Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
148 AM EDT Tue Apr 16 2024 -High pressure over the Upper Great Lakes will build Southeast into the region tonight and Tuesday with dry conditions and light wind. A ridge of high pressure at the surface and aloft will extend through the CWA Tuesday, followed by its associated upper ridge axis moving over the Ohio/PA state line around midnight Tuesday night. Cirrus, then sct- bkn Altocu will spread east into the region Tuesday night, to the north of an approaching warm front that will extend from Central Oh through Southern PA.
145 AM EDT Tue Apr 16 2024 High pressure will persist through the end of the week. A cold front is then forecast to impact our area this weekend. Tonight: Conditions will remain quiet with high pressure extending across the local area from the western Atlantic. Ridging will prevail aloft on Tuesday, slowly transitioning to zonal flow on Wednesday as a mid-level trough traverses the Mid-Atlantic states.
524 AM EDT Tue Apr 16 2024 A warm front will push northward across the area today. This front will return northward later today as a warm front. Meso NAM shows effective layer CAPE of over 2000 at CRW and HTS this afternoon with a freezing level around 11000 feet. Models showing a line of showers and thunderstorms in Ohio moving eastward by daybreak Wednesday, ahead of an approaching cold front. Wednesday night the cold front with the aforementioned low approaches. Cooling aloft combined with low level moisture pooling along the frontal surface should yield some modest instability, 1000- 1500J/kg MLCAPE, modest deep layer shear of 30-35KTs, and some modest turning in the low level wind field.
An approaching cold front will increase pressure gradients this afternoon resulting in some gusty westerly winds.
Current temperatures are a little milder compared to 24 hours ago and generally range from the 30s and 40s in the mountains to the lower to mid 50s across the Central Valley. Upper level ridging from the eastern Pacific will dominate the synoptic pattern this week.
The highest precipitation chances are across central and eastern North Dakota. - Cooler temperatures start today and will continue into the weekend.
- Warm conditions today with cooler readings late week. The warm front was lifting north early this AM and was just south of the CWA in NE MO. The warm front is expected to lift north of I-80 by midday and into the Highway 20 corridor by early evening. Opted to hold off on a wind advisory since the higher gusts may be convectively induced and don't want to convolute the message. CAMS are not showing much with this wave, thus the low confidence. Some of the higher totals are slated to fall NW of a line from Iowa City to Freeport, which will be beneficial to the drought areas in IA.
A closed low continues to move across south central Nebraska and north central Kansas during the day Tuesday. A cold front will move through the region, with cooler air filtering in behind it. Highs will range from the mid-60s in the northwestern portion of the area, to the low to mid-70s in the eastern portions of our Nebraska counties and north central Kansas.
Otherwise, surface ridging is centered just off the coast of the SE US with SRLY flow in the lower levels into AL. This low is expected to swing to the E and NE toward the Great Lakes through the short term. Across C AL, we will have a zonal to WSW flow in the upper levels as the low progresses, with some perturbations traversing through this flow.
Even with some clouds in the area, there is plenty of sunshine along the island chain this morning with temperatures currently in the upper 70s, and dew points in the lower 60s. High pressure will continue to slide into the west- central Atlantic. A secondary high pressure moving in from the the Gulf and eventually over Florida will result in modestly slackened east to southeast breezes for the end of the week and into the weekend.
639 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024 (Today through Wednesday) Key Messages: â¶ Heat indices in excess of 100 degrees Tuesday and Wednesday â¶ Patchy fog possible in the Victoria Crossroads and portions of the Coastal Plains Conditions are expected to be pretty warm today and tomorrow as we are being influenced by an area of high pressure in the Gulf of Mexico. Temperatures will climb to the lower to upper 90s in portion of the Coastal Plains and Brush Country. This front will likely remain to the north and stall over Central Texas due to the influence of the high over the Gulf.
