Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Skies are clear except for another batch of mid and high level clouds working their way northward from central California as monsoon moisture begins to return around the periphery of the upper high centered over the Desert Southwest. High pressure has begun to strengthen slightly over the region resulting in weakening onshore flow and a suppressed marine layer (depth down to around 1k ft or less). The result has been a return to milder temperatures with much of the Central Valley seeing current readings running around 5-10 degrees warmer compared to 24 hours ago. The ridge will "adjust" westward a bit over the next several days resulting in a gradual warmup with triple digit high temperatures returning to the Central Valley.
The overall upper air pattern over the past couple of days has been characterized by a mid/upper level high drifting west over AZ/NM. The flow pattern resulting from the high is currently easterly/southeasterly, but as the high continues to meander northwest over the next few days we will see the flow pattern gradually becoming more easterly/northeasterly heading into the weekend. The northeasterly flow regime favors storms forming off the higher terrain/Mogollon Rim and then propagating into the lower deserts of Southeast Arizona through the late afternoon hours.
745 AM EDT Thu Jul 18 2024 Low clouds and fog will end this morning as high pressure builds across the region. The high will maintain dry and less humid conditions through the weekend for much of the area.
946 AM EDT Thu Jul 18 2024 High pressure will build in and persist through the weekend. Despite this, strong cold advection (daily high temps about 10F below normal) will work with residual moisture at the top of the mixed layer under the subsidence inversion to allow cumulus to develop with heating, and we're already seeing that over the Bellefontaine Ridge and across areas of central Ohio. Center of the high will sink into the lower Great Lakes and remain there through Friday. This high will keep below normal temperatures and relatively low dewpoints over our area.
634 AM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024 (Today through Friday) A mid to upper level trough will continue to dig south into the Lower Mississippi River Valley. At the surface, a cold front across the Hill Country will drift southward then stall well north of our region. Lows tonight will range from the mid 70s to the low 80s.
710 AM EDT Thu Jul 18 2024 Cooler and drier weather returns for the end of the week and into the weekend along with a long awaited break in humidity.
1001 AM EDT Thu Jul 18 2024 Cooler and drier weather returns for the end of the week and into the weekend along with a long awaited break in humidity.
603 AM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024 - High pressure influence spells dry and below normal conditions today and Friday.
- Pleasant weather with low humidity, cooler-than-normal temperatures and no rain chances tonight into the first half of the weekend. High pressure will be in control today.
743 AM EDT Thu Jul 18 2024 Shower and thunderstorm coverage will increase ahead of an approaching cold front today.
650 AM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024 (Today through Friday Night) Looking at the pattern aloft, a large ridge will reside over the western states, with troughing in most areas east of the Rockies. Meanwhile, high pressure will build behind/to the north of the front from the upper Midwest to the Ohio Valley.
633 AM EDT Thu Jul 18 2024 Shower and thunderstorm coverage will increase ahead of an approaching cold front today.
Otherwise, ridging remains in place that east to southeast winds will persist though we will enter a lull going into the afternoon and winds will slacken as a result. Atlantic ridging will remain across the Florida Peninsula through the forecast. Winds are expected to trend upwards this weekend as the ridge lifts northward into North Florida and the southeastern United States.
The story of the day remains a potential increase in Lake Michigan swimming risk later in the afternoon especially between Muskegon and Holland, perhaps Saugatuck and South Haven as well, as northerly winds on the east side of a high pressure center over Iowa are augmented by the daytime lake breeze circulation. - Fair weather through Friday High pressure will continue to build in from the northwest today and bring fair and pleasant wx with high temps in the 70s today and comfortable humidity levels. It will be clear and cool tonight with mins mainly in the low to mid 50s along with a few upper 40s readings in typically cooler locations over our north/ne fcst area.
Generally, high pressure rebuilds with above-average temperatures through the weekend, with mostly sunny skies inland and morning clouds along the coast.
The low-level ridge axis remains draped across the central peninsula.
