Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Fortunately, surface temps are still well above freezing so just a wet commute home just ahead of the holiday. Lacy (Through Tonight) A cold front is currently making its way through northeast Oklahoma and will continue to surge southeastward through the region this evening. Following the front will be gusty northerly winds and cooler temperatures making for a rather raw evening across much of the region. Otherwise, lows will generally range form the 20s across the north to near 40 at the Red River as the cooler air filters in.
Dry air aloft spreads across the region tonight as high pressure builds into Thursday. Cooler temperatures are expected, with clear skies and light winds will bring the possibility for overnight/morning fog and frost. As high pressure builds in, model soundings are showing the development of a persistent subsidence inversion.
557 PM CST Wed Nov 27 2024 Low pressure and an associated cold front will move through the Mid-South tonight with scattered to numerous showers and a few thunderstorms.
(Tonight through Thursday night) Warm and humid conditions this afternoon and tonight will give way to a big change tomorrow behind an approaching cold front. Some of the coldest air so far this fall comes in tomorrow night with lows in the 40s for inland areas in the lower 50s along the coast.
Temperatures will warm into the low to mid 80s this afternoon. Thursday will be even warmer today with highs in the mid to upper 80s.
A triple-point is over w central WI, with the warm front extending toward southern Lake MI and far sw lower MI. This low will fill as it moves east, over and east of Lk Superior today. Trailing the low, high pressure builds toward upper and central lower MI tonight.
500 mb trough moving slowly north with one short wave near Grand Forks and the other was moving into western Wisconsin. Area of rain slowly moving north but has slowed down with rain centered from Bemidji to Devils Lake and in this area rain amounts have been the highest overall with amounts up toward 0. 500 mb short wave trough exists from main upper low in southern Alberta thru south central ND to that short wave/vort moving into MN. Freezing temperatures may arise late this weekend but this will hinge on sub-synoptic scale things working out.
122 AM EDT Wed May 1 2024 Dense fog this morning as a cold front exits.
Otherwise, an non-impactful day is on tap over the region as high pressure keeps a dry and warm airmass in place. Expect mostly sunny skies and light winds as afternoon temperatures rise into the low to mid 80s.
It will turn warmer on Thursday before low pressure and onshore flow increase this weekend.
- Next cold front arrives late Wednesday. Water vapor shows broad upper low over the Pac NW and Northern Rockies, with distinct lead short wave over western SD. At the surface, low has shifted into central SD with cold front through our entire forecast area. Gusty southerly winds will develop on the plains of western SD ahead of the associated cold front, with cold frontal passage in northeast WY during the afternoon and western SD during the evening and overnight. Showers and few thunderstorms are likely with the passage of the cold front, with very limited chance for any severe storms.
1040 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024 Dry conditions and above normal temperatures will persist through Thursday as high pressure remains in place.
Some patchy to areas of fog can be expected late tonight, with the higher confidence of fog across northeast FL. Overnight, temperatures will dip to the around the mid 60s, with warmer temperatures along the St.
Weak surface ridging will build into the region overnight, providing subsidence which will erode most of the remaining cloud cover. KEY MESSAGES: - Warm and dry weather expected under high pressure on Thursday.
The cold front that had brought storms to the area last night has pushed south of the CWA. The cold front will finally push through the area by Thursday evening with just light showers in it's wake Thursday night.
Above normal temperatures are anticipated through the remainder of this week with highs reaching the low to mid 90s across the lower deserts. An upper level trough will swing through the Desert Southwest late this weekend resulting in breezy to locally windy conditions and slightly cooler temperatures across southcentral AZ and southeast CA. Latest mid-lvl wv imagery and streamline analysis reveals a broad trough stretching across the western CONUS and dry westerly flow aloft present over AZ and southeast CA. Amplification of the northern stream trough will cause mid-lvl hghts/thicknesses to decrease slightly today, promoting slightly cooler temperatures than we saw yesterday with lower desert highs reaching the upper 80s to low 90s this afternoon.
More typical afternoon breezes winds ensue on Thursday, as high pressure begins to gradually build back into Arizona for the weekend.
