Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1117 PM CST Thu Nov 7 2024 (Tonight through Friday night) Key Messages: -High Rip Current Risk and Minor Coastal Flooding Continue -Coastal Flood Advisory Extended through 6 PM Friday With a northward advancing warm front, above normal moisture (PWAT's 1.
1004 PM EST Thu Nov 7 2024 Dry weather settles in area wide on Friday as high pressure moves into the Great Lakes region.
Expect daytime highs generally in the low to mid 80s with overnight lows generally in the upper 60s.
Shower activity over Vancouver Island will slowly shift southward towards western Washington tonight and into Friday morning as an upper level trough inches closer.
A cold front has progressed well to our southeast, to western NC. However, advection of drier air behind the front has been weak in the lowest levels and low clouds linger over most of the forecast area, with clearing only making it to near I-64 so far. At the same time, upper level ridging will build in from the west, arriving tonight. As the upper level ridge crests over the area tonight, high clouds should begin to spill over the ridge ahead of the next weather system. Cold air pooling in valleys will lead to typical ridge/valley differences. Ridging at all levels will move to our east on Saturday and a stacked low pressure system will move northeast over the middle of the CONUS.
Water vapor imagery overlaid with 500 mb heights shows a strong upper level low over New Mexico this morning with a mid level speed max rotating through the base of the trough across northern Mexico into western Texas. The aforementioned upper low over New Mexico and associated trough will eject to the northeast today, with the upper low progged to be centered over the TX/OK panhandles by late afternoon. Widespread showers should finally overspread the area from SW to NE overnight tonight into early Saturday morning as the low occludes over western Kansas and the occluded front lifts northward toward Missouri.
Overall, expect dry conditions today, although, some of the high-res guidance is trying to show an isolated shower or two later today.
248 AM MST Fri Nov 8 2024 KEY MESSAGES: - A ridge of high pressure will persist through Saturday, leading to areas of valley fog and stratus.
As of early this morning, a powerful, deep layer trough is lumbering eastward across the southern Rockies. Widespread light to moderate rainfall is expected to continue for much of the day across much of the forecast area as the deep-layer trough progresses very slowly eastward.
Some localized spots across the rural and higher elevation desert communities of South-Central AZ may touch the freezing mark this morning, though with much less coverage than what was observed early yesterday morning. Ensembles remain in excellent agreement that the upper low over New Mexico will exit the Desert Southwest over the next 24-36 hours, with weak ridging building in its wake this weekend.
The closed upper low across the southwest CONUS is inching eastward this morning with a band of precipitation lifting north across Kansas. This band of precipitation continues to lift north through the morning with a break in rain expected later this morning into the early afternoon as the closed low stalls, takes on a negative tilt, and becomes vertically stacked. The best push of showers and storms comes this evening into early Saturday as the low finally ejects northeast across the Plains. Eastern Kansas has a higher likelihood of seeing clearing skies by the afternoon and highs will warm into the low 60s. In areas that clouds hold on through much of the day, highs will only reach the low 50s.
High pressure over the Great Lakes will push E/SE and off the NJ coast while building down the eastern seaboard. Forecast soundings indicate just enough moisture present in the lowest 1 km to produce shallow, isolated showers that approach the coast from time to time. A trough of low pressure is forecast to be steered westward around the southern periphery of the Atlc high pressure across the SE Bahamas and Cuba this weekend, then NW across the Florida Straits Mon. Reinforcing high pressure will build down the eastern seaboard this weekend and tighten the pressure gradient, increasing winds 15-20 kt Sat and near 20 knots Sat night/Sun.
Slightly cooler temperatures should arrive after midweek.
Intense upper low over New Mexico early this morning is expected to eject to the north and east this afternoon and tonight as strong mid-level jet spreads from the base to the eastern periphery of system. With the upper low progressing more northward than eastward tonight, no wrap around precipitation is expected.
