Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
With surface ridging currently centered over the Ozarks, clear and calm conditions are in place across eastern Kansas. This has allowed for temperatures to drop into the 20s, especially in the typically cooler lower-lying locations. As the high continues off to the east, southerly winds return across the entire area today.
Looking at the pattern aloft, 07z H5 RAP objective analysis shows much of Nebraska and Iowa in northwesterly to northerly flow as the 547dam closed low has now moved toward the southeast US. With the advancing baroclinic zone and increasing warm air advection, expect warmer temperatures for today as highs reach the low to middle 60s across eastern Nebraska, and mid 50s for southwest Iowa. Highs will be a degree or two cooler compared to today, but still expecting widespread upper 50s to low 60s.
Through Monday:Northwest flow aloft will continue tonight as our CWA remains on the back side of a closed low dropping over the southeast states. Our flow aloft will become near zonal Monday as the closed low moves farther east of our region and ridging aloft moves over our CWA from the west.
(This afternoon through Monday) Upper heights will increase through the day and northerly winds aloft will diminish as a relatively strong ridge builds in from the west. Breezy southwesterly surface winds peaking near 15 mph return as well between high pressure over the Southeast and a weak low over the Rockies.
952 AM PST Sun Nov 2 2025 * Dry, mild weather and warmer than normal temperatures will continue through the first half of the week. * A trough will move through the Great Basin around mid-week, briefly interrupting our streak of dry and mild weather.
- Dry and warm weather prevails through Monday - Active weather returns for the middle of this week with showers, gusty southerly winds, isolated thunderstorms, high elevation snow showers and cooler temperatures.
Mid-upper ridging currently across NW Mexico and the Desert Southwest moves into Tx early this week. Though the northern periphery of this ridge eventually flattens mid-late week, the center itself should still remain overhead locally and suppress rain chances.
- High pressure will prevail through the week resulting in quiet weather and slightly above-normal temperatures. (This afternoon through Monday) As mid/upper ridging settles over North and Central Texas in the wake of yesterday's system, sunny skies and dry conditions will prevail through the short-term forecast period and much of the week.
High pressure over Arizona today will keep one more day of unseasonably warm and dry conditions for the day today. Slightly breezier and cooler conditions will ensue on Monday as a result.
(Rest of today through Monday) Late Sunday morning, low pressure circulation was evident on satellite loops over southwest Middle Tennessee. The low pressure will drift southeast of our area by this evening, allowing rain to taper off, or at least decrease to patchy drizzle. This is around 5 degrees cooler than normal.
Monday on, upper level high pressure centered over Texas shifts east over the northern Gulf coast, then a bit south over the Gulf proper.
The deep and strong upper-level trough's influence on the forecast is finally loosening as it approaches the east coast. Otherwise, the only other pertinent synoptic feature is a weak high pressure system centered around the Arizona/Mexico border. Also into the overnight, the aforementioned high pressure system is expected to continue moving eastward and approach the forecast area. After the high exits/erodes, ensembles have a largely zonal flow through the remainder of the forecast period and beyond. With the cold front Monday's highs will be a little cooler with nearly the whole CWA in the 60s. Lows are currently forecast to remain above freezing. With the high/zonal flow pattern, winds will remain light (<20 mph).
Cold front continues to push across the state. Warm front over western North Dakota will continue to proceed easterly, with the cold front dropping through later this morning into mid-day. Very mild air will move into the area in the warm sector, with temperatures already climbing into the lower to mid 50s over parts of southwest North Dakota. Warmest temperatures should occur right before cold frontal passage with highs expected to be about 10 to 15 degrees above average. Behind the cold front, cold air advection will occur but it is not very strong. Strong northwest winds will be found with passage of a cold front today.
Jet streaks moving across the northern plains will push a series of weak cold fronts through Kansas.
