Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Today: Dry weather will persist with an upper ridge overhead. Tonight and Monday: An upper trough and surface cold front encroach on the northwestern CWA tonight and Monday. The upper ridge builds back into the area for much of this forecast period, resulting in the mainly focus being late week into the weekend when a system could bring convection and potentially severe storms to the area.
An upper-level ridge will amplify over the Midwest on Sunday, with low to mid-level flow becoming increasingly south-southwesterly through the day. Elmore Guidance consensus continues to depict an upper-level ridge sharply amplifying over the Midwest on Monday. While guidance has begun to converge on a solution that supports the axis of the upper-level ridge being located right over the Middle Mississippi Valley or just to the west, the positioning of the stalled front still varies to the point that temperatures for at least the northern half of the CWA are uncertain through much of the workweek.
In the upper levels, a deep trough is over the Eastern U. with a closed low over the Northeast and a closed low over the Southeast Coast. A ridge extends from Texas to the Midwest. High pressure near Quebec extends through the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley.
900 PM PDT Sat Oct 11 2025 Cooler with night and morning low clouds through the weekend.
By Monday morning, all precipitation across the forecast area will be in the form of snow, except for the low valleys of Idaho. A period of steadier, accumulating snow will create winter travel conditions in the high terrain and over mountain passes. Snow, along with wind, and below freezing temperatures increases the risk for icy conditions.
Once this wave passes through the region, making for widespread precip chances, a cold, trough pattern will envelop the area for much of the upcoming work week, making for mild daytime highs and chilly overnight lows bordering on freezing for many areas that have still yet to see a season-ending hard freeze. Elsewhere, models have become a bit more bullish on lowland precip with the system, with NBM probabilistic guidance suggesting 60-70% chances for even the lower Basin to receive wetting rains by Monday morning. With ensembles in good agreement on this parent trough being followed up by cool northwesterly flow, followed by another trough later in the week, temperatures are expected to drop Monday through the midweek, with light precip lingering through the week across the mountains.
Amplified pattern across the lower 48 with deepening trough across the Pacific NW, a trough across the eastern US and a upper level ridge extending from west Texas into the Upper Midwest. The upper ridge will lead to well above normal temperatures ahead of the approaching trough from the the Pacific NW. High temperatures will be closer to 15-20 degrees above normal on Sunday as thermal ridge builds into the central plains with high temperatures in the 80s. Open wave trough approaching from the west is pushed north as it works east, but trailing cold front is expected to build south through the region early Monday morning.
Did elect to lower dewpoints this afternoon with forecast soundings in agreement with a stripe of upper 30 to low 40 degree dewpoints generally along I-85 and on the western side of the coastal low but the eastern side of the trough over northern AL. Current forecasted highs will be in the low to mid 70s with lower amounts on the eastern third of the CWA.
116 AM MDT Sun Oct 12 2025 - Winds are forecast to gust up to 35 mph through this evening as a cold front moves across the Tri-State area. With the current track of the cold front, high temperatures are expected to be in the 70s to mid 80s today. The beginning of the week still has the area in southwest flow aloft with a trough deepening and reforming over the Western United States while a ridge tries to build over the Southern United States and Gulf of America.
352 AM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025 Forecast discussion for routine morning forecast issuance - Above average temperatures continue early this week, slighter cooler mid-week. Some disagreement on just how fast the lower clouds will depart. Rain Chances: Dry conditions are expected for most of today as mid-upper level ridging exits to the east.
1135 PM MDT Sat Oct 11 2025 - Waves of showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue overnight, mainly over the higher terrain. - Heavy rainfall and localized flooding possible for the higher elevations of the eastern San Juans overnight. Dry elsewhere, with a late afternoon cold front dropping south through the plains into Sunday evening.
Light rain likely tonight 07z WV satellite reflects large scale troughiness over the northern Plains with southwesterly flow aloft over our CWA. Today into tonight, lee cyclone will continue to develop and shift over Lake Winnipeg as the jet streak noses over ND. Attendant cold front will sweep eastward through the upper Midwest. Additionally, with antecedent conditions in the low levels being relatively dry, rain totals will tend to be unimpressive with 12.
