Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
The National Blend of Models (NBM) suggests a 40 to 90 percent probability of wind gusts of 25 mph or greater through the day today, mainly along the I-5 corridor and in the higher elevations of the Coastal Range and Sierra Nevada where winds are the strongest.
605 AM CDT Thu Sep 12 2024 (Today and tonight) Upper level ridging across far West Texas will slowly begin build east. This will result in temperatures a few degrees warmer than what we saw yesterday.
957 AM EDT Thu Sep 12 2024 Dry weather and above average temperatures continue through the weekend with high pressure. ------------------------------------------------------------------- Dry weather continues today as high pressure remains dominant.
Warmer than normal temperatures will persist through the work week as dry weather continues. Cooler temperatures for the upcoming weekend as widespread precipitation chances return thanks to an infusion of tropical moisture. Not as hot today and tomorrow with afternoon breezes as an upper level trof passes by well to our north. Per the most recent NHC Tropical Weather Outlook "a broad area of low pressure located a couple hundred miles west-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico, is producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms.
926 AM EDT Thu Sep 12 2024 High pressure will remain in place over the next 7 days with above average temperatures and sunny skies. High pressure remains in place into the weekend with mostly clear skies and no chance of precipitation. 500 mb heights will increase to over 580 dm by Friday so temperatures will be well above average the next few days as the ridge strengthens. 155 AM Update High pressure will be in control through the first half of the weekend.
(Today through Friday) Mid-level ridging builds in over during the course of the day, allowing for a drier environment over Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley. As for the temperatures, the highs for today will continue to warm seeing parts of the region in the upper 90s and even reaching the triple digits. However, the high temperatures for tomorrow will continue to rise thus high temperatures for more areas will be in the triple digits. A Coastal Flood Advisory is in effect for the Lower Texas Coast through the later part of the morning.
Otherwise, forecast is largely on track for today with a quiet day of sunny skies and warmer temperatures (with the exception of Wildfire smoke that could make it appear cloudy/ hazy). Pattern/synopsis: High pressure off the east coast is extending ridging back into southern lower MI. Return flow continues around this high, but moisture return is non-existent. Will the haze/smoke be enough to get in the way of a very warm day? Temps varied either way compared the forecast yesterday: GLR was cooler than expected (clouds hung on too long), but TVC was warmer than forecast. A strengthening upper level ridge will be centered over MI Friday, and will slowly slip eastward over the next 5 days. Temperatuers will be warmer, but shouldn't become too hot (mid 80s max) due to trapped smoke under the ridge.
626 AM EDT Thu Sep 12 2024 A large area of high pressure will maintain control of the weather in the Ohio Valley today with an increase in cloud cover from the southwest ahead of the remnants of Francine. Mid level ridge to remain over the Great Lakes thru the Mid Atlantic. Remnants of Francine will track north thru the Lower MS Valley with some vanguard high level clouds spilling into the area from the southwest. Mid level ridge from the Great Lakes thru the Mid Atlantic will work as rex block. Low temperatures will range from the upper 50s northeast to the lower and middle 60s southwest. Unsettled weather is forecast to return as the remnants of Francine reach the Western Ohio Valley, though persistent high pressure to the north should limit the chance for heavy and widespread precip.
650 AM EDT Thu Sep 12 2024 High pressure will remain in place over the next 7 days with above average temperatures and sunny skies. High pressure remains in place into the weekend with mostly clear skies and no chance of precipitation. 500 mb heights will increase to over 580 dm by Friday so temperatures will be well above average the next few days as the ridge strengthens. 155 AM Update High pressure will be in control through the first half of the weekend.
High pressure continues to be in place over south Florida and a stationary frontal boundary over central Florida.
Ridging will build back into the region for the end of the work week.
