Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
644 PM CDT Tue Jun 10 2025 (This evening through Wednesday night) Starting with the upper levels, a north/south trough axis extends from the Great Lakes to the Florida Panhandle and ridge centered over the Desert Southwest encompasses the rest of the country. As you'd expect this time of year, frontal boundary associated with the trough has stalled along the northern Gulf Coast.
703 PM CDT Tue Jun 10 2025 (Tonight through Wednesday night) Mid-level troughing and a cut-off low in central and northern Texas will maintain southwesterly flow and reduce subsidence aloft across deep south Texas and the Rio Grande Valley through the short term, thus increasing probabilities for the development of showers and thunderstorms.
830 PM EDT Tue Jun 10 2025 A cold front will stall over the area Wednesday. High pressure will prevail late week into the weekend. As an upper-lvl ridge builds in over the region, a weak front will park itself nearby across the Southeast before largely washing out. Simultaneously, an upper-lvl trough overhead will continue to lift northeastward.
- Cooler and wetter conditions anticipated through the end of the work week, with heavy rainfall and strong thunderstorms possible at times. Weak remnant upper low still looks to remain however, and with a virtually uncapped air mass in place, CAMs show more redevelopment across the area later this afternoon and evening. Still will carry chance POPs across the western portions of the area, with more likely POPs this afternoon/evening across the Heartland and Hill Country on the southeast side of the upper low.
Through the day, mid level troughing will continue to dampen and push off the Atlantic coast. This will allow for continued WAA from the SW in the low levels and at the surface. Thus, temps are forecast to be a degree or two warmer than yesterday with afternoon highs tapping out in the high 80s and perhaps a few urban locations making a run at 90.
Lows tonight are expected to be in the low 70s for most of the forecast area.
1211 AM EDT Wed Jun 11 2025 - Dry conditions persist and temperatures trend warmer into tonight and Wednesday.
Issued by National Weather Service Wichita KS 1209 AM CDT Wed Jun 11 2025 - Warm and dry conditions today, with afternoon highs in the low to mid 90s.
Out to the west, the ridge slowly begins to creep back this direction. Continued upslope flow supports more thunderstorm chances in the higher terrain of West Texas and Southeast New Mexico (20- 40%).
- Cooler but still warm and mountain thunderstorms mid to late this week.
Areas away from the coast will remain much warmer than normal through the week.
200 AM EDT Wed Jun 11 2025 High pressure will result in quiet weather with lower humidity through Thursday.
Convection has created a gust front with winds 45 to 55 mph moving east through the Lower Treasure Valley and Ada County as to 8:45 PM MDT. On Wednesday a Pacific short wave trough will move inland and develop numerous showers and afternoon thunderstorms, some with hail, especially in the Idaho mountains north of the Snake Basin. Highs Wednesday should be 5-10 degrees cooler than today. Lows Wednesday night will be cooler than tonight and highs Thursday should be about the same as on Wednesday.
135 AM EDT Wed Jun 11 2025 A cold front will stall over the area Wednesday. High pressure will prevail late week into the weekend. Fog is not a significant concern and temperatures are forecast to drop into the low 70s closer to sunrise. As an upper-lvl ridge builds in over the region, a weak front will park itself nearby across the Southeast before largely washing out. Simultaneously, an upper-lvl trough overhead will continue to lift northeastward.
1225 AM CDT Wed Jun 11 2025 (Tonight through Thursday night) Low pressure begins to settle into North Texas and the Southern Plains into Thursday before lifting northeast.
Currently a cold front is sweeping east through the state, located near the James River Valley. With the clockwise flow around the high, the smoke is lined up to stream into the state. Wednesday will also be cooler in the 70s as the thermal ridge get pushed east.
Temperatures will be a few degrees cooler than yesterday, with highs in the 70s to middle 80s.
