Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
(This afternoon through Wednesday night) Visible satellite shows an upper low moving into West Texas with the first round of showers now well off to the east of the region. Into Wednesday morning, the same batch of showers scatters and weakens across the Permian Basin as the upper low ejects eastward. Lows tonight stay on the mild side for most (normal low at KMAF is 33) as temperatures settle in the low 40s. The Marfa Plateau and other normal cold spots end up near freezing, but do not cool enough to pose an ice risk. Some clearing south of the I-20 corridor helps warm those areas into the low 60s.
An upper level trough is currently digging south along the west coast, creating southwest flow for the Ozarks in the upper and mid levels.
Our sfc warm front has pulled a little further north since early this morning, and was located near a Camden and Texarkana Arkansas to Terrell, Texas line as of 10am. 13 (Tuesday through Wednesday) Warm front currently across northeast Texas and southwest Arkansas has allowed for much warmer temperatures across the region with temperatures south of the front averaging in the mid to upper 50s. Fog will remain a concern within the vicinity of the warm front through mid-morning.
(This evening through Wednesday night) An upper level short wave trough will move northeast across the southeast Texas Panhandle tonight. There could be some very light freezing rain/freezing drizzle in the western Oklahoma Panhandle and the northwest Texas Panhandle, but this is not expected to cause much of an impact at this time. On Wednesday a closed upper level low, which is approaching the bootheel of New Mexico now, will move across the Panhandles from southwest to northeast.
The lift associated with this trough generates a chance of showers and possibly even some embedded thunderstorms for regions south of I-20 and highest chances for heaviest precipitation across Presidio into Brewster, southeast Pecos, Terrell, Upton, Reagan, and Glasscock counties from near midnight Wednesday into Wednesday morning.
(This evening through Wednesday) Rain and embedded thunderstorms have dinished and exited the area to the north this afternoon, leaving drier and a little warmer conditions across West Central Texas.
113 PM MST Tue Jan 23 2024 Satellite imagery shows a very split trof moving thru the intermountain west (ID to AZ), with SW flow bringing some mid and high clouds to our region. Progression of upstream weak trof should bring a few light snow showers to the Beartooth-Absarokas late this afternoon to early Wednesday. That said, snow cover remains over much of our north and east and early afternoon temps remain only in the low-mid 20s from Forsyth to Miles City. dry), then by late tomorrow night the next approaching Pacific trof will bring the next chance of light snow showers to our western mountains.
/SEC (Today through Wednesday) High pressure center has moved offshore the the coast of the Carolinas. Moisture from the Gulf of Mexico has begun to move up and over the cooler wedge this morning.
1128 AM CST Tue Jan 23 2024 - Areas of patchy freezing fog possible this morning, especially in southern MN.
- Possibility of more freezing rain late tonight into Wednesday, but uncertain with temperatures hovering at or just above freezing.
A weak disturbance will continue to move through the Northern Rockies this afternoon and evening bringing light snow to the higher terrain. The valleys have finally warmed to above freezing today so the threat of freezing rain has been removed.
The Florida Keys remain under the directly influence of an anticylonic flow regime, with high pressure centered over the Carolinas. The extensive cloud cover kept most of the Lower and Middle Keys in the mid 70s this afternoon, with several of the Upper Keys communities reaching the upper 70s under a few more breaks in cloud cover. The best chances for measurable rainfall along the island chain appear to be in the vicinity of the Lower Keys owed to the closer proximity to the moisture plume. High pressure will continue to slide eastward towards the west- central Atlantic through the end of the work week.
Would not be surprised if we need to further extend the headline for some areas thru the rest of the day as warmer air conts to advect over the colder ground and lingering snow cover. (Today through Wednesday Night) A rather active short term period is in store as an upper level trough has positioned itself over the area. Severe weather chances are expected to remain on the low end with the main concern being isolated flash flooding due to the heavy rainfall. Overnight lows are expected to be in the lower 40s to mid 50s through the period.
142 PM MST Tue Jan 23 2024 Areas of freezing fog, some of it dense, persist this afternoon across portions of NE Montana. Ensemble 500mb height fields show upper ridging persisting into the upcoming weekend with warmer and drier weather conditions. For KOLF and KGGW, low stratus and areas of dense freezing fog will continue to bring IFR to LIFR conditions at times.
