Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
- Showers likely with scattered storms for Sat as a cold front moves through S WI. Its cold front and another vorticity maximum will move through srn WI on Sat. Otherwise, storms will be out of the forecast area by mid to late evening, but models hold onto the low level moisture.
127 PM EDT Fri Aug 16 2024 A cold front will move through the area over the weekend, bringing scattered showers and thunderstorms. A short wave ridge will move east of the forecast area by the end of the day, with large scale height falls expected to impact much of the area along and west of the Appalachians by the end of the period. Max temps should be a little warmer than in previous days. As of 120 PM EDT Friday: A mid level trough will extend from the Great Lakes states south into the Southeastern states for the short range period.
- Warmer weather with little to no impacts is expected for the weekend. Early afternoon satellite shows an upper level low spinning over the WI/MN border, with the northwesterly flow advecting stratus across our northeastern area (mainly SW MN) along with intermittent scattered showers. Looking into the weekend, a ridge of high pressure builds over the southern plains resulting in geopotential heights rising over the northern plains.
At any rate, a weak upper trough will rotate through the region this afternoon, so our storm chances will drop off considerably by this evening and into tomorrow morning before storms refire again tomorrow afternoon.
Morning heating accelerates right on schedule, into the low to middle 90s as of 16Z, aiming for the upper 90s and lower 100s by midafternoon.
A low will descend from the coast of British Columbia today and continue to deepen off the PacNW coast as a ridge builds over the central U.
Clouds continue to linger across central and eastern portions this afternoon from an exiting upper level low. Ridge of high pressure will then diminish clouds through tonight. A weak wave and warm front will lift across the west Saturday morning. Saturday evening through Saturday night, the jet stream shifts to over North Dakota while the warm front stalls.
1220 PM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 (Today through Saturday night) Heights continue to rise over the area today as the center of the upper level ridge continues to build in. Highs this afternoon should be warmer than previous days across the board for most places in the combined Panhandles. Storm initiation should begin in eastern New Mexico and travel southeast across the High Plains. Tomorrow, since the upper high is not forecast to be directly on top of our area, isolated thunderstorms will be possible again during the afternoon and evening timeframe.
Morning heating accelerates right on schedule, into the low to middle 90s as of 16Z, aiming for the upper 90s and lower 100s by midafternoon. This is due to ridging aloft that will persist through Saturday, keeping southerly winds below 10 mph and dew points in the muggy 70s. Otherwise, a slowly approaching frontal boundary will boost compressional heating and temperature maximums into the lower 100s today and tomorrow which, in combination with high dew points, will continue Excessive Heat Warning conditions across more of the area.
Deeper shear is also unimpressive (less than 25kt); we're too close to the upper low for much in the way of mid- level flow. Showers/embedded storms will become more widespread again tonight, as falling heights with the upper low approaching more then compensating for loss of surface-based instability. Reasonably widespread convection continues Saturday, with the upper low slowly transiting northern MI. Pattern Synopsis and Forecast: The large area of upper level low pressure centered across northwest Minnesota will drift across northern Michigan during the day Saturday.
148 PM EDT Fri Aug 16 2024 A combination of a warm front and cold front courtesy of an upper-level disturbance will bring showers and thunderstorms tonight through the weekend. The area remains under the warm sector of a low pressure system moving east across the Great Lakes tonight. An associated cold front will arrive to our west Saturday morning, and move slowly east into Saturday night.
Flow around an elongated area of high pressure is expected to transport this moisture northeastward into the White Mountains region resulting in a round of isolated thunderstorms there. High pressure remains elongated over much of the southern US today, gradually meandering it's way eastward.
Temperatures will be warmer on Saturday with dry and breezy northeast winds across the Columbia Basin, West Plains, and southeast Washington. Today through Saturday Night: Trough is swinging through the region providing isolated to scattered showers across the US/Canadian border, eastern WA and north ID. The trough will continue to move north through the day. The low that is sitting off the coast will push a wave up into Oregon Saturday afternoon.
