Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Currently - A nearly cut off upper level low is resulting in pressure falls off the Atlantic Coast. This has displaced the Atlantic ridge southward into South Florida and the Keys. Perhaps there is some slight deformation/troughiness expressed across the western Bahamas and the Florida Straits. Short Term Update - The Atlantic ridge will remain draped across the Keys through the overnight period. Forcing will remain lack luster and the low level inhibition is expected to be sufficient to squash most showers. Expect seasonably warm and humid conditions with lows in the lower to mid 80s and dew points remaining in the mid 70s. Troughing off the southeast Atlantic Coast will keep the Atlantic ridge weak and suppressed southward across our area.
353 AM EDT Sun Jul 28 2024 Weak high pressure moves across the region through tonight, keeping conditions dry. High pressure will shift offshore this afternoon with winds turning around from the south allowing temps to climb into the low 90s. Warmer tonight with lows staying above 70 with increasing humidity. A broad mid-level trough over the Great Lks and upper OH Valley will induce a sfc trof across the area Monday allowing warmth and humidity to increase across the area. Showers and thunderstorms appear likely Monday afternoon west of the Blue Ridge.
(Today through Monday afternoon) High pressure finally migrates east into West Texas today beginning a warming trend that will last into mid-week.
(Today and tonight) Upper level ridging currently centered over southern AZ and NM will begin moving into the area today. For tonight, another warm, muggy night with lows in the low to mid 70s for most areas.
KEY MESSAGES: - Dry weather continues ------------------------------------------------------------------- A brief blocking pattern will develop today with as an upper low deepens over the Atlantic, off the New England coast, and a weakening trough slowly moving across the Midwest. As the lower levels continue to warm under southwest flow, the mid and upper levels will see dry air advecting in on the backside of the Atlantic low. Current NBM probs of MaxT >90 are generally 60 to 90% south of I-80 and west of the ridges.
Cold front now well south of the area with high building in from the north. Lows generally in the low to mid 60s with traditionally colder spots in the lower 60s. Drier air moves overhead along with the center of high pressure in our vicinity Sunday morning. The main forecast challenge will be highs due to the cooler high pressure ridging down from the north, which could drop temps by a couple degrees from the current forecast. Went slightly cooler than guidance, particularly for SE NC, with highs in the mid to upper 80s. Mid to upper trough shifts eastward Thurs into Fri and should see mainly diurnal locally driven convection with a hot and humid air mass in place.
Smoke from local and regional wildfires will be noticeable throughout the Northern Rockies, with the highest concentration being along and south of I-90 in western Montana, and all of north-central Idaho. A broad trough of low pressure off the coast of British Columbia will begin to move eastward late in the evening, that will bring a 20% probability of nocturnal thunderstorms to western Montana and Clearwater County of Idaho.
This trend likely continues the next few hours through sunrise as the low level jet (primary forcing) weakens and shifts east out of the forecast area. - Monday As the low in the PNW nears the Dakotas the main piece of uncertainty in the evolution of the day will be moisture recovery. This is would be the high end scenario for Monday with a lower end being scattered discrete cells with more baseline hazards of 1" hail, 60 mph wind, and a low tornado threat as weaker moisture recovery promotes higher LCLs with potential capping issues and less low level CAPE.
Ensemble means have the high center reconsolidating to our east the first half of the week, with a little stronger southerly flow opening the door for a weak inverted trough to push into SE AZ around mid week. A strong H7 theta-e ridge should extend further north through most of AZ and even northward as this happens. As high pressure builds mid- week, high temperatures should rise a bit and minimum relative humidities should fall by a few percentage points.
Global guidance continues to highlight a mid-level trough in the ArkLaMiss region to the northwest with a building high pressure system over the northern Gulf. Nighttime temperatures will drop in the low 70s. More rain in the forecast heading into tomorrow thanks to the mid level trough to our northwest. /CR/ By Sunday evening into the beginning of the work week, an upper trough is progged to track northeast of the forecast area. On Monday, the highest potential for precipitation remains across the southeast as the moist airmass dissipates over the southern portions of the region.
1257 AM EDT Sun Jul 28 2024 High pressure over central Pennsylvania will keep fair and comfortable weather over the region tonight.
