Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
731 AM EDT Tue Aug 12 2025 * Humid with locally heavy thunderstorm downpours tonight and Wednesday * Mainly dry with above normal temperatures all weekend Patches of lower clouds have started to form over the Lower Susq and Laurels. They'll get tallest over the ridges/high ground and only drift away slightly. The advancing upper trough will really break down the ridge and drag a cold front into OH overnight. Lows tonight will be milder, especially in the Lower Susq where they should stay in the 70s. The high PWAT (1.
629 AM CDT Tue Aug 12 2025 - 20-40% rain chances today and tomorrow, with cooler temperatures in the mid 80s to low 90s.
(Today and Tonight) High pressure ridge axis remains across the region with a southerly steering flow and PWATs that have dropped below 2 inches. The later start to convection will allow for Max Temps to reach into the lower/middle 90s inland and around 90F at the Atlantic Beaches, which will combine with dew point temps generally in the middle 70s for peak heat indices in the 104-108F range, likely remaining below Heat Advisory criteria for one more day.
407 AM CDT Tue Aug 12 2025 - 20-40% rain chances today and tomorrow, with cooler temperatures in the mid 80s to low 90s.
High temperatures for most locations will be a few degrees cooler, with interior Bay Area counties and Santa Cruz County seeing highs in the low 80s to mid 90s compared to the mid 80s to near 105 degrees for interior Monterey and San Benito.
Today and Wednesday, the Desert Southwest will be situated directly below the center of a high pressure system. Regardless, temperatures will cool heading into the weekend as troughing pushes into our forecast area. Moisture trapped beneath the center of the high today may kick off some shower and thunderstorm activity over the Sierra Nevada crest this afternoon, resulting in the potential for gusty winds in the northern Owens Valley and portions of Esmeralda County.
513 AM MDT Tue Aug 12 2025 - Drier and warmer weather through Wednesday.
High pressure overhead will lead to hot and dry conditions Tuesday and Wednesday.
- Cooler and less humid conditions expected today and Wednesday. A cold front is slowly moving westward into the region this morning, and currently stretches from near Lake of the Woods to Bemidji to near Aberdeen. This front will continue eastward today, as an upper trough swings through the Northland. Behind the front, cooler and drier air will filter southward, providing a relief to the mugginess felt the last few days.
638 AM EDT Tue Aug 12 2025 High pressure will continue to shift to our east today.
757 AM EDT Tue Aug 12 2025 - Showers and Storms Likely Today, A Few Severe Storms Possible - Cooler and Dry Late Week - Hot This Weekend With Showers/Storms Possible - Showers and Storms Likely Today, A Few Severe Storms Possible A line of thunderstorms rolling through northern Illinois early this morning may be arriving in West Michigan as early as 9 AM. - Cooler and Dry Late Week Mid-level troughing persists over the area for Wednesday keeping 850mb temps in the mid teens Celsius.
- Isolated to scattered afternoon showers/weak thunderstorms over and near the higher terrain Wed/Thu.
636 AM EDT Tue Aug 12 2025 A warming trend is expected as we head through the week and upper ridging sets up over the Southeastern US.
507 AM MDT Tue Aug 12 2025 - Warmer today with isolated afternoon thunderstorms (a 1 in 5 chance) in and near the northern mountains.
This includes a TUTT cell steadily progressing westward south of Cuba towards the Yucatan Peninsula, a surface area of low pressure just off the northwestern Gulf coast, a series of upper- level lows in the Northern Atlantic, and Tropical Storm Erin in the east-central Atlantic. Meanwhile, the Florida Keys remain under the influence of anticyclonic motion owed to a split ridge, with the closest gyre being centered to the southwest of Bermuda. An Atlantic ridge stretching westward across the Florida Keys will result in gentle to moderate east to southeast breezes over the next couple of days. The ridge will buckle briefly mid week, allowing for breezes to temporarily slacken.
- "Cold" front still on track to move through the area from the northwest late today, leaving us with high pressure and a drier influx of dewpoints. But there will be plenty of convective debris clouds to erode today and may limit instability-diurnal heating some to support more of sctrd coverage as the main upstream upper trof axis will still be off to the west. The eroding debris/clouds and weak LLVL flow should keep the high temps mainly in the low to mid 80 degree range, and sfc DPTs in the low to mid 70s to last until the main upstream(real cool front) starts to sweep in this evening as the upper trof axis starts to migrate off to the east as well.
