Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Latest water vapor imagery shows an upper low centered over the Saskatchewan/Manitoba border with the upper trof extending through eastern Montana and a vort max moving through northwestern South Dakota. Additionally, a large area of high pressure is centered over the Southern Rockies, creating zonal flow across the forecast area. For today, the upper trof will continue to push east and the front will continue to sink southward. Showers and storms will end tonight, as the upper trof shifts east of the area. High pressure over the southern Rockies will continue to build, putting the area into a northwest flow pattern.
217 AM EDT Fri Aug 22 2025 High pressure will build across the area today and Saturday.
The Subtropical Ridge remains centered over the Four Corners region with a mid level shear axis nearly overhead or just southeast of our area. Locally heavy rainfall of 1 to 3 inches is possible due to the high PWs making for efficient rainfall processes and potential for slow moving or training rain cells. A subtle expansion of the Ridge will shove the shear axis and unseasonably moist airmass a little to the south on Saturday.
349 AM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025 - Scattered showers and thunderstorms expected tonight into Saturday morning as a cold front moves through. Upper ridging this morning remains centered over the Four Corners region, with weak upper flow present over the northeast Kansas. At the surface, seasonably strong high pressure is centered a bit to our northeast. Bigger changes are on the way for the weekend as a deep upper low moves across the Northern Plains and pushes a rather impressive cold front southwards. A few showers may linger into Saturday afternoon south of I-70, before clearing as much cooler/drier air steadily filters in.
Position of the upper high over Colorado and the northeast flow aloft will largely keep air mass from become capped, but still only looking at CAPE values of 500-1000 J/Kg.
Reduced subsidence aloft continues throughout deep south Texas as a mid-level high pressure holds steady over the Four Corners region.
Highs today are slightly cooler in the mid to upper 80s. An upper level trof moves over the Great Lakes by Saturday afternoon.
Ridging over the Desert Southwest should strengthen over the weekend.
Expansive upper low can be seen over central Canada early this morning on water vapor satellite imagery. Southern flanks of this low has overspread the Dakotas into MN. At the surface, the first of many cold fronts is working its way through eastern ND into northern MN. Upstream into SK, another cold front under the southwest flanks of the upper low houses cold air advection. As the reinforcing cold front sweeps through the region, windy conditions are forecast to develop.
- Scattered to widespread convection is expected over the higher terrain today, with gusty winds and lightning still the main threats.
550 AM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025 - Scattered showers and thunderstorms expected tonight into Saturday morning as a cold front moves through. Upper ridging this morning remains centered over the Four Corners region, with weak upper flow present over the northeast Kansas. At the surface, seasonably strong high pressure is centered a bit to our northeast. Bigger changes are on the way for the weekend as a deep upper low moves across the Northern Plains and pushes a rather impressive cold front southwards. A few showers may linger into Saturday afternoon south of I-70, before clearing as much cooler/drier air steadily filters in.
655 AM EDT Fri Aug 22 2025 An area of high pressure will bring fair weather through Saturday, with a light southerly flow returning above normal warmth, briefly, to our region.
643 AM EDT Fri Aug 22 2025 High pressure will build across the area today and Saturday.
740 AM EDT Fri Aug 22 2025 - A cold front brings an area-wide potential for showers and thunderstorms this weekend, with the greatest probability in southeast Kentucky.
632 AM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025 (Today) A cold front that moved southward across the area about a day ago was now stationary, extending from northern Lousiana to SW of Atlanta to across the Carolinas. Slightly cooler and drier air has arrived, as weak high pressure over the southern Great Lakes regions builds to the SE. Enough of it returning will bring low/medium (20-60%) chances of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon across portions of the Tennessee Valley, with the highest chances over far NE Alabama, and lower chances west.
Easterly flow aloft over the area with upper high near the 4 corners.
959 AM EDT Fri Aug 22 2025 High pressure will build across the region today.
640 AM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025 Reduced subsidence aloft continues throughout deep south Texas as a mid-level high pressure holds steady over the Four Corners region.
