Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
This should do a good job of keeping the lower atmosphere capped through the morning if this plays out as it currently looks (though it could certainly change). Moderate to Strong deep layer shear and favorable veering of the low level winds will support strong to severe storms with all storm modes possible, morphing into a wind and hail threat. As we look farther north, the lake breeze will cut off some surface instability, and also the low passing through our region and gradually cutting off the deep warm air advection.
Highs today were lowered given the cooler temperatures behind the line of thunderstorms (and outflow boundary) along with the increase in cloud cover. Expect overnight lows in the low to mid 70s. A few CAMs indicate showers and thunderstorms developing across northeast New Mexico this evening, with this activity moving southeast across the Panhandle late this evening, and possibly into portions of the Big Country Monday morning, on the eastern periphery of an upper level ridge. (Monday night through next Sunday) A high pressure ridge will generally keep our area hot and dry through the next few days.
A strong ridge will continue to bring hot and dry conditions across the State.
This will change during afternoon on Monday with the approach of a 500mb trough over the Lower Mississippi River Valley, which will provide synoptic support and focus for thunderstorm development particularly across the northwestern half of our area.
1114 AM MDT Sun Jun 15 2025 -Daily chances for thunderstorms, some possibly severe, through Monday -Wet and cooler mid-week -Mostly dry and much warmer weather for the second half of the week Upper air analysis continues to show a stalled upper low off the Pac NW/Canadian coast, with active WSW flow across the western CONUS. Weak ridging sits across the northern Plains. As the wave crosses ND late tonight, a cold front will cross the CWA on Monday.
In addition, we are monitoring some showers and storms developing from the coastal plains into the Highway 77 corridor. On Monday, we will continue to see a low chance for showers and storms from the coastal plains into the Highway 77 corridor.
1114 AM MDT Sun Jun 15 2025 - Continued warm this afternoon, turning cooler for the first half of the upcoming week.
* None Quiet close to the weekend with stable conditions in place from high pressure tracking across the region. The onshore flow will keep lakeshore locations a few degrees cooler. At the same time, weak mid-level troughing develops across the mid Mississippi River Valley and east of the broader trough. The main downstream consequence locally for Monday will be warm, moist advection and will help increase daytime highs into the low to mid 80s with continued dry conditions.
129 PM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025 (Today through Monday) Key messages: - Low chances of rain each day, a few strong storms and locally heavy rains possible today - Seasonable temperatures with elevated heat index values Subtropical ridging centered over New Mexico into northern Mexico and troughing off the Texas coast overlay a moist south to southeasterly lower level flow off the Gulf of America. Slightly stronger Subtropical ridging and associated subsidence on Monday will keep low chances of showers and thunderstorms closer to the Coastal Plains.
We start the period with a well defined low/mid level ridge of high pressure positioned from the southwest Atlantic, westward across the FL Peninsula into the central Gulf. On the western flank of this ridge, a H20/H30 upper level trof axis was aligned over the central Gulf coast and marked by a cyclonic curvature in the cloud elements.
Discussion: Currently, a weakening upper trough will across the central and southern Appalachians this afternoon. Limited CAPE is in the hail growth zone, limited shear, and high freezing levels are not conducive to hail. For Monday, upper trough moves east but heights remain low with another upper trough approaching.
Some CAMs are showing isolated rain showers developing, but the influence of high pressure and a mid level inversion should again keep conditions mostly dry. Cloudy skies continue with slightly warmer temperatures in the afternoon.
(Tonight through Monday night) Weak low pressure remains anchored along the lower Texas coast through the short term period, with above normal moisture for mid June.
247 PM EDT Sun Jun 15 2025 Temperatures creep up a few more degrees Monday across the interior, with readings cooler near the coast where winds will be off the waters.
A southeast to south low-level flow remains in place across the region with the Atlantic ridge axis across the central part of the peninsula and a few showers and storms have been ongoing over the Gulf since this morning.
