Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Issued by National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 110 PM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025 (Today through Wednesday night) A hot day is in store for Tuesday as an upper-level trough approaches the Panhandles. Clouds and/or a cold front is favored to move into the northern combined Panhandles in the mid to late afternoon which will help keep temperatures in the low to mid-90s. The better chance for showers and thunderstorms will be along and behind the cold frontal passage as more favorable low-level moisture will move in, along with stronger forcing. Expecting dry weather and slightly below normal temperatures across the Panhandles on Wednesday behind the cold front, with temperatures largely in the mid-80s to around 90 degrees.
Â Previously advertised upper ridge amplification over the central U. late in the week into the weekend as an upper low drops into the Pacific northwest and northern Rockies. We will keep the higher moisture over the area with dewpoints in the 70s with temperatures warming into the upper 80s into the lower to middle 90s.
721 PM EDT Tue Jun 17 2025 High pressure in the Atlantic will prevail across the Southeast this week. A cold front could approach, then pass just to our north later this week. We'll remain on the western side of a strong deep layered ridge through tonight. Isolated showers or a thunderstorm could pop up along the sea breeze or farther inland within the lee trough, but coverage will be very limited and anything that does develop should die off by early evening.
The high PWATS are contributing to very efficient rainfall production with torrential rain possible with any and all storms.
Evening analysis reveals a deep, moist, and unstable ESE flow across the Florida Keys and adjacent coastal waters, driven by a sprawling subtropical anticyclone centered over the western North Atlantic with a ridge extending westward across the Florida Peninsula and Gulf basin. Current air temperatures in Keys island communities are in the mid 80s, with dewpoint temperatures in the mid 70s and heat indices in the lower to mid 90s.
The Umpqua Valley and parts of the coast may see cooler temperatures , as marine stratus is expected to develop tonight and could persist into Wednesday afternoon.
626 PM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025 (Tonight through Wednesday night) The short term period will feature slightly above normal temperatures and generally rain-free conditions across Deep South Texas as mid-level ridging builds overhead. At the lower levels, persistent low-level southerly to southeasterly flow will maintain elevated dew points across the region.
Coverage was a bit less than originally thought and way less than the days past likely due to some upper dry air filtering into the region from the west on the western side of the trough that's been over our region for the last few days. Temperatures look to be just a bit warmer, but it all depends on timing of convection and coverage as well as any convective debris (cloudiness) that may result in slightly lower temperatures.
614 PM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025 (Tonight through Wednesday night) Key messages: - Typical hot summer weather with a moderate to breezy south- southeasterly flow Mid-level ridging remains centered towards our west across Baja California but 589 to 592 dam heights do extend eastward over the region.
1002 PM EDT Tue Jun 17 2025 Bermuda high pressure keeps hot and humid weather in place through mid-week.
- Warmer temperatures late this week -â the warmest of the season so far. Upper ridging remains on track to build northeast into the central Plains in the later portions of the week, allowing warm and humid conditions to push in.
Previously advertised upper ridge amplification over the central U. late in the week into the weekend as an upper low drops into the Pacific northwest and northern Rockies. We will keep the higher moisture over the area with dewpoints in the 70s with temperatures warming into the upper 80s into the lower to middle 90s.
A cold front will approach from the northwest on Wednesday.
A low pressure system will move to the east across the Great Lakes region on Wednesday night through Thursday, with a boundary moving south through the state Thursday afternoon. With the increase in winds, shear will be slightly higher as well, mainly in the low levels. Parallel flow could cause an increased threat for localized flooding with a higher chance for training storms due to the high PW values allowing for heavy rain in any thunderstorm.
The rainy bout of weather occupying much of S/Cntrl CONUS over the last couple of months will quickly be replaced with an expansive amplified ridge building in from the the Srn Rockies.
