Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A low pressure system centered over central ID was supporting isolated snow showers over the higher elevations this morning. The low is projected to move southward and reach far s-central ID (including the Western Magic Valley) this afternoon.
A deepening cut-off low pressure/longwave trough near western CONUS will continue to influence downstream ridging over the southeastern region. As a result, increasing heights and additional warm/moist air advection will filter in ahead of an incoming cold front.
A warm front is across central Missouri where moisture is increasing. For Thursday, a cold front will move NW to SE through the area in the evening to early overnight hours Thursday night. Additional storms are expected to form along the cold front over the western portions of the area Thursday evening.
An upper low will dive southward into Arizona by Thursday morning, setting up strong southwest flow aloft over west Texas, with the first of a series of weak disturbances set to move through Thursday afternoon.
A cold front will begin to nudge into far northwestern OK by early Thursday morning. By early Thursday afternoon, showers and thunderstorms should begin to develop across southern OK along a prefrontal trough/dryline as an initial southern stream mid level perturbation within the SW flow moves NE out of west TX. More widespread moist convection should then continue to develop along the cold front during the late afternoon and evening hours as it progresses southward to near and south of the I-44 corridor. The highest severe threat tomorrow still appears to be across SE OK where mid to upper 60 dewpoints are likely, along with steep mid level lapse rates and sufficient deep layer shear.
141 PM EDT Wed Mar 13 2024 Temperatures will warm well above normal late this week as high pressure shifts offshore.
408 PM EDT Wed Mar 13 2024 High pressure will prevail through Thursday night.
306 PM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024 - Cold front dropping south will bring very low clouds and a slight (20%) of a rain snow mix along the International border tonight.
(Tonight) With high pressure situated to our southeast, another tranquil evening is forecast. Thanks to moisture advection during the day, dewpoints have risen into the lower 50s, which is where low temperatures are expected to bottom out overnight.
1235 PM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024 (Today through Thursday Night) An upper ridge will remain over the Midwest today with southwest flow aloft over Arkansas. A large upper trough dives into the Rockies today and a cut off low develops over the desert southwest tonight. This upper low remains in place through Thursday night.
Today will be a transition day going from the cool active weather we have experienced over the last couple of weeks to a dry and warmer one. However, could not rule out partial mountain obscurations over the higher terrain until 20z. Meanwhile, a thermal trough will strengthen in northern California and extend northward along the SW Oregon coast.
(Tonight through Thursday night) Stratus continues to erode early this afternoon from west to east with warm high temperatures expected ranging from the low 80s where clouds lingered longest to the low to mid 90s along the Rio Grande.
1215 PM EDT Wed Mar 13 2024 (This afternoon through Thursday) Benign weather conditions prevail across South Florida as the upper level ridging remains in control of the region. With the assistance of high pressure, the rest of the week is expected to with a dry and stable environment. There will be an expansion of the ridging on Thursday which will allow for a subtle wind shift.
A strong low pressure system will move into the area today, bringing gusty northerly winds to the region.
1231 PM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024 (Today through Thursday) High pressure will dominate from the North Gulf to over South Texas, with a shallow short wave trough scooting across Texas and east by mid this morning. Deep troughing will initially develop over the Rockies and will then dip south over the Southwest United States as a cutoff low. Baby short wave troughs will ripple overhead through the broader flow, yet with nothing strong enough to generate significant weather locally in the short term. Moderate south southeast breezes will prevail in the short, with breezy conditions for the Lower RGV on Thursday.
1200 PM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024 (Rest of Today) A beautiful day will unfold today as zonal flow aloft starts to ridge more. At the surface, high pressure to our southeast sends Gulf moisture up northward into the TN Valley.
Today will be a transition day going from the cool active weather we have experienced over the last couple of weeks to a dry and warmer one. Ceilings will breakup in the afternoon as high pressure builds. Meanwhile, a thermal trough will strengthen in northern California and extend northward along the SW Oregon coast.
