Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Temperatures have climbed into the lower 30s north behind the cold front while temperatures have warmed into the upper 50s in the southwest. The cold front will continue to progress southward this evening bringing in cold temperatures. The aforementioned short wave is going to follow a dynamic upper level low moving across the Central Plains tonight. Portions of central North Dakota could see accumulations up to an inch however probabilities remain the lowest. The passage of this system and the cold front will lead to near normal temperatures. Northwesterly flow will continue across the Northern Plains this week as another ridge begins to build out west.
Hourly surface observations across the Island Chain are reporting temperatures in the mid to upper 70s already at this late Monday morning hour, as winds have quickly veered to the northeast to east in the wake of last evening's cold frontal passage. From synopsis, high pressure building just off the Mid-Atlantic States will promote a shift to gentle to moderate breezes northeast to east this afternoon. As the pressure gradient from the high increases, breezes will continue to freshen and veer Monday through Tuesday.
Showers have been dissipating as high pressure begins to build in.
Quiet conditions continue today and tomorrow as high pressure dominates the pattern.
1149 AM EST Mon Mar 3 2025 High pressure provides dry weather through Tuesday amid moderating temperatures.
1156 AM EST Mon Mar 3 2025 High pressure provides dry weather through Tuesday amid moderating temperatures.
Synoptic composite analysis for the CONUS places the base an amplified upper- level trough centered over the Four Corners region of the Southwest, with modest ridging to its immediate east extending from the Mississippi Valley to the East Coast. Surface reflection of these features include a frontal boundary extending across the Rockies, with expansive high pressure now moving just offshore of the Mid-Atlantic. With the high sliding offshore, near-surface winds have responded, now veering to the east across the Island Chain, which has allowed dew points to jump well into the 60s at most communities.
These -SHRA have not been very heavy, and have needed some time to gradually saturate the column especially over SCntrl AR/NE LA, but based on upstream observations which have measured the rainfall, have bumped up pops a bit for this area through early afternoon to low/mid chance before tapering off by late afternoon with the departure of the trough. But overall, 16Z temps have been trending a bit cooler than the current forecast, with the latest 12Z guidance suggesting the temps will struggle to reach the currently forecast values. The warmest temps should remain over Deep E TX where breaks in the OVC are ongoing, and as the warm front over Cntrl/SE TX begins to slowly creep towards the SW sections of E TX.
We will see this rapidly dying down this evening as the low moves into the Plains. extending into the highlands south of I-86. With warmer temperatures persisting, we should see some light slushy accumulation for lower elevations and 1-4" for the higher elevations where this mini- event sets up. Althoughhigh pressure quickly builds across the state, enough moisture remains for some light precipitation across the southeast and eastern highlands.
(Tonight through Tuesday night) Monday night our pattern will shift as a low pressure system and associated fronts begins to make its way across the CONUS.
water vapor satellite imagery showing the upper low center over eastern NV this morning and dropping south. An area of rain and snow on the back side of the low is impacting south-central Idaho south and east of a line from Gooding to Grasmere. This line of precipitation will shift south and weaken through the early afternoon and little if any snow accumulation is expected except across the highest peaks.
- Periods of snow tonight will bring some minor accumulation to southwest Montana with up to 3 inches possible near the Bridger and Gallatin Ranges. - Meteorological Overview: A closed upper level low tracking across UT this morning emerges in the central US plains on Tuesday with an axis of deformation to its NW shifting east across the northern Rockies and MT tonight. Snow amounts of 2 inches or more through tonight still look to be confined to areas where upslope northerly flow is most favorable, including the Little Belts/Snowies and adjacent foothills to the north as well as along some portions of the Rocky Mtn Front and Bridger/northern Gallatin and Madison ranges.
307 PM EST Mon Mar 3 2025 High pressure moving off the eastern seaboard this afternoon will shift off of the East Coast by tonight.
Showers will be drying up into the morning as the upper level wave departs the region and high pressure begins to build in.
