Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1221 AM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025 Another sultry day is underway acrs the FA w/ local sfc obs indicating area temps in the low to mid 90s, and dewpoint temps in the low to mid 70s, w/ heat index values in excess of 100 to 105 degrees acrs Cntrl to Ern AR. Of note, the last few runs of NBM guidance depict 25th percentile MaxT's still residing in the low 90s over much of AR, w/ median to 75th percentile (more likely daily scenarios) in the mid to upper 90s. Along w/ incrsg rain chances Mon night and thru the remainder of the PD, cooler temperatures (relatively speaking) and heat index values below 100 degrees may be seen as well, and after a few weeks of typical Arkansas summer, better rain chances and cooler temps are certainly worth monitoring.
312 AM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025 - A line of storms is expected to develop along a cold front by mid to late this afternoon and slowly push southeasterly through the area.
Discussion: The large high pressure ridge that has been over the region will continue to be the dominant weather feature for one more day. Under this ridge, we will have another day of hot and humid conditions, with the Heat Index reaching near or just over 105 for much of the Tennessee Valley and Cumberland Plateau. Convection should have no problem breaking through a weak cap in the early to mid afternoon, mainly in the higher terrain of the mountains and Cumberland Plateau.
(Tonight through Friday Night) High pressure at the surface and aloft remains the dominant weather feature affecting Middle Tennessee, but its influence is soon to be on the wane. As the ridge starts to break down, we can expect more convective activity tomorrow afternoon than what we've seen the past couple of days.
This activity is likely to hold through the overnight with model agreement seeing the present low pressure system to our west and strong high pressure to our east. On the other hand, the HRRR is not as enthusiastic with both its CAPE and shear values on the lower end. Moving into Friday, model agreement does see the present high pressure system start to shift towards the east. This shift will mark the beginning of the end for our monsoonal setup with many of the models expecting the trough to our finally breaking down as well.
However, the Columbia Basin will be in the high 80s and low 90s before slightly cooling by few degrees tomorrow into Friday.
Today: The upper high that has been influencing the area has shifted slightly south. This could cause cloudier skies, cooler temperatures (highs in the 80s) and reduced chances for convection in the afternoon/evening.
The highest heat index readings of 100 to 105 degrees will occur today.
This front will then move back north as a warm front on Thursday.
1228 AM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025 Updated at 1226 AM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025 - Scattered showers/thunderstorms will continue west of I27 through Friday with drier and warmer weather to the east of I27. - Drier and warmer conditions this weekend.
Tonight into Thursday sees the frontal boundary lifting north as a warm front keeping scattered showers and storms in the forecast. Exact timing and placement of any thunderstorm activity remains unclear given the reliance on the location of the warm frontal boundary. A cold front then swings through Friday as a low pressure system moves through the region. This will be a concern through Friday when the cold front scours out some of the moisture.
339 AM EDT Thu Jun 26 2025 - Rain and Thunderstorms Today through Friday - Hot and Humid Conditions Continue - Rain and Thunderstorms Today through Friday Warm air advection, MUCAPE values of 500-1000J/kg, and a pocket of higher 850mb moisture is sparking off scattered showers and thunderstorms this morning along with the low level jet and the remnant boundary from the storms from Wisconsin. With the moisture and instability in place throughout the day as the warm front shifts north scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected.
123 AM EDT Thu Jun 26 2025 A strong ridge of high pressure will extend over the Mid Atlantic through the rest of the week, then slowly shift offshore toward Bermuda over the weekend. Overnight lows will be in the low to mid 70s.
1252 AM EDT Thu Jun 26 2025 High pressure will build across the region tonight through Thursday night, then exit to the east Friday.
