Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Better chances for showers and thunderstorms look to potentially return by the middle of this week, along with cooler temperatures. Dry northwesterly flow sets in across much of the area as the high then begins to build over the Great Basin, keeping mainly dry conditions and warming temperatures in store.
435 AM EDT Sun Aug 10 2025 * A ridge of high pressure aloft will amplify as it moves across the Northeast U.
which looks more possible today than in previous days due to further weakening ridging aloft. The trend of weakening ridging aloft will continue into the work week as the upper ridge that was in place to the SW of AR late last week will move further west and amplify over the WRN CONUS. A larger scale trough will setup over the central US. with the Mid-South and lower MS River Valley regions on the SRN periphery of this trough. heights aloft will begin increasing once again as an upper ridge to the SE begins to drift closer to the region. The lowering temps over time will primarily be due to the increased coverage of afternoon convection. expect highs to warm slowly back just above normal as the potential for convection decreases with the influence of upper ridging increasing.
1228 AM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025 - Less muggy and a little cooler for the next few days. Summary: A cold front will bring less muggy conditions to the Northland for the next several days.
105 AM EDT Sun Aug 10 2025 - Hot and humid through Monday with highs in the upper 80s to near 90 and heat indices in the low to mid 90s.
Early this morning, South Texas will be influenced under the eastern periphery of a weakening mid-level ridge positioned over the Desert Southwest, keeping most locations dry. Later this morning into the afternoon, a weak inverted trough or mid-level low drifting in from the Gulf will draw in slightly deeper moisture (~2. Moisture and weak disturbances will linger into midweek, while the region sites between two high pressure systems: one to the west and another over Florida edging to the eastern Gulf.
Most of the forecast area will remain dry, and diurnal convection should be isolated to scattered, with the highest rain chances in our southeastern counties. With the arrival of the inverted trough, a more significant surge in moisture is expected on Monday as 925 to 700 mb flow shifts from easterly to southeasterly.
Afternoon highs peak in the low 90s with heat indices peaking around 105F, below any heat headline criteria.
714 AM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025 - Less muggy and a little cooler for the next few days. The cold front slowly sliding through the area yesterday and overnight has stalled over northwest Wisconsin, and may cause some showers and storms there late this morning through the afternoon hours. High temperatures today over northern Minnesota will on the be in the mid 70s to around 80, instead of the warmer temps we have had the last few days. The cooler airmass moving in will bring overnight low temps down to near or below 60 for the first time in several days. The cold front finally moves east of the forecast area by Monday.
611 AM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025 - An easterly wave/inverted trough feature will continue to move west across the northern Gulf into Texas through mid-week helping to increase rain chances over the area, especially near the seabreeze boundary.
553 AM EDT Sun Aug 10 2025 - Hot and humid through Monday with highs in the upper 80s to near 90 and heat indices in the low to mid 90s.
Temperatures across the region are generally in the low 60s. Upper trough lifts to the northeast this morning with northeast flow developing this evening.
A surface stationary front will linger near the Iowa-Nebraska line through the evening hours, meanwhile the more effective H8 front will extend from a leeside low that will develop as a disturbance rounds the base of a H5 trough anchored to H5 low moving along the U.
Key Message(s): - Scattered, light showers early this morning - Showers likely through much of the day with isolated t-storms An inverted trough just southeast of the South Carolina coast and increasing moisture will allow showers to continue across the area early this morning. Overnight, some showers will likely continue with lows in the lower 70s. Ridging in the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere is forecast to gradually build westward from the Atlantic through late week. GUidance does paint the center of the ridge to our south for much of the week, which should foster a return to near normal afternoon temps while also seeing near to slightly above normal chances for afternoon showers & storms.
621 AM EDT Sun Aug 10 2025 High pressure will bring hot and dry conditions until mid week.
557 AM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025 (Today) High pressure centered over the Mid-Atlantic continues to be the main driver of the local weather pattern.
