Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
TFJ Previous Discussion: KEY MESSAGES: - Cooler temperatures over the next few days.
From synopsis, weak high pressure over the western Atlantic will maintain light to gentle mainly east to southeast breezes across the Keys coastal waters this afternoon and tonight, then light breezes will prevail Thursday through the weekend.
741 AM EDT Wed Sep 11 2024 Dry weather and above average temperatures will continue through the weekend with high pressure and ridging aloft. Dry conditions and plentiful sunshine under high pressure will allow another quick warm-up after sunrise. Afternoon highs will push into the 80s for most of the area outside the highest terrain. Overnight temperatures will fall back into the 50s, roughly five degrees warmer than Wednesday morning. KEY MESSAGES: - Above average temperatures and dry conditions continue under high pressure.
Increasing moisture and the low-level wind shear and helicity on the northeast side of will allow for possible tornadoes in bands of precipitation spreading northward. Precip chances will taper off from southwest to northeast through the day and evening Thursday as dry air wraps into the remnant circulation and Francine transitions to an extratropical cyclone.
949 AM EDT Wed Sep 11 2024 High pressure across the northeast, and a blocked pattern aloft over the central United States will persist through the rest of the week. Westerly flow will advect in warmer air, which will help temperatures climb into the 70s and low 80s, with valley locations having the best chance of exceeding 80. A ridge builds over the eastern half of the US, allowing heights to increase midweek. Temperatures trend warmer Thursday with highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s. As the remnants of Francine slowly drifts northward after landfall, it will strengthen the ridge overhead. The remnant low looks to stall and slowly drift around in the southern US leading to a rex block that keeps strong ridging and high pressure in place for the late week into the weekend.
956 AM EDT Wed Sep 11 2024 High pressure centered over West Virginia will move to New England and remain nearly stationary into the weekend. Low pressure from a tropical system will move into the mid Mississippi Valley by the weekend and weaken. High pressure centered over the the Mid-Atlantic region will remain in control of our weather pattern. Today's afternoon temperatures will rise into the low 80s over NWPA/NEOH and mid to upper 80s are expected over NWOH. Temperatures will be a degree or two warmer on Thursday in the mid 80s for NWPA/NEOH and upper 80s to near 90 for NWOH.
753 AM EDT Wed Sep 11 2024 Dry weather and above average temperatures will continue through the weekend with high pressure and ridging aloft. Dry conditions and plentiful sunshine under high pressure will allow another quick warm-up this morning. Outside the highest terrain, afternoon highs will push into the 80s for most of the area with probabilities for >85F peaking at 70-90% for southeast Ohio and the urban areas. Overnight temperatures will fall back into the 50s, roughly five degrees warmer than Wednesday morning as light east to southeast veering wind maintains moisture. KEY MESSAGES: - Above average temperatures and dry conditions continue under high pressure.
Pattern/synopsis: Return flow is underway, between high pressure off the east coast, and a cold front pressing into MN. A deep upper level closed low will be moving over the western CONUS Thursday. This in turn will help amplify an upper ridge over the eastern CONUS, with the ridge axis building over MI.
Another seasonably cool night with lows 45-60F (cooler interior valleys; warmer on the ridgetops) and radiational fog in the usual low spots. Upper level ridging building over PA should ensure fair weather with nearly cloudless skies through the end of the work week. At the surface, high pressure is progged to pass east of New England, with ridging extending westward over PA.
Aloft, a low amplitude weak mid level ridge was over the region. A developing trough was noted over the Great Basin. A more amplified trough was approaching the West Coast. Trough out west will push east and begin to amplify.
Daytime high temps in the low to mid 80s expected today. Southwest winds around 10 mph (with a few gusts 15 to 20 mph) this afternoon will result in only a weak lake breeze today, with some southeasterly winds and cooler temps off Lake Michigan limited to just a few miles from the shoreline.
First, mixing to about h825 suggests cooler temps for the CWA using the 06Z NAM. Yesterday's highs were roughly 3 degrees cooler than forecast by guidance. Given yesterday's high bias, today also looks to be forecast a little warmer than what I would expect. H5 ridging will be maintained across the eastern United States. Tropical low pressure will begin to move north in the vicinity of the lower Mississippi Valley tonight and Thursday.
