Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Agree that the lowest rain chances will be along the coast esp south of the Cape where isolated showers are possible thru early aftn. So the highest PoPs (60%) are over the north/interior.
Meanwhile, to our north, a cold front is making its way down through the TX Panhandle/Red River region. The high precipitable waters will result in storms being efficient rainfall producers, resulting in a marginal risk for excessive rainfall. For high temperatures Friday, it'll be cooler to the north where the cold front will move through earlier (upper 80s to low 90s) and warmer south of I-20 (mid to upper 90s).
(This evening through Friday night) A strong upper level ridge remains draped across the north central Gulf Coast late this week and into the upcoming weekend.
Low temperatures in the morning will be in the low-mid 70s. The cold front associated with the low pressure system over the great Lakes will move through the region in the afternoon and bring much drier and cooler weather behind the front. Cooler drier air will in advect in behind the departing cold front Friday night into the weekend.
(This evening through Friday night) Upper level troughing continues across the region in the short term period. A couple of short wave perturbations are expected to traverse across the High Plains and allow showers and thunderstorms to form tonight and tomorrow. Today, near and below average highs are forecast for many places across the combined Panhandles thanks to the quicker progression of the cold front today. However, effective CAPE is expected to be on the lower end and 500 mb temperatures close to -8 degrees Celsius will also disallow for large hail production.
As the upper level ridge that has been centered over the TN Valley for the last few days begins to shift east, a cold front slowly drops down from the northwest.
704 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024 (This evening through Friday night) Upper level troughing continues across the region in the short term period. A couple of short wave perturbations are expected to traverse across the High Plains and allow showers and thunderstorms to form tonight and tomorrow. Today, near and below average highs are forecast for many places across the combined Panhandles thanks to the quicker progression of the cold front today. However, effective CAPE is expected to be on the lower end and 500 mb temperatures close to -8 degrees Celsius will also disallow for large hail production.
The upper low is over southeast South Dakota as depicted by the nice swirl on IR satellite imagery this afternoon. A sort of inverted trough extending north into northwest MN, and is associated with the scattered shower and storm activity we are seeing there as well. This pattern will continue into tonight as the upper low moves slowly east across the area, with it remaining close enough to continue to generate shower and storm chances through Friday. With this overhead, we have been a little cooler than normal, which should continue on Friday as well.
The strong dome of high pressure will begin to center over N CA, with even further increasing temperatures through the weekend. The strong dome of high pressure (597 dam) is currently centered just off of the CA coast.
01z/8pm surface analysis shows a cold front extending from far western Wisconsin to Oklahoma. Further south, some of the storm clusters currently ongoing across southwest Missouri may lift northeastward ahead of the cold front and spill into the SE CWA toward dawn Friday. Overnight lows will drop into the middle 60s behind the front across the Illinois River Valley, but will remain in the lower 70s along/south of I-70. Late this evening and overnight, deep/closed H5 low is progged to dig across the Upper Midwest while attendant surface cold front sweeps across central Illinois overnight into early Friday morning. Behind the departing cold front, slightly drier (low to mid 60) dew points will begin to advect across central Illinois along with slightly cooler temps.
Currently - Deep layered ridging remains across the southeastern United States. The mid and upper level ridge reaches northeastward out of the Gulf of Mexico into the Mid Atlantic. 8 inches with moisture lacking through the lower levels. Short Term Update - Deep layered ridging will remain aligned to our north through the overnight period. Expect overnight lows to struggle to fall into the lower 80s with dew points remaining disgustingly high in the upper 70s. Surface ridging will hold on across the southeast while Hurricane Beryl steadily moves further westward towards the Yucatan Peninsula and further away from the Keys.
633 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024 (This evening through Friday night) A strong upper level ridge remains draped across the north central Gulf Coast late this week and into the upcoming weekend.
Today through Thursday: A rather innocent-looking ridge of high pressure remains offshore this afternoon while clear skies and temperatures in the 80s and low 90s prevail across the Inland Northwest. That ridge offshore is about to get much stronger, and our temperatures much hotter.