* More widespread storms expected tomorrow across northern and western Missouri as weak trough builds south. Broad ridge of high pressure across the eastern US yielding warm and muggy conditions. Weak trough across central Nebraska is expected to inch southeast tonight into tomorrow as low level jet develops across the central plains leading to increasing thunderstorm coverage across central Nebraska. These storms are expected to undergo a diurnal trend weakening tomorrow morning as the low level jet weakens. With daytime heating and increased destabilization, expect thunderstorms to redevelop Thursday afternoon helping push the trough south through the forecast area. As storms attempt to move farther away to the south from the trough it may become increasingly difficult to sustain themselves with lack of forcing.
The weak trough over the Southwest continues to weaken and move east, leading to a continued warming of afternoon temperatures and lighter winds. As the trough moves out and a weak ridge builds in, winds are expected to become primarily light and terrain driven for much of the region. Chances for thunderstorms today are below 5% in the Sierra Nevada due to the trough weakening and moving east, though leftover moisture may cause the build up of cumulus clouds along the crest.
Meister (Thursday through Friday night) The dominant ridge across the Ohio Valley will finally break down and shift east tomorrow morning. In its wake, weak troughing will be present across much of the northern and central Plains by tomorrow afternoon. That means that at the very least we'll be watching for storms to try to move into northwest and northern Oklahoma off of the high terrain Friday night.
(Tonight through Friday night) The short term forecast period will feature the continued breaking down of the 500 mb ridge or "heat dome" that resulted in a major and widespread heat wave over the Midwest and Eastern CONUS last weekend and earlier this week. Overnight low temperatures tonight and Thursday night are progged to be in the low to mid 70s. Meanwhile, daytime high temperatures Thursday and Friday are progged to be in the low to mid 90s, with the exception of 80s along South Padre Island the the Lower Texas Coast beaches. The highest probabilities will be located closer to the Lower Texas Coast and over the Gulf Waters.
These values should trend upward slightly on Friday, with near 100 along the Rio Grande to the lower 90s in the Hill Country.
The impulse over the Rockies coupled with a substantial moisture plume has maintained showers in the High Plains this morning.
The trough that has been situated to the west begins to lift and weaken today. Thus, dry and warmer conditions are expected again today, with only a slight chance for high-based showers and possibly a thunderstorm around the White Mountains this afternoon.
Mid level ridging in place over the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys will lead to another hot and humid day across the region. Highs this afternoon will be in the lower 90s. It will be warm and muggy tonight with lows in the low to mid 70s. The mid level ridge will begin to flatten out a bit through Friday with heights not quite as high as the past couple of days. The mid level ridge will slowly flatten out through the weekend with a quasi-zonal flow pattern setting up across the Great Lakes region.
Outside of any rain-cooled communities, temperatures are currently in the lower to mid 80s. The lack of convection across the Lower Keys this morning, combined with the nebulous flow, should support the activation of an island cloud line by early afternoon. This cloud line, should it indeed form, would have ample opportunity to get quite active as it interacts with residual boundaries, leading to decent storms for the Lower Keys. From synopsis, an upper level low east of the Florida Peninsula will lift northward and weaken by Friday. Broad surface ridging will rebuild over the Atlantic and support gentle to moderate east to southeasterly breezes across Florida Keys waters.
441 AM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025 - A line of storms is expected to develop along a cold front by mid to late this afternoon and slowly push southeasterly through the area.
(Today and tonight) The upper ridge will remain centered over the eastern U. the next 24 hours, with an upper trough over the western states. Otherwise, dry conditions will prevail today, with afternoon highs in the low to mid 90s and lows tonight in the low to mid 70s.
5 inches early this morning, but we do have an upper level low over the peninsula with relatively cold temperatures aloft.
The overnight water vapor loop and RAP objective analysis fields continued to show a deep, moist layer of the lower-mid troposphere extending from West Texas/Eastern New Mexico northward across western Kansas into Nebraska. Despite the weakening nature of this trough axis, there should be enough convergence to support renewed scattered thunderstorm activity along it and out ahead of it within the deep moist layer where there will be very little capping inversion once temperatures reach the mid to upper 80s.
Upper level trough over Western Washington through Friday.
