Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
318 AM EDT Wed May 15 2024 Isolated to scattered showers expected today as an upper trough crosses the region.
337 AM CDT Wed May 15 2024 - Showers and thunderstorms chances continue today as a cold front crosses the region.
Areas east of the James River Valley will see the highest amounts of rainfall, in excess of one half inch in some locations.
141 AM EDT Wed May 15 2024 Eastward exiting low pressure will continue to provide some shower and thunderstorm activity on Wednesday, generally southeast of I-71.
Surface obs showed low pressure over the southern high plains with an inverted trough extending through northwest KS and into central SD.
1153 PM EDT Tue May 14 2024 - High pressure brings mainly dry weather and near normal temperatures for Wednesday.
422 AM EDT Wed May 15 2024 A cold front will move through the region late today and tonight.
Meanwhile, an area of high pressure in the western Atlantic will flex in strength resulting in additional periods of somewhat chaotic winds through the weekend.
1231 AM CDT Wed May 15 2024 - Thunderstorms developing over the High Plains this afternoon will move east across the forecast area by late this afternoon/this evening.
A low pressure system will slide across southern Arizona today and tomorrow, bringing scattered showers/thunderstorms.
233 AM CDT Wed May 15 2024 - Severe weather risk today mainly along and south of highway 50 with the greatest risk near the Oklahoma border - Trending warmer and drier for the weekend. A 1009 mb high is building in western Kansas in response to the subsidence with the departing storms and a cold front is entering into far northwest Kansas. Throughout today we should have a mix of sun and clouds with the cold front passing through much of southwest Kansas by late afternoon and stalling out in the Texas panhandle through northwest Oklahoma and south central Kansas.
150 AM EDT Wed May 15 2024 Low pressure developing along a front to the north Wednesday will maintain modest to high chances for showers and thunderstorms.
345 AM EDT Wed May 15 2024 Low pressure tracking across Kentucky will keep moist and unsettled weather across the Ohio Valley today.
An upper low morning from southern California into Arizona today will keep limited moisture and instability over our region, leading to isolated light showers or sprinkles along with a few thunderstorms through Wednesday.
1232 AM CDT Wed May 15 2024 - Areas of showers and thunderstorms tonight and Wednesday as low pressure moves through the region.
346 AM EDT Wed May 15 2024 A slow moving are of low pressure will bring widespread rain showers and cooler weather through this evening. We begin to dry out tonight with warmer weather returning for the end of the week though scattered rain showers will still be possible each afternoon. With a trough in place today, widespread light rain is expected for much of the day. Tonight, the trough axis moves through with negative vorticity advection leading to weak subsidence after sunset. Decided to keep some chances of precipitation going in the Finger Lakes as some models are indicating an area of surface convergence as high pressure tries to build in with adequate low level moisture to easily get some showers going.
102 AM CDT Wed May 15 2024 (Rest of tonight) Showers and storms will continue to end from west to east as the upper trough axis nears the area. Overnight lows will range from the upper 50s in the higher terrain to lower 60s elsewhere.
322 AM EDT Wed May 15 2024 Isolated to scattered showers expected today as an upper trough crosses the region.
An upper low near southern California will keep limited moisture and instability over our region leading to isolated light showers or sprinkles along with a few thunderstorms through Wednesday.
Upper level ridging has shifted to the east of the forecast area early this morning with southwesterly flow downstream from a closed low near San Diego beginning to spread across the area. However, that flow should begin to back this afternoon as the upper low to the west begins moving eastward and as a cold front moves southward through the Texas Panhandle. The backing flow this afternoon should help keep the dryline across the western column or two of the forecast area while the cold front is likely to move into the northern row of counties late in the day. Both of these features could serve as focus for convective initiation mid to late afternoon with the CAMs leaning toward the cold front being the more active focus.
(Today and tonight) Skies are clear to start off the day as a mid-level ridge was located over the southern Plains. Southerly flow has increased in the boundary layer thanks to the low-level jet. Low pressure will develop across eastern New Mexico and west Texas through the day, which should cause southerly flow to continue increasing with gusts over 25 MPH this afternoon. Temperatures this afternoon should reach the low to mid 90s once again. Unlike yesterday, instability looks a bit more meager south of I-20 with much more of a cap in place in the low-levels.
