Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Thursday will almost repeat today, with mostly sunny skies and an outside chance of a shower or storm over the higher terrain. Discussion: In the upper levels through tomorrow, troughing will continue to shift east with ridging following close behind. NWly flow will switch out of the south meaning, more humid air and warmer temperatures will be headed our way. Overall, Thursday will be a lot like this afternoon except temperatures a couple of degrees warmer with increased humidity. Isolated showers and storms, if they occur, will again be confined to only the higher terrain Thursday afternoon and evening.
Tornadoes will also be possible due to the high amount of low-level shear, and LCLs below 1000 m.
While a slight weakening in the ridge will allow a weak cold front to slide into the Texas Panhandle tomorrow, this front unfortunately won't provide us any relief here in North and Central Texas. The upper ridge will strengthens this weekend resulting in our hottest days of this period.
Highs this afternoon will land in the low/mid-90s for most Valley communities, equating to about 2-6 deg F below mid-August climatology. A deeper longwave trough will dig behind along the 130 W meridian towards the end of the work week.
While a slight weakening in the ridge will allow a weak cold front to slide into the Texas Panhandle tomorrow, this front unfortunately won't provide us any relief here in North and Central Texas.
Following behind will be a upper-level trough giving way for a slight increase in the marine layer depth, but overall will remain to the coast and within valleys.
230 PM EDT Wed Aug 14 2024 High pressure over Michigan tonight will move into New York and Pennsylvania Thursday bringing quiet weather.
235 PM EDT Wed Aug 14 2024 High pressure will be over the area through late this week allowing for dry weather and slightly cooler temperatures. As a weak cold front approaches the Southeast this weekend, moisture and rain chances return. Overnight high pressure will continue to ridge into the area keeping dry air in place however with a short wave rotating through the area toward the base of the trough expect some cloudiness to linger overnight mainly over the southern half of the forecast area.
Over the next 48 hours, the ridge is expected to build back over the Rockies, and continue the chaud weather.
(Today and tonight) Expect hot temperatures again today as a strong upper level ridge builds over the area. (Thursday night through next Wednesday) High pressure will remain across the region through the next 7 days.
1214 PM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 (Today and tonight) Expect hot temperatures again today as a strong upper level ridge builds over the area.
A quasi-warm front has setup across northeast Kansas early this afternoon. Only far southern/western areas are currently seeing heat indicies rising to advisory levels, but as the warm front retreats to the north and southerly flow increases, temperatures, and therefore heat indicies, should quickly rise. Large hail, damaging wind and heavy rain are the main threats with storms that fire along the trough with MUCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg, bulk shear around 30 knots, DCAPE of 1000+ J/Kg and PWATS in the 2-3 inch range. Another potential area of development is the retreating warm front across northeast Kansas. A cold front will move through tonight, bringing a chance of thunderstorms and westerly wind shift.
- A drier and warmer pattern is expected to gradually develop by the end of the week into the weekend. Temperatures today will be on the cooler side with highs ranging in the low to upper 70s across the state. A weak area of high pressure looks to build into the region bringing with it drier and warmer weather for the end of the week. The weekend will see temperatures returning to the low 90s east of the Divide and mid to upper 80s west of the Divide. Precipitation chances will decrease for the weekend as high pressure from the south begins to shift northward.
(Tonight through Thursday night) The subtropical ridge continues to build over TX. The low level flow is from the southeast with high pressure centered over the Gulf. Otherwise the upper ridge will continue to strengthen.
Temperatures are on the warm side today and tomorrow with highs in the low to mid 90s.
Expect a modest northward surge of the warmer and oppressively humid air mass during the late afternoon hours, so the Heat Advisory conditions could still be realized especially in and south of the KC Metro. Multiple disturbances in the flow aloft could interact with a sfc cold front, and any convection that does develop will feed off the instability and 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear.
