Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
(Through Monday) Upper low over the northern Gulf will translate west as the remnants of Chantal moves in to the northeast US Monday. This will allow the subtropical ridge to build across the southeast US, and surface winds to turn southwesterly.
Most models suggest that the highest storm potential will be either north or west of the forecast area, but there is at least some potential moving into the northwest after midnight tonight.
- Cooler, more seasonable, temperatures return to the Upper Peninsula for the work week. However, showers have moved out, and skies should continue clearing from west to east the rest of today as a ridge builds in from high pressure centered over the Canadian Prairies. Temperatures are coming in much cooler than in previous days, currently hovering in the upper 60s to lower 70s inland of Lake Superior. Expect temperatures today to peak in the lower/mid 60s near Superior, and the lower to mid 70s elsewhere. Stay dry when the waves are high! Winds turn calmer this evening, with a much cooler night ahead as temperatures fall into the mid and upper 40s across much of the UP, and into the lower 50s along the shorelines of the Great Lakes.
As this upper-level ridge continues to slowly propagate eastward across the Mid South to Mid MS Valley, hi-res guidance is still showing an upper-level low shifting westward across the northern Gulf. To the west of this low, moist boundary layer advection is expected to continue across our CWA this afternoon. Expect afternoon highs to peak in the low/mid 90s areawide. Expect overnight lows to dip into the low 70s across our forecast area.
Weak high pressure will then rebuild across the area and prevail through the upcoming week.
With the high PW and slow cell motion, locally heavy rain will be possible.
- Storms may increase in coverage from the north during the middle of the week as a trough swings southward over the Ozarks.
This was occurring around the northern periphery up an upper ridge over NM and as the mean westerlies remains well north of the forecast area. Surface obs showed weak high pressure over much of the central plains.
- Cooler temperatures much of this week with highs in the mid to upper 80s.
- Warmer temperatures by the latter part of the week. As far as temperatures go, the humid conditions will keep overnight lows mainly in the low to mid 70s, and highs tomorrow are expected to range from the mid 80s to lower 90s.
Another round of storms coming off the high plains is expected to approach northwest Oklahoma overnight toward dawn, though by this time it should be on a weakening trend.
Otherwise, cooler and less humid conditions expected.
This and weak upper ridging was otherwise providing fair conditions across much of the southeast. Low temps by daybreak Monday should range in the lower 70s. The start of a new work week promises more the same, hot and humid with highs rising into the low/mid 90s, and heat index values from the mid 90s to 104 degrees. A bit more moisture; higher dewpoints into the lower 70s, with very warm to hot conditions will produce surface CAPE values from 1000-2000 J/kg in the late morning and early afternoon.
226 AM EDT Mon Jul 7 2025 The pattern aloft this morning features a low over the central Gulf and high pressure to the east of Florida. At the surface, a southwest flow continues with the Atlantic ridge axis stretching back over the state.
Updated at 215 AM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025 - Hot and humid conditions will continue for the foreseeable future, with afternoon heat indices generally between upper 90s and the low 100s. - An upper level trough will bring increased coverage of showers and thunderstorms to the Midsouth through much of this week. As a 596dam ridge remains centered over the four corners region, over the Mid-South, a weak upper-level trough will begin to traverse the Middle Mississippi Valley today, increasing shower and thunderstorm coverage this afternoon. Tomorrow, shower and thunderstorm chances will be even more heightened (50-70%) as a the aforementioned trough becomes more positively oriented as the ridge over the four corners broadens.
(Today) A 5h/8h trough axis and associated cold front from the eastern Corn Belt into the Ozarks and Red River Valley will slowly slide east into the lower OH and mid MS Valley today. The trough and front will produce fairly widespread showers and thunderstorm today well to our northwest. Afternoon highs will reach 90-95 in valley areas (upper 80s atop the higher plateau areas).
1028 PM PDT Sun Jul 6 2025 * Temperatures will continue to warm through the first half of the week as high pressure builds into the region. Ridging will continue to push into the area from the southeast, maintaining our warming trend through mid-week.
