Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
446 AM CDT Thu Jul 24 2025 - Cooler air fills in behind a cold front over the next two days, bringing temporary relief from the heat.
Dew point temperatures that initially started in the mid 60s are now climbing into the low 70s, especially across the west and south. This will allow the northern periphery of the mid level ridge to flatten and a surface cold front to push south into the southern Great Lakes by 00Z. High temperatures are expected to top out in the lower 90s. These hot temperatures combined with surface dew points in the lower and middle 70s will result in heat indices between 100 and 105. In the warm sector temperatures will remain very warm tonight with lows in the lower and middle 70s. Temperatures look to reach highs from the upper 80s northwest to the lower 90s southeast. Some relief may come mid week, following a disturbance that might finally pull some cooler/drier continental air in behind it.
A ridge is located in the south eastern part of CONUS and will slowly extend westward going through the beginning of the work week.
636 AM EDT Thu Jul 24 2025 High pressure will remain over the region providing dry weather through Tonight. Tranquil weather today thanks to high pressure continuing to hold in place across the Mid-Atlantic region. High pressure will slide east into the Atlantic tonight, but will remain dry areawide with closest rain potential along the Carolina coastline. A large upper level ridge will propagate over the southeastern CONUS and increase heights over the Mid-Atlantic to bring unseasonably warm temperatures. High temperatures over the next few days will steadily increase into the 80s and 90s region-wide which will be about 5-10 degrees warmer than average. The heat index could be as high as between 80-95 to the west of the Blue Ridge.
A cold front swept through the region last night, bringing gusty winds and abundant rainfall. Hydro concerns will linger into Friday as models indicate this boundary will lift north as a warm front, as a short wave pushes in from the southwest. Temperatures will be noticeably cooler today and tomorrow, with highs in the low to mid 80s. The ridge will build back in this weekend, brining the potential for drier weather and another round of intense heat.
(Today and Tonight) The mid/upper ridge will remain centered slightly to the east today, allowing for some low chance PoPs across the western portions of the forecast area through this morning and afternoon.
534 AM MDT Thu Jul 24 2025 - Today will be a little warmer, with a significant increase in shower and thunderstorm coverage in the wake of a cold frontal passage.
- Another dome of high pressure will settle over the area Friday and beyond, lowering rain chances and increasing temperatures and heat indices. A mid-level trough axis crosses the FL peninsula from east to west while a weak wave of low pressure continues westward across the northern Gulf away from the area. Dome of high pressure over the Carolina coast on Fri (596dm) builds over FL and strengthens to 598dm over GA Sun as it gradually retrogrades westward to the lower MS Valley. In addition, the low level ridge axis will be near or over central FL this weekend producing light and variable wind over the interior and only a weak sea breeze along the coast of 5-10 mph. Even the immediate coast will reach the lower 90s.
One more day of dry conditions with 40-60 percent chances for rain showers and thunderstorms tomorrow morning and afternoon ahead of an approaching cold front. With the combination of high temperatures in the low 90s and dew point temperatures ranging in the upper 60s to low 70s in valley locations, feels-like temperatures range between 95 and 98 degrees for this afternoon. An approaching low pressure system off the Great Lakes region arrives during the morning hours tomorrow for locations north and west of Albany. This low is forecasted to move southward across eastern New York and western New England bringing 40 to 60 percent chances for morning and afternoon rain showers and thunderstorms tomorrow ahead of it.
639 AM CDT Thu Jul 24 2025 (Tonight through Friday night) Inverted trough began to bring tropical moisture into the area in the form of convective storms this afternoon, mainly across coastal MS and portions of LA south of I-10. 4 inches and this will result in daytime PoPs in the 80-90+ range Thursday and Friday with the highest values south of I-10. Cloud cover and rain should keep the daytime high temperatures in the low 90s and Heat Index values will remain below the threshold for headlines.
This will allow the northern periphery of the mid level ridge to flatten and a surface cold front to push south into the southern Great Lakes by 00Z. High temperatures are expected to top out in the lower 90s. These hot temperatures combined with surface dew points in the lower and middle 70s will result in heat indices between 100 and 105. In the warm sector temperatures will remain very warm tonight with lows in the lower and middle 70s. Temperatures look to reach highs from the upper 80s northwest to the lower 90s southeast. Some relief may come mid week, following a disturbance that might finally pull some cooler/drier continental air in behind it.
