Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Cooler-than-normal temperatures prevail through Tuesday night, becoming more seasonable midweek onwards. Strong mid-level ridging over the central third of the CONUS will keep conditions dry across Upper Michigan today. Warmest temperatures at this hour are over the Keweenaw, in the low 60s. A prolonged period of dry weather is expected through much of the coming week as mid level ridging over the Plains gradually shifts east into the Great Lakes. This ridging supports high pressure over northern Ontario, which builds southward into the Great Lakes tonight and then moves east over Ontario/Great Lakes gradually through mid week.
As the aforementioned trough begins to swing eastward, a drier northwest flow will focus moisture south of Waycross this afternoon, with a corridor of deeper moisture (PWATs near 2") across NE FL. Scattered to numerous showers will initiate this afternoon along a leftover prefrontal trough and the moisture boundary in place. Breezy westerly flow will enhance mixing this afternoon, allowing temps to soar back into the low/mid 90s. Despite some lingering debris cloud cover, temps will lower toward the low/mid 70s tonight inland and mid/upper 70s at the coast.
These will likely continue for a few hours as the forcing closer to the low center allows for some elevated convection. Backside of a large low pressure system continues to impact the area this afternoon as it gradually pushes eastward. Cloud cover and dewpoints remaining up a bit should keep lows in the low 60s across the area. Monday will be pleasant by late August standards, with scattered to broken fair weather cumulus developing and some breeziness due to the continued surface pressure gradient as the high moves in behind the departing low.
400 AM EDT Mon Aug 19 2024 High pressure and a dry airmass will be in place across the region through the rest of the week.
Latest 500hpa analysis shows upper lows spinning across the Great Lakes region. Broad high pressure centered over the OK/TX panhandle area with monsoonal moisture streaming northward on west side of ridge. Of particular note is the 700hpa theta-e ridge that sets up across northeast WY during the afternoon. As this ridge pushes east into the Black Hills during the 00z-06z Tuesday time frame. Tuesday through the remainder of the week will continue to be defined by the entrenched by the 500hpa ridge. with ridge riders bringing isolated/widely scattered chances for daily storms.
Cooler-than-normal temperatures prevail through Tuesday night, becoming more seasonable midweek onwards. Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb closed low off the Pacific NW coast, a 500 mb trough over the lower Great Lakes and eastern U. and a ridge over the Rockies and plains. Clouds have been stubborn to clear the highlands of the central U.
Thru the next few days, cooler and drier air is set to filter into the FA, w/ a pleasant week of cooler than normal temperatures in the mid to upper 80s, and dewpoint temperatures in the mid 50s to low 60s yielding comfortable condns for most areas.
Overnight lows will only fall into the lower 80s with a light south wind. An anomalously strong late summer ridge will remain in place to start the work week and an ever expanding low level thermal ridge will continue to strengthen on Monday. With a light westerly component to the low level wind flow, this should easily add 1-3 degrees to tomorrow's high temperatures. The center of the ridge axis will get nudged west a bit late Monday night into Tuesday as a weak back door cold front tries to push into North Texas. /NEW/ /Tuesday Night Onward/ A slightly cooler airmass will infiltrate from the northeast as a back-door front continues to work its way southwest through the region during the midweek stretch.
Temperatures will climb Monday and Tuesday before cooling the second half of the week and into the weekend as stronger troughing develops across the West. In Mohave County and nearby sections of Clark and Lincoln counties, the moisture will be in place, but slightly warmer temperatures aloft compared to yesterday should dampen thunderstorm coverage and intensity a bit. While the lower humidity may make it feel less uncomfortable in Las Vegas, the air temperature will be creeping up in response to the warming temperatures aloft plus the drier air at the surface.
(Today) Throughout the near term period, the local forecast area will remain situated beneath a belt of moderately strong (35-45 knot) NNW flow aloft between a longwave trough encompassing much of eastern North America and a subtropical ridge centered across the southern High Plains and adjacent portions of the Rockies. At the surface, a cold front (currently positioned across southern MS/AL/GA) will drift southward into the northern Gulf of Mexico before stalling, with light-moderate northerly flow continuing to advect a cooler/drier airmass into the region from an area of high pressure along the southwestern shore of Hudson Bay.
