Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
- A cold front will bring an area of showers and perhaps some thunderstorms to the area Tuesday and Tuesday night, followed by cooler weather to finish the week. On the south side of the high, Atlantic and gulf moisture is advecting west and northwest into the southeast CONUS (still mainly to our south). Meanwhile, an upper trough extends from south central Canada southwestward into the western CONUS. The trough will advance eastward through Monday, especially its northern extent. The advancing trough will also support a surface cold front which will arrive in Kentucky from the northwest on Tuesday. The front and upper trough will act on this to produce an area of showers which will move in from the northwest late tonight and Tuesday.
Current upper air models show upper trough that has affected us the last couple of days shifting eastward today with northwest flow over the FA as upper ridge builds over the PAC NW. Surface analysis shows high pressure shifting over the region. Winds are currently light out of the south, with temperatures in the low 40s to high 50s. Upper ridge will shift over the Rockies on Tuesday and into the northern/central plains by mid-week, as upper trough begins moves over the PAC NW.
137 PM EDT Mon Oct 6 2025 High pressure over the area today will move to the east on Tuesday.
- Drier conditions with cooler mornings will return during the latter half of this week. /EC/ Tuesday: Periodic shower activity will stick around tomorrow as the weak trough and associated low center continues to meander nearby within a fairly moist regime. The low will ultimately shift away from the area as it encounters an advancing upper trough and cold front, and this will bring an overall diminishing trend to shower activity.
Next two nights will be similarly cold and we may need a Frost Advisory for the Lower Treasure Valley Tuesday morning.
344 PM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025 - Scattered showers and storms with a cold frontal passage this afternoon becoming more widespread tonight with post frontal rain.
- A cold front brings cooler temperatures on Tuesday. (Rest of today and tonight) Cold front continues to make its way slowly south into northwest Oklahoma this afternoon. The rain and associated precip will keep temperatures a bit cooler this afternoon across far northwest Oklahoma. Otherwise, cooler air will filter south in the wake of the front. Overnight lows are expected to drop into the lowers 50s in northwest Oklahoma and much of the area northwest of I-44 also in the 50s by morning.
Ridging will remain the primary influence on weather conditions through the next seven days across the Four State region. The evolution of this ridging will be the source of any variations as a result after a weak frontal boundary passes through the area by the middle of the week. Some wrap-around -SHRA may develop this afternoon around the core of the low level low pressure area just W of MLU, primarily affecting the MLU/ELD terminals.
Updated at 418 AM PDT Mon Oct 6 2025 - Warmer and drier conditions through midweek, with moderate offshore wind expected today and Tuesday in the higher elevations - Unsettled weather returns late this week Clear sky conditions across much of the region this morning with offshore flow aloft. Maximum temperatures this (Monday) afternoon will warm into the low to mid 70s along the immediate coastline with low to upper 80s across inland areas. RGass (Today and tonight) A relatively weak offshore upper level low will slowly retrograde during the day today while maintaining a fetch of weak offshore flow that will tame the marine layer from making progress inland. With offshore flow today we'll see warmer than normal temperatures, with coastal communities feeling the biggest difference without much help from the marine layer.
The cold front that brought rain to the region overnight through this morning now is largely through Wisconsin, residing in the southwestern corner of the state. Cooler and drier air pushes in behind the cold front the next couple of days.
253 PM MDT Mon Oct 6 2025 KEY MESSAGES: 1) Near or below freezing low temperatures are expected again tonight across NE Montana, especially in the valleys and along the Canadian border. Valley and near Canadian border regions will see particular dropoffs in temperatures overnight with higher terrain near or above freezing. Upper ridging looks to take hold across the region through the middle of the week. Thus, warmer temperatures and dry weather are expected under the large scale subsidence. Late week the ridge will shift east while upper trough deepens over the Pacific Northwest with closed low. This system will slide east for cooler temperatures and wet weather chances increasing by the weekend.
