Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
637 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 (Tonight through Tuesday night) An upper level trough in the middle of the country has pushed the subtropical ridge to the south and the 500mb flow is from the west- southwest. A surface cold front has made it into our northern area and is stretched from Temple to Rocksprings to the Big Bend. The upper trough will push a little farther south tonight adding better lift near the surface boundary. The upper trough will dig farther southeast Tuesday night and there will be lingering low chances for rain across our CWA. Temperatures will be divided by the front with cooler temperatures to the north and warmer to the south.
924 PM EDT Mon Sep 23 2024 A wave of low pressure will bring showers and thunderstorms to the Ohio Valley tonight and Tuesday.
However, upper ridging across the Lower Mississippi Valley and SE CONUS will slow its eastward progression, stalling the boundary across the region tonight. Although it appears a pre-frontal trough has push through the region, clearing the CU field and leaving behind mostly clear skies. Expect the temperature gradient to remain overnight, with lows in the low to mid 60s along and north of Interstate 30, and low to mid 70s over the remainder of the area. The expected cloud cover and potential convection should yield slightly cooler temps, with highs generally in the mid to upper 80s areawide. The front should finally push through the region by tomorrow night, bringing slightly cooler temps, with lows in the 60s areawide.
A few rumbles of thunder will be possible overnight before a secondary round of showers and storms develops along a cold front midday Tuesday. A cold front will move through the region Monday night through Tuesday, bringing high temperatures into the upper 70s and afternoon thunderstorms in the portions of northeast Mississippi and the Tennessee river valley.
Overnight expect calm conditions and lows in the low 70s north to the upper 70s south.
There are some signals for isolated showers or sprinkles to lift into east-central WI late tonight into Tuesday, but forecast soundings indicate there may be too much dry air in the low to mid-levels. Despite another night of cooler temperatures (lows in the middle 30s to low 50s), the coverage of middle and high clouds in north-central WI, where temps will be coldest, should hinder frost development. With the mid-level trough overhead, anticipate similar conditions to continue into Tuesday with a small chance for showers or sprinkles in east-central WI and dry conditions elsewhere. Tuesday Night Through Monday Normal highs start out this week in the upper 60s but by next Monday are in the low to mid 60s.
The warming trend continues into Tuesday as an upper ridge moves into the region.
The forecast for the remainder of the day into tomorrow remains on track: high pressure/heights continue to dominate and is projected to keep our weather benign, mostly clear, breezy, yet our temperatures are expected to trend several degrees warmer than seasonal.
650 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 (This evening through Tuesday) An upper level trough axis is currently swinging through our area as showers and storms across the NW Hill Country continue to weaken and push east early this afternoon. Members of the 12Z HREF continue to differ on the amount of development and time of initiation so have capped PoPs in the low-end chance category. Elsewhere, with increased cloud cover and rain chances, temperatures will hold in the lower to mid 80s.
755 PM EDT Mon Sep 23 2024 A wave of low pressure will bring showers and thunderstorms to the Ohio Valley tonight and Tuesday.
Upper level ridging over the Gulf Coast will gradually slide east and become centered over the western Atlantic by Tuesday evening. At the same time, an upper trough will dig across the Mississippi Valley and send an associated surface front into northern portions of Mississippi and Alabama. The influence of the upper ridging aloft and lack of substantial deep layer moisture will keep conditions mostly dry through Tuesday. Temperatures tonight will dip into the upper 60s and lower 70s with high temperatures on Tuesday rising back into the lower 90s with upper 80s along the immediate coast.
1040 AM CST Sun Nov 10 2024 Surface analysis late this morning places an occluding cold front from eastern Iowa back through southeast Missouri and eastern Arkansas. CJC One more wet day across the Midsouth today featuring numerous rain showers, at least a few thunderstorms, cloudy skies and high temperatures in the low to middle 70s.
Shallow showers from this earlier this morning have drifted out into our Gulf waters, leaving the island chain rain free this afternoon despite a few cloud streamers sputtering off the Lower and Middle Keys. Mild temperature values are observed along the island chain with highs in the mid 80s and dewpoints stuck in the lower to mid 70s. Usually, this sort of feature would typically be accompanied by an increase in rain chances, but a decrease of the wind field will reduce the amount of available lift for convective initiation and model soundings suggest a slow moistening of the lower to mid levels of the atmosphere.
