Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Loss of diurnal heating will cause boundary layer cloud to thin out and scatter for a time this evening before secondary cold front in the low to midlevels will backdoor southward through Lake Huron.
618 PM CDT Mon Aug 19 2024 (Tonight) Partly sunny skies have persisted early this afternoon as northerly flow and high pressure continues to bring drier and cooler conditions to the Tennessee Valley. Expect lows to range from the lower 60s in the higher terrain of northeast AL and southern middle TN, to mid to upper 60s for areas along and west of I-65.
917 PM EDT Mon Aug 19 2024 Drier high pressure builds across our area tonight.
725 PM EDT Mon Aug 19 2024 A cold front will move southeast across central North Carolina through tonight.
Warmer and drier conditions are now in place across the forecast area today as dry southwesterly flow aloft prevails. The subtropical ridge of high pressure centered near the Texas Panhandle will continue to strengthen and shift westward through tomorrow and will bring increasing temperatures to the region. Highs today will top out upwards of 108-112 degrees across the lower deserts before temperatures further warm up for Tuesday when 500 mb heights peak around 595-597 dm. This will lead to areas of increasing Major HeatRisk through Tuesday and thus an Excessive Heat Warning is in effect through Tuesday evening for portions of south-central Arizona, including the Phoenix metro, while the warning is in effect for areas along the Lower Colorado River Valley and Imperial Valley only on Tuesday.
(Tonight) A cooler drier air-mass remains in place after the frontal passage this weekend. This can be seen by our dew-points currently in the low to mid 60s. Sandwiched between low pressure to our NE and high pressure to our NW, northerly flow will continue throughout the night reinforcing the cooler drier continental air mass. Calm winds are necessary for ideal radiational cooler. Current forecast has lows in the low to mid 60s with our TN counties having the best shot at dropping just below 60 should winds remain calm enough.
1016 PM EDT Mon Aug 19 2024 High pressure and a dry airmass will be in place across the region through the rest of the week.
917 PM EDT Mon Aug 19 2024 An upper trough will exit the region later tonight.
Evening GOES IR imagery depicts an area of scattered 3000-6000 cloud bases across southern WI, moving into northeast IL at mid-evening ahead of a reinforcing cold front which will move across the area tonight into Tuesday. Ratzer Through Tuesday Night: Mid-level blocking across much of the CONUS will keep the western Great Lakes in an overall NNW flow pattern aloft through the period. A reinforcing seasonably cool airmass associated with an upper- level low over southern Ontario will push a backdoor cold front across Wisconsin and into northern Illinois tonight into Tuesday morning.
545 PM CDT Mon Aug 19 2024 - Cooler on Tuesday with a chance of light rain showers. Warmer temperatures have developed across the area today thanks to widespread sunshine. H5 analysis shows an amplified ridge over central US/Canada with a branch of the jet taking a shortcut through the heart of the dominant flow.
Today and tonight: The closed low sitting off the coast continues to modulate temperatures and moisture.
A cold front will move across the region late tonight and early Tuesday. Cooler and generally dry weather will move in for the middle of the week.
* A stretch of cooler temperatures and fall-like weather will remain in place through the end of the week. Low pressure off the northeast coast is progged to drift northeast overnight as high pressure builds and drops southeast into the Great Lakes region from Canada. Quite a bit cooler Tuesday morning than it was Monday morning, with lows in the mid 40s in the northwest and lows in the upper 50s in the southeast.
724 PM EDT Mon Aug 19 2024 Drier high pressure builds across our area tonight.
638 PM CDT Mon Aug 19 2024 (Tonight through Tuesday night) The upper level ridge is still slated to sit over Texas the next few days, with the resulting subsidence and low level southwesterly winds off the Mexican Plateau pushing temperatures to near record or record highs. The only significant forecast issue in the short term is the need to upgrade the highlights for heat.
1027 PM EDT Mon Aug 19 2024 A cold front will move southeast across central North Carolina through tonight.
508 PM CDT Mon Aug 19 2024 - Cooler temperatures are likely today and tomorrow behind the recent cold front.
Current surface analysis shows low pressure over the eastern MT/WY border, with a frontal boundary stretching south through eastern Wyoming into Colorado. Upper ridge shifts a bit eastward through today, but generally models keep mild ridging over the northern plains, with southeasterly surface flow providing moisture into the region for much of this week, bringing near daily chances for showers and storms.
