Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
An upper level trough that moved by yesterday cleared out the marine layer. Wednesday with the cooler air persisting aloft this will keep the inversion weak and likely allow for clouds to clear back to the coast again, although this may be only for a short period of time. Afternoon high temperatures are expected to be a few degrees cooler than today for the inland areas. Most of the model soundings show the low level inversion lingering and this will likely limit any storms.
development was limited by a 500-mb high pressure center continuing to drift eastward over Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas. High pressure center remains over the CWA tonight while the surface boundary gets a push northeast. The location of the boundary overnight is progged to be within the deeper moisture plume residing on the eastern side of the ridge. Expanding mid-level ridge centered over the ArkLaTex will be the predominant feature thru tomorrow.
Mostly cloudy and cooler than normal, with isolated showers and possibly thunderstorms in the North Cascades near the crest this afternoon and evening.
Weak high pressure at the surface remains the dominant weather pattern across the local area.
An upper level trough continues to dominate the weather in the short term. Things change tomorrow as an upper low off the OR coast moves almost due east early Wednesday morning. with the low moving onshore Wednesday afternoon into the evening hours. Our main concern with this low coming onshore will be the chance for thunderstorms.
CAMs favor another round of afternoon thunderstorms in the high country.
750 PM EDT Tue Aug 13 2024 Drier air moves into the region mid to late week allowing for slightly cooler and drier conditions. As a weak cold front approaches the Southeast moisture returns to the region for the weekend. An upper trough is also expected to dig a but more and slide eastward through the short term period. A combination of these factors is expected to lead drier air and cooler temperatures.
Currently - A weak Atlantic ridge stretching across the Florida Peninsula is resulting in light breezes. Short Term Update - Breezes will remain light and mostly out of the east to southeast through the overnight due to ridging across the Florida mainland. A weak Atlantic Ridge stretches across South and Central Florida.
1142 PM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 (This evening through Wednesday night) Upper ridging centered near the Texas-Oklahoma border, extending northward through the Plains States, with troughing over the Pacific Northwest and Appalachians. While precipitable water values were generally near 2 inches this morning, the center of the ridging is expected to shift a bit eastward to near Shreveport tomorrow.
139 AM EDT Wed Aug 14 2024 Drier air moves into the region mid to late week allowing for slightly cooler and drier conditions. As a weak cold front approaches the Southeast moisture returns to the region for the weekend. An upper trough is also expected to dig a but more and slide eastward through the short term period. A combination of these factors is expected to lead drier air and cooler temperatures.
Early morning patchy fog to quickly dissipate, dry weather to continue outside of an errant shower in the high terrain. Discussion: Well not much different about today versus the weather yesterday, upper level setup is still the same with the upper trough slowly sliding eastwards now.
(Today and tonight) Expect hot temperatures again today as a strong upper level ridge builds over the area.
Another night, another Delta breeze bringing cooler temperatures and good overnight humidity recoveries to much of the Valley. The forecast calls for temps in the Valley between the high 50s and low 60s, and relative humidities primarily in the 50 to 80% range. Later today, and continuing through the end of the week, high temperatures will remain near to slightly below normal, though warming slightly from the past couple of days as the trough over us moves eastward and weakens. No need to fear the return of above normal temperatures though, a small, secondary trough is slated to move through late week, followed by a larger trough developing along the coast early over the weekend. Exact placement of the trough will help determine the exact temperature pattern over interior NorCal this weekend.
- Hot conditions appear to persist well beyond the forecast period as the ridge remains overhead. A weak mid/upper-level trough traverses the Pacific Northwest, and though H850 winds will not be exceptionally strong, wind speeds will be a bit higher than recent days. There is a medium-low chance (30-40%) of scattered thunderstorm development along the surface convergence zone (trough axis) by late afternoon over far northwest Oklahoma with chances gradually shifting across northern Oklahoma tonight.
