Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
In the low levels, broad high pressure over the Southeast and western North Atlantic is producing light to gentle east to southeast surface winds. Meanwhile aloft, a persistent mid- level ridge is producing westerlies. The 12z sounding at KEY indicated decent moisture below 900 mb (with calculated tropospheric integrated precipitable water above the 75th percentile for the date), but a subsidence inversion associated with the aforementioned ridge based right at 900 mb. The forecast calls for continued mostly sunny skies for this afternoon, freshening breezes, and highs in the lower to mid 80s. High pressure over the Southeast will nudge northward this afternoon through Friday, with east to southeast breezes modestly freshening.
Meanwhile, a cold front will be push south across the area this evening and overnight and should clear the I-10 corridor around daybreak Friday. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible along and east of the dryline late this afternoon and evening and along the cold front tonight, as periodic disturbances move through the flow aloft in advance of a developing upper low over the Desert Southwest. Temperatures will be a little cooler than yesterday, with highs this afternoon mainly in the lower 80s.
643 AM EDT Thu Mar 14 2024 A wave of low pressure will ride eastward along a warm front tonight bringing a round of showers to the region. Friday starts a cooling trend with a cold frontal passage.
640 AM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024 (Today and tonight) The upper closed low over southern Nevada early this morning will continue to dig south into northern Baja Cali by early tomorrow morning. As the low pushes south, the associated jet streak will push north of the forecast area. This evening a cold front will push south through the forecast area with north northeast winds picking up around midnight behind the frontal passage and continuing to ramp up through the early morning hours. Temperatures will be slightly cooler tonight with near freezing lows across the far southwest Texas Panhandle and upper 30s to 40s elsewhere.
340 AM PDT Thu Mar 14 2024 Updated Aviation Discussion An upper level ridge will build into the Pacific Northwest through the period. This ridge will bring dry and increasingly warm weather through the period.
Hazardous travel in the High Country is expected late Thursday through late Friday, due to accumulating snowfall. A relatively calm night is expected for the rest of tonight, ahead of the arrival of a closed low, now approaching the Las Vegas area. A 100kt jet on the western side of the low is still moving it southward tonight, some retrograding is also occurring as a rex block forms over the western United States.
634 AM EDT Thu Mar 14 2024 Temperatures will warm well above normal late this week as high pressure shifts offshore. Showers and thunderstorm chances will return Friday afternoon and evening as a cold front approaches.
Low clouds and fog have pushed south through the area into northern Wyoming as a backdoor cold front moves through the area. At the same time, low clouds and patchy fog were advancing south and west over central and eastern areas as a backdoor cold front worked into the region from the northeast. Weak forcing from an upper low over the Great Basin and north to northeast upslope flow as well as instability will continue to produce light to moderate snow into the morning hours over the southern mountains and foothills. The Winter Weather Advisory and Winter Storm Warning remain in effect until 6am MDT, and will make no changes to the highlites at this time. STP Upper level northwesterly flow is expected to gradually develop into upper level ridging, keeping conditions fairly calm through the first half of the week.
Meanwhile, a closed upper low centered over far southern NV is bringing isolated snow showers eastern White Pine County, including brief snow showers in Ely. An embedded disturbance circulating around the low will increase snow showers over southeast Elko County and eastern White Pine County later today. Even though today will be around 5 degrees warmer than yesterday, winds chills from the gusty north winds will be in the mid 20s to upper 30s to make for another chilly spring day. The aforementioned upper low will dive south into far southern California. The low will undercut a high amplitude ridge that will bring dry and warmer conditions over the northern half of Nevada.
208 AM PDT Thu Mar 14 2024 An upper level ridge will build into the Pacific Northwest through the period. This ridge will bring dry and increasingly warm weather through the period.
