Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Storms continue to develop along and north of an outflow boundary that stretches from north-central Missouri, where it intersects with a cold front, southeastward into southwestern Illinois. The cold front will exit the forecast area by 07z Saturday. In the meantime, the upper level trough over the western CONUS will begin to lift out towards the Great Lakes. Then as the low level jet veers over time, the MCS that develops over northern KS will slide east across the area. Still some uncertainty on the exact location of the warm front/convection due to discrepancies among the deterministic as well as ensemble models. Once the complex moves through, there is still some uncertainty on afternoon/evening redevelopment depending on how much the atmosphere can recover, where any outflow boundary sets up and timing of the main cold front.
(Today through Sunday) Key Messages: â¶ Dangerous heat continues today, increases tomorrow With the upper-level ridge continuing to build into South Texas, above-normal temperatures are expected to continue today and increase a couple of degrees tomorrow and expand eastward as subsidence increases.
110 AM EDT Sat May 25 2024 High pressure will bring dry weather through much of Saturday.
While clouds tonight will not clear to bring classic frost development, temperatures will drop into the low to mid 30s. Upper low continues to move slowly off to the north and east this evening, with persistent light precipitation stretched along a trailing axis of Fgen. Temperatures have cooled significantly with near freezing at the International Border and middle 40s in the southern Red River Valley. Temperatures in the Devils Lake basin are in the low to middle 30s, with 40s elsewhere in the forecast area. Upper low continues to rotate over the forecast area and has produced some convection. A few cold core upper low funnels and one confirmed tornado have been confirmed as of this writing, but should see instability decrease rapidly after 22Z and CAMs all have cells diminishing before sunset.
Despite the increasing cloud cover and potential for convection, model solutions remain stubborn in keeping afternoon high temps in the low-mid 90s. For Sunday, models quickly push the aforementioned trough further Into the western Atlantic, with a mid-level ridge building back Across the peninsula.
Although skies are clearing and therefore radiational cooling would traditionally reinforce this fog production, am currently not concerned with this as the cold front is finally sneaking into far southwestern Wisconsin and bringing steady northwesterly winds and dewpoints in the 40s. High pressure will then shift across the state on Sat with temps rebounding into the lower 70s for the afternoon.
Expect dry weather through, at least, Saturday morning as weak mid-level ridging dominates the short-term forecast. The placement of these forcing mechanisms, and generally weak instability locally, will favor areas to our south for the highest severe weather threat. Expect a slight break in active weather for Sunday morning, then attention turns to additional, though weaker, storm development as another mid-level trough moves through Nebraska and Iowa.
Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Vertically stacked low pressure is centered over southeast Manitoba/western Ontario early this morning. Mid-level heights rebound through the remainder of the forecast period with high pressure sliding from the mid-MS Valley into the western Great Lakes this afternoon into tonight. High temperatures several degrees cooler today -- closer to normal for late May. Pattern Synopsis and Forecast: Pressure gradient begins to tighten on Sunday as a low pressure system approaches from the mid Miss Valley. This low pressure system then moves northeast across Lake Michigan and the UP & vicinity consequent of a compact short wave moving from WI to the UP.
Thunderstorm chances increase heading into the afternoon hours as the low pressure system moves east out of Colorado with a warm front advancing northward from the south, with the triple point moving into northwest KS. Temperatures will be cooler with highs only in the upper 60s to low 70s across the Sandhills into north central Nebraska, with low to mid 70s across far southwestern Nebraska.
1258 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024 - Windy conditions this evening with cooler and drier air returning tonight. A cold front has pushed into western WI this afternoon, sparking scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms from Eau Claire to Ladysmith. The gusty winds will continue through mid evening, and then as the low continues northward into southern Canada, winds will ease overnight. A warm front will set up across central MN in the afternoon and a few showers may form along it. Widespread showers and thunderstorms will remain somewhat confined near the low center. Thus, rain totals and PoPs will be heavily dependent on the track of the low itself for Sunday. The lighter totals are carrying the most weight in the ensemble mean, but it illustrates the sensitivity at hour 48 of the low track.
