Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
(Today through Tuesday) A broad area of lower heights resides over the southeastern CONUS this morning, as the remnant low of Francine continues to spin over the Lower Mississippi River Valley and a potential tropical cyclone spins just off the South Carolina coast. By Tuesday, the remnants of Francine will become absorbed by the stronger cyclone, moving westward toward the southern Appalachians.
A ridge axis is also centered over TX which will suppress convection farther west keeping most showers and storms over LA. Monday, the moisture and weak, broad trough will drift southwest due to being driven by a developing Carolina coastal system.
Temperatures today will be in the low to mid 80s with temperatures a tad bit warmer tomorrow areawide.
Temperatures cooler than normal early in the week then expect a warming trend. Key Message(s): - Rain will spread into the region today with breezy winds Early this morning, light rain will continue to move into the Pee Dee as low pressure develops offshore. As the low continues to deepen, a plume of moisture will spread into the Carolinas. The pressure gradient will strengthen during the morning hours before the center of the low moves inland and weakens later today or tonight. With cool NE flow and rain over the area, expect daytime temperatures well below normal with highs in the low to mid 70s across the Midlands and around 80 in the CSRA.
307 AM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024 Dry weather will continue today under high pressure. Rain chances return Tuesday and continue periodically through late week with a slow moving low pressure system. KEY MESSAGES: - Dry weather continues today under high pressure ------------------------------------------------------------------- High pressure, centered across the northeastern CONUS, will maintain dry weather today as it begins to shift eastward. Upper level moisture streaming north ahead of the low will result in an increase in cirrus clouds through the day.
A broad dome of high pressure will continue to reside over the Great Lakes through the upcoming week which should keep any moisture from the Gulf of Mexico trapped well south of our area across the Tennessee Valley and Deep South. Though, slightly warmer conditions are possible on Monday and Tuesday as the aforementioned high drifts westward across lower Michigan resulting in less cirrus clouds and temperatures flirting with the upper 80s to around 90. Additionally, the unabated sun and warmer temperatures should also yield deeper diurnal mixing Monday and Tuesday creating lower afternoon dew points and humidity.
The pattern remains very active, with a western trough and eastern ridge. The 0-6km shear stays on the lower end, but could be increase a bit by 00z Tuesday. The biggest parameter that jumps up again this evening is the low level jet.
Daily highs will be in the 80s and morning lows in the upper 50s and 60s as high pressure reigns.
1254 AM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024 High pressure will remain over the region through the middle of the week before a weak low pressure moves up the East Coast and potentially impacts portions of the area. Expect temperatures to fall into the mid to upper 50s tonight, but a few spots along the lakeshore may stay in the slightly warmer lower 60s. An upper level ridge of high pressure over the eastern Great Lakes and Northeast CONUS is dominating our weather pattern. A low pressure system south of the ridge of high pressure will track westward through the Mid- Atlantic region by Monday night. High temperatures in the afternoon will be in the lower to mid 80s.
Analysis of the overall weather pattern across the country has changed very little, with upper level ridging remaining over portions of central into the northeastern CONUS, while further west over California, a trough continues to deepen, which will gradually shift north/northeast over the next several days and bring multiple chances for rainfall.
312 AM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024 - Dry and Warm Weather Continues This Week Upper level ridging will continue to dominate the wx pattern bringing a continuation of dry and warm wx through the upcoming week with high temps in the 80s daily. An overall medium range guidance consensus suggests that any showers tied to the remnants of whatever becomes of potential tropical cyclone eight will stay southeast of our area as ridging continues to dominate the pattern here.
Eventually, the remnants push out of the area as high pressure builds back into the state Tuesday.
337 AM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024 High pressure will build across the region through the early week.
306 AM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024 High pressure brings fair and mild weather to the region through Tuesday.
Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight, off the South Carolina coastline, is anticipated to progress westward and inland through today. Highs will be cooler, in the low to mid 70s for most.
