Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Models indicate PWATs will rise to 2+ inches today which will further contribute to the higher coverage of rain. On Monday, a longwave trough will deepen over the Midwest, extending south into the Lower MS River Valley region. This will dampen the ridge across the Southeast, contributing to another day of numerous to widespread showers and storms, especially during the afternoon.
What constitutes a surface cold front (more of a broad wind shift vs. For Monday, a sharpening upper tropospheric trough digs south into Minnesota, with there being enough kinematic support and steepening low-level lapse rates to support at least some convection--though the strength of the cells remains in question given some signal for poorer mid- level lapse rates stunting the vertical growth of the updrafts.
1117 PM MDT Sat Jun 28 2025 - Cooler Sunday and Monday with higher coverage of storms and a threat for some of these storms to be strong to severe. There is currently a cold front in northeast Wyoming that will help to generate an MCS this evening in Wyoming and eastward. The combination of the cold front and outflow winds from the MCS will move southward into northeast Colorado early Sunday morning.
(Today through Monday) Unsettled weather remains likely for portions of South Florida through the end of the weekend and into the new week as a tropical upper tropospheric trough (TUTT) approaches the area from the Atlantic. Now, the approaching TUTT (and the resultant cooler 500mb temperatures and increased dynamical forcing) will help enhance convective activity across the interior and southwest Florida late this evening. Heat indices across the interior and southwest Florida could peak in the low 100s.
We anticipate the low-level air mass will rapidly recover in the wake of this convection, leading to rapid and intense thunderstorm development by late afternoon. One thing to note is that surface dewpoints have climbed into the low 70s across northern Minnesota where less cloud cover has allowed temperatures to climb into the 80s. Another disturbance (vorticity lobe maxima) will move through the region Sunday as a broad mid-level trough pushes eastward. Looking ahead to the holiday weekend, the pattern currently slightly favors a warmer trend for northern Minnesota, with cooler flow over northern Wisconsin.
A slightly stronger cold front will bring more numerous storms on Monday, before temperatures return to near or just slightly above normal by midweek.
The highest CAPE values will be capped, but it's just north of the cap where storms will blow. This high CAPE/low shear environment will favor multi-cell clusters with occasional supercell structures. Monday will be pleasant, but we'll have the upper trough currently over Alberta coming through during peak heating. Cooler temps aloft will allow for the development of some scattered diurnal showers Monday afternoon, with the greatest rain chances north of I-94.
Still a slim chance of a shower/storm in southern PA as the core of the high pressure system will be positioned farther north with lingering moisture along the Maryland border. Increasing sunshine through the day should help temperatures warm into the low-mid 80s north and mid-upper 80s in south central PA this afternoon. Upper-level ridging early in the week will be replaced by upper-level troughiness across the northeastern United States for the second half of the week.
Highs today will once again climb into the low to mid 90s, and while it'll feel plenty hot, heat index values that reach 105 degrees will stay isolated in nature - so I have elected to once again hold off on issuing a Heat Advisory for now.
Guidance has gotten more aggressive with the front associated with upper trough over NE CONUS.
(Today through Monday) The Subtropical Ridge over eastern Texas and an upper level trough over northeastern Mexico will bring deeper moisture over our area today. The trough weakens while the Ridge remains rather stationary on Monday.
High pressure continues to build over the Pacific Northwest, maintaining warm temperatures and abundant sunshine across the region for the start of this week.
The exception may be a few showers/storms across the WV/PA ridges.
718 AM EDT Sun Jun 29 2025 (Today through Monday) Unsettled weather remains likely for portions of South Florida through the end of the weekend and into the new week as a tropical upper tropospheric trough (TUTT) approaches the area from the Atlantic. Now, the approaching TUTT (and the resultant cooler 500mb temperatures and increased dynamical forcing) will help enhance convective activity across the interior and southwest Florida late this evening. Heat indices across the interior and southwest Florida could peak in the low 100s.
