Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
This combined with the snowpack will support strong radiational cooling, and lows will drop into the low teens southwest to below zero northeast.
A stubborn, quasi-stationary area of low pressure near the Canadian Maritimes will remain entrenches over easternmost Canada as a ridge of high pressure situates itself over the Ohio Valley. Expect high temperatures to top out near 10 degrees in the mountains to the lower 20s along the coastline.
1106 PM CST Tue Jan 7 2025 (Tonight through Wednesday night) - Cold weather continues tonight through Wednesday night but a bit warmer than previous forecasted - There is a slight of wintry mix late Wednesday night into Early Thursday morning across portions of the southern Edwards Plateau and western Hill Country. Overnight lows are cold but a bit warmer than previous forecast cycles ranging from the mid 20s to mid 30s. The day starts cold and cloudy on Wednesday with highs in the lower to mid 40s with cloudy skies over most areas. By Wednesday evening into early Thursday morning, an upper level low pressure system moving across Baja California and northwest Mexico pushes to the southeast sending increased elevated moisture across South Central Texas.
The center of low pressure has dropped into far northern Mexico this evening. The upslope side of the high terrain along Lake Mary Road up through Doney Park and north along US Hwy 89 to Gray Mountain has seen accumulating snow and slow travel. A cold low pressure system was located along the southern border of Arizona during the afternoon, heading southward.
We continue to see troughing over the central CONUS at the start of the period, but better chances for meaningful precipitation may remain north of the area.
1128 PM CST Tue Jan 7 2025 - The coldest day in the period comes Wednesday and Wednesday night with daytime highs in the lower 20s and overnight lows in the single digits.
Strong H5 ridging continues to influence the upstream flow pattern, which is providing regular reinforcements of cold air out of the Northwest Territories. The overall lack of ridge building off the Eastern Seaboard and southeastern CONUS is serving to keep most of our return moisture well to our south.
The cold front has pushed well south of Florida with a cold air mass continuing to reside over Florida through Thursday. Strong high pressure builds in over the central U. We will likely have another setup of sub-freezing temperatures on Thursday morning along the Nature Coast, which has prompted the issuance of a Freeze Watch, with possible Cold Weather and Frost Advisories needed for the early morning hours on Thursday. The high will move southeastward over the southeast U.
356 AM EST Wed Jan 8 2025 (Today through Thursday) High pressure is centered across the central part of the country with ridging extending all the way to the eastern seaboard. The high center should drop south through today and then push eastward and overhead on Thursday.
1235 AM EST Wed Jan 8 2025 All too familiar Arctic high pressure remains through the midweek period.
847 PM MST Tue Jan 7 2025 At 8 PM MST, satellite imagery reveals a weak trough north of Seattle, Washington, which is expected to move east-southeast across Washington tonight and into Northern Idaho and Western Montana by Wednesday. While this will slightly weaken the upper- level ridge, it is not anticipated to significantly impact the surface inversion across the region.
1001 PM MST Tue Jan 7 2025 - Light snow will continue tonight favoring the San Juans with another 1 to 3 inches likely, mainly over the high terrain.
Meanwhile, KBRO Doppler radar shows light rain and drizzle over the lower Texas coastal waters and the lower Rio Grande Valley. With HRRR model guidance suggesting generally paltry rain chances for today (reflected in the forecast), coverage of convection should increase tonight, and even more so on Thursday, as low pressure begins moving north along the Lower Texas Coast.
(Now through Thursday) A very cold, dry airmass will continue to filter into the local area through Thursday as a large Canadian high pressure system slowly pushes southeastward.
North to east flow will steadily diminish through the day as the upper level trough ejects southward over Baja California. As upper level ridging begins to dominate the pattern, broad northerly flow aloft and will continue to produce periodically breezy north to east winds through the remainder of the week. Gusty north to east flow returns this weekend as a weak trough quickly drops into the Great Basin, tightening north to east surface gradient. These winds are expected to be weaker compared to this current wind event, but uncertainty still exists in the low's track and steepness of the resultant gradient.
