Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1234 PM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025 - High temperatures in the low and mid 90's are expected to remain in place through the end of the week. Through the next 7 days, temperatures will gradually dip from the mid and upper 90's, back towards the low and mid 90's as the upper ridge breaks down through mid-week. At the same time, diurnally driven showers and storms will be in the cards through the week, with increasing PoPs by the back half of the period as trapped upper troughing across the PNW spills southward.
A broader troughing pattern from the northeast Pacific may then bring increasing rain chances into the weekend. Elevated fire weather conditions will accompany the warm, dry, and breezy pattern, through the strongest winds should precede the lowest daytime humidities, reducing overlap of critical thresholds.
A line of showers and storms has developed across portions of southeast MN and northeast IA from a resultant axis of 850mb moisture transport along with some convergence in the low- levels. Regardless, the general convective trend expected over the coming hours would observe a slow weakening trend as diurnal mixing will aid in drying out the low-levels. Summertime Warmth through Midweek A blocking weather pattern lingers across the central CONUS through much of the week, resulting in little change in our summertime airmass over the next few days.
1126 AM MDT Mon Sep 15 2025 - Warmer and drier today, with only a slight chance of a weak afternoon shower or thunderstorm.
Otherwise, mostly sunny conditions should prevail with highs reaching the mid 80s to low 90s under the influence of an upper level ridge. Tonight, temperatures are forecast to drop into the low to mid 60s with dry conditions.
125 PM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025 - High temperatures in the low and mid 90's are expected to remain in place through the end of the week. Through the next 7 days, temperatures will gradually dip from the mid and upper 90's, back towards the low and mid 90's as the upper ridge breaks down through mid-week. At the same time, diurnally driven showers and storms will be in the cards through the week, with increasing PoPs by the back half of the period as trapped upper troughing across the PNW spills southward.
Upper level ridge centered over the Central Great Lakes will continue to hold over the next couple days. 12z DTX sounding indicated a similar profile to yesterday, and thus no surprise max temps are/or will be back into the lower 80s.
Our forecast area will remain on the backside of these troughs, keeping persistent northwesterly to westerly flow aloft in place through the weekend. Afternoon highs each afternoon top out in the lower 90's for most locations each day. Overnight lows cool into the lower to middle 60's most nights, perhaps warming a degree or two this weekend.
- Upper low over the southeastern US will help keep cloud cover in place through the midweek. - Temperatures should hold steady in the low 90s through the forecast period.
CONUS water vapor imagery overlaid with 500 MB RAP analysis shows an amplified pattern featuring mid/upper ridges, troughs, and lows. SE Texas remains under a ridge axis.
One mid/upper low is located over north central ND that is responsible for scattered showers/isolated thunderstorms this afternoon/evening.
Aloft, a closed low may bring some slight rain chances for Tuesday across the northern forecast area. Key message(s): - Upper low remains over the area. Key message(s): - Upper low to continue meandering to the northeast, with lower rain chances than were previously expected. Guidance has continued to trend drier with the upper low and its associated surface counter part on Tuesday. Models have consistently showing the low tracking into the outer banks, with the best moisture advection confined to North Carolina and Virginia now. Highs should range from the low to mid 80s regionally. Overnight lows will likely end up where they have been - in the low 60s. Key message(s): - A return to ridging aloft and warming temps through the weekend.
205 PM MDT Mon Sep 15 2025 - Weak cool front brings gusty showers/storms through tonight - Upper low drops into the northern Plains for the rest of the week with a cooling trend and good chances for precipitation - Generally drier and warmer weather expected for the weekend 19z surface analysis had weak cool front from ND into northern ID. Water vapour loop had an upper low over southwest MT. Tuesday, cool front hangs up over south-central SD as upper low saunters into WY.
- Seasonable temperatures are expected this week, with the first half being warmer than the second half. After which, models are in fair agreement that upper low pressure will churn over the Central and Northern Plains to finish out the week.
