Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1110 PM EDT Thu May 9 2024 - A stationary front will continue to be present across southwestern PA to northern VA for the next 24 hours as a few waves of low pressure move east along it. - Several upper level troughs will move across PA through Saturday, bringing periods of light to moderate rain. Six hour flash flood guidance remains fairly high, with the lowest guidance of 1. Have opted for no SPS or DFA at this time due to the patchy nature and being confined to the highest ridgetops although future shifts may lean towards issuing products. There are some signals for lowered visibilities across the Lower Susquehanna Valley and along the Endless Mountains, but less confidence at this time.
At the surface, high pressure will continue building into the region, keeping a light to moderate northerly breeze in place. A few locations in the Arkansas River Valley and near the Red River may reach the lower 80s.
1122 PM EDT Thu May 9 2024 - A stationary front will continue to be present across southwestern PA to northern VA for the next 24 hours as a few waves of low pressure move east along it. - Several upper level troughs will move across PA through Saturday, bringing periods of light to moderate rain. Six hour flash flood guidance remains fairly high, with the lowest guidance of 1. Have opted for no SPS or DFA at this time due to the patchy nature and being confined to the highest ridgetops although future shifts may lean towards issuing products. There are some signals for lowered visibilities across the Lower Susquehanna Valley and along the Endless Mountains, but less confidence at this time.
(Today through Saturday) The most recent surface analysis indicates a cold front stretching from Southeast Texas to the Hill Country to the Big Bend.
UPDATE The next short wave and cold front are progressing across southern Manitoba.
349 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024 Forecast discussion for routine morning forecast issuance - A quick moving cold front will bring showers and a few storms to the region late this afternoon into this evening.
For today, another relatively mild day is forecast as the area remains under split flow or slight ridging aloft. Tomorrow, the upper cut-off low to the west is forecast to begin moving east and start rejoining the main flow. Given the track of the upper low, locales to along and south of I-70 will likely see more rain and have better forcing.
A dry night and cooler temperatures will be in place tonight with generally 50s across the area. On Saturday, mostly sunny skies will be in place as high pressure builds into the area.
A long wave trough is slowly digging into the region with cold air advection aloft keeping temperatures on the cooler side this afternoon compared to recent days. Rain will be steady but light and last through most of the day tomorrow with QPF amounts ranging from near an inch in the higher elevations of NEPA to around a 10th of an inch in the Mohawk valley. Friday night was a little tricky in regards to the low temperature forecast.
(Today) Upper level zonal flow will evolve into northwest flow by this afternoon as upper level ridging moves over the Midwest. As for high temperatures this afternoon, expecting highs to merely reach the lower to mid 70s over southern middle Tennessee and in the mid to upper 70s over northern Alabama.
Wind shift noted by automated weather sensors in eastern ND signal the approach of a cold front pushing southeast through our area. UPDATE The next short wave and cold front are progressing across southern Manitoba.
High pressure will result in pleasant weather through the weekend.
647 AM EDT Fri May 10 2024 A cold front wish push through the area this morning bringing cooler air and gusty winds.
514 AM MDT Fri May 10 2024 - Warmer and mainly dry today.
639 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024 (Today through Saturday) Key Messages: â¶ Cold front to move across the region today â¶ Low chance for showers and storms through Saturday A cold front is sagging southward and is approaching our CWA this morning. Cooler and drier conditions expected behind the front with afternoon highs today climbing into the mid 80s to 90s. Lows tonight will be in the low to mid 70s accompanied by a low (20%) chance for showers and thunderstorms across the Rio Grande Plains.
948 AM EDT Fri May 10 2024 A cold front will push through the area this morning bringing cooler air and gusty winds.
- A return to more active weather returns Saturday evening as an upper level low approaches the area from the west.
With upper level ridging building in, benign conditions are expected today, with temperatures rising to near to slightly above average this afternoon. -AM 520 AM MDT Fri May 10 2024 (10/12Z TAF Period) Expect clear skies and light winds across North Central and Southwestern Montana today as high pressure continues to build into the area.