734 AM EDT Thu Sep 12 2024 High pressure will remain in control of our weather through the next several days, bringing above normal temperatures and plenty of sunshine. High pressure continues to be the dominate weather feature across the Northeast, bringing pleasant weather and above normal temperatures to the region. Temperatures this afternoon will be a few degrees warmer than yesterday, with highs climbing into the upper 70s to low 80s this afternoon. Overnight lows will be a few degrees warmer due to southerly flow, with temperatures generally in the 50s. Synoptically quiescent conditions with very light winds - generally 5 mph or less - expected through the short-term forecast period with a deep-layer ridge anchored across the North Country.
747 AM EDT Thu Sep 12 2024 Dry weather and above average temperatures continue through the weekend with high pressure. Dry weather continues today as high pressure remains dominant.
539 AM EDT Thu Sep 12 2024 - Another warm and dry today with highs in the mid to upper 80s - Rainfall from Hurricane Francine late tonight into Friday across southern Indiana, northern extent likely near the I-74 corridor - Cooler weather with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s for the weekend. Cloud cover will gradually increase from the south to the north through the day which will help to limit the higher end warm air that was seen yesterday across southern Indiana, but the substantial sky cover won't be arriving across central and northern Indiana to provide much relief from the heat. These clouds and gradually increasing dew points will help to insulate temperatures and keep lows from falling below the low 60s.
Temperatures have dipped into the lower to middle 60s due to the rain, with gust east flow developing.
At the surface, high pressure remains in control with east to southeasterly flow prevailing. On Friday, the area of low pressure associated with he storm should begin to pull the aforementioned boundary north with lots of moisture still in the area. At the same time, high pressure moves south allowing west to southwesterly flow sets up. The highest chances should be over interior areas, but terminals along the coast could see some scattered activity as storms develop. High pressure continues to be in place keeping light east/southeast flow over the next few days.
1024 AM EDT Thu Sep 12 2024 High pressure will remain in control of our weather through the next several days, bringing above normal temperatures and plenty of sunshine. High pressure continues to be the dominate weather feature across the Northeast, bringing pleasant weather and above normal temperatures to the region. Temperatures this afternoon will be a few degrees warmer than yesterday, with highs climbing into the upper 70s to low 80s this afternoon. Overnight lows will be a few degrees warmer due to southerly flow, with temperatures generally in the 50s. Synoptically quiescent conditions with very light winds - generally 5 mph or less - expected through the short-term forecast period with a deep-layer ridge anchored across the North Country.
945 AM EDT Thu Sep 12 2024 - Another warm and dry today with highs in the mid to upper 80s - Rainfall from Hurricane Francine late tonight into Friday across southern Indiana, northern extent likely near the I-74 corridor - Cooler weather with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s for the weekend Forecast is in good shape this morning. Cloud cover will gradually increase from the south to the north through the day which will help to limit the higher end warm air that was seen yesterday across southern Indiana, but the substantial sky cover won't be arriving across central and northern Indiana to provide much relief from the heat. These clouds and gradually increasing dew points will help to insulate temperatures and keep lows from falling below the low 60s.
616 AM CDT Thu Sep 12 2024 - Rain chances with Tropical Storm Francine are likely (60-80%) along and east of the Highway 63 corridor beginning today and lasting through Friday.
Today: Stable precipitation will continue through much of the morning in southeastern Washington and the Idaho Panhandle as an upper low migrates from southern Idaho to southwestern Montana. Rain chances this afternoon are the greatest in Shoshone County as the low pivots east.
Weak upper ridging will produce drier conditions across the area today into Friday before another upper level trough arrives early in the weekend with additional chances for some precipitation.
1214 PM EDT Thu Sep 12 2024 High pressure will remain in place over the next 7 days with above average temperatures and sunny skies. High pressure remains in place into the weekend with mostly clear skies and no chance of precipitation. 500 mb heights will increase to over 580 dm by Friday so temperatures will be well above average the next few days as the ridge strengthens. 155 AM Update High pressure will be in control through the first half of the weekend.
