Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Increasing heat toward the holiday weekend with temperatures returning to the lower 90s. Where things get a little uncertain however, is with the currently stalled cold front to our north. Initially this cold front was expected to move down during the overnight period, but latest CAMs are now struggling to get a timing on its decent with some model not seeing arrive till late Monday morning. Moving into Tuesday will see a more stagnate pattern push in with model agreement see a new upper-level high pressure system move in. Either way, temperature will look to be on the cooler side for the next two day with afternoon highs sitting in the mid to low 80s.
(Today through Tuesday) The Subtropical Ridge remains over eastern Texas while upper level troughing takes shape over northern Mexico into Western Texas today. The Ridge builds a little to the west over eastern parts of our area on Tuesday. This causes the low chances of showers and thunderstorms to continue out west while wane over the eastern areas.
1234 AM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025 A generally light northerly flow pattern aloft will continue through Tuesday as our local region remains in between an upper-level ridge over the south central US and a large tropical upper low (or TUTT) that is off the Florida Atlantic coast. Global ensemble guidance continues to suggest that the highest rainfall amounts will be seen closer to the coast, especially over the western Florida Panhandle.
/NEW/ /Monday through Monday night/ Convection continues to occur to our west, north, and northeast tonight with an upper level ridge keeping North and Central Texas dry, but some of this may change Monday night. With the upper level ridge remaining over North and Central Texas today, afternoon highs will again reach the lower to mid 90s, and heat index values will pass the triple digit mark in many locations. Ridging will build in over midweek, forcing the front to retreat north. However, a weakness in the ridge will keep low PoPs in the forecast out west, and we'll need to keep an eye on the potential for interruptions to July 4th activities.
- The week will start off relatively cooler before temperatures climb and heat builds toward the end of the week and weekend. An upper-level trough is digging into the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest per water vapor imagery this morning, its associated cold front surging southeastward through the Dakotas and Minnesota. On the lower end, instability may not peak above 1,000 J/kg of SBCAPE if cloud cover is too dense, and on the higher end, values could get as high as 2,000-3,000 J/kg. The front moves through the CWA tonight as the trough digs into the Ohio Valley, deepening northwesterly flow over the region. An area of high pressure, characterized by seasonable temperatures (highs in the mid to upper 80s), will advect into the CWA for Tuesday, leading to a relatively cool, lower humidity day.
1226 AM PDT Mon Jun 30 2025 - Temperatures trending much warmer through Tuesday including moderate to locally major HeatRisk Monday and Tuesday.
Additionally, added forcing from a passing upper trough and approaching front may help to elevate rain chances today and tomorrow.
High pressure develops across the northern high plains, placing southwest Kansas in northeasterly winds.
115 AM EDT Mon Jun 30 2025 Bermuda high pressure will remain offshore into the early part of the week.
Robust thunderstorm activity could begin by early this afternoon across eastern Kansas, then a second round is possible late tonight into the overnight hours as storms roll off the High Plains. Meanwhile, a fairly stout deep layer trough is trekking its way across the northern plains today and will serve as a catalyst for another round of thunderstorm development across the High Plains later this afternoon and evening. In the wake of today's system, cooler temperatures will be in store for Monday night through Tuesday night along with drier conditions, especially on Tuesday.
The upper level high will keep the higher chances north and west; additionally, an MCV currently moving northeast through north central Oklahoma may provide some local enhancement to thunderstorm chances. Additional thunderstorms will be possible (30-50% chance) as a cold front surges south toward the Oklahoma Kansas border. Day (Monday through Tuesday night) The cold front will push into Oklahoma early Monday morning, reaching a southwest to northeast orientation through central Oklahoma by peak heating. Heat indices in the upper 90s to the lower 100s are again expected on Monday (though northwest Oklahoma may be cooler with the passage of the cold front). Tuesday will be a relatively cool day with apparent temperatures about 4-8 degrees cooler across most of the forecast area.
