Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
01z/8pm satellite imagery and surface analysis shows the cold front has now exited the E/SE KILX CWA. Barnes As of 200pm this afternoon, a cold front stretches from near Bloomington to Rushville while a prefrontal trough is in place from Champaign to Shelbyville. An expansive area of low stratus is in place along and behind the prefrontal trough. The cold front will settle south of the Ohio Valley tomorrow while weak area of high pressure builds over the Great Lakes.
More showers and weaker thunderstorms are expected not only this evening but through the night, as upstream trof combines w/ a Canadian frontal passage. JKL Main forecast concerns are on the potential for severe thunderstorms this afternoon into this evening, then focus turns to cooler temperatures and shower chances, along with a few thunderstorms, on Wednesday. Convective allowing models (CAMS) are in good agreement this afternoon indicating convection will get going over the higher terrain/western areas of the forecast area in the 2 to 4 PM timeframe then push eastward through the late afternoon and evening hours. On Wednesday the main trough pushes in from the northwest bringing much cooler air to the region.
715 PM EDT Tue Aug 6 2024 (Through Wednesday) Upper level ridging and subsidence from the proximity of Debby's remnants to the forecast area tomorrow will continue to lead to predominantly clear conditions across the forecast area. High temperatures across SW Georgia and portions of the Florida Big Bend will predominantly struggle to reach the low to mid 90s as some cloud cover may still be present from Debby.
A weak cold front is located to the north in Arkansas and Oklahoma and will move southward into the area the area by sunrise. The persistent upper-level ridge shows no signs of breaking down or retreating throughout this short-term period, or the remainder of this week for that matter.
917 PM EDT Tue Aug 6 2024 A cold front will move south through the area late today into tonight, with a chance of storms. Slightly cooler and less humid air will then move into the region for Wednesday and through the end of the week. Another cold front will likely bring some additional cooling and drying for the weekend. Northeasterly surface flow dominates the entire area as the low pressure washes out/merges with the lower pressure associated with TC Debby over the southeast US. Most locations stay in the 70s with the Ohio River still rising into the lower to mid 80s. Overnight temperatures are once again cooler across eastern Indiana and west-central Ohio with upper 50s possible.
650 PM EDT Tue Aug 6 2024 - Scattered showers and thunderstorms south of I-94 come to an end this evening as low pressure departs across the Ohio Valley.
JKL Main forecast concerns are on the potential for severe thunderstorms this afternoon into this evening, then focus turns to cooler temperatures and shower chances, along with a few thunderstorms, on Wednesday. Convective allowing models (CAMS) are in good agreement this afternoon indicating convection will get going over the higher terrain/western areas of the forecast area in the 2 to 4 PM timeframe then push eastward through the late afternoon and evening hours. On Wednesday the main trough pushes in from the northwest bringing much cooler air to the region.
612 PM CDT Tue Aug 6 2024 (Tonight through Wednesday night) The center of the upper level ridge remains centered to our northwest with a slight weakness to our south. Seeing a decent coverage of afternoon fair weather cumulus clouds with temperatures in the lower to middle 90s for most of the area. The upper ridge is expected to build more into South-Central Texas tomorrow and with that should see a slight increase in temperatures. Another quiet night is expected tomorrow night with lows in the middle 70s to near 80 degrees with the highest temperatures near the Rio Grande.
654 PM CDT Tue Aug 6 2024 A dry cold front will impact the Mid-South on Wednesday, providing some much needed relief from the heat and humidity through the end of the work week.
1046 PM EDT Tue Aug 6 2024 - Scattered showers and thunderstorms south of I-94 come to an end this evening as low pressure departs across the Ohio Valley.
Strong mid level ridging will remain in place across the Southern Plains on Wednesday with 850mb temperatures continuing to warm.
With the exception of a few coastal and bayside locations, temperatures are generally running warmer than 24 hours ago as the marine layer compressed overnight and was not able to protrude as far inland. For those at risk, reduce time in the sun during the warmest part of the day, stay hydrated, stay in a cool place during the heat of the day, move outdoor activities to cooler times of the day, and for those without air conditioning, use fans to keep air moving and open windows at night. The upper-level ridge will weaken and in doing so the current 300 feet deep marine layer will be allowed to deepen. Temperatures will still be warm tomorrow, but slightly cooler than today.
