Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
435 AM EDT Sun Aug 11 2024 High pressure dominates at the surface this week while several upper troughs pass through the region from time to time. In the mid and upper levels, a trough will cross north of our region. Thanks to the dry air advection and clearing skies, temperatures overnight will be considerably cooler than what we've seen for a long time. In fact the current forecast low at Philadelphia, 64 F, would be the lowest temperature since July 1.
* Very pleasant weekend with cooler temperatures and lower humidity. High pressure will continue to move into the region from the west over the next two days, which brings mostly clear skies along with calm to light winds. Temperatures in our area will remain cooler than normal, with highs in the low 80s.
(Today through Monday) High pressure continues to dominate the southern tier of the US down into the Gulf and over the northern tier a weak trough over the upper midwest to the east coast and a weak ridge over the west and plains. The ridge will maintain drier air with PWs in the 1. However, the subsidence under the high pressure will suppress most chances for rain, with the exception being sea breeze generated lift driving some low convection.
154 AM EDT Sun Aug 11 2024 High pressure will persist across the region into the middle of the week offering dry conditions. Overnight lows will be mostly in the low to mid 50s. High pressure center over the mid Mississippi Valley at the beginning of the period will expand eastward during the short term. With little change in airmass, expect highs and lows to be near or perhaps just a bit warmer than persistence.
Warmer and more humid conditions will develop beginning Monday and continuing through much of the week.
Higher amplitude mid level troughing entrenched locally early this morning, as meaningful height falls emanate from a closed mid level circulation over eastern Ontario/western Quebec. This underlying profile to receive an additional boost to the upward vertical motion field with time via a combination of a mid level trough passage and improving diurnal lapse rates environment beneath the inherent cold pool. The cooler resident thermal profile again translates into highs in the 70s.
At the upper-levels, a 595dam ridge is building in across western and central Texas and this feature is expected to remain in place through at least tonight. Surface flow should also increase above 10 MPH by this afternoon due to weak troughing that will develop over the Panhandle this morning.
212 AM EDT Sun Aug 11 2024 Upper level low pressure will bring rain showers and isolated thunderstorms, mainly over central NY, Sunday and Monday.
Warm conditions will continue today across the interior with cooler conditions along the coast. Upper level troughing over the region will persist over the region the next several days, promoting onshore flow and cooler temperatures.
Most locations will remain hot and rain-free through the day, although increasing cloud cover as a result of a disturbance and associated northwest flow aloft should help to keep temperatures a few degrees cooler across portions of North Texas. Otherwise, the summer heat will be in full swing as the center of an upper ridge moves back over the region.
Temperatures will trend cooler today and lower to near normal by Monday. Based on the incoming trough, confidence is growing for a stretch of near-normal temperatures for much of this week. This aforementioned system is expected to push further inland today and break down the large upper ridge centered over the four corners region that has been responsible for the widespread triple digit heat across the San Joaquin Valley and foothill areas over the previous 8 days. This in turn will allow for a noticable cooling trend across our area today and Monday with daytime highs expected to lower by 2-3 DEG F across most of our area today and by other 4-6 DEG on Monday as an upper trough pushes into CA.
305 AM EDT Sun Aug 11 2024 Upper level low pressure will bring rain showers and isolated thunderstorms, mainly over central NY, Sunday and Monday.
(Today through Monday) The subtropical ridge remains nearly overhead in the short term. These moisture levels combined with subsidence underneath the ridge lead to a return of a rain free forecast. However, with the approach of an inverted trough, some CAMs indicate a few showers near the Coastal Plains on Monday.
112 AM EDT Sun Aug 11 2024 High pressure dominates at the surface this week while several upper troughs pass through the region from time to time. In the mid and upper levels, a trough will cross north of our region.
500 mb high pressure, centered over southern New Mexico and northern Texas, will generally remain the dominant feature for the BRO CWFA. However, weak inverted mid-level troughiness will become established and briefly linger along the northeast coast of Mexico.
