Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
This boundary is expected to stall across the southern MS this morning ahead of a potent upper level low moving across the Four Corners into the Southern Plains. In return, dewpoints in the lower to middle 60s and MLCAPE values upwards of 1500 J/kg will increase the potential for severe weather late this afternoon into the early morning hours of Monday. A warm sector centered over central/southern LA will allow for the highest potential for severe storms along and south of I-20, where there is a "Slight" Risk (2/5) being advertised. By this evening into the overnight, a cold frontal boundary is expected to have cleared most of the CWA, with some severe potential possible in the Pine Belt by the early morning hours.
5 inches of rain is forecast overnight tonight, with the higher amounts favoring our southeastern counties. The deepening upper low will approach the Mississippi River around noon on Monday pulling warmer temperatures and perhaps a narrow window of increased instability into the midstate. (Monday Night through next Sunday) Temperatures will cool as the upper low passes overhead Monday night. This is most likely for places north of I-40 and on the higher elevations on the Plateau.
The recent low pressure system has moved eastward, and is taking the moisture with it. An attempting ridge, that will gradually become a more zonal flow, will bring drier and warmer conditions throughout the week. We are finally out of the recent active weather pattern, with the last low pressure system moving across southern New Mexico today. A ridge is following behind the trough, but will quickly weaken into a more zonal flow across northern Arizona.
High pressure over the Central Plains provides dry conditions and a somewhat seasonable February chill today. Clouds should generally decrease through today, especially late, as as an active southwesterly jet spilling over into the Ohio Valley slides east in response to a progressive Four Corners trough, taking its abundant cloud cover with it.
- Warmer and drier through mid week. Any lingering fog should dissipate by around 15z, then the low clouds by late morning or early afternoon.
406 AM MST Sun Feb 11 2024 - Lingering snow showers over the far eastern plains are expected to dissipate by around 9am, leaving a cooler but dry and sunny day over southern Colorado.
Dry and warmer conditions will prevail through much of the week.
505 AM CST Sun Feb 11 2024 (Today through Monday) The most recent surface analysis indicated low pressure just north of the Texas Big Bend, with both a cold front and stationary front trailing from this feature. The cold front will gradually work from west to east across Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley today, with precipitation not anticipated courtesy of the front nor through the remainder of the forecast period as the 500 mb flow overhead becomes more zonal and persists.
539 AM MST Sun Feb 11 2024 MORNING UPDATE: Cancelled the Dense Fog Advisory early with the limited area of freezing fog over the Yellowstone River valley quickly mixing out by 5am. -Zanker MORNING DISCUSSION: Today: Freezing fog developed overnight in a generally isolated fashion, aside from persisting along the Yellowstone River valley looking at observations and nighttime microphysics from satellite imagery. A warm frontal passage is leading to rising overnight temperatures and mixing out of the fog seen earlier around Glasgow. This will allow for near to slightly above freezing temperatures despite an increase in cloud cover.
(Today through Monday afternoon) The long awaited upper level low has moved into southern New Mexico this morning and will reach West Texas this afternoon. The stronger thunderstorms ahead of the low have moved east of the area and now the weather threat through this afternoon transitions to accumulating snow. There isn't any cold air ahead of the low with temperatures currently above freezing all the way north to Amarillo. Two locations where snow accumulation begins earlier is northern Lea County which is under an advisory, and the Guadalupe Mountains that are already below freezing and likely already accumulating snow. The highest elevations of the Guadalupe Mountains could see over 6 inches of snow. Wet surfaces combined with hard freezing temperatures are favorable conditions for black ice development, especially on exposed road surfaces like bridges.
Overall the guidance is in decent agreement but some uncertainties still exist where the heaviest banding could set up but most agree that if this does occur, it will likely be to the north of the CWA, Period initiates with a rather robust upper low sitting over SE New Mexico.
High pressure ridge will be shoved eastward later today as a short wave pushes its way into the Northern Rockies (NR) from British Columbia.