712 PM EDT Tue Aug 6 2024 - Hot and humid today - Isolated thunderstorms late today into this evening - Cooler and less humid Wednesday - Much cooler and low humidly this weekend. Behind the front, cooler and drier conditions will settle across the region. The synoptic- scale pattern shift will lead to cooler temperatures as a Canadian continental air mass pushes in from the NW. In return, the ridge over the Great Plains will wain, allow a more efficient advection of cold air into the Ohio Valley.
608 PM CDT Tue Aug 6 2024 (Tonight) A narrow ridge of high pressure will weaken as it shifts into the TN valley tonight.
615 PM CDT Tue Aug 6 2024 Hot and dry pattern should continue for the remainder of the week under the influence of upper ridging, reinforced by Tropical Storm Debby to the east. Wednesday is likely to be the hottest day of the year so far, with temperatures peaking in the low 100s. Uncertainty exists in the extent of heat risk given dry conditions favoring deep mixing, resulting in dewpoints in the low 70s and even upper 60s.
Persistent high pressure continues to influence the forecast region with temperatures residing several degrees warmer than average the next few days. Tonight through Wednesday Night High pressure remains in control over the American Southwest as a short wave continues to transit west to east across the PacNW. This will effectively flatten the high pressure ridge with upper flow turning westerly. Excessive heat warnings and advisories are scheduled to expire tonight, but temperatures will remain warmer than average. Daytime highs tomorrow will be in the 90s with overnight lows in the low 50s to low 60s, again warmer near Wendover with low to mid 70s forecast.
For those at risk, reduce time in the sun during the warmest part of the day, stay hydrated, stay in a cool place during the heat of the day, move outdoor activities to cooler times of the day, and for those without air conditioning, use fans to keep air moving and open windows at night. The upper-level ridge will weaken and in doing so the current 300 feet deep marine layer will be allowed to deepen. Temperatures will still be warm tomorrow, but slightly cooler than today.
1042 PM EDT Tue Aug 6 2024 Tropical Cyclone Debby is currently centered near the lower South Carolina coast bringing widespread rain to the area roughly within 100 miles of the coast.
627 PM CDT Tue Aug 6 2024 (This evening through Wednesday night) A strong upper-level ridge is stationed overhead which will lead to widespread highs in the upper-90s to mid-100s. Some thunderstorms may develop tomorrow afternoon in the higher terrain of northern New Mexico/southern Colorado and track into the northwestern combined Panhandles. Latest NBM came in up to a few degrees cooler than previous runs. Will opt to issue a Heat Advisory for Palo Duro Canyon as that has the highest confidence of reaching at least 105 degrees, but will hold off on issuing elsewhere for now given uncertainty in where the clouds may linger, and which counties could hit 105 degrees.
912 PM CDT Tue Aug 6 2024 Surface analysis this evening places a cold front from Ohio back through southwest Missouri and northern Oklahoma. Short-term model trends indicate the aforementioned cold front will drop into the Lower Mississippi Valley overnight into Wednesday morning. CJC A dry cold front will impact the Mid-South on Wednesday, providing some much needed relief from the heat and humidity through the end of the work week.
Over our region, weak high pressure providing light and variable winds this evening. Aloft, the mid to upper level ridge over the Western and Central U.
High pressure will remain in place across the region.
Upper level troughing returns late in the week, however little to no precipitation is expected due to the dry air mass. Zonal flow aloft will persist through Wednesday and will support warmer temperatures on Wednesday. Upper level flow will shift to the southwest as ridging centered over the Great Basin region builds northward into the PNW.
741 PM EDT Tue Aug 6 2024 Tropical Cyclone Debby is currently centered near the lower South Carolina coast bringing widespread rain to the area roughly within 100 miles of the coast.
608 PM CDT Tue Aug 6 2024 (This evening through Wednesday) A strong upper ridge centered over the Four Corners region will allow for hot and dry weather to continue.
