Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Expect increasing cloudiness this afternoon as low pressure deepens over Colorado. A warm front will strengthen northern MO later tonight, with overrunning precipitation develolping along and north of that boundary. High temperatures will have a wide range from north to south, with northern MO locations likely holding in the low to mid 40s and central MO getting into the mid 60s.
Latest guidance indicates more northward movement where the airmass under arctic high pressure is not quite as dry as initially expected. On the plus side, once the precipitation exits Friday morning, skies will clear under dry high pressure, and temperatures are forecast to rise into the 40s. The rest of the region looks to stay dry through Friday night with weak high pressure dominating.
pdf Winds across the area will continue to diminish through the overnight hours as high pressure builds overhead.
A weather system will move across the area today and Friday bringing breezy to windy southwest winds, cooler temperatures, and better precipitation chances, especially on Friday. The upcoming weekend looks dry with warmer temperatures. Today's immediate forecast focus has been centered on blustery conditions across the forecast area as a cold front has been making its way across southeast Arizona. A band of clouds and very light precipitation associated with the cold frontal band quickly made its way through the area late this morning. After midnight, precipitation chances increase again areawide associated with another reinforcing cold frontal band which is expected to pass through the area tomorrow morning. Much needed valley rainfall is also expected with the highest amounts forecast to occur across southeast Pinal county where there is a 30 to 40 percent chance of exceeding 0.
925 PM EST Thu Mar 6 2025 Gusty winds will continue through tonight between low pressure departing to the north and high pressure building in from the west.
342 PM CST Thu Mar 6 2025 - A cold front will pass across Kansas Friday, resulting in strong north winds and cooler temperatures.
The trend of increasing warm and moist air advection will continue into Friday as a warm front lifts back eastward from the Southern Plains across the Ozark Plateau. Meanwhile, a cold front will begin to sweep eastward from the TX/OK Panhandle region into the Southern Plains during the day on Friday with increasing S/SW winds across our region. By sunset Friday evening, the cold front will be encroaching on our NW zones as the associated upper-level trough slowly ejects eastward from the Four-Corners region across the Southern Rockies. Despite its low amplitude, the trough will result in large scale ascent across our NW half by Friday night with scattered showers beginning to developing across our NW half zones after midnight.
Dry conditions are expected across western Washington through Friday as an upper level ridge moves over the area.
Expect increasing cloudiness this afternoon as low pressure deepens over Colorado. A warm front will strengthen northern MO later tonight, with overrunning precipitation developing along and north of that boundary. High temperatures will have a wide range from north to south, with northern MO locations likely holding in the low to mid 40s and central MO getting into the mid 60s.
Tonight, high pressure builds directly over the FL peninsula with below normal low temperatures in the mid/upper 30s inland to low 40s along the St.
515 PM CST Thu Mar 6 2025 - A cold front will pass across Kansas Friday, resulting in strong north winds and cooler temperatures.
743 PM EST Thu Mar 6 2025 High pressure to our west will move across the Carolinas Friday, then offshore Friday night.
As we move into tomorrow and the weekend, we can expect dry weather and a warming trend as a high pressure ridge builds into California and Nevada.
829 PM EST Thu Mar 6 2025 High pressure will build eastward and over the region tonight into Friday.
Discussion: Near zonal upper level flow from a mild mannered upper tropospheric ridge today. Closer to the surface, a decaying low pressure system will be crossing the Midwestern US diving towards us as it fills in and eventually dissipates.
356 AM EST Fri Mar 7 2025 An area of low pressure over Kansas will move east and into the Ohio Valley by tonight.
132 AM MST Fri Mar 7 2025 KEY MESSAGES: - A ridge builds over the region for a mix of sun and clouds this weekend. Drier air is moving into the region, as evident on water vapor satellite imagery, in association with a building ridge of high pressure.
1049 PM CST Thu Mar 6 2025 - A cold front will pass across Kansas Friday, resulting in strong north winds and cooler temperatures.
Winds across the area will continue to diminish through the overnight hours as high pressure builds overhead.
