Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Water vapor imagery highlights a TUTT cell to the southeast of Bermuda, lowering heights across the Eastern Seaboard, mean-layer ridging over the southern Plains, and a chaotic maelstrom of weakened flow across the Caribbean and the Gulf of Mexico.
The next chance for more widespread showers and thunderstorms returns at the end of the week as a warm front lifts northeast from the Ohio Valley. Temps just a little cooler (3-5F) than seasonal normals will continue tonight with a light NNW wind. It could even be a deg cooler in some spots on Tues.
434 PM EDT Mon Aug 12 2024 An upper level trof will exit across the Maritimes tonight.
A Heat Advisory will be in effect for the entire area Tuesday afternoon as the mid-upper level ridge continues to strengthen overhead.
Associated cloud cover will keep our northeast counties a few degrees cooler than the rest of the forecast area.
Warming trend continues tomorrow as ridging builds with high temperatures reaching the 90 degree mark again for the Nashville area and locations south.
The next chance for more widespread showers and thunderstorms returns at the end of the week as a warm front lifts northeast from the Ohio Valley.
The main change with this update was adding patchy fog for most of the lower elevations. Temperatures increase into the low to mid 70s for Tuesday.
(This evening through Tuesday) A progressive upper level trough axis will pass across our area this afternoon, shifting east into the Central Valley later tonight. As expected, temperatures are running about 5-10 degrees cooler than normal across our locations away from the marine boundary layer influence. Marine layer stratus is mostly clearing out as the upper trough sweeps across the region. Temperatures tomorrow will be very similar to today, maybe a degree or two warmer in some spots.
Drier air starts to move into the western zones Tuesday as a trough of low pressure over the Pacific Northwest moves southward.
623 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 (This evening through Tuesday Night) Upper level ridging centered over west Texas will continue to drift east in the coming days, driving temperatures up further and locking in place the hot and mostly dry pattern throughout most of this forecast period. Dew points spiking back into the low to mid 70s will make it feel anywhere from 5 to 10 degrees warmer, hence the issuance of a Heat Advisory which will be in effect from 11 AM to 8 PM Tuesday, with further extensions likely and upgrades possible. A sliver of our southernmost zones in deep east Texas may see some very isolated storms tomorrow afternoon, but these chances are slight to begin with, and may be inhibited altogether by the effects of the ridging.
Upper troughing over the region will promote onshore flow and cooler temperatures through Tuesday.
708 PM EDT Mon Aug 12 2024 - Warmer temperatures through this week. Another cool night expected, with lows dropping well into the 50s inland, perhaps upper 40s in the typical cooler locales. With basically minimal northerly flow, will see some lake breezes develop again, though as moisture is somewhat limited in the low levels, this may not be enough to generate sufficient instability to offset 500mb height rises and warm air advection aloft.
649 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 (This evening through Tuesday) Hot and dry conditions will continue across West Central Texas through the next 24 hours as an upper level ridge continues to dominate our weather.
An upper trough over the Pacific Northwest brought cooler temperatures to the area. with most locations currently running between 5 and 10 degrees cooler compared to yesterday at this time.
00Z Aviation Discussion Showers and storms will be again be possible this afternoon and evening, but activity will mainly favor the higher terrain locations. Moisture looks to rebound slightly by the end of the workweek and heading into the weekend leading to storm chances returning to the region, mainly for the higher terrain locations. Latest Hi-Res, continues the focus on the higher terrain and into SE AZ with initiation. Otherwise, current troughing across the Pacific Northwest moving into the northern Rockies will begin to flatten upper heights in our region, making that transition from a moist southerly flow to a dry west/northwest flow by the middle of the week. Some lingering storms in the eastern 3rd of AZ for Tuesday, but dry conditions look to settle in for Wed/Thu as ridge axis shifts to the south of the area cutting off moisture.
Daytime temperatures will begin the week slightly warmer than normal but should drop to average or slightly below by midweek.