High temps this afternoon will be in the low to mid 90s, with heat indices over 100 through early evening. Temperatures today will remain in the low 90s across the East Coast, but would reach the mid 90s across the southwest and interior early in the afternoon. Heat indices will reach the low 100s and will approach advisory criteria, but confidence regarding coverage and duration remains poor at this time. Ridging will become more fully established on Wednesday and moisture will remain near climatological norms, with sea breeze interactions once again driving scattered convection in the afternoon.
After today, storms will become increasingly confined to the higher terrain across far eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas during the afternoon hours. With upper troughing remaining overhead, additional showers and storms will remain possible through this afternoon and early evening (20-40% chance). Otherwise, it will be a cooler day with highs in the upper 80s or lower 90s under partly to mostly cloudy skies.
Chances for thunderstorms could be greater in these areas, with higher rain chances and cooler high temperatures today. Wednesday will see much of the same pattern as the low level flow transitions to a southwesterly direction. Cooler high temperatures will once again be present in the eastern portions of the state, though there shouldn't be as wide a spread from west to east in values as the low level flow out of the southwest will keep the state more consistently covered with a scattered to overcast cloud deck.
Similar conditions are expected again tomorrow, with only very slight cooling of a degree or two in response to weak troughing approaching northern California.
A moist southerly flow will continue tonight into tomorrow with the highest storm chances across southwest Florida up through inland/interior west central Florida.
As a deeper upper level trough approaches on Wednesday, temperatures will cool a few degrees in most areas and winds will increase.
1245 PM CDT Tue Aug 12 2025 - 20-40% rain chances today and tomorrow, with cooler temperatures in the mid 80s to low 90s.
A series of weak vorts/shear axis will move north into the periphery of the ridge into the Appalachians enhancing convection.
High pressure from the Atlantic will be expanding westward, reducing rain chances for overnight.
1231 PM CDT Tue Aug 12 2025 - "Cold" front still on track to move through the area from the northwest late today, leaving us with high pressure and a drier influx of dewpoints. But there will be plenty of convective debris clouds to erode today and may limit instability-diurnal heating some to support more of sctrd coverage as the main upstream upper trof axis will still be off to the west. The eroding debris/clouds and weak LLVL flow should keep the high temps mainly in the low to mid 80 degree range, and sfc DPTs in the low to mid 70s to last until the main upstream(real cool front) starts to sweep in this evening as the upper trof axis starts to migrate off to the east as well.
The best chance (30-40 percent coverage) of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening will be over the Davis Mountains, Big Bend Region, and into portions of the Lower Trans Pecos region. An upper-level ridge of high pressure over the Desert Southwest will expand a little further eastward into southeast New Mexico and west Texas on Wednesday.
211 PM EDT Tue Aug 12 2025 - Showers and Storms Likely This Afternoon/Evening With A Few Severe Storms Possible - Cooler and Dry Late Week - Hot This Weekend With Showers/Storms Possible - Showers and Storms Likely This Afternoon and Evening With A Few Severe Storms Possible This morning's storms have led to a differential heating boundary developing roughly from BIV to GRR to AMN. - Cooler and Dry Late Week A cold front crosses the area tonight into Wednesday morning, bringing notably drier air with it. High pressure then moves in for the late week period keeping conditions dry. Mid-level troughing will accompany this high pressure with 850mb temps falling into the mid teens Celsius.
240 PM EDT Tue Aug 12 2025 High pressure will prevail across the region through the end of the week and into the weekend. Lows tonight will range from the lower-mid 70s inland with upper 70s/near 80 closer to the coast and beaches, including Downtown Charleston.
235 PM EDT Tue Aug 12 2025 Increasing clouds with humid conditions can be expected tonight before a cold front moves in on Wednesday bringing occasional showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening. High pressure builds back in for the end of the week and into the weekend. Increasing dewpoints tonight will set the moisture stage ahead of an approaching cold front on Wednesday. Upper level forcing looks fairly weak tomorrow as supporting trof shears away to the north and east taking best PVA with it. high pressure with drier air returns into the weekend with temperatures above normal during the days and average to cool at night.
