Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Aloft, weak counterclockwise steering flow was in place regionally around an area of upper low pressure situated over Ern OK and NErn TX. This upper low will provide lingering PoP chances through Sunday afternoon before this feature lifts to the NE and drier weather returns with the approach of upper level ridging. Pre-dawn temperatures were mainly in the low to mid 70s.
937 AM EDT Sat Jul 27 2024 Weak high pressure will remain to our north through early Sunday, before becoming established offshore Sunday afternoon. Clear skies for most of the day as weak high pressure remains to our north. Some fair weather cu this afternoon, then clearing tonight as lows drop to the low to mid 60s. High pressure center shifts offshore Sunday afternoon with winds shifting to a more southerly direction resulting in a warming trend with highs climbing into the low 90s.
The forecast remains relatively dynamic as a weak mid-level low pressure system pushes northward toward northern California and southern Oregon this afternoon. The forecast will remain under the general influences of troughs for much of the work week as along with the weak mid-level low coming northward from California, the area also is under the influence of a deep broad trough moving across Canada. This system will continue to allow for breezy winds, relatively low humidities, but also much cooler weather with temperatures near to slightly below normal for the next few days.
957 AM EDT Sat Jul 27 2024 High pressure builds over the region through tonight, then remains Sunday.
650 AM EDT Sat Jul 27 2024 Warm, comfortable, and dry this weekend as high pressure remains parked over the region. ------------------------------------------------------------------- Slow 500mb height rises expected today as upper level ridge drifts over the upper Midwest.
643 AM CDT Sat Jul 27 2024 (Today through Sunday) BRO radar currently shows scattered convection across the Lower Texas coastal waters with lighter activity inland across portions of the CWA. The 500mb trough/low moves further east on Sunday as mid-level ridging builds into the region. A little warmer on Sunday as rain chances and cloud cover decrease.
A weak upper level trough remains over the region through the weekend.
Though we are slowly both warming and moistening, an amplified 500mb ridge is dead overhead. Max temps mostly 80s, with some of our beaches a bit cooler. Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Mid-upper level ridging just upstream at this early hour shifts overhead through the day today before ever so slowly beginning to push off to the east tonight. Otherwise, aforementioned ridge overhead and southwest winds will aid to boost temperatures another handful of degrees over yesterday's highs. A touch cooler in the U.
(Today through Sunday) BRO radar currently shows scattered convection across the Lower Texas coastal waters with lighter activity inland across portions of the CWA. The 500mb trough/low moves further east on Sunday as mid-level ridging builds into the region. A little warmer on Sunday as rain chances and cloud cover decrease.
622 AM CDT Sat Jul 27 2024 (Today through Sunday) Water vapor imagery this morning shows the broad upper-level trough axis finally shifting to the east as ridging begins to build to our south. Thanks to the ridging building overhead today, storm chances will decrease today. The ridge will be short lived though as a trough moves across the Midwest. This trough will bring more storm coverage as we head into the new work week.
(Today through Sunday) The strong upper level trough that has its base near the tip of the Baha will begin to cut off later today into Sunday.
Temperatures remain on track across east central Florida as well, with afternoon highs forecast to climb into the low to mid 90s.
617 AM EDT Sat Jul 27 2024 High pressure builds over the region today and tonight, then remains Sunday.
A few degrees cooler today with isolated showers and thunderstorms across mainly White Pine and eastern Elko counties. Relatively weak trough energy passing over the region bring drier air in across the western half of the CWA today. The passing trough today will also result in breezy west to southwest winds of 10 to 15 mph with gusts of 15 to 25 mph during the afternoon and early evening hours. In the wake of today's passing trough, temperatures begin to trend warmer on Sunday.
614 AM CDT Sat Jul 27 2024 Today and tonight: Midlevel trough to the northwest and building high pressure over the northern Gulf will maintain SW flow regime over our area today and continued rain chances.
This instability will be combined with a weak short wave trough at 700/500mb. An upper ridge persisting overhead will again yield similar weather today as yesterday with mostly sunny skies and highs in the mid 90s.
