Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
However, while winds remain fairly calm through out the lower peninsula, there remains slightly drier air south of the above mentioned demarcation. While shallow fog is still possible, it will be limited to only the low lying regions Any fog will continue until shortly after sunrise before lifting and dissipating. Warm dry air will follow as high pressure moves over the central United States and will dominate the pattern through the upcoming week. The ridge will shift eastward mid week with a perturbation riding over the top of the ridge which could bring a temps slightly closer to normal.
An upper low over southern Cali will drive mid-level Pacific moisture into the Southern Plains with increasing high clouds.
Dewpoints in the low-mid 50s will make this a comfortable fall day. Some high cloud cover will be seen in eastern CWA as the axis of the upper low moves e and away. By the end of the weekend, a deep ridge will be well established over the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley regions providing continued dry conditions and light northeasterly flow. Temperatures remain above average into the early parts of the week with light northeasterly flow the only factor limiting the ceiling for warmer temperatures. Into midweek, the interaction of PTC9 (Imelda once formed) and a lingering upper level low may contribute increased sky cover and low chances for rainfall, primarily across the south.
Mid-level ridging remains across the area today. Ridging remains in place through the period. Models usually tend to break down the ridge faster than expected. Even the ensembles hold on to ridging through the period.
An eastern states upper trof lifts well off to the northeast through Sunday while an upper ridge develops over the central states then builds into the interior eastern states.
609 AM CDT Sat Sep 27 2025 - Breezy northerly winds this morning behind a cold frontal passage with highs today in the mid 70s to mid 80s. A slightly cooler day is expected across the area in the wake of the cold frontal passage. Clear skies and light winds tonight will result temperatures sinking into the low 50s, with upper 40s possible across far northwestern portions of the area. Ridging builds over the Midwest on Sunday with troughing over the southwestern U. As of late, temperatures have been on the higher side of model guidance on days similar to Sunday, so wouldn't be surprised to see southern portions of the area to see highs near 90 degrees.
A closed upper low will remain nearly stationary over the Imperial Sand Dunes through at least this evening. Weak s/wvs moving around the low have caused periodic flares of convection, otherwise, the boundary layer has cooled too much to rely on surface heating alone. By tonight, the low starts moving eastward in response to deep upstream troughing. The low moves through northern Arizona Sunday, with convection continuing.
621 AM CDT Sat Sep 27 2025 - Clear skies and slightly cooler, drier air will continue through the weekend.
Drier Saturday night through Sunday night as a upper ridge takes control. Ample and persistent upper level trough, with axis along the southern states, will gradually advance east through Saturday night. Cloud cover and a gentle northerly breeze will keep afternoon temperatures from the low 80s across the lowlands, ranging into the upper 50s northeast mountains. By Saturday night, the upper trough moves overhead, providing forcing along and east of the mountains.
UPDATE Clear skies and light winds have allowed temperatures to drop a bit more than forecast, especially in the traditionally cooler spots. Southerly surface winds will help maintain high temperatures that, while cooler than previous days, are still seasonably warm and mostly in the 70s with a few 80 degree readings possible. Continued southerly flow at the surface and an amplifying ridge will lead to well above average temperatures in the 80s.
602 AM CDT Sat Sep 27 2025 Updated at 601 AM CDT Sat Sep 27 2025 - Drier and cooler air will filter in resulting in pleasant conditions through this weekend.
River valley fog has burned off this morning, revealing mostly clear skies and cooler temperatures. A closed upper level low is over the TN Valley early this morning, with deep moisture streaming northward along and east of the Appalachians. Brief saturation in the lower levels is producing some brief cloudiness across south-central KY early this morning. The upper low is forecast to rotate eastward through tomorrow while weakening. Meanwhile, amplifying ridging is forecast to build east across the Plains and Midwest. Rising heights aloft and increasing low-level thicknesses will support slightly warmer temps each day.