(Monday through Tuesday) A series of upper-level impulses riding south along the eastern periphery of the established upper-ridge across Texas will support periods of convection across mainly south Arkansas and north Louisiana later this morning. High pressure will build behind a cold front that will have been outflow driven south of the region today. Temperatures behind the front will be significantly cooler, with highs across southwest Arkansas in the lower 90s. Dry and stable conditions expected during the overnight hours tonight as the upper-level ridge remains established across Texas and drier air filters south across the region. On Tuesday, a touch of autumn will be felt across the majority of the ArkLaTex with highs ranging from the upper 80s across south Arkansas to the low to mid 90s elsewhere.
Cooler-than-normal temperatures prevail through Tuesday night, becoming more seasonable midweek onwards. Strong mid-level ridging over the central third of the CONUS will keep conditions dry across Upper Michigan today. Warmest temperatures at this hour are over the Keweenaw, in the low 60s.
1053 PM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024 (This evening through Tuesday) To begin the period, NW flow around the high pressure will bring additional thunderstorm chances to the state this afternoon and overnight. In fact, much drier and "cooler" air will make its way into the state setting up for a comfortable workweek. As mentioned above, "cooler" temperatures are expected to move into the state.
232 AM EDT Mon Aug 19 2024 A strong upper level trough will cross the area today and move offshore tonight. A cold front will move southeast through the region this afternoon.
A little farther north, upper troughing and a frontal boundary extends south along the eastern seaboard, through GA and into the Florida panhandle.
A North Atlantic ridge will move southward resulting in the winds shifting southwesterly.
318 AM EDT Mon Aug 19 2024 A strong upper level trough will cross the area today and move offshore tonight. A cold front will move southeast through the region this afternoon.
Canadian high pressure builds in behind the front on Tuesday, bringing dry conditions and cooler temperatures through the end of the week. SPC has the area east of the Blue Ridge in a marginal risk for severe weather this afternoon. Coverage will decrease in the evening as the frontal boundary moves farther offshore and high pressure builds in from the northwest.
Lows on Monday night are likely to drop into the low to mid 60s across the entire area.
A back door front will be moving into the area as well and this can be seen in the dew pt field lowering into the lower 70s to the NE while lower 80 dew pts are departing. But this boundary will be very slow in moving through so at best it will bisect the area keeping areas along and south of it in the heat and with the highest chance of sh/ts. Lower dew pts will continue to filter into the area tonight into Tuesday as well and should drop into the lower 60s for areas to the NE and lower 70s for the SW.
Cooler high temperatures only into the 70s are expected for Tuesday. Upper level ridging continues to build aloft, allowing for temperatures to continue the warming trend.
This heat ridge/dome, which is +1 to +3 STDEVs above normal, will result in high temperatures climbing into the upper 90s to lower 100s this afternoon. Factor in the dewpoints, which are in the low to mid 70s, and heat indices are expected to be elevated. Dry weather conditions should prevail through Tuesday due to strong subsidence from the aforementioned mid-level heat dome/ridge overhead.
Weak high pressure is in place over the eastern Gulf of Mexico with a weak frontal boundary over south Florida. Current temperatures are in the low to upper 80s with dew points in the low 60s to low 70s. Overnight low temperatures are expected to drop into the low to upper 70s with partly cloudy to mostly clear skies and light south-southwest winds.
* Building high pressure will usher in a preview of fall with cooler and dry weather through the end of the week. In the wake of storms, skies will clear in the southeast and low clouds develop in the northwest with cooler air flowing over the warmer Lake Erie waters. Fog is most likely in the Lower Susquehanna Valley where wet ground will be juxtaposed with clearing skies overnight. The bigger story will be much cooler temperatures working their way in as lower dewpoints pour in from the northwest. Cool temperatures aloft will keep plenty of clouds in place on Monday, resulting in chilly afternoon highs in the low 60s across the northwest and seasonable temperatures near 80 in the southeast. Plenty of sunshine, low humidity, and dry conditions prevail trough the week.
