Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Not too much to update in the forecast, the dry and calm atmosphere means good radiational cooling will yield morning temperatures a few degrees above/below freezing. No precipitation expected as ridging and high pressure move in. Discussion: In the upper levels, a ridge is drifting eastward into the Southeast and OH/TN Valley tonight and tomorrow. At the surface, high pressure will be over the East Coast. Highs will be in the lower 60s for most of the Valley which is 5 to 8 degrees above normal.
1041 PM CST Tue Feb 20 2024 (This evening through Wednesday) Moisture will continue to spread northward tonight leading to higher dewpoints and warmer temperatures.
1225 AM EST Wed Feb 21 2024 High pressure remains centered over the region and this will continue to bring a period of quiet and mostly sunny weather through Wednesday.
Lows tonight will mostly be in the low to mid 40s. Because of this, nighttime temperatures will cool into the low to mid 40s. Around this time, mid-level ridging will be over the region. In addition to this, surface ridging will be centered over the eastern CONUS. The combination of ridging surface and aloft will help afternoon highs peak in the low 70s.
Model blends were too cool yesterday, and are actually cooler today. Mild again tonight with temperatures struggling to drop into the low to mid 50s.
Mainly mid and high clouds continue to drift thru the Western Great Lakes late this evening ahead of weak moisture-starved low pressure moving out of the Northern Plains toward our area. Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: High pressure now centered over New England as of early this afternoon. Weak low pressure remains progged to cross north of Lake Superior tonight. Warm advection this afternoon remains the rule through tonight, especially through the low levels. Low temperatures tonight quite a bit warmer than the last several -- ranging from the upper 20s to mid-30s area-wide.
317 AM EST Wed Feb 21 2024 High pressure with dry air remains over the region today, with sunny skies and high temperatures in the upper 60s to lower 70s.
332 AM EST Wed Feb 21 2024 High pressure remains centered over the region today with warm temperatures mostly sunny mostly sunny skies.
1020 PM CST Tue Feb 20 2024 - Warmer weather likely on Wednesday, with greater than 70% probabilities of reaching at least 60 degrees for highs.
1032 PM CST Tue Feb 20 2024 (This evening through Wednesday) An upper level trough will very quickly track eastward on Wednesday. While other models are slightly weaker, they all put the low center a bit farther north now over SE Colorado and SW Kansas.
136 AM EST Wed Feb 21 2024 High pressure drifting east of the area brings one more dry day today. High pressure east of the area maintains dry weather today and tonight. A return southerly flow on the back side of the high will continue the warming trend of late, with temperatures today again likely topping out near the higher end of the guidance envelop. On the other hand, dew points are likely to be closer to the lower end of the guidance envelope this afternoon, allowing RH values to drop into the 20s again. Warm advection ahead of a low pressure system approaching from the west will bring increasing cloudiness tonight.
We were quiet once again early this morning as mid to upper level ridging remained in place over he area.
1251 AM EST Wed Feb 21 2024 High pressure provides dry weather and a warming trend through Wednesday.
104 AM EST Wed Feb 21 2024 High pressure will maintain seasonable weather through today.
330 AM EST Wed Feb 21 2024 High pressure remains centered over the region today with warm temperatures mostly sunny mostly sunny skies.
Mostly sunny today with slightly warmer temperatures area-wide. Discussion: Ridging continues to build in today as troughing amplifies across the Great Plains.
A quick-moving trough will swing across Arizona today, bringing rain/high-elevation snow showers and gusty winds.
1044 PM CST Tue Feb 20 2024 - Quiet and warmer than normal weather to continue much of the week.
1000 PM CST Tue Feb 20 2024 - Quiet and warmer than normal weather to continue much of the week.
A weak cold front will bring a chance for showers and thunderstorms to the area for late tonight into Thursday night.
Southerly surface winds will begin increasing this afternoon and into Thursday, bringing a moisture increase ahead of a cold front expected Thursday night. For highs Thursday, trended higher again, with expected temps in the low to mid 70s, especially south of I-20.