Additionally, a weak passing trough has provided just enough lift to bring drizzle to areas along the coast and in the hills.
The highest confidence for seeing VIS/CIG reductions due to convection will be from MLB southward along the coast from 22-02Z. Weak high pressure extending across Florida from the western Atlantic slides southeast, continuing hot but otherwise favorable boating conditions.
A much warmer, milder week ahead as an upper-level ridge overtakes the region. We can't rule out some pulse thunderstorms across the higher terrain on Sunday as well.
Currently have an upper low lifting into Southern Manitoba with additional upper energy about to move into the Great Basin. As a series of upper impulses approaches the Rockies, lee troughing will strengthen over eastern CO. At the surface, weak high pressure will settle over the area Mon providing slightly above normal temps and plenty of sunshine. However, along the western periphery of the high, rich moisture will start to work back around to the north, increasing storm chances across the High Plains.
455 AM EDT Sat May 25 2024 (Today through Sunday) Very diffluent flow aloft for the short term as the southeast is caught on the periphery of a subtropical ridge and another storm system moving through the Great Plains.
Considerable cloud cover exists to the north of Las Vegas and across much of central and northern Nevada early this morning in association with a broad trough moving through. This trough axis will begin to shift east by this afternoon with the flow aloft turning more westerly.
The slightly better chance for the higher CAPE values will be central SD late this afternoon then down the Missouri River into northeast NE and northwest IA later tonight.
103 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024 (This evening through Saturday) Dryline has slid through much of the Concho Valley and Edwards Plateau early this afternoon, while the cold front has made through much of the Big Country.
For tonight and Sunday, upper heights increase over Alabama as a short wave trough moves through the Midwest states.
209 AM MDT Sat May 25 2024 -Showers/Thunderstorms this weekend -Warmer and drier mid-week with thunderstorms returning for the end of the week. Current surface map places weak trough across western South Dakota. Water vapor imagery shows elongated upper low over southern Canada into the Great Lakes. Inverted trough extends northward into central South Dakota this afternoon. Upper level ridge builds across the Rockies early in the week then shifts across the Plains mid-week.
1113 PM EDT Fri May 24 2024 High pressure will build in from the northwest tonight.
Synoptic overview and current conditions: Water vapor imagery and upper level analysis show a strong upper low over northern Minnesota and another deepening upper trough along the west coast. Surface analysis shows the cold front just about to push southeast out of the area with remaining convection just ahead of the front in our far southeast CWA. Temperatures were ranging from the low 60s to low 70s. Saturday night: Significant severe weather (level 4 of 5) will likely begin to develop Saturday evening initially to our west as the low level jet(55-60kts) really begins to ramp up during the mid to late evening. An upper low in Canada will drop southeast into the Great Lakes region early in the week bringing more of a northwesterly flow aloft to the area.
A deep trough of low pressure approaching the Northern Rockies will bring widespread rain by this afternoon. Total precipitation ranges in the western Montana valleys go from nothing to several hundredths in the lower range, and up to 0. Snow will be confined mostly to the highest peaks of the Clearwaters, Bitterroots, Missions, and Swans. As the trough exits the region Sunday, a drying trend will start, but it will end up being a breezy afternoon across the region.
Meanwhile, an upper level ridge centered over northern Mexico will continue to be the main play for the mid and upper levels. However, with the cap from the upper level ridge, not expecting any shower activity. Some particles that do lower will combine with the high humidity to produce some light visibility restrictions, due to patchy fog/haze with the best chance to see reduced visibility overnight and near sunrise.
