Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
but a bit cooler over NRN sections in the mid to upper 80s. lows will dip down into the 50s for most areas due to the high pressure settling into the region.
347 AM EDT Sun Aug 24 2025 - Cooler weather arrives today and persists through much of the week.
A cold front associated with a low pressure system over the Great Lakes will edge southward through tonight.
Latest WSR-88D trends At the surface, a cold front is moving southeast across the Midwest, and will bring us our long awaited relief from the heat and humidity tomorrow. Aloft, a longwave trough was quite evident across the northern United States, while the ridge of high pressure that has plagued the South since July has now shifted west, extending across the Pacific Coast and Rockies.
A cold front is rapidly exiting central Indiana this morning, taking it with it the last gasps of the prolonged warmth and especially humidity that have been hallmarks of this unpleasantly humid summer.
- Turning even cooler and less humid on Sunday. Surface analysis this afternoon shows a cold front stretching from NW Indiana to Central IL. High pressure was found over the deep south. This placed central Indiana still within the warm sector ahead of the cold front with westerly lower level flow. GOES16 shows a thin band of clouds near the cold front, stretching across the northwest half of Indiana. This along with the strong high pressure in the wake of the front will build across Central Indiana for late this evening, overnight and into Sunday. Forecast soundings tonight fail to show deep saturation, instead showing only some lower level CU saturation as the cold front passes. Clearing and subsidence along with cooler temperatures will begin to arrive amid cold air advection.
(Tonight through Monday night) Upper level low located around Ontario is forecasted to deepen and the associated trough will dig slowly through the eastern part of the CONUS.
An upper level trough will dig southward through tonight with an associated cold front moving through the area late tonight into Monday morning.
145 AM EDT Sun Aug 24 2025 - Here comes Fall! - Here comes Fall! Isolated showers and possibly a thunderstorm will attend the passage of a cold front across the southern and eastern zones late this afternoon and evening. The big story is still the trend towards much cooler temperatures as persistent upper troughing across eastern Canada and the NE CONUS over the next 10 days will mean a continued northwest flow of Canadian air masses, along with occasional chances for showers from cold front passages and lake/diurnal enhanced showers.
Another beautiful day today as high pressure becomes more entrenched across the area as H5 cyclonic flow reinforces the drier air. Tonight, clouds should clear as high pressure reigns supreme. While this are cold temperatures for this time of year, they still look to be 4 to 6 degrees above record lows which are mainly in the low 40s. Towards the end of the period, the upper level trof begins to flatten as return flow brings warmer and more moist air into the area.
High pressure remains centered over the Four Corners, leaving northern Arizona to see continuous days of precipitation. Essentially, the area of high pressure that has been centered over the Four Corners will open up by mid-week. This will still leave a ridge over much of the Southwest and keep a persistent flow of moisture funneling into Arizona.
Upper level high is starting to break down a little but still centered across the Rockies and still bringing northeast flow aloft to the area.
The cooler air moving in has also provided for saturation in parts of the atmosphere which has provided for cloud cover.
Upper ridging remains anchored in the western US with troughing positioned over the Upper Midwest states. At the surface, a cold front is stretched from roughly Pontiac southwestward toward Quincy as of 2 pm. After the front moves through later this evening, cool and relatively dry conditions will settle in for the upcoming week as surface ridging overspreads the region.
1232 AM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025 An unsettled pattern will continue over Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley into the first part of the workweek as mid/upper level troughing continues. Generally favorable marine conditions will prevail on the waters off the lower Texas coast.
The primary trough is centered up in eastern Ontario, but the associated cold front drapes all the way down into the region. The front is currently just south of the MO Bootheel and will slide into the TN Valley later this morning as a weak secondary trough in the southern Appalachians slides eastward. Cooler air will follow, allowing a wonderful Fall night tonight! If you are excited for that, keep reading as more is on the way this week.