(Today through Sunday) Fairly weak flow aloft with a ridge anchored across the western Atlantic will lead to fairly routine and diurnally-driven weather throughout the whole forecast period.
Discussion: Chantal will pull away to the northeast today push offshore along the New England coastline, while weak troughing settles in across the eastern United States and upper ridging shifts to the desert southwest.
344 AM EDT Mon Jul 7 2025 - Cooler, more seasonable, temperatures return to the Upper Peninsula for the work week.
Some decrease in high temperatures is possible later in the week as weak upper troughing moves in from the west and rain chances increase ever so slightly. Subsidence is expected as mid level ridging builds back in and heights rise. Some isolated convection is likely this afternoon during peak heating given how moisture rich the low- levels are. Overnight, expect any remaining convection to diminish quickly, with lows in the low to mid 70s.
pdf The axis of deep moisture (PWAT > 2 inches) that has persisted across our north-central FL zones the past several days will begin to lift northward today toward SE GA as the 1000-500 mb mean layer ridge axis pivots north across south FL. Farther south across north-central FL, rain chances will tapper off late afternoon into the early evening, which is a change from recent days, as drier air lifts northward with the ridge axis building across south FL. Hot temperatures in the mid 90s today across SE GA to the lower 90s across NE FL and toward the coast, near to slightly above normal with peak heat index values 100-105 deg.
123 AM EDT Mon Jul 7 2025 A weak cold front will approach the region this morning and move across the area this evening.
It is summer across the area so with the temperatures in the low to mid 90s there certainly a possible isolated shower or storm. By Monday the trough will be in place across central Alabama, more in line with the typical inverted trough position over the region. Highs will be in the low to mid 90s with lows in the low to middle 70s.
A weak low pressure system is centered over southern Ontario, with a trailing cold front cutting through Southeast Lower MI, central IL, and west into KS. The humidity has returned, with sfc dewpoints now in the low 70s across the forecast area. Today, the weak cold front to the northwest will slowly sink into southern portions of IL/IN.
812 AM EDT Mon Jul 7 2025 The pattern aloft this morning features a low over the central Gulf and high pressure to the east of Florida. At the surface, a southwest flow continues with the Atlantic ridge axis stretching back over the state.
After the cold front passes, lingering synoptic forcing and diurnal heating will lead to showers and storms Tuesday afternoon.
The highest chances will be across southern MO, generally tied to the area of greatest moisture convergence to the south of a frontal boundary. Additionally, localized heavy rainfall remains in play given the high PWATs (1.
- Warmer temperatures by the latter part of the week. The high end PW values environment will mean rainfall rates of 2 to 3 inches per hour with any slow moving thunderstorms, before 12Z.
524 AM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025 (Today) A 5h/8h trough axis and associated cold front from the eastern Corn Belt into the Ozarks and Red River Valley will slowly slide east into the lower OH and mid MS Valley today. The trough and front will produce fairly widespread showers and thunderstorm today well to our northwest. Afternoon highs will reach 90-95 in valley areas (upper 80s atop the higher plateau areas).
* Temperatures will continue to increase each day through mid-week as high pressure builds over the region.
Some decrease in high temperatures is possible later in the week as weak upper troughing moves in from the west and rain chances increase ever so slightly. Subsidence is expected as mid level ridging builds back in and heights rise. Some isolated convection is likely this afternoon during peak heating given how moisture rich the low- levels are. Overnight, expect any remaining convection to diminish quickly, with lows in the low to mid 70s. Upper ridge should remain across the area through Tuesday, allowing for very hot and summerlike conditions. Plenty of moisture should be spread over the area, but the upper ridge should aid in keeping afternoon rainfall coverage confined to isolated to scattered, which is supported by the hrrr and convective guidance.
