Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A cold front Thursday night could bring a few showers from the Illinois River westward. High pressure at the surface will slip east of Illinois tonight, allowing a weak southerly flow to begin in central IL. As a result, at least west-central IL should see a few degrees warmer temperatures tonight, and the entire area should see several degrees of warming for Thursday afternoon, yielding lows in the mid 40s tonight (coolest in the east) and highs from upper 70s to lower 80s Thursday (again coolest in the east).
Aloft an upper ridge will translate through the southeastern US, and by tomorrow we'll return to a weak southwesterly flow under the near surface ridging regime. Despite the passage of a front this morning, dewpoints will remain relatively unchanged, and the different ridge positions will actually increase tomorrow's temperatures by a few degrees relative to today.
240 PM EDT Wed Oct 2 2024 - A Little Warmer Tomorrow - One legitimate chance of rain from Fri through Wed - A Little Warmer Tomorrow The larger scale upper-air pattern between now and Thursday night will feature a transition from broad and low-amplitude ridging to troughing. Warmer air at 850 mb is advecting over Lower Michigan this evening and will be about 12 to 13 Celsius during the day tomorrow. Thursday night, the upper-level trough will be approaching the northern Great Lakes, and a weak cold front will sag through Lower Michigan.
There continues to be a large amount of inconsistency between both the deterministic and ensemble model guidance regarding low pressure(s) developing in the Gulf of Mexico. Generally, models show a trough or elongated low pressure lifting NW into the Gulf of Mexico and another trough in the Bay of Campeche.
146 PM EDT Wed Oct 2 2024 Drier weather settles in behind a cold front with temperatures a bit above normal into the weekend.
1202 PM CDT Wed Oct 2 2024 - High confidence for dry weather pattern persisting for several days along with warmer than normal temperatures Warmer temperatures will return to the region today and especially on Thursday with 90s coming back into the forecast. In the wake of each upper level wave racing east across the northern plains into the Great Lakes a couple cold fronts will move southward into Kansas.
1216 PM CDT Wed Oct 2 2024 (Today and tonight) The flow over North America has become more zonal with a flat ridge extending from California to East Texas and eastern Oklahoma. This ridge will expand eastward along the Gulf Coast while a weakness develops in it over the southern High Plains. Low level warm advection will result in temperatures warming back into the upper 80s to lower 90s, in line with conditions before yesterday's cold front. Surface winds are likely to remain closer to 10 mph overnight which will help lead to a relatively mild night and low temperatures near 5 degrees warmer than normal.
236 PM MDT Wed Oct 2 2024 - Cold front brings shift to breezy north winds today.
201 PM CDT Wed Oct 2 2024 - Warmer conditions will occur Thursday into the weekend, as temperatures will be 5 to 15 degrees above normal. Temperatures will continue to warm into the middle 70s to the lower 80s the rest of this afternoon. A warmer air mass will continue to advect into the region from west to east on Thursday as 850mb temperatures around 20C will occur across the western portions of the area. An upper level trough will move east out of the northern Plains into the Great Lakes region Thursday night.
The polar front jet remains well to our north while an elongated area of high pressure has setup across the CWA. Climatology and statistics are on our side for those of us wishing for cooler days. Unfortunately, clear skies and subsidence under the high pressure will keep us trending above said climatology for the coming week.
738 PM EDT Wed Oct 2 2024 High pressure through Thursday night.
High pressure will remain the dominant weather feature through the next seven days.
High pressure and offshore flow over the region is bringing clear skies and temperatures well above normal. Thursday this high pressure starts to slowly get pushed to the east and squashed down by a trough approaching the Pacific Northwest. Temperatures will still be warm, although most areas will be a few degrees cooler than today.
A cold front Thursday night could bring a few showers from the Illinois River westward. Auten High pressure at the surface will slip east of Illinois tonight, allowing a weak southerly flow to begin in central IL. As a result, at least west-central IL should see a few degrees warmer temperatures tonight, and the entire area should see several degrees of warming for Thursday afternoon, yielding lows in the mid 40s tonight (coolest in the east) and highs from upper 70s to lower 80s Thursday (again coolest in the east).
