Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
747 PM EDT Tue Aug 5 2025 A large area of high pressure will continue to dominate the Great Lakes and New England through the rest of the week. A strong high pressure will remain centered over Quebec through tonight, with seasonable and mostly dry weather prevailing as a result. The resulting subtle southeasterly shift in the low/mid level flow may circulate some additional moisture over the Ohio Valley into the forecast area to fuel a modest increase in shower/tstorm activity during peak heating tomorrow afternoon.
255 AM EDT Wed Aug 6 2025 - Isolated storms possible over eastern portions of the area Wednesday then decrease late week into the weekend - Progressively warmer and more humid conditions over the next several days. Aloft, guidance shows a weak trough axis passing east of Indiana today which will leave us within a subsident atmosphere. Typically fog- prone locations stand to see the highest chance of patchy fog.
Expansive upper ridging remains centered to our west but in close enough proximity to keep precipitation chances suppressed. Dry conditions will continue into tonight with lows dropping into the low 70s in most spots. Ware (Wednesday through Thursday night) Upper ridging will build in even further on Wednesday and Thursday, with temperatures warming several degrees above average.
Afternoon temperatures in the lower to middle 90s, with heat index values approaching 100 degrees. An upper-level ridge continues to build over the region, with the eastern edge along the Mississippi Valley. This building ridge supports increasing mid-level heights, with highs this afternoon progged to reach into the upper 80s (east) to lower 90s (west). The highest temperatures will be focused along and west of Highway 65, where dewpoints will also be a touch higher in the upper 60s to near 70. Meanwhile, weak energy translating around the top of the ridge will drop southeast late this afternoon into this evening.
1228 AM CDT Wed Aug 6 2025 Updated at 1228 AM CDT Wed Aug 6 2025 - After several cooler than normal days, temperatures will climb to normal levels late this week. Temperatures will continue to increase tomorrow with expected highs in the mid to high 80s everywhere except the plateau, where highs will remain in the lower 80s.
Updated at 1104 PM CDT Tue Aug 5 2025 - A slight warming trend will begin on Wednesday with afternoon highs in the low to mid 90s through the end of the week.
Skies were mostly clear, winds were calm or nearly calm, and temperatures were in the lower 70s to lower 80s. Aloft, an upper ridge situated over portions of the Four Corners region will meander Ewrd into the Srn Plains.
The trough will become more amplified going into Thursday, spreading rain chances for much of the Basin, Kittitas Valley, and large portions of the Eastern Mountains. The pattern will flip to a dry, warmer scenario as ridging re- enters the picture.
1125 PM EDT Tue Aug 5 2025 We have reached the coolest portion of the week after a weak cold front has pushed into the area, but a return to hot temperatures is looking more likely by the weekend.
100 AM EDT Wed Aug 6 2025 Other than spot showers over western New England through Thursday, dry weather with temperatures running around or slightly cooler than normal through the end of the week.
As we remain under the influence of the mid-level trough axis, we will have another afternoon where we could have isolated to scattered showers/storms. Upper ridging currently over the Four Corners region will expand north and eastward towards the end of the week and into the weekend. In response, the upper trough axis that has been over the Ohio Valley will push eastward allowing for drier weather to work in over the region.
WV imagery indicates an upper level high centered across New Mexico with a ridge axis extending northeast through the high plains of extreme eastern Colorado and western Kansas. Near the surface, a lee side trough of low pressure remains anchored in extreme southeast Colorado. Ongoing dry/hot conditions are expected to continue early in the period as the SREF indicates very little change to the overall upper level pattern with the aforementioned upper level high remaining centered across New Mexico through the remainder of the week.
Warm and dry weather continues today as the region sits at the inflection point between low pressure to the northwest and high pressure over the Southwest. Afternoon breezes trend a bit stronger than our typical zephyr today and Thursday, owing to low pressure ejecting across the Pacific Northwest.
The ridge will settle over the Upper Midwest with very little forcing aloft.
Issued 335 AM CDT Wed Aug 6 2025 Today through Thursday: Quiet weather will continue today under the western portion of high pressure centered well to the northeast. Temperatures will continue the slow warming trend today, with highs in the low to mid 80s.
