Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Cooler highs expected tomorrow. Warmer days forecast for the rest of the week.
1110 PM MDT Tue Sep 23 2025 - A cold front and Pacific storm system will bring much cooler temperatures and unsettled weather Tuesday. - A Freeze Warning is in effect for the high valleys west of the Laramie Range Wednesday morning. Freezing temperatures and frost possible.
1244 AM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025 Cooler highs expected tomorrow. Warmer days forecast for the rest of the week.
Water vapour loop had upper ridge poking into the northern plains. Upper/thermal ridge builds into the area today/Thursday.
Issued 403 AM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025 Today through Thursday: Low clouds continue to push in from the northeast early this morning along with the arrival of cooler temps aloft. The clouds and cooler conditions will result in highs in the upper 60s to around 70 today, around normal for late September. There could be an isolated shower or two in the east today into early Thursday, as an upper level low drops southward across Lake Michigan. Kept precip chances on the low end though, given these marginal delta Ts along with the mean low level flow becoming more northerly than northeast as the colder temps aloft move in. High temps will be a little milder in the low to mid 70s.
This activity will diminish with sunset, and clearing skies should allow temperatures to dip into the low 50s and even upper 40s by Thursday morning. Ridging will dominate the central CONUS starting on Thursday.
The main question with this forecast package is how much rain will fall before the trough sweeps through our area late Thursday.
(Today through Thursday) Significant changes to the weather forthcoming over the next 24 to 36 hours, as large upper level trough becomes established across the eastern half of the CONUS, which helps push surface cold front through the southeast states.
748 AM EDT Wed Sep 24 2025 A stationary front remains over the area as a low pressure system moves northeast along this front through tonight.
734 AM EDT Wed Sep 24 2025 A frontal boundary remains stalled across the region today and into tonight before lifting northward as a warm front late tonight into early Thursday.
- Scattered thunderstorms possible Wednesday afternoon with passage of upper level trough. (Today) Potential for severe weather has largely ended this evening, though clusters of elevated convection will continue through tonight from northwest AR into southeast OK ahead of Pacific cold front. Additional scattered showers and thunderstorms are anticipated Wed afternoon into the evening generally north of I-40, as pocket of colder temps aloft associated with the upper trough moves across the area.
Broad upper level clouds will remain over the area through day break keeping minimum temperatures in the low 60s south of I-88. The previously mentioned short wave will continue to phase with the upper level low over the Great Lakes and swing eastward through the day. An additional slug of mid level moisture will move down the lake this evening, with a cooler air mass near 10C at 850 mb.
Water vapor imagery and RAP analysis show the mid/upper trough over the Central High Plains early this morning. Below normal temperatures will prevail again today with highs generally in the low to mid 70s.
KEY MESSAGES: - Marginal flood threat - Rain and thunderstorm chances continue Thursday ---------------------------------------------------------------- Rain chances will persist into Thursday under deep southwest flow as the upper low meanders over the Great Lakes.
GOES 19 water vapor imagery shows a compact upper low rotating over western KS and another wave dropping south out of central WI. the aforementioned upper low over KS to slide east across MO, with better lift and moisture remaining to our southeast. clearing skies and BL decoupling will allow temps to drop into the lower 50s.
332 AM MDT Wed Sep 24 2025 - Turning warmer and drier again for the rest of the week.
638 AM EDT Wed Sep 24 2025 A nearly stationary front will push back northward tonight as a warm front bringing another round of rain.
Early this morning, some wrap-around rain showers were ongoing across the plains associated with a positively leaning partially closed low over central KS. Quite a bit of clouds were noted over the lower elevations east of the mtns associated with this trough.
510 AM MDT Wed Sep 24 2025 - Warmer and drier conditions move in for the next couple of days before moisture increases from south to north throughout the weekend. High pressure will be settling over the Intermountain West today. separating a closed low off the Cali coast and a large trough East of the Rockies. A weak blocking ridge sets up over the Rockies Thursday, with much of the CONUS cutoff from the polar jet rippling across the Canadian Border. A weak cutoff low over SOCAL pushes against the ridge to no avail.
