Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Most of the CAMs break out convection over our area as the cold front moves down into eastern ND later this evening, mainly 00Z and after. A slow moving cold front continues to move into northeastern North Dakota this morning.
/Issued 359 AM MDT Tue Jul 22 2025/ - Meteorological Overview: The most significant weather impacts are on the decrease for our CWA, as an upper level trof begins to pull away into Canada. This exiting trof will allow for some scattered showers/thunderstorms to affect the CWA today. Do expect some morning fog today, along with low cloud ceilings because of all of the low level moisture. - Forecast Confidence & Scenarios: The overall confidence in showers/thunderstorms is on the lower side now, as the main upper level energy has moved to our east.
300 PM EDT Tue Jul 22 2025 Canadian high pressure will maintain dry conditions with lower humidity through the middle of the week. Otherwise, Canadian high pressure centered over NY to southern New England maintains dry conditions across our area. Light onshore flow may bring in some low clouds east of the Blue Ridge later tonight, with some patchy fog possible mainly west of I-95.
Storms should initiate along the boundary of drier air and along the higher terrain.
203 PM EDT Tue Jul 22 2025 A weak cold front, eventhough east and south of the area, will be in close enough proximity for increased chance of showers and thunderstorms through this evening.
130 PM EDT Tue Jul 22 2025 High pressure will settle into the area from the northeast through Wednesday.
Most of this drier air looks to be confined to the lower and mid levels, and the moisture that the radiosonde did detect may have just been from going through the aforementioned cumulus and cirrus clouds. THe inherited chance PoPs (30%) may be a little on the higher end for this morning and afternoon, but we are going to maintain it due to the anticipated activity over the peninsula later this afternoon. Without a strong synoptic signal in the lower levels, outflow boundaries extending from thunderstorms over the mainland may be enough to get some activity going during the late afternoon or early evening hours. From synopsis, Weak Atlantic ridging remains in place across the Keys. The Atlantic ridging over the Atlantic will strengthen and shift westward for mid to late week resulting in freshening east to southeast breezes.
1209 PM CDT Tue Jul 22 2025 The upper trough over Central Texas is overproducing this morning with a small area of showers and thunderstorms moving across the Hill Country. (Today through Wednesday) The upper tropospheric trough of the last few days continues to move away north of our area. The Subtropical Ridge builds over most of our area today through Wednesday. Subsidence under the Ridge along with a drying airmass with PWs below seasonal averages keeps rain chances out of the forecast for most areas.
Trough will continue to slide east today with morning cloudiness giving way to afternoon sun and chances of storms again over the Cascades with seasonably warm high temperatures ranging from mid 60s on the coast to low 80s inland. Broad surface ridging centered well offshore and lower pressure east of the Cascades will remain in place into midweek with diurnally driven increases in onshore flow.
237 PM EDT Tue Jul 22 2025 High pressure will crest over the area tonight then slide south of the region on Wednesday.
- Slightly cooler with scattered storms Wed/Thu. Activity gradually wanes by late evening, though some lighter showers may linger past midnight over the higher terrain.
1208 PM EDT Tue Jul 22 2025 Dry and less humid weather will continue today under high pressure.
The upper level ridge is expected to be the dominant pattern for much of the continental U.
Well, it's been another day with cloud cover keeping temperatures a bit cooler than expected in southeast NE and southwest IA as a pair of MCVs moved through. Heading into tonight, a cold front currently stretched from northeast to southwest across SD will start to creep into western and north-central NE with storm development expected in its vicinity. Therefore, think we should have a fair amount of sunshine across southeast NE and southwest IA through at least early afternoon Wednesday which should allow temperatures to get up into the mid 90s with dewpoints in the lower to mid 70s. With the heat and humidity will come plenty of instability and with the incoming cold front, we should have enough in place for some strong to severe storms once the front pushes into northeast NE.
- Cooler high temperatures are expected tomorrow, returning to near or slightly above normal later in the week and through the weekend.
As of 19z, much of this activity has remained fairly benign as subsidence from the mid/upper ridge serves to suppress convection.
