Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Warmer temperatures a few degrees above average today and Wednesday. Cooler temperatures expected towards the end of the week. Current temperatures are running near where they were this time yesterday across the valleys, around 15 to 20 degrees below yesterday's values along the Big Sur coast, and around 5 to 10 degrees warmer than yesterday in the higher elevations. Inland temps will generally be around 5-10 degrees above normal as a ridge of high pressure develops over the region. These warmer temperatures last through Wednesday, and will bring moderate HeatRisk to just a few interior portions of the CWA, otherwise HeatRisk is widely minor.
Upper level ridging remains centered across the central CONUS.
1214 PM PDT Tue Aug 27 2024 A cold front Tuesday will produce scattered showers across the northern mountains and dry and gusty west winds for the Basin.
An Atlantic ridge extends into the Southeastern United States. The Keys are on the southern side of this ridge which is resulting in marine platforms observing mainly northeast to east breezes of 10 to 15 knots with Island Chain communities observing mainly east breezes of 10 to 15 mph. Overall, the Atlantic ridge with an extension of this ridge into the southeastern United States is expected to dominate the weather across the Keys. Moisture undulations will move along the southern periphery of this ridge resulting in wetter periods and drier periods for the Keys.
Temperatures have been on the cooler side this afternoon, but dewpoints across the far southern FA are in the low 60s.
- Cooler temps return Wednesday, rain chances at times through the end of the week. PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: A ridge of high pressure will continue to slide eastward across the forecast area through the period. A cold front will drift through this evening posing the possibility of another round of showers/storms. However, dewpoint values will still be higher, so it will feel cooler, but it will not be a substantial cool down just yet. Pattern Synopsis and Forecast: Cooler and less humid conditions move in Wednesday night as the upper level flow flattens out behind the departing cold front and associated height falls.
351 PM EDT Tue Aug 27 2024 After a warm and sunny afternoon, a cold front will bring a round of showers and isolated thunder tonight into Wednesday.
Ridge becomes centered over the region with increasing hot temperatures and dry weather. Discussion: The 594 dam upper-level 500mb ridge will become centered over the Tennessee Valley on Wednesday with subsidence aiding about a 1 degC increase in 850mb temperatures. This will result in clear sky conditions with Wednesday's max temperatures 2 to 4 degF warmer than on Tuesday. Date Chattanooga Knoxville Tri-Cities Oak Ridge 08-28 100(1990) 98(1936) 94(1953) 98(1995) (Wednesday night through next Tuesday) Key Messages: 1.
A ridge is currently setting up over the Golden State, bringing temperatures up to near normal for this time of year. While this ridge will flatten out today due to a low pressure system north of us moving eastward, tomorrow it will strengthen further. With this ridge, probabilities of triple digit temperatures have returned.
(Through Wednesday) Upper-level ridging remains in place through Wednesday with a very similar pattern to today.
208 PM MDT Tue Aug 27 2024 KEY MESSAGES: - Weather pattern changes will prevail through the next few days, with a cold front and low pressure system from the northwest overnight tonight.
1238 PM CDT Tue Aug 27 2024 - It will be cooler today, but the heat index may push close to 100 degrees in far southeast NE and southwest IA.
TFJ KEY MESSAGES: - Weather pattern changes will prevail through the next few days, with warm conditions from the south today, followed by a cold front and low pressure system from the northwest overnight tonight. Upstream, a strong low pressure system over British Columbia will strengthen a big more and expand in area as it moves southeastward over our northern Rockies region tonight through Wednesday. Most model ensemble data keeps this system relatively dry for us, as most of the expected rain showers will be confined to the higher elevations of western and central Montana. Of greater impact will be the gusty and shifting winds associated with the approaching cold front.
/Issued 111 PM CDT Tue Aug 27 2024/ /Through Wednesday afternoon/ Mid-day satellite imagery show an upper low centered to our southwest near the Texas Hill Country region. The good news is that the presence of clouds is helping keeping the high temperatures closer to seasonal averages generally in the low to mid 90s. The upper low is forecast to shift slightly to the west on Wednesday, but still close enough to trigger another round of showers and storms. Most of the high-resolution guidance continues to suggest some of this activity will expand farther north into North Texas, but coverage should remain fairly isolated-scattered (20-30%).
