Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Showers have been waning with the loss of heating after sunset, as as the upper trough continues to move east of the area. Drier midlevel air will build in behind the trough, but low level moisture will likely result in low clouds and fog increasing as the boundary layer cools. Drier and warmer conditions return for Thursday afternoon. Discussion: Currently, an upper trough moving across the southern Appalachians is producing scattered showers and possibly a thunderstorm. For Thursday, upper trough builds across the region with the airmass drying out.
Dry conditions are expected through tonight, with cloud cover increasing and low temps dropping into the low 60s across SE OK and SW AR and mid to upper 60s elsewhere.
623 PM CDT Wed May 15 2024 (This evening through Thursday) Water vapor imagery currently shows the upper level trough and associated low over the Baja Peninsula this afternoon. This trough is expected to track into the northern Texas Panhandle tomorrow afternoon. Ahead of the upper level trough, perturbations in the flow aloft will help with thunderstorm development over the region this afternoon and evening. As the upper level trough tracks into the northern Texas Panhandle tomorrow, a better source of lift will eject over the area as the exit region of a 110kt 250mb jet clips the southern portion of the FA. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to continue Thursday as the upper level trough and associated low move over the northern Texas Panhandle.
Issued 408 PM CDT Wed May 15 2024 Tonight through Thursday night: High pressure will persist through tonight promoting dry conditions. High clouds will move in overnight as a warm front approaches from the east. Low temperatures will drop into the low 50s west to upper 40s east.
The pre-frontal trough has advanced a bit farther south a bit faster than expected, with the only remaining showers currently positioned over southwest Florida and the adjacent gulf waters.
1031 PM EDT Wed May 15 2024 High pressure centered over Hudson Bay will nose southward across our region through Thursday night.
(Today and tonight) High pressure aloft remains the predominant weather feature over the northeast Pacific as weak troughing prevails across the Desert Southwest. We remain on the eastern periphery of the ridge, with minimal influence so far. Expect the upper ridge location to remain fairly similar for the remainder of the short term forecast period with little overall change. It's possible that the marine layer may compress a little given the nearby ridge, but so far it's remained fairly consistent in depth. Highs today will remain seasonally cool and range from the upper 50s along the coast to the lower-mid 80s inland.
(Today and tonight) Upper level ridging and deep-layer light northwesterly flow will continue a slight drying trend in which we can expect clear to mostly clear skies today. The high temperatures for today will be in the upper 80s to low 90s, and the overnight lows will be in the upper 60s.
438 AM EDT Thu May 16 2024 Warmer today with a few isolated afternoon rain showers but most will stay dry.
419 AM EDT Thu May 16 2024 Dry conditions and seasonable temperatures expected today as high pressure transitions across the region. After any fog burns off by mid-morning, increasing subsidence behind departing low pressure will yield dry conditions, relatively light wind, and a bump up in daytime highs a couple degrees from Wednesday's observed values.
Current temperatures are in the lower 80s with disgusting dewpoints in the upper 70s. Heat index values will rise into the 100s once again during the hottest part of the afternoon with highs in the lower 90s and dewpoints in the upper 70s. Low temperatures will once again be in the lower 80s.
WV imagery indicates an upper level trough of low pressure transitioning east through the Northern Plains. Meanwhile, a closed upper low is situated across southern Arizona. However, there is a very minimal chance (10%) for light rain across extreme southern portions of southwest/south central Kansas later this afternoon and evening as a secondary upper level trough in the Desert Southwest dislodges eastward through west Texas into southern Oklahoma.
1227 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024 (This evening through Thursday) Water vapor imagery currently shows the upper level trough and associated low over the Baja Peninsula this afternoon. This trough is expected to track into the northern Texas Panhandle tomorrow afternoon. Ahead of the upper level trough, perturbations in the flow aloft will help with thunderstorm development over the region this afternoon and evening. As the upper level trough tracks into the northern Texas Panhandle tomorrow, a better source of lift will eject over the area as the exit region of a 110kt 250mb jet clips the southern portion of the FA. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to continue Thursday as the upper level trough and associated low move over the northern Texas Panhandle.
