Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Showers and storm chances will move along a cold front which is expected to reach the MN/IA border by this evening. With available synoptic forcing along the western periphery of the upper-level trough and position of the surface front, PoPs are reflective of isolated to scattered showers and storms for much of today. High pressure returns in wake of the departing low with northerly flow and mostly sunny skies.
mainly associated with a 925-mb to 850-mb wind shift boundary within the area of the 700-mb trof axis. the surface frontal boundary is progged to remain near the Red River while the 700-mb trof axis continues to hold southwest to northeast across the CWA.
Warmer and drier conditions return this weekend as high pressure builds over the area.
Water vapor imagery shows a positively tilted trough over the east- central CONUS. Closer to the surface, weak high pressure has dominated the region. Otherwise, temperatures on Tuesday will be slightly below normal for the end of July with highs in the low to upper 80s. MMG/Carney By Wednesday, the upper trough over the Great Lakes Region will slowly move east and favor weak height rises across the Mid- Mississippi River Valley. A weak cold front is forecast to trek through the CWA late Wednesday afternoon and into the evening. This cold front will be the focus for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms. If the cold front moves through earlier (in the afternoon), instability will greater with the help of daytime heating.
PoP 50-60 percent areawide today, with the highest chances occurring across the interior, with the sea breeze collision forecast to occur around Lake county or more on the west side of Florida later this afternoon into this evening. Hot and humid conditions continuing today, with afternoon highs in the low 90s and peak heat indices ranging between 103-107 degrees. Generally favorable boating conditions persist, as the Atlantic ridge axis drifts north of the local area into early this weekend.
Southeasterly flow will feature in the low-levels rotating around the Bermuda High.
- Drier today, with isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms across the higher terrain.
Otherwise, highs are forecast to reach the low 80s with heat indices in the upper 80s to low 90s.
724 AM EDT Tue Jul 23 2024 (Today through Wednesday) The northern extent of a tropical wave and a mid-level area of low pressure approach the region from the Bahamas over the next couple of days. On Wednesday, The tropical wave will continue to move northwest and away from Florida, as the ridge of high pressure over the Western Atlantic waters builds into the Florida Peninsula. High temperatures will reach the lower 90s across the area each day with heat index values flirting with Heat Advisory criteria.
623 AM EDT Tue Jul 23 2024 Weak mid level disturbances will ripple through a slow moving large scale mid level trough, keeping the threat of showers and thunderstorms in the forecast into mid week.
High pressure centered over the southwestern U. However, warmer temps tonight means that the heat risk will slide into advisory levels for Wednesday.
The 23/00z upper air 500 mb plot had the high centered between Vegas and LA with N/NE flow over the forecast area with little change expected over the next several days.
Deep south-southwesterly flow in place across the region, brought on by a weak and broad upper trough over the south central US and a ridge axis draped across the northern Gulf that is associated with high pressure over the Atlantic. With daytime heating and forcing from upper impulses moving overhead, diurnally driven showers and storms will develop today, with the highest coverage expected across our northwest zones.
626 AM CDT Tue Jul 23 2024 (Today through Wednesday night) A pretty quiet short term as high pressure over the Four Corners strengthens. With the upper trough exiting to the east today the height will rise and warmer air will move over the area. Given the ridge continues to build in strength, tomorrow will be even warmer with highs in the mid 90s to near 100 in a couple of the typical hot spots.
(Today through Wednesday night) A pretty quiet short term as high pressure over the Four Corners strengthens. With the upper trough exiting to the east today the height will rise and warmer air will move over the area. Given the ridge continues to build in strength, tomorrow will be even warmer with highs in the mid 90s to near 100 in a couple of the typical hot spots.
Monsoonal moisture will continue to be recycled under the ridge resulting in continued chances for afternoon showers and thunderstorms through late week. Temperatures will remain hotter than normal as the ridge remains positioned overhead.
Behind this wave, a broad, expansive ridge is building back in across the region and is maintaining east to southeast winds this morning.
