Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
612 AM CDT Sat Aug 31 2024 Updated aviation portion for 12Z TAF issuance - A cold front will bring a chance of showers and isolated storms to northern Wisconsin this evening. and Sunday Sunny skies and warm temperatures are expected today as winds shift to the southwest ahead of an approaching cold front. The right entrance region of a 125 kt jet at 300 mb will move across northern Wisconsin this evening, as the surface cold front moves across the area as well. The atmosphere is rather dry, so there should only be a broken line of showers and thunderstorms ahead of the cold front.
Daytime highs on Sunday will also be seasonably cool over the eastern half of the state with highs in the lower 70s. Areas along and west of the Highway 83 corridor will be near normal.
635 AM EDT Sat Aug 31 2024 Cold front exits today. Secondary cold front passes through the southern Great Lakes Sunday. High pressure then dominates through mid week. Expecting convection to resume over the next few hours as the low level forcing strengthens. The passage of the first cold front will bring an airmass change, and this change will be amplified by a secondary cold front that will push through north to south 15-21Z Sunday. Canadian high pressure will gradually build east into the Great Lakes region Sunday night and persist overhead through the short term period. Temperatures will be well below their normal values as a much cooler airmass remains in place behind the reinforcing cold front. Overnight lows Sunday night settle in the low 50s for most, slightly warmer in the mid 50s along the lakeshore.
The low levels of the atmosphere remain dry, so the largest impact will be strong, gusty winds. Meanwhile, a closed low will approach the California coast on Sunday, which will tighten pressure gradients across the southwestern Great Basin.
506 AM CDT Sat Aug 31 2024 (Today and tonight) Precipitation has ended across the entire area as the associated cold front has departed. With more potential for sunshine, highs will be slightly warmer today, generally in the mid 80s in and around Lubbock.
615 AM CDT Sat Aug 31 2024 A wetter and cooler pattern has arrived across the Midsouth. Rain and thunderstorms will be widespread today through tomorrow, tapering off late Sunday as a cold front moves through the region.
(Now through Sunday) The mid/upper ridge will breakdown as an upper trough over the Great Lakes region digs southward over the eastern CONUS over the weekend. By late this afternoon, the highest coverage (30-40%) will occur along and west of the Alabama River, with isolated coverage across the eastern half of the forecast area.
JKL A relatively quiet weather pattern will continue over our region through the short term period as high pressure aloft prevails. A backdoor wind shift to north/northeast winds today will result in somewhat cooler temps than yesterday with readings in the 80s. Clear skies and dry conditions continue through Sunday night as the ridge remains the dominant feature.
Light showers are progressing along the US/Canada border in northwest MN ahead of the approaching cold front. The large scale pattern features mid/upper troughing centered over Hudson Bay and ridging over the southwest US, placing our region in NW flow aloft.
A broad high pressure system over the Intermountain west is bringing an easterly flow to the area with enough moisture for a chance of thunderstorms over the weekend. The ridge will reorient into a blocking position across southern CA and Arizona early in the new work week.
754 AM EDT Sat Aug 31 2024 - Start of a trend toward cooler and drier air today - Upcoming week features dry weather near/below normal temperatures - Start of a trend toward cooler and drier air today A fair end to climatological summer today, with mostly sunny skies and high temperatures near to slightly above normal. With a synoptic-scale upper level trough digging into north-central Ontario and the Great Lakes, the air behind tonight's cold front will be cooler for Sunday with highs in the 70s. There could be some sprinkles making it down into central Michigan with the cold front early Sunday morning.
344 AM MDT Sat Aug 31 2024 - Dry weather continues through Sunday, with only an isolated shower/storm possible over the higher terrain.
1213 PM CDT Sat Aug 31 2024 (Today and tonight) Precipitation has ended across the entire area as the associated cold front has departed. With more potential for sunshine, highs will be slightly warmer today, generally in the mid 80s in and around Lubbock.
229 PM MDT Sat Aug 31 2024 - Isolated showers and thunderstorms across the higher terrain, especially the Continental Divide, this afternoon/evening and once again Sunday afternoon.
The end result will be a partly cloudy, warm and muggy night with lows remaining in the low to mid 70s.
