Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A persistent ridge of high pressure will hold over the Desert Southwest, providing dry conditions and above normal temperatures for most of our forecast area going into the New Year. A disturbance riding over the ridge today will bring gusty winds to portions of Inyo, San Bernardino, and Esmeralda counties.
333 AM CST Sun Dec 29 2024 - Areas of Dense Freezing Fog this morning. Excessive melting yesterday and cold temperatures overnight have led to some slick roads this morning - Another round of Dense Freezing Fog possible tonight.
* Cooler air returns to the region Monday night and remains across the region the remainder of the week.
Drier air will filter into the area in the wake of this line, as an upper trough swings through the southeastern CONUS. A cold front, trailing southward from its parent low over the Great Lakes, will move eastward today, exiting the area by this afternoon.
A cold front will bring cooler temperatures back to the Midsouth Monday night.
(Today through Monday Night) Even with the passage of the cold front, light winds/wet grounds and mostly clear skies are making for favorable conditions for patchy to dense fog this morning. But as this cooler/drier air mass continues to filter in from the north, visibilites could bounce around a bit (from 1/4 to 1 mile) before finally clearing later this morning. Not too sure that the visibilities will fall into Dense Fog Advisory criteria at this time given the lower dewpoints. But this next system will be dragging a second cold front into/across the region Mon night. So, Mon highs in the lower to mid 70s will be falling back into the 40s to lower 50s by Mon night.
There is a weak response, though a response none the less, as a weak surface warm front lifts northward.
Relatively warm and muggy conditions are in place with temperatures in the mid 70s and dew points in the lower 70s. Through the first half of the week the long wave trough will remain anchored across the eastern United States. The low is expected to lift northward today, taking with it both the convection and the fresh breezes. Northeasterly breezes are expected to freshen modestly after mid week in wake of an expected cold front passage. On this day in 1894, the high temperature in Key West was only 48F and the low temperature was 44F, both records for the date. The 48F reading is the coldest high temperature on record, and the only occasion on which the high in Key West has failed to reach 50F.
Latest radar scans and satellite imagery illustrate a few isolated light showers over the higher terrain of interior northern California, as well as the next band of moisture moving onshore over far northwestern California very early on this Sunday morning. Current temperatures are generally trending approximately 2 to 4 degrees warmer than this time yesterday morning, valid at 145 AM PST.
620 AM EST Sun Dec 29 2024 Today will be warmer and breezy with showers and thunderstorms likely along and ahead of an approaching cold front, with some severe thunderstorms possible.
623 AM CST Sun Dec 29 2024 - Above normal temperatures continue today, with highs ranging from the low 20s north to mid 40s southwest and far south central.
- Unseasonably warm weather will continue through Monday, after which cooler temperatures will return for New Year's Eve and the opening days of 2025.
539 AM CST Sun Dec 29 2024 (Today through Monday) The most recent surface analysis indicates a cold front over the western Gulf of Mexico. Dry weather is progged for the end of the weekend through the start of the new work week for the BRO CWFA as a west-northwest to east-southeast 500 mb flow prevails in the wake of the cold front. In fact, another round of record high temperatures cannot be ruled-out for Monday, as the approach of another cold front from the north and west creates a downsloping effect off of the neighboring higher terrain of Mexico.
Updated Aviation Discussion Dry and mild conditions will continue through the entire upcoming week with high temperatures anywhere from five to ten degrees above normal, or mainly in the low to mid 70s across the lower deserts. Low temperatures will be closer to normal with the lower deserts generally in the 40s, and mid to upper 30s colder desert locales. Upper level ridging is now working its way eastward into the Desert Southwest, but the core of the ridge will stay just west of central Baja. The ridge is also helping to push any higher level clouds to the east resulting in mostly clear skies today and lasting through Monday. With the additional sunshine today and higher heights aloft, temperatures will warm up with highs topping out near 75 degrees across the lower deserts.
With the lower dew points, overnight low temperatures will drop, especially with radiational cooling setting up as high pressure builds in giving way to clearer skies and light surface flow.
