Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
18z/1pm surface analysis shows a 988mb low over southern Manitoba with a cold front extending southward into the Plains. Barnes A mostly uneventful work week lies ahead as central Illinois remains under the influence of prevailing upper-level ridging.
(This evening through Monday) Water vapor imagery reveals a trough churning along the East Coast as an upper ridge continues to build into the region. A slight warming trend will kick in today and tomorrow with highs settling into the low to mid 80s. Lows tonight fall back into the low to mid 50s.
1150 AM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025 - Dry weather conditions with cooler mornings will prevail into this new week. Highs today will climb into the low to mid 80s. The Gulf Coast region will remain locked in between synoptic ridging to the west over south TX and cutoff low over the east.
1201 PM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025 - High pressure will keep the bulk of the new week dry and seasonally mild. The strongest H5 heights still occur early in the week, when 588 DM builds overtop our CWA, ridged from the 592 DM centered anticyclone over east TX. The surface circulation is still around the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley anticyclone, so we'll keep the wonderful fetch of northeast to easterlies reinforcing 50s dew points for us as highs top out in the upper 70s to lower 80s; that's about 5-10F above seasonal norms.
Upper trough continues to bring light rain and snow showers to Idaho north of the Snake Basin this morning. The trough is weakening and moving east. Another upper trough is deepening and moving southward along the NW coast and will bring more rain to eastern Oregon and the west central Idaho mountains tonight through Monday morning. The trough will become an upper low off WA this evening and will be just off the OR coast Monday.
952 AM PDT Sun Oct 12 2025 Cooler with night and morning low clouds in the coastal areas and valleys tonight.
1126 AM EDT Sun Oct 12 2025 A low pressure system tracking along the Atlantic coastline will spread light rain into the Piedmont and foothills through tonight before it shifts further north.
215 PM EDT Sun Oct 12 2025 After a lull in rainfall today, rain will move back into the area tonight into Monday as the western side of a coastal low pressure system impacts the area.
754 PM EDT Sun Oct 12 2025 Rain will move back into the area tonight into Monday as the western side of a coastal low pressure system impacts our area.
548 PM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025 - High pressure will keep the bulk of the new week dry and seasonally mild. Blocky upper pattern persists as we sit pretty much directly under a sharp ridge in between deep troughing to the east with two embedded lows, and broad troughing to the west.
655 PM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025 - A strong cold front will race through SW KS Sunday evening with strong northeast winds. - Dramatically cooler with thickening and lowering clouds Monday.
757 PM EDT Sun Oct 12 2025 Broad low pressure along the Mid-Atlantic coast will bring increased rain chances, gusty winds, and high surf through early week. The low will eventually be pushed east by a cold front midweek. Cooler temperatures arrive late week, particularly for the mountains. Model guidance has continued to back off on rainfall amounts for Monday as the northward progression of the low and association precipitation runs into strong high pressure to our north.
642 PM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025 - Cold front continues to push across the area this afternoon.
805 PM EDT Sun Oct 12 2025 Unsettled weather conditions are expected to continue this evening across the eastern half of the forecast area due to an area of low pressure located near Wilmington, North Carolina. Gradual improvement from west to east is expected tonight into Monday as the low moves away from the region and high pressure brings in drier air. High pressure is expected to prevail through the upcoming work week, with dry weather and temperatures within a few degrees of normal. Temperatures were tricky today as locations in the west saw some sunshine and therefore warmer temperatures. Key message(s): - Drying out with sunshine returning and warmer temperatures. The coupled upper trough and coastal low will continue to pull away from the region early Monday, bringing drier air back in the region.
605 PM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025 (This evening through Monday) Water vapor imagery reveals a trough churning along the East Coast as an upper ridge continues to build into the region. A slight warming trend will kick in today and tomorrow with highs settling into the low to mid 80s. Lows tonight fall back into the low to mid 50s.
