Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1220 AM CDT Thu Oct 17 2024 Looking back at upstream min temps behind the cold front last night and at the better radiational cooling potential for tonight, there were some slight downward adjustments in min temps across our area tonight. As high pressure builds in, we'll begin to see the wind diminish, and wind Thursday should be a good bit lighter than it was today. We are lowering the elevated wild fire danger threat to limited for Thursday based on the low RH forecast with lighter wind. A few locations could dip into the mid 30s over northeast portions of the area, making patchy frost possible, but significant frost is not expected with all lows well above freezing.
(Today through Friday) A trough and embedded upper low move eastward off the East Coast today, while mid-level ridging moves eastward into the area today. At the surface, high pressure over the eastern CONUS will strengthen to 1034mb by Friday. Frost is likely in most sheltered locations across the north and in the Black Belt this morning, and some of the typically cooler northeastern valleys will probably briefly drop below freezing. Temperatures will be a few degrees warmer tonight, but with ideal radiational cooling conditions expect some frost mainly in the northeastern valleys as well as the Black Belt.
At 125am, temps were in the low to mid 30s across central and southeast IL, continuing their gradual decline as clear skies and light-calm winds favor optimal radiational cooling through sunrise. While forecast soundings suggest mixing won't be particularly deep as subsidence beneath the building ridge of high pressure maintains a temp inversion around 900-925mb this afternoon, even mixing up to this level could bring enough dry air to the surface to result in dewpoints in the 20s - lowest across the west. If we expected 20 ft winds around 20 mph or frequent 10m (ASOS anemometer height) gusts of 25+, it'd be a different story given the low humidity. Since we'll be starting the day a few degrees warmer, radiational warming and continued southerly flow will result in high temps 2-4 degF warmer than today with some spots touching 70.
Pressure gradient will continue to relax today as the high moves eastward; thus, winds will remain on the light side. Another chilly night is anticipated, though temperatures will be a few degrees warmer.
400 AM EDT Thu Oct 17 2024 Low pressure will slowly drift away from the coast today, while Canadian high pressure will expand from the middle MS Valley to the middle Atlantic through the end of the week. A potent mid/upper low is currently centered over NE NC. So temperatures in many spots are still in the lower-to-mid-40s, with one area of mid-to-upper-30s over the western Piedmont south of the Triad. The mid/upper low will move offshore and NE into the Atlantic today and tonight. High temperatures will be slightly warmer than yesterday but still below average, in the upper-50s to mid-60s. High-amplitude ridging aloft will move farther east towards the Eastern Seaboard, resulting in another day of sunny skies and increased temperatures with highs in the mid-to- upper-60s.
325 AM EDT Thu Oct 17 2024 A prolonged period of dry weather starts today as high pressure builds over the region.
205 AM EDT Thu Oct 17 2024 High pressure will build into the region from the west tonight. A ridge will continue building into the region this afternoon allowing for enough warming to start shutting off rain chances through this evening. Thursday night will feature high pressure becoming centered over the Ohio Valley with clear and dry conditions. High pressure will be in control to end the week and start the weekend. Lows Friday night will still be a bit cool, with lows in the upper 30s to lower 40s across northwest OH and near the lake but in the low to mid 30s from interior eastern OH into interior PA. Some spots out east may dip below freezing one more time.
* Frost is likely again tonight into tomorrow morning, with sub- freezing temperatures possible in rural areas and river valleys. As of writing this discussion, temperatures were mainly in the low/mid 30s and with a couple hours until sunset, we should see a fair amount of locations drop to or below 32 degrees within the Freeze Warning by sunrise. Temperatures will warm into the low 60s later this afternoon, remaining 5 to 10 degrees seasonal normals for this time of year. Mid and upper level ridging will remain in place over eastern North America on Friday. This low is then forecast to churn over the Four Corners region through the weekend with a downstream blocking ridge in place over the eastern US.
1123 PM CDT Wed Oct 16 2024 Skies are clear across the Mid-South this evening with temperatures ranging from the lower 40s to mid 50s.
