Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
08 Previous short-term discussion: (This afternoon through Sunday) It's a warm and sunny afternoon across Central Alabama with a large ridge over the Central CONUS continuing to promote these conditions. Believe it or not, there are some showers moving into the Tennessee Valley associated with a weak cold front which will move into the area tonight. The front will encounter quite a bit of dry air, and forcing is not particularly strong amidst the dominant ridge presence, but there will be an increase in cloud cover and perhaps a few showers overnight and into tomorrow.
627 PM CDT Sat Oct 26 2024 (This afternoon through Sunday) It's a warm and sunny afternoon across Central Alabama with a large ridge over the Central CONUS continuing to promote these conditions. Believe it or not, there are some showers moving into the Tennessee Valley associated with a weak cold front which will move into the area tonight. The front will encounter quite a bit of dry air, and forcing is not particularly strong amidst the dominant ridge presence, but there will be an increase in cloud cover and perhaps a few showers overnight and into tomorrow.
659 PM EDT Sat Oct 26 2024 (Rest of today through Sunday) Mid level ridging centered over the Florida Straits and Cuba this afternoon will slowly start to shift southeastward heading into Sunday as an upstream mid level trough dives down through the Deep South and into the Gulf of Mexico. At the surface, high pressure centered off to the north will slowly shift into the western Atlantic. While an abundance of dry air continues to filter in across the mid to upper levels, an east northeasterly wind flow at the surface allows for some moisture to work into South Florida at the lower levels. Low temperatures tonight will range from the upper 60s across Southwest Florida to the lower 70s across the east coast metro areas. High temperatures on Sunday will generally rise into the lower to mid 80s across most areas.
549 PM CDT Sat Oct 26 2024 - Temperatures cooler for today.
1043 PM EDT Sat Oct 26 2024 - Cooler, dry air will continue to filter into eastern Kentucky overnight.
The forecast is basically on track, and little change was made to the low temps with upper 50s and lower 60s anticipated.
(Tonight) A cold front has dropped south through the forecast area late this afternoon and early evening. A light north wind is now advecting temperatures into the lower 60s in southern middle TN to the upper 60s to around 70 in north AL. A few sprinkles have reentered northwest AL and will keep the low PoP forecast as is, although confidence in measurable rainfall remains low.
730 PM EDT Sat Oct 26 2024 Winds and clouds will diminish this evening, and temperatures drop below freezing over most of the area by Sunday morning.
941 PM EDT Sat Oct 26 2024 A wave of low pressure moving southeast across North Carolina will bring a few showers to northern North Carolina and perhaps far southern Virginia tonight.
952 PM CDT Sat Oct 26 2024 Wx map shows weak ridge of high pressure over the region, with light southeast winds south of I-10, calm elsewhere.
456 PM CDT Sat Oct 26 2024 (Tonight) Weak cold front has begun to cross into the far NW half of the local area heading more into the afternoon hrs this Sat. Increasing cloud cover with the oncoming front will help keep overnight lows mainly in the lower/mid 50s.
Earlier isolated shower activity has diminished at this hour as a weak cold front continues to press southward into north Georgia. Increased cloud cover is expected within the wedge, along with cooler temperatures.
554 PM CDT Sat Oct 26 2024 (Tonight through Sunday night) Mostly sunny skies with a few areas of mid-level clouds prevail today as warm and dry conditions continue under the influence of upper level ridging. Afternoon temperatures both today and tomorrow will be similar with highs in the mid to upper 80s over portions of the Hill Country and southern Edwards Plateau and in the low 90s elsewhere.
Upper ridging will moving into the Plains today, before southwesterly flow sets up tonight and continues into the middle of the work week ahead of the incoming trough.
325 AM EDT Sun Oct 27 2024 High pressure will lead to dry but cool conditions today.
1213 AM CDT Sun Oct 27 2024 The cold front is well clear of Middle Tennessee and some of the area picked up some beneficial rain today. (Rest of today through Sunday) At midday, scattered showers were occurring along a cold front with a few lightning strikes just south of Nashville. Otherwise, cooler air will be moving in with north winds.
