Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
This afternoon, a weak surface boundary is sitting across western KS in between low pressure over western IA and near the TX panhandle.
Breezy northeast flow will continue scattered showers along the NE FL Atlantic Coastal counties with isolated thunderstorm potential over inland NE FL during peak heating into the middle 80s, but overall rainfall and storm threat remains on the low side and will quickly fade around sunset. Mostly skies are expected overnight with lows in the lower/middle 60s inland with patchy fog possible towards sunrise, while lows in the upper 60s expected along the coast.
Before dawn the Lower Matecumbe area was the first focus, then Vaca Key near and after dawn, and now the Lower Keys. The highest radar derived totals so far are 5 to 10", with some believable gauges approaching 7".
(Now through Tuesday) Dry conditions will continue across the forecast area tonight through Tuesday as deep ridging continues to build across over Mississippi, Alabama and the western Florida panhandle. Upper level troughing continues off the Atlantic coast and also over the western third of the CONUS.
A TEMPO group has been included for SUA, which has the highest chance for seeing any reductions due to convection. Mid level trough axis aloft will remain extended across the region and will combine with some lingering moisture (PW values of 1. It will remain seasonably warm behind the front, with highs ranging from the low 80s along the Volusia County coast to the low 90s over the interior, south of Orlando.
The 12Z sounding today showed ample instability and moisture in the lower levels which could support a few strong thunderstorms mainly along the sea breeze boundary over the East Coast.
Temperatures are forecast to dip below seasonal averages by the upcoming weekend as an upper level trough impacts the region. Humidity increases overnight in all but the highest elevations with lows generally in the mid-to-upper 40's to low-to-mid 50's.
Temperatures across the region are in the low to mid 80s. Warm and dry weather will remain across the Mid-South through Tuesday with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s as high pressure remains over the area.
Temperatures around the area area already well into the upper 70s and some have crossed into the low 80s.
Temperatures are currently in the low 80s along the coast to mid 80s inland, and will likely top out in the upper 80s for most interior locations later this afternoon. Dry conditions will continue across the forecast area tonight through Tuesday as deep ridging continues to build across over Mississippi, Alabama and the western Florida panhandle. Upper level troughing continues off the Atlantic coast and also over the western third of the CONUS.
107 PM EDT Mon May 20 2024 - Marginal Risk for Severe Thunderstorms Today - Warm and Humid Tuesday - Severe Weather Risk Tuesday Night - Dry and Pleasant Late Week Period - Marginal Risk for Severe Thunderstorms Today A fairly complex mesoscale pattern will evolve across our area today as a warm front just south of our area early this morning moves slowly north. However this complex of rain and convection may inhibit the warm front from moving much further north then perhaps the I-96 corridor. Localized large hail is also possible looking at fcst soundings and we also can't rule out potential for an isolated weak spinup in the vicinity of the warm front where enhanced updraft helicity is expected.
Upper-level ridge steadily building overhead as its axis is well into BC. Dry and seasonal conditions remain in store with highs today topping into the low to mid 60s across the interior. A weak upper level ridge will produce warmer and drier conditions today.
1153 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024 High pressure will ridge across the region through early week, then build south of the area through the middle of the week.
Evaporational effects with boundary layer T/Td spreads exceeding 50F and mechanical momentum transfer associated with elevated precipitation echoes along the cold front will support scattered outflows and strong, gusty winds into early this evening before activity shifts out of the forecast area. Ensemble members remain in excellent agreement with respect to the overall Conus flow pattern the remainder of the week highlighted by broad longwave troughing covering the western half of the United States.
119 PM EDT Mon May 20 2024 It will feel like summer through midweek as a ridge of high pressure at the surface and aloft maintains warm and mainly dry conditions and light winds.
(This evening through Tuesday) Upper level ridging from this weekend will begin to slide off to the east through the overnight hours tonight, putting our area in a zone of southwest flow aloft. Gusty southerly winds overnight tonight will keep overnight lows on the mild side in the low to mid 70s. Even with the 850 mb thermal ridge remaining fairly strong across our southwestern counties in the 28-30 deg C range, a lack of insolation will prevent temperatures from climbing much higher than 100 degrees tomorrow.
