Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
After some flurries yesterday, we'll start out with a break from precipitation with drier, subsidence in place as a speed max and noted PV anomaly rotates through the Great Lakes in the base of the Ontario long wave trough.
653 AM EST Fri Nov 29 2024 (Today through Saturday) A cold front currently over North-Central Florida will continue to move southward today, and end up pushing through South Florida by tonight. Winds will be out of the south/southwest over South Florida today ahead of the front, allowing for temperatures to again warm up into the low to mid 80s across the area. Highs on Saturday will be cooler then today, ranging from the low 70s across the Lake Okeechobee region to the mid to upper 70s across the rest of the area.
528 AM CST Fri Nov 29 2024 (Today through Saturday) A cooler airmass will sit atop the region following a cold front, keeping our temperatures today, tonight, and Saturday a bit more fall-like. Gusty winds in the Lower Valley and along the coast will subside today. Cloud cover will persist, as well as a return of moisture thanks to an inverted trough to our southeast redirecting moisture our way.
Post-frontal temperatures are forecast to rise into the mid 40s this afternoon under clear skies before dropping back down to below freezing tonight (more on that in the short term below). Winds are forecast to be around 5-10 mph with occasional gusts to around 15 mph, causing it to feel a few degrees cooler despite ample sunshine.
Temperatures are currently in the middle 20s across the area and lows will continue to cool into the lower 20s this morning. Slightly warmer temperatures will advect north into area Saturday but temperatures will be slightly cooler across central Missouri. Highs on Saturday will range from the upper 30s across central Missouri to the lower 50s across far southwestern Missouri Saturday afternoon. Another upper level trough and cold front will then move southeast through the region on Saturday returning northerly winds to the area. Still temperatures will be at and above the freezing mark so overall not expecting much impact, but a dusting of snow mainly on elevated and grassy surface areas across central Missouri will be possible.
Low confidence with any specifics given potential deviations on the track of the lows. Tonight into tomorrow morning is expected to result in the coldest wind chills, with much of western Minnesota dipping below -10F, while eastern Minnesota and western Wisconsin stay a little bit further on the warmer side with areas seeing anywhere between 0 and -10F.
936 AM EST Fri Nov 29 2024 The region will be in between broad low pressure to the northeast and high pressure building into the Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys through the weekend.
(Today through Saturday) Cold front has pushed well south of the CWA this morning. Stratus will continue to stream down from the north through the morning, but the lower clouds will be on the decrease.
High pressure will bring quiet and dry weather to the forecast area with colder temperatures expected through the weekend. Today through Saturday night Quiet and dry weather conditions expected for today as a ridge of high pressure will slowly build across northern and central Nevada. Heading into Saturday, the ridge will be situated over the western U.
546 AM CST Fri Nov 29 2024 (Today) A broad longwave trough in the mid/upper-levels is in place across eastern North America this morning, anchored by a cold core upper low that will remain nearly stationary across James Bay for much of the day. Based on latest satellite data, the western edge of the postfrontal stratus layer will continue to slowly erode from W-to-E this morning, and if winds manage to briefly diminish, a narrow window of opportunity could materialize for the development of patchy fog or freezing fog across the western half of the CWFA (where skies have cleared).
Strong cold air advection is forecast today in the wake of a cold front that passed through yesterday. Clearing skies are expected later today, and low temperatures overnight are forecast to drop into the low to mid 30s. However, if winds stay elevated expect wind chills to be a bit cooler as a result, ranging from the mid 20s to near 30.
526 AM CST Fri Nov 29 2024 Updated at 525 AM CST Fri Nov 29 2024 - Cooler than average high temperatures expected today with another chilly night expected tonight. (Today and tonight) Dry and quiet weather is expected through the short term period as an upper level low spirals across the eastern Canadian provinces and a weak ridge builds to our west. High clouds are expected to roll into the region this afternoon, but won't limit daytime heating with temperatures a few degrees warmer than yesterday in the 50s. Another chilly night is in store, in the upper 20s to mid 30s with warmer lows across the southern South Plains and Rolling Plains where a few mid-level clouds could limit radiational cooling.
