Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1231 PM MST Wed Dec 11 2024 KEY MESSAGES: - High pressure tonight into Thursday, bringing valley stratus and localized fog. GOES satellite imagery this afternoon shows a building ridge of high pressure across the Northern Rockies, while a broad low- pressure system approaches the Oregon/Washington coast.
1241 PM CST Wed Dec 11 2024 (Rest of today through Thursday) Satellite imagery shows general clearing this afternoon with some snow showers within the upper trough axis. As this trough shifts eastward this evening, a few isolated snow showers will be possible across portions of northern Middle Tennessee and the Cumberland Plateau. Temperatures remain about 5 to 10 degF below seasonal normals in the wake of the departing cold front.
Pressure gradient winds behind the cold front will continue through the afternoon, with northwesterly gusts above 30mph at times. As the boundary layer is allowed to decouple, ideal radiational cooling conditions will allow temperatures to drop into the 20s across northern counties and normally cooler sheltered locations. The forecast remains on track for us to reach the low to mid 50s for highs.
The wind in the Rogue Valley will also to keep precipitation at bay, meaning we could get little to no precipitation tonight which some of the high res models are suggesting.
200 PM CST Wed Dec 11 2024 - Arctic high pressure will maintain cold temperatures and subzero wind chills through Thursday.
Much colder conditions are expected tonight with wind chills in the teens in many places and single digits in the higher elevations. This Evening/Tonight Currently this afternoon, a deep trough is moving over the area with a cold front having pushed off to our east. Westerly to northwesterly flow will persist through the night with recent CAA allowing for the area to drop well below freezing. Thursday and Thursday Night During the day on Thursday, troughing will remain in place overhead with high pressure set up across the area.
Second, an additional dry cold front will near Arkansas from the north and enter northern Arkansas during Wednesday evening into early Wednesday night. Temperatures Wednesday afternoon will only reach the low 40s to mid 50s throughout the state. THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT: Upper lvl flow over Arkansas will transition during the day from northwesterly to zonal out of the due west with some slight ridging overall by late Thursday. High temperatures will increase a few degrees with a range from the low 50s to low 60s across the Natural State.
High pressure builds in tonight with clearing sky conditions for tonight and Thursday. Discussion: Satellite imagery shows general clearing this afternoon with some snow showers within the upper trough axis. As this trough shifts eastward this evening, a few isolated snow showers will be possible across portions of northern Middle Tennessee and the Cumberland Plateau. Temperatures remain about 5 to 10 degF below seasonal normals in the wake of the departing cold front.
The cirrus will linger Thursday, however SW winds will persist and overall conditions are expected to be similar to that of today, with highs potentially a degree or two warmer.
619 PM CST Wed Dec 11 2024 (Tonight) A couple more re-enforcing cold fronts move southeast late this afternoon and overnight across the area.
A few spots in inland SE GA will briefly drop to freezing (32 F) but not long enough for a Freeze Warning (Temperature <= 32 F for 2+ hours). pdf The main line of convection associated with pre-frontal troughing has now moved to the south and east of the forecast area. The front itself is now racing down the Florida Peninsula, with high pressure beginning to build across the region in its wake.
517 PM CST Wed Dec 11 2024 (Rest of today through Thursday) Satellite imagery shows general clearing this afternoon with some snow showers within the upper trough axis. As this trough shifts eastward this evening, a few isolated snow showers will be possible across portions of northern Middle Tennessee and the Cumberland Plateau. Temperatures remain about 5 to 10 degF below seasonal normals in the wake of the departing cold front.
435 PM MST Wed Dec 11 2024 Updated at 433 PM MST Wed Dec 11 2024 - Warming trend begins Thursday, warmer conditions into the weekend.
Accumlations will be a dusting up to a half inch in the higher elevations, and mainly in areas where temperatures are near or below freezing. Much colder conditions are expected tonight with wind chills in the teens in many places and single digits in the higher elevations. This Evening/Tonight Currently this afternoon, a deep trough is moving over the area with a cold front having pushed off to our east. Westerly to northwesterly flow will persist through the night with recent CAA allowing for the area to drop well below freezing. Thursday and Thursday Night During the day on Thursday, troughing will remain in place overhead with high pressure set up across the area.