527 AM CST Wed Feb 21 2024 (Wednesday through Thursday) A warm front has developed across the region, generally along a line from Idabel, OK to Monroe, LA. Otherwise, expect quiet conditions to continue, as upper ridging will remain over the region today. This even includes ares north of the warm front this morning, as that boundary is expected to lift north of the region by mid-morning. The pressure gradient will start to increase over the area Wednesday night into Thursday, as lee-side cyclogenesis develops over Eastern Colorado and slides eastward across the Southern Plains, dragging a cold front towards the region. Also, with the low-level moisture in place, can't rule out the development of some very light warm air advection drizzle/rain ahead of the front.
400 AM CST Wed Feb 21 2024 - Warmer than normal temps to continue today and Thursday with spring-like temps in the upper 30s to around 50.
621 AM EST Wed Feb 21 2024 Dry weather to continue through Thursday as dry high pressure remains in place across the area.
This puts much of central Minnesota in the high 40s, and parts of western Wisconsin and southern Minnesota in the low 50s.
High temperatures is afternoon will warm into the low to mid 80s area wide, except for the 70s near the coast. A weak, dry cold front will move through Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley late Thursday. Thursday will be warmer with highs in the mid to upper 80s.
Upper ridging extends northward from Mexico through the Plains States with upper troughs off the Carolina and southern California coasts. At the surface, the axis of high pressure extended from New England southwestward to the eastern Gulf of Mexico. While the upper ridge over Mexico isn't going anywhere, the California trough will lift northeastward over the top of the ridge, through the Rockies and central Plains States over the next 36 hours and be in the Ohio Valley Thursday night. By sunset Thursday, low pressure will be over Ohio with a cold front into northwest Louisiana and eastern Texas. High temperatures today and Thursday should be well into the 70s, except perhaps on the Mississippi coast, where winds coming off the cooler Mississippi Sound waters will hold highs closer to 70.
806 AM EST Wed Feb 21 2024 High pressure remains centered over the region today with warm temperatures and mostly sunny skies.
515 AM EST Wed Feb 21 2024 Dry weather to continue through Thursday as dry high pressure remains in place across the area.
High pressure will hold over the waters for the next couple of days with pleasant weather expected.
A quick-moving trough will swing across Arizona today, bringing rain/high-elevation snow showers and gusty winds. This trough will swing through northern Arizona rather fast, but expect precipitation to increase west to east early this morning through the late afternoon hours. Quieter weather will return on Thursday as another ridge builds over the region.
Broad upper ridge across the central US is leading to unseasonably mild condition temporarily peaking today. As this system pushes east, a weak area of low pressure is expected to develop across Kansas reinforcing the southerly flow. Area is on the northern fringes of the low level jet. As the low pressure moves east, 925 hpa temperatures cool 3-5 degrees leading to slightly cooler conditions on Thursday.
Mostly sunny today with slightly warmer temperatures area-wide. Discussion: Ridging continues to build in today as troughing amplifies across the Great Plains. This will bring an increase in warmer temperatures with an increase in moisture values as we head into tonight and Thursday. High pressure remains in control today with a mostly clear sky and warm, above normal temperatures area-wide.
- Breezy north winds will develop in the wake of a cold frontal passage Wednesday evening/night. However, most of the moisture will be in the mid levels so any precipitation will be light and only in areas where the lower levels become saturated (likely near the Tri-State border). Some snow may mix in, but would not amount to anything given relatively warm temperatures and the low accumulation amounts. Otherwise, when the low begins to move away from the area, there is the chance for stronger and gusty winds as the winds shift to out of the north. While not likely to cause any impacts, winds could gust up to 40 mph depending on how quickly the low moves off and the pressure gradient changes/tightens.
A building high pressure ridge over the western U.
521 AM CST Wed Feb 21 2024 (Today through Thursday night) Dry high pressure will continue to control our wx with another nice day. The center of the high will shift to the east coast today as low pressure begins to form out over the plains causing south winds to increase. Upper levels will feature a broad ridge across the south central and southeast states. This pattern will bring warmer temperatures today with highs around 5 degrees above yesterday. This will occur as the pressure gradient tightens ahead of advancing low pressure from the plains. On Thursday, the low pressure system and an associated cold front will continue to approach.
