Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1245 PM CDT Sat Aug 2 2025 - Stagnant weather pattern remains in place with a strong high pressure over the region trapping smoke at the surface. - A Rex blocking pattern sets up over the Northland leading to off and on rain and thunderstorm chances through the work week.
- Daily shower and storm chances (20-30% chance) will continue through the week, with the highest chances being each evening and overnight.
After a cool start in the upper 50s and lower 60s this morning, temperatures have warmed into the low-to-mid 70s as of 15Z across central KY and southern IN. Continued NE flow from high pressure north of the region will keep temperatures below normal and will keep dewpoints comfortable in the upper 50s and low 60s into this afternoon. High temperatures should make it into the low-to-mid 80s. On the periphery of the high we have mild and dry NE winds in the Ohio Valley, maintaining fresh and cool (by the standards of this summer thus far) conditions.
A weak cold front pushes south through the area Sunday morning. This will bring slightly cooler temperatures and drier air.
1230 PM CDT Sat Aug 2 2025 - High pressure will bring cooler than normal temperatures and comfortable humidity levels this weekend.
High pressure remains draped across the area from the North Atlantic into the Gulf.
However, widespread heat indices in the low 100s are still present.
Satellite imagery showing a tight upper low tracking along the OR/NV border this morning. Afternoon heating/instability and lift from the upper low will support another round of showers and thunderstorms. Overall, expect 20-40% chance of thunderstorms across elevated terrain today, with coverage skewing toward the higher end of that range across SE Oregon and higher terrain of SW Idaho south of the Snake Plain. Sunday is looking like an active day as a stronger low pressure system and accompanying cold front will push through the region.
Flat high pressure ridge along the US-MX border region with broad troughing across the Northeast Pacific is resulting in a light southwesterly flow aloft across the Mojave Desert and Southern Great Basin.
We continue to watch the position of an H500 high pressure system centered near Tuscon, AZ. With more influence from the high as well, thunderstorm coverage will be a bit more limited, but the severe weather threat will still be there.
Mid afternoon dewpoints in the low 50s suggest we'll have to get quite cool for that to happen tonight, so for now the forecast leans against it. Kimble Ridging building over the Southwest US gradually expands eastward with time, so eventually we'll see a warm up. But a trough currently over the southeast US will gradually retrograde westward over the next several days, helping to delay the onset of the higher temperatures. A related inverted trough at the surface also pushes westward and brings a little better humidity.
142 PM EDT Sat Aug 2 2025 High pressure will remain overhead through the weekend and much of the upcoming week.
1229 PM EDT Sat Aug 2 2025 Relatively cooler and drier conditions can be expected over the weekend. KEY MESSAGES: - Cool and dry conditions today --------------------------------------------------------------- Building high pressure will maintain dry, benign weather conditions today.
125 PM EDT Sat Aug 2 2025 High pressure will remain overhead through the weekend and much of the upcoming week.
Showers and storms are expected to develop across the High Plains, and congeal into an MCS that progresses across Kansas late tonight. After Sunday evening, a lobe of the upper ridge across the southwestern CONUS starts to nose into the central plains.
1145 AM EDT Sat Aug 2 2025 Relatively cooler and drier conditions can be expected over the weekend. KEY MESSAGES: - Cool and dry conditions today --------------------------------------------------------------- Building high pressure will maintain dry, benign weather conditions today. KEY MESSAGES: - Quiet and dry conditions continue into Sunday - Rocky Mountain wildfire smoke may linger ---------------------------------------------------------------- Confidence remains high that dry and quiet weather will likely continue into Sunday under high pressure. Hazy conditions from Rocky Mountain wildfires, which have affected the Great Plains, may reach the region late Sunday morning with the progression of a weak trough.
As the high drifts to the E into the interior NE CONUS by Sunday, some return flow will begin to emerge once again.
1014 PM EDT Sat Aug 2 2025 Cooler and drier conditions are expected over the weekend. Previous Discussion: Tranquil weather continues under broad high pressure established over the Great Lakes region. Radiational cooling will likely prompt low temperatures in the low to mid 50s areawide.
