Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Meanwhile, upper ridging was centered over the Nrn Gulf, with a weak seabreeze having recently developed over portions of extreme SE TX away from the ridge center. However, mosaic radar imagery has shown that this convection has been struggling to move much farther N away from the coast, although the visible imagery depicts that some towering cu is trying to develop farther N over portions of SE TX and along the Lower Sabine Valley. Upper ridging remains progged to build N into the Lower MS Valley this evening/overnight, becoming centered over much of LA Monday.
121 PM EDT Sun Jul 20 2025 Cold front crosses south this afternoon and evening through Monday morning. Showers and thunderstorms are expected again this afternoon and overnight as a cold front approaches from the northwest.
Upper-level ridging continues to dominate and influence surface conditions this afternoon. Mejia (Tomorrow through Sunday) Very similar conditions are expected on Monday as the center of upper-level ridge begins to shift northward over the Lower Mississippi River Valley. This seems reasonable with the ridge expanding and building further west a little. A few locations, particularly in the higher elevations across far northwest AR and far southeast OK, may stay just below advisory criteria by a degree or two.
The feature of interest this week is a Tropical Upper Tropospheric Trough (TUTT) cell currently located north of Puerto Rico.
1231 PM CDT Sun Jul 20 2025 Upper ridging continues to settle in over the area with light flow aloft. This ridging gradually migrates poleward allowing for increasing northeasterly to easterly flow aloft to become established by mid week. Given the aforementioned ridging building in, rain chances remain quite low today.
From synopsis, the high pressure center over the North Atlantic will continue to weaken through tonight and allow breezes to slacken towards light to gentle by Monday.
333 PM EDT Sun Jul 20 2025 A cold front moves through the area tonight. Less humidity and drier conditions to start the work week as Canadian high pressure builds in to the north. As this ridge of high pressure moves into the Canadian Maritimes, heat and humidity return late in the week. Isolated to scattered light showers will remain possible for areas east of Route 15 until 6 or 7 PM this evening, mainly across north central and northeast MD as broad troughing develops. A cold front will cross the area overnight with drier air filtering in on north winds. Cold front will continue to push south of the area Monday afternoon.
Tomorrow will be very similar to today, but perhaps 1-2 degrees warmer. The mid-level disturbance will continue to shift westward as an upper ridge over the southern CONUS expands into our region. We will see less cloud coverage but the breezy conditions will help mix the lower levels, keeping the dewpoints in the 60s to low 70s.
1130 AM EDT Sun Jul 20 2025 Cold front crosses south this afternoon and evening through Monday morning. Showers and thunderstorms are expected again this afternoon and overnight as a cold front approaches from the northwest.
On Monday the ridge over the Gulf starts to build northward, and a trough off the East Coast will deepen, leading to a NW flow through the mid and upper levels across the Appalachians.
High pressure will bring a period of dry, cooler and less humid weather early this week with hot and humid conditions returning for the second half of the week.
(This evening through Monday) A 500mb ridge across the southeast United States extending westward across the state of Texas will continue to provide subsidence across west central Texas tonight into Monday.
Otherwise, the forecast remains on track to see dry and cooler than normal weather through the week. The upper low over SoCal will gradually evolve into an open wave through Monday as a low/trough over the Pacific Northwest deepens. Extensive low pressure troughing will dominate the pattern this week, continuing the drying trend as monsoonal moisture is displaced to the east with the sub-tropical high. This will continue to keep daytime high temperatures near or below seasonal averages for all areas, including the lower deserts. SCT cumulus based around 10000 feet will develop over the ridges 19-02Z. Slight chance (10% probability) SHRA/TSRA over mtn ridges 21-00Z.
, an alternative from the synoptic models pushes this moisture to the southeast of the CWA into New Mexico and southeastern Colorado as the trough from the Pacific Northwest eases south over the Western States. With the increased clouds and shower activity, temperatures will be slightly cooler tomorrow. Upper-level heights increase heading into the new week as broad high pressure builds over the Plains.
The highest gusts in our higher resolution ensemble forecast (HREF) data is pushing 55 mph so far.
