Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
The low pressure system that brought rain and snow to the Northern Rockies over the last couple days is continuing east this morning. All other locales in the Northern Rockies should expect decreasing clouds and increasing temperatures as high pressure begins to build. As high pressure builds over the Northern Rockies, an area of low pressure will expand over the Great Basin through the weekend. This high-over-low configuration is a blocking pattern that will keep the Northern Rockies under high pressure through the weekend.
It will move northward just slightly today as a wave of low pressure rolls along it.
305 AM EDT Thu May 9 2024 - Much cooler today with increasing rain showers toward the southern Michigan border.
The cold front will stall for a bit this afternoon across the far southwest South Plains and into the Permian Basin. Temperatures are expected to be about 5 to 10 degrees cooler today in the mid 70s to lower 80s due to weak CAA and upslope flow. Meanwhile, the pattern aloft will begin to change today as the upper low that was spinning over the Northern Plains becomes absorbed into the base of a positively tilted trough across the Great Lakes with a cutoff low retrograding westward toward the Great Basin region. A weak and shallow secondary cold front will push south through the forecast area this afternoon, which will push the stationary (original) front southward towards the Texas/Mexico state line.
Temperatures on Friday through the weekend will warm to the highest values of the season so far, with high temperatures reaching the 80s into the lower 90s for much of the region.
Issued by National Weather Service Memphis TN 1142 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024 (Rest of today through Friday) Earlier warm front now stationary and centered w-e just north of I- 40. Look for clearing skies Thursday night with cooler temps.
For today, models are showing an upper level trough closing off with a center of circulation in southeast Utah. For Friday and Friday night, the closed upper low is forecast to meander west and south, taking a position over southern Nevada and northwest Arizona.
A cold front across central Oklahoma is expected to promote explosive convective development this afternoon. Expect noticeably drier and cooler conditions for Friday.
An upper level low centered over Sioux Falls, SD has led to a cold front sweeping across the central plains and cold air advection extending into central Oklahoma. Highs will be mainly in the lower to mid 70s. Friday with west to northwest flow along and winds in the boundary layer still out of the north we should continue with a cooler air mass and some mid to high level clouds to decrease the diurnal heating a bit.
The severe threat will continue until a cold front, which is currently situated west of the Mississippi River, finally pushes this volatile air mass east of us. Look for cooler temperatures to accompany the drier air Thursday night and Friday.
A cold front is forecast to track south across the area today. Behind the front, gusty north winds and much cooler temperatures are expected. Highs across the northern Big Country will be in the 70s, with highs across the southern Big Country in the low to mid 80s. Farther south, highs will generally be in the low to mid 90s, although a few locations could top out in the upper 90s. Showers and thunderstorms are possible this afternoon, east of the dryline and south of the cold front.
1216 AM CDT Thu May 9 2024 - Mostly dry for the remainder of the week with seasonable temps in the lower to mid 70s, warming into the upper 70s to lower 80s this weekend.
A cold front will promote cooler conditions Friday through the weekend. This low-topped convection poses a bit of a hydro concern early this morning as it festers within light flow between 5,000-15,000ft AGL, resulting in relatively slow storm motion to the north. A cold front will gradually clear out the area late tonight, but until then hi-res guidance suggests isolated activity sprouting during the late afternoon/early evening followed by a segmented line of convection drifting southward for the first part of the overnight hours.
408 AM EDT Thu May 9 2024 Several cool and unsettled days are in store as a warm front remains south of most of our forecast area and moist onshore wind flow continues.
422 AM EDT Thu May 9 2024 Low pressure will track across the area this afternoon and evening. High pressure will briefly build in for Friday.
1207 AM CDT Thu May 9 2024 (This evening through Thursday) The cold front continues its progress eastward early this afternoon, with a moist and very unstable airmass in place ahead of the boundary.
Any landspout/funnel potential this afternoon looks to be best over southeast SD, under the upper low center. Starting off Friday, split flow continues as the northern stream remains in a positive PNA pattern with the southern stream's closed low over the southwestern US.