Mainly tranquil conditions are expected overnight into early Wednesday morning with light variable winds and low temperatures in the lower to mid 70s over the Brazos Valley and Piney Woods region, the mid to upper 70s over areas near and south of I-10, and the lower 80s along the coast. We will remain within the southeastern periphery of a mid level high pressure situated over New Mexico and West Texas for the next few days. Although the high pressure will help limit shower and thunderstorm activity, hot moist air and sufficient instability will help develop a few showers and storms over areas south of I-10 during the morning hours, expanding northward towards the Houston metro region in the afternoon.
(Today through Thursday) Upper ridge continues to be parked over New Mexico, while upper trough continues from Lake Huron to west Tennessee to Louisiana. Along and east of the upper trough axis, the airmass remains rather moist, with precipitable water value of 2. The northern end of the trough is expected to be a bit more progressive than the south end, with the north end moving east of the Appalachians by Thursday evening.
Updated at 1241 AM CDT Wed Aug 6 2025 - Low rain chances (20-30%) this afternoon as high pressure system moves in causing lower chances for the rest of the week.
1257 AM PDT Wed Aug 6 2025 - Cooler with showers and thunderstorms Wednesday into Thursday. A couple of disturbances will move into the region on Wednesday and Thursday bringing cooler temperatures with high temperatures mainly in the 70s along with showers and thunderstorms.
This is due to a 596 dam upper-level ridge that has positioned itself over far west Texas and southern New Mexico. This ridge will build slightly northeastward and strengthen through tomorrow. Rain chances will be next to nothing as the strengthening ridge should suppress convection across west central Texas.
We will have a weak upper trough over the region, with a large ridge over the desert SW and in the western Atlantic. Under this trough, there will be little in the way of synoptic forcing for organized precip, but there will be some diurnal instability. Today, the CAMS are generally showing scattered convection developing in the higher terrain of the mountains and Plateau, with some drift into the Valley in the evening before dissipating a few hours after sunset.
- A pattern change to northwest flow and a building ridge will occur over the weekend. Drier air has settled in with brief ridging through today. Westerly winds do pick up this afternoon ahead of weak cold front tonight.
High pressure will dominate the region through the forecast period, resulting in hot daytime highs and mostly dry conditions. Slight chances for high-based showers/storms each day, mainly along the higher terrain. High pressure is currently situated above New Mexico, allowing a slightly better flow of moisture into Northern AZ. The ridge is forecast to strengthen and wiggle around Arizona, peaking in intensity by Thursday.
(Today and tonight) Hot and dry conditions will prevail across West Central Texas through the next 24 hours as an upper level ridge remains centered across New Mexico. Overnight lows will remain mild, in the low to mid 70s.
(Today through Thursday) A strong ridge of high pressure centered over NM and covering the NW half of TX will continue to assert a warming trend in the short-term. The ridge being weaker over the TX coast is allowing a weak push of Gulf air inland to mix a more SE breeze in the late afternoon and evening, but this influence doesn't make it much past the escarpment for any sensible heat relief.
Otherwise, high pressure and dry conditions will persist through the week and into the weekend. With high pressure and upper level ridging remaining in place through the near term, the haze and smoke likely sticks around as the air mass remains in place. Air quality alerts have been extended through today and may be needed again tomorrow if the low level concentration of smoke does not improve. With NW flow aloft as the trough moves in, dry air in the mid levels will mix down and likely cause dew points to fall Thursday afternoon and limits the amount of instability that is able to form so chances of precipitation were lowered to keep chances of rain out of the grids for most of the area.
- Cooler for the end of the week into the weekend. Upper level analysis has high pressure over the western High Plains centered between two trofs - one over the Pacific Northwest and the other over the Mississippi River Valley. At the surface, an area of low pressure is centered just east of the Badlands, with a cold front extending southward through south central South Dakota. Thursday will be the hottest day of the forecast period as strong southwesterly flow develops ahead of the approaching cold front. This will bring warmer air in from the southwest, allowing temperatures in the 90s and low 100s.