The mid to upper level trough that has plagued us these last few days will begin to shift the northwest today and high pressure will build into the area from the east.
An upper level low will track across the Midwest through the remainder of the weekend and with a moist airmass in place will lead to scattered to numerous showers and storms.
(Today through Monday) To wrap up the weekend into the new week, the trough will move across the US east coast assisting the frontal boundary further into the southeastern US.
414 AM EDT Sun Jul 28 2024 High pressure remains over the area through this afternoon. However, with increased confidence in the track of offshore low pressure, and an upper cutoff low, chances of precipitation by late in the day are possible mainly across the twin forks of Long Island. Meanwhile, the upper low tracks northwestward near eastern Long Island and through New England, and into southeastern Canada tonight through Monday night. With the upper low tracking north Monday night, and some isentropic lift, have kept at least slight chances through the night. A departing upper low over the Northeast at the start of the period will open up a parade of disturbances in the westerlies through the upcoming week.
(Today) Rainfall/showers will gradually spread into the mid TN Valley from the west later this morning, as an upper trough axis over the Midwest/lower MS Valley lifts into the OH Valley region. High pressure layered across the Gulf region will allow moisture to surge into the area, as PWATs climb to near/just over 2 inches. Given the cloud cover/rainfall, highs later today will struggle to surpass the lower/mid 80s.
1232 AM CDT Sun Jul 28 2024 Kept the low PoPs and expanded area to the west a bit from previous forecast for the remaining showers and isolated storms remaining, which should be done by 03Z. Lacy (Through Tonight) An upper level low remains atop the region, leading to the development of widely scattered small showers late this morning and into the afternoon within the moisture plume evident on water vapor satellite stretched across southeast Oklahoma into western Arkansas.
(Today through Monday) An upper level low near the Kansas/Missouri border will open and lift northeast through the day. What's left of the mid and upper level shear axis is forecast to pinch off into an inverted trough across the Rio Grande Plains and southern Edwards Plateau today and eventually a weak, compact low tonight and Monday. However, isolated showers may continue Sunday night into Monday morning near the weak mid and upper level low, in an areas of better low and mid level moisture and forcing near San Antonio and along the U. Warmer temperatures are forecast Monday, with highs in the low to mid 90s across the Hill Country, I-35 corridor, and Coastal Plains to upper 90s to around 100 along the Rio Grande.
Things begin to change by Monday as H500 ridging to the west expands east over the state.
424 AM EDT Sun Jul 28 2024 - Pattern shift to warm and wet with heavy rain possible - Potential for Thunderstorms this week - Pattern shift to warm and wet with heavy rain possible Models remain in fair agreement, while fair weather will continue through the first half of the day, a negatively tilted upper level trough will be impetus to bring copious mid level moisture along with warm air advection that will begin a period of potential afternoon convection. Tomorrow will bring better CAPE values, with southerly warm air advection out ahead of a frontal boundary out ahead of the before mentioned trough.
(Today and tonight) After a few mornings of nuisance thunderstorms, no precipitation is expected this morning with the absence of any notable forcing as a ridge builds over the area. Upper heights slightly increased from yesterday will subsequently allow for highs to be a few degrees warmer.
/NEW/ /Through Sunday Night/ Hotter weather and lower rain chances are expected the remainder of the weekend due to high pressure building in from the west. Lows Sunday night will be a few degrees warmer with middle and upper 70s.
Accompanying the drier air will be locally breezy afternoon southwest winds and slightly cooler temperatures. High pressure aloft was centered over extreme southeast Arizona during the early morning hours, continuing to be pushed south and eastward by a trough moving across the northwest United States. The same pattern will remain in place until later this week when the high migrates back northward allowing monsoon moisture to push back across northern portions of the state.
Given the cloud cover and precipitation chances, along with substantial wildfire smoke, expect afternoon highs to range from the lower 80s west to the upper 80s east. Dry zonal flow to weak ridging aloft develops on Monday, cutting off the SW Monsoonal flow.