632 AM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025 - A few scattered showers with an occasional stroke of lightning will move through areas south of the Highway-18 corridor in northwestern IA this morning. - Near to above normal temperatures will continue into the new week with daily highs in the low to upper 80s and low 90s expected.
Another quiet day over SE MI as high pressure remains locked over the region.
Through the start of the work week, the Desert Southwest will be sandwiched between two ridges - one over the northeastern Pacific Ocean and one over New Mexico.
634 AM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025 - Increased chances for showers/storms early this week with the highest chances still near and south of I-10.
Issued by National Weather Service Raleigh NC 733 AM EDT Sun Aug 10 2025 High pressure remains over the region promoting fair weather. High pressure remains over the forecast area and will promote mainly dry conditions. Temperatures are still running about 5 degrees cooler than normal. Highs today are expected to range from the 70s in the mountains to the lower 80s in the Piedmont, and lows tonight from the 50s to lower 60s.
644 AM EDT Sun Aug 10 2025 High pressure off the coast will bring increasing heat and humidity through mid week but it will not be as oppressive as it was earlier in the summer.
For today: With tail end of trof moving through the Rockies, the steering flow of scattered thunderstorms today will be out of the N/NW. Monday: Upper high centered near Reno, the mid-level flow will be out of the N keeping best chances of afternoon/evening convection mainly east and south of Tucson. Min RHs will generally be around 14-22 percent in the lower elevations and 20-30 percent in the mountains.
726 AM EDT Sun Aug 10 2025 * A ridge of high pressure aloft will amplify as it moves across the Northeast U.
626 AM EDT Sun Aug 10 2025 High pressure will keep quiescent conditions across the region with above normal temperatures. A weak cold front will move through midweek bringing some showers and thunderstorms. High pressure at the surface and aloft will persist today.
The current synoptic pattern features a broad mid-level trough positioned over the central U.
204 PM EDT Sun Aug 10 2025 High pressure will continue to dominate the region through the first part of the week, bringing mostly dry conditions and above normal temperatures. A weak cold front will move through midweek bringing some showers and thunderstorms. High pressure centered over the Mid Atlantic will keep light winds and with fairly high based diurnal CU with an isolated shower possible especially west of I-75. Very small progression of the mid level trough and associated frontal boundary in the central plains, as the eastern CONUS ridge slow to drift eastward. H5 troughing moves through the Great Lakes heading into the mid- week.
Severe weather is not expected and CAPE values will limited by cooler temps and an unimpressive set of dynamics, but a few thunderstorms could have some strong gusty winds, especially if the cloud deck starts to break down in the afternoon. Temperatures will be in the low to mid 80s again today, but will slowly edge up tomorrow to the mid to upper 80s.
(Rest of today and Tonight) A trough axis is stretched across the FL peninsula, associated with a persistent stationary boundary over N FL. Weak ridging in the broad synoptic pattern has kept this boundary stuck where it is for some time now, allowing for southerly flow to persist at the surface and deep tropical moisture to advect northward. With weak instability and lapse driven both by the high level of saturation and cloud cover - the primary weather impact today will once again be heavy rainfall.
124 PM EDT Sun Aug 10 2025 High pressure off the coast will bring increasing heat and humidity through mid week, but it will not be as oppressive as it was earlier in the summer.
248 PM EDT Sun Aug 10 2025 High pressure will bring hot and dry conditions until mid week.
- A weak frontal system brings cooler, near normal temperatures with afternoon and evening thunderstorms chances (10-50%) through the middle of the week. (This afternoon through Monday night) Water vapor imagery shows an upper high across the U. An upper- level trough is also evident over the northern/central Plains region. Today will be the last day of above normal temperatures (highs in the upper 90s to low triple digits) as the aforementioned trough brings a weak cold front into northwestern portions of our forecast area (southeast New Mexico and the northwestern Permian Basin) this afternoon.
