Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
(Today and tonight) As of 2 AM CDT, a shallow surface cold front is across the central Texas Panhandle and is expected to continue to push southward through the forecast area this morning. The upper closed low continues to wobble over the Northern Plains today with another vort lobe ejecting around the southern periphery of the low.
The upper level ridge over the forecast area will flatten out and this will allow a short wave to push a surface "cold" front into the forecast area during the evening hours and through it during the overnight. Therefore, the severe weather and excessive rainfall potential will be on the low end.
This will change by late this afternoon and mainly this evening as a line of convection fires along/ahead of a SE moving cold front.
A low approaching the mid Missouri Valley will set up a trough axis northwest into southwestern MN and eastern SD this afternoon. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms will develop after 20Z near the trough axis and may form clusters into tonight. Thunderstorms are possible farther north and east late this afternoon, but low level convergence is better near the trough axis which is where the best coverage will be. The low will push east overnight and convection should wane gradually through tonight and into early Thursday.
- Severe weather is possible along and south of a Quincy to Danville line this afternoon and evening: however, the highest probabilities for damaging winds, very large hail, and tornadoes will be focused further south from the Ozarks into the lower Ohio River Valley.
1256 AM CDT Wed May 8 2024 Currently a cold front has stalled just northeast of our area. Overnight low temperatures will be in the the low to mid 70s and winds to be southerly at 5 to 10 mph.
Otherwise, the sprawling parent upper level low will move little into tomorrow and induce a weak surface reflection/inverted trough into western Iowa during peak heating, which will also be aided by a lobe of the aforementioned increase in mid level kinematic forcing. Going into the early evening, the stronger mean wind should subside as the upper low is finally on the move and approaches leading to slower cell movement.
A low pressure system to our east will bring a 15-40 percent chance of showers to the higher elevations of SW Idaho on Wednesday. Isolated convective showers are moving through much of southwest Idaho and southeast Oregon, featuring occasional mixed precipitation types down to the valley floor in some of the lower elevations. A backdoor cold front from the northern Rockies will lead to a somewhat meteorologically unusual pattern on Wednesday, with increasing northeasterly flow across the mountains of central Idaho bringing a modest increase in precipitation chances during the morning.
1225 AM CDT Wed May 8 2024 (This evening through Wednesday night) Today the main upper trough has ejected eastward and zonal flow has taken its place across the region. The southern half will see highs in the lower 80's, and the northern zones will see highs drop to the 70's.
-Snow showers in the higher Black Hills with some accumulation possible this morning. -Warmer and drier for the weekend. The large upper low, currently centered over southwestern North Dakota, will sag southward across the forecast area today. The highest PoPs today will be to the west of the upper low, over northeastern Wyoming, with slightly lower PoPs toward central SD.
Low pressure east of the Continental Divide is sending wraparound moisture over the Divide and into western Montana this morning. In the higher terrain, this would translate to 8 to 12 inches of snow, with locally higher amounts along the Divide. This afternoon, the low moves east and takes the moisture with it. Forecast models are very consistent in folding a ridge of high pressure over western Montana and north central Idaho Thursday into the weekend.
In addition, another low pressure system looks to develop and track over the Midwest by Wednesday evening, progressing east into the Ohio Valley by Thursday morning.
- Mostly dry for the remainder of the week with seasonable temps in the low 70s, heating up to 80s this weekend. Warm/moist advection is occurring ahead of this trough. At this hour, dewpoints higher than the 50 are constrained to Oklahoma, but as the trough moves further east this morning some of those higher dewpoints will likely make it into far eastern Kansas. A weak cold front may move into northern Kansas Thursday afternoon/evening.
Gusty northerly winds are expected across the forecast area today along with the return of cooler than normal temperatures.
Massive closed upper low over the Dakotas will linger through Thurs, supporting cool and unsettled conds. In addition, snow will continue in the higher elevations of the Black Hills above 5 kft, with another 2-5 inches of snow expected above 6kft tonight into Wed morning. May end up extending the high wind warning through 03Z this evening when the NPW is updated around 21Z this afternoon.
