Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1031 AM MDT Fri Aug 2 2024 High pressure keeps hot temperatures and dry conditions through Saturday.
118 PM EDT Fri Aug 2 2024 A mid level low pressure system will rotate east across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley into Saturday, bringing chances for showers and thunderstorms.
In addition to the high MLCAPE, DCAPE values are roughly 1200 J/kg, which is high. Due to the high PWs and intense rainfall rates, isolated locations could see anywhere from 1 to 3 inches of rainfall through this evening, especially with any training thunderstorms. HRRR shows the highest coverage of precip from roughly 21Z to 01Z. The trough axis will remain centered across our area tomorrow. The cold front will likely not pass to our east until the afternoon/evening hours. As we progress later in the day the higher pops should shift east of I-75 as the cold front pushes east.
Moving on to the tropics, the National Hurricane Center is now issuing advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Four located over eastern Cuba.
A ridge of high pressure will be the dominant feature over the Northern Rockies the next couple of days. This ridge will cause extreme heat with most locations reaching the mid 90s to 110 range by Saturday afternoon. A excessive heat warning is in effect for the low valleys of Idaho and Clearwater counties, while several valleys across western Montana are under a heat advisory until Saturday night.
1224 PM CDT Fri Aug 2 2024 (Today through Saturday) 500 mb high pressure centered over the Four Corners area of the United States will be the dominant weather feature over the BRO CWFA through the period. However, some brief and very isolated convection cannot be ruled out over the lower Texas coastal waters, especially today, as PWAT values briefly prevail at around 2 inches offshore. Meanwhile, temperature-wise, the presence of the mid-level ridge and limited cloud cover will combine to produce slightly above normal values for this time of year.
1151 AM CDT Fri Aug 2 2024 - It will be cooler and less humid today with a chance (20-40%) of showers and thunderstorms along and east of the Mississippi River.
(Tonight through Saturday night) Hot and dry conditions will prevail in the short term as a broad mid level ridge, centered over the Rockies, provides subsidence over the South Texas.
105 PM MDT Fri Aug 2 2024 - Large scale ridging persists through the next 7 - 10 days.
WV imagery indicates broad upper level ridging dominating the Intermountain West. Near the surface, a large area of high pressure is drifting east through the Central Plains.
A low pressure system will move through the northern portions of Texas bringing a 20% chance for rain Saturday night for Dawson, Borden, Scurry, northern Martin, northern Howard and northern Mitchell counties. Temperatures will remain in the upper 90s to the low 100s during the daytime and drop into the upper 70s overnight tonight.
The recent streak of hot and sunny summer days for the Florida Keys has come to an end as an unsettled weather pattern moves in ahead of Potential Tropical Cyclone 4 (PTC 4).
622 PM CDT Fri Aug 2 2024 (This evening through Saturday) Water vapor imagery shows an upper level ridge centered over NM this afternoon and a trough over Indiana moving slowly southeast. In the short term, troughing will dominate east of the Mississippi River, and ridging will continue over the West, centering over the Four Corners region. Though the ridge stays in place, it will weaken slightly on Saturday, resulting in decreasing thicknesses across the forecast area. Tomorrow, the decreasing thicknesses should result in cooler high temps, though they will still be above average.
650 PM CDT Fri Aug 2 2024 (This evening through Saturday) Weak cold front sagging into West Central Texas on Saturday, with most of the CAMs showing at least isolated convection across the area by mid/late afternoon. Temperatures behind the boundary will be a couple degrees cooler, staying more in the 100 to 104 range rather than the 103-107 of the last few days.
522 PM MDT Fri Aug 2 2024 - Showers and storms expected this afternoon and evening, mainly over and near the higher terrain. For the higher terrain, slow movement of storms could result in locally heavy rainfall and flash flooding concerns, especially over burn scars and other vulnerable areas. While there is a modest cap out east, we will have some forcing from an embedded wave within the upper ridge. Storms are largely expected to move off of the higher terrain, or form near the Palmer Divide and Raton Mesa, before moving east-southeast. Saturday will be a bit drier, especially over the plains, as the upper high shifts north and east a bit over Colorado. We will have to make it through a few more days of hot conditions before cooler and wetter weather moves into the region.
