Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
438 AM MST Thu Jan 9 2025 - Windy with snow/some blowing snow early this morning quickly ending - Good chance (50%+) for snow and gusty winds this weekend - Heavy upslope snow may occur for the favored areas of the northern Black Hills this weekend 09z surface analysis had cold front from MN through south- central SD into western NE with 2-4mb/3hr pressure rises behind it. Water vapour loop had upper trough from southern MB into CO with 80kt jet streak on the front side, which is providing synoptic support to precipitation shield stretching from eastern ND to eastern WY. Tonight/Friday, upper ridge builds into the northern plains as upper trough moves into the Pacific Northwest. Friday night into the weekend, upper trough moves through the northern plains bringing increasing chances for (mostly) snow.
Gusty conditions this afternoon isolated to the ridgetops of the interior North Bay.
- Freezing drizzle will be possible across central Kansas this afternoon ahead of the snow this evening.
430 AM EST Thu Jan 9 2025 High pressure will move across the area today and tonight. High pressure will build back in for the weekend. High pressure centered in the mid south early this morning will build northeast into the region through the day. Highs will be in the lower to mid 20s. High pressure centered over the area at the beginning of the period will shift east tonight allowing for winds to become southerly. Short wave over the southern Plains early Friday morning will lift northeast as northern and southern stream troughs phase in a positive tilt.
932 AM EST Thu Jan 9 2025 The region will remain between low pressure to the northeast and high pressure to the west through Friday.
540 AM CST Thu Jan 9 2025 - Patchy freezing fog will persist south of a Taylorville to Martinsville line through mid-morning. After cold early morning lows near zero in some spots along/south of the I-72 corridor, afternoon highs will range from the lower 20s near the Indiana border to the upper 20s west of the Illinois River. An upper low evident on the latest water vapor imagery over northwest Mexico will shift eastward today. 00z Jan 9 models are in excellent agreement from previous runs, showing the low tracking eastward across the Deep South tonight through Friday.
- A wintry mix of freezing rain, sleet, and snow is possible through early morning. A mix of sleet, snow, freezing rain, as well as rain, is then expected later today.
Above-normal high temperatures will continue through the weekend with the warmest daytime highs expected today as ridging prevails aloft. Ridging will remain overtop NorCal through the weekend, keeping conditions dry with periodically breezy north to east winds through the weekend.
While we haven't see much fog so far, we did keep patchy dense freezing fog up and down the Snake Plain, Stanley Basin and most mountain valleys south and east of the Snake Plain. Temperatures where the inversion holds and/or we see low clouds hanging tough, look for highs to not get out of the low to mid 20s.
310 AM CST Thu Jan 9 2025 - Patchy freezing fog will persist south of a Taylorville to Martinsville line through mid-morning. After cold early morning lows near zero in some spots along/south of the I-72 corridor, afternoon highs will range from the lower 20s near the Indiana border to the upper 20s west of the Illinois River. An upper low evident on the latest water vapor imagery over northwest Mexico will shift eastward today. 00z Jan 9 models are in excellent agreement from previous runs, showing the low tracking eastward across the Deep South tonight through Friday.
645 AM EST Thu Jan 9 2025 High pressure will move across the area today and tonight. High pressure will build back in for the weekend. High pressure centered in the mid south early this morning will build northeast into the region through the day. Highs will be in the lower to mid 20s. High pressure centered over the area at the beginning of the period will shift east tonight allowing for winds to become southerly. Short wave over the southern Plains early Friday morning will lift northeast as northern and southern stream troughs phase in a positive tilt.
431 AM EST Thu Jan 9 2025 High pressure will move across the area today and tonight. High pressure will build back in for the weekend. High pressure centered in the mid south early this morning will build northeast into the region through the day. Highs will be in the lower to mid 20s. High pressure centered over the area at the beginning of the period will shift east tonight allowing for winds to become southerly. Short wave over the southern Plains early Friday morning will lift northeast as northern and southern stream troughs phase in a positive tilt.
