Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
On Tue, temperatures will be much cooler, down 5-10 deg F. Messick High pressure begins to break down today with a return to a more active weather pattern over the days ahead. As we progress through the day, moisture will begin to increase out ahead of an upper level trough that will swing through the region.
This will give way to what will be a largely pleasant day with 50s/lower 60s dew points and high pressure dominating sensible weather conditions.
An upper level ridge will maintain warm and dry conditions today. A ridge will rebuild over the area midweek for a return to dry and warmer conditions.
High pressure over the central Rockies and a weak low moving across Northern California will keep temperatures today and Monday similar with highs near to slightly above average. The trough to the north may help to slightly hinder storm chances today, but as it weakens by Monday, high pressure over the Intermountain West becomes better positioned near the Four Corners region to allow for better moist southeasterly flow across SoCal. Model guidance is in agreement of the high drifting and strengthening closer to Arizona by the middle of the week.
Cooler temperatures will build today along with increased marine influence lifting just a bit further inland. A deep, almost cutoff low pressure system and associated upper level trough is very evident on satellite early this morning as it steadily approaches shore. Slight lifting has already been felt ahead of the low with coastal marine clouds spreading up to about 2500 kft low elevation fog being replaced with very light drizzle. That said, moisture increases will be generally very minor with nothing but dry air visible on satellite for the low to pull inland.
608 AM CDT Sun Sep 1 2024 (Today and tonight) A high pressure ridge will be centered across the northern portions of the Four Corners Region. This will leave western Central Texas with weak flow aloft as we are largely not under the influence of this ridge.
617 AM CDT Sun Sep 1 2024 (Today through Monday) A trough is in place across the Southeast, with a weak frontal boundary to our north. Activity will likely start along the trough in the southern sections, and to our north ahead of the initial front. As the evening continues, the second cold front will overtake the washed out front and begin to approach Alabama by sunrise Monday.
632 AM CDT Sun Sep 1 2024 - As cold front continues to slowly push southeast across the region, shower and thunderstorm chances will linger this morning across southern parts of southeast Missouri and western Kentucky.
1010 AM EDT Sun Sep 1 2024 Showers and thunderstorms are expected once again today ahead of an approaching cold front, which will push through later this afternoon into tonight. In the wake of the frontal boundary, high pressure builds in for much of the week. A trough approaches the area later in the week, potentially bringing unsettled weather back to the region. The long-awaited cold front will approach the region this afternoon before pushing through this evening into the overnight hours. Any precipitation associated with the frontal boundary will likely stay to our south as high pressure brings dry conditions areawide. High pressure located over the Great Lakes region will build in from the northwest throughout the day, leading to decreased cloud cover.
(Now through Monday night) The mid/upper trough over the eastern CONUS will dig southward through tonight and then lift northeastward and weaken on Monday along the Eastern Seaboard from New England to the Mid-Atlantic States. In the wake of the departing mid/upper trough, a large mid/upper ridge between the Rocky Mountains and Mississippi River will build into the Southeast States from the west. At the surface, a large high pressure area across the Northern Great Plains will shift eastward across the Great Lakes region while a weak easterly wave moves across the Gulf and Deep South. Highs today and Monday will reach the low to mid 90s, with heat indices as high as 103 degrees for some locations.
(Today and tonight) A high pressure ridge will be centered across the northern portions of the Four Corners Region. This will leave western Central Texas with weak flow aloft as we are largely not under the influence of this ridge.
A closed low will approach the California coast today, which will tighten pressure gradients across the southwestern Great Basin. Additionally, forcing associated with this trough will be enough to return chances of showers and thunderstorms to Mohave County and eastern Lincoln County on Monday.
639 AM CDT Sun Sep 1 2024 -A cold front moves through today, bringing a cooler and drier air mass into the region.
424 AM PDT Sun Sep 1 2024 The Labor Day weekend will feature much warmer than average temperatures with most of the Inland Northwest exceeding 90 degrees Sunday and Monday.