Isolated to scattered storms return to the high terrain this afternoon, especially along and north of I-70. While the atmosphere is still rather dry with high pressure building in, enough moisture is progged to be present to produce convection. High pressure will still be overhead Monday as a deep area of low pressure spins off the California Coast.
636 AM EDT Sun Jun 29 2025 High pressure controls the weather pattern through Monday, keeping the area dry.
- A cold front drops into the area today, bringing some slightly cooler air to the region.
624 AM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025 Updated at 618 AM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025 - Slightly cooler daytime temperatures are expected through midweek, due to increased cloud cover and scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms each day.
This will mean that some of those valleys that stayed clear in the morning over the last few days will be slightly cooler from the reduced amount of time in the sun.
623 AM EDT Sun Jun 29 2025 - Slightly warmer and more humid this afternoon with heat indicies in the low to mid 90s. Warm front will begin to edge back north today, allowing for afternoon highs to reach the upper 80s to near 90 even along the lakeshore areas of Lk MI. Better chances arrive Monday afternoon during peak heating, but lack of defined trigger areas still exists before the main cold front arrives late afternoon into the evening. Overall atmosphere will be similar to end of last week with more of a pulse nature to storms and some potential for limited organization as best shear and dynamics lag the cold front.
1004 AM EDT Sun Jun 29 2025 Bermuda high pressure will remain offshore into the early part of the week.
A ridge will continue to build across the Desert Southwest through Monday, with a mostly dry airmass remaining across the region. Continued above normal temperatures with daytime highs exceeding 110 degrees in the lower elevations of the Grand Canyon.
High pressure currently located over Lake Erie affords another dry and VFR forecast period, with the only cloud nearby coming from the MCS well to our northwest. NWP progs are very aggressive in advecting/lifting a relatively shallow 950-850mb warm front through the area into the Lake Huron basin by the afternoon. Expecting a combination of deeper mixing and an uptick in surface dewpoints to bring very warm conditions, heat indices in the lower 90s, although the relatively shallow thetae return will maintain higher static stability and convective inhibition between 2.
- Scattered afternoon and evening storms, with best chance over the higher terrain Today will start off warm and dry as a broad upper high sits off to our southwest. A cold front will surge south across the plains, likely hitting the Palmer by 1-2 PM and moving south from there through the rest of the afternoon. Overnight, precipitation will move off to the east, with lows in the 50s to low-60s over the plains, and 40s in the high valleys. With the front through, Monday will be a fair bit cooler than the last week or so, with highs only hitting the 70s to mid-80s over the eastern plains.
620 AM EDT Sun Jun 29 2025 Bermuda high pressure will remain offshore into the early part of the week.
620 AM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025 - Developing MCV may bring highly localized pockets of strong winds to the Highway 14 corridor this morning.
Scattered storm redevelopment is more likely by midday Monday over inland areas away from Lake Michigan as a weak cold front moves through.
In addition to the rain chances today, afternoon highs are expected to reach the low 90s areawide. Given the highs in the low 90s and dewpoints in the mid 70s, heat index readings will reach 105 degrees in several areas along and west of I-55. Expect overnight lows to dip into the low 70s across our forecast area. Areas along and west of I-55 will see highs in the low 90s.
This outflow boundary has stabilized much of the remainder of the area with temperatures in the lower 70s to mid 80s and cirrus blowoff overhead. Somewhat cooler and drier air works in for the next few periods.
Robust thunderstorm activity could begin by early this afternoon across eastern Kansas, then a second round is possible late tonight into the overnight hours as storms roll off the High Plains. Meanwhile, a fairly stout deep layer trough is trekking its way across the northern plains today and will serve as a catalyst for another round of thunderstorm development across the High Plains later this afternoon and evening.
The hottest day is expected to be Monday, with widespread highs in the low to mid 90s across interior valleys.
