Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
746 PM EDT Sun Mar 17 2024 - Lake Effect Snow Tonight Into Monday Morning - Winter Isn't Over Yet - Lake Effect Snow Tonight Into Monday Morning The ongoing scattered snow showers will continue over the next few hours as the 500mb positive vorticity advection and trough axis move through. As the trough axis passes we transition more into northerly flow along with some colder 850mb temperatures working their way over the lake.
932 PM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024 - Much warmer Monday and becoming windy.
607 PM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024 Freezing temperatures and widespread frost are the biggest headline in the forecast for the next seven days.
603 PM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024 (This evening through Monday Night) It may be hard to believe based off today's rainy / stormy aesthetic, but the weather pattern is in flux, and it's heading towards a much needed spell of drier and cooler weather. Meanwhile to our north, a 1037 MB high pressure system, centered over Alberta, is drifting southward into the northern and central plains. As this high continues its southward trek, colder and drier air will rush down the plains and into SE Texas. Much drier and cooler air will advect into the region tonight into tomorrow.
649 PM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024 Tonight and Monday: A cold frontal boundary extends across the area this afternoon and is beginning to shift southeastward. Skies will be partly to mostly cloudy overnight, with lows in the low to mid 40s.
623 PM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024 (Rest of today through Monday) With dry cold frontal passage, colder and drier air is working into mid state region today from our north and will continue this trend through Monday afternoon. Lows tonight will dip several degrees below seasonal normal values with freezing conditions being met across most of our area. As impacts from Canadian high pressure system to our north continue to influence mid state's weather into Monday, highs are expected to be quite seasonably cool.
While radiational cooling effects may be tempered by light winds tonight, temperatures will continue to fall areawide with a period of near or below freezing temps expected generally along and north of I-40 (and higher terrain of SE OK).
Satellite analysis shows a stationary closed low spinning over the Four Corners region and mid level clouds spilling over the ridge axis and entering northern Wyoming. As the closed low begins to weaken the main upper level ridge will build across much of the Intermountain West on Monday. The synoptic pattern through midweek will be characterized by a Rex Block over the western CONUS as the remnants of last week's storm still spins over the desert southwest underneath an amplifying ridge. Our area will be somewhat on the fringe of the ridge, with northwest flow just to our east and general troughing over the east.
With winds collapsing thanks to a ridge axis extending over South Florida and the Keys, muggy conditions have invaded the forecast area. The low temperature at Key West International Airport has not dropped below 77F, which if this holds, will actually tie the daily record warm low temperature. The low level inversion is very typical within southerly steering flow due to the "Cuban Shadow Effect" that acts to shut down convection and in a lot of cases, cloud cover in general.
307 AM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024 * Unseasonably cool through Tuesday morning, with subfreezing temperatures possible both nights. H8 temps today will drop to -8 or -9C, so max temps this afternoon will struggle into the lower/mid 40s. Growing season is not yet underway based on partner feedback, but there is just enough early-developing vegetation to warrant a Special Weather Statement highlighting the subfreezing temps.
1259 AM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024 - Windy and warmer conditions on Tuesday may bring a fire risk to the area.
934 PM PDT Sun Mar 17 2024 High pressure will persist over the Pacific Northwest, keeping the region warm and dry through the early week.
Northwesterly winds will continue overnight advecting a cooler airmass. Some locations will hit freezing tonight, but frost formation might be a little limited, with dewpoint depressions of around ten degrees valley wide indicating available surface moisture is low. Northwest flow looks to strengthen Monday afternoon, bringing breezier winds to Tennessee and southwest Virginia, as the upper trough responsible swings fully into the region. In response, afternoon relative humidities will dip to the low 30s area wide. Some of the high resolution CAM guidance has suggested flurries/brief drizzle out of the clouds tomorrow afternoon.
This will help temperatures be lower than yesterday morning as dewpoints drop into the lower 40s. Tonight, temperatures fall again into the 40s and southeast winds Tuesday brings in warmer air sending highs back closer to normal.