This circulation is indicative of a mid/upper ridge that will dominate SE Texas weather through the end of the week. The ridge is expected to build as mid-level dry air increases, thanks in part to the much spoken about Saharan Dust in the mid-levels.
1240 AM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025 - Breezy through Monday, with slightly cooler temperatures and lower humidity.
That said the weak broad ridge currently over the region will get nudged west as a L/W trough pushes through the central CONUS tomorrow and digs all the way into the southeastern CONUS.
(Today through Tuesday) Central Alabama remains positioned on the southern periphery of a larger troughing regime developing over the Midwest region. Longwave troughing will deepen over the Great Lakes tonight with the base extending into the Southeast region.
Updated at 330 AM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025 - High humidity and heat will build across the Mid-South this afternoon ahead of a cold front. - There is a low chance (<30%) of strong to severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening ahead of a cold front.
232 AM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025 - Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorm possible Monday afternoon through Tuesday as a cold front moves south into Arkansas. This wl allow for a few days worth of "relatively" cooler condns and heat index values below 100 degrees, though Srn AR may not see as much relief.
Amplification of a northern stream trough occurs across the Midwest on Monday. This will send a cold front through the region Monday night into early Tuesday morning. Guidance continues to show the rest of this week dry as upper level ridging builds across the region. Toward the end of the forecast period, another trough moves into the plains and begins to bring low-end PoPs into portions of the area. Temperatures in the upper 80's early to mid week will rise into the low to mid 90's by the end of the week and into the weekend. Otherwise, the better chance of more widespread organized shower and thunderstorm activity will be Monday afternoon into Monday evening as a cold front approaches/moves through the area from west to east.
A cold front tracking southward into the area could serve as the focus for additional development later this morning, though confidence is low in coverage and placement of storms along the boundary.
Surface ridging should be in place the bulk of the time. We will see a slow warming trend through the week after near normal highs on Tuesday in the lower 80s.
Beyond Tuesday temperatures will gradually decrease as low pressure pushes into southeastern California, southern Nevada, and northwestern Arizona. Moisture will begin to creep up the Colorado River Valley tomorrow as we find ourselves sandwiched between the Four Corners High to the east and a low pressure system to our west.
An area of low pressure could develop drawing even more moisture over the area.
A cold front will move through Monday night into Tuesday bringing with it additional thunderstorm chances.
949 PM MDT Sun Jun 29 2025 - Afternoon convection will bring some gusty outflow winds to the area, mainly over the higher terrain. As expected, increased moisture and daytime heating have allowed convection to fire over the higher terrain this afternoon. A closed low pressure over the coast of SoCal, and a high pressure over the Southern Plains. Therefore expect scattered afternoon convection over the higher terrain perhaps propagating over some of the valleys through evening.
An upper level ridge will strengthen over the area, bringing warmer temperatures each day through Tuesday. A trough off the CA coast will bring midlevel moisture along the NV border on Monday afternoon, with a 10-20 percent chance of thunderstorms along the NV border. Temperatures in the Treasure Valley and Weiser Basin will be in the low 100s Tuesday afternoon, where a Heat Advisory remains in effect.
Pattern Synopsis: Ridging will continue to slide east of the region tonight as troughing digs over the northern Great Plains. Said troughing will amplify with time on Monday as it slides over the Upper Midwest, eventually working overhead Monday night. At the surface, the broad parent cyclone will slowly pivot across James Bay and over parts of Quebec through the period. An attendant weak cold front looks to swing across northern Michigan during the day Monday. Expectation for the daytime Monday is that the combination of outflow from morning storms and the diffuse cold front working across the area will likely focus scattered showers and storms across the southeast CWA, with chances beginning late morning/early afternoon as the airmass destabilizes along/ahead of the boundary. Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Heights will rise across the Great Lakes on Tuesday as troughing departs to our east.