Very dry pattern continues through short term as upper ridge remains in place. The high pressure will keep temperatures quite warm, though smoke inundation will hold temperatures down where it is thickest, mainly across the central mountains.
215 PM CDT Sat Aug 31 2024 - A cold front today brings breezy winds and a chance for showers and an isolated severe thunderstorm which could produce damaging winds.
On Sunday, an upper level ridge will remain centered near the Four Corners Region, with an upper level low across northern Mexico and southern Arizona. Currently, there is upper level troughing over the Great Lakes, with ridging over the southeast, and another upper level ridge near the Great Basin area. South of the Great Basin ridge is a weak upper low over southeastern AZ.
1226 PM CDT Sat Aug 31 2024 Updated aviation portion for 18Z TAF issuance - A cold front will bring a chance of showers and isolated storms to northern Wisconsin this evening. and Sunday Sunny skies and warm temperatures are expected today as winds shift to the southwest ahead of an approaching cold front. The right entrance region of a 125 kt jet at 300 mb will move across northern Wisconsin this evening, as the surface cold front moves across the area as well. The atmosphere is rather dry, so there should only be a broken line of showers and thunderstorms ahead of the cold front.
331 PM EDT Sat Aug 31 2024 Scattered showers and storms are expected into this evening ahead of a slow moving cold front. High pressure will build across the Great Lakes for the first part of the week offering dry and seasonably mild conditions. Mid level flow to amplify as trof settles south from Canada into the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley overnight into Sunday. Skies will become mostly clear with lows from the lower 50s north to the lower 60s south. Mid level flow to amplify with a mean trof settling s-se from southern Canada into the Great Lakes/New England. Highs will range from the lower 80s north to the upper 80s south of the Ohio River on Sunday.
1204 PM CDT Sat Aug 31 2024 - After above normal temperatures today, much cooler fall-like temperatures return through Labor Day with highs in the low to upper 70s expected.
Isolated storms have formed south of Tucson mainly over the higher terrain.
Aloft a large area of high heights is centered near Utah, leading to a ridge in the western CONUS.
- Temperatures will generally be within several degrees of seasonal normals for highs through the forecast and slightly cooler than normal for lows for the first half of the forecast. Drier and cooler conditions are working into the region with a weak high pressure area sinking southward. That high pressure area is slowly pushing the surface further south and latest subjective surface analysis shows the front is south of the forecast area and situated from northwest Arkansas through southern Missouri. With that area cooling into the lower 60s, to even the upper 50s in sheltered areas, it sets the stage for fog development with 5-10 degrees of crossover between overnight lows and dewpoints from the warmest part of today.
An approaching trough will bring slightly cooler temperatures to the region on Labor Day, with less than a 40 percent chance of maximum temperatures above 100 degrees. An upper level area of high pressure located over the Great Basin will continue to bring above normal temperatures to central California today and Sunday. The ridging pattern will also have the consequence of concentrating smoke from the Coffee Pot Fire closer to the surface as the subsiding air aloft inhibits its dispersion. These conditions will be most evident during the evening and overnight periods as radiation cooling and downslope flow bring the smoke closer to the surface in the lower elevations. While the aforementioned ridge is sitting over the Great Basin, an upper level low pressure trough is in the process of approaching northern California from the open waters of the Pacific.
Conditions Sunday will remain fairly similar to this afternoon as another push of cooler and drier air pushes into northeast Kansas. Low-level CAA and surface ridging will persist into Labor Day leading to another very pleasant day with morning lows in the mid 50s and afternoon highs topping out in the upper 70s.
322 PM EDT Sat Aug 31 2024 * Cooler temperatures and low humidity can be expected Sunday through the middle of the week.
145 PM MDT Sat Aug 31 2024 Strong upper level ridge will continue to bring warm and dry conditions through the remainder of the weekend.
242 PM MDT Sat Aug 31 2024 - Dry weather continues through Sunday, with only an isolated shower/storm possible over the higher terrain.
1144 AM MDT Sat Aug 31 2024 - Dry weather continues through Sunday, with only an isolated shower/storm possible over the higher terrain.