614 AM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025 (Tonight through Tuesday night) A mid-level high pressure is expected to persist over the Desert Southwest throughout the short term/Tuesday night, while a mid-level low pressure regresses across the Gulf, nearing the Lower Texas coast by Tuesday morning as an inverted trough, leading to chances of convection along daytime seabreeze boundaries. As the trough nears the Gulf coast on Tuesday, PoP's increase to a low to medium (20-30%) chance, spreading inland throughout the morning and afternoon hours, likely with greater geographical coverage in convection than Monday. The mid-level trough moves inland overnight Tuesday. Slightly below average temperatures continue Monday and Tuesday afternoons with highs in the low to mid 90s, mid 80's along the coast and overnight temperatures falling to the 70s inland to around 80 degrees near the coast.
949 AM EDT Mon Jul 7 2025 A weak cold front will approach the region this morning and move across the area this evening. Ahead of this front, however, temperatures are already warming into the lower 80s -- en route to highs in the mid 80s to near 90 (in the far southeast CWA).
Temps have warmed into the mid-80s already, and with muggy dewpoints across the region in the lower 70s. A weak low pressure system is centered over southern Ontario, with a trailing cold front cutting through Southeast Lower MI, central IL, and west into KS. The humidity has returned, with sfc dewpoints now in the low 70s across the forecast area. Today, the weak cold front to the northwest will slowly sink into southern portions of IL/IN.
The 07/00z 500 mb chart placed the upper high just south of Cochise county. This upper high will be the dominate weather maker this week as it strengthen over the state, bringing hotter daytime temperatures to the area and keeping a low-grade monsoon pattern in place.
We really hit the ground running on the overnight shift last night when a cluster of showers and thunderstorms pushed across portions of the Lower Keys, very temporarily bringing temperatures down! The ASOS at the Key West International Airport was reporting air temperatures in the mid 80s with heat indices in the upper 90s just before 9 PM EDT last night. The temperature didn't stay down, and very shortly after the activity cleared up, we settled into the lower 80s for the rest of the night. It is worth noting that the lower values will likely prevail for today since the airmass advecting into the area has similar values. With low to mid level ridging remaining the dominant pattern over the next few days, the first half of this new work week will see a similar set up each day.
622 AM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025 Updated at 546 AM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025 - Hot and humid conditions will continue for the foreseeable future, with afternoon heat indices generally between upper 90s and the low 100s. - An upper level trough will bring increased coverage of showers and thunderstorms to the Midsouth through much of this week.
613 AM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025 -An upper low aloft will support increased rain chances through Tuesday before diminishing. -This feature will be replaced by strong ridging out west and weak ridging to our east, with a return to more typical diurnally driven convection expected.
Building high pressure will keep dry and increasingly hot conditions over Utah and southwest Wyoming through midweek.
711 AM EDT Mon Jul 7 2025 - Cooler, more seasonable, temperatures return to the Upper Peninsula for the work week. Look for high temperatures to peak in the 70s area wide with cooler conditions in the upper 60s along the Lake Superior shorelines. Confidence is lower on how the second round progresses along a cold front / lingering outflow boundaries, and CAMs struggle even more with where redevelopment will occur across the central third.
612 AM EDT Mon Jul 7 2025 A weak cold front will approach the region this morning and move across the area this evening.
By the middle to latter part of the week, upper ridging will attempt to build in across the southeast US. Highs each day will generally top out in the low to mid 90s. Lows will range from the low 70s inland to the mid to upper 70s along the coast.
An upper level trough that has been over the central Gulf of America will move toward the Texas coast on Tuesday. As the trough approaches, chances of showers and thunderstorms develop from the Coastal Plains to the I-35 corridor Tuesday afternoon.
324 AM PDT Mon Jul 7 2025 Updated at 200 AM PDT Mon Jul 7 2025 * Warming Trend underway as high pressure builds across Nevada.
513 AM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025 - MCS potential late tonight into early Tuesday morning - Dry and warmer midweek - Active weather pattern returns for the end of the workweek into the weekend 07z upper air and surface analysis shows a weakening MCS ranging from near Johnson to west of Dodge City to Dighton. Another challenge will be that models vary a bit in the position and strength of the high in the desert southwest which will influence the location of stronger 200-300 mb winds. That said with ample low level moisture and modest instability I can't rule out an isolated storm in southwest Kansas in the afternoon however with the lower confidence of storms happening I kept POPs 15-20%.
