Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Tonight The ridge axis will be overhead. Early this morning, this ridge axis was located over the Northern Plains and it produced dense fog there. Meanwhile, further west additional showers and storms are expected to develop along a cold front.
Sensible weather conditions are quite similar to 24 hours ago with temperatures along the island chain in the lower to mid 80s and dewpoints in the upper 70s. Moderate east to southeast breezes prevail on the Reef tract reinforced by high pressure nosed over mainland Florida. With the mid to upper level trough from last week losing its influence to ridging building back into the area, the SAL riding along the periphery of the previously mentioned ridge finally makes its pass across the Keys this weekend. PoPs will further increase at the start of the week as yet another upper level trough cycles its way towards the Keys.
Another vorticity lobe maxima will move through the region Sunday daytime as a mean broad mid-level trough pushes eastward through the northern U.
In the low- levels, a western Atlantic ridge extends across the Southeast producing southwesterly flow over Central Alabama.
Updated at 251 AM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025 - Warmer temperatures are expected today with another round of isolated showers and thunderstorms expected this afternoon and evening. Upper ridging persists over southern portions of the CONUS including West Texas. Increasing heights and thicknesses from the ridge will slightly warm temperatures today compared to yesterday with 90s expected this afternoon for most of the region.
(Today and tonight) Scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected again today with plenty of moisture in place and an area of low pressure overhead. The moist airmass overhead however will keep lows mostly in the low to mid 70s.
Upper ridge will be in place by Sunday. Winds look to be diminished under the influence of the high pressure. Temperatures look similar to today and Saturday, perhaps a degree or two warmer.
And the frontal boundary shifts storms out of the CWA before the low level jet influences storm mode. An upper level trough sets overhead for Sunday, with weak high pressure.
A more organized trough is shown to kick east across the Canadian prairies later tonight into Sunday.
On Sunday, a cold front will push through the forecast area, with cooler highs from the upper 70s to low 80s north central to the the mid to upper 80s southwest.
Cold front moves through the area late Saturday into early Sunday.
Therefore, the mostly rinse and repeat nature of the forecast will generally carry the day through this weekend as somewhat fractured upper-level ridging will allow for an uptick in rain chances mainly in southern zones for the latter half of the weekend on Sunday. In the meantime, rain chances will remain more limited with high temperatures each day ranging from the lower to mid 90s.
Confidence is much lower for areas to the east of the current tornado watch considering the convection should outrun the low level jet. Cold front moves through the area late Saturday into early Sunday. KFAR has the highest probability for TSRA, along with gusty winds.
357 AM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025 - Hot today and Sunday ahead of the next cold front with widespread mid to upper 90s for highs and heat indices 100-102 across central and south central Kansas. - Cold front pushing south late Sunday will become the focus for organized thunderstorm activity.
1220 AM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025 A closed upper low meandering across the northern Gulf has brought increased showers and storms to the area this afternoon. As we head into the weekend, this upper low will loiter around the area and slowly get absorbed by a northern stream trough by Sunday. We will remain squished between an upper low over Florida and upper level ridging across to our west.
Otherwise, temperatures today climb into the mid to upper 80s for most, upper 70s for those in north central Wisconsin with heat indices in the low to mid 90s.
625 AM EDT Sat Jun 28 2025 (Today and tonight) Scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected again today with plenty of moisture in place and an area of low pressure overhead. The moist airmass overhead however will keep lows mostly in the low to mid 70s.
614 AM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025 Updated at 613 AM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025 - Warmer temperatures are expected today with another round of isolated showers and thunderstorms expected this afternoon and evening. Upper ridging persists over southern portions of the CONUS including West Texas. Increasing heights and thicknesses from the ridge will slightly warm temperatures today compared to yesterday with 90s expected this afternoon for most of the region.
550 AM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025 - Hot today and Sunday ahead of the next cold front with widespread mid to upper 90s for highs and heat indices 100-102 across central and south central Kansas. - Cold front pushing south late Sunday will become the focus for organized thunderstorm activity.
