Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
942 AM PDT Mon Jul 14 2025 High pressure across California will bring slight warming today.
pdf An area of weak low pressure has developed over the Gulf Stream off the east coast of FL today. This low will enhance ENE flow shifting the Atlantic sea breeze further inland this afternoon. The late start to convection today has allowed for temperatures to soar into the low to upper 90s and heat indices approaching Heat Adv criteria. The low will gradually shift westward toward central/north-central FL tonight into early Tuesday morning.
1257 PM MDT Mon Jul 14 2025 - Warmer temperatures in the 90s to low 100s to start the week (hottest on Tuesday) before slightly cooler temperatures in the 70s/80s mid week.
(Rest of Today and Tonight) In the mid/upper-levels, a ridge of high pressure will remain centered across the southern Gulf Coast states throughout the near term period. At the surface, our forecast area will remain under the influence of high pressure with light/variable environmental flow expected to continue through the period. In the absence of synoptic scale forcing for ascent, current thinking is that thunderstorms will continue to develop later this morning, initially across the higher terrain of northeast AL/southern TN, with redevelopment in this same region throughout the afternoon.
Broad high pressure currently located over southern California will continue to gradually shift eastward through the beginning of this week. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are currently initiating along the higher terrain. Guidance indicates that activity will ride outflows into the lower valleys and last through the evening.
- Localized elevated fire weather threat continues across the higher elevations. With the marine layer forecast to deepen tonight ahead of an approaching mid/upper level trough, low clouds will spread back inland into the coastal adjacent valleys. Once low clouds dissipate across inland areas, temperatures will be some 5-15 degrees cooler tomorrow afternoon in response to the trough aloft.
Today is still on track to be the hottest day of the week, with temperatures expected to make it up to 104 in the Lower Treasure Valley and around 100 degrees elsewhere in the Snake Plain. Northwest winds will begin gusting this afternoon ahead of an incoming trough, with the strongest gusts (20-25 MPH with isolated pockets of 30 MPH) near the western Magic Valley.
- Sunny and warm Tuesday with temperatures around 90 degrees and heat indices in the low 90s.
- Warmer on Tue-Wed with a brief cooldown followed by rising temperatures this coming weekend. This lines up well with where we are seeing the highest PWAT values as well as the highest instability.
225 PM EDT Mon Jul 14 2025 A weak cold front will settle south of the area by this evening as high pressure builds across the area tonight and Tuesday.
- Thunderstorms are looking likely for Wed afternoon and evening due to a wave of low pressure and cold front moving through srn WI.
(This evening through Tuesday) A high pressure system will deepen today limiting the amount of diurnal convection in the region. While widespread convection is less likely because of the high pressure, isolated convection can still occur with instability values several thousands,moderate lapse rates, and higher PW values. Due to the easterly flow interacting with the flow around the high pressure convergence could occur.
The upper high centered over the Southwest will begin to be impinged upon by a digging northern stream trough across the PacNW. This will begin to nudge the high eastward which is a positive trend for pulling up southerly moisture into our area. A batch of elevated moisture caught between the digging low and the top of the ridge will be accelerated across our area tomorrow and theoretically provide a boost in thunderstorm coverage.
617 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025 - Scattered thunderstorms are expected this afternoon in response to an upper trough. - An upper ridge will build over the region through midweek, lowering precipitation chances while supporting a warming trend.
619 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025 Updated at 617 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025 - Shower/thunderstorm chances continue through the end of the week, mainly in/near the higher terrain (30-70% there, 10-30% elsewhere). (This afternoon through Tuesday night) WV imagery this afternoon shows an upper ridge extending from just of the SoCal coast into the Central Plains, and another covering the Gulf Coast states, with a stubborn col running SW-NE through Texas. Aside from the usual orographic activity over the higher terrain due to easterly upslope flow, CAMs develop a region of convection to the southeast in line w/the orientation of the col, and this will result in isolated convection tonight, mainly over the lower Trans Pecos. Tuesday night, the LLJ increases a bit, and mixing will keep overnight lows a couple of degrees warmer than tonight.