General offshore flow influenced by a Pacific ridge of high pressure will continue to bring warm and dry conditions through Saturday.
Cooler conditions are anticipated over the weekend with a shift in the synoptic pattern from the northwest. ------------------------------------------------------------------- Ridging over eastern Ohio Friday night into early Saturday is expected to decrease precipitation. Temperatures will remain cooler than average under northerly flow. While a few storms could be considered strong, the still cooler conditions will only yield MUCAPE values between 400J/kg to 600J/kg. KEY MESSAGES: - Cooler temperatures arrive by late week with highs in the 60s this weekend.
515 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024 (Today and tonight) Easterly surface winds in the wake of a cold front will bring much cooler temperatures today. Highs generally in the low-to-mid 70s will be seen area wide. Higher cloud cover is expected to persist through much of the day as an upper ridge axis moves over the region. The pattern begins to change later this evening as an upper low that has been stalled over southern Nevada for some time will finally start to slowly move eastward.
The cold front has pushed southeast of the area and the chance for rain has ended.
Cooler conditions are anticipated over the weekend with a shift in the synoptic pattern from the northwest. Precipitation chances will remain across the region today due the slow progression of the trough over the Mid- Atlantic, slowed down by ridging just off the east coast. ------------------------------------------------------------------- Ridging over eastern Ohio Friday night into early Saturday is expected to decrease precipitation. Temperatures will remain cooler than average under northerly flow. While a few storms could be considered strong, the still cooler conditions will only yield MUCAPE values between 400J/kg to 600J/kg. KEY MESSAGES: - Cooler temperatures arrive by late week with highs in the 60s this weekend.
Skies are clear across the region thanks to east to northeasterly (offshore) flow brought on by a thermal trough along the coast.
(Rest of Today) An upper level trough axis will progress through the TN Valley with little fanfare today as a surface cold front pushes through the southern half of Alabama.
612 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024 (Today) Upper level zonal flow will evolve into northwest flow by this afternoon as upper level ridging moves over the Midwest. As for high temperatures this afternoon, expecting highs to merely reach the lower to mid 70s over southern middle Tennessee and in the mid to upper 70s over northern Alabama.
Cold air aloft embedded within this trough will drive thunderstorm chances today by way of steep lapse rates/weak instability, meager but sufficient moisture, and strong synoptic lift. This trough will also bring gusty winds and dry air over the Dakotas. This next trough's passage will advect warmer air into the region, along with bringing an additional chance for showers and storms to the area, currently favoring northeast ND into MN late Saturday. The path of today's trough will place our area in a northerly flow regime, with increasing winds with height. With such cold temperatures aloft keeping much of the cloud layer sub- freezing as well as generally favorable kinematics, storms will also hold the potential for small hail.
However, this lower cloud cover should diminish into late morning. A outflow boundary pushing southward into north central FL may initiate additional showers and storms this afternoon, with another band of convection possibly forming along a southward moving cold front into tonight. An approaching cold front from the north will keep ridge axis of high pressure over the west Atlantic south of the waters today, with the front then pushing southward through the area tonight.
647 AM EDT Fri May 10 2024 Another system will bring showers and thunder this afternoon, before dry high pressure builds in through the weekend. A low pressure center will move east along the slow moving cold front moving south across the area. Gusts will taper off outside of the mountains but linger across portions of the higher elevations.
557 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024 (Today and tonight) The cold front has moved through the area tonight, leaving west central Texas in a much cooler air mass.
922 AM EDT Fri May 10 2024 A weak ridge of high pressure will bring clear or clearing sky cover over the region today and most of tonight. A low pressure center in northern Michigan will lay a cold front across the Ohio Valley, which will pass east relatively quickly on Saturday. It will be cooler with highs in the mid to upper 60s. A band of showers, possibly with some embedded thunder, will occur just ahead of this trough, developing southward as the entire system moves east. But cannot rule out some additional isolated to scattered showers or thunderstorms on Saturday afternoon, generally in central Ohio where it will be a bit unstable due to the juxtaposition of cooler temperatures aloft and surface heating.
