Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
431 PM MST Fri Jan 26 2024 - Dense fog/freezing fog will return to the eastern parts of the area tonight. Some zones in the east will see wrap-around moisture from the exiting system interact with a nosing ridge axis. Going into the upcoming weekend, after morning fog dissipates in the east, a decent weekend awaits for all as an upper ridge builds slowly east off the Rockies, creating northerly flow aloft.
- Areas of flurries, drizzle, and freezing drizzle will persist tonight through Saturday night. While moisture remains limited, there should be enough forcing for ascent for another round of drizzle, freezing drizzle, and flurries advancing southeastward across northern Minnesota tonight and moving into northwest Wisconsin Saturday.
600 PM CST Fri Jan 26 2024 - Freezing drizzle and fog look to reform/stay overnight, especially in Minnesota.
531 PM CST Fri Jan 26 2024 (Tonight through Saturday night) Key Messages: - Patchy to areas of fog tonight - Cold front moving through the area overnight Patchy fog and drizzle has developed across portions of the Coastal Bend this afternoon leading to visibilities down to 1 mile or less at some locations. As a pre-frontal trough moves in over the next few hours, conditions are likely to improve with the visibilities lifting above 6 miles. However, latest model guidance indicates another round of patchy to areas of fog developing late tonight into early Saturday morning ahead of an approaching cold front. Saturday night will be much cooler with lows falling into the 40s areawide under clear to mostly clear skies and a light north to northwesterly wind.
A push of cooler air will also arrive behind the system with breezy north winds Saturday morning. /NEW/ /Saturday Night Onward/ By the latter half of the weekend the upper level trough responsible for today's rain chances will have moved east, placing North and Central Texas on the upstream periphery. Ridging will begin to build in behind the departing trough, allowing for a warming trend through the beginning of the week.
543 PM CST Fri Jan 26 2024 (This evening through Saturday) The current weather has an upper level low(per WV imagery) over the South Plains near Lubbock. A cold front will move south across the area tonight with winds a little gusty behind the front.
226 PM MST Fri Jan 26 2024 - Dense fog/freezing fog will return to the eastern parts of the area tonight. Some zones in the east will see wrap-around moisture from the exiting system interact with a nosing ridge axis. Going into the upcoming weekend, after morning fog dissipates in the east, a decent weekend awaits for all as an upper ridge builds slowly east off the Rockies, creating northerly flow aloft.
549 PM CST Fri Jan 26 2024 (This evening through Saturday night) 20z WV satellite shows an upper low over W TX just to our south with multiple perturbations rounding this feature. In the northwestern Panhandles, light snow is ongoing as temperatures there are just a bit above freezing and, given temperature profile seen in that 12z RAOB, no warm nose is present. This afternoon and evening, with the upper low still shifting eastward, expect additional showers. Tonight, primary focus is if our dense fog recurs with this being potentially impactful as temperatures fall to or below freezing. Saturday, widespread sunshine triumphantly returns in the wake of Friday's upper low.
As such, just a brief wording of freezing fog tonight near sunrise in the weather grids, but not enough to be Advisory worthy as of this package.
615 PM CST Fri Jan 26 2024 A low pressure system will track from the Texas Gulf coast into east Tennessee tonight through Saturday night bringing another round of rain and a few thunderstorms to the Mid-South.
226 PM PST Fri Jan 26 2024 Precipitation will increase across the area tonight into Saturday as a warm front moves across the region and then moisture moves in on southwesterly flow.
These showers will bring some snow to the higher terrain with a wintry mix in the valleys. Cold sub-surface temperatures will once again allow for any rain that falls tonight to potentially freezing up especially on sidewalks and parking lots. A ridge of high pressure builds over the Northern Rockies this weekend allowing for steady warming and rising snow levels.
423 PM MST Fri Jan 26 2024 - Warm up starts tomorrow for areas across the Plains with no snow, with highs reaching into the lower 50s. satellite imagery shows an upper low spinning over the Texas Panhandle this afternoon, with broad northerly flow across the Eastern Plains. the upper low over the Texas Panhandle will continue to move east into central Oklahoma overnight. the upper trough will move into the Missouri Valley, while high pressure builds in from the Intermountain West. For areas on the Plains, highs will reach into the lower 50s.
