Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
An upper level high slowly trudging eastward across the southern tier States and Gulf will usher in a continental air mass. High pressure off the Mid- Atlantic coastline will continue to move eastward and merge with a stronger high centered near the Azores.
205 AM EDT Thu Jun 5 2025 Low pressure will track into the Carolinas today bringing clouds and a few rain showers to the area. Areas of light rain will move into portions of northern North Carolina and southern Virginia ahead of the low, but overall coverage of rain looks spotty at best. Rain chance remain through the afternoon across southern Virginia and North Carolina, with little to no rain along or west of the Blue Ridge. Around the same time, a cold front approaches the area from the Ohio Valley.
A trough of low pressure surface and aloft over the Florida peninsula continues to produce scattered showers and thunderstorms over the coastal waters early this morning. As the trough lifts away from the region, deep layer moisture will decrease.
The cold front responsible for forcing last night's thunderstorms currently splits Missouri and Illinois and extends from about Joplin to Chicago. Forcing from the system's parent mid-level trough and the low-level jet have kept precipitation going, but coverage of showers and thunderstorms have decreased through the early afternoon as influence from these features has waned through the day. Otherwise, Thursday will be drier and a few degrees warmer (mid-70s to low-80s) for most locations than what we've seen today. In any case, southeast Missouri has the highest chance at seeing severe weather on Friday with damaging winds as the primary threat.
At the same time the ridge to our southwest is expected to start to build into the region which could slightly negate the moisture increase. With that far less impressed with the rain chances tomorrow and it could be even less coverage than today given the building ridge and rising hghts. That also will lead to a warm day and highs may be a degree or two warmer in many areas tomorrow. Heading into Friday the same questions remain however the ridge will be firmly entrenched into the area and h5 temps may be almost 2 degrees warmer. Just like Thursday the lack of convection and cloud cover will likely lead to slightly warmer temps again and there could be a few mid 90s.
Morning satellite observations from GOES East highlight a weak, lingering low pressure system directing high altitude cloud cover across the Florida Keys. High pressure off the Mid- Atlantic coastline will continue to move eastward and merge with a stronger high centered near the Azores.
405 AM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025 A typical summer diurnal pattern unfolds through the period as an upper ridge builds over the northern Gulf and Deep South, with a series of perturbations passing over our region along the northern periphery of the ridge in a mostly west-northwesterly mid/upper level flow. Meanwhile, a low-level ridge will persist from the Atlantic across the Gulf, maintaining light southwesterly winds across our area. High temperatures Friday will be warmer, and should range from 88 to 93 degrees, with apparent temperatures (heat indices) in upper 90s to lower 100s.
1021 AM EDT Thu Jun 5 2025 Low pressure will track into the Carolinas today bringing clouds and a few rain showers to the area. Areas of light rain will move into portions of northern North Carolina and southern Virginia ahead of the low, but overall coverage of rain looks spotty at best. Rain chance remain through the afternoon across southern Virginia and North Carolina, with little to no rain along or west of the Blue Ridge.
The latest surface analysis is showing the cold front now lies from SLO to FAM. We will see some increase (30-40% chance) in showers and thunderstorms across central and southeast Missouri as the low level jet kicks in late tonight. Britt The pattern still looks active through the weekend with the LREF showing a pair of troughs moving across the area.
While the region is currently calm this morning, a disturbance approaching from the northwest will look to be partially deflected by the upper level ridge, but will still be able to cause some isolated convection across the area today with the influence of the increasingly moist and unstable atmosphere. High temperatures will be seasonably warm topping out in the low 90s. The upper level ridge will move further east as the frontal boundary continues tracking from the west, draping through the whole of interior of CONUS pushing into mid-south.
803 AM EDT Thu Jun 5 2025 A trough of low pressure surface and aloft over the Florida peninsula continues to produce scattered showers and thunderstorms over the coastal waters early this morning. As the trough lifts away from the region, deep layer moisture will decrease.