650 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024 Updated aviation portion for 12Z TAF issuance - A quick moving cold front will bring showers and a few storms to the region late this afternoon into this evening.
This severe weather has been taking place ahead of a cold front draped across the Southeast and into the Gulf. Surface analysis shows high pressure in the central North Atlantic still weakly influencing the winds across the Florida Keys, despite being shoved further offshore by the trough associated with the aforementioned frontal boundary. From synopsis, moderate southeast to south breezes late this morning will slacken and veer to the southwest this afternoon, as high pressure over the western Atlantic moves further offshore.
701 AM EDT Fri May 10 2024 High pressure builds across the region through Saturday night.
518 AM EDT Fri May 10 2024 A cold front wish push through the area this morning bringing cooler air and gusty winds.
313 AM MDT Fri May 10 2024 High pressure over the western US will put the area under ridging to northwest flow through Saturday. High temperatures will range from the lower 60s to near 70 degrees today, warming further into the 70s for Saturday. The upcoming warmer temperatures will melt much of the wet snow that fell at elevations between 6000-8000 feet this week.
620 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024 (Today through Saturday) The most recent surface analysis indicates a cold front stretching from Southeast Texas to the Hill Country to the Big Bend.
533 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024 (Today through Saturday Night) Quieter and much drier conditions are ongoing across the state early this Fri morning in wake of the cold front that moved through on Thu. and a few deg warmer for Sat in the 70s to low 80s. and a few deg warmer for Sat night into Sun morning.
623 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024 (Today through Saturday afternoon) The first piece of the rain puzzle is getting into place as a cold front moves through the Permian Basin early this morning. This moisture and the higher terrain west of the Pecos River will help widely scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop in the Big Bend and lower Trans Pecos this afternoon with the help of daytime heating. Convection increases overnight as an upper low over the western United States sends an upper level disturbance towards West Texas and eastern New Mexico.
620 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024 High pressure will result in pleasant weather through the weekend.
Quiet and seasonable conditions are expected through the rest of the day with temperature maximums only reaching the low-to-mid 80s under mostly sunny skies. Now that this insanely stubborn front has finally moved out of the region, weak upper-level ridging will move overhead into the weekend. Temperatures will also run seasonal for this time of the year, with highs ranging in the low to mid-80s, and lows ranging in the mid-50s to low-60s.
(Saturday through Friday) A brief warm up expected on Saturday as upper ridge shifts over the southern Plains ahead of upper low moving through the Four Corners region.
Satellite imagery shows deep low pressure system centered over southern Nevada early this afternoon, with strong ridge folding over through the PacNW states into East Idaho. Temperatures continue to surge into the weekend as ridge axis folds overhead, with most lower elevations surging well into the 70s for daytime highs.
319 PM EDT Fri May 10 2024 - Showers and thunderstorms tonight along a cold front.
202 PM EDT Fri May 10 2024 A weak ridge of high pressure will bring clear or clearing sky cover over the region today and most of tonight. A low pressure center in northern Michigan will lay a cold front across the Ohio Valley, which will pass east relatively quickly on Saturday. It will be cooler with highs in the mid to upper 60s. A band of showers, possibly with some embedded thunder, will occur just ahead of this trough, developing southward as the entire system moves east. But cannot rule out some additional isolated to scattered showers or thunderstorms on Saturday afternoon, generally in central Ohio where it will be a bit unstable due to the juxtaposition of cooler temperatures aloft and surface heating.
An approaching cold front from the north will keep ridge axis of high pressure over the west Atlantic south of the waters today, with the front then pushing southward through the area tonight.
