Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
An upper level ridge is bringing more atmospheric stability and drier air is lingering in low and mid levels over the area. Most cities east of the Cascades will be in the teens to low 20s tonight, and west side valleys will be in the low to mid-30s. Refreezing of snow, slush, and accumulated water is possible which may result in slippery surfaces and hazardous driving conditions.
A closed upper level low sitting up near Hudson Bay is advecting arctic air into CONUS. Since recovery on the low temperatures and wind chills are minimal tomorrow over northeastern Minnesota, the Wind Chill Advisory will continue throughout the day and into Monday night.
316 PM PST Sun Jan 14 2024 Quiet weather to finish the weekend and begin the work week as high pressure builds overhead. The increase insolation has led to a marked warm up today with 24 hour trends showing 3 to 10 degrees warmer this afternoon. After an active weather period the rest of the short term will be rather quiet weather wise with dry and seasonal conditions as high pressure moves overhead.
631 PM EST Sun Jan 14 2024 (Rest of today through Monday) Models and satellite imagery place a warm frontal boundary right across SoFlo, slowly migrating northward. Southerly winds are also expected in the wake of the FROPA, bringing warmer air and afternoon temps in the upper 70s to around 80.
408 PM PST Sun Jan 14 2024 Quiet weather to finish the weekend and begin the work week as high pressure builds overhead. The increase insolation has led to a marked warm up today with 24 hour trends showing 3 to 10 degrees warmer this afternoon. After an active weather period the rest of the short term will be rather quiet weather wise with dry and seasonal conditions as high pressure moves overhead.
247 PM PST Sun Jan 14 2024 Quiet weather to finish the weekend and begin the work week as high pressure builds overhead. The increase insolation has led to a marked warm up today with 24 hour trends showing 3 to 10 degrees warmer this afternoon. After an active weather period the rest of the short term will be rather quiet weather wise with dry and seasonal conditions as high pressure moves overhead.
Then expect partial clearing in spots with the potential for patchy freezing fog in the valleys. Northwest flow continues on Monday with another freezing fog potential during the overnight.
522 PM CST Sun Jan 14 2024 (This afternoon through Monday night) It's a pretty cold airmass when there are sunny skies and temperatures still are unable to get above freezing with no snow on the ground. Another day of sun may moderate temperatures a bit more tomorrow as long as the clouds dissipate or move east as expected so the high forecast is a little higher than today. Tomorrow night an upper trough moving into the Great Plains pushes a reinforcing surge of cold air into the area bringing our coldest temperatures.
939 PM EST Sun Jan 14 2024 Arctic high pressure will extend into the area into mid week resulting in very cold conditions.
811 PM EST Sun Jan 14 2024 A tight moisture gradient remains in place with clear skies north of I-4 and plenty of mid/high level clouds for areas to the south, but cloud cover will generally increase area-wide overnight as a frontal boundary across the Florida Straits pulls northward as a warm front.
The increase insolation has led to a marked warm up today with 24 hour trends showing 3 to 10 degrees warmer this afternoon. After an active weather period the rest of the short term will be rather quiet weather wise with dry and seasonal conditions as high pressure moves overhead.
649 PM EST Sun Jan 14 2024 Arctic high pressure will extend into the area into mid week resulting in very cold conditions.
(00Z TAFS) A complicated TAF forecast tonight into Monday, as a warm front lifts northward through the local area through the period.
854 PM EST Sun Jan 14 2024 A tight moisture gradient remains in place with clear skies north of I-4 but there is plenty of cloud cover for areas to the south, though cloud cover will generally increase area-wide overnight as a frontal boundary across the Florida Straits pulls northward as a warm front.
An upper level jet sandwiched between deep ridging in the Caribbean and troughing in eastern Canada is streaming over the east coast of CONUS.
1247 AM EST Mon Jan 15 2024 Arctic high pressure will extend into the area into mid week resulting in very cold conditions.
Northwest flow over Arizona will give way to ridging this week as the longwave trough spanning the CONUS will gradually shift east.
In addition, there's likely to be snow across KS ahead of a SE-ward advancing wave in the cyclonic flow and along the H7 cold front.