840 PM EDT Sun Oct 12 2025 A coastal storm brings a few showers over the ridges Monday.
708 PM EDT Sun Oct 12 2025 High pressure will provide dry conditions through the upcoming workweek. Slightly above normal temperatures early in the week will trend a bit cooler for the second half of the week before trending warmer again by this weekend. Elongated midlevel ridging will extend from the Great Lakes SW into the ArkLaTex region, providing dry and seasonably mild conditions for the local area for both the near and short term periods. Monday will be very similar to today, with highs topping out in the lower to mid 70s amidst mostly sunny skies.
The low will then drift offshore by midweek, as dry high pressure builds in from the west and brings above normal temperatures to our region. with cloudiness struggling to developing west of the southern Blue Ridge, locally dense NC mtn valley fog is expected to develop by early Sunday morning. As of 1230 PM Sunday: Quiet weather is expected for the short term, as the coastal low slowly drifts east offshore and warm and dry high pressure builds into the region from the west. As of 1245 PM Sunday: The upper pattern be very amplified at the start of the medium range, with deep trough over the Intermountain West, a ridge over the Mississippi Valley and a digging upper low over New England.
648 PM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025 - Dry weather conditions with cooler mornings will prevail into this new week. High pressure ridging at the surface and aloft will continue to prevail across the area tonight and Monday. High pressure and dry conditions will continue on Monday, with Highs in the mid 80s.
605 PM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025 - A cold front moving through the region will shift southerly winds to the northwest tonight and usher in cooler temperatures.
647 PM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025 - Low humidity, cooler mornings, and warm afternoons through the week. (Tonight through Monday night) The center of an upper level high has drifted to northern Mexico today. The upper ridge will continue to dominate during the short term keeping our weather dry. The low level flow will remain southeasterly and dewpoints will increase.
1036 PM EDT Sun Oct 12 2025 Gradual improvement from west to east is expected tonight into Monday as the coastal low near the North Carolina-South Carolina border moves away from the region and high pressure brings in drier air. High pressure is expected to prevail through the upcoming work week, with dry weather and temperatures within a few degrees of normal. Rain across the eastern Midlands has decreased in intensity but the chance of rain will continue for much of the overnight as the low continues west towards the FA and eventually reverses course and heads back east towards daybreak. Key message(s): - Drying out with sunshine returning and warmer temperatures. The coupled upper trough and coastal low will continue to pull away from the region early Monday, bringing drier air back in the region.
651 PM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025 (Tonight) With abundant sunshine, temperatures have reached the lower 80s in some urban areas.
-A Coastal Flood Statement is in effect for the Lower and Middle Keys. Dew points continue to slowly click down with values in the lower to mid 70s as drier air continues to slowly filter in. Gentle to moderate north to northeasterly breezes expected overnight as the Keys remain in between low pressure off the Mid- Atlantic and high pressure building in across the northern Gulf Coast. High pressure will build across the eastern United States to start the week, leading to freshening mainly northeasterly breezes.
621 PM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025 - Temperatures fall into the low to middle 30s across portions of northwest Nebraska. Frost development is possible for areas near the Pine Ridge tonight into Monday morning.
1223 AM EDT Mon Oct 13 2025 A few light showers are expected over the ridges this morning. Dry and warm conditions are expected Tuesday with a building ridge.
144 AM EDT Mon Oct 13 2025 Rain will move back into the area tonight into Monday as the western side of a coastal low pressure system impacts our area.
351 AM EDT Mon Oct 13 2025 * Periods of rain and drizzle for today and early tonight, mainly across the eastern half of the CWA * A new high pressure area with cooler and dry weather is in store for the rest of the week. One lobe of a double barreled upper low is right overhead this morning. Little rain will fall to the west of the axis of the trough (strung between the two lobes). Warren should end up 5F above normal, while York will be about 10F cooler than normal.
(Tonight through Tuesday) Dry northerly flow will continue as a slow-moving upper-level trough persists to our east, while a ridge expands across the Ark-La-Tex region. Temperatures will continue to trend upward, reaching the low to mid 80s on Monday and perhaps the upper 80s in a few locations on Tuesday.