1010 AM MST Sun Feb 11 2024 - Warmer and drier through mid week. Any lingering fog should dissipate by around 15z, then the low clouds by late morning or early afternoon.
(Tonight through Monday night) Key Message: - Near freezing wind chill values (feels-like temperatures) late tonight into early Monday morning, especially over northern areas - Hazardous marine conditions tonight through Monday Dry northwesterly flow will continue through the short term with speeds of 10-15 mph tonight increasing to 15-20 mph Monday morning. Tonight will be about 20 degrees colder than last night with lows in the low to mid 40s across South Texas. There is a low (10-30%) chance of feels-like freezing temperatures (wind chills) from Victoria to La Salle County. Sunny skies and slightly below normal highs in the low to mid 60s on Monday.
The influence of the inbound high pressure should gradually erode the widespread low stratus tonight into tomorrow morning. Light easterly flow off of Lake Erie is helping erode the low stratus deck across Metro. Increasing organization to upper level confluence will support dominant 1016mb surface ridging across Southeast Michigan and the Southern Great Lakes today.
Tonight and Monday High pressure is in control of the weather across the region this afternoon with only some mid/high clouds streaking across the region. A dusting to maybe an inch at best, with 1-3 inches perhaps across the highest terrain.
Cuban shadow looks to be keeping cloud cover away from the Lower and Middle Keys this afternoon while a pesky convergence boundary promotes isolated light showers over the Upper Keys and its nearshore waters. Moist dewpoints in the lower 70s note that we have lost our modified continental dry airmass near the surface, but a great deal of dry air aloft is still observed above 850 mb, keeping the few showers that have developed very shallow. Deep layer ridging in the northern Caribbean will be the dominating feature of our sensible weather for the next 24 hours or so. A mid to upper level low currently around north Texas will continue marching east and trigger associated low level cyclogenesis on the northwestern Gulf coast this evening.
(This evening through Monday night) A low pressure system is southeast of Lubbock, making a slight jog east-northeastward or northeastward. Radar shows a plume of moisture moving up into western Oklahoma, then moving southwestward into the southern Texas Panhandle on the backside of the low pressure circulation. As the low pressure progresses and the dry air continues to move in from the north, snow will come to an end this afternoon from northwest to southeast and the Panhandles should dry out this evening. As such, there is some concern for re-freezing of any snow that has already melted which may cause for slippery roads and walkways. The rest of the short-term period looks dry and gradually becoming warmer.
1020 AM MST Sun Feb 11 2024 - Lingering snow showers over the far eastern plains are expected to dissipate by around 9am, leaving a cooler but dry and sunny day over southern Colorado.
High temperatures this afternoon will range from the low 50s in northeast Arkansas and the Missouri Bootheel to the middle 60s in northeast Mississippi.
Winds are veering through the lowest couple thousand feet to a southwesterly direction. Any fog will lift by mid- Monday morning as the next cold front approaches and winds increase.
336 PM EST Sun Feb 11 2024 A low pressure system will move northeast through the Tennessee Valley and across the Appalachians Monday into Monday night. Ahead of the low, rain will spread into the area from the south through Monday afternoon into Monday evening. SLRs will start off on the lower side but should increase somewhat through the event as we continue to cool. Will go ahead and go with a Winter Weather Advisory across parts of our southwest where we currently have the highest snowfall totals, but there remains a significant degree of uncertainty with this forecast and additional changes may be needed with later forecasts.
More rain will spread across the entire area late tonight into Monday as a big low pressure system moves form the Lower Ms Valley up across Tennessee. Although the track of the low pressure is not highly favorable for severe wx, some models show a band of around 500 cape developing over the east half of our area Monday afternoon. As colder wraps in behind the low pressure and its departing moisture Monday night, some of the showers could end as snowflakes.
1155 AM MST Sun Feb 11 2024 - Warmer and drier through mid week.
/ISSUED 435 AM MST Sun Feb 11 2024/ Upper level ridging departs our region today as upper level troughing moves back in this afternoon that is favorable to last through the week. Due to continuous upper level troughing and a strong cold front going to move through the area on Monday night, multiple days of light to moderate accumulating snowfall is likely. When the cold front moves through Monday night, temperatures return to near normal with highs in the 20s and low 30s.
