Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1229 AM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025 (Tonight) Rather benign weather tonight as we remain under high pressure influence from the NE. Storms that developed along the SE edge of said high pressure today in NE AL and NW GA have drifted south into central AL leaving us with a clear and dry forecast for the remainder of the night.
(Tuesday through Wednesday night) Another hot day is expected on Tuesday with max temperatures forecast to be a touch warmer than today. This should help push a cold front into the area on Wednesday.
16 Previous short-term discussion: (This evening through Tuesday) East-northeast flow aloft is located over Central Alabama, between a stout mid-level ridge axis extending eastward from a strong mid-level anticyclone centered over Colorado and New Mexico, and a mid-level height weakness across the northeastern Gulf and southern Georgia.
For Wednesday, much more seasonal conditions are expected as the mid to upper level ridging retrogrades to the western U. For the second half of this week, mid to upper level ridging over the western U.
- Drier and warmer conditions expected Tuesday and Wednesday. Midlevel ridging strengthens over the Four Corners tonight into tomorrow, with an associated ridge axis pivoting into the northern High Plains. Meanwhile, low-level thermal ridge expands from the Southwest northward through the Great Basin into the northern Rockies. Our area remains on the eastern periphery of the thermal ridge, but subsidence/clear skies associated with the rising heights and the arrival of a drier air mass should promote near-optimal diurnal heating. Relatively weak background flow will emphasize the importance of localized flow perturbations and associated convergence, such as over the Black Hills/Pine Ridge and areas of differential land use/cover, including the Badlands/Sandhills, where one or two storms cannot be ruled out.
Highs will range from the low to mid 90s each day with apparent temperatures in the low 100s.
/NEW/ /Through Tuesday Night/ The upper level ridge will continue to retrograde westward towards the Four Corners today allowing a few weak disturbances to ride around the eastern and southeastern periphery across North and Central Texas. In the lower levels, a weak cold front will begin to sag southward through the Central Plains, in response to a broad trough over the Upper Midwest and Ohio Valley. Additionally, the recent streak of above-average August heat will unfortunately persist under the continued influence of the ridge.
130 AM EDT Tue Aug 19 2025 Broad high pressure will remain across the Northeast through Tuesday. Dry weather will return late in the week as high pressure builds into the region. High pressure will maintain fair weather through tonight, although there will be some increase in higher level clouds. High pressure shifting into eastern Canada will continue to maintain dry weather through Tuesday, although clouds will thicken through the day, with a few showers possibly moving into the Niagara Frontier late in the day as a mid level trough approaches the region. Incoming mid level trough and surface wave will increase rain chances Tuesday night into Wednesday. A trough axis near the region will maintain low chances of showers Wednesday night.
305 AM EDT Tue Aug 19 2025 High pressure will remain across the Northeast today, providing mostly dry weather. An area of low pressure will approach the region tonight and showers and a few thunderstorms will be possible through Wednesday. Dry weather will return late in the week as high pressure builds into the region. High pressure is centered across northern Quebec and dry weather and light southerly winds will continue through the morning hours. Ample convergence within an inverted trough and still decent PWAT values in the 1.
348 AM EDT Tue Aug 19 2025 High pressure builds east over Ontario this evening as low pressure move into the region from the west. A warm front will lift north Tuesday into Wednesday with the cold front moving through on Wednesday.
Hot and mainly dry conditions and expected today across northern Arizona as a strong area of high pressure begins to build into the Four Corners region. Given the more favorable position of the high, moisture does look to gradually increase starting today. Even so, given the 596-598 dam ridge, strong subsidence aloft will act to suppress any storms that do develop, thus mainly isolated activity is expected at best.
A persistent ridging pattern will lead to a warming and drying trend across the region through the forecast period.
1056 PM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025 - Much welcomed return of dry weather following the passage of a cold front. We'll keep a slight chance for an isolated shower or two across eastern MN/western WI in the short term, though those chances will cease following the ongoing cold frontal passage. Afternoon highs will range from the low to mid 80s across south/west MN to the upper 70s east of I-35 and north of I-94. Large scale amplification of a ~590s dm ridge over the Four Corners region will push the active storm track north into southern Canada this week.
