Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
High pressure continues to influence the Great Basin with dry and hot weather persisting. Today through Sunday Night Gradually expanding and strengthening high pressure over the western U. Daytime high temperatures today will be in the low 90s to low 100s, generally remaining so for Sunday but with temperatures near or greater than 100 degrees becoming more prevalent across the western half of the forecast area.
Eyes will be A stalled cold front will stay to our west through the day, enhancing coverage of afternoon/evening convection near and west of I-95. Highlights: *Bit cooler with above normal rain chances inland *No significant impacts expected Confidence: *Moderate Details: A stalled front inland along with plentiful moisture and some upper forcing will lead to higher than normal rain chances inland with coastal areas likely to miss out on most of the rain given the onshore flow/sea breeze.
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Northwest flow will continue over the region through the weekend before the Pacific upper ridge begins building eastward. By Sunday the upper trough will shift eastward enough for any storm development to be generally near the North Dakota border.
Cooler today, with isolated to scattered convection possible Low level flow will be from the east/southeast today, which will result in cooler temperatures across the area. In fact, temperatures today will be near or slightly below normal for this time of year, with afternoon highs mainly the lower 90s, although a few mid 90s will occur across the Concho Valley. Lows tonight will be in the lower 70s.
839 AM MDT Sat Jul 6 2024 Cooler than average temperatures persist for most areas through Sunday.
Storm chances actually look better tonight behind an incoming cold front. Besides storms, Sunday will be post-frontal, so looking at cooler, below average daytime highs. A few more days of northerly to northwesterly flow early in the week as the exiting potent upper level trough axis digs further south into the southern Great Plains states before ejecting eastward. Expect a slow warming trend to start off the week as the upper level high over the Great Basin Region slowly drifts east and amplifies over the southwest United States.
621 AM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024 (Today) Showers across the region have come to an end early this morning as a cold front continues to push southeast through the local area. High pressure will become the bigger influence in local weather today, as an upper low lifts north through the Great Lakes region and upper troughing broadens out over the Midwest. Although afternoon highs will still reach the low 90s today, lower dewpoints will thankfully keep heat index values below 100 degrees, topping out in the mid to upper 90s.
Cooler than average temperatures persist for most areas through Sunday.
735 AM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024 A slightly less humid afternoon today in wake of a cold front with lots of sunshine.
514 AM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024 (Today) Dry conditions anticipated for today, with continued decrease in clouds resulting in high temps a bit warmer compared to yesterday.
625 AM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024 (Saturday through Sunday) High pressure is back across our Four-States with a 1017mb core in KN drifting toward MO before lunchtime. Light NW winds are edging our dew points down into the lower 70s, but the real drier air is having a tough time with lots of calm over E OK, so we are just not seeing much advection at this time. Overnight lows will be in the lower 70s on average and then highs tomorrow will be warmer with less cloudiness early, but more a chance for rainfall with coverage unfolding as our front lifts back northward Sunday.
1029 AM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024 A diffuse cold front appears to be moving through the area this morning, or perhaps just south, best identified by a dewpoint gradient from lower/mid 70s dewpoints in the NC border counties and northern GA, to mid/upper 60s dewpoints in the Plateau, Middle TN, and eastern KY. Discussion: In the upper levels, a broad trough remains over the Great Plains and the Midwest. At the surface, a cold front will move through the region early this morning, weak high pressure will move in behind it.
The low level jet veering over the area should help drive this activity, along with passing differential CVA. More chances for showers and storms are forecast for Sunday afternoon and night, as continued differential CVA occurs with some warm and moist advection in the low levels.
Otherwise, temperatures will be slightly cooler than Saturday's numbers.
1241 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024 (Today through Sunday) A gentle split flow is occurring over the area this morning from the interaction between the upper outflow from Beryl and an upper trough to the north.
- Isolated Flash Flooding possible Temperatures have risen into the lower to mid 90s. Upper trough sets up across the middle of the U. , with the southeastern States still on the western edge of the Atlantic Ridge aloft.