Four Corners High Pressure Ridge now taking hold of the west as we enter our next warm-up. Ensemble Probability of Exceedance (PoE) of reaching 100 degrees reiterates the building high pressure ridge moving into the Pacific Southwest.
253 AM EDT Wed Aug 6 2025 Other than a spot shower over western New England through Thursday, dry weather with temperatures running around or slightly cooler than normal through the end of the week.
KEY MESSAGES: - Dry and seasonable weather continues under high pressure. ---------------------------------------------------------------- The Wednesday through Thursday period will feature the continued presence of ridging over the central CONUS with the axis more aligned along the MS Valley. As moisture continues to be advected northward with warmer temperatures, the potential for increased development of showers and thunderstorms Wed afternoon and potentially Thursday afternoon. Ensembles suggest a weak trough passing through the area on Thursday which would result in precip potential during the afternoon. KEY MESSAGES: - Low probability for a stray afternoon shower over the West Virginia ridges through late week.
Upper level ridging extends southwestward across Florida and into the eastern gulf. On the surface, a weak high pressure center in the eastern gulf remains the dominant weather feature through the day. This high pressure will keep a light wind flow over the region today. Farther to the east, northeast of the Bahamas, a weak area of low pressure has a 10 percent chance of tropical development over the next 2 days and a 40 percent chance of development over the next 7 days. By Thursday morning, models continue to develop an area of low pressure north of the Bahamas off the Carolina coastline.
210 AM EDT Wed Aug 6 2025 High pressure will remain over New England through the remainder of the week with temperatures near seasonable averages.
1043 PM PDT Tue Aug 5 2025 - Cooler with showers and thunderstorms Wednesday into Thursday - Dry and warmer this weekend Another weather system will move into the region on Wednesday and Thursday bringing cooler temperatures with high temperatures mainly in the 70s, along with showers and thunderstorms.
349 AM EDT Wed Aug 6 2025 High pressure over Quebec will build southward toward New England and maintain a wedge over the area through the end of the week. Meanwhile, low pressure is expected to form off of the southeastern U.
Water vapor imagery indicates the upper trough axis and axis of tropical moisture pushing east of the area, with drier air filtering in aloft. Guidance is in good agreement in the low stratus deck mixing out/lifting in the afternoon, so temperatures will be back in the 80s, but there will still be considerable cloudiness. Flow aloft will become northerly on Thursday between a strong mid-level anticyclone centered over New Mexico and persistent troughing over eastern portions of the Southeast.
Updated at 1020 PM CDT Tue Aug 5 2025 - After several cooler than normal days, temperatures will climb to normal levels late this week. Temperatures will continue to increase tomorrow with expected highs in the mid to high 80s everywhere except the plateau, where highs will remain in the lower 80s.
- Temps still cooler than normal but they will continue to warm through the end of the week. We are still under the influence of the wedge of high pressure but it is beginning to weaken. 5 to 1 inch Today and Thu across the area with the highest amounts across eastern central portions of the state.
150 AM EDT Wed Aug 6 2025 High pressure remains the dominant feature this week. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms may deliver brief downpours near mountain ridges over the next couple of days, but much of the area will continue to see dry weather. Today and Thursday will be a near rinse and repeat of yesterday as we remain under the influence of high pressure. However, with high pressure overhead and weak flow, expect smoke will meander across the region both today and Thursday, though concentrations should remain highest across central and southern areas. Temperatures are anticipated to drop into the lower 50s to mid 60s by the end of the night.
--------------------------------------------------------------- Disorganized, isolated showers might form again this afternoon as weak moisture advection occurs underneath an upper ridge. 1 inches), guidance has maintained low PoPs across the area with the highest chances peaking around 10% during afternoon hours. KEY MESSAGES: - Dry and seasonable weather continues under high pressure. ---------------------------------------------------------------- Thursday will feature the continued presence of ridging over the central CONUS with the axis more aligned along the MS Valley.