546 AM CST Wed Jan 8 2025 (12Z TAFS) MVFR ceilings over interior southeast Mississippi and southwest Alabama will will improve to VFR from north to south throughout the morning as the low cloud deck gradually erodes. (Now through Thursday) A very cold, dry airmass will continue to filter into the local area through Thursday as a large Canadian high pressure system slowly pushes southeastward.
High pressure will largely result in dry weather across the region.
Highs will be in the low 40s for most areas, and we'll have some clearing skies. The northwest would be the lower amounts and the eastern Panhandles along and south of the Canadian River would see the higher amounts.
Surface analysis depicts massive Arctic high pressure sprawling across almost the entire CONUS. As the southern stream trough ejects eastward into Texas, weak low pressure will develop over the NW Gulf of Mexico on Thursday.
Light accumulations expected - A cold front moving through tomorrow will bring light snow in the afternoon and evening. Today: Surface ridging weakens as southerly flow ahead of an approaching system takes hold of the region today. Tomorrow (Light Snow): An upper level trough and cold front is set to pivot across the Northland Thursday afternoon bringing some light snowfall.
358 AM MST Wed Jan 8 2025 - Warmer today - Cold front with gusty northwest winds and snow tonight/early Thursday.
Challenges: 1) High temperatures specifically in snowpack 2) Snow chances Thu afternoon-evening Changes: Adjusted precipitation chances on Thursday A wave is over the mid Mississippi River Valley into eastern Canada while a wrapped up low pressure system sits over southern California/the Baja.
312 AM MST Wed Jan 8 2025 A low pressure system over the desert southwest will result in colder temperatures, breezy to windy conditions, and chances for precipitation today.
Highest potential for an inch or two of accumulation up near the Pine Ridge.
(Today through Thursday) Cold, high pressure remains in place today and begins to slide east on Thursday. So while the highs will once again be in the upper 30s to middle 40s.
453 AM MST Wed Jan 8 2025 - Quiet and cool conditions continue today under a brief transitory ridge.
For tonight it looks as cold, if not colder in the areas that saw the lower clouds this morning, as the high clouds will thin out with northerly flow persisting. The cold front has pushed well south of Florida with a cold air mass continuing to reside over Florida through Thursday. Strong high pressure builds in over the central U. We will likely have another setup of sub-freezing temperatures on Thursday morning along the Nature Coast, which has prompted the issuance of a Freeze Watch, with possible Cold Weather and Frost Advisories needed for the early morning hours on Thursday. The high will move southeastward over the southeast U.
(Today through Thursday) High pressure is centered across the central part of the country with ridging extending all the way to the eastern seaboard. The high center should drop south through today and then push eastward and overhead on Thursday.
358 AM MST Wed Jan 8 2025 - Quiet and cool conditions continue today under a brief transitory ridge.
- Over the weekend another upper level trough will cross the Central Plains. Short term models are in agreement this morning on the timing of the next upper level trough, currently located over the Pacific Northwest and British Columbia, crossing western Kansas Thursday night. A chance for light snow will be possible late Thursday into Thursday night as this trough moves across western Kansas with snow accumulations from all model guidance with the exception of the ECMWF indicating snow totals at or below 1 inch. ECMWF is the outlier this morning with forecast snow totals up to 2" possible and it appears this is due to the higher mid level moisture accompanying this upper trough and slightly slower timings of the upper wave.
Conditions will briefly dry out mid-week under high pressure with rounds of morning fog and low stratus.
/issued 147 AM PST Wed Jan 8 2025/ * Elevated east to northeast winds continue today and Thursday along the Sierra ridgetops.
209 AM MST Wed Jan 8 2025 - Warmer today - Cold front with gusty northwest winds and snow tonight/early Thursday.
Dry weather is expected this week as high pressure continues to build in. High pressure continues in the region. If clouds remain over a certain area, this could keep temperatures from falling significantly, though 30s are still possible across the lower elevations. Thursday morning has the potential to be chillier in the lower elevations, including the coast, as it is expected for most areas to be cloud free.
359 AM MST Wed Jan 8 2025 KEY MESSAGES: - Much warmer temperatures are expected through the end of the week. - A mix of rain, snow, and freezing rain are possible today along with gusty northwest winds producing blowing snow.