723 PM EDT Sat Aug 2 2025 Cooler and mainly dry conditions through the weekend. A seasonably cool weekend across the region as high pressure gradually traverses north of the region. Highs today will top out in the mid 70s to 80 for the lowlands, with mid 60s to low 70s across the mountains. Sunday will feature warmer temperatures (~ 5 degrees) amid a FEW/SCT fair weather Cu field.
716 PM EDT Sat Aug 2 2025 High pressure will remain overhead through the weekend and much of the upcoming week.
Large consensus of an inverted trough over the eastern half of the mid-state bringing at least a medium chance for showers and thunderstorms to areas east of I-65 early tomorrow morning and likely sticking around through the early afternoon hours. For the rest of the area, we'll remain dry with highs in the low to mid 80s.
We were a little bit more active in the afternoon with a broken cloud line that initially clung north of the of the Lower Keys.
Like today, the higher chances for showers will be to the east.
Issued 915 PM CDT Sat Aug 2 2025 High pressure remains in place with mostly clear conditions overhead outside of the smoke continuing to cause air quality issues into tomorrow.
730 PM EDT Sat Aug 2 2025 A large area of high pressure will dominate the region through most of the upcoming week. Fair weather is expected through Sunday with a large area of high pressure over the region. Clear skies and weak winds tonight will result in cooler temperatures once again, with lows in the mid 40s over the interior higher terrain to the mid and upper 50s closer to the lakes. Sunday afternoon temperatures will warm a few degrees to above normal with values in the low to mid 80s for most areas and mid to upper 70s for the higher terrain. High pressure remains in control allowing for dry weather to continue into the start of the new work week. The only changes will be the position of the high and how that will impact temperatures.
729 PM EDT Sat Aug 2 2025 Relatively cooler and drier conditions can be expected over the weekend. KEY MESSAGES: - Seasonably cool and dry tonight --------------------------------------------------------------- Tranquil weather continues under broad high pressure established over the Great Lakes region.
However, widespread heat indices in the low 100s are still present. (00Z TAFS) Weak ridging over the peninsula with the axis centered over S FL continues light flow over the area late evening through early morning and onshore/SW flow late morning through early evening.
120 AM EDT Sun Aug 3 2025 Cool Canadian high pressure will extend into the region from the north through the weekend into Monday. Meanwhile, a developing area of low pressure off the Carolina Coast will slowly move eastward out into the Atlantic. Lows will fall into the lower to mid 60s, with some upper 50s in the typically cooler locations across the northern Piedmont---marking the coolest temperatures since the first week of June. Lows Sunday night will be comparable to tonight, consisting mainly in the lower and mid 60s, with some upper 50s possible in outlying and rural areas across the northern Piedmont and coastal plain.
Issued 355 AM CDT Sun Aug 3 2025 Today and Tonight: It will be quiet again today under high pressure, with plenty of sunshine and light winds expected along with near normal high temperatures. The main weather concern will be lingering wildfire smoke under the high.
125 AM EDT Sun Aug 3 2025 Cool Canadian high pressure will extend into the region from the north through the weekend into Monday. Meanwhile, a developing area of low pressure off the Carolina Coast will slowly move eastward out into the Atlantic. Lows will fall into the lower to mid 60s, with some upper 50s in the typically cooler locations across the northern Piedmont---marking the coolest temperatures since the first week of June. Lows Sunday night will be comparable to tonight, consisting mainly in the lower and mid 60s, with some upper 50s possible in outlying and rural areas across the northern Piedmont and coastal plain.
A weak perturbation coming off the Rockies and rounding the upper ridge to our southwest is expected to develop thunderstorms across the High Plains this evening. After Monday, the upper ridge begins to build northeast with mid- level heights increasing across our area and low-level flow steady from the south through the rest of the week.
Updated at 1231 AM CDT Sun Aug 3 2025 - Thunderstorms are possible early this morning and again this evening, with the highest chances focused off the Caprock.
