Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
946 AM EDT Wed Jun 4 2025 High pressure will continue to provide warm and dry weather through this evening. Southwest flow around the high, along with increased heights due to the ridge will result in another day of warm and dry conditions. Key Message: 1) Rain chances increase later this week and into the weekend A disturbance off the Carolina Coast is looking to form into a low pressure system and travel along the coast towards the northeast.
Lower-end rain chances return to the highway 84 corridor by late afternoon and a rumble of thunder in those areas can't be totally ruled out but most places will remain dry through tonight. Moisture associated with these features combined with persistent surface ridging from the northeast and daytime heating will fuel convection mostly around the periphery of our CWA today. This activity will see a distinct diurnal trend so wl not carry the low chance for convection into the Tonight period. Otherwise, warmer than normal temperatures will continue through the period.
433 AM MDT Wed Jun 4 2025 - A bit warmer today, through still cooler than normal for early June.
Temperatures, once again, will run just a touch below normal levels with lower valleys right around 70 with mid to upper 60s expected in the higher terrain. Temperatures begin their upward trend on Thursday as troughing looks to give way to a major pattern change towards strong ridging over the region.
At the start of the forecast period, our area is compressed between ridging to our east and a weak trough with attendant cold front moving in to the area from our west. The aforementioned cold front will move through the area today. Another mid level wave appears to be lagging upstream that should give this boundary another eastward push late afternoon and evening, but in the meantime, eastward progression of this trough will be very slow.
729 AM EDT Wed Jun 4 2025 Dry and warmer weather is expected today under high pressure. Shower and thunderstorm chances return Thursday with an approaching cold front.
608 AM CDT Wed Jun 4 2025 - Much cooler weather today. (Today) The surface cold front now extends from southeast OK up into northwest Arkansas. High temperatures will be much cooler than yesterday, generally in the 70s (coolest in northeast OK).
- Much cooler temperatures today, remaining quite chilly near the lake Thursday. Through Thursday: At the surface, a slow moving northeast-southwest oriented cold front was bisecting our CWA early this morning. In the wake of this front, winds will turn north then northeasterly with much cooler air advecting into the area.
Issued by National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 638 AM CDT Wed Jun 4 2025 (Wednesday through Thursday) Along with upper-level ridging, a weak cold front is currently working its way into the northwest part of the CWA. This cold front also will not bring any relief from the heat due to its weakness, so afternoon temperatures on Wednesday will stay in the mid 80s and low 90s. This will keep minimum temperatures unseasonably warm in the low to mid 70s. However, the upper-level ridge could also help mitigate these storms and prevent them from gaining traction, which brings us back to the uncertainty.
134 PM MDT Wed Jun 4 2025 - A bit warmer today, but temperatures will still be around 8 to 12 degrees below normal for early June.
High pressure will ridge across south FL overnight. Lows in the lower 70s expected.
Afternoon highs will only be a couple of degrees warmer today, so look for more upper 60s to mid 70s as our warming trend gets a slow start. Look for Thursday to be nearly a repeat of today with a continued chance for isolated to scattered afternoon storms in the same areas and highs will be about 5 degrees warmer for everyone.
GOES Water Vapor imagery this afternoon highlights a building ridge of high pressure off the western US coastline, with the Northern Rockies remaining under the influence of northwest flow. The ridge will begin to move inland, settling across Inland Northwest this weekend, leading to a considerable warming trend.
103 PM CDT Wed Jun 4 2025 (Today through Thursday) Large high over the NE ridging into the north central gulf region is pulling northward allowing the inverted trough over the eastern gulf to move west. The easterlies are well established and this time of year we can look for disturbances in the easterlies such as tropical waves or baroclinic inverted troughs to give us rain. The short term will have the current inverted trough caught up in these easterlies giving us higher chances of rain today.
At the start of the forecast period, our area is compressed between ridging to our east and a weak trough with attendant cold front moving in to the area from our west. The aforementioned cold front will move through the area today. A slow-moving cold front is located over KSBN and slowly creeping east.