- A drier trend continues for Independence Day with seasonal highs in the lower 90s. With deep, rich, boundary layer moisture in place, the approach of a cold front and its supportive upper energy thereof, we'll see scattered to numerous showers and storms develop today, esp after daybreak when instability peaks with increasing temperatures. The models continue to show a fropa tonight but may linger pops into Tuesday as the upper trof follows soon therafter with its passage. Once that occurs, we go drier and a little cooler for the mid week, with highs in the upper 80s and dew points in the upper 60s. A cold front makes passage tonight, ultimately drying things out and returning a restriction-free forecast to the terminals with time.
1021 PM PDT Sun Jun 29 2025 - Temperatures trending much warmer through Tuesday including moderate to locally major HeatRisk Monday and Tuesday.
Upper level ridging will build over the southwest CONUS on Tuesday, placing the Northern Plains downstream of the ridge. Upper level ridging persists through the middle of the week across the desert southwest.
217 AM MDT Mon Jun 30 2025 - Cooler today with storms focused over the southern foothills and South Park. This flow and trough are providing just enough lift and shear to allow for severe convection in our area. With a strong cap above the low level cool and moist air, it will take a very long time for the boundary layer to mix out.
251 AM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025 - Marginal risk for severe thunderstorms after 5 pm and continuing through tonight as a cold front crosses southwest Kansas. - Cooler temperatures will start off the work week but a warming trend will return to southwest Kansas mid to late week. High pressure develops across the northern high plains, placing southwest Kansas in northeasterly winds.
306 AM MDT Mon Jun 30 2025 - The start of the work week will bring slightly cooler temperatures and daily storms over the higher terrain. Temperatures across the region will be a bit cooler today, with 70s- 80s over most of our forecast area. Looking aloft, high pressure continues to build in from the southwest as yesterday's system moves off to the east. Temperatures will warm slightly on Tuesday, with slightly drier conditions over the plains as high pressure continues to build in overhead. General midlevel troughieness over the West Coast and ridging over the central plains will keep a generally somewhat moister pattern over the higher terrain while the plains will remain mostly dry this week into the July 4 Holiday weekend and beyond.
512 AM MDT Mon Jun 30 2025 - Cooler temperatures are expected Monday with only a few isolated showers or thunderstorms in the afternoon, mainly near the higher terrain of southeast Wyoming. For Monday a few upslope showers or storms may develop off of the high terrain in Wyoming, but probabilities are overall on the low side and we'll see this quickly wane with the setting of the sun. Otherwise today and tomorrow will be the coolest days of the period, with highs today in the 70's to 80's with widespread highs on Monday in the 70's to low 80's thanks to the cold front.
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: An upper ridge will be building across the region over the next few days bringing hot and dry weather through midweek.
555 AM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025 - Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorm possible Monday afternoon through Tuesday as a cold front moves south into Arkansas. This wl allow for a few days worth of "relatively" cooler condns and heat index values below 100 degrees, though Srn AR may not see as much relief.
620 AM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025 - Scattered showers and thunderstorms today as a weak cold front moves into the area, with a limited severe weather threat.
This will focus the higher pops of the day to the afternoon hours, mainly in the south and east 1/2 of the CWA, which is generally where SPC is showing a Marginal (level 1) risk for severe storms. Today's highs with cloud cover issues at times, are expected to be in the lower to mid 80s, with dew point values falling from the lower 70s to mid 60s by evening. Tonight, a pleasant evening is in store for outdoor activities as dew points continue to fall, and temperatures eventually settle back to the lower to mid 60s.
- Scattered showers and thunderstorms today as a weak cold front moves into the area, with a limited severe weather threat.
The ridge will remain across the Desert Southwest today, as the high settles in over New Mexico. Daytime highs exceeding 110 degrees are expected through Tuesday in the lower elevations of the Grand Canyon and the Extreme Heat Warning remains in effect for areas below 4000 feet in the Grand Canyon through Tuesday. Clouds will increase across the higher terrain today, but with the sub-cloud layer remaining very dry, we are unlikely to see much more than virga or some sprinkles today but could lead to some dry thunderstorms across the area.
