Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
422 PM MST Fri Nov 29 2024 Updated at 420 PM MST Fri Nov 29 2024 - Seasonal temperatures expected today - Warmer this weekend as dry and calm conditions persist Today will be the coolest day of the week as we remain on the western edge of a Canadian air mass beneath NW'LY flow aloft thanks to a large trough to our east and a building ridge to our west. This ridge will be the dominating factor for the entire forecast period.
Northwest flow continues across the CWA with H5 low pressure to the northeast and H5 ridging over the western CONUS. Cold high pressure will move into the Northern Plains tonight into Saturday morning, allowing overnight lows to fall well into the single digits to teens below zero. Winds are expected to be slightly lighter than last night; however, with cooler temperatures, wind chill values could fall well into the -20 to -30 range, possibly slightly colder. The highest probability will be around the Devils Lake Basin and possibly the northern Red River Valley.
803 PM EST Fri Nov 29 2024 Scattered snow showers will largely taper off overnight, although a few may persist in the ridges into Saturday morning. KEY MESSAGES: - Scattered snow showers mostly ending this evening, although they may persist along the ridges overnight. - Wind chills dropping into the single digits in many areas by Saturday morning, and below zero on the higher ridges. Expect this trend to continue tonight, with the ridges perhaps holding on to scattered snow showers after midnight, while snow showers largely cease elsewhere. Latest ensemble probabilities suggest >60% chance of wind chills below 0 in the higher elevations, with the highest ridge tops potentially approaching -10.
439 PM CST Fri Nov 29 2024 - Freezing fog possible along I-70 Saturday morning - Mild and dry for days and days All is quiet on the western Kansas front this afternoon. A surge of cooler air/backdoor front will move southward Saturday morning. Some moisture pooling along this boundary may set the stage for some freezing fog across the northern counties in the AM. Forecast skew-t/log-p's do show a thermo profile that is conducive for freezing fog. As such, have added freezing fog in the weather grids up north to account for this possibility. Otherwise, we will see ever so slightly cooler highs for Saturday, but still below normal for this time of year.
Upper level ridge continues to dominate the pattern. Finally, high pressure and a very stable atmosphere means little to no wind unless generated by topographic influence.
631 PM EST Fri Nov 29 2024 Chilly high pressure will move over the region will linger through the weekend.
105 PM PST Fri Nov 29 2024 High clouds will stick around the region intermittently through the weekend as a weak area of low pressure brings in subtropical moisture. WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO High clouds continue to stream in from the south and west as an area of low pressure spins off the coast, helping to funnel in these cloudier conditions.
Meanwhile, a rapidly weakening cold front is advancing southward through Central Florida. Nearshore waters have recovered since the last cold front and temperatures have been stable in the mid 70s. Short Term Update - Expect the cold front to more fully take hold of our area through the overnight period as high pressure swings into the southeast. A weak cold front will push into Keys waters tonight. (00Z TAFS) A weak cold front will bleed southward through the Keys tonight.
WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO Temperatures at 8:30 PM were running a few degrees warmer than this time yesterday. Highs on Saturday are expected to be 2 to 6 degrees warmer than today. High clouds continue to stream in from the south and west as an area of low pressure spins off the coast, helping to funnel in these cloudier conditions. More chances for sun and the light offshore flow pattern will warm the valleys up west of the mountains once again this weekend, where some spots will reach into the lower 80s. As the area of low pressure nears the California coast, the marine layer will build slightly, allowing for better chances for low cloud and fog development.
Further south, northeast winds around 5-10 mph and temperatures in the lower/mid 40s. 190 where a Freeze Warning continues for freezing temperatures for about 2-5 hours. May have some locations just outside this area reach the freezing mark, but likely will be for an hour near daybreak.
/20/ (This evening through Saturday Night) A new freeze warning will go into effect tonight, covering areas along and south of I-20 that have yet to hit the freezing mark. Because of this, I wouldn't be surprised at all is some locations in the freeze warning stay above freezing, and will eventually need to be put back in one down the line.