Highs today were lowered given the cooler temperatures behind the line of thunderstorms (and outflow boundary) along with the increase in cloud cover. Expect overnight lows in the low to mid 70s. A few CAMs indicate showers and thunderstorms developing across northeast New Mexico this evening, with this activity moving southeast across the Panhandle late this evening, and possibly into portions of the Big Country Monday morning, on the eastern periphery of an upper level ridge.
Daily shower and thunderstorm activity will diminish midweek as a high-pressure ridge builds over the Southeast.
PoPs will range from 50-70 percent through Monday afternoon with temperatures in the low 90s, after starting in the muggy mid-70s.
151 PM EDT Sun Jun 15 2025 Atlantic high pressure will continue to build across the Southeast through the week.
Areas formerly under those clouds were a bit cooler, in the mid 80.
A mid-level high pressure system will dominate to our east and west with surface ridging over the Gulf, keeping the region under a blocking pattern through the period. As ridging builds, we'll see a few disturbances skirt the eastern periphery of the ridge, increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms across South Texas during the latter half of the week.
339 PM EDT Sun Jun 15 2025 High pressure to the east of the area will maintain mostly dry conditions tonight through Monday.
1255 PM MDT Sun Jun 15 2025 - Weak low pressure will bring a threat of precipitation and thunderstorms to areas from Sun Valley north to the Montana border on Monday.
The high rain chances and associated cloud cover will once again hold most sites a little cooler than normal.
From synopsis, Atlantic ridging will remain across Florida for the next several days.
1123 AM EDT Sun Jun 15 2025 A bit of a foggy start to the day will give way to mostly sunny conditions and some warmer temperatures. Temperatures creep up a few more degrees Monday, with readings cooler near the coast where winds will be off the waters. The warm up will continue through midweek until a cold front approaches from the west. This will scatter out after sunrise and lead to a mostly clear day with warmer temps than yesterday. isolated showers will be possible in the higher terrain Mon but otherwise it will be a dry day. Temps will also be a little bit warmer as well.
1222 PM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025 (Tonight through Monday night) Weak low pressure remains anchored along the lower Texas coast through the short term period, with above normal moisture for mid June.
We start the period well defined low/mid level ridge of high pressure positioned from the southwest Atlantic. A H20/H30 upper level trof axis aligned over the central Gulf coast and was marked by a cyclonic curvature in the cloud elements. /10 An upper level ridge over the western Atlantic continues to nose into the Southeast and eastern Gulf as we roll toward mid-week. As ridging builds overhead late in the week and into the weekend, rain chances will begin to decrease and the heat will begin to crank up.
We're still watching a weak trough on Monday, and updated the coverage of thunderstorms. Latest model runs seem to hint at more Snake Plain activity, chances for precipitation and thunder were increased by about 10% in the Lower Snake Plain.
(Tonight through Monday Night) Active weather pattern will continue to start the work week as weak troughing aloft persists. This will maintain onshore flow in the low levels, bringing ample Gulf moisture into the local area. Afternoon temperatures will continue to be near normal, with warmer than normal overnight temperatures owing to the humid airmass which will inhibit radiational cooling.
903 PM EDT Sun Jun 15 2025 Atlantic high pressure will continue to build across the Southeast through the week.
This cooling is due to a trough to our north that will knock down heights/thicknesses slightly as the high retreats slightly south.
Above-average low temperatures are expected Monday morning, with isolated fog possible in the Laurel Highlands and along the West Virginia ridges. The highest rainfall potential is expected between 12pm to 10pm.
Lows tonight will range from the lower 60s northwest to the upper 60s southeast. A mid level trough will move slowly out of the Mid Mississippi Valley Monday and into the lower Ohio Valley Monday night. Highs on Monday will mostly be in the lower 80s. However, additional chances for showers and thunderstorms will spread back in from the southwest later Monday night ahead of the mid level trough.
Coverage will continue to trend downward and be more isolated overnight but cannot totally rule out nighttime activity with weak impulses rotating about an upper trough axis and surface boundary displaced to our north and west. Discussion: Currently, a weakening upper trough will across the central and southern Appalachians this afternoon. Limited CAPE is in the hail growth zone, limited shear, and high freezing levels are not conducive to hail. For Monday, upper trough moves east but heights remain low with another upper trough approaching.