605 PM CDT Fri Aug 2 2024 (Tonight through Saturday night) Hot and dry conditions will prevail in the short term as a broad mid level ridge, centered over the Rockies, provides subsidence over the South Texas.
High pressure aloft will maintain elevated temperatures and dry conditions through the weekend with a minimal chance of thunderstorms over the Cascades.
622 PM CDT Fri Aug 2 2024 (Tonight through Saturday night) Deep South Texas will remain under the influence of high pressure, which will result in seasonably hot temperatures for early August. Otherwise, Saturday will feature highs ranging from the upper 80s along the Lower Texas beaches to around 100 degrees across the Rio Grande Plains.
Temperatures range from the low 80s near Lake of the Woods to near 90 at various points in the Red River Valley. Continued very quiet tonight as the upper ridge begins to shift off and we get high pressure moving east. Large hail will be the primary threat as storms develop over our area and then move southeast with the cold front.
345 PM MDT Fri Aug 2 2024 - Large scale ridging persists through the next 7 - 10 days.
(Tonight) A cold front has dropped southeast into southern middle TN through the HSV metro into northern MS.
The lower Snake Plain including the Treasure Valley might be in store for some 12-1am MDT showers and storms, though they will likely be weaker than the daytime storms as the environment will be winding down by then.
252 PM PDT Fri Aug 2 2024 High pressure persists over the western US through the weekend maintaining warm and dry weather.
Some of the normally cooler locations will drop into the lower 60s by tomorrow morning. High temps will probably remain just shy of century mark (mid-upper 90s) for most locations with heat indices only a couple degrees warmer due to reduced dew points.
911 PM CDT Fri Aug 2 2024 Surface analysis this evening places a cold front near the edge of the CWA near central Mississippi. Mainly rain-free weather expected for the remainder of the night with lows in the lower 70s.
An upper low/trough will traverse the Ohio valley, eastern Kentucky, and southern Appalachian region today and tonight. Freezing levels will be lower with the upper trough/low moving through so I could see some small hail or gusty winds occurring with the stronger storms.
1208 AM CDT Sat Aug 3 2024 - Slightly cooler and drier today into Sunday.
930 PM PDT Fri Aug 2 2024 Isolated to scattered thunderstorms this afternoon, mainly for the mountains and the high desert with strong gusty winds, lightning, and brief heavy rainfall possible.
With a relatively dry airmass in place, and light winds, temperatures tonight will cool into the lower and mid 70s, with perhaps some mid to upper 60s.
A ridge of high pressure will be the dominant feature over the Northern Rockies the next couple of days. This ridge will cause extreme heat with most locations reaching the mid 90s to 110 range by Saturday afternoon. A excessive heat warning is in effect for the low valleys of Idaho and Clearwater counties, while several valleys across western Montana are under a heat advisory until Saturday night. The cooler air and cloud cover associated with this disturbance should allow temperatures to be 10 to 15 degrees cooler compared to Saturday's maximum temperatures.
IR currently depicts some increasing upper level clouds spilling over the ridge to the west for points west of the Divide. The high centered to the south will continue to weaken with decreasing convergence aloft as it pushes further south and east over the weekend.
Temperatures range from the low 80s near Lake of the Woods to near 90 at various points in the Red River Valley. Continued very quiet tonight as the upper ridge begins to shift off and we get high pressure moving east. Large hail will be the primary threat as storms develop over our area and then move southeast with the cold front. The severe threat will be pretty short lived as the cold front pushes south of our counties before 05Z on Sunday.
1251 AM CDT Sat Aug 3 2024 (This evening through Saturday) Weak cold front sagging into West Central Texas on Saturday, with most of the CAMs showing at least isolated convection across the area by mid/late afternoon. Temperatures behind the boundary will be a couple degrees cooler, staying more in the 100 to 104 range rather than the 103-107 of the last few days.
1125 PM EDT Fri Aug 2 2024 A series of troughs of low pressure will cross the area through Saturday. A cold front will approach Saturday night and stall over the region on Sunday and Sunday night.
