Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
601 AM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024 (Today and tonight) The upper level ridge will maintain its control over our area today, keeping the forecast hot and dry again. In fact, 850mb temperatures will warm a degree or so across the area, likely resulting in highs being 1 or 2 degrees warmer as well.
609 AM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024 (Today through Wednesday) Another hot day expected across the region as upper level heights/thicknesses remain elevated with the close proximity to the mid level ridge across the Gulf of Mexico and southwest Atlantic. Still expecting hot conditions again being on the northwest periphery of the upper ridge. A bit better rain chance on Wednesday during the afternoon and evening, but largely the highest POPs will be found just beyond the scope of the short term period.
622 AM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024 - A cooler but still hot day today with afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms - Unseasonable cool temperatures expected for mid week and through the weekend. Central Kansas will be as much as 14-16 degrees cooler today. Cloud cover and cooler air will continue to push into the region through the afternoon. Areas of far Southeast Kansas are the most likely areas to see the higher heat indices. The extended range indicates a series of Canadian high pressure systems pushing into the region.
554 AM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024 Updated aviation portion for 12Z TAF issuance - Turning cooler and much less humid the next couple days, with only a small chance of precipitation. and Wednesday A cold front was moving through the far SE part of the forecast area early this morning, and associated thunderstorms were shifting to our east.
406 AM MDT Tue Jul 16 2024 High pressure will continue to bring hot and dry weather for the remainder of the week.
614 AM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024 (Today through Wednesday) High pressure remains generally in control through the short term period, with the mid-level ridge slightly pivoting west to settle across the Four Corners mid-week.
(Tuesday through Wednesday) Just a little warmer this morning with more lower 80s at Tyler, Henderson and Shreveport Regional, and once again Downtown has honors at 83 last hour. There are a handful of 75 degree readings for the lower bound of this muggy air. /24/ (Wednesday Night through Tuesday) The SPC remains focused northward with the upper low storm tracking and keeping the southern plains under a General Risk for all 3 days. The convection will bring clouds and cooler temps to round out this week and weekend as the rain chances spring back over our area. Midweek will see that 1024mb air mass a little deeper across the plains, ridging down across the upper and middle MS River Valley.
Meanwhile, a low level ridge axis remains parked just to our north, which is maintaining an east to southeast wind regime across the area. For now dew points are still on the high side ranging from 75 to near 80 degrees with current temperatures in the mid to upper 80s. Atlantic ridging will remain across the Florida Peninsula through the duration of the forecast. This is also the lowest temperature ever recorded in July.
604 AM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024 (Today through Wednesday Night) With the slightly drier air mass remaining in place over SE TX, rain chances should stay on the low side today (~20%). Aloft, the synoptic pattern where SE TX ling- ers in the weakness region between the ridging will persist. mid 90s in the Piney Woods down to the I-10 corridor, and then the lower 90s at and near the coast for today (and likely tomorrow).
(Today through Wednesday Night) With the slightly drier air mass remaining in place over SE TX, rain chances should stay on the low side today (~20%). Aloft, the synoptic pattern where SE TX ling- ers in the weakness region between the ridging will persist. mid 90s in the Piney Woods down to the I-10 corridor, and then the lower 90s at and near the coast for today (and likely tomorrow).
654 AM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024 (Today through Wednesday) We will remain in a warmer, but wetter pattern for the next 2 days. At the same time a ridge of warm air remains on top of the area, so temperatures will once again climb into the low to mid 90s. With these temperatures and the higher humidity, it will feel like 105 to 108 across a good portion of the area today and most likely Wednesday as well.
On Wednesday, an upper level trough (currently located offshore of northern California) will rotate clockwise around the warm upper ridge in place over the Northern Rockies.
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: For the remainder of the week, the western ridge will push eastward over the northern Rockies with warming temperatures.