Mid level ridging remains in place over the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, leading to another hot and humid day across the region. Highs this afternoon will be in the lower 90s. It will be warm and muggy tonight with lows in the low to mid 70s. The mid level ridge will begin to flatten out a bit through Friday with heights not quite as high as the past couple of days. The mid level ridge will slowly flatten out through the weekend with a quasi-zonal flow pattern setting up across the Great Lakes region.
Upper level ridge forecast to expand and intensify over the great basin and will be the primary influence on sensible weather for NE Nevada through the Independence day holiday. Temperatures will start in the low 80s to low 90s for highs, and the upper 40s to upper 50s for morning lows, rising to the mid 90s to mid 100s for highs and lows reaching the upper 50s to upper 60s by the weekend.
Offshore, spotty shower and thunderstorm activity was occurring across our Atlantic coastal waters associated with an upper level low centered near the central-FL Atlantic coast. Multi-layered cloudiness created filtered sunshine for many this morning between departing MCS clouds across our western zones passing waves of clouds from the upper level low to our SSE. Rain chances shift inland into the afternoon under easterly steering flow, with somewhat limited convective depth given some mid-level subsidence noted in the 12z JAX RAOB as the upper level low center drifts northward over the local forecast area into the afternoon.
736 AM EDT Thu Jun 26 2025 - Rain and Thunderstorms Today through Friday - Hot and Humid Conditions Continue - Rain and Thunderstorms Today through Friday Warm air advection, MUCAPE values of 500-1000J/kg, and a pocket of higher 850mb moisture is sparking off scattered showers and thunderstorms this morning along with the low level jet and the remnant boundary from the storms from Wisconsin. With the moisture and instability in place throughout the day as the warm front shifts north scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected.
619 AM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025 A closed upper low over southern Florida meanders north to over the eastern Southeast into the weekend. Temperatures see a bit of a downturn as the upper ridge over the Southeast weakens.
This ridge will keep a drier and more stable airmass in place, and overall rain chances will be extremely limited this afternoon through tonight. This low will induce the development of a dry line, and this dry line could serve as a focusing mechanism for some isolated convective activity in the late afternoon hours. Temperatures will be warmer tomorrow due to the influence of the 500mb ridge axis with readings climbing into the mid 90s.
We will remain squished between an upper low over Florida and upper level ridging across to our west.
Expect similar overnight lows in the mid 60s to lower 70s, with highs again in the low to mid 90s tomorrow.
On top of causing the winds to slowly shift to out of the east during the day, these features may allow some storms to develop either over the higher terrain in Eastern Colorado or along convergence boundaries. Temperatures will also be significantly warmer on Friday as the drier airmass easily heats up into the low to mid 90s.
As we maintain our posture between a dissipating UL trough to the west and an eastward moving UL high pressure to the east the expectation is that the moisture along with the scattered showers we have been seeing for the past 24 hours will continue through at least tomorrow evening.
Expect daytime highs generally in the low to mid 90s with overnight lows generally in the low to mid 70s.
The upper flow will remain out of the west and southwest as an upper level ridge consolidates over the desert southwest through the end of the weekend.
Expect similar overnight lows in the mid 60s to lower 70s, with highs again in the low to mid 90s tomorrow. (Friday night through next Thursday) Hot and dry conditions are expected this weekend with upper level high pressure expanding westward into the region.
32" on the 18z sounding, and overall DCAPE less than 1000 J/kg is on the lower side, but given the storm motion expected today to be in the 15 to 20 mph range, there might just be enough energy to get a severe wind gust out of things. Given the high CAPE values, will not rule out hail, but very low confidence <5% that we manage to get 1" hail. Just too much melting due to the moist environment, and warmer air in general aloft, but will not completely rule it out.
147 PM EDT Thu Jun 26 2025 - Rain and Thunderstorms Today through Friday - Hot and Humid Conditions Continue - Rain and Thunderstorms Today through Friday Warm air advection, MUCAPE values of 500-1000J/kg, and a pocket of higher 850mb moisture is sparking off scattered showers and thunderstorms this morning along with the low level jet and the remnant boundary from the storms from Wisconsin. With the moisture and instability in place throughout the day as the warm front shifts north scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected.