Expect a cool and clear night across northern Arizona with freezes in the high country. Models show an very elongated, positively tilted trough stretching from the Central Plains through Arizona later this week. As the original low pressure area pushes eastward, a cutoff low wants to develop over the state, leading to cooler temperatures and unsettled conditions. , a ridge sets up our north, created a Rex Block pattern.
Cooler and unsettled weather is expected this weekend. KEY MESSAGES: - Brief ridging will allow for dry weather with sunshine on Wednesday. ------------------------------------------------------------------- Weak ridging brings quiet weather on Wednesday into Wednesday night. However another trough with 50 to 70 meter height falls pushes a low pressure area up Ohio Valley with a surge of warm advection showers and thunderstorms. - Cooler temperatures arrive by late week with highs in the 60s this weekend.
Pleasant temperatures can be expected for the next couple of days as a positively tilted synoptic scale trough oriented from the western Great Lakes â across Nebraska and Kansas - into the Great Basin region shifts very slowly southward forcing the southern branch subtropical jet into the sun belt. At the surface, broad Pacific high pressure extends across the northwest Pacific into the Northern Rockies and High Plains, keeping a light to breezy at times (mainly afternoons) surface wind field over western and central Kansas.
Afterwards, cooler and slightly drier conditions are expected, though shower chances can not be ruled out through the weekend. Deeply uniform southwest flow develops ahead of a l/w trough north of the region with a wsw-ene orientation. This is as yet another s/w piece of energy gets pushed ene ahead of the l/w trough, prompting a surface circulation to move east through the CWA.
(Today through Thursday) Warm and dry conditions will be the story through the short term period as ridging builds over the region. Chances for showers and thunderstorms will be very limited between PWAT values dropping to around 1" and overall subsidence from the ridge. Temperatures will warm a few more degrees on Thursday as the ridge continues to build in and the airmass heats up.
1223 AM CDT Wed May 8 2024 (The rest of tonight) Quiet weather is likely for most of the night, although potential for early morning showers and thunderstorms ahead of an approaching cold front remains toward day break in northeast Oklahoma.
Warmer conditions are expected tomorrow with another round of isolated showers and thunderstorms in the east tomorrow.
340 AM EDT Wed May 8 2024 A narrow ridge of high pressure will offer fair and warm conditions through most of today before a disturbance brings a return of showers and thunderstorms late in the day extending into Thursday morning.
- Warm and breezy conditions expected Wednesday, followed by cooler conditions and a chance of rain Thursday. 5C/km should limit hail diameter potential, but any non-hydrostatic force provided by mesocyclones could cause for hail diameters to exceed 1 inch. The zonal gradient orientation in the wake of the upper level trough release will then set the stage for a relatively breezy day on Wednesday.
A cold front will move into the Mid-South tonight. Ahead of the cold front, thunderstorms will develop and move across the region. The cold front will move into central Mississippi on Thursday with scattered thunderstorms confined to portions of north Mississippi.
(Today) Warm front currently across SE OK is lifting northward with intense warm moist advection ongoing in its advance courtesy of 50-6kt low level jet. A zone across far northern OK / southern KS is currently coupled within the favorable jet dynamics and the low level warm advection and this corridor will become the near term focus for storm initiation as it expands eastward through the morning. Any early day storms may continue to fester along and north of the lifting warm front with the focus becoming more north of the forecast area by early afternoon. The cold front associated withe passing wave will be making slow but steady progress eastward through the day and will eventually become the focus for renewed storm initiation by mid to late afternoon.
A cold front will approach the state on Wednesday.
Broad upper troughing exists over the northern Plains. Thursday the upper level trough that was over the northern Plains will move into the Great Lakes region. A vort max rounding the base of the trough will move through the area producing diurnal storms and showers.
