Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
659 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025 Through Friday: The increased interaction of the frontal boundary approaching from the north with the high levels of heat/moisture is fueling greater coverage of deep convection today along/north of the I-20 corridor. The thermal ridge south of the boundary will support reaching heat advisory criteria, and wouldn't be surprised if we see a few locations reach extreme heat criteria, but considerable diurnal convective coverage will limit the duration and will hold off on another extreme heat warning.
456 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025 - Much cooler and far less humid conditions are forecast Friday through the weekend.
A backdoor cold front is anticipated to move across AR this evening through Friday morning. A few storms could become strong to severe in this high CAPE low shear environment.
737 PM EDT Thu Jul 31 2025 High pressure builds into the area Tonight through the weekend bringing dry, mostly sunny and seasonable weather conditions. It looks like our threat of heavy rain has subsided as forecast soundings show some mid level capping moving in with some 850 mb to 700 mb ridging building in suppressing any elevated convection. NEPA may still see some higher rates as the mid level ridge wont move in until later this evening but with the deep convection already to the south, the low level jet will have a tough time getting north enough to feed and sustain any convection in our area. With high pressure moving in tonight into tomorrow a little faster than forecast, sky cover was lowered for tomorrow morning into the early afternoon and chances of precipitation were removed after 12Z.
742 PM EDT Thu Jul 31 2025 A hot start to this Thursday with temperatures already reaching the lower to mid 90s and heat index values following into the triple digits. Guidance has struggled to capture the warming trend and was several degrees cooler at the start of diurnal warm-up this morning which necessitated a quick grid update to trend towards the warmer side of the guidance envelope. (Today through Friday) Upper level ridging remains in place across Florida today. Overnight and early morning scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will give way to sea-breeze driven storms during the afternoon and early evening each day, with the highest PoPs favoring inland areas and SW FL.
Otherwise, with the aforementioned trough overhead, a cooler and drier airmass will advect into the region, supporting comfortable temperatures and humidity levels tonight through Friday night.
445 AM EDT Fri Aug 1 2025 * After a notably warm and wet July, August begins with a cooler and dry stretch of weather.
427 AM EDT Fri Aug 1 2025 * Cooler and less humid today into the weekend with temperatures more typical of early fall.
Status quo today as the high remains over the Upper Midwest. This high pressure will begin to move out tomorrow finally allowing some flow to resume and to move some of this smoke out. The smoke acts similar to clouds and sends some of the sun's heat back into space keeping us cooler.
200 AM CDT Fri Aug 1 2025 - Another day of below normal temperatures this afternoon with highs in the low 80s.
Persisting Smoke High pressure continues southward today, settling over the Upper Mississippi River Valley by the afternoon where it stagnates as we head into the weekend. Given the west to northwesterly flow aloft ushering wildfire smoke into the region and broad subsidence associated with the high, vertically integrated and near surface smoke should remain into the weekend bringing hazy skies, reduced visibilities, and unhealthy air quality to the region.
KEY MESSAGES: - Cooler conditions expected today - Stray showers may linger along the ridges of West Virginia --------------------------------------------------------------- A stationary boundary is south of Morgantown early this morning, as observed by surface sensors. Lingering clouds south of Pittsburgh are shown by GOES-19 satellite, caused by remnant moisture and advancing cooler air. Patchy dense fog is also present in the West Virginia ridges, due to boundary layer saturated and light winds. Probability of measurable precipitation through early afternoon is above 70% for areas south of I-70; highest probability along the ridges with weak convergence. KEY MESSAGES: - Quiet and dry conditions expected Friday night ---------------------------------------------------------------- Stray shower activity along the ridges will likely dissolve before sunset. Quiet and dry conditions are likely under high pressure Friday night. KEY MESSAGES: - Pattern shift supports cooler conditions over the weekend.
1235 AM CDT Fri Aug 1 2025 - Low to medium chances (20-50%) for showers and thunderstorms mainly Friday and Saturday with locally heavy downpours and gusty winds possible - Near seasonable late July-early August temperatures/heat indices (Tonight through Friday night) The subtropical ridge slowly drifts west today allowing an inverted trough to shift west towards the Texas coast. Better chances for rain come tomorrow as a weak cold front enters Texas and drifts south towards our area during the day.