200 PM CDT Sat Aug 31 2024 - A secondary cold front arrives tomorrow, reinforcing the cooler and drier environment in place across central and southeastern Illinois. A secondary cold front will move through tomorrow, reinforcing the cooler and drier environment, making this Labor Day holiday very pleasant.
A very dry atmosphere has settled over the Northern Rockies thanks to our resident ridge of high pressure. This ridge will continue to strengthen through Sunday, causing high temperatures across western Montana to return to the upper 80s to mid 90s.
A strong T'storm is still possible over mostly Marion county where the low level airmass will be the most unstable with higher PWATs values near climatology around 1. Highs will be hot away from the coast into the low to mid 90s with upper 80s at the beaches under partly cloudy skies and perhaps a few showers south of St Augustine through early afternoon. Tonight, the low level ridge will shift east from over GA into the Atlantic waters with low level flow aloft becoming more southeasterly late tonight. Lows will be in the low 70s for most inland areas, the mid 70s along I-95 and the upper 70s along the St Johns river and along the coast.
The airmass will remain the same, but a mid level trough may add a bit more lift in the upper levels for convection. The high res models are all over the place with coverage and timing. Took the timing trends of the HRRR, but leaned towards the higher coverage of other models.
Short wave ridging at 250mb will move overhead during the overnight hours. The ridge axis will move east of the area during the daytime resulting in slight height falls in the second half of the day. Upper flow will be increasing as well as winds back to the southwest in the wake of the departing ridge.
1025 AM MDT Sat Aug 31 2024 - Dry weather continues through Sunday, with only an isolated shower/storm possible over the higher terrain.
Low temperatures are forecast to mostly range the mid to upper 70s while rural locations could see temperatures fall into the low 70s.
(This evening through Sunday night) Currently there is a mid to upper level ridge over much of the western CONUS with a ridge dipping into the Upper Midwest and north-eastern US. Over northern Mexico into the northern Gulf of Mexico several small areas of low pressure exist. The high pressure to the west is expected to keep temperatures near normal today and tomorrow. However, one of these areas of low pressure to the south is expected to move north into parts of eastern NM, West Texas, stopping just short of the TX Panhandle.
Dry and stable conditions with light winds will continue today under an upper ridge.
The cold front is currently along a Roseau to southern Red River Valley line, with gusty northwest winds in its wake. CAMs still have the idea of something firing in the mid to late afternoon, and quickly tracking across the LOW area. UPDATE Light showers are progressing along the US/Canada border in northwest MN ahead of the approaching cold front. The large scale pattern features mid/upper troughing centered over Hudson Bay and ridging over the southwest US, placing our region in NW flow aloft.
DS/12 (Now through Sunday) The mid/upper ridge over the area will breakdown slightly through Sunday as upper trough over the Great Lakes region digs southward over the eastern CONUS over the weekend. At the surface, a weak ridge extending from the Western Atlantic across the Southeast States will persist, but weaken slightly. Highs today are running several degrees cooler than expected, but still in the upper 80s and lower 90s for most locations. Highs on Sunday should be in the lower 90s for most locations, but some upper 80s along the immediate coast and isolated locations with mid 90s over the interior.
1247 PM CDT Sat Aug 31 2024 Precipitation associated with the coastal trof continues to remain largely offshore this morning although with a few bands and individual cells working inland.
229 PM CDT Sat Aug 31 2024 Tonight and Sunday: mid afternoon water vapor imagery/RAP analysis showed the circulation around a center of low pressure along the northeast Texas coast. The low pressure system along the Texas coast is expected to shift slowly to the southwest tonight and Sunday. With less convection Sunday, temperatures will top out a degree or two warmer than this afternoon. Residual cloud cover and the abnormally moist airmass over our CWA will help keep morning lows slightly warmer than normal.
- After a brief warming trend mid week there will be another shot of cooler air returning to southwest Kansas late week along with a chance for thunderstorms (20-30%). The ensembles were in good agreement over the Labor Day weekend with moving an upper level trough from Canada into the Great Lakes Region, while an upper ridge over the western United States shifts east toward the Rockies. As the upper trough exits Canada, cooler air will begin to build into the Northern Plains as an area of high pressure moves into the Upper Mississippi Valley.