Mid/upper ridging centered in Mexico will drift northward and over Texas heading into the early-midweek timeframe. As it kicks out and tracks across the Rockies into the Plains in the second half of the week, it looks like it'll suppress the ongoing ridge as it transitions eastward.
- Freezing temperatures will be widespread tonight under clear skies, with areas west of the Divide dropping into the 20s.
For today, high pressure looks to reside in the region at the surface allowing for clear skies and lighter winds. Following the near freezing to below freezing early morning temperatures across the region, daytime heating looks to warm afternoon temperatures of the CWA to slightly above those experienced yesterday with forecast highs in the 50s and 60s. This cloud cover will allow for overnight temperatures to be a bit warmer tonight compared to those from the previous night.
649 AM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025 Updated aviation portion for 12Z TAF issuance - Above average temperatures continue early this week, slighter cooler mid-week. Some disagreement on just how fast the lower clouds will depart. Rain Chances: Dry conditions are expected for most of today as mid-upper level ridging exits to the east.
- Dry weather conditions with cooler mornings will prevail into this new week. Given the dry conditions favorable for radiational cooling again tonight, temps were nudged toward cooler guidance especially in more hilly locations. The Gulf Coast region will remain locked in between synoptic ridging to the west over south TX and cutoff low over the east.
559 AM EDT Sun Oct 12 2025 High pressure will provide for dry conditions through the end of the week. Temperatures will be a few degrees above normal for the next few days before slightly cooler temperatures arrive for mid week. Highs today will be in the low to mid 70s. Mid level ridging will build into the Ohio Valley tonight into Monday. The large scale, positively tilted ridge continues to be in control of our sensible weather for the start of the working week. To our northwest, an occluding low over Manitoba continues to work east, further amplifying the ridge and trailing a long cold front down into CONUS/ Great Plains.
639 AM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025 - Dry weather conditions with cooler mornings will prevail through this weekend. The Gulf Coast region will remain locked in between synoptic ridging to the west over south TX and cutoff low over the east.
226 AM PDT Sun Oct 12 2025 Cooler with night and morning low clouds in the coastal areas and valleys through Monday morning.
Cooler and drier condition can be expected today before temperatures trend warmer through the early part of the week. The next storm system will impact the area during the middle part of the week, with cooler temperatures prevailing through late week. An upper trough will continue to move east out of Utah this morning. The associated strong cold front is currently analyzed across southeast Utah and will continue to shift southeast. A band of showers continue early this morning near the frontal boundary (along with isolated showers across the northern Utah mountains), otherwise a cooler, drier, and more stable airmass will settle into the area today. This storm will pinch off into a closed low before diving south along the west Coast tonight through tomorrow.
632 AM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025 A cutoff upper low over the southeast states opens up into a trough and ejects northeast across the Mid-Atlantic states today into Monday.
237 AM PDT Sun Oct 12 2025 Cooler with night and morning low clouds in the coastal areas and valleys through Monday morning.
318 AM PDT Sun Oct 12 2025 Cool onshore flow will continue this morning behind this upper level low. This low will likely produce wetting rain west of the Cascades with widespread 0. Higher totals up to 1 inch of precipitation are expected in the higher Cascades, although that will fall as snow with 4500 foot to 5000 foot snow levels through the event. This low will dive down the coast and bring in some unusually cool conditions even for mid October.
715 AM EDT Sun Oct 12 2025 A low pressure system tracking along the Atlantic coastline will spread rain east of the Blue Ridge through tonight before it shifts further north.
603 AM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025 (Tonight through Monday) Dry northerly flow will continue as slow-moving upper-level trough persists to our east. Temperatures will trend upward, reaching the low to mid 80s on Sunday and Monday as a ridge nudges in from the west.
