Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Isolated showers and thunderstorms expected today across the High Country, and increasing coverage anticipated through the end of the week/over the weekend. Should see some cumulus build-ups this afternoon over the high terrain with a slight chance (10-15%) of an isolated shower or thunderstorm to develop in the High Country. The return of a more active monsoon pattern is underway as a high pressure system centered over Texas begins to push northwestward. There is a weak area of low-pressure across the southern portion of the California Baja Peninsula, but this will primarily impact central/southern Arizona with elevated moisture.
(Tonight through Thursday night) The subtropical ridge has built back over the southern part of the country and will dominate through the short term period. In the low levels the flow is from the southeast. The upper ridge will suppress any convection and keep cloud cover less than the previous few days. This will lead to slightly cooler temperatures tonight with lows Thursday morning dropping to the lower 70s over the Hill Country and Edwards Plateau to the middle 70s elsewhere.
Main changes this morning were to better represent the warmer than expected overnight lows across the plains this morning and to increase winds a bit area wide to better fit observed winds this morning. A strong upper level ridge builds into the region and remains the dominant upper level feature through this forecast period.
111 PM MDT Wed Jul 31 2024 Upper level ridging is setting up over the region, bringing dry, calm conditions, and increasing temperatures through the end of the week.
While drier/ slightly cooler air behind the boundary will act to reduce heat indices, dew point pooling just ahead of the boundary may lead to locally enhanced heat indices.
DS/12 (Now through Thursday) Little change in the pattern during the near term period as the forecast area will remain on the eastern periphery of an upper level ridge that is centered over the southern plains with an upper trough continuing to be situated just off the US Atlantic coast. Even with the very moist airmass, subsidence from the ridging aloft will again help to suppress convection again somewhat on Thursday, with only scattered showers and storms expected (again primarily over the southern half of the forecast area and especially near the coast).
Early afternoon satellite imagery shows clear skies over SE Idaho outside of some fair weather CU building over the higher terrain as a H5 ridge of high pressure continues its progression north.
(Today through Thursday) Drier air is moving into South Florida from the east as Atlantic high pressure attempts to build back in at the surface. Aloft, a mid- level trough will keep some support for convection nearby but the drier airmass will help limit coverage across much of the area today and again on Thursday. Accordingly, less cloud coverage and convection will mean temperatures that warm into the lower to mid 90s on Thursday afternoon. Overnight lows tonight will struggle to fall into the lower 80s across portions of the east coast urban heat island.
Ridging located both east and west of the Florida Keys along with a TUTT south of Cuba will control our sensible weather up until this weekend as this wave approaches from the east.
And helicity struggles upward into the lower 100s m2/s2, versus double or better that the last 2 events. The long wave trof that makes a week ending Ohio Valley passage will offer continued good chance pops even as the highest severe threat shifts eastward with the trof's axis.
146 PM EDT Wed Jul 31 2024 Troughing extends southward from New England across Florida this afternoon, with ridging to our west over Texas and also to our east over the Atlantic. At the surface, the ridge axis extends across the southern peninsula, keeping a low-level southeast wind flow in place.
First round of convection has passed east into MN, but currently watching round two develop along the cold front north of ABR southwest to Hand/Hyde counties.
(Tonight through Thursday night) Water vapor imagery reveals an upper level ridge in place across the Southern Plains.
This is due to ridging that will gradually break down enough to allow a frontal boundary to approach the area. As the ridge weakens, winds will shift to gain a more southwesterly component, allowing for slightly lower dew points in the lower 70s.
1230 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024 Morning analysis indicate center of building 596DM mid-level ridge to the west, with GOES East water vapor analysis & morning observations indicating north-northwesterly flow aloft.
250 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024 - Showers and thunderstorms likely overnight, some could be severe - "Cooler" temperatures will be push into the region Thursday but still hot - Above normal temperatures continue through the weekend. As such, could see temperatures tomorrow in the southern areas along the Oklahoma state line a little cooler than currently forecast.