Elongated troughing stretching from the eastern Pacific through southern California into southern Nevada and northwest Arizona will allow for vorticity advection into the region today. Showers and thunderstorms will move off the higher terrain, tending to move from west to east with the upper-level flow.
The positioning of the high will lead to cold air damming in the lee of the Appalachians and this will continuously funnel cooler air into Georgia. The easterly winds driving the cooler air into the state will be noticeable for all. On Wednesday high temperatures should top out in the low to mid 80s (1 to 6 degrees below average). The cold front that pushed through the region over the last 36 hours will remain over Florida as a stationary boundary through Wednesday night.
714 PM EDT Tue Sep 3 2024 Dry and mild conditions will continue through midweek before warmer air builds back in late week.
- Temperatures remain near to a few degrees warmer than normal throughout the week, even while trending slightly cooler in some areas. This system is showing up nicely in water vapor imagery this afternoon near the WA/ID border and visible satellite is also showing some other possible impacts that may arrive as this low moves through. Nocturnal convection should remain active as the low drops into SW Idaho pushing the jet core and main moisture plume into our NW CWA. There looks to be an early round of convection across the north followed by some clearing then another round of stronger storms in the afternoon as moderate shear/instability and a drooping cold front across WY border providing some focus.
Low amplitude ridging will move across the state this afternoon, leading to more above average temperatures. The main bulk of regional showers and storms will form this afternoon over the higher terrain across portions of southern Montana and northern Wyoming. The cold front will cross the state tonight and lead to cooler temperatures on Wednesday. The parent trough will cross the state on Wednesday and there should be enough forcing to spark some isolated showers through the day, even with the split flow. The trough will move off to the east Wednesday evening, placing western and central North Dakota under cyclonic flow aloft.
There is the potential for some light showers this evening as an inverted trough moves through the Mid State. As low level ridging influences continue to shift northeastward and more pronounced ridging influences develop aloft, dry conditions will continue across our area Wednesday.
754 PM EDT Tue Sep 3 2024 High pressure will build across Pennsylvania today. The high will pass off of the New England coast late in the week with lingering ridging extending westward into Pennsylvania.
A subtle pocket of short wave energy has been left behind across the mid Ohio Valley as a trough lifts off to the northeast out of New England. This results in a weakened, dirty ridge that slowly builds eastward from the Plains.
620 PM CDT Tue Sep 3 2024 (This evening through Wednesday) Midlevel troughing and an associated weak circulation remains centered over the Permian Basin into the Big County early this afternoon, with a broad zone of modest lift still visible on water vapor channel imagery. This combined with easterly flow throughout the lower atmosphere will result in the continuation of scattered to numerous showers and perhaps a few embedded storms over southern portions of the Rolling Plains through late this evening. For now have sided with the cooler end of guidance for highs over the South Plains and Rolling Plains where highs should remain in the upper 70s to near 80, with slightly warmer highs in the low 80s expected across the far southern TX Panhandle.
Additionally, an upper-level trough across the Midwest will allow for sufficient instability to maintain mostly cloudy skies and slight rain chances across northeast Texas and southeast Oklahoma this evening. Rain chances to increase on Wednesday into Wednesday night across mainly north Louisiana and Deep East Texas along the aforementioned frontal boundary as the upper trough to the north digs south and merges with a disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico. Highs on Wednesday are forecast to climb into the mid 80s to near 90 with overnight lows on Wednesday night in the lower 70s.
At this point it looks like the lowest visibilities (under 3 miles) may be on the Caprock in the southern Texas Panhandle. Upper heights will slowly rise on Wednesday as the upper trough slowly moves farther southeast away from our area. Highs should be a tad warmer than today with readings in the lower 80's to the lower 90's.
Will see some clearing from east to west as the inverted trough continues to shift west through the area, and any lingering showers should dissipate shortly after sunset. Gusty southeasterly flow should once again prevent the development of fog tonight, with overnight lows ranging from the lower 60s (east) and upper 60s (west).