336 PM CDT Sat Aug 31 2024 - Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms expected this afternoon and evening along a cold front. - Drying out Sunday, with cooler and less humid conditions expected for Labor Day. High pressure to the north will gradually build across the Great Lakes Sunday into early this week. This will push cooler and less humid air into the region. Temperatures on Sunday should range from the mid to upper 80's with much lower humidity as dewpoints falling into the lower 60's by the afternoon.
The strong (130 knot) upper level jet is poking into southwest Ontario, the area behind the surface cold front (which was moving into the arrowhead of Minnesota). These features will continue to push eastward tonight, replaced over the next day or so by a flattening 500mb ridge. Further south into the LOW area, the shear remains, but the CAPE is almost non-existent. CAMs continue to show a few cells dropping down through the LOW area through the late afternoon/early evening, moving at about 50 mph or more. Overall, the severe threat in the LOW seems quite low, but will continue to monitor upstream activity for the next few hours.
Current water vapor satellite imagery shows an upper-level ridge dominating the western CONUS and troughing over the eastern CONUS, leaving the Mid-Mississippi River Valley in northwest flow. Despite this persistent layer of clouds and a cold front just south of the CWA, warm and humid air is allowing for surface-based CAPE values of 1000-2000 J/kg this afternoon across southeast Missouri and southern Illinois.
124 PM EDT Sat Aug 31 2024 - Start of a trend toward cooler and drier air today - Upcoming week features dry weather near/below normal temperatures - Start of a trend toward cooler and drier air today A fair end to climatological summer today, with mostly sunny skies and high temperatures near to slightly above normal. With a synoptic-scale upper level trough digging into north-central Ontario and the Great Lakes, the air behind tonight's cold front will be cooler for Sunday with highs in the 70s. There could be some sprinkles making it down into central Michigan with the cold front early Sunday morning.
Subsidence on the west side of the upper trough has limited rain/thunderstorm coverage across the Keys this afternoon despite the weakly cyclonic and confluent BL flow.
Low level trof/low axis that has been situated just to our east will begin a slow transition to the south- southwest Sunday & Sunday night.
Elsewhere, look for highs tomorrow to range in the mid to upper-80s, with overnight lows ranging in the low to mid-70s.
112 PM CDT Sat Aug 31 2024 A very moist airmass covers the Lower MS Valley between a cold front approaching from the northwest and a tropical disturbance along the Gulf Coast. Expect showers and thunderstorms to develop near the cold front across MO this afternoon. A wetter and cooler pattern has arrived across the Midsouth. Rain and thunderstorms will be widespread today through tomorrow, tapering off late Sunday as a cold front moves through the region.
The 31/12Z HREF shows scattered storm coverage with convective initiation starting between 1-2 PM over the higher terrain and continuing through sunset. /issued 300 AM MST Sat Aug 31 2024/ A broad high pressure system over the Intermountain west is bringing an easterly flow to the area with enough moisture for a chance of thunderstorms over the weekend. The ridge will reorient into a blocking position across southern CA and Arizona early in the new work week.
1014 AM CDT Sat Aug 31 2024 A very moist airmass covers the Lower MS Valley between a cold front approaching from the northwest and a tropical disturbance along the Gulf Coast. Expect showers and thunderstorms to develop near the cold front across MO this afternoon. A wetter and cooler pattern has arrived across the Midsouth. Rain and thunderstorms will be widespread today through tomorrow, tapering off late Sunday as a cold front moves through the region.
Effective shear is borderline around 20-25kts but should increase slightly, and DCAPE is relatively low, but lapse rates between 8-10C/km raises a possible damaging wind threat for convection that fires ahead of a cold front progged to cross overnight. KEY MESSAGES: -Scattered to isolated activity will continue tonight into Sunday morning as a cold front crosses the region.
While the local waters remain generally under the influence of broad high pressure extending across the tropical north Atlantic, a second area of high pressure building into the northern US pushing a weakening frontal boundary into the Southeast will shunt the Atlantic ridge axis down towards North Florida.