Cooler temperatures begin today and through the period 2. Breezy conditions return with bulk of the system Wednesday Models are in firm agreement with an upper level low making its way into the PacNW shifting the ridge off towards the east. As the low continues to push onshore, southwesterly flow aloft will bring in cooler temperatures over the next few days. NBM shows temperatures to be roughly 5 degrees cooler than yesterday with 62% of the raw ensembles showing the Basin to have temperatures in the low to mid 90s, 55% showing the Pendleton area to be in the upper 80s to low 90s as well as the Gorge and central OR.
The stagnant weather pattern continues today as the FA remains in between troughing to the north and west and ridging to the south and east. The stagnant pattern means temperatures don't change much either with forecast highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s and lows in the lower to mid 70s. The region will remain within a deep/moist southwest flow between strong ridging over the western Atlantic, and a deep upper trough to the west. At the surface, lee side troughing and an active sea breeze will enhance surface convergence over parts of the area. 5 inches, combined with forcing aloft from short waves shifting across the area along the eastern periphery of the trough, will lead to numerous to widespread showers and thunderstorms.
620 AM CDT Tue Jul 23 2024 (Today and tonight) Warmer and drier conditions can be expected from today through the rest of the week. The upper level ridge over the southwestern US will continue to be suppressed by a large trough moving into the northwestern US. However, this ridge will shift more eastward resulting in rising heights over West Texas. This will bring warmer temperatures this afternoon but still slightly below seasonal averages. A cumulus field will likely develop today given the warmer temperatures but much drier air aloft will exist in addition to a minimum in near surface theta-e values.
(This afternoon through Wednesday night) A much quieter day is underway with the stalled front now shoved all the way down into Mexico and the upper trough starting to lift out of the southern Plains. High temperatures rebound considerably compared to yesterday with plenty of sunshine and many sites have warmed into the low 80s. Upper ridging off to our west builds stronger and a bit further east heading into tomorrow. Temperatures warm up another 10 or so degrees compared to today, topping out in the low to mid 90s for most.
155 PM EDT Tue Jul 23 2024 High pressure will persist across the Atlantic while weak low pressure lingers across the Southeast. Virtually no changes in the synoptic pattern with deep Bermuda high pressure offshore through the rest of the week.
(Through Tonight) Weak forcing from the combination of a decrepit mid-level trough overhead and a subtle quasi-stationary frontal boundary draped across southeast OK and northwest AR will continue to produce spotty hit-and-miss showers and storms, especially in the vicinity of the frontal boundary, through the remainder of the afternoon and into this evening. The most probably locations of fog development will be near and east of the weak frontal boundary and across the higher terrain in far northwest AR and southeast OK. Mejia (Wednesday through Tuesday) Persistent upper-level troughing will help maintain near to slightly below average temperatures through the remainder of the workweek and even into the upcoming weekend. Weak mid/upper-level forcing will support (mostly) diurnally-driven isolated showers and thunderstorms each afternoon, with best chances (20-30%) occurring in the higher terrain areas of southeast OK and western AR.
306 PM EDT Tue Jul 23 2024 - Rain showers gradually tapering off this evening into tonight - AM clouds and a few showers give way to clearing Wednesday afternoon - Temperatures becoming very warm this weekend - No widespread precipitation expected from Wednesday afternoon through at least the weekend Midlevel troughing is in place over the upper Great Lakes early this afternoon.
(This evening through Wednesday Night) An upper-level trough across Texas into the Red River Valley of north Texas and Oklahoma will be the main catalyst driving the weather pattern through the short-term period. The highest coverage of precipitation will likely be across Deep East Texas and north Louisiana with lesser amounts along and north of the I-30 corridor.
The southern valley has the highest relative risk due to a few rounds of convection today and some flooding issues night before last.
1047 AM CDT Tue Jul 23 2024 A sw-ne oriented upper trof axis basically splits the forecast area in two today, and is not expected to move much today. Rain/storm chances will be focused primarily on the east side of the trof axis, to the south of I-44. The highest chances will be across NW AR.
