Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Gusty winds and much cooler temperatures are also expected. That 00Z suite of guidance looks to now favor a more northerly trajectory, with the bulk of the energy moving through Nevada and Utah after the low ejects. Forcing across Arizona also looks to be less, but still enough to generate a brief 1-2 hour period of steadier rain showers moving west to east Sunday morning and afternoon with the cold front. Behind the front, low-level moisture looks to remain which will allow for some lingering upslope showers along the higher terrain through the rest of the overnight hours. 30" across the lower elevations across central and western Arizona, with potentially only up to a tenth in the more rain shadowed areas and across the Little Colorado River Valley and Navajo Nation. In the higher terrain, 0.
Key message(s): - Dry, warm, and breezy weather is expected across the area today as a dry cold front slowly approaches from the west. Winds will pick up through the day as the pressure gradient increases out ahead of our approaching trough and associated cold front. Lows overnight should be elevated considering winds aren't expected to be calm, so look for lows generally in the low to mid 50s ahead of the front. Key message(s): - Warm and breezy on Sunday with the passage of a dry cold front.
Because of this, the NBM90th percentile was used to increase afternoon highs a couple degrees warmer. The thermal ridge is expected to linger through early Saturday morning thus leaving warm lows tonight in the upper 40s to mid 50s. Cloud cover will increase tonight as a closed low moving across central Canada will help force a mid-level wave into the northern plains. This feature will then compress the thermal ridge well into the southern CONUS during the daytime hours on Saturday.
/Issued 517 PM MST Fri Nov 14 2025/ - Meteorological Overview: A cold front is currently making its way south out of Canada bringing some breezy conditions and precipitation to the region.
1105 PM CST Fri Nov 14 2025 - Record high temps this afternoon, with cooling temperatures behind a cold front overnight.
940 PM CST Fri Nov 14 2025 - Cold front slides southward tomorrow afternoon, bringing somewhat cooler temperatures to the region by Sunday.
Otherwise, most of the mountain snow will be over the higher terrain of the Rocky Mountain Front and precipitation looks to diminish and end for all areas by early afternoon. There will be a brief period of transient ridging later today through early Sunday before additional Pacific troughs slowly meander through the Northern Rockies via weak and disorganized flow aloft.
Otherwise cooler & dry this weekend, though still mild for mid-November with highs in the upper 40s and 50s.
514 AM CST Sat Nov 15 2025 - A cold front moves through the area this morning. Slightly cooler, yet still above normal temperatures are expected through the weekend.
510 AM CST Sat Nov 15 2025 - Cooler this weekend behind a cold front with seasonable temperatures continuing this week.
- Above normal temperatures may return to portions of South Florida towards the middle and the end of the week as mid level ridging strengthens over the region. At the surface, high pressure will remain parked over the Florida Peninsula through the entire weekend. With high pressure holding strong combined with plenty of dry air throughout the mid to upper levels, this will allow for the the dry conditions to remain in place through the weekend as PWATs hover between 0. High temperatures will remain right around climatological normals for today and Sunday as they will rise into the lower 80s across most areas each afternoon.
Light to breezy southwest surface winds overnight will wane Today as high pressure ridging/subsidence leads to lighter and more variable surface winds. The warmest temperatures of the week are expected this afternoon, as the Columbia Basin reaches the low to mid 60s.
358 AM CST Sat Nov 15 2025 - A cold front arrives today but a mild start will still have highs in the 50s and 60s. Gusty northwest winds behind the cold front passage.
- A cold front arrives today but a mild start will still have highs in the 50s and 60s. Gusty northwest winds behind the cold front passage.
519 AM CST Sat Nov 15 2025 - Breezy conditions will be experienced today, with a continuation of seasonally mild weather, despite most of the day in cold advection behind a cold front. Looking to our northwest, a rapidly moving cold front is found from northwest Iowa to near Minneapolis as of 1 AM. This would keep us well our of record territory, but still quite mild, in the lower 60s north, to upper 60s central, and near 70 in the south. Cool high pressure will eventually be centered over our CWA by Sunday night. Under the high pressure ridge Sunday night, light winds will help temperatures fall to the mid 20s northeast, to lower 30s southwest (under increasing mid clouds).