1205 PM EDT Wed Aug 14 2024 High pressure brings dry weather with a warming trend through Thursday. It turned out slightly cooler than forecast in northeast portions of the area early this morning, and we finally did get valley fog in and near the mountains. High pressure passing north of the area beneath northwest mid/upper-level flow continues the dry weather with low humidity this period. Central guidance highs, in the upper 80s across the lowlands, are backed up by h85 temperatures climbing to around 16C with the mixed layer up through h8.
(Rest of today through Thursday) Upper-level ridging will begin to break down today in response to an amplifying trough expanding across the eastern US and western Atlantic. Temperatures will continue to rise into the low to mid 90s across much of the region each afternoon.
Upper ridging remains dominant over the forecast area, gradually beginning to weaken as we move through Thursday into Thursday night.
For Thursday, the upper level ridge will begin strengthening over our area, so temperatures are expected to be very similar if not a degree or two warmer. (Thursday night through next Wednesday) High pressure will remain across the region through the next 7 days.
As expected, a cloud line excited along much of the Lower and Middle Keys earlier this afternoon. KBYX radar is only detecting waning showers along the Lower and Middle Keys, with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms dotting the Florida Keys marine zones. Temperatures vary widely along the island chain depending on rainfall, ranging from the mid 80s at locations with measurable rainfall, to the lower to mid 90s at the dry communities.
(This evening through Thursday) High pressure will keep northerly flow over the state.
Thursday will see a ridge amplify into northern Rockies with more of zonal flow undercutting it across the central Rockies and adjacent plains.
12z models continue to show that a low pressure system will move slowly east northeast through the area and gradually deepen. While the temperatures look a bit cooler, there continues to be enhanced chances for drier than normal.
Tomorrow, the Southwestern ridge expands eastward as the upper-level troughs progress.
335 PM EDT Wed Aug 14 2024 High pressure will begin to drift east of the area tonight, departing off the East Coast Thursday night.
1121 AM EDT Wed Aug 14 2024 High pressure brings dry weather with a warming trend through Thursday. It turned out slightly cooler than forecast in northeast portions of the area early this morning, and we finally did get valley fog in and near the mountains. High pressure passing north of the area beneath northwest mid/upper-level flow continues the dry weather with low humidity this period. Central guidance highs, in the upper 80s across the lowlands, are backed up by h85 temperatures climbing to around 16C with the mixed layer up through h8. High pressure lingers on Thursday while a developing low pressure system tracks towards the Great Lakes. Dry conditions should persist through the day, then precipitation chances seep into the CWA overnight as the system lifts a warm front north towards the area.
1207 PM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 (Today through Thursday) Key Messages: - Elevated Heat Indices for Today and Tomorrow - Mostly rain-free conditions The mid-level ridge continues to be the dominate force for the weather over Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley. Moving on to the low temperatures for tonight, those are expected to be mostly in the 70s with a few places in the 80s.
Temperatures as of 9 AM are in the low to mid 80s with dew points in the upper 70s to low 80s under mostly sunny skies. Afternoon highs will be in the low to mid 90s again today, with peak heat indices ranging from 106-110 degrees.
A cumulus field has developed in vicinity of the surface pressure trough where better low level convergence was located. Increased moisture and a short wave trough was seen approaching the area per water vapor imagery this afternoon. A very weak trough axis around 700- 500mb was noted in model guidance approaching the area on Thursday afternoon. Little to no hints of this trough were present in the upper levels of the atmosphere as indicated by increasing heights around 250mb. This trough axis will cut across the region from southwest to northeast above an increasing low level convergent field. A cold front will be approaching from the north during the daytime stalling out somewhere around the central to southern Texas Panhandle.
WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO With a shallow marine layer, the low cloud and fog coverage this morning was a little underwhelming, not getting as far inland as it did yesterday.
Outside of this activity, temperatures are forecast to be slightly warmer than today with highs in the 80s once again.
Overnight lows are expected to range from the low 70s in the eastern CWA to upper 70s in the western CWA. The persistent ridge continues to keep afternoon temps in the upper 90s to near the century mark in the western CWA.
