Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
314 AM EDT Sun Aug 18 2024 - Showers and thunderstorms possible again this afternoon and evening, mainly along and north of I-74 - Wind gusts of up to around 25 mph are expected this afternoon -Dry and cooler than normal through mid week with highs in the 70s and lows generally in the 50s. A low pressure system moving over the Great Lakes will exit to the east through the day, leaving behind cooler temperatures and backside moisture over central Indiana. Given the NW winds, temperatures will be cooler today with highs near 80 and lows tonight reaching the low 60s.
1155 PM CDT Sat Aug 17 2024 (The rest of tonight) Mostly clear skies and calm conditions are noted areawide this evening as subtle surface ridging resides over the region.
Pattern Synopsis/Pattern Forecast: Deep long wave troughing continues to dominate Great Lakes weather early this morning. While deepest moisture advection and forcing is now well removed to our east, still relatively moisture rich cyclonic flow within overhead troughing continues to kick off some spotty most light showers across parts of the area. Temperatures will remain a few degrees below specific normal values today, with highs topping out again in the lower to middle 70s. Expect lows tonight to drop down in the lower and middle 50s. Pattern Synopsis and Forecast: Seasonably cool, but absolutely pleasant weather to start the work week thanks to northerly flow on the back edge of a departing upper low and front side of a stout ridge extending, in part, from the Desert Southwest up into the Arctic regions of Canada.
(Today and tonight) More of the same regarding temperatures today with upper level high pressure still positioned almost squarely overhead. This combined with some modest mid/upper height rises should result in high temperatures a degree or two warmer compared to yesterday in some locations, with highs expected to exceed 100 degrees area-wide today.
(Today and tonight) Satellite imagery shows extensive stratus development across the region, as an upper level low off the coast of the Pacific Northwest continues to promote temperatures below seasonal averages through the region. Low temperatures tonight remain in the 50s to the low 60s throughout the regions, save the highest peaks of the Santa Lucias where highs could rise into the upper 60s to lower 70s. High temperatures will range from the upper 50s to mid 60s at the coast, to the upper 60s to the mid 70s at the Bayshore, the mid 70s to the mid 80s in the inland valleys with temperatures reaching the low 90s in the warmest spots of southern Monterey County.
We will see moisture slowly increase on Monday as a trough starts to dip down south along the east coast of the US switching winds to the southwest.
Upper level cloud cover associated with the disturbance will keep temperatures slightly cooler today. - Cooler than normal conditions expected the first half of the week. Blocking Omega pattern continues today with tropical storm Ernesto over the Atlantic keeping the pattern from evolving the next few days. With the broad area of high pressure remaining across the Upper Midwest, light northerly flow will continue to advect drier air into the region. This will allow temperatures to fall into the lower 60s across much of the region tonight. Cooler than normal temperatures are expected the first half of the week as the upper level ridge to the west retreats ever so slightly as additional disturbances ride around the upper ridge.
An old outflow/pre-frontal trough has settled around or just south of the Interstate 20 corridor. The pre-frontal trough should be the main weather player for today, but cannot rule out some isold convection along the actual frontal boundary late this afternoon and evening. The pre-frontal trough/outflow boundary is hard to find within the surface pressure and wind field, but is a bit more discernible within the dewpoint field - there is a bit more of a gradient. The higher res models have been performing fairly decently with placement and timing of afternoon storms the last few days, and will stick with current trends.
1216 AM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024 (This evening through Sunday) The upper ridge continues to spin over northeast New Mexico this afternoon and is expected to meander east over West Texas by tomorrow. Any storms that develop should weaken or diminish later this evening after sunset with a lack of forcing under the dome of high pressure.
1227 AM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024 (Tonight through Sunday night) Key Message: - Heat Advisory in effect today and tomorrow with a Moderate to Major risk of heat related impacts This strong mid-level high remains over the Southern Plains with the associated ridge extending across the central CONUS.
303 AM EDT Sun Aug 18 2024 A cold front approaching from the northwest will move gradually eastward through the region today through Monday.