However, we are in a conditionally unstable environment with surface dewpoints in the lower 70s. With the RAP an exception, none of the high-res models have picked up on these showers. Dry and muggy conditions are expected tonight with low temperatures in the low/mid 70s, and light winds.
High pressure will track from southeast Canada into northern New England tonight, providing continued dry and cool conditions into Tuesday. An upper level disturbance and low pressure system will bring the next chance of showers Tuesday night into Wednesday.
304 AM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025 - Cloudy and cooler today, with areas of fog this morning mainly west of the Mississippi River.
Wednesday will see somewhat cooler temperatures behind the front, bringing most of the area out of advisory level conditions (the exception being southeast Oklahoma).
- Shower and thunderstorm coverage will increase Tuesday afternoon and evening as a cold front moves slowly into the region. - Temperatures will trend cooler behind the front through the end of the week.
This flow will help focus the higher rain chances closer to the west coast, and especially southwest Florida where the moisture will be the deepest. On Wednesday the relatively drier air will be across the region delaying the onset of most of the convection, but by late afternoon and evening we should see scattered showers and thunderstorms once again with the highest rain chances over the interior and eastern half of the Florida peninsula.
550 AM EDT Tue Aug 19 2025 High pressure will cross the region through tonight, then begin to move east Wednesday.
/Issued 158 AM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025/ /Through Tuesday Night/ The upper level ridge will continue to retrograde westward towards the Four Corners today allowing a few weak disturbances to ride around the eastern and southeastern periphery across North and Central Texas. In the lower levels, a weak cold front will begin to sag southward through the Central Plains, in response to a broad trough over the Upper Midwest and Ohio Valley. Additionally, the recent streak of above-average August heat will unfortunately persist under the continued influence of the ridge.
Today and Tuesday, the upper trough with a stable southwest flow will be present which will keep afternoon temperatures near seasonal norms for the interior.
403 AM MDT Tue Aug 19 2025 - An isolated storm or two can't be ruled out over the Black Hills today - Drier and warmer conditions expected Tuesday and Wednesday. Current water vapor imagery and upper air analysis depicts 500hpa ridge axis centered over the Rockies. At the sfc, broad high pressure sits centered over eastern CO. 500hpa ridge will remain overhead today resulting in warmer and drier conditions. Upper level ridge will take on a more positive tilt through the mid week with low level thermal ridge developing over the Northern Plains. Wednesday should be the hottest day of the week as the low thermal ridge sets up over the CWA with highs in the 90s to low 100s.
A dry cold front is still on track to traverse the region on Wednesday. This front will cause cooler temperatures, but increased westerly winds. A strong ridge of high pressure is expected to build over the region this weekend.
- Expect drier and warmer weather today and Wednesday, with moderate to high heat impacts likely Wednesday afternoon.
Another dry and seasonably cool day is expected across the region today as high pressure continues to shift eastward. High temperatures will be a few degrees warmer than yesterday, climbing into the 70s areawide. With increased cloud cover and precipitation, temperatures on Wednesday will be on the cooler side, with high temperatures only in the 60s to low 70s.
(12Z TAFS) While slightly drier air is working into the area with NE flow, scattered convection is still expected across the region today, with the greatest coverage across SWFL (and thus the highest potential for impacts). Tomorrow looks to be the driest day this week with the lowest potential for impacts. This flow will help focus the higher rain chances closer to the west coast, and especially southwest Florida where the moisture will be the deepest. On Wednesday the relatively drier air will be across the region delaying the onset of most of the convection, but by late afternoon and evening we should see scattered showers and thunderstorms once again with the highest rain chances over the interior and eastern half of the Florida peninsula.
