Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Between a cutoff circulation over the southern plains and intense energy entering the Pacific NW, this high pressure system will elongate and flatten over the next 24 hours, albeit with midtropospheric heights and temperatures continuing to increase modestly. A large, but semi-flat subtropical ridge will stay positioned across our region or at least just to our south, as it will remain the main influence for quiet weather conditions throughout the week.
(Through Saturday) Most of the activity early this morning remains sub-severe with the warm front draped across north Texas and very little instability north of the boundary. 5"/hour with mostly minor nuisance flooding of low-lying roadways and areas and with the higher PWATs pushing eastward, the rainfall rates this morning will continue to be around or less than 0. By this afternoon, the upper low will be approaching Oklahoma with increased lift in the mid-levels. However, some of the higher resolution models are hinting at scattered convection developing during the afternoon hours across areas that remain rain free Saturday morning (most likely western north Texas into portions of southern and central Oklahoma).
Today & Sunday: A large and deep low pressure system centered over western Oklahoma is set to move towards the region with a substantial frontal boundary associated with it. This frontal boundary will spark widespread convection out ahead of this low, through Louisiana in the afternoon hours before petering out by the time it gets to the Mississippi around early afternoon. While the low pulls off to the north/east we will see gusty winds behind up to 20kts until sunset Sunday.
Broad upper level low continues to pinwheel across the Southern Plains. Trough over the Gulf of Alaska this morning is expected to build into the Pacific NW this weekend.
351 AM CDT Sat Oct 25 2025 - Light showers and cloudy skies remain in place today with the highest chances for showers generally along and south of I-70.
346 AM EDT Sat Oct 25 2025 -High pressure returns quiet and dry weather this weekend.
- Rain chances and cooler conditions will return starting late Sunday and continue through midweek. High temperatures will climb to the low to mid 70s across most of the area today, and will only be a few degrees cooler on Saturday. Tonight's lows will be pretty similar to slightly warmer than what we saw this morning, generally dropping to the low to mid 40s across north GA, and mid to upper 40s across central GA.
1143 PM MDT Fri Oct 24 2025 - Scattered convective showers this afternoon and early evening mainly favoring the higher terrain.
Some freezing/subfreezing temps are expected by daybreak, particularly in central OH and the lower Scioto Vly into NE KY. Flow aloft will gradually become a bit more zonal as a S/W pivots SE into the Great Lakes region with a more well-defined closed low meandering about the south-central plains. The S/W moving into the nrn OH Vly by tonight will provide a reinforcing shot of LL dry air, which will help shunt the higher PW air off to our S into the day Sunday.
(Today and tonight) An upper low continues to track southward and is currently centered over the far southern Panhandle. A broad trough moving over the Pacific Northwest will steer the low on a more northeasterly track through the day today. Any showers or thunderstorms should move out by the evening hours with skies clearing overnight into Sunday in the wake of the low as westerly surface winds develop.
1245 AM EDT Sat Oct 25 2025 Dry with high pressure through Sunday. The location of an upper level low will determine the weather for the next work week, but models are not in disagreement.
246 AM EDT Sat Oct 25 2025 High pressure will continue to impact the region through Sunday with rain-free conditions.
646 AM EDT Sat Oct 25 2025 -High pressure returns quiet and dry weather this weekend.
521 AM EDT Sat Oct 25 2025 Dry with high pressure through Sunday. The location of an upper level low will determine the weather for the next work week, but models are not in disagreement.
- Above normal temperatures for late October today (Forecast highs in the 60s to around 70, with normal values in the lower 50s).
629 AM EDT Sat Oct 25 2025 High pressure will continue to impact the region through Sunday with rain-free conditions.
1016 AM EDT Sat Oct 25 2025 High pressure will build southeastward from the Great Lakes this afternoon before shifting north into Canada Sunday. Low pressure will approach from the southwest early in the week before potentially developing off the coast during the middle part of the week. Cirrus clouds will continue to stream across the sky the remainder of the day as high pressure remains in control and provides dry conditions for all. However, based on the dew point forecast, any threat of freezing temperatures should remain where the growing season has already ended. High pressure will retract slightly into Quebec, but remain dominant into the early part of the week.