High pressure will continue to build over Northern California through midweek, with dry and hot conditions prevailing, especially across our inland areas.
The disorganized upper low that has spurred a lot of recent rainfall will begin to move to the east. Drier air moves in from the north and west allowing portions of southeast New Mexico and the higher terrain to dry out somewhat. Lows continue to stay cooler in the 60s with the mountains reaching into the 50s.
Despite some of the higher totals around the area, there have only been a handful of flooding reports received through the evening, although there was most likely at least some standing or ponding of water in the typical low lying and poor drainage areas. Ridging continues to stay just to our north over the course of the work week.
- Cold front will push through this evening with more seasonable temperatures for the remainder of the week. Regardless, a cold front approaching from the west out of Idaho will tighten the gradient across the CWA and thus, increasing the winds out of the southwest up to 20-30 mph gusts in the more wind prone areas. The front will push east out of the area late in the afternoon as the main trough exits east into the high plains as well. The cooler air aloft will inhibit the storm potential for points west for Wednesday.
546 PM EDT Tue Sep 3 2024 High pressure will build across Pennsylvania today. The high will pass off of the New England coast late in the week with lingering ridging extending westward into Pennsylvania.
528 PM MDT Tue Sep 3 2024 - Critical fire weather conditions through the evening - What, if any, thunderstorm chances exist this evening and Wednesday - More seasonable temperatures expected to finish out the week Latest 500hpa analysis shows upper low spinning into ID chimney region with lead wave moving through central MT/NRN WY area. Broad ridge axis extends from the desert SW to the northeast toward the Great Lakes region. The first big question is will approaching lead 500hpa wave and associated sfc trof/cool front fire any storms later this afternoon into the overnight hours.
Temperatures will remain below normal tomorrow but will be warmer than today, with afternoon highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s.
As the Atlantic Ridge flexes overnight, we should see winds increase here shortly around or after midnight. Taking a look at the surface maps, there is deep layer ridging across the region and though we have moisture, we don't really have organized lift.
High clouds continue to stream in from the west and while this shouldn't have a great impact on overnight temperatures, it may keep us from getting too much cooler. Either way, it's a great night out there with dew points expected to fall off into the low 60s and upper 50s.
630 PM CDT Tue Sep 3 2024 - Warmer temperatures on Wednesday with highs near 90 degrees.
552 PM EDT Tue Sep 3 2024 A warming trend is expected this week with dry conditions under high pressure. Below average temperatures and precipitation chances return this weekend with a cut-off low.
Ridging continues to move east this afternoon in advance of a developing upper low. Lows tonight are only expected to fall into the low to middle 60s as southerly winds continue to increase dew points across the region. Heading into Wednesday, attention turns to the timing of a cold front expected to traverse the area, bringing a chance for showers and thunderstorms.
740 PM EDT Tue Sep 3 2024 A cold front will spread cooler and drier air into the area through midweek. Weak low pressure in the Gulf of Mexico and along the Carolina coast may spread showers into the area late this week into this weekend.
939 PM EDT Tue Sep 3 2024 Dry and mild conditions will continue through midweek before warmer air builds back in late week.
739 PM EDT Tue Sep 3 2024 A large area of high pressure was centered over southern Ontario.
702 PM EDT Tue Sep 3 2024 High pressure will build across Pennsylvania today. The high will pass off of the New England coast late in the week with lingering ridging extending westward into Pennsylvania.
133 AM EDT Wed Sep 4 2024 A warming trend is expected this week with dry conditions under high pressure. Below average temperatures and precipitation chances return this weekend with a cut-off low.
With the warm temperatures Tuesday about 3 degrees above forecast will keep highs on the high side of guidance at CHA, TYS and TRI this afternoon.
339 AM EDT Wed Sep 4 2024 High pressure from the north will provide cooler temperatures for the remainder of the week under decent north to northeasterly flow.
A little more sun today will allow temperatures to climb into the lower 80s across the area (as much as 10 degrees warmer than the record cool high San Angelo saw on Tuesday).