The quiet but warming trend continues, as east central Florida remains under the influence of high pressure to our east.
130 PM EDT Wed Mar 13 2024 Sub-tropical high pressure will extend across the South Atlantic states ahead of a frontal zone that will settle into and waver over the Carolinas this weekend.
Low pressure was located across central Kansas with a warm front extending east along I-70 into Missouri. Stronger lift should continue to spread east and encompass most of the warm front area through the overnight hours however for our local area our window is closing for any thunderstorms. Latest short term model data suggests that the higher chances for development will occur just north of the area from Kansas City east along I-70. A warm front is across central Missouri where moisture is increasing. For Thursday, a cold front will move NW to SE through the area in the evening to early overnight hours Thursday night. Additional storms are expected to form along the cold front over the western portions of the area Thursday evening.
900 PM EDT Wed Mar 13 2024 High pressure will prevail through Thursday night.
A cutoff low pressure system will impact Arizona through the weekend, bringing cooler temperatures, rain, and snow. A front tied to the upper level low pressure system to our north is bringing active weather to northern Arizona today. Along the high country corridors of I-40 and I-17, snow squalls (often mixed with graupel) have caused vehicle accidents and traffic slowdowns. There is strong agreement among model guidance that the aforementioned upper level low will slide into the Lower Colorado River Valley by tomorrow afternoon.
Easterlies will bring much warmer temperatures, with high temperatures 5-10 degrees warmer than today's in much of the region.
621 PM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024 - Cold front dropping south will bring very low clouds and a slight (20%) of a rain snow mix along the International border tonight.
Any significant accumulations overnight will be in the higher north facing slopes of the foothills.
950 PM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024 Severe weather development appears increasingly likely on Thursday as a slow moving cold front approaches the Mid-South.
An area of high pressure will remain in place across the western Atlantic, stretching over towards the Florida peninsula, leading to continued dry conditions and light winds overnight. An area of high pressure over the western Atlantic will remain in place, with mostly dry conditions forecast.
744 PM EDT Wed Mar 13 2024 High pressure remains in control through tonight.
722 PM EDT Wed Mar 13 2024 High pressure remains in control today.
High pressure stretched across the western North Atlantic, east of the Florida Peninsula, is maintaining light breezes, with marine observation platforms recording wind speeds around 10 knots along the Reef this evening. From synopsis, high pressure over Florida will nudge northward over the next few days, with breezes modestly freshening from the east to southeast.
556 PM EDT Wed Mar 13 2024 High pressure will prevail through Thursday night.
536 PM MDT Wed Mar 13 2024 EVENING UPDATE: Once again like yesterday we're getting some surprise convection with some low value CAPE over the area being touched off by this Canadian Cold Front moving south. -Bernhart PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: A cold front will move through late this afternoon with low clouds coming south from Canada, expected to linger into Thursday. This low stratus may lead to fog in elevated regions near the Canadian border as well as the Little Rockies and Big Sheeps.
Lows tonight will be in the low-mid 60s inland, and upper 60s to low 70s near the coasts. (This afternoon through Thursday) Benign weather conditions prevail across South Florida as the upper level ridging remains in control of the region. With the assistance of high pressure, the rest of the week is expected to with a dry and stable environment. There will be an expansion of the ridging on Thursday which will allow for a subtle wind shift.
The dryline is progged to remain in Northeast Oklahoma and wait to be overtaken by the cold front Thursday evening. Storm development ahead of the front is expected to continue through Thursday evening with potential shifting southeast through the CWA with the movement of the cold front.
At the same time, low clouds and patchy fog were advancing south and west over central and eastern areas as a backdoor cold front worked into the region from the northeast. Weak forcing from an upper low over the Great Basin and north to northeast upslope flow as well as instability will continue to produce light to moderate snow into the morning hours over the southern mountains and foothills. The Winter Weather Advisory and Winter Storm Warning remain in effect until 6am MDT, and will make no changes to the highlites at this time. STP Upper level northwesterly flow is expected to gradually develop into upper level ridging, keeping conditions fairly calm through the first half of the week.