/14 (Now through Saturday) Latest water vapor imagery shows a ridge of high pressure over the Intermountain West and along the Eastern Seaboard, while a trough digs into the Great Lakes region. The forecast area will remain on the eastern periphery of the ridge through the period, with north/northwest winds in the mid levels. So far this morning, dewpoints have remained in the lower to mid 70s areawide, with temps in the mid to upper 70s leading to a rather muggy overnight period. Lows will fall into the lower 70s along the northern areas with upper 70s along the coast.
1017 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 Upper air data suggests a slightly weaker upper level ridge over the forecast area today. Therefore, will keep decent chances of pops in the forecast for mid to late afternoon into the evening hours especially over the Atchafalaya Basin, spreading westward along the Highway 190 and I-10 corridor, with activity decreasing as it reaches southeast Texas.
620 PM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 (Tonight through Saturday night) The large and dominant subtropical ridge over NM and much of TX remains anchored near the TX/NM border but maintains an E-W secondary ridge axis that sends higher pressure aloft eastward over the Red River Valley. Some amplification of the broader ridge is expected to surge north along the Rockies over the next day, and this should lead to a downtrend on surface wind speeds that have been recently useful to aid in mixing and the lowering of afternoon dewpoints. However, once the first advisory for this upcoming heat wave goes out, it will likely be followed by multiple extensions as that secondary upper ridge axis drifts slowly south into Central TX over the weekend.
615 PM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 (Tonight) Active afternoon of weather is on tap for the Tennessee Valley as a cold front approaches the area from the north and west. Good heating this morning has warmed temperatures into the low to mid 90s as of 18z and they will continue to climb another 2-4 degrees this afternoon.
708 PM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 Dangerous heat remains the primary concern in the near term as our area remains on the eastern periphery of an upper ridge centered over Texas.
709 PM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 (Tonight through Saturday night) Key Messages: - High chance for another Heat Advisory tomorrow across the Coastal Plains, Victoria Crossroads and the Brush Country Not to continue beating a dead horse, but hot conditions will continue through Saturday as upper level ridging holds firm.
956 PM EDT Fri Aug 16 2024 A cold front will move through the area over the weekend, bringing scattered showers and thunderstorms. As of 120 PM EDT Friday: A mid level trough will extend from the Great Lakes states south into the Southeastern states for the short range period.
625 PM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 (This evening through Saturday) The upper ridge has been slowly meandering eastward this morning and expected to be centered over New Mexico by this afternoon. The upper ridge will continue to move northeast into northeastern New Mexico.
556 PM EDT Fri Aug 16 2024 A cold front will move through the area over the weekend, bringing scattered showers and thunderstorms. Storms are having a hard time forming strong deep updrafts as the environment ahead of an approaching sfc trof remains suppressed. An upper ridge is crossing the area and keeping mlvl LRs low-end while dCAPE values remain under 700 J/kg at most. Seeing LSRs upstream from WFO MRX of multiple trees blown down and large hail, so expect the same sort of impacts across the NC mtns thru 02z, altho some uncertainty exists with the high terrain interaction and possible disruptions of unstable inflows. As of 120 PM EDT Friday: A mid level trough will extend from the Great Lakes states south into the Southeastern states for the short range period.
/OAJ/ Dangerous heat remains the primary concern in the near term as our area remains on the eastern periphery of an upper ridge centered over Texas.
Cooler overnight with min temperatures falling into the L70s over the interior and in the M70s near the coast, still U70s for barrier islands.
732 PM EDT Fri Aug 16 2024 A cold front will move through the area over the weekend, bringing scattered showers and thunderstorms. Storms are having a hard time forming strong deep updrafts as the environment ahead of an approaching sfc trof remains suppressed. An upper ridge is crossing the area and keeping mlvl LRs low-end while dCAPE values remain under 700 J/kg at most. Seeing LSRs upstream from WFO MRX of multiple trees blown down and large hail, so expect the same sort of impacts across the NC mtns thru 02z, altho some uncertainty exists with the high terrain interaction and possible disruptions of unstable inflows. As of 120 PM EDT Friday: A mid level trough will extend from the Great Lakes states south into the Southeastern states for the short range period.
