Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
WV imagery indicates a closed upper low shifting slowly east through northeast Oklahoma into southwest Missouri/northwest Arkansas. Near the surface, an area of low pressure is tracking slowly east along the Red River Valley into the Ark-La-Tex Region. Lingering sprinkles/light rain across central/south central Kansas early this morning is expected to give way to drier conditions later today into tonight as the SREF indicates a closed upper low exiting eastward through the Central Plains, giving way to a weak northwesterly flow aloft across the Western High Plains. Minimal precipchances (30-40%) return late Monday as an upper level trough deepens as it digs southeast through the Northern Rockies into the Western High Plains, ushering a cold front southeastward through western Kansas sometime Monday evening.
- A ridge starts building in on Monday leading to some nice weather this week. With the cold front east of the region and the upper level low moving over us, snow levels are falling this morning. Most of the moisture went through already, but some lingering showers behind the front combined with the low snow levels means there's a chance for some snow in the valleys of western Montana. Monday a ridge starts to build into the region, giving us a break from the wet, windy weather.
1157 PM CDT Sat Oct 25 2025 - Clearer skies and warmer temperatures for Sunday as highs reach into the low 60s.
Breezy conditions expected today as a trough passes to the north of the region. High pressure will then build through the week, bringing continued dry and generally warm conditions.
Models show precipitation to continue moving east bringing more precipitation to the lower elevations. Models show the trough has flattened to a bit more northwest to zonal flow with an easing to the pressure gradients which is allowing winds to settle through today. Models continue to show a slight northwest flow settling over the region Monday ahead of a ridging pattern.
629 AM EDT Sun Oct 26 2025 -High pressure continues mild and dry weather today though the midweek with chilly overnight temperatures. Variable light winds in the morning begin to mix and (slightly) increase this afternoon as previously mentioned high pressure progresses northwest to Georgian Bay this afternoon, veering winds southeast. Efficient radiational cooling processes allow overnight lows to drop near or just below freezing for most locations besides areas influenced by marine environments.
Around noon, expect precipitation to taper off, dying out in the west first with an eastwards clearing as the closed low moves far enough to the northeast.
Objective analysis and water vapor imagery early this morning show quasi-zonal flow over much of Arizona, with a closed low pressure system in the south-central Plains, and a sub-tropical high over central Mexico and the southern Baja. As we move towards the middle of this week, the aforementioned subtropical ridge will start to push into Arizona.
- Conditions will improve from west to east today as a low pressure system moves across the Ark-La-Tex - A much cooler airmass will arrive during the middle of the coming week.
648 AM CDT Sun Oct 26 2025 -Unsettled weather is expected today and tonight associated with a passing upper level low; severe weather threat remains very low.
632 AM CDT Sun Oct 26 2025 Updated aviation portion for 12Z TAF issuance - Fairly tranquil weather is expected through the middle of the work week due to a persistent 500mb ridge.
Dry conditions and mostly clear skies are expected to prevail through Monday given a strong ridge locked over the Great Lakes. A complicated upper level pattern evolution is still expected for the middle and end of the week as three distinct upper lows eventually merge into one large upper low over the eastern CONUS. A sct-bkn cloud deck will decay this morning as drier air pushes southward in response to a mid level trough passage. The low level height gradient will be bit stronger today with low level mixing supporting easterly winds of 10 to 15 knots (perhaps some slightly higher afternoon gusts).
541 AM MDT Sun Oct 26 2025 KEY MESSAGES: 1) A cold frontal passage will bring gusty west winds to NE Montana today with scattered light rain into Monday.
1021 AM EDT Sun Oct 26 2025 High pressure over the Great Lakes will lift into Quebec through Monday.
250 AM PDT Sun Oct 26 2025 * Strong blustery winds continue today, with wind prone areas achieving gusts to 75 mph while ridge gusts reach 100 mph.
Dry conditions and mostly clear skies are expected to prevail through Monday given a strong ridge locked over the Great Lakes. A complicated upper level pattern evolution is still expected for the middle and end of the week as three distinct upper lows eventually merge into one large upper low over the eastern CONUS. Persistent east flow is expected through the TAF period on the southern edge of high pressure over the eastern Great Lakes.