237 PM EDT Mon Sep 15 2025 Dry weather with temperatures near or just warmer than average through mid week.
Drier air continues to sit over the area giving us quiet and slightly cooler weather especially north of I-4. While the the northern area of our CWA has drier air, less rain, and slightly cooler air.
Breezes will start to freshen overnight as low pressure off of the Carolinas trudges north allowing the Atlantic high to nose back in. Weak undulations of this feature while it interacts with high pressure to its immediate north will result in a low confidence forecast for winds and rain chances. Gentle to moderate northeast to east breezes are expected to build in by Tuesday afternoon or night, as the axis of the high pressure finally is able to spread down closer to the Keys marine zones.
Aside from isolated (10-20%) rain chances over the higher terrain west of the Pecos River, dry conditions are expected for most Tuesday.
S as the large high pressure ridge continues to dominate the weather pattern down the eastern seaboard. There is also a closed low center spinning off the Carolina coast. This low center is expected to move onshore late tonight near the Nags Head, NC region and stay over eastern NC Tuesday. This low will pull in some moisture around its backside that will push into NE GA Tonight into Tuesday. With the ridge in place only expecting increased clouds across North and portions of central GA but there is a very small chance we see and isolated shower or two through Tuesday evening. This low center moves NE Tue night into Wed. Afternoon highs will peak in the mid 80s to near 90 with morning lows in the lower to mid 60s.
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Multiple low pressure systems in the region are keeping precipitation chances elevated across NE MT, but coverage remains spotty and the forcing is relatively weak. DISCUSSION: Unsettled weather pattern with multiple low pressure systems in the region will keep the threat around for scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms through this TAF cycle.
- A cooler and wetter pattern arrives mid-week Early this afternoon skies were nearly clear all over the fcst areas. Temps were in the 70s with some 80s over the plains and 50s and 60s over the higher terrain. Min temps tonight should run about 4 to 8F warmer than this mornings lows. Another very warm day likely across the region in advance of a cold front that will push into the region late in the day.
This will thus result in cooler temperatures (mainly in the 70s) near the Lake Michigan lakeshore. While quiet and dry weather will persist in this blocked pattern through the rest of the work week, this pattern will begin to break late in the week as a western trough (and/or potential cut- off low) begins to slide eastward towards the Great Lakes. This will also be paired with cooler more seasonable temperatures in the 70s. KJB No significant weather concerns through the period as high pressure remains in control.
It will take until the end of the week for additional Pacific energy to break things down and push the upper ridge eastward. And this is what will eventually bring the Great Lakes cooler temperatures and better chances of rain. Coastal areas will be cooler with afternoon lake breeze development. Moisture to our west will try to make a push toward the Great Lakes later in the week with a breakdown in the upper ridge, only to be temporarily shunted west again by Canadian high pressure slipping southward into Ontario.
227 PM EDT Mon Sep 15 2025 High pressure will continue to bring warming temperatures and dry weather conditions to the region this week.
The forecast area will remain on the western periphery of a closed low pressure system centered over eastern North Carolina into Tuesday. That said, with clouds lingering overnight and again on Tuesday, lows tonight will fall into the middle 60s to lower 70s and highs Tuesday into climbing into the low to middle 90s.
(Tonight) Dry weather will continue this afternoon as an upper level ridge continues to try to shift eastward into our area. Overnight, lows are forecast to drop into the low to mid 60s under mostly clear skies.
Deep South Texas will remain in an unsettled weather pattern throughout the week, as weak disturbances translate along the eastern periphery of ridging aloft and interact with favorable moisture content and the sea breeze.
- Cooler air moves back in for the late week. The ridge continues to get squeezed over the Great Lakes and a closed high has developed overhead. A trough was over the western U. S with two upper level low pressures, one over North Dakota and the other over the Idaho Panhandle and western Montana. Yet another upper level low was over northern Saskatchewan ahead of a stronger low over the Gulf of Alaska. With light southerly flow suspect that fog is less likely in the lower elevations along Lake Superior and the western U.