Otherwise, mostly sunny skies are anticipated over the rest of the midstate today with highs getting a few degrees warmer than yesterday in the 86-92 range. Tomorrow looks even hotter as the center of an H5 ridge over the southern Plains shifts eastward towards us, with highs reaching the upper 80s in the Upper Cumberland and 92-97 range elsewhere.
(Today through Thursday) Upper-level ridging will begin to break down today in response to an amplifying trough expanding across the eastern US and western Atlantic. Temperatures will continue to rise into the low to mid 90s across much of the region each afternoon.
201 AM EDT Wed Aug 14 2024 High pressure brings dry weather with a warming trend through Thursday. High pressure passing north of the area beneath northwest mid/upper-level flow continues the dry weather with low humidity this period. Central guidance highs, in the upper 80s across the lowlands, are backed up by h85 temperatures climbing to around 16C with the mixed layer up through h8. The region will be under the influence of high pressure Thursday with a brief ridge building aloft.
(Today through Thursday) Key Messages: - Elevated Heat Indices for Today and Tomorrow - Mostly rain-free conditions The mid-level ridge continues to be the dominate force for the weather over Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley. Moving on to the low temperatures for tonight, those are expected to be mostly in the 70s with a few places in the 80s.
A low pressure system positioned over the central Idaho mountains this morning will move through the Island Park area this afternoon and into the Yellowstone region this evening. With that said, looking at mainly scattered storms along the front and near the path of low pressure center with isolated storms elsewhere across the region. A transitory ridge will push through the region tonight with another low pressure system moving through Oregon on Thursday. Best chances are across the Snake Plain into the Magic Valley and central mountains where proximity to the low is greatest.
243 AM EDT Wed Aug 14 2024 High pressure brings dry weather with a warming trend through Thursday. High pressure passing north of the area beneath northwest mid/upper-level flow continues the dry weather with low humidity this period. Central guidance highs, in the upper 80s across the lowlands, are backed up by h85 temperatures climbing to around 16C with the mixed layer up through h8. High pressure lingers on Thursday while a developing low pressure system tracks towards the Great Lakes. Dry conditions should persist through the day, then precipitation chances seep into the CWA overnight as the system lifts a warm front north towards the area.
Mid and upper cloud cover has steadily increased over the past few hours, but the lower levels still have some catching up to do in respect of moisture, and thus our rain chances will remain on the lower side.
Yet another couple of hot and humid summer days are in store for South Texas today and Thursday as ridging builds back up aloft from the west.
Latest surface map shows high pressure centered near northern Lake Michigan. The MCS continues to roll across southern Missouri but has been weakening, and a bit of thinning of the high clouds has occurred along its periphery.
- Warmer and quieter forecast into the weekend. Sounding hodographs continue to display large looping profiles, however storms will not arrive into southwest Iowa until 03z or after and expect the nocturnal inversion will prevent storms from realizing much of the lower level SRH available. As the trough pushes east warmer and drier air moves into the area, making way for a warmer and mostly quiet weekend. Temperatures are expected to rebound back into the low to mid 80s.
Northeast sections of the forecast area will have the highest probability of experiencing this convection.
1237 AM EDT Wed Aug 14 2024 Dry high pressure gradually builds in from the north through Thursday, pushing a stalled front further south of the area.
/Issued 1244 AM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024/ /Through Thursday/ Above-normal temperatures will continue for the next few days as a mid level ridge remains planted overhead. The ridge will weaken slightly Wednesday night and Thursday as an upper trough sweeps across the Plains. The trough will help push a weak front southward towards the Red River during the day Thursday. Veering winds and the resulting downslope flow ahead of the front will offset the lower heights aloft, perhaps even adding a degree or two to high temperatures Thursday afternoon. The more likely scenario is that subsidence from the ridge will overcome any convective attempts, keeping everyone hot and rain free for another day. The upper ridge will strengthens this weekend resulting in our hottest days of this period.
We will fall on the periphery of the stacked ridge out west, so there will be some storms rotating down into the area over the coming days.
