Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1043 PM EDT Sat Aug 31 2024 While one cold front will exit our area this evening. a second cold front on Sunday will likely generate another round of mainly afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Much cooler and less humid weather will then follow for the bulk of the upcoming work week. as a large area of Canadian high pressure will dominate our region. A slightly cooler and drier air mass will build into the region overnight in the wake of a cold front that dissipated to our southwest earlier in the evening. A mid level trough will drop across our region Sunday night, with any lingering showers east of Lake Ontario ending through the evening hours. A cool airmass within this trough, with 850 hPa temperatures dropping to +3 to +4C.
Low level troughing overhead has established weak cyclonic flow across our waters with breezes along the Reef taking on a more southerly component as Cuban boundaries are advected into our waters. This is evidenced by the continued pull of tropical moisture in from the east and persistence of confluent flow influenced by the trough draped across our waters. That being said, the exact timing of convective surges is still up in the air as it clashes with subsidence from filtered in by an upper level anticyclone to its west and a upper level trough on its east.
728 PM EDT Sat Aug 31 2024 Scattered showers and storms are expected into this evening ahead of a slow moving cold front. High pressure will build across the Great Lakes for the first part of the week offering dry and seasonably mild conditions. Mid level flow to amplify as trof settles south from Canada into the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley overnight into Sunday. Skies will become mostly clear with lows from the lower 50s north to the lower 60s south. Mid level flow to amplify with a mean trof settling s-se from southern Canada into the Great Lakes/New England. Highs will range from the lower 80s north to the upper 80s south of the Ohio River on Sunday.
A strong cold front will arrive late Sunday afternoon with brief showers.
pdf High pressure will be centered to the east of the region through Sunday. Lows Tonight in the lower 70s will be common inland, with mid 70s at the coast.
The lower levels will remain very dry, and the latest hi-res models continue to indicate very little rainfall is expected, with lightning and gusty outflow winds up to 40-50 mph possible.
733 PM CDT Sat Aug 31 2024 Tonight and Sunday: mid afternoon water vapor imagery/RAP analysis showed the circulation around a center of low pressure along the northeast Texas coast. The low pressure system along the Texas coast is expected to shift slowly to the southwest tonight and Sunday. With less convection Sunday, temperatures will top out a degree or two warmer than this afternoon. Residual cloud cover and the abnormally moist airmass over our CWA will help keep morning lows slightly warmer than normal.
651 PM CDT Sat Aug 31 2024 (This evening through Sunday night) Currently there is a mid to upper level ridge over much of the western CONUS with a ridge dipping into the Upper Midwest and north-eastern US. Over northern Mexico into the northern Gulf of Mexico several small areas of low pressure exist. The high pressure to the west is expected to keep temperatures near normal today and tomorrow. However, one of these areas of low pressure to the south is expected to move north into parts of eastern NM, West Texas, stopping just short of the TX Panhandle.
523 PM MDT Sat Aug 31 2024 - Isolated showers and thunderstorms across the higher terrain, especially the Continental Divide, this afternoon/evening and once again Sunday afternoon.
Lows tonight fall into the lower 70s across the area. /86/ Tonight and Sunday: mid afternoon water vapor imagery/RAP analysis showed the circulation around a center of low pressure along the northeast Texas coast. The low pressure system along the Texas coast is expected to shift slowly to the southwest tonight and Sunday. With less convection Sunday, temperatures will top out a degree or two warmer than this afternoon. Residual cloud cover and the abnormally moist airmass over our CWA will help keep morning lows slightly warmer than normal.
Some of this activity will push onshore in the E/SE steering flow in the lower levels. Low temperatures are forecast to mostly range the mid to upper 70s while rural locations could see temperatures fall into the low 70s.
Some of this activity will push onshore in the E/SE steering flow in the lower levels.
848 PM MDT Sat Aug 31 2024 - Dry weather continues through Sunday, with only an isolated shower/storm possible over the higher terrain.
The latest surface analysis places a nearly stationary cold front right along the Tennessee and Kentucky border and extending northeast through Louisville, Kentucky and up into western Pennsylvania. This front is forecast to remain stalled near the border through the overnight hours before the main trough ejects into the Great Lakes Region and helps push the front southward tomorrow morning.
