Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
733 PM EDT Thu May 1 2025 High pressure offshore will continue to bring dry weather and above normal temperatures through Friday.
High pressure continues to hold across the area, keeping weather conditions quiet. High pressure remains in control keeping a light Southeasterly breeze.
951 PM EDT Thu May 1 2025 High pressure offshore will continue above normal temperatures through Friday.
A warm front continues to approach from eastern Great Lakes Region, western NY and and western PA this hour Some scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms continue move to across west-central NY ahead of the boundary. The ALY forecast area is currently dry with mid and high clouds on the increase, as high pressure moves off shore. Dry conditions today comes to end tonight as an approaching low pressure system arrives to the Great Lakes region bringing 40 to 60 percent chances of rain showers to eastern NY and western New England throughout the overnight hours.
623 PM CDT Thu May 1 2025 - Rain ends overnight with clouds and cooler temperatures sticking around through Friday. It's been a dreary start to May with a cold front half way across Minnesota this afternoon. Sunshine and warmer temperatures return just in time for the weekend.
An upper-level trough moving in from the west will push a boundary through the region, increasing the coverage of rain showers. Cooler air flowing into northern Minnesota and the Arrowhead region might cause some snow to mix with rain during the early morning. However, since surface temperatures should stay at or above freezing, any snow accumulation is expected to be negligible (less than half an inch in the Arrowhead). Looking ahead to the weekend, high pressure will build in, preventing precipitation and allowing temperatures to climb into the 60s and 70s. However, areas closer to Lake Superior will remain cooler, as the lake temperature is still a chilly 37Â°F.
An area of low pressure is developing over the central United States will begin to pinch the high eastward. Coverage increases for Saturday as will temperatures with a range from the mid to upper 80s across Southeast Florida and coastal Southwest Florida to the lower 90s across inland Southwest Florida.
500 mb trough axis is across southeast Manitoba into central North Dakota moving southeast. Within this trough axis is an area of lower clouds that is moving south-southwest around the upper low but cloud coverage is not solid with plenty of clear holes. starting off with variable cloud cover, most areas mostly cloudy, but in time as 500 mb trough axis passes through and 500 mb heights rise this aftn/eve would expect to see decreasing cloud cover. Some patchy radiational fog is possible in northwest or west central MN overnight but models are not hinting at it at this time as high pressure is more over Duluth region late tonight at time of max fog formation.
348 AM EDT Fri May 2 2025 High pressure offshore will maintain above normal temperatures through Saturday. Shower and thunderstorm chances return to the forecast this weekend as a cold front approaches from the west.
143 AM EDT Fri May 2 2025 High pressure offshore will continue above normal temperatures through Friday.
A cold front will move into the Big Country Friday morning. At this time, the highest confidence is that storms will develop south of a Mertzon, to San Angelo, to San Saba line. Expect cooler temperatures to filter in behind the front. Highs will generally be in the 70s, except across the I-10 corridor where highs will be in the low 80s.
As the first wave noted on 07z/2am water vapor imagery over Wisconsin/eastern Iowa skirts into the Great Lakes, synoptic ridging in its wake will lead to dry conditions across central Illinois this morning. All models show the 500mb wave strengthening and eventually forming a closed low over central Illinois on Saturday. particularly on the E/SE periphery of the low along/south of a Paris to Taylorville line where likely PoPs (greater than 60% chance) are warranted. Further north directly beneath the low, will need to keep an eye on the possibility of a few cold air funnels Saturday afternoon given the pocket of -23 to -25C 500mb temps shown by the 00z GFS.
Cloud cover and northwest flow will keep temperatures cooler tomorrow in the 60s for highs. Upper ridging will expand over the central US later in the weekend with another closed low deepening over the Desert Southwest. This sets up a blocking pattern aloft, which will slow the progression of systems across the country.
A strong U/L ridge will hold over the Florida peninsula today with continued very warm dry conditions across the forecast area under mostly sunny skies. The U/L ridge will give way over the weekend as a major pattern change takes place with a strong Omega block developing over a majority of the CONUS. The eastern portion of the block will be dictated by a strong cut-off low developing over the midwest, with an associated frontal boundary approaching north Florida late Saturday night.
