Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Today: Water vapor imagery this afternoon depicts broad troughing in place across much of the central CONUS with a building ridge over the West Coast and eroding ridging along the East Coast in anticipation of the aforementioned trough. Through the rest of the day, we'll hit our cooler-than-average highs in the upper 70s to just over 80 degrees and see winds die down considerably overnight.
The 500 mb trough slowly advances towards the southeast, but our northwest flow regime should continue through the short term period. The trough that is setup east of the New Mexico mountain range shows a much slower progression with storms, so activity should not begin for Texas until after midnight. Tomorrow, warmer surface temperatures are like area wide.
This activity should shift south and east through the morning but the area remains under the trough axis through Saturday. Highs are forecast to range from the mid 70s in the west to the lower 80s in the east. For Saturday, the upper trough still will be lingering in the area, just to our east.
This means highs today in the 110s for most desert valleys, reaching the 120s in the lowest elevations such as Death Valley and the Colorado River Valley.
partly to mostly cloudy conditions and cooler temps were common. These cloud conditions and northerly low level flow filtering through the CWA will help to keep temps cooler this afternoon.
- The low pressure system lingers over the Great Lakes tomorrow keeping a chance of showers and thunderstorms in the forecast.
257 PM EDT Fri Jul 5 2024 The area looks to dry out over the weekend as high pressure builds across the Ohio Valley.
A weak cold front will cross the region early Saturday, resulting in afternoon temperatures a degree or two cooler, yet still moderately humid. High pressure crossing the region later Saturday and through the remainder of the weekend will promote fair weather. Potential for showers and thunderstorms increases across the area this evening and tonight, which will be tied to an incoming mid level wave from the upper Great Lakes and approaching weak cold frontal boundary. Saturday will be breezy and not quite as warm and humid in the wake of this cold frontal passage. Saturday will be breezy cooler in the wake of this cold frontal passage.
1216 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024 A bit cooler day is on tap for the Mid-South as sporadic showers and thunderstorms continue to spread across the area, ahead of a cold front.
Our area is currently under high pressure with weak northwest flow aloft as the high pressure ridge axis is just off the Pacific coast. High pressure will strengthen slightly through the period bringing continued dry conditions, overall clear skies, and gradual warming. Winds will be slightly breezy this afternoon, gusts of around 15 to 25 mph, as a weak trough passes over central Montana.
201 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024 - Cooler and drier conditions through Saturday.
Wyoming remains on the eastern edge of the ridge across the western CONUS through the weekend, keeping conditions warm, mostly dry, and breezy.
(This evening through Saturday) Early this afternoon, a cold front is located across central portions of the area, from northern Tom Green county to Brown County. On Saturday, the aforementioned weak cold front will be stalled somewhere across our southern counties. Highs on Saturday will be in the low to mid 90s.
Deep layer troughing will remain across the eastern two-thirds of the CONUS this weekend, deepening slightly as a ridge of high pressure aloft propagates east. High pressure at the surface continues to move in from the northwest tonight and parks itself across the Ohio Valley through the weekend. Dry weather and cooler temperatures are expected this weekend with highs in the mid to upper 80's and lows in the 60's. The eastward progression of the ridge aloft will allow Beryl to begin to advance poleward in an h50 weakness across eastern Texas and into the Mississippi Valley.
Pressure gradients tightened overnight resulting in these increased breezes, especially just downwind of the higher terrain. South of the rim is warmer though. The very strong ridge continues to be centered over northern California today, and will slowly drift southeast closer to Arizona over the next few days and result in an extended heat wave for the state.
150 PM EDT Fri Jul 5 2024 Showers and thunderstorms can be expected ahead of cold front that passes through the area late in the day into early evening. The area looks to dry out over the weekend as high pressure builds across the Ohio Valley.
1242 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024 - Cooler and drier conditions through Saturday.
Thereafter, expect strong upper ridging to take hold across the western CONUS leading to dry and hot weather conditions extending their reach into Northeast Montana.