Another pleasant day across the area with northwest flow keeping the area cool in the low to mid 70s and low humidity. While not strong, this southerly flow will help nudge temperatures up a couple degrees on Sunday, but still pleasant and cooler than average for this time of year in the upper 70s to around 80 degrees. Solutions diverge into the upcoming week, but the main theme is temperatures returning closer to average in the low to mid 80s as the thermal ridge rebuilds out to the west.
Mid-level high pressure remains overhead with 500mb heights around 594 dam.
Most locations will remain hot and rain-free through the day, although increasing cloud cover as a result of a disturbance and associated northwest flow aloft should help to keep temperatures a few degrees cooler across portions of North Texas.
1144 PM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024 (Rest of tonight) A WNW flow aloft of 20-30 knots will persist across the TN Valley overnight, and work in conjunction with light NNE flow in the low-levels to maintain a dry airmass highlighted by PWAT values in the 1. Thus, we expect lows to generally be in the l-m 60s (a few degrees warmer near large bodies of water and a few degrees cooler in our southern TN counties, where a few readings in the upper 50s will be possible Sunday morning).
119 AM MDT Sun Aug 11 2024 Satellite imagery shows trof axis moving thru central MT and clearing west of Butte & Dillon. As forcing shifts east, models continue to show 700mb winds turning easterly ahead of the trof, setting up a period of frontogenesis in a region of high precipitable waters (near 1"). Building ridge will bring dry conditions tonight through Monday morning. Temperatures today will remain quite a bit cooler than normal, with highs ranging from the upper 60s in our far east to lower 80s along western foothills.
Meanwhile, subtropical ridge axis lies near or just north of the island chain, maintaining easterly winds. The western extent of the subtropical ridge axis will continue to extend north of Keys coastal waters.
(Today through Monday afternoon) The short term forecast remains quite jejune, as the upper ridge persists. WV imagery this morning shows the upper ridge still covering the southwest and central CONUS, extending from the eastern Pacific to the ArklaTex and into the Gulf of Mexico. The old inverted trough remains over Baja, bifurcating the ridge, but this will continue to have negligible effect on weather here. The ridge will remain in place today, w/models increasing thicknesses slightly and increasing highs on average 2-3 degrees over yesterday's. Monday, the ridge is forecast to shift east to near the ArklaTex.
1217 AM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024 (This evening through Sunday) The upper high currently overhead will remain in place through tonight and tomorrow. This will, overall, continue the trend of dry and warmer. Temps will warm back into the upper 90s to near 100 across the FA tomorrow thanks to the persistent upper high.
With the low dewpoints in place, tonight's low temperatures will be a bit below normal.
320 AM EDT Sun Aug 11 2024 - Fair weather today through Monday - Dry through midweek; better support for late-week rain - Fair weather today through Monday Any isolated early morning light rain showers and sprinkles will end by mid morning as the upper level trough/vort max departs. It will be partly sunny today with pleasant high temps reaching the low to mid 70s as per latest ensemble guidance numbers. A digging upper trough approaching from the nrn Plains helps to draw up Gulf moisture (PWATs >1.
352 AM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024 - Warmer weather is expected today, especially across far southwest Kansas where highs could reach the 80s to lower 90s. Cooler 70s and 80s are forecast from Dodge City north and east.
High pressure will provide dry weather and below-normal temperatures. High temperatures on Sunday will range from the lower 70s to lower 80s. A low pressure system will move southeast from the Northern Plains into the Mid Mississippi River Valley. The highest totals will be in northeast Iowa. Low temperatures on Sunday night will be in the lower and mid-50s. The upper level ridge over the southern US will build north and west of the forecast area. There will be periodic showers and storms as systems move along the periphery of the ridge of high pressure. Sunday, a mid- level trough over the Northern Rockies will drop southeast toward into the Plains with increasing high clouds during the afternoon.
1216 AM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024 - On and off rain and thunderstorm chances persist mainly during the overnight into morning hours for much of this week, with the highest chances (50-90%) being late Sunday night into Monday morning.