(This afternoon through Tuesday) A large ridge over the East CONUS will support a period of warm and dry weather. The mid-level ridge axis extends from the Lower MS Valley northeast into New England producing northwest flow aloft.
An upper level trough moving across our region will bring slightly below normal temperatures and continued gusty southwest winds today followed by moderate north winds tonight and Tuesday. A mean trough will hold over the western states this week into the holiday weekend resulting in near normal temperatures with elevated afternoon winds each day. North to northwest winds will continue to push south across southern Nevada and Inyo County overnight behind a cold front associated with the upper level trough moving through the region. The main trough will exit to the east Tuesday morning with the cold front being dragged behind it. Temperatures on Tuesday be a few degrees below normal as cold air continues to filter in behind the cold front.
134 PM PDT Mon May 20 2024 A large-scale trough over western North America will persist through this week. The high clouds from this morning have moved east with the upper level trough axis. The low clouds will continue to clear for one or two more hours before beginning to fill in the areas west of the mtns. As the trough axis moves east, the trend will be toward a shallower marine layer and weaker winds.
- Better chance for strong to severe storms with a potential squall line Tuesday night in advance of a surface cold front. Severe potential appears to be on the low side from the combination of the loss of daytime heating, limited moisture and marginal instability (just a few hundred J/kg of mixed layer cape and 0-6 km bulk shear of 30-35 knots). Highs Tuesday ranging from the low and mid 70s north to the low and mid 80s south. This will be enough forcing to push a warm front, located in southern Michigan, northward into the area, leading to rain showers and possible strong to severe thunderstorms for late Tuesday/ Tuesday night. As such, temperatures will be warmer to start off the week with daytime highs in the 70s, before more seasonable temperatures set in for later in the week.
Water vapor shows upper trof over the northwestern CONUS with lead short wave ejecting into the Northern Plains. Precipitation will continue through Tuesday across much of the area as main upper trof shifts into the Northern Plains.
For the remainder of the work week, high pressure will build over the area with warming temperatures and rather dry conditions anticipated. suppressing the ridging and allowing some deeper moisture to spread across the entire area. However, this will also mean that the low level flow will shift to a more south to southwest direction so that the highest rain chances will be over the interior and eastern half of the Florida peninsula. Weak high pressure gradually builds over the waters during the week with east to southeast flow setting up, except shifting to onshore with the sea breeze each afternoon.
This trough will eject into the central plains Tuesday morning and continue to lift northeastward from there through the day. This will place much of our area under at least weak subsidence on the backside of the wave by mid to late afternoon, although height rises look minimal as the region remains within a broader scale longwave trough to the west.
Dry and very warm weather will continue across the Mid-South through Tuesday night as high pressure remains over the region.
Highs are expected to be in the lower 90s to lower 100s out west Tuesday.
Mean-layer ridging is well to our west, placing the Keys in the dry and sinking western flank of the upper trough axis.
Temperatures are forecast to dip below seasonal averages by late week and into the upcoming weekend as an upper level trough impacts the region. Satellite imagery shows stratus starting to clear across the lower elevations of the Central Coast, a trend expected to continue through the rest of the morning. A few locations across the North and East Bays may see highs reach the low 80s.
High pressure remains in control tomorrow, with slightly warmer temperatures and mostly dry conditions. Tomorrow features a repeat of today with high pressure remaining in control. Slightly warmer temps tomorrow with highs ranging from the low to mid 80s to near 90s.
217 PM EDT Mon May 20 2024 Warm high pressure will persist across the region through the middle of the week.
128 PM EDT Mon May 20 2024 High pressure maintains dry conditions through the first half of the work week.
This may start what could be an active night with 2-3K J/kg MLCAPEs building into the state, and effective shear increasing as well as the western long wave trough nears and mid level flow increases. This may also be reinforced by an advancing MCS generated from what was High Plains peak heating convection as it maintains intensity from the low level jet associated moisture transport and convergence crossing NE into IA. Strong synoptic scale forcing should aid continued low level theta-e advection into the warm sector and also what is expected to be a line of storms forming along the associated cold front, with more widespread weaker precip to the north and west along the deformation zone.
