Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
We also cannot rule out isolated instances of flooding elsewhere across the area given the widespread nature of the storms and the highly efficient rain rates.
For the weekend - a weak trough moving west to east across the region will bring an increase in southwesterly winds, reaching 10-20 mph this afternoon with a few gusts up to 30 mph. Look for clear skies with warm afternoon temperatures, though the trough will knock highs down a few degrees compared to yesterday.
201 AM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024 High pressure will be in control much of the weekend.
424 AM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024 Dry weather will continue through tonight as high pressure across the region drifts to the east coast. Weakening low pressure will move into the Ohio Valley Sunday, bringing a chance of a showers and a few thunderstorms.
Along with the clouds and rainfall, a stationary fntl bndry was situated along the Highway 67/167 and I-30 corridor.
As we go through the afternoon and into this evening, again expect convection to develop across much of the High plains.
1023 AM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024 High pressure over the Great Lakes will settle off the east coast bringing and extended stretch of dry weather to the region with temperatures gradually warming through the weekend.
1009 AM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024 High pressure will move off the coast this evening as quiet and slightly cooler weather continues through the weekend. A cold front may move through the area by late in the work week. High-pressure ridging from Western New York to South Carolina will shift off the coast by 12 UTC Sunday. Temperatures will remain just below average for one more day, with highs ranging from the lower 80s at the coast to 82Â°-84Â° inland. Lows Sunday night will range from the middle 50s in interior sections of Southeast North Carolina to the lower to middle 60s along the coast and interior Northeast South Carolina. Clouds are on the rise, with high pressure shifting further offshore, and setting up some healthy return flow. The cooler airmass sticks around, with highs only in the lower 80s.
With plenty of moisture remaining along with sufficient daytime heating and corresponding atmospheric instability and reasonable shear values, expect another round of showers and thunderstorms to develop later this afternoon along and east of the leeside surface trof axis over the higher terrain to the west of the forecast area.
552 AM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024 - Weak instability associated with a slow-moving low pressure system is bringing some showers and thunderstorms (80-100% chance) through central Illinois this morning, lasting into late afternoon.
1001 AM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024 Canadian high pressure centered across the area will move offshore late today and tonight.
The rest of the day will now be mostly sunny under slightly high pressure and northwest flow. The wave will also have a lagging surface cold front moving west to east Sunday afternoon and evening. With around 35kts of shear and 1500-2300 J/kg of CAPE storms will likely first fire as scattered supercells before all the convection lines up on the cold front. After Sunday, the flow goes back southwest as another bigger trough forms in the Pacific Northwest.
542 AM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024 A ridge of high pressure at the surface and aloft will crest over the region today bringing another day of abundant sunshine, warm temperatures, low humidity and light wind.
The wave will also have a lagging surface cold front moving west to east Sunday afternoon and evening. With around 35kts of shear and 1500-2300 J/kg of CAPE storms will likely first fire as scattered supercells before all the convection lines up on the cold front. After Sunday, the flow goes back southwest as another bigger trough forms in the Pacific Northwest.
730 AM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024 Rain will return to the area late Saturday night into Sunday with crossing low pressure. - Increasing precipitation chances accompany a mid to late week low pressure system that will cause falling temperature.
1023 AM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024 Dry weather will continue through tonight as high pressure across the region drifts to the east coast. Weakening low pressure will move into the Ohio Valley Sunday, bringing a chance of a showers and a few thunderstorms. Following another cool start, sunshine and a slightly warmer air mass will allow afternoon temperatures to rise into the mid to upper 70s with a few spots reaching 80F in the Genesee Valley and Western Finger Lakes. With the clouds limiting radiational cooling it'll be warmer with lows ranging from the lower 50s to lower 60s.