A ridge continues to build over the West Coast, allowing a warming trend through much of the week.
1110 PM PST Sun Jan 14 2024 Quiet weather to finish the weekend and begin the work week as high pressure builds overhead.
23 27 in 1930 Another upper wave will drop south and southeast across the High Plains into the central and southern Plains tonight.
Quiet weather to begin the work week as high pressure builds overhead. Otherwise look for high level clouds to stick around with filtered sunshine boosting high temperatures into the lower 60s across the lower elevations.
A warm front will lift north over the Florida peninsula today with an increasing chance of showers and possibly a thunderstorm across west central and southwest Florida. with the highest pops across the central Florida peninsula. Overnight, relatively warm humid airmass will be in place across much of the Florida peninsula as the warm frontal boundary will have lifted to north central Florida.
Additionally, the arrival of the cold front may allow for a few flurries to be squeezed out of the column as the DGZ briefly saturates. Unfortunately, the modest nature of these winds should serve to limit warming, with all but the SW TX Panhandle at an 80 percent or greater chance to remain below freezing.
650 AM EST Mon Jan 15 2024 (12Z TAFS) A warm front lifts north through the day producing some low CIGs, light rain and mist at all terminals. A warm front will lift north over the Florida peninsula today with an increasing chance of showers and possibly a thunderstorm across west central and southwest Florida. with the highest pops across the central Florida peninsula. Overnight, relatively warm humid airmass will be in place across much of the Florida peninsula as the warm frontal boundary will have lifted to north central Florida. The next cold front will push across west central and southwest Florida Tuesday with widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms.
Despite mostly sunny skies today the arctic airmass will remain entrenched across the region keeping temperatures cold through the day for most of the forecast area except for western areas where there remains quite a bit of uncertainty in regards to the high temperature. A reinforcing back door cold front will drop into the forecast area this evening bringing an increase in northeasterly winds.
Weak ridging offers a break from recent winter weather with dry conditions and a mix of sun and clouds.
A warm front continues to lift north through the day. (12Z TAFS) A warm front lifts north through the day producing some low CIGs, light rain and mist at all terminals. A cold front moves through the area on Tuesday producing widespread showers and isolated storms. Winds and seas will build behind this cold front Tuesday and Tuesday night with SCEC conditions likely.
Warmer temps are likely this upcoming weekend. Vertically-stacked low pressure centered over Hudson Bay continues to advect Arctic air into the central CONUS. Lake effect snow occurring along the WI South Shore is very likely to lead to higher snow amounts, especially in the higher terrain of the Bayfield Peninsula. Confidence is high (>70% chance) for at least 3" of snow this evening into Tuesday evening in the higher elevations of Bayfield County north and east of County Highway C.
(Today and tonight) The cold arctic airmass remains in place this morning as temperatures are in the low to mid teens across west central Texas. This, combined with the snow on the ground, could cause temperatures to struggle to warm up much beyond the low to mid 20s today. Areas along the I-10 corridor could briefly get above freezing this afternoon if a southeastward wind component allows some slightly warmer air to nose into the area.
Weak high pressure ridge will build in over the area today and Tuesday.
Continued cold: Highs in the single digits above zero to the low teens followed by lows around zero tonight will continue to combine with winds to lead to wind chills in the single digits to teens below zero.
High pressure will pass over the West Coast today, promoting drier and quiet weather conditions. 25 inches along the California Coast by Tuesday afternoon as a cold front approaches.
911 AM EST Mon Jan 15 2024 Arctic high pressure will extend into the area into mid week resulting in very cold conditions. Quite a bit of cloud cover across the southern part f the region, mainly in the high and mid levels. Large mean trof to continue over the eastern CONUS. Lows tonight to range from the single digits northwest to the lower teens southeast. Highs to range from the near 10 northwest to the lower 20s southeast.
High cloud cover was beginning to increase in eastern Kansas with overall modest winds speeds with weak high pressure nearby.
351 AM PST Mon Jan 15 2024 Quiet weather to begin the work week as high pressure builds overhead. Otherwise look for high level clouds to stick around with filtered sunshine boosting high temperatures into the lower 60s across the lower elevations.