High pressure remains centered to the SE of Michigan late this evening. as an upstream cold front is slowly pushing SE into Lake Superior. Relatively high pressure will keep mostly sunny/clear skies in place for the majority of the time period, with the exception being cloud cover starting to move in later in the day Thursday. Temperatures then look to warm back into the low to mid 70s for most areas south of the bridge Thursday afternoon, with slightly cooler highs in the upper 60s across the eastern U. Pattern Synopsis and Forecast: Longwave troughing will support relatively quiet weather with occasional chances for precipitation through the weekend.
635 PM CDT Wed Oct 2 2024 (Tonight through Thursday night) Ridging will continue over most of the area tonight with a very low chance of showers (<10%) over the waters. A broad trough over the southwestern Caribbean Sea and southern Gulf of Mexico will move further into the Gulf of Mexico, increasing our moisture. This will combine with a mid-level trough/cut-off low that will drift to the east across the area resulting in low to moderate (10-50%) rain chances will increase for Thursday night over the waters.
632 PM CDT Wed Oct 2 2024 (This evening through Thursday Night) The warmer than normal temperature regime continues this afternoon with bright sunshine and temperatures in the low/mid 90s. The trough, currently over the central Gulf, is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
624 PM CDT Wed Oct 2 2024 (This evening through Thursday night) A cold front has basically stalled over LA just right south of the I-12 corridor.
631 PM CDT Wed Oct 2 2024 High pressure will continue to build into the ArkLaMiss tonight into Thursday morning, with clear/calm conditions forecast in most locations. Lows in the low to mid 60s will be more common across central Mississippi and the Pine Belt where a modified Gulf air mass will remain in place.
727 PM EDT Wed Oct 2 2024 High pressure will build across the region and allow for dry weather through the end of the week.
Some of the drier air has mixed down to the surface, and dew points are currently in the lower to mid 70s. Weak high pressure in the western North Atlantic off the South Florida coast extends across our area, and is maintaining light to gentle east to southeast breezes. The RAWS on Big Pine is registering a temperature of 78F, while the remainder of land-based observations are measuring temperatures in the lower 80s. High pressure straddling South Florida will maintain gentle breezes across the Florida Keys overnight.
741 PM EDT Wed Oct 2 2024 - A Little Warmer Tomorrow - One legitimate chance of rain from Fri through Wed - A Little Warmer Tomorrow The larger scale upper-air pattern between now and Thursday night will feature a transition from broad and low-amplitude ridging to troughing. Warmer air at 850 mb is advecting over Lower Michigan this evening and will be about 12 to 13 Celsius during the day tomorrow. Thursday night, the upper-level trough will be approaching the northern Great Lakes, and a weak cold front will sag through Lower Michigan.
Current observations show temps in the high 60s and low 70s with morning lows tomorrow forecast to be in the high 50s and low 60s.
928 PM EDT Wed Oct 2 2024 High pressure will build across the region and allow for dry weather through the end of the week.
816 PM EDT Wed Oct 2 2024 A cold front washes out before crossing the area tonight with little in the way of precipitation.
949 PM EDT Wed Oct 2 2024 High pressure through Thursday night.
805 PM EDT Wed Oct 2 2024 - Dry with warmer conditions Thursday.
655 PM CDT Wed Oct 2 2024 (Tonight) Other than some fair wx cu that has developed over much of the mid TN Valley, near seasonal/tranquil conditions prevail heading more into the afternoon hrs this Wed following the passage of a weak cold front earlier today. Lingering cloud cover should then diminish later this evening, as high pressure out of the Plains states builds eastward into the Midwest/OH Valley states. Temps into early Thu should trend a couple of degrees cooler compared to the last few mornings, with lows more in the upper 50s/near 60F.
751 PM EDT Wed Oct 2 2024 An upper ridge will begin building into the area today.
614 PM CDT Wed Oct 2 2024 (Tonight through Thursday night) High pressure is stacked through the atmosphere over Texas this afternoon. High pressure will remain in control. Low temperatures tonight will be two to three degrees cooler than last night.
Slightly cooler tonight and Thursday behind today's dry cold front. The supporting flat upper trough will exit east Thursday followed by a more amplified upper air pattern consisting of a ridge in the Great Basin and a trough approaching from the Gulf of Alaska.