The area looks to dry out over the weekend as high pressure builds across the Ohio Valley. After a couple days featuring a stalled frontal boundary and moist atmospheric conditions, the 500 mb trough will finally dig into the Great Lakes through the day on Friday.
858 PM EDT Thu Jul 4 2024 Very hot today, and still in the lower 90s in locations that didn't see rain. Light E/SE flow will again be in place with ridging across the area for tomorrow. High pressure ridging across the waters will keep light winds over the coastal waters through the weekend, with diurnal sea breezes dominating the flow.
524 PM MDT Thu Jul 4 2024 - It will be much cooler across much of the area this afternoon and on Friday. A quiet weather day for most of the region behind a cold front that swept through the region last night, remains across the area.
There's a cold front draped across central and northern Oklahoma, roughly along and north of I-40 in western Oklahoma, to near Stillwater and then northeast to Bartlesville. and is generally in the same vicinity as a theta-e ridge at 700mb, which may help enhance moisture convergence even further. This forecast attempts to marry the SREF and HRRR solutions, increasing hourly PoPs twice, once along the front/700 theta-e ridge. The front is a bit further south than where the high resolution models would suggest, so highest PoPs have been adjusted southward. or maybe the lower 90s.
906 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024 00Z upper air analysis still shows an upper-level ridge present across the Lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast U. with a slight weakness in the ridge over northwest Arkansas.
On Friday, an upper-level ridge will build along the coast, tightening the pressure gradient across the forecast area as low pressure remains over the northern plains.
Increased chances (30-60%) of showers arrive by daybreak ahead of a cold front moving into the area from the northwest.
An anomalously strong offshore upper-level ridge continues to build and slowly migrate eastward. In general, temperatures are 5-10 degrees warmer this afternoon relative to yesterday.
Lows will range from the lower 70s north to upper 70s and lower 80s south, followed by a return to the mid to upper 90s along and south of I-20 tomorrow afternoon, while to the north highs may only make it into the upper 80s.
With some unsettled weather over the Midwest and a massive ridge of high pressure over the eastern Pacific, the Northern Rockies will stay under northwest flow aloft heading into the weekend. Impactful weather will start later in the weekend as the ridge of high pressure over the eastern Pacific shifts eastward.
(Today through Saturday) Upper level ridging is pushed southward today, becoming oriented west to east along the Gulf Coast, as a trough moves southeastward through the Mid Mississippi River Valley. A surface front and convective complex associated with the trough is moving through Arkansas this morning.
131 AM MDT Fri Jul 5 2024 With strong ridging along the Pacific coast, NW flow aloft remains over our region, bringing more afternoon & evening showers/t-storms today and Saturday. Today will be warmer than the past couple days as we see a brief period of weak ridging this morning, mixed W-NW winds by midday, and a bit later onset of convection. Instability is modest (250-750 j/kg, highest east) but freezing levels that are seasonably low support small hail with any t-storms, in addition to brief downpours and gusty winds, of course. Saturday should be just a bit cooler than today. Overall, we are looking at temps slightly cooler than normal for this time of year the next two days.
1136 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024 00Z upper air analysis still shows an upper-level ridge present across the Lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast U. with a slight weakness in the ridge over northwest Arkansas.
All sites in the metro area are still just into the lower triple digit range.
Ridging continues aloft with warm H500 temps around -4. A persistent pattern continues with ridging/warm temps aloft. Some weakening of the mid/upper level ridging is forecast though temperatures aloft (H500) do not improve by more than a degree or two (-4.
- There are no major heat concerns for the next 7 days with maximum heat index values in the low 90s for portions of the area. An upper level trough is centered over the upper Midwest and extends over Nebraska and Kansas. This will allow for temperatures to stay cooler today with highs similar to yesterday ranging from the mid 70s to mid 80s. A broad upper trough will be across most of the country on Saturday.
