Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1150 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024 (Tonight) Our weather tonight (and over the next few days) will continue to be influenced by a low pressure system well off to our west. Winds will remain elevated as the deep low pressure keeps the pressure gradient tight.
High pressure will be sitting off to our east and a deep 996 low will track into the Great Lakes. High pressure will continue to influence our weather on Sunday bringing another dry day with highs in the 80s.
UPDATE The mid/upper level low continues it's slow progression east- northeast and is filling in again where a mid level dry slot was in place earlier.
As the afternoon approaches, a warm front lifts northward associated with the next low, and almost stalls out and becomes quasi-stationary somewhere in northeast Iowa and southwest Wisconsin. Near this boundary, dewpoints in the low 60s, SBCAPE and MLCAPE between 1500 and 2500J/kg, and good amounts of shear will result in some severe threat for these areas during the late afternoon and evening. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue and increase in coverage heading into Sunday as the low moves towards the region.
(Today through Sunday) The mid-level ridge will have continuing influence over the forecast area through the weekend while deeper troughing sets up over the central CONUS. Otherwise, predominantly dry weather continues under the ridge with PoPs under 10%. Temperatures will be in the low 80s over the weekend for east coast areas and mid to upper 80s over the interior and west coast.
1233 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024 (This evening through Saturday) Tonight, a short-lived mid-level zonal regime will situate over the Southern Plains ahead of a trough in the Desert Southwest. By tomorrow morning, a convergence boundary will form as a result of the low-level jet allowing the possibility of a few storms in the eastern half of our CWA. As the day continues, the trough will enter the Panhandle region with the maximized jet in our area around 0z.
Otherwise, we have stayed well north of the warm front today in the cool air and the SPC objective analysis is showing most of the CWA with MUCAPES of 100 J/kg or less.
355 AM EDT Sat Apr 27 2024 Showers will move through the region this morning with a crossing warm front. - Warmer temperatures today. In between the trough and ridge, a surface warm front will cross the region, exiting to the north by early afternoon.
A large high pressure ridge through the lower and mid levels will continue to be located east of the area today and tonight, across eastern GA and the Carolinas.
Shallow moisture was returning early this morning with stratus cigs accompanying the low to mid-60s dew points. While somewhat more conditional, there appears there could be a window for localized convergence in concert with the stronger forcing for ascent ejecting out ahead of the main upper trof. A third area of concern will be along the warm front which will become quasi-stationary this afternoon which looks to impact areas just north of the I-70 corridor. The main upper low/trof will lift more bodily northeastward on Sunday through Sunday night across the Midwest/northern Plains. The surface cold front will merge with the dry-line across eastern Kansas with a renewed severe risk across southeast Kansas before exiting by Sunday evening.
101 AM EDT Sat Apr 27 2024 - Highs are much warmer over the coming days with 70s being the norm.
This is thanks to upper-level ridging building overhead, keeping the area dry and warm. High temperatures are expected to warm into the low to mid-80's each afternoon Saturday and Sunday. Winds will be gusty, especially on Saturday, thanks to a decent pressure gradient between the trough to our west and the ridging to our east.
Winds will be out of the SE at 10-15mph; except for NE GA where winds will be less than 10mph as our mountains are expected to be the epicenter of a high pressure system that's moving off the coast and will set up a Bermuda high for the next few day.
Further upstream, a second upper trough axis extends from the Pacific NW into the desert SW. A heavier band of rain extends from northern SD into south-central SD along the northwestern periphery of the low. After a brief lull late tonight through tomorrow morning, the western trough will push through the Central Plains late Saturday into Sunday, becoming centered immediately south of the forecast area by 12z Sunday.
- Rainfall amounts through tonight of 1 to 3 inches for the lower foothills, Urban Corridor, and eastern plains. The next upper low over the Great Basin early this morning, is progged to shift into central CO by this evening then into southwest NE by 12z Sunday. Otherwise, no other changes to the highlights at this time. Upper level low will move into the Nebraska panhandle early Sunday morning and continue to pull away from Colorado Sunday. Northwest flow behind the low will produce downslope conditions along the Front Range and nearby plains.