Upper level high pressure builds over the region through the day, bringing increased sunshine and warmer conditions.
- Strong to severe storms possible on Sunday as storms develop along a cold front.
This weekend features hot and dry weather as high pressure aloft overspreads the western states.
Based on the 12Z discussion, the key driver behind the increased severe tstm risk level (from 1 to 2 out of 5) was more influence (forcing) from southern extent of weak mid level trough crossing southern Ontario. The trailing cold front/wind shift has not crossed Lake Erie as of 1430Z. Hires models all generally agree in storm development along/ahead of the weak cold front/wind shift or perhaps prefrontal/lee trough.
707 AM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025 A closed upper low over southern Florida meanders north to over the eastern Southeast through the weekend and opens up.
616 AM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025 (Today through Sunday) Similar to previous days, scattered low clouds increase overnight with morning lows in the low to mid 70s across the area. Relatively quiet conditions are expected today as mid-level ridging will be overhead.
304 PM EDT Sat Jun 28 2025 Cold front exits this evening, replaced by high pressure through Sunday night.
Synoptic features have not changed much across the region with weak waves noted over Nebraska and Missouri, and stronger zonal flow across the northern Plains with weak ridging over the southern Plains. Overnight tonight and into Sunday morning, low-level response from a deepening lee cyclone in the high Plains should increase isentropic ascent over eastern Kansas.
115 PM EDT Sat Jun 28 2025 Bermuda high pressure will remain to our east through the weekend.
At the upper levels a high hgt (~581 dam) upper low will spin to the west of Pt Conception.
1253 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025 A closed upper low over southern Florida meanders north to over the eastern Southeast through the weekend and opens up.
1226 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025 Under the influence upper ridging, temperatures are trending as expected so far this morning on our way to the lower and mid 90s for afternoon highs. Despite the influence of the upper ridge, still anticipating some isolated to widely scattered convection this afternoon and did expand slight chance PoPs to account for this slim possibility.
1207 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025 - Hot today and Sunday ahead of the next cold front with widespread mid to upper 90s for highs and heat indices 100-102 across central and south central Kansas. - Cold front pushing south late Sunday will become the focus for organized thunderstorm activity.
327 PM EDT Sat Jun 28 2025 Weak low pressure will cross the region tonight.
From synopsis, broad surface ridging will continue to rebuild over the Atlantic and support gentle to moderate east to southeasterly breezes across Florida Keys coastal waters. Temperatures are quickly rising, well into the upper 80s, with feels-like temperatures into the low 100s. With the mid to upper level trough from last week losing its influence to ridging building back into the area, the SAL riding along the periphery of the previously mentioned ridge finally makes its pass across the Keys this weekend. PoPs will further increase at the start of the week as yet another upper level trough cycles its way towards the Keys.
Mostly dry and quiet conditions are expected tonight, though some scattered showers/ isolated thunderstorms may impact parts of far northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas as the low level jet intensifies overnight. Lows remain seasonable in the lower to mid 70s.
Thunderstorms will increase in coverage and intensity through the day across the watch area, ahead of an approaching cold front. Based on the 12Z discussion, the key driver behind the increased severe tstm risk level (from 1 to 2 out of 5) was more influence (forcing) from southern extent of weak mid level trough crossing southern Ontario. The trailing cold front/wind shift has not crossed Lake Erie as of 1430Z. Hires models all generally agree in storm development along/ahead of the weak cold front/wind shift or perhaps prefrontal/lee trough.
We start out with weak H7 troughing today and weak cold front to our west, with a warm front being lifted northward ahead of the cold front. As the cold front continues east overnight, look for slightly drier air to work into the area on Sunday.
Temperatures are quickly rising, well into the upper 80s, with feels-like temperatures into the low 100s. From synopsis, broad surface ridging will continue to rebuild over the Atlantic and support gentle to moderate east to southeasterly breezes across Florida Keys coastal waters.
But generally overall, should top out in the low 90's similar to what we saw yesterday.
