Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
As high pressure builds in, expect another warm day today, with highs in the 80s across most of the forecast area, and mid 70s across the Black Hills. Winds will shift to the south later tonight into Friday morning, as the high shifts eastward.
(Today) A mid-level trough (initially centered across the Lower MS Valley) will spread southeastward into the northern Gulf of Mexico today, with northerly flow aloft across our region expected to strengthen due to increasing influence from a strong subtropical high over northern Mexico and the southern Rockies. At the surface, a weak area of low pressure along the northeast Gulf Coast (related to the mid-level trough) will retrograde slowly westward over the course of the day, with lift in the vicinity of a subtle trough extending northeastward from the low currently supporting the development of mid-level stratus clouds across northwestern GA/northeastern AL.
From this evening through Friday, a passing low pressure system will bring more scattered shower activity, and a slight chance for thunderstorms. Current satellite and upper-air analysis shows a 500 mb low centered off the west coast of northern Baja and a 500 mb ridge over northern Mexico. While this moisture will keep high temperatures a couple of degrees cooler than yesterday, abnormally warm conditions will persist and an Excessive Heat Warning remains in effect below 4000 feet within the Grand Canyon and lower deserts of Yavapai County through 8 pm MST.
The higher end of that is still within areas of rainfall, but will continue to keep an eye on it once the rainfall moves out of that area. The main features that have caused well above normal rainfall over the past few days continue to be a stalled frontal boundary draped over Northern Florida, broad troughing in the Gulf of Mexico, and a low level ridge axis extending through the Bahamas into our area.
Today high temperatures will range from the low 80s across NE Georgia to mid 90s across much of Central Georgia.
602 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024 (Today through Friday afternoon) Weak ridging holds just to the west of the region and will be pushed to the east slightly. Temperatures stay above normal tonight with most only settling in the low to mid 70s. The ridge weakens further as an upper low cuts across the Rockies.
953 AM EDT Thu Jun 13 2024 High pressure will remain north of the area while weak low pressure passes offshore Friday.
1007 AM EDT Thu Jun 13 2024 High pressure remains in the area through tonight. A front tracks through the mid-Atlantic Friday, before high pressure works in again for the weekend. Looks like a case where a few storms pop up this afternoon along/near the Blue Ridge, then shift east into the foothills/piedmont by later in the day. High pressure holds over the region today, however a short wave crosses the Appalachians this afternoon and will trigger isolated showers and thunderstorms along and north of the Blue Ridge escarpment.
631 AM EDT Thu Jun 13 2024 High pressure will remain north of the area while weak low pressure passes offshore Friday.
841 AM EDT Thu Jun 13 2024 High pressure off to the southeast will provide one more warm and dry day. Some showers and thunderstorms will occur ahead of a cold front that will cross the area late tonight into Friday.
601 AM EDT Thu Jun 13 2024 High pressure keeps conditions warm and dry today. Even with daytime highs rising to the upper 80s to lower 90 across the lower elevations, it won't feel that oppressive yet with dew points still in the upper 50s/lower 60s. Couldn't rule out a stray shower or thunderstorm near the mountains this afternoon, but just about everyone should stay dry until cold frontal passage Friday. Eastward progression of an upper level trough with a developing cold front will open up the forecast period. A dominating ridge pattern then takes center stage for the start of the weekend, with dry weather prevailing once more.
(Rest of Today) An upper-level trough off the east coast of the US will move away from the TN River Valley today.
(Now through Friday) Hot but not full blown gulf coast gumbo hot as upper troughing lingers across Florida and dry northwesterly flow continues. Upper ridging will slowly build east across the deep south by Friday leading to rather large subsidence across the area.
1026 AM EDT Thu Jun 13 2024 High pressure off to the southeast will provide one more warm and dry day. Some showers and thunderstorms will occur ahead of a cold front that will cross the area late tonight into Friday.