1216 PM MST Mon Mar 3 2025 KEY MESSAGES: - Cooler, active weather expected for the rest of the work week. - Cooler, even wetter weather is expected around mid-month. The thick, mid-level stratus across the region means there is plenty of moisture to work with, but it is also blocking out much of the sunlight making it more difficult for conditions to become unstable.
Initially, the projected orientation of the line of storms is not ideal for QLCS (quasi- linear convective system) tornadoes, but there is definite potential for the line to become better oriented to the wind shear vector with time and the low- level wind shear is still sufficient that we will be watching for the potential of QLCS tornadoes as the line advances east.
117 PM EST Mon Mar 3 2025 High pressure centered over Pennsylvania early this morning will shift off of the East Coast later today.
1041 AM EST Mon Mar 3 2025 High pressure centered over Pennsylvania early this morning will shift off of the East Coast later today.
735 PM EST Mon Mar 3 2025 High pressure moving off the eastern seaboard this afternoon will shift off of the East Coast by tonight.
5 to 3 inches of snow expected over the lower elevations, and 3 to 7 inches of snow expected in the mountains and foothills of south-central Montana.
Radar is showing signs if isolated showers mainly west of the Cascades, but the trend is for showers to end late this afternoon as upper ridging builds into the area. The upper ridge will build overhead this evening, then shift east tonight with dry weather likely.
654 PM EST Mon Mar 3 2025 High pressure provides dry weather through Tuesday amid moderating temperatures.
The forecast and messaging for impacts related to a powerful trough moving into the Mississippi Valley region Tuesday are holding steady with severe weather timing mostly locked in for the afternoon to early evening hours. In any case, we still expect very strong winds aloft to be juxtaposed with whatever surface warm sector develops, and this will support organized storms ahead of a strong cold front, and perhaps the possibility of a few discrete supercells ahead of the more organized convective system over the central LA to southwest/ central MS area.
- Mixed rain, freezing rain, and snow developing tonight and turning to all snow Tuesday for far southeast North Dakota and west central Minnesota. Confidence remains the same in potential freezing rain sadly, as temperatures may end up too warm for impacts to be high enough to warrant a Winter Weather Advisory. Split flow aloft continues with the southern branch upper low rotating over the Four Corners region and brief upper ridging over the Eastern Plains.
Overnight lows will be several degrees warmer in areas along the Nature Coast with temperatures in the 50s and near 60s south.
These systems will bring breezy to windy southwest winds, elevated fire weather conditions, cooler temperatures, and precipitation chances.
In the lowlands, this will only amount to light rain up to 0. Tomorrows high temperatures will be in the 40s and 50s, so a bit cooler than today especially in central Washington.
- Windy and much cooler on Tuesday, with near to slightly below normal high temperatures in the mid 20s to mid 30s. Temperatures have climbed into the lower 30s north behind the cold front while temperatures have warmed into the upper 50s in the southwest. The cold front will continue to progress southward this evening bringing in cold temperatures. The aforementioned short wave is going to follow a dynamic upper level low moving across the Central Plains tonight. Portions of central North Dakota could see accumulations up to an inch however probabilities remain the lowest. The passage of this system and the cold front will lead to near normal temperatures. Northwesterly flow will continue across the Northern Plains this week as another ridge begins to build out west.
- Mixed rain, freezing rain, and snow developing tonight and turning to all snow Tuesday for far southeast North Dakota and west central Minnesota. Split flow aloft continues with the southern branch upper low rotating over the Four Corners region and brief upper ridging over the Eastern Plains.
452 PM MST Mon Mar 3 2025 - A cold front moving through the region has brought scattered snow showers and as well as blowing snow in spots. Cold front is currently sweeping eastward through the area in association with a midlevel low pressure centered over Utah. The morning commute could be impacted tomorrow due to the snow and cooler temperatures. The airmass associated with the cold front is not particularly strong and some places may see sun. Ridging across eastern Utah and Western Colorado will bring clear skies and a relatively cool start to the day with near normal temperatures. The heavy clouds and precipitation will keep the low temperatures well above normal in the morning, but will limit daytime heating. The higher mountains roads and passes may see periods with icy and snowpacked conditions, but impacts should remain minor.
