Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
(Rest of today and tonight) Hot and humid weather continue today as Oklahoma and north Texas remain on the northwest periphery of a 594 dam mid-level ridge centered across southeast U. Mahale (Wednesday through Thursday night) The center of the mid-level ridge will move toward the Midwest on Wednesday, which will place the Southern Plains in weak south- southwest flow aloft. Lowered mid-level heights/a weakness associated with a trough will result in a chance of showers and thunderstorms across the northwest half to two-thirds of Oklahoma into parts of western north Texas Wednesday afternoon and evening. With the ridge farther to the east and more cloud cover expected, a Heat Advisory was not issued for Wednesday at this time. Thursday will be similar to Wednesday with a weakness in the ridge persisting across the Southern Plains.
Will have the highest storm POPS of 30-50% across northwest Oklahoma where confidence is highest at this time to 20% across the remainder of northern and western Oklahoma including 3 of our adjacent counties in western north Texas.
202 AM MDT Wed Jul 23 2025 KEY MESSAGES: - Warmer with isolated showers today - Warming and drying trend through the weekend Valley fog is developing across northwest Montana this morning, as seen on nighttime satellite imagery. A broader pattern shift toward warmer and drier conditions is expected by the end of the week, with near-average temperatures continuing through the weekend.
159 AM MDT Wed Jul 23 2025 KEY MESSAGES: - Cooler temperatures with chances for showers and thunderstorms will continue today.
Prolonged duration heat/humidity remains a headline as the bulk high pressure holds strong thru Thursday with triple digit heat indices showing no sign of abating yet.
With all this, we did hit 108-112F heat index values today and with tomorrow expected to be warmer overall an upgrade to an Extreme Heat Warning was done for areas north of the I-10/12 corridor. Tropical moisture associated with a weak low pressure that is currently located back towards the Florida panhandle will push towards our area tomorrow. PoPs closer to the coast will be higher than further north as the weak low pressure system skirts along the coast or even remain completely offshore.
Thrust of thermal ridge axis up acrs the area day, with more sun than today to help the heat cause, and no storms expected through 00z at least. So taking the high sfc DPTs into affect, will advertise mainly low to mid 90s. The general trend is for a thermal ridge-riding wave rolling over and just east of the MO RVR Valley to continue to try and produce sctrd showers and thunderstorms from central IA Wed night into the local CWA Thu morning, if just in a weakening fashion.
1237 AM CDT Wed Jul 23 2025 On the southern periphery of a mid to upper level ridge positioned from the Mid South to off the Mid-Atlantic coast, an inverted upper level trough pivots westward across the northern Gulf mid to late week.
Drier and warmer conditions then set in to finish out the week. Drier air has already taken hold across much of northern Arizona as a trough to the west begins to approach. As the trough ejects off the Pacific and slowly propagates eastward, drier, breezier, and warmer conditions look to set in across Arizona.
Water vapour loop had upper ridge over the southeastern CONUS with southwest flow over the CWA.
646 AM EDT Wed Jul 23 2025 High pressure will build into the area from the northeast providing slightly cooler and less humid conditions through Thursday. Tranquil weather today thanks to high pressure continuing to hold in place across the Mid-Atlantic region. Humidity still on the lower side, so should feel a bit more comfortable throughout the day and especially into the overnight hours. High pressure will slide east into the Atlantic tonight, but will remain dry areawide with closest rain potential along the Carolina coastline.
553 AM PDT Wed Jul 23 2025 Updated at 1210 AM PDT Wed Jul 23 2025 - Cooler than normal conditions continue - Drizzle likely Thursday morning - Minor tidal flooding in the San Francisco Bay The 12Z sounding measured the marine layer depth at roughly 2,600 feet as the cut-off low drifts closer to the coast. This happened because the cut-off low lost some upper level divergence when the jet stream pushed north. Combined with some lift and SW flow provided by the cut-off low just offshore, there is a good chance for drizzle across a large portion of the Bay Area and Central Coast.
