Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1036 AM EDT Tue Jun 18 2024 High pressure will remain over the Mid Atlantic and Carolinas through much of this week. These below-normal PW values will gradually get advected into central NC by deep (but weak) easterly flow around an anomalous mid/upper anticyclone centered just to our north. Dry air aloft and good boundary layer mixing beneath a strong inversion at 750-800 mb will help dew points decrease to the lower-60s in many places this afternoon, with even some upper-50s possible. The anomalous mid-level ridge will continue to deepen across the mid- Atlantic/northeast US on Wednesday, with heights peaking 2 to 3 standard deviations above climatology. As such, dew points will once again mix out into the lower 60s Wednesday afternoon.
526 AM MDT Tue Jun 18 2024 - Due to a cold front highs today will be 15-20 degrees cooler than yesterday.
High pressure at both the surface and aloft, centered east of the region, will build west and into the forecast area over the next 24 hours. Highs will range from the lower 80s to around 90. For tonight, clouds will remain a staple across the area as lows fall into the low and middle 70s. /19/ Wednesday Through This Weekend: The rather strong 595 dam mid level ridge will have expanded from its origin over the mid-atlantic states across much of the Mid MS Valley. These rain and storm chances will mainly be focused along our southern counties and the highest rain totals will be along the coast nearer to the tropical airmass coming from the Gulf of Mexico.
Broad area of high pressure is stretched across the eastern CONUS. The center of the high remains off the Atlantic coast, keeping the ILN fa on the western periphery of the high pressure system once again.
Issued by National Weather Service Reno NV 321 AM PDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Cold this morning with lows below freezing over most of the region. Low temperatures tonight into Wednesday morning will be a little warmer than this morning, though still around the freezing mark for many valley locations. A cold start to the day with low temperatures this morning below freezing for most of the region. Broad trough energy centers across the Pacific NW today with the southern tip of the trough clipping northern Elko county. Temperatures will be trending warmer today onward, however low temperatures tonight into Wednesday morning will remain below normal, with many valley locations hovering around the freezing mark.
This jet will continue into the morning and bring low clouds in across parts of the Lower Trans Pecos and eastern Permian Basin, including Midland/Odessa. Lows tonight settle into the low 70s for most with 60s in the mountains. Wednesday sees the thermal ridge push to the west as an organizing tropical disturbance begins to move into the Mexican gulf coast. The hot spots along the Rio Grande will still make it over the century mark, but still end up several degrees cooler compared to the last few days.
Today will be the coolest day of the forecast period with high temperatures around 3 to 7 degrees cooler than normal. Current infrared and water vapor satellite imagery show an upper-level trough moving through the Western US. The "cold front" associated with this trough can be seen sweeping through southern California and northwestern Arizona, with gusty northerly winds located behind this front. Outside of northerly winds, we will also see temperatures topping out around 3 to 7 degrees cooler than normal thanks to this trough and it's associated front. Troughing will remain the dominant synoptic feature across the Western US for much of the week. However, we will see 500 mb heights gradually rise as the trough weakens, which will allow for temperatures to take off during the second half of the week with temperatures returning to normal by Wednesday.
Rain chances will diminish tonight into the upcoming weekend as a strong upper-level ridge builds over the Lower Mississippi Valley.
High pressure aloft will gradually build through the week, allowing conditions to dry out and warm up. A pattern change is on track for the weekend as a trough brings wetter and cooler conditions to western Washington.
(Tuesday through Wednesday) Thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure, labeled as Potential Tropical Cyclone One (PTC One), continues to support an impressive northward advecting moisture channel into the Ark-La- Tex this morning.
628 AM EDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Rain-free and seasonably warm conditions for much of this week as high pressure maintains influence over the area. Strong subsidence remains in place today with 5h ridge overhead this morning before it drifts slowly north-northwest later today into tonight. Although a strong mid-level subsidence inversion is in place, the core of the warmth under the ridging aloft shifts northwest, allowing temperatures to moderate compared to yesterday. Expect temperatures to be about 1-3 degrees cooler today and tonight compared to the previous 24 hours.
