Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Water vapor imagery highlights a long wave trough deep into Mexico. A broad belt of southwesterlies are noted spreading across the Gulf of Mexico and demarcate the northern flank of the subtropical ridge centered over the Western Caribbean. The forecast for the next few days will feature a recovery to above normal temperatures and increased humidity as the Eastern Seaboard high pressure system pinches off a small anticylonic node into the Bahamas. Breezes will shift to the southeast in response to the high. Meanwhile, a cold front will move slowly southeast into the Gulf of Mexico.
Highs on Tuesday will top out in the lower 60s in the Big Country and the upper 60s to lower 70s across the Concho Valley.
300 PM EDT Mon Mar 25 2024 (This afternoon through Tuesday) Squeezed ridge along the eastern seaboard will succumb to the advancing large-scale trough over the Plains as everything shifts eastward into Tuesday. Locations along the north Georgia ridgeline could see isolated 40+ mph gusts overnight.
252 PM EDT Mon Mar 25 2024 Cold high pressure will extend southward through the region through Tuesday.
355 PM EDT Mon Mar 25 2024 Dry high pressure continues with more seasonable temperatures for Tuesday.
(Rest of today through Tuesday) Mostly dry and pleasant weather continues through the short term as mid-level ridging builds over the Gulf of Mexico and the Deep South. Breezy easterly flow will gradually veer southeasterly tonight into Tuesday bringing in slightly warmer temperatures.
(This evening through Tuesday) The upper closed low over the eastern Oklahoma Panhandle and southwestern Kansas will eject northeastward tonight with westerly flow aloft. Cold Canadian air will linger over the area with below freezing temperatures across much of the far southern Texas Panhandle, South Plains and Rolling Plains.
140 PM EDT Mon Mar 25 2024 Cool and dry high pressure will build in through early this week with a return to more seasonable temperatures by Tuesday.
No wind advisory is planned at this time due to uncertain duration and the chance that the highest gusts are realized in the afternoon from the marginal risk of severe storms. Strong wind from the low-level jet will mix down near or just prior to dawn as rain along the occluded front comes to an end. Bulk shear will be incredibly potent (perhaps too strong?) while instability per the HREF will be near 500 j/kg with dew points in the low-50s.
1248 PM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024 (Today and tonight) Early this morning, the Pacific-based cold front that brought rain and thunderstorms was sprawled from the Big Country down to the Edwards Plateau. The cold front should push eastward as the parent low moves out to the Missouri Valley later today. This should allow skies to clear out by mid-morning and temperatures to climb to the low to mid 70s this afternoon. The upper-level trough driving this entire system should also deepen and push a second, continental-based, cold front into Texas this afternoon and evening. Weak high-pressure at the surface should build in behind the front and allow temperatures to fall to the 30s overnight. Some rural locations in the northern Big Country could drop to near freezing by sunrise tomorrow morning.
1229 PM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024 - Snow totals continue to come down, with additional amounts today/tonight around 6 inches across the east, mainly in the higher terrain of the Sisseton hills region. Snow amounts continue to come down, and now it could be a struggle to get even 6 inches across the east, unless you're in the higher terrain of the Sisseton Hills.
TFJ Upper trough will be over central states early this week, pulling a cold Canadian high pressure into the northern plains. As temperatures clear out with this high, temperatures will be dropping to near zero across much of the cwa tonight, with only slightly warmer readings for Tuesday night. With the extra daylight provided by the early spring, expect some melting of the recent snow, mainly on or near paved surfaces, even with air temperatures remaining below the freezing mark. After midweek temperatures will begin to rise as an upper ridge moves across the region.
- The Winter Weather Advisory has been expanded to include a larger portion of eastern Nebraska and a small part of west- central Iowa for a mixture of snow and freezing rain overnight into Tuesday morning.
255 PM EDT Mon Mar 25 2024 Sunny and seasonable conditions continue into this afternoon under high pressure.
Only light (1-2 inch) accumulations expected over mainly the higher peaks - Warming and drying trend through late week with increasing winds.