345 PM EDT Thu Sep 12 2024 High pressure will support a stretch of dry and mostly sunny conditions through at least the upcoming weekend with temperatures trending above normal. Otherwise, clear to mostly clear tonight as deep subsidence associated with low level and upper level ridging in place. A very isolated shower cannot be ruled out in the southern Adirondacks, Lake George Saratoga Region to southern VT with the leftover weak low level boundary currently in northern areas and weak upper impulse in the northern periphery of the upper ridging but too low a probability to include in the forecast.
200 PM EDT Thu Sep 12 2024 High pressure will remain in control of our weather through the next several days, bringing above normal temperatures and plenty of sunshine. High pressure continues to be the dominate weather feature across the Northeast, bringing pleasant weather and above normal temperatures to the region. Temperatures this afternoon will be a few degrees warmer than yesterday, with highs climbing into the upper 70s to low 80s this afternoon. Overnight lows will be a few degrees warmer due to southerly flow, with temperatures generally in the 50s. Synoptically quiescent conditions with very light winds - generally 5 mph or less - expected through the short-term forecast period with a deep-layer ridge anchored across the North Country.
Upper low now moving into sw Montana with our CWA under cool, moist, northwest flow behind it. Then clearing and cooler tonight but still moist at low levels.
204 PM CDT Thu Sep 12 2024 * Warm today, cooler tomorrow, then seasonable to seasonably warm thereafter. This has resulted in temperatures once again being on the warm, and bit more humid, side with early afternoon temperatures widely in the low to mid 80s already, even a site or two approaching 90. Current sizable PNW trough/cutoff low will continue to be deflected northeastward into Canada as a high over low/Rex Block continues to set up with upper ridge/high building into the Great Lakes and Francine lingering in the Lower Mississippi River Valley. With weak upper level flow the result, there is some uncertainty on some of the details should western trough and subsequent waves be stronger and/or more southerly in nature or Rex Block stronger than progged.
Dry and cooler conditions will finish out the week, along with gusty southwest winds through early this evening and again Friday afternoon.
We will continue to monitor the winds this afternoon and any potential fire weather related concerns due to the low RH values and higher winds.
1248 PM CDT Thu Sep 12 2024 (Today through Friday) South-central Texas will be on the back side of an upper level trough, with dry and subsident conditions over the region. An upper level ridge will build across the region Friday.
An upper level trough was lifting northeast across the norther high Plains.
Light south to southwesterly mean flow along the island chain has promoted the generation of a series of cloud streamers pushing northeastward off the larger islands in the Lower and Middle Keys. Attached to this frontal boundary is decaying Tropical Depression Francine over the Lower Mississippi Valley. Meanwhile, high pressure over the North Atlantic extends westward towards the Florida Peninsula.
This afternoon, the center of low pressure from the remnants of Hurricane Francine are lifting north across Mississippi and is progged to stall near Memphis tonight and Friday. Over the weekend, the remnant upper low is progged to meander over the Tennessee Valley and weaken slightly. Models vary in the location of the upper low at any given time, but do show pin- wheeling vort lobes ejecting northward at times which will bring additional chances for scattered showers to portions of central Illinois.
1235 PM CDT Thu Sep 12 2024 (Today through Friday) Mid-level ridging builds in over during the course of the day, allowing for a drier environment over Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley. As for the temperatures, the highs for today will continue to warm seeing parts of the region in the upper 90s and even reaching the triple digits. However, the high temperatures for tomorrow will continue to rise thus high temperatures for more areas will be in the triple digits. A Coastal Flood Advisory is in effect for the Lower Texas Coast through the later part of the morning.
Looking at current water vapor imagery there is an upper level low system located over western Montana. Model forecast is for scattered showers and thunderstorms for this afternoon over these areas before drying out as the low continues to move eastward this evening into Friday morning. Friday the upper level low moves east in the morning. Expect light showers for our northeast areas mainly over Island Park in the early morning with drier conditions moving in from the west with very weak high pressure building in. Many mountain locations will be below freezing Friday morning.
