Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
At the surface, a cold front was shifting east of the area with scattered showers ahead of the front over eastern Missouri into the Ohio and Tennessee valleys. High pressure was moving into the area behind the front. Extensive cloud cover was over the area and was keeping temperatures cooler today. Readings wherein the low to mid 70s with dew points in the low to mid 60s. Lows tonight should dip into the upper 50s in south central Missouri and the low to mid 60s over western Missouri and southeast Kansas.
830 PM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024 Showers will return to the area late tonight into Sunday with crossing low pressure.
Temperatures will be warmer than yesterday though still near normal for this time of year.
148 AM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024 High pressure will move farther off the Carolina coast this coming week. Southerly winds will bring warmer and more humid air northward, resulting in spotty mainly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms beginning Sunday.
349 AM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024 (Today through Monday) A broad upper trough will continue to support lingering showers and afternoon thunderstorms today. As the upper trough shifts farther E on Monday, showers and a few thunderstorms will become more diurnally driven, with the best chances across the SE portion of the area (closer to the aformentioned trough).
108 AM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024 Dry high pressure moves off the Carolina coast on Sunday with warming temperatures and increasing moisture.
Temperatures will be near to slightly above average, with highs in the lower 70s to lower 80s this week.
429 AM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024 A weak front trailing low pressure tracking through the Great Lakes will move into the area today offering a continued chance of a shower and perhaps a thunderstorm. The front will stall and weaken further allowing high pressure to build in by Monday providing a period of dry weather. Some hang back troughing will be slow to exit, mainly across the south/southeast thru this afternoon. This trof combined with marginal instability will lead to a continued threat for showers and embedded thunderstorms thru the afternoon. Lows will fall into the lower 60s for most locations. Temperatures will be warmer with highs in the lower and middle 80s.
(Today through Monday) The low pressure system that produced showery and cloudy conditions yesterday will continue to generate scattered showers and perhaps a rumble of thunder through this morning, mainly for areas east of I-65. By afternoon, high pressure will begin to move in from the west and we see more sunshine than yesterday with much warmer temperatures. Generally quiet wx is expected tonight through Monday as a mid level ridge builds up over the area. Monday will be a very warm day with the ridge overhead and southerly low level winds.
A few light rain showers are expected along the NEvada and Idaho border this afternoon along with cooler conditions in the 70s for highs for many northern Nevada valleys.
255 AM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024 A low pressure system in the Mid Mississippi Valley will track east today bringing showers and thunderstorms to the region.
Otherwise, weak ridging in the nations mid section will provide warm and humid conditions today with high temperatures in the 80s to lower 90s.
An upper level trough is expected to move over the region today with additional energy to combine with the afternoon seabreeze boundaries to produce a chance of showers and thunderstorms areawide with highest PoPs in coastal areas from SW into S Tampa Bay area.
Less wind today as a broad area of low pressure moves off to the east.
Temperatures this afternoon will range from the upper 80s to lower 90s across the Heartland to the lower to mid 90s across the I-10 corridor. Lows will be in the lower to mid 70s across most of the CWA tonight.
Due to the higher lapse rates and instability, these storms will have the risk of hail and damaging winds (30-60mph).
Aloft, ridging remains in place over the forecast area so this subsidence combined with a cap around 650 mb will keep our forecast area dry through the early evening hours. These downsloping winds will help to boost high temperatures into the low to mid 90s on the Caprock tomorrow while east of the escarpment high temperatures will remain in the upper 80s to lower 90s.
1237 AM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024 High pressure slowly builds to our south through Sunday.
The dryline is well off to the west, and convection has developed over the higher terrain to our west.
With skies clearing this afternoon, do expect highs to rise into the lower 80s with light southerly winds.
