Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
(This afternoon through Tuesday Night) Partial cloudiness in play this afternoon with warmer temperatures noted. Still quite dry in the lower levels but we do see some higher dewpoints to the west. Rain amounts should remain on the low side. Instabilities will ramp up across the lower and mid MS valleys.
This high pressure center is expected to move off to the east overnight while a mid/upper level low pressure system digs southeastward into the Desert Southwest. Some temps near 50 deg are possible over parts of Southeast Oklahoma as the high clouds are forecast to reach these locations first.
Showers will be most prominent across northwest Montana and the Idaho panhandle, particularly over the higher terrain.
1231 AM CDT Mon Apr 8 2024 - A slow moving low pressure system will bring rain showers to the region this afternoon through Tuesday.
Satellite-derived composite analysis places a stubborn midlevel ridge docked in the western Caribbean, with associated anticylonic flow shielding most cloud cover north and away from the Florida Keys island chain. Temperatures remain in the lower 70s across the Keys at this early Monday morning hour. For today, the aforementioned ridge should continue to dictate the sensible weather. As the high continues to strengthen, windy conditions will dominate for tonight through Tuesday night. With winds veering to the east to southeast, warm advection will promote temperatures rising back to above normal levels for this period, and dewpoints creeping into the lower to mid 70s.
Temperatures around the area are generally in the mid to upper 30s, with elevated hills and foothills in the around freezing, and the Bighorn/Pryor mountains in the 20s. Given the warmer temperatures, lighter winds, and lighter precipitation forecast for the next 12 to 18 hours, dropped the northern tier of Winter Weather Advisories, and down graded the Winter Storm Warnings for the lower elevations to Winter Weather Advisories where the best accumulating snow potential exists. Again these highlites are for the highest hilltops and foothills locations where impactful snow may impact elevated highway locations. The lower elevations where most populated areas are will see rain or a mix of rain and snow along with mainly wet roadways as temperatures will hover in the mid 30s.
443 AM EDT Mon Apr 8 2024 Mostly dry and progressively warmer temperatures will persist through mid week as high pressure remains in control of the region.
A vort lobe on the south side of the low will continue to rotate across northern Nebraska throughout the day.
126 AM EDT Mon Apr 8 2024 High pressure will prevail into early this week. Temperatures are still on track for the mid to upper 40s inland and the low to mid 50s along the immediate coast. A deep layer ridge will start over the area on Monday, then gradually shift eastward into the Atlantic was a deep upper trough takes shape over the south central U.
with a mean trough over the desert southwest and a broad ridge over the eastern CONUS. This will aid in pumping up the downstream ridge over the Gulf of Mexico and Florida.
346 AM EDT Mon Apr 8 2024 High pressure will slide off the coast today.
The associated cold front stretches from central Iowa into eastern Kansas and will move through the forecast area late tonight. The aforementioned cold front will move through the forecast area overnight into Tuesday as it's associated surface and mid-level low slide northeastward in lockstep. This cold front will usher in a cooler airmass that will keep temperatures near normal through the remainder of the work week. MRM As the mid-level low is lifting northeast out of the Upper Mississippi Valley another trough will slide across the southern US and approach the region. The trough will weaken as it pushes across the forecast area during the second half of the work week. At the surface a low will form across Texas ahead of the mid-level trough Tuesday, with a warm front stretched eastward into the mid- Mississippi River and Ohio River Valleys.
Overview: An upper level low, centered invof southern Nevada at 09 UTC this morning, will dig ESE-SE across the Desert Southwest (tonight). Guidance indicates that the Tri-State area will be situated on the far northern /subsident/ periphery of the aforementioned upper low.
The low- level jet weakens this afternoon so area of showers will diminish greatly later today. The low-level jet strengthens again overnight with isentropic forcing producing a larger area of showers and possibly thunderstorms by early Tuesday morning. Discussion: We will be in southwest flow aloft between the upper ridge to our east and troughing to our west.
Cooler temperatures, elevated north winds and scattered showers are expected today.
627 AM CDT Mon Apr 8 2024 - A slow moving low pressure system continues to bring rain showers to the Northland today and tomorrow.
