Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
- Tuesday another system brings a cold front through the area with widespread precip possible. - Behind the cold front temperatures come down slightly but are still above average, in the upper 60s to low 70s. As ridging aloft shifts to the east, another trof continues to dig over the Four Corners region. A couple of disturbances round their way through the trof and bring varied precip chances to the area starting today. The next disturbance rolls through on Tuesday and swings a cold front through the region. Behind the front temperatures will be cooler but still slightly above average in the upper 60s to lower 70s through the end of the weekend.
Outside of showers in the White Mountains this morning, warmer and drier conditions are expected for today and Tuesday.
Tonight - Tuesday Night: Periods of Showers Continue Bulk of weather in the short term will be defined by short waves ejecting northward out of large western trough.
346 AM EST Mon Nov 4 2024 Expect warmer temperatures and a few showers today through Tuesday in the strong southerly flow between high pressure to the east and a cold front to the west.
1140 PM CST Sun Nov 3 2024 Warm and windy conditions will persist tonight and Monday ahead of a cold front.
1235 AM EST Mon Nov 4 2024 As high pressure to the east of the region moves further away, southerly flow will become established and increase for the early part of the week.
In the upper/mid levels, a ridge of high pressure is holding over Florida today and Tuesday, while a deep trough crosses the Rockies into the southern Plains. At the surface, broad high pressure to the north of Florida is favoring breezy easterly flow that will persist through the first half of the week. By midweek, Potential Tropical Cyclone 18 will be lifting northwest out into the eastern Gulf of Mexico and is expected to be at hurricane strength, leading to increasing rain coverage and winds building winds.
This all means a little less rain and likely slightly warmer conditions without the previously expected cool pool push with the thunderstorms.
Remainder of short term forecast is unchanged, expecting brief warming Monday before a cold front with rain and snow showers arrives Monday night and Tuesday, followed by clearing, windy, and colder later Tuesday and Tuesday night under strong northerly flow aloft.
1122 PM CST Sun Nov 3 2024 - Chances of light rain showers and thunderstorms persist through Monday evening as a cold front continues to push through the region.
sub- SVR convection continues across WRN/NWRN sections of the CWA along/south of a warm front lifting north into MO. with the highest threat across WRN/NWRN sections of the state. chances for convection will be limited to ERN/SERN sections as the cold front moves SE into that region of the state.
1100 PM CST Sun Nov 3 2024 - Chances of light rain showers and thunderstorms persist through Monday evening as a cold front continues to push through the region.
- Cold front arrives Monday night, with cooler conditions Tuesday through the end of the week.
The forecast through the remainder of the night is on track with the idea of widespread coverage north of the lifting warm front which is currently across far SE OK. A severe weather threat may remain with storms persisting nearer the warm front overnight, however the more widespread overnight hazard will be the areas of heavy rain and associated flooding.
1233 AM EST Mon Nov 4 2024 An upper level ridge will build along the East Coast through Tuesday.
(Today) The main weather of interest today will be elevated winds through the duration of the near term as we remain sandwiched between high pressure to our east and an approaching low pressure system to our west. The approaching low pressure system, currently located in the Great Plains will allow for additional tightening of the pressure gradient supporting elevated gradient winds through the day. Aside from winds, the remainder of the near term forecast will be dictated by remaining on western periphery of high pressure both at the surface and aloft. High pressure will support dry conditions and highs in the high 70s this afternoon.
937 PM MST Sun Nov 3 2024 - Some mountain snow today with colder temperatures behind a cold front.
141 AM EST Mon Nov 4 2024 An upper level ridge will build along the East Coast through Tuesday.
1252 AM EST Mon Nov 4 2024 High pressure will provide dry weather and a warming trend through Tuesday.
- Cold air behind the front and some additional snowfall will keep afternoon highs suppressed today and morning lows Tuesday will be well below freezing across the region.
- Much colder again behind a cold front late Tuesday night.
