Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Forcing and moisture associated with the trough extends far enough north to brush into portions of west-central Minnesota this afternoon. Looking ahead ensemble guidance depicts an upper pattern that features a broad upper low over the Hudson Bay, with a progressive wave pattern to its southern flanks. As the main upper wave moves through and high pressure begins to build into the region Wednesday, CIGS to begin to lift through the day Wednesday with a transition to VFR expected through mid/late day toward the end of the current forecast period.
Early morning IR satellite imagery and regional radars are showing a band of thunderstorms pushing through the Gulf waters and approaching the Florida Peninsula associated with a potent cold front.
A little cooler today with highs in the mid 60s to near 70. Winds shift back to the south tonight and will begin to increase ahead of the next trough. With wind speeds staying up, overnight lows will stay up some as well with lows in the low to mid 40s.
Because of this temps will be slightly cooler by a few degrees in North Dakota but no other impacts. Forcing and moisture associated with the trough extends far enough north to brush into portions of west-central Minnesota this afternoon. Looking ahead ensemble guidance depicts an upper pattern that features a broad upper low over the Hudson Bay, with a progressive wave pattern to its southern flanks. IFR to MVFR clouds will continue through the overnight hours as a large low pressure system pulls away from the area.
Snow accumulations up to an inch are possible, with the highest totals west of I 69 and north of US 6. A warm front will continue to bring rain to northern portions of the forecast area for the next several hours before gradually lifting into Michigan. A robust upper low currently centered over Oklahoma will follow and bring even more rain during the day Wednesday in the form of scattered showers. Wrap around moisture behind the low will also bring light snow.
1135 PM CST Tue Mar 4 2025 - Elevated westerly and northwesterly winds behind a passing cold front will persist through Wednesday. For tonight, the high wind warning will be over as winds die down. High pressure will dominate the weather picture.
At the surface, the associated cyclone is centered over eastern Kansas and is resulting in the gradual northerly shift of winds throughout the area as it moves to the east.
(Tonight through Thursday Night) A deep low pressure system is sitting over northern MO and a line of light to moderate rain is moving east through Middle TN. We will get a break in precip with lows falling into the low to mid 40s. Upper level ridge builds in for Thursday and this will bring strong mid level substance that will keep clouds around for the start of the day.
- Cooler temperatures prevail over the remainder of the week before warming up this weekend. Snow is initially expected to be heavy and wet with low SLR's; however, as cooler air filters in, snow ratios will rise, leading to a transition to lighter and fluffier snow. There is some uncertainty regarding the North Shore Wind Advisory, but given the current forecast trends, it will remain in place as the low continues its approach.
Our KBYX radar was restored to service this afternoon, and it is currently showing some sea spray due to the higher winds over the water to our south.
Wrap around moisture behind the low will likely bring an additional chance for showers and a few rumbles of thunder as it moves across portions of the state. Additionally, some light snow cannot be ruled out across the highest elevations of northern Arkansas.
206 AM CST Wed Mar 5 2025 - Potent storm system moving east of the area today with quieter weather settling in - Northwest wind gusts up to 60 mph will continue through mid-morning - Very high fire danger expected today and Thursday - Mostly dry over the next 7 days As of 2 AM, the potent midlevel trough was moving into the mid/upper MS valley. The High Wind Warning remains in effect through 9 AM.
1157 PM CST Tue Mar 4 2025 (Tonight) A broad mid-lat cyclone is moving through portions of the central/eastern CONUS this evening, with an attendant cold front cutting north-south across the HUN CWA.
(Tonight) A broad mid-lat cyclone is moving through portions of the central/eastern CONUS this evening, with an attendant cold front cutting north-south across the HUN CWA.
(Today) In wake of the front and associated strong/severe storms that rumbled through the region this evening, strong gusty WSW winds continue across the Tennessee Valley due to the passing mid/upper low pressure system. As the base of the trough pivots through the Tennessee Valley later today, winds will veer to a more west to west-northwest direction by Wednesday morning.
An upper trough swinging through the Pac NW this evening is pushing a line of light precipitation across SW Idaho.