Warmer than normal temperatures will persist through the work week as mostly dry weather continues. Cooler temperatures for the upcoming weekend as precipitation chances return thanks to an infusion of tropical moisture.
629 AM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024 (Wednesday through Thursday) Noticeable difference this morning when compared to just two days ago as we have replaced temperatures in the low 50's and dew points in the 40's with temperatures in the low to mid 70's and dew point temperatures in the upper 60's and low 70's.
High pressure centered over West Virginia will move to New England and remain nearly stationary into the weekend. Low pressure from a tropical system will move into the mid Mississippi Valley by the weekend and weaken. High pressure centered over the the Mid-Atlantic region will remain in control of our weather pattern. Today's afternoon temperatures will rise into the low 80s over NWPA/NEOH and mid to upper 80s are expected over NWOH. Temperatures will be a degree or two warmer on Thursday in the mid 80s for NWPA/NEOH and upper 80s to near 90 for NWOH.
In vicinity of Saginaw Bay and southward, latest forecast information keeps very dry air in the lowest 10. Highs in the lower to mid 80s. Very deep upper level ridging will build over the central and eastern Great Lakes Thursday through this upcoming weekend.
654 AM EDT Wed Sep 11 2024 High pressure sustains dry weather through Thursday, then the remnants of Hurricane Francine could potentially bring some rain late week into the weekend. High pressure retains control over the Central Appalachians and Middle Ohio Valley, allowing dry weather to continue throughout the near term forecast period. Temperatures will climb above normal today, reaching mid to upper 80s in the lowlands and upper 60s to low 80s in the mountains.
736 AM EDT Wed Sep 11 2024 High pressure will remain in control of our weather through the next several days, bringing above normal temperatures and plenty of sunshine. More of the same can be expected for Thursday, with temperatures a few degrees warmer.
1037 AM EDT Wed Sep 11 2024 High pressure will remain in control of our weather through the next several days, bringing above normal temperatures and plenty of sunshine. Otherwise, a very quiet day is in store with just a slight haze pushing across the region ahead of a weak upper level trough near the Upper Peninsula of Michigan. More of the same can be expected for Thursday, with temperatures a few degrees warmer.
1032 AM EDT Wed Sep 11 2024 Dry weather and above average temperatures will continue through the weekend with high pressure and ridging aloft. Outside the highest terrain, afternoon highs will push into the 80s for most of the area with probabilities for >85F peaking at 70-90% for southeast Ohio and the urban areas. Overnight temperatures will fall back into the 50s, roughly five degrees warmer than Wednesday morning as light east to southeast veering wind maintains moisture. KEY MESSAGES: - Above average temperatures and dry conditions continue under high pressure.
Dry and cooler conditions are expected to finish out the week, along with gusty southwest winds today and Thursday.
623 AM EDT Wed Sep 11 2024 High pressure across the northeast, and a blocked pattern aloft over the central United States will persist through the rest of the week. Westerly flow will advect in warmer air, which will help temperatures climb into the 70s and low 80s, with valley locations having the best chance of exceeding 80. A ridge builds over the eastern half of the US, allowing heights to increase midweek. Temperatures trend warmer Thursday with highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s. As the remnants of Francine slowly drifts northward after landfall, it will strengthen the ridge overhead. The remnant low looks to stall and slowly drift around in the southern US leading to a rex block that keeps strong ridging and high pressure in place for the late week into the weekend.
904 AM EDT Wed Sep 11 2024 Cool and dry weather is expected through mid week as Canadian high pressure builds in from the north.
627 AM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024 (Today through Thursday night) Dry weather persists across the Panhandles today as model agreement continues to see the upper-level trough build off the Rockies and move east over our area. Meanwhile to our far northwest, a upper-level trough does look to build in and progress eastward along the Canadian border late today into Thursday. Unfortunately, activity from the this trough is looking likely as the lasted runs continue to see the present ridge win out, which will leave us dry yet again Thursday.
The first in a series of low pressure systems has arrived, setting up a more autumnal pattern. Cooler temperatures and cloudy conditions will last throughout the forecast period with occasional showers.