Mainly snow is falling for Central NY and northern portions of NE PA, and mixed precipitation with freezing rain for southern portions of NE PA. Heading into Tuesday evening, warm air advection into our area will begin to transition snow to mixed precipitation, including a mix with sleet and freezing rain. By early morning Wednesday, precipitation will have transitioned to mostly rain, with exception to the Catskills and northern Oneida County, where they're likely to continue experiencing mixed precipitation with freezing rain until mid-morning Wednesday. Wednesday will consist of light to moderate rain through the day, with temperatures increasing into the low- to mid-40s.
Temperatures have risen into the low to mid 50s for places west of the Plateau and are in the mid to upper 40s along the Plateau.
246 PM CST Tue Jan 23 2024 - Temperatures continue to warm this week with high temperatures above freezing and some record warm low temperatures possible. - Low clouds, fog, and drizzle/freezing drizzle possible through Wednesday.
1012 AM EST Tue Jan 23 2024 Any freezing rain this morning will transition over to rain by afternoon.
Warm advection showers will likely develop ahead of an eastward moving upper level trough currently over the Four Corners. Minor flooding may occur in those areas that receive the highest rainfall totals.
- Light ice accumulations from freezing rain will remain possible now through mid-morning over northern Missouri. For northern Missouri within the ongoing winter weather advisory, confidence in ice accumulation on the roadways is trending somewhat lower, with both the air temperatures near freezing and the rain passing through a +2C to +4C layer above the surface.
Similar to last night, think the temps will mainly remain just above freezing with no significant cold air advection occurring and the stratus and fog inhibiting any radiational cooling. The forecast has some chance (20% to 30%) for freezing rain mainly on the west and northerly periphery of the precip shield. In fact the main concern may just be liquid water hitting untreated surfaces that happen to be sub-freezing.
Temps will likely linger in the low-mid 30s from Forsyth to Miles City, and will reach the upper 30s to mid 40s elsewhere.
Rain will end from southwest to northeast tomorrow afternoon as the axis of the upper trough approaches the FA. In general, temps should remain above freezing tonight thanks to well above freezing dewpoints, but there could be isolated areas of temps right at or just below freezing.
in the low to mid 50s. A long wave trough will be setting up over the central part of the country with short waves passing to our west. This one will push a warm front into Middle TN. Behind the warm front we will see deep Gulf moisture with our PWATs pushing to around 1. As we head into Wednesday evening a cold front will be sitting off to our west and we will see areas of moderate rain ahead of this slow moving front.
In conjunction with the modest warming that took place today, there is high confidence in rain occuring (vs freezing rain) overnight for a majority of the area. I say majority because I have some concern that freezing drizzle (or even freezing fog) could occur in and around Hillsdale, MI. The low- level moisture profile is rather robust up to 700mb; perhaps too deep for drizzle. However, precipitation tends to linger as these low pressure systems depart.
1106 AM CST Tue Jan 23 2024 (Today and tonight) Water vapor imagery revealed a potent upper jet speeding east from Baja California in the base of a broad trough. As winds in the 850-700mb layer back to southeasterly ahead of this low and tap a reservoir of richer gulf moisture, PWATs will soar to around 1" off the Caprock with about half this amount along the TX-NM border. The highest QPF of around 1/2" looks to closely follow the track of the slow-moving 700mb low where lift residence time will be maximized. As precip tapers overnight in the wake of the low, the stage could be primed for a third round of dense fog given light winds and very moist low levels.
(Through tonight) Western CONUS troughing continues to feed anomalous moisture over the Southern Plains this afternoon. Bowlan (Tomorrow through Tuesday) Cloudy, dreary weather continues tomorrow and will likely last through much of the week until the large scale trough swings through the region this weekend.