(Today through Monday afternoon) WV imagery this morning shows the upper ridge centered over Baja del Norte/northern Gulf of California, and extending east through West Texas and Southeast New Mexico into central Texas.
Vertically integrated and near-surface smoke forecasts from the HRRR, RAP and Canadian all show the large area of smoke remaining in place through at least Monday as it is trapped/stuck under a high pressure system.
Otherwise, the previous forecast remains on track with cooler temperatures and additional rain/storms possible especially east of I-65. The higher chances for showers will be to the east.
Daily rain chances will continue through the week as a trough remains parked over the region.
Afternoon temperatures will reach the low 80s with light winds and lake breeze formations by midday. Little change is expected to start the new work week, with high pressure gradually shifting eastward while maintaining control over the region's sensible weather through at least midweek.
300 AM EDT Sun Aug 3 2025 Cool Canadian high pressure will extend into the region from the north through the weekend into Monday. High pressure (1025 mb) centered over PA will continue to extend into our region today and tonight. All the lows will be 10 to 15 degrees below normal for what generally is the period of the year (summer) in which the warmest overnight lows occur in NC. However, the mid/upper levels should see the development of troughiness to our west along the MS River and western OH Valley.
Near the surface, a lee side trough of low pressure remains anchored in eastern Colorado. With that, thunderstorm development will be possible late afternoon/early evening as H5 vort maxima transition southeast through the high plains of western Kansas, interacting with a widespread field of steepening low/mid- level lapse rates. Other than variable strong outflow winds from passing thunderstorms overnight, south-southeast winds around 10 to 20kt with gusts up to 25kt are forecast to persist through much of the period as a lee side trough of low pressure remains anchored in extreme southeast Colorado.
We are still mainly under the influence of the wedge of high pressure that continues to build SW down the eastern seaboard. This would also put the higher amounts across central GA being in closer proximity to the stationary frontal boundary.
The best forcing associated with the low-level jet will remain largely to our west overnight, so expect storms to exhibit a weakening trend as they move into western Oklahoma.
Overnight lows will range between the lower to upper 50s.
136 AM EDT Sun Aug 3 2025 Cooler and mainly dry conditions through the weekend. Today we have fairly zonal flow aloft and a bubble of high pressure promoting dry air at most levels. Temperatures will remain below seasonable with drier air and dewpoints only in the low 60s. Monday should remain fairly dry with upper level ridging building in promoting more dry air.
Key Messages: * Quiet weather continues with near normal temperatures High pressure remains in control. Flow is not strong enough to prevent sea breezes from developing, so it will be slightly cooler for a time along the immediate coast. * Highs mid 80s with lows mid 50s to lower 60s, to go along with cooler seabreezes each day. The governing feature driving this is a sprawling 1027-1030 mb ridge of high pressure which builds southward from Quebec through Tue, then settles over Nova Scotia through at least Fri. High pressure continues to build over the waters through Monday.
Moisture continues to surge into the area as flow aloft turns onshore on Monday with a trough dipping into the region. Flow aloft remains southwesterly through most of the week as the trough meanders over the region, essentially stuck between two ridges.
The H5 ridge continues to build across the greater Four Corners region, but remaining local moisture will still bring some showers during the afternoon.
Drier air continues to advect into the region in the wake of a summer-style cold front, with dewpoints already slipping into the upper 60s across AR, parts of north MS, and parts of north LA early this morning. Heading through the work week, daytime temps will begin to trend back up as mid level ridging attempts to build back in from the west.
209 AM EDT Sun Aug 3 2025 A stalled cold front keeps cooler than normal conditions in the area through the rest of weekend with chances for rain again Sunday. Key Message(s): - Cooler Conditions Continue with Rain chances Favoring the CSRA. This will lead to cooler highs in the Central Savannah River Area, where blended guidance indicates that highs will struggle to reach 80F where elsewhere, highs will still be well below average, into the mid-80s. This will quickly return PWAT's to near or above average throughout Monday as we come around the influence of mid- upper level troughing to the west, with southwesterly flow aloft and weak isentropic lift overspreading the area.