Morning analysis indicate center of building 596DM mid-level ridge to the west, with GOES East water vapor analysis & morning observations indicating north-northwesterly flow aloft.
Northwest flow continues, however the ridge which has sat to our west has slowly slid eastward.
Upper level ridge building over Western Washington today but light flow in the lower levels will keep low level moisture over the area through the morning hours.
Area of low pressure also located in northcentral SD with attendant cold front draping southwest through south central SD. Convection is firing along and ahead of the cold front across eastern sections of SD and NE, with some minor showers developing on the backside of the wave in northern Crook Co. Latest CAMS show that the main cold front should clear our far southeastern counties before convection really gets a chance to get going. Attention then turns to the rebuilding SW CONUS ridge that re- establishes itself heading into the weekend.
1229 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024 (Wednesday through Thursday) Heat headlines continue once again for this afternoon as high temperatures under a stout ridge will be similar to yesterday, ranging in the mid to upper 90's.
1130 AM MDT Wed Jul 31 2024 - Strong/severe storms possible today - Upper ridge returns for Thursday through the weekend with elevated fire weather conditions 07z surface analysis had cold front from central ND to eastern WY. Timing of cold front will be critical with regard to severe weather potential. Strong buoyancy/shear ahead of cold front, which could erupt into severe thunderstorms over south-central SD by midday. Temperatures will be tricky with position of cold front holding all the cards.
/NEW/ /Through Thursday/ Hot temperatures will continue to get hotter today and tomorrow as an upper level ridge gradually strengthens overhead.
1215 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024 (Today through Thursday afternoon) Not much change in the short term, as the upper ridge continues to dominate. WV imagery shows the upper ridge centered over east Texas this morning, a little farther northeast than 24 hours ago. Despite this, the ridge will strengthen sufficiently to increase thicknesses locally this afternoon, adding a degree or so to yesterday's highs, resulting in the warmest day this forecast as temperatures top out ~ 8-10 F above normal. Convection today will again be diurnally-driven, orographic activity over the higher terrain. Thursday, an upper trough digging into the Great Lakes region will nudge the upper ridge northwest, re-centering it over the panhandles. Despite this, thicknesses are forecast to come down a little, and highs will be close to today's, if not a degree or so cooler.
1119 AM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024 The persistent upper-level ridge, currently centered over the ArkLaTex, will continue to build east as we move through the afternoon.
This situation is expected to change later this evening however as lift associated with the current Dakotas upper low is expected to cross the MO River into IA. The severe weather potential should be over by Thursday, but the parent upper low is expected to mature over the Upper MS Valley with lingering forcing in eastern IA aiding precip chances in the morning, and the low modifying the environment such that steep low level lapse rates may produce showers and a few storms, and possibly even a funnel cloud or two near the core of the upper low.
Hot and humid conditions with no mentionable precipitation chances will prevail over at least the next 7 days as an upper-level ridge continues to dominate the weather pattern.
Similar to most of July, August will start with a potent area of high pressure building over the region again.
516 PM MDT Wed Jul 31 2024 - Hot and dry weather continues, with elevated fire weather conditions across the higher terrain today and tomorrow.
330 PM MDT Wed Jul 31 2024 - Hot and dry weather continues, with elevated fire weather conditions across the higher terrain today and tomorrow.
610 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024 Hot and humid conditions with no mentionable precipitation chances will prevail over at least the next 7 days as an upper-level ridge continues to dominate the weather pattern.
Building high pressure will bring steadily warming temperatures through the first part of the weekend.
Energy from the s/w will follow as the s/w works west of the CWA, but runs into a healthy upper ridge with axis running s-n through wrn IN. This appears to be triggered by an area of streamwise vorticity out ahead of the ridge in the west. Lows tonight will be in the lower 70s.
Overnight low temperatures will be quite muggy, only dropping into the low to upper 70s. In terms of temperatures, we may be even warmer, approaching the triple digits in a few locations. Coming out of the northwest flow tonight will be welcomed after two or three busy radar days, but this also means that upper ridging will begin to have more of an influence on the region leading to tomorrow potentially being the hottest day of the week.