(Today through Monday) An positively tilted upper-level trough will pass through the region today, with an associated surface cold front making its way through Central Alabama. With another day of highs in the mid 90s and dew points in the low to mid 70s, expected SBCAPE of around 2000 J/kg and DCAPE values potentially above 1000 or even 1200 J/kg will favor thunderstorms with damaging wind potential.
(Today through Monday) - Heat Advisory in effect today a Moderate to Major risk of heat related impacts A broad mid level ridge centered over the Texas Panhandle will maintain hot and dry conditions through the short term forecast.
Upper ridging over the central to western CONUS into Canada will aid in keeping most of the Northland dry through mid-week.
This flow pattern is the result of being caught between a building ridge across the intermountain west and central plains, and a large upper low across the Great Lakes. The upper ridge across the western CONUS will continue to grow, while the upper low to the east will transition into an open trough and dig farther into the southeast. The end result will be temperatures climbing into the low to mid 80s both days, which is roughly 5 degrees below seasonal averages. Not only this, but high pressure is expected to keep precipitation at bay, although we may see some mid level clouds and possibly some virga across central Missouri late this evening and overnight.
1232 AM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024 (Tonight through Sunday night) Upper-level ridging along the Rocky Mountains will continue to build through the period, generally supporting broad subsidence and relatively dry mid-level flow across the region. At the surface, high pressure is expected to remain in control across the Gulf of Mexico, with a weak pressure gradient across Deep South Texas.
Mostly cloudy skies expected to remain in place overnight however in moist cyclonic low level flow on the back side of the low situated over Lake Huron.
We do expect to see strengthening of the low-level thermal ridge today and tomorrow as indicated by the upward trend in the 925mb and 850mb model temperatures. Overnight lows will not offer much relief from the heat as most locations only drop into the lower 70s to lower 80s.
(Sunday through Monday) Another hot day in store for the ArkLaTex as an upper-level high across the Texas panhandle ridges southeast across the region.
Current IR depicts the ridge of higher heights extending in from the south to southeast as monsoonal moisture starts to pump more northeastward across the Rocky Mountain West. Going forward, monsoonal moisture weakens throughout the week, although a continued active pattern with the upper level low ongoing across the Pacific Northwest. This will continue to weaken the upper level high with increasing divergence aloft as it moves more east into the southeastern portions of the US.
/Issued 1250 AM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024/ /Overnight through Monday/ Mid level ridging will continue to expand across North Texas through Monday keeping things hot and dry. Overnight lows will only drop into the lower 80s. Any convection that develops today will generally track around the periphery of the stronger ridging and should remain well removed from our area. /NEW/ /Monday Night Onward/ The upper level pattern will consist of a ridge over the southern Rockies and a trough along the Eastern Seaboard at the start of the period.
320 AM EDT Sun Aug 18 2024 A cold front approaching from the northwest will move gradually eastward through the region today through Monday.
141 AM EDT Sun Aug 18 2024 A cold front moves across the mid-Atlantic today reaching the coast by Monday morning. High pressure builds in midweek with less humid and cooler air. Storms should become less by dusk, though as upper trough axis shifts to the area late tonight with upslope low level flow scattered showers will likely linger through the night in the WV/far SW VA and NC mountains.
One final day of heat and humidity before a cold front moves through the Mid-South.
220 AM MDT Sun Aug 18 2024 Powerful ridge continues to dominate the weather pattern over our region today. We do have monsoonal moisture riding the S/SW flow under the ridge and this is progged to work into SW MT by afternoon along with some weak impulse energy. The upper ridge axis will have shifted a little further east into the Dakotas. Highs today and Monday will be in the lower to mid 90s, with overnight lows ranging from mid 50s in the western foothills to 60s over the eastern plains.
Isolated showers are expected areawide this morning as a deep trough sits over the Eastern U. A cold front will move through the region this morning bringing much lower temps and dew points. For the most part, showers will be confined to along and north of I-40 and the higher elevations of the East Tennessee Mountains (due to terrain forcing in northwest flow).
