Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
With dewpoints ranging in the low to upper 70s, heat index values have already climbed well into the triple digits for areas around Nashville. The mid- to upper-level ridge centered near the East Coast is forecast to retrograde west by mid week, continuing our period of excessive heat conditions. However, guidance is favoring an upper-level low working its way into the ridge, bringing increasing chances for rain and clouds.
214 PM CDT Sun Jun 22 2025 - Hot and humid weather will prevail through much of this week, with high temperatures in the low to mid 90s, low temperatures in the low to mid 70s, and afternoon heat indices of 100 to 105 degrees.
/issued 320 AM MST Sun Jun 22 2025/ A deep trough sits over the western CONUS this morning, centered over Idaho into the Great Basin. With the periphery of trough base over southern California, southeastern Arizona sits under dry southwesterly flow.
343 PM EDT Sun Jun 22 2025 - Heat continues through tomorrow with warm temps all week - Storm chances through mid week - Heat continues through tomorrow with warm temps all week Large high pressure will continue to move through the mid west and into the mid Atlantic region through the first half of this week. Max temps tomorrow will be again into the 90s with Heat indices into the low 100's. The "ring of fire" quasi stationary high pressure will dominate the pattern through the week. - Storm chances this week One of the "ring of fire" hallmarks is the potential for storms around the quasistationary "ring" of high pressure.
Key Messages: 1) Confidence is high for temperatures rising above normal due to a large upper level ridge building overhead. Strong ridging overhead will promote dry and hot summertime weather with sunny skies. Temperatures continue to climb on Monday as we remain stoutly situated underneath the ridge. An isolated stray shower can't be ruled out of occurring over the far southern Blue Ridge in the afternoons, but the vast majority of the CWA will likely have clear skies.
1123 AM EDT Sun Jun 22 2025 Upper ridging establishes itself over the eastern CONUS this weekend with an early week warming trend. Hot and humid conditions, and dangerous heat index values, are expected during the mid-week period under the continued influence of the upper ridge. Rain chances increase later in the week as ridging should begin to break down. Upper ridge axis has migrated to the OH/TN Valley and Mid- Atlantic region as the first real heat wave of the season begins today.
An upper level ridge axis extending from central Texas, through the mid south, to the mid atlantic region will be in place for much of this forecast period.
(Through Monday) A large ridge over the eastern US keeping temperatures notably above normal. Though the overall coverage of storms will be a bit limited this afternoon, some stronger gusts are possible with D-CAPE values still on the higher side.
Cold front to continue its advance across the state this afternoon and evening. This will bring continued breezy westerly winds and cooler temperatures in the 60s to lower 70s.
1220 PM CDT Sun Jun 22 2025 An upper ridge will continue across the area through the near term with a summer pattern of isolated to scattered showers and storms. Temperatures remain warm in the lower to middle 90s for highs with lows in the lower to middle 70s. /13 An upper ridge will continue through the work week across the eastern half of the U. Higher rain chances return by the end of the week as the ridge weakens and moisture levels increase. Temperatures will average up to 5 degrees above normal through the extended, with highs in the middle 90s inland and the lower 90s along the beaches and barrier islands. Low temperatures across interior areas will be in the lower to middle 70s and the upper 70s along the beaches and barrier islands.
The large scale pattern is defined by a deep trough across the western United States and high pressure aloft over the mid Atlantic states. Troughing will deepen to our west through early this week as the high center shifts into the southeastern states.
(This evening through Monday night) Hot and humid conditions continue across the area with highs in the low to mid 90s and heat indices upwards of 107F, mainly along the I-10 corridor and Pearl River basin. Mid-level RH values will gradually increase in association with a passing weak upper trough in the central Gulf following the periphery of the sprawling 597dam ridge over the eastern CONUS tonight.
Out west, a trof is rounding an upper low spinning over Boise, ID with a jet streak pointed from the Great Basin into western NoDak.
(This evening through Monday) A quiet weather pattern prevails over the region this afternoon as an upper level trough remains placed over the Intermountain West. However, the main driver of our weather will be the high pressure over the eastern Pacific with a gradual warming trend to more near seasonable norms on Monday.