(Today through Sunday afternoon) The seemingly ever-present ridge to the west is in the process of retrograding, and will settle over the Four Corners Region and Great Basin today. Given the ridge's westward shift, decreasing thicknesses allow for a subtle cooling trend today, with temperatures a couple degrees cooler than yesterday across the board. Lows overnight are forecast to fall into the lower to middle 70s for most, with 60s in the mountains and across portions of Lea County.
1201 AM CDT Sat Aug 3 2024 (Tonight through Saturday night) Deep South Texas will remain under the influence of high pressure, which will result in seasonably hot temperatures for early August. Otherwise, Saturday will feature highs ranging from the upper 80s along the Lower Texas beaches to around 100 degrees across the Rio Grande Plains.
In the wake of the passage of a weak cold front this morning, slightly less humid air is gradually filtering into the region from the northwest.
(Today through Sunday) 500 mb high pressure will remain centered over the Four Corners area of the United States and the dominant weather feature over the BRO CWFA through the period. 5 inches, dry weather will result for Deep South Texas, the Rio Grande Valley, and the lower Texas coastal waters. Meanwhile, temperature-wise, the presence of the mid-level ridge and limited cloud cover will combine to produce slightly above normal to above normal values for this time of year.
High temperatures today will be in the low to mid 90s, with heat indices in the triple digits in the far southern row of counties. Lows tonight will be in the low 70s, with highs on Sunday in the low to mid 90s.
204 AM CDT Sat Aug 3 2024 - Slightly cooler and drier today into Sunday.
These showers were along and ahead of a nearly stationary cold front that will continue to sag south through tonight before stalling just south of our CWA. This cold front will bring less oppressive heat conditions to the northern half of the CWA but unfortunately, the heat and humidity will continue across our south.
(Today and tonight) A weak cold front will move into the Big Country this morning, possibly reaching northern portions of the Concho Valley and Heartland by this afternoon. Temperatures will be a bit cooler today, with afternoon highs between 99 and 104 degrees, coolest across southern sections. Lows tonight will be in the low to mid 70s.
/Issued 1253 AM CDT Sat Aug 3 2024/ /Through Sunday Afternoon/ A cold front continues to gradually push southward, currently laying between the I-20 corridor and the Red River. Out of ahead of the front, a prefrontal trough has led to a premature northerly wind shift, however, temperatures and dew points have yet to change. Behind the front, temperatures are 8-10 degrees cooler with dew point temperatures in the mid 60s. /NEW/ /Sunday Night Onward/ A dominant mid level ridge centered over the Rockies will expand east through the Southern Plains and Mississippi Valley at the start of the work week.
1112 PM MDT Fri Aug 2 2024 - Showers and storms expected this afternoon and evening, mainly over and near the higher terrain. For the higher terrain, slow movement of storms could result in locally heavy rainfall and flash flooding concerns, especially over burn scars and other vulnerable areas. While there is a modest cap out east, we will have some forcing from an embedded wave within the upper ridge. Storms are largely expected to move off of the higher terrain, or form near the Palmer Divide and Raton Mesa, before moving east-southeast. Saturday will be a bit drier, especially over the plains, as the upper high shifts north and east a bit over Colorado. We will have to make it through a few more days of hot conditions before cooler and wetter weather moves into the region.
Some of the normally cooler locations will drop into the lower 60s by tomorrow morning.
1229 AM CDT Sat Aug 3 2024 (Tonight) A cold front has dropped southeast into southern middle TN through the HSV metro into northern MS.
1131 PM CDT Fri Aug 2 2024 Surface analysis this evening places a cold front near the edge of the CWA near central Mississippi. Mainly rain-free weather expected for the remainder of the night with lows in the lower 70s.
Upper level troughing influences will slowly shift eastward as day progresses and will continue to support development of isolated/scattered showers and thunderstorms mid morning through afternoon hours today for locations generally just west of and across Cumberland Plateau Region. These dry conditions will be the result of upper level ridging influences continuing to build in from our west as today through Sunday progresses.
204 AM MDT Sat Aug 3 2024 After an extremely warm day, upper ridging still dominates the upper air pattern, keeping conditions warm, with Billings still at 79 degF as of 1 AM. On top of letting temperatures 'only' reach the low 90s, this also brings about some storm potential.