1124 AM CST Tue Jan 23 2024 - Warmer this whole week, with temperatures mainly above average - Rounds of rain expected today and Wed-Thurs, all told we could see 1-3 inches of rain by Thurs night - Some thunder could mix in there Wed afternoon through overnight Visibility readings have improved slightly to 1 to 2 miles in the ongoing Dense Fog Advisory area for locations along and west of the Mississippi River, so planning to let the advisory expire as scheduled at 18z. Today we are in southwest flow aloft with ridging to the east and a trof to the southwest.
1039 AM MST Tue Jan 23 2024 - Dense freezing fog is expected to persist in the northern Nebraska Panhandle through mid-to-late morning.
248 PM EST Tue Jan 23 2024 Broad high pressure will be ridging across the area from the Atlantic through the week, with a trough lifting north over the northern Gulf through tonight, providing some low rain chances across the north and keeping E/SE winds in place.
The 12z morning sounding at KEY sampled falling geopotential heights below 500 mb, a response to high pressure currently over the Carolinas and an area of low pressure centered over the Gulf of Mexico both slowly drifting eastward. Given the fresh to strong southeasterly steering flow and aforementioned moist boundary layer, light passing showers cannot be ruled out for today, with the greatest chances slightly favored in the vicinity of the Lower Keys. From synopsis, a large high pressure system centered over the Carolinas will steadily slide east southeast over the next several days.
1251 PM MST Tue Jan 23 2024 - Dense freezing fog will persist through today, tonight and Wednesday morning. Occasional freezing drizzle will also be possible.
111 PM MST Tue Jan 23 2024 Satellite imagery shows a very split trof moving thru the intermountain west (ID to AZ), with SW flow bringing some mid and high clouds to our region. Progression of upstream weak trof should bring a few light snow showers to the Beartooth-Absarokas late this afternoon to early Wednesday. That said, snow cover remains over much of our north and east and early afternoon temps remain only in the low-mid 20s from Forsyth to Miles City. dry), then by late tomorrow night the next approaching Pacific trof will bring the next chance of light snow showers to our western mountains.
Issued by National Weather Service La Crosse WI 1205 PM CST Tue Jan 23 2024 - Light lake effect snow and some freezing drizzle possible today (20-50%), mainly along the North Shore.
Weak upper trough will keep a 20 to 40 percent chance of light rain showers over our CWA today and this evening. After brief upper ridging later tonight and early Wednesday a stronger rough, currently in the eastern Pacific near 135W, will bring valley rain and mountain snow to all areas Wednesday and Wednesday night (see prev discussion for details).
243 PM CST Tue Jan 23 2024 - Areas of patchy freezing fog likely overnight, especially in southern MN.
(Tonight through Wednesday night) An upper level trough covers the southwestern part of the country this afternoon with southwesterly flow over South Texas. The low level flow is weak with a poorly defined pressure field. The upper trough will be more progressive Wednesday night moving across Texas.
An upper high pressure ridge over the Bahamas and a large scale trough over the Rockies will continue to pump moisture from the SW across the area.
515 PM CST Tue Jan 23 2024 (Through tonight) Western CONUS troughing continues to feed anomalous moisture over the Southern Plains this afternoon. Bowlan (Tomorrow through Tuesday) Cloudy, dreary weather continues tomorrow and will likely last through much of the week until the large scale trough swings through the region this weekend.
436 PM MST Tue Jan 23 2024 - Freezing fog is possible in the northern Nebraska Panhandle and North Platte River Valley late tonight through mid-to- late morning Wednesday.
Temperatures for tomorrow/tomorrow night will run a bit cooler (via the rains/ clouds) with highs in the 60s and lows in the 50s.
443 PM MST Tue Jan 23 2024 - Dense freezing fog expected through Wednesday morning across the entire Tri-State area. Freezing drizzle is no longer expected tonight; however, the freezing fog could create slick conditions Wednesday morning.
- The combination of fog and subfreezing temperatures may result in slick spots, especially on elevated and untreated surfaces.
The warming trend will continue tomorrow with afternoon highs warming into the lower 80s for everyone away from the immediate coast.
Freezing fog tonight into Wednesday morning may impact visibility and travel.
236 PM MST Tue Jan 23 2024 - Dense freezing fog will return tonight through mid-day Wednesday.
TFJ Areas of freezing fog, some of it dense, persist this afternoon across portions of NE Montana. Ensemble 500mb height fields show upper ridging persisting into the upcoming weekend with warmer and drier weather conditions.
