Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
455 AM EDT Tue Oct 15 2024 (Today through Wednesday) A broad upper trough will continue to dig over the E half of the U. At the surface, sprawling high pressure will move from the N MS Valley to W TN by late Wed. Low temperatures tonight will range from the lower 30s in the NE mountains to near 50 in the extreme SE.
247 AM CDT Tue Oct 15 2024 - Widespread freezing conditions tonight, likely ending the growing season for most.
1227 AM CDT Tue Oct 15 2024 Cooler and drier air has moved in behind the cold front, that pushed through the state yesterday. Across the state, cooler temperatures are being observed with some gusty winds and mostly clear skies.
357 AM EDT Tue Oct 15 2024 A deepening trough of low pressure will continue to bring periods of valley rain and higher elevation snowfall to the region through Wednesday, along with unseasonably cool temperatures. High pressure, sunnier skies and much warmer temperatures return for the end of the week and through the weekend. A large upper level low will continue to meander over the region, bringing another day or so of cool and unsettled weather. Much quieter weather is expected for the latter half of the week as high pressure builds over the area, both at the surface and aloft.
In the meantime, we are stuck in between with ridging hanging on for another day. Strong northeasterly winds accompany the cold front. Widespread lower 50s can be expected for many and even 40s across the higher elevations and northern half of the area. These temperatures will be some 10-20 degrees cooler than yesterday and 10 degrees below normal.
315 AM EDT Tue Oct 15 2024 - Cooler today with scattered showers near the lake shore - Continued cool tonight and Wednesday - Cold snap turns warm with fair weather into the weekend - Cooler today with scattered showers near the lake shore Temperatures are starting out in the lower to mid 30s at many locations and a continued feed of cool air from Canada will push against diurnal trend and limit temperature rise to around 50; h8 temps will remain around -4c. Temperatures will fall into the lower to mid 30s. The large dome of high pressure to the west responsible for the north winds will slip south to the mid MS Valley and we'll begin to tap a west wind Tuesday.
(Today through Wednesday) This AM, a cold front is stretched across the gulf coast with surface ridging across E Conus and much colder air across C AL. This colder air will get reinforced this evening as a stronger ridge spreads SWD across the ERN 2/3 of the US. This system will help our temperatures cool even further tonight as a 1032mb ridge center sinks into the KS/OK/MO area with NRLY flow into AL. Look for the lowest high temps this week on Wednesday topping out in the lower to mid 60s.
Scattered showers return Tuesday afternoon mainly along and north of interstate 40, and especially across the higher elevations of the eastern Tennessee and southwest Virginia mountains. Rain showers will change to light snow showers across the highest elevations late Today into tonight. Light snowfall possible across the highest elevations above 4000 ft. Much cooler This morning and during the day today with lows dropping into the 30s northeast sections. Surface ridging and a dry airmass has kept skies mostly clear to partly cloudy. The increased winds from the north/northwest will lift over the higher elevations. The highest elevations around Mount LeConte and Clingmans Dome could get a little more.
1214 AM CDT Tue Oct 15 2024 (Rest of tonight) High pressure remains the dominating factor locally, as the cold front that moved through last night has moved south of the Gulf Coast. Cooler, dry air will continue to filter into the region, as dewpoints have dropped into the 30s.
341 AM CDT Tue Oct 15 2024 Today and Tonight: Primary highlights for today: cooler, fall temps and fire danger potential today. Cooler, dryer air will gradually settle over the region, keeping afternoon temps ranging from the 70s in the north to the lower 80s in the south. By tonight, the first of several cooler nights will begin as temps fall into the 40s.
A weakening cold front continues to drift south across the area this evening, and is just south of I-10 at this time as evidenced by a 12 degree dewpoint difference between the Lake Charles Regional Airport (KLCH) and Chennault International Airport (KCWF) which is approximately 8 miles northeast of KLCH. The main reason for the dry weather will be a lack of moisture in the low to mid levels of the atmosphere.
Quite an enjoyable evening out there with temps sliding through the 70s and dew points in the high 50s to 60s.