544 AM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024 (Today through Monday night) An upper level high will be centered over the Panhandles today. Highs today should be similar or slightly warmer than yesterday. Thunderstorms are expected to remain northwest of the CWA through tonight as the high deflects the mountain convection more north and around our CWA. On Monday, a cold front is expected to move into the Panhandles. The general consensus is that the Oklahoma Panhandle and the northern Texas Panhandle could be a little cooler on Monday, while the southern Texas Panhandle has highs similar to Sunday's. Also, we may have some thunderstorms try to sneak into the Oklahoma Panhandle as the upper high shifts ever so slightly to the west and a northwest flow tries to bring mountain convection this way.
Dry and cooler weather is expected for much of the coming week. ------------------------------------------------------------------- A slow-moving mid/upper-level low remains centered north of the area and slowly shifting east and a crossing weak cold front will maintain isolated to scattered showers today. KEY MESSAGES: - Residual showers with cooler temperatures are likely on Monday, diminishing Monday evening. ------------------------------------------------------------------- The trough will shift east overnight, with the axis crossing Pittsburgh early Monday morning. ------------------------------------------------------------------- Long range ensembles indicate that upper low pressure will slowly meander across the Northeast through much of the week while fairly amplified ridging continues over the Rockies.
622 AM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024 (Today and tonight) More of the same regarding temperatures today with upper level high pressure still positioned almost squarely overhead. This combined with some modest mid/upper height rises should result in high temperatures a degree or two warmer compared to yesterday in some locations, with highs expected to exceed 100 degrees area-wide today.
- A break down in the upper-level ridge will yield a good chance for showers and storms across much of the area on Monday.
Winds will remain fairly light under this high pressure system keeping the smoke in place throughout the day.
High pressure aloft will remain centered over New Mexico on Monday with our flow becoming a bit more easterly.
658 AM EDT Sun Aug 18 2024 - Showers and thunderstorms possible again this afternoon and evening, mainly along and north of I-74 - Wind gusts of up to around 25 mph are expected this afternoon -Dry and cooler than normal through mid week with highs in the 70s and lows generally in the 50s. A low pressure system moving over the Great Lakes will exit to the east through the day, leaving behind cooler temperatures and backside moisture over central Indiana. Given the NW winds, temperatures will be cooler today with highs near 80 and lows tonight reaching the low 60s.
Highs generally in the low and mid 70s. Pattern Synopsis/Pattern Forecast: Deep long wave troughing continues to dominate Great Lakes weather early this morning. While deepest moisture advection and forcing is now well removed to our east, still relatively moisture rich cyclonic flow within overhead troughing continues to kick off some spotty most light showers across parts of the area. Temperatures will remain a few degrees below specific normal values today, with highs topping out again in the lower to middle 70s. Expect lows tonight to drop down in the lower and middle 50s. Pattern Synopsis and Forecast: Seasonably cool, but absolutely pleasant weather to start the work week thanks to northerly flow on the back edge of a departing upper low and front side of a stout ridge extending, in part, from the Desert Southwest up into the Arctic regions of Canada.
Potential towards the end of the week for even cooler temperatures and breezy to gusty winds. Temperatures right now are anywhere from around 5 degrees cooler than 24 hours ago in the southern Sacramento and northern San Joaquin Valleys, to 10 to 15 degrees cooler in the northern Sacramento Valley, foothills, and mountains. Over the course of the next few days, the low will be pushed northwest by ridging over the desert southwest, allowing conditions to dry out a bit and for temperatures to fluctuate up and down but remaining near normal.
The synoptic picture shows the mass of tropical moisture moving northward near Bermuda, the upper trough over the east coast and the large stacked high centered over the panhandle region. It is between this upper trough and stacked high where we will get our next storms. A cold front is currently located from W.
640 AM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024 (Sunday through Monday) Another hot day in store for the ArkLaTex as an upper-level high across the Texas panhandle ridges southeast across the region.