- Cooler temperatures expected Sunday night behind a dry cold front.
It has been another warm November day with temperatures in the 60s to lower 70s, despite a weak cold front moving through this morning and gusty NW winds between 25-35 mph. Cooler temperatures are expected for tomorrow with highs in the upper 40s to mid 50s (north to south); high pressure in control will lead to mainly sunny skies and NW winds will hold between 10-20 mph.
224 PM EST Sat Nov 15 2025 A cold frontal boundary will move through the region tonight bringing a round of rain showers.
Advective precipitable water products highlight a very dry moisture field upstream, as continental high pressure centered over the state of Georgia continues to dominate the sensible weather for the Florida Keys. From synopsis, high pressure centered over the Southeast U.
- Meteorological Overview: Slight ridging moving in this afternoon has helped pushed out morning precipitation. The main concern overnight tonight is relative humidities raising near or at 100% and light winds along the Hi-line/northern Chouteau County will produce freezing fog. Areas that get dense freezing fog may develop icy spots on pavements and cause hazardous driving conditions. Weakening forcing aloft combined with warmer temperatures aloft will keep precipitation and mountain snow light overall.
117 PM CST Sat Nov 15 2025 - A cold front brings cooler and dry air giving near-critical fire weather conditions this afternoon for parts of east- central MN and northwest WI.
(This evening through Sunday) We are starting to sound like a broken record, but above normal temperatures and dry conditions will continue through the next 24 hours as an upper level ridge continues to dominate the weather across West Central Texas. A weak front is forecast to stall in the vicinity of the Big Country, so highs across the northern Big Country will be a few degrees lower, in the low 80s.
Showers will develop as we head into this evening and a cold front moves southeast through the region. A drier and cooler airmass will settle into the area for Sunday. Despite the cloudy conditions, strong southwesterly flow ahead of an approaching cold front has pulled warm and moist air from the lower Ohio Valley northeastward into the local area. Clouds continue develop within the warm air advection occurring throughout the lower atmosphere, however, no precipitation has formed. Into the evening hours, mid-level lift will increase as the cold front drops southward through the area. High pressure building in from the west and low pressure off to the northeast provides northwesterly flow across the area tomorrow. The northwest winds prevent temperatures from warming too far with high temperatures cooler, within a few degrees of seasonal normals.
113 PM EST Sat Nov 15 2025 High pressure will hold over the Southeast ahead of a moisture- starved cold front that will move across NC on Sunday.
A ridge of high pressure overhead today will bring mostly sunny skies to southern areas, but clouds will remain across the north.
1053 AM CST Sat Nov 15 2025 - Breezy conditions will be experienced today, with a continuation of seasonally mild weather, despite most of the day in cold advection behind a cold front. Looking to our northwest, a rapidly moving cold front is found from northwest Iowa to near Minneapolis as of 1 AM. This would keep us well our of record territory, but still quite mild, in the lower 60s north, to upper 60s central, and near 70 in the south. Cool high pressure will eventually be centered over our CWA by Sunday night. Under the high pressure ridge Sunday night, light winds will help temperatures fall to the mid 20s northeast, to lower 30s southwest (under increasing mid clouds).
Temperatures are slightly cooler today in the wake of an earlier frontal passage. That will be the case tomorrow as well with temperatures back into the upper 60s under the ridge axis.
1134 AM EST Sat Nov 15 2025 Dry and mild today before rain returns along a cold front overnight.
300 PM CST Sat Nov 15 2025 - Cooler on Sunday, though highs will still peak above-normal for most locations.
Key message(s): - Dry, warm, and breezy weather is expected across the area today as a dry cold front slowly approaches from the west. The area is sitting between high pressure to the southwest over the FL panhandle and low pressure over the Great Lakes. Elevated sustained winds will keep lows on the warmer side too, generally only in the low to mid 50s.
1113 AM CST Sat Nov 15 2025 - A cold front moves through the area this morning. Slightly cooler, yet still above normal temperatures are expected through the weekend.