142 AM CDT Sun Aug 3 2025 - Stagnant weather pattern remains in place with a strong high pressure over the region trapping smoke at the surface. - A Rex blocking pattern sets up over the Northland leading to off and on rain and thunderstorm chances through the mid week, largely for the MN side.
The models continue to trend a bit farther south and west with the inverted trof axis, so while it will be tough to rule out a spotty shower across our southwest, the better chances will remain south/west of our area. Lows tonight will be in the mid 50s to lower 60s with highs on Monday mostly in the lower 80s.
- By mid week the forecast area will be between an upper level ridge centered over the southwest U. and the subtropical ridge to the east.
- Cooler than normal weather continues through Monday with highs in the 80s and lows in the upper 50s to 60s.
(Today through next Sunday) WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:The upper pattern is on the move with the southern subtropical ridge sliding westward toward Southern California, While the northern stream ridge will be pushed east into Ontario, Canada. This will allow for more progressive westerly flow to over the northern tier, with a new upper trough pushing across the Pacific NW through Monday. Models incorporating a more active flow pattern in location, have shown better agreement having the trough clip far northern Nevada. Also for Monday afternoon as the upper trough passes to our north, central NV will see a increase in SW winds for Monday afternoon, and with already low surface humidity in place, will need to watch for the possibility of critical fire weather conditions for White Pine and NE Nye counties as wind are forecast to be strongest.
300 AM EDT Sun Aug 3 2025 Cooler and drier conditions are expected over the weekend. KEY MESSAGES: - Pleasant conditions continue today --------------------------------------------------------------- Quiet and dry conditions will continue today under high pressure. Otherwise, daytime high temperatures will be near or slightly below average; lingering in the low-80s. Temperatures will be slightly warmer than Sunday, but comfortable dew points are anticipated to continue as low-level flow from the southeast will cause dry air to sink over the western ridges and overspread into western Pennsylvania.
A weak cold front pushes south through the area Sunday morning. This will bring slightly cooler temperatures and drier air. The upper level high to the south builds northward over the Central Rockies Monday. Temperatures climb into the lower to mid 90s across northeast Colorado.
The weather should remain dry through tonight over South Florida as high pressure remains over the region. The overall synoptic scenario will be defined by a broad high pressure system expanding over the NE CONUS, while a mid/upper level trough/low complex pushes an associated sfc boundary into the Florida panhandle today. Meanwhile, high pressure remains in control of the rest of the Florida peninsula, keeping a generally seasonal weather pattern across SoFlo through the rest of the weekend.
(Today through Monday) Model trends remain fairly consistent in having broad high pressure dominating the NE CONUS, while mid-upper level troughiness over the eastern states will keep an associated sfc boundary stretching across the Florida panhandle through Monday. Meanwhile, high pressure remains in control of the rest of the Florida peninsula, keeping a generally seasonal weather pattern across SoFlo during the next couple of days.
145 AM EDT Sun Aug 3 2025 High pressure over the Great Lakes region will remain in place through Monday.
West Central Texas will remain in north to northwest flow aloft as an upper level ridge remain centered across the Desert Southwest. Overnight lows will be in the low 70s.
125 AM EDT Sun Aug 3 2025 Cooler and drier conditions are expected over the weekend. Previous Discussion: Tranquil weather continues under broad high pressure established over the Great Lakes region. Radiational cooling will likely prompt low temperatures in the low to mid 50s areawide. KEY MESSAGES: - Dry and seasonable weather expected through Monday - Low probability for surface impacts of wildfire smoke ---------------------------------------------------------------- Weak upper level flow and high pressure centered northeast of the region will continue to support dry weather across the Upper Ohio River Valley. Shift of the high slightly east combined with subtle height rises means temperature will see a gradual rise, remaining near normal Sunday and trending toward about 5 degrees above normal.
on Sunday, with fairly widespread convection expected in the High Plains tonight and again Sunday night. That said, we are on the western periphery of the lingering high pressure, so it is not impossible we see a shower or two through Sunday night if the upstream system is stronger than progged. Conditions will begin to warm up steadily after Monday, as an upper ridge in the southwestern U. However, some rather potent vorticity maxima will be ejecting from a deepening longwave trough in the northwestern U.