- Cooler today with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s. Despite the still humid conditions out there early this morning, cooler temperatures have begun to slowly fill in behind the boundary. The airmass change comes thanks to the upper level trough that continues to dig in from the north and push aside the upper ridging over the southwest CONUS. The northern chances will be associated with the trough digging south, as a focused area of mid-level moisture transport pools moisture along an approaching low level boundary.
This will likely remain the focus for more additional activity today into tonight, though will have to monitor for widely scattered convection to redevelop locally as moderate diurnal instability takes place on the northern fringe of the stable bubble and incoming synoptic cold front. An upper level trough will amplify southeast through the Great Lakes Wednesday into Wednesday night with low chances for a few additional showers along the associated synoptic cold front. A low level anticyclone then follows in behind this front through this weekend with comfortable humidity and dry conditions.
- Temperatures trend a little cooler through Wednesday, then warming into the weekend.
810 AM EDT Tue Jul 16 2024 Storm chances continue across the Ohio River Valley before drier weather and seasonable temperatures return behind a Wednesday cold front. KEY MESSAGES: - Active weather continues until the passage of a cold front on Wednesday. __________________________________________________________________ Uncertainty in the forecast continues as upstream development will largely dictate our weather until the passage of a Wednesday cold front.
The broader pattern features the mid/upper level high near the Four Corners region and this continues to result in easterly mid level winds.
with many interior valleys forecasted to be 5 or so degrees cooler today than yesterday. This cooler trend continues through the work week as troughing persists aloft, with near seasonably normal temperatures each day. Ridging may build aloft this weekend, potentially bringing a return of triple-digit temperatures across the interior. Stratus has developed just to the west of Ukiah as well this morning, and local profiler data from Bodega Bay indicates that the marine layer is right on the threshold of deep enough to spill over the ridges. Low pressure offshore has disrupted the normal summertime pattern resulting in southerly winds that extend into southern Oregon and persist through mid day Wednesday. Winds will gradually turn northerly through the day on Wednesday as the high settles NW of the area and the thermal low strengthens inland.
822 AM EDT Tue Jul 16 2024 The pattern remains fairly stagnant through the forecast period with the sub-tropical ridge axis extending across the Florida Peninsula through the rest of the week, setting up light flow generally out of the southeast. Atlantic high pressure will continue to ridge across Florida and into the eastern Gulf of Mexico through the rest of the week.
644 AM EDT Tue Jul 16 2024 (Today and tonight) A bit of troughing over the southeast CONUS along with ample moisture will allow for more scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms across the area today. The highest coverage is expected across Florida counties along the seabreeze, but additional activity is also expected across the region. Highs today are forecast in the low to mid 90s with max heat indices in the 105 to 108 degree range.
505 AM EDT Tue Jul 16 2024 Storm chances continue across the Ohio River Valley before drier weather and seasonable temperatures return behind a Wednesday cold front. KEY MESSAGES: - Active weather continues until the passage of a cold front on Wednesday. __________________________________________________________________ Uncertainty in the forecast continues as upstream development will largely dictate our weather until the passage of a Wednesday cold front.
856 AM EDT Tue Jul 16 2024 Persistent low-level ridging continues across the central FL peninsula. Generally favorable boating conditions are forecast to persist across the local Atlantic waters as an area of high pressure remains in place across the western Atlantic.
542 AM EDT Tue Jul 16 2024 Storm chances continue across the Ohio River Valley before drier weather and seasonable temperatures return behind a Wednesday cold front. KEY MESSAGES: - Active weather continues until the passage of a cold front on Wednesday. __________________________________________________________________ Uncertainty in the forecast continues as upstream development will largely dictate our weather until the passage of a Wednesday cold front.
633 AM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024 - Chances of thunderstorms today as a cold front/outflow boundary drops south through the region.
553 AM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024 - As a cold front slows across northeast Kansas, a series of impulses trigger scattered storms this morning through the evening hours. The cooler airmass arrives Wednesday morning as gusty northeast winds in the afternoon bring high temperatures down to the lower and middle 80s.
