Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
The air mass is very moist with PWATs near 2 inches and dew pts in the lower 70s, so locally heavy rainfall in excess of two inches or more in a relatively short time is a threat.
1257 PM CDT Mon Jul 29 2024 (Today and tonight) Upper level ridging has moved into the area this morning, and will strengthen over the next few days. With the upper level ridge over west central, our weather will continue to be quiet. Temperatures will again warm 2 to 3 degrees across the area as not only will the ridge slightly strengthen, but 850mb temperatures will also warm 1 to 3 degrees across the area.
Temperatures will continue to run a few degrees above normal through at least mid-week as high pressure stays centered east of the region. By the latter portion of the week, temperatures will begin to slowly increase, with shower and thunderstorm activity potentially returning to the lower deserts by the weekend. Current analysis reveals the sub-tropical high has been nudged towards the Southern Plains due to an area of weak troughing moving off the eastern Pacific over the West Coast. The best chances of seeing showers and thunderstorms will be focused over the high-terrain of southern Gila County, and along enhanced terrain features of far southern Maricopa County.
As advertised, a residual boundary from early this morning blossomed into a well-defined cumulus cloud line along portions of the Lower and Middle Keys. Depending on whether a given island community has seen rain or not, temperatures are ranging from the lower 80s to the lower 90s. High pressure bridging back across the North Atlantic will dictate the sensible weather over the next several days.
However, North Bend did report some light drizzle through the night with the lower stratus. The cold front still appears offshore and will approach the forecast area later this evening.
(This evening through Tuesday) The upper level ridge will remain the dominant weather feature and remain over the area through Tuesday. Temperatures will be warm again tonight, with lows in the low to mid 70s. (Tuesday night through next Monday) The upper level ridge will remain over the are and strengthen through the end of the week, with hot and dry weather persisting.
Tonight and Tuesday: An upper trough swinging through the region will bring some much needed changes to the Inland NW for the next 24 hours. Unfortunately, the progressive nature of this system and some initial moistening of the low level air mass will result in only light precipitation amounts for most. The one exception is the Palouse into the Central Panhandle Mountains where a stronger wave associated with the trough is shown to track into these areas overnight into Tuesday morning.
Another mild night is expected across the Tennessee Valley with overnight lows only forecast to drop into the low to mid 70s.
101 PM EDT Mon Jul 29 2024 Low pressure will weaken while tracking west of the region today. High pressure will then remain southeast of the region Tuesday and Tuesday night.
This is where the highest 850 hPa theta-e values are being observed. A broad, upper level trough is shown by models to remain over the eastern U.
Mid-level high pressure will continue to build and become the dominate feature over Deep South Texas through the short term period with dry conditions expected. At the surface, high pressure over the Gulf interacting with low pressure over the Sierra Madre, will lead to breezy conditions both this afternoon and Tuesday afternoon, mainly along the coast and into the Mid-Valley.
/26/ (Monday through Tuesday) Upper ridging continues to build across the ArkLaTex this morning, and will do so through the afternoon. Under the influence of the ridge, cloud coverage will be harder to come by, so temperatures this afternoon will be closer to normal for many. CDT this evening, but morning guidance does support the possibility of expanding the Heat Advisory into Tuesday as another afternoon of dry conditions under the upper ridge, and elevated dew point temperatures would warrant heat products. RK (Tuesday Night through Monday) The upper ridge and accompanied heat will prevail through mid- week. Highs will continue to climb into the mid to upper 90's as far as into the weekend even as the base of the ridge slides west and troughing north and east of the FA just barely influences the ArkLaTex.
/Issued 1244 PM CDT Mon Jul 29 2024/ /Through Tuesday/ A dominant upper level ridge will keep hot and quiet weather in place. Tuesday will be slightly warmer for most locations with afternoon highs ranging from the mid 90s to 101 degrees.
1242 PM CDT Mon Jul 29 2024 (Today through Tuesday Night) Ridging across the Southern Plains/Gulf amplifies early this week, with 500mb heights progged to reach up to 593-595 dam. This is further supported by rising 850mb temperatures of 17-20C, southwesterly flow in the lower levels and sparse cloud cover during the afternoon.