The main upper level trough axis remains across the northern Pacific and British Columbia. As heights fall, lee troughing will develop and strengthen across eastern Colorado and northeastern New Mexico today, with breezy winds of 15 to 25 mph and higher gusts up to 30 to 35 mph possible. The low-level jet will also ramp up tonight with winds expected to remain breezy.
1233 AM EDT Thu Oct 17 2024 * Widespread frost with lows near freezing early Thursday. A building Eastern CONUS mid-upper level ridge, and an associated dry/stable air mass, will be the provider with cool mornings (mid 30s to mid 40s) and mild afternoons (highs near 70F Fri-Sun). The ridge axis does look to break down toward the end of the forecast period (Tue-Wed), with a stalled Four Corners upper low eventually picked up in westerlies, potentially tracking through the Midwest by this time with very low chances for showers (lacking moisture/forcing) and cooler/seasonable temps in wake of an associated cool front. Confidence is medium at best, with the low dew points the primary factor against high confidence. High pressure in place through the period will otherwise promote light wind and a mainly clear sky.
423 AM EDT Thu Oct 17 2024 High pressure of Canadian origin will offer below normal temperatures into Friday. As the center of the high slides east of the area a slow warming trend will be observed through the weekend. A large mid level ridge over the MS Valley will nudge a little east into the Great Lakes today. Temperatures will drop to early morning lows in the lower 30s to the upper 20s with freezing conditions expected in many locations. A large full latitude mid level ridge will build a little east becoming centered over the area Friday. Lows in the lower 30s and middle 30s will be common - with some upper 30s in urban locations. Frost and some freezing conditions will occur again tonight. Warming trend expected through the weekend as H5 ridging becomes amplified over the Midwest region.
The subsidence associated with this has yielded clear skies over a vast expanse of the central US, with light winds and temperatures in the lower 60s across our county warning area. By Friday afternoon, a closed mid level low is progged to enter into northern Arizona, with associated troughing across the Desert Southwest, with mid/upper ridging over the eastern CONUS. Surface dewpoints should increase from the upper 20s to the mid 30s, but with temperatures rising into the lower to mid 70s, this will once again result in relative humidity near critical thresholds (generally 25 to 30 percent). The aforementioned closed mid level low and associated troughing is progged to generally remain stalled over the Desert Southwest region through the weekend, with high temperatures in the mid 70s and overnight lows in the mid 40s.
Looking back at upstream min temps behind the cold front last night and at the better radiational cooling potential for tonight, there were some slight downward adjustments in min temps across our area tonight. As high pressure builds in, we'll begin to see the wind diminish, and wind Thursday should be a good bit lighter than it was today. We are lowering the elevated wild fire danger threat to limited for Thursday based on the low RH forecast with lighter wind. A few locations could dip into the mid 30s over northeast portions of the area, making patchy frost possible, but significant frost is not expected with all lows well above freezing.
Ridging aloft will build into the Lower Mississippi River Valley during the period. This, as high pressure at the surface remains over the region, while its center slides east of the forecast area. Heading into mid week, the ridging pattern is expected to flatten over the southeast.
(This evening through Friday night) Strong negative vorticity advection associated with a deep layer ridge axis building in from the northwest will result in clear skies and low humidity through the entire forecast period. The clear skies and dry air will also support a fairly large diurnal range with lows falling into the low to mid 40s tonight and tomorrow night generally along and north of the I-10/12 corridor and the low to mid 50s south of this corridor. As the cold pool shifts to the east Friday night, lows will be about 5 degrees warmer on average from the previous two nights. Winds will also decrease tomorrow and Friday as the high pressure builds more over the region, and this will allow the Red Flag Warning to expire this evening.
A warming trend will begin today as high pressure settles over Middle Tennessee.
(This evening through Thursday) The cold front that brought a much cooler and drier airmass into the area overnight is continuing southward into Mexico. Winds should turn out of the southeast overnight on the west side of the high, but should only be 5 to 10 MPH. Winds should turn more southerly and increase on Thursday which should advect some slightly warmer air back back into the region. Despite an increase in clouds, high temperatures should be in the upper 70s, which is about 5 to 10 degrees warmer than they were today.
