Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Rain and clouds will lead to cooler temperatures (highs in the 80s/low 90s), especially for those areas north of the frontal boundary. The higher heat index values could be possible in some areas north of I-40 but with uncertainty of where the boundary and/or rain/clouds held off on an advisory for now.
Temperatures have risen into the lower and middle 90s in most areas and will likely climb a couple more degrees as we go through the rest of the afternoon.
214 PM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024 High pressure will continue to remain overhead tonight, moving southeast of the New England coast on Wednesday with warm and dry conditions as a result. Quiet night tonight with high pressure nearly overhead. Therefore lows should be a bit warmer tonight. Wednesday will be a fair weather day with winds picking up from the south as high pressure continues to moves offshore and a cold front approaches from the west. A warm front approaches from the west Wednesday night bringing a chance of showers later at night and perhaps an isolated thunderstorm. A cold front quickly follows but looks to pass with little fanfare Thu.
This ridge of high pressure will be the dominant weather factor through mid-week keeping a predominant southeast wind flow over the region. Daytime highs will top out in the low to mid 90's with heat indices reaching 100-107 degrees. (Wednesday night through next Tuesday) Throughout the next 3-7 days, high pressure to our north will begin to move southeast and become centered to the east-northeast of the state, dominating the overall weather pattern and establishing a predominantly east-southeast flow across our CWA. High pressure ridging through the center part of the state is producing a light south to southeast flow today, becoming more east- southeast on Wednesday and continuing through the rest of the week.
(Through Wednesday) Upper level ridge remains in control of the weather pattern through Wednesday while plenty of deep-layer tropical moisture remains in place thanks to moist east and southeasterly flow.
(This evening through Wednesday) Expect hot and dry conditions again on Wednesday as an upper level ridge remains across the area. Temperatures will be comparable to today with highs in the upper 90s to around 105, with the warmer temperatures expected across our western counties. Heat indices may be a couple degrees warmer with south to southeast winds returning, keeping the low level moisture more in place, slowing the deep mixing we've seen the past few days. The strong upper ridge that has been overhead for much of this first portion of summer is expected to weaken and shift east by the end of the week.
1102 AM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024 High pressure will pass over the region maintaining dry weather through Wednesday. It is a mostly clear night with high pressure centered over NY State, and extending over the Mid Atlantic region. Aloft, ridging builds in with rising heights.
- Warmer and more humid for Wednesday with peak afternoon heat indices in low to mid 90s south of US Route 24.
From synopsis, high pressure over the western North Atlantic will maintain gentle to moderate easterly breezes across the Florida Keys.
1246 PM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024 Mild temperatures for July are expected on Wednesday as high pressure builds in from the north. As the high moves offshore later this week, increasing heat and humidity could lead to dangerous heat indices developing by the weekend. Weak low pressure has formed along this frontal boundary, allowing for some isolated light showers to fall over the adjacent coastal waters. NE to ENE winds persist today and tonight, allowing for the cooler air to stick around. Lows tonight in the low-to-mid 60s inland, lower 70s at the coast. The subtropical ridge at 500 mb should remain centered across Alabama and Georgia, close enough for a warm convective cap to remain over the eastern Carolinas between 600-700 mb.
213 PM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024 High pressure will pass over the region maintaining dry weather through Wednesday.
(Today and tonight) An upper level ridge centered across the Southeast U. Temperatures will be comparable to today with highs in the upper 90s to around 105, with the warmer temperatures expected across our western counties. Heat indices may be a couple degrees warmer with south to southeast winds returning, keeping the low level moisture more in place, slowing the deep mixing we've seen the past few days. The strong upper ridge that has been overhead for much of this first portion of summer is expected to weaken and shift east by the end of the week.
The highest chances will be the central and southern mountains, but not much rain is expected.
Mostly dry and warmer on Wednesday. Mostly dry and warmer tomorrow with ridging centered to our south. Otherwise, warmer tomorrow with temps in the lower 90s for most areas.
