Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Continued the chances for rain in the afternoon and evening hours as the upper level low continues to shift eastward. The upper trough bringing our current storms to northwest Minnesota this afternoon will continue to elongate with a NW to SE orientation as is it consolidates into a closed upper low over the Great Lakes later this week with a jet streak overhead the upper midwest/ northern plains. Along with much cooler 700-850mb temps behind today's front and steepening sfc- 4km lapse rates to further enhance wind transfer to the sfc from aloft.
(Wednesday through Thursday Night) The aforementioned cold front will continue eastward, bringing continued rain chances ahead of it through Thursday evening.
359 AM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024 - Dry and sunny conditions persist today and tomorrow, with the area under the influence of upper level high pressure.
The set up is in place as an area of high pressure moves overhead. Max temperatures this afternoon will be 5-10 degrees warmer than yesterday. Daytime highs will be in the mid-upper 90s in the western NV and northeast CA valleys, while the Sierra communities rise to the lower-mid 80s.
Some slight warming was noted near 500 mb, and indeed calculated mixed CAPE other indices pointed to slightly higher stability in the lower-to-mid troposphere compared with yesterday. This ridge will remain suppressed southwards across South Florida and the Keys through the remainder of the week and the weekend.
This system is occurring in association with a pronounced disturbance traveling southeast around the periphery of a ridge building over the SW US.
609 AM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024 - This morning's cold front will continue to produce the potential for showers and thunderstorms through this morning.
Cooler, but still seasonably warm, weather expected heading into the weekend.
1005 AM EDT Wed Jun 5 2024 Modest shower and thunderstorm chances persist today, as a ridge axis remains extended towards the local area from the western Atlantic. Have continued to undercut the NBM on PoPs, due to the ridge influence and persistent onshore flow.
557 AM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024 (Today and tonight) A cold front will continue to push southward through the rest of Oklahoma and western north Texas today. Sometimes the wind shift and drier air never reaches the lower terrain of southeast Oklahoma.
232 AM MST Wed Jun 5 2024 Building high pressure will bring hotter temperatures over the next several days.
543 AM MDT Wed Jun 5 2024 Winds will gradually decrease today with warmer and drier conditions following through the rest of the week with just a few showers and thunderstorms across Southwestern Montana during the afternoon. Given that enough of the models are still pointing towards a high wind threat this morning, I elected to let the high wind warning run its course through noon today.
High pressure north of the Bahamas continues to ridge west over Florida keeping us in a predominant easterly flow. It's a muggy morning out today with the latest surface observations showing temps in the mid to upper 70's and dew points in the low to mid 70's. Scattered showers and isolated storms will be possible later this evening with sea breeze collisions, with the highest chances over the interior counties. High temperatures will top out in the low to mid 90's. High pressure north of the Bahamas is expected to start shifting east later today into tonight.
Current conditions: Showers are exiting to the east this morning as a cold front moves into western WI. Diurnal heating will see some recovery in instability today as highs climb into the low 70s. But by in large rain totals will be on the lower side with the HREF LPMM highlighting a few areas seeing up to an inch of rain. Thursday: Noticeably cooler temps are expected for Thursday as northwesterly flow brings our highs down into the upper 50s and low 60s.
626 AM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024 (Today and tonight) Triple digit heat goes on hiatus today following last evening's modest cold front. Despite this improved low-level moisture, hefty inhibition aloft and cooler highs today will keep surface parcels capped. Northwest flow aloft with some passing mid and high clouds dries out tonight as H5 height rises jump 60 meters in 24 hours ahead of an upper high settling over New Mexico after midnight.
An upper level ridge will build into the region through the short term period, bringing the hottest temperatures of the year. Temperatures will be about 15 degrees above normal with locations in the Lower Treasure Valley reaching the upper 80s by the afternoon. Diurnal winds will remain light and variable throughout most of the region, with increasing westerly winds by the afternoon in the Lower Snake Plain. The High Resolution Ensemble Forecast (HREF) gives about a 60% chance of a thunderstorm over the border of Owyhee County, ID with Nevada.