Meanwhile, a light northeast wind off the relative warmer waters of Lake Winnebago kept Oshkosh at 65 degrees.
148 AM EDT Fri Aug 1 2025 High pressure will begin to build in today for the weekend. The stationary cold front across southern New England has sagged south and exited our region. Considerably cooler and drier air has begun to filter in under north/northwesterly flow. Some fair weather cumulus are possible over the eastern Greens, but otherwise today will be quiet and comfortable with highs in the low to mid 70s. Another night of strong radiational cooling looks likley Saturday night with lows in the low to mid 50s.
142 AM EDT Fri Aug 1 2025 Stacked ridging expected to remain from the W Atlantic over S FL and into the S Gulf through the weekend as a weak frontal boundary sags through the Deep South into N FL. Weak high pressure will remain over the Southern Gulf with light southwest flow over the local waters into the weekend.
High pressure will remain anchored over the Great Lakes region today through the weekend resulting in much more comfortable humidity levels across central Illinois as compared to the recent heat wave.
155 AM EDT Fri Aug 1 2025 High pressure will gradually build southeast from Canada and the Great Lakes today into Saturday, providing dry conditions along with below normal temperatures and comfortable humidity levels. Patchy fog may occur in favored sheltered spots and near warmer bodies of water. Lows will be quite cool ranging from mid/upper 40s in the higher terrain to lower/mid 50s in lower elevations. Mostly sunny/clear and cool conditions will persist Sat through Sat night with high pressure in place, with again just some patchy fog possible in typical spots.
236 AM CDT Fri Aug 1 2025 - Cooler temperatures will occur into this weekend.
224 AM EDT Fri Aug 1 2025 High pressure will build in from the west today and tonight and slide south of the area Saturday into Saturday night.
At the upper levels a trough is digging in the eastern US, while upper level high pressure remains over FL and the Gulf. The heat will continue to be the story today as well, as afternoon high temps will once again reach the lower 90s across the metro and middle 90s over inland South FL.
1127 PM MDT Thu Jul 31 2025 - Showers and thunderstorms will form along the high terrain tomorrow afternoon with an increasing potential for gusty outflow winds up to 45 mph. The coverage of afternoon convection will decrease as a result with most showers and storms developing over the higher terrain. Lingering moisture will allow for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms over the high terrain on Saturday.
1221 AM CDT Fri Aug 1 2025 Updated at 1220 AM CDT Fri Aug 1 2025 - A weak cold front helps bring near to slightly below normal highs and low (10-30%) rain chances over the Davis Mountains and Permian Basin/Low Rolling Plains Friday afternoon.
1253 AM CDT Fri Aug 1 2025 - Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected across much of the Four-State area on Friday and Friday night with slow movement along the cold front.
Friday into Saturday, the upper trough and moisture axis shifts into Idaho, however the trough will still be close enough to support storm chances for northern Nevada during the afternoon. Another factor will be mid level moisture, with the trough axis shifting north, moisture will also be on a downward trend meaning any storms that do form will have a greater probability of being dry, with the main hazards of gusty outflow winds and lightning strikes.
223 AM EDT Fri Aug 1 2025 High pressure and a dry and cooler airmass will remain in place across the region into the weekend. High pressure will remain in place across the Great Lakes tonight into Saturday with dry and cooler conditions continuing.
(Today through Saturday) Increased moisture within a mid and upper level shear axis/trough is noted on GOES satellite layer precipitable water products and 00Z sounding data. Depending on how much convection develops over north Texas on Friday, we will need to monitor for a weak cold front/outflow boundary approaching from the north.
- Cooler and less humid conditions will persist through the weekend.
213 AM CDT Fri Aug 1 2025 - High pressure will bring comfortable temperatures and humidity levels today through this weekend.
An upper trough combined with copious moisture and instability resulted in scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms.