626 AM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024 Dry weather will continue through tonight as high pressure across the region drifts to the east coast. Weakening low pressure will move into the Ohio Valley Sunday, bringing a chance of a showers and a few thunderstorms. Following another cool start, sunshine and a slightly warmer air mass will allow afternoon temperatures to rise into the mid to upper 70s with a few spots reaching 80F in the Genesee Valley and Western Finger Lakes. With the clouds limiting radiational cooling it'll be warmer with lows ranging from the lower 50s to lower 60s.
630 AM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024 (Today through Sunday) Deep South Texas will remain under the northern periphery of an upper level ridge through the period. Broad subsidence from the ridge, and continued southeasterly surface winds will continue to support hot temperatures through the weekend. High temperatures are expected to reach the upper 90s to just over 100 degrees this afternoon, and may be slightly warmer Sunday afternoon with more areas reaching just above 100 degrees. The enhanced pressure gradient along the Lower Texas Coast will continue to support stronger winds and moderate seas along the coast.
1012 AM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024 High pressure will build across the area through the day today before beginning to slide offshore Sunday. By Sunday, high pressure will begin to move further offshore with a weak area of low pressure moving in from the Ohio Valley.
712 AM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024 A ridge of high pressure at the surface and aloft will crest over the region today bringing another day of abundant sunshine, warm temperatures, low humidity and light wind.
A typical early June weather pattern, with high pressure over northern Mexico and the southwestern United States and the storm track well north along the Canadian border.
622 AM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024 High pressure will move off the coast this evening as quiet and slightly cooler weather continues through the weekend. A cold front may move through the area by late in the work week. High-pressure ridging from Western New York to South Carolina will shift off the coast by 12 UTC Sunday. Temperatures will remain just below average for one more day, with highs ranging from the lower 80s at the coast to 82Â°-84Â° inland. Lows Sunday night will range from the middle 50s in interior sections of Southeast North Carolina to the lower to middle 60s along the coast and interior Northeast South Carolina. Clouds are on the rise, with high pressure shifting further offshore, and setting up some healthy return flow. The cooler airmass sticks around, with highs only in the lower 80s.
632 AM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024 High pressure still remains in control today, but will begin to slide offshore by tonight.
1030 AM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024 Weak low pressure will track through the region overnight into Sunday.
509 AM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024 Dry high pressure over the area this morning will move off the coast this afternoon.
647 AM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024 Weak low pressure will track through the region overnight into Sunday.
559 AM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024 High pressure over the Great Lakes will settle off the east coast bringing and extended stretch of dry weather to the region with temperatures gradually warming through the weekend.
An increasingly hot and dry airmass will build in to southern Utah this weekend, while temperatures will be moderated to some degree by a series of weak cold fronts across the north.
632 AM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024 Dry high pressure centered over the region will keep temperatures slightly below normal, with dry weather persisting through today. High pressure shifts offshore Sunday with warming temperatures and increasing moisture.
622 AM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024 Canadian high pressure centered across the area will move offshore late today and tonight.
1020 AM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024 Showers will return to the area late tonight into Sunday with crossing low pressure. - Warmer temperatures in the upper 70s and lower 80s are expected this afternoon. - Increasing precipitation chances accompany a mid to late week low pressure system that will cause falling temperature.
123 PM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024 Forecast is on track this morning with troughing across the Mississippi Valley and high pressure across the East Coast. Breezy winds tonight for the east TN mountains, gusts up to 35 mph across the highest ridgetops. Due to the increased cloud cover and vicinity showers, the southern TN valley, Cumberland Plateau, and southwest NC will see the cooler high temps today, around 10 degrees below normal. The 850 mb winds increase to around 30kts as the pressure gradient tightens and the east TN mountains will see breezy winds with gusts up to 35 mph across the higher ridgetops.
High temperatures will range from the low 70s far north to the low 80s far southwest. Low temperatures will range from the lower 60s far east and northeast to the upper 60s southwest. High temperatures will range from near 80 in the higher elevations east and northeast to the upper 80s far west and southwest.