Another beautiful day today as high pressure becomes more entrenched across the area as H5 cyclonic flow reinforces the drier air. Tonight, clouds should clear as high pressure reigns supreme. While this are cold temperatures for this time of year, they still look to be 4 to 6 degrees above record lows which are mainly in the low 40s.
- A cold front will swing through the Mid-South Sunday night into Monday and deliver our first taste of fall weather.
- Temperatures look to remain cooler than normal over the next 7 days with a slow warming trend.
Remaining mostly dry and cool over the next several days as the northwest flow persists aloft and Canadian high pressure ridging at the surface.
Northwesterly flow is found over the northern Plains today, stuck as we are between a stacked Hudson Bay Low to the northeast and an upper level high lingering across the desert southwest. At the surface, high pressure is bleeding in across western North Dakota, helping to keep conditions across the forecast area dry. Otherwise a much cooler airmass remains in place over North Dakota today, with high temperatures forecast in the mid 60s to lower 70s. Similar clear, calm, and dry conditions are anticipated Sunday, with highs forecast in the lower 60s to lower 70s. With high pressure continuing to creep south and eastward tonight, temperatures Sunday and Monday morning are expected to well below seasonable normals by around 10 degrees or more.
An unsettled pattern will continue over Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley into the first part of the workweek as mid/upper level troughing continues. Generally favorable marine conditions will prevail on the waters off the lower Texas coast.
Cool Canadian-origin high pressure will continue to slowly make inroads into the Upper Midwest early this week. However, the slow-to-exit upper level low near Hudson Bay will exert one last day of influence over MN/WI today.
Temperatures were cooler than forecast today. Temperatures could be a few degrees cooler than forecast due to the clouds and smoke on Sunday.
By the middle of the week, an upper/mid level trough will be digging into the southeastern US, pushing a weak frontal boundary into the Florida Peninsula and stalling out through the end of the week. This pattern will also favor scattered to numerous showers and storms continuing to develop each day while afternoon temperatures moderate back up into the low to mid 90s. A weak cold front will push south into the waters by mid week, with winds turning to northerly and northeasterly behind the front, but generally remaining less than headline criteria outside of daily thunderstorms.
Mid level ridging will gradually shift over the region over the next couple of days. Seasonal temperatures are expected with highs in the upper 90s to around 100 west and in the lower to mid 90s east.
Heat indices will remain in the lower 100s. Tranquil and warm conditions will continue into Sunday morning with light variable winds and low temperatures in the lower to mid 70s inland and the upper 70s to lower 80s along and near the coasts. A drier weather pattern will continue Sunday and Monday as the mid level high pressure that was anchored over the Four Corners last week begins to move south-southeastward into New Mexico and increases our local mid level heights to around 592 dams.
Scattered showers/thunderstorms are possible on Monday ahead of a cold front. An upper level trough and cold front track across the Great Lakes region today resulting in southwesterly flow aloft across southern New England. Conditions will be mainly dry today with high pressure in place.
A cold front bisecting the forecast area at this time will continue to track eastward this afternoon, exiting the southeast CWA by sunset. A notably cooler airmass will advect over the area tonight through Monday, with 850 hPa temps as low as 8C on Sunday and 5C on Monday. A well-defined trough currently over central Saskatchewan is progged to quickly track southeast across the western Great Lakes on Sunday. The area will remain under the southwest periphery of a longwave trough drifting from eastern Ontario to across Quebec early to midweek.
An expansive upper trough and region of cyclonic flow extends from the northern plains and across the Great Lakes this morning. High pressure will spread south from the plains and Midwest today offering continued dry conditions and cooler temperatures.
(Today through Monday) Early morning analysis shows a stalled surface front across northern FL and stretching along the SE US coast, with several weak areas of low pressure along the boundary. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will again peak during the afternoon and early evening hours, with the highest chances north of Alligator Alley. High temps on Monday will range from the low to mid 90s.