Lows will be in the low/mid 50s. An amplified pattern develops over the CONUS for the end of the week and into the weekend as a deep trough develops across the eastern third of the US and a large expansive ridge over the western US.
126 AM EDT Thu May 9 2024 Low pressure will lift a warm front north across the region late tonight into Thursday. Low pressure is expected to track eastward along a stationary boundary that looks like it will remain near or just south of the I-70 corridor. Showers will be slow to end from west to east this evening into the overnight as we wait for an upper level trough to pass overhead. Cloud cover persists into tonight but cooler air does spread into the region in the wake of the low pressure passing to our south. We start the short term period with an upper-level trough overhead. Isolated to scattered rain showers may linger across the area on Friday especially the eastern part of the forecast area before that trough departs to the east.
A cold front will push through north Mississippi today. High pressure will build into the region on Friday with dry and cooler weather for the weekend.
1109 PM EDT Wed May 8 2024 - Dry conditions expected to continue through Thursday morning as a dry cold front stalls over southern Pennsylvania. - A wave of low pressure will move across southern PA Thursday evening.
Today and tonight: Elongated trough from the central Rockies to the Great Lakes will provide forcing/lift, and with sufficient moisture will continue to spark showers and a few thunderstorms. Extensive low clouds will keep temperatures much cooler with highs in the 60 to 65 range. Gradually the showers end tonight as the trough shifts to our southeast. This carves out a deep trough in the Great Lakes region.
144 AM EDT Thu May 9 2024 Cooler weather is expected today following the passage of a cold front. Cold front is dropping south from Central NY into the Twin Tiers, and will continue across Northeast PA during the remainder of the evening. Thursday is looking much cooler with northerly flow advecting in cooler 850 mb temperatures. Thursday night, an inverted trough sets up with light rain overspreading the region. General rain showers can be expected for Friday, with high temperatures in the low-50s.
Expect a mostly sunny sky today with dry airmass over the area due to high pressure in NW Ontario.
1236 AM CDT Thu May 9 2024 - Drier and cooler conditions for late week and weekend. A cold front was also located across eastern Kansas into eastern Oklahoma. The region, in the warm sector, has seen temperatures increase to into the lower to middle 80s with Td's in the upper 60s to around 70. A cold front will move through the area tonight which will shift winds to the northwest. This will also bring into the region drier air and a cooler airmass. Overnight lows will fall into the upper 50s as the cooler air filters into the region with clearing skies. With mostly clear skies but a cooler airmass, afternoon highs will still climb into the middle 70's.
353 AM EDT Thu May 9 2024 Low pressure will exit into the Maritimes today. Low pressure will track to our south Friday while high pressure builds to our north.
1152 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024 - Showers and isolated thunderstorms will be possible tonight through Thursday as a low pressure area and a weak surface front push through the area.
336 AM EDT Thu May 9 2024 Cooler weather is expected today following the passage of a cold front. 335 AM Update: Following the passage of a cold front, a northerly flow will bring considerably cooler weather today along with mostly cloudy skies, with perhaps a few breaks of sun. Model guidance continues the slower onset of rain showers later today with an approaching trough, with any rain showers likely holding off at least until the late afternoon and most likely until this evening. General rain showers can be expected for Friday, with high temperatures in the low-50s.
400 AM CDT Thu May 9 2024 - Slightly warmer temperatures with isolated afternoon and evening showers expected today.
1220 AM CDT Thu May 9 2024 (The rest of this afternoon and tonight) Thunderstorms continue to develop early this afternoon across northeast Oklahoma in the vicinity of a cold front that extends from near Nowata to near Oilton and back into south-central Oklahoma. The storms are expected to come to an end later this evening as the cold front exits.
with a cold front dropping SE through NWRN sections of the state. Much drier and slightly cooler air will be seen for Fri as a result. Lows by Fri morning will be in the low 50s to low 60s.