245 PM EDT Tue Jul 22 2025 (This afternoon through Wednesday) Key Messages: - A slight reprieve from the higher heat and humidity (Wednesday). An interesting pattern exists across the region this afternoon with a weak area of low pressure centered just off the GA/SC coast (near Savannah).
306 PM CDT Tue Jul 22 2025 - There is a Slight Risk, level 2 of 5, for severe storms through the overnight hours, with the highest over northern SD and west central MN. The higher shear values remain over northwestern SD into ND, but are still around 30kt. Confidence in specifics have been difficult, so we will rely on CAMs but also persistence until the trough exits to our southeast late morning/early afternoon Wednesday. Much cooler air will settle in for Wednesday, with highs in the mid 70s to near 80. There is some uncertainly for our southern counties, which may stay a bit warmer if the boundary slows down.
227 PM MDT Tue Jul 22 2025 KEY MESSAGES: - Cooler temperatures and showers are expected to continue through Wednesday. WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: The deep upper trough, which has been anchored over the northwest since the weekend, will weaken as it slowly pushes eastward across the northern Plains through Wednesday. The mid level cool temperatures associated with this approaching trough (850mb temps falling to around 9c to 12c) will help maintain cooler afternoon temps across northeast Montana through Wednesday. Moisture and instability in place across the state in advance of the upper trough, will help maintain showers and some thunderstorms tonight through Wednesday.
(Rest of Today and Tonight) Mostly sunny conditions across the region this morning, with a mid/upper-level subtropical ridge centered over the Mid South region being the main weather influence here in the Tennessee Valley. Highs will again reach the low to mid 90s, and combined with dewpoints in the mid 70s, will create heat index values in the 100-109 degree range, with locations along and west of I-65 largely above 105 degrees. Despite subsidence from this ridge, a couple of boundaries may serve as a focus for some diurnally driven storms later this afternoon. The second feature is a bit further to the northeast across eastern Tennessee/western North Carolina/Georgia and serving as a "backdoor" cold front as it slides southwest.
The stationary front is located to the southwest of the region, which leaves the lower Ohio Valley under continued easterly flow through most of Wednesday. This will keep dew points in the low-to- mid 70s, and therefore more comfortable conditions. Low temperatures are expected to be in the low 70s in the southwestern areas and mid 60s in the northeast. Ridging will continue to build and shift east over the region, which will increase heights and temperatures into the low-to-mid 90s. By the end of the day, winds will veer to the southeast as high pressure shifts off to the east and dew points will increase a few points.
1206 PM CDT Tue Jul 22 2025 (Rest of Today and Tonight) Mostly sunny conditions across the region this morning, with a mid/upper-level subtropical ridge centered over the Mid South region being the main weather influence here in the Tennessee Valley. Highs will again reach the low to mid 90s, and combined with dewpoints in the mid 70s, will create heat index values in the 100-109 degree range, with locations along and west of I-65 largely above 105 degrees. Despite subsidence from this ridge, a couple of boundaries may serve as a focus for some diurnally driven storms later this afternoon. The second feature is a bit further to the northeast across eastern Tennessee/western North Carolina/Georgia and serving as a "backdoor" cold front as it slides southwest.
Deep South Texas will remain under the influence of ridging aloft through the latter half of the week, resulting in rain-free conditions and seasonably hot temperatures. At this time, there are still discrepancies among deterministic and ensemble guidance on the where the highest moisture content will reside and track of the mid level feature along the Texas Coast.
(This evening through Wednesday) Upper level low continues to spin across West Central Texas this afternoon.
pdf A trough of low pressure will extend across the area this afternoon and evening. A weak low will develop in this trough and move southwest across area and into the northeastern Gulf overnight. This troughing will provide a focus mechanism for mainly diurnal showers and thunderstorms into this evening. Due to the trough, coverage of convection will be greater than normal.
242 PM CDT Tue Jul 22 2025 On the southern periphery of a mid to upper level ridge positioned from the Mid South to off the Mid-Atlantic coast, an inverted upper level trough pivots westward across the northern Gulf mid to late week.