- Better chances for rain and storms Wednesday ahead of and along a cold front. - Warmer, drier weather is anticipated late week through the weekend with highs in the mid to upper 80s. A cold front currently positioned over southern Minnesota and central Wisconsin will be the focus of the next 24 hours or so. This weak cold front moves in from the northwest overnight into the day on Wednesday, bringing the best chances all week for showers and storms. Late in the week, another area of high pressure settles in across the Great Lakes region from Canada. As upper level ridging sets up across the eastern CONUS, temperatures will warm throughout the weekend into the upper 80s to near 90.
Clear skies for just about all of SE Arizona this morning under northeasterly flow aloft as high pressure aloft remains centered near Las Vegas. Given the drier air aloft from Tucson eastward, the atmosphere will mix out nicely with surface dewpoints dropping into the low to mid 50's. In terms of convective development, while the flow pattern is favorable, given the drier air from Tucson eastward, storms that form off the White Mountains will tend to struggle as they try to push off the higher terrain. The 23/00z upper air 500 mb plot had the high centered between Vegas and LA with N/NE flow over the forecast area with little change expected over the next several days.
Upper trough to the west still remains oriented southwest to northeast and strong high pressure continues to remain in place over the Atlantic.
(This evening through Wednesday) Our forecast remains mostly dry in the short term with slightly cooler than average temperatures for Wednesday and a potential for patchy fog in the morning across southeast Oklahoma as well as late afternoon heat-driven storms across our southeast although coverage would be very isolated and weak. The axis of our upper trough will start shifting eastward eventually over southeast Oklahoma by Wednesday while down at the surface a stationary front stretched across far southeast may lift as a warm front into our southeast CWA before washing out as light southeast winds veer.
1209 PM CDT Tue Jul 23 2024 A sw-ne oriented upper trof axis basically splits the forecast area in two today, and is not expected to move much today. Rain/storm chances will be focused primarily on the east side of the trof axis, to the south of I-44. The highest chances will be across NW AR.
(This evening through Wednesday) High pressure will remain to the southeast through the short term with southwest flow keeping plenty of moisture over the state.
826 AM PDT Tue Jul 23 2024 Upper ridge of warm air is situated over Nevada and producing an easterly flow of monsoon moisture across southern California.
- A cold front will bring a better chance for thunderstorms (30-50%) Wednesday afternoon/evening, followed by cooler and drier weather for the end of the week. The exception may be locations along/north of a Canton to Bloomington line that may experience isolated showers through the night as a weak cold front sags southward into the region.
An upper ridge will maintain the hot temperatures today. Excessive Heat Warning and Heat Advisories remain in effect for the lower elevations.
The region will remain within a deep/moist southwest flow between strong ridging over the western Atlantic, and a deep upper trough to the west. At the surface, lee side troughing and an active sea breeze will enhance surface convergence over parts of the area. 5 inches, combined with forcing aloft from short waves shifting across the area along the eastern periphery of the trough, will lead to numerous to widespread showers and thunderstorms.
1136 AM EDT Tue Jul 23 2024 Weak mid level disturbances will ripple through a slow moving large scale mid level trough, keeping the threat of showers and thunderstorms in the forecast into mid week.
The upper ridge offshore will shift westward into the forecast area while upper troughing remains to the west of the area with an axis over the southern Plains. With rising heights over the area, temperatures will be a bit warmer, in the mid-90s, with dew points in the low to mid-70s favoring max heat indices around 105F. Stronger instability and the low level convergence will support widespread storms which will produce efficient rainfall and the potential for flash flooding with the entire area in a slight risk from WPC.
205 PM EDT Tue Jul 23 2024 Weak mid level disturbances will ripple through a slow moving large scale mid level trough, keeping the threat of showers and thunderstorms in the forecast into mid week.
344 PM EDT Tue Jul 23 2024 High pressure will persist across the Atlantic while weak low pressure lingers across the Southeast. Broader scale troughing extends from the Great Lakes down to the Louisiana Gulf Coast, over top upper level ridging along the southeast and across the Atlantic with warm/humid air still bottled up across the southeast region.