511 AM MDT Fri Aug 22 2025 - Cooler temperatures today east of the Divide, with similar temperatures west of the Divide compared to yesterday. Northwest flow aloft keeps the cooler temperatures from yesterday in place, especially east of the Continental Divide, where the trough's influence is greater. Highs today are in the mid-80s for most locations, with the cooler areas being around Johnson County where the highs are in the mid-70s. For Saturday, the upper level pattern has the high shift westwards.
559 AM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025 - Spotty hit and miss showers and storms possible south of a Brownwood to San Angelo line this afternoon - Drier and warmer for the upcoming weekend. Position of the upper high over Colorado and the northeast flow aloft will largely keep air mass from become capped, but still only looking at CAPE values of 500-1000 J/Kg.
933 AM EDT Fri Aug 22 2025 - A cold front brings an area-wide potential for showers and thunderstorms this weekend, with the greatest probability in southeast Kentucky.
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: An upper low over south-central Canada will pull away from the area Saturday allowing for lighter winds and clear skies. Cooler and drier air in place will allow for a cool night to for many with lows in the 40s, except for areas near Fort Peck Lake. An upper ridge building over the Pacific NW this weekend will not move east much as the Canadian upper low will dig an upper trough to our east.
1200 PM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025 - Spotty hit and miss showers and storms possible south of a Brownwood to San Angelo line this afternoon - Drier and warmer for the upcoming weekend. Position of the upper high over Colorado and the northeast flow aloft will largely keep air mass from become capped, but still only looking at CAPE values of 500-1000 J/Kg.
An extensive cu field has developed again today and has kept temperatures down, so have lowered highs to the low 80s for this afternoon.
The highest rain chances (30-50%) will be east of I-65 with 20% or less PoPs west. Temps will be a little warmer today topping out near 90 degrees.
250 PM EDT Fri Aug 22 2025 High pressure will build across the area today and Saturday.
101 PM EDT Fri Aug 22 2025 High pressure will build across the area today and Saturday.
What a difference a day makes, a pattern change will continue through the short term due to northwest flow aloft along with ridging to our south. All of what is mentioned above is a result of a stout upper level low that is slowly trekking easterly through Canada combined with high pressure locked in over the southwest. An upper-level ridge is stationed over the Four Corners Region and extends up to the north and west into the Pacific Northwest, leading to ongoing northwesterly flow overhead.
158 PM EDT Fri Aug 22 2025 W/SW flow in place across the area will continue through the weekend as a boundary lingers across north Florida and the SE US and the ridge axis remains across the FL Straits.
1159 AM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025 - Scattered showers and thunderstorms expected tonight into Saturday morning as a cold front moves through. Upper ridging this morning remains centered over the Four Corners region, with weak upper flow present over the northeast Kansas. At the surface, seasonably strong high pressure is centered a bit to our northeast. Bigger changes are on the way for the weekend as a deep upper low moves across the Northern Plains and pushes a rather impressive cold front southwards. A few showers may linger into Saturday afternoon south of I-70, before clearing as much cooler/drier air steadily filters in.
(Tonight) Thunderstorm activity has picked up slightly along the higher terrain areas of eastern TN but has struggled to maintain intensity so far. The highest rain chances (30-50%) will be east of I-65 with 20% or less PoPs west. Temps will be a little warmer today topping out near 90 degrees.
Upper-level ridging will slightly retrograde on Saturday, allowing for shower and thunderstorm chances to shift west. Afternoon highs will remain in the mid to upper-80s, with overnight lows remaining in the low-70s.
1021 AM MDT Fri Aug 22 2025 - Cooler temperatures today east of the Divide, with similar temperatures west of the Divide compared to yesterday. Northwest flow aloft keeps the cooler temperatures from yesterday in place, especially east of the Continental Divide, where the trough's influence is greater. Highs today are in the mid-80s for most locations, with the cooler areas being around Johnson County where the highs are in the mid-70s. For Saturday, the upper level pattern has the high shift westwards.
A weak upper trof lingers over the region through Saturday, then is absorbed into a large upper trof which evolves over the central and eastern CONUS. A weak surface trof over the forecast area moves into the marine area tonight, aided by a weak land breeze circulation, then returns Saturday into the coastal counties with the sea breeze.