(Today through Monday) Mid-level ridging over Baja California will expand eastward over the Texas panhandle through Monday. Monday will be a smidge cooler as moisture begins to creep back into the area with deterministic guidance anticipating PWATs nearing the 75th percentile for climatology around 1.
The forecast is basically on track, and little change was made to the low temps with upper 50s and lower 60s anticipated. (Sunday through Monday night) Sunday looks to be a beautiful day as high pressure sticks around the area creating mostly clear to partly cloudy skies and high daytime temperatures in the mid to upper 80s at inland locations. Coastal daytime temperatures will be slightly cooler with the onshore winds in the afternoon sticking around the upper 70s to low 80s. Overnight temperatures will cool into the low to mid 60s inland staying slightly warmer along the coast. As high pressure moves further east, onshore northeasterly winds will pick up helping to increase chances for scattered showers along the northeast Florida coast Monday afternoon.
153 AM EDT Sun Oct 27 2024 Winds and clouds will diminish this evening, and temperatures drop below freezing over most of the area by Sunday morning.
The aforementioned front is progged to linger over southern AR for much of tonight, before getting pushed further to the south as an upper trof swings thru the region. Kept the fcst dry on Sun, but expect clouds to linger in the south with an outside chance (10%) of a stray shower as the front starts to return north as a warm front. For Mon, south winds will bring unseasonably warmer air back to the Natural State.
310 AM CDT Sun Oct 27 2024 Today and Tonight: A weak cold frontal boundary which has pushed its way into our forecast area will stall out today somewhere around the Interstate 20 corridor.
334 AM EDT Sun Oct 27 2024 High pressure builds in today with breezy and dry conditions expected. An upper level ridge will be slowly building in through the near term with weak warm air advection developing this morning. Overnight lows for tonight were raised a few degrees relative to what were forecast the last couple of days but still expecting much of the region to get below freezing. Monday will be the beginning of a warm up with day time highs about 5 degrees warmer than todays highs as the warm air advection aloft strengthens with the building ridge. A ridge of high pressure will be the main weather driver for the period.
While shower coverage will remain sparse, a 1031 mb high pressure system over the Eastern United States will move southeastward toward the Ohio valley.
102 AM EDT Sun Oct 27 2024 (Rest of today through Sunday) Mid level ridging centered over the Florida Straits and Cuba this afternoon will slowly start to shift southeastward heading into Sunday as an upstream mid level trough dives down through the Deep South and into the Gulf of Mexico. At the surface, high pressure centered off to the north will slowly shift into the western Atlantic. While an abundance of dry air continues to filter in across the mid to upper levels, an east northeasterly wind flow at the surface allows for some moisture to work into South Florida at the lower levels. Low temperatures tonight will range from the upper 60s across Southwest Florida to the lower 70s across the east coast metro areas. High temperatures on Sunday will generally rise into the lower to mid 80s across most areas.
Expect one more day of warm and dry conditions today under high pressure.
Latest surface analysis had a nearly stationary cold front along and just south Highway 82. Local radars showed a broken band of very light showers along and just behind the cold front. The cold front will continue to sag into central Mississippi tonight.
Skies clear by afternoon with southerly winds gradually returning and high temps a few degrees warmer than yesterday.
As PW around 1" traverse the FL peninsula and high pressure settles over the region, mostly dry conditions are forecast through today. Highs reach near to slightly above normal values in the low to mid 80s this afternoon, followed by temps falling into the mid 60s to low 70s tonight. Coastal locations will stay slightly warmer due to onshore flow. Entering the water is discouraged where the high risk of rip currents exists.
(Today and tonight) Upper level ridging will remain overhead of the FA over the next several days, which will lead to quiet and warmer weather for the South Plains region.
1148 PM CDT Sat Oct 26 2024 Wx map shows weak ridge of high pressure over the region, with light southeast winds south of I-10, calm elsewhere. Guidance is showing development beginning later tonight than has been seen the last couple of evenings with the highest probs of dense fog being confined closer to the coast.
1253 AM CDT Sun Oct 27 2024 - Temperatures cooler for today. Warmer temperatures return Sunday and Monday. Temperatures will be a bit warmer tomorrow with south winds making a return.
