Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
113 AM MDT Thu Aug 29 2024 - Cooler on Thursday with isolated shower and thunderstorm activity over the southern Mountains, low chance across the far southeast Plains. an upper low will slowly track eastward across southern Canada through Thursday afternoon, while flat upper riding continues across the Desert Southwest. At the surface, a cold front will push south from the system passing by to the north late tonight into Thursday morning. With the passage of the cold front, afternoon highs will be around 10 degrees cooler across the Plains, with mostly 70s to 80s for highs. Mozley Upper trough will continue to shift south/southeast across the region Thursday night, however, dry advection will be the trend during that time frame. With the departure of this trough on Friday, upper ridging will be the trend into the weekend.
Today and Tonight: Severe thunderstorm potential Today into tonight, an upper low currently located over northern Montana will advance to roughly over Winnipeg. As moist advection continues, some cloud-limited insolation occurs, and temperatures aloft cool due to the advancing upper low, MLCAPE looks to build to greater than 2000 J/kg. As for hazards, progged DCAPE exceeds 1000 J/kg across guidance that makes up the HREF and, with deep shear vectors oriented along the eastward sweeping cold front, expect quick upscale growth as convection matures to our west. Finally, cannot rule out a tornado with any discrete convection that improbably develops east of the advancing cold front with most solutions suggesting sfc-500m SRH may exceed 50 m2/s2. While the HREF probability for greater than 1" of rain exceeds 50 percent in some locations, underlying distribution shows outliers on the high side (i.
A couple more days of heat and humidity are on tap before a series of cold fronts come down Labor Day weekend and bring a cooler and wetter pattern to the Mid-South.
1200 AM CDT Thu Aug 29 2024 (This evening through Friday) High pressure aloft was centered to the east of the Natural State, placing the FA on the western periphery. As the aforementioned upper ridge conts to weaken, the feature ovr TX wl begin to drift northward. For Friday, a northern stream upper trof is fcst to track eastward acrs the northern Plains into the western Great Lakes. This wl allow for a cold front to apch AR from the northwest.
Lows will be in the low to mid 70s inland and upper 70s at the coast. High pressure will shift into the western Atlantic waters off the Southeast US coast Thursday with east to southeast winds 10-15 mph at the beaches and along the St Johns river while 5-10 mph inland. This will keep highs a little cooler at the coast in the upper 80s to near 90 degrees while mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies allow highs to reach the low to mid 90s inland. A weak trough will be located to the northwest of the area through Friday. Aloft the region is under a 500mb ridge that will cover the east coast of the US.
1236 AM MDT Thu Aug 29 2024 - Storms are likely over portions of the area on Thursday, mainly in northwest Kansas with a cold front. Cold front will be moving into northeast Colorado around 12z and McCook- Goodland by around 18z, which is slightly slower than previous model runs. Upper ridge builds over the area from the west on Friday and strengthens through the weekend.
The highest rainfall chances will be focused over the Victoria Crossroads, where the greatest instability and closer proximity to the deeper moisture exist.
Fri, slightly cooler condns are expected, owing to incrsg cloud covg and scattered precip activity.
1006 PM PDT Wed Aug 28 2024 Thursday morning will be chilly, but sunny skies will push afternoon temperatures into the upper 70s in north Idaho and the low to mid 80s in central and eastern Washington.
232 AM MDT Thu Aug 29 2024 - Isolated showers and storms are possible through this morning - Cooler weather through today with gusty winds across northwest SD. Upper level low currently centered over northern MT/southern SK with 500 mb speed max (50-60kt) positioned across western ND into northwestern SD. These isolated showers should cross the CWA from northwest to southeast through this morning as the upper low passes to our north. Temperatures will be cooler today with highs generally in the 70s to low 80s. Upper ridge builds into the western US by the weekend, bringing warmer and dry conditions to the CWA.
This will be the case again today, so I expect at least 100, if not 101-102 at BNA as the upper ridge axis centers itself over the region.
Cooler weather begins today, and persists through the weekend.