113 AM CDT Fri May 2 2025 - Rain ends overnight with clouds and cooler temperatures sticking around through Friday. It's been a dreary start to May with a cold front half way across Minnesota this afternoon. Sunshine and warmer temperatures return just in time for the weekend.
The severe wx variable with the highest probablity of occurance will be damaging winds then hail and finally tornadic. These clusters will be capable of producing the highest prob of severe storms and heaviest rainfall as they move into the area later today. Eventhough there will be a few showers lingering, this reprieve will last until 5a Sat when the main short wave will drop into the base of the H3 long wave trough enhancing lift once again. This short wave will take a while to dig the H3 trough, so the front that will be moving through along with it will take its time once it gets here.
After that conditions should dry out behind a cold front that is expected to move through the area. The NBM 10th percentile has some areas like Texas County and surrounding areas, to include down into Dalhart actually dropping to below freezing.
Majority of guidance depicts <500 J/kg SB/MUCAPE along with non-traditional wind/hodograph profiles with CCW curvature through at least the lower half of the profiles. Limited concern for stronger storms, but with low freezing levels around 6kft, hail would be the primary concern. This acts to keep the area under cooler northerly upper level flow, but also on the dry side.
- A cold front will approach and push through the area this evening into Saturday morning.
This debris will likely linger through a good portion of the overnight hours, before the low stratus shield develops late.
Locally, east to southeast winds begin to veer south as the area of high pressure departs. High temperatures remain steady, reaching the mid to upper 80s across the interior while remaining in the low 80s along the coast.
KEY MESSAGES: - Continued shower/storm chances both today and Saturday - Temperatures fall from above average today to around/below average Saturday ------------------------------------------------------------------- An upper-level trough axis back across the Midwest will maintain a warm southwesterly flow that looks to maintain high temperatures near 5-10 degrees above average. Isolated storms look to be possible again tonight along and ahead of the cold front. The upper trough makes eastward progress Saturday but just how much comes into question as solutions diverge on positioning. At this time, the more likely solution indicates continued shower chances and slightly cooler temperatures Saturday. Consensus across all the clusters shows high confidence in a western CONUS trough and a central CONUS ridge.
- A cold front on Saturday will bring a line of thunderstorms; some of which could be severe. Our cold front is set to move through the area late Saturday morning and into Saturday afternoon.
159 AM MDT Fri May 2 2025 - Dry and warmer with temperatures 10-15 degrees above normal Friday and Saturday.
Meanwhile, the subtropical jet / ridge extending over northern Mexico will feed divergence aloft and contribute to weak perturbations that will help organized convection to the north today and early Friday as frontal boundary develops across the Ozarks. Then the low migrates east into the Ohio Valley through Saturday night.
A few showers have been skirting westward across the Straits of Florida and are on pace to move across the Lower Keys this morning. Broad high pressure near Bermuda continues to promote easterly winds across the region. An upper level trough parked over the eastern third of the U.
253 AM MDT Fri May 2 2025 - Dry and warmer through Saturday.
Showers continue to move south this morning along an axis of WAA and the base of a mid level wave and upper level trough.
143 PM EDT Fri May 2 2025 High pressure offshore will continue above normal temperatures through Friday.
Mostly sunny and warmer today with highs in the 70s. Shower activity continues through the weekend with the higher rain amounts focused across central and eastern NV. High pressure centers over the inter-mountain west today with mostly sunny skies over northern and central NV. Trough energy approaching the west coast tonight will nudge the ridge over Nevada eastward. Clouds increase from west to east later this evening and overnight which will help keep the low temperatures 5-10 degrees above normal into early Saturday morning, with most locations only dropping into the low 40s. Ahead of the approaching trough, southerly winds will increase across central and northeastern NV later Saturday morning and through the afternoon and early evening hours.