Temperatures as of 3 AM CDT ranged from the lower 40s to mid 540s across western and central ND. It's during this timeframe that the upper level low over Ontario moves east and upper level ridging over the Western U. Basically the latest clusters are favoring (75% vs 25%) a warmer and drier end of the work week compared to a cooler and wetter end of the work week. The cooler/wetter solution is by no means a washout, and the warmer/dryer solution is also not a scorcher.
320 AM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025 - Cooler temperatures and showers will linger through tonight. This feature is still able to pivot some deep moisture profiles over the region with saturation through the low and mid levels. Region wide temperatures will be a tad cooler then yesterday with highs in the upper 50s and low 60s.
1222 AM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025 - Cooler temperatures and showers will linger through Sunday night.
and temps to drop down to the low 60s to low 70s for lows this Sat morning. AR will remain on the ERN periphery of the upper ridge to the west. A new cold front will also drop south into the state with this transition in upper flow. The drier/cooler air will settle in. A cold front will drop south through the state into this afternoon/evening.
(Today through Monday) We'll have one more day of scattered afternoon thunderstorms today as the main trough shifts to our east. A cold front is expected to push southward through Central AL tonight after midnight, reaching the Gulf Coast by the early afternoon.
One of the usually colder NDAWN sites has dropped into the lower 30s. Temperatures as of 3 AM CDT ranged from the lower 40s to mid 540s across western and central ND. It's during this timeframe that the upper level low over Ontario moves east and upper level ridging over the Western U. Basically the latest clusters are favoring (75% vs 25%) a warmer and drier end of the work week compared to a cooler and wetter end of the work week. The cooler/wetter solution is by no means a washout, and the warmer/dryer solution is also not a scorcher.
but a bit cooler over NRN sections in the mid to upper 80s. lows will dip down into the 50s for most areas due to the high pressure settling into the region. (12Z TAFS) A cold front is moving through the state this Sun.
944 AM EDT Sun Aug 24 2025 - A very pleasant final week of climatological summer, with below normal temperatures and low humidity Surface analysis late this morning shows high pressure over the Dakotas with a ridge axis extending SE to MO/IL and Indiana. Yesterdays cold front had departed to the east. A cold front is rapidly exiting central Indiana this morning, taking it with it the last gasps of the prolonged warmth and especially humidity that have been hallmarks of this unpleasantly humid summer.
This high will slowly move east and be in centeral/eastern ND 12z Mon and then high pressure center drops southeast in southwest MN. With slightly warmer temps aloft and a few degrees cooler at the sfc, the development of CU with afternoon heating while it will occur, shouldnt be enough to deviate from a partly cloudy forecast today. Focus will be on low temps tonight under high pressure in E ND and also NW MN where high isnt directly overhead but skies will be clear and winds will decouple and become light. Used cooler than NBM guidance with lows at the 75th percentile (or 25 pct chance) which gives lows 36-39 in NW MN away from any bodies of water and outside of the warmer concrete, buildings in towns.
631 AM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025 An upper level trough will dig southward through tonight with an associated cold front moving through the area late tonight into Monday morning.
611 AM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025 (Today through Monday) We'll have one more day of scattered afternoon thunderstorms today as the main trough shifts to our east. A cold front is expected to push southward through Central AL late this afternoon/tonight, reaching the Gulf Coast by the early afternoon Monday.
838 AM EDT Sun Aug 24 2025 Isolated showers and storms are possible primarily east of Pittsburgh on Sunday as a cold front passes through the region. KEY MESSAGES: - Scattered showers/storms associated with a cold front - Last day of 80s through at least mid-week --------------------------------------------------------------- Mid-level height falls continue today as a seasonably anomalous closed upper low hovers well off to our north in Canada and its longwave trough rotates through.
731 AM EDT Sun Aug 24 2025 (Today through Monday) Early morning analysis shows a stalled surface front across northern FL and stretching along the SE US coast, with several weak areas of low pressure along the boundary. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will again peak during the afternoon and early evening hours, with the highest chances north of Alligator Alley. High temps on Monday will range from the low to mid 90s.