/44/ (Tuesday through Wednesday) Fair to partly cloudy this morning with lows nearing a landing point with slightly higher dew points in the low 70s for an average. Just a few spots from Magnolia to Ruston and Peason Ridge in Toledo Bend Country. And the good news is still that cooler highs are going to start showing up even by tomorrow for our southern tier of Counties and Parishes.
High pressure is currently still dominating the area which is causing these dry conditions as well as the warmer temperatures coming into the area getting into the mid 90s. A troughing feature off the east coast is currently dipping into southeast Georgia which is bringing moisture to this area.
828 AM PDT Tue Aug 27 2024 Warmer temperatures a few degrees above average today and Wednesday. Cooler temperatures expected towards the end of the week. Current temperatures are running near where they were this time yesterday across the valleys, around 15 to 20 degrees below yesterday's values along the Big Sur coast, and around 5 to 10 degrees warmer than yesterday in the higher elevations. Inland temps will generally be around 5-10 degrees above normal as a ridge of high pressure develops over the region. These warmer temperatures last through Wednesday, and will bring moderate HeatRisk to just a few interior portions of the CWA, otherwise HeatRisk is widely minor.
(Tonight through Wednesday night) Regional radar imagery continues to light up with convection swirling around the upper low currently centered over Menard County in the SJT CWA. The upper low should get absorbed into the long wave flow by Wednesday, with much lower chances at showers and storms expected.
154 PM EDT Tue Aug 27 2024 High pressure will extend across the region through much of this week. A few showers are blossoming along the immediate sea breeze front this afternoon, with ridging/dry air aloft preventing significant strengthening. Tonight: Overall, it should be a quiet night with high pressure in control.
This is due to a mid to upper level low that is slowly meandering over Texas combining with above normal moisture and the sea breeze coming ashore. A similar story can be expected tomorrow with the mid to upper level low remaining over Texas. Expect temperatures to remain in the lower to upper 90s both days with heat indices hovering around 105-109 degrees.
Dry and quiet weather conditions will continue for the remainder of today behind the cold frontal passage last night. With the clear skies overnight, some areas above the thermal belt and where the wind gusts aren't as strong should see slightly cooler temperatures. The only update to the short term forecast is that the dry cold front will sweep through the area Wednesday, bringing gusty winds down to the surface as a tightening pressure gradient occurs due to cyclogenesis.
Then, it'll be another mild night tonight with lows mostly in the lower 70s. (Wednesday through Tuesday) The synoptic scale pattern will be mostly stable the next few days with an upper level high centered to the northeast of the area, but still close enough to keep temperatures slightly above normal for this time of year. A weak upper level low spinning over Texas will keep low end PoPs (10-15%) across southeast OK Wed to Thurs, mainly during the afternoon.
A cold front remains on track to bring gusty southwest-west winds (25-35 mph) this afternoon and evening across the Northern Rockies. Model guidance has shifted the heaviest axis of precipitation associated with a closed low moving across Alberta further west.
(This evening through Wednesday Night) Upper-level ridging has finally retrograded enough to allow for the region to come back under the influence of the Gulf of Mexico.
1218 PM CDT Tue Aug 27 2024 (Today through Wednesday night) High pressure will continue to be given the boot as it's displaced by a pair of upper level troughs traversing the northern Plains.
Scattered showers in w-central ID (KMYL) with a cold front this evening. Blowing dust may accompany cold front in the Treasure Valley (KONO-KMUO). Cold front this afternoon/evening will shift winds to NW 10-25 kt with 25-45 kt gusts. A cold front arrives between Wed/01Z and Wed/03Z, shifting winds to northwest 12-18 kt with gusts to 25-30kt. Blowing dust may accompany the cold front, especially when it arrives.
In the upper levels, ridging extends from the Gulf of Mexico northwards into the Great Lakes region. Closer to the surface, high pressure is centered to the north of the area across the Southern Appalachians into the Mid-Atlantic region. Easterly flow is rotating around the southern periphery of this high.