150 AM EDT Tue Aug 20 2024 A cold front will move southeast across central North Carolina through tonight.
A firm low level thermal ridge will develop across the area bringing some of the hottest temperatures we've see this year.
Quieter and warmer conditions are expected for the second half of the week. A slow-moving weak cold front moving across Central NY and NE PA will continue to bring showers and a weak storm or two, mainly east of I-81. The center low of a trough will push southward into the area, allowing for these lake- effect light rain showers to likely start up again tomorrow afternoon and last into Tuesday night. This will pull down colder Canadian air into the air, dropping Tuesday high temperatures to the low to mid 60s, and some higher terrain areas even in the high 50s. Additionally, we'll see tonight's and Tuesday's overnight temperatures fall into the high 40s to low 50s.
The upper air pattern will remain with northwest flow over central Indiana today and tonight as an upper low drops from western Quebec to upstate New York an a high amplitude ridge extends from Hudson Bay to eastern Colorado. This will provide broad subsidence and when combined with a mostly dry column and northeast winds around the high will provide dry and cool weather with well below normal temperatures. Meanwhile, Marion county, with the urban effect, along with southern sections may only see lows in the lower 50s.
Remaining precipitation will wane this evening after sunset, but cloud cover will be reinforced overnight in continued northwesterly gradient flow with building high pressure. 5 dam 500 mb height falls as an upper low settles into Upstate New York. As the cooler air really settles in, probabilities for lows <50F Tuesday night shoot up to 80-90+% outside of the urban areas; Wednesday morning will start off a chilly one. Similar story continues for Wednesday as the core of the upper low moves closer overhead. ------------------------------------------------------------------- Ensemble clusters exhibit some spread from the mean primarily with the timing of the upper low's departure by week's end.
1129 PM CDT Mon Aug 19 2024 - Cooler on Tuesday with a chance of light rain showers. Warmer temperatures have developed across the area today thanks to widespread sunshine. H5 analysis shows an amplified ridge over central US/Canada with a branch of the jet taking a shortcut through the heart of the dominant flow.
Afternoon high temps will generally be in the lower 90s, with some mid 90s possible inland. Afternoon high temps will again be in the low to mid 90s, and with dewpoints elevated solidly in the upper 70s, heat indices will reach 105-110 during the afternoon hours.
That is a favorable setup for enhancing a moisture push up the Gulf and the high res models do indeed show a reinforcing push of moisture into the lower deserts west of Tucson this morning. In the mid/upper levels, the high will be centered today across NM with an inverted trough moving west from Chihuahua into Sonora. Heading into Wednesday, the mid/upper level pattern transitions to a more southerly flow between the high off to our east and troughiness near the west coast.
An isolated storm may form on the Pine Ridge. This will be important as the rain-cooled air beneath and near the rain center could linger into Wednesday when a warm front will set up somewhere across SD. The models are in very good agreement lifting the Great Lakes upper low and associated high pressure slowly east into the ern U.
459 AM EDT Tue Aug 20 2024 High pressure along with cooler and drier air moving into the region will dominate the weather into the weekend.
Synoptic pattern remains mostly stagnant with upper ridging over the central US bracketed by upper troughs on both coasts. GOES PW sounder shows a relatively dry airmass over Iowa, with the higher moisture plume (> 1.
1140 PM CDT Mon Aug 19 2024 (This evening through Tuesday Night) HOT HOT HOT! Many locations across Southeast Texas are now in the upper 90s and some areas see the high temperatures peak at 100-101 deg F this afternoon. For Tuesday, high pressure will persist across Southeast Texas and with west-southwesterly winds, temperatures will be able to rise a degree or three higher than today.
1226 AM CDT Tue Aug 20 2024 (This evening through Wednesday) H500 ridging will remain in place to the SW of the state as troughing deepens across the eastern US. At the sfc, with the cold front to the SW of the area, ridging will build in from the northeast which will provide E/NE low level flow and much drier air.