As it advances east, the northern periphery of the closed low is expected to bring precipitation impacts to the Texas Panhandle.
Rain tapers off Tuesday as upper level ridge builds over the Pacific Northwest.
642 AM EDT Mon Apr 8 2024 The region was between high pressure off the southeast coast and low pressure that stretched from the Great Lakes to the Southern Plains.
655 AM EDT Mon Apr 8 2024 High pressure will slide off the coast today.
304 AM MDT Mon Apr 8 2024 KEY MESSAGES: - Low pressure exiting the region today.
954 AM EDT Mon Apr 8 2024 High pressure will slide off the coast today.
High pressure centered near the Carolina Coasts is responsible for the east winds this morning along the Reef that average 15 to 20 knots. The breezes combined with the dewpoints in the lower 60s lend to a comfortable morning. The forecast calls for breezy easterlies, highs in the lower 80s, and near nil rain chances.
234 AM PDT Mon Apr 8 2024 A trough moving into the Southwestern United States will bring gusty north to northeast winds to the mountains, deserts and the Inland Empire today.
A warming trend is underway as an expansive ridge of high pressure builds into the region.
615 AM CDT Mon Apr 8 2024 (Today through Tuesday) The next mid-level trough of low pressure drops into northwestern Mexico and deepens into Monday night, before swinging into West Texas on Tuesday, maintaining southwesterly 500mb flow across Deep South Texas. A 40kt LLJ sets up along the Western Gulf, increasing southeasterly winds across the lower Texas coast mid morning through this afternoon. As for the cloud cover, it still looks to persist across Deep South Texas through the short term period, with some hope that maybe during the strongest winds in the lower valley early this afternoon, a few breaks could appear.
444 AM CDT Mon Apr 8 2024 - A slow moving low pressure system continues to bring rain showers to the Northland today and tomorrow.
High pressure will bring a drying and warming trend beginning Tuesday and continuing through the remainder of the week.
As for temperatures, look for afternoon highs to stay cool with most locations in the high 50s to low 60s , while overnight lows tonight dip into the low 40s and mid 30s.
Currently west of highway 283 there is a 60 to 70 percent chance that the highs would be greater than 90 degrees.
414 PM EDT Mon Apr 8 2024 High pressure will cross the region tonight through Tuesday.
The upper level low now south of the Great Basin has closed off and will continue to move eastward across Arizona and New Mexico towards West Texas through tomorrow afternoon.
337 PM CDT Mon Apr 8 2024 - Slow moving low pressure will continue to bring light showers to the region tonight into tomorrow.
231 PM MDT Mon Apr 8 2024 Precipitation was winding down across our eastern sections this afternoon as the upper low, now positioned over the eastern Dakotas, shifted slowly eastward. Locations with snowcover may be 5 to 10 degrees cooler overnight.
(This evening through Tuesday) A high pressure to the east over the eastern coast, and a low pressure moving northeast into the Great Lakes will keep an unsettled area of showers and thunderstorms over MS/AL through the short term.
Breezier and warmer this afternoon across the Florida Keys. High pressure initially near the Carolina Coasts will transition into a large subtropical anticyclone over the next few days, setting up camp over the western North Atlantic. Breezy to windy east-southeasterlies will prevail as the high matures.
237 PM EDT Mon Apr 8 2024 - Above average temperatures again Tuesday with highs reaching the lower 70s.
This round will generate in the vicinity of a cold front in north TX.
Gusts to about 30 mph will be likely (about 80% chance) over the higher terrain. A ridge of high pressure will build over the northwestern U.
An upper ridge building in from the west will be accompanied by mostly clear skies today. VFR with high pressure building in aloft over the region.
Return of showers again Tuesday morning and breezy over the higher elevations. The low-level jet will produce breezy conditions across the higher elevations with gusts in excess of 30 mph.
Ahead of the front, dewpoints are in the low to mid 60s with dewpoints in the 40s behind the front.
203 PM EDT Mon Apr 8 2024 High pressure will shift off the coast today, bringing warmer temperatures and increasing moisture through the middle of the week.
However, as spring goes, another storm will bring increasing wind, chances for showers, and cooler temperatures late week into the weekend.