1254 AM EDT Mon Oct 13 2025 Gradual improvement from west to east is expected today as the coastal low near the North Carolina-South Carolina border moves away from the region and high pressure brings in drier air.
Deep tropical moisture remains over southeast Arizona with an amplifying west coast trough and southwesterly flow aloft for our area. As dewpoints lower and the drier air settles in with the trough moving through the western US, it will really feel like autumn.
Starting tonight, the subtropical moisture gets drawn back north as an early season closed Low off the West Coast approaches the area. Pressure gradient will also increase between the approaching low and a ridge of high pressure over Texas so expect southwesterly wind to pick up over the next couple days, increasing to 15-25 mph with gusts 30-35 mph. As the closed Low approaches on Tuesday the winds aloft change a bit more westerly and begins to draw in some drier air. It weakens as it approaches southern California and hooks northeast onshore with heights warming to 555-565dm at the core but still brings some cooler air to our area as it transits northeast into the Great Basin.
407 AM EDT Mon Oct 13 2025 A low pressure system heads off the mid-Atlantic coast today, then out to sea Tuesday. A dry front then pushes across midweek with cooler temperatures behind it.
350 AM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025 - Cooler today and tomorrow with highs in the dipping into the 60s and increasing rain chances this evening into Tuesday.
Our overall quiet weather pattern will persist into this week with central CONUS upper ridging remaining the dominant feature. Renewed troughing into the Eastern Great Lakes and Northeast US sends a weak cold front through the area later Tuesday into Tuesday night.
Clouds and precip will keep daytime temps on the cooler side across northeast OK, with another very warm day in areas to the south and east similar to recent days.
Upper level and sfc ridging will continue to keep skies clear with plenty of sunshine. Dry, quiet weather along with unseasonably warm temperatures will continue through the first half of the week due to broad ridging both aloft and at the surface.
- Little to no precipitation expected through the work week as high pressure builds into the region. Florida remains underneath an upper-level trough axis as a Nor'Easter moves up the east coast. High pressure will dominate through the week as the low moves up the east coast. As the upper-level flow becomes meridional, this will push the ridge axis east. Eventually, another trough axis and an attendant cold front are expected to approach the area.
This is thanks to our high pressure over the region.
139 AM MDT Mon Oct 13 2025 - Unsettled weather this week 07z surface analysis had ridge over the CWA with clear skies and light winds. Water vapour loop had upper low/trough over the northwest CONUS with southwest flow aloft over the northern Plains. Evolution of the upper trough the main forecast driver this week. Today/Tuesday, upper low drops into the southwest CONUS as perturbed southwest flow impacts the CWA.
917 PM PDT Sun Oct 12 2025 A low pressure system moving southward along the West Coast will bring stronger onshore winds Monday into Tuesday night, along with widespread precipitation from the coast to the mountains Monday night into Tuesday night.
1216 AM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025 - Cold front continues to push across the area this afternoon.
A better set up moves in for the latter portion of the week as a deep trough shifts east into the area.
1220 AM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025 - Temperatures fall into the low to middle 30s across portions of northwest Nebraska. Frost development is possible for areas near the Pine Ridge tonight into Monday morning. - Cooler temperatures are then expected through Tuesday, with highs remaining in the 50s to low 60s.
Satellite imagery depicts the upper level trough moving towards NorCal, bringing increased mid-to high-level clouds with radar showing spotty rainshowers. CAMs shows a line of organized convection activity along the frontal system translating from northwest to southwest through the morning, before shifting eastward later this morning as the center of the low moves over the area. Tonight into Tuesday, showers will gradually be dwindling as the the low moves southward toward central California.
115 AM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025 - High pressure keeps the bulk of the new week dry and seasonally mild. Patchy fog retains its nightly potential under high pressure that presages moclear skies and light/calm winds. The 00Z modeling tonight of the upper high is coming in stronger and nearer with its ridge center than previous nights. These first days of the week will see the warmest temps as the upper high translates practically overhead. The high ultimately shifts east by week's end, as broad troffing to the west drives a system our direction. Otherwise, it's a Visual Flight Rules predominated forecast governed by persistently strong high pressure.
