Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Will need to watch for more flurry or light snow activity, mainly across northern WI, overnight into Sunday as flow turns northerly over Lake Superior and the low levels saturate back up. Lows tonight will range from the single digits below zero across parts of central and north central WI to the single digits above zero across eastern WI (slightly warmer near Lake Michigan).
253 AM MST Sat Jan 4 2025 Quiet weather conditions, although with cooler temperatures, will continue through the weekend.
925 mb temperatures will are progged to range from -13 to -17 C, and afternoon highs will only reach the lower to mid teens. An upper level trough presently situated through the Intermountain West will push eastward through the day, with a closed low developing over the western portions of NE and KS by tonight. With our area firmly planted within the 925 mb thermal trough, Sunday will be another very cold day with highs in the single digits and teens.
510 AM CST Sat Jan 4 2025 Updated at 504 AM CST Sat Jan 4 2025 - Low clouds and patchy dense fog will continue through this morning, with warmer and breezy conditions this afternoon.
Gusty northwesterly winds continue along the North Shore this morning, as cold air flows lee of the higher terrain parallel to the shoreline. VFR conditions are expected through the period as high pressure dominates the pattern over the area.
1135 AM CST Sat Jan 4 2025 Updated at 1130 AM CST Sat Jan 4 2025 - Low clouds and patchy dense fog will continue through this morning, with warmer and breezy conditions this afternoon.
Dew points have come down considerably with values currently in the lower 50s. A reinforcing cold front passed over the nearshore waters last night, ushering in fresh north to northeasterly breezes.
302 PM EST Sat Jan 4 2025 - Northwest gales to 40 kt and moderate to heavy freezing spray is expected into early Sunday morning over central and eastern Lake Superior. Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb trough in the Rockies and a deep trough in the ern U. with ridging across the plains. The trough in the Rockies moves into the central and southern plains by 12z Sun. Strong positive midlevel height anomaly over southern Greenland through most of the coming week will keep the eastern CONUS under midlevel troughing with the Great Lakes under chilly NW flow.
And with the warm front already appearing to make a move north slightly in the visible imagery decided to add at least patchy fog for tonight. /24/ (Sunday Night through Saturday) Aforementioned cold front will dissect the area from northwest to southeast as we move into Sunday night. As a result, temperatures will drastically fall Sunday night into the upper teens across our northern zones to the lower and mid 20s elsewhere.
A widespread area of freezing drizzle has developed from Kansas into central Nebraska north of the surface front in northern Oklahoma with expanding travel issues. The highest precipitation rates in southern Iowa will be associated with lift coincident with strong moisture transport north into the system.
1212 PM PST Sat Jan 4 2025 * High pressure builds over the area this weekend, bringing the return of valley inversion with light precipitation chances toward the Oregon border. * After a seasonal dry weekend, a reinforcing cold front may bring light shower chances and increased east to northeast winds early in the new week. Ridging off the PacNW coast builds today and through this weekend, bringing light winds, near normal temperatures, and valley inversions.
1111 AM CST Sat Jan 4 2025 - Freezing drizzle starting This Morning - Icy mix will transition to snow and blowing snow during the late evening and overnight. NAM 3km point poundings at 15z this morning shows 1 km deep sub freezing saturated layer with a curved hodograph (turbulent shear) at the top of the mixing layer. This layer doesnât budge all day â setting up the environment to persistent areas of freezing drizzle though the day. With expected amounts of freezing drizzle/rain in the tenth of an inch and higher with snowfall of at least 3-4 inches in top of this ice, the winter storm warning has been expanded roughly from Scott City to Garden, Dodge and Pratt where this mix of wintery precipitation will make travel treacherous overnight and early Sunday.
257 PM CST Sat Jan 4 2025 - Freezing drizzle, freezing rain, and freezing fog will be possible through this evening with some accumulation - Precipitation changes over to snow overnight.
Updated at 246 PM CST Sat Jan 4 2025 - A cold front tonight will bring much colder temperatures tomorrow, along with breezy north winds.