- Rain chances return late tonight into Saturday, with the highest chances (60-80%) and amounts (0. Current conditions and synoptic overview: While the visibilities have improved with the fog today, the low ceilings continue over the area. Water vapor imagery shows the next system has pushed into west Texas with southwest flow out ahead of the low into the forecast area. Lack of sunshine, despite being above freezing has kept our frost depth(noon reading) at 4 inches. Rain chances tonight - Saturday: Still some model differences in strength of the upper low, but overall solutions maintain the trend of keeping the higher qpf to our south with the northern edge of the precipitation bisecting our CWA.
- Warm up starts tomorrow for areas across the Plains with no snow, with highs reaching into the lower 50s. satellite imagery shows an upper low spinning over the Texas Panhandle this afternoon, with broad northerly flow across the Eastern Plains. the upper low over the Texas Panhandle will continue to move east into central Oklahoma overnight. the upper trough will move into the Missouri Valley, while high pressure builds in from the Intermountain West. For areas on the Plains, highs will reach into the lower 50s.
- Temperatures continue to be above freezing as the snow melts.
508 PM CST Fri Jan 26 2024 (This evening through Saturday) Main focus right now is the precipitation that is currently occurring over portions of the South Plains and Rolling Plains due to the mid/upper level low sitting directly over the FA. Rain is expected to continue over most of the FA through this afternoon before clearing out to the east following the low as is moves eastward the rest of today into tomorrow. Winds will be light and slowly backing from the northeast to the northwest as the low moves away from the FA. Slightly warmer high temperatures tomorrow in the 50s across the region.
AMDAR soundings and model forecast soundings reveal a shallow layer of moisture trapped beneath a strong inversion, with little drying in the low levels expected over the next few hours. Temperatures through the late afternoon into the evening hours likely won't fluctuate much, but we should see them steadily decline overnight into the low 40s due to weak cold air advection.
950 PM MST Fri Jan 26 2024 - Warm up starts tomorrow for areas across the Plains with no snow, with highs reaching into the lower 50s. satellite imagery shows an upper low spinning over the Texas Panhandle this afternoon, with broad northerly flow across the Eastern Plains. the upper low over the Texas Panhandle will continue to move east into central Oklahoma overnight. the upper trough will move into the Missouri Valley, while high pressure builds in from the Intermountain West. For areas on the Plains, highs will reach into the lower 50s.
915 PM CST Fri Jan 26 2024 - Freezing drizzle and fog look to reform/stay overnight, especially in Minnesota.
(Today and tonight) The cold front has moved through the area, leaving breezy northwest winds for this morning and afternoon. Northwest winds aloft will follow the upper level trough, bringing much drier air and clear skies for the short term. Cold air advection will keep temperatures a few degrees cooler this afternoon, despite the clearer skies and an increase in solar insolation. As we go into the evening and overnight period, high pressure will build in at the surface. This high pressure and the decrease in the pressure gradient will cause the winds to weaken. The weak winds combined with clear skies will allow for radiational cooling overnight, putting temperatures right around freezing by Sunday morning.
Lingering pockets of drizzle and light rain will likely persist into this evening near a leftover low level trough draped across the Lower Great Lakes. Subtle mid level ridging does look to overspread overnight into Saturday morning with weak high pressure settling in.
Per-WV, a stout open mid-level short wave trough continues to churn eastward off the Llano Estacado, and will continue to track east across the Southern Plains and the Ozarks through Saturday.
A stalling front to the north and incoming cold front will keep it unsettled at times into early Sunday. The boundary lifts back to the north heading into Saturday and a low level thermal ridge pokes into the area. An incoming cold front will lead to decent rain chances overnight Saturday night into Sunday morning, with 0. Upper trough moves through Sunday evening, though with mid level subsidence and dry air aloft it will be tough to get more than a few sprinkles out of the low levels. Decent upper ridge over the western U.
