Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
The cold front (if you want to call it cold) is moving through western Kansas and the Oklahoma/Texas panhandles now and will move through the area through the day. It will bring lower dewpoint and northwest winds, but not cooler weather. In fact with the sunny skies, lower humidity and downslope component to winds, most areas will see warmer temperatures today than yesterday. But this airmass will allow for a pleasant, cooler night tonight.
730 AM EDT Sun May 26 2024 (Today through Monday) Models show mid-level ridging stretching its axis from the GOMEX and into the SE CONUS, which gradually slides southward as a trough deepens further north. With the ridge axis moving over the peninsula, subsidence and overall stability will increase. Sfc winds will become generally light with the ridge above the area, which combined with the lack of cloud cover will result in temperatures hitting the mid 90s today, and mid-upper 90s on Monday afternoon across much of South FL.
538 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024 (Today through Monday night) A cold front moving through the Panhandles early this morning will keep temperatures down about 5 to 10 degrees from yesterday. Temperatures in the lower 90's in the vicinity of the trough will also help the instability.
- A much warmer, milder week ahead as an upper-level ridge overtakes the region. Upper ridge axis has shifted east this morning as an upper trough approaches from the northwest.
649 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024 (Today through Monday) Despite plenty of instability across Central Alabama today, an upper ridge will expand northward today and suppress convection. Increasing southerly flow will bring warmer air northward with highs today in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Mid level dry air intrusion from the morning storms will likely limit areal coverage of thunderstorms Monday afternoon and evening, with the higher threat for severe storm development along and south of I-20.
Cooler and showery conditions will continue across western Washington today as a frontal system brushes the region. Upper level ridging will then gradually begin to build east of the area Monday, allowing for temperatures to warm a few degrees.
445 AM PDT Sun May 26 2024 Dry weather returns on Sunday and Monday with temperatures warming back into 70s and 80s with a ridge pattern over the Pacific Northwest.
207 AM PDT Sun May 26 2024 Warmer weather returns to the region today, with generally above normal temperatures and primarily minor HeatRisk expected through the week ahead.
308 AM MDT Sun May 26 2024 - Cooler, dry and breezy Today.
547 AM MDT Sun May 26 2024 - Cooler, dry and breezy Today.
For early this afternoon, warm air advection will pick up in the low levels. This will likely be accompanied by some gusty winds and will be followed by a cooler, more stable airmass. The cold front itself will finally make its way through the area Monday. Large slow moving mid/upper level trough/low will rotate its way through the Great Lakes during the period, keeping our area under the influence of northwest flow.
Temperatures across the lower deserts will peak in the high 90s to lower 100s, or around 5 degrees above average through the rest of the workweek. A trough of low pressure which brought breezy conditions and cooler temperature to our region over the past few days is now exiting into the Central Plains. Expect highs to top out right around normal in the mid to upper 90s across the lower deserts this afternoon under clear skies and much lighter winds. Heading into Memorial Day, a ridge of high pressure centered over N Mexico will become more amplified, allowing for rising hghts/thicknesses across AZ and southeast CA. Ridging aloft will continue to build over the forecast area through the middle of this week with 500 mb hghts increasing to around 584- 586 dam.
Areas where the line does weaken tomorrow morning, particularly in areas south of I-20, a few storms could redevelop as the cold front itself moves through and become strong to severe.
1218 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024 (Today through Monday night) A cold front moving through the Panhandles early this morning will keep temperatures down about 5 to 10 degrees from yesterday. Temperatures in the lower 90's in the vicinity of the trough will also help the instability.
342 PM EDT Sun May 26 2024 Widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected tonight in the moist and unstable circulation around low pressure to the northwest. The threat for showers and thunderstorms is forecast to diminish Monday as the low moves east.
Another deeper wave can be noted in north central Montana which will move off to the south of our area overnight with a cold front trailing later in the day from the north associated with an upper low in Ontario. Unanimous agreement among models on ridging in the northern plains for the mid week behind tomorrows cold front helping us dry out for a few days, which will be much needed and help all this excess water finally soak in and move through the river basins.