627 AM EDT Thu Jul 24 2025 High pressure will remain in control today, which will bring sunny and hot conditions. A cold front will move through the region on Friday, which will bring scattered showers and thunderstorms.
- Cooler temperatures and drier weather will dive south for the latter half of the week. A small ridge will set up over the Northland today, with warm and humid conditions continuing and mostly sunny skies.
Today, seasonal heat returns to the CWA with highs reaching the low to mid 90's. The most agressive model seems to be the 00Z HiResW ARW, which shows scattered thunderstorm moving into the northwest combined Panhandles off the high terrain.
Currently in the upper levels, broad ridging is holding across the southeastern US as an inverted trough slips west from the Caribbean into the southern Gulf. At the surface, the weak trough that passed over Florida earlier this week is slowly sliding west through the central Gulf, while Atlantic ridging builds into northern Florida from the east. The Atlantic low level ridge will continue to build into Florida, pulling in a drier airmass late Friday through the weekend.
(Today and tonight) A split flow regime is currently situated around a closed low over California. The closed low will remain nearly stationary for the forecast period. A TUTT low, located over western Oklahoma, will phase with an incoming trough sliding east across southern Canada. Meanwhile, a ridge located over the Great Lakes will continue to build and move east. A high pressure system remains entrenched over the southeastern US.
Heat ramps up today moving 1 day past the astronomical peak of the "Dog Days of Summer" - fcst max temps are +3-8F warmer than yesterday in the 85-90F range in most locations. A stray airmass/terrain induced thundershower is possible beneath the 594+dm upper level ridge this afteroon, but odds favor a continuation of dry wx across the vast majority of CPA due to warm temps aloft/effective capping inversion. A cold front pressing southeastward from the Lower Great Lakes favors an increase in precip probs over the far NW zones late Thu night into early Friday (06-12Z). Max POPs early on Friday are initially focused across the northern tier or in closest proximity to the aforementioned cold front. Seasonably high boundary-layer moisture content advecting ahead of the cold front should contribute to moderate mixed-layer CAPE with daytime heating.
643 AM CDT Thu Jul 24 2025 - Cooler air fills in behind a cold front over the next two days, bringing temporary relief from the heat.
- A bit warmer on Friday, with a chance for storms by evening over Central and Southwest MT.
Dewpoints are currently in the lower to mid 70s. This will allow temperature to warm across the area with high temperatures forecast to range from the lower 80s northwest of Cedar Rapids to the upper 80s to lower east of a line from Fairfield to the Quad Cities to Sterling Rockfalls. Rainfall rates of 1 to 2 inches per hour are posssible with the highest rates possible south of a Fairfield to Burlington to Galesburg line.
-Cooler and drier with another round of Canadian wildfire smoke into Friday.
Most of this morning's thunderstorms have been short lived and weak, but more recent cells have found more success in the deep Gulf waters north of the Lower Keys extending out to T Tower. The Tropical Upper Tropospheric Trough (TUTT), along with its northerly displaced surface reflection, are currently in the Gulf waters west of Florida and the Florida Keys with a trajectory aimed towards the western Gulf coastline. While there is a quick veer in the lower levels near 900 mb, winds back above 550 mb making it difficult to sustain deep convective modes. Outside of convection, expect gentle to moderate east to southeasterly breezes, becoming moderate to fresh tonight through Friday night as Atlantic ridging builds and shifts west closer to Florida.
Temperatures will only drop down into the low/mid 70s tonight.
The area of low pressure generating this activity will continue its slow westward progression over the next day or two, as strong upper ridging begins to build eastward from Florida. As the low remains in the vicinity of the area, southerly flow will persist through the vertical column, allowing an abundance of moisture to continuously filter into the region. This, along with the weak waves rotating around the northern side of the low will keep numerous to widespread showers/storms in the forecast through Friday. As the aforementioned ridge builds eastward over the weekend, rain chances will taper off while the heat increases.