622 AM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025 (Tonight through Monday night) Upper level low located around Ontario is forecasted to deepen and the associated trough will dig slowly through the eastern part of the CONUS.
549 AM EDT Sun Aug 24 2025 - Cooler weather arrives today and persists through much of the week.
This high will slowly move east and be in central/eastern ND 12z Mon and then high pressure center drops southeast in southwest MN. With slightly warmer temps aloft and a few degrees cooler at the sfc, the development of CU with afternoon heating while it will occur, shouldn't be enough to deviate from a partly cloudy forecast today. Focus will be on low temps tonight under high pressure in E ND and also NW MN where high isnt directly overhead but skies will be clear and winds will decouple and become light. Used cooler than NBM guidance with lows at the 75th percentile (or 25 pct chance) which gives lows 36-39 in NW MN away from any bodies of water and outside of the warmer concrete, buildings in towns.
Then, drier and cooler air pushes into the region for the rest of the forecast period following the passage of a cold front. Key Message(s): - Generally dry across the region today with warmer temperatures. Today and Tonight: Upper trough over the Southeast is expected to phase with a larger scale trough digging into the region from the Upper Midwest today into tonight. As the low moves along the coast, some drier air gets filtered into the forecast area today. Some shower/storm activity associated with this low could result in some showers or storms reaching the far eastern Midlands this afternoon. Showers or storms are also possible for the far western Midlands this evening as the upper trough approaches the region. Despite the trough moving toward the region, we're expected to see some breaks in the clouds and temperatures closer to normal.
635 AM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025 A cold front associated with a low pressure system over the Great Lakes will edge southward through tonight.
618 AM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025 An unsettled pattern will continue over Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley into the first part of the workweek as mid/upper level troughing continues. Generally favorable marine conditions will prevail on the waters off the lower Texas coast.
941 AM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025 - Cooler temperatures and showers will linger through tonight. This feature is still able to pivot some deep moisture profiles over the region with saturation through the low and mid levels. Region wide temperatures will be a tad cooler then yesterday with highs in the upper 50s and low 60s.
622 AM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025 - Cooler temperatures and showers will linger through tonight. This feature is still able to pivot some deep moisture profiles over the region with saturation through the low and mid levels. Region wide temperatures will be a tad cooler then yesterday with highs in the upper 50s and low 60s.
The surface cold front is not far behind in middle TN into northern MS and will also sweep through the area through the afternoon. High temperatures will reach the upper 80s to around 90 along and west of I-65, with lower to middle 80s further east in valleys and upper 70s atop the higher plateau areas.
326 PM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025 Forecast discussion for routine afternoon forecast issuance - First glimpse of early fall expected early this week with cooler temperatures.
Heat indices will remain in the lower 100s. High pressure building over the Desert Southwest today will expand over Texas through the day tomorrow leading to continued drier conditions.
The cold front and showers have shifted southeast as expected. The surface cold front is not far behind in middle TN into northern MS and will also sweep through the area through the afternoon. High temperatures will reach the upper 80s to around 90 along and west of I-65, with lower to middle 80s further east in valleys and upper 70s atop the higher plateau areas.
- Cool and breezy through mid week, then gradually warmer. With high pressure building in tomorrow night, look for lows to fall into the low to mid 40s.
(Now through Monday Night) Our region remains under dry northwesterly flow aloft as a broad scale trough resides over the eastern half of the country. Although we are under a dry northwesterly flow, with the lower POPs the temperatures will be on the warmer side with still some relatively higher heights around and offshore flow supporting the warmer conditions.
Another frontal boundary begins to push over the area by mid week as an upper level trough digs into the southeast.
Given the current orientation of the main steering flow on the periphery of the high, the majority of the precipitation should be confined to areas well north of I-40 in the northern combined Panhandles.
This afternoon, a nearly stationary upper level low was parked over Ontario, with cyclonic flow over the Dakotas in between the low and an upper high over the Four Corners region. For the first half of the work week, temperatures will warm notably as upper ridging begins to build across the western and into the central CONUS.