1118 PM CST Fri Nov 29 2024 - Freezing fog possible along I-70 Saturday morning - Mild and dry for days and days All is quiet on the western Kansas front this afternoon. A surge of cooler air/backdoor front will move southward Saturday morning. Some moisture pooling along this boundary may set the stage for some freezing fog across the northern counties in the AM. Forecast skew-t/log-p's do show a thermo profile that is conducive for freezing fog. As such, have added freezing fog in the weather grids up north to account for this possibility. Otherwise, we will see ever so slightly cooler highs for Saturday, but still below normal for this time of year.
Snow accumulations will range several inches to multiple feet through this weekend, with the highest totals north and west of Routes 28 and 30. Discussion: Longwave upper-level troughing will remain anchored over the Great Lakes and Northeast through tonight and beyond.
258 AM EST Sat Nov 30 2024 Chilly high pressure will move over the region will linger through the weekend.
- Temperatures will be generally warmer in southwest and western Nebraska, with cooler temperatures across north central Nebraska. Upper level analysis and water vapor satellite imagery reveal an upper level low over Ontario and Quebec, with slight ridging over the Intermountain West. At the surface, a low pressure system is located over southwestern South Dakota with a warm front across the Nebraska Panhandle this morning, and a secondary low pressure center over northwestern Kansas. On satellite, stratus is noted ahead of the warm front across the Sandhills and north central Nebraska. Ahead of the warm front, flurries and light snow showers will persist through the mid morning hours across north central Nebraska.
1050 PM CST Fri Nov 29 2024 (This evening through Saturday Night) A new freeze warning will go into effect tonight, covering areas along and south of I-20 that have yet to hit the freezing mark. Because of this, I wouldn't be surprised at all is some locations in the freeze warning stay above freezing, and will eventually need to be put back in one down the line.
- A weak cold front will move through the area this morning, with northerly winds following in its wake. - Highs near or slightly below normal with chilly overnight lows at or below freezing through the weekend. (Today and tonight) Water vapor imagery this morning show northwest flow aloft prevailing across the FA as upper level troughing resides across the eastern CONUS and upper level ridging sets up across the western CONUS. Overnight lows will be chilly once again below freezing, with light winds and clear skies leading to max radiational cooling across the region.
305 AM EST Sat Nov 30 2024 A broad and chilly cyclonic flow will remain over the region tonight and Saturday, bringing a few flurries or snow showers to the region, mainly over the higher terrain, through the rest of the weekend.
We should see a diminishing trend then once again by daybreak with short wave ridging temporarily moving in behind the overnight wave.
* Freezing fog will likely be present again tonight, most extensive in the Honey Lake and Martis valleys. Strong valley inversions and resultant fog development continue to be the main concern for the time being under a persistent ridge. The Honey Lake Valley remained socked in under a low stratus deck for the entire day, before widespread freezing fog redeveloped again earlier this evening. Expect freezing fog to develop once again across the Martis Valley tonight before mixing out mid-to-late morning.
Temperatures across much of the area are running 8-15 degrees cooler than yesterday this time. The low stratus clouds have been slow to clear the area, but we're finally seeing the sunshine across roughly the western half of middle Tennessee. We can definitively say that Nashville still did NOT reach freezing this morning (0. Our upper-level flow will stay out of the northwest, continuously streaming in mostly dry cold fronts.
(This afternoon through Saturday) A broad upper level trough is positioned over much the eastern CONUS, with the axis of the trough just to the east of Georgia. As the trough axis continues to move eastward, dry northwesterly upper level flow is beginning to filter into the region. At the surface, high pressure over the Mississippi River Valley is beginning to advance towards the forecast area, while the cold front that moved through the area yesterday continues to push through far south Georgia. High temperatures this afternoon are forecast to be in the upper 40s across the majority of north Georgia (with some upper 30s to low 40s in the highest elevations), and in the low to mid 50s in central Georgia. Elected to run on the lower side of guidance for dewpoints for Saturday, blending in hi-res and NBM10percent guidance.