939 AM EST Mon Nov 4 2024 High pressure will provide dry weather and a warming trend through Tuesday.
The upper trough will start to lift into the southern Plains states by this evening, then into the central Plains Tuesday morning. A strong mid-level jet will set up just west of here overnight, with a severe line of storms expected to develop under the right entrance region of this jet/ahead of a cold front from eastern Oklahoma into central Missouri. Periodic chances for showers and some storms will continue through the day Tuesday until the cold front pushes east of here by the evening hours. After an active few days, surface ridging will bring a drier and less windy period for the middle to end of the week.
Center of 500 mb trough is over eastern Saskatchewan and eastern Montana, then south into eastern Arizona. A 500 mb low in the south ene of this trough along the Arizona/New Mexico border will move northeast toward Wisconsin Tuesday, as another 500 mb short wavfe moves southeast from B. Additional short wave energy to dive south on backside of the Montana/Dakotas upper low into the southwestern U.
This will allow a warm front to push through the area during the morning, with a quick increase in rain chances along the coast, especially north of Gold Beach (60-80% chance). Some light rain showers could also break out (30-50% chance) Monday morning from the coast ranges to the Cascades, but most will hold off til afternoon as the cold front moves onshore and quickly through the area by Monday evening. Despite the high PoPs for the coast and mountains, precip amounts will be meager, in the 0.
(Now through Tuesday night) Upper ridging remains dominant across the far southeastern U. A large upper trough across the central CONUS ejects northeastward into the Great Lakes region into Tuesday night, with an attendant surface cold front gradually washing out and stalling as it progresses into western Mississippi Tuesday. Afternoon highs top out in the lower to middle 80's and overnight lows in the lower to middle 60's inland and middle to upper 60's nearer the coast.
633 AM EST Mon Nov 4 2024 Expect warmer temperatures and a few showers today through Tuesday in the strong southerly flow between high pressure to the east and a cold front to the west.
Updated sky cover grids for the hole in the low clouds that has formed in the Red River valley from Hillsboro north to Grafton. Center of 500 mb trough is over eastern Saskatchewan and eastern Montana, then south into eastern Arizona. A 500 mb low in the south ene of this trough along the Arizona/New Mexico border will move northeast toward Wisconsin Tuesday, as another 500 mb short wavfe moves southeast from B. Additional short wave energy to dive south on backside of the Montana/Dakotas upper low into the southwestern U.
641 AM EST Mon Nov 4 2024 High pressure will extend into the area from the northeast. High pressure centered over New England ridging into the southeastern US. Isentropic lift is evident on the southern side of the ridging high this morning leading to some light showers in Georgia along the Savannah River. These clouds will keep temperatures near seasonal average across the northwest, in the low 70s to mid 70s in the southeast. Upper level ridge off the southeast coast with trough in the midwest. Stayed close to the consensus for temperatures, cooler northwest of CAE. Lows in the low to mid 60s. Upper level ridge flattens over the eastern CONUS with deep low in the Desert Southwest.
Our pattern will remain active through the period with effects from our current system lasting through tomorrow, and then additional precip from another upper low to end the week and into the start of the weekend. Initially, much of the dense fog has lifted with increased rainfall and the surface warm front now to our north. However the parent long wave trough currently over the Rockies will finally eject into the central and southern Plains tonight. Have boosted wind gusts to 25-35 mph east as the low level circulation strengthens, and examination of soundings via the Bufkit mixing algorithms suggest higher bursts of 35-40 mph are possible depending on the degree of mixing.
223 AM MST Mon Nov 4 2024 KEY MESSAGES: - There is a chance for a mix of light rain and light freezing rain late tonight and Tuesday morning.
This boundary will begin lifting north as a warm front over the next few hours, with all or nearly all of the forecast area in the warm sector by midday. Temperatures today will warm into the 70s following the passage of the warm front.
Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen is forecast to become a tropical storm today as it moves north to northwest through the western Caribbean Sea and will strengthen to a hurricane over the northwest Caribbean. Uncertainty in the intensity and track remains as the Potential Tropical Cyclone still does not yet have a well-defined center of circulation. Regardless, potential impacts for the Keys, mainly the Lower Keys, could include flooding over the oceanside, tropical storm force winds, thundery squalls with localized wind gusts of 50 to 60 mph, and locally heavy rainfall beginning as early as Tuesday afternoon. Conditions will begin to improve as Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen continues into the Gulf of Mexico and away from our forecast area.
