Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1037 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024 - Warmer Sunday with afternoon-evening shower/storm chances (30- 50%). - Cooler Monday with rain chances lingering (south of I-90-20-60% increasing toward DBQ).
Additional showers and storms may develop through the remainder of the afternoon and evening, with the highest PoPs concentrated across the northwestern half of the area.
An occluded upper level low over eastern Canada will maintain northwesterly flow aloft for Minnesota with a broad and weak trough over the central CONUS will bring a slim chance for a few showers and thunderstorms this afternoon, with southern Minnesota to western Wisconsin the favored targets for now.
(Today through Monday afternoon) An upper level low near the Four Corners region will move east into the central Great Plains today. The low will drag an upper trough across West Texas pushing drier air into the western Permian Basin.
129 AM EDT Sun May 12 2024 A dry cold front will move offshore tonight, keeping the region cool and dry through Monday.
1157 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024 (The rest of tonight) High cloudiness will continue to stream overhead tonight across the region, downstream of an approaching mid level trough. Overnight lows will stay rather mild, mostly in the lower 60s, thanks to the increasing cloud cover.
An isolated shower may be found along an advancing cold front during the early overnight hours, although for the most part mainly dry conditions are expected tonight. UPDATE A line of isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms has entered northwestern and north central ND along a cold frontal boundary. Right now just some high clouds moving through, with temperatures well into the 70s and touching the lower 80s. An advancing cold front will bring some increased cloud cover tonight, mainly in the mid and upper levels.
(Today through Monday) Dry conditions will continue through early overnight hours tonight due to continued building of ridging influences surface and aloft. Afternoon high temperatures today will be around or slightly warmer than seasonal normal values ranging upper 70s to lower 80s, mid 70s Cumberland Plateau Region. With expected cloud coverage and rainfall, highs will drop down into the lower 70s, upper 60s to around 70 for locations just west of and across Cumberland Plateau Region.
As a low exits into Colorado, high pressure will build over the Great Basin today, bringing a continued warming trend and drier conditions than the past few days.
For those hoping to view the Aurora your best bet is to either head inland or into the higher terrain above the marine inversion. The large-scale picture features weak troughing aloft over the West Coast with downstream ridging over the Desert Southwest region. Temperatures tonight will be mostly in the upper 40s to lower 50s, with readings a bit warmer in the higher terrain inland.
1207 AM EDT Sun May 12 2024 High pressure remains across the region tonight into Sunday, then exits across the Maritimes Monday.
236 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024 - Another dry day today with highs reaching into the low 80s.
(Today and tonight) Short range models indicate scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms developing towards sunrise, as an upper low over Colorado moves east into Kansas this evening, bringing lift to the region.
Today, weak upper level ridging is building into the area in response to a upper level trough moving from the Great Basin to the Four corners region. Tonight into Sunday the upper level trough, in the form a closed low with move into the western Plains. Despite the increased cloud cover and showers, low amplitude upper level ridging and WAA will keep highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Sunday night into Monday, this closed low system will progress slowly across Kansas increasing shower and thunderstorms probabilities and coverage. This will make for a cooler Monday with highs in the mid 60s to lower 70s. Monday night the closed upper low will move directly over the forecast area continuing shower and isolated thunderstorm chances.
1116 PM EDT Sat May 11 2024 Scattered rain showers likely through tonight with passage of a cold front. KEY MESSAGES: - Scattered showers remain overnight ------------------------------------------------------------------- The thunderstorm and severe weather potential has ended with the passage of a cold front. An upper low across southern Ontario and the Lower Great Lakes region will drop southeastward overnight. Latest trends lift the warm front and upper wave north of the region, but will maintain low probability chances in northwest PA in case those trends change.
1149 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024 - Warmer this weekend with highs in the 80s on Sunday. Conditions stay dry and warmer through the weekend. We're in northwest flow aloft as an upper level trof moves through the Ohio Valley and towards the northeast. Our next system is an upper low and troughing that moves into the Plains by tomorrow night. Thunderstorm chances come back by Monday afternoon as the upper low/trof move toward the Midwest.