(Today through Monday) Key Messages: - Another Round of Dense Fog this Morning In the short term, things will continue remain quiet over the next couple of days with the influence of the ridge that is currently centered over Baja California. The influence of the ridge is also expected to yield areas of dense fog again this morning similar to yesterday.
The actual normals are coming in around the average between the lows and highs and these continue making around 30F swings daily. Basically, normals are from 73F to 75F for this date, well below the highs in the mid 80s to around 90F.
148 AM EDT Sun Oct 27 2024 - Cooler, dry air will continue to filter into eastern Kentucky overnight.
An upper level ridge over the southern Rockies will provide subsidence, clear skies, and well above normal temperatures across the area today. Monday an upper trough moves into the West Coast, dampening the ridge and increasing westerly flow in New Mexico and West Texas.
High pressure currently centered across the central Great Lakes area will also move eastward today, with a wedge building down on the back side of the weak front.
- Cooler conditions following a midweek cold front.
136 AM EDT Sun Oct 27 2024 - Cool temperatures in the low 30s tonight and low to mid 30s tomorrow night are expected.
Expect fair and dry conditions with mostly sunny skies with a transition to southerly winds via the clockwise flow around the dominant high pressure center across the Mid-Atlantic region of the CONUS.
In the wake of yesterday's cold front, temperatures will remain cool, only warming into the low 70s. High pressure begins to build over the southeast US as we start the new work week, and this will lead to increasing temperatures once again. (Monday Night through next Sunday) High pressure continues to dominate through the first half of the week, meaning that dry, quiet weather is in store with well above normal temperatures for late October.
307 AM EDT Sun Oct 27 2024 - Cool temperatures in the low to mid 30s tomorrow night are expected.
Central CONUS ridging remains evident in water vapor imagery this afternoon with strong model agreement in the evolution of the large scale pattern through the middle of the coming week. First the ridge will continue to build with a wave coming ashore British Columbia by tomorrow and ridging atop the eastward moving ridge initiating a mass response below transporting a warm mountain downslope airmass east from the rockies for the the next few days.
1253 AM CDT Sun Oct 27 2024 (Tonight through Sunday night) Mostly sunny skies with a few areas of mid-level clouds prevail today as warm and dry conditions continue under the influence of upper level ridging. Afternoon temperatures both today and tomorrow will be similar with highs in the mid to upper 80s over portions of the Hill Country and southern Edwards Plateau and in the low 90s elsewhere.
Weak high pressure continues to ridge westward across the northern gulf coast states. This dry frontal boundary will slowly shift southeastward by Monday afternoon as strong high pressure over the Great Lakes moves eastward and fills in over the mid-Atlantic states. High pressure ridging across the northern gulf states will produce rain-free conditions, northeast winds less than 15 knots and seas 2 feet or less through the weekend. Stronger high pressure sets up over the mid-Atlantic states by Monday producing slightly higher winds around 15-20 knots and seas building up to 3-5 feet.
344 AM EDT Sun Oct 27 2024 High pressure will build overhead today, before progressing offshore on Monday. This area of high pressure will remain offshore through the middle of the week.
1257 AM CDT Sun Oct 27 2024 Latest surface analysis had a nearly stationary cold front along and just south Highway 82. Local radars showed a broken band of very light showers along and just behind the cold front. The cold front will continue to sag into central Mississippi tonight.
303 AM EDT Sun Oct 27 2024 Dry and seasonable weather will continue today under high pressure. The high will maintain dry weather through mid week as it moves east of the area.
A weak ridge axis extending across northeast Florida could support patchy fog development north of the I-4 corridor overnight and into early Sunday morning. Low temperatures are forecast to mostly range the low to mid 60s, but values will remain a few degrees warmer along the southern Brevard and Treasure Coasts. Weak high pressure will remain in control Sunday and produce generally good boating conditions and mostly dry conditions. Then reinforcing high pressure will build down the eastern seaboard early next which will increase the onshore flow resulting in building seas and an increase in marine showers early to mid week.
Elevated breeziness and a layer of stratocumulus will lead to slightly warmer lows early Monday morning and deter any considerable fog development.