Dry conditions and above normal temperatures are expected each day across the area with highs generally ranging between 75 and 80 degrees across the lower deserts.
- The first week of December is looking rather uneventful with potent ridging keeping things quiet. The quiet and mild weather is expected to continue well into the start of December as a large potent ridge builds over the region. The large ridge will keep any disturbance well to the north and east of the CWA.
Since lake effect snow showers will continue across our western two tiers of counties with antecedent slick road conditions and sfc temps mainly in the low to mid 20s we extended the winter wx advisory through midday as travel impacts are still occurring.
Discussion: An upper-level low remains entrenched across the Great Lakes with longwave troughing across the Eastern CONUS resulting in colder than normal conditions.
1020 PM MST Fri Nov 29 2024 Updated at 1015 PM MST Fri Nov 29 2024 - Seasonal temperatures expected today - Warmer this weekend as dry and calm conditions persist Today will be the coolest day of the week as we remain on the western edge of a Canadian air mass beneath NW'LY flow aloft thanks to a large trough to our east and a building ridge to our west. This ridge will be the dominating factor for the entire forecast period.
300 AM CST Sat Nov 30 2024 NW flow will keep continental polar air locked over the region in the near term with broad longwave troughing over the east CONUS. Widespread freezing temperatures are anticipated again tonight with little to no change in airmass.
1216 AM EST Sat Nov 30 2024 Broad high pressure remains over the region through mid week. Temps will dip into the teens and lower 20s across the NC mountains, falling into the lower to mid 20s elsewhere. Gusty winds return on Saturday, mainly across the mountains, but can't entirely rule out some brief gusts east of the mountains with a lee trough expected to develop.
Early morning IR satellite imagery is showing a band of stratus clouds draped across the Florida Peninsula and eastern Gulf of Mexico in the wake of the recent cold front that is now moving into southern Florida.
Broad cyclonic flow continues over southern New England, between a low pressure over eastern Canada and a high pressure centered over the southeast USA. While we will be a little colder today, we will also just a little bit dryer in the lower levels, at least for the morning.
331 AM EST Sat Nov 30 2024 A series of dry cold fronts will move through the area over the next couple of days.
(Today and tonight) Features that are influencing our weather: high pressure over the West Coast and a deep upper-level low off the California/Mexico border. The building high pressure will kickoff a slight warming trend while the deep upper-level low will allow for the advection of mid-level moisture from the south which will materialize in two ways: virga and colorful sunrises/sunsets. Model soundings forecast the mid-levels becoming saturated with a dry slot present in the low- levels.
1233 AM EST Sat Nov 30 2024 Chilly high pressure will move over the region will linger through the weekend.
The upper-level ridge axis remains positioned to the west along the Pacific Northwest Coast this evening, maintaining weak northwesterly flow and bringing an increase in high clouds across the forecast area. However, dense fog will develop after midnight and persist until around noon in some of the higher valleys in the mountains, including around KMYL.
(Today and tonight) A broad trough will continue moving across the Midwest through the next 24 hours. We will see slightly warmer temperatures today. In fact, this morning's temperature readings [as of 445 AM] are a few degrees above freezing. Highs today will be in the low to middle 60s.
The cold front has pushed southward through the Keys during the last couple of hours as expected, marked by a definite increase in NNE winds. Temps along the Keys are in the lower to mid 70s, with dewpoints in the upper 60s to near 70, and winds on land from the N/NE at 10 to 15 mph. Surface analysis depicts the aforementioned front extending from the western Atlantic to the southern Gulf of Mexico, with a large continental high pressure area centered over the Plains states and extending eastward to the Mid Atlantic region. Aloft, a deep closed low is centered near James Bay, anchoring a broad trough over the eastern CONUS. This trough has displaced the subtropical ridge axis south of the Keys at all levels.
The persistent pressure gradient between low pressure in Newfoundland and high pressure across the central/southeastern US continues to generate gusty west-southwest winds in Central PA. The competing effects of mostly clear skies and gusty winds have kept temperatures pretty close to guidance and lows by daybreak will range from the teens in the Laurels & northern mountains to mid 20s in the Lower Susquehanna Valley.