(Friday night through next Thursday) This weekend, an inverted trough/upper level disturbance will move ashore the Texas coast.
1228 PM CDT Thu Jul 24 2025 - Cooler air fills in behind a cold front over the next two days, bringing temporary relief from the heat.
Considering the high moisture content of the air, locally heavy rainfall will be possible in most areas this afternoon, but radar shows these storms to be progressing from east to west, limiting the flood threat.
Ridging aloft continues to influence the weather across the region with a hot and humid airmass remaining in place. The upper ridge expands westward over the weekend.
A pattern more typical for early June has taken shape, with an area of negative midlevel height anomalies centered along the Central CA Coast, dry southwesterly flow over much of the Southwest US, and high pressure displaced further east than usual. With environmental moisture this sparse, chances for rain, even over the highest peaks across eastern/southeastern AZ will be inhibited.
1119 AM EDT Thu Jul 24 2025 High pressure brings a stretch of very hot and humid weather. High pressure will strengthen over the southeast U. Through the weekend, high pressure will stay locked over the Southeast U.
336 PM EDT Thu Jul 24 2025 * Heat Advisory this afternoon/evening over all of southern Indiana and part of central Kentucky * Mainly dry conditions continue with isolated afternoon/evening convection possible Temperatures are currently in the upper 80s and low 90s, on track to reach the low-to-mid 90s. As a trough swings through the southern Great Lakes this afternoon and evening, this will bring some weak lift to northern Kentucky and southern Indiana. Despite these conditions, ridging over the region will keep overnight lows quite warm in the mid-to- upper 70s over most of the area. On Friday, as troughing over the southern Great Lakes continues to push east, a cold front will sink south into central Indiana.
- Meteorological Overview: A broad, overall lower amplitude upper level ridge will set up across the eastern half of the CONUS over much of the upcoming week. The ridge well to the east is just beginning to build today, which is resulting in a more zonal flow aloft across the Northern Rockies. Flow becomes increasingly southwesterly Friday across the Northern Rockies, with a compact upstream upper trough/low over CA shedding some vorticity toward Montana Friday afternoon and evening. The overall setup does not change much this weekend, though flow aloft does increase in magnitude, with slightly cooler temperatures aloft as well.
1221 PM EDT Thu Jul 24 2025 High pressure brings a stretch of very hot and humid weather. High pressure will strengthen over the southeast U. Through the weekend, high pressure will stay locked over the Southeast U.
- As an offshore low pressure system moves inland today, storms that develop over the mountains will generally move to the northwest, with the majority of thunderstorm activity occurring outside of interior Northern California today. - On Friday, as the low moves further south, storm motion over the mountains will be largely southeasterly over the Coastal Range, allowing for a 15-20% chance of isolated thunderstorms in the northern Sacramento Valley.
Daily highs in the lower to middle 90s, with maximum afternoon heat index values around 100 to 105+.
The highest values early this afternoon were across the far east-central to southeast counties, hovering in the low to mid 90s.
Water vapor imagery shows weak ridging across the region, with a wave crossing Utah into SW WY.
Despite the higher temps, dewpoints should mix out enough during the afternoon to prevent any heat headlines from being needed.
1118 AM EDT Thu Jul 24 2025 High pressure will remain over the region providing dry weather through Tonight. High pressure will slide east into the Atlantic tonight, but will remain dry areawide with closest rain potential along the Carolina coastline. A large upper level ridge will propagate over the southeastern CONUS and increase heights over the Mid-Atlantic to bring unseasonably warm temperatures. High temperatures over the next few days will steadily increase into the 80s and 90s region-wide which will be about 5-10 degrees warmer than average. The heat index could be as high as between 80-95 to the west of the Blue Ridge.
An upper level trough remains off the CA coast this morning with mid level moisture on satellite over northern NV and UT.
219 PM MDT Thu Jul 24 2025 KEY MESSAGES: - Drier and warmer weather expected today through Friday mid-day. It is a near continual battle between either weak high pressure ridging from the south or a moist unsettled flow from the Pacific Ocean from the west or southwest setting off occasional rounds of showers and thunderstorms. Today through Friday morning the weak ridge of high pressure will prevail, bringing average to warmer than average temperatures for most locations both day and night. Later on Friday, the flow aloft turns more from the WSW, then later through the weekend, from the SW as an upper trough of low pressure digs along the Pacific Coast.