(Today) Cold start this morning as high pressure at the surface continues to build into the region. It will be close on whether temperatures will fall below freezing in the Tulsa metro, especially with the potential for mid clouds to briefly spread into the area from the northwest.
- Sub freezing temperatures are forecast for this morning into and again tonight into Tuesday morning.
(Today through Tuesday) A deep trough will continue to dig into the southeastern US and bring some chilly early spring air to those folks. NNE to NE winds of 10-20 mph will gust to 25-30 mph at times, and highs will only reach the low to mid 60s in most areas. As the high settles in tonight, our northeastern areas should see some clearing skies and decoupled winds, which may allow a few locations to dip into the upper 30s by Tuesday morning.
Light to gentle southeast to south breezes observed along our reef are bringing little relief to these conditions as the low level ridge axis planted over South Florida has kept these breezes subdued throughout the night. As this approaches the Eastern Seaboard, it will drag an associated cold front across Florida with its passage through the Keys aimed for later tonight. As the previously mentioned ridge is pushed southeast by the incoming front, breezes will freshen and shift around to the west by this evening. Breezes will continue to veer to northwest by Tuesday morning as breezy and cooler conditions envelope our CWA. Following tonight's frontal passage, cooler and drier conditions will prevail until the end of this week.
A stationary mid/upper trough continues to spin over the Southwest while another large mid/upper trough was carved out over much of the eastern United States. A cold night is in store across the region tonight as high pressure settles southward over the Central Plains. Above normal values are anticipated with highs in the low to mid 70s. At the same time, the stubborn slow moving trough over the Southwest is progged to translate eastward into the Southern Rockies while northwest mid/upper flow prevails downstream across the central CONUS. Some cooler air may arrive on Wed a cold arrives but the bulk of cooler air may remain further north and east of the area.
413 AM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024 An upper level low pressure system will bring scattered to numerous snow showers and an unseasonable cold airmass to the Ohio Valley today.
Low level winds will back more to the west tomorrow, which should result in decreasing clouds and slightly warmer temperatures.
(Today and tonight) Weak ridging aloft through tonight as the upper low continues to spin over the Desert Southwest and a positively tilted longwave trough swings into the Mid-Atlantic. Sunny skies will finally make an appearance, but the cool air mass from the frontal passage yesterday will remain in place with below normal temperatures in the lower 60s. Southerly surface winds will return overnight tonight as the ridge builds into eastern Texas. Near normal temperatures are expected tonight in the 30s with chilly near freezing temperatures across the far southwest Texas Panhandle.
(Today through Tuesday night) Winds will remain light and variable for much of the day and then they will tend to become more southerly by sunset as high pressure moves off to our east. No precipitation is expected through Tuesday night as the upper low and is associated moisture stays west of the Panhandles.
257 AM MDT Mon Mar 18 2024 - Warmer weather, with occasional light mountain snow showers this upcoming week. The forecast area is still under a deformation region which is subsident with an upper level ridge builds over the northwestern U. High temperatures this afternoon will be around 10 degrees warmer than yesterday meaning the highs in the mid 50s today will be near normal for this time of year. Upper level low that brought the heavy snow will still be over the Desert Southwest Tuesday, although in a much weaker state.
Early morning satellite imagery shows a well established Rex Block over the WRN CONUS with a H5 low in Arizona and a broad H5 ridge directly north extending from the Pacific to the NRN Rockies.
The upper low, which has been over the Southwest for the past few days, will meander over western/southwestern Arizona today and tonight. Temperatures will be a little warmer today with the decrease in cloud cover, and highs this afternoon will be 60-65 degrees.
1239 AM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024 - Much warmer and becoming windy on Monday.
(Today) Mid/high clouds continue to spread into the mid TN Valley from the WSW, along/ahead of a reinforcing cold front moving southward thru western/mid TN. This oncoming frontal boundary will help usher unseasonably cooler/drier into the area today, aided by a sharp upper trough axis diving southward over the region. The influx of cooler air out of the NNW will also limit afternoon highs from climbing past the 50F mark for most spots, with sfc winds increasing to 15-20 MPH with higher gusts.
