Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Currently - A surface Atlantic pressure ridge, stretching westward across the Florida Keys is being suppressed by a frontal system advancing southeastward through the southeast. This stabilization has halted any shower formation across the broader area despite the elevated synoptic inversion and surface dew points in the lower 70s. Deep layered ridging across our area will shift eastwards into the Atlantic through this period. A pressure ridge across Keys waters will push southeastward through the overnight period as a cold front advances southeastward through the Gulf of Mexico.
554 PM CDT Tue Apr 2 2024 (This evening through Wednesday) As the trough axis from the strong upper low over the Great Lakes finally exits out of the region tonight, our area will start to enter a more broad upper level ridging regime. With continued, albeit weakening, cold air advection behind the cold front from this morning, temperatures overnight tonight will fall into the upper 30s the low 40s. This may allow some of our notorious cold spots and low lying areas, such as river valleys, drop even further, potentially approaching freezing levels (though this is not expected to be widespread).
557 PM CDT Tue Apr 2 2024 (Tonight) As an upper level trough moves eastward through the Mississippi Valley this evening, chances for severe storms throughout northern AL and southern middle TN are forecast to increase. Heading into the late afternoon and evening hours, the vorticity advection and height falls coupled with the upper level trough will support synoptic forcing for lift. Due to a tight sfc pressure gradient behind the front as high pressure filters in, a gradient (non-thunderstorm) wind threat will also be occurring in addition to the severe threat.
629 PM CDT Tue Apr 2 2024 (Tonight through Wednesday night) Key Messages: - Elevated Fire Weather Conditions across much of the region today - Small Craft Advisory in Effect through tomorrow morning There's currently a mid-level low over northern Minnesota with a trough extending across the Plains and down to west Texas. Afternoon temperatures today will top out in the 80s across the region and looks to be about 5 degrees cooler tomorrow. Overnight lows tonight and tomorrow night will bottom out in the low to mid 50s.
620 PM CDT Tue Apr 2 2024 The weather is fairly quiet through the rest of this week, with seasonable days and seasonable or even cooler than seasonable nights thanks to some dry air in place early this week.
Ceilings are expected to begin lifting from west to east early this morning as a cold front moves through the region with VFR conditions persisting area-wide by early this afternoon.
1239 AM CDT Wed Apr 3 2024 (Tonight through Wednesday night) A cold front moved through this morning, producing breezy to windy and gusty northwest winds. Otherwise, expect high pressure to spread over the area in the short term. Look for mostly clear to clear skies with lighter winds shifting to southeast and south Wednesday night as high pressure shifts east and upstream ridging drifts east toward Texas. Look for low temps tonight from the 50s to lower 60s, mainly lower 80s for inland high temps on Wednesday, and slightly cooler lower to mid 50s Wednesday night.
1151 PM CDT Tue Apr 2 2024 - Additional storm development remains possible through the afternoon, mainly east of the Mississippi River and in far southeast SEMO, as the cold front passes.
A closed upper low moves eastward through the southern Great Lakes region with broad upper troughing extending south through the Mississippi River Valley. On the surface, an area of low pressure spins over the central Great Lakes. An occluded front extends from this low to a triple point low over the mid-Atlantic states. The associated cold front extends southward along the eastern seaboard and will move across the Florida peninsula today. Showers and storms ahead of and in the vicinity of this cold front will move into the Nature Coast during the morning hours and move southeast through the day.
1043 PM CDT Tue Apr 2 2024 (This evening through Wednesday night) Upper trough late this afternoon extended from the western Great Lakes to west Texas, with upper ridging along both the Atlantic and Pacific coasts. At the surface, a cold front extended from near Memphis to near Lake Charles. There was an area of comparatively drier air over about the northwest third of the CWA at 3 PM where dew points were in the mid 60s, which could be inhibiting convection a bit, with dew points in the lower 70s elsewhere.
The axis of a high pressure ridge will be directly overhead for Wednesday afternoon resulting in light winds, mostly clear skies, and mild temperatures. Daytime temperatures on Wednesday are forecast to be the warmest of the week with 60s in the High Country and 70s into the lower valleys.