240 AM EDT Tue Oct 15 2024 Cooler and unsettled weather is expected through midweek under upper troughing. Frost and freezing conditions at night will be possible for many this week. KEY MESSAGES: - Patchy frost is expected north of Pittsburgh and in the higher terrain tonight. ------------------------------------------------------------------- Broad upper troughing continues across the Great Lakes/Northeast this evening with northwest flow. 850mb temperatures drop to around -3C tonight with surface temperatures into the mid/lower 30s across portions of western PA and northern WV (especially the ridges). Cloud cover will help keep most of the area above-freezing, but areas of frost are expected north of Pittsburgh and in the Laurels.
Tonight will see central Indiana's first shot at more widespread frost and our NE counties will even see some freezing temperatures tonight. Clouds will help to keep warmer temperatures for the north-central and central portions of the forecast area while mostly clear skies to the east, south, and west will allow for frost potential and an area of freezing temps.
1001 PM MDT Mon Oct 14 2024 -Backdoor cool front will support cooler conds Tues -Warmer temperatures return during the first half of the week, along with elevated fire danger -Cooler and more unsettled late week Flow pattern will become increasingly active this week as a deep upper trough advects into western NOAM. Cooler weather can be expected Tues with WAA ramping up in the afternoon in the west, supporting pressure falls and increasing SE winds esp over northwest SD. Upper trough will move east into the Rockies and support a cold front thorough the region Thurs with continued breezy winds. Cold front aloft will move into the west later Thur and provide the focus for lift and associated rain and possible snow.
- A cold front will bring breezy conditions tonight into Wednesday morning and cooler temperatures for the rest of the week. (Today and tonight) The strongest cold front of the Autumn season (so far) is forecast to move south across our area this evening and tonight. This cold front is associated with an upper trough over the lower Great Lakes and mid-Mississippi Valley deepening into the eastern CONUS. With sunny skies and 850mb thermal ridging across the area, highs this afternoon will be well-above normal and mostly in the lower to mid 90s. The cold front is expected to move south into the northern Big Country by early evening, and then continue to push south across the rest of our area this evening and tonight. Much cooler air will follow the frontal passage and will be accompanied by gusty northeast winds.
1242 AM CDT Tue Oct 15 2024 - Widespread sub-freezing temperatures tonight which will end the growing season across the area. Sprawling Canadian high pressure continues to spread southwards today, with the high expected to center over the area by tomorrow morning. Patchy stratocumulus advecting off of Lake Superior is expected to continue into this evening, and any residual areas of cloud cover tonight will keep temperatures several degrees warmer than those areas that clear out. Elsewhere, sub-freezing temperatures in the upper 20s to low 30s are expected, but a few spots could stay above freezing where patchy cloud cover persists overnight. Daytime temperatures will remain cool tomorrow with highs in the low 50s. The high pressure begins to depart on Wednesday, with increasing southerly winds on the backside of the high ushering in warmer conditions to the region.
- Warmer weather returns late week, with highs in the 70s by the weekend. Water vapor imagery shows an upper trough along the Minnesota/Ontario border, and this will swing southeast overnight in the cyclonic flow. Have some concerns with potential for a little graupel mixing in with the rain, given the dry low levels and a pocket of cold air aloft with the trough (500 mb temps around -30C per the NAM model). Highest freeze potential Wednesday night will be near and east of I-57, closer to a ridge of high pressure that will be centered over western Kentucky by evening.
332 AM CDT Tue Oct 15 2024 - Sub-Freezing temperatures likely for many locations late tonight into Wednesday morning, Freeze Warning remains in effect.
Conditions are most favorable for a widespread frost and sub-freezing temperatures, and potentially an end to the growing season.
117 AM EDT Tue Oct 15 2024 Unsettled weather and below normal temperatures will persist through Wednesday, as we remain under the influence of an upper level low and northwesterly flow. Dry conditions and warmer temperatures will return for the later portions of the week. High pressure should bring generally dry conditions through the period, along with a gradual warming trend.