Large area of strong high pressure remains centered upstream over the Northern Plains and the Upper Mississippi Valley early this morning. Low level ridging is becoming well established across the Western Great Lakes region as upstream high pressure begins to nose into our region. High pressure center will drift SE over the next 24 hours. Ridging. High temps this afternoon will warm into the low to mid 70s. with overnight lows cooling back into the low to mid 50s. Forecast highs generally ranging from near 80 to the low 80s (perhaps even a few mid 80s mixed in) with lows in the mostly comfortable mid 50s to low 60s. Solid VFR conditions are expected at all TAF sites today and tonight as strong high pressure and dry air thru the column continue to settle into Michigan.
623 AM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024 - Quiet and warmer today with highs in the mid to upper 70s. Very quiet weather out there with high pressure in place. A broad ridging pattern aloft starts to break down on Friday in favor of a bit more of a messy upper-level troughing setup. The highest rainfall amounts should be a quarter inch or less.
High pressure and associated dry air continue to work their way into central IL, and will result in dry weather and cooler than normal temperatures today. Today will be the coolest day of the stretch, with highs peaking in the upper 70s, then gradual warming occurs through the weekend as highs return to the low 80s, which is still below normal.
Another round of scattered showers and thunderstorms is expected, initially over the high terrain and then spreading into the lower elevations late afternoon and this evening. The best potential for a few stronger storms and heavy rainfall remains south of the rim, while areas north of the rim will be fighting more stability in proximity to the high pressure center aloft. High pressure remains situated over Arizona today, keeping monsoonal moisture flowing into the state. Storm activity looks to initially develop over the higher terrain across much of northern and central Arizona late this morning into early part of the afternoon. As storms mature and outflows begin to develop, storm activity should begin to increase across the lower elevations from about mid-afternoon through the evening hours.
104 PM EDT Thu Jul 18 2024 * High pressure brings cooler, drier, and less humid conditions to the region through the end of the work week.
Some patchy fog may develop across the Northern Ranchlands and portions of the Lower RGV toward day break, but should quickly dissipate. Otherwise, high temperatures will be near to slightly above normal with highs ranging from the low 90s to around 100 degrees.
At the same time dry air in the lower to mid levels will continue to filter in, limiting rain chances for the next 24 hours.
Current dew points in western KY are in the lower 60s. The upper air pattern will be characterized by broad troughing with southwesterly flow in our area.
A little cooler today, with highs in the 90s. (Friday night through next Thursday) A broad trough will be across the Plains and the eastern U.
139 PM EDT Thu Jul 18 2024 Shower and thunderstorm coverage will increase ahead of an approaching cold front today.
Current satellite imagery showing high pressure over the area this morning, with clouds to the west in Saskatchewan and Montana. Otherwise, there is a slight chance for shower and an isolated thunderstorm for eastern North Dakota end of the TAF period, but confidence is on the low.
(This afternoon through Friday) Generally low-amplitude troughing extends southwest from Quebec into the ArkLaTex region. At the surface, a cold front extends south along the Eastern Seaboard before continuing west across northern Alabama and towards Texas. The combination of surface heating, convergence along the weak front, and lift from the troughing to our west will contribute to above average PoPs both today and tomorrow. The higher PoPs will result in highs in the 80s to lower 90s, so heat will not be as much of a concern as it has been over the past week.
225 PM EDT Thu Jul 18 2024 Cooler and tranquil conditions are expected the rest of the work week. Temperatures trend warmer this weekend as quiet conditions also continue, though a stray passing shower or two cannot be ruled out. High pressure continuing to build into the region from the west will continue to bring NW flow and cooler and drier air into the region. A period of clearing tonight will allow for radiational cooling to drop temperatures into the low to mid 50s, with patchy valley fog developing across our normal foggy areas. A mid-level ridge building to the south of us will bring SW flow and push clouds into the area during the overnight hours, limiting radiational cooling and thus fog formation.