Triple-digit heat will continue Tuesday as well, albeit a degree or two cooler.
200 PM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024 Cool and dry high pressure will remain in control through tomorrow.
As the upper-level trough persists overhead, the surface cold front has stalled across SW Kansas with benign showers along it. Around 1Z, another weaker cold front is expected to move through the forecast area via ensembles. The cold front will again shift the winds to being from the NW. As the last of the convection in our northern zones moves out and the cold front passes over SW Kansas a slightly cooler airmass takes residence over the forecast area. Additionally, the wind shift to the NW after the cold front passage will result in CAA further adding to cool temperatures on Independence Day.
(Tonight through Wednesday night) The benign weather regime featuring hot and rain free conditions under mostly clear to partly cloudy skies will continue as a mid- level ridge continues to influence the region, despite the ridge becoming gradually more centered across the Southeastern US.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms have formed in the cyclonic flow in the Dakotas around the low.
Shower and thunderstorm chances increase (40-75%) again on Wednesday as a trough and associated cold front drop south and east through the area. As the trough shifts east into the Dakotas and begins to wrap up, moisture and energy over the area will keep shower and thunderstorm chances continuing into Wednesday night.
(Rest of today through Wednesday) Started off today much cooler than we've been experiencing lately.
1218 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024 (Today and tonight) An upper level ridge centered across the Southeast U.
251 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024 Today through Next Tuesday: A broad area of high pressure will continue to dominate the South Central States through Wednesday. Tomorrow high pressure and ridging aloft will steadily continue to build east into the southeastern CONUS states where it will remain for the remainder of the period.
Motion of cloud elements seen on GOES-16 hi res visible satellite imagery nicely trace out the location of the low level ridge axis which extends from the Atlc across the northern Bahamas (Great Abaco/Grand Bahama) and westward across the Treasure coast/Lake Okeechobee.
359 PM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024 Upper level ridge builds to the east as low pressure centered over the Midwest lifts a warm front across the region tonight. This low will then drag a cold front east across the region during the afternoon and evening on Wednesday.
Issued by National Weather Service Burlington VT 126 PM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024 High pressure will crest over the area today then move east Wednesday. A warm front will cross the region Wednesday night.
Composite satellite analysis places a mid-latitude upper-level trough off the Eastern Seaboard, separating a mid-level ridge over the Mississippi Valley and a second ridge over the central and eastern North Atlantic. Meanwhile, at the surface, a stationary front remains draped over the Southeast, along with an expansive area of high pressure over much of the North Atlantic, and last but certainly not least, Major Hurricane Beryl in the southern Caribbean en route to the island of Jamaica. We mentioned earlier that there was a chance for some confluence- generated shower development to occur this afternoon as the low- level flow gradually shifted from the southeast to east from east to west. The ridge over the Mississippi Valley will slowly expand eastward, becoming the dominant feature for the Florida Keys for the next several days.
320 PM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024 High pressure will settle east of the area tonight, allowing breezy south to southwesterly flow to develop on Wednesday.
Satellite imagery shows widespread low level stratus still hanging around across much of Wisconsin this afternoon, with some cooler cloud tops starting to pop up along the Iowa/Minnesota border associated with the convection. As this system exits, ridging will move in, allowing for a really solid summer day tomorrow with temperatures in the low 80s and mostly sunny skies.
117 PM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024 High pressure brings dry weather into Wednesday.
637 PM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024 High pressure will settle east of the area tonight, allowing breezy south to southwesterly flow to develop on Wednesday.
1055 PM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024 High pressure will push off of the Mid Atlantic coast tonight and Wednesday. A dying cold front will push in from the Great Lakes Wednesday night, then stall out over the area late this week.