A weak cold front is moving through our CWA this afternoon. Ahead of the front warm, moist southeasterly flow continues, and behind the front winds are from the northeast with cooler, drier air. An upper level ridge will build over Texas bringing subsident flow that will suppress convection for the rest of the short term period. The low level flow will turn quickly back to southeasterly overnight. Expect a mostly sunny afternoon with warmer temperatures.
Daily afternoon/evening mountain shower and thunderstorm chances (15-25%) will continue today through the weekend over the high Sierra.
Water vapor imagery highlights a lengthy mid to upper level trough over the Gulf of America that stretches from the southern Appalachians to the Yucatan Peninsula. The TBW and JAX RAOBs sampled rising 500 mb heights at 12Z, suggesting the subtropical ridge is taking back ground from the upper low.
At the same time the ridge to our southwest is expected to start to build into the region which could slightly negate the moisture increase. With that far less impressed with the rain chances tomorrow and it could be even less coverage than today given the building ridge and rising hghts. That also will lead to a warm day and highs may be a degree or two warmer in many areas tomorrow.
116 PM CDT Wed Jun 4 2025 Updated at 1255 PM CDT Wed Jun 4 2025 - Cooler temperatures are on tap this afternoon as a cold front continues to push southward.
There is an upper low that is weakening/shearing out this afternoon as it pushes across the state.
Other than some afternoon cumulus over the higher terrain and a few high clouds, sunny conditions will prevail.
1007 AM MDT Wed Jun 4 2025 - A bit warmer today, but temperatures will still be around 10 degrees below normal for early June.
Ridging aloft will generally maintain control of the local weather through the rest of the week, with mostly quiet conditions.
Over the remainder of the region expected scattered showers and storms to continue to develop over the higher terrain and move out onto the plains during the 21-22 UTC time frame. Otherwise, it will be warmer tomorrow across the fcst area with high temps around 80F over the plains, around 70 larger valleys and 40s and 50s mtns.
1200 PM MDT Wed Jun 4 2025 - A bit warmer today, but temperatures will still be around 10 degrees below normal for early June.
1109 AM CDT Wed Jun 4 2025 (Wednesday through Thursday) Along with upper-level ridging, a weak cold front is currently working its way into the northwest part of the CWA. This cold front also will not bring any relief from the heat due to its weakness, so afternoon temperatures on Wednesday will stay in the mid 80s and low 90s. This will keep minimum temperatures unseasonably warm in the low to mid 70s. However, the upper-level ridge could also help mitigate these storms and prevent them from gaining traction, which brings us back to the uncertainty.
This pattern brings an end to the somewhat cooler and noticeably drier pattern of the last several days as rain chances, particularly during peak heating, return.
Water vapor imagery highlights a lengthy mid to upper level trough over the Gulf of America that stretches from the southern Appalachians to the Yucatan Peninsula. The TBW and JAX RAOBs sampled rising 500 mb heights at 12Z, suggesting the subtropical ridge is taking back ground from the upper low. From synopsis, an upper level low in the Gulf of America will continue to promote active weather across our area today, especially into the early afternoon. This high will move out into the Atlantic later this week, resulting in a return to gentle to moderate east to southeast breezes and less rainy and thundery conditions.
- Any receptive fuels have potential for elevated fire weather concerns later this weekend with warmer temperatures and lower humidity. WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Our region remains under the influence of a low pressure system from central Canada at least today through Thursday.
An upper level low pressure system just offshore from the western Florida Panhandle will continue to spread deeper tropical moisture, with PWATs approaching 2 inches, westward across areas mainly along and west of Interstate 65 this afternoon. The upper low will slowly lift northeastward tonight through Thursday night. The eastern half of the area will remain moist and in close enough proximity to the upper low tomorrow which will keep numerous showers and thunderstorms over these locations.
(Through Thursday) Scattered showers were noted across portions of the Florida Panhandle and southern GA this aftn, courtesy of an inverted trough in the Gulf slowly drifting north northeast. Tomorrow, continued high PWATS of 2+ inches will persist coupled with the aforementioned trough slowly exiting the region will result in another resurgence of precipitation. Overnight lows will prevail in the lower 70s followed by highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s tomorrow. Daytime temps tomorrow will be a bit warmer than today given lesser robust cloud cover.