Water vapor imagery indicates an upper ridge situated over the ArkLaTex region as an upper trough approaches the Central Plains from the west. At the surface, a warm front sits across the state and stretches down into Arkansas.
229 PM EDT Wed Aug 14 2024 Dry high pressure gradually builds in from the north through Thursday, resulting in mainly isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms in the mountains.
Outflow boundary from the overnight convection and/or a weak cold front will move further south to near the Interstate 44 corridor by late afternoon.
Mostly dry conditions are expected Thursday, except for a slight chance of thunderstorms in the higher terrain south and southeast of Tucson.
752 PM EDT Wed Aug 14 2024 High pressure will be over the area through late this week allowing for dry weather and slightly cooler temperatures. As a weak cold front approaches the Southeast this weekend, moisture and rain chances return.
639 PM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 (Tonight through Thursday night) The subtropical ridge continues to build over TX. The low level flow is from the southeast with high pressure centered over the Gulf. Otherwise the upper ridge will continue to strengthen.
539 PM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 (Tonight through Thursday night) Midlevel ridging over the region remains the dominant weather driver for the short term period, which will lead to mostly dry conditions across Deep South Texas.
Latest HRRR model predicts near-surface smoke to decrease tonight and Thursday except near the fires northeast of Boise, and showers should help further as a Pacific upper low moves inland across Oregon. The low is forecast to turn northeastward into eastern WA Thursday, then weaken to an open trough in northern Idaho Thursday night, but still produce showers throughout eastern OR and north of the Snake Basin in ID.
704 PM EDT Wed Aug 14 2024 Dry high pressure gradually builds in from the north through Thursday, resulting in mainly isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms in the mountains.
932 PM EDT Wed Aug 14 2024 Dry high pressure gradually builds in from the north through Thursday, resulting in mainly isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms in the mountains.
636 PM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 (This evening through Thursday) High pressure will keep northerly flow over the state.
- Cooler temperatures expected Thursday, followed by a warming trend through the weekend.
As a result, dwindling cloud cover from this afternoon's convection is gently rotating about the ridge axis with calm conditions almost everywhere.
while at the same time flattening the ridge of high pressure and shifting the high center southeast into Northern Louisiana/Southern Arkansas. Outflow boundary from the overnight convection and/or a weak cold front will move further south to near the Interstate 44 corridor by late afternoon.
925 PM EDT Wed Aug 14 2024 High pressure will begin to drift east of the area tonight, departing off the East Coast Thursday night.
919 PM EDT Wed Aug 14 2024 High pressure over Michigan tonight will move into New York and Pennsylvania Thursday bringing quiet weather.
745 PM EDT Wed Aug 14 2024 Dry and a bit warmer on Thursday. High pressure will continue in control of weather conditions tonight into Thursday. Comfortable temperatures with low humidity tonight should range from the upper 50s lowlands, into the lower 50s northeast mountains. Above normal temperatures are expected on Thursday, generally in the lower 90s lowlands, ranging into the lower 70s northeast mountains.
709 PM EDT Wed Aug 14 2024 High pressure will begin to drift east of the area tonight, departing off the East Coast Thursday night.
730 PM EDT Wed Aug 14 2024 (Rest of today through Thursday) Upper-level ridging will begin to break down today in response to an amplifying trough expanding across the eastern US and western Atlantic. Temperatures will continue to rise into the low to mid 90s across much of the region each afternoon.
725 PM EDT Wed Aug 14 2024 High pressure over Michigan tonight will move into New York and Pennsylvania Thursday bringing quiet weather.
It was warm to hot inland, cooler at the coast and bays today. Following behind will be a upper-level trough giving way for a slight increase in the marine layer depth, but overall will remain to the coast and within valleys.
1232 AM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 (Tonight through Thursday night) Midlevel ridging over the region remains the dominant weather driver for the short term period, which will lead to mostly dry conditions across Deep South Texas.
123 AM EDT Thu Aug 15 2024 High pressure will begin to drift east of the area tonight, departing off the East Coast Thursday night.