Underneath elongated ridging aloft, high temperatures are once again expected to reach the upper 90s to lower triple digits, with 80s to 90s still at higher elevations. As the ridge axis shifts slightly eastward, high temperatures will cool a few degrees tomorrow afternoon across the northern and central Sacramento Valley (generally north of I-80), while potential for lower triple digits persists further southward.
655 PM EDT Wed Oct 2 2024 A slow moving, weak cold front will dissipate across the area tonight, with showers slowly diminishing.
High pressure is forecast to build down the eastern seaboard through late week with an increase in onshore flow as the pressure gradient tightens.
Skies will clear out and tomorrow should be a fantastic day with temperatures several degrees warmer than we saw this afternoon. Temperatures have been noticeably cooler this morning after the cold front went through last night. Highs tomorrow will be 7-10 degrees warmer than today.
618 PM CDT Wed Oct 2 2024 - Warmer conditions will occur Thursday into the weekend, as temperatures will be 5 to 15 degrees above normal. Temperatures will continue to warm into the middle 70s to the lower 80s the rest of this afternoon. A warmer air mass will continue to advect into the region from west to east on Thursday as 850mb temperatures around 20C will occur across the western portions of the area. An upper level trough will move east out of the northern Plains into the Great Lakes region Thursday night.
712 PM EDT Wed Oct 2 2024 (Rest of today through Thursday) A respite from an more active weather pattern continues across South Florida as we remain anchored underneath a mid-level ridge aloft. Accordingly, the highest chances for showers and storms today will be focused around the Lake Okeechobee region, coincident with the most available moisture, and inland portions of the peninsula where sea breeze collisions will occur. With a mid-level trough advecting into the western Atlantic waters offshore of the mid-Atlantic/northeastern United States on Thursday, with mid-level ridging remaining situated over our region. Maximum temperatures will reach the lower to mid 90s in most areas both days with overnight lows in the 70s.
1046 PM EDT Wed Oct 2 2024 Dry Thursday under high pressure.
721 PM EDT Wed Oct 2 2024 Dry Thursday under high pressure.
Upper level high pressure rebuilds over the region tonight and shifts eastward Thursday.
820 PM EDT Wed Oct 2 2024 A slow moving, weak cold front will dissipate across the area tonight, with showers slowly diminishing.
High pressure continues to build into the region, behind the weak front that moved through the region this morning. This high pressure will bring mostly clear overnight skies and ratchet down our lows into the mid 50s F in the north gradating into the mid 60s F in our far south eastern quadrant. /OAJ/ High pressure will continue to build into the ArkLaMiss tonight into Thursday morning, with clear/calm conditions forecast in most locations. Lows in the low to mid 60s will be more common across central Mississippi and the Pine Belt where a modified Gulf air mass will remain in place.
1256 AM CDT Thu Oct 3 2024 High pressure will continue to build into the ArkLaMiss tonight into Thursday morning, with clear/calm conditions forecast in most locations. Lows in the low to mid 60s will be more common across central Mississippi and the Pine Belt where a modified Gulf air mass will remain in place. Convection will wane Friday evening/night as the front sags back to the south -- and then mainly stay confined areas immediately along the Gulf Coast this weekend as the ridge of high pressure to our north amplifies and builds south.
Well above average temperatures along with light winds will persist through the weekend as high pressure dominates the Southwest. High pressure will continue to dominate the weather over northern Arizona through the weekend. The ridge of high pressure is currently over Arizona and extends will in to the Pacific. The center of the high becomes centered over Arizona on Thursday and wobbles around through the weekend.
1137 PM CDT Wed Oct 2 2024 (This evening through Thursday night) A cold front has basically stalled over LA just right south of the I-12 corridor.
(Today through Friday) The mid-level ridge will continue to hold over South Florida on Thursday, with a batch of drier air still lingering as well mainly in the southernmost counties (Miami-Dade, Monroe, parts of Broward and Collier). On Friday, an easterly trough will progress into the central Gulf of Mexico. Temperatures will generally be in the low 90s across South Florida for the end of this week with heat indices staying below advisory criteria due to the drier air cluster, which keeps dew points slightly lower.