(Now through Saturday) Dry weather conditions prevail as upper ridging remains situated across the southeastern U. A passing trough to the north will likely result in increased cloud cover across the forecast area Saturday which may limit daytime heating to some extent. Regardless, expecting temperatures to still rise into the lower 80's for most spots Saturday after reaching lower to middle 80's this afternoon.
337 AM EDT Sat Apr 27 2024 High pressure will cross the region through Sunday. A warm front will cross the region Sunday.
A potent mid/upper trough currently over the southwest states, will lift northeast into the central/southern plains tonight and early Sunday. As large-scale ascent increases with the approaching trough, additional thunderstorms are expected to develop along and east of the dryline late this afternoon and early evening.
601 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024 (Today through Sunday) High pressure remains the predominant weather across the region with most of the activity developing along the edges of the high and remaining to our south and west.
Mostly sunny and breezy conditions are in store today behind an exiting low pressure system followed by lighter winds Sunday. Isolated showers moving down through southern Clark and Mohave counties early this morning will dissipate before sunrise as dry northwest flow overspreads the region on the back side of the exiting upper low. Isolated showers may linger over far northern Mohave County today, but the rest of our forecast area will be mostly sunny, breezy and warmer. Winds will become light tonight and Sunday and temperatures will increase another 4-5 degrees allowing highs to climb into the lower 80s in Las Vegas which is near normal.
620 AM EDT Sat Apr 27 2024 High pressure will cross the region through Sunday. A warm front will cross the region Sunday.
Blended in some HRRR guidance which has some cooler temps where morning clouds were thicker and slightly higher values where clouds were non existent. A large high pressure ridge through the lower and mid levels will continue to be located east of the area today and tonight, across eastern GA and the Carolinas.
944 AM EDT Sat Apr 27 2024 High pressure will cross the region through Sunday. A warm front will cross the region Sunday.
Low pressure continues to drift eastward this morning as a center of low pressure located just east and north of the Four Corners pushes a series of showers northward through our CWA. Moisture begins to strip away tonight as the low lifts onto the Plains, this will curb precipitation pretty quickly. Gusty outflows, small hail, and brief downpours will be on the ticket, as well as more snow showers at the higher elevations along the Divide.
337 AM PDT Sat Apr 27 2024 Weaker winds, brighter skies, and warmer weather is on the horizon for the upcoming week. Many areas will be near to slightly above average by Sunday as weak high pressure moves through the middle of the week. A trough of low pressure will form into parts of the Great Basin, that will provide weak offshore flow and further warming later in the week.
649 AM EDT Sat Apr 27 2024 A warm front will pivot north through the region offering a chance of a shower or thunderstorm mainly this morning. Warmer temperatures and generally dry conditions are expected for the remainder of the weekend.
917 AM EDT Sat Apr 27 2024 Warmer temperatures are expected for the remainder of the weekend.
Sky cover was also adjusted to account for the low clouds expanding over the southwest, and for clouds decreasing north. Currently, mid/upper level low continues to lift northeast across the Northern Plains, currently centered over western Minnesota. Associated TROWAL wrapping around the low's west side continues to generate a band of wrap around showers from the Devils Lake Basin south/southwest through south central North Dakota, with scattered showers to the east of this band. As the low continues northeast, associated forcing will diminish across central North Dakota, resulting in showers ending west to east now through mid-morning Saturday, with dry conditions this afternoon. Afternoon highs will thus be warmest west and north central (mid 50s to near 60) and cooler southeast (around 50).
918 AM EDT Sat Apr 27 2024 Showers will move through the region this morning with a crossing warm front. - Warmer temperatures today. In between the trough and ridge, a surface warm front will cross the region, exiting to the north by early afternoon.