1009 AM EDT Wed Sep 11 2024 High pressure will build in from the west today through Thursday.
Mostly sunny skies and warming temperatures will return Thursday as mid-level ridging shifts overhead behind Francine. -------------------------------------------------------------- Francine's influence will quickly be diminishing as we head into the weekend with the arrival of high pressure into the Southern Plains.
614 AM EDT Wed Sep 11 2024 High pressure will build in from the west today through Thursday.
Surface and upper ridging remains in place over the southern Appalachians for another day. Today Currently early this morning, Hurricane Francine is southwest of the Louisiana Coast with high pressure and fairly weak flow locally in the lower-levels.
645 AM EDT Wed Sep 11 2024 Cool and dry weather is expected through mid week as Canadian high pressure builds in from the north.
326 PM EDT Wed Sep 11 2024 Cool and dry weather is expected through mid week as Canadian high pressure builds in from the north.
359 PM EDT Wed Sep 11 2024 High pressure will maintain control of the weather in the Ohio Valley for another day of dry conditions.
(Tonight through Thursday night) Mid-level ridging builds in from the west Thursday as Hurricane Francine moves well inland over the Southern Mississippi River Valley. Clear skies tonight with dew points in the lower 70s and a light and variable wind drops overnight lows dropping to the low to mid 70s. Fair conditions continue Thursday night with temperatures a few degrees warmer courtesy of light southeast winds rising dew points. Local Coastal Flood matrix indicates a possible need of another flood statement during high tide (~3 AM) overnight/early Thursday but with the models indicating swells dropping below 6 feet minor flooding would be on the lower end of the probability scale.
130 PM EDT Wed Sep 11 2024 High pressure will build in from the west today through Thursday.
148 PM EDT Wed Sep 11 2024 Dry weather and above average temperatures continue through the weekend with high pressure. Outside the highest terrain, afternoon highs will push into the 80s for most of the area with probabilities for >85F peaking at 70-90% for southeast Ohio and the urban areas.
Midday satellite imagery depicted scattered cirrus arriving from the west, as lee troughing is expected to deepen to near 996 mb near Denver this afternoon. The atmosphere is a tad cooler today, but still expect all locales to be near 90 at 4 pm. Trough over the Pacific NW Wednesday is consistently forecast to move to Montana Thursday, which will further intensify the lee trough/lee cyclogenesis to 990-992 mb from eastern Wyoming to eastern Colorado.
347 PM EDT Wed Sep 11 2024 High pressure over New England will allow for dry weather and above average temperatures to persist through the weekend. High pressure over New England will remain stationary through the near term period. Cloud cover will gradually increase Thursday afternoon as the remnants of Francine approach the Lower Ohio Valley.
Forecast on repeat high pressure firmly in control providing more nice weather through the end of the week.
302 PM EDT Wed Sep 11 2024 High pressure will continue to build in tonight through Thursday.
The weak flow we've had for the past few days will become southerly as we find ourselves caught between the 500mb ridge over the Great Lakes and a deepening upper low over the western Dakotas that will be forced northward into Canada. The warm front associated with the western low will lift across Minnesota and western Wisconsin by early tomorrow, allowing highs to climb into the mid to upper 80s.
Warmer than average temperatures are expected to continue through the period as ridging is expected remain rather strong across the Upper Midwest.
255 PM EDT Wed Sep 11 2024 High pressure sustains dry weather through Thursday, then the remnants of Hurricane Francine could potentially bring some rain late week into the weekend. High pressure continues to influence the weather across the region with unseasonably warm/dry afternoons and patchy BR/FG in the morning. Strong ridging off the east coast will prevent its remnants from reaching far into the drought laden area of the Central Appalachians, dissolving over the western Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. Daytime temperatures will not budge over the next several days on the eastern flank of Francine, staying in the mid to upper 80s in the lowlands and the 60s/70s along the mountains.
(Tonight) A ridge of high pressure and daytime heating/mixing is currently helping to drop dew points into the 40s to lower 50s at this hour. However, the rain should saturate the lower levels more readily with time. The rain will also cool morning lows into the lower 60s.