(Tonight through Monday night) An inverted trough in the mid-levels is making its way across the Coastal Plains and will remain over the region into the early part of the week. Monday the inverted trough will push a little farther inland, though another trough over the central US will push southward and keep the southern trough axis east of the I-35 corridor.
300 PM EDT Sun Aug 10 2025 Widespread showers across the region into Monday as coastal trough and warm front lifts through.
High pressure will then bring a warming trend heading into midweek.
Additional thunderstorms are expected to develop this evening over central Missouri along the eastern edge of the low level jet. Highs on Monday will range from the low to mid 80s over northeast Missouri and west central Illinois to around 90 in around from I-70 southward. Britt There has not been much change in the thinking in the forecast for this week as the LREF is showing the upper trough lifting into the Great Lakes by midweek with the pattern becoming more amplified toward the weekend as a upper high builds over the southern CONUS.
CAMs suggest the primary convective area over the deep Gulf will persist through the afternoon before gradually shifting eastward towards the Lower Keys late today.
As the day progresses, we expect to see a light increase in PW and a bit of upper level low pressure weakness build into the area. Winds in the lower levels are generally easterly with predominantly southerly winds in the mid/upper levels. In either case, the high temps this afternoon will run around 90-93 range, on the lower end if you have clouds and rain and upper side with more sun. Temps will remain in the low 90s.
A 500 mb jet on Monday will allow for a trough to dig down into the Dakota's. This trough however will also spark off showers and thunderstorms, some of which could be strong to severe. Moisture return ahead of an approaching trough will cause buoyancy to build across the Northern Plains.
The upper level pattern remains largely unchanged over the next few days, with two areas of high pressure remaining centered over the Desert Southwest and Southeastern US, respectively.
(Rest of Today and Tonight) Under mostly clear skies temperatures have heated into the high 70s to low 80s as of about 9:30 AM. High pressure over the eastern CONUS both at the surface and aloft will aid in keeping a large majority of the area dry today. Without any competing factors, afternoon highs will rise into the low 90s for areas west of I-65. East of I-65, temps will be a few degrees cooler due to both the terrain and expected slightly higher cloud coverage. The benign conditions will continue overnight with temps dropping into the low 70s.
A pop up shower or storm can't be completely ruled out across the higher terrain during peak heating today, but overall, the area should remain relatively dry, with valley fog forming again towards morning in the deeper/favored valleys. This will result in a greater chance for showers and storms as compared to previous days, although largely confined to the higher elevations, and capped at slight chance to low end chance. High temperatures on Monday will top out in the lower 90s across much of the lowlands.
1137 AM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025 (Rest of Today and Tonight) Under mostly clear skies temperatures have heated into the high 70s to low 80s as of about 9:30 AM. High pressure over the eastern CONUS both at the surface and aloft will aid in keeping a large majority of the area dry today. Without any competing factors, afternoon highs will rise into the low 90s for areas west of I-65. East of I-65, temps will be a few degrees cooler due to both the terrain and expected slightly higher cloud coverage. The benign conditions will continue overnight with temps dropping into the low 70s.
High temperatures were lowered just a bit as cloud cover is keeping us a bit cooler then forecasted. Temperatures across the region are generally in the low 60s. Upper trough lifts to the northeast this morning with northeast flow developing this evening.
Monday into Monday night, we'll still be north of the main storm track, but there are some indications that the next short wave trough could track a bit closer to the far southern CWA.
1246 PM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025 - Less muggy and a little cooler for the next few days. The cold front slowly sliding through the area yesterday and overnight has stalled over northwest Wisconsin, and may cause some showers and storms there late this morning through the afternoon hours. High temperatures today over northern Minnesota will on the be in the mid 70s to around 80, instead of the warmer temps we have had the last few days. The cooler airmass moving in will bring overnight low temps down to near or below 60 for the first time in several days. The cold front finally moves east of the forecast area by Monday.