Today Warm and breezy today as low pressure tracks across Lake Superior. Steady SW winds, gusting near 25 mph, will advect much warmer air into the region with highs reaching the low to mid 80s. A weak cold front dropping in from the NW tonight may lead to slightly higher coverage of rain (30-50%), mainly across northwest and western counties. Monday An upper low on the northern periphery of the subtropical jet is forecast to slowly track from the Southern Rockies to the Lower to Mid Mississippi Valley early in the week. However, a slower arrival of the system should allow temps to reach into the 70s across the east, with cooler 60s in the west. Dewpoints will continue to trend upward from the weekend, reaching the lower 60s by Monday afternoon which will contribute to 1000-1500 J/kg of SBCAPE.
259 AM EDT Sun May 12 2024 High pressure provides dry weather into the start of the new work week amid a warming trend.
(Today) An upper low over the four corners region was apparent via water vapor imagery this morning. Afternoon highs will be cooler than yesterday given clouds & increasing precip.
225 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024 - Warm today! Highs could top out in the mid 80s in warmer valley locations. * TODAY/SUNDAY: very warm today, cooler (seasonable) Monday. Thus, GFS and NAM overshooting sfc Td (GFS into the low 60s!) and SBCAPEs are overdone. Deep mixing upwards of 700 mb will work to bring that warmer air to the sfc. It will cool back to the early May normals Monday with the passage of the cold front.
Regarding showers/storms this afternoon-evening: A mid level wave moving to the north this evening/tonight will push a cold front into the region, and forcing will help lead to widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms through the evening mainly in northwest MN (some signal farther west in CAMs). For Sunday, the post frontal air mass should bring lower Tds in (along with cooler temps) but adjusting for biases, RH values are likely to once again drop to the 20-25% range. Winds continue to turn north overnight with increasing winds by mid morning and gusts in the low to mid 20s by the afternoon.
255 AM EDT Sun May 12 2024 High pressure will move into the area today with lingering showers ending this morning and sunshine increasing this afternoon. Southerly flow will bring dry and much warmer conditions on Monday with temperatures warming about 10 degrees above normal.
25/Owen Previous short-term discussion: (This evening through Sunday) High pressure will move across the southern states today and tonight with prevailing northerly flow bringing cool and dry air to the state. By Sunday morning, the high will be weakening and moving east of the area with flow returning to out of the south and south west. Moisture and warmer air will will return to the state with high clouds increasing through late Sunday. Highs on Sunday are expected to be near normal and a couple of degrees warmer than today in the low 80s.
As high pressure moves east, we will slowly begin to recover a moist airmass with steady warm advection. Ridging aloft and high pressure at the surface will slide east of the region Sunday night into Monday.
(Today and tonight) Active weather will continue for today as an upper low tracks to our northwest across the Rockies. Precipitation may linger as long as into Monday morning over the Childress area south of the aforementioned upper low. With a drier, southerly flow developing west of the dryline in the afternoon, high temperatures west of I-27 will be significantly warmer than yesterday, reaching the low-to-mid 80s. Cooler temperatures will continue off the Caprock where the southeasterly flow persists.
1104 PM MDT Sat May 11 2024 - Trending warmer through Monday, but remaining unsettled with daily chances for showers and storms.
(Today through Monday) Upper ridging is beginning to set up over the eastern gulf and western Atlantic this morning. The upper trough out west is now starting to become oriented N-S as the upper ridge builds into the NW CONUS. The upper trough becomes progressive as this short wave exits the base of its trough Monday. The instability is not in place yet but will be as the synoptic warm front pulls through the area later today providing deep moisture and a strong ThetaE gradient that should stall from Mobile to the NW. But the messy conditions today through Monday before the main system moves in will also need to be watched as one or two storms could become rogue along and after the warm front moves through today.
(Today through Monday) A weakening cold front has moved into South Florida on this Mother's Day morning. While lacking much support to mean much in terms of cooler temperatures or wetting rainfall, the front could bring some increase cloud cover initially to start the morning.