The most recent surface analysis shows a slow moving cold frontal boundary extending from eastern OK into E TX. Outside of thunderstorm chances, hot and humid conditions will prevail with highs around 90 and dewpoints in the low 70s. Kovacik (Wednesday through Thursday) Along with upper-level ridging, a weak cold front is currently working its way into the northwest part of the CWA. This cold front also will not bring any relief from the heat due to its weakness, so afternoon temperatures on Wednesday will stay in the mid 80s and low 90s. This will keep minimum temperatures unseasonably warm in the low to mid 70s. However, the upper-level ridge could also help mitigate these storms and prevent them from gaining traction, which brings us back to the uncertainty.
Otherwise, temperatures will be warmer tomorrow, with highs climbing into the lower to mid 90s. Temperatures may be a bit cooler in the Big Country depending on morning showers/storms and lingering cloud cover in the afternoon. (Thursday night through next Wednesday) High pressure builds aloft through this weekend, which will act to rapidly increase temperatures across the region and minimize our rain chances for a few days.
Mostly dry on Thursday afternoon with isolated afternoon convection, mainly across the higher elevations. Discussion: We remain on the western periphery of a ridge across the East Coast with SW flow across the Mississippi Valley.
High temperatures will be 5-10 degrees above average with Columbia Basin reaching to the low-high 80s and mid 70s to low 80s for the remaining forecast area.
1224 PM CDT Wed Jun 4 2025 - Cooler and less humid conditions today and Thursday, with highs in the mid 70s.
That has resulted in temps a few degrees cooler than yesterday, and will likely reinforce some marine stratus and onshore flow for areas south of the SF Bay Thursday morning.
The upper level low over the northeast gulf this afternoon will begin to drift northeast away from the region tonight and Thursday.
102 PM CDT Wed Jun 4 2025 - Cooler temperatures for Wednesday, before a warming trend into the weekend. (Today and tonight) A cold front was moving through the area early this morning, resulting in thunderstorms across parts of our Heartland area, and also a few showers in the Concho Valley. Temperatures will be cooler today, with highs mainly in the 80s.
A cold front will produce scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms on Thursday, with a few stronger storms capable of small hail, gusty winds and brief heavy down pours. Surface and upper level ridges slide east of our region overnight. Latest 12z HREF shows an axis of surface based CAPE values of 1500 to 2000 J/kg with 0 to 6 km shear of 20 to 30 knots across our forecast ahead of approaching cold front. Maximum temperatures ahead of the cold front will peak in the upper 80s across Vermont, cooler in Northern New York closer to the upper 70s. Minimum temperatures Thursday night will range from the lower 50s to lower 60s.
345 PM EDT Wed Jun 4 2025 A warm and humid day is expected tomorrow with a cold front bringing isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening hours.
This trough will trigger scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms late this afternoon (after 4pm) and this evening. At the surface, a trough drifts east across eastern Colorado Thursday. To the west of the trough across the Front Range, there will still be enough moisture and instability for scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms.
Otherwise, temperatures will be warmer tomorrow, with highs climbing into the lower to mid 90s. Temperatures may be a bit cooler in the Big Country depending on morning showers/storms and lingering cloud cover in the afternoon.
351 PM MDT Wed Jun 4 2025 - A bit warmer today, but temperatures will still be around 8 to 12 degrees below normal for early June.
A cold front will produce scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms on Thursday, with a few stronger storms capable of small hail, gusty winds and brief heavy down pours. Otherwise, it'll be a quiet night across the region with increasing cloud cover toward morning as a cold front approaches the region. Surface and upper level ridges slide east of our region overnight. Latest 12z HREF shows an axis of surface based CAPE values of 1500 to 2000 J/kg with 0 to 6 km shear of 20 to 30 knots across our forecast ahead of approaching cold front. Maximum temperatures ahead of the cold front will peak in the upper 80s across Vermont, cooler in Northern New York closer to the upper 70s. Minimum temperatures Thursday night will range from the lower 50s to lower 60s.