624 PM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 (Tonight through Saturday night) The mid-level ridge remains anchored over West Texas through Saturday night, maintaining seasonal mid-August weather with highs in the upper 90s to low 100s.
Minimal rain chances expected courtesy of the drier air, with mostly clear to partly cloudy skies and afternoon highs in the lower 90s.
Deubelbeiss TODAY-TONIGHT: At 1pm, temps in the mid 80s and dewpoints in the low 70s were observed across central Illinois, with west winds around 10-15 mph.
1227 AM CDT Sat Aug 17 2024 (This evening through Saturday) The upper ridge has been slowly meandering eastward this morning and expected to be centered over New Mexico by this afternoon. The upper ridge will continue to move northeast into northeastern New Mexico.
(Today and tonight) Expansive upper level high pressure will continue to be the main driver of regional weather in the near term, with the center of the ridging aloft progged to shift slightly eastward over the next 24 hours. As proven by relatively widespread convection last evening, fairly substantial midlevel moisture still remains trapped beneath the ridging aloft. Most model solutions suggest this feature will continue to play a factor in today's weather, though to a lesser extent compared to days past as the moisture plume continues to dilute beneath the expanding dome of high pressure. In contrast, the high end of guidance was again favored for areas off the Caprock which did not see measurable rainfall yesterday with highs in this region reaching 105 to 109 degrees, and a Heat Advisory is in effect for these locations from noon until 8 PM.
1235 AM CDT Sat Aug 17 2024 (Tonight through Saturday night) The mid-level ridge remains anchored over West Texas through Saturday night, maintaining seasonal mid-August weather with highs in the upper 90s to low 100s.
The high has relocated to a favorable position east of Arizona and has amplified a bit, coinciding with a somewhat unseasonable and stable trough along the west coast.
- Drier, cooler and otherwise low-impact weather is then forecast for the upcoming week.
with some semblance of a warm front extending east across central Lower Michigan. Parent upper level low over northern Wisconsin per water vapor imagery. one short wave trough spun across Michigan earlier today and now extends along the St. Thus rain chances will continue overnight ahead of the approaching upper low. Deeper shear is also unimpressive (less than 25kt); we're too close to the upper low for much in the way of mid- level flow. Showers/embedded storms will become more widespread again tonight, as falling heights with the upper low approaching more then compensating for loss of surface-based instability. Reasonably widespread convection continues Saturday, with the upper low slowly transiting northern MI. Pattern Synopsis and Forecast: The large area of upper level low pressure centered across northwest Minnesota will drift across northern Michigan during the day Saturday.
/NF/ Dangerous heat remains the primary concern in the near term as our area remains on the eastern periphery of an upper ridge centered over Texas.
200 AM EDT Sat Aug 17 2024 A cold front will move through the area over the weekend, bringing scattered showers and thunderstorms. As of 120 PM EDT Friday: A mid level trough will extend from the Great Lakes states south into the Southeastern states for the short range period.
355 AM EDT Sat Aug 17 2024 Occasional periods of showers and thunderstorms will continue through the weekend as a low pressure system moves through the Great Lakes region. High pressure and a drier airmass will then build into the Ohio Valley through the first part of the upcoming work week. A low pressure system will continue to spin slowly east across the central Great Lakes today. A trough axis/cold front extending south from the low will push slowly east into western portions of our area through late afternoon.
Otherwise, northwest flow aloft continues to assert itself across the region this morning, and it will linger for several days thanks to a building upper ridge to the west and a slow-moving trough across the Great Lakes and Northeast. In fact, temperatures in many areas today may even reach a few degrees above average, particularly south of I-70, although a weak reinforcing cold front is likely to suppress temperatures father north. BRC As we head into the work week the upper flow pattern is expected to slowly amplify as the central/western CONUS ridge continues to build and the eastern trough digs further south.
