Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A broad high pressure continues to dominate the pattern. There is some good news though the high pressure will shift further east over the next day and a half. This will allow the low level flow to turn ever so slightly further south and eventually southwesterly. Water vapor imagery highlights the MCV swirl just W of the SD/MN border & the mid-upper level trough that is providing just enough forcing to support scattered shower chances across western Minnesota today & Monday.
727 AM EDT Sun Aug 3 2025 High pressure over the Great Lakes region will remain in place through Monday.
532 AM EDT Sun Aug 3 2025 Cooler and drier conditions are expected over the weekend. Previous Discussion: Quiet and dry conditions will continue today under high pressure. Otherwise, daytime high temperatures will be near or slightly below average; lingering in the low-80s. Temperatures will be slightly warmer than Sunday, but comfortable dew points are anticipated to continue as low-level flow from the southeast will cause dry air to sink over the western ridges and overspread into western Pennsylvania.
Issued by National Weather Service Burlington VT 620 AM EDT Sun Aug 3 2025 High pressure dominating the region will yield a prolonged period of dry weather across eastern New York and western New England.
648 AM EDT Sun Aug 3 2025 Cooler and drier conditions are expected over the weekend. Previous Discussion: Quiet and dry conditions will continue today under high pressure. Otherwise, daytime high temperatures will be near or slightly below average; lingering in the low-80s. Temperatures will be slightly warmer than Sunday, but comfortable dew points are anticipated to continue as low-level flow from the southeast will cause dry air to sink over the western ridges and overspread into western Pennsylvania.
622 AM CDT Sun Aug 3 2025 Drier air continues to advect into the region in the wake of a summer-style cold front, with dewpoints already slipping into the upper 60s across AR, parts of north MS, and parts of north LA early this morning. Heading through the work week, daytime temps will begin to trend back up as mid level ridging attempts to build back in from the west.
625 AM EDT Sun Aug 3 2025 Cool Canadian high pressure will extend into the region from the north through the weekend into Monday. High pressure (1025 mb) centered over PA will continue to extend into our region today and tonight. All the lows will be 10 to 15 degrees below normal for what generally is the period of the year (summer) in which the warmest overnight lows occur in NC. However, the mid/upper levels should see the development of troughiness to our west along the MS River and western OH Valley.
646 AM CDT Sun Aug 3 2025 - Some drier air will move into the area for today and Monday with lower rain chances, however, the lower humidity will help keep the heat risk in check with no heat advisories planned at this time. - By mid week the forecast area will be between an upper level ridge centered over the southwest U. and the subtropical ridge to the east.
Near the surface, a lee side trough of low pressure remains anchored in eastern Colorado. With that, thunderstorm development will be possible late afternoon/early evening as H5 vort maxima transition southeast through the high plains of western Kansas, interacting with a widespread field of steepening low/mid- level lapse rates. South-southeast winds around 10 to 20kt are forecast to persist through much of the period as a lee side trough of low pressure remains anchored in extreme southeast Colorado.
926 AM EDT Sun Aug 3 2025 High pressure traversing north of the area provides a mainly dry finish to the weekend.
938 AM EDT Sun Aug 3 2025 Dry conditions, low humidity, and seasonably cool temperatures are expected through Monday as broad high pressure drifts across the Northeast.
In- conjunction with more influence by the approaching high on large scale UL subsidence, lift for thunderstorms today will have to take place under a notable perturbation ridge roller and/or originate over the high terrain on New Mexico and move into the Panhandles region.
232 PM EDT Sun Aug 3 2025 An expansive area of high pressure across the Great Lakes and Northeast will continue to influence the weather pattern through mid-week. Efficient radiative cooling will occur overnight, leading to another comfortable morning on Monday with low temperatures in the low to mid-50s. Seasonable highs in the low to mid-80s are expected for Monday with comfortable dew points in the 50s.
237 PM EDT Sun Aug 3 2025 A cold front approaches from the north this evening, then slowly pushes south through Maine, as it weakens, from late tonight into Monday night.