(Today through Monday afternoon) A dry northerly to northwesterly flow aloft remains prevalent over west Texas and southeast New Mexico early this morning between a deep upper-level trough that is digging across the Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys and an upper-level ridge building over the Desert Southwest. The upper-level ridge will build eastward across southeast New Mexico and west Texas today and tonight. High temperatures will trend warmer in the 70s to near 80 degrees over most of the area today, except for readings in the upper 60s over our mountain areas and up to 80 to 85 degrees along the Rio Grande. The upper-level ridge will remain oriented over much of the state of Texas on Monday. High temperatures will trend several degrees warmer with readings ranging in the mid 70s to mid 80s over the majority of our area.
Multiple locations have reached the low 80s, including at the Thedford, Ogallala, and Grant Airport observation sites. Winds continue to subside as the h85 trough axis clears to the south. High pressure will continue to build in from the northwest.
1255 PM EST Sun Nov 2 2025 High pressure will maintain dry weather tonight as it drifts to the southeast. The next storm system will arrive Monday, with gusty southwest winds ahead of a cold front that will bring a round of showers during the afternoon and evening hours. Quiet weather remains through tonight as high pressure over the region drifts to the southeast. Potential for a windy day Monday, as low level jet strengthens ahead of the cold front. CAA will briefly bring in a cooler airmass to the Lower Lakes Monday night with 850 T's briefly down to 0C to -4C.
A trough of low pressure will develop along the West Coast this week, leading to a subtle cooling trend, a deeper marine layer, and breezy winds in the mountains and deserts. A trough to the north will begin to deepen the marine layer later today into Monday as models show low clouds and less fog moving further inland into the valleys, potentially into the Inland Empire by Monday morning. A weak upper level low will move eastward across So Cal later today, but the most this will do is bring some scattered high clouds later this afternoon. Weak troughing along the West Coast will bring a gradual cooling trend this week.
1245 PM EST Sun Nov 2 2025 Rain possible overnight for locations east of the Blue Ridge. High pressure builds in Monday and dry weather should continue throughout most of the upcoming week. Rain should begin to taper off by daybreak as the disturbance moves out into the Atlantic and high pressure begins to build in from the west. Gusty winds possible Monday afternoon as the pressure gradient increases between the high to the west and the departing system into the Atlantic. A few of the higher ridges could gust into the 40mph range at times through Monday afternoon.
A large-scale ridge containing well above normal 500 mb hghts will begin to decrease in amplitude tonight as a weak s/wv moves into the ridge from the west.
Breezy south winds on the northwest side of the ridge axis have bumped temps up into the mid/upper 50s with sunny skies. Temperatures dip into mid/upper 30s tonight but recover nicely into the mid 60s tomorrow afternoon as an upper level ridge expands northward.
A subtle ridge of high pressure slides over the region tonight into Monday morning causing a reduction in shower activity over the Northern Rockies. Snow levels are anticipated to be relatively high (around 5000ft) for this time of year, so any accumulating snow will be mainly limited to the higher terrain.
- High temperatures across the lower deserts are expected to slowly cool from around 90 degrees today into the mid 80s by the end of this week with overnight lows remaining in the upper 50s to mid 60s. Latest mid-lvl wv imagery and 500 mb streamline analysis reveals a high amplitude ridge centered over the Desert Southwest. Temperatures are expected to top out in the mid 80s to around 90 degrees across the lower deserts which is 5 to 7 degrees above average for early November. Upper-lvl moisture ahead of this trough will result in high clouds overspreading the region beginning around midnight tonight and persisting through Monday.
Monday will be warmer, but maybe not noticeably so due to gusty winds of 20 to 30 mph developing as temperatures reach into the mid 50s to near 60.
Peripheral flow around troughing continues with meridional flow transitioning to quasi-zonal flow over the next 48-72 hours as the trough shifts eastward. As surface ridging overhead shifts slowly east overnight, reinforced radiational cooling will boost frost development near the Ouachita River Valley, prompting another Frost Advisory into the early morning hours on Monday. With zonal flow continuing across the area through the rest of the forecast period, most longwave troughs will remain north of the Four State Region, diverting active weather to our north and keeping the area dry.
