Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
814 AM PDT Sat Apr 20 2024 Dry weather expected for the balance of the day today, as a cold front approaches from the west. All sites will be breezy this afternoon into tonight with wind gusts between 20-30 kts (>60% confidence)as the cold front moves across the region.
243 PM EDT Sat Apr 20 2024 An upper level trough with unseasonably cold air aloft will swing through eastern Canada and the northeastern states this afternoon and Sunday, resulting in cooler and breezy conditions.
238 PM EDT Sat Apr 20 2024 It will be cooler and breezy, with scattered rain showers into early evening.
The cold front has finally made it to the Big Bend, but not before temperatures peaked in the mid 80s. While most of the rain will clear out the low clouds will remain into Sunday. Sunday looks a bit warmer although highs will remain well below normal.
203 PM EDT Sat Apr 20 2024 It will be cooler and breezy, with scattered rain showers into early evening.
(Tonight) Widespread convection ongoing across N TX is expected to expand north somewhat this evening as mid level trough passes NW-SE across the region.
pdf Isolated to scattered convection is possible for this afternoon and evening with developments most likely to occur over inland southeast Georgia, with a potential for isolated strong storms forming in the vicinity of areas north of the Douglas-Alma-Jesup line as weak embedded short waves passing ahead of the advancing cold front up to the north.
Lift associated with the upper trough that has moved over western New Mexico as of early afternoon is already shifting eastward faster than expected with a back edge to showers and thunderstorms already approaching I-27 corridor.
211 PM MDT Sat Apr 20 2024 KEY MESSAGES: 1) A return toward spring is expected the rest of this weekend as a broad ridge pattern builds into the area this week.
1232 PM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024 (Today through Sunday afternoon) WV imagery shows the west coast trough has made landfall, moving through SoCal/Arizona and approaching West texas and Southeast new Mexico, leaving the area under southwest flow aloft. At the surface, a secondary cold front is pushing into the area, and this should result in highs today ~ 9-10F cooler than yesterday's as CAA behind the front continues in northeasterly flow. Meanwhile, area radars show convection developing in the lower Trans Pecos, and this activity is still forecast to spread west and north today as the front moves farther southwest and large- scale ascent commences w/the arrival of the west coast trough. As the trough arrives, mid-level lapse rates increase to 7C/km or better, so a hail threat will be present.
1229 PM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024 - Below freezing temperatures are expected again tonight into Sunday morning, potentially creating some frost/freeze concerns across portions of the area.
(This evening through Sunday night) A fairly broad upper level trough is currently moving east through the Great Lakes. The southern side of this feature is relatively flat at this time which is why the associated cold front draped across central Louisiana and southern Mississippi is struggling to make southward progression. The cold front will be basically crawling south in the CWA this afternoon. This has allowed for decent warming which should increase CAPE in the lower to mid levels. This is what'll be needed to finally drive that cold front completely through the CWA on Sunday morning.
(This evening through Sunday Night) Widespread showers and thunderstorms continue to expand in coverage, mainly near and north of the I-20 Corridor this afternoon but our southern half will get into the action later tonight as an upper level trough moves out of the Texas Hill Country and Four Corners Region and quickly moves across our region Sunday Morning. Not seeing the stout convection we were seeing earlier this morning but similar elevated instability still exists across the southern and eastern half of our region so cannot rule out some hail for the remainder of the afternoon into the evening and overnight hours with increasing ascent with the arrival of the upper trough but the bigger threat continues to be locally heavy downpours.
This is occurring in conjunction with a subtle mid-level trough embedded in the subtropical jet, and should spread east-northeastward across the Arklamiss region this afternoon. The leading edge of this next round of precip will reach western portions of the forecast area between 18-21Z, with perhaps a lower risk for thunderstorms, as afternoon storms developing along a stalled cold front (immediately inland from the central Gulf Coast) may disrupt the environment locally.
Building high pressure will return above average temperatures mid-week. KEY MESSAGES: - Breezy conditions will continue for the lower elevations through 6pm; higher terrain through midnight.