Additional cold advection will occur after midnight as a secondary cold front backdoors southward through Lake Huron. Amplified upper level pattern over North America with the longwave trough axis along the East Coast with 500 MB low rotating through southern Quebec tonight and into New England by Wednesday. A gradual warmup can then be expected through the rest of the week as the upper level ridge builds northeastward and the center of the ridge moves into western Ohio Valley by Tuesday. The coolest of the air will advect over the warmer waters through tomorrow morning, with only a slight breakdown of the pressure gradient expected as high pressure builds in from the north. High pressure then builds in late Tuesday and holds through the middle of the week.
(Today through Wednesday Night) Northwest flow aloft will drive a large area of high pressure from the upper Midwest/Great Lakes to the Ohio Valley in the next couple of days. Clockwise flow around the high will usher in a mild east/northeast wind, and this will result in below average temperatures in the near term.
Strong upper-level ridging and an 850mb thermal ridge over the region will bring very hot and dry conditions to West Central Texas for the next few days.
1233 AM CDT Tue Aug 20 2024 - High pressure will keep dry conditions and near normal temperatures in place through midweek. High pressure was firmly in control across the Northland this afternoon, stretching from Hudson Bay to the Central Plains. Diurnal cumulus was affecting much of the region with a few radar returns west of the Brainerd Lakes region underneath some upper level vorticity and low level convergence in the wake of an upper low moving into the Canadian Maritimes.
These drier conditions will persist until later today when showers are forecast to return as a trough approaches from the west. This will result in cooler temperatures, with most valleys experiencing highs in the 70s.
The cooler temperatures can be expected across south Arkansas which is in closer proximity to the center of the high. Overnight low temperatures tonight are forecast to fall into the lower 60s across these areas while the remainder of the ArkLaTex can expect lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s. On Wednesday, upper-level ridge to maintain northerly flow aloft allowing for stable conditions and afternoon highs in the mid 80s to lower 90s areawide.
1153 PM CDT Mon Aug 19 2024 - Cooler temperatures are likely today and tomorrow behind the recent cold front.
930 PM PDT Mon Aug 19 2024 Hot weather will occur again inland Tuesday as high pressure aloft peaks in strength.
258 AM EDT Tue Aug 20 2024 A cold front moving across the region early this morning will produce a cooler and generally dry forecast for the middle of the week.
The models show neutral height changes for the bulk of this work week at H5 (staying in the 580s DM) as we remain sandwiched between a high amplitude trof to the east, and ridge to the west.
(Today through Wednesday) The center of the Subtropical Ridge remains over New Mexico in the short term. Values up to 116 are expected, with the highest on Wednesday as some moisture moves in from the east. Subsidence under the Ridge and a slightly drier than normal airmass should keep rain out of the forecast today.
Upper troughing continues to dig south through central Florida while a frontal boundary extends west-east across northern Florida.
1204 AM CDT Tue Aug 20 2024 (Tonight through Tuesday night) Key Messages: - Moderate to extreme risk of heat-related illnesses Tuesday - Heat Advisory has been issued for Tuesday afternoon A mid to upper level ridge will continue to remained parked over the region through the short term. At lower levels, the 850mb ridge axis will be centered over SE Texas this afternoon before shifting westward toward the mid Texas coast on Tuesday. With such a stacked ridge and 850mb temperatures at or above the climatological max for this time of the year, temperatures will continue to climb with ambient temperatures above 100 degrees expected for all but the immediate coast and barrier islands.
* A stretch of cooler temperatures and fall-like weather will remain in place through the end of the week. Low pressure off the northeast coast is progged to drift northeast overnight as high pressure builds and drops southeast into the Great Lakes region from Canada.
The weak trough that aided shower development over the weekend lifted north yesterday. The longwave trough located over the eastern United States that weakened the subtropical ridge will start to weaken over the next few days, and that in turn will allow the western extent of the North Atlantic ridge to push west into the Keys Coastal waters. Global models forecast the transition point between the East Coast trough and the North Atlantic High being the dominant synoptic feature on Wednesday, hence the collapse in surface breezes to light and variable. In the latter half of the week, the North Atlantic Ridge will shift westward as Hurricane Ernesto moves deeper into the North Atlantic.