632 AM CDT Sat Jul 27 2024 (Today) A weak upper low near the Oklahoma/Arkansas border will drift slowly north today.
Highs are also on track to reach the mid to upper 80s for most locations, with it being slightly cooler in the higher elevations of northeast Alabama and southern middle Tennessee.
Upper level trofs rotating around the Saskatchewan closed low press southward over The Treasure State on their counter clockwise rotating path. Daytime and nighttime temperatures are cooler than they have been of late, ranging closer to normal.
622 AM CDT Sat Jul 27 2024 (Saturday through Sunday) Upper trough axis has maybe drifted a little further to the north and west over the last 24 hours.
Showers will continue through this afternoon as global guidance shows a midlevel trough to the northwest along with a building 1021mb high pressure system over the northern Gulf. /CR/ Today and tonight: Midlevel trough to the northwest and building high pressure over the northern Gulf will maintain SW flow regime over our area today and continued rain chances.
High pressure is likely to build back into the area for the second half of the week, with good agreement among various ensembles. Underneath this high pressure, temperatures will trend warmer again.
735 AM EDT Sat Jul 27 2024 High pressure builds over the region today and tonight, then remains Sunday.
Thus, temperatures this afternoon will generally be below seasonal averages as temperatures struggle to warm into the 70's and 80's across the far interior while cooler conditions persists near the coast with upper 50's to 60's. A few of the interior most portions of Monterey and San Benito counties may reach the lower 90's.
Current surface analysis shows a weak area of low pressure over the eastern ND/SD border with a frontal boundary extending west through northwestern SD into MT. Current Water Vapor and upper air analysis shows upper high over the Great Lakes region, with ridge extending into Quebec. Mild upper trough sits over the west coast, with southwest flow over the forecast area.
(This evening through Sunday night) Once again, the pattern that has been locked in over the last week continues for our region with a very active southwesterly flow aloft sitting up over us on the NW periphery oh an H5 ridge just to our southeast. Sunday will yield another convectively active day, but maybe not as active as days past as the upper level pattern change gradually begins to change with the H5 ridge across the northeast Gulf of Mexico beginning to spread east.
Otherwise, expect high temperatures in the low to mid 80s. (Saturday through Sunday) Upper trough axis has maybe drifted a little further to the north and west over the last 24 hours.
244 PM EDT Sat Jul 27 2024 High pressure will remain in place tonight offering dry conditions. A narrow mid level ridge axis positioned just to our west will build across the area overnight. Lows tonight will generally dip into the lower to mid 60s, with some upper 60s across Northern Kentucky and Southeast Indiana where cloud cover will be thickest. Low level moisture increases with surface dewpoints into the lower 70s across the southwest Sunday afternoon. High temperatures to range from the lower/middle 80s over the southwest (where clouds and pcpn will be observed) to the lower 90s northeast. Lows Sunday night will be mild - ranging from the upper 60s to the lower 70s.
101 PM EDT Sat Jul 27 2024 High pressure builds over the region through tonight, then remains Sunday.
KEY MESSAGES: - Dry weather continues ------------------------------------------------------------------- Dry weather will continue through tonight as high pressure remains centered across the Upper Ohio Valley and Eastern Great Lakes region.
Highs will be in the upper 80s to low 90s by midweek with dewpoints in the low to mid 70s.
A trough of low pressure over north central Washington this afternoon will maintain southwest to westerly flow aloft over north central Idaho and western Montana. As the trough begins to shift eastward tonight, a piece of energy is expected to swing through central Idaho and western Montana, bringing the threat for a few isolated nocturnal thunderstorms. Another round of afternoon thunderstorms is expected, with the highest probability (30 percent chance) for Lemhi County into southwest Montana.
(This evening through Sunday) Expect warmer and dry weather for the next 24 hours as upper level ridging begins to build across the area. Highs on Sunday will be in the lower 90s along the I-10 corridor, to the mid to upper 90s across the remainder of the area.
1226 PM CDT Sat Jul 27 2024 (Today through Sunday) BRO radar currently shows scattered convection across the Lower Texas coastal waters with lighter activity inland across portions of the CWA. The 500mb trough/low moves further east on Sunday as mid-level ridging builds into the region. A little warmer on Sunday as rain chances and cloud cover decrease.