1011 AM CDT Mon Jul 29 2024 Skies are mostly cloudy across the Mid-South this morning with temperatures in the low to mid 80s. Heat index values are currently in the low to mid 90s at this time. With temperatures expected to reach the low to mid 90s this afternoon, heat index value are forecast to reach or exceed 105 degrees. ARS Hot and humid conditions return today as an upper-level ridge continues to build in. Daily highs will be in the low to mid 90s today, increasing into the mid to upper 90s Tuesday, through the end of the workweek.
Max temperatures will top out in the low 90s. By the evening, overnight lows will get down to the low 70s for inland locations and the mid to upper 70s across coastal locations.
(Tonight through Tuesday night) Mid-level ridging has built across the state and the PWATs have returned back towards the typical seasonal levels. The afternoon highs today and again Tuesday will range from the low 90s in the Hill Country to near or slightly above 100 degrees for the areas near the Rio Grande. The dew points are a bit elevated from the result of the higher than average soil moistures with the recent rains.
219 PM EDT Mon Jul 29 2024 High pressure will shift offshore today bringing hotter and more humid conditions through the week with dangerous heat possible late in the week. High pressure migrates offshore late in the day and allows low level flow to become predominately southerly. This will bring a return of warmer and humid air this evening and overnight. Lows back in the low 70s.
1200 PM CDT Mon Jul 29 2024 (Today and tonight) Mid to upper level ridging overhead today and tonight will result in hot temperatures and a precipitation-free forecast. NBM has been a bit on the high side while METMOS has definitely been on the low side.
Mainly, will see more clouds and cooler onshore flow today. By Wed, high pressure builds over the western USA, bringing warmer temperatures to start August. Key Messages: 1) Cooler with onshore flow today into Tuesday. 3) Warmer later this week, with inland highs in lower to mid 90s. But, with the onshore flow, clouds (and rain for those fortunate areas), it will be cooler today. Will keep areas to south and east of Salem a bit warmer (in the mid to upper 70s) where will be drier and perhaps bit more in way of cloud breaks later today. Morning clouds will give way to partly cloudy skies, with afternoon temperatures a bit warmer, but still looks that temperatures mid to upper 70s inland north, to lower 80s inland south, with 60s along coast. Rest of the week looks to be dry, and warmer.
Mid-level high pressure is building in from the east, which will maintain relatively dry conditions in the short term. Highs are expected to range from the low to upper 90s, while lows will be in the mid to upper 70s.
Breezes will clock around to the east to southeast, as high pressure rebuilds across the region.
Toward the end of the week, temperatures return to warmer than normal values. Tomorrow morning, a cold front moving through will bring slight chances showers along the Continental Divide/Central MT. A closed upper level area of higher heights is located over southern United States, with the associated upper level ridge pressing northward. Additionally, an upper level trof approaches Montana from the west. This trof removes mass from the ridge and an upper level westerly flow develops across The Northern Rocky Mountain Front. The passage of the afore mentioned upper level trof favors an up to 35% chance of scattered thunderstorms across most of our forecast area.
1212 PM CDT Mon Jul 29 2024 (Today through Tuesday afternoon) High pressure migrates east from eastern New Mexico to North Texas over the next couple of days. An upper trough moving across far West Texas will combine with orographic lift in the Davis and Guadalupe mountains to provide low rain chances there.
1217 PM CDT Mon Jul 29 2024 Skies are mostly cloudy across the Mid-South this morning with temperatures in the low to mid 80s. Heat index values are currently in the low to mid 90s at this time. With temperatures expected to reach the low to mid 90s this afternoon, heat index value are forecast to reach or exceed 105 degrees. ARS Hot and humid conditions return today as an upper-level ridge continues to build in. Daily highs will be in the low to mid 90s today, increasing into the mid to upper 90s Tuesday, through the end of the workweek.
Guidance indicates an additional draw of mid-level moisture from this low into southeastern Arizona, which along with the added ascent may produce additional showers and thunderstorms even through Tuesday morning. By Tuesday afternoon, southeastern Arizona is forecast to be on the wrong side of an impulse ejected through this closed low, which should create a "lower" grade monsoon day.