A upper trough axis will approach the area Monday afternoon. Models show mainly diurnal activity on Monday with temperatures slightly warmer in the upper 70s to lower 80s but still well below normals for this time of year.
128 PM EDT Sun Aug 3 2025 High pressure over the Great Lakes region will remain in place through Monday.
Temperatures are pleasant and winds are light as high pressure lingers overhead. The high pressure will slowly push east over Lake Michigan Monday morning. As the high moves eastward it is expected to strengthen which will keep conditions the same as they have been the past couple of days. Under the light winds it will be hard to mix out any smoke until the high moves east and winds increase.
253 PM EDT Sun Aug 3 2025 High pressure and dry conditions will continue to be in place for much of the week. Remaining pretty quiet in the near term with high pressure settled overhead through tomorrow night. Temperatures will be on the rise tomorrow with the entire CWA into the low and mid 80s.
122 PM EDT Sun Aug 3 2025 Seasonable temperatures today will slowly rise through mid week while high pressure helps to maintain dry weather. KEY MESSAGES: - Seasonable weather today only marred by hazy skies from wildfire smoke - Localized river valley fog possible after midnight --------------------------------------------------------------- High pressure and weak flow aloft will continue to support dry weather across the Upper Ohio River Valley today. ---------------------------------------------------------------- Temperatures will be slightly warmer than observed today as ridging continues to build across the region, however, with dewpoints remaining in the 50s, conditions will remain relatively comfortable to start off the week. KEY MESSAGES: - Low probability showers/storms return during the second half of the week - Pattern shift later in the weekend ------------------------------------------------------------------- Latest ensemble guidance shows a slight chance of showers returning midweek as upper trough moves into the eastern CONUS.
Tomorrow the upper level ridge in place over the desert southwest will strengthen and amplify the ridge over Colorado, which really limits the flow aloft and brings in very dry air.
149 PM EDT Sun Aug 3 2025 High pressure will extend southward from New England across the Mid-Atlantic, and remain wedged against the eastern face of the Appalachians for much of the coming workweek, resulting in windflow from the east to northeast.
- Near daily shower and storm chances (10-30% chance) will continue through the week, with the highest chances being each evening and overnight.
Key Message(s): - Cooler Conditions Continue with Showers through the Afternoon The front remains just south of the forecast area with drier air filtering into the northern area. Rain will lead to cooler highs in the Central Savannah River Area, where blended guidance indicates that highs will struggle to reach 80.
The forecast area is positioned at the base of the broad trough of low pressure at high levels east of the MS River. This trough moves little as it is sandwiched between two high pressure systems, one over TX and the other off the southeast US coast through at least the middle of the week. 3" remain aligned over the front and coupled with the passage of mid- level impulses rounding the base of the mean trough position favors increased probabilities of showers and storms through the course of the next several days. The boundary will serve to focus convective activity with the higher rain chances favored generally across the eastern portion of the area (along/east of I-65 corridor to the Gulf coast) the next few days.
This is courtesy of a back door cold front draped across the area further supported by CAD just to our east over the Appalachians. ESE flow at the surface will allow the back door cold front to gradually move west and weaken through the day. With that being said, as the front moves through, our rain chances look to greatly fall off through the afternoon as a layer of dry air in the low levels arrives. This will amount to much cooler than normal temperatures across the area. How much cooler you may ask, well, about 10 degrees! The unique pattern for early August will present an opportunity to tie or set some new minimum max temperatures.
Seeing some early morning thunderstorms across northern Harney and Baker counties ahead of an upper trough that's approaching the Pac NW coast. The focus of stronger storm development will be across e-central Oregon (mostly north of Hwy 20) and southwest Idaho from the lower Snake Plain into the w-central ID mtns. Separately a combination of outflow winds and cold a frontal passage will result in widespread 30-45 mph wind gusts with locally stronger speeds possible (up to 55 mph) as it pushes from SE Oregon into SW Idaho, to include the lower Treasure Valley. Cold front between 04/01z-05z, with NW gusts to 25-40 kt possible.