605 AM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024 - A cold front is passing through central Illinois this morning, bringing showers and thunderstorms ahead of it. As the cold front approaches from the west this morning, some showers and thunderstorms push across central Illinois just ahead of it. There is secondary weak cold front that will pass through overnight, which could cause some showers to pop up in our far northern counties of the CWA. Once these fronts pass, a surface ridging pattern sets up to our southwest and a upper trough sets up to our northwest, trapping us in the middle.
Winds at the base of this trough (across the eastern Dakotas into southern Minnesota) will be very strong with speeds ranging from 40-50kts at 850mb to 70-80kts at 500mb. While afternoon convection is possible, the biggest question is how dry air in the low levels would impact the amount of rain actually making it to the surface with these winds.
534 AM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024 - Dry and hot conditions today, followed by a cooler airmass arriving on Thursday.
612 AM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024 - Dry and sunny conditions persist today and tomorrow, with the area under the influence of upper level high pressure.
427 AM MDT Wed Jun 5 2024 Winds will gradually decrease today with warmer and drier conditions following through the rest of the week with just a few showers and thunderstorms across Southwestern Montana during the afternoon. Given that enough of the models are still pointing towards a high wind threat this morning, I elected to let the high wind warning run its course through noon today.
631 AM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024 (Today through Thursday) Moving through the day today we will see a cold front begin to work closer to the area, but will remain to our northwest through Thursday morning.
244 PM MDT Wed Jun 5 2024 Current analysis shows a tight 500 mb height gradient with NW flow over MT and north WY with ridging over the Pac. The High Wind Warning for Custer, Fallon and Carter counties remains in effect.
359 PM EDT Wed Jun 5 2024 A cold front will bring showers and thunderstorms tonight.
Temperatures are mostly in the low to mid 90s north of the front with close to 100 along the Pecos and Rio Grande. Another round of showers and storms is expected across the higher terrain and adjacent plains Thursday afternoon.
Latest HRRR guidance has showers and storms developing over the interior later this afternoon/evening with the highest coverage over Polk and Highlands Counties with the west and east coast sea breeze collisions. This boundary will stall out north of the area through the end of the week, while weak high pressure ridges over south Florida.
Heat and humidity will be the main headline for Thursday as we continue to remain under the influence of high pressure.
220 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024 - A departing cold front will trigger scattered showers and thunderstorms across east-central Illinois this afternoon into early this evening. with the highest probability of rain focused along/east of I-57.
A nice afternoon is on tap as drier air filters in along with cooler temperatures.
Some of the high wind warning zones were cancelled earlier this morning, and the rest will be allowed to expire at 18Z (noon). Winds will gradually decrease today with warmer and drier conditions following through the rest of the week with just a few showers and thunderstorms across Southwestern Montana during the afternoon. Given that enough of the models are still pointing towards a high wind threat this morning, I elected to let the high wind warning run its course through noon today.
214 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024 - Cold front moves through tonight bringing drier, more comfortable weather for tomorrow.
1155 AM MDT Wed Jun 5 2024 The High Wind Warning for the following areas have been canceled: Wheatland County, Melville Foothills and Northern Sweetgrass. The High Wind Warnings in the west are still in effect until noon MDT today, with gusts up to 65mph.
With upper level ridging deepening over West Texas tomorrow, the forecast looks to remain dry with plenty of sunshine. Temperatures will range from the upper 90s in our eastern counties where more abundant moisture will continue to reside to around 105 across the Western Concho Valley where the 850 mb thermal ridge will begin to build back in.
/DC/ Storm chances will come to an end Thursday night as a cold front continues to push south across central MS.
The sounding also sampled a series of weak capping inversions owed to the continued weak presence of a mid- level ridge extending from the Gulf of Mexico eastward to the Florida Peninsula.
Those dew points have since mixed out some this afternoon into the low to mid 50s.