540 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024 (Today) A mid-level trough (initially centered across the Lower MS Valley) will spread southeastward into the northern Gulf of Mexico today, with northerly flow aloft across our region expected to strengthen due to increasing influence from a strong subtropical high over northern Mexico and the southern Rockies. At the surface, a weak area of low pressure along the northeast Gulf Coast (related to the mid-level trough) will retrograde slowly westward over the course of the day, with lift in the vicinity of a subtle trough extending northeastward from the low currently supporting the development of mid-level stratus clouds across northwestern GA/northeastern AL.
630 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024 (Today through Friday) A weak mid level trough will continue southeastward today, across the Florida panhandle extending northeastward to the Atlantic coast. Upper level ridging begins to build toward the area tonight with low and mid level temperatures increasing. As the upper level ridge moves across the Southern Plains, the airmass over Central Alabama will continue to warm, with noticeably warmer temperatures Friday.
30 Previous Discussion: /Through Friday/ A strong ridge aloft centered near El Paso will expand east across Texas over the next few days, shutting off any convective attempts across the region. Sunny days resulting from ridge-induced subsidence will also generate a warming trend through the end of the week. Highs in the lower to middle 90s can be expected today, followed by widespread mid 90s on Friday, with low temperatures climbing a few degrees each night.
618 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024 - Cooler conditions today in the wake of a cold front. A cold front will track southward through western and north central Nebraska today. This will bring cooler temperatures to the area with highs settling back into the upper 70s and 80s. Far southwest Nebraska will be the last to see the front pass, and highs there will reach the lower 90s. The cold front that crosses the area today will stall in Kansas Friday. with dew points increasing into the lower 60s west of Highway 183 by late Friday afternoon.
Tonight through Friday will be dominated by a ridge moving east across the southern Great Plains.
638 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024 (Today and tonight) An upper ridge currently centered over the southern Rockies will expand eastward into Texas by tomorrow. Afternoon highs will range from the low to mid 90s over eastern portions of the forecast area, to the upper 90s to near 100 degrees over western sections. Lows tonight will be in the low to mid 70s.
623 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024 (Today and tonight) Upper level ridging will continue to build overhead today resulting in warmer temperatures due to increased heights/thickness values. Some mid level moisture will be trapped within the ridge today across eastern New Mexico. A surface pressure trough stretching from eastern New Mexico into the northern Texas Panhandle will create enough low level convergence combined with the hot temperatures to initiate thunderstorm development.
A break in thunderstorm chances is anticipated later this morning before additional scattered storms develop along/ahead of the aforementioned cold front this afternoon. Otherwise, temperatures looks to warm into the low to mid 80s for many areas south of the bridge today before the cold front swings through, dropping temperatures back into the upper 40s and low 50s tonight. Ridging currently over southwestern U. S will progress over upper Midwest at the start of the forecast period and build surface level high pressure. Attention quickly turns toward the start of the next work week as midlevel ridging strengthens across the eastern half of the U.
435 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024 - Cooler conditions today in the wake of a cold front. A cold front will track southward through western and north central Nebraska today. This will bring cooler temperatures to the area with highs settling back into the upper 70s and 80s. Far southwest Nebraska will be the last to see the front pass, and highs there will reach the lower 90s. The cold front that crosses the area today will stall in Kansas Friday. with dew points increasing into the lower 60s west of Highway 183 by late Friday afternoon.
A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for the western coastal waters south and west of the Lower Keys, including western Hawk Channel and the western Straits of Florida. From synopsis, the pattern for the remainder of the week will feature weak high pressure over the western North Atlantic and a frontal boundary stalled over northern Florida.
An upper level ridge over New Mexico and west Texas extended into the central plains. An upper level low was pushing east into the southern California coast. Temperatures across our area were in the low to mid 80s with heat index values early this afternoon in the mid 80s to mid 90s.
Another hot day is in store for Friday, as the upper ridge builds over Oklahoma and western north Texas.
1217 PM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024 (Today through Friday afternoon) Weak ridging holds just to the west of the region and will be pushed to the east slightly. Temperatures stay above normal tonight with most only settling in the low to mid 70s. The ridge weakens further as an upper low cuts across the Rockies.