1228 PM EST Sat Nov 15 2025 Dry and mild today before rain returns along a cold front overnight.
1122 AM CST Sat Nov 15 2025 - Cooler this weekend behind a cold front with seasonable temperatures continuing this week.
* Hot and humid this weekend with highs in the low to mid 90s. At the surface, a cold front is draped NE to SW through Lower MI and northern IL/MO. Temperatures are hovering in the lower 70s under partly cloudy skies. Today, weak mid-level troughing will remain in place as the cold front to our northwest sinks to the Ohio River by this evening. Tonight, rain chances gradually taper off as the low levels stabilize. A weak cold front will continue to sink south through the forecast area on Thursday.
528 AM MDT Wed Aug 13 2025 - Hot today/Thursday with elevated to near-critical fire weather conditions for parts of northeastern WY/southwestern SD - Slight risk (level 2 of 5) of severe thunderstorms later this afternoon/evening - Better QPF chances this weekend, but low confidence in details 08z surface analysis had lee trough from central MT through central WY with weak boundary from the MT/WY line through northern SD. Water vapour loop featured upper ridge over the southwest CONUS with west/northwest flow over the northern Plains. Plume of steep mid-level lapse rates ahead of it as well as surface moisture return ahead of lee trough will create 1-1. Thursday, upper ridge slides eastward putting CWA under southwest flow aloft. Thermal ridge peaks with a 90% chance (HREF) of 100F from Hot Springs to Philip.
- A subtropical ridge will build across the region toward the end of the week dropping precipitation chances below normal and allowing afternoon highs to climb into the mid to upper 90s.
- There is a slight risk (level 2 of 5) for central/south central South Dakota, and a marginal risk (1 out of 5) south of a line from Mobridge to Redfield and Watertown.
553 AM EDT Wed Aug 13 2025 High pressure to the east will produce more typical hot and humid summertime conditions with afternoon and early evening thunderstorms through mid to late week.
With a broad area of low pressure meandering northward across the Deep South and Tennessee, expect a similar day on Wednesday -- with medium-high (60-80%) chances for showers and storms in the afternoon/evening hours.
Hot, dry, and windy conditions continue to build in today as high pressure builds into the Four Corners region. Isolated afternoon convection is possible over the high terrain this afternoon and is capable of producing lightning and gusty outflow winds. On Thursday a trough over the Great Basin continues progressing eastward, which has pushed the high pressure towards the Southern Plains.
643 AM EDT Wed Aug 13 2025 Increasing clouds with humid conditions can be expected today before a cold front moves in, bringing occasional showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening. High pressure builds back in for the end of the week and into the weekend. A slow moving cold front will push through the region today. Upper level forcing will be weak as as supporting trof flattens out with the best PVA across northern NY and New England. high pressure with drier air returns into the weekend with temperatures above normal during the days and average to cool at night.
Main interest in the short term revolves around the slow moving H500 trough progressing east across the region. This feature has kept and will continue to keep ridging at bay to the SE and SW. As several disturbances lift northeast through the trough, isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop especially during the afternoon/evening hours. By late week into the weekend, the mid-level trough will be well east of the region. In its wake, H500 ridging will become reestablished across much of the central/southern US.
It's a calm, clear, and cool morning across the region with high pressure in place. Otherwise, mostly sunny skies with highs in the low 80s and comfortable dew points are on tap for today. Southerly flow kicks as the warm front lifts into northern Minnesota, with Tds quickly climbing back into the upper 60s/low 70s by the afternoon.
- High pressure brings near normal temperatures and less humid conditions to close out the work week. Cold front on pace to clear the southeast Michigan airspace this morning. A cold front is currently passing eastward across southeast MI early this morning. Surface dewpoints will remain elevated in the mid 60s to 70 range until a secondary front (dewpoint gradient) knocks them down into the low-mid 60s by late evening. The backside of the lingering upper level trough will drop through Wednesday night allowing heights to build through the day Thursday, while high pressure north of the region extends down across the Great Lakes.
