Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
718 PM CDT Thu Aug 1 2024 (This evening through Friday Night) Tranquil but hot conditions expected to prevail across Southeast Texas through the end of the work week as high pressure dominates the local weather pattern. The highs will be in the mid to upper 90s for areas near and north of I-10 and in the low to mid 90s closer to the coasts.
647 PM CDT Thu Aug 1 2024 - An upper low will bring a low chance (less than 20% for most locations) for very isolated showers and thunderstorms through Friday evening. The upper low over Minnesota will slowly move southeast toward the western Great Lakes through Friday. Friday Evening/overnight: Upper low will translate southeastward across northwestern Illinois into the Ohio Valley. This weekend: Ridging builds over the four corners region on Friday bringing a primarily northwest flow regime to the area. The main sensible weather focus looks to be seasonably hot and humid conditions both days, with highs in the 80s and heat indices approaching the lower 90s.
259 PM PDT Thu Aug 1 2024 High pressure expands over the western US today, bringing much warmer temperatures, with inland highs of 95 to 100 degrees.
628 PM CDT Thu Aug 1 2024 - Scattered showers and storms are possible with a slow moving upper low through this evening mainly north of I-72 and again on Friday mainly east of I-55.
Early onset of the sea breeze on Fri as ridge axis lifts northward. (Modified Previous Discussion) The Atlc ridge axis across the central peninsula will slowly lift northward this weekend to accommodate the approach of a tropical wave from the south.
638 PM CDT Thu Aug 1 2024 (Tonight) Temperatures have remained in the lower to mid 90s so far this afternoon. A couple of pre-frontal trough axes associated with upper level disturbances can be seen moving along it.
An upper level ridge continues to strengthen over the region.
How far south they push is still in question, but they will be associated with a weak boundary that is part of an upper level low over the Great Lakes. Influences from this upper low and boundary will be around Friday and Saturday in the form of scattered showers and storms. The other fantastic change that will come with this upper low is that the upper ridge responsible for the heat of the last few days will retrograde back over the western part of the country allowing for temperatures to fall back closer to seasonal averages Friday and Saturday.
210 AM MDT Fri Aug 2 2024 A potent upper ridge is settled over Montana, bringing with it extremely hot temperatures going into the weekend.
Later this afternoon and evening, thunderstorms are expected to form along the higher terrain to our west within upslope flow. PoPs at this time will still remain on the low side (20-30%).
HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM EDT THIS Another Heat Advisory in effect this afternoon for Heat Indices of around 110, with temps in the lower to mid 90s.
(Today through Saturday) 500 mb high pressure centered over the Four Corners area of the United States will be the dominant weather feature over the BRO CWFA through the period. However, some brief and very isolated convection cannot be ruled out over the lower Texas coastal waters, especially today, as PWAT values briefly prevail at around 2 inches offshore. Meanwhile, temperature-wise, the presence of the mid-level ridge and limited cloud cover will combine to produce slightly above normal values for this time of year.
Early morning satellite imagery/RAP analysis showed our CWA on the eastern periphery of a 595dam ridge and a rather compact nearly stacked low spinning over northern Illinois. This low had an associated cold front stretching back across the mid Mississippi valley and across central Oklahoma where an mcs has developed along the cold front. Although the JAN 00Z Fri sounding showed PWATs down below an inch and a half, dew points were running in the low to mid 70s. By this evening while the while the oppressive heats begins to let up, a weak cold front will be dopping into northern Mississippi. Although the damaging wind threat will end before midnight, low rain chances will continue across the southern half of the CWA after midnight as the cold front continues drifting south through the night.
1210 AM CDT Fri Aug 2 2024 (This afternoon through Friday night) Not much change in the short term, as the upper ridge continues to dominate. WV imagery this afternoon shows the upper ridge extending from the Four Corners area southeast through the ArklaTex, and centered over northeast New Mexico and the panhandles. Friday, the ridge shifts more towards the Four Corners, but the southeast tail of the ridge could shift warmer temperatures east, despite decreasing thicknesses. Unfortunately, w/the forecast trajectory of the ridge, CAMs are pretty much bone dry for these parts Friday afternoon/evening. Friday night, the LLJ is forecast to be a little more extensive than tonight, but about the same strength, yielding overnight lows a degree or so warmer at best.
