Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
512 AM EDT Tue Jul 9 2024 Low pressure merges with the remnants of tropical depression Beryl over the Mid Mississippi Valley today then tracks into Ohio Valley. A cold front will push into the Mid Atlantic region on Wednesday before becoming stationary through the end of the week. After midnight, low level convergence increases as the cold front enters the mountains from the west. Temperatures will feel oppressive, especially east of the Blue Ridge. The combination of high dewpoints and anomalously warm temperatures will lead to heat indices over 100F east of the Blue Ridge, and likely reaching advisory levels in the Piedmont near central VA. Wednesday will have the most coverage as troughing absorbs Beryl and passes into the OH River Valley.
639 AM CDT Tue Jul 9 2024 Today through Tonight: The remnants of TC Beryl embedded within a mid-level trough across the Mid Mississippi River Valley will be the main weather influence today as the system continues to track northward.
635 AM CDT Tue Jul 9 2024 (Today through Wednesday afternoon) Yesterday's cold front has pushed all the way into the Big Bend and into Mexico this morning, with east-northeasterly flow in place across the region. While the surface lift supplied from the front seen yesterday is absent today, we still find our area in between ridging across the Southwest and Southeast. Upper ridging across the Southwest nudges eastward some for Wednesday, so temperatures will tick up a degree or two across the board.
All eyes will be on the remnants of Beryl as it moves NNE from the lower Mississippi Valley this morning on its way through the Quad State today. A strong theta-e gradient/warm front will lift north across the eastern half of the are PAH CWA late this morning and into the afternoon. By Wednesday morning, the rainfall will exit the region from southwest to northeast as the low tracks northeast of the region. High pressure building in from the west will bring clearing skies through the day Wednesday. High pressure will remain across the region through the remainder of the week keeping things dry.
Mid level ridge remains across the Southeast today in between a trough to the west and weakening low over the Atlantic that will track westward towards the coast. A trough of low pressure will reside at the surface. Temperatures are forecast to reach the lower to mid 90s over the much of the area today. The mid-level ridge across the western Atlantic will continue to extend west into the local forecast area on Wednesday.
414 AM CDT Tue Jul 9 2024 - Cooler southeast today with a few isolated storms north.
This is ahead of the remnants of Beryl which are forecast to track from the Southern Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley today and then northeast across the area tonight and into the Great Lakes Wednesday.
430 AM CDT Tue Jul 9 2024 Today through Tonight: The remnants of TC Beryl embedded within a mid-level trough across the Mid Mississippi River Valley will be the main weather influence today as the system continues to track northward.
704 AM EDT Tue Jul 9 2024 Low pressure merges with the remnants of tropical depression Beryl over the Mid Mississippi Valley today then tracks into Ohio Valley. A cold front will push into the Mid Atlantic region on Wednesday before becoming stationary through the end of the week. After midnight, low level convergence increases as the cold front enters the mountains from the west. Temperatures will feel oppressive, especially east of the Blue Ridge. The combination of high dewpoints and anomalously warm temperatures will lead to heat indices over 100F east of the Blue Ridge, and likely reaching advisory levels in the Piedmont near central VA. Wednesday will have the most coverage as troughing absorbs Beryl and passes into the OH River Valley.
An upper level trough axis stretched from the Great Lakes into central TX, with a ridge and resulting heat continuing to dominate the western CONUS. That said, soundings do reveal quite a bit of dry air in the low levels, so it seems unlikely that we'll see much that persists for very long.
654 AM EDT Tue Jul 9 2024 Southwest flow under high pressure will bring hot and humid conditions to the region today.
- Warmer and more humid conditions this weekend. Upper trough across the Midwest, slowed by the ridges to the east and west, will capture the remnants of Beryl today (Tuesday). This system has a typical cool season back side of the low heavy precipitation and very little convective instability presentation to it. Pattern Forecast: By Wednesday evening, troughing expected to be draped over the center of the country with remnants of Beryl/low pressure centered across far western Lake Erie.
Also used CONShort to bump up cloud cover over the low NBM numbers.