1137 PM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024 Severe weather development appears increasingly likely on Thursday as a slow moving cold front approaches the Mid-South. Severe thunderstorms and heavy rainfall are expected to occur on Thursday night into Friday as a slow moving cold front crosses the area.
407 AM EDT Thu Mar 14 2024 Above normal temperatures are expected today ahead of an approaching low pressure system and a cold front. Unsettled weather returns tonight into Friday with periods of showers and cooler temperatures which will close the work week and open the weekend. Sun filtered through the high clouds, along with light winds will help temperatures reach well into the 60s today with some 50s in higher terrain.
Discussion: For today, upper ridging and increasing warm southerly flow into the Tennessee valley and southern Appalachians will produce mostly sunny sky and unseasonably warm conditions. Date Chattanooga Knoxville Tri-Cities Oak Ridge 03-14 83(2012) 85(1990) 82(1990) 84(1990) For southwest Virginia and northeast Tennessee, another day of low afternoon relative humidity is expected. The low-level jet will produce isentropic lift toward daybreak. Winds Friday, will be breezy area-wide by afternoon with windy conditions across the higher terrain.
(Today and tonight) The upper closed low over southern Nevada early this morning will continue to dig south into northern Baja Cali by early tomorrow morning. As the low pushes south, the associated jet streak will push north of the forecast area. This evening a cold front will push south through the forecast area with north northeast winds picking up around midnight behind the frontal passage and continuing to ramp up through the early morning hours. Temperatures will be slightly cooler tonight with near freezing lows across the far southwest Texas Panhandle and upper 30s to 40s elsewhere.
407 AM EDT Thu Mar 14 2024 High pressure remains centered immediately off the Southeast coast today through Friday maintaining warm temperatures. A cold front approaches from the northwest Friday afternoon and evening bringing a chance of showers.
Issued by National Weather Service Charleston SC 142 AM EDT Thu Mar 14 2024 Temperatures will warm well above normal late this week as high pressure shifts offshore. Showers and thunderstorm chances will return Friday afternoon as a cold front approaches.
256 AM MDT Thu Mar 14 2024 High pressure moves into the area today with cooler temperatures. Skies will be clear to partly cloudy tonight as high pressure moves to the east. Upper ridge builds into the area on Friday with warmer temperatures.
Mild and humid conditions will move into the Mid-South this afternoon ahead of an approaching cold front. The slow-moving cold front will finally move through the region on Friday with showers moving out by late Friday night.
319 AM EDT Thu Mar 14 2024 After warm and dry conditions through this evening, low pressure will track through the North Country tonight and early Friday bringing rain and modest river rises across central and southern Vermont and the Adirondacks. Mild conditions will persist through this evening with high temperatures running a few degrees cooler than yesterday given slightly cooler 925mb-850mb atmospheric profiles. Overnight, low pressure will track out of the Great Lakes region and moving just south of the Adirondacks/south- central Greens. Temperatures should gradually drop below freezing outside the broad valleys so any residual water will likely freeze, leading to the potential for some icy areas on roads. A moist airmass and a lack of wind should help keep any surface wet, though temperatures should only fall slightly below freezing as thick cloud cover should inhibit efficient radiational cooling.
Through midnight, thunderstorms continue along and just north of the warm front across northeastern Kansas into central Missouri, generally from Leavenworth to Moberly, MO. Per 05Z surface analysis, the warm front is stalled just near or south of the Missouri River. To the west, a mid-level short wave trough continues to lift east-northeast out of far southwest Kansas, providing a source of large scale ascent as it continues to advance eastward this morning.
The high pressure continues to dominate the weather, or non weather in our case, as radar was once again quiet overnight into the early morning. As the high pressure strengthens and the ridge axis moves slightly north in the coming days, winds will start to freshen. Small Craft Exercise Caution conditions will be possible tonight as winds pick up this afternoon then will trail back off Friday evening as the ridge axis starts to shift south and the high pressure starts to move away.