930 AM EST Wed Feb 21 2024 High pressure will maintain seasonable weather through today.
This morning, the precip may fall as a wintry mix of snow, rain, and freezing rain depending on location, with freezing rain potential greatest in the valleys. NBM guidance and radar precip-type estimations are indeed reflecting mixed precip/ice, although forecast sounding profiles are very temp- marginal in the low levels and not ideal for organized freezing rain, suggesting any freezing rain should be localized and short- lived. Elsewhere, localized patches of dense freezing fog remain possible both this AM and Thu AM, especially in plain/valley areas.
Later this morning into early afternoon, mixing erodes the low clouds and fog leading to well above normal temperatures this afternoon. Though, slightly cooler due to the later erosion of low clouds across some areas. This makes for a warmer Thursday than today with continued well above seasonal normal temperatures.
614 AM EST Wed Feb 21 2024 High pressure remains centered over the region today with warm temperatures mostly sunny mostly sunny skies.
405 AM EST Wed Feb 21 2024 High pressure will maintain seasonable weather through today.
359 AM MST Wed Feb 21 2024 Upper ridge over the region into the weekend will keep the weather warm and dry.
Broad upper ridge across the central US is leading to unseasonably mild condition temporarily peaking today. As this system pushes east, a weak area of low pressure is expected to develop across Kansas reiforcing the southerly flow. Area is on the northern fringes of the low level jet. As the low pressure moves east, 925 hpa temperatures cool 3-5 degrees leading to slightly cooler conditions on Thursday.
(Today) A very warm day is in store across the region as upper level ridging remains in place with southwesterly flow at the surface.
521 AM CST Wed Feb 21 2024 - Warmer than normal temps to continue today and Thursday with spring-like temps in the upper 30s to around 50.
High pressure with dry air remains over the region today, with sunny skies and high temperatures in the upper 60s to lower 70s.
545 AM CST Wed Feb 21 2024 Today and Tonight: Warmer than normal and dry through the period. Early morning surface analysis had a 1025mb ridge nosing across our southern zones from the east and a 1012mb low centered over the central Plains. Early morning satellite imagery/RAP analysis showed the circulation around a large mid level ridge centered over the central CONUS. This mid level ridge is expected to shift east over our CWA today then shift east of Mississippi tonight. The combined ridging surface and aloft will help temperatures top out in the 70s today.
114 AM PST Wed Feb 21 2024 Lingering mountain showers today with drier, warmer weather in store for remainder of the work week.
335 AM CST Wed Feb 21 2024 - Warming trend continues today with near-record highs in the low to middle 70s.
(Wednesday through Thursday) A warm front has developed across the region, generally along a line from Idabel, OK to Monroe, LA. Otherwise, expect quiet conditions to continue, as upper ridging will remain over the region today. This even includes ares north of the warm front this morning, as that boundary is expected to lift north of the region by mid-morning. The pressure gradient will start to increase over the area Wednesday night into Thursday, as lee-side cyclogenesis develops over Eastern Colorado and slides eastward across the Southern Plains, dragging a cold front towards the region. Also, with the low-level moisture in place, can't rule out the development of some very light warm air advection drizzle/rain ahead of the front.
846 AM CST Wed Feb 21 2024 - Isolated light freezing rain across eastern North Dakota this morning, including the James River Valley.
356 AM CST Wed Feb 21 2024 Today and Tonight: Warmer than normal and dry through the period. Early morning surface analysis had a 1025mb ridge nosing across our southern zones from the east and a 1012mb low centered over the central Plains. Early morning satellite imagery/RAP analysis showed the circulation around a large mid level ridge centered over the central CONUS. This mid level ridge is expected to shift east over our CWA today then shift east of Mississippi tonight. The combined ridging surface and aloft will help temperatures top out in the 70s today.
These warmer temperatures will allow min RH values to drop close to 30 percent during the afternoon. Very late in the day, cloud cover will begin to increase ahead of an approaching low pressure system.