Another FREEZE WARNING remains in effect this morning up the ern Magic Valley/Snake Plain corridor, and as expected, quite a bit of cloud cover is going to make this one marginal with some locales dropping as low as 27-28 degF while others hold at or just above freezing. Otherwise, low pressure spinning just to our north will produce rain and snow showers and even a few thunderstorms across the region, with peaks in coverage this afternoon and again Thu afternoon.
334 AM MST Wed May 1 2024 Above normal temperatures are anticipated through the remainder of this week with highs reaching the low to mid 90s across the lower deserts. An upper level trough will swing through the Desert Southwest late this weekend resulting in breezy to locally windy conditions and slightly cooler temperatures across southcentral AZ and southeast CA. Latest mid-lvl wv imagery and streamline analysis reveals a broad trough stretching across the western CONUS and dry westerly flow aloft present over AZ and southeast CA. Amplification of the northern stream trough will cause mid-lvl hghts/thicknesses to decrease slightly today, promoting slightly cooler temperatures than we saw yesterday with lower desert highs reaching the upper 80s to low 90s this afternoon.
Otherwise, ridging is expected across the area today through Thursday. Subsidence from the ridging should result in only a few clouds and allow daytime high temperatures to heat up well into the 80s. Highs both days along the coast however will be in the low to mid 80s due to a slightly moderating onshore flow. Lows tonight generally ranging from the lower 60s over inland areas to the mid and upper 60s closer to the coast, and even a few lower 70s along the immediate beaches and barrier islands.
356 AM MDT Wed May 1 2024 - A cold front will cool temperatures 5-10 degrees across much of the region today and Thursday. A shallow trough crossing the Great Basin this morning is pushing a frontal boundary roughly oriented from Las Vegas to Cheyenne, WY across the west. A richer moisture plume along the front caught up in the jet max will help with saturating the lower layers this morning and producing some measurable rain across northeast Utah and northwest Colorado, as well as some mountain snow. The shallow nature of the trough will also mean less cold air spilling in southward. The broad, shallow trough to our north keeps a frontal boundary draped across the WY/CO state line Thursday.
KEY MESSAGES: - Warm and mostly sunny today under building high pressure. Otherwise, warm and dry weather is in store today with a weak upper ridge building overhead. A weak front pushes into the area from the northwest overnight but only brings a wind shift as convection will struggle to develop given the lack of moisture and ascent beneath the upper ridge.
207 AM PDT Wed May 1 2024 A cooler day is in store today behind the passage of a shallow cold front.
604 AM CDT Wed May 1 2024 Dry conditions with above normal temperatures will persist through Thursday morning as high pressure remains in place.
639 AM CDT Wed May 1 2024 Today and tonight: Warmer than normal temperatures and dry weather will continue through tonight. Early morning surface analysis had a 1016mb high centered over the Appalachians that was ridging back across our CWA. Tonight the moisture increase will help hold temperatures in the low to mid 60s.
1010 AM EDT Wed May 1 2024 Brief high pressure settles over the region today through Thursday leading to a warm and dry conditions.
417 AM CDT Wed May 1 2024 * Dry weather today with isolated showers and thunderstorms tonight into Thu mainly north of I-70 as warm front lifts north through southeast IL overnight and through central IL during Thu morning.
This warming trend will continue throughout the day as high pressure keeps its influence on our area keeping us high and dry.
-Warm/dry weather with lower humidity is in store for today and Thursday -Trending unsettled into the weekend with some periods of rain Sat/Sun A swath of counties, occupying primarily the Central Ridge and Valley Region of Pennsylvania, will experience areas of dense fog with visbys ranging from 1/4SM to as low as just a few hundred feet in some places.
Rain chances remain on the low side today with only a slight chance of a stray shower or storm, primarily over the interior during the late afternoon. Rain and storm chances remain on the low side again, so will only mention at LAL for VCSH during the late afternoon hours between 20-03Z. High pressure near Bermuda continues to ridge westward over Florida and into the Gulf of Mexico and will dominate the weather with mostly rain-free conditions through the week and into the weekend.