An ongoing cloud line off the north side of the Lower and Middle Keys may spark some convection near either terminal, but amendments will be used to express specific impacts. Breezes will start to freshen overnight as low pressure off of the Carolinas trudges north allowing the Atlantic high to nose back in. GOES-19 Satellite analysis still shows an area of low pressure just offshore of the Carolina coast with a deep trough draped over the region. Even though we are still situated at the base of this trough, the low will gradually push north to northeastward over the next few days, and the front will be allowed to retrograde and make a return to southern Florida.
- Scattered storms are possible on Tuesday as a cold front tracks across the north. Coverage of showers increases tonight into tomorrow as a closed low pressure system tracks over Wyoming and associated cool front through the area Tuesday afternoon and evening. Coverage of showers and storms looks more scattered with the higher terrain being favored but some lower valleys across the north and west-central Colorado could see isolated coverage.
- Increasing rain chances for Fri/weekend as upper level low moves in.
* Temperatures will be unseasonably warm with highs in the upper 80s to the lower 90s. In the upper levels, an Omega Block remains in place with ridging centered over the Midwest and Great Lakes. The ridge aloft is being squeezed by an upper level trough over ND/MN and a closed low over the Carolinas. The mid/upper level ridge centered just off to the north will continue to exert its influence through the short term period. Tonight, skies will be partly cloudy with just some thin cirrus streaming west from the upper low over the Carolinas.
Highs today are expected to be 5 to 10 degrees warmer than yesterday for valley locations and a few degrees warmer than yesterday elsewhere. By Tuesday the coast and valleys will be running 5 to 10 degrees above average for this time of year with the mountains and deserts only 3 to 5 degrees warmer than average. Mid to upper level moisture from Tropical Storm Mario is expected to become entrained in an upper level area of low pressure off the coast of Southern California as early as Tuesday. 75 inches per hour, with most of the coverage on the mountain ridges and desert slopes.
147 PM EDT Mon Sep 15 2025 High pressure will keep our weather dry through this evening.
101 PM EDT Mon Sep 15 2025 High pressure will support a continuation of the dry weather pattern through the week, along with more above-normal temperatures.
High pressure over the region with a warm and dry conditions through the work week. Monday afternoon through Tuesday: As an upper-level ridge of high pressure continues to build over the Inland Northwest, clouds will clear from west to east and lingering showers over North ID will subside.
High pressure over the Southwest will result in seasonable temperatures and mostly dry conditions through the next few days. The weather pattern early this week will be dominated by weak high pressure aloft resulting in mostly dry conditions and seasonal temperatures.
A storm system will meander across northern Utah through Tuesday, bringing cooler temperatures with scattered showers and thunderstorms.
This will thus result in cooler temperatures (mainly in the 70s) near the Lake Michigan lakeshore. While quiet and dry weather will persist in this blocked pattern through the rest of the work week, this pattern will begin to break late in the week as a western trough (and/or potential cut- off low) begins to slide eastward towards the Great Lakes. This will also be paired with cooler more seasonable temperatures in the 70s.
604 PM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025 - Upper low over the southeastern US will help keep cloud cover in place through the midweek. - Temperatures should hold steady in the low 90s through the forecast period.
544 PM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025 (Tonight) Dry weather will continue this afternoon as an upper level ridge continues to try to shift eastward into our area. Overnight, lows are forecast to drop into the low to mid 60s under mostly clear skies.
Conditions will be very similar tomorrow as we remain in a blocking pattern between the low to our east and ridging to our west. Ridging will support mostly sunny and hot conditions with temps in the high 80s and low 90s.
pdf Weak high pressure with dry airmass will remain in place through Tonight. Cooler than normal lows are forecast, with a dry and mainly clear night. Due to the cooler air, could see a little fog develop inland near waterways and more marshy areas.