Onshore pressure gradient is a little stronger north of the front which will produce breezy conditions along the Volusia coast which could hold max temps to the low 80s there.
- Warmer, drier and windier Thursday, with Red Flag conditions along the I-25 corridor and parts of the southeast plains and increased fire danger for the remainder of the area.
These clouds will keep this afternoon's highs generally in the 80s, while a few locations across the west will see highs in the lower 90s (given the lack of widespread clouds). -------------------------------------------------------------- Francine's influence will quickly be diminishing as we head into the weekend with the arrival of high pressure into the Southern Plains.
127 PM EDT Wed Sep 11 2024 High pressure centered over West Virginia will move to New England and remain nearly stationary into the weekend. Low pressure from a tropical system will move into the mid Mississippi Valley by the weekend and weaken. High pressure centered over the the Mid-Atlantic region will remain in control of our weather pattern. Today's afternoon temperatures will rise into the low 80s over NWPA/NEOH and mid to upper 80s are expected over NWOH. Temperatures will be a degree or two warmer on Thursday in the mid 80s for NWPA/NEOH and upper 80s to near 90 for NWOH.
Temperatures have already reached readings close to yesterday's highs as of 2 PM this afternoon, and a few places will likely reach the lower 90s tomorrow. Tonight, lows should be several degrees warmer as easterly winds have advected better moisture into the area.
An upper level trough moving into the Pacific Northwest today will bring breezy winds to the region that will continue into Thursday.
1241 PM EDT Wed Sep 11 2024 High pressure across the northeast, and a blocked pattern aloft over the central United States will persist through the rest of the week. Westerly flow will advect in warmer air, which will help temperatures climb into the 70s and low 80s, with valley locations having the best chance of exceeding 80. A ridge builds over the eastern half of the US, allowing heights to increase midweek. Temperatures trend warmer Thursday with highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s. As the remnants of Francine slowly drifts northward after landfall, it will strengthen the ridge overhead. The remnant low looks to stall and slowly drift around in the southern US leading to a rex block that keeps strong ridging and high pressure in place for the late week into the weekend.
Ridging and a wealth of dry air from the surface up to 12kft will keep the local area dry with only a few clouds passing through the afternoon mainly north of I69. Persistence forecasting with the ridge in place positioned off to the east resulting in light easterly flow tonight. Upper level ridge builds overhead while the next trough deepens over the Rockies. This ridge will move very little through the rest of the week and weekend while 500mb heights increase to 590dam or greater. The resultant airmass will keep temperatures steady with highs in the low-mid 80s and lows around 60.
231 PM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024 * Warm through tomorrow/Thursday, then cooler for a couple days with Francine remnants moving into the region.
A stalled frontal boundary and the ridge axis remain to our north for one more day.
Meanwhile, off to our northwest an upper level trough will continue spiraling through portions of the Intermountain West. A slightly warmer night in the upper 50s to mid 60s is expected tonight as light southeasterly winds continue to drawl in moisture from the Gulf of Mexico/Hurricane Francine.
The region will remain warm and dry for the next several days under the dominance of a strong ridge of high pressure. On Thursday night, increasing cloud cover related to Tropical Storm Francine will keep temperatures slightly warmer and in the low 60s.
316 PM EDT Wed Sep 11 2024 Cool and dry weather is expected through mid week as Canadian high pressure builds in from the north.
The upper pattern this afternoon features Hurricane Francine approaching the Gulf Coast of Louisiana and a longwave trough across the western CONUS.
156 PM EDT Wed Sep 11 2024 High pressure will remain in control of our weather through the next several days, bringing above normal temperatures and plenty of sunshine. More of the same can be expected for Thursday, with temperatures a few degrees warmer.
Otherwise, temperatures are climbing into the upper 70s already across most of the UP, and should be able to peak in the lower and perhaps mid 80s for today, particularly where our southerly flow is downsloping. Onshore of Lake Michigan, temperatures are staying cooler with highs only in the lower to mid 70s. Temperatures only fall back as far as the 50s across most of the area, and in the lower 60s near the lakeshores. A trough slowly meanders east-northeast over the Rockies, Hurricane Francine lifts north through the Lower Mississippi Valley, and ridging amplifies over the Great Lakes and Ontario. This also sets up WAA from southerly flow and with a warmer 850mb airmass of temps around 17-19C moving in from the west. Thus, warmer than normal temps are expected in the upper 70s to upper 80s.
