Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
833 AM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024 Previous Key Messages: - Broad area of low pressure over the NW Caribbean has a high chance (100%) for tropical development as it lifts north into the eastern Gulf of Mexico this week and strengthens. Mid-level high pressure across the area is responsible for limiting instability/providing subsidence. Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine is forecast to continue to develop and strengthen over the northwest Caribbean in the next 24 hours, moving north into the eastern Gulf of Mexico mid week.
Showers will persist in the eastern forecast area though given the swath of deeper moisture and some lingering forcing, as low pressure slides by to the southeast. Skies will very gradually clear out west to east tonight into early Wednesday, as high pressure builds in from the west.
On Wednesday, high pressure will remain in control keeping the region dry.
359 PM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024 High pressure to prevail through mid week with generally low rain chances.
(Tonight) Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop late this afternoon/early evening across north-central Oklahoma in the vicinity of weak surface boundary and associated low pressure system.
1231 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 Showers and a few thunderstorms are possible today as a cold front slowly moves across the region.
312 PM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024 An amplifying upper level trough and slow moving frontal system will bring showery conditions to Central Pennsylvania through at least Wednesday, along with a few rumbles of thunder. However, more organized precip/showers move into the srn counties after 06Z and slide over the Lower Susq, mainly S of the Turnpike. Upper ridging continues to pump up, more so to our east then overhead. The low pressure center associated with all this light rain will slide generally northward.
146 PM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024 A passing low pressure system may bring strong to severe storms this evening, including tornadoes. ------------------------------------------------------------------- A surface warm front is currently situated near the I-70 region over eastern Ohio. Additional convection will likely develop along and/or behind this noted boundary and track northeast this afternoon as the low-level jet enhances over southeast Ohio. ------------------------------------------------------------------- The digging midwest trough is favored to cut off into a closed low across the south-central CONUS with some uncertainty in the timing and depth of a northern stream trough north of the Great Lakes on Wednesday.
This is especially true as upper trough becomes cutoff to our south and tropical system Helene enters the picture. As low becomes established more centered on lower to mid Mississippi River valley, upper ridge axis will shift and tilt further east, likely keeping our weather quiet and pleasant. Interestingly medium range guidance suggest remnants of tropical system wrapping up into cutoff low which could gradually weaken over time, but still looks to push ridge axis back west by late week. Precipitation shield expected to rotate through parts of the mid Mississippi and Ohio River valleys but probabilities decrease as you move northwest based on strength of ridge and drift of reformed upper low from previous system and tropical feature. This is the biggest differences in guidance - how far north this low will get.
1215 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 - A few isolated to scattered shower possible this morning but measurable precipitation is unlikely - Expected highs for rest of the week averaging between about 77-84 degrees, with warmest temperatures in the west Showers were added with slight chances (15%) across the eastern sections of the area (Wakeeney-Hays and south through the highway 183 corridor and eastward) through about noon. The breezy conditions of this afternoon will be the strongest winds of the week as persistent surface ridging to the northeast provides light and variable winds overnight, mixing out to light and easterly in direction each afternoon. Widespread ceilings at or above 12000 ft AGL can be expected over the next few hours as an upper level trough crosses western Kansas.
337 PM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024 An amplifying upper level trough and slow moving frontal system will bring showery conditions to Central Pennsylvania through at least Wednesday, along with a few rumbles of thunder. However, more organized precip/showers move into the srn counties after 06Z and slide over the Lower Susq, mainly S of the Turnpike. Upper ridging continues to pump up, more so to our east then overhead. The low pressure center associated with all this light rain will slide generally northward.
Synoptic Overview: An upper level low (centered over Iowa at 18Z) will progress southward into MO-IL (today). Meanwhile, a pronounced upper level ridge over the western CONUS will shift eastward across the Rockies (tonight) and High Plains (Wed). as the aforementioned ridge shifts eastward over the region. as the MSLP pattern re-orients in response to the development of a modest lee trough in Colorado. Long range guidance indicates that a broad upper ridge will prevail over the majority of the lower 48 in this period. albeit with a cut-off low trapped within. As long as the cut-off low remains well downstream of the Tri-State area (as guidance presently indicates).