228 PM MDT Fri May 10 2024 Upper level ridging will result in above average temperatures across the region this weekend. Weak disturbances moving through the ridge will result in isolated showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms in the afternoon this weekend, mainly near terrain and across North-central Montana.
The latest surface analysis places a 1001mb low off the New England Coast with a cold front extending southeast through the Carolinas, back into Alabama, and along the Mississippi Gulf Coast. AC3 High pressure will result in pleasant weather through the weekend.
This will keep SoFlo in the warm sector of the system, with warmer than normal low temps continuing tonight. For Saturday, very warm temperatures and southwest to westerly surface flow are expected, with afternoon highs again in the low to mid 90s.
Scattered showers and very isolated thunderstorms are expected through the evening hours as a weak low pressure system sits overhead.
Today will be dry and warmer with temps in the 60s to near 70F, as upper level ridge continues to build from the northwest. JKL High pressure over the western US will put the area under ridging to northwest flow through Saturday. High temperatures will range from the lower 60s to near 70 degrees today, warming further into the 70s for Saturday. The upcoming warmer temperatures will melt much of the wet snow that fell at elevations between 6000-8000 feet this week.
Return flow will commence on Saturday as the high moves eastward and winds become southerly. To our west, a closed low will move slowly eastward from the 4 corners region, with precipitation expected to increase during the day across west Texas into the panhandles. Rain could enter our area as early as late morning across western north Texas, with better chances arriving during the afternoon and evening, spreading northeastward as a lead wave moves out ahead of the main trough.
With upper level ridging building in, benign conditions are expected today, with temperatures rising to near to slightly above average this afternoon.
Southwest flow aloft continues across the region and with some upslope flow on the higher terrain west of the Rio Grande could induce some scattered showers and storms in Mexico late this afternoon. Highs will be cooler in the 80s for most locations.
1123 AM MDT Fri May 10 2024 - Warmer and mainly dry today.
1220 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024 (Today through Saturday Night) Quieter and much drier conditions are ongoing across the state early this Fri morning in wake of the cold front that moved through on Thu. and a few deg warmer for Sat in the 70s to low 80s. and a few deg warmer for Sat night into Sun morning.
(Tonight through Saturday night) A weak cold front looks to stall over the area today, providing slightly cooler temperatures and slight rain chances through the short term period. Generally light to moderate easterly to northeasterly winds will continue to advect warm, moist air to the region, although the more northerly component will keep temperatures slightly cooler than we have seen the past couple of days.
105 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024 (Today through Saturday) Key Messages: â¶ Cold front to move across the region today â¶ Low chance for showers and storms through Saturday A cold front is sagging southward and is approaching our CWA this morning. Cooler and drier conditions expected behind the front with afternoon highs today climbing into the mid 80s to 90s. Lows tonight will be in the low to mid 70s accompanied by a low (20%) chance for showers and thunderstorms across the Rio Grande Plains.
This is due to surface ridging that is making its way across the Intermountain West into the Great Plains.
1216 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024 (Today and tonight) The cold front has moved through the area tonight, leaving west central Texas in a much cooler air mass.
A cold front crossing the forecast area at this time will being northwest to northerly winds of 5 to 10 knots to the forecast area, which are expected through the rest of the forecast. Stratus over land portions of the forecast area will continue to mix out, with mostly sunny skies allowing for good afternoon heating, and temperatures rising into the low to mid 80s over inland areas. A drier and somewhat cooler airmass will move over the forecast area behind a southeast moving cold front currently near I-65.
- Warmer and mainly dry conditions throughout the weekend will allow for the current minor river flooding across portions of NW Iowa to improve.
1245 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024 (Today through Saturday) The most recent surface analysis indicates a cold front stretching from Southeast Texas to the Hill Country to the Big Bend.
255 PM EDT Fri May 10 2024 (This afternoon through Saturday) A cold front is presently making its way SE thru the area. Cooler and noticeably drier conditions are on tap for Saturday.