A tropical cyclone in the west Pacific last week has transitioned into the mid-latitudes and injected quite a lot of moisture into the jet stream, and an elongated jet stream across the Pacific Ocean is bringing it to our region. The terrain in that region will combine with the wind direction, extremely moist air, and an approaching trough to produce heavy rain. There is about a 20 percent chance for some mountain locations to pick up 2" or more of rain in about 30 hours, and the chances of picking up over an inch in that time is over 80 percent for most of the higher elevations of Clearwater and Idaho counties in central Idaho. Beyond the atmospheric river, a ridge builds over the region by mid-week with nearly 100 percent agreement by the ensembles.
Afternoon highs may struggle to surpass the lower/mid 70s, which is around 10F below normal for this time of the yr.
242 PM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024 A low pressure system in the Mid Mississippi Valley will track east to night and Sunday bringing showers and thunderstorms to the region.
149 PM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024 High pressure will move off the coast this evening as quiet and slightly cooler weather continues through the weekend. A cold front may move through the area by late in the work week. High-pressure ridging from Western New York to South Carolina will shift off the coast by 12 UTC Sunday. Temperatures will remain just below average for one more day, with highs ranging from the lower 80s at the coast to 82Â°-84Â° inland. Lows Sunday night will range from the middle 50s in interior sections of Southeast North Carolina to the lower to middle 60s along the coast and interior Northeast South Carolina. Clouds are on the rise, with high pressure shifting further offshore, and setting up some healthy return flow. The cooler airmass sticks around, with highs only in the lower 80s.
- Weather conditions will become warmer and continue to be unsettled during the week.
A weak trough axis across far western KS/eastern CO should allow for development shortly.
1020 AM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024 - Weak instability associated with a slow-moving low pressure system is bringing some showers and thunderstorms (80-100% chance) through central Illinois this morning, lasting into late afternoon.
The aforementioned trough will continue to slowly drift eastward throughout the day. After the trough exits the region tonight, main rainfree and humid conditions look to persist across the much of the area on Sunday.
In any case, a passing upper trough pattern coupled with a moisture laden air mass will keep scattered/perhaps numerous showers/tstms in the forecast for much of tonight with rain chances near 50-70%. Overnight temps look to be fairly seasonal for this time of the yr, with lows mainly in the lower/mid 60s.
Weak showers and thunderstorms are expected over the higher terrain and across the Front Range. The thermal ridge amplifies today underneath largely zonal flow, with temperatures climbing approximately 10F for the plains/urban corridor and mostly 5 degrees or less in the mountains. Sunday will see further warming, with downslope flow and lee troughing on the increase.
A few quick moving northern stream troughs look to clip the Silver State for the start of June, but any moisture looks skirt the edges of the Silver Stat. However attention turns mid week as high pressure looks to build over Nevada bringing the first taste of Summertime weather for many. Tonight and Sunday Weak upper trough passing to our north will push a weak wind shift line trough northern Nevada this evening.
Broad area of low pressure across the region will aid in the development of gusty south to southwest winds today and Sunday. A tightening pressure gradient associated with a trough of low pressure approaching the Pacific Northwest will keep breezy conditions around the area through Sunday.
At the surface, a cold front was shifting east of the area with scattered showers ahead of the front over eastern Missouri into the Ohio and Tennessee valleys. High pressure was moving into the area behind the front. Extensive cloud cover was over the area and was keeping temperatures cooler today. Readings werein the low to mid 70s with dew points in the low to mid 60s. Lows tonight should dip into the upper 50s in south central Missouri and the low to mid 60s over western Missouri and southeast Kansas.
A few virga showers have developed in southern Malheur county ahead of a weak upper trough. The upper trough brings a very weak cold front through this evening, allowing winds to stay out of the NW overnight, with gusts 20-25 mph. Sunday will be slightly cooler before a very moist Pacific system arrives Sunday evening.
