Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
(This evening through Tuesday) In the near term low cloud cover on the extreme southwestern flank of the mid/upper low that move over the region earlier today is exiting the forecast area. This setup likely supports the slightly warmer NBM numbers while presenting a small chance for some pockets of ground fog Tuesday morning. An increase in wind speeds to 15-20 mph is likely across the western zones as a mid/upper level trough moves across the Colorado Rockies while a deeper trough rotates onto the Northern Plains helping drive a cold front southward through the Panhandle and a veering of winds toward north late in the day.
1237 AM EST Tue Nov 19 2024 Dry conditions are expected through Tuesday with high pressure in control. 340 PM Update: High pressure will be in control for most of the near term period, which will bring continued dry weather. High pressure will remain in control for one more day on Tuesday, which will result in partly to mostly sunny skies and highs in the upper 40s to mid 50s. 340 PM Update: The weather pattern becomes more unsettled beginning on Wednesday, although it is possible that a large chunk of the day initially remains dry with a ridge moving to the east.
Much drier and somewhat cooler air wl advect into the Natural State behind this system, thanks to west/southwest winds.
1037 PM CST Mon Nov 18 2024 Temperatures are running a little warmer this evening with the elevated winds. A cold front will move east across move through the ArkLaTex region early this afternoon and through Arkansas overnight.
Chances for snow showers on the lower elevations remains low, but a few snow showers still possible along/south of I-70 Tuesday morning. Soundings are still very dry east of the continental divide and it'll be hard to get any measurable precip for the lower elevations with this system. There will likely end up being some minor travel impacts from the combination of snow and blowing snow, especially for the high mountain passes. Meanwhile, this system should usher in much cooler (and windy) conditions for the forecast area. Models largely support 30-40 mph wind gusts through most of the afternoon, with stronger gusts along the Cheyenne Ridge/far northeast plains where mean boundary layer winds are strongest. Some stronger gusts are possible over the high mountain peaks where cross-barrier flow approaches 50kt.
1242 AM EST Tue Nov 19 2024 - Rain chances build Tuesday night and into Wednesday ahead of a cold front passage. - Much cooler air expected late week behind the front. Min temps generally in the L-M60s, perhaps U50s for normally cooler locales across the interior. Mid-level ridging over the region will slowly get squashed southward with the approach of mid-level troughing. Dry conditions persist overnight and into Tuesday as high pressure continues to shift offshore the southeast coast. Temperatures mostly in the low to mid 60s Tuesday morning warm into the low to mid 80s through the afternoon.
1232 AM MST Tue Nov 19 2024 - Trough hangs around today, which will keep some light snow showers around mountain ranges. - A ridge develops over WY on Wednesday with a potential Bomb Cyclone (low) off the PACNW coast. This ridge will allow a warming trend through this week into this weekend before the low comes onshore.
This activity is occurring out ahead of a weak cold front across eastern Arkansas that will move across the area later today. A much stronger cold front is forecast to move through Middle Tennessee on Wednesday morning as a strong upper level low takes shape across the Great Lakes. (Wednesday Night through next Tuesday) In the wake of Wednesday's cold front, much colder temperatures will arrive for the rest of the week into the first half of the weekend with lows dropping into the upper 20s and 30s and highs only in the 40s and 50s.
- Cooler Tuesday behind the cold front. Several more inches possible for the higher terrain west of the Divide (60-70%) of 4 or more inches for the Tetons and Wyoming ranges, and 2 or more inches for the Gros Ventres and Salts. As this bulk of precipitation moves eastward, it looks to spread across the Bighorn Basin with some flurries before ramping on the upslope of the western Bighorns, where 40-50% probabilities for 6 or more inches progress for the higher elevations.
(Today through Wednesday) Mixing allows for a downsloping northwesterly lower level flow to take hold across the area making for a slightly warmer day today with high temperatures 10 to 12 degrees above average. An upper level trough passing by to our north will send a surge of colder and even drier air across our area tonight into Wednesday. Northerly winds speeds will be highest in the morning, then gradually decrease in the afternoon at time of the lowest humidities.