* A strong Pacific storm will bring showers and thunderstorms, gusty winds, and cooler temperatures Sunday through midweek. Minor deepening of discrete low pressure in southern California will allow moisture and weak instability to lift northward into the region today. Potent low pressure in the eastern Pacific will support a multi- day stretch of unsettled weather that begins Sunday and lasts through midweek.
723 AM EDT Sat Sep 27 2025 High pressure will build across the region and will remain in control this weekend.
614 AM CDT Sat Sep 27 2025 Ridging aloft from a building high pressure over northeastern Mexico is expected to keep dry conditions (less than 10% PoP's) across most of Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley today through the daytime tomorrow, outside of a low (15-20%) chance of rain for southern portions of Cameron County tomorrow afternoon.
The warm advection and sunshine will boost temperatures into the lower to middle 80s for the afternoon. The high will then expand ewd across the Great Lakes on Sunday with light ely winds across srn WI.
559 AM CDT Sat Sep 27 2025 Updated at 554 AM CDT SAT SEP 27 2025 - Cooler today.
739 AM EDT Sat Sep 27 2025 Rain chances ramp back up south and east of Pittsburgh on today with passing low pressure. KEY MESSAGES: - Some morning fog north of Pittsburgh - Low pressure returns rain chances south and east of Pittsburgh --------------------------------------------------------------- A deepening trough across the southeast CONUS will support the development of weak low pressure across the Carolinas and slowly steer it up the East Coast today. Current consensus is that the highest rain chances and heaviest amounts are to the east of Pittsburgh coincident with best forcing from the low and upper jet support.
626 AM CDT Sat Sep 27 2025 An eastern states upper trof lifts well off to the northeast through Sunday while an upper ridge develops over the central states then builds into the interior eastern states.
552 AM CDT Sat Sep 27 2025 -Patchy fog will be possible across the state during the morning hours -Dry conditions are expected over the next several days due to high pressure over the region -Temperatures are expected to be average to slightly above average A mostly settled weather pattern is expected across the region over the next several days. (12Z TAFS) Calm and dry conditions are expected through the period as high pressure controls the weather pattern.
Clear skies and light winds have allowed temperatures to drop a bit more than forecast, especially in the traditionally cooler spots. Southerly surface winds will help maintain high temperatures that, while cooler than previous days, are still seasonably warm and mostly in the 70s with a few 80 degree readings possible. Continued southerly flow at the surface and an amplifying ridge will lead to well above average temperatures in the 80s.
An upper low will shift eastward across the southern TN valley over the next 24 hours or so. The proximity of this upper low will lead to increased lapse rates aloft and should result in continued isolated to scattered showers through the remainder of the night and into the daytime hours today.
A cold front was moving through the forecast area this afternoon, accompanied by a narrow band of stratocumulus clouds. Ahead of the front, temperatures had warmed into the lower to middle 80s, while temperatures were only in the upper 60s and lower 70s in its wake. High pressure will build into the region in the wake of the front, with clear skies, light winds and a very dry air mass supportive of cool overnight temperatures tonight. Have kept cooler Min temperatures in the forecast tonight, with lows in the middle 30s in parts of north central WI, where patchy frost is expected overnight into early Sunday.
The weak cold front over southwestern Kansas and into the central Oklahoma panhandle remains just northwest of the forecast area. Some high clouds will spread into the western portion of the area east of the broader western United States trough.
This gradual pattern change will eventually lead to the eventual demise of the earlier discussed large upper low over the Southwest. A weak cold front pushed south across southwest Kansas earlier this morning, resulting in a northeast wind 10 to 13 knots.
133 PM EDT Sat Sep 27 2025 High pressure dominates the weather pattern for the coming week, ensuring predominantly dry conditions other than a few isolated light showers or sprinkles tonight around the Poconos and southern Catskills.
(Through tonight ) Mostly clear skies with light winds and seasonably cool temperatures will prevail tonight, with overnight lows ranging from the lower 50s to the lower 60s.
For the most part, high pressure will be in control of the weather for the forecast area through the upcoming work week, and no significant frontal passages are expected. As the tropical system moves slowly up the southeast coast, there could initially be a trough passage that corresponds with a slight uptick in rain chances in our area. But that will be followed by an increase in dry air advection in the boundary layer along with slightly cooler temperatures as well, especially by late week.