629 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024 (This evening through Wednesday Night) By this evening, the area of high pressure aloft will have moved very little from its position today. If anything, the area of ridging will only broaden westward into tomorrow, locking in place its continued influence on this streak of above average temperatures through this short term forecast period. As the upper level ridge continues to hold sway, tomorrow looks to be the warmest day of the week, as temperatures soar back into the upper 90s, with some sites hitting or just exceeding the century mark.
713 PM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024 (Through Wednesday) Upper level ridge remains in control of the weather pattern through Wednesday while plenty of deep-layer tropical moisture remains in place thanks to moist east and southeasterly flow.
This high maintains a ridge extending over Texas and into New Mexico, which is expected to remain largely unchanged over the next day or so. Subsidence under this high pressure system will be the primary driver of the current weather pattern, resulting in settled and warm conditions across South Texas. Despite the higher PWAT values, the overall dry air mass will limit convective activity, keeping the region dry.
717 PM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024 High pressure brings dry weather into Wednesday.
509 PM MDT Tue Jul 2 2024 - An unsettled weather pattern continues through this week as a trough remains over the region.
700 PM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024 Cool and dry high pressure will remain in control through tomorrow.
/20/ (This evening through Wednesday Night) By this evening, the area of high pressure aloft will have moved very little from its position today. If anything, the area of ridging will only broaden westward into tomorrow, locking in place its continued influence on this streak of above average temperatures through this short term forecast period. As the upper level ridge continues to hold sway, tomorrow looks to be the warmest day of the week, as temperatures soar back into the upper 90s, with some sites hitting or just exceeding the century mark.
A cold front has moved across much of the area which should help limit the potential for severe weather across much of the area. Wednesday, a broad upper trough extending west to east from the PACNW to the Great Lakes will enter the region.
351 PM MDT Tue Jul 2 2024 - An unsettled weather pattern continues through this week as a trough remains over the region.
/22/ Today through Next Tuesday: A broad area of high pressure will continue to dominate the South Central States through Wednesday. Tomorrow high pressure and ridging aloft will steadily continue to build east into the southeastern CONUS states where it will remain for the remainder of the period.
703 PM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024 High pressure will settle east of the area tonight, allowing breezy south to southwesterly flow to develop on Wednesday.
749 PM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024 As dry and cooler high pressure moves off the East Coast tonight and Wednesday, the heat wave will again become established for the second half of the week.
If a strong enough updraft were to develop initially, perhaps some hail would be possible, but high freezing levels lead to lower confidence in this threat.
623 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024 (Tonight through Wednesday night) The benign weather regime featuring hot and rain free conditions under mostly clear to partly cloudy skies will continue as a mid- level ridge continues to influence the region, despite the ridge becoming gradually more centered across the Southeastern US.
706 PM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024 High pressure will continue to remain overhead tonight, moving southeast of the New England coast on Wednesday with warm and dry conditions as a result. Quiet night tonight with high pressure nearly overhead. Therefore lows should be a bit warmer tonight. Wednesday will be a fair weather day with winds picking up from the south as high pressure continues to moves offshore and a cold front approaches from the west. A warm front approaches from the west Wednesday night bringing a chance of showers later at night and perhaps an isolated thunderstorm. A cold front quickly follows but looks to pass with little fanfare Thu.
1001 PM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024 Cool and dry high pressure will remain in control through tomorrow.
559 PM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024 High pressure along the coast will gradually work farther offshore through Wednesday.
633 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024 Today through Next Tuesday: A broad area of high pressure will continue to dominate the South Central States through Wednesday. Tomorrow high pressure and ridging aloft will steadily continue to build east into the southeastern CONUS states where it will remain for the remainder of the period.
652 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024 (This evening through Wednesday) Expect hot and dry conditions again on Wednesday as an upper level ridge remains across the area. Temperatures will be comparable to today with highs in the upper 90s to around 105, with the warmer temperatures expected across our western counties. Heat indices may be a couple degrees warmer with south to southeast winds returning, keeping the low level moisture more in place, slowing the deep mixing we've seen the past few days. The strong upper ridge that has been overhead for much of this first portion of summer is expected to weaken and shift east by the end of the week.