1224 AM CDT Sat Aug 17 2024 (Tonight through Saturday night) Key Messages: - High chance for another Heat Advisory tomorrow across the Coastal Plains, Victoria Crossroads and the Brush Country Not to continue beating a dead horse, but hot conditions will continue through Saturday as upper level ridging holds firm.
Discussion: A trough is deepening over the Ohio Valley today into tonight.
However, there changes are on the way as an upper trough carves southward, squashing the low-level ridge and in turn backing the dry northeasterly flow to a moistening northwesterly flow this afternoon and evening. There, a prefrontal trough may instigate spotty an isolated storm this afternoon. An initially sunny sky and weaker onshore flow will trend temps warmer (around normal) today with highs in the low 90s.
However, the lower humidity will help to keep heat index near actual temperatures and you will definitely feel the difference in the shade.
Upper-level ridging continues to strengthen and remain steadfast across West Central Texas, keeping hot and dry conditions in the forecast for the remainder of the weekend and beyond.
The rest of today will see mostly sunny skies with highs in the low to mid 90s.
953 AM EDT Sat Aug 17 2024 Occasional periods of showers and thunderstorms will continue through the weekend as a low pressure system moves through the Great Lakes region. High pressure and a drier airmass will then build into the Ohio Valley through the first part of the upcoming work week. A low pressure system will continue to spin slowly east across the central Great Lakes today. A trough axis/cold front extending south from the low will push slowly east into western portions of our area through late afternoon. As the upper level low pushes slowly east across the lower Great Lakes on Sunday, the trailing upper level trough axis will push slowly east across our area.
These were associated with an upstream impulse and speed max over north central Illinois moving around the base of a northeastern Wisconsin upper low, seen vividly on H20 imagery. After a break in the convection this morning, CAMS are suggesting more storms will develop this afternoon as another cold front approaches from the northwest and moves through and additional impulses will move through the band of westerlies around the base of the upper low, which is expected to move to Lake Huron tonight. Temperatures this afternoon should be able to rebound back into the 80s, especially over southeastern sections as the cold front should not arrive there until late in the day.
Discussion: A trough is deepening over the Ohio Valley today into tonight. The cold front will move through Sunday morning.
Breezes will slacken from moderate to gentle to light to moderate during the day as a trough deepens over the eastern United States. Periods of variable breezes will veer southwesterly as large scale ridging rebuilds over the central United States.
The overnight period will be reminiscent of previous nights with temperatures only "cooling" slightly into the 70s with some spots along the coast holding in the low 80s. Unfortunately, tomorrow's story will feature more of the same with hot and humid temperatures with the low potential for showers and thunderstorms.
610 AM CDT Sat Aug 17 2024 Today and Tonight: A moist tropical air mass remains in place across the Lower Mississippi River Valley today, with analyzed PW values of 1. Northwest flow between a ridge over the Desert Southwest and low pressure system over the Great Lakes is carrying waves in the jet stream across the Great Plains and interacting with a frontal boundary in the region. Warm advection is ongoing south of the front, helping to bring the heat from the Southwest ridge toward our forecast area.
These storms should dissipate as the low-level jet decreases in intensity this morning. Dangerous heat will continue this weekend as a 597 dam mid-level ridge remains centered across northeast New Mexico and the Oklahoma and Texas panhandles. Heat indices are once again expected to be 110+ deg F across central, east central, and south central Oklahoma, where dew points will be the highest.
622 AM EDT Sat Aug 17 2024 Occasional periods of showers and thunderstorms will continue through the weekend as a low pressure system moves through the Great Lakes region. High pressure and a drier airmass will then build into the Ohio Valley through the first part of the upcoming work week. A low pressure system will continue to spin slowly east across the central Great Lakes today. A trough axis/cold front extending south from the low will push slowly east into western portions of our area through late afternoon. As the upper level low pushes slowly east across the lower Great Lakes on Sunday, the trailing upper level trough axis will push slowly east across our area.