(Rest of tonight and Wednesday) Tonight will feature relatively cool and dry conditions for early to mid June as high pressure sits just to our north and we remain in northwest flow between an upper trough to our east and ridging over the central Plains. No major changes were needed to the overnight forecast as lows are still expected to be in the low to mid 60s with no fog mentioned as of now due to larger dewpoint depressions. This will allow H85 temps to warm slightly more as an upper low lifts through central TX and a warm front lifts in tandem. Although the air will be on the drier side with dewpoints in the lower 60s, temps near the 90 degree mark will pose a risk for heat related illness for those sensitive to the heat and without proper hydration/shading.
345 AM EDT Wed Jun 11 2025 High pressure remains intact through the next few days, keeping the forecast dry through at least Thursday.
" Temperatures should actually fairly seasonable - highs around 90 and lows in the lower 70s. The upper-level weather pattern will feature troughing generally over our region, as a weakness persists beneath ridge centers over the Desert Southwest and off the Southeast U.
120 AM EDT Wed Jun 11 2025 High pressure builds in today into Thursday. Key Message: 1) High pressure provides dry weather through tonight. At the surface, this boundary starts to track way today with high pressure working in which is going to keep the majority of the area dry with fair weather cumulus scattered around. High pressure keeps us dry tonight with mostly clear skies, with seasonable lows in the mid to upper 50s mountains to lower to mid 60s piedmont.
Issued by National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 146 AM EDT Wed Jun 11 2025 High pressure brings dry weather Wednesday through Thursday, with a warming trend.
Broad area of high pressure across the Central and Southern Plains is expected to shift east tonight leading to the development of a low level jet after midnight. Convective cluster across eastern South Dakota is expected to largely remain along and north of a cold front that is should to stall prior to reaching I-80.
328 AM EDT Wed Jun 11 2025 High pressure builds in today into Thursday. Key Message: 1) High pressure provides dry weather through tonight. At the surface, this boundary starts to track way today with high pressure working in which is going to keep the majority of the area dry with fair weather cumulus scattered around. High pressure keeps us dry tonight with mostly clear skies, with seasonable lows in the mid to upper 50s mountains to lower to mid 60s piedmont.
946 PM MDT Tue Jun 10 2025 -Unsettled the remainder of this week with near daily chances for showers and storms -Seasonal temps this week, coolest Thursday -Smoke/haze possible at times through the period Unsettled westerly flow will develop this week as a series of impulses eject out of the NE Pac upper low. Frontal boundary will then shift back southwest Thur, with much cooler conds expected most places, esp over NW SD where temps will struggle out of the 60s for highs. This could potentially support rounds of severe weather as the flow shifts to more WSW as impulses eject out of the mean eastern Pac upper trough.
Wednesday and Thursday, as a weak midlevel trough ejects onto the southern plains, models show a very minor cooling trend, as 850 mb temperatures are trimmed 1-2C each day, and heights lower some with the weak closed low just to the southeast of SW KS. As such, moisture in the boundary layer will be maintained, with dewpoints in the lower to mid 60s especially by Thursday.
The axis of a stronger ridge is now setting up over the Rockies, with several disorganized vort-maxes continuing to rotate over the top of the feature. A weak back door cool front will drift into the High Plains overnight and bring weak upslope winds, higher dewpoints, and more cloud cover to start our Wednesday. Expect highs to be a few degrees cooler than today as a result. Expect the first round of widely scattered showers and thunderstorms to initiate over the higher terrain in the early afternoon hours (or perhaps even late morning) and drift eastward through the afternoon. Forcing looks a little weaker on Thursday, but still present with another weak vort-max riding over the top of the upper level ridge.
Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be limited to far eastern Arizona on Wednesday as high pressure builds. Warmer and drier conditions return for the rest of the week with southwesterly afternoon breezes.
Today-Tonight: Ridging aloft will persist over the Tri-State area. when and where forecast soundings indicate marginal high-based diurnal destabilization (~500-1000 J/kg mlcape) in the presence of little or no convective inhibition and weak low-level convergence within a modest, baggy thermal trough. Further east, beneath the lingering upper level ridge over the Central Plains. and increasingly subsident environment (with southern and eastern extent into KS) on the NW fringe of the cut-off low over the Southern Plains.
This shift will be driven by the combination of a closed upper level low lifting across the ArkLaTex region and a ridge centered off the east coast of Florida.