1221 AM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 (Tonight through Wednesday night) Key Messages: - Low to medium chances for showers and thunderstorms on Wednesday across the Victoria Crossroads - Moderate to major risk of heat-related impacts through the week Mid to upper level ridging will continue to build into the region tonight through tomorrow night, promoting above normal temperatures.
THe highest are near TPA, PIE and guidance keeps slightly higher moisture around SW FL so added PROB30 to FMY and RSW to reflect the possibility of convection.
(Today through Thursday) An inverted trough is noted on GOES 15 water vapor imagery early this morning, mainly over northern Mexico and hugging the Rio Grande. High pressure will remain in control through the short term period.
There is some shower and tstm activity over wrn CO which may affect portions of the higher terrain after midnight, however, this activity should not have much impact on the plains late tonight. CAMs favor another round of afternoon thunderstorms in the high country. There may be a few showers and storms that linger into the overnight hours Wednesday night and into Thursday morning due to this trough. Later in the day on Thursday, a weak ridge aloft will develop over Colorado while an upper level jet stream will still be overhead.
333 AM EDT Wed Aug 14 2024 - One more sunny day, then showers/storms Thursday - Rain chances persist into the Weekend - One more sunny day, then showers/storms Thursday Latest surface analysis shows high pressure over Lower Michigan and an upper ridge nosing in from the west. We'll see highs in the mid 80s today along with humid conditions due to dewpoints in the lower to mid 60s. Farther west, low pressure was beginning to develop over the northern Plains and this low will move east tonight to the upper MS Valley. Clouds will increase tonight as the low moves closer to the Great Lakes.
1155 PM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 (This evening through Wednesday) A high pressure ridge will continue to sit across the region through the remainder of today and tomorrow. Our normal high temperature for this time of year is right around 98 degrees, so we are a few degrees warmer than normal.
419 AM EDT Wed Aug 14 2024 High pressure moves into the region mid to late week allowing for dry weather and slightly cooler temperatures. As a weak cold front approaches the Southeast this weekend, moisture and rain chances return. Upper ridge over the southern Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley. Deep low over the Canadian Maritimes with trough along the east coast this afternoon shifting slowly east tonight. High pressure over the Mid Atlantic region will extend into the area. A short wave trough moving through the area may trigger a few isolated showers. Key Message(s): - None A relatively dry air mass and high pressure will likely preclude precipitation over the area through Thursday night. Afternoon dewpoints in the low to mid 60s will be a nice change of pace from the humidity over the last few weeks.
429 AM EDT Wed Aug 14 2024 (Today through Thursday) Northwest flow aloft continues for the region as the ridge over the central CONUS breaks down.
Temperatures were near or slightly cooler than mid August normals today. The upper-level trough will move to the east, allowing room for a upper- level ridge to build over our area from the high pressure system in the southwest.
This setup allowed a little more coverage of convection over the higher terrain yesterday, some of which is still going invof KCNM. This afternoon/evening, large-scale ascent from the incoming trough will combine w/a weak line of convergence running SW-NE through the CWA, for perhaps the best chances of rain for West Texas and Southeast New Mexico for the next couple of weeks or so. Despite this, thicknesses are forecast to increase locally, so afternoon highs should be at or just a bit warmer than yesterday. The bad news for those who like cooler weather is that today will be the coolest day this forecast. Thursday, thicknesses increase further, signaling what looks to be a long-fused heat wave as the western portion of the ridge begins building east, adding a couple of degrees to this afternoon's highs, w/temperatures ~ 8-10 F above normal.
Temperatures range from the lower to mid 90s, expecting mid to upper 90s before the afternoon is over. For Wednesday through Thursday night, the mid to upper level ridge will continue to be centered right over Louisiana and Texas, continuing the above normal temperatures. With the influence of the upper level ridge and the limited mid level moisture, only isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms along the I-10 corridor southward can be expected, with even less chances further north.