1054 PM CST Fri Jan 26 2024 (This evening through Saturday) The current weather has an upper level low(per WV imagery) over the South Plains near Lubbock. A cold front will move south across the area tonight with winds a little gusty behind the front.
But there is the potential for heavy rain, especially along the Cumberland Plateau and southern portions of Middle Tennessee -- mainly right along the low track.
316 AM EST Sat Jan 27 2024 High pressure will build into the region through tonight.
A closed mid/upper level low pressure system will lift northeast from the southern plains states, through the Ozarks, and into the Mid-South region tonight into Saturday morning. Also, an isolated severe storm can't be ruled out across southern and eastern portions of the forecast area as the aforementioned cold front moves through the area early to late morning Saturday (i.
Where the denser fog has occurred, temperatures are below freezing, so there are likely some slick spots on the secondary roadways, parking lots and sidewalks out there once again this morning. High temperatures remain near normal in the lower to mid 30s.
1107 PM CST Fri Jan 26 2024 - One final period of dense fog/freezing fog is expected tonight into the morning hours Saturday, with visibility down to a quarter mile in many places.
A ridge of high pressure is building over Arizona this evening with just a few high clouds and generally light winds. While any gustier locations will remain a bit warmer.
KEY MESSAGES: - Drizzle possible in the ridges this morning, then dry during the day before precipitation chances ramp up this evening. While slightly cooler than recent days, these temperatures are still 10-20 degrees above normal for this time of year. Rain chances will begin to ramp back up in the evening as low pressure tracks up the spine of the Appalachians and passes by just south of the local area.
CJC A low pressure system will track from the Texas Gulf coast into east Tennessee tonight through Saturday night bringing another round of rain and a few thunderstorms to the Mid-South.
143 AM MST Sat Jan 27 2024 - Dense fog/freezing fog will return to the eastern parts of the area tonight. Some zones in the east will see wrap-around moisture from the exiting system interact with a nosing ridge axis. Going into the upcoming weekend, after morning fog dissipates in the east, a decent weekend awaits for all as an upper ridge builds slowly east off the Rockies, creating northerly flow aloft. An upper level ridge will continue over the Plains through much of the week. Latest ECMWF and GEFS ensemble data shows the ridge has not changed intensity from the prior model run.
* Warmer and much drier period on the way, starting Sunday and continuing through the work week. At the surface, high pressure is situated over the Great Basin with low pressure down across southern TX. This feature looks to remain far enough east to limit any precip chances, but will bring slightly cooler temperatures. Medium range models then agree that by the end of the work week a western CONUS trough will take shape. Light northerly component winds thru Saturday with conditions improving to MVFR by Saturday afternoon, possibly VFR across the higher terrain of central Kansas (KRSL/KGBD) by late afternoon and perhaps south central Kansas by Saturday evening.
1048 PM CST Fri Jan 26 2024 (This evening through Saturday) Main focus right now is the precipitation that is currently occurring over portions of the South Plains and Rolling Plains due to the mid/upper level low sitting directly over the FA. Rain is expected to continue over most of the FA through this afternoon before clearing out to the east following the low as is moves eastward the rest of today into tomorrow. Winds will be light and slowly backing from the northeast to the northwest as the low moves away from the FA. Slightly warmer high temperatures tomorrow in the 50s across the region.
This morning a upper level trough is moving through the Red River Valley. During the day today it will move across Oklahoma into Arkansas and into the lower Ohio River Valley. This will keep the rain shield south of the CWA particularly as high pressure build into the area.
1254 AM EST Sat Jan 27 2024 Weak high pressure will build in tonight, allowing for relatively dry conditions. Low pressure lifting from the lower Mississippi Valley into the middle Ohio Valley will bring cold rain or snow late Saturday and Saturday night.
159 AM MST Sat Jan 27 2024 The two biggest challenges over the next few days continues to be if and when the fog forms, and how much will existing snowpack impact out much the temperatures warm up when this ridge moves in on Sunday. On Sunday a lee side trough moves through as a weak Chinook warm front and this should be enough to mix the inversion out and warm things up by a good 10 degrees.
Wind gusts between 20-25 mph will be possible at times as a weak cold front eventually moves through bringing modest cooler air to end the weekend.