1035 PM EDT Mon Aug 12 2024 High pressure starts the work week dry and cool. Surface maps suggest high pressure in control for the most part tonight and Tuesday, providing dry weather. Near normal temperatures are anticipated tonight, generally in the lower 60s lowlands, ranging into the lower 50s northeast mountains. High on Tuesday should be warmer than previous days but still about normal, generally in the mid 80s lowlands, ranging into the mid 60s northeast mountains. Area will be in NW flow aloft between building ridge across midwest and trough along the east coast.
508 PM MDT Mon Aug 12 2024 - Warmer temps this week with daily chances for storms.
757 PM EDT Mon Aug 12 2024 High pressure starts the work week dry and cool. Surface maps suggest high pressure in control for the most part tonight and Tuesday, providing dry weather. Near normal temperatures are anticipated tonight, generally in the lower 60s lowlands, ranging into the lower 50s northeast mountains. High on Tuesday should be warmer than previous days but still about normal, generally in the mid 80s lowlands, ranging into the mid 60s northeast mountains. Area will be in NW flow aloft between building ridge across midwest and trough along the east coast.
- Temperatures trending near normal by midweek, with most in the low- mid 80s. As this wave pushes out this evening, we will start to see weak ridging and high pressure work into the area. So, we will start to see some more seasonable temperatures work in tomorrow, with much of the area in the low-mid 80s. Areas in the south may still be fighting cloud cover, which would make them slighly cooler than the remainder of the area, generally keeping them closer to 80.
(Rest of tonight) Northwest flow aloft of 20-30 knots will continue across the TN Valley overnight, as the region remains beneath the interface of a subtropical ridge centered across northeastern TX and a broad region of cyclonic flow encompassing much of eastern Canada and the northeastern CONUS. Overnight lows will be a few degrees warmer compared to last night due to clouds and a slight increase in boundary layer dewpoints, and should range from the mid 60s (NE) to upper 60s (SW).
652 PM EDT Mon Aug 12 2024 An upper level trof will exit across the Maritimes tonight.
910 PM EDT Mon Aug 12 2024 An upper level trof will exit across the Maritimes overnight.
High-resolution models show good overall agreement for tonight into Tuesday, with a low-pressure system bringing a 40-60% chance of thunderstorms. Drier and cooler conditions are expected Wednesday as the next upper- level trough develops along the Pacific Northwest.
157 AM EDT Tue Aug 13 2024 High pressure starts the work week dry and cool. After a moisture-starved mid/upper-level short wave trough brings early morning clouds, and spotty rain showers and/or sprinkles, the clouds give way to an afternoon cumulus field that will dissipate toward sunset, as high pressure regains control. Central guidance reflects highs near normal and lows still a little below normal, and the forecast reflects slightly lower lows in the cooler valleys. Area will be in NW flow aloft between building ridge across midwest and trough along the east coast.
1233 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 (This evening through Wednesday) Warm front will lift northward through Arkansas the next couple of days. South of the front, a ridge of high pressure will begin building into the region from the Gulf Coast and central/southern Plains. By the end of the period, the ridge will be over Arkansas.
(Today through Wednesday) South Florida will remain entrenched between two areas of high pressure (one over the western Atlantic, one over the Gulf of Mexico) through the short term as ridging continues to build aloft. Temperatures will continue to rise into the low to mid 90s across much of the region each afternoon.
The 00Z balloon showed 500 mb heights continue to decrease suggesting the trough axis hasn't yet passed. (This evening through Tuesday) A progressive upper level trough axis will pass across our area this afternoon, shifting east into the Central Valley later tonight. As expected, temperatures are running about 5-10 degrees cooler than normal across our locations away from the marine boundary layer influence. Marine layer stratus is mostly clearing out as the upper trough sweeps across the region. Temperatures tomorrow will be very similar to today, maybe a degree or two warmer in some spots.
