Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A mid-level ridge axis over the Four Corners associated with a high centered over northwestern Mexico will gradually shift eastward into portions of TX through the weekend.
The first wave of scattered storms is anticipated this afternoon into the early evening associated with a pre-frontal trough and area of warm air/moisture advection aloft. 25" and high freezing levels around 16,000 ft AGL are supportive of torrential downpours due to efficient warm rain processes.
A trough and low pressure circulation over the region will bring widespread below-average high temperatures today, about 10 degrees cooler than normal.
133 AM EDT Sat Jul 5 2025 High pressure over the region tonight will result in dry and cool conditions. Temperatures will warm back to normal levels on Saturday, as high pressure shifts east off the coast.
As this 500mb wave pushes eastbound, expecting the attending surface cold front to begin to move towards the region. This along with some Q-vector convergence in the mid- levels will aid in developing some scattered showers for the morning hours and again during the afternoon/evening as the main cold front progresses from west to east across the local area. Additionally, weak flow aloft and near the surface will keep 0-6km bulk shear values to a minimum which in turn should keep storm organization to multi-cellular to perhaps linear as the cold front pushes through the area later into the afternoon and evening. Therefore, expecting virtually no hail threat with these storms and really only thinking that some strong wind gusts may be a possibility with any more vigorous storm cluster/linear segments given the higher precipitable waters to around 1.
A diffuse, slow moving cold front extended south across central Kansas this morning. PWATs were likely near record values at or just above 2" and freezing levels were at or above 15kft so storms will likely produce heavy rainfall rates of 1-2"/hr this morning. Meanwhile, the slow moving cold front will sag southward and should be the focus for renewed scattered storms this evening. Otherwise, most areas should be dry with weak high pressure in place.
/Issued 303 AM MDT Sat Jul 5 2025/ - Meteorological Overview: Cool and wet conditions will linger through today as the low pressure system continues its march east.
613 AM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025 Overall, drier and calmer conditions are expected to prevail under upper level ridging. (12Z TAFS) Widespread VFR conditions are expected through the morning hours Saturday as high pressure controls the weather pattern.
An upper level ridge remains over the region today but will begin to flatten out tonight into Sunday as lower heights move in from the northwest. It will be another hot day as temperatures climb into the lower to mid 90s. Highs are forecast to rise into the low to mid 90s again. An upper level ridge develops across the west by mid week with troughing developing across the east.
218 AM PDT Sat Jul 5 2025 Updated at 155 AM PDT Sat Jul 5 2025 * Warming Trend starts today as high pressure returns.
After today, the disturbances off of the southeastern coast will lift to the northeast, and ridging will be the dominate pattern again across the area.
637 AM EDT Sat Jul 5 2025 High pressure extending across the region will slide east on Sunday.
However, we could see an increase to our winds mid-week as a closed low positioned off the central California coast begins to move inland. This low could usher in a pronounced dry slot at mid-levels, yielding very dry conditions with poor humidity recoveries and single digit afternoon RH across western Nevada.
649 AM EDT Sat Jul 5 2025 The weekend gradually gets warmer and more humid with shower chances mainly confined to the mountains on Sunday.
- Cooler temperatures Saturday and Sunday with highs only in the 70s and 80s.
An upper ridge will continue to keep very warm conditions over the forecast area through this weekend. High temperatures today and Sunday will generally be in the lower 90s with heat indices at some locations in northwest Ohio and south of Ft Wayne approaching the upper 90s. A weak cold front will arrive Sunday and reach a very moist airmass over northern Indiana with precipitable water values around 2.
518 AM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025 (Today) A weak 5h trough axis was slowly shifting southwest through the TN valley into west GA this morning. A cluster of showers has developed in the past couple of hours in Winston and Walker Counties and are moving westward with the inverted trough axis. Another hot day is anticipated with highs in the lower to middle 90s.