126 PM EDT Sun Jun 29 2025 - Slightly warmer and more humid this afternoon with heat indicies in the low to mid 90s. Warm front will begin to edge back north today, allowing for afternoon highs to reach the upper 80s to near 90 even along the lakeshore areas of Lk MI. Better chances arrive Monday afternoon during peak heating, but lack of defined trigger areas still exists before the main cold front arrives late afternoon into the evening. Overall atmosphere will be similar to end of last week with more of a pulse nature to storms and some potential for limited organization as best shear and dynamics lag the cold front.
345 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025 - Breezy through Monday, with slightly cooler temperatures and lower humidity.
Westerly flow continues today before weakening as a ridge builds over the area in response to a trough digging along the CA coast. This will bring warmer temperatures and a 10-20 percent chance of thunderstorms beginning on Monday afternoon lasting through the week.
Meanwhile, further aloft, a pretty thick deck of cirrus clouds are diving southwestward associated with a tropical upper tropospheric trough (TUTT) cell centered east of the Bahamas. From synopsis, broad surface ridging will continue to rebuild over the Atlantic and support gentle to moderate east to southeasterly breezes across Florida Keys coastal waters.
Lower column moisture will advect into the region Monday morning with increasing dewpoint temperatures yielding unstable conditions behind a lifting warm front. NWP progs are very aggressive in advecting/lifting a relatively shallow 950-850mb warm front through the area into the Lake Huron basin by the afternoon. Expecting a combination of deeper mixing and an uptick in surface dewpoints to bring very warm conditions, heat indices in the lower 90s, although the relatively shallow thetae return will maintain higher static stability and convective inhibition between 2.
Subsequently, the chances of precipitation tomorrow throughout Deep South Texas are moderate to high (60-80%) with the highest chances being east of I- 69C.
With increasing high clouds across the area, expect heat indices to peak in the lower to upper 90s along/north of I-80.
From synopsis, broad low- level ridging will continue to rebuild over the North Atlantic and support gentle to moderate east to southeasterly breezes across Florida Keys coastal waters, veering to the southeast to south and modestly slackening throughout the week.
317 PM EDT Sun Jun 29 2025 A warm front lifts northeastward through the area tonight, followed by a cold front Monday night.
1255 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025 - Developing MCV may bring highly localized pockets of strong winds to the Highway 14 corridor this morning.
Late tonight an upper trough digs into the Dakotas with a weak backdoor cold front.
136 PM EDT Sun Jun 29 2025 High pressure controls the weather pattern through Monday, keeping the area dry.
- The deeper surge of Gulf moisture will move away with an upper level ridge building in providing hot and humid conditions with mainly isolated to widely scattered afternoon showers and storms with daytime heating and the seabreeze. - Typical summertime weather is expected by the 4th of July weekend with a ridge to the west and trough to the east to provide a daily chance of afternoon showers and storms with hot and humid conditions.
236 PM MDT Sun Jun 29 2025 - Afternoon convection will bring some gusty outflow winds to the area, mainly over the higher terrain. As expected, increased moisture and daytime heating have allowed convection to fire over the higher terrain this afternoon.
Amplification of a northern stream trough occurs across the Midwest on Monday.
* Through the upcoming week, expect slightly cooler temperatures and less humid. Thunderstorm activity initially initiated along the low level jet early this morning which majority of the storms were sub- severe but bringing brief heavy rainfall across Doniphan county and then additional storms produced heavy rainfall over Leavenworth. What confidence do have is that there a severe potential that shifted later, so 3am to 10am with the main threats being damaging winds and with the warmer and moist environment can easily see heavy precipitation across an area (mainly west of Highway 65) in which already had widespread rainfall of 2-3 inches already.
In the meantime, temperatures in the upper 80s to near 90 and dew points in the mid to upper 70s will cause heat index values to reach the upper 90s to lower 100s in spots from midday through late afternoon until storms overspread more of the region and lower air temperatures back into the low 80s.
Heat indices in the mid 90s to near 100 degrees this afternoon to be in the low to mid 90s Monday, highest in southeast IL.