Rain chances increase on Saturday, as a stationary front and inverted trough centered along the Gulf Coast produce rainfall to the north instead of the south.
146 PM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025 - Tonight's cold frontal passage is expected to arrive with decaying showers/storms or dry conditions.
- Spotty hit and miss showers and storms possible south of a Brownwood to Sonora line this afternoon - Drier and warmer for the upcoming weekend.
343 PM EDT Fri Aug 22 2025 - A cold front will bring a potential for showers and thunderstorms this weekend, with the greatest probability in southeast Kentucky.
1130 AM EDT Fri Aug 22 2025 - A cold front brings an area-wide potential for showers and thunderstorms this weekend, with the greatest probability in southeast Kentucky.
High pressure will strengthen over western Montana and north central Idaho through the weekend, allowing for temperatures to warm back into the low to mid 90s for western Montana valleys to low 100s for the lower valleys of north central Idaho. Heat advisories have been issued for the lower valleys of Idaho where hot daytime temperatures coupled with warm overnight temperatures will cause heat stress, especially to those who are sensitive to the heat.
327 PM EDT Fri Aug 22 2025 - Limited rain chances still expected tonight and Sat - High confidence in much cooler temps and lake effect rain Sun-Tue - Moderating temps late week with rain chances - Limited rain chances still expected tonight and Sat Setup remains quite unfavorable for a widespread rain (much less soaking) for tonight and Saturday with the cold front moving through the area. - High confidence in much cooler temps and lake effect rain Sun-Tue After the leading upper short wave moves through late Saturday afternoon, we will see the upper cold pool and cyclonic flow aloft start to take control over the area.
Temperatures are in the low to mid 70s this afternoon with winds increasing out of the southwest, then west later this afternoon. Expansive upper low can be seen over central Canada early this morning on water vapor satellite imagery. Southern flanks of this low has overspread the Dakotas into MN. At the surface, the first of many cold fronts is working its way through eastern ND into northern MN. Upstream into SK, another cold front under the southwest flanks of the upper low houses cold air advection. As the reinforcing cold front sweeps through the region, windy conditions are forecast to develop.
203 PM EDT Fri Aug 22 2025 High pressure will build across the area today and Saturday.
Much cooler temperatures prevail in the wake of the cold front, along with much lower dew points and relative humidity.
155 PM EDT Fri Aug 22 2025 High pressure positioned over the region today, will move east off the New England coast tonight into Saturday.
145 PM EDT Fri Aug 22 2025 Quiet and seasonably warm late summer weather is expected tonight into Saturday as high pressure remains in control.
136 PM EDT Fri Aug 22 2025 Quiet and seasonably warm late summer weather is expected tonight into Saturday as high pressure remains in control.
The high that brought our weather yesterday is now bringing dry air into our area from the east decreasing PWATs to around 1. Easterly flow aloft over the area with upper high near the 4 corners.
Coverage will likely peak during the afternoon hours along the coast where the highest PWATs are located.
(This evening through Saturday night) The trough will slide south into the Gulf tonight through the weekend.
While this low will stay well north-northeast of our area, an associated cold front shifting southward across the Upper Midwest this evening will shift across our area during the day on Saturday.
304 PM EDT Fri Aug 22 2025 - Cold front brings shower and embedded thunder chances tonight into Saturday, favoring eastern Upper, the Straits, and tip of the Mitt.
Smoke is also settling into the lower Snake Plain and the HRRR model shows the potential for increased concentration across the Vale/Ontario/Boise area on Saturday, along with thickening smoke in the mtn valleys. Otherwise dry air aloft will keep mostly clear skies over the area today with temperatures 3-5 degrees warmer than yesterday.
221 PM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025 - Scattered showers and storms late tonight-Saturday morning as a cold front sweeps southward through the region. Upper ridge axis centers over the Four Corners region this afternoon, stretching eastward into the Missouri valley. Closed upper low and accompanied cold front is observed across Nebraska, noted by an uptick in low and mid level clouds. If updrafts organize in southern Nebraska, there is low likelihood for storms to produce gusty winds around 50 mph as they enter locations near and north of the highway 36 corridor. No major changes were made to forecast highs as sunny skies allow temps to return into the low and middle 80s.