Upper low continues to consolidate and deepen as it moves toward the Great Lakes. Trends will need to be closely watched and an upgrade to a High Wind Warning if confidence increases in the higher-end scenarios playing out.
Surface analysis depicts high pressure retreating eastward over the Atlantic, with a cold front extending from strong low pressure over Lake Michigan southward to the Louisiana delta and across the central Gulf of Mexico. Aloft, an intense closed low is centered over northern Illinois, with a strong trough extending southward through the Mississippi Valley. MIMIC-TPW satellite imagery shows a fairly dry airmass across our region, but a swath of PWs up to 2 inches ahead of and along the advancing cold front over the northern and central Gulf. Combined with dewpoints in the mid 70s, we expect afternoon heat indices to reach the lower to mid 90s.
1043 PM CDT Tue Apr 2 2024 (Tonight through Wednesday night) Key Messages: - Elevated Fire Weather Conditions across much of the region today - Small Craft Advisory in Effect through tomorrow morning There's currently a mid-level low over northern Minnesota with a trough extending across the Plains and down to west Texas. Afternoon temperatures today will top out in the 80s across the region and looks to be about 5 degrees cooler tomorrow. Overnight lows tonight and tomorrow night will bottom out in the low to mid 50s.
558 PM MDT Sat Jul 19 2025 - Breezy conditions continue for the next few days - Critical fire weather conditions again Sunday and beyond - Potential for isolated dry thunderstorms early on in the week Gusty winds have developed as forecast due to the cold front crossing central and eastern Idaho. We are hitting the low end of LAKE WIND ADVISORY territory for American Falls, and will leave that in place through 8pm. We do have some isolated dry storms possible along the Montana border, but that could be a more widespread issue based on what the higher resolution models are showing.
Upper-level heights increase heading into the new week as broad high pressure builds over the Plains.
An upper level trough slides south over the region by early Sunday maintaining onshore low level flow and abundant clouds.
632 PM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025 Upper level ridging will remain predominant over the region this coming week, resulting in subsidence and gradually warming temperatures throughout the forecast period.
558 PM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025 - While isolated showers and storms are expected this afternoon, high-pressure system will remain over the region, leading to a more stable and scorching pattern.
Though moisture has been adequate for convective initiation off the higher terrain across far southern Arizona, there has been a clear ceiling on thunderstorm maturity given the weak instability field.
743 PM EDT Sat Jul 19 2025 Broad upper level ridging extends over Florida and the southeast U. On the surface, high pressure northeast of the Bahamas ridges westward over Florida. This high pressure will bring in some slightly drier air as well, which will limit rain and storm coverage through the weekend.
Possible flooding south of I-70 - High pressure keeping a dry Mon and Tue in place ---------------------------------------------------------------- Sufficient CAPE and 30-40 knots of effective shear will support a marginal risk across the region, primarily for damaging wind.
Upper-level heights increase heading into the new week as broad high pressure builds over the Plains. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will develop over the higher terrain between 18Z and 00Z capable of producing outflow winds gusting over 30-40kts.
Upper ridging continues to settle in over the area with light flow aloft. This ridging gradually migrates poleward allowing for increasing northeasterly to easterly flow aloft to become established by mid week. Given the aforementioned ridging building in, rain chances remain quite low today.
A surface Atlantic ridge stretching westward across the Florida Peninsula is driving gentle easterly breezes across the Keys this evening. This along with very limited CAPE through the lower levels has contributed to no shower activity near the island chain and a smattering over the outer Florida Straits. Expect overnight lows to settle in the lower 80s with dew points remaining in the mid 70s. Surface ridging will remain across the Florida Peninsula through the overnight period.
An upper-level ridge looks to remain in place across the Central US, supporting broad subsidence across the area.
- Temperatures trend cooler through the first half of the upcoming work week before moderating thereafter.
154 AM EDT Sun Jul 20 2025 Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible today as a cold front pushes through the region.