Upper level ridging will remain predominant over the region for the upcoming week, and the resulting subsidence will continue bringing mostly sunny skies and seasonably hot weather to Deep South Texas.
Broad upper level ridging centered in the north central gulf extends over Florida and the southeast U. On the surface, high pressure located in the eastern gulf will keep a light wind flow and low rain chances over the region today.
1143 AM EDT Sun Jul 20 2025 An area of showers and thunderstorms will move through the region this afternoon along and ahead of a cold front.
An upper-level trough will track south over the area today with low level onshore flow.
At the upper levels, a positively trough extends through the Pacific Northwest as a broad ridge remains over the southern CONUS extending upward into the Mississippi River Valley. The latest surface analysis has a low over south central South Dakota, with a stationary boundary extending east and west from the low and a trough extending southward into west central Nebraska. The highest shear is located closer to central South Dakota, with 30-40 kt effective bulk shear. Mid level flow will continue to strengthen across the northern Rockies into the northern Plains as the western trough amplifies on the Pacific Northwest Coast. With the ridge amplifying, temps in the 90s and dew point temperatures around 70 degrees, heat indices will push 100-105F over south central South Dakota.
604 PM CDT Sun Jul 20 2025 Upper level ridging will remain predominant over the region for the upcoming week, and the resulting subsidence will continue bringing mostly sunny skies and seasonably hot weather to Deep South Texas.
339 PM MDT Sun Jul 20 2025 - Afternoon showers and storms develop over the high terrain each day. - A warmer, drier airmass gradually moves in for the latter half of the week. Nocturnal cloud cover will keep tonight's lows a handful of degrees warmer than we've see the last few nights. On the flip side, daytime highs will likely be a handful of degrees cooler tomorrow for the same reason.
The latest short range mesoscale forecast models continue to depict a narrow band of rain showers along a weak cold front that will move through the area tomorrow. Temperatures will be 6 to 10 degrees cooler than normal behind the front bringing a brief two day break in the hot weather before the heat returns later in the week. Cold front will spread rain showers from W to E early Mon morning thru evening, weakening as they enter SW Idaho. Surface winds: variable 5-15 kt, becoming SW-NW 10-20 kt with gusts to 20-30 kt with cold front. A 15% chance of light rain after Mon/19Z due to slow-moving cold front.
905 PM EDT Sun Jul 20 2025 A secondary cold front will bring a few light showers tonight as it passes from north to south across the forecast area, however most notable will be another shot of much cooler and drier air in its' wake that will set the stage for a very refreshing and pleasant start to the new work week.
724 PM EDT Sun Jul 20 2025 Broad upper level ridging centered in the north central gulf extends over Florida and the southeast U. On the surface, high pressure located in the eastern gulf will keep a light wind flow and low rain chances over the region today.
646 PM CDT Sun Jul 20 2025 (Tonight through Monday night) A weak 500 mb low over the region in tandem with a TUTT (Tropical Upper Tropospheric Trough) around the 200 mb level as seen on upper level water vapor imagery near the coast will continue to contribute mid to high level clouds across the region from today into Monday. The overnight lows remain warm and humid with some low-level stratus developing in addition to the higher level cloud cover.
530 PM MDT Sun Jul 20 2025 - Afternoon showers and storms develop over the high terrain each day. - A warmer, drier airmass gradually moves in for the latter half of the week. Nocturnal cloud cover will keep tonight's lows a handful of degrees warmer than we've see the last few nights. On the flip side, daytime highs will likely be a handful of degrees cooler tomorrow for the same reason.
In addition, lower level CAPE remains quite limited with some drier layers through the lower levels. Surface conditions will remain seasonably warm with lows in the lower to mid 80s and dew points remaining in the mid 70s. The weakening ridge will allow breezes to slacken a bit further through the night. An Atlantic ridge stretching across Florida will weaken overnight.
