Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
316 AM EDT Tue May 27 2025 - Wednesday is the highest chance for rain - Warmer temperatures continue - Wednesday is the highest chance for rain We're looking at a mostly cloudy day today. Latest IR imagery shows abundant high clouds streaming over Lower MI ahead of the upper low that's well depicted in water vapor imagery over the Dakotas. Other models produce less, but the general theme is that rain is likely Wednesday as the low passes by.
This event may have some staying power, with the highest chances in the evening hours across many areas as the wave axis passes through. Another trough axis rotating around the upper level low will cross the area on Wednesday and bring another chance of showers. The chance of thunder decreases on this day, with cooler temperatures and cloud cover limiting instability.
Troughing continues to build in to our west, as a low pressure begins to get its act together. That means the region remains in this SW flow aloft paradigm, keeping afternoon instability values on the high side. Given the high instability values, the SPC has maintained a Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5) for portions of the region, as these storms will be capable of producing damaging winds and large hail.
A mix of clouds and sunshine this evening as upper ridging builds into Western Washington. High pressure rebuilds over the region Tuesday and Wednesday with warming temperatures and dry conditions.
- Unsettled pattern in the early to middle parts of this coming week, with chances of strong to severe thunderstorms along with cooler temperatures. High temperatures today will be slightly cooler, reaching into the upper 70s to upper 80s generally, with the warmest temperatures nearing 90 along the I-10 corridor. These warmer temperatures and lingering low-level moisture will help increase instability across the Northern Edwards Plateau and provide ample support for strong to severe thunderstorm development. Overnight lows will cool into the low to mid 60s, with generally light and variable winds into Wednesday morning.
124 AM EDT Tue May 27 2025 High pressure over New England will maintain dry and warm weather today, with high clouds thickening from southwest to northeast. Low pressure will then move into the Great Lakes Wednesday, bringing another period of rain to the region.
There will also be some upper level divergence and positive vorticity during the day Tuesday, but dry air will be slow to erode resulting in another nice day tomorrow with highs in the low 70s. Late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning the upper level low over MN/WI gradually shifts east with a trough axis and associated positive vorticity advection swinging through.
As we move into tonight, a large ridge will build over the Pacific Northwest thorough Wednesday. This ridge will bring warming temperatures and dry weather. The ridge will move east Wednesday night as a weak trough approaches and brings some shower chances mainly to the Washington Cascades. There will be some gusty winds through this evening due to the pressure gradient between the departing trough and the building ridge, but otherwise, there should just be general diurnal breezes in the normal spots.
(Today) A broad belt of southwesterly flow aloft extends across the TN Valley this morning, within the gradient between a developing closed low across the northern Plains and a subtropical ridge centered over the southeastern Gulf/northwestern Caribbean Sea. Although the low-level jet will be on a weakening trend this afternoon, there are some indications that flow may be locally enhanced by a large MCV (originating from the same MCS) and this could lead to a minor increase in the risk for mesocyclone formation and perhaps a brief tornado or two.
123 AM PDT Tue May 27 2025 - Temperatures trending warmer with Minor and Moderate HeatRisk on Wednesday.
A ridge is forecast to build across S TX through the day Wednesday, thus decreasing rain chances through the afternoon.
1252 AM EDT Tue May 27 2025 High pressure builds in with clearing skies and cool conditions this morning, and fair weather with slightly above normal temperatures for the afternoon. Clouds increase Tuesday night into Wednesday with rain chances increasing for the mid week ahead of low pressure. Forecast is on track with high pressure building in with clear skies and light to calm winds. Temps are dropping off quicker in the southern Dacks into the lower 40s based on the NYS mesonet. High pressure remains in place resulting in subsidence. Dry conditions expected to prevail Tue night with high pressure shifting north/east of the area. Wed into Wed night, a dual-cyclone system gradually approaches from the south/west.
- Warmer temperatures return by the weekend with many locations expected to see highs in the 80s with quiet conditions. Tuesday: Base of the upper level trough sits overhead by Tuesday morning, gradually moving eastward through the afternoon. Wednesday: Upper level low fails to make much progress eastward as another vort lobe carves back down the western periphery for Wednesday.