High pressure continues to build into Middle Tennessee from the northwest, and this is producing abnormally dry conditions across Middle Tennessee today and again tomorrow.
1128 PM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024 (This evening through Monday Night) It may be hard to believe based off today's rainy / stormy aesthetic, but the weather pattern is in flux, and it's heading towards a much needed spell of drier and cooler weather. Meanwhile to our north, a 1037 MB high pressure system, centered over Alberta, is drifting southward into the northern and central plains. As this high continues its southward trek, colder and drier air will rush down the plains and into SE Texas. Much drier and cooler air will advect into the region tonight into tomorrow.
The highs today will be held in the 50s north of Highway 84. This should lead to areas- widespread frost development along with several hours below freezing. The growing season has begun so frost and freezing temperatures will likely kill unprotected sensitive vegetation. At the surface, a weak ridge is expected to build across southeast CONUS.
A ridge of high pressure orientated east to west is dropping southward over the Great Basin. This along with a deep trough to our east is pushing the closed low pressure into southern Arizona. The ridge and trough have weakened the lapse rates north of I-70, but across the south the rates are just steep enough. Highs will be similar to yesterday only slightly warmer for places that had clouds and showers. Tomorrow a strong subtropical jet works northward and begins to shear the low pressure apart. That slight movement in the low will allow the lapse rates to steepen across the southern half of the forecast area. North of I-70 appears it will still be under influence of the ridge and so no cape. High temperatures will end up a few degrees warmer across the area.
- Additional fire weather concerns are the result of a cold frontal passage this evening/overnight, shifting winds from west to northwest with more widespread gusts of 20 to 35 mph.
Cooler, drier air is filtering into the region from the north and low-level cloud cover is continuing to break up. /NF/ Tonight and Monday: A cold frontal boundary extends across the area this afternoon and is beginning to shift southeastward. Skies will be partly to mostly cloudy overnight, with lows in the low to mid 40s.
1227 AM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024 A cold front has moved through Middle TN and cold air is building in behind it. (Rest of today through Monday) With dry cold frontal passage, colder and drier air is working into mid state region today from our north and will continue this trend through Monday afternoon. Lows tonight will dip several degrees below seasonal normal values with freezing conditions being met across most of our area. As impacts from Canadian high pressure system to our north continue to influence mid state's weather into Monday, highs are expected to be quite seasonably cool.
245 AM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024 - Ongoing widespread sub-freezing conditions resulting in a hard freeze through mid-morning today. The long-advertised hard freezing is ongoing this morning with temperatures already in the middle 20s outside of the KC urban area. Highs today will remain around 10 degrees below normal in the lower to middle 40s. High pressure slides off to the south on Tuesday, with weak upper ridging, and westerly H85 winds developing nosing a thermal axis into the CWA, spelling a quick warmup after a cool start. Highs Tuesday afternoon will be some 25 degrees warmer than today, reaching the middle 60s to middle 70s.
205 AM MDT Mon Mar 18 2024 Mild and dry conditions will continue through today ahead of much cooler temperatures later into the week, especially for North- central and Central Montana. The amplified upper-level ridging for the last several days will continue to prevail through the next couple days, preserving the above seasonally average temperatures and dry conditions.
1220 AM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024 (Tonight) At present, temperatures across the local area are generally in the lower to upper 50s and scattered mid to upper level clouds continue to stream overhead. A reinforcing surface cold front is also draped across northern Arkansas, northwest Tennessee, and up into eastern Kentucky. Hi-Res model guidance seems to be picking up on a slower trajectory, resulting in warmer temperatures similar to current forecast lows of mid to upper 30s north of the Tennessee River and upper 30s to around 40 degrees south. However, if the front is quicker, then temperatures could be cooler late tonight into early Monday morning.