Extensive cloud cover and precip could lead to cooler temps across most the area. A closed upper level low is slowly lumbering north into our area today into tomorrow. Clouds associated with this low have kept the area just a tad cooler than originally forecast. Tomorrow afternoon, another wave will approach the area from the west as the upper low slowly moves east. This cyclonic flow behind the low with another wave approaching could lead to more widespread shower and storm development in the afternoon. Overall largescale pattern sets up with a strong ridge over the CONUS. We are on the northern end of the ridge and in the 'ring of fire' for waves moving on top of the high. At the same time, a cold front becomes stationary just to the north of the area.
Global guidance continues to highlight a mid-level trough in the ArkLaMiss region to the northwest with a building high pressure system over the northern Gulf. Nighttime temperatures will drop in the low 70s. More rain in the forecast heading into tomorrow thanks to the mid level trough to our northwest. /CR/ By Sunday evening into the beginning of the work week, an upper trough is progged to track northeast of the forecast area.
A closed low at 250mb was slowly moving away from the region resulting in rising heights aloft and subsidence at the upper levels of the atmosphere. However, a short wave trough was noted at 700 and 500mb moving very slowly out of the central-southern Rockies. Rising heights from the upper ridge shifting eastward will keep convective chances low on Sunday. A strengthening surface cyclone in eastern Colorado will boost the surface pressure gradient and increase southerly winds.
332 PM EDT Sat Jul 27 2024 High pressure drifts eastward towards New England tonight into Sunday.
Upper-level ridging is centered directly over the Florida peninsula, with a light and variable surface flow. Upper-level ridging will remain over the FL peninsula, with a generally light and variable flow in response.
(The rest of today ) An upper level trough and associated circulation is lifting through the area today.
132 PM EDT Sat Jul 27 2024 High pressure will be in firm control through the weekend resulting in tranquil and comfortable conditions.
Some near severe or sub severe hail will be possible across northern El Paso and Kiowa counties where CAPE/shear will be greatest, but overall this risk appears to stay on the low side of the spectrum. As the upper trough passes to the north on Sunday, a drier and warmer airmass will spread across southern CO. Otherwise, this will be the beginning of a prolonged period of heat as temperatures top out between 100 and 104 across the lower Arkansas River valley. Given the higher temperatures in climatology, readings are not quite hitting Heat Advisory criteria, though it could get close for an hour or two across portions of El Paso county where mid 90s will be possible.
Otherwise, expect high temperatures in the low to mid 80s. /05/ (Saturday through Sunday) Upper trough axis has maybe drifted a little further to the north and west over the last 24 hours.
135 PM EDT Sat Jul 27 2024 Weak high pressure moves across the region through Sunday night, keeping conditions dry.
This process will push the upper ridging southward over the Gulf, with only the northern periphery of the ridge along the Gulf coast. At the surface, high pressure remains centered over the mid Atlantic states, ridging southwestward, but a very weak trough will linger across the immediate Gulf coast region. Low temperatures tonight area expected to be in the low to mid 70s inland and the upper 70s to near 80 along the coast.
The main trough that has been present this past week is long gone with upper ridging replacing it. Along the western side of the ridge, there is a weakness from Arkansas through Missouri. Looking at model soundings, rain will be efficient with fairly saturated profiles, skinny CAPE, and freezing levels above 13 kft.
Tonight, the upper level low centered over northeast Oklahoma will begin to lift to the northeast leaving the weak ridge over Texas. The low level southerly flow will strengthen further and the 2"+ PW airmass will move west through the I-35 corridor and into the portions of the Rio Grande Plains.
Some of our forecast models continue to show a slight chance of thunderstorms this afternoon, but the cooler surface temperatures caused by the smoke will also make the atmosphere more stable than it would be without the smoke and will likely inhibit convection across most of the area. There is also a slight chance of thunderstorms this afternoon in Idaho south of the Snake River and around the high peaks of the Boise and Payette National Forests.
Accompanying the drier air will be locally breezy afternoon southwest winds and slightly cooler temperatures. The trough moving into the NW United States continues to push our ridge southward and introduce drier westerly flow, especially over the western 1/2 of our state. Low level moisture in the lowest 5000 feet didn't change much on the Bellemont 12Z sounding over the past 24 hrs, but significant drying is noted aloft.
