Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
855 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024 It's still very warm out there right now with the highest temp sitting at 88 over BNA. Latest models show we'll be unstable enough for some thunderstorms to develop, but lapse rates continue to be on the low side, thus limiting any widespread severe activity tomorrow. (Rest of today through Sunday Night) Hot and humid is the main weather story today and tomorrow thanks to an upper level ridge of high pressure overhead. On Sunday into Sunday night, a weak cold front will move across the area bringing a better albeit still low chance for showers and storms across the midstate.
242 PM PDT Sat Jun 22 2024 A dry cold front on Sunday will create elevated to critical fire weather concerns over portions of central and eastern Washington with widespread breezy to windy conditions.
602 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024 (This evening through Sunday) A weak cold front will move into far northwest Oklahoma late this afternoon.
624 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024 (Rest of today through Sunday Night) Hot and humid is the main weather story today and tomorrow thanks to an upper level ridge of high pressure overhead. On Sunday into Sunday night, a weak cold front will move across the area bringing a better albeit still low chance for showers and storms across the midstate.
739 PM MDT Sat Jun 22 2024 Drier and warmer conditions will continue to move into the area overnight tonight.
630 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024 (Thru Tonight) Another hot and humid day is ongoing beneath ridging aloft. The breezy southwest winds ahead of a weak cold front across KS may be helping with the heat. Lacy (Sunday through Saturday) A sw-ne oriented low level thermal ridge is extending east into the lower Plains ahead of the weak front today and will drop south over the forecast area on Sunday.
Boise reached a high of 102 which was 2 degrees cooler than the record high for the date, set in 1988. Surface winds: variable 10 kt or less becoming W-SW 10-20 kt with gusts to 30 kt after Sun/18Z, strongest in the higher terrain.
654 PM EDT Sat Jun 22 2024 High pressure begins to lose its grip on the region tonight.
642 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024 Hot conditions will persist into the beginning of the week as an upper level ridge remains parked over Texas.
617 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024 (This evening through Sunday Night) An upper level ridge will build into the South Central CONUS as we close out the weekend, bringing about a generally benign pattern to the region characterized by hot and humid weather with daily chances of diurnally driven sowers and thunderstorms.
/EC/ Quiet conditions will continue heading into tonight as global guidance continues to highlight strong mid/upper ridging across our forecast area. Although the area will remain on the eastern periphery of strong mid/upper ridging, low level flow will become more southerly, with increasing low level moisture beginning Sunday afternoon.
Drier and warmer conditions will continue to move into the area overnight tonight.
(Sunday through Saturday) A sw-ne oriented low level thermal ridge is extending east into the lower Plains ahead of the weak front today and will drop south over the forecast area on Sunday.
418 PM MDT Sat Jun 22 2024 -Much warmer to start the week with warm conds continuing through most of the work week. Upper level ridge will breakdown in the eastern CONUS, and build over the western/central CONUS this week. Large scale ridging will ensue Sun with hot temps in NE WY where westerly flow will ensue. Otherwise, much warmer across western SD as well, but easterly flow should limit temps to the upper 80s lower 90s.
(Rest of tonight) High pressure has shifted a bit further southeast this evening, but still remains centered just of the Atlantic coast and extends WSW into Alabama and eastern Texas. After reaching highs in the 91 to 97 degrees today with calm or very light winds and clear skies, temperatures have already fallen in to the lower to mid 70s in some areas. However, expect most locations to only drop into the lower 70s.
604 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024 (Tonight) A broad sub-tropical ridge is in place across the TN Valley today aiding in the suppression of convection. Otherwise, hot temperatures in the low/mid 90s prevail across the area.
631 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024 Quiet conditions will continue heading into tonight as global guidance continues to highlight strong mid/upper ridging across our forecast area. Although the area will remain on the eastern periphery of strong mid/upper ridging, low level flow will become more southerly, with increasing low level moisture beginning Sunday afternoon.