Additional shower and storm development is likely tomorrow (~60%) afternoon ahead of an upper level trough dipping through the lower Mississippi Valley.
638 PM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025 (Tonight through Monday Night) Active weather pattern will continue to start the work week as weak troughing aloft persists. This will maintain onshore flow in the low levels, bringing ample Gulf moisture into the local area. Afternoon temperatures will continue to be near normal, with warmer than normal overnight temperatures owing to the humid airmass which will inhibit radiational cooling.
654 PM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025 We start the period well defined low/mid level ridge of high pressure positioned from the southwest Atlantic. A H20/H30 upper level trof axis aligned over the central Gulf coast and was marked by a cyclonic curvature in the cloud elements. /10 An upper level ridge over the western Atlantic continues to nose into the Southeast and eastern Gulf as we roll toward mid-week. As ridging builds overhead late in the week and into the weekend, rain chances will begin to decrease and the heat will begin to crank up.
High clouds from southern OR into central ID will gradually develop into a frontal zone tonight and Monday morning, then move east as a cold front later Monday ahead of a Pacific upper trough moving onto the coast. By Monday afternoon showers and thunderstorms will initiate along the cold front with a 20-30% chance of measurable rain.
A broad ridge remains out across the Atlantic with the western extent stretching across the Florida Peninsula.
537 PM MDT Sun Jun 15 2025 - Weak low pressure will bring a threat of precipitation and thunderstorms to areas from Sun Valley north to the Montana border on Monday.
657 PM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025 (Tonight through Monday night) Weak low pressure remains anchored along the lower Texas coast through the short term period, with above normal moisture for mid June.
Overall the pattern remains unsettled in the short term with a short wave trough axis located pretty much on top of the state this morning. Expect an increase in convection as the day progresses with the aforementioned trough axis moving east during the day.
1235 AM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025 We start the period well defined low/mid level ridge of high pressure positioned from the southwest Atlantic. A H20/H30 upper level trof axis aligned over the central Gulf coast and was marked by a cyclonic curvature in the cloud elements. /10 An upper level ridge over the western Atlantic continues to nose into the Southeast and eastern Gulf as we roll toward mid-week. As ridging builds overhead late in the week and into the weekend, rain chances will begin to decrease and the heat will begin to crank up.
1145 PM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025 (Tonight through Monday Night) Active weather pattern will continue to start the work week as weak troughing aloft persists. This will maintain onshore flow in the low levels, bringing ample Gulf moisture into the local area. Afternoon temperatures will continue to be near normal, with warmer than normal overnight temperatures owing to the humid airmass which will inhibit radiational cooling.
(Today and tonight) Persistent upper-level high pressure will continue to keep hot and dry conditions across the area today, with above normal high temperatures reaching into the mid 90s to near 101 degrees this afternoon.
An upper level trough will remain over the Mississippi Valley, with ridging over the western CONUS and the subtropical ridge to our east, with the forecast area under southwest flow aloft.
Warmer temperatures and minor HeatRisk concerns midweek. Cooler temperatures and light rain possible late week. A weak cold front is visible on satellite offshore far northern California early this morning, and will move onshore late morning or early afternoon. Weak ridging will begin building in behind the trough.
1026 PM MDT Sun Jun 15 2025 - Weak low pressure will bring a threat of precipitation and thunderstorms to areas from Sun Valley north to the Montana border on Monday.
328 AM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025 The moist airmass remains entrenched over the area with a broad upper level trough draped over the area. Highs will be nice and subdued thanks to persistent cloud coverage/showers with only a few eastern sites break 90F today, while everywhere else peaks in the high 80s.
Temperatures across the island chain are in the lower 80s and along the Reef winds are being recorded at near 15 knots. A majority of the remainder of the week will trend similar to what we have experienced this weekend, due to an Atlantic ridge across the Florida Peninsula. This ridging will result in the continuation of moderate east to southeasterlies with nightly surges and daytime lulls. Temperatures with the steady flow will be in the lower 80s at night and warm to the upper 80s during the day with dew points in the mid 70s. Late this week, a change in pattern could occur resulting in wetter conditions but this is dependent on if a cut off upper level low is able to move westward over Florida.