1143 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024 Convection continues to gradually dissipate in coverage around the southern periphery of an upper low over southeast MO. This low was drifting slowly to the east/southwest and should end up along the KY/TN border north of Nashville by sunrise. Scattered showers will continue overnight as an upper level low pressure system moves across the area.
Ridging aloft will move over the state by this afternoon. The main upper ridging will shift east for tonight and for Thu.
Temperatures will be in the high 60s to low 70s. Thursday will see a downsloping pattern take over ahead an incoming trough. Westerly winds bringing warm air advection will lead to temperatures 5-10 degrees warmer than today with highs in the 70s to low 80s. Thursday night will see more active weather return as a stronger upper trough comes from the Pacific, creating a low pressure system along the international border. This low will drag a cold front across the region bringing precipitation chances of 20-40%. Currently going with winds gusting into the high 20s to 30s kts in these areas even though this might still be to high.
535 AM EDT Wed May 15 2024 Isolated to scattered showers expected today as an upper trough crosses the region.
945 AM EDT Wed May 15 2024 A cold front will move through the region late today and tonight.
736 AM EDT Wed May 15 2024 Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are expected as an upper trough crosses the region, with the best rain chances lying north and west of Pittsburgh.
657 AM EDT Wed May 15 2024 Low pressure tracking across Kentucky will keep moist and unsettled weather across the Ohio Valley today. Drier weather is forecast for Thursday under high pressure.
Higher elevations staying "cooler" in the upper 80s to low 90s.
646 AM CDT Wed May 15 2024 (Today through Thursday) The main lift has exited much of the area this morning associated with a weak cold front that was moving through the area. We still will see the upper low swing through this morning and into the afternoon. A brief stint of high pressure will move across the area on Thursday, allowing for a bit more sun than today.
Should be a little warmer, with highs in the mid to upper 80s, with some isolated 90 degree readings possible. Overnight lows will be several degrees warmer than the previous night, with lows in the mid to upper 60s. On Thursday, flow aloft will become southwesterly ahead of a closed trough shifting eastward across the SW CONUS into the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles.
831 AM EDT Wed May 15 2024 Low pressure tracking across Kentucky will keep moist and unsettled weather across the Ohio Valley today. Drier weather is forecast for Thursday under high pressure.
500 AM CDT Wed May 15 2024 - Severe weather risk today mainly along and south of highway 50 with the greatest risk near the Oklahoma border - Trending warmer and drier for the weekend. A 1009 mb high is building in western Kansas in response to the subsidence with the departing storms and a cold front is entering into far northwest Kansas. Throughout today we should have a mix of sun and clouds with the cold front passing through much of southwest Kansas by late afternoon and stalling out in the Texas panhandle through northwest Oklahoma and south central Kansas.
533 AM MDT Wed May 15 2024 - Cooler today, with some scattered afternoon thunderstorms, and local redevelopment of showers in the evening. - Warmer and generally drier starting Thursday, with lesser but at least isolated daily afternoon showers/thunderstorm coverage, highest for the mountains. The region will be under the influence of upper-level troughing today, with cooler temperatures as a result. Highs will be close to 10 degrees below yesterday's values for the lower elevations, and around 5 degrees cooler in the high country. A departing trough along with convergent flow aloft will lead to strong subsidence across norther Colorado on Thursday. The vast majority of our forecast area will remain dry although a few showers and weak storms could form over the higher terrain south of I-70.
633 AM CDT Wed May 15 2024 - Showers and thunderstorms chances continue today as a cold front crosses the region.
Convection will be possible along a cold front which is progged to extend from eastern Nebraska through Central KS and into the TX Pan. Dew points into the low 60s will try and pool across southern KS. Tomorrow looks a little complicated, if there is enough recovery, there is potential for another sfc boundary to be draped across southern KS which could again be a focus for convection as a compact southern stream trough moves across Southern Plains.
