Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1156 AM CDT Sun Jul 21 2024 - An extended stretch of cooler-than-average temperatures will continue today before increasing through the week. - Scattered showers are possible Sunday and Monday before drier weather builds in alongside the warmer temps. The upper pattern continues to be dominated by an amplified ridge over the Rockies and trofing over the Great Lakes with a cutoff low spinning over Iowa. Current temperatures are in the lower to mid-60s, only about 10-15 degrees cooler than today's notably cool afternoon highs.
(This evening through Monday) Moist E-NE upslope winds were helping focus afternoon convection across the high plains of eastern NM close to a ribbon of unsettled N-NW flow aloft.
349 PM EDT Sun Jul 21 2024 High pressure will gradually weaken through tonight before southwest flow aloft becomes more active after Monday.
143 PM PDT Sun Jul 21 2024 High pressure will continue to bring hot weather for inland areas through the middle of the week with a shallow marine layer closer to the coast.
A weak and broad upper trough remains draped across the south central US providing our local region with a light southwesterly flow aloft. Additionally, a ridge axis associated with high pressure over the Atlantic continues to extend into the northern Gulf of Mexico, helping to provide us with a light and persistent onshore flow. Lows tonight will range from the low 70s inland to the mid to upper 70s along the coast. /96 (Monday Night through Sunday) The pattern will change very little through at least the middle of the week as our region will continue to be positioned between an upper level trough to our west and upper level ridging over the southwest Atlantic and eastern Gulf. The upper ridging attempts to expand westward across our forecast area by the end of the week into the weekend.
A convective complex is moving east across the FL/AL coast ahead of a positively tilted trough axis near the Ark-La-Tex region late this morning. (Today and tonight) Upper troughing remains situated through the southern Plains with the western Atlantic ridge nosing across the Florida peninsula into the eastern Gulf. Highs today will be in the low 90s with lows tonight in the mid 70s.
A deepening upper trough over the Central Plains has led to an increase in amplification of the height pattern and as a result, some height rises over the forecast area are expected today. In addition a weak upper level trough over the Upper Mississippi River Valley will rotate weak disturbances in a southwest flow aloft and enhance diurnal convective activity.
1118 AM EDT Sun Jul 21 2024 A cold front will exit the region today. High pressure will build over the area Sunday night into Monday.
Aloft high pressure is centered near Needles, CA putting southeast Arizona under north to northeast flow in the mid-levels. Then, thanks to the 15-25 kts of northeast flow along with 15-20 kts of 0-6 km wind shear storms will move off the rim and into the lower deserts by late afternoon and then to the international border by the evening. That will change today with the high retrograding to NW AZ with the steering flow becoming more NELY later this afternoon into this evening. This will allow storms that develop over the Mogollon Rim to White mountains to propagate S/SW into the lower deserts later this afternoon into this evening. The upcoming week will see daily chance of afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms will day-to-day variability on areal coverage of storms as storms propagate off the higher terrain.
1250 PM CDT Sun Jul 21 2024 (Today through Monday) The mid-level ridge will remained anchored over the Great Basin region, as a 500mb trough continues to move over the Central U.
Early this morning, a surface frontal boundary was located over the Big Country while an upper-level trough was over the Midwest. The cold front will move southward to the Hill Country today while an impulse will move around the base of the upper-level trough. Otherwise, the increased cloud cover and rain chances today should result in high temperatures reaching the low to mid 90s, followed by lows tonight in the 70s. (Monday night through next Sunday) Unsettled weather continues through the work week with rain and cooler temperatures continuing, especially for the southern areas. A broad upper level trough stretching from the Great Lakes back southwestward into central Texas will continue to bring weak disturbances across the area.
A deepening upper trough over the Central Plains has led to an increase in amplification of the height pattern and as a result, some height rises over the forecast area are expected today. Through the short term the synoptic situation will change minimally with the upper level trough axis well west of the area and the Bermuda high over the western Atlantic.
Expect scattered thunderstorms this afternoon and tonight in se Oregon due to short wave trough moving northward along the OR coast.
An upper level low has dropped into southern New Mexico and far West Texas that is providing the needed instability to cause the storms to form.