With increasing shear over eastern Kentucky Wednesday into Wednesday night ahead of an approaching cold front, there will be some severe weather threat, particularly from any upstream MCS activity that can hold together as it moves into the forecast area. A progressive upper level trough and its associated surface cold front will be approaching from the northwest at the start of the period. The highest POP will be in southeast KY where fropa will be latest. Most precip will be gone by night, and high pressure will then build in from the west with a somewhat drier air mass as we end the week. However, the upper trough will continue to be progressive, and upper level ridging is expected to build in from the west and then park itself over the central Appalachians as a strong upper high early in the new week.
Locally, the area is parked under the warm sector of the southern Canadian low with the warm front draped over the Mid-Atlantic. Through the remainder of the day, shower and thunderstorm chances will continue to exist as the area remains in the warm sector, ahead of an approaching cold front. While showers and thunderstorm chances continue to exist throughout the day, the cold front, will continue to track eastward toward the area. Highs for today will be in the mid to upper-80s with Thursday's cold front causing temperatures to dip into the upper-70s to low-80s for Thursday. Overnight lows will start in the mid to upper-60s before falling into the low 60s for Thursday night.
High pressure rebounds into the area tomorrow bringing lighter winds and warm to hot temperatures. A large dry trough begins to impact the area late Thursday afternoon and lasting through the weekend.
Given the ridge's presence, not expecting many thunderstorms both today and tomorrow even during peak heating hours, but an isolated storm or two will still be possible for Gulf coast areas. High temperatures will be mostly in the low to mid 90s across the region except for coastal locations along the Atlantic that peak in the upper 80s.
359 AM CDT Wed Jun 18 2025 - A few stronger storms possible this afternoon and early evening associated with the cold front extending along and southeast of Harrisonville to Macon Missouri.
Overnight low temperatures tonight will fall back into the low to mid 70s.
140 AM EDT Wed Jun 18 2025 - High pressure builds across east central Florida Wednesday, limiting rain and storm chances through Thursday.
Shear increases to 40+ KTS so all the ingredients are there with the intro of the front and the parent upper trof sharpening on the synoptic scale for a convective event to break out with all hazards potential. While some pop may linger into Thursday, eventually the system clears and we go drier but also warmer under the increasing influence of a building dome of high pressure.
(This evening through Wednesday) Upper air analysis early this afternoon depicts broadly cyclonic flow aloft in place over most of the CONUS, with flat upper ridging centered over NW Mexico and Baja CA. A cold front will slowly move southward through the overnight hours, with the associated shift to northeasterly surface flow arriving to the entire forecast area by sunrise on Wednesday. Temperatures on Wednesday behind the front will be cooler than today, but the cooldown will be subtle given the influence of expanding upper ridging to our west.
Discussion: Broad trough over the Ohio and Mississippi River VAlleys has our forecast area under southwest flow. Additional afternoon activity will also be possible as the next trough approaches the area.
(This evening through Wednesday) A typical early summer day across west central Texas with southerly flow and temperatures in the lower 90s and somewhat muggy conditions with dewpoints in the 60s across much of the area.
Subtropical ridging remains over our area today. Ridging shifts a little to the north on Thursday.
128 AM EDT Wed Jun 18 2025 High pressure in the Atlantic will prevail across the Southeast this week. A cold front could approach, then pass just to our north later this week. Temperatures are on track to range from near 80 along the coast to the low to mid 70s inland. By later Thursday, the High will get pushed offshore by a trough that'll stretch from the Great Lake Region down into the Deep South.
- A dry forecast with slightly warmer than normal temperatures will prevail for the upcoming weekend. Overnight low temperatures tonight will fall back into the low to mid 70s.
/DC/ Wednesday through Thursday: The upper level ridging pattern will continue through Thursday, our area remains sandwiched in a H5 trough with ridging on either side.
-Cooler temperatures expected today behind a cold front.
Aloft, high pressure also lingers, which will remain in place for the next several days. Most of the HighRes guidance suggest afternoon thunderstorm activity will likely decrease by sundown, with only a few showers lingering into the nighttime hours. Ensembles and CAMs data suggest having a modest increase in moisture advection as the mid level ridge weakens a little.