519 AM EDT Wed Jul 23 2025 High pressure will allow for dry conditions through Thursday morning.
507 AM MDT Wed Jul 23 2025 - Storms will initiate along a cold front this afternoon. Cold front will sag into the forecast area today and be the focus for afternoon convective initiation. Wednesday forecast will be different as a cold front drops through the area during the afternoon. associated with the warm front. The cold front should bring in drier dewpoints/humidity, but that will likely not occur until the evening.
643 AM EDT Wed Jul 23 2025 High pressure will build into the area from the northeast providing slightly cooler and less humid conditions through Thursday. Tranquil weather today thanks to high pressure continuing to hold in place across the Mid-Atlantic region. Humidity still on the lower side, so should feel a bit more comfortable throughout the day and especially into the overnight hours. High pressure will slide east into the Atlantic tonight, but will remain dry areawide with closest rain potential along the Carolina coastline.
- Post frontal zone impacts, the forecast turns warmer/hot for the weekend and early next with minimal rain chances. Updated the forecast a couple times for pesky showers and isolated thunderstorms migrating north on top of upper level low lifting north from Oklahoma. The main story today is the cold front that will move through the area this evening/overnight. Prior to the front, it will be warmer than the past couple days thanks to less cloud cover, so its really a very warm day.
/Issued 1212 AM CDT Wed Jul 23 2025/ /Overnight through Thursday/ A persistent weak trough across West Texas continues to support scattered convection which will remain well to our west, however, cloud cover associated with this convective activity will continue to stream across parts of the region overnight. This trough will begin to lift off to the northeast during the day Wednesday allowing stronger ridging to build into North Texas. As a result, we'll see some drying in the lower half of the atmosphere which should support an uptick in afternoon high temperatures through the end of the week.
539 AM MDT Wed Jul 23 2025 - Today and Thursday will be somewhat cooler, with a significant increase in shower and thunderstorm coverage in the wake of a cold frontal passage.
Upper level ridging remains anchored across the Tennessee Valley today. Temperatures have warmed into the low to mid 90s as forecast with heat index values in the 105-110+ range. The heat and humidity remain in the forecast through the end of the week associated with large scale ridging across the region.
1119 AM EDT Wed Jul 23 2025 High pressure will allow for dry conditions through Thursday morning.
245 PM MDT Wed Jul 23 2025 - Cooler conditions alongside widespread showers and thunderstorms expected today and tomorrow. Temperatures meanwhile should still remain on the cooler side with highs in the 70's to 80's, but much of our northern and eastern zones will see a slight warmup as cloud cover will relax and allow sunshine to return, a precursor to our weekend warmup.
Upper level ridging combined with south-southeasterly surface winds is continuing to produce seasonably hot and humid conditions for Deep South Texas which are expected to continue through tomorrow. The National Hurricane Center is currently monitoring a trough located in the northeastern Gulf that is currently producing showers and thunderstorms off the Alabama/Mississippi coast. This trough is expected to trek southwestward over the Gulf towards the Upper Texas Coast through the next few days.
Formidable 595dm mid level ridge setup to the west and north attempting to bridge over the top of the region into the Atlantic as a weak tropical wave located off the SC coast extending Southwestward into the NE Gulf continues to rotate around the mid level ridge. Forecast calling for lower 60's temps but dewpoints do dip into the upper 50s in the higher elevations.
(Rest of Today and Tonight) An amplifying mid/upper ridge of high pressure continues to be the dominant weather feature across the Tennessee Valley. As a result, moderate to major heat impacts will continue, with highs reaching the low to mid 90s and peak heat index values between 100-109 degrees again. Any convection that does form will wane after sunset, with a mostly clear and mild night with lows dropping into the lower 70s in most locations.
- More typical July weather (warmer and drier) returns for Thursday into the weekend. Upper trough was pushing through the region this afternoon with the trough axis moving through western zones. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible through the afternoon, decreasing from west to east this evening as the trough slides east and drier air and subsidence work in behind the trough.
1212 PM MDT Wed Jul 23 2025 - Today and Thursday will be somewhat cooler, with a significant increase in shower and thunderstorm coverage in the wake of a cold frontal passage.