Tranquil conditions across Iowa overnight as high pressure shifting into the area from the west has allowed winds to drop off. This stratus has kept parts of northwest Iowa warm overnight in the low 30s while elsewhere temperatures have dipped into the mid to upper 20s. Activity associated with deep trough across the central US today will remain well south of the area and this will slowly shift east. With increasing sunshine this afternoon temperatures will climb a couple extra degrees today into the low to mid 40s for much of the area. In the wake of the departing trough, Iowa enters into a somewhat chaotic northwest flow pattern this week.
This activity will end from west to east during the late morning hours as a cold front pushes through the region. /96 (Now through Monday) An upper low advances across the south central states through Monday morning, then moves to near the Arkansas/Tennessee border Monday afternoon. The low confidence with the pattern also applies to how the model soundings will evolve, but for the most part there are three main concerns until the front moves through. CAMS (Convection Allowing Models) do indicate some stronger storms developing but for the most part look to remain below severe limits, adding to the low confidence for severe storm development.
929 AM MST Sun Feb 11 2024 - Dry and warmer today as high pressure moves over the state. High pressure covers the area briefly today. Places like the Bighorn Basin and Johnson County may see temperatures around 10 degrees warmer than yesterday. Most mountains will also see highs 10 to 20 degrees warmer today. The high pressure is short-lived. A Canadian trough dips down tonight, flattening the ridge and bringing increasing clouds. Precipitation chances increase for northwest Wyoming and the northern Bighorn Mountains late this evening as the trough approaches. Light snow chances continue through the day Monday, with chances spreading for much of far western Wyoming as the trough dips lower.
This morning a strong southern stream trough was heading from the Four Corners area into the southern plains, while a weaker northern stream wave was progressing east from the northern plains. Some clearing will occur in the wake of the trough passage.
(This evening through Monday) Our storm system continues to move slowly to the east with the upper low centered over the northern Permian Basin as we head into mid afternoon with a continued east to east-northeast direction through the remainder of the afternoon and evening. However, lift and moisture are beginning to wrap around the mature cyclone with stronger radar echoes with a southward component west of the Lubbock area.
1116 AM CST Sun Feb 11 2024 (Today through Monday) The most recent surface analysis indicated low pressure just north of the Texas Big Bend, with both a cold front and stationary front trailing from this feature. The cold front will gradually work from west to east across Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley today, with precipitation not anticipated courtesy of the front nor through the remainder of the forecast period as the 500 mb flow overhead becomes more zonal and persists.
(Today through Monday) Deep-layered high pressure that settled over South Florida over the last few days will begin to shift south and east as the next low pressure system emerges into the central plains from the intermountain west. With South Florida sitting on the western periphery of the high on Sunday and Monday, a spirited southerly wind flow pattern will develop. Overnight minimum temperatures will range from the mid 60s inland to the lower 70s along the Atlantic coast.
Drier and warmer conditions will develop over northern Arizona this week. We are finally out of the recent active weather pattern, with the last low pressure system moving across southern New Mexico today. A ridge is following behind the trough, but will quickly weaken into a more zonal flow across northern Arizona.
With South Florida sitting on the western periphery of the high, breezy southerly winds pattern will develop. Overnight minimum temperatures will range from the mid 60s inland to the lower 70s along the Atlantic coast.
Monday, a strong storm system will be ejecting northeastward from the Lower Mississippi Valley.
1137 AM CST Sun Feb 11 2024 (Today through Monday afternoon) The long awaited upper level low has moved into southern New Mexico this morning and will reach West Texas this afternoon. The stronger thunderstorms ahead of the low have moved east of the area and now the weather threat through this afternoon transitions to accumulating snow. There isn't any cold air ahead of the low with temperatures currently above freezing all the way north to Amarillo. Two locations where snow accumulation begins earlier is northern Lea County which is under an advisory, and the Guadalupe Mountains that are already below freezing and likely already accumulating snow. The highest elevations of the Guadalupe Mountains could see over 6 inches of snow. Wet surfaces combined with hard freezing temperatures are favorable conditions for black ice development, especially on exposed road surfaces like bridges.