While storms may form (20-40% chance) near the coastal terminals (mostly VCTS), the highest chance (40-60%) of overhead impacts will be across the Greater Orlando terminals between 23/20Z-24/00Z. PoP 50-60 percent areawide today, with the highest chances occurring across the interior, with the sea breeze collision forecast to occur around Lake county or more on the west side of Florida later this afternoon into this evening. Hot and humid conditions continuing today, with afternoon highs in the low 90s and peak heat indices ranging between 103-107 degrees. Generally favorable boating conditions persist, as the Atlantic ridge axis drifts north of the local area into early this weekend.
- A cold front will bring a better chance for thunderstorms (30-40%) Wednesday afternoon/evening, followed by cooler and drier weather for the end of the week.
Otherwise, an Atlantic Ridge sprawls across the Atlantic and across the Gulf of Mexico.
1216 PM CDT Tue Jul 23 2024 (Today and tonight) Warmer and drier conditions can be expected from today through the rest of the week. The upper level ridge over the southwestern US will continue to be suppressed by a large trough moving into the northwestern US. However, this ridge will shift more eastward resulting in rising heights over West Texas. This will bring warmer temperatures this afternoon but still slightly below seasonal averages. A cumulus field will likely develop today given the warmer temperatures but much drier air aloft will exist in addition to a minimum in near surface theta-e values.
1227 PM CDT Tue Jul 23 2024 (Today through Wednesday night) A pretty quiet short term as high pressure over the Four Corners strengthens. With the upper trough exiting to the east today the height will rise and warmer air will move over the area. Given the ridge continues to build in strength, tomorrow will be even warmer with highs in the mid 90s to near 100 in a couple of the typical hot spots.
Latest Visible/WV satellite imagery shows partly cloudy skies across southeast Arizona with the mid/upper level high centered to our northwest over southern Nevada. Nation/western Pima County and in the higher terrain of far northern Graham and Greenlee Counties. Meanwhile, as scattered storms develop and move off the White Mountains they will tend to struggle pushing into the lower elevations given the drier air (PWAT at or just under 1 inch) across Graham/Greenlee/Cochise. HREF/CAMs are in very good agreement on developing thunderstorms over the higher terrain, which then push to the south to southwest during the afternoon.
Much more threatening weather is expected Wednesday afternoon and evening, with severe thunderstorms with damaging winds and hail possible, as a cold front passes through.
726 PM EDT Tue Jul 23 2024 High pressure will persist across the Atlantic while weak low pressure lingers across the Southeast. There is plenty of surface based instability available, but it seems as though Atlantic ridging nudging in aloft with rising heights has been enough to prevent strong convection. High pressure aloft will be centered over Bermuda, placing the forecast area within the western periphery of the feature.
Wildfire smoke from outside the area will remain trapped under the high pressure.
921 PM EDT Tue Jul 23 2024 Mid-level troughing will remain in place to our west through the middle of the week, with a surface front stalled over the area.
where temps have bumped up into the low 80s this afternoon due to lack of cloud cover. Primary trough axis aloft remains to our west. Expecting primary trough axis to swing through tonight. and while we should be on the backside of broader troughing. Longwave troughing over the Great Lakes will continue to pivot east over the northeast CONUS and southeast Canada late this week. Meanwhile, amplified ridging will fold over the northern Great Plains through the end of the week, eventually sliding overhead this weekend. Forecast Details: Aforementioned high pressure spreading across the region will keep rain-free weather and plentiful sunshine in place late this week through most of this weekend.
Temps will slowly drop into the lower 70s during the overnight hours. The upper ridge offshore will shift westward into the forecast area while upper troughing remains to the west of the area with an axis over the southern Plains. With rising heights over the area, temperatures will be a bit warmer, in the mid-90s, with dew points in the low to mid-70s favoring max heat indices around 105F. Stronger instability and the low level convergence will support widespread storms which will produce efficient rainfall and the potential for flash flooding with the entire area in a slight risk from WPC.