The rest of the day will be pleasant and also warmer as the overall synoptic pattern amplifies.
The midlevel trough continues to sweep east across the state this afternoon, spreading light snow to large areas of central Wyoming. Behind this system, a brief day of northerly flow sets up as a trough drops down the west coast.
Temperatures will quickly drop into the 30s and 40s, and some areas in the northeastern counties should reach freezing. Low temperatures in the southwestern counties were raised into the lower 40s to account for the earlier arrival of clouds. Scattered shower activity and rain chances should continue to increase across the forecast area through the late morning and the early afternoon as a warm sector becomes established over the Lower Mississippi Valley. As a powerful 500 mb trough approaches from the west, a convective line is expected to move across Mississippi during the afternoon and early evening, but this should remain just west of the AL/MS state line through 6 PM.
Despite the full sunshine we have been enjoying, northerly winds have won out and kept temperatures on the cooler side. Looking at visible satellite we have a cu field located along a convergence zone situated on the southeastern periphery of a ridge. Said ridge will slide east this evening and overnight.
Additional accumulations between a trace to 4 inches are expected, the highest occurring across south- central South Dakota. Currently have accumulations ranging from a dusting to 4 inches, the highest occurring across south-central South Dakota. So, bundle up if heading outdoors! Cold temperatures continue through mid-week, as an arctic high pressure builds across the region.
Quiet weather conditions, although with cooler temperatures, will continue through the weekend.
Expect calmer conditions for Sunday into the start of the work week with the exception of the lower Colorado River Valley, which will remain gusty.
That changes as we continue into the afternoon and tonight as the moisture depth continues to shrink as high pressure builds in from the west. As the morning wears on, the upper trough over Quebec will lift north which will allow warmer and drier air to advect north toward the lake. Mostly cloudy skies will continue however and highs will only reach the lower 20s.
539 PM CST Sat Jan 4 2025 - Freezing drizzle, freezing rain, and freezing fog will be possible through this evening with some accumulation - Precipitation changes over to snow overnight.
622 PM EST Sat Jan 4 2025 - Northwest gales to 40 kt and moderate to heavy freezing spray is expected into early Sunday morning over central and eastern Lake Superior. Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb trough in the Rockies and a deep trough in the ern U. with ridging across the plains. The trough in the Rockies moves into the central and southern plains by 12z Sun. Strong positive midlevel height anomaly over southern Greenland through most of the coming week will keep the eastern CONUS under midlevel troughing with the Great Lakes under chilly NW flow.
Tomorrow night will still be cold, but roughly 5 degrees warmer wind chills.
Rain showers will move across the region late tonight ahead of a low pressure system. This low pressure system will move across the Mid-South on Sunday. Temperatures will be warmer on Sunday with highs in the 50s and 60s. A strong cold front will move through Sunday night and may change rain over to snow showers and freezing drizzle across northern portions of the Mid- South.
Radar is showing stratiform steady precipitation increasing over the area as a warm front moves into the area. Weak upper ridging will build in Sunday, but another warm front will move through bringing mainly light precipitation mainly along and west of the Cascades.
551 PM CST Sat Jan 4 2025 Rain showers will move across the region late tonight ahead of a low pressure system. This low pressure system will move across the Mid-South on Sunday. Temperatures will be warmer on Sunday with highs in the 50s and 60s. A strong cold front will move through Sunday night and may change rain over to snow showers and freezing drizzle across northern portions of the Mid- South.
545 PM CST Sat Jan 4 2025 Updated at 525 PM CST Sat Jan 4 2025 - A cold front tonight will bring much colder temperatures tomorrow, along with breezy north winds.
- A colder low pressure system looks to drop into the region by mid week bringing more snow to the mountains and pushing temperatures below normal. Ahead of that trough strong winds have promoted the mixing down of warmer temperatures aloft. Dynamics along with orographics will support moderate to heavy snow it the highest elevations. Temperatures overall will be cooler tomorrow with clouds for the northeast half of the area.