(Rest of Today) An East Coast ridge will continue to hold sway across the TN Valley region today with dry weather conditions expected. A strong pressure gradient between the East Coast Ridge and a West CONUS/High Plains trough will produce breezy conditions today.
Warmer and drier air arrives for Sunday, but the active weather pattern will resume as we head into the start of the work week. Key Points: -- Cooler temperatures this weekend with rain at lower elevations and snow in the mountains. Short Term (Today through Sunday): Rain at lower elevations and mountain snow will continue through tonight as an upper level trough continues to make its way across the western CONUS. Snow accumulations are expected to remain light with only the highest elevations, well above pass level, potentially seeing higher amounts.
630 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024 (Today) Mid/high cloud cover continues to spread into mid TN Valley from the SW, as an upper ridge pattern gradually moves eastward into the southern Atlantic states. SSE flow is also well entrenched over much of the region, as high pressure becomes anchored off of the mid/southern Atlantic Coast. With the upper ridge axis also remaining in place over parts of the region, highs look to again climb mainly into the upper 70s/lower 80s.
247 AM MST Sat Apr 27 2024 Cooler temperatures today with afternoon breeziness is expected as a weather system continues to cross the region. A deep upper level trough will continue to slowly push east today, with the center crossing the Four Corners by mid-day. A modest moisture profile along with cooler temperatures aloft is observed towards the center of the low, meaning weak instability should produce isolated shower and thunderstorm activity in the vicinity of the White Mountains today. With the trough axis centered aloft, cooler surface temperatures are expected today with highs around 8 to 12 degrees below normal forecast. As the upper level trough exits east by Sunday, highs will rise about 6 to 8 degrees from today.
Currently, mid/upper level low continues to lift northeast across the Northern Plains, currently centered over western Minnesota. Associated TROWAL wrapping around the low's west side continues to generate a band of wrap around showers from the Devils Lake Basin south/southwest through south central North Dakota, with scattered showers to the east of this band. As the low continues northeast, associated forcing will diminish across central North Dakota, resulting in showers ending west to east now through mid-morning Saturday, with dry conditions this afternoon. Afternoon highs will thus be warmest west and north central (mid 50s to near 60) and cooler southeast (around 50).
(This afternoon through Sunday) Varying degrees of southerly flow continues to pull warm air over the region with deep ridging centered over the East Coast. However, it is supporting an enhanced pressure gradient in combination with a deepening trough over the Central Plains. Pockets of moisture throughout the tropospheric column will contribute to some low-level cu and high- level cirrus, but the more favorable conditions for rain will remain well to our west further away from the grasp of the ridge. Mild conditions tonight with lows in the lower to mid 60s followed by another nice warm-up into the lower to mid 80s by tomorrow afternoon.
An area of low pressure over the central United States will begin to pinch the high southeastward. With the persistent easterly wind flow around the high, the region will remain in a warm, moist airmass through the weekend. As the gradient tightens with the low approaching from the northwest and the center of the high is pinched closer to our area, the winds will continue to build through this afternoon into tonight.
Synoptic overview and current conditions: Upper analysis and water vapor imagery show a broad trough over the great basin and southwest U. with a closed low centered roughly over the 4 corners region. Broad southwesterly flow continues out ahead of the low and into the central U. A well defined surface front was located from northeast of a low in the OK panhandle into northeast Kansas and northeast Iowa with mid 60s dew points in the warm sector south of the low. A dryline extended south of the low west Texas. The main upper trough axis and surface front will still be west of the area.
There is a cold front associated with the system and Sunday will be a breezy day.
Mostly sunny and breezy conditions are in store today behind an exiting low pressure system followed by lighter winds Sunday.
Discussion: Upper ridging will remain over the southeast CONUS tonight and into Sunday. The H85 ridge will remain just slightly to our east, so we'll keep a moist southerly return flow coming into the CWA.