402 AM PDT Sat Oct 25 2025 * Gusty southwest winds expected across the region today and Sunday as a trough digs through the southern Great Basin.
Temperatures are generally in the low to mid 40s this morning, with a couple spots in the upper 30s noted, including at the CAE airport where it is currently 39F. Afternoon high temperatures should barely break the low 70s under mostly sunny skies, though passing cirrus are expected as an upper low over the southern Pains shifts eastward. As the low continues to inch closer, upper flow turns more southwesterly and moisture begins to increase into Sunday morning with PWAT's gradually increasing above 0. Aloft, an area of low pressure will be moving into the region from the west.
With mainly clear skies and light winds across the OH Vly, favorable radiational cooling conditions have allowed for some freezing/subfreezing temps, particularly in central OH and the lower Scioto Vly into NE KY. Flow aloft will gradually become a bit more zonal as a S/W pivots SE into the Great Lakes region with a more well-defined closed low meandering about the south-central plains. The S/W moving into the nrn OH Vly by tonight will provide a reinforcing shot of LL dry air, which will help shunt the higher PW air off to our S into the day Sunday.
Showers and thunderstorms will continue to expand in coverage from the southwest today ahead of an approaching low pressure system. /22/ Today & Sunday: A large and deep low pressure system centered over western Oklahoma is set to move towards the region with a substantial frontal boundary associated with it. This frontal boundary will spark widespread convection out ahead of this low, through Louisiana in the afternoon hours before petering out by the time it gets to the Mississippi around early afternoon. While the low pulls off to the north/east we will see gusty winds behind up to 20kts until sunset Sunday.
627 AM CDT Sat Oct 25 2025 - Light showers and cloudy skies remain in place today with the highest chances for showers generally along and south of I-70.
The closed upper level low is slightly more north over southern OK and the TX panhandle. Things should be calming down by late Sunday night with the frontal passage and cooler and drier air filtering in.
High pressure centered over the region will produce VFR conditions through the period. Winds are largely light and variable but will favor an eastern direction tonight as the high starts pulling away. Dry airmass is in place with sprawling high pressure over the Central Great Lakes this morning. With an increase in mid to high clouds today and limited mixing, not looking for maximum temperatures to be much warmer compared to yesterday.
The good news is that there is another cold front approaching the area by the middle of the week which will bring in drier air and temperatures (you're gonna love this) in the upper 70s across most of the area! While we will rise back into the 80s by late this week, this will be our first taste of Fall. This may cause a small area of Elevated fire concerns to develop over the area where the higher ERCs intersect the lower RHs. By mid-week, another cold front will propagate through, leaving minimum RH values below 30% in its wake across much of the region through the remainder of the week which could further exacerbate fire weather concerns.
945 AM PDT Sat Oct 25 2025 * Gusty southwest winds expected across the region today and Sunday as a trough digs through the southern Great Basin.
- Low end rain chances perhaps return mid and late week? Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Broad upper level northwest flow continues early this afternoon, with northern Michigan centered between slowly yielding northeast NOAM centered long-wave troughing and rather amplified upper level ridging slowly building east into the western Great Lakes.
The region remains mainly sunny and dry this afternoon courtesy of high pressure centered to the north. Clouds increase tonight ahead of the next storm system, limiting radiational cooling somewhat, resulting in slightly warmer overnight temperatures which should end up in the 40s by daybreak outside of normally cold spots. Aloft, an area of low pressure will be moving into the region from the west.
Light rain and areas of fog continue across southwest and south central Kansas as of 1030 AM this Saturday morning, as an upper low slowly moves east across Oklahoma. The steady light rain, on the other hand, will continue this afternoon but will slowly erode from west to east this afternoon and early tonight as a 700-500mb deformation zone on the northwest side of the Oklahoma upper low crosses our area.
Negative mid level vorticity will push southward across Lower Mi Sunday to the east of a building high amplitude mid level ridge axis. While there is likely to be a little more sunshine Sunday, limiting mixing will warrant highs in the lower to mid 50s.