Updated at 1230 PM CDT SAT SEP 27 2025 - Cooler today.
(Sunday night through next Saturday) Upper level ridging is currently in place across our area, with a 575mb low over southern California.
115 PM EDT Sat Sep 27 2025 High pressure will build across the region and will remain in control this weekend.
Pattern Synopsis: A weak cold front crosses the area late this afternoon into this evening. Pattern Synopsis: A blocky pattern remains over the region for most of the week, with broad upper-level ridging remaining in place across most of the lower 48 states.
Suffice it to say, is very hard to get precipitation with dry air in the lowest 15,000 feet of the atmosphere.
However, while winds remain fairly calm through out the lower peninsula, there remains slightly drier air south of the above mentioned demarcation. While shallow fog is still possible, it will be limited to only the low lying regions Any fog will continue until shortly after sunrise before lifting and dissipating. Warm dry air will follow as high pressure moves over the central United States and will dominate the pattern through the upcoming week. The ridge will shift eastward mid week with a perturbation riding over the top of the ridge which could bring a temps slightly closer to normal. There are mitigating factors however including a more turbulent boundary layer due to an approaching cold front. This cold front will cross the area overnight causing our predominantly west southwest flow to become northwesterly into the day on Sunday.
The upper-level low pressure system that has been causing impactful weather during the last couple of days remains situated near southeast CA as of early this afternoon. Along the eastern flank of the low, shower and thunderstorm activity have erupted across portions of southeast CA and southwest AZ, with activity expected to continue across these through this evening before eventually dissipating completely.
Tomorrow, marginally cooler, near average high temperatures are expected across the CWA due to gradually increasing cloud coverage.
151 PM MDT Sat Sep 27 2025 - An upper-level ridge keeps the region drier today through the weekend with temperatures warming back into the 70s and 80s. The upper level ridge will start to breakdown and start to push east tonight. This will allow some moisture to advect into the region as the upper level low near the four corners region rejoins the flow and shifts northeast. However, RH values are expected to be in the low 30's as the gusty winds occur so no fire weather products will be issued. The synoptic weather pattern for most of the week will be characterized by a broad ridge encompassing most of the central and eastern CONUS, leaving southwest flow aloft over our area.
High pressure at the surface and aloft remains in control over the region this weekend providing tranquil conditions with above normal temperatures.
Early this afternoon, a weak surface boundary was draped across the forecast area in between high pressure to our north and high pressure to our southeast. With that, temps will be a few degrees warmer Sunday afternoon as highs reach the mid and upper 80s -- a good ten degrees above average for late September.
- Breezy northerly winds this morning behind a cold frontal passage with highs today in the mid 70s to mid 80s. A slightly cooler day is expected across the area in the wake of the cold frontal passage. Clear skies and light winds tonight will result temperatures sinking into the low 50s, with upper 40s possible across far northwestern portions of the area. Ridging builds over the Midwest on Sunday with troughing over the southwestern U. As of late, temperatures have been on the higher side of model guidance on days similar to Sunday, so wouldn't be surprised to see southern portions of the area to see highs near 90 degrees.
122 PM EDT Sat Sep 27 2025 High pressure will build in from the west today cresting over the area late in the day. High pressure will move east of the region tonight. A weak cold front will cross the area Sunday.
The upper trough has likely provided fairly steep midlevel lapse rates and a low WBZ height that has allowed for small hail to form in some of the stronger storms. Conditions appear favorable for fog development tonight, with clouds expected to clear out as the upper trough shifts east of the mountains. Surface winds should be calm as a high pressure ridge extends from the lower OH Valley across KY.
- Light snow can't be ruled out for the highest elevations over the weekend though no impacts are expected to roadways. Closed low pressure is currently spinning over the Baja and AZ/CA state line.