158 AM MDT Wed Sep 4 2024 - Scattered showers and thunderstorms today - More seasonable temperatures expected to finish out the week Scattered, light showers are developing across eastern WY into western SD ahead of approaching upper level trough. These showers should push eastward and increase in coverage as the upper level trough approaches, while not much lightning is expected with this shower activity - some of these showers may cause gusty winds. Trough exits the region by late tonight while ridge rebuilds to our west. Medium range deterministic models in consensus of upper ridge building into the western US by this weekend with a gradual return to warmer temperatures through this weekend.
Arends Upper trof continues to evolve slowly and as of 1830z it is located over central ID and moving to the SE. As positively tilted trof moves eastward, we should see a region of dry slotting push through our SW this evening. Wednesday, the filling trof will drop thru WY and flow will shift to the NW.
Latest 500hpa analysis shows upper low spinning into ID chimney region with lead wave moving through central MT/NRN WY area. Broad ridge axis extends from the desert SW to the northeast toward the Great Lakes region. The first big question is will approaching lead 500hpa wave and associated sfc trof/cool front fire any storms later this afternoon into the overnight hours. However, gusty winds will continue for much of the night, both ahead of and behind a cold front crossing the region.
354 AM CDT Wed Sep 4 2024 - A cold front will bring low chances (30%) for showers and thunderstorms from the afternoon through the overnight period.
303 AM EDT Wed Sep 4 2024 Cooler and drier air remain in place through today.
302 AM EDT Wed Sep 4 2024 A large area of high pressure centered over central New York today will slide east off the New England coastline by tonight.
E/SE flow will continue with high pressure across the area and a weak sea breeze developing in the afternoon near the coast. Highs before the storms will reach into the lower 90s with a few pockets of mid 90s. This with the high moisture in place will bring max heat indices to around 105 with pockets of 108 where those higher temps are.
424 AM EDT Wed Sep 4 2024 A warming trend is expected this week with dry conditions under high pressure. Below average temperatures and precipitation chances return this weekend with a cut-off low. ---------------------------------------------------------------- Mostly sunny skies (aside from some cirrus south of I-70) and seasonable temperatures continue today as a weak upper ridge builds over the region.
Went ahead and trimmed down PoPs to better reflect this trend, with the highest PoPs remaining across the interior for a few more hours. High pressure over the eastern Great Lakes will push east and off the New England coast Wed while also building down the eastern seaboard, bridging the weak trough laying just north of the local waters.
An area of high pressure will wobble around the Southwest through much of the forecast period. As this trough pushes eastward, the ridge will continue to strengthen over the region.
1259 AM EDT Wed Sep 4 2024 A large area of high pressure was centered over southern Ontario.
An anomalously strong ridge of high pressure will build over the region tomorrow, causing temperatures to soar well above average.
- Warmer temperatures on Wednesday with highs near 90 degrees.
However, ceilings remain quite high with very dry air in the lower levels. Low amplitude ridging will move across the state this afternoon, leading to more above average temperatures. The main bulk of regional showers and storms will form this afternoon over the higher terrain across portions of southern Montana and northern Wyoming. The cold front will cross the state tonight and lead to cooler temperatures on Wednesday. The parent trough will cross the state on Wednesday and there should be enough forcing to spark some isolated showers through the day, even with the split flow. The trough will move off to the east Wednesday evening, placing western and central North Dakota under cyclonic flow aloft.
1213 AM CDT Wed Sep 4 2024 (This evening through Wednesday) Midlevel troughing and an associated weak circulation remains centered over the Permian Basin into the Big County early this afternoon, with a broad zone of modest lift still visible on water vapor channel imagery. This combined with easterly flow throughout the lower atmosphere will result in the continuation of scattered to numerous showers and perhaps a few embedded storms over southern portions of the Rolling Plains through late this evening. For now have sided with the cooler end of guidance for highs over the South Plains and Rolling Plains where highs should remain in the upper 70s to near 80, with slightly warmer highs in the low 80s expected across the far southern TX Panhandle.