109 AM EDT Thu May 16 2024 As a cold front passes through the forecasting region, temperatures in the FL Panhandle, AL, and GA will turn relatively cooler.
Highs tomorrow will once again be in the low 60's near the coast, then into the 70's and 80's the farther you go inland during the afternoon. It will also limit the extent of the marine layer, keeping more inland areas in the sun and the warmer continental air mass.
354 AM EDT Thu May 16 2024 Dry conditions and seasonable temperatures expected today as high pressure transitions across the region. _____________________________________________________________ Increasing subsidence today behind departing low pressure will yield dry conditions, relatively light wind, and a bump up in daytime highs a couple degrees from Wednesday's observed values.
354 AM EDT Thu May 16 2024 Weak high pressure will build over the region today and tonight.
Thursday, high pressure moves across the southeast US with dry weather and mid level flow shifting from the northwest in the morning to the southwest by the evening.
228 AM EDT Thu May 16 2024 A cold front will sweep across ENC tonight with high pressure building in behind it, keeping Thursday dry. Another low pressure system impacts us this weekend. Lows this morning will remain mild with ample cloud cover, in the low to mid 60s. A nice day is in store as we settle into the post- frontal air mass and upper ridging builds in.
(Today and tonight) A mid/upper level trough over the Four Corners early this morning will move eastward across New Mexico today and across the Panhandle- South Plains region tonight, becoming more positively-tilted as it does so. No surface focus is expected to concentrate convection in any particular area as a cold front will have shifted to the south of the forecast area by that time.
120 AM EDT Thu May 16 2024 Exiting low pressure and an upper level trough will give way to building high pressure overnight and Thursday, bringing a period of dry weather.
Temperatures in the low 90s have now dropped into the upper 70s with light east to east-southeast winds. Wind direction is set to turn to the south overnight ahead of developing low pressure in north central Texas. Two features acting to funnel moisture directly over east Texas and southwest Louisiana: high pressure sliding towards Alabama and low pressure moving into east Texas. Warm front is already sitting across our coastline, as can be seen from dewpoints in the upper 60s already nosing into Beaumont and Lake Charles.
324 AM EDT Thu May 16 2024 High pressure centered over Hudson Bay will nose southward across our region through Thursday night.
1226 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024 - Precipitation and clouds will depart from west to east this evening, making way for warmer temps and less clouds on Thursday.
Weak area of high pressure was centered across eastern Missouri early this morning, with a cold front just off to our west across northwest Iowa and southeast Nebraska. Tonight, another round of weak high pressure will bring quiet weather to the area. A stretch of quiet weather is expected during this period as mid- level ridging builds over the Midwest and Great Lakes.
937 PM PDT Wed May 15 2024 Showers and thunderstorms from this afternoon over the San Bernardino Mountains, the Apple and Lucerne Valleys have now shifted east towards the lower Colorado River Valley and are unlikely to drift west again tonight.
- Drier and warmer conditions move in tomorrow with temperatures running around 5-10 degrees above normal. An area of channelized vorticity extends from the trough over the Northern Plains to the upper low moving through the 4 Corners. forcing a transitory ridge across our CWA Friday for a warmer and drier forecast across the board. The upper level trough, centered over southern Saskatchewan, will continue to push into the Northern Rockies on Friday night, shifting flow aloft across the forecast area to the west.
Weaker high pressure will support a gradually cooling trend and only a very weak marine inversion that will most likely mix out each afternoon. The trough over the Pacific Northwest will continue to deepen through the weekend, allowing for interior tempertures to drop below average.
A high pressure ridge will remain in place today with offshore northeasterly winds. Then, tonight into Friday, a weak trough will move inland just north of the area. Otherwise, expect slightly cooler temperatures (closer to seasonal averages) across the area on Friday. As the trough shifts eastward late Friday, breezy to gusty afternoon northerly winds are expected to develop. The thermal trough pattern weakens some today and gales will ease.
Warmer air moving in the region ahead of this system will allow highs to increase into the mid 70s to low/mid 80s Friday into the weekend.