148 PM EDT Sat Apr 27 2024 Warmer temperatures are expected for the remainder of the weekend.
Another round of thunderstorms with severe weather potential is expected to develop along the cold front/dryline Sunday afternoon and into the evening, with a lesser but still existent potential for tornadoes and very large hail.
Persistent springtime upper ridging continues to stretch from the N Carib, over the FL Peninsula and up into the Eastern Seaboard with subsidence aloft to keep the warm and mainly dry conditions in place through the weekend. At lower levels breezy easterly flow continues around the strong high pressure center in the W Atlantic as a result of the tight pressure gradient.
Temperatures are on the cooler side today, with highs around 50, the warmest temperatures will be in the Bighorn Basin where the sun may break through the clouds.
The first round should be focused along the stalled cold front draped across east central Iowa as we destabilize and reach our convective temperature in the upper 70s. Post cold front passage, we will be in for a dry start to the week with high pressure moving across the central Plains and mid-Mississippi River Valley.
Otherwise broad warm advection continues downstream of sfc cyclone and potent parent wave aloft over nw IA with modest theta-e riding poking into the srn lakes. Adequate low level theta-e ridge remains in place and with substantial diurnal destabilization will lead to redevelopment of showers/storms this aftn within sfc confluence zone broadly pinned through nrn IN/nw OH. Plains low will release on a similar trajectory as the current sys, into sw ON by late Mon as cold front washes out ewd. Moisture convergence with the low level jet and potential interaction from leftover outflow boundaries from convection may allow for period of regeneration of thunderstorms and some training of storms potential during the overnight hours. Have also included a brief LLWS mention at KFWA to account for northward migration of the low level jet.
1217 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024 (Rest of Today) An East Coast ridge will continue to hold sway across the TN Valley region today with dry weather conditions expected. A strong pressure gradient between the East Coast Ridge and a West CONUS/High Plains trough will produce breezy conditions today.
A Pacific cold front is forecast to approach the region from the west late this evening and eventually collide with the dryline. The lift from this collision along with upper level support as an upper level trough approaches should result in the rapid development of thunderstorms just west of our area between 8 PM and 10 PM. Overnight lows will be in the mid 50s to near 60, with highs on Sunday in the low to mid 80s.
(This afternoon through Sunday) Varying degrees of southerly flow continues to pull warm air over the region with deep ridging centered over the East Coast. However, it is supporting an enhanced pressure gradient in combination with a deepening trough over the Central Plains. Pockets of moisture throughout the tropospheric column will contribute to some low-level cu and high- level cirrus, but the more favorable conditions for rain will remain well to our west further away from the grasp of the ridge. Mild conditions tonight with lows in the lower to mid 60s followed by another nice warmup into the lower to mid 80s by tomorrow afternoon.
A slow-moving cold front is poised well upstream from central Iowa southwestward into Kansas and will serve as the focus for strong to severe convection over the next several hours. The next round of strong to severe convection will fire along the cold front across Iowa/Missouri late Sunday afternoon.
Early in the week, a low over the Pacific Northwest, combined with a high pressure system to the south will keep us in a calm but warm pattern.
Complicating this is the high potential for very heavy rainfall which will quickly lead to flash flooding issues where these storms set up.
Afternoon satellite imagery shows continued widespread cloud cover across the area associated with an upper low to our south. 40s and lower 50s are the norm for most of us but the Magic Valley has been a touch warmer with less cloud cover and rain. For Sunday, the low across the Four Corners continues to move away from our region and into the Central Plains. Elsewhere we should see a bit more clearing and warmer temps with some low 60s potentially into the lower valleys.
For today, another round of strong to severe storms remains expected over roughly the southern half of the area, namely in/around a surface warm front draped across the state. Low level wind fields certainly are relaxed comparatively to yesterday, though hodographs still have suggestions of a tornado or two possible with good low level curvature and streamwiseness to go along with supportive low level CAPE, even as streamwise vorticity values are on the lower end/more marginal. Cannot rule out any mode of severe weather, with tornado potential near the low as it tracks across NW Iowa, as well as hail and winds with any strong or organized convection within warmer/more unstable airmasses.