Given the high moisture content of the atmosphere along the Gulf Coast region (2.
The region is under weak ridging this weekend as a longwave trough holds down the Central U. , Beryl moves NW in the W Gulf and an upper low spins NE of the Bahamas.
The upper trough will aid in the development of some showers this afternoon that will likely persist into the early evening. A cooler than normal afternoon is expected by July standards with highs for the most part holding in the 70s due to the clouds. - Isolated Showers and Storms Today Fairly tranquil weather expected over the weekend as upper troughing prevails, but model soundings show a drying trend through Sunday. Model soundings are drying out and surface ridging builds in on Sunday, so we will continue the dry forecast.
Drier air has been building into the area through the day, and along with boundary layer mixing, dewpoints have dropped into the lower and mid 60s in many spots. With a broad trough and jet streak to our NW, some scattered cloud cover may linger overnight, but with the falling dewpoints, lows should be mainly in the 60s overnight. Valley locations should stay dry with highs in the lower 90s in most spots.
Showers and isolated thunderstorms are beginning to develop along the sea breeze across the Cape Fear region as well as further inland along the Piedmont trough. A stalled cold front will stay to our west through the day, enhancing coverage of afternoon/evening convection near and west of I-95. Highlights: *Bit cooler with above normal rain chances inland *No significant impacts expected Confidence: *Moderate Details: A stalled front inland along with plentiful moisture and some upper forcing will lead to higher than normal rain chances inland with coastal areas likely to miss out on most of the rain given the onshore flow/sea breeze.
1057 AM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024 (Rest of Today) Mostly sunny skies will persist today as a surface weak cold front stalls to our south over Central Alabama. Otherwise, temperatures will climb back into the low to mid 90s this afternoon with the notable difference of dew points in the mid 60s and a light wind from the north, helping it feel a little better outside than it has previously this week.
Similar conditions are expected tomorrow with 10% or less PoPs and afternoon highs in the low to mid 90s.
(The rest of today) No changes to the forecast planned for today as broad surface ridging dominates the area through this evening. More sunshine today will allow temperatures to warm several degrees warmer than yesterday as highs are expected to top out in the lower to mid 90s for most locations.
(Sunday through Saturday) The aforementioned thunderstorm complex is expected to move into parts of northeast Oklahoma Sunday morning, likely in a declining state intensity-wise given the lower instability this far east. Higher instability positioned across the western half of Oklahoma and the location of the upper level support will favor areas just west of the forecast area for severe weather and the higher rainfall totals.
Reasonably steep mid-level lapse rates extend about halfway into the forecast area from the west and sufficient CAPE and effective shear support this cluster or bow of storms to continue eastward eastern Nebraska, limited on the north end by leftover cloud debris and cooler temperatures as a result of limited daytime heating. By the time the storms system has passed through the area, it'll be around 10 PM with a few light showers trailing the main line of storms to the east with a cooler night in store with lows expected to be in the upper 50s to low 60s. After midnight, the low-level just is expected to be in full swing with it nosing across eastern Nebraska and Iowa, where light rain and a few rumbles of thunder will bring light rain to portions of the area heading into Sunday.
Sunday will be defined by rising heights as the ridge to our west starts its slow migration to the east. Overall, temperatures will be similar to today in the high 70s to low 80s.
110 PM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024 A diffuse cold front appears to be moving through the area this morning, or perhaps just south, best identified by a dewpoint gradient from lower/mid 70s dewpoints in the NC border counties and northern GA, to mid/upper 60s dewpoints in the Plateau, Middle TN, and eastern KY. Discussion: In the upper levels, a broad trough remains over the Great Plains and the Midwest. At the surface, a cold front will move through the region early this morning, weak high pressure will move in behind it.
As we reach peak heating, highs will reach the lower to mid-90s, with some upper 90s possible over the interior.
expansive area of high pressure over the North Atlantic, currently centered to the northwest of the Azores, with its axis south of the Straits of Florida.