Scattered to numerous diurnally- driven showers and thunderstorms expected to spark again as broad mid and upper level troughing and a surface front pushes south into N GA later this morning. daytime heating, a cold front, and increased moisture, and we are will have an atmosphere able to support several loosely organized storm clusters, along with some strong to severe storms. These storms will continue ahead of the cold front overnight into Sat as the front continues to move southward through the area.
A broad upper level trough over eastern Canada remains visible on GOES-19 water vapor imagery as upper level ridge sits over the western part of the CONUS, with its ridge axis along the Rocky Mountains.
158 AM EDT Fri Aug 1 2025 Cool and dry with high pressure in control today through Saturday.
144 AM EDT Fri Aug 1 2025 A cold front has moved through the area, ushering in a cooler and drier airmass for the end of the week and the upcoming weekend. Lingering low-level moisture trapped beneath a developing inversion, coupled with light northerly winds will continue to support the formation of low stratus and pockets of fog where low clouds intersect the higher terrain. The persistent low clouds may inhibit some diurnal heating, keeping afternoon high temperatures in the upper 70s for most lowland locations, with cooler readings in the higher terrain. A cooler and less humid airmass will be in place, with below-normal temperatures expected.
Greatest chances for showers and thunder will generally be across the high terrain, with HREF probability of thunder ranging 30 to 80 percent across the central mountains and up to a 50 and 60 percent chance in the Island Park region and South Hills region, respectively. Daytime highs across the lower elevations will span the 80s, with 60s and 70s in the mid to high elevations.
The two main players are a large upper low east of Hudson Bay, and an expansive upper ridge over the Plains. We remain under the far SW periphery of the large upper low over Eastern Canada. This position keeps all of the jet energy north of the area, but relatively cooler temperatures with the lower heights overhead.
High pressure continues to sit over the Upper Midwest, & with it comes little change on our forecast as smoke from Canadian wildfires continues to linger over the area through at least Saturday. An air quality alert remains in effect through Saturday with AQI values in the Unhealthy (Red) & Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups (Orange) categories are expected to persist until the high moves out of the region. We may see a denser concentration of smoke tomorrow morning as subsidence increases with the center of the high pressure moving overhead and areas of fog & mist overnight make for some murky skies around sunrise.
1121 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025 - Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected across much of the Four-State area on Friday and Friday night with slow movement along the cold front.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms already increasing in coverage across the high terrain of Carbon and Albany Counties this afternoon and moving slowly eastwards into a more favorable environment for convective development. Most likely culprits with this would be clustered storms with near to severe hail and some strong wind gusts, and with the high PWAT values for this time of year another round of flooding concerns can't be ruled out as well. The mid-/upper-level flow will be characterized by ridging over the High Plains and Intermountain West.
A slowly migrating and broad/messy trough-ridge-trough pattern seen across CONUS tonight, with the ridge broadly centered over the eastern Rockies up into western Canadian Plains.
Both 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature outlooks are showing enhanced probabilities for warmer than normal. This resulted in high temperatures in the lower and mid-70s.
Updated at 117 AM CDT Fri Aug 1 2025 - A weak cold front helps bring near to slightly below normal highs and low (10-30%) rain chances over the Davis Mountains and Permian Basin/Low Rolling Plains this afternoon.
Early morning RAP analysis has steep mid/upper level ridging over the Rockies and troughing over Quebec and into the northeastern US. Meanwhile, at the surface, high pressure is centered over the Great Lakes. Subsidence courtesy of our high pressure should maintain near-surface smoke today through Saturday. Daytime heating and moderating 850mb temperatures aloft will have temperatures coming in slightly higher today, peaking in the lower/mid 70s for most.
Issued 303 AM CDT Fri Aug 1 2025 Today and Tonight: Quiet weather is expected today and tonight as high pressure builds in from the northwest. Mostly clear skies are likely under the high through tonight along with winds generally under 10 mph much of the time. The latest wave forecast suggests that the high swim risk may end a little earlier than originally anticipated, though current winds are outperforming short term guidance.