625 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025 - Warmer and muggier today and Tuesday with highs in the mid-80s to near 90s.
753 PM EDT Mon Jul 14 2025 Weak upper ridge will begin to break down, leading to lower daytime temperatures and higher rain chances during the mid week period. A new upper ridge should then build in from the east to end the week with slowly warming temperatures. Tuesday: A weakening trough will be approaching Florida with dry air located on the northwest flank. The lower PWAT air will likely limit convection slightly, but the overall extent of coverage should still be at least chance. High temperatures will also be lower on Tuesday as 1000/ 850 mb thicknesses fall to 1415 m (or about 10 m cooler than Monday) due to the upper trough.
550 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025 - Warmer and humid through Tuesday.
We'll remain beneath weak upper level troughing on Tuesday, though an upper level ridge across the Deep South will attempt to build further west into portions of eastern North and Central Texas. The weak troughing will bring additional chances for showers and storms to the region on Tuesday, but the best chances will be confined to North Texas and areas west of I-35 in Central Texas. /Issued 1200 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025/ /Tuesday Night Onward/ An upper level ridge will continue to build into the region through the remainder of the period, effectively shutting off rain chances for most of the area.
Due to the easterly flow interacting with the flow around the high pressure convergence could occur.
Taking the warmer morning and the expected highs into consideration, more locations are under an elevated risk today.
549 PM MDT Mon Jul 14 2025 - Warmer temperatures in the 90s to low 100s to start the week (hottest on Tuesday) before slightly cooler temperatures in the 70s/80s mid week.
539 PM MDT Mon Jul 14 2025 - An upper level trough brings a Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms through this evening.
The low clouds are expected to push a bit further inland into the adjacent vlys overnight. Interior areas will be feeling much cooler as increasing onshore flow and a deepening marine layer usher in cooler air off the ocean.
Overnight lows will drop into the low 70s areawide.
723 PM EDT Mon Jul 14 2025 Atlantic high pressure will prevail into the upcoming weekend. The lower PWAT air will likely limit convection slightly, but the overall extent of coverage should still be at least chance. High temperatures will also be lower on Tuesday as 1000/ 850 mb thicknesses fall to 1415 m (or about 10 m cooler than Monday) due to the undercutting TUTT.
758 PM EDT Mon Jul 14 2025 A weak cold front will settle south of the area by this evening as high pressure builds across the area tonight and Tuesday.
709 PM EDT Mon Jul 14 2025 Bermuda high pressure along with an inland trough will dominate with mainly localized showers and thunderstorms each afternoon. While SBCAPE remains high, the highest MLCAPE has shifted inland, which is where the few remaining storms that survive continue to thrive. The lack of any outside forcing and a weaker Piedmont trough compared to yesterday will bring an end to shower and thunderstorm chances locally within the next hour. Synoptic pattern remains essentially the same through the near term period perhaps a slightly stronger ridge to the west Tuesday.
333 PM MDT Mon Jul 14 2025 - An upper level trough brings a Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms through this evening.
Convective activity has all but dwindled at this hour with only a few straggler showers remaining across the lowlands.
Elsewhere, drier air associated with ridging over the Gulf will limit rain potential for the CWA through the weekend. Temperatures will trend near to slightly above seasonal, with highs ranging from the low 90s along the coast to upper 90s inland.
pdf Lowered temps heading into the evening hours as showers and storms helped to bring temps into the lower 80s and upper 70s sooner than earlier forecast. Winds will become near calm during the overnight hours as temps fall into the lower to mid 70s area wide. pdf An area of weak low pressure has developed over the Gulf Stream off the east coast of FL today. This low will enhance ENE flow shifting the Atlantic sea breeze further inland this afternoon. The late start to convection today has allowed for temperatures to soar into the low to upper 90s and heat indices approaching Heat Adv criteria. The low will gradually shift westward toward central/north-central FL tonight into early Tuesday morning.
The big winners in terms of rainfall accumulation were in the Lower Keys, where 1-2" of rain fell in a short amount of time. Weak low pressure tries to develop in the vicinity of Florida heading through the first half of the week. As the weak low pressure area shifts to the west and high pressure builds in behind, breezes will freshen becoming southeast to south at first, before becoming east to southeast for mid to late week.