125 PM EDT Thu Jun 13 2024 High pressure remains in the area through tonight. A front tracks through the mid-Atlantic Friday, before high pressure works in again for the weekend. Looks like a case where a few storms pop up this afternoon along/near the Blue Ridge, then shift east into the foothills/piedmont by later in the day. At the moment, the models in general agreement in meager storm chances so kept pops on the low side, with widely scattered coverage by late afternoon over the mountains/foothills.
1200 PM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024 (Rest of Today) An upper-level trough off the east coast of the US will move away from the TN River Valley today.
Broad area of low pressure (Invest 90L) off the northeast FL coast, will continue to lift northeast, with a weak frontal boundary remaining nearly stationary near to just north of Lake and Volusia counties. Satellite imagery shows skies breaking up some, allowing for partly sunny skies across the north, which should be sufficient for highs to warm up a little more today in the low 90s and heat index values climbing to 102-105.
1248 PM EDT Thu Jun 13 2024 High pressure will remain north of the area while weak low pressure passes offshore Friday.
1207 PM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024 (Today and tonight) Upper level ridging will continue to build overhead today resulting in warmer temperatures due to increased heights/thickness values. Some mid level moisture will be trapped within the ridge today across eastern New Mexico. A surface pressure trough stretching from eastern New Mexico into the northern Texas Panhandle will create enough low level convergence combined with the hot temperatures to initiate thunderstorm development.
1219 PM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024 Quiet weather is expected through the afternoon with clear skies and high temps generally in the lower/ mid 90s across the area. Cold front extending from central MO through western KS by early evening will be a focus for storm development.
From this afternoon through Friday, a passing low pressure system will bring scattered shower activity, and a slight chance for thunderstorms. A well defined upper low was located just off the coast of San Diego this afternoon, moving slowly toward the northeast. Southerly flow ahead of this low has induced a surge of mid level moisture into Arizona, and scattered shower development is ongoing in southwest Arizona stretching up into portions of Yavapai and Coconino counties. As the upper low moves closer to our area later tonight, cooling temperatures aloft will steepen lapse rates and allow for a few thunderstorms to develop and spread northward. By Friday - the upper low shifts into northeast AZ and then NM/CO by late afternoon. Temperatures Friday afternoon will be several degrees cooler and well below Excessive Heat Warning criteria.
Dry conditions are expected on Friday with upper ridging building into the Northern Plains. Highs will be in the seventies but off lake winds will keep lakeside areas a bit cooler.
(This afternoon through Friday) Heights are rising today in advance of a large 596dm ridge over the Desert Southwest. The ridge is progged to move eastward across Texas tomorrow producing a warm and dry north to northeast flow across Central Alabama. There is a small chance of a shower or storm this afternoon, mainly east of I-65, resulting from weak surface convergence associated with easterly surface flow from high pressure over the Mid-Atlantic region, but chances are generally less than 20 percent.
1019 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024 Quiet weather is expected through the afternoon with clear skies and high temps generally in the lower/ mid 90s across the area. Cold front extending from central MO through western KS by early evening will be a focus for storm development.
An upper level ridge stretching from West Texas to Baja California will continue to dominate the weather across the forecast area.
229 PM EDT Thu Jun 13 2024 High pressure and dry conditions will continue today. A cold frontal passage on Friday will bring a chance of showers and strong to possibly severe thunderstorms. High pressure builds into the region with summer-like weather this weekend. A large high is off the coast providing us with dry warmer weather today. High clouds are across the area ahead of the cold front. Thursday will be warmer and dry with high pressure sticking around for one more day. Highs in the low to mid 80s expected.
1212 PM EDT Thu Jun 13 2024 High pressure keeps conditions warm and dry today. Even with daytime highs rising to the upper 80s to lower 90 across the lower elevations, it won't feel that oppressive yet with dew points still in the upper 50s/lower 60s. Couldn't rule out a stray shower or thunderstorm near the mountains this afternoon, but just about everyone should stay dry until cold frontal passage Friday.