Weak upper-level ridging to prevail areawide through Friday allowing for mostly sunny skies areawide.
351 AM EDT Thu Oct 3 2024 High pressure will build across the region and allow for dry weather through the end of the week.
Dry and warmer than normal conditions continue today through Friday as a warm airmass remains over the region. Look for highs today to range from the low 90s west of Highway 65 to around 80 over south-central Missouri. Similar story for Friday, but a dry cold front will push the warmest temperatures to the SW CWA. Look for highs ranging from the the low 90s SW to the mid to upper 80s elsewhere.
(Today through Friday) High pressure will get nudged east today as a mid-level low moves into South Central Texas. Unfortunately, there isn't nearly enough moisture in the column to take advantage of the lift associated with this low. Afternoons will be a different story, with continued above normal highs in the lower to middle 90s.
1101 PM EDT Wed Oct 2 2024 A cold front washes out before crossing the area tonight with little in the way of precipitation. High pressure builds back into the region Thursday for fair weather and a warming trend into Friday.
Slightly warmer today with even more sunshine expected.
(Today and tonight) The forecast area will remain underneath a weak mid/upper level trough that is wedged between upper ridging over the desert southwest and the southeastern CONUS. The ridge to the west will begin to expand eastward tonight as a fast-moving trough in the northern stream treks from the Dakotas to the western Great Lakes. This trough will also push a weak cold front into, and possibly through, the forecast area by sunrise Friday and will result in cooler overnight lows, especially across the northwestern third to half of the forecast area.
A weak upper level low that will only result in some mid and upper level clouds will slowly move from west Texas southeast into northern Mexico. At the surface, lee troughing to our north will keep our winds out of the south, but around 10 MPH or less through Friday morning.
1214 AM EDT Thu Oct 3 2024 - Warmer today with temperatures climbing well into the 70s.
150 AM EDT Thu Oct 3 2024 High pressure is going to be in place through Friday. A mainly dry front arrives Friday evening, with high pressure working back in over the weekend. Residual trough in place this morning across the Piedmont of VA into the southern Appalachians. Key message: The next northern stream synoptic scale trough crosses the eastern United States on Friday. Low level wind become westerly ahead of the surface front on Friday which typically confines the highest probability of precipitation to the mountains.
Highs today will once again reach the low 90s inland and the upper 80s closer to the coast, while lows will remain in the 60s north of the Houston metro, the low 70s in the metro area/closer to the coast, and the upper 70s along the immediate coast. The prospect of rainfall will increase slightly heading into Friday as an upper low situates itself to our SW, centered just south of the Rio Grande. The high temperature outlook for Friday remains largely unchanged with highs in the upper 80s/low 90s.
While this slow exit will leave us warm and dry over the mid-week, it will allow for a weak cold frontal boundary to sneak into the far northwester portions of the Panhandles late Thursday into Friday.
Today is the "quiet" day before another cold front arrives. A strong cold front will arrive Friday night. Along the ridges, a few 50 mph gusts are certainly possible. These winds will work into the Snake Plain and the highlands during the late afternoon and evening hours. The stronger 50 mph gusts will probably remain confined to the Arco Desert and along ridge top level.
(Tonight through Thursday night) High pressure is stacked through the atmosphere over Texas this afternoon. High pressure will remain in control. Low temperatures tonight will be two to three degrees cooler than last night. Then the trend will be slightly (a degree or two) warmer for highs Thursday and lows Friday morning.
326 AM CDT Thu Oct 3 2024 - A cold front will trigger scattered light showers late tonight into Friday morning. A cold front currently extending from Lake Superior southwestward to Nebraska will sink slowly southward today. Thermal ridging ahead of the boundary will boost 850mb temps into the 15-17C range, resulting in afternoon high temperatures topping out in the upper 70s to lower 80s. 25 along/west of a Galesburg to Beardstown line where moisture transport via the low-level jet will be greatest. Given cloud cover and morning showers, temperatures will be a bit cooler on Friday with highs ranging from the middle 70s along/north of I-74 to the lower 80s south of I-70.