1246 AM CDT Fri Aug 2 2024 (Tonight through Friday night) The subtropical ridge remains in place over the southern part of the country this afternoon and will dominate through the short term period. In the low levels the flow is generally from the southeast. Temperatures range from the upper 80s to middle 90s and dewpoints from the middle 60s to the lower 70s. The upper ridge will suppress any convection tonight. Continued southeasterly low level flow will bring warmer temperatures for Saturday morning with lows a little warmer than Friday.
(Today through Saturday) A cold front will approach the area from the northwest. As mentioned yesterday, a pre-frontal trough, or an area of extra lift, will move into the area ahead of the front in the afternoon, so scattered showers and storms remain possible across the northern half of the area through the afternoon and into the evening hours. A few of the storms will be strong to even marginally severe, as we have the extra lift from the trough and front.
Residual surface ridging across portions of NE continues to yield northerly/northeasterly low-level flow across much of eastern KS.
High pressure overhead will support above normal temperatures for the next two days, with many locations expected to observe temperatures running 5 to 10 degrees above climatological norms.
but this may change by later this afternoon into the early evening hrs as a weak upper wave drops SE out of MO into NRN AR ahead of an approaching weak cold front. Compressional heating ahead of the cold front may allow temps to remain hot again for Fri.
(Modified Previous Discussion) The Atlc ridge axis across the central peninsula will slowly lift northward this weekend to accommodate the approach of a tropical wave from the south.
1140 PM MDT Thu Aug 1 2024 UPDATED AVIATION SECTION High pressure builds in for hot and dry conditions through Saturday.
(Today and tonight) High pressure aloft will persist across the area today, with hot and dry weather continuing.
321 AM EDT Fri Aug 2 2024 Showers and thunderstorms will continue at times through Saturday as a slow moving trough of low pressure crosses the region.
It remains quite muggy however, with 07z temperatures still in the upper 70s to lower 80s and dewpoints currently in the low to mid 70s. In addition to the convective threat, mid 70s dewpoints will combine with highs in the low to mid 90s to create peak heat index values in excess across much of northern Alabama along and west of I-65.
1252 AM CDT Fri Aug 2 2024 - An upper low will bring a low chance (less than 20% for most locations) for very isolated showers and thunderstorms through Friday evening. The upper low over Minnesota will slowly move southeast toward the western Great Lakes through Friday. Friday Evening/overnight: Upper low will translate southeastward across northwestern Illinois into the Ohio Valley. This weekend: Ridging builds over the four corners region on Friday bringing a primarily northwest flow regime to the area. The main sensible weather focus looks to be seasonably hot and humid conditions both days, with highs in the 80s and heat indices approaching the lower 90s.
1143 PM CDT Thu Aug 1 2024 (Tonight through Saturday night) Mid-afternoon sfc analysis shows high pressure centered nearly overhead maintaining a very light/variable low-level flow over the region. Water vapor imagery shows mid/upper-level ridging stretching from the Four Corners sewd through the ArkLaMiss. Tomorrow looks largely like a repeat of today with the mid/upper- level ridging remaining in control. The cutoff low mentioned earlier is progged to open up while pushing sewd which could begin breaking down the ern edge of the ridge over the Atchafalaya Basin. On Saturday, with troffing now digging over the ern CONUS, the ridge is progged to be shunted back wwd from the Rockies through wrn TX. Saturday temps look similar to Friday with interior sern TX looking a degree or two warmer.
Look for an slow upper level trough passage as today progresses with upper level troughing influences hanging around eastern portions of mid state region through Saturday afternoon. Lows tonight will reflect passage of this surface summertime cold front with lows around seasonal normal values.
329 AM CDT Fri Aug 2 2024 - It will be cooler and less humid today with a chance (20-40%) of showers and thunderstorms along and east of the Mississippi River.