This is due to persistent ridging aloft that will keeping southerly winds below 10 mph and dew points in the muggy 70s. The little relief expected will show up in the form of isolated showers and thunderstorms (30-40% chance) through a weakness in the eastern periphery of the ridge. Otherwise, a slowly approaching frontal boundary will boost compressional heating and temperature maximums into the lower 100s today and tomorrow which, in combination with high dew points, will continue Excessive Heat Warning conditions across more of the area.
Predawn temperatures ranged from the lower 70s where rain had fallen, to the upper 70s/lower 80s across the remainder of the state. High temperatures should range from the lower/mid 90s over N AR, to 95-103 degrees over Cntrl/S/SW AR.
Then, look for 500 mb heights to build over our region leading to warmer temps and suppressing any further convection today. By tomorrow, monsoonal moisture riding the S/SW flow under the ridge will eventually reach southwest MT.
Pattern Synopsis/Pattern Forecast: Most obvious feature of interest on the regional weather analysis early this morning is well defined mid/upper level low pressure working slowly east along the Wisconsin/Upper Michigan line. Embedded impulses rotating counterclockwise around this low, the most defined of which is pivoting into central lower Michigan. Upper level low and its attendant surface reflection will continue to work east, cutting directly across lower Michigan today. Abundant clouds and those showers will result in a minimal diurnal temperature response today, with highs only expected to top out in the lower and middle 70s. And those clouds and showers will help keep readings from falling too much tonight, with lows only bottoming out into the lower and middle 60s.
403 AM CDT Sat Aug 17 2024 Today and Tonight: A moist tropical air mass remains in place across the Lower Mississippi River Valley today, with analyzed PW values of 1. Northwest flow between a ridge over the Desert Southwest and low pressure system over the Great Lakes is carrying waves in the jet stream across the Great Plains and interacting with a frontal boundary in the region. Warm advection is ongoing south of the front, helping to bring the heat from the Southwest ridge toward our forecast area.
We're finally going to see some sub-90 degree temperatures today in the Valley as a fairly impressive closed low deepens off of the coast.
Water vapor imagery showed the deep upper trough a bit farther west across western Wisconsin. Convection will once again be modulated by the diurnal uptick in instability and by short waves rotating around the upper low. Sunday, both the surface and upper lows should be over Lake Huron.
As for Sunday, expect the heat to continue as the upper-level high pressure system keeps itself center right over the Panhandles.
- Drier, cooler and otherwise low-impact weather is then forecast for the upcoming week. This idea is loosely supported by recent RAP13 guidance, which offers non-supercell tornado (NST) parameter values > 1 in areas along/north of I-74, with the highest values staying across the Chicagoland area.
The Subtropical Ridge remains firmly in control over west Texas/eastern New Mexico, and will likely start its inevitable move to the east to center itself over the central part of the state by the end of the weekend.
A mainly dry cold front will move through the region on Sunday with a low chance of rain.
Upper-level ridging continues to strengthen and remain steadfast across West Central Texas, keeping hot and dry conditions in the forecast for the remainder of the weekend and beyond. (Sunday night through next Saturday) Very hot and dry conditions will continue through the next work week due to a strong upper level ridge. An upper level ridge will remain entrenched over our region through the next work week, resulting in continued hot and dry conditions.
A cold front will move into the Mid-South late tonight with some showers and thunderstorms possible over portions of northwest Tennessee.
(This evening through Sunday night) High pressure will continue to build over the Panhandles for the rest of the weekend. The high will continue to strengthen and temperatures will remain on the hot side, with widespread 100's expected tomorrow. Tomorrow will be similar but most areas should have almost no chance for storms as the high will be very well centered over the Panhandles.
(Tonight through Sunday night) Upper-level ridging along the Rocky Mountains will continue to build through the period, generally supporting broad subsidence and relatively dry mid-level flow across the region. At the surface, high pressure is expected to remain in control across the Gulf of Mexico, with a weak pressure gradient across Deep South Texas.