The first wave of scattered storms is anticipated this afternoon into the early evening associated with a pre-frontal trough and area of warm air/moisture advection aloft. 25" and high freezing levels around 16,000 ft are supportive of torrential downpours due to efficient warm rain processes. A trough of low pressure will approach the area during the afternoon and evening, bringing chances for scattered showers and thunderstorms. The highest chances for thunder are at CID and DBQ, mainly between 21Z/Sat to 03Z/Sun.
628 AM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025 (Tonight through Sunday night) High pressure across the Gulf continues to build through the weekend, as the mid-level ridge settles back across the Desert SW and above normal moisture works back into Deep South Texas. Will hold a moderate risk of rip currents another day along the lower Texas coast.
615 AM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025 - Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible this weekend, with temperatures trending warmer. Otherwise, expect warmer temperatures today with highs in the lower to mid 90s across the western 1/3 of the area and 80s elsewhere.
658 AM EDT Sat Jul 5 2025 Dry high pressure will linger atop the region today with an influx of Atlantic tropical moisture expected on Sunday.
The trough will continue to move eastward, while upper-level ridging builds in today creating warmer and mostly dry conditions. Temperatures are expected to reach the lower to upper 90s with some spots along the Pecos River climbing to the triple digits. Sunday, low to medium (20-60%) rain chances return for a lot of locations across the region due to an inverted trough approaching from the east. With these higher than normal dew points, high temperatures are going to be cooler than Saturday reaching the mid 80s to lower 90s for most.
The ArkLaTex will be freed from the influence of upper level forcing and steering mechanisms, with a large area of high pressure over the Desert Southwest and northern Mexico, and a closed low over the northeast Gulf and a developing Tropical Depression off the Georgia and Carolina coast. In the absence of rainfall and with mostly sunny skies, temperatures will rapidly warm to highs in the low to middle 90s areawide, with several sites starting to aim for the upper 90s, followed by another warm and muggy night of lows in the 70s. Consistent with the projected steering aloft, the PoPs supplied by model guidance indicate the highest rainfall chances across our northern, eastern and southeastern zones, with the I-20 corridor of Texas remaining comparably dry.
- Meteorological Overview: Cool and wet conditions will linger through today as the low pressure system continues its march east.
The upper-level high will start breaking down come Sunday with weak troughing moving into the area.
Heading into the afternoon, mid-level ridge builds across the southwestern CONUS and will eventually work toward a stagnant 594dam high. Freezing level is fairly high, and with the lack of deep layer shear, would be difficult for hail stone to see substantial growth. The remainder of the week will be characterized by several short- waves that move over the ridge in the southwestern CONUS and eject across the Plains into the lower Missouri River Valley.
630 AM EDT Sat Jul 5 2025 High pressure will keep the weather mainly dry today, though cannot rule out an isolated storm in the North Carolina mountains. A tropical system will move onshore in South Carolina by Sunday pushing showers and a few storms toward the Blue Ridge and Piedmont. Key Messages: 1) Tropical Depression approaches, bringing chances for rain Tropical Depression Three, currently off the GA/SC coast, will make its way northward over the weekend, potentially strengthening enough to become the third named Tropical Cyclone of the year, Chantal.
* Hot and dry today, with afternoon highs in the low to mid 90s. Mid and upper level ridging continues to expand northeast over the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes. Temperatures will top out in the low to mid 90s. A wave of low pressure will move from the Upper Midwest to Great Lakes tonight, with a trailing cold front still well off to the northwest. It won't be enough to prevent temps from topping out in the low to mid 90s once again, with heat index values briefly topping out near 100.
Some periods will have higher chances than others, and will depend on the location of boundaries and timing of waves aloft moving across the region on the eastern side of what will be a strong subtropical ridge over the Southwest. Surface features are rather nondescript with some weak confluence in the low level flow across northern OK along the I-35 corridor. (Through Saturday Night) An MCS over western KS, aided by an ejecting s/wv trough, is expected to weaken by the time it reaches NE OK, according to the HRRR.
Highs Sunday will reach the lower to middle 90s and heat indices will top out in the mid to upper 90s north of the state line and closer to 100 degrees in spots through the Florida counties.