Warmer temperatures a few degrees above average today and Wednesday. Cooler temperatures expected towards the end of the week. Warmer temperatures continue into the day tomorrow as the upper level ridge persists. Low temperatures range from the mid 50s to the lower 60s across the valleys, up to the lower 70s in the thermal belts.
As a big strong ridge remains in place directly overhead, we can expect more of the same for Wednesday.
/NEW/ /Through Wednesday afternoon/ Mid-day satellite imagery show an upper low centered to our southwest near the Texas Hill Country region. The good news is that the presence of clouds is helping keeping the high temperatures closer to seasonal averages generally in the low to mid 90s. The upper low is forecast to shift slightly to the west on Wednesday, but still close enough to trigger another round of showers and storms. Most of the high-resolution guidance continues to suggest some of this activity will expand farther north into North Texas, but coverage should remain fairly isolated-scattered (20-30%).
1231 PM CDT Tue Aug 27 2024 (Today through Wednesday Night) The center of the H500 ridge will meander toward the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys through Wednesday with sfc ridging remaining across the SE US.
Otherwise, remains clear and hot this afternoon across the region and ridging remains the predominant impact on our weather pattern. Discussion: The warming trend will continue this afternoon as an anomalous 596dam H5 ridge shifts atop the region.
Weak southerly to southeasterly mid to upper level flow this afternoon between broad eastern Pacific troughiness and a weak high over New Mexico.
(Now through Wednesday) An upper level ridge will continue across the area through the period. The deep layer ridging will maintain above normal temps in the mid and upper 90s across interior areas. Moisture levels will continue to increase as a southeasterly flow develops as high pressure builds over the western Atlantic.
218 PM MDT Tue Aug 27 2024 - Warming up on Wednesday, with better shower and thunderstorm coverage across the higher terrain. satellite imagery shows cumulus cloud development across much of the higher terrain early this afternoon. Confidence in this area seeing storms is on the lower side. An upper low is forecast to move into the Northern Rockies with flat high pressure across Colorado. This will lead to shower and thunderstorm activity developing by early afternoon, mainly across the higher terrain.
(This evening through Wednesday Night) Per satellite imagery, upper level low continues to spin across Central TX this afternoon, but continues to influence conditions across SE TX, bringing weak disturbances aloft.
103 PM CDT Tue Aug 27 2024 (Tonight through Wednesday night) Water vapor imagery this morning reveals an upper level low churning along the Texas coast. Several streams of vorticity will wrap around the low over the next few days, providing continued rain chances across the region. The upper low will drift slightly north but will remain close enough to influence the area. High temps today will top out in the upper 80s along the coast to the mid 90s out west as cloud cover and rain chances keep us "cooler".
Aloft, the ridge of high pressure remains centered near the Ohio and Mississippi River Valleys. Relative humidity will remain low as dry air remains locked in place across the Lower Mississippi Valley.
224 PM MDT Tue Aug 27 2024 Challenging wind forecast for late tonight into Wednesday as models differ with wind speed depictions with a cold front progged to move into the western/central zones late tonight. HREF had highest strong wind probabilities over the high terrain for tonight and Wednesday. Another cold front crosses the area Wed. night as an upper low moves E through N.
Key Messages: - Persistent onshore flow with the highest daytime rain and lightning storm chances focused inland - Highs in the low 90s combine with higher humidity to produce peak heat index values 100-106 degrees each afternoon Now-Tonight. The highest rain chances will be focused well inland with most of the marine shower activity dissipating before it reaches the coast.
/NEW/ /Through Wednesday/ An upper low over the Hill Country helped reduce daytime temperatures while initiating showers and storms across much of the region this afternoon. The aforementioned low will become less defined on Wednesday with a deepening coastal trough competing for convective dominance. But North and Central Texas will remain within the onshore flow regime along the western periphery of a ridge over the Southeast U.
728 PM EDT Tue Aug 27 2024 (Through Wednesday) Upper-level ridging remains in place through Wednesday with a very similar pattern to today.
we took out the low Pops for central zones tomorrow as it just looks to dry. BT Challenging wind forecast for late tonight into Wednesday as models differ with wind speed depictions with a cold front progged to move into the western/central zones late tonight. HREF had highest strong wind probabilities over the high terrain for tonight and Wednesday. Another cold front crosses the area Wed. night as an upper low moves E through N.