1247 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024 (Tonight) The latest analysis this evening indicates a N-S oriented frontal/convergence boundary was located to our west across Miss extending northward into the lower OH Valley. (Sunday through Monday night) Lingering showers/embedded tstms will then begin to gradually taper off the east on Sun, as the upper trough axis moves east of the mid TN Valley. With less rainfall in place, afternoon highs on Sun look to climb more into the lower/mid 80s. Given the previous rainfall, patchy dense fog will then be possible late Sun night, as lows again fall predom into the lower/mid 60s.
359 AM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024 High pressure will slide offshore early today. Shower and thunderstorm chances return today into Monday as a quick moving low pressure system passes through the region.
Farther north, convection will initiate near a surface cold front from South Dakota southward into northern Kansas.
A weaker short wave trough will move over northern areas overnight providing additional lift. Low temperatures will range from the lower 60s far east and northeast to the upper 60s southwest. High temperatures will range from near 80 in the higher elevations east and northeast to the upper 80s far west and southwest.
A weak trough axis across far western KS/eastern CO should allow for development shortly. A very similar setup is expected late Sunday into Sunday night with convection developing across the higher terrain and progressing east and southeast into Monday morning.
914 PM PDT Sat Jun 1 2024 A weak trough over the West Coast this weekend will keep a deep marine layer in place through Monday with pockets of early morning drizzle in some coastal and valley areas.
- A slight risk of severe weather (level 2 on a scale of 5) will develop this afternoon through the evening hours as a cold front sweeps across the area.
- The warmer temperatures means runoff will be well underway with most major stem rivers showing rises over the next several days. The potential for notable wetting rain remains low as the lower levels of the atmosphere stay dry. On Monday a low pressure makes landfall in the Pacific Northwest. It will push some moisture into our area as well as a weak cold front. The higher terrain especially across the northern tier of the forecast area looks to have some instability.
(Today through Monday) This AM, an upper trough is over E Conus with C AL now in WRLY flow in its base. While we will still have some convection possible today and tonight associated with this trough, coverage should be decreasing overall. By Monday morning, the trough should continue EWD and reach the Atlantic Seaboard. This will result in upper ridging beginning to take hold over portions of E Conus.
High temperatures will follow a typical easterly regime, ranging from the mid-80s near the immediate east coast to the low to mid-90s over the interior and SWFL. A mid-level trough will traverse the region to conclude the weekend and start the workweek on Monday.
425 AM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024 A weak front trailing low pressure tracking through the Great Lakes will move into the area today offering a continued chance of a shower and perhaps a thunderstorm. The front will stall and weaken further allowing high pressure to build in by Monday providing a period of dry weather. Some hang back troughing will be slow to exit, mainly across the south/southeast thru this afternoon. This trof combined with marginal instability will lead to a continued threat for showers and embedded thunderstorms thru the afternoon. Lows will fall into the lower 60s for most locations. Temperatures will be warmer with highs in the lower and middle 80s.
A weak area of low pressure was meandering east over the northern sections of the ILX CWA this evening. There is a good setup for fog to our west tonight as ridging approaches the Mississippi Valley by sunrise, but guidance suggests any dense fog stays west of the area and will keep a mention of patchy fog in the forecast. 25 Surface analysis early this afternoon depicts a broad area of ~1012 mb low pressure centered over western IL. 12Z HREF only suggests about a ~30% probability or less for visibility to fall below 1 mile overnight, focusing higher chances of this west of the area where the center of the high will be located.
- After a warm start to the week, it will be notably cooler by week's end. A weak cold front is working its way through Michiana early this morning. This feature is forecast to track southeast, likely washing out by the afternoon as ridging resumes aloft. This patchy drizzle is forecast to end in the wake of the cold front.
Moisture and clouds in the mid to upper levels will depart but remain in the low levels for some portion of the day. Question will be how quickly does the low stratus mix and scatter into diurnal cumulus. Latest guidance more aggressive with sunshine this afternoon near/west of US-131, while some models including the HRRR leave areas near I-69 relatively gloomy where low level wind convergence and troughing hangs around a little longer on the backside of the low.