Cannot rule out a few very isolated thunderstorms this afternoon through early evening, as a weak upper trough moves southeast over the region, amidst continued cooler temperatures aloft.
Storms will become increasingly confined to the higher terrain across far eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas during the afternoon hours. A mid to upper level trof axis is slowly making its way across the forecast area today. Made some tweaks to the going forecast based on the latest short-term data, highlighting areas along and south of I-40 in eastern Oklahoma, and along and south of the ridge tops of the Boston Mountains in NW AR with PoPs for the afternoon. Weak trough axis will linger across the region today with moist low level airmass typical of summer.
All indications suggest drier, ridging conditions will prevail today and tonight. From synopsis, a broad ridge stretching across the North Atlantic westward to the Florida Peninsula will result in light to gentle east to southeast breezes for the rest of the week through the weekend.
One final day of temperatures ranging 4 to 8 degrees above seasonal normals today, as the center of a high pressure system sits directly over the Desert Southwest. Temperatures will cool heading into the weekend as troughing pushes into our forecast area.
In our west where the lower coverage of convection is expected, temperatures will climb up into the mid 90s and combine with high humidity to result in heat index values between 105F and 110F.
A primary player in today's weather will be a weak low pressure presently situated across the Alabama Gulf coastline which will propagate northeastward through this evening.
Temperatures today will remain in the low 90s across the East Coast, but would reach the mid 90s across the southwest and interior early in the afternoon. Heat indices will reach the low 100s and will approach advisory criteria, but confidence regarding coverage and duration remains poor at this time. Ridging will become more fully established on Thursday and moisture will remain slightly below climatological norms, with sea breeze interactions once again driving scattered convection in the afternoon.
741 AM EDT Wed Aug 13 2025 - A Little Cooler and Drier Next Couple Days - Hot This Weekend With Showers/Storms Possible - A Little Cooler and Drier Next Couple Days Areas of fog and low stratus will lift and scatter out later this morning.
Daily high temperatures will generally be in the low to mid 90s with heat indices in the triple digits each day.
- Slightly more comfortable conditions are expected behind a cold front today, with humidity returning by the end of the week. Otherwise building high pressure over the upper Mississippi Valley will give us a breather weatherwise today. Expect dry conditions amid comfortable humidity with dew points in the low 60s.
621 AM CDT Wed Aug 13 2025 The forecast area remains situated between a weak inverted trough over the central Gulf, a trough moving into the Mississippi Valley, and the subtropical ridge over FL. The trough currently moving into the Mississippi Valley will move eastward today, while the trough/low currently impacting the area becomes absorbed in the longer wave trough. The axis of this trough will push east of the area by this afternoon, with flow aloft becoming more zonal. Meanwhile, a ridge of high pressure will build westward along the Gulf Coast, with high pressure settling into the area for the latter half of the work week.
These storms are being fueled by troughing over the MS River Valley and southern Plains that will push east today as high pressure moves south over the western Atlantic. The higher humidity will support afternoon heat indices near 100 degrees, especially over NW AL where better chances for clearing exist. Lows will fall to the lower 70s.
Storms will become increasingly confined to the higher terrain across far eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas during the afternoon hours. Weak trough axis will linger across the region today with moist low level airmass typical of summer.
Majority of this convection will move into the interior by this evening, but southwest Florida is close enough to the ridge axis so that the overall flow will be rather light and allow a few showers and thunderstorms to move back toward the coast during the evening. Ridging to our north will start to shift south today however we will look to have one more day of southeasterly flow.
633 AM EDT Wed Aug 13 2025 Showers and thunderstorms are possible today as a weak cold front drops south.
- High pressure brings near normal temperatures and less humid conditions to close out the work week. Main item for note in the near term is the near surface cold front that is currently working southward.
(This evening through Thursday) Rain chances will remain on the high end through the rest of the afternoon and into the evening, especially across the eastern half of Alabama. In the meantime, the 500mb ridge will begin to broaden and expand westward over the northern Gulf Coast by Thursday with a westerly flow developing over the atmospheric profile. We're seeing storms just like that currently over the Golden Triangle, north of the Highway 82 corridor in Mississippi.