Low pressure spinning east of the Continental Divide will result in snow over about 4000 feet in elevation for the Glacier Park region, east of about Essex, this evening and overnight tonight. Backcountry travelers in Glacier Park and the surrounding Flathead, Swan, and Mission Ranges will experience winter-like conditions today and on Thursday as the higher peaks look at about 6 to 12 inches of new snow. The low will move east on Thursday. A broad trough will remain over the Northern Rockies on Thursday as the upper level jet stays to our south.
A ridge aloft should also keep cloud cover to a minimum, though some fair weather cumulus are expected in the afternoon. /NF/ Today and tonight: Warmer than normal temperatures and dry weather will continue through tonight. Early morning surface analysis had a 1016mb high centered over the Appalachians that was ridging back across our CWA. Tonight the moisture increase will help hold temperatures in the low to mid 60s.
Showers and Scattered Storms Tonight and Tomorrow: Even as previous wave is exiting northern Great Lakes, already looking at next mid level system ejecting out of mean trough out west. Another fairly messy system for our area with main wave moving northeast as it swings through trough. This makes sense given areas to the south could remain more in the warmer sector with higher instability going into late Thursday.
Thereafter, a cold front will move into the region and bring unsettled weather to the Mid-South through this weekend.
Expect visibilities and ceilings to lower to IFR levels across many locations between 05-09z with the highest likelihood of LIFR or VLIFR conditions from 08-13z.
Upper level height rises occur into Thursday afternoon as anomalous ridging settles in.
So, T-Td may touch briefly in the cooler north-central valleys before sunrise. 5H ridge crests overhead Thurs.
Winds may pick up a bit today with the passage of the to our north, otherwise we should expect typical dry and breezy Spring weather through the rest of the week before a much stronger trough impacts the area late this weekend. More typical afternoon breezes winds ensue on Thursday, as high pressure begins to gradually build back into Arizona for the weekend.
Upper level troughing moves off the eastern seaboard into the western Atlantic. This will allow for broad upper ridging to build in over the southeast U.
228 PM EDT Wed May 1 2024 (This afternoon through Thursday) An upper ridge will build over the area tonight and Thursday, with temperatures continuing to climb. Low temperatures tonight will range from the mid to upper 50s across the N to the lower 60s across the S. The highest elevations in the N should remain in the mid to upper 70s. Low temperatures Thursday night will be warmer than preceding nights, ranging from near 60 in the NE mountains to the lower to mid 60s elsewhere.
A few light showers have popped up this afternoon over far northern AZ with the trough passing to our north - these should quickly dissipate this evening, with fair skies and seasonably cool temperatures expected overnight. With the passage of this trough, expect generally featureless zonal flow across the Southwest through the rest of the week as a deep trough slowly drops into the Pacific Northwest.
Issued by National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 350 PM EDT Wed May 1 2024 A warm front lifts through tonight.
Thursday will generally be less active, as drier air starts to filter in with a mid-level ridge building over the area in the wake of a trough passing through today. Temperatures will range from the low to mid 80s over the East Coast metro areas to the upper 80s and near 90 over the interior sections today and tomorrow.
925 AM PDT Wed May 1 2024 Slightly cooler high temperatures today compared to yesterday.
1226 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024 (Rest of today through Thursday) Due to continuance of ridging influences surface and aloft, dry conditions with just some passing clouds here and there will be in store for mid state region through Thursday afternoon. Highs on Thursday might even be a degree or two warmer than today with highs mid to upper 80s, maybe even approaching in a few spots the 90 degree mark across the Nashville Metro Area, with lower 80s across Cumberland Plateau Region.
Daytime highs will be slightly warmer than normal while nighttime lows will be warmer than normal. The high temperature on Thursday is expected to be in the upper 80s to mid 90s (some +2-3F degrees above average) across Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley.
18Z surface analysis suggests a diffuse warm front stretches from north central Kansas to north of the Missouri River. Additionally, with the push of a cold front off the Panhandle of Nebraska, guidance continues to develop a complex/line of storms building southeastward overnight across the Sandhills through midnight. For the remainder of Thursday, it's looking like a rather rainy day, with persisting showers and thunderstorms as the cold front and associated upper short wave move through the region through the day.
