Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
406 AM EDT Thu May 23 2024 Cold front exits the region by early this afternoon with scattered showers and thunderstorms for the southern half of the area. High pressure builds in tonight with quiet weather on Friday, however a weak system brings another round of showers and thunderstorms this weekend. Cold front and associated upper short wave will push through the region by early this afternoon. High pressure will finally build in behind this front this afternoon and evening.
It's a dry and quiet evening across east central Florida with high pressure in place over the Southeastern US. Favorable boating conditions are forecast with high pressure in place over the western Atlantic.
The low pressure system progression toward the east and highs in the 50s today will keep most thunderstorms over North Dakota, particularly anything severe.
Early this afternoon, a cold front was making its way southward and had become nearly stationary just north of the Concho Valley. More thunderstorms are also possible as moisture makes a return and the warm front provides decent lift, along with some upper-level support from a passing wave. For now, it appears more likely that highs will be toward the warmer end of guidance.
200 AM EDT Thu May 23 2024 *Showers & t-storms continue Thursday especially over south central PA; strong storm possible in the Lower Susq Valley *Rain chances trend lower into Friday before increasing over Memorial Day weekend T-storm intensity and coverage will diminish overnight as the best forcing/height falls lift to the north and low level stability increases with the loss of daytime heating. Will maintain lower POPs into Thursday morning associated with the arrival of a weakening cold front and a few rumbles of thunder are possible as elevated convection persists. Rain chances trend lower from north to south into Friday as upper level ridging builds over the area.
257 AM EDT Thu May 23 2024 A cold front will cross the area through the early morning bringing another round of showers and a few thunderstorms. Cooler more comfortable weather can be expected today into the first part of the Memorial Day weekend.
1259 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024 (This afternoon through Thursday) A couple rounds of thunderstorms will pass within close proximity to the northwestern portions of Central Alabama over the next 24 hours as a northeast to southwest oriented cold front slowly drifts towards the Mid-South region. The mid-level ridge axis has shifted east of the area allowing low-level flow to take on more of a south to southwesterly heading. Deeper moisture still resides to our west, so our dewpoints will mix down into the lower to mid 60s this afternoon and again tomorrow while lower 70s dewpoints are forecast over northern Mississippi and the Tennessee Valley.
1019 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024 (This evening through Thursday) Northerly winds will begin to weaken this evening as the upper trough ejects into the Great Lakes. Storm coverage is very much in question; the primary forcing mechanism will be a trough moving into the central/northern Plains, and secondary forcing from the STJ will pass through central Texas. Overall, the risk for severe weather at any one place tomorrow is on the low-to-medium side due to questions about storm coverage, but interests in the path of any of those storms tomorrow evening will want to pay very close attention.
1056 PM MDT Wed May 22 2024 - Breezy/windy and warmer Thursday with critical fire weather conditions over the Sangres/Wets. - Isolated afternoon and early evening thunderstorms possible over the higher terrain for Friday.
THURSDAY: Southerly winds will increase throughout the morning as a low pressure system approaches from the west, tightening the SPG. At the same time the cold front will be approaching from the west, forcing convection initiation. However, at the same time the low level jet kicks into gear, which increases the chance that a few strong to severe gusts could make it to the ground.
Northwest flow on the backside of the low and midlevel ridging has brought generally calmer weather to the area. Winds turn out of the south overnight advecting some warmer air northward pushing highs Thursday into the 80s. A leeward cyclone is anticipated to develop across the northern Rockies.
For the remainder of the period, deep layer ridging remains in place. Subsidence under this ridge, will continue to suppress showers and thunderstorm development across much of the area.
558 AM EDT Thu May 23 2024 Cold front exits the region by early this afternoon with scattered showers and thunderstorms for the southern half of the area. High pressure builds in tonight with quiet weather on Friday, however a weak system brings another round of showers and thunderstorms this weekend. Cold front and associated upper short wave will push through the region by early this afternoon. High pressure will finally build in behind this front this afternoon and evening.