1046 PM MDT Sat Jul 19 2025 - Breezy conditions continue for the next few days - Critical fire weather conditions again Sunday and beyond - Potential for isolated dry thunderstorms early on in the week Gusty winds have developed as forecast due to the cold front crossing central and eastern Idaho. We are hitting the low end of LAKE WIND ADVISORY territory for American Falls, and will leave that in place through 8pm. We do have some isolated dry storms possible along the Montana border, but that could be a more widespread issue based on what the higher resolution models are showing.
Updated at 202 AM CDT Sun Jul 20 2025 - Temperatures continue to warm up today as upper- level ridging dominates over our region.
(Today) Evening upper air analysis indicates east-west elongated mid to upper level ridging centered over OK and AR. Lee side low pressure over the High Plains at the surface is maintaining a southerly breeze over the region tonight, and expect another day of gusty south to southwest winds on Sunday. Lacy (Tonight through Saturday) Ridging aloft is expected to maintain hot and dry weather for this upcoming week.
***From Previous Discussion*** Monsoonal moisture peaked yesterday and mid-level southerly flow has subsided as the low to the south travels to the east. Otherwise, a weak troughing pattern will yield quiet weather over the next several days, with temperatures mostly below normal and trending slightly downward each day.
Discussion: In the upper levels, a ridge is over the Southeast and a trough is over the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic. Southwest Virginia may get training showers/storms this evening or overnight as development along the boundary moves southeast, riding the ridge. Coverage of showers and storms will be more isolated south of I-40 closer to the ridge and more scattered north of I-40 closer to the surface boundary.
A broad mid level high pressure system is still forecast to move west across the northern gulf and push an inverted trough, currently over Central and South Texas, out of the area.
An upper level low will stay rather stationary but weaken further into tomorrow.
The downward trend in moisture continues as the low over southern California draws dry air into the region.
An upper-level ridge looks to remain in placeacross the Central US, supporting broad subsidence across the area.
253 AM EDT Sun Jul 20 2025 Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible today as a cold front pushes through the region.
234 AM EDT Sun Jul 20 2025 Offshore high pressure will remain in control today.
An upper level high remains centered over the Gulf Coast. A weak upper low/ inverted trough over central Texas will only drift a little north/northwest today and tonight. Expect highs today to be similar to yesterday, perhaps a degree or two warmer in some places. For tonight, expect overnight lows to be mostly in the lower to mid 70s across our area.
This was observed today with most dewpoints mixing out into the low 70s instead of the mid to upper 70s the guidance was forecasting.
High pressure remains in place today, bringing another warm day to the interior. High temperatures are forecast to be a few degrees cooler than Saturday, with most interior valleys seeing high 80's to 90's.
Ridging will remain overhead with dry air aloft. As we start our work week ridging will start to move away as we see a more typical seabreeze pattern for the afternoon and evening hours.
As high pressure surface and aloft continue to strengthen over the region, the chance for rain will become more limited and temperatures will top out a degree or two warmer. Normal afternoon highs run in the lower 90s. The high temperatures will combine with the high humidity to result in heat index values between 105 and 110 especially over the wester half of the CWA where a Heat Advisory remains in effect until this evening.
541 AM CDT Sun Jul 20 2025 (Today) High pressure will maintain its dominance over the TN Valley and southeastern CONUS through the day today. The building high pressure will allow temps to increase to the high 80s and low 90s this afternoon and limit rain and storm chances to below 30%. This would limit high temperatures to the low 90s and keep apparent temperatures below Heat Advisory criteria.
An area of low pressure aloft across the Pacific Northwest will expand south through mid week and that will result in a cooling trend, most notably across the interior areas where high temperatures have been in the lower 100s but will drop into the low to mid 90s most of the week with typical afternoon gusty winds.
645 AM EDT Sun Jul 20 2025 Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible today as a cold front pushes through the region.