357 AM CST Sun Dec 29 2024 - Above normal temperatures continue today, with highs ranging from the low 20s north to mid 40s southwest and far south central.
832 AM CST Sun Dec 29 2024 - Above normal temperatures continue today, with highs ranging from the low 20s north to mid 40s southwest and far south central.
259 AM MST Sun Dec 29 2024 Dry and mild conditions will continue through the entire upcoming week with high temperatures anywhere from five to ten degrees above normal, or mainly in the low to mid 70s across the lower deserts. Low temperatures will be closer to normal with the lower deserts generally in the 40s, and mid to upper 30s colder desert locales. Upper level ridging is now working its way eastward into the Desert Southwest, but the core of the ridge will stay just west of central Baja. The ridge is also helping to push any higher level clouds to the east resulting in mostly clear skies today and lasting through Monday. With the additional sunshine today and higher heights aloft, temperatures will warm up with highs topping out near 75 degrees across the lower deserts.
632 AM CST Sun Dec 29 2024 (Today through Monday Night) Even with the passage of the cold front, light winds/wet grounds and mostly clear skies are making for favorable conditions for patchy to dense fog this morning. But as this cooler/drier air mass continues to filter in from the north, visibilites could bounce around a bit (from 1/4 to 1 mile) before finally clearing later this morning. Not too sure that the visibilities will fall into Dense Fog Advisory criteria at this time given the lower dewpoints. But this next system will be dragging a second cold front into/across the region Mon night. So, Mon highs in the lower to mid 70s will be falling back into the 40s to lower 50s by Mon night.
340 AM MST Sun Dec 29 2024 KEY MESSAGES: - More active weather expected with colder air moving in with initial freezing rain chances Sunday night transitioning to all snow Monday. Initially temperatures are warm enough to support drizzle and rain across McCone, Prairie, Dawson, and central Phillips County, but this will quickly transition to freezing drizzle and freezing rain this evening and then to all snow by Monday morning.
458 AM CST Sun Dec 29 2024 Updated at 456 AM CST Sun Dec 29 2024 - Warmer weather Sunday and Monday.
The majority of the valleys in west-central Montana and north-central Idaho have so far remained well above freezing, limiting any potential for snow accumulations. Areas of exception, are the valleys in Lemhi County and southwest Montana were they have remained at freezing or below. A Winter Weather Advisory has been added to southwest Montana, to go along with the highlights that were issued yesterday afternoon.
A persistent ridge of high pressure will bring above normal temperatures and quiet weather for most of our forecast area going into the New Year, except for breezy northerly winds in the Colorado River Valley. Surface obs have shown winds increasing through the morning, especially in the higher elevations of the Sierra and the Spring Mountains. Winds in the Las Vegas Valley may also take longer to work down to the valley floor, which could cause today's high temperature to be several degrees cooler than expected, or even occur after sunset if winds take until then to reach the surface. As the axis of the parent trough moves away to the east tonight, the surface cold front will make its way south through the southern Great Basin and into the Mojave Desert.
(Now through Monday) An upper level trough will pivot eastward today, with its axis pushing east of the Appalachians by this evening. Meanwhile, a surface cold front will continue to move through the area, exiting to our east this afternoon. Monday night lows generally in the lower to mid 50s.
312 PM EST Sun Dec 29 2024 (This evening through Monday) At a glance: - Temperatures remain above normal in the short term despite the passing of a cold front today.
Discussion: Trough axis swings across the area this evening with low clouds and some scattered light rain showers or drizzle. We won't see much additional precipitation totals, but clouds, low visibility, and drizzle are expected across the higher elevations this evening into tonight. With subsidence aloft and low-level moisture, expect low clouds and some mountain/ridgetop fog to continue into Monday morning. Boundary layer convective mixing will clear out clouds on Monday afternoon with temperatures remaining about 10 degF above normal as ridging remains across the region.