Troughing extends southward from New England across Florida this afternoon, with ridging to our west over Texas and also to our east over the Atlantic. At the surface, the ridge axis extends across the southern peninsula, keeping a low-level southeast wind flow in place.
This should result in slightly warmer high temperatures Thursday afternoon, but deep mixing with dewpoints in the mid 50s will mean heat indices will likely remain near ambient air temperatures through the afternoon.
High pressure will build over the western US through the remainder of the week, resulting in much warmer and drier conditions.
A small upper level trough continues to persist over the rockies. Despite the cold front passage, temperatures will remain hot Thursday with another heat advisory and excessive heat warning in effect in the eastern counties.
653 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024 (This evening through Thursday) The upper level high will continue to sit over our area for the short-term, bringing hot and dry conditions. The upper level high and 850 mb thermal ridge will strengthen slightly for tomorrow, increasing temperatures by a degree or two for the afternoon. (Thursday night through next Wednesday) Upper level high pressure will continue to be the dominant feature over west central Texas for the next several days.
658 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024 (Tonight through Thursday night) The subtropical ridge has built back over the southern part of the country and will dominate through the short term period. In the low levels the flow is from the southeast. The upper ridge will suppress any convection and keep cloud cover less than the previous few days. This will lead to slightly cooler temperatures tonight with lows Thursday morning dropping to the lower 70s over the Hill Country and Edwards Plateau to the middle 70s elsewhere.
Currently - An Atlantic ridge stretches westward across the Florida Peninsula and along the Gulf Coast. This ridge is maintaining gentle easterly breezes across the Keys this evening. Short Term Update - Atlantic ridging will remain in control of Keys weather through the overnight period. Forecast soundings suggest that the low level inhibition will erode and moisture may tick upwards. A surface Atlantic pressure ridge extending westward across the Florida Peninsula will result in gentle to moderate easterly breezes on Keys waters through the overnight period.
1003 PM EDT Wed Jul 31 2024 High pressure in the Atlantic and a trough across the Southeast will prevail through the weekend. Bermuda high pressure will sit offshore through the period with inland troughing gradually deepening. A mid-level trough will push off the Eastern Seaboard Thursday, with a second eastward propagating trough moving across the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley, with much of its associated forcing displaced to our north.
The upper trough passing to our north will continue to exit the region on Thursday, while upper ridging occurs across the western CONUS. Increases in moisture are anticipated on this day, with the higher dew point air to the east surging back west. Overall, with the ridge building overhead, focus/support still looks to be lacking. However, guidance continues to show lee troughing right along the mountains and plains interface and potentially shifting east across the plains. This could be enough focus/convergence in the lower levels to support at least isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms, especially along and south of Highway 50.
622 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024 (Tonight) Another hot day is underway across the TN Valley, with current temperatures in the lower 90s and dewpoints hovering within the muggy range of the middle to upper 70s. On the regional radars, a train of MCS activity continues to rotate around upper ridging anchored over the ArkLaTex region to our W.
700 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024 (This evening through Thursday) High pressure will remain across the northern Gulf through the short term with west to southwesterly flow across the state. High temperatures will be in the mid to upper 90s, and with the high moisture, heat indices are expected to be around or slightly above 105 this afternoon.
816 PM MDT Wed Jul 31 2024 - Hot and dry weather continues, with elevated fire weather conditions across the higher terrain today and tomorrow.
Though it still may feel muggy out there as dewpoints remain in the low 70s. Northwest flow continues, however the ridge which has sat to our west has slowly slid eastward.
644 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024 (Tonight through Thursday night) Water vapor imagery reveals an upper level ridge in place across the Southern Plains.