Progged instability is quite limited through the evening, but ample 0-6 km bulk shear plus hi- res model depiction of local maxima in 0-3 km SRH and 0-1 km SRH (thanks to the core of the low passing directly over the area) suggest the possibility for gusty winds and even rotation in strong showers or storms. Rain will end by tomorrow (Monday) morning as the low shifts east of the area. Strato-cumulus on the back side of the low may make for a cloudy sky across parts of the CWA in the morning, but by the afternoon, abundant sunshine will make for highs generally in the 60s.
Skies were mostly clear early this Sunday morning and dry air advection was well underway as high pressure settles into the region. Winds over Wrn AR may shift to the S late this evening as the high moves slightly Ewrd. Synoptically, an upper level closed low will track Ewrd across the TN Valley today. At the same time an upper level ridge will slide Ewrd out of the Srn Rockies into the Srn Plains. By mid-week, the ridge will become stationary to our S invof of the Gulf coast states.
105 PM MST Sun Nov 2 2025 - Windy conditions today behind a cold front. As the cold front continues to push to the south and east it should be taking the chance for precip and cloud cover along with it. Harlowton has the highest chance of seeing some significant gusts as these winds may accelerate as they flow through the gaps in the terrain.
- Dry weather with a slow warming trend this week (Tonight through Monday night) Dry conditions are forecast through the short-term as weak ridging aloft slides east across the area.
Updated at 1138 AM CST Sun Nov 2 2025 - Widespread fog and areas of frost are expected to develop late tonight into Monday morning, with temperatures falling into the low to mid 30s. - A warming trend will follow, with high temperatures returning to the low to mid 70s by late week.
125 PM EST Sun Nov 2 2025 Dry high pressure system remains in place into Monday morning.
Northwest flow aloft will turn more zonal on Sunday as an upper level ridge shifts eastward into southwestern United States. The axis of a mid-level thermal ridge will be situated over the plains, with 700-mb temperatures between +10C to +12C by the afternoon. Dry downslope winds off the Cheyenne ridge will likely promote RH values in the low-to-mid teens, with wind gusts up to 20 mph. Temperatures will be about 10-15 degrees cooler.
Precipitation chances with this wave will be very minimal with the dendritic layer around 14-18 kft and little to no instability available, not to mention some fairly dry air in the lower levels. While cooler air is moving into the area, the Monday morning lows will be milder with winds and a few clouds keeping temperatures up. A strong jet moves by to the north Monday and keeps temperatures a bit cooler with highs mainly from 55 to 60. Upper level ridging builds later Monday into Monday night bringing increased warm advection and southerly flow. On the tail of this upper level ridge will come another broad wave across the Northern Plains but once again moisture is a struggle and precipitation is very unlikely.
As mentioned in the last discussion a tight pressure gradient associated the low in Canada has provided for gusty winds today. This low and its associated cold front will continue to move east today into tomorrow. However, the lower levels of the atmosphere are still quite dry, so most of this rain will likely be virga and not reach the surface. Behind the front high pressure will move in bringing with it clearing skies. The higher pressure combined with ridging aloft will provide for a decent fall day with plenty of sun and temperatures in the 50s tomorrow.
101 PM EST Sun Nov 2 2025 Dry high pressure system remains in place into Monday morning.
132 PM EST Sun Nov 2 2025 Dry high pressure system remains in place into Monday morning.
Upstream jet expected to buckle tonight into Monday, pushing strong height falls into the region, along with an attendant cold front.
Warm front over western North Dakota will continue to proceed easterly, with the cold front dropping through later this morning into mid-day. Very mild air will move into the area in the warm sector, with temperatures already climbing into the lower to mid 50s over parts of southwest North Dakota. Warmest temperatures should occur right before cold frontal passage with highs expected to be about 10 to 15 degrees above average. Behind the cold front, cold air advection will occur but it is not very strong.
(This afternoon through Monday night) High pressure continues to build east over the Four Corners toward the Southern High Plains. As a result warmer temperatures are expected today, with the warmest ares in the northwest, that may even top out in the low 80s, while most other areas are mid to upper 70s. The far east that is a bit more displaced from the warmer air may only get to the low 70s. Now we do expect a weak cold front to clip the Panhandles tomorrow and that will provide a bit of a temperature gradient with highs in the north only reaching mid 60s, versus the south being in the mid to upper 70s.