Lows tonight will still be warm in the lower to mid 70s but cooler than this morning. Saturday with upper ridge to the south and upper trough moving in temperatures will be cooler in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Lower dew points will be observed by all with the numbers in the mid to upper 60s so heat index values will only be in the lower to mid 90s.
Mid/upper level low pressure over the western Atlantic lifts northward this weekend.
1149 AM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024 (Today and tonight) Cooler temperatures expected across the area today, as a weak cold front moves through. Farther south, highs will range from the low to mid 90s across the Concho Valley and Heartland, and in the upper 90s along the I-10 corridor. Lows tonight are expected to be in the lower 70s.
WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO Hot conditions are expected today with highs 7 to 12 degrees warmer than yesterday for the valleys, mountains, and inland Orange County; 3 to 7 degrees warmer than yesterday for the deserts; and 2 to 5 degrees warmer along the coast. Another moisture surge made it into the lower deserts this morning with dew points at 9 AM in the 60s to locally the low 70s. Dew points for Thermal and Palm Springs are running a few degrees lower than this time yesterday, so a few additional degrees of warming in the low deserts compared to yesterday does seem plausible.
This should allow for temperatures to drop steadily into the low to mid-70s across northern AL. Some cooler pockets in Lincoln, Moore, and Franklin, TN counties may even drop below 70 by day break, with help from the cold front.
Warm and dry conditions continue to be the highlight of the short term forecast. Water vapor satellite imagery shows a high pressure system sitting just west of the California/Oregon coast early this afternoon resulting in a dry northwesterly flow pattern in our neck of the woods.
Broad upper level troughing in place across the region with a persistence pattern of diurnal convection currently ongoing.
Saturday will be dry with temperatures slightly below normal as high pressure quickly moves through the Midwest.
Meanwhile, ridging in the western North Atlantic will remain in place.
The rain and cloud cover has also led to some cooler temperatures, especially across some portions of the fa where temperatures are currently in the 60s and 70s.
Last of the low level WAA band of showers and storms is exiting our NW Illinois counties early this morning. Otherwise, focus for later today will shift to an upper level low on water vapor imagery over Minnesota. As this low tracks eastward today it will usher in a surface cold front. The greatest duration is anticipated across our southern counties pushing highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s, while the lowest duration far north/west should limit highs there to around 70 or the lower 70s. A few mid 50s are possible portions of NE Iowa, with any duration of BL decoupling and clear skies being in closer proximity to surface ridging.
Temperatures will be "cooler" in the upper-80s to low-90s, but dewpoints will be lower, leading to more tolerable afternoon humidity.
609 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024 - Cooler and drier conditions through Saturday.
(Tonight) Most of the showers and storms have dissipated this evening with lingering isolated activity forming just along a surface cold front currently moving through the area from northwest to southeast.
1006 PM EDT Fri Jul 5 2024 High pressure offshore will continue to keep muggy conditions around through tonight.
WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO Temperatures this afternoon are running warmer than yesterday afternoon for most places away from the coast. The most noticeable rise has been in the Inland Empire where temperatures are 7 to 15 degrees warmer than yesterday afternoon. Another noticeable change from yesterday is in the low deserts where the shallow moisture surge does not seem to be hindering the temperature rise.
Otherwise, expect similar conditions to last night with temperatures falling slowly but bottoming out in the mid to potentially upper 70s as a southwesterly low level jet remains over the area ahead of a cold front to the NW of the area, moving into the TN Valley. Main upper trough axis will continue across the middle of the country through the weekend, with some upper ridging still being indicated across the forecast area.
937 PM EDT Fri Jul 5 2024 The area looks to dry out over the weekend as high pressure builds across the Ohio Valley.
729 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024 (This evening through Saturday) Temperatures at 18Z ranged from the mid 60s in the rain cooled air in the southwest and southern parts of our forecast area, while the highest temperature that can be found was 83 in Enid. In other words, enjoy the cooler temperatures. Overnight, the lows will drop to the mid 60s areawide before rebounding to near 90 degrees for the high temperatures on Saturday.