221 AM MST Thu Jan 9 2025 - Windy with snow/some blowing snow early this morning quickly ending - Good chance (50%+) for snow and gusty winds this weekend - Heavy upslope snow may occur for the favored areas of the northern Black Hills this weekend 09z surface analysis had cold front from MN through south- central SD into western NE with 2-4mb/3hr pressure rises behind it. Water vapour loop had upper trough from southern MB into CO with 80kt jet streak on the front side, which is providing synoptic support to precipitation shield stretching from eastern ND to eastern WY. Tonight/Friday, upper ridge builds into the northern plains as upper trough moves into the Pacific Northwest. Friday night into the weekend, upper trough moves through the northern plains bringing increasing chances for (mostly) snow.
315 PM EST Thu Jan 9 2025 High pressure will slowly build into the region bringing a welcome break to the lake effect by tonight.
This area is likely to note the highest snowfall accumulations by Friday morning, with a swath of 5-8" totals now expected here, a continued increase over past updates.
Synoptic overview and current conditions: Water vapor imagery and upper level analysis show the upper low south of the 4 corners region with a strong upper level jet(100-120kts) southeast of the low from TX into northeast OK. Highs on Friday will be in the low to mid 30s.
1058 AM CST Thu Jan 9 2025 - Patchy freezing fog will persist south of a Taylorville to Martinsville line through mid-morning. After cold early morning lows near zero in some spots along/south of the I-72 corridor, afternoon highs will range from the lower 20s near the Indiana border to the upper 20s west of the Illinois River. An upper low evident on the latest water vapor imagery over northwest Mexico will shift eastward today. 00z Jan 9 models are in excellent agreement from previous runs, showing the low tracking eastward across the Deep South tonight through Friday.
Upper level ridge will maintain current wx until Friday afternoon when a trough from the Gulf of Alaska comes in with a cold front and snow showers for eastern Oregon, reaching western Idaho Friday evening. The trough should also break the inversion and end the air stagnation.
114 PM EST Thu Jan 9 2025 High pressure will move across the area today and tonight. High pressure will build back in for the weekend.
330 PM EST Thu Jan 9 2025 High pressure will move off to the east tonight.
104 PM EST Thu Jan 9 2025 High pressure building in from the west will end the lake snows from west to east, with dry weather tonight and Friday.
Southerly low-level flow has bumped temperatures towards freezing this afternoon with surface cold front moving into central Kansas currently. As the surface boundary and mid-level trough swing through the area this afternoon into early Friday morning, precipitation chances maximize, especially for areas along and south of Interstate 70. There could be a mix of freezing drizzle, sleet, and snow for a few hours this afternoon over north central Kansas before the column cools enough to support all snow by 6-7PM. The window for freezing drizzle is small enough to hold off on expanding the Winter Weather Advisory into this area. Snow exits early Friday morning as the longwave trough and surface front shift east.
1224 PM CST Thu Jan 9 2025 - Patchy freezing fog will persist south of a Taylorville to Martinsville line through mid-morning. After cold early morning lows near zero in some spots along/south of the I-72 corridor, afternoon highs will range from the lower 20s near the Indiana border to the upper 20s west of the Illinois River. An upper low evident on the latest water vapor imagery over northwest Mexico will shift eastward today. 00z Jan 9 models are in excellent agreement from previous runs, showing the low tracking eastward across the Deep South tonight through Friday.
1136 AM CST Thu Jan 9 2025 - Bitter and dangerously cold conditions with dense freezing fog possible early this morning mainly over areas with significant snow and ice cover. Decided to leave the Freezing Fog Advisory as is. Dense freezing fog appears to be a bigger concern in those areas. The one thing that is concerning for this event possibly underperforming is the upper trough being in two pieces.
Worth noting the high res models continue to show some heavier banding of snow, thus expect some notable variation in amounts through the warning and advisory areas.
A deep, very elongated trough moving across the central US today will bring more snow into the area tomorrow and tomorrow night. Therefore, it may take some time tomorrow morning for the lower levels to moisten up and accumulating snow to reach the ground.
