Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
- Cooler this weekend. Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Respectable surge of Atlantic Ocean originated moisture pinwheeling back west into the Great Lakes early this morning on north side of slow north moving Ohio Valley upper level low pressure. Ohio Valley low/elongated troughing will continue to work north, centering itself across the Northwoods tonight.
(This afternoon through Thursday) Heights are rising today as the upper-level trough is pulling away to the Northeast. Some patchy advection fog may develop across the south tomorrow morning then conditions trend warmer during the day with mostly sunny skies. Some locations in the south will warm into the lower 90s as low-level ridging centers over the northern Gulf.
(Through Thursday) West and southwesterly winds prevail through the period as upper level ridging develops over the southeast US. This will continue the increasing trends in temperatures and for tomorrow expect highs to jump into the low 90s.
352 PM CDT Wed May 14 2025 Through tonight: A warm ridge is in the process of building over the forecast area in the near term with very warm temperatures noted as highs have reached 90+ in a few locations.
(Rest of today through Thursday) Upper trough will continue moving off the eastern US coast, with ridging nosing in from the southwest. High pressure at the surface remains centered over the Gulf coasts. Deep layer dry air and the building ridge will result in benign conditions through the period. Tomorrow, highs will be in the low to mid 90s across the western interior of South Florida, with highs hovering around 90 to the east.
(Tonight through Thursday night) Ridging will remain strong over the region through Thursday, but will start to shift east and break down a bit Thursday night. Strong high pressure will dominate the Gulf and will interact with inland lower pressure to keep a tighter gradient and regional onshore winds strong, especially across eastern sections.
There is ample directional shear in the low levels creating plenty of spin in the environment which is favorable for storms to rotate.
304 PM CDT Wed May 14 2025 Updated at 304 PM CDT Wed May 14 2025 -Warmer weather is expected through the rest of the week.
Cloud cover will also gradually diminish this afternoon as weak ridging builds in. A thermal trough will develop along the coast and this will bring a return of gusty north winds, highest south of Cape Blanco this afternoon, persisting through at least Thursday evening.
A low pressure system centered to our east will continue to provide showers to portions of SW Idaho (mainly over higher terrain and in the Western Magic Valley) today. Afternoon highs will be a little warmer compared yesterday, but still around 5 to 10 degrees below normal.
- Weak cold front passes Thursday with low thunderstorm chances southeast OK / northwest AR. A weak cold front remains on track to move into parts of northeast Oklahoma toward daybreak, leading to a drop off near and behind the front late tonight. The aforementioned cold front remains likely to push to just south of the I-44 corridor tomorrow before washing out.
- Weak cold front passes Thursday with low thunderstorm chances southeast OK / northwest AR. Also from the low was a north south oriented dryline across central Oklahoma. Ahead/northeast of the warm front, dewpoints of mid 60s to near 70 deg were common, while lower 70 deg dewpoints were reported across far southeast Oklahoma between the front and the dryline. The higher dewpoints mid/late afternoon should be in northwest Arkansas, while the western portion of the CWA should be west of the dryline. The warmer temps over eastern Oklahoma will help create heat index values in the low 90s as well. However, with the lower dewpoints over these locations, this should keep the heat index from reaching its full potential.
Ridging remains in place early this morning, keeping our region just on the periphery of deeper moisture which lies just off to our southwest. However, expect the moisture will start to lift northward later today and tonight as the ridge axis shifts east and flow turns more toward the south. The increasing clouds and rising dewpoints will help to keep temperatures a little cooler than yesterday with most spots peaking in the 70s. Shower chances will increase on Thursday as an upper trough swings in from the west. Increased precipitation chances can be expected for the end of work week as a closed low centered over the Great Lakes region slowly pushes into the Northeast, bringing showery weather and chances for thunderstorms.
- Dry and quiet conditions are expected to continue Thursday with temperatures slightly cooler thanks to an early morning front.