542 AM EST Fri Nov 29 2024 The region will be in between broad low pressure to the northeast and high pressure building into the Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys through the weekend.
(Today) A broad longwave trough in the mid/upper-levels is in place across eastern North America this morning, anchored by a cold core upper low that will remain nearly stationary across James Bay for much of the day. Based on latest satellite data, the western edge of the postfrontal stratus layer will continue to slowly erode from W-to-E this morning, and if winds manage to briefly diminish, a narrow window of opportunity could materialize for the development of patchy fog or freezing fog across the western half of the CWFA (where skies have cleared).
Light showers have been moving across the Peninsula this morning as cold front associated with upper disturbance nears the area. The highest chances will be later this morning and into the afternoon as the upper level support and moisture align. At the same time, cooler temperatures begin to dip into the mid to upper 30s across northern portions of the state, and upper 50s south. As a result, overnight lows will continue to drop near freezing temperatures in portions of the Nature Coast with other areas getting into the 40s during this time. An approaching cold front will bring chances for rain showers today.
There will likely be some moderation for tonight, 5 or 10 degrees warmer. It's always interesting to see how the timing of cloud cover affects these spots--will increasing clouds bring some moderation late tonight, or just keep it cooler during the day Saturday? NW flow aloft will be over the area Sat thru Sun.
Temps are mostly in the lower 70s elsewhere along the Keys on this early Friday morning. Surface analysis shows a weak pressure gradient over Florida, ahead of a cold front extending from low pressure in the Gulf of Maine across the western Atlantic and North Florida to the central Gulf of Mexico. Continental high pressure behind the front is centered over the Plains States and extends from the Rockies all the way to the Mid Atlantic. Aloft, a deep closed low is centered near James Bay, anchoring a broad trough over the eastern CONUS. This trough has displaced the subtropical ridge axis south of the Keys at all levels.
The cold front currently progressing across northeast FL will proceed southeastward with a cold area of high pressure building in behind it through today. Cooler afternoon highs, generally in the upper 50s and 60s, will set the stage for the main weather concern tonight. Temperatures will be close to freezing across inland southeast GA and the Suwannee Valley. There will be some light drainage flow overnight with wind chills in the upper 20s across SE GA and Suwannee Valley and in the low to mid 30s elsewhere. Dry weather conditions will continue through the weekend with partly cloudy to mostly clear skies during the day as high pressure conditions dominate the weather pattern.
The upper-pattern this morning is defined by a large scale trough across the eastern CONUS and a cutoff-low in the eastern Pacific centered near 28. The westerly flow out of the low will allow for pieces of this feature to shear out and track across our neck of the woods today resulting in the significant cloud cover. Expect minimum RH today between 20-30 percent in the lower elevations, and 30-40 percent in the mountains.
647 AM EST Fri Nov 29 2024 The region will be in between broad low pressure to the northeast and high pressure building into the Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys through the weekend.
Light showers have been moving across the Peninsula this morning as cold front associated with upper disturbance nears the area. The highest chances will be later this morning and into the afternoon as the upper level support and moisture align. At the same time, cooler temperatures begin to dip into the mid to upper 30s across northern portions of the state, and upper 50s south. As a result, overnight lows will continue to drop near freezing temperatures in portions of the Nature Coast with other areas getting into the 40s during this time. (12Z TAFS) IFR to LIFR conditions will be possible through this morning as cold front moves across the area today. VFR conditions return early on Saturday as drier and cooler air move in. An approaching cold front will bring chances for rain showers today.
610 AM EST Fri Nov 29 2024 Broad high pressure remains over the region through mid week. Key Messages: 1) Dry and below freezing overnight temperatures. Lows by morning should be below freezing across the mountains and near freezing elsewhere. Tonight, expect even colder air as widespread temps drop below freezing throughout the CWA.
946 AM EST Fri Nov 29 2024 Broad high pressure remains over the region through mid week. Key Messages: 1) Dry and below freezing overnight temperatures. Lows by morning should be below freezing across the mountains and near freezing elsewhere. Tonight, expect even colder air as widespread temps drop below freezing throughout the CWA.