1109 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024 - Sunday will end the weekend dry and warm with temperatures climbing into the low 80s for much of the area.
115 AM EDT Sun May 12 2024 Scattered rain showers likely through tonight with passage of a cold front. KEY MESSAGES: - Scattered showers remain overnight ------------------------------------------------------------------- The thunderstorm and severe weather potential has ended with the passage of a cold front. An upper low across southern Ontario and the Lower Great Lakes region will drop southeastward overnight. Latest trends lift the warm front and upper wave north of the region, but will maintain low probability chances in northwest PA in case those trends change.
622 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024 A mostly dry and mild day is on tap for the Mid-South with highs in the lower 80s.
559 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024 - Another dry day today with highs reaching into the low 80s.
A mostly dry and mild day is on tap for the Mid-South with highs in the lower 80s.
High temperatures today will reach into the mid to upper 90s, except for the low to mid 80s at the beaches. Warmer temperatures combined with a slight increase in humidity will allow heat index values this afternoon to reach the triple digits. In addition, the much warmer temperatures and a slight increase in humidity will allow heat index values to climb to between 105 to 110 degrees, especially along and east of the I- 69C/US 281 corridor, Monday afternoon.
High pressure overhead will keep conditions dry and pleasant for another day as temperatures continue to warm. Daytime highs will reach into the mid to upper-70s in our low elevations, 60s in the highlands, and 50s in the mountains. QPF amounts continue to look modest, with just a few hundredths forecast across the low elevations, up to one tenth in the mid-elevations, and 0. 20" in the highest terrain of the eastern mountains. Additionally, the cold front will bring widespread breezy surface winds during the afternoon, ranging 20 to 30 mph with gusts 30 to 40 mph.
Ridging is expected to redevelop by mid-week and will support an upward trend in temperatures back into the upper 70s. The upper level ridge axis now sits southeast of the CWA through southern Oregon and will continue to move southeast into the Great Basin through today. Stratus may try to advance farther east into the Willamette Valley around dawn but will struggle due to warmer temperatures. Temperatures will be 8-10 degrees cooler across the Willamette Valley, peaking within a degree or two of 80. Temperatures along the coast will be 3-5 degrees cooler, peaking in the low to mid 60s after starting the day under stratus which should dissipate by noon. Northwest flow aloft and onshore at the surface along with marine stratus in the morning will keep temperatures Monday afternoon much cooler.
- Warmer than normal temperatures continue, particularly on Monday.
We will see another day of breeziness across the eastern portions of the forecast area as the southern trough axis continues to track east today.
724 AM EDT Sun May 12 2024 High pressure will move into the area today with lingering showers ending this morning and sunshine increasing this afternoon. Southerly flow will bring dry and much warmer conditions on Monday with temperatures warming about 10 degrees above normal.
905 AM EDT Sun May 12 2024 High pressure builds today with dry weather through Monday.
650 AM EDT Sun May 12 2024 High pressure builds today with dry weather through Monday.
645 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024 (Today through Monday) Dry conditions will continue through early overnight hours tonight due to continued building of ridging influences surface and aloft. Afternoon high temperatures today will be around or slightly warmer than seasonal normal values ranging upper 70s to lower 80s, mid 70s Cumberland Plateau Region.
This will allow winds to briefly slacken and become variable before clocking around to the east and southeast overnight as the high moves into the western Atlantic.
A weak upper level trough may allow for isolated showers or a thunderstorm across western Humboldt county this afternoon and evening. Other locations will see quiet weather conditions as high pressure remains across the region.
655 AM EDT Sun May 12 2024 High pressure provides dry weather into the start of the new work week amid a warming trend.
607 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024 - Warm today! Highs could top out in the mid 80s in warmer valley locations. * TODAY/SUNDAY: very warm today, cooler (seasonable) Monday. Thus, GFS and NAM overshooting sfc Td (GFS into the low 60s!) and SBCAPEs are overdone. Deep mixing upwards of 700 mb will work to bring that warmer air to the sfc. It will cool back to the early May normals Monday with the passage of the cold front.