The track of the low has shifted west and the residence time for the heaviest precipitation has shifted west with it.
Friday morning lows should range from the mid 60s in the western Big Country and northwestern Concho Valley, to the lower 70s in our southeastern counties.
KEY MESSAGES: -Ridging over the region will keep the area mostly dry through through 6pm. Lightning probabilities are low given convection is below the freezing level (10kft). Warm, dry conditions are likely to last for a large portion of the region under ridging. KEY MESSAGES: - High pressure and brief ridging should keep the area dry Friday.
557 AM EDT Thu May 23 2024 Cold front exits the region by early this afternoon with scattered showers and thunderstorms for the southern half of the area. High pressure builds in tonight with quiet weather on Friday, however a weak system brings another round of showers and thunderstorms this weekend. Cold front and associated upper short wave will push through the region by early this afternoon. High pressure will finally build in behind this front this afternoon and evening.
The associated upper trough will swing across the area on Friday.
High pressure ridges across the area through the weekend, with hot and mostly dry conditions continuing. The ridge axis shifts south for the weekend, with mainly easterly winds and afternoon onshore seabreezes shifting to a predominant west to southwest flow for the weekend.
1006 AM EDT Thu May 23 2024 A cold front over Northwestern PA will push southeast through the region by early this afternoon. A ridge of high pressure will slide east across the state Friday brining a nice day with dry conditions and comfortably low humidity.
632 AM EDT Thu May 23 2024 High pressure will remain off the SE coast today.
Weak high pressure ridging exists across north-central FL. Mid-level troughing continues across the western Atlc/Bahamas with mid-level ridging centered in the SW GoMex extending into the FL peninsula. At the surface, initial weak high pressure ridging off of the Carolina coast will weaken further and drift slowly eastward. These two days will also have the deepest moisture across the area with the highest PoP chances over the extended. Overall favorable boating conditions with weak high pressure across the area.
530 AM MDT Thu May 23 2024 - A cold front will be bring some isolated showers, maybe a quick storm, to the CO/WY border and the Continental Divide this afternoon and evening.
Any disturbances that ripple out of this longwave trough will provide the support for diurnal activity to organize and propagate eastward across the forecast area through this evening.
732 AM EDT Thu May 23 2024 A cold front over Northwestern PA will push southeast through the region by early this afternoon preceded by an area of showers and thunderstorms. A ridge of high pressure will slide east across the state Friday brining a nice day with dry conditions and comfortably low humidity.
951 AM EDT Thu May 23 2024 High pressure will remain off the SE coast today.
For the remainder of the period, deep layer ridging remains in place. Subsidence under this ridge will continue to suppress shower and thunderstorm development across much of the area.
624 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024 (Today through Friday) 500 mb high pressure centered over the Bay of Campeche, and extended over the BRO CWFA, will continue to be the dominant weather feature through the period.
531 AM EDT Thu May 23 2024 - Cooler and less humid weather settling in through Friday.
637 AM EDT Thu May 23 2024 Cold front exits the region by early this afternoon with scattered showers and thunderstorms for the southern half of the area. High pressure builds in tonight with quiet weather on Friday, however a weak system brings another round of showers and thunderstorms this weekend. Cold front and associated upper short wave will push through the region by early this afternoon. High pressure will finally build in behind this front this afternoon and evening.
DS/12 (Now through Friday) Surface ridging holds firm across the area through tonight. Currently watching a MCS moving across northern Mississippi, but CAM's all insist that this system will fizzle and/or be deflected from our area due to the strong ridging. As such, we are generally not expecting any precipitation for our area through tonight, although an isolated shower or storm could be possible north of the Highway 84 corridor this afternoon. Temperatures are currently in the low to mid 80s across the region, and will likely top out in the upper 80s over most inland locations this afternoon. On Friday expect another very warm day with highs in the low to mid 80s at the coast and upper 80s (to lower 90s over interior southeast MS) for all inland areas.
Upper level ridge moves across the area, helping boost temperatures into the 100 to 105 range for some areas.