220 PM PDT Tue Jul 23 2024 Upper ridge of warm air is situated over Nevada and producing an easterly flow of monsoon moisture across southern California producing mountain and high desert thunderstorms.
Meanwhile, an upper trough continues to linger overhead, leading once again to diurnally driven convection this afternoon (though much more isolated compared to the past couple of days). Low clouds will overspread the southeast half of the region once again overnight as Gulf moistures spreads north around the southeast flank of the upper trough.
Afternoon highs in the low to mid 90s with triple digit heat indices.
610 PM CDT Tue Jul 23 2024 (This evening through Wednesday) Our forecast remains mostly dry in the short term with slightly cooler than average temperatures for Wednesday and a potential for patchy fog in the morning across southeast Oklahoma as well as late afternoon heat-driven storms across our southeast although coverage would be very isolated and weak. The axis of our upper trough will start shifting eastward eventually over southeast Oklahoma by Wednesday while down at the surface a stationary front stretched across far southeast may lift as a warm front into our southeast CWA before washing out as light southeast winds veer.
800 PM EDT Tue Jul 23 2024 - Rain showers gradually tapering off this evening into tonight - AM clouds and a few showers give way to clearing Wednesday afternoon - Temperatures becoming very warm this weekend - No widespread precipitation expected from Wednesday afternoon through at least the weekend Midlevel troughing is in place over the upper Great Lakes early this afternoon.
Despite the trough aloft, CIMMS mean-layer analyses place a large anticyclone centered near Bermuda that reaches west southwest across north-central Florida.
One is a cold front that is stretched across Northern Lower Michigan from north of Oscoda to Manistee further west to a low near Manitowoc Wisconsin. The low will move east tonight through Lower Michigan and into Ontario, which will keep the front across Central Lower Michigan tonight.
However, some energy does pass through the western CONUS ridge during the period, and then crosses the Plains.
H5 upper trough moves to the southeast this evening, easing the pressure gradient and bringing winds down into the 15 to 20 mph range through the overnight period.
Winds will not completely drop off overnight in most locations, but given the expected decrease in cloud cover and the very low dew points present across the area, even a little wind should not keep overnight temperatures from dropping closer to the traditional MOS guidance, rather than the higher NBM values.
209 PM MST Sat Feb 17 2024 Upper ridging will lend to a warm and dry weather pattern through the week ahead.
A bit windy Sunday before high pressure builds into the new work week, with a warming trend. The main forecast is on track, however had to add some POPs to the forecast to account for snow showers still persisting across the lowlands. Thus through 00z there was a fair amount of manual edits to better reflect the current situation and also the expected continuance of shower activity in the lowlands this afternoon, and in the mountains into the evening hours. Any sheltered locations that manage to decouple and go calm could be cooler. Southwesterly winds will strengthen around or after sunrise, with gusts in the lower elevations of 15 to 25 mph, and ridgetop gusts of 30 to 40 mph will be possible in the northern mountains.
Early evening KTBW radar imagery is showing a broad rain shield from just south of Interstate 4 northward as the cold front advances south through the region, with some scattered cells to the south of the frontal boundary. (00Z TAFS) A cold front is pushing south through the area today, with northeast winds already in place at KTPA, KPIE, KSRQ, and KLAL. Traces of sea fog developed off the coast of southwest Florida earlier this afternoon, but satellite imagery and beach cams have shown that this fog has now lifted out as the cold front pushes south.
Another wave will pivot through the broad NE trough on Sunday. More notable will be the tightening pressure gradient between the building high pressure and the departing low to out north.
656 PM EST Sat Feb 17 2024 A cold front will move through the area early this morning, followed by cooler conditions.
920 PM EST Sat Feb 17 2024 High pressure and dry conditions are expected overnight. A good fetch of subtropical moisture (generally above 500 mb) should keep the high cloud cover going into tomorrow. Still, freezing or near freezing temperatures (25 to 35 degrees) are likely for most of northern and central Georgia by Sunday morning.