1111 AM CST Sun Dec 29 2024 (Rest of Today) The surface cold front has nearly exited east of the local area this morning. Clouds will maintain their hold over the region through much of the day before thinning out this evening, leading to highs only reaching the lower 60s.
(Rest of Today) The surface cold front has nearly exited east of the local area this morning. Clouds will maintain their hold over the region through much of the day before thinning out this evening, leading to highs only reaching the lower 60s.
- Unseasonably warm weather will continue today and Monday, after which cooler temperatures will return for New Year's Eve and the opening days of 2025. A pre-frontal trough will slide through the region in advance of the surface cold front (slated to arrive Monday evening/night), which will cause winds to shift out of the west/southwest.
1139 AM EST Sun Dec 29 2024 Today will be warmer and breezy with showers and thunderstorms possible along and ahead of an approaching cold front.
Those warmer southwesterly winds should help to mix out the cloud cover on Monday, allowing for high temperatures to reach the middle 60s to lower 70s across our entire region.
109 PM EST Sun Dec 29 2024 A strong area of low pressure will track northeast across the region today.
Developing low pressure in the Central Plains will increase the pressure gradient over South Central Texas on Monday.
244 PM CST Sun Dec 29 2024 Forecast discussion for routine afternoon forecast issuance - Patchy freezing fog is possible tonight, mainly across central and north- central Wisconsin. If fog does develop restrictions in visibility and a few slippery spots on untreated roads and bridges may impact Monday morning commuters.
Temperatures will trend cooler after today but will stay above average through midweek. Warm front went through the region this morning and now within the stable warm sector rain has been non existent today. As the low moves northeast into Canada, wraparound flow will bring cooler air and another batch of showers.
The mid level trough that brought light precip to the area overnight has shifted east and helped to draw slightly drier air in from the northwest this afternoon. For tonight as the system approaches expect low pressure to develop across western KS with increasing southeast winds by early Monday morning. However the strongest lift will shift east of the area after 00z Tues and soundings show drier air in the snow growth zone so it may end up being light rain/drizzle as sfc temps also are forecast to remain above freezing for much of the night.
- A few more showers on NYE and then trending cooler by NYE night with temperatures falling into the 30s. - Turning colder late this week as a stronger cold front moves through. Light scattered showers will continue throughout the day as the trough axis swings through. Short wave ridging builds in for Monday and that will bring the return of some sun with highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s.
Given the lower confidence, have included MVFR conditions in the forecast. /73 (Now through Monday) An upper level trough will pivot eastward today, with its axis pushing east of the Appalachians by this evening. Meanwhile, a surface cold front, will continue to move through the area, exiting to our east this afternoon.
1114 AM CST Sun Dec 29 2024 Updated at 1107 AM CST Sun Dec 29 2024 - Warmer weather Sunday and Monday.
Quiet weather conditions will prevail across our forecast area through this afternoon as hi-res guidance from both the GFS and the NAM shows the cold front in Georgia continuing its eastward track towards the Carolinas. There is a weak response, though a response none the less, as a weak surface warm front lifts northward.
Most of the precipitation with this prefrontal trough will be east of the area by 4 pm. Due to timing of the frontal boundary, lows will range from the upper 40s over interior SE GA, to the lower 60s over north central FL.
The ridge-y pattern we have been stuck in for the past couple of weeks looks to hang around into the new year. The ridge becomes more zonal across the region through the course of the week. Combine that with them not being deep enough to bring substantial cold air into our area (mostly skirting across to our north) and we are left with days that might be slightly cooler but the end result is still above normal temperatures for the region.
This feature is helping to keep surface winds elevated to the east, with much lighter winds to the west in the vicinity of the Lower Keys. At the surface, high pressure in the Atlantic will interact with several lows over the CONUS to promote a weak pressure field through New Years Day. Global deterministic and ensemble guidance has come into somewhat better agreement on an earlier arrival of a cold front sometime late New Years Eve or early New Years Day. High pressure building in the wake of the front will only slowly progress southeastward into the western North Atlantic, and thus winds will likely also be slow to increase, especially over the weekend.