(This evening through Monday night) A weak surface front/trough still resides over the northern Gulf just south of the coast. Being on the western periphery of this feature or behind the trough/front, convection has been limited today and should continue to be for much of the CWFA. Going into tonight and especially during the day on Monday an H5 weakness will sharpen as an impulse moves downstream from the Red River Valley into the Lower MS River Valley. Again, similar to today, being on the western periphery of the surface features as well as positioned in dry northwest flow, the higher rain chances will remain east.
- Another cooler than average set of lows and highs for Monday.
CAMs exhibit a good deal of spread on the exact location of where convection will develop, but greatest consensus is across southwestern into central Oklahoma along the terminus of the low-level jet, which is where we have focused our highest PoPs during the overnight period.
This is likely due to a layer of drier air in the lower to mid levels as seen on our 12Z sounding from this morning. With high pressure in place, and a very similar set up as yesterday, no changes or updates are needed at this time. Mention of VCSH or VCTS remains out of the TAFs due to the low probability of near 10 percent, and low confidence in exact location of any showers or thunderstorms.
The forecast area is postioned at the base of the broad trough of low pressure at high levels east of the MS River. This trough moves little as it is sandwiched between two high pressure systems, one over TX and the other off the southeast US coast through at least the middle of the week. 3" remain aligned over the front and coupled with the passage of mid- level impulses rounding the base of the mean trough position favors increased probabilities of showers and storms through the course of the next several days. The boundary will serve to focus convective activity with the higher rain chances favored generally across the eastern portion of the area (along/east of I-65 corridor to the Gulf coast) the next few days.
152 PM EDT Sun Aug 3 2025 High pressure traversing north of the area provides a pleasant finish to the weekend.
Slight chances for afternoon showers and thunderstorms return near the middle of the week, mainly over the higher terrain. A strong ridge over south-central Arizona will wobble a bit east and west over the next several days, then will wobble a bit north and northwest late in the forecast period.
141 PM EDT Sun Aug 3 2025 (Today through Monday) Model trends remain fairly consistent in having broad high pressure dominating the NE CONUS, while mid-upper level troughiness over the eastern states will keep an associated sfc boundary stretching across the Florida panhandle through Monday. Meanwhile, high pressure remains in control of the rest of the Florida peninsula, keeping a generally seasonal weather pattern across SoFlo during the next couple of days.
Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Split large scale flow pattern across North America; northern branch displaced well to the north around a ridge over the Canadian Prairies and troughing over Quebec and Atlantic Canada. Weaker southern branch meandering beneath the upper ridge with several disturbances rippling through.
351 PM EDT Sun Aug 3 2025 High pressure and dry conditions will continue to be in place for much of the week. Remaining pretty quiet in the near term with high pressure settled overhead through tomorrow night. Temperatures will be on the rise tomorrow with the entire CWA into the low and mid 80s.
- Cooler than normal weather continues through Monday with highs in the 80s and lows mostly in the 60s.
Latest RAP/NAM12 runs hint at the low level convergence axis shifting west as wedge flow nudges further into the state.
High pressure has made skies clear and winds light and variable. Patterson Issued 355 AM CDT Sun Aug 3 2025 Today and Tonight: It will be quiet again today under high pressure, with plenty of sunshine and light winds expected along with near normal high temperatures. The main weather concern will be lingering wildfire smoke under the high.
Issued by National Weather Service Albany NY 147 PM EDT Sun Aug 3 2025 High pressure will remain over the North Country through much of the week, resulting in little or no rainfall. A cold front passes down into the region on Monday but it mostly washes out.
Cooler temps tonight, along with an increase in particulate matter could allow for some patchy fog early Monday morning. Weak flow and high pressure will continue to dominate the weather pattern this week. There was some hope of a weak trough midweek but the high overhead should bifurcate any moisture and while there is a small chance for some showers to form on any lake boundary, those chances are low.