Current readings are in the upper 70s and lower 80s for the most part with some cooler "rain showered-on" sites in the lower 70s. This first big wave will be shifting northward along with our warm front, but exactly how far will be pivotal for new development. Then, the cold front will take a swing at making more heavy weather for us to contend with through the balance of the short term.
935 AM PDT Mon Apr 8 2024 A trough moving into the Southwestern United States will bring gusty north to northeast winds to the mountains, deserts and the Inland Empire today.
The showers and storms seen this morning have since dissipated, and we turn our eyes to the west as additional showers and storms have formed closer to the cold front in western MS. Rain chances will be suppressed to NW AL and south of the TN River through much of the overnight hours, as dense cloud cover helps keep temperatures on the warmer side. Overnight lows will range from the low to upper 50s with breezy southerly winds.
Cooler temperatures and scattered showers are expected today.
While localized heavy rain will be possible across far southeast Oklahoma tonight, the higher QPF amounts are expected to remain to the south, and this should limit the overall threat for flooding. (Tuesday through Monday) An elevated boundary setting up across TX will keep shower and scattered storm chances going through Tuesday, with the highest PoPs remaining south of I-40.
This would/will accelerate the low cloud thinning as they more rapidly lift and scatter with this additional heating, but the solar disc is now shrinking; which is ramping down equally with decreasing insolation. Models continue to show rapid expanding of coverage and eventually intensity as we see the lower to mid 80s.
1244 PM CDT Mon Apr 8 2024 - A slow moving low pressure system continues to bring rain showers to the Northland today and tomorrow.
302 PM EDT Mon Apr 8 2024 As high pressure moves slowly east from the Carolina coast, moisture increases from the south and west through mid week.
156 PM EDT Mon Apr 8 2024 As high pressure moves slowly east from the Carolina coast, moisture increases from the south and west through mid week.
355 PM CDT Mon Apr 8 2024 - Runoff from recent precipitation continues to result in elevated river levels, with river flooding on portions of the Lower Fox and Rock Rivers through at least mid week.
349 PM EDT Mon Apr 8 2024 High pressure will move farther offshore into midweek, bringing warmer temperatures and increasing moisture.
Overview: An upper level low, centered invof southern Nevada at 09 UTC this morning, will dig ESE-SE across the Desert Southwest (tonight). Guidance indicates that the Tri-State area will be situated on the far northern /subsident/ periphery of the aforementioned upper low. The overall pattern is forecast to be controlled by ridging aloft.
246 PM EDT Mon Apr 8 2024 Dry weather and warm temperatures continue through Tuesday as the region remains under high pressure. After a pleasant early April afternoon as the region remains under the influence of high pressure, high clouds will continue to spread across the region.
The main upper low will continue to approach the area on Tuesday with continuing rain chances, especially across the south.
150 PM PDT Mon Apr 8 2024 A trough moving into the Southwestern United States will bring gusty north to northeast winds to the mountains, deserts and the Inland Empire through this evening.
The influx of moisture over Mississippi will shift slowly east through the forecast, bringing the lower CIGS with. /16 (Now through Tuesday) A closed upper low over the Desert Southwest will shift to over the Southern Plains, with an upper ridge along the East Coast building a bit.
The system responsible for recent strong winds has finally shifted north and east with a ridge of high pressure overhead. Another light wind day is anticipated on Tuesday as a mid/upper trough emerges from the Southern Rockies into the Southern Plains. some cooler air will be drawn southward in the wake of the Southern Plains storm system but seasonable values are still anticipated with highs in the mid and upper 60s on Thu. A mid/upper ridge is progged to build into the central CONUS bringing rising heights/increasing thickness and rising temperatures. Aviation concerns are expected to remain on the low side through the next 24 hours.
651 PM CDT Mon Apr 8 2024 - Slow moving low pressure will continue to bring light showers to the region tonight into tomorrow.
Upper level trough and surface cold front along the northwest coast will bring a 30-50 percent chance of rain to our northern zones late tonight and Tuesday morning.