Regional observations and mesoanalysis data indicate a thoroughly above-freezing airmass (850 mb temperatures 4-6C) in place over the Tri-State area this morning. With relatively warm, above-freezing low-level thermal/wetbulb profiles, widespread cloud cover and little in the way of horizontal thermal advection, low-level airmass modification will predominately be a function of precipitation (e. Given the depth and magnitude of above freezing thermal profiles. where above freezing thermal profiles are shallower and precip chances/amounts are greater.
852 AM EDT Thu Mar 14 2024 Temperatures will warm well above normal late this week as high pressure shifts offshore. Showers and thunderstorm chances will return Friday afternoon and evening as a cold front approaches.
615 AM EDT Thu Mar 14 2024 Above normal temperatures are expected today ahead of an approaching low pressure system and a cold front. Unsettled weather returns tonight into Friday with periods of showers and cooler temperatures which will close the work week and open the weekend. Filtered sun through the high clouds, along with light winds will help temperatures reach well into the 60s today with some 50s in higher terrain.
The upper ridge axis remains west of our forecast area today with a dry northerly flow aloft. The upper ridge will build northward Thursday night into Friday, with the pressure gradient remaining tight along the Cascades as a thermal trough strengthens along the south Oregon coast. With this gusty winds will continue over the exposed areas along the Cascades and the higher terrain along the coastal mountains in southwest Oregon. Also the Chetco Effect could result in warmer afternoon temperatures in Brookings with afternoon temperatures pushing also pushing near 70 degrees Friday.
647 AM EDT Thu Mar 14 2024 Above normal temperatures are expected today ahead of an approaching low pressure system and a cold front. Unsettled weather returns tonight into Friday with periods of showers and cooler temperatures which will close the work week and open the weekend. Filtered sun through the high clouds, along with light winds will help temperatures reach well into the 60s today with some 50s in higher terrain.
Ensembles and Clusters are in good agreement with upper low near Las Vegas dropping south along the Colorado River Valley and into SoCal this afternoon into Friday. Upper level ridge will build over Northern California over the weekend with dry weather and Valley high temperatures in the 70's.
607 AM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024 Today and tonight: Ridging aloft will promote a strong warm, moist advection regime, which will be the primary influence of our weather in the near term. Rain and storm chances will be reinvigorated around midnight, especially along and north of the HWY 82 corridor, as a cold front sags southward.
A ridge of high pressure is amplifying as an omega blocking pattern takes shape. The eastern flanking upper low of the pattern holds a deepening upper low which is settling into the S CA to W AZ region. A developing inverted trough will guide offshore flow to the coast today, and the will aid in ample warmth to be felt today by most.
643 AM EDT Thu Mar 14 2024 (Today through Friday) A strengthening mid level ridge will continue to build into South Florida through today and into Friday as well. At the surface, an area of high pressure centered over the western Atlantic will continue to slowly drift eastward. High temperatures on Thursday and Friday will range from the lower 80s across the east coast metro areas to the mid to upper 80s across interior portions of Southwest Florida.
635 AM EDT Thu Mar 14 2024 High pressure remains centered immediately off the Southeast coast today through Friday maintaining warm temperatures. A cold front approaches from the northwest Friday afternoon and evening bringing a chance of showers.
1141 AM EDT Thu Mar 14 2024 (Today through Friday) A strengthening mid level ridge will continue to build into South Florida through today and into Friday as well. At the surface, an area of high pressure centered over the western Atlantic will continue to slowly drift eastward. High temperatures this afternoon and Friday will range from the lower 80s across the east coast metro areas to the mid to upper 80s across interior portions of Southwest Florida.
Strong to severe thunderstorms and heavy rainfall are expected to occur later tonight into Friday as a slow moving cold front crosses the area.
Overnight lows will be a few degrees below normals, teens and 20s with daytime highs tomorrow about 5 degrees warmer than today.
Temperatures are generally in the lower to mid 80s, with dew points hovering near 70F. High pressure will undulate in the vicinity of the western Atlantic.
156 PM EDT Thu Mar 14 2024 High pressure brings dry conditions through much of today, with a few showers possible in SE Ohio. Cooler this weekend. Some moisture associated with a warm front could graze central Ohio this morning, providing a small chance of some showers. Further east and south, precipitation should hold off until tonight when the main band of showers and thunderstorms associated with a cold front arrives.