Current analyses (2am/07z) show a sfc frontal boundary was still draped across the far southern US, while a closed upper low had formed over the northern Plains. Some additional low probability precip chances could linger Fri into the weekend, depending on how that upper low evolves, but confidence is low at this range.
1259 AM EDT Tue May 27 2025 Cool high pressure moving across the Great Lakes and New York will cause unseasonably cool weather on Tuesday for the western Carolinas and northeast Georgia with a brief wedge pattern.
The eastward progression of a broad upper level low currently found over the northern Plains this morning will characterize conditions through Wednesday. Then, on the back side of the exiting upper level low, diurnal showers are possible across eastern North Dakota this afternoon (20 to 40 percent chance) through the evening. High temperatures this afternoon are forecast from the lower 60s southwest up to the lower to mid 70s north and east. Behind the upper level low, upper level ridging is expected to gain increasing influence across the northern Plains through the remainder of the week.
Drier conditions will be seen Fri and Sat as flow aloft becomes more consistently NW behind a new cold front that will move through the state Thu night. NW flow aloft will begin moving east as an upper ridge starts to become established across the central CONUS. Temps will warm as this ridging sets up across the region.
102 AM EDT Tue May 27 2025 High pressure builds in with clearing skies and cool conditions this morning, and fair weather with slightly above normal temperatures for the afternoon. Clouds increase Tuesday night into Wednesday with rain chances increasing for the mid week ahead of low pressure. Forecast is on track with high pressure building in with clear skies and light to calm winds. Temps are dropping off quicker in the southern Dacks into the lower 40s based on the NYS mesonet. High pressure remains in place resulting in subsidence. Dry conditions expected to prevail Tue night with high pressure shifting north/east of the area. Wed into Wed night, a dual-cyclone system gradually approaches from the south/west.
252 AM EDT Tue May 27 2025 High pressure will slowly give way to a low pressure system tracking up the east coast later this week.
437 AM EDT Tue May 27 2025 A low pressure system will approach the region today bringing rain to the area. Rain will move into the region today as a low pressures system approaches the area. As the area of low pressure moves through the region residual moisture will allow for shower activity continuing into tonight.
1039 PM PDT Mon May 26 2025 - Temperatures trending warmer with Minor and Moderate HeatRisk on Wednesday.
Satellite shows a broad upper level trough across the Dakotas and Minnsota. Isentropic lift on the 295- 300K surface is most consentrated north of I-70 this morning, but weakens mid-day before re-intensifying as the upper trough oozes southward. Clouds through much of the day will keep temperatures cool in the 60s, with warmer conditions in the east where temperatures are slightly warmer and clouds will be slightly thinner. As the upper trough sags southward, the majority of the system eventually comes under the influence of the southern branch of the upper jet shoving the upper trough into the Ohio Valley on Wednesday. With the upper trough gradually drifting east, expect more breaks to develop in the persistent cloud cover leading to warming temperatures.
to an area of low pressure over eastern Texas. Showers and storms that do develop will likely form slightly inland away from the west coast and move farther inland during the afternoon/evening with the highest coverage over the interior and east coast of Florida.
Rain chances look to remain around 40-50% through much of the day Wednesday, as weak coastal troughing looks to set up.
646 AM EDT Tue May 27 2025 A low pressure system will approach the region today bringing rain to the area. Rain will move into the region today as a low pressures system approaches the area. As the area of low pressure moves through the region residual moisture will allow for shower activity continuing into tonight.
- A cool and damp (gloomy) day is expected across the region with some patchy fog, drizzle and cloudy skies helping to keep temperatures in the lower 60s across the region.
507 AM EDT Tue May 27 2025 * Cloudy today with soaking rainfall overspreading the area from southwest to northeast this evening through Wednesday * Remaining unsettled through the end of May with periods of showers and cooler than average daytime temperatures * Transition toward a summerlike pattern favors more consistent seasonal warmth into early June IR satellite shows a thickening shield of mid/high clouds overspreading CPA early this morning.