214 PM EDT Mon May 20 2024 A high pressure system will provide hot and mostly dry weather into midweek.
1254 PM CDT Mon May 20 2024 (Today through Tuesday) 500 mb high pressure will continue to build northeast out of Mexico and increasingly be even more dominant over the BRO CWFA during the period.
(Tonight through Tuesday night) The latest GOES 16 water vapor imagery shows at 594dm ridge over northern Mexico, resulting in our rather hot and humid conditions early this afternoon. Southwest flow aloft remains west of us over west Texas and New Mexico and will remain that way through most of Tuesday until we start to see the ridge slide more eastward tomorrow evening. A cold front will enter the Texas Panhandle late Tuesday and start working southward, but don't get your hopes up, as it's unlikely to have much of any impact on our sensible weather in the short term.
932 AM PDT Mon May 20 2024 A large-scale trough over western North America will persist through this week. There are also mid and high clouds streaming across San Diego, Riverside and portions of eastern San Bernardino Counties as the upper low that was to our southwest is being drawn into the mean flow and becoming an open wave. These higher clouds and associated mixing may be affecting the low clouds which are breaking up in San Diego county at this hour. The winds may strengthen further this afternoon before weakening overnight as the upper level trough axis moves to the east. As the trough axis moves east, the trend will be toward a shallower marine layer and weaker winds.
A short wave trough aloft will approach the area early Tuesday morning resulting in a strengthening surface cyclone in the pre-dawn hours in western Kansas. As the short wave trough moves onto the Plains after sunrise the surface cyclone will deepen and move off northeastward into the Northern Plains dragging the dryline with it. Lower heights tomorrow will bring cooler temperatures but will still be well above seasonal averages.
Winds are expected to continue low end breezes (10-15KT) from 03-06Z due to a pacific cold front pushing in from the west this evening and into the overnight hours. A pacific cold front will push in from the west early tonight and will progress eastward through the early hours on Tuesday.
Most of the moisture will be concentrated in the lower levels, with the specific humidity in the surface to 850 hPa layer near the 99th percentile for this time of year. Thunderstorms are expected to develop along the cold front during the late afternoon or evening.
(Tonight) Mostly dry and warm conditions continue across the Tennessee Valley with high pressure centered just to our east. Otherwise, expect mostly clear skies with light southerly winds and lows in the low to mid 60s.
1224 PM PDT Mon May 20 2024 Several upper level waves push through the Sierra and western Nevada this week with intermittent afternoon breezes, cooler temperatures, and some late day showers and storms across the Sierra. Key Points: * Today will be the coolest of the week with near freezing temperatures possible tonight into early Tuesday.
658 PM CDT Mon May 20 2024 (This evening through Tuesday night) The ridge in the jet stream trough continues over our area through the front half of short term period.
330 PM MDT Mon May 20 2024 Upper trough from W MT into ID was sending energy NE through the forecast area this afternoon. Jet energy was also moving through the trough, contributing to the lift. The upper trough will swing through the area through Tuesday.
The axis of the trough responsible for the strong winds and light showers will pass through Arizona this evening, with decreasing clouds and lighter winds overnight. With very dry air in place, the temperatures have the potential to get quite cold tonight (and Tuesday night) with the light winds, and we're likely to see freezing temperatures in a couple of our high-elevation cold spots. The rest of the week will be dominated by low-amplitude troughing or nearly featureless zonal flow.
Showers and isolated thunderstorms present this afternoon across the eastern half of the forecast area will dissipate thru the evening as the associated upper trof continues to move east out of the forecast area.
839 PM MDT Mon May 20 2024 Scattered showers over north-central Montana are expected to push NE into southern Sask tonight as an upper low digs a bit to our north.