1208 AM CDT Thu Oct 3 2024 (This evening through Friday) Sunny skies and pleasant temps were observed acrs the Natural State this aftn, thanks to high pressure centered over southeast MO.
MMG/Delia Ensemble guidance is in consensus that a weak upper-level trough will make its way into the mid- and upper- Mississippi River Valley late Thursday night into Friday morning. An associated weakening cold front will traverse the area on Friday. The cold front will weaken as it treks across the region on Friday and keep the rain chances confined to northeast Missouri and west-central Illinois Friday morning.
330 AM EDT Thu Oct 3 2024 Weak high pressure will nose into the region from the north this afternoon through Friday.
STRONG WINDS WITH COLD FRONT FRIDAY. Fair weather is expected today, with light winds, sunshine, and highs in the 60s and 70s under a broad ridge of high pressure. South- southwest winds will ramp up by late morning to early afternoon Friday as the cold front tracks into eastern Washington and Oregon.
235 AM MDT Thu Oct 3 2024 - Breezy to windy conditions at times this morning behind a cold front.
1145 PM CDT Wed Oct 2 2024 (This evening through Thursday Night) The warmer than normal temperature regime continues this afternoon with bright sunshine and temperatures in the low/mid 90s. The trough, currently over the central Gulf, is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
137 AM EDT Thu Oct 3 2024 Dry high pressure filters into the region today before a cold front approaches the area on Friday, bringing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms, back to the mountains. Drier conditions return this weekend as high pressure builds back into the region.
1259 AM CDT Thu Oct 3 2024 Sfc ridging remains in place across the region this evening, with little change in placement expected over the next 24hrs as it lingers from the OH Valley SW into ECntrl TX.
- A dry cold front will pass through today and Friday night.
334 AM EDT Thu Oct 3 2024 High pressure builds in from the southwest today providing fair weather and a warming trend into Friday.
251 AM CDT Thu Oct 3 2024 - A few light showers tonight with a cold front.
Winds have eased down some compared to this morning as a backdoor cold front out of Canada gradually moves southward across the Dakotas and into western Nebraska/east central Wyoming over the next few hours. Not anticipating any Frost and Freeze headlines at this time since the locations most likely to see freezing temperatures have already experienced their first autumn freeze a few days ago. Temperatures will rebound on Friday as another flat transitory ridge axis moves across the Front Range. High temperatures in the mid 70s to mid 80s are expected Friday afternoon with slightly cooler temps along the Cheyenne Ridge and the Pine Ridge due to increasing south to southeast winds at the surface.
250 AM EDT Thu Oct 3 2024 - Warmer today with temperatures climbing well into the 70s.
The polar front jet remains well to our north while an elongated area of high pressure has setup across the CWA. Climatology and statistics are on our side for those of us wishing for cooler days. Unfortunately, clear skies and subsidence under the high pressure will keep us trending above said climatology for the coming week. This wave flattens the ridge a smidge and returns a northwesterly fetch to the mean flow and perhaps cools us a few degrees headed into the weekend and beyond.
(Today through Friday) Upper level ridge will shift eastward today, as a northern stream trough crosses the northern Plains and broad troughing breaks off over Texas.
Updated at 249 AM CDT Thu Oct 3 2024 - Warm and dry weather with worsening drought conditions for the foreseeable future (Today and tonight) Today will be a hot day as the low-level thermal ridge strengthens ahead of an advancing cold front that will move southward across the Plains. The Grand Ensemble of GEFS, GEPS, and ENS members has a mean 850 mb temperatures ranging from 20 to 25 deg C with the highest values across western into north central Oklahoma. Probabilistic guidance has about a ~30% for locations across north central Oklahoma to reach 100 deg F, which is reasonable given the location of the low-level thermal ridge.
123 AM EDT Thu Oct 3 2024 High pressure will build across the region and allow for dry weather through the end of the week.
341 AM EDT Thu Oct 3 2024 High pressure will build across the region and allow for dry weather through the end of the week.
130 AM EDT Thu Oct 3 2024 A slow moving, weak cold front will dissipate across the area tonight, with showers slowly diminishing.
303 AM EDT Thu Oct 3 2024 Weak high pressure will nose into the region from the north this afternoon through Friday.