404 PM EDT Thu Jun 13 2024 A cold frontal passage on Friday will bring showers and a chance of strong to possibly severe thunderstorms. High pressure builds into the region with summer-like weather this weekend. A large high is off the coast which provided us with dry warmer weather today. The high is moving further southeast. A strong cold front over the upper Midwest and eastern Ontario moves southeast tonight to move through our area Friday and Friday evening. Friday night the upper level trough is moving east into the area with cold air aloft.
201 PM EDT Thu Jun 13 2024 High pressure off to the southeast will provide one more warm and dry day. Some showers and thunderstorms will occur ahead of a cold front that will cross the area late tonight into Friday.
The upper level ridge dominating our weather is currently anchored over the southern Plains, and will slowly move east with time. Accordingly thanks to the building heights, tomorrow will be slightly warmer than today was, with some locations in the southern valley entering the low 90s. GFS and HRRR have some convection riding the ridge axis tomorrow coming from the midwest but collapsing before entering this area.
This pooled moisture has been in response to a deepening trough axis and associated surface boundary moving southeast out of southern Nebraska that will later become the focal point for convection, and possibly a few severe storms. 0-6km shear remains marginal, between 30-40 knots with the higher values hugging the KS/NE border. By midnight tonight, convection will have mostly dissipated or moved out of the area as the low-level boundary sags into southeastern KS.
An upper level ridge stretching from West Texas to Baja California will continue to dominate the weather across the forecast area. (Friday night through next Thursday) An upper level ridge will develop over the area by Friday.
As this feature moves across the southern Rocky Mountains, lee cyclogenesis is expected to occur, forming an area of low pressure northwest of the Texas Panhandle.
Visible satellite shows scattered clouds, primarily along the higher elevations of the area ridges and mountains, with another cluster of clouds in the southern valley. Discussion: A weak shear axis will move slowly east of the southern Appalachians this morning taking the high and mid-level clouds with it. Temperatures will continue the trend of warmer highs/lows for today and tonight.
(Now through Friday) Upper ridging continues to build into the forecast area through Friday.
1030 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024 Another beautiful, though a bit warmer, day is on tap for the Mid-South. A 1016 mb high pressure remains fixed over the region leading to light and variable winds under clear skies.
An upper level ridge over the area will weaken as an upper low moves in off the West Coast.
150 PM EDT Thu Jun 13 2024 Dry high pressure remains over the area again Friday.
104 PM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024 Another beautiful, though a bit warmer, day is on tap for the Mid-South. A 1016 mb high pressure remains fixed over the region leading to light and variable winds under clear skies.
(Tonight) An upper ridge over the Desert Southwest and southern Plains will begin to push eastward tonight.
1206 PM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024 (Today and tonight) An upper ridge currently centered over the southern Rockies will expand eastward into Texas by tomorrow. Afternoon highs will range from the low to mid 90s over eastern portions of the forecast area, to the upper 90s to near 100 degrees over western sections. Lows tonight will be in the low to mid 70s.
After any fog dissipates, we're looking another decent day with afternoon highs in the low 90s, like today.
(Through Friday) Upper level troughing will slowly give way to high pressure building in from the west. At the surface, high pressure builds which combined with the upper level trough, should lead to suppressed convection.
Over the next couple days, a transition will take place as the trough axis is replaced by an upper-level ridge.
(Today through Friday) The recent active weather pattern will largely come to an end today as the subtropical ridge axis over northern Mexico into the desert southwest begins to build into the region. Otherwise, expect temperatures to remain at or above normal, ranging from the lower 90s to near 103 degrees.
217 PM MDT Thu Jun 13 2024 Satellite imagery shows widespread clear skies as flat ridge builds from the west. As the ridge axis shifts slowly to the east, opening the door to SW flow aloft and increasing mid level moisture, a few light showers/sprinkles are possible late tonight and Friday morning, especially close to the mountains and foothills. The SW flow will provide a surge of warmer air, w/ 700mb temps expected to reach near +12c, resulting in temps on Friday climbing to the mid 80s to lower 90s (likely the warmest day yet of 2024 for many locations). Weak energy combined with increasing diurnal instability and moisture (both from the southwest and up the high plains) will lead to increasing thunderstorm potential in the afternoon and evening.