640 PM CST Wed Dec 11 2024 - Hazardous wind chills between -30F and -40F, mainly along and north of the highway 200 corridor, will continue through Thursday morning. Most of the convective streamers seem to have dissipated, leaving mostly clear skies and cold high pressure over the region.
Early evening IR satellite imagery is showing clear skies filling in across the area as the cold front pushes south of the forecast area. (00Z TAFS) Skies are clearing out across the area in the wake of the cold front that passed through today.
Updated at 230 PM MST Wed Dec 11 2024 - Warming trend begins Thursday, warmer conditions into the weekend.
542 PM CST Wed Dec 11 2024 Tonight through next Wednesday: High pressure will settle over the region region tonight,following this afternoons gusty winds. Overnight low temperatures will drop into the the lower 30s to upper 20s leading to some light frost potential especially across the northern portions of the CWA.
551 PM CST Wed Dec 11 2024 (Tonight through Thursday night) Temperatures this morning were in the low to mid 30s across much of the region. Some locales likely saw the first freeze of the season but most stayed above the freezing line. The synoptic atmospheric pattern for the short term period features a strong mid-level low and a trough with South Texas on the lee side. At the surface, high pressure over Mexico that'll translate eastward towards the central Gulf over the next several days. Tomorrow will be warmer with afternoon highs rebounding to the low 70s.
Our 00Z sounding shows the dry air associated with the cold front is building in. (Rest of today through Thursday) Satellite imagery shows general clearing this afternoon with some snow showers within the upper trough axis. As this trough shifts eastward this evening, a few isolated snow showers will be possible across portions of northern Middle Tennessee and the Cumberland Plateau. Temperatures remain about 5 to 10 degF below seasonal normals in the wake of the departing cold front.
High pressure will persist through Thursday morning before a quick moving trough moves through beginning late Thursday afternoon.
(This afternoon through Thursday) Cold front has moved into the Florida Peninsula. High pressure will build in from the west. All of the precip associated with the cold front has moved well east of the CWA this afternoon. Northwest winds will continue tomorrow, but speeds will be much less as a high pressure center moves directly overhead.
536 PM CST Wed Dec 11 2024 - Arctic high pressure will maintain cold temperatures and subzero wind chills through Thursday.
624 PM EST Wed Dec 11 2024 A cold front moves into the area this afternoon and evening, snow showers are expected, along with much cooler temperatures. A warming trend is expected going into the weekend, as an area of low pressure brings the next chance of rain. Regional radar shows the expansion and intensity of snow showers increasing in Indiana, ahead of and along a cold front moving in from the west. Surfaces may then melt the snow, increasing the potential for refreeze as cooler air moves in. While high pressure would typically bring quiet conditions, increasing clouds will be noticeable Thursday afternoon and early evening.
919 PM EST Wed Dec 11 2024 A cold front moves into the area this afternoon and evening, snow showers are expected, along with much cooler temperatures. A warming trend is expected going into the weekend, as an area of low pressure brings the next chance of rain. A cold front will continue progressing through the area this evening. Warmer temperatures and more moderate wind chills are forecast south of I-70. While high pressure would typically bring quiet conditions, increasing clouds will be noticeable Thursday afternoon and early evening.
(This evening through Thursday) A prominent upper-level trough is depicted on GOES-East water vapor imagery and 500 mb mesoanalysis. As such, high pressure approaching the region tonight with clear skies and lessening winds will promote radiational cooling - lows in the mid 20s are forecast across our northern valleys with lower 30s across our southeastern counties.
(Today) Quiet/seasonably cool wx conditions will continue across the mid TN Valley for this Thu, as a strong dome of high pressure at the sfc builds more eastward into much of the region. Near zonal flow aloft will also remain fairly entrenched across the area, as an upper low/trough pattern rotates eastward thru the Great Lakes.
