Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Cool overnight lows in the upr 40s to mid 50s and patchy ground fog followed by warm/dry daytime conditions with highs in the lower to mid 80s. Longer term: High pressure will continue to dominate the weather pattern through the work week.
Conditions dry out today with temperatures over 10 degrees cooler than yesterday. Another low pressure system drops into the region mid-to-late week, which will reinforce below-average temperatures and return precipitation chances to the southern Great Basin. Satellite imagery this morning shower a trough spinning in northeast Nevada. Withe the trough axis through much of the region, it was dry with clear skies in most locations. Compared to this time yesterday, temperatures are about 10-15 degrees cooler, so a noticable change in the temperatures for sure! In general, expecting quiet weather through the afternoon. This closed low will slide along the California coast before pushing into the Desert Southwest late Wednesday night.
(Tonight) High pressure continues to remain the dominant weather feature across the Tennessee Valley and is promoting dry and generally clear conditions across the region. Expect these clouds will thin later this evening and overnight, with mostly clear and calm conditions forecast across the region -- allowing temperatures to fall into the lower 60s.
233 PM MDT Tue Sep 17 2024 An upper level low is moving into the region, bringing a chance for strong to severe thunderstorms through around 9 pm this evening. PWATs are around 150-200% of normal, however, the highest expected rainfall totals through Wednesday are generally northwest of the CWA. Temperatures Wednesday will be cooler than today, with highs generally in the 60s.
1242 PM EDT Tue Sep 17 2024 Low pressure centered over the Carolinas early this morning will drift slowly northeast, staying on the east side of the southern Appalachians, which will keep a chance of rain in the area through Wednesday.
(Tonight through Wednesday night) Midlevel high pressure over Texas will continue to slowly dry out the midlevels and minimize rain chances today and tomorrow. Tomorrow will be slightly warmer than today and heat indices will rise to 105-110 degrees.
(Tonight through Wednesday night) There is an upper level ridge over the southern plains this afternoon. The low level flow is from the southeast over most of South-Central Texas keeping a warm, moist airmass in place. The upper ridge will remain in place through the short term period. Southeasterly flow in the low levels will also continue.
The latest WSR-88D radar as of 9:45 am MDT this morning shows areas of showers and isolated thunderstorms rotating around a closed upper low centered over southern Idaho. An area of showers in eastern Oregon is moving south around the western side of the low and will likely affect the area around Burns later this morning.
827 PM EDT Tue Sep 17 2024 High pressure will continue to bring mainly dry and mild weather through the remainder of the week and into this weekend for most of the region. 350 PM Update: High pressure continues to dominate our weather with just some high cirrostratus overhead of a low pressure system over the Carolinas. Tonight will generally be partly cloudy with the higher clouds remaining across the area. Partly sunny skies are again expected on Wednesday with high pressure remaining in control for the most part.
559 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024 - Daily chances of showers and storms will continue through the weekend, with the highest likelihood occurring at night.
727 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024 (Tonight through Wednesday night) There is an upper level ridge over the southern plains this afternoon. The low level flow is from the southeast over most of South-Central Texas keeping a warm, moist airmass in place. The upper ridge will remain in place through the short term period. Southeasterly flow in the low levels will also continue.
Breezy and dry conditions with temperatures a few degrees cooler than normal through the work week. The upper air pattern this afternoon was characterized by a deep trough centered over the Great Salt Lake as a secondary reinforcing trough makes its way into the Pacific Northwest. The remaining influence of the primary trough will gradually exit the area this afternoon and evening leaving noticeably cooler and drier air in its wake along with continued breezy southwest winds.
/NEW/ /Through Wednesday Evening/ The axis of a mid level ridge centered over Mexico stretches north through Central and North Texas, with the northern edge extending into the Southern Plains. The ridge will remain largely stationary for the next few days, keeping temperatures around 10 degrees above normal through the midweek period. Tonight's lows will remain in the lower 70s for most locations, with the exception of areas north and east of the DFW Metroplex where upper 60s are most likely.