(Today through Saturday) Pleasant and warm weather is on tap across South Florida to end the work week and start the weekend thanks to mid-level ridging sitting over the region. The ridge will usher in a generally dry and warm airmass, with enough low-level moisture brought in by easterly flow to support a few showers over the Atlantic waters and East Coast metro. High temperatures will be in the mid to upper 80s each day, with heat indices in the low 90s. Tonight's lows will range from the low 70s over the interior and Gulf Coast, with mid 70s across the East Coast metro.
653 AM EST Fri Nov 8 2024 High pressure over the Plains will extend toward the Ohio Valley today, before shifting east across the Great Lakes on Saturday.
520 AM CST Fri Nov 8 2024 (Today and Tonight) A strong closed upper low over New Mexico will lift north northeast to near the Colorado/Kansas/Nebraska border area by late tonight.
A big upper low is centered over New Mexico and extends northward over Wyoming. Showers associated with lift from the upper low are moving northward across north central Kansas into south central Nebraska. The upper low will lift north northeast this afternoon into this evening. The upper low will move over western Kansas tonight with temperatures cooling into the mid 30s to mid 40s. The upper low will continue moving northward on Saturday over Nebraska with rain decreasing across the area. Rain chances end Saturday night as the upper low moves northeast of the area.
DISCUSSION: Split flow pattern over western North America with a closed upper low centered on New Mexico and a ridge extending from Montana northward. As the low transitions through the central plains over the weekend, it could approach close enough to bring some precipitation into southeast Montana.
514 AM CST Fri Nov 8 2024 (Today through Saturday Night) To begin the period, an upper level low is located across the Four Corners region and will continue to push off towards the northeast. This low pressure system is expected to drag a cold front across the state late in the period. Highs are expected to be in the lower 60s to mid 70s with overnight lows dropping into the upper 40s to mid 60s.
Satellite pictures are showing the upper closed low circulation over southwest/south central New Mexico at this time. Models maintain decent consistency with the track of the upper system for the first two periods, with the upper low center tracking northward right along the eastern Colorado border from 00Z through 12Z tonight. Snow will be decreasing from west to east Saturday morning as the low moves eastward. At this point it doesn't look like much of a high wind threat, but the higher mountains and wave prone foothills spots will likely see a period with 40-60 mph gusts.
531 AM EST Fri Nov 8 2024 Dry weather settles in area wide through Saturday as high pressure moves through the Great Lakes region.
Significant deep layer moisture transport continues across the Plains ahead of a closed low over the southwest US with clouds continuing to surge northward across central and western Nebraska. While temperatures across northeast Nebraska around the Niobrara valley will be at or slightly above normal today, the approaching low will keep cool air locked in across southwest Nebraska where highs today will only be in the lower 40s and lows tonight will range from the upper 30s southwest to lower 40s northeast.
Broad high pressure across the western North Atlantic is filling back in behind.
High pressure continues to clear skies and bring chilly overnight temperatures.
The low pressure system responsible for the most recent bout of winter weather is currently located near the southern Arizona/New Mexico border.
508 AM CST Fri Nov 8 2024 (Today through Saturday) Surface winds have shifted to the north now that a cold front has pushed east of Middle Tennessee. So temperatures are nominally cooler and widespread cloudiness and mist/fog blankets the mid state early this morning. We can expect some clearing this afternoon, but the next active weather system will move in Saturday, with even better rain chances and higher QPF values than the now-departed cold front produced.
401 AM EST Fri Nov 8 2024 High pressure over the Plains will extend toward the Ohio Valley today, before shifting east across the Great Lakes on Saturday.
Expect chilly to cold morning low temperatures and patchy frost in the lower elevations and valleys, possibly nearing a record low or two, otherwise it'll be milder at elevation in the hills and mountains this morning. (Today and tonight) Under a clear sky, light wind and low surface dewpoint temperatures (lingering desert dry air mass, a low amount of water vapor) air temperatures are cooling to near or below Nov 8th normal lows across the lower elevations and valley floors. At elevation in the hills and mountains it's a different story, a lower level temperature inversion under 500 mb ridging is resulting in milder temperatures mainly in the 50s however there are a few lower 60s noted at elevation in Big Sur.
(Today and Tonight) A strong closed upper low over New Mexico will lift north northeast to near the Colorado/Kansas/Nebraska border area by late tonight.