Second, the southern extent of the activity is aligned generally along an old boundary that was draped across the area from previous convection, thus potentially amplifying the low-level shear available. A break in activity is expected this afternoon and some clearing of clouds are expected to occur, with highs expected to warm mainly in the low/mid 80s across the area.
624 AM CDT Thu May 9 2024 (Today) Cold front is currently located from far NW AR through far SE OK and westward across N TX. Further north across NE OK into far NW AR an isolated high based shower is possible this afternoon, though most locations will remain dry with cooler temperatures.
Dayshift will monitor temps, as RH values may fall more into the 20s if temps are even warmer than fcst. Expect a mostly sunny sky today with dry airmass over the area due to high pressure in NW Ontario.
354 AM MDT Thu May 9 2024 - Snow will increase over the higher terrain late this afternoon and continue tonight into Friday. The upper level low that was over the central US will split into two parts as one piece of energy reforms into a weaker closed low over ern UT and wrn CO. Overall, there is only weak QG ascent across the area thru tonight but moisture depth and lapse rates will be favorable in and near the higher terrain. Models are still showing an upper closed low over the southern Great Basin at 12Z Friday morning along with weak upper troughing stretched west to east across the forecast area.
653 AM EDT Thu May 9 2024 Low pressure will track across the area this afternoon and evening. High pressure will briefly build in for Friday.
Current water vapor imagery shows a broad/elongated trough across much of the Northern CONUS while surface obs show nearly homogeneous surface pressure across the region. The upper trough is forecast to split into a closed low over the Western CONUS while the main trough axis positions over the Great Lakes. There could be a few showers over Eastern Colorado this afternoon and evening with the edge of the closed low over the area and some mid level moisture. The cloud cover is forecast to continue to stream in from the west with the upper low forecast to stay roughly in position. The upper cut-off low near the west coast is forecast to begin moving back into the main flow to the east.
621 AM EDT Thu May 9 2024 Several cool and unsettled days are in store as a warm front remains south of most of our forecast area and moist onshore wind flow continues.
SPC keeps an Enhanced Risk (3/5) of severe weather for the lower CSRA and a Slight Risk (2/5) for the rest of the forecast area. One more potentially active convective day Friday ahead of the advancing cold front. Additional thunderstorm development possible late in the day over the northeastern Midlands as the main upper trough axis swings through.
625 AM CDT Thu May 9 2024 A cold front will push through north Mississippi today. High pressure will build into the region on Friday with dry and cooler weather for the weekend.
High pressure will begin to push into the region, but cooler temperatures will lag behind as a cold front slowly pushes its way through the area later today.
We are getting to the hotter time of year across the Florida Keys with temperatures already in the lower to mid 80s and dew points in the lower to mid 70s this morning. There is a veering profile to the winds in the lowest levels but with moisture and a trigger lacking, no changes expected this update and a dry day is expected. From synopsis, high pressure over the western North Atlantic will maintain gentle to moderate southeast breezes this afternoon and tonight.
There is broad troughing from the Dakotas to Utah with a low centered over the western Dakotas and one centered over southeast Utah. There continues to be strong high pressure ridging off the Pacific coast with a ridge of high pressure folded over the Canada and United Sates border. There is currently high pressure and dry air over our northern areas and weak instability and moisture over our southeast areas. A frost advisory remains in effect for the Shoshone, Eastern Magic valley, and Upper Snake Plain for this morning with temperatures in the low 30s to mid to upper 30s. By Friday, expect mostly clear skies, dry conditions, and even warmer temperatures, 4 to 8 degrees above normal. The low pressure in Utah might bring enough moisture and instability to our extreme southeast areas by Bear Lake, but it is not that likely.
Troughing will remain over the Great Basin Region through Friday, as high pressure tries to build eastward over California from the Pacific. Main ridging with this high pressure system will spread north of California over the Pacific Northwest.
The highest risk areas early this morning should be from I-40 southward, mainly the southern plateau, Southern Valley and southwest North Carolina. 6 hour FFG is generally 1 to 2 inches across the areas that have received the higher totals and maybe lower with tonight's rainfall.