258 AM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024 High pressure will continue fair weather and above normal day time temperatures through mid week.
1228 AM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024 (Tonight through Monday night) Key Message: - Low chance of flash flooding over the Brush Country through tonight An elongated low located over eastern Mexico around the 700mb level from Pacific Post-Tropical Cyclone Ilena will continue to usher in mid-level moisture and funnel southeasterly Gulf moisture through tonight over portions of South Texas. The aforementioned low over Mexico will wash out and get replaced by a mid-level ridge Monday night, diminishing rain chances as PWATs fall below 2.
Lows are on track to drop into the low/mid 70s. Swell from low pressure off the South Carolina coast will produce poor to hazardous boating conditions across the coastal waters with sea building up to 6-8 feet.
148 AM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024 High pressure will remain over the region through the middle of the week before a weak low pressure moves up the East Coast and potentially impacts portions of the area. Expect temperatures to fall into the mid to upper 50s tonight, but a few spots along the lakeshore may stay in the slightly warmer lower 60s. An upper level ridge of high pressure over the eastern Great Lakes and Northeast CONUS is dominating our weather pattern. A low pressure system south of the ridge of high pressure will track westward through the Mid- Atlantic region by Monday night. High temperatures in the afternoon will be in the lower to mid 80s.
Southerly flow aloft will allow for increasing moisture across western Montana and north central Idaho ahead of a cut off area of low pressure currently located over central California.
146 AM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024 High pressure centered northeast of the area will weaken. On Tuesday morning, an upper low will be somewhere southeast of the Ohio Valley, gradually moving into the area and bringing moisture to the region. The forecast trend for the ILN CWA has continued to be for the low to move further into the area, and more quickly than in previous forecast cycles.
Synopsis: Surface analysis this morning showed strong high pressure in place east of New England. Aloft, the upper pattern remained rather unchained, with a deep trough in place over the western CONUS and the large stacked high in place over the northeast. Models suggest the surface ridging to the north to drift southward today and tonight.
Upper ridging begins to build back in for Tuesday with clearing skies and warming temperatures.
A pretty quiet evening is expected under mostly clear skies, though enhanced moisture on the northwest side of potential tropical cyclone 8 will lead to clouds along the northeastern Tennessee mountains. Discussion: Currently temperatures have climbed into the 80's across much of the eastern Tennessee Valley as we sit under a strong ridge aloft and generally easterly flow near the surface.
Late night may bring some patchy fog as most areas dip to the lower 60s.
(Today through Tuesday Night) A non-tropical low off the Southeastern coastline is progged to pull in the discarded remnants of Francine currently over the Lower Mississippi Valley. This should allow the upper ridge over Texas shift eastward. In spite of the ridge's greater influence, northerly low-level flow and cooler 850mb temperatures should bring slighter cooler highs.
(Today through Tuesday afternoon) WV imagery this morning shows an upper trough making landfall on the west coast just north of the Bay Area. This will nudge the ridge over West Texas and Southeast New Mexico to the east today, developing southwest flow aloft over the region. This, in addition to increasing high cloud ahead of the west coast trough, will keep overnight lows 8-10 F above normal.
1251 AM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024 Lingering remnant upper low continues to linger across the Mid South region, with continued high moisture & light flow around the upper low. Low pressure is still over the region keeping rain and clouds over the area. A few thunderstorms cannot be ruled out this evening as this low continues to hang out over the region. Rain and shower chances still remain elevated on Monday as this low weakens Monday.
remains under a blocking pattern aloft featuring high pressure over the NE U. and low pressure over the SE U. At the surface, a weak stationary frontal boundary extends across the central to southern half of the peninsula from a developing area of low pressure off the Carolinas coast, while ridging wedges its way south into the peninsula behind it. Daytime heating will lift/burn off the low clouds by late morning, however high cloudiness is likely to continue streaming east across the area through the day leading to mostly cloudy skies. PoPs and dew points look to decrease slightly as a result, before guidance suggests E-NE flow sets up over the state during the weekend between surface ridging extending southward into the SE U. PW's are still on the lower end resulting in lower shower chances.