Large upper trough with several embedded waves over the central CONUS will continue to bring winter impacts to the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest through the rest of today into Tuesday. Reported icy roadways from accumulating snow and refreezing onto roadways in the southern Valley into west-central Minnesota are further exacerbating impacts, and lends confidence in continuing the Winter Storm Warning here. This will be driven by air temperatures remaining below freezing while pavement temperatures approach or exceed the freezing mark, along with gusty winds throughout the day.
215 PM EDT Mon Mar 25 2024 Cold high pressure will extend southward through the region through Tuesday.
Water vapor imagery shows the low pressure system undergoing rapid occlusion and a weakening trend which can also be noted but the thinning and warming cloud tops. These calm winds, fresh snowpack and party to mostly cloudy skies may allow for some radiational cooling to occur which will bring temperatures down into the lower teens.
Behind the line, winds will continue to shift to the northwest and later to the north as a surface cold front pushes into the area overnight and into the early hours of tomorrow. This will result in clearing skies and a surge of drier and cooler air, bringing overnight lows tonight into the 40s to mid 50s inland and the upper 50s along the immediate coast.
1246 PM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024 - Sharp cold front slowly pushes through area today.
Highs today will top out in the low 70s, resulting in a pleasant early spring afternoon. This will be short-lived however as a strong cold front pushes in from the northwest into the region. Lows overnight will range in the mid to upper 30s across North Texas and the lower 40s across Central Texas.
This moisture feed is being drawn into the large low pressure system which is occluding over western Iowa. There is shallow convection in southwest Iowa, in the vicinity of the surface and upper low, which appear to represent a mini supercell threat there.
1238 PM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024 (Today and tonight) As of 1:30 am a surface cold front has entered the far northwestern Texas Panhandle and is quickly moving south. This front will keep temperatures much cooler today with high temperatures only warming to near 40 across the southwestern Texas Panhandle to the lower 60s across the Rolling Plains where the front will be slower to move through.
152 PM EDT Mon Mar 25 2024 The region will remain under the influence of high pressure centered to the east through the daylight hours today. Additional showers and thunderstorms will occur Tuesday into Tuesday night until a cold front passes. High pressure will then offer dry weather and a warming trend through the end of the week. A large mid and upper level trof to dominate much of the central and western CONUS Tuesday. The highest gusts to occur over West Central Ohio. Behind the cold front, high pressure begins to nose in from the west, providing westerly flow.
Lingering low level moisture from yesterday's trough has led to patchy drizzle/light rain this morning. (Today and tonight) A northwest flow pattern will prevail aloft as high pressure advances towards the area from the northeast Pacific.
1213 PM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024 (Today and tonight) Regional surface observations show a powerful cyclone across the central Plains, with surface pressures around 985 mb across southwest Kansas. Southeast Oklahoma, where a weak prefrontal trough will set up by early afternoon, will push toward 70 before the Arctic front arrives, while daytime temperatures will struggle to reach 40 across northwest Oklahoma. First, in northwest Oklahoma, wraparound moisture from the upper-level trough will pivot through this afternoon. Colder air will continue to filter in tonight with a hard freeze expected for much of northern and western Oklahoma and the freezing line potentially approaching I-44.
This low and the ongoing low across nrn IA/srn MN will form a double barrel low.
The best snow accumulations will be in the higher terrain. Any snow accumulations in the valleys will primarily melt on the roadways, but icy conditions may develop on area bridges.
Cold northwesterly flow, along with the trailing edge of an upper-level trough.
Drier and warmer weather returns mid-week, however winter weather potentially makes a return over the weekend. Low pressure has shifted east, but troughing overhead persists. Tuesday will feature greater coverage in precipitation than today thanks to better forcing being available as the trough pushes east.
241 PM EDT Mon Mar 25 2024 Ridging remains in place through Tuesday keeping the region dry.
The cold front will continue to move to the southeast, which will result in a cold evening with wind chills ranging from the teens to 30s deg F. Continued cold air advection from breezy northwest winds behind the cold front will set the state for a widespread freeze tonight for most locations north of the Red River (the exception being southeast Oklahoma).
