Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
- Localized elevated fire weather threat continues across the higher elevations with drier conditions beginning this weekend. DialH (This evening through Thursday) Cooler temperatures continue today and tomorrow with highs running about 10 to 15 degrees below normal for this time of year. This is due to a deeper marine layer (around 2000 feet) thanks to persistent upper level troughing along the West Coast. High temperatures on Thursday will remain in the mid 70s to mid 80s across the interior with highs in the interior East Bay Hills and far interior Central Coast reaching the low 90s. Coastal temperatures will remain cooler with highs in the 60s. Diurnally breezy winds are expected across mountain gaps/passes, along ridgetops, and within valleys. Localized elevated fire weather concerns continue across the higher elevations where drier, warmer conditions persist.
The National Hurricane Center continues to monitor an area of low pressure (Tropical Invest AL93) across the northeast gulf.
Finally, a well-defined Tropical Upper Tropospheric Trough (TUTT) cell continues to spin just off the Florida East Coast, slowly migrating westward. Temperatures are generally in the lower 80s across the Island Chain, with dew points in the seasonably muggy mid to upper 70s.
Good news is there is no need for heat products through the remainder of the short term obviously because of the higher rain chances and cloud cover. Although, it's still going to be very humid and overnights will be on the warmer side.
Inland temperatures are forecast to be a few degrees cooler Thursday as the trough to the north slightly deepens. The low- level inversion has strengthened, and will remain strong to moderately strong this week.
1244 AM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025 - Scattered showers and storms possible this evening to overnight along the cold front. Currently, a cold front is draped along I-70 in eastern Kansas with the western extent positioned along Highway 56. On early Friday morning, the front will lift back north as a warm front into the area returning southerly flow at the surface. As our area becomes more influenced by the weak upper-level ridge on Friday into the weekend, thickness will continue to increase. As embedded weak ripples continue to ride the upper-level ridge, low chances of rain showers and storms will be possible through the weekend mainly in Central Kansas.
Meanwhile, a short ridge will keep the warm up going into the weekend but progressive flow will keep thunderstorm chances into the forecast.
206 AM EDT Thu Jul 17 2025 Upper level ridging returns for the remainder of the week and this weekend. Key Message(s): - Above normal temperatures with isolated showers/storms Ridging builds over the area today which will largely suppress convective development and allow temperatures a few degrees warmer than the past few days. Subsidence beneath the ridge favors a mainly dry forecast with just a few isolated showers or thunderstorms possible in the afternoon. The HREF shows the lowest convective coverage in the past few days adding confidence to the forecast. Afternoon dewpoints will likely drop to the low 70s or lower despite NBM forecast values of the mid to upper 70s.
230 AM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025 - Scattered showers and storms with cooler conditions today. Elevated showers and more widely scattered storms were situated north of the slow moving cold front early this morning. Meanwhile, the slow moving cold front is progged to become stationary in northern OK near the state line with plenty of residual low level moisture lingering. As we move into Friday, the warm front will return north allowing drier air to advect over the area. The subtropical ridge is progged to amplify and the H7 thermal ridge will overspread eastern KS through the period. A cold front continues to move slowly southward across south central and southeast Kansas early this morning.
A large, subtropical ridge covers much of the Southeastern US with a cut off low off the Baja Coast. The high will expand westward, which will shift the plume toward the AZ-NM border, decreasing but not eliminating storm chances.
Cooler and less humid on Thursday and Friday. The big change will be the cooler weather and much less humid conditions.
626 AM EDT Thu Jul 17 2025 Upper level ridging returns for the remainder of the week and this weekend. Key Message(s): - Above normal temperatures with isolated showers/storms Ridging builds over the area today which will largely suppress convective development and allow temperatures a few degrees warmer than the past few days. Subsidence beneath the ridge favors a mainly dry forecast with just a few isolated showers or thunderstorms possible in the afternoon. The HREF shows the lowest convective coverage in the past few days adding confidence to the forecast. Afternoon dewpoints will likely drop to the low 70s or lower despite NBM forecast values of the mid to upper 70s.
Western Washington is poised for a pattern shift, ushering in cooler temperatures along with night and morning clouds.