540 AM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024 Dry weather will continue today under high pressure. Rain chances return Tuesday and continue periodically through late week with a slow moving low pressure system. KEY MESSAGES: - Dry weather continues today under high pressure ------------------------------------------------------------------- For the early morning update, made adjustments to the hourly temperatures based on the latest observations. Otherwise, high pressure, centered across the northeastern CONUS, will maintain dry weather today as it begins to shift eastward. Upper level moisture streaming north ahead of the low will result in an increase in cirrus clouds through the day.
604 AM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024 (Today) Rain and thunderstorm chances will come to an end today as the Tennessee Valley is wedged between what once was Francine and a potential tropical cyclone just off the South Carolina Coast. Afternoon highs will range from the low to mid 80s over NW AL where the clouds will be slower to clear, to mid to upper 80s east.
(Today) Early this morning a mid/upper level area of low pressure was centered over Southeast Arkansas. Wrapping around the low was an area of higher vorticity. which combined with moisture also wrapping around the low were creating scattered rain showers across Northern/Eastern Arkansas. This vort max along with the rain showers are expected to spread into Western Arkansas and far Eastern Oklahoma today as they continue to wrap around the low. while the low itself sags southward. The vort max is forecast to weaken and exit the region by evening as the western portion of the area of low pressure weakens and moves off to the southeast. afternoon temperatures look to be slightly cooler with 70s to lower 80s in Northwest Arkansas and mid 80s to around 90 degrees for much of Eastern Oklahoma.
Concerning rainfall: A persistent rex block type weather pattern, anchored by a strong high centered over the Great Lakes/New England areas and a low that has persisted over the Lower MS Valley region, continues in the near term. The latest guidance indicate that the low will fill and weaken as a potential tropical cyclone near the South Atlantic coast takes over as the primary low circulation in the rex block pattern.
617 AM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024 (Today through Tuesday Night) A non-tropical low off the Southeastern coastline is progged to pull in the discarded remnants of Francine currently over the Lower Mississippi Valley. This should allow the upper ridge over Texas shift eastward. In spite of the ridge's greater influence, northerly low-level flow and cooler 850mb temperatures should bring slighter cooler highs.
Breezes will remain light and periodically variable while the subtropical ridge remains weak, in part thanks to the development and movement northwest into the Carolina coastline of Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight. This low pressure system will continue to modify the surrounding environment through shifting the flow of moisture, and any lingering dry air will start to be washed out as air with PWATs in excess of 2. Ponding on the typically favored roadways will peak at the times of the morning higher high tide in the Lower and Middle Keys, with little tidal cycle relief in the Upper Keys.
647 AM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024 High pressure centered northeast of the area will weaken. Low pressure will move northwest from the Atlantic coast into the central Appalachians before weakening by mid week.
Longwave troughing draped over the Southeast will lead to better chances for precip over the next couple of days. As the trough deepens, the southwesterly flow aloft will help to pull more moisture into the region with the majority of ensemble members favoring somewhere between 2.
937 AM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024 High pressure brings fair and mild weather to the region through Tuesday.
646 AM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024 High pressure will continue fair weather and above normal day time temperatures through mid week.
619 AM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024 (Today and tonight) A deepening area of low pressure off the Carolina Coast has contributed to northeasterly surface winds across the area and will continue to do so today. Expect daytime highs generally in the low to mid 80s with overnight lows ranging from the mid 60s across the northern counties to the low 70s farther south.
(Today through Tuesday) Generally speaking, upper level troughing is in place over the southeastern US. It's a split between decaying remnants of Francine over MS and Potential Tropical Cyclone 8 just off the SC coast. Although the CWA isn't outlooked by SPC for any severe wx, model soundings indicate modest instability and cooler mid/upper level temps than yesterday.