High pressure surface and aloft over the region is creating warm dry conditions across west central and southwest Florida this evening. For the remainder of the work week, high pressure will build over the area with warming temperatures and rather dry conditions anticipated. suppressing the ridging and allowing some deeper moisture to spread across the entire area. However, this will also mean that the low level flow will shift to a more south to southwest direction so that the highest rain chances will be over the interior and eastern half of the Florida peninsula. Weak high pressure gradually builds over the waters during the week with east to southeast flow setting up, except shifting to onshore with the sea breeze each afternoon.
Skies are clear with calm conditions areawide as a midlevel ridge of high pressure settles into the ArkLaMiss region. Dry and very warm weather will continue across the Mid-South through Tuesday night as high pressure remains over the region.
A pacific cold front will push in from the west early tonight and will progress eastward through the early hours on Tuesday.
650 PM EDT Mon May 20 2024 It will feel like summer through midweek as a ridge of high pressure at the surface and aloft maintains warm and mainly dry conditions and light winds.
701 PM EDT Mon May 20 2024 Our preview of summer weather through midweek, as a ridge of high pressure maintains warm and mainly dry conditions and light winds.
The return of stout winds to the coastal areas and exposed ridges continues through to the evening. The highest of course being on the points and exposed ridges, at or near the coast.
612 PM EDT Mon May 20 2024 Warm high pressure will persist across the region through the middle of the week.
617 PM CDT Mon May 20 2024 Dry and very warm weather will continue across the Mid-South through Tuesday night as high pressure remains over the region.
Surface winds are light to near calm with the surface ridging. 08 Previous short-term discussion: (This afternoon through Tuesday) A large ridge over the East CONUS will support a period of warm and dry weather. The mid-level ridge axis extends from the Lower MS Valley northeast into New England producing northwest flow aloft.
An upper level trough that brought scattered showers, isolated thunderstorms, and gusty winds to the area today will move east tonight, leaving clearing skies and decreasing winds in its wake. A weak upper level ridge will move overhead on Tuesday, bringing temperatures around 5 degrees warmer than today, lighter (but still breezy) winds, and mostly sunny skies. Clouds will increase late in the day as a deep upper low approaches the area.
Despite the wet and stormy day today, temperatures rebounded in the late afternoon and are have only fallen down into the lower 80s. Dew points are a little more reasonable with values in the lower to mid 70s as opposed to upper 70s to near 80.
1031 PM EDT Mon May 20 2024 Our preview of summer weather through midweek, as a ridge of high pressure maintains warm and mainly dry conditions and light winds.
914 PM EDT Mon May 20 2024 Warm high pressure will persist across the region through the middle of the week.
619 PM CDT Mon May 20 2024 (This evening through Tuesday) Upper level ridging from this weekend will begin to slide off to the east through the overnight hours tonight, putting our area in a zone of southwest flow aloft. Gusty southerly winds overnight tonight will keep overnight lows on the mild side in the low to mid 70s. Even with the 850 mb thermal ridge remaining fairly strong across our southwestern counties in the 28-30 deg C range, a lack of insolation will prevent temperatures from climbing much higher than 100 degrees tomorrow.
(Tonight) High pressure remains layered across the mid/southern Atlantic states this Mon evening, with current temp trends mainly in the 70s/near 70F. With a light return flow pattern in place, temps into early Tue again look to remain seasonably warm, with lows mainly in the lower/mid 70s, under mostly clear skies.
An upper level trough moving across our region will bring slightly below normal temperatures and continued gusty southwest winds today followed by moderate north winds tonight and Tuesday. A mean trough will hold over the western states this week into the holiday weekend resulting in near normal temperatures with elevated afternoon winds each day. This dry period will be accompanied by breezy afternoon winds and normal to slightly cooler than normal temperatures. North to northwest winds will continue to push south across southern Nevada and Inyo County overnight behind a cold front associated with the upper level trough moving through the region. The main trough will exit to the east Tuesday morning with the cold front being dragged behind it. Temperatures on Tuesday be a few degrees below normal as cold air continues to filter in behind the cold front.