High pressure remains in a favorable position for today to allow for showers and thunderstorms to develop. Activity will develop along the higher terrain first and then start to push off to the southwest-west through the afternoon, following the outflows. Heading into the new week, the high gets pinched and becomes elongated across the southwestern states as a result of a strong trough moving into the Pacific Northwest.
(Now through Monday) The mid/upper trough over the eastern CONUS will dig southward through tonight and then lift northeastward and weaken on Monday along the Eastern Seaboard from New England to the Mid-Atlantic States. In the wake of the departing mid/upper trough, a large mid/upper ridge between the Rocky Mountains and Mississippi River will build into the Southeast States from the west. At the surface, a large high pressure area across the Northern Great Plains will shift eastward across the Great Lakes region while a weak easterly wave moves across the Gulf and Deep South. Highs today and Monday will reach the low to mid 90s, with heat indices as high as 103 degrees for some locations.
High pressure will bring hotter temperatures by mid week. High pressure will reorient into a blocking ridge across southern CA and Arizona Monday, and likely through the rest of the week.
558 AM CDT Sun Sep 1 2024 (Today through Monday night) High pressure remains over the southern plains for the next couple of days. That being said if the high weakens enough then some moisture may push back into the southern TX panhandle.
307 AM PDT Sun Sep 1 2024 The Labor Day weekend will feature much warmer than average temperatures with most of the Inland Northwest exceeding 90 degrees Sunday and Monday.
The ridge over the area will weaken today and Labor Day as the closed low/trough presently near 40N/130W moves into far northwest California and southern Oregon. Appreciable cooling will develop in the Central Valley today as onshore flow picks up, and will spread further inland on Labor Day as synoptic cooling associated with the trough takes hold.
549 AM CDT Sun Sep 1 2024 - A cold front will pass through the region today, ushering in seasonably cool and less humid air. Satellite imagery shows that those areas are on the northern periphery of the cloud shield associated with the slow moving cold front now positioned near the Ohio River Valley. The main weather highlight for today is the passage of a cold front. High temps will generally be in the upper 70s/low 80s, although they could climb into the upper 80s south of I-70 where the cold front is slower to arrive.
529 AM CDT Sun Sep 1 2024 A cold front will move through the Midsouth today accompanied by a final round of showers and thunderstorms.
As an upper trough currently extending across Hudson Bay and the Great Lakes builds southward, it will begin to force a weak front southward into the Mid South later today. Meanwhile, the pressure trough and associated low along the western Gulf Coast which has been maintaining disturbed weather across much of our area will shift farther westward.
306 AM MDT Sun Sep 1 2024 - Dry weather continues today, with only an isolated shower/storm possible over the higher terrain. An upper level high will remain over the area today and tonight. Temperatures are expected to remain above seasonal averages, with the warmest temperatures forecast to reach the low 90s, mainly along and east of I-25, and along and north of I-76. ECMWF and GFS ensembles continue to indicate PWAT anomalies will remain in the 50-70% range of normal across the plains, with an uptick to above normal ranges (120-130%) across the high country.
618 AM CDT Sun Sep 1 2024 (Today through Monday afternoon) The weak cold front has finally moved through the area with most locations showing light north to northeasterly winds. Models are showing a weak 500 mb trough lingering over the area that combined with afternoon heating will help cause another round of showers and thunderstorms to develop this afternoon with the highest rain chances south of I-10 and decreasing farther north.
An approaching trough will bring slightly cooler temperatures to the region on Labor Day, with less than a 30 percent chance of maximum temperatures above 100 degrees.
637 AM CDT Sun Sep 1 2024 -A cold front moves through today, bringing a cooler and drier air mass into the region.
A well defined upper cyclone is evident on latest moisture-channel imagery as it churns in the far eastern Pacific. Amplified southwest flow aloft will begin to overspread the region today as the cyclone approaches, increasing southwest to west winds this afternoon and advecting drier air into the Sierra and western Nevada.
Cloud cover will help keep high temperatures in the mid to upper 90s this afternoon, and in the low to mid 90s Monday afternoon.
736 AM EDT Sun Sep 1 2024 (Today through Monday) A weakening mid-level low will be drifting westward towards the Florida Peninsula through the day today while an amplifying mid level trough dives down from the Mid-Atlantic states towards the southeast.