728 PM EDT Mon Sep 15 2025 Dry weather with temperatures near or just warmer than average through mid week.
926 PM EDT Mon Sep 15 2025 High pressure will keep our weather dry through this evening.
* Temperatures will be unseasonably warm with highs in the upper 80s to the lower 90s. Temps look to fall into the low and mid 60s under good radiational cooling conditions. In the upper levels, an Omega Block remains in place with ridging centered over the Midwest and Great Lakes. The ridge aloft is being squeezed by an upper level trough over ND/MN and a closed low over the Carolinas. The mid/upper level ridge centered just off to the north will continue to exert its influence through the short term period. Tonight, skies will be partly cloudy with just some thin cirrus streaming west from the upper low over the Carolinas.
755 PM EDT Mon Sep 15 2025 High pressure will continue to bring warming temperatures and dry weather conditions to the region this week.
624 PM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025 - Seasonably hot weather will continue this week with afternoon highs in the lower to mid 90s.
- Seasonable temperatures are expected this week, with the first half being warmer than the second half. Showers with a few thunderstorms continue over northwest, west central, and north central North Dakota wrapping around in the cyclonic flow with the upper low centered along the Manitoba/Saskatchewan border. After which, models are in fair agreement that upper low pressure will churn over the Central and Northern Plains to finish out the week.
611 PM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025 Deep South Texas will remain in an unsettled weather pattern throughout the week, as weak disturbances translate along the eastern periphery of ridging aloft and interact with favorable moisture content and the sea breeze.
822 PM EDT Mon Sep 15 2025 High pressure will support a continuation of the dry weather pattern through the week, along with more above-normal temperatures.
Temperatures along the Island Chain are in the lower to mid 80s with dew points in the mid to upper 70s. The Keys remain in very weak flow with the closest synoptic feature being a low pressure system off the coast of North Carolina. Weak undulations of this feature while it interacts with high pressure to its immediate north will result in a low confidence forecast for winds and rain chances. Gentle to moderate northeast to east breezes are expected to build in by Tuesday afternoon or night, as the axis of the high pressure finally is able to spread down closer to the Keys marine zones.
708 PM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025 - High temperatures in the low and mid 90's are expected to remain in place through the end of the week. Through the next 7 days, temperatures will gradually dip from the mid and upper 90's, back towards the low and mid 90's as the upper ridge breaks down through mid-week. At the same time, diurnally driven showers and storms will be in the cards through the week, with increasing PoPs by the back half of the period as trapped upper troughing across the PNW spills southward.
543 PM MDT Mon Sep 15 2025 - Weak cool front brings gusty showers/storms through tonight - Upper low drops into the northern Plains for the rest of the week with a cooling trend and good chances for precipitation - Generally drier and warmer weather expected for the weekend 19z surface analysis had weak cool front from ND into northern ID. Water vapour loop had an upper low over southwest MT. Tuesday, cool front hangs up over south-central SD as upper low saunters into WY.
Mostly clear to partly cloudy skies tonight with lows from the mid to upper 60s north to the lower to mid 70s central and south. Drier air continues to sit over the area giving us quiet and slightly cooler weather especially north of I-4. While the the northern area of our CWA has drier air, less rain, and slightly cooler air.
NE wind off Canadian/northern Lower Mi high pressure is funneling in from Saginaw Bay just enough to keep the wind around 5 knots at MBS heading into the late night, but with a less reliable guidance signal of persistence through sunrise. Upper level ridge centered over the Central Great Lakes will continue to hold over the next couple days. 12z DTX sounding indicated a similar profile to yesterday, and thus no surprise max temps are/or will be back into the lower 80s.
229 AM EDT Tue Sep 16 2025 High pressure will continue to bring warming temperatures and dry weather conditions to the region this week.
This will thus result in cooler temperatures (mainly in the 70s) near the Lake Michigan lakeshore. While quiet and dry weather will persist in this blocked pattern through the rest of the work week, this pattern will begin to break late in the week as a western trough (and/or potential cut- off low) begins to slide eastward towards the Great Lakes. This will also be paired with cooler more seasonable temperatures in the 70s. KJB No major forecast concerns are expected through the TAF period as high pressure remains overhead. That said, did add a TEMPO at GYY for some 5SM BR given the low temp-dew point depression here and some fog being noted in Lake County, IN.