219 AM MDT Wed Aug 6 2025 KEY MESSAGES: 1) Today will feature more sunshine with warmer and dry conditions.
This is a result of a large and anomalously strong upper ridge across the southern United States with a weak trough axis over the west coast. This will continue the southwest flow aloft along with the relative dry weather with slightly warmer afternoon temperatures. A cold front, though dry, will bring a wind shift during the afternoon and evening periods.
857 PM PDT Tue Aug 5 2025 Strengthening high pressure over the southwest states will bring warming through Thursday with Thursday high temperatures 5 to 10 degrees above average for inland areas.
627 AM CDT Wed Aug 6 2025 Updated at 627 AM CDT Wed Aug 6 2025 - After several cooler than normal days, temperatures will climb to normal levels late this week. Temperatures will continue to increase tomorrow with expected highs in the mid to high 80s everywhere except the plateau, where highs will remain in the lower 80s.
407 AM PDT Wed Aug 6 2025 - Cooler with showers and thunderstorms Wednesday into Thursday. A couple systems move by the region Wednesday and Thursday, bringing showers and thunderstorms and cooler temperatures, with highs mainly in the 70s.
1019 AM EDT Wed Aug 6 2025 High pressure over Quebec will build southward toward New England and maintain a wedge over the area through the end of the week. Meanwhile, low pressure is expected to form off of the southeastern U.
612 AM CDT Wed Aug 6 2025 Updated at 611 AM CDT Wed Aug 6 2025 - A slight warming trend will begin on Wednesday with afternoon highs in the low to mid 90s through the end of the week.
713 AM EDT Wed Aug 6 2025 Other than a spot shower over western New England through Thursday, dry weather with temperatures running around or slightly cooler than normal through the end of the week.
RED FLAG Warnings for parts of the higher elevations regions along with Heat Advisories for parts of the plains.
722 AM EDT Wed Aug 6 2025 High pressure remains the dominant feature this week. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms may deliver brief downpours near mountain ridges over the next couple of days, but much of the area will continue to see dry weather. Today and Thursday will be a near rinse and repeat of yesterday as we remain under the influence of high pressure. However, with high pressure overhead and weak flow, expect smoke will meander across the region both today and Thursday, though concentrations should remain highest across central and southern areas. Temperatures are anticipated to drop into the lower 50s to mid 60s by the end of the night.
625 AM EDT Wed Aug 6 2025 - Isolated storms possible over eastern portions of the area Wednesday then decrease late week into the weekend - Progressively warmer and more humid conditions over the next several days. Aloft, guidance shows a weak trough axis passing east of Indiana today which will leave us within a subsident atmosphere. Typically fog- prone locations stand to see the highest chance of patchy fog.
600 AM CDT Wed Aug 6 2025 Updated at 535 AM CDT Wed Aug 6 2025 - Low rain chances (20-30%) this afternoon as high pressure system moves in causing lower chances for the rest of the week.
251 PM CDT Wed Aug 6 2025 The ridge axis and attendant 'heat dome' will continue to drift eastward from upstream.
1226 PM CDT Wed Aug 6 2025 (Today through Thursday) Upper ridge continues to be parked over New Mexico, while upper trough continues from Lake Huron to west Tennessee to Louisiana. Along and east of the upper trough axis, the airmass remains rather moist, with precipitable water value of 2. The northern end of the trough is expected to be a bit more progressive than the south end, with the north end moving east of the Appalachians by Thursday evening.
We are between a trough over the PacNW and high pressure over the southwest US. The aforementioned trough will brush to our north today and Thursday.
144 PM PDT Wed Aug 6 2025 High pressure will remain in control, bringing warmer weather conditions across the area.
(Today and tonight) Hot and dry conditions will prevail across West Central Texas through the next 24 hours as an upper level ridge remains centered across New Mexico. Overnight lows will remain mild, in the low to mid 70s. (Thursday night through next Wednesday) Upper level ridge to continue to be the main weather story for West Central Texas, largely keeping hot and dry conditions in place through the weekend. Afternoon highs will creep up towards the 105 degree mark across the western and northwest Big Country, closer to the center of the upper ridge.
The lack of proximity to the centers of any mid-level/upper highs will allow for near daily chances of showers and thunderstorms each afternoon and early evening, with little significant change day-to-day in temperatures.