600 AM CDT Sun Jul 20 2025 (Today through Monday) We'll be back into a warming trend today into tomorrow as we'll be on the northern or northeastern periphery of a ridge that will set up in earnest off to our northwest by midweek. Highs this afternoon are forecast to be in the low 90s north to mid 90s in southern areas.
725 AM CDT Sun Jul 20 2025 Upper ridging continues to settle in over the area with light flow aloft. This ridging gradually migrates poleward allowing for increasing northeasterly to easterly flow aloft to become established by mid week. Given the aforementioned ridging building in, rain chances remain quite low today.
(Today) Evening upper air analysis indicates east-west elongated mid to upper level ridging centered over OK and AR. Lee side low pressure over the High Plains at the surface is maintaining a southerly breeze over the region tonight, and expect another day of gusty south to southwest winds on Sunday.
The upper low over SoCal will gradually evolve into an open wave through Monday as a low/trough over the Pacific Northwest deepens. Extensive low pressure troughing will dominate the pattern this week, continuing the drying trend as monsoonal moisture is displaced to the east with the sub-tropical high. This will continue to keep daytime high temperatures near or below seasonal averages for all areas, including the lower deserts. SCT cumulus based around 10kft will develop over the ridges 19-02Z. Slight chance (10% probability) SHRA over mtn ridges 22-01Z.
345 AM PDT Sun Jul 20 2025 Seasonable temperatures continue through early this week, with a slight chance (10-20%) for showers from tonight into Monday as a weak upper low moves across the region.
With a large subtropical ridge and weak steering currents dominating the regional environment, this feature is forecast to linger through Sunday north of the Austin area.
In the upper levels, ridging can be seen drifting westward towards our area. The upper level high will be a decently strong one, allowing for an in increase temperatures and heat indices. Temperatures on Sunday are forecast to be in the low to mid 90s for the entire area.
, an alternative from the synoptic models pushes this moisture to the southeast of the CWA into New Mexico and southeastern Colorado as the trough from the Pacific Northwest eases south over the Western States. With the increased clouds and shower activity, temperatures will be slightly cooler tomorrow. Upper-level heights increase heading into the new week as broad high pressure builds over the Plains. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will develop over the higher terrain between 18Z and 00Z capable of producing outflow winds gusting over 30-40kts.
Not much changes as we get into Monday although H5 heights are a tad lower with an upper trough centered well north of the area.
643 AM EDT Sun Jul 20 2025 The high heat and humidity continues into Monday, with Heat Advisory conditions possible Monday.
/NEW/ Update: Mid level cloud cover has increased a bit overnight, particularly across Central TX in association with our slow moving upper low. Temperatures will fall through the lower 80s and into the upper 70s by morning. The influence of an expanding upper ridge will continue to be felt into the upcoming week as high temperatures nudge upward a degree or so Sunday and again Monday.
(Tonight through Monday Night) The upper level ridge will start to build over us on Sunday. This will bring warming temperatures with them pushing back into the low to mid 90s. We will still be on the northern edge of the upper level ridge with vort maxes spinning around it. Mainly dry conditions Sunday night with warm lows in the low to mid 70s. The upper level ridge will start to amplify on Monday keeping highs in the low to mid 90s. The upper level ridge will be set up just to our west and we will once again see vort maxes spin around it.
An upper-level trough will track south over the area today with low-level onshore flow.
A move amplified upper trough has moved onshore across the Pacific Northwest. An amplified upper trough was moving east across northern New England. A broad upper ridge extended from the southeast US, westward across the southern Plains into NM. The mid level clouds should scatter out and afternoon insolation combined with southerly winds will help highs to reach the lower to mid 90s along the NE border with mid to upper 90s across the southern half of the CWA. Surface dewpoints will probably remain in the lower 70s along and south of I-70 causing heat indices of 104 to 108 degrees.
(Today and tonight) With upper ridge firmly in control and veered low level flow strengthening low level thermal ridge over Kansas and Oklahoma could see a degree or two higher afternoon highs across the area this afternoon.