304 AM CDT Tue Oct 15 2024 - High confidence (90%) in temperatures falling below freezing tonight.
(Today through Wednesday) Pleasant weather is expected to persist through tonight with high pressure aloft and at the surface, as they continue to be the driving forces for the weather of Deep South Texas. Highs today will generally be in the low to mid 90s. Meanwhile, the low temperatures for the tonight are expected to be mostly in the 60s. However, areas along the coast should remain in the lower 70s. Things are expected to change Wednesday as a mid-level trough axis over the Appalachians swings eastward and pushes a backdoor cold front into the region.
1135 PM CDT Mon Oct 14 2024 Broad surface ridging lies from the upper Midwest clear down into AR and E OK. Clear skies, light winds and dry air in place in the wake of yesterday's cold front yield favorable conditions for radiational cooling. The going forecast heavily leaned toward the lower quartile (25th %ile) of the guidance spread and CONSMOS, both of which are pretty reliable in these type of scenarios.
(Today through Wednesday) Models and sfc analyses depict what could be considered as the first true FROPA of the season, with a trough/low complex over the NE CONUS pushing an associated sfc front across down into the central portions of the peninsula today. Meanwhile, an enlongated ridge remains in place across the GOMEX and most of the FL peninsula and allowing for a drier/relatively stable air mass to descend upon the state. Temperatures will remain around or slightly above normals with afternoon highs generally in the low to mid 80s. For morning lows, the Lake region and interior areas will cool down into the mid-upper 60s, while the coastal metro areas will remain in the low to mid 70s.
- A cold front will bring breezy conditions tonight into Wednesday morning and cooler temperatures for the rest of the week. (This evening through Tuesday) Early this afternoon, a cold front was stalled just north of the Interstate-10 corridor. Temperatures across the area ranged from the 80s behind the front to the low 90s ahead of the front. This front should lift back northward as a warm front late this evening and overnight and allow southerly flow to return for the area through Tuesday afternoon. Although winds are not expected to be particularly strong, they should advect a warm airmass back into the region and push high temperatures up into the low 90s tomorrow.
1242 AM EDT Tue Oct 15 2024 (Through Tuesday) A dry cold front continues to move through the region this afternoon and evening, ushering in a cooler and much drier air mass.
1208 AM CDT Tue Oct 15 2024 (This evening through Tuesday) Persistent mid to upper level ridging from the Big Bend to the Colorado Rockies will continue to weaken overnight and all but disappear Tuesday as a modest upper low over the Great Basin and a broad, deep upper low anchored over southern Ontario and Quebec essentially bridge together. The dissipating ridge combined with a significant shift to the south/southeast of the eastern North America trough will help a strong cold front drive southward through the southern Plains during the day Tuesday. This scenario would favor the warmer end of the range of possibilities.
The air mass will be pretty dry and that should limit fog potential tonight but some patchy fog will be possible mainly near and over warmer water ways. Another shot of cold air moves in tomorrow with a digging trough. Tonight, much cooler temperatures will move in with mid 30s to low 40s forecasted.
One more day with near record temperatures is expected today, before a cold front brings cooler conditions later tonight. SW winds combined with compressional heating ahead of an approaching cold front will lead to well above normal temperatures today.
Today will be a cool day in terms of temperatures! After morning lows in the lower to mid 40s, anticipating highs to only reach the 60s this afternoon.
* The first storm of the week arrives Wednesday and ushers in cooler temperatures as well as our initial round of showers, including snow showers in the highest terrain.
Once we get through today, our focus will shift to the north as a cold front finally approaches the region. Temperatures Wednesday behind the front will likely only top out in the lower 70s to lower 80s with the cooler temps in the northern areas and the warmer values in the southwestern counties.
The actual cold front will arrive late tonight and Wednesday with some more clouds and possibly a few showers/sprinkles. (12Z TAFS) VFR conditions are expected to prevail into early tonight, then some areas of MVFR ceilings will be possible late tonight into Wednesday as a cold front moves across the TAF sites. At the surface, this system will pull a strong cold front into the Florida Peninsula early Wednesday, with potentially a few showers developing along the frontal boundary.
(Today through Wednesday) A broad upper trough will continue to dig over the E half of the U. At the surface, sprawling high pressure will move from the N MS Valley to W TN by late Wed. Low temperatures tonight will range from the lower 30s in the NE mountains to near 50 in the extreme SE.