717 PM EDT Fri Aug 22 2025 High pressure positioned over the region today, will move east off the New England coast tonight into Saturday.
- Scattered to widespread convection develops over the higher terrain tomorrow with gusty winds and lightning still the main threats.
626 PM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025 A weak upper trof lingers over the region through Saturday, then is absorbed into a large upper trof which evolves over the central and eastern CONUS. A weak surface trof over the forecast area moves into the marine area tonight, aided by a weak land breeze circulation, then returns Saturday into the coastal counties with the sea breeze.
Light southwest tonight will become southwest to west at around 10 knots by Saturday afternoon, except gusty and erratic near showers and thunderstorms W/SW flow in place across the area will continue through the weekend as a boundary lingers across north Florida and the SE US and the ridge axis remains across the FL Straits.
648 PM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025 - Scattered showers and storms late tonight-Saturday morning as a cold front sweeps southward through the region. Upper ridge axis centers over the Four Corners region this afternoon, stretching eastward into the Missouri valley. Closed upper low and accompanied cold front is observed across Nebraska, noted by an uptick in low and mid level clouds. If updrafts organize in southern Nebraska, there is low likelihood for storms to produce gusty winds around 50 mph as they enter locations near and north of the highway 36 corridor. No major changes were made to forecast highs as sunny skies allow temps to return into the low and middle 80s.
554 PM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025 (Tonight) Thunderstorm activity has picked up slightly along the higher terrain areas of eastern TN but has struggled to maintain intensity so far. The highest rain chances (30-50%) will be east of I-65 with 20% or less PoPs west. Temps will be a little warmer today topping out near 90 degrees.
651 PM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025 - Spotty hit and miss showers and storms possible south of a Brownwood to Sonora line this afternoon - Drier and warmer for the upcoming weekend.
705 PM EDT Fri Aug 22 2025 High pressure will build across the area today and Saturday.
814 PM EDT Fri Aug 22 2025 - Cold front brings shower and embedded thunder chances tonight into Saturday, favoring eastern Upper, the Straits, and tip of the Mitt.
638 PM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025 (This evening through Saturday night) The trough will slide south into the Gulf tonight through the weekend.
640 PM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025 - Tonight's cold frontal passage is expected to arrive with decaying showers/storms or dry conditions.
757 PM EDT Fri Aug 22 2025 - Limited rain chances still expected tonight and Sat - High confidence in much cooler temps and lake effect rain Sun-Tue - Moderating temps late week with rain chances - Limited rain chances still expected tonight and Sat Setup remains quite unfavorable for a widespread rain (much less soaking) for tonight and Saturday with the cold front moving through the area. - High confidence in much cooler temps and lake effect rain Sun-Tue After the leading upper short wave moves through late Saturday afternoon, we will see the upper cold pool and cyclonic flow aloft start to take control over the area.
1221 AM CDT Sat Aug 23 2025 A weak upper trof lingers over the region through Saturday, then is absorbed into a large upper trof which evolves over the central and eastern CONUS. A weak surface trof over the forecast area moves into the marine area tonight, aided by a weak land breeze circulation, then returns Saturday into the coastal counties with the sea breeze.
Otherwise, daytime highs will be in the low to mid 80s where we see the most rainfall to the upper 80s to lower 90s in NW AL.
332 AM EDT Sat Aug 23 2025 - Spotty coverage of showers today, isolated storms possible - Cooler temperatures expected with lake effect rain Sun-Tue - Moderating temperatures late week with less certain rain chances - Spotty coverage of showers today, isolated storms possible Latest QPF guidance shows even less precipitation expected today than before.
A stationary frontal boundary extends across northern Florida and then further westward along the northern gulf coast states, while high pressure sits off the Mid-Atlantic and New England coastline. With Florida situated between ridging to the south and the stationary frontal boundary over northern Florida, we will see a predominant onshore wind flow for the next few days.