A dry cold front will move through tomorrow, bringing gusty NW winds to most areas. Temperatures will be cooler tomorrow, but still above normal.
248 PM EDT Sat Apr 20 2024 An upper level trough with unseasonably cold air aloft will swing through eastern Canada and the northeastern states late this afternoon and Sunday, resulting in cooler and breezy conditions.
Deep moisture has been increasing and showers and some storms have begun increasing in coverage upstream over the Lower MS River Valley where isentropic lift is strongest. Highest thunderstorm chances will focus across the southern half of the area where temperatures are warming into the lower 80s, but temperatures are still in the 60s, at the time of this writing, near and along the I-20 corridor due to the cloud cover and northerly surface winds. A cool, light to moderate rainfall will be ongoing across much of the area at sunrise tomorrow, but should begin to exit the area towards early afternoon as the low-level trough moves east.
This weak troughing/more zonal flow will open the door for some precipitation on Sunday, though it looks limited to the Central Mountains and Eastern Highlands at this point with only about a 20 percent chance of showers at that.
The brief upper level ridge will be compressed by a weak disturbance on Sunday. An associated cold front will pass through the Northern Rockies during the morning bringing scattered (mostly light) showers, slightly cooler daytime temperatures and breezy westerly winds as valley gusts of 25-35 mph will be common.
322 PM EDT Sat Apr 20 2024 High pressure will lead to dry but cool conditions through the weekend.
322 PM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024 - Warmer temperatures in the 60s finally return for Sunday.
321 PM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024 - Temperatures are expected to drop to or below freezing this morning and tomorrow night.
- Much warmer Sunday with elevated fire weather possible in the afternoon.
The highest coverage of showers and storms is anticipated to be over interior areas through tonight then becomes oriented mostly over the southern portion of the area Sunday morning. /29 (Now through Sunday) A positively tilted upper trof over the northern Plains and extreme northeast states evolves into a more meridionally oriented upper trof over the eastern half of the CONUS. Lows tonight mostly range from the upper 40s/around 50 well inland to the lower 60s at the coast. Highs on Sunday range from the lower 60s inland to the lower 70s at the coast.
Based on satellite imagery, the short wave is exiting to the northeast with weak ridging filling in behind it. Drier and cooler conditions expected Sunday afternoon after frontal passage.
Clouds are expected to increase again tonight and this will help keep temperatures from dropping below freezing tonight. There is the possibility for some isolated showers tonight to track across the Panhandles as the main trough axis moves through. On the back side of this trough we can expect cool, but slightly warmer temperatures as we transition to a building ridge of high pressure.
It may be difficult to form much frost overnight given dew points only in the lower to mid 20s along with the clouds and winds so will forego any frost or freeze headlines at this time. Early Sunday morning lows could dip down to 30-32 in spots once some better clearing takes place, but suspect the duration/coverage of any sub-freezing temps will be rather brief/limited. Sunnier skies and warmer high temps in the mid 50s are anticipated which should lower afternoon minimum relative humidities down to 25-30 percent.
1019 AM MDT Sat Apr 20 2024 - Dry today, with warmer temperatures, though still below normal. - Much warmer Sunday, with highs above normal.
216 PM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024 - Near freezing temperatures tonight. With light wind and clouds slowly clearing from north to south, we could see temperatures near freezing along the NE/KS border. High pressure quickly moves out Sunday and return flow develops by the evening.
At the synoptic level, a ridge is be building over the southwest region today and through the early part of the week. Temperatures will be climbing into the upper 80s to mid-to-low 90s in the lower elevations through the first half of the week.
649 PM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024 (This evening through Sunday) Satellite and radar imagery are telling the story this afternoon showing a clear mid/upper level trough moving eastward across New Mexico with lift out ahead of it resulting in showers and thunderstorms now almost entirely east of the I-27 corridor. Will have to watch the area between the western edge of precip and the trough itself for any additional attempts to precipitate late this afternoon, but by 00Z only the eastern third of the forecast area should be under any threat for showers and storms, and by 03Z all meaningful lift should be east of the forecast area. In fact, with the trough shifted east of the area by then there should be mid/upper level subsidence.