105 PM EDT Sun Jul 21 2024 High pressure will gradually weaken through tonight before southwest flow aloft becomes more active after Monday.
Below normal temperatures continue into the day on Monday with highs in the low to mid 80s.
202 PM EDT Sun Jul 21 2024 Weakening high pressure will remain across the region for one more day. However, an inverted trough across Kentucky may sharpen a bit this afternoon as a weak mid level disturbance in the southwest flow aloft moves northeast across the region. However, only tweaked highs down a couple of degrees, which results in highs from the lower to mid 80s. Lows tonight will be in the lower to mid 60s with highs on Monday generally in the lower 80s.
138 PM MDT Sun Jul 21 2024 - Persistent high pressure over the Great Basin allows daytime temperatures to steadily climb through midweek. The position of the high limits mid-level moisture and leads to only isolated high-based showers and thunderstorms during most of this time frame.
We'll remain beneath southwesterly flow aloft as the southern Appalachian region is situated on the southeast periphery of an upper trough.
237 PM EDT Sun Jul 21 2024 Canadian high pressure will build over the area tonight into Monday.
No significant change in the overall weather pattern is expected through the mid to latter part of the work week as positively tilted mid level trough persist across the region.
The pattern of a mid-level trough will remain in place through much or all of this week, but does start to break down some later in the week.
1111 AM MDT Sun Jul 21 2024 - Gusty showers possible today across southeast Wyoming and western Nebraska with much cooler temperatures expected.
357 PM EDT Sun Jul 21 2024 Weak mid level disturbances will ripple through a slow moving large scale mid level trough, keeping the threat of showers and thunderstorms in the forecast into mid week.
An upper level trough of low pressure over the upper mid-west will also move slowly east with time, dynamic lift from this feature also aiding in convective development. Models indicate greatest deep layer convergence along and west of the Blue Ridge through this evening, and then transitioning into the foothills and piedmont overnight. Again best chance will be west of the Blue ridge this afternoon, then into the foothills and piedmont this evening and overnight.
(This evening through Monday Night) Unsettled weather will continue over the short-term, as deep upper-level troughing really gains its footing today.
An upper trough axis will remain just west of the area tonight.
Daily shower/storm chances return to the forecast as we transition to a more troffy upper flow pattern.
Light southwesterly flow aloft will continue as a weak, but broad, upper trough remains draped across the south central CONUS. Additionally, a ridge axis associated with high pressure centered over the Atlantic continues to extend westward into the Gulf of Mexico and Gulf coast region. Lows Sunday night will range from the low 70s inland to the mid to upper 70s along the coast.
1225 PM CDT Sun Jul 21 2024 (Rest of today through Monday) Temperatures are nearly 5 degrees warmer right now than they were at this time yesterday. (Monday Night through next Sunday) Our weather will continue to be influenced by the deep cut off upper-level low traversing Canada, leading to a large troughing pattern stretching across portions of the Midwest and Ohio Valley.
The Western Atlantic high pressure ridge is expected to remain in place over the region with fairly typical summertime conditions through the upcoming week.
Latest 21/12Z guidance shows subsidence out ahead of a secondary ridge building over the Rockies.
Broad troughing remains over the Mid South and Central Plains while elongated mid-level ridging was centered Nevada. Winds will be from the south at 3-6 mph and low temperatures will range from around 70 far northeast and east to readings in the low 70s west and far south. while broad troughing persists just to the northwest.
1230 PM CDT Sun Jul 21 2024 (Today through Monday afternoon) WV imagery shows the upper ridge has amplified/narrowed as a Pacific trough approaches the west coast this morning, and is centered over the junction of CA/CA/NV, while to the east, a trough digs through the MS Valley.
Northerly flow aloft continued from the influence of a potent upper ridge extending into Alberta, while a deep low was off the coast of British Columbia. Precipitation chances (20-40%) return early Monday morning in the north central and east, persisting through the day as a back door cold front drifts down from the Canadian Prairies. The main forecast concern this week is hot temperatures returning as the previously mentioned upper ridge shifts east.