Pattern/synopsis: Pre-frontal trof shifting off the ne lower MI coast, with the most widespread convection. Actual, discontinuous cold front advancing toward I-75. Upper low shifts toward Lk Superior on Thursday, with another lobe of moisture and cooler temps aloft moving into northern MI. Thursday, a chance of morning showers will expand into numerous showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms in the afternoon, as diurnal heating interacts with cooler temps aloft and increasing moisture. Midlevel closed low pressure will start over northern Lake Huron at the start of the forecast period.
- Warm and humid conditions give way to cooler than normal temperatures for much of the next seven days. A pre-frontal trough is still bringing showers and thunderstorms to the region this afternoon, with the strongest storms now moving into northwest Ohio. Another line of convection is developing along the cold front in eastern Illinois.
209 PM MDT Wed Jun 5 2024 KEY MESSAGES: - Gusty west to northwest winds through this evening - Dry and warmer weather through the end of the week WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: A departing low pressure system moving across central Saskatchewan and a strong jet stream pushing across the northern Rockies will sustain strong winds through today.
This has been in northwestern North Dakota, although is forecast to move across the north through the evening mainly along and north of the Highway 2 corridor. Strong northwest flow looks to linger for Thursday as the upper low moves eastward.
1208 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024 (Today and tonight) A cold front will continue to push southward through the rest of Oklahoma and western north Texas today. Sometimes the wind shift and drier air never reaches the lower terrain of southeast Oklahoma.
1231 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024 - Dry and hot conditions today, followed by a cooler airmass arriving on Thursday.
This feature is embedded within northwesterly flow aloft created by a large scale western states ridge/eastern states trof pattern.
Tomorrow, another cold front will enter northern Oklahoma, gradually sinking southward through the day.
After this upper low moves southeast along a tongue of potential vorticity stretching to the great lakes region a mid level trough finally clears the low level jet east of our area. The lower freezing levels could help compensate for this however thus the 5% hail risk.
*Trending slightly warmer and less humid Thursday with risk of soaking showers and storms shifting into eastern PA *Cooler/more comfortable conditions Fri-Sun with a couple of passing showers or a t-storm mainly during the afternoons MCV clearly visible in sat and now radar imagery/loops is centered over KCBE at 19Z. The real/main cold front arrives in the W after midnight. The risk for SVR is on the low side, but the shear increases overnight. Main cold front should be into the central counties by sunrise Thurs. The threat for heavy rainfall should be just about over then, as the highest PWAT air will be to the east.
1244 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024 - Dry and sunny conditions persist today and tomorrow, with the area under the influence of upper level high pressure.
1159 AM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024 - Some of the hottest temperatures so far of the young summer season are expected Wednesday, as high pressure builds over SW KS.
1223 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024 - This morning's cold front will continue to produce the potential for showers and thunderstorms through this morning.
Water vapor imagery currently shows an upper low spinning over south central Manitoba with the upper energy that brought our storms last night, now moving through the Ohio Valley/Appalachians. At the surface, weak high pressure is centered over Northern OK/Southern KS with a weak cold front extending from southeast MO down into the Arklatex region. For tonight through Thu, northwest flow aloft is expected to remain in place with upper ridging over the Desert Southwest and upper troughing from Manitoba into the Great Lakes region. Rich moisture will be pushed fairly far south and will work back around the high into the Western KS.
132 PM PDT Wed Jun 5 2024 High pressure aloft will continue well above average high temperatures for inland areas with the heat peaking today or Thursday, depending on location.
1245 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024 - A cold front is passing through central Illinois this morning, bringing showers and thunderstorms ahead of it. 15z/10am surface analysis shows a cold front approaching the I-55 corridor. Latest runs of the HRRR/RAP are showing re-development along the cold front across east-central Illinois this afternoon as the atmosphere becomes modestly unstable with SBCAPEs peaking at 1500-2000J/kg. Barnes As the cold front approaches from the west this morning, some showers and thunderstorms push across central Illinois just ahead of it. There is secondary weak cold front that will pass through overnight, which could cause some showers to pop up in our far northern counties of the CWA. Once these fronts pass, a surface ridging pattern sets up to our southwest and a upper trough sets up to our northwest, trapping us in the middle.