- There is a 30-80% chance of showers and thunderstorms from early Sunday through early Monday, with the highest chances of precipitation over central South Dakota Sunday afternoon. The going forecast looks to be in good shape, as high pressure continues to influence the weather over much of the area. There is low pressure organizing out over the Pacific Northwest, which will push across the northern plains tomorrow. Initially, PoPs show up across all of the west-river zones late tonight through Sunday morning where all the forcing/lift will line up with a lee- side/inverted surface trof over the western Dakotas. Worth a mention, since there is already quite a bit of stratus covering a lot of Kansas and Nebraska where the higher amounts of low level moisture are analyzed.
Cooler weather is expected today as a new air mass pushes in from the west. However, a short wave trough approaching from the west will offshore a few showers in the mountains this afternoon as forcing for ascent increases and heating allows for weak instability. One short wave trough moves through tonight with a few showers possible, mostly in the mountains. A mid and upper level trough will move across New England on Monday with showers likely in the mountains with lesser chances the farther south one goes.
1155 PM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024 (Tonight through Sunday night) Key Messages: - Heat Advisory in effect for the Coastal Bend - Moderate to major risk of heat-related impacts this weekend Not much change to the forecast as a hot and humid weather pattern continues across South Texas due to the influence of a persistent subtropical ridge. Temperatures today and tomorrow will range in the mid-90s along the coast to the low 100s inland. Tomorrow is less likely to need a Heat Advisory as slightly cooler dew points and surface temperatures are expected as the mid-level ridge flattens out.
347 AM EDT Sun Aug 11 2024 Brief high pressure returns today. A series of trofs cross the region through the first half of the week. A narrow ridge of high pressure is building into the area for the day today, which is keeping skies mostly clear and winds light. As the ridge axis begins to slide eastward this afternoon, return flow will shift to the southwest around the back side of the high, and begin to lift warm moist air into the region, though at a gradual pace. For tonight, an upper level trough will begin to push into the area from the west. The upper level trof will continue to cross across the region on Monday. Temps should be in the low 70s. By Monday night, the center of the upper level trof should move off over the maritimes.
Some spots over far northeast Alabama and into southern middle Tennessee may see cooler high temperatures, in the lower 80s.
KEY MESSAGES: - Max/Min temperature remain a couple degrees below normal - Chance of showers north of I-80 this afternoon and again tonight ------------------------------------------------------------------- There is high confidence in the weather pattern today and tonight, with a strong upper-level low in vicinity of Toronto, and a jet streak advancing newd to aid in the advance of a weak cold front into the upper Ohio Valley. Owing to the spatial uncertainty in model placement of showers, NBM inherently underplays the PoPs in such situations, so have made some manual adjustment to PoPs this afternoon and again this evening as the upper low's trough axis advances across Lake Erie and potentially reinvigorates showers overnight in the I-80 corridor.
Our weather pattern is expected to turn more active again starting tonight a short wave reaches the MO Valley, and then again for the middle to latter portions of the week as a somewhat higher amplitude trough crosses the central and northern Plains.
1009 PM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024 (This afternoon through Sunday night) Mid and upper level ridging is still in full control of our overall weather.
1234 AM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024 (Tonight through Sunday night) An upper-level ridge will remain centered over the Western US through the period.
242 AM EDT Sun Aug 11 2024 Continue to have upper ridge axis from W Atlantic into the W Gulf with a weakness in ridge over FL today and Monday. At the surface, the high pressure ridge axis remains over S FL for generally light SW steering wind flow pattern producing isolated to scattered showers in the E Gulf that will continue to move ashore through the morning hours before increasing in coverage and thunderstorm chances as the activity moves inland later in the afternoon.
902 PM PDT Sat Aug 10 2024 Strong high pressure aloft and monsoonal moisture will bring hot weather inland today, with a chance of thunderstorms over the mountains and portions of the deserts. Slightly cooler Sunday with continued chances of thunderstorms over the mountains and deserts. Coastal low clouds and fog will remain rather patchy tonight, however a coastal eddy appears to develop Sunday, which may encourage the marine layer to recover from the damage caused by the current high pressure and monsoon flow. The high pressure aloft weakens under the influence of a deeper trough to our northwest Sunday and Monday.