(Tonight through Wednesday) The combination of subsidence and mid-level ridging will result in inactive weather conditions through Wednesday.
712 PM EDT Tue Aug 6 2024 Showers and thunderstorms are expected into this evening as low pressure crosses the region. Shower chances will continue into Wednesday as the low exits.
405 PM CDT Tue Aug 6 2024 - Diminishing rain may reach towards the James River this afternoon, however generally expecting quiet weather into the overnight with cooler than normal temperatures.
Isolated stronger storms are possible along a cold front during the afternoon in far eastern South Dakota.
339 AM EDT Wed Aug 7 2024 Slightly cooler air has moved into the area, with high pressure centered over southeastern Canada, and Tropical Storm Debby near the southeast coast.
Latest guidance indicates below-normal temperatures for tonight's lows across the forecast area as broader synoptic-scale troughing centered in Canada continues to dig its way south into the north central CONUS. A cooler, dryer continental airmass associated with the robust mid to upper-level low and the cold front accompanying it will be responsible for the forecast area's seasonal temperature trend. As the cold front continues to move east with the broader low pressure, higher pressure builds in behind, thus yielding benevolent late-summer weather for the region. Tomorrow's highs will be in the lower to mid 80s, with surface prevailing winds shifting to the east as the front traverses the Ohio River Valley. Precipitation chances are set to return tomorrow night into Thursday morning due to moisture advection associated with the aforementioned broader troughing to the north.
Upper level ridging remained over the central and southern Rockies per the 07Z water vapor imagery while the mean westerlies remained over the norther tier of the country. The bigger story may be the abnormally cool temperatures expected with the resurgent high pressure on Thursday. Have trended highs cooler for Thursday with models showing increasing cold air advection through the afternoon and expected clouds and showers inhibition insolation through the morning.
Highs in the north will reach the low 70s under sunny skies. In areas that are clear, lows will fall into the low 50s.
1252 AM EDT Wed Aug 7 2024 - Showers and thunderstorms ending by late evening - Cooler and less humid Wednesday - Much cooler and low humidity this weekend Despite a drier column through the mid levels and the best shear focusing east and northeast of the area. scattered convection finally fired up along the southward moving cold front over northern portions of the forecast area by late afternoon. while 70s were present further north as cooler air advects in. The main focus for the evening update is to time the departure of the convection over the next 2 hours or so as the cold front presses south. Behind the front, cooler and drier conditions will settle across the region.
117 AM EDT Wed Aug 7 2024 A cold front will move south through the area late today into tonight, with a chance of storms. Slightly cooler and less humid air will then move into the region for Wednesday and through the end of the week. Another cold front will likely bring some additional cooling and drying for the weekend. Northeasterly surface flow dominates the entire area as the low pressure washes out/merges with the lower pressure associated with TC Debby over the southeast US. Most locations stay in the 70s with the Ohio River still rising into the lower to mid 80s. Overnight temperatures are once again cooler across eastern Indiana and west-central Ohio with upper 50s possible.
1215 AM CDT Wed Aug 7 2024 Upper level trough is pushing into the Northeast and that is pushing a cold front towards Middle TN. The cloud cover will keep overnight lows a few degrees warmer than what we saw last night.
Some cooler air will be felt for most areas with temps a few deg cooler from Tue. The biggest change will be noticed across NRN sections where temps could be several deg cooler than seen on Tue. Depending on how long the low clouds hang on. where temps across NRN sections may be warmer than seen today. but cooler temps for SRN AR. Heat index values should remain below adv levels for most areas on Thu due to drier and slightly cooler air.
mostly over the higher terrain. The high pressure remains nearly stationary with only some slight wobbling to the west.
It has been warmer over eastern Montana, where better instability has been developing. Temperatures still look to remain on the cooler side throughout. A scattered showers/isolated thunderstorms arrive in northeast ND towards KDVL late this evening with better coverage/chances across eastern ND and northwest MN by late morning Wednesday as a cold front sweeps into the region from the northwest.
