Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
918 AM EST Wed Dec 25 2024 High pressure centered over the Saint Lawrence Valley will bring mainly fair and dry weather for the next several days, however low clouds will be stubborn to clear across Western New York.
Updated 12Z Aviation Discussion Cooler temperatures will settle into the region for the next few days before a slight warm up occurs over the weekend.
435 AM CST Wed Dec 25 2024 (Today) Mostly clear conditions look to prevail through the night as high pressure fight to hang on as long as possible. The clear and calm overnight conditions will allow temps to drop into the low to mid 30s by sunrise. SE flow along the western periphery of high pressure will continue through the day maintaining our warm yet dry airmass. This will result in a very benign Holiday with mostly clear skies allowing for temps to rise into the high 50s and perhaps low 60s.
613 AM CST Wed Dec 25 2024 (Today through Thursday) - Cold front pushes over the coastal plains for the rest of tonight. - Chances for showers and storms return on Thursday with the passage of another cold front. The cold front that moved last evening over South Central Texas is pushing across the coastal plains as of 300 AM CST. Overnight lows are forecast to range from the lower 50s to lower 60s. Another cold front is forecast to push across South Central Texas mid to late afternoon on Thursday.
223 AM PST Wed Dec 25 2024 * Dry weather prevails through much of today with cooler temperatures.
Near seasonal temps are being observed now in the low to mid 50's and will warm up to the upper 60's north to mid 70's central and southwest Florida. Broad high pressure over the eastern seaboard ridges southwest across Florida and into the Gulf of Mexico through the rest of the week and into the weekend, with east-northeast flow continuing.
No issues with freezing drizzle are expected since temperatures will remain nearly steady tonight in the mid to upper 30s. Temperatures will be warming well into the 40s through the day, however, as we continue to advect a much warmer airmass northward into the area.
Weak surface ridging is in place across the Atlantic Coast with E to SE low level flow into C AL around the base. With our continued weakening ridge and meager return flow, look for our airmass to continue to moderate with lows a tad milder tonight.
710 AM CST Wed Dec 25 2024 (Wednesday through Thursday Night) Southwest flow aloft ahead of an upper-trough across central Texas continues to tap into southern stream moisture allowing for widespread showers with embedded thunder across much of east Texas and north Louisiana this morning. However, rain across Louisiana and south Arkansas may persist through much of the day as the upper-trough lingers across the region. Rain chances will generally improve through tonight as a weak upper-level ridge swings east across the region. Contributing factors to the overall severe risk include dewpoint values in the lower 60s, falling heights aloft with the approaching surface and upper-low, and enough shear to support a eastward moving convective complex with embedded supercells. Severe threat forecast to gradually diminish after midnight as the developing cyclone shifts northeast into Missouri.
643 AM EST Wed Dec 25 2024 High pressure over the northeast United States will expand down the east side of the Appalachians today and tonight with abundant cloud cover and temperatures slightly above normal. By the end of the week the high will move offshore and low pressure approaching from the center of the country will bring the next chance of widespread precipitation.
623 AM EST Wed Dec 25 2024 Cool and dry high pressure will settle to our northeast today, yielding dry conditions and temps remaining a bit below normal, though not nearly as cold as recent days.
957 AM EST Wed Dec 25 2024 Upper and surface ridging remains across the southeast United States into the southern Appalachians. This ridging will keep dry and unseasonably mild weather for Christmas Day. (Today and tonight) Key Messages: Quiet weather day today Discussion: Currently temperatures are hovering right around the freezing mark early this morning with mostly clear skies. With the increased clouds and daytime heating overnight lows will also be several degrees warmer and most of the Valley will stay above freezing overnight.
- Areas of fog, freezing fog and low clouds will reduce visibility Christmas morning, and again Thursday morning.
537 AM CST Wed Dec 25 2024 - Fog and freezing fog is possible this morning.
1233 PM EST Wed Dec 25 2024 Upper and surface ridging remains across the southeast United States into the southern Appalachians. This ridging will keep dry and unseasonably mild weather for Christmas Day. (Today and tonight) Key Messages: Quiet weather day today Discussion: Currently temperatures are hovering right around the freezing mark early this morning with mostly clear skies. With the increased clouds and daytime heating overnight lows will also be several degrees warmer and most of the Valley will stay above freezing overnight.