Sundayâs backdoor cold front will gradually push through this area by early-mid afternoon, but not before temperatures climb to or near triple digits. Latest model guidance and CAMs do not show any convection developing along the front at any time this afternoon, but forecast soundings show modest low-level convergence which may be capable of producing a few thunderstorms along and/or just behind the cold front.
Very hot conditions continue as the upper ridge continues to expand.
118 AM CDT Mon Aug 19 2024 (Tonight) With the cold front south of the area this evening, northwest winds gusting around 20kt at times has driven dew points down into the upper 50s to middle 60s.
Discussion: In the upper levels, a deep trough remains over the Eastern U. Northwesterly flow will continue across the region bringing scattered showers this afternoon and evening mainly in Northeast Tennessee, Southwest Virginia and the higher elevations of the East Tennessee Mountains. With deep layer northerly flow (high pressure over Canada), temps will be unseasonably cool today and tonight. Knoxville and Tri- Cities will be 5 and 9 degrees below normal for the high today, respectively.
Continued northwest flow on the eastern periphery of the greater high pressure center over the southwest will perpetuate cold air advection and usher in drier air to allow for below normal temperatures to continue for the next several days.
350 AM CDT Mon Aug 19 2024 - Quiet weather through midweek with high pressure over the region.
High pressure was in control across the Northland this afternoon with smoke leading to hazy skies along with diurnal cumulus. Some vorticity will be moving through the region overhead in association with an area of low pressure southeast of Hudson Bay, but drier air near the surface and a lack of forcing will keep things dry. Smoke aloft will keep hazy skies in place for Monday and perhaps into Tuesday with the upper level ridge building in.
The upper high is forecast to redevelop over eastern New Mexico tonight all the while a NW-SE stationary front (currently bisecting OK) mobilizes southwest and reaches our northeast zones before daybreak ahead of cooler and muggy E-NE winds.
322 AM CDT Mon Aug 19 2024 Happy Monday! This morning, the region remains on the southwestern edge of an upper trough axis that will continue to dig into the southeast CONUS, while a an expansive high pressure remains to our west, over the Southern Plains. Temperatures will top out in the lower 90s this afternoon, which will be a pleasant change from triple digit highs over the last several days. Expected temperatures in the lower 90s and dewpoints in the 50s/60s over the next several days.
- Cooler on Tuesday with a better chance of more widespread, but still mostly light, rain showers. Have also seen increasing cloud cover building in from the west, and at least a little bit of mixing in the lowest few hundred meters helping to mitigate a more widely spread fog event. The rain showers have been increasing in coverage in western zones after 3 AM in advance of a weak short wave trough. The afternoon should be dry for most everyone with increasing sunshine bringing temperatures into the low 80s (although a more persistent cloud deck would limit high temps). Monday night into early Tuesday features another short wave trough riding over the Plains ridge axis.
Quiet forecast for the week as high pressure builds in at the surface, and the mid level trough responsible for this weekends shower and thunderstorm activity shifts slightly eastward.
1226 AM CDT Mon Aug 19 2024 (Tonight through Monday night) Key Messages: - Moderate to major risk of heat-related illnesses Monday A mid to upper level ridge will continue to hold firm over Texas promoting above normal temperatures.
Deep amplified trough in the eastern CONUS today. Models are indicating short wave troughs will rotate through the base of the long wave trough this afternoon and tonight. Temperature guidance is a little cooler than yesterday with highs expected near 90. Overnight lows a little cooler in the mid 60s to near 70 degrees. Upper trough continues to linger over the eastern seaboard, while surface front slides off to the east and is forecast to be replaced by high pressure. As a result, some cooler temps and drier air are expected to filter into the region for midweek.
A small convective system associated with a strong moist/instability axis ahead of a southward moving cold front is pushing quickly southward along the MS River.
1215 AM CDT Mon Aug 19 2024 (This evening through Monday) The upper ridge is expected to continue spinning directly overhead today and tomorrow. With the placement in the dome of high pressure and strongest subsidence, dry air is expected to dominate aloft. Tomorrow's temperatures are on repeat and given the recent overachievement of temperatures over the NBM yesterday and so far today, highs were bumped warmer for tomorrow. A few records may be tied or broken tomorrow with the high forecast to be 103 degrees in Lubbock and a previous record of 103 degrees (set back in 1994). Additionally, the high in Childress is forecast for 109 degrees with a previous record of 109 degrees (set back in 1943).