250 PM CST Sun Dec 29 2024 A dry post frontal airmass amid predominantly zonal flow will help keep weather conditions quiet heading into tonight as global guidance continues to show the cold front tracking southeastward towards the Florida Panhandle. This response will be fairly weak as the sfc warm front lifts off to the north towards the Mid Tennessee Valley.
1148 AM CST Sun Dec 29 2024 Quiet weather conditions will prevail across our forecast area through this afternoon as hi-res guidance from both the GFS and the NAM shows the cold front in Georgia continuing its eastward track towards the Carolinas. There is a weak response, though a response none the less, as a weak surface warm front lifts northward.
1159 AM CST Sun Dec 29 2024 (Today through Monday Night) Even with the passage of the cold front, light winds/wet grounds and mostly clear skies are making for favorable conditions for patchy to dense fog this morning. But as this cooler/drier air mass continues to filter in from the north, visibilites could bounce around a bit (from 1/4 to 1 mile) before finally clearing later this morning. Not too sure that the visibilities will fall into Dense Fog Advisory criteria at this time given the lower dewpoints. But this next system will be dragging a second cold front into/across the region Mon night. So, Mon highs in the lower to mid 70s will be falling back into the 40s to lower 50s by Mon night.
1148 AM CST Sun Dec 29 2024 (Today through Monday) The most recent surface analysis indicates a cold front over the western Gulf of Mexico. Dry weather is progged for the end of the weekend through the start of the new work week for the BRO CWFA as a west-northwest to east-southeast 500 mb flow prevails in the wake of the cold front. In fact, another round of record high temperatures cannot be ruled-out for Monday, as the approach of another cold front from the north and west creates a downsloping effect off of the neighboring higher terrain of Mexico.
Freezing fog is possible with low temperatures around 30 degrees.
347 PM EST Sun Dec 29 2024 Low pressure will move away from the area overnight.
Dry and mild conditions will continue through the entire upcoming week with high temperatures anywhere from five to ten degrees above normal, or mainly in the low to mid 70s across the lower deserts. Low temperatures will be closer to normal with the lower deserts generally in the 40s, and mid to upper 30s colder desert locales. Upper level ridging is now working its way eastward into the Desert Southwest, but the core of the ridge will stay just west of central Baja. The ridge is also helping to push any higher level clouds to the east resulting in mostly clear skies today and lasting through Monday. With the additional sunshine today and higher heights aloft, temperatures will warm up with highs topping out near 75 degrees across the lower deserts.
Mountain snow has led to chain controls along I-80 and US-50, and will likely continue as colder air moves into the higher elevations with the passing of the primary cold front. Ensemble guidance shows this system vacating the area eastward with upper level ridging filling in over the region by tomorrow night. With the synoptic pattern shift, we will see cooler high temperatures and cold morning low temperatures, along with morning fog and patchy frost.
Temperatures will trend cooler Monday but will stay above average through mid week. Warm front went through the region this morning and now within the stable warm sector rain has been non existent today. As the low moves northeast into Canada, wraparound flow will bring cooler air and another batch of showers.
A low-level trough/secondary cold front will move near the northern counties later tonight and stall out. This would be favorable for high temperatures rising to the higher end of guidance, which appears to be the more likely scenario. However if low clouds and fog hang around longer than expected into the afternoon, this alternative scenario would result in high temperatures being quite a bit cooler.
(This evening through Monday) Light shower activity lingers behind the exiting cold front with scattering cloud cover. The evening brings clearing skies and increased radiational cooling, calling for a much cooler night for the more interior areas.
The mid level trough that brought light precip to the area overnight has shifted east and helped to draw slightly drier air in from the northwest this afternoon. For tonight as the system approaches expect low pressure to develop across western KS with increasing southeast winds by early Monday morning. However the strongest lift will shift east of the area after 00z Tues and soundings show drier air in the snow growth zone so it may end up being light rain/drizzle as sfc temps also are forecast to remain above freezing for much of the night. Low pressure moves over the area tomorrow. An MVFR stratus deck of clouds is expected to move over airports late in the morning as the low approaches.