This dry layer should shift northeast as moist BL conditions arrive from the south long the leading edge of an approaching warm front (already seeing this trend in SD). This mid/upper low will be responsible for waves or organized rain and embedded thunder through tonight/Wednesday morning as it transitions east-northeast. The main period of rainfall should be today with strong forcing and organization along deformation and and inverted trough axis.
1054 AM EDT Tue Apr 16 2024 Another weak cold front moves across the region by this evening but with little in the way of noticeable effects other than some gusty winds.
As for winds, 1/2km winds show a 40kt low level jet into the eastern CWA this morning, while winds begin shifting around the low to the northwest across the Missouri valley this afternoon.
635 AM EDT Tue Apr 16 2024 Another weak cold front moves across the region by this evening but with little in the way of noticeable effects other than some gusty winds.
Skies will be mostly sunny each day, though a weak trough may bring in some clouds for the latter part of the week (sorry, not enough moisture for rain!).
818 AM EDT Tue Apr 16 2024 High pressure and upper ridging will build over the southeastern states during the first part of the week resulting in warm and dry conditions. A cold front will bring a chance of showers and thunderstorms late week. The front may stall near the area late in the weekend with cooler temperatures and scattered showers. High pressure is located offshore to our east with a mature mid- latitude cyclone spinning through the Upper Midwest. Ridge ahead of this disturbance is inducing northwest flow aloft across the area, with some passing mainly high level clouds. Temperatures across the region fairly mild in the low to mid 60s with the exception of KAGS where the temperature is 55. For the rest of today, upper heights over the area should increase slightly with the upper ridge shifting eastward.
This mid/upper low will be responsible for waves or organized rain and embedded thunder through tonight/Wednesday morning as it transitions east-northeast. The main period of rainfall should be today with strong forcing and organization along deformation and and inverted trough axis.
538 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024 (Today) Scattered showers and weak thunderstorms are moving across parts of the area this morning ahead of a Pacific cold front, and this activity will continue east out of the area by early afternoon at the latest.
Gusty northerly winds expected in coastal areas through mid-week as high pressure builds into the region. Skies are mostly clear across the CWA as a high pressure ridge builds into the region. WAA ahead of the building ridge will allow daytime temperatures to steadily climb into the 70's within interior valleys for the next several days - NBM has 50-60% probabilities of temperatures exceeding 75 degrees in interior Mendocino and Lake counties by Wednesday afternoon. Long range models are indicating a minor breakdown in the high pressure ridge late this week, causing northerly winds to subside and shift further offshore. This will give the marine layer a chance to deepen and spread further inland beneath broad high pressure subsidence, dampening daytime warming.
716 AM EDT Tue Apr 16 2024 (Today and tonight) High pressure will prevail through tonight with clear skies, dry temperatures, warm temperatures, and breezy winds in the afternoon.
(Today) Scattered showers and weak thunderstorms are moving across parts of the area this morning ahead of a Pacific cold front, and this activity will continue east out of the area by early afternoon at the latest.
733 AM EDT Tue Apr 16 2024 High pressure will lead to unseasonably warm and quiet weather through midweek. A weak back door front resides to the north of the area as Bermuda High Pressure continues to control the weather across the area. Otherwise a very warm forecast remains in place with overnight lows in the lower 60s and Wednesday's highs perhaps just a shade lower than today with middle 80s. Lows in the lower 60s.
(Rest of Today) A broad warm sectored airmass will exist today across much of the Southeast, as upper ridging is slowly pushed east by a closed upper low tracking through the northern Plains. Will see a temporary decrease in cloud cover this afternoon, and southerly flow will keep highs in the low to mid 80s once again today. Southerly winds will also increase through the day as a tightening pressure gradient develops in response to the previously mentioned upper low.
Dry today with temperatures trending warmer. As the recent upper level low continues to exit off to the east early this morning, skies across northern and central will be mostly clear. Dry with warmer temperatures across the CWA today with the region under a westerly flow aloft.