Anomalous ridging remains atop both the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, with H85 temperatures nearing 20C. Daily Record High Maximum Temperatures Date Chattanooga Knoxville Tri-Cities Oak Ridge 08-29 100(1993) 102(1948) 96(1953) 99(1948) Secondly, the moisture increase will lead to a return of shower/storm chances in the afternoon.
Precipitation will end this morning along the Continental Divide as low pressure moves into central Montana. High pressure will develop today and strengthen across the west through the entire Labor Day Weekend. The lower valleys across central Idaho will hit triple digits.
CAMs indicate potential for two main rounds of convection today, the initial round being more isolated to scattered ahead of an approaching cold front, focused on the western to central Panhandles this afternoon. Through the afternoon hours, most models agree moisture will be shunted southward, as a localized high closes off over SE Colorado, ushering in drier air from the north behind a prominent upper level low lifting across the northern Plains into Ontario. Even if rain persists longer throughout the day tomorrow, cooler temperatures are assured, with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s forecast.
An upper level low is centered along the Saskatchewan- Montana border with a trough extending southward down the spine of the Rockies to New Mexico. The upper low will move pretty quickly to the northeast toward the south end of Hudson Bay while the southern extension of the trough will move more slowly eastward. However, additional low level forcing along the cold front will support more thunderstorm development during the overnight hours.
243 AM CDT Thu Aug 29 2024 An upper low to the southwest will promote continued moist advection into the area today. This weakness in high pressure across our region will combine with increased moisture/instability and hot temperatures across the CWA each afternoon.
1226 AM CDT Thu Aug 29 2024 (This evening through Thursday night) On the large-scale, a seasonably potent upper-level trough is located in the vicinity of the Montana/Saskatchewan/Alberta area. Meanwhile, satellite water vapor imagery shows a weak upper-level trough over Arizona/New Mexico. the subtle weak trough in the Southwestern US will track northeastward through the afternoon with a cold front surging in from the north. Thunderstorms may start in the mid-afternoon well ahead of the cold front, but the primary activity will be in the late afternoon through the nighttime hours with the frontal passage. The cold front should move through the Panhandles by the end of Thursday night but showers and possibly a thunderstorm or two may linger.
The best chances still looks to be this weekend as an inverted trough pivots through the easterly flow. There is some disagreement on what happens to the this inverted trough after the weekend. The ECMWF is a little slower pushing this feature out as it potentially phases with a cut-off upper level low that will park itself across the Florida Peninsula. Meanwhile, the GFS is more progressive with the inverted trough moving west northwest into the Gulf of Mexico. An Atlantic ridge stretching into the southeastern United States and Florida will generally remain in place through the upcoming holiday weekend with only subtle shifts in placement. A weak trough is expected to move northwestward towards the Keys over the weekend resulting in a slight uptick in southeasterly breezes and a period of unsettled weather.
1059 PM CDT Wed Aug 28 2024 Updated aviation portion for 06Z TAF issuance - Showers and thunderstorms are expected Thursday evening into Friday from a cold frontal passage. Tonight and Thursday Skies were cloudy this afternoon, along with cooler than normal temperatures for late August.
Weather concerns remain nil in the short term as high pressure ridging moves into the region in the wake of a dry cold front, bringing a warming trend taking us back to summertime warmth with light winds and benign conditions. As mentioned, a ridge of high pressure extending off of the Four Corners region will take over the region this evening through the weekend.
High pressure will continue to sit north of the area, with drier air in the mid levels across southeast Georgia limiting precipitation potential there. The highest coverage of storms this afternoon and evening will be along I-75 over north central Florida, gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall is possible. Southeast winds will keep temperatures along the coast in the upper 80s today, with inland highs in the lower to mid 90s.
Areas of showers and storms associated with coastal moisture convergence assisted by an upper level low, have now ceased for the remainder of the nocturnal period. 30 (Tonight through Friday night) An upper disturbance is positioned from northeast Mexico across central Texas this afternoon while at the surface an inverted trough is over the western Gulf of Mexico. PWATs ahead of the the upper trough will continue to run in the 2.