726 AM EDT Sun Oct 12 2025 Coastal low pressure will linger through today before shifting northeast while high pressure remains inland. At the surface, Low pressure off our coast will gradually move to the north. A decent gradient of moisture will persist from west to east, with the lower PWATs remaining inland and the highest PWATs offshore. The NBM reflect this, with the highest POPs in these locations by the afternoon, with POPs a bit lower into our GA counties. The highest QPF will be across the Charleston Tri-County and far inland, with lower QPF further south and along the GA coast.
531 AM EDT Sun Oct 12 2025 * Periods of rain into Monday night, mainly for the eastern half of the CWA * Becoming breezy in southeast PA * High pressure brings cooler and dry weather for the rest of the week. The double-barrel upper low over the eastern states will gradually merge into one, broad upper low/trough. The Poconos/Endless Mountains of the NE could stay in the lower 50s.
A churning coastal low offshore from the Carolinas and a lingering trough overhead will provide some roving, transient, broken cloud cover today and tonight. Temperatures will be in the upper 60s to mid 70s across the lowlands while the mountains will stay in the 50s and 60s. Better chances for fog expected tonight as winds across the lowlands look more favorable. Lows will drop back to the upper 40s and lower 50s across the lowlands, with 40s in the mountains.
630 AM PDT Sun Oct 12 2025 Cool onshore flow will continue this morning behind this upper level low. This low will likely produce wetting rain west of the Cascades with widespread 0. Higher totals up to 1 inch of precipitation are expected in the higher Cascades, although that will fall as snow with 4500 foot to 5000 foot snow levels through the event. This low will dive down the coast and bring in some unusually cool conditions even for mid October.
(Rest of today and tonight) Very warm and breezy conditions will continue this afternoon with a modest surface pressure gradient in tandem with a low-level thermal ridge. By tonight, a trailing cold front will advance southward into northwest Oklahoma as the parent mid/upper-level trough lifts to the northeast across the Northern Plains. The aforementioned tropical moisture will interact with the weak cold front.
As this occurs the eastern edge of an upper level ridge (centered over Texas) will creep into Georgia. This ridge will take firm control of our local weather for the rest of the workweek, and on Monday it will be the harbinger of warming temperatures. Widespread high temperatures in the lower 80s are anticipated Monday afternoon.
140 PM EDT Sun Oct 12 2025 Low pressure will track slowly along the coast of the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic through tonight and early Monday. High pressure will bring drier conditions by Monday afternoon through mid-week. At the sfc, the center of the low was located off the Wilmington/Surf City/Topsail Island coastline. Expect the low pressure along the coast to weaken and move more to the NE and affect the Mid-Atlantic states Monday. Partly to mostly cloudy skies should continue in the north and east on Monday night as some mid/upper level disturbances rotate around the upper low.
200 PM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025 - A strong cold front will race through SW KS Sunday evening with strong northeast winds. - Dramatically cooler with thickening and lowering clouds Monday.
- Dry conditions and cooler temperatures are expected for early week.
- Low humidity, cooler mornings, and warm afternoons through the week. (Tonight through Monday night) The center of an upper level high has drifted to northern Mexico today. The upper ridge will continue to dominate during the short term keeping our weather dry. The low level flow will remain southeasterly and dewpoints will increase.
102 PM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025 - Dry weather conditions with cooler mornings will prevail into this new week. High pressure ridging at the surface and aloft will continue to prevail across the area tonight and Monday. High pressure and dry conditions will continue on Monday, with Highs in the mid 80s.
127 PM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025 - High pressure will keep the bulk of the new week dry and seasonally mild. Blocky upper pattern persists as we sit pretty much directly under a sharp ridge in between deep troughing to the east with two embedded lows, and broad troughing to the west.
- Widespread freezing temperatures tonight under clear skies, with areas west of the Divide dropping into the 20s.
- Temperatures will average slightly warmer than normal through Monday before becoming more seasonable. Upstream, deep troughing digs into the mountain west with a few embedded waves in the N Plains ahead of the main trough.