Initially, a weakness in the broader upper-level ridge pattern over our region will keep temperatures from becoming too excessive. Expect highs and lows to be near or even a few degrees cooler than normal for late June/early July. A building upper-level ridge over the High Plains by mid week will create a more northwesterly flow regime over the central and eastern CONUS by mid to late week, which might even allow a cold frontal boundary to dip into our area.
242 PM EDT Sat Jun 28 2025 A cold frontal boundary will move through the region tonight with some showers and thunderstorms.
- Afternoon storm chances return to the high terrain tomorrow with coverage increasing as the week progresses. Warm and dry conditions will continue through the weekend as high pressure builds.
Updated at 1156 AM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025 - The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is monitoring an area of low pressure over the Yucatan Peninsula, giving it a medium (50%) chance of tropical development over the next 48 hours.
The most favorable environment for any potentially severe thunderstorms remains in the vicinity of a warm front lifting slowly northward out of South Dakota. A more organized trough is shown to kick east across the Canadian prairies later tonight into Sunday.
(This evening through Sunday) Upper-level ridging along with a thermal ridge in place across part of the region will keep warm temperatures and minimal chances for precipitation in the forecast for the next 24 hours.
1219 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025 Updated at 1217 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025 - Warmer temperatures are expected today with another round of isolated showers and thunderstorms expected this afternoon and evening. Upper ridging persists over southern portions of the CONUS including West Texas. Increasing heights and thicknesses from the ridge will slightly warm temperatures today compared to yesterday with 90s expected this afternoon for most of the region.
Expect scattered storms to redevelop through the afternoon with the higher coverage from SE OK through western AR and points eastward.
- A threat for storms is expected late in the weekend, with the highest chances from Sunday evening into the overnight period. So far today, there have only been reports of spotty light rain or sprinkles along the Highway 20 corridor.
105 PM EDT Sat Jun 28 2025 Bermuda high pressure will remain to our east through the weekend.
- Storms (some possibly severe) are expected along a cold front Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening.
(Tonight through Sunday night) The latest GOES-19 Regional Water Vapor imagery shows weak mid-level ridging still in place over South Central Texas this morning. Factoring in afternoon dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s and lower 70s, it'll feel just a few degrees warmer for most, with heat indices in the 98-105 range. On Sunday, mid-level ridging weakens slightly and gets pushed eastward. This will open the door for a return to weak southeasterly flow aloft on the backside of the high.
This is mainly due to the mid-level ridge, currently overhead, that is bringing a drier airmass across southeast TX with precipitable water values into the 1.
1101 AM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025 Under the influence upper ridging, temperatures are trending as expected so far this morning on our way to the lower and mid 90s for afternoon highs. Despite the influence of the upper ridge, still anticipating some isolated to widely scattered convection this afternoon and did expand slight chance PoPs to account for this slim possibility.
Ridging continues to set up over Arizona and New Mexico.
The low level environment for tornado potential across the eastern forecast zones has been notable.
The aforementioned clouds eventually broke up, allowing for some airmass modification and a few storms to kick up in the Lower Susquehanna Valley, but instability was limited due to the short amount of time that area saw direct sunlight. Sunday will see a return of sunshine, drying conditions, and warmer temperatures once high pressure is in control. High temps on Sunday will reach the low 80s across the northern tier of the commonwealth to the low 90s near south central PA along the Mason Dixon line.
705 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025 (Tonight through Sunday night) The latest GOES-19 Regional Water Vapor imagery shows weak mid-level ridging still in place over South Central Texas this morning. Factoring in afternoon dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s and lower 70s, it'll feel just a few degrees warmer for most, with heat indices in the 98-105 range. On Sunday, mid-level ridging weakens slightly and gets pushed eastward. This will open the door for a return to weak southeasterly flow aloft on the backside of the high.