Cooler temperatures are expected on Sunday, with a slight warm up for Monday.
Northwest winds, following the departure of a low-pressure system, will gradually diminish by 5 PM across the western Magic Valley and southern Twin Falls County. Two more troughs will bring additional precipitation to the region starting tonight and continuing through Monday. The first trough will bring light rain and snow to southeast Oregon beginning around 5 PM MST and will spread into southwest Idaho by 11 PM MST. In the Treasure Valley, the highest chance for rain will occur early Sunday morning between 4 AM and 10 AM MST. The second trough, expected early Monday morning, will be stronger and move northwest to southeast across central Oregon into northwestern Nevada. However, if the trough shifts further east, areas like the Snake River Plain and Central Idaho mountains could see the higher amounts.
Travel impacts will still be possible along with areas of blowing and drifting especially on the ridgetops with gusty winds in addition to the lake effect streamers. The places that we continue higher PoPs Mon night are the far NW where lake effect-favorable flow returns and in the SW where the snow may not end for another 2 days thanks to the upper low passing overhead and help from the lakes. Main changes was to lower some POPS a bit during the mid to late week, and a little warmer on some temperatures.
A cold front will approach on Monday, with a period of impacts expected at area terminals as the front pushes through.
1218 AM EST Sun Jan 5 2025 - Northwest gales to 40 kt and moderate to heavy freezing spray is expected into early Sunday morning over central and eastern Lake Superior. Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb trough in the Rockies and a deep trough in the ern U. with ridging across the plains. The trough in the Rockies moves into the central and southern plains by 12z Sun. Strong positive midlevel height anomaly over southern Greenland through most of the coming week will keep the eastern CONUS under midlevel troughing with the Great Lakes under chilly NW flow. Otherwise, look for temperatures to trend ever-so-slightly warmer Sunday through Monday, with highs in the teens to low 20s and lows in the teens and single digits.
With the northerly flow off the relatively warmer waters of Lake Superior, there will be a slight modification in high temperatures Sunday, with readings in the teens to lower 20s.
The high res models show a break developing mid to late evening before the next round of precipitation arrives for Monday morning. This round of precipitation is associated with a weak upper level low embedded within the northwest flow.
Currently have accumulations ranging from a dusting to 4 inches, the highest occurring across south-central South Dakota. So, bundle up if heading outdoors! Cold temperatures continue through mid-week, as an arctic high pressure builds across the region.
04Z ensembles keep the measurable snow south or east of our area, but we'll like have flurries with the low level temperatures at -10 to -17 where saturated. Ridging an dry air is forecast for Monday with increasing high clouds.
Radar is showing stratiform steady precipitation increasing over the area as a warm front moves into the area.
20Z water vapor imagery shows the upper wave moving into the central Rockies while surface obs place a cold front across central OK and into the Ozarks. Moisture advection up and over the cold air at the surface has already caused freezing drizzle to become more widespread and numerous difficulties with travel. More prolonged freezing rain and sleet along and south of I-35 is expected to keep snow totals more manageable.
825 PM PST Sat Jan 4 2025 Patchy to dense freezing fog is developing in the Martis Valley and Sierra Valley tonight. /issued 1212 PM PST Sat Jan 4 2025/ * High pressure builds over the area this weekend, bringing the return of valley inversion with light precipitation chances toward the Oregon border. * After a seasonal dry weekend, a reinforcing cold front may bring light shower chances and increased east to northeast winds early in the new week. Ridging off the PacNW coast builds today and through this weekend, bringing light winds, near normal temperatures, and valley inversions.
Northerly gusts continue along the lower Colorado River Valley today.
Large scale ascent has increased significantly as the upper low approaches eastern KS. As it does so, an enhanced band of frontogenesis will develop north and northwest of the low across northeast KS today, helping to increase hourly precipitation rates. A gradual transition from freezing rain (mainly near and south of I- 35) to sleet and eventually to all snow is still expected throughout the morning hours.