High pressure will keep much of the area dry through Monday, with just a few showers possible. Tomorrow will be very similar today, just a little warmer and a little more humid. High pressure will start to shift eastward during the day, allowing south/southwest flow to develop across our region. Like today, forcing will be weak, and we'll have a mid-level warm layer, but daytime heating and instability could be enough to allow some more showers to pop up, particularly over the higher terrain. It'll be a few degrees warmer than today, with highs in the mid 70s to around 80F.
Similar to Sunday, the highest rainfall potential is expected between 12pm to 10pm.
310 AM EDT Mon Jun 16 2025 Ridging will build into the Southeast US this week leading to warming temperatures and a more typical summertime pattern. Ridging over the region and a warm moist air mass will support a seasonable weather pattern of isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon. A weak lee-side trough and sea-breeze will be the main forcing mechanisms to trigger storms. Temperatures will mainly be in the low 90s, just a few degrees above normal. Any convection will diminish during the evening with lows overnight in the low to mid 70s.
(Rest of Today and Tonight) A warm and humid day is ahead as deep southerly flow persists ahead of the mid/upper trough positioned in the Ozarks through east TX. We will also be watching a weak impulse drawn northeast ahead of the trough that will produce a band of thunderstorms this afternoon in central and northern MS while another cluster develops in southern MS.
Overall the pattern remains unsettled in the short term with a short wave trough axis located pretty much on top of the state this morning.
624 AM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025 The moist airmass remains entrenched over the area with a broad upper level trough draped over the area. Highs will be nice and subdued thanks to persistent cloud coverage/showers with only a few eastern sites break 90F today, while everywhere else peaks in the high 80s.
-Mostly dry and much warmer conditions for the second half of the week. Damaging winds will continue for the next hours across northwestern South Dakota as additional showers and thunderstorms develop along the cold front. The main upper trough approaches the area Monday night, swinging through the CWA Tuesday and Tuesday night. This will lead to scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms along with some cooler temperatures.
Some of the lower clouds could reach into the lower Umpqua Valley near or just north of Roseburg this morning. An upper level trough offshore this morning will move onshore this afternoon. Shower chances diminish as the trough axis shifts east of the area this evening. A dry, stable air mass moves in on Tuesday and this will result in warmer temps by about 3-6F compared to today.
Upper level troughing will remain the dominant influence across western Washington through much of the week as an upper level low spins across the northeastern Pacific.
A warm and humid day is expected today as a upper level ridge over the southwestern CONUS and eastern Rockies tries to build eastward. This will cause a cold front to sag across central Plains, head of which thunderstorms are expected to develop late this afternoon into this evening from eastern Nebraska into northern Kansas.
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Upper ridge over the region will flatten out for the next few days before beginning to rebound to the west around midweek. Weak high pressure moving across the region with weak boundary over southern Montana will limit shower and thunderstorm activity today.
A weak trough will bring an increase in mid and upper level winds beginning Monday night through Tuesday.
414 AM MDT Mon Jun 16 2025 - Weak low pressure will bring a threat of precipitation and thunderstorms to areas from Sun Valley north to the Montana border on Monday.
* Gusty southwesterly winds return late-week into the weekend as a longwave trough drops temperatures across the region.
Subtropical ridging builds over our area in the short term. Otherwise, strengthening subsidence and drying with the ridge will overcome any forcing to keep rain chances out of the forecast.
613 AM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025 An upper level trough will remain over the Mississippi Valley, with ridging over the western CONUS and the subtropical ridge to our east, with the forecast area under southwest flow aloft.
The mesoscale convective complex over south Texas has interrupted onshore flow this afternoon and with hi-res models showing less in the way of convection today, we have lowered rain chances for portions of the coastal plains into the Highway 77 corridor for the remainder of today. Otherwise, the forecast is on track with highs in the lower 90s to near 100 degrees. For Tuesday, we will keep the forecast dry across all of south central Texas as the subtropical ridge axis begins to build in from the west.