Clear skies and calm winds have allowed overnight temperatures to drop into the lower 30s outside of the urban Metro area, which has likely resulted in areas to widespread frost development across SE MI. The first stronger wave of warm air advection coupled with extensive sunshine will allow temperatures to increase into the lower 60s today for a high.
1240 AM CDT Thu Oct 17 2024 A quiet night still on tap across the Four State region, as high pressure will continue to build into the region overnight. This is due to a post-frontal air mass that has arrived behind troughing and an attendant frontal boundary that has crossed further into the Gulf of Mexico. Temperatures will remain much cooler than average for this time of the year with maximums/minimums in the upper 60s to lower 70s/40s to lower 50s, respectively.
1259 AM EDT Thu Oct 17 2024 High pressure building into the Northeast tonight will lead to the first widespread freeze of the season. This, combined with an already dry air mass in place, will result in ideal radiational cooling conditions and most areas will fall at or below freezing.
1248 AM CDT Thu Oct 17 2024 - Temperatures will be much cooler today with breezy conditions diminishing this afternoon. (This evening through Thursday) The cold front that brought a much cooler and drier airmass into the area overnight is continuing southward into Mexico. Winds should turn out of the southeast overnight on the west side of the high, but should only be 5 to 10 MPH. Winds should turn more southerly and increase on Thursday which should advect some slightly warmer air back back into the region. Despite an increase in clouds, high temperatures should be in the upper 70s, which is about 5 to 10 degrees warmer than they were today.
High pressure is expected to remain well N of the region keeping occasionally breezy NE-E flow in place through the weekend as well.
427 AM EDT Thu Oct 17 2024 Low pressure will slowly drift away from the coast today, while Canadian high pressure will expand from the middle MS Valley to the middle Atlantic through the end of the week. A potent mid/upper low is currently centered over NE NC. So temperatures in many spots are still in the lower-to-mid-40s, with one area of mid-to-upper-30s over the western Piedmont south of the Triad. The mid/upper low will move offshore and NE into the Atlantic today and tonight. High temperatures will be slightly warmer than yesterday but still below average, in the upper-50s to mid-60s. High-amplitude ridging aloft will move farther east towards the Eastern Seaboard, resulting in another day of sunny skies and increased temperatures with highs in the mid-to- upper-60s.
(Today through Friday) The most recent surface analysis from the Weather Prediction Center indicates a cold front draped across northern Mexico. Although dry weather will reign tonight, some isolated convection may return for Friday as broad, closed, mid-level low pressure moves into the Four Corners area. Temperature-wise, near normal values in the wake of the cold front today will warm to slightly above normal levels on Friday as cloud cover becomes more limited and an onshore flow redevelops. Finally, with churned-up seas along the Lower Texas Coast, a High Risk of rip currents and a Coastal Flood Advisory will exist at the local beaches for all or a portion of the period, respectively.
1131 PM CDT Wed Oct 16 2024 (This evening through Thursday Night) In the wake of last night's cold front, skies are clearing out from north to south this afternoon, and this trend will continue on into the evening and overnight hours. Thursday will be mostly sunny to sunny and mild with highs ranging from the low 70s up north (in/around the Crockett area) to the upper 70s/around 80 down southwest (Wharton-Jackson County area). The weather stays quiet heading into Thursday night with low temperatures a little warmer, ranging from the low 40s up north (again, in/around the Crockett area) to the low to mid 60s at the coast.
(Thursday through Friday) The early morning sfc analysis indicates strong ridging in place from the Mid-South SW into Cntrl TX. This ridging will persist through the day today, accompanied by larger scale ridging aloft noted on the water vapor imagery over the Cntrl CONUS, with a crystal clear sky giving way to strong insolation today.
The first major cold front of the season blasted through the Florida Keys earlier this evening. Temperatures are generally in the lower to mid 70s at most island communities. The southern extent of a positively tilted longwave trough associated with the frontal passage will remain just to the west of the Florida Keys through tonight. Although the aforementioned trough will likely flatten out after tonight, all indications suggest the front will slide back northward on Friday for about twenty-four hours.