1050 PM EDT Tue Sep 17 2024 An upper level low pressure system over the southern Appalachians will slowly rotate east through Wednesday. High pressure and dry weather will then persist into the weekend. The center of an upper level low over the southern Appalachians will move very slowly to the southeast tonight. Lows will range from the upper 50s to the lower 60s. Have held a chance of showers in our southeast Wednesday as the low slowly weakens. Clouds will continue to offer slightly cooler afternoon temperatures in this area. Otherwise, partly to mostly cloudy skies will continue with warm afternoon highs in the lower 80s.
- A cold front sweeping through the area will keep temperatures cooler than normal for the next several days.
(Tonight) Local weather conditions across the TN Valley overnight will continue to be dominated by an upper-level area of low pressure that is predicted to remain nearly stationary across western SC through the period. A broad area of altostratus clouds (accompanied by a few sprinkles of rain) along the western periphery of the low's circulation spread westward into northern AL earlier this evening, but recent trends in IR satellite data and near term model guidance both suggest that the leading edge of the cloud mass will continue to erode with time. The alternative scenario is that the cloud layer does not erode as quickly as advertised, with a few sprinkles of rain possible across northeast AL and adjacent portions of southern Middle TN overnight, along with warmer low temps that would reduce concern for fog formation.
Lingering rain showers into Wednesday, especially in a potential Puget Sound Convergence Zone, as the upper trough pushes eastward.
625 PM EDT Tue Sep 17 2024 High pressure will continue to bring mainly dry and mild weather through the remainder of the week and into this weekend for most of the region. 350 PM Update: High pressure continues to dominate our weather with just some high cirrostratus overhead of a low pressure system over the Carolinas. Tonight will generally be partly cloudy with the higher clouds remaining across the area. Partly sunny skies are again expected on Wednesday with high pressure remaining in control for the most part.
618 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024 Calm and warmer weather is expected throughout the week.
Meanwhile, an upper level trough continues to move down along the west coast. This feature is expected to become in a negatively tilted trough while evolve into a closed low just near the NW California Coast late this evening. Periods of light rain are expected to spread south and east overnight and into Wednesday as the low continue drifting southward. Showers will gradually taper off Wednesday morning from north to south with lingering showers through Wednesday afternoon as the low continue moving toward southern California. Wednesday night the low moves south and out of the area fairly quickly.
911 PM EDT Tue Sep 17 2024 High pressure will continue to bring mainly dry and mild weather through the remainder of the week and into this weekend for most of the region. 350 PM Update: High pressure continues to dominate our weather with just some high cirrostratus overhead of a low pressure system over the Carolinas. Tonight will generally be partly cloudy with the higher clouds remaining across the area. Partly sunny skies are again expected on Wednesday with high pressure remaining in control for the most part.
628 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024 (Tonight through Wednesday night) Midlevel high pressure over Texas will continue to slowly dry out the midlevels and minimize rain chances today and tomorrow. Tomorrow will be slightly warmer than today and heat indices will rise to 105-110 degrees.
717 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024 (Tonight) High pressure continues to remain the dominant weather feature across the Tennessee Valley and is promoting dry and generally clear conditions across the region. Expect these clouds will thin later this evening and overnight, with mostly clear and calm conditions forecast across the region -- allowing temperatures to fall into the lower 60s.
715 PM EDT Tue Sep 17 2024 An upper level low pressure system over the southern Appalachians will slowly rotate east through Wednesday. High pressure and dry weather will then persist into the weekend. Large scale pattern tonight will consist of mid-level ridging centered over the central Plains with troughing over the Appalachians. Decaying tropical low at the base of this trough will be nearly stationary during the period. Have held a chance of showers in our southeast Wednesday as the low slowly weakens. Clouds will continue to offer slightly cooler afternoon temperatures in this area. Otherwise, partly to mostly cloudy skies will continue with warm afternoon highs in the lower 80s.