Updated 18Z Aviation Discussion Cooler temperatures will settle into the region for the next few days before a slight warm up occurs over the weekend.
1252 PM EST Wed Dec 25 2024 High pressure over the northeast United States will expand down the east side of the Appalachians today and tonight with abundant cloud cover and temperatures slightly above normal. By the end of the week the high will move offshore and low pressure approaching from the center of the country will bring the next chance of widespread precipitation. Dry high pressure over New England will continue to wedge south tonight and into Thursday. Temperatures today already on the lower side of guidance, so opted to bump down afternoon highs today and tomorrow by a degree or two below what most models are offering. May have have some ridgetops in the clouds, resulting in lower visibilities.
1009 AM EST Wed Dec 25 2024 Cool and dry high pressure will settle to our northeast today, yielding dry conditions and temps remaining a bit below normal, though not nearly as cold as recent days.
- Drier, sunnier, and warmer this weekend. Coverage and intensity of light rain and drizzle are expected to increase late this afternoon and into this evening as the next mid-level low centers itself over the High Plains.
Cooler temperatures and slight chances for rain and snow showers are expected today through late Thursday.
(Rest of today through Thursday) Weak high pressure remains draped along the Eastern Seaboard, promoting light easterly flow across South Florida through the short term period. Aloft, a weakening mid-level ridge will help keep a relatively dry air mass over South Florida, as evidenced by the 12Z sounding and more recent ACARS data from KMIA.
Any precipitation that does fall will be light, with even the 90th percentile of QPF remaining below a third of an inch in the high terrain.
This low, and the accompanying cold front will begin effecting our western zone by the late morning, as general showers and thunderstorms begin to increase in coverage. Given the location of the low pressure, shear values across the region will be quite impressive, and more than supportive for all modes of severe weather.
The low pressure wave responsible for ongoing light rain will continue to lift and open up as it makes its way across the area.
1104 AM CST Wed Dec 25 2024 - Areas of fog, freezing fog and low clouds will reduce visibility Christmas morning, and again Thursday morning.
1250 PM EST Wed Dec 25 2024 Cool and dry high pressure will settle to our northeast today, yielding dry conditions and temps remaining a bit below normal, though not nearly as cold as recent days.
Widespread rain associated with this across the lower Ohio Valley attm has been having a tough time pushing east into our area. However, as the low levels continue to moisten up and the weakening short wave approaches, expect pcpn to become more widespread across our area through the rest of this afternoon and into early evening, with the highest pops across our western areas. In low level WAA, temperatures will moderate with afternoon highs in the upper 40s north to the lower 50s south.
108 PM EST Wed Dec 25 2024 High pressure centered over the Saint Lawrence Valley will bring fair and dry weather for the next several days, however low clouds will be stubborn to clear across Western New York. A pair of low pressure system will pass near the region during the weekend, resulting in periods of rain and warmer weather. Strong Canadian high pressure centered over the Saint Lawrence Valley will extend back across the Lower Great Lakes through Thursday night. This is marginally into the DGZ, with light precipitation on this boundary falling as flurries or freezing drizzle.
340 PM EST Wed Dec 25 2024 Low pressure south of Nova Scotia will pull away from the area tonight.
Temperatures this morning along the island chain are in the lower to mid 70s with light breezes out of the northeast. From synopsis, high pressure will continue to build over the northeastern United States, allowing for freshened breezes to continue through Thursday night.
The day cloud type RGB composite shows that most of the cloud cover responsible for blocking out the sunshine is confined to the lower levels even though there is a broad swath of high level cirrus across the region. As ridging builds along the eastern U.
Temperatures are just above the freezing mark across our far inland communities (34Â° in Evergreen and Greenville as of 10z) while hovering in the low 50s at the beaches.
High pressure over the East Coast will continue to drive increasing wedge development.