342 AM EDT Sun Aug 11 2024 High pressure dominates at the surface this week while several upper troughs pass through the region from time to time. In the mid and upper levels, a trough will cross north of our region. Thanks to the dry air advection and clearing skies, temperatures overnight will be considerably cooler than what we've seen for a long time. In fact the current forecast low at Philadelphia, 58 F, would be the lowest temperature since June 1.
The winds today will be on the gusty side with high pressure building into the region. Today will see the full effects of the building high pressure with temperatures going into the low 100s. Then by the evening the convection that forms over the high terrain of NM and CO will be pushed east by the zonal flow passing across the panhandles. Monday will see a weak boundary push into the northern panhandles which will weaken the high pressure a bit. This will lead to slightly cooler temperatures for the northern panhandles while the central to southern panhandles remain hot.
423 AM EDT Sun Aug 11 2024 Upper level low pressure will lead to rain showers and isolated thunderstorms, mainly over central NY, today and Monday, especially during the afternoon hours.
1227 AM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024 (This evening through Sunday) We can now wave goodbye to those slightly cooler temperatures we had today as the upper-level ridge begins to build back across West Central Texas, bringing more hot and dry conditions back to the area.
Weak high pressure will build in from the north during the middle of the week.
The upper level low will begin to pull off amplifying the small area of high pressure over us. Monday, an upper level low will travel eastward across the Canadian Providences and flattening our temporary ridge.
1248 AM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024 (This evening through Monday) NW flow aloft will bring cooler temperatures through the weekend.
Upper ridging builds over the western and central CONUS early this week, allowing temps to warm back into the 80s and 90s. The ridge breaks down midweek as a potent wave pushes through the central states, with widespread showers/storms expected. Deterministic models are in fairly good agreement about a rebuilding ridge for the end of the week, with near daily chances for storms.
An upper level trough will bring unsettled weather through Monday with lake effect rain showers downwind of the lakes, and general scattered showers and a few thunderstorms during Sunday.
335 AM EDT Sun Aug 11 2024 High pressure will gradually build from the Midwest to the Mid- Atlantic through Monday. This area of high pressure will gradually shift toward New England during the middle of the week while a few weak upper level disturbances pass. A low pressure system may reach the area by the end of the week. With some modest cold advection, highs will be a little cooler today in the lower to mid 80s.
Synopsis: Slightly warmer temperatures return today with a warming trending into the start of the upcoming week as the mid-level low currently centered over the easter UP shifts to the east. However, with warmer temperatures arriving at the mid-levels this afternoon lake- effect processes won't be as efficient so most places may just see a cumulus field develop. Dry and mostly clear conditions should prevail tonight into Monday morning as a mid-level ridge moves over the region.
1253 AM EDT Sun Aug 11 2024 Upper level low pressure will bring rain showers and isolated thunderstorms, mainly over central NY, Sunday and Monday.
413 AM EDT Sun Aug 11 2024 An upper level trough will bring cool but unsettled weather through Monday with lake effect rain showers downwind of the lakes, and general showers and a few thunderstorms today.
The atmosphere is thus primed for showers and a stray thunderstorm over Florida Keys waters, but the western extent of the Atlantic ridge continues to linger over South Florida. From synopsis, a ridge axis will continue to extend north of Keys coastal waters.
All quiet as clouds begin to advance into the region ahead of a trough. Cooler weather is expected today as a new air mass pushes in from the west. However, a short wave trough approaching from the west will offshore a few showers in the mountains this afternoon as forcing for ascent increases and heating allows for weak instability. One short wave trough moves through tonight with a few showers possible, mostly in the mountains. A mid and upper level trough will move across New England on Monday with showers likely in the mountains with lesser chances the farther south one goes.
Upper level troughing over the region will persist over the next several days, promoting onshore flow and cooler temperatures.