As the low pressure system passes to the north of the state this evening, shear increases and 0-1 km shear will be 20-30 kts. Temperatures will be cooler across the area through the afternoon with so much scattered convection. Highs today will be in the low 70s.
- Limited precipitation chances - Elevated fire weather conditions The latest analysis shows northwesterly flow aloft over the northern plains, along the east side of the upper ridge located over the western CONUS. The upper/thermal ridge will continue to build eastward toward the forecast area during the rest of the week, bringing increasingly hot temperatures and lowering relative humidity.
Low temperatures overnight dip into the lower and middle 70s inland with mainly upper 70s near the coast. /14 (Wednesday night through Tuesday) Upper trough just to the west of our area will continue through the period, with southwesterly flow persisting in the mid to upper levels of the atmosphere. Deep layer moisture will remain across the portions of our area along and south of this trough, with PWAT values still between 2. 8) north of the trough.
The coldest spots may even hit the upper 50s! Tomorrow will be a repeat of today with highs topping out in the low to mid 90s for most with the Rio Grande Valley/Big Bend reaching just over the century mark. Showers and storms will once again be possible over the higher elevations to the west.
Dry conditions return tomorrow with slightly cooler temperatures.
GOES-16 visible satellite show the remnants of TC Beryl, embedded within a mid-level trough across the Mid Mississippi Valley, tracking northward. Meanwhile, areas east of I-55 will see daytime highs peak in the low 90s. /CR/ Today through Tonight: The remnants of TC Beryl embedded within a mid-level trough across the Mid Mississippi River Valley will be the main weather influence today as the system continues to track northward.
1248 PM CDT Tue Jul 9 2024 GOES-16 visible satellite show the remnants of TC Beryl, embedded within a mid-level trough across the Mid Mississippi Valley, tracking northward. Meanwhile, areas east of I-55 will see daytime highs peak in the low 90s. /CR/ Today through Tonight: The remnants of TC Beryl embedded within a mid-level trough across the Mid Mississippi River Valley will be the main weather influence today as the system continues to track northward.
359 PM EDT Tue Jul 9 2024 Hot and very humid weather will continue through tomorrow as tropical air continues to stream in from the south around Bermuda High Pressure. Weak low pressure developing across the Carolinas will bring increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms late in the week. Latest surface analysis shows Bermuda high pressure carrying a western extent back towards the Carolinas.
Weak ridging remains at the surface in response, but is suppressed by the more amplified pattern. As the pattern flattens this week and the subtropical ridge builds back east, there will be an eventual return to more of an easterly flow.
Overnight lows in the low to mid 70's will follow the gradual warming trend.
There is still plenty of cloud cover in place, but a breezy southerly wind around 10 MPH and ample heating that will occur during breaks in the clouds will warm temperatures into the low to mid 90s across much of the region by the afternoon.
As for temperatures, look for them to be on the rise today and tomorrow with most locations returning to the low to mid 90s both afternoons.
1050 AM MDT Tue Jul 9 2024 - Hot! - Hotter! - Even Hotter! The much advertised heat ridge is beginning to shift east, and will be dominating the weather across the state through the week.
Models suggest a busier day on Wednesday with the ECMWF bringing in a slug of moisture in from the Gulf and a trough aloft between to high height areas (col) adding to the instability.
(This evening through Tuesday Night, July 16 ) High pressure is in control for the nearterm resulting in little to no convection tonight and for much of tomorrow.
Max temps forecast to be not as high as yesterday, coming in near to slightly above normal in the low 90s across much of the region.
A strong ridge of high pressure will continue to strengthen over the Northern Rockies, peaking in strength tomorrow (Wednesday).
This is due to strong high pressure over the area.
Remnant upper low associated with Beryl over cntrl MO will lift out quickly through the Great Lakes by this time tomorrow. Otherwise general weak troughing persists across the lakes and se Canada which is supportive for at least diurnally driven isolated daily convection within broad disturbance laden nw flow.
Mainly dry conditions are expected tomorrow with high temperatures inching up a few more degrees back into the low to mid 90s during the afternoon.