The main driver for the more active weather will be an inverted trough/easterly wave near the mouth of the Mississippi river that will continue to track west across the northern Gulf. Given the high moisture value and overall weak steering flow, heavy rainfall will be the greatest concern as storms could quickly produce a couple of inches in an hour.
Cooler temperatures will continue today with afternoon highs in the upper 80s for most of the area.
108 PM EDT Tue Aug 12 2025 High pressure will continue to shift to our east today.
- Isolated afternoon high based showers/weak thunderstorms over and near the higher terrain Wednesday.
300 PM CDT Tue Aug 12 2025 - 20-50% rain chances today with cooler temperatures in the mid 80s to low 90s.
Low pressure was located over southern Hudson Bay this afternoon with a cold front trailing back across Ontario, Lake Superior Upper Michigan, Wisconsin, Iowa and further southwest. A secondary trough/cold front was analyzed across northwestern Ontario into southern Manitoba. This activity is being driven by cooler air aloft filtering in behind the primary cold front and daytime heating. High pressure will be overhead for Wednesday and push east of the region Wednesday night. Smoke will continue to affect the area and with the subsidence from the high, some smoke may pool near the surface.
1034 AM MDT Tue Aug 12 2025 - Drier and warmer weather through Wednesday.
- Upper ridging will build into the region by the upcoming weekend, resulting in temperatures returning into the upper 90s. As previously mentioned in recent discussions, an upper-level trough will settle near the Red River over the next couple of days. This trough, combined with weak disturbances in the northern Gulf along the TX/LA coasts, should yield isolated to widely scattered convection over a large portion of the region.
136 PM EDT Tue Aug 12 2025 - Showers and Storms Likely Today, A Few Severe Storms Possible - Cooler and Dry Late Week - Hot This Weekend With Showers/Storms Possible - Showers and Storms Likely Today, A Few Severe Storms Possible A line of thunderstorms rolling through northern Illinois early this morning may be arriving in West Michigan as early as 9 AM. - Cooler and Dry Late Week Mid-level troughing persists over the area for Wednesday keeping 850mb temps in the mid teens Celsius.
1246 PM EDT Tue Aug 12 2025 * Humid with locally heavy thunderstorm downpours tonight and Wednesday * Mainly dry with above normal temperatures all weekend Patches of lower clouds have started to form over the Lower Susq and Laurels. They'll get tallest over the ridges/high ground and only drift away slightly. The advancing upper trough will really break down the ridge and drag a cold front into OH overnight. Lows tonight will be milder, especially in the Lower Susq where they should stay in the 70s. The high PWAT (1.
155 PM PDT Tue Aug 12 2025 * The heat peaks today with cooler weather in store late this week and over the weekend.
- Temps continue to warm into the low and middle 90s, approaching 100 degrees in north central Kansas this weekend. Upper trough axis continues to rotate through eastern Kansas this afternoon as the eastern ridge anchors over the southeast CONUS. Upper trough finally slides eastward this evening as heights build back into the region, signaling dry conditions for the next several days.
410 PM EDT Tue Aug 12 2025 - Poor air quality is expected ahead of the cold front this morning. - A cold front will bring the chance for a few stronger thunderstorms to the south-central and eastern U. - Cooler Wednesday and Wednesday night, but high temperatures rebounding above-normal to near-normal for the late week.
Many locations will top out in the lower 90s today, and that combined with dew points in the upper 60s/lower 70s will result in apparent temperatures in the upper 90s today. Satellite estimates of PW Tuesday afternoon show a large area of close to 2 inch PW just off to the south and west, with this higher moisture content air progged to move into our area by later this evening/tonight.
758 PM EDT Tue Aug 12 2025 Some high clouds will increase tonight with patchy valley fog, as a cold front approaches from the west.
