Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1026 PM MST Sun Feb 11 2024 The upper low that brought us active weather is continuing to sweep eastward and out of the area today. Tonight will be the coldest night of the forecast period with freezing temperatures areawide tonight.
Cold front sweeps thru the central Gulf coast between 12.
Light to calm winds will make it seem a little warmer than yesterday, but still a cold morning nonetheless.
1153 PM EST Sun Feb 11 2024 - Above normal temperatures continue through midweek, but a late week cold front cools temperatures to near-normal.
1012 PM MST Sun Feb 11 2024 - Warmer and drier through mid week.
128 AM MST Mon Feb 12 2024 - Warmer and drier through mid week.
1136 PM CST Sun Feb 11 2024 - Low pressure will bring light snow showers and flurries to the region tonight into Monday with accumulations around an inch or less.
1039 PM CST Sun Feb 11 2024 (This evening through Monday night) A low pressure system is southeast of Lubbock, making a slight jog east-northeastward or northeastward. Radar shows a plume of moisture moving up into western Oklahoma, then moving southwestward into the southern Texas Panhandle on the backside of the low pressure circulation. As the low pressure progresses and the dry air continues to move in from the north, snow will come to an end this afternoon from northwest to southeast and the Panhandles should dry out this evening. As such, there is some concern for re-freezing of any snow that has already melted which may cause for slippery roads and walkways. The rest of the short-term period looks dry and gradually becoming warmer.
So despite the full sunshine temperatures will remain cool today as the area snowpack melts with high temperatures ranging from the lower 40s where the heaviest snow fell yesterday to the lower 50s where little to no snow fell. Temperatures will drop below freezing once again tonight and with all the melting that occurs today black ice will once again be a concern overnight.
Outside of precipitation chances,temperatures are expected to be just a bit warmer today with most seeing highs in the upper 40s to low 50s. Average highs for mid February are in the lower 40s.
/NEW/ /Early Week/ A slow-moving upper low will continue to lift northeast away from the area later this morning. Temperatures remain just above freezing across that area and unless some dynamic cooling occurs, these temperatures will remain static throughout the night.
155 AM MST Mon Feb 12 2024 - Warmer and drier through mid week.
1050 PM CST Sun Feb 11 2024 (Tonight through Monday night) Key Message: - Near freezing wind chill values (feels-like temperatures) late tonight into early Monday morning, especially over northern areas - Hazardous marine conditions tonight through Monday Dry northwesterly flow will continue through the short term with speeds of 10-15 mph tonight increasing to 15-20 mph Monday morning. Tonight will be about 20 degrees colder than last night with lows in the low to mid 40s across South Texas. There is a low (10-30%) chance of feels-like freezing temperatures (wind chills) from Victoria to La Salle County. Sunny skies and slightly below normal highs in the low to mid 60s on Monday.
/Issued 1130 PM CST Sun Feb 11 2024/ /Early Week/ A slow-moving upper low will continue to lift northeast away from the area later this morning. Temperatures remain just above freezing across that area and unless some dynamic cooling occurs, these temperatures will remain static throughout the night.
258 AM CST Mon Feb 12 2024 Radar imagery this morning shows a line of severe storms slowly exiting eastern MS into western AL along a frontal boundary ahead of upper level trough. At the surface, a closed low is quickly ejecting out of the Southern Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley region. The low is expected to continue to pool cooler, stable air into the ArkLaMiss region, which will cease the development of any severe storms this morning into late morning. Precipitation will continue to linger along the low, bringing non-severe showers and some storms across central and northern Mississippi. Overnight lows are expected to range from freezing to the upper 30s as cloud cover/rain chances diminishes and evaporational cooling is maximized.
Water vapor imagery currently shows upper low situated south of Tulsa and southeast of OKC with deformation zone precip extending from southeast KS through central OK. By early this evening, upper low will be moving into the Tennessee Valley with west/northwest upper flow setting up over the Plains for tonight through Tue. As a low pressure system tracks east, rain and snow chances increase across southern KS late tonight. Given the higher likelihood further south, a tempo group appeared to be the best option for now.
