Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
(This afternoon through Saturday night) WV imagery shows the upper trough has retreated to southern Nevada over the past 24 hours, maintaining southwest flow aloft over West Texas and Southeast New Mexico. Closer to home, a good swath of stratus is backed up against the higher terrain, keeping a lid on afternoon highs. Convection is expected to be ongoing over the lower Trans Pecos as surface winds veer to upslope easterly.
1101 AM EDT Fri May 10 2024 High pressure builds across the region through Saturday night.
A weak cold front will push through the state overnight with light NW winds and drier conditions in its wake.
259 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024 Forecast discussion for routine afternoon forecast issuance - A quick moving cold front will bring showers and a few storms to the region late this afternoon into this evening.
321 PM MDT Fri May 10 2024 - Trending warmer through the weekend, but remaining unsettled with daily chances for showers and storms.
Rather, the more noticeable affect from the front will be the lower humidity values we will experience over the next couple of days.
656 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024 Updated aviation portion for 00Z TAF issuance - A quick moving cold front will bring showers and a few storms to the region late this afternoon into this evening.
507 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024 (This afternoon through Saturday night) WV imagery shows the upper trough has retreated to southern Nevada over the past 24 hours, maintaining southwest flow aloft over West Texas and Southeast New Mexico. Closer to home, a good swath of stratus is backed up against the higher terrain, keeping a lid on afternoon highs. Convection is expected to be ongoing over the lower Trans Pecos as surface winds veer to upslope easterly.
814 PM EDT Fri May 10 2024 A weak ridge of high pressure will bring clear or clearing sky cover over the region today and most of tonight. A low pressure center in northern Michigan will lay a cold front across the Ohio Valley, which will pass east relatively quickly on Saturday. The brief nature of this round of weather had me only put a slight chance of thunder in where the higher likelihood of precipitation was found.
Temperatures along the Island Chain are in the lower 80s with dew points in the lower to mid 70s. High pressure that dominated the weather across the Keys the last few days has loosened its grip across the region as a frontal boundary associated with a developing low pressure off the North Carolina coast sags slowly southward along the Florida Peninsula.
631 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024 (Rest of today through Saturday) High pressure centered out west is producing a cool, north flow across Middle Tennessee today, which comes as a welcome reprieve coming off this week's heavy rain and severe storms. An upper trough will finally come through early this afternoon and we can expect some additional cloudiness as a result, and maybe also a light shower or two along the Upper Plateau.
(This afternoon through Saturday) A cold front is presently making its way SE thru the area. Cooler and noticeably drier conditions are on tap for Saturday.
High pressure will bring light winds and mainly clear skies through the night.
941 PM EDT Fri May 10 2024 Scattered showers and thunderstorms will exit the area this evening with high pressure along with dry air moving in for the weekend.
(Rest of tonight) Tranquil weather across the Tennessee Valley tonight as high pressure settles into the region. Northerly flow has advected in a cooler and drier air mass -- and with the clear conditions forecast it will be a good night for radiational cooling. The end result will be a very comfortable night with low humidity as lows drop back into the low to mid 50s.
642 PM EDT Fri May 10 2024 - Showers and thunderstorms tonight along a cold front.
535 PM MDT Fri May 10 2024 Upper level ridging will result in above average temperatures across the region this weekend. Weak disturbances moving through the ridge will result in isolated showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms in the afternoon this weekend, mainly near terrain and across North-central Montana.
714 PM EDT Fri May 10 2024 Scattered showers and thunderstorms will exit the area this evening with high pressure along with dry air moving in for the weekend.
238 PM PDT Fri May 10 2024 Temperatures through the weekend warm to the highest values of the season so far, with highs reaching the 80s and a few areas in the lower 90s.
1024 PM EDT Fri May 10 2024 A weak ridge of high pressure will bring clear or clearing sky cover over the region today and most of tonight. A low pressure center in northern Michigan will lay a cold front across the Ohio Valley, which will pass east relatively quickly on Saturday.