Temperatures reaching the lower to middle 90's coupled with high dewpoints in the middle to upper 70's inland and lower 80's nearer the coast will support another day of heat index values exceeding 105 to 110 degrees. In southeastern Mississippi, storm and cloud coverage should remain sufficient to keep temperatures slightly cooler, and likewise heat index values of 100 to 105 are expected in those areas. If confidence increases on warmer high temperatures and/or lesser storm coverage, a heat advisory could be needed for a large portion of the forecast area.
Subtropical ridging centered over Florida will steer TS Beryl north into the lower Mississippi valley enhancing a belt of mid level wind though the Ohio Valley and stagnating the overall pattern across the CONUS this week. Further west building ridging slowly shifts east from the Pacific coast inland into the rockies. With this dual high pressure a split jet across the CONUS with one stretching from the mid-Mississippi Valley into the northeast and another jet across the northern Canadian prairies, the northern plains will lie in very weak to negligible flow aloft through the coming week. Primary forcing is DCVA ahead of the upper low centered over north central South Dakota. Activity will generally track east/Northeast with the low and an end time of around midnight for most activity as the loss of afternoon heating takes full effect.
(This evening through Sunday night) Warmer temperatures are forecast across the area compared to yesterday. Tomorrow, a cold front will surge through the area from the north. Tomorrow, additional storms are expected to form in the eastern Panhandles ahead of the incoming cold front.
Then an upper level ridge will expand over the western US bringing hot temperatures for the remainder of the week.
Today: H5 ridging looks to hold firm across coastal portions of the Southeast U. Some erosion of its northwest flanks should occur later this afternoon as a broad cyclonic flow around the mean longwave trough centered over central U. A weak upper ridge will remain over the Southeast during the period, though weak disturbances will continuously move through. The weakening upper ridge will bring some slight relief from the heat, though mid to upper 70s dewpoints will still push heat indices above 100F each day. Meanwhile, a weak lee trough will remain across the Midlands and a robust sea breeze will occur each afternoon.
In light of the weakened ridge and a surface cold front stalling across the Piedmont, greater shower and thunderstorm coverage than the last few days is expected late this afternoon and evening as well as tomorrow afternoon, mainly across inland areas near and west of I-95. Also, temperatures will return closer to seasonal norms with highs expected to reach the lower 90s tomorrow after morning lows in the mid-upper 70s. Heat indices should still reach the low 100s, but stay below Heat Advisory criteria of 105F or greater for 2+ hours.
High pressure begins to build in on Sunday for warmer and drier conditions. - RCG The building upper level ridge begins to nudge eastward Sunday, though northwesterly flow will persist for one more day across the region.
This Evening - Sunday: Broad mid-level troughing persists from the northern Plains through the Great Lakes this afternoon. Heading into tonight and Sunday, modest moisture transport/warm advection ahead of the trough will spread across the area, with an attendant increased chance for showers/storms.
This is in response to a slight erosion to the western and northwestern portions of the H5 ridge that is currently anchored over the Southeast U. A few locations have exceeded 113 (Excessive Heat Warning criteria) along parts of the lower South Carolina coast, but these values have been fairly spotty and temporally limited so far. Warm and humid conditions will persist overnight with lows ranging from the mid 70s well inland to the lower 80s at the beaches and Downtown Charleston.
/26/ (Saturday through Sunday) High pressure is back across our Four-States with a 1017mb core in KN drifting toward MO before lunchtime. Light NW winds are edging our dew points down into the lower 70s, but the real drier air is having a tough time with lots of calm over E OK, so we are just not seeing much advection at this time. Overnight lows will be in the lower 70s on average and then highs tomorrow will be warmer with less cloudiness early, but more a chance for rainfall with coverage unfolding as our front lifts back northward Sunday.
(Tonight) By tonight, any remaining showers/storms should gradually come to an end across far northeast AL as the cold front continues moving off to the southeast.
(Through Sunday) Deep layer moisture remains over the area through the near term along with some ridging aloft. Held off on a head advisory at this point due to the uncertainty on shower and thunderstorm coverage and the subsequent effect of that on the highs.