923 AM PDT Wed Jun 5 2024 High pressure aloft will continue well above average high temperatures for inland areas with the heat peaking today or Thursday, depending on location.
High pressure will keep things dry tonight, though it will shift eastward.
Issued 1043 AM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024 The clouds are clearing at a steady pace from west to east this morning as drier air behind the cold front works through southern WI. After a day with mostly sunny skies, look for scattered showers and thunderstorms to arrive on a secondary cold front this evening. This activity should clear the area shortly after midnight, with cooler and drier air building in behind the front. A cooler and windy day is expected for Thursday, with highs generally in the mid to upper 60s.
There may be a few lingering showers across southern Indiana through the early overnight hours, but generally expect dry conditions through the night with clearing skies as high pressure begins to move in behind the exiting cold front.
1216 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024 (Today and tonight) Triple digit heat goes on hiatus today following last evening's modest cold front. Despite this improved low-level moisture, hefty inhibition aloft and cooler highs today will keep surface parcels capped. Northwest flow aloft with some passing mid and high clouds dries out tonight as H5 height rises jump 60 meters in 24 hours ahead of an upper high settling over New Mexico after midnight.
137 PM EDT Wed Jun 5 2024 Showers and thunderstorms will occur today ahead of a cold front crossing east through the region tonight with dry air found in its wake.
High temperatures will be in the upper 80s to low 90s near the coasts and mid to upper 90s over the interior sections, with peak heat indices in the low triple digits. Heading into Thursday, large scale troughing will push into the eastern U. With steepening mid-level lapse rates and lower freezing levels, there will be the potential for some storms to become strong to severe with large hail, primarily across the Lake Okeechobee and Palm Beach County areas. High temperatures will see a slight uptick with winds turning more southerly, allowing a vast majority of locations to reach the low to mid 90s.
Modest shower and thunderstorm chances persist today, as a ridge axis remains extended towards the local area from the western Atlantic. Have continued to undercut the NBM on PoPs, due to the ridge influence and persistent onshore flow.
1014 AM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024 - A cold front is passing through central Illinois this morning, bringing showers and thunderstorms ahead of it. 15z/10am surface analysis shows a cold front approaching the I-55 corridor. Latest runs of the HRRR/RAP are showing re-development along the cold front across east-central Illinois this afternoon as the atmosphere becomes modestly unstable with SBCAPEs peaking at 1500-2000J/kg. Barnes As the cold front approaches from the west this morning, some showers and thunderstorms push across central Illinois just ahead of it. There is secondary weak cold front that will pass through overnight, which could cause some showers to pop up in our far northern counties of the CWA. Once these fronts pass, a surface ridging pattern sets up to our southwest and a upper trough sets up to our northwest, trapping us in the middle.
A pattern change commences today as upper level ridging starts to build over the region.
(The rest of this afternoon ) A very seasonably pleasant day has transpired today as a weak cold front has exited the forecast area and clouds continue to clear from north-to-south. Skies will remain clear/mostly clear tonight as upper-level ridging builds over the Desert Southwest and northwest flow/subsidence dominates over the region. Mejia (Tonight through Wednesday) Another weak cold front will move southward through the forecast area on Thursday, pushing south of the Red River late Thursday night.
334 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024 - Temperatures may warm up into the 90s for many locations across the area this afternoon with a cold front coming later today.
132 PM MST Wed Jun 5 2024 High pressure will bring hotter temperatures over the next several days.
A cold front will push on through our region this evening. Dew points in the lower to middle 60s in the morning will drop into the 50s by late afternoon.
207 PM MDT Wed Jun 5 2024 KEY MESSAGES: - Gusty west to northwest winds through this evening - Dry and warmer weather through the end of the week WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: A departing low pressure system moving across central Saskatchewan and a strong jet stream pushing across the northern Rockies will sustain strong winds through today.
High pressure begins to build over the Northern Rockies today through this weekend.