712 AM EDT Thu May 16 2024 High pressure centered over Hudson Bay will nose southward across our region today.
924 AM EDT Thu May 16 2024 Upper ridging will provide a brief break in the unsettled conditions today.
A poorly organized cold front will bring more coverage area to showers for the eastern Great Lakes region tomorrow and tomorrow night, with a few rumbles of thunder also possible.
924 AM EDT Thu May 16 2024 Warmer today with a few isolated afternoon rain showers but most will stay dry. Unsettled conditions return later in the day Friday as another area of low pressure moves in from the west. Temperatures will be in the low to mid 70s west of I-81, with mid to upper 60s east of I-81 thanks to increased cloud cover. With ridging building in, mostly sunny skies will burn off the fog by around 10 am. Lightning is unlikely as the parcel heights dont get much above freezing.
- Cooler temperatures are expected over the weekend. WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Low pressure over western Canada will drift into the Canadian prairies over the next few days.
Though MUCAPEs reach around 1000 J/kg, shear is forecast to be on the low side this afternoon/evening except perhaps locally south of I-70 so severe weather probabilities are low. Model forecasts have trended a bit southward with the low track for Friday, and portions of the ILX CWA receiving precip Friday may be limited.
A jet streak nosing northeastward from central Texas today will accompany one of these waves rounding the base of the trough, lifting a warm front up from the central Gulf Coast through tonight. Strong westerly deep-layer shear and the lifting warm front along the Gulf Coast should facilitate a more eastward bend to the complex's movement overnight, which will result in the current advertised Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms across southwestern and southern portions of our forecast area.
Late day thunderstorms with cold front could bring some locally strong wind gusts. Current surface map places weak trough across the western Dakotas. For Friday, stronger upper trough moves through the Northern Plains. Low level thermal ridge peaks, with highs reaching the upper 70s to upper 80s. Better chance of thunderstorms comes with increasing mid level forcing and cold frontal passage. 3-5mb/3hr pressure rises will bring a period of gusty northwest winds with the cold front.
645 AM EDT Thu May 16 2024 Upper ridging will provide a brief break in the unsettled conditions today.
642 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024 (Today and tonight) A mid/upper level trough over the Four Corners early this morning will move eastward across New Mexico today and across the Panhandle- South Plains region tonight, becoming more positively-tilted as it does so. No surface focus is expected to concentrate convection in any particular area as a cold front will have shifted to the south of the forecast area by that time.
Mid and high clouds have also moved into the region, which has held overnight temps several degrees warmer than the previous night. For today, flow aloft will remain southwesterly in response to a closed trough shifting eastward across the SW CONUS into the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles. I think we may see a break in activity during the morning hours Friday, before more convection is expected to develop as the trough and associated cold front move into the region.
629 AM EDT Thu May 16 2024 (Today and tonight) Upper level ridging and deep-layer light northwesterly flow will continue a slight drying trend in which we can expect clear to mostly clear skies today. The high temperatures for today will be in the upper 80s to low 90s, and the overnight lows will be in the upper 60s.
521 AM EDT Thu May 16 2024 High pressure centered over Hudson Bay will nose southward across our region through tonight.
- Much warmer and drier Friday and through this weekend, with spottier precipitation chances confined to the high country.
706 AM EDT Thu May 16 2024 Dry conditions and seasonable temperatures expected today as high pressure transitions across the region. The rest of the day will be characterized by generally dry weather, a mix of scattered to broken cumulus, and temperature rising to around 5 degrees above normal as an upper level ridge passes. The other item of note is a slight increase potential for low probability showers and thunderstorms this afternoon along the higher terrain. Hi-res models suggest there may be enough destabilization with heating plus weak terrain convergence to promote the necessary lift under the ridge axis for such development. ______________________________________________________________ A weak trough is progged to push across Michigan and SW Ontario on Friday, giving a glancing blow to the forecast area. KEY MESSAGES: - An upper trough will maintain unsettled weather through the weekend.