(Today) Tranquil weather across the Tennessee Valley early this morning, with high pressure at the surface promoting clear/calm conditions.
While H5 ridging shifts east thorugh the day thermal ridging peaks this afternoon across the region as H850 temps reach low 20s C. Ridging continues to shift through the next day as a cutoff low forms in the for corners region with a deformation zone aloft in the northern plains.
A large upper low over the mid-Atlantic region will shift off the Atlantic Seaboard today as a narrow upper ridge shifts E from the Great Plains to the OH Valley. At the surface, sprawling high pressure will settle over the eastern U. High temperatures will warm a bit for today as the upper trough departs and the upper ridge approaches. Fri morning lows are expected to be 1-5 degrees warmer than this morning's lows. A few spots in the NE mountains may briefly approach freezing around daybreak, but this doesn't appear to warrant another Freeze Warning at this time. High temperatures on Friday are expected to average about 5 degrees warmer than today's, ranging from the lower 60s in the NE mountains to the lower 70s across the S.
1014 AM EDT Thu Oct 17 2024 High pressure will settle over the Ohio Valley today and Friday before slowly drifting east into the eastern United States over the weekend. Light winds and radiational cooling will allow temperatures to drop into the low to mid 30s again tonight. Locations along the immediate lakeshore will remain in the warmer upper 30s to around 40 degrees overnight so northern Erie PA, Ashtabula, and possibly Lake counties could avoid frost/freeze headlines. Temperatures continue to recover Friday with highs in the low to mid 60s anticipated. High pressure in control through the short term period.
630 AM CDT Thu Oct 17 2024 (Thursday through Friday) The early morning sfc analysis indicates strong ridging in place from the Mid-South SW into Cntrl TX. This ridging will persist through the day today, accompanied by larger scale ridging aloft noted on the water vapor imagery over the Cntrl CONUS, with a crystal clear sky giving way to strong insolation today.
709 AM CDT Thu Oct 17 2024 (Today) Tranquil weather across the Tennessee Valley early this morning, with high pressure at the surface promoting clear/calm conditions.
900 AM EDT Thu Oct 17 2024 High pressure of Canadian origin will offer below normal temperatures into Friday. As the center of the high slides east of the area a slow warming trend will be observed through the weekend. A large mid level ridge over the MS Valley will nudge a little east into the Great Lakes today. Temperatures will drop to early morning lows in the upper 20s to the lower 30s with freezing conditions expected in many locations. A large full latitude mid level ridge will build a little east becoming centered over the area Friday. Lows in the lower 30s and middle 30s will be common - with some upper 30s in urban locations. Frost and some freezing conditions will occur again tonight. Warming trend expected through the weekend as H5 ridging becomes amplified over the Midwest region.
(Rest of Today) Clear skies and calm winds allowed good radiational cooling to drop our temps into the low/mid 30s across the TN Valley this morning. High pressure will keep sunny skies overhead and light winds in place throughout the day.
938 AM EDT Thu Oct 17 2024 - Warmer today with highs in the low to mid 60s.
(Today and tonight) After a cool start to the day, temperatures will climb into mostly the lower to mid 70s for highs today. An upper trough currently over the Pacific Northwest will dive southeast into the Great Basin tonight, with a closed low developing over east or southeast Nevada by 7 AM Friday.
618 AM EDT Thu Oct 17 2024 High pressure of Canadian origin will offer below normal temperatures into Friday. As the center of the high slides east of the area a slow warming trend will be observed through the weekend. A large mid level ridge over the MS Valley will nudge a little east into the Great Lakes today. Temperatures will drop to early morning lows in the upper 20s to the lower 30s with freezing conditions expected in many locations. A large full latitude mid level ridge will build a little east becoming centered over the area Friday. Lows in the lower 30s and middle 30s will be common - with some upper 30s in urban locations. Frost and some freezing conditions will occur again tonight. Warming trend expected through the weekend as H5 ridging becomes amplified over the Midwest region.