A weak cold front moves into the area tonight, but won't make a clean passage and likely will fall apart over the area.
Can't rule out an isolated shower today as well, mainly in the high terrain this afternoon. Don't expect the low clouds to move out until later today but they'll gradually break up as we get into the afternoon and evening hours.
(Today through Monday) A weak cold front is expected to slowly push southward through Central Alabama today. Ridging persists in the lower levels as the upper level trough shifts to our east on Monday. Along and west of I-65 will likely warm back into the low to mid 80s as upper level ridging builds back in from the west through the afternoon.
(Today through Monday) A mid-level trough will dive through the Florida Peninsula on Sunday, providing some level of forcing through the short term period. As a result, even with the presence of the trough, showers will be hard to come by through Monday. Temperatures will hit the low to mid 80s each day for highs. Overnight lows will be in the upper 60s for the lake region and SW Florida, and the low 70s along the east coast metro.
527 AM EDT Sun Oct 27 2024 High pressure will build onto the Mid Atlantic coast today while low pressure remains over the Northern Maritimes.
(Today) The cold front (which crossed the region yesterday afternoon) now resides across southern portions of MS/AL/GA, with light NNE winds now observed across the TN Valley. Over the course of the day, an area of high pressure (currently centered across eastern OH/western PA) will build eastward into the Mid-Atlantic states and be reinforced by a secondary high dropping southeastward from Ontario.
625 AM CDT Sun Oct 27 2024 (Today through Monday) Key Messages: - Another Round of Dense Fog this Morning In the short term, things will continue remain quiet over the next couple of days with the influence of the ridge that is currently centered over Baja California. The influence of the ridge is also expected to yield areas of dense fog again this morning similar to yesterday.
611 AM CDT Sun Oct 27 2024 (Today through Monday) A weak cold front is expected to slowly push southward through Central Alabama today. Ridging persists in the lower levels as the upper level trough shifts to our east on Monday. Along and west of I-65 will likely warm back into the low to mid 80s as upper level ridging builds back in from the west through the afternoon.
/SAS/ Today and Tonight: A weak cold frontal boundary which has pushed its way into our forecast area will stall out today somewhere around the Interstate 20 corridor.
742 AM EDT Sun Oct 27 2024 (Today through Monday) A mid-level trough will dive through the Florida Peninsula on Sunday, providing some level of forcing through the short term period. As a result, even with the presence of the trough, showers will be hard to come by through Monday. Temperatures will hit the low to mid 80s each day for highs. Overnight lows will be in the upper 60s for the lake region and SW Florida, and the low 70s along the east coast metro.
728 AM EDT Sun Oct 27 2024 - Cool temperatures in the low to mid 30s tomorrow night are expected.
325 AM MDT Sun Oct 27 2024 KEY MESSAGES: - Strong cold front today will bring breezy winds and a change to cooler conditions by Monday.
Near-record high temperatures will be possible each day with readings in the low to mid 80s.
Upper level ridging will build back into the region by Monday in wake of the front.
629 AM CDT Sun Oct 27 2024 (Today through Monday) Mid-level ridging over Baja California will expand eastward over the Texas panhandle through Monday. Monday will be a smidge cooler as moisture begins to creep back into the area with deterministic guidance anticipating PWATs nearing the 75th percentile for climatology around 1.
911 AM EDT Sun Oct 27 2024 High pressure will build overhead today, before progressing offshore on Monday. This area of high pressure will remain offshore through the middle of the week.
919 AM EDT Sun Oct 27 2024 High pressure will lead to dry but cool conditions today.
701 AM CDT Sun Oct 27 2024 Today and Tonight: A weak cold frontal boundary which has pushed its way into our forecast area will stall out today somewhere around the Interstate 20 corridor.
Temperatures are in the upper 70s to near 80 degrees with dew points in the lower to mid 60s! Quite the pleasant day if you do not mind the breeze.
531 AM EDT Sun Oct 27 2024 Dry and seasonable weather will continue today under high pressure. The high will maintain dry weather through mid week as it moves east of the area.
857 AM EDT Sun Oct 27 2024 Dry and seasonable weather will continue today under high pressure. The high will maintain dry weather through mid week as it moves east of the area.