Water vapor shows an upper level low currently centered over the AZ/CA border moving southeastward. The low will move through southern Arizona this evening and tonight and will lead to a slight chance for isolated showers and a thunderstorm or two. HREF members vary some in the coverage of showers, but the highest PoPs are in Santa Cruz County. By Tuesday the low will be in West Texas, but residual moisture will lead to 15-25 percent chance for precip in the White Mountains and the AZ/NM border Tuesday afternoon. With the passage of the low a ridge then builds over the region, which will lead to a warmup for the latter part of the work week.
1028 PM EDT Mon Apr 8 2024 Dry weather and warm temperatures continue through Tuesday as the region remains under high pressure. Previous discussion follows: After a pleasant early April afternoon as the region remains under the influence of high pressure, high clouds will continue to spread across the region.
757 PM EDT Mon Apr 8 2024 As high pressure moves slowly east from the Carolina coast, moisture increases from the south and west through mid week.
744 PM EDT Mon Apr 8 2024 High pressure will cross the region tonight through Tuesday.
Cooler temperatures and scattered showers are expected to continue today.
951 PM EDT Mon Apr 8 2024 As high pressure moves slowly east from the Carolina coast, moisture increases from the south and west through mid week.
Luckily for the Florida Keys, expansive high pressure centered just off the Carolina coast has continued to supply us with this modified continental airmass that we are enjoying this evening. This high has strengthened further over the past 12 hours, and winds along the Reef are around 20 knots currently. At the surface, temperatures are being measured in the lower to mid 70s. For tonight, winds will remain elevated as the aforementioned high pressure continues to advance eastward into the western North Atlantic and gradually strengthen along the way.
No changes to existing forecast as W Atlantic high pressure ridging over the area maintains dry conditions under E-SE flow.
307 PM MDT Mon Apr 8 2024 KEY MESSAGES: - An upper level low continues exiting east of the region.
646 PM EDT Mon Apr 8 2024 - Above average temperatures again Tuesday with highs reaching the lower 70s.
556 PM EDT Mon Apr 8 2024 As high pressure moves slowly east from the Carolina coast, moisture increases from the south and west through mid week.
Warm, summer like weather will build through midweek with a weak storm system on track to bring rain and cooler weather late week into the weekend. High pressure has started to build across the area in earnest. High pressure will continue to build over the next couple of days bringing a distinctly summer like character to the weather.
946 PM EDT Mon Apr 8 2024 High pressure will cross the region tonight through Tuesday.
(Tuesday through Monday) An elevated boundary setting up across TX will keep shower and scattered storm chances going through Tuesday, with the highest PoPs remaining south of I-40.
1228 AM CDT Tue Apr 9 2024 - Slow moving low pressure will continue to bring light showers to the region tonight into tomorrow.
434 AM EDT Tue Apr 9 2024 - Scattered showers and a thunderstorm or two, mainly this morning - Gusty afternoon winds and low RH values today, especially over northeast Lower - Possible widespread measurable rain near the end of the work week Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: A vertically stacked/occluded low pressure system is currently centered over northwest Ontario, with the associated occluded/cold front extending south across Wisconsin and Illinois. It will be cooler tonight behind the front, but above normal readings in the mid- upper 30s are still expected. Pattern Synopsis and Forecast: Midlevel split flow pattern currently over North America with northern branch flow around the 60th parallel continues to keep cooler polar air to the north and open the CONUS to a warmer Pacific mass. Weather starts off the short term period quiet ahead of the second upstream trough.
- Temperatures will continue to trend warmer heading into the midweek.
353 AM CDT Tue Apr 9 2024 - Runoff from recent precipitation continues to result in elevated river levels, with river flooding on portions of the Lower Fox and Rock Rivers through at least mid week.
(Today and tonight) As of 06Z, the cold front extended from south-central Oklahoma and northeastward towards Hughes/Coal Counties. A warm front was draped across north Texas. The quasi-stationary cold front is expected to retreat as a pseudo warm front today and the true warm front remains to our south. While the quasi-stationary boundary remains over our area today, the true warm front is expected to remain south of our area. In fact, daytime high temperatures for extreme western parts of our CWA will be much cooler (near 60 deg F). The center of the closed upper low is prog'd to skirt northern Mexico this morning, reach El Paso by mid-day, and head slowly ENE-ward towards our western north Texas counties tonight.