1025 PM MST Mon Nov 18 2024 Updated Aviation Cooler temperatures will persist through Tuesday.
- There is good (60-80 percent) confidence that temperatures will fall to at or below freezing across areas along and north of I-20 Wednesday morning.
In the wake of today's cold front, light to moderate northerly winds and more seasonable low temperatures are expected tonight. High temperatures Tuesday donât look to be much cooler than today, back up into the upper 80s to low 90s.
1004 PM EST Mon Nov 18 2024 Warm and dry high pressure will persist into Tuesday as it moves east. A cold front will approach from the west on Tuesday bringing mostly light rain into Wednesday as the front crosses our area.
The southerly flow will lead to building moisture ahead of the cold front, favoring scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms moving through the area tonight and Wednesday.
Confidence: Medium to High Large cyclone continues to spin north into Iowa this afternoon. Temperatures will continue to rise into the evening hours, along with dew points, and should increase to the lower 60s by 00z. With some return northwest flow by morning, lows will dip to the lower 40s west to the lower 50s southeast with increasing winds. Tomorrow the main concern will be increasing winds on the backside of the low as it moves away. As we move into tomorrow night, mins will drop to the lower to mid 30s over the entire region.
- Light snow accumulations (1" or less) can be expected northeast of a line from Mobridge to Miller Tuesday night/Wednesday, but the bulk of snow is expected over the Sisseton hills and the western side of the Coteau (25 to 45% chance of 4+ inches) See updated aviation discussion below. As the low continues north Tuesday night, precipitation may briefly taper off Tuesday evening before wraparound moisture moves back in. NAM BUFKIT also indicates that besides the low level instability, ascent (about 5 microbars) will exists in a mid level deck that will also exist within the dendritic growth zone.
Updated at 218 AM CST Tue Nov 19 2024 - A weak cold front will bring cooler temperatures from this evening through the end of the week. (Today and tonight) Longwave troughing is expected to deepen today across the Northern Plains. Prior to the weak cold front, sunny skies and light winds will let temperatures warm into the upper 50s in northern Oklahoma and near 70 along the Red River. With cold and clear skies tonight, lows will dip down toward freezing across the northwestern half of the area.
Precipitation will taper off around midnight MST as a weak ridge forms over the region. This combination will bring continued precipitation, rising snow levels, and warmer temperatures due to the area being in the system's warm sector with southwesterly flow.
(Today through Wednesday) High pressure over Florida will give way to an approaching cold front Tuesday into Wednesday.
A rather strong cold front sweeps from west to east across our counties this evening with impressive cold air advection and pressure rises behind the cold front. With 700 mb temperatures near -4 Celsius, maximum temperatures will be warmer, in the 40s. wind corridors of southeast Wyoming on Wednesday night as strong pressure gradients remain present over the higher terrain.
- Light snow accumulations (1" or less) can be expected northeast of a line from Mobridge to Miller Tuesday night/Wednesday, but the bulk of snow is expected over the Sisseton hills and the western side of the Coteau (25 to 45% chance of 4+ inches) Light to moderate rain continues along and east of a line from western Buffalo county to McPherson county, with the rain tracking northward. As the low continues north Tuesday night, precipitation may briefly taper off Tuesday evening before wraparound moisture moves back in. NAM BUFKIT also indicates that besides the low level instability, ascent (about 5 microbars) will exists in a mid level deck that will also exist within the dendritic growth zone.
- Another cold front will arrive this evening, ushering in cooler weather that will last through the rest of this work week. /Issued 1219 AM CST Tue Nov 19 2024/ /Through Wednesday Night/ The upper low responsible for yesterday's line of storms is now moving across Iowa. A reinforcing cold front will arrive to our northwestern counties around sunset this evening, pushing through all of north and Central Texas by sunrise tomorrow morning. This front will not lead to any precipitation, however, it will lead to cooler temperatures.
(Tonight through Wednesday night) The drier air behind yesterdays cold front has had difficulty pushing offshore, with dewpoints along the coast still hovering around 60. High temperatures will be in the 80s once again before the cooler airmass moves in tonight into tomorrow morning. The troughing associated with the yesterday's front finally pushes cleanly past our area tomorrow and will usher in the aforementioned cooler airmass. High temperatures will be 5-10 degrees cooler than today.