627 PM CDT Sun Jul 20 2025 Updated at 625 PM CDT Sun Jul 20 2025 - Low to medium (10-50%) rain/storm chances are forecast from the western Permian Basin to the higher elevations west of the Pecos River this afternoon and evening. This is likely due to a combination of highs a couple of degrees hotter than yesterday allowing us to hit the convective temperature and a weakness in the upper level ridge increasing instability slightly. An upper low currently over Southeast Texas will drift west overnight and into West Texas Monday.
1157 PM MDT Sun Jul 20 2025 - Afternoon showers and storms develop over the high terrain each day. - A warmer, drier airmass gradually moves in for the latter half of the week. Nocturnal cloud cover will keep tonight's lows a handful of degrees warmer than we've see the last few nights. On the flip side, daytime highs will likely be a handful of degrees cooler tomorrow for the same reason.
High pressure surface and aloft will continue to strengthen over the region resulting in temperatures topping out a degree or two warmer than on Sunday. Normal afternoon highs run in the lower 90s. The high temperatures will combine with the high humidity to result in heat index values between 105 and 110 at most locations warranting a Heat Advisory but, in our far northwest heat index values will exceed 110 and an Excessive Heat Warning remains in effect until this evening.
Upper ridging will remain over the Southern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley today and through a good portion of this week.
A low pressure system will move into the Pacific Northwest today, ushering in dry air form the southwest.
Temperatures along the Island Chain are in the lower to mid 80s with dew points in the mid to upper 70s. Weak Atlantic ridging remains over the Keys and much of Florida early this morning. Weak Atlantic ridging will remain the name of the game from today through tonight.
132 AM MDT Mon Jul 21 2025 - Gusty winds continue for the next few days - Potential for some dry thunderstorms - Critical to near critical fire conditions through midweek Early morning satellite imagery shows fairly substantial cloud cover in places across central and northern Idaho associated with an upper level trough across the Pacific NW.
248 AM EDT Mon Jul 21 2025 The passage of a series of cold fronts has set the stage for a cooler and dry stretch of weather to start the week. High pressure will remain in control for the next few days, but there will be a warming trend for mid and late week.
115 AM EDT Mon Jul 21 2025 Cooler and drier air will filter into the region overnight with the skies clearing. High pressure will bring a period of dry, cooler and less humid weather early this week with hot and humid conditions returning for the second half of the week.
Discussion: In the upper levels, a ridge is over the Central U. and a trough is over the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic. At the surface, a cold front is currently over Central Indiana and Central Ohio.
Slight chance for rain today with cooler interior temperatures. A weak cold front is moving through the area early this morning. Mid-level moisture and cooler upper temperatures could promote thunderstorm development.
Updated at 150 AM CDT Mon Jul 21 2025 - Low to medium (10-60%) rain/storm chances are forecast from the western Permian Basin to the higher elevations west of the Pecos River this afternoon and evening. - A trend toward warmer and drier conditions looks to return during the latter half of the week.
Red Flag Warnings have been extended into Monday for the lower elevations of southern and central Wyoming.
High level clouds associated with a mid/upper level low to our north, have been spreading southward across S TX and is expected to continue tonight. With thinner, more transparent clouds, max temps will be a couple of degrees warmer than Sunday's values.
KEY MESSAGES: - Some morning fog possible this morning - High pressure and cooler temperatures are expected today - Better fog potential tonight and below normal temperatures --------------------------------------------------------------- The predawn hours this morning will feature the slow progression of the cold front as it slowly slides south. However, some locations such as the northern WV and WV ridges, may see some patchy dense fog. Temperatures, with the influx of the cooler air from the north will be roughly near average or just below average for high temperatures. High pressure will remain going into Monday night with temperatures in the overnight period being over 10 degrees below normal. There will also be a better chance of dense fog Monday night due to the cooler temps and clear skies accompanied by lighter winds.
1147 PM CDT Sun Jul 20 2025 Updated at 1145 PM CDT Sun Jul 20 2025 - Low to medium (10-50%) rain/storm chances are forecast from the western Permian Basin to the higher elevations west of the Pecos River this afternoon and evening. This is likely due to a combination of highs a couple of degrees hotter than yesterday allowing us to hit the convective temperature and a weakness in the upper level ridge increasing instability slightly. An upper low currently over Southeast Texas will drift west overnight and into West Texas Monday.