1116 AM EDT Sun Jul 21 2024 Weakening high pressure will remain across the region for one more day. However, an inverted trough across Kentucky may sharpen a bit this afternoon as a weak mid level disturbance in the southwest flow aloft moves northeast across the region. However, only tweaked highs down a couple of degrees, which results in highs from the lower to mid 80s. Lows tonight will be in the lower to mid 60s with highs on Monday generally in the lower 80s.
207 PM CDT Sun Jul 21 2024 - An extended stretch of cooler-than-average temperatures will continue today before increasing through the week. - Scattered showers are possible today and Monday before drier weather builds in alongside the warmer temps. Short Term (Today and Tomorrow) The upper level pattern continues to encompass a closed low over northern Quebec and a ridge over the western CONUS. Broad troughing between these two features brings northerly upper level flow to much of a the area. Highs this afternoon will approach the low 80s in most areas. Highs are once against expected in the low 80s.
1226 PM CDT Sun Jul 21 2024 (Rest of Today) A generally unsettled wx pattern will continue across the central TN Valley thru the afternoon hrs this Sun, as a broad upper trough axis drops southward into the Mid South region and a weak frontal boundary located over mid TN SW into the lower MS Valley drifts SE into NW AL.
(Rest of today through Monday) Temperatures are nearly 5 degrees warmer right now than they were at this time yesterday. (Monday Night through next Sunday) Our weather will continue to be influenced by the deep cut off upper-level low traversing Canada, leading to a large troughing pattern stretching across portions of the Midwest and Ohio Valley.
1154 AM CDT Sun Jul 21 2024 (Today and tonight) The synoptic pattern still remains more or less unchanged from the past several days with broad cyclonic flow aloft over the eastern CONUS and an upper ridge centered over the Great Basin. Even so, still think that blended guidance is a bit too agressive with PoPs given relatively weak large scale forcing, and have kept the higher PoPs focused along the TX/NM state line with only SChc mention retained for most areas off the Caprock. More humid easterly surface flow should keep temperatures a bit cooler today compared to yesterday with highs in the mid 80s to low 90s, with lows mainly in the mid 60s tonight.
WV imagery indicates a northwest flow aloft prevailing across the Western High Plains downstream of ridging aloft parked across the far Intermountain West. Near the surface, a broad area of high pressure is situated across the Central Plains. There is a minimal chance (20%) for isolated thunderstorms near and along the Colorado border early this evening as a field of moderately stronger northwesterlies prevails across the high plains of eastern Colorado. Much like yesterday, max daytime heating resulting in steepening mid-level lapse rates combined with sufficient instability (MUCAPE values upward of 1000 to 1500 J/kg) within an easterly upslope flow, will be conducive to late afternoon development as H5 vort maxima cycle southeastward off a retrograding ridge axis.
1216 PM CDT Sun Jul 21 2024 (Today through Monday Night) An upper level high pressure is over the western U. with an upper trough over the Great Lakes and extending through the central and eastern U. A short wave trough will bring an increase in moisture and rain chances to the north today and will be more widespread during the afternoon and evening. Rain chances increase on Monday as the warm front enters the state. Lows tonight will be in the lower 60s to lower 70s and in the mid 60s to lower 70s Monday night.
104 PM EDT Sun Jul 21 2024 (Today and tonight) Upper troughing remains situated through the southern Plains with the western Atlantic ridge nosing across the Florida peninsula into the eastern Gulf. Highs today will be in the low 90s with lows tonight in the mid 70s.
Daytime highs will again be hot with low to mid 90s likely in the lower valleys, pushing close to the upper 90s in the Magic Valley towards Shoshone.
- By mid week, the pattern sets up for a warmer and dryer pattern. With a return of warmer and dryer conditions fully setting in by late week, concerns for fire weather conditions may increase. The near surface smoke is mostly expected across portions of the Nebraska Panhandle, whereas the vertically integrated plume (smoke aloft) is stronger over the Sandhills and the Highway 83 corridor. As the week progresses, the upper level ridge is expected to establish a bit more over portions of western Nebraska. Spaghetti plots are in fairly consistent agreement on a ridge breakdown late week.