(Today through Monday Night) The upper level ridge has become centered over Texas. An upper trough moving into the northeast U. and weakening of the northeast side of the high will allow a cold front to move into north Arkansas.
- Cooler for the end of the week with an uptick in thunderstorm activity. Current surface map places high pressure across the Dakotas. Flat upper level ridge is located across the Rockies. As ridge shifts eastward today, low level thermal ridge surges north and east. Surface trof will be located along the South Dakota/Wyoming border this afternoon, dividing the warm/dry and well mixed boundary layer to the west and slightly cooler/more humid southeasterly flow on the South Dakota plains. Trough stalls out along southern forecast area. Upper trough moves across the northern Rockies into the plains late in the week with cooler temperatures and increasing chances of thunderstorms.
1006 PM PDT Sat Jun 22 2024 A dry cold front on Sunday will create elevated to critical fire weather concerns over portions of central and eastern Washington with widespread breezy to windy conditions.
(Today through Monday afternoon) The trend of warmer temperatures will continue today into Monday. After a few "cooler" days we should finally reach normal this afternoon which is mid 90s for most. Ridging directly overhead is producing enough subsidence to keep any rain at bay.
High pressure aloft will overall remain in control of the weather across the region through much of the period. While this high aloft drifts further west of the region, northwest flow aloft will setup across the forecast area. With the mid/upper level high center drifting further west overnight, its weakening presence over the region will allow a weak frontal boundary to sink south into the forecast area around day break Monday. As eluded to above, moisture will be on the increase across the area today, especially across western portions of the CWA where dew points will reside in the low and middle 70s as highs climb into the upper 90s.
(Today) Mostly westward expansion of the upper ridge will continue today, and will result in slightly warmer temps and a small increase in relative humidity.
(Sunday through Monday night) Issued at 124 PM Sat Jun 22 2024 An upper trough remains stationary just offshore of the FL/GA coastline while Bermuda ridge sets up to our east. with northwest flow aloft over the forecast area with upstream ridging building in. Unseasonably hot temperatures are expected through the short term period with mid/upper level ridging extending over our area from the west with ridge retrograding slightly on Monday.
908 PM PDT Sat Jun 22 2024 A dry cold front on Sunday will create elevated to critical fire weather concerns over portions of central and eastern Washington with widespread breezy to windy conditions.
134 AM MDT Sun Jun 23 2024 Today will likely be the hottest day of the year so far, with many locations forecast to reach the upper 90s to near 100 degrees as ridging builds overhead and 700 mb temperatures warm towards 15-18 degrees C. Behind the cold front, Monday will be a good 10 degrees or so cooler than Sunday, with highs in the upper 80s to around 90 degrees.
On Sunday, expect another active Monsoon day across northern Arizona as flow around an elongated area of high pressure centered over New Mexico continues to pump moisture into the region. The bulk of the high resolution model guidance suggests the greatest storm activity will occur across the Coconino and Yavapai Counties.
A few degrees warmer into Monday, ranging the low 90s area wide.
A more prominent low pressure system moves in later in the week and weekend. Otherwise, high pressure and large scale subsidence is expected for the overnight hours and into Sunday, resulting in dry conditions. Another low pressure system will develop out of the Rockies on Monday.
1152 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024 (This evening through Sunday Night) An upper level ridge will build into the South Central CONUS as we close out the weekend, bringing about a generally benign pattern to the region characterized by hot and humid weather with daily chances of diurnally driven sowers and thunderstorms.
Complex area of low pressure continues to make its way eastward thru Lower Michigan early this morning. A stronger upper level trough axis will swing thru Northern Michigan this afternoon and evening. Pattern Synopsis and Forecast: Northwest will be overhead as a closed low exits the state and continues east Monday. A northern Rockies lee side trough will move straight east as zonal flow alfot over the northern CONUS carries it towards the northern Plains.
(Today through Monday) The H5 ridge over our region will continue to spread west with time as a weak trough begins to move south and east over the Ohio River Valley Today and into Monday.