1129 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024 - Low pressure continues to spin over the region tonight through Wednesday before finally departing Wednesday night. Additional shower/thunderstorm chances (20-40%) on Wednesday in associated with this low pressure. Low pressure continues to spin across the region, now centered along the ND/SD border north of KMBG. On Wednesday, the upper low shifts to the south of the region, but with daytime heating and the colder temps aloft associated with the upper low, look for increasing clouds and scattered showers and thunderstorms by afternoon. Although, the majority of convective activity may be a bit further south of the CWA closer to the upper low circulation. While Thursday appears to be mostly dry, cannot rule out isolated, 20 pop, during the afternoon hours over the higher terrain area in eastern SD, and further west over western SD.
Water vapor imagery currently shows an upper low rotating across the Northern Plains with one of the main vort lobes extending from the Northern Intermountain into the Central Rockies. At the surface, cold front extends from northern MO into far eastern OK. Cold front should push back to the southeast by the early afternoon hours with the more substantial surface convection expected southeast of the forecast area. There is good agreement between the GFS and ECMWF in the upper low over the Northern Plains shearing out with some of the upper energy getting cutoff across the Great Basin by Thu and remaining there through at least Fri. A weak cold front will shift winds to the northwest today.
This stacked ridging will favor warm and dry conditions, with afternoon high temperatures running several degrees above normal, and rain free conditions holding.
- Low temperatures in the lower to middle 30s will be conducive for a frost and freeze over north-central and far northeast Wisconsin on Thursday night. An upper level low pressure system and mid-level frontogenetic forcing will gradually shift out of far N/NE WI early this morning, resulting in a gradual decrease in the rain band that lingers there. Persistent clouds over northern WI should hold temperatures in the lower to middle 60s over northern WI today, while partly cloudy skies and sunshine boosts highs into the lower to middle 70s farther south. Mostly cloudy skies and brisk NE winds (especially in the Fox Valley and lakeshore areas) will bring cooler highs in the 50s to around 60 range on Thursday.
- Upper level ridging amplifies over the western United States late this week and into the weekend, with drier northwesterly flow developing aloft. By tomorrow, the large upper low anchored over the northern Plains will begin to slide southward, becoming centered overhead by tomorrow afternoon. The area remains under the influence of the aforementioned upper low again on Thursday, with yet another round of showers and thunderstorms through the afternoon.
619 AM CDT Wed May 8 2024 (Today) Warm front currently across SE OK is lifting northward with intense warm moist advection ongoing in its advance courtesy of 50-6kt low level jet. A zone across far northern OK / southern KS is currently coupled within the favorable jet dynamics and the low level warm advection and this corridor will become the near term focus for storm initiation as it expands eastward through the morning. Any early day storms may continue to fester along and north of the lifting warm front with the focus becoming more north of the forecast area by early afternoon. The cold front associated withe passing wave will be making slow but steady progress eastward through the day and will eventually become the focus for renewed storm initiation by mid to late afternoon.
Drier and slightly cooler weather arrives for the weekend. Upstream convection over the Ohio Valley this morning formed along a warm front and is now primarily outflow driven as it advances southward. A surface wave and low pressure system will move through the OH Valley on Thursday, draping a front through the Mid-Atlantic. There is potential for severe thunderstorms to create damaging winds and large hail Thursday, especially in the NC Piedmont where the higher instability is expected.
A ridge of high pressure aloft will begin to build into the area today then strengthen toward the end of the week as thermally induced low pressure near the surface expands northward into the area.
Gusts will start around 30 mph, but are forecast to lower going into the afternoon hours as the height gradient weakens with the upper low more over the area. Tonight and into tomorrow, the upper low is forecast to split with a cut off low forecast to develop and move to the west coast while the main trough swings through the Great Lakes region. For the weekend, warm and dry conditions will give way to more unsettled weather as the upper cut-off low advances to the east.
725 AM EDT Wed May 8 2024 (Today through Thursday) Warm and dry conditions will be the story through the short term period as ridging builds over the region. Chances for showers and thunderstorms will be very limited between PWAT values dropping to around 1" and overall subsidence from the ridge. Temperatures will warm a few more degrees on Thursday as the ridge continues to build in and the airmass heats up.