High pressure ridging across Florida will produce low rain chances today, but the temps will be a little on the hot side once again. High pressure ridging across Florida and into the eastern gulf waters will produce light winds 10 knots or less, seas 2 feet or less and low rain and storm chances (20-30 percent) over the area today.
As high pressure surface and aloft continue to strengthen over the region, the chance for rain will become more limited and temperatures will top out a degree or two warmer. Normal afternoon highs run in the lower 90s. The high temperatures will combine with the high humidity to result in heat index values between 105 and 110 especially over the western half of the CWA where a Heat Advisory remains in effect until this evening.
519 AM CDT Sun Jul 20 2025 Updated at 518 AM CDT Sun Jul 20 2025 - Temperatures continue to warm up today as upper- level ridging dominates over our region. (Today through Monday afternoon) WV imagery this morning shows the upper ridge centered over the Gulf Coast states, the western influence of which extends all the way to West Texas and Southeast New Mexico. A weakness in the ridge persists over the eastern half of Texas, but this doesn't look to affect matters here very much.
726 AM EDT Sun Jul 20 2025 The high heat and humidity continues into Monday, with Heat Advisory conditions possible Monday.
1218 PM CDT Sun Jul 20 2025 Updated at 1212 PM CDT Sun Jul 20 2025 - Temperatures continue to warm up today as upper- level ridging dominates over our region. (Today through Monday afternoon) WV imagery this morning shows the upper ridge centered over the Gulf Coast states, the western influence of which extends all the way to West Texas and Southeast New Mexico. A weakness in the ridge persists over the eastern half of Texas, but this doesn't look to affect matters here very much.
Much cooler and drier air returns tonight and continues through early this upcoming week.
Today will be another hot one, with temperatures in the low to mid 90s in areas west of the Cumberland Plateau, and mid 80s to low 90s on the plateau itself.
A warming trend will develop through mid week as high pressure builds into the region. Lows tonight will range from the mid 60s in the far north to the lower 70s in the south. Some drier/cooler air will try to advect in from the northeast with highs on Monday mostly in the lower 80s.
The influence of upper-level ridging will maintain hot and largely dry conditions across Southeast TX this afternoon and evening. As we head towards the end of the week, upper ridging is forecast to weaken, paving the way for less stable conditions and increasing rain and storm chances.
(Rest of today and tonight) A 594 dam mid-level ridge continues to dominate the weather across the Southern Plains today.
Current water vapor satellite and 500mb RAP analysis shows a trough extending west off of an upper level low currently over British Columbia/Alberta, this is the feature that will bring unsettled weather overnight tonight and into tomorrow. This trough will continue to dig towards our area through the day, sending a cold front out ahead of it. This cold front will make it to eastern Oregon a hour or so after midnight tonight. Model guidance shows a good plume of Pacific moisture making into eastern Oregon ahead of the front, this moisture gets cutoff as the cold front moves east.
Updated at 1239 PM CDT Sun Jul 20 2025 - Low to medium (10-50%) rain/storm chances are forecast from the western Permian Basin to the higher elevations west of the Pecos River this afternoon and evening. This is likely due to a combination of highs a couple of degrees hotter than yesterday allowing us to hit the convective temperature and a weakness in the upper level ridge increasing instability slightly. An upper low currently over Southeast Texas will drift west overnight and into West Texas Monday.
(This evening through Monday) A 500mb ridge across the southeast United States extending westward across the state of Texas will continue to provide subsidence across west central Texas tonight into Monday. (Monday night through next Sunday) Upper level ridge shifting into the Mississippi Valley will be the dominant weather maker this week.
Key messages: - July heat and humidity maintains - Low rain and thunderstorm chances returning by the weekend across the Coastal Plains (Tonight through Monday night) A weak 500 mb low over the region in tandem with a TUTT (Tropical Upper Tropospheric Trough) around the 200 mb level as seen on upper level water vapor imagery near the coast will continue to contribute mid to high level clouds across the region from today into Monday. The overnight lows remain warm and humid with some low-level stratus developing in addition to the higher level cloud cover.