1233 PM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024 (Today through Tuesday) The most recent surface analysis from the Weather Prediction Center indicates a cold front bisecting the Lone Star State from north to south. Finally, elevated seas along the Lower Texas Coast, produced by the recent enhanced pressure gradient and the subsequent passage of the cold front, will lead to a High Risk of rip currents at the local beaches until around sunrise Tuesday.
Snow levels will run around 5000 ft during the afternoon hours so valley rain or mix will be most likely with snow in the higher terrain. Snow will be possible down to valley floors during the overnight/early AM time periods however with cooler temps. Mon appears drier as a SW-NE oriented upper ridge builds into the northern Great Basin.
339 PM EDT Mon Mar 25 2024 High pressure will continue to bring mostly clear and dry weather through tonight.
At the lower elevations, probabilities for an inch or more of snow were 30-40% over the NW zones.
Strong cold advection was occurring this morning as a cold front passed across western Kansas. Given the high winds expected and temperatures in the 20s, this snow will accumulate, even if it is late March with a higher sun angle.
717 PM EDT Mon Mar 25 2024 Dry high pressure continues with more seasonable temperatures for Tuesday.
Additional showers and storms will occur during the late afternoon and evening as a cold front crosses the area. High pressure will then build into the area for mid to late week. Decreased temperatures from the blend to go with several model solutions that indicate lows in the lower to upper 40s. Higher resolution guidance suggests that initial band of showers will lose some organization and focus towards daybreak but then redevelop across eastern counties mid morning as a subtle short wave and a slight resurgence of the low level jet occurs. A broken line of showers and storms is forecast to develop along a cold front as it moves into the area during the latter part of the afternoon into the evening.
(This evening through Tuesday) After a wet weekend and damp Monday morning, building high pressure overhead has led to a much drier Monday afternoon. Tonight through Tuesday: Relatively quiet weather as high pressure remains in control.
/NEW/ /Through Tuesday/ Isolated convective development has occurred along a strong cold front which is sweeping through North Texas early this evening. Otherwise, gusty northwest winds are accompanying the cold front through the forecast area, but will begin decreasing to around 10 mph or less overnight after the front shifts well to the south of North Texas. Much cooler air will be in place to begin tomorrow morning with readings in the 30s and lower 40s. Some frost is possible across North Texas, and a few outlying locations could even dip to near freezing. Highs for tomorrow afternoon will be much cooler, right around 60 degrees. /Issued 253 PM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024/ /Tuesday Night Onward/ By midweek, upper level troughing will be passing over the Central Plains in response to ridging over the western CONUS.
628 PM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024 (This evening through Tuesday) The upper closed low over the eastern Oklahoma Panhandle and southwestern Kansas will eject northeastward tonight with westerly flow aloft. Cold Canadian air will linger over the area with below freezing temperatures across much of the far southern Texas Panhandle, South Plains and Rolling Plains.
(The rest of tonight) The cold front has moved into NW AR where a narrow line of convection has recently developed. Persistent winds and expanding mid cloud will somewhat limit the temp fall, however overnight temps in the lower to mid 30s are expected for much of the local region. (Tomorrow through Monday) The mid and upper level trof axises are progged to push east of the CWA Tuesday afternoon/evening.
(This afternoon through Tuesday) Squeezed ridge along the eastern seaboard will succumb to the advancing large-scale trough over the Plains as everything shifts eastward into Tuesday. Locations along the north Georgia ridgeline could see isolated 40+ mph gusts overnight.
Cooler temperatures, chances for showers and mountain snow, and increased winds would likely accompany this system. Bit of a breeze to make the much cooler than normal temperatures feel that much cooler.
705 PM EDT Mon Mar 25 2024 (Rest of today through Tuesday) Mostly dry and pleasant weather continues through the short term as mid-level ridging builds over the Gulf of Mexico and the Deep South. Breezy easterly flow will gradually veer southeasterly tonight into Tuesday bringing in slightly warmer temperatures.