The incredibly moist low level profile will continue a risk for heavy rainfall with around 1000 J/KG of CAPE contributing to a risk of gusty winds and frequent lightning with any storms as the cold front progresses SE.
1225 PM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024 (Rest of Today) Surface observations indicate the cold front prompting yesterday and last nights storms and current cloudy conditions is right on the door step of NW AL. This cold front will continue SE throughout the day and provide the lift necessary to trigger additional rounds of scattered rain and storms.
Overnight tonight temperatures fall into the lower to middle 70's inland and middle to upper 70's nearer the coast. Highs Friday will be cooler generally in the middle to upper 80's for all locations. Friday night temperatures once again dip to the lower to middle 70's inland and upper 70's nearer the coast.
Northerly winds from this afternoon will diminish or become calm overnight, with mainly clear skies and dew points bottoming out in the mid/upper 50s morning lows will be much cooler than previous mornings. Highs will still be below seasonal norms but in the low to mid 80s.
Forecast soundings suggest a mid-level moisture layer but dry in the lower levels with low confidence if the lower levels saturate. As a result, will introduce very low POPs for tonight across northwest Oklahoma should the lower levels moisten up.
117 PM EDT Thu Jul 18 2024 Cooler and drier weather returns for the end of the week and into the weekend along with a long awaited break in humidity.
Itâs another gorgeous mid July day with some diurnal Cu as high pressure sits overhead.
- Pleasant weather with low humidity, cooler-than-normal temperatures and no rain chances today into the first half of the weekend. High pressure centered over MN and IA will move to srn WI and nrn IL late today. Fair wx cumulus and lake breeze development can be expected once again on Fri, with temps a tad warmer. High pressure will be in control today.
226 PM EDT Thu Jul 18 2024 Cooler and tranquil conditions are expected the rest of the work week. Temperatures trend warmer this weekend as quiet conditions also continue, though a stray passing shower or two cannot be ruled out. High pressure continuing to build into the region from the west will continue to bring NW flow and cooler and drier air into the region. A period of clearing tonight will allow for radiational cooling to drop temperatures into the low to mid 50s, with patchy valley fog developing across our normal foggy areas. A mid-level ridge building to the south of us will bring SW flow and push clouds into the area during the overnight hours, limiting radiational cooling and thus fog formation.
1223 PM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024 - High pressure influence spells dry and below normal conditions today and Friday.
However, the trough lost its thermal and dynamic support as the 500 mb trough began moving east.
142 PM EDT Thu Jul 18 2024 The high will maintain dry and less humid conditions through the weekend for much of the area.
Shower and thunderstorm activity was most prominent in the Tri Cities area earlier today but convection filled in this afternoon further south along/east of the cold front. Expect the best coverage to be in the mountains, especially through midday or early afternoon, but with the H85 impulse moving through the TN valley the convective coverage should expand into the lowlands by tomorrow afternoon as well. Discussion: In the upper levels, a trough will be over the Mississippi Valley.
427 PM EDT Thu Jul 18 2024 A cold front will exit the area tonight. High pressure will build in on Friday.
High pressure was in control across the Upper Midwest this afternoon with temperatures in the 70s. Lows tonight will be warmer than last night with readings in the 50s. The high will shift to the east tomorrow with southwesterly return flow setting up across the region. This will help usher in warmer temperatures along with more moisture. An upper trough will work through the region during the afternoon and evening hours and may help kick off a few showers and thunderstorms, mainly across north-central Minnesota.
This is reflected in the low moisture content in the mid and upper levels over TX. Any cooling effects from the washed out front will be negated over Central TX as well, but there should at least be a near normal high in the low to mid 90s around Austin metro Friday.
1222 PM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024 (Today through Friday) A mid to upper level trough will continue to dig south into the Lower Mississippi River Valley. At the surface, a cold front across the Hill Country will drift southward then stall well north of our region. Lows tonight will range from the mid 70s to the low 80s.
1211 PM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024 (Today through Friday Night) Looking at the pattern aloft, a large ridge will reside over the western states, with troughing in most areas east of the Rockies. Meanwhile, high pressure will build behind/to the north of the front from the upper Midwest to the Ohio Valley.