Strong ridging over the area with drier air will continue through the next 7 days with the main weather hazard being the heat we will see across the area.
445 PM EDT Thu May 23 2024 High pressure building into the region will provide us with fair dry weather tonight and Friday.
Clear sky tonight as weak high pressure controls the weather.
331 PM EDT Thu May 23 2024 A cold front will approach from the northwest this evening into tonight.
There are multiple boundaries that can be seen on radar but dry air plus low level subsidence from a ridge parked over the Florida Peninsula is squashing any chances for showers to develop. Meanwhile, despite a light northeast wind, temperatures have had no issues rising to near 90 degrees with dew points in the low to mid 70s. Low level ridge will remain in place such that our winds will likely be light and variable at times through the first half of the holiday weekend.
1245 PM EDT Thu May 23 2024 - Cooler and less humid weather settling in through Friday.
As the main closed low departs toward the Dakotas, northwest flow will bring scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms this afternoon/evening, mainly across northwest Montana. Partial clearing may occur from I-90 southward on Friday morning, protect any sensitive vegetation as low temperatures will be near freezing.
Yesterday's upper low in Idaho was in northern Wyoming this morning leaving behind clearing skies, breezy west/northwest winds, and cool temps in our CWA today.
Highs will top out in the low-to-mid 90s. Winds will switch to generally out of the north across the region Friday morning as a cold front moves through.
KEY MESSAGES: -Ridging over the region will keep the area mostly dry through through 6pm. Lightning probabilities are low given convection is below the freezing level (10kft). Warm, dry conditions are likely to last for a large portion of the region under ridging.
107 PM EDT Thu May 23 2024 Behind a passing cold front, cooler and more comfortable temperatures are expected into the weekend. High pressure moving into the region will provide for fair weather today and Friday.
1245 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024 (Today through Friday) 500 mb high pressure centered over the Bay of Campeche, and extended over the BRO CWFA, will continue to be the dominant weather feature through the period.
Afternoon satellite imagery shows an upper low moving into central Wyoming but clouds and moisture associated with this feature remain in place across eastern portions of the forecast area. Did see some light snowfall from around Rexburg up through Island Park this morning and temperatures have warmed up enough in the lower levels for a changeover to rain but light snow still continues in the higher terrain and will continue into the mid evening. As the low continues to push east, should continue to see gradual clearing throughout the overnight allowing temperatures to drop once again close to the freezing mark in the lower elevations and into the 20s across the high country.
230 PM MDT Thu May 23 2024 - A cold front will push south across the the plains this evening with isolated showers possible. - Typical summertime pattern coming up this weekend with some scattered showers and storms across the high terrain. There is an upper low circulation over north central Wyoming at this time. Models show a weak upper trough axis to push eastwards across the CWA this evening. Models are still showing a cold front to push southward across the plains early this evening. For temperatures, Friday's highs look 3-6 C cooler than today's and that is after a chilly start to the day.
1228 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024 GOES-16 Water Vapor satellite trends indicate an MCS propagating east-southeast across the Lower Mississippi Valley.
118 PM EDT Thu May 23 2024 High pressure will remain off the SE coast today.
307 PM EDT Thu May 23 2024 A front will remain just south of the Commonwealth tonight and Friday, while a ridge of high pressure slides east across the state bringing a couple of nice days with dry conditions and comfortably low humidity.
Ridging over the Gulf of Mexico is suppressing rain chances for much of the Gulf Coast region and producing zonal flow aloft.
An upper level ridge over Northern Mexico and South Texas will support broad subsidence across the region, limiting cloud cover during the afternoon.
418 PM EDT Thu May 23 2024 A weak cold front slowly pushes offshore tonight.
Early afternoon temperatures have warmed into the low/mid 80s with southerly winds of 5-15 mph. But given the track of recent showers, have the higher chances more to the north, with it dry over our SE areas for a few hours this evening.
211 PM EDT Thu May 23 2024 High pressure building into the region will provide for fair weather tonight and Friday.
Inland lows will fall to the mid and upper 60s, ranging to the lower 70s at coastal locations.