Discussion: The large ridge of high pressure continues over the region, although its grip will begin to slowly weaken.
450 PM EDT Thu Jun 26 2025 High pressure will remain across the region Friday.
(This evening through Friday night) Broad upper level ridge that was nearly overhead has slid farther east and is beginning to breakdown. Since that hasn't completely happened yet, still seeing a mix of convective development with coverage on the lower side of average for summertime as well as quite warm temps.
The upper-level ridge is still firmly in place over much of the Southeast CONUS, so conditions will be similar to that of previous days. The southeast will likely have a similar moisture profile with some support from a retrograding inverted trough. As the weekend approaches, the upper-level ridge that is in place will try to retrograde and move to the west.
(Rest of today through Friday) We are a touch cooler right now than we have been previous days due to a rather large area of rain and thunderstorms that pushed north through the western half of the area this morning. Friday will feature similar conditions with perhaps more widespread convection as the ridge continues to break down. As we move into the weekend, daily rain and thunderstorm chances will stay with us as we lose the influence of the ridge. An upper level low will move across the Great Lakes at the start of the work week that will eventually bring a front through the area.
Friday, will also be a little bit warmer with temperatures in the 80's east of I-25 and in the 70's possibly 80's in the mountains. However, most models have the storms developing mostly in the Panhandle where the moisture is a little better with the higher CAPE values.
These elements combined with ample heating will support isolated to scattered storms later this afternoon through early evening with the higher chances northwest of Interstate 44. (Tonight through Thursday) Weak sfc boundary slides into the forecast area tomorrow while remnant troughing remains aloft as the upper ridge has weakened.
Dry and calm conditions are expected through the short term as high pressure builds. Despite afternoon relative humidity values in the single digits, critical fire weather conditions are generally not expected as afternoon wind gusts will be weaker with the building high pressure. This weekend a ridge of high pressure builds over the region causing temperatures to rise 5-10 degrees above normal. For the most part conditions will remain dry although models are hinting at the return of moisture as a cold front moves from the Northern Rockies out over the Plains.
1230 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025 - A line of storms is expected to develop along a cold front by mid to late this afternoon and slowly push southeasterly through the area.
Precipitation will taper off through midnight with lingering debris clouds as the upper level low near the central FL Atlantic coast migrates northward toward south GA through daybreak Friday.
With clouds and rain lingering around the area tomorrow, highs will be a bit cooler in the mid 80s.
The weak cold front is moving to our east this morning, with lingering clouds mainly across Baker County and southwest Idaho. Low chance (15%) of showers and thunderstorms exists this evening over eastern Valley County, as the trough continues to move out of the northwest.
[Flash] flood watch over east central PA: 3pm to midnight Signals from the 00 and 12Z HREF continue to favor slow moving storms along lee-side trough and backdoor frontal zone. Max temps will be 10 to 20 degrees cooler vs.
Guidance also has these showers and storms training in certain locations near the higher terrain. More widespread coverage of precipitation is expected to be confined further to the west as a weak mid-level ridge builds overhead Friday afternoon.
Showers and thunderstorms return on Friday as a weak cold front approaches the area. Lapse rates are steep in the low-levels but modest to weak aloft. A Rex Block over the SE CONUS has kept a strong ridge over the Ohio Valley, resulting in an extended heat wave for central Indiana.
Any storms that can persist into the evening are expected to dissipate by 9 PM, giving way to a warm and mild summer night with lows in the low and mid 70s. Otherwise, expect mostly sunny skies and highs in the low and mid 90s. Friday night should be clear and warm, with temperatures dropping again into the low and mid 70s.