An inverted trough currently situated along the Texas coast continues to retrograde westward through tomorrow with low chances for showers/thunderstorms as we head into the weekend. Meanwhile a mid-level high and associated ridge continue to shift west allowing for increasing moisture across the region. Overnight lows continue in the mid 70s to the low 80s.
One mitigating factor may be the increase in cloud cover as a cold front continues to move south through the area. This front has also helped to bring temperatures down into the lower 70s for the first time since mid July.
1245 AM CDT Fri Aug 1 2025 - Cooler temperatures will occur into this weekend. Surface pattern this afternoon was highlighted by high pressure over the northern Plains into the Great Lakes filling in behind the cold front that moved through the region overnight into southern AR to along the Red River with an inverted trough extending along I-44 in OK into southeast KS. Aloft a north to south orientated upper ridge extended from the desert southwest up the Rockies and closed lows/troughs over the British Columbia coast and another exiting the eastern Canada.
The thermal ridge south of the boundary will support reaching Heat Advisory criteria (HI of 105+), and wouldn't be surprised if we see a few locations reach extreme heat criteria (HI of 110+), but considerable diurnal convective coverage will limit the duration and will hold off on another extreme heat warning.
(Tonight through Saturday night) An upper level trough noted across the forecast area this afternoon with the cyclonic motion of the showers seen on radar around it. Also, with the high moisture and the upper level trough overhead, shower activity is expected to redevelop again overnight and toward the morning getting an early start to the rain on Friday, then activity possible at almost any time come late Friday night into Saturday with the surface front becoming involved. With the high moisture content and relatively lighter winds in the mid levels for slow movers, any sort of instability that gets storms going, will have the potential for torrential downpours and thus a small risk for flash flooding, especially any poor urban drainage areas.
(Through Saturday) Weak ridging over the eastern Gulf, with troughing from western Louisiana to south Texas.
Temperatures are quietly sinking towards their minimums with values in the lower to mid 80s. Mean layer ridging over southeast CONUS will continue to hold control of our sensible weather. From synopsis, a weak western arm of an Atlantic ridge will remain across South Florida and the Keys over the next couple of days. The ridge will lift northward into Central Florida heading into the weekend.
224 AM EDT Fri Aug 1 2025 High pressure will begin to build in today for the weekend. The stationary cold front across southern New England has sagged south and exited our region. Considerably cooler and drier air has begun to filter in under north/northwesterly flow. Some fair weather cumulus are possible over the eastern Greens, but otherwise today will be quiet and comfortable with highs in the low to mid 70s. Another night of strong radiational cooling looks likley Saturday night with lows in the low to mid 50s.
Today, western Kansas found itself well into the cooler air mass, but it also remained quite moist with dewpoints remaining in the lower to mid 60s across much of the region as afternoon temperatures warmed to just a little bit above 80F as of 20Z (3 PM CDT). Later tonight, thunderstorms over the higher terrain of Colorado will organize into a mesoscale convective system (MCS) as they move east toward northwestern Kansas overnight.
602 AM EDT Fri Aug 1 2025 A cold front has moved through the area, ushering in a cooler and drier airmass for the end of the week and the upcoming weekend. Lingering low-level moisture trapped beneath a developing inversion, coupled with light northerly winds will continue to support the formation of low stratus and pockets of fog where low clouds intersect the higher terrain. The persistent low clouds may inhibit some diurnal heating, keeping afternoon high temperatures in the upper 70s for many lowland locations, with cooler readings in the higher terrain. A cooler and less humid airmass will be in place, with below-normal temperatures expected.
Stacked ridging expected to remain from the W Atlantic over S FL and into the S Gulf through the weekend as a weak frontal boundary sags through the Deep South into N FL. Weak high pressure will remain over the Southern Gulf with light southwest flow over the local waters into the weekend.
603 AM CDT Fri Aug 1 2025 - Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected across much of the Four-State area on Friday and Friday night with slow movement along the cold front.