1143 AM CST Sun Nov 10 2024 Surface analysis late this morning places an occluding cold front from eastern Iowa back through southeast Missouri and eastern Arkansas. CJC One more wet day across the Midsouth today featuring numerous rain showers, at least a few thunderstorms, cloudy skies and high temperatures in the low to middle 70s.
Rain chances will gradually come to an end tonight as a weak cold front moves through the Mid-South.
Clouds and precipitation will prevent temperatures from budging much overnight, with lows only dropping into the lower 60s.
549 PM CST Sun Nov 10 2024 - Cold front to arrive tonight, bringing breezy NW winds and cooler temperatures for Monday.
639 PM EST Sun Nov 10 2024 Rain will decrease in coverage this evening, and end overnight behind a crossing cold front.
High resolution and short range model guidance keep the deep layer moisture pooled across the southern half of the forecast area tonight as moisture from Post-Tropical Cyclone Rafael is drawn northward. Lows tonight will range in the lower to mid 60s over inland areas and in the upper 60s to around 70 degrees closer to the coast. The high rip current risk also continues through Monday night.
Some overrunning light rain and showers will move in from the SW and over the top of the low level rain bands.
High temperatures will be in the low to mid 80s, and possibly in the upper 70s across the Panhandle depending on how cloud cover evolves Monday.
710 PM EST Sun Nov 10 2024 Low pressure to track through the Great Lakes overnight with southward trailing cold front sweeping through the region. Dry weather conditions return for the first part of the work week as high pressure builds back in.
533 PM CST Sun Nov 10 2024 Rain chances will gradually come to an end tonight as a weak cold front moves through the Mid-South.
Strong high pressure over New England continues to build south through the Carolinas into Georgia this afternoon. A cool and wet night is expected ahead of an approaching cold front.
High pressure in the Atlantic continues to dominate the pattern.
After a calm, but cooler midweek, additional rains arrive and last into the weekend. The afternoon forecast update had to make a few time of arrival adjustments to the cold front and main rain band, otherwise the forecast remains in place for the cold front arriving the the CWA mid Monday morning and passing over the SF Bay closer to noon, then the Monterey Bay in the mid afternoon.
740 PM EST Sun Nov 10 2024 Rain will decrease in coverage this evening, and end overnight behind a crossing cold front.
- An overall cooler than normal Veterans Day with some breezy winds across the west expected.
654 PM EST Sun Nov 10 2024 - Showers and Isolated Thunderstorms this Evening - Strong wind gusts on Monday afternoon - Mostly Mild Week With Rain Chances Wed Night and Late Weekend - Showers and Isolated Thunderstorms this Evening Upper low traverses central Lower Michigan this evening with enough instability and shear to allow isolated updrafts with weak rotation and a few lighting strikes. There is also some deeper mixing in CAA just behind the cold front that could tap about 35 to 40 knots of wind this evening.
(This evening through Monday night) Rafael is now a post tropical cyclone with the center mainly exposed.
Overnight lows should be near the lower quartile of the model spread, and the going forecast and MOS have this handled well.
* Above normal temperatures broadly continue, even on the "cooler" days in the going forecast - Normal highs are mid-upper 50s - Normal lows are mid-upper 30s * Mostly quiet conditions over the next 7+ days, one opportunity for precipitation late Tue into Wed - Widely under 0. 25" expected Stacked low pressure system responsible for the grey skies, rain, and drizzle yesterday continues to track its way into the Great Lakes Region this afternoon, currently centered over portions of central Wisconsin. Temperatures remain expected to warm a handful of degrees for Monday as weak upper level ridging and warmer mid-level temperatures slide in. This will push a cool front across the area Monday PM and subdue temperatures Tue/Wed, including potential lows near freezing over the northern CWA and highs falling back closer, but still just above, normal for mid-November.