An additional 1-4 inches appear likely across the central mountains with 2-4 across the lower elevations of the eastern highlands with 4-8 still likely across the higher peaks of the Bear River Range and the Big Holes.
- A ridge starts building in on Monday leading to some nice weather this week. Overnight tonight, another cold front will bring widespread gusty winds and mountain snowfall.
Western periphery of a strong 1033mb high pressure system remains the prominent synoptic feature today which has yielded mostly clear skies. Increasing stability and continued push of dry air advection, noted from a strengthening inversion between 800-700mb and large dew point depressions in the low levels, will ensure clear conditions overnight, allowing temperatures to drop into the 30s. Temperatures below the freezing mark are likely within the Irish Hills and Tri- Cities, away from the influence of Lake Huron and Saginaw Bay. High pressure will stagnate across Ontario and Quebec while an upper-level low travels from the southern Plains into the continental southeast. Concurrently, an upper-level trough across the northwest and northern Plains will amplify which in turn will sustained upper-level ridging across the Great Lakes area.
- The highest snow will be across the northern Colorado mountains where 2-5 inches are expected in most areas. Amounts over 6 inches are more likely to be limited to the highest terrain of the Park Range.
- Low rain chances will continue through tonight as a low pressure system shifts east across the region. Although no additional heavy rain is expected, the chance for rain will continue today as the closed low noted spinning over northeast Oklahoma continues shifting slowly to the east. Drier air wrapping around the low and across our CWA will contribute to a few breaks in the clouds today and the lower rain chances the remainder of the day. Around noon, expect precipitation to taper off, dying out in the west first with an eastwards clearing as the closed low moves far enough to the northeast.
256 PM EDT Sun Oct 26 2025 - Fair weather will dominate the pattern into mid week - More active pattern the latter half of the week into the weekend - Fair weather will dominate the pattern into mid week High pressure that is resting over Ontario and Quebec will dominate the weather pattern for at least the next few days. A large upper level low remains just off the east coast with a low traversing through the Tennessee Valley and a large upper level trough is setting up over the intermountain west. The interplay from the three previously mentioned low pressure systems will dominate the forecast period.
303 PM EDT Sun Oct 26 2025 - Fair weather will dominate the pattern into mid week - More active pattern the latter half of the week into the weekend - Fair weather will dominate the pattern into mid week High pressure that is resting over Ontario and Quebec will dominate the weather pattern for at least the next few days. A large upper level low remains just off the east coast with a low traversing through the Tennessee Valley and a large upper level trough is setting up over the intermountain west. The interplay from the three previously mentioned low pressure systems will dominate the forecast period.
During the middle of this week, subtropical ridging will start to push into Arizona causing H5 heights to rise to around 588-590 dm, which in turn will lead to warming temperatures.
- Warmer, with highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s for the Plains, a few light snow showers north of Cottonwood Pass through Monday afternoon.
- A cold front will move through the Panhandles later on Monday with a 20 to 30% chance of seeing showers in the Northeastern Panhandles.
1217 PM CDT Sun Oct 26 2025 -Unsettled weather is expected today and tonight associated with a passing upper level low; severe weather threat remains very low.
WV imagery indicates a closed upper low shifting slowly east through northeast Oklahoma into southwest Missouri/northwest Arkansas. Near the surface, an area of low pressure is tracking slowly east along the Red River Valley into the Ark-La-Tex Region. Lingering sprinkles/light rain across central/south central Kansas early this morning is expected to give way to drier conditions later today into tonight as the SREF indicates a closed upper low exiting eastward through the Central Plains, giving way to a weak northwesterly flow aloft across the Western High Plains. Minimal precip chances(30-40%) return late Monday as an upper level trough deepens as it digs southeast through the Northern Rockies into the Western High Plains, ushering a cold front southeastward through western Kansas sometime Monday evening.
