis, the western extent of a low-level ridge axis that extends west- northwest has begun to loosen its grip across the Florida Keys, and breezes have shifted to the south to southwest.
A high pressure ridge is expected to continue to build into the Lower MS Valley through this afternoon. A quiet, dry, and sunny day is expected across the ArkLaMiss region as an upper/mid level ridge migrate towards the area from the southwest. Clear skies and quiet conditions will continue into the evening with overnight temperatures ranging from the lower 60s to near 70 degrees in the Delta region.
620 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024 (Today through Monday) The upper level flow this morning is zonal to slightly ridging and this will continue through the short term period. The low level flow is from the southeast. This is bringing warmer, moister air to our CWA.
Look for light northeasterly winds and mostly clear skies today, with afternoon highs in the low to mid 80s.
727 AM EDT Sun May 19 2024 High pressure will begin to build into the region today accompanied by generally rain-free conditions, light wind and warmer temperatures that are expected to hold through the middle of the upcoming week.
As a broad upper level troughing pattern dips into the PNW, temperatures will begin to trend down below seasonal norms over the next several days.
Temperatures will decrease as an upper level trough moves into the area leading to near normal temperatures by Monday. An upper level trough moving into the western US will bring increasing southwest to west winds, cooler temperatures, and a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms to portions of central Nevada and the Sierra crest.
427 PM EDT Sun May 19 2024 High pressure will build in from the north tonight and persist through most of this week. A band of strong to severe thunderstorms developed along a cold front earlier this afternoon. This band will continue to slide south developing ahead of the cold front and just north of an outflow boundary, tapping into a unstable environment. Rain cooled air should keep temperatures in the 60s and 70s this evening, then cooling into the low to mid 60s late tonight.
1212 PM EDT Sun May 19 2024 A low pressure system will exit off the Carolina Coast today, with high pressure building in from the north. A cold front will bring better shower and thunderstorm chances back into the forecast late in the week. Remaining PoPs will diminish nocturnally; some low stratus could develop near the Blue Ridge Escarpment overnight in the wedgelike easterly flow.
pdf Line of showers and storms are currently skirting the Altamaha River Basin in SE GA along the cold front. Showers and storms will begin to develop across SE GA and eventually towards NE FL once the cold front begins to meander south during the late afternoon. A northeasterly flow will become established during the overnight hours as the cold front clears the area and high pressure begins to build down from the northeast.
Dry conditions will persist tonight through Monday as deep ridging becomes reestablished across Mississippi, Alabama and the western Florida panhandle and the upper trough moves off the Atlantic coast. Lows tonight will be above normal, ranging from the low to mid 60s over interior locations and from the mid/upper 60s to the lower 70s closer to and along the coast.
Winds will remain gusty today behind last night's cold frontal passage. High temperatures today will be about 10-15 degrees cooler than yesterday, or about 10 degrees below normal.
1150 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024 (Today through Monday Night) Ridging will gradually take place from the southern Plains into Arkansas the next couple of days. At the surface, the period will begin with high pressure over the region this morning. On Monday, high pressure will shift to the east a bit. Clockwise flow around the high will bring a little more wind than today from the south, and temperatures will be slightly warmer. The system will head toward the upper Midwest, and will drag a cold front this way.
We still can't rule out an isolated shower or storm across the far east, with lingering moisture rotating around the west side of the low pressure center near Macon, Georgia. It won't be much, but we may be a degree or two cooler in the east, but near 90 degrees across the west.
(Now through Monday) Dry conditions will persist tonight through Monday as deep ridging becomes reestablished across Mississippi, Alabama and the western Florida panhandle and the upper trough moves off the Atlantic coast. Lows tonight will be above normal, ranging from the low to mid 60s over interior locations and from the mid/upper 60s to the lower 70s closer to and along the coast.
1121 AM MDT Sun May 19 2024 - Warmer today. Lead impulse ejects from upper trough over the Rockies. Active pattern continues through the remainder of the week series of troughs move through the Rockies into the Northern/Central Plains. A cold front will move through the region this afternoon, with gusty NW winds developing behind the front.