An upper-level trough returns by mid-week which will bring showers and thunderstorms to the area.
224 AM MDT Wed Sep 4 2024 The upper level troughing to our south will continue moving to the southeast creating upper level flow out of the northwest today. As the troughing moves to the southeast it will put much of Wyoming in favorable diffluent flow and synoptic lift. An upper level trough will be making its way down from Canada advecting in cooler temperatures today and tomorrow. Both days will see temperatures in the low 80s for most. Torgerson Model ensembles suggest high confidence that high pressure aloft will dominate the weather pattern over our region through the extended.
142 AM EDT Wed Sep 4 2024 Dry and mild conditions will continue through midweek before warmer air builds back in late week.
High temperatures will reach the middle to upper 80s in valley areas (lower 80s atop the higher elevations).
215 AM MDT Wed Sep 4 2024 KEY MESSAGES: 1) Cold front this afternoon and evening will bring a few showers and thunderstorms along with gusty north winds.
1046 PM MDT Tue Sep 3 2024 - Scattered showers and thunderstorms tonight through tomorrow - More seasonable temperatures expected to finish out the week Latest 500hpa analysis shows upper low spinning into ID chimney region with lead wave moving through central MT/NRN WY area. Broad ridge axis extends from the desert SW to the northeast toward the Great Lakes region. The first big question is will approaching lead 500hpa wave and associated sfc trof/cool front fire any storms later this afternoon into the overnight hours.
614 AM CDT Wed Sep 4 2024 - Patchy near-surface smoke from distant wildfires is expected today as a cold frontal boundary passes through.
445 AM MDT Wed Sep 4 2024 - Scattered showers and thunderstorms today - More seasonable temperatures expected to finish out the week Scattered, light showers are developing across eastern WY into western SD ahead of approaching upper level trough. These showers should push eastward and increase in coverage as the upper level trough approaches, while not much lightning is expected with this shower activity - some of these showers may cause gusty winds. Trough exits the region by late tonight while ridge rebuilds to our west. Medium range deterministic models in consensus of upper ridge building into the western US by this weekend with a gradual return to warmer temperatures through this weekend.
628 AM CDT Wed Sep 4 2024 (Today through Thursday) The highest rainfall chances and greatest concerns for flooding across South-Central Texas have diminished into and during early this morning as the atmosphere has become overworked after the active weather that occurred during yesterday into yesterday evening. Thursday looks to trend a tad warmer, especially out west, underneath partly cloudy skies. Overnight lows remain steady from the upper 60s across the Hill Country to the low to mid 70s elsewhere.
624 AM EDT Wed Sep 4 2024 A large area of high pressure centered over central New York today will slide east off the New England coastline by tonight.
(Now through Thursday) A wet pattern sets up today through the end of the work week as southerly flow around a weak area of low pressure in the northwest Gulf brings deep layer moisture into the area.
907 AM EDT Wed Sep 4 2024 High pressure slowly shifts east toward New England through Thursday.
Latest surface analysis still had a stalled boundary just south of our CWA and an inverted trough that appears to have stalled nearly along the Mississippi river. There was a pool of moisture with lower 70F dew points associated with the inverted trough but drier air with low to mid 60F dew points was noted back over our east Mississippi zones.
PoPs 50-70%, with the highest coverage over the interior, where models show a sea breeze collision occurring late this afternoon. Highs today are forecast to reach the lower 90s, with muggy conditions leading to heat indices around 103-106 degrees.
636 AM EDT Wed Sep 4 2024 High pressure from the north will provide cooler temperatures for the remainder of the week under decent north to northeasterly flow.
Come Thursday the high pressure that was dominate over the region will move out allowing for the passage of a trough. This trough will push a weak cold front across the panhandles during the afternoon hours. The passage of the front will allow cooler air to continue to move across the panhandles keep temperatures around to below average.
946 AM EDT Wed Sep 4 2024 A large area of high pressure centered over central New York today will slide east off the New England coastline by tonight.