The trough will provide favorable dynamics in a decently moist environment for a 20% chance of rain showers in southeast Oregon and west-central Idaho. Though with the cold frontal passage gusts will be elevated anyways, with widespread gusts around 25 mph. Precipitation clears tonight as the trough and front move eastward, and we enter a period of quieter weather before the cold and wet deep upper low pressure system this weekend. A cold front moves through SE OR late this aft and SW ID this eve. Gusts to 30 kt behind the cold front. A cold front will briefly increase NW winds to 10- 20 kt with gusts 20-30 kt between 17/01z-04z.
- Warm weather continues today, but cooler by Tuesday as a storm system moves through.
208 PM EDT Mon Jun 16 2025 Bermuda high pressure keeps hot and humid weather in place during the first half of the work week.
(This evening through Tuesday) Our area will remain on the eastern periphery of an upper level ridge through Tuesday. The ridge is still forecast to begin shifting to the west and to become re-centered over the Baja Peninsula Tuesday. Tonight will be warm and humid with overnight lows in the lower to mid 70s. With the 850mb thermal ridge expanding a bit eastward into our area on Tuesday, temperatures will be a few degrees hotter than today.
1149 AM EDT Mon Jun 16 2025 Ridging will build into the Southeast US this week leading to warming temperatures and a more typical summertime pattern. Key Message(s): - Isolated to scattered storms this afternoon Upper level ridging extends from the southwest Atlantic and into the eastern Gulf of America, placing the area along the northern periphery of the ridge. The main forcing mechanisms at the surface include a weak lee-side trough and the sea breezy boundary. Temperatures will mainly be in the low 90s, just a few degrees above normal. Any convection will diminish during the evening with lows overnight in the low to mid 70s.
1228 PM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025 An upper level trough will remain over the Mississippi Valley, with ridging over the western CONUS and the subtropical ridge to our east, with the forecast area under southwest flow aloft.
High pressure over the region will maintain very warm temperatures through much of the coming week, especially away from the coast and across the interior portions of the area. Overall a warm stretch of weather will continue through at least mid week as a ridge of high pressure sits over the West Coast. Temperatures trended a little cooler today in most areas as onshore flow to the east increased which created an earlier sea breeze. Thus, temperatures there are trending slightly warmer. Across the region, highs Tue/Wed are expected to be within 3 or so degrees of today in most areas, except trending more on the higher side of that across the interior portions of SLO County and the Antelope Valley as well as southern SB County due to sundowner winds.
Weak upper troughing generally remains situated just west of the area while upper ridging slowly builds off the southeast U. Temperatures will remain warm in the upper 80's to near 90 degrees for highs while overnight lows dip into the lower to middle 70's tonight and Tuesday night. MM/25 An upper level ridge over the western Atlantic continues to slowly nudge toward the Southeast and eastern Gulf as we roll into the back half of the week.
222 PM MDT Mon Jun 16 2025 - Weak low pressure brings a threat of precipitation and thunderstorms to portions of the Central Mountains and along the Divide this afternoon and evening.
By tomorrow, a weak trough will be dropping down along the Mississippi River, slowly sliding east into the evening hours. This trough ejection will coincide with peak heating, allowing for more widespread thunderstorm chances into the evening hours.
Archer Models are in good agreement that we will be transitioning to a drier and warmer pattern in the extended.
On the periphery of the main H500 high pressure system, a few areas could also see some thunderstorms. Starting later this afternoon into the evening hours, latest satellite and H700 analysis showing dry air encompassing most areas under the high pressure system. Closer to the surface, a cold front will also be moving south, which should give lift for thunderstorms to develop.
- Temperatures moderate some tomorrow with isolated showers and storms possible over the high terrain along and north of I-70.
Upper ridge will be a bit stronger over the eastern half of the region tomorrow, so will have a bit more of an east/west split in PoPs, with higher PoPs to the west and a bit lower PoPs to the east.