Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
More pleasant weather with above-average warmth is expected today, so get outside if you can this afternoon! Langfeld Previous Discussion: /Through Wednesday Night/ Mid-level ridging building overhead will allow for a quiet forecast with pleasant conditions through the midweek period. Another abnormally warm day is expected on Wednesday with afternoon highs topping out in the low to mid 70s across much of North and Central Texas. Persistent low-level southerly flow and widespread high clouds will allow for a warmer Wednesday night. Despite increased cloud cover, warm advection will allow highs to reach the 70s once again, while overnight lows only fall into the low/mid 50s.
A dry cold front will push down the Florida peninsula today with gusty northwest winds developing this afternoon. High pressure will settle over the southeast U. and Florida tonight and Thursday in the wake of the front with cooler drier air advecting across the region. A trough and associated low pressure system currently located over the Ohio Valley will continue to dig southeastward, dragging a cold front across the Florida Peninsula today. High pressure will return for the end of the week and the beginning of the weekend ahead of the next system.
536 AM CST Wed Jan 31 2024 There may be a few freezing to sub freezing temperatures this morning and again tomorrow(Thursday) morning, but the remainder of the forecast is warmer.
Scattered to broken high clouds continue to build in from the south overnight with increasing high cloud cover expected through the day as upper troughing pushes ridging east. Cloud cover will keep lows a few degrees warmer than today, from the mid 40s to low 50s. Highs Thursday will be similar, possibly a degree or two cooler than those seen this afternoon.
229 AM MST Wed Jan 31 2024 MORNING DISCUSSION: Synoptic Setup: Forecast begins with a large ridge over the western two thirds of the CONUS and western half of Canada. A large trough is approaching from off the coast of California. Today through Thursday: Ridge will amplify across eastern Montana toward the north allowing clear skies and dry conditions to move through the area with light winds.
1-2 feet of accumulation will be possible over the higher elevations where a winter storm warning remains in effect.
622 AM CST Wed Jan 31 2024 (Today through Thursday Night) The cold front that passed southward acrs AR on Tue ushered in a reinforcing shot of cooler and drier air. These clouds were assocd with cyclonic flow arnd an upper low ovr eastern TN. Contd to trend a few degrees warmer than the NBM guidance, which has been on the cooler side the last few days. As the high shifts to our east on Thu, south winds wl return, with high temps in the 60s ovr much of the Natural State.
(This evening through Thursday) Early this afternoon, an upper-level ridge was located over the southern Plains. This ridge should move off to the east through Thursday afternoon. However, the low-levels appear to be too dry for anything significant so other than a few drops here and there, chances were kept under 10 percent. Despite light winds, overnight low temperatures should be 10 to 15 degrees warmer than what we have seen the past few nights.
1102 AM CST Wed Jan 31 2024 Ridging aloft and at the surface have result in mostly clear skies and abundant sunshine. Temperatures have warmed quickly across much of East Texas and into Western Louisiana and are a few degrees warmer than anticipated. This air mass will stretch thin across I-20, so highs today will be cooler mid to upper 60s east of I-49. The VAD shows N winds in the lower few thousand feet and our N/NE winds will lower dew points and heights aloft compared to yesterday.
There is a backdoor cold front that is anticipated to sag southward from southeast Manitoba late this evening into the overnight hours, which could turn the lighter winds more northerly. Main challenge will be timing of any low clouds and fog associated with the cold front later tonight into tomorrow morning.
The aforementioned cold front will push through the Florida Keys coastal waters from north to south late this afternoon and evening.
We will have stronger winds in the lowest 2,000 feet than we have had in many of foggy nights in the past week or so. The drizzle will occur due to some light lift seen in BUFKIT overviews within the low level moisture. A cold front will drop south through the area Thursday afternoon.
(Tonight through Wednesday) Breezy conditions will continue tonight keeping temperatures warmer. The thermal profile of the lower atmosphere will not be much different than today so another warm day is anticipated, but cloud cover (and maybe a few sprinkles) should keep temperatures down a little bit.