238 AM EDT Tue Aug 13 2024 High pressure starts the work week dry and cool. After a moisture-starved mid/upper-level short wave trough brings early morning clouds, and spotty rain showers and/or sprinkles, the clouds give way to an afternoon cumulus field that will dissipate toward sunset, as high pressure regains control. Central guidance reflects highs near normal and lows still a little below normal, and the forecast reflects slightly lower lows in the cooler valleys.
1220 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 (This evening through Tuesday) Hot and dry conditions will continue across West Central Texas through the next 24 hours as an upper level ridge continues to dominate our weather.
Discussion: Northwesterly flow aloft caused by troughing to our northeast persists for another day today.
Warming trend continues tomorrow as ridging builds with high temperatures reaching the 90 degree mark again for the Nashville area and locations south. Last night was rather cool with 54F reported at Kingston Springs for the lowest low. Low level flow will remain light northeasterly so those dewpoints and humidity levels will remain on the low side. Temperatures will continue to undergo a warming trend with highs into the lower 90s by Wednesday. Despite the warmer temps, mid level thermals remain elevated and thus the lower surface dewpoints are preventing a return of any convective energy.
Lows will continue to drop to the mid to upper 60s through sunrise, then gradually climb today as mid to upper ridging shifts east through the Central Plains. Highs will climb into the low to mid 90s across much of the area, save for a few locations in the higher terrain of NE AL and southern middle TN. With limited moisture, expect afternoon heat indices to top out in the low to mid 90s as well.
While we still have surface ridging in place over ERN Conus, our airmass will begin to moderate through the short term as the overall ridge slowly weakens. Our upper flow will change today as the flatter ridging across the SRN US of late should get pinched between two troughs, one on each coast.
06Z Aviation Discussion Showers and storms will be again be possible this afternoon and evening, but activity will mainly favor the higher terrain locations. Moisture looks to rebound slightly by the end of the workweek and heading into the weekend leading to storm chances returning to the region, mainly for the higher terrain locations. Latest Hi-Res, continues the focus on the higher terrain and into SE AZ with initiation. Otherwise, current troughing across the Pacific Northwest moving into the northern Rockies will begin to flatten upper heights in our region, making that transition from a moist southerly flow to a dry west/northwest flow by the middle of the week. Some lingering storms in the eastern 3rd of AZ for Tuesday, but dry conditions look to settle in for Wed/Thu as ridge axis shifts to the south of the area cutting off moisture.
Based on the incoming trough, confidence is growing for a stretch of near-normal temperatures for the remainder of this week into the weekend. A trough of low pressure is moving into Northern California with a zonal flow aloft over our forecast area. High temperatures in the mid to upper-90's are on tap for today and through the next several days as the trough pattern persists along the West Coast.
The western Atlantic ridge axis remains settled across portions of the southern CWA, near Lake Okeechobee. The temperature forecast remains steady with highs in the low to mid 90s.
High temperatures Tuesday are expected to be the same to a degree or two warmer than today, but most locations will have seasonal temperatures for this time of year. An upper level trough of low pressure off the Pacific Northwest coast has broken down our hot ridge of the weekend. The trough will continue to clear out our area of any remaining monsoonal moisture. Additionally, the trough will boost onshore winds during the afternoons and nights today through Tuesday night.
In the upper levels, there is broad ridging to the west of the forecast area that is expected to move over the region within the next few days. No severe is expected at this time, but based on the low CAPE/high shear environment strong winds appear to be the primary hazard at this time. Wednesday also presents some heat concerns as an 850mb thermal ridge sets up to the west over central CONUS. The eastern-most edge of the thermal ridge is expected to encompass an area from Johnson county to Jackson county and south. Multiple chances for showers will continue through the end of the week as upper level troughing moves to the north of the region.
-Temperatures rise into the 90s Wednesday as a warm front lifts through the region. Showers and storms will are possible again across far northeast KS Tuesday night into Wednesday morning as a warm front pushes northward across the area. The window of storm potential is rather narrow as storms should rapidly move north and east of the area as the warm front progresses into Nebraska/Iowa.