1215 PM CDT Wed May 14 2025 Upper trough axis was positioned over the southeast US, with a high level northwest flow in place over the local area. /10 A northwesterly flow pattern aloft will persist through Thursday as an upper ridge builds over the Gulf. At the surface, high pressure remains planted over the Florida Peninsula, helping to maintain southwesterly winds across the area. Temperatures and dew points will continue to increase as ridging builds in and low-level moisture advects in from the Gulf.
308 PM EDT Wed May 14 2025 Showers and storms are possible this evening as an upper level trough sweeps east of the area. Ridging will then bring warmer temperatures late this week.
Issued by National Weather Service Brownsville TX 1249 PM CDT Wed May 14 2025 - High pressure building into the region will yield a prolonged period of dry and impactful hot weather.
1241 PM MDT Wed May 14 2025 - Much cooler temperatures are expected today, along with afternoon showers and thunderstorms. - Afternoon showers and storms will remain in the forecast through the end of the week and into the weekend, favoring the higher terrain.
Temperatures are observed in the low to mid 80s early this afternoon, and areas across the interior are already starting to touch the upper 80s.
- High pressure building into the region will yield a prolonged period of hot and humid weather.
1225 PM CDT Wed May 14 2025 (Today through Thursday) The subtropical ridge continues to build across Deep South Texas into late this week, with low pressure in the Plains enhancing the pressure gradient locally.
327 PM EDT Wed May 14 2025 Unsettled weather continues for the rest of the week as a slow moving upper level low moves through.
1235 PM CDT Wed May 14 2025 (Today through Thursday) Upper low/trough extended from eastern Kentucky to Florida this morning with another trough from Montana into California. Upper ridging was along the lee side of the Rockies. At the surface, low pressure was centered over the Oklahoma Panhandle with a warm front eastward and a dry line southward. Mid level ridging will build into the western Gulf and the lower Mississippi River Valley through Thursday.
328 PM EDT Wed May 14 2025 Unsettled weather continues for the rest of the week as a slow moving upper level low moves through.
1249 PM CDT Wed May 14 2025 - Mild and dry conditions expected this week - An active weather pattern is likely to emerge this weekend, bringing multiple rain and severe storm chances to the area As of 345 AM Wednesday morning, a midlevel ridge axis continues to amplify across the central and southern Plains. Further west, a western CONUS trough continues to dig across the Intermountain West with cyclonic midlevel overspreading the central and northern high Plains.
Issued by National Weather Service Charleston WV 1238 PM EDT Wed May 14 2025 A Flood Watch has been issued for excessive rainfall along the ridges of Pennsylvania and West Virginia today with additional showers and storms this afternoon and evening. There is the potential for severe weather late this week ahead of a passing cold front. High resolution models have been consistent that heavy rain, for showers and storms, are expected to develop in central West Virginia between 17Z to 20Z this afternoon and could cause training along the ridges into the evening hours.
A deep trough will continue to push through the region today, bringing gusty winds and cooler conditions. Today should be the last of the very windy days as the low sitting off to our north starts to weaken and pull out of the region. A large area of low pressure currently centered over eastern Idaho continues to bring cooler temperatures and gusty southwest winds across the state. This trough will continue to push eastward today focusing our gusty winds across the eastern portion of the state.
That does not mean conditions outdoors will be pleasant - at least in the opinion of a midwesterner - as dew points hover in the lower 70s. Meanwhile, a progressive series of low pressure systems will propagate across the northern CONUS and prevent a strong high pressure system from building over the southeastern US.
- Meteorological Overview: Neutrally orientated H500 trough over the Western CONUS, with an attendant closed low over Southwest Montana, will begin to lift northeast and over the Upper Mississippi Valley through Thursday. By Thursday morning a surface cold front, which is currently over Northern Alberta as of this (Wednesday) afternoon, will push south and east across North Central and Central Montana through Thursday morning; with this cold front providing additional opportunities for showers and isolated thunderstorms through the day on Thursday here. High temperatures in wake of the cold front on Thursday will generally be 5 to 10 degrees cooler over the plains of Central and North Central Montana, with the valleys of Southwest Montana generally being 5 to 10 degrees warmer thanks to the fronts forward progression being stalled until Thursday afternoon.