A surface warm front has steadily been lifting northward ahead of Beryl and is draped across portions of central Kentucky. Warmer mid-level temps have helped suppress convection from reaching their 'highest' potential, though increasing low-level moisture is helping to erode that cap. Storms that form near the warm front will also benefit from enhanced low level shear and helicity from backed surface winds, increasing the tornado potential.
(Tomorrow through Tuesday) The remainder of the week looks predominately dry as troughing gradually shifts east of the region and places our area under NW flow aloft.
In terms of temperatures, we're expecting highs to be in the low 90s for much of the region.
Elsewhere, areas along and south of I-20 will see overnight lows in the low 70s. Afternoon highs will peak around the low 90s around this timeframe which is near normal.
(This evening through Wednesday) A trough, which has more or less been parked directly overhead of the CWA for the last week, is creating dominant northwesterly flow. This, in combination with the northwesterly flow over Northern New Mexico has helped to fuel thunderstorm formation across the higher terrain of ERN NM.
1255 PM CDT Tue Jul 9 2024 (Today and tonight) Our weather will stay quiet and rain free in the short term as the Southern Plains will lay well west of the upper trough axis from the system that has kept us wet and stormy over the past several days.
Overnight lows will start a trend of remaining warmer each night, especially within the inversion layer. The combination of the warmer temperatures and lack of decent cooling overnight is leading to the EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING and HEAT ADVISORY beginning tomorrow and lasting into the weekend.
Issued 233 PM CDT Tue Jul 9 2024 Tonight through Wednesday night: A few very isolated showers and storms have formed this afternoon, and a few more still are still expected out ahead of post- tropical Cyclone Beryl mainly inland from Lake Michigan into this evening.
1211 PM CDT Tue Jul 9 2024 (Today through Wednesday afternoon) Yesterday's cold front has pushed all the way into the Big Bend and into Mexico this morning, with east-northeasterly flow in place across the region. While the surface lift supplied from the front seen yesterday is absent today, we still find our area in between ridging across the Southwest and Southeast. Upper ridging across the Southwest nudges eastward some for Wednesday, so temperatures will tick up a degree or two across the board.
However, this will likely stall by this afternoon as the highest chances of showers and thunderstorms remain over Lower Acadiana and the coastal waters.
Despite having highs mainly in the lower 90s and heat indexes peaking in a 97-106ish range (all under Heat Advisory criteria), extensive power outages caused by Hurricane Beryl have left millions without proper cooling. Here are some tips to stay cool without power: wear loose/ lightweight clothing, try to stay on the lowest level of your home, keep your curtains and blinds closed during the daytime to limit solar radiation entering your home, drink plenty of water/avoid alcohol and heavy meals, and take a cool shower/bath to lower skin temperature.
Looking at our temps for tomorrow, highs will settle into the low to upper 90s.
Dominating high pressure will keep around hot temperatures with heat-related impacts for the area this week. While this smoke will attempt to shed a degree or two off of the high temperatures, temperatures are still forecast to reach around 100-110 degrees at low elevations today and Wednesday.
In its wake, high pressure is moving southward across the central Plains. Overnight temperatures should again drop into the low 60s as high pressure moves overhead and brings clear/calm conditions.
This cloud cover has helped keep temperatures from reaching their full potential for most of the day, but some areas are seeing the sun peaking through now and temperatures are quickly shooting up into the lower 90s. Ridging will be the dominant feature through the week and will generally maintain gentle to moderate breezes.
256 PM CDT Tue Jul 9 2024 - Rainfall associated with the remnants of Beryl will move off to the east - Fog to develop tonight as skies clear and winds become light - Return to warmer temperatures with highs tomorrow in the middle 80s warming well into the 90s this weekend Remaining rainfall over the eastern Ozarks will come to an end during the late afternoon as the remnants of Beryl exit into the Ohio Valley. A few showers and thunderstorms may possibly reform within an inverted trough containing higher dew points. Heights will climb through the latter half of the work week as the western upper ridge of high pressure flattens eastward. a band of IFR stratus associated with an eastward moving inverted trough will shift east.
In its wake, current temperatures across the Midsouth are in the low to middle 70s with a nice breeze.