TODAY & TONIGHT: The seasonally warm conditions continue! Taking a look across the area, a quiet night continue as temperatures continue their gradual descent into the low to mid 50s to start the morning. From here, could see a few diurnally driven sprinkles develop along and east of I-29 as some weak lift rotates off the backside of a positively tilted trough centered over the Great Lakes region. Otherwise, should see temperatures peak in the mid to upper 70s and low 80s during the day with a gradual descent into the low to mid 50s overnight. THURSDAY ONWARDS: Looking into the latter parts of the week, mid- level ridging moves in to reset our pattern aloft returning us to quasi-zonal flow aloft. Increasing subsidence with the predominantly ridging pattern aloft should help keep us mostly dry moving forward.
- A cold front will push through the region Wednesday evening into Thursday accompanied by scattered showers and thunderstorms. Drier and somewhat cooler air will filter into the region Thursday evening through the weekend.
It appears storms will organize ahead of the surface cold front along the MS River during the early afternoon, and then the convective system should track steadily eastward across MS during the mid/late afternoon into the early evening.
745 AM EDT Wed Sep 24 2025 (Today through Thursday) Weak high pressure over the northeast Gulf will remain in control through Thursday, with light E/NE winds across the local area. Convection today and Thursday will be primarily sea- breeze driven during the afternoon and early evening hours, with the highest PoPs each day over the interior and SW FL.
611 AM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025 Updated at 608 AM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025 - Another round of strong to severe storms is forecast for this afternoon, mainly along and east of the Mississippi River, ahead of an approaching cold front. - A cold front will bring drier and much cooler air for the end of the week, with pleasant conditions expected for the weekend.
512 AM MDT Wed Sep 24 2025 - Turning warmer and drier again for the rest of the week.
Upper air analysis and water vapor imagery this afternoon is depicting several circulations over the upper Midwest, an upper low over Lk Superior and second elongated area of low pressure from Iowa wwd to the Rockies. After any lingering fog, high pressure is expected to build into the region from the west. By this point, the upper low should have shifted far enough east to place us in a mostly subsident upper flow regime. Surface and upper ridging will develop across the central CONUS by late week.
A positively tilted upper-level trough continues to move out of SD during the day today as an upper-level ridge over the western US starts to move east towards the state. With an upper-level ridge starting to move east towards the area, lower-level dry air starts to move in. The higher pressure and dry air helps to keep things dry by decreasing the chances for rain and storms today and Thursday. Additionally, some low-level warm air starts to advect into central and northeastern SD Wednesday evening into Thursday, which will help to increase temperatures to be 5 to 15 degrees warmer than normal for this time of the year, in the upper 70s to lower 80s.
- Drier and slightly cooler conditions expected today and Thursday before temperatures warm back above average by this weekend. The main upper trough can be seen digging southward across eastern Colorado and western Kansas and will provide forcing for additional rain chances across mainly western and northern Oklahoma this morning, becoming more isolated by this afternoon. Temperatures will be cooler today behind the front, with highs in the mid to upper 70s for much of the area, with low 80s expected near the Red River. Drier air filtering into the region will also allow for cooler lows tonight, with readings dipping into the 50s in most locations.
Pattern Synopsis and Forecast: Current satellite imagery continues to show the picturesque upper low spinning near the Straits as of ~05Z. Secondary short wave/upper feature in Wisconsin is orbiting this parent trough closer to home like the planets around the Sun (Sun being the trough near the Straits). Within the vicinity of the center of this upper low/Sun will drive our showers through the short term period. Primary Forecast Concerns: Shower potential will revolve around the center of the upper low pressure system today.
Upper level trough persists from the western Great Lakes through the central plains. The upper level trough and surface front will continue to slow progress through the area today. Cloud cover and precipitation will keep high temperatures in the low to mid 70s. The trough should continue pushing through the remainder of the CWA on Thursday with any residual showers in the far eastern CWA ending. Clearing should take place from west to east as drier air moves into the area behind the trough. Temperatures will gradually warm back into the low to mid 80s as upper ridging builds back into the area.