We will be under northwesterly upper level flow as trough remains in the area, and several pieces of vorticity rotating around the trough will bring some increased chances for showers, but mainly in the higher elevations.
The region remains mainly sunny and dry this afternoon courtesy of high pressure centered to the north. Clouds increase tonight ahead of the next storm system, limiting radiational cooling somewhat, resulting in slightly warmer overnight temperatures which should end up in the 40s by daybreak outside of normally cold spots. High pressure ridging into the forecast area from the northeast. Upper low will be slowly progressing eastward from the Plains. HREF probabilities of PWATs greater than an inch are low for much of the day which along with some upper ridging downstream of the upper low will lead to dry weather continuing. Forecast soundings indicate rapid low level moistening Sunday night with increasing isentropic lift as the upper level low approaches.
125 PM EDT Sat Oct 25 2025 Dry and cool high pressure will remain over the area through Sunday. Upper low progresses toward the Mississippi valley on Sunday while downstream moistening from the top down continues atop the SE CONUS. Cool sfc ridging and NE flow will remain as well, and in combination with the increasing cloudiness, will keep maximum temperatures one or two categories below normal.
High temperatures on Sunday will be close to normal in the lower-mid 60s area wide.
148 PM EDT Sat Oct 25 2025 Canadian high pressure will extend throughout the eastern US through the weekend.
A mid to upper level low remains just to the southwest of our area near northern TX/OK panhandle. As the mid to upper level low continues its eastwardly transit just south of the area tomorrow, expect lingering rain chances for tomorrow as well.
Those traveling in the backcountry above mountain pass levels can expect moderate snowfall through this evening as moisture surges in ahead of a cold front, currently in central Washington. The cold front will arrive in the Northern Rockies around midnight tonight, bringing colder temperatures and causing snow levels to crash to around 3,200 feet by Sunday morning.
203 PM EDT Sat Oct 25 2025 High pressure will maintain dry and unseasonably cool conditions through the weekend.
The upper low responsible for all of this is currently spinning over eastern New Mexico. The low will move slowly eastward across the Texas Panhandle and into Oklahoma by this evening. (Sunday night through next Saturday) 500mb low/trough currently across the Southern Plains of the United States will move eastward Sunday.
High pressure is bringing sunny skies, mild temperatures, and light winds to the region this afternoon. A trough moving into the northwest US today will pass north of the state on Sunday.
(This evening through Sunday) The latest surface map is showing a cold front from San Angelo to Brownwood. (Sunday night through next Saturday) 500mb low/trough currently across the Southern Plains of the United States will move eastward Sunday.
145 PM EDT Sat Oct 25 2025 Mainly dry through Sunday even as high pressure retreats. The location of an upper level low will determine the weather for the next work week, but models are not in good agreement. The clearing extends down into central portions of the area Sunday afternoon as a Rex block sets up, with high pressure over the upper Great Lakes, and low pressure drifting into the mid Mississippi Valley.
149 PM CDT Sat Oct 25 2025 - Clearer skies and warmer temperatures for Sunday as highs reach into the low 60s.
145 PM EDT Sat Oct 25 2025 -High pressure returns quiet and dry weather this weekend.
Mid afternoon water vapor imagery/RAP analysis showed the circulation around a closed low spinning over southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma.
Cooler temps are expected mid to late this upcoming week.
1202 PM CDT Sat Oct 25 2025 - Light showers and cloudy skies remain in place today with the highest chances for showers generally along and south of I-70.
Clouds increase tonight ahead of the next developing low pressure system to our west, limiting radiational cooling somewhat. Slightly warmer overnight temperatures are expected compared to the last few days, which should end up in the 40s by daybreak outside of normally cold spots. High pressure ridging into the forecast area from the northeast. Upper low will be slowly progressing eastward from the Plains. HREF probabilities of PWATs greater than an inch are low for much of the day which along with some upper ridging downstream of the upper low will lead to dry weather continuing. Forecast soundings indicate rapid low level moistening Sunday night with increasing isentropic lift as the upper level low approaches.