/44/ (Wednesday through Thursday Night) Southwest flow aloft ahead of an upper-trough across central Texas continues to tap into southern stream moisture allowing for widespread showers with embedded thunder across much of east Texas and north Louisiana this morning. However, rain across Louisiana and south Arkansas may persist through much of the day as the upper-trough lingers across the region. Rain chances will generally improve through tonight as a weak upper-level ridge swings east across the region. Contributing factors to the overall severe risk include dewpoint values in the lower 60s, falling heights aloft with the approaching surface and upper-low, and enough shear to support a eastward moving convective complex with embedded supercells. Severe threat forecast to gradually diminish after midnight as the developing cyclone shifts northeast into Missouri.
159 PM EST Wed Dec 25 2024 Cool and dry high pressure will settle to our northeast today, yielding dry conditions and temps remaining a bit below normal, though not nearly as cold as recent days.
1233 PM EST Wed Dec 25 2024 Low pressure south of Nova Scotia will pull away from the area tonight.
236 PM EST Wed Dec 25 2024 High pressure will dominate our weather through Thursday with seasonably cold temperatures and no precipitation.
For example, Pocatello should be in the mid- teens for lows and just at freezing for highs, but overnight lows will be very mild, near 30 deg F, and highs around 40. Stanley at 6200ft elevation will barely get to around freezing and will stay in the teens compared to the normal single digit overnight lows.
Patchy fog, mist, drizzle and/or freezing drizzle are likely north of I-69 later tonight.
Ahead, a broad ridge will build over the region by the weekend. Ensemble models are in good agreement of the ridge building with the impacts of warming temperatures.
Potential for dense fog does exist across the region, with the highest probabilities for such located in the higher terrain areas of both southeast Oklahoma and in northwest Arkansas.
There will be two distinct heavier snowfall periods with this system: the first will be around daybreak with the warm front, then there may be a brief 1 to 2 hour lull in places until the occluded front passes through later in the morning into the early afternoon. This time of year is notorious for black ice potential on Whitebird Grade even with air temperatures above freezing.
251 PM EST Wed Dec 25 2024 - Patchy fog and freezing fog will be possible again overnight. - 30% chance of light freezing rain Thursday night in the interior central UP could result in slippery conditions on untreated surfaces.
Moisture advection downstream of this low had already been established across southwest Kansas. This pattern will continue through the overnight hours as the upper level low continues to move closer to the greater region. Some minor good news is that dewpoints and temperatures should be above freezing, so even if there is fog, overall travel impacts should be insignificant with the above freezing temperatures forecast. From a probabilistic messaging perspective, the HREF does have the highest probabilities of visibilities less than 1/2 mile from Scott City to Dodge to Hays. Looking forward, all this low level moisture will be slow to clear Thursday.
A cold front extends southwest from this low to another weak low west of Bermuda. A little closer to Florida, upper ridging near Bermuda extends northwest through the Carolinas and into the Ohio River Valley. The surface reflection of this ridge is a 1028 mb high pressure center over the mid-Atlantic states. This high pressure will slowly move northeastward toward New England and will be the dominant weather feature through the end of the week.
Extensive cloud coverage through the day will result in a relatively small diurnal temperature curve across the area with low temperatures tomorrow morning expected to be in the mid 30s to low 40s (high temperatures for today are in the low to mid 40s). Temperatures across the region are anticipated to stay above freezing keeping chances for freezing drizzle away tomorrow morning. High temperatures for tomorrow are anticipated to mainly stay in the low to high 50s across the area which is warmer than seasonal normals.
905 AM PST Wed Dec 25 2024 In the wake of an upper trough in the Great Basin, an upper ridge will build over southern California today.
556 PM CST Wed Dec 25 2024 (Tonight through Thursday night) - Chances for showers and storms return Thursday with another cold front. A mid-level ridge is building over Texas and the flow is from the northwest, and there is a deep trough over AZ/NM. The mid- level trough will move across NM and become negatively tilted tonight and then move across north TX Thursday. Ahead of the front tonight the low level flow will turn back to the southeast returning moister air. Drier air will move in and allow temperatures to drop around five degrees cooler than tonight.