1152 AM MDT Wed May 14 2025 - Much cooler temperatures are expected today, along with afternoon showers and thunderstorms. - Afternoon showers and storms will remain in the forecast through the end of the week and into the weekend, favoring the higher terrain.
A weak open wave will slide down the backside of the trough over the region overnight.
1052 AM PDT Wed May 14 2025 Departing trough and upstream ridging promote fair weather and a warming trend through the rest of the week. Slight cool off into the weekend as another upper level trough moves through.
Water vapor imagery this afternoon highlights a mid/upper trough tracking into the Central Rockies as strong flow persists over the southern CONUS.
Issued by National Weather Service Wilmington NC 418 PM EDT Wed May 14 2025 Unsettled weather continues today as a trough axis moves through the region. Summer-like weather arrives late this week as a ridge of high pressure builds through the weekend. Shear associated with the approaching trough axis will bring linear convection (with embedded supercells possible) that moves eastward. At this point, the severe threat should have ended, but I have held PoPs around 30%, especially near the coast where warmer waters will interact with surface lift and remnant convection. Lows in the low to mid 60s, upper 60s for the OBX.
Issued by National Weather Service Charleston WV 414 PM EDT Wed May 14 2025 A Flood Watch has been issued for excessive rainfall along the ridges of Pennsylvania and West Virginia today with additional showers and storms this afternoon and evening. There is the potential for severe weather late this week ahead of a passing warm and cold front. KEY MESSAGES: - Showers and thunderstorms return this afternoon/evening - Flood Watch in effect through 10pm tonight for Preston, Tucker, Westmoreland, and Fayette County for potentially slow moving storms; 1-2 inches possible in isolated areas - Fog expected after midnight ------------------------------------------------------------------- 4PM Update: Showers and storms are currently ongoing south of Pittsburgh this evening with a passing trough.
1102 AM CDT Wed May 14 2025 Upper trough axis was positioned over the southeast US, with a high level northwest flow in place over the local area. /10 A northwesterly flow pattern aloft will persist through Thursday as an upper ridge builds over the Gulf. At the surface, high pressure remains planted over the Florida Peninsula, helping to maintain southwesterly winds across the area. Temperatures and dew points will continue to increase as ridging builds in and low-level moisture advects in from the Gulf.
Water vapor imagery at this hour depicts a strengthening upper low over the Intermountain West. This trough is becoming increasingly negatively tilted with time as an associated upper jet near its base emerges onto the central Plains. As the trough pivots, it is supporting CI in the vicinity of a low-level baroclinic zone across western/central SD. The upper wave transitions to an elongated west-east oriented trof that gradually strengthens and closes over the Upper Midwest by tomorrow night, which should prolong potential for windy conditions and lingering shower activity.
936 PM EDT Wed May 14 2025 Showers and storms are possible this evening as an upper level trough sweeps east of the area. Ridging will then bring warmer temperatures late this week.
1035 PM EDT Wed May 14 2025 Unsettled weather continues today as a trough axis moves through the region. Summer-like weather arrives late this week as a ridge of high pressure builds through the weekend. However, still seeing some stronger storms off of Hatteras where instability is greatest near warmer Gulf Stream waters, but is lifting NNE away from the OBX. Shear associated with the approaching trough axis will bring linear convection (with embedded supercells possible) that moves eastward. At this point, the severe threat should have ended, but I have held PoPs around 30%, especially near the coast where warmer waters will interact with surface lift and remnant convection. Lows in the low to mid 60s, upper 60s for the OBX.
647 PM CDT Wed May 14 2025 Through tonight: A warm ridge is in the process of building over the forecast area in the near term with very warm temperatures noted as highs have reached 90+ in a few locations.
636 PM CDT Wed May 14 2025 - Weak cold front passes Thursday with low thunderstorm chances southeast OK / northwest AR. A weak cold front remains on track to move into parts of northeast Oklahoma toward daybreak, leading to a drop off near and behind the front late tonight. The aforementioned cold front remains likely to push to just south of the I-44 corridor tomorrow before washing out.