- Sub-Freezing temperatures likely for many locations late tonight into Wednesday morning, Freeze Warning remains in effect.
An area of low pressure will continue to bring high- based showers and thunderstorms to far northern Arizona through mid- week.
(Now through Wednesday night) A large upper level trough will amplify over the eastern states through midweek. Lows tonight will fall into the low to mid 40s inland to low 50s along the coast. Highs on Wednesday will be much cooler, in the mid and upper 60s.
A weak closed low over the southeastern Great Basin / eastern Mojave Desert will result in fairly consistent heights over the region, thus only minor changes in forecast high temperatures between yesterday and today. Meanwhile, a longwave trough will set up in the western CONUS associated with a center of low pressure located over southeastern Alaska / western British Columbia.
Shower activity will increase late tonight into Wednesday, with the highest rainfall totals expected along and near the lingering front over Modoc and Lake counties, while another weaker front moves to the coast.
743 AM EDT Tue Oct 15 2024 - Cooler today with scattered showers near the lake shore - Continued cool tonight and Wednesday - Cold snap turns warm with fair weather into the weekend - Cooler today with scattered showers near the lake shore Temperatures are starting out in the lower to mid 30s at many locations and a continued feed of cool air from Canada will push against diurnal trend and limit temperature rise to around 50; h8 temps will remain around -4c. Temperatures will fall into the lower to mid 30s. The large dome of high pressure to the west responsible for the north winds will slip south to the mid MS Valley and we'll begin to tap a west wind Tuesday.
702 AM EDT Tue Oct 15 2024 (Today through Wednesday) Models and sfc analyses depict what could be considered as the first true FROPA of the season, with a trough/low complex over the NE CONUS pushing an associated sfc front across down into the central portions of the peninsula today. Meanwhile, an enlongated ridge remains in place across the GOMEX and most of the FL peninsula and allowing for a drier/relatively stable air mass to descend upon the state. Temperatures will remain around or slightly above normals with afternoon highs generally in the low to mid 80s. For morning lows, the Lake region and interior areas will cool down into the mid-upper 60s, while the coastal metro areas will remain in the low to mid 70s.
- Warming trend during the late week into the weekend as high pressure brings dry conditions. Mid and upper level low with the associated cold thermal trough resides over the Great Lakes and northeastern CONUS today. These cold temperatures with a steady northerly flow in the low levels has brought persistent lake effect clouds and rain showers off Lake Huron since yesterday. Some clearing may bring lead to frost development across western portions of the CWA tonight as temperatures approach freezing.
Trough axis just entering northern portions of the forecast area will drift south toward the I-70 corridor toward midday, then clearing southern zones mid-late afternoon. Clouds and chances for scattered showers will accompany this feature, with cool northerly gusts to 20 knots keeping afternoon highs generally in the low-mid 50s. Tonight will see central Indiana's first shot at more widespread frost and our NE counties will even see some freezing temperatures tonight. Clouds will help to keep warmer temperatures for the north-central and central portions of the forecast area while mostly clear skies to the east, south, and west will allow for frost potential and an area of freezing temps.
559 AM CDT Tue Oct 15 2024 - Widespread freezing conditions tonight, likely ending the growing season for most.
727 AM EDT Tue Oct 15 2024 A deepening trough of low pressure will continue to bring periods of valley rain and higher elevation snowfall to the region through Wednesday, along with unseasonably cool temperatures. High pressure, sunnier skies and much warmer temperatures return for the end of the week and through the weekend. A large upper level low will continue to meander over the region, bringing another day or so of cool and unsettled weather. Much quieter weather is expected for the latter half of the week as high pressure builds over the area, both at the surface and aloft.
The greater surge of cooler air is currently pushing south through the Mid MS Valley region, and we expect the cold advection and wind to increase in our area later this afternoon. At that time given the low RH, the fire danger threat should peak. /EC/ Today and Tonight: Primary highlights for today: cooler, fall temps and fire danger potential today. Cooler, drier air will gradually settle over the region, keeping afternoon temps ranging from the 70s in the north to the lower 80s in the south. By tonight, the first of several cooler nights will begin as temps fall into the 40s.