645 AM EDT Thu May 16 2024 Weak high pressure will build over the region today and tonight.
655 AM EDT Thu May 16 2024 Warmer today with a few isolated afternoon rain showers but most will stay dry. Unsettled conditions return later in the day Friday as another area of low pressure moves in from the west. With ridging building in, mostly sunny skies will burn off the fog by around 10 am. Lightning is unlikely as the parcel heights dont get much above freezing.
Warmer and drier weather looks to return Friday through the weekend, with winds gradually increasing each afternoon. The trough that brought scattered showers and thunderstorms yesterday will continue to push eastward into New Mexico today. An area of high pressure will begin to build over Arizona on Friday, bringing warmer temperatures and drier conditions. This ridge will gradually be weakened by a trough pushing down from the Northwest. As this low swings southward, pressure gradients will tighten across northern Arizona.
Expect lower to mid 70s to the south, with cooler temperatures at the coast. A surface trof and approaching upper level disturbance along with diurnal heating will support a chance of showers north, slight chance Downeast, Friday.
Friday morning, a trough moves in from the southwest of our area.
533 AM EDT Thu May 16 2024 Dry conditions and seasonable temperatures expected today as high pressure transitions across the region.
A trough to move over the region today and deepen over central Idaho and western Montana by Friday. The ridge over us will begin to flatten this afternoon. Showers will develop across the entire region during the day Friday as the cold front moves through.
The deep, mean- layer ridging centered over Panama is well to the south of its normal position. The low-level ridge axis extends west across Cuba. The forecast calls for high temperatures in the lower 90s this afternoon, well above normal (upper 80s) for this time of year. Heat indices will peak in the high 100s, so plan accordingly if working or playing outside. A weak frontal boundary to the north of the Florida Keys interacting with an area of high pressure in the western Atlantic will result in a somewhat chaotic wind forecast through the weekend.
South of the cold front and east of the dryline will see favorable environmental conditions for severe storms to develop. North of the cold front, large hail will be the main threat with any storms that become severe.
and Friday Showers and elevated thunderstorms are expected in central and northcentral Wisconsin this morning, and in east central and northeast Wisconsin during the early to mid afternoon hours ahead of a northeastward moving warm front. Models do show dewpoints increasing to the low 50s, and CAPE of 400 to 700 J/kg with 30 to 40 knots of shear. Friday should be sunny and warm as winds become southwest and 850mb temperatures climb into the low teens. High temperatures should reach the 70s, except cooler near the Lake Michigan shore.
1039 AM EDT Thu May 16 2024 Dry conditions and seasonable temperatures expected today as high pressure transitions across the region. The rest of the day will be characterized by generally dry weather, a mix of scattered to broken cumulus, and temperature rising to around 5 degrees above normal as an upper level ridge passes. The other item of note is a slight increase potential for low probability showers and thunderstorms this afternoon along the higher terrain. Hi-res models suggest there may be enough destabilization with heating plus weak terrain convergence to promote the necessary lift under the ridge axis for such development. ______________________________________________________________ A weak trough is progged to push across Michigan and SW Ontario on Friday, giving a glancing blow to the forecast area. KEY MESSAGES: - An upper trough will maintain unsettled weather through the weekend.
951 AM EDT Thu May 16 2024 Brief high pressure brings a dry day today. Good solar insolation combined with a slight downslope component to the flow across parts of the Piedmont and Upstate will allow highs to surge into the lower to mid 80s across most of the region. Nevertheless, sufficient moisture is expected to remain to allow for some ridge top cumulus development this afternoon. A few of these could evolve into shallow showers or sprinkle-producers, so spotty slight chance PoPs are advertised in and near the favored convective initiation areas near the Blue Ridge escarpment.
With upper trough sliding in and the potential for some sunshine as clearing is noted behind MCS per satellite data, you can't rule out spotty showers and storms.
246 PM MDT Thu May 16 2024 - Warmer and breezy conditions expected through the weekend.
High temperatures are in the lower to the mid 90s, and combined with dewpoints in the upper 70s, lends to heat indices in the 100s. Yesterday at this time there were a few showers on the eastern end of the Lower Keys.