Omega block pattern continues across the lower 48 with troughs on both coasts. Short wave currently over Utah into western Wyoming is expected to crest the upper ridge today and spill southward on Tuesday, but limited amounts of low level moisture will curtail precipitation potential though the increased cloud cover will keep temperatures 5-10 degrees below normal.
(Today through Tuesday) The center of the 599 dam Subtropical Ridge at 500 MB remains over New Mexico, however the axis shifts from over Northern Texas today to over South Central Texas by Tuesday. Subsidence under the Ridge and a drier than normal airmass should keep rain out of the forecast.
As we head into the overnight hours, some slightly cooler/drier air is beginning to work into the region from the north bringing a reprieve to the heat experienced over much of the last week.
(Today through Tuesday afternoon) An anomalously strong mid and upper ridge will remain overhead over the next several days. A repeat is expected Tuesday as even the hopeful NAM keeps any cold front north of our area now.
High pressure will build in from the north and remain in place through the remainder of the short term period.
945 AM EDT Mon Aug 19 2024 High pressure and a dry airmass will be in place across the region through the rest of the week.
553 AM CDT Mon Aug 19 2024 - Quiet weather through midweek with high pressure over the region.
640 AM CDT Mon Aug 19 2024 (Monday through Tuesday) A series of upper-level impulses riding south along the eastern periphery of the established upper-ridge across Texas will support periods of convection across mainly south Arkansas and north Louisiana later this morning. High pressure will build behind a cold front that will have been outflow driven south of the region today. Temperatures behind the front will be significantly cooler, with highs across southwest Arkansas in the lower 90s. Dry and stable conditions expected during the overnight hours tonight as the upper-level ridge remains established across Texas and drier air filters south across the region. On Tuesday, a touch of autumn will be felt across the majority of the ArkLaTex with highs ranging from the upper 80s across south Arkansas to the low to mid 90s elsewhere.
Otherwise, dry and seasonably cool conditions are expected through Tuesday (and majority of the week) with high temperatures in the mid to upper 70s and lows in the low to mid-50s (upper 50s in Chicago).
Temperatures will peak a few degrees warmer, with humidity falling back below 15 percent east of the Divide.
There remains some uncertainty on temperatures today, though the margin between the warmer statistical/MOS and colder raw model guidance is only a few degrees. We will nudge toward warmer statistical guidance given the pattern.
626 AM CDT Mon Aug 19 2024 (Today through Tuesday night) A strong 500mb high pressure system is holding over the Panhandles with model agreement not expecting it to move off for the rest of the week. This high pressure system will keep the upper-level flow pretty stagnate for the time being, which will allow the Panhandles to continue to heat up each afternoon.
After an active few days, our high pressure center that has been near Amarillo will wobble about 300 miles westward over the next few days.
Scattered showers are possible throughout the day as we remain in a troughing pattern following the frontal passage this weekend. Discussion: In the upper levels, a deep trough remains over the Eastern U. Northwesterly flow will continue across the region bringing scattered showers this afternoon and evening mainly in Northeast Tennessee, Southwest Virginia and the higher elevations of the East Tennessee Mountains. With deep layer northerly flow (high pressure over Canada), temps will be unseasonably cool today and tonight. Knoxville and Tri- Cities will be 5 and 9 degrees below normal for the high today, respectively.
603 AM CDT Mon Aug 19 2024 (Today through Tuesday afternoon) An anomalously strong mid and upper ridge will remain overhead over the next several days. A repeat is expected Tuesday as even the hopeful NAM keeps any cold front north of our area now.
An upper level trough will bring an increase chance of precipitation late in the week. A deep upper trough is parked off the WA/OR coast. The weakening trough will allow for a slight warmup, but temperatures will remain below climatological norms. A NE Pacific upper low is then forecast to quickly deepen and dive southward kicking the trough eastward.