327 AM CDT Wed Jun 18 2025 Wednesday through Thursday: The upper level ridging pattern will continue through Thursday, our area remains sandwiched in a H5 trough with ridging on either side. Thursday looks to have the higher flash flood potently, especially north of I-20, as a boundary looks to shift south across the region.
1235 AM CDT Wed Jun 18 2025 (Tonight through Wednesday night) Key messages: - Typical hot summer weather with a moderate to breezy south- southeasterly flow Mid-level ridging remains centered towards our west across Baja California but 589 to 592 dam heights do extend eastward over the region. Afternoon high temperatures will generally peak in the low to mid 90s across most locations while locations around the Rio Grande climb to or above the 100 degree mark. Overnights will trend warm with the morning lows ranging from the low 70s in the Hill Country to the mid to upper 70s elsewhere.
Updated at 201 AM CDT Wed Jun 18 2025 - Cooler today with a slight chance of thunderstorms this evening over the Rolling Plains.
- A strong low pressure system from the Pacific coast will favor the return of more widespread strong thunderstorms this weekend. WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Today through Thursday, a flat upper ridge will slide across the state shifting the area of slightly more unstable northwest flow toward North Dakota today. With the upper ridge will come warmer temperatures and drier weather. Beginning this weekend, a tightly-wound low pressure system will move through the Pacific Northwest, directing a strong jet streak toward Montana.
Issued by National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 501 AM CDT Wed Jun 18 2025 -Cooler temperatures expected today behind a cold front.
243 AM PDT Wed Jun 18 2025 High pressure aloft will continue high temperatures as much as 8 to 12 degrees above average today for the mountains, deserts, and inland valleys.
704 AM CDT Wed Jun 18 2025 Wednesday through Thursday: The upper level ridging pattern will continue through Thursday, our area remains sandwiched in a H5 trough with ridging on either side. Thursday looks to have the higher flash flood potently, especially north of I-20, as a boundary looks to shift south across the region.
Last night's KKEY 00z sounding revealed drier air in the lower-levels making it hard for any showers to thrive. Temperatures along the island chain are in the lower 80s. Another similar day to yesterday is in store for the Keys as high pressure continues to keep our weather mild. Guidance has suggested a mid to upper level trough strengthening and deepening across the east US simultaneously as cut-off low moves westward over the Bahamas. This would result in the pinching of the high pressure that has been dominating our weather over the last week, bringing increased moisture and instability to the Keys.
Issued by National Weather Service Norman OK 616 AM CDT Wed Jun 18 2025 Updated at 615 AM CDT Wed Jun 18 2025 - Cooler today with a slight chance of thunderstorms this evening over the Rolling Plains.
The upper level ridging pattern will continue across the southeast CONUS today with a few isolated to scattered showers possible across the Pine Belt later this morning. Expect afternoon highs to peak into the low 90s areawide. /CR/ Wednesday through Thursday: The upper level ridging pattern will continue through Thursday, our area remains sandwiched in a H5 trough with ridging on either side. Thursday looks to have the higher flash flood potently, especially north of I-20, as a boundary looks to shift south across the region.
Modest lapse rates and cooler temperatures aloft could support multi-cluster cells across the northern half of the state possibly producing large hail and strong to severe wind gusts. An upper level ridge over the Pacific Northwest will begin to push over the Northern Rockies into the Northern Plains by the end of this week.
An upper trough will be moving towards the area from the northwest Thursday afternoon. The net result will be slightly cooler afternoon temperatures for the interior and gusty afternoon and early evening breezes east of the Cascades and interior westside valleys.
Highs look to climb into the low 80s over the Pikes Peak region, with mid to upper 80s over the rest of the plains. Our mountain valleys will be a few degrees warmer than normal, with highs in the mid 80s. Though dry conditions look to persist over the high country, critical fire weather conditions are not expected for today as winds will be much weaker and mainly diurnally driven. Relative humidity values still look to fall into the low teens over our mountains today, with values in the 20% range across the plains.
Hot and dry weather forecast to continue under another strong ridge. Winds will gradually increase Thursday through the weekend with an incoming trough. Once again we find ourselves under a strong area of high pressure, resulting in hot to dangerously hot temperatures.