909 PM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024 - Warmer temperatures in the 60s finally return for Sunday.
601 PM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024 (Tonight) Widespread convection ongoing across N TX is expected to expand north somewhat this evening as mid level trough passes NW-SE across the region.
946 PM EDT Sat Apr 20 2024 High pressure builds in following the passage of the cold front earlier on Saturday.
626 PM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024 - Temperatures are expected to drop to or below freezing this morning and tomorrow night.
818 PM EDT Sat Apr 20 2024 High pressure will lead to dry but cool conditions through the weekend.
944 PM EDT Sat Apr 20 2024 It will be cooler and breezy, with scattered rain showers into early evening.
719 PM EDT Sat Apr 20 2024 High pressure begins building in from the west this afternoon following the passage of the cold front.
611 PM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024 - Near freezing temperatures tonight. With light wind and clouds slowly clearing from north to south, we could see temperatures near freezing along the NE/KS border. High pressure quickly moves out Sunday and return flow develops by the evening.
1011 PM EDT Sat Apr 20 2024 High pressure will lead to dry but cool conditions through the weekend.
555 PM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024 - Tonight could be the last night of freezing weather for the foreseeable future.
726 PM EDT Sat Apr 20 2024 (Rest of today through Sunday) Broad mid level ridging that has been in place across South Florida will gradually continue to break down through the rest of the weekend. This is in response to a deepening mid level trough digging southeastward through the Plains and eventually into the Southeast. At the surface, a broad area of high pressure will continue to push further east into the Atlantic as a frontal boundary remains draped across the Gulf Coast States.
812 PM EDT Sat Apr 20 2024 Showers and thunderstorms this evening will accompany a cold front which will stall to our south tonight. Low pressure developing along this front should lead to widespread rain Sunday.
652 PM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024 (This evening through Sunday night) A fairly broad upper level trough is currently moving east through the Great Lakes. The southern side of this feature is relatively flat at this time which is why the associated cold front draped across central Louisiana and southern Mississippi is struggling to make southward progression. The cold front will be basically crawling south in the CWA this afternoon. This has allowed for decent warming which should increase CAPE in the lower to mid levels. This is what'll be needed to finally drive that cold front completely through the CWA on Sunday morning.
Clear with warm lows Sunday morning before a dry cold front will moves through, bringing gusty NW winds to most areas, especially in the Snake Plain. Temperatures will be cooler tomorrow, but still above normal. Surface winds: SW-SE 5-15 kt shifting to W-NW 10-20 kt with gusts to 20-30 kt by 21/09Z for SE OR terminals and 21/12Z for SW ID terminals with a weak cold frontal passage.
A mid-level ridge is over the central Gulf of Mexico this afternoon with weak troughing east of Florida, and this pattern is keeping a northwest flow aloft over the local area. At the surface, high pressure remains centered over the western Gulf of Mexico.
High pressure over the Great Basin will result in dry weather and temperatures 10-15 degrees above climo.
700-500 mb ridging remains across the southern Gulf and south Florida, with heights starting to fall from central Florida north and west as a progressive trough moves through the south central Plains. With some oscillations, the surface ridging across the northwest Bahamas should not yield much despite a couple millibars of fall across the northern Gulf with the approach of the trough. remaining elevated in the lower to mid 90s. High pressure over the western North Atlantic will maintain gentle to occasionally moderate southeast breezes across the Florida Keys coastal waters through the remainder of the weekend.
Sunday will be dry with warmer afternoon temperatures for most interior locations.
805 PM EDT Sat Apr 20 2024 An upper level trough with unseasonably cold air aloft will swing through eastern Canada and the northeastern states late this weekend.
627 PM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024 - Warmer temperatures in the 60s finally return for Sunday.
A dissipating cold front will bring a slight chance for drizzle to the North Coast through early this evening.
529 PM MDT Sat Apr 20 2024 - Freezing fog and light to moderate snowfall will be the main concerns through mid-afternoon across the South Laramie Range, Cheyenne Ridge, and southern Nebraska panhandle. Roadways may be slick, especially bridges and overpasses.