259 AM MDT Fri Aug 2 2024 High pressure keeps hot temperatures and dry conditions through Saturday.
1134 PM CDT Thu Aug 1 2024 - Calm conditions with highs in the low 90s are expected into the start of the weekend.
Shout out to Willis Carrier for inventing AC! A ridge of high pressure aloft will once again bring hot temperatures to the area today. This ridge will also continue to keep diurnal thunderstorm activity to a minimum today. However, an upper trough will dig from the N late in the day, breaking the ridge down, and bringing a bit of an uptick in convection by this evening. The aforementioned digging trough will lead to a bit of a "cool- down" by Saturday, with daytime highs about 3 to 5 degrees lower than today's. Better chances of showers and thunderstorms are expected on Saturday, particularly SE of an Athens to Columbus line (SE of a weak cold front).
1142 PM CDT Thu Aug 1 2024 (This evening through Friday Night) Tranquil but hot conditions expected to prevail across Southeast Texas through the end of the work week as high pressure dominates the local weather pattern. The highs will be in the mid to upper 90s for areas near and north of I-10 and in the low to mid 90s closer to the coasts.
Afternoon highs today will likely be influenced by the approaching cold front, with most locations seeing a slight influence from compressional heating. every day this upcoming week, as upper-level ridging builds in.
A cold front will push through the area early Saturday morning, making its way into Central Texas by the afternoon. Slightly cooler temperatures are expected tomorrow afternoon with light northeasterly winds in place.
548 AM CDT Fri Aug 2 2024 (Today and tonight) High pressure aloft will persist across the area today, with hot and dry weather continuing.
High pressure persists over the western US through the weekend maintaining warm and dry weather.
Given the moist uncapped environment with steepening lapse rates near the track of the low, convective coverage should increase as soon as surface diabatic heating starts.
Thunderstorm activity will trend more sparse Saturday onward as high pressure builds and temperatures climb.
Ridging over both the midwest CONUS and the western North Atlantic will work together to lift the tropical wave across Cuba today.
832 AM MDT Fri Aug 2 2024 Morning satellite imagery shows widespread clear skies under strong ridge aloft, but with increasing lofted smoke advecting from west to east thru south central MT. JKL A potent upper ridge is settled over Montana, bringing with it extremely hot temperatures going into the weekend.
345 AM PDT Fri Aug 2 2024 There is a chance of thunderstorms for this afternoon, mainly for the mountains into the high desert with strong gusty winds, lightning, and brief heavy rainfall possible.
548 AM CDT Fri Aug 2 2024 (Today through Saturday) 500 mb high pressure centered over the Four Corners area of the United States will be the dominant weather feature over the BRO CWFA through the period. However, some brief and very isolated convection cannot be ruled out over the lower Texas coastal waters, especially today, as PWAT values briefly prevail at around 2 inches offshore. Meanwhile, temperature-wise, the presence of the mid-level ridge and limited cloud cover will combine to produce slightly above normal values for this time of year.
418 AM CDT Fri Aug 2 2024 - Hot and dry west and central today with high temperatures there from the lower 90s north-central to 101 in the southwest.
That will change heading into the afternoon as a cold front to our northwest pushes southward. There will be several hours between this first round and the afternoon round of convection for the atmosphere to warm on top of these dew points in the low 70s.
Some modest southeasterly flow in the low levels should help keep showers and storms moving, though multiple rounds and the occasional slow-moving storms could lead to some minor localized flooding in urban areas and other low-lying areas with poor drainage. Heat will continue to be a concern today, with afternoon highs forecast to climb into the low to mid 90s.
606 AM CDT Fri Aug 2 2024 (Today through Saturday) A cold front will approach the area from the northwest. As mentioned yesterday, a pre-frontal trough, or an area of extra lift, will move into the area ahead of the front in the afternoon, so scattered showers and storms remain possible across the northern half of the area through the afternoon and into the evening hours. A few of the storms will be strong to even marginally severe, as we have the extra lift from the trough and front.
540 AM EDT Fri Aug 2 2024 Showers and thunderstorms will continue at times through Saturday as a slow moving trough of low pressure crosses the region.
The large area of high pressure is expected to center itself over the Four Corner, creating a more favorable monsoon pattern. High pressure will remain over much of the Southwest through the middle of next, continuing daily chances for showers and thunderstorms. This ridge looks to wobble around day to day, so coverage will likely shift, but we'll have more details as we get closer.