Northwest Oklahoma will drop to near freezing temperatures toward morning. With precipitation moving over the region, there is about a 5% chance of some light freezing rain in this region. However, dewpoints in the low to mid 30s will make this difficult to achieve and light northerly winds don't promise much in the way of advecting in drier dewpoints. High temperatures will likely be in the 40s (we're leaning toward the lower end of guidance given the fog, cloud cover, and recent high bias of NBM).
845 PM CST Tue Jan 23 2024 A warm front is lifting north through north Mississippi with moderate to heavy rain overspreading the Midsouth.
523 PM CST Tue Jan 23 2024 (This evening through Wednesday) Rain and embedded thunderstorms have finished and exited the area to the north this afternoon, leaving drier and a little warmer conditions across West Central Texas.
534 PM CST Tue Jan 23 2024 (This evening through Wednesday night) An upper level short wave trough will move northeast across the southeast Texas Panhandle tonight. There could be some very light freezing rain/freezing drizzle in the western Oklahoma Panhandle and the northwest Texas Panhandle, but this is not expected to cause much of an impact at this time. On Wednesday a closed upper level low, which is approaching the bootheel of New Mexico now, will move across the Panhandles from southwest to northeast.
527 PM CST Tue Jan 23 2024 - Temperatures continue to warm this week with high temperatures above freezing and some record warm low temperatures possible. - Low clouds, fog, and drizzle/freezing drizzle possible through Wednesday.
618 PM CST Tue Jan 23 2024 - Areas of patchy freezing fog and light mist or drizzle likely overnight, especially in southern MN.
These showers were along the leading edge of a big batch of rainfall focused over the Lower Ms Valley. Readings will hold mostly in the lower 50s. Plateau locations that are currently in the 40s will rise into the low 50s by daybreak. Temperatures have risen into the low to mid 50s for places west of the Plateau and are in the mid to upper 40s along the Plateau.
456 PM CST Tue Jan 23 2024 (This afternoon through Wednesday night) Visible satellite shows an upper low moving into West Texas with the first round of showers now well off to the east of the region. Into Wednesday morning, the same batch of showers scatters and weakens across the Permian Basin as the upper low ejects eastward. Lows tonight stay on the mild side for most (normal low at KMAF is 33) as temperatures settle in the low 40s. The Marfa Plateau and other normal cold spots end up near freezing, but do not cool enough to pose an ice risk. Some clearing south of the I-20 corridor helps warm those areas into the low 60s.
225 PM MST Tue Jan 23 2024 - Freezing fog is possible in the northern Nebraska Panhandle and North Platte River Valley late tonight through mid-to- late morning Wednesday.
1041 PM CST Tue Jan 23 2024 (This evening through Wednesday night) An upper level short wave trough will move northeast across the southeast Texas Panhandle tonight. There could be some very light freezing rain/freezing drizzle in the western Oklahoma Panhandle and the northwest Texas Panhandle, but this is not expected to cause much of an impact at this time. On Wednesday a closed upper level low, which is approaching the bootheel of New Mexico now, will move across the Panhandles from southwest to northeast.
855 PM PST Tue Jan 23 2024 A weak trough moving across the Great Basin Wednesday night may produce a few light showers in Southern California Thursday.
Warmer air conts to advect northward into the FA, with mid aftn temps in the 40s and 50s. For Wed night and Thu, the main mid lvl trof wl lift acrs the region, with rain chcs diminishing fm the west on Thu.
1055 PM CST Tue Jan 23 2024 (Tonight through Wednesday night) An upper level trough covers the southwestern part of the country this afternoon with southwesterly flow over South Texas. The low level flow is weak with a poorly defined pressure field. The upper trough will be more progressive Wednesday night moving across Texas.
1255 AM MST Wed Jan 24 2024 - Dense freezing fog expected through Wednesday morning across the entire Tri-State area. Freezing drizzle is no longer expected tonight; however, the freezing fog could create slick conditions Wednesday morning. Dry conditions are anticipated on Thursday as an upper ridge moves over the High Plains. Tomorrow looks a bit warmer with highs climbing into the mid 30s to mid 40s once the fog dissipates. Thursday is even warmer! We are looking forward to high temperatures in the mid 40s to lower 50s Thursday afternoon with overnight lows falling back to the 20s.