This is continuing strong winds both ahead and behind of an accompanying cold front sweeping west to east across the Dakotas, and eventually into Minnesota. Upper ridge axis builds into the area from southeast to northwest. This will serve to keep cooler air mass behind today's cold front to linger over the region while modifying, keeping temperatures near average. Ensemble guidance suggests entrance region jet dynamics east of the upper ridge axis will help bring a low chance for showers into the Dakotas around Tuesday, favoring more south of Highway 2 corridor. Into mid and late week, the aforementioned longwave trough breaks east into the central CONUS. This will reintroduce warmer than average temperatures along with chance for showers and perhaps thunderstorms.
An upper level ridge looks to remain over the central US through mid week, generally supporting broad subsidence and dry air aloft.
1255 AM EDT Mon Oct 13 2025 High pressure will allow for continued dry conditions with slightly above normal temperatures for the first half of the working week. A dry cold front will move through mid week, providing cooler temperatures for the second half of the week.
Upper troughing ejects across the western Atlantic and Mid- Atlantic states today and upper ridging begins to build over the forecast area in its wake. We maintain deep layer northerly flow through Tuesday before the low to mid level flow turns more northeasterly and easterly by mid-week. With cool, dry air continuing to move across the area we can expect cool overnight lows in the lower to middle 50's and warm afternoon highs in the middle to upper 80's today through Tuesday night.
The lower levels will slowly saturate this morning and additional isolated showers are possible. Highs in the lower to mid 70s look on track, with perhaps the coolest temps in the 60s across far northeast IL.
- Gusty southerly winds 20-30 mph veer northwest behind a passing cold front, diminishing in speed throughout the day. Ascent ahead of and along the system's occluded/cold front is shoving a round of light rain across the west half of the UP as of writing this discussion.
-High pressure continues quiet and dry weather through the remainder of the work week. At the surface, a weak cold front will track across the CWA today with just enough moisture to return shower chances to the Northwoods. Previously mentioned cold front will progress across the region today, returning cloud cover along with some chances of light precip to parts of the CWA today. Pressure gradient force winds from southerly high pressure will continue breezy southwestern flow, gusting to the low/mid teens this afternoon.
(Today and tonight) High pressure will start to redevelop across the State of Texas today.
Attendant cold front across the eastern Dakota into Central Nebraska is expected to build southeast tonight entering northwest Missouri after 03Z Monday, shift southeast of I- 35 after 06Z tonight. Cold front is expected to stall east of I-35 with weak isentropic lift develops after 06Z along and ahead of the front on the 305-310 K surface. Northwest Missouri has a small chance of being clipped by the disturbance on Tuesday, but is dependent on the strength of the upper level ridge re-building north across the center of the country. Slow moving upper trough across the western US much of the week attempts to shift towards the central US late week.
- Warmer Monday with showers returning for Monday night/Tuesday. Upper level trough remains across the PacNW and East Idaho today per satellite imagery. Upper trough re-amplifies along the coast Monday, with upper flow once again turning southerly during the day Monday. Temperatures for Monday night should warm several degrees above freezing under the influence of the increased southerly flow and moisture, and do not anticipate additional Frost or Freeze headlines at this time. We remain in strong southerly flow ahead of the low on Tuesday. We will likely low to mid 60s in warmer spots, especially where we can get downslope winds to aid with any warming and counter increasing clouds/precipitation.
150 AM EDT Mon Oct 13 2025 A few light showers are expected over the ridges this morning. Dry and warm conditions are expected Tuesday with a building ridge.
234 AM EDT Mon Oct 13 2025 A few light showers are expected over the ridges this morning. Dry and warm conditions are expected Tuesday with a building ridge.
1102 PM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025 - A cold front moving through the region will shift southerly winds to the northwest tonight and usher in cooler temperatures.
- Dry weather conditions with cooler mornings will prevail into this new week.