206 PM EDT Thu Jul 24 2025 Today, the moisture in the atmosphere remains ample due to the broad ridging across Florida while an inverted trough meanders into the southern Gulf; this set up brings forth deep moisture from the south. This happens as the Atlantic low level ridge establishes itself well into Florida. Then, the weekend expects drier air with lower PoPs and higher temperatures in the mid-90s from stacked ridging.
1150 AM MDT Thu Jul 24 2025 - Today will be a little warmer, with a significant increase in shower and thunderstorm coverage in the wake of a cold frontal passage.
225 PM EDT Thu Jul 24 2025 High pressure will remain over the region providing dry weather through tonight.
1257 PM CDT Thu Jul 24 2025 (Rest of Today and Tonight) The broad mid and upper level ridge that has been anchored across the region will shift westward today, allowing for a very slight break in the heat. Highs this afternoon will be in the lower 90s but with the lingering high dewpoints, heat index values will range from 95-104 degrees. As for tonight, we will have mostly clear skies with warm overnight lows in the low to mid 70s.
(Rest of Today and Tonight) The broad mid and upper level ridge that has been anchored across the region will shift westward today, allowing for a very slight break in the heat. Highs this afternoon will be in the lower 90s but with the lingering high dewpoints, heat index values will range from 95-104 degrees. As for tonight, we will have mostly clear skies with warm overnight lows in the low to mid 70s.
Warmer, dry, and breezy conditions set in through this weekend. A cutoff low was ejected from a trough over the Pacific northwest, and is currently sitting of the coast of California.
(This evening through Friday) An impressive mid/upper level monsoonal moisture plume remains in place over NM and West TX early this afternoon within south- southwesterly flow aloft on the western edge of broad upper ridging centered over the SE CONUS. At the surface, a diffuse trough and associated wind shift is evident at 17z stretching from the SW South Plains into the SE TX Panhandle, with weak northerly surface flow to the north of this boundary and stronger southwesterly flow present elsewhere. A majority of models indicate rich surface moisture remaining in place, though the monsoonal moisture plume will thin substantially and large scale subsidence will increase in response to an expansion of ridging aloft.
718 PM EDT Thu Jul 24 2025 High pressure brings a stretch of very hot and humid weather. High pressure will strengthen over the southeast U. Through the weekend, high pressure will stay locked over the Southeast U.
/Issued 136 PM MDT Thu Jul 24 2025/ - Meteorological Overview: A broad, overall lower amplitude upper level ridge will set up across the eastern half of the CONUS over much of the upcoming week. The ridge well to the east is just beginning to build today, which is resulting in a more zonal flow aloft across the Northern Rockies. Flow becomes increasingly southwesterly Friday across the Northern Rockies, with a compact upstream upper trough/low over CA shedding some vorticity toward Montana Friday afternoon and evening. The overall setup does not change much this weekend, though flow aloft does increase in magnitude, with slightly cooler temperatures aloft as well.
Temperatures aloft are slightly cooler than yesterday as well, so expect slightly larger hail growth potential, with hail up to 1" in diameter possible in the stronger storms. Things begin to dry out Friday, as a broad upper level ridge over the southeastern CONUS and an upper level low over the west puts Colorado under broad southwesterly flow aloft.
High pressure east of Florida will build over the forecast area tonight and Friday. Today, the moisture in the atmosphere remains ample due to the broad ridging across Florida while an inverted trough meanders into the southern Gulf; this set up brings forth deep moisture from the south. This happens as the Atlantic low level ridge establishes itself well into Florida. Then, the weekend expects drier air with lower PoPs and higher temperatures in the mid-90s from stacked ridging.
An upper-level composite analysis this evening reveals a robust deep layer mean anticyclone centered over the western North Atlantic off the Carolinas, with am amplifying ridge extending southward over the Florida Peninsula, Bahamas, and Cuba. However, Small Craft Should Exercise Caution for increasing winds over the Straits of Florida and Hawk Channel overnight as east to southeast breezes freshen south of an approaching high pressure cell.