907 PM EDT Fri May 10 2024 High pressure builds across the region through Saturday night.
An approaching cold front, stretched across the Florida Panhandle, is working its way south. Temperatures by morning look to start out in the low to mid 70s. SW winds become westerly overnight as a cold front approaches and crosses the local waters through daybreak Saturday.
540 PM MDT Fri May 10 2024 - Trending warmer through the weekend, but remaining unsettled with daily chances for showers and storms.
636 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024 (Tonight through Saturday night) A weak cold front looks to stall over the area today, providing slightly cooler temperatures and slight rain chances through the short term period. Generally light to moderate easterly to northeasterly winds will continue to advect warm, moist air to the region, although the more northerly component will keep temperatures slightly cooler than we have seen the past couple of days.
433 PM PDT Fri May 10 2024 Temperatures through the weekend warm to the highest values of the season so far, with highs reaching the 80s and a few areas in the lower 90s.
613 PM EDT Fri May 10 2024 High pressure builds across the region through Saturday night.
though a band of cumulus clouds around 10kft were pushing south/southeast along a weak trof axis trailing a low pressure system currently over the Great Lakes region. (Saturday through Friday) A brief warm up expected on Saturday as upper ridge shifts over the southern Plains ahead of upper low moving through the Four Corners region.
Dry high pressure will keep most areas dry through the weekend, with mild temperatures.
926 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024 A 1016 mb ridge of high pressure stretches from the Ohio Valley back through the Lower Mississippi Valley and Southern Plains this evening.
826 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024 (This evening through Saturday) The cold front has finally moved south of our area, with drier air moving in from the northwest. As cooler and drier air continues to advect southward, temperatures should be allowed to dip down into the 50s areawide, with a few upper 40s not out of the question across the far northeast Alabama valleys.
An upper ridge building in from the west will bring clear skies, light winds, and much warmer temperatures as highs on Saturday will reach or exceed 80F in the lower valleys.
An upper low will slowly shift from the Great Basin eastward past the central-southern Rockies through this weekend. The exception will be tomorrow as the upper low is crossing the area to the north, which should produce sustained winds of 15 to 20 mph. Then a southern stream trough should cross southern Arizona through the middle of the week.
- Warmer and mainly dry conditions on Saturday will make for excellent conditions for outdoor activities.
1223 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024 (Tonight through Saturday night) A weak cold front looks to stall over the area today, providing slightly cooler temperatures and slight rain chances through the short term period. Generally light to moderate easterly to northeasterly winds will continue to advect warm, moist air to the region, although the more northerly component will keep temperatures slightly cooler than we have seen the past couple of days.
245 AM EDT Sat May 11 2024 A cold front will pass through the region today bringing another round of showers during the afternoon and evening.
As weak upper level ridging arrives from the west tomorrow, winds aloft become westerly with an increase in high clouds. Highs will be a couple of degrees warmer, in the upper 70s to lower 80s.
(Saturday through Sunday) Quiet weather should remain in place for most of this short-term, as upper-level ridging remains overhead. This will allow highs today to remain in the low to mid-80s, and lows tonight to range in the low to mid-60s.
(This afternoon through Saturday) A cold front is presently making its way SE thru the area. Cooler and noticeably drier conditions are on tap for Saturday. Slight warmer lows are forecast for Sunday morning, but still near to slightly below normal.
152 AM EDT Sat May 11 2024 - Showers and thunderstorms tonight along a cold front.
Those areas that get rain will of course be cooler, but still highs in the 60s and 70s will be nice for the middle of May.
(Today through Sunday Night) Dry conditions are expected across the state today as H500 NW flow will remain in place atop sfc ridging. Changes are expected on Sunday as the flow aloft will shift out of the SW ahead of a mid-level cyclone moving east across the Central/Southern Plains. At the sfc, ridging will begin to shift eastward which will allow low level flow will out of the S with dewpoints on the rise.
A cutoff upper low then starts inching into the area late Saturday night, bringing us a chance for spotty showers and perhaps a thunderstorm or two by Sunday morning. Off and on showers and thunderstorms continue through Sunday, but the overall consensus is that the highest coverage will favor southern portions of the forecast area.