829 PM EST Mon Mar 3 2025 High pressure moving off the eastern seaboard this afternoon will shift off of the East Coast by tonight.
Temperatures are warmer morning as a more tropical airmass moves over us ahead of a strong cold front. Winds will shift southerly through the days and temperatures warm up quickly with highs in the low 80's for most of us.
Winds will continue to subside as the low pressure system moves further east. Lighter northwesterly winds will persist overnight, helping to keep valley temperatures just above freezing.
These winds will not only make it feel a bit cooler than the actual temperature, the winds will be just as dangerous (and in some cases higher) than some of the thunderstorm wind gusts seen over the western part of Oklahoma tonight.
1244 AM PST Tue Mar 4 2025 High temperatures this afternoon will be around five degrees warmer than yesterday afternoon.
Since sunset, temperatures have come down to the lower 70s with accompanying dew points near 60F. We have noticed that the Key West International Airport ASOS has reported frequent gusts around 20 mph over the past few hours, and this may make it feel a little bit cooler for those of us who are accustomed to the Florida heat and humidity. From synopsis, high pressure building just off the Mid-Atlantic States will allow for gentle to moderate easterly breezes to continue through the overnight. As the pressure gradient from the high increases across the Keys, breezes will continue to freshen for Tuesday and Tuesday night.
- Windy and much cooler today, with near to slightly below normal high temperatures in the mid 20s to lower 30s.
402 AM MST Tue Mar 4 2025 KEY MESSAGES: - Cooler, active weather expected for the rest of the work week. - Warmer and dry conditions this weekend.
High pressure builds back into the region today, brining with it warming temperatures and dry conditions.
Temperatures across the Island Chain are in the lower 70s. For today, winds will slightly increase as the nearby high pressure's gradient tightens.
A large, deepening cyclone is evident across the Central Plains this morning. Through today, the center of low pressure will propagate northeast into Missouri. As the low pressure propagates east into the Great Lakes Wednesday, winds will relax and any remaining precipitation will quickly diminish.
340 AM CST Tue Mar 4 2025 - Light rain that develops this morning from central to northeast South Dakota will transition to freezing rain and then snow through the next several hours.
02Z water vapor imagery showed an upper low lifting northeast over NEB. So have not made any changes to the high wind warning.
Timing and all variables associated with this cold front that moves through today will also remain the same. All locations will be clear by Wed morning, but it remain breezy as strong high pressure moves in with cool dry air.
Tomorrow a cold front will move through the area bringing a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms.
Issued 320 AM CST Tue Mar 4 2025 Today through Wednesday: GOES water vapor imagery/RAP analysis showed a strong mid-level trough across eastern CO with a plume of deep moisture surging northward ahead of the trough.
High pressure building upstream will bring a brief period of drying this afternoon through tonight.
Snow accumulations up to an inch are possible, with the highest totals west of I 69 and north of US 6.
Strong northwesterly winds continue this afternoon and will slowly diminish through this evening as the upper low responsible for today's wind event moves east away from the region and an upper ridge pushes in from behind therefore, the High Wind Warning will remain in effect until 9 PM. North to northwesterly winds will remain light overnight through tomorrow before shifting to the south tomorrow afternoon as ridging develops southeast of the region.
A weak ridge will transition over the area today before the next system arrives late this afternoon from the Gulf of Alaska. Forecast has been updated to add mention of showers this afternoon and evening for much of the lower valleys.
(Tonight) At 19Z, a multi-focal surface cyclone was located in northern OK into southeast KS.
High temperatures this afternoon will be around five degrees warmer than yesterday afternoon.
This trend is expected to continue over the next few hours so very few changes have been made to the forecast other than minor adjustments to temperatures and dew points behind the line of convection where it's a bit cooler than previously advertised.