JKL Satellite imagery showed deep northeasterly flow over our region rotating around a large upper low over the NE/SD border extending SW into Utah. Currently some drier air had infiltrated over our eastern zones and fog was developing due to the rich moisture in the lower boundary layer. high pressure aloft will prevail leading to a pleasant spring day with highs warming into the 60s for most locations.
308 AM MDT Thu May 9 2024 Satellite imagery showed deep northeasterly flow over our region rotating around a large upper low over the NE/SD border extending SW into Utah. Currently some drier air had infiltrated over our eastern zones and fog was developing due to the rich moisture in the lower boundary layer. high pressure aloft will prevail leading to a pleasant spring day with highs warming into the 60s for most locations.
517 AM MDT Thu May 9 2024 - Snow will increase over the higher terrain late this afternoon and continue tonight into Friday. The upper level low that was over the central US will split into two parts as one piece of energy reforms into a weaker closed low over ern UT and wrn CO. Overall, there is only weak QG ascent across the area thru tonight but moisture depth and lapse rates will be favorable in and near the higher terrain. Models are still showing an upper closed low over the southern Great Basin at 12Z Friday morning along with weak upper troughing stretched west to east across the forecast area.
Issued by National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 927 AM CDT Thu May 9 2024 - Slightly warmer temperatures with isolated afternoon and evening showers expected today.
One more potentially active convective day Friday ahead of the advancing cold front. Additional thunderstorm development possible late in the day over the northeastern Midlands as the main upper trough axis swings through.
Forecast guidance depicts the upper air low moving west- southwestward towards the Great Basin region through the day which will allow a ridge to build just off over the Pacific Coast and cause the CWA's upper air flow to become northeasterly. The recent overnight near to below freezing temperature threat will still be present tonight into tomorrow morning, but the area of concern looks to be only for the Tahoe Basin down south to Mono Country.
640 AM CDT Thu May 9 2024 - Slightly warmer temperatures with isolated afternoon and evening showers expected today.
346 AM PDT Thu May 9 2024 Temperatures continue to trend warmer this afternoon as high pressure builds over the region with a thermal trough along the coast. East breezes become widespread as well today, which will aid in the warmer and almost summer like weather across the region. Cooler temperatures are anticipated east of the Cascades with a Lakeview only around 65 and temperatures around 71 in Klamath Falls.
706 AM EDT Thu May 9 2024 Low pressure will exit into the Maritimes today. Low pressure will track to our south Friday while high pressure builds to our north.
629 AM EDT Thu May 9 2024 - Much cooler today with increasing rain showers toward the southern Michigan border.
The low pressure system that is currently centered over the northern AZ and southern UT border and continues the dry westerly flow aloft.
Temperatures will be quite warm today, with most spots reaching the low to mid 80s. We'll start to feel the cooler air tonight and especially tomorrow. The severe threat will continue until a cold front, which is currently situated west of the Mississippi River, finally pushes this volatile air mass east of us. Look for cooler temperatures to accompany the drier air Thursday night and Friday.
Cooler conditions are anticipated over the weekend with a shift in the synoptic pattern from the northwest. ------------------------------------------------------------------- The center of low pressure system is currently located in central Indiana at the moment. Based on ground observations across the region, the warm front is situated along I-70. As the center of the low ventures east into the Ohio River Valley, wind shear in the southern sector of the low will increase rom the west/southwest. With clouds, convection throughout the day, and cool northeast flow, temperatures will likely trend cooler than average for areas north of I-70; near average for areas south with in the warm sector.
The upper level flow is expected to split with weak high pressure over much of the North Country which should shunt the bulk of shower activity south of the region. Scattered showers can be expected this weekend as an upper level trough swings across the region.