Southerly winds remain elevated 10-20 mph overnight with decreasing wind over the west during the morning hours as a dry line/cold front approaches from the west. The upper level low is located over central NM this morning and will begin to lift into the Central Plains through the day. Clearing skies and cooler temperatures are expected Tuesday with near or slightly below seasonable values for high temperatures. Highs in the upper 60s to low 70s are expected in the Hill Country and southern Edwards Plateau with highs from the low to upper 70s elsewhere.
Broad and deep troughing is very slowly moving eastward out of the Rocky Mountain region. Ahead of the trough there is a jet maxima over eastern TX/AR and IA/MN with a broadly diffluent region rounding the top of a mid Gulf of Mexico ridge. This has created a sharp height/pressure gradient in the lower atmosphere leading to a relatively uncommon overnight breeze, and fairly strong moisture and warm air advection. This area of diffluence persists but becomes more ill- defined later this afternoon as a 120-130 kt upper jet maxima forms over KS/MO as the parent trough begins to approach. The surface cold front then very slowly moves through the day on Tuesday.
UPDATE Updated sky cover grids for the hole in the low clouds that has formed in the Red River valley from Hillsboro north to Grafton. Center of 500 mb trough is over eastern Saskatchewan and eastern Montana, then south into eastern Arizona. A 500 mb low in the south end of this trough along the Arizona/New Mexico border will move northeast toward Wisconsin Tuesday, as another 500 mb short wave moves southeast from B. Additional short wave energy to dive south on backside of the Montana/Dakotas upper low into the southwestern U.
1037 AM EST Mon Nov 4 2024 Expect warmer temperatures and a few showers today through Tuesday in the strong southerly flow between high pressure to the east and a cold front to the west.
301 PM EST Mon Nov 4 2024 A warm front approaches New England tonight into early Tuesday bringing light precipitation, mainly in the form of rain this evening and tonight.
As the low steadily deepens during this time frame the moisture transport will increase due to both an increase in wind speeds in the lowest 5,000 feet and an increase in moisture (PWATS increase to 1. Another burst of heavier rain will occur Tuesday afternoon and evening along and ahead of the cold front.
Updated at 154 PM CST Mon Nov 4 2024 - Showers diminishing this evening then becoming blustery behind a cold front.
Some sunshine is peeking through now and again, so temperatures have warmed into the low to mid 80s areawide.
112 PM EST Mon Nov 4 2024 Expect warmer temperatures and a few showers today through Tuesday in the strong southerly flow between high pressure to the east and a cold front to the west.
Most of the precip (with snow above 4500 feet) will be in the higher elevations across the north, from Baker County into central Idaho, where snowfall totals of 1 to 3 inches are expected above 5000 feet through this evening.
1146 AM EST Mon Nov 4 2024 * A strong upper level ridge will keep conditions mainly dry and winds slightly gusty through Tuesday.
207 PM CST Mon Nov 4 2024 Through Tuesday: Deep layer southerly flow continues downstream of an upper trough over the central CONUS. It has also been quite windy owing to the pressure gradient between the advancing cold front to the west and ridging centered along the Atlantic coast. As the cold front approaches tomorrow, one or more clusters of showers and thunderstorms will move into or develop over the western half of the area through the morning hours. Most locations should be able to handle rain amounts on the higher end of that range as long as precip rates are not excessive.
- Tomorrow a cold front slowly moves through the area bringing widespread precip. A large trof is ejecting out of the Desert Southwest and into the Central Plains through tomorrow afternoon. Precip chances start to creep back up in the pre-dawn hours as a cold front approaches. This cold front slowly moves through the area tomorrow and brings widespread showers with it across the area.
1235 PM EST Mon Nov 4 2024 - Occasional rain and a few storms through Tuesday - Potential for showers over the weekend High pressure is located over New England this morning with a combination cold front/stationary front stretching north/south in the Plains from Minnesota to Texas.
230 PM EST Mon Nov 4 2024 Stacked ridging continues to hold over Florida through Tuesday, while a deep upper trough slowly moves from the Rockies into Plains region.