145 AM MDT Thu Aug 29 2024 - Fall like temperatures across the Cowboy State this morning with many seeing near to below freezing temperatures in western valleys. Areas east of the Divide will see cool lows with values in the low to mid 40s. Temperatures today will be on the cooler side with highs in the mid to upper 70s. Chilly temperatures are expected once again for Friday morning with near freezing values across western valleys. Friday will see a potent area of high pressure build into the western CONUS. This high will keep warm and dry conditions over the CWA through the weekend. This low would bring chances for precipitation to other parts of the CWA but confidence is currently low at this time.
Unfortunately most locations will remain dry given the low coverage of these storms.
358 AM CDT Thu Aug 29 2024 - One final hot and humid day today before cooler temperatures arrive. - Shower and thunderstorm chances return tonight through tomorrow afternoon as a cold front moves through the region.
1222 AM CDT Thu Aug 29 2024 (This evening through Thursday) A weakening upper low that is currently over southwest portions of the forecast area, will result in widely scattered showers and a few thunderstorms this afternoon and early evening. Temperatures will be a little warmer tomorrow, with highs ranging from the lower 90s along the I-10 corridor, to the upper 90s across the Big Country.
The low pressure system that passed to our north is currently lifting out over the Plains. Elsewhere what little moisture that is left could result in fair weather cumulus over the high terrain. The only difference is that a weak broad high pressure moves westward over the Great Basin. High pressure builds in later this week behind the departing trough. The biggest forecast challenge through the period is if and when the high pressure center advects eastward enough to tap into better moisture return.
With the southeasterly flow around the ridge, showers and storms have been able to linger through this early morning. Friday looks to be a fairly close repeat to today, but clouds may keep temperatures a degree or two cooler, keeping the probabilities of seeing a large area of concern for a heat advisory to be low.
- Much cooler and less humid conditions are on tap for the upcoming holiday weekend. Barnes A line of thunderstorms will develop in advance of a cold front across Iowa/Missouri Thursday evening, then push eastward into west-central Illinois and dissipate late Thursday night into Friday morning. As the cold front pushes eastward and the atmosphere destabilizes, thunderstorms are expected to re-develop along the boundary Friday afternoon and evening. Based on expected timing of FROPA, think the highest PoPs and best severe potential will likely materialize along/east of I-57 late Friday afternoon into Friday evening. Once the cold front passes, a much cooler and less humid airmass will arrive for the holiday weekend.
(Today and tonight) Upper level ridge remains in place across the southeast states this morning with light east and east-southeast flow in place in the low- levels.
147 AM EDT Thu Aug 29 2024 *Unsettled and humid pattern with periods of locally heavy rain possible into Labor Day weekend *Trending seasonably cooler and drier (less humid) to begin the first week of September An ill-defined stationary from over the Northern Mtns of PA and leftover outflow boundaries from earlier convection across Ncent PA and near the PA/MD border will be the primary focus for any additional/isolated convection overnight as mid level temps are still quite warm - between 7 and 8. Mins will range from near 60F in the north to the lower 70s south. Anticipated cloud cover combined with an east to southeast wind (on the south side of high pressure over Nova Scotia) should make for a relatively cooler - but quite humid - day on Thursday.
1118 PM EDT Wed Aug 28 2024 *Unsettled and humid pattern with periods of locally heavy rain possible into Labor Day weekend *Trending seasonably cooler and drier (less humid) to begin the first week of September An ill-defined stationary from over the Northern Mtns of PA and leftover outflow boundaries from earlier convection across Ncent PA and near the PA/MD border will be the primary focus for any additional/isolated convection overnight as mid level temps are still quite warm - between 7 and 8. Mins will range from near 60F in the north to the lower 70s south. Anticipated cloud cover combined with an east to southeast wind (on the south side of high pressure over Nova Scotia) should make for a relatively cooler - but quite humid - day on Thursday.
HOT tomorrow Discussion: We're likely right under the strongest par of the ridge across much of the southeast US, which is increasing pressure, heat, and subsidence over the area. Tomorrow will be a similar story as today as the temperatures will be fairly similar to today, but possibly a few degrees warmer in some locations.