101 AM EST Tue Nov 19 2024 Warm and dry high pressure will persist into Tuesday as it moves east. A cold front will approach from the west on Tuesday bringing mostly light rain into Wednesday as the front crosses our area.
High pressure centered just off the Southeast coast continues to pump in a modified continental airmass across the area, with dew points still in the mid-60s. Looking more broadly at the mid-latitudes, a deep low pressure system is moving across the Plains and dragging a front across the Gulf Coast states, which is bring sever weather to portions of Texas and Louisiana this evening. High pressure lumbering southeastward off the Carolina coast will maintain moderate to fresh breezes through the first half of the week.
518 AM CST Tue Nov 19 2024 Updated at 517 AM CST Tue Nov 19 2024 - There is good (60-80 percent) confidence that temperatures will fall to at or below freezing across areas along and north of I-20 Wednesday morning. (Today through Wednesday afternoon) A cold front will make its way through the area later this morning and shift winds out of the north to northwest.
Currently - Strong deep layered ridging reigns supreme this morning. However, the pressure gradient on its southwestern periphery is being augmented by troughing over the Plains and western Gulf of Mexico. Surface temperatures are in the mid 70s with dew points in the lower to mid 60s. Expect dry conditions to continue due to strong inhibition holding on despite weakening mid and upper level ridging. Winds will slowly clock further south to south as the high moves out. The prefrontal trough is expected to swing across Florida and our area on Wednesday and will drag in much higher moisture levels. This along with the mid and upper level ridging flattening out and departing to our east will result in much higher rain chances in the Wednesday and Wednesday night time frame.
543 AM CST Tue Nov 19 2024 Updated at 218 AM CST Tue Nov 19 2024 - A weak cold front will bring cooler temperatures from this evening through the end of the week. (Today and tonight) Longwave troughing is expected to deepen today across the Northern Plains. Prior to the weak cold front, sunny skies and light winds will let temperatures warm into the upper 50s in northern Oklahoma and near 70 along the Red River. With cold and clear skies tonight, lows will dip down toward freezing across the northwestern half of the area.
Temperatures trend warmer with highs a few degrees above normal later in the week.
The surface cold front has moved through the northern 2/3 of the CWA and at 09Z was dropping through the Gunny Basin. There will likely be some flurries or very light snow falling over the high peaks of the northern mountains into the early morning hours where the dendritic temperatures will be ripe for snow. Warm advection should quickly take hold past sunrise on Wednesday as heights begin to increase with the upstream ridge building across the Intermountain West. A strong low pressure system will impact the Pacific Northwest into late week causing the ridge to continue building.
Conditions have remained relatively mild behind the last front with temperatures this afternoon forecast to reach just a couple degrees above average for this time of year with highs in the low to middle 80s. Then, much cooler weather will filter in behind the front! (12Z TAFS) VFR conditions expected into tonight with southeasterly winds around 10 knots this afternoon, could see some occasional gusts a little higher.
520 AM CST Tue Nov 19 2024 (Today through Wednesday) Mixing allows for a downsloping northwesterly lower level flow to take hold across the area making for a slightly warmer day today with high temperatures 10 to 12 degrees above average. An upper level trough passing by to our north will send a surge of colder and even drier air across our area tonight into Wednesday. Northerly winds speeds will be highest in the morning, then gradually decrease in the afternoon at time of the lowest humidities.
555 AM CST Tue Nov 19 2024 (Today through Wednesday Night) Cooler/drier air will continue to filter down into the area today in the wake of yesterday' s cold front. Lows tonight should range from the upper 40s across the northern most counties (Piney Woods) to the lower and mid 50s for much of the rest of the CWA. The secondary surge of even cooler/drier air will lower highs tomorrow to the upper 60s to lower 70. with lows from the upper 30s north to the lower to mid 40s central/south (mid 50s at the beaches).
By Wednesday, much cooler temperatures will filter into the Mid-South with freezing conditions possible by the end of this week.