- Warmer and drier mid to late week. (This afternoon through Sunday night) Water vapor imagery depicts low to mid-level high pressure over northern Mexico, southern New Mexico, and far west Texas. An inverted trough approaches the area from the east Sunday, bringing chances (10-30%) of rain for many locations. Sunday's highs are expected to be cooler due to upslope flow and humid conditions, limiting highs in the mid 80s to low 90s. However, spots along the Rio Grande are forecast to see readings in the lower triple digits.
(This afternoon through Sunday night) Upper ridging is thus far keeping convection mostly at bay this afternoon. With a lack of rain-cooled outflow, temperatures are currently sitting in the lower 90s most locations and should rise into the mid 90s across much of the area. Any showers and storms that develop this afternoon should diminish around or shortly after sunset, with overnight lows forecast in the mid to upper 70s, which is a few degrees warmer than normal most locations. Tomorrow will see the start of a pattern change as the upper high breaks down, being replaced by weak troughing between an upper high over the southwestern CONUS and a second high building over the western Atlantic.
The highest threat for flooding will remain south of our area.
221 PM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025 - Scattered showers and thunderstorms will spread eastward into central IL this afternoon and evening and continue into Sunday (40-70% chance) as a cold front slowly moves into the area. More seasonably hot and humid conditions can otherwise be expected the next several days as a cold front brings slightly cooler conditions. A cold front currently draped from northern WI southwestward through IA and KS will be the focus for weather development over the upcoming couple of days.
Seasonable heat and humidity remain forecast with highs within a few degrees of 90 each afternoon and dewpoints in the low 70s.
104 PM EDT Sat Jul 5 2025 * Hot and dry today, with afternoon highs in the low to mid 90s. Mid and upper level ridging continues to expand northeast over the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes. Temperatures will top out in the low to mid 90s. A wave of low pressure will move from the Upper Midwest to Great Lakes tonight, with a trailing cold front still well off to the northwest. It won't be enough to prevent temps from topping out in the low to mid 90s once again, with heat index values briefly topping out near 100.
(Sunday Night through next Saturday) Mid-level troughing will drop south into the work week, allowing disturbances to have more of an effect on middle Tennessee through the mid week. A ridge in the desert SW will then flatten, allowing the trough to dip further south at the end of the work week.
- Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible this weekend, with temperatures trending warmer. Otherwise, expect warmer temperatures today with highs in the lower to mid 90s across the western 1/3 of the area and 80s elsewhere.
A recent surface analysis depicts a frontal zone rather than a sharp cold front extending from north-central Iowa towards northwest Kansas, pooling better dewpoints at the surface across its southeastern periphery in Iowa. Tomorrow is expected to remain dry as northerly winds, high pressure, and less muggy dewpoints settle into the area. Highs are expected to reach the low-to-mid 80s, and an afternoon MCS that starts across western Nebraska will plow southeast through much of southwest into south-central Nebraska along a theta-e gradient that will steer it south and west of the Fairbury area in our extreme southwestern portion of the forecast area into the overnight hours.
But tonight is looking to stay dry with the help of the exiting ridge and the incoming influence of the stationary area of high pressure over the Desert Southwest. These showers will also be assisted by an area of low pressure off in the Gulf that will supply plenty of moisture and added heat.
In addition, we also still have robust tropical moisture in the area, with dewpoints in the low to mid 70s, and precipitable water values hovering around 2 inches.
And with temperatures peaking in the lower 90s this afternoon and heat index values up to 100 degrees, heat safety is imperative. Otherwise, overnight lows will be near normal in the upper 60s (NE AL) to the lower 70s (elsewhere) under mostly clear skies.
248 PM EDT Sat Jul 5 2025 High pressure extending across the region will slowly shift east on Sunday, with a chance of a late day thunderstorms ahead of an approaching cold front.
- Until storms arrive later today, it will remain very warm and humid with heat indices in the lower to middle 90s over east- central to northeast Wisconsin. Strongest wave within the trough is remnant MCV that is shifting over western Upper Michigan with tail end of the MCV helping to kick off convection over northwest into central and north-central WI.