306 AM MDT Tue May 27 2025 - Warmer today than yesterday, though still cooler than seasonal normals for most locations. - Continued chances for showers and thunderstorms over the high country today. This will mean warmer temperatures for much of the area, though chances for showers and thunderstorms will still exist over the high country. Daytime highs look to be much warmer than yesterday, though still a couple of degrees shy of seasonal normals for most locations. Highs in the mid to upper 70s are likely over the Lower Arkansas River Valley, with low 70s elsewhere across our plains and mountain valleys.
726 AM EDT Tue May 27 2025 - Wednesday is the highest chance for rain - Warmer temperatures continue - Wednesday is the highest chance for rain We're looking at a mostly cloudy day today. Latest IR imagery shows abundant high clouds streaming over Lower MI ahead of the upper low that's well depicted in water vapor imagery over the Dakotas. Other models produce less, but the general theme is that rain is likely Wednesday as the low passes by.
446 AM CDT Tue May 27 2025 - A cool and damp (gloomy) day is expected across the region with some patchy fog, drizzle and cloudy skies helping to keep temperatures in the lower 60s across the region.
Warmer temperatures expected end of the week and into the weekend. UPDATE 500 mb broad upper low over the area. A broad upper low will be over the area today.
An upper ridge will build across the Pacific Northwest through Wednesday for dry, warmer weather.
627 AM EDT Tue May 27 2025 High pressure will slowly give way to a low pressure system tracking up the east coast later this week.
533 AM MDT Tue May 27 2025 - Warmer today than yesterday, though still cooler than seasonal normals for most locations. - Continued chances for showers and thunderstorms over the high country today. This will mean warmer temperatures for much of the area, though chances for showers and thunderstorms will still exist over the high country. Daytime highs look to be much warmer than yesterday, though still a couple of degrees shy of seasonal normals for most locations. Highs in the mid to upper 70s are likely over the Lower Arkansas River Valley, with low 70s elsewhere across our plains and mountain valleys.
Deep layer ridging has re-established itself across the region, which is helping to keep a lid on most activity, especially across our immediate area. High pressure will remain entrenched over the western North Atlantic for the next several days, meandering and fluctuating in strength slightly day to day.
657 AM EDT Tue May 27 2025 High pressure will cross the region later today through Wednesday.
506 AM CDT Tue May 27 2025 A ridge will stay anchored off to our east which will cause an overall stagnation in the regime and entrench westerly mid to upper level flow.
522 AM EDT Tue May 27 2025 High pressure will cross the region later today through Wednesday.
500 mb broad upper low over the area. A broad upper low will be over the area today.
644 AM CDT Tue May 27 2025 (Today) A broad belt of southwesterly flow aloft extends across the TN Valley this morning, within the gradient between a developing closed low across the northern Plains and a subtropical ridge centered over the southeastern Gulf/northwestern Caribbean Sea. Although the low-level jet will be on a weakening trend this afternoon, there are some indications that flow may be locally enhanced by a large MCV (originating from the same MCS) and this could lead to a minor increase in the risk for mesocyclone formation and perhaps a brief tornado or two.
552 AM PDT Tue May 27 2025 - Temperatures trending warmer with Minor and Moderate HeatRisk on Wednesday.
202 PM EDT Tue May 27 2025 High pressure will slowly give way to a low pressure system tracking up the east coast later this week.
1253 PM CDT Tue May 27 2025 As of 10:30 AM CDT, cloud cover from previous convection (that has held morning temperatures to the lower 70s) continues to drift eastward, yielding partly cloudy skies for this afternoon. Temperatures will respond accordingly, rising to the lower 80s and near-normal for this time of the year, if not slightly below- normal.
Issued by National Weather Service Bismarck ND 224 PM CDT Tue May 27 2025 - A cool and damp (gloomy) day is expected across the region with some patchy fog and cloudy skies helping to keep temperatures in the lower 60s today and Wednesday.