517 AM CDT Tue Oct 15 2024 (Today) Light winds and cool temperatures presently across the area, but a second surge of cooler Canadian air is approaching through the Central Plains. Later arrival of cooler airmass across southern areas will result in a decent spread in high temps this afternoon, from mid 60s to mid 80s with very low humidity once again.
543 AM CDT Tue Oct 15 2024 (Today and tonight) The cold front that is due this afternoon is currently moving across the Missouri River. Current forecasted highs reflect more of a MOS blend which has a slightly faster FROPA and is slightly cooler than the NBM. The trend has been cooler over the past few days with MOS guidance being even cooler (upper 30s in Lubbock). As of 2 AM, temperatures behind the front are, on the low side, near freezing while most temps are in the upper 30s to mid 40s. Forecasted lows have been nudged down from the NBM but remain warmer than MOS. One case that would allow for cooler temps would be overnight winds becoming light, but currently winds are expected to remain in the 10-15 mph range through sunrise.
620 AM CDT Tue Oct 15 2024 Today and Tonight: Primary highlights for today: cooler, fall temps and fire danger potential today. Cooler, dryer air will gradually settle over the region, keeping afternoon temps ranging from the 70s in the north to the lower 80s in the south. By tonight, the first of several cooler nights will begin as temps fall into the 40s.
1029 AM EDT Tue Oct 15 2024 A deepening trough of low pressure will continue to bring periods of valley rain and higher elevation snowfall to the region through Wednesday, along with unseasonably cool temperatures. High pressure, sunnier skies and much warmer temperatures return for the end of the week and through the weekend. Seeing a brief break in precipitation for all but the highest elevations this morning. A large upper level low will continue to meander over the region, bringing another day or so of cool and unsettled weather. Much quieter weather is expected for the latter half of the week as high pressure builds over the area, both at the surface and aloft.
The next system then brings cooler temperatures and generally light precipitation chances by midweek, with breezy to gusty northerly winds and elevated to critical fire weather concerns following through the end of the week. Today will continue to see clear skies, calm conditions, and near normal to slightly above normal temperatures across interior NorCal, as upper level ridging begins to progress eastward out of the area. Valley highs today will be in the low to mid 80s, while higher elevations will see temperatures around the 60s and 70s for the most part.
331 AM MDT Tue Oct 15 2024 - Cooler and breezy conditions today. - Cooler and more unsettled late in the week. A slow-moving upper ridge is persisting across the northern Rockies to the northern Plains. This will bring cooler air, over eastern SD, westward into the CWA, resulting in cooler temperatures than yesterday. Very gusty winds will continue across central SD through Wednesday and bring much warmer air into the region. possibly warmer near the north/northeast foothills, with downsloping winds. Models continue to show a deep trough developing across the western CONUS for the second half of the week.
1015 AM EDT Tue Oct 15 2024 Canadian high pressure will build southward towards the Appalachian Mountains by Wednesday.
441 AM CDT Tue Oct 15 2024 - High confidence (90%) in temperatures falling below freezing tonight.
455 AM MDT Tue Oct 15 2024 - Cooler and breezy conditions today. - Cooler and more unsettled late in the week. A slow-moving upper ridge is persisting across the northern Rockies to the northern Plains. This will bring cooler air, over eastern SD, westward into the CWA, resulting in cooler temperatures than yesterday. Very gusty winds will continue across central SD through Wednesday and bring much warmer air into the region. possibly warmer near the north/northeast foothills, with downsloping winds. Models continue to show a deep trough developing across the western CONUS for the second half of the week.
640 AM CDT Tue Oct 15 2024 (Today through Wednesday) Pleasant weather is expected to persist through tonight with high pressure aloft and at the surface, as they continue to be the driving forces for the weather of Deep South Texas. Highs today will generally be in the low to mid 90s. Meanwhile, the low temperatures for the tonight are expected to be mostly in the 60s. However, areas along the coast should remain in the lower 70s. Things are expected to change Wednesday as a mid-level trough axis over the Appalachians swings eastward and pushes a backdoor cold front into the region.