- Moisture aloft rotating around an upper low over the southeastern US, along with daytime heating, will result in isolated to scattered afternoon showers today. - Temperatures should hold steady in the low 90s through the forecast period.
115 AM EDT Tue Sep 16 2025 High pressure will extend across the region. Low pressure will meander near the North Carolina Outer Banks through the middle of the week. A cold front could approach from the north early in the weekend. The synoptic pattern has changed little over the past 24 hours with a pseudo rex block in place across the eastern CONUS and ~1008 mb non-tropical low pressure located about 100 mi east of Cape Hatteras. This will allow the upper low positioned over the Carolinas to meander north into the Virginia Tidewater tonight. Conditions will remain rain-free across the Lowcountry and Southeast Georgia through tonight. The beaches will remain a tad cooler in the lower 80s.
As one upper low sits over central Manitoba ealry this morning, there is one upstream moving south-southeast thru northweset Saskatchewan and another upper low over northwest Wyoming. The upper low in Wyoming is bringing southwest flow aloft into southern ND early this morning along with a not well forecasted short wave that is south of Bismarck. For the rest of the week, precipitation chances will depend on position, development of upper low as models move the Wyoming low into South Dakota.
Aloft, a closed low may bring some slight rain chances for Tuesday across the northern forecast area. Skies should become mostly clear overnight as the low moves further away from the region with rising 500mb heights.
High pressure over the region with a warm and dry conditions through the work week.
- Seasonable temperatures are expected this week, with the first half being warmer than the second half. UPDATE Showers with a few thunderstorms continue over northwest, west central, and north central North Dakota wrapping around in the cyclonic flow with the upper low centered along the Manitoba/Saskatchewan border. After which, models are in fair agreement that upper low pressure will churn over the Central and Northern Plains to finish out the week.
132 AM EDT Tue Sep 16 2025 Dry weather with temperatures near or just warmer than average through mid week.
144 AM EDT Tue Sep 16 2025 High pressure will continue to bring warming temperatures and dry weather conditions to the region this week.
This will be due to more robust PW values interacting with daytime heating, the east-to-west migration of the daytime seabreeze boundary, and a series of disturbances that will "ridge ride" 500 mb high pressure centered more or less over northwest Mexico. Finally, with continued slightly elevated seas, a Moderate Risk of rip currents is likely for the beaches along the Lower Texas Coast. Generally moderate winds and seas are forecast for the lower Texas coastal waters, with Small Craft Should Exercise Caution and Small Craft Advisory not likely to be needed.
Relatively dry and warm weather conditions continue through most of the workweek as the region continues under the influence of the high pressure. Ridging aloft slowly weakens after mid-week as a mid to upper level trough across the central Rockies continues to move over the Plains. This trough will eject different vort maxes and a surface cold front that will be extended along the central and southern Plains.
This will thus result in cooler temperatures (mainly in the 70s) near the Lake Michigan lakeshore. While quiet and dry weather will persist in this blocked pattern through the rest of the work week, the upper level ridge begins to break down heading into the weekend as a western trough (and/or potential cut-off low) begins to slide eastward towards the Great Lakes. Petr/KJB No major forecast concerns are expected through the TAF period as high pressure remains overhead. That said, did add a TEMPO at GYY for some 5SM BR given the low temp-dew point depression here and some fog being noted in Lake County, IN.
- Minimal rain chances through the rest of the week before we turn cooler with better rain chances by the weekend. Pattern Synopsis: Rex blocking regime well underway with northern Michigan firmly beneath a cutoff area of ridging above a trough over the southeastern CONUS, with other areas of disorganized troughing over the Plains.
* Temperatures will be unseasonably warm with highs in the upper 80s to the lower 90s. Today features a Rex block pattern over the eastern US, with an upper ridge over the Great Lakes and an upper low over the Carolinas. Moisture associated with the low will shift slightly west today, and we'll see an increase in upper level cloud cover as a result.