High pressure builds over the region by the start of the weekend, brining drier weather and an increase in temperatures back into the mid 90s (with a few upper 90s possible).
1157 AM CDT Wed Aug 13 2025 -Quiet conditions, cooler, and less humid today once patchy,morning ground fog burns off.
328 PM EDT Wed Aug 13 2025 - Cooler today and tonight, but high temperatures rebounding above- normal to near-normal for the late week.
Quieter conditions and warmer temperatures return at the end of the week and into the start of the weekend.
247 PM EDT Wed Aug 13 2025 A cold front comes through tonight, bringing an end to the heat and humidity.
For the remainder of this afternoon, mostly sunny skies with temperatures in the 90s are forecast for the area as an upper ridge remains over most of the south and central United States. Winds have picked up as a low pressure center deepens over the Northern High Plains. This evening, there is a small chance for a few showers to move off the higher terrain and into Eastern Colorado. Winds are forecast to remain around 15-20 mph through the night from the south, which should help mix the lower atmosphere and keep temperatures in the 60s. With this and the lower level warm air advection, high temperatures are forecast to be a bit warmer around 100 for most of the area.
1117 AM CDT Wed Aug 13 2025 The forecast area remains situated between a weak inverted trough over the central Gulf, a trough moving into the Mississippi Valley, and the subtropical ridge over FL. The trough currently moving into the Mississippi Valley will move eastward today, while the trough/low currently impacting the area becomes absorbed in the longer wave trough. The axis of this trough will push east of the area by this afternoon, with flow aloft becoming more zonal. Meanwhile, a ridge of high pressure will build westward along the Gulf Coast, with high pressure settling into the area for the latter half of the work week.
We are rather unstable and given the high DCAPE values draped across much of SELA it is not out of the question to get a few wet microburst.
- High pressure brings near normal temperatures and less humid conditions to close out the work week. A cold front is currently passing eastward across southeast MI early this morning. Surface dewpoints will remain elevated in the mid 60s to 70 range until a secondary front (dewpoint gradient) knocks them down into the low-mid 60s by late evening. The backside of the lingering upper level trough will drop through Wednesday night allowing heights to build through the day Thursday, while high pressure north of the region extends down across the Great Lakes.
(Rest of today and tonight) Weak upper trough will continue to be located from the Mid- Mississippi Valley southwest into southeast Oklahoma this afternoon. Upper trough will continue to transition further south and east away from the area as upper ridge across the west begins to shift east out into the Plains.
Severe microburst potential is on the low side once again, but locally heavy rainfall could be a concern. In our west where the lower coverage of convection is expected, temperatures will climb up into the mid 90s and combine with high humidity to result in heat index values between 105F and 110F.
Elevated warm front will bring increased instability through this evening, although capping may also be found through the evening. A cold front is still expected to push across the state on Thursday from west to east. If storms can develop, main threat looks to be large hail initially with any isolated supercells, transition to a wind threat along the cold front. Lows will be cooler in the north in the 50s, to the 60s south.
- A subtropical ridge will build across the Gulf toward the end of the week, dropping precip chances and allowing for higher temps.
* Hot and humid this weekend with highs in the low to mid 90s. Positively tilted mid level trough stretching from the northeast US back into the Ohio Valley, along with a slow moving sfc boundary will keep the scattered showers/storms over the area this afternoon, tonight and into the day tomorrow.
142 PM EDT Wed Aug 13 2025 * Cold front moves in from the north tonight and slows/stalls over the state tonight.
From synopsis, a broad ridge stretching across the North Atlantic westward to the Florida Peninsula will result in light to gentle east to southeast breezes for the rest of the week through the weekend. All indications suggest drier, ridging conditions will prevail today and tonight.
142 PM EDT Wed Aug 13 2025 - A Little Cooler and Drier Next Couple Days - Hot This Weekend With Showers/Storms Possible - A Little Cooler and Drier Next Couple Days Areas of fog and low stratus will lift and scatter out later this morning.