758 PM EDT Sat Jun 28 2025 Cold front exits this evening, replaced by high pressure through Sunday night.
The region remains on the western periphery of an upper low over the southeast states to Appalachians, with light northerly flow aloft. GOES East water vapor imagery indicate upper low to our east, with broad convective development over the Ozarks into the Mid South region. Initially, a weakness in the broader upper-level ridge pattern over our region will keep temperatures from becoming too excessive. Expect highs and lows to be near or even a few degrees cooler than normal for late June/early July. A building upper-level ridge over the High Plains by mid week will create a more northwesterly flow regime over the central and eastern CONUS by mid to late week, which might even allow a cold frontal boundary to dip into our area.
935 PM EDT Sat Jun 28 2025 Bermuda high pressure will remain to our east through the weekend.
823 PM EDT Sat Jun 28 2025 Bermuda high pressure will remain to our east through the weekend.
A surface Atlantic ridge stretches westward across Florida and has carried in a Saharan Air Layer has spread across the area. This along with the lower level high centered across our broader area has resulted in quite stable conditions. While surface conditions are seasonable, with temperatures in the mid 80s and dew points in the mid 70s, there is a healthy inversion based a bit below 900 mb with considerable dry air through the lower levels. Surface through lower level ridging will continue to dominate through the overnight period, along with the Saharan Air. This steady breeze will maintain seasonably warm conditions with lows in the lower 80s. Atlantic ridging across Florida will maintain broadly gentle to moderate east to southeasterly breezes on Keys waters overnight.
630 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025 Updated at 615 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025 - The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is monitoring an area of low pressure over the Yucatan Peninsula, giving it a medium (50%) chance of tropical development over the next 48 hours.
836 PM EDT Sat Jun 28 2025 Showers and thunderstorms are likely Sunday as a weakening cold front drops southward into the area.
904 PM EDT Sat Jun 28 2025 Weak low pressure will cross the region tonight.
659 PM EDT Sat Jun 28 2025 Cold front exits this evening, replaced by high pressure through Sunday night.
947 PM EDT Sat Jun 28 2025 Cold front exits this evening, replaced by high pressure through Sunday night.
1235 AM EDT Sun Jun 29 2025 Bermuda high pressure will remain to our east through the weekend.
- Independence Day looks seasonal with highs in the lower 90s and a 20% chance for a shower or storm.
Temperatures will increase quickly this morning and peak in the low 90s once again this afternoon. Otherwise, temperatures will fall to the low/mid 70s.
Increasing heat toward the holiday weekend with temperatures returning to the lower 90s. At this time latest guidance is giving us a roughly 30 to 50% chance of seeing precipitation, with the high chances looking to follow in late evening hours thanks to the passage of a cold front. Regardless, the combined effort of the excess moisture and cold frontal passage could see storms run into overnight, especially for the southeast.
So wouldn't that suggest the high PWATs will win out? Well. Considering this forecast has managed to become more uncertain than I thought it was yesterday, I've decided to go along with the lower PoPs the NBM is selling. For the remainder of the week, increased ridging and lingering mid- level dust results in a lower PoP regime with higher temperatures.
305 AM EDT Sun Jun 29 2025 Bermuda high pressure will remain offshore into the early part of the week.
- A threat for storms is expected late in the weekend, with the highest chances from Sunday evening into the overnight period. So far today, there have only been reports of spotty light rain or sprinkles along the Highway 20 corridor. Monday is a transition day, with cooler air arriving in the afternoon, and passing energy aloft with the upper trof near our area. Highs will be a notch cooler, with mid to upper 80s forecast.
The hottest day is expected to be Monday, when many spots across the interior valley could reach the low 90s. After that, temperatures cool a bit but remain on the warmer side.
413 AM EDT Sun Jun 29 2025 - Slightly warmer and more humid this afternoon with heat indicies in the low to mid 90s. Warm front will begin to edge back north today, allowing for afternoon highs to reach the upper 80s to near 90 even along the lakeshore areas of Lk MI. Better chances arrive Monday afternoon during peak heating, but lack of defined trigger areas still exists before the main cold front arrives late afternoon into the evening. Overall atmosphere will be similar to end of last week with more of a pulse nature to storms and some potential for limited organization as best shear and dynamics lag the cold front.