(Tonight through Friday night) While today does look to be the hottest day for the week, however a bit of relief is expected with a cold front moving into Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley. Thanks to the cold front expected highs for tomorrow are closer to normal in the upper 80s to low 90s. As for rain chances, even with this cold front, chances of rain are still not great. The mid-levels continue to be very dry and with some influence from mid-level ridge the environment continues not to be favorable for any sort of development of showers and thunderstorms. However, towards the end of the short term forecast period on Friday night, the influence of the mid-level ridge is expected to weaken a bit, which might allow for some isolated showers and thunderstorms to pop up.
Most low temperatures will remain above freezing due to available low level moisture. The upper trough retrogrades further west across Nevada and Utah, which should limit the scattered shower and isolated thunderstorm coverage further west than today, to the west of a Douglas to Kimball line. The weekend looks to end up mainly dry, thanks in large part to dry northwest flow moving down over the northern Rockies and into the high plains.
Tonight, a few isolated showers and possibly a thunderstorm across extreme northeast TN and southwest VA, out ahead of a longwave trough approaching from the northwest. Tomorrow will be cooler with northwest flow, clouds, and isolated showers.
Cooler temperatures are expected behind the cold front tonight into Friday, with temperatures only reaching into the mid 70s to lower 80s.
Mid afternoon surface analysis had a cold front nearly along a Tupelo to Greenville Mississippi line. South of the cold front temperatures have reach 90F with dew points in the mid to upper 70s. These conditions were resulting in heat index values in the lower 100s and many sites will peak near 105F. Although the severe threat will end by 3AM, the cold front will be moving through our CWA and some anafrontal rainfall will prolong rain chances into Friday morning. As the cold front continues shifting southeast of our CWA, much drier and cooler air moving into the region in its wake will bring an end to the rain before noon. Afternoon highs will be cooler and held into the 70s across our north with low to mid 80s across our south.
- Temperatures will be cooler than normal Friday, but seasonable the rest of the forecast period. The low responsible for yesterday's severe thunderstorms is spinning through central Illinois currently, its cold front entering southeastern Missouri and southwestern Illinois. Tomorrow, the eastern portion of the upper-level trough will deepen across the eastern CONUS, placing the Middle Mississippi Valley beneath deep northwesterly flow. Within this flow, cooler air will move into the CWA, causing temperatures to run below climatological normals.
An elongated trough at 500 MB stretches from Colorado into the Great Lakes and sits across eastern Iowa and northwest Illinois early this afternoon. The elongated trough is forecast to sink south of the area tonight bring rain to an end from north to south between 7 PM and 1 AM. This will also bring a cold front across the area Friday night.
244 PM EDT Thu May 9 2024 A cold front will approach the area tonight and pass through on Friday, bringing scattered showers and thunderstorms. High pressure will move in for the weekend.
- Warmer this weekend, with less rain chances. That low pressure system that has brought gusty winds, rain, snow, and cloudy days has finally weakened and is moving eastward today. For west locations, chances (30% to 50%) will generally be confined to the higher terrain, with a few showers moving off the mountains to the nearby lower elevations. The main impacts of this low remain to our south, but some moisture continues rain chances (15%-30%) overnight for east of the Divide locations, mainly for the mountains, and near Lander and Casper where favored upslope occurs. Ridging sets up for this weekend.
A dryline currently stretches from around Sweetwater south through just east of Sonora, while a southward moving cold front stretched from Sweetwater east through Baird. Cooler temperatures are expected behind the cold front tonight into Friday, with temperatures only reaching into the mid 70s to lower 80s.
As we go into our Friday the cold front that is currently starting to push into the southeast will start to head our way.
- A cold front passing tonight will usher in cooler temperatures from Friday through the weekend, with warming then returning. One such feature is interacting with a diffuse low pressure center, stretching roughly from SW OH to central VA, to generate some really light rain showers embedded within a larger scale stratocumulus field. Expect some low clouds to swipe across our area, especially along and just ahead of the cold front that will pull our temperatures to below normal.
A storm or two could become marginally severe near the Red River, closer to the cold front, before shifting southeast.