150 PM EDT Tue Jul 22 2025 High pressure will settle into the area from the northeast through Wednesday.
223 PM EDT Tue Jul 22 2025 High pressure is ridging aloft over the south-central U. this afternoon, while at the surface, the ridge axis extends over south Florida as a weak trough moves into northern Florida.
Wednesday forecast will be different as a cold front drops through the area during the afternoon. associated with the warm front. The cold front should bring in drier dewpoints/humidity, but that will likely not occur until the evening.
225 PM MDT Tue Jul 22 2025 KEY MESSAGES: - Widespread showers and thunderstorms today, some moderate to heavy north of I-90 - Warming and drying trend Wednesday onward An anomalously moist atmosphere (150% of normal) combined with general troughing has allowed for showers with a few embedded thunderstorms to form today.
Given the persistent cloud coverage across much of Central Texas, temperatures will likely remain in the low to mid 90s. The influence of the large scale upper ridging to our east will continue to keep our area rain-free through Wednesday night.
(This afternoon through Wednesday) Key Messages: - A slight reprieve from the higher heat and humidity (Wednesday). An interesting pattern exists across the region this afternoon with a weak area of low pressure centered just off the GA/SC coast (near Savannah).
Have tweaked rain chances for the rest of tonight and kept the highest PoPs offshore over the eastern gulf, otherwise remainder of forecast looks ok at this time. High pressure is ridging aloft over the south-central U. this afternoon, while at the surface, the ridge axis extends over south Florida as a weak trough moves into northern Florida.
645 PM CDT Tue Jul 22 2025 - There is a Slight Risk, level 2 of 5, for severe storms through the overnight hours, with the highest over northern SD and west central MN. The higher shear values remain over northwestern SD into ND, but are still around 30kt. Confidence in specifics have been difficult, so we will rely on CAMs but also persistence until the trough exits to our southeast late morning/early afternoon Wednesday. Much cooler air will settle in for Wednesday, with highs in the mid 70s to near 80. There is some uncertainly for our southern counties, which may stay a bit warmer if the boundary slows down.
- A warmer, drier airmass gradually moves in for the latter half of the week. Low pressure coming ashore out west will send a series of height falls, thereby breaking down the persistent high pressure parked across much of the country.
646 PM CDT Tue Jul 22 2025 On the southern periphery of a mid to upper level ridge positioned from the Mid South to off the Mid-Atlantic coast, an inverted upper level trough pivots westward across the northern Gulf mid to late week.
212 PM PDT Tue Jul 22 2025 * Breezy southerly winds and cooler than normal temperatures are on tap for the region today. These cooler than normal temperatures will continue into the weekend.
754 PM EDT Tue Jul 22 2025 A weak cold front, eventhough east and south of the area, will be in close enough proximity for increased chance of showers and thunderstorms through this evening.
615 PM CDT Tue Jul 22 2025 Deep South Texas will remain under the influence of ridging aloft through the latter half of the week, resulting in rain-free conditions and seasonably hot temperatures. At this time, there are still discrepancies among deterministic and ensemble guidance on the where the highest moisture content will reside and track of the mid level feature along the Texas Coast.
651 PM EDT Tue Jul 22 2025 High pressure will crest over the area tonight then slide south of the region on Wednesday.
208 PM PDT Tue Jul 22 2025 Mid level trough of low pressure will continue to exit east of the area tonight. High pressure will nose into the area Wednesday with a brief warming trend.
Scattered showers and isolated non-severe thunderstorms (but with heavy rain) formed this afternoon and evening in Owyhee County near the remains of yesterday's cold front.
The combination of troughing over the Atlantic Coast and an upper level low over the Bahamas has resulted in a surface through mid level col near the Keys. In response, a surface Atlantic ridge will advance westward into South Florida, resulting in breezes becoming a prevailing light southeasterly. In addition, deep layered moisture is expected to increase, as is CAPE, as lower level troughing pushes into the southern portion of the Florida Peninsula. Outside of rain cooling effects, overnight lows will be in the lower 80s with dewpoints remaining in the mid 70s. Troughing aligned over northern Florida and the southeast has resulted in a split ridge and light and variable breezes across Keys waters. The troughing will shift westward further into the Gulf overnight, allowing the Atlantic ridge to encroach westward into Florida.