244 AM EDT Sat Aug 23 2025 High pressure along the northeast coast continues to drift offshore through Saturday night.
134 AM EDT Sat Aug 23 2025 High pressure will build across the area today.
153 AM EDT Sat Aug 23 2025 High pressure exits further out to sea today as a cold front nears the region, which will allow for a few showers or a thunderstorm by late this afternoon into this evening.
120 AM MDT Sat Aug 23 2025 KEY MESSAGES: - Near to below average temperatures today with a weak, dry cold front moving through this evening. A weak and dry cold front will pass through this evening to bring winds from the northeast.
Low temperatures this morning will be around 6 to 12 degrees warmer than normal, which will help to keep HeatRisk elevated despite the slight decrease in forecast afternoon high temperatures.
409 AM EDT Sat Aug 23 2025 High pressure along the northeast coast continues to drift offshore through Saturday night.
and temps to drop down to the low 60s to low 70s for lows this Sat morning. AR will remain on the ERN periphery of the upper ridge to the west. A new cold front will also drop south into the state with this transition in upper flow. The drier/cooler air will settle in.
Satellite imagery early this morning reveals a strong ridge of high pressure across the Northern Rockies, with abnormally dry air in the low levels of the atmosphere. A warming trend remains on track this weekend, with temperatures reaching the low to mid 90s for western Montana valleys to low 100s for the lower valleys of north central Idaho. Heat advisories continue across the lower valleys of Idaho where hot daytime temperatures coupled with warm overnight temperatures will cause heat stress, especially to those who are sensitive to the heat.
THIS MORNING: A cold front continues to track slowly southward early this morning, bringing breezy northerly winds and lower dewpoints. Most of the Upper Midwest will be under the influence of a large upper trough centered over the Great Lakes. On the western flank of this trough, and firmly in the low-lvl cold advection zone, we'll see an increase of diurnal CU field this afternoon. High-resolution CAMs all indicate the development of widely scattered showers to sprinkles over MN a few of which may graze the Buffalo Ridge areas. TONIGHT: A secondary lobe of vorticity tracks along the western side of the larger trough, likely keeping occasional mid-lvl cloud cover in the region and perhaps allowing an isolated shower or two to track through the Minnesota River valley and Buffalo Ridge areas into the overnight.
1238 AM CDT Sat Aug 23 2025 - Scattered showers and storms late tonight-Saturday morning as a cold front sweeps southward through the region. Upper ridge axis centers over the Four Corners region this afternoon, stretching eastward into the Missouri valley. Closed upper low and accompanied cold front is observed across Nebraska, noted by an uptick in low and mid level clouds. If updrafts organize in southern Nebraska, there is low likelihood for storms to produce gusty winds around 50 mph as they enter locations near and north of the highway 36 corridor. No major changes were made to forecast highs as sunny skies allow temps to return into the low and middle 80s.
400 AM EDT Sat Aug 23 2025 - Spotty coverage of showers today, isolated storms possible - Cooler temperatures expected with lake effect rain Sun-Tue - Moderating temperatures late week with less certain rain chances - Spotty coverage of showers today, isolated storms possible Latest QPF guidance shows even less precipitation expected today than before.
1203 AM EDT Sat Aug 23 2025 - Cold front brings shower and embedded thunder chances tonight into Saturday, favoring eastern Upper, the Straits, and tip of the Mitt.
- Stellar late summer weekend as advertised thanks to the lower afternoon humidity with abundant sunshine.
Then as the main cold front pushes across the area this afternoon, there will be a low chance (20%) for a few thunderstorms, roughly along and east of I-55 and then ending by 00z. Northwest winds will gust into the mid 20 mph range behind the cold front this afternoon and then diminish with sunset over land but continue to be gusty over southern Lake Michigan.
128 AM EDT Sat Aug 23 2025 Seasonal summer temperatures continue on Saturday before a cold front moves through the region Saturday evening. This cold front brings in much cooler air, resulting in below average temperatures across the Ohio Valley for much of the following work week. An upper level low will be carving its way through Canada toward the Great Lakes region, with much cooler air behind its cold front. The cold front will move through the region during Saturday evening into the overnight hours.