THe sea breeze once again will not make it too far inland, likely just to the I-75 corridor, with the highest during the late afternoon/early evening.
946 PM EDT Tue Aug 27 2024 Persistent but light onshore (east) flow will keep min temps above normal, holding in the lower 80s along the immediate coast and mid to upper 70s inland.
This will lead to scattered showers and thunderstorms mainly over the higher terrain.
708 PM CDT Tue Aug 27 2024 (Tonight through Wednesday night) Regional radar imagery continues to light up with convection swirling around the upper low currently centered over Menard County in the SJT CWA. The upper low should get absorbed into the long wave flow by Wednesday, with much lower chances at showers and storms expected.
511 PM MDT Tue Aug 27 2024 - Warming up on Wednesday, with better shower and thunderstorm coverage across the higher terrain. satellite imagery shows cumulus cloud development across much of the higher terrain early this afternoon. Confidence in this area seeing storms is on the lower side. An upper low is forecast to move into the Northern Rockies with flat high pressure across Colorado. This will lead to shower and thunderstorm activity developing by early afternoon, mainly across the higher terrain.
601 PM CDT Tue Aug 27 2024 (This evening through Wednesday Night) Per satellite imagery, upper level low continues to spin across Central TX this afternoon, but continues to influence conditions across SE TX, bringing weak disturbances aloft.
/26/ (This evening through Wednesday Night) Upper-level ridging has finally retrograded enough to allow for the region to come back under the influence of the Gulf of Mexico.
A trough will continue to move through the region today with lingering showers and convergence zone activity through the evening. High pressure will start to build on Wednesday, leading to a warm and drying trend into the weekend.
- Cooler Wednesday but very warm and humid conditions returning for Thu afternoon over south central WI.
651 PM CDT Tue Aug 27 2024 (This evening through Wednesday Night) Upper-level ridging has finally retrograded enough to allow for the region to come back under the influence of the Gulf of Mexico.
930 PM CDT Tue Aug 27 2024 Outflow boundaries, in combination with forcing from the upper level low, produced scattered showers and storms, late this afternoon and into the early evening along the Rio Grande and in the San Antonio metro area. (Tonight through Wednesday night) Regional radar imagery continues to light up with convection swirling around the upper low currently centered over Menard County in the SJT CWA. The upper low should get absorbed into the long wave flow by Wednesday, with much lower chances at showers and storms expected.
- Cooler Wednesday but very warm and humid conditions returning for Thu afternoon over south central Wisconsin.
1014 PM EDT Tue Aug 27 2024 A cold front will slowly press southwards throughout our region later tonight.
- Next Cold front arrives with next best chance for thunderstorms Thursday.
The morning wave will work to drive a weak cold front southward through the region. The afternoon wave, which will be stronger and pull with it more moisture, will run along the cold front increasing the risk for convection and severe weather. The big question is how far south will the cold front be able to push as it will be undercutting what is left of the ridge. Where the front is located when the wave reaches the region will be crucial to where the highest risk for storms is. This will be important, not only for thunderstorm development, but also the high temperatures today. Latest CAM solutions are wanting to develop afternoon convection along the aforementioned cold front.
148 AM EDT Wed Aug 28 2024 A cold front will bring showers and isolated thunderstorms overnight.
Then, it'll be another mild night tonight with lows mostly in the lower 70s.
100 AM MDT Wed Aug 28 2024 - Cold front on Thursday will bring slightly cooler temperatures and precipitation chances.
Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms each afternoon, mainly over the higher terrain.
413 AM EDT Wed Aug 28 2024 *Surge of mid summer heat and humidity will fuel severe t-storm risk later today into tonight *Unsettled and humid pattern with periods of locally heavy rain possible into Labor Day weekend *Trending seasonably cooler and drier (less humid) to begin the first week of September CPA remains at risk for one or more corridors of potentially robust, MCS type convective development later today. SPC kept the outlook virtually unchanged from day 2 with the highest severe probs located over south central PA near and to the south of I-80. Anticipated cloud cover combined with an east to southeast wind (on the south side of high pressure over Nova Scotia) should make for a relatively cooler - but quite humid - day on Thursday.