230 AM PST Mon Jan 15 2024 Areas of freezing fog and low stratus may impact many valley locations early this morning and again Tuesday morning.
As we head into today and Tuesday, a ridge of high pressure will be moving overhead.
528 AM CST Mon Jan 15 2024 (Today and tonight) The cold arctic airmass remains in place this morning as temperatures are in the low to mid teens across west central Texas. This, combined with the snow on the ground, could cause temperatures to struggle to warm up much beyond the low to mid 20s today. Areas along the I-10 corridor could briefly get above freezing this afternoon if a southeastward wind component allows some slightly warmer air to nose into the area.
Radar and surface observations continue to indicate an easterly shift in the higher reflectivities and likely any additional accumulations.
1248 PM EST Mon Jan 15 2024 Arctic high pressure will extend into the area into mid week resulting in very cold conditions. Large mean trof to continue over the eastern CONUS. Lows tonight to range from the single digits northwest to the lower teens southeast. Highs to range from the near 10 northwest to the lower 20s southeast.
A secondary upper trough axis is expected to swing through the southern plains just north of the area. High clouds are expected to clear out by tomorrow afternoon leaving plenty of sunshine to allow temperatures to warm into the upper 20s to mid 30s, with most places hovering right around the freezing mark.
343 PM EST Mon Jan 15 2024 Arctic high pressure extending into the area will keep very cold conditions in place into mid week.
934 AM PST Mon Jan 15 2024 Quiet weather to begin the work week as high pressure builds overhead. Surface observations reveal low stratus and scattered dense fog in the North Bay, Salinas, and Hollister valleys, although high clouds on satellite are making it difficult to gauge the spatial extent of the low clouds. Otherwise look for high level clouds to stick around with filtered sunshine boosting high temperatures into the lower 60s across the lower elevations.
For the remainder of the afternoon and into tonight, the main wx focus will continue to be on the arctic air over the region, and the additional freezing wind chills from the persistent northerly flow. A broad area of high pressure coming southeast off the northern/north central Rockies is working into the central Plains.
1106 AM CST Mon Jan 15 2024 (Today and tonight) The cold arctic airmass remains in place this morning as temperatures are in the low to mid teens across west central Texas. This, combined with the snow on the ground, could cause temperatures to struggle to warm up much beyond the low to mid 20s today. Areas along the I-10 corridor could briefly get above freezing this afternoon if a southeastward wind component allows some slightly warmer air to nose into the area.
(This evening through Tuesday) Temperatures are warming above freezing across the far southwestern Texas Panhandle and western South Plains today. Similar to yesterday, a weak lee trough setup in New Mexico is giving way to warm air advection due to west southwest winds across eastern New Mexico. Much of the area remains below freezing today with mostly calm winds. Another cold front will dive through the area this evening with breezy northeasterly winds to follow. Due to the breezier winds occurring late this evening, the highest threat for the coldest wind chills will take place prior to the overnight hours.
The low clouds should prevent fog from forming, but patchy fog cannot be ruled out in the Grants Pass area and Illinois Valley. The low clouds are likely to persist through the morning hours, then breaking up in the afternoon with VFR ceilings.
The cold front that passed through a couple of days ago is now a quasi-stationary boundary that is beginning to lift northward.
Quiet weather to begin the work week as high pressure builds overhead. Surface observations reveal low stratus and scattered dense fog in the North Bay, Salinas, and Hollister valleys, although high clouds on satellite are making it difficult to gauge the spatial extent of the low clouds. Otherwise look for high level clouds to stick around with filtered sunshine boosting high temperatures into the lower 60s across the lower elevations.
932 AM PST Mon Jan 15 2024 Quiet weather to begin the work week as high pressure builds overhead. Surface observations reveal low stratus and scattered dense fog in the North Bay, Salinas, and Hollister valleys, although high clouds on satellite are making it difficult to gauge the spatial extent of the low clouds. Otherwise look for high level clouds to stick around with filtered sunshine boosting high temperatures into the lower 60s across the lower elevations.
