Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
In addition, there will be fog concerns overnight as high pressure remains overhead with light to calm winds and evapotranspiration likely allowing for some fog to impact visibilities to some degree Tuesday morning.
307 PM CDT Mon Aug 4 2025 - Isolated thunderstorm chances (20%) out west late today that may be marginally severe - A warm and dry pattern through the work week with multiple days at or near Heat Advisory thresholds For the current synoptic pattern, RAP mesoanalysis depicts ridging building to the south of the forecast area with small upper-level troughs located over the southern Midwest and the Pacific Northwest. At the lower-levels, a lee trough has formed off of the Rockies, and brings a slight amount of storm potential to SW Kansas later on in the day. Assisted by larger scale WAA, highs will get progressively warmer through the work-week.
- Drying and warming midweek, before cooler and wetter weather to end the week.
348 PM EDT Mon Aug 4 2025 - Wildfire Smoke Into Tuesday - Becoming Hot and Humid with Slight Chances for Storms - Wildfire Smoke Into Tuesday An Air Quality Alert continues through Tuesday as smoke remains trapped under high pressure and light winds over the area. CAMs are showing improvement in the vertically integrated smoke Tuesday night when the high shifts east and southerly winds return to the area.
1211 PM EDT Mon Aug 4 2025 - Pleasant summer weather today with low humidity and highs in the lower 80s.
This trough sticks around through Tuesday giving us scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. The trend does seem to be towards drier conditions through the next several days with the trough transitioning to a cut-off upper low. KEVV/KOWB have the highest probability of MVFR conditions from storms.
High pressure will dominate the region through the forecast period, resulting in hot daytime temperatures and mostly dry conditions. Arizona remains very dry as a ridge remains anchored over the southern part of the state. The ridge strengthen a bit in the next few days, bringing relentless heat and rising temperatures. We have added the lower elevations of Yavapai and northern Gila counties to the EHW as a result.
Daily rain chances will continue through the week as a trough remains parked over the region. Cold air damming remains in place over the region and east of the mountains with high pressure over the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic.
Another hot day is forecast across the region with highs in the low to mid 90s across our eastern counties and in the mid 90s to near 100 across our western counties. (Tuesday night through next Monday) A strengthened upper level high will be centered over New Mexico in the middle to late parts of this week.
There is not much forcing available with the ridge building overhead, but most hi-res models attempt to initiate a small cluster of storms overnight across western MN.
Overnight, mostly clear skies and light southeast winds will allow for lows to fall into the low to mid 70s across the area. Afternoon highs will climb into the low to mid 90s with little in the way of cloud cover for relief from the building heat.
350 PM EDT Mon Aug 4 2025 High pressure remains in control into the weekend. With upper level ridging along the eastern seaboard and a weak trough across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, expect some increase in high clouds through the period.
With the overnight passage of an upper trough, current 1 PM temperatures are 3-6 degrees cooler compared to this time yesterday. Overnight lows for the valley areas look to be between 50-60 degrees tonight while the higher elevations of the Sierra will see low temperatures in the upper 30s to upper 40s.
238 PM EDT Mon Aug 4 2025 A cold front exits across of the Gulf of Maine tonight.
Our location along the periphery of the mid-level ridging also lends to the continuation of isolated convection daily.
Ridging is expected to expand over the area the remainder of the day into tonight, which will inhibit additional shower and thunderstorm activity.
Scattered showers continue to develop this afternoon as expected with the return of seasonably moist humidity and dewpoints of 65 to 70 observed this afternoon as a weak, broad trough and departing high pressure have allowed a southeasterly flow to develop. Tuesday could be a near repeat of diurnally modulated shower/thunderstorm activity with little change in the air mass and remnants of the weak upper trough remaining.
447 PM CDT Mon Aug 4 2025 The area remains on the eastern side of a broad upper level trough with a deep southwesterly flow aloft. The highest rain chances remain along the coastal areas where a weak frontal boundary remains stalled. Temperatures will be cooler across the eastern half of the area again on Tuesday due to cloud cover and storms. Highs will remain in the 90s across the rest of southeast Mississippi and southwest Alabama due to the lower coverage of clouds and storms.