(Today through Monday) The upper level ridge centered over and north of the area will produce a mainly dry forecast through the short term, with the exception of far southern areas of the forecast area. A broad area of low pressure is located over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico and is expected to move northwest into Mexico later tonight. Beneath the ridge, the outer fringes of the tropical moisture associated with this system has made it into South Texas, and will move as far north as southern areas of our forecast area. Greater coverage of showers is expected farther south of the forecast area, where deeper tropical moisture resides and influences from the ridge are less.
1041 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024 (This evening through Sunday) A weak cold front will move into far northwest Oklahoma late this afternoon.
(Today and tonight) An upper level ridge centered over Texas is our dominant weather feature. With some expansion of the 850mb thermal ridge into our area from the west, expect highs this afternoon to be a little hotter than yesterday. Temperatures will be warm with overnight lows in the lower to mid 70s in our southern and central counties, and mostly in the mid 70s across the Big Country.
The good news is dew points are only in the lower 70s, so no oppressive heat today. High pressure will start shifting further to our east Sunday into Monday, and with that, our surface winds will have more of an onshore component, which will aid in raising our dew points.
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: A ridge across the region will bring very high temperatures in the mid 90s today. As the day continues the ridge will begin to break down and move east.
Thorough mixing will drop dew points into the lower 60s in our southeast counties, while remaining in the upper 60s to around 70 in our northwest counties as westerly flow advects low level moisture east ward in advance of a cool front.
1139 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024 (This evening through Sunday) High pressure will continue to slowly build across the region.
1125 PM MDT Sat Jun 22 2024 UPDATED AVIATION SECTION Drier and warmer conditions will continue to move into the area overnight tonight.
Seasonable heat to start the week, climbing several degrees by mid week as high pressure builds overhead. As expected, a strong gulf surge has reinforced the initial moisture punch with surface dewpoints up 10 to 15 degrees into the lower deserts and satellite precipitable water estimates as high as 2 inches in southwest AZ. We've also been seeing a bit less shear and slow warming in mid levels as high pressure builds in from the west over the next 72 hours. The ridge will strengthen overhead with a new high center consolidating nearly overhead the first half of the week. The resulting warmer mid levels will combine with a gradual drying trend to slow the thunderstorm trend a bit.
1051 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024 (Rest of tonight) High pressure has shifted a bit further southeast this evening, but still remains centered just of the Atlantic coast and extends WSW into Alabama and eastern Texas. After reaching highs in the 91 to 97 degrees today with calm or very light winds and clear skies, temperatures have already fallen in to the lower to mid 70s in some areas. However, expect most locations to only drop into the lower 70s.
(Today and tonight) Similar weather expected today as yesterday with the upper level high positioning itself over the region this afternoon. This will lead to yet another day of dry and warmer conditions across the FA.
(Today through Monday) Central Alabama will be switching from a northeast to a weak northwest flow thanks to a trough amplifying over the Northeast CONUS. A weak cold front will slide from Kentucky and Tennessee this afternoon and into our area overnight into Monday morning.
1232 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024 It's still very warm out there right now with the highest temp sitting at 88 over BNA. Latest models show we'll be unstable enough for some thunderstorms to develop, but lapse rates continue to be on the low side, thus limiting any widespread severe activity tomorrow. (Rest of today through Sunday Night) Hot and humid is the main weather story today and tomorrow thanks to an upper level ridge of high pressure overhead. On Sunday into Sunday night, a weak cold front will move across the area bringing a better albeit still low chance for showers and storms across the midstate.
1202 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024 - Dry and warmer Sunday.
Begin this Sunday under the influence of upper level ridging, with an upper level trof approaching from the west. A closed area of upper level higher heights is located over Texas, and the associated ridge presses northward into our region. This ridge adds mass to the approaching trof, causing said trof to pass along Montana's northern border.
Current temperatures are in the low to mid 80s and dew points in the mid to upper 70s. (12Z TAFs) Atlc ridge axis is draped across central FL which will produce a light southerly flow less than 10 knots, turning SE around 10 knots at coastal terminals behind the sea breeze this aftn. High pressure over the western Atlantic will promote south to southeast winds across the local waters.