525 AM MDT Mon Jun 30 2025 - Cooler and drier today. Once the storms clear, a cooler day is forecast as the upper trough finishes swinging through the Plains and on the back side of the cold front. Low temperatures are forecast to be a bit cooler in the 50s and low 60s.
506 AM MDT Mon Jun 30 2025 - The start of the work week will bring slightly cooler temperatures and daily storms over the higher terrain. Temperatures across the region will be a bit cooler today, with 70s- 80s over most of our forecast area. Looking aloft, high pressure continues to build in from the southwest as yesterday's system moves off to the east. Temperatures will warm slightly on Tuesday, with slightly drier conditions over the plains as high pressure continues to build in overhead. General midlevel troughieness over the West Coast and ridging over the central plains will keep a generally somewhat moister pattern over the higher terrain while the plains will remain mostly dry this week into the July 4 Holiday weekend and beyond.
5 inch mark across south central PA as a warm front surges north. This influx of moisture will occur downstream of an amplifying mid-upper trough moving into the Upper Midwest and western Great Lakes. The aforementioned mid-level trough will shift east from the Great Lakes to the Northeast on Tuesday. Storms should eventually congeal into a more solid line as the front makes closer approach, maintaining a damaging wind threat into the Lower Susquehanna Valley.
Firstly, high pressure remains over the Gulf Coast States. Secondly, a trough will track eastward through the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys, reaching the Great Lakes region by the end of today. Lastly, a deepening upper low off the coast of California will slowly push on shore. Southerly surface flow will prevail for the first half of the day but should shift to the north as the upper trough pushes a front through the region by the time of peak heating. Cooler air following the front and mostly cloudy skies in the afternoon will keep keep temperatures below normal with highs in the 80s mostly for areas on the Caprock.
The presence of a lingering tropical upper tropospheric trough (TUTT) over the Bahamas will act to enhance activity, with forecast soundings showing CAPE > 3000 J/kg, 500 mb temperatures staying below -8C and lapse rates 6-7 C/km in the early afternoon hours. On Tuesday, mid-level troughing will begin to develop across the Midwest, eventually absorbing the TUTT as it continues to drift northward. Heat indices across the interior and southwest Florida could peak in the low 100s.
523 AM MDT Mon Jun 30 2025 - Afternoon convection will bring gusty outflow winds to the area, mainly over the higher terrain. High pressure continues to build over eastern Utah and western Colorado today with warm and dry conditions remaining in place for most. PWATs up to 125-150% of normal advect into the southeastern portions of the forecast area this afternoon helping to initiate convection over the higher terrain, especially the southern Divide mountains. A closed low pressure over the coast of SoCal, and a high pressure over the Southern Plains. Therefore expect scattered afternoon convection over the higher terrain perhaps propagating over some of the valleys through evening.
448 AM PDT Mon Jun 30 2025 - Temperatures trending much warmer through Tuesday including moderate to locally major HeatRisk Monday and Tuesday.
405 AM MDT Mon Jun 30 2025 - Afternoon convection will bring gusty outflow winds to the area, mainly over the higher terrain. High pressure continues to build over eastern Utah and western Colorado today with warm and dry conditions remaining in place for most. PWATs up to 125-150% of normal advect into the southeastern portions of the forecast area this afternoon helping to initiate convection over the higher terrain, especially the southern Divide mountains. A closed low pressure over the coast of SoCal, and a high pressure over the Southern Plains. Therefore expect scattered afternoon convection over the higher terrain perhaps propagating over some of the valleys through evening.
525 AM MDT Mon Jun 30 2025 - Cooler today with storms focused over the southern foothills and South Park. This flow and trough are providing just enough lift and shear to allow for severe convection in our area. With a strong cap above the low level cool and moist air, it will take a very long time for the boundary layer to mix out.
622 AM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025 (Today through Tuesday) Central Alabama remains positioned on the southern periphery of a larger troughing regime developing over the Midwest region. Longwave troughing will deepen over the Great Lakes tonight with the base extending into the Southeast region.