Currently - The combination of a weak ridge across the Florida Peninsula and a sloppy low northeast of the Bahamas has resulted in light breezes across the Keys. Fairly sharp and small scale ridging is in place over the Florida region. Short Term Update - Atlantic ridging will remain across the Florida Peninsula while the low near the Bahamas shifts a bit further westward across the northern Bahamas. Expect overnight lows in the lower to mid 80s with dew points remaining in the upper 70s. A ridge across Florida and a weak low northeast of the Bahamas has resulted in a weak pressure gradient across the Keys.
740 PM EDT Fri Jul 5 2024 The area looks to dry out over the weekend as high pressure builds across the Ohio Valley.
Temperatures as of 10 PM are in the upper 70s to low 80s with dew points in the low to mid 70s. Temperatures tonight will be in the low to mid 70s.
624 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024 (This evening through Saturday) Early this afternoon, a cold front is located across central portions of the area, from northern Tom Green county to Brown County. On Saturday, the aforementioned weak cold front will be stalled somewhere across our southern counties. Highs on Saturday will be in the low to mid 90s.
An MCS has developed over northern Sonora in Mexico, but clockwise flow around the high centered over northern California will prevent any moisture associated with the MCS from moving into the area. Temperatures will be a bit cooler tonight as compared to last night at most places. Pressure gradients tightened overnight resulting in these increased breezes, especially just downwind of the higher terrain. South of the rim is warmer though. The very strong ridge continues to be centered over northern California today, and will slowly drift southeast closer to Arizona over the next few days and result in an extended heat wave for the state. A trough moving down through the Rockies will tighten gradients again Sunday across the region with gusty northwest winds 15-20 mph and gusts 25-30 mph expected.
127 AM MDT Sat Jul 6 2024 NW flow aloft remains over the region as a strong ridge has set up shop along the Pacific coast.
Warm and dry conditions continue to be the highlight of the short term forecast. Water vapor satellite imagery shows a high pressure system sitting just west of the California/Oregon coast early this afternoon resulting in a dry northwesterly flow pattern in our neck of the woods. On Sunday the expansive high pressure out west centers over the CA/NV state line, which is where the hottest temperatures will occur. Meanwhile a low pressure system will be tracking over the Northern Plains leaving us under the gradient.
(Today) Showers across the region have come to an end early this morning as a cold front continues to push southeast through the local area. High pressure will become the bigger influence in local weather today, as an upper low lifts north through the Great Lakes region and upper troughing broadens out over the Midwest. Although afternoon highs will still reach the low 90s today, lower dewpoints will thankfully keep heat index values below 100 degrees, topping out in the mid to upper 90s.
A trough digging across the central Plains will support thunderstorm development this afternoon and evening over portions of Iowa and Nebraska, with these storms moving eastward into the forecast area late tonight and Sunday morning.
(Saturday through Sunday) High pressure is back across our Four-States with a 1017mb core in KN drifting toward MO before lunchtime. Light NW winds are edging our dew points down into the lower 70s, but the real drier air is having a tough time with lots of calm over E OK, so we are just not seeing much advection at this time. Overnight lows will be in the lower 70s on average and then highs tomorrow will be warmer with less cloudiness early, but more a chance for rainfall with coverage unfolding as our front lifts back northward Sunday.
320 AM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024 A cold front continues crossing this morning, and high pressure brings dry weather the balance of the weekend.
(Today through Sunday) A gentle split flow is occurring over the area this morning from the interaction between the upper outflow from Beryl and an upper trough to the north.
(Today) Dry conditions anticipated for today, with continued decrease in clouds resulting in high temps a bit warmer compared to yesterday.