755 PM EDT Wed Jun 4 2025 (Through Thursday) Scattered showers were noted across portions of the Florida Panhandle and southern GA this aftn, courtesy of an inverted trough in the Gulf slowly drifting north northeast. Tomorrow, continued high PWATS of 2+ inches will persist coupled with the aforementioned trough slowly exiting the region will result in another resurgence of precipitation. Overnight lows will prevail in the lower 70s followed by highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s tomorrow. Daytime temps tomorrow will be a bit warmer than today given lesser robust cloud cover.
Temperatures this afternoon are still expected to rise into the low 90s for most of the area - though areas that get those pop-up showers and storms may see a quick (but temporary) cool down into the upper 70s to low 80s. High temperatures Thursday afternoon will be a couple of degrees warmer, into the mid 90s, for areas along the I-10 corridor.
Broad troughing and strong onshore flow will bring night through morning low clouds and fog and cooler than normal temperatures through the end of the week.
704 PM EDT Wed Jun 4 2025 A warm and humid day is expected tomorrow with a cold front bringing isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening hours.
357 PM MDT Wed Jun 4 2025 - Cooler and wetter conditions expected through the end of the work week. This will be largely dependent upon both our temperatures as well as how much clearing we can get from overnight activity, but with highs expected only in the low to mid 60's we will definitely need some assistance if we're going to see anything stronger.
However, lower overall PoPs and coverage expected on Thursday as the upper low begins to move away from the area. The upper level low over the northeast gulf this afternoon will begin to drift northeast away from the region tonight and Thursday.
All signs pointed to a potential forecast bust, and we reacted by upping the rain chances to chance-levels for the Lower Keys through the late evening hours. In the end, as the convection approached Hawk Channel, SAL-induced inhibition won the battle, and activity rapidly eroded in a picturesque manner on radar imagery, leaving only traces of rainfall for portions of the Lower Keys. The forecast calls for lows generally in the lower 80s, mostly cloudy skies, and low-rain chances. High pressure off the Mid- Alantic coastline will continue to move eastward and merge with a stronger high centered near the Azores.
520 PM MDT Wed Jun 4 2025 - Cooler and wetter conditions expected through the end of the work week. This will be largely dependent upon both our temperatures as well as how much clearing we can get from overnight activity, but with highs expected only in the low to mid 60's we will definitely need some assistance if we're going to see anything stronger.
Water vapor imagery & RAP/upper air analysis this evening indicate upper low over the northeastern Gulf, with light southerly to variable low-level winds. Sfc front is stalled in the ArkLaTex, with sfc ridging in the between. This pattern brings an end to the somewhat cooler and noticeably drier pattern of the last several days as rain chances, particularly during peak heating, return.
- Warm and dry this weekend as high pressure builds in.
- Warmer temperatures arrive Friday with many locations expected to reach the triple digits this weekend.
(Today and tonight) An upper level low will begin to lift out of the region this afternoon but on its way out it will lead to another day of widespread shower and thunderstorm activity. As the upper level low pushes northeast through the day and upper level ridging begins to slowly build in from the west, most of the widespread activity should spread north and east.
High pressure will continue to persist over our area through the next couple of days with overall warm and dry conditions. A weak disturbance on Friday will increase cloud cover and bring slightly cooler temperatures to the area. A more significant warm up will arrive this weekend as upper level ridging strengthens over western Washington.
(Tonight through Friday night) Mid-level ridging will continue build and provide subsidence over the region through Friday.
Outflow from these earlier storms coupled with late afternoon peak heating may reinitiate convection back on the Southern High Plains just ahead of a warm front boundary lifting across northern Texas into Oklahoma. Large hail and damaging wind gusts are the two primary convective hazards across most of our area with an additional hazard of isolated tornados in our far western CWA near the higher plains.
Main forecast concern revolves around disposition of mean upper trough from central Canada to the southwest CONUS.
High pressure is forecast to build across the Southwest starting on Friday.