(Today through Thursday afternoon) A gradual moistening trend will continue today as a 850-700 mb ridge becomes positioned to our east.
(Tonight through Thursday night) Key Message: - Potential for tropical funnel clouds and waterspouts today - Medium to high (50-65%) chance of showers and thunderstorms today Although the mid-level low from earlier in the week is now to our north over Central Texas, another mid-level low is expected to develop over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico and cause inverted troughing over the Texas Coast today into the late week. Troughing, in addition to surface heating, the seabreeze, and PWATs nearing 2. Typical summer night lows tonight ranging from the mid 70s inland to the lower 80s along the coast.
Ridge becomes centered over the region with increasing hot temperatures and dry weather. Discussion: The 594 dam upper-level 500mb ridge will become centered over the Tennessee Valley on Wednesday with subsidence aiding about a 1 degC increase in 850mb temperatures.
A low pressure system passing north of the area will keep us under southwesterly flow aloft. The better chances for showers will be in the San Juans, but a stray shower could get into the highway 160 corridor. Northwest Colorado will be windy this afternoon due to the low pressure to our north. Tomorrow the low pressure sends another push of dry air into the region and shifts the flow to northwesterly. High pressure builds in later this week behind the departing trough. The biggest forecast challenge through the period is if and when the high pressure center advects eastward enough to tap into better moisture return.
(Today through Thursday night) A quiet day today as we remain under the influence of weak high pressure.
Max temperatures will continue to run in the low to mid 90s with peak heat indices 103 to 110 (highest values over SW Florida) both and Thursday afternoon, so we will likely continue to flirt with heat advisory criteria over at least the southern half of the area.
Temperatures have been on the cooler side this afternoon, but dewpoints across the far southern FA are in the low 60s. 500mb ridging will move in Wednesday morning, with the next much stronger 500mb system following for Wednesday night into Thursday. Storms should fire along the frontal boundary to the west late in the afternoon or early evening, then the low level jet cranks up during the mid to late evening (50 to 60 knots) into this same area, eventually focusing more into this FA and southern Manitoba. Clearing skies and light winds as high pressure continues to build into the region may support patchy/shallow fog across parts of eastern ND and northwest MN. Southeast winds increase as low pressure deepens Wednesday and by the afternoon higher gusts around 25kt are expected (chance for even higher gusts to 30kt in ND).
1033 PM MDT Tue Aug 27 2024 - Cold front on Thursday will bring slightly cooler temperatures and precipitation chances.
Cooler Today: A drier albeit still moist airmass with dewpoint temperatures in the 60s settles into the Upper Mississippi River Valley today. The frontal passage alleviated the higher temperatures with heat indices below 90 degrees area wide. Setup For Thursday Storm Potential: The upper level low responsible for storm development on Thursday can be seen traversing the Rocky Mountain West along the International border on early morning water vapor imagery. Expect this closed low to advect zonally before lifting through southern Manitoba on Thursday. The northerly advection of the low lifts a filament of increased low level theta e through the Upper Mississippi River Valley concurrent with an appendage/perturbation and ascent from an upper level jet streak.
- A stronger cold front moves through on Thursday bringing the potential for additional showers and thunderstorms through the day.
Another warm night tonight with lows in the low to mid 70s.
Persistent but light onshore (east) flow will keep min temps above normal, holding in the lower 80s along the immediate coast and mid to upper 70s inland.
Afternoon highs across our north will top out again much warmer than normal near 100F. The moisture increase will help hold morning lows up a degree or two with most sites bottoming out in the lower 70s which is slightly warmer than normal. /22/ We will see an increasingly moist regime in the extended term as upper ridging shifts east, allowing Gulf moisture to infiltrate the region.
Ridge becomes centered over the region with increasing hot temperatures and continued dry weather. Discussion: Some additional patchy fog near rivers and sheltered valleys this morning, otherwise, the warming trend continues this afternoon as a 594dam H5 ridge axis shifts directly atop the region.