This afternoon will be our warmest day through Wednesday with highs reaching the low to mid-80s, up to 5 degrees below average for late August. Similar temperatures are expected on Wednesday, albeit a degree or two cooler than Tuesday.
It will be a relatively calm and beautiful day with highs in the upper 70s to the northeast and in the low to mid 80s in the southwest.
1144 PM CDT Mon Aug 19 2024 (This evening through Tuesday night) Cirrus debris from an early morning MCS across Arkansas kept most of the CWFA slightly cooler today, which had some implications on the previously issued heat advisory.
The exception will be along the immediate coast and across the southeast big bend where peak heat indices in the low 100s are still expected this afternoon.
Cooler and drier weather expected today and tomorrow Discussion: Currently mostly clear skies outside early this morning with a few low level clouds passing through as we sit on the eastern edge of the strengthening ridge. Biggest weather of note today and tomorrow will be the cooler temperatures with guidance suggesting that most locations along and north of Interstate 40 likely topping out below 80 degrees today. Daytime highs on Wednesday are expected to be just a couple of degrees warmer than what we reach today.
1212 AM CDT Tue Aug 20 2024 (This evening through Tuesday night) High pressure will continue to dominate the Panhandles and should remain centered around the southwest Panhandles. Not much change on Tuesday as the ridge of high pressure will barely move, so we expect nearly similar temperatures, and again a minimal chance for precipitation to occur.
319 AM CDT Tue Aug 20 2024 - High pressure will keep the weather quiet through the mid week.
223 AM MDT Tue Aug 20 2024 We are looking for yet another round of showers/thunderstorms to develop over the higher terrain and track northeast into the plains today. Wednesday will see more short wave energy in the SW flow break down the upper ridge.
121 AM EDT Tue Aug 20 2024 - Cooler into Wednesday - Gradually warming after Wednesday No changes to the fcst but will drop the Beach Hazard Statement/Small Craft Advisory north of Grand Haven as buoys at Muskegon and Ludington have dropped to 2 ft.
105 AM EDT Tue Aug 20 2024 Drier high pressure builds across our area tonight.
High temperatures for today will rise into the lower to mid 90s in the afternoon and then drop down into the lower 70s for inland areas and in the mid to upper 70s along the coast.
Current forecast has less than 15 percent chance of precipitation - Excessive heat returns this weekend with highs around 100 degrees The pattern above western Kansas throughout the forecast period will be depicted as a large upper level area of high pressure centered south of the CWA with upper level troughing across the eastern and western United States. Closer to the surface, winds will remain easterly throughout the day, then shift to the southeast tonight as lee troughing develops across eastern Colorado.
A ridge of high pressure will bring a continuation of rain-free weather to the Lower Mississippi Valley for the next seven days.
"Cooler" and drier air will infiltrate the Lower Mississippi Valley, with precipitable water dropping to ~1. Highs look to remain in the upper 80s across northern MS, while highs in the low 90s are expected elsewhere.
231 AM EDT Tue Aug 20 2024 High pressure brings cooler and drier weather to our area through the next several days.
325 AM CDT Tue Aug 20 2024 - Cooler today with light rain showers and a few rumbles of thunder through the morning, with increasing sun for the afternoon.
Lows tonight will be in the 40s and 50s with some 30s in mountain valleys and highs Wednesday slightly cooler in the 70s mountains and 80s valleys.
Northwest flow aloft and high pressure at the surface will keep dry and cooler conditions in place through the first half of this week. Upper level ridging builds in from the west for the latter half of the week and into the weekend. Over the weekend, temperatures look to rise into the lower to mid 90's.
The short wave is moving over the ridge today with satellite and radar imagery showing the cloud cover and precipitation spilling over from Nebraska into Iowa and Kansas this morning. Northerly winds have brought in some drier and cooler air which will bring the below normal and relatively drier conditions for early part of the week. For today, expect that increasing sky cover to limit the high temperatures as well with result in roughly 10F degrees below normal.
The upper high meanwhile will retreat over eastern NM this afternoon, yet local thicknesses and 850-700 mb temps undergo little change.
