Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Tonight: A surface pressure trough analyzed from central SD into central NE as of noon is forecast to shift east into our area late tonight into Monday morning. A slightly cooler low-level air mass will be pulled south in the wake of that migratory system with highs in the upper 30s to upper 40s Monday cooling slightly to mid 30s to mid 40s Tuesday.
During the period, a general upper level trough will be found over the eastern U. with an upper level ridge over the Mountain West.
1039 PM CST Sun Jan 28 2024 (Tonight through Monday night) Key Messages: - Patchy fog overnight Ridging aloft and at the surface will maintain dry and pleasant conditions across South Texas through the short-term range. However, based on the latest guidance projected amount of moisture available in the lower levels, it may be mostly shallow and it should lift by the mid morning hours on Monday as the grounds begin to warm. Lows tonight will generally range from the mid to upper 30s into the low to mid 40s areawide. Monday will be warmer as the flow becomes more onshore during the day. Monday night lows will run a few degrees warmer than tonight, but still in the 40s range.
Across portions of southwest Arkansas, southeast Oklahoma and isolated areas of northeast Texas and north Louisiana where temperatures manage to drop below freezing, patchy freezing fog will be possible around daybreak.
Gradually backing 1000-850mb flow, to west on Lakes MI/Superior by 12Z, will bring in somewhat warmer and drier air.
08 Previous short-term discussion: (This afternoon through Monday) The upper level longwave trough axis is currently passing through the Deep South with northwest flow from the surface to 700mb. The potent upper level low is currently centered over the central Appalachians, with just enough lingering lift and moisture to produce occasional drizzle. Chilly temperatures can be expected as a result as highs only top out in the 40s and lower 50s, with gusty winds between 20 and 25mph making conditions feel even cooler. Low temperatures will be chilly in the 30s, but we're not expected to reach the freezing mark due to the persistent cloudcover and mixed boundary layer.
The weak upper low, that has been sitting over the region today, will also pull eastward and take the lift and deep moisture with it. Overnight period is expected to feature waning lift as the low heads east, with dry advection in northwest flow along with subsidence squelching precipitation chances. Any remaining precipitation should change over to snow with accumulations less than 1 inch outside of the higher terrain.
The cold front pushed through the Keys late this afternoon, and since then, northwest to north winds have averaged 20 to 25 knots at the Reef. The strong breezes will continue overnight as temperatures fall into the lower 60s.
1219 AM CST Mon Jan 29 2024 (This evening through Tuesday) Calmer and drier conditions will be seen for the short term period as high pressure settles across the state tonight. Highs will warm into the low 50s to mid 60s. Highs will range from the low to mid 50s across the north.
(Tonight through Tuesday night) High pressure remains over the forecast area today, tonight, and Tuesday. With the 500 mb ridge just upstream of south Texas, the next few days are expected to remain rain free. There will be some moisture that moves into the forecast area tonight into Tuesday from the 500 mb trough over the Pacific just off Baja California, which will affect our weather as we get into the weekend.
Finally some sunshine around the Northland this afternoon after being stuck in the clouds and fog day after day! Broad upper level ridging across the western CONUS will continue to influence the weather through Monday morning. Thus, some periods of drizzle or possibly freezing drizzle will be possible along with chances for flurries or light snow showers.
1237 AM EST Mon Jan 29 2024 Low clouds are spreading southeastward into the region and will keep temps a couple degrees warmer than previously forecast and that is reflected in this update. Expect daytime highs generally in the upper 50s to low 60s with overnight lows generally in the low 40s.
(Today and tonight) Expect continued benign and dry weather through tonight, with weak upper-level ridging and zonal (west to east) flow aloft set up over West Central Texas today. Looks like quiet and mild weather for mid week as an upper level high pressure ridge will build over the Southern Plains.
1009 PM CST Sun Jan 28 2024 (This evening through Monday) Our region continues to reside under northwest flow with the upper ridge centered over the southwestern CONUS. With temperatures expected to fall below freezing over northern Oklahoma, areas of freezing fog could develop and lead to slippery bridges and overpasses. Max temperatures are forecast to rise into the 60's with somewhat cooler temperatures over north-central Oklahoma due to fog.