(Today and tonight) The upper level high, which has been centered over the Gulf Coast the past couple of days, is shifting west and will be over the lower Mississippi Valley today and tonight. A slight increase in 850mb temperatures could allow for highs to be a degree or two warmer than yesterday at some locations. Highs should range from the lower 90s in our southern and southeastern counties, to the upper 90s/around 100 degrees in much of the Big Country. For tonight, expect overnight lows to be mostly in the lower 70s for our area south of Interstate 20, with mid 70s for much of the Big Country.
(Today and tonight) Another dangerously hot day is expected across Oklahoma and western north Texas Monday as upper ridge continues to be overhead. Although we are beginning to see the beginning of the shift eastward and shrinking of the upper ridge by late today and into tonight. Much like yesterday with the ridge in place and humid conditions afternoon heat indices will once again climb into advisory level across a majority of the area. The shift in the upper ridge by late today may also allow for an outside chance for a high-based shower/storm across far northwest Oklahoma.
We will start to see a pattern shift today as the strong high pressure starts to move away as a weak front pushes in to replace it.
Heat headlines will continue today and will likely be needed Tuesday as well as the fairly robust H5 ridge remains close to our region. On the backside of the mid level ridge some upper level dry air may filter into the the region aloft. With strong surface heating some of the dry air will likely try to mix downward, which inland may help drop dewpoints a tad and mitigate the highest heat index values in those areas. With the low level moisture and diurnal sea/lake breeze in the afternoon, cannot rule out lower end POPs both today and Tuesday. That said, with quite a bit of subsidence coverage will be on the low side, so lower than CLIMO POPs, if you will can be expected.
High level clouds associated with a mid/upper level low to our north, have been spreading southward across S TX and is expected to continue tonight.
I've elected to tone down the forecast temperatures slightly relative to the NBM given its poor handling of the lack of insolation, but expect a warmer Monday given the slightly sunnier conditions with highs in the low to mid 90s in the Hill Country and in the mid to upper 90s elsewhere.
651 AM EDT Mon Jul 21 2025 Cool high pressures to start the week with quiet weather through at least Tuesday.
An upper trough will remain over the region before pushing eastward Monday night and Tuesday. Brief high pressure returns around midweek with warmer and drier conditions.
Partly cloudy skies across the area under southerly flow aloft between upper low over srn CA and upper high over OK.
737 AM EDT Mon Jul 21 2025 The passage of a series of cold fronts has set the stage for a cooler and dry stretch of weather to start the week. High pressure will remain in control for the next few days, but there will be a warming trend for mid and late week.
645 AM CDT Mon Jul 21 2025 Upper ridging dominates the forecast to start the week allowing for hot temperatures and generously isolated to scattered shower and storm chances through Tuesday, best coverage east of the I-65 corridor. Thanks to mid level dry air rotating around the ridge into the forecast area, we should be able to mix out afternoon dewpoints into the lower to middle 70's for most locations.
655 AM EDT Mon Jul 21 2025 Cool high pressures to start the week with quiet weather through at least Tuesday.
530 AM MDT Mon Jul 21 2025 - Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) to a tiny slight risk (level 2 of 5) for severe thunderstorms this afternoon/evening - Heat indices in the lower 100s south-central today and probably Tuesday - Daily chances for thunderstorms Tuesday through the weekend with some strong/severe thunderstorms 07z surface analysis had weak low over eastern WY with frontal boundary into western IA. Water vapour loop had broad upper ridge across the southern CONUS with westerly flow aloft becoming southwesterly over the northern Plains.
2) Cooler temperatures and continued unsettled weather conditions will continue into the midweek. 3) Warm and dry weather will return late in the week or this weekend as upper ridging once again builds across the region. For the midweek, expect lingering unsettled weather conditions and below average temperatures with the upper trough axis over eastern Montana. High temperatures during this period will be in the low to mid 70s for much of the area. Ensembles suggest upper ridging returning late week and the weekend with a return to drier conditions and warmer temperatures.