Low pressure across SE TX will move NE along the stalled front overnight and into northern AL by early Monday. The low will continue NE into the TN Valley dragging a cold front through the CWA Monday afternoon/evening. Good moisture transport from the GOMEX will continue to provide deep moisture for widespread precipitation overnight and Monday ahead of the cold front. Another round of moderate to locally heavy rainfall will be likely with the cold frontal passage on Monday. Not confident that the stalled front will begin pushing rapidly north as the low pressure moves NE.
Quiet weather conditions across east central Florida this morning with the mid/upper level ridge axis now over the western Atlantic to the east of the Bahamas. Expect partly cloudy to partly sunny skies with afternoon temperatures forecast to reach the low 80s (~5-10 degrees above normal). High pressure remains over the western Atlantic.
A dry and tranquil weather pattern along with a gradual warming trend will prevail through most of this upcoming week as high pressure builds over the region.
Due to recent warm air and resultant warmer grounds, we think this will be a mainly grassy area and elevated surfaces accumulation with minimal impacts as it stands right now.
(This evening through Monday) The upper level ridge that has kept high pressure in control at the surface for the last few days is being pushed farther to the south today as a trough axis digs into Texas. By mid-morning, increasing winds and daytime instability should help lift fog primarily to low clouds over land, but fog could linger across coastal waters through much of the day until a cold front arrives later in the day. This is associated with the aforementioned trough axis propagating eastward. By tomorrow night, the feature will be lifting north of the FL peninsula, with an attendant cold front pushing across the state. Most of the activity should be weakening as it moves south, with the best potential for thunderstorms across the Nature Coast, and the lowest chance across SWFL.
For now much of the excitement remains to the south of us as a strong upper level trough impacts the southern Plains.
Temperatures have warmed into the low to mid 30s across much of the plains, with clouds clearing from northwest to southeast. Westerly flow will dominate the upper level pattern through mid week with lee troughing and warmer temperatures returning.
528 PM CST Sun Feb 11 2024 (Tonight through Monday night) Key Message: - Near freezing wind chill values (feels-like temperatures) late tonight into early Monday morning, especially over northern areas - Hazardous marine conditions tonight through Monday Dry northwesterly flow will continue through the short term with speeds of 10-15 mph tonight increasing to 15-20 mph Monday morning. Tonight will be about 20 degrees colder than last night with lows in the low to mid 40s across South Texas. There is a low (10-30%) chance of feels-like freezing temperatures (wind chills) from Victoria to La Salle County. Sunny skies and slightly below normal highs in the low to mid 60s on Monday.
524 PM CST Sun Feb 11 2024 - Low pressure will bring light snow showers and flurries to the region tonight into Monday with accumulations around an inch or less.
701 PM EST Sun Feb 11 2024 - Above normal temperatures continue through midweek, but a late week cold front cools temperatures to near-normal.
415 PM MST Sun Feb 11 2024 - Warmer and drier through mid week.
As the low moves into eastern Oklahoma during the early part of the overnight hours, wrap around snow will continue to be possible mainly along and east of Interstate 35. This may allow some freezing of slushy roads or where puddles remain.
417 PM EST Sun Feb 11 2024 - Above normal temperatures continue through midweek, but a late week cold front cools temperatures to near-normal.
440 PM MST Sun Feb 11 2024 The upper low that brought us active weather is continuing to sweep eastward and out of the area today. Tonight will be the coldest night of the forecast period with freezing temperatures areawide tonight.