(Today and tonight) Upper ridging will strengthen slightly today, with temperatures warming a couple degrees. High will be in the lower 90s in the Concho Valley and Big Country with upper 80s elsewhere. (Sunday night through next Saturday) Upper level ridging is currently in place across our area, with a 575mb low over southern California.
Latest guidance from the U of Arizona WRF does seems to keep convection going into the overnight, with additional storm coverage moves northward out of the Lower Deserts. With the added dynamics of the low nearby, 0-6 km shear is around 20-30 kts, thus a few strong to severe storms will be possible this afternoon. The low finally begins to propagate through Arizona on Sunday as it lifts and weakens.
Surface and mid-level ridging in place this weekend keeping seasonal conditions with scattered clouds and high temperatures mainly in the lower to mid 90s.
245 PM MDT Sat Sep 27 2025 - Dry and breezy with seasonal temperatures - Near record temperatures expected tomorrow - Elevated fire weather conditions possible throughout the weekend A high pressure system remains centered of the Colorado front range but is close enough to continue to influence our weather across eastern Wyoming and western South Dakota. Water vapor analysis continues to show a closed low spinning across southern California and a long wave trough approaching the western CONUS.
Cooler temperatures will especially be felt at night with low temperatures through the weekend before temperatures begin to slowly moderate by the next work week. Deterministic output continues to suggest that a weak 500mb trough axis will continue to slide east across the SE CONUS, allowing for a more pronounced upper ridge envelope to evolve across the center of the country.
103 PM PDT Sat Sep 27 2025 Showers and thunderstorms are expected through this evening, with the highest chances in the mountains and deserts.
/NEW/ /Today through Sunday Afternoon/ A tranquil weekend is expected as the region remains under the influence of an upper level ridge. High-level cirrus will continue to spread E-NE from Mexico, riding the apex of the ridge.
Enhanced and persistent mid and upper level ridging associated with a blocking type pattern across the eastern CONUS will continue to support unseasonably mild and dry continues across our region for the foreseeable future. In the near term, a weak cold front will drop southward in across the area tonight then wash out into Sunday. Otherwise, an expansive area of high pressure will become established over northeastern North America this week. A weak cold front should cause a northwesterly wind shift sometime after sunset, though wind magnitudes should be under 10 kts on both sides of the front by this time.
(This evening through Sunday night) An upper level ridge extends from northern Mexico to the central Plains this afternoon. High pressure will continue to dominate producing mainly clear skies and light winds. The low temperatures the next two nights will be mainly in the 60s with highs Sunday very close to today's.
Currently a slight ridging pattern is present over the Pacific Northwest and Northern Plains. An upper level high is sitting over the Southern Plains. At the surface a high pressure is located in northern South Dakota. This high pressure is slowly moving east today and will/is creating breezy south winds on the backside. With the ridging pattern over the Northern Plains, today and Sunday will be sunny with above average highs in the 70s and lower 80s. Sunday the thermal ridge will be the strongest in the west, where temperatures will be in the upper 80s! Elsewhere will see the lower 80s.
131 PM MDT Sat Sep 27 2025 - A few locations will reach 80 degrees today and Sunday, but temperatures turn much cooler for the upcoming week.
The low levels of the atmosphere are quite dry so only some mid and high level clouds will mark its passing. Full sunshine for Sunday will result in above normal temperatures similar or just slightly cooler than Saturday. The thermal ridge will remain across the area for the first part of the work week before retrograding into the Plains.
An upper trough will lift well off to the northeast through Sunday as an upper ridge builds across the Ohio Valley.
KBYX is finally starting to get some movement as light showers are developing along a boundary southwest of the Lower Keys.
150 PM EDT Sat Sep 27 2025 Updated at 147 PM EDT Sat Sep 27 2025 - Dry air will move in behind the cold front. By tomorrow the front will push off to the NE brining cooler and dryer weather to the CWA. Temps today will range from the low to mid 80s with cooler temperatures overnight then we've seen over the past few days. This trend will continue tomorrow and into the early part of the week as high pressure and dry air settle in.
Temperatures are on track to reach the low to mid 70s in most locations. Progressing into the workweek, large scale ridging will keep temperatures above average.