At the surface, this system will drag a cold front into the eastern Gulf of Mexico this afternoon and through the Florida Peninsula tonight. Showers and thunderstorms will develop along the prefrontal trough and push into the Nature Coast this afternoon and through the rest of west central and southwest Florida this evening and overnight.
Overall, expect the cloud cover to keep temperatures mild this morning and a little bit cooler this afternoon. Then Tuesday night, the warm front passes from south to north.
540 AM MST Mon Feb 12 2024 - Warmer and drier through mid week.
The light snow could be mixed with light rain or light freezing rain mainly south of the Missouri River.
613 AM EST Mon Feb 12 2024 Dry and mild conditions are expected today before low pressure moving through the Mid-Atlantic states brings a light snowfall to southern Vermont on Tuesday.
Water vapor imagery currently shows upper low situated south of Tulsa and southeast of OKC with deformation zone precip extending from southeast KS through central OK. By early this evening, upper low will be moving into the Tennessee Valley with west/northwest upper flow setting up over the Plains for tonight through Tue.
(Today through Tuesday afternoon) The excitement is ending as the upper level low exits off to the east. Weak ridging/zonal flow takes over for the short term period causing a rapid warmup. Clear skies and light winds cause the overnight warming tonight to be slower as lows remain below freezing for most locations and only slightly warmer elsewhere.
534 AM CST Mon Feb 12 2024 (Today through Tuesday) Currently there is an outflow boundary right around the I-85 corridor, with a cold front to the west. This front is synced with a low pressure across southern MS/eastern LA. We will see the low eventually begin to lift north and east this morning, eventually allowing the rain to move eastward. Later this afternoon we will see the upper low swing through and could result in some light showers across the north before ending by Midnight. High pressure builds in on Tuesday along with cooler temperatures.
There are some passing mid/high clouds as expected this morning in the apex of the passing ridge aloft. The high peaks of the Park/Elkheads may be able to catch some of this and make some light snowfall but again impacts to lower elevations including the mountain passes are not anticipated.
Patchy freezing drizzle may mix in and cause slippery roads.
As high pressure remains in place this week, temperatures will warm up into a normal range as early as Tuesday and then to slightly above during the latter half of the week. Weak upper level ridging has spread over the region over the past 24 hours with the air mass gradually drying out. The weather pattern over the next several days will keep either weak ridging or zonal westerly flow across the Desert Southwest allowing the gradual increase in temperatures to continue.
Unsettled weather will persist today as a low pressure system impacts the Mid-South. Showers and possible wintry precipitation will continue through early Tuesday morning before high pressure overspreads the region.
With respect to temperatures tonight, the NAM/RAP/NBM temperature predictions generally agree with values from the upper 30s to the mid 40s, except upper 40s to lower 50s along the coast (Caveat, tonight over the CWA, light wind, dry vertical column, and clear skies suggestive of strong radiational cooling of temperatures to the surface dew points tonight, and the NAM/RAP predict surface dew points near freezing over the Rio Grande Plains/Brush Country tonight.
(Today through Tuesday) Fog will remain over Miss gulf coast and adjacent waters this morning ahead of the cold front that is slowly moving through. The most forcing is along and just ahead of this cold front and has been able to produce several severe storms with large hail, tornadoes and damaging winds. We don't see any freezing temps tonight or Tue night at the moment either but it will be cold.
Once we go into the later daytime hours the temperatures will go above freezing leading to a fairly rapid melt off of the snow, possibly all of it.
Throwing a monkey wrench into realizing higher snow accumulation potential will be warm ground temperatures that are not expected to fall to below freezing until after the precipitation ends around/shortly after 06z tonight, as well as the forecast reliance upon the evaporative cool down being realized to its fullest potential.