(This afternoon through Thursday Night) Any way you slice it, dry conditions expected through Thursday Night per ridging influences surface and aloft. Lows tonight will once again be below freezing, ranging around 30 degrees TN River Valley Region to mid 20s Upper Cumberland Region. Those building upper level ridging influences will keep lows on Thursday night above the freezing mark, mainly mid to upper 30s.
Temperatures will then trend towards normal values this weekend with a rain and snow mix possible on the lowlands. Today through Thursday Night: A deep 963mb low pressure system off the WA/OR coast near 135W will promote southerly flow over the Inland NW during this period.
(This evening through Thursday) Plentiful mid and upper level moisture was observed funneling over the region early this afternoon within southwest flow aloft ahead of a compact upper low centered over the Four Corners. A drier airmass then arrives by sunrise Thursday as the upper low shifts eastward, bringing a brief period of more zonal flow aloft to our region.
1100 AM MST Wed Jan 31 2024 - Another dry and mild day, with high pressure remaining in place. Fog has once again formed over the cooler basins and valleys.
209 PM CST Wed Jan 31 2024 Ridging aloft and at the surface have result in mostly clear skies and abundant sunshine. Temperatures have warmed quickly across much of East Texas and into Western Louisiana and are a few degrees warmer than anticipated. This air mass will stretch thin across I-20, so highs today will be cooler mid to upper 60s east of I-49. The VAD shows N winds in the lower few thousand feet and our N/NE winds will lower dew points and heights aloft compared to yesterday.
Wind speeds look to remain on the lower side all day, so the main challenge is still how warm it may get today.
1211 PM EST Wed Jan 31 2024 Following a few lingering rain or snow showers in the higher elevations, high pressure will build in from the west providing a dry rest of the day.
Some clearing is possible in western Pennsylvania with building high pressure and light south easterly winds bringing drier air.
The cold advection in the lower levels will make for a cooler day than yesterday as well. /CME/ Today and Tonight: Dry through the period with near normal highs today and slightly cooler than normal temperatures tonight. Early morning satellite imagery/RAP analysis showed the circulation around a closed low spinning over the southern Appalachians. The resulting northwest flow aloft across our region was helping a dry cold front move through our CWA. Early morning surface analysis had this dry cold front generally along and south of Interstate 20. In the wake of the cold front today temperatures will be held in the 50s north of I-20 and in the low to mid 60s south. Tonight, near ideal radiational cooling will help temperatures bottom out below freezing in our northeast and in the 30s elsewhere.
Still a possibility of light flurries in the higher elevations with the continued low level clouds in the area. There will be a few showers/sprinkles around with light snow showers/flurries over the higher elevations mainly north and east to start the day, but these will quickly end during the morning hours.
As the clearing continues into the overnight hours temperatures will be dropping several degrees colder than last night, with the main impacts being patchy fog and temperatures dropping near or just below freezing overnight.
We have adjusted blended guidance down to reflect lows in the m-u 20s, with a patchy-areal coverage of freezing fog (and heavy frost) anticipated between 8-14Z.
Temperatures have already risen into the 50s across much of the area with the lone 'cold' spot in the low 40s in Rusk County Wisconsin where cloud cover stuck around for a few hours longer than the rest. Reaching the all-time month of January record for MSP required all of the variables to go right, which has not happened as the lower level thermal ridge slid out of the area around sunrise and did not coincide with peak heating. This does mean as we get colder overnight that dew points should also begin to fall, with freezing fog becoming a possibility in areas that see temperatures drop to below freezing which is mainly north of the Minnesota River.
High temperatures will be in the low 70s with overnight lows ranging from the mid 40s over the interior (areas west of the lake could fall to the low 40s) and low 50s along the east coast.
Meanwhile further north and east, high pressure will keep clear skies and calm weather. Such conditions will offer the chance to radiate tonight in these areas and temperatures could drop into the low 30s. Remainder of the work week: An omega block over the CONUS will keep deep ridging for our area resulting in quiet weather through the end of the work week with temperatures generally above normal.
Dry conditions prevail through Thursday afternoon as a weak upper ridge passes over the area.
Tomorrow will begin a slight warming trend as ridging builds in over the region. AEH There may be a few freezing to sub freezing temperatures this morning and again tomorrow(Thursday) morning, but the remainder of the forecast is warmer.