(Today) A welcome reprieve from day after day of heat headlines starts today, courtesy of a cold front that continues to push through eastern OK and northwest AR early this morning.
Last of the low level WAA band of showers and storms is exiting our NW Illinois counties early this morning. Focus will shift to an upper level low on water vapor imagery over Minnesota. As this low tracks eastward today it will usher in a surface cold front. The greatest duration is anticipated across our southern counties pushing highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s, while the lowest duration far north/west should limit highs there to around 70 or the lower 70s. A few mid 50s are possible portions of NE Iowa, with any duration of BL decoupling and clear skies being in closer proximity to surface ridging.
400 AM EDT Fri Jul 5 2024 Showers and thunderstorms can be expected ahead of cold front that passes through the area late in the day into early evening. The area looks to dry out over the weekend as high pressure builds across the Ohio Valley.
1254 AM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024 (This evening through Saturday) To begin the period, hot and humid conditions will continue ahead of a cold front that is expected to move into the state later this evening. PoPs are expected to become more widespread later this evening as the cold front moves into the state. Drier and somewhat "cooler" conditions are expected Saturday as the cold front moves south of the state. Overnight low temperatures are expected to drop into the lower 60s to lower 70s by Saturday morning.
Our low pressure center is located in far eastern Minnesota and western Wisconsin this morning evidenced by the slow moving rotating showers that have persisted over the past few hours.
A trough moving across the northern Great Plains is pushing a cold front through the area this morning that will bring cooler temperatures today. Highs are only expected to reach the lower 90s for many locations, a welcome respite from the triple digit heat seen the past several days.
Scattered coverage will likely continue into the overnight hours along and ahead of the cold front as it pushes further south into SE OK and WC AR.
1243 AM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024 (This evening through Friday night) Upper level troughing continues across the region in the short term period. A couple of short wave perturbations are expected to traverse across the High Plains and allow showers and thunderstorms to form tonight and tomorrow. Today, near and below average highs are forecast for many places across the combined Panhandles thanks to the quicker progression of the cold front today. However, effective CAPE is expected to be on the lower end and 500 mb temperatures close to -8 degrees Celsius will also disallow for large hail production.
Increased chances (30-60%) of showers arrive by daybreak ahead of a cold front moving into the area from the northwest. (Friday through Saturday Night) As the cold front pushes through the area on Friday, expect coverage in showers and storms to increase steadily through the late morning into the afternoon. Despite rain chances, afternoon temperatures are forecast to rise into the low 90s with dewpoints in the mid to upper 70s. Post cold front airmass is both slightly cooler and drier. While afternoon temperatures still reach the lower 90s on Saturday, the dewpoints will be much more bearable, mixing out into the mid 60s in the afternoon.
- Drying out with cooler and less humid conditions this weekend. The progressive nature of these storms has so far kept the high PWAT driven rain rates from producing more than advisory flooding, though isolated flooding issues remain possible. A cold frontal passage moves through this morning, bringing an end to precipitation. Drier air moves into the region along with high pressure, resulting in much more pleasant conditions for the weekend with highs in the mid to upper 80s along with lows and dew points in the 60s. A trough dips well southward into the Plains, pushing the ridge off to the east.
1040 PM MDT Thu Jul 4 2024 - It will be much cooler across much of the area this afternoon and on Friday. A quiet weather day for most of the region behind a cold front that swept through the region last night, remains across the area. Saturday will be more of the same, with temperatures becoming slightly warmer by the afternoon.
Currently, the area lies under NW flow aloft with an amplified 500 mb ridge set up over the western portion of the country. For the remainder of this afternoon into tonight, high pressure will remain intact for much of the CWA, providing a nice cool and dry period. The focus will be a developing low/trough over eastern Colorado Friday afternoon.
Moisture pooling in the vicinity of a warm front will bring the chance for some strong to severe thunderstorms, with the potential for another round of heavy rainfall.
Tonight, a low pressure system moves into the region bringing widespread showers and thunderstorms Saturday.