123 PM EDT Thu May 23 2024 - Friday brings more nice weather to kick off the holiday weekend, mostly sunny with highs in the lower 80s.
246 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024 - Thunderstorms are expected to move across the area on Friday ahead of a cold front.
Showers associated with the cold front have mostly moved eastward out of the region, with clearing skies seen across northern New York. While surface instability is nil due to nocturnal stabilization, elevated instability and strong ascent along prefrontal troughs are kicking off and maintaining thunderstorms overnight.
-Chances for storms are higher overnight along a cold front.
Mesoanalysis shows the best instability to our west, so the storms that are developing in Middle TN will have the best chance of becoming severe, and with a an effective shear max located over the northern Plateau/eastern KY, that area will have the highest severe chance as those storms track NE.
The low pressure system progression toward the east and highs in was the mid 50s today will keep most thunderstorms over North Dakota, particularly anything severe.
106 PM EDT Thu May 23 2024 A front will remain just south of the Commonwealth tonight and Frida, while a ridge of high pressure slides east across the state bringing a nice day with dry conditions and comfortably low humidity.
1113 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024 GOES-16 Water Vapor satellite trends indicate an MCS propagating east-southeast across the Lower Mississippi Valley.
111 PM EDT Thu May 23 2024 A slow moving cold front will move through the area today and tonight, moving offshore early Friday morning. Weak high pressure builds in Friday and remains Friday night.
1027 PM EDT Thu May 23 2024 High pressure building into the region will provide us with fair dry weather through Friday.
759 PM EDT Thu May 23 2024 A cold front will approach from the northwest this evening into tonight.
A closed low will move into the western part of the Dakotas this afternoon and evening, with a warm front over the Dakotas. A cold front is expected to move through the region later today, which will be the lifting mechanism for the main part of our severe weather concerns. Friday, the cold front will clear the region, with the low lifting to the north, into Canada. For the rest of the day, dry conditions and cooler temperatures are expected. Breezy conditions are expected through mid- afternoon, easing off from southwest to northeast as the low moves out.
(Now through Friday) Surface ridging holds firm across the area through tonight. Currently watching a MCS moving across northern Mississippi into northern Alabama, but CAM's seem to be correct in that this system will fizzle and be deflected from our area due to the strong ridging. On Friday expect another very warm day with highs in the low to mid 80s at the coast and upper 80s (to lower 90s over interior southeast MS) for all inland areas.
- Warmer and drier Friday before unsettled conditions return for the weekend. Cooler and wetter conditions are ongoing today as a low pressure system rotates across northern Wyoming. That focus has now shifted to northern areas as the low moves farther east. Lows around or just under the freezing mark are expected for much of the Bighorn Basin; given that they are past the average last freeze date, we will be upgrading the Freeze Watch to a Warning. Friday will be warmer and drier as a weak transitory ridge takes over, though still about five degrees below normal for this time of year.
Dry, clear skies today will diminish tomorrow as a trough moves through Friday. Clear skies and dry weather associated with a ridge aloft will bring the potential for a chilly morning in the interior valleys of eastern Humboldt and Trinity counties, though temperatures will be a few degrees warmer than last night. The coastal areas will be much warmer than last night as the influence of stratus will prevent radiational cooling. HREF has the chance of measurable precipitation along the coast at 80%, with also high probabilities over the higher terrain, especially in the King Range and Trinity Alps.
620 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024 - Thunderstorms are expected to move across the area on Friday ahead of a cold front.
Weak ridging gives way to yet another trough of low pressure shifts inland on Friday.
Temperatures will cool off the next few days as another trough of low pressure sweeps through the region on Friday. Both the forcing and the moisture associated with the trough will be weak, so rain shower activity will be light, and mainly west of the Cascades in mountainous areas; relying on orographic ascent to help fuel them.
Very warm and dry conditions today as upper ridging continues to build over the region from the SW Gulf while the surface western Atlantic ridge axis stretches back over the FL Peninsula. This stacked ridging is producing strong subsidence and a dry air airmass aloft. Strong ridging over the area with drier air will continue through the next 7 days with the main weather hazard being the heat we will see across the area.