(Tonight) At 00Z, a ridge of high pressure at the surface was located in a north-south fashion from IN through AL. High clouds are spilling over an upper ridge to our west, and will tend to increase overnight. This should keep most areas above freezing, except for a few eastern valleys.
1039 PM CST Thu Mar 6 2025 (Tonight) At 00Z, a ridge of high pressure at the surface was located in a north-south fashion from IN through AL. High clouds are spilling over an upper ridge to our west, and will tend to increase overnight. This should keep most areas above freezing, except for a few eastern valleys.
Quick update tonight to cancel the Winter Weather Advisories further north where snow has subsided but have kept the remaining headlines in place overnight to capture light additional snow and possible slick roads due to wet roads freezing.
Flurries have developed over the central part of our CWA (centered on the Lower Treasure Valley), so we have done a minor update to add flurries there. Isolated snow showers and mountain obscuration over the higher terrain of SW Idaho tonight. VFR area-wide with high pressure.
233 AM CST Fri Mar 7 2025 Today and Tonight: Temperatures this morning are running ~ 5-7 degrees F warmer than last night with cloud cover increasing which should preclude widespread frost across the area. These southerlies will also yield increasing humidity ahead of a cold front sinking toward the area overnight resulting in mild lows in the 50s F tonight under cloudy skies.
1249 AM EST Fri Mar 7 2025 High pressure to our west will move across the Carolinas Friday, then offshore Friday night.
945 PM CST Thu Mar 6 2025 - Warmer temperatures today and Friday, then considerably cooler over the weekend.
210 AM EST Fri Mar 7 2025 High pressure will build eastward and over the region tonight into Friday.
Relatively cooler and drier conditions have continued this evening as we are still post-frontal along the Florida Keys. Looking at the 00Z sounding from this evening, there is a fairly deep inversion in the lower levels, so this is likely what the radar is picking up on.
349 AM EST Fri Mar 7 2025 Weak high pressure will build over the area today.
- Dry and warmer conditions arrive for the weekend, with daytime high temperatures returning to seasonal levels. An additional 1 to 2 inches of snow will fall through 12Z across most areas, with Natrona/Johnson counties receiving the higher end of these totals. Any snowfall this afternoon is expected to remain in the mountains, however if the sun is able to peak through the clouds this afternoon there could be a stray snow shower in the lower elevations. Dry conditions will then be in place Friday night, as a ridge begins to fold over the Northern Rockies.
215 AM CST Fri Mar 7 2025 Updated at 215 AM CST Fri Mar 7 2025 - Warmer conditions are expected today, with high temperatures in the 60s to low 70s.
- Warmer temperatures today, then considerably cooler over the weekend.
Dry conditions are expected across western Washington through Friday as an upper level ridge moves over the area. The ridge will push further inland on Saturday, allowing for a weather system moving into British Columbia to brush the northwest tier of Washington over the weekend.
Upper ridging over the PacNW will push into the region for the weekend.
Band of mid level clouds continue to push towards the Highway 2 corridor, although most of the flurries seem to have disappeared.
- Dry and warmer conditions arrive for the weekend, with daytime high temperatures returning to seasonal levels.
Temperatures (both highs and lows) will be noticeably warmer through this period as well.
This is expected to kick down a dry cold front Saturday creating critical fire weather conditions across the Brush Country and Rio Grande Plains. Temperatures tomorrow will be slightly cooler compared to Friday with highs only topping out around 90. Fog development will be likely this evening into tonight ahead of the cold front mainly along Coastal Bend and in the nearshore,offshore, and bays.
A cold front and associated stratus will surge southeast through the entire area will bring cooler temperatures to north-central Kansas but east-central Kansas may still see mid to upper 50s this afternoon.
548 AM CST Fri Mar 7 2025 (Friday through Saturday) Upper-air analysis this morning features some weak ridging over our area with an area low pressure developing over southern California. At the surface, low pressure is currently centered over eastern Colorado/western Kansas with a cold front trailing southward through west Texas and a warm front across western Oklahoma and central Texas. Highs today will range from the lower to mid-70s across the region, mainly driven by WAA. The cold front will begin to approach the area from the northwest, accompanied with an upper-level trough, later this evening and into the overnight hours.