(This afternoon through Thursday) A deep ridge axis extends northward through the Central CONUS with high surface pressure centered over the Lower MS River Valley. Flow will become more zonal aloft tomorrow as the ridge loses amplitude and moves across the region. This will result in a slight warming trend with most areas reaching the lower 60s tomorrow afternoon under mostly sunny skies.
1040 AM EST Wed Jan 31 2024 A low pressure system moves east of the area today with diminishing precipitation and clearing skies. High pressure returns Thursday with a warming trend.
/NEW/ /Through Thursday/ Quiet and pleasant weather will continue through the mid-week period thanks to mid-level ridging aloft. Temperatures today will be a couple of degrees cooler than yesterday since we lost our westerly wind component and have increasing high cloud cover through the afternoon. Nonetheless, above-average warmth will last through today across North and Central Texas with highs in the low to mid 70s. Lows tonight will be a bit warmer, generally ranging in the upper 40s to low 50s. Despite increased cloud cover, warm advection will allow highs to reach the 70s once again, while overnight lows only fall into the low/mid 50s.
At the surface, moderate NNW flow of 10-15 MPH (gusting to 15-20 MPH) will continue through 3-4 PM CST as the center of a ridge builds eastward into the TN Valley from the Ozarks, and the combination of clouds and weak CAA will support highs ranging from the l-m 40s (elevated terrain) to perhaps lower 50s in the southwestern corner of the CWFA, where more insolation may be realized later this afternoon.
1248 PM EST Wed Jan 31 2024 - Chance of drizzle/freezing drizzle tonight and drizzle on Thursday.
235 PM CST Wed Jan 31 2024 Key Messages: - Thursday will be very warm despite increasing cloud cover and the low chance (<20%) of afternoon and evening sprinkles.
GOES-16 visible satellite imagery is highlighting an area of low pressure continue to deepen off the coast of North Carolina, with an associated cold front diving across the spine of the Florida Mainland. For this afternoon, the aforementioned cold front will push through the island chain from the north late this afternoon with little fanfare, bringing slightly freshened breezes in its wake and reinforcing cool advection. From synopsis, high pressure centered near the northwestern Gulf coast, along with a low pressure system swinging off the Carolina coast will result in light breezes freshening this afternoon and evening.
1250 PM EST Wed Jan 31 2024 Dry high pressure builds in behind a departing low pressure system this afternoon into tonight.
1245 PM MST Wed Jan 31 2024 A broad trough of low pressure is seen in GOES Satellite imagery off the OR/WA coast this afternoon.
1148 AM CST Wed Jan 31 2024 (Today and tonight) Another warm and sunny day is in store across the area as a mid- level ridge continues to build over the central and southern Plains. Highs today will be in the low 70s for most locations, with light winds out of the south.
1039 AM CST Wed Jan 31 2024 (Today through Thursday Night) The cold front that passed southward acrs AR on Tue ushered in a reinforcing shot of cooler and drier air. These clouds were assocd with cyclonic flow arnd an upper low ovr eastern TN. Contd to trend a few degrees warmer than the NBM guidance, which has been on the cooler side the last few days. As the high shifts to our east on Thu, south winds wl return, with high temps in the 60s ovr much of the Natural State.
High pressure is well-defined across the Intermountain West and Central Plains early this morning per water vapor imagery/RAP analysis. Currently, ground-based obs are reporting temperatures generally in the low 30s with some mid 30s. Forecast soundings/time cross sections are trending toward a mixed ptype of freezing drizzle, drizzle, and snow, but accumulations will be minimal. Before then though, the modestly cold airmass building in behind an early morning cold front will support a cooler and upslope flow regime with a somewhat shallow saturated profile. This could yield a mix of light drizzle, freezing drizzle, and/or snow, mainly near Lake Superior.
---------------------------------------------------------------- The near term forecast remains on track as an upper low departs to the south and overcast skies have filled in across the whole area as indicated by visible satellite. Dry conditions prevail through Thursday afternoon as a weak upper ridge passes over the area.