238 PM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025 - Scattered showers and weak storms move through this evening along a passing cold front. All this is to say, funnel clouds and landspouts are near-surface features which rarely cause damage and based on where the environment is favorable will be too low to see by the MPX radar which is looking roughly 4000 to 5000ft too high to see the feature which is confined to the lowest 1000ft of the atmosphere. Global ensembles show potential for each day this upcoming week for afternoon activity as temperatures remain near normal in the low to mid 80s and humidity remains locked in without a significant change in airmass.
Expect hit-or-miss showers across central and eastern Kansas today, ahead of a mid-level trough progressing east, amidst unseasonably high precipitable waters. Our attention then turns to the potential for isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms late this afternoon and evening, mainly along/north of Highway 50, as a weak cold front stalls across central KS. The severe threat should end by late evening, although non-severe activity could fester past midnight aided by a weak low-level jet, and mid-level troughing approaching from the north. Per deterministic and ensemble consensus, the upper ridge is expected to flatten some, remaining primarily south-southwest of the region the next several days. TEMPERATURES: With the upper ridge flattening some and remaining primarily south- southwest of the area, along with periodic shower/storm chances, mostly seasonable temperatures are expected for at least the next 7 days across the region.
(Tonight through Sunday night) Slow southern transit of the low pressure associated with the convective complex in central TX will maintain low (<20%) of showers to the Rio Grande plains and along the mid-upper RGV this weekend. Sunday afternoon, gusts up to 25 mph are possible as the low pressure continues its southward trek.
A warming trend will begin the new week as an upper ridge strengthens over Western Washington. The ridge will weaken and onshore flow will increase for a brief cooling trend midweek before warmer conditions return as an upper ridge rebuilds.
A broad trough of low pressure continues to bring below normal temperatures to central California for today, though as the new week approaches, the system will gradually drop southward along the coast, becoming cutoff from the main upper level flow. However, as the week progresses, a ridge of high pressure currently located over the Four Corners is expected to slide westward and set up over central and southern California.
1145 AM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025 Overall, drier and calmer conditions are expected to prevail under upper level ridging.
Additionally, steep low-level lapse rates will be in place, which should combine with the high PWATs to result in the threat for some locally strong wet microbursts. Storms look to come in two waves, with the first having more scattered coverage this afternoon along a pre-frontal trough, and a second more widespread round as the cold front moves through. With the anomalously high PWATs and high freezing levels around 16,500 ft per the 05. The bulk of the forcing with the front will remain to our south and east on Sunday, but a few isolated showers and storms can't be ruled out with a mid-level trough continuing to exit the area. Temperatures on Sunday will be more seasonal compared to the last few days, with highs warming to the lower to middle 80s.
Coupled with falling heights aloft as the main upper low moves overhead, this should aid additional thunderstorm development primarily for Deschutes, Crook, Wheeler, and Grant counties. The main burn scars of concern include those associated with the Wiley Flat, Rail Ridge, Crazy Creek, and Falls fires. Quieter weather will return Saturday and Sunday as the low exits to the east and drier zonal flow aloft moves overhead.
Discussion: The ridge over the area today will weaken and drift southward into the Gulf over the next few days as a broad trough develops over the Great Lakes and OH Valley region. Sunday will be mainly a dry day again for most spots, although some isolated showers and storms may develop in the higher terrain in the afternoon. A midlevel ridge axis will still extend over the Appalachians, and limit convective potential.
The first wave of scattered storms is anticipated this afternoon into the early evening associated with a pre-frontal trough and area of warm air/moisture advection aloft. 25" and high freezing levels around 16,000 ft are supportive of torrential downpours due to efficient warm rain processes. Increasing chances of thunderstorms remain on tap for this afternoon as a trough of low pressure approaches the area. A cold front will sweep through this evening into tonight, leading to yet another round of showers and thunderstorms, with more potential for locally strong wind gusts. Not only will winds turn more northwesterly behind the front, but cooler air will help support lowering ceilings down to at least MVFR, if not IFR, with confidence in IFR cigs highest near DBQ.