558 AM CST Sat Nov 30 2024 (Today through Sunday) Longwave troughing will persist across much of the eastern CONUS through tomorrow which coincides with a westerly flow aloft becoming northwesterly by Sunday night. Either way, high pressure stays in control in our region and a Polar air mass will dictate stable, cold weather through the weekend. Forecast highs today are generally in the 50s outside of some cooler terrain areas in our northeast counties which may only find the upper 40s.
926 AM EST Sat Nov 30 2024 A series of dry cold fronts will move through the area over the next couple of days.
High pressure is ridged from Saskatchewan and through the Dakotas and into central Iowa early this morning. Low pressure that is lifting into Kansas is lifting some limited moisture as far northeast as the southwest corner of Iowa as a wave of theta-e advection passes over that area. It is in that portion of the state where the highest temperatures and dew points reside.
- The first week of December is looking rather uneventful with potent ridging keeping things quiet. The quiet and mild weather is expected to continue well into the start of December as a large potent ridge builds over the region. The large ridge will keep any disturbance well to the north and east of the CWA. Scattered to broken upper level clouds throughout due to spilling over the ridge to the west and northwest flow aloft.
High temperatures remain below average today, then warm to near average on Sunday with low temperatures tonight a bit warmer than this morning.
721 AM EST Sat Nov 30 2024 Early morning IR satellite imagery is showing a band of stratus clouds draped across the Florida Peninsula and eastern Gulf of Mexico in the wake of the recent cold front that is now moving into southern Florida.
Rex block near 130W is continuing to maintain an upper level blocking pattern off the western CONUS coast which will keep our area dry this weekend. Some high level clouds area being pushed through our CWFA by the upper low at the bottom of the rex block near 30N/130W. The SREF is showing the rex block shifting east toward the coast today and inland on Sunday which will maintain dry weather across our area along with above normal temperatures from Sunday onward as the upper ridge strengthens and the upper low underneath it weakens.
434 AM MST Sat Nov 30 2024 - Mostly sunny skies with cooler than normal temperatures expected this weekend. In any event, expect sun will again burn the low clouds off during the morning.
Southerly winds out ahead of the low will allow for increased moisture transport and WAA. An area of baroclinicity out ahead of the low coupled with broadscale ascent and increased moisture will give us a chance for light to moderate snow this morning into the evening. Probabilistic ensembles are showing a 50%-70% chance of snow accumulations greater than one inch across central MO with the higher end of that range over areas close to Marshall, Boonville, and Moberly. Expect a mostly cloudy day with high temperatures today ranging from the low 30s for northern MO and mid 30s to mid 40s for areas south of I-70. As clouds clear out with colder, drier air filtering through the area radiational cooling will allow temperatures to drop into the low to mid teens tomorrow morning.
505 AM CST Sat Nov 30 2024 (Tonight through Sunday) South Texas will reside on the southwestern periphery of weakening high pressure centered over the SE US today which will support generally light to moderate northeasterly flow as the surface.
High pressure will maintain quiet and dry weather across the forecast area, with colder temperatures persisting through today. Today through Sunday night Quiet and dry weather conditions expected for today as a ridge of high pressure will slowly build across northern and central Nevada. Daytime highs will be in the low to mid 40s with overnight lows ranging from the teens to 20s. Heading into Sunday, the ridge strengthens over the western U. Ensembles suggest this ridge will be undercut by an area of low pressure late this weekend, with the ridge axis shifting directly overhead.
WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO Scattered high clouds continue to move over the region this morning ahead of an upper level closed low well off the coast of Southern California. Only subtle changes for Sunday as the upper level high begins to approach CA, weakening and becoming an open wave as it does so, and the upper ridge shifts slightly eastward.
(Today through Sunday) Very large upper trough over the CONUS will move to the eastern half of the nation and take up residence there.
A Freeze Warning remains in effect through this morning with much of the forecast area already seeing temperatures near or below freezing. The only locations that will likely escape freezing temperatures would be on the immediate coast/beaches where middle 30's are expected.