237 PM EDT Sun Jun 22 2025 Upper ridging establishes itself over the eastern CONUS bringing an early week warming trend. Hot and humid conditions, and dangerous heat index values, are expected during the mid- week period under the continued influence of the upper ridge. Rain chances increase later in the week as ridging should begin to break down. Upper ridge axis has become entrenched over the OH/TN Valley and Mid-Atlantic region. Tonight, mostly clear skies expected but the very warm air mass will be slow to cool and expect overnight lows in the lower to mid 70s.
Persistent heat/humidity is expected through the forecast period as 591-594mb upper-lvl ridge situates over the southeast CONUS and gradually shifts eastward towards the end of the period. Afternoon highs are expected to be in the lower 90s and gradually warming to the mid-90s by the weekend. Overnight lows are expected to drop to the lower 70 to offer some relief from the heat.
It will be another warm night with lows in the lower to mid 70s. Sprawling upper high will persist through the period. Temperatures will remain near or slightly above persistence with highs in the lower to mid 90s and lows in the mid 70s.
2)Warmer temperatures will return through the middle part of the week but chances for showers and thunderstorms will continue at times. Confidence is also high on the return to warmer conditions into the middle of the week.
The upper (and thermal) ridge begin to slide slowly east tonight, with an upstream cold front poised to approach the area on Monday (and bring eventual relief from the heat/humidity). One more hot/humid day on Monday with 850mb temperatures just a touch lower than Sunday in response to gradually lowering heights/increased clouds in advance of the cold front. Cold front pushes into the area Monday night accompanied by showers and thunderstorms.
755 PM EDT Sun Jun 22 2025 - Heat continues through tomorrow with warm temps all week - Storm chances through mid week - Heat continues through tomorrow with warm temps all week Large high pressure will continue to move through the mid west and into the mid Atlantic region through the first half of this week. Max temps tomorrow will be again into the 90s with Heat indices into the low 100's. The "ring of fire" quasi stationary high pressure will dominate the pattern through the week. - Storm chances this week One of the "ring of fire" hallmarks is the potential for storms around the quasistationary "ring" of high pressure.
A cold core upper level low continues to move east this evening.
826 PM EDT Sun Jun 22 2025 Upper ridging establishes itself over the eastern CONUS bringing an early week warming trend. Hot and humid conditions, and dangerous heat index values, are expected during the mid- week period under the continued influence of the upper ridge. Rain chances increase later in the week as ridging should begin to break down. Key Message(s): - None Mostly clear skies tonight under upper level ridging. Temperatures will remain warm through the night with lows only reaching into the low to mid 70s.
649 PM CDT Sun Jun 22 2025 (This evening through Monday night) Hot and humid conditions continue across the area with highs in the low to mid 90s and heat indices upwards of 107F, mainly along the I-10 corridor and Pearl River basin. Mid-level RH values will gradually increase in association with a passing weak upper trough in the central Gulf following the periphery of the sprawling 597dam ridge over the eastern CONUS tonight.
598DM 500mb ridge is centered over the Appalachians, with a weak easterly wave across the northern Gulf. With low level moisture across the region and dewpoints hovering in the low 70s overnight, lows will be some 3-8F above normal (72-75F). /DC/ Persistent heat/humidity is expected through the forecast period as 591-594mb upper-lvl ridge situates over the southeast CONUS and gradually shifts eastward towards the end of the period. Afternoon highs are expected to be in the lower 90s and gradually warming to the mid-90s by the weekend. Overnight lows are expected to drop to the lower 70 to offer some relief from the heat.
838 PM EDT Sun Jun 22 2025 High pressure will remain across the Southeast U. It will remain warm tonight with lows dropping into the lower 70s inland to around 80 at the beaches and Downtown Charleston. The mid-levels will consist of a very strong ridge over the eastern half of the U.
Anomalously cool temperatures blanket the region in the wake of a strong cold front.
712 PM EDT Sun Jun 22 2025 (Through Monday) A large ridge over the eastern US keeping temperatures notably above normal. Though the overall coverage of storms will be a bit limited this afternoon, some stronger gusts are possible with D-CAPE values still on the higher side.