(Today through Tuesday) Models begin the short term by showing a rather long frontal boundary, with sfc analyses stretching the boundary from a trough/low complex off the coast of NJ, through central Florida, and continuing across the central GOMEX. Meanwhile, broad and expansive high pressure builds across much of the east half of the CONUS, gradually pushing the front further south and closer to SoFlo. The front itself will be rapidly decaying as it becomes further detached from its parent trough/low complex well to the NE. Highs could push into the low 90s in some areas.
336 AM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024 - Temperatures will struggle to reach the low to mid 40s today, and a hard freeze (lows <= 28F) is expected again tonight across much of the area. - It will be much warmer on Tuesday with highs reaching the mid to upper 60.
149 AM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024 An upper level low pressure system will bring scattered snow showers and an unseasonable cold airmass to the Ohio Valley on Monday.
The models that continue to show fog aren't accounting for the warming temperatures and dry easterly ridge level winds in this current pattern well enough; so fog has not been included in the TAF at Roseburg for now.
Late this afternoon, a positively tilted upper level trough will swing through the region from the Great Lakes, switching flow to NWerly and pushing cold air over the open waters of the Great Lakes. This, combined with winds in the lower atmosphere aligning out of the NW could produce a somewhat structured band or multi-bands of snow over Oneida, Madison, and Onondaga counties. 1 to 3 inches could fall in Oneida County Tuesday with an inch across the higher terrain south of Syracuse.
Over Kansas, persistent CAA has kept temperatures from warming much this afternoon and should only top out in the low to mid 50s area-wide. Clear skies and light winds around sunrise Monday will drop temperatures into the low 20s and upper teens, creating a widespread hard freeze for any vegetation that has started to grow early over the past month. This will set the stage for another chilly day Monday as surface ridging and a north wind keep temperatures in the upper 40s once again. By Monday into Tuesday morning, the ridge axis will move east of the area and return winds to the south/southwest. Slightly cooler temperatures can be expected through the remainder of the week, topping out in the 60s area-wide.
(Today through Tuesday Night) High pressure will continue to build down from the Central Plains today but clouds probably won't be clearing much until this after- noon. Much drier and cooler conditions are on tap for tonight with lows mostly in the 40s across the FA (except for the Piney Woods where readings could drop into the upper 30s). Lows tomorrow night will be slightly warmer; in the low to mid 50s for most locations.
- Sub freezing temperatures are forecast for tonight into Monday morning and again Monday night into Tuesday morning.
A broad upper-level trough is moving into the central and eastern CONUS today with a large footprint of high pressure now moving south across the Plains and Mississippi River Valley. This coincides with a cold front currently moving across Central Alabama. This will usher in a noticeably cooler, drier airmass this morning. By tonight, high pressure is forecast to center near the lower Mississippi River Valley. High pressure will continue south toward the northern Gulf tomorrow.
A cold front will push across the forecast area today with a band of showers and isolated thunderstorms ahead of the front.
1222 AM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024 - Widespread sub-freezing conditions expected tonight. 925 hpa temps fall to near -7 C by tomorrow morning, leading to widespread temperatures well below freezing overnight. Growing degree days 50 range from 70 to 120 across the region, which is a little shy of where we would like to be for frost freeze headlines so will continue to just message freezing conditions without a freeze headline. As flow weakens through the afternoon, temperatures across eastern Kansas into western Missouri are expected to warm into the low to mid 40s. Area of low pressure moving from central Canada into the Great Lakes region will increase the pressure gradient Monday night leading to non-diurnal temperatures Tuesday morning.
1125 PM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024 Much cooler temperatures will impact the Mid-South tonight with lows in the 30s areawide. ANS Freezing temperatures and widespread frost are the biggest headline in the forecast for the next seven days.
217 AM MDT Mon Mar 18 2024 Synoptic Setup: Forecast begins with a ridge running north from California through Idaho and Montana, and cresting over southern Saskatchewan and Manitoba. Northeast Montana lies underneath this ridge with some of the warmest weather it will have over the next several days. Today through Tuesday: The ridge crest will southeast down the frontrange over these periods.
The ridge will move south and southeast of Oklahoma tonight allowing southwesterly low-level winds to develop this evening.