528 AM CST Sun Jan 5 2025 A low pressure system will move through the Mid-South today and bring windy conditions, showers, thunderstorms, and wintry precipitation to the region.
Synoptic Pattern: A dominating large upper level low over eastern CAN exists this morning. A slight lowing of upper heights over northern MI will be seen today as an embedded wave begins to rotate around the upper closed low.
The upper-level pattern is beginning to amplify, eroding the high pressure that has been in control. This warm and humid setup will continue until tomorrow when a trough axis propagating through the Ohio River valley brings an attendant cold front through the region.
After 7 nam, showers should become more focused over the higher elevations before coming to an end by about noon. Monday will be around a degree or 2 warmer than today, but still quite cold.
A cold front will move through the region tomorrow, with localized impacts starting after 12Z. The upper-level pattern is beginning to amplify, eroding the high pressure that has been in control. This warm and humid setup will continue until tomorrow when a trough axis propagating through the Ohio River valley brings an attendant cold front through the region.
- This morning the wintry mix of light snow combined with freezing fog or blowing snow to keep surfaces slick.
520 AM CST Sun Jan 5 2025 Updated at 511 AM CST Sun Jan 5 2025 - Much cooler today with gusty north-northwesterly winds.
A low pressure system will move through the Mid-South today and bring windy conditions, showers, thunderstorms, and wintry precipitation to the region.
pdf There is some residual freezing or subfreezing temperatures inland areas north of I-10 as of 915 am, and should rise above freezing allowing the warning to expire at 9 am. Lows tonight will be much warmer than last night with southerly flow on tap. High pressure over the region will gradually shift off towards the Atlantic through the afternoon hours. A warm front will move northward from the Panhandle region with some high resolution models pushing the eastern part of this feature toward the western part of the Altamaha River Basin/ Ocmulgee River Basin during the mid evening hours. A cold front will approach from the west tonight and pass through the region on Monday. Much colder temperatures are expected the rest of the week behind the cold front.
Canadian high pressure continues to settle into the region for tonight, and with relatively light winds under partly cloudy skies, it will be a cold night with lows falling into the single digits below zero.
This shift has also resulted in a southward shift of the heaviest corridor of sleet which now looks roughly along and south of I-70 with the highest remaining freezing rain amounts south of Highway 50. We will likely see thundersnow/sleet/freezing rain this morning into the afternoon.
This will include moderate rain from late this afternoon through the evening producing the highest amounts of around a half inch to a little over an inch for the coast and Cascades.
Updated at 309 AM CST Sun Jan 5 2025 - Much cooler today with gusty north-northwesterly winds.
521 AM CST Sun Jan 5 2025 - A strong cold front arrives today, bringing much cooler conditions across the area.
Lows across the island chain reached the lower 60s and dew points measured in the upper 50s. While the worst of this mid latitude cyclone will remain far north of the Florida Keys, it will cause changes to our weather. A ridge located over the Florida Peninsula will be forced east and its associated high pressure system over the eastern seaboard will weaken and sink southeast into the Atlantic.
- A strong cold front arrives today, bringing much cooler conditions across the area.
- Warmer for the latter half of the week with windy conditions in the foothills. Weak mid level ridging is expected over the region today with associated warm air advection while the upper flow remains northwesterly. So we should see warmer temperatures today, especially for areas west of Rosebud County. Areas to the east will still be under the influence of southeasterly surface flow due to the high pressure over the Dakotas. Over the lower elevations we may see an increasing chance of light snow develop late, particularly in a convergent baroclinic zone from Golden Valley through Billings to the Big Horns. The short wave trough will track over the CWA Monday increasing the chance of snow across the area.
Temperatures will warm into the teens and 20s, close to 30 degrees for highs mid-week with the arrival of some short-lived ridging.
A warm front this morning will maintain precipitation, but temperatures are expected to slowly warm up through the day. High pressure builds late Monday afternoon/night and persists through the majority of the upcoming week.