High pressure builds in from the north with dry weather into Saturday.
556 AM EST Fri Nov 8 2024 (Today through Saturday) Pleasant and warm weather is on tap across South Florida to end the work week and start the weekend thanks to mid-level ridging sitting over the region. The ridge will usher in a generally dry and warm airmass, with enough low-level moisture brought in by easterly flow to support a few showers over the Atlantic waters and East Coast metro. High temperatures will be in the mid to upper 80s each day, with heat indices in the low 90s. Tonight's lows will range from the low 70s over the interior and Gulf Coast, with mid 70s across the East Coast metro.
A nearly cutoff large upper low currently near the AZ/NM border kicks northeast across the central Plains on Saturday as it is absorbed into the mean prevailing flow aloft. Upper low matures as it moves into eastern Nebraska by late afternoon with a well defined dry slot wrapping around the southern periphery of the system, which will eventually dry out much of the area by mid to late day. The exception would be portions of western into northern Iowa which will reside under a decaying mid-level deformation zone as the upper low begins to occlude, and support at least scattered light rain shower activity into Saturday night. The kinematic parameter space is rather impressive by mid to late Saturday afternoon with the upper low and surface reflection in a climatologically favored corridor for cool season severe weather episodes in our area.
and Saturday Sunny and mild weather will continue today, despite the arrival of a weak backdoor cold front during the late afternoon hours. The clouds and a southeast winds from Lake Michigan will make for temperatures a few degrees cooler than today.
1015 AM EST Fri Nov 8 2024 Dry weather settles in area wide through Saturday as high pressure moves through the Great Lakes region.
A closed upper low was spinning over NM per the 20Z water vapor imagery. At the surface, low pressure was analyzed along the Red river in southwest OK. Meanwhile surface ridging to the north and east of the area has delayed the bigger push of moisture north. For tonight better moisture and forcing for vertical motion is progged to lift across the forecast area as the low pressure system pivots northeast.
(This afternoon through Saturday) Pleasant and warm weather is expected across South Florida to end the work week and start the weekend thanks to mid-level ridging hanging over the region. The ridge will usher in a generally dry and warm airmass (12Z sounding PWAT 1. High temperatures will be in the mid to upper 80s each day, with heat indices in the low 90s. Tonight's lows will range from the low 70s over the interior and Gulf Coast, with mid 70s across the East Coast metro.
Accordingly, widespread showers and thunderstorms will continue into the overnight hours until the cold front sweeps through, ending storm chances from west to east. Behind the cold front, conditions will rapidly improve as cool and dry air moves in.
As mentioned below, the upper-level trough is now centered over New Mexico. The upper-level low has crossed into New Mexico as of this morning, lingering showers and clouds over eastern Arizona will continue to dissipate as the low continue to move eastward. A couple flurries over the higher terrain, namely the Chuska and White Mountains, could be possible through the early afternoon, but any amounts should be light.
331 PM EST Fri Nov 8 2024 A mainly dry cold front will move through tonight bringing cooler and drier conditions for the weekend as high pressure briefly builds in from the north.
Mesoanalysis indicates that surface obs are running about 5 to 10 deg F cooler this hour when compared to 24 hours ago. Convective showers are likely through the afternoon, with PoPs increasing into the evening as a cold front approaches from the west. Vsby reductions are likely as well, with the convection slowly marching E along a secondary weak cold front that will eventually become stationary by Saturday afternoon from SW AR into extreme NW LA/Deep E TX.
1250 PM MST Fri Nov 8 2024 KEY MESSAGES: - High pressure will continue into Saturday.
147 PM MST Fri Nov 8 2024 - Mainly warmer and dry conditions into the weekend. High pressure over the region will persist through Saturday. An upper level low currently over New Mexico will move northeast and bring a small chance (10-30%) of a tenth of an inch of rain for southeast Carter County late Saturday afternoon.
209 PM EST Fri Nov 8 2024 A weak cold front will move through the area overnight.
108 PM EST Fri Nov 8 2024 Gradually increasing clouds but still dry weather will dominate the first part of the weekend as high pressure passes through the lower Great Lakes and Mid Ohio Valley.