Low pressure continues to weaken early this morning with a broadening circulation. The upper low will move southeast through SD over the course of the day. The trough continues to move east.
617 AM CDT Wed May 8 2024 (Today and tonight) As of 2 AM CDT, a shallow surface cold front is across the central Texas Panhandle and is expected to continue to push southward through the forecast area this morning. The upper closed low continues to wobble over the Northern Plains today with another vort lobe ejecting around the southern periphery of the low.
Other than the patchy freezing conditions across the forecast area this morning, concerns are minimal given the current temperatures.
- Brief ridging will allow for dry weather with sunshine today. Weak ridging brings quiet weather today into Wednesday night. However another trough with 50 to 70 meter height falls pushes a low pressure area up Ohio Valley with a surge of warm advection showers and thunderstorms.
Temperatures along the Keys in the low to mid 80s this morning combined with dewpoints in the mid to upper 70s are making for a muggy midweek! Light breezes out of the east to southeast continue, and skies will remain mostly sunny as occasional clouds pass across the forecast area. High pressure over the western North Atlantic will maintain moderate to occasionally fresh east to southeast breezes through Thursday night.
643 AM EDT Wed May 8 2024 A narrow ridge of high pressure will offer fair and warm conditions through most of today before a disturbance brings a return of showers and thunderstorms late in the day extending into Thursday morning.
Winds will be light and variable Thursday as a weak cold front approaches the region.
625 AM CDT Wed May 8 2024 A cold front will move into the Mid-South tonight. Ahead of the cold front, thunderstorms will develop and move across the region. The cold front will move into central Mississippi on Thursday with scattered thunderstorms confined to portions of north Mississippi.
Temperatures will be a bit cooler today and moreso on Thursday behind a secondary surge of cooler air. A cold front is through the entire Panhandles at the time of this writing. Zonal flow is expected across the region both today and tomorrow with low pressure to the north of the forecast area. Slightly cooler air will be in place for today behind the front so highs will range from the mid 70s north to mid 80s south. Tonight into Thursday morning a secondary surge of cooler air behind a front will turn winds out of the northeast through the remainder of the short term forecast. Even though breezy conditions are forecast for Thursday, cooler temperatures and higher humidity values will mitigate any fire weather concerns for Thursday.
The deserts will be cooler today with the coast and valleys warmer. Then slowly warmer inland into the weekend with not much change for the coast and valleys.
There is an upper level low over the western Dakotas, which is continuing to bring moisture mainly across our eastern areas in northerly flow. To the west, there continues to be strong high pressure ridging currently over the west coast. Models show this line moving very slowly south this morning making it to the Lower Snake Plain and Southeast Highlands by late morning/early evening. Snow levels look to rise and bring rain to the Lower Snake plain by late this morning. However, if this convergence line drops down more quickly, some light snow would be possible for the Lower Snake plain. By Thursday, high pressure starts to build into our northern and western areas. Additionally, temperatures in the low to mid thirties are expected again Thursday morning across our frost/freeze zones.
A building expansive Pacific ridge of high pressure will continue to bring warming temperatures and strengthening N to NE winds. A strong, Pacific ridge is amplifying over the region, and this strengthening will continue through late in the week. Temperatures will be noticeably warmer today than yesterday.
(This evening through Thursday) Cold front moves through overnight tonight through Thursday morning, with potential for Severe Weather Thursday afternoon and evening along the eastern portions of West Central Texas. Above-normal temperatures from today will mostly come to an end as the next cold front tracks into West Central Texas overnight tonight into Thursday morning, with only the southern half of West Central Texas continuing to experience above-normal temperatures again on Thursday.
344 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024 - Areas of frost are expected across interior portions of the Arrowhead overnight with temperatures falling into the low to mid 30s.