High pressure quickly moves overhead tonight, allowing the northwest post-frontal winds to calm. Attention then turns to the next approaching trough Saturday evening, as low pressure deepens to around 990 mb across western Kansas. Strong mass response ahead of this low will advect higher dewpoints quickly north. Some uncertainty in exactly how quick this occurs, but a multi-model average takes the warm front to around Interstate 70 by mid evening. Regardless, given the higher end potential of these storms and their occurrence on a holiday weekend, keeping up to date with the latest forecast information will be important. Lingering moisture behind the low and cool temperatures aloft keep instability around.
1236 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024 (This evening through Saturday) The forecast remains under nearly-zonal mid to upper flow this afternoon, although backing of that flow to southwest will occur later tonight ahead of a short wave trough that will eject across the Colorado Rockies to the central High Plains during the day Saturday. At the surface this afternoon a cooler post-frontal air mass is in place, albeit briefly. At that point the ejecting short wave trough and deep southwesterly flow will manifest as an eastward surging dryline on Saturday, likely getting to the eastern column of counties in the forecast area by mid-afternoon. Enhanced mid level flow south of the mid/upper trough will mix to the surface behind the dryline with windy 20-30 mph conditions on top of high temperatures a good ten degrees or more than this afternoon.
402 AM EDT Sat May 25 2024 High pressure ridges across the area at the surface and aloft through the extended weekend. Highs are expected in the lower 90s near the coast to the mid to pockets of upper 90s inland.
(Saturday through Sunday) Another round of precipitation will be possible by the end of this weekend in otherwise warmer than normal temperatures. This is due to a meandering frontal boundary that will drift back north into the Great Plains as a warm front.
626 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024 (Saturday through Sunday) Another round of precipitation will be possible by the end of this weekend in otherwise warmer than normal temperatures. This is due to a meandering frontal boundary that will drift back north into the Great Plains as a warm front.
304 AM PDT Sat May 25 2024 Cooler today with gusty southwest to west winds in the mountains and deserts. Night and morning coastal low clouds will extend inland across all of the valleys and onto the lower coastal slopes of the mountains with only partial clearing this afternoon.
A s/wv trough will move through the eastern Great Basin today, passing to our north. This leaves us on the dry and windy side of the trough, with a few degrees of cooling as we are brushed by the colder air. this will allow for much less wind, warmer temperatures and continued dry weather.
620 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024 Showers and thunderstorms will continue over the Midsouth today, though weak upper level ridging will limit coverage. The severe weather threat will continue Sunday evening over the remainder of the Midsouth, as storms move to the southeast ahead of an advancing cold front.
A significant severe weather event is possible across the central An amplified mid level trough, currently over the western states will advance east today, with several embedded disturbances moving across the Plains states during peak heating.
328 AM PDT Sat May 25 2024 Still a few echos on radar this morning east of the Cascades as this upper level trough swings through the forecast area. Data suggests temperatures are trending a little cooler today compared to yesterday as some cooler air filters into the forecast area. That will change on Sunday as 500 mb heights continue to rise and high pressure builds over southern Oregon and northern California on Sunday. The temperatures on Sunday are right in line or just a few degrees warmer than normal for this time of year. By Memorial Day upper level heights will begin to fall ahead of the next trough over the Pacific.
In its wake, current satellite and surface obs indicate significant clearing with morning temps already rising into the high 60s to low 70s.
High pressure ridges across the area at the surface and aloft through the extended weekend. Highs are expected in the lower 90s near the coast to the mid to pockets of upper 90s inland.
High pressure remains over the area which will translate to most of the area remaining rain-free and hot. Morning temperatures are already in the low to mid 80's and will top out in the upper 80's to low 90's along the coast and mid to upper 90's over the interior. High pressure will remain in place across the eastern gulf waters with the ridge axis shifting south of the area for the extended weekend.
Breezy to locally windy conditions today and cooler as a weather system passes by to our north. Warmer Sunday and Memorial Day with warmer than normal conditions to close out the month of May. This system will also bring a cooler air mass with highs this afternoon 2 to 7 degrees cooler than yesterday. Sunday: Less wind with highs 3 to 7 degrees warmer than today.