Upper troughing over the west will maintain warm advection in southwesterly flow today, which will keep high temperatures near 5-10 degrees above average. Shower/storm coverage will increase later in the afternoon ahead of low and associated upper trough, and convective temperatures in the low 70s are exceeded. KEY MESSAGES: - Continued shower/storm chances through Saturday - Temperatures fall to below average Saturday ------------------------------------------------------------------- Shower chances continue tonight as the mentioned trough continues to transition towards the region. Over the course of the day the upper low is progged to deepen and close off, or even completely cut off during the afternoon. This will maintain unsettled conditions and result in slightly cooler temperatures. Consensus across all the clusters shows high confidence in a western CONUS trough and a central CONUS ridge.
Rain chances will continue Saturday ahead of a slow-moving cold front.
613 AM CDT Fri May 2 2025 - A cold front will approach and push through the area this evening into Saturday morning.
524 AM MDT Fri May 2 2025 - Dry and warmer through Saturday.
Otherwise, expected increasing clouds as convection develops this afternoon, with highs climbing into the low and middle 80s. Rain chances will continue Saturday ahead of a slow-moving cold front.
504 AM EDT Fri May 2 2025 Scattered showers and storms today ahead of an approaching cold front.
515 AM MDT Fri May 2 2025 - Shower and thunderstorm activity will be more isolated across the southern mountains of Colorado this afternoon as drier and warmer air takes hold.
339 AM MDT Fri May 2 2025 - Shower and thunderstorm activity will be more isolated across the southern mountains of Colorado this afternoon as drier and warmer air takes hold.
* A low pressure system will bring chances for showers and thunderstorms and gusty outflow winds this afternoon east of the Sierra crest. * Cooler temperatures, breezy winds, increased chances for showers and thunderstorms, and light rain/mountain snow showers will all be possible this weekend. A deepening upper level trough positioned off the CA coast will extend further south today before becoming cut off Saturday evening. This trough will give our area just enough forcing and instability, around 500-600 J/kg of SBCAPE, to produce a thin N-S oriented band of showers and thunderstorms along the Sierra Front this afternoon from Mono County up to northern Washoe County. Looking ahead to Saturday afternoon, the low pivots inland over SoCal, drawing up more moisture from the south.
Upper-level ridging will begin to move into the Rockies today, ushering in warmer and drier air for the next few days. Warmer temperatures can be expected during the day Saturday as 700 mb temperatures climb to +8C as the ridge shifts further eastward. Subsidence under the ridge will keep conditions dry during this time with no chance of precipitation.
629 AM EDT Fri May 2 2025 High pressure offshore will maintain above normal temperatures through Saturday. Shower and thunderstorm chances return to the forecast this weekend as a cold front approaches from the west.
(Today through Saturday) At a glance: - A cold front this afternoon will bring a line of thunderstorms; some of which could be severe. Our cold front is set to move through the area late tonight and into tomorrow morning with lingering rain on Saturday afternoon.
A cold front moves south across the region beginning late tonight in response to the southward moving upper system, eventually moving over, then south of the forecast area Saturday afternoon through Saturday night. Another round of strong to severe storms are possible Saturday ahead of the advancing cold front. Temperatures over the forecast area above seasonal norms are expected today as rain coverage increases, then cooler drier air begins to move over the forecast area. High temperatures in the low to mid 80s today drop into the upper 70s to around 80 on Saturday as cloud and rain coverage increases. Low temperatures tonight in the 60s drop into the mid 50s northwest of I-65 to low 60s over the western Florida panhandle as cooler air overspreads the forecast area behind the front.
A chance of showers and slight chance of thunderstorms will develop this afternoon into this evening from southern Siskiyou County northward along the Cascades and eastward, in advance of a cold front. There will be gusty winds and much cooler temperatures this weekend.
518 AM EDT Fri May 2 2025 (Today through Saturday) At a glance: - A cold front this afternoon will bring a line of thunderstorms; some of which could be severe. Our cold front is set to move through the area late tonight and into tomorrow morning with lingering rain on Saturday afternoon.
Temperatures are on track to reach the low to mid 80s, and dew points are oscillating between the mid and upper 60s.