Broad upper trough covers the Northern Plains into the Great Lakes Region.
1218 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024 (The rest of today) No changes to the forecast planned for today as broad surface ridging dominates the area through this evening. More sunshine today will allow temperatures to warm several degrees warmer than yesterday as highs are expected to top out in the lower to mid 90s for most locations.
With dew points in the upper 70s, heat indices are in the lower 100s. From synopsis, light to gentle east to southeast breezes will continue through tonight, as an axis of high pressure settles south of the Florida Keys coastal waters.
1122 AM MDT Sat Jul 6 2024 - With high pressure in control, dry, warm, sunny, and breezy conditions will occur for the weekend. Warm and dry conditions remain the rule as high pressure off to our west remains in control. We'll see a few shallow clouds over the higher terrain this afternoon and that will be about it. Again, look for a few clouds over the higher terrain, similar to today.
Overnight lows will be mostly in the lower 70s, with a few mid 70s possible in the Big Country. A strong upper level ridge will be over the west coast, and an upper level trough will be centered over mainly the northern and central Plains. With mostly sunny skies and 850mb thermal ridge expanding east into our area, temperatures will be hotter on Sunday.
A dry Sunday is expected as surface ridging will be working through the area. - Small chances for showers Sunday night Small chance for rain showers and isolated thunderstorms exist Sunday night ahead of our next weak trough of low pressure. Instability is on the low side and the precipitation will likely be affected by the diurnal minimum. - A very summer-like week ahead with warmth and thunderstorm chances A broad, slow moving 500 mb trough will be over the western Great Lakes region to start the work week.
- Latest models indicated that the break in monsoon activity will persist through the week ahead, though some moisture spreads into the area from the edges of the high centered over the West later in the week. The weather pattern features a ridge of high pressure over the West Coast and a long wave trough over the center of the U. On Sunday, a short wave mid-level trough moving southeastward across the northern Rockies and northern High Plains brushes Colorado's northern and central Continental Divide mountains bringing a chance for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms for those areas during the afternoon and evening. Valley locations receive the burnt of the heat with afternoon temperatures rising to 5-10 degrees warmer than typically seen in the first half of July.
The forecast for Sunday is for most locations to be a few degrees cooler than today, but it will still be hot.
First, expect to see a MCS develop over the high plains of Kansas/Colorado after midnight and then make a run from NW to SE across our area through Noon Sunday. Then, while minor waves move northeast from Mexico, an upper level trough will swing through the southern plains Sunday afternoon, providing the necessary (and stronger) lift for additional thunderstorms to develop.
(Now through Sunday) Todays coverage across the area seems to be a little less than the past couple as early clouds helped keep temperatures a few degrees cooler during the day resulting in less mixing and a weaker seabreeze circulation.
906 PM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024 A cold front drifts across through tonight. Humidity decreases Sunday in the wake of the front with high pressure briefly building overhead. A few showers/storms could move into the lower Chesapeake Bay waters late this evening.
Weak steering winds and the high PWATs will support a continued risk for locally heavy rainfall. Warm and humid conditions will persist overnight with lows ranging from the mid 70s well inland to the lower 80s at the beaches and Downtown Charleston.
High pressure begins to build in on Sunday for warmer and drier conditions. The highest confidence for impacts is at KHVR where light showers are possible through 07/02Z. - RCG The building upper level ridge begins to nudge eastward Sunday, though northwesterly flow will persist for one more day across the region.
Upper trough sets up across the middle of the U. , with the southeastern States still on the western edge of the Atlantic Ridge aloft.
617 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024 (This evening through Sunday night) Warmer temperatures are forecast across the area compared to yesterday. Tomorrow, a cold front will surge through the area from the north. Tomorrow, additional storms are expected to form in the eastern Panhandles ahead of the incoming cold front.
Despite the high surface dew points, afternoon thunderstorm coverage remained remarkably limited, confined mostly to right along the sea breeze boundary pinned closed to the west coast, west of Interstate 75. Early evening water vapor satellite imagery is showing an upper level low spinning over the Atlantic between the Bahamas and Bermuda, wrapping some dry air aloft into the Florida Peninsula.