1156 AM MDT Sun May 26 2024 - A few late day showers and thunderstorms over the high mountains today.
Quiet rest of the holiday weekend in store with warmer temperatures and less wind Memorial Day.
The combination of dry air and a slight southward shift in the low track has resulted in less widespread rainfall than expected. Associated with this trough is a potent low-pressure system which produced significant severe weather across the central plains makes its way NE. High temperatures will warm into the low to mid 70s, whereas east of I-35 will reach the low to mid 60s due to higher amounts of cloud cover.
(This evening through Monday night) Northerly winds continue to gust this afternoon behind the early morning cold frontal passage. Look for these winds to slowly die down this evening as models begin to see an upper-level ridge build over the Panhandles. This ridge will keep weather rather benign for what remains of today with afternoon temperatures only in the mid to upper 80s. Heading into Monday, weather looks to start very quiet for the Panhandles with afternoon high temperatures rising into the low 90s for the holiday. This set up will allow for flow at the lower and mid levels to shift to a more southerly and/or southeasterly direction, which will begin to funnel moisture into the Panhandles.
Recent satellite imagery shows deepening Cu field along the cold front along the OK / KS border and expectation is remains that isolated to scattered storms will develop along the boundary as it pushes southeastward into an uncapped and unstable airmass. Meanwhile, isolated storms will remain possible along the advancing cold front through the early evening hours before it clears the local forecast area.
/73 (Now through Monday) Dry and warm conditions expected today as the upper ridge amplifies over the area. Strong subsidence under the ridge will act to suppress shower and storm development. Monday will be more active as the ridge flattens and an upper trough moves across the Mississippi River Valley.
(Rest of Today and Tonight) Heat will remain a concern through the rest of the day as temps rise into the high 80s and low 90s with real feel temps in the mid 90s. A broken line of storms will move through our area ahead of the attached cold front.
Dry weather continues today with warmer afternoon temperatures. Under weak high pressure, VFR weather for most terminals is expected through the TAF period.
Some embedded thunderstorms are possible during the late morning and afternoon with the highest chance across southern Minnesota.
Overall, no changes from the previous forecast packages with warm, very dry, and stagnant pattern in place The upper level trough responsible for yesterday's active weather has since moved east. Weather becomes quiet with upper level ridge building in across the Desert Southwest.
1258 PM MDT Sun May 26 2024 -Showers and isolated thunderstorms through this evening -Warmer and drier this week with thunderstorms returning for the second half of the week Upper trough will continue to move across the region this evening, supporting scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. Ridging will then prevail for the first part of the week, with warmer conds and dry weather. However, the next upper trough will push into the Rockies by mid week as long trajectory southerly flow allows LL moisture return along the plains adjacent to the Rockies, supporting unsettled conds through the end of the week.
1228 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024 (The rest of today ) Additional isolated to scattered storms are possible across portions of eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas late this afternoon into the early evening as a cold front currently working into central Oklahoma moves across the area.
Temperatures are a few degrees warmer than this time yesterday thanks to increasing heights as a ridge begins to set up over the Southwest for the first half of the week.
Dry weather continues today with warmer afternoon temperatures. High pressure will continue to bring stable, clear conditions through the TAF period.
A Pacific cold front stalled across western Oklahoma is expected to start pushing across the rest of our area as the upper trough digs through. High surface pressure builds in with clear skies tonight as northerly winds go light and variable while drier air will result in a less humid and cooler night. Our upper flow shifts northwest on Monday as a ridge builds over the Western U.
The system which brought a cold front along with a few rounds of storms through the region yesterday evening into this morning has since continued off towards the east. For the Memorial Day holiday, pleasant weather remains forecast as a ridge of high pressure builds in, giving mostly sunny skies, light west-northwesterly winds, and high temperatures in the middle 70s to middle 80s.