(Today through Sunday) Very diffluent flow aloft for the short term as the southeast is caught on the periphery of a subtropical ridge and another storm system moving through the Great Plains.
Most guidance is on the low end showcasing around a couple hundreds of J/kg. Lack of a strong moisture source region will keep rain totals on the low side with most areas remaining less than 0. Sunday: A low pressure system is projected to moves across the Midwest through southern WI on it's way towards Lake Michigan. There still remains some uncertainty with the Low track which will impact rainfall amounts. Memorial Day and into the midweek: The active pattern looks to continue for Memorial Day as an upper level trough swings out of the Northern Plains and into the Northland.
451 AM MDT Sat May 25 2024 -Showers/Thunderstorms this weekend -Warmer and drier mid-week with thunderstorms returning for the end of the week. Current surface map places weak trough across western South Dakota. Water vapor imagery shows elongated upper low over southern Canada into the Great Lakes. Inverted trough extends northward into central South Dakota this afternoon. Upper level ridge builds across the Rockies early in the week then shifts across the Plains mid-week.
This weekend will be quiet with the gentle southeasterly breezes becoming variable in direction at times, and temperatures will fluctuate from near 90F during the day to the lower 80s overnight. The ridging that has remained dominant over our weather here at home will see a shift in the location of its axis, and this will lead to an increase in chances for showers and thunderstorms.
(Now through Sunday) An upper level ridge remains just to our west, placing the area in a west to northwest flow aloft. The upper ridge will amplify over the area on SUnday in response to a developing trough over the plains. Lows will range from the low to mid 70s.
631 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024 (Today through Sunday) Key Messages: â¶ Dangerous heat continues today, increases tomorrow With the upper-level ridge continuing to build into South Texas, above-normal temperatures are expected to continue today and increase a couple of degrees tomorrow and expand eastward as subsidence increases.
Temperatures across most of the Keys managed to fall into the lower 80s. Since then, temperatures are already rebounding with lower to mid 80s and dew points in the lower 70s. A broad surface anticyclone is maintaining a light southerly wind for now. This comes as no surprise as a low level ridge remains anchored over top of the Florida Keys providing a deep layer of subsidence across the region. During the later half of tomorrow, breezes will clock to a southeasterly to south direction and modestly freshen as the dominant high pressure shifts its position.
The ridge axis of weak, broad high pressure will remain south of the local Atlantic waters, producing light SW-WSW winds this morning that back to SE-ESE at around 10 kts in the afternoon after the sea breeze develops, returning to light SW-WSW late tonight.
Showers and thunderstorms will continue over the Midsouth today, though weak upper level ridging will limit coverage. The severe weather threat will continue Sunday evening over the remainder of the Midsouth, as storms move to the southeast ahead of an advancing cold front.
High temperatures should be in the lower to middle 90s across most of the area both today and Sunday, although a sea breeze cold hold areas right at the coast to the upper 80s if the sea breeze kicks in soon enough.
Trending warmer and drier on Sunday with the exception of some light rain chances continuing across the far north.
Cold front is making progress into eastern upper and ne lower MI this morning. Some post-frontal low-level moisture persists a bit behind the front, with low cigs and even some DZ over the high terrain of nw lower MI. Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Vertically stacked low pressure is centered over southeast Manitoba/western Ontario early this morning. Mid-level heights rebound through the remainder of the forecast period with high pressure sliding from the mid-MS Valley into the western Great Lakes this afternoon into tonight. High temperatures several degrees cooler today -- closer to normal for late May. Pattern Synopsis and Forecast: Pressure gradient begins to tighten on Sunday as a low pressure system approaches from the mid Miss Valley. This low pressure system then moves northeast across Lake Michigan and the UP & vicinity consequent of a compact short wave moving from WI to the UP.
Upper level trough moving through Western Washington today followed by a weak front for Sunday. Upper level trough offshore with upper level ridge well to the east Memorial Day.