407 PM EST Sun Nov 10 2024 Rain will decrease in coverage this evening, and end overnight behind a crossing cold front.
Another uptick is possible again toward dawn, when cooler air begins to push in. Pattern Synopsis/Pattern Forecast: Most obvious feature on regional early afternoon analysis is vertically stacked and slowly filling low pressure working its way northeast into the western Great Lakes. Low pressure will work overhead this evening, reaching Quebec by sunrise Monday. Details: Expect shower coverage to increase with time this afternoon into this evening as low pressure cuts overhead. Likely to even see some lake moisture contribution as cold air advection drops H8 level temperatures into the lower single digits. Passing cold front will usher in a much colder airmass, with temperatures likely falling through the afternoon.
259 AM CST Mon Nov 11 2024 - Gusty northwest winds today behind a cold front.
332 AM EST Mon Nov 11 2024 * Dry weather for Veterans Day with afternoon highs in the low to mid 60s. Cooler tonight with lows in the mid 30s to low 40s.
(Today) A cold front has shifted into central KY through northwest TN into central AR. Sunshine will push temperatures into the lower to middle 70s this afternoon.
Cooler with breezy westerly winds over the mountains and deserts on Monday.
1114 PM CST Sun Nov 10 2024 (This evening through Tuesday) An upper ridge continues over the western U. with an upper low over the Great Lakes. The upper ridge will build over the middle of the country Monday and Tuesday and move east of the Mississippi River late Tuesday. An upper trough moves onshore onto the west coast Monday and into the Rockies Tuesday. These showers will exit the area early this evening along with the associated cold front. High pressure will build over the state tonight and skies will clear. Low temperatures tonight will be in the low 40s to mid 50s and in the low 40s to low 50s Monday night. Highs on Monday will be in the mid 60s to mid 70s and in the lower 60s to lower 70s Tuesday.
(This evening through Monday night) The exit of system last week has left the Panhandle under a weak ridge that is producing zonal flow in the upper-levels, which should aid in giving us a break in activity for the next couple of days.
(Tonight through Tuesday night) Key Messages: - Minor coastal flooding continues through noon today High pressure will remain in place for today, with subsidence and PWATs remaining around 1-1. Temperatures will continue to be very warm, with highs in the low 80s along the coach to near 90 over the Rio Grande Plains today and Tuesday.
1146 PM CST Sun Nov 10 2024 (This evening through Monday night) Rafael is now a post tropical cyclone with the center mainly exposed. Areas that see sunshine on Monday could get into the lower 80s, or even a shade warmer, but most of the area likely to remain in the 70s.
121 AM EST Mon Nov 11 2024 - Cold front Monday afternoon passes through dry, but ushers in a brief shot of colder air for Monday night and Tuesday.
An upper low will quickly move east this afternoon, reaching Michigan this evening. This, along with strong cold air advection driving strong low-level winds, will result in a period of windy conditions as the low passes. High pressure will build into the region on Monday, bringing dry conditions and decreasing winds throughout the day. By Monday night into Tuesday, the high will shift east, with a longwave trough moving through the Rockies.
ARS Rain chances will gradually come to an end tonight as a weak cold front moves through the Mid-South. This will bring slightly cooler temperatures to the area for Monday and Tuesday.
The flat ridge aloft centered just south of the area shifts east tonight and Tuesday while a trough digs into the Four Corners.
1056 PM EST Sun Nov 10 2024 - Showers and Isolated Thunderstorms this Evening - Strong wind gusts on Monday afternoon - Mostly Mild Week With Rain Chances Wed Night and Late Weekend The isolated showers moving through the region at this time are forecast by the high res models to weaken as they move east of Lansing in the next hour or two. - Showers and Isolated Thunderstorms this Evening Upper low traverses central Lower Michigan this evening with enough instability and shear to allow isolated updrafts with weak rotation and a few lighting strikes. There is also some deeper mixing in CAA just behind the cold front that could tap about 35 to 40 knots of wind this evening.
1226 AM EST Mon Nov 11 2024 Rain will end overnight behind a last round of briefly moderate rain with the cold front.
Clouds and precipitation will prevent temperatures from budging much overnight, with lows only dropping into the lower 60s. (Monday through Tuesday night) Due to some uncertainty regarding how quickly the cold front will clear our region tomorrow morning, we have maintained a low (20-30%) POP for lingering light rain across our southeastern forecast zones. A dry WNW flow aloft along the northern edge of a subtropical ridge (spreading eastward through the Gulf of Mexico) will persist for the remainder of the short term period. Highs will return to the l-m 70s on Monday, but should be a few degrees cooler on Tuesday as lows earlier in the day will be in the m-u 40s (in a favorable environment for radiational cooling).