The next low pressure system approaches the region by the middle of the week. Back-door cold front now extended from just west of Lewisburg to west of Hillsville as seen in the wind field and pressure rises. Along the frontal boundary today, expecting some thunderstorms to develop again, but coverage will again be limited and looks to be more confined to west of the Blue Ridge. Rain/storms will be limited east of the Blue Ridge due to a more stable northeast flow. Temperatures today still warm, but a few degrees cooler than yesterday. Key Messages: 1: Scattered showers and storms Wednesday 2: Temperatures well above normal By Wednesday, a warm front just to the north of our area will continue its slow progression northward.
Upper ridging over our area today gradually gives way to more zonal flow aloft as a trough works its way across the Midwest states Wednesday. Given how far removed the trough is from us, not expecting anything more than a perhaps a sprinkle or two over far interior portions of southeastern Mississippi into interior southwestern Alabama Wednesday afternoon. Overnight lows will be warm, with temperatures only falling into the lower to middle 60's.
722 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024 (Today through Wednesday) Upper ridging extended from the Gulf of Mexico to Wisconsin this morning, with an upper low near the Colorado-Kansas border. At the surface, high pressure extended from northeast of Bermuda to the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Low pressure was noted over Nebraska with a frontal boundary eastward to the Virginia-North Carolina border. The upper low will continue to move northeast over the next 36 hours as it gradually gets absorbed by a stronger system over the Canadian Prairie Provinces.
940 AM EDT Tue Apr 16 2024 A warm front will push northward across the area today. Warm front remains draped overhead today and will begin sprouting isolated showers and storms later on this afternoon. This front will return northward later today as a warm front. Meso NAM shows effective layer CAPE of over 2000 at CRW and HTS this afternoon with a freezing level around 11000 feet. Models showing a line of showers and thunderstorms in Ohio moving eastward by daybreak Wednesday, ahead of an approaching cold front. Wednesday night the cold front with the aforementioned low approaches. Cooling aloft combined with low level moisture pooling along the frontal surface should yield some modest instability, 1000- 1500J/kg MLCAPE, modest deep layer shear of 30-35KTs, and some modest turning in the low level wind field.
Looking at the current water vapor imagery, our area is in zonal flow with an upper level low over southwest Canada. Models continue to show this upper level low and associated cold front over Canada to drop south today into Wednesday grazing our northeast area by Island Park. This cold front and breezy zonal flow will keep winds elevated for the Shoshone, Arco Desert, Eastern Magic Valley, and the Snake Plain regions.
608 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024 (Today through Wednesday) 500 mb high pressure will continue to be the dominant feature influencing Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley during the period, which will produce dry weather across the BRO CWFA. This will be especially true today, as the approach of a weak cold front produces a downsloping effect off of the high terrain of neighboring Mexico.
Temperatures will be well above normal tomorrow, with highs mainly in the lower 90s, although some mid 90s will be possible across portions of the northwest Hill Country.
1222 PM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024 (Today through Wednesday) Upper ridging extended from the Gulf of Mexico to Wisconsin this morning, with an upper low near the Colorado-Kansas border. At the surface, high pressure extended from northeast of Bermuda to the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Low pressure was noted over Nebraska with a frontal boundary eastward to the Virginia-North Carolina border. The upper low will continue to move northeast over the next 36 hours as it gradually gets absorbed by a stronger system over the Canadian Prairie Provinces.
Southerly winds have intensified this afternoon thanks to the combination of diurnal heating and a tightening pressure gradient tied to an upper low currently over northeast NE. As the low continues to occlude well to our north, we will become further displaced from the better synoptic forcing. PoPs increase from west to east between midnight and 6am, with the highest chances (30-60%) for showers and storms west of I-65.
The mid level ridging may begin to break down and become more zonal tomorrow as a low moves into the Great Lakes and a trough moves into the Ohio Valley. At the surface, high pressure will continue through the overnight hours.
Weather similar to today continues through the rest of the week with high temperatures in the lower to mid 80s and overnight lows in the mid 70s.
(This afternoon through Wednesday night) Early this afternoon, skies were clear behind a cold front with temperatures in the upper 70s to low 80s. Weak high pressure was filling in across eastern New Mexico and west Texas.