High pressure aloft through the weekend with continued above normal temperatures and dry weather. Increased onshore flow along with lower heights aloft will bring cooler temperatures but still warmer than average.
735 AM EDT Fri Aug 2 2024 Showers and thunderstorms will continue at times through Saturday as a slow moving trough of low pressure crosses the region.
Another Heat Advisory in effect this afternoon for Heat Indices of around 110, with temps in the lower to mid 90s.
Continued warmer than normal across the interior through the forecast period.
High level monsoonal moisture advecting around periphery of Desert SW upper high spreading into the CWA at this time. Models continue to show 500mb mesolow/trough lifting through interior NorCal tonight into Saturday. Abundant cloud cover over interior NorCal tonight will limit longwave radiation and keep overnight lows a little warmer.
Humidity will be lower today, keeping heat indices close to the high temps.
842 AM CDT Fri Aug 2 2024 - Hot and dry west and central today with high temperatures there from the lower 90s north-central to 101 in the southwest.
608 AM CDT Fri Aug 2 2024 - It will be cooler and less humid today with a chance (20-40%) of showers and thunderstorms along and east of the Mississippi River.
455 AM MDT Fri Aug 2 2024 UPDATED AVIATION SECTION High pressure keeps hot temperatures and dry conditions through Saturday.
652 AM CDT Fri Aug 2 2024 - Hot and dry west and central today with high temperatures there from the lower 90s north-central to 101 in the southwest.
This will limit thunderstorm activity to mainly the mountains this afternoon with only isolated coverage in the lowlands, mainly west of the Rio Grande.
(Rest of today through Saturday) An upper-level low can be seen on satellite imagery to our north over Indiana and Ohio, and surface observations show a cold front just beginning to enter western TN. Coverage will gradually come to an end after sunset, and the upper-level low will slowly move to the east as the cold front clears the area. Temperatures will be slightly cooler Saturday as highs range from the mid 80s to low 90s. With drier air in place, most will be storm-free, too, but isolated to scattered storms will continue across the Plateau with troughing still in place in this area. (Saturday Night through next Friday) Weather conditions look to be much quieter as we head into the new week as an area of high pressure builds over the Rockies and dry northwest flow prevails over Middle TN.
The stage is being set for an active weekend in the Florida Keys with Potential Tropical Cyclone 4's (PTC 4) approach. Deep layer ridging across the western North Atlantic will keep PTC 4 hovering over Cuba.
Low temperatures will be several degrees cooler than previous nights. High temps will probably remain just shy of century mark (mid-upper 90s) for most locations with heat indices only a couple degrees warmer due to reduced dew points.
(This evening through Saturday) Water vapor imagery shows an upper level ridge centered over NM this afternoon and a trough over Indiana moving slowly southeast. In the short term, troughing will dominate east of the Mississippi River, and ridging will continue over the West, centering over the Four Corners region. Though the ridge stays in place, it will weaken slightly on Saturday, resulting in decreasing thicknesses across the forecast area. Tomorrow, the decreasing thicknesses should result in cooler high temps, though they will still be above average.
maybe the highest PW of the season (1. It was a rather active evening and night which has stabilized the lower levels this morning. The large area of high pressure is expected to center itself over the Four Corner, creating a more favorable monsoon pattern. High pressure will remain over much of the Southwest through the middle of next, continuing daily chances for showers and thunderstorms. This ridge looks to wobble around day to day, so coverage will likely shift, but we'll have more details as we get closer.
949 AM PDT Fri Aug 2 2024 There is a chance of thunderstorms for this afternoon, mainly for the mountains and the high desert with strong gusty winds, lightning, and brief heavy rainfall possible.
154 PM PDT Fri Aug 2 2024 Isolated to scattered thunderstorms this afternoon, mainly for the mountains and the high desert with strong gusty winds, lightning, and brief heavy rainfall possible.
Continued very quiet tonight as the upper ridge begins to shift off and we get high pressure moving east. Large hail will be the primary threat as storms develop over our area and then move southeast with the cold front.
Afternoon temperatures will trend warmer this weekend with major Heat Risk returning to the San Joaquin Valley.