However, a secondary and stronger front will move across SE TX by Wednesday as the main mid/upper level trough moves through Middle/Lower MS Valley.
- Slightly warmer temperatures through the weekend.
SPC Marginal Risk appears reasonable in this environment with low LCL heights hinting at the low chance for an isolated weak tornado/landspout, with isolated wind damage the primary threat. The shear axis and/or trailing inverted trough does slowly slide east through the area on Wednesday.
Much warmer and dry conditions are expected for the next couple of days before a fast moving weather system brings periods of breezy to windy conditions, a few showers or storms, and cooler temperatures to close out the week. -thor 24/18Z TAF Period VFR conditions prevail beneath upper level ridging through the 2418/2518 TAF period.
Another cold front is expected to move through the area overnight, exiting our southern counties tomorrow morning.
314 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 - A brief period of relatively dry weather is expected this evening through Wednesday following the passage of a cold front.
Previous Key Messages: - Broad area of low pressure over the NW Caribbean has a high chance (100%) for tropical development as it lifts north into the eastern Gulf of Mexico this week and strengthens. Mid-level high pressure across the area is responsible for limiting instability/providing subsidence. Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine is forecast to continue to develop and strengthen over the northwest Caribbean in the next 24 hours, moving north into the eastern Gulf of Mexico mid week.
1200 PM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024 High pressure will remain over the Maritimes today through Wednesday.
206 PM MDT Tue Sep 24 2024 Much warmer and dry conditions are expected over the next couple of days before a fast moving weather system brings periods of breezy to windy conditions, a few showers or storms, and cooler temperatures to close out the week.
211 PM MDT Tue Sep 24 2024 KEY MESSAGES: - A warm up to the 80s/low 90s for Wednesday then stepping cooler through the weekend. WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Progressive upper ridge over the Northern Rockies today will move east into the Northern Plains Wednesday.
The front moving in today will stall out tonight and Wednesday as an upper level low pressure system cuts off just to our west.
Temperatures will continue to increase each day through the end of the week as an upper-level ridge sets up over the region.
Upper Michigan remains under the influence of high pressure early this morning per latest surface/RAP analysis. But, weak WAA in the return flow ahead of the next disturbance currently over the Dakotas/MN has kept temperatures a tad warmer than yesterday morning. Currently, ground-based obs across the area are generally reporting mid to upper 40s with the usual cold spots coming in around 40, 10 degrees warmer than yesterday morning's obs at this time. Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb trough on the west coast, a ridge in the Rockies and a trough in the Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes region 12z Wed. Ridging then moves into the northern plains by 00z Thu and builds into the upper Great Lakes after 00z Fri.
- Much cooler temperatures will occur this week with highs in the 60s and 70s.
The upper ridge axis slowly shifts east overnight, allowing southerly flow aloft to move in.
A high pressure system will influence the weather across northern and central Nevada, bringing dry conditions and above normal temperatures. Tonight through Wednesday night A ridge of high pressure will shift to the east as a trough of low pressure enters the Pacific NW and moves through Idaho. Highs will mainly be in the lower 80s with lows in the 40s under party cloudy to mostly clear skies.
Increasing southwest wind in Oregon Wednesday afternoon ahead of a north Pacific cold front Wednesday night.
These warmer surface temperatures will combine with rather cool temperatures aloft to create an unstable atmospheric profile with steep lapse rates and several hundred joules of CAPE.
This low will mainly miss the UP to the south and east, but there remains a 20-30% chance of a few isolated light rain showers over Luce County this evening and slight chances (~15% for western Schoolcraft and Alger counties to get some rain as well. Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb trough on the west coast, a ridge in the Rockies and a trough in the Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes region 12z Wed. Ridging then moves into the northern plains by 00z Thu and builds into the upper Great Lakes after 00z Fri.