703 PM EDT Sat Oct 25 2025 Dry and cool high pressure remains over the area through Sunday. Temps tonight should dip low enough to allow some patchy frost to develop along/near the Blue Ridge Escarpment and across Davie and Rowan counties in the NC Piedmont. The upper low progresses toward the Mississippi valley Sunday while downstream moistening from the top down continues atop the SE CONUS. Cool sfc ridging and NE flow continue as well, and in combination with the increasing cloudiness, will keep maximum temperatures ~3-6 degrees below normal.
- An atmospheric river storm will continue to bring beneficial rain showers, light high elevation snow, gusty winds, and cooler temperatures through Sunday.
Early afternoon GOES satellite imagery and RAP mesoA reveals mostly cloudy skies across the UP as upper ridging behind a departing wave to our NE begins to build overhead. This is supporting a ~1030 mb high pressure center stretching from eastern Ontario down into the Carolinas. Global models are in mild agreement that the aforementioned ridge shifts north atop James Bay as it becomes pinched off by troughing moving into the High Plains and a retrograding closed low in the northern Apps. However, there is some question on whether or not PoPs will stay to the south if the stout ridge over James Bay forces the wave into the Lower MS Valley. High pressure across Lake Superior largely keeps southerly winds below 20 kts through at least tomorrow afternoon.
A well-defined cold front continues to push east across southwest Idaho this evening. A second system will move inland Sunday afternoon and begin to spread widespread precipitation ahead of another cold front. Scattered showers/thunderstorms tonight with cold front, producing 25-45kt gusts, small hail, low VFR to IFR conditions.
700 PM EDT Sat Oct 25 2025 High pressure will maintain dry and unseasonably cool conditions through the weekend.
637 PM CDT Sat Oct 25 2025 - Clearer skies and warmer temperatures for Sunday as highs reach into the low 60s.
Conditions will gradually improve this evening in terms of thunderstorms, ceilings, and visibilities as a cold front brings the bulk of the rain to our east, leaving us with gusty conditions through early morning Sunday for most sites. The main area of low pressure associated with a broad upper trough over the Pacific Northwest continues to churn offshore. Southwest to west winds of 25-35 mph with gusts up to 55 mph are still likely (80 percent confidence) across most of the lower elevations this afternoon into the overnight hours.
Strong high pressure centered near Georgian Bay and extending southwest into southern Lower Michigan will provide clear-mostly clear skies through taf period with light northeast winds. Chilly start today with several outlying observation sites reporting temperatures AOB the freezing mark amidst clear skies and mainly calm winds. Slight thermal moderation within the lower half of the troposphere suggests daytime highs encroach on the mid 50s for most locations. Longer wavelength ridge axis builds over the Upper Midwest and Ontario today. This forces the adjacent downstream upper low, centered over far southern Provincial Quebec, into The Northeast. A weak backdoor cold front sags southwest across The Thumb region maintaining slightly higher coverage of cumuliform cloud attributed to lake moisture flux. High pressure influence persists Monday with anticyclonic flow well established over the Great Lakes.
Dry conditions and mostly clear skies are expected to prevail through Monday given a strong ridge locked over the Great Lakes. A complicated upper level pattern evolution is still expected for the middle and end of the week as three distinct upper lows eventually merge into one large upper low over the eastern CONUS. A mid/upper level trough dropping through the downstream portion of an upper ridge axis across the Upper Midwest will continue to lose its integrity as it drops south this morning.
-Unsettled weather is expected today and tonight associated with a passing upper level low; severe weather threat remains very low.
(Today through Monday) Main story today will continue to be the breezy conditions in place across the area thanks to a tight pressure gradient from strong high pressure over eastern Canada and Melissa in the Carribean. Mild overnight temps expected with lows ranging from the lower 70s around the lake to mid and upper 70s closer to the coasts.
The main area of low pressure associated with a broad upper trough over the Pacific Northwest continues to churn offshore. Southwest to west winds of 25-35 mph with gusts up to 55 mph are still likely (80 percent confidence) across most of the lower elevations this afternoon into the overnight hours.