1142 PM CST Wed Dec 11 2024 - Hazardous wind chills between -30F and -40F, mainly along and north of the highway 200 corridor, will continue through Thursday morning. Continued quiet and cold with Arctic high pressure overhead. UPDATE Most of the convective streamers seem to have dissipated, leaving mostly clear skies and cold high pressure over the region. As the high moves southeast Thursday night into Friday, return southerly flow replaces the light winds.
313 AM EST Thu Dec 12 2024 Cold and blustery conditions likely today behind a cold front, with a warming trend forecast into the weekend.
1044 PM CST Wed Dec 11 2024 (This evening through Thursday) A prominent upper-level trough is depicted on GOES-East water vapor imagery and 500 mb mesoanalysis. As such, high pressure approaching the region tonight with clear skies and lessening winds will promote radiational cooling - lows in the mid 20s are forecast across our northern valleys with lower 30s across our southeastern counties.
A warm front on Friday will bring warmer temperatures for the weekend.
Water vapor imagery early Thursday morning shows a pair of troughs over the West Coast region: a prominent trough over California and a low- amplitude trough farther south over the Baja of California.
- Slightly warmer today with increasing southwest winds this afternoon. (Today and tonight) Short wave upper level ridging will move overhead today followed quickly by falling heights and lee surface cyclogenesis ahead of a sharp trough moving across the Great Basin overnight tonight. Quite a bit of cirrus is already moving over the low-amplitude ridge, but the amount and thickness of that cirrus should peak this evening into the early morning hours before drier air on the south side of the Great Basin trough begins to move overhead. Slightly increased wind speeds overnight tonight in addition to the abundant cirrus should keep low temperatures on the warmer side of guidance in line with the NBM.
High pressure returns today and Friday. Scattered snow showers and flurries taper off from west to east early this morning, then dry weather takes hold for the rest of the day as high pressure builds in beneath zonal upper level flow. Strongest winds could gust over 40 mph at times for the higher mountain ridges, while 20 to 35 mph gusts are possible for the rest of the area this morning. Otherwise, dry under the influence of high pressure during the short term period.
214 AM EST Thu Dec 12 2024 Drier weather is expected today in the wake of a strong cold front.
As the cold front that affected us earlier today continues to move away from the area, winds have begun to diminish. Overnight lows are expected to drop to around the freezing mark for most locations. Key Message(s): - Dry weather and cooler than normal temperatures. A cold start Friday morning with temps in the low 30's and upper 20's is expected and high temps in the afternoon will remain in the low-mid 50's, again despite clear skies. The primary trough axis that lingered over the northeast US for the previous few days will finally depart and make way for a lower amplitude and complicated pattern aloft.
947 PM CST Wed Dec 11 2024 - Hazardous wind chills between -30F and -40F, mainly along and north of the highway 200 corridor, will continue through Thursday morning. UPDATE Most of the convective streamers seem to have dissipated, leaving mostly clear skies and cold high pressure over the region. As the high moves southeast Thursday night into Friday, return southerly flow replaces the light winds.
Sunny skies will continue today, and with full sunshine highs should warm considerably and reach the low 40s in our northeast up to near 50 in our southwest. A gradual warmup will continue into Friday as heights rise aloft due to weak upper level ridging building over the eastern CONUS. Lows will be several degrees warmer Friday morning in the low to mid 30s for most areas, with highs reaching the low to mid 50s areawide. (Friday Night through next Thursday) An upper low moving out of the Plains into the Midwest will prompt gulf moisture to return northward into the area over the weekend, with dewpoints rising into the 40s/50s.
245 AM EST Thu Dec 12 2024 Strong high pressure will build into the region from the upper Midwest today through Friday bringing chilly temperatures. Strong high pressure will extend from the upper Midwest to the south- Atlantic states today and tonight. CAA this morning will generate a few wind gusts around 15-18 mph through early afternoon, then winds will begin to tail off rather quickly through mid and late afternoon as the high pressure arrives overhead. Expect sunny skies and highs in the mid 40s north ranging into the lower 50s south are favored today.