658 AM EDT Fri Aug 1 2025 * Cooler and less humid today into the weekend with temperatures more typical of early fall.
732 AM EDT Fri Aug 1 2025 High pressure will begin to build in today for the weekend. The stationary cold front across southern New England has sagged south and exited our region. Considerably cooler and drier air has begun to filter in under north/northwesterly flow. Some fair weather cumulus are possible over the eastern Greens, but otherwise today will be quiet and comfortable with highs in the low to mid 70s. Another night of strong radiational cooling looks likley Saturday night with lows in the low to mid 50s.
407 AM CDT Fri Aug 1 2025 Updated at 406 AM CDT Fri Aug 1 2025 - A weak cold front helps bring near to slightly below normal highs and low (10-30%) rain chances over the Davis Mountains and Permian Basin/Low Rolling Plains this afternoon.
520 AM CDT Fri Aug 1 2025 - Another day of below normal temperatures this afternoon with highs in the low 80s.
Then, this evening, models have an upper low/MCV type feature moving across northern SD, producing additional showers and thunderstorms through tonight. Upper level ridging will remain centered across the Desert southwest and northwest Mexico for the duration of this forecast period.
618 AM CDT Fri Aug 1 2025 - Cooler temperatures will occur into this weekend.
Cronce Issued 303 AM CDT Fri Aug 1 2025 Today and Tonight: Quiet weather is expected today and tonight as high pressure builds in from the northwest. Mostly clear skies are likely under the high through tonight along with winds generally under 10 mph much of the time. The latest wave forecast suggests that the high swim risk may end a little earlier than originally anticipated, though current winds are outperforming short term guidance.
634 AM CDT Fri Aug 1 2025 - High pressure will bring comfortable temperatures and humidity levels today through this weekend.
552 AM EDT Fri Aug 1 2025 High pressure and a dry and cooler airmass will remain in place across the region into the weekend. High pressure will remain in place across the Great Lakes tonight into Saturday with dry and cooler conditions continuing.
High pressure will gradually build southeast from Canada and the Great Lakes today into Saturday, providing dry conditions along with below normal temperatures and comfortable humidity levels. Patchy fog may occur in favored sheltered spots and near warmer bodies of water. Lows will be quite cool ranging from mid/upper 40s in the higher terrain to lower/mid 50s in lower elevations. Mostly sunny/clear and cool conditions will persist Sat through Sat night with high pressure in place, with again just some patchy fog possible in typical spots.
633 AM EDT Fri Aug 1 2025 * After a notably warm and wet July, August begins with a cooler and dry stretch of weather.
631 AM EDT Fri Aug 1 2025 High pressure will build in from the west today and tonight and slide south of the area Saturday into Saturday night.
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: A weak upper ridge over the west will break down into high pressure over the desert southwest and a returned more active jet over the northwest states. The suppressed ridge will also keep temperatures from rising too much above normal.
145 PM EDT Fri Aug 1 2025 Cooler than normal temperatures and comfortable humidity continues today into tomorrow as high pressure gradually builds overhead.
Issued by National Weather Service Albany NY 149 PM EDT Fri Aug 1 2025 High pressure will begin to build in today for the weekend. The stationary cold front across southern New England has sagged south and exited our region. Considerably cooler and drier air has begun to filter in under north/northwesterly flow. Some fair weather cumulus are possible over the eastern Greens, but otherwise today will be quiet and comfortable with highs in the low to mid 70s. Another night of strong radiational cooling looks likely Saturday night with lows in the low to mid 50s.
If these showers continue their progress through the Straits, and eventually Hawk Channel, we may see some sprinkles in the Lower and Middle Keys. Mean layer ridging means subsidence should prevent widespread convective initiation, but boundaries from current activity may trigger occasional new showers. From synopsis, a weak western arm of an Atlantic ridge will remain across South Florida and the Keys over the next couple of days. The ridge will lift northward into Central Florida heading into the weekend.
- Cooler temperatures will occur into this weekend.
There will be plenty of lightning as the lightning probabilities for one cloud to ground flash within 20km of a point is about 80% over the Cascades, which is yet again on the high side for our area.
Ridging aloft remains situated over the Southwest CONUS/Northern Mexico this afternoon, with SE Texas on the eastern peripheral. A weak trough/disturbance is in place just overhead while weak surface boundary approaches from the north.