1040 PM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024 High pressure along the coast will gradually work farther offshore through Wednesday.
941 PM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024 As dry and cooler high pressure moves off the East Coast tonight and Wednesday, the heat wave will again become established for the second half of the week.
Currently - Ridging dominates the local region through the depth of the troposphere. A surface through lower level ridging stretches westward from the Atlantic into Florida and along the gulf coast. Meanwhile mid and upper level ridging is aligned over the southeastern United States. This evenings sounding indicated somewhat dry air through the lower levels along with limited low level inhibition. Short Term Update - Ridging will continue to dominate the area through the overnight period. Despite ample CAPE and moisture, the background ridging and low level inhibition will keep convective coverage at bay. Ridging will remain across Florida.
605 PM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024 As dry and cooler high pressure moves off the East Coast tonight and Wednesday, the heat wave will again become established for the second half of the week.
725 PM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024 High pressure along the coast will gradually work farther offshore through Wednesday.
The Atlc high pressure ridge axis will lift north of the waters tonight and produce a more steady onshore flow Wednesday.
642 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024 (Rest of today through Wednesday) Started off today much cooler than we've been experiencing lately.
858 PM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024 High pressure will push off of the Mid Atlantic coast tonight and Wednesday. A dying cold front will push in from the Great Lakes Wednesday night, then stall out over the area late this week.
These will continue to dissipate over the next few hours, with mostly clear skies leading to overnight lows ranging from the low 70s to a cool low 60s across the region. Mostly dry and warmer on Wednesday. Mostly dry and warmer tomorrow with ridging centered to our south. Otherwise, warmer tomorrow with temps in the lower 90s for most areas.
937 PM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024 High pressure will settle east of the area tonight, allowing breezy south to southwesterly flow to develop on Wednesday.
807 PM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024 Slightly cooler and drier air will remain over the area through tonight. Ridging builds into the area late this week and into the weekend resulting in above normal temperatures and Heat Index values near 110 possible.
222 PM PDT Tue Jul 2 2024 Warming temperatures with continued dry weather through the Independence Day holiday with more significant heat building across the Great Basin into this weekend as a strong ridge nudges eastward out of California.
Temperatures and dew points at this time yesterday were about 15 degrees cooler than right now. It's pretty warm and muggy out there still and it's going to be like this for at least the next few days as upper ridging covers the southeast US. (Rest of today through Wednesday) Started off today much cooler than we've been experiencing lately.
Water vapor satellite imagery early this morning shows broad mid/upper troughing across the northern plains, and upper air analysis suggests Kansas remains in the right entrance region of jet max over the Midwest. Storm chances should gradually wane from west to east this afternoon, but another round of storms is forecast to develop across the High Plains. A strong MCS is expected to develop across the High Plains this afternoon, but there is still quite of bit of uncertainty about how far east this complex will stay organized enough to produce severe weather.
Discussion: Upper ridge reaches its fullest extent across the southeast relative to our local weather forecast today, with the 594 dm contour extending into southern Kentucky. Underneath, the southwesterly low level flow will continue to work to advect warmer and more humid air northwards across East Tennessee and the region at large.
The rest of the area could have some fair wx CU this afternoon with highs in the low to mid 80s. The trough over the northern Rockies will dig southeast tonight and begin to reach the Upper Mississippi Valley late tonight and early Thursday. As the upper low continues across the northern Plains and reaches MN late Thursday, it will continue digging and become neutrally tilted. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected by afternoon, which will continue Thursday night along and north of the low track.
120 AM EDT Wed Jul 3 2024 High pressure will settle east of the area tonight, allowing breezy south to southwesterly flow to develop on Wednesday.