112 PM CDT Sun Oct 26 2025 Updated aviation portion for 18Z TAF issuance - Fairly tranquil weather is expected through the middle of the work week due to a persistent 500mb ridge.
Past that, broad northwest to zonal flow develops as upper level ridging builds in with near to slightly above normal temperatures and dry weather. Periods of breezy north to east winds are expected early in the week, with gusts 15 to 25 mph possible at times, locally stronger in canyons and over mountain ridges.
126 PM EDT Sun Oct 26 2025 High pressure will remain in place through the first half of the week, keeping conditions dry but also fairly cool. A low pressure system will then move in and bring widespread rain to the region late this week. Temperatures will fall below freezing tonight, which is the first widespread freeze across the region for the fall season. In addition, patchy fog/freezing fog will be possible, especially for locations in west- central NY. Temperatures Monday and Monday night will nearly be identical to today as highs will be in the 40s and 50s and lows fall below freezing once again.
High pressure will build in for the remainder of the week with valley inversions developing as conditions dry out. Current analysis consists of a surface cold front that has moved through northern Utah and SW Wyoming and is currently stalled around Utah County. Ahead of this front, temperatures are about 15 degrees warmer with southerly winds gusting between 20-30 mph with isolated gusts 35-40 mph. The freezing level is still relatively high >8000 feet and will remain high until the overnight hours when some cooler air aloft starts to slowly nudge into northern Utah/SW Wyoming. Overall, this will limit snowfall totals to the highest terrain generally >8000 feet.
215 PM EDT Sun Oct 26 2025 A cool afternoon is expected across the forecast area with occasionally breezy winds and patchy drizzle making it feel even cooler. Strong high pressure is centered over southern Canada this afternoon as Cold Air Damming becomes firmly established over the FA. Temperatures continue to struggle and are only expected to reach the lower to mid 60s in most locations. The clouds and rain limit cooling tonight with forecast lows generally in the lower 50s.
131 PM EDT Sun Oct 26 2025 -High pressure continues mild and dry weather today though the midweek with chilly overnight temperatures. Variable light winds in the morning begin to mix and (slightly) increase this afternoon as previously mentioned high pressure progresses northwest to Georgian Bay this afternoon, veering winds southeast. Efficient radiational cooling processes allow overnight lows to drop near or just below freezing for most locations besides areas influenced by marine environments.
Upstream, troughing across the US west coast and Rockies is nosing into the High Plains. The resulting sfc pressure falls across the High Plains and Northern Midwest states has tightened the regional pressure gradient, enabling breezy southerly flow and temperature observations reaching slightly above normal for late October in the mid to low 50s. Tonight, mostly clear skies may support fog and or freezing fog where overnight low temps reach the upper 20s to low 30s for portions of the interior central. Chances for fog/freezing fog diminish elsewhere, though a 10-30% chance remains eastward along M-28. Take it slow if you encounter fog on your morning commute! Heading into the early week, the ridge axis overhead shifts east over James Bay, becoming pinched off between a SE descending trough and a weak retrograding upper low along the eastern seaboard.
Best chance over the lower elevations is tonight into Monday (30 to 60 percent).
- Cooler and drier conditions are expected through the work week, with a substantial cooldown coming for the second half of the week behind a reinforcing cold front.
- Warm temperatures early week, then much cooler, below average temperatures, middle to late week.
High pressure continues to be the main story and driver of our weather and will continue for the next 7 to 10 days. The ridging that we will experience through tomorrow will flatten some due to the passing of a strong low pressure system now in the southern Idaho/ Montana area. Once the low has passed, greater amplitude ridging will set up increasing temperatures 3-7 degrees above normal. High temperature throughout the work week will be in the upper 80s to low 90s in the lower deserts from Tucson westward and in the lower to mid 80s across the lower elevation locations of Santa Cruz, Cochise and Graham counties.
753 PM EDT Sun Oct 26 2025 High pressure will remain in place through the first half of the week, keeping conditions dry but also fairly cool. A low pressure system will then move in and bring widespread rain to the region late this week. Temperatures will fall below freezing tonight, which is the first widespread freeze across the region for the fall season. In addition, patchy fog/freezing fog will be possible, especially for locations in west- central NY. Temperatures Monday and Monday night will nearly be identical to today as highs will be in the 40s and 50s and lows fall below freezing once again.