A few scattered showers have formed this afternoon along horizontal roll circulations over the east central zones and these should remain isolated and then diminish this evening in a regime of general subsidence in upper ridging. Heights fall overnight as the ridging breaks down and showers and storms currently across Wisconsin advance east.
124 PM EDT Sat Jul 5 2025 Tropical cyclone Chantal will move into and across the coastal plain of the Carolinas through Sunday night.
Moisture continues to increase into Sunday as high pressure begins to build over New Mexico and become amplified by a cut-off low off of California. As a result, chances for showers and thunderstorms increase on Sunday, mainly over the higher terrain.
141 PM EDT Sat Jul 5 2025 The large upper low continues to spin over the region while TS Chantal moves towards the Carolina coast through tonight into Sunday as a weak low level boundary washes out over the Peninsula keeping the warm, moist and unstable airmass over the state. For the upcoming week, latest guidance brings weak ridging aloft over the region while weak surface W Atlantic high pressure axis stretches across the FL Peninsula with fairly typical summertime conditions for the area. Weak high pressure will build into the region through the up coming week keeping winds light and seas slight.
105 PM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025 - Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible this weekend, with temperatures trending warmer. Otherwise, expect warmer temperatures today with highs in the lower to mid 90s across the western 1/3 of the area and 80s elsewhere.
From synopsis, a deep trough complex over the Southeast US and Florida will maintain gentle southwest breezes across the Florida Keys through today. As the trough lifts northeast starting Sunday, a weak ridge axis will rebuild across the Keys and South Florida, resulting in a return to generally light to gentle easterly breezes. Rainfall totals were the highest in Key West as well with Key West International Airport measuring 4.
The associated surface cyclone trekking across Hudson Bay will work into Quebec as the attendant cold front draped far to its southwest into the central Great Plains swings across the region tonight and Sunday. The next round of more widespread showers and storms will arrive late this evening from the northwest ahead of the aforementioned cold front. Otherwise, cooler temperatures will be in place Sunday with the rain and frontal passage. Highs will range from the low to mid 70s across northwest lower and eastern upper to the low to mid 80s for those near Saginaw Bay.
107 PM PDT Sat Jul 5 2025 * Temperatures will continue to warm through the first half of the week as a ridge of high pressure pushes into the region. High-pressure ridging will continue to push into the area from the southeast through the weekend and into the first part of the week.
Otherwise dry a mostly sunny day across the rest of the region with temperatures slightly warmer than yesterday, but still 5-10 degrees below normal.
Updated at 200 PM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025 - Warm and humid weather continues each day, with high temperatures in the low to mid 90s and heat index values in the upper 90s to low 100s.
- Highs remain in the low to mid 90s outside of the mountains, 70s to 80s depending on elevation in the mountains. Temperatures will remain a few degrees above average with highs today outside the mountains in the low 90s. Tomorrow, highs will warm a bit in the mid 90s (outside of east central Georgia, where potential storms and cloud cover may keep things a bit cooler).
903 PM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025 (This afternoon through Sunday night) Upper ridging is thus far keeping convection mostly at bay this afternoon. With a lack of rain-cooled outflow, temperatures are currently sitting in the lower 90s most locations and should rise into the mid 90s across much of the area. Any showers and storms that develop this afternoon should diminish around or shortly after sunset, with overnight lows forecast in the mid to upper 70s, which is a few degrees warmer than normal most locations. Tomorrow will see the start of a pattern change as the upper high breaks down, being replaced by weak troughing between an upper high over the southwestern CONUS and a second high building over the western Atlantic.
615 PM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025 (Tonight through Sunday night) Slow southern transit of the low pressure associated with the convective complex in central TX will maintain low (<20%) of showers to the Rio Grande plains and along the mid-upper RGV this weekend. Sunday afternoon, gusts up to 25 mph are possible as the low pressure continues its southward trek.