A modest cold front moves in behind the surface cyclone that forms to our southwest, but the airmass it will accompany is not nearly as cold as some of the more recent frontal passages. So cooler, but not especially cold conditions are anticipated behind the front.
Northerly flow at the surface will filter in only slightly cooler air with highs generally in the 50s. Weak mid level ridging will keep dry conditions in place with highs climbing into the 60s Sunday.
As this water moves downriver, the lower Grand River will also continue to see rising water levels. Mild temperatures for this time of year continue through the week with highs around 40 and lows around freezing.
- Areas of flurries, drizzle, and freezing drizzle will persist tonight through Saturday night. While moisture remains limited, there should be enough forcing for ascent for another round of drizzle, freezing drizzle, and flurries advancing southeastward across northern Minnesota tonight and moving into northwest Wisconsin Saturday. Freezing drizzle accumulation of a few hundredths of an inch are forecast from Birchdale to Virginia to Isabella to Sea Gull Lake and the northern Gunflint Trail.
Areas of fog and drizzle/freezing drizzle linger thru early High Impact Weather Potential. Areas of fog and patchy freezing drizzle early this morning will result in areas of lowered vsbys and may cause some slick spots on roads and sidewalks. Temps across our entire CWA are still just above freezing. lending to the possibility of some spotty freezing drizzle before all precip chances finally comes to a close by around mid morning. PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: Midlevel longwave troughing with mild temperatures continue to occupy the majority of the central CONUS this weekend.
Rain will continue an eastward progression with upper low today with precipitation chances tapering off across northwest Arkansas by mid afternoon.
- Even warmer temperatures to end the month & start February. Downsloping off the higher terrain of the Buffalo Ridge should act to break up the cloud cover across western Minnesota by early afternoon, and then it is a question of how far west does the clearing spread before sunset. partly cloudy skies do look likely overnight, which will lead to cooler temperatures Saturday night/Sunday morning, as well as another night of widespread fog and mist.
1023 PM MST Fri Jan 26 2024 - Dense fog/freezing fog will return to the eastern parts of the area tonight. Some zones in the east will see wrap-around moisture from the exiting system interact with a nosing ridge axis. Going into the upcoming weekend, after morning fog dissipates in the east, a decent weekend awaits for all as an upper ridge builds slowly east off the Rockies, creating northerly flow aloft. Ridging will be becoming prominent to start the period and through the majority of the upcoming work week. 8 also further my confidence in warmer temperatures occurring. Very little to no precipitation is expected due to the ridging and the overall lack of forcing.
1037 PM CST Fri Jan 26 2024 (This evening through Saturday night) 20z WV satellite shows an upper low over W TX just to our south with multiple perturbations rounding this feature. In the northwestern Panhandles, light snow is ongoing as temperatures there are just a bit above freezing and, given temperature profile seen in that 12z RAOB, no warm nose is present. This afternoon and evening, with the upper low still shifting eastward, expect additional showers. Tonight, primary focus is if our dense fog recurs with this being potentially impactful as temperatures fall to or below freezing.
1059 PM CST Fri Jan 26 2024 (This afternoon through Saturday night) Showers and isolated thunderstorms continue percolating across Southeast New Mexico and the Permian Basin this afternoon as the low responsible for today's unsettled weather slowly meanders across the South Plains. As moisture is wrapped around the back side of this low, the ongoing showers will continue and expand in coverage through early this evening, especially across the Permian Basin, gradually moving eastward as the low treks into the Red River Valley tonight. Gusty winds will taper off after sunset, with a cold front progged to slide south into the area, resulting in a more northwesterly to northerly wind shift overnight.
Above average temperatures and increased humidity continues today as a high pressure system situated over the Atlantic keeps the southeasterly flow over the area. This weekend ushers in a cold front Saturday night into Sunday morning. Behind the front high pressure will build back in, bringing cooler, drier air with the NW to N flow. Otherwise, a cold front will push through Saturday night into Sunday bringing elevated winds and a chance for showers and thunderstorms.
(Today through Sunday) A cold front has pushed through South Central Texas with the surface front located offshore early this morning.