917 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024 Temperatures at various observation sites across the Mid-South are still in the low 80s to near 90 degrees with dewpoints in the mid 70s to near 80 degrees, is yielding heat index values from the 90s to low 100s. Latest high resolution CAM guidance depicts some potential for shower and thunderstorm activity across the western and northern sections of the Mid-South tomorrow as a mid- level trough and attendant cold front move toward the region. JPR Hot and humid conditions with no mentionable precipitation chances will prevail over at least the next 7 days as an upper-level ridge continues to dominate the weather pattern.
754 PM EDT Wed Jul 31 2024 High pressure in the Atlantic and a trough across the Southeast will prevail through the weekend. Bermuda high pressure will sit offshore through the period with inland troughing gradually deepening. A mid-level trough will push off the Eastern Seaboard Thursday, with a second eastward propagating trough moving across the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley, with much of its associated forcing displaced to our north.
730 PM EDT Wed Jul 31 2024 High pressure in the Atlantic and a trough across the Southeast will prevail through the weekend. Bermuda high pressure will sit offshore through the period with inland troughing gradually deepening. A mid-level trough will push off the Eastern Seaboard Thursday, with a second eastward propagating trough moving across the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley, with much of its associated forcing displaced to our north.
Our region will continue to be in the warm sector as the associated surface cold front begins to push its way across the OH River, with continued moist air advection from Gulf origins and a generally warm and unstable environment.
642 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024 - Showers and thunderstorms likely overnight, some could be severe - "Cooler" temperatures will be push into the region Thursday but still hot - Above normal temperatures continue through the weekend. As such, could see temperatures tomorrow in the southern areas along the Oklahoma state line a little cooler than currently forecast.
(Today and tonight) Today will be a degree or two warmer for many areas in the FA. The overhead upper high is progged to strengthen to H600 before sunset, allowing highs to reach over the century mark once again. Given the strength of the upper high, storm propagation will be very limited.
Issued by National Weather Service Pueblo CO 1158 PM MDT Wed Jul 31 2024 - Hot and dry weather continues, with elevated fire weather conditions across the higher terrain today and tomorrow.
HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM EDT THIS Weak ridging across the area will keep light SE flow with an afternoon sea breeze in place for today into the weekend.
/Issued 1049 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024/ /Through Thursday Night/ Some subtle changes in the position of the mid-level ridge will bring drier air just above the surface tonight through Thursday night.
229 AM CDT Thu Aug 1 2024 - Cooler and drier air move into the region today behind the departing storm system. - We will start to gradually warm back up this weekend as an upper level ridge strengthens across the western United States and gradually slides into the High Plains.
(Today and tonight) Hot and dry conditions are expected across West Central Texas over the next 24 hours as an upper level ridge continues to dominate our weather. (Thursday night through next Wednesday) Upper level high pressure will continue to be the dominant feature over west central Texas for the next several days.
145 AM EDT Thu Aug 1 2024 High pressure in the Atlantic and a trough across the Southeast will prevail through the weekend. Bermuda high pressure will sit offshore through the period with inland troughing gradually deepening. A mid-level trough will push off the Eastern Seaboard Thursday, with a second eastward propagating trough moving across the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley, with much of its associated forcing displaced to our north.
140 AM EDT Thu Aug 1 2024 High pressure ridge will remain centered offshore through the week gradually building eastwards as the week continues. Mid-level ridging briefly builds over the area on Thursday, once again limiting precip coverage. This translates to highs climbing into the mid 90s, and combined with dew points in the low to mid 70s widespread heat indices over 105 are likely for inland areas for a few hours tomorrow afternoon.
Upper level ridge will continue to expand over the next several days, with a warming trend.
1229 AM CDT Thu Aug 1 2024 - Showers and thunderstorms likely overnight, some could be severe - "Cooler" temperatures will be push into the region Thursday but still hot - Above normal temperatures continue through the weekend. As such, could see temperatures tomorrow in the southern areas along the Oklahoma state line a little cooler than currently forecast.