1247 AM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024 (This evening through Sunday) A broad trof of low pressure will persist across the central section of the US through the period. The cold front that pushed thru Arkansas will stall out south of the state, and a few lingering showers and thunderstorms may occur in the vicinity of the front overnight into tomorrow, possibly affecting the southernmost parts of the forecast area. Saturday should bring pleasant weather to the bulk of the forecast area, as high pressure settles into the area. The front will begin moving back to the north as a warm front on Sunday, and showers and thunderstorms will be possible across the southern half of the area by Sunday afternoon.
(Today through Sunday) An upper level trough axis extends from the Great Lakes to west TX this morning. A cold front stretches across the northern part of our CWA from LaGrange to San Antonio to Rocksprings. The highest POPs will be from the eastern Edwards Plateau to the eastern Coastal Plains this afternoon. This high moisture and slow storm motion may allow for locally heavy rain.
Northwest flow will persist on Sunday as the ridge over the Pacific approaches the Northern Rockies.
Look for a stronger spike upward in temperature this afternoon as the upper level ridge builds for most of the day. At the very end of the afternoon, low pressure moving through southern Canada will increase the wind and bring a few clouds around 600mb/14000ft MSL during the early evening. With the arrival of some cooler air on the west side of the low as it moves eastward, Sun should be actually a little cooler and more stable, even as clouds diminish during the morning.
(Tonight through Sunday Night) The cold front is dropping down well in the wake of all our wonderful heat dispersing rainfall.
Northwest flow continued to keep a cooler and drier airmass in place for this afternoon. High temperatures were forecast in the low to mid 80s, slightly below average for this time of the year. Most models indicate that the higher severe wind threat will be south and west of a line from Concordia to Salina, where convergence along the boundary is stronger. Multiple more waves rounding the base of the trough will continue into Sunday, and frequent thunderstorms are likely during the day.
The lower levels of the atmosphere will be dry with dewpoints in the 30s for many areas. Sunday looks to be calmer with clear skies for most as upper ridging to the west keeps sliding to the west putting us in rising heights. Torgerson Upper level ridging will gradually build into the region from the west through the week bringing dry conditions and warm to hot temperatures.
1159 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024 - Cooler and drier conditions through Saturday.
Small hail is possible just due to cooler air aloft, but overall storms will remain below severe limits.
An extremely broad trough is currently stretching over the CONUS with the only forcing to speak of being an upper level jet in eastern Canada with weak high pressure holding over the center of the country.
123 AM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024 (Tonight) Most of the showers and storms have dissipated this evening with lingering isolated activity forming just along a surface cold front currently moving through the area from northwest to southeast. (Saturday through Sunday Night) An upper level trough is currently making its way through the Ohio Valley.
More Storms and Rain on Saturday: The aforementioned cold front will stall out somewhere near the Interstate 85 Corridor on Saturday.
232 AM MDT Sat Jul 6 2024 Cooler than average temperatures persist for most areas through Sunday.
1254 AM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024 (This evening through Saturday) Early this afternoon, a cold front is located across central portions of the area, from northern Tom Green county to Brown County. On Saturday, the aforementioned weak cold front will be stalled somewhere across our southern counties. Highs on Saturday will be in the low to mid 90s.
Otherwise, expect similar conditions to last night with temperatures falling slowly but bottoming out in the mid to potentially upper 70s as a southwesterly low level jet remains over the area ahead of a cold front to the NW of the area, moving into the TN Valley. Main upper trough axis will continue across the middle of the country through the weekend, with some upper ridging still being indicated across the forecast area. Earlier convection and clouds would keep slightly cooler readings, while later convection and more sunshine will more than likely cause readings to rise to advisory criteria. Sunday will be slightly cooler with more clouds, and this will keep heat index readings between 95 to 105 degrees.
(Today through Sunday) A weak front associated with the trough over the region will move south today through 1/2 to 2/3 of the area. As for rain coverage look for the highest chances to be in the south and southeast ahead of the weak front.
- Cooler temperatures and scattered storms are possible early Sunday morning until late afternoon across the region.
High pressure surface and aloft will hold over the region through the period. with the center of the U/L ridge over the forecast area through the weekend. High pressure will hold over the waters through the period with winds below cautionary levels each day.