1132 PM CST Wed Dec 11 2024 (This evening through Friday night) No significant weather concerns in the short term as high pressure moves eastward across the area. Coldest night will be tonight and some places could briefly hit freezing near daybreak, mainly across southwestern Mississippi and through the Pearl and Pascagoula drainage areas. As the high begins to shift eastward tomorrow winds will turn more easterly and temperatures will begin to moderate, gradually warming into the mid 60s by Friday afternoon. Overnight lows will also moderate, and will be warmer than normal by Friday night.
1140 PM CST Wed Dec 11 2024 (Rest of tonight) West-northwest flow aloft of 65-75 knots will persist across the TN Valley overnight, in the wake of a negatively-tilted longwave trough ejecting northeastward and away from the region. With dewpoint depressions predicted to slowly shrink as we approach 12Z, some patchy freezing fog will also be possible in a few locations (particularly near large bodies of water).
Breezy conditions along the ridgeline of the mountains will support wind chills in the teens overnight into tomorrow (Thursday) morning. Martin (This afternoon through Thursday) Cold front has moved into the Florida Peninsula. High pressure will build in from the west. All of the precip associated with the cold front has moved well east of the CWA this afternoon. Northwest winds will continue tomorrow, but speeds will be much less as a high pressure center moves directly overhead.
A back-door cold front may sneak into the northern Texas Panhandle by Thursday afternoon. The air behind this cold front is modified arctic air, so it will be interesting to see if we get a tight gradient of temperatures across it.
Key Message(s): - Cooler and dry today. High pressure ridging into the area with the cold front now well off the coast of the southeastern US. Well below average 850mb temperatures in place, around -2 to -3C which supports surface temperatures near freezing early this morning. While the center of the high will remain just north of the area, there still will be somewhat favorable radiational cooling tonight, leading to lows around 30. Key Message(s): - Dry with cooler than normal temperatures.
A few spots in inland SE GA will briefly drop to freezing (32 F) but not long enough for a Freeze Warning (Temperature <= 32 F for 2+ hours). pdf The main line of convection associated with pre-frontal troughing has now moved to the south and east of the forecast area. The front itself is now racing down the Florida Peninsula, with high pressure beginning to build across the region in its wake. (Thursday through Friday night) The aforementioned high pressure will remain the dominant synoptic feature over the next few days. As this high slides to the northeast across the Carolinas, winds will become northeasterly. Temperatures will bottom out in the lower 40s Thursday night, so the risk of frost will be low. The highest chance of rain will remain over the Atlantic coastal waters through Friday night.
(Rest of tonight) West-northwest flow aloft of 65-75 knots will persist across the TN Valley overnight, in the wake of a negatively-tilted longwave trough ejecting northeastward and away from the region. With dewpoint depressions predicted to slowly shrink as we approach 12Z, some patchy freezing fog will also be possible in a few locations (particularly near large bodies of water).
(Today and tonight) Zonal flow aloft sets up following the departure of a large upper trough off the Northeastern US with a southern stream upper low over the Desert Southwest. At the surface, high pressure will build over the southeastern US states and begin sliding up the east coast toward the Carolinas resulting in northeasterly flow for the area.
1110 PM CST Wed Dec 11 2024 (Tonight through Thursday night) Temperatures this morning were in the low to mid 30s across much of the region. Some locales likely saw the first freeze of the season but most stayed above the freezing line. The synoptic atmospheric pattern for the short term period features a strong mid-level low and a trough with South Texas on the lee side. At the surface, high pressure over Mexico that'll translate eastward towards the central Gulf over the next several days. Tomorrow will be warmer with afternoon highs rebounding to the low 70s.
1236 AM EST Thu Dec 12 2024 A cold front moves into the area this afternoon and evening, snow showers are expected, along with much cooler temperatures. A warming trend is expected going into the weekend, as an area of low pressure brings the next chance of rain. A cold front will continue progressing through the area this evening. Warmer temperatures and more moderate wind chills are forecast south of I-70. While high pressure would typically bring quiet conditions, increasing clouds will be noticeable Thursday afternoon and early evening. There will be some WAA on Friday, however there will be a range in temperatures with highs below freezing on Friday across the far northern portions of the region and then in the 40s near and south of the Ohio River.