5 dam 500 mb height falls as an upper low settles into Upstate New York. As cold air aloft settles in, cloud cover will persist a bit longer driving down temps a degree or two for the highs. ------------------------------------------------------------------- Heading into tonight, as the cooler air really settles in, probabilities for lows <50F Tuesday night shoot up to 80-90+% outside of the urban areas; Wednesday morning will start off a chilly one. A similar story continues for Wednesday as the core of the upper low moves closer overhead. ------------------------------------------------------------------- Ensemble clusters exhibit some spread from the mean primarily with the timing of the upper low's departure by week's end.
A high-amplitude synoptic flow pattern is now in place with northwesterly mean flow aloft and northeasterly flow in the lower troposphere. Visible satellite shows upstream drying of the lower troposphere evident in tapering cumulus field with northward extent. Will lean toward warmer statistical/MOS for temperatures tomorrow given the time of year and pattern, but this will only make a degree or two difference as guidance is fairly tightly clustered around mid- to upper-70s for maximum temperatures tomorrow.
The upper ridge amplifying and drier air moving in at the low levels should keep storms to the west of the area. Tomorrow, the overall pattern remains roughly similar with the upper ridge axis over the area (albeit shifted a bit east) and low pressure over Eastern Colorado. However, the weak instability, forcing, and presence of the upper ridge should keep the severe threat marginal at best.
331 AM EDT Tue Aug 20 2024 (Today through Wednesday) Old cold front is currently across far south GA/north Florida panhandle. High pressure centered across southern Canada will build southward through the period and remain in place across much of north and central GA through the period.
335 AM EDT Tue Aug 20 2024 High pressure and a dry but cool airmass will remain in place across the Ohio Valley through Wednesday. Temperatures will remain well below normal with afternoon highs only in the low to mid 70s.
With a front set up over east central Colorado and high pressure north and east, there is a southeasterly flow over the area, with gusts to 20 mph at times. Going into Tuesday, upper ridge in place as well as southerly flow at the surface. For Wed-Wed night, guidance shifts the upper ridge to our southeast, placing SW flow aloft for the 24-hour period.
Expect very warm temperatures again today, with isolated to scattered showers/thunderstorms, mainly over the higher terrain.
This heat ridge/dome, which is +1 to +3 STDEVs above normal, will result in high temperatures climbing into the upper 90s to lower 100s this afternoon. the northward orientation of the sub-tropical heat dome/ridge), dewpoints/humidity levels will not be as strong as initially anticipated. Dry weather conditions should prevail through Wednesday due to strong subsidence from the aforementioned mid-level heat dome/ridge overhead.
(Now through Wednesday) Northwesterly flow aloft will prevail through the near term period as our region lies in between a building upper ridge over the Southern Plains and an upper trough over the eastern US. At the surface, a light northerly flow will be in place trough Wednesday as an expansive high pressure builds in from the Great Lakes region. Highs today and Wednesday will rise into the low to mid 90s, and with the low dewpoints, apparent temperatures will likely remain near the actual temperatures. This will allow for temperatures to drop into the mid to upper 60s along and north of I-10, and the low 70s along the coast for tonight and Wednesday night.
Moisture transport from both the Gulf and monsoonal moisture from the Pacific, including mid-level convergence, is shifting slowly eastward with the upper ridge axis.
707 AM EDT Tue Aug 20 2024 A cold front moving across the region early this morning will produce a cooler and generally dry forecast for the middle of the week.
621 AM CDT Tue Aug 20 2024 (Today through Wednesday) The center of the Subtropical Ridge remains over New Mexico in the short term. Values up to 116 are expected, with the highest on Wednesday as some moisture moves in from the east. Subsidence under the Ridge and a slightly drier than normal airmass should keep rain out of the forecast today.
640 AM EDT Tue Aug 20 2024 High pressure and a dry but cool airmass will remain in place across the Ohio Valley through Wednesday. Temperatures will remain well below normal with afternoon highs only in the low to mid 70s.
950 AM EDT Tue Aug 20 2024 A cold front will slowly exit the Downeast coast today while low pressure moves along the front.