1044 PM CST Sun Jan 28 2024 (This evening through Monday) Mild temperatures this afternoon will only make further gains on Monday as northwesterly flow aloft becomes westerly ahead of a flattening ridge. Fortunately, surface winds remain on the gentle side through tomorrow thanks to a very weak SW gradient flow east of lee troughing in NM. Other than some cirrus spilling downstream of the ridge on Monday, clear skies will prevail with lows tonight faring a bit milder under light west winds.
Relatively quiet weather pattern is set up now with a ridge of high pressure over much of Eastern Idaho.
- A bit cooler Tuesday, but overall more pleasant. - Adiabatic warming will provide for warmer weather, continued snow melt and some sunshine as well. Though we have a warm front moving east into the state toward 06z, the ridge will still be holding on in the east through the evening. The fog is likely to burn off sooner tomorrow with a bit of mixing and warmer air spreading east during the morning. Confidence: Medium to High Tuesday will be cooler over the area; especially the northeast.
Partial clearing may take place in far northwest AL late tonight, and this is where temperatures may even bottom out in the lower 30s. Northwest winds are varying from light to at times gusting to 15-20kt, but should also tend to diminish as high pressure edges east into the lower MS Valley. (Monday through Tuesday Night) Upper ridging over the region will be short-lived as a cutoff low drops down from Wisconsin to Kentucky Tuesday afternoon through the evening. High pressure will be present at the surface until a cold front, coincident with the upper low, sweeps over the Tennessee Valley Tuesday evening.
1232 AM EST Mon Jan 29 2024 The anticipated cold front has finally begun to encroach on South Florida, with many METARs indicating a WNW wind shift across much of the region. (Rest of today through Monday) Afternoon analysis shows an upper level trough digging through the eastern US, with upper level ridging over the western US. At the surface, a cold front associated with a system moving off the Mid- Atlantic coast is starting to move across South FL, and it will quickly dive south of the area this evening. SW winds become W/NW later today behind the front, and much drier conditions expected as cooler air moves in from the north as high pressure builds in.
A weak cold front will sag into North Texas later in the daytime associated with an Ohio Valley upper low, but this feature will largely go unnoticed with near-neutral thermal advection across the boundary. /Issued 343 PM CST Sun Jan 28 2024/ /Tuesday Onward/ Warm temperatures will continue through midweek as ridging continues to move into the region, pushing the northeastern CONUS trough further off shore.
1110 PM CST Sun Jan 28 2024 The back edge of the low stratus deck has made quick and further progress eastward early this evening than previously anticipated. These areas may be able to more effectively radiate, so temperatures should be slightly cooler, in the low 30s. Clouds should lift further Monday as the high pushes east and temperatures will remain seasonal with highs in the 50s.
1258 AM EST Mon Jan 29 2024 A low pressure system will move off the mid Atlantic and New Coasts tonight. High pressure will then build in for Monday. Another low pressure system and cold front will drop southeast across the region on Tuesday. In addition, more clouds will be advancing in from the northwest ahead of the next low pressure system and cold front. Lows will be mainly in the lower 30s. A vertically-stacked low pressure system will dive in from the northwest on Tuesday. First off, PBL temperatures will likely be just above freezing which supports a on and off mix of rain and snow depending on precipitation intensity locally.
1034 PM CST Sun Jan 28 2024 - Potential (40-60%) for redevelopment of fog and freezing fog tonight into early Monday morning. A strong upper level ridge continues to expand across the western US. Also of note will be the potential for freezing fog as temps look to be a few degrees colder than this morning with the HREF also showing a 40-60% chances for temps to drop below 30 degrees across the same areas.
Early morning water vapor satellite imagery is showing a dry air mass over the Florida Peninsula as the recent cold front pushes south of Florida. The breezy winds will also keep the high risk of rip currents in place along the coast.
The back edge of the low stratus deck has made quick and further progress eastward early this evening than previously anticipated. These areas may be able to more effectively radiate, so temperatures should be slightly cooler, in the low 30s. Clouds should lift further Monday as the high pushes east and temperatures will remain seasonal with highs in the 50s.