High temperatures will be closer to seasonal normals today, in the lower 80s in most spots, with lower dew points in the upper 50s to mid 60s.
653 AM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025 (Today through Tuesday) The process of returning to more climatological diurnal POPs should commence today, as shallow troughiness becomes reestablished in the eastern half of the CONUS. While air temperatures will climb into the lower to mid 90s, dewpoints should stay at a manageable level to keet heat indices below critical thresholds.
A weak area of high pressure is centered over the Great Lakes this afternoon with ridging extending into portions of central Illinois.
There is a small cumulus field north of the Pine Ridge in Sioux and Niobrara Counties, which could be a potential area of development for storms later this afternoon. Upper-level ridging will stregthen on Tuesday, allowing conditions to warm up and dry out. Precipitation concerns will be relatively low thanks to subsidence under the ridge and dry surface conditions.
Updated at 150 PM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025 - Hot and humid conditions will continue through the next seven days, with afternoon heat indices in the upper 90s and the low 100s.
Surface ridging extending west from the North Atlantic is to blame for this wind shift thus leading our sensible weather into a more normal pattern for this time of year. With low to mid level ridging remaining the dominant pattern over the next few days, the first half of this new work week will see a similar set up each day.
1237 PM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025 (Rest of Today and Tonight) A typical sultry, summer day is upon us, with latest obs indicating temperatures generally in the mid 80s to 90 degrees and dew point temperatures mainly in the low 70s. A pressure trough and associated vort maxima moving eastward (mainly to our north) may further instigate shower/storm activity later today.
An upper level are of low pressure has made it to the central California coast where it is expected to remain mostly stationary through late Tuesday. Meanwhile, an area of high pressure continues to strengthen over the Four Corners region.
1220 PM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025 Updated at 1208 PM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025 - Hot and humid conditions will continue for the foreseeable future, with afternoon heat indices generally between upper 90s and the low 100s. - An upper level trough will bring increased coverage of showers and thunderstorms to the Midsouth through much of this week.
- These better rain chances will continue to build over much of our Four-State area through midweek as the upper trough to our north drops a little farther southward. Air temps are ranging in the low to mid 90s with some drier dew points already mixing in at the noon hour. The weakness pattern aloft will linger over the MS River Valley as the main upper ridging continues over the desert SW U. The remnants of post tropical cyclone Chantal will continue to climb the Bermuda ridge into the mid Atlantic states with the ridge building back inland over the SE U. We are dealing with our longest days and shortest nights now with soil temps continuing to warm into the low to mid 80s during the overnights.
At the surface overhead, RAP analysis paints high pressure, which is helping to support mostly clear skies above Upper Michigan. Cooler temperatures than what has been realized the past few days have also been observed thanks to light northerly surface flow and an 850mb airmass of 10-13C, per SPC mesoanalysis. These cooler and dry conditions should persist for the remainder of today, although most locations should warm into the 70s this afternoon. Behind this initial wave Tuesday afternoon/evening, dinurally driven destabilization upwards of 1000- 1500 j/kg and deep layer shear near 40 kts ahead of a weak surface front/trough, should be enough for afternoon showers and thunderstorms to develop west and central. Any precip should end in the evening as the front/trough press through the region and forcing dives southeast of the forecast area.
Highs this afternoon will again climb into the mid 90s, with dew points only mixing into the lower 70s.
A weak upper low centered just off the Louisiana coast breaks down to a weak upper trof before moving into eastern Texas Tuesday night.
(This evening through Tuesday night) We are currently sitting between the noses of two high pressure systems, one centered over the desert southwest and the other being the Bermuda high intruding over the far northeast Gulf. The gap in between is a relative low pressure area at the base of a trough over the midwest. Tomorrow will see the center of the low pressure moving into the nortwest Gulf decreasing rain chances slightly, although still in the 50% range west of I-55 and 30-40% east of of I-55. High temperatures will be in the 90s today and tomorrow with humidities that the push the feels-like temps up to the low 100s. Overnight low temps will be in the low to mid 70s.