633 AM EDT Sun Aug 18 2024 A cold front approaching from the northwest will move gradually eastward through the region today through Monday.
618 AM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024 - 30-50% chance for showers and storms west of Springfield tonight - Cool and dry for the upcoming week The Ozarks are sitting in the northwest flow between a high pressure center to the southwest and a low pressure center to the northeast. Otherwise, values will range from the high 80s in the north to around 90 in Springfield to around 100 in the southwest. Highs Monday will sit in the low to mid 80s with lows in the low to mid 60s overnight (high 50s in low-lying areas out east).
620 AM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024 One final day of heat and humidity before a cold front moves through the Mid-South.
A trough right of the west coast of the CONUS will keep temperatures slightly below normal today. This trough along with the ridge over the southern central CONUS will continue to draw up dry air into the state. As the trough weakens into the beginning of the work week, the ridge will deepen slightly and the western side is expected to spread into Central California.
Dunn Previous Discussion: /Overnight through Monday/ Mid level ridging will continue to expand across North Texas through Monday keeping things hot and dry. Overnight lows will only drop into the lower 80s. Any convection that develops today will generally track around the periphery of the stronger ridging and should remain well removed from our area. /Issued 218 AM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024/ /Monday Night Onward/ The upper level pattern will consist of a ridge over the southern Rockies and a trough along the Eastern Seaboard at the start of the period.
1042 AM EDT Sun Aug 18 2024 A closed low will be over lower Ontario today, with a broad cyclonic flow across the TN Valley and Appalachians. A jet streak over the Mid MS Valley will push SE, ampliyfing the upper trough and cooling midlevel temperatures this afternoon. Isolated showers are expected areawide this morning as a deep trough sits over the Eastern U. A cold front will move through the region this morning bringing much lower temps and dew points. For the most part, showers will be confined to along and north of I-40 and the higher elevations of the East Tennessee Mountains (due to terrain forcing in northwest flow).
938 AM EDT Sun Aug 18 2024 A low pressure system moving through the Great Lakes will bring scattered showers and a few thunderstorms to our area today. High pressure will then build into the region, bringing dry and seasonably cool conditions through mid week. With the expansive cloud cover and widespread SHRA, temps will be held considerably cooler than has been the case recently as highs only out in the mid to upper 70s. This will lead to dry conditions and cooler temperatures.
623 AM EDT Sun Aug 18 2024 A low pressure system moving through the Great Lakes will bring scattered showers and a few thunderstorms to our area today. High pressure will then build into the region, bringing dry and seasonably cool conditions through mid week. Low pressure will continue to move east across the lower Great Lakes today. A cooler airmass will start to settle into the area today with afternoon highs only in the mid 70s to lower 80s. This will lead to dry conditions and cooler temperatures.
For the beginning of the week, troughing will start to get deeper into the SE U. Towards the end of our forecast period winds start to pick up, which some models are suggesting could be due to a potential closed low along the Gulf Coast. A deepening trough over the northeastern United States will result in local breezes turning out of the west or southwest by Monday.
(Rest of Today) A cold front is forecast to move through the Tennessee Valley this afternoon, bringing low chances (30% or less) of showers/storms to the area. Higher chances within that range remain in our southern counties with the highest confidence in Cullman County.
616 AM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024 (Today through Monday) An positively tilted upper-level trough will pass through the region today, with an associated surface cold front making its way through Central Alabama. With another day of highs in the mid 90s and dew points in the low to mid 70s, expected SBCAPE of around 2000 J/kg and DCAPE values potentially above 1000 or even 1200 J/kg will favor thunderstorms with damaging wind potential.
Most land-based observation sites are recording temperatures in the lower to mid 80s. A deepening trough over the northeastern United States will result in local breezes turning out of the west or southwest by Monday.
631 AM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024 (Today through Monday) - Heat Advisory in effect today a Moderate to Major risk of heat related impacts A broad mid level ridge centered over the Texas Panhandle will maintain hot and dry conditions through the short term forecast.