654 AM CDT Wed May 15 2024 - Low pressure system to bring showers and a few thunderstorms to the Northland this afternoon into Thursday.
Temperatures will be a bit cooler today than yesterday with mostly cloudy skies and showery weather anticipated. Cold front will finally drop south of our region on Thursday, and chances for showers will diminish.
620 AM CDT Wed May 15 2024 (Today and tonight) Skies are clear to start off the day as a mid-level ridge was located over the southern Plains. Southerly flow has increased in the boundary layer thanks to the low-level jet. Low pressure will develop across eastern New Mexico and west Texas through the day, which should cause southerly flow to continue increasing with gusts over 25 MPH this afternoon. Temperatures this afternoon should reach the low to mid 90s once again. Unlike yesterday, instability looks a bit more meager south of I-20 with much more of a cap in place in the low-levels.
645 AM EDT Wed May 15 2024 A cold front will move through the region late today and tonight.
637 AM CDT Wed May 15 2024 - Low pressure system to bring showers and a few thunderstorms to the Northland this afternoon into Thursday.
A weak frontal boundary to the north of the Florida Keys is interacting with an area of high pressure over the North Atlantic this morning. From synopsis, a weak frontal boundary to the north of the Florida Keys interacting with an area of high pressure in the western Atlantic will result in a somewhat chaotic wind forecast through the weekend.
Upper ridging will provide a brief break in the unsettled conditions on Thursday.
Today: Fantastic day in store with high pressure surface and aloft settling across the forecast area. Plenty of sunshine and rather light northeast to east winds should allow for afternoon high temperatures in the lower to mid 70s. Great day to be outdoors if you can! Tonight: The high slips off to our east followed by a weak short wave that arrives after midnight. Highs will be in the lower to mid 70s.
and Thursday The upper ridge over Wisconsin will move slowly off to the east by the end of the day. Clouds will increase tonight as an upper trough and surface warm front approach from Minnesota. An area of showers and scattered thunderstorms will move across the region Thursday in association with the upper trough and surface warm front. High temperatures will be in the 60s to near 70s, except it will be cooler near Lake Michigan and where it is raining.
An upper trough is departing this morning, pushing across the midsouth,ushering in some drier air in the wake. Heights are rising today as upper ridging begins to build in, which will keep conditions quiet today.
- Drier and warmer conditions move in for this weekend, with temperatures running around 5-10 degrees above normal. If clouds hang around then temps overnight may be warmer. These storms will form in the early afternoon and move southward over the highway 160 corridor through the evening.
Keeping an eye on tomorrow as morning runs of the CAMs are depicting a better environment for a strong storm or two tomorrow afternoon into the evening as we'll see a wedge of a warm sector in Wisconsin between an advancing warm front and cold front.
At the surface, high pressure continues to nose into the region from the north. Upstream trough approaches the western Great Lakes by later Thursday, introducing shower chances. Another night with decent radiational cooling leading to large diurnal temperature ranges, with colder locations in the lower to mid 30s with patchy frost. Upstream trough approaches on Thursday with increasing afternoon clouds and a few showers possible in Lake Michigan coastal areas by early evening with increasing PWAT's and mid level isentropic upglide.
1245 PM CDT Wed May 15 2024 - Low pressure system to bring showers and a few thunderstorms to the Northland this afternoon into Thursday.
Issued by National Weather Service Des Moines IA 1228 PM CDT Wed May 15 2024 - Showers and thunderstorms chances continue today as a cold front crosses the region.
400 PM EDT Wed May 15 2024 Exiting low pressure and an upper level trough will give way to building high pressure overnight and Thursday, bringing a period of dry weather.
1133 AM EDT Wed May 15 2024 Exiting low pressure and an upper level trough today will give way to building high pressure overnight and Thursday, bringing a period of dry weather.
The ridging combined with a deep layer dry airmass will keep Thursday dry under mostly sunny skies. Lows tonight will be in the low 60s inland to mid and upper 60s near the coast.