The upper low finally starts to open some and eventually slide through our longitude Thurs night. That threat will be more in the E vs W, esp in the Lower Susq. 20 PoPs should be fine for now for Fri-Sat, esp considering the high uncertainty with how much Atlantic moisture can get into PA. Split flow to higher amplitude blocking solutions are possible outcomes to add to the high uncertainty/complexity along with 1 or 2 tropical systems off the Carolina/Southeast coast to factor into the mix. This transition favors the return of warmer than climo max temps/daytime highs and cooler nights closer to the historical average.
This morning, a closed upper low continues to spin over the central Great Lakes region with long wave troughing extending southwest across the central Great Plains.
- Drier this weekend in the wake of an upper trough/sfc front - Upper trough/low over southeast CONUS midweek could cut off along the coast, and could bring a return of small (<20%) rain chances, particularly east of I-55. By mid week, an upper trough/low over the southeast CONUS could cut off and meander near the coast.
- Drier & cooler air mass will stay in place through Thursday.
Temperatures will cool into the low and middle 40s over east- central Colorado to the upper 40s and low 50s over the remainder of the area. Mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies are forecast Thursday with high temperatures trending a few degrees warmer, from the upper 70s to low 80s.
Otherwise dry and quiet today as a high pressure system sits over the region with winds remaining light. A positively tilted upper-level trough continues to move out of SD during the day today as an upper-level ridge over the western US starts to move east towards the state. With an upper-level ridge starting to move east towards the area, lower-level dry air starts to move in. The higher pressure and dry air helps to keep things dry by decreasing the chances for rain and storms today and Thursday. Additionally, some low-level warm air starts to advect into central and northeastern SD Wednesday evening into Thursday, which will help to increase temperatures to be 5 to 15 degrees warmer than normal for this time of the year, in the upper 70s to lower 80s.
High pressure will return partly to mostly sunny conditions this weekend while attention then turns toward a couple of tropical systems moving north along the East Coast. Rain chances will increas through this afternoon and tonight as a warm front lifts into the region by Thursday morning. This is also the area where the highest axis of anomalous moisture is depicted with PW anomalies around 2 SD.
The main features weather wise are a couple of weak cold fronts that move through the forecast area. The cold front passage will result in a wind shift to the north to northeast by daytime Thursday, with some cooler temperatures most areas, moreso in the north though.
1136 AM EDT Wed Sep 24 2025 A frontal boundary remains stalled across the region today and into tonight before lifting northward as a warm front late tonight into early Thursday.
137 PM EDT Wed Sep 24 2025 A stationary front remains over the area as a low pressure system moves northeast along this front through tonight.
154 PM EDT Wed Sep 24 2025 A nearly stationary front will push back northward tonight as a warm front bringing another round of rain.
130 PM MDT Wed Sep 24 2025 - Warmer and dry for the rest of the week.
235 PM EDT Wed Sep 24 2025 A warm front will push north through the area tonight bringing much needed rain shower activity. Tomorrow a low pressure system will push through area bringing more widespread beneficial rain with some areas receiving the first substantial wetting rains in a month.
246 PM MDT Wed Sep 24 2025 - A ridge of high pressure aloft will lead to drier and warmer weather for Thursday through the weekend. Quiet weather is expected through the short term as we see high pressure controlling the region through the period, keeping precipitation nil and temperatures back on the rise on Thursday. Benign conditions persist tonight, and with clear skies again another chance of some freezing conditions is possible, but at this time the bulk of this should be confined to the high terrain around the Snowy and Sierra Madre ranges, with some cooler air perhaps as low as the adjacent valleys but at this time not widespread enough to warrant a freeze warning.