705 PM EDT Tue Sep 17 2024 Some limited rain chances, best in the ridges southeast of Pittsburgh, will be present into Wednesday night thanks to slow-moving low pressure.
Considerable cloud cover remains overhead from I-65 eastward this evening in association with an upper level low centered over western North Carolina. Also can't completely rule out a sprinkle or light rain shower on the Plateau in the wraparound moisture from the upper low, but will not include a pop at this time. The Plateau wins for being the coolest with many spots still in the low 60s as we approach the noon hour. This is directly related to the upper level low centered over the TN/GA/NC triple point.
00Z Aviation Discussion A series of upper-lvl troughs progressing through the Desert Southwest will result in temperatures around 5 to 8 degrees below normal for the remainder of the workweek.
There are still some lingering clouds in the NE counties stemming from the low over SC. We're seeing an area of convergence that has developed on the southwestern side of the low over the northern counties of Central Alabama. With the closed low still spinning off to our northeast on Wednesday, we should see some extra cloud cover over our eastern and northeastern counties.
631 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024 (Tonight through Wednesday night) Key Messages: - Moderate Risk of of heat-related impacts A mid to upper level ridge is expected to expand into the region from northern Mexico tonight into tomorrow. Near normal temperatures are expected tomorrow afternoon ranging from the lower to the upper 90s.
High pressure will gradually shift into the area, bringing warming temperatures.
1016 PM EDT Tue Sep 17 2024 Showers and lightning storms are holding on a little longer than expected across the southern counties thanks to multiple boundary interactions near the frontal boundary meandering across Central Florida, and the trough aloft associated with a mid-level low over the Southeast.
741 PM EDT Tue Sep 17 2024 A low pressure system originating from the Atlantic brings rain showers and unsettled weather across the area through midweek.
1050 PM EDT Tue Sep 17 2024 High pressure will maintain fair dry weather with mild weather for the foreseeable future. dry weather with high pressure over the region, look for mins in the 50s. a fairly stout ridge will keep the area precipitation free through Wednesday night and mild.
807 PM EDT Tue Sep 17 2024 Weakening low pressure will linger west of the area before slowly moving northeast. A weak cold front accompanied with scattered convection will bring more seasonable temperatures in its wake near the end of the work week and into the upcoming weekend. With the upper low still to our west on Wednesday a few spokes of vorticity will rotate through the area, mainly western zones. 5" with decent instability in the afternoon as the low moves overhead.
1220 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024 (Tonight through Wednesday night) Key Messages: - Moderate Risk of of heat-related impacts A mid to upper level ridge is expected to expand into the region from northern Mexico tonight into tomorrow. Near normal temperatures are expected tomorrow afternoon ranging from the lower to the upper 90s.
Continued warmer than normal with dry weather. West central Texas remains under upper level ridging this afternoon. This is resulting in scattered thunderstorms moving northeast across northeastern New Mexico, and also lee troughing, allowing for a few gusts in our area out of the south and southeast. Otherwise, the warm temperatures will continue, with lows tonight in the upper 60s to lower 70s, and highs tomorrow in the low to mid 90s.
(Today through Thursday) Low pressure continues to swirl over the western Carolinas bringing some cloud cover to the area.
An upper level trough located over the Great Basin will develop farther to the northeast over the northern Rockies. With closer proximity of the trough, shear will increase this afternoon for western portions of the area. Wednesday, the trough will be positioned farther northward, with decreased shear leading to less favorable conditions for storm updraft organization and maintenance.
High pressure will continue to be the dominating factor locally as an upper low across the Carolinas slowly pushes east. Will see moisture wrap around the western side of this low, and that will result in an increase in cloud cover this afternoon, especially across NE AL and southern middle TN. Afternoon highs will range from the low to mid 80s, but may need to be bumped up a few degrees if subsidence wins out and cloud cover is overdone.
Temperatures should be warmer today due to less cloudiness, with afternoon highs generally ranging from the upper 80s to mid 90s.