(Tonight) No weather impacts expected tonight as the region will be largely under the influence of an East Coast ridge, while the effects of a West CONUS/High Plains trough and its associated synoptic boundary remain far to our west. Low temperatures will tend to remain elevated due partly to the winds, with lows just down into the low/mid 60s at most locations.
A cold front and dry line will lie just upstream on Sunday.
1243 PM EDT Sat Apr 27 2024 High pressure will cross the region through Sunday. A warm front will cross the region Sunday.
GOES East water vapor imagery & RAP analysis indicate stout upper cold core trough digging over the Four Corners, which is leading to widespread ascent, convection & severe weather across the Great Plains. Our region remains in the drier pattern, with center of mean ridging in the Carolinas & sfc subtropical high centered in the western Atlantic. Seasonably warm lows, some 5-10 deg F above normal, in the low-mid 60s are expected.
425 PM MST Sat Apr 27 2024 Updated Aviation A departing weather system will result in residual breeziness and some showers across the higher terrain areas of northern and eastern AZ today.
High pressure sliding down the eastern seaboard will maintain southeasterly breezes and mild temperatures tonight into Sunday. Temperatures tonight should drop into the lower to middle 60s before warming into the lower to middle 80s Sunday afternoon.
218 PM MST Sat Apr 27 2024 A departing weather system will result in residual breeziness and some showers across the higher terrain areas of northern and eastern AZ today.
As the low-level jet increases tonight and upper-level ascent from the low pressure system currently over far southwest Kansas begins to push eastward, additional storms may develop along the warm front later this evening. Mid-level trough has been moving through the Four Corners region throughout the day. Associated sfc warm front has been slowly pushing north across the forecast area, and is near the KS/NE border as of 20Z. Our initial round of storms early this afternoon developed along the warm front, and a wake low developed in southwest portions of the area helping to push the boundary north. While parameters don't look nearly as high as they did for today, instability and shear would again be supportive for severe weather for any storms that develop in eastern KS ahead of the cold front.
A mild and dreary day continues! Taking a look across the area, a layer of stratus continues to blanket most of the area as a quick mid-level ridge approaches the area from the southwest. Ahead of the ridge, lingering cold air advection (CAA) along with consistent cloud cover will keep temperatures fairly similar to yesterday with highs expected to peak in the mid to upper 50s and low 60s for the day with the warmest conditions expected across northwesterly IA. Looking aloft, mid-level warm air advection (WAA) will strengthen ahead of the inverted trough axis late tonight bringing our first round of showers mostly across northwestern, IA and the Missouri River Valley.
620 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024 (Tonight) No weather impacts expected tonight as the region will be largely under the influence of an East Coast ridge, while the effects of a West CONUS/High Plains trough and its associated synoptic boundary remain far to our west. Low temperatures will tend to remain elevated due partly to the winds, with lows just down into the low/mid 60s at most locations.
Cooler temperatures today with afternoon breeziness is expected as a weather system continues to cross the region. A deep upper level trough will continue to slowly push east today, with the center crossing the Four Corners by mid- day. A modest moisture profile along with cooler temperatures aloft is observed towards the center of the low, meaning weak instability should produce isolated shower and thunderstorm activity in the vicinity of the White Mountains today. With the trough axis centered aloft, cooler surface temperatures are expected today around 8 to 12 degrees below normal forecast. As the upper level trough exits east by Sunday, highs will rise about 6 to 8 degrees from today.
A lee-side trough is already developing off the higher elevations/foothills area. Otherwise, the low-level jet has pulled scattered to broken 5kft clouds into southeast Tennessee/southwest North Carolina with generally mostly clear elsewhere. Discussion: Upper ridging will remain over the southeast CONUS tonight and into Sunday. The H85 ridge will remain just slightly to our east, so we'll keep a moist southerly return flow coming into the CWA.