1028 PM EDT Mon Aug 4 2025 High pressure will remain in control into the weekend, then slowly weaken next Monday. With upper level ridging along the eastern seaboard and a weak trough across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, expect some increase in high clouds through the period.
733 PM EDT Mon Aug 4 2025 A large area of high pressure will continue to dominate the Great Lakes and New England through much of the upcoming week.
Given the low confidence, will keep mention of VCSH out of the current TAF cycle.
Upper level troughing will continue over the region for cooler and cloudier conditions.
650 PM CDT Mon Aug 4 2025 The area remains on the eastern side of a broad upper level trough with a deep southwesterly flow aloft. The highest rain chances remain along the coastal areas where a weak frontal boundary remains stalled. Temperatures will be cooler across the eastern half of the area again on Tuesday due to cloud cover and storms. Highs will remain in the 90s across the rest of southeast Mississippi and southwest Alabama due to the lower coverage of clouds and storms.
531 PM EDT Mon Aug 4 2025 High pressure will remain in control into the weekend, then slowly weaken next Monday. With upper level ridging along the eastern seaboard and a weak trough across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, expect some increase in high clouds through the period.
Thunderstorm coverage remained isolated overall this afternoon, with activity beginning across Malheur County before shifting into portions of the Lower Treasure Valley and Baker County, then continuing across the West Central Mountains.
Otherwise, high pressure and dry conditions will continue to be in place for much of the week. Tuesday will feature slightly warmer temperatures with highs in the 80s. Partly to mostly sunny skies are expected with high pressure remaining in control.
548 PM CDT Mon Aug 4 2025 - Cooler than normal weather continues today.
701 PM CDT Mon Aug 4 2025 - Isolated thunderstorm chances (20%) out west late today that may be marginally severe - A warm and dry pattern through the work week with multiple days at or near Heat Advisory thresholds For the current synoptic pattern, RAP mesoanalysis depicts ridging building to the south of the forecast area with small upper-level troughs located over the southern Midwest and the Pacific Northwest. At the lower-levels, a lee trough has formed off of the Rockies, and brings a slight amount of storm potential to SW Kansas later on in the day. Assisted by larger scale WAA, highs will get progressively warmer through the work-week.
715 PM EDT Mon Aug 4 2025 High pressure will remain in control into the weekend, then slowly weaken next Monday. With upper level ridging along the eastern seaboard and a weak trough across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, expect some increase in high clouds through the period.
730 PM EDT Mon Aug 4 2025 - Wildfire Smoke Into Tuesday - Becoming Hot and Humid with Slight Chances for Storms - Wildfire Smoke Into Tuesday An Air Quality Alert continues through Tuesday as smoke remains trapped under high pressure and light winds over the area. CAMs are showing improvement in the vertically integrated smoke Tuesday night when the high shifts east and southerly winds return to the area.
743 PM EDT Mon Aug 4 2025 A cold front exits across of the Gulf of Maine tonight.
Looking aloft, Central Alabama is downstream of a mid and upper-level trough axis over Mississippi which will move eastward today and tonight, located south of a ridge in a rex block like pattern. By this afternoon, highs look to be a bit warmer than yesterday but still well below normal given a persistent low cloud deck associated with the wedge. Will maintain the current watch given this potential even though the probabilities are in the low to medium range. The trough axis moves eastward and weakens on Wednesday, with highest rain chances once again in the southeast counties. The low cloud deck should erode from west to east by afternoon as the wedge weakens some, but the easterly winds will still result in below normal high temperatures.
(This evening through Tuesday) A gradual warming trend will continue across West Central Texas over the next few days as high pressure continues to slowly build across the area.
Ridging is expected to expand over the area the remainder of the day into tonight, which will inhibit additional shower and thunderstorm activity. Ware (Tuesday through Wednesday night) A warming trend is in store for the middle of the week as the upper ridge builds in leading to hot and muggy conditions for much of the area.