235 PM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025 - Freezing temperatures are expected in western and north central North Dakota tonight. With high pressure moving across the region, clear and dry weather is anticipated today. With clear skies and relatively weak winds tonight, another round of freezing temperatures is anticipated over the northern and portions of southwestern North Dakota through Tuesday morning, dropping as low as 28.
-Cooler and more seasonal conditions should return by mid to late week in the wake of a cold front Tuesday night, with settled weather prevailing thereafter. Latest mesoanalysis early Mon mrng depicted broad, and highly positively tilted H500 troughing extending acrs much of the CONUS, w/ ridging residing over the Ern and NErn US coastline. At the sfc, inverted sfc pressure troughing was noted, extending SW to NE fm the OK/TX panhandle region, towards the Upper Midwest. Uncertainties still remain for now, and the approximate location of the highest QPF footprint may depend on where a modest H850 LLJ develops acrs the Mid-South later Mon evng. A cold front will move from NW to SE across the state Tuesday bringing NW winds in its wake.
WV imagery indicates an elongated upper level trough, extending from the Northern Plains southwest into the Great Basin, pushing slowly eastward. Near the surface, a stalled frontal boundary extends northeast from the Texas Panhandle up into eastern Kansas while a broad area of high pressure is sliding southeast through the Dakotas. Rain chances (40-60%) pick back up later this evening/overnight as the SREF indicates the upper level trough transitioning eastward through the Central Plains, pushing the previously mentioned stalled boundary southward into Oklahoma.
(Tonight) Presently our area is situated between a cold front to the northwest and high pressure to the northeast. Moisture is being brought into our area as a result of flow from the high pressure, resulting in a low chance (10-20%) of isolated showers and high cloud coverage. Through the night, the chance of precipitation will increase from low (10-20%) to medium chances (30-60%) by sunrise tomorrow particularly in the northwestern portion of the CWA as a result of the approaching cold front. With the approaching cold front, there is a low chance of some weak storms embedded in the ongoing showers in our northwestern counties early tomorrow morning.
1108 AM PDT Mon Oct 6 2025 Updated at 418 AM PDT Mon Oct 6 2025 - Warmer and drier conditions through midweek, with moderate offshore wind expected today and Tuesday in the higher elevations - Unsettled weather returns late this week Clear sky conditions across much of the region this morning with offshore flow aloft. Maximum temperatures this (Monday) afternoon will warm into the low to mid 70s along the immediate coastline with low to upper 80s across inland areas. RGass (Today and tonight) A relatively weak offshore upper level low will slowly retrograde during the day today while maintaining a fetch of weak offshore flow that will tame the marine layer from making progress inland. With offshore flow today we'll see warmer than normal temperatures, with coastal communities feeling the biggest difference without much help from the marine layer.
All winds down by 00Z Wed as the front completes passage and the parent trof soon follows. It'll sweep in a pleasantly cooler and drier air mass, which results in 40s/50s for lows, and 70s for highs to finish out the week. Time/height cross sections confirm the lowering bases trend toward resticted CIGS is ongoing and will continue.
Aloft, a broad area of weak ridging remains centered over the Gulf, while a shallow trough and low level vorticity axis lingers to the east across the Bahamas. From synopsis, a combination of a stationary frontal boundary and a weak area of low pressure still situated near the Bahamas will make for a messy weather pattern through the next several days.
- Drier conditions with cooler mornings will return during the latter half of this week. As we go through the remainder of the morning into the early afternoon, we should see showers become less focused with diminishing of the low level jet, but additional scattered shower activity will be supported by continued moist southerly flow with precipitable water up to 2. This low is expected to lift northward through today, then ultimately eastward as it encounters an advancing upper trough and cold front. Through the near term, much of the shower and occasional thunder activity will likely be focused in bands associated with this low as it gradually lifts across/nearby the area.