A cold morning by June standards is in place this morning as low temperatures dip below freezing across Sierra valley communities.
534 AM MDT Tue Jun 18 2024 - Much cooler today, with highs in the upper 50s to middle 60s.
326 AM MDT Tue Jun 18 2024 - Cooler Today and Wednesday with a chance of showers and a few storms.
High pressure at both the surface and aloft, centered east of the region, will build west and into the forecast area over the next 24 hours. Highs will range from the lower 80s to around 90. For tonight, clouds will remain a staple across the area as lows fall into the low and middle 70s.
614 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 (Tuesday through Wednesday) Thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure, labeled as Potential Tropical Cyclone One (PTC One), continues to support an impressive northward advecting moisture channel into the Ark-La- Tex this morning.
Scattered to broken decks of mid/high clouds will continue to filter across the Tennessee Valley today from convection over the ArkLaTex as the region remains in between a strong ridge to the east and a weak trough to the west. Substance from the ridge to the east will suppress convection in our area this afternoon despite the southerly flow.
Everything is on track with daytime highs reaching the lower 90s for many Valley locations. Today Currently early this morning, strong upper ridging is building in with a 500mb high of 5,940m centered just to our east. At the surface, high pressure extends from the Atlantic into the eastern CONUS. Tonight Overnight, the high pressure will continue to intensify and expand from our east with 500mb heights reaching up to 5,960m in our area.
The QPF remains near or less than an inch along the coast with the highest amounts focused from around Cape Canaveral south to the Treasure Coast.
A few light showers moved across the island chain earlier this morning, but have since been relegated to the southwest of the Lower Keys. The 12Z sounding sampled decent moisture in the lower- levels, but drier air has infiltrated from around 750 mb and up with a very dry layer from 500-300 mb. An area of low pressure may develop mid week a few hundred miles north of the central Bahamas towards mid week and move towards the north to central Florida coastline. Scattered showers continue to stream across the Straits of Florida and towards the Lower Keys.
453 AM MDT Tue Jun 18 2024 - Cooler Today and Wednesday with a chance of showers and a few storms.
Sporadic thunder should not be ruled out especially along west-central MS today but expect an overall humid and cooler day today with highs hovering in the mid 80s. High pressure at both the surface and aloft, centered east of the region, will build west and into the forecast area over the next 24 hours. Highs will range from the lower 80s to around 90. For tonight, clouds will remain a staple across the area as lows fall into the low and middle 70s.
Skies should clear mid morning and the heat should build, with highs in the low 90s, amid dew points in the low 70s. Even with the high heat outside, swimming is not advised. Overnight, the large ridge over the eastern United States will lean more latitudinally, allowing for a cold front to make an approach at Wisconsin from the northwest before washing out. This cold front will drag showers and storms over central WI overnight. Through the day on Wednesday, the cold front will become more of a southwest to northeast oriented stationary front from Iowa into lower Michigan.
544 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 - Warm and humid conditions expected the next several days with highs in the low to mid 90s for much of the week - Shower and thunderstorm activity expected Tuesday night into Wednesday for northern portions of the forecast area. We remain caught in the middle with ample warm air advection and southerly flow thanks to the ridge to our west. Temperatures are expected to rise to the low to mid 90s for another day.
(Now through Wednesday) Well the forecast has certainly trended drier the next couple of days as the upper ridge over the western Atlantic noses into the area. The reason for the stronger than originally advertised ridge is the presence of Potential Tropical Storm one over the Bay of Campeche/southwestern Gulf. While this system will likely drift westward into Mexico over the next couple of days, the heat released from this storm is aiding in strengthening the ridge of high pressure. As a result, the ridge promotes more subsidence and slightly drier conditions the next 48 hours. The only rain chances today and tomorrow will likely be confined to the immediate coastline where moisture will be rich enough and the influences of the ridge will not be as strong.
Meanwhile, high pressure establishes over the SE CONUS and expanding into northern Florida, bringing moderate easterlies across SoFlo, possibly gusty at times along the east coast. Heat index values should reach the low 100s each day, but locally higher values are possible.