728 PM EDT Sun Oct 26 2025 - Fair weather will dominate the pattern into mid week - More active pattern the latter half of the week into the weekend - Fair weather will dominate the pattern into mid week High pressure that is resting over Ontario and Quebec will dominate the weather pattern for at least the next few days. A large upper level low remains just off the east coast with a low traversing through the Tennessee Valley and a large upper level trough is setting up over the intermountain west. The interplay from the three previously mentioned low pressure systems will dominate the forecast period.
- Scattered showers and storms tomorrow - Cooler and drier air arrives late week It has been a summer-like day across west central and southwest Florida with hot temperatures and scattered showers and a few storms firing up this afternoon.
634 PM CDT Sun Oct 26 2025 -Unsettled weather is expected today and tonight associated with a passing upper level low; severe weather threat remains very low.
An upper-level low centered near the Bootheel of Missouri early this morning will move ESE to the Carolinas through tonight as a strong ridge over Ontario remains mostly stationary. A longwave trough over western Canada and the northwest U. will become considerably elongated across the Great Plains over the next 24-48 hours between the ridge over Ontario and a rapidly building west coast ridge.
We will experience one more relatively cool day in the wake of the upper-level trough that passed over the area.
- Slightly warmer temperatures today. Meanwhile, an upper level trough of low pressure is sliding east-southeast through the Pacific Northwest. Near the surface, a weak lee side trough of low pressure remains anchored in eastern Colorado. Rain/thunderstorm chances (40-60%) pick up this evening as the SREF shows the aforementioned upper level trough deepening as it begins to dig more southeast through the Northern Rockies into the Western High Plains today, sending an attendant cold front into western Kansas by late evening. In response, developing low pressure in southeast Colorado will deepen while prevailing south-southeast upsloping continues to draw moisture into central Kansas and much of southwest Kansas ahead of the approaching cold front.
High pressure is building into the area bringing dry weather and this is expected to persist through much of the work week.
Updated at 1050 PM CDT Sun Oct 26 2025 - Showers will gradually taper off into Monday with continued cool temperatures in the lower 60s.
1235 AM EDT Mon Oct 27 2025 The upper trough will continue to drive our weather through the middle of the week.
- Low pressure system exiting the region, will bring isolated showers to the Goldern Triangle area today. A low pressure system will continue to slowly move east through the region today. As the low passes, winds will steadily become more northerly in its wake. This'll bring some slightly cooler drier into the region overnight. Otherwise, look for highs this afternoon to range from the middle 60s north to upper 70s south, with lows tonight falling into the low and middle 50s.
132 AM EDT Mon Oct 27 2025 - Cool and Mostly Dry this Week - Cool and Mostly Dry this Week Model guidance is in good agreement with the evolution of the longwave pattern this week with upper troughing bringing cooler than normal temperatures and low precipitation chances.
152 AM EDT Mon Oct 27 2025 High pressure will remain in place through the first half of the week, keeping conditions dry but also fairly cool. A low pressure system will then move in and bring widespread rain to the region late this week. Temperatures will fall below freezing tonight, which is the first widespread freeze across the region for the fall season. In addition, patchy fog/freezing fog will be possible, especially for locations in west- central NY. Temperatures Monday and Monday night will nearly be identical to today as highs will be in the 40s and 50s and lows fall below freezing once again.
High pressure and periods of weak to locally moderate Santa Ana winds will bring warmer and drier weather with a shallower marine layer this week. Strongest westerly winds were over mountain ridges and through the San Gorgonio Pass. High temperatures on Monday are expected to be 3 to 5 degrees warmer than today in and west of the mountains, but a few degrees cooler in the deserts. As the tough pushes inland and begins to dig southward through Utah, allowing high pressure to increase across the Great Basin.