09z surface analysis had cold front from MN through south- central SD into western NE with 2-4mb/3hr pressure rises behind it. Water vapour loop had upper trough from southern MB into CO with 80kt jet streak on the front side, which is providing synoptic support to precipitation shield stretching from eastern ND to eastern WY. Tonight/Friday, upper ridge builds into the northern plains as upper trough moves into the Pacific Northwest. Friday night into the weekend, upper trough moves through the northern plains bringing increasing chances for (mostly) snow.
A ridging pattern that is moving across the southeastern U.
1132 AM CST Thu Jan 9 2025 A cold drizzle is spreading over the area this morning as temperatures have risen above freezing albeit just barely in Cen LA. Low pressure will move from near the coast of Deep South Texas this morning to Lower Acadiana by early Friday.
1012 AM CST Thu Jan 9 2025 A cold drizzle is spreading over the area this morning as temperatures have risen above freezing albeit just barely in Cen LA. Low pressure will move from near the coast of Deep South Texas this morning to Lower Acadiana by early Friday.
1050 AM PST Thu Jan 9 2025 Gusty conditions this afternoon isolated to the ridgetops of the interior North Bay.
1218 PM EST Thu Jan 9 2025 The region will remain between low pressure to the northeast and high pressure to the west through Friday.
1108 AM EST Thu Jan 9 2025 High pressure will move across the area today and tonight. High pressure will build back in for the weekend.
This shift will lead to relatively warmer temperatures tomorrow morning (though still hitting freezing in a few spots), and then highs in the afternoon will also be quite a bit warmer (upper 60s to mid 70s).
KDDC radar observations early this afternoon reveal light to moderate snow has spread north from OK into southwestern and south-central KS, associated with a positively-tilted mid-level trough now emerging onto the High Plains as per recent water vapor satellite imagery. In addition, northerly winds will be elevated behind the cold front that has now cleared all of southwest KS, however the strongest winds will not overlap with the highest snow totals.
1041 AM MST Thu Jan 9 2025 - Windy with snow/some blowing snow early this morning quickly ending - Good chance (50%+) for snow and gusty winds this weekend - Heavy upslope snow may occur for the favored areas of the northern Black Hills this weekend 09z surface analysis had cold front from MN through south- central SD into western NE with 2-4mb/3hr pressure rises behind it. Water vapour loop had upper trough from southern MB into CO with 80kt jet streak on the front side, which is providing synoptic support to precipitation shield stretching from eastern ND to eastern WY. Tonight/Friday, upper ridge builds into the northern plains as upper trough moves into the Pacific Northwest. Friday night into the weekend, upper trough moves through the northern plains bringing increasing chances for (mostly) snow.
159 PM CST Thu Jan 9 2025 - Increased potential for freezing drizzle tonight, changing over to mainly light snow around daybreak Friday.
217 PM CST Thu Jan 9 2025 - A cold front moving through tonight will bring flurries at times from this evening into Friday afternoon.
625 PM EST Thu Jan 9 2025 High pressure will slowly build into the region bringing a welcome break to the lake effect by tonight.
657 PM EST Thu Jan 9 2025 High pressure will move off to the east tonight.
On the synoptic scale, deep troughing is present over the middle of the country, with low pressure tracking near the Great Lakes and a secondary system to our southwest. In the event that things don't line up quite right between the two systems in the trough, the 10th percentile snowfall totals are still 2-3 inches areawide so, while localized drier sectors that some models contain may materialize, impactful accumulations remain very likely. Despite the trough passage tonight into tomorrow morning, no real infusion of cold air enters the region as the light winds become southerly ahead of an Upper Midwest low.
958 PM EST Thu Jan 9 2025 High pressure will slowly build into the region bringing a welcome break to the lake effect by tonight.
247 PM MST Thu Jan 9 2025 High pressure is in full control of the weather across eastern Idaho. Low stratus and fog has plagued much of the Snake Plain, INL and even into the lower portions of the Wood River Valley near KSUN. This feature will bring accumulating snow to the region as well as increasing wind speeds, mainly in the South Hills, Magic Valley and parts of the lower Snake Plain where a Wind Advisory may be needed for some (or all) of the area.