1238 AM CDT Wed Aug 7 2024 (Tonight through Wednesday night) Virtually no change to the current forecast, as sprawling and seasonably strong 500 mb ridge extends from the U.
232 AM MDT Wed Aug 7 2024 - Cold front passage today with scattered showers and thunderstorms, a few storms possibly strong this afternoon across mainly far southern South Dakota. Current surface analysis shows low pressure over southern MB, with cold front stretching across western ND into southern MT. Upper level analysis shows low pressure over northern MB, with trough covering south central Canada. Near zonal flow in place further south across the northern Rockies and northern Plains, with high pressure still over mostly the Four Corners region. Cold front will gradually move southeast through the area today, with breezy north to northwest winds developing.
/44/ (Thursday Night through Wednesday) It still looks like a cold front will begin to push through the region by Thursday, dropping temperatures a few degrees. As a whole, this cold front won't do much for afternoon highs, but it will help in brining dew points down a bunch.
1202 AM CDT Wed Aug 7 2024 (The rest of tonight) A weak cold front currently across northwest Arkansas into northeast Oklahoma will continue to sag south into southeast Oklahoma tonight. Overnight lows are forecast to several degrees cooler than last night across a good portion of the area.
---------------------------------------------------------------- With a mostly zonal orientation of the jet stream across the northern third of the CONUS, the ridge currently across the four corners will gradually shift eastward.
(Today) Tranquil weather continues early this morning with a strong area of high pressure centered over the Southern Plains remaining the the dominant feature across the area. To the east of the region the remnants of Debby continue to churn along the SC/GA coastline, with any clouds and precipitation remaining in place over there thanks to the blocking ridge in place over the Tennessee Valley. The main story, however, will continue to be the mostly clear and very warm conditions as temperatures return to the low to mid 90s. The drier air present (along the strong subsidence from the ridge) should stunt afternoon convection again, and will allow us to mix out again in the afternoon.
Valley high temperatures will reach the 70s along the divide, the mid-80s across western Montana, and the low-90s in Clearwater and Idaho County valleys. A surface cold front has pushed into north- central Montana, setting up an easterly gradient across northwest Montana. Showers and thunderstorms will focus primarily across northwest and west-central Montana through this afternoon and evening, as the surface cold front moves over the divide and initiates further shower and storm activity.
(Today through Thursday afternoon) Upper level ridge broadens over the area for today and Thursday. Tonight cools down near normal with highs in the low to mid 70s for most with highs near 80F along the Rio Grande and in the eastern most counties of the CWA. The ridge axis centers itself near the region on Thursday and vaults afternoon highs an extra 2-4 degrees areawide. Rain chances fall to near zero due to stronger subsidence from the nearby ridge.
As of this update, temperatures around interior portions of the CWA are running anywhere from 10-15 degrees warmer than this same time yesterday. Along the coast, things are much cooler with widespread mid 50s. For those at risk, reduce time in the sun during the warmest part of the day, stay hydrated, stay in a cool place during the heat of the day, move outdoor activities to cooler times of the day, and for those without air conditioning, use fans to keep air moving and open windows at night. The upper-level ridge will weaken and in doing so the current 300 feet deep marine layer will be allowed to deepen. Temperatures will still be warm tomorrow, but slightly cooler than today.
Over our region, weak high pressure providing light and variable winds this evening. Aloft, the mid to upper level ridge over the Western and Central U. A ridge aloft will remain in place through the short term. The ridge is and will remain centered over the southwest states while extending into the northern gulf coast. At the surface, weak high pressure remains in place locally while a weakening Debby is along the GA/SC coast. A light north to northwest wind is in place between the high and Debby. The light offshore flow is keeping the "cooler" sea breeze confined to the coast.
(Today through Thursday) Hot temperatures will be the main story through the short term period, as Debby remains off to our east and the 500mb ridge to the west maintains control. A weak upper trough axis will stretch southwestward into the Missouri Bootheel, supporting a dry surface front that will move into western Tennessee and northern Mississippi this afternoon. Ahead of the boundary, guidance is advertising a good opportunity for low-level moisture pooling and dewpoints remaining in the lower 70s across our northwest and western counties this afternoon.