This system is exiting stage right but there is the H7 thermal trough that is moving through today possibly bringing some clouds to the northern portion of the area for a short time. The highest probability of this occurring is 40% for and particular location in the counties/parishes along the east-west MS/LA line.
236 AM MST Wed Mar 5 2025 KEY MESSAGES: - Weak disturbance and cold front will bring light snow showers across the north and west this afternoon.
/Issued 244 AM MST Wed Mar 5 2025/ - Meteorological Overview: Zonal flow aloft associated with upper level ridging mostly to the south of the Northern Rockies will be ushered out today as a sharp upper level trough across the far eastern Pacific Ocean slides eastward. Several embedded waves within this troughing consolidate tonight, though by that point will be over CA/NV and vicinity.
503 AM CST Wed Mar 5 2025 (Today) In wake of the front and associated strong/severe storms that rumbled through the region this evening, strong gusty WSW winds continue across the Tennessee Valley due to the passing mid/upper low pressure system. As the base of the trough pivots through the Tennessee Valley later today, winds will veer to a more west to west-northwest direction by Wednesday morning.
654 AM EST Wed Mar 5 2025 Early morning IR satellite imagery and regional radars are showing a band of thunderstorms pushing through the Gulf waters and approaching the Florida Peninsula associated with a potent cold front.
Thursday: Winds will pick up out of the north starting in the early morning hours as an area of low pressure strengthens over Utah and southern Idaho, creating a pressure gradient across our region.
Overnight water vapor imagery and RAP objective analysis fields showed our major storm continuing to pull away from Kansas with an upper level ridge building upstream across the West. Another upper low will mature across the Great Basin on Thursday, and southwest momentum will increase to our southwest, including through the boundary layer Thursday afternoon. A downslope warm plume will expand northeast toward far southwest Kansas Thursday afternoon, leading to afternoon temperatures into the lower 70s for Elkhart, Liberal, Ulysses to Syracuse.
The clouds to our NW are associated with the upper low. Also in conjunction with this feature, some light rain will be possible today into this evening with ripples around the low as it moves to the NE toward the Great Lakes by late Thu. Behind it high pressure will build today over C US from TX to the Dakotas, spreading into the MS River Valley tonight, and finally to the Deep South during the day Thu. Look for temperatures to be cooler today into Thu behind the front.
- Winds will be coming down gradually across the local area today, with the high wind warning (for gusts of 55 to 60 MPH) continuing through noon CST. - Lots of clouds upstream of the local area this morning, but at least partly sunny skies can be expected this afternoon as the departing area of low pressure tracks further east.
This is expected to come down further as we progress through the morning and hold around 15-30% due high pressure settling into the area. Otherwise, expect slightly cooler temperatures today with highs generally in the 70s across the region with some lower 80s out west. The slightly cooler temperatures will again be short lived as we will climb back into the upper 70s to the east with upper 80s out west.
Expect lingering showers over western Washington today with a weak trough overhead. High pressure will bring dry and stable weather Thursday through the weekend.
413 AM CST Wed Mar 5 2025 - Winds will be coming down gradually across the local area today, with the high wind warning (for gusts of 55 to 60 MPH) continuing through noon CST. - Lots of clouds upstream of the local area this morning, but at least partly sunny skies can be expected this afternoon as the departing area of low pressure tracks further east.
525 AM CST Wed Mar 5 2025 - Potent storm system moving east of the area today with quieter weather settling in - Northwest wind gusts up to 60 mph will continue through mid-morning - Very high fire danger expected today and Thursday - Mostly dry over the next 7 days As of 2 AM, the potent midlevel trough was moving into the mid/upper MS valley. The High Wind Warning remains in effect through 9 AM.
A secondary cold front does not pass until this evening where even stronger cold advection then moves in and overnight temperatures then fall into the upper 30s to low 40s.