- Scattered showers and thunderstorms today - Much cooler and drier air arrives for the second half of the week A weak cool front will move across the region later today and tonight preceded by scattered showers and a few thunderstorms. The lower level east to southeast flow will shift to southwest early this afternoon as the front gets closer bringing the more stable marine layer inland keeping rain chances near the coast from around Tampa Bay south lower while the interior and eastern half of the Florida peninsula see more numerous convection.
- Cooler with shower chances returning to end the week. High pressure remains in control across the Great Lakes, maintaining quiet conditions across the region.
Updated at 1230 AM CDT Mon Oct 27 2025 - A strong cold front will bring well below average temperatures mid-week. Any fog should burn off my mid Monday morning and weak ridging will continue during the day.
The timing of the rain remains somewhat uncertain as a complex area of low pressure develops to our south and west and moves into the area. A few areas of mist and drizzle have fallen from these clouds, mostly across the higher terrain, and this will continue to be possible for the rest of the night. High pressure will remain centered across western Quebec and eastern Ontario, while an area of low pressure will develop and progress slowly across the Mid- Atlantic.
1152 PM CDT Sun Oct 26 2025 -Unsettled weather is expected today and tonight associated with a passing upper level low; severe weather threat remains very low.
While the lower elevations of the forecast area will dry out overnight as the mid-level winds become more zonal, pockets of heavy snow are expected to continue for the Cascades.
251 AM MDT Mon Oct 27 2025 KEY MESSAGES: - Unsettled weather continues today as a ridge starts building over the region.
933 AM CDT Mon Oct 27 2025 - Rain is forecast for this morning through Tuesday night, with the highest chances (55-85 percent) Monday into Monday night. This low pressure is forecast to move northeast through the morning and early afternoon, which will continue to bring rain to central SD, with higher rainfall amounts more specifically in north central SD. With the help of some cold air advection pushing on the stationary front, the front will transition into a cold front and start moving east this afternoon through central SD, and northeastern SD and west central MN tonight into Tuesday.
A developing ridge of high pressure is poised to bring warming temperatures, clear skies and dry conditions this week. Daytime highs in late October for Reno-Tahoe International airport generally run in the lower 60s, while average highs for the Tahoe Basin are in the low 50s, This week, we will watch the thermometers climb to seasonal averages on Monday, then climb even higher the rest of the week.
- Low pressure system exiting the region, will bring isolated showers to the Goldern Triangle area today.
Currently, long wave upper level trough over the western and central CONUS, with the trough axis roughly over the Central and Northern Rockies. Afterwards, S/WV ridging builds into the north central CONUS mid week, followed by a potential clipper/short wave trough passage later in the work week.
721 AM EDT Mon Oct 27 2025 - Cool and Mostly Dry this Week - Cool and Mostly Dry this Week Model guidance is in good agreement with the evolution of the longwave pattern this week with upper troughing bringing cooler than normal temperatures and low precipitation chances.
High resolution model guidance has trended wetter as previous runs were too dry in the low levels. A broad and somewhat disorganized upper level trough will move across the Northern Rockies tonight and Monday. The trough dives southeast and strengthens late Monday and Tuesday. By late Tuesday it will develop into a closed low over eastern Kansas. As this trough passes just east of Colorado, a cold front drops south across the area bringing rain showers to the eastern plains Monday afternoon and early evening. Windy conditions are expected again Tuesday across the eastern plains as north-northwest flow aloft increases around the upper level low off to the southeast. Cooler air will move southward into the area with highs in the mid to upper 40s Tuesday. Some teens will be possible in the cooler locations.
608 AM CDT Mon Oct 27 2025 -Cool and damp weather continue today before another round of rain arrives tonight/Tuesday with a cold front. -Frost will be possible later in the week as much cooler air moves in. This morning, the upper low that has caused cloudy and wet weather around the region continues to slowly move east, away from the area. The next system to impact the area is an amplified mid-level trough, approaching from the northwest today. An associated cold front will bring rain, windy conditions and cooler temperatures tomorrow and into midweek. Mid-level ascent behind the cold front will allow a batch of rain to develop and move from west to east across the forecast area late this evening and tonight.