Banding of precip has led to highly variable conditions with some difficult travel being noted within heavier bands as snowfall rates overcome marginal temperatures, which remain at or above freezing. The overall trend through the remainder of tonight into early Monday morning is for the upper level low to drift eastward with precip continuing to expand across western AR over the next few hours, which areas of eastern OK to the west of US 75 will begin to see things wind down by 12z. Significant snow accumulations remain possible within the existing Advisory/Warning areas given the strength and track of the upper level low, with lighter precipitation prevailing south of I-40. Expectation is for temperatures to moderate above freezing as soon as snow ends with clearing skies from the west this afternoon, thus limiting travel impacts to the early part of today.
Before the low arrives, we will likely see widespread showers spread from southwest to northeast. unless the low takes a more northerly path which would probably bring those higher CAPE values a bit further north. Then we'll turn our focus back to the west as the upper low moves across the Tennessee River. The heaviest snow totals look to stay to our north, but there's a window of 2 to 4 hours when forecast soundings along and north of I-40 are saturated and below freezing, with the exception of the first couple hundred feet above the ground.
524 AM CST Mon Feb 12 2024 Unsettled weather will persist today as a low pressure system impacts the Mid-South. Showers and possible wintry precipitation will continue through early Tuesday morning before high pressure overspreads the region.
- Pockets of freezing rain are possible tonight across the western South Dakota plains, but meaningful ice accumulation is not expected.
Upper low over eastern Oklahoma clearly visible on satellite imagery this morning. The passing of this low will likely be the only way to generate enough cold air for snow as ground temperatures are borderline at best. The highest amounts for snow will be across the higher elevations of the Ozarks. Other areas of the north could pick up a few inches of snow with the highest elevations of the Ouachitas seeing some below criteria accumulation. The upper system itself moves into northern Mississippi by the end of the day with high pressure moving in behind it with dry conditions through the rest of the period.
* TODAY/TUESDAY: Ridge today will flatten Tuesday allowing for some increase in WSW winds, mainly over the ridges.
High pressure ridges over the area for the first half of today with southerly winds and warm temperatures expected. Farther to the northwest, an area of low pressure and cold front is getting ramped up as it moves through the southeast U. A cold front approaches the area this evening with a line of broken showers and storms expected to move through the area, with a brief period of MVFR to IFR conditions possible at terminals this evening. High pressure ridging across Florida this morning will slide eastward this afternoon as a cold front pushes through the eastern gulf waters waters late this evening. Winds will subside by Tuesday afternoon as high pressure builds back in from the west keeping rain-free conditions in place through remainder of the week.
05/Marty Previous Discussion: /Early Week/ A slow-moving upper low will continue to lift northeast away from the area later this morning. Temperatures remain just above freezing across that area and unless some dynamic cooling occurs, these temperatures will remain static throughout the night.
That story changes slightly as the cold front approaches close to dawn. Gusty winds will likely settle in on the back side of the system as the pressure gradient tightens as high pressure moves in and a Wind Advisory may be needed but given how much we have going on this morning the day shift will have an opportunity to take a closer look at this and make a decision.
Above normal temperatures will continue today as subtle ridging over the Northern Rockies with warm westerly winds persists. Overnight lows are forecast to drop down into the lower teens north to the lower 20s in the south. Precipiation remains the highest along the International Border with a 50 to 70 percent chance of snow by sunrise. There is a slight chance of freezing rain in the southwest before changing over to snow. A cold front will move through the region tomorrow morning contributing to lift for precipitation.
An upper level trough over the area will maintain precipitation today. Cooler and drier weather will follow Tuesday, with the next chance of precipitation midweek with periods of early morning rain/snow mix possible for some areas through the second half of the week.
Temperatures will gradually warm through the end of the work week, with dry and mild weather expected across the region as a ridge of high pressure builds in.
Skies clear out during this period as wrap-around moisture is dragged eastward by a passing mid/upper level trough. Highs today should be in the 50s with isolated spots in the lower 60s.
As this low deepens, expect north to northwest winds to increase across west Tennessee, the Missouri Bootheel and northeast Arkansas. There is some concern that a wake low could develop on the back side of the upper low this afternoon as it approaches the Tennessee River. Unsettled weather will persist today as a low pressure system impacts the Mid-South. Showers and possible wintry precipitation will continue through early Tuesday morning before high pressure overspreads the region.