351 AM EDT Sun Aug 3 2025 Dry conditions, low humidity, and seasonably cool temperatures are expected through Monday as broad high pressure drifts across the Northeast.
Persisting Wildfire Smoke Upper level and near surface smoke remain an impact today and possibly into Monday as high pressure begins its slow shift eastward this afternoon/evening.
109 AM EDT Sun Aug 3 2025 High pressure dominating the region will yield a prolonged period of dry weather across eastern New York and western New England.
(Today and tonight) Broad ridging is stretching across the FL peninsula as a trough axis propagates off the NE Coast. Pushed south by the trough, a weak frontal boundary has stalled over N FL, with some convection continuing to linger early this morning in the vicinity of the boundary over the Nature Coast.
Thus, we will start the week with temperatures in the low 80s, trending to near 90 by the end of the week. As was mentioned in the previous forecast package, we will be close to the ridge-riding storm track.
(Today through Monday) The subtropical ridge is centered to our west this morning resulting in northwesterly flow aloft over TX. The ridge will shift slowly to the east through the short term.
While last night's 00z sounding revealed moisture lingering in the lower levels of our atmosphere, CIMSS MIMIC PWAT suggests our area is currently in a dry slot aloft. Temperatures across the island chain currently sit in the lower 80s.
Winds will be out of the east around 5 to 10 mph with clearer skies allowing temperatures to reach the low 80s inland and mid to upper 70s along the immediate lakeshore. With an upper level ridge over the Rockies slowly inching east, mid level flow will turn to the southeast.
This activity will be driven by dynamic lift ahead of an approaching upper trough interacting with elevated instability. Blowing dust possible Sunday evening with cold front and outflows. The southern/eastern Blues in Oregon will carry a 10-15% chance of showers overnight as an upper trough pushes onto the Pac NW coast. Shower and thunderstorm development will increase across SE Oregon and west-central Idaho mtns from mid-morning Sunday through early afternoon as the dynamic lift in advance of the upper trough taps into elevated instabiltiy. A low chance of showers and thunderstorms hangs on Sunday night across Baker County and the w-central Idaho mtns as the upper trough crosses into central Idaho. High temperatures are 8-12 degrees cooler than Sunday and will be accompanied by breezy northwest winds.
Steering flow winds aloft point out upper level longwave trofs holding both CONUS coasts, with a (cut-off) ridge of upper level high pressure extending from the Dakotas all the way up into north central Canada. A belt of westerlies aloft running from California to southeast Kansas cuts through the upper level ridge, with the remaining higher heights aloft extending down from the central high plains down into the desert southwest. That means that this upper low circulation over the Dakotas is stuck over the region for the next couple of days until better steering flow winds move in as higher heights previously described from Canada down to the desert southwest flatten/propagate east.
120 AM EDT Sun Aug 3 2025 High pressure will remain overhead through the weekend and much of the upcoming week.
642 AM CDT Sun Aug 3 2025 - Stagnant weather pattern remains in place with a strong high pressure over the region trapping smoke at the surface. - A Rex blocking pattern sets up over the Northland leading to off and on rain and thunderstorm chances through the mid week, largely for the MN side.
- Dry and a couple degrees cooler for the I-25 corridor, Mountains and mountain valleys.
631 AM EDT Sun Aug 3 2025 Cooler and mainly dry conditions through the weekend. Today we have fairly zonal flow aloft and a bubble of high pressure promoting dry air at most levels. Temperatures will remain below seasonable with drier air and dewpoints only in the low 60s. Monday should remain fairly dry with upper level ridging building in promoting more dry air.
Slight chances for afternoon showers and thunderstorms return near the middle of the week over the higher terrain. High pressure continues to build across southern Arizona today, remaining over the area through at least Monday. The high shifts to the east and over New Mexico as we go through the middle of the week. Still a low confidence forecast as the strength of the high may inhibit storm initiation. The higher terrain has the best chances of seeing any activity but even that looks limited at best.