230 PM EDT Wed Jul 23 2025 High pressure over the region will provide seasonable conditions through Thursday.
1111 AM MDT Wed Jul 23 2025 - Storms will initiate along a cold front this afternoon. Cold front sits across the CWA from northeast to southwest. Wednesday forecast will be different as a cold front drops through the area during the afternoon. associated with the warm front. The cold front should bring in drier dewpoints/humidity, but that will likely not occur until the evening.
436 PM EDT Wed Jul 23 2025 Much drier and somewhat cooler air will filter into the area today as a front remains stalled to the south. Building high pressure late in the week and over the weekend will result in less convection but potential for dangerous heat and humidity. 25" and the low 60's respectively, which is lowest we have seen in several weeks.
Strong southerly winds on the back side of the ridge, ahead of the frontal boundary are expected through the afternoon and evening hours. Despite decent mixing, dew points will remain in the lower 70s across the area.
(Tomorrow through Wednesday) Our CWA will be on the northwestern periphery of the mid-upper ridge tomorrow as it remains centered across the SE CONUS.
An upper level high pressure was over the Southeastern U. S with the ridge axis extending north into the eastern Great Lakes.
347 PM EDT Wed Jul 23 2025 High pressure will allow for dry conditions through Thursday morning.
With that in mind, temperatures will be cooler by a few degrees, topping off in the low 90s.
Today will be the final day of this heat wave as the upper ridge remains off to our northwest. Areas further west will remain hot and dry as they will be closer to the center of the ridge and subsidence should reign supreme. As for the heat, expect temperatures to climb into the mid 90s with dewpoints remaining in the low to mid 70s even after mixing out.
(This afternoon through Thursday) The combination of heat and humidity is producing 'feels like' temperatures from 100-105 for a chunk of central Alabama (where showers and thunderstorms have not occurred), with the higher end of that range most prevalent for roughly the western-half of central Alabama. Due to strong surface heating, a tempered ridge due to nearby troughing over the northern Gulf, and several surface boundaries, isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will occur through early-mid evening.
Once these storms fade with the sunset, expecting a mostly clear sky and lows dropping into the lower 70s.
Otherwise daytime temperatures will be slowly warming up about 4 to 9 degrees warmer than yesterday.
Updated at 1210 AM PDT Wed Jul 23 2025 - Cooler than normal conditions continue - Drizzle likely Thursday morning - Minor tidal flooding in the San Francisco Bay The 12Z sounding measured the marine layer depth at roughly 2,600 feet as the cut-off low drifts closer to the coast. This happened because the cut-off low lost some upper level divergence when the jet stream pushed north. Combined with some lift and SW flow provided by the cut-off low just offshore, there is a good chance for drizzle across a large portion of the Bay Area and Central Coast.
126 PM EDT Wed Jul 23 2025 High pressure allowing for dry conditions, scorching temperatures, and high humidity through Thursday.
242 PM MDT Wed Jul 23 2025 - Rain lingers into this evening, then slightly cooler tomorrow, with continued chances for showers and thunderstorms.
(This evening through Thursday night) Easterly wave/inverted trough moving westward across the eastern Gulf to the south of Pensacola early this afternoon. The cirrus shield associated with the convection has held temperatures down a bit to this point of the day, but the shield is thinning out some, with most areas now in the lower to middle 90s. Will hold off on advisories at this time as the areas with the hottest forecast highs (mid 90s) will also be the ones with the lowest dew points.
* Thursday/tomorrow has the highest potential for widespread activity, especially in northern California and east of the Cascades. 00" - Gusts of 40-60 mph - Abundant lightning - Some isolated areas could see heavy rainfall rates - A Red Flag Warning is in effect for abundant lightning Further Details: An upper level trough is offshore from San Francisco, still far enough away that residual warm air aloft with weak ridging over our area will limit instability this afternoon/evening. Cumulus buildups are expected over the higher terrain, and a few isolated thunderstorms are expected to manage to develop over northern California and from the southern Oregon Cascades eastward. It will be a different story on Thursday as the low tracks inland toward Sacramento and kicks the ridge out of our area.
612 PM CDT Wed Jul 23 2025 Upper level ridging combined with south-southeasterly surface winds is continuing to produce seasonably hot and humid conditions for Deep South Texas which are expected to continue through tomorrow. The National Hurricane Center is currently monitoring a trough located in the northeastern Gulf that is currently producing showers and thunderstorms off the Alabama/Mississippi coast. This trough is expected to trek southwestward over the Gulf towards the Upper Texas Coast through the next few days.