426 AM EDT Wed Jun 11 2025 High pressure will persist across the region into Thursday.
For tonight, the coverage of storms will wane after sunset with overnight lows generally in the low to mid 70s.
1145 PM CDT Tue Jun 10 2025 (This evening through Wednesday night) Starting with the upper levels, a north/south trough axis extends from the Great Lakes to the Florida Panhandle and ridge centered over the Desert Southwest encompasses the rest of the country. As you'd expect this time of year, frontal boundary associated with the trough has stalled along the northern Gulf Coast.
358 AM EDT Wed Jun 11 2025 High pressure builds in today into Thursday. Key Message: 1) High pressure provides dry weather through tonight. At the surface, this boundary starts to track way today with high pressure working in which is going to keep the majority of the area dry with fair weather cumulus scattered around. High pressure keeps us dry tonight with mostly clear skies, with seasonable lows in the mid to upper 50s mountains to lower to mid 60s piedmont.
Issued by National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 1140 PM EDT Tue Jun 10 2025 Dry weather returns Wednesday with high pressure.
1249 AM EDT Wed Jun 11 2025 High pressure will result in quiet weather with lower humidity through Thursday.
1252 AM EDT Wed Jun 11 2025 High pressure remains intact through the majority of the work week, keeping the forecast dry.
This appears to be overdone given current surface obs showing a somewhat divergent flow, albeit light, and satellite showing the center of the upper low being well to our south where the best lift is located. Precip chances will only diminish further this evening as the upper low moves off to our east with weak northerly upper flow taking its place.
The synoptic flow on Thu and Fri will mostly be defined by a broad, low amplitude trough over much of eastern Canada. a somewhat dampened ridge over the Southeast US and a cutoff low in the Southern Plains. A weak upper wave and surface inverted trough in the Upper Midwest will get sheared off and try to move to the east across the southern Great Lakes into the Northeast late Thursday and Thu night. There is expected to be a dividing line between cooler, more stable air, with high shear to the north. Thursday night, high pressure at the surface will build in from the northwest and lightly settle in over the region. Temperatures will cool off into the lower 50s Thu night as skies clear off and winds go calm.
Northwest flow was noted across the central and northern plains as an upper trough approached the northern CA coast. Surface obs showed weak surface ridging weakening over the central plains with surface pressure falling along the lee of the central Rockies. Increased cloud cover and cooler mid level temps with the upper disturbance is expected to keep highs on Thursday a few degrees cooler in the 80s.
- Cooler and wetter conditions anticipated through the end of the work week, with heavy rainfall and strong thunderstorms possible at times. CAMs show a line of thunderstorms developing late this evening across the Big Bend and Permian Basin on the leading edge of the upper low and the moving across west central Texas overnight. As the upper-level low deepens, cooler air should move in aloft and allow for some scattered thunderstorms to develop by late morning through early afternoon.
Otherwise, high pressure is overhead and will be through most of the short term period.
High pressure will prevail late week into the weekend. Today: Aloft, the pattern will transition as the main belt of westerlies retreats to the north and ridging builds in turning the flow more anticyclonic with time. Lows are forecast to fall into the low 70s. Atlantic high pressure will be the dominant surface feature through the period with a stalled front over the region expected to dissipate on Thursday. Lows will be in the low to mid 70s, except upper 70s at the beaches.
112 AM EDT Wed Jun 11 2025 High pressure over the area through tonight will result in mostly sunny skies and relatively low humidity.
An upper level trough is currently centered over eastern Ontario, with broad troughing extending across much of the eastern CONUS.
Dry conditions today and much of Thursday with high pressure centered over KY expanding northward into our CWA and fairly zonal/slightly ridged flow aloft.
While we will be able to build in some decent instability with MLCAPE values on the order of 1-2k J/kg, thermal profiles show a cap in the lower levels that will inhibit convective development. Buoyancy in on the low side and bulk shear is weak.
144 AM EDT Wed Jun 11 2025 Surface ridging and dry airmass is producing a nice evening across the Tennessee valley and southern Appalachians. Discussion: Upper trough will continue to eject north and east tonight into Wednesday.