147 AM PST Wed Jan 8 2025 * Elevated east to northeast winds continue today and Thursday along the Sierra ridgetops.
Pockets of stratus and dense freezing fog are persistent across the Magic Valley and a few spots across the southeast and eastern highlands. With the inversion in place, expect places that remain under the inversion (especially portions of the Snake Plain where low clouds remain) to not get out of the low/mid 20s. The current forecast has mid 20s to near freezing in that corridor.
200 PM CST Wed Jan 8 2025 - Relatively warmer temperatures today compared to the last few days, with highs in the 30s to near 40.
Near term forecast through today remains the same, with mostly to partly cloud skies, and relatively warmer temperatures compared to recent days.
1129 AM PST Wed Jan 8 2025 * Elevated east to northeast winds continue today and Thursday along the Sierra ridgetops. A high pressure system moves over the Pacific NW today, keeping us in this pattern of relatively benign weather. The NE flow will keep Sierra ridgetop winds elevated, but expect calm winds across the rest of the area.
A fairly quick moving trough of low pressure will swing through late tonight into Thursday. Once better lift and saturation occur, temperatures will settle below freezing and allow for all snow.
347 PM EST Wed Jan 8 2025 Arctic high pressure will migrate from the Great Plains to the Middle Atlantic through Thursday.
Temperatures will increase due to a dry warm front moving into the Northland tonight, leading to high temperatures closer to normal in the upper teens and lower 20s for Thursday. This will be short lived, however as a clipper system moving east through Ontario drops a cold front over the Northern Plains and Midwest.
- Cold front moves through the state Thursday afternoon and evening.
It remains rather chilly this afternoon across the Keys with temperatures in the lower to mid 60s for the Middle and Lower Keys with upper 60s for the Upper Keys. The Upper Keys have managed to get a bit warmer than the rest of the Chain due to more sunshine across the area.
Pattern begins to change Thursday night as the high to the north moves east and the next storm system begins to move across the Gulf of Mexico. Thursday night still looks cool, but the lower level flow will begin to shift to northeast to east with overnight lows likely occurring a few hours before sunrise.
Most valleys should at least see some breaks in the low clouds today, but even then, there is higher level cloud cover streaming over the region today.
Temperatures along the Island Chain are in the upper 50s to near 60 degrees with dew points in the lower 50s. From synopsis, moderate to occasionally fresh northerly breezes will continue through Thursday across the Keys coastal waters, as a large area of high pressure moves slowly eastward across the central and eastern United States.
The Pacific trough along the coast yesterday weakened moving through the upper ridge but still produced a few snow showers in our northern zones this morning.
/96 (Now through Thursday) A very cold, dry airmass will continue to filter into the local area through Thursday as a large Canadian high pressure system slowly pushes southeastward.
The Rockies energy phases with the closed low tonight into Thursday with low-level flow becoming southerly across the Central Plains. Warmer west-southwest surface winds through the Thursday will bump temperatures near or above freezing; NBM probabilities of reaching at least 32 degrees tomorrow afternoon are 50-90% with the HREF showing a similar likelihood. Saturation occurs in the low-levels first which could lead to a window for freezing rain/drizzle and sleet before the column saturates deeper and cools through the afternoon and into the evening. Areas along and south of I-35 have the highest chances of seeing at least 1-2" and possibly some higher amounts, so have issued a Winter Weather Advisory for this area.
1016 AM MST Wed Jan 8 2025 - Quiet and cool conditions continue today under a brief transitory ridge.
(Tonight) Lingering clouds continue to diminish this Wed afternoon, as a dry reinforcing cold front moves eastward thru the mid TN Valley.
The greatest accumulations will be over the Absaroka/Beartooth Mountains and the higher terrain over portions of southeast Montana and the Bighorn Mountains, where upslope enhancement will increase snow totals. The latest deterministic forecast indicates 6-12 inches over the higher terrain of the Absaroka/Beartooth and northern Bighorn Mountains.
1032 AM MST Wed Jan 8 2025 - Warmer today - Cold front with gusty northwest winds and snow tonight/early Thursday.
Updated at 214 PM CST Wed Jan 8 2025 - Winter Weather Advisory issued for freezing rain, snow and some sleet.