The upper high centered over the Southwest will begin to be impinged upon by a digging northern stream trough across the PacNW. This will begin to nudge the high eastward which is a positive trend for pulling up southerly moisture into our area. A batch of elevated moisture caught between the digging low and the top of the ridge will be accelerated across our area tomorrow and theoretically provide a boost in thunderstorm coverage. In the zonal upper-level flow north of I-70, PWATs rise to 125-150% of normal leading to higher chances of afternoon convection over the high terrain north of I-70.
- Hot and humid conditions will persist across the Mid-South through late week, with high temperatures generally in the low to mid 90s each day.
More widespread threat for storms arrives Wednesday night with a cold front.
- Temperatures climb back to around 90 by midweek, continuing to gradually increase into the lower 90s through the weekend. Temps/dews where in the lower 70s.
High pressure remains anchored across the Southeast today with an inverted trough off to our east stretched through the Carolinas, GA, and down into FL. Greater coverage of convection will be found closer to the inverted trough axis. Highs will be near normal in the lower 90s.
325 AM EDT Tue Jul 15 2025 High pressure moves into the area today bringing mostly sunny skies and warm, muggy conditions.
An upper level trough is moving into the Pacific Northwest, weakening the ridge. High temperatures today are forecast to be around 5-10 degrees cooler in the interior, with 90's likely for most areas.
Discussion: Currently early this morning, weak flow is in place aloft with 500mb ridging of over 5,910m centered over the eastern U. Bermuda High pressure is also in place over the Atlantic.
Most of not all of the night will be dry, though it isn't entirely out of the question that a light shower sneaks into the southwestern portion of the area late tonight into Tuesday morning as a weak upper disturbance pushes toward the area on the periphery of the broad subtropical ridge over the southeastern CONUS.
All in all, a fairly typical warm/humid mid-July night with lows dropping into the lower 70s in most locations.
Highs will be in the low to mid 90s with dew points in the mid 70s, this will push afternoon heat index values to around or just above 100. Mainly dry conditions Tuesday night with lows once again in the low to mid 70s. Highs in the low to mid 90s with afternoon heat index values between 100 and 105.
201 AM EDT Tue Jul 15 2025 Weak upper ridging will continue to break down through the mid week, leading to lower daytime temperatures and higher rain chances each day. Upper ridging then returns for the late week and thus weekend, bringing warming temperatures and more typical shower/storm chances. Low pressure and a weak upper trough shift westward today into northern FL. Heights are a little lower today so highs should only reach into the lower to mid 90s.
/NEW/ /Through Wednesday Night/ Weak upper-level troughing is expected across the Southern Great Plains one more day (today) before ridging builds into the region starting Wednesday. While storms may develop anywhere across Northern and Central Texas, the highest chances for rain are north of the I-20 corridor and west of the I-35 corridor. Highs should be in the low 90s, but may be in the upper 80s for locations that see rain, particularly if storms develop during the late morning/early afternoon hours. Tomorrow, highs will again be in the lower 90s, but skies should remain mostly clear with no chance for rain at this time.
The low level jet is starting to kick in. Zonal H5 flow prevails through the next several days, with ridging supported in the southeast CONUS and a deep H5 trough over the Hudson Bay. Cooler air at the surface and very warm 850mb temps are ensuring strong capping for most locations.
- Unsettled and warmer after Wednesday. Strong cold front will move through the region late Tuesday into Wednesday as upper level trof crosses the Northern Plains. This will bring much cooler temps (highs in the upper 50s to upper 60s, which sits at around 20-30 degrees below average for this time of year).
1032 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025 - Warmer and humid through Tuesday.
The upper trough moves through eastern Montana Wednesday morning with the rain expect to diminish during the day on Wednesday. VFR conditions will occur at times especially when there are breaks in the low clouds and rain.
