Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Hi-res model guidance suggests mainly scattered shower and storm activity tomorrow morning into the early afternoon hours, with better coverage tomorrow night along and just ahead of the cold front. AC3 Showers and thunderstorms will spread across the Mid-South tonight into Tuesday ahead of a slow moving cold front. Dry weather returns to the region on Wednesday behind the cold front.
1112 PM CST Mon Mar 4 2024 Scattered thunderstorms have developed along the approaching cold front in an environment with 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE and 30-35 kts of bulk wind shear. Because of diminishing surface based instability and bulk shear, the highest potential for strong to severe weather will last from now through through the next few hours. As thunderstorms become elevated, this threat will transition to large hail Jaja -A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this evening and early overnight as a cold front moves southeast into the area. -After a couple days of record highs, cooler temperatures are expected starting on Tuesday.
High temperatures today are forecast to climb into the lower 80s. Cold front will linger across the ArkLaTex this afternoon into tonight. However, this will be short-lived as the high quickly migrates east bringing a return of southerly winds to the region by Wednesday afternoon.
The dryline was retreating westward, marked by dewpoints rising into the low 50s across the Concho Valley and the Edwards Plateau. Further north, a cold front was moving southward out of Oklahoma. The airmass behind this front is only about 6 deg C cooler.
/16 ************** Previous issued at 341 PM CST *********** Latest water vapor imagery shows a broad trough encompassing much of the eastern CONUS, with a ridge over the Eastern Seaboard. At the surface, high pressure off the southeastern US coast was keeping winds more southeasterly, though moisture continues to filter across the region. The aforementioned trough will slowly move eastward through the day, though make very little eastward progression. The axis of the trough will swing east of the area late Tuesday afternoon, with rain chances tapering off Tuesday night.
1041 PM EST Mon Mar 4 2024 Fair conditions continue into Tuesday morning as weak high pressure slides east, ahead of a low pressure system. As this low swings through, rain is likely Tuesday night and Wednesday as the area of low pressure moves through the area.
(Today and tonight) A closed upper low will slowly migrate from near 40N135W to just offshore from the Central Coast tonight. Given the core of the low looks to remain offshore precipitation amounts should be much more limited for interior portions of the Bay Area and Central Coast where only a few hundredths of an inch are expected.
However as a low pressure system gets closer, the gradient will increase enough for the fog to mix out. This low will move east northeast across the region Tonight. Ahead of the low, a warm front will lift through Today, producing rain showers and embedded thunderstorms. The best chance for showers and storms will come as the low itself crosses area from late afternoon through Tonight.
1040 PM CST Mon Mar 4 2024 (The rest of tonight) Dryline currently pushing through eastern OK this evening, with attendant cold front about to enter NE OK.
315 AM EST Tue Mar 5 2024 - Widespread rain showers with a few rumbles of thunder today as a cold front crosses the region. A cold front will drag gradually southeast across the area from late this morning into early afternoon. A rumble or two of embedded thunder remains possible as well, especially this morning as a pocket of modest instability in advance of the cold front translates northeast through the area. Temperatures in advance of the cold front will remain in the mid 50s to around 60 with some potential of warming to near 65 south of the metro Detroit area before the front passes early to mid afternoon.
1030 PM CST Mon Mar 4 2024 (This evening through Tuesday night) The passage of a cold front this morning has brought a wind shift across the panhandles with north to east winds expected for the rest of today. The gusty winds behind the cold front are already weakening and are fully expected to be light by this evening. Cooler air is slowly drifting into the panhandles leading to a drop of around 10 to 15 degrees across the panhandles. This will leave the highs in the 50s to 60s through Tuesday with the overnight lows down to slightly above to slightly below freezing.
1101 PM MST Mon Mar 4 2024 - Scattered snow showers continue across the high country through the near-term.
1256 AM EST Tue Mar 5 2024 Our weather is turning unsettled as a weak area of low pressure slides up the East Coast and brings rain to eastern Pennsylvania. A dying cold front will dissipate as it moves into western PA Tuesday night.