438 AM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024 (Today through Monday afternoon) The short term forecast remains quite jejune, as the upper ridge persists. WV imagery this morning shows the upper ridge still covering the southwest and central CONUS, extending from the eastern Pacific to the ArklaTex and into the Gulf of Mexico. The old inverted trough remains over Baja, bifurcating the ridge, but this will continue to have negligible effect on weather here. The ridge will remain in place today, w/models increasing thicknesses slightly and increasing highs on average 2-3 degrees over yesterday's. Monday, the ridge is forecast to shift east to near the ArklaTex.
Temps in the low 60s should climb into the mid to upper 70s by afternoon. The upper level low will begin to pull off amplifying the small area of high pressure over us. Monday, an upper level low will travel eastward across the Canadian Providences and flattening our temporary ridge.
656 AM EDT Sun Aug 11 2024 Upper level low pressure will lead to rain showers and isolated thunderstorms, mainly over central NY, today and Monday, especially during the afternoon hours.
814 AM EDT Sun Aug 11 2024 Continue to have upper ridge axis from W Atlantic into the W Gulf with a weakness in ridge over FL today and Monday. At the surface, the high pressure ridge axis remains over S FL for generally light SW steering wind flow pattern producing isolated to scattered showers in the E Gulf that will continue to move ashore through the morning hours before increasing in coverage and thunderstorm chances as the activity moves inland later in the afternoon.
Scattered storms should initiate over the higher terrain by around noon, gradually moving northward and increasing in coverage through the afternoon. More widespread activity looks to develop as a hi-res guidance indicate the potential for an MCS moving northward from the Lower Deserts later this evening and into the overnight hours.
Sheppard Issued 306 AM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024 Today through Monday: As the 500 mb low slides further northeastward, upper-level ridge begins to back fill in its place across the central CONUS with high pressure building over the Midwest.
Winds remain elevated into the evening hours, translating to gusty winds to 30-35 mph for most valleys, and 50-60 mph along Sierra ridges.
Meanwhile, plentiful moisture remains in place in the lower atmosphere with weak upslope flow supporting another round of low clouds and fog over the High Plains.
600 AM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024 (Today through Monday) The subtropical ridge remains nearly overhead in the short term. These moisture levels combined with subsidence underneath the ridge lead to a return of a rain free forecast. However, with the approach of an inverted trough, some CAMs indicate a few showers near the Coastal Plains on Monday.
As a result, the temperature forecast has trended cooler, and some locations could struggle to reach 70 degrees again today. By Monday afternoon, we should finally see some unimpeded sunshine as upper level ridging moves into the area. Monday night, chances for thunderstorms return as a subtle perturbation rounds the ridge.
941 AM EDT Sun Aug 11 2024 Upper level low pressure will lead to rain showers and isolated thunderstorms, mainly over central NY, today and Monday, especially during the afternoon hours.
519 AM EDT Sun Aug 11 2024 High pressure will persist across the region into the middle of the week offering dry conditions. Mid level trof to pivot from the Great Lakes into southeast Canada today. Cool overnight lows to bottom out in the lower and middle 50s. High temperatures to range from the upper 70s to the lower 80s.
712 AM EDT Sun Aug 11 2024 Brief high pressure returns today. A series of trofs cross the region through the first half of the week. Previous Discussion: A narrow ridge of high pressure is building into the area for the day today, which is keeping skies mostly clear and winds light. As the ridge axis begins to slide eastward this afternoon, return flow will shift to the southwest around the back side of the high, and begin to lift warm moist air into the region, though at a gradual pace. For tonight, an upper level trough will begin to push into the area from the west. The upper level trof will continue to cross across the region on Monday. Temps should be in the low 70s. By Monday night, the center of the upper level trof should move off over the maritimes.
654 AM EDT Sun Aug 11 2024 An upper level trough will bring cool but unsettled weather through Monday with lake effect rain showers downwind of the lakes, and general showers and a few thunderstorms today.
557 AM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024 - Warmer weather is expected today, especially across far southwest Kansas where highs could reach the 80s to lower 90s. Cooler 70s and 80s are forecast from Dodge City north and east.
237 AM PDT Sun Aug 11 2024 Slightly cooler today with continued chances of