With generally east to southeasterly winds in place along the southern periphery of the high, we'll see minimal convective activity as subsidence acts as a suppressant. Expect overnight lows generally in the low to mid 70s with daytime highs generally in the 90s.
122 AM EDT Thu Aug 29 2024 Hot and humid high pressure will remain across the region through the rest of the work week.
The upper low over TX will begin to nudge northward while the upper maritime anticyclone over the central gulf ridges into the vacant real estate left behind the upper low. The upper low will actually open into a digging upper trough currently moving southeast over Idaho and Montana. This upper trough will eventually delineate where precip will occur and where it won't. Then the sun does its magic and heats the land mass up to and above the convective temps while the warmer air over the relatively cooler shelf waters becomes more stable than the land mass.
/NEW/ /Thursday and Friday/ Unsettled weather will continue through Friday as a coastal trough remains situated near the Upper Texas Coast. A similar set up is expected on Friday with the trough remaining near the Texas Coast, bringing additional chances for showers and thunderstorms mainly to eastern portions of the forecast area. A weak cold front will slowly move southward towards the region throughout the day and will serve as a focus for additional shower and thunderstorm development, especially across western North and Central Texas.
08/DML (Tonight through Friday night) An upper disturbance is positioned from northeast Mexico across central Texas this afternoon while at the surface an inverted trough is over the western Gulf of Mexico. PWATs ahead of the the upper trough will continue to run in the 2.
Partly to mostly cloudy skies continue to keep parts of east-central MN and western WI about 5-10 degrees cooler than other locations this afternoon. Mid-level lapse rates are on the lower end, however there should be enough ascent along the front as it marches southeastward. As the upper low moves east, high pressure will start to build in over the Central Plains leading to mostly dry and quiet conditions for much of this weekend.
Broad ridging is in place aloft across much of the E CONUS. The center of the feature is over the Mid-Atlantic region, with drier air wrapping around the high down over NE FL. The ridge axis will slowly slide farther east over the next few days.
645 AM CDT Thu Aug 29 2024 Updated aviation portion for 12Z TAF issuance - Showers and thunderstorms are expected this evening into Friday from a cold frontal passage. A strong upper low over southern Saskatchewan is forecast to move to western Ontario by 12z Friday. Despite the passage of a front, highs Friday will be a little warmer than today, thanks to downslope west winds and more sunshine than today.
This deep layer ridging will allow high temperatures today to be about 3 to 5 degrees above normal away from the coast, cooling slightly on Friday. Made slight upward adjustments to the NBM for the high temperatures today and Friday. Isolated to scattered showers and storms will advance inland with the sea-breeze through noon, become scattered to numerous this afternoon across the entire, with the highest chances across our southwest zones.
This deep layer ridging will allow high temperatures today to be about 3 to 5 degrees above normal away from the coast, cooling slightly on Friday. Made slight upward adjustments to the NBM for the high temperatures today and Friday. Isolated to scattered showers and storms will advance inland with the sea- breeze through noon, become scattered to numerous this afternoon across the entire, with the highest chances across our southwest zones.
646 AM EDT Thu Aug 29 2024 (Today and tonight) Upper level ridge remains in place across the southeast states this morning with light east and east-southeast flow in place in the low- levels.
414 AM CDT Thu Aug 29 2024 Forecast discussion for routine morning forecast issuance - Showers and thunderstorms are expected this evening into Friday from a cold frontal passage. A strong upper low over southern Saskatchewan is forecast to move to western Ontario by 12z Friday. Despite the passage of a front, highs Friday will be a little warmer than today, thanks to downslope west winds and more sunshine than today.
While we still have some weak cyclonic shear aloft and plenty of deep moisture, the lowering of vorticity could reduce the coverage of convection, especially between Del Rio and the I-35 corridor. However, on Friday these mid level northerlies take on some wrap-around moisture and a small contribution from another mid-level area of troughing moving out of the Srn Rockies into NW TX.
Dry and warmer weather follows behind and will continue through the weekend.
Dry and incrementally warmer each day over the next several.