Morning WV imagery show a narrow mid/upper trough axis extending from SW to NE over the area and continues to cut off in the upper levels around east TX/west LA. The rest of the morning will be relatively quiet as 12Z morning sounding observations show limited moisture in the low levels, with a strong capped environment near the mid levels (especially near 700mb). /DL/ Wednesday will spark the beginning of a pattern change across the region, with a low level ridge maximizing across the southeast CONUS ahead of an upper trough expected to extend southwards into the Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley. Increased heights and westerly flow will prompt dangerous heat conditions across the region, with highs in the upper 90s and lows in the lower to middle 70s on Wednesday.
A rather expansive upper-level high pressure system will remain spinning over the four-corners region through the mid portions of this week. Look for high temperatures a little closer to normal with readings in the low to mid 90s today. Main synoptic features include a large upper level high pressure system rotating over the four-corners area today with a weak upper trough in the eastern Pacific, west of California. By Wednesday and Wednesday night, the upper level ridge remain fairly stationary over the four-corners region.
613 AM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024 (Today through Wednesday afternoon) A quiet pattern with ridging over the Four Corners region continues. Subsidence associated with the ridge will keep cloud cover low, allowing temperatures to warm into the 90s today, with triple digits along the Pecos River over the Reeves County plains and Stockton plateau, eastern Permian Basin, and along the Rio Grande. As a result of lower cloud cover and rain chances and a stronger low level thermal ridge today, highs will be a few degrees above average for mid July. We don't quite reach Heat Advisory criteria but come close in the Low Rolling Plains today. Ridging over the Four Corners doesn't move much tomorrow, so we are expecting similar conditions to today, with 90s and triple digits along the Pecos River and Rio Grande and over the eastern Permian Basin.
639 AM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024 (Tuesday through Wednesday) Just a little warmer this morning with more lower 80s at Tyler, Henderson and Shreveport Regional, and once again Downtown has honors at 83 last hour. There are a handful of 75 degree readings for the lower bound of this muggy air. /24/ (Wednesday Night through Tuesday) The SPC remains focused northward with the upper low storm tracking and keeping the southern plains under a General Risk for all 3 days. The convection will bring clouds and cooler temps to round out this week and weekend as the rain chances spring back over our area. Midweek will see that 1024mb air mass a little deeper across the plains, ridging down across the upper and middle MS River Valley.
This will keep highs a tad cooler than previously thought (89-96 degrees). Despite the cooler temperatures, believe pooling ahead of the outflow boundary of higher dewpoints will still allow heat index values to climb to between 105 and 107 degrees this afternoon for locations west of Cullman to Lincoln counties.
1155 AM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024 (Today and tonight) The upper level ridge will maintain its control over our area today, keeping the forecast hot and dry again. In fact, 850mb temperatures will warm a degree or so across the area, likely resulting in highs being 1 or 2 degrees warmer as well.
The southwest is expected to reach the low to mid 80s Wednesday.
On Wednesday, an upper-level trough currently offshore of northern California will rotate clockwise around the warm upper ridge over the Northern Rockies.
Low level high pressure ridge will continue to stretch east to west across the central Florida peninsula through the work week.
/44/ (Tuesday through Wednesday) Just a little warmer this morning with more lower 80s at Tyler, Henderson and Shreveport Regional, and once again Downtown has honors at 83 last hour. There are a handful of 75 degree readings for the lower bound of this muggy air. /24/ (Wednesday Night through Tuesday) The SPC remains focused northward with the upper low storm tracking and keeping the southern plains under a General Risk for all 3 days. The convection will bring clouds and cooler temps to round out this week and weekend as the rain chances spring back over our area. Midweek will see that 1024mb air mass a little deeper across the plains, ridging down across the upper and middle MS River Valley.
1233 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024 - Chances of thunderstorms today as a cold front/outflow boundary drops south through the region.
Issued by National Weather Service Gaylord MI 331 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024 - Few early shower/thunderstorm chances this evening? - Bit cooler and less humid Wednesday.