544 AM EDT Thu Jul 17 2025 (Today and tonight) Weak low pressure across the north-central Gulf coast will continue to move away from the area today. Overnight lows will remain muggy in the low to mid 70s, except upper 70s along the coast.
643 AM EDT Thu Jul 17 2025 Bermuda High Pressure will remain off the coast through this weekend.
635 AM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025 - Scattered showers and storms with cooler conditions today. Elevated showers and more widely scattered storms were situated north of the slow moving cold front early this morning. Meanwhile, the slow moving cold front is progged to become stationary in northern OK near the state line with plenty of residual low level moisture lingering. As we move into Friday, the warm front will return north allowing drier air to advect over the area. The subtropical ridge is progged to amplify and the H7 thermal ridge will overspread eastern KS through the period. Showers and thunderstorms with heavy rain continue to accompany a slow moving cold front.
- There is a Marginal Risk (1 out of 5) for severe storms Friday evening along a warm front that stretches from south central SD toward west central MN.
533 AM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025 - Cooler temperatures and mostly dry conditions today and Friday with temperatures in the low 70s today and mid to upper 70s for Friday.
534 AM EDT Thu Jul 17 2025 High pressure builds into Eastern NC through the weekend with dangerous heat and humidity. Offshore high pressure will remain anchored offshore with weak troughing over central NC.
616 AM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025 - Decreasing clouds after noon, dry, and cool conditions on today with highs in the low to mid 70s.
1056 AM EDT Thu Jul 17 2025 Upper level ridging returns for the remainder of the week and this weekend. Key Message(s): - Above normal temperatures with isolated showers/storms Ridging builds over the area today which will largely suppress convective development and allow temperatures a few degrees warmer than the past few days. Subsidence beneath the ridge favors a mainly dry forecast with just a few isolated showers or thunderstorms possible in the afternoon. The HREF shows the lowest convective coverage in the past few days adding confidence to the forecast. Afternoon dewpoints will likely drop to the low 70s or lower despite NBM forecast values of the mid to upper 70s.
544 AM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025 - Drying out and cooler today with highs in the mid 70s, but we'll warm back into the 80s and lower 90s Friday through the weekend.
But with the highest shear draped across the northern half of the forecast area and the highest CAPE in the southern half, we may not get the alignment needed for strong, sustained storms.
223 PM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025 Forecast discussion for routine afternoon forecast issuance - Cooler and less humid conditions expected through Friday. Cooler and much less humid conditions prevailed this afternoon as temperatures were only in the upper 60s to lower 70s.
1242 PM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025 - Drying out and cooler today with highs in the mid 70s, but we'll warm back into the 80s and lower 90s Friday through the weekend.
I have to imagine the thinking is outflows coming off storms to our north and sparking convection along and north of I-40 and this seems to be the most logical conclusion as the energy associated with this upper trough remain off to our north. This is due to an upper ridge exerting itself over the mid-south.
232 PM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025 - After a cooler day today, expect warmer and more humid weather for Friday. Over the next several days upper level ridging will gradually expand northward across the plains and Midwest. A surface front over the southern plains will shift northward along with the ridging.
Trapped moisture under the building subtropical ridge will continue to produce isolated to scattered thunderstorms through the short term. The strengthening high pressure will heat up temperatures into the weekend.
125 PM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025 - Scattered showers and storms with cooler conditions today. Elevated showers and more widely scattered storms were situated north of the slow moving cold front early this morning. Meanwhile, the slow moving cold front is progged to become stationary in northern OK near the state line with plenty of residual low level moisture lingering. As we move into Friday, the warm front will return north allowing drier air to advect over the area. The subtropical ridge is progged to amplify and the H7 thermal ridge will overspread eastern KS through the period.
Mid to upper level ridging over the western U. A strong H850 MB thermal ridge over the western U.
1210 PM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025 - Cooler temperatures and mostly dry conditions today and Friday with temperatures in the low 70s today and mid to upper 70s for Friday.