North central Idaho and western Montana will remain under south-southwest flow aloft through Monday with a low pressure system situated along the Pacific northwest coast and broad high pressure over the central part of the country.
The weather pattern remains largely unchanged today, with an upper-level low to the west and a ridge over the Four Corners region. The low has shifted further east, which should help maintain near-normal temperatures.
Meanwhile, the 12Z KSHV raob indicates considerable drying of our air mass has occurred above the bndry lyr over the last 12 hrs, with PW's having dropped about a quarter inch, with the late morning visible satellite imagery maintaining a mostly clear sky areawide along the Ern periphery of the upper ridge axis that remains anchored from the Srn Plains SE into WCntrl LA.
1234 PM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024 Temperatures across the Mid-South at this hour range from the low 80s to near 90 degrees under mostly clear skies. Hot and humid conditions resulting in dangerous heat index values are still expected across portions of north Mississippi and southeastern Arkansas ahead of a southward moving cold front, where a Heat Advisory and Excessive Heat Warning remain in effect until 8 pm CDT tonight. The cold front will clear the Mid-South later this afternoon, bringing cooler temperature and drier conditions to the region. JPR One final day of heat and humidity before a cold front moves through the Mid-South.
But with cooler low temps in the mid 50s to lower 60s forecast, development in at least the typical fog prone locations is sure possible. The synoptic pattern will feature a large upper ridge building over the central sections of the US, with a persistent closed upper low over the east coast.
(Tonight through Monday night) Key Messages: - Moderate to major risk of heat-related illnesses Monday A mid to upper level ridge will continue to hold firm over Texas promoting above normal temperatures.
For the most part, this activity will remain elevated on the cooler side of the front, but still will be adequate instability and shear for at least a limited severe threat through tonight. (Tomorrow through Sunday) Scattered convection could linger through the morning across mainly NW AR, otherwise the front will continue its back-door path across much of the area bringing notably less humid and slightly cooler air into all but the far southeast portion of OK. As the area remains on the eastern side of the upper ridge, nocturnal storm chances may persist another day or two but with a down-turn in coverage and intensity.
Currently, there is a big ridge of high pressure & anomalously warm temperatures over west Texas and the Oklahoma Panhandle Region. Models are converging on having this high slowly propagate to the north and east. Towards the end of this week, the high looks to be positioned over the Midwest & would subsequently drive our temperatures upward.
Ridging aloft will lead to a dry and dangerously hot day with temperatures afternoon reaching triple digits across central Louisiana and interior Texas.
304 PM EDT Sun Aug 18 2024 An approaching cold front will lead to increasing humidity and storm chances this afternoon into this evening.
(This evening through Monday) The upper ridge is expected to continue spinning directly overhead today and tomorrow. With the placement in the dome of high pressure and strongest subsidence, dry air is expected to dominate aloft. Tomorrow's temperatures are on repeat and given the recent overachievement of temperatures over the NBM yesterday and so far today, highs were bumped warmer for tomorrow. A few records may be tied or broken tomorrow with the high forecast to be 103 degrees in Lubbock and a previous record of 103 degrees (set back in 1994). Additionally, the high in Childress is forecast for 109 degrees with a previous record of 109 degrees (set back in 1943).
1226 PM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024 (Rest of today through Monday) Last night's cold front has passed entirely through Middle Tennessee, so we are enjoying a much drier and cooler air mass today. An upper trough is situated to our immediate east, and there is still a swath of moisture expected to ride down the northwest flow aloft into eastern portions of Middle Tennessee, so afternoon showers are still possible, mainly along the Cumberland Plateau.
The synoptic regime through the middle of the week will feature a persistent eastern Pacific trough, allowing dry, southwest flow to remain anchored over the Sierra and western Nevada. Keep your light jacket handy this week as it'll be chilly when the sun goes down with colder Sierra valleys nearing the freezing mark each night and early morning.