721 PM EDT Mon May 20 2024 Warm high pressure will persist across the region through the middle of the week.
504 PM CDT Mon May 20 2024 (Tonight through Tuesday night) The latest GOES 16 water vapor imagery shows at 594dm ridge over northern Mexico, resulting in our rather hot and humid conditions early this afternoon. Southwest flow aloft remains west of us over west Texas and New Mexico and will remain that way through most of Tuesday until we start to see the ridge slide more eastward tomorrow evening. A cold front will enter the Texas Panhandle late Tuesday and start working southward, but don't get your hopes up, as it's unlikely to have much of any impact on our sensible weather in the short term.
759 PM CDT Mon May 20 2024 (This afternoon through Tuesday) A large ridge over the East CONUS will support a period of warm and dry weather. The mid-level ridge axis extends from the Lower MS Valley northeast into New England producing northwest flow aloft.
1027 PM EDT Mon May 20 2024 Our preview of summer weather through midweek, as a ridge of high pressure maintains warm and mainly dry conditions and light winds.
602 PM CDT Mon May 20 2024 (Tonight) Mostly dry and warm conditions continue across the Tennessee Valley with high pressure centered just to our east. Otherwise, expect mostly clear skies with light southerly winds and lows in the low to mid 60s.
As for later tonight, high pressure will build as a subsidence inversion develops. In addition, temperatures will be on the cool side yet again as lows fall into the lower 40's and even upper 30's in some valleys. There are indeed some cooler spots in the forecast area that will be in the lower 30s. Heading into Tuesday, temperatures will continue to trend warmer with high pressure in control.
Upper-level ridging has produced warmer and drier conditions today.
1142 PM EDT Mon May 20 2024 High pressure will shift offshore bringing warmer temperatures this week.
Mid level troughing remains in place across the western Atlantic stretching southwestward across Florida. Cooler temperatures along the immediate Volusia Coast, mainly in the low 80s.
Winds will diminish overnight tonight, then an area of low pressure approaching from the north will disrupt the thermal trough on Tuesday with winds and waves diminishing.
A dry (at least for Arizona) longwave troughing pattern will remain over the western states into the coming weekend.
Scattered showers and an isolated storm possible this afternoon and evening as NE flow south of surface ridging over the E Seaboard extending down into the state advects Atlantic moisture across the area and the E-W coast sea breezes interact initially over the interior before spreading toward the W FL coast.
1132 PM EDT Mon May 20 2024 Our preview of summer weather through midweek, as a ridge of high pressure maintains warm and mainly dry conditions and light winds.
226 AM EDT Tue May 21 2024 High pressure provides unseasonably warm and mostly dry weather today.
Moderate north winds and a few degrees of cooling will occur today behind a low pressure system moving away toward the Rockies. A mean trough will hold over the western states this week into the holiday weekend resulting in near normal temperatures with elevated afternoon winds each day.
854 PM PDT Mon May 20 2024 A large-scale trough over western North America will persist through this week. The upper level short wave trough continues to move east on Tuesday with a weaker long wave trough remaining across the Western US.
335 AM EDT Tue May 21 2024 High pressure will shift offshore bringing warmer temperatures this week.
Temperatures are forecast to dip below seasonal averages by the upcoming weekend as an upper level trough impacts the region. Highs topped out in the upper 60s to lower 80s inland, but much cooler at the coast with highs in the upper 50s to 60s. Humidity increases overnight in all but the highest elevations with lows generally in the mid-to-upper 40's to low-to-mid 50's.
Tonight mostly clear skies to start with some higher clouds moving in late will allow for temperatures to fall to slightly warmer lows by the morning, with some patchy fog possible.
250 AM MDT Tue May 21 2024 - Relatively active pattern expected through Memorial Day weekend 08z surface analysis had low over central NE with front into southwest MN and trough into the eastern Dakotas. Another upper trough over MT/ID.
(Today and tonight) High pressure centered northeast of the area will maintain light easterly winds across the region today with winds along the coast turning onshore with a sea breeze passage later this afternoon.
1124 PM EDT Mon May 20 2024 Our preview of summer weather through midweek, as a ridge of high pressure maintains warm and mainly dry conditions and light winds.