Then drier air moves into the region allowing for a few slightly cooler days with only isolated showers and thunderstorms. Lows are expected to be in the lower to mid 70s. Key Message(s): - Damaging wind gusts possible Tuesday afternoon and evening Upper level pattern will gradually amplify through the short term with the trough axis digging slightly over the east coast. As the trough digs on Tuesday afternoon there will also be a short wave moving north of the area which will be a focus for convection Tuesday afternoon and evening. On Wednesday the trough will dig slightly and slide to the coast with a weak surface boundary over the southeastern Midlands and southern CSRA. High temperatures will be in the mid 80s to low 90s Tuesday and slightly cooler on Wednesday with mid to upper 80s.
Temperatures were starting out in the lower to mid 70s. Synoptically, an upper ridge will build into the MS Valley from the Srn Plains during the period. Similar conditions will be noted on Wednesday, with slightly warmer air temperatures approaching the century mark in places. A couple upper level impulses are expected to traverse around the periphery of the aforementioned ridge, bringing PoP chances to N and NE AR during the period.
(Today through Wednesday night) Currently the FA is sitting under a mid to upper level ridge with storms passing to the north in KS riding this ridge.
336 AM EDT Tue Aug 13 2024 An upper level trof will exit across the Maritimes today.
Low to medium (20-40%) rain and thunderstorm chances remain in the forecast today as a moist airmass combines with a passing mid level disturbance on the southwestern periphery of the high to spark some shower activity.
(Today through Wednesday) Key Messages: - Elevated Heat Indices for Today and Tomorrow - Mostly rain-free conditions The mid-level ridge remains in place over Northern and Central Texas with its influence affecting Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley through the short term forecast. Maximum heat indices for this afternoon are expected to be around 111, but the current train of thought is that the heat indices will not be this high for very long. As for the actual temperatures, the high temperatures for today and tomorrow are expected to be mostly in the triple digits with areas along the coast in the upper 90s. However, the low temperatures for tonight are expected to be generally in the 70s with a few places getting into the low 80s.
The highest chances should lay over central and northern portions of the Sunshine State, especially in the afternoon. During the second half of the week and into the weekend, an upper level trough moving into the Northeast pushes a weak boundary across the state.
Lows tonight fairly normal, if not 1-2 deg above climatology, in the lower to mid 70s. A frontal boundary will sink south across forecast area Tuesday night, then push to the south Wednesday, as high pressure builds down the east coast.
/Issued 1155 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024/ /Through Wednesday/ Satellite imagery reveals anticyclonic flow across North Texas and the Southern Plains associated with a mid level ridge positioned overhead. Active weather on the northern periphery of the ridge will remain well north of the region, keeping North and Central Texas hot and rain-free through at least midweek. Triple digit highs and heat indices of 105+ will be common, warranting a Heat Advisory for all but the Colorado River counties (where slightly cooler and drier air will be). A gulf breeze might bring some minor relief to the southeast counties each afternoon, but any convection associated with it will be shut down by the ridge prior to reaching any of the Central Texas zones.
(Today and tonight) The upper-level ridge will sit over our area for much of the day before sliding more to the east this evening and overnight. Temperatures tonight will remain on the warmer side, thanks to the low level jet keeping winds a tad higher, limiting radiational cooling.
Large area of strong high pressure remains centered over the Upper providing clear skies and light/calm winds. Expect another warm mid August day across our Northwoods with afternoon highs mainly in the lower 80s. PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: Broad pattern across the CONUS has departing troughing over the eastern US, southern stream ridge axis stretching from the Lower MS Valley up through the western Plains into Canada. Warmer yesterday with temps much closer to normal as 850mb temps rose above 10C again.
Bottom line, upper-level ridging will continue to build into our region this week, prompting only warmer and warmer temperatures. There is a non zero chance for some thunderstorm development across our far southern zones this afternoon, but any QPF amounts will be on the lower side.