(This evening through Thursday night) We are in a fairly stagnant upper level weather pattern with high pressure over the Four Corners, a very weak trough extending from the Great Lakes into the northcentral Gulf, and the Bermuda high extending into the eastern Gulf. The rain will balance with partly cloudy skies to give us fairly normal high temperatures this afternoon and tomorrow in the low 90s.
Tomorrow, as that weak area of low pressure still sits on the southeastern U. Late this week and into the weekend, atmospheric moisture persists under the weak inverted trough and scattered to numerous showers and storms continue each afternoon and evening. High pressure will remain over the waters with light winds around 10 knots or less and slight seas.
The weather today and Thursday will be influenced by a Bermuda high pressure system off the Atlantic coastline. The middle Ohio Valley and central Appalachians remain on the edge of this high, which will allow some weak upper-level disturbances to track through the area. Highs will be in the 70s in the mountains and the low to mid-80s for the lowlands.
Updated at 1210 PM CDT Wed Aug 6 2025 - A slight warming trend will begin on Wednesday with afternoon highs in the low to mid 90s through the end of the week.
From synopsis, a broad area of high pressure across the Gulf and Florida Peninsula will continue to consolidate as a weak tropical wave approaches the Keys from the western North Atlantic.
1051 AM PDT Wed Aug 6 2025 - Cooler with showers and thunderstorms Wednesday into Thursday. A couple systems move by the region Wednesday and Thursday, bringing showers and thunderstorms and cooler temperatures, with highs mainly in the 70s.
Relatively dry and hot conditions are expected to continue as an upper-level ridge remains anchored across the southern Rockies.
Lows Tonight ranging from the lower 70s inland to the mid 70s along the coast.
This MCS is based on the nose of the low level jet, and should gradually decay over the next several hours.
Afternoon temperatures in the lower to middle 90s, with heat index values approaching 100 degrees. Right now, have the highest chances for rain north of I-44. Even with the cloud cover, highs will still reach the lower 90s today.
This is due to some weak forcing/isentropic lift associated with a weak trough axis aloft that extends from central/eastern Kentucky into the Tennessee Valley region.
High pressure will dominate the region through the forecast period, resulting in hot daytime temperatures and mostly dry conditions.
237 PM EDT Wed Aug 6 2025 * High pressure ridging south into PA from Quebec Canada will maintain dry weather and seasonable temperatures through the upcoming weekend. This seems possible with a weakness in the 7H ridging under the right- entrance region of a jetlet at 3H. The low pressure center which could form off the NC coast is likely to be more extra-tropical in nature according to NHC. It should not impact PA at all under the protection of our persistent ridging. High pressure ridging southward from Canada will keep higher dewpoints and the risk of showers at bay for now.
Warm and dry conditions will continue today with breezy afternoon winds ahead of the cold frontal passage tomorrow. Winds will be highest in the Camas Prairie, Central ID Mountain ridgetops, and Lower Snake Plain with gusts up to 30 mph this afternoon. A 15-25% chance of thunderstorms with the cold frontal passage tomorrow will occur over the West Central Mountains and Baker County. Gusts around 25-35 mph will occur over the region during the passage, with the highest gusts in the Owyhee Mountains and Baker Valley.
The area will remain influenced by high pressure centered over the New England and Mid Atlantic regions through the weekend. Elsewhere, some lingering isolated showers over far northeast Ohio and northwest PA should end over the next several hours as an upper trough continues to move east away from the area. Conditions will remain dry overnight through Thursday night with high pressure largely in control across the area. Lows tonight in the upper 50s to low 60s, with lows a few degrees warmer Thursday night. Highs on Thursday in the low to mid 80s.
(This evening through Thursday) Strong upper ridging, centered over New Mexico, will continue to bring hot, dry conditions. (Thursday night through next Wednesday) Upper level ridge to continue to be the main weather story for West Central Texas, largely keeping hot and dry conditions in place through the weekend. Afternoon highs will creep up towards the 105 degree mark across the western and northwest Big Country, closer to the center of the upper ridge.