Highs today and tomorrow will essentially be the same: 70s with some places approaching or reaching the low 80s. (Monday Night through next Sunday) Into the work week, a high pressure system is going to be the dominant feature, leading to the increase in our temperatures. They will level off in the low 80s for highs by mid-week, with morning lows in the low to mid 50s. That high pressure will flatten into the weekend, leaving us vulnerable to a trough moving in from the west. This trough appears to be of decent strength in the extended guidance, but it is too soon to say whether we will see any hazardous weather because of it.
- Above average temperatures continue early this week, becoming slightly cooler mid-week. Unimpressive dynamics and deeper moisture still look to be an issue as Canadian high pressure and reservoir of dry air build in from the northwest.
309 PM EDT Sun Oct 12 2025 High pressure through Monday night.
348 PM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025 - Cold front continues to push across the area this afternoon.
Tonight, subsidence from upper high pressure will continue to keep skies clear as the surface decouples allowing winds to ease. A few cooler protected valleys could see the low 40s. Monday, the axis of the the positively tilted upper ridge remains stretched from an upper high over southern Texas to Lake Huron, remaining over the CWA. At the surface, the high near Maine drifts just east to New Brunswick.
(Tonight) With abundant sunshine, temperatures have reached the lower 80s in some urban areas.
Rest of Today: Well above normal temperatures in the lower to upper 70s combined with breezy SE winds gusting 20-25+ mph will result in elevated fire weather conditions, mainly in unharvested fields. The highest forecast GFDIAg values are confined to the far northwest portion of the outlook area and peak in the very high category. Tonight: Increasing warm air advection and convergence aloft (850-700mb), out ahead of an approaching surface cold front, will lead to scattered showers developing mainly after 8 PM. Expect a narrow band of isolated/scattered showers to slowly work west to east across the outlook area overnight, with the highest chances to receive measurable rainfall north of Highway 30 (30-60%).
453 PM EDT Sun Oct 12 2025 Rain will move back into the area tonight into Monday as the western side of a coastal low pressure system impacts our area.
An arctic cold front continues to push across the Continental Divide, bringing gusty north to east winds to northwest Montana this afternoon. Snow levels will subsequently fall, reaching most western Montana valley floors and the higher valleys of north- central Idaho late tonight. By Monday morning, precipitation is expected to be all snow across western Montana and north central Idaho, with the exception of the lowest Idaho valleys. While confidence in valley snow totals remains low due to model variability and warm ground temperatures, the combination of snow, gusty winds, and freezing temperatures will create a significant risk for icy road conditions. High-resolution guidance highlights the Highway 2 corridor between Libby and Kila as a zone of particular concern for intense snowfall and icing between 6 PM and midnight tonight, where the arctic boundary and incoming moisture will interact.
331 PM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025 - A cold front moving through the region will shift southerly winds to the northwest tonight and usher in cooler temperatures.
320 PM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025 - Temperatures fall into the low to middle 30s across portions of northwest Nebraska. Frost development is possible for areas near the Pine Ridge tonight into Monday morning.
146 PM EDT Sun Oct 12 2025 Broad low pressure along the Mid-Atlantic coast will bring increased rain chances, gusty winds, and high surf through early week. The low will eventually be pushed east by a cold front midweek. Cooler temperatures arrive late week, particularly for the mountains. Model guidance has continued to back off on rainfall amounts for Monday as the northward progression of the low and association precipitation runs into strong high pressure to our north.
122 PM EDT Sun Oct 12 2025 A coastal storm brings passing showers today lingering over the ridges into Monday.
Typically under these clear sky conditions, we tend to see low temperatures end up being slightly cooler compared to the National Blend of Models (NBM), and high temperatures slightly above the NBM.
A high amplitude ridge in the mid/upper levels extending from TX toward the Great Lakes, and a trough off the Atlantic coast, will continue to control the pattern across the eastern Conus. Some cloud cover is bleeding into our extreme NE sections on the outer fringes of the coastal low, but this will have little impact and should decrease tonight as the low pulls away tomorrow.
Scattered showers are likely to develop late tonight across portions of NE OK within the corridor of the slow moving cold front with rains continuing into the day Monday. (Monday through Sunday) The combination of showers, thick cloud cover, and the stalled front will keep temps across NE OK cooler on Monday. Unseasonably strong upper ridge expands across the southern Plains through mid week.