Discussion: So far, diurnally driven convection has largely been tied to the higher terrain throughout our forecast area, namely the plateau and the mountains from TN northward into VA. May still see some low 90s for highs in the southern valley tomorrow given later onset of convection there, but elsewhere highs should be notably cooler tomorrow due to cloud cover and rainfall.
On Sunday, an upper level ridge will remain centered near the Four Corners Region, with an upper level low across northern Mexico and southern Arizona.
1241 PM CDT Sat Aug 31 2024 - A cold front will bring scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms to the region, mainly this afternoon and tonight. - It will dry out gradually Sunday, with cooler and less humid conditions expected for Labor Day. A cold front located across the Midwest will push south and east into the region today through tonight. High temperatures today will be a bit cooler thanks to plentiful cloud cover, reaching the middle to upper 80s. However, dew point temperatures will be sticky, generally in the lower to middle 70s. Areas further north look to stay dry with cooler and less humid air filtering southward behind the cold front. High temperatures will reach the middle to upper 80s, but dew point temperatures will drop into the lower to middle 60s from north the south.
737 PM EDT Sat Aug 31 2024 (Through Sunday) UA ridging remains the rule through the weekend, thus keeping PWATS in check this aftn ranging from 1. Will be seeing the UA ridge slowly shift south and east throughout the period, due to an impinging frontal boundary moving in from the northwest. Overnight temps will be in the low to mid 70s, with Sunday daytime highs in the mid 90s.
626 PM CDT Sat Aug 31 2024 - A secondary cold front arrives tomorrow, reinforcing the cooler and drier environment in place across central and southeastern Illinois. A secondary cold front will move through tomorrow, reinforcing the cooler and drier environment, making this Labor Day holiday very pleasant.
531 PM CDT Sat Aug 31 2024 - Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms expected this afternoon and evening along a cold front. - Drying out Sunday, with cooler and less humid conditions expected for Labor Day. High pressure to the north will gradually build across the Great Lakes Sunday into early this week. This will push cooler and less humid air into the region. Temperatures on Sunday should range from the mid to upper 80's with much lower humidity as dewpoints falling into the lower 60's by the afternoon.
Analysis shows a broad low pressure/coastal trough from along the mid Texas coast into southwest Louisiana with a mid/upper level low spinning over southeast Texas. Once again, activity over land areas should gradually decrease by midnight, then nocturnal shower activity will redevelop over the coastal waters into extreme southwest Louisiana and coastal southeast Texas near the low center.
508 PM MDT Sat Aug 31 2024 - Dry weather continues through Sunday, with only an isolated shower/storm possible over the higher terrain.
- Seasonably mild and dry through the middle of the week with another storm system possible late in the upcoming week The mid/upper ridge was situated over the Central Great Basin/Northern Intermountain region today while an ill-defined trough was bisecting parts of the central CONUS as we remain on the southern periphery of weak northerly/northwesterly mid/upper flow. This front will usher in cooler air for Fri-Sat with below normal values anticipated.
745 PM EDT Sat Aug 31 2024 * Cooler temperatures and low humidity can be expected Sunday through the middle of the week.
A front will progress slowly south across NE OK tonight, eventually drying out the low levels.
1058 PM EDT Sat Aug 31 2024 * Cooler temperatures and low humidity can be expected Sunday through the middle of the week.
- Remnant showers and storms will continue through the evening as a cold front advances from the northwest. Isolated showers and storms will likely continue into the late evening as a cold front advances from northern Ohio. However,updraft growth is capped at 15kft (just above the freezing level); probability still remains low on convection becoming strong and/or severe. KEY MESSAGES: -Scattered to isolated activity will continue tonight into Sunday morning as a cold front crosses the region.
913 PM CDT Sat Aug 31 2024 - A secondary cold front arrives tomorrow, reinforcing the cooler and drier environment in place across central and southeastern Illinois. A secondary cold front will move through tomorrow, reinforcing the cooler and drier environment, making this Labor Day holiday very pleasant.
(Through Sunday) UA ridging remains the rule through the weekend, thus keeping PWATS in check this aftn ranging from 1. Will be seeing the UA ridge slowly shift south and east throughout the period, due to an impinging frontal boundary moving in from the northwest. Overnight temps will be in the low to mid 70s, with Sunday daytime highs in the mid 90s.