(Tonight through Wednesday night) Key Message: - Low (20-40%) chance for showers and thunderstorms through tomorrow As visible on water vaper satellite imagery, the upper to mid-level pattern features a trough over the Plains just east of the Mississippi River and is progged to dig further southeast over the next several days.
A stout area of high pressure builds over the Southern U. High Plains today into tonight and extends a high-amplitude blocking ridge from the low to mid-levels. A persistent strong area of low pressure over the Deep South though could create light northerly to northeasterly flow over northwest Wisconsin this weekend, depending on the track of the low and how much the ridge flattens out.
A deepening upper-level low pressure system over the IL and IN, will bring areas of vorticity around its periphery across the OH Valley and WV through tonight. Expect tonight's temperatures to range from the mid to upper 60s across the lowlands, into the low 60s central mountains, and mid 50s higher elevations of our northeast mountains. Abundant cloudiness and expected cooling showers should keep warm Max temperatures, ranging from the lower 80s lowlands, into the mid 70s central mountains, and mid 60s higher elevations of our northeast mountains.
1105 AM PDT Tue Sep 24 2024 Updated AVIATION Section An extensive amplified ridge is seen in GOES-West water vapor imagery covering most of the western third of the U. The center of the ridge looks like a pinwheel spinning right over western Oregon. The unusually strong high pressure may allow some sites to break record highs today. Looking offshore there's a significant cold front seen crossing 140W as of 330am PDT.
247 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 - A brief period of relatively dry weather is expected this evening through Wednesday following the passage of a cold front.
Overnight lows remain on the milder side through tonight ranging from the upper 60s across the Hill Country to the low to mid 70s elsewhere. An upper level low pressure system moving across the Midwest into the Tennessee valley helps to steer Tropical Storm Helene toward Florida but will also propel a second cold front across South- Central Texas through Wednesday morning.
An upper-level ridge axis moving over the Rockies on Wednesday will lead to anomalously warm 700 mb temperatures over the next two days.
1239 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 (Today through Wednesday) A mid to upper level trough will continue to push off to the east over the Ohio River Valley as an mid level ridge builds in from the west. A weak surface cold front will remain stalled to the north of the region along Central Texas. Tomorrow however, the mid to upper level trough is expected to track further south providing for more lift for storms to initiate, though drier air aloft will keep these mostly isolated to scattered in nature.
Slightly cooler temperatures and breezy winds arrive towards the end of the weekend. High pressure remains situated over much of Arizona, keeping warm and dry conditions in the forecast today. The weather story of the week will be the dominant high pressure that builds across the desert southwest.
A cold front is expected to move through the region Wednesday evening.
Behind the front, drier and slightly cooler air take hold with highs topping out in the 80s for most with 90s seen in the Rio Grande Valley.
Upper trough that brought last night's rain continues to push east across MN, splitting into a closed low over IA and a more northern branch over the arrowhead. Meanwhile, upper ridging continues to amplify over the Rockies, and will push into the Plains late tonight and into tomorrow. Between the ridge and the southward sinking IA low the pattern becomes rather blocky and doesn't change much through the rest of the work week.
1219 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 (Today through Wednesday) A cold front currently resides basically from Texarkana northeast to the MO Bootheal this morning. This feature will continue to move closer to our region today as the parent upper level trough continues to spread eastward across the lower MS River Valley. The only other entity to mention this morning is perhaps some patchy fog in the lower spots, however, guidance may still be a bit too bullish with fog potential (as we've seen recently). 1) the deepening upper level low across the Cornbelt. which eventually starts heading southward down the Mississippi River on Wednesday and 2) PTC9 over the western Caribbean and the impacts the upper level trough and closed ULL have on it.
While low AC and cirrus cigs may linger over these areas overnight, additional mainly elevated cigs will quickly spread SSE into the region from the NW after 06Z Wednesday, as scattered mainly elevated convection develops along a stronger cold front that will slide SSE through the region.