518 AM CST Sat Nov 30 2024 NW flow will keep continental polar air locked over the region in the near term with broad longwave troughing over the east CONUS. Widespread freezing temperatures are anticipated again tonight with little to no change in airmass.
(Rest of Today) High pressure was centered over the ArkLaMiss region this morning and will shift east into TN and AL today. And with little or no wind as the high moves overhead, an overall pleasant weather day is ahead.
Air temps remain above freezing south of the boundary and are below freezing to the north. Sfc winds will remain ENE bringing rather dry air into the area which will act to keep wet bulb temps at or below freezing for most spots this morning. Early this morning through 9am low level forcing in the 925-850mb level may act to produce scattered showers south of the front where air temps are above freezing however dry air may help cool temps to near or below freezing so there is a scenario of some scattered rain/freezing rain showers for a few hours early this morning.
Northerly to northeasterly winds will continue to funnel cooler and drier air overhead, and dry conditions are expected. We opted to keep the freeze watch instead of upgrading to a warning at this point despite fairly high confidence because we want to see which counties reach freezing this morning and therefore will be discontinued from subsequent freeze products. Once we figure out which area(s) have reached freezing, those can be excluded from a freeze warning tonight.
A few locations have dropped to or just below freezing mainly in outlying areas to the north and east of the Metroplex where winds have gone calm. This will continue on and off through much of Saturday, otherwise it will be quiet with high temperatures in the lower 60s. A fast moving disturbance will swing through the Central Plains late Saturday and send a very weak cold front southward into North Texas. Quiet conditions are expected on Sunday with highs again in the lower 60s. Overnight lows will range in the low 30s to mid 40s across North Texas, with Central Texas ranging in the upper 40s to mid 50s.
638 AM EST Sat Nov 30 2024 A series of dry cold fronts will move through the area over the next couple of days.
401 AM MST Sat Nov 30 2024 - Freezing fog has developed over portions of northwest Kansas, prompting the issuance of a Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CT for the eastern half of the CWA. Caution is highly advised while traveling this morning as slick spots on bridges or other elevated surfaces may form.
508 AM CST Sat Nov 30 2024 - A weak cold front will move through the area this morning, with northerly winds following in its wake. - Highs near or slightly below normal with chilly overnight lows at or below freezing through the weekend. (Today and tonight) Water vapor imagery this morning show northwest flow aloft prevailing across the FA as upper level troughing resides across the eastern CONUS and upper level ridging sets up across the western CONUS. Overnight lows will be chilly once again below freezing, with light winds and clear skies leading to max radiational cooling across the region.
345 AM MST Sat Nov 30 2024 - Mostly sunny skies with cooler than normal temperatures expected this weekend. In any event, expect sun will again burn the low clouds off during the morning.
Temperature spread between long- and short-term guidance is quite large for Saturday temps, with NBM being a couple degrees warmer than others (including but not limited to NAM, GFS, Euro, HRRR).
701 AM EST Sat Nov 30 2024 (Today through Sunday) A cold front moving through South Florida early this morning will continue to move southward into the Florida Keys today, as high pressure quickly moves east through the Southeastern United States. On Sunday, the high will continue to move quickly to the east into the Atlantic waters from the Southeastern United States. This will allow for another stronger cold front to move southward down the Florida Peninsula and through South Florida Sunday night. This front will again be a dry cold front with little to no rainfall associated with it.
This should significantly reduce the winds in the lower to mid foothills, with a slower decrease over the higher elevations during the day today. This would limit the highs today, except the overnight winds have kept strong inversions from forming so we'll have a warmer start. For Tue and Wed, a weak upper level trough will be over California with an upper level ridge building into the area. By Thu, the weak upper level trough over California will move into the swrn US with weak NW flow aloft across the area.
643 AM MST Sat Nov 30 2024 - Freezing fog has developed over portions of northwest Kansas, prompting the issuance of a Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CT for the eastern half of the CWA. Caution is highly advised while traveling this morning as slick spots on bridges or other elevated surfaces may form.