The highest VSBY probability for LIFR/IFR remains with KVIS and KMCE being non-urban located airports between 11Z-19Z with probabilities exceeding 60 percent.
This lines up well with many of the high res models. Precipitation will gradually increase first over the northwest part ofthe forecast area, then spreading eastward during the mid to late afternoon and evening hours and continue through tonight as another upper trough moves into the area, This will be the last gasp as we'll dry out later Monday through most, if not all of the upcoming week. Freezing levels generally in the 5000-6000 foot range this morning rise to near 6500 feet this afternoon. A warm front will bring more widespread light to moderate precipitation late this afternoon/evening with a disturbance crossing the area tonight into Monday morning. With plenty of low-level moisture, we expect the lower conditions to continue in most areas through at least 12z Monday.
Monday: High pressure building into the eastern Plains will bring dry but quite cold temperatures, along with diminishing winds. Highs will be in the lower to mid 20s, but probably at least several degrees colder in our southern counties with expected snow cover.
Despite the high moving a little quicker to the east, the gradient between it and a potent low across the Mississippi Valley is maintaining moderate to fresh breezes across the area. Temperatures this afternoon have risen into the lower to mid 70s with dew points thankfully holding in the upper 50s to lower 60s.
Temperatures will struggle to get out of the negatives today, but areas near the SD border should see the lower single digits. Temperatures will warm into the teens and 20s, close to 30 degrees for highs mid-week with the arrival of some short-lived ridging.
19Z water vapor imagery showed the upper closed low over eastern KS continuing to progress east. The main deformation band was seen over the forecast area as arctic high pressure continued to build south through the Great Plains. 12Z model guidance has much of the forcing with the upper low passing east of the forecast around 00Z and this lines up with the current satellite imagery.
A low pressure system moving from the Ohio Valley to the Mid- Atlantic coast will bring a period of light snow to the Poconos on Monday with only minimal accumulations. Otherwise, attention then turns to an area of low pressure that will be moving from the Midwest to the Mid-Atlantic states. Most of our forecast region will be left out as spectators to this event as a northern stream trough drops down through New England and New York as a kicker system without phasing. With the low that is bringing snow to the Mid Atlantic off of the coast, strengthening cold air advection through the short term will bring back lake effect snow. Though with a retrograding upper level low in the Canadian Maritimes, there will be some Atlantic moisture wrapping around across Lake Ontario that may enhance the lake effect snow.
ARS A low pressure system will move through the Mid-South today and bring windy conditions, showers, thunderstorms, and wintry precipitation to the region.
Light rain and snow showers will persist this morning northeast of the Baker City-Boise-Twin Falls line as a weak trough moves through the region. A brief lull in precipitation is expected later this afternoon before a stronger low-pressure system moves in this evening.
- Below normal temperatures will continue through mid-week, warming back towards normal by the end of the week Issued 1239 PM CST Sun Jan 5 2025 Tonight through Monday: As low pressure currently over AR moves across the srn Ohio River Valley tnt, nely boundary layer flow will bring lake effect snow to far ern WI especially from MKE to ENW.
1104 AM CST Sun Jan 5 2025 Updated at 1104 AM CST Sun Jan 5 2025 - Strong cold front arrives today with strong northerly winds and much colder temperatures. (Today and tonight) An intense mid-latitude cyclone will track eastward across the Southern Plains this morning. Water vapor imagery shows the parent mid/upper-level trough entering the Oklahoma and Texas panhandles. Falling temperatures with gusty northwest winds will occur behind the cold front. With a warm nose aloft, a transition from rain to freezing rain/sleet to snow is expected. A trace to 2" of snowfall is expected across the northern two rows of counties with the highest amounts across far northwest Oklahoma (Harper and Woodward counties).
1130 AM CST Sun Jan 5 2025 Updated at 1126 AM CST Sun Jan 5 2025 - Much cooler today with gusty north-northwesterly winds.
1119 AM CST Sun Jan 5 2025 - A strong cold front arrives today, bringing much cooler conditions across the area.