Have a Merry Christmas! (Rest of today through Thursday) Weak high pressure remains draped along the Eastern Seaboard, promoting light easterly flow across South Florida through the short term period. Aloft, a weakening mid-level ridge will help keep a relatively dry air mass over South Florida, as evidenced by the 12Z sounding and more recent ACARS data from KMIA.
808 PM EST Wed Dec 25 2024 High pressure over the northeast United States will expand down the east side of the Appalachians today and tonight with abundant cloud cover and temperatures slightly above normal. By the end of the week the high will move offshore and low pressure approaching from the center of the country will bring the next chance of widespread precipitation.
652 PM CST Wed Dec 25 2024 Through Tomorrow: Continued moisture advection brought about from on shore flow and upstream troughs breaking into the area will support generally warmer, wetter conditions for the short term.
625 PM EST Wed Dec 25 2024 High pressure Thursday.
550 PM CST Wed Dec 25 2024 - Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays from NWS La Crosse! - Freezing drizzle is possible tonight into Thursday morning with northeast Iowa into central Wisconsin the most likely areas (40-60%) to see a glaze of ice.
Light southeast winds and thick clouds will keep temperatures steady from near 40 to the lower 40s. In low level WAA, temperatures will moderate with afternoon highs in the upper 40s north to the lower 50s south.
847 PM EST Wed Dec 25 2024 High pressure wedge has started to build down into NE GA this evening. High pressure over the East Coast will continue to drive increasing wedge development.
333 PM CST Wed Dec 25 2024 Through Tomorrow: Continued moisture advection brought about from on shore flow and upstream troughs breaking into the area will support generally warmer, wetter conditions for the short term.
830 PM EST Wed Dec 25 2024 Recent hi-res guidance continues to show signals of a low stratus deck and patchy fog once again developing across parts of the area tonight but overall coverage should be less than last night and mainly focused across the Nature Coast as the low level northeasterly flow remains in place. A cold front extends southwest from this low to another weak low west of Bermuda. A little closer to Florida, upper ridging near Bermuda extends northwest through the Carolinas and into the Ohio River Valley. The surface reflection of this ridge is a 1028 mb high pressure center over the mid-Atlantic states. This high pressure will slowly move northeastward toward New England and will be the dominant weather feature through the end of the week.
A broad ridge will build over the region by the weekend.
330 AM EST Thu Dec 26 2024 A ridge will extend south along the East Coast from a high pressure center over Quebec.
1206 AM EST Thu Dec 26 2024 Low pressure south of Nova Scotia will pull away from the area tonight.
An upper-level composite analysis this Christmas evening reveals a deep layer mean anticyclone over the southern Caribbean basin with a ridge extending NNW over the Florida Peninsula and the eastern United States. The Florida Keys are located within an easterly flow regime between an arctic anticyclone centered over Quebec and a tropical trade-wind regime over the Caribbean Sea. Current air temperatures in most Keys island communities are in the lower to mid 70s with dewpoint temperatures in the upper 60s. Winds are likely ENE or NE and a few knots lower over the cooler Gulf and Bay waters north of the Florida Keys.
/15/ Through Tomorrow: Continued moisture advection brought about from on shore flow and upstream troughs breaking into the area will support generally warmer, wetter conditions for the short term.
Digging trough on the nose of this jet into the western Conus. with downstream ridge amplification centered right across the Great Lakes region. Again, another night of plentiful low level moisture trapped beneath stout H8 centered ridge driven subsidence inversion, resulting in widespread low clouds across the Northwoods.
155 AM EST Thu Dec 26 2024 High pressure Thursday.
Once the sun rises we'll experience another warm day with temperatures similar to what we got to yesterday, and maybe even a degree or two warmer. Overnight temperatures are expected to be even warmer than this morning as increased clouds ahead of the next system helps limit radiational cooling overnight.
1101 PM CST Wed Dec 25 2024 - Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays from NWS La Crosse! - Freezing drizzle is possible tonight into Thursday morning with northeast Iowa into central Wisconsin the most likely areas (40-60%) to see a glaze of ice.