619 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024 (Today and tonight) Short range models indicate scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms developing towards sunrise, as an upper low over Colorado moves east into Kansas this evening, bringing lift to the region.
An associated cold front will drop into the area this morning/afternoon causing winds to shift around the east and northeast. Convection is expected to diminish through the evening hours with ridging building into the region.
947 AM EDT Sun May 12 2024 High pressure remains across the region today, then exits across the Maritimes Monday.
349 AM MDT Sun May 12 2024 - Trending warmer through Monday, but remaining unsettled with daily chances for showers and storms.
High pressure remains over the region today which will result in another warm and dry day.
- Drier/warmer Monday, with scattered mountain showers/storms and more isolated coverage for lower elevations.
719 AM EDT Sun May 12 2024 (Today through Monday) A weakening cold front has moved into South Florida on this Mother's Day morning. While lacking much support to mean much in terms of cooler temperatures or wetting rainfall, the front could bring some increase cloud cover initially to start the morning.
1032 AM EDT Sun May 12 2024 High pressure over the area will move off to the east tonight and Monday.
540 AM EDT Sun May 12 2024 High pressure remains across the region today, then exits across the Maritimes Monday.
647 AM EDT Sun May 12 2024 High pressure over the area will move off to the east tonight and Monday.
A weak cold front in northwest flow will continue to push across the CWA today. This will bring a near breezy northerly wind and slightly cooler, yet still above normal, temperatures in the 70s. A light easterly flow looks to form at the surface, with ridging aloft. Lingering cool air behind the mentioned front could bring some cooler overnight lows in the mid 30s to mid 40s. Monday, ridging aloft flattens with zonal flow across the area. As this low becomes more developed chances for showers and thunderstorms should return to these areas.
620 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024 (Today and tonight) Active weather will continue for today as an upper low tracks to our northwest across the Rockies. Precipitation may linger as long as into Monday morning over the Childress area south of the aforementioned upper low. With a drier, southerly flow developing west of the dryline in the afternoon, high temperatures west of I-27 will be significantly warmer than yesterday, reaching the low-to-mid 80s. Cooler temperatures will continue off the Caprock where the southeasterly flow persists.
621 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024 (Today through Monday afternoon) An upper level low near the Four Corners region will move east into the central Great Plains today. The low will drag an upper trough across West Texas pushing drier air into the western Permian Basin.
A cooling trend is underway as the previous ridge is pushed east by an upper level trough.
152 PM EDT Sun May 12 2024 High pressure will move into the area today with sunshine increasing this afternoon. Southerly flow will bring dry and much warmer conditions on Monday as temperatures warm about 10 degrees above normal.
The trough axis and weak cold front will cross our area Monday afternoon. Temperatures will be a few degrees cooler, but still nearly 10 degrees above normal.
Cooler temperatures are expected Monday night as somewhat drier air moves in behind a weak boundary that approaches the coast.
Presently, upper low pressure is located over northern Ontario with a ridge over the Rockies. This had brought Canadian wildfire smoke into the area, while a cold frontal boundary drug it to the surface early this morning.
148 PM EDT Sun May 12 2024 High pressure over the area will move off to the east tonight and Monday.
202 PM EDT Sun May 12 2024 High pressure provides dry weather into the start of the new work week amid a warming trend.
254 PM MDT Sun May 12 2024 - Trending warmer through Monday, but remaining unsettled with daily chances for showers and storms through mid-week.
12z RAOB at KSGF still showing a considerable layer of dry air all the way into the mid levels and expectation remains that this dry air will hold any notable precip chances at bay until stronger forcing associated with upper low spreads over eastern OK later this afternoon, and more so this evening.
338 PM EDT Sun May 12 2024 Upper level low pressure pushes east of the region this evening. Warmer temperatures are expected Monday, however a warm front will push through the area and kick off scattered showers and afternoon thunderstorms.