614 PM CDT Tue Jul 9 2024 (This evening through Wednesday) A trough, which has more or less been parked directly overhead of the CWA for the last week, is creating dominant northwesterly flow. This, in combination with the northwesterly flow over Northern New Mexico has helped to fuel thunderstorm formation across the higher terrain of ERN NM.
600 PM CDT Tue Jul 9 2024 - Rainfall associated with the remnants of Beryl will move off to the east - Fog to develop tonight as skies clear and winds become light - Return to warmer temperatures with highs tomorrow in the middle 80s warming well into the 90s this weekend Remaining rainfall over the eastern Ozarks will come to an end during the late afternoon as the remnants of Beryl exit into the Ohio Valley. A few showers and thunderstorms may possibly reform within an inverted trough containing higher dew points. Heights will climb through the latter half of the work week as the western upper ridge of high pressure flattens eastward.
753 PM EDT Tue Jul 9 2024 Hot and very humid weather will continue through tomorrow as tropical air continues to stream in from the south around Bermuda High Pressure. Weak low pressure developing across the Carolinas will bring increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms late in the week. Latest surface analysis shows Bermuda high pressure carrying a western extent back towards the Carolinas.
This line is preceding a cold front which has now crossed into NW AL. Both the line of showers/cold front will continue to move east thru the remainder of the evening hrs, with the rainfall exiting the area around midnight followed by the weak frontal boundary during the early morning period. Slightly cooler/drier air will then filter into the area in the wake of the frontal passage near daybreak, with lows mainly in the mid 60s/near 70F.
This has shutdown anything in the low levels with some occaisional passing mid and higher level clouds at times. Given the dry air air in place and no source of moisture in the low levels and boundary layer, will continue to hold near nil PoPs for the overnight. Gentle to occasionally moderate east to southeast breezes will prevail across the Florida Keys coastal waters through the rest of the work week, as high pressure remains in place from the Atlantic across the Florida peninsula and into the Gulf of Mexico.
Overnight lows and afternoon highs tomorrow will be considerably cooler than those of the past couple of days owing a frontal passage that will take place later tonight and early Wednesday.
The forecast remains on track with temperatures slowly falling into the upper 60s north to the middle 70s south leading to a noticeably cooler and less humid overnight than we have seen in a while as drier air behind the departing cyclone is dragged south and east. Skies will be partly cloudy as we reach dawn with highs tomorrow in the lower 90s F. Elsewhere, areas along and south of I-20 will see overnight lows in the low 70s. Afternoon highs will peak around the low 90s around this timeframe which is near normal.
High pressure centered over the Mojave Desert continues to gradually shift eastward across Arizona and Utah. While the high will continue to advected warm, dry air into northern Arizona, moisture does begin to creep into areas just along and south of the Mogollon Rim. This moisture should allow for showers and thunderstorms to develop later this afternoon, however the strength of the high will limit the overall coverage of the activity. Elsewhere, mainly hot and dry conditions will continue with some fair weather cumulus over the higher terrain. Can't necessarily rule out some virga across some of the higher terrain with any more vigorous cumulus development, but any appreciable rainfall is unlikely.
Even so, CAPE remains marginal overall and is perhaps the greatest limiting factor as the warm front tries to creep northward these next few hours. Thunderstorms continue to come-and-go in the vicinity of this warm front over east-central IN, so longevity of any storms making it into our forecast area is questionable. Remnant upper low associated with Beryl over cntrl MO will lift out quickly through the Great Lakes by this time tomorrow. Otherwise general weak troughing persists across the lakes and se Canada which is supportive for at least diurnally driven isolated daily convection within broad disturbance laden nw flow.
Showers and storms continue to move slowly east/southeast across the higher terrain into the plains of New Mexico. As for temperatures, look for them to be on the rise today and tomorrow with most locations returning to the low to mid 90s both afternoons.
With high pressure aloft and a weak boundary stalling near the coastline, expect a return to the typical diurnal pattern of daytime showers and thunderstorms.