/13 (Now through Tuesday) Upper ridging remains dominant across the far southeastern U. A large upper trough across the central CONUS ejects northeastward into the Great Lakes region into Tuesday night, with an attendant surface cold front gradually washing out and stalling as it progresses into western Mississippi Tuesday. Afternoon highs top out in the lower to middle 80's and overnight lows in the lower to middle 60's inland and middle to upper 60's nearer the coast.
1202 PM EST Mon Nov 4 2024 - Occasional rain and a few storms through Tuesday - Potential for showers over the weekend High pressure is located over New England this morning with a combination cold front/stationary front stretching north/south in the Plains from Minnesota to Texas.
Cooler weather returns for the end of the week but it will still be above normal. Thereafter cold frontal rains will overspread wrn zones Tue aftn yet weaken ewd into Tue evening as cold front weakens. Cooler and dry weather follows post frontal Wed-Sat as sfc ridging becomes entrenched across the Great Lakes.
1052 AM CST Mon Nov 4 2024 (Rest of Today) Cloud cover has increased early this morning associated along a slow-moving cold front well to our west across the Southern Plains and Ozarks. Closer to home, dry (rain-free) conditions will continue thanks to subsidence from a stout subtropical ridge to our east. Southerly flow, however, will help to maintain and reinforce this warm air mass -- and even make it feel a tad humid as dewpoints rise into the low to mid 60s. Combined with some peeks of sunshine, these breezy southerly winds will help push highs into the upper 70s in most locations once again, with a few spots reaching the lower 80s.
(The rest of today ) Warm front currently situated along/just north of the I-40 corridor and was slowly lifting north as of mid morning. Scattered showers/storms continue mainly north of the warm front this morning. Additional storms to the west are expected to form into a squall line along/ahead of a cold front as it moves into E OK this afternoon. Support will be aided by an upper trough lifting into the plains this afternoon.
As these weak troughs move ashore, a few showers will be possible, along with increases in cloud coverage. Lows Tonight will range from the middle 60s inland, to the lower 70s coast.
IF snow were to mix in, the best chance looks to be in portions of southwestern MN along the Buffalo Ridge, and later on in north-central MN as the system moves north into a colder airmass after sunset. Where this band sets up is going to have a dramatic impact on who sees the highest totals again though, with a westward shift favoring areas in western/central MN and an eastward shift favoring locations in eastern MN & western WI.
Have blended in some slightly cooler guidance in the heart of the wedge where it may not mix completely out for MaxT's on Tuesday.
(Rest of today through Tuesday) A large trough over the central portion of the country is driving a steady southerly flow across the southeast states.
Temperatures along the Island Chain are in the lower to mid 80s with dew points in the lower 70s. The 12z morning sounding shows some dry air in the lowest levels with a shallow moist layer between 800 and 725 mb. Above 725 mb, a vast amount of dry air is present due to the upper level ridging overhead.
Temperatures on Tuesday will remain seasonable for those behind the cold front to slightly above normal values for our far southeast zones where the cold front might not clear.
- Cold front arrives tonight, with cooler conditions Tuesday through the end of the week.
1128 AM CST Mon Nov 4 2024 (The rest of today ) Warm front currently situated along/just north of the I-40 corridor and was slowly lifting north as of mid morning. Scattered showers/storms continue mainly north of the warm front this morning. Additional storms to the west are expected to form into a squall line along/ahead of a cold front as it moves into E OK this afternoon. Support will be aided by an upper trough lifting into the plains this afternoon.
The mid-level synoptic pattern consists of a closed low moving from eastern New Mexico toward the Texas panhandle. Tonight, however, another band of rain looks to impact central and north-central KS as the upper low moves over, with drier weather more likely across eastern KS. In the meantime, another deep closed low will develop over the southwestern CONUS. A few models show an initial mid-level low and associated vort max moving out over the High Plains of KS/NE as another digs into the Desert Southwest.
245 PM EST Mon Nov 4 2024 High pressure will remain wedged down the east side of the Appalachians through Tuesday.
1046 AM EST Mon Nov 4 2024 * A strong upper level ridge will keep conditions mainly dry and winds slightly gusty through Tuesday.