1011 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024 (Today through Wednesday) Upper ridging extended from the Gulf of Mexico to Wisconsin this morning, with an upper low near the Colorado-Kansas border. At the surface, high pressure extended from northeast of Bermuda to the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Low pressure was noted over Nebraska with a frontal boundary eastward to the Virginia-North Carolina border. The upper low will continue to move northeast over the next 36 hours as it gradually gets absorbed by a stronger system over the Canadian Prairie Provinces.
- Near normal temperatures for Wednesday, trending cooler for the rest of the work week. Wed afternoon and night should be mainly dry, although energy rotating around an upper low over south central Canada could bring some showers to southern South Dakota at that time. A slowly progressive, broad upper trof centered over SC Canada and the northern CONUS will be the main influence through much of the period.
1251 PM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024 (Today through Wednesday) 500 mb high pressure will continue to be the dominant feature influencing Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley during the period, which will produce dry weather across the BRO CWFA. This will be especially true today, as the approach of a weak cold front produces a downsloping effect off of the high terrain of neighboring Mexico.
This should allow for better heating leading to our highs today still reaching the low to mid 80s. The low is currently over Nebraska and is forecasted to track NE into Iowa and then Michigan.
255 PM EDT Tue Apr 16 2024 High pressure will push eastward tonight as low pressure tracks into the Great Lakes.
Precipitation will spread across northern portions through the night, with rain changing over to snow in the lower elevations by sunrise Wednesday morning.
High pressure lingers over the western Atlantic through mid-week, with the ridge axis placed north of the area, across north Florida. Coastal areas east of I-95 will remain in the lower 80s.
239 PM EDT Tue Apr 16 2024 Convection continues along a warm front pushing northward across the area into tonight. Early morning capping inversion has been quickly overtaken by diurnal heating, with several areas in the central lowlands already in the low to mid 80s. A warm front draped through the forecast area will lift slightly to the north over the next several hours, driving storms from the southern coalfields upon initial materialization towards the north and east. Freezing levels around 10,000ft will support hail within any healthy and strong storm. This will drag in a cold front, slated for the short term forecast to pass overhead, but will maintain a moist and unstable environment in the meantime.
A low pressure system tracking through the Great Lakes will push a cold front through the region this weekend. Key Message: - Scattered showers and storms in the mountains this evening - Isolated storms on Wednesday Back-door cold front now extended from eastern West Virginia to the North Carolina/Tennessee border. Latest guidance suggests this front will not move much tonight then retreats north as a warm front throughout the day Wednesday. Any precipitation east of the Blue Ridge will be isolated and weak.
A low pressure system tracking through the Great Lakes will push a cold front through the region this weekend. Key Message: - Scattered showers and storms in the mountains this evening - Isolated storms on Wednesday Back-door cold front now extended from eastern West Virginia to the North Carolina/Tennessee border. Latest guidance suggests this front will not move much tonight then retreats north as a warm front throughout the day Wednesday. Any precipitation east of the Blue Ridge will be isolated and weak. Key Messages: 1: Scattered showers and storms Wednesday 2: Temperatures well above normal By Wednesday, a warm front just to the north of our area will continue its slow progression northward.
We'll warm nicely with highs in the low to mid 80s with passing mid-high clouds. Winds will remain southerly at 5-10 mph with low-level ridging parked to our southeast. Forcing is also quite low, with little convergence in the low-levels and best support aloft well to our north.
An upper level ridge axis gradually slides eastward through the period and becomes positioned out over the western Atlantic as an upper trough pushes across the Midwestern US. Given how far removed the upper trough is from the local area, we are not expecting anything more than a perhaps a sprinkle or two over far interior portions of southeastern Mississippi into interior southwestern Alabama Wednesday afternoon. Low temperatures tonight drop down into the 60s with highs on Wednesday warming back into the lower 80s inland with upper 70s along the immediate coastal interface. /14 (Wednesday night through Tuesday) Upper ridging over the central Gulf of Mexico will maintain a generally zonal flow over our forecast area and help to deflect any weather systems north of the central Gulf coast through the early part of the weekend.