Cooler today, as onshore flow starts. But, much cooler Monday with stronger onshore flow and clouds, along with a chance of a few showers.
625 AM CDT Sun Sep 1 2024 -A cold front moves through today, bringing a cooler and drier air mass into the region.
An upper low near the LA/TX coast will continue to provide moisture across the Lower Mississippi Valley region. The highest potential for mostly showers looks to be in central LA/SW MS. As an upper trough currently extending across Hudson Bay and the Great Lakes builds southward, it will begin to force a weak front southward into the Mid South later today. Meanwhile, the pressure trough and associated low along the western Gulf Coast which has been maintaining disturbed weather across much of our area will shift farther westward.
321 PM EDT Sun Sep 1 2024 * Cooler temperatures, compared to the recent heat wave, expected this week. A reinforcing shot of still cooler conditions possible this weekend.
1244 PM EDT Sun Sep 1 2024 * Cooler temperatures and low humidity can be expected today through the middle of the week. Cloud deck then erodes this evening as high pressure builds in from the west, which will support even less cloud cover and slight veering to north flow by Monday morning. Troughing moving across Ontario into Quebec today will drive a cold front through Michigan during the morning hours. Another notable change with the passing of the front will be decreasing humidity as dewpoints fall into the lower/mid 50s arrive by late afternoon.
(Rest of Today) Over the course of the day, the general synoptic weather pattern across the TN Valley will become increasingly influenced by an amplifying longwave trough extending from eastern Canada southward into the Great Lakes and northeastern CONUS.
1013 AM CDT Sun Sep 1 2024 - A cold front will pass through the region today, ushering in seasonably cool and less humid air. The cold front is making its way across the forecast area this morning. Satellite imagery shows that those areas are on the northern periphery of the cloud shield associated with the slow moving cold front now positioned near the Ohio River Valley. The main weather highlight for today is the passage of a cold front. High temps will generally be in the upper 70s/low 80s, although they could climb into the upper 80s south of I-70 where the cold front is slower to arrive.
High pressure will bring hotter temperatures by mid week. 10" of precipitable water on the 12Z TWC RAOB), ample instability for convection should develop under the relatively cooler temperatures associated with the circulation aloft. High pressure will reorient into a blocking ridge across southern CA and Arizona Monday, and likely through the rest of the week.
215 PM EDT Sun Sep 1 2024 A cold front moves across the area late day Sunday through Sunday night.
1248 PM CDT Sun Sep 1 2024 (Today and tonight) A high pressure ridge will be centered across the northern portions of the Four Corners Region. This will leave western Central Texas with weak flow aloft as we are largely not under the influence of this ridge.
Brusda 01/18Z TAF Period VFR conditions will prevail across all terminals with few to scattered high-level clouds due to an upper-level ridge over the region. Upper level ridging will bring warm temperatures and low RH values today and tomorrow with poor overnight RH recovery, with most areas across Southwestern Montana only seeing RH recover to 30-40% overnight tonight. As the ridge breaks down on Monday thanks to an upper level trough pushing in from the west, winds will increase across Southwestern Montana, particularly in the area covered by Fire Weather Zone 118, where wind gusts to 30 mph combined with the low RH, hot temperatures, and even a few showers and thunderstorms has prompted the continuation of the Fire Weather Watch.
A weak upper level low currently across northern Mexico will approach far West Texas on Monday.
422 PM EDT Sun Sep 1 2024 A cold front moves across the area later tonight.
1150 AM CDT Sun Sep 1 2024 - As cold front continues to slowly push southeast across the region, shower and thunderstorm chances will linger this morning across southern parts of southeast Missouri and western Kentucky.
A trough off the west coast is still projected to move into the region on Monday, which will lead to increased moisture in the mid-levels of the atmosphere. The combination of this trough and dry conditions in the lower levels will heighten the likelihood of thunderstorms producing strong gusty outflow winds.
Earlier mid level clouds have eroded and convection has started to develop along the pre frontal trough.