553 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024 (Tonight) By tonight, any remaining showers/storms should gradually come to an end across far northeast AL as the cold front continues moving off to the southeast.
Warm and humid conditions will persist overnight with lows ranging from the mid 70s well inland to the lower 80s at the beaches and Downtown Charleston.
What little clouds we had this afternoon have dissipated this evening giving way to clear skies across the high country.
An upper level trough is over most of the central part of the country with an upper ridge over the West Coast.
Highs in the lower to mid 90s with lows in the mid 70s.
Warm and humid conditions will persist this morning with lows ranging from the mid 70s well inland to the lower 80s at the beaches and Downtown Charleston. Another round of showers and thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon with high temperatures in the low 90s.
Water vapor imagery shows numerous such disturbances littering the northern and central Plains, Upper Midwest, and into southern Canada, within a broad long wave trough.
After the dry cold front yesterday, temperatures will be slightly cooler.
(Today) As a cold front begins to lift northward into the TN Valley, low chances (20% or less) of showers/storms are forecast this afternoon into the evening with confidence remaining higher primarily south of the Tennessee River. Mostly cloudy skies are forecast throughout the day as high temperatures climb into the low to mid 90s.
A cold front moving into northeast Nebraska will likely bring an uptick in convection this afternoon and evening.
120 AM MDT Sun Jul 7 2024 Cyclonic NW flow remains over the region, w/ strong ridge along the Pacific coast.
Even with upper 60 dewpoints, higher LCLs should limit overall tornado risk, but cannot rule one out across western/northwestern Oklahoma near the low level boundaries this afternoon.
1242 AM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024 (This evening through Sunday night) Warmer temperatures are forecast across the area compared to yesterday. Tomorrow, a cold front will surge through the area from the north. Tomorrow, additional storms are expected to form in the eastern Panhandles ahead of the incoming cold front.
Discussion: In the upper levels, a trough is deepening over the Great Plains and a weak ridge is over the Northeast. At the surface, high pressure is centered over the Ohio Valley drifting into the Northeast tonight. Highs will be in the lower to mid 90s.
Relict island cloud lines activated around midnight along parts of the Upper Keys and just north of the Lower Keys, but that activity was pushed WNW into the Bay and Gulf waters by developing weak ESE low level flow, and radars currently detect only isolated showers dotting the region. Surface analysis depicts a weak pressure gradient across our area, between high pressure over the western Atlantic, a tropical wave over the western Caribbean Sea, and Tropical Storm Beryl over the western Gulf of Mexico. Aloft, mid level ridging prevails over Florida, between Beryl to the west and a well-defined Tropical Upper Tropospheric Trough (TUTT) cell northeast of the Bahamas.
244 AM MDT Sun Jul 7 2024 Drier and warmer conditions develop today under a northwest flow aloft.
Evening analysis indicates the region caught between developing longwave trough across a large portion of the CONUS, while Tropical Storm Beryl is currently moving northwestward across the west-central Gulf of Mexico. Lows will be seasonable in the low-mid 70s. Given the high moisture content of the atmosphere along the Gulf Coast region (2.
High pressure at the surface and aloft remain over the area this morning with another afternoon of heat advisory conditions expected along with showers and storms developing along the W FL sea breeze during the afternoon and pushing inland through the evening. Afternoon highs today in the lower to mid 90s with heat indices in the 108-111 range for the Heat Advisory, however guidance suggests a slight moderation in temps early to mid week with highs in the lower 90s for most of the area, perhaps offering at least a short-lived break from the recent daily heat advisory conditions. High pressure to remain over the waters through the week with no headlines expected.
We're still under an impressively deep and expansive ridge that won't budge for the next several days.
High pressure builds in from the west tonight and Monday.
A cold front moving into northeast Nebraska will likely bring an uptick in convection this afternoon and evening. Precipitation chances shift off to our southeast Monday morning, as a high pressure system builds over the southwestern CONUS.