Winds will become light overnight then shift to the south tomorrow as lee troughing develops across eastern Colorado. An upper level low will start to move out of the Four Corners region tomorrow and eject a weak disturbance across the High Plains. Highs tomorrow look to range from the low 70s across far western Kansas where clouds may limit heating to low 80s across south central Kansas.
Synoptically-speaking, a system will traverse southern Canada this weekend and bring a warm front through later today.
151 AM MDT Sat May 11 2024 -Warmer and continued dry today.
(Saturday through Sunday night) The cold front will have essentially cleared the region by the start of Saturday, with weak high pressure building in throughout the day. Broad high pressure moves more overhead on Saturday Night and through Sunday, which will persist fair weather and light winds to end the weekend with just some high clouds starting to fill in overhead.
High pressure at the surface and ridging aloft to our west are providing mostly clear skies, though some mid to upper cloud deck has begun to spread in from the southwest. Mid afternoon surface analysis had the cold front nearly along the Gulf coast with a >1020mb centered over the northern Plains. This increase in cloud cover and rain will hold afternoon highs slightly cooler than normal in the 70s while the remainder of the CWA tops out near normal.
(Today through Sunday) What was once a vigorous cold front being propelled by an deamplifying trough over the eastern United States will weaken as it moves south across the peninsula of Florida today. Even with some moisture pooling along the boundary as it enters south central Florida this morning and settles over southern Florida for the rest of the weekend, shower and thunderstorm chances will remain fairly restrained due to some presence of deeper layered drier air and the lack of support aloft for the cold front.
Dry and warmer on Sunday as a ridge of high pressure begins to build in from the west.
Rain showers are then likely to spread in from west to east overnight and continue into Saturday as low pressure crosses the region.
Strong northwest flow aloft across the Northern Plains with a clipper/S/WV embedded trough moving southeast across the Upper Midwest. Along with this, temperatures will trend slightly cooler with and in the wake of this wave, but then should rebound some with upper level ridging favored west. How much we warm and also precipitation chances remain uncertain as the ridge will be just to our west and much will depend how far east the transition zone moves.
1148 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024 A 1016 mb ridge of high pressure stretches from the Ohio Valley back through the Lower Mississippi Valley and Southern Plains this evening.
A cold front with this wave was being pulled south into the area. Two main things of interest are the chances for showers and thunderstorms this evening and how fast do clouds clear out after the cold front. Cold front timing and shower/storm timing have been rather consistent. Period will start out with short-lived ridging as a SW wave pulls warmer air into the area for Sunday. Temperatures into the low 80s are currently forecast.
The rain and frontal boundary will be across the southern part of the peninsula later today, while drier air and high pressure filters into N FL. The high pressure center quickly moves into the W Atlantic Sunday with a warm and dry Mother's Day expected.
(Today and tonight) Cold front stretches this morning from the Florida panhandle to southern Georgia with dewpoints falling through the 60s to upper 50s north of the front with dewpoints remaining in the lower 70s south of this feature in the eastern Big Bend.
Surface analysis shows high pressure over the distant central Atlantic, with a weak ridge extending westward through the Straits of Florida, and a frontal boundary draped across northern Florida and the NW Gulf of Mexico. The mid level ridge which has dominated our weather regime for the past several days has been pushed SW to the Bay of Campeche, although a low level ridge axis persists across the southern Gulf and into the Straits. The 00Z Key West sounding remained dry and stable, with low inversions based near 1000 and 3500 feet, very dry air throughout the lower to mid levels, and PW of only 1.
High pressure will bring light winds and mainly clear skies through the night. (Rest of today through Saturday) High pressure centered out west is producing a cool, north flow across Middle Tennessee today, which comes as a welcome reprieve coming off this week's heavy rain and severe storms. An upper trough will finally come through early this afternoon and we can expect some additional cloudiness as a result, and maybe also a light shower or two along the Upper Plateau.
351 AM EDT Sat May 11 2024 Upper level troughing will remain over Pennsylvania this weekend.
926 PM PDT Fri May 10 2024 Temperatures through the weekend warm to the highest values of the season so far, with highs reaching the 80s and a few areas in the lower 90s.