Saharan dust remains visible on satellite imagery this morning, lingering underneath mid-to- high level cloud decks across the area into the lower Mississippi Valley. Afternoon highs today will likely be influenced by the approaching cold front, with most locations seeing a slight influence from compressional heating. every day this upcoming week, as upper-level ridging builds in.
1224 PM CDT Fri Aug 2 2024 (Today and tonight) High pressure aloft will persist across the area today, with hot and dry weather continuing.
In addition to the low end rain chance, we may need a Heat Advisory for I-35 and points east on Saturday as dewpoints appear to be trending back upward after being a bit below guidance the last few days.
1220 PM CDT Fri Aug 2 2024 (Today through Saturday) A cold front will approach the area from the northwest. As mentioned yesterday, a pre-frontal trough, or an area of extra lift, will move into the area ahead of the front in the afternoon, so scattered showers and storms remain possible across the northern half of the area through the afternoon and into the evening hours. A few of the storms will be strong to even marginally severe, as we have the extra lift from the trough and front.
High pressure will dominate the local weather pattern for the rest of today with highs likely to peak in the mid to upper 90s this afternoon along with heat indices up to 110 deg F in some spots. The lows tonight will stay in the upper 70s for much of the inland areas, so a warm start to the day. Aside from the heat, there is a chance for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms on Saturday afternoon and Saturday night as a weak cold front stalls near or over the Brazos Valley/Piney Woods region.
By Saturday morning, cooler air will move in at 500 mb, increasing the lapse rates, but this will be after the main moisture band has moved through. The slight thunderstorm threat on Saturday will mostly be centered in the South Bay and Central Coast under the cooler 500 mb air.
Flooded streets were reported in Hicksville, OH, as radar returns there were amid the low's pivot point. As the weekend concludes, active northwest flow atop a western US Ridge will provide intermittent rain chances during the week.
The high pressure ridge axis is directly over southeast Idaho today. The ridge axis moves slightly east by Saturday and weak southwest flow aloft sets up over the area allowing monsoon moisture to start to move into the area by late Saturday.
Large upper ridge centered over the central Rockies will move very little but flatten with westerlies dipping into the central Plains and western TN valley states. With slightly cooler sfc temps and moisture should avoid reaching heat advisory criteria north of I-20 Saturday.
/16 ********************* Previous ********************************* The upper ridge over the region will weaken slightly today as an upper trough begins to dig across the eastern states.
High pressure keeps hot temperatures and dry conditions through Saturday.
The highs tomorrow will be in the upper 90s and approaching 100 degrees in some areas.
243 PM MDT Fri Aug 2 2024 - Showers and storms expected this afternoon and evening, mainly over and near the higher terrain. For the higher terrain, slow movement of storms could result in locally heavy rainfall and flash flooding concerns, especially over burn scars and other vulnerable areas. While there is a modest cap out east, we will have some forcing from an embedded wave within the upper ridge. Storms are largely expected to move off of the higher terrain, or form near the Palmer Divide and Raton Mesa, before moving east-southeast. Saturday will be a bit drier, especially over the plains, as the upper high shifts north and east a bit over Colorado. We will have to make it through a few more days of hot conditions before cooler and wetter weather moves into the region.
A cold front over western Tennessee continues to track southward this afternoon with multiple showers starting to form along and ahead of the boundary. Overnight lows will only drop into the low 70s. Should sheltered valleys get enough radiational cooling overnight and reach the low 60s, there will be a low threat for patchy fog.
HREF continues to show somewhat organized convection likely firing up in the highest terrain in our far southeast corner in Toulemne county this afternoon and evening. the upper low that is moving north with this activity looks to be parked in North Central CA mid day tomorrow.
(This evening through Saturday) Weak cold front sagging into West Central Texas on Saturday, with most of the CAMs showing at least isolated convection across the area by mid/late afternoon. Temperatures behind the boundary will be a couple degrees cooler, staying more in the 100 to 104 range rather than the 103-107 of the last few days.
This comes even after the gradual approach and passage of a frontal boundary as broad ridging continues roughly unabated, drying the atmosphere out just enough to give areas north of the I-20 corridor a reprieve from Heat Advisory conditions.