A cold front will sweep through the region tonight marking a return of dry and less humid conditions to start the week.
358 PM EDT Sun Sep 1 2024 A cold front will cross the region through the evening. High pressure then moves over the Great Lakes and dominates the weather with dry weather through mid week. There are a few showers located along the cold front so will keep the lower POP's in the forecast. The cold front will move south of the region through the evening with dry air spreading across the area. High pressure remains in control of the area through Monday night. Cooler on Monday with highs ranging from the mid 60's to mid 70's. Although it will be warmer near the lakeshore with 50's to near 60 anticipated.
1237 PM CDT Sun Sep 1 2024 -A cold front moves through today, bringing a cooler and drier air mass into the region.
304 PM EDT Sun Sep 1 2024 * Cooler temperatures and low humidity can be expected today through the middle of the week. A surface cold front has now cleared southeast Michigan. The amplified northern stream trough and associated mid level height falls now driving the cold front south of the region will advance across eastern Canada on Monday. Broad mid level ridging will expand across the Great Lakes region in its wake. A corresponding strong low level anticyclone will build into Lower Mi on Monday, then gradually depart to the East Coast by Midweek.
1129 AM CDT Sun Sep 1 2024 A weak cold front is drifting south into the region this morning as a weak mid level trough moves through. A cold front will move through the Midsouth today accompanied by a final round of showers and thunderstorms.
Low pressure/troffiness offshore should sink further to the southwest tonight & Monday. Some of the hires guidance has shown some consistency depicting the potential for some banded/training rain and storms moving across the northern periphery of the low offshore that could impact some areas from roughly High Island/Galveston to around Sargent.
Discussion: A cold front was situated across Kentucky and back into western Tennessee this afternoon. Expect largely diurnal trends with the convection, such that rain chances will drop off overnight despite the cold front not pushing through until roughly daybreak Monday morning. Forecast soundings show that low level moisture remains high due to the cold front passage and subsequent air mass change not occurring until after daybreak tomorrow.
Monday, isolated/scattered dry thunderstorms expected in the afternoon with the highest chances of scattered dry thunderstorms towards eastern Elko County and White Pine County becoming more isolated further west. High temperatures expected in the 90s with overnight lows seeing some cooler temperatures move in from the northwest as a cold front moves in making Humboldt County in the 40s, 50s everywhere else. Winds expected to elevate from the cold front moving in, increasing southerly winds to 15-25 mph with gusts reaching as high as 30 mph.
A subtropical upper-level trough continues to advance towards the southern plains region.
241 PM EDT Sun Sep 1 2024 A few rain showers this afternoon and evening ahead of the cold front, then dry conditions returns for Labor Day through the end of the work week.
Satellite imagery shows center of upper low off northern California coast, shifting east toward the coastal states this afternoon.
Brusda 01/06Z TAF Period VFR conditions will prevail across all terminals with few to scattered high-level clouds due to an upper-level ridge over North- central, Central, and Southwestern Montana. Upper level ridging will bring warm temperatures and low RH values today and tomorrow with poor overnight RH recovery, with most areas across Southwestern Montana only seeing RH recover to 30-40% overnight tonight. As the ridge breaks down on Monday thanks to an upper level trough pushing in from the west, winds will increase across Southwestern Montana, particularly in the area covered by Fire Weather Zone 118, where wind gusts to 30 mph combined with the low RH, hot temperatures, and even a few showers and thunderstorms has prompted the continuation of the Fire Weather Watch.
The higher coverage of showers and storms are being encouraged by deepening moisture, a weak disturbance aloft, and associated weak surface reflection. High pressure remains situated over the western Atlc with associated ridge axis north of the area providing for a fairly deep S/SE flow.
With the cloud cover and front, max temperatures will be several degrees cooler than they were yesterday. If you'd like an even more refreshing experience wake up early tomorrow morning to see lows in the low to mid 60s.
203 PM CDT Sun Sep 1 2024 - A cold front located just south of I-70 may bring a stray shower across far eastern IL as the front moves through this afternoon (10% chance). A cold front is still traveling across the CWA this morning. Highs behind the front in the low 80s and ahead of the front in the upper 80s, with low humidity.