(This evening through Friday night) Latest 18-19Z observational trends shows a sfc boundary in eastern New Mexico in-conjunction with a perturbation in the dirty H500 ridge centered over El Paso is resulting in some showers and thunderstorms beginning to develop in far NE New Mexico.
343 PM EDT Thu Jun 13 2024 A cold front will approach tonight and move through on Friday.
MM/25 (Now through Friday) Upper ridging continues to build into the forecast area through Friday.
1215 PM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024 (Today and tonight) Mid-level heights will gradually increase today over the southern Plains as a closed low moves into the Pacific Southwest, pushing a mid-level high eastward. Mostly clear skies overnight will help temperatures recover into the low 70s.
On Friday, slightly cooler but much less humid conditions will be seen across the area. high confidence Quiet conditions will be seen across the area as high pressure quickly moves across the Midwest.
/NEW/ /Today Through Friday/ A dominant upper level ridge will keep the weather quiet as we close out the work week. As a result, it will be quite warm across the region with high temperatures in the low to mid 90s both today and tomorrow.
300 PM EDT Thu Jun 13 2024 (This afternoon through Friday) Skies are partly to mostly sunny across the area today with early afternoon temperatures ranging from the mid 70s in the highest elevations of the NE to near 90 across the S third of the County Warning Area. Some lingering mid-level vorticity along with slightly cooler air aloft will generate a few showers across the NE mountains this afternoon and again Friday afternoon, but the remainder of the area should remain dry. Lows tonight will drop to near 60 in the highest elevations with mid to upper 60s elsewhere (perhaps closer to 70 in the Atlanta metro heat island). Low temperatures Friday night will range from the mid 60s in the NE mountains to the lower 70s elsewhere.
1217 PM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024 - Cooler conditions today in the wake of a cold front. A cold front will track southward through western and north central Nebraska today. This will bring cooler temperatures to the area with highs settling back into the upper 70s and 80s. Far southwest Nebraska will be the last to see the front pass, and highs there will reach the lower 90s. The cold front that crosses the area today will stall in Kansas Friday. with dew points increasing into the lower 60s west of Highway 183 by late Friday afternoon.
250 PM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024 - Few showers this afternoon as a cold front passes through.
Current surface analysis shows a cool front from the western Great Lakes to the central Plains, with high pressure sliding into the northern Plains. Winds are relatively light with high pressure moving over the area. Low level southerly jet will develop and intensify over the northern/central high plains overnight, mainly from western NE to eastern MT, as high pressure starts to slide east of the region. Breezy southerly winds will bring increasing moisture and some warmer air into the area. Highs will reach the 80s to around 90 across much of the Plains, with 70s over the higher Black Hills.
/Issued 1254 PM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024/ /Today Through Friday/ A dominant upper level ridge will keep the weather quiet as we close out the work week. As a result, it will be quite warm across the region with high temperatures in the low to mid 90s both today and tomorrow. As it does, the upper level ridge (mentioned in the short term discussion above) will be shifted towards the Deep South in response. Over this upcoming week, North and Central Texas will find themselves between a trough and a high place. We'll continue to be located on the back edge of the eastern ridge through the week, with a longwave trough to our northwest.
From this evening through Friday, a passing low pressure system will bring more scattered shower activity, and a slight chance for thunderstorms. Increasing southerly flow aloft ahead of the low off the northern Baja continues to pull moisture northward, mainly in the mid levels. As the low shifts closer to our area later tonight/Friday, instability associated with cooling mid-level temperatures will bring a bit better chance for a few thunderstorms. Current satellite and upper-air analysis shows a 500 mb low centered off the west coast of northern Baja and a 500 mb ridge over northern Mexico. While this moisture will keep high temperatures a couple of degrees cooler than yesterday, abnormally warm conditions will persist and an Excessive Heat Warning remains in effect below 4000 feet within the Grand Canyon and lower deserts of Yavapai County through 8 pm MST.