Expect overnight lows to dip into the low 70s across our forecast area. Afternoon highs will peak into the low to mid 90s areawide.
Weak upper level trough slides east overnight and into Tuesday afternoon and this will bring a more westerly component to the winds.
- Warmer temperatures by the latter part of the week.
Ridging continues to sit to our south giving us our southwesterly flow.
A cold front is working its way across central Indiana, bringing cooler temperatures across the area and showers and thunderstorms over the south. Temperatures should increase into the low to mid 80s later today before sunset arrives. The front itself and associated showers are expected to exit later today as well, likely by early evening, while weak high pressure takes it's place. This will bring in a slightly drier airmass and in addition to the suppression in place with the high, expect quiet weather tonight through at least midday Tuesday.
1251 PM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025 - MCS potential late tonight into early Tuesday morning - Dry and warmer midweek - Active weather pattern returns for the end of the workweek into the weekend 07z upper air and surface analysis shows a weakening MCS ranging from near Johnson to west of Dodge City to Dighton. Another challenge will be that models vary a bit in the position and strength of the high in the desert southwest which will influence the location of stronger 200-300 mb winds. That said with ample low level moisture and modest instability I can't rule out an isolated storm in southwest Kansas in the afternoon however with the lower confidence of storms happening I kept POPs 15-20%.
Starting tomorrow, showers and storms will be more scattered as a trough in the Midwest slowly moves closer.
(Rest of Today and Tonight) A typical sultry, summer day is upon us, with latest obs indicating temperatures generally in the mid 80s to 90 degrees and dew point temperatures mainly in the low 70s. A pressure trough and associated vort maxima moving eastward (mainly to our north) may further instigate shower/storm activity later today.
Our region is beginning to feel the influence of a mid/upper low that is currently in the Gulf, centered south of Louisiana.
(This evening through Tuesday) A trough will be in place across central Alabama, more in line with the typical inverted trough over the region. Highs will be in the low to mid 90s with lows in the low to middle 70s. On Tuesday the center of the high pressure will be over the western Carolinas giving us more of an easterly/southeasterly flow. Between the trough and Any organized activity to our north should remain north of the area.
Overall severe threat still looks to be on the low end during this period, but plenty of instability, and a slight uptick in shear could warrant an isolated strong to severe storm.
Surface ridging extending west from the North Atlantic is to blame for this wind shift thus leading our sensible weather into a more normal pattern for this time of year. From synopsis, ridging draped across the area will maintain light to gentle easterly breezes through the next few days.
And has been the case, there is some potential for convection developing this afternoon over the High Plains to make a run for northwest Oklahoma.
115 PM EDT Mon Jul 7 2025 A cold front will move across the area this evening, with showers and thunderstorms expected. The greater plume of moisture is now advecting into the area, ahead of the cold front. By Tuesday morning, the cold front is forecast to be most of the way through the ILN forecast area, but it is expected to weaken and mostly wash out by the time peak heating is underway.
- As temperatures warm back to the lower 90s, tropical humidity will make for oppressive peak heat indices of 100 to 105 degrees most afternoons. Continued southwesterly flow will keep this feature pinned near the coast through the remainder of the afternoon and is expected to be the focus for the highest coverage of convection today.
729 PM EDT Mon Jul 7 2025 A cold front will move across the area this evening, with showers and thunderstorms expected. The greater plume of moisture is now advecting into the area, ahead of the cold front. By Tuesday morning, the cold front is forecast to be most of the way through the ILN forecast area, but it is expected to weaken and mostly wash out by the time peak heating is underway.
1005 PM EDT Mon Jul 7 2025 * Cold front stalls overhead tonight and lies there for a couple of days.
With the ridge located over the southern Gulf and Caribbean, the southwesterly flow regime will push the remaining and dissipating, scattered, inland storms to the east coast. This flow will become more neutral as the ridge meanders northward, resulting in scattered to numerous showers more centrally concentrated and stagnant within the state. Ridging continues to sit to our south giving us our southwesterly flow.