Water vapor imagery and RAP analysis this afternoon indicate mid/upper troughing over southern Ontario with broad southwesterly flow aloft over the Heartland. A cold front spanning from the Oklahoma Panhandle to the Great Lakes has slowly made its way through the forecast area and promoted the development of showers and a few thunderstorms so far today. Cooler air following this front will keep low temperatures tonight in the middle 40s and 50s across central and south central KS, while areas in southeast KS will see lows near 60 thanks to later frontal passage and ample cloud coverage. High temperatures Tuesday afternoon continue to be forecast below normal for this time of year, with central and south central KS reaching the middle 60s and southeast KS reaching the low 70s.
An upper-level ridge of high pressure extends from the northeastern Pacific Ocean into the Pacific Northwest. Beneath the ridge, clear skies coupled with predominantly light winds and a dry air mass (PWATs of 0. Isolated near- freezing to freezing temperatures are expected (80% confidence) this morning for low-lying, cold- prone locations within the Yakima and Kittitas valleys, Columbia Basin, and along the Blue Mountain foothills; no Freeze Warnings have been issued due to limited spatial extent. Elsewhere, more widespread sub-freezing temperatures are expected (80-100% confidence) this morning for central Oregon, the John Day Basin, and the Grande Ronde and Wallowa valleys. By Tuesday, the ridge will flatten as a couple vort lobes drop south from the Gulf of Alaska and BC and carve out an offshore closed low.
1103 AM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025 - Much colder today - Showery Tuesday morning and continued cool - Dry and warmer for the rest of the week A cold front has traversed about 70% of the FA early this morning.
Chances for unsettled and cooler weather return late this week and into the weekend.
An upper-level ridge of high pressure will build over Texas through this week keeping the region unseasonably warm and mostly rain- free.
High pressure will otherwise make for quiet weather through the midweek. Overnight lows will be chilly once again, flirting with and even dropping below freezing across our elevated valleys, but with many such areas seeing a season- ending freeze last night (namely central Oregon, the John Day Basin, Wallowa Valley, and Grande Ronde Valley), Freeze Warnings are not anticipated. The Kittitas Valley in particular dropped below freezing last night, and could once again tonight, however confidence is low (20%) as temps will be higher during the day today compared to yesterday.
701 PM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025 - Freezing temperatures are expected in western and north central North Dakota tonight. With high pressure moving across the region, clear and dry weather is anticipated today. With clear skies and relatively weak winds tonight, another round of freezing temperatures is anticipated over the northern and portions of southwestern North Dakota through Tuesday morning, dropping as low as 28.
619 PM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025 Dry conditions and southeasterly winds are expected through the remainder of the day today as ridging and subsidence aloft continues along with drier than average PWAT values, which is around 1.
501 PM MDT Mon Oct 6 2025 - Widespread below freezing temperatures again tonight into Tuesday morning. Afternoon satellite imagery shows mostly clear skies across much of eastern Idaho aside from some fair weather CU forming across the higher terrain of the central mountains and eastern highlands. Temperatures remain on the cooler side of normal this afternoon with widespread upper 40s to mid 50s across the region. The cooler temperatures are the only weather concern in the short-term as another night of sub-freezing temperatures appear likely across our agricultural zones. Tue night into Wed AM looks like it'll be a touch warmer but still may require some frost/freeze headlines in spots.
Updated at 222 PM PDT Mon Oct 6 2025 - Warmer and drier conditions through Tuesday, with moderate offshore wind expected in the higher elevations - Cooler, unsettled weather returns late this week (This evening through Tuesday) Offshore winds prevail in the higher elevations this afternoon, yet that remain weak to moderate in strength. Slightly cooler conditions prevail along the immediate coast where onshore winds have returned. Temperatures this afternoon will peak in the low to mid 70s along the immediate coastline with low to upper 80s across inland areas. However, coastal locations have the potential to be a few degrees cooler than today depending on when onshore flow returns.
- A low pressure system and cold front will then bring windy conditions, increased shower activity, and mostly mountain snow this weekend. Transient upper level ridging will continue to build in over the Northern Rockies through the overnight hours, with a weak disturbance within northwest flow diving southeast over mainly Hill, Blaine, Chouteau, and Fergus Counties. This ideal cooling combined with cool drainage from the recently snow covered mountains will set the stage for the more cold prone valleys to overachieve on cooling tonight, and thus the lowering of temperatures. - Moldan /Issued 506 PM MDT Mon Oct 6 2025/ - Meteorological Overview: Upper-level ridging will build across the Northern Rockies and Montana today and tomorrow, resulting in general dry and mild conditions for much of the workweek following another cold night tonight.