618 AM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025 Updated at 612 AM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025 - High humidity and heat will build across the Mid-South this afternoon ahead of a cold front. - There is a low chance (<30%) of strong to severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening ahead of a cold front.
Expect widespread highs in the low to mid 90s across the interior valleys. Cooler conditions return by midweek, although temperatures will still stay a bit above normal for early July.
With a cold front trying to sag south into the region, high pressure aloft will wedge itself into western portions of the region. Here, highs will warm into the low and middle 90s. This, coupled with dew points in the low and middle 70s, will yield afternoon heat index values around 105 today. Additionally, added forcing from a passing upper trough and approaching front may help to elevate rain chances today and tomorrow.
Clouds already present and more clouds associated with shower activity will help keep high temperatures a bit cooler, only into the mid/upper 80s. Low temperatures will fall mainly into the lower 70s with light winds.
Cold frontal passage Tuesday with strong to severe storms.
Winds aloft remain relatively weak, so storms today will tend to be slow-moving, which does increase the likelihood of localized flooding with the higher rainfall rates. CAMs show a decrease in activity after sunset, but more activity is expected to develop prior to dawn on Tuesday as an upper trough approaches the area. More scattered storms will develop during the day on Tuesday as the trough moves through the area.
- A drier trend continues for Independence Day with seasonal highs in the lower 90s. With deep, rich, boundary layer moisture in place, the approach of a cold front and its supportive upper energy thereof, we'll see scattered to numerous showers and storms develop today, esp after daybreak when instability peaks with increasing temperatures. The models continue to show a fropa tonight but may linger pops into Tuesday as the upper trof follows soon thereafter with its passage. Once that occurs, we go drier and a little cooler for the mid week, with highs in the upper 80s and dew points in the upper 60s.
100 PM MDT Mon Jun 30 2025 - Cooler and drier today. A broad upper ridge centered over the southern plains today will slowly move east through mid week as a trough digs into the southwest CONUS. Today and tonight will be dry with the slightly cooler and more stable air mass in place along with the ridge aloft. Tomorrow, CAMs show convection initiating along the lee trough from northeast Colorado to southeast Wyoming in the afternoon, helped by a weak disturbance topping the ridge.
Updated at 230 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025 - There is a low chance (<30%) of strong to severe thunderstorms along and north of the I-40 corridor this afternoon and evening ahead of a cold front. - There is another low chance (<30%) of strong to severe thunderstorms over northeast Mississippi tomorrow afternoon as the cold front slowly advances southeast.
1242 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025 - Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorm possible Monday afternoon through Tuesday as a cold front moves south into Arkansas. This wl allow for a few days worth of "relatively" cooler condns and heat index values below 100 degrees, though Srn AR may not see as much relief.
1123 AM MDT Mon Jun 30 2025 - Cooler temperatures are expected Monday with only a few isolated showers or thunderstorms in the afternoon, mainly near the higher terrain of southeast Wyoming. For Monday a few upslope showers or storms may develop off of the high terrain in Wyoming, but probabilities are overall on the low side and we'll see this quickly wane with the setting of the sun. Otherwise today and tomorrow will be the coolest days of the period, with highs today in the 70's to 80's with widespread highs on Monday in the 70's to low 80's thanks to the cold front.
1131 AM MDT Mon Jun 30 2025 - Afternoon convection will bring gusty outflow winds to the area, mainly over the higher terrain. High pressure continues to build over eastern Utah and western Colorado today with warm and dry conditions remaining in place for most. PWATs up to 125-150% of normal advect into the southeastern portions of the forecast area this afternoon helping to initiate convection over the higher terrain, especially the southern Divide mountains. A closed low pressure over the coast of SoCal, and a high pressure over the Southern Plains. Therefore expect scattered afternoon convection over the higher terrain perhaps propagating over some of the valleys through evening.
1235 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025 Updated at 1223 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025 - High humidity and heat will build across the Mid-South this afternoon ahead of a cold front. - There is a low chance (<30%) of strong to severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening ahead of a cold front.