Currently, impacts look to be minimal due to the unorganized nature and fast movement of the trough.
Broad mid-level ridging will rebuild behind the departing trough on Tuesday across the Eastern Seaboard, further inhibiting rising motion and shower chances.
302 AM EST Mon Nov 11 2024 - Breezy conditions will accompany a cold front this afternoon with wind gusts 30 to 40 MPH - Short-lived cooler/seasonable airmass Monday evening-Tuesday, followed by slightly above average temperatures for the rest of the work week.
Slow-moving vertically-stacked low pressure is in the process of exiting eastward out of Lake Superior and Upper Michigan early this morning. Temps continue to hold mainly in the upper 40s to around 50 degrees in this neutral temp advection regime between the intial low and another rapidly deepening low pressure system poised just north of Minnesota attm. Sharp upper trough axis will quickly become a closed low early this morning.
230 AM CST Mon Nov 11 2024 - Dry today and a bit cooler with breezy northerly winds.
Rain chances will taper off this morning and clouds will clear out this afternoon as a cold front moves through. Cooler temps tonight with clear skies and northwesterly winds behind the front. At the surface, a cold front will move through the region this afternoon. Clouds will clear out this afternoon as a cold front moves through. Cooler, drier air and northwesterly winds will be over the region by this evening. Tonight will be cooler with lows in the 40s.
A secondary front will move through the region tonight, bringing in a cooler airmass for the middle of the week.
Meanwhile, an inverted trough is being carried westward across the Bahamas and towards Florida. Nebulous flow is in place through the lower and upper levels with the mid tropospheric ridge aligned northeast of the Bahamas and a zonal ridge above. Short Term Update - The high will continue to move out into the Atlantic while the inverted trough approaches South Florida. Meanwhile, a weak inverted trough is working its way westward across the Bahamas towards Florida.
1206 AM EST Mon Nov 11 2024 - Showers and Isolated Thunderstorms this Evening - Strong wind gusts on Monday afternoon - Mostly Mild Week With Rain Chances Wed Night and Late Weekend The isolated showers moving through the region at this time are forecast by the high res models to weaken as they move east of Lansing in the next hour or two. - Showers and Isolated Thunderstorms this Evening Upper low traverses central Lower Michigan this evening with enough instability and shear to allow isolated updrafts with weak rotation and a few lighting strikes. There is also some deeper mixing in CAA just behind the cold front that could tap about 35 to 40 knots of wind this evening.
325 AM EST Mon Nov 11 2024 Clouds and showers are expected ahead of a cold front that should move off the coast tonight.
1034 PM EST Sun Nov 10 2024 A cold front will push southeast across the region tonight. Weak ridging Monday morning will be followed by another cold front which will push southeast across the area during the afternoon and evening. High pressure will then build into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley on Tuesday. Conditions will trend drier and cooler. A cold front will push southeast across the region this evening into the early morning hours of Monday. Drier and cooler air will move in overnight. Lows will range from the lower 40s northwest to near 50 southeast. High temperatures range from the upper 50s in the north where cloud cover is thickest, to the low 60s in the south. This will allow temperatures to drop to lows from the lower 30s north to the mid/upper 30s south.
U/L pattern will begin with quasi-zonal flow across the CONUS with an U/L disturbance moving across the Great Lakes today and a slightly deeper trough digging along the west coast of the U. The southern extent of the westerlies extends across north Florida with a strong U/L ridge across the Gulf of Mexico and the remainder of the Florida peninsula. Pattern will begin to amplify on Tuesday as the west coast trough digs over the intermountain west inducing strong ridging downstream over Mississippi River Valley. This will also aid in pumping up the existing ridge over the Gulf of Mexico and Florida peninsula.
Next Pacific trough sweeps across well to our north on Tuesday.
Some overrunning light rain and showers will move in from the SW and over the top of the low level rain bands. (Monday through Tuesday night) Light showers are anticipated on Monday ahead of an advancing weak cold front, expected to settle across the forecast area by Tuesday. Temperatures will begin to experience a cooling trend for the beginning of the week with high temps dropping from out of the lower to mid 80s on Monday down into the upper 70s and lower 80s for most areas by Tuesday with prevailing flow shifting to become more dry and northerly by the end of the forecast period.