234 PM EDT Thu Jul 18 2024 * High pressure brings cooler, drier, and less humid conditions to the region through the end of the workweek.
However, more cold air will filter into the region by tomorrow night, with lows dropping into the low-60s north, to upper-60s south.
1226 PM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024 - Quiet and warmer today with highs in the mid to upper 70s. Very quiet weather out there with high pressure in place. A broad ridging pattern aloft starts to break down on Friday in favor of a bit more of a messy upper-level troughing setup. The highest rainfall amounts should be a quarter inch or less.
307 PM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024 - 30 to 60 percent chance of precipitation Friday, with the highest chances across central South Dakota.
The upper level high appears relentless in staying around and staying strong. Under the high, wind should continue limited in magnitude and driven by slope-valley interactions.
Other areas will be closer to the low to mid 90s. (Friday night through next Thursday) A broad trough will be across the Plains and the eastern U.
106 PM EDT Thu Jul 18 2024 High pressure will build in and persist through the weekend. Despite this, strong cold advection (daily high temps about 10F below normal) will work with residual moisture at the top of the mixed layer under the subsidence inversion to allow cumulus to develop with heating, and we're already seeing that over the Bellefontaine Ridge and across areas of central Ohio. Center of the high will sink into the lower Great Lakes and remain there through Friday. This high will keep below normal temperatures and relatively low dewpoints over our area.
333 PM EDT Thu Jul 18 2024 High pressure will bring mainly fair weather with seasonable temperatures through the end of the week.
Daily thunderstorm chances will continue as well, especially across the higher terrain, mainly for Mohave County and the southern Great Basin, although there continues a slight chance of thunderstorm activity in the Las Vegas Valley.
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are likely to continue for the next several hours along (and just behind) the southeastward- advancing cold front.
605 PM EDT Thu Jul 18 2024 A cold front will exit the area tonight. High pressure will build in on Friday.
752 PM EDT Thu Jul 18 2024 High pressure will bring mainly fair weather with seasonable temperatures through the end of the week.
505 PM PDT Thu Jul 18 2024 Strong high pressure will begin to amplify over the Inland Northwest during this period continuing our string of hot weather which began around July 5th.
1019 PM EDT Thu Jul 18 2024 High pressure will prevail through Friday across the region with a frontal boundary stalling out south of the area.
624 PM EDT Thu Jul 18 2024 * High pressure brings cooler, drier, and less humid conditions to the region through the end of the workweek.
While there has been isolated convection across the Florida Keys forecast area, the strongest activity, albeit brief, moved near Snipe Point in the Lower Keys. An expansive ridge extending from the North Atlantic across the Florida Peninsula into the Gulf has maintained gentle to moderate breezes this evening, with east to southeast winds being measured between 10 to 15 knots. Temperatures will only drop into the lower 80s, with dew points remaining in the mid to upper 70s. From synopsis, Atlantic ridging will remain across the Florida Peninsula through the forecast. Winds are expected to trend upwards this weekend as the ridge lifts northward into North Florida and the southeastern United States.
626 PM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024 - 30 to 60 percent chance of precipitation Friday, with the highest chances across central South Dakota.
Most locations will see temperatures fall into the low-mid 60s (5 to 10 degrees cooler than seasonal average). Some of the coolest spots tonight will be across the higher elevations in northwest AR and in portions far northeast OK, where mid-upper 50s temps are probable if the forecast verifies.
901 PM EDT Thu Jul 18 2024 High pressure will bring mainly fair weather with seasonable temperatures through the end of the week.
304 PM PDT Thu Jul 18 2024 Strong high pressure will begin to amplify over the Inland Northwest during this period continuing our string of hot weather which began around July 5th.
Obs show dewpoints already in the low 60s with some locations in southern KY in the upper 50s. Current dew points in western KY are in the lower 60s. The upper air pattern will be characterized by broad troughing with southwesterly flow in our area.