207 PM PDT Thu Jul 24 2025 - Warm with breezy winds Thursday and Friday, then slightly cooler over the weekend.
349 PM PDT Thu Jul 24 2025 - Warm with breezy winds Thursday and Friday, then slightly cooler over the weekend.
* Heat Advisory this afternoon/evening over all of southern Indiana and part of central Kentucky * Mainly dry conditions continue with isolated afternoon/evening convection possible Temperatures are currently in the upper 80s and low 90s, on track to reach the low-to-mid 90s. As a trough swings through the southern Great Lakes this afternoon and evening, this will bring some weak lift to northern Kentucky and southern Indiana. Despite these conditions, ridging over the region will keep overnight lows quite warm in the mid-to- upper 70s over most of the area. On Friday, as troughing over the southern Great Lakes continues to push east, a cold front will sink south into central Indiana.
- Slightly cooler temperatures expected for the weekend, with a low chance for showers and thunderstorms in the southern parts of the area. (Friday night through next Thursday) This weekend, an inverted trough/upper level disturbance will move ashore the Texas coast.
811 PM EDT Thu Jul 24 2025 High pressure brings a stretch of very hot and humid weather. High pressure will strengthen over the southeast U. Through the weekend, high pressure will stay locked over the Southeast U.
- Slightly cooler temperatures expected for the weekend, with a low chance for showers and thunderstorms in the southeastern parts of the area.
Across our part of the country, broad southwesterly mid-level flow continues much as it has the pas several days with a borderline cut- off low across NORCAL and a stout dome of high pressure in the southeast.
(Friday through Saturday night) High pressure both near the surface and aloft starts to build in from the east throughout Friday and into Saturday, with the overall trends being a lowering chances for rain and an upward trend in temps. Friday will be a transitional day of sorts as ridging builds in, with a south to southeasterly wind and just enough layer moisture resulting in chances for showers and t'storms generally in the 20 to 50% range, and mainly west of about the I-95 corridor. Temps rise into the mid 90s, and combined with dew points in the low to mid 90s will flirt with heat advisory criteria. Flow lightens a bit on Saturday as stacked high pressure "dome" locates itself almost directly over our area.
Water vapor imagery shows weak ridging across the region, with a wave crossing Utah into SW WY. Small scale upper ridging will push into the northern High Plains Friday into Saturday, with warm air advecting in. Then the weekend will be much warmer as SW flow brings a hotter/drier airmass.
NHC has maintained a 10% chance of tropical cyclone development for the system over the central Gulf.
Deep southwesterly flow will continue across the region today, squeezed between a ridge to the east and a trough to the west. First, heavy wildfire smoke from the Dragon Bravo and White Sage Fires in Arizona will continue to impact southeastern Utah, with the highest concentration of smoke across far eastern portions of the Grand Staircase, through much of the Glen Canyon area and portions of western Canyonlands.
Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are ongoing across the higher terrain, particularly in the San Juans and along the Divide. High pressure situated well to the east and a weak upper level low over California will keep southwesterly flow over eastern Utah and the Western Slope. Upper level support for the low will start approaching the area during the day Friday as a 65kt jet streak and with deeper mixing expected, some stronger winds will mix to the surface.
1039 PM PDT Thu Jul 24 2025 - Warm and breezy Friday, then slightly cooler over the weekend.
- Slightly cooler temperatures expected for the weekend, with a low chance for showers and thunderstorms in the southern parts of the area.
The low moves to the east Saturday, bringing most mid-level moisture with it.
Temperatures aloft are slightly cooler than yesterday as well, so expect slightly larger hail growth potential, with hail up to 1" in diameter possible in the stronger storms. Things begin to dry out Friday, as a broad upper level ridge over the southeastern CONUS and an upper level low over the west puts Colorado under broad southwesterly flow aloft. By Saturday, hot and dry conditions will be in place as 700 mb temperatures warm to 20C under the persistent ridge and PWAT values drop to near 65-75% of normal across the forecast area.