This upper-level trough will approach Texas this morning and eject multiple mid-level impulses over the region through the day.
(Today and tonight) Increasing southeasterly surface flow bringing in Gulf moisture combined with a relatively deep upper trough will lead to widespread showers across the forecast area today.
This front is progged to retreat north as a warm front during the period, while a series of weak mid-level disturbances ride overhead within a west-southwest to east-northeast 500 mb flow. Meanwhile, warming temperatures, featuring slightly above normal to above normal daytime highs and overnight lows, will occur as the warm front sweeps north through Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley.
(Today and tonight) Increasing clouds should spread northeastward across the FA today as the closed upper low pressure system approaches from the west. Arrival of precipitation has trended a bit later with the slow forward progression of the upper trough. Mostly rain showers should begin to overspread western north Texas by late afternoon as the upper low reaches the four corners region.
1152 PM EDT Fri May 10 2024 - Cooler temperatures (50s to low 60s) hold through Saturday before returning to at or above normal Sunday. - Shower and thunderstorm chances throughout much of Saturday with the passage of a compact low pressure system.
430 AM EDT Sat May 11 2024 - Brief showers ending early today - Cool today, warmer and dry Sunday.
Another trough will swing southeast through the Midwest/eastern Great Lakes region today, and will be close enough that some light rain will be possible for eastern zones. Upper level ridging will move in Sunday so highs should get to be around 80 under mostly sunny skies.
The highest level of geomagnetic storm and the first since Halloween of 2003. Winds will decrease tonight once the trough vacates southeastward. of Michigan down to northern Iowa which is a frontal boundary associated with the upper-level trough. On Sunday another clipper system will track across Canada, and southwest winds ahead of a weak cold front will bring warmer temperatures across the region. This cold front will pass through dry, but there is a small chance (10 to 20%) for a light rain shower for areas near Lake Mille Lacs MN to Chippewa Falls WI.
316 AM EDT Sat May 11 2024 Low pressure tracking from Michigan into western New York State is expected to bring showers and thunderstorms to the forecast area into tonight.
Today: Seasonably warm with plenty of sunshine and highs in the low/mid 70s. Sunday: Low pressure passing near Lake Superior will pull warm and more moist air northward into the local area with forecast highs into the low to mid 80s. Deep layer shear is also on the low side at 20-30 kts, which will limit storm organization.
though a band of cumulus clouds around 10kft were pushing south/southeast along a weak trof axis trailing a low pressure system currently over the Great Lakes region.
914 PM MDT Fri May 10 2024 - Trending warmer through the weekend, but remaining unsettled with daily chances for showers and storms.
1248 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024 (This evening through Saturday) The cold front has finally moved south of our area, with drier air moving in from the northwest. As cooler and drier air continues to advect southward, temperatures should be allowed to dip down into the 50s areawide, with a few upper 40s not out of the question across the far northeast Alabama valleys.
As mid-level ridge builds eastward, isentropic ascent should decrease & clouds should thin. High temps will be seasonable in the low-mid 80s with decreased humidity. Seasonable lows, in the low 60s southeast of the Natchez Trace corridor to mid 60s to the northwest, are expected.
An upper low positioned over extreme northwest Arizona this morning shift east today, then east of the Southern Rockies Sunday. The trough axis along the southern periphery of this feature will tighten gradients today, resulting in locally breezy conditions today.
1215 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024 (Rest of tonight) Tranquil weather across the Tennessee Valley tonight as high pressure settles into the region. Northerly flow has advected in a cooler and drier air mass -- and with the clear conditions forecast it will be a good night for radiational cooling. The end result will be a very comfortable night with low humidity as lows drop back into the low to mid 50s. (Saturday through Sunday) Not too much to write about this weekend as weak ridging aloft builds in this weekend with high pressure in place at the surface.