1027 AM EDT Tue Aug 19 2025 High pressure will cross the region through tonight, then begin to move east Wednesday.
622 AM EDT Tue Aug 19 2025 High pressure will remain across the Northeast today, providing mostly dry weather. An area of low pressure will approach the region tonight and showers and a few thunderstorms will be possible through Wednesday. Dry weather will return late in the week as high pressure builds into the region. High pressure is centered across northern Quebec and dry weather and light southerly winds will continue through the morning hours. Ample convergence within an inverted trough and still decent PWAT values in the 1.
646 AM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025 - Cloudy and cooler today, with areas of fog this morning mainly west of the Mississippi River.
1014 AM EDT Tue Aug 19 2025 High pressure will remain across the Northeast today, providing mostly dry weather. An area of low pressure will approach the region tonight and showers and a few thunderstorms will be possible through Wednesday. Dry weather will return late in the week as high pressure builds into the region. Ample convergence within an inverted trough and still decent PWAT values in the 1.
Strong insolation this morning beneath ridging surface and aloft has led to temperatures warming rapidly. This high humidity will again combine with near record high temperatures in the west for heat index values between 110F and 115F.
Mild conditions through midweek as an upper low moves east into British Columbia. High pressure will build over the Pacific Northwest this weekend for warm and dry conditions.
732 AM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025 Upper ridging remains in control of the forecast across the region maintaining deep layer northerly flow over the forecast area. As upper ridging slowly retrogrades westward by the end of the week, temperatures gradually cool to near normal featuring highs in the upper 80's to lower 90's. Overnight lows generally stay in the lower to middle 70's through the end of the week. Isolated to scattered showers and storms can be expected each day, increasing in coverage late week into the weekend thanks to the upper ridge shifting away from the area.
The system looks pretty large on satellite, and we can see some of the higher cirrus clouds across our forecast area are from the "exhaust" of Erin.
647 AM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025 - A weak upper level ridge aloft and northerly flow will bring about hot and humid conditions through Wednesday with late in the afternoon thunderstorms which may bring locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds.
720 AM EDT Tue Aug 19 2025 High pressure will maintain dry weather today. Scattered shower and thunderstorm chances will return tonight and Wednesday with a weak cold front.
Meanwhile, temperatures along the island chain are already near 90 with unfortunate dewpoints up to the lower 80s. The system looks pretty large on satellite, and we can see some of the higher cirrus clouds across our forecast area are from the "exhaust" of Erin.
126 PM PDT Tue Aug 19 2025 Warmer weather is expected by the middle and latter part of the week.
319 PM EDT Tue Aug 19 2025 * Cold front approaches from the west, but stalls briefly over western PA before moving through Central PA on Wed. * High pressure over eastern Canada will help keep Erin offshore and PA dry as the hurricane passes our latitude. SHRA/TSRA will move in from the NW, but likely not get into the Lower Susq by morning. The low clouds should re-establish themselves tonight, and may lead to a patch or two of DZ, but likely not enough to paint in the grids. Cold front gets to the OH/PA border by sunrise.
(This evening through Wednesday night) Upper level high pressure continues to dominate from the Four Corners Region to the Panhandles. Another day of warm temperatures in the lower to mid 90s is expected this afternoon with a slight chance for some isolated summer convection. Tonight under mainly northerly flow aloft on the western periphery of the upper high some subtle perturbations may spark some additional convection.
Breezy winds near ridgetops are anticipated in the Owyhee Mountains, with primarily light terrain driven winds elsewhere.
A dry and weak cold front pushes in from the west-northwest through the day on Wednesday.
1126 AM MDT Tue Aug 19 2025 - High pressure today brings well above normal temperatures and very dry conditions with relatively light winds. - Wednesday will see near record high temperatures as high pressure continues, with some locations east of the divide hitting 100 degrees.
CAMs are hinting at the potential for thunderstorms to form ahead of the incoming cold front through northwest Alabama and portions of southern middle Tennessee. Low temperatures should drop into the low to mid 70s.
1233 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025 - Cloudy and cooler today, with areas of fog this morning mainly west of the Mississippi River.