(Today and tonight) A weak air mass over the central plains and modest westerly flow in in the subtropical flow is retarding the movement of the weak cold front over southeastern Oklahoma. The front is expected to finally exit this area tonight with cooler and drier northeast winds to follow.
1202 AM EST Tue Mar 5 2024 A cold front will slowly drift southeast across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley Tuesday into Tuesday night, leading to chances for showers and a few thunderstorms. For Tuesday into Tuesday night, a cold front will continue to slowly move southeast across our area. Lows will range from the lower 40s northwest to the mid 50s southeast. It will be much cooler with highs ranging from the upper 40s north to near 60 south. With cooler air in place Wednesday night temperatures will drop down into the middle 30s to middle 40s.
1235 AM MST Tue Mar 5 2024 - Cooler temperatures are forecast for much of the upcoming week with near average temperatures today and tomorrow.
1134 PM CST Mon Mar 4 2024 - A slow-moving cold front is expected to pass through central and southeastern Illinois this evening through tomorrow morning.
1123 PM EST Mon Mar 4 2024 Our weather is turning unsettled as a weak area of low pressure slides up the East Coast and brings rain to eastern Pennsylvania. A dying cold front will dissipate as it moves into western PA Tuesday night.
1041 PM CST Mon Mar 4 2024 - Widespread rain showers are forecast to develop late this afternoon into this evening along and behind a strong cold front with scattered thunderstorms to the east of the front. - A strong cold front will move across the region this evening with temperatures dropping from 75 degrees ahead of the front to 45 degrees behind the front.
925 PM MST Mon Mar 4 2024 - Scattered snow showers continue across the high country through the near-term.
Warmer than average temperatures expected to continue into the late week. Temperatures today were kept on the cooler side where chances of precipitation are high with much warmer temperatures across the Finger Lakes and western Twin Tiers where some breaks of sun is possible with the rain and thicker cloud cover staying east. This low along with a slow moving cold front from the west will bring another round of precipitation late tonight into Wednesday. Once again there is very little cold air in place as this low moves north so rain is expected to be the predominant precipitation type. A cold front moves through the region Wednesday night allowing rain showers to continue.
(Today) Early this morning, a cold front is located near a KJLN-KMKO-KMLC line with isolated showers and storms in the vicinity of the boundary across southeast Oklahoma into western Arkansas. While temperatures will be cooler behind the front today, readings will continue to be above normal for this time of year.
(Today through Wednesday) Models depict weak high pressure centered over the E CONUS weakening further today and allowing for a low to develop around the NE GOMEX. But in general, the low pressure system over the GOMEX will develop along the lingering frontal boundary late Tuesday night, and pushing the front into central Florida.
242 AM CST Tue Mar 5 2024 - Cold front moving through the region today will lead to scattered showers and thunderstorms.
1102 PM EST Mon Mar 4 2024 Fair conditions continue into Tuesday morning as weak high pressure slides east, ahead of a low pressure system. As this low swings through, rain is likely Tuesday night and Wednesday as the area of low pressure moves through the area.
(Today and tonight) A cold front will continue to back door into the region through the day today.
A cold front will approach from the northwest bringing another boost of moisture to the region. However, the quiet will be interrupted by another cold front moving towards the area this weekend.
(This afternoon through Tuesday Night) Pretty quiet day so far across the mid state with temperatures into the low to mid 70s. Trough off to our SW will move eastward today and tonight, and increase rain chances overnight and especially into Tuesday. Rainfall amounts have dropped a little, and this first round should bring around a quarter inch of rain on the low end and up to an inch and a half in some spots in the south by sunset on Wednesday. Right now instability will be on the low side, so not expecting any strong to severe storms for Tuesday.
Discussion: We start the period between upper ridging to our east and a broad upper trough to our west. The low level flow direction is favorable for mountain wave enhancement but the strength of the low level jet currently looks too low to trigger a mountain wind advisory.
1107 PM EST Mon Mar 4 2024 After a very mild afternoon, our weather will turn unsettled tonight into Tuesday as a weak area of low pressure slides up the East Coast and brings rain to eastern Pennsylvania.