1012 PM MDT Thu Jul 4 2024 - It will be much cooler across much of the area this afternoon and on Friday. A quiet weather day for most of the region behind a cold front that swept through the region last night, remains across the area. Saturday will be more of the same, with temperatures becoming slightly warmer by the afternoon.
Pretty quiet weather is expected for Friday with a breezy northwesterly surface flow, with the main upper trough well to the east across the western Great Lakes.
An anomalously strong offshore upper-level ridge continues to build and slowly migrate eastward. In general, temperatures are 5-10 degrees warmer this afternoon relative to yesterday. Temperatures in the 90s and lower 100s will be widespread for the lower elevations, and nighttime cooling will be modest. While winds are generally expected to be light and diurnally driven across the region as the ridge builds overhead, two exceptions will be Friday afternoon and evening through the Kittitas Valley, and again Saturday afternoon and evening in portions of central Oregon.
High pressure relents a little on Sat afternoon as a low slides through southern Canada. This will not affect the warming trend, with 6 to 10 deg F of warming for the high today compared to yesterday, and another 3 to 7 deg F from Fri to Sat.
(Today through Saturday) The SE US ridge will remain the main mid-lvl feature of interest through the short-term period, although it will continue to weaken and erode as troughing shifts into the central/NE US and a closed low over the Atlantic retrogrades towards it.
(Today and tonight) Ridging overhead with a hot and moist unstable airmass at the surface will remain in place for the near term.
231 AM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024 - Cooler and drier conditions today and Saturday.
Strong U/L subtropical ridge over the central Atlantic will extend across the Florida peninsula through the period. At the surface, weak high pressure over the forecast area will create light boundary layer flow today. Also, the weak boundary layer flow and strong high pressure aloft will create favorable conditions for temperatures to climb several degrees above climatic normals today. A heat advisory has been issued for all counties of west central and southwest Florida due to the high apparent temperatures.
Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms expected today ahead of a cold front. Discussion: A trough is moving into the Midwest. Weak troughing will be over the Tennessee Valley today and tonight. At the surface, a cold front will move through the region late tonight or early Saturday with a shift to northerly winds. Although, it will be hot and humid with heat indices around 100 for much of the Southern Valley with highs in the lower 90s and dew points in the mid 70s.
A bit cooler day is on tap for the Mid-South as sporadic showers and thunderstorms continue to spread across the area, ahead of a cold front.
(Today and tonight) Cooler temperatures expected across the area today, as a weak cold front moves through. Farther south, highs will range from the low to mid 90s across the Concho Valley and Heartland, and in the upper 90s along the I-10 corridor. Lows tonight are expected to be in the lower 70s.
High pressure that is enveloping the region will prevent any large scale ascent, and we are still opting to keep PoPs at 20% as we head into the weekend since we can't rule out smaller scale ascent such as converging breezes or boundaries. The combination of high temperatures near 90F and dew points in the upper 70s will lead to heat indices climbing into the low 100s during the afternoon, and this looks to be the case for the next few days since the high pressure doesn't seem to be going anywhere just yet. Light to gentle east to southeast breezes will continue into the weekend as high pressure settles in over the area.
Benign weather prevails through the short term period as high pressure continues to engulf the western CONUS. This will see dry northwest flow persist aloft across western Colorado and eastern Utah while the ridge axis extends north into Canada. Farther east, broad troughing will dominate the central U. Warm and dry conditions persist through the weekend as high pressure continues to build in.
620 AM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024 (Today) A welcome reprieve from day after day of heat headlines starts today, courtesy of a cold front that continues to push through eastern OK and northwest AR early this morning.
There is still some risk of redevelopment along the cold front later this afternoon which is still in IL/MO/AR, however latest HRRR data suggests this is a low chance.
636 AM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024 A bit cooler day is on tap for the Mid-South as sporadic showers and thunderstorms continue to spread across the area, ahead of a cold front.
High temperatures are forecast in the lower to mid-90s.