1255 PM EDT Sun Jun 29 2025 High pressure controls the weather pattern through Monday, keeping the area dry.
This could begin to develop into an area of low pressure once this happens, with some gradual tropical or subtropical development thereafter as it drifts slowly off the U. As the low slowly drifts away, a gradual return to more typical summertime weather is likely to take place, with warm, humid conditions returning and more typical summertime thunderstorm patterns returning.
1228 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025 Updated at 1228 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025 - Slightly cooler daytime temperatures are expected through midweek, due to increased cloud cover and scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms each day.
211 PM EDT Sun Jun 29 2025 High pressure gives way to a warm front Monday afternoon and evening with a chance of thunderstorms.
Pattern Synopsis: Ridging will continue to slide east of the region tonight as troughing digs over the northern Great Plains. Said troughing will amplify with time on Monday as it slides over the Upper Midwest, eventually working overhead Monday night. At the surface, the broad parent cyclone will slowly pivot across James Bay and over parts of Quebec through the period. An attendant weak cold front looks to swing across northern Michigan during the day Monday. Expectation for the daytime Monday is that the combination of outflow from morning storms and the diffuse cold front working across the area will likely focus scattered showers and storms across the southeast CWA, with chances beginning late morning/early afternoon as the airmass destabilizes along/ahead of the boundary.
Current mesoanalysis shows the theta-e ridge axis across central KS and the models tend to keep the surface based instability axis across central KS through the night. This outflow boundary has stabilized much of the remainder of the area with temperatures in the lower 70s to mid 80s and cirrus blowoff overhead. Somewhat cooler and drier air works in for the next few periods.
755 PM EDT Sun Jun 29 2025 High pressure will extend across the region through early week. A cold front will then approach the area around the middle of the week, possibly stalling near the coast through late week.
This flow and trough are providing just enough lift and shear to allow for severe convection in our area. With a strong cap above the low level cool and moist air, it will take a very long time for the boundary layer to mix out.
First will be to knock highs a few degrees cooler over east central KS where clouds and precip later into the day still have readings in the lower 70s. Will be watching the convection off the high plains closely this evening as it could end up being impactful. This outflow boundary has stabilized much of the remainder of the area with temperatures in the lower 70s to mid 80s and cirrus blowoff overhead. Somewhat cooler and drier air works in for the next few periods.
552 PM MDT Sun Jun 29 2025 - Afternoon convection will bring some gusty outflow winds to the area, mainly over the higher terrain. As expected, increased moisture and daytime heating have allowed convection to fire over the higher terrain this afternoon.
A surface Atlantic ridge extends westward across Florida, resulting in gentle to moderate easterly breezes across the Keys this evening. Meanwhile, an upper level Low is rolling slowly westward across the Bahamas. This has contributed to weakness in the lower level ridge and associated weak troughing aligned over the Bahamas. Surface ridging will hold across Florida through the overnight period, keeping breezes mostly gentle easterlies. The lower level troughing, associated with the approaching upper level low, will remain off to our east through the night. Skies will generally remain mostly cloudy thanks to copious cirrus wrapping around the upper lows western flank. Expect overnight lows in the lower 80s and dew points holding in the mid 70s. Atlantic ridging reaching across the Florida Peninsula will produce gentle to moderate easterly breezes on Keys waters through the overnight period.
706 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025 - Breezy through Monday, with slightly cooler temperatures and lower humidity.
Ridging over the Western US will keep the start of the week warm and dry. Temperatures will trend cooler midweek into the holiday weekend, near or a bit warmer than normal.
The higher moisture will continue to spread westward Monday and Monday night, with a piece of mid level forcing breaking off the remnants of Tropical Storm Barry and moving northwest, up the Rio Grande, Monday and Monday night. The moisture and weak forcing will allow for widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms Monday afternoon and evening farther west into the area, closer to the Rio Grande and Winter Garden region, with isolated coverage of showers farther east, where influence from the weak ridge just to the east and light concentrations of Saharan dust reside.