Skies mainly sunny today with high pressure moving in. Upper low is moving from Manitoba into southern parts of NW Ontraio today. Lingering showers are possible around Lake of the Woods mainly this morning with afternoon thunderstorms associated with this upper low likely to be more Intl Falls and east. High pressure will build in today giving us a good deal of sunshine, though may have to deal with some early morning low clouds and patchy fog. from the Pacific and this upper low will track east thru central Canadian praries from Edmonton region this afternoon to central Manitoba 18z Monday. Dew pts will reach the low 70s in many areas though esp withing the RRV. Latest HRRR indicates though a bit slower movement of this trough/wind shift east than some global models suggest.
623 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024 (Today and tonight) An upper level ridge centered over Texas is our dominant weather feature. With some expansion of the 850mb thermal ridge into our area from the west, expect highs this afternoon to be a little hotter than yesterday. Temperatures will be warm with overnight lows in the lower to mid 70s in our southern and central counties, and mostly in the mid 70s across the Big Country.
555 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024 (Today through Monday afternoon) The trend of warmer temperatures will continue today into Monday. After a few "cooler" days we should finally reach normal this afternoon which is mid 90s for most. Ridging directly overhead is producing enough subsidence to keep any rain at bay.
608 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024 (Today through Monday) The H5 ridge over our region will continue to spread west with time as a weak trough begins to move south and east over the Ohio River Valley Today and into Monday.
Upper low is moving from Manitoba into southern parts of NW Ontraio today. Lingering showers are possible around Lake of the Woods mainly this morning with afternoon thunderstorms associated with this upper low likely to be more Intl Falls and east. High pressure will build in today giving us a good deal of sunshine, though may have to deal with some early morning low clouds and patchy fog. from the Pacific and this upper low will track east thru central Canadian praries from Edmonton region this afternoon to central Manitoba 18z Monday. Dew pts will reach the low 70s in many areas though esp withing the RRV. Latest HRRR indicates though a bit slower movement of this trough/wind shift east than some global models suggest.
Somewhat cooler temperatures in the interior today, continuing into the beginning of the work week with a slight cooldown midweek. Low temperatures tonight range from the low to mid 50s in the lower elevations to the 60s to low 70s in the higher elevations. With the upper level ridge moving off to the east, highs will be somewhat cooler today, with highs in the upper 80s to mid 90s in the interior valleys, perhaps close to 100 in the warmest spots, with highs in the 70s expected across the Bayshore and the mid 50s to mid 60s across the Pacific coast. A shot of mid-level moisture will come into the region from the south, ahead of a weak upper level trough.
605 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024 An approaching weak cold front combined with a warm, moist, and unstable airmass may result in the potential for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms across portions of the Mid- South, especially during peak daytime heating.
615 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024 (Today and tonight) Similar weather expected today as yesterday with the upper level high positioning itself over the region this afternoon. This will lead to yet another day of dry and warmer conditions across the FA.
638 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024 (Today through Monday Night) The upper level ridge has become centered over Texas. An upper trough moving into the northeast U. and weakening of the northeast side of the high will allow a cold front to move into north Arkansas.
612 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024 (Today through Monday) The upper level ridge centered over and north of the area will produce a mainly dry forecast through the short term, with the exception of far southern areas of the forecast area. A broad area of low pressure is located over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico and is expected to move northwest into Mexico later tonight. Beneath the ridge, the outer fringes of the tropical moisture associated with this system has made it into South Texas, and will move as far north as southern areas of our forecast area. Greater coverage of showers is expected farther south of the forecast area, where deeper tropical moisture resides and influences from the ridge are less.