349 AM MST Wed Feb 21 2024 223 AM MST Wed Feb 21 2024 - Light snow showers possible over the higher elevations of the Black Hills this afternoon with minor accumulations - Dry and mild conditions will persist through the weekend - Potential for elevated fire weather through this weekend Current upper air analysis and WV imagery depict broad upper ridging over the central US. The higher elevations of the Black Hills could pick up a dusting of snow this afternoon where temperatures will be the coldest. Precip in the lower elevations in southwestern SD will be rain. Upper trough swings down from the Hudson Bay and digs into the Great Lakes/midwest on Thursday. The colder airmass associated with the trough will graze the forecast area with a cool front sweeping across the northern plains.
225 AM MST Wed Feb 21 2024 223 AM MST Wed Feb 21 2024 - Light snow showers possible over the higher elevations of the Black Hills this afternoon with minor accumulations - Dry and mild conditions will persist through the weekend - Potential for elevated fire weather through this weekend Current upper air analysis and WV imagery depict broad upper ridging over the central US. The higher elevations of the Black Hills could pick up a dusting of snow this afternoon where temperatures will be the coldest. Precip in the lower elevations in southwestern SD will be rain. Upper trough swings down from the Hudson Bay and digs into the Great Lakes/midwest on Thursday. The colder airmass associated with the trough will graze the forecast area with a cool front sweeping across the northern plains.
High pressure will keep conditions dry today, but rain chances return overnight into Thursday night with low pressure tracking through the Ohio Valley. Have trended temperatures on the warm side of guidance with highs from the upper 50s north to the lower and middle 60s south. Mild temperatures to continue with lows tonight in the lower and middle 40s and highs on Thursday from the lower 50s northwest to the upper 50s southeast. Thursday's low pressure system will be moving along the Ohio River at the start of the period and rain will quickly taper off.
817 AM EST Wed Feb 21 2024 Warm, dry conditions are expected again today under high pressure.
High pressure will keep conditions dry today, but rain chances return overnight into Thursday night with low pressure tracking through the Ohio Valley. With plenty of insolation and warm air advecting in the lower levels, have continued to trend highs above NBM guidance today. Mild temperatures to continue with lows tonight in the lower and middle 40s and highs on Thursday from the lower 50s northwest to the upper 50s southeast. Thursday's low pressure system will be moving along the Ohio River at the start of the period and rain will quickly taper off.
924 AM EST Wed Feb 21 2024 Dry high pressure remains over the area through Wednesday.
Current temperature trends generally in line with afternoon forecasted high values, but will continue to monitor for later update if warmer GFS LAMP guidance as compared to blend of other short term model guidance values wins out. (Today through Thursday night) Dry high pressure will continue to control our wx with another nice day. The center of the high will shift to the east coast today as low pressure begins to form out over the plains causing south winds to increase. Upper levels will feature a broad ridge across the south central and southeast states. This pattern will bring warmer temperatures today with highs around 5 degrees above yesterday. This will occur as the pressure gradient tightens ahead of advancing low pressure from the plains. On Thursday, the low pressure system and an associated cold front will continue to approach.
555 AM EST Wed Feb 21 2024 High pressure will maintain seasonable weather through today.
Scattered showers are anticipated to continue over Central California overnight as a result of the southwesterly flow ahead of the trough, bringing additional rainfall mainly to the southern San Joaquin Valley and Mojave Desert and snowfall in the Sierra Nevada above 6,000 feet. A slight amount of high pressure building in the lower levels of the atmosphere, paired with surface moisture from the past few days of precipitation, will bring a possibility of overnight and morning fog to areas of the San Joaquin Valley before the weekend.
529 AM CST Wed Feb 21 2024 (Today) A very warm day is in store across the region as upper level ridging remains in place with southwesterly flow at the surface.