The passing upper level low will draw moisture out of our area pushing it into northern Arizona keeping PWATs between 0. High temperatures this afternoon will be around 95 to 100 degrees, 4 to 9 degrees warmer than yesterday. The chance for showers and thunderstorms (50 to 60 percent) is focused to areas south and east of Tucson mainly along the higher terrain of Cochise, Graham and Greenlee counties.
By the way, the latest information about this disturbance (AL93) as of 1 PM CDT, shows a disorganized system with low chances for tropical cyclone formation in 48 hours.
Will see a slight uptick in daytime temps tomorrow given a high pressure system across the Atlantic commencing to nudge into the eastern zones. Although lower 90s will be commonplace, low-mid 90s will be possible across the far eastern zones courtesy of the aforementioned UA ridge.
Cold frontal boundary is currently draped around the I-71 corridor, with majority of convection expected SE of this interstate. Complex of storms expected near/south of the OH River Friday morning as the cold front sinks southward. Daytime highs trend a couple degrees cooler in the lower to middle 80s. The quasi-stationary boundary will begin to shift back northward as a warm front Friday night.
Upper-level high pressure will continue to be the biggest influence for the weather over the region allowing for more subsidence to occur and thus limiting chances for rain. The high temperatures are expected to generally range from the mid 90s to the lower triple digits. The low temperatures for the period are mostly in the 70s, with a few places on the extreme southern portions of the CWA approaching 80. The National Hurricane Center continues to monitor an area of low pressure over the coast of Mississippi and currently has about 30% chance of development. However the current forecast keeps swell and rip current risk low along the Lower Texas coast. High pressure over the Lower Texas coast will keep rain chances to a minimum through the period.
This evening, expect the low clouds to dissipate as we lose the peak heating, and later tonight high clouds will drift in from the west. This will keep temperatures a bit warmer than the previous night, with lows in the 50s across the region. This will bring slightly warmer and more humid air across the region, in particular southwest Minnesota. The highest MLCAPE values will be south and west of the Minnesota River Valley, and SPC continues with a Marginal risk for severe storms.
Conditions will remain hot and dry inland, while a deepened and a relatively persistent marine layer keeps temperatures cooler along some portions of the immediate coast. Upper troughing to the north has continued to suppress inland temperatures from hotter values.
Latest surface analysis depicts a trof axis extending northward thru AB ahead of the wave, with a stationary/warm front from central MT southward toward the Bighorns. Pressure falls owing to a deepening trof upstream are supporting breezy southerly winds over much of the region, but cloud cover has kept warming at bay for the most part, with afternoon temperatures in the 60s and 70s--and even the 50s again over the Black Hills. Beyond tomorrow, predominantly zonal flow aloft is expected through the bulk of the forecast period, which will occasionally bring convectively induced potential vorticity anomalies across the area while promoting low-level thermal ridge expansion and allowing for gradual boundary layer moisture return.
The cold front that was progged to only reach the northern row of counties in our CWA was given an extra push through the region by an outflow boundary from some storms just north of the CWA this morning. The mid/upper-level subtropical high remains stagnant over the majority of the southeastern CONUS while the upper low rotating over Baja California gradually shifts northward. However, the storms are not expected to last long in our region with subsidence from the upper ridge and lack of daytime heating.
- Active pattern returns tomorrow as warmer more moist air moves north into the area. Expect quiet weather in the short term as high pressure is expected through most of the period. Afternoon highs to top out in the lower 80s. Upper level ridging builds into the area to start the period as series of ridge riding waves move through the flow. The front that is now south of us, retreats back north as a warm front as our typical summer dance with this front placement continues.
Currently, there is a stationary front along I-35 leaving a moist air mass with dewpoints in the lower 70s in south-central to southeast Kansas. As we approach Friday morning, the front will lift north as a warm front returning southerly flow and drier conditions to the area.
310 PM EDT Thu Jul 17 2025 - Cooler and less humid air filters in through Friday.
Off to the north, an area of low pressure moves out to the far NE, dragging a very weak frontal boundary toward the TN Valley. CAM guidance shows more activity over the mountains with higher chances (65-85%), especially over the ridgetops. Again, the higher chances are over the mountains (60-80%) and elsewhere 20-40%. Temperatures remain in the low 90s today but heat up more for Friday.