316 PM CDT Wed May 15 2024 - Precipitation and clouds will depart from west to east this evening, making way for warmer temps and less clouds on Thursday.
Upper level ridging influences will build into mid state region as tonight through at least morning hours on Thursday with maybe a stray shower or thunderstorm or two northwestern portions of our area as afternoon hours on Thursday progress.
Isolated severe thunderstorms possible through tonight, then isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms again on Thursday under Weak ridging aloft will continue to track east across West Central Texas with persistent breezy south to southeasterly flow remaining in place through Thursday morning. Winds will shift generally to the north with the passage of the next cold front Thursday. Ample low-level moisture, coinciding with steepening lapse rates/increased instability and some good deep-layer shear across these areas seem to hold the highest potential for severe thunderstorm development on Thursday, where SPC currently has these areas covered by a Slight Risk.
1137 AM CDT Wed May 15 2024 - Severe weather risk today mainly along and south of highway 50 with the greatest risk near the Oklahoma border - Trending warmer and drier for the weekend. A 1009 mb high is building in western Kansas in response to the subsidence with the departing storms and a cold front is entering into far northwest Kansas. Throughout today we should have a mix of sun and clouds with the cold front passing through much of southwest Kansas by late afternoon and stalling out in the Texas panhandle through northwest Oklahoma and south central Kansas.
An upper trough will be digging across the Southwestern U. Northern, western, and a portion of central Oklahoma will be in the areas for the highest risk of severe storms which could produce up to 80 mph downburst/microburst wind gusts and up to baseball size hail. The tornado risk will be lowest due to the limitation of the low-level moisture. As far as surface boundaries, the dryline will remain well to our southwest but could see the cold front push into northwestern Oklahoma early Thursday morning and becoming stationary across our CWA by the evening, but models still performing poorly with the location of where the front will stall out.
A low pressure system will slide across southern Arizona today and tomorrow, bringing scattered showers and thunderstorms.
It will also limit the extent of the marine layer, keeping more inland areas in the sun and the warmer continental air mass.
Updated to include isolated thunderstorms late this afternoon and early this evening, mainly for the central/eastern Permian Basin southward across the Lower Trans Pecos and Stockton Plateau in the vicinity of the dryline. Higher elevations staying "cooler" in the upper 80s to low 90s.
1238 PM CDT Wed May 15 2024 (Today and tonight) Skies are clear to start off the day as a mid-level ridge was located over the southern Plains. Southerly flow has increased in the boundary layer thanks to the low-level jet. Low pressure will develop across eastern New Mexico and west Texas through the day, which should cause southerly flow to continue increasing with gusts over 25 MPH this afternoon. Temperatures this afternoon should reach the low to mid 90s once again. Unlike yesterday, instability looks a bit more meager south of I-20 with much more of a cap in place in the low-levels.
00Z upper air analysis shows axis of upper trough aligned over the forecast area. At the surface, a weak pressure trough slips southeast over the eastern zones today and tonight followed by a weakly reflected high moving eastward on Thursday.
144 PM EDT Wed May 15 2024 Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are expected as an upper trough crosses the region, with the best rain chances lying north and west of Pittsburgh.
(This evening through Thursday) Low pressure will continue to the northeast through the afternoon with flow around the low bringing showers and a chance for brief thunderstorms to the northeastern corner of the area. Winds will be gusting today as the high pressure and weak pressure gradient continue to move east, but winds should weaken after sunset. Thursday, high pressure moves across the southeast US with dry weather and mid level flow shifting from the northeast in the morning to the southwest by the evening.
1240 PM CDT Wed May 15 2024 An upper trough is departing this morning, pushing across the midsouth,ushering in some drier air in the wake. Heights are rising today as upper ridging begins to build in, which will keep conditions quiet today.
154 PM EDT Wed May 15 2024 A cold front will slowly move east across the area today as low pressure tracks east across the Ohio River Valley and off the Mid- Atlantic Coast tonight. High pressure returns for Thursday.