Quiet rest of the holiday weekend in store with warmer temperatures and less wind Sunday and Memorial Day.
With a high pressure in place today, weather has been calm and beautiful. Lows tonight are expected to drop down to the low 60s. The cold front should move through tomorrow evening.
Shower activity will continue across the Northern Rockies through this evening into Sunday morning as a Pacific trough moves across the region.
(This evening through Sunday night) An upper level ridge centered over Mexico just west of the Bay of Campeche will continue to be expanded northeast across the Gulf States through Sunday.
230 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024 - Warm front pushes northeastward this afternoon/evening, bringing a chance for showers/storms across western and central Minnesota. A warm front, stretching from central South Dakota towards southern Minnesota, is slowly pushing its way northeastward this afternoon. A broad area of radar reflectivity returns draped over eastern South Dakota and southwestern Minnesota will follow the warm front as it heads into western and central Minnesota later this afternoon/evening. The area of broad troughing ultimately slides east as ridging builds in over the central Plains around mid-week. We could be looking at another active period by the end of the week, with global models hinting at a potentially deep, strengthening trough slicing through the Upper Midwest.
This looks associated with some westward development of the low- level jet behind the strongest portion of the LLJ that should be associated with the stronger, potentially severe line of storms.
Temperatures have warmed up from this morning with current readings in the upper 80s to near 90 degrees with dew points holding in the lower 70s. The Florida Keys will lie on the western periphery of a broad surface anticyclone that will essentially remain in place across the southwestern North Atlantic. Meanwhile, the low level ridge will extend westward from the Atlantic and across the entire Gulf of Mexico. The ridge will wax and wane in strength as an energetic polar jet steam rolls one storm system after the next through the northern half of the U.
These will continue to move east as an upper level trough moves east out of the area. There should be enough moisture and cold air aloft behind the trough for additional showers, and perhaps a weak thunderstorm, this afternoon over our Idaho side.
A significant severe weather event is possible across the central An amplified mid level trough, currently over the western states will advance east today, with several embedded disturbances moving across the Plains states during peak heating. Hot weather will continue for Memorial Day as an upper- level ridge persists over northern Mexico.
CIN is effectively gone and there is now 300 m2/s2 of helicity in the lower 3 KM to work with.
/33/ (Saturday through Sunday) Another round of precipitation will be possible by the end of this weekend in otherwise warmer than normal temperatures. This is due to a meandering frontal boundary that will drift back north into the Great Plains as a warm front.
(Now through Sunday) Latest water vapor imagery shows upper troughing over the Plains, with weak ridging and zonal flow over much of the eastern CONUS. At the surface, high pressure remains anchored over the northeast Gulf, with southerly flow persisting across the local area. Sunday will be another dry and hot day, as the upper ridging amplifies during the day. Rain chances will be on the low side thanks to the subsidence associated with the amplifying ridge. /73 (Sunday night through Saturday) The Memorial Day holiday may be a tad more active, as the ridge begins to flatten and a trough swings into the Mississippi Valley.
Gusts of 30 to 35 mph are already being observed in the high country. A dry, breezy, and slightly cooler day is in store with a trough passage to our north today. A s/wv trough will move through the eastern Great Basin today, passing to our north. This leaves us on the dry and windy side of the trough, with a few degrees of cooling as we are brushed by the colder air. This will allow for much less wind, warmer temperatures and continued dry weather.
Week upper ridging builds in tonight into Sunday resulting in continued dry weather with warmer afternoon temperatures for the interior.
(This evening through Sunday) A Moderate severe risk will remain through much of our Oklahoma CWA to an Enhanced risk across our Texas CWA through midnight with the potential of severe storms rapidly growing to supercells initiating east of an approaching dryline and Pacific-based cold front. Should it develop, it would be fairly fast moving across our CWA and exiting after midnight as the surface boundaries (dryline/cold front) start pushing in from the west.