Another ridge of high pressure will move in to the region from the west, bringing further warming and calmer winds.
At the surface, low-end windy conditions in wake of the Pacific cold front will continue through dusk, with winds diminishing thereafter as a secondary, weaker front moves in from the TX PH. Cross-barrier flow aloft will maintain lee cyclogenesis to the northwest of the CWA tomorrow afternoon, with an expectation for the high-level cirrus shield to eclipse the southern portions of the CWA tomorrow before shifting off to the east as a shallow, low-amplitude trough pivots across northern Mexico.
Temperatures on Wednesday will be a few degrees warmer as southwesterly flow at the 850mb level continues to draw in warmer air, resulting in warmer surface temperatures.
336 PM EDT Tue Apr 16 2024 High pressure over the region will shift east tonight.
High temperatures will climb into the 60s and 70s across the majority of the area, with temperatures in the 80s within portions of the Verde Valley and the lower deserts of Yavapai County. Skies will be mostly sunny each day, though a weak trough may bring in some clouds for the latter part of the week (sorry, not enough moisture for rain!).
Showers and thunderstorms will increase across portions of the Mid-South tonight as a cold front slowly moves into the area.
An upper trough drops into the Northern Rockies tonight along with a backdoor cold front coming across the Divide. One area that could be an exception is the higher valleys of Southwest Montana, where some road impacts may occur Wednesday morning.
(Rest of today through Wednesday) Tranquil conditions continue over the area today, as mid-lvl ridging oriented over the central GOM builds towards the area and high pressure over the western Atlantic continues to support moderate easterly low-lvl flow. The aforementioned synoptic pattern remains in place on Wednesday with ridging remaining in control and continued dry conditions. Slightly higher mid-lvl heights and slightly weaker easterly flow will result in temperatures ticking up a degree or two relative to today, generally ranging from the low to mid 80s on the east coast, to the mid to upper 80s over Interior and SW Florida.
As this occurs, a warm front forms tonight into tomorrow morning across western north Texas and southeastern Oklahoma. Depending on how far north the warm front goes, a pseudo-dryline could also form across parts of southwest Oklahoma into western north Texas. Daytime temperatures will be warmer tomorrow with highs in the upper 80s and near 90 degrees over western north Texas.
325 PM EDT Tue Apr 16 2024 High pressure will persist through the end of the work week. A cold front is forecasted to impact our area this weekend. Tonight: The forecast area will remain under the influence of dry high pressure centered over the western Atlantic. Overnight lows will be warmer than the previous night, with upper 50s and low 60s expected. Larger scale pattern flattens/becomes a bit more progressive across the CONUS for the latter half of the week as a deeper closed low settles into south-central Canada and the Northern Plains region.
(This evening through Wednesday night) Upper level ridging has moved to our east, leaving influence from an upper low moving into the upper midwest. An frontal system attendant with the low is approaching the lower Mississippi Valley, but will lift north of us due to a Gulf high at the surface (connected to the Bermuda high) that extends upward to H5. With the pressure gradients between the high in the gulf and lower to the north we see southeasterly to southerly winds up to 10kt.
159 PM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024 (Today through Wednesday) Key Messages: â¶ Heat indices in excess of 100 degrees Tuesday and Wednesday â¶ Patchy fog possible in the Victoria Crossroads and portions of the Coastal Plains Conditions are expected to be pretty warm today and tomorrow as we are being influenced by an area of high pressure in the Gulf of Mexico. Temperatures will climb to the lower to upper 90s in portion of the Coastal Plains and Brush Country. This front will likely remain to the north and stall over Central Texas due to the influence of the high over the Gulf.
A Canadian cold front will drop south overnight and expect snow to return to the eastern highlands with snow levels dropping from 7 thousand feet to under 5 thousand feet overnight.