148 PM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025 - Cooler temperatures and mostly dry conditions today and Friday with temperatures in the lower 70s today and mid to upper 70s for Friday.
159 PM EDT Thu Jul 17 2025 A cold front will cross the area tonight.
- Temperatures gradually increase into the low to mid 90s through the weekend, with maximum heat index values up to 100-105 degrees. Otherwise, the precipitation and cloud cover have kept temperatures relatively cooler, with afternoon temperatures in the low to mid 70s so far where the heavier rainfall occurred (north of I-44) and in the low to mid 80s closer to the MO/AR border (as of 1 PM). Afternoon highs will climb into the upper 80s to low 90s, with heat indices reaching the low 100s in some locations. Kept this early morning potential in a PROB30 group for now due to the lower confidence in coverage.
(This evening through Friday night) Observational data (surface, radar, satellite) indicates that low pressure is now south of New Orleans. The solid area of rain and thunderstorms from earlier has pushed west of the Atchafalaya River, but scattered showers and thunderstorms have redeveloped around the low pressure.
Thankfully, this additional cloud cover should suppress afternoon highs by a few degrees, with highs "only" expected to reach the low- 90s. Overnight lows will also remain on the warm and muggy side, with lows only expected to drop into the low to mid-70s both tonight and tomorrow.
259 PM EDT Thu Jul 17 2025 - Slightly cooler than normal temperatures continue the rest of the week, with highs generally being in the 60s to lower 70s.
141 PM EDT Thu Jul 17 2025 - Slightly cooler than normal temperatures continue the rest of the week, with highs generally being in the 60s to lower 70s.
857 PM EDT Thu Jul 17 2025 Upper level ridging will be in control of our weather through the upcoming weekend bringing above normal daytime temperatures and high humidity. Despite the presence of ridging, diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms will be possible each day.
723 PM EDT Thu Jul 17 2025 - Slightly cooler than normal temperatures continue the rest of the week, with highs generally being in the 60s to lower 70s.
Off to the north, an area of low pressure moves out to the far NE, which has dragged a very weak frontal boundary into the mountains, which is aiding in slightly more lift for convective development this evening, while coverage has dropped off drastically east of the mountains. Again, the higher chances are over the mountains (60-80%) and elsewhere 20-40%. Temperatures remain in the low 90s today but heat up more for Friday.
A trough will be coming through the area this weekend.
Otherwise, high temperatures were 5 to 10 degrees above normal today, with readings topping out near 100 over much of the lower elevations. Temperatures are forecast to be as warm or just a hair warmer tomorrow in the Treasure Valley, and slightly cooler over most of the remaining area.
1100 PM EDT Thu Jul 17 2025 A cold front pushes offshore overnight.
747 PM EDT Thu Jul 17 2025 - Cooler and less humid air filters in through Friday.
906 PM EDT Thu Jul 17 2025 A cold front moves through the area tonight.
Temps are expected to fall into the mid 50s to low 60s in the north, but remain stuck in the low 70s across the Lower Susq Valley.
712 PM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025 (This evening through Friday night) Observational data (surface, radar, satellite) indicates that low pressure is now south of New Orleans. The solid area of rain and thunderstorms from earlier has pushed west of the Atchafalaya River, but scattered showers and thunderstorms have redeveloped around the low pressure.
Robust surface through mid level ridging stretches westward from the Atlantic to the eastern Gulf. Expect overnight lows in the lower to mid 80s with dew points remaining in the upper 70s. Atlantic ridging across Florida will strengthen overnight resulting in freshening breezes on Keys waters.
604 PM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025 Updated aviation portion for 00Z TAF issuance - Cooler and less humid conditions expected through Friday. Cooler and much less humid conditions prevailed this afternoon as temperatures were only in the upper 60s to lower 70s.
1022 PM EDT Thu Jul 17 2025 Partly cloudy, breezy and a little cooler tonight as a cold front moves through the region. Dry weather returns on Friday with cooler temperatures and lower humidity expected.