128 PM MST Wed Jan 8 2025 - Cold front with gusty northwest winds and snow tonight/early Thursday.
This brings another morning of potential refreezing of area roadways.
Ridging remains overtop Northern CA and will keep us dry with no forecasted precipitation observed.
516 PM MST Wed Jan 8 2025 - Cold front with gusty northwest winds and snow tonight/early Thursday.
545 PM CST Wed Jan 8 2025 - Light snow late tonight and Thursday Highest potential for an inch or two of accumulation across the northwest Sandhills including the Pine Ridge.
Dry weather is expected this week as high pressure dominates.
351 PM CST Wed Jan 8 2025 - Light snow late tonight and Thursday Highest potential for an inch or two of accumulation across the northwest Sandhills including the Pine Ridge.
Updated at 805 PM CST Wed Jan 8 2025 - Winter Weather Advisory issued for freezing rain, snow and some sleet.
2) Though temperatures are above freezing in many places, some ground surfaces are subfreezing, leading to icy surfaces.
427 PM CST Wed Jan 8 2025 - Relatively warmer temperatures today compared to the last few days, with highs in the 30s to near 40.
608 PM CST Wed Jan 8 2025 (Tonight) Lingering clouds continue to diminish this Wed afternoon, as a dry reinforcing cold front moves eastward thru the mid TN Valley.
Temperatures during the day on Thursday will range from the low 50s north to low 60s south.
538 PM CST Wed Jan 8 2025 Updated at 528 PM CST Wed Jan 8 2025 - Winter Weather Advisory issued for freezing rain, snow and some sleet.
As such, freezing fog remains in the forecast in many of our lower valley locations. Upper level ridging will build over the area tomorrow which will keep things dry but NW flow aloft will keep the colder air in place with high temperatures tomorrow below the freezing mark just about everywhere.
(Now through Thursday) Cold, dry conditions will continue through Thursday as a large Canadian high pressure system maintains its hold over our local area. With upper ridging also building in, we are not anticipating as much low-level cloud cover as we have seen over the past couple nights.
623 PM EST Wed Jan 8 2025 All too familiar Arctic high pressure remains through late week.
409 PM EST Wed Jan 8 2025 All too familiar Arctic high pressure remains through late week.
High pressure has redeveloped over the region and subsidence will push mid-level clouds lower into valleys.
Ridging, warming, and drying in that layer will further limit snow production today.
1155 PM CST Wed Jan 8 2025 - Light snow late tonight and Thursday Highest potential for an inch or two of accumulation across the northwest Sandhills including the Pine Ridge.
A cold air mass continues to reside over Florida as strong high pressure builds into the southeast U. It will still be a cold morning on Friday, but widespread freezing temperatures and wind chill concerns should not be as high as what we have seen the past few mornings, so will hold off on any Freeze Warnings or Cold Weather Advisories at this time. The high will move eastward into the western Atlantic by late Friday morning. This will bring a shift in winds to the east and southeast, producing a brief period of warmer temps closer to average on Friday and Friday night.
323 AM EST Thu Jan 9 2025 The region will remain between low pressure to the northeast and high pressure to the west through Friday.
Ridging does build in through the column overnight into Thursday. Enjoy it because clouds and light synoptic snow move in for Friday and Friday evening in advance of an amplifying positively tilted upper trough and associated cold front.
1018 PM MST Wed Jan 8 2025 - Cold front with gusty northwest winds and snow tonight/early Thursday.
Previous forecast remains on track with low-level inversion and patchy valley night/morning fog/stratus continuing under upper ridge through Friday morning. A trough will approach from the Gulf of Alaska later Friday and Friday night bringing snow showers and enough cold air aloft to mix out the inversion below and end the air stagnation.
High pressure over the eastern Pacific Ocean will gradually nudge over the region Thursday into early Friday. A quick moving trough and front will knock down the ridge and pass through the area on Friday, bringing a quick shot of precipitation.
1142 PM CST Wed Jan 8 2025 - Relatively warmer temperatures today compared to the last few days, with highs in the 30s to near 40.