151 AM EDT Sat May 11 2024 A weak ridge of high pressure will bring clear or clearing sky cover over the region today and most of tonight. A low pressure center in northern Michigan will lay a cold front across the Ohio Valley, which will pass east relatively quickly on Saturday. On Sunday morning, an upper low will be moving eastward through Pennsylvania and New York, with height rises occurring over the Ohio Valley. Highs on Sunday will be in the lower 70s.
1216 AM EDT Sat May 11 2024 High pressure builds across the region through Saturday night.
333 AM EDT Sat May 11 2024 High pressure builds across the region through Saturday night.
(Today through Sunday) The upper ridging is now starting to drop into the NW CONUS and forcing the upper troughing over the west to begin moving SE and will eventually orient itself more meridionally. The flow over our area has become more zonal and as the upper trough gets a bit closer and orients N-S, it will cause a strong divergent area as it couples with the zonal flow to the south of it. The highest chances of rain should be over SW Miss and adjacent parishes of LA during the day.
(Today) High pressure persists today with the upper level ridge axis shifting overhead this afternoon & evening.
614 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024 (Saturday through Sunday) Quiet weather should remain in place for most of this short-term, as upper-level ridging remains overhead. This will allow highs today to remain in the low to mid-80s, and lows tonight to range in the low to mid-60s.
403 AM MDT Sat May 11 2024 - Trending warmer through the weekend, but remaining unsettled with daily chances for showers and storms.
Look for highs in the low 80s across much of the area; there is a 30% chance to reach 85 degrees in the northern Red River Valley.
- Warmer tomorrow with a better chance of showers and thunderstorms, but most places should be dry most of the day. The only small fly in the ointment is the small chance (less than 1 in 5) of a stray shower or thunderstorm over the mountains, courtesy of a bit of moisture and a weak upslope flow around an upper level low over Colorado. The best moisture and forcing is found from roughly the Bighorn Range and east, and these are where the higher POPs (1 in 3) are found versus further west, where the chances are 1 in 4 at best. The ridge will be pushed east and replaced by an approaching Pacific trough and cold front.
- Clouds, and the chance for showers and thunderstorms will increase across the area overnight tonight as an upper level low approaches the area from the intermountain west.
A Pacific ridge of high pressure will continue to bring warm and dry conditions through today with cooler temperatures at the coast; however, still expected to be above average.
622 AM EDT Sat May 11 2024 - Brief showers ending early today - Cool today, warmer and dry Sunday.
615 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024 (Today) High pressure persists today with the upper level ridge axis shifting overhead this afternoon & evening.
Expect increasing clouds on Sunday with highs in the lower 80s.
551 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024 (Today and tonight) Increasing clouds should spread northeastward across the FA today as the closed upper low pressure system approaches from the west. Arrival of precipitation has trended a bit later with the slow forward progression of the upper trough. Mostly rain showers should begin to overspread western north Texas by late afternoon as the upper low reaches the four corners region.
High pressure will remain over western Montana and north central Idaho through Sunday, bringing warm and dry conditions to the region.
311 AM MDT Sat May 11 2024 Warmer and mainly dry conditions can be expected across the area today with downslope flow in place. With downslope flow in place, temperatures will warm into the 70s and approach the lower 80s for a few locations today. Highs in the lower to middle 70s can be expected.
706 AM EDT Sat May 11 2024 (Today through Sunday) What was once a vigorous cold front being propelled by an deamplifying trough over the eastern United States will weaken as it moves south across the peninsula of Florida today. Even with some moisture pooling along the boundary as it enters south central Florida this morning and settles over southern Florida for the rest of the weekend, shower and thunderstorm chances will remain fairly restrained due to some presence of deeper layered drier air and the lack of support aloft for the cold front.
520 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024 (Today through Sunday Night) Dry conditions are expected across the state today as H500 NW flow will remain in place atop sfc ridging. Changes are expected on Sunday as the flow aloft will shift out of the SW ahead of a mid-level cyclone moving east across the Central/Southern Plains. At the sfc, ridging will begin to shift eastward which will allow low level flow will out of the S with dewpoints on the rise.
as weak low pressure and its associated cold front will push through the region this afternoon and tonight with numerous showers and possible thunderstorms.