- Cooler and less humid to start the week, hot and humid to end the week. Several complexes of thunderstorms have developed along this trough. Instability in the range of 2,000 to 3,000 J/Kg of ML CAPE was present along and just ahead of this trough axis. Short- term models and radar trends have the trough axis and thunderstorms nosing into north central Kansas over the next couple of hours. The trough is forecast to move south of our area by mid afternoon. A few isolated storms may develop by the afternoon if we can clear out and destabilize behind the departing trough and morning complex of storms. Cooler and less humid air will move in Monday night into Tuesday.
In addition to drier weather, this ridge will also herald in some cooler, slightly below to near normal temperatures.
CAMs show a decrease in activity after sunset, but more activity is expected to develop prior to dawn on Tuesday as an upper trough approaches the area. More scattered storms will develop during the day on Tuesday as the trough moves through the area.
Discussion: Our region will be between the influence of a strong upper-level ridge across the western North Atlantic and an amplifying upper- level trough across the northern Great Plains and Mississippi Valley. For this reason, highest thunderstorm chances will be across the higher elevations of the mountains and plateau. As troughing amplifies across the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys tonight, height falls will increase the probabilities of scattered showers overnight and into Tuesday morning.
Surface analysis and MPX radar imagery at 2pm showed a cold front stretched out from between New Ulm and Mankato, up to the Lake Minnetonka region and off toward Siren in northwest WI.
236 AM MDT Mon Jun 30 2025 - Cooler and drier today. Once the storms clear, a cooler day is forecast as the upper trough finishes swinging through the Plains and on the back side of the cold front. Low temperatures are forecast to be a bit cooler in the 50s and low 60s.
This will focus the higher pops of the day to the afternoon hours, mainly in the south and east 1/2 of the CWA, which is generally where SPC is showing a Marginal (level 1) risk for severe storms. Today's highs with cloud cover issues at times, are expecte to be in the lower to mid 80s, with dew point values falling from the lower 70s to mid 60s by evening. Tonight, a pleasant evening is in store for outdoor activies as dew points continue to fall, and temperatures eventually settle back to the lower to mid 60s.
Ridging aloft will gradually intensify after a weak frontal boundary reaches the Four State Region, reducing rain chances by July 4th.
1147 PM MDT Sun Jun 29 2025 - Cooler temperatures are expected Monday with only a few isolated showers or thunderstorms in the afternoon, mainly near the higher terrain of southeast Wyoming. For Monday a few upslope showers or storms may develop off of the high terrain in Wyoming, but probabilities are overall on the low side and we'll see this quickly wane with the setting of the sun. Otherwise today and tomorrow will be the coolest days of the period, with highs today in the 70's to 80's with widespread highs on Monday in the 70's to low 80's thanks to the cold front.
Late tonight an upper trough digs into the Dakotas with a weak backdoor cold front. Upper ridging builds back in on Tuesday.
Meanwhile, to our north we have a weak trough stalled across the eastern third of the U. Tonight as the low level steering flow remains southerly, we could see residual showers and thunderstorms come off Cuba and move northward over the island chain.
117 AM EDT Mon Jun 30 2025 High pressure will extend across the region through early week. A cold front will then approach the area around the middle of the week, possibly stalling near the coast through late week. Monday and Tuesday: Weak, broad low pressure will be present over the Southeast in the upper levels Monday and Tuesday. Temperatures will be consistent with highs both days in the upper 80s/lower 90s, and min temps in the low to mid 70s.
Quiet weather is forecast for the remainder of today, tonight, and much of Monday as an upper-level ridge of high pressure builds into the Pacific Northwest. The ridge will facilitate light offshore flow into Monday, and more notably, warming temperatures. Ensemble NWP is very confident (95% or greater) that the aforementioned upper-level ridge will amplify through Monday and remain in place through Tuesday, leading to hot conditions. Meanwhile, an upper-level closed low will continue to develop off the central California coast, setting the stage for convection in southern/eastern Oregon Monday and Tuesday. Anticipated warming under the upper-level ridge has prompted the issuance of Heat Advisories for most of our lower-elevation areas across northern Oregon and south-central Washington for Monday through Tuesday.