244 PM PDT Tue Jul 22 2025 * Breezy southerly winds and cooler than normal temperatures are on tap for the region today. These cooler than normal temperatures will continue into the weekend.
High pressure centered in the Gulf Coast area extends a mid- level ridge northward into western Ontario. As the stationary front slowly drops southeastward Wednesday morning, the higher chances of thunderstorms bringing heavy rainfall increase over northwest Wisconsin. As the stationary front moves out of the region Thursday and the highly anomalous (99th percentile) precipitable water values of 2 to 2. Have held off on any kind of heat headlines at this point due to sub-criteria, but any clearing tomorrow morning leading to warmer than forecast conditions will have to be monitored.
- The highest precipitation chances (20-40%) over the next seven days are Thursday night northwest of a Pittsburg, KS to Warsaw, MO line. The upper-level ridge axis was centered over the Mississippi Valley early this morning, with a diffuse frontal boundary draped down eastern Missouri. This impulse looks to help initiate convection during the afternoon ahead of a surface cold front stretching from the Great Lakes region southwest into the Plains. Currently, the NBM keeps the highest PoPs (20-40%) northwest of a Pittsburg, KS to Warsaw, MO line, but global models (and even many hi-res models) often struggle with handling overnight/decaying storm systems and kill them off too soon, so it's entirely possible we see convection linger or survive in our area longer than what's currently in the forecast.
Upper air analysis shows a nearly stationary trough across the northern Rockies, bringing persistent SW flow aloft. Surface analysis shows a cold front/weak low across the Black Hills and along the Cheyenne River valley. For Wednesday, cooler temperatures are expected, with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s. Warmer temps will work back in by Thursday, with highs in the mid to upper 80s.
The upper level high will reorient east-west late this week, which will allow a frontal boundary to settle southward to the general vicinity of the I-80 corridor.
The intense summer heat marches on as the persistent upper-level ridge remains anchored across the Central Gulf coast northward into the Mid-South and TN Valley.
We'll see increased rain and thunderstorm chances across the eastern and southern portions of Central AL as an inverted trough moves east to west along the northern Gulf Coast through at least Thursday.
1006 PM PDT Tue Jul 22 2025 * Breezy southerly winds and cooler than normal temperatures are on tap for the region today. These cooler than normal temperatures will continue into the weekend.
238 AM MDT Wed Jul 23 2025 - Storms will initiate along a cold front this afternoon. Cold front will sag into the forecast area today and be the focus for afternoon convective initiation. Wednesday forecast will be different as a cold front drops through the area during the afternoon. associated with the warm front. The cold front should bring in drier dewpoints/humidity, but that will likely not occur until the evening.
1217 AM CDT Wed Jul 23 2025 - There is a Slight Risk, level 2 of 5, for severe storms through the overnight hours, with the highest over northern SD and west central MN. The higher shear values remain over northwestern SD into ND, but are still around 30kt. Confidence in specifics have been difficult, so we will rely on CAMs but also persistence until the trough exits to our southeast late morning/early afternoon Wednesday. Much cooler air will settle in for Wednesday, with highs in the mid 70s to near 80. There is some uncertainly for our southern counties, which may stay a bit warmer if the boundary slows down.
142 AM EDT Wed Jul 23 2025 High pressure will build into the area from the northeast providing slightly cooler and less humid conditions through Thursday. Tranquil weather today thanks to high pressure continuing to hold in place across the Mid-Atlantic region. Humidity still on the lower side, so should feel a bit more comfortable throughout the day and especially into the overnight hours. High pressure will slide east into the Atlantic tonight, but will remain dry areawide with closest rain potential along the Carolina coastline.
- Post frontal zone impacts, the forecast turns warmer/hot for the weekend and early next with minimal rain chances. The main story today is the cold front that will move through the area this evening/overnight. Prior to the front, it will be warmer than the past couple days thanks to less cloud cover, so its really a very warm day.