519 AM CDT Thu Aug 29 2024 An upper low to the southwest will promote continued moist advection into the area today. This weakness in high pressure across our region will combine with increased moisture/instability and hot temperatures across the CWA each afternoon.
405 AM MDT Thu Aug 29 2024 - Isolated showers and storms are possible through this morning - Cooler weather through today with gusty winds across northwest SD. Upper level low currently centered over northern MT/southern SK with 500 mb speed max (50-60kt) positioned across western ND into northwestern SD. These isolated showers should cross the CWA from northwest to southeast through this morning as the upper low passes to our north. Temperatures will be cooler today with highs generally in the 70s to low 80s. Upper ridge builds into the western US by the weekend, bringing warmer and dry conditions to the CWA.
500 AM CDT Thu Aug 29 2024 - Storms late afternoon through evening tonight - Cooler highs Friday - Relatively mild and quiet weather over weekend A cold front will move across west central Kansas this afternoon. Storms will then spread southeast as the cold front front moves across the FA this evening. The net result is cooler lows with values in the upper 50s to mid 60s. Friday will feature very pleasant temperatures with highs in the lower 80s. A dry high pressure center will prevail over the state. The winds shouldn't be that strong as the high pressure center is fairly weak with a weaker MSLP gradient expected across the state.
608 AM CDT Thu Aug 29 2024 (Today and tonight) Much of the support from the upper level low pressure system has moved out of the area for today.
Seasonable highs in the lower 90s this afternoon. The ridge axis of high pressure draped across the tropical north Atlantic remains well north of the area, continuing east to east-southeasterly flow at 5-10kts overnight into the morning, enhanced in the afternoon and evening by the sea breeze to 10-15 kts.
From synopsis, an Atlantic ridge stretching into the southeastern United States and Florida will generally remain in place through the upcoming holiday weekend with only subtle shifts in placement. A weak trough is expected to move northwestward towards the Keys over the weekend resulting in a slight uptick in southeasterly breezes and a period of unsettled weather.
1029 AM EDT Thu Aug 29 2024 No major changes to the forecast for the rest of the morning as we sit under the hot ridge. Still looks to be a chance for some afternoon storms with the uptick in low level moisture and slightly warmer temperatures today. Anomalous ridging remains atop both the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, with H85 temperatures nearing 20C. Daily Record High Maximum Temperatures Date Chattanooga Knoxville Tri-Cities Oak Ridge 08-29 100(1993) 102(1948) 96(1953) 99(1948) Secondly, the moisture increase will lead to a return of shower/storm chances in the afternoon.
The thermal trough will push inland today into Friday, and with strong upper level ridging overhead, hot and dry conditions are expected to persist through this weekend for inland areas.
An upper low to the southwest will promote continued moisture advection into the area today. /OAJ/ An upper low to the southwest will promote continued moist advection into the area today. This weakness in high pressure across our region will combine with increased moisture/instability and hot temperatures across the CWA each afternoon.
344 AM PDT Thu Aug 29 2024 Thursday morning will be chilly, but sunny skies will push afternoon temperatures into the upper 70s in north Idaho and the low to mid 80s in central and eastern Washington.
Dry with temperatures trending warmer today and Friday.
Temperatures are already in the low 80's and will top out in the low to mid 90's this afternoon. The Florida peninsula remains under control of high pressure to the north, which will keep us in a predominant east-southeast wind flow once again today.
(Today and tonight) Much of the support from the upper level low pressure system has moved out of the area for today.
438 AM MDT Thu Aug 29 2024 - Fall like temperatures across the Cowboy State this morning with many seeing near to below freezing temperatures in western valleys. Areas east of the Divide will see cool lows with values in the low to mid 40s. Temperatures today will be on the cooler side with highs in the mid to upper 70s. Chilly temperatures are expected once again for Friday morning with near freezing values across western valleys. Friday will see a potent area of high pressure build into the western CONUS. This high will keep warm and dry conditions over the CWA through the weekend. This low would bring chances for precipitation to other parts of the CWA but confidence is currently low at this time.