A low pressure system spinning over the upper Mississippi Delta region this evening continues to support some bands of showers in our forecast area. /EC/ Tuesday: Periodic shower activity will stick around tomorrow as the weak trough and associated low center continues to meander nearby within a fairly moist regime. The low will ultimately shift away from the area as it encounters an advancing upper trough and cold front, and this will bring an overall diminishing trend to shower activity.
As the atmosphere continues to stabilize this evening, any remaining shower activity should generally fizzle out by around midnight with skies becoming partly cloudy and overnight lows dropping into the low/mid 70s.
Ridging will remain the primary influence on weather conditions through the next seven days across the Four State region. The evolution of this ridging will be the source of any variations as a result after a weak frontal boundary passes through the area by the middle of the week.
- Cooler temperatures this week with highs in the 70s and overnight lows in the 50. Rainfall coverage and intensity will increase overnight with the approach of the cold front and the surge of additional moisture from the remnant gulf low over north Mississippi. As a result, temperatures today and over the next several days will be somewhat cooler than the unseasonal warmth that has been the norm this first week of October.
531 PM PDT Mon Oct 6 2025 Updated at 222 PM PDT Mon Oct 6 2025 - Warmer and drier conditions through Tuesday, with moderate offshore wind expected in the higher elevations - Cooler, unsettled weather returns late this week (This evening through Tuesday) Offshore winds prevail in the higher elevations this afternoon, yet that remain weak to moderate in strength. Slightly cooler conditions prevail along the immediate coast where onshore winds have returned. Temperatures this afternoon will peak in the low to mid 70s along the immediate coastline with low to upper 80s across inland areas. However, coastal locations have the potential to be a few degrees cooler than today depending on when onshore flow returns.
Slightly cooler than normal conditions will continue through midweek due to an upper level low pressure over the West. No major weather issues through mid week as we continue to deal with a weak upper low off the Central Coast.
All winds down by 00Z Wed as the front completes passage and the parent trof soon follows. It'll sweep in a pleasantly cooler and drier air mass, which results in 40s/50s for lows, and 70s for highs to finish out the week. Cigs will begin to lift tomorrow afternoon behind the cold front. Winds will be calm, to light and variable overnight but will switch around to be out of the north tomorrow at 5-10 kts behind the cold front.
The Boise metro area is expected to avoid a frost, with lows forecast to be warmer, between 38 and 42 degrees. A warming trend will begin on Tuesday with a building high pressure system for sunny skies.
The trough, along with earlier day time heating has resulted in nebulous flow across the Keys this evening. Troughing will continue to stew with a very moist environment over the Bahamas through the overnight period. The combination of broad ridging across the eastern United States and adjacent Atlantic and a weak trough pushing westward through South Florida is resulting in light and variable breezes on Keys waters this evening. Breezes are expected to become prevailing northeasterly as the trough washes out and the effects of earlier day time heating dissipate.
800 PM EDT Mon Oct 6 2025 A cold front will approach from the west tonight before gliding east across the local area on Tuesday.
A filling low pressure system over eastern Louisiana will continue to drift north, but a weak moisture boundary along the western periphery of the low should move into the eastern parts of our forecast area this afternoon. This boundary is moving underneath a strong subsidence inversion, so the additional lift and moisture will be limited to the lower troposphere--generally below 700 mb or 10,000 ft. A cold front, currently stalled over the Panhandles and Kansas, will nudge south and move through North and Central Texas tomorrow.
856 PM MDT Mon Oct 6 2025 - Cold, near to below freezing, temperatures tonight.
706 PM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025 A weak upper Atlantic ridge will build eastward over the Deep South and northern Gulf through Tuesday as the long wave trough passes over the Great Lakes and Ohio River Valley Tuesday night.