157 AM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024 The area looks to dry out over the weekend as high pressure builds across the Ohio Valley.
Discussion: In the upper levels, a broad trough remains over the Great Plains and the Midwest. At the surface, a cold front will move through the region early this morning, weak high pressure will move in behind it.
130 AM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024 - The low pressure system lingers over the Great Lakes today keeping a chance of showers and thunderstorms in the forecast. With dewpoints still well into the low to mid 60s and calm winds expected overnight, confidence is growing that we will see haze develop. An additional Short wave impulse pivoting around the upper trough and entrance region upper jet support will keep some focused ascent across the Saginaw Valley and points north this evening. The upper low will transition to an open wave as it exits to the northeast on Saturday. Reasonable model agreement indicates a trailing trough axis advancing from northeast Lower Mi into the Saginaw Valley/thumb regions by late afternoon. Low level thermal profiles will be cooler tomorrow (925mb temps a few degrees cooler).
High pressure will settle into the western CONUS this week, resulting in a gradual rise in temperatures through the remainder of the forecast period.
A stalled cold front will stay to our west through the day, enhancing coverage of afternoon/evening convection near and west of I-95. Highlights: *Bit cooler with above normal rain chances inland *No significant impacts expected Confidence: *Moderate Details: A stalled front inland along with plentiful moisture and some upper forcing will lead to higher than normal rain chances inland with coastal areas likely to miss out on most of the rain given the onshore flow/sea breeze.
1049 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024 (This evening through Saturday) Temperatures at 18Z ranged from the mid 60s in the rain cooled air in the southwest and southern parts of our forecast area, while the highest temperature that can be found was 83 in Enid. In other words, enjoy the cooler temperatures. Overnight, the lows will drop to the mid 60s areawide before rebounding to near 90 degrees for the high temperatures on Saturday.
Easterly winds will advect in modified air keeping temperatures below normal for another day though temps will be a few degrees warmer than yesterday. Sunday winds become south to southwesterly ahead of a cold front expected to arrive Sunday night.
(Rest of Today) Mostly sunny skies will persist today as a surface weak cold front stalls to our south over Central Alabama. Otherwise, temperatures will climb back into the low to mid 90s this afternoon with the notable difference of dew points in the mid 60s and a light wind from the north, helping it feel a little better outside than it has previously this week.
A strong high pressure system remains in place for today, centered over northern California.
619 AM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024 (Today through Sunday) An upper level trough axis extends from the Great Lakes to west TX this morning. A cold front stretches across the northern part of our CWA from LaGrange to San Antonio to Rocksprings. The highest POPs will be from the eastern Edwards Plateau to the eastern Coastal Plains this afternoon. This high moisture and slow storm motion may allow for locally heavy rain.
A few showers and storms could develop west of I-95 as the sea breeze moves inland, but the highest chances will be west of Orlando, closest to the sea breeze collision late this afternoon. Afternoon high temperatures themselves are forecast in the lower to mid-90s.
Cooler today, with isolated to scattered convection possible Low level flow will be from the east/southeast today, which will result in cooler temperatures across the area. In fact, temperatures today will be near or slightly below normal for this time of year, with afternoon highs mainly in the lower 90s, although a few mid 90s will occur across the Concho Valley. Lows tonight will be in the lower 70s.
618 AM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024 (Today through Sunday) A weak front associated with the trough over the region will move south today through 1/2 to 2/3 of the area. As for rain coverage look for the highest chances to be in the south and southeast ahead of the weak front.
This activity is expected to slide east into Iowa this evening on the nose of the low level jet.
Still unconvinced about severe potential this afternoon but after a few funnel reports each of the last few days and similar conditions today with the upper low won't rule anything out quite yet. Small hail is possible just due to cooler air aloft, but overall storms will remain below severe limits.
700 AM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024 A cold front exits this morning, and high pressure brings dry weather for the balance of the weekend.