Some rain cooled air may temporary provide some cooler temps this evening but expect a generally warm and humid late July FL summertime night.
549 PM MDT Wed Jul 23 2025 - Rain lingers into this evening, then slightly cooler tomorrow, with continued chances for showers and thunderstorms.
616 PM EDT Wed Jul 23 2025 High pressure will allow for dry conditions through Thursday morning.
High pressure is suppressing convection across the region. The upper ridge will strengthen tonight and keep our CWA rain free. The ridge will remain over TX through the short term, and this will result in a dry forecast for us.
Much quieter wx this evening (than previous evenings) as the northern part of an upper trough shears away across Montana into North Dakota, and the southern part leaves an upper low in the Pacific off California.
724 PM EDT Wed Jul 23 2025 High pressure allowing for dry conditions, scorching temperatures, and high humidity through Thursday.
An upper level system moves west over the central Gulf, shifting an upper ridge over the Southeast northward a bit, and easing the excessive heat over the forecast area for a couple of days.
551 PM MDT Wed Jul 23 2025 - Cooler conditions alongside widespread showers and thunderstorms expected today and tomorrow. Temperatures meanwhile should still remain on the cooler side with highs in the 70's to 80's, but much of our northern and eastern zones will see a slight warmup as cloud cover will relax and allow sunshine to return, a precursor to our weekend warmup.
After some linger showers in eastern Arizona this evening, much drier and warmer conditions arrive for the rest of the week and into the weekend. Most longer-range models indicate that the ridge may push back westward enough early week, potentially allowing for an easterly wave to move through northern Mexico. This may open the door to deeper moisture once again, but it looks short-lived, as the west coast trough fights back.
623 PM CDT Wed Jul 23 2025 - Scattered to widespread showers and storms along and ahead of a cold front will lead to localized flooding. - The cold front clears out from west to east on Thursday leading to clearing skies as a ridge of high pressure builds across the Upper Great Lakes through late-week with temperatures above normal.
318 PM MDT Wed Jul 23 2025 KEY MESSAGES: - Warmer with isolated showers today.
Broad surface through lower level troughing continues to shift westward through the northeastern Gulf this evening and is allowing an Atlantic ridge to extend its reach westward across Florida. Meanwhile, an upper level low has been centered over the Florida Straits had contributed some upper level support and slightly lower mid level heights. Temperatures are seasonable and in the lower 80s with dew points in the mid 70s. The surface through lower level troughing will shift further westward into the Gulf overnight, handing control more fully to the incoming Atlantic ridge. Expect overnight lows to remain in the lower 80s with dew points holding in the mid 70s. Broad surface through lower level troughing is migrating further westward into the Gulf of Mexico and letting an Atlantic ridge build further westward.
Temps will bottom out in the low to mid 70s tonight with light and variable winds.
630 PM CDT Wed Jul 23 2025 (This evening through Thursday night) Easterly wave/inverted trough moving westward across the eastern Gulf to the south of Pensacola early this afternoon. The cirrus shield associated with the convection has held temperatures down a bit to this point of the day, but the shield is thinning out some, with most areas now in the lower to middle 90s. Will hold off on advisories at this time as the areas with the hottest forecast highs (mid 90s) will also be the ones with the lowest dew points.
A long wave trough over the eastern Pacific will remain in place through the weekend helping to keep temperatures a few degrees below normal. A weak closed low just off the central California coast will open and become absorbed into the main long wave trough.
205 AM MDT Thu Jul 24 2025 - Today will be a little warmer, with a significant increase in shower and thunderstorm coverage in the wake of a cold frontal passage.
Currently in the upper levels, broad ridging is holding across the southeastern US as an inverted trough slips west from the Caribbean into the southern Gulf. At the surface, the weak trough that passed over Florida earlier this week is slowly sliding west through the central Gulf, while Atlantic ridging builds into northern Florida from the east.
1051 PM MDT Wed Jul 23 2025 - Rain lingers into this evening, then slightly cooler tomorrow, with continued chances for showers and thunderstorms.