Warmer today as a warming trend kicks off through the week.
Warmer today as a warming trend kicks off through the week. Given greater insolation this afternoon it has led to warmer temperatures even with onshore flow. 24 hour trends show many spots running 2 to 6 degrees warmer this afternoon. The low clouds over the coastal waters will spread along the coast and locally inland again.
Skies are currently mostly clear with only some daytime cumulus present over the higher elevations. Steadier rain arrives and the low-level jet exits in the evening, so winds will calm down a bit. The cold front will move through Monday night and will bring the heaviest precipitation.
However, no change of air mass is expected, and despite a switch from downslope to upslope flow, high temperatures Monday should be as warm to several degrees warmer due to an increase in thicknesses, especially across the southwestern half of the forecast area.
Primary weather concern for today continues to be heat, as stacked high pressure and westerly flow pushes afternoon highs into the M-U90s inland, L-M90s along the I-95 corridor, and U80s-L90s along the barrier islands.
1118 AM MDT Sun May 26 2024 - Showers and Thunderstorms today - Warmer and drier for the first half of the week with thunderstorms returning for the second half of the week. Current surface map places weak trough across the Northern Plains.
(The rest of today ) Additional isolated to scattered storms are possible across portions of eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas late this afternoon into the early evening as a cold front currently working into central Oklahoma moves across the area.
As the ridge continues to dominate the Gulf of Mexico we will get to keep on enjoying our low rain chances and light winds.
Latest surface analysis shows a warm front draped over SW MO following a boundary from JLN to BBG. With a primed atmosphere in place this afternoon, supercells will be favorable over the next few hours especially as the cold front over central OK continues to push east.
Temperatures continue to push into the low 90s with heat index values peaking around 99-103F over the next couple hours. Along the coast and St Johns River, temps will be a bit warmer with lows in the mid 70s. Possible that localized dense fog develops across the lower Suwannee Valley and I-75 corridor late tonight.
Temperatures will be roughly 5 degrees warmer today than yesterday, and much lighter winds are in store. We will remain dry and since this is not an amplified ridge pattern, expect normal diurnal breezes from 10-20 mph each afternoon.
The high will keep the region dry and quiet for much of the work week.
Hot and dry conditions will persist through Monday as high pressure well out in the Atlantic Ocean continues to dominate.
(Rest of today through Monday) Another warm and sunny couple of days are on tap for the rest of the holiday weekend as ridging continues to build over the area. Surface winds will become generally light with the ridge over the area, which combined with the lack of cloud cover will result in temperatures hitting the mid 90s today, and mid-upper 90s on Monday afternoon across much of South FL.
- A much warmer, milder week ahead as an upper-level ridge overtakes the region.
The high temperatures lead to a warm night tomorrow night with lows in the 60s and 70s.
Byrd Upper level ridge will build over the western CONUS while troughing lingers over the eastern half. Louis metro area TAFs between 21z Sunday and 03z Monday, tapering off once cold front moves through region. As for the winds, gusty south to southwest winds will veer to the northwest behind the cold front and diminish.
440 PM EDT Sun May 26 2024 Widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected tonight in the moist and unstable circulation around low pressure to the northwest. The threat for showers and thunderstorms is forecast to diminish Monday as the low moves east.
This complex did leave behind a theta-e bndry indicative of the cooler and much drier air from near and N of the DFW Metroplex into the Mid Red River Valley, with a steep gradient noted in the sfc theta-e fields just NW of the region. The elevated cigs are expected to continue diminishing/thinning from W to E through the afternoon given the dying convection to our SW, and thus, strong insolation and the warming SSw winds will result in max temps climbing into the lower/mid 90s this afternoon. Unfortunately, it doesn't appear dewpoints will mix out well again at all, with the higher dewpoints noted over lower E TX eventually mixing back N over NE TX where some slightly drier air was able to mix E from the early morning convection.