Looks like, as far as the pattern is concerned, the region is caught in a stagnant 500 mb ridge that maintains its position over the southwestern part of the country. Due to the ridge, we maintain a relatively dry (for this time of the year) pattern with PWAT values of around 1. The ridge may stop the rain over the region, but there is still enough moisture in the lower levels, to couple with the 95Â° to 100Â° degree highs over the Victoria Crossroads and Coastal Bend, to push heat indices over the 110Â°F threshold.
1224 AM CDT Sat Aug 3 2024 (Tonight through Saturday night) Hot and dry conditions will prevail in the short term as a broad mid level ridge, centered over the Rockies, provides subsidence over the South Texas.
(Rest of today through Saturday) An upper-level low can be seen on satellite imagery to our north over Indiana and Ohio, and surface observations show a cold front just beginning to enter western TN. Coverage will gradually come to an end after sunset, and the upper-level low will slowly move to the east as the cold front clears the area. Temperatures will be slightly cooler Saturday as highs range from the mid 80s to low 90s. With drier air in place, most will be storm-free, too, but isolated to scattered storms will continue across the Plateau with troughing still in place in this area.
At least the temps are cooler the next few days than our 90s to 100 we had yesterday, although we continue to have some hints of moderate heatrisk in the Portland metro area the next few days. tf High pressure persists over the western US through the weekend maintaining warm and dry weather. High pressure prevails over the western two-thirds of the U. By Sunday, weak upper level troughing will develop offshore.
1209 AM CDT Sat Aug 3 2024 (This evening through Saturday) Water vapor imagery shows an upper level ridge centered over NM this afternoon and a trough over Indiana moving slowly southeast. In the short term, troughing will dominate east of the Mississippi River, and ridging will continue over the West, centering over the Four Corners region. Though the ridge stays in place, it will weaken slightly on Saturday, resulting in decreasing thicknesses across the forecast area. Tomorrow, the decreasing thicknesses should result in cooler high temps, though they will still be above average.
(Today) Drier air continues to filter into the region this morning with temperatures running 10 to 15 degrees cooler than this time yesterday in many areas.
(Now through Sunday) An upper ridge over the plains states will weaken and shift west today as an upper trough digs across the eastern states. A weak boundary associated with this trough will move into the area today. The presence of the trough and associated sfc boundary will bring higher rain chances today, especially during the afternoon with scattered to locally numerous showers and storms. The highest rain chances will be along the I-10 corridor. The boundary stalls over the area on Sunday with the highest rain chances mainly along and east of I-65.
High pressure aloft through the weekend with continued above normal temperatures and dry weather.
602 AM CDT Sat Aug 3 2024 (Today) Drier air continues to filter into the region this morning with temperatures running 10 to 15 degrees cooler than this time yesterday in many areas.
650 AM CDT Sat Aug 3 2024 (Today and tonight) A weak cold front will move into the Big Country this morning, possibly reaching northern portions of the Concho Valley and Heartland by this afternoon. Temperatures will be a bit cooler today, with afternoon highs between 99 and 104 degrees, coolest across southern sections. Lows tonight will be in the low to mid 70s.
An upper trough presently extends from the E Great Lakes to the FL Panhandle. At the surface, a weak cold front is entering the NW corner of the state, with a pre-frontal trough cutting across Central GA. Showers and thunderstorms are forecast to redevelop by early afternoon ahead of the sagging cold front, with the HRRR placing convection roughly from Crawfordville to near Columbus. The upper trough has knocked thicknesses down across the area, and forecast high temperatures have followed suit. The cold front will become quasi-stationary by Sunday across N Central GA, with a gradient of PoPs from NW to SE (less than 10 percent in the extreme NW to near 80 percent in the extreme SE).
932 AM EDT Sat Aug 3 2024 A mid level low pressure system will rotate east into the upper Ohio Valley and eastern Tennessee Valley today, bringing chances for showers and thunderstorms. Drier weather will move into the area tonight into Sunday as weak high pressure builds south into the region.