634 AM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024 High pressure brings fair and mild weather to the region through Tuesday.
A trough sits over northern California and will gradually rotate it's way through the Great Basin today. While upper-level dynamics will increase with the trough, the anticipated moisture surge has been fairly underwhelming, with moisture largely limited to the eastern portions of the state. Gusty winds of 35-45 kts look likely across much of the higher terrain, especially where deeper mixing occurs.
616 AM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024 (Today) Early this morning a mid/upper level area of low pressure was centered over Southeast Arkansas. Wrapping around the low was an area of higher vorticity. which combined with moisture also wrapping around the low were creating scattered rain showers across Northern/Eastern Arkansas. This vort max along with the rain showers are expected to spread into Western Arkansas and far Eastern Oklahoma today as they continue to wrap around the low. while the low itself sags southward. The vort max is forecast to weaken and exit the region by evening as the western portion of the area of low pressure weakens and moves off to the southeast. afternoon temperatures look to be slightly cooler with 70s to lower 80s in Northwest Arkansas and mid 80s to around 90 degrees for much of Eastern Oklahoma.
724 AM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024 - Dry and Warm Weather Continues This Week Upper level ridging will continue to dominate the wx pattern bringing a continuation of dry and warm wx through the upcoming week with high temps in the 80s daily. An overall medium range guidance consensus suggests that any showers tied to the remnants of whatever becomes of potential tropical cyclone eight will stay southeast of our area as ridging continues to dominate the pattern here.
610 AM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024 (Today and tonight) Another warm day in store will upper ridging aloft.
A series of low pressure systems remain on tap this week bringing widespread showers and thunderstorms, and much cooler temperatures. Tonight this activity will trend even more widespread, culminating Tuesday in scattered to widespread shower activity with a few embedded thunderstorms regionwide, and much cooler high temps only reaching the upper 50s to low 60s.
As a deep low pressure center circulated over the California coast this morning, modestly diffluent flow was located downstream atop a low to mid moisture level plume over southeastern Arizona. At 09Z a moisture gradient was evident on the GOES precipitable water product over far western Pima county, which should gradually slide east today with the eastward progression of the upper level low, before fully moving through the area late tonight. While overall moisture will continue to be on the decrease tonight, some additional convection will be possible overnight with the increasing influence of the approaching trough.
435 AM MDT Mon Sep 16 2024 - Very warm through Tuesday with elevated fire weather conditions - Strong storm system late Tuesday/Tuesday evening brings marginal/slight risk of severe weather - Pattern change end of the week with cooler weather likely 08z surface analysis had low over southeast MT with meso-low over K2WX per KUDX radar loop. Bigger picture has upper low over northern CA, which is the main concern for the short term. Tuesday, upper low ejects into eastern MT with pronounced synoptic forcing ahead of it per negative tilt. Buoyancy not that impressive ahead of cold front, but synoptic forcing should support high-based thunderstorms racing across WY into western SD.
620 AM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024 (Today through Tuesday) As ridging aloft gradually builds over the area, most of the region will remain dry and warm today and Tuesday. The aforementioned ridging aloft will work against any more coverage than that. Given the low confidence and coverage we will only indicate a silent 10 pop.
Cloud shield from the southeastern low pressure system was well southeast of central Indiana while additional cloud cover was west of the area, across west central Illinois. Synopsis: Surface analysis this morning showed strong high pressure in place east of New England. Aloft, the upper pattern remained rather unchained, with a deep trough in place over the western CONUS and the large stacked high in place over the northeast. Models suggest the surface ridging to the north to drift southward today and tonight.
959 AM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024 High pressure centered northeast of the area will weaken. Low pressure will move northwest from the Atlantic coast into the central Appalachians before weakening by mid week.