Mid- level heights will also be rising today behind a departing upper- level trough, but around 20 percent of HREF membership depict isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms with diurnal instability where convective inhibition will be lowest. With increasing insolation through the day and little airmass change from yesterday (aside from moistening) and a slightly warmer start, high temperatures will, too, be slightly warmer and firmly in the 80s F.
We might get a stray shower or storm during the afternoon/evening hours, but I think the bulk of activity will remain associated with the inverted trough that has kind of anchored itself over the Appalachians for the last couple of days. Overall troughing across the eastern half of the US should act to keep us cooler than seasonal norms, but with a few less clouds, we should get back into the upper 70s (Plateau) and mid 80s elsewhere. Again, a low chance of showers and storms will be possible, but they should be few and far between (best chance east of I-65), with afternoon highs just a couple of degrees warmer than Tuesday.
As we move into mid-week, temperatures area expected to rise with mid-to-upper level ridging building eastward from the Central/Southern plains into the ArkLaMiss region. The best potential for scattered, diurnally driven convection will be across the eastern and southeastern portions of the area, where the ridge influence will be weaker.
Overnight lows are to range between the lower to mid 50s. Upper level troughing will continue over the region for cooler and cloudier conditions. Upper level ridging looks to return later on in the week for warmer and drier conditions through the weekend.
358 AM EDT Tue Aug 5 2025 High pressure will remain centered over Quebec through Wednesday, then gradually move offshore of the New England coast by the end of the week. Meanwhile, a broad area of low pressure is forecast to develop over the next couple of days off of the southeastern U. High pressure near James Bay will strengthen through early Wed as it builds southeastward toward the St.
127 AM EDT Tue Aug 5 2025 A large area of high pressure will continue to dominate the Great Lakes and New England through the rest of the week. An old decaying backdoor cold front will drift south across the area today. The best chance for a few showers will be from near Buffalo to the western Finger Lakes, and across the higher terrain east of Lake Ontario.
Meanwhile, U/L ridging across central Florida will begin eroding today and through Wed as an area of disturbed weather over the west Atlantic approaches the SE CONUS. But the ridging should linger long enough to help keeping hot and humid conditions across SoFlo during the short term. High-res solutions suggest that the east coast sea breeze may again dominate, placing the highest POps again over interior- west areas. High temperatures in general will be a little warmer today with much of Solo in the mid 90s, and some interior-western areas in the upper 90s. Those areas with the highest temps may even reach up to 112 HIs. Expect nighttime lows in the mid-upper 70s inland, and in the low 80s closer to the coasts.
We will begin the day Tuesday under the influence of a longwave trough axis that extends from the Ohio Valley, south southwest into the Upper Texas Coast. This trough splits strong upper ridging that exists across the Bahamas on its eastern flank and across the Four Corners Region of the Country on its western flank. Typically this time of the year, a trough such as this would provide the necessary forcing to generate at the very least, isolated to scattered diurnally driven convection but a very dry atmosphere has settled in across our portion of the Middle Red River Valley.
317 AM EDT Tue Aug 5 2025 * High pressure over eastern Canada and the northeastern U. Stability drops thru the day, but the early CIN and cloud cover (and haze/smoke) potentially keeping temps cooler than NBM forecast argue against more than a 20 PoP and KIPT forecast soundings argue against mentioning TS. Even then, the convection will be rather disorganized until the approach of a cold front from the NW. Temps will be gradually, slowly getting warmer, and humidity will also rise. The low temperature of 41 degrees was observed in Bradford on August 2nd, which tied the previous record set back in 1985. The low temperature of 47 degrees was observed in Altoona on August 3rd, which broke the previous record of 48 degrees set back in 1959.
- Becoming warmer and more humid for Wednesday and beyond along with low (but not non-zero) chances for precipitation into the weekend. Northern branch ridge has pushed eastward into the Canadian prairie provinces. while troughing continues to be reinforced over Quebec/Atlantic Canada; southern branch meanders across the northern half of the CONUS with a "messy" water vapor presentation as a number of disturbances move through the flow. Mid level anticyclone centered over the Great Lakes along with a pocket of drier air although higher precipitable water values surround Michigan on three sides. ridging southeast across the Great Lakes and into the mid Atlantic states. Boundary loses its definition in the surface pressure pattern but still leaves behind some "meteorological DNA" in the low level theta-e fields. with a better defined anomaly/short wave trough pushing into the upper Lakes Wednesday.