958 AM MDT Sun Sep 1 2024 - Dry weather continues today, with only an isolated shower/storm possible over the higher terrain. An upper level high will remain over the area today and tonight. Temperatures are expected to remain above seasonal averages, with the warmest temperatures forecast to reach the low 90s, mainly along and east of I-25, and along and north of I-76. ECMWF and GFS ensembles continue to indicate PWAT anomalies will remain in the 50-70% range of normal across the plains, with an uptick to above normal ranges (120-130%) across the high country.
1143 AM CDT Sun Sep 1 2024 (Today through Monday night) High pressure remains over the southern plains for the next couple of days. That being said if the high weakens enough then some moisture may push back into the southern TX panhandle.
Cooler air will settle into the region and will continue through midweek.
1138 AM CDT Sun Sep 1 2024 (Rest of Today) Over the course of the day, the general synoptic weather pattern across the TN Valley will become increasingly influenced by an amplifying longwave trough extending from eastern Canada southward into the Great Lakes and northeastern CONUS.
In addition, the early morning water vapor imagery indicates a weak upper trough axis sliding SSE into extreme Nrn OK/Ozarks and into the OH Valley, which will drift S into NE OK/Nrn AR this afternoon. This trough will help to reinforce a weak sfc front S into SE OK/Wrn AR later this afternoon, and will focus an increase in scattered convection across extreme SE OK/Nrn sections of SW AR.
130 PM EDT Sun Sep 1 2024 A cold front will cross the region this afternoon into the evening. High pressure then moves over the Great Lakes and dominates the weather with dry weather through mid week. The cold front will move south of the region through the evening with dry air spreading across the area. High pressure remain in control of the area through Monday. Cooler on Monday with highs ranging from the mid 60's to mid 70's. Canadian high pressure centered over the region will lead to a period of quiet and dry weather through the short term.
DS/12 (Now through Monday) The mid/upper trough over the eastern CONUS will dig southward through tonight and then lift northeastward along the Eastern Seaboard on Monday while weakening slightly over our area. In the wake of the departing mid/upper trough, weak mid/upper level ridging will build into the Southeast States on Monday. At the surface, weak high pressure will continue to ridge into the forecast area from the east. At night, the higher moisture and instability over the marine area will allow for the continuation of overnight convection offshore over the Gulf waters. Lows tonight should range from around 69 degrees for a few locations up along the Highway 84 corridor, but generally in the lower 70s for most of the remainder of interior southeast MS, southwest AL and the FL panhandle (north of I-10).
A flattening 500mb ridge will move east over the Northern Plains starting tomorrow. There is pretty strong warm advection, so Labor Day will be warmer than today.
149 PM CDT Sun Sep 1 2024 - A refreshing cooler airmass with lower humidity is in store for Labor Day. The early morning hours will start off a bit breezy with a few wind gusts between 20-25 mph as a secondary cold front moves across the region.
For areas along the Highway 2 corridor, from East Glacier Park to Harlem, they should be far enough north that little to no impacts from thunderstorms are expected on Monday.
High pressure will bring hotter temperatures by mid week. Moisture return will depend on the timing of the ridge axis eastward shift, which may not occur until at least late this coming weekend.
230 PM CDT Sun Sep 1 2024 Forecast discussion for routine afternoon forecast issuance - Dry weather and near to slightly below average temperatures will prevail through mid-week due to Canadian high pressure.
This afternoon, we find ourselves amongst building high pressure and northwest flow, leading to some cumulus fields and lingering gusty winds.
Relatively drier air has already started moving into northeast Oklahoma this afternoon with surface dewpoints in the lower 60s near the Kansas/Oklahoma border. As a result, overnight low temperatures are expected to be cooler across much of northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. (Monday through Sunday) Slightly below normal temperatures and drier conditions are on tap for Labor Day as high pressure builds into the region.
328 PM CDT Sun Sep 1 2024 - Dry and cool conditions expected the next few days with Canadian high pressure in control.
There is a 60-70% chance that the highs will be less than 75 degrees north of Dodge City.