A very loose pressure gradient in the vicinity of the low combined with ample moisture from previous rainfall has allowed for a nearly saturated environment across southeast Oklahoma, northeast Texas, northwest Louisiana and southwest Arkansas. An upper-low across New Mexico will gradually shift east and dissolve into a broad trough that will sweep across the region on Thursday. Weak perturbations within southwest flow ahead of the low will allow for continued bursts of convection that will generate a heavy rain threat across much of the region through at least midday Thursday before the trough kicks the precipitation east.
1100 PM CST Tue Jan 23 2024 - Areas of patchy freezing fog and light mist or drizzle likely overnight, especially in southern MN. The low-level stratus will stick around as a couple upper-level disturbances push their way through overnight and Thursday. With temperatures being near freezing, this could lead to some slick spots on roadways like this morning. Again, temperatures will be right around freezing, so a rain/snow mix is expected with rain favored during the daytime hours. Some sounding profiles are hinting at the potential for freezing rain to mix in, especially over southern Minnesota. Confidence is low, so we have kept mention of freezing precip out of the grids for now.
(Today and tonight) A batch of rain will continue to move northward across the area through the morning hours fueled by a weak short wave trough moving within the larger scale cyclonic flow. Moist isentropic ascent will begin to wane in the afternoon with large scale ascent moving eastward with the larger scale trough axis. A weak deformation zone progged between 700-500mb on the back side of the trough will move overhead this evening.
A push of cooler air arrives on Thursday night with lows dropping into the upper 40s/low 50s for most locations.
A long wave trough is set up over the Central part of the country and we will see short waves pass to our west. The trough axis will continue to push east during the day today and that will continue to pull in higher PWATs with them reaching an 1. Instability will also increase with the higher moisture building in and we could see up to 200 j/kg of MUCAPE. On Thursday a short wave trough will lift out of TX and pass to our northwest. This will push a cold front trough our area with showers diminishing behind the front.
Daytime highs will top out well above average in the low to mid 80's with overnight lows in the 60's.
Thereafter, a strong high pressure ridge will build in over the weekend with a warming trend commencing. But by in large, increasing subsidence behind the departing low pressure system is winning out.
Similar to last night, think the temps will mainly remain just above freezing with no significant cold air advection occurring and the stratus and fog inhibiting any radiational cooling. The forecast has some chance (20% to 30%) for freezing rain mainly on the west and northerly periphery of the precip shield. In fact the main concern may just be liquid water hitting untreated surfaces that happen to be sub-freezing. Highs each of these days are a degree or two warmer than previous readings to account for the models showing warmer air at 925MB. But until we can mix down some of that warmer air, think the trend will remain subtle.
A large anticyclone is nearing Bermuda, with the gradient along its southern flank driving fresh to strong east to southeast breezes through the Keys this evening. A large high pressure system centered to the east of the Carolinas will slide steadily east southeast over the next several days.
Precipitation will remain all rain as surface temperatures remain above 32 degrees and are not expected to fall to below freezing. As the case as our current conditions, temperatures are expected to remain above freezing with no impacts with respect to winter weather.
CAMs have initially been focusing the lowest visbys along/northwest of a Macomb to Pontiac line and along/southeast of a Taylorville to Champaign line immediately after sunset, with fog gradually developing/thickening in between as the evening progresses.
331 AM EST Wed Jan 24 2024 A warm front will slowly move north through the region today with a few additional rain and freezing rain showers.
- High pressure builds into the weekend, keeping the mild, dry weather around to close out the month. Fog is also expected again tonight (80% chance) due to temps near freezing causing slight melting of the snowpack, and radiational cooling at night, creating the strong inversion necessary for valley fog. By the weekend, a stronger ridge will build. The ridge looks to stick around long enough and it is looking more likely (70% chance) that we will take the quiet weather into February. Fog is also possible Wednesday morning, but the low clouds should limit fog development.