229 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025 - Cooler and drier weather is forecast for the rest of this week and through this weekend. A long-awaited cold front is currently pushing south through the southern CWA. This discontinuity is due to a lag between the front and the cooler air it's ushering in. Very low shear paired with the high SBCAPE has allowed for pulse convection yet again this afternoon. The lag of the cooler airmass will be obvious tonight as low temperatures only drop into the upper 60s to low-70 - not much cooler than last night. The push of cooler air is due to arrive tomorrow morning, and this is when we'll finally feel the difference. 850 mb temperatures will quickly fall from the low-20s into the mid to upper teens.
1119 AM MDT Tue Aug 19 2025 - An isolated storm or two can't be ruled out over the Black Hills today - Drier and warmer conditions expected Tuesday and Wednesday. Current water vapor imagery and upper air analysis depicts 500hpa ridge axis centered over the Rockies. At the sfc, broad high pressure sits centered over eastern CO. 500hpa ridge will remain overhead today resulting in warmer and drier conditions. Upper level ridge will take on a more positive tilt through the mid week with low level thermal ridge developing over the Northern Plains. Wednesday should be the hottest day of the week as the low thermal ridge sets up over the CWA with highs in the 90s to low 100s.
338 PM EDT Tue Aug 19 2025 High pressure will maintain dry weather today. Scattered shower and thunderstorm chances will return tonight and Wednesday with a weak cold front.
Although these thunderstorms are expected to generally dissipate this evening, a number of models show redevelopment of showers and storms before sunrise near and ahead of a cold front that will be moving through the area overnight.
This will bring a cold front through the area this afternoon and evening from north to south.
Additionally, a low chance (20%) of showers and thunderstorms is forecast through northwest AL and portions of southern middle TN ahead of an incoming cold front from the northwest. Low temperatures are forecast to drop into the low to mid 70s.
639 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 (Tonight through Tuesday night) The major player for the short term forecast will the elongated mid- level ridge over Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley. As for temperatures, the highs temperatures for tomorrow are expected to be around the mid 90s. The low temperatures for tonight and tomorrow are expected to be in the 70s.
A low pressure system currently centered over Arkansas and Missouri will make its way northeastward this evening. Then as the low tracks farther northeast by daybreak, shower activity will also shift northward.
700 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 (Tonight through Tuesday night) Presently there is a broad upper ridge over the GoM / Gulf Coast States, a trough taking shape across the Central to Southern Plains, and a cold front curved from S MO through Ctrl TX. Over the next 24H, we will see the upper ridge shoot off to the Atlantic coast of FL as what is now PTC#9 moves north into the GoM and the front descends further south.
A cold front will move through the region Monday night through Tuesday, bringing high temperatures into the upper 70s and afternoon thunderstorms in the portions of northeast Mississippi and the Tennessee river valley.
Across the CWA this afternoon, skies are sunny as high pressure transitions through the area. Other than this, high pressure will dominate the area for dry weather. For temps, a range from the upper 70s into the lower 80s will persist in the short term period, especially around midweek.
Weak ridge of high pressure is over Iowa this afternoon but despite the high pressure, some moisture has been moving into southeast and even parts of central Iowa. The northern system will drag the thermal trough over Iowa on Tuesday.
627 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 - Chances (20-25%) for scattered light showers return this evening as a cold front moves across the region. Should see breezy conditions quickly diminish this evening as cloud cover builds ahead of an advancing cold front. Winds during this time look to become northwesterly in the wake of FROPA, leading to a slightly cooler day. As such, have afternoon highs in the lower 70s under partly cloudy skies.
A cooler night is on tap for the area tonight with patchy fog possible across much of the area. The forecast for late week into the weekend is more complicated and is highly dependent on the interaction of PTC 9 and the aforementioned upper level low.
There are differences on the track of the low but the mean positioning would take the low and upper wave across nrn IN into south central lower MI.
Winds will stay mostly south-southwesterly and light through the morning hours tomorrow ahead of a cold front that will enter the far southern Texas Panhandle and northern South and Rolling Plains during the afternoon hours.