1104 AM MDT Sun May 26 2024 - Cooler, dry and breezy Today.
PW values still are on the high side, and spot flooding could still occur in one or two areas where training of cells occurs.
249 PM MDT Sun May 26 2024 - A few late day showers and thunderstorms over the high mountains Monday afternoon, especially south of I-70.
1028 AM PDT Sun May 26 2024 Dry weather returns on Sunday and Monday with temperatures warming back into 70s and 80s with a ridge pattern over the Pacific Northwest.
Monday, weak upper ridging will move east and a southwest flow will set up. Any isolated storms will end early Monday evening with it will remain dry Monday night with milder overnight low temperatures due to increasing clouds ahead of the next upper trough and front.
726 PM EDT Sun May 26 2024 Widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected tonight in the moist and unstable circulation around low pressure to the northwest. The threat for showers and thunderstorms is forecast to diminish Monday as the low moves east.
Upper-ridging continues to build over the Northwest through tomorrow, which will bring the start of a short but substantial warming trend to the area.
Memorial Day will be dry all around with plenty of sunshine as stronger ridging returns to the area.
937 PM EDT Sun May 26 2024 Widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected tonight in the moist and unstable circulation around low pressure to the northwest. The threat for showers and thunderstorms is forecast to diminish Monday as the low moves east.
Currently - Deep layered ridging remains dominant in the Keys. Aloft, ridging continues to reach northeastward through the Gulf of Mexico into Florida. 09 inches with considerable dry air through the lower levels along with some inhibition. Warm conditions remain in place with temperatures in the lower to mid 80s and dew points in the lower 70s. Short Term Update - Atlantic ridging will remain across South Florida and the Keys through the overnight period while ridging remains in place aloft. An Atlantic ridge stretching across South Florida and the Keys will maintain light broadly southeasterly breezes on Keys waters overnight.
Persistent troughing has finally exited the region, as latest satellite shows the trough axis over eastern New Mexico this afternoon. Clear skies will continue through most of this week as ridging builds over the region.
701 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024 (This evening through Monday night) Northerly winds continue to gust this afternoon behind the early morning cold frontal passage. Look for these winds to slowly die down this evening as models begin to see an upper-level ridge build over the Panhandles. This ridge will keep weather rather benign for what remains of today with afternoon temperatures only in the mid to upper 80s. Heading into Monday, weather looks to start very quiet for the Panhandles with afternoon high temperatures rising into the low 90s for the holiday. This set up will allow for flow at the lower and mid levels to shift to a more southerly and/or southeasterly direction, which will begin to funnel moisture into the Panhandles.
704 PM EDT Sun May 26 2024 (Rest of today through Monday) Another warm and sunny couple of days are on tap for the rest of the holiday weekend as ridging continues to build over the area. Surface winds will become generally light with the ridge over the area, which combined with the lack of cloud cover will result in temperatures hitting the mid 90s today, and mid-upper 90s on Monday afternoon across much of South FL.
517 PM MDT Sun May 26 2024 - A few late day showers and thunderstorms over the high mountains Monday afternoon, especially south of I-70.
520 PM MDT Sun May 26 2024 -Showers and isolated thunderstorms through this evening -Warmer and drier this week with thunderstorms returning for the second half of the week Upper trough will continue to move across the region this evening, supporting scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. Ridging will then prevail for the first part of the week, with warmer conds and dry weather. However, the next upper trough will push into the Rockies by mid week as long trajectory southerly flow allows LL moisture return along the plains adjacent to the Rockies, supporting unsettled conds through the end of the week.
Byrd Upper level ridge will build over the western CONUS while troughing lingers over the eastern half. Byrd Cold front has moved through KUIN, KCOU and KJEF with winds from the northwest.
Cooler and showery conditions will continue across western Washington today as a frontal system brushes the region. Upper level ridging will then gradually begin to build east of the area Monday, allowing for temperatures to warm.