Transient ridging will build tonight into the first half of Thursday.
West or northwest winds, and showers (over higher terrain in Idaho) were slowly decreasing this evening as the main upper trough shifted out of Idaho and into Wyoming. Thursday looks drier, slightly warmer, and less windy than today as a weakening upper ridge passes through.
Issued by National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 712 PM EDT Wed May 14 2025 (Through Thursday) West and southwesterly winds prevail through the period as upper level ridging develops over the southeast US. This will continue the increasing trends in temperatures and for tomorrow expect highs to jump into the low 90s.
Low clouds passing across the mountain areas with some clear skies over the lowlands, observed from current satellite and radar imagery. The leading edge of the upper ridge gradually builds over the PacNW with the trough continuing eastward from the forecast area.
710 PM CDT Wed May 14 2025 - Dry and quiet conditions are expected to continue Thursday with temperatures slightly cooler thanks to an early morning front.
629 PM CDT Wed May 14 2025 Updated at 627 PM CDT Wed May 14 2025 - Warmer weather is expected through the rest of the week.
1059 PM EDT Wed May 14 2025 Precipitation chances are low to close out the work week, with much warmer temperatures expected. Upper-mid level ridging is filling into the region as the primary long wave trough pivots northeastward. Key Message(s): - Warmer and dry to round out the work week. Upper ridging will be in control of the weather across the FA for much of the short term.
- Weak cold front passes Thursday with low thunderstorm chances southeast OK / northwest AR. Moderately breezy southerly winds will keep temperature mild tonight, generally in the low-mid 70s, much of the overnight period. Temperatures will begin to fall across portions of northeast OK at the tail-end of the short-term period as a weak cold front starts to push into the forecast area from the northwest. Recent runs from the CAMs indicate isolated showers and thunderstorms developing ahead of the approaching cold front, mainly along/just north of the Red River just before sunrise tomorrow morning. Went ahead an included mentionable PoPs (20%) across Pushmataha, Choctaw, and southern Pittsburg counties just before sunrise to reflect this, though forecast confidence is not the highest. The aforementioned cold front remains likely to push to just south of the I-44 corridor tomorrow before washing out.
Issued by National Weather Service Brownsville TX 635 PM CDT Wed May 14 2025 - High pressure building into the region will yield a prolonged period of hot and humid weather.
700 PM EDT Wed May 14 2025 (Rest of today through Thursday) Upper trough will continue moving off the eastern US coast, with ridging nosing in from the southwest. High pressure at the surface remains centered over the Gulf coasts. Deep layer dry air and the building ridge will result in benign conditions through the period. Tomorrow, highs will be in the low to mid 90s across the western interior of South Florida, with highs hovering around 90 to the east.
In addition, low level ridge is inching closer to the Sunshine State. This in combination with an upper level ridge moving into the western Gulf is providing a deep layer of subsidence. Speaking of the low level ridge, winds have clocked around sooner than expected to the east and southeast this evening. Temperatures are currently around 80 degrees and dew points in the lower 70s, making things a little muggy.
732 PM EDT Wed May 14 2025 Showers and storms are possible this evening as an upper level trough sweeps east of the area. Ridging will then bring warmer temperatures late this week.
548 PM MDT Wed May 14 2025 - Much cooler temperatures are expected today, along with afternoon showers and thunderstorms. - Afternoon showers and storms will remain in the forecast through the end of the week and into the weekend, favoring the higher terrain.
536 PM CDT Wed May 14 2025 (Tonight through Thursday night) Ridging will remain strong over the region through Thursday, but will start to shift east and break down a bit Thursday night. Strong high pressure will dominate the Gulf and will interact with inland lower pressure to keep a tighter gradient and regional onshore winds strong, especially across eastern sections.
Satellite images shows the higher cloud deck diminishing, with ample mid and low level clouds mainly along and west of the Cascades. Dry weather is likely tonight into Thursday morning as weak upper ridging builds in.