A nearly stationary upper level low remains centered over the Straits of Mackinac this afternoon, embedded within a longwave trough which extends southwest to the Ozarks. Visible satellite imagery shows abundant cloud cover over the eastern half of the UP in association with the low, with mostly sunny skies west of a line from Marquette to Iron Mountain. Quiet weather continues into tonight, with clear skies allowing temperatures to drop into the low 40s across the west while the eastern half mostly stays in the upper 40s to low 50s. This will allow temperatures to climb into the low to mid 70s across the area, with the warmest temps over the west. A cold front will cross the area Thursday night as the first in a series of vigorous low pressure systems treks across northern Canada into Hudson Bay.
An upper level long wave trough axis extending southwestward from a closed upper low over the Great Lakes remains near the Illinois River Valley, promoting a few continued sprinkles or light showers southeast of this axis. 37 This morning, a closed upper low continues to spin over the central Great Lakes region with long wave troughing extending southwest across the central Great Plains.
Mid-level troughing over the Great Lakes is evident on GOES water vapor imagery this afternoon. Isolated showers will be possible for the remainder of the afternoon and evening as the mid-level trough continues to depart to the southeast. Highs are progged to read well above average throughout the forecast period as thermal ridging establishes itself east of the Rockies. Temperatures will read solidly in the mid to upper 70s during this time, with a chance to hit the low 80s at a few locations sprinkled throughout.
Currently the H5 level features a low over the Great Lakes region with troughing extending down to over Texas. Meanwhile, a cold front with mainly a drier air mass behind is currently pushing southward across Central Texas and is expected to stall somewhere across our CWA overnight tonight.
As the MCS over AR/LA/MS drops southeast this evening, additional showers and a few thunderstorms will develop in advance of the upper trough dropping into the lower MO Valley through the Red River Valley. Locally excessive rainfall may be more of a risk later today into this evening given the high PWs and ongoing rainfall producing saturated soils in some locations.
- Much-needed rain returns over the next 48 hours ahead of a cold front.
-Elevated rain chances across the CWA on Thursday due to a cold front pushing into the region. A cold front moving south into central Texas today will push into northern portions of the Ranchlands late tonight with showers and thunderstorms developing ahead of the boundary this evening and overnight.
- Widespread showers and storms expected across the higher terrain this weekend along with a threat for flash flooding. Isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to continue south of I-10 through the evening, mainly from the Davis Mountains to the Lower Trans-Pecos (20-40% chances). Likewise, tomorrow's temperatures are also expected to be seasonable, albeit a couple of degrees warmer than today (highs in the low-to-mid 80s).
1142 AM MDT Wed Sep 24 2025 - Turning warmer and drier again for the rest of the week.
- Drier air and slightly cooler temperatures prevail into the end of the week behind the front. Large scale lift will continue to increase today as a mid/upper trough digs southward into the region. In addition, a cold front will push through the area, enhancing LL convergence.
141 PM MDT Wed Sep 24 2025 - Dry with above normal temperatures through the period - Elevated fire weather conditions at times Upper air models show ridge building into the northern plains today as upper low moves over the Great Lakes region.
Not anticipating any widespread dense fog formation as the low level dry air will tend to offset the overall radiational cooling aspects.
More sunshine in southwestern to far southern Wisconsin may allow for temperatures in the lower 70s. This band will move offshore into Thursday morning as low pressure in the Ohio Valley propagates farther east, with dry conditions and clearing skies expected through Thursday. High temperatures in the low to mid 70s on Thursday, with northwesterly breezes throughout the day. High pressure and plenty of sunshine are expected. Overnight Thursday, winds again become light and variable with lows in the lower 50s (upper 50s to lower 60s near Lake Michigan).
249 PM EDT Wed Sep 24 2025 Updated at 245 PM EDT Wed Sep 24 2025 - A cold front will bring showers and thunderstorms each day through the weekend. - Cooler temperatures, near seasonal normals, expected behind the cold front, starting tomorrow. Temperatures will cool off with the arrival of the cold front, which will bring the high temperature tomorrow back down to near-normal levels, in the low 70s to low 90s across northern and central Georgia.