High pressure centered to our east is keeping a southerly flow over the region, hence the persistent heat and mugginess.
Some temperatures below freezing can not be be ruled out in southwest North Dakota.
310 AM MDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Summary: Cool, wet, and breezy conditions will continue today as the strong upper trough moves through. In the east, showers are quickly lifting northeast ahead of the approaching trough. Over western and central areas, showers are filling in from the northwest behind the passing trough.
Temperatures will continue to rise into the low to middle 90s this afternoon. The positioning of the high will actually lead to a subtle wind shift, becoming more southeasterly.
538 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 (Today through Wednesday Night) To begin the period, high pressure is currently centered just to the east of the state.
- Storms expected to develop along a cold front after 21z this afternoon and will become more widespread this evening as they slowly track south. At the surface, cold front extends from southern MN and into far northwest Nebraska with strong return flow remaining across the southern/central Plains. Current thinking is that locations along and especially north of Highway 50 will have the highest rainfall chances.
620 AM EDT Tue Jun 18 2024 High pressure will remain over the Mid Atlantic and Carolinas through much of this week. The anomalous upper ridge remains anchored over the eastern US as seen on water vapor imagery this morning. Yet another day of dry and hot weather is expected as the upper ridge remains anchored over the northeast US. Given this, dew points should mix out into the lower to mid 60s this afternoon. The anomalous mid-level ridge will continue to deepen across the mid- Atlantic/northeast US on Wednesday, with heights peaking 2 to 3 standard deviations above climatology. As such, dew points will once again mix out into the lower 60s Wednesday afternoon.
Issued by National Weather Service Raleigh NC 953 AM EDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Rain-free and seasonably warm conditions for much of this week as high pressure maintains influence over the area. Strong subsidence remains in place today with 5h ridge overhead this morning before it drifts slowly north-northwest later today into tonight. Although a strong mid-level subsidence inversion is in place, the core of the warmth under the ridging aloft shifts northwest, allowing temperatures to moderate compared to yesterday. Expect temperatures to be about 1-3 degrees cooler today and tonight compared to the previous 24 hours.
Northern Michigan will remain locked between said high pressure and an elongated cyclone stretching across the Upper Midwest/Ontario into Wednesday morning as the ridge/trough inflection point gradually across the northern Great Plains through the period. Tonight will fail to offer meaningful relief from daytime heat as lows only cool into the low to mid 70s across the area. Pattern Synopsis and Forecast: The upper level high will be centered over northern Mid Atlantic region by Wednesday. At the same time an upper level trough will be over central Canada, continuing southwest flow aloft over the Great Lakes region.
/Issued 1141 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024/ /Through Wednesday/ A low pressure system of tropical origin will make westward progress from the Gulf of Mexico into southern portions of Texas over the next 36 hours, steered by weak mid-level easterlies. While the greatest effects of this system will remain well south of the CWA, it will still offer some rain chances during the midweek period, along with slightly cooler temperatures due to attendant widespread cloud cover.
319 AM MDT Tue Jun 18 2024 - Due to a cold front highs today will be 15-20 degrees cooler than yesterday.
07z observations and upper air analysis shows a large longwave trough over the western CONUS leading to southwest winds aloft in the central plains. As the 500 mb longwave trough moves into the northern plains the leading edge of colder air will track into northwest Kansas by the noon hour. This cold front and upper level wave will set the stage for thunderstorms to develop starting in north central Kansas and then extending south and westward along the front by sunset. however given that a strong surface cold front and lower level shear will be high we can't rule out the possibility of some brief landspouts with the storms. The location of the rain will be concentrated between the highway 50 and I-70 corridors.
110 PM Update: The short term period will feature more of the same weather; hot and humid with scattered showers and thunderstorms as multiple waves move around the periphery of the dominating ridge.