(This evening through Monday) Short wave ridging will continue to influence the region through tomorrow. Gusty south winds this afternoon will diminish after sunset, except for some of the higher terrain where winds will remain elevated overnight.
- Cooler temperatures mid week. 0-3 km bulk shear values are already SW at 35 kts east of highway 281 and are expected to increase with the intensification of the low level jet after 00Z. If this happens with the low level jet, the moisture, and instability.
Current surface analysis shows low pressure just east of the Black Hills, with warm front extending east across southern SD and a cold front trailing to the southwest across WY. Latest analysis shows moderate buoyancy ahead of the low and to the south of the warm front across locations mostly east of the Black Hills at this time, with MLCAPE values to around 1000 j/kg to the southeast of the Black Hills.
At the surface a high pressure will continue to rule the overall surface pattern with light and variable winds. As high pressure begins to move east a weak onshore flow will initiate allowing temperatures to be slightly cooler right along the immediate coast. at least cooler than today with a weak northerly flow over our region limiting impacts from the cooler shelf waters.
151 PM EDT Sun May 19 2024 Warming high pressure will build atop the region through the first half of the week.
127 PM PDT Sun May 19 2024 A large-scale trough over western North America will persist through this week. A closed upper level low will move across the region on Monday, which will bring the coolest and windiest conditions overall. A closed upper low currently about 900 miles southwest of San Diego will be drawn into the mean flow and become an open wave over SoCal on Monday as a large-scale trough to the north deepens. The trough over the West Coast will continue, though not as amplified as Monday. Rising heights will lead to some warmer conditions and somewhat weaker winds over inland regions.
1213 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024 12Z upper-air analysis this morning shows an elongated ridge axis stretching from New England back through the Southern Plains. Meanwhile, 15Z surface analysis shows a 1017 mb ridge of high pressure centered over the Lower Mississippi Valley. High pressure will settle across the Mid-South later this morning leading to benign weather with increasing temperatures into the upper 80s to lower 90s to begin our workweek.
224 PM EDT Sun May 19 2024 Warming high pressure will build atop the region through the first half of the week.
Looking at current satellite imagery there is a cold front/trough over eastern Wyoming and further upstream another trough/system just off the coast of Oregon/Washington. A cold front moved through our area earlier this morning leaving breezy to moderate winds this afternoon with gusts of 30 to 40 mph. Tomorrow morning look for cooler temperatures, low to mid 30s, for most locations. With another trough/system moving over the area tomorrow, look for scattered to widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms for the southern Central mountain, southern Big Lost range, and southern Lemhi range.
This will allow the typically "cooler" coastal locations to warm just a bit more with little influence from the adjacent shelf waters, which SSTs are roughly in the middle and upper 70s. A back door trough will be moving through today, this can actually be seen in radar returns this morning just to the NE of the area. We are calling this a trough since there is only weak air mass change, and the only change is found in PW values as they drop from around 1.
Mid-level ridging has built into the region and will hold strong through the short term. This along with surface ridging over the Southeast US spells warm and humid for us here in South Texas. Considering the high dewpoints (upper 70s east) and it being early season, this will mean an elevated concern for heat related illness, especially for those especially susceptible to the high heat. No mentionable rain chances are in place, but given the high humidity and moisture convergence near the coast, can't rule out a morning streamer shower or sprinkle on Monday.
242 PM EDT Sun May 19 2024 Fair and dry weather expected early this week with warming temperatures through the week under high pressure.
815 AM PDT Sun May 19 2024 A large-scale trough over western North America will persist through this week. A closed upper level low will move across the region on Monday, which will bring the coolest and windiest conditions overall. A closed upper low currently about 900 miles southwest of San Diego will be drawn into the mean flow and become an open wave over SoCal on Monday as a large-scale trough to the north deepens. The San Gorgonio Pass will have a 70-80% chance of wind gusts exceeding 55 mph The trough over the West Coast will continue, though not as amplified as Monday. Rising heights will lead to some warmer conditions and somewhat weaker winds over inland regions.