Upper level trough over the Hudson Bay continues to shift southeastward today and tonight, with a weak short wave moving down from Canada. Winds go variable overnight, with dew point depressions in the low single digits to zero. Upper level ridging out in the western United States will extend into the Canadian Rockies bringing northerly flow to eastern North Dakota and northwestern Minnesota.
Areas closer to the coast will see cooler temperatures with highs ranging from the low 60s to low 70s.
Persistent low-level ridging continues across the central FL peninsula. Generally favorable boating conditions are forecast to persist across the local Atlantic waters as an area of high pressure remains in place across the western Atlantic.
1202 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024 (Today through Wednesday Night) With the slightly drier air mass remaining in place over SE TX, rain chances should stay on the low side today (~20%). Aloft, the synoptic pattern where SE TX ling- ers in the weakness region between the ridging will persist. mid 90s in the Piney Woods down to the I-10 corridor, and then the lower 90s at and near the coast for today (and likely tomorrow).
1236 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024 (Today through Wednesday) High pressure remains generally in control through the short term period, with the mid-level ridge slightly pivoting west to settle across the Four Corners mid-week.
1238 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024 (Today through Wednesday afternoon) A quiet pattern with ridging over the Four Corners region continues. Subsidence associated with the ridge will keep cloud cover low, allowing temperatures to warm into the 90s today, with triple digits along the Pecos River over the Reeves County plains and Stockton plateau, eastern Permian Basin, and along the Rio Grande. As a result of lower cloud cover and rain chances and a stronger low level thermal ridge today, highs will be a few degrees above average for mid July. We don't quite reach Heat Advisory criteria but come close in the Low Rolling Plains today. Ridging over the Four Corners doesn't move much tomorrow, so we are expecting similar conditions to today, with 90s and triple digits along the Pecos River and Rio Grande and over the eastern Permian Basin.
300 PM MDT Tue Jul 16 2024 Warm and mostly dry weather continues for the foreseeable future as upper level ridging remains parked over the area.
South Texas remains under the influence of two high-pressure systems during this forecast period, with a ridge over the Four Corners region slowly propagating eastward into the Southern Plains and another ridge over the central Gulf Coast. Models indicate a deepening trough over the High Plains and Upper Midwest, which will move southeastward tomorrow. Lows tonight and tomorrow night will range from the mid-70s to the low 80s. High tomorrow will peak in the low-to-mid 90s across the eastern CWA, with upper 90s to low 100s expected out west.
The cooler airmass arrives Wednesday morning as gusty northeast winds in the afternoon bring high temperatures down to the lower and middle 80s.
Visible satellite does show the cirrus thinning from north to south, so a couple locations could get to 95-98 degrees and with dew points in the low to mid 70s, the heat index value could touch 105.
220 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024 - Pleasant weather ahead! A cooler, less humid, and drier forecast through the rest of the week. Satellite imagery and RAP progs show an upper level trough which is forecast to move down across the Great Lakes into Wednesday, with a wave currently moving across the region. An amplified upper level pattern will remain as a strong ridge holds across the western U. and a trough over the east-central U. At the surface Canadian high pressure looks to dominate over the region bringing cooler conditions and less humid air.
Along and north of the boundary, highs may be a smidge cooler with greater cloud cover, but with weaker winds and greater humidity.
- Near to below normal temperatures will continue through the weekend as cooler air funnels into the region. The Short Term (Today & Tonight): A cooler day is ahead! Taking a look across the area, cooler air continues to funnel into the region behind yesterday's cold front. Looking a radar, a few scattered showers continue to develop across portions of western ND and southcentral SD in response to bits of isentropic lift associated with the rotating Hudson Bay trough in Canada along with support from the right entrance region of an upper-level jet. Lastly, expect a much cooler night as colder air continues to makes it way to the surface.