Upper level ridging overhead today allowing for warmer temperatures this afternoon. High pressure migrates south and east allowing for continued above normal temperatures Monday. An upper trough dives over the eastern 2/3rds of the CONUS and may bring cooler air heading into Sunday but otherwise quiet and dry conditions expected over the weekend. Elevated fire danger through the week ahead specifically for the lowlands.
High pressure brings a dry, seasonably cool start to the work week. Upper low over TN valley will sag south, eventually moving into the southeastern U. On Monday, aforementioned upper low will move across the southeast U.
These models had widespread temperatures below freezing. As such, freezing fog has developed. While the ground is above freezing, keeping most roads clear of any slick spots. Bridges and overpasses are not as fortunate, as they are more susceptible to changes in temperature. Otherwise, we should expect a warmer day than yesterday with highs in the 50s.
KLG (This afternoon through Monday Night) In the wake of last night's cold front, a reinforcing cooler and drier air mass has already begun building into the local area. The combination of the cooler air mass, low dewpoints and clear skies will lead to efficient radiative cooling.
131 PM PST Sun Nov 2 2025 A trough of low pressure will deepen offshore through the middle of the week, bringing cooler weather, breezier conditions, and greater coverage of low clouds west of the mountains. High pressure will reemerge at the end of the week, bringing in warmer conditions and cloud coverage closer to the coast. WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO High clouds from the south intersect low clouds along the coast this afternoon as a weak area of low pressure moves over the region.
916 PM EST Sun Nov 2 2025 High pressure will maintain dry weather tonight as it drifts to the southeast. The next storm system will arrive Monday, with gusty southwest winds ahead of a cold front that will bring a round of showers during the afternoon and evening hours. Quiet weather remains through tonight as high pressure over the region drifts to the southeast. Potential for a windy day Monday, as low level jet strengthens ahead of the cold front. CAA will briefly bring in a cooler airmass to the Lower Lakes Monday night with 850 T's briefly down to 0C to -4C.
Northwest winds continue to gradually loose their gustiness and should continue that trend overnight and into Monday as high pressure moves in.
519 PM CST Sun Nov 2 2025 - High pressure will prevail through the week resulting in quiet weather and slightly above-normal temperatures. (This afternoon through Monday) As mid/upper ridging settles over North and Central Texas in the wake of yesterday's system, sunny skies and dry conditions will prevail through the short-term forecast period and much of the week.
Ridging will be in place over the area, bringing increased subsidence. With the ridge in place, and no strong flow, dry conditions are anticipated for overnight. The only "major" weather feature will be a weak cold front pushing southward late this evening from behind troughing far to the northeast. Looking at temperatures, despite the cold front, the bigger push of cold won't arrive until early tomorrow morning, so much of the area will stay above seasonal values. The plains will hover around seasonal values thanks to the cold front passage, with highs in the mid 50s to mid 60s.
514 PM CST Sun Nov 2 2025 Updated at 513 PM CST Sun Nov 2 2025 - A High Risk of Rip Currents is in effect for today, with a moderate risk of rip currents expected for tomorrow due to increased winds, wave heights and wave periods behind the cold front as well as increasing effects from astronomical tides. - Ridging aloft and dry conditions (less than 10% chance of rain) return today and for the remainder of the forecast period along with a warming trend in temperatures, becoming above average by midweek. With a mid-level ridge building over the region, more dry air will filter in due to the subsidence aloft.
- Warmer than normal temperatures and dry conditions are expected through mid week.
500 PM CST Sun Nov 2 2025 - Dry weather with a slow warming trend this week (Tonight through Monday night) Dry conditions are forecast through the short-term as weak ridging aloft slides east across the area.
The main story early this afternoon has been strong southwest winds proceeding a cold front. A better chance for precipitation at the surface arrives this evening following the cold frontal passage. There will be a 40% chance for scattered showers in the Arrowhead north of the Iron Range, as the lower levels saturate.