(Through Tuesday) Temperatures trend upward today with the intensification of the mid- level ridge, and sunny skies are expected today.
As a result, highs will run 8-10 degrees below normal again -- peaking in the lower 80s in most locations. With the stalled front well to our south and east, rain chances will be pretty meager (10-30%) -- with the highest values favoring far northeast Alabama.
124 AM EDT Tue Aug 5 2025 - Wildfire Smoke Into Tuesday - Becoming Hot and Humid with Slight Chances for Storms - Wildfire Smoke Into Tuesday An Air Quality Alert continues through Tuesday as smoke remains trapped under high pressure and light winds over the area. CAMs are showing improvement in the vertically integrated smoke Tuesday night when the high shifts east and southerly winds return to the area. - Becoming Hot and Humid with Slight Chances for Storms The previously mentioned southerly winds will gradually aid in bringing back the heat and moisture ahead of a weak upper level trough that will move through Wednesday.
The influence of high pressure has graced us with yet another quiet night. While there is strong northwest flow aloft on the eastern periphery of the incoming synoptic ridge, winds in the mid- and low- levels are very light and erratic, perhaps due to the more localized area of high pressure that has settled across the area in the wake of yesterday's MCV. An inverted ridge is evident at several levels, and it will persist through the day today, keeping skies clear and winds light. High pressure continues to push in, and the tighter pressure gradient causes winds to start picking up.
140 AM EDT Tue Aug 5 2025 An upper trough will very slowly meander eastward as it shows a significant weakening trend through Wednesday. H5 trough along the MS River will move just slightly further east during the day and experience a notable weakening. The approaching upper trough, weak surface boundary, and elevated moisture in the lower levels will combine to bring an increased threat for thunderstorm activity this afternoon. Highs will be in the lower 80s with a continued relatively dry airmass and pleasant humidity. The axis of the severely weakened upper low should be located in eastern CWA by Wednesday evening. Mid and upper level ridge will build into the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes region through the period.
- Temperatures will trend warmer to near normal by Wednesday along with an increase in humidity levels. The trend of moving the trough to the east of the CWA after today continues and we should remain dry forecast wise for at least a few days. Afternoon dewpoints may mix down a little to minimize our afternoon peak heat index value based on the 850-700mb moisture decreasing a little as the trough moves east. We then get into a warm but not oppressively hot pattern through the weekend with the aformentioned weak cut-off upper low staying just to our east.
- Hot and humid weather returns to the area late in the week and into the weekend, with some reaching into the low 90s. Temperatures will increase into the low 80s, with low humidity. Thus, passing clouds and temperatures in the low-mid 60s can be expected.
- Increasing shower and thunderstorm chances this weekend, with cooler temperatures. Highs on Tuesday are expected to be slightly warmer than those today, with readings in the upper 70s to mid 80s. Mid-level ridging is forecast to strengthen across the north- central CONUS, ahead of a prominent mid-level trough amplifying over the Canadian and northern Rockies.
229 AM EDT Tue Aug 5 2025 A cold front will remain stalled to our south with high pressure to our north ridging into the area through much of the week. The front and possible weak low pressure along it could move closer to the area late week. Highs today will be in the 80-85 degree range highly dependent on the moisture with Wednesday morning lows in the lower 70s along the coast with one more day of upper 60s well inland. No major changes for the short term period as high pressure from the north will sit to our west with ridging in the low/mid levels.
Some of the high-res solutions indicate potential long-tracked outflows that may peak above severe thresholds moving through the Eastern Magic Valley/Snake Plain into early this evening. Tuesday should be dry with slightly cooler temperatures by 2-5 degrees across the region. The dry stretch continues into Wednesday as the high pressure remains across the southern Rockies. Wednesday should also be the warmest day of the week with low elevation highs rebounding into the lower/mid 90s.