A warming trend is in store through the weekend as high pressure builds into the area. This is due to an area of low pressure that is currently spinning over western Arizona and southeastern California at this time. This closed low pressure system, in conjunction with a high pressure system over the Pacific northwest states, has created a blocking pattern over the forecast area. For Friday and Friday night, the upper level low and high pressure systems will not move much and the block will continue.
Expect the low clouds to begin to thin out by late this morning or during the mid afternoon hours, while the patchy fog looks possible until the mid morning hours.
- Temperatures will fall from north to south this afternoon as a cold front races through the area. Overnight lows will fall into the low 30s to low 40s, coldest near the Wisconsin state line.
Dry northeast flow aloft will reside over the area today due to an upper ridge off the coast and a low pressure system over the Southwest U.
(This afternoon through Friday night) Surface analysis shows the cold front in the South Plains this afternoon, set to speed up and move through the area after peak heating. A stratus deck should develop along/behind the front overnight, w/showers developing along the front after 06Z, and increasing through Friday along/behind the front, which by that time will entail all the lowlands.
227 PM EDT Thu Mar 14 2024 (This afternoon through Friday) A potent mid level system is progged to move through the CWA tomorrow, ahead of a surface cold front. Concerned that additional convection could fire in the southern half of the CWA during the mid to late afternoon, ahead of the cold front or on any leftover morning mesoscale boundary.
Current storms will progress east southeastward through the afternoon as a cold front works its way through the region. Cooler air along with breezy northerly winds will be ushered in behind the front tonight with temperature dropping into the 40s behind the front by Friday morning. Cooler, but still near average temperatures for this time of year are expected for tomorrow behind the frontal passage, with gusty northerly winds throughout the day dying off somewhat by sunset.
(This evening through Friday night) 18z WV satellite shows an upper low over S NV with southwesterly flow aloft ahead of this feature over the Panhandles. At the surface, cold front pushed south overnight, leading to cooler temperatures, lighter winds out of the north, and mostly cloudy skies this morning. Main concern in the short term is if any disturbances eject northeastward from the upper low generate enough lift for precip to develop. Given the above, have generally tried to keep PoPs toward the low end of consensus blends outside of 18z- 00z Friday afternoon, when PoPs were boosted above NBM using other short term consensus blends. Finally, given aforementioned moisture and upslope winds, have moved forecast highs Friday toward the cooler side of consensus compared to NBM, which is several degrees warmer than many sources of guidance.
1228 PM EDT Thu Mar 14 2024 (Today through Friday) A strengthening mid level ridge will continue to build into South Florida through today and into Friday as well. At the surface, an area of high pressure centered over the western Atlantic will continue to slowly drift eastward. High temperatures this afternoon and Friday will range from the lower 80s across the east coast metro areas to the mid to upper 80s across interior portions of Southwest Florida.
127 PM EDT Thu Mar 14 2024 Temperatures will warm well above normal late this week as high pressure shifts offshore. Showers and thunderstorm chances will return Friday afternoon and evening as a cold front approaches.
255 PM MDT Thu Mar 14 2024 1) Light to moderate snowfall accumulations will be likely across the lower elevations along and east of the Laramie Range, with the higher totals occurring over the mountains. With temperatures below freezing this may create some hazardous conditions Friday night.
122 PM EDT Thu Mar 14 2024 High pressure remains centered immediately off the Southeast coast today through Friday maintaining warm temperatures. A cold front approaches from the northwest Friday afternoon and evening bringing a chance of showers.
A robust high-pressure system is settling over the area, bringing about generally clear skies, though some residual cloud cover persists in parts of north-central Idaho and northwest Montana.
(Today through Friday) A strengthening mid level ridge will continue to build into South Florida through today and into Friday as well. At the surface, an area of high pressure centered over the western Atlantic will continue to slowly drift eastward. High temperatures this afternoon and Friday will range from the lower 80s across the east coast metro areas to the mid to upper 80s across interior portions of Southwest Florida.