However, that's not the case for everyone as there's an axis of stubborn clouds on the backside of this upper low that continues to spit out light rain and drizzle. Please use caution on area roadways tonight and during the Monday morning commute! (Rest of today through Monday) Late Sunday morning, low pressure circulation was evident on satellite loops over southwest Middle Tennessee. The low pressure will drift southeast of our area by this evening, allowing rain to taper off, or at least decrease to patchy drizzle. This is around 5 degrees cooler than normal.
501 PM EST Sun Nov 2 2025 High pressure will maintain dry weather tonight as it drifts to the southeast. The next storm system will arrive Monday, with gusty southwest winds ahead of a cold front that will bring a round of showers during the afternoon and evening hours. Quiet weather remains through tonight as high pressure over the region drifts to the southeast. Potential for a windy day Monday, as low level jet strengthens ahead of the cold front. CAA will briefly bring in a cooler airmass to the Lower Lakes Monday night with 850 T's briefly down to 0C to -4C.
- Cooler air accompanying the mid-week system will lower snow levels to 6,000 to 7,000 feet, meaning rain in the valleys and rain-snow mix likely in the mid-elevations. Breezy, post-frontal winds are observed this afternoon, with widespread gusts ranging 35 to 45 mph and locally stronger in the higher elevations and across the Arco Desert. In the wake of the cold front, daytime temperatures are several degrees cooler than yesterday but are approximately 5 degrees above normal across much of the region. Overnight lows will follow a similar trend in that they will be cooler than last night but still very mild and well above normal for this time of year.
- A chance of showers and thunderstorms returns to the forecast by week's end with a cold front's passage. A dry, cold start to the week will transition to seasonally milder temperatures over the course of the work week as high pressure and rising upper heights commandeers our synoptic pattern/sensible weather.
The frequency of 60+ MPH wind gusts is decreasing, which will likely allow the High Wind Warnings for the southeast Wyoming wind prones to expire on time this afternoon. Cooler, yet still above average temperatures are expected on Monday.
309 PM CST Sun Nov 2 2025 - Warmer than normal temperatures and dry conditions are expected through mid week.
546 PM CST Sun Nov 2 2025 Updated at 526 PM CST Sun Nov 2 2025 - Widespread fog and areas of frost are expected to develop late tonight into Monday morning, with temperatures falling into the low to mid 30s. - A warming trend will follow, with high temperatures returning to the low to mid 70s by late week.
254 AM CST Mon Nov 3 2025 - Dry weather continues today with light winds and highs in the low to mid 60s.
* Mid to late week, a trough will move through the region, bringing increased winds, slightly cooler temperatures, and a slight chance of precipitation to portions of the eastern Sierra.
Tomorrow (Tuesday) will bring dry conditions and ample sunshine once again, supporting high temperatures several degrees warmer than those today -- in the mid-60s to mid-70s.
The upper level flow aloft will transition to southwest tonight into Monday morning, bringing warmer temperatures on Monday afternoon.
Seasonably warm temperatures persist through the weekend before a pattern change brings cooler temps and rain showers to the area.
Currently early this morning, a closed low is centered just to our east with high pressure expanding from our southwest. Throughout the day, the closed low will move off to our high pressure becoming gradually centered over the region. For tonight, better radiational cooling conditions will allow temperatures to drop further than this morning with several places likely close to freezing.
Today, an 850 mb high pressure system will move east over the North- Central High Plains. Clouds will start moving in during the afternoon, as the high exits the area. Overnight tonight, a mid-level low over the Northern Plains will extend a trough axis over the CWA. At the surface, the cold front is not expected to pass through until about 12Z.
Light south winds of 5 to 10 mph developing later today will not be enough to raise the dew points, and another night of decoupled winds should make the Tuesday morning low only a degree or two warmer than what is expected this morning. Mid to upper level ridging develops quickly over TX today, allowing for abundant sunshine and a return to high temperatures near seasonal normals if not a degree or two warmer. High pressure ridge begins to flatten late Tuesday, which should allow for a slight bump in south winds by late in the day, but another warm and dry day will allow the high temperatures to warm an extra degree or three over those for today.