Increased chances for showers and thunderstorms remain the highlight of the forecast with heavy down pours and gusty winds being the main threat. Highs are expected to be in the low 90s, which should be realized given the increased clouds and rain chances.
High pressure continues to rebuild, bringing above-average temperatures with mostly sunny skies inland and morning stratus along the coast.
Issued 924 PM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024 Calm and quiet conditions continue through tonight, with clear skies leading to lows in the low to mid 50s. Sunshine with diurnal cumulus expected tomorrow as high pressure continues.
High pressure has filled in bringing warming temperatures to the interior.
902 PM EDT Thu Jul 18 2024 High pressure will build into the region overnight and Friday.
Another beautiful temperature day with highs in the low to mid 80s is on tap for tomorrow as dry air continues to be ushered southeast, across the Mid-South.
Seasonably warm overnight in the low to mid 70s. - Likely to numerous afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms with the potential for gusty winds and flash flooding - Daytime temperatures expected to be near normal Upper level trough will continue digging into the Lower MS Valley with the remains of the frontal boundary stalled across the SE US.
High pressure continues to build in, with north winds and dewpoints mainly in the 50s, with a few spots near 60 even along the KY/TN border. Northerly winds from this afternoon will diminish or become calm overnight, with mainly clear skies and dew points bottoming out in the mid/upper 50s morning lows will be much cooler than previous mornings. Highs will still be below seasonal norms but in the low to mid 80s.
Looking aloft, the latest 500mb RAP40 analysis is showing a large dome of high pressure over the western portion of the country, providing NW flow over the area. The latest CAMs (HRRR and NamNest) are showing storms approaching the western CWA towards the 22z-23z timeframe, moving south along the trough through the CWA.
837 PM MDT Thu Jul 18 2024 A rather compact lobe of mid level vorticity has rounded the top of the ridge just north of the Canadian border and is continuing to head eastward/southeastward this evening. Around and underneath this wave, cooler temperatures aloft combined with ample daytime mixing has resulted in a couple bands of showers and thunderstorms.
With northerly winds in place through tomorrow evening, tomorrow afternoon's temperatures are expected to be a few degrees cooler compared to today. Most locations will top out in the lower to mid 90s.
333 AM EDT Fri Jul 19 2024 High pressure will bring dry and seasonable weather to the region today with continued low humidity.
High pressure continues to rebuild, bringing above-average temperatures with mostly sunny skies inland and morning stratus along the coast. High pressure over the area today resulting in dry and warm conditions, expected to continue into Friday. Friday will have similar conditions, with marine stratus forming (morning) and clearing (afternoon) along the coast, and highs in the low 90s inland. An upper level ridge will begin to rebuild on Friday and amplify over the Pacific NW into Saturday.
Shower and thunderstorm activity was most prominent in the Tri Cities area earlier today but convection filled in this afternoon further south along/east of the cold front. Expect the best coverage to be in the mountains, especially through midday or early afternoon, but with the H85 impulse moving through the TN valley the convective coverage should expand into the lowlands by tomorrow afternoon as well.
Some light cirrus will become more common as the day wears on, but temperature should have no problem reaching into the low to mid 80s.
Increased chances for showers and thunderstorms remain the highlight of the forecast with heavy down pours and gusty winds being the main threat. Highs are expected to be in the low 90s, which should be realized given the increased clouds and rain chances. With the local region situated between a central US trough and western Atlantic ridge, PWATs well over 2 inches are forecast to stream into the region. While storms should have fairly quick motions through the weekend, which will prevent any widespread flooding risks, the high rainfall rates and potential for some training of storms could produce very localized areas of flooding.
Aside from fog potential, NT Microphysics show a couple bands of altostratus entering southwestern MN which is a result of increasing moisture out ahead of low pressure system located farther off to our west. Most of today looks dry under partly cloudy skies with highs in the lower 80s although, diurnal isolated showers and storms will increase from west to east this afternoon.