Mainly dry overnight and humid with lows in the low to mid 70s. I have to imagine the thinking is outflows coming off storms to our north and sparking convection along and north of I-40 and this seems to be the most logical conclusion as the energy associated with this upper trough remain off to our north. This is due to an upper ridge exerting itself over the mid-south.
617 PM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025 - After a cooler day today, expect warmer and more humid weather for Friday. Over the next several days upper level ridging will gradually expand northward across the plains and Midwest. A surface front over the southern plains will shift northward along with the ridging.
- Temperatures gradually increase into the low to mid 90s through the weekend, with maximum heat index values up to 100-105 degrees. Otherwise, the precipitation and cloud cover have kept temperatures relatively cooler, with afternoon temperatures in the low to mid 70s so far where the heavier rainfall occurred (north of I-44) and in the low to mid 80s closer to the MO/AR border (as of 1 PM). Afternoon highs will climb into the upper 80s to low 90s, with heat indices reaching the low 100s in some locations.
734 PM EDT Thu Jul 17 2025 An approaching cold front may bring a brief shower through this evening.
An area of low pressure over the lower Mississippi Valley will gradually meander into portions of the Mid South on Friday. The added cloud cover will keep temperatures a touch lower, with most locations remaining in the lower 90s.
Meanwhile, veered low level flow through the first part of the day will aid in bringing warmer air off the higher elevations to our west out into the Plains. This will lead to warmer temperatures by this afternoon, especially across the northern half of Oklahoma, where cloud cover and scattered precip kept temperatures somewhat suppressed on Thursday. Highs this afternoon along and north of I-40 will be some 10-15 degrees warmer than yesterday (95-100).
* More numerous showers/storms possible late Sat through late Sun as a warm front passes through. * Cold front passing late Sun/Sun night dries things out for a couple of days. Maxes will be about 5-10F cooler than Thurs, esp in the SE where they should only get to 80-81F for both T and Heat Index. The srn tier will have the highest PoPs Sat. We'll continue to see an elongated summertime upper ridge axis from the southwestern Atlantic across roughly the southern half of the CONUS, with an energetic northern stream near the international border with Canada.
- Temperatures gradually increase into the low to mid 90s through the weekend, with maximum heat index values up to 100-105 degrees. Upper level analysis and water vapor imagery show main jet axis along the northern 1/4 of the CONUS with a Bermuda high pressure system extending into the southeast U. and an area of low pressure just off the Baja peninsula. The front will begin to lift northward today as a warm front and the better concentration of convection will begin to shift north and east and the better concentration of convection will be in the eastern CWA this afternoon and tonight. Temperatures: Will start to see temperatures creep up again south of the front in the lower 90s and in the mid to upper 80s elsewhere. Lows will be warm tonight in the low to mid 70s.
Surface analysis has a weak high pressure system residing eastern Colorado that will keep winds lighter over the next few hours. It will help keep Friday's highs in the mid-90s, marginally cooler than the very warm stretch expected through the weekend.
Updated at 150 AM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025 - Temperatures continue to warm up today and through the weekend as upper-level ridging builds.
Below this feature, the 00z evening sounding at KEY sampled rising geopotential heights, suggesting strong low- and mid-level ridging is beginning to enfold for the Keys and adjacent coastal waters. Freshened east to southeasterly breezes, associated with the low- level ridge strengthening and building westward, have prevented most communities from cooling much overnight, with land-based surface observations reading in the lower to mid 80s, and dewpoints in the mid to upper 70s. Confidence in the forecast for today through the weekend is rather high, with the ridging underneath the TUTT cell as well as a drying moisture profile below 500 mb suggesting slight rain and thunder chances at best.
1135 PM EDT Thu Jul 17 2025 A cold front will cross the area overnight.
Temperatures in western Montana will range from the upper 80s to low 90s, while north-central Idaho will see highs in the low 100s in the lower elevations.
228 AM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025 Forecast discussion for routine morning forecast issuance - Cooler and less humid conditions expected today.
235 AM EDT Fri Jul 18 2025 Gorgeous weather is in store for today with cooler temperatures and low humidity.
Persistent upper level high pressure will continue to provide broad subsidence across Southern Texas.