These showers and thunderstorms sent out outflow boundaries which caused collisions with other boundaries already in the area resulting in a very active evening across the area, especially the offshore Gulf waters due north of the Lower Keys. Deep mean layer ridging remain anchored across the Eastern U. This ridge is resulting in easterly breezes of 10 to 15 knots at marine platforms surrounding the Keys and Island Chain communities observing 10 to 15 mph. Also, an outflow boundary can be seen moving southward through the southern offshore Gulf waters which may also be a catalyst for more shower and thunderstorm activity potentially for the Lower Keys. From synopsis, high pressure will gradually build over the Eastern Seaboard over the next few days.
It will be warm again tonight with lows in the lower to mid 70s. Sprawling upper high will persist through the period. Temperatures will remain near or slightly above persistence with highs in the lower to mid 90s and lows in the mid 70s.
654 PM CDT Sun Jun 22 2025 Persistent heat/humidity is expected through the forecast period as 591-594mb upper-lvl ridge situates over the southeast CONUS and gradually shifts eastward towards the end of the period. Afternoon highs are expected to be in the lower 90s and gradually warming to the mid-90s by the weekend. Overnight lows are expected to drop to the lower 70 to offer some relief from the heat.
923 PM EDT Sun Jun 22 2025 An upper level ridge continues hot and humid continues through mid-week.
The strength of an H5 ridge of high pressure that runs 592-596 DM thru much of the week puts us in the E-SAT 30 yr Return Interval for such a strong, season opening pattern. Thus the weekend highs in the low-mid 90s with dew points in the low-mid 70s just really look like there is not a lot of diurnal variation thru the course of the week. High pressure will continue to bring light south to southwesterly flow and mostly clear skies.
606 PM CDT Sun Jun 22 2025 - Hot and humid weather will prevail through much of this week, with high temperatures in the low to mid 90s, low temperatures in the low to mid 70s, and afternoon heat indices of 100 to 105 degrees.
Upper level ridging is building behind the low pressure system moving east, keeping warmer and drier conditions in the forecast through the middle of the week. Expect light rain showers and cooler temperatures through the end of the week.
712 PM EDT Sun Jun 22 2025 An upper level ridge continues hot and humid continues through mid-week.
Satellite image shows the upper trough east of the forecast area with dry north to northeast flow aloft. However, there will be warming aloft and guidance suggest areas between Chemult and Crescent are at highest risk of getting near freezing towards daybreak Monday. The upcoming work week is expected to be dry with warmer temperatures for the interior. A weak upper trough will approach the waters late Monday afternoon, but this will not have any impact on the weather.
High pressure is centered just to the east of Middle Tennessee, so that will keep us locked into a warm, humid air mass. With dewpoints ranging in the low to upper 70s, heat index values have already climbed well into the triple digits for areas around Nashville. The mid- to upper-level ridge centered near the East Coast is forecast to retrograde west by mid week, continuing our period of excessive heat conditions. However, guidance is favoring an upper-level low working its way into the ridge, bringing increasing chances for rain and clouds.
(This evening through Monday night) Surface reflections of the late season Rockies mid-upper low and strong ERN US mid- upper high continue to produce a tight pgrad and breezy conditions across the area. Winds have been flirting with advisory along the Highway 60 wind tunnel from AMA NE and in the NRN Panhandles but haven't quite got there consistently. The lumpy CU field in the west is giving away where the highest chances for rain will occur. Convective parameters are similar to today, but with less DCAPE given cooler SFC temperatures and earlier start time.
Modestly cooler than average days may occur where it rains/storms in the afternoon, while overnight lows do look to be a little above average area-wide.
The highest convective chances can be expected across the eastern half of the CWA around mid-week, with PoPs rising to near 30-50% during the daytime hours.
(Tonight through Tuesday Night) Strong high pressure remains over the eastern US and will still be the main focus of this week as it's responsible for dangerous heat. With high pressure controlling our pattern, this continues to suppress widespread thunderstorm development.