That being said, from an impact standpoint, even the lower 1-2" inch amounts which occur outside of the current advisory will make for slick travel conditions Friday afternoon and evening, including the Friday evening rush hour. - Accumulating snow for Friday into Friday night Southwest winds will be on the increase later tonight and into Friday as a deeper trough approaches from the west. Then as the low level winds shift northwest later in the afternoon and evening the bands should align with this flow and that would support banding into the cities of Holland, Allegan and Kalamazoo.
629 PM EST Thu Jan 9 2025 High pressure will slowly build into the region bringing a welcome break to the lake effect by tonight.
Portions of north Mississippi are expected to receive up to 2 inches of snow and a tenth of an inch of freezing rain.
The higher amounts around 4 inches will occur southeast of I-70.
The low clouds could linger in these areas for the rest of the afternoon with brief clearing towards 4-5 pm before the low clouds return later this evening. High and mid mid clouds will increase later tonight as an upper trough and front approaches the coast, but it won't be enough to keep low clouds and fog from forming in the same areas as this morning. A cold front will push into the area Friday morning into Friday afternoon bringing an increasing chance of precipitation with the best chance along the coast, north of the Umpqua Divide and Cascades.
354 PM PST Thu Jan 9 2025 Gusty conditions this afternoon isolated to the ridgetops of the interior North Bay.
Near term guidance continues to develop some light precip amounts along this moisture transport axis and appears to be tied to the leading edge of some weak mid level moisture convergence in the 700-500 mb layer, along with an active zone of DPVA downstream of positively tilted upstream trough. Limiting factors for higher accums this event appear to be no real good northward moisture transport surge due to positively tilted, progressive nature of this trough. A deep, very elongated trough moving across the central US today will bring more snow into the area tomorrow and tomorrow night. Therefore, it may take some time tomorrow morning for the lower levels to moisten up and accumulating snow to reach the ground.
A cold front will approach the region late in the week leading to increasing rain chances and a chance for severe weather. Upper ridging moving in from the west may also act to suppress more widespread convective development. Weak upper level ridge will be moving off the coast early in the day. So the low to mid level lapse rates are a little steeper than previous days.
Lows tonight will fall into the lower 70's for most spots.
PoPs were updated to include the latest hi-res guidance, which captures this low probability. High pressure lingers over the western Atlantic through mid-week, before an approaching weak front nears east central Florida late week into the weekend.
Ridging continues across the area, keeping easterly flow with afternoon sea breezes near the coast each afternoon for the next few days.
This appears to be triggered by an elevated warm front along the leading edge of the LLJ, as MUCAPE rises to near 4,000 J/kg late in the evening. Thereafter, the continued strengthening of the low-level jet will likely induce further convection initiation and the development of an MCS, which guidance shows moving south- southeast into south central Oklahoma with more of a risk for damaging wind gusts. Most guidance indicates a rather warm-to-hot day with highs in the low 90s to low 100s.
933 PM EDT Mon Jun 3 2024 As high pressure moves away from the area, southerly flow will bring warmer and more humid conditions.
820 PM EDT Mon Jun 3 2024 High pressure will cover the western Atlantic and southeast United States through Tuesday.
A cold front will move across the Southeast late in the week increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms, and potentially severe weather. Overnight the upper level ridge over the area will continue moving slowly eastward and be along the coast by daybreak.
940 PM EDT Mon Jun 3 2024 Aside from an isolated afternoon shower or thunderstorm across the higher terrain, dry conditions are expected through Tuesday.
630 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024 (Rest of today through Tuesday) Upper level ridge is sitting off to our north with zonal flow setting up over us. With the cloud cover on Tuesday daytime highs will be a bit cooler in the mid 80s.
720 PM EDT Mon Jun 3 2024 As high pressure moves away from the area, southerly flow will bring warmer and more humid conditions.
Light to moderate easterlies prevail in the lower troposphere over the Florida Keys and adjacent coastal waters, south of a broad ridge. Current air temperatures in most Keys island communities are in the lower to mid 80s with dewpoint temperatures mostly in the lower 70s. the high-resolution convection allowing models indicate a modest increase in convective cell coverage over the Straits/Keys after about 0400 LT, which seems like a reasonable scenario given the current synoptic/mesoscale situation and trends. An Atlantic high pressure ridge will extend westward across the southeastern United States over the next few days. The ridge will shift southward later this week, resulting in slackening and more variable breezes.