/Issued 1153 PM CDT Sun Jul 20 2025/ /Overnight through Tuesday/ Quiet weather is expected overnight and into the first part of the week with mid level ridging broadly prevailing across the southern CONUS.
From synopsis: Weak Atlantic ridging remains in place across the Keys through approximately mid week. The Atlantic ridging over the Atlantic will strengthen and shift westward for mid to late week resulting in freshening east to southeast breezes.
640 AM CDT Mon Jul 21 2025 - Very hot temperatures arrive today and Tuesday with a heat advisory remaining in effect through early this evening as heat indices rise into the low 100s.
/Issued 226 AM MDT Mon Jul 21 2025/ - Meteorological Overview: An upper-level trough will continue to dig along the Pacific Coast.
240 PM EDT Mon Jul 21 2025 Lower rain chances and lower humidity are expected through the middle of the week as a strong area of Canadian high pressure builds to the north. A couple of showers and thunderstorms remain possible into early this evening generally near and south of I-64 where a slow-moving cold front lies. Canadian high pressure will dominate across the region through mid week.
111 PM EDT Mon Jul 21 2025 High pressure and a drier airmass will build into the region tonight into Tuesday. A few showers will linger across our far southwest through this afternoon in association with the remnant cold front. A broad h5 ridge over the southeastern third of the country will be shunted to the south Thurs night in response to weak s/w energy crossing the Great Lakes region.
125 PM EDT Mon Jul 21 2025 The passage of a series of cold fronts has set the stage for a cooler and dry stretch of weather to start the week. High pressure will remain in control for the next few days, but there will be a warming trend for mid and late week.
Ridging aloft continues to be the main driver for dangerous heat (and surrounding weather) across the Four State Region through the middle of the week.
1247 PM CDT Mon Jul 21 2025 - Very hot temperatures arrive today and Tuesday with a heat advisory remaining in effect through early this evening as heat indices rise into the low 100s.
--------------------------------------------------------------- The WPC 12Z surface analysis shows a cold front has drifted south of the area, into central West Virginia.
(This evening through Tuesday) Upper level low continues to spin slowly across West Central Texas early this afternoon, although actual weather from it it is small. (Tuesday night through next Monday) West Central Texas will be on the western periphery of upper ridging over the Southeast US/Midwest this week.
1138 AM MDT Mon Jul 21 2025 - Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) to a tiny slight risk (level 2 of 5) for severe thunderstorms this afternoon/evening - Heat indices in the lower 100s south-central today and probably Tuesday - Daily chances for thunderstorms Tuesday through the weekend with some strong/severe thunderstorms 07z surface analysis had weak low over eastern WY with frontal boundary into western IA. Water vapour loop had broad upper ridge across the southern CONUS with westerly flow aloft becoming southwesterly over the northern Plains.
Tuesday Thunderstorm Trends: A weak trough along the Georgia/Carolina coastline, backdoor cold front sagging south through northeast Georgia and lingering moisture will help afternoon and evening thunderstorms continue on Tuesday.
An anomalously deep, closed upper-level low centered over the OR/WA border will continue to drive active, cooler-than-normal weather through Tuesday. Partial clearing across the Blue Mountains, coupled with daytime heating, steepening lapse rates beneath the upper low, and orographic lift has facilitated isolated showers and thunderstorms early this afternoon over the Blue Mountains and the east slopes of the Washington Cascades. Elsewhere, NBM probabilities paint lower chances of showers (20-50%) and thunderstorms (10-25%) for the Blue Mountain foothills, portions of central Oregon, and the lower Columbia Basin. Ensemble and deterministic NWP guidance are in excellent agreement that the closed low will transition to an open wave as it departs to the northeast overnight through Tuesday.
Outside of the storms, an expanding low-level thermal ridge combined with slightly rising midlevel heights will bring a hotter day.
An upper trough will remain over the region today and move eastward into Tuesday. Brief high pressure returns around midweek for warmer and drier conditions before a weak disturbance drops across the region late in the week.
Afternoon heat indices will be in the lower to middle 100s east of Highway 25. The upper level ridge is expected to be the dominant pattern for much of the continental U.