The ridge overhead continues to get nudged westward slightly by an inverted trough sliding out of the Atlantic and into the Gulf. The ridge still remains overhead somewhat on Tuesday and Wednesday as the system slides over the Gulf. An area of low pressure currently off the eastern coast of Florida will trek across the Florida peninsula through the day today and eventually pop out into the Gulf late on Tuesday.
1224 AM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025 Updated at 1222 AM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025 - Shower/thunderstorm chances continue through the end of the week, mainly in/near the higher terrain (30-70% there, 10-30% elsewhere). (This afternoon through Tuesday night) WV imagery this afternoon shows an upper ridge extending from just of the SoCal coast into the Central Plains, and another covering the Gulf Coast states, with a stubborn col running SW-NE through Texas. Aside from the usual orographic activity over the higher terrain due to easterly upslope flow, CAMs develop a region of convection to the southeast in line w/the orientation of the col, and this will result in isolated convection tonight, mainly over the lower Trans Pecos. Tuesday night, the LLJ increases a bit, and mixing will keep overnight lows a couple of degrees warmer than tonight.
The low-level jet on Wednesday will usher in stronger warm air advection, raising our temperatures into the 90s.
This, along with some higher mid-upper level ridging in the area, should continue the trend of lowering day-to-day shra/tstm chances/coverage into midweek. Inverted mid-upper trof off the east coast of Florida will be making eastward progress and into the Gulf late today and Wednesday.
1229 AM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025 Dry conditions are likely to persist across all of deep south Texas and the RGV for the remainder of tonight as well as through next Tuesday as mid-level ridging continues overhead. Partly cloudy to mostly cloudy skies Tuesday become mainly sunny each day, beginning Wednesday, as subsidence aloft enhances from a low pressure system to our northeast, which may move into the central Gulf states later this week.
357 AM EDT Tue Jul 15 2025 - Sunny and warm today with high temperatures around 90 degrees and heat indices in the low 90s.
1123 PM MDT Mon Jul 14 2025 - Warmer temperatures in the 90s to low 100s to start the week (hottest on Tuesday) before slightly cooler temperatures in the 70s/80s mid week. If the low struggles to move out of Colorado, we are looking at in increase in storm threat across the area. However, CAMs are favoring the trough moving through, which may limit storm potential for the forecast area as the low moves directly over. Overnight lows will be a little cooler out west with temperatures in the upper 50s to upper 60s. Moving through the rest of the week, the upper level ridge moves further across the Great Plains while an upper trough begins to move across the the Northwest Contiguous United States (CONUS).
UPDATE The low level jet is starting to kick in. Zonal H5 flow prevails through the next several days, with ridging supported in the southeast CONUS and a deep H5 trough over the Hudson Bay. Cooler air at the surface and very warm 850mb temps are ensuring strong capping for most locations. After initial strong storms which have the highest chance of impacting KGFK, KTVF and KBJI, more showers and some thunder will continue into Tuesday morning.
Broad/weak troughing over the western plains feeds into a 40-50 kt west southwesterly jet "max" over MO/IL/IN/OH this morning.
- Turning cooler Wednesday with rain chances lingering. - Drier to end the week before rain chances and warmer temperatures return for the weekend. Additional showers and storms will linger for Tuesday night into Wednesday, but are not expected to be severe as the front shifts south of the region and cooler air fills in behind.
- Warmer on Tue-Wed with a brief cooldown followed by rising temperatures this coming weekend. This lines up well with where we are seeing the highest PWAT values as well as the highest instability. For Tuesday and Wednesday, we'll see temperatures across central and south-central Kansas in the middle to upper 90s with southeastern Kansas hanging on to the lower 90s.
1200 AM EDT Tue Jul 15 2025 - Sunny and warm Tuesday with temperatures around 90 degrees and heat indices in the low 90s.
High pressure builds over Texas and temperatures warm towards normal with much of the area in the mid 90s.
Dry conditions are likely to persist across all of deep south Texas and the RGV for the remainder of tonight as well as through next Tuesday as mid-level ridging continues overhead. Partly cloudy to mostly cloudy skies Tuesday become mainly sunny each day, beginning Wednesday, as subsidence aloft enhances from a low pressure system to our northeast, which may move into the central Gulf states later this week.