Overnight lows are forecast to range from the low to upper 50s and even low 60s along the Rio Grande. Another warm day is in store for Wednesday as high temperatures reach the low to upper 80s and low 90s along the Rio Grande.
513 AM CST Tue Mar 5 2024 - Cold front moving through the region today will lead to scattered showers and thunderstorms.
304 AM CST Tue Mar 5 2024 - Cooler today, yet temperatures continue above normal.
545 AM CST Tue Mar 5 2024 - Noticeably cooler today but still above normal.
Broad trough energy over the Pacific NW and inter-mountain west is clipping northern NV which will continue to produce snow showers across much of Humboldt and Elko counties, along with the northern portions of Lander and Eureka counties. Late tonight through Wednesday night the trough to the north of NV along with a cutoff low off the northern CA coast will both slide SE through NV, with mainly light shower activity to both northern and central NV.
This pattern will support warmer temperatures this afternoon, with much of the area breaking into the low 90s. Dense marine fog is anticipated to develop again tonight as warm humid air continues to move across cooler sea water.
515 AM CST Tue Mar 5 2024 (Today) Early this morning, a cold front is located near a KJLN-KMKO-KMLC line with isolated showers and storms in the vicinity of the boundary across southeast Oklahoma into western Arkansas. While temperatures will be cooler behind the front today, readings will continue to be above normal for this time of year.
523 AM CST Tue Mar 5 2024 - Cooler today, yet temperatures continue above normal.
Modest zonal flow persists with broad upper troughing to the north and ridging well to the south and east. Highs to range from the 60s to lower 70s in the lower elevations to the 40s and 50s in the mountains.
628 AM EST Tue Mar 5 2024 Our weather is turning unsettled as a weak area of low pressure slides up the East Coast and brings rain to eastern Pennsylvania. A dying cold front will dissipate as it moves into western PA Tuesday night.
536 AM CST Tue Mar 5 2024 - A slow moving cold front and associated showers/storms will push out of the area later today. Surface analysis early this morning depicts a slow moving cold front stretched from roughly Lexington to Taylorville IL as of 2 am. The cold front will push east of the area this afternoon, putting an end to precipitation. Cooler (yet still warmer than normal) temperatures will be seen today with high temperatures looking to range from the 50s to middle 60s.
324 AM CST Tue Mar 5 2024 - Noticeably cooler today but still above normal.
451 AM CST Tue Mar 5 2024 (Today and tonight) A weak air mass over the central plains and modest westerly flow in in the subtropical flow is retarding the movement of the weak cold front over southeastern Oklahoma. The front is expected to finally exit this area tonight with cooler and drier northeast winds to follow.
224 AM MST Tue Mar 5 2024 Upper level trough will be over Montana today and Wednesday as an upper low currently in Alberta moves across southern Saskatchewan on Wednesday. As the upper low moves from Alberta to Saskatchewan tonight, the front will move to southern Montana tonight and bring a good chance for some light snow tonight and Wednesday.
A disturbance associated with the low pressure out of British Columbia will be moving through north central Idaho into west central and southwest Montana this morning. This feature will causing a burst of light to moderate snowfall across the aforementioned area, but snow accumulations should be less than an inch in the valleys with the higher terrain getting up to 3 inches. Lemhi is expected to receive 1 to 3 inches of snow in the valleys with 2 to 6 inches in the higher terrain. Also west winds gusting up to 35 mph is expected over the higher portions of Highway 28 today.
546 AM EST Tue Mar 5 2024 Our weather is turning unsettled as a weak area of low pressure slides up the East Coast and brings rain to eastern Pennsylvania. A dying cold front will dissipate as it moves into western PA Tuesday night.
507 AM CST Tue Mar 5 2024 (Today and tonight) A cold front will continue to back door into the region through the day today.
Highs this afternoon should climb into the lower 70s to near 80 degrees. High temperatures on Wednesday will be slightly cooler than Tuesday with readings in the mid 60s to mid 70s.