KEY MESSAGES: - Breezy conditions slowly diminish this afternoon - Dry weather continues through most of today with near-average temperature ------------------------------------------------------------------- Brief surface ridging has helped to erode most area clouds, save for lingering stratocu across FKL/DUJ and along the Allegheny Mtns.
High pressure centered over Florida moves eastward and will produce sunny skies and lighter winds and abating seas today and Saturday.
Ice jams will also be possible due to warmer temperatures and snowmelt runoff.
Otherwise, skies will gradually clear today and kick off several days of sunny, quiet, low-impact weather under high pressure, with a gradual warming trend especially beyond Saturday!.
519 AM CST Fri Mar 7 2025 Updated at 512 AM CST Fri Mar 7 2025 - Warmer conditions are expected today, with high temperatures in the 60s to low 70s.
601 AM EST Fri Mar 7 2025 (Today through Saturday) Fair weather and warming conditions are forecast as we head into the weekend and high pressure builds in from the Gulf. Weak ridging aloft and a deep layer of dry air will remain over the region, with the resulting subsidence keeping chances for rain below 10%.
An upper level short wave trough across the mid MS Valley will continue to get sheared out and weakened across the southern Great Lakes this evening under the influence of a strong deformation zone. Seasonable temperatures are expected on Saturday as western extent of low level thermal troughing lingers across the region.
It will be dry and milder this afternoon with the low clouds in the Umpqua Basin burning off late this morning with clear skies the rest of the day.
High pressure to the east results in a southerly component in the winds generally 5 to 15 kts this afternoon. Upstream, an upper trof over the Four Corners of the Desert Southwest will be slow to move through tonight. Within the flow aloft, a series of mid-level impulses will eject eastward out of the base of the mean trof position. The front begins to stall over the forecast area Saturday with a wave of frontal low pressure developing along the front over LA Saturday evening.
Light rain will move into the area by early Saturday morning, followed by cooler temperatures. Discussion: Currently this afternoon, fairly zonal flow is in place aloft with a weak low pressure system centered over Missouri. This will also keep the focus for lingering showers across the higher terrain.
UPDATE Band of mid level clouds continue to push towards the Highway 2 corridor, although most of the flurries seem to have disappeared.
242 PM CST Fri Mar 7 2025 - Temperatures will trend warmer over the next few days, with rapid snowmelt ongoing.
1114 AM CST Fri Mar 7 2025 Updated at 1059 AM CST Fri Mar 7 2025 - Warmer conditions are expected today, with high temperatures in the 60s to low 70s.
(Through Tonight Today) Surface analysis this morning shows high pressure across much of the Southeast US. A fairly stacked low pressure system is currently sliding eastward through the Central Plains. As high pressure is forced eastward out of the region, we'll see the gradient increase and some stronger south/southwesterly winds mixing down later this afternoon. The focus for the higher end probabilities (~10%), would be on NE AL. Temps today show little spread in the envelope of outcomes - expected to top out in the mid 60s area wide, with a slightly higher probability of hitting the low 70s in NW AL. As a weak cold front approaches from the west, rain chances will gradually increase.
Above normal temps return, with afternoon highs in the low to mid 80s, except for coastal Collier where highs will only reach the upper 70s.
Persistent WAA, along with robust moisture transport, will produce noticeably warmer and more humid conditions this afternoon as surface dew points break back into the mid 60s and maximum temperatures reach the upper 70s to around 80 for most of the area. Models continue to show weak cyclogenesis to our west overnight tonight as an amplified midlevel trough digs into the Four Corners region. As this system moves off to the northeast on Saturday and drags a cold front into the area from the W/NW, rainfall chances will begin to increase.
(This afternoon through Saturday) Low and mid level flow will be from the south and southwest today and early tonight as a low pressure over the TN Valley moves to the east. There is a lot of dry air in place this afternoon, with sounds showing increasing moisture in the low levels through the early night. By mid morning, most of the activity should be south of the area, with a low pressure system developing over Texas and moving to the east through the day. With the anticipated cloud over and activity overnight, low temperatures should only drop into the upper 40s in the north and the mid 50s in the south, with high temperatures on Saturday reaching the low to mid 70s for many areas ahead of that low pressure.