After morning clouds, the afternoon should be partly cloudy and dry with slightly cooler temperatures: highs will be in the low to mid 80s. A cold front and a prefrontal trough is present across the Tri- State area. There is moisture/instability along the trough, but more limited and shear is very weak as well. The prefrontal trough has been slow to develop convection, but it is finally going and will likely continue the rest of the afternoon and into the evening as it moves further east. Overall, pops will be likely over most of the CWA for the rest of the afternoon and through tonight and as the prefrontal trough and front move through the Tri-State area. High temps tomorrow will be cooler than the last several days and will be around normal, middle 80s.
158 AM EDT Thu Jul 24 2025 High pressure will remain over the region providing dry weather through Tonight. Tranquil weather today thanks to high pressure continuing to hold in place across the Mid-Atlantic region. High pressure will slide east into the Atlantic tonight, but will remain dry areawide with closest rain potential along the Carolina coastline. A large upper level ridge will propagate over the southeastern CONUS and increase heights over the Mid-Atlantic to bring unseasonably warm temperatures. High temperatures over the next few days will steadily increase into the 80s and 90s region-wide which will be about 5-10 degrees warmer than average. The heat index could be as high as between 80-95 to the west of the Blue Ridge.
The 596 dam ridge which has been plaguing us for a week or so remains in place and will result in another very hot day today. The exception is near the Tennessee River in West Tennessee and in portions of northeast Mississippi where a backdoor cold front should keep temperatures slightly cooler.
153 AM EDT Thu Jul 24 2025 High pressure will remain in control today, which will bring sunny and hot conditions.
Warmer and drier conditions set in through this weekend.
Upper ridge will continue to build over our area starting a heating trend with above normal temperatures. A weak trough on the western periphery of the strong upper ridging centered over the Southeastern U. Meanwhile a cold front from a northern weather system will be advancing through Kansas and pushing into the OK/TX Panhandles under the troughing but stalling in far northwest Oklahoma. Expecting convection initiation to start by mid afternoon under the trough and ahead of the surface front across northwest Oklahoma when diurnal heating breaks the weak cap into moderate to low-end strongly unstable environment. Although the severe wind risk lowers by midnight, expecting storms to be ongoing overnight across our west and north, much of it coming off the Panhandles where the surface front will be digging with the low-level jet keeping it going.
142 AM EDT Thu Jul 24 2025 High pressure keeping us dry, but very hot and humid for the balance of the week.
222 AM MDT Thu Jul 24 2025 KEY MESSAGES: - Dry and warmer weather expected today.
This low is expected to make its way westward into the northwest Gulf by late tonight, so we are not expecting any impacts from this system.
1144 PM MDT Wed Jul 23 2025 - Cooler conditions alongside widespread showers and thunderstorms expected today and tomorrow. Temperatures meanwhile should still remain on the cooler side with highs in the 70's to 80's, but much of our northern and eastern zones will see a slight warmup as cloud cover will relax and allow sunshine to return, a precursor to our weekend warmup.
1235 AM CDT Thu Jul 24 2025 - Scattered to widespread showers and storms along and ahead of a cold front will lead to localized flooding. - The cold front clears out from west to east on Thursday leading to clearing skies as a ridge of high pressure builds across the Upper Great Lakes through late-week with temperatures above normal.
At the surface, high pressure will stretch from the Carolinas west into Tennessee and Kentucky.
Low pressure spinning off the California coast will keep unseasonably low heights and dry southwest flow aloft over our area, resulting in below normal temperatures and dry conditions over most of the region.
159 AM EDT Thu Jul 24 2025 High pressure will remain in control today, which will bring sunny and hot conditions.
Overnight temperatures remain mild with lows in the low to mid 70s.
A broad mid/upper level ridge will remain the dominant weather feature across the area, but it will slide a little further to the west today.
At the surface, high pressure will stretch from the Carolinas west into Tennessee and Kentucky. The story this week will be the upper ridge/upper high that on Friday is still over the Southeast.
Imagine this will continue to trend lower as a trough over the west helps push the high pressure ridge and moisture plume further east as dry air from the Desert Southwest replaces it.