Winds decrease slightly this evening before cranking back up again tomorrow ahead of the cold front. Current guidance on the cold front has it reaching the nature coast in the morning, then moving SE reaching Tampa area in the afternoon and SWFL late afternoon, early evening.
In the Lower Keys, the KKEY 12Z balloon sampled a PWAT value matching the 25th percentile for the day. Overnight, gradient winds will freshen to moderate to fresh across the island chain with a slight increase in showers ahead of an expected cold frontal passage. From synopsis, high pressure building just off the Mid-Atlantic States will allow for gentle to moderate easterly breezes to continue through the overnight. As the pressure gradient from the high increases across the Keys, breezes will continue to freshen for Tuesday and Tuesday night. A cold front will approach the Gulf Coast on Wednesday, supporting slackening breezes.
1104 AM CST Tue Mar 4 2025 (Rest of Today) Intensifying surface cyclone over northern KS will move into northern MO this afternoon. High-based showers will develop this afternoon well in advance of the incoming QLCS/cold front. The QLCS/cold front is forecast to reach the I-55 corridor by ~23Z, and arriving in northwest AL by 00-01Z at the latest.
(This evening through Wednesday) Very windy and dusty conditions are ongoing this afternoon across west central Texas as a strong low pressure system moves eastward across Oklahoma and into Missouri. The low pressure center and associated upper trough should continue to move rapidly eastward this evening and allow winds to quickly diminish between 7pm and 10pm. A second cold front, this time of northern Plains origin, will push southward into west Texas overnight and turn winds out of the northwest. A 1020mb area of high pressure should move into west central Texas by midday, resulting in light and variable winds and high temperatures in the mid 60s.
335 PM EST Tue Mar 4 2025 Strong low pressure moving from the middle Mississippi Valley into the Great Lakes will provide above normal temperatures, periods of showers, and gusty winds tonight. Additional precipitation will accompany a cold front late Wednesday into Wednesday night. Strong low pressure will move from northern Missouri into northern Illinois tonight. Ahead of the low, an occluding frontal system will be preceded by a strong 850mb low level jet of 60-80 knots nosing north into middle Ohio Valley. Dry slot behind the occluded boundary will offer a reprieve in the precipitation Wednesday morning before the main cold front approaches the region late in the day.
(Rest of Today) Intensifying surface cyclone over northern KS will move into northern MO this afternoon. High-based showers will develop this afternoon well in advance of the incoming QLCS/cold front. The QLCS/cold front is forecast to reach the I-55 corridor by ~23Z, and arriving in northwest AL by 00-01Z at the latest.
There is a line of showers reaching east of the Cascades that will continue moving east through the early afternoon along a cold front. Freezing level from this mornings sounding was 6200 feet, which will put the snow level around 5200-5500 feet.
Freezing level from this mornings sounding was 6200 feet, which will put the snow level around 5200-5500 feet. Those ceilings could lower a bit later this morning ahead of the cold front. Eventually, the cold front will push through later this afternoon with conditions drying quickly behind the front.
Winds of 40 to 50 knots out of the west at 850mb will be mixed to the surface as subsidence and abundant sunshine on the west side of the upper level trough axis work into the area. Temperatures will be cooler, with highs in the mid 60s to lower 70s.
Currently a low pressure system is moving through Kansas, and affecting the northern Great Plains, along with a short wave. Quasi split flow aloft is setup over the Northern Great Plains with a short wave over North Dakota, and a closed low over Kansas. Tonight will remain breezy as the strong pressure gradient sticks around between the high and low pressure. Average for this week is the lower 30s. The Turtle Mountains will of course be cooler as they still have about 9 inches of snow on the ground.
(Rest of today through Wednesday) Clear skies for right now, with clouds invading from the west ahead of a cold front. The cold front brings both our wind threat and severe threat this evening. Impacts from these high winds will include power outages so make sure your devices are charged! For the severe threat, a cold front will push through the area into tonight.