Temperatures overnight have fallen into the low to mid-60s. Model guidance shows a 592mb subtropical high centered over Texas, supporting a positively tilted ridge upstream. Concurrently, a longwave positively tilted trough looks to encompass much of the eastern seaboard.
Some severe storms are possible Thursday with a passing cold front. Wednesday, a stacked upper level low is progged to push out of the Rockies and into the northern Plains and southern Manitoba, dragging a cold front over the Upper Mississippi and northern Great Lakes Wednesday afternoon and through the day Thursday. Beyond Thursday, the Northland finds itself stuck between a high pressure over the southern Plains and an upper level trough bearing down from Canada.
1137 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024 - Daily chances of showers and storms will continue through the weekend, with the highest likelihood occurring at night.
Early morning water vapor imagery/RAP analysis showed the circulation around a closed low spinning over the Carolinas. This closed low will continue to lift east northeast while weakening through tonight. Temperatures will top out slightly warmer this afternoon and bottom out slightly warmer than normal Thursday morning.
235 AM EDT Wed Sep 18 2024 High pressure will maintain fair dry weather with mild weather for the foreseeable future. Otherwise, dry weather prevails owed to high pressure over the region. Even so, a fairly stout ridge will keep the area precipitation free through this period and mild.
The highest coverage looks to be along the coast, with TEMPOs included through 1Z there. Showers and lightning storms are holding on a little longer than expected across the southern counties thanks to multiple boundary interactions near the frontal boundary meandering across Central Florida, and the trough aloft associated with a mid-level low over the Southeast.
Wednesday will feature the highest PoPs near the I-10 corridor, and although the flash flood threat should be lower, localized poor drainage flooding cannot be ruled out. (Wednesday night through Thursday night) Upper level trough begins to lift north and east Wednesday night into Thursday.
At this hour, mid level clouds are passing through the region ahead of our next cold front. Temperatures are running 1-2 degrees cooler compared to this time yesterday in the interior regions, and generally 1-2 degrees warmer around the bays and along the immediate coastline. (This evening through Wednesday) Another upper level low will approach the coast tonight and move across on Wednesday brining generally light rainfall to the region.
By Wednesday morning a large gyre will be centered around southeastern Montana, but any eastward advance will be stymied by a blocking pattern in place partially due to the remnants of the tropical cyclone sitting over the Carolinas. This blocking pattern will shunt the Montana low slowly north northeastward into central Canada from Wednesday onward. On Thursday the aforementioned trough/cool front will be moving across our area late in the day, and should again provide a focus for convective initiation.
Aloft, a deep closed low was placed over northern Wyoming, with sharp southerly flow over the Dakotas on the east side of the low. Widespread showers and thunderstorms developed just ahead of the upper low as midlevel heights were falling, and on the nose of a low-level jet that was in southern North Dakota. Highs today will be a bit cooler, in the lower 70s to lower 80s. On Thursday, the upper low is progged to be moving into the southern Canadian Prairies, keeping 20-40% chances for showers and thunderstorms in northern North Dakota. A tight surface pressure gradient will lead to another day of breezy winds sustained at 20 to 25 mph, and cooler air behind the system will lead to highs in the upper 60s to mid 70s.
Evening update: Made some updates based on radar trends for a few lingering bands of light showers associated with mid level instability on the back side of a departing low pressure system. Rain in this area will be decreasing overnight as the low continues to pull away from the region.
Temperatures have warmed into the low 90s, but with dewpoints mixing down into the upper 60s, it doesn't feel too bad outdoors. High pressure develops over south-central Texas late tonight into Wednesday which will spread outward and move overtop the region. Wednesday and Thursday, expect a very small warming trend from one day to the next, bringing daytime highs into the low 90s.
The low level jet never really goes away today, but does seem to fluctuate in intensity.
Upper level low and associated surface wave will spin its way up the northern half of the Piedmont during the short term, opening up into a trough as it tracks towards New England. Short wave energy rotating around the low will keep the threat of some type of afternoon convection in place across portions eastern Kentucky through the period. Model guidance shows a 592mb subtropical high centered over Texas, supporting a positively tilted ridge upstream. Concurrently, a longwave positively tilted trough looks to encompass much of the eastern seaboard.