Enhanced and persistent mid and upper level ridging associated with a blocking type pattern across the eastern CONUS will continue to support unseasonably mild and dry continues across our region for the foreseeable future. In the near term, a weak cold front will drop southward in across the area tonight then wash out into Sunday. Otherwise, an expansive area of high pressure will become established over northeastern North America this week. KJB Only forecast concern is a cold front/wind shift tonight. West/ southwest winds under 10kts will slowly turn west/northwest this evening, then shift northerly late this evening as a weak cold front moves across the area.
635 PM CDT Sat Sep 27 2025 - Clear skies and slightly cooler, drier air will continue through the weekend.
618 PM CDT Sat Sep 27 2025 (This evening through Sunday) Now that the cold front has moved through the region, quiet weather is expected for most of this short-term forecast period.
/Issued 1227 PM CDT Sat Sep 27 2025/ /Today through Sunday Afternoon/ A tranquil weekend is expected as the region remains under the influence of an upper level ridge. High-level cirrus will continue to spread E-NE from Mexico, riding the apex of the ridge.
Key message(s): - Drier weather for Sunday before rain chances ramp up overnight The axis of an upper level trough is forecast to remain to our west on Sunday shifting eastward through the day. Highs will probably be slightly below normal as winds should be out of the northeast through the day with increasing cloud cover aiding in keeping things cooler.
Some FG development wl lkly be seen acrs Nrn to Cntrl AR overnight Sat again, w/ Nrn terminals seeing intermittent MVFR to IFR VISBYs, while Cntrl terminals wl lkly see MVFR VISBYs at the lowest.
Some convection developed along a cloud line south of the Lower Keys earlier in the period but quickly fizzled out as they drifted into the distant Straits of Florida. Small Craft Exercise Caution headlines are in effect for the waters east of the Seven Mile Bridge.
The upper-level ridge will keep conditions warm and mostly dry through much of Sunday, with highs approximately 10 degrees above normal across the area. However, increasing southwesterly flow aloft will begin to draw moisture northward from a cut-off low centered over southern Nevada and Utah.
612 PM CDT Sat Sep 27 2025 An upper trough will lift well off to the northeast through Sunday as an upper ridge builds across the Ohio Valley.
424 PM MDT Sat Sep 27 2025 - Dry and breezy with seasonal temperatures - Near record temperatures expected tomorrow - Elevated fire weather conditions possible throughout the weekend A high pressure system remains centered of the Colorado front range but is close enough to continue to influence our weather across eastern Wyoming and western South Dakota. Water vapor analysis continues to show a closed low spinning across southern California and a long wave trough approaching the western CONUS.
This gradual pattern change will eventually lead to the eventual demise of the earlier discussed large upper low over the Southwest.
/19/ For the most part, high pressure will be in control of the weather for the forecast area through the upcoming work week, and no significant frontal passages are expected. As the tropical system moves slowly up the southeast coast, there could initially be a trough passage that corresponds with a slight uptick in rain chances in our area. But that will be followed by an increase in dry air advection in the boundary layer along with slightly cooler temperatures as well, especially by late week.
746 PM EDT Sat Sep 27 2025 High pressure dominates the weather pattern for the coming week, ensuring predominantly dry conditions other than a few isolated light showers or sprinkles tonight around the Poconos and southern Catskills.
540 PM MDT Sat Sep 27 2025 - An upper-level ridge keeps the region drier today through the weekend with temperatures warming back into the 70s and 80s. The upper level ridge will start to breakdown and start to push east tonight. This will allow some moisture to advect into the region as the upper level low near the four corners region rejoins the flow and shifts northeast. However, RH values are expected to be in the low 30's as the gusty winds occur so no fire weather products will be issued. The synoptic weather pattern for most of the week will be characterized by a broad ridge encompassing most of the central and eastern CONUS, leaving southwest flow aloft over our area.
110 AM EDT Sun Sep 28 2025 High pressure remains over New England through early in the week with dry weather and warm temperatures.