Canadian high pressure builds in behind the front on Tuesday, bringing dry conditions and cooler temperatures through the end of the week. Mid-morning update: A few isolated showers continue to move eastward this morning across areas along and west of the Blue Ridge. As the departing cold front continues to move further offshore, the deep trough will swing eastward later today, spawning some showers and thunderstorms, especially further east. SPC has the area east of the Blue Ridge in a marginal risk for severe weather this afternoon. Coverage will decrease in the evening as the frontal boundary moves farther offshore and high pressure builds in from the northwest.
Overall, the forecast for today remains the same with showers and thunderstorms expected to develop for the afternoon as the cold front continues its way through. As the aforementioned trough begins to swing eastward, a drier northwest flow will focus moisture south of Waycross this afternoon, with a corridor of deeper moisture (PWATs near 2") across NE FL. Scattered to numerous showers will initiate this afternoon along a leftover prefrontal trough and the moisture boundary in place. Breezy westerly flow will enhance mixing this afternoon, allowing temps to soar back into the low/mid 90s. Despite some lingering debris cloud cover, temps will lower toward the low/mid 70s tonight inland and mid/upper 70s at the coast.
554 AM EDT Mon Aug 19 2024 High pressure and a dry airmass will be in place across the region through the rest of the week.
629 AM EDT Mon Aug 19 2024 Mountain showers and thunderstorms are expected this afternoon, before dry high pressure builds in.
Ensemble guidance continues to show an eastern Pacific upper air trough in place through the middle of the week allowing for the southwesterly flow over the CWA to persist.
559 AM CDT Mon Aug 19 2024 (Today through Tuesday Night) A strong mid-upper level ridge will continue to create dangerously hot conditions across SE Texas Today and Tuesday.
Even cooler temperatures, breezy/gusty winds with showers and mountain thunderstorms possible late this week. The area remains between an upper level trough centered off the Pacific Northwest and upper level ridging centered over the Rocky Mountains, with dry weather through mid week. The trough drifts a little northward today, with the upper level ridging building in a little further over the area.
925 AM EDT Mon Aug 19 2024 Mountain showers and thunderstorms are expected this afternoon, before dry high pressure builds in.
642 AM EDT Mon Aug 19 2024 A strong upper level trough will cross the area today and move offshore tonight. A cold front will move southeast through the region this afternoon.
657 AM CDT Mon Aug 19 2024 Happy Monday! This morning, the region remains on the southwestern edge of an upper trough axis that will continue to dig into the southeast CONUS, while a an expansive high pressure remains to our west, over the Southern Plains. Temperatures will top out in the lower 90s this afternoon, which will be a pleasant change from triple digit highs over the last several days. Expected temperatures in the lower 90s and dewpoints in the 50s/60s over the next several days.
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Pattern for the week consists of an upper low/trough off the Pacific Northwest and an upper ridge over the high plains. Expectation is for the ridge to be pushes eastward with the deepening western trough.
620 AM CDT Mon Aug 19 2024 (Today through Tuesday) The center of the 599 dam Subtropical Ridge at 500 MB remains over New Mexico, however the axis shifts from over Northern Texas today to over South Central Texas by Tuesday. Subsidence under the Ridge and a drier than normal airmass should keep rain out of the forecast.
1031 AM EDT Mon Aug 19 2024 A strong upper level trough will cross the area today and move offshore tonight. A cold front will move southeast through the region this afternoon.
In the upper levels, there is a deep trough that extends across much of the Eastern Seaboard. The Tampa metro area and I-4 corridor will be between these areas of precipitation and this is where the lower chances for precipitation will feature today. Highs will climb into the low to mid 90s areawide with peak heat indices values forecast to range from 103-108 degrees. A little farther north, upper troughing and a frontal boundary extends south along the eastern seaboard, through GA and into the Florida panhandle.
(Rest of Today) High pressure will continue slowly sinking south today as an upper trough axis digs south over the Appalachians, bringing cooler and dry conditions to the Tennessee Valley. Have adjusted highs slightly cooler this afternoon, now topping out in the lower 80s across NE AL and southern middle TN, but warmer near 90 degrees for areas west of I-65.