A cold front swept through the mid state last evening, and a broad swath of occluded front moisture will produce sporadic showers across the region today and some snowfall mainly along the Cumberland Plateau tonight as temperatures there drop to or below freezing by Thursday morning. For this reason, a Winter Weather Advisory is in place for expected snowfall accumulations of 1 to 3 inches at the higher elevations.
Radar image is showing hints st some convective showers orientated from southwest to northeast ahead of an incoming upper low that is off the Oregon coast. A brief break is expected today as low pressure approaches the coastal waters today. As the low moves southward tonight into Thursday, gusty north winds and steep seas are expected.
(This afternoon through Thursday) The main upper low is beginning to move into the area this morning and we are seeing an increase in clouds and light rain across the north. Most of the rain should be out by Midnight, before any freezing temperatures work into the north.
A weak cold front is observed on GOES-E satellite just east of Tampa, and radar observations from KBYX detected isolated showers over the western Gulf waters ahead of the front. Temperatures are safely within the lower 80s, making for a humid, albeit uneventful afternoon. A well-developed mid latitude cyclone centered over Lake Michigan is responsible for the imminent cold front. In all, this cyclone is forcing yet another arctic air mass into the southeastern United States that will cause a change in weather for the Keys. The evening cold frontal passage across the Florida Keys is expected shortly after sunset. Observations of the post frontal environment near Tallahassee, Tampa, and Pensacola sampled dew points in the lower to mid 50s.
The low pressure system is currently centered over Michigan with the cold front just entering eastern Kentucky. As precipitation has wrapped around the low and CAA continues to counteract the diurnal temperature cycle, light rain will transition to light snow in the evening and last through most of the overnight period. Tonight, the low pressure system and associated deep troughing will continue to propagate to the northeast and begin to weaken the pressure gradients over the lower Ohio Valley. As the upper troughing exits the region and ridging builds in from the west, clouds will thin from west to east in the morning.
Light snow tonight across the higher elevations with wind chill values near zero across the high terrain of the Appalachians. Discussion: The upper-level trough axis shifts eastward this evening across our region with low clouds area-wide. Light snow is expected across the higher elevations. Most of the snowfall is expected across the higher terrain of the East Tennessee mountains along the North Carolina state line.
Morning weather across the Florida Keys remains rather uneventful, in contrast to the mid-latitude 980 mb cyclone centered over Lake Michigan generating Winter Storm Warnings over the upper Midwest and severe weather conditions over the eastern Carolinas. A cold front associated with this mature cyclone is visible on GOES-16 satellite observations passing across Tallahassee with an estimated time of passage across Florida Keys waters around 6 to 7 PM. Dew points at Key West and Key Largo already rose to the mid 70s and temperatures are gradually increasing towards the lower 80s across the island chain. From synopsis, a strong mid-latitude cyclone continues moving northeastward towards the western Great Lakes this morning. Its associated cold front extends southward through Dixie Alley and into the west-central Gulf.
The deep trough and associated 980mb low pressure system is finally exiting the Plains off to the northeast. Behind yesterday's cold front, temperatures this afternoon will only warm into the middle to upper 40s with overnight lows falling into the upper 20s under clear skies. As the trough continues to shift east through tomorrow and high pressure builds into the region setting up strong southerly flow, temperatures will rebound to near normal on Thursday as afternoon highs in the 50s are expected areawide. Along with the warmer temperatures, the southerly flow will also lead to increasing mid-level moisture across the Plains.
1135 AM CST Wed Mar 5 2025 - Winds will be coming down gradually across the local area today, with the high wind warning (for gusts of 55 to 60 MPH) continuing through noon CST. - Lots of clouds upstream of the local area this morning, but at least partly sunny skies can be expected this afternoon as the departing area of low pressure tracks further east.
All is generally on track for this near term forecast update with windy and much cooler conditions being observed this morning.
255 PM CST Wed Mar 5 2025 - Snowfall ends this evening across northwest Wisconsin along with diminishing winds as low pressure moves away from the region. Low pressure was located near Traverse City early this afternoon with high pressure stretching across the Plains states. Lingering snow showers on the backside of the low continued across northwest Wisconsin with some gravity wave snowfall setting up along the North Shore and parts of the South Shore. Temperatures are also expected to be above freezing ahead of this wave with at least some sun before it arrives, so pavement temperatures will likely be above freezing as well.