1256 PM EDT Thu Sep 12 2024 High pressure will remain in place over the next 7 days with above average temperatures and sunny skies. High pressure remains in place into the weekend with mostly clear skies and no chance of precipitation. 500 mb heights will increase to over 580 dm by Friday so temperatures will be well above average the next few days as the ridge strengthens. 155 AM Update High pressure will be in control through the first half of the weekend.
500 mb trough continues to dig into eastern MT and southern Canada this afternoon, with strong southerly flow ahead of it pushing through North Dakota. Over the next 24 to 48 hours the trough is expected to shift through southern Canada bringing windy conditions to eastern North Dakota and the Red River Valley.
Over inland areas it will lift as a warm front, as remnants of Francine moves north into central US. The combination of the moist onshore flow, and lift from the warm front will keep above average chances for showers in the forecast. Lows in the lower to mid 70s will be common.
CIMSS satellite-derived vorticity analysis places an upper-level ridge docked just to the south of the Florida Keys. Meanwhile, at the surface, a quasistationary front remains draped across northern Florida, in conjunction with decaying Tropical Depression Francine over the Lower Mississippi Valley. An expansive area of high pressure centered in the eastern North Atlantic continues to interact with these other surface features, resulting light southerly breezes this last Thursday morning hour. Coastal Flood Statement remains in effect for the Middle and Upper Keys, and we expect this will need to be eventually expanded to cover the Lower Keys as well, perhaps as early as this afternoon.
(This evening through Friday) Current water vapor imagery this afternoon depicts the upper level trough barreling eastward through the northern portion of the Intermountain West. As these features begin to track east, so will the upper level ridge which will lead to warm and dry conditions across West Texas through the short term period. The warming trend then begins Friday as the upper level ridge moves in. With breezy southwest winds combined with increasing thickness value an clear skies we can expect much warmer temperatures than previous days in the upper 90s to lower 100s.
Upper level ridging will move into the area this afternoon into Friday. This ridging, along with 850mb temperatures warming 3 to 6 degrees Celsius will result in highs Friday afternoon in the mid 90s to around 100 degrees, and mostly sunny skies. Lee troughing will cause winds to turn more southerly and pick up to between 10 and 15 mph.
Otherwise, weak ridging aloft along with a more SW flow at the lower/ mid levels will allow for a decent warm-up across SE TX tomorrow. 2"), will allow temperatures to fall to mid to upper 60s across our northern CWA, and the lower 70s for H-Town proper south to the coast for tonight. As moisture returns tomorrow night, look for a slightly warmer night with lows in the lower to mid 70s.
Overnight lows will be the coldest experienced behind this weeks cold front as temperatures by daybreak will dip into mid to even lower 30s tonight, and a hard freeze is expected. Northwesterly flow exists across the central and northern portions of Nevada this evening and tonight in the upstream flow of the trough exiting the western CONUS to the northeast. Upper level flow will become more zonal by midday tomorrow as the lingering effects of the trough leave the region and ridging attempts to build into the SW CONUS.
Warmer than normal temperatures and dry conditions will persist through Friday.
High pressure influence remains the driving narrative governing conditions during the next 24 hours. Medium range guidance is in strong agreement that a ridge centroid will flank the remnants of Francine and become a dipole with Southeast Michigan remaining under the high pressure influence.
The instability will increase on Friday but the low level shear will decrease. Winds will increase this afternoon as the low continues north along the Mississippi River. Winds will relax some overnight as the low weakens.
240 PM MDT Thu Sep 12 2024 First cold front was basically through the forecast area at 20Z. An upper low could be seen rotating over W MT on water vapor imagery, while a strong jet rounding the base of the low was bringing upper divergence to the eastern part of the area. Areas of frontogenesis were occurring with the 700 mb cold front and PWAT's of 0. Upper low was forecast to be N of the Canadian border by Friday morning. Arthur High pressure will build back over the region for the weekend bringing warmer and drier conditions.
Moisture in the lower levels is not terribly impressive, so will not be too aggressive with the cloud cover at this time.