Strong storm potential increases by Thursday, when the primary long wave trof of low pressure breaks into the Mississippi Valley. Howsever, the cold front that the system pushes in/thru the region is modeled after the peak favorable time of the afternoon/evening, so the timing may be slightly off for all the parameters coming together. The NBM lingers pops thru the remainder of the week as the closed upper level low slowly makes its passage across the Great Lakes. It may be somewhat overdone per usual after fropa, but for now, we'll not argue small pops mention until the cyclone is well past us/to the east.
1124 PM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 (This evening through Wednesday Night) Mid to upper level ridging remains in control over our region, keeping hot and humid conditions. Despite the influence of the high pressure (subsidence), a plume of low level moisture continues to filter in from the Gulf. With the region positioned on the southeastern edge of high pressure, east to southerly sfc winds will continue to bring a warmer and more Gulf humid airmass into the region.
- Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms will develop along a cold front Thursday evening. - Once the cold front passes, mild and dry weather is on tap for the upcoming weekend. High temperatures will be a couple of degrees warmer than yesterday in the middle 80s. As upper ridging builds over the Plains, the frontal boundary will get nudged E/NE later today into tonight. With boundary layer flow veering from SE to S/SW upon passage of the warm front, higher surface dewpoints in the lower to middle 70s will contribute to a strongly unstable environment with SBCAPEs greater than 2500J/kg. As a result, areal coverage of convection along the cold front may be somewhat lacking.
A ridge axis remains across South Florida and is maintaining gentle breezes this morning. An upper-level trough across the Eastern Seaboard will start to drive Ernesto to the north to northeast as it becomes the main steering mechanism over the next day or so. In terms of the weather back home, the same upper trough will cause the Atlantic rigde to recede to the east.
At the surface, low pressure will deepen along the Nebraska/Kansas state line. Deep vertical mixing within the trough axis could keep heat indices below advisory levels for parts of central and south central Kansas but this would allow temperatures to climb into the 100-103 range. Isolated or perhaps widely scattered storms may develop along this frontal boundary after 21-22Z with the highest probabilities (30- 40%) across our central Kansas counties during the evening hours.
Showers and storms will are possible again across northeast KS tonight into Wednesday morning as a warm front pushes northward across the area and another mid-level wave moves overhead. Sporadic rain chances remain later in the week as we are favored to remain on the northern/eastern periphery of an upper-level ridge and in the neighborhood of passing upper-level waves.
1033 AM EDT Wed Aug 14 2024 Temperatures as of 9 AM are in the low to mid 80s with dew points in the upper 70s to low 80s under mostly sunny skies. Afternoon highs will be in the low to mid 90s again today, with peak heat indices ranging from 106-110 degrees.
In other words, rain distributions have a long tail on the high side. Thursday afternoon and evening: Additional rain, potential severe Thursday afternoon, next upper trough approaches from the west, likely kicking off another round of convection.
Meanwhile, a weak boundary associated with an upper level trough pushing off the East Coast should continue to approach the FL Peninsula through Thursday.
The chance for storms will diminish a bit this weekend, as warmer afternoon temperatures move back in for a few days.
710 AM EDT Wed Aug 14 2024 High pressure brings dry weather with a warming trend through Thursday. It turned out slightly cooler than forecast in northeast portions of the area early this morning, and we finally did get valley fog in and near the mountains. High pressure passing north of the area beneath northwest mid/upper-level flow continues the dry weather with low humidity this period. Central guidance highs, in the upper 80s across the lowlands, are backed up by h85 temperatures climbing to around 16C with the mixed layer up through h8. High pressure lingers on Thursday while a developing low pressure system tracks towards the Great Lakes. Dry conditions should persist through the day, then precipitation chances seep into the CWA overnight as the system lifts a warm front north towards the area.
621 AM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 (Today through Thursday) Key Messages: - Elevated Heat Indices for Today and Tomorrow - Mostly rain-free conditions The mid-level ridge continues to be the dominate force for the weather over Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley. Moving on to the low temperatures for tonight, those are expected to be mostly in the 70s with a few places in the 80s.