Pops however will continue to run on the low side after today. Forcing/organization is weak on Sunday with micro ridging attempting to surface.
317 AM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024 Scattered showers expected today with crossing low pressure. Temperatures will be cooler today with less solar insolation. Dry conditions continue Monday with subtle ridging stretching from the lower Tennessee River Valley to the upper Ohio River Valley. - Temperatures will trend down as an upper low settles over the eastern CONUS.
A mid-level ridge will remain in place, supporting dry and warmer than normal weather. High pressure over the Gulf will fuel moderate to breezy southeast winds.
1028 AM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024 High pressure will slide offshore early today. Shower and thunderstorm chances return today into Monday as a quick moving low pressure system passes through the region.
302 AM MDT Sun Jun 2 2024 KEY MESSAGES: 1) A system and associated cold front will transition into northeast Montana Monday through Monday night, which will bring a widespread chance for showers, thunderstorms and wetting rain.
920 AM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024 A low pressure system in the Mid Mississippi Valley will track east today bringing showers and thunderstorms to the region.
948 AM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024 Increased moisture today along with an upper level trough pushing over the state will allow for better storm chances with the highest PoPs south of I-4. An upper level trough is expected to move over the region today with additional energy to combine with the afternoon seabreeze boundaries to produce a chance of showers and thunderstorms areawide with highest PoPs in coastal areas from SW into S Tampa Bay area.
This partial clearing, along with the June sunshine, should help make for a much warmer day than yesterday as temperatures recover and climb into the low to mid 80s by the afternoon.
1035 AM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024 - Limited chance of showers today through Monday afternoon - Medium/High Confidence in evolution of upper troughing this week Latest visible loop shows clearing moving south across the northwest cwa. Moisture and clouds in the mid to upper levels will depart but remain in the low levels for some portion of the day. Question will be how quickly does the low stratus mix and scatter into diurnal cumulus. Latest guidance more aggressive with sunshine this afternoon near/west of US-131, while some models including the HRRR leave areas near I-69 relatively gloomy where low level wind convergence and troughing hangs around a little longer on the backside of the low.
(Today through Monday) A broad upper trough will continue to support lingering showers and afternoon thunderstorms today. As the upper trough shifts farther E on Monday, showers and a few thunderstorms will become more diurnally driven, with the best chances across the SE portion of the area (closer to the aforementioned trough).
A warm front approaches northern California from the northwest this morning, followed by a cold front coupled with a west- southwest moisture flux tonight into Monday morning. 5 in/hr over the higher terrain in Del Norte County. The cold front will quickly eject eastward away from the west coast Monday morning, with lingering post-frontal showers gradually tapper off Monday afternoon. Temperatures will be cooler across the interior with highs in the 70's. High pressure over eastern Pacific will build quickly over the West Coast in the wake of the this front. The mid level heights will rise slightly, and a warmer airmass will gradually develop across the WRN CONUS during the remainder of the week.
736 AM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024 Scattered showers expected today with crossing low pressure.
1050 AM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024 Scattered light showers continue today with crossing low pressure.
However this will be the beginning of a warmer and drier period for southern CO.
655 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024 (Today through Monday) The low pressure system that produced showery and cloudy conditions yesterday will continue to generate scattered showers and perhaps a rumble of thunder through this morning, mainly for areas east of I-65. By afternoon, high pressure will begin to move in from the west and we see more sunshine than yesterday with much warmer temperatures. Generally quiet wx is expected tonight through Monday as a mid level ridge builds up over the area. Monday will be a very warm day with the ridge overhead and southerly low level winds.
628 AM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024 A low pressure system in the Mid Mississippi Valley will track east today bringing showers and thunderstorms to the region.
Otherwise, since most of the convection has missed the island chain thus far, temperatures are in the mid 80s with dew points in the lower to mid 70s. Given the volatile nature of the atmosphere, will leave the high end chance PoPs of 50 percent currently in the forecast. High pressure just off the Carolina coast will weaken as it lengthens eastward into the atlantic over the next few days. On this day in day in Keys Weather History, in 1966 an F2 tornado unaffiliated with a tropical cyclone injured one and produced $25k in damage in Key West.