500 AM CST Fri Nov 29 2024 (Today through Saturday) Cold high pressure continues to build into our area early this morning. Temperatures will continue to fall there with some low temperatures around freezing around sunrise.
1139 AM CST Fri Nov 29 2024 (Today through Saturday) A cooler airmass will sit atop the region following a cold front, keeping our temperatures today, tonight, and Saturday a bit more fall-like. Gusty winds in the Lower Valley and along the coast will subside today. Cloud cover will persist, as well as a return of moisture thanks to an inverted trough to our southeast redirecting moisture our way.
Broad northwest flow persists across the country with a large upper low across Ontario into Quebec.
Breezy northerly winds will continue down the lower Colorado River Valley, with lighter winds elsewhere through the weekend.
High pressure will bring quiet and dry weather to the forecast area with colder temperatures expected through Saturday with slight warming each day. Skies will be mostly sunny with upper high pressure off to the west. Here are some probabilities of minimum temperatures of 15 degrees or lower for select locations in northern and central Nevada for tonight: Austin - 2% Battle Mountain - 20% Elko - 50% Ely - 40% Eureka - 15% Ruth - 25% Spring Creek - 30% Tonopah - 10% Wells - 40% West Wendover - 20% Upper level ridging will continue for Saturday. This will mean light winds, plenty of sunshine, and slightly warmer temperatures.
Temperatures were nearing maximums in the lower 80s with dewpoints a not-so-appealing lower 70s. The seabreeze has set up once again over the Everglades with winds backing north and even northwest across the lower Keys, with the extent of the seabreeze circulation temporarily making wind conditions variable in the upper Keys.
(Rest of today through Saturday) A deep synoptic scale trough has asserted its dominance over the central and eastern CONUS with its low pressure center located over the northern Great Lakes region. The elongated nature of the trough axis will result in a weaker pressure gradient for the South Florida region than is typical with most troughs, and the attendant cold front will also not be extensively strong. With weaker forcing given the stretched out trough axis and disintegrating cold front, the frontal passage is expected to be a drier one with limited shower activity. This frontal passage will be the start of a period where temperatures begin to fall to cooler levels. Highs today will be in the low to mid 80s and will decrease into the mid to upper 70s for most areas on Saturday.
(This evening through Saturday night) H500 northwesterly flow enhancing large scale subsidence upstream of the main H500 upper level low over the Great Lakes will provide subsidence over the Panhandles. With high temperatures today in the lower 50s, tomorrow will be a few degrees warmer for the Panhandles with high temperatures reaching the mid to upper 50s in some locations for the Texas Panhandle.
Cold front is gradually moving through the area this afternoon, with some showers lingering across the central zones, and some additional showers to the north. These will dissipate later this evening, with cooler and drier air moving into the area as winds shift to the N/NE and increase to 10-15 mph with higher gusts overnight.
- Despite a few cold fronts, no rain is in the forecast and a warming trend awaits near the end of the period. (This afternoon through Saturday night) Fall chill is in the air and conditions are looking fair! A broad upper-level trough with a low centered near the Hudson Bay brings continued northwesterly flow aloft. At the surface, an area of high pressure brings the return of southerly and southeasterly winds over West Texas and Southeastern New Mexico. These along with a few high clouds overnight result in Saturday morning lows a couple of degrees warmer than the previous night, ranging from the mid 30s to the low 40s. Increasing thickness ahead of another lurking system off the coast of California allows highs to rebound near normal, in the low-to-mid 60s.
1033 AM MST Fri Nov 29 2024 Updated at 1032 AM MST Fri Nov 29 2024 - Seasonal temperatures expected today - Warmer this weekend as dry and calm conditions persist A very quiet weather pattern is expected through the forecast period. Today will be the coolest day of the period as high pressure settles into the southern Plains. However, global models are signaling for a cut-off low strengthening off the SoCal/northern Baja coast underneath a Rex block around midweek. The ensembles keep the low too far west for us to see any real impacts, just more high clouds streaming overhead. The warmer conditions result in lower humidities as the cooler airmass shifts to the east.