- Drier and cooler conditions for late week and weekend. A cold front was also located across eastern Kansas into eastern Oklahoma. The region, in the warm sector, has seen temperatures increase to into the lower to middle 80s with Td's in the upper 60s to around 70. A cold front will move through the area tonight which will shift winds to the northwest. This will also bring into the region drier air and a cooler airmass. Overnight lows will fall into the upper 50s as the cooler air filters into the region with clearing skies. With mostly clear skies but a cooler airmass, afternoon highs will still climb into the middle 70's.
- A transition to warmer and drier weather is expected Thursday through the weekend. Low pressure that was vertically stacked over southwestern ND/northwestern SD has become elongated as it quickly shifts southeast through the remainder of today into tonight. For Thursday, a quick-moving ridge on a west to east axis passes through the area bringing warmer temperatures to the region. During the weekend, models are in fair agreement that somewhat weak upper low pressure will develop over the Four Corners region and progress eastward, while more organized low pressure passes through south central Canada towards the southern Hudson Bay. A trailing trough off the Hudson Bay low brings the best chances of precipitation towards the middle of the week.
A rather pleasant day underway with temperatures well into the 70s and a few spots in the lower 80s with comfortable humidity levels. Timing has been pushed back a bit, and confidence has taken a hit given varied locations of the low level boundary by near term models.
1146 AM EDT Wed May 8 2024 A narrow ridge of high pressure will offer fair and warm conditions through most of today before a disturbance brings a return of showers and thunderstorms late in the day extending into Thursday morning.
225 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024 - Mostly dry for the remainder of the week with seasonable temps in the lower to mid 70s, warming into the upper 70s to lower 80s this weekend.
A warm and very unstable airmass exists ahead of a cold front, and any thunderstorms that are able to form in this environment will be primed for quick intensification and capable of producing all severe hazards. The highest chances for flooding will be in southern middle TN and areas north of the TN River.
Ridging over the area is causing some drier air and keeping showers away while also turning the heat up.
Moisture previously encircling the primary low pressure center in eastern Montana is now gradually receding eastward as the system progresses eastward today. In this scenario, the Northern Rockies will find themselves under the influence of a warm high pressure ridge, fostering a steady warming trend through the weekend.
Surface convection has exited stage right at mid-afternoon as the cold front has moved out of our southeast Kansas counties. A secondary weak front will slide south from Nebraska and reinforce the modestly cooler/drier (yet seasonably mild) air across the area for Thursday as sort of a col develops aloft over Nebraska by Thursday afternoon, between the upper trof across the Great Lakes and upper low over the Canyonland region of eastern Utah.
(This evening through Thursday) The cold front continues its progress eastward early this afternoon, with a moist and very unstable airmass in place ahead of the boundary.
(The rest of this afternoon and tonight) Thunderstorms continue to develop early this afternoon across northeast Oklahoma in the vicinity of a cold front that extends from near Nowata to near Oilton and back into south-central Oklahoma. The storms are expected to come to an end later this evening as the cold front exits.
337 PM EDT Wed May 8 2024 Showers and thunderstorm activity will be more numerous ahead of a strong cold front tonight into Thursday, with severe storms possible.
Lighter winds across the region today compared to yesterday, along with warmer temps. Low pressure continues to weaken early this morning with a broadening circulation. The upper low will move southeast through SD over the course of the day. The trough continues to move east.
As of 10:45 AM today, temperatures are reaching the lower 80s once again under mostly cloudy skies. Otherwise, temperature maximums will be above average in the lower 90s. Otherwise, temperatures will remain above average with maximums in the lower 90s/lower 70s.
128 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024 A cold front will move into the Mid-South tonight. Ahead of the cold front, thunderstorms will develop and move across the region. The cold front will move into central Mississippi on Thursday with scattered thunderstorms confined to portions of north Mississippi.
-Warmer and drier conditions expected for the weekend. For the weekend, 500hpa Pacific ridge flops into the midwest, compressing the low south where it eventually becomes cut off in the desert southwest.