Models are picking up on some instances of higher gusts, so will continue to include the higher winds. Synoptically this would be a good location for severe weather as the low level jet strengthens and the mid level trough moves through.
159 AM MST Sat Jan 27 2024 An upper ridge is building over the region, although a small shot of moisture is entering this weekend.
A nice weekend is on tap for Southern Arizona as high pressure settles in over the region. Mid level heights rising significantly today as a ridge builds over the region.
(Today and tonight) The upper level trough that brought the rain and thunderstorms to the area will continue moving east across the southern CONUS leaving us with dry weather and clearing skies today. Winds are expected to remain out of the N-NW today but plentiful sunshine and increasing upper air heights will result in warmer temperatures with highs in the mid-to-upper 50s which is right around average for the end of January.
- Rain chances increase through the morning and early afternoon, with the highest chances (60-80%) and amounts (0. HREF Probability- Matched Mean (PMM) highlights the highest rainfall amounts along and south of the Highway 60 corridor, ranging from a quarter to a half inch. Overnight lows fall into the lower 30s with overcast skies and breezy northwest winds. Sunday: Heading into Sunday, the upper level trough shifts east of the region.
1119 PM CST Fri Jan 26 2024 - Freezing drizzle and fog look to reform/stay overnight, especially in Minnesota.
Areas of fog, mist, and drizzle have been occuring during the overnight period with moist low levels and increased subsidence from slight ridging over the area that is ahead of the next trough passage which is currently aligned over the central CONUS as it moves northeastward into the region later today. Expectation is that fog will trend less through the morning hours with diurnal warming, highs in the upper 30s and low 40s, but patchy fog/mist will stick around through most of the afternoon with the previously mentioned subsidence still in place until increased mixing arrives with the low pressure system moving up the Ohio River Valley late this afternoon and evening and just skirting south of the area. With the diurnal temperatures dropping to the lower 30s overnight, a mix of rain/snow showers will be possible Sunday morning.
(Today through Sunday) Models remain in fair agreement regarding a change in the prevailing weather pattern of the past days, as the dominant deep ridging finally begins to migrate eastward and into the Atlantic ahead of an approaching trough. This will also bring veering winds to the S/SW today, keeping afternoon highs still in the low 80s for much of the CWA. In terms of rain potential, models insist in keeping the best dynamic support well to the north of the state as the parent trough/low complex migrates eastward across the Carolinas and the eastern seaboard. Winds continue to veer to the W/NW late Sunday in the wake of the FROPA as high pressure quickly establishes across the region. But the drier/cooler air will not reach SoFlo in time to cool down highs on Sunday, which are still expected in the low 80s.
1051 PM CST Fri Jan 26 2024 (Tonight through Saturday night) Key Messages: - Patchy to areas of fog tonight - Cold front moving through the area overnight Patchy fog and drizzle has developed across portions of the Coastal Bend this afternoon leading to visibilities down to 1 mile or less at some locations. As a pre-frontal trough moves in over the next few hours, conditions are likely to improve with the visibilities lifting above 6 miles. However, latest model guidance indicates another round of patchy to areas of fog developing late tonight into early Saturday morning ahead of an approaching cold front. Saturday night will be much cooler with lows falling into the 40s areawide under clear to mostly clear skies and a light north to northwesterly wind.
The period begins on Sunday with southwesterly flow in the lower levels, with 925 mb temps in the single digits above zero C.
Tonight temps will dip down into the low 40s behind the front.
Guidance has a variety of solutions been in general bring the lower visibilities into the west over the next several hours before some improvement during the morning hours. Otherwise, low clouds remain through today into tonight before the low levels finally dry enough for some clearing into Sunday.
539 AM CST Sat Jan 27 2024 (Today through Sunday) A mid level trough/low over east Texas early this morning will continue to swing farther eastward through the day. The associated cold front has moved well south of Deep South Texas this morning. Temperatures will continue to fall into the low to mid 50s across in the Ranchlands to the low 60s across the Rio Grande Valley through sunrise. Highs will be near normal, ranging from the mid 60s at the beaches to the lower 70s inland.