131 PM MDT Fri May 10 2024 Satellite imagery shows anticyclonic NW flow as our region is now solidly under the influence of high pressure aloft. The upper low which had impacted us throughout the week is now cut off over the southwest CONUS.
A diffuse cold front that has either moved through or is just moving through the region will continue over the region. The wind direction and trough is south of BRO, while the thermal and moisture gradient is just starting to move into the northern Brush Country and the Victoria Crossroads.
A cold front is sliding southward across the Florida Panhandle, which is in turn nudging the area of high pressure that has had us in its grasp for the past week further offshore. The aforementioned cold front will slide down the Florida Peninsula then will stall over South Florida.
1213 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024 (Rest of Today) An upper level trough axis will progress through the TN Valley with little fanfare today as a surface cold front pushes through the southern half of Alabama.
1203 PM EDT Fri May 10 2024 High pressure builds across the region through Saturday night.
1219 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024 (Rest of today through Saturday) High pressure centered out west is producing a cool, north flow across Middle Tennessee today, which comes as a welcome reprieve coming off this week's heavy rain and severe storms. An upper trough will finally come through early this afternoon and we can expect some additional cloudiness as a result, and maybe also a light shower or two along the Upper Plateau.
319 PM EDT Fri May 10 2024 A weak ridge of high pressure will bring clear or clearing sky cover over the region today and most of tonight. A low pressure center in northern Michigan will lay a cold front across the Ohio Valley, which will pass east relatively quickly on Saturday. The brief nature of this round of weather had me only put a slight chance of thunder in where the higher likelihood of precipitation was found.
140 PM EDT Fri May 10 2024 Another system will bring showers and thunder this afternoon, before dry high pressure builds in through the weekend. A low pressure center will move east along the slow moving cold front moving south across the area. Gusts will taper off outside of the mountains but linger across portions of the higher elevations.
Temperatures trend warmer today, peaking in the upper 50s to lower 60s. The cutoff low tracks eastward Saturday, as a ridge builds in behind. Northerly flow aloft may bring a few of these to the lower elevations.
1208 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024 (Today through Saturday afternoon) The first piece of the rain puzzle is getting into place as a cold front moves through the Permian Basin early this morning. This moisture and the higher terrain west of the Pecos River will help widely scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop in the Big Bend and lower Trans Pecos this afternoon with the help of daytime heating. Convection increases overnight as an upper low over the western United States sends an upper level disturbance towards West Texas and eastern New Mexico.
1227 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024 (Today and tonight) Easterly surface winds in the wake of a cold front will bring much cooler temperatures today. Highs generally in the low-to-mid 70s will be seen area wide. Higher cloud cover is expected to persist through much of the day as an upper ridge axis moves over the region. The pattern begins to change later this evening as an upper low that has been stalled over southern Nevada for some time will finally start to slowly move eastward.
Satellite imagery showing some mid-level clouds this morning in association with the upper low over the Great Basin.
428 PM EDT Fri May 10 2024 High pressure builds across the region through Saturday night.
1241 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024 The cold front has pushed southeast of the area and the chance for rain has ended.
1258 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024 Updated aviation portion for 18Z TAF issuance - A quick moving cold front will bring showers and a few storms to the region late this afternoon into this evening.
(This evening through Saturday) The cold front has finally moved south of our area, with drier air moving in from the northwest. As cooler and drier air continues to advect southward, temperatures should be allowed to dip down into the 50s areawide, with a few upper 40s not out of the question across the far northeast Alabama valleys.
As for as convection goes, the HREF has a few updraft helicity tracks that are on the high side tomorrow afternoon, but CAPE values are less than 1000 J/kg and think probabilities for anything actually severe are under 10 percent.
(Rest of today through Saturday) High pressure centered out west is producing a cool, north flow across Middle Tennessee today, which comes as a welcome reprieve coming off this week's heavy rain and severe storms. An upper trough will finally come through early this afternoon and we can expect some additional cloudiness as a result, and maybe also a light shower or two along the Upper Plateau.