Snowfall has been particularly notable across the Foothills of the Blues as a few slow moving cells put down some decent snowfall, but the majority of this is melting off as ground and air temperatures continue to rise above freezing. Some lingering activity may persist through this afternoon, but it will be light at best, and by tonight look for dry conditions as we enter a clear, ridging pattern through the end of the week.
These clouds are associated with an approaching low pressure system lurking off the coast. The region is in the warm sector of this approaching low pressure system, which definitely promotes increasing clouds. KMUX radar remains in precip mode early this morning as it continues to detect a few passing showers/virga ahead of the approaching low pressure. (Today and tonight) A closed upper low will slowly migrate from near 40N135W to just offshore from the Central Coast tonight. Given the core of the low looks to remain offshore precipitation amounts should be much more limited for interior portions of the Bay Area and Central Coast where only a few hundredths of an inch are expected.
1118 AM CST Tue Mar 5 2024 - Cooler today, yet temperatures continue above normal.
Issued by National Weather Service Tulsa OK 1117 AM CST Tue Mar 5 2024 (Today and tonight) A weak air mass over the central plains and modest westerly flow in in the subtropical flow is retarding the movement of the weak cold front over southeastern Oklahoma. The front is expected to finally exit this area tonight with cooler and drier northeast winds to follow.
This will help keep highs a couple of degrees cooler than today's values, but still above normal for this time of year.
The rain and isolated thunderstorms will increase in coverage again late evening as a more significant upper level disturbance approaches form the southwest and a surface cold front approaches from the northwest. Showers will mostly taper off for the west half before daybreak, but a developing low pressure system along the front will keep showers in place across the east half of our area throughout the night and into Wednesday morning as well. Partial clearing will occur Wednesday night as high pressure takes control.
An area of low pressure was forming over the AR/MS Delta region. The area of low pressure over the Delta will head to the ENE during the course of the evening and overnight while intensifying a little. Given development of the low as it moves to our east, the better rain chances should occur more over our eastern areas in the overnight. With a mild airmass in place, lows tonight should only cool into the low/mid 50s.
Temperatures across the Keys range from near 80 to the lower 80s. The rest of this evening will be business as usual with warm and dry conditions along the western periphery of high pressure in the western North Atlantic. Low pressure currently developing along the northern Gulf coast will slide east towards mainland Florida starting this evening and progressing through the overnight hours. With approach of the low, breezes will freshen and veer to be more out of the southeast to south.
(This evening through Wednesday) A weak cold front continues to work its way southward through West Central Texas through this evening, with light winds generally shifting to the north to northwest, increasing cloud cover, and overnight lows dipping into the 40s across the region.
1115 AM CST Tue Mar 5 2024 - Cold front moving through the region today will lead to scattered showers and thunderstorms.
257 PM CST Tue Mar 5 2024 - A few showers and thunderstorms remain possible in southeast IL this evening near a departing cold front this afternoon.
Lacy (Today) Early this morning, a cold front is located near a KJLN-KMKO-KMLC line with isolated showers and storms in the vicinity of the boundary across southeast Oklahoma into western Arkansas. While temperatures will be cooler behind the front today, readings will continue to be above normal for this time of year.
1103 AM EST Tue Mar 5 2024 The chance for showers and and a few thunderstorms will be in place today and tonight ahead of a cold front. Temperatures drop behind the cold front on Wednesday although the chance for showers lingers.
Low pressure sliding up the East Coast will bring rain to the eastern half of Pennsylvania today. This system will pull away from the area this evening into tonight, as a weakening cold front moves into western PA.
845 AM PST Tue Mar 5 2024 Dry and mild weather today will be followed by increasing chances of rain Wednesday afternoon and evening as a trough approaches from the west.
All of this activity is ahead of a slow moving cold front which extends from southern Illinois through northwest Arkansas and into north central Texas.
257 PM CST Tue Mar 5 2024 - A few showers and thunderstorms remain possible in southeast IL this evening near a departing cold front.