- A few more showers on NYE and then trending cooler by NYE night with temperatures falling into the 30s. - Turning colder late this week as a stronger cold front moves through. The trough axis will slowly move eastward ending showers chances from west to east through the rest of the overnight hours. Light scattered showers will continue throughout the day as the trough axis swings through. Short wave ridging builds in for Monday and that will bring the return of some sun with highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s.
825 PM EST Sun Dec 29 2024 A cold front will track east across our region tonight. Mild Pacific high pressure will move over the Carolinas then push offshore Monday through Monday night.
(This evening through Monday) At a glance: - Temperatures remain above normal in the short term despite the passing of a cold front today.
550 PM CST Sun Dec 29 2024 Updated aviation portion for 00Z TAF issuance - Patchy freezing fog is possible tonight, mainly across central and north- central Wisconsin. If fog does develop restrictions in visibility and a few slippery spots on untreated roads and bridges may impact Monday morning commuters.
615 PM EST Sun Dec 29 2024 Low pressure will move away from the area overnight.
WAA from onshore winds will lead to warmer and more humid weather. A cold front is set to arrive Monday night. Locations in the southernmost counties may touch the low 80s. Lows Monday night will be cooler as a result of CAA from the FROPA.
Storm track remains well north of the area with flat ridging in control. Min relative humidities will continue in the teens for the lower elevations and lower twenties for the higher locations. The last freezing date recorded was January 12th with 29 degrees.
349 PM MST Sun Dec 29 2024 KEY MESSAGES: - More active weather expected with colder air moving in with initial freezing rain chances Sunday night transitioning to all snow Monday. +++ Afternoon Update: Blended in CAMs for freezing fog potential generally NE of Fort Peck Lake. - Enriquez +++ WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Winter Weather Advisories are now in place for the SW third of the CWA for freezing rain, initially for the NE parts of the area, with a transition to snow.
As an upper low moves into the PacNW this evening, a 150-kt jet streak underneath it will stretch through the Four Corners region. Under mostly clear skies, winds increase from the west in the higher terrain tonight, becoming breezy to windy in the morning. The low pressure moves to the east Monday night, allowing the pressure gradient to loosen.
731 PM CST Sun Dec 29 2024 A dry post frontal airmass amid predominantly zonal flow will help keep weather conditions quiet heading into tonight as global guidance continues to show the cold front tracking southeastward towards the Florida Panhandle. This response will be fairly weak as the sfc warm front lifts off to the north towards the Mid Tennessee Valley.
707 PM EST Sun Dec 29 2024 The cold front is currently moving through the area and high pressure will be building in for Monday.
227 PM MST Sun Dec 29 2024 KEY MESSAGES: - More active weather expected with colder air moving in with initial freezing rain chances Sunday night transitioning to all snow Monday. WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Winter Weather Advisories are now in place for the SW third of the CWA for freezing rain, initially for the NE parts of the area, with a transition to snow.
158 AM EST Mon Dec 30 2024 Low pressure tracking across the eastern Great Lakes tonight will bring additional rainfall and strong winds.
/NF/ A dry post frontal airmass amid predominantly zonal flow will help keep weather conditions quiet heading into tonight as global guidance continues to show the cold front tracking southeastward towards the Florida Panhandle. This response will be fairly weak as the sfc warm front lifts off to the north towards the Mid Tennessee Valley.
The highest gusts will persist through 1-3 AM and will be located on the downslope side of the Kaibab Plateau, Mogollon Rim, and White Mtns where 35-45 mph gusts are forecast. The ridge-y pattern we have been stuck in for the past couple of weeks looks to hang around into the new year. The ridge becomes more zonal across the region through the course of the week. Combine that with them not being deep enough to bring substantial cold air into our area (mostly skirting across to our north) and we are left with days that might be slightly cooler but the end result is still above normal temperatures for the region.
1012 PM EST Sun Dec 29 2024 High pressure will build across the region tonight into Monday.