630 AM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024 (Today through Tuesday) A broad area of lower heights resides over the southeastern CONUS this morning, as the remnant low of Francine continues to spin over the Lower Mississippi River Valley and a potential tropical cyclone spins just off the South Carolina coast. By Tuesday, the remnants of Francine will become absorbed by the stronger cyclone, moving westward toward the southern Appalachians.
818 AM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024 Dry weather will continue today under high pressure. Rain chances return Tuesday and continue periodically through late week with a slow moving low pressure system. KEY MESSAGES: - Dry weather continues today under high pressure ------------------------------------------------------------------- For the early morning update, made adjustments to the hourly temperatures based on the latest observations. Otherwise, high pressure, centered across the northeastern CONUS, will maintain dry weather today as it begins to shift eastward. Upper level moisture streaming north ahead of the low will result in an increase in cirrus clouds through the day.
401 AM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024 (Today through Tuesday afternoon) WV imagery this morning shows an upper trough making landfall on the west coast just north of the Bay Area. This will nudge the ridge over West Texas and Southeast New Mexico to the east today, developing southwest flow aloft over the region. This, in addition to increasing high cloud ahead of the west coast trough, will keep overnight lows 8-10 F above normal.
Another warm day tomorrow with highs in the lower 90s (near to slightly above normal).
148 PM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024 (Today and tonight) A deepening area of low pressure off the Carolina Coast has contributed to northeasterly surface winds across the area and will continue to do so today. Expect daytime highs generally in the low to mid 80s with overnight lows ranging from the mid 60s across the northern counties to the low 70s farther south.
233 PM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024 High pressure will continue to bring dry and mild weather through Tuesday.
123 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024 (Today through Tuesday afternoon) WV imagery this morning shows an upper trough making landfall on the west coast just north of the Bay Area. This will nudge the ridge over West Texas and Southeast New Mexico to the east today, developing southwest flow aloft over the region. This, in addition to increasing high cloud ahead of the west coast trough, will keep overnight lows 8-10 F above normal.
After that, expect dry air and cool air advection as a broad mean trough position remains in place across the west. That will keep our temperatures below average the remainder of the week, with some crispness in the early morning hours the second half of the week as we see overnight lows in the lower to middle 60s across the lower deserts, with 50s in cooler eastern valley locations.
408 PM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024 Heavy rainfall and gusty winds will remain a threat into tonight as the low continues inland, with improving conditions into early Tuesday due to drier air building in. A weak cold front will bring more seasonable temperatures beginning towards the end of the work week. Low pressure will move inland tonight and showers and a few storms will gradually diminish from east to west overnight. The remaining trough axis will pass back overhead Wed with enough lingering moisture to keep rain/thunder chances in the forecast through the end of the period. Lows in the mid to upper 60s with highs in the low to mid 80s. Mix of MVFR and IFR across the region this afternoon will persist into the evening as Potential Tropical Cyclone 8 lingers in the region.
230 PM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024 - Dry and Warm Weather Continues This Week Upper level ridging will continue to dominate the wx pattern bringing a continuation of dry and warm wx through the upcoming week with high temps in the 80s daily. An overall medium range guidance consensus suggests that any showers tied to the remnants of whatever becomes of potential tropical cyclone eight will stay southeast of our area as ridging continues to dominate the pattern here.
140 PM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024 High pressure brings fair and mild weather to the region through Tuesday.
(Through tonight ) Still some lingering impact from "Francine" as the remnant low continues to meander across the lower MS valley, all the while weakening. A prolonged blocking pattern featuring an expanding ridge over the central states results in rising temperatures and some increase in in humidity as well. Current expectation remains that the upper trough currently moving through the Great Basin will lift off to the northeast. A second trough is then forecast to essentially replace the first one in the southwest, in effect re-enforcing the strong ridge over the Southern Plains. BY the weekend the later trough should being to make its move, however the trends do not favor a significant impact on our weather at this time.