(This evening through Tuesday) Fair weather is expected through the short term period as northwest flow aloft backs ahead of an upper level ridge that will move overhead on Tuesday. Otherwise, another clear night should allow for good radiational cooling while increasing heights/thicknesses with the ridge moving overhead combined with a bit of downslope warming point to a significant jump in temperatures Tuesday, especially for areas without lingering deep snowpack.
A bit of moisture will sneak into the region on the on the northern edge of the sinking ridge which will help to produce some light snow showers mainly across the Island Park region and perhaps into the central mountains. Maybe locally higher in the highest of peaks but overall, not expecting anything too impactful. Temperatures have warmed into the lower to mid 40s across the lower Snake Plain and Magic Valley this afternoon with low to mid 30s elsewhere.
- Light freezing rain possible tonight over the western SD plains, with little to no accumulations expected.
The upper ridging that has persisted over the past week has pushed southeast of the Bahamas as a closed low and upper troughing approaches the area from the west. These upper level features will lend support to an area of low pressure over GA/AL with associated cold front extending southward into the Gulf of Mexico. This cold front will move through the area later this evening bringing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms to the area.
As would be expected in zonal flow, the thick cirrus over the region is moving west to east, with the upper low that will return an active pattern mid week well offshore. With the thicker cirrus the low clouds may take longer to burn off, especially in the Grants Pass and Roseburg areas. Overall, expect the cloud cover to keep temperatures mild this morning and a little bit cooler this afternoon. Then Tuesday night, the warm front passes from south to north.
However, GOES-16 visible satellite imagery also depicts an incoming cloud deck from the Gulf of Mexico progressing east ahead of a cold front which spells the end of clear skies for the time being. Temperatures across the island chain currently range from the upper 70s to the lower 80s and feels almost like an early summer day with dewpoints in the lower 70s. This line of showers is expected to reach the island chain starting with the Lower Keys early tomorrow morning. This new wind direction will allow low temperatures to plummet into the lower 60s for the Lower and Middle Keys with upper 50s possible in the Upper Keys via cold air drainage from mainland.
(Through Tonight) Strong upper low is exiting the area this afternoon after bringing widespread rain and bands of snow to the region overnight last night and this morning. A few light snow showers still remain over parts of far northwest Arkansas and into far eastern Oklahoma, but temperatures above freezing will keep any additional accumulations or impacts very minimal. Other locations saw snow accumulate while precipitation was falling and then quickly melt by daybreak as temperatures stayed above freezing for the duration of the event.
1034 AM MST Mon Feb 12 2024 - Warmer and drier through mid week.
(Tonight through Tuesday night) An upper low is currently located over Arkansas with northwest flow over South Central Texas in its wake. Breezy northwest wind this afternoon will decrease late afternoon with light winds expected this evening and overnight as high pressure settles in over the area.
/Issued 1228 PM CST Mon Feb 12 2024/ /This Afternoon through Tuesday/ The upper low responsible for yesterday's rain and storms has completely exited the region and is currently moving through the southeastern CONUS, as seen on Water Vapor satellite imagery. Lingering cloud cover across our eastern counties thanks to wrap- around moisture will continue to move out of the region on the backside of the low this afternoon, leaving behind sunny skies across North and Central Texas. Sub-freezing temperatures will return to areas across North Texas generally near US-281 and near the Red River. Upper level ridging will build in behind the departing low, and with south to southwest flow returning, will set up the region for a warming trend over the first half of the work week.
231 PM EST Mon Feb 12 2024 A low pressure system moving through the Tennessee Valley will bring a chance of rain and snow to areas along and southeast of I-71 tonight.
1003 AM EST Mon Feb 12 2024 Low pressure system will track south of the region today, ushering in rainfall late in the day Monday.
Where precipitation hangs on longer it will stay cooler, with highs in the lower 40s in northwest AR.
Because of this, snowfall amounts look to stay on the lower end, and mainly north of highway 200.