The severe wx variable with the highest probability of occurrence will be damaging winds then hail and finally tornadic. These clusters will be capable of producing the highest prob of severe storms and heaviest rainfall as they move into the area later today. Even though there will be a few showers lingering, this reprieve will last until 5a Sat when the main short wave will drop into the base of the H3 long wave trough enhancing lift once again. This short wave will take a while to dig the H3 trough, so the front that will be moving through along with it will take its time once it gets here.
404 AM MDT Fri May 2 2025 - Dry and warmer with temperatures 10-15 degrees above normal Friday and Saturday.
339 PM CDT Fri May 2 2025 Updated at 336 PM CDT Fri May 2 2025 - Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will continue tonight through Saturday morning, as a cold front moves through.
Temperatures near or just below freezing will be possible in the low lying areas like river valleys. Upper level low pressure will weaken and shift eastward into the Mississippi Valley region overnight. In fact, low spots such as river valleys will likely drop to near the freezing mark. A leeward trough develops through the day Saturday.
- Frost advisory northwest zones Saturday morning, for sunrise temperatures in the lower 30s.
Upper level ridging centered over the Great Basin continues to bring warm, dry conditions to the majority of the region. Early afternoon upper air and satellite analysis indicates a strong Pacific trough is approaching the West. A weak upper level low is crossing Arizona, bringing some convective activity to the northern half of Arizona. As the Pacific trough interacts with the broad ridge across the Plains, expect the main trough to split.
A cooldown and stronger low pressure system will bring a chance of more widespread precipitation and locally gusty winds for the weekend. The probability of highs above 85 degrees for these areas are about 50 to 90 percent, with lesser chances towards Los Banos and Merced as some ocean-cooled air could begin to flow into these portions with the upper-level trough just offshore. The upper-level trough will push inland over Central California by Saturday morning, and the next round of precipitation begins. A much cooler day is on tap with highs mainly in the 70's in the lower elevations.
While we are not expecting severe weather, bouts of energy will continue to gyrate around the low, bringing periods of showers and isolated storms. Much of this accumulation will also fall through tonight, leaving us with isolated-scattered showers/storms (20-40% chance, with <20% west of the river) circling the low tomorrow.
1122 AM MDT Fri May 2 2025 - Dry and warmer with temperatures 10-15 degrees above normal Friday and Saturday.
* A low pressure system will bring chances for showers and thunderstorms and gusty outflow winds this afternoon east of the Sierra crest. * Cooler temperatures, breezy winds, increased chances for showers and thunderstorms, and light rain/mountain snow showers will all be possible this weekend. Cumulus clouds are already starting to bubble up along the higher terrain this early afternoon. As this weekend's low pressure system tracks inland Saturday, chances for widespread showers with the occasional thunderstorm increase. Model guidance is favoring the Sierra in Mono county for snow accumulations with up to 5 inches possible along the highest peaks. The heaviest rainfall this weekend will take place Saturday, with the highest amounts (0.
A band of showers and storms associated with a low pressure and complimentary cold front is slowly moving through the area. These showers are developing behind the surface cold front along the 850mb front. Across SE Nebraska, post frontal clearing combined with diurnal heating and lift from CVA of the low has initiated showers and thunderstorms. Going into the weekend, ridging builds across the central CONUS creates a weak omega block bringing a little break in the weather action across the region. Some remnant showers are possible Saturday along and east of the US-65 corridor as the low slows across the OH Valley, but any rain is expected to be fairly isolated.
- Patchy areas of frost will be possible tonight as temperatures dropping into the low to mid 30s with the greatest risk along and east of I-29. CURRENTS & TONIGHT: A mild and breezy day continues! Taking a look across the area, most areas are now up to the low to upper 50s as of 1 pm with a scattered diurnal "Cu" field developing mostly along the Missouri River Valley and across central SD. With this in mind, make sure to cover any sensitive vegetation and/or bring in any potted plants! REST OF THE WEEKEND: Looking into the rest of the weekend, more warm and quiet conditions are in stored as an omega blocking pattern sets up aloft by Saturday.