Mid-level water vapor verifies the trough that is being observed on RAOBs 12z sounding analysis is slightly sagging towards our CWA and one of our big components in weather-making. From synopsis, high pressure over the western Atlantic and low pressure over the Bay of Campeche will maintain gentle to moderate east to southeast breezes across the Keys coastal waters, becoming light to gentle tonight through Monday evening. The western Atlantic ridge will settle southward into the Florida Straits during the middle and later part of the week, with light southwest to west breezes prevailing over the Keys waters.
619 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024 (Today) Mostly westward expansion of the upper ridge will continue today, and will result in slightly warmer temps and a small increase in relative humidity.
An approaching weak cold front combined with a warm, moist, and unstable airmass may result in the potential for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms across portions of the Mid- South, especially during peak daytime heating.
737 AM EDT Sun Jun 23 2024 (12Z TAFs) Atlc ridge axis is draped across central FL which will produce a light southerly flow less than 10 knots, turning SE around 10 knots at coastal terminals behind the sea breeze this aftn. A few degrees warmer into Monday, ranging the low 90s area wide.
1013 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024 A weak cold front currently stretches from the Great Lakes southwestward to Southeast Missouri/North Central Arkansas. KRM An approaching weak cold front combined with a warm, moist, and unstable airmass may result in the potential for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms across portions of the Mid- South, especially during peak daytime heating.
Current temperatures are in the low to mid 80s and dew points in the mid to upper 70s. High pressure over the western Atlantic will promote south to southeast winds across the local waters.
Upper level ridging will be dominant over the region tonight into Monday morning, before flattening out to become more zonal Monday afternoon. At the surface, the region will be between high pressure to the east and low pressure to the west tonight, with the low to the west making it to the western Dakotas by Monday morning.
347 PM EDT Sun Jun 23 2024 Scattered showers and thunderstorms will come to an end early this evening with the passage of a cold front.
Temperatures will be around 10 to 15 degrees above average again on Monday with widespread triple digit highs across the lower elevations.
(This evening through Monday) High pressure will continue to slowly build across the region. (Monday night through next Sunday) The 500mb ridge will continue to be the main feature driving weather conditions through the upcoming week. The ridge should build in over Texas with heights topping out at 592 dam, while 850mb temperatures look to be in the 18-22 deg C range, pushing to 24 deg C by midweek.
A warm day is in progress across North Central and Southwestern Montana ahead of a cold front that will push through the area today and this evening. Begin this Sunday under the influence of upper level ridging, with an upper level trof approaching from the west. A closed area of upper level higher heights is located over Texas, and the associated ridge presses northward into our region. This ridge adds mass to the approaching trof, causing said trof to pass along Montana's northern border.
For the rest of the afternoon into early this evening, an upper level disturbance/500mb trough will swing across the area. Trended toward the cooler guidance values across the north due to the longer duration of clear skies and light winds. A warm front will bring a threat of strong to severe storms into the area Monday night. The storms should develop on the nose of a 40-45 kt LLJ, and just north of the warm front. The track of the MCS is unknown, and likely dependent on the location of the warm front, but current model concensus shows the main threat area south of Hwy 29.
(This afternoon through Monday night) This afternoon, subsidence due to a westward expanding ridge of high pressure is maintaining mostly sunny skies across the region, with only a few diurnal cumulus popping up over the higher terrain of Southwest Texas. Chances are slim to none for any storms to develop this afternoon, with highs progged to top out near normal in the lower to middle 90s across the plains, 100s for portions of the Pecos and Rio Grande Valleys, and upper 80s in the mountains.
Thus, look for rather pleasant conditions overnight temperature wise with lows ranging from the lower 60s northeast to the middle 70s west and southwest. Given the upper ridge position anchored across E NM into the TX Hill Country, we are under the influence of enough northwest flow aloft that we may be dealing with some mid level cloud cover spilling down out of the Ouachitas late tonight and through the day Wednesday with a remnant cu field across mainly our western half where better low level moisture will reside. Expect similar conditions Wed Night in comparison to tonight with clear to partly cloudy skies and with the drier air in place, look for temperatures to radiate on down into the lower 60s northeast to the lower 70s west and southwest.