-Cooler and more seasonal conditions should return by mid to late week in the wake of a cold front Tuesday night, with settled weather prevailing thereafter. Latest mesoanalysis early Mon mrng depicted broad, and highly positively tilted H500 troughing extending acrs much of the CONUS, w/ ridging residing over the Ern and NErn US coastline. At the sfc, inverted sfc pressure troughing was noted, extending SW to NE fm the OK/TX panhandle region, towards the Upper Midwest. Uncertainties still remain for now, and the approximate location of the highest QPF footprint may depend on where a modest H850 LLJ develops acrs the Mid-South later Mon evng. (00Z TAFS) Scattered rain continues to rotate generally SW/S around the west side of the low centered over SRN/SERN AR late this afternoon.
- A cold front will pass through Tuesday afternoon and evening, bringing cooler temperatures for the remainder of the week.
- A low pressure system and cold front will then bring windy conditions, increased shower activity, and mostly mountain snow this weekend. Transient upper level ridging will continue to build in over the Northern Rockies through the overnight hours, with a weak disturbance within northwest flow diving southeast over mainly Hill, Blaine, Chouteau, and Fergus Counties. This ideal cooling combined with cool drainage from the recently snow covered mountains will set the stage for the more cold prone valleys to overachieve on cooling tonight, and thus the lowering of temperatures. - Moldan - Meteorological Overview: Upper-level ridging will build across the Northern Rockies and Montana today and tomorrow, resulting in general dry and mild conditions for much of the workweek following another cold night tonight.
As of 2 AM a surface cold front is draped from Pittsfield, IL to Mexico, MO and making its way southeast through the forecast area.
- Cooler weather moves in for a couple days before temperatures warm back above seasonal averages. The 850mb cold front which is partially sustaining these storms is slowly working its way toward the south and east with storms expecting to follow along with it as it progresses. Movement of the front starts to accelerate around 3-5 AM as the 500mb jet begins to migrate southward being pushed along by a ridge migrating into the region. Cool stable air combined with this ridging brings temperatures back down to more seasonal level with highs in the upper 60s to near 70 degrees.
312 AM CDT Tue Oct 7 2025 - Scattered showers with isolated lightning ending around to just after sunrise today, then drying with slightly warmer temperatures.
- Isolated showers and storms will be possible along the coast and in the Gulf waters through the next several days - Hazardous marine conditions possible later in the week due to increasing winds High pressure continues to build into the state, resulting in a rather benign pattern for inland areas. A weak boundary will move in from the north later in the week, bringing drier and slightly cooler weather for the weekend. Afternoon highs through mid-week will run above normal with temperatures in the low to mid 90s and overnight lows in the low to mid 70s. Following the passing of the weak frontal boundary, daytime highs will be in the upper 80s to low 90s with overnight lows in the low to mid 60s.
- Cooler temperatures this week with highs in the 70s and overnight lows in the 50.
204 AM CDT Tue Oct 7 2025 - Early morning showers and storms - Drier and warmer through the rest of the week A mid level wave is currently moving across the greater region early this morning. Once again, took the cooler side of high temperature guidance with the lingering cloud cover around. Lows tonight should range from the upper 40s north to the lower 50s south.
- Low chances for showers and thunderstorms will accompany a weak cold front for parts of East and Central Texas this afternoon, but most areas will remain rain-free. /NEW/ /Through Tonight/ Above normal temperatures continue today despite the arrival of a cold front which is set to move through the area beginning this morning.
Low pressure systems can be challenging to predict, as a slight difference in their expected movement can result in drastic changes in the forecast. Not only did the low move about 50 miles to the east of its forecasted location, it also moved northward quicker than expected. The aforementioned low pressure system will be northeast of our area, but the leading edge of a long-wave trough will move into the region. Ahead of this trough, an abundance of low level moisture will be in place across the region, with PWAT values around 1. As the upper trough continues to push southward today, it will eventually help bring a cool front into the region by this evening.