This block will basically work in tandem with the extension of the subtropical ridge that has built and settled into the southwest CONUS, helping to slow movement of systems.
(Today through Thursday) The subtropical ridge remains relatively weak over much of the Texas coastal counties, but the E-W oriented axis extending into NE TX is building south over Central TX today. This, along with an eastward nudge of the low to mid level thermal ridge from west TX will boost many of our high temperatures into Heat Advisory level temperature values of 103 to 104 and heat indices into the 108-110 degree range. This looks mainly to impact the lower threshold areas depicted for "Coastal Office" with similar values expected to fall just short of reaching the higher threshold areas depicted for "Rio Grande Valley". Slightly hotter weather is depicted for the Rio Grande areas Thursday, as is noted by the thermal ridge forecast and MOS guidances.
- Coolest conditions expected for the weekend with high temperatures limited to the low to mid 70s. Northwestward extent of this better moisture return will depend on the strength of the low level PV anomaly as it progresses northward into Thursday night, but ensemble probs keep deeper moisture profiles and the more notable measurable precip probs well to the east across central/eastern Ohio. However, overall marginal moisture profiles and the fact the local area will only be grazed by stronger height falls associated with Upper Midwest upper trough argues for maintaining PoPs below mentionable criteria across the far northwest Thursday evening.
However, the western edge has shown some tendency of making it to the backside of the ridge and advect northward.
1234 AM CDT Wed Aug 7 2024 (This evening through Wednesday) A strong upper ridge centered over the Four Corners region will allow for hot and dry weather to continue.
239 AM CDT Wed Aug 7 2024 - Much cooler and less humid conditions will prevail through the coming weekend. Significantly cooler temperatures will be in place across the region today. While temperatures likely will remain in the 70s through at least early afternoon, any breaks in the clouds should boost readings into the low 80s. Thursday will be warmer (highs in the mid to upper 80s), but still not too bad given what we've recently endured. 00z guidance has trended a bit quicker with the trough diving down across the Great Lakes into the Ohio Valley late in the week.
Temperatures set to climb another few degrees as the thermal ridge builds into the area.
1216 AM CDT Wed Aug 7 2024 (This evening through Wednesday night) A strong upper-level ridge is stationed overhead which will lead to widespread highs in the upper-90s to mid-100s. Some thunderstorms may develop tomorrow afternoon in the higher terrain of northern New Mexico/southern Colorado and track into the northwestern combined Panhandles. Latest NBM came in up to a few degrees cooler than previous runs. Will opt to issue a Heat Advisory for Palo Duro Canyon as that has the highest confidence of reaching at least 105 degrees, but will hold off on issuing elsewhere for now given uncertainty in where the clouds may linger, and which counties could hit 105 degrees.
- A cold front will approach the Continental Divide on Wednesday, bringing temperatures down east of the Divide Wednesday and Thursday. On Wednesday the ridge will be flattened by a much broader trough dropping south out of Canada. This will usher in cooler temperatures and widespread shower and thunderstorm chances east of the Divide through Wednesday evening. Further ahead, Thursday will be cooler behind the front, especially east of the Divide where highs will likely only reach the 60s and 70s for most locations. Johnson County, in particular, will feel much cooler with highs in the low 60s for most lower elevations (Buffalo's high will be nearly 25 degrees below normal).
1235 AM CDT Wed Aug 7 2024 (Tonight through Wednesday) The combination of subsidence and mid-level ridging will result in inactive weather conditions through Wednesday.
Southerly winds ahead of an advancing cold front will continue to moisten up the low-levels and bring higher dew points into the area, so this won't be a problem when the main band of showers arrives ahead of the cold front this evening. A few showers may linger into Thursday morning across western WI as the cold front moves out of the region.
A similar scenario is on tap for much of Thursday, with a band of better cloud cover approaching the lakeshore by Thursday evening associated with the cold front. - Cool Temperatures For Mid Summer Are On The Way 850mb temperatures this time of year can push into the lower to middle +20C resulting in temperatures in the 90s and above.