1159 PM MDT Tue Jul 2 2024 Aviation Section Updated An active pattern will bring showers and thunderstorms to much of the Northern Rockies through Thursday afternoon, with the highest concentrations of showers and storms occurring on Wednesday. Areal coverage/footprint of individual showers and storms will be relatively small throughout the timeframe; however, Wednesday will have the highest concentration of showers and thunderstorms, especially north of the US Hwy 12 corridor. The upper level ridge will try to move east of the CWA today. Thus there will be a small chance for a light shower through late afternoon, the North Central MT having the highest chances.
303 AM EDT Wed Jul 3 2024 High pressure will move southeast of the New England coast today with warm and dry conditions as a result. Another very quiet day expected today as a ridge of high pressure anchored over the Northeast gradually eases off the New England coastline this afternoon. It will become cooler along the immediate coastline as winds become onshore during the afternoon. A cold front will begin to dissipate over the region on Independence Day. Cooler conditions can be expected along the coastline where a sea breeze develops during the day.
132 AM EDT Wed Jul 3 2024 (Through Wednesday) Upper level ridge remains in control of the weather pattern through Wednesday while plenty of deep-layer tropical moisture remains in place thanks to moist east and southeasterly flow.
The highest chances will be the central and southern mountains, but not much rain is expected. The amplifying ridge over the West will continue to push dry air in and fight back any threat of monsoon moisture's return.
(Today through Thursday) Upper level ridge has built in over the southeast and that is going to bring a stretch of hot weather for our area through the the 4th July. Highs today will push into the low to mid 90s and once you factor in the humidity it will feel 100 to 112. A short wave trough will be pushing through the Great Lakes pushing a cold front south. With the high dew points we will see plenty of CAPE across the area (1500-2500+ j/kg). The front will sag further south into our area as a stationary front and will eventually lift north as a warm front.
High pressure will remain over the region through Thursday, allowing temperatures to soar into the upper 90s to near 100 degrees. For Independence Day, the best chances for some of natures fireworks will be across our south and eastern zones, however, a stray shower or two could be possible once again outside of the highest PoPs.
Upper level trough moving through areas to the north will be close enough to trigger showers and thunderstorms in the northeast highlands for this afternoon and evening. Otherwise, this trough keeps temperatures cool and increases the wind. These conditions are not expected to return on Thu as the upper level ridge continues to build and protect the forecast area from any strong wind aloft that would bring stronger wind.
A cold front has moved across much of the area which should help limit the potential for severe weather across much of the area. Wednesday, a broad upper trough extending west to east from the PACNW to the Great Lakes will enter the region. Thursday, the upper trough sags southward over the area.
Temperatures each day will generally range from the upper 80s along the immediate East Coast to the low 90s across interior and southwest FL. Overnight temperatures will remain warm, providing little relief from the heat, with lows in the mid 70s over the interior and in the low 80s along the immediate coastlines.
(Today and tonight) Upper level ridging situated on top of rich tropical moisture will continue through today. High pressure will slide down the eastern seaboard with east-southeast surface flow with a rich theta boundary along its axis, serving as a weak boundary to initiate storms this afternoon. High temperatures areawide will reach the low to mid 90s with overnight lows in the upper 70s.
Again, iso/sct SHRA/TSRA will form along the inland-moving breeze, with the highest coverage across inland sites after 19z-21z. The Atlc high pressure ridge axis will lift north of the waters tonight and produce a more steady onshore flow Wednesday.
1227 AM EDT Wed Jul 3 2024 High pressure will settle east of the area tonight, allowing breezy south to southwesterly flow to develop on Wednesday.
High confidence exists in a strong high pressure ridge building off the West Coast on Wednesday and then migrating towards the east gradually through the weekend.
1202 AM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024 (This evening through Wednesday) Expect hot and dry conditions again on Wednesday as an upper level ridge remains across the area.
A surface warm front will lift across our area today, and warmer and more humid air will settle over the region. During the overnight hours we will have light rain showers spread across the north country associated with a cold frontal passage. Drier weather will return on Thursday behind departing cold front, though temperatures will still be quite warm.