740 PM EDT Mon Jun 3 2024 Aside from an isolated afternoon shower or thunderstorm across the higher terrain, dry conditions are expected through Tuesday.
However, the northern extent of this system looks to be much weaker than the southern, due to the higher instability and shear values that the southern portion of the MCS is moving into.
Much warmer temperatures and dry conditions are expected this week as high pressure builds over the Southwest.
(Today through Wednesday) A weak upper troughing (nearly zonal) synoptic regime maintains a presence over South Florida, with established easterly flow continuing within the boundary layer. Subtle mid-level ridging could suppress coverage at times, however expect scattered thunderstorm coverage over the interior at some point today. For the interior and west coast, temperatures may reach the low/mid 90s and heat indices may exceed 100, but should remain below advisory criteria. Perhaps a few degrees warmer by Wednesday, but still below heat advisory criteria for the populated east coast metro region.
The line of storms will be through eastern Minnesota by early evening & out of our area into central Wisconsin by midnight, with clearing skies and cooler temperatures by sunrise. Strong northwest flow & cooler temperatures aloft develop behind the front, which will likely allow for another round of scattered diurnally- driven showers and thunderstorms across central Minnesota and western Wisconsin. Daytime temperatures will be quote cooler behind the front with highs in the mid-60s to low-70s. The upper air pattern remains fairly consistent through the weekend which will lead to generally cooler and drier conditions. A few diurnally-driven showers are possible daily with the cooler temperatures aloft, but the support for these wanes by later in the week.
Can't rule out an isolated shower or t'storm over the higher elevations of the Catskills, and Susquehanna region. Otherwise, it will be mostly sunny and warm, with highs in the mid to upper 80s, except some low 80s for the higher elevations. Weak waves within the ridge aloft will kick off more showers and possibly an isolated thunderstorm Tuesday afternoon. Tomorrow night, high pressure remains in control and temperatures will remain warm overnight with lows only in the low 60s to upper 50s.
358 AM EDT Tue Jun 4 2024 Dry weather is expected for most of the region through tonight as weak high pressure across our region drifts to the New England coast.
A cold front will approach and pass through the area from the northwest later tonight into Wednesday morning.
A cold front will move across the Southeast late in the week increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms, and potentially severe weather. Overnight the upper level ridge over the area will continue moving slowly eastward and be along the coast by daybreak. Mean 500mb heights from global ensembles have been persistent digging an upper level trough from northern Plains into the Great Lakes region mid-week then closing off as it moves into the eastern US late-week.
120 AM EDT Tue Jun 4 2024 High pressure will cover the western Atlantic and southeast United States through Tuesday. A cold front approaches Wednesday bringing widespread showers and thunderstorms to the area.
Quasi-zonal pattern aloft upstream with a few weak disturbances making their way into the Plains, while a weak ridge builds over the eastern CONUS. Showers/storms should linger into Wednesday night before the cold front pushes through overnight. Highs on the day will be in the upper 70s to the lower 80s with overnight lows in the low-mid 60s.
Water vapor shows upper low/trof over the Pac NW moving into the Northern Rockies, with southwest flow aloft through the Northern Plains. At the surface, trof extends from eastern MT through eastern CO. Scattered showers/storms are expected to develop this afternoon into the evening across the region as surface trof associated with ejecting upper level energy crosses the area. Additional activity may develop across our northwest zones overnight as upper low moves near the MT/CNDN border. Developing upper ridge over the western CONUS with dry northwest flow expected mid to late week. Largely VFR conditions, though a band of localized MVFR conditions are possible along a secondary cold front as it passes through northeastern Wyoming and western South Dakota early this morning.
It should at least provide cloud cover, keeping highs in the lower to mid 80s again. Looking at Tuesday night, a later evening arrival of the cold front is now forecast, with most severe weather parameters waning before they enter our CWA. After 03z/05 a line of SHRA/TSRA with MVFR/IFR conditions will move into eastern Iowa along a strong cold front.