A cold front has certainly made its presence known across the Florida Keys this evening. This line was more noticeable as it moved through the Lower Keys but dissipated as it reached the Middle Keys. The western waters are seeing the highest speeds right now with Sand Key regularly near 25 knots sustain, gusting to 30 to 34 knots. More noticeably the dew points have fallen into the lower 60s making conditions much more comfortable than 24 hours ago. This is not uncommon as models struggle with the timing of cold fronts and the subsequent freshening of breezes behind it. With that said, we will see enough moisture in the low levels to support a stratus or stratocu deck through the overnight and into tomorrow. A strong cold front has pushed its way through the Keys this evening.
Northerly winds have ushered in much cooler drier air with temperatures falling into the 30s and 40s early this morning and when combined with the winds we'll see wind chills in the upper 20s and 30s across most of the region. Winds will veer to northeast today and continue through the weekend as high pressure moves to along the eastern U.
(Tonight through Thursday night) A deep mid to upper level trough covers the eastern half of the country with northwesterly flow over Texas. A drier airmass has moved into the region behind yesterday's cold front. Low temperatures Thursday will be a couple of degrees warmer than this morning, but some spots will drop below freezing again. By Thursday morning the low level flow will be southeasterly and this will begin to return warmer, moister air to the region. Warming will be slow during the day Thursday and highs will only be two to three degrees warmer than today. Thursday night will bring significantly warmer air and lows Friday morning will be around 20 degrees warmer than Thursday.
254 AM CST Thu Dec 12 2024 - Dry weather conditions are in store for Thursday and Friday as high pressure builds into the region.
After a cool start with most places reaching the freezing mark, today's highs are forecast to reach the upper 50s and lower 60s across the southern Edwards Plateau and Hill Country to mid 60s along the I-35 corridor and coastal plains area. Overnight lows should be warmer (in the 50s)with the cloud coverage and winds out of the southeast around 5 to 10 mph.
1209 AM EST Thu Dec 12 2024 Gusty west and northwest winds in the wake of a cold front will continue bringing in much cooler and drier air as high pressure builds in from the west. Otherwise, the upper trof axis will lift NE of our area tonight and early Thursday, with heights steadily increasing thru the rest of the near-term period. At the sfc, the departing cold front will move off the Atlantic Coast as broad high pressure spreads over the Southeast from the west. The high will shift NE on Thursday and is expected to be centered just to our north by the end of the period late Thurs/early Fri. With the pressure gradient relaxing, winds will be notably lighter on Thursday (more so over the lower terrain) with directions becoming more vrb by the afternoon.
Surface analysis reveals a stalling cold front stretching from Kansas up toward Lake Michigan. The resultant warm front will lift northward into central and eastern Kansas throughout the afternoon and should have sufficient moisture to work with for rain and drizzle especially along and east of I-135. The latest mid-range models suggest most of this activity should occur in regions with above-freezing temperatures within the forecast area, so the risk for freezing drizzle appears minimal at this point.
However, dew points are running mostly stable with minor increases, indicating a limit on further cooling near or just below the freezing mark for area sites. Otherwise, a few urban locales may stay just above freezing with overnight low temperatures ranging from the upper 20s to mid 30s. Meanwhile, flow aloft will transition to a more zonal pattern and allow for slightly warmer temperatures from the upper 50s to lower 60s on Thursday afternoon.
An upper-level ridge, evident on water vapor imagery, is beginning to move into the Intermountain west and will continue to do so through late Thursday. Temperatures are expected to remain above normal east of the Divide, especially in lower elevations, with ridging overhead. By Friday, a trough is expected to trek across the central Rockies/Colorado. Guidance has been trending more and more south on the path of this trough so snowfall chances west of the Divide have also trended down.
- Cooler with some windy conditions over the southern Mtns late Thursday into Friday.
This high will continue tracking east northeast tonight and become centered over our southeast zones by sunrise. As the center of the high shifts to our southeast though, a light return flow will begin in our southwest. This will hold our southwest a degree or two above freezing while the remainder of the CWA bottoms our near 30F.