Temperatures tonight will be a bit cool as the upper trough that picked up Francine works its way into the region. Friday night again with continued dry air moving into the region, overnight lows will be a bit "fresher" with nearly all locations being a few degrees cooler than Friday morning.
A stationary frontal boundary remains stretched from west to east across northern Florida, while high pressure ridges through the Florida Straits.
Where winds are onshore of Superior and Lake Michigan, temperatures are staying limited to the 70s, but plenty of areas in the interior UP are climbing in to the lower to mid 80s. Otherwise, expect temperatures to fall back into the 50s across most of the area, while temperatures stay closer to 60F along the lakeshores and potentially drop further into the 40s in some of the typically cooler spots inland. Remains of Francine will be over the lower Mississippi Valley 00z Fri with a trough in the Rockies and a ridge over the upper Great Lakes. Troughing pushes into the northern Plains 00z Sat. The ridge gets pushed into the eastern U. 00z Sun as a broad trough remains over the western half of the U.
133 PM EDT Thu Sep 12 2024 Dry weather and above average temperatures continue through the weekend with high pressure. ------------------------------------------------------------------- Dry weather continues today as high pressure remains dominant.
An approaching trough will bring the next chance for rain to the area Friday evening/overnight. Scattered thunderstorm development is possible (15-25%) along a cold front Friday evening.
(Tonight through Friday night) Warm and rain-free conditions will prevail across Deep South Texas through the short term period as the region remains under the influence of mid-level ridging. For the Lower Texas beaches, a Coastal Flood Statement will continue through this evening as conditions continue to gradually improve.
1208 PM CDT Thu Sep 12 2024 (Today and tonight) Upper level ridging across far West Texas will slowly begin build east. This will result in temperatures a few degrees warmer than what we saw yesterday.
258 PM EDT Thu Sep 12 2024 High pressure will dominate the pattern for several more days, bringing above normal temperatures and plenty of sunshine. The amplifying upper trough that would provide some forcing for ascent will be far to the east such that enhanced moisture will stay well to the east of our region. Otherwise, this period really is just part of a stagnant weather pattern, with just a slight shift towards stronger ridging and warmer conditions. We continue to be directly under ridging at the sfc and aloft, resulting in plenty of dry wx and much above normal temps.
- Dry and warmer weather returns Friday into the weekend. A closed low is over ID this morning, with southerly flow predominant over the Cowboy State. The associated cold front looks to have passed through the central basins already this morning, judging by the cloud streaks occurring from the Bighorns southward to the eastern half of Sweetwater County. The heaviest precipitation will be over northwestern portions through this evening due to the proximity of the low, as noted by the previous shift. Snowfall accumulations will be highly variable through midnight, but up to 6 inches could occur for the higher elevations. Precipitation will end across the area through Friday morning, as the upper low moves over Saskatchewan. Temperatures will be much cooler and more seasonal for mid-September.
Overnight lows will probably be a few degrees cooler tonight given slightly drier air (upper 50s/ lower 60s), especially in the typically colder locations with little cloud cover (mid-upper 50s). (Tomorrow through Thursday) Remnants of Francine will continue to linger around the southeastern states through the weekend with upper level ridging attempting to build in over the plains. Additional precip chances arrive by mid-late week as W CONUS troughing attempts to push into the region.
120 PM EDT Thu Sep 12 2024 A large area of high pressure will maintain control of the weather in the Ohio Valley today with an increase in cloud cover from the southwest ahead of the remnants of Francine. Mid level ridge from the Great Lakes thru the Mid Atlantic will work as rex block. Low temperatures will range from the upper 50s northeast to the lower and middle 60s southwest. Unsettled weather is forecast to return as the remnants of Francine reach the Western Ohio Valley, though persistent high pressure to the north should limit the chance for heavy and widespread precip.
629 PM CDT Thu Sep 12 2024 (Tonight through Friday night) Warm and rain-free conditions will prevail across Deep South Texas through the short term period as the region remains under the influence of mid-level ridging. For the Lower Texas beaches, a Coastal Flood Statement will continue through this evening as conditions continue to gradually improve.