Dew points remain in the mid 50s with highs already into the lower to mid 70s across the islands. Zooming out from the island chain, weak high pressure lingers over the southeastern United States. A weak low pressure system is developing over the Great Plains, currently forecast to move into the Ohio Valley, which will further weaken the pressure gradient across Florida. However, this low is not the only one present over the country. A cutoff low centered over the Four Corners region is moving east towards the Mississippi river and developing a cold front in the process, which will be making its way towards Key West late this weekend. Model ensembles continue to show increasing consensus about the aforementioned cold front.
1047 AM CST Fri Mar 7 2025 Updated at 947 AM CST Fri Mar 7 2025 - Warmer conditions are expected today, with high temperatures in the 60s to low 70s.
Tonight and Saturday Afternoon satellite imagery shows gradually clearing skies from north to south as high pressure begins to build over the area. High pressure continues into the day tomorrow with mostly sunny skies, light winds and no precipitation.
(Friday through Saturday) Upper-air analysis this morning features some weak ridging over our area with an area low pressure developing over southern California. At the surface, low pressure is currently centered over eastern Colorado/western Kansas with a cold front trailing southward through west Texas and a warm front across western Oklahoma and central Texas. Highs today will range from the lower to mid-70s across the region, mainly driven by WAA. The cold front will begin to approach the area from the northwest, accompanied with an upper-level trough, later this evening and into the overnight hours.
Overnight lows at Key West dropped into the lower 60s and thermometers in the Upper Keys measured temperatures in the upper 50s. From synopsis, breezes peaked in the early morning hours, and will lull this afternoon and evening as a high pressure system slides eastward into the North Atlantic. Breezes may briefly go variable at times over the weekend as the high bifurcates over the mainland during the day due to daytime heating.
At the surface, low pressure associated with this second disturbance has moved east over northern Kansas and into Missouri. The tight pressure gradient surrounding this feature has resulted in gusty winds so far today as a cold front made its way through the forecast area. A few flurries could also develop, though dry layers in the low/mid levels will likely preclude most of this reaching the surface.
High pressure will move eastward near the Bahamas this afternoon starting a warm up trend that will continue into the weekend.
Winds will begin to shift to NW Saturday morning as a cold front begins to push into the area and isolated SHRA can't be ruled out before sunrise.
Another mid level trough was located over Arizona this afternoon at 20Z. The mid level trough over Arizona this afternoon is forecast to move east into the southern Plains on Saturday, tracking along the Red River Saturday night.
(Through Tonight) Surface analysis this afternoon shows high pressure over the SE US being forced eastward by a fairly stacked low pressure system is currently sliding eastward through the Central Plains. The focus for the higher end probabilities (~10%), would be on NE AL. Temps today show little spread in the envelope of outcomes - expected to top out in the mid 60s area wide, with a slightly higher probability of hitting the low 70s in NW AL. As a weak cold front approaches from the west, rain chances will gradually increase.
Sky cover continues to vary as mid level clouds linger along the slow moving frontal zone, with this delineating the colder air in northeast (20s) to the warmer air to the southwest (40s). UPDATE Band of mid level clouds continue to push towards the Highway 2 corridor, although most of the flurries seem to have disappeared.
Temperatures will fall into the low-mid 20s throughout, with light winds. Tomorrow will be a beautiful day, as high pressure slowly passes through the region. The pattern will remain relatively quiet through the first half of the forecast period, as northwest flow dominates and high pressure slowly works through.
The responsible upper level ridge can be seen over the Pacific Northwest on upper level GOES water vapor. A plume of meager low level warmer air on POES is overshadowed by 90th percentile 500mb temperatures in this morning's RAOBs (SPC climatology). Not the most applicable indice but with /weaker/ low level WAA, will act to strengthen the mid/upper level ridge as it advects east through the Northern Plains.
After a chilly morning on Saturday we can expect dry and warmer days this weekend.