06Z Aviation Discussion A series of upper-lvl troughs progressing through the Desert Southwest will result in temperatures around 5 to 8 degrees below normal for the remainder of the workweek.
1233 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024 (Tonight through Wednesday night) There is an upper level ridge over the southern plains this afternoon. The low level flow is from the southeast over most of South-Central Texas keeping a warm, moist airmass in place. The upper ridge will remain in place through the short term period. Southeasterly flow in the low levels will also continue.
A warmer and drier patter returns late week through the weekend. ------------------------------------------------------------------- An elongated, east-to-west trough axis remains situated across the mid-Atlantic. This weak forcing is expected to push into portions of Pennsylvania and West Virginia lowlands into the day today, although the main forcing will be confided east of the Alleghenys, with some upslope flow possible for the higher elevations of eastern Tucker County, where we expect the highest precipitation totals. Most-likely total precipitation for the ridges remains a lack-luster couple tenths of an inch, with high confidence storm totals are less than 0. There is a lower probability scenario, whereby the Atlantic trough axis elongates and accelerates easterly flow, pulling more moisture and perhaps some rain chances in while keeping temperatures cooler.
A rex block remains in place over the eastern CONUS with upper ridging over the northeast US and an upper low over the southeast CONUS.
354 AM EDT Wed Sep 18 2024 High pressure will maintain fair dry weather with mild weather for the foreseeable future. Otherwise, dry weather prevails owed to high pressure over the region. Even so, a fairly stout ridge will keep the area precipitation free through this period and mild. Weak low pressure south of New England will move little during the period. Deeper moisture associated with the coastal low will remain east of the area, as a mid level ridge continues to hold over the region.
400 AM EDT Wed Sep 18 2024 An upper level low pressure system over the southern Appalachians will slowly migrate to the east today. High pressure and dry weather will then persist into the weekend. Stacked low pressure over the southern Appalachians to meander slowly east and weaken today. This will result in more favorable radiational cooling conditions leading to lows dipping into the upper 50s to the lower 60s. A vort lobe rotating around the western periphery of mid level trof and an axis of marginal instability may result in the threat for a shower or thunderstorm east of ILN/s area Thursday afternoon.
320 AM EDT Wed Sep 18 2024 Low pressure centered over the southern Appalachians this morning will drift northeast today and Thursday bringing more clouds and precipitation.
205 AM EDT Wed Sep 18 2024 An upper level low pressure system over the southern Appalachians will slowly migrate to the east today. High pressure and dry weather will then persist into the weekend. The center of an upper level low over the southern Appalachians will move very slowly to the southeast tonight. Lows will range from the upper 50s to the lower 60s. Have held a chance of showers in our southeast Wednesday as the low slowly weakens. Clouds will continue to offer slightly cooler afternoon temperatures in this area. Otherwise, partly to mostly cloudy skies will continue with warm afternoon highs in the lower 80s.
High plains convection forced by the ejecting trough through the Central Rockies should remain well to our northwest through tonight.
(Today through Thursday) The only thing that sort of defines this trough axis that has been very slow to move through is in PW values. We have brought precip chances up a bit from the NBM and also tried to give the highest numbers to the areas that look to have the highest potential for sh/ts with help from CAMS and synoptic scale models.
1203 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024 (This evening through Thursday) Eroding Rex block/weakening ridge over the northeast United States has allowed the remnants of Francine to finally exit the area to the east. At the surface, weak high pressure and a clearing sky/light wind/lingering low level moisture from recent rain will yield patches of dense fog later tonight into Wednesday morning. Moving ahead, the Gulf Coast boundary will wash out, and large scale troughing from the northern Plains into the western states will result in ridging over the central/southern Plains. The ridge will build slowly to the east, and this will bring us warmer temperatures, especially on Thursday.