1230 AM EDT Tue Apr 9 2024 High pressure will cross the region through Tuesday.
Shower and thunderstorm coverage will expand northward again during the afternoon hours in response to another disturbance moving northeastward across southeast Oklahoma and into western Arkansas, ahead of the main upper low to the west. Heavier rains may affect parts of far southeast Oklahoma, but overall, the higher totals should remain safely south of the Red River.
Ridging continues to dominate our weather pattern to start the week.
255 AM EDT Tue Apr 9 2024 A weak warm front is moving through bringing widespread mid and high clouds to the region with a few isolated sprinkles late this afternoon and evening. Tomorrow is looking warm ahead of our next low pressure system that is moving in mid week bringing rain and wind late week. High pressure will bring mostly sunny skies today and temperatures will soar into the 70s this afternoon.
This large scale lift will be supplemented by strong moist isentropic ascent in the lower levels of the atmosphere. Steep lapse rates will contribute to the high levels of elevated instability. The bulk of the precipitation chances from this afternoon onward will be from the strong deformation area within this upper low as it moves from Far West Texas into the Permian Basin.
356 AM EDT Tue Apr 9 2024 High pressure will move farther off the coast over the next couple days, bringing warmer and more humid weather.
GOES-16 composite satellite analysis continues to show a stubborn mid-level ridge centered in the western Caribbean shielding anticyclonically-flowing altostratus decks north of South Florida. Meanwhile, in the low levels, scattered cumuli are advecting in the from the east, following freshened flow generated by strengthening high pressure off the coast of the Carolinas in the extreme western North Atlantic. Temperatures have not dropped much in the easterly flow overnight, generally in the lower to mid 70s across the island chain at this early Tuesday morning hour. The aforementioned mid-level ridge will remain quite dominant, shedding any impending major disturbances generally northeastwards as they approach the Southeast.
- Turning much warmer for the weekend. A mid/upper trough over the Southern Rockies will emerge over the Southern Plains late today keeping precipitation in the forecast for OK and north Texas. A wide range of temperature is anticipated on Wed with precipitation/limited insolation in far southeast KS keeping highs in the lower 60s while those in central KS rise into the low 70s.
A closed upper low digging southward into Texas tonight will result in height rises downstream over Alabama, and shower activity will be suppressed overnight, with only a small chance north of Interstate 20.
Lapse rates of 8 to 9C/KM this afternoon will support an isolated thunderstorm threat, with small hail possible due to the freezing level being only 4kft agl.
1142 PM EDT Mon Apr 8 2024 - Above average temperatures again Tuesday with highs reaching the lower 70s.
343 AM EDT Tue Apr 9 2024 High pressure will cross the region through today.
123 AM EDT Tue Apr 9 2024 As high pressure moves slowly east from the Carolina coast, moisture increases from the south and west through mid week.
322 AM EDT Tue Apr 9 2024 A weak warm front is moving through bringing widespread mid and high clouds to the region with a few isolated sprinkles late this afternoon and evening. Tomorrow is looking warm ahead of our next low pressure system that is moving in mid week bringing rain and wind late week. High pressure will bring mostly sunny skies today and temperatures will soar into the 70s this afternoon.
Temperatures along the Island Chain are in the mid to upper 70s with dew points in the lower to mid 60s.
1016 AM EDT Tue Apr 9 2024 High pressure will cross the region today.
Precipitation will decrease rapidly with sunset as a ridge of high pressure begins to build over western Montana and north central Idaho.
The closed low well to our south will gradually slide eastward into western Texas today. In addition to the mainly dry weather, ridging nosing in from the west will also help to boost high temperatures a few degrees higher than yesterday with partly to mostly sunny skies. Snow accumulations will generally amount to an inch or less with perhaps up to 2 inches in the highest elevations of the Park Range. Highs on Wednesday will be similar to today, maybe a degree or two warmer. In the wake of the weak wave, a large ridge then builds in and brings even warmer temperatures through the end of the week.
530 AM EDT Tue Apr 9 2024 High pressure will cross the region through today.
Another system moves in late week into the weekend, bringing cooler weather and more rain. (Today and tonight) Today kicks off the short stretch of above normal temperatures as the broad upper ridge settles over the West Coast.