114 PM MST Mon Nov 4 2024 An active weather pattern will help to keep the Desert Southwest cooler than normal through most of the week, while generally dry conditions will prevail. Current atmospheric analysis shows the potent trough that helped provide some showers and thunderstorms to south-central Arizona over the weekend now centered over New Mexico. With negative height anomalies holding onto their influence over the region, temperatures this afternoon will continue to be below normal for this time of year, with highs across the lower deserts ranging generally in the lower to middle 70s. A slight warmup is anticipated for Tuesday as regional heights aloft increase but afternoon highs will still run below normal, ranging from the lower to upper 70s, with perhaps a few locations, mainly out in SE California, reaching 80 degrees.
1150 AM EST Mon Nov 4 2024 High pressure will provide dry weather and a warming trend through Tuesday.
201 PM MST Mon Nov 4 2024 - Cooler and unsettled through mid-week - Light snow over northeastern WY and Black Hills Tue/Wed - Relatively high uncertainty continues for potential upper low for the end of the week into the weekend Water vapor imagery shows an upper trough over the central CONUS. The highest likelihood of accumulating snow remains over the northern Black Hills, where some weak upslope enhancement is expected through the morning hours, bringing an inch or two of accumulation. With cold air in place, there may be some pockets of freezing rain across portions of the NE WY plains into NW SD, but ice accumulations will be minimal at best. The upper trough will deepen Tuesday night across the western CONUS.
(This evening through Tuesday) High pressure will move off the eastern coast with low and mid level winds from the south and southeast, bringing plenty of moisture advection and low level clouds to the area beginning tonight through Tuesday afternoon. Temperatures will remain well above normal for this time of year, for both low temperatures tonight and high temperatures Tuesday afternoon with the low clouds over the area tonight and the low and mid level flow bringing plenty of warm air advection through the short term.
439 PM MST Mon Nov 4 2024 - Cooler and unsettled through mid-week - Light snow over northeastern WY and Black Hills Tue/Wed - Relatively high uncertainty continues for potential upper low for the end of the week into the weekend Water vapor imagery shows an upper trough over the central CONUS. The highest likelihood of accumulating snow remains over the northern Black Hills, where some weak upslope enhancement is expected through the morning hours, bringing an inch or two of accumulation. With cold air in place, there may be some pockets of freezing rain across portions of the NE WY plains into NW SD, but ice accumulations will be minimal at best. The upper trough will deepen Tuesday night across the western CONUS.
If the clouds move out as expected it creates an environment for fog development as the cooler temperatures and recent rainfall will saturate the air near the surface. If the clouds remain in place overnight we may have slightly warmer overnight temperatures than forecast and fog development will be less likely as radiational cooling wont be maximized. Tomorrow, a low pressure system moves southeast of our forecast area. A few ensemble members bring the low pressure system close enough for some sprinkles in West Central Minnesota however with little to no forcing, the most likely scenario is that some mid to high level clouds are pushed into our region before moving off later that night.
537 PM CST Mon Nov 4 2024 Warm and humid weather will give way to gusty winds and thunderstorms tomorrow with the passage of a cold front.
(This evening through Tuesday night) We are stuck in an interesting pattern for this time of year that is holding our daytime highs somewhat warmer than normal, normal being in the low to mid 70s. This is due to the persistence of the Bermuda high reaching just far enough west to affect us and hold the effects of a trough centered over the western US just west of us.
545 PM CST Mon Nov 4 2024 Updated at 532 PM CST Mon Nov 4 2024 - Showers diminishing this evening then becoming blustery behind a cold front.
Dry and slightly warmer conditions return on Tuesday.
There is a very low (<10%) chance of light freezing rain closer to the ND border overnight.
642 PM CST Mon Nov 4 2024 Through Tuesday: Deep layer southerly flow continues downstream of an upper trough over the central CONUS. It has also been quite windy owing to the pressure gradient between the advancing cold front to the west and ridging centered along the Atlantic coast. As the cold front approaches tomorrow, one or more clusters of showers and thunderstorms will move into or develop over the western half of the area through the morning hours. Most locations should be able to handle rain amounts on the higher end of that range as long as precip rates are not excessive.