205 AM PDT Wed Aug 14 2024 * Low pressure along the West Coast will bring breezy afternoon winds and temperatures close to seasonal averages through the weekend.
For all other locations in the state, quiet weather was ongoing and is expected to prevail as an upper ridge moves towards the state.
640 AM EDT Wed Aug 14 2024 High pressure moves into the region mid to late week allowing for dry weather and slightly cooler temperatures. As a weak cold front approaches the Southeast this weekend, moisture and rain chances return. Upper ridge over the southern Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley. Deep low over the Canadian Maritimes with trough along the east coast this afternoon shifting slowly east tonight. High pressure over the Mid Atlantic region will extend into the area. A short wave trough moving through the area may trigger a few isolated showers. Key Message(s): - None A relatively dry air mass and high pressure will likely preclude precipitation over the area through Thursday night. Afternoon dewpoints in the low to mid 60s will be a nice change of pace from the humidity over the last few weeks.
(Today through Thursday) Northwest flow aloft continues for the region as the ridge over the central CONUS breaks down.
The Florida Keys remain on the western periphery of a ridge axis extending across the North Atlantic, virtually now on top of the Florida Keys. The 12z morning sounding at KEY highlighted the weak nature of this ridging, with virtually no sampled cap. From synopsis, an Atlantic ridge axis stretching west across South Florida will support light to gentle southeast to south breezes through this afternoon, becoming variable. Breezes will shift to the northwest by Thursday night, as a trough dips south along the Eastern Seaboard.
Another hot one out there with the upper level ridge in place to help suppress most convection and allow air temperatures to soar.
508 AM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 Early morning model guidance highlights a persistent high pressure system over the ArkLaMiss region today. Thursday will see a continuation of hot conditions with areas east of I-55 seeing afternoon temperatures climb in the low 100s with the rest of the area seeing highs in the upper 90s.
Today through Thursday night A low pressure system will approach the Pacific NW coast today, while a ridge of high pressure is positioned over the southern U.
605 AM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 Early morning model guidance highlights a persistent high pressure system over the ArkLaMiss region today. Thursday will see a continuation of hot conditions with areas east of I-55 seeing afternoon temperatures climb in the low 100s with the rest of the area seeing highs in the upper 90s.
Temps are running a few degrees warmer at areas away from the immediate coast. This trend should be dampened today though, as yet another progressive trough moves through the region.
704 AM EDT Wed Aug 14 2024 - One more sunny day, then showers/storms Thursday - Rain chances persist into the Weekend - One more sunny day, then showers/storms Thursday Latest surface analysis shows high pressure over Lower Michigan and an upper ridge nosing in from the west. We'll see highs in the mid 80s today along with humid conditions due to dewpoints in the lower to mid 60s. Farther west, low pressure was beginning to develop over the northern Plains and this low will move east tonight to the upper MS Valley. Clouds will increase tonight as the low moves closer to the Great Lakes.
A low pressure system over the area will shift southward today, resulting in gusty north winds and steep seas across the coastal waters.
RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FOR MARION, PUTNAM, AND FLAGLER Tonight, high pressure builds directly over the FL peninsula with below normal low temperatures in the mid/upper 30s inland to low 40s along the St.
At the surface, an area of cool, dry high pressure was positioned over the Lower MS River Valley. Rip current probabilities are still in the low thresholds Friday but edging upward due to a more established onshore flow setting up.
1228 PM EST Thu Mar 6 2025 Strong low pressure over the Great Lakes will track northeast into Canada, with snow showers ending early and gusty winds slowly diminishing through the day. High pressure will offer a a short period of dry weather this afternoon into tonight. Precipitation will develop on Friday ahead of a progressive low pressure system that tracks from the Central Plains across the Ohio Valley Friday night. Most precipitation associated with the departing trough has ended with the exception of a few flurries. Isentropic lift develops ahead of this low in response to a 45-50Kt low level jet.
Temperatures are in the upper 20s near the International Border and the low to mid 30s elsewhere.