1155 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024 (Today through Monday) The upper level flow this morning is zonal to slightly ridging and this will continue through the short term period. The low level flow is from the southeast. This is bringing warmer, moister air to our CWA.
Temperatures will decrease as an upper level trough moves into the area leading to near normal temperatures by Monday.
1106 AM EDT Sun May 19 2024 Expect a few lingering showers and thunderstorms today for the mountains, otherwise cool high pressure will build in from the east.
158 PM EDT Sun May 19 2024 A few showers and possibly an isolated thunderstorms this afternoon for the mountains, otherwise cool high pressure will build in from the east.
As we head into the evening hours, there still appears to be a window for a tornado threat if any of these supercells can sustain themselves, remain discrete, and not become too outflow dominant, as the low-level shear ramps up with a strengthening low level jet. The bulk of this is currently expected to remain in Kansas and far northern Oklahoma, but could potentially make it further south if it is able to interact with the low-level jet and lead to a more southward propagation of the line.
151 PM MDT Sun May 19 2024 KEY MESSAGES: - A low pressure system moving across southeast MT will continue to bring rain showers, with isolated thunderstorms for Prairie, Dawson, and Wibaux counties, through midnight tonight before ending. WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: A dreary day is occurring across much of the area in response to a low pressure system passing south of northeast MT, with much below average temperatures occurring across central MT.
Upper level short wave ridging will expand over the area on Monday with temperatures remaining roughly the same as today.
Discussion: Upper trough continues to slowly push east and out of the area. High temps will be a few degrees above normal as high pressure strengthens across the area.
436 PM EDT Sun May 19 2024 High pressure and drier air will move into the area to start off the work week.
1128 AM EDT Sun May 19 2024 High pressure will begin to build into the region today accompanied by generally rain-free conditions, light wind and warmer temperatures that are expected to hold through the middle of the upcoming week.
1048 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024 12Z upper-air analysis this morning shows an elongated ridge axis stretching from New England back through the Southern Plains. Meanwhile, 15Z surface analysis shows a 1017 mb ridge of high pressure centered over the Lower Mississippi Valley. High pressure will settle across the Mid-South later this morning leading to benign weather with increasing temperatures into the upper 80s to lower 90s to begin our workweek.
Monday is expected to remain clear and dry as surface ridging continues.
Dewpoints along the Rio Grande remain in the lower 70s but should mix out a bit later today which could lead to some elevated fire weather conditions given southeast flow near 15 mph with slightly higher gusts. For tomorrow night, with slightly higher dewpoints, expect low temperatures to be warmer, in the middle 70s to near 80 degrees.
Otherwise, expect lows to fall to the low to mid 60s area wide.
1206 PM EDT Sun May 19 2024 High pressure is building into the region. Generally rain-free conditions, light wind and warmer temperatures are expected to hold through the middle of the upcoming week.
135 PM EDT Sun May 19 2024 High pressure is building into the region. Generally rain-free conditions, light wind and warmer temperatures are expected to hold through the middle of the upcoming week.
350 PM EDT Sun May 19 2024 High pressure and drier air will move into the area to start off the work week.
326 PM EDT Sun May 19 2024 High pressure is building into the region. Generally rain-free conditions, light wind and warmer temperatures are expected to hold through the middle of the upcoming week.
A trough is currently digging through northeastern WA and will continue to dig into the Great Basin region through Monday, where it will phase with a closed low in SoCal. As the trough and closed low phase together, our current northwesterly flow will transition into a northerly component, and pressure gradients will increase setting up for gusty northerly winds tonight and tomorrow, mainly in the wind prone areas of the western Sacramento Valley along the I-5 corridor.
840 PM EDT Sun May 19 2024 A high pressure system will provide hot and dry weather into midweek.