The strong upper level low continues it's slow churn over New Mexico this afternoon. Mid-level water vapor reveals and extensive plume of moisture spread across the Central Plains ahead of the trough, with mid to high clouds continuing to increase in coverage through the day across the region. Forecast soundings suggest a steady saturation of the BL through the evening hours with gradually lowering cloud decks as the trough lifts north-northeast along the western high Plains of Kansas. Widespread showers will overspread into the region through 11 PM to 1 AM as the low occludes over western Kansas and the occluded front lifts across the MO/KS border.
(Today and tonight) A dynamic mid-latitude cyclone is located over the High Plains today. Aided by the dry slot, a cold frontal push is expected across much of our area this afternoon.
A narrow axis of elevated instability is also noted along the Highway 75 corridor where some embedded thunderstorms have developed. The main wave of showers and thunderstorms is set to arrive from west to east by mid to late afternoon as the upper low shifts northeastward into the Plains and a Pacific frontal boundary sweeps across the region.
Expect drizzle to end and patchy fog to lift by this afternoon with improving conds as drier NE flow continues to erode the low clouds across the Mid-South. Slightly cooler temperatures should arrive after midweek.
204 PM EST Fri Nov 8 2024 A weak cold front will move through the area overnight.
Near the surface, an area of low pressure is moving north through northwest Texas. Based on the latest radar trends and CAMs, widespread rain will begin to gradually taper off across southern portions of southwest Kansas early this evening with rain dissipating south to north overnight as the SREF shows the closed upper low lifting northeast across western Kansas late tonight, and onward up into eastern Nebraska Saturday and the Upper Midwest Saturday night, giving way to weak ridging aloft building in across the Intermountain West.
Temperatures across the island chain are in the lower to mid 80s. From synopsis, as Hurricane Rafael continues to progress away from the western Florida Keys marine zones, and high pressure slowly weakens in the North Atlantic, east to southeast breezes will modestly slacken today through Saturday.
High pressure in the short term will lead to dry weather and afternoon highs trending warmer through the weekend.
(Rest of today through Saturday) A surface boundary between high pressure to our N and a cold front to our S has been streaming low clouds and drizzle over Middle TN this morning. Depending on how fast these clouds can move out, highs today should climb into the low 70s. Overnight lows will be slightly cooler in the low 50s, even upper 40s possible across our TN/KY bordering counties and the Upper Cumberland.
Skies clearing this afternoon with a drier and slightly cooler but still mild air mass building in from the northwest. Much cooler night tonight with clear to partly cloudy skies. Discussion: A cooler drier airmass is moving into the western and northern part of the eastern Tennessee Valley this afternoon behind cold front. In the upper levels, ridging is holding over the southeast this afternoon and continues strong overnight tonight.
1017 AM EST Fri Nov 8 2024 High pressure over the Plains will extend toward the Ohio Valley today, before shifting east across the Great Lakes on Saturday.
Mild and wet weather will continue this weekend as a cold front tracks across the region. Another cold front will move through midweek with chances for showers followed by more seasonable temperatures to finish the week.
A low pressure system exiting Colorado this afternoon will slowly progress northeastward, bringing chances of rain to the Northland through Saturday afternoon and evening.
1148 AM CST Fri Nov 8 2024 (Today through Saturday Night) To begin the period, an upper level low is located across the Four Corners region and will continue to push off towards the northeast. This low pressure system is expected to drag a cold front across the state late in the period. Highs are expected to be in the lower 60s to mid 70s with overnight lows dropping into the upper 40s to mid 60s.
1256 PM EST Fri Nov 8 2024 High pressure over the Plains will extend toward the Ohio Valley today, before shifting east across the Great Lakes on Saturday.
(Through Saturday) Upper ridging will prevail through the near term as a large upper low treks northeast across the central plains. Generally east- southeasterly flow as a result of high pressure centered over the great lakes will continue gradually pumping more robust tropical moisture across the region as Rafael churns to the south of us.