AC3 Dry conditions with above normal temperatures will persist through Thursday morning as high pressure remains in place.
KEY MESSAGES: - Warm and mostly sunny today under building high pressure. ------------------------------------------------------------------ High pressure will continue to keep warm and dry weather in store today with a weak upper ridge building overhead. A weak front pushes into the area from the northwest overnight but only brings a wind shift as convection will struggle to develop given the lack of moisture and ascent beneath the upper ridge. Despite the mentioned front, cloud cover will be minimal with warmer than normal low temperatures tonight.
Meanwhile a cold front will be across the Big Country and is forecast to slowly move south through the evening hours, then stall somewhere across our central or southern counties.
The highest severe weather threat will be after midnight and into early Thursday near the Nebraska/Kansas border.
Initially a warm front will move through the area this afternoon bringing showers and drizzle with it as it passes through the area.
Water vapor imagery indicates a deep trough across the western CONUS slowly propagating to the east, along with a developing upper low across the northern Rockies.
(Current through Thursday night) Southeast surface winds have promoted increasing moisture across the region with afternoon dew points observed in the low to mid 70s. High temperatures range the low to mid 90s across much of Brush country and the Rio Grande Plains.
Temperatures will reach into the upper 80s inland, staying in the low to mid 80s along the coast. Overnight lows will be in the low to mid 60s with chances of patchy to widespread fog possible in the early morning hours.
The WRF/ARW suite of the high res models are much more bullish with rain amounts than the HRRR with some values near 5-7 inches in isolated places this afternoon.
(Rest of Today and Tonight) Mid level ridging continues to reinforce our summer like airmass yielding another afternoon of highs in the 80s. With dew points in the high 50s to low 60s you may find yourself commenting on the humidity for one of the first times this year. Clear conditions will allow temps to fall into the high 50s to low 60s tonight. Despite another night of cooler temperatures, fog development will be questionable.
High pressure sits across southeast South Dakota and northern Iowa early this afternoon. Moisture and warm air advection is forecast to develop this evening over central Iowa with the low level jet then veering into eastern Iowa, northwest Illinois and far northeast Missouri after 06 UTC. Depending on how the morinng convection evolves, there may be little in the way of CAPE across the area but models do show a surge in instability behind the warm front. High temperatures will be dependent on how long the rain is in the area but for now have highs ranging from the upper 60s northwest of Cedar Rapids to the lower 80s in west central Illinois.
Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: ~1004mb low pressure is currently situated just east of Lake Superior early this afternoon with a trailing cold/occluded front clearing eastern upper and the sunrise side of northern lower. Heading through this evening, mid-level height rises to be the rule as ridging amplifies over the western Great Lakes into Thursday.
(Rest of today through Thursday) Due to continuance of ridging influences surface and aloft, dry conditions with just some passing clouds here and there will be in store for mid state region through Thursday afternoon. Highs on Thursday might even be a degree or two warmer than today with highs mid to upper 80s, maybe even approaching in a few spots the 90 degree mark across the Nashville Metro Area, with lower 80s across Cumberland Plateau Region.
Drier and warmer conditions are expected Thursday.
A weakening cold front will drop south across the region from the northwest overnight, but with limited moisture and lift the only impact will be a shift in the light winds and a slight increase in cloud coverage.
1100 PM EDT Wed May 1 2024 -Warm/dry weather with lower humidity into Thursday -Trending unsettled into the weekend with some periods of rain and thunderstorms Sat/Sun A cold front, stretching from Northwest Ohio to Southern Indiana at 03Z, is progged to push into Central PA tonight. Therefore, expect nothing more than a few cumulus accompanying the low level jet later tonight, mainly over the northern counties. Min temps should be close to 10 degrees above climo in the warm advection regime ahead of the front, with daybreak readings ranging from around 50F over the NW Mtns, to the upper 50s across the Lower Susq Valley.