617 AM EST Wed Feb 21 2024 Dry high pressure remains over the area through Wednesday.
At the surface, obs indicated a relatively weak are of low pressure across the middle MO river valley and central plains. With high pressure ridging into the lower MS river valley, a southerly low level wind favorable for moisture return had developed through east TX. For tonight models are in general agreement with the low level jet starting off the evening veered to the west-southwest. So the main change to the previous forecast has been to sharpen up the gradient in the POPs to confine the 15 to 30 percent chances to Coffey and Anderson Counties where the probability for the low level moisture advection are a little better.
1120 AM CST Wed Feb 21 2024 - Warmer than normal temps to continue today and Thursday with spring-like temps in the upper 30s to around 50.
204 PM EST Wed Feb 21 2024 Dry high pressure moves off the East Coast tonight.
High pressure across the Southeastern United States combined with low pressure to the west of Bermuda over the Western North Atlantic is causing stout northerly flow down the Florida Peninsula and across the Keys.
Once the fog dissipates, a rather nice day will be on tap as high pressure begins to build over the central US. A warming trend is expected as temperature moderation begins and highs will crack the low to mid 70s today and continue to climb into the mid to upper 70s tomorrow.
1231 PM PST Wed Feb 21 2024 A slight chance of light snow showers in the Sierra is expected this afternoon, followed by drier and warmer weather Thursday through the weekend. Surface obs reveal that western Nevada received a few hundredths of rainfall with even a trace of snow at the office here in north Reno just before daybreak! The remainder of today will be much drier as the upper trough departs the region. After today, quiet weather amid steady warming will prevail through the weekend as upper ridging anchors overhead. As such, anticipate urban valley haze and perhaps freezing fog in Sierra valleys each morning.
It is more of a "dirty" ridge, with lots of high cloud cover/moisture near the crest of the ridge. With the approach of a storm system now moving into AZ attm, the ridge axis will shift east, and the high cloud will shift east and south with time. Lacy (Today) A very warm day is in store across the region as upper level ridging remains in place with southwesterly flow at the surface.
1101 AM CST Wed Feb 21 2024 Recent observational trends depict that temperatures may end up being a bit warmer than expected. A weak cold front will bring a chance for showers and thunderstorms to the area for late tonight into Thursday night.
925 mb temperatures have trended warmer than yesterday reaching 10 to 13 degrees between 3 PM and 6 PM today near and west of the I-65 corridor. Thus, raised high temperatures into the lower 70s in NW Alabama and into the mid to upper 60s elsewhere. The combination of the lower dewpoints and the warmer temperatures will likely drop afternoon relative humidity values to around 29 percent early this afternoon.
1035 AM MST Wed Feb 21 2024 223 AM MST Wed Feb 21 2024 - Light snow showers possible over the higher elevations of the Black Hills this afternoon with minor accumulations - Dry and mild conditions will persist through the weekend - Potential for elevated fire weather through this weekend Current upper air analysis and WV imagery depict broad upper ridging over the central US. The higher elevations of the Black Hills could pick up a dusting of snow this afternoon where temperatures will be the coldest. Precip in the lower elevations in southwestern SD will be rain. Upper trough swings down from the Hudson Bay and digs into the Great Lakes/midwest on Thursday. The colder airmass associated with the trough will graze the forecast area with a cool front sweeping across the northern plains.
1150 AM CST Wed Feb 21 2024 Recent observational trends depict that temperatures may end up being a bit warmer than expected. A weak cold front will bring a chance for showers and thunderstorms to the area for late tonight into Thursday night.
(This evening through Thursday) Cooler temperatures are in store for Thursday, as a weak cold front moves through the area. The front will move through during the late morning and early afternoon hours, bringing breezy northwest winds and cooler temperatures. Lows tonight will be in the 50s, with highs Thursday ranging from the lower 70s across the Big Country, to the mid and upper 70s over southern portions of the forecast area.
/86/ Today and Tonight: Warmer than normal and dry through the period. Early morning surface analysis had a 1025mb ridge nosing across our southern zones from the east and a 1012mb low centered over the central Plains. Early morning satellite imagery/RAP analysis showed the circulation around a large mid level ridge centered over the central CONUS. This mid level ridge is expected to shift east over our CWA today then shift east of Mississippi tonight. The combined ridging surface and aloft will help temperatures top out in the 70s today.