852 PM EDT Sat Aug 31 2024 Scattered showers and storms are expected into this evening ahead of a slow moving cold front. High pressure will build across the Great Lakes for the first part of the week offering dry and seasonably mild conditions. Previous discussion > Mid level flow to amplify as trof settles south from Canada into the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley overnight into Sunday. Skies will become mostly clear with lows from the lower 50s north to the lower 60s south. Mid level flow to amplify with a mean trof settling s-se from southern Canada into the Great Lakes/New England. Highs will range from the lower 80s north to the upper 80s south of the Ohio River on Sunday.
211 AM MDT Sun Sep 1 2024 - Dry weather continues today, with only an isolated shower/storm possible over the higher terrain. An upper level high will remain over the area today and tonight. Temperatures are expected to remain above seasonal averages, with the warmest temperatures forecast to reach the low 90s, mainly along and east of I-25, and along and north of I-76. ECMWF and GFS ensembles continue to indicate PWAT anomalies will remain in the 50-70% range of normal across the plains, with an uptick to above normal ranges (120-130%) across the high country.
1125 PM MDT Sat Aug 31 2024 - Isolated showers and thunderstorms across the higher terrain, especially the Continental Divide, this afternoon/evening and once again Sunday afternoon.
On Sunday, the stationary boundary along the Missouri and Arkansas border will start to move southward as a cold front.
Meanwhile, surface obs show a cold front situated to our west over the Arkansas/Missouri area.
Quiet weather is expected through the holiday, as ridging takes over in the UL through mid-week.
(Today through Monday night) High pressure remains over the southern plains for the next couple of days. That being said if the high weakens enough then some moisture may push back into the southern TX panhandle.
All of this is possible because the upper-level pattern becomes quite flat and the ridge axis remains essentially stationary. Late in the week, though, a digging trough in the great lakes region looks to suppress the ridge axis and push it farther east.
Highs will be similar to yesterday, but slightly cooler in the mid-80s off the Caprock.
Highs in the low 70s. 50 inches behind the cold front that cruised through the region yesterday. Clear skies and radiational cooling will have morning lows in the 40s with some of our cooler spots in the upper 30s. The high pressure meanders towards Lake Michigan through the day with southerly flow returning and highs climbing into the low and mid 70s.
356 AM CDT Sun Sep 1 2024 -A cold front moves through today, bringing a cooler and drier air mass into the region.
Clear conditions across ND and MN this evening, with temperatures already in the low 50s in some places. The strong (130 knot) upper level jet is poking into southwest Ontario, the area behind the surface cold front (which was moving into the arrowhead of Minnesota). These features will continue to push eastward tonight, replaced over the next day or so by a flattening 500mb ridge. Further south into the LOW area, the shear remains, but the CAPE is almost non-existent. CAMs continue to show a few cells dropping down through the LOW area through the late afternoon/early evening, moving at about 50 mph or more. Overall, the severe threat in the LOW seems quite low, but will continue to monitor upstream activity for the next few hours.
332 AM EDT Sun Sep 1 2024 - Cooling Trend Through Labor Day - Dry into Mid Week then Chance for Rain Late in the Week - Moderating Trend in Temperatures Through the Week - Cooling Trend Through Labor Day In this cooler and drier weather pattern, the main weather-related hazard will be dangerous waves and currents on Lake Michigan today. The base of a synoptic upper-level trough is passing through the northern Great Lakes this morning. A surface cold front with a distinct wind shift can be tracked northwest to southeast through Lower Michigan this morning. 850 mb temperatures will drop several degrees C through the day, and full mixing from surface to 850 would support highs in the lower 70s in central MI and mid-upper 70s in southern MI, on the cooler side of normal for Sept 1.
1144 PM CDT Sat Aug 31 2024 - A secondary cold front arrives tomorrow, reinforcing the cooler and drier environment in place across central and southeastern Illinois. A secondary cold front will move through tomorrow, reinforcing the cooler and drier environment, making this Labor Day holiday very pleasant.