1221 AM EST Mon Jan 29 2024 A low pressure system will move off the mid Atlantic and New Coasts tonight. High pressure will then build in for Monday. Another low pressure system and cold front will drop southeast across the region on Tuesday. In addition, more clouds will be advancing in from the northwest ahead of the next low pressure system and cold front. Lows will be mainly in the lower 30s. A vertically-stacked low pressure system will dive in from the northwest on Tuesday. First off, PBL temperatures will likely be just above freezing which supports a on and off mix of rain and snow depending on precipitation intensity locally.
(Today through Tuesday) Model solutions and sfc analyses show a trough/low complex moving away from the eastern seaboard and forcing an associated frontal boundary past the peninsula and into the Caribbean. Broad/strong high pressure has established over the region in the wake of the FROPA, with brisk northerly flow keeping afternoon max temps in the mid-upper 60s for most of SoFlo today. Coldest temps are still expected tonight into Tuesday with morning lows in the low-mid 40s around the Lake region and interior, and upper 40s to low 50s around coastal areas.
117 AM EST Mon Jan 29 2024 A dry and cooler air mass is spreading across the region. High pressure will dominate through Tuesday with seasonable temperatures.
Updated at 239 AM CST Fri Jan 17 2025 - Cold front arrives Friday - very warm ahead of it, and much colder behind it.
1212 AM EST Fri Jan 17 2025 High pressure and below normal temperatures will continue for the remainder of the work-week. Low pressure will bring milder temperatures and some rain back to the Carolinas for the weekend.
1122 PM CST Thu Jan 16 2025 Dry and warmer conditions continue, with highs in the 50s once again tomorrow.
1114 PM CST Thu Jan 16 2025 (Tonight through Friday night) High pressure will lead to very pleasant weather to end the work week with light to occasionally moderate easterly flow.
Split flow U/L pattern persists attm across the CONUS, however this will significantly change over the next 24 to 48 hours as a high amplitude pattern takes shape with a deep L/W trough developing from Hudson Bay to the southern Plains. Further upstream, a sharp ridge will build from off the west coast of the U. Combination of the sharp ridge and deep trough will create a conveyor belt for an arctic airmass to plunge south out of Canada and across the central/southern U.
Lows will be seasonable near freezing (30-36F). With wind staying up a bit more in some areas and an increase in high clouds, it won't be quite as cool as this morning, but some areas will still be near/below freezing.
120 AM MST Fri Jan 17 2025 An upper level trough is in the process of dipping into the region this morning and this will bring with it some light snowfall and much colder temperatures in its wake. Not much has changed with the precipitation forecast with this trough/cold front. The primary focus area for this based off the latest runs of the global and hi-res model guidance appears to be across the eastern highlands and into the lower portion of the Snake River Plain and into the south hills.
1135 PM CST Thu Jan 16 2025 - Patchy freezing fog remains a possibility late tonight in areas from near I-72 southward.
Low pressure moving across Arizona has brought some light rain and snow showers to areas along and south of the I- 40 corridor. The low weakens as it pulls off to the east, taking any lingering showers with it.
1028 PM EST Thu Jan 16 2025 A weak trough of low pressure crosses the region late tonight followed by high pressure on Friday.
252 AM EST Fri Jan 17 2025 - Above freezing temperatures persist today, which will allow for continued snowmelt.
919 PM CST Thu Jan 16 2025 - Patchy freezing fog remains a possibility late tonight in areas from near I-72 southward.
As an Arctic cold front moves southeast through the area, the winds will increase and there will be scattered showers.
1127 PM CST Thu Jan 16 2025 - Fog and freezing fog are possible late tonight into early Friday, with the greatest potential in the northern portions of the Quad State with snow cover. - Warmer temperatures through Friday will melt off much of the remaining snow cover in the north. - Rain moves through Friday night, ahead of an Arctic cold front that may bring in the coldest air this winter behind it.
240 AM CST Fri Jan 17 2025 - Patchy freezing fog lingering across east-central and southeastern IL this morning and should clear out as the sun rises. - Rain to move in tonight ahead of a cold frontal passage, which will also usher in much colder temperatures behind it.
- Well above-normal temperatures and windy conditions on Friday, followed by a strong cold frontal passage Friday night.