- An upper level disturbance and cold front will bring high chances of showers and thunderstorms Saturday.
The best chances for precipitation look to be this evening as 295K isentropic lift proceeds the low passage. Lingering cloud cover should keep temperatures from falling too much but still cold advection from northerly winds in the wake of the low pressure system should result in overnight lows in the upper 20s north to middle 30s south. That said, northerly winds on the back of the departing low and in advance of the high will mean temperatures will be slightly below normal in the 40s to around 50 for highs.
However, that is going to change as the low pressure system passes through southern IL this afternoon. Dry weather will settle in as high pressure takes over the pattern. The next target of opportunity is the strong low pressure system the GFS and EURO are depicting for the end of the week. The severe risk isn't clear cut this far out but the trough looks pretty deep, with more than enough bulk shear. This low looks to have a really tight pressure gradient, so whether or not we get the severe portion of the event, we should see some decently strong winds. Southeast winds this afternoon to occasionally gust around 20 kt, then back northeast late afternoon, then northwest tonight as low pressure passes to our south.
A ridge of high pressure will build in from the west starting this afternoon, bringing dry conditions and a warming trend through the weekend.
1211 PM MST Fri Mar 7 2025 KEY MESSAGES: - A ridge builds over the region for mostly sunny skies starting today. A ridge building over the region, will cause mostly sunny skies this weekend. With daytime highs above freezing and continuing snow melt, the layer of air near the surface will remain moist.
1142 AM CST Fri Mar 7 2025 (Through Tonight Today) Surface analysis this morning shows high pressure across much of the Southeast US. A fairly stacked low pressure system is currently sliding eastward through the Central Plains. As high pressure is forced eastward out of the region, we'll see the gradient increase and some stronger south/southwesterly winds mixing down later this afternoon. The focus for the higher end probabilities (~10%), would be on NE AL. Temps today show little spread in the envelope of outcomes - expected to top out in the mid 60s area wide, with a slightly higher probability of hitting the low 70s in NW AL. As a weak cold front approaches from the west, rain chances will gradually increase.
Overcast skies will return from the south early Saturday morning ahead of the next upper-level trough. Rain is expected to move in with the cold front associated with this system.
Updated at 155 PM CST Fri Mar 7 2025 - Fire weather concerns late this afternoon in advance of a cold front moving through the area.
534 PM CST Fri Mar 7 2025 (This afternoon through Saturday) Low and mid level flow will be from the south and southwest today and early tonight as a low pressure over the TN Valley moves to the east. There is a lot of dry air in place this afternoon, with sounds showing increasing moisture in the low levels through the early night. By mid morning, most of the activity should be south of the area, with a low pressure system developing over Texas and moving to the east through the day. With the anticipated cloud over and activity overnight, low temperatures should only drop into the upper 40s in the north and the mid 50s in the south, with high temperatures on Saturday reaching the low to mid 70s for many areas ahead of that low pressure.
424 PM MST Fri Mar 7 2025 - High pressure builds in Saturday and lingers through the weekend bringing sunny skies and above normal temperatures.
305 PM MST Fri Mar 7 2025 - High pressure builds in Saturday and lingers through the weekend bringing sunny skies and above normal temperatures.
However, that is going to change as the low pressure system passes through southern IL this afternoon. Dry weather will settle in as high pressure takes over the pattern. The next target of opportunity is the strong low pressure system the GFS and EURO are depicting for the end of the week. The severe risk isn't clear cut this far out but the trough looks pretty deep, with more than enough bulk shear. This low looks to have a really tight pressure gradient, so whether or not we get the severe portion of the event, we should see some decently strong winds. Copple Scattered showers will continue this evening as a low pressure system drifts east across the area.
519 PM CST Fri Mar 7 2025 Updated at 516 PM CST Fri Mar 7 2025 - Fire weather concerns late this afternoon in advance of a cold front moving through the area.
553 PM CST Fri Mar 7 2025 - Warmer temperatures today, then much cooler on Saturday.
520 PM CST Fri Mar 7 2025 - Temperatures will trend warmer over the next few days, with rapid snowmelt ongoing.