As an upper level trough swings through the Tennessee Valley, a cold front is forecast to move in from the northwest today bringing medium-high chances (50-70%) of showers/storms during the afternoon hours.
A relatively cooler airmass is settling into the region, with temperatures trending about 5-10 degrees cooler this morning compared to yesterday morning. These cooler temperatures and residual low-level moisture in the wake of the front has lead to fog development mainly in river valleys across southeastern Missouri and southwestern Illinois per recent satellite imagery and surface observations. However, a trough digging across the eastern CONUS will help push another front through the Middle Mississippi Valley. Deep northerly to northwesterly flow in the wake of the front will usher in a cooler airmass Sunday night into Monday. Elmore Per guidance consensus, the upper-level trough will be pushing through New England as ridging builds into the Midwest at the beginning of the period.
A strong cold front will arrive late Sunday afternoon, but will only bring brief showers. This will be followed by much drier and cooler conditions Monday. No major changes to the forecast as patchy fog in the valleys and low clouds in the higher terrain take hold. SW flow tomorrow will bring in warmer air ahead of a cold front dropping through the Great Lakes. Strong high pressure will be the dominant feature impacting the weather through mid week. NW flow on the east side of the high will bring colder than normal temperatures to the region.
1208 AM CDT Sun Sep 1 2024 (This evening through Sunday night) Currently there is a mid to upper level ridge over much of the western CONUS with a ridge dipping into the Upper Midwest and north-eastern US. Over northern Mexico into the northern Gulf of Mexico several small areas of low pressure exist. The high pressure to the west is expected to keep temperatures near normal today and tomorrow. However, one of these areas of low pressure to the south is expected to move north into parts of eastern NM, West Texas, stopping just short of the TX Panhandle.
145 AM EDT Sun Sep 1 2024 Scattered showers and storms are expected into this evening ahead of a slow moving cold front. High pressure will build across the Great Lakes for the first part of the week offering dry and seasonably mild conditions. Previous discussion > Mid level flow to amplify as trof settles south from Canada into the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley overnight into Sunday. Skies will become mostly clear with lows from the lower 50s north to the lower 60s south. Mid level flow to amplify with a mean trof settling s-se from southern Canada into the Great Lakes/New England. Highs will range from the lower 80s north to the upper 80s south of the Ohio River on Sunday.
Further north, across NE OK, more sunshine may allow highs to approach the lower 90s.
Aloft a large area of high heights is centered near Utah, leading to a ridge in the western CONUS. Monday the ridge axis moves east over North Dakota, bringing a very warm thermal ridge with it. Most of the area will see warmer than average high temperatures. The thermal ridge will be over the southwest part of the state. With winds gusting, this thermal ridge will mix down, leading to temperatures in the mid 90s in the southwest.
Analysis shows a broad low pressure/coastal trough from along the mid Texas coast into southwest Louisiana with a mid/upper level low spinning over southeast Texas. Once again, activity over land areas should gradually decrease by midnight, then nocturnal shower activity will redevelop over the coastal waters into extreme southwest Louisiana and coastal southeast Texas near the low center. Rua (Tonight through Monday night) The Labor Day weekend remains a tale of below normal temperatures and above normal precipitation owing to the quasistationary mid level trof sitting over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico and the deep, tropical moisture associated with it. Continued to carry scattered to widespread PoPs through Monday with the highest probs near the coast.
A cold front passing through early this morning will bring cooler conditions through at least early this week. - Gusty north winds behind the cold front will bring a high swim risk today for Milwaukee County beaches and south along Lake Michigan. Issued 357 AM CDT Sun Sep 1 2024 Today through Monday: Breezy northerly winds winds are expected today behind a cold front currently dropping through the area. Otherwise, quiet weather is expected today through Monday as high pressure builds into the region behind the cold front. Temps will be a bit cooler through tomorrow, with highs in the low to mid 70s and low in the upper 40s to low 50s. Should see plenty of sunshine today and again tomorrow under the high.