This along with some stronger winds on the back side of the H3 trough is causing the upper trough to hang(stand/stall) today into Sunday before becoming progressive. The upper trough will cut off an upper low that swings back to the west while the trough kicks out quickly leaving the tropical system "stranded" for the first part of the new week. Locally, Sunday will be quite dry as well with only several sh/ts around and hot again as the outside envelope of subsident air from the tropical system to the east and the compression from the SW CONUS high ridging over the area doubles down on our area.
626 AM CDT Sat Aug 3 2024 - Slightly cooler and drier today into Sunday.
This fog should quickly dissipate after sunrise, with high pressure promoting a mostly clear sky through the remainder of the day. A slightly "cooler and drier" post- frontal air mass will help to make it feel a bit more comfortable this afternoon (with dewpoints in the upper 60s/lower 70s) and highs peaking in the upper 80s to lower 90s.
638 AM EDT Sat Aug 3 2024 Periodic showers and thunderstorms continue today with a slow moving trough of low pressure.
617 AM CDT Sat Aug 3 2024 (Today through Sunday) 500 mb high pressure will remain centered over the Four Corners area of the United States and the dominant weather feature over the BRO CWFA through the period. 5 inches, dry weather will result for Deep South Texas, the Rio Grande Valley, and the lower Texas coastal waters. Meanwhile, temperature-wise, the presence of the mid-level ridge and limited cloud cover will combine to produce slightly above normal to above normal values for this time of year.
637 AM CDT Sat Aug 3 2024 (Today through Sunday afternoon) The seemingly ever-present ridge to the west is in the process of retrograding, and will settle over the Four Corners Region and Great Basin today. Given the ridge's westward shift, decreasing thicknesses allow for a subtle cooling trend today, with temperatures a couple degrees cooler than yesterday across the board. Lows overnight are forecast to fall into the lower to middle 70s for most, with 60s in the mountains and across portions of Lea County.
After a hot weekend, high temperatures will be trending cooler but still above normal for early August. Some drier air will move into the region this weekend that will keep min RHs in the upper teens to lower twenties in the lower locations and thirties in the higher elevations.
Surface dewpoints will remain elevated, especially in the morning before deeper mixing begins to dry things out, so there may still be some shallow convection developing along the higher terrain through the afternoon hours, but overall expectation today is for limited storm coverage and generally weak storm behavior. Meanwhile, temperatures will be on the rise as high pressure strengthens over the Four Corners.
pdf High pressure will remain centered to the east Today, with surface ridging extending west across forecast area.
High pressure overhead will allow widespread temperatures to rise into the mid to upper 90s, although temperatures won't be quite as warm as yesterday's as the ridge axis shifts slightly east and increased cloud cover suppresses daytime heating a bit. Expect a 5 to 10 degree drop in daytime highs tomorrow as this system flattens the ridge.
This is due to the drier airmass behind the cold front that moved through yesterday.
This will keep the Atlantic ridge displaced south across our area, resulting in light breezes that will likely trend variable at times. After a weekend of likely subdued high temperatures, expect highs to push back into the lower 90s with dew points lingering in the mid to upper 70s.
- A change in the upper level pattern brings a cooler, wetter pattern mid to late week, with appreciable chances of precipitation across the region. Upper level ridging remains in place across the western United States. At the surface, a low pressure system is located over eastern North Dakota, with a cold front trailing through western South Dakota. Another low pressure system is expected to form off the lee of the Rockies tomorrow, increasing the wind potential across portions of western Nebraska and the Sandhills. Fairly low relative humidity values are expected across most of the region tomorrow afternoon, with the lowest relative humidity values expected across northwestern Nebraska. The low is expected to track through South Dakota, with another surface boundary potentially being the focus for showers and thunderstorms across portions of northern Nebraska.
While a tropical system in the eastern Gulf is not likely to impact our area, it could aid in reinforcing the hot and dry pattern, with dry flow on the backside and enhanced ridging aloft.
It will also be noticeably cooler on Sunday with highs 10 to 20 below todayâs highs. If widespread rains fall in northwest Montana on Sunday, then gusty northerly winds may develop from the Mission Valley into the Missoula valley during the afternoon due to a rain induced meso high pressure area.