At the surface, low pressure is centered over southern Minnesota with a cold front stretched southwestward into the central Plains and a warm front extending eastward into north-central Illinois. Radar mosaic as of 3 am shows a few clusters of storms in west-central Illinois and northern Missouri, being fed by large-scale ascent tied to the upper low, MLCAPE of 2000+ J/kg, and a ~30 kt LLJ. The aforementioned upper trough will swing into northern Illinois later today, spreading seasonably strong mid-level flow (30-35 kts) and large-scale ascent over the area. A separate area of storms may develop further north closer to the upper low as lapse rates steepen. A cold front will push through late tonight, turning temperatures more seasonable to close out the week. Dewpoints won't decrease significantly behind the front, with values still expected to remain in the low 70s.
Above normal low temperatures should still be expected in most spots, but with temperatures likely to be cooler behind the outflow boundary from the Kansas complex, will drop lows a couple of degrees in parts of northeast Oklahoma and into northwest Arkansas, in line with the HRRR trends. While drier/ slightly cooler air behind the boundary will act to reduce heat indices, dew point pooling just ahead of the boundary may lead to locally enhanced heat indices.
1132 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024 Temperatures at various observation sites across the Mid-South are still in the low 80s to near 90 degrees with dewpoints in the mid 70s to near 80 degrees, is yielding heat index values from the 90s to low 100s. Latest high resolution CAM guidance depicts some potential for shower and thunderstorm activity across the western and northern sections of the Mid-South tomorrow as a mid- level trough and attendant cold front move toward the region. JPR Hot and humid conditions with no mentionable precipitation chances will prevail over at least the next 7 days as an upper-level ridge continues to dominate the weather pattern.
(Today) We will remain solidly under high pressure influence today with high temperatures continuing on their warming trend.
227 AM MDT Thu Aug 1 2024 Strong upper level ridge is building over the area this morning.
/NEW/ /Through Thursday Night/ Some subtle changes in the position of the mid-level ridge will bring drier air just above the surface tonight through Thursday night.
Then attention turns to a closed upper low dropping southeast out of central MN to far northeast IA. Highs will be in the 80s with dewpoints in the lower 70s so still quite humid. Welcome to August! Tonight: With the upper low tracking into northern IL there should still be scattered showers and a few storms lingering into the overnight hours across eastern IA and northwest IL.
1239 AM CDT Thu Aug 1 2024 (This evening through Thursday) High pressure will remain across the northern Gulf through the short term with west to southwesterly flow across the state. High temperatures will be in the mid to upper 90s, and with the high moisture, heat indices are expected to be around or slightly above 105 this afternoon.
1252 AM CDT Thu Aug 1 2024 (Tonight through Thursday night) The subtropical ridge has built back over the southern part of the country and will dominate through the short term period. In the low levels the flow is from the southeast. The upper ridge will suppress any convection and keep cloud cover less than the previous few days. This will lead to slightly cooler temperatures tonight with lows Thursday morning dropping to the lower 70s over the Hill Country and Edwards Plateau to the middle 70s elsewhere.
(Today and tonight) Hot and dry conditions are expected across West Central Texas over the next 24 hours as an upper level ridge continues to dominate our weather.
1234 AM CDT Thu Aug 1 2024 (Tonight through Thursday night) Water vapor imagery reveals an upper level ridge in place across the Southern Plains.
1208 AM CDT Thu Aug 1 2024 (This evening through Thursday) The upper level high will continue to sit over our area for the short-term, bringing hot and dry conditions. The upper level high and 850 mb thermal ridge will strengthen slightly for tomorrow, increasing temperatures by a degree or two for the afternoon. (Thursday night through next Wednesday) Upper level high pressure will continue to be the dominant feature over west central Texas for the next several days.
609 AM CDT Thu Aug 1 2024 (Today and tonight) Today will be a degree or two warmer for many areas in the FA. The overhead upper high is progged to strengthen to H600 before sunset, allowing highs to reach over the century mark once again. Given the strength of the upper high, storm propagation will be very limited.
537 AM CDT Thu Aug 1 2024 (Today) We will remain solidly under high pressure influence today with high temperatures continuing on their warming trend.