Expecting these scattered showers and occasional thunder to persist into the early evening hours until a weak trough eventually pivots south through the area. With this trough passage occurring in the late afternoon and early evening, we may see a small amount of instability pool along the boundary, increasing the likelihood for thunderstorms as it moves through. Once the trough drops through the area, precipitation chances will diminish overnight. Low temperatures drop into the mid to upper 30s, with the potential for some even cooler values in lower lying areas. With temperatures generally 4-5 degrees above freezing, not expecting this to be widespread or to cause significant impacts. As we get into the weekend, the 500 mb trough closes off into an upper low and parks itself over the ohio river valley, setting up a blocking pattern through the weekend.
Storms will develop along a cold front over the Hill Country and move south tonight. Hi-res guidance shows a few discrete cells developing ahead of the cold front which may develop into severe thunderstorms with large hail and damaging winds. Temperatures will be slightly cooler for Saturday, with highs in the low 80s.
Convection has developed over the northern half of the CWA and will continue to spread as a cold front approaches the area from the north. The cold front will push into a warm, moist airmass and generate strong lift of the conditionally unstable airmass.
1130 AM MDT Fri May 2 2025 - Shower and thunderstorm activity will be more isolated across the southern mountains of Colorado this afternoon as drier and warmer air takes hold.
Morning water vapor satellite imagery shows an upper high centered along the US/Canada border this morning.
Temperatures are generally in the lower to middle 40s with winds ranging from 10 to 15 mph. 500 mb trough axis is across southeast Manitoba into central North Dakota moving southeast. Within this trough axis is an area of lower clouds that is moving south-southwest around the upper low but cloud coverage is not solid with plenty of clear holes. starting off with variable cloud cover, most areas mostly cloudy, but in time as 500 mb trough axis passes through and 500 mb heights rise this aftn/eve would expect to see decreasing cloud cover. Some patchy radiational fog is possible in northwest or west central MN overnight but models are not hinting at it at this time as high pressure is more over Duluth region late tonight at time of max fog formation.
200 PM CDT Fri May 2 2025 - Frost advisory northwest zones Saturday morning, for sunrise temperatures in the lower 30s.
138 PM MDT Fri May 2 2025 - Dry and warmer with temperatures 10-15 degrees above normal Friday and Saturday.
With the arrival of the cooler air temperatures have dropped with highs today in the 60s. This will reverse come Saturday as a upper level ridge brings warming conditions with highs returning to the 70s.
Temperatures along the island chain are in the lower 80s with dew points still in the mid to upper 60s. In concert with these last couple of features, a pronounced ridge located along the Montana and Canada border will propagate westward.
The cold front to our west will draw closer Saturday, and additional short wave energy will be rounding the base and moving up the east side of the upper low centered to our northwest.
- Cooler temperatures will occur this weekend with highs in the 60s and lows in the 40s.
Upper levels=ridge, surface levels= high pressure, combined=warm and mostly dry.
This ridge will continue to push eastward with the entire CWA directly under the ridge Saturday. At the surface an area of high pressure extends from MN/WI through SD and will shift off to our east and over MN/WI by 12Z Saturday.
824 PM MDT Fri May 2 2025 - Dry and warmer through Saturday.
518 PM MDT Fri May 2 2025 - Dry and warmer with temperatures 10-15 degrees above normal Friday and Saturday.
617 PM CDT Fri May 2 2025 - Patchy areas of frost will be possible tonight as temperatures dropping into the low to mid 30s with the greatest risk along and east of I-29. CURRENTS & TONIGHT: A mild and breezy day continues! Taking a look across the area, most areas are now up to the low to upper 50s as of 1 pm with a scattered diurnal "Cu" field developing mostly along the Missouri River Valley and across central SD. With this in mind, make sure to cover any sensitive vegetation and/or bring in any potted plants! REST OF THE WEEKEND: Looking into the rest of the weekend, more warm and quiet conditions are in stored as an omega blocking pattern sets up aloft by Saturday.
547 PM MDT Fri May 2 2025 - Dry and warmer through Saturday.
322 PM MDT Fri May 2 2025 - Dry and warmer through Saturday.
841 PM MDT Fri May 2 2025 - Dry and warmer with temperatures 10-15 degrees above normal Friday and Saturday.
A few storms Saturday afternoon may produce damaging wind gusts and large hail over the Lower Susquehanna Valley.