1047 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 (Rest of tonight) Northwest flow aloft of 20-30 knots will continue across the TN Valley overnight, as the region remains beneath the interface of a subtropical ridge centered across northeastern TX and a broad region of cyclonic flow encompassing much of eastern Canada and the northeastern CONUS. Overnight lows will be a few degrees warmer compared to last night due to clouds and a slight increase in boundary layer dewpoints, and should range from the mid 60s (NE) to upper 60s (SW).
(Today through Wednesday) An inverted trough currently over the Coastal Plains moves over our area to the Rio Grande today, then lingers there on Wednesday while the Subtropical Ridge axis remains to our northeast. Forcing by heating, trough, and seabreeze should generate isolated showers and thunderstorms each afternoon mainly near the Coastal Plains.
1209 AM EDT Tue Aug 13 2024 An upper level trof will exit across the Maritimes overnight.
(Today through Wednesday Night) Ridging will continue to dominate area wx with hot & humid conditions prevailing.
Building high pressure with cooler, drier air should lead to rain-free week before it shifts offshore this weekend. A slow propagation of high pressure could maintain a slight chance of showers along the coast on Wednesday, but models are gradually decreasing this chance over the last several days, and punch of the upper trough should allow this trend to continue.
After a few showers Wednesday, a gradual drying trend will begin as high pressure builds in. Cooler, drier air should lead to rain-free end of the week before the high shifts offshore this weekend. Stronger wind profiles will mean flash flooding is less likely, however the higher deep layer SPC has SC in a Marginal Risk (threat level 1 of 5) of severe storms. Mid/upper trough axis will be oriented along the eastern US coast Wednesday morning. At the surface, the cold front is expected to be just south of the area, with northeast flow veering to the east through the day.
With dewpoint temperatures hovering in the low/mid 70s we could see heat indices around 105 in parts of south central Kansas and a heat advisory will be issued for a part of south central Kansas this afternoon. The mid/upper ridge is progged to amplify Fri-Mon resulting in mostly dry weather conditions and rising temperatures once again.
The main change with this update was adding patchy fog for most of the lower elevations. Temperatures increase into the low to mid 70s for Tuesday. High pressure will dominate the weather pattern through this period, with mostly dry and seasonable conditions.
An expansive ridge extending from the North Atlantic still has a weak grip on the region and is maintaining gentle to occasionally moderate winds within the forecast area. While dew points in most island communities are still in the upper 70s, at least the Lower Keys are seeing somewhat unusual summertime dew points in the lower 70s. The aforementioned ridge will gradually recede as an upper-level trough swings across the Eastern Seaboard over the next few days. This trough will become the new steering mechanism for Tropical Storm Ernesto, and will drive the storm northward well east of the Bahamas and away from the U.
Otherwise, high pressure will persist through Wednesday night. While dry air will remain in place in the low levels, likely keeping most precipitation very light (sprinkles), it is not out of the question that a few locations could get a bit of measurable rainfall. Lows will generally be in the lower 60s. Highs will be in the lower 80s and lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s.
Efficient mixing each afternoon will keep dewpoints on the lower side for this time of the year, with dewpoints mainly in the 50s. High pressure will dominate the weather pattern through this period, with mostly dry and seasonable conditions.
Otherwise, high pressure will persist through Wednesday night offering dry weather. Highs will be in the lower 80s and middle 80s. Mid level ridge axis over the MS Valley to nudge a little east Wednesday offering height/thickness rises. High temperatures to range from the lower 80s northwest to the upper 80s southeast. Aloft, troughing will be in place over the northeastern coast, with a somewhat-muted area of ridging beginning to build into the Ohio Valley from the southwest.
Thus with continuance of broad low level atmospheric ridging influences across most of eastern CONUS that will slowly be shifting eastward, with initial dry northwesterly flow aloft being ushered eastward also with building upper level ridging influences replacing it, dry conditions should prevail across most of mid state region through Wednesday afternoon.
Temperatures will continue to be hot and muggy, with afternoon highs in the low to mid 90s and peak heat indices of 104-107 degrees.
617 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 (Today through Wednesday night) Currently the FA is sitting under a mid to upper level ridge with storms passing to the north in KS riding this ridge.