A dense cloud layer remains over the Lake Okeechobee vicinity which coincides with the warm front, which is currently analyzed from Sarasota to Vero Beach. Today's weather setup will be complicated and messy as the aforementioned warm front very slowly drifts northward. Onshore flow veers southerly this afternoon as a warm front advances north, reaching the local waters adjacent to Cape Canaveral. A warm front is currently analyzed from KSRQ to KVRB with a layer of dense clouds right along the boundary.
Trailing the showers and just north of the approaching warm front lifting up the FL peninsula, patchy fog and lowering stratus is expected to develop into the evening with widespread IFR across NE FL between 22z-02z with further deterioration to LIFR ceilings through 06-09z with fairly high NBH guidance probabilities of 25-50% for NE FL terminals tonight through at least Tuesday 18z. SSI will be on the outer fringe of the higher confidence LIFR to IFR ceilings through this event with MVFR conditions expected this evening and potential IFR at times overnight.
A warm front over southern Florida will lift northward through the day bringing scattered showers and an isolated storm to the area. A cold front will move through the area on Tuesday producing widespread showers and isolated storms.
Southeast winds and ample sunshine has allowed temperatures to rise into the lower 80s.
935 AM MST Mon Jan 15 2024 Primary impacts this morning are related to patchy fog/freezing fog and the very cold temperatures. Patchy fog and freezing fog is also a possibility again in valley locations, with a 30-40% chance of seeing visibilities below 1 mile in the Treasure and western Magic Valleys.
The center of the Arctic high pressure system was still in the Rockies. The high pressure system will track out of the Rockies and into the plains tonight and we should see some clearing take place from west to east late tonight into early Tuesday morning.
Warmer and more normal temperatures are expected by the weekend. Low pressure remained over southern Hudson Bay early this afternoon with high pressure across the Northern High Plains. The 12z HREF PMM continues to key in on this area with a small area of 6 to 8 inches along and to the west of the terrain ridge on the peninsula. Temperatures will slowly warm over the remainder of the week before the warming pace accelerates for the weekend as high pressure moves to the east bringing southerly winds and warmer temperatures.
Upper level ridging moving over the western United States is allowing for calm conditions and clear skies to continue over northern California and southern Oregon. East side areas will be in the teens to low 20s, while west side valleys will be near freezing.
See the Bridger-Teton Avalanche Center for more details.
The rest of this evening and tonight will be relatively quiet weather-wise, but it will be very cold as we remain in northerly flow aloft behind the cold front that is now to our south. Farther south into the lower Snake Plain and Magic Valley, or basically from Blackfoot to the south, wind chills will fall to about 15 degrees F below zero and debated including the Pocatello/Fort Hall/Blackfoot areas in the warning, but only about 20-30 percent of latest HREF members support wind chill values reaching 20 degrees below zero.
520 PM CST Mon Jan 15 2024 (This evening through Tuesday) Temperatures are warming above freezing across the far southwestern Texas Panhandle and western South Plains today. Similar to yesterday, a weak lee trough setup in New Mexico is giving way to warm air advection due to west southwest winds across eastern New Mexico. Much of the area remains below freezing today with mostly calm winds. Another cold front will dive through the area this evening with breezy northeasterly winds to follow. Due to the breezier winds occurring late this evening, the highest threat for the coldest wind chills will take place prior to the overnight hours.
Overnight, the cloud cover will clear enough to allow some radiational cooling, bringing temperature minimums into the single digits along and north of the I-30 corridor, and the low-to-mid teens elsewhere (well below normal for this time of the year and hazardous enough for an areawide Hard Freeze Warning).
Light snow/sleet is expected, with maybe some pockets of freezing rain toward the Louisiana border. Temperatures will remain well below freezing today, so conditions will not improve much if at all. Even so, afternoon temperatures will stay below freezing after readings in the single digits/teens to start the day. Arctic high pressure will eventually settle over Arkansas from the Plains Tuesday afternoon/night.
Then, scattered showers will remain possible overnight, especially from around Orlando northward, which remain closest to the warm front. Overnight lows in the low to mid-60s, with some upper 50s possible well north of I-4. Will see fog clear as winds increase ahead of a cold front late Tuesday morning, but lower CIGs will persist through the daytime hours.