High pressure at the surface and aloft will translate to dry weather conditions across the region today and much of Thursday.
- Cooler late this week as daily afternoon showers and thunderstorms continue.
Early this morning, water vapor satellite imagery showed a low amplitude upper low across west TX. A broad upper trough was located across the Hudson Bay region of Canada and extended southward across the Great Lakes into the OH River Valley. Today and Tonight: The southern stream upper low across west TX will drift east and amplify across north TX by 12Z THU.
An upper trough is over the eastern half of the country. An upper low will be over Texas and Oklahoma on Wednesday. Mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies will be present Wednesday with temperatures warming into the low to mid 90s. Lower heights are expected over south central and central Nebraska and north central Kansas on Thursday as the upper low moves over Kansas. This will result in slightly cooler temperatures with highs in the mid 80s to low 90s.
- Dry conditions with temperatures remaining 3 to 5 degrees above average across the lower deserts through the rest of this week - A strengthening ridge of high pressure over the Desert Southwest this weekend will promote the hottest temperatures of the year thus far.
Discussion: In the upper levels, nearly zonal flow is present today as a slight ridge builds into the Southeast tonight. At the surface, high pressure is over the region as the Bermuda-Azores high extends into the Southeast.
Upper level troughing to the north weakens and lifts northeastward over New England by this evening. This will allow for upper ridging south of Florida to lift northward with the ridge axis centered through central Florida. On the surface, high pressure located near Bermuda ridges west-southwestward across north-central Florida and into the northeastern gulf.
Weak ridging has taken hold and promises to bring us another beautiful day. Winds are very light, but southerly, slowly advecting in some warmer and more moist air. Since the low is progged to pass directly over us, we get to be influenced by it for several days in a row.
347 AM EDT Wed Jun 11 2025 High pressure will result in quiet weather with lower humidity through Thursday.
(Tonight through Thursday night) Low pressure begins to settle into North Texas and the Southern Plains into Thursday before lifting northeast.
332 AM CDT Wed Jun 11 2025 - Highs in the low to mid 90s today with a HeatRisk level of Moderate (level 2 out of 4). We're starting another day with clear skies and light winds this morning as a broad, weak upper-level ridge is positioned over the Central Plains. This will bring high temperatures this afternoon into the low-to-mid 90s.
The next round, whenever it begins will probably have more capability to add some pockets of large hail threats as new and discrete cells closer to the upper low dynamics and with a lower PWat environment.
801 AM EDT Wed Jun 11 2025 High pressure will result in quiet weather with lower humidity through Thursday.
736 AM EDT Wed Jun 11 2025 * Dry and trending warmer with somewhat hazy conditions from Canadian wildfires smoke drifting southeast across the region.
Lows will range from the lower to mid 70s over the area tonight.
Unsettled, cool conditions will persist over Western Washington into Sunday as an upper level trough remains over the region.
The highest rainfall totals occurred near Windemere where a handful of rain gages reported 4-5 inches. High pressure will build to the north of Florida into the overnight.
1238 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 A couple of lingering isolated showers and storms will be possible later this evening as global guidance continues to highlight a disturbance in the southern Gulf beneath the ridge. With skies clearing and high boundary layer moisture, lows will only fall into the low to mid 70s across our CWA. Hot conditions will continue heading into Sunday as the ridge remains in place over the southeast CONUS. The ridge will begin to shift eastward by Sunday afternoon allowing for S/SE low-level flow to draw tropical moisture into the area.
We expect the coldest part of the trough to rotate south over our region later today, and eventually a piece of energy in the middle atmosphere is expected to close off and rotate over Lemhi County, ID, further lowering snow levels to the north and west of its track. Overnight conditions get progressively cooler and with snow levels lowering across the region down to about 5000 feet. There is increasing confidence of a mid-level low pressure system closing off and developing a deformation zone during the late night hours.
High pressure begins to shift east today with southerly return flow.
341 AM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024 A strong upper level ridge will remain in place through this week, resulting in near-record heat across the region.