Another area of more concentrated precipitation will occur across the Ozarks into the OH valley along an elongated trough/shear zone. Overnight lows should be in the lower to middle 60s.
Late day thunderstorms with cold front could bring some locally strong wind gusts. Water vapor shows upper low over southern BC with flat ridge extending from the Pac NW through the Northern Plains. At the surface, weak trof covers the western Dakotas. Low level thermal ridge peaks on Friday for very warm temps, close to 90 in some areas east of the Black Hills. More significant short wave crosses the Northern Rockies in the afternoon and Northern Plains overnight, driving a Pacific cold front through the area.
A cold front will also continue to slowly sag southeast, but remain northwest of the CWA through tomorrow night. These two features along with a mid/upper level trough moving over the region and outflow left over from tonight's thunderstorms well north of the BRO CWA will give us a chance of seeing thunderstorms Friday. Overnight lows will remain warm and muggy, with lows in the 70s, with areas along the cost and a few spots in the Valley hanging in the low 80s.
356 PM EDT Thu May 16 2024 Quiet overnight as high pressure drifts offshore.
144 PM EDT Thu May 16 2024 Upper ridging will keep conditions dry through tonight.
One last round of scattered showers/storms are possible Friday afternoon as the upper level trough finally progresses eastward.
- Dry and Mild Weekend High pressure moves into the region resulting in dry weather this weekend.
Rain and storm chances will return tonight as upper ridging moves east and is replaced with southwesterly flow. There should be a break in the showers and storms in the morning with a chance of more showers of storms in the afternoon and into the overnight hours as a broad trough moves toward the area.
There is weak high pressure over southeast Idaho with zonal flow aloft. There is a a trough with a dry slot over the Pacific ocean just off the Washington coast. This trough is associated with an Upper Level Low over central British Columbia. Temperatures are in the low to mid 70s across our lower elevations, about 4 to 8 degree above normal. There is a 60 to 80 percent chance according to the NBM model for sustained winds of 40 mph Friday afternoon for areas in the high wind warning.
149 PM EDT Thu May 16 2024 Warmer today with a few isolated afternoon rain showers but most will stay dry. Unsettled conditions return later in the day Friday as another area of low pressure moves in from the west. Temperatures will be in the low to mid 70s west of I-81, with mid to upper 60s east of I-81 thanks to increased cloud cover. With ridging building in, mostly sunny skies will burn off the fog by around 10 am. Lightning is unlikely as the parcel heights dont get much above freezing.
Arthur Upper level pattern for the next few days has a trof sitting over SW Canada that swings a few disturbances through the area, and a period of stronger jet dynamics Friday afternoon into Friday night. A couple of waves of QG forcing moving through the area in concert with H7 Frontogenesis dropping in from the northwest and a surface cold front reflected at the surface will be the impetus for shower/thunderstorm development and will help to push precipitation persistence and amounts higher than the H5 pattern itself would suggest.
(This evening through Friday Night) An upper-level trough continues to pivot eastward from southern NM into western TX with increasing SW flow aloft and large scale ascent farther east across the Ark-La-Tex. This low-end severe potential will persist through the remainder of this afternoon across Deep East TX and adjacent parts of western LA but should begin to wane shortly thereafter as the higher instability axis shifts farther south. In the watch area, additional 1-3 inch amounts will be possible through Friday morning with only light rain expected thereafter as the primary trough axis shifts east into the Southern Plains. Even with cloud cover persisting into Friday afternoon, high temperatures will generally top out in the the lower 80s while overnight lows will range through the 60s both tonight and Friday night with lingering convection still possible.
This is indicative of an atmosphere that does not have a forcing mechanism in the lower levels such as tonight. Increased low level moisture and incoming clouds from the west will limit low temperatures to the lower 60s.
233 PM MDT Thu May 16 2024 - Much warmer and drier Friday.
Current water vapor imagery shows that there is an upper level trough north of the Mid-Mississippi River Valley that is helping keep the region in southwesterly flow aloft. Temperatures on Friday will be in the 70s, with the highest temperatures across the northern portions of the CWA where cloud cover will be limited.