Water vapour loop had western CONUS upper ridge building into the northern Plains. Effect of this ridge main forecast concern. Today/tonight, upper/thermal ridge continue to build into the CWA with temperatures a tad higher than yesterday/near guidance. Lee trough/dryline slips into the Black Hills late in the day and may be the focus for isolated thunderstorms. HREF brings 1KJ/kg mean SBCAPE ahead of trough with 0-6km bulk shear 25-35kts.
Highs today should top out around 80, with lows tonight in the low 60s.
Daytime highs continue to sit in the lower/mid 90s in the immediate term, with lows settling in the upper 70s to near 80.
Low temperatures overnight dip into the lower and middle 70s inland with mainly upper 70s near the coast.
Temperatures will be a couple degrees warmer on Thursday compared to today, but dew points across most of the area will still be in the 60s.
Afternoon temperatures in the upper 80s to near 90 expected to rise a couple of degrees into the lower 90s. Afternoon highs in the lower to mid 90s. Lows in the lower to mid 70s. Afternoon highs in the lower to mid 90s.
Temperatures continue to warm as high pressure amplifies over the western U. Our low elevations will observe highs in the upper 90s to a few degrees over 100 and widespread overnight lows reaching into the 60s or warmer.
In terms of temperatures, we're expecting highs to be in the low 90s for much of the region. Overnight lows are forecast to be a touch cooler as well (widespread low/mid 70s).
1251 AM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024 Showers and storms continue to move slowly east/southeast across the higher terrain into the plains of New Mexico. As for temperatures, look for them to be on the rise today and tomorrow with most locations returning to the low to mid 90s both afternoons.
Even so, CAPE remains marginal overall and is perhaps the greatest limiting factor as the warm front tries to creep northward these next few hours. Thunderstorms continue to come-and-go in the vicinity of this warm front over east-central IN, so longevity of any storms making it into our forecast area is questionable. Remnant upper low associated with Beryl over cntrl MO will lift out quickly through the Great Lakes by this time tomorrow. Otherwise general weak troughing persists across the lakes and se Canada which is supportive for at least diurnally driven isolated daily convection within broad disturbance laden nw flow. Slow return to VFR by late afternoon as low pressure lifts NE.
An elongated mid to upper level trough emanating from the Midwest through Texas and southwest across Mexico will continue to draw moisture northward. The approach and passage of tropical wave or inverted trough moving through Southern Gulf of Mexico will enhance the moisture Thursday. The high humidity will also be maintained with dew points well in the 70s.
(Today and tonight) An upper ridge will start building in over the Southern Plains warming temperatures back to seasonably average which would be mid to lower 90s from west to east across our CWA.
Locations where Excessive Heat Warnings are currently in effect in north- central Idaho, will see temperatures ranging from 100-110F A subtle disturbance will pass through the region on Thursday causing the ridge to flatten.
An U/L ridge over the central Atlantic will bridge across the Florida peninsula and extend across the southern tier of the U. This will hold over the region through the remainder of the period, however there will be a slight weakness in the ridge over the southeast U.
(Today and tonight) Key Messages: 1) Cooler temperatures will be in place today 2) Breezy conditions to start off today, especially in the higher elevations. Discussion: Currently the cold front is working its way through the eastern Tennessee Valley and should be east of the southern Appalachian mountains later this morning. Bigger impacts from this front will be the cooler and drier conditions for the next couple of days as drier air moves into the region.
Efficient afternoon mixing will drop dewpoints into the upper 50s across the Big Country and the low to mid-60s elsewhere, keeping heat index values under the century mark for most locations.
As the region remains under northwest flow aloft, situated between the upper trough to our east and the upper ridge to our west, additional showers and storms will develop across portions of New Mexico and move into mainly the western Panhandles once again this afternoon and evening. Heights begin to rise from the west on Thursday as the upper ridge expands to the east.
with AR under influence of the larger scale trough axis.
322 AM EDT Wed Jul 10 2024 A cold front associated with the remnants of Beryl will usher in drier air today through Thursday.
High pressure aloft wl rmn centered ovr the desert southwest, resulting in a persistent trof axis acrs the MS Valley region.
- High pressure aloft builds in through the weekend, resulting in temperatures well into the 90s.
Forecast: It brings me great joy to say that a cold front is approaching from the west this morning.