This will keep the region cooler than average with scattered to broken daytime cumulus, although the sprinkles we saw yesterday afternoon look like they will stay to the east.
Latest BUFKIT soundings continue to show dry air in the low levels which should keep things dry to maybe an isolated chance for a sprinkle. Winds will go light and variable tonight as surface ridging slides into the area. Lows will again be on the cold side but just a bit warmer than Sunday's lows in the 40s to up to about 50F.
214 PM EDT Sun Aug 24 2025 An approaching cold front will bring some showers and thunderstorms through tonight. The front will move east of the region Monday, followed by much cooler temperatures for much of the upcoming week.
1212 PM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025 An upper level trough will dig southward through tonight with an associated cold front moving through the area late tonight into Monday morning.
Temps climbing slowly through the low 60s. This high will slowly move east and be in central/eastern ND 12z Mon and then high pressure center drops southeast in southwest MN. With slightly warmer temps aloft and a few degrees cooler at the sfc, the development of CU with afternoon heating while it will occur, shouldn't be enough to deviate from a partly cloudy forecast today. Focus will be on low temps tonight under high pressure in E ND and also NW MN where high isnt directly overhead but skies will be clear and winds will decouple and become light. Used cooler than NBM guidance with lows at the 75th percentile (or 25 pct chance) which gives lows 36-39 in NW MN away from any bodies of water and outside of the warmer concrete, buildings in towns.
1151 AM EDT Sun Aug 24 2025 - A very pleasant final week of climatological summer, with below normal temperatures and low humidity Surface analysis late this morning shows high pressure over the Dakotas with a ridge axis extending SE to MO/IL and Indiana. Yesterdays cold front had departed to the east. A cold front is rapidly exiting central Indiana this morning, taking it with it the last gasps of the prolonged warmth and especially humidity that have been hallmarks of this unpleasantly humid summer.
(This evening through Monday) For tonight and Monday, an upper level ridge will become more elongated and extend from Texas northwest to the Four Corners area, and then north into western Wyoming. Expect highs Monday to be a little warmer than today and in the mid to upper 90s. This to occur with 850mb thermal ridge expanding east into our area, ahead of an approaching cold front from the Red River. (Monday night through next Sunday) Rainfall potential midweek is decreasing, with models indicating upper ridging in control and drier conditions.
High pressure remains centered over the Four Corners, leaving northern Arizona to see continuous days of precipitation.
- An approaching cold front will bring increasing rain chances and eventually cooler air into North Texas late Monday through the rest of this upcoming week. /NEW/ /Today through Monday Afternoon/ The region continues to find itself wedged between the mid-level high to our west and the mid-level trough to our east/northeast. /NEW/ /Monday Evening Onward/ The aforementioned cold front will move through North Texas late Monday, with scattered showers and storms expected to continually develop near/along the frontal boundary.
206 PM EDT Sun Aug 24 2025 - Cooler weather ahead with highs mid 60s to low 70s Mon-Tue.
The cold front has passed through, turning our winds northerly and clearing the skies over Middle Tennessee. Today will be the last day for a bit that the highs reach 90 degrees in some areas. Expect a cooler night with lows in the 50s and 60s.
The 500mb pattern will feature troughing across the eastern CONUS through the week, place our region in northwest flow.
Highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s are on track, with dew point values in the lower 50s.
Mid to upper level ridging remains dominant in the southwestern U. as a closed upper low continues its track to the east just south of the Hudson Bay Region. For the rest of today, highs for will mostly range in the 70s with a few locations near central MO approaching the low 80s. A few areas near southeastern KS and west central MO could stay in the low 70s with increased cloud coverage from potential morning convection hindering the effects of daytime heating.
Under strong insolation today temperatures will top out slightly warmer than normal. A dry cold front will move into the northern zones by this evening. /22/ A cold front associated with a low pressure system over the Great Lakes will edge southward through tonight.