Today through Wednesday night: Upper level ridge will have its axis placed over Northwest Montana through most of this time interval. This will allow for a warm/hot southwest flow on the west side of the ridge axis to continue to allow for a warming trend through Wednesday and beyond.
But the low cloud deck didn't even cover most of Los Angeles. But the holes in the low cloud deck over the water might put holes in this clearing theory.
Issued by National Weather Service Paducah KY 223 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024 - Cooler and drier air will continue to spread across the area through mid week. We are looking at a dry period of weather tonight through Wednesday night as lower dew point air works south across the area due to high pressure building over the northern Plains and Upper Midwest. Lows will be down into the 60s tonight, with cooler 50s Wednesday night. The aforementioned high pressure system will continue southeast through the end of the work week, with temperatures a bit below average and dry weather continuing. The overall pattern will be one where a strong upper level ridge will be set up over the Four Corners region, with a persistent upper trof over the eastern CONUS.
Rain chances will begin to dwindle down across east and southeast MS later in the overnight period as global guidance continues to highlight an upper level ridge over the southeast CONUS. Later on Wednesday, the aforementioned ridge will maximize across the southeast CONUS ahead of an upper trough expected to extend southward into the Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley. A 590 dam upper level trough pushing down from the Mid-Ms Valley will be the primary source of weather as it continues its track towards the area signaling a change to current weather regime were in.
236 PM EDT Tue Jul 16 2024 The pattern remains fairly stagnant through the forecast period with the sub-tropical ridge axis extending across the Florida Peninsula through the rest of the week, setting up light flow generally out of the southeast. Atlantic high pressure will continue to ridge across Florida and into the eastern Gulf of Mexico through the rest of the week.
Expect rain chances to increase tonight as a cold front approaches the Mid-South.
1149 AM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024 Hot and humid conditions will continue this afternoon ahead of approaching cold front. This forcing regime will slowly spread eastward along the corridor of mid level moisture through the day with a gradual weakening of the low level winds.
This will likely remain the focus for more additional activity today into tonight, though will have to monitor for widely scattered convection to redevelop locally as moderate diurnal instability takes place on the northern fringe of the stable bubble and incoming synoptic cold front. An upper level trough will amplify southeast through the Great Lakes Wednesday into Wednesday night with low chances for a few additional showers along the associated synoptic cold front. A low level anticyclone then follows in behind this front through this weekend with comfortable humidity and dry conditions. Given the location of the cold front and the ongoing stratus at KSBN, thunderstorms there seem unlikely.
1103 AM MDT Tue Jul 16 2024 High pressure will continue to bring hot and dry weather for the remainder of the week. Some cloud builds and perhaps a storm or two can also be expected in Southwest MT, mostly over the higher terrain along the MT/ID border. High pressure will continue to bring hot, dry, and seasonably breezy conditions for the remainder of the week.
1242 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024 Hot and humid conditions will continue this afternoon ahead of approaching cold front. This forcing regime will slowly spread eastward along the corridor of mid level moisture through the day with a gradual weakening of the low level winds.
A few more showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible tonight and Wednesday as a cold front slowly crosses the eastern Great Lakes.
1259 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024 Updated aviation portion for 18Z TAF issuance - Turning cooler and much less humid the next couple days, with only a small chance of precipitation. and Wednesday A cold front was moving through the far SE part of the forecast area early this morning, and associated thunderstorms were shifting to our east.
The unsettled pattern continues on Wednesday as the base of an upper trough moves into the TN/Mid-MS Valley region. With the base of the upper trough nudging closer to the area Wednesday night, we do not expect the convection to dissipate during evening but continue through the overnight period. Highs in the mid 90s inland and around 90 to the lower 90s along the coast combined with dewpoints in the 70s will result in heat indices between 105-110 over much of the area on Wednesday.
Temps have been a bit cooler especially in that NW Georgia area due to the cloud cover. (Today through Wednesday) Temps are running about 3-7F degrees cooler than this time last night thanks to the storms that covered a good portion of north and central GA yesterday afternoon/evening.