- High pressure overhead will keep the region dry until a shift in the pattern by the end of the week. - Rain prospects are returning to the forecast as the ridge breaks down. High pressure remains locked in overhead, keeping the region dry and warm to finish the weekend. Compared to 24 hours ago, no real change is present as temperatures are nearly identical, if not a degree or two warmer.
1106 AM EDT Sun Oct 12 2025 * Periods of rain into Monday night, mainly across the eastern half of the CWA * Becoming breezy in southeast PA * High pressure brings cooler and dry weather for the rest of the week. The double-barrel upper low over the eastern states will gradually merge into one, broad upper low/trough. The Poconos/Endless Mountains of the NE could stay in the lower 50s.
- Dry weather conditions with cooler mornings will prevail into this new week. Highs today will climb into the low to mid 80s. The Gulf Coast region will remain locked in between synoptic ridging to the west over south TX and cutoff low over the east.
Little to no rain expected for Southeast Texas through at least mid-week as the persistent mid to upper level ridge continues to meander over Mexico and Texas. The high temperatures will continue in the upper 80s to lowers 90s for much of the week and the low temperatures will remain in the 60s for much of the inland portions and in the lower to mid 70s along the coast. Although the high temperatures will continue to run roughly between 5-10 degrees above normal this week, drier air will still allow for somewhat comfortable early mornings and evenings.
1223 PM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025 Updated aviation portion for 18Z TAF issuance - Above average temperatures continue early this week, slighter cooler mid-week. Some disagreement on just how fast the lower clouds will depart. Rain Chances: Dry conditions are expected for most of today as mid-upper level ridging exits to the east.
- A strong cold front will race through SW KS Sunday evening with strong northeast winds. - Dramatically cooler with thickening and lowering clouds Monday.
122 PM EDT Sun Oct 12 2025 High pressure will provide dry conditions through the upcoming workweek. Slightly above normal temperatures early in the week will trend a bit cooler for the second half of the week before trending warmer again by this weekend. Elongated midlevel ridging will extend from the Great Lakes SW into the ArkLaTex region, providing dry and seasonably mild conditions for the local area for both the near and short term periods. Monday will be very similar to today, with highs topping out in the lower to mid 70s amidst mostly sunny skies.
Across the CONUS this afternoon, satellite and UA pattern show a deep amplified trough with upper low over the southeastern states and northern FL vicinity. A ridge has shifted east over the OH and TN Valley regions. A broad amplified trough remains over the western CONUS with a southwest flow streaming from NM and TX panhandle region into the central and northern Plains regions. A baroclinic zone is stretched from the eastern Dakotas through central and western NE/KS regions where the effective cold front resides. Considering that, middle 80s should do it for the highs today. Limited risk of any hazardous weather still anticipated over the next several days as limited moisture transport and limited instability look to be in place with very weak ascent mechanisms even though a surface cold front passes through the area this evening.
This is continuing strong winds both ahead and behind of an accompanying cold front sweeping west to east across the Dakotas, and eventually into Minnesota. Upper ridge axis builds into the area from southeast to northwest. This will serve to keep cooler air mass behind today's cold front to linger over the region while modifying, keeping temperatures near average.
Overall, the afternoon/evening will remain mostly dry before a cold front approaches from the west during the overnight hours. A pre-frontal band of rain is anticipated to consolidate ahead of the cold front and move overhead during the overnight hours.
1105 AM EDT Sun Oct 12 2025 Coastal low pressure will linger through today before shifting northeast while high pressure remains inland. At the surface, Low pressure off our coast will gradually move to the north. A decent gradient of moisture will persist from west to east, with the lower PWATs remaining inland and the highest PWATs offshore. The NBM reflect this, with the highest POPs in these locations by the afternoon, with POPs a bit lower into our GA counties. The highest QPF will be across the Charleston Tri-County and far inland, with lower QPF further south and along the GA coast.