Discussion: Mid-level water vapor satellite imagery and 500-mb analysis nicely depict a disturbance and associated moisture over AL, GA, FL, and SC, rounding the periphery of the subtropical ridge. What remains of a weak backdoor cold front that pushed through may aid in maximizing convection roughly along and south of I-20.
1234 AM EDT Wed Jul 23 2025 High pressure will influence the weather across the region through much of Thursday.
- Warmer and drier for the upcoming weekend. Current radar shows convection underway along the higher elevations, with a near stationary line of storms currently producing heavy rainfall in Lincoln County. With multiple outflow boundaries present across the plains, showers and storms are expected to develop across the lower foothills and lower elevations in the next hour or two. Showers and storms are expected to continue into late tonight before a cold front drops south across northern Colorado early Wednesday morning.
101 AM EDT Wed Jul 23 2025 High pressure will allow for dry conditions through Thursday morning.
(Today) Upper air analysis this evening indicates H5 ridge axis extending from the ridge center near Houston NNE up thru LA, AR and into MO. In the upper levels, an area of low pressure was spinning over the TX South Plains and was moving north. Lee troughing at the surface is yielding continued breezy southerly flow, and this is expected to persist into Wednesday. Showers and storms that develop in association with the upper low should stay well to the west of the forecast area, so another hot and dry day is in store for Wednesday. With a drier deep layer airmass expected over western AR, lower afternoon dewpoints are likely to keep heat indices just below 110F in the lower Ark River Valley of west-central AR.
Updated at 1210 AM PDT Wed Jul 23 2025 - Cooler than normal conditions continue - Drizzle likely Thursday morning - Minor tidal flooding in the San Francisco Bay (Today and tonight) There were a few interesting things found on the 00Z sounding. This happened because the cut-off low lost some upper level divergence when the jet stream pushed north. Combined with some lift and SW flow provided by the cut-off low just offshore, there is a good chance for drizzle across a large portion of the Bay Area and Central Coast.
142 AM MDT Wed Jul 23 2025 - Today and Thursday will be somewhat cooler, with a significant increase in shower and thunderstorm coverage in the wake of a cold frontal passage.
Convection developed along a cold front stretched across western South Dakota into the Nebraska panhandle last night. Convective debris from the storms along the approaching cold front could reach into far northeast Nebraska today. With the hot and humid temperatures comes increased instability ahead of the approaching cold front.
High pressure behind the front will bring quiet conditions for Wednesday night and Thursday.
Other model solutions suggest the ridge and push of warmer air aloft will result in capping across at least the southern portion of the forecast area, with the storm chances getting pushed farther north. Overall, opted to maintain storm chances through the day tomorrow, with the highest chances in the north. A Heat Advisory has been issued for these counties, aside from Kewaunee County, where onshore winds should keep it cooler. Storm chances will continue into Thursday, gradually shifting southward Thursday evening and overnight as a weak cold front drops through the area. Warm and humid conditions are expected Thursday, though it won't be as warm as tomorrow given the cold front passage along with plenty of clouds to go along with the storm chances.
/NEW/ /Overnight through Thursday/ A persistent weak trough across West Texas continues to support scattered convection which will remain well to our west, however, cloud cover associated with this convective activity will continue to stream across parts of the region overnight. This trough will begin to lift off to the northeast during the day Wednesday allowing stronger ridging to build into North Texas. As a result, we'll see some drying in the lower half of the atmosphere which should support an uptick in afternoon high temperatures through the end of the week.
- A warmer, drier airmass gradually moves in for the latter half of the week. Plenty of cloud cover is still out across much of western Colorado as a meso low over Texas is stuck underneath the high pressure ridge over the Plains, allowing our area to still be underneath the moisture plume. A trough moving across the Intermountain West today will help finally break down the high and lift the meso low northward into the Plains. However, this trough will help push the high further east and allow a better pathway for drier air to advect in from the southwest.
Mid-level high pressure will dominate the forecast through late this week, bringing hot and humid conditions.