19z/2pm temperatures are in the middle to upper 80s: however, dewpoints have diurnally mixed into the lower to middle 50s. Lows tonight will range from the lower 60s near the Indiana border to the upper 60s to around 70 degrees in the Illinois River Valley where cloud cover will be more prevalent. As the wave lifts into the Great Lakes, boundary layer winds will veer to the SW and increase behind a departing warm front. This will bring hotter and more humid air into the region, pushing afternoon highs into the lower to middle 90s.
228 AM MDT Sun Jun 16 2024 - Cold front passing through early this morning, with strong northwest winds behind the front. Current surface analysis shows cold frontal boundary passing through the forecast area early this morning. Strong pressure rises behind the cold front will allow for gusty northwest winds for a brief time this morning, with gusts 50 to 65 mph possible over much of the western SD plains area. Temperatures will be much cooler behind the cold front today, with highs ranging from the upper 60s over the Black Hills, to around 80 in south central SD. An even cooler day is expected for Monday, with low level northeasterly flow over the region.
(Today through Monday afternoon) WV imagery shows the exiting upper trough approaching the MS Valley this morning, leaving West Texas and Southeast New Mexico to the whims of the ridge. As such, thicknesses are forecast to jump today as the ridge strengthens in the trough's wake, adding ~ 3 F or so onto yesterday's highs.
1155 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024 (This evening through Sunday night) An upper level short wave trough is moving away from the Panhandles into central Kansas. Some isolated thunderstorms may try to make a run at the northwest CWA tonight in association with another short wave trough, so have mentioned some low chances there.
While moisture will remain abundant with dewpoints in the low-to-mid 60s and PWATs even slightly higher than yesterday, there is no distinct upper trough or LLJ to provide much in the way of forcing.
352 AM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024 High pressure over the region will continue dry and warm conditions through the rest of the weekend. High pressure over the area will keep conditions warm and mostly dry. Sunday will feature mostly clear to partly cloudy skies and high temperatures in the high 70s to low 80s. Things heat up for Monday, with temperatures increasing into the high 80s to low 90s, with potential for afternoon thunderstorms for Central NY west of I-81.
In the upper levels, a ridge of high pressure sliding into the southeastern US today will hold in place through the first half of the week as it gradually amplifies, bringing in drier air aloft across the forecast area.
Mid to upper level ridging will become positioned overhead while a lingering weak disturbance looks to continue to advance northwest with time on Sunday. High temperatures will range from the lower 90s in the higher elevations east to the mid to upper 90s elsewhere.
This will make for warmer temperatures tonight, with lows in the low to mid 70s. In addition to the warmer temps, can't rule out a few clouds streaming into the region overnight too. Despite the low wind speeds, weak warm air advection and subsidence from a departing upper-level ridge have allow the warming trend to continue. Some of the model guidance also suggests a weak disturbance will also move across the region as it travels around the western periphery of the departing ridge. Peak heat index values may climb into the lower 100s across much of Louisiana and portions of Deep East Texas where humidity levels will be the highest.
Due to the proximity of high pressure, winds will be light and variable. Low temperatures each day should be in the lower to mid 70s.
(Today) A weak upper level trough is moving through the area, but the lower atmosphere is generally too stable and dry to promote a risk of more than a few isolated showers or storms across the area. High temperatures will be about the same as yesterday, mostly in the lower 90s with continued humid conditions. There will be about a 10% chance of a pop up storm across the higher terrain of southeast OK and northwest AR, so any storms that do occur will be few and far between.
1013 PM MDT Sat Jun 15 2024 KEY MESSAGES: - Pattern change starts today as a cold front brings showers and thunderstorms with eastern zones seeing the greatest risk of a mixed severe hail/wind threat.
Also on Sunday the mid-level flow should be just about parallel to the mountains, so keeping the higher PoPs there as well.
(Today through Monday) An upper ridge will continue shifting eastward across the southeastern United States today. Southeasterly flow will be in place over Alabama around the southwestern periphery of the ridge. Highs this afternoon should rival yesterday, although likely a degree or two cooler this afternoon. After another night of lows in the low to mid 70s, highs Monday will reach only to low to mid 90s.