522 PM CST Sun Feb 11 2024 (This evening through Monday) Our storm system continues to move slowly to the east with the upper low centered over the northern Permian Basin as we head into mid afternoon with a continued east to east-northeast direction through the remainder of the afternoon and evening. However, lift and moisture are beginning to wrap around the mature cyclone with stronger radar echoes with a southward component west of the Lubbock area.
Quiet and dry weather will persist under a ridge of high pressure.
Diurnal heating eroded the low cloud deck across metro Detroit this afternoon.
Otherwise expect cooler minimum temperatures tonight into tomorrow morning with Tucson having a 25% chance for reaching 32 degrees. With these cooler temperatures, protect vulnerable populations, pets, outdoor plants and pipes. Looking ahead, the upper level pattern has generally dry zonal (west to east) flow, with some slight thickness increases, for much of the forecast period, meaning that weather will remain dry and become warmer as the week goes on.
724 PM EST Sun Feb 11 2024 A low pressure system will move northeast through the Tennessee Valley and across the Appalachians Monday into Monday night. Ahead of the low, rain will spread into the area from the south through Monday afternoon into Monday evening. SLRs will start off on the lower side but should increase somewhat through the event as we continue to cool. Will go ahead and go with a Winter Weather Advisory across parts of our southwest where we currently have the highest snowfall totals, but there remains a significant degree of uncertainty with this forecast and additional changes may be needed with later forecasts.
504 PM CST Sun Feb 11 2024 (This evening through Monday night) A low pressure system is southeast of Lubbock, making a slight jog east-northeastward or northeastward. Radar shows a plume of moisture moving up into western Oklahoma, then moving southwestward into the southern Texas Panhandle on the backside of the low pressure circulation. As the low pressure progresses and the dry air continues to move in from the north, snow will come to an end this afternoon from northwest to southeast and the Panhandles should dry out this evening. As such, there is some concern for re-freezing of any snow that has already melted which may cause for slippery roads and walkways. The rest of the short-term period looks dry and gradually becoming warmer.
211 PM MST Sun Feb 11 2024 - Warmer and drier through mid week.
Temperatures were mostly in the lower to mid 60s at lower elevations at early afternoon. Despite the warming aloft, coldest valleys will be near or slightly below freezing tonight again due to dew points near or slightly below freezing there, clear skies and mostly light winds, except for local easterly gusts 20-25 MPH through/below passes and canyons.
354 PM CST Sun Feb 11 2024 - Low pressure will bring light snow showers and flurries to the region tonight into Monday with accumulations around an inch or less.
Mid level ridging encompasses much of the Intermountain West early this afternoon. With the ridge axis positioned upstream, a cool and dry northerly flow remains across the forecast area, where despite abundant sunshine temperatures remain near 10F below climo across the south, and 5F below climo across the north. The mean ridge will give way to a more zonal flow by Monday, allowing the airmass to modify and resulting in a warming trend of roughly 5F areawide. A blocking pattern will become established across the eastern Pacific/Gulf of Alaska region through the first half of the week, as a high amplitude but sharp ridge axis resides along the Pacific Coast. Downstream, a longwave trough becoming established across central Canada, inducing a belt of westerlies across the interior Pacific Northwest/northern Rockies region through midweek.
1017 PM CST Sun Feb 11 2024 (This evening through Monday) Our storm system continues to move slowly to the east with the upper low centered over the northern Permian Basin as we head into mid afternoon with a continued east to east-northeast direction through the remainder of the afternoon and evening. However, lift and moisture are beginning to wrap around the mature cyclone with stronger radar echoes with a southward component west of the Lubbock area.
The rain will begin to transition to snow across northeast Oklahoma into northwest Arkansas as we move into the overnight hours as the low level temperature profile becomes more favorable.
The vast majority of this activity is occurring on the north/stable side of a warm front, which has limited the intensity of convective wind gusts.
Other than some high clouds breaking through the west coast ridge, skies remain clear across the region early this morning. Current temperatures are running a little cooler (and RH's higher) across the Central Valley while readings in the foothill and mountain thermal belts are running milder compared to 24 hours ago.
This will be the result of expansive subsidence associated with high pressure.