High temperatures will be in the 70s across much of northern and western GA thanks to cloud cover, while temperatures are forecasted to reach the lower-80s to mid-80s across central and eastern GA, where more insolation is expected.
Surface analysis early this afternoon depicts a broad area of ~1012 mb low pressure centered over western IL. 12Z HREF only suggests about a ~30% probability or less for visibility to fall below 1 mile overnight, focusing higher chances of this west of the area where the center of the high will be located.
1255 PM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024 High pressure over the Great Lakes will settle off the east coast bringing and extended stretch of dry weather to the region with temperatures gradually warming through the weekend.
The dryline is well off to the west, and convection has developed over the higher terrain to our west. Otherwise, expect hot and mainly dry conditions for much of this week due to an upper level ridge building across the Southern Plains and a 850 MB thermal ridge of 28-30 deg C.
An outflow boundary from a nocturnal MCS that developed over the high plains of eastern New Mexico and the Texas South Plains and subsequently moved south has continued its slow progression across the area, and has largely "washed out" early this afternoon. After a comparatively cooler day today, the heat cranks back up on Sunday, with highs on target to top out in the middle 90s to lower 100s for most. Even the mountains will climb into the 90s, with Heat Advisory conditions likely to return for the higher terrain of Southwest Texas as well as the Big Bend Region.
1232 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024 (Today through Sunday) Deep South Texas will remain under the northern periphery of an upper level ridge through the period. Broad subsidence from the ridge, and continued southeasterly surface winds will continue to support hot temperatures through the weekend. High temperatures are expected to reach the upper 90s to just over 100 degrees this afternoon, and may be slightly warmer Sunday afternoon with more areas reaching just above 100 degrees. The enhanced pressure gradient along the Lower Texas Coast will continue to support stronger winds and moderate seas along the coast.
258 PM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024 Quiet and slightly cooler weather continues through the weekend. A cold front may move through the area by late in the work week. Highly amplified ridge axis now over the area while weak high pressure resides at the surface. Lows in the lower 60s with highs in the middle 80s. Return flow in full swing around offshore high pressure for the start of the week.
Sunday, a trough will enter the region, bringing another chance for showers and thunderstorms to the region in the afternoon, evening, and overnight hours.
We are seeing some breezier easterly today as high pressure in the Mid Atlantic states nudges a little farther south increasing our pressure gradient. This has helped to increase our easterly winds which has resulted in slightly cooler air compared to our work week. However, the high pressure is also giving us more subsidence which in turn will keep showers very limited across the area. As we go through our Sunday the high start to push into the Atlantic on the surface while a weak upper level trough looks to push over the area.
(Through Tonight) The main concern overnight is the low potential for a couple of opportunities of showers and thunderstorms - one this afternoon and early evening and another after midnight.
143 PM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024 Weak low pressure will track through the region overnight into Sunday.
- A slight risk of severe weather (level 2 on a scale of 5) will develop Sunday afternoon and evening as a cold front sweeps across the area.
352 PM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024 A weak front trailing low pressure tracking through the Great Lakes will move into the area on Sunday.
1109 AM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024 High pressure still remains in control today, but will begin to slide offshore by tonight.
Mostly dry conditions today, as high pressure moves offshore of the eastern US seaboard and into the western Atlantic. The pressure gradient as the ridge shifts offshore will lead to breezy to windy onshore winds today, with gusts of 20 to 25mph, especially along the coast.
1236 PM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024 Canadian high pressure centered across the area will move offshore late today and tonight.
1108 AM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024 Forecast is on track this morning with troughing across the Mississippi Valley and high pressure across the East Coast. Breezy winds tonight for the east TN mountains, gusts up to 35 mph across the highest ridgetops. Due to the increased cloud cover and vicinity showers, the southern TN valley, Cumberland Plateau, and southwest NC will see the cooler high temps today, around 10 degrees below normal. The 850 mb winds increase to around 30kts as the pressure gradient tightens and the east TN mountains will see breezy winds with gusts up to 35 mph across the higher ridgetops.