/Issued 1135 PM CDT Sat Jul 27 2024/ /Through Sunday Night/ Hotter weather and lower rain chances are expected the remainder of the weekend due to high pressure building in from the west. Lows Sunday night will be a few degrees warmer with middle and upper 70s. /NEW/ /Monday Onward/ A streak of uncomfortably hot weather will begin at the start of the work week as a mid level ridge plants itself overhead.
A brief blocking pattern will develop today with as an upper low deepens over the Atlantic, off the New England coast, and a weakening trough slowly moving across the Midwest. As the lower levels continue to warm under southwest flow, the mid and upper levels will see dry air advecting in on the backside of the Atlantic low. Current NBM probs of MaxT >90 are generally 60 to 90% south of I-80 and west of the ridges.
1240 AM CDT Sun Jul 28 2024 (This evening through Sunday) Expect warmer and dry weather for the next 24 hours as upper level ridging begins to build across the area. Highs on Sunday will be in the lower 90s along the I-10 corridor, to the mid to upper 90s across the remainder of the area.
The weather pattern will begin to shift tomorrow as we start a warming trend as an upper level ridge begins to build in over the area.
(Today through Monday) A mid level closed low continues to rotate northward through the mid Mississippi River Valley this morning, while an amplified ridge axis extends from the north central Gulf coast to southeastern Canada. At the surface, ridging extends down the Appalachians, nudging into northeastern Alabama. The upper low will continue northward, open up, and merge with mean flow across the upper Midwest this morning. As the wave shifts eastward, the upper level ridge is suppressed southward and several impulses rotating through the trough will move across Central Alabama through Monday. Expect activity to continue overnight as the trough axis crosses the Tennessee Valley.
Low pressure center aloft is beginning to congeal into a subtropical low while ridge over the northeast Gulf is expanding. The low will continue lifting out tomorrow with high pressure nosing overhead. The upper level low that has been a contributing factor to all the rain recently is expected to lift to our north on Sunday, but the NBM is wanting to keep higher POPs in the forecast for one more day, so we have likely POPs for Sunday.
In its wake, lower level thermal ridge will build in from the west and yield much hotter temperatures than the previous several days. With the hotter temperatures and an increase in southerly wind, lows tonight and much of the upcoming week will be mostly in the warmer half of the 70s.
(Today through Monday night) Latest models runs continue to see the upper-level trough to our north slowly exit east as high pressure builds over the Panhandles.
Weak ridging at the surface and aloft remain in place over W FL this morning as a weak surface frontal boundary remains stationary near S AL/GA and the FL panhandle in tandem with troughing aloft over the E Seaboard.
Now we are watching scattered showers gradually diminish while most of the CWA is shrouded in clouds with temperatures struggling to reach the low 80s. So are we heading towards and rinse a repeat forecast for our Sunday? Not quite! The pattern will find itself in flux tomorrow as a mid/upper ridge over Florida and the eastern Gulf expands westward, gradually increasing mid/upper pressure heights over southeast Texas. However, we should begin to see the effects of the ridge starting on Sunday. Third, temperatures are forecast to be warmer, with highs averaging in the upper 80s.
135 AM EDT Sun Jul 28 2024 High pressure will remain in place tonight offering dry conditions. Low temperatures at the surface will be slightly warmer tonight, with most locations remaining above the 60 degree mark. Low level moisture increases with surface dewpoints into the lower 70s across the southwest Sunday afternoon. High temperatures to range from the lower/middle 80s over the southwest (where clouds and pcpn will be observed) to the lower 90s northeast. Lows Sunday night will be mild - ranging from the upper 60s to the lower 70s. On Monday morning, a mid-level trough axis will be in place from the upper Midwest through the Ohio Valley.
A cold front was positioned near the FL/GA line this morning. Drier high pressure will build across the forecast area today. In fact, the center of high pressure should reach the nearshore SC waters this afternoon, remaining through the night. High pressure will remain centered just offshore tonight. Meanwhile, High pressure in the northeastern Gulf of Mexico will get absorbed into a broad High centered over the Southern Plains. This will cause troughing to form over our region.