1108 AM MDT Wed Sep 24 2025 - Warmer and drier conditions move in for the next couple of days before moisture increases from south to north throughout the weekend. High pressure will be settling over the Intermountain West today. separating a closed low off the Cali coast and a large trough East of the Rockies. A weak blocking ridge sets up over the Rockies Thursday, with much of the CONUS cutoff from the polar jet rippling across the Canadian Border. A weak cutoff low over SOCAL pushes against the ridge to no avail.
- A cold front will push through the region this evening into Thursday accompanied by scattered showers and thunderstorms. Drier and somewhat cooler air will filter into the region Thursday evening through the weekend. A cold front is currently located in north Louisiana and is moving south. Aloft, the center of low pressure is located over Nebraska and will be moving east. In addition, the freezing level on the 00Z sounding was over 17 kft, which will support warm rain and high rain rates over our area.
235 PM EDT Wed Sep 24 2025 A mid/upper-level trough or closed low will spread over the southeastern U. through the end of the week into the weekend while at the surface, the Atlantic ridge axis currently extending over the central peninsula will weaken and shift southward as a frontal boundary moves into north Florida.
00 inches across the CWA, with the highest amounts in the SW. Going into Thursday, scattered showers and thunderstorms remain over Middle TN as our upper trough and associated surface front slowly swings through. (Thursday Night through next Wednesday) Drying begins to take place Thursday night as our upper trough shifts off to the east. Some low chances for isolated showers will be possible through the weekend, but mainly limited to east of I-65, as some energy lags behind the upper trough.
- A ridge settles in heading into the weekend with dry conditions expected. Satellite shows a sharp, negatively-tilted trough over the Central Plains this afternoon. Temperatures are in the upper 70s as of 2 PM and may touch the low 80s briefly by 5 PM. A broad upper-level ridging pattern is setting up across the Central CONUS leading to a stretch of dry, mild weather. This stretch is only extended by the replacement of the ridge by another broad upper-level ridge over the weekend.
This activity is expected to persist through the pre-dawn hours before the approach of the parent upper trough shifts forcing and likely reduces precip coverage for a period. Clouds may start to break up in the late morning and afternoon allowing for a little destabilization during the day today before the upper trough and associated cold front approach from the northwest. The initial upper pattern brings broad surface ridging behind the front. The GFS is a little more forceful in keeping a more blocked pattern setup and keeping low level moisture at bay where the ECMWF creeps a little bit more moisture in under a stalled cut-off low. However, scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will develop along a passing cold front, which will create isolated periods of heavy thunderstorm activity through early tonight.
Warm and dry through Thursday with upper level high pressure directly overhead.
- Cooler temperatures and dry weather late this week and this weekend. (This evening through Thursday) The cold front has moved to the south of our forecast area today. The cold front and dense cloud cover has kept temperatures around 15 to 25 degrees cooler this afternoon compared to yesterday at this time.
- Drier this weekend in the wake of an upper trough/sfc front - Upper trough/low over southeast CONUS midweek could cut off along the coast, and could bring a return of small (<20%) rain chances, particularly east of I-55. By mid week, an upper trough/low over the southeast CONUS could cut off and meander near the coast. Tough to say what category this low level stratus will settle in to so plan for IFR/MVFR conditions at the moment.
With the upper low being analyzed a bit further east than originally thought the lake induced instability does not seem to be as impressive as guidance suggested yesterday so suspect coverage of lake effect showers will be rather spotty. Though, the breezy northwest winds will keep temperatures on the more seasonable side with highs in the low to mid-70s.
An upper trough moves east over the Southeast, organizing into a closed upper system as it passes.
The greatest risk may also be south of the TN River within the higher plume of instability. Additional thunderstorms and showers may develop further north of this activity this evening in advanced of the upper trough. As the MCS over AR/LA/MS drops southeast this evening, additional showers and a few thunderstorms will develop in advance of the upper trough dropping into the lower MO Valley through the Red River Valley. Locally excessive rainfall may be more of a risk later today into this evening given the high PWs and ongoing rainfall producing saturated soils in some locations.