Overnight lows will remain seasonable despite the cooler afternoon today as remaining high humidity that has settled over the area will be slow to dry out despite an increasing easterly fetch. An isolated shower or thunderstorm can't be ruled out for the rest of the week mostly along and south of the highway 84 corridor, mostly driven by intense afternoon heating.
Today will be the coolest day of the forecast period with high temperatures around 3 to 7 degrees cooler than normal. North winds remain strong in the lower Colorado River Valley, while elsewhere winds have weakened. Those winds in the lower Colorado River will stay gusty until noon before weakening this afternoon.
240 PM EDT Tue Jun 18 2024 High pressure will cover the region through the end of the week. The persistent ridge as expected has largely suppressed the environment given some slight retrograding to the west and shifting of the more enhanced moisture axis.
Southeasterly flow associated with Potential Tropical Cyclone #1 (PTC1) in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico will instigate precipitation chances south of the I-20 corridor through tomorrow evening. That said, convection and cloud cover will provide meager relief with temperature maximums/minimums continuing above normal in the lower 90s/mid-70s.
Afternoon temperatures will reach the lower 90s with onshore convection expected to develop and propagate into the area through the evening. /16/ (Tuesday through Wednesday) Thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure, labeled as Potential Tropical Cyclone One (PTC One), continues to support an impressive northward advecting moisture channel into the Ark-La- Tex this morning.
Nudged forecast MaxT down slightly with the higher cloud cover forecast as well.
Surface Bermuda ridge and Mid level Mid Atlantic ridge combining to keep things mostly dry over the area but we are in easterly Atlantic flow. Most locations will remain dry through Tonight but some isolated showers and/or storms cannot be ruled out with the easterly flow especially at the highest elevations in the northeast (terrain induced) and across far south-central Georgia. Temperatures are still forecast to be slightly 'cooler' than previous days with forecast highs in the upper 80s to low 90s (80s in the mountains).
1148 AM MDT Tue Jun 18 2024 - Due to a cold front highs today will be 15-20 degrees cooler than yesterday.
This afternoon, the surface analysis shows a 997 mb low in SW Kansas and a 997 mb low in E South Dakota, connected by a cold front which roughly runs from Smith Center KS to Scott City KS. Current thinking is that thunderstorms that form on the front will become linear and grow upscale rather quickly, due to strong convergence in the low levels, weak shear, and storm motion parallel to the boundary.
1208 PM MDT Tue Jun 18 2024 - Cooler Today and Wednesday with a chance of showers and a few storms.
- Much cooler behind a cold front on Wednesday, with temperatures in the 60s and 70s through the day. Midday surface observations depicted an unusually strong cold front for mid June standards, slowing its forward progress from the northwest zones into NW KS. Ahead of the cold front, strong south winds continued, gusting 40-45 mph. Additional rain and thunderstorms will regenerate through at least the first half of Wednesday, as forcing for ascent continues above the slowly advancing cold front. Between unseasonably strong cold advection, and the stratus, Wednesday will be much cooler; the question is how much cooler. Reduced afternoon temperatures to the lower to mid 70s for many zones, but suspect many will hold in the 60s.
Issued by National Weather Service Raleigh NC 332 PM EDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Seasonably warm conditions will continue for the next few days as high pressure sits well offshore. A strong ridge overhead and elongated high pressure offshore continues to bring onshore flow. A ridge over the mid-Atlantic gets nudged southward into the Mid South this period.
Upper level high centered near Virginia/West Virginia/southeastern Pennsylvania will gradually drift northwest over the next 24 hours. There has been some scattered thunderstorm activity develop along the western edge of the ridge this afternoon. Sadly, hot temperatures will persist and will only be a degree or two cooler.
A more focused area of isolated shower/storm chances will become possible by afternoon across northwest Arkansas and northeast Oklahoma as deep tropical moisture associated with potential tropical cyclone one in the Bay of Campeche spreads northward. The upper ridge to the northeast then begins to build back into the Southern Plains for the latter half of the workweek and especially this weekend.
Showers and thunderstorms over the northern zones, north of a line from Galena Summit to Dubois, are expected tonight through midnight tonight, but after this, the instability and the troughing that generated the storm of the last three days will depart to the east.