A northwest wind this afternoon will become light southwesterly this evening, as high pressure builds over the Texas coast.
These are likely from a weak warm front that extends from eastern MT into southwestern ND. Above normal temperatures will continue today as subtle ridging over the Northern Rockies with warm westerly winds persists. Overnight lows are forecast to drop down into the lower teens north to the lower 20s in the south. Precipiation remains the highest along the International Border with a 50 to 70 percent chance of snow by sunrise. There is a slight chance of freezing rain in the southwest before changing over to snow. A cold front will move through the region tomorrow morning contributing to lift for precipitation.
Low pressure will track directly over our area later this afternoon, so it appears any severe storm risk for our area will be extremely low. There may be a few slick spots on bridges and overpasses for the morning commute with daybreak temperatures mostly 30-32.
Another brisk morning over northern Arizona, with single-digit lows in the high country and low-30s in the lowest valleys.
1133 AM CST Mon Feb 12 2024 (Today through Tuesday) Currently there is an outflow boundary right around the I-85 corridor, with a cold front to the west. This front is synced with a low pressure across southern MS/eastern LA. We will see the low eventually begin to lift north and east this morning, eventually allowing the rain to move eastward. Later this afternoon we will see the upper low swing through and could result in some light showers across the north before ending by Midnight. High pressure builds in on Tuesday along with cooler temperatures.
(18Z TAFS) IFR and MVFR conditions will clear from west to east early this afternoon as a cold front sweeps through the region. Wind gusts of 20-30 kt likely, with the highest gusts closer to the coast. 34/JFB (Now through Tuesday) As of noon, surface analysis indicates the cold front currently bisects our area.
/NEW/ /This Afternoon through Tuesday/ The upper low responsible for yesterday's rain and storms has completely exited the region and is currently moving through the southeastern CONUS, as seen on Water Vapor satellite imagery. Lingering cloud cover across our eastern counties thanks to wrap- around moisture will continue to move out of the region on the backside of the low this afternoon, leaving behind sunny skies across North and Central Texas. Sub-freezing temperatures will return to areas across North Texas generally near US-281 and near the Red River. Upper level ridging will build in behind the departing low, and with south to southwest flow returning, will set up the region for a warming trend over the first half of the work week.
A cold front associated with this system will cross South FL overnight into Tuesday morning, with high pressure building in from the north in the wake of the frontal passage. For the rest of today, warm southerly flow ahead of the system is resulting in temps in the low to middle 80s along with S/SW winds gusting to around 25 mph and partly to mostly cloudy skies. SW winds relax a bit overnight to around 10-15 mph and it'll remain mild with lows ranging from the lower 60s around the lake to near 70 close to the Atlantic coast. A much cooler NW flow is expected after the frontal passage tomorrow, with afternoon high temps much closer to normal ranging from the middle 70s to lower 80s.
Expect temperatures to dip below freezing across most of the area overnight, with the favored cool spots and river valleys dropping into the 20s.
Any snowpack remaining for tonight will help cool off the temperatures into the low-20s, otherwise mid to upper-20s can be expected. A weak cold front may move into the northern Panhandles during the day Tuesday with 10-15 mph southwesterly winds ahead of the front.
1248 PM EST Mon Feb 12 2024 Low pressure system will track south of the region today, ushering in rainfall late in the day Monday.
(This evening through Tuesday Night) As the upper level low crosses the Mississippi Valley and departs to the northeast this evening, the broadening of today's tight pressure gradient will allow for winds to become light through the overnight hours. Skies look to begin to clear from west to east shortly after sunset, allowing temperatures to rapidly fall, aided by the calming winds, into the low to mid 30s across the ArkLaTex by daybreak. As ridging begins to build in from the west tomorrow, temperatures will climb into the upper 50s to lower 60s under abundant sunshine and noticeably quieter winds, which will become southwesterly to southerly as the day continues, followed by another chilly night with lows dropping into the 30s areawide, under mostly clear skies broken only by the arrival of some scattered high clouds.