Discussion: Broad trough over the Ohio and Mississippi River Valleys has our forecast area under southwest flow. Additional afternoon activity will also be possible as the next trough approaches the area.
640 AM CDT Wed Jun 18 2025 - A few stronger storms possible this afternoon and early evening associated with the cold front extending along and southeast of Harrisonville to Macon Missouri.
Surface analysis places an expansive area of high pressure extending across the southern half of the North Atlantic, with its latitudinal axis intersecting north-central Florida. This continues to place the Florida Keys in the southwestern quadrant of the high, with associated gentle to moderate east to southeast breezes.
The tail end of a sheared vorticity/trough axis was laid out from the central Appalachians and along the I-59 corridor in AL.
Updated at 235 PM CDT Wed Jun 18 2025 - A cold front will push into the region tonight, bringing a couple of rounds of strong to severe storms.
- A dry forecast with slightly warmer than normal temperatures will prevail for the upcoming weekend. The center of an expansive upper ridge will be centered over the southeastern U.
(Tonight through Thursday night) Key messages: - Typical hot summer weather with a moderate to breezy south- southeasterly flow A mid-level high remains centered over the Baja California Peninsula with the ridge extending eastward over TX. Surface winds are from the south-southeast thanks to a high pressure center over the Gulf. The upper ridge will weaken slightly as an inverted trough moves into South Texas.
Surface analysis places an expansive area of high pressure extending across the southern half of the North Atlantic, with its latitudinal axis intersecting north-central Florida. This continues to place the Florida Keys in the southwestern quadrant of the high, with associated gentle to moderate east to southeast breezes. Guidance has suggested a mid to upper level trough strengthening and deepening across the east US simultaneously as cut-off low moves westward over the Bahamas. This would result in the pinching of the high pressure that has been dominating our weather over the last week, bringing increased moisture and instability to the Keys.
Issued by National Weather Service Norman OK 1218 PM CDT Wed Jun 18 2025 Updated at 1216 PM CDT Wed Jun 18 2025 - Cooler today with a slight chance of thunderstorms this evening through tonight over most of the region.
- Max temperatures will rise into the low to mid 90s by the end of the work week with min temps hovering in the mid 70s range.
With rain chances and coverage on the lower side, temperatures have climbed into the 90s across most of the CWFA this afternoon (unlike the last few days). The upper H5 trough begins to deamplify as upper ridge begins to take shape across the upper Gulf coast.
(Tonight through Wednesday) The upper level low responsible for the recent storminess will exit the area Thursday with high pressure building in its wake. Saturated soils will provide ample moisture to the lower atmosphere, so went above NBM for dew points. The combination of the higher temperatures and humidity will result in the first summer-like stretch this season.
Behind this expected line of storms a cold front should push south across the area.
North of the boundary cooler and somewhat less humid conditions are noted, with little to no precipitation.
Rain chances will continue for northern portions of our forecast area tonight and Thursday thanks to the upper level ridging pattern over our CWA. Hi-res guidance continues to show a trough axis over our forecast area with ridging on each side.
Another round of intense thunderstorms are expected Thursday as a cold front pushes across the region.
(Through Thursday) Upper level trough to our north slides further east for Thursday afternoon and this will bring more westerly flow to the forecast area tomorrow.
Discussion: A slow moving trough is present from the Great Lakes to the Gulf Coast tonight and tomorrow. Another round of showers and storms are possible tomorrow afternoon as the cold front approaches.
204 PM CDT Wed Jun 18 2025 - Scattered thunderstorms have initiated along and ahead of a cold front draped across northwestern MO this afternoon.
Temperatures today will run 3-8 degrees warmer than yesterday as high pressure builds overhead.
115 PM CDT Wed Jun 18 2025 - A few stronger storms possible this afternoon and early evening associated with the cold front extending along and southeast of Harrisonville to Macon Missouri.
Strong cold front increases the severe potential for Thursday.