Secondary cold front will push south across the International border after 09Z, and will bring another surge of gusty winds along with increasing chances for low level cloud cover and scattered snow showers. Today will be the last day of temperatures above freezing. We currently are sitting under a slight ridge aloft with a thermal ridge at 850mb, at the surface a ridge is present. An arctic cold front will violently sweep through the region, dropping temperatures and creating very windy northwest winds. Light snow is possible with the cold front. Timing for the frontal passage is Friday morning around 12z, however the pressure gradient off the low will move through overnight. The fast moving cold front will be through North Dakota and into South Dakota by 18z.
513 AM CST Fri Jan 17 2025 Updated at 512 AM CST Fri Jan 17 2025 - Cold front arrives Friday - very warm ahead of it, and much colder behind it.
313 AM CST Fri Jan 17 2025 - One more day of warmer temperatures as highs climb into the mid 40's to mid 50's. - Rain moves through Friday night, ahead of an Arctic cold front that may bring in the coldest air this winter behind it.
223 AM MST Fri Jan 17 2025 KEY MESSAGES: 1) Temperatures will gradually fall today after an arctic cold front moves through this morning.
939 AM EST Fri Jan 17 2025 A ridge of high pressure builds in today.
618 AM EST Fri Jan 17 2025 A ridge of high pressure builds in today.
526 AM EST Fri Jan 17 2025 A warmer clear day today before a weekend storm system brings in rain/snow for the region with light accumulation of precipitation is expected. 2) Another relatively warmer and sunnier day. The high pressure will permit another day of sun region wide but this is expected to be short-lived. Freezing rain and sleet are still possible but not expected to be the dominant precipitation type. Temperatures will be relatively warmer, especially compared to earlier this week. Wind chills this morning are in the teens and lower 20s along and west of the Blue Ridge and in the 20s towards the east. The highs for today, however, are expected to be in the 30s along and west of the Blue Ridge 40s towards the east.
324 AM MST Fri Jan 17 2025 - Gusty north to northwest winds continue this morning along a cold frontal passage.
Should these areas remain socked in with clouds, the high temperature could be at risk by a few degrees. Where fog and stratus sets up, we could have temperatures remain warmer than expected. Adjusted temperatures a few degrees warmer for North Bay, South Bay, and interior Monterey County valleys with NBM90.
516 AM EST Fri Jan 17 2025 A warmer clear day today before a weekend storm system brings in rain/snow for the region with light accumulation of precipitation is expected. 2) Another relatively warmer and sunnier day. The high pressure will permit another day of sun region wide but this is expected to be short-lived. Freezing rain and sleet are still possible but not expected to be the dominant precipitation type. Temperatures will be relatively warmer, especially compared to earlier this week. Wind chills this morning are in the teens and lower 20s along and west of the Blue Ridge and in the 20s towards the east. The highs for today, however, are expected to be in the 30s along and west of the Blue Ridge 40s towards the east.
534 AM CST Fri Jan 17 2025 - An arctic cold front will move into the area later today into tonight.
524 AM CST Fri Jan 17 2025 - Patchy freezing fog lingering across east-central and southeastern IL this morning and should clear out as the sun rises. - Rain to move in tonight ahead of a cold frontal passage, which will also usher in much colder temperatures behind it.
- Well above-normal temperatures and windy conditions expected today, followed by a strong cold front passage tonight into Saturday.
- Gusty north to northwest winds continue this morning along a cold frontal passage.
527 AM CST Fri Jan 17 2025 - Well above-normal temperatures and windy conditions expected today, followed by a strong cold front passage tonight into Saturday.
540 AM CST Fri Jan 17 2025 - One more day of warmer temperatures as highs climb into the mid 40's to mid 50's. - Rain moves through Friday night, ahead of an Arctic cold front that may bring in the coldest air this winter behind it.
A dry cold front approaching from the north will bring cooler temperatures to Northern Nevada this afternoon.
KDVL just gusted to 50 MPH, as the cold front is making its way into the area this morning.
713 AM EST Fri Jan 17 2025 Split flow U/L pattern persists attm across the CONUS, however this will significantly change over the next 24 to 48 hours as a high amplitude pattern takes shape with a deep L/W trough developing from Hudson Bay to the southern Plains. Further upstream, a sharp ridge will build from off the west coast of the U. Combination of the sharp ridge and deep trough will create a conveyor belt for an arctic airmass to plunge south out of Canada and across the central/southern U. On Saturday, an area of low pressure will develop along the leading edge of the cold air/strong baroclinic zone over the Lower Mississippi Valley. The area of low pressure will track across the southeast U.