It appears another weak dry line will nose into the northwestern portions of South Texas, reducing relative humidity values into the low teens. Fortunately, summer is not quite here yet, so we will have mostly cloudy skies and isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms Friday as a cold front approaches the area, leading to a very slight cool down (highs from 75-95).
An initial weak cold front is gradually nudging into the area this morning, pulling slightly better moisture with it along the way. Here, temperatures will be much cooler, while minor perturbations within southwest flow aloft should provide adequate lift for some light showers (30-70% POPs in Dallam and Cimarron counties). Another reinforcing shot of cooler air will dip south across the FA this evening, cooling everyone into the 30s by Friday morning, only recovering into the 50s Friday afternoon. Later tonight, an upper level closed low will pump the brakes on its southward trek, and begin meandering around west of the Rockies near the northern Baja Peninsula. Any precip across the northwest Thu night - Fri morning could fall as a rain-snow mix if temperatures can drop below freezing, but any snowfall shouldn't be impactful.
321 AM EDT Thu Mar 14 2024 A wave of low pressure will ride eastward along a warm front tonight bringing a round of showers to the region. Friday starts a cooling trend with a cold frontal passage.
Despite continued southwesterly surface winds, our humidity values should remain on the lower end of the scale.
The gradient between strong high pressure to the North and East and a low pressure trough over coastal California is supporting strong offshore winds through Friday morning. (Today and tonight) The large-scale pattern features an omega blocking pattern with high pressure aloft located over the northeast Pacific and low pressure over the Four Corners region. The associated surface pressure pattern consists of high pressure over the northeast Pacific and Intermountain West with a low pressure trough across coastal California. Wind Advisories remain in effect for much of the higher terrain of the Bay Area and within the North and East Bay Valleys through tonight and Friday morning. Given high pressure in control and drier downsloping winds look for highs today mostly in the mid to upper 60s.
As the cold front begins to move into the region, these threats will begin to shift to the south into the slight risk areas. An isolated tornado or two can not be ruled out, but the low-level wind shear values are not exactly where you'd like to see them for tornadic activity. However, hodographs certainly support the potential for a tornado or two, with slight modifications to the low- level shear potentially resulting in an increased tornado threat.
1244 AM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024 - Cold front dropping south will bring very low clouds and a slight (20%) of a rain snow mix along the International border tonight. Cold front extends west-east across the central part of North Dakota, with very low stratus building in behind the front. Tonight a cold front dropping south out of Canada will bring very low stratus clouds and slightly breezier winds Thursday. With the low clouds overnight, temperatures will be mild again in the upper 20s and lower 30s tonight. Friday we get back into the 50s with northwest flow and warmer 850mb temperatures. However cold air advection and a high pressure bubble is not evident in the models.
1009 PM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024 - Cold front dropping south will bring very low clouds and a slight (20%) of a rain snow mix along the International border tonight. Cold front extends west-east across the central part of North Dakota, with very low stratus building in behind the front. Tonight a cold front dropping south out of Canada will bring very low stratus clouds and slightly breezier winds Thursday. With the low clouds overnight, temperatures will be mild again in the upper 20s and lower 30s tonight. Friday we get back into the 50s with northwest flow and warmer 850mb temperatures. However cold air advection and a high pressure bubble is not evident in the models.
351 AM EDT Thu Mar 14 2024 A wave of low pressure will ride eastward along a warm front tonight bringing a round of showers to the region. Friday starts a cooling trend with a cold frontal passage.
342 AM EDT Thu Mar 14 2024 High pressure remains centered immediately off the Southeast coast today through Friday maintaining warm temperatures. A cold front approaches from the northwest Friday afternoon and evening bringing a chance of showers.