1252 PM EDT Sun Aug 3 2025 Cool Canadian high pressure will extend into the region from the north through the weekend into Monday. Daytime mixing has lowered surface dewpoints into the lower into the mid to upper 50s across much of the area, bringing very comfortable humidity levels as high temperatures top out in the upper 70s to lower 80s. However, the mid/upper levels should see the development of troughiness to our west along the MS River and western OH Valley.
Near the surface, a lee side trough of low pressure remains anchored in eastern Colorado. With that, thunderstorm development will be possible late afternoon/early evening as H5 vort maxima transition southeast through the high plains of western Kansas, interacting with a widespread field of steepening low/mid- level lapse rates. An upper level trough will approach southwest Kansas late this afternoon and early tonight bringing VFR ceilings between 4000 and 8000 ft AGL.
(Tonight) The backdoor cold front is continuing to move west across the area. At the surface, it has brought a layer of cooler and drier air into NE AL which is one of the main reasons we have yet to see any significant coverage or intensity of rainfall today. This has lead to a 10+ degree temperature gradient from NW AL in the low to mid 80s to NE AL in the low to mid 70s.
This is likely due to a layer of drier air in the lower to mid levels as seen on our 12Z sounding from this morning. With high pressure in place, and a very similar set up as yesterday, no changes or updates are needed at this time.
Key Message(s): - Cooler wedge conditions with showers continue.
742 PM EDT Sun Aug 3 2025 High pressure will remain over the North Country through much of the week, resulting in little or no rainfall. A cold front passes down into the region on Monday but it mostly washes out.
737 PM EDT Sun Aug 3 2025 Seasonable temperatures will slowly rise through mid week while high pressure helps to maintain dry weather. KEY MESSAGES: - Seasonably cool and dry - Localized river valley fog possible after midnight --------------------------------------------------------------- High pressure and weak flow aloft will continue to support dry weather across the Upper Ohio River Valley. ---------------------------------------------------------------- Temperatures will be slightly warmer than observed today as ridging continues to build across the region, however, with dewpoints remaining in the 50s, conditions will remain relatively comfortable to start off the week. KEY MESSAGES: - Low probability showers/storms return during the second half of the week - Pattern shift later in the weekend ------------------------------------------------------------------- Latest ensemble guidance shows a slight chance of showers returning midweek as upper trough moves into the eastern CONUS.
634 PM CDT Sun Aug 3 2025 (This evening through Monday night) A weak surface front/trough still resides over the northern Gulf just south of the coast. Being on the western periphery of this feature or behind the trough/front, convection has been limited today and should continue to be for much of the CWFA. Going into tonight and especially during the day on Monday an H5 weakness will sharpen as an impulse moves downstream from the Red River Valley into the Lower MS River Valley. Again, similar to today, being on the western periphery of the surface features as well as positioned in dry northwest flow, the higher rain chances will remain east.
508 PM EDT Sun Aug 3 2025 High pressure and dry conditions will continue to be in place for much of the week. Remaining pretty quiet in the near term with high pressure settled overhead through tomorrow night. Temperatures will be on the rise tomorrow with the entire CWA into the low and mid 80s.
645 PM CDT Sun Aug 3 2025 (Tonight) The backdoor cold front is continuing to move west across the area. At the surface, it has brought a layer of cooler and drier air into NE AL which is one of the main reasons we have yet to see any significant coverage or intensity of rainfall today. This has lead to a 10+ degree temperature gradient from NW AL in the low to mid 80s to NE AL in the low to mid 70s.
809 PM EDT Sun Aug 3 2025 High pressure will extend southward from New England across the Mid-Atlantic, and remain wedged against the eastern face of the Appalachians for much of the coming workweek, resulting in windflow from the east to northeast.
High pressure ridging continues to influence the local area while a frontal boundary remains stalled to the north across S GA/N FL.
CAMs suggest a lot less coverage in the rainfall category tomorrow, but with the clouds and continued troughing across the region, temperatures will remain well below seasonal averages. A upper trough axis will approach the area Monday afternoon. Models show mainly diurnal activity on Monday with temperatures slightly warmer in the upper 70s to lower 80s but still well below normals for this time of year.