With the ridge over the Atlantic not expected to break down any time soon, the ARKLAMS will continue to see large amounts of moisture being pumped into the region. The band of dry air that's been lingering to the northwest for the past day or so is expected to be absorbed as an upper trough moves eastward. By Monday afternoon, dewpoints across the north/west will be back in the lower 70s along with small rain chances.
High pressure is centered across southern Nevada this afternoon, allowing for more showers and thunderstorms through this evening. The high remains nearby before starting to shift slightly eastward through the week.
However, scattered showers and storms may fester across SE OK (and into W-Central AR) for much of the night as the aforementioned boundary slowly sags south and a subtle impulse within the troughing flow aloft passes overhead. No significant change in the overall weather pattern is expected through the mid to latter part of the work week as positively tilted mid level trough persist across the region.
725 PM EDT Sun Jul 21 2024 High pressure will gradually weaken through tonight before southwest flow aloft becomes more active after Monday.
655 PM CDT Sun Jul 21 2024 (This evening through Monday Night) Unsettled weather will continue over the short-term, as deep upper-level troughing really gains its footing today.
Mid-level flow is out of the north/northwest around 15-25 kts which should be sufficient to move storms off the rim and into the lower deserts. Monday the high moves a little further north keeping southeast Arizona under northeast flow aloft. Hi-res guidance shows this with storms again forming along the rim and moving southwestward into the lower deserts.
Coverage may actually increase through the evening as an upper level trough continues to push towards the area. Through the short term the synoptic situation will change minimally with the upper level trough axis well west of the area and the Bermuda high over the western Atlantic.
922 PM EDT Sun Jul 21 2024 High pressure will gradually weaken through tonight before southwest flow aloft becomes more active after Monday.
947 PM EDT Sun Jul 21 2024 Weak mid level disturbances will ripple through a slow moving large scale mid level trough, keeping the threat of showers and thunderstorms in the forecast into mid week.
631 PM EDT Sun Jul 21 2024 High pressure will gradually weaken through tonight before southwest flow aloft becomes more active after Monday.
Overnight lows will be in the low to mid 70s. With the ridge over the Atlantic not expected to break down any time soon, the ARKLAMS will continue to see large amounts of moisture being pumped into the region. The band of dry air that's been lingering to the northwest for the past day or so is expected to be absorbed as an upper trough moves eastward. By Monday afternoon, dewpoints across the north/west will be back in the lower 70s along with small rain chances.
Mean-layer flow is cyclonic at all levels, tempered by dry air slots noted on the low and mid-level GOES water vapor channels. The relic outflow from Cuba stabilized much of the Lower Keys and waters to the south. Atlantic ridging will extend westward across the Florida Peninsula and into the Gulf of Mexico through the next several days, with gentle to moderate east to southeast breezes prevailing across the Keys coastal waters.
648 PM CDT Sun Jul 21 2024 (Rest of today through Monday) Temperatures are nearly 5 degrees warmer right now than they were at this time yesterday. (Monday Night through next Sunday) Our weather will continue to be influenced by the deep cut off upper-level low traversing Canada, leading to a large troughing pattern stretching across portions of the Midwest and Ohio Valley.
912 PM CDT Sun Jul 21 2024 Skies are partly cloudy across the Mid-South this evening with temperatures ranging from the lower 70s to lower 80s.
848 PM CDT Sun Jul 21 2024 Continuing to deal with scattered convection late this evening across two locations, the first being near the Lower Toledo Bend Country of Deep East Texas into West Central Louisiana as well as near the I-20 Corridor of Northeast Texas. This seems plausible as the upper trough axis is located to our northwest and the corridor is embedded in an area of near 2 inch pwat. 13 (This evening through Monday Night) Unsettled weather will continue over the short-term, as deep upper-level troughing really gains its footing today.
With the higher coverage of storms earlier today, there is more debris cirrus that should persist overnight. Otherwise look for low temperatures in the low 70s with a few areas dropping into the upper 60s.
A strong high pressure system will influence the weather across northern and central Nevada, with very warm to hot temperatures through midweek.