705 PM EDT Sat Apr 20 2024 An upper level trough with unseasonably cold air aloft will swing through eastern Canada and the northeastern states late this weekend.
627 PM EDT Sat Apr 20 2024 It will be cooler and breezy, with scattered rain showers into early evening.
1018 PM EDT Sat Apr 20 2024 Showers and thunderstorms this evening will accompany a cold front which will stall to our south tonight. Low pressure developing along this front should lead to widespread rain Sunday.
High pressure ridging resides over the southern FL peninsula this evening. High pressure will weaken ahead of a cold front that is expected to track across north Florida into the evening. High pressure ridging will reside over the southern FL peninsula during this time. With the approach of a frontal trough overnight Sun, wind direction will veer W/NW.
Low temperatures by dawn Sunday in the low to mid 30s with widespread frost expected north of I-70.
717 PM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024 (This evening through Sunday Night) Widespread showers and thunderstorms continue to expand in coverage, mainly near and north of the I-20 Corridor this afternoon but our southern half will get into the action later tonight as an upper level trough moves out of the Texas Hill Country and Four Corners Region and quickly moves across our region Sunday Morning. Not seeing the stout convection we were seeing earlier this morning but similar elevated instability still exists across the southern and eastern half of our region so cannot rule out some hail for the remainder of the afternoon into the evening and overnight hours with increasing ascent with the arrival of the upper trough but the bigger threat continues to be locally heavy downpours.
718 PM EDT Sat Apr 20 2024 It will be cooler and breezy, with scattered rain showers into early evening.
Meanwhile at the surface, high pressure is situated over southwest Nebraska/nw KS and encompasses the majority of the Plains. This will allow a weak cold front to move through the forecast area during the day Tue and should push through the entire area by late Tue afternoon. Meanwhile, over the eastern half of KS, strong 850-700mb moisture transport, near and north of a lifting warm front, should support at least sct showers and storms into the early evening. Then for Sat both ECMWF and GFS dig a deep western CONUS upper trough and progress it very slowly east into Sun. The trend so far with this trough has been to slow it down and dig it deeper. Aviation concerns are expected to remain on the low side.
Clear skies have allowed temps to drop into the low to mid 30s in most areas. The lowest dewpoints have been along and south of the highway 2 corridor, while the warmest temperatures have been over southeast North Dakota. Putting these together, the lowest humidity readings have been over southeast North Dakota. Highs still look about 10 degrees warmer than today, with similar dewpoints.
All of this precipitation has been on the backside of the cold front that is now from Mobile to Auburn and sliding south and east. High pressure will build in behind the rain keeping the area cool for the day. Monday should be sunny with high pressure overhead.
326 AM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024 - Sunny today with warmer temperatures, some frost/freeze potential remains tonight. - Warmer and breezy Monday with scattered showers afternoon and evening.
(Today) Dense cloud cover and some light stratiform rain remains in place early this morning across the Tennessee Valley as an area of low pressure shifts across the Deep South. A deepening upper-trough will swing across the region today, pushing the true cold front through the area and ushering in a cooler, drier air mass.
Full sunshine expected today as high pressure drops to our south and winds turn more westerly today.
A sharpening upper trough will approach the mid south from the central plains tonight. The trough will support the transport of a cooler and drier air mass to the mid south on Sunday.
Now through early afternoon, an area of low pressure will track from southwest to northeast, just south of our area.
Satellite imagery this morning showed high clouds moving into the southern parts of the forecast area associated with an upper low off the Baja Spur. These high clouds will overspread the area today as the upper low moves into Sonora Mexico.
125 AM EDT Sun Apr 21 2024 (Rest of today through Sunday) Broad mid level ridging that has been in place across South Florida will gradually continue to break down through the rest of the weekend. This is in response to a deepening mid level trough digging southeastward through the Plains and eventually into the Southeast. At the surface, a broad area of high pressure will continue to push further east into the Atlantic as a frontal boundary remains draped across the Gulf Coast States.
a positively tilted upper level trof axis was dropping southeast through the Central Plains.