/SW/ A ridge will stay anchored off to our east which will cause an overall stagnation in the regime and entrench westerly mid to upper level flow.
- Cooler with thunderstorm chances each afternoon Wednesday through the weekend, some storms may become severe. - Warmer temperatures to return this weekend.
This wave is rotating around a closed upper low over the upper Midwest. A lobe of this upper low is then forecast to rotate northeast over our area on Wednesday, potentially giving another increase in activity as daytime heating/destabilization kicks in.
Water vapor shows a weak upper impulse rotating out of southwest KS and into western OK with a broad upper low remaining over the Northern Plains. At the surface, stationary front is now pushed down across Southern TX with weak high pressure across the Plains. The main driver for this convection will be a cold front expected to sink south with good 850mb convergence along it. There could be a few iso showers or storms over northeast and north central KS Thu afternoon as the upper trough takes its time sliding east.
Issued by National Weather Service Jackson KY 1147 AM EDT Tue May 27 2025 A low pressure system will approach the region today bringing rain to the area. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION--> Rain will move into the region today as a low pressures system approaches the area. As the area of low pressure moves through the region residual moisture will allow for shower activity continuing into tonight.
Weak flow in the low to mid-levels has trapped moisture in the area, resulting in persistent cloud cover. Upper-level ridging will spread eastward into the middle of the country, and be the primary driver for the warming conditions.
Issued by National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 143 PM EDT Tue May 27 2025 - Wednesday is the highest chance for rain - Warmer temperatures continue - Wednesday is the highest chance for rain We're looking at a mostly cloudy day today. Latest IR imagery shows abundant high clouds streaming over Lower MI ahead of the upper low that's well depicted in water vapor imagery over the Dakotas. Other models produce less, but the general theme is that rain is likely Wednesday as the low passes by.
Ridging to our south is continuing to give us a south to southwesterly flow across the area.
250 PM EDT Tue May 27 2025 High pressure will cross the region later today through Wednesday.
Large upper low will continue to move across the plains tonight. In the eastern half of the state unstable air close to this low could bring isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms through this evening. Of note though, with the low overhead, strong low level lapse rates, and adequate low level cape, perhaps a few funnel clouds are possible with these weak showers or thunderstorms.
Issued by National Weather Service Bismarck ND 1245 PM CDT Tue May 27 2025 - A cool and damp (gloomy) day is expected across the region with some patchy fog, drizzle and cloudy skies helping to keep temperatures in the lower 60s across the region.
152 PM EDT Tue May 27 2025 High pressure will slowly give way to a low pressure system tracking up the east coast later this week.
There is some indication fog may develop over southern Lake Michigan Wednesday as dewpoints increase and rain falls over the cooler waters of the lake.
Early Tuesday morning, a 500mb low was positioned over the Northern Plains, with several upper level waves rotating around this upper low. At the surface a cool high pressure ridge extended from southwest Kansas into Minnesota. This ridge axis was located north of a stationary front that stretched from southeast Colorado into the Texas Panhandle. 91 inches from early this Tuesday morning to around 1 inch by Wednesday afternoon ahead of this approaching upper level trough. On Wednesday, with abundant moisture in place and enhanced lift developing ahead of the advancing trough, widespread accumulating rainfall is highly likely (>80% chance), including periods of locally heavy rain during the afternoon and evening.
Issued by National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 348 PM EDT Tue May 27 2025 - Cooler on Wednesday with scattered to numerous light showers spreading across the area.
Omega block continues across CONUS, with a deepened trough over the northern plains bringing instability to the area. The deepened trough lingers around the northern plains, but translates slightly south and east toward the Great Lakes for Wednesday. As we progress into the end of the work week and into the weekend the omega block takes a hold of the northern plains ushering in warmer and drier air.