(Today through Wednesday Night) Cooler/drier air will continue to filter down into the area today in the wake of yesterday' s cold front. Lows tonight should range from the upper 40s across the northern most counties (Piney Woods) to the lower and mid 50s for much of the rest of the CWA. The secondary surge of even cooler/drier air will lower highs tomorrow to the upper 60s to lower 70. with lows from the upper 30s north to the lower to mid 40s central/south (mid 50s at the beaches).
527 AM CST Tue Nov 19 2024 (Today through Wednesday) Tranquil weather will prevail today into much of tonight with weak high pressure in place across the region. Highs will range from the lower 80s at the beaches to the mid to upper 80s elsewhere. A cold front across northern Texas this afternoon is expected to push southward into central Texas late this evening and approach south Texas late tonight. The cold front is expected to arrive early Wednesday morning bringing much cooler and drier air into the region. Seasonal temperatures are expected on Wednesday with highs in the upper 70s to the lower 80s.
(Today through Wednesday Night) The upper low is expected to move into the Midwest today. Another upper low in southern Canada will move into the Great Lakes Wednesday and then move slowly southeastward. An upper ridge will develop in the western U. A secondary weak cold front will move through Arkansas today. This front will usher in cooler and drier air. With high pressure moving into the area tonight, winds will turn to the northwest and bring in colder air.
422 AM CST Tue Nov 19 2024 A fairly strong cold front made its way through the area last night, and is continuing to track out of the area early this morning.
558 AM EST Tue Nov 19 2024 (Today through Wednesday) High pressure over Florida will give way to an approaching cold front Tuesday into Wednesday.
521 AM CST Tue Nov 19 2024 - Cooler temperatures for the middle to latter part of the upcoming week.
A cold front will enter northeast Oklahoma later this morning and move across the rest of the forecast area this afternoon and early evening shifting the winds to the northwest.
507 AM CST Tue Nov 19 2024 (Today) A cold front continues to approach the Tennessee Valley region from the west early this morning, bringing very high (90-100%) chances for showers and a few elevated thunderstorms through the day. 0645z radar data shows a large cluster of stronger convection along the Gulf Coast of Louisiana and Mississippi -- with a areas of moderate to locally heavy rain (and a few elevated storms) extending northward across the lower Mississippi Valley and Mid South. 0 inch across the area -- with the higher values favoring locations east of I-65 where precipitation may linger a little longer into the afternoon and evening.
303 AM CST Tue Nov 19 2024 - Dry forecast for the next 7 days - Below normal temperatures for the second half of the week - Warming trend into the weekend As of 3 AM, much quieter conditions have settled into the region with the midlevel trough, responsible for yesterday's showers, now across southern MN. Cloud cover will once again be on the increase this afternoon as a secondary midlevel trough slides across the central Plains. Afternoon temperatures will range from the upper 40s across central KS to the low 60s in southeast KS. Temperatures will remain near to slightly below normal through weeks end with highs generally in the low to mid 50s.
503 AM EST Tue Nov 19 2024 High pressure will build toward the region today into Wednesday.
302 AM MST Tue Nov 19 2024 - Trough hangs around today, which will keep some light snow showers around mountain ranges. - A ridge develops over WY on Wednesday with a potential Bomb Cyclone (low) off the PACNW coast. This ridge will allow a warming trend through this week into this weekend before the low comes onshore.
526 AM CST Tue Nov 19 2024 (Tonight through Wednesday night) The drier air behind yesterdays cold front has had difficulty pushing offshore, with dewpoints along the coast still hovering around 60. High temperatures will be in the 80s once again before the cooler airmass moves in tonight into tomorrow morning. The troughing associated with the yesterday's front finally pushes cleanly past our area tomorrow and will usher in the aforementioned cooler airmass. High temperatures will be 5-10 degrees cooler than today.
High pressure aloft will bring warmer temperatures to the area as the week progresses. There will be period of high clouds moving across the area today as a weak upper level trof moves thru the Great Basin.
559 AM CST Tue Nov 19 2024 A fairly strong cold front made its way through the area last night, and is continuing to track out of the area early this morning.
A transient ridge will build in from the west later today into Wednesday. The ridge axis will begin shifting eastward early Wednesday with flow aloft turning southwesterly, which will allow temperatures to warm by around 5 to 10 degrees as compared to today and return to near normal.