(Today through Monday) A trough is in place across the Southeast, with a weak frontal boundary to our north. Activity will likely start along the trough in the southern sections, and to our north ahead of the initial front. As the evening continues, the second cold front will overtake the washed out front and begin to approach Alabama by sunrise Monday.
254 AM CDT Sun Sep 1 2024 - A cold front will pass through the region today, ushering in seasonably cool and less humid air. Satellite imagery shows that those areas are on the northern periphery of the cloud shield associated with the slow moving cold front now positioned near the Ohio River Valley. The main weather highlight for today is the passage of a cold front. High temps will generally be in the upper 70s/low 80s, although they could climb into the upper 80s south of I-70 where the cold front is slower to arrive.
A drier day on Monday (Labor Day) with the boundary and main forcing just to our south and subsequently PoPs are much lower (10-30%), with the highest values favoring areas south of the Tennessee River. Ample sunshine with a mostly clear sky will allow temperatures to rebound into the low to mid 90s once again with afternoon RH values dropping into the 35-45 percent range.
Highs today will be three to five degrees cooler than normal.
1217 AM CDT Sun Sep 1 2024 - A cold front today brings breezy winds and a chance for showers and an isolated severe thunderstorm which could produce damaging winds.
pdf High pressure will be centered to the east of the region through Sunday. Lows Tonight in the lower 70s will be common inland, with mid 70s at the coast. Temperatures will be slightly above normal, with high temperatures around 90/lower 90s each day and low temperatures in the lower-mid 70s, as an approaching cold front briefly stalls over ctrl GA.
The instability was just enough to overcome weak high pressure and get storms going in most locations. The convection has subsequently stabilized the lower levels. But a remnant surface boundary/trough will enter northern areas overnight into Sunday an then weakens.
- An additional frontal passage this evening ushers in a cooler and drier airmass for the week ahead. By this afternoon, mid-level height rises rebound behind the departing trough. However, changes are on the horizon ahead of additional frontal passage this evening that will filter in a cooler and drier airmass into early this week.
1102 PM MDT Sat Aug 31 2024 - Dry weather continues through Sunday, with only an isolated shower/storm possible over the higher terrain. Water vapor imagery shows very dry air over Colorado with the center of an upper level high pressure system almost directly overhead. It is possible a couple showers form over the higher terrain but minimal rain will reach the surface.
1020 PM PDT Sat Aug 31 2024 The Labor Day weekend will feature much warmer than average temperatures with most of the Inland Northwest exceeding 90 degrees Sunday and Monday.
252 AM MDT Sun Sep 1 2024 Ridge axis slides over our CWA today with associated pressure falls on the plains inducing downslope warming. This will help push temps into the lower to mid 90s for many locations today. very warm 850 mb temps will encompass our region as the ridge axis slides a bit east. Billings 99 (1998) Livingston 95 (2017) Sheridan 100 (1940) As the ridge slides east our mid level winds will back to the southwest and tap some monsoonal moisture.
326 AM EDT Sun Sep 1 2024 * Cooler temperatures and low humidity can be expected today through the middle of the week. Troughing moving across Ontario into Quebec today will drive a cold front through Michigan during the morning hours. Another notable change with the passing of the front will be decreasing humidity as dewpoints fall into the lower/mid 50s arrive by late afternoon.
Low clouds are expected to linger over the southeastern quadrant of our FA through early to mid-afternoon, and this will keep high temperatures in the low to mid-80's. Elsewhere, temperatures will be warmer as cloud-cover diminishes.
A cold front will move through the Midsouth today accompanied by a final round of showers and thunderstorms.
A strong cold front will arrive late Sunday afternoon, but will only bring brief showers. This will be followed by much drier and cooler conditions Monday. No major changes to the forecast as patchy fog in the valleys and low clouds in the higher terrain take hold. SW flow tomorrow will bring in warmer air ahead of a cold front dropping through the Great Lakes. 110 PM Update: A large/strong area of high pressure will dominate our weather though the short term period, which will bring a persistent period of mostly sunny skies/dry conditions.
(Today through Monday) A weakening mid-level low will be drifting westward towards the Florida Peninsula through the day today while an amplifying mid level trough dives down from the Mid-Atlantic states towards the southeast.