Very warm temperatures make a return to the region on Monday as warmer air surges eastward ahead of an approaching cold front. As the cold front moves through during the late afternoon and evening hours, HREF paintball output shows a handful/several CAMs with widely scattered shower and thunderstorm activity across the northern CWA.
136 PM EDT Sun Aug 10 2025 * A ridge of high pressure aloft will amplify as it moves across the Northeast U.
Clear conditions will develop for most of the night with lows dropping into the low 70s before a blanket of low stratus arrives early tomorrow morning to usher us into the work week.
An inverted trough in the mid-levels combined with convergence along the seabreeze has kicked off showers and thunderstorms along the Texas coast.
12Z Upper air maps/combined with water vapor satellite imagery show an upper level low/trough axis advancing slowly westward over east TX with another mid/low level trough axis aligned from the southeast US to across the eastern Gulf. At the surface, a weak trough of low pressure was aligned over the northern Gulf and intersecting plentiful amounts of environmental moisture with PWAT's 2.
Possibly into the low 90s mid-week. This will continue through tonight until a cold front and associated trough push the smoke east on Monday. Monday will be warmer, especially east ahead of the cold front. The aforementioned cold front and wave will move northwest to southeast through the state. When the cold front eventually makes it into the southeast, that added lift and shear could produce isolate severe storms after 4pm. Model soundings do have a weak inverted V in the low levels, indicating a potential for severe gusts.
113 PM EDT Sun Aug 10 2025 - Hot and humid through Monday with highs in the upper 80s to near 90 and heat indices in the low to mid 90s.
- Near to above normal temperatures will continue into the new week with daily highs in the low to upper 80s and low 90s expected.
The main weather feature has been this upper trough that is responsible for bringing down the smoke from the northwest. This upper trough will continue to move to the east but we will hang on to the northwest flow through Monday which will mean another round of smoke for the region.
CAMs suggest the primary convective area over the deep Gulf will persist through the afternoon before gradually shifting eastward towards the Lower Keys late today. As the Atlantic Ridge continues to nose westward back across the area, we will see our surface winds return more out of the east.
152 PM EDT Sun Aug 10 2025 High pressure will bring hot and dry conditions until mid week.
Once again the stubborn low level clouds are hanging around, keeping temperatures on the lower side of guidance. Most of the forecast area will remain dry, and diurnal convection should be isolated to scattered, with the highest rain chances in our southeastern counties. With the arrival of the inverted trough, a more significant surge in moisture is expected on Monday as 925 to 700 mb flow shifts from easterly to southeasterly.
The synoptic setup that is causing all of this rain is a stationary upper trough that is sitting over the Upper Midwest. Since northeast IA and southern WI are on the eastern edge of that upper trough, we are in the area of vorticity advection, the low level jet, and upper divergence with the right entrance region of the upper jet. The low level jet will be steady overhead tonight and then shift to the east Monday morning.
At the surface, the cold front currently resides essentially along Interstate 35 in Missouri before curling back to the west through eastern Kansas. And with the low level jet expected to ramp up later this evening and the stalled front and other remnant outflow boundaries still present, the 18z HRRR solution of convection developing later this evening across SE Kansas, building eastward into western Missouri (south of Kansas City) seems reasonable (although the recent performance of the CAMs, including the HRRR, has been poor at best).
Overnight lows will again be in the lower 70s across interior locations and the upper 70s along coastal locations.
- Hot and humid conditions persist for portions of the area this afternoon with highs in the lower 90s, with heat index values approaching 100 degrees. Current Conditions and Synoptic Pattern: Water vapor and upper air analysis continues to show a upper level trough across the northern Plains with the ridge losing its grip on the area. Lastly, outside of rainfall, temps have reached the lower 90s with dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s.
650 PM EDT Sun Aug 10 2025 High pressure will continue to dominate the region through the first part of the week, bringing mostly dry conditions and above normal temperatures. A weak cold front will move through midweek bringing some showers and thunderstorms. High pressure centered over the Mid Atlantic will keep light winds and with fairly high based diurnal CU with an isolated shower possible especially west of I-75. Very small progression of the mid level trough and associated frontal boundary in the central plains, as the eastern CONUS ridge slow to drift eastward. H5 troughing moves through the Great Lakes heading into the mid- week.