615 AM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024 (Today) Mid/high clouds continue to spread into the mid TN Valley from the WSW, along/ahead of a reinforcing cold front moving southward thru western/mid TN. This oncoming frontal boundary will help usher unseasonably cooler/drier into the area today, aided by a sharp upper trough axis diving southward over the region. The influx of cooler air out of the NNW will also limit afternoon highs from climbing past the 50F mark for most spots, with sfc winds increasing to 15-20 MPH with higher gusts.
558 AM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024 (Today) Cold start this morning as high pressure at the surface continues to build into the region. It will be close on whether temperatures will fall below freezing in the Tulsa metro, especially with the potential for mid clouds to briefly spread into the area from the northwest.
(Now through Tuesday) A much cooler and drier airmass will continue to move into the area today in the wake of a cold front. Skies will clear by late this morning with high temps in the low to mid 60s inland to upper 60s along the coast.
212 AM PDT Mon Mar 18 2024 The short term period starts with a large upper ridge over the area, which will continue to bring dry weather and above normal temperatures through Tuesday.
707 AM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024 An upper level low pressure system will bring scattered to numerous snow showers and an unseasonable cold airmass to the Ohio Valley today.
559 AM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024 (Today through Tuesday Night) High pressure will continue to build down from the Central Plains today but clouds probably won't be clearing much until this after- noon. Much drier and cooler conditions are on tap for tonight with lows mostly in the 40s across the FA (except for the Piney Woods where readings could drop into the upper 30s). Lows tomorrow night will be slightly warmer; in the low to mid 50s for most locations.
A blocking "Rex" pattern will continue through the early part of this week. The Pacific Northwest will remain under the high pressure part of the rex block and dry conditions with unseasonably warm temperatures will continue through then. The upper level pattern begins to shift today as high pressure gradually shifts southward and weakens.
A chilly start will give way to a quick warm up as the upper-level low over the Desert Southwest weakens and a ridge strengthens over western CONUS. Warmer 700 mb air will be advected into the region. Looking at an even warmer day on Tuesday as the upper-level ridge stays locked in place.
322 AM PDT Mon Mar 18 2024 Updated aviation discussion The short term period starts with a large upper ridge over the area, which will continue to bring dry weather and above normal temperatures through Tuesday.
Thus, trended down high temperatures into the lower 40s in southern middle TN and 45 to 50 degree range further south.
740 AM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024 (Today through Tuesday) Models begin the short term by showing a rather long frontal boundary, with sfc analyses stretching the boundary from a trough/low complex off the coast of NJ, through central Florida, and continuing across the central GOMEX. Meanwhile, broad and expansive high pressure builds across much of the east half of the CONUS, gradually pushing the front further south and closer to SoFlo. The front itself will be rapidly decaying as it becomes further detached from its parent trough/low complex well to the NE. Highs could push into the low 90s in some areas.
An area of low pressure and cold front will push across the waters through the day with scattered showers and storms possible in the vicinity of the front as well as increasing winds and seas behind the front with Small Craft Advisory conditions late tonight into Tuesday morning.
610 AM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024 A very cold and dry airmass will settle into the Lower Mississippi Valley through Tuesday. Widespread frost and sub-freezing temperatures are expected across the entire Mid-South late tonight.
549 AM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024 - Temperatures will struggle to reach the low to mid 40s today, and a hard freeze (lows <= 28F) is expected again tonight across much of the area. - It will be much warmer on Tuesday with highs reaching the mid to upper 60.
700 AM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024 * Unseasonably cool through Tuesday morning, with subfreezing temperatures likely again tonight.
Unsettled weather and cooler temperatures return late in the week. Dry and unseasonably mild weather will continue during the first half of the work week as the strong high pressure persist over the NWRN CONUS.
High pressure will continue to build into northern Utah maintaining warm, dry, and stable conditions through midweek. Meanwhile, a closed low over Arizona will continue to bring isolated to scattered rain and snow showers to southern Utah into Tuesday.