This (Friday) morning should be our last morning dealing with low stratus and freezing fog, as the incoming dry air will erode the stubborn patches of stratus remaining in the northern valleys, ID Panhandle valleys, Spokane/Coeur d'Alene, and from Rosalia down to Pullman. The colder northern valleys including the Methow Valley and Republic area will likely see temperatures in the low to mid single digits. The deep Columbia Basin including Moses Lake and Ephrata will stay slightly warmer in the upper teens to low 20s. Afternoon highs today (Friday) will be similar to those yesterday in the low 30s for most locations and the upper 30s for warmer spots including Wenatchee, Moses Lake, Coulee Dam, and Lewiston.
446 AM CST Fri Jan 17 2025 - Mild again today, but a cold front moves through the region this afternoon/evening.
418 AM CST Fri Jan 17 2025 - Mild again today, but a cold front moves through the region this afternoon/evening.
343 AM CST Fri Jan 17 2025 - An arctic cold front will move into the area later today into tonight.
- Well above-normal temperatures and windy conditions expected this afternoon, followed by a strong cold front passage tonight into Saturday.
247 PM CST Fri Jan 17 2025 - A cold front is moving through the region this afternoon/evening.
1213 PM EST Fri Jan 17 2025 High pressure will build across the area today with a brief period of dry conditions with decreasing clouds this afternoon and evening. A cold front will push through the state late Saturday with a period of snow and rain.
Updated at 221 PM CST Fri Jan 17 2025 - Cold front moves across area through tonight.
The upper low that brought scattered rain and snow showers overnight is now located over southeast Arizona, and will exit into New Mexico this morning. Low pressure moving across Arizona has brought some light rain and snow showers to areas along and south of the I- 40 corridor. The low weakens as it pulls off to the east, taking any lingering showers with it.
Warm air advection will allow for overnight lows to range from the upper 30s across southeast Oklahoma to the lower 50s across portions of north Louisiana. A dry cold front will move across the region on Saturday with strong arctic high pressure building in its wake. Otherwise, overnight lows on Saturday night will range from the upper teens across southeast Oklahoma to near freezing across portions of north Louisiana.
1112 AM CST Fri Jan 17 2025 - Well above-normal temperatures and windy conditions expected today, followed by a strong cold front passage tonight into Saturday.
1151 AM CST Fri Jan 17 2025 - An arctic cold front will move into the area later today into tonight.
137 PM CST Fri Jan 17 2025 - There is a 40% chance of snow squalls this afternoon along and behind a strong cold front. - Strong northwest winds behind a cold front will produce wind gusts of 35 to 50 mph along the North Shore tonight.
A cold front has pushed through the area and post frontal winds are already on the increase this morning. While high temperatures will warm above freeing at most lower elevation sites (below 4500 feet MSL), the wind chill will remain at or below freezing across the area today. The colder air mass and wind will mix out the low-level inversion, flushing out haze that has collected over the last several days.
915 AM CST Fri Jan 17 2025 - Rain will move in tonight ahead of a cold frontal passage, which will also usher in much colder temperatures behind it.
1141 AM CST Fri Jan 17 2025 - Rain will move in tonight ahead of a cold frontal passage, which will also usher in much colder temperatures behind it.
228 PM CST Fri Jan 17 2025 - An arctic cold front will bring strong northerly winds of 20 to 40 mph across our area this afternoon and evening.
1145 AM CST Fri Jan 17 2025 - One more day of warmer temperatures as highs climb into the mid 40's to mid 50's. - Rain moves through Friday night, ahead of an Arctic cold front that may bring in the coldest air this winter behind it.
142 PM EST Fri Jan 17 2025 - Above freezing temperatures persist today, which will allow for continued snowmelt. - A strong cold front arrives overnight tonight into early Saturday, which will bring in precipitation that starts as rain and quickly changes over to snow.
For today we have a warm front stretched along the Florida Keys. This is producing thicker cloud cover and keeping temperatures cooler. Models have slowed down a bit in regards to our weekend cold front. This will result in a nice and mainly dry Saturday with warmer temperatures in place.