A cold front will push through tonight bringing an end to rain chances.
which scoots through south-central and south Texas on the backside of the general trough across the Lower Mississippi Valley. All the activity should be over between 10 and 1 AM as the wave moves into the Lower Rio Grande Valley and beyond. though the potential for Heat Advisory is held to portions of the Rio Grande Plains/Big Bend region based on slightly lower temperatures in the low levels. A mostly clear, mainly calm, but plenty warm and humid night follows Thursday night as east side of expansing 500 mb ridge noses in.
Upper level analysis has an upper ridge over the western CONUS with a longwave trough extending southward through the Mississippi River Valley. A strong jet streak (100kt+) is rounding the ridge and diving into the Northern Great Plains (ern MT, ND, SD, MN, IA) in a northwest flow pattern. At the surface, an area of low pressure is centered over Manitoba and Ontario with high pressure over the Rockies. The low pressure system over Canada will gradually move east- southeast into the Great Lakes region by the end of the week while the ridge over the western CONUS continues to build.
642 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024 - A departing cold front will trigger scattered showers and thunderstorms across east-central Illinois this afternoon into early this evening. with the highest probability of rain focused along/east of I-57.
748 PM EDT Wed Jun 5 2024 A cold front will bring showers and thunderstorms tonight.
High pressure will move farther seaward late week, ahead of a series of weak cool fronts. Minimal PoPs today and tonight over the Atlantic waters will increase Thursday into Thursday evening, as an upper level trough crosses the area.
Warm and dry weather is expected through the end of the week as upper level ridging begins to set up across the West, with just a few isolated showers over the higher terrain south of I-90.
703 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024 A cold front will push through tonight bringing an end to rain chances.
1016 PM EDT Wed Jun 5 2024 A band of showers and thunderstorms overnight/Thursday morning with a cold front.
Another wave of convection ahead of a cold front late tonight.
High pressure builds over the region today, bringing a warming and drying trend to western Washington for the second half of the week.
617 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024 (The rest of this afternoon ) A very seasonably pleasant day has transpired today as a weak cold front has exited the forecast area and clouds continue to clear from north-to-south. Skies will remain clear/mostly clear tonight as upper-level ridging builds over the Desert Southwest and northwest flow/subsidence dominates over the region. Mejia (Tonight through Wednesday) Another weak cold front will move southward through the forecast area on Thursday, pushing south of the Red River late Thursday night.
958 PM EDT Wed Jun 5 2024 - Westerly wind gusts to 30 mph tomorrow - Slightly below normal temperatures this weekend with occasional rain chances The actual cold front was moving into the northwest forecast area this evening, with dewpoints falling to around 60 behind it, along with clearing skies. Kept low PoPs for showers for the remainder of the evening ahead of the cold front. Some upper energy/secondary cold front will approach the northwest forecast area late tonight. There may be a few lingering showers across southern Indiana through the early overnight hours, but generally expect dry conditions through the night with clearing skies as high pressure begins to move in behind the exiting cold front.
But, will continue to monitor for any strengthening, or, any additional development with the approaching cold front from the northwest.
301 PM MDT Wed Jun 5 2024 Warm and dry weather is expected through the end of the week as upper level ridging begins to set up across the West, with just a few isolated showers over the higher terrain south of I-90.
957 PM EDT Wed Jun 5 2024 A cold front will bring showers and thunderstorms tonight.
Warmer temperatures are anticipated tomorrow, along with isolated to scattered showers/thunderstorms in far southeast Oregon and southern Idaho Thursday afternoon and evening.
Surface analysis this afternoon puts the cold front responsible for yesterday's active weather over the central Great Lakes, with a secondary albeit weaker cold front developing over the Dakota/MN border, and a third also weak cold front sitting north of the international border. All these fronts emanate from a large low pressure center over western Ontario province. As the third front pushes through Thursday night, this will allow winds to diminish and usher in high pressure that will become the dominant weather feature through the rest of the forecast period. Temps will run mild through Thursday night as highs drop from the low to mid 70s today, to the low-mid 60s Thursday, and lows remain in the 50s.
345 PM PDT Wed Jun 5 2024 Quiet weather is expected over the next couple days as high pressure builds over the region.