1121 AM CST Wed Jan 31 2024 (Today and tonight) The upper level ridge will begin to shift to the east and winds at the surface will turn more to the south this afternoon. The continued upper level ridging and warm air advection will allow for another day of above normal temperatures, with highs primarily in the 70s. As the ridge nudges east, winds aloft will turn southwest. The south winds and overcast skies will leave temperatures about 5 to 10 degrees warmer tonight compared to last night. However, with the drier nature of the low to mid levels virga is possible with any precipitation, leaving very little rain accumulation, if any.
1246 PM MST Wed Jan 31 2024 Prominent upper ridging and downsloping is occurring once again across eastern MT, keeping temperatures very above normal and forecast highs flirting with record territories. A ridge to the east of us and a low pressure system moving in from the west will eventually create a Rex block over the eastern United States. Chances for 1/2 inch of precipitation are now very low (<15%) across the lower elevations. Snowfall amounts for the lower elevations have come down as well as it looks increasingly unlikely that cold air will be able to make its way into the region soon enough to switch precipitation types. When looking at the Ensemble Clusters, it can be seen that the farther north the low is located, the more snow that we are likely to see.
301 PM EST Wed Jan 31 2024 Ridge of high pressure continues to build into the Ohio Valley through this evening. A cold front sags south across the area Thursday afternoon and evening.
243 PM EST Wed Jan 31 2024 (This afternoon through Thursday) As the low pressure continues to move off the eastern seabord this afternoon and evening, a ridge of high pressure aloft and at the surface will build in throughout the short term period.
An upper level ridge continues to build over the region, bringing the clear skies notable on satellite imagery. As of 130 PM, surface observations show temperatures ranging in the 50s for the majority of the area, with portions of far southwest MO and southeast KS in the low 60s. An upper level trough will begin to push onto the western CONUS Thursday night. In combination with an upper level trough over the eastern CONUS, this will create a blocking pattern, sandwiching in the upper level ridge currently over the central CONUS.
A cold front currently located across the central Florida peninsula will push south across the remainder of the forecast area through the afternoon. High pressure will build over the region behind the front with drier cooler air advecting across the area on gusty northwest winds.
913 PM EST Wed Jan 31 2024 High pressure will build over Pennsylvania tonight.
No changes to the existing forecast as high pressure continues building into the region with cooler drier air advecting into the state. A cold front currently located across the central Florida peninsula will push south across the remainder of the forecast area through the afternoon. High pressure will build over the region behind the front with drier cooler air advecting across the area on gusty northwest winds.
539 PM CST Wed Jan 31 2024 (This evening through Thursday) Early this afternoon, an upper-level ridge was located over the southern Plains. This ridge should move off to the east through Thursday afternoon. However, the low-levels appear to be too dry for anything significant so other than a few drops here and there, chances were kept under 10 percent. Despite light winds, overnight low temperatures should be 10 to 15 degrees warmer than what we have seen the past few nights.
Low stratus from back door cold front moving through Ontario into eastern Manitoba continues to make its way toward our area, increasing confidence extensive cloud cover will eventually fill into our area from northeast to southwest overnight tonight. There is a backdoor cold front that is anticipated to sag southward from southeast Manitoba late this evening into the overnight hours, which could turn the lighter winds more northerly.
(Tonight) An area of high pressure at the surface will continue to settle into the Tennessee Valley overnight. The main forecast concern for tonight is that the clear/calm conditions along with any lingering residual boundary layer moisture will create an environment favorable for the development of patchy freezing fog, especially along/near bodies of water. Given its patchy nature, significant impacts are not anticipated, but motorists should watch out for isolated slick spots on bridges on their early morning commute (should this fog develop).
411 PM CST Wed Jan 31 2024 (This evening through Thursday Night) Ridging aloft and at the surface will translate east across the forecast area tonight and into the Southeast CONUS. The coldest air tonight and the lowest temperatures will generally be located northeast of a line from Jena to Idabel.
537 PM CST Wed Jan 31 2024 (This afternoon through Thursday) A deep ridge axis extends northward through the Central CONUS with high surface pressure centered over the Lower MS River Valley. Flow will become more zonal aloft tomorrow as the ridge loses amplitude and moves across the region. This will result in a slight warming trend with most areas reaching the lower 60s tomorrow afternoon under mostly sunny skies.