Satellite shows a broad upper level trough across the Dakotas and Minnesota. Isentropic lift on the 295- 300K surface is most concentrated north of I-70 this morning, but weakens mid-day before re- intensifying as the upper trough oozes southward. Clouds through much of the day will keep temperatures cool in the 60s, with warmer conditions in the east where temperatures are slightly warmer and clouds will be slightly thinner. As the upper trough sags southward, the majority of the system eventually comes under the influence of the southern branch of the upper jet shoving the upper trough into the Ohio Valley on Wednesday. With the upper trough gradually drifting east, expect more breaks to develop in the persistent cloud cover leading to warming temperatures.
Issued by National Weather Service Jackson KY 205 PM EDT Tue May 27 2025 A low pressure system will approach the region today bringing rain to the area. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION--> Rain will move into the region today as a low pressures system approaches the area. As the area of low pressure moves through the region residual moisture will allow for shower activity continuing into tonight.
Periods of showers and storms can be expected throughout the day with the highest chances in the afternoon with the combination of daytime heating and increasing PVA aloft.
1118 AM PDT Tue May 27 2025 - Temperatures trending warmer with Minor and Moderate HeatRisk on Wednesday.
- High pressure is expected to bring drier weather over the weekend.
Hi-Res guidance suggests that the storms will stay confined to southeast Wyoming this afternoon and evening as there is more instability present from more sun and warmer temperatures. Low stratus this morning and earlier this afternoon across the Nebraska panhandle has lead to a more stable environment with cooler temperatures. Severe potential looks even more limited on Wednesday with ample cloud cover and cooler, below average temperatures.
740 PM EDT Tue May 27 2025 Little change in this weather pattern is expected until late Wednesday, when a warm front will shift northward across the region.
Issued by National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 737 PM EDT Tue May 27 2025 - Cooler on Wednesday with scattered to numerous light showers spreading across the area.
Issued by National Weather Service Bismarck ND 639 PM CDT Tue May 27 2025 - A cool and damp (gloomy) day is expected across the region with some patchy fog and cloudy skies helping to keep temperatures in the lower 60s today and Wednesday.
721 PM EDT Tue May 27 2025 High pressure will slowly give way to a low pressure system tracking up the east coast later this week.
927 PM CDT Tue May 27 2025 Weak ridging in the low to mid-levels to allow for stable conditions across the region overnight. Otherwise, overnight lows forecast to average in the lower 60s across the region.
203 PM PDT Tue May 27 2025 - Temperatures trending warmer with Minor and Moderate HeatRisk on Wednesday.
Deep layered ridging reigns with a surface through lower level ridge stretching across Florida. The ridging has resulted in a well below normal precipitable water of 1. Surface conditions are seasonable with temperatures in the lower to mid 80s and dew points in the mid 70s. Ridging will remain in control through the overnight, as a result, surface winds will remain light to gentle out of the east to southeast. This will ensure seasonably warm and humid conditions with overnight lows in the lower 80s and dew points in the mid 70s. The low level inhibition is expected to weaken some through the night. Complicated ridging over the western North Atlantic reaches westward across Florida.
Overall forcing with this system has been relatively weak and, given that we're on the northern side of the low, rain showers have been primarily stratiform in nature. However, the parent 500H trough remains off to our northwest, with additional shots of energy working their way around the base in the larger flow. Very weak (almost zonal) ridging works into the region Wednesday evening, giving us a break from precipitation and a brief lifting of clouds (we won't clear out entirely though). We remain dry during the overnight hours, however, the next disturbance is already on the horizon- a slightly more organized area of low pressure under the same parent troughing pattern. An upper level trough axis will shift east across the eastern CONUS through the weekend.
UPDATE Tweaked POPs a bit across the region as we are getting some decent coverage with showers and a few thunderstorms from Devils Lake to Thief River Falls to Breckenridge. Omega block continues across CONUS, with a deepened trough over the northern plains bringing instability to the area. The deepened trough lingers around the northern plains, but translates slightly south and east toward the Great Lakes for Wednesday. As we progress into the end of the work week and into the weekend the omega block takes a hold of the northern plains ushering in warmer and drier air.
pdf An inverted trough will be located over region Tonight. The combination of convergence along the trough, and lift provided by upper wave will continue the showers and storms across SE GA.