Warmer and drier conditions return Friday through the weekend. On Friday high pressure begins building in from the south and the area returns to weather more typical of early June.
This trough will trigger scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms late this afternoon (after 4pm) and this evening. At the surface, a trough drifts east across eastern Colorado Thursday. To the west of the trough across the Front Range, there will still be enough moisture and instability for scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy skies and an easterly wind will result in slightly cooler temperatures.
1140 PM MDT Wed Jun 4 2025 - Cooler and wetter conditions expected through the end of the work week. This will be largely dependent upon both our temperatures as well as how much clearing we can get from overnight activity, but with highs expected only in the low to mid 60's we will definitely need some assistance if we're going to see anything stronger.
With the ArkLaTex situated along the northern periphery of an upper-ridge, weak southwest flow will allow for skies to become mostly cloudy throughout the day. The combination of increased cloud cover and a cooler airmass north of the frontal boundary will allow for highs in the mid to upper 80s across northeast Texas, southeast Oklahoma and southwest Arkansas. The remainder of the ArkLaTex south of the front will experience highs in the low to mid 90s. Convection to increase in coverage across north-central Texas overnight as an upper-level impulse translates east along the northern periphery of the ridge.
1233 AM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025 (Tonight through Friday night) Mid-level ridging will continue build and provide subsidence over the region through Friday.
An isolated thunderstorm or two (possibly harboring some severe weather risk) cannot be ruled out along a northward advancing warm front across western Oklahoma towards sunset. Otherwise, Thursday will again be on the cooler side (as clouds/precipitation linger), with afternoon temperatures in the 70s to low-80s forecast. A subtle upper disturbance, embedded within a belt of strong mid-tropospheric flow across the Southwest, will quickly advance out across the High Plains near and just after sunset on Thursday.
A slow moving cold front approaches late in the work week, with showers and thunderstorms at times through the weekend. After a quiet weather morning a cold front draped across to our west slowly approaches bringing showers and storms to the area starting as early as this mid afternoon. Abundant moisture over the area in advance of a cold front will combine with an upper level short wave to produce showers and thunderstorms on Friday. Some large hail is also possible with a freezing level around 13K feet.
307 AM EDT Thu Jun 5 2025 A weakening cold front will slowly cross the region today, with some showers and thunderstorms. Additional showers or a thunderstorm will be possible through Friday night, this as the cold front stalls not to far from the area.
302 AM EDT Thu Jun 5 2025 Low pressure will track into the Carolinas today bringing clouds and a few rain showers to the area. Areas of light rain will move into portions of northern North Carolina and southern Virginia ahead of the low, but overall coverage of rain looks spotty at best. Rain chance remain through the afternoon across southern Virginia and North Carolina, with little to no rain along or west of the Blue Ridge.
This hints at the low end potential for isolated damaging winds (50-60 mph) in stronger cores/mergers. The active frontal zone will look to settle over the northern Ohio Valley Thursday into Friday as Mid Atlantic centered upper ridging dampens.
The surface map shows high pressure over the Dakotas, with light southerly return flow around 10 kts.
Sunrise is only a couple of hours away and with the high sun angle I'd anticipate this dense fog to burn off within a couple of hours of sunrise.
(This evening through Thursday) Skies continue to clear this afternoon with daytime heating, however convection is generally not expected during the remaining daytime hours as morning cloud cover has kept the atmosphere relatively stable behind a cold front. Low-level flow will increase out of the SE this evening, allowing for very favorable moisture advection north of a lifting warm front.
(Today through Friday) Key Messages: - Increasingly dry and warmer conditions expected Thursday-Friday. Subtropical ridging will tighten its grasp on South Central Texas Thursday, with drier and warmer conditions expected, particularly out west along the Rio Grande where temperatures will near the 100 degree mark or exceed it. Temperatures elsewhere will climb into the lower to middle 90s, and when factoring in the increased humidity from recent rains, it'll feel like 100-105 Thursday afternoon. Temperatures will only continue to increase as the subtropical ridge moves over deep south Texas on Friday.