729 PM EDT Sun Aug 3 2025 An expansive area of high pressure across the Great Lakes and Northeast will continue to influence the weather pattern through mid-week. Efficient radiative cooling will occur overnight, leading to another comfortable morning on Monday with low temperatures in the low to mid-50s. Seasonable highs in the low to mid-80s are expected for Monday with comfortable dew points in the 50s.
722 PM CDT Sun Aug 3 2025 - Another cooler than average set of lows and highs for Monday.
726 PM EDT Sun Aug 3 2025 High pressure and dry conditions will continue to be in place for much of the week. Remaining pretty quiet in the near term with high pressure settled overhead through tomorrow night. Temperatures will be on the rise tomorrow with the entire CWA into the low and mid 80s.
We had a late afternoon broken cloud line come to life off the Lower Keys. Convection started over Big Pine Key and slowly zipped down the Lower Keys.
1230 AM CDT Mon Aug 4 2025 (Rest of tonight and Monday) A back door cold front continues to drift westward tonight and based on IR Satellite imagery it is seen across portions of NW AL. As we start the new workweek, high pressure centered over the Appalachians will keep easterly flow in place across the Tennessee Valley. Normal highs for this time of year is in the lower 90s.
Little change in the synoptic pattern is anticipated over Lower Michigan today as both weak surface and H5 ridging stalls over the region. Largely a persistence forecast for today across the cwa with perhaps temperatures a couple of degrees warmer due to another day of airmass modification.
Flow around high pressure situated well to our south and a passing trough over Idaho will keep southwesterly flow across our region.
100 AM EDT Mon Aug 4 2025 High pressure will extend southward from New England across the Mid-Atlantic, and remain wedged against the eastern face of the Appalachians for much of the coming workweek, resulting in windflow from the east to northeast.
Otherwise, dry conditions continue under high pressure. Little change in the synoptic pattern is anticipated over Lower Michigan today as both weak surface and H5 ridging stalls over the region. Largely a persistence forecast for today across the cwa with perhaps temperatures a couple of degrees warmer due to another day of airmass modification.
138 AM EDT Mon Aug 4 2025 A large area of high pressure in the eastern Great Lakes region will keep a dry east wind over much of the Ohio Valley through the early part of the forecast.
112 AM EDT Mon Aug 4 2025 High pressure and dry conditions will continue to be in place for much of the week. Remaining pretty quiet in the near term with high pressure settled overhead through tomorrow night. Temperatures will be on the rise tomorrow with the entire CWA into the low and mid 80s.
- Cooler than normal weather continues today with highs in the 80s and lows mostly in the 60s.
Key Message(s): - Cooler conditions continue with periods of rain today. Strong high pressure will build back into southern Canada and reinforce the unusual August pattern of cold air damming into the area. Cooler conditions continue into tonight with lows in the mid to upper 60s.
150 AM EDT Mon Aug 4 2025 High pressure will be in control of the weather for most of the week.
Overnight lows will range between the lower to mid 50s.
The mid-level trough will push further southeast today however the rain chances never really approach the core Twin Cities metro.
1236 AM CDT Mon Aug 4 2025 (Rest of tonight and Monday) A back door cold front continues to drift westward tonight and based on IR Satellite imagery it is seen across portions of NW AL. As we start the new workweek, high pressure centered over the Appalachians will keep easterly flow in place across the Tennessee Valley. Normal highs for this time of year is in the lower 90s.
1108 PM CDT Sun Aug 3 2025 - Temperatures will remain cooler than seasonal normals on Monday, but a stout warm-up will commence for the rest of the week. this week will be a broadening upper ridge in the southwestern U. The ridge will be our forecast area's main concern, with a deep trough in the Pacific Northwest allowing for ridge amplification downstream (allowing for rising heights in much of the southern/central U.
The highest gust potential looks to be around 45 mph according the HREF, with MAYBE 60mph+ for any storm that can form and move across the Magic Valley and Snake Plain.