351 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024 - Widespread high or even moderate impact weather not expected through the entire 7 day period, including Fire Weather thanks to periodic weak, dry cold front passages in the northwest flow pattern. - In the far extended, we will be monitoring a potential significant pattern change toward colder temperatures (beginning around 21 or 22 March?) A major mid-tropospheric cyclone continued to spin over the Southwest CONUS with the 500mb low center near Las Vegas, NV. The dominant branch of the westerlies will be rather amplified with deep troughing across the eastern CONUS and ridging across the Northwest.
250 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024 - A modified cold front gradually pushes through the area into this evening and overnight with dry air moving in. Across the CONUS, a broad low amplitude ridge is in place from the Mid Atlantic and southeastern CONUS into the lower MS Valley. A deep trough remains over the southwestern CONUS and forecast to become a cutoff low. Across the forecast area, a modified cold front is very slow to progress through the area with a prefrontal trough just exiting to the southeast in advance of the trailing cold front. Most likely a deck of low level stratus will continue to build within the cooler air especially into this evening and last through part of the overnight or possibly early tomorrow morning.
153 PM EDT Thu Mar 14 2024 After warm and dry conditions through this evening, low pressure will track through the North Country tonight and early Friday bringing rain and modest river rises across central and southern Vermont and the Adirondacks. Overnight, low pressure will track out of the Great Lakes region and moving just south of the Adirondacks/south- central Greens.
1225 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024 (Today and tonight) The upper closed low over southern Nevada early this morning will continue to dig south into northern Baja Cali by early tomorrow morning. As the low pushes south, the associated jet streak will push north of the forecast area. This evening a cold front will push south through the forecast area with north northeast winds picking up around midnight behind the frontal passage and continuing to ramp up through the early morning hours. Temperatures will be slightly cooler tonight with near freezing lows across the far southwest Texas Panhandle and upper 30s to 40s elsewhere.
High pressure in the western Atlantic remains in control across the area which will continue to promote well above normal temperatures through late week and into the upcoming weekend. While temperatures will still be above normal throughout the weekend, the low level flow will become more westerly as the Atlantic ridge axis shifts southward and this will favor a slight decrease in highs for coastal areas compared to values tomorrow given the extra marine influence that is expected over the weekend.
- Cooler temperatures settle in for the weekend. These storms are forming a head of a cold front that has been slowly working its way through the area during the day. The weather pattern calms and cools going into the end of the week as surface ridging progresses into the area.
345 PM EDT Thu Mar 14 2024 High pressure will prevail through tonight.
1211 PM EDT Thu Mar 14 2024 Temperatures will warm well above normal late this week as high pressure shifts offshore. Showers and thunderstorm chances will return Friday afternoon and evening as a cold front approaches.
- High pressure builds in this weekend, aiding dry and mild weather in prevailing over the Cowboy State. High pressure builds in for the weekend and the low that brought snow to parts of the state remains far to the south of WY. This area of high pressure remains in place over the western/central CONUS through much of the upcoming week.
A cold front will track through the forecast area through this evening. As an upper low strengthens over southern California, southwesterly flow aloft out ahead of it will advect mid-to-upper level Pacific moisture over the area and rain will be likely across the entire area by midday. Highest moisture parameters are expected over the far SW TX Panhandle and western South Plains closest to the low center where flow will be the fastest.
An upper ridge will briefly amplify to our east today as a strong closed low meanders over the Baja Peninsula and strengthens. The forecast area will remain on the western periphery of this ridge through the day, with moisture filtering in across the region. Very little change in the pattern is expected overnight, with temperatures falling into the lower to mid 60s.
Low stratus and breezy/windy northerly winds continue over much of the forecast area this afternoon due to cooler air flowing into the region behind a weak cold front this morning. Latest analysis shows an upper trough over the forecast area this afternoon, extending SW to the upper low, currently over southern California. At the surface, a region of high pressure is centered over ern MT/wrn ND extending in a narrow band southward across eastern WY/CO.