Redevelopment of scattered showers today and tomorrow is possible as the low occludes and cold air advects in aloft behind the boundary. As such, the next 48ish hours will likely feel pretty cloudy and dreary, with highs in the low-mid 70s expected for most.
Thursday will be dry as ridge builds over the region from the west. Outside of this activity, temperatures are forecast to be slightly warmer than today with highs in the 80s once again.
Per the SPC mesoanalysis page this is where a nearly stacked low pressure system is. This system has really slowed down from what had been seen the past few days, with this low now expected to slowly spin right over the FA all day.
High pressure will provide one more day of dry weather Thursday, as it exits the area. The southerly flow on its back side will help buoy temperatures a few degrees higher than highs Wednesday, which takes lowland highs up into the lower 90s amid a few afternoon high base cumulus. Clouds will increase later Thursday afternoon and night, as the next low pressure system approaches from the west.
435 AM EDT Thu Aug 15 2024 High pressure shifts east of the Ohio Valley today which will allow southerly flow to redevelop bringing in warmer temperatures and more humidity.
Discussion: Narrow upper ridge axis will be sliding overhead today, with sinking air over the wider region.
1248 AM EDT Thu Aug 15 2024 Dry and comfortable again today with warmer temperatures.
As of 210 AM Thursday,,, High pressure will provide one more day of dry weather Thursday, as it exits the area. The southerly flow on its back side will help buoy temperatures a few degrees higher than highs Wednesday, which takes lowland highs up into the lower 90s amid a few afternoon high base cumulus. Clouds will increase later Thursday afternoon and night, as the next low pressure system approaches from the west.
In between these lows a flattened ridge will be over the central CONUS and large mid level high underneath.
244 AM MDT Thu Aug 15 2024 - Warmer today with less coverage of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon.
Strong high pressure center continues to slowly push eastward away from Michigan and into the NW US early this morning. Complex area of low pressure continues to develop to the lee of the Rockies over the Northern and Central Plains. deepening upper level trough axis will dig into the Northern Plains. with a closed upper level low developing over Minnesota tonight as the upper trough slides into the Upper Mississippi Valley. Temps will remain warm today with afternoon highs in the low to mid 80s. Low temps tonight will cool into the lower 60s.
- Seasonably cool temperatures continue through Thursday, moderating to warmer, more seasonal temperatures this weekend. CLouds will linger for some time as the upper closed low pivots across the northern part of the region. Later on this afternoon and evening, a short wave will work its way around the base of the upper low, bringing chances for some convection.
355 AM EDT Thu Aug 15 2024 Dry and comfortable again today with warmer temperatures.
135 AM EDT Thu Aug 15 2024 (Rest of today through Thursday) Upper-level ridging will begin to break down today in response to an amplifying trough expanding across the eastern US and western Atlantic. Temperatures will continue to rise into the low to mid 90s across much of the region each afternoon.
A quasi-warm front has setup across northeast Kansas early this afternoon. Only far southern/western areas are currently seeing heat indicies rising to advisory levels, but as the warm front retreats to the north and southerly flow increases, temperatures, and therefore heat indicies, should quickly rise. Large hail, damaging wind and heavy rain are the main threats with storms that fire along the trough with MUCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg, bulk shear around 30 knots, DCAPE of 1000+ J/Kg and PWATS in the 2-3 inch range. Another potential area of development is the retreating warm front across northeast Kansas.
- Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms will develop along an approaching cold front this evening. - Once the cold front passes, mild and dry weather is on tap for the upcoming weekend. The big question continues to focus on potential severe convection along the synoptic cold front this evening.
1248 AM EDT Thu Aug 15 2024 Dry high pressure will linger over the area today resulting in continued below normal high temperatures and another round of isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms across the mountains.
(Today and tonight) Today holds one last shot for rain chances as we remain under a lingering plume of monsoonal moisture and weak troughing sandwiched between two upper highs. The surface pattern meanwhile features a trough that remains draped from eastern NM through the eastern TX Panhandle ahead of a weak cold front that will stall in our NW zones later this morning.