Accompanying the drier air will be locally breezy afternoon southwest winds and slightly cooler temperatures. High pressure will continue to slide south and east toward NM and TX over the next few days as a trough moves by to our north.
Meanwhile, models still depict a decaying short wave trough aloft moving into the area from the Bahamas, which should also contribute a very modest increase in instability for scattered to numerous showers this afternoon. Still expecting slightly warmer heat indices with max values in the 103-108 degree range.
Now we are watching scattered showers gradually diminish while most of the CWA is shrouded in clouds with temperatures struggling to reach the low 80s. So are we heading towards and rinse a repeat forecast for our Sunday? Not quite! The pattern will find itself in flux tomorrow as a mid/upper ridge over Florida and the eastern Gulf expands westward, gradually increasing mid/upper pressure heights over southeast Texas.
1219 PM CDT Sat Jul 27 2024 (The rest of today ) An upper level trough and associated circulation is lifting through the area today.
5+" and dew pts in the low 70s. SW flow aloft continues with a trough/low pressure system stacked and traversing the northern portions of Alberta and Manitoba over the next 24 hours.
Wind risk seems to be on the lower end today with DCAPE only sitting at about 725 J/kg overhead.
Change is afoot, though, as the ridge axis is in the process of passing overhead as of this current (Saturday) afternoon. Despite the additional clouds, temperatures will be warmer tomorrow, and climb into the upper 80s in most locations. The mid and upper level trough currently visible on satellite imagery over Missouri will be weakening as it heads our direction, but will still represent enough forcing for some showers and perhaps rumbles of thunder to make their way into far southwest Michigan by Sunday evening.
231 PM EDT Sat Jul 27 2024 High pressure will extend across the Middle Atlantic and Carolinas through the weekend. Low-level thicknesses will rise slightly compared to Saturday, but highs should still cap in the mid 80s as dew points mix out into the lower 60s.
Convection to be further aided by instability generated by an upper-level trough across western Missouri and eastern Kansas. Overnight lows tonight are forecast to average in the lower 70s. With partly cloudy skies prevailing, enough sunshine should break through to drive afternoon high temperatures in to the upper 80s to lower 90s with the higher temperatures across northeast Texas and southeast Oklahoma. On Sunday night, conditions to improve with mostly clear skies prevailing and temperatures falling into the low to mid 70s.
The main area that has seen additional convective attempts have been in the east, where moisture is greatest and the influence of a trough axis still exists. By evening, the potential exists for showers and storms to develop a little more in earnest as the low level jet also begins to ramp up after 7pm. Overall chances still remain on the lower side (20 to perhaps 30%), but have included in the forecast for this evening into tonight, similar to what occurred last night. The upper trough that has been lingering just to our east will finally move off further to the north and east. As this occurs, the upper ridge that has been parked across the west will begin to encroach more onto the Panhandles.
A longwave trough remains over the Northeast Seaboard while a closed upper low was over the Northwest Ozarks. A weak front extended from West Tennessee southeast to near Gadsden and further Southeast to near Atlanta, GA and was returning north as a warm front. Highs will range from the mid 80s northeast to the low 90s south. The upper low will move further north over Missouri tonight as the longwave trough moves offshore of the East Coast. Winds will be from the southeast at 2-4 mph and low temperatures will range from the low 70s northeast to the mid 70s southwest.
400 PM EDT Sat Jul 27 2024 High pressure will be in firm control through the weekend resulting in tranquil and comfortable conditions.
205 PM EDT Sat Jul 27 2024 High pressure builds in from the north this afternoon behind a departing trough. As such, with slight increase in southerly flow, could have a few isolated afternoon showers/storms across the North Carolina mountains and southern Virginia Blue Ridge. An upper trough will push into the eastern US by the end of the weekend and start of the work week.
1231 PM CDT Sat Jul 27 2024 (Today through Sunday) The strong upper level trough that has its base near the tip of the Baha will begin to cut off later today into Sunday.