1247 AM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025 - Hot and humid weather will prevail through much of this week, with high temperatures in the low to mid 90s, low temperatures in the low to mid 70s, and afternoon heat indices of 100 to 105 degrees.
High pressure will bring warmer and drier weather Monday and Tuesday.
251 AM EDT Mon Jun 23 2025 Upper ridging establishes itself over the eastern CONUS bringing an early week warming trend. Hot and humid conditions, and dangerous heat index values, are expected during the mid- week period under the continued influence of the upper ridge. Rain chances increase later in the week as ridging should begin to break down. Key Message(s): - None Mostly clear skies tonight under upper level ridging. Temperatures will remain warm through the night with lows only reaching into the low to mid 70s.
307 AM EDT Mon Jun 23 2025 A strong mid and upper ridge will build in over the eastern United States through midweek with a significant warming trend. Building surface and mid-level ridging will lead to a hot and dry day today. Strong ridging will maintain hot weather on Tuesday. Latest forecast does include a 15% PoP for Tuesday with models hinting at some activity in the western and central Carolinas along a thermal trough. The ridge begins to weaken Tuesday afternoon with a slight tilt, resulting from a developing low to our southeast.
As troughing moves north and east, northwest/westerly flow will build in. Clearing conditions this morning will also allow for temperatures near freezing along the western foothills, with some near record low temps possible across the region (see table below).
Multiple days of heat index values in the low 100s and overnight lows in the low/mid 70s combined with high humidity can result in heat-related health impacts. Afternoon highs will be in the low/mid 90s. Dewpoints will be in the mid/upper 70s creating heat index values once again in the low/mid triple digits with a few locations getting above 105. Highs will continue to be in the low/mid 90s, dewpoints in the low/mid 70s with afternoon heat index values in the triple digits.
Satellite imagery this afternoon reveals a center of low pressure circulation over the Montana/Idaho border. This low will continue to bring mild conditions to the forecast area, along with some residual wrap- around moisture, primarily to the eastern mountains and the foothills of the WA Cascades. Models have temperatures creeping back up into the 90s across the lowlands by Tuesday as mid- level flow develops a bit of a SW component to it, however dry conditions are expected to prevail, as a deepening trough over the Great Basin will allow a dry air mass to prevail overhead.
Low temps will range from the lower 70s over inland SW FL to around 80 across the east coast metro.
Heat wave to persist through at least Tuesday as warm/moist southwest flow continues under an expansive eastern US 594+ dam 500 mb ridge. The ridge eventually breaks down with a transition to high latitude zonal flow mid week through the upcoming weekend.
354 AM EDT Mon Jun 23 2025 An upper ridge will remain in place over the region through mid-week.
Abundant surface moisture is also in place with Td values in the lower to mid 60s. Latest water vapor satellite data also shows the main H500 deepening trough axis moving across central California, along with a broad H500 high pressure system centered over the eastern Ohio River Valley region. Compared to yesterday, along with the aforementioned synoptic feature, a weak cold front will slowly drift south into portions of southern Kansas later this afternoon. The western Panhandles overall will have the highest chances (up to 30% chance) of flooding due to heavy rainfall throughout the short term forecast period. High temperatures today and tomorrow will range from the lower 80s in the NW Panhandles to lower and mid 90s for the eastern combined Panhandles.
But if the the high temp is accurate for the day, then there can't be so many storms around which would allow for max insolation. We are showing a normal distribution today with 30-40% which has come way down from yesterdays values and this looks more in line with the high convective temps.
/Issued 1227 AM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025/ /Through Tuesday/ A stout upper ridge will remain anchored over the eastern CONUS through the early portion of the workweek, placing North Texas within southerly flow through the column. /NEW/ /Tuesday Night Onward/ The dominant mid level ridge over the Ohio Valley will flatten and expand west mid to late week, as the trough over the Desert Southwest lifts northeast through the Plains.
Early morning surface analysis had a 1020mb high to our northeast ridging back across our CWA. This stout ridging surface and aloft will change very little through tonight. This will lead to warm temperatures in the low to mid 90s today.