Currently there is broad high pressure over our area and an approaching wave over northern British Columbia/Pacific ocean. Outside of the Bear Lake region, high pressure will bring mostly clear skies, overall dry conditions, and overall light winds to the rest of our area today. By Thursday, high pressure starts to break down with an approaching wave.
Otherwise, partly cloudy and warm conditions will continue with high temperatures in the low to mid 80s. An upper level trough is diving into the southwest USA today, with diffluent flow aloft increasing this afternoon. Low temperatures tonight will bottom out in the lower 60s with scattered showers and a few storms continuing through dawn.
As winds slacken off tonight under mostly clear skies, expect chilly overnight low temps in the lower to mid 40s. Developing southerly flow draws up sfc dew pts in the lower 50s which could set off a few diurnal showers and storms after 21Z or so.
208 PM EDT Wed May 15 2024 Exiting low pressure and an upper level trough today will give way to building high pressure overnight and Thursday, bringing a period of dry weather.
Drier and warmer conditions return for Thursday afternoon. Discussion: Currently, an upper trough moving across the southern Appalachians is producing scattered showers and possibly a thunderstorm. For Thursday, upper trough builds across the region with the airmass drying out.
- Warmer and generally drier starting Thursday, with lesser but at least isolated daily afternoon showers/thunderstorm coverage, highest for the mountains. Upper level trough axis has shifted south and east of the area. There will be a chance for isolated afternoon showers/storms over the higher terrain.
(This evening through Thursday) Water vapor imagery currently shows the upper level trough and associated low over the Baja Peninsula this afternoon. This trough is expected to track into the northern Texas Panhandle tomorrow afternoon. Ahead of the upper level trough, perturbations in the flow aloft will help with thunderstorm development over the region this afternoon and evening. As the upper level trough tracks into the northern Texas Panhandle tomorrow, a better source of lift will eject over the area as the exit region of a 110kt 250mb jet clips the southern portion of the FA. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to continue Thursday as the upper level trough and associated low move over the northern Texas Panhandle.
Hazy skies and warm temperatures in the low 60s are being observed across much of the Snake River Valley this morning, the Ontario airport already reaching 66F as of 9am MDT.
Warm, mostly dry and locally breezy conditions will persist into the weekend, with just a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly in the higher terrain to the north and east of Tucson through Thursday.
This front is interacting with an area of high pressure over the North Atlantic. Thursday through the weekend, upper level ridging is expected to build into the region from the Gulf of Mexico.
241 PM EDT Wed May 15 2024 A mid-level trough is moving across the southeast this afternoon while at the surface, low pressure spins off the mid-Atlantic coast and a surface boundary remains draped across the Florida peninsula.
952 PM EDT Wed May 15 2024 Brief high pressure brings a mainly dry day on Thursday.
752 PM EDT Wed May 15 2024 Exiting low pressure and an upper level trough will give way to building high pressure overnight and Thursday, bringing a period of dry weather.
911 PM EDT Wed May 15 2024 Low pressure centered over the central Appalachians will slowly move east and off the coast Thursday.
As a cold front passes through the forecasting region, temperatures in the FL Panhandle, AL, and GA will turn relatively cooler.
819 PM EDT Wed May 15 2024 Upper trough over West Virginia will move to the Atlantic Ocean overnight with weak high pressure building into the area for Thursday.
724 PM EDT Wed May 15 2024 Brief high pressure brings a mainly dry day on Thursday.
757 PM EDT Wed May 15 2024 High pressure centered over Hudson Bay will nose southward across our region through Thursday night.
Currently - A deep layered trough is riding eastward through the eastern United States this evening. This low has nudged the Atlantic ridge southward across Cuba. The Keys will remain within the southern fringes of this confluent flow, but also not far away from the lower level ridge axis. The increasing flow will forestall any notion of appreciable radiational cooling and overnight lows should still be well up in the lower 80s. The combination of mainland day time heating, troughing over the eastern United States, and a ridge across Florida has resulted in light and variable winds across Keys waters this evening.
617 PM CDT Wed May 15 2024 - Precipitation and clouds will depart from west to east this evening, making way for warmer temps and less clouds on Thursday.