953 PM EST Wed Jan 31 2024 High pressure will build over Pennsylvania tonight.
514 PM CST Wed Jan 31 2024 Key Messages: - Thursday will be very warm despite increasing cloud cover and the low chance (<20%) of afternoon and evening sprinkles.
Changes: Increased precipitation chances for the weekend A ridge is positioned over the central CONUS while a wave is exiting off of the southeast coast. A trough comes onshore on the West Coast on Thursday then will track east into to the central and southern Plains for the weekend.
Temperatures will be seasonal with highs in the low to mid 60s. Temperatures tonight will be on the chilly side with lows in the low to mid 30s and low 40s along the immediate coast.
(This evening through Thursday Night) Ridging aloft and at the surface will translate east across the forecast area tonight and into the Southeast CONUS. The coldest air tonight and the lowest temperatures will generally be located northeast of a line from Jena to Idabel.
Widespread accumulating snowfall is forecast in the Arizona high country while the low elevations experience soaking rains. Expect south winds sustained at 15 to 25 mph for locations along and downslope of the high terrain by afternoon.
An increasing pressure gradient in response to the approaching trough should result in wind speeds closer to 10 to 15 mph tomorrow, and allow for a warmer afternoon.
711 PM EST Wed Jan 31 2024 An upper low pressure system will continue to move away from the area tonight. Dry and slightly warmer weather with seasonable temperatures will be over the region Wednesday into the weekend.
(This afternoon through Thursday) As the low pressure continues to move off the eastern seaboard this afternoon and evening, a ridge of high pressure aloft and at the surface will build in throughout the short term period.
524 PM CST Wed Jan 31 2024 (This afternoon through Thursday Night) Any way you slice it, dry conditions expected through Thursday Night per ridging influences surface and aloft. Lows tonight will once again be below freezing, ranging around 30 degrees TN River Valley Region to mid 20s Upper Cumberland Region. Those building upper level ridging influences will keep lows on Thursday night above the freezing mark, mainly mid to upper 30s.
510 PM CST Wed Jan 31 2024 (This evening through Thursday) Plentiful mid and upper level moisture was observed funneling over the region early this afternoon within southwest flow aloft ahead of a compact upper low centered over the Four Corners. A drier airmass then arrives by sunrise Thursday as the upper low shifts eastward, bringing a brief period of more zonal flow aloft to our region.
Perhaps the best opportunity for any drizzle will come on Thursday as the cold front is dropping south through the area. We will have stronger winds in the lowest 2,000 feet than we have had in many of foggy nights in the past week or so. The drizzle will occur due to some light lift seen in BUFKIT overviews within the low level moisture. A cold front will drop south through the area Thursday afternoon.
/Issued 1219 PM CST Wed Jan 31 2024/ /Through Thursday/ Quiet and pleasant weather will continue through the mid-week period thanks to mid-level ridging aloft. Temperatures today will be a couple of degrees cooler than yesterday since we lost our westerly wind component and have increasing high cloud cover through the afternoon. Nonetheless, above-average warmth will last through today across North and Central Texas with highs in the low to mid 70s. Lows tonight will be a bit warmer, generally ranging in the upper 40s to low 50s.
846 PM EST Wed Jan 31 2024 High pressure will build over Pennsylvania tonight.
(Today) High pressure will dominate through the near and short term forecast yielding some very pleasant weather. Through the rest of the nighttime hours calm winds and decreasing dew point depressions will maintain a chance of freezing fog development with highest potential near and along rivers and valleys. Mid level ridging will dampen and push east throughout the day.
(Tonight through Friday night) An upper level ridge continues to build north across the southern Plains and Ohio Valley with surface pressure expanding across the MS Valley and SE CONUS and is expected to remain in place across the area through Thursday night. West coast as the remnant upper level low becomes cutoff from the parent longwave through extending Central Pacific. The remnant trough gains a strong negative tilt and amplifies, becoming narrow over the Rockies while deepening into the central Plains.