Quiet weather with temperatures 5 to 10 degrees above normal will persist into early October as a ridge of high pressure holds over our region. There are some high clouds in the southern Great Basin moving along the periphery of the high pressure system, currently centered over southern Oregon. Very little discernible change in the day-to-day weather is in store for our region through this week and into the next as we remain under a mean area of high pressure.
Temps have bounced back into the 60s/70s at lower elevations today, and have started to see a couple mesonet sites in the low 80s around Pueblo at mid-afternoon. On the plains, weak cold front will drop south through the area shortly before sunrise, stirring up some briefly gusty north winds along and east of I-25 into mid-morning Tue. On Tuesday, air mass will continue to dry out as upper level high expands from the Great Basin into the central Rockies.
This is due to a very narrow ridge moving over the area, but this is already beginning to move out and become replaced by the next trough. A surface cold front is also tagging along today, but this will be fairly weak, just enhancing northerly flow for a few hours and knocking down boundary layer temperatures slightly. Cloud cover through the night should also keep temperatures warmer than last night for most, despite the cold front. We will be hard pressed to get any precipitation out of this system, with a few sprinkles over the High Plains at best. The anomalous ridge currently positioned just off of the Oregon coastline will move eastward Tuesday into Wednesday, setting up directly overhead by Wednesday.
Low level winds have backed this evening in response to emergence of next upstream mid/upper level trough across the Central Plains. This low level frontogenetic flow may support enhancement to showers from central IL into NW IN/SW MI late tonight/early Tuesday. A low pressure system currently centered over Arkansas and Missouri will make its way northeastward this evening. Then as the low tracks farther northeast by daybreak, shower activity will also shift northward. Wednesday will be mostly dry, but a few lingering showers may still be possible as the upper trough crosses the Great Lakes.
Dry and warm weather will continue across the region as high pressure builds.
158 AM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024 A wave of low pressure will bring showers and thunderstorms to the Ohio Valley tonight and Tuesday.
258 AM MDT Tue Sep 24 2024 Some mid level cloud decks overnight associated with upper jet dynamics will dissipate this morning as a high pressure ridge aloft builds over the region. Highs will push into the lower 80s today, followed by upper 80s to lower 90s for Wednesday.
Upper low dropping through Iowa from Minnesota will keep rain and possibly an embedded thunderstorm mainly east of the Mississippi.
947 PM PDT Mon Sep 23 2024 A ridge of high pressure will deliver above normal temperatures through Wednesday.
109 AM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024 High pressure centered to our east will keep mainly dry conditions in place through Tuesday.
(Today through Tonight) Water vapor imagery this morning shows an upper-level trough digging into the Great Plains while surface obs reveal a cold front to our west over Missouri & Arkansas. A few showers may linger overnight, especially across the Plateau where the cold front looks to stall.
(Today through Wednesday) A mid to upper level trough will continue to push off to the east over the Ohio River Valley as an mid level ridge builds in from the west. A weak surface cold front will remain stalled to the north of the region along Central Texas. Tomorrow however, the mid to upper level trough is expected to track further south providing for more lift for storms to initiate, though drier air aloft will keep these mostly isolated to scattered in nature.
1102 PM EDT Mon Sep 23 2024 An amplifying upper level trough and slow moving frontal system will bring showery conditions to Central Pennsylvania through at least Wednesday, along with a few rumbles of thunder. A moist llvl easterly flow will continue to sock in widespread stratus and ridge-shrouding fog overnight through the mid morning hours Tuesday across the bulk of the CWA east of the Alleghenies. Recently issued a Dense Fog Advisory for Schuylkill Cty, focused on the I-81 corridor that runs along the highest terrain of the county and experiences the greatest, orthogonal upslope component to the wind in this setup. Given slightly better lift with this low- pressure system overhead coupled with enhanced moisture, have retained likely PoPs on Wednesday with highest chances during the late morning to early afternoon hours.
938 PM MDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Well above normal temperatures are expected through Wednesday as upper level ridging moves over the Northern Rockies, with some locations potentially reaching 90 degrees on Wednesday.
A cooler night is on tap for the area tonight with patchy fog possible across much of the area.