612 PM CDT Mon Jul 29 2024 (This evening through Tuesday) The center of an upper level ridge has moved directly overhead per water vapor imagery. Mid level monsoon moisture was also observed rotating around the west side of the ridge. A surface cyclone has strengthened in lee of the Rockies in eastern Colorado with a pressure trough extending southward through eastern New Mexico. A similar situation is expected for Tuesday as the upper level ridge continues to edge eastward into central Texas.
Temperatures are expected to remain a few degrees below normal early this week as a dry upper level trough sits over the area. Ensembles and high res short term models are in good agreement through mid week showing a slow (1-3 degree per day) increase in temperatures through mid week and beyond as high pressure slowly builds near the 4 corners region to near 600dam.
Isolated storms will form mainly across the higher terrain each day. Thankfully winds in the lower foothills of Larimer county haven't been as strong as some forecast guidance suggested, though there are a couple of channels of enhanced WSWerly flow to watch for as we get through the evening hours. The synoptic pattern remains anchored in place, with a large ridge still slowly building across the south-central CONUS. Temperatures should be a couple of degrees warmer than today, meaning most of the metro will flirt with 100F highs by the afternoon.
935 PM EDT Mon Jul 29 2024 High pressure ridge will remain centered offshore through the week gradually building eastwards as the week continues. Warmer tonight, as cloud cover and southerly flow keep lows in the 70s.
627 PM EDT Mon Jul 29 2024 High pressure ridge will remain centered offshore through the week gradually building eastwards as the week continues. Otherwise, we have a warmer night in store as widespread cloud cover and southerly flow keep us in the low 70s inland, mid to upper 70s for beaches.
Temperatures as of 10 PM are in the low 80s with dew points in the low to mid 70s. Warm and muggy conditions will persist, with overnight lows in the low to mid 70s.
The mid-level ridge is firmly planted over the south-central states and will remain the dominant feature thru tonight. Temperatures will be slow to cool overnight, with low temperatures ranging from the mid 70s to the low 80s. (Tonight through Monday) An upper level ridge will remain in place the next several days, slightly intensifying and expanding. For Tuesday, this will mean most locations will be a couple of degrees warmer than today with no appreciable decrease in moisture.
While southerly flow will continue, deeper mixing in the afternoon should result in slightly warmer temperatures and slightly lower humidity.
Currently - Complicated troughing over the eastern United States and nearby Atlantic has fractured a surface through mid level Atlantic ridge. Short Term Update - The surface through lower level ridge will try to reestablish itself across the Florida Peninsula overnight as the mainland cools. Expect overnight lows in the lower 80s with dew points, away from convective influences, remaining in the mid 70s. Weak ridging across the Florida Peninsula, along with night time cooling, will result in light and varying surface winds firming up slightly out of the east to southeast overnight.
A broad, upper level trough is shown by models to remain over the eastern U.
621 PM CDT Mon Jul 29 2024 (This evening through Tuesday) The upper level ridge will remain the dominant weather feature and remain over the area through Tuesday. Temperatures will be warm again tonight, with lows in the low to mid 70s. (Tuesday night through next Monday) The upper level ridge will remain over the are and strengthen through the end of the week, with hot and dry weather persisting.
A low cloud deck will arrive Tuesday morning ahead of a cold front with low-VFR to MVFR ceilings possible.
Unusually cooler and wetter weather today will linger into Tuesday, then begin to trend drier and warmer by midweek.
Meanwhile, an upper-level ridge axis is located over the Southern Plains.
654 PM CDT Mon Jul 29 2024 (Tonight through Tuesday night) Mid-level ridging has built across the state and the PWATs have returned back towards the typical seasonal levels. The afternoon highs today and again Tuesday will range from the low 90s in the Hill Country to near or slightly above 100 degrees for the areas near the Rio Grande. The dew points are a bit elevated from the result of the higher than average soil moistures with the recent rains.
Tuesday looks to be much of the same but with warmer, drier, and stronger winds.
646 PM CDT Mon Jul 29 2024 (This evening through Tuesday Night) For much of the remainder of the work week, upper level ridging overhead will control the narrative uninterrupted, and that narrative may be succinctly stated as: hot and quiet.