1226 PM EDT Sun May 12 2024 High pressure remains across the region today, then exits across the Maritimes Monday.
1222 PM CDT Sun May 12 2024 (Today and tonight) Active weather will continue for today as an upper low tracks to our northwest across the Rockies. Precipitation may linger as long as into Monday morning over the Childress area south of the aforementioned upper low. With a drier, southerly flow developing west of the dryline in the afternoon, high temperatures west of I-27 will be significantly warmer than yesterday, reaching the low-to-mid 80s. Cooler temperatures will continue off the Caprock where the southeasterly flow persists.
148 PM EDT Sun May 12 2024 High pressure bringing dry weather to the region through Monday afternoon will move off the atlantic coast by Monday evening allowing moisture to return in advance of a complex storm system exiting the central plains.
(Monday night through next Sunday) Expect mainly a dry and warmer forecast for early this week as 500 MB heights increase and our area is in the surface warm sector.
108 PM EDT Sun May 12 2024 High pressure will move into the area today with lingering showers ending this morning and sunshine increasing this afternoon. Southerly flow will bring dry and much warmer conditions on Monday with temperatures warming about 10 degrees above normal.
1156 AM EDT Sun May 12 2024 High pressure provides dry weather into the start of the new work week amid a warming trend.
106 PM EDT Sun May 12 2024 High pressure builds today with dry weather through Monday.
(Rest of today through Monday) High pressure is in place over the region and that is going to bring great weather for this Mother's Day. Highs this afternoon are on track for most of the area to make it to around 80 but it will stay a bit cooler over the Plateau.
(The rest of this afternoon through tonight) Upper low moving east of the Four Corners Region this afternoon with subtropical jet lifting northeast through Texas into Oklahoma. (Monday through Sunday) As low lifts into Kansas late tonight into Monday, additional showers/thunderstorms will develop ahead of cold front, which is forecast to move into northeast Oklahoma around mid day. Scattered showers with a few embedded thunderstorms will remain possible Monday night as main upper level trough axis swings through overnight.
215 PM EDT Sun May 12 2024 A weakening area of low pressure will slowly move across our region this afternoon, resulting in some showers. High pressure will then move across the area bringing dry weather during the first half of the night.
305 PM EDT Sun May 12 2024 Upper level troughing will exit Pennsylvania tonight, with fair weather expected for most of tonight and Monday.
Low elevation daytime highs will be in the low to mid 90s through the week. Not much in the way of major weather impacts this week across the region, as we are under the influence of a weak upper level trough. This will begin to give way to ridging tomorrow, building heights and warming things up by a few degrees.
After a quiet night with lows near normal our attention turn to the north as an upper trough slides across the Plains.
The next line of scattered storms of interest is currently up in southeast MN and this is associated with the low level cold front (surface to 850mb). Winds will switch to northeast near the lakeshore by late morning in Sheboygan and spread down toward Kenosha through the mid afternoon as a cold front races down the lake faster than inland areas. Lower clouds and much cooler temperatures, along with increasing northeast winds, will help lower clouds develop as the day goes on Monday late afternoon and night.
The first few will not pose a huge threat as there is not much instability and the warm front is offshore the Gulf. Strong instability and deep shear will be supportive of its maintenance, while a surface warm front, roughly extending parallel to the HWY 49 corridor, will serve as a focus for a potentially stronger wind swath.
A brief ridge of high pressure will build over the region behind an upper low pulling away across the Four Corners.
158 PM EDT Sun May 12 2024 High pressure provides dry weather into the start of the new work week amid a warming trend.
DDV Issued 357 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024 Today through Monday: Light sly winds will develop early this morning becoming breezy swly winds this afternoon as a wave of low pressure moves across nrn WI. Low level warm advection will bring the thermal ridge into srn WI late in the day, and 925 mb temps will warm into the lower 20s Celsius. This will yield highs in the lower 80s for most locations. Just small chances (20-30 percent) for storms for the afternoon as the cold front remains well to the north, but the convective temp could be reached. The wave of low pressure will weaken tnt as it moves east, thereby slowing the arrival of the cold front until sunrise Mon for the nrn CWA.
1207 PM CDT Sun May 12 2024 (Today through Monday afternoon) An upper level low near the Four Corners region will move east into the central Great Plains today. The low will drag an upper trough across West Texas pushing drier air into the western Permian Basin.