1250 AM EST Thu Dec 26 2024 High pressure over the northeast United States will expand down the east side of the Appalachians today and tonight with abundant cloud cover and temperatures slightly above normal. By the end of the week the high will move offshore and low pressure approaching from the center of the country will bring the next chance of widespread precipitation.
The weak warm front draped across the forecast area is a favored corridor for the more widespread dense fog and this boundary may attempt to lift slightly northward overnight.
Then, a strong area of high pressure builds up across the West Coast to kick off the New Year!. a strong area of high pressure is projected to build across the West Coast.
1234 AM EST Thu Dec 26 2024 High pressure Thursday.
WV imagery indicates a weak closed upper low drifting eastward through northeast New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle. Near the surface, a weak area of low pressure is situated in extreme southeast Colorado. Very minimal precip chances (20%) are forecast to linger across portions of southwest/central Kansas through early afternoon as a weak closed upper low pushes east through extreme northwest Texas into the Red River Valley.
316 AM EST Thu Dec 26 2024 High pressure over the eastern United States will move offshore tonight.
(Today) Mid/high cloud cover continues to spread into the mid TN Valley from the SW, as an upper trough axis rotates eastward thru the mid/southern Plains.
- Another cooler day in the 50s today with lingering clouds and patchy fog clearing from west to east through the day.
Have reduced high temps today closer to the lower end of ensemble spread, which results in highs in the low to mid 50s.
212 AM EST Thu Dec 26 2024 High pressure brings mostly dry conditions today.
Temperatures and road temperatures are above freezing so not expecting any icing. The moisture advection will continue to move into Iowa today with dew points gradually rising and this moisture will be driving the high temperatures today.
Temperatures will initially be on the cooler side through Friday, but overall still a few degrees above normal.
Moist advection into the low level cold air mass has kept the visibility low for longer here.
941 AM EST Thu Dec 26 2024 High pressure brings mostly dry conditions today.
622 AM EST Thu Dec 26 2024 (Today through Friday) Latest analysis shows a lingering surface boundary along the far southern tip of the peninsula, with high pressure remaining in control over the NE US. At the mid levels, there is very weak ridging across the state of FL, while the upper level southern jet is draped across Southern FL.
A quick surface analysis places a weak inverted trough from roughly western Tennessee northeast into Kentucky. Meanwhile, the upper trough will continue to move across the plains today with upper level winds increasing more toward the southwest in the afternoon and evening hours. Tonight we see the upper level trough take on a negative tilt as additional energy quickly moves off the Rockies behind it. While dewpoints increase into the low to mid 50's, instability still doens't look too great. This weekend, another upper level trough digs into the middle of the country takings a trajectory through the Quad State and eventually into the Ohio Valley.
Water vapor imagery early this morning shows upper ridging centered over the Great Lakes Region with troughing over the western US. Surface ridging extends west through the middle Mississippi Valley with a stationary/warm front draped over central Illinois from roughly north of Macomb to Hoopeston. The lowest visibilities reside west of the Illinois River where observations show 1 to 3 miles as of 3 am, though sub 1 mile observations are within reach of the county warning area.
While a shallow layer of cooler air is still present at the surface, moisture continues to stream overhead in the mid to upper levels. This setup makes the forecast for today a bit trickier than usual since some of the guidance isn't picking up on the ongoing rain showers very well, and the subsequent impacts on cloud cover and/or moistening of the low levels as the rain falls through them would have on temperatures. For now, the forecast has a fairly noticeable gradient in high temperatures from north to south essentially designating where the shallow cooler air at the surface may hang on vs areas where it may get mixed out.
416 AM EST Thu Dec 26 2024 High pressure will persist through Friday.
556 AM CST Thu Dec 26 2024 - Another cooler day in the 50s today with lingering clouds and patchy fog clearing from west to east through the day.
A midlevel trough was crossing the NM/TX border. Fortunately, temperatures are running 10-15 degrees warmer than Christmas morning (currently in the 40s) and freezing fog or slick spots are not a concern. Patchy drizzle is likely to continue within this low cloud base throughout the afternoon. Trended high temperatures cooler with the likelihood of overcast skies persisting much of the day.