Otherwise, high pressure and dry conditions will continue to be in place for much of the week. While there is no trigger this afternoon, the lack of capping and weak flow in the low levels will likely support terrain driven convection in the afternoon and early evening.
211 AM EDT Tue Aug 5 2025 High pressure will build into the area through midweek. An area of weak low pressure and/or inverted trough will move along the Southeast coast late this week and into the weekend. Ridging continues to our north, resulting in weak NE flow early this morning. To our south, a weak area of low pressure is trying to develop of the SC/GA/FL coast. Today, high pressure will continue to ridge in from the north, keeping NE flow and drier airmass in place. Temps will be a few degrees warmer with highs in the low/mid 80s, with dewpoints still fairly comfortable (60s to low 70s) for this time of year. ridging to our north begins to weaken Tuesday night, and outside of an isolated shower, conditions should remain dry for most.
- Lower rain chances as high pressure system moves in.
Currently, an upper level ridge is situated over the Desert Southwest with an upper trough over the Upper Midwest. This morning, we have generally light southeasterly winds across the state, but as the upper ridge slowly builds into the region, the pressure gradient at the surface will tighten leading to breezy conditions over our central Kansas counties this afternoon. With the ridge nudging into the Central Plains, our precip chances have been effectively shut off for the time being.
1209 AM CDT Tue Aug 5 2025 - Isolated thunderstorm chances (20%) out west late today that may be marginally severe - A warm and dry pattern through the work week with multiple days at or near Heat Advisory thresholds For the current synoptic pattern, RAP mesoanalysis depicts ridging building to the south of the forecast area with small upper-level troughs located over the southern Midwest and the Pacific Northwest. At the lower-levels, a lee trough has formed off of the Rockies, and brings a slight amount of storm potential to SW Kansas later on in the day. Assisted by larger scale WAA, highs will get progressively warmer through the work-week.
Strong, broad ridge centered to our west will expand then contract this week and weekend.
Aloft, an expansive ridge situated over portions of the Four Corners region should meander Ewrd into the Srn Plains by mid week.
Issued 345 AM CDT Tue Aug 5 2025 Today and Tonight: Quiet weather will persist today as high pressure lingers across the Great Lakes region.
A warm and dry weather pattern remains in place this week as the region is situated between low pressure to the northwest and broad high pressure over the Southwest. Slow warming will maintain daytime highs in the low to mid 80s/90s this week for Sierra and western Nevada communities, respectively.
Jaja A mid-level ridge centered over the Desert Southwest will expand early this week, with its influence reaching the Mid-Mississippi Valley by Wednesday and lasting through late week.
A slow moving mid level trough over the Mid MS Valley will meander eastward through the OH Valley later tonight through Wednesday. Overall forcing is weak however with lingering dry easterly flow in the low levels. Models continue to agree in upper ridging dominating for the second half of the week into the weekend with building heat and humidity, along with mainly dry conditions given a strengthening cap.
High pressure will dominate the region through the forecast period, resulting in hot daytime temperatures and mostly dry conditions. Arizona remains very dry as a ridge remains anchored over the southern part of the state. The ridge strengthens a bit in the next few days, bringing relentless heat and rising temperatures. We have added the lower elevations of Yavapai and northern Gila counties to the EHW as a result. The remainder of the week should see lighter winds as the ridge begins to slowly migrate north and northwest. Because of this ridge movement, we should see some of the moisture down south start to trickle northward. Enough weakness exists in the ridge by the coming weekend, that storms may actually become more vigorous.
Upper level ridging near Bermuda extends west-southwestward across Florida and into the central gulf. Farther to the west, upper troughing extends southward through the Mississippi River Valley. This boundary is sandwiched between a pair of high pressure centers over New England and another extending westward across the Florida peninsula. This ridging will keep a southeast through southwest wind flow over the region today. By Wednesday morning, the stationary boundary remains stretched east to west across northern Florida, while high pressure in the eastern gulf becomes the dominant weather feature for west central and southwest Florida.