High pressure over Arizona will keep unseasonably warm temperatures and dry conditions in place through the end of the week.
412 PM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024 High pressure will remain ridged across the region tonight into Wednesday.
1046 PM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024 An amplifying upper level trough and slow moving frontal system will bring showery conditions to Central Pennsylvania through at least Wednesday, along with a few rumbles of thunder. Upper level pattern continues to amplify on Wednesday with the offshore upper ridge sharpening as split upper trough arrives into the western GLAKS to the mid Mississippi River Valley, with a southern cutoff low moving into southeast MO through Wednesday evening.
These warmer surface temperatures will combine with rather cool temperatures aloft to create an unstable atmospheric profile with steep lapse rates and several hundred joules of CAPE. High pressure holds during the day tomorrow with light north/northeasterly winds and mostly clear skies.
Mostly clear skies prevail this evening temperatures in the lower 70s. Upper trough that brought last night's rain continues to push east across MN, splitting into a closed low over IA and a more northern branch over the arrowhead. Meanwhile, upper ridging continues to amplify over the Rockies, and will push into the Plains late tonight and into tomorrow. Between the ridge and the southward sinking IA low the pattern becomes rather blocky and doesn't change much through the rest of the work week.
Surface analysis shows a cold front extending from southwest Lower Michigan back through portions of the Mid-South near the Tennessee River.
A stationary front continues to instigate precipitation in southern zones while a disturbance ahead of larger troughing over the midwest will boost precipitation chances north of I-30 overnight. Temperature minimums remain on track toward a range in the low-to-mid 60s as a result.
304 PM MDT Tue Sep 24 2024 Winds will be on a downward trend throughout the day today as the upper level ridge continues to move to the east. Tomorrow, we will be centered under the ridge axis leading to temperatures in the high 80s to low 90s.
526 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 - A brief period of relatively dry weather is expected this evening through Wednesday following the passage of a cold front.
905 PM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024 Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will move across the area at times through Wednesday, ahead of a slow moving cold front.
650 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 (Tonight) Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop late this afternoon/early evening across north-central Oklahoma in the vicinity of weak surface boundary and associated low pressure system.
829 PM MDT Tue Sep 24 2024 An upper level high is centered over SW WY this evening with ridge axis extending north through western and central MT. Except for thin/high clouds spilling over the ridge and some patchy haze from prescribed burning in the region, mainly clear, quiet and dry conditions will prevail across the area tonight. Hoenisch Much warmer and dry conditions are expected over the next couple of days before a fast moving weather system brings periods of breezy to windy conditions, a few showers or storms, and cooler temperatures to close out the week. 25/00Z TAF Period Flow aloft gradually turns more southwesterly through Wednesday as upper level high pressure shifts east of the area with just some increase in high level clouds.
703 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 (Tonight through Wednesday night) Key Message: - Low (20-40%) chance for showers and thunderstorms through tomorrow As visible on water vaper satellite imagery, the upper to mid-level pattern features a trough over the Plains just east of the Mississippi River and is progged to dig further southeast over the next several days.
626 PM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024 An amplifying upper level trough and slow moving frontal system will bring showery conditions to Central Pennsylvania through at least Wednesday, along with a few rumbles of thunder. However, more organized precip/showers move into the srn counties after 06Z and slide over the Lower Susq, mainly S of the Turnpike. Upper ridging continues to pump up, more so to our east then overhead. The low pressure center associated with all this light rain will slide generally northward.
High pressure rest of Tuesday afternoon with temperatures around 10 degrees F above normal. Cooler wet front moves in on Wednesday bringing widespread rain.
641 PM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024 An amplifying upper level trough and slow moving frontal system will bring showery conditions to Central Pennsylvania through at least Wednesday, along with a few rumbles of thunder. However, more organized precip/showers move back into the srn counties after 06Z and slide over the Lower Susq, mainly S of the Turnpike, as deep layer moisture increases and additional large scale lift arrives. Upper ridging continues to pump up, more so to our east then overhead. The low pressure center associated with all this light rain will slide generally northward.