A ridge of high pressure continues to dominate the weather over the region, and it will continue to do so through the weekend. This means hot, dry conditions will continue to support active fire across the region, and with a ridge in place the smoke won't clear out very quickly.
Cold front currently across the Midwest is anticipated to sink southward through Middle Tennessee today, bringing another round of scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms this morning and afternoon. Precip coverage and cloud cover will keep temperatures much cooler today than yesterday, with highs only in the 80s. Highs will be a little warmer than today due to the sunny skies with 80s to around 90 anticipated.
(Through Sunday) UA ridging remains the rule through the weekend, thus keeping PWATS in check this aftn ranging from 1. Will be seeing the UA ridge slowly shift south and east throughout the period, due to an impinging frontal boundary moving in from the northwest. Overnight temps will be in the low to mid 70s, with Sunday daytime highs in the mid 90s. Meanwhile, a cold front will be trudging through the southeast and nearing the region during the day Monday.
/NEW/ /Through Labor Day/ Though large scale ridging will remain centered over the Rockies and the Plains through the weekend, a weak surface front positioned across the CWA and a weakness in the ridge aloft will provide focus for showers and thunderstorms once again Sunday afternoon. A weak disturbance rounding the base of the ridge on Monday will enhance the lift across the region, increasing rain chances for Labor Day. The highest Labor Day POPs will be across roughly the western half of the CWA where the lowest mid level heights will exist, but just about anyone could see a shower or storm. Otherwise; clouds, precipitation, and the presence of the front will offset the effects of the ridge, keeping temperatures near normal through the holiday weekend.
In the coming days, the weather across the region will continue to be influenced by a broad area of low pressure situated near the upper Texas coast. Expect temperatures to reach the low to mid 90s today, upper 80s to low 90s tomorrow.
209 AM CDT Sun Sep 1 2024 - As cold front continues to slowly push southeast across the region, shower and thunderstorm chances will linger this morning across southern parts of southeast Missouri and western Kentucky.
(Today through Monday afternoon) The weak cold front has finally moved through the area with most locations showing light north to northeasterly winds. Models are showing a weak 500 mb trough lingering over the area that combined with afternoon heating will help cause another round of showers and thunderstorms to develop this afternoon with the highest rain chances south of I-10 and decreasing farther north.
359 AM EDT Sun Sep 1 2024 Cooler and drier air will overspread the region later today. KEY MESSAGES: -Scattered to isolated activity is possible this morning over the ridges as a cold front exits the region. -Cooler and drier air will move in later today. ---------------------------------------------------------------- Heights will slowly lower today as a large and deep upper level low digs in over eastern Canada north of the eastern Great Lakes. The surface cold front will finally exit the region late this morning, bringing an end to the threat of showers ahead of it. A second cold front will cross later this afternoon and really intensify the intrusion of drier and cooler air.
Cooler air will also settle into the region and will stick around through midweek.
A drier and slightly cooler air mass builds in behind the front tonight.
Water vapor imagery highlights an anticyclone over the Gulf of Mexico and a narrow upper level trough over Florida. The low level ridge reaches west across Florida, while a pesky trough axis remains to the southwest of the Florida Keys. A weak trough will linger near the Keys coastal waters through Monday resulting in unsettled weather along with moderate southeast breezes.
747 AM EDT Sun Sep 1 2024 - Cooling Trend Through Labor Day - Dry into Mid Week then Chance for Rain Late in the Week - Moderating Trend in Temperatures Through the Week - Cooling Trend Through Labor Day In this cooler and drier weather pattern, the main weather-related hazard will be dangerous waves and currents on Lake Michigan today. The base of a synoptic upper-level trough is passing through the northern Great Lakes this morning. A surface cold front with a distinct wind shift can be tracked northwest to southeast through Lower Michigan this morning. 850 mb temperatures will drop several degrees C through the day, and full mixing from surface to 850 would support highs in the lower 70s in central MI and mid-upper 70s in southern MI, on the cooler side of normal for Sept 1.