An upper ridge strengthens through Monday for dry weather along with a continued warming trend as highs reach a few degrees above normal.
A stubborn lower level trough aligned over the eastern Gulf contributed to further rounds of showers and thunderstorms across the Keys today and this evening. However, Atlantic ridging and its associated drier lower levels are steadily making inroads into Florida and the Keys. Persistent troughing responsible for the enhanced convective coverage across our area for the past few days is expected to finally pull further west and northwestward overnight as Atlantic ridging builds further westward into Florida.
Brusda /Issued 238 PM MDT Sun Aug 10 2025/ - Meteorological Overview: Northwesterly flow has replaced a slow moving upper level low that had lingered over the area over the past few days, which will help bring a drier and gradually warmer pattern to the area.
801 PM EDT Sun Aug 10 2025 Widespread showers across the region into Monday as coastal trough and warm front lifts through.
722 PM EDT Sun Aug 10 2025 High pressure will bring hot and dry conditions until mid week.
This will certainly enhance the low level tropical moisture and help produce more in the way of diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms.
219 AM EDT Mon Aug 11 2025 Widespread showers expected today as coastal trough and warm front lift through. Below normal temps will continue with clouds and precip, with highs generally in the low 80s. Front and trough will dissipate tonight as low level flow becomes more southerly across the area. Patchy inland fog and low stratus likely again overnight, with lows in the low 70s. High pressure will gradually break down and move offshore Tuesday through the rest of the week, and a more typical summer pattern will develop as the offshore trough is kicked out to sea. More typical, limited coverage precip chances expected from here as ridging and subsidence strengthen.
In the last couple of hours, showers have been flaring up as the leading edge of an Atlantic Ridge slides back westward across the southwestern North Atlantic. Winds have briefly collapsed due to the departure of the tropical wave and the yet to arrive ridge. As the ridge continues to nose in this morning, we will see a brief surge in winds that are expected to come down this afternoon. Additional isolated to scattered showers will be possible as the ridge noses in. An Atlantic Ridge will build westward and across the Keys starting today. The ridge will buckle briefly mid week, allowing for breezes to slacken temporarily.
The current synoptic pattern features a broad mid-level trough positioned over the central U. It's not until Tuesday that a digging, mid-level trough emerges from the Canadian Prairies and drives the sfc front into central Illinois, pushing the higher shower/storm chances east of I-55.
104 AM EDT Mon Aug 11 2025 High pressure will bring hot and dry conditions until mid week.
Our CWA will remain under the influence of a >591dam ridge while surface ridging continues to nose back to the southwest across our CWA. The ridging surface and aloft will continue to limit rain chances across most of our CWA and allow temperatures to top out a little warmer than normal. High temperatures today will top out in the lower 90s across the eastern half of the CWA while the western half tops out in the mid 90s. The area will continue to be under broad ridging through most of the week, which will gradually build, peaking by week's end. As the ridge shifts westward by the weekend, rain chances will decrease and heat will increase.
An upper trough will move east over the the NRN CONUS through the middle of the week. with AR remaining on the SRN periphery of this trough. The main upper ridging will remain across the WRN CONUS. The chances for isolated to scattered afternoon pulse convection will increase with the lowered heights aloft into the middle of the week. These chances for convection will slowly decrease by late this week into the weekend as ridging attempts to re-establish itself across portions of the region. this ridging trend is a bit uncertain with differing med- range model guidance. The lowering temps over time will primarily be due to the increased coverage of afternoon convection. expect highs to warm slowly as the potential for convection decreases with the influence of upper ridging increasing.
329 AM EDT Mon Aug 11 2025 - Hot and humid through Tuesday with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s and heat indices in the low to mid 90s.