549 PM MDT Tue Sep 24 2024 Updated Aviation Discussion Much warmer and dry conditions are expected over the next couple of days before a fast moving weather system brings periods of breezy to windy conditions, a few showers or storms, and cooler temperatures to close out the week.
754 PM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024 High pressure to prevail through mid week with generally low rain chances.
649 PM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024 An amplifying upper level trough and slow moving frontal system will bring showery conditions to Central Pennsylvania through at least Wednesday, along with a few rumbles of thunder. However, more organized precip/showers move back into the srn counties after 06Z and slide over the Lower Susq, mainly S of the Turnpike, as deep layer moisture increases and additional large scale lift arrives. Upper ridging continues to pump up, more so to our east then overhead. The low pressure center associated with all this light rain will slide generally northward.
Otherwise, look for dry conditions and cooler temperatures today with highs in the lower to mid 80s.
Cooler temps and drier air wl cont to be ushered into the FA thru the day today, w/ most areas topping out in the upper 70s to low 80s. Post-landfall, model guidance has been quite consistent over the past several days on a Fujiwhara type soln, in which the warm-core low of Helene wl interact w/ a cutoff cold-core upper low in place over the Mid-South. In the absence of stronger mid-lvl steering flow, this phenomenon looks to centrifuge the remnants of Helene inland and N/wrd quickly, before beginning to rotate around the antecedent cold-core upper low.
(Today) Weak cold front continues to drift eastward closer to NW AL this early Wed morning, as an upper low/trough axis drops into the Midwest region. Scattered to perhaps numerous showers/few tstms are expected for areas S/E of the front going more into the daytime hrs, as the upper low drops more into the Mid South area.
A stationary front continues to instigate precipitation in southern zones while a disturbance ahead of larger troughing over the midwest will boost precipitation chances north of I-30 overnight. Temperature minimums remain on track toward a range in the low-to-mid 60s as a result. Conditions should remain mostly dry for the rest of Wednesday and overnight into Thursday Though exhibiting stationary characteristics for the time being, our boundary is technically a cold front, and once it finally manages to clear the area, its effects will be noticeable in the form of highs falling into the low to mid 80s and remaining there for the next several days.
Temperatures Wednesday will still be around average or just above average with highs in the low to mid 90s.
146 AM EDT Wed Sep 25 2024 High pressure to prevail through mid week with generally low rain chances.
Dry conditions and warmer than average temperatures prevail for the next several days.
228 AM MDT Wed Sep 25 2024 The powerful upper ridge axis over the region will shift slowly east today to the high plains as a broad trough moves into the Pacific NW. This will create both warm air advection over our region and lee side surface troffing. Broad upper trough moves across the northern Rockies breaking down the upper ridge. Any cooling may be offset to some degree by mid level downslope flow, so dont expect much relief from the warmer temps. Highs will still reach the lower 80s west to upper 80s in the far southeast.
Upper level energy is forecast to form a cut-off low, then slowly drift southwestward.
Early this morning, the H500 RAP analysis shows ridging across much of the central CONUS extending across the Rockies with a low pressure system sitting near the Missouri and Illinois state line. H850 temperatures should rise up into the lower 20s Celsius during the afternoon hours today. These warmer low level temperatures will aid in warming up temperatures up to the 80s for highs today. Given the upper level pattern is similar for Thursday, the surface conditions remain the same as well, but with afternoon highs a few degrees warmer into the upper 80s for some locations.
(Today through Thursday Night) Still watching a cold front to our north which hasn't moved very much over the last day or so. Eventually, the broader scale upper trough will amplify further and it should bring the boundary through the region. Dry and a very slightly cooler air will begin to filter into the region by Thursday. Until the front slides through today temperatures will continue to remain on the warmer/humid side.