1145 AM EDT Wed Sep 11 2024 High pressure sustains dry weather through Thursday, then the remnants of Hurricane Francine could potentially bring some rain late week into the weekend. Made minor changes to TDs/RH grids with much of the lowlands expected to be in the 20 percent range during the aftn. High pressure retains control over the Central Appalachians and Middle Ohio Valley, allowing dry weather to continue throughout the near term forecast period. Temperatures will climb above normal today, reaching mid to upper 80s in the lowlands and upper 60s to low 80s in the mountains.
147 PM EDT Wed Sep 11 2024 Cool and dry weather is expected through mid week as Canadian high pressure builds in from the north.
1202 PM PDT Wed Sep 11 2024 A fall-like weather pattern arrives today with cooler temperatures and chances for showers and a few thunderstorms.
500 PM EDT Wed Sep 11 2024 Dry weather and above average temperatures continue through the weekend with high pressure.
Meanwhile, a 1023 mb ridge of high pressure over New England was resulting in mostly sunny skies across the Mid- South with 11 AM temperatures in the lower to middle 80s.
105 PM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024 (Today through Thursday night) Dry weather persists across the Panhandles today as model agreement continues to see the upper-level trough build off the Rockies and move east over our area. Meanwhile to our far northwest, a upper-level trough does look to build in and progress eastward along the Canadian border late today into Thursday. Unfortunately, activity from the this trough is looking likely as the lasted runs continue to see the present ridge win out, which will leave us dry yet again Thursday.
A slow moving line of thunderstorms has formed along the leading edge of an upper low over e-central Oregon. Development has focused over northern Malheur and Baker counties in Oregon this morning but is expected to extend southward this afternoon as the low tracks east.
(Tonight through Thursday night) There is a weak upper level trough over TX this afternoon. Dry weather and warmer temperatures will continue again tomorrow. Thursday night a low amplitude upper ridge will move into West TX and the low level flow over our CWA will switch around to the southeast bringing warmer air back to the region.
As atmospheric conditions have evolved, warmer temperatures and higher dew points are being observed. Rain will continue through Thursday, lowering visibility and ceiling heights at all terminals, particularly this evening as the low makes its way into central Idaho.
133 PM EDT Wed Sep 11 2024 High pressure sustains dry weather through Thursday, then the remnants of Hurricane Francine could potentially bring some rain late week into the weekend. Made minor changes to TDs/RH grids with much of the lowlands expected to be in the 20 percent range during the aftn. High pressure retains control over the Central Appalachians and Middle Ohio Valley, allowing dry weather to continue throughout the near term forecast period. Temperatures will climb above normal today, reaching mid to upper 80s in the lowlands and upper 60s to low 80s in the mountains.
Temperature maximums today will remain in the lower 80s/upper 70s as a result. /16/ (Wednesday through Thursday) Noticeable difference this morning when compared to just two days ago as we have replaced temperatures in the low 50's and dew points in the 40's with temperatures in the low to mid 70's and dew point temperatures in the upper 60's and low 70's.
Meanwhile, at the surface, a large area of high pressure off the New England coast is continuing to supply relatively dry air to the area.
23Z sfc analysis shows the western portion of high pressure to our east holding on over much of Kentucky as the low pressure associated with Hurricane Francine is working this way from the southwest. The leading edge of the high clouds from the tropical system are just now getting into eastern Kentucky while winds remain light, generally from the east. Temperatures currently vary from the the mid to upper 60s in the valleys to around 80 on the ridges and in the more open terrain of the southwest. Expect another ridge to valley temperature difference through the night but mitigated late by the arriving high clouds. Meanwhile, at the surface, a large area of high pressure off the New England coast is continuing to supply relatively dry air to the area.
953 PM EDT Wed Sep 11 2024 High pressure will continue to build in tonight through Thursday.