Roadways that have any lingering snow/slush present will be at risk for refreezing into ice overnight due to the exceptionally cold temperatures in place. A Hard Freeze Warning highlighting the forecast low temperatures of 10F or less remains in place roughly along and north of the I-20 corridor, with Central Texas expected to bottom out in the lower teens. Expect mostly clear skies tomorrow aside from some passing cirrus, while afternoon highs climb into the upper 20s and perhaps close to freezing across our far southern zones.
The first Arctic cold spell of the winter will persist through the upcoming weekend as temperatures remain below freezing.
(Today through Wednesday afternoon) Early this morning, the cold front has finally pushed all the way to the Rio Grande and into Mexico, with temperatures falling areawide. The higher terrain of Southeast New Mexico and Southwest Texas have largely escaped the cold temperatures the past few days, but by daybreak, temperatures will be in the single digits and teens areawide, with a few 20s through the Rio Grande Valley. On Wednesday, flow aloft will transition from northwesterly to more zonal, and at the surface, a lee trough to the north of the region will result in a shift to southwesterly downslope flow. Thus, highs Wednesday will rebound nicely, reaching the 60s along and west of the Pecos River, with middle to upper 50s across the Permian Basin, and cooler temperatures around 50 degrees down toward the Stockton and Edwards Plateaus.
The excepting being some areas just downwind of the terrain, where locally breezy northeast winds may keep temperatures a couple of degrees warmer. Temperatures remain warmer than normal for much of the area again on Tuesday.
Tonight and Tuesday The latest RAP analysis and satellite/radar imagery show a beefy 1044mb centered over Montana with a ridge axis extending southeast into the mid-Mississippi Valley. But considering the obs upstream, decided to add the flurries mention, and time the chance with the arrival of the higher humidity fields in the mid levels.
High pressure overhead will give way to a weak disturbance moving across the northern Great Basin on Wednesday, bringing increasing winds and precipitation chances to the eastern Sierra and portions of central Nevada.
We are only going to include the Lower Snake Plain as an extension to the WIND CHILL WARNING. The rest of this evening and tonight will be relatively quiet weather-wise, but it will be very cold as we remain in northerly flow aloft behind the cold front that is now to our south. Farther south into the lower Snake Plain and Magic Valley, or basically from Blackfoot to the south, wind chills will fall to about 15 degrees F below zero and debated including the Pocatello/Fort Hall/Blackfoot areas in the warning, but only about 20-30 percent of latest HREF members support wind chill values reaching 20 degrees below zero.
Although temperatures will again start off close to record values, abundant sunshine, warmer afternoon temperatures, and a light wind will bring some relief from the recent arctic intrusion. By early evening the high is expected to be centered over southeastern Oklahoma/northern Texas.
- Light snow and cold continue this week The deep upper trough responsible for delivering several shots of arctic air will remain in place for a few more days, before it begins to move east over the weekend.
For the area farther north in the Big Country, the lows could occur early tonight with temperatures then remaining steady or climbing a few degrees overnight, with south winds increasing to 8-12 mph.
239 AM CST Tue Jan 16 2024 - Trending warmer today and Wednesday.
A warm front will move into the region on Tuesday evening, bringing another round of snow for all areas initially.
Wind Chill Warnings and Advisories are in place across the entire CWA through Tuesday morning, transitioning to a Wind Chill Advisory Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday morning as winds shift to become southwesterly and bring slightly warmer temperatures to the region.
Low level troughing persists near the lakeshore tonight and the moisture will extend through the -20 deg C level so we will continua to see lake effect snow showers. However the DGZ lowers and the lower end of it will reach the ground level. As for the marine zones, we considered a heavy freezing spray warning. However, based off of GLERL's water temperature projections the risk for heavy freezing spray is likely limited. We will feature moderate freezing spray in the forecast as a result. - Light snow and cold continue this week The deep upper trough responsible for delivering several shots of arctic air will remain in place for a few more days, before it begins to move east over the weekend.