726 PM EDT Tue Aug 12 2025 - Showers and Storms Likely This Afternoon/Evening With A Few Severe Storms Possible - Cooler and Dry Late Week - Hot This Weekend With Showers/Storms Possible - Showers and Storms Likely This Afternoon and Evening With A Few Severe Storms Possible This morning's storms have led to a differential heating boundary developing roughly from BIV to GRR to AMN. - Cooler and Dry Late Week A cold front crosses the area tonight into Wednesday morning, bringing notably drier air with it. High pressure then moves in for the late week period keeping conditions dry. Mid-level troughing will accompany this high pressure with 850mb temps falling into the mid teens Celsius.
630 PM CDT Tue Aug 12 2025 - 20-50% rain chances today with cooler temperatures in the mid 80s to low 90s.
754 PM EDT Tue Aug 12 2025 A weak cold front will cross the area late tonight and Wednesday producing scattered showers and thunderstorms with very uneven coverage.
620 PM CDT Tue Aug 12 2025 The overall upper air pattern remains largely unchanged, with two areas of high pressure centered over the Desert Southwest and Southeastern US, respectively.
The CIMMS mean layer analyses smooth out much of the noise, and place a mean layer ridge just to the east of Florida. A broad ridge stretching across the North Atlantic westward to the Florida Peninsula will result in gentle to occasionally moderate east to southeast breezes for the rest of the week through the weekend.
753 PM EDT Tue Aug 12 2025 High pressure will prevail across the region through the end of the week and into the weekend. Lows tonight will range from the lower-mid 70s inland with upper 70s/near 80 closer to the coast and beaches, including Downtown Charleston.
(Tonight through Wednesday night) Our area continues to be under the influence of a surface boundary with ridges located both to our west, over the four corners region and also to our east, over Florida.
High pressure sitting over the area today has just started to decay, allowing for the hottest interior valleys to drop back close to 100.
The models are in good agreement placing the high pressure centered over the Great Basin extending from the Pacific Coast to Western Colorado and southern Idaho south into Mexico, but satellite analysis puts the center of the high more over southern Utah. This indicates the high is shifting eastward a little faster which may impact the forecast for tomorrow by allowing more moisture to slip in under the high as it slides to the east increase the coverage of thunderstorms across the San Juans through the afternoon, up from isolated to scattered thunderstorms in the current forecast.
The Bermuda high-pressure will help maintain these conditions through late week. As high pressure off the coast weakens, southeasterly flow will veer to a southwesterly flow this afternoon and evening. High pressure will continue to bring warm, moist air to the region on Wednesday. Low temperatures overnight should be in the low-to-mid 70s.
819 PM EDT Tue Aug 12 2025 A cold front crossing the Great Lakes tonight will push across the Upper Ohio River Valley Wednesday and Wednesday night.
802 PM EDT Tue Aug 12 2025 - Poor air quality is expected ahead of the cold front this morning. - A cold front will bring the chance for a few stronger thunderstorms to the south-central and eastern U. - Cooler Wednesday and Wednesday night, but high temperatures rebounding above-normal to near-normal for the late week.
741 PM EDT Tue Aug 12 2025 Increasing clouds with humid conditions can be expected tonight before a cold front moves in on Wednesday bringing occasional showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening. High pressure builds back in for the end of the week and into the weekend. Increasing dewpoints tonight will set the moisture stage ahead of an approaching cold front on Wednesday. Upper level forcing looks fairly weak tomorrow as supporting trof shears away to the north and east taking best PVA with it. high pressure with drier air returns into the weekend with temperatures above normal during the days and average to cool at night.
- Temps continue to warm into the low and middle 90s, approaching 100 degrees in north central Kansas this weekend. Upper trough axis continues to rotate through eastern Kansas this afternoon as the eastern ridge anchors over the southeast CONUS. Upper trough finally slides eastward this evening as heights build back into the region, signaling dry conditions for the next several days. Sfc pressure gradient tightens in central/western KS as troughing develops in the high plains, increasing southerly winds from 10 mph sustained Wednesday afternoon to 15-25 mph sustained Thursday afternoon onward.
The axis of an Atlantic ridge will remain north of the Keys, maintaining a deep easterly flow. As we go through the end of the week and into the weekend, the ridge will gradually lose definition and will bifurcate each afternoon as the Florida Peninsula heats up and develops a thermal trough across the state. A broad ridge stretching across the North Atlantic westward to the Florida Peninsula will result in light to gentle east to southeast breezes for the rest of the week through the weekend.