Snow accumulations of several inches to multiple feet is expected, with the highest totals north and west of Routes 28 and 30.
Dry southwest flow aloft is still in place as a ridge builds over the far western US. Totals in that time are maybe 2 inches at the highest elevations, with less than an inch for a majority of those areas. A ridge builds over the western US, with an upper low moving into the southern CA area. As of writing this, 18 percent of clusters are focused on a wetter system, with the other 82 percent on the continuing of a ridge, with maybe a weak system like the ECMWF is showing.
1126 AM CST Fri Nov 29 2024 (Today through Saturday) Cold high pressure continues to build into our area early this morning. Temperatures will continue to fall there with some low temperatures around freezing around sunrise.
The coldest low-lying valleys may again briefly reach the freezing mark. High pressure continues to slide farther east and away from the region into the day on Saturday.
There will likely be some moderation for tonight, 5 or 10 degrees warmer. It's always interesting to see how the timing of cloud cover affects these spots--will increasing clouds bring some moderation late tonight, or just keep it cooler during the day Saturday? NW flow aloft will be over the area Sat thru Sun. Southerly winds at DEN/APA should weaken and then shift towards the northeast this afternoon as a weak cyclone develops.
Fog development remains the obstacle across the terminals for the TAF period, with dense freezing fog possible, especially at KPDT and KALW.
200 PM CST Fri Nov 29 2024 - Freezing fog possible along I-70 Saturday morning - Mild and dry for days and days All is quiet on the western Kansas front this afternoon. A surge of cooler air/backdoor front will move southward Saturday morning. Some moisture pooling along this boundary may set the stage for some freezing fog across the northern counties in the AM. Forecast skew-t/log-p's do show a thermo profile that is conducive for freezing fog. As such, have added freezing fog in the weather grids up north to account for this possibility. Otherwise, we will see ever so slightly cooler highs for Saturday, but still below normal for this time of year.
1100 AM CST Fri Nov 29 2024 (Today through Saturday) A longwave trough is currently stretched across much of the eastern CONUS, which features a quasi split flow, and a westerly mid- to upper-level jet emanating over the Southeast. A large high pressure system is currently spilling across the Plains and this is associated with a Polar airmass overspreading our region this morning. Saturday will be quiet with high pressure remaining - I've got highs in the 50s with ample sunshine.
228 PM EST Fri Nov 29 2024 Broad high pressure remains over the region through mid week. Can't rule out some brief gusts on Saturday with lee trough developing.
Current water vapor imagery overlaid with 500 mb heights and winds shows longwave troughing across much of the CONUS with strong northwest flow aloft over the region.
(This evening through Saturday Night) A new freeze warning will go into effect tonight, covering areas along and south of I-20 that have yet to hit the freezing mark. Because of this, I wouldn't be surprised at all is some locations in the freeze warning stay above freezing, and will eventually need to be put back in one down the line.
The upper low still lingering well off the coast of SoCal will gradually advect mid-level moisture into our area over the next 36 hours.
A sunny but chilly afternoon is in store for the region as high pressure remains to our west.
1119 AM CST Fri Nov 29 2024 Updated at 1115 AM CST Fri Nov 29 2024 - Cooler than average high temperatures expected today with another chilly night expected tonight. (Today and tonight) Dry and quiet weather is expected through the short term period as an upper level low spirals across the eastern Canadian provinces and a weak ridge builds to our west. High clouds are expected to roll into the region this afternoon, but won't limit daytime heating with temperatures a few degrees warmer than yesterday in the 50s. Another chilly night is in store, in the upper 20s to mid 30s with warmer lows across the southern South Plains and Rolling Plains where a few mid-level clouds could limit radiational cooling.
The low stratus clouds have been slow to clear the area, but we're finally seeing the sunshine across roughly the western half of middle Tennessee. We can definitively say that Nashville still did NOT reach freezing this morning (0. Our upper-level flow will stay out of the northwest, continuously streaming in mostly dry cold fronts.
The overnight cloud cover will be thinning on Saturday as upper level ridging builds overhead.
Cold negative upper height anomaly will persist through this period upstream of general blocking ridge extending south of Greenland.