1203 AM CDT Sun Jul 28 2024 (This evening through Sunday night) Once again, the pattern that has been locked in over the last week continues for our region with a very active southwesterly flow aloft sitting up over us on the NW periphery oh an H5 ridge just to our southeast. Sunday will yield another convectively active day, but maybe not as active as days past as the upper level pattern change gradually begins to change with the H5 ridge across the northeast Gulf of Mexico beginning to spread east.
340 AM EDT Sun Jul 28 2024 - Pattern shift to warm and humid with chances of rain and storms - Potential for Thunderstorms this week - Pattern shift to warm and humid with chances of rain and storms Models remain in fair agreement, while fair weather will continue through the first half of the day, a negatively tilted upper level trough will be impetus to bring copious mid level moisture along with warm air advection that will begin a period of potential afternoon convection. Tomorrow will bring better CAPE values, with southerly warm air advection out ahead of a frontal boundary out ahead of the before mentioned trough.
340 AM EDT Sun Jul 28 2024 High pressure building from the north will bring a cooler and drier than normal air mass into early Monday before it shifts offshore for the rest of the week. These conditions are being brought by the NE flow that followed yesterday's cold frontal passage. The NE flow veers to southerly tonight as the center of high pressure is pushed a bit offshore.
Coastal areas will remain cooler with occasional to persistent low clouds and periods patchy, coastal drizzle. Otherwise, the low level inversion will be week to aid a short period of partial clearing by late afternoon. Temperatures will remain below normal with the troughing pattern promoting onshore flow.
619 AM EDT Sun Jul 28 2024 High pressure building from the north will bring a cooler and drier than normal air mass into early Monday before it shifts offshore for the rest of the week. These conditions are being brought by the NE flow that followed yesterday's cold frontal passage. The NE flow veers to southerly tonight as the center of high pressure is pushed a bit offshore.
610 AM CDT Sun Jul 28 2024 (Today through Monday afternoon) High pressure finally migrates east into West Texas today beginning a warming trend that will last into mid-week.
There will be a bit of a lull once these exit this morning before a warm front develops in the afternoon stretching southwest to northeast from central SD to northeast SD.
626 AM CDT Sun Jul 28 2024 (Today through Monday night) Latest models runs continue to see the upper-level trough to our north slowly exit east as high pressure builds over the Panhandles.
605 AM CDT Sun Jul 28 2024 (Today) Rainfall/showers will gradually spread into the mid TN Valley from the west later this morning, as an upper trough axis over the Midwest/lower MS Valley lifts into the OH Valley region. High pressure layered across the Gulf region will allow moisture to surge into the area, as PWATs climb to near/just over 2 inches. Given the cloud cover/rainfall, highs later today will struggle to surpass the lower/mid 80s.
Southern Oregon and northern California remain under the influence of a broad trough affecting most of the Pacific Northwest and Canada.
Below average temperatures continue through mid-week as upper level troughing persists. Temperatures are expected to warm above average again by late week as upper level ridging builds. (Today and tonight) Below average temperatures continue again today as upper level troughing persists over the Western US. Stratus is forecast to dissipate by mid to late morning but continued upper level troughing and a fairly deep marine layer will result in stratus returning by the evening/overnight.
721 AM EDT Sun Jul 28 2024 (Today through Monday) To wrap up the weekend into the new week, the trough will move across the US east coast assisting the frontal boundary further into the southeastern US.
623 AM CDT Sun Jul 28 2024 (Today through Monday) An upper level low near the Kansas/Missouri border will open and lift northeast through the day. What's left of the mid and upper level shear axis is forecast to pinch off into an inverted trough across the Rio Grande Plains and southern Edwards Plateau today and eventually a weak, compact low tonight and Monday. However, isolated showers may continue Sunday night into Monday morning near the weak mid and upper level low, in an areas of better low and mid level moisture and forcing near San Antonio and along the U. Warmer temperatures are forecast Monday, with highs in the low to mid 90s across the Hill Country, I-35 corridor, and Coastal Plains to upper 90s to around 100 along the Rio Grande.
A sprawling ridge across the Atlantic will continue to dominate our sensible weather. Light winds combined with the subsidence provided by this ridge will suppress rain chances today. Beyond the weekend, the Atlantic Ridge will build back westward, gradually leading to freshening breezes.