- Cooler temperatures settle in for the weekend. Storms are forming along a cold front which is progressing east southeastward now extending from SE of Moberly to Rich Hill. These storms are forming a head of a cold front that has been slowly working its way through the area during the day. The weather pattern calms and cools going into the end of the week as surface ridging progresses into the area.
With all that being said, once the cold front begins to shift south, severe weather chances will begin to wane into the early morning hours Friday.
256 PM EDT Thu Mar 14 2024 A cold front will move across the area late Friday.
850 mb flow currently about 45-55 mph has been promoting nearly equivalent gusts across much of the advisory areas in the higher terrain.
High pressure continues to dominate our sensible weather, and rising heights were sampled at all significant levels across the region. The ridge axis has deviated slightly northward, resulting in a tightened gradient across the Keys. From synopsis, high pressure over the Southeast will continue to nudge northward tonight and Friday, with east to southeast breezes modestly freshening.
The low cloud looks to remain until tomorrow when the low level moisture is replaced by dry westerly surface winds. Fallon and Carter Counties will see the worst of the conditions with temperatures 10-15 degrees above average, RH values as low as 15-20%, and sustained winds in the low 20s mph.
1051 PM EDT Thu Mar 14 2024 Showers and thunderstorms are likely through Friday morning as a series of disturbances ahead of a cold front cross the region.
601 PM EDT Thu Mar 14 2024 High pressure will prevail through tonight.
627 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024 - Widespread high or even moderate impact weather not expected through the entire 7 day period, including Fire Weather thanks to periodic weak, dry cold front passages in the northwest flow pattern. - In the far extended, we will be monitoring a potential significant pattern change toward colder temperatures (beginning around 21 or 22 March?) A major mid-tropospheric cyclone continued to spin over the Southwest CONUS with the 500mb low center near Las Vegas, NV. The dominant branch of the westerlies will be rather amplified with deep troughing across the eastern CONUS and ridging across the Northwest.
743 PM MDT Thu Mar 14 2024 1) Light to moderate snowfall accumulations will be likely across the lower elevations along and east of the Laramie Range, with the higher totals occurring over the mountains. With temperatures below freezing this may create some hazardous conditions Friday night.
601 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024 - A modified cold front gradually pushes through the area into this evening and overnight with dry air moving in. Across the CONUS, a broad low amplitude ridge is in place from the Mid Atlantic and southeastern CONUS into the lower MS Valley. A deep trough remains over the southwestern CONUS and forecast to become a cutoff low. Across the forecast area, a modified cold front is very slow to progress through the area with a prefrontal trough just exiting to the southeast in advance of the trailing cold front. Most likely a deck of low level stratus will continue to build within the cooler air especially into this evening and last through part of the overnight or possibly early tomorrow morning.
Upper level ridging will replace the departing low pressure system for dry conditions and moderating temperatures heading into the weekend. Things really slow down this evening as diurnal heating wanes and the responsible trough and associated cold pool move off to the east.
853 PM EDT Thu Mar 14 2024 High pressure will prevail through tonight.
547 PM MDT Thu Mar 14 2024 1) Light to moderate snowfall accumulations will be likely across the lower elevations along and east of the Laramie Range, with the higher totals occurring over the mountains. With temperatures below freezing this may create some hazardous conditions Friday night.
Hazardous travel conditions are expected in the high country tonight through Friday. The increasing moisture combined with the broad synoptic lift ahead of the upper level low will heighten the risk for heavy high elevation snowfall this evening. Recent model guidance tracks the low pressure center a little further southwest than previously anticipated. Beginning tomorrow morning, however, there is general agreement that the low will bounce back to the northeast a bit. In the higher elevations of eastern Arizona, gusty winds will combine with snowfall to reduce visibility and cause even nastier conditions. Impacts for any given area will depend on the wobble of the low as well.