- Drying out with cooler and less humid conditions this weekend. The progressive nature of these storms has so far kept the high PWAT driven rain rates from producing more than advisory flooding, though isolated flooding issues remain possible. A cold frontal passage moves through this morning, bringing an end to precipitation. Drier air moves into the region along with high pressure, resulting in much more pleasant conditions for the weekend with highs in the mid to upper 80s along with lows and dew points in the 60s. A trough dips well southward into the Plains, pushing the ridge off to the east. A cold front moves through, shifting 5-10 kt winds to northwesterly with a brief period of 1500-2500 ft cigs possible.
High pressure builds over the Great Basin producing a stretch of dry and hot weather. Today through Saturday Night Gradually expanding and strengthening ridge over the western U. Daytime high temperatures today will be in the upper 80s to upper 90s, climbing to the low 90s to low 100s Saturday. With the high pressure center focused over NorCal, northwesterly flow will reside over the forecast area today and tomorrow.
647 AM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024 (Today through Saturday) Upper level ridging is pushed southward today, becoming oriented west to east along the Gulf Coast, as a trough moves southeastward through the Mid Mississippi River Valley. A surface front and convective complex associated with the trough is moving through Arkansas this morning.
739 AM EDT Fri Jul 5 2024 (Today through Saturday) The SE US ridge will remain the main mid-lvl feature of interest through the short-term period, although it will continue to weaken and erode as troughing shifts into the central/NE US and a closed low over the Atlantic retrogrades towards it.
644 AM EDT Fri Jul 5 2024 Showers and thunderstorms can be expected ahead of cold front that passes through the area late in the day into early evening. The area looks to dry out over the weekend as high pressure builds across the Ohio Valley.
655 AM EDT Fri Jul 5 2024 (Today and tonight) Ridging overhead with a hot and moist unstable airmass at the surface will remain in place for the near term.
650 AM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024 (Today and tonight) Cooler temperatures expected across the area today, as a weak cold front moves through. Farther south, highs will range from the low to mid 90s across the Concho Valley and Heartland, and in the upper 90s along the I-10 corridor. Lows tonight are expected to be in the lower 70s.
Today through Friday: The upper level ridge of high pressure is well established off the coast of Washington.
530 AM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024 - Cooler and drier conditions today and Saturday.
930 AM EDT Fri Jul 5 2024 Showers and thunderstorms can be expected ahead of cold front that passes through the area late in the day into early evening. The area looks to dry out over the weekend as high pressure builds across the Ohio Valley.
A stagnant weather pattern will likely persist over the next few days w/ active northwesterly flow aloft on the eastern periphery of high-amplitude ridging over the western US.
There was a very noticeable dry layer sampled in the lower levels which suggests that maybe a slug of Saharan Air made it into our area this morning. Temperatures will reach the lower 90s in most island communities today thanks to the abundant sunshine. From synopsis, light to gentle east to southeast breezes will continue into the weekend as high pressure settles in over the area.
Another hot and humid FL July day on tap with ridging over the region and afternoon into evening sea breeze and outflow dominated convection. Strong U/L subtropical ridge over the central Atlantic will extend across the Florida peninsula through the period. At the surface, weak high pressure over the forecast area will create light boundary layer flow today. Also, the weak boundary layer flow and strong high pressure aloft will create favorable conditions for temperatures to climb several degrees above climatic normals today. A heat advisory has been issued for all counties of west central and southwest Florida due to the high apparent temperatures.
Weak progressive ridging is currently located over western and central North Dakota and this feature has been the main reason showers and storms have been a little slower to get going than yesterday. That being said, another fast moving upper low will track into the area later today and tonight, bringing more scattered showers and isolated to scattered thunderstorms (30 to 60 percent chance). Given the lack of shear, weak funnels/landspouts could be a concern similar to yesterday, but the upper low has moved well east so background vorticity is not as elevated.
while not included in the official forecast, we could see some patchy fog in the Rolling Plains thanks to the combination of today's rain, cooler temperatures, moist ground and upslope light winds.