635 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024 (Current through Thursday night) Southeast surface winds have promoted increasing moisture across the region with afternoon dew points observed in the low to mid 70s. High temperatures range the low to mid 90s across much of Brush country and the Rio Grande Plains.
(This afternoon through Thursday) An upper ridge will build over the area tonight and Thursday, with temperatures continuing to climb. Low temperatures tonight will range from the mid to upper 50s across the N to the lower 60s across the S. The highest elevations in the N should remain in the mid to upper 70s. Low temperatures Thursday night will be warmer than preceding nights, ranging from near 60 in the NE mountains to the lower to mid 60s elsewhere.
605 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024 (Rest of Today and Tonight) Mid level ridging continues to reinforce our summer like airmass yielding another afternoon of highs in the 80s. With dew points in the high 50s to low 60s you may find yourself commenting on the humidity for one of the first times this year. Clear conditions will allow temps to fall into the high 50s to low 60s tonight. Despite another night of cooler temperatures, fog development will be questionable.
Satellite imagery shows another clear sky day over southern Arizona with a trough moving through the Great Basin. Breezy conditions are expected through the afternoon with occasional gusts to around 25 mph as the trough passes to our north.
810 PM EDT Wed May 1 2024 A warm front lifts through tonight.
A ridge of high pressure will keep conditions mild to warm across the region throughout late week. Breezy onshore winds will keep temperatures cooler near the coast.
High pressure off the Atlantic will lead to tranquil boating conditions through the period.
Currently - Complicated surface ridging across the northwestern Atlantic and the southeastern United States is maintaining light to gentle easterly breezes across the Keys this evening. Despite troughing from the mid levels up, there is a dearth of deep layered moisture with precipitable water around 1. Seasonably warm conditions prevail with temperatures just below 80 and dew points in the lower 70s. Short Term Update - The previously mentioned ridge complex will remain fairly stationary and keep winds gentle out of the east. Overall moisture profile is also expected to remain relatively steady with some increase at the highest levels. Expect overnight lows to be near normal in the mid 70s with dew points remaining in the lower 70s. Ridging will remain across the southeastern United States and keep winds light to gentle across Keys waters through the overnight period.
Dewpoints remaining on the lower side in the upper 50s to mid 60s, which is making it feel fairly comfortable humidity wise. (Rest of today through Thursday) Due to continuance of ridging influences surface and aloft, dry conditions with just some passing clouds here and there will be in store for mid state region through Thursday afternoon. Highs on Thursday might even be a degree or two warmer than today with highs mid to upper 80s, maybe even approaching in a few spots the 90 degree mark across the Nashville Metro Area, with lower 80s across Cumberland Plateau Region.
High pressure near Bermuda continues to ridge westward over Florida and into the Gulf of Mexico and will dominate the weather with mostly rain-free conditions through the week and into the weekend. High pressure builds in over the area and will dominate the weather through the period.
750 PM EDT Wed May 1 2024 -Warm/dry weather with lower humidity into Thursday -Trending unsettled into the weekend with some periods of rain and thunderstorms Sat/Sun A cold front, stretching from Western Lk Erie to Southern Indiana at 23Z, is progged to push into Central PA tonight. Therefore, expect nothing more than a few cumulus accompanying the low level jet later tonight, mainly over the northern counties. Min temps should be close to 10 degrees above climo in the warm advection regime ahead of the front, with daybreak readings ranging from around 50F over the NW Mtns, to the upper 50s across the Lower Susq Valley.
Thunderstorms will possible again Thursday afternoon and evening, as the dryline sets of across central sections and a weak cold front enters the Big Country during the late afternoon hours. Meanwhile a cold front will be across the Big Country and is forecast to slowly move south through the evening hours, then stall somewhere across our central or southern counties.
629 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024 (Rest of today through Thursday) Due to continuance of ridging influences surface and aloft, dry conditions with just some passing clouds here and there will be in store for mid state region through Thursday afternoon. Highs on Thursday might even be a degree or two warmer than today with highs mid to upper 80s, maybe even approaching in a few spots the 90 degree mark across the Nashville Metro Area, with lower 80s across Cumberland Plateau Region.