258 PM EST Fri Nov 8 2024 Gradually increasing clouds but still dry weather will dominate the first part of the weekend as high pressure passes through the lower Great Lakes and Mid Ohio Valley.
228 PM EST Fri Nov 8 2024 A cold front is moving into central NY this afternoon bringing cooler weather and clouds through this evening as it slowly makes its way towards Northeast PA tonight.
Upper level analysis places low over northeast New Mexico nudging into the panhandles of Texas and Oklahoma, while ridging to the north of the low remains over our area. Speaking of our area, mainly clear skies continue, though some high clouds have now lifted well north of the aforementioned upper low into our far south. For tonight, upper low starts to eject northeastward into the central plains. Precipitation wrapping over the low will lift primarily over southern potions of our area during the day, with chances remaining into the evening then tapering as the low continues its lift. Dry weather then expected through the rest of the holiday weekend as the low continues its departure.
Afternoon water vapor imagery shows a deep upper-level trough becoming cut off over the western CONUS as a ridge builds into the Midwest. This low will begin occluding tonight as it moves into the Midwest, though forcing from the occluded front, a low-level jet, and upper-level divergence will support a swath of scattered to numerous showers and possibly an isolated thunderstorm that will enter central Missouri during the early morning hours.
Strong high pressure over the Great Lakes will move southeast through the weekend.
529 PM CST Fri Nov 8 2024 (Rest of today through Saturday) A surface boundary between high pressure to our N and a cold front to our S has been streaming low clouds and drizzle over Middle TN this morning. Depending on how fast these clouds can move out, highs today should climb into the low 70s. Overnight lows will be slightly cooler in the low 50s, even upper 40s possible across our TN/KY bordering counties and the Upper Cumberland.
Quiet night as we await the incoming low pressure system later tonight, bringing the rain Saturday afternoon. Upper level analysis places low over northeast New Mexico nudging into the panhandles of Texas and Oklahoma, while ridging to the north of the low remains over our area. Speaking of our area, mainly clear skies continue, though some high clouds have now lifted well north of the aforementioned upper low into our far south. For tonight, upper low starts to eject northeastward into the central plains. Precipitation wrapping over the low will lift primarily over southern potions of our area during the day, with chances remaining into the evening then tapering as the low continues its lift. Dry weather then expected through the rest of the holiday weekend as the low continues its departure.
In return, and with a warm front slowly lifting northward towards the I- 20 corridor this afternoon, strong gulf moisture transport in advance of the cold front will support showers and thunderstorms starting this evening and overnight across East Texas and Southeastern Oklahoma, before advancing eastward into Louisiana and Arkansas through early Saturday morning. As mentioned in previous discussions, the aforementioned cold front will slow in forward speed and stall across the eastern zones of the SHV CWA by the mid to late morning hours of Saturday. At the same time, TC Rafael will be at it's closest proximity to the Louisiana coastline as it meanders under a ridge of high pressure aloft, keeping the TC in the central GoM.
648 PM EST Fri Nov 8 2024 (Through Saturday) Upper ridging will prevail through the near term as a large upper low treks northeast across the central plains. Generally east- southeasterly flow as a result of high pressure centered over the great lakes will continue gradually pumping more robust tropical moisture across the region as Rafael churns to the south of us.
654 PM EST Fri Nov 8 2024 A mainly dry cold front will move through tonight bringing cooler and drier conditions for the weekend as high pressure briefly builds in from the north.
- Lows below or around freezing across much of the western half of the area tonight and this would be the first freeze of the season for some areas.
Otherwise high clouds are beginning to increase from the west ahead of the upper low that will bring us some weather tomorrow night. Skies clearing this afternoon with a drier and slightly cooler but still mild air mass building in from the northwest. Much cooler night tonight with clear to partly cloudy skies. Discussion: A cooler drier airmass is moving into the western and northern part of the eastern Tennessee Valley this afternoon behind cold front. In the upper levels, ridging is holding over the southeast this afternoon and continues strong overnight tonight.
Tropical deep layer moisture revealed in TPW satellite imagery is pooling over the northwest Gulf of Mexico, where it is poised to surge north ahead of an approaching closed low approaching the MS valley.