217 PM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024 *Splendid start to June with plenty of sunshine and low humidity *Becoming cloudy on Sunday with some showers into Sunday night *Trending warmer and more humid Mon-Tue; rain most likely Wed-Thu A very pleasant and comfortable start to the weekend/first day of June and meteorological Summer with plenty of sunshine, seasonably warm temperatures, and low humidity.
(Tonight through Sunday night) Key Messages: *Above normal high and low temperatures *Best chance for rain on Saturday An upper level ridge will continue to be the driving force for the weather of Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley. The subsidence from the ridge along with the onshore flow will support greater than normal temperatures with highs in the range of the upper 90s for the coastal regions and triple digits for the rest of the area. With low temperatures in the low 80s for tonight and tomorrow night. The presence of the ridge will continue to bring plenty of dry air and stability to the atmosphere that will hinder the development of showers and thunderstorms.
1107 AM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024 *Splendid start to June with plenty of sunshine and low humidity *Becoming cloudy on Sunday with some showers into Sunday night *Trending warmer and more humid Mon-Tue; rain most likely Wed-Thu A very pleasant and comfortable start to the weekend/first day of June and meteorological Summer with plenty of sunshine, seasonably warm temperatures, and low humidity. Latest 2m temp ensemble plumes are widely diverging, with most members cooler than the current forecast.
1243 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024 - Weak instability associated with a slow-moving low pressure system is bringing some showers and thunderstorms (80-100% chance) through central Illinois this morning, lasting into late afternoon.
Following convection this evening, conditions should fair calmer for the remainder of the night as low temperatures fall into the low 70's.
Weakening of upper level features, occlusion of the low and associated front and finally lack of overall instability, will limit overall QPF for the area.
West-southwest are just beginning to pick up over the higher terrain with gusts of 20-25 mph. For the weekend - a weak trough moving west to east across the region will bring an increase in southwesterly winds, reaching 10-20 mph this afternoon with a few gusts up to 30 mph. Look for clear skies with warm afternoon temperatures, though the trough will knock highs down a few degrees compared to yesterday.
- The warmer temperatures means runoff will be well underway with most major stem rivers showing rises over the next several days. The potential for notable wetting rain remains low as the lower levels of the atmosphere stay dry.
816 PM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024 Showers will return to the area late tonight into Sunday with crossing low pressure.
852 PM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024 Easterly flow will remain in place with high pressure ridging across the area at the surface. An upper trough passes over the area Sunday and will allow for some scattered showers and storms tomorrow afternoon with the highest chances south. Easterly flow will continue with high pressure in place to the east over the Atlantic.
At the surface, lee side trough will extend from far eastern Colorado north-northeast into South Dakota.
(Tonight) The latest analysis this evening indicates a N-S oriented frontal/convergence boundary was located to our west across Miss extending northward into the lower OH Valley.
606 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024 (Tonight through Sunday night) Key Messages: *Above normal high and low temperatures *Best chance for rain on Saturday An upper level ridge will continue to be the driving force for the weather of Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley. The subsidence from the ridge along with the onshore flow will support greater than normal temperatures with highs in the range of the upper 90s for the coastal regions and triple digits for the rest of the area. With low temperatures in the low 80s for tonight and tomorrow night. The presence of the ridge will continue to bring plenty of dry air and stability to the atmosphere that will hinder the development of showers and thunderstorms.
747 PM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024 A weak front trailing low pressure tracking through the Great Lakes will move into the area on Sunday.
As the ridge moves overhead, forcing will continue to weaken across the area.
742 PM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024 High pressure will move farther off the Carolina coast this coming week. Southerly winds will bring warmer and more humid air northward, resulting in spotty mainly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms beginning Sunday.
638 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024 (Through Tonight) The main concern overnight is the low potential for a couple of opportunities of showers and thunderstorms - one this afternoon and early evening and another after midnight.