Currently - High pressure centered off the Carolina/Georgia along with troughing in the Gulf of Mexico are responsible for moderate to fresh east to southeasterly breezes along the island chain this evening. This will hamper any cooling and overnight lows will struggle to reach the lower 70s. High pressure to our north will maintain fresh east to southeasterly breezes on Keys waters through the overnight period.
These winds should weaken some overnight though still remain breezy into early Tuesday morning as the mid/upper level trof axis moves into the region. as the mid and upper low lifts from the Panhandles/Western Oklahoma up to the Kansas City area tonight. Limited moisture and a cold temperature profile associated with the mid/upper low could aid in a few snow flakes developing along the Kansas Oklahoma border. Cloud cover tonight should keep low temps above freezing in the 30s for most locations. (Tomorrow through Monday) The mid and upper level trof axises are progged to push east of the CWA Tuesday afternoon/evening.
1007 PM EDT Mon Mar 25 2024 Dry high pressure continues with more seasonable temperatures for Tuesday.
922 PM EDT Mon Mar 25 2024 Ridging remains in place through Tuesday keeping the region dry.
A strong midlevel cyclone was deepening over western Kansas. This process will continue through the afternoon, with the cyclone deepening to near 536 dm as it pivots toward Salina by 7 pm. Soil temperatures are well above freezing, in the 40s, but intense cold advection and strong north winds will continue as the wet snow falls through evening.
The dry conditions will be interrupted by the next low pressure system that is developing in the Pacific and will be moving southeast.
Another quiet overnight period is expected, though lows will be several degrees warmer than they were this morning. The rest of Tuesday will be breezy, warmer, and more humid. High pressure will remain over the waters through Tuesday, with periods of gusty southeast winds continuing.
A cold front roughly parallel to the Mississippi Valley will become orphaned later today as the parent low continues its northeast trek across the Great Lakes and into eastern Canada.
The rain continues to leave the area with the cold front, and most of the observations remain on course.
205 AM EDT Tue Mar 26 2024 (Rest of today through Tuesday) Mostly dry and pleasant weather continues through the short term as mid-level ridging builds over the Gulf of Mexico and the Deep South. Breezy easterly flow will gradually veer southeasterly tonight into Tuesday bringing in slightly warmer temperatures.
Localized snowfall has allowed for visibility to fall to 2SM at the lowest. Large upper trough with several embedded waves over the central CONUS will continue to bring winter impacts to the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest through the rest of today into Tuesday. Reported icy roadways from accumulating snow and refreezing onto roadways in the southern Valley into west-central Minnesota are further exacerbating impacts, and lends confidence in continuing the Winter Storm Warning here. This will be driven by air temperatures remaining below freezing while pavement temperatures approach or exceed the freezing mark, along with gusty winds throughout the day.
The low is progd to continue to deepen as it tracks toward the western UP. Coincident with this will be the trough/cold front moving east across Lake Michigan. Cooler air will move back into the cwa behind the front tonight.
(Rest of tonight) Showers and a few elevated thunderstorms will continue to spread northeastward across the TN Valley over the next couple of hours, within a rapidly strengthening warm/moist advection regime to the south/east of a mid-level trough lifting northeastward from the MO Valley.
Only a few clouds decorating the sky and slightly warmer temperatures across the Peninsula this morning. Meanwhile, tight pressure gradient between ridge of high pressure dominating over the area, and approaching trough will continue to support breezy east to southeasterly winds through mid day.
Water vapor imagery and 00z RAOB data shows a deep trough near the border region of KS/NE/MO. A cold front trails from the low along roughly the I-35 corridor into northwest Missouri. This will send the cold front through the area by mid morning through mid afternoon. By late week will see a warming trend ensue with highs back near to above normal and in the 50s and 60s, as upper level ridging builds in.
352 AM EDT Tue Mar 26 2024 Dry high pressure continues with more seasonable temperatures for today.
1223 AM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024 (This evening through Tuesday) The upper closed low over the eastern Oklahoma Panhandle and southwestern Kansas will eject northeastward tonight with westerly flow aloft. Cold Canadian air will linger over the area with below freezing temperatures across much of the far southern Texas Panhandle, South Plains and Rolling Plains.