1146 PM CDT Sun Jun 22 2025 (This evening through Monday night) Hot and humid conditions continue across the area with highs in the low to mid 90s and heat indices upwards of 107F, mainly along the I-10 corridor and Pearl River basin. Mid-level RH values will gradually increase in association with a passing weak upper trough in the central Gulf following the periphery of the sprawling 597dam ridge over the eastern CONUS tonight.
257 AM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025 - A return to cooler than average temperatures today in the wake of a cold front. Both cooler temperatures and daily rainfall are expected through midweek. In the wake of the cold front, we are seeing pretty widespread relief from the heat overnight, with lows dropping into the upper 50s and lower 60s. A low pressure center remains across northern Kansas throughout the day, and the associated fronts should be the focus for additional showers and thunderstorms this evening.
Weak upper level ridging is building behind the low pressure system moving east, keeping warmer and drier conditions in the forecast through the middle of the week, though skies remain mostly cloudy. Expect light rain showers and cooler temperatures through the end of the week.
354 AM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025 - Cooler temperatures and dry conditions are expected to persist through the early portion of the week.
158 AM EDT Mon Jun 23 2025 A large area of High pressure will expand across the Eastern U. High pressure, surface and aloft, will promote strong subsidence the next several days. A large 598-dam upper level ridge will dominate the weather pattern over the Appalachian Mountains on Tuesday, which should coincide with the peak of the heat wave. High temperatures will reach the upper 80s to the mid 90s along and west of the Blue Ridge, while the Piedmont will climb well into the 90s and may even test the century mark.
Strong high pressure aloft centered over the OH Valley and Mid- Atlantic coupled with surface ridging extending from the W Atlantic across the Mid-Atlantic and SE U.
A long wave troughing pattern will remain over the Western United States early this week.
A broad upper-level ridge continues strengthening over the eastern half of the CONUS, bringing the first stretch of hot weather for the year. High temperatures today and tomorrow are expected to be in the low 90s, which is only 2-4 degrees outside of the normal range for the end of June. Forecast minimum temps in the low 70s are also around 2-4 degrees warmer than the normal range for this time of year. However, our experimental Heat Risk Index is a level 2 to 3 out of 4 for today and tomorrow, with the highest heat risk of the week occurring today. Not much changes synoptically, with us staying just inside the "ring of fire" (high pressure dome) that sets up over the greater Tennessee Valley. Temperatures stay in the low 90s, with warmest temperatures generally furthest east.
Isolated showers/storms over the higher terrain this afternoon. Discussion: The midlevel ridge that has been centered over northern VA will drift toward the SW and be centered over the southern Appalachians by tonight. The rising heights will continue the warming trend for our area today, with highs reaching into the lower to mid 90s across most of the area. Rain chances will be pretty low today, even across the higher terrain as the ridge builds over the area.
1227 AM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025 598DM 500mb ridge is centered over the Appalachians, with a weak easterly wave across the northern Gulf. With low level moisture across the region and dewpoints hovering in the low 70s overnight, lows will be some 3-8F above normal (72-75F). /DC/ Persistent heat/humidity is expected through the forecast period as 591-594mb upper-lvl ridge situates over the southeast CONUS and gradually shifts eastward towards the end of the period. Afternoon highs are expected to be in the lower 90s and gradually warming to the mid-90s by the weekend. Overnight lows are expected to drop to the lower 70 to offer some relief from the heat.
(Today and tonight) The upper ridge will be spinning over the Mid-Atlantic today with a cutoff low over California and continued south-southwesterly flow over the Southern Plains. Lee troughing will develop with adiabatic warming and highs in the 90s this afternoon.
135 AM EDT Mon Jun 23 2025 An upper level ridge continues hot and humid continues through mid-week.
The upper (and thermal) ridge begin to slide slowly east tonight, with an upstream cold front poised to approach the area on Monday (and bring eventual relief from the heat/humidity).
Over the coming days a trough currently residing over the western states will gradually weaken. In addition, the trough will combine with high pressure slowly emerging from the east to help draw moisture, currently located to the south and southeast of Arizona, across eastern portions of the state.