- Potent storm system moving east of the area today with quieter weather settling in - Northwest wind gusts up to 60 mph will continue through mid-morning - Very high fire danger expected today and Thursday - Mostly dry over the next 7 days As of 2 AM, the potent midlevel trough was moving into the mid/upper MS valley. The High Wind Warning remains in effect through 9 AM.
1255 PM EST Wed Mar 5 2025 A low pressure system continues to move through and impact our area, bringing periods of rain showers and gusty winds. Strong low pressure moving through the Great Lakes will drag a cold front through our CWA late this morning into the afternoon hours. As the cold air wraps around the low, precipitation will transition to a wintry mix then to all snow Wednesday evening into the night. Lingering snow showers move out of the region on Thursday as upper level convergent ridging moves into the Great Lakes region. Lows will range from the upper 20s to the lower 30s.
316 PM EST Wed Mar 5 2025 Strong low pressure will exit to the east overnight, with snow showers ending late.
/29 (Now through Thursday night) A large upper trof over the eastern CONUS moves off into the western Atlantic during the period, with upper ridging shifting across the central states then dampening fairly significantly while progressing into the eastern states. Lows tonight range from the mid/upper 30s inland to the lower 40s at the coast.
/86/OAJ/ All is generally on track for this near term forecast update with windy and much cooler conditions being observed this morning.
A dampening upper level low will approach the mid south late in the period.
1029 AM EST Wed Mar 5 2025 A low pressure system continues to move through and impact our area, bringing periods of rain showers and gusty winds. Strong low pressure moving through the Great Lakes will drag a cold front through our CWA late this morning into the afternoon hours. As the cold air wraps around the low, precipitation will transition to a wintry mix then to all snow Wednesday evening into the night. Lingering snow showers move out of the region on Thursday as upper level convergent ridging moves into the Great Lakes region. Lows will range from the upper 20s to the lower 30s.
An upper level trough off the Oregon coast will interact with a moisture plume over CA. As the trough moves southeast into the Great Basin, precipitation becomes widespread over southeast OR and southwest Idaho south of a line from Burns OR to Boise ID.
Portions of SE OK, SW AR, and north of I-20 in LA will have lower temperatures around freezing. High pressure will follow behind this system and bring some high clouds and light southerly winds to the area on Thursday.
An upper low remains offshore with instability gradually increasing over most of the area. Once this cirrus sheild moves east and we get some clearing, this in combination with the low moving towards the coast will set the table for convective showers to develop with most of the showers likely to be east of the Cascades. The upper trough will move south, just off the Oregon coast this evening and tonight. Snowfall amounts are expected to be highest over the higher terrain, like the Warners, and Summer Rim, with local amounts up to 8 inches. The upper trough will move south during the day Thursday with precipitation gradually diminishing from north to south.
505 PM CST Wed Mar 5 2025 - Windy and warmer weather is forecast for Thursday.
527 PM CST Wed Mar 5 2025 (This evening through Thursday night) Deep longwave trough axis that extends from the Great Lakes down to central Florida is well east of the local area. Should see a nice drop in overnight lows with the combo of lowering dewpoints and weakening wind field as high pressure tracks overhead. As the trough ejects eastward into the Atlantic Ocean, a generally flat upper level flow pattern will be in place across the region.
- Elevated westerly and northwesterly winds behind a passing cold front will persist today.
Temperatures this afternoon will be warmest across the North Bay with mid 50s to lower 60s and mid 50s across the rest of the region (aside from 40s in the higher elevations). In addition, we are expecting snow to fall in the region's highest peaks, especially those in the higher terrain of the Central Coast as snow levels drop to as low as 3,000 feet. Temperature for tomorrow afternoon will be similar to those today region wide, yet slightly cooler for the higher elevations.