126 AM EDT Thu Mar 14 2024 High pressure will prevail through Thursday night. High pressure will then rebuild. Dry high pressure remains in control and clear skies will prevail.
Discussion: Currently mostly clear skies with high pressure over the region and a few passing mid to high level clouds traversing across the region. Temperatures this afternoon are once again warming up very quickly with the dry air in place, about 5 degrees warmer than what we experienced yesterday and about 10 degrees warmer than seasonal normals. Quiet weather will continue overnight and into tomorrow, with the main difference being an even warmer day ahead of the upcoming system.
1148 PM EDT Wed Mar 13 2024 Most of Thursday will be dry, but a low pressure system will bring rain showers to the region Thursday night into Friday.
1203 AM EDT Thu Mar 14 2024 High pressure remains in control through tonight. The threat for rain returns later Thursday and through Friday as low pressure tracks to our north and a cold front crosses the region. Coupled with mostly clear skies, this should allow for decent radiational cooling at least for the first half of the overnight hours before upper level clouds increase from the west ahead of approaching low pressure. This is mainly due to the placement and strength of an expected ridge and the passage of a warm front. Thunderstorms still appear possible along a crossing cold front. At this point, severe potential is on the low end.
310 AM EDT Thu Mar 14 2024 Temperatures will warm well above normal late this week as high pressure shifts offshore. Showers and thunderstorm chances will return Friday afternoon and evening as a cold front approaches.
The aforementioned cold front will sweep through the mid state Friday morning.
Showers are likely along with a few thunderstorms Friday, ahead of a cold front.
Tonight through Thursday night A tightening pressure gradient between an upper level low over UT and high pressure over the Pacific NW will maintain dry, northerly winds across the CWA through Thursday.
(Today through Friday) A strengthening mid level ridge will continue to build into South Florida through today and into Friday as well. At the surface, an area of high pressure centered over the western Atlantic will continue to slowly drift eastward. High temperatures on Thursday and Friday will range from the lower 80s across the east coast metro areas to the mid to upper 80s across interior portions of Southwest Florida.
High pressure will ridge across the area for the next several days as a front stalls across north Florida over the weekend.
Even with warmer afternoon temperatures, nights will still be cool (especially in valleys) with large diurnal ranges expected. - A cold front brings showers and thunderstorms to end the workweek.
The gradient between strong high pressure to the North and East and a low pressure trough over coastal California is supporting strong offshore winds through Friday morning. (This evening through Thursday morning) An upper-level omega blocking pattern has taken shape. Strong high pressure has built over the Pacific Northwest with the sea level pressure at Seattle-Tacoma increasing an impressive 25 mb in 36 hours. Ridging from this system is developing over the Intermountain West and interacting with a low pressure trough along the coast of California to create strong N-NE winds, particularly in the North and East Bay Mountains. By Thursday morning, the higher elevation winds will begin to mix down to the adjacent valleys.
A cold front extended southwest into Oklahoma. Temperatures will start to drop late tonight behind the front with highs 15-20 degrees cooler tomorrow.
The most impressive reading, however, comes from a ridgetop site near Kirkwood where gusts reached 181 mph! Wind gusts across lower elevation Sierra communities near the Tahoe Basin (i. While not as strong, afternoon winds in the high Sierra will remain elevated and impactful, regardless.
High pressure over the western Atlantic extending over Florida will produce light southerly flow, becoming variable at times, through the late morning, then backing onshore around 10 kts in the early afternoon once the sea breeze develops.
439 AM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024 Today and tonight: Ridging aloft will promote a strong warm, moist advection regime, which will be the primary influence of our weather in the near term. Rain and storm chances will be reinvigorated around midnight, especially along and north of the HWY 82 corridor, as a cold front sags southward.
- A cold front brings showers and thunderstorms to end the workweek.
Overall a quiet day ahead with warm and humid conditions as mid level ridging gradually builds across the area. High pressure will ridge across the area for the next several days as a front stalls across north Florida over the weekend.