1207 AM CDT Wed Aug 13 2025 H500 trough making slow progress eastward across the middle of the country will continue to influence local conditions through at least Thursday. This feature will keep mid-level ridging in place across the SE and SW US at bay. As the trough continues to move east it will provide an increase in precip development across the state, especially during the afternoon/evening hours. By late week into the weekend, the mid-level trough will be well east of the region. In its wake, H500 ridging will become reestablished across much of the central/southern US.
253 AM EDT Wed Aug 13 2025 Increasing clouds with humid conditions can be expected today before a cold front moves in, bringing occasional showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening. High pressure builds back in for the end of the week and into the weekend. A slow moving cold front will push through the region today. Upper level forcing will be weak as as supporting trof flattens out with the best PVA across northern NY and New England. high pressure with drier air returns into the weekend with temperatures above normal during the days and average to cool at night.
UPDATE Shower activity has mostly ceased across the LOW region with winds becoming calm in the next few hours. Water vapor satellite imagery this afternoon depicts an upper trough in northern ON into MN, with subsident ridging just upstream within SK/MB into the Dakotas. Cold temperatures aloft nearer to the axis of the upper trough are allowing for showers and weak thunderstorms near Lake of the Woods in northwest MN.
Given the high PWAT values in conjunction with a weak convergent axis and orographic lift, expect heavier rainfall potential across northern GA this evening as storms develop and lift north across the area. Weak trof axis remains generally in place tomorrow so expect a similar type setup with afternoon showers and storms developing within the higher PWAT atmosphere in place.
146 AM EDT Wed Aug 13 2025 Increasing clouds with humid conditions can be expected tonight before a cold front moves in on Wednesday bringing occasional showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening. High pressure builds back in for the end of the week and into the weekend. Increasing dewpoints tonight will set the moisture stage ahead of an approaching cold front on Wednesday. Upper level forcing looks fairly weak tomorrow as supporting trof shears away to the north and east taking best PVA with it. high pressure with drier air returns into the weekend with temperatures above normal during the days and average to cool at night.
Low pressure was located over southern Hudson Bay this afternoon with a cold front trailing back across Ontario, Lake Superior Upper Michigan, Wisconsin, Iowa and further southwest. A secondary trough/cold front was analyzed across northwestern Ontario into southern Manitoba. This activity is being driven by cooler air aloft filtering in behind the primary cold front and daytime heating. High pressure will be overhead for Wednesday and push east of the region Wednesday night. Smoke will continue to affect the area and with the subsidence from the high, some smoke may pool near the surface. Given the better chances to our west near the cold front, there is a SPC slight risk that clips our far northwestern corner with a marginal risk from the Brainerd Lakes area into northern St.
The Bermuda high-pressure will help maintain these conditions through late week. * Rounds of Showers and Storms with Pockets of Heavy Rainfall and Flash Flooding Possible This Afternoon and Evening Today: A series of upper level disturbances and/or MCVs moving east atop the upper level ridge in place over the region will support periods of scattered showers and storms from this morning through the evening and into tonight hours.
Cooler temperatures will continue today with afternoon highs in the upper 80s for most of the area. Bunker (Wednesday through Thursday night) Mid-level trough will continue to push off to the east and higher mid-level heights will begin to push in from the west. Afternoon highs will be a few degrees warmer beneath the upper level ridging. Upper level ridge will be right over us bu Thursday, with warm and dry conditions expected through the day.
* Hot and humid this weekend with highs in the low to mid 90s. Tonight, showers and thunderstorms are expected to begin to weaken and fade as diurnal warming is lost, but this could be short-lived as an upper trough moves east across the Great Lakes as it pulls an embedded cold front towards the CWA. Tomorrow, deep layer moisture remains in place and with the cold front just off to our northwest, scattered showers and thunderstorms will increase with afternoon and evening heating. Highs will reach into the upper 80s to low 90s with dew points ranging from the low to upper 70s. Thursday, the slow moving cold front is expected to drop farther south across the CWA as it weakens.