642 PM CDT Sun Jul 21 2024 (Tonight through Monday night) The upper-level ridge will remain over the western US through the short term, as a positively tilted upper-level trough continues to move across the central to northeastern US.
With daytime heating we can expect another day of numerous showers and storms on Monday as a 500 mb trough persists across the region.
601 PM CDT Sun Jul 21 2024 - An extended stretch of cooler-than-average temperatures will continue today before increasing through the week. - Scattered showers are possible today and Monday before drier weather builds in alongside the warmer temps. Short Term (Today and Tomorrow) The upper level pattern continues to encompass a closed low over northern Quebec and a ridge over the western CONUS. Broad troughing between these two features brings northerly upper level flow to much of a the area. Highs this afternoon will approach the low 80s in most areas. Highs are once against expected in the low 80s.
736 PM EDT Sun Jul 21 2024 Weak mid level disturbances will ripple through a slow moving large scale mid level trough, keeping the threat of showers and thunderstorms in the forecast into mid week.
641 PM CDT Sun Jul 21 2024 (This evening through Monday) Moist E-NE upslope winds were helping focus afternoon convection across the high plains of eastern NM close to a ribbon of unsettled N-NW flow aloft.
459 PM MDT Sun Jul 21 2024 - Persistent high pressure over the Great Basin allows daytime temperatures to steadily climb through midweek. The position of the high limits mid-level moisture and leads to only isolated high-based showers and thunderstorms during most of this time frame.
- The highest rain chances (55-90%) for this week continues to look they will occur from late tonight into Tuesday.
There is a signal in smoke models for another surge of near surface smoke by Monday morning behind the next cold front. Monday, Water vapor imagery verifies a low pressure system near the Manitoba Saskatchewan border moving southeast into the Minnesota arrowhead/Great lakes area. This low will send a wave of vorticity strong enough to produce storms in the morning lasting until late afternoon and early evening.
With the higher coverage of storms earlier today, there is more debris cirrus that should persist overnight. Otherwise look for low temperatures in the low 70s with a few areas dropping into the upper 60s. (Monday through Tuesday Night) The pattern remains mostly unchanged in the short term period as trough remains situated to our west across much of the Great Lakes, Ohio River Valley, and southern Plains and ridge remains centered over the western Atlantic.
148 AM EDT Mon Jul 22 2024 High pressure will gradually weaken through tonight before southwest flow aloft becomes more active after Monday.
343 AM EDT Mon Jul 22 2024 Weak mid level disturbances will ripple through a slow moving large scale mid level trough, keeping the threat of showers and thunderstorms in the forecast into mid week.
No major marine concerns through the period as the Atlantic high pressure ridge axis stays in place over the area keeping a light SE flow.
1215 AM CDT Mon Jul 22 2024 (This evening through Monday) Moist E-NE upslope winds were helping focus afternoon convection across the high plains of eastern NM close to a ribbon of unsettled N-NW flow aloft.
Beyond Tuesday, midlevel heights will begin to increase as the midlevel low departs to the east and the western CONUS ridge gradually builds eastward.
1114 PM MDT Sun Jul 21 2024 - Persistent high pressure over the Great Basin allows daytime temperatures to steadily climb through midweek. The position of the high limits mid-level moisture and leads to only isolated high-based showers and thunderstorms during most of this time frame.
An upper low will gradually move east across Missouri tonight while at the surface weak low pressure continues to sag south into TX while weak high pressure builds in from IA. The pattern will gradually evolve Tues into Weds as the mid level trough departs leaving more general northwest flow aloft between an upper low across the Great Lakes and a ridge across the Rockies. Expect warmer temps to around avg for this time of year and mainly dry weather for the rest of the week at least that is the way it looks for now.
Temperatures will remain unseasonably cool for July, with afternoon highs mostly in the low to mid 80s.
- Drier weather builds in alongside the warmer temps for the remainder of 7-day forecast. The upper pattern remains mostly unchanged over the past four mornings with broad trofing over the Great Lakes and Midwest with an amplified ridge right over the Rocky Mountains. A small and weak cut-off low continues to spin over the Corn Belt, though it has meandered east.