1224 PM EDT Sat Jul 27 2024 High pressure builds over the region through tonight, then remains Sunday.
Discussion: Currently showers and thunderstorms are forming along the higher terrain of the eastern Tennessee Valley. Activity is confined to south of Interstate 40, and this area should continue to see the highest coverage of storms. Expect warmer temperatures tomorrow with highs topping out around 3-5 degrees hotter than what we experience today.
238 PM EDT Sat Jul 27 2024 High pressure will drift east from the Great Lakes to New England through the weekend, maintaining a period of fair weather.
Otherwise, light winds will then continue as the trough moves to the east. HREF supports mid to high clouds moving across the Columbia Basin and Yakima valley including portions of the WA Cascades (>70% confidence) with the trough moving across the PacNW. Temperatures will be in the low to high 80s, but are expected to steadily increase into the 90s in the Basin and upper 80s elsewhere.
923 PM EDT Sat Jul 27 2024 High pressure will remain in place tonight offering dry conditions. Low temperatures at the surface will be slightly warmer tonight, with most locations remaining above the 60 degree mark. Low level moisture increases with surface dewpoints into the lower 70s across the southwest Sunday afternoon. High temperatures to range from the lower/middle 80s over the southwest (where clouds and pcpn will be observed) to the lower 90s northeast. Lows Sunday night will be mild - ranging from the upper 60s to the lower 70s.
1003 PM EDT Sat Jul 27 2024 High pressure over central Pennsylvania will keep fair and comfortable weather over the region tonight.
938 PM EDT Sat Jul 27 2024 High pressure will build over the area tonight with cooler and drier conditions.
High pressure will begin to build back into the Four Corners later in the week with temperatures rising and monsoonal moisture creeping back into Northwest Arizona.
Low pressure center aloft is beginning to congeal into a subtropical low while ridge over the northeast Gulf is expanding. The low will continue lifting out tomorrow with high pressure nosing overhead.
911 PM EDT Sat Jul 27 2024 High pressure over central Pennsylvania will keep fair and comfotable weather over the region tonight.
917 PM EDT Sat Jul 27 2024 Weak high pressure moves across the region through Sunday night, keeping conditions dry.
Lower heights with the upper wave combined with more/earlier cloud cover with convection should hold temperatures in the western foothills in the lower 80s, with mid to upper 80s central and east.
904 PM EDT Sat Jul 27 2024 High pressure over central Pennsylvania will keep fair and comfotable weather over the region tonight.
High pressure will begin to build back into the Four Corners later in the week with temperatures rising and monsoonal moisture creeping back into Northwest Arizona. In other weather news, trough across the PacNW/northern Rockies will keep the ridge shunted well off to our southeast.
The upper trough combined with abundant moisture will continue to produce scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms overnight into Sunday. The mid/upper trough is progged to slowly shift northwest as a mid/upper level high builds across the area from the east through the day Sunday. For now, given the low probabilities, have left the mention of fog out of the forecast for Sunday night.
Temperatures this evening are in the mid to upper 70s with dew points in the low to mid 70s. Warm and muggy conditions tonight, with overnight lows in the low to mid 70s.
702 PM EDT Sat Jul 27 2024 * High pressure stationed near central Pennsylvania will allow for sunshine and low humidity this afternoon.
733 PM EDT Sat Jul 27 2024 High pressure will remain in place tonight offering dry conditions. A narrow mid level ridge axis positioned just to our west will build across the area overnight. Lows tonight will generally dip into the lower to mid 60s, with some upper 60s across Northern Kentucky and Southeast Indiana where cloud cover will be thickest. Low level moisture increases with surface dewpoints into the lower 70s across the southwest Sunday afternoon. High temperatures to range from the lower/middle 80s over the southwest (where clouds and pcpn will be observed) to the lower 90s northeast. Lows Sunday night will be mild - ranging from the upper 60s to the lower 70s.
A warm conveyor belt of moisture from a sub-tropical upper-level jet is providing ample moisture across the Lower Mississippi Valley this evening.
Lastly, it'll be a warm night due to elevated moisture, as temperatures merely drop into the lower to mid 70s.
638 PM EDT Sat Jul 27 2024 High pressure will build over the area tonight with cooler and drier conditions.