810 AM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024 An upper level trough is expected to move over the region today with additional energy to combine with the afternoon seabreeze boundaries to produce a chance of showers and thunderstorms areawide with highest PoPs in coastal areas from SW into S Tampa Bay area.
1019 AM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024 High pressure settles in over the western Atlantic today, with onshore flow aiding a few showers moving onshore along the Treasure Coast this morning. The highest chances (40-50%) will be south of Orlando, especially over the interior.
Skies will thin out again this evening with morning lows looking a little warmer with more lower 70s around.
723 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024 (Today through Monday) This AM, an upper trough is over E Conus with C AL now in WRLY flow in its base. While we will still have some convection possible today and tonight associated with this trough, coverage should be decreasing overall. By Monday morning, the trough should continue EWD and reach the Atlantic Seaboard. This will result in upper ridging beginning to take hold over portions of E Conus.
207 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024 - A slight risk of severe weather (level 2 on a scale of 5) will develop late this afternoon through the evening hours as a cold front sweeps across the area.
Today we will warm into the upper 80s with a few areas over northern Mississippi possibly reaching into the lower 90s.
Cooler conditions continue on Monday, although shower activity across northeastern Nevada will be winding down.
341 PM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024 A weak front moving into the area will washout tonight allowing high pressure to build in.
POPs have been heavily based on the short-term blended consensus and current observational trends, with the NBM initialization displacing the highest POPs well north of the above thinking.
Tonight will be a quiet, warm night as moisture remains elevated, with lows 2-5 degrees above normal in the lower to middle 60s west to middle 70s east and along the Rio Grande.
1230 PM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024 - Limited chance of showers today through Monday afternoon - Medium/High Confidence in evolution of upper troughing this week Latest visible loop shows clearing moving south across the northwest cwa. Moisture and clouds in the mid to upper levels will depart but remain in the low levels for some portion of the day. Question will be how quickly does the low stratus mix and scatter into diurnal cumulus. Latest guidance more aggressive with sunshine this afternoon near/west of US-131, while some models including the HRRR leave areas near I-69 relatively gloomy where low level wind convergence and troughing hangs around a little longer on the backside of the low.
The mid-level ridge will continue to drive subsidence into Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley, which will lead to the middle and upper levels of the atmosphere dry and stable. Also thanks to an enhanced pressure gradient due to the interaction of high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico and a thermal low over central Mexico. As for the heat, the high temperatures for tomorrow are expected to be in the range of upper 90s for the coastal regions, while the rest of the region is in the triple digits. As for the low temperatures, are expected to be in the low 80s.
1221 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024 - A slight risk of severe weather (level 2 on a scale of 5) will develop this afternoon through the evening hours as a cold front sweeps across the area.
Temperatures this afternoon will range from the upper 80s to lower 90s across the Heartland to the lower to mid 90s across the I-10 corridor.
Otherwise, expect hot and mainly dry conditions for much of this week due to an upper level ridge building across the Southern Plains and a 850 MB thermal ridge of 28-30 deg C.
1028 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024 - A slight risk of severe weather (level 2 on a scale of 5) will develop this afternoon through the evening hours as a cold front sweeps across the area.
Mon is expected to be another warm/humid day with highs generally in the lower 90s.
Warm front extends southeastward across N TX with a corridor of strong instability aligned downstream of this convection.
138 PM MDT Sun Jun 2 2024 KEY MESSAGES: 1) A system and associated cold front will transition into northeast Montana Monday through Monday night, which will bring a widespread chance for showers, thunderstorms and wetting rain.
130 PM PDT Sun Jun 2 2024 A weak trough over the West Coast will keep a deep marine layer in place through Monday.
246 PM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024 Low pressure will bring some rain showers to WNY today into this evening. As a weakening low pressure system will bring some showers to our forecast area through this evening. Highs today will be a bit cooler in the 60s to low 70 west of Genesee Valley due to cloud cover. mainly dry weather as weak mid-level ridging builds into the region.