Showers and isolated thunderstorms will move through northeast Mississippi this morning ahead of a cold front which will exit the Mid-South by this afternoon. Cooler and drier air will start to move into the region behind the front.
1221 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024 Upper-level ridge centered over Texas to maintain sufficient subsidence to allow for temperatures across the region to climb into the mid to upper 90s. The combination of temperatures and afternoon dewpoint values in the lower 70s, will drive heat index values to around 105 degrees today.
The convective environment appears to be slightly more conducive to thunderstorm development tomorrow as a trof moves across southern Canada and helps push a weak cold front into Nebraska during the afternoon.
Upper ridge remains in place with hot, windy, dry conditions today. Monday pattern looks similar, albeit slightly cooler and slightly less windy.
This monsoon pattern will continue through much of the week, with a more typical-monsoon flow (high pressure over the Four Corners) shaping up by mid- week.
1223 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024 (Today and tonight) An upper level ridge centered over Texas is our dominant weather feature. With some expansion of the 850mb thermal ridge into our area from the west, expect highs this afternoon to be a little hotter than yesterday. Temperatures will be warm with overnight lows in the lower to mid 70s in our southern and central counties, and mostly in the mid 70s across the Big Country.
1215 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024 (Today through Monday Night) The upper level ridge has become centered over Texas. An upper trough moving into the northeast U. and weakening of the northeast side of the high will allow a cold front to move into north Arkansas.
(This evening through Monday) High pressure will continue to slowly build across the region.
227 PM EDT Sun Jun 23 2024 * Cooler and less humid into tonight and Monday.
1207 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024 (Today through Monday) The upper level ridge centered over and north of the area will produce a mainly dry forecast through the short term, with the exception of far southern areas of the forecast area. A broad area of low pressure is located over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico and is expected to move northwest into Mexico later tonight. Beneath the ridge, the outer fringes of the tropical moisture associated with this system has made it into South Texas, and will move as far north as southern areas of our forecast area. Greater coverage of showers is expected farther south of the forecast area, where deeper tropical moisture resides and influences from the ridge are less.
An upper level trough will produce clouds, cooler temperatures, and a few showers across Western Washington today. The trough will weaken tonight and a ridge of high pressure aloft will begin to rebuild into the area Monday.
- Isolated thunderstorms expected tomorrow afternoon over the higher terrain and along the CO/NM border.
Monday will be dry and slightly cooler with dew points in the 60s by afternoon. Discussion: A trough is moving into the region from the Ohio Valley this afternoon. The surface cold front is currently (215 PM EDT) near SE Missouri/NE Arkansas. The best chance for strong showers and storms and the most coverage will be mid to late evening as the cold front moves into Middle Tennessee. The cold front will move through in the early morning hours. Monday will be dry with slightly cooler temps.
Monday Evening and Night: Conditional Severe Risk After one nice, sedate, temperate day with dewpoints in the lower 60s for Sunday, warm and muggy conditions return by Monday afternoon as southwesterly 850mb moisture advection resumes in earnest.
with northwest winds, areas of drizzle/light showers, and temperatures mostly in the lower and middle 60s. Complex area of low pressure continues to make its way eastward thru Lower Michigan early this morning. A stronger upper level trough axis will swing thru Northern Michigan this afternoon and evening. Pattern Synopsis and Forecast: Northwest will be overhead as a closed low exits the state and continues east Monday. A northern Rockies lee side trough will move straight east as zonal flow alfot over the northern CONUS carries it towards the northern Plains.
A trough moving over the region today will set up zonal (west to east) flow for tomorrow.
A trough currently swinging across the Northeast US is nudging a weak cold front southward into the Tennessee Valley.
Somewhat cooler temperatures in the interior today, continuing into the beginning of the work week with a slight cooldown midweek.
1251 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024 (Today through Monday) The H5 ridge over our region will continue to spread west with time as a weak trough begins to move south and east over the Ohio River Valley Today and into Monday.
221 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024 Global guidance shows the mid/upper level high drifting further west towards the Carolinas. With the high shifting westward, this will allow for a weak frontal boundary to sink into our forecast area heading into the overnight period.