845 AM PDT Wed Jun 18 2025 High pressure aloft will continue high temperatures as much as 8 to 12 degrees above average today for the mountains, deserts, and inland valleys.
(Rest of today through Thursday) High pressure will remain over the Western Atlantic Waters and extend westward into the Florida Peninsula, as a mid to upper level low over the Southern Bahamas moves slowly westward into Eastern Cuba. Highs on Thursday will be in the lower to mid 90s over most areas except around 90 over the east coast metro areas.
3 inches under the influence of the 500 mb ridge axis across central FL. Continued to focus the higher rain chances of 40-60% across our inland zones between Highway 301 and the Interstate 75 corridor where boundaries converge into the late afternoon and early evening.
Issued by National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 1233 PM CDT Wed Jun 18 2025 -Cooler temperatures expected today behind a cold front.
- A dry forecast with slightly warmer than normal temperatures will prevail for the upcoming weekend.
These will continue to move northeast as well, but as they reach the I-65 corridor they should weaken as they enter a slightly cooler and stable environment due to earlier storms. Overnight, a trough axis across IL/MO will slide southeast.
- The highest precipitation chances and rainfall amounts are expected mainly over the low/mid RGV, but there is still some uncertainty on where the higher rainfall amounts will set up. (This Afternoon through Thursday night) Another warm and generally rain-free afternoon is setting up across Deep South Texas, as the region remains under the influence of subsidence associated with mid-level ridging aloft. Similar conditions are expected on Thursday temperature-wise, although the influence of the aforementioned mid-level ridge will weaken somewhat overhead. 2 inches from southeast to northwest, with the highest values along and east of US-281. While most activity is expected to dissipate with the loss of day time heating, low to medium (20-40%) rain chances will continue Thursday night, mainly across the low/mid RGV and east of I-69.
High pressure surface and aloft remains over the region.
There still remains the chance of additional storms dropping in from the north well after midnight tonight along and ahead of a cold front. Rain chances will continue for northern portions of our forecast area tonight and Thursday thanks to the upper level ridging pattern over our CWA. Hi-res guidance continues to show a trough axis over our forecast area with ridging on each side.
Deep mean layer ridging remains anchored across much of the Atlantic. Deep mean layer ridging is expected to remain the name of the game through the overnight period. The wind profile shows east to southeast breezes of 15 to 20 knots through the lowest 5000 ft before becoming chaotic and weaker above this.
919 PM EDT Wed Jun 18 2025 Another round of intense thunderstorms is expected Thursday as a cold front pushes across the region.
643 PM CDT Wed Jun 18 2025 Updated at 630 PM CDT Wed Jun 18 2025 - A cold front will push into the region tonight, bringing a couple of rounds of strong to severe storms.
625 PM CDT Wed Jun 18 2025 -Cooler temperatures expected today behind a cold front.
733 PM EDT Wed Jun 18 2025 (Rest of today through Thursday) High pressure will remain over the Western Atlantic Waters and extend westward into the Florida Peninsula, as a mid to upper level low over the Southern Bahamas moves slowly westward into Eastern Cuba. Highs on Thursday will be in the lower to mid 90s over most areas except around 90 over the east coast metro areas.
619 PM CDT Wed Jun 18 2025 - Scattered thunderstorms have initiated along and ahead of a cold front draped across northwestern MO this afternoon.
726 PM EDT Wed Jun 18 2025 High pressure centered in the Atlantic will prevail across the Southeast.
723 PM EDT Wed Jun 18 2025 (Through Thursday) Upper level trough to our north slides further east for Thursday afternoon and this will bring more westerly flow to the forecast area tomorrow.
700 PM CDT Wed Jun 18 2025 (Tonight through Thursday night) Key messages: - Typical hot summer weather with a moderate to breezy south- southeasterly flow A mid-level high remains centered over the Baja California Peninsula with the ridge extending eastward over TX. Surface winds are from the south-southeast thanks to a high pressure center over the Gulf. The upper ridge will weaken slightly as an inverted trough moves into South Texas.