(This afternoon through Wednesday) An emerging severe weather threat will unfold over the next day or so with a developing area of low pressure moving across the southeastern United States. A moisture boundary draped over northern portions of southern Florida, namely the Lake Okeechobee region, may serve as the focus for a developing warm front later today into tonight.
High pressure in the western North Atlantic is promoting gentle east to southeasterly breezes along the reef. Meanwhile, an area of low pressure will continue to form off the northern Gulf coast. From synopsis, the western periphery of high pressure located over the western North Atlantic will continue to result in light to gentle east to southeast breezes for the rest of today and tonight with occasional moderate breezes. Tonight into Wednesday, low pressure is expected to form and move east along the North Gulf Coast.
This low has weakened and shifted south this afternoon, which should allow the front to finally exit the forecast area to the southeast this evening. Zonal flow aloft gradually transitions to southwest flow during the day as a longwave trough/ upper low enters SW CONUS.
216 PM CST Tue Mar 5 2024 - Cold front moves through this evening with additional showers and thunderstorms.
1055 AM CST Tue Mar 5 2024 - A slow moving cold front and associated showers/storms will push out of the area later today. A cold front was stretched from approximately St. 37 Surface analysis early this morning depicts a slow moving cold front stretched from roughly Lexington to Taylorville IL as of 2 am. The cold front will push east of the area this afternoon, putting an end to precipitation. Cooler (yet still warmer than normal) temperatures will be seen today with high temperatures looking to range from the 50s to middle 60s.
1135 AM CST Tue Mar 5 2024 - Noticeably cooler today but still above normal.
(This evening through Wednesday) The weak backdoor cold front moving east to west through our area today will finish its trek across our area to points west this evening under zonal flow aloft. Highs tomorrow will be slightly cooler than today as dewpoints increase slightly under veering H85 from the east tonight to the south by early tomorrow morning.
355 PM EST Tue Mar 5 2024 Showers with embedded thunderstorms will be observed tonight ahead of a slow moving cold front. Temperatures drop behind the cold front on Wednesday although the chance for showers lingers.
Did however correct diurnal hourly temps/dewpoints as values were running much cooler than fcst numbers. High temperatures today are forecast to climb into the lower 80s. Cold front will linger across the ArkLaTex this afternoon into tonight. However, this will be short-lived as the high quickly migrates east bringing a return of southerly winds to the region by Wednesday afternoon.
Due to the location and movement of the low, easterly to southeasterly winds will cross perpendicular to the mountains, which may delay onset of precipitation in the foothills. Tomorrow, temperatures cooler as rain moves out with time into Wednesday and cloud cover sticks around. Winds across the mountains will subside as the direction changes out of the north following the lows passage.
Despite the northwesterly flow tomorrow, 1000-850mb thicknesses suggest there won't be much of a change in the airmass, and highs in the lower to mid 70s are expected.
Winds should otherwise continue to trend downward going through the mid to late afternoon hours in the wake of the departing low pressure system.
1119 AM CST Tue Mar 5 2024 (Today and tonight) A cold front will continue to back door into the region through the day today.
Later tonight and early tomorrow morning, our next low pressure system will begin to track across the area. The upper level trough is more pronounced than the trough that brought us the snow today, however it is just as progressive, very quickly moving through the area. Following this system, we are expected to head into a drier, warmer pattern, as an upper level ridge across the western CONUS begins to build east into the Plains.
(This afternoon through Wednesday) The main weather maker impacting the Bay Area and Central Coast through the short term will be an approaching low pressure system. Per latest water vapor imagery one can see the low digging approximately 400 miles west of San Francisco. Give the current position of the low the Bay Area is square in the middle of the warm sector. Precip chances will increase across the entire forecast tonight into Wednesday as the low pressure inches toward the coast. Latest guidance continues to show the low kisses the coast, but never really moves inland before moving southward during the day Wednesday.
Due to the location and movement of the low, easterly to southeasterly winds will cross perpendicular to the mountains, which may delay onset of precipitation in the foothills. Tomorrow, temperatures cooler as rain moves out with time into Wednesday and cloud cover lingers. Winds across the mountains will subside as the direction changes out of the north following the lows passage.