/21 (Now through Wednesday) Well the forecast has certainly trended drier the next couple of days as the upper ridge over the western Atlantic noses into the area. The reason for the stronger than originally advertised ridge is the presence of Potential Tropical Storm one over the Bay of Campeche/southwestern Gulf. While this system will likely drift westward into Mexico over the next couple of days, the heat released from this storm is aiding in strengthening the ridge of high pressure. As a result, the ridge promotes more subsidence and slightly drier conditions the next 48 hours. The only rain chances today and tomorrow will likely be confined to the immediate coastline where moisture will be rich enough and the influences of the ridge will not be as strong.
Current mesoanalysis shows an upper-level trough over the western U. by the Rocky Mountains, with a ridge over the eastern U. Hot and humid conditions prevail, with temperatures reaching into the mid-80s with the exception of the SE portions of our CWA, where temps are around 80 due to heavier cloud cover, and dewpoints in the high 60s and low 70s. Wednesday paints a similar picture to today, namely hot and humid conditions, with high temperatures reaching into the upper 80s and low 90s, and dewpoint temps in the high 60s. A cold front is forecast to pass through central NE, north-central KS, and northern MO. Model guidance consistently builds a strong ridge over the central and eastern U. This unfortunately gives us no reprieve from hot and humid conditions, with high temperatures in the low to mid-90s through Tuesday.
(This evening through Wednesday) A line of thunderstorms are currently developing along a cold front, which extends from Hill City to Garden City (Kansas). Cloud-cover and rain chances linger over northwest Oklahoma through at least early afternoon, which should keep high temperatures in the low to mid-80's. Expect cloud-cover to begin increasing tomorrow afternoon and overnight from the southeast as the outer bands of Potential Tropical Cyclone One begins to influence our area.
Moisture and instability associated with a weak upper trough will be marginally supportive of convection this afternoon. The highest chances (30-50 percent) are in central Idaho.
Aloft, a 595dam ridge is analyzed over the Carolinas with a longwave trough over the PAC NW. Dry and hot conditions will return on Wednesday and persist through late week as strong upper level high pressure builds in across the Lower Mississippi Valley. Rain chances will diminish tonight into the upcoming weekend as a strong upper-level ridge builds over the Lower Mississippi Valley.
First signs of the monsoon later this week with a shallow surge of moisture into the lower deserts and northwest Arizona.
304 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 - Strong to severe thunderstorms that have developed along the cold front this afternoon are expected to persist into this evening. - Much cooler temperatures (60s and low 70s) and continued unsettled weather is expected Wednesday. The main story with this forecast involves the showers and thunderstorms that have already developed along the boundary of a cold front moving east through the forecast area.
244 PM MDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Satellite and radar imagery showed an upper trough axis across eastern Montana with wrap around precipitation spilling into our central and western zones while the southeast corner of MT was being dry slotted. Otherwise, as the upper trough slowly exits to the Dakotas by evening we will see precipitation winding down. Lows Wed night will be in the lower 40s west to around 50 east.
1217 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 - Warm and humid conditions expected the next several days with highs in the low to mid 90s for much of the week - Shower and thunderstorm activity expected Tuesday night into Wednesday for northern portions of the forecast area. We remain caught in the middle with ample warm air advection and southerly flow thanks to the ridge to our west. Temperatures are expected to rise to the low to mid 90s for another day.
Otherwise building upper level ridging influences building in from the east along with a continuance of southerly based low level flow will provide for dry but seasonally warm temperatures through Wednesday afternoon. Lows tonight will be seasonably mild ranging generally in the low to mid 70s, upper 60s to around 70 Cumberland Plateau Region. Prevalence of scattered to broken high level cloudiness at times will inhibit max heating potential and thus not expecting temperatures to get significantly warmer than these values despite enhancing upper level ridging influences.
Issued by National Weather Service Billings MT 910 AM MDT Tue Jun 18 2024 - Much cooler today, with highs in the upper 50s to middle 60s.