A ridge will build over the southwestern CONUS through the end of the week, maintaining temperatures in the low to mid 80s over the next several days.
(Today and tonight) A backdoor cold front pushed through earlier this morning and has stalled over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico.
With pronounced negative height anomalies sunken across the Pacific NW, objective analysis indicates a strong zonal jet continuing to progress through central California and the Great Basin acting to dampen subtropical ridging over the SW Conus. South of this jet core, an impressive midtropospheric subsidence inversion has expanded with a large pool of H5 temperatures -3C or warmer covering the entire Southwest.
A weak ridge axis continues to extend across South Florida and the Florida Keys. An upper level trough sprawled across the Eastern Seaboard will dip southward today, fracturing the ridge axis. A boundary associated with this trough will gradually slide southward down the Florida Peninsula.
1058 AM EDT Thu Aug 15 2024 High pressure provides one more dry day as it exits, with a hot afternoon. Outside adjustments for a slightly cooler than forecast early morning, the forecast is on track. High pressure will provide one more day of dry weather today, as it exits the area.
The environment looks relatively favorable to at least support the longevity of what we already have out there with the 12Z RAOB sounding showing ample moisture and growing instability in the lower levels. An Atlantic ridge axis stretching west across the Florida Keys will support light to gentle breezes through this afternoon, generally variable. Breezes will shift to the northwest by tonight, as a trough dips south along the Eastern Seaboard.
An upper level trough will continue to bring below normal temperatures to the inland areas through the weekend.
Afternoon highs should be a few degrees warmer than recent days (solidly in the 80s across Central PA), but low humidity levels will make it still feel comfortable. Lows will be a bit warmer in the north on Friday morning compared to this morning, but still a pleasant overnight in store. Model consensus points to a slower onset of shower activity owing to the approach of a surface warm front and height falls aloft. Highs may flirt with 90F in the Lower Susquehanna while staying in the upper 70s in the northwest mountains.
The center of the upper high continues to creep in from the west and the upper trough has now retreated back up north, allowing high pressure to expand further into our area. This boundary will help cool temperatures across the northern zones of our CWA, and highs should only reach the lower 90's. Thunderstorms are possible this afternoon ahead of the ridge axis, and coverage should be restricted to the southern and eastern Texas Panhandle. Tomorrow, short range models depict a slightly slower onset for the upper high to reach above the High Plains.
The influence of the ridge aloft will be felt as temperatures climb into the mid and upper 90s before most shower or storm activity gets going.
- Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms will develop along an approaching cold front this evening. - Once the cold front passes, mild and dry weather is on tap for the upcoming weekend. The big question continues to focus on potential severe convection along the synoptic cold front this evening. Will still need to keep an eye on Friday, as several CAMs show a broken line of storms forming along the slowly advancing cold front during peak heating. Barnes Once the synoptic cold front passes, cooler/less humid conditions will arrive this weekend. Mostly dry weather is anticipated: however, with an upper low spinning over the Great Lakes and weak waves pivoting through the region.
A warm, humid start to the day will give way for afternoon showers as a weak cold front moves south and west over the area.
458 AM MDT Thu Aug 15 2024 - Warmer today with less coverage of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon. Now will transition into a period of warmer and drier weather, But notice the modifier in the word, thank you all of my English teachers from many eons ago. Ridging will build northward over the area today and bring warmer temperatures. The ridging should help keep the morning dry, leading to a mainly late show in the later afternoon and evening. Friday looks like the driest day of the period as the ridge bulges north and pushes the deepest moisture out of the area. Temperatures will continue as warm with highs in the 90s returning the warmer spots.
626 AM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 (Today and tonight) Today holds one last shot for rain chances as we remain under a lingering plume of monsoonal moisture and weak troughing sandwiched between two upper highs. The surface pattern meanwhile features a trough that remains draped from eastern NM through the eastern TX Panhandle ahead of a weak cold front that will stall in our NW zones later this morning.