Mid-level lapse rates are fairly stable but steeper lapse rates are beginning to arrive in concert with the upper low and vort max.
908 PM EDT Sun May 26 2024 A warm front will lift northeast into the state tonight, but will likely stall its progress near or just to the east of the Susquehanna Valley until later Monday. Low pressure will pass over the Upper Great Lakes on Memorial Day, dragging a cold front through late Monday/evening. An upper level trough will build into the region for the remaining portion of the week. However, model guidance indicates an upsloping southeast flow will yield developing stratus across the higher terrain of Northern and Eastern PA. Surging low level moisture and cloud cover should result in a significantly warmer night than those recently, with min temps in the 60s. However, low level instability associated with a deepening trough over the Grt Lks could result in late night showers over the NW Mtns.
Decaying showers will give way to high pressure on Monday. Expecting warmer and drier conditions, but could still see some cloud cover and thus dampening any intense warming.
High temperatures will rise tomorrow inland as a ridge builds in.
750 PM MDT Sun May 26 2024 -Showers and isolated thunderstorms through this evening -Warmer and drier this week with thunderstorms returning for the second half of the week Main band of showers and thunderstorms is starting to exit far eastern portions of the forecast area right now, with isolated to widely scattered showers/thundershowers now developing over northeast WY with a secondary disturbance passing over eastern MT/far northeast WY. Upper trough will continue to move across the region this evening, supporting scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. Ridging will then prevail for the first part of the week, with warmer conds and dry weather. However, the next upper trough will push into the Rockies by mid week as long trajectory southerly flow allows LL moisture return along the plains adjacent to the Rockies, supporting unsettled conds through the end of the week.
656 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024 (Rest of Today and Tonight) Heat will remain a concern through the rest of the day as temps rise into the high 80s and low 90s with real feel temps in the mid 90s. A broken line of storms will move through our area ahead of the attached cold front.
This is also when there is some potential for a tornado to occur within modest low level helicity before the low level jet begins to pull north and eastward out of the area. Forecast guidance has increasingly trended toward the cold pool from overnight convection and/or outflows racing well south and eastward into our area tomorrow morning, acting in effect as a cold front by ushering in much drier air.
Deep layered ridging remains dominant across the Keys early this morning. Temperatures are also very warm along the Island Chain this morning in the lower 80s with dew points in the mid 70s. The forecast through mid week will continue to remain quiet as deep mean layer ridging remains in place across the Keys.
High pressure remains in place over the western Atlantic with an upper-level ridge building over the Gulf of Mexico and the state of Florida. Current temperatures are in the low to upper 80s with mostly clear skies.
Some embedded thunderstorms are possible during the late morning and afternoon with the highest chance across southern Minnesota. Temperatures will be on the cooler side Tuesday (low to mid 60s) and gradually warm into the mid to upper 70s for the remainder of the period as a ridge builds in.
Latest surface analysis shows a warm front draped over SW MO following a boundary from JLN to BBG. With a primed atmosphere in place this afternoon, supercells will be favorable over the next few hours especially as the cold front over central OK continues to push east. Dry and slightly cooler temperatures are expected during this period. High pressure will shift eastward during the end of the week and will allow moisture to start creeping back into the area over the western CWA with precipitation chances increasing over the area from late in the week into the upcoming weekend(20-50%).
Ahead of this low pressure, surface forcing has generated some showers over western MN. During the afternoon hours, the line of rainfall will transition to more scattered coverage along with some redevelopment back across west-central MN as the core of the low reaches southwest MN. On Tuesday, upper-level troughing begins to depart east while ridging builds in the west.
217 AM MDT Mon May 27 2024 - Dry and warmer today and Tuesday - Thunderstorms return for the last half of the week.
Mostly clear skies and dry conditions are expected through tonight with high pressure being the dominate feature across the area. Winds will be light and variable through this evening with highs ranging from the low 80s along the I-70 corridor with upper 80s elsewhere. Highs tomorrow look to reach into the low to mid 80s.