Aloft, a trough will translate NEwrd today with ridging building into the area from the Srn Plains. The aforementioned upper ridge will edge closer to AR on Monday. Temperatures will moderate into the lower to mid 90s.
Otherwise, a mostly sunny and hot day is expected, with afternoon high temperatures mainly in the low to mid 90s.
(Rest of Today) Satellite imagery shows an upper trough axis shifting eastward across the Tennessee Valley this morning.
705 AM EDT Sun Jul 28 2024 High pressure will remain over the area today and Monday before eventually pushing offshore.
947 AM EDT Sun Jul 28 2024 High pressure building from the north will bring a cooler and drier than normal air mass into early Monday before it shifts offshore for the rest of the week. These conditions are being brought by the NE flow that followed yesterday's cold frontal passage. The NE flow veers to southerly tonight as the center of high pressure is pushed a bit offshore.
611 AM CDT Sun Jul 28 2024 (Today and tonight) Upper level ridging currently centered over southern AZ and NM will begin moving into the area today. For tonight, another warm, muggy night with lows in the low to mid 70s for most areas.
Made some minor adjustments to the PoPs for today, highlighting portions of Orange, Brevard, and Osceola as having the highest coverage of showers and storms.
601 AM CDT Sun Jul 28 2024 (Today and tonight) After a few mornings of nuisance thunderstorms, no precipitation is expected this morning with the absence of any notable forcing as a ridge builds over the area. Upper heights slightly increased from yesterday will subsequently allow for highs to be a few degrees warmer.
725 AM EDT Sun Jul 28 2024 - Pattern shift to warm and wet with heavy rain possible - Potential for Thunderstorms this week - Pattern shift to warm and wet with heavy rain possible Models remain in fair agreement, while fair weather will continue through the first half of the day, a negatively tilted upper level trough will be impetus to bring copious mid level moisture along with warm air advection that will begin a period of potential afternoon convection. Tomorrow will bring better CAPE values, with southerly warm air advection out ahead of a frontal boundary out ahead of the before mentioned trough.
79 Previous Discussion: /Through Sunday Night/ Hotter weather and lower rain chances are expected the remainder of the weekend due to high pressure building in from the west. Lows Sunday night will be a few degrees warmer with middle and upper 70s. /Issued 236 AM CDT Sun Jul 28 2024/ /Monday Onward/ A streak of uncomfortably hot weather will begin at the start of the work week as a mid level ridge plants itself overhead.
Our hot, muggy airmass lingers over the area this morning, with a stalled cold front extending from central ND north into Manitoba. We should not be as hot as yesterday either today or Monday, with increased cloud cover and rainfall potential to help keep us a little cooler.
947 AM EDT Sun Jul 28 2024 Weak high pressure moves across the region through tonight, keeping conditions dry. 12Z RAOB from IAD has abundant dry air at the low, mid, and high levels with a PWAT o f 0. High pressure will shift offshore this afternoon with winds turning around from the south allowing temps to climb into the low 90s. Warmer tonight with lows staying above 70 with increasing humidity. Showers and thunderstorms appear likely Monday afternoon west of the Blue Ridge.
656 AM CDT Sun Jul 28 2024 (Today through Monday) A mid level closed low continues to rotate northward through the mid Mississippi River Valley this morning, while an amplified ridge axis extends from the north central Gulf coast to southeastern Canada. At the surface, ridging extends down the Appalachians, nudging into northeastern Alabama. The upper low will continue northward, open up, and merge with mean flow across the upper Midwest this morning. As the wave shifts eastward, the upper level ridge is suppressed southward and several impulses rotating through the trough will move across Central Alabama through Monday. Expect activity to continue overnight as the trough axis crosses the Tennessee Valley.
Wet and unsettled conditions will continue across the region today as a mid-level trough moves through the area. The weather pattern will begin to shift tomorrow as we start a warming trend as an upper level ridge begins to build in over the area.
Discussion: The upper ridge axis is sliding off to our east as an upper trough is moving in from our west. Heights will be falling this afternoon into Monday as this trough moves in, and multiple smaller short wave features will bring rounds of showers and thunderstorms, most notably this afternoon/evening and likely again late tonight into Monday.