With RH still in the low to mid 30s this bodes well for the 8am start time of the RFW's. While H5 ridging shifts east thorugh the day thermal ridging peaks this afternoon across the region as H850 temps reach low 20s C. Ridging continues to shift through the next day as a cutoff low forms in the for corners region with a deformation zone aloft in the northern plains.
645 AM CDT Thu Oct 17 2024 A warming trend will begin today as high pressure settles over Middle Tennessee.
No significant changes to the forecast this morning, An upper trough will continue to influence cooler and drier weather across the region today. Ridging aloft will build into the Lower Mississippi River Valley during the period. This, as high pressure at the surface remains over the region, while its center slides east of the forecast area. Heading into mid week, the ridging pattern is expected to flatten over the southeast.
Pattern Synopsis/Pattern Forecast: Sharp upper level ridging in the process of building directly overhead early this morning, with its surface reflection centered across the Ohio Valley. Apex of upper level ridge will continue to expand across our area today and tonight as its surface reflection moves a bit further east. Details: Mostly sunny/clear skies expected today and tonight as overhead airmass remains a dry one and with large scale subsidence under that upper level ridge. with afternoon highs topping out in the lower and middle 60s. Sorry for sounding like a broken record (for the people that actually know what that means) but an upper level ridge is still expected to be in control of our weather over the next few days at a minimum.
601 AM CDT Thu Oct 17 2024 (Today through Friday) A trough and embedded upper low move eastward off the East Coast today, while mid-level ridging moves eastward into the area today. At the surface, high pressure over the eastern CONUS will strengthen to 1034mb by Friday. Frost is likely in most sheltered locations across the north and in the Black Belt this morning, and some of the typically cooler northeastern valleys will probably briefly drop below freezing. Temperatures will be a few degrees warmer tonight, but with ideal radiational cooling conditions expect some frost mainly in the northeastern valleys as well as the Black Belt.
519 AM CDT Thu Oct 17 2024 (Today) Light winds have allowed many locations to fall near or slightly below freezing this morning, especially sheltered valleys of western AR and southeast OK where Frost Advisory remains in effect early this morning.
405 AM MDT Thu Oct 17 2024 Temperatures today will be much cooler, with highs mostly in the 40s and 50s. Much cooler today 2.
Broad high pressure and ridge extends across the central and eastern Great Lakes today ensuring VFR skies through the TAF period. Winds will start out calm to light out of the west this morning then back more southerly while remaining light towards this evening as high pressure slides eastward. Clear skies and calm winds have allowed overnight temperatures to drop into the lower 30s outside of the urban Metro area, which has likely resulted in areas to widespread frost development across SE MI. The first stronger wave of warm air advection coupled with extensive sunshine will allow temperatures to increase into the lower 60s today for a high.
A trough of low pressure will be over the region today causing scattered showers with significantly cooler temperatures. Snow levels have lowered to around 4500 feet this morning allowing for accumulating snow in the higher terrain.
It has been a beautiful morning across the Florida Keys in the wake of last night's early season cold frontal passage. The southern extent of a longwave trough extends across South Florida, but has not been able to help generate any convection due to the drier air present. Temperatures will only reach the lower 80s today, so enjoy this nice "chill" in the air while we have it! A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for all Florida Keys coastal waters. In the wake of the first strong cold frontal passage of the season, northeast to east breezes will remain strong through the weekend, as a large high pressure system plants itself over the Eastern Seaboard.
Patterson Issued 338 AM CDT Thu Oct 17 2024 Today through Friday: Mostly sunny skies and breezy southerly winds are expected today and Friday between high pressure centered to the southeast and a trough moving over the ridge from the northern plains into Canada.
739 AM EDT Thu Oct 17 2024 (Today through Friday) A cold front continues to slowly push south early this morning and should settle across the Florida Straits today and remain in the vicinity through Friday. Meanwhile, strong high pressure is building in to our north. Most of South FL will see dryer and cooler conditions today and Friday, with just a slight chance of some showers over the far southern tip of the peninsula. Low temps tonight will range from the lower 60s around the lake to lower 70s across the east coast metro. High temps on Friday will be a couple degrees warmer but remain below normal with lower 80s for most.