(Today and tonight) Early this morning, the mid-level trough axis that brought much- needed rain to the area has moved eastward. The resulting stout inversion in the low-levels should help cloud cover to persist for most of the day. High temperatures are expected to reach the low to mid 60s, but this will depend highly on how much insolation can break through the clouds. Lows should fall into the low to mid 40s across the region.
A cold front crosses tonight with little precipitation followed by a dry and blustery day Monday.
1123 PM MDT Sat Apr 20 2024 - Freezing fog and light to moderate snowfall will be the main concerns through mid-afternoon across the South Laramie Range, Cheyenne Ridge, and southern Nebraska panhandle. Roadways may be slick, especially bridges and overpasses.
312 AM EDT Sun Apr 21 2024 High pressure will lead to dry but cool conditions through the weekend.
High pressure will bring very warm temperatures through Monday.
421 AM EDT Sun Apr 21 2024 High pressure builds into the region early this week.
The high pressure that has been dominating the past week, keeping temperatures high and rain chances low, will finally have some competition.
This has brought in cooler temperatures readings and even areas of light snow this morning. The overall UL trof associated with this will continue to move east through the day. Lows around freezing will be likely for the NW zones, where mid and upper 30s are expected for the rest of the FA. The winds will eventually become southerly as the high shifts off to the east of the CWA. Another upper level low will move across the northern Rockies Monday. As such, much warmer highs are expected with deterministic data in the 80s for half of the FA. The combination of the warmer highs and stronger winds will set the stage for another higher fire danger day Monday.
(Today through Monday) For the remainder of the weekend, the prevailing mid-level atmospheric pattern over South Florida will gradually weaken as a deepening trough moves southeastward from the Plains into the Southeast. Simultaneously, high-pressure systems at the surface will shift eastward into the Atlantic, while a frontal boundary remains stationary over the Gulf Coast States and edges southeastward, expected to pass through Northern Florida tonight and into Sunday. This front is expected to lack strong dynamic support as its parent trough moves across the Eastern CONUS, diminishing the likelihood of widespread severe weather.
250 AM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024 - Warmer and sunnier today with temperatures getting into the 60s. A chilly night is taking shape across northeastern Kansas as surface ridging continues to move in from the north, pushing cloud cover further south. Expect temperatures here to range from around freezing to the mid 30s with a Frost Advisory in effect until 8 AM. For the remainder of the day, mostly sunny skies and ridging overhead will warm afternoon temperatures into the low to mid 60s. The next few days to follow will see temperatures fluctuate minimally with highs in the low to mid 70s.
The fly in the ointment is the temporal and spatial coverage of mid level clouds associated with a weak trough axis that will move through the area tonight through Sunday morning. Latest thinking is the western edge of the cloud deck with the trough axis will begin to erode eastward just before daybreak which does leave a small amount of time for increased radiational cooling to occur. Highs on Sunday will top out around the mid With an upper level ridge axis beginning to move into the region on Sunday, skies will clear out. This will allow for decent radiational cooling however the synoptic warming with the ridging should allow for low temperatures on Monday to be a few degrees warmer than the Sunday morning lows. Monday's high temperatures will rebound nicely and highs in the low to mid 60s forecasted.
- A cold front tomorrow night will bring the potential (50 to 75% chance) for rain across much of eastern Nebraska and southwestern Iowa. Cold temperatures near or just below freezing this morning will quickly warm up into the 60s by this afternoon. With dewpoints in the low 20s, relative humidities in the afternoon will drop as low as 20 to 25 percent. Even warmer temperatures in the 70s are expected tomorrow afternoon before a cold front comes through tomorrow night.
202 AM EDT Sun Apr 21 2024 Much cooler temperatures and widespread light rain is expected overnight into Sunday with drier weather returning by Monday.
(Today through Monday Night) This weakening broken line of showers/thunderstorms currently nearing the coast should be end of the organized activity for SE TX with this system and its associated cold front. Clearing skies and decreased winds will help to give us lows ranging from the mid and upper 40s north to the lower and mid 50s across the central/southern CWA tonight. Light NE/E winds will prevail with highs in the lower 70s.