1230 AM EST Thu Jan 9 2025 All too familiar Arctic high pressure remains through late week.
1046 PM CST Wed Jan 8 2025 Updated at 1026 PM CST Wed Jan 8 2025 - Winter Weather Advisory issued for freezing rain, snow and some sleet. The upper level low is currently sitting over NW Mexico. As the upper low shifts east through tonight, it will open into an open wave before absorbing into another upper trough over the Central Plains. A rain/snow mix is expected on and off through the day with chances of freezing rain. Winds will be light from the south to southwest before shifting from the north after a cold front pushes southward through the CWA tomorrow afternoon.
Cooler, winter weather conditions continue for the Florida Keys. Overnight temperatures are slightly warmer at Key West thanks to a lingering layer of stratus across the Lower Keys as seen by GOES East microphysics observations. A 500 mb trough located over the Northern Plains will sharpen at the same time a cutoff low, currently located over the Baja Peninsula, manages to move east across northern Mexico. Cutoff lows are notoriously difficult to forecast, and the exact dynamics of how it will interact with the northern trough are varying from run to run.
- Dry conditions continue Friday ahead of another cold front.
A few remaining light lake effect showers and flurries will diminish this morning and a break in precipitation today as ridging moves eastward into the area and a more southwesterly flow at the surface arrives. By Friday morning will begin to see a deep cold trough originating over central Canada and dropping southward through Texas move eastward into the region.
Currently - Strong high pressure swinging into the eastern United States is maintaining northwest to northerly breezes across the Keys and continued cool conditions. Temperatures are currently in the lower 60s with dew points in the mid 50s. Strong high pressure over the eastern United States, along with nocturnal cooling, will result in freshening northwest to northerly breezes on Keys waters overnight.
The Rockies energy phases with the closed low tonight into Thursday with low-level flow becoming southerly across the Central Plains. Warmer west-southwest surface winds through the Thursday will bump temperatures near or above freezing; NBM probabilities of reaching at least 32 degrees tomorrow afternoon are 50-90% with the HREF showing a similar likelihood. Saturation occurs in the low-levels first which could lead to a window for freezing rain/drizzle and sleet before the column saturates deeper and cools through the afternoon and into the evening. Areas along and south of I-35 have the highest chances of seeing at least 1-2" and possibly some higher amounts, so have issued a Winter Weather Advisory for this area. Snow exits early Friday morning as the longwave trough shifts east.
Water vapor imagery this morning shows a positively tilted upper trough over the central part of the country. The northern feature is pushing a cold front southeast towards the area, allowing southerly winds to increase ahead of its arrival. The main forecast focus is on a round of light snow that will arrive this PM ahead of the main trough axis. Elsewhere from the main band, lighter snow (a coating to an inch) will be possible just ahead of the approaching cold front. Some guidance still suggests weak low-level lift coupled with loss of DGZ saturation, so still can't rule out some light freezing drizzle, mainly over north-central KS. Friday into the weekend, a chilly pattern continues as eastern CONUS troughing maintains northwesterly flow aloft. Highs stay mainly in the low to mid 30s.
- Near-freezing high temperatures expected today; roughly 8-15 degrees warmer than yesterday.
907 AM EST Thu Jan 9 2025 High pressure will move across the area today and tonight. High pressure will build back in for the weekend. High pressure centered in the mid south early this morning will build northeast into the region through the day. Highs will be in the lower to mid 20s. High pressure centered over the area at the beginning of the period will shift east tonight allowing for winds to become southerly. Short wave over the southern Plains early Friday morning will lift northeast as northern and southern stream troughs phase in a positive tilt.
At or below freezing low temperatures will persist through the weekend for most of southeast Arizona. Current temperatures are at or below freezing south and east of Tucson with most of the Tucson metro in the mid to upper 30s. Winds only died down a couple hours ago across the metro, so expect temperatures to continue to decrease to freezing by day break. In the mountains the Chiricahuas could see an additional 1-3 inches of snow thanks to favorable upslope flow and the trajectory of the low. Friday will be cold and dry as the low moves off to the southeast. Even with this uncertainty freezing and sub-freezing temperatures will still be a threat.
Quiet and dry weather with seasonable temperatures will persist through Friday as high pressure builds over the western U.