Wrap around moisture behind the low will likely bring an additional chance for showers and a few rumbles of thunder as it moves across portions of the state. Additionally, some light snow cannot be ruled out across the highest elevations of northern Arkansas. A big story early in the period will also be the gusty gradient winds on the back end of this departing low pressure system late Tuesday and through most of Wednesday.
As the low moves east through the rest of the afternoon and evening strong northerly winds with gusts up to 60 mph will spread from west to east. The highest probability (>80 percent) of blizzard conditions still looks across northeast Kansas.
Some spotty showers are expected through most of Wednesday across central and eastern Idaho, as limited moisture moves through as high pressure builds across the area. While we expect all snow the farther north you go, from the Snake Plain south into the highlands. We will see warmer temperatures and downslope "eating away" at snow totals from Burley to Rexburg and along the benches.
Forcing and moisture associated with the trough extends far enough north to brush into portions of west-central Minnesota this afternoon. Looking ahead ensemble guidance depicts an upper pattern that features a broad upper low over the Hudson Bay, with a progressive wave pattern to its southern flanks.
Light rain may be observed at times, with better chances arriving Wednesday morning as an upper level low enters the region.
528 PM CST Tue Mar 4 2025 (Tonight) At 19Z, a multi-focal surface cyclone was located in northern OK into southeast KS.
The surface pressure gradient continues to be quite sharp with the ejecting low across the mid- section of the country while Canadian high pressure settles south into the Northern Plains. As the low continues to wrap up and lift farther northward, some isolated lingering convection will remain possible along the Ouachitas into the the early evening hours but this is not expected to be of any real significance. In addition, the increasingly strong and gusts W/SW winds along and behind the cold front may also allow for some blowing dust from West TX to drift eastward into parts of East TX and possibly North LA after sunset. As winds drop off on Wednesday night under the influence of high pressure, temperatures will plummet down into the 30s areawide with some of northernmost zones dropping to near the freezing mark.
Brief ridging will result in dry and tranquil conditions through Wednesday morning.
The general consensus is for showers to increase in coverage east of the Cascades shortly after noon, then elsewhere further into Wednesday afternoon and evening as the upper trough axis moves into southwest Oregon. An upper trough will move over the area Wednesday night with showers likely. Snowfall amounts are expected to be highest over the higher terrain, like the Warners, and Summer Rim, with local amounts up to 8 inches.
An area of high pressure will bring warm temperatures today and Wednesday, before more rain/snow showers return to the forecast.
645 PM EST Tue Mar 4 2025 Strong low pressure moving from the middle Mississippi Valley into the Great Lakes will provide above normal temperatures, periods of showers, and gusty winds tonight. Additional precipitation will accompany a cold front late Wednesday into Wednesday night. Strong low pressure will move from northern Missouri into northern Illinois tonight. Ahead of the low, an occluding frontal system will be preceded by a strong 850mb low level jet of 60-80 knots nosing north into middle Ohio Valley. Dry slot behind the occluded boundary will offer a reprieve in the precipitation Wednesday morning before the main cold front approaches the region late in the day.
(Rest of today through Wednesday) Clear skies for right now, with clouds invading from the west ahead of a cold front. The cold front brings both our wind threat and severe threat this evening. Impacts from these high winds will include power outages so make sure your devices are charged! For the severe threat, a cold front will push through the area into tonight. Cigs will fall to MVFR thresholds around 12Z as a cold front sweeps through the area.
Band of showers and thunderstorms will move across the area Wednesday ahead of the cold front, and still looks like highest chance of strong to severe storms will be from around Tampa Bay and the Interstate 4 corridor northward.
Because of this temps will be slightly cooler by a few degrees in North Dakota but no other impacts. Forcing and moisture associated with the trough extends far enough north to brush into portions of west-central Minnesota this afternoon. Looking ahead ensemble guidance depicts an upper pattern that features a broad upper low over the Hudson Bay, with a progressive wave pattern to its southern flanks. As the main upper wave moves through and high pressure begins to build into the region Wednesday, CIGS to begin to lift through the day Wednesday with a transition to VFR expected through mid/late day toward the end of the current forecast period.