Rest of the area should remain dry overnight, but will keep slight chance in late tonight across far NE OK with development along an approaching cold front. Meanwhile, a weak surface cold front will move through a sheared environment, increasing forced ascent. With that said, considerable uncertainty remains with respect to how quickly the cold front advances, and it is possible that storms could form over a greater portion of the area if the front is a bit slower.
753 PM EDT Thu May 23 2024 High pressure building into the region will provide us with fair dry weather through Friday.
612 PM EDT Thu May 23 2024 A front will remain just south of the Commonwealth tonight and Friday, while a ridge of high pressure slides east across the state bringing a couple of nice days with dry conditions and comfortably low humidity.
Currently - Ridging dominates at all levels across the region this evening. At the surface through lower levels, ridging extends west southwestward across Florida and the Gulf of Mexico. The ridge is rather broad and is resulting in light east to southeasterly breezes across the Keys and surrounding waters. Thanks to the ridging in place, deep layered moisture is limited, particularly through the lower and mid levels. Mild to warmish early summer conditions are in place with temperatures in the lower 80s and dew points in the lower 70s. Dew points will remain fixed in the lower 70s. An Atlantic ridge stretching west southwestward across Florida will maintain light east to southeasterly breezes on Keys waters through the overnight period.
909 PM EDT Thu May 23 2024 A cold front will approach from the northwest this evening into tonight.
Brief high pressure will pass through the region today, leading to some cloud breaks for the afternoon, and warmer temperatures.
741 PM EDT Thu May 23 2024 High pressure will bring clearing skies and cooler temperatures tonight, and sunny, dry and pleasant weather on Friday. As of 730 PM EDT, cold front was still progressing south and east into the northern mid Hudson Valley and along the Berkshire/Litchfield County border. Dewpoints were still in the lower 60s on the south/east side of the boundary, with mainly upper 40s/lower 50s to the north/west. Clear sky tonight as weak high pressure controls the weather.
A similar repetitive forecast will continue as we head into the holiday weekend, as ridging aloft remains anchored from northern Mexico across the Gulf keeping shower activity, and any upper level features that could induce shower activity, at bay. At the surface, weak high pressure extends across the SErn US, resulting in a light to moderate onshore flow across the CWA.
1201 AM EDT Fri May 24 2024 - Friday brings more nice weather to kick off the holiday weekend, mostly sunny with highs in the lower 80s.
(Today and tonight) High clouds passing through the region this morning and through today in response to a transient upper level trough. Inland temperatures drop about 4-8 degrees compared to yesterday's highs as cooler air makes its way in behind a weak front. Coastal areas may see a degree or too cooler, but largely unchanged temperature wise. Main changes to the forecast this morning are the addition of drizzle to some coastal areas for this morning as the trough coming through will provide some weak lift within the marine layer, perhaps even enough for a few hundredths in a few places.
Main upper low is still coming out from the northern Rockies into the western Dakotas. While the main wind shift with the warm front is still mostly down in SD, there is some 55 dew points pooling further north near the I-94 corridor where winds are from the east. The precipitation will continue to wrap around the low pressure system as it lifts off into Canada Friday night.
345 AM EDT Fri May 24 2024 A cold front will drop into the Mid-Atlantic tonight, then return northward as a warm front Saturday afternoon.
A trough will drop into the Great Basin later today allowing for southwest flow aloft over our region. The low levels are rather dry and so initially showers will have trouble reaching the ground. Precip chances and coverage increase tonight as the trough approaches from the west, again mainly north of I-70. Tomorrow, the base of the trough passes over the area with the focus for lift across the north. Showers may expand south of I-70 during the afternoon due to the trough progressing eastward. The upper level trough will be just about directly over the CWA Saturday night with models placing the heaviest precip along the surface cold front.
229 AM EDT Fri May 24 2024 A weak cold front will drop across the area today into this evening.