In addition to the heavy rainfall/tstm threat, a strong upper ridge pattern over the Plains states will begin to nudge eastward into parts of the region, allowing highs later today to climb into the mid/perhaps upper 90s, mainly along/west of the I-65 corridor.
1213 AM CDT Tue Jul 30 2024 (This evening through Tuesday) The upper level ridge will remain the dominant weather feature and remain over the area through Tuesday. Temperatures will be warm again tonight, with lows in the low to mid 70s.
, hot temperatures about 3-5 degrees warmer than normal, precipitation chances remaining to the west and north of the forecast area, and periodically breezy south to southwest winds during the daylight hours.
Winds are in the process of slowly clocking around from the northeast as the Atlantic Ridge builds back westward across the region. This will impinge on an anticyclone situated across the eastern Gulf of Mexico.
With a dry trough moving through the Pacific Northwest, we'll continue our streak of comfortable temperatures.
An upper level ridge begins to shift east towards the Southeast.
Temperatures as of 10 PM are in the low 80s with dew points in the low to mid 70s. Warm and muggy conditions will persist, with overnight lows in the low to mid 70s. The ridge axis will become more pronounced across the waters Wednesday, causing winds to become south-southwest across the Volusia waters and south- southeast across the Treasure Coast waters. A northward shift in the ridge axis will lead to more southeasterly flow across the local waters, which would further assist the movement inland of the east coast sea breeze.
A trough of low pressure that moved into the Pacific NW yesterday, is on track to bring widespread rain showers and scattered thunderstorms to the Northern Rockies throughout the day today. Ensemble models remain stable with showing the highest rainfall amounts over north-central Idaho and west-central Montana through the day into Wednesday morning.
Ridging will begin to build in over the Desert Southwest on Wednesday, opening the door for the return of monsoonal moisture during the second half of the week. Temperatures will heat right back up to hotter than normal as this ridge sets up over the region.
1210 AM CDT Tue Jul 30 2024 (This evening through Tuesday) The center of an upper level ridge has moved directly overhead per water vapor imagery. Mid level monsoon moisture was also observed rotating around the west side of the ridge. A surface cyclone has strengthened in lee of the Rockies in eastern Colorado with a pressure trough extending southward through eastern New Mexico. A similar situation is expected for Tuesday as the upper level ridge continues to edge eastward into central Texas.
Hi-res models are struggling to get a hold on convection in this low shear environment. CAPE across the region is still more than enough for storm initiation, but the low shear is leading to nearly stationary storms. Wednesday currently looks to be the hottest day, when heat indices in the low to mid nineties in northwest Wisconsin and along the I-35 corridor. A shallow upper level trough will move through the Northern Plains early Tuesday. Wednesday, most of the day will be dry as a fast moving ridge moves over the Upper Midwest. Then a deeper trough than Tuesday will move through the Dakotas into our area.
Max temperatures will top out in the low 90s. By the evening, overnight lows will get down to the low 70s for inland locations and the mid to upper 70s across coastal locations. Highs will be in the low to mid 90s inland with upper 80s to near 90 degrees at the beaches. Wednesday, mid/upper level troughing along the SE US coast will begin to slowly lift away into the western Atlantic while ridging aloft to the west near the ArkLaTex region builds back to the east.
/Issued 221 PM CDT Mon Jul 29 2024/ /Wednesday and Beyond/ Hot temperatures and mostly sunny skies will persist through the end of the week as North and Central Texas remain beneath strong mid-/upper-level ridging.
An upper trough will swing through the area later this evening with upper ridging building into the area later tonight. As the upper ridge builds in, any showers will end but the onshore flow will increase resulting in cloud cover pushing inland into the Umpqua Divide and into the Rogue Valley later tonight into Tuesday morning.
Continued theme of surface ridging across the peninsula this morning while aloft a weakness extending southward down the E Seaboard from a slowly departing closed low over New England is wedged over the peninsula between ridging centered over the Gulf of Mexico and W Atlantic.