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: A Great Plains Low tracking north northeast out of the plains and a cold front that moved through Montana yesterday will stall out over central North Dakota today as a low pressure center currently in SE Saskatchewan merges with the Great Plains Low today in eastern North Dakota. Meanwhile, an upper level low moves across the NE corner of Montana this morning. The low moves to the east on Wednesday while high pressure moves into the area with diminishing winds.
(Today through Wednesday) Tranquil weather will prevail today into much of tonight with weak high pressure in place across the region. Highs will range from the lower 80s at the beaches to the mid to upper 80s elsewhere. A cold front across northern Texas this afternoon is expected to push southward into central Texas late this evening and approach south Texas late tonight. The cold front is expected to arrive early Wednesday morning bringing much cooler and drier air into the region. Seasonal temperatures are expected on Wednesday with highs in the upper 70s to the lower 80s.
Updated at 232 AM CST Tue Nov 19 2024 - There is good (60-80 percent) confidence that temperatures will fall to at or below freezing across areas along and north of I-20 Wednesday morning. (Today through Wednesday afternoon) A cold front will make its way through the area later this morning and shift winds out of the north to northwest.
552 AM CST Tue Nov 19 2024 (Today through Wednesday Night) The upper low is expected to move into the Midwest today. Another upper low in southern Canada will move into the Great Lakes Wednesday and then move slowly southeastward. An upper ridge will develop in the western U. A secondary weak cold front will move through Arkansas today. This front will usher in cooler and drier air. With high pressure moving into the area tonight, winds will turn to the northwest and bring in colder air.
455 AM CST Tue Nov 19 2024 - Dry forecast for the next 7 days - Below normal temperatures for the second half of the week - Warming trend into the weekend As of 3 AM, much quieter conditions have settled into the region with the midlevel trough, responsible for yesterday's showers, now across southern MN. Cloud cover will once again be on the increase this afternoon as a secondary midlevel trough slides across the central Plains. Afternoon temperatures will range from the upper 40s across central KS to the low 60s in southeast KS. Temperatures will remain near to slightly below normal through weeks end with highs generally in the low to mid 50s.
Issued by National Weather Service Lubbock TX 1133 AM CST Tue Nov 19 2024 Updated at 1129 AM CST Tue Nov 19 2024 - A weak cold front will bring cooler temperatures from this evening through the end of the week. (Today and tonight) Longwave troughing is expected to deepen today across the Northern Plains. Prior to the weak cold front, sunny skies and light winds will let temperatures warm into the upper 50s in northern Oklahoma and near 70 along the Red River. With cold and clear skies tonight, lows will dip down toward freezing across the northwestern half of the area.
(Rest of Today) Much of the shower activity from earlier has tapered off to the east this Tue morning, as a cold front approaches NW AL. Lingering moisture below H7 will also keep cloudy skies in place for the remainder of today, as a broad upper low/trough pattern traverses across much of the eastern CONUS. Temps likewise in the lower/mid 60s will struggle to surpass the upper 60s across the east to the lower 70s closer to NW AL.
222 PM EST Tue Nov 19 2024 Rain with a cold front today. A reinforcing cold front Wednesday brings much colder air. A cold front will continue to provide a band of showers moving eastward across the area this afternoon. With some slight cooling in the lower levels, drizzle becomes a possibility tonight. A strong reinforcing cold front will then push through on Wednesday. The air will turn sharply colder Wednesday night in the wake of a strong cold front.
Current hi-res global models show a cold front over the east half of our forecast area. Elsewhere, areas in the Pine Belt Region will see highs in the low 80s. /CR/ A fairly strong cold front made its way through the area last night, and is continuing to track out of the area early this morning.
A dry cold front will move through the region tonight through Wednesday morning. Behind the front, much cooler air will move into the region with highs on Wednesday in the upper 50s to lower 60s.
(Tonight) Cold front continues to gradually approach NW AL from the west, as light rain/showers continue to develop/spread NE over parts of the area. The influx of cooler air in the wake of the frontal passage may also be delayed more to the daytime hrs Wed before sfc flow turns to the NW. Temps likewise into early Wed look to trend more in the lower/mid 50s for most spots before cooler/drier air arrives past daybreak.