623 PM CDT Wed May 14 2025 - Dry and quiet conditions are expected to continue Thursday with temperatures slightly cooler thanks to an early morning front.
Ridge axis of high pressure over the west Atlantic will remain extended across FL overnight, with winds becoming light and variable and skies mostly clear to partly cloudy. Temperatures are observed in the low to mid 80s early this afternoon, and areas across the interior are already starting to touch the upper 80s.
620 PM CDT Wed May 14 2025 (This afternoon through Thursday) Heights are rising today as the upper-level trough is pulling away to the Northeast. Some patchy advection fog may develop across the south tomorrow morning then conditions trend warmer during the day with mostly sunny skies. Some locations in the south will warm into the lower 90s as low-level ridging centers over the northern Gulf.
822 PM EDT Wed May 14 2025 Precipitation chances are low to close out the work week, with much warmer temperatures expected. Upper-mid level ridging is filling into the region as the primary long wave trough pivots northeastward. Key Message(s): - Warmer and dry to round out the work week. Upper ridging will be in control of the weather across the FA for much of the short term.
Issued by National Weather Service Wilmington NC 712 PM EDT Wed May 14 2025 Unsettled weather continues today as a trough axis moves through the region. Summer-like weather arrives late this week as a ridge of high pressure builds through the weekend. Shear associated with the approaching trough axis will bring linear convection (with embedded supercells possible) that moves eastward. At this point, the severe threat should have ended, but I have held PoPs around 30%, especially near the coast where warmer waters will interact with surface lift and remnant convection. Lows in the low to mid 60s, upper 60s for the OBX.
1216 AM CDT Thu May 15 2025 (Tonight through Thursday night) Ridging will remain strong over the region through Thursday, but will start to shift east and break down a bit Thursday night. Strong high pressure will dominate the Gulf and will interact with inland lower pressure to keep a tighter gradient and regional onshore winds strong, especially across eastern sections.
449 AM EDT Thu May 15 2025 Precipitation chances are low to close out the work week, with much warmer temperatures expected. 500 hPa ridging is forecast to continue building into the area, with heights rising pretty significantly today.
105 AM EDT Thu May 15 2025 (Rest of today through Thursday) Upper trough will continue moving off the eastern US coast, with ridging nosing in from the southwest. High pressure at the surface remains centered over the Gulf coasts. Deep layer dry air and the building ridge will result in benign conditions through the period. Tomorrow, highs will be in the low to mid 90s across the western interior of South Florida, with highs hovering around 90 to the east.
Issued by National Weather Service Brownsville TX 1149 PM CDT Wed May 14 2025 - High pressure building into the region will yield a prolonged period of hot and humid weather. (Tonight through Friday night) Broken high clouds streaming into the region all the way from the Baja peninsula this afternoon on broad upper level ridging responsible for record breaking heat across parts of central and south Texas today. Ridging aloft and a moderate pressure gradient at the surface will yield another very warm, dry and breezy day Thursday very similar to today with the only difference being wind speeds a bit lower. The ridging aloft begins to flatten out, but the warm, dry and breezy conditions continue.
1131 PM MDT Wed May 14 2025 - Much cooler temperatures are expected today, along with afternoon showers and thunderstorms. - Afternoon showers and storms will remain in the forecast through the end of the week and into the weekend, favoring the higher terrain.
1247 AM CDT Thu May 15 2025 Through tonight: A warm ridge is in the process of building over the forecast area in the near term with very warm temperatures noted as highs have reached 90+ in a few locations.
Ridge axis of high pressure over the west Atlantic will remain extended across FL overnight, with winds becoming light and variable and skies mostly clear to partly cloudy. Temperatures are observed in the low to mid 80s early this afternoon, and areas across the interior are already starting to touch the upper 80s. A mid to upper level ridge axis builds eastward across the Gulf late week, stretching across central Florida by Friday. At the surface, weak high pressure extends across the Gulf and the central Atlantic. High temperatures in the low to mid 90s Thursday warm into the mid 90s areawide on Friday.