Widely scattered showers with perhaps a rumble of thunder remains possible overnight as cold front works its way eastward. We start out with weak H7 troughing today and weak cold front to our west, with a warm front being lifted northward ahead of the cold front. As the cold front continues east overnight, look for slightly drier air to work into the area on Sunday. Monday brings another chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms to northwest Minnesota along a weak trough traversing northwest flow.
Quiet weather is forecast for the remainder of today and Sunday as an upper-level ridge of high pressure builds into the Pacific Northwest.
- Afternoon storm chances return to the high terrain tomorrow with coverage increasing as the week progresses. Warm and dry conditions will continue through the weekend as high pressure builds. High pressure will still be overhead Monday as a deep area of low pressure spins off the California Coast.
Isolated showers and thunderstorms again this afternoon, mainly across the higher elevations.
122 AM EDT Sun Jun 29 2025 Cold front exits this evening, replaced by high pressure through Sunday night.
All this upper energy comes together into the coming week, organizing a mean upper trough over the eastern Conus, with a bit deeper upper low over the Gulf.
(Today through Monday) Weak ridging is expected to remain over Texas today while a weak upper low remains over Georgia.
Updated at 322 AM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025 - Slightly cooler daytime temperatures are expected through midweek, due to increased cloud cover and scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms each day.
330 AM EDT Sun Jun 29 2025 Bermuda high pressure will remain offshore into the early part of the week.
NWP progs are very aggressive in advecting/lifting a relatively shallow 950-850mb warm front through the area into the Lake Huron basin by the afternoon. Expecting a combination of deeper mixing and an uptick in surface dewpoints to bring very warm conditions, heat indices in the lower 90s, although the relatively shallow thetae return will maintain higher static stability and convective inhibition between 2.
1226 AM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025 The region remains on the western periphery of an upper low over the southeast states to Appalachians, with light northerly flow aloft. GOES East water vapor imagery indicate upper low to our east, with broad convective development over the Ozarks into the Mid South region. Initially, a weakness in the broader upper-level ridge pattern over our region will keep temperatures from becoming too excessive. Expect highs and lows to be near or even a few degrees cooler than normal for late June/early July. A building upper-level ridge over the High Plains by mid week will create a more northwesterly flow regime over the central and eastern CONUS by mid to late week, which might even allow a cold frontal boundary to dip into our area.
GOES-19 nighttime microphysics imagery notes a large mass of high level debris clouds caught between an upper level high centered in the Gulf and an upper level low approaching from the east. Temperatures along the island chain are once again in the lower to mid 80s with dewpoints in the mid 70s. Considering the SAL is poised to keep PoPs on the low side, the main focus in the short term looks to be the wind forecast. A tropical upper tropospheric trough (TUTT) will be upon us by the start of the work week.
A cold front will push into Southwest Lower Michigan from the west on Monday pushing into a warm and humid airmass.
- Independence Day still looks seasonal with highs in the lower 90s and a 20% chance for a shower or storm. With an H8 ridge of theta-E setting up in that vicinity, potentially aggravating the heavy rain/localized flooding potential, we continue our Flood Watch in the Ozarks per collaborative efforts and potential for earlier convection there, repeating over grounds that have received several inches of rainfall recently. After today, our eyes turn to the cold front to our north that drops down and makes its approach Monday.
Ensembles show upper ridging sliding east ahead of the next low pressure system for the midweek. Last Updated: June 29, 2025 at 0845Z Flight Category: VFR Discussion: High pressure across the area will mean mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies.
- A threat for storms is expected mainly tonight, with the highest chances from late evening into the overnight period. Temperatures have cooled off to the lower to mid 70s, and will likely not cool much more as dew points are holding in the lower 70s. Much like yesterday, sunshine and a hot air mass will allow for temperatures to rise to the lower 90s, with dew points of 70-74. We do expect storms to fire along the approaching cold front this afternoon, or a modified position of the front through storm outflow.