Another dry day in store for Monday as the high pressure aloft continues to dominate the weather. Models indicate that the high pressure will move northeast of the area as a mid level inverted trough approaches the TX coast from the east on Tuesday.
146 AM EDT Mon Oct 13 2025 A coastal low will slowly drift offshore through mid week as dry high pressure builds in across the region.
Today: An upper trough and surface cold front encroaching on the northwestern CWA have resulted in isolated to scattered light showers over the western CWA and isolated showers over central MO, while southeastern areas are dry under the upper ridge. Look for highs to vary from the mid 70s NW to the low 80s SE. Partly to mostly cloudy skies tonight will keep lows a little warmer in the upper 50s to mid 60s. The upper ridge builds back into the area for much of this forecast period, resulting in the mainly focus being late week into the weekend when a system could bring convection and potentially severe storms to the area. This low potential also matches the SPC outlook, which is too low to include a 15% probability but was mentioned in their discussion.
- Cooler mornings and warm afternoons through the week. However, lows should be a touch warmer than yesterday morning with mainly lower 60s expected. Highs are expected to be similar to Sundays with many areas reaching the lower 90s.
203 AM EDT Mon Oct 13 2025 High pressure will extend into the area today and linger into much of the week. At the surface, Low pressure near the Outer Banks of NC this morning will move away as time progresses, while High pressure builds in from the west. High temperatures will range from the lower to middle 70s across the Charleston Tri-County, to the lower 80s along the Altamaha River and vicinity. Lows tonight will range from the mid 50s far inland, to the lower 60s near the coast. Upper level ridging strengthens over the central CONUS by Tuesday, allowing dry conditions to continue across the region.
Tonight, subsidence from upper high pressure will continue to keep skies clear as the surface decouples allowing winds to ease. A few cooler protected valleys could see the low 40s. Monday, the axis of the the positively tilted upper ridge remains stretched from an upper high over southern Texas to Lake Huron, remaining over the CWA. At the surface, the high near Maine drifts just east to New Brunswick. On Tuesday, the upper ridge is expected to expand over the CONUS, and now it's covering more area than earlier guidance. With an upper low over south-central California embedded in a tight upper trough, the western side of the ridge will lift north from Arizona and cover most of the the Plains, Midwest, Great Lakes, and New England before diving south along the East Coast.
342 AM EDT Mon Oct 13 2025 Weak troughing will linger across the area today, followed by a primarily dry cold front late Tuesday.
The low will drop along the Pac NW coast overnight increasing precipitation chances as it passes our latitude on its way south. 25" over the higher terrain. A deepening upper level trough on the Washington coast will produce light rain in eastern Oregon tonight through Monday as it moves southward down the coast and becomes a deep low pressure area.
- Cooler temperatures to start the week before above normal temperatures return. Currently, there is upper-level ridging stretching from the Great Lakes to the Lower Mississippi Valley. Additionally, there is an upper-level trough over the Rockies that is moving into the Northern Plains. At the surface, low pressure is situated over northern North Dakota with a cold front stretching down all the way to northwestern Kansas connecting to an additional low in eastern Colorado. Tonight, the aforementioned cold front will push south/southeast through our area. Cooler temperatures will be in place on Monday given the rain and expansive cloud cover. On Tuesday, an upper-level trough will start to dig over California. This will amplify the upper-level ridge over the Plains/Mississippi Valley as the ridge slowly moves east.
(Tonight through Tuesday night) Heading into the start of our work week we will warm a couple degrees thanks to a ridge building in from the west. This ridge will slowly progress eastward, becoming more centered over our area on Tuesday. Our upper level high pressure and this dry air lead to no rain chances in sight for the short term forecast period.
High temperatures today will be on the cooler side, with highs generally in the 50s today under the overcast skies.
Upper level ridging over coastal Texas will build to the NE over the next couple of days. It will help weaken and push troughing that has been hanging tough along the eastern seaboard more off shore during Tue/Wed. With high pressure aloft and at the surface, dry conditions with continue through the mid week.