(Today) Dome of high pressure has become the dominate feature across the Southern Plains and will remain that way today. the low level thermal ridge is expected to expand eastward slightly which should allow for afternoon temperatures to be at or a degree or so warmer today compared to yesterday.
426 AM EDT Tue Jul 30 2024 - Confidence continues on the lower side regarding the potential of impacts from 1 or more thunderstorm complexes, mainly tonight through Wednesday night.
1235 AM CDT Tue Jul 30 2024 (Tonight through Tuesday night) Mid-level ridging has built across the state and the PWATs have returned back towards the typical seasonal levels. The afternoon highs today and again Tuesday will range from the low 90s in the Hill Country to near or slightly above 100 degrees for the areas near the Rio Grande. The dew points are a bit elevated from the result of the higher than average soil moistures with the recent rains.
/44/ (This evening through Tuesday Night) For much of the remainder of the work week, upper level ridging overhead will control the narrative uninterrupted, and that narrative may be succinctly stated as: hot and quiet.
342 AM EDT Tue Jul 30 2024 A frontal boundary and low pressure system will move through the area later today into Wednesday with some showers and thunderstorms.
We will see slightly cooler than normal high temperatures around the region once again today as weak troughing to our north continues to move off to the east. Upper level ridging is forecast to fill in over our area as the vacating trough will move near Montana. While the warming trend begins, overnight recoveries will help keep overnight temperatures in the low 60s to mid 70s, which will help keep HeatRisk in check in the short term.
- Isolated thunderstorms possible Wednesday as a weak cold front drops southeastward through the area.
/NEW/ /Wednesday Onward/ Hot and breezy weather will greet us once again on Wednesday thanks to a strengthening ridge aloft and a tight pressure gradient at the surface. Temperatures will be on the increase through the end of the work week as high pressure remains strong overhead.
An area of showers behind a cold front extends from near Burns to McCall westward into central Oregon. The cold front is moving through the Treasure Valley, including Boise, accompanied by gusts to around 30 mph. Showers persist in the north on Tuesday as an upper trough moves through the region. Improvement to VFR expected Tuesday in northwest winds behind a cold front. A line of showers has developed along the leading cold front, which will push into SE Oregon late this afternoon and into w-central Idaho this evening. The next surge of heat will begin on Wednesday as an upper ridge expands into the Great Basin.
On Wednesday an upper- level ridge begins to move above North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana. This will bring warmer temperatures and dry weather through the weekend.
The mid-level ridge is firmly planted over the south-central states and will remain the dominant feature thru tonight. Temperatures will be slow to cool overnight, with low temperatures ranging from the mid 70s to the low 80s.
(Today through Wednesday) Mid and upper level ridging will build into the area from the northeast through the short-term. With the exception of a stray shower or two today across Lavaca and DeWitt counties, the region will remain dry and warmer today and Wednesday.
A 592-594 dm ridge will prevail across the state today and tomorrow. The highest dewpoints are expected to be located across the central and eastern zones of the FA today. The main story is that the ridge will continue across the greater region. The mid level ridge will slowly retrograde enough to out west by the end of the business week. This supports the notion of slightly "cooler" highs. Very little change in the overall weather pattern is expected to finish out the weekend into the next business week with a ridge to our west. A sfc trof will continue Tuesday with S winds 10-25 kt across the terminals.
Troughing will continue to work east, exiting off into southeast Ontario by early this evening. Building mid-level heights and weak surface ridging will build in its wake across the area tonight.
1241 AM CDT Tue Jul 30 2024 (This evening through Wednesday) No surprises here, the upper level ridge across the area will continue to build thru the short term.
1148 PM CDT Mon Jul 29 2024 (Tonight through Wednesday night) Upper level ridge is influencing the sensible weather over the forecast area helping to suppress any shower activity.
(Wednesday Night through next Tuesday) The northwest zonal flow we have been seeing will die out by the end of the week along with the ridging to the west. This weekend the rain chances will lower more and the max temperatures are expected to hang around the low to mid 90s. With a upper level low pressure system developing to our north, we can expect higher rain/thunderstorm chances mid weekend.
328 AM EDT Tue Jul 30 2024 A frontal boundary and low pressure system will move through the area later today into Wednesday with some showers and thunderstorms.