Northerly winds, ranging from light northwest over the Upper Keys to northeast across the Lower Keys, had settled down into the 6 to 10 knot range after being a little stronger near sunrise.
1237 PM EST Fri Nov 29 2024 Broad high pressure remains over the region through mid week. Can't rule out some brief gusts on Saturday with lee trough developing.
106 PM EST Fri Nov 29 2024 The region will be in between broad low pressure to the northeast and high pressure building into the Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys through the weekend.
Updated at 130 PM MST Fri Nov 29 2024 - Seasonal temperatures expected today - Warmer this weekend as dry and calm conditions persist Today will be the coolest day of the week as we remain on the western edge of a Canadian air mass beneath NW'LY flow aloft thanks to a large trough to our east and a building ridge to our west. This ridge will be the dominating factor for the entire forecast period.
(Tomorrow through Friday) Windy and seasonably warm conditions are on tap for most of Saturday, in advance of a cold front that will begin to move into northern parts of the forecast area mid afternoon.
Temperatures are expected to be slightly cooler, with highs in the lower to upper 50s.
256 PM EST Fri Nov 29 2024 Chilly high pressure will move over the region will linger through the weekend.
There is a small potential for a very brief period of freezing rain before the low-levels cool sufficiently to support only rain or snow.
848 PM EST Fri Nov 29 2024 Chilly high pressure will move over the region will linger through the weekend.
For winds, ridgetop flow does increase a bit tonight, with subsidence and a well defined stable layer evident after around 06z tonight. A couple of gusts in the wind prone areas of the lower foothills will also be possible overnight. With an increase in cloud cover tonight, overnight lows should be a little warmer than the last couple nights, but that's never a guarantee. Tomorrow's highs across the region should be similar or a few degrees warmer than this afternoon's.
926 PM EST Fri Nov 29 2024 Broad high pressure remains over the region through mid week. Temps will dip into the teens and lower 20s across the NC mountains, falling into the lower to mid 20s elsewhere. Gusty winds return on Saturday, mainly across the mountains, but can't entirely rule out some brief gusts east of the mountains with a lee trough expected to develop.
626 PM EST Fri Nov 29 2024 Broad high pressure remains over the region through mid week. Temps will dip into the teens and lower 20s across the NC mountains, falling into the lower to mid 20s elsewhere. Gusty winds return on Saturday, mainly across the mountains, but can't entirely rule out some brief gusts east of the mountains with a lee trough expected to develop.
(Tonight) Key Messages: - A widespread freeze is forecast areawide overnight with lows in the low to upper 20s. A widespread freeze is forecast areawide with lows in the low 20s north to the upper 20s south. Weaker ridging will remain over the Desert Southwest as a northwest flow persist over much of our area.
Dry northwest flow aloft is still in place as a ridge builds over the far western US. Totals in that time are maybe 2 inches at the highest elevations, with less than an inch for a majority of those areas. A ridge builds over the western US, with an upper low moving into the southern CA area. As of writing this, 18 percent of clusters are focused on a wetter system, with the other 82 percent on the continuing of a ridge, with maybe a weak system like the ECMWF is showing.
By daybreak, the entire forecast area will be below freezing marking the first freeze of the Fall. If heading outside tonight or early tomorrow morning, make sure to bundle up as temperatures will be in the lower 20s.
A few showers associated with a cold front, will continue to push through the area. (00Z TAFS) Low ceilings and isolated showers will continue to be a nuisance as the cold front drifts south.
Cold negative upper height anomaly will persist through this period upstream of general blocking ridge extending south of Greenland. This, as the broad trough aloft is now gradually sliding east according to water vapor imagery.
The highest amounts are expected near the US-50 corridor, where there is a 60-70% chance to exceed 1" of snow.
545 PM CST Fri Nov 29 2024 (This evening through Saturday Night) A new freeze warning will go into effect tonight, covering areas along and south of I-20 that have yet to hit the freezing mark. Because of this, I wouldn't be surprised at all is some locations in the freeze warning stay above freezing, and will eventually need to be put back in one down the line.