The weak cold front which moved southward thru the area earlier this morning is now located across central MS/AL/GA, leaving a light N/NE flow in place. Low level flow veering more to the ENE later today coupled with some lingering cloud cover in place may help to keep afternoon highs more in the mid/upper 70s, which is a few degrees cooler compared to the last few days.
Sunday marks the beginning of a colder and unsettled weather pattern as a slow moving cold front increases clouds, winds, and eventually precipitation chances across the region from northwest to southeast Sunday night into Monday.
627 AM CDT Sun Oct 27 2024 (Today and tonight) Upper level ridging will remain overhead of the FA over the next several days, which will lead to quiet and warmer weather for the South Plains region.
641 AM EDT Sun Oct 27 2024 High pressure will lead to dry but cool conditions today.
A few more days of unseasonably warm and dry conditions before a cold front approaches the region.
- Cooler temperatures move in for the latter half of the week. Most recent upper air models and Water Vapor show mild ridging over the northern plains, with an upper trough digging into the PAC NW. At the surface, low pressure sits over central MT, with a warm front running east into ND. The warmer temperatures coupled with breezy southwest winds has brought elevated to critical fire weather conditions over the region this afternoon. Tonight into Monday the ridge slides east into the Great Lakes region, setting up southwest flow aloft. While cooler than today, highs will remain slightly above normal, in the mid 60s to mid 70s.
139 PM EDT Sun Oct 27 2024 High pressure will wedge southward across the Mid- Atlantic. A gradual warmup will return to the region through the middle of the week as upper level ridging develops across the east coast and high pressure move offshore.
Our little overnight cool front has turned around and is lifting into S AR with 70s and lower 80s there, but to south of the boundary, it is warmer mid to upper 80s and even a few 90+ on that SW wind. A little more patchy fog is possible, but the ground has been warming out of the 60s into the low 70s as of lastnight at midnight, and this will help mitigate any mist density. Overnight tomorrow will be warmer with mostly 60s across the board and no fog with more wind. However, most of the "warm" min records are safe in the lower 70s.
204 PM CDT Sun Oct 27 2024 Dry conditions continue to prevail through early week thanks to pronounced upper ridging situated over the SE CONUS.
An upper level ridge axis will move from the plains to the Tn Valley on Monday.
226 PM EDT Sun Oct 27 2024 Zonal flow remains in place aloft over the region through the next couple of days before ridging builds in over the southeast. At the surface, high pressure keeps a northeasterly flow in place and this flow increases a bit through the week as the pressure gradient tightens.
A mid-level trough slowly dropping over the Southeast US and FL Peninsula will try to provide some level of lift or forcing, but dry air in the low-mid levels will make it very difficult. High temperatures will reach the low to mid 80s each day. Overnight lows will be in the upper 60s for the lake region and SW Florida, and the low 70s along the east coast metro.
213 PM MDT Sun Oct 27 2024 KEY MESSAGES: - A cold front will bring gusty west winds to the area tonight, so a Lake Wind Advisory is out from 10 PM tonight through 10 AM Monday.
A potent low level jet will develop across the region overnight, leading to an upward trend in wind speeds and gusts by early Monday morning, a slight uptick in moisture and overnight lows noticeably warmer than those seen this morning - for parts of northeast and east central Oklahoma anyway. The existing Fire Weather Watch has been upgraded to a Red Flag Warning for Osage and Pawnee counties, where the highest confidence in the lowest afternoon relative humidities currently exists. The cloud cover does provide some uncertainty regarding how high wind gusts will get tomorrow but believe the low level jet and pressure gradient are both high enough to warrant a Wind Advisory tomorrow from late morning into early evening for areas near the Kansas border.
A high pressure system over the area will gradually slide eastward tonight and Monday. As the high slides eastward on Monday, a southerly breeze will allow for afternoon temperatures to warm up slightly compared to Sunday. Very dry air at the top of the mixing level will allow for afternoon dewpoints to be on the lower side of guidance. Dry weather persists due to strong high pressure which will promote dry air in the boundary layer and could mix down to the surface causing RH values to plummet some.