- Warmer on Tue-Wed with a brief cooldown followed by rising temperatures this coming weekend. Low level moisture advection is progged across the area tonight ahead of a southward advancing cold front.
On Wednesday, a narrow 500mb ridge axis remains wedged overhead, between the tropical low skirting across the northern Gulf and troughing across the northern U.
Near the surface, a lee side trough of low pressure remains anchored in eastern Colorado. Although a weak disorganized flow aloft, marginal capping, and lack of trigger mechanism will hinder storm development across much of central/southwest Kansas, isolated thunderstorms still cannot be ruled out along and north of the stalled boundary to our north, and potentially in a field of steep mid-level lapse rates in vicinity of increased low level convergence associated with the trough axis/dryline in extreme eastern Colorado.
Dry and warm conditions will continue through tomorrow evening with weak flow throughout all levels of the atmosphere as an upper-level trough departs to the east and weak riding builds to the west. By Tuesday night, southerly moist flow and some warm-air advection ahead of an approaching weak trough may be enough to spark some isolated showers or thunderstorms across far eastern Kansas.
As heights aloft fall ahead of an incoming trough, weak instability will be able to build in allowing for some Isolated thunderstorms to develop later this afternoon. Outside of thunder, synoptic winds will continue to increase as an upper level trough digs down from British Columbia. Temperatures are expected to climb to around 100 degrees throughout the lower elevations and to the mid-upper 80s in mountain valleys this afternoon. A cold front crossing our area Tuesday morning, ahead of the upper level trough, will offer some relief dropping temperatures down to near normal. Precipitation and thunder chances increase in southern Twin Falls and northeast Valley counties as the upper level trough finally makes its way across our area. Northwest flow aloft behind this trough will keep our area dry come Wednesday.
Winds will ramp up as the axis of this system treks through this evening, before a cooler air mass settles in for tomorrow. Looking at obs this afternoon, confidence is not great that we will ultimately meet criteria, as RHs are a bit more elevated today with the slightly cooler temperatures, but with winds expected to be as gusty as they are, feel like the RFW is appropriate to at the very least highlight elevated conditions.
139 AM EDT Tue Jul 15 2025 Weak upper ridging will begin to break down, leading to lower daytime temperatures and higher rain chances during the mid week period. A new upper ridge should then build in from the east to end the week with slowly warming temperatures. Low pressure and a weak upper trough shift westward today into northern FL. Heights are a little lower today so highs should only reach into the lower to mid 90s. Another trough will break off and approach the region Wednesday allowing thunderstorms to continue both days.
1222 AM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025 - Warmer and muggier today and Tuesday with highs in the mid-80s to near 90s.
weak high pressure will provide us with fair dry and uneventful weather through tonight.
The sfc front is moving south, mostly propelled by cooler, rain cooled air to the north.
615 AM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025 Dry conditions are likely to persist across all of deep south Texas and the RGV for the remainder of tonight as well as through next Tuesday as mid-level ridging continues overhead. Partly cloudy to mostly cloudy skies Tuesday become mainly sunny each day, beginning Wednesday, as subsidence aloft enhances from a low pressure system to our northeast, which may move into the central Gulf states later this week.
Afternoon heat index values are likely to top out in the low 100s in most areas west of the Cumberland Plateau. Highs will be in the low to mid 90s with dew points in the mid 70s, this will push afternoon heat index values to around or just above 100. Mainly dry conditions Tuesday night with lows once again in the low to mid 70s. Highs in the low to mid 90s with afternoon heat index values between 100 and 105.
/Issued 1250 AM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025/ /Through Wednesday Night/ Weak upper-level troughing is expected across the Southern Great Plains one more day (today) before ridging builds into the region starting Wednesday. While storms may develop anywhere across Northern and Central Texas, the highest chances for rain are north of the I-20 corridor and west of the I-35 corridor. Highs should be in the low 90s, but may be in the upper 80s for locations that see rain, particularly if storms develop during the late morning/early afternoon hours. Tomorrow, highs will again be in the lower 90s, but skies should remain mostly clear with no chance for rain at this time.