131 PM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024 Scattered light showers continue today with crossing low pressure.
Highs tomorrow will range from the lower 70s west to mid 80s east. The risk of showers/thunderstorms and gusty winds will spread east and continue Monday evening as the upper short wave trough tracks across northern Montana, pushing the associated cold front east across the high plains.
Even farther west a dryline is beginning to sharpen near the state line and will quickly mix east to near the Highway 385 corridor. This drier air and downsloping westerly winds will cause high temperatures to climb 5- 15 degrees warmer than today with upper 90s to the lower 100s.
As we go through the rest of our Sunday ridging is to our north and PWs have been increasing across the area. This regime typically brings the majority of shower activity pinned near the west coast with the highest PoPs south of I4.
201 PM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024 A weak front trailing low pressure tracking through the Great Lakes will move into the area today offering a continued chance of a shower and perhaps a thunderstorm. The front will stall and weaken further allowing high pressure to build in by Monday providing a period of dry weather. Lows will fall into the lower 60s for most locations. Temperatures will be warmer with highs in the lower and middle 80s.
1157 AM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024 Low pressure will bring some rain showers to WNY today into this evening. As a weakening low pressure system move east it will bring some showers to our forecast area through this afternoon into the evening hours. Highs today will be a bit cooler in the 60s to low 70 west of Genesee Valley due to cloud cover. mainly dry weather as weak mid-level ridging builds into the region.
143 PM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024 Low pressure will bring some rain showers to WNY today into this evening. As a weakening low pressure system move east it will bring some showers to our forecast area through this afternoon into the evening hours. Highs today will be a bit cooler in the 60s to low 70 west of Genesee Valley due to cloud cover. mainly dry weather as weak mid-level ridging builds into the region.
336 PM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024 High pressure will move farther off the Carolina coast this week. Southerly winds bring warmer and more humid air northward, resulting in spotty mainly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms every day.
High pressure settles in over the western Atlantic today, with onshore flow aiding a few showers moving onshore along the Treasure Coast this morning. The highest chances (40-50%) will be south of Orlando, especially over the interior.
Meanwhile, an upper level trough axis has moved east over the Mid-Atlantic states with westerly flow aloft over much of the Southeast. Only isolated showers and storms are currently in the forecast, as upper level ridging sets up over the region.
High pressure off to the northeast will move further out into the Atlantic through today and tonight resulting in a more stagnant flow pattern for the beginning of the week. High temperatures today will rise up into the mid to upper 80s and potentially reach into the lower 90s for inland areas and over north central Florida. Overnight low temperatures will drop down into the mid to upper 60s for inland areas and in the lower 70s for areas along the coast.
910 AM PDT Sun Jun 2 2024 A weak trough over the West Coast will keep a deep marine layer in place through Monday with pockets of early morning drizzle in some coastal and valley areas.
We will keep a low chance for showers and storms in the forecast out west across far western Val Verde county to account for any activity that develops over the lower Trans-Pecos region.
The likely culprit appears to be two-fold - first, a surge of greater boundary layer moisture with dewpoints in the low 70s in southern Oklahoma; and secondly, the development of an MCV from the panhandle storms to aid in forcing for convection to develop. Farther north, convection will initiate near a surface cold front from South Dakota southward into northern Kansas.
A cold front will approach the region late in the week leading to increasing rain chances and a chance for severe weather. Warm air advection and some solar insolation has warmed temperatures into the upper 70s and a few low 80s, and dewpoints are higher than yesterday in the low to mid 60s. Rain chances decrease tonight as the high moves further offshore along with the upper level trough. High pressure offshore will promote weak southerly flow across the region. As an upper trough moves offshore through the early portion of the day, the deeper moisture appears to shift east of the forecast area.