A broad upper level low centered near the Georgia and Florida Atlantic Coast is slowly wobbling its way northwestward. The Keys remain within drier mid and upper levels slotted around the southern periphery of this low. With that said, the upper level low had already contributed to sloppy lower level troughing and associated enhanced lower level moisture and confluent flow. The upper level low will continue to pull further away through the overnight period. This will also help to draw the lower level trough and moisture further northwestward into the southeastern Gulf and central Florida. This steady flow will help to keep overnight lows in the lower 80s with dew points in the mid to upper 70s.
(The rest of tonight) Scattered showers along with a few storms continued to spread eastward into/across eastern Oklahoma as of mid evening ahead of a weak upper level trof axis/wind shift slowly moving across central Oklahoma. (Tonight through Thursday) Weak sfc boundary slides into the forecast area tomorrow while remnant troughing remains aloft as the upper ridge has weakened.
Fortunately, we've only one more day of the Heat Advisory before slightly cooler temperatures settle in for the weekend. (Rest of today through Friday) We are a touch cooler right now than we have been previous days due to a rather large area of rain and thunderstorms that pushed north through the western half of the area this morning. Friday will feature similar conditions with perhaps more widespread convection as the ridge continues to break down. As we move into the weekend, daily rain and thunderstorm chances will stay with us as we lose the influence of the ridge. An upper level low will move across the Great Lakes at the start of the work week that will eventually bring a front through the area.
830 PM EDT Thu Jun 26 2025 High pressure will remain across the region Friday.
A mostly dry and warmer weather pattern is expected the remainder of this week and into the weekend. This pattern will continue through the upcoming weekend as very weak troughing is replaced by a building ridge of high pressure.
* Another round of showers and thunderstorms are expected on Friday, but max temps will be much cooler than what occurred Thursday. The cold front from earlier today has stalled out in eastern PA, and will continue to bring a few light showers over the next couple of hours.
Upper air analysis indicate ridge flattening across the Gulf Coast states.
1024 PM EDT Thu Jun 26 2025 High pressure will remain across the region Friday.
Additionally showers over Lake Michigan and Wisconsin associated with outflow boundaries and positive vorticity advection ahead of the 500mb trough axis will move in early this morning providing another focus for showers and storms. - Drier Over the Weekend Drier conditions are expected over the weekend, with a cooler day for Saturday with highs in the 70s to low 80s and heat indices matching air temperatures.
(Today through Saturday) Tonight through Saturday morning, ridging continues to weakenas we go through the weekend. Generally, expect temperatures in the low to mid 90s with heat index values in the low 100s for most of the area.
Expect daytime highs generally in the low to mid 90s with overnight lows generally in the low to mid 70s. (Friday night through Saturday night) The upper low will remain largely in place across the Southeast through the short term period. With all the expected convective activity, this will limit Marts to the lower 90s, which will provide relief from the recent stretch of much above normal temperatures.
With dry air near the low levels and lack of instability combined with weak forcing with this wave, very little is anticipated in terms of accumulation, generally less than three tenths of an inch.
143 AM EDT Fri Jun 27 2025 High pressure heat ridge will weaken into the weekend. By the beginning of the weekend, the upper ridge will be weakening, as a weak upper level low develops over the southeastern states. At the surface, a low pressure system will be slowly tracking northeastward into Canada from the Great Lakes, with the associated warm front across New England and cold front extending back into the Ohio Valley, putting the local forecast area in the warm sector. High temperatures will be in the low to mid 80s west of the Blue Ridge, and low to mid 90s in the Piedmont.
Breezy conditions are expected each afternoon and evening, with the highest gusts out west along the Rio Grande.
Saturday itself will have a high chance of seeing the high pressure continue to build lowering the chance of rain showers and thunderstorms. The building of the high pressure will bring an increase in the temperatures for the next several days which will see the highs go into the 90s across the panhandles.
(Today and tonight) High pressure at the surface will keep winds fairly light and variable outside of the daily seabreeze. An area of low pressure aloft is forecast to nose further overhead today, helping scattered to widespread showers and storms to blossom across the region this afternoon and evening.
- Heat returns today and Saturday as highs climb into the low to mid 90s with heat indices approaching the mid 90s today and the upper 90s for some on Saturday.