A low pressure trough continues to move through Northern California today, with cooler temperatures and light precipitation in Mariposa County and Yosemite NP and gusty winds in eastern Kern County. After that system exits the state, a warming trend due to high pressure ridging will follow. Any rain and high elevation snow will be light, as the chances for any measurable precipitation are about 20 percent, mainly from the high country of Yosemite to the foothills of Mariposa County.
A cold front will slip through most of the region during the early morning hours before stalling over extreme southern Idaho. Snow levels will rise about 500 feet this afternoon, but then a cold front will arrive tonight and snow levels will fall back down to around valley floors for the central mountains and 5500-6000 feet for the rest of the area. Across the central mountains, most likely looking at an additional 1 to 3 inches with up to 4 inches on upper slopes and ridges. Most of the heavy snow for the central mountains ends this morning with the passage of the cold front. With the passage of the cold front tonight, wind gusts will likely increase to 25 to 35 mph.
Chilly start today with several outlying observation sites reporting temperatures AOB the freezing mark amidst clear skies and mainly calm winds. Slight thermal moderation within the lower half of the troposphere suggests daytime highs encroach on the mid 50s for most locations. Longer wavelength ridge axis builds over the Upper Midwest and Ontario today. This forces the adjacent downstream upper low, centered over far southern Provincial Quebec, into The Northeast. A weak backdoor cold front sags southwest across The Thumb region maintaining slightly higher coverage of cumuliform cloud attributed to lake moisture flux. High pressure influence persists Monday with anticyclonic flow well established over the Great Lakes.
307 AM EDT Sun Oct 26 2025 -High pressure continues mild and dry weather today though the midweek with chilly overnight temperatures. Variable light winds in the morning begin to mix and (slightly) increase this afternoon as previously mentioned high pressure progresses northwest to Georgian Bay this afternoon, veering winds southeast. Efficient radiational cooling processes allow overnight lows to drop near or just below freezing for most locations besides areas influenced by marine environments.
Currently, high amplitude upper level ridge to our east across the Western Great Lakes region into Ontario, with a potent long wave trough over the western CONUS.
- Strong onshore winds will result in higher than normal tides tonight during the high tide cycle.
(This evening through Sunday) The latest surface map is showing a cold front from San Angelo to Brownwood.
354 AM CDT Sun Oct 26 2025 Forecast discussion for routine morning forecast issuance - Fairly tranquil weather is expected through the middle of the work week due to a persistent 500mb ridge.
Mid afternoon water vapor imagery/RAP analysis showed the circulation around a closed low spinning over southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma. Although the potential for severe storms will end early Sunday morning, the chance for rain will continue Sunday before gradually tapering off from the southwest Sunday night as the closed low moves far enough to the northeast of our CWA.
The broad trough continues to churn across the northern Rockies this morning. Latest accumulation forecasts have remained steady, with the highest totals for the Tetons and Gros Ventres.
- A much cooler airmass by mid-week will bring gusty winds area- wide and the coolest high and low temperatures of the season.
An upper low will make its way eastward from the southern plains today, to the southern Appalachian region by Sunday night into Monday. We'll have a CAD setup in place east of the mountains Sun night, and models show the H85 winds in a favorable southeasterly direction over the mountains ahead of the approaching upper low. But H85 wind speeds continue to be less than stellar in the east TN mountains, with the highest speeds residing over the far southern end of the Appalachian chain in northern Georgia.
Upper level ridge over Colorado will slowly slide east of the state by Sunday morning. Westerly flow aloft increases Sunday and Sunday night over Colorado around the base of an upper level trough moving eastward across the Northern Rockies.
The upper low responsible for the recent rainfall will move directly overhead, then east today, with shower and thunder chances persisting across eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. Coverage will slowly decrease from west to east today before ending completely by late evening or early overnight as the low departs. Resulting high temps are held in the low-mid 60s north of I-40 and upper 60s/ lower 70s to the south.
329 AM CDT Sun Oct 26 2025 Forecast discussion for routine morning forecast issuance - Fairly tranquil weather is expected through the middle of the work week due to a persistent 500mb ridge.