943 PM EST Wed Mar 5 2025 Strong low pressure will exit to the east overnight, with snow showers ending late.
310 PM CST Wed Mar 5 2025 - Windy and warmer weather is forecast for Thursday.
(This evening through Thursday night) Deep longwave trough axis that extends from the Great Lakes down to central Florida is well east of the local area. Should see a nice drop in overnight lows with the combo of lowering dewpoints and weakening wind field as high pressure tracks overhead. As the trough ejects eastward into the Atlantic Ocean, a generally flat upper level flow pattern will be in place across the region.
622 PM CST Wed Mar 5 2025 - Elevated westerly and northwesterly winds behind a passing cold front will persist today.
641 PM EST Wed Mar 5 2025 Strong low pressure will exit to the east overnight, with snow showers ending late.
Tonight and Thursday Afternoon satellite imagery shows cloud cover beginning to increase as a developing area of low pressure moves across the Great Basin and is poised to impact eastern Idaho beginning later this evening. Latest 18Z runs of the HRRR and NAM have higher snowfall totals compared to their 12Z counterparts, including in the lower valleys of the Snake River Plain and Magic Valley. This will likely be the best time to get some accumulations into the lower Snake Plain and Magic Valley zones but as I said before, each model has a different opinion as to when this will happen and just how warm we'll actually get during the daytime hours.
The highest elevations could see up to 2 inches if enough moisture is able to squeeze out. Outside of snow, temperatures will drop at or below freezing for everyone tonight. A cold front swept through the mid state last evening, and a broad swath of occluded front moisture will produce sporadic showers across the region today and some snowfall mainly along the Cumberland Plateau tonight as temperatures there drop to or below freezing by Thursday morning. For this reason, a Winter Weather Advisory is in place for expected snowfall accumulations of 1 to 3 inches at the higher elevations.
109 AM EST Thu Mar 6 2025 Light snow is expected today, with most accumulation in the higher terrain where 2 to 4 inches is possible.
- Warmer temperatures today and Friday, then considerably cooler over the weekend.
With a lack of cloud cover allowing for substantial radiative cooling and an established colder airmass in place, overnight low temperatures are forecast to fall to near freezing across Oklahoma and Arkansas while the remainder of the ArkLaTex falls into the mid to upper 30s. Portions of SE OK, SW AR, and north of I-20 in LA will have lower temperatures around freezing. High pressure will follow behind this system and bring some high clouds and light southerly winds to the area on Thursday.
A cold front will move southeast across the Northland early this morning, arriving before sunrise in north-central Minnesota. Cooler air will accompany the high, mainly affecting the Arrowhead and areas along the International Border, with the coldest air staying to the north.
A trough digging down the California coastline will drive a cold front through Arizona Thursday morning. This trough is also splitting as additional energy injects cold air into the northwestern quadrant, this new energy will be the low that arrives Friday. The problem with that is that the amplitude of the trough is peaking now and by the time it gets into Arizona, the flow is already almost going zonal. However, snow amounts might suffer as the temperature never gets below freezing for this event, so as soon as the snow becomes showery, melting will occur between showers.
1247 AM EST Thu Mar 6 2025 Light snow is expected today, with most accumulation in the higher terrain where 2 to 4 inches is possible.
1101 PM EST Wed Mar 5 2025 Cooler air is continuing to filter into the region among a post- fropa airmass. Much of the area has fallen into the upper 30s, with higher elevations of the Cumberland Plateau, Southwest Virginia, and the East Tennessee mountains at or below freezing. Suspect the isolated higher amounts could generally range from 4-6 inches at the highest peaks. Light snow tonight across the higher elevations with wind chill values near zero across the high terrain of the Appalachians. Discussion: The upper-level trough axis shifts eastward this evening across our region with low clouds area-wide. Light snow is expected across the higher elevations. Most of the snowfall is expected across the higher terrain of the East Tennessee mountains along the North Carolina state line.
111 AM EST Thu Mar 6 2025 Strong low pressure will exit to the east overnight, with snow showers ending late. After a short period of high pressure late Thursday into Friday, a weak disturbance will provide a chance of light precipitation late Friday.