151 AM EST Mon Nov 11 2024 Rain will end overnight behind a last round of briefly moderate rain with the cold front.
Most areas have dried out this evening and will remain dry overnight as a low pressure system exits east. Showers will continue through the afternoon in the mountains, with a break in precipitation tonight ahead of the next deeper trough with associated cold front on Monday evening- Tuesday morning. Snow amounts have also significantly decreased, mostly thanks to the increase in snow levels due to warmer air ahead of the trough.
1239 AM EST Mon Nov 11 2024 A cold front will push southeast across the region tonight. Weak ridging Monday morning will be followed by another cold front which will push southeast across the area during the afternoon and evening. High pressure will then build into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley on Tuesday. Conditions will trend drier and cooler. A cold front will push southeast across the region this evening into the early morning hours of Monday. Drier and cooler air will move in overnight. Lows will range from the lower 40s northwest to near 50 southeast. High temperatures range from the upper 50s in the north where cloud cover is thickest, to the low 60s in the south. This will allow temperatures to drop to lows from the lower 30s north to the mid/upper 30s south.
A cold front has entered Middle Tennessee but hasn't yet made it to Nashville. Cooler temperatures are obviously on the way, but still won't get us down to seasonal normals.
1100 PM CST Sun Nov 10 2024 - Cold front to arrive tonight, bringing breezy NW winds and cooler temperatures for Monday.
1036 PM CST Sun Nov 10 2024 Updated at 1035 PM CST Sun Nov 10 2024 - Dry and warmer conditions are expected through Tuesday afternoon.
(Today through Tuesday) A cold front will continue to slowly slide through Central AL today. Cooler and drier air is expected tonight behind the front with lows dropping into the upper 40s across the north and upper 50s to low 60s in the south. We'll see this drier air persist tomorrow as high pressure and upper level ridging build into the region.
For today, another fairly mild day is forecast with zonal to slight ridging remaining aloft over the area. If the fog forms, temperatures may stay a bit warmer in the upper 30's and lower 40's for most of the area, with 20's still expected in Eastern Colorado. Tomorrow, an upper trough is forecast to swing through the Rockies and into the area. We start the pattern off with a well defined trough exiting the area to the east, being pushed by a ridge coming in from the west.
Some scattered to broken high clouds persist across southeastern Arizona in association with a decaying troughing situated offshore of the Baja Peninsula, with these clouds slowly drifting eastward throughout the day. Weak ridging continues to hang on across the Desert Southwest, resulting in temperatures at or slightly above normal for today. Cooler temperatures are anticipated beginning tomorrow, as a troughing feature currently bringing precipitation to the Pacific Northwest will traverse across western CONUS. This trough will spread mid-level negative anomalies across the region tomorrow resulting in the cooling temperatures, but no other sensible weather impacts are expected with this weather feature.
518 AM CST Mon Nov 11 2024 (Tonight through Tuesday night) Key Messages: - Minor coastal flooding continues through noon today High pressure will remain in place for today, with subsidence and PWATs remaining around 1-1. Temperatures will continue to be very warm, with highs in the low 80s along the coach to near 90 over the Rio Grande Plains today and Tuesday.
- Our next best chance of precipitation is Tuesday as a cold front moves through the region. On Tuesday, a morning cold front passage will bring breezy conditions and the chance of precipitation back to much of the area. While rain is forecast over much of the lower elevations, snow levels look to drop from 6000 ft in the morning 4,500-5,000 ft in the afternoon and evening. With this, the higher hills in southern Montana and Sheridan County, Wyoming could see some snow.
525 AM CST Mon Nov 11 2024 (Today through Tuesday Night) To begin the period, a cold front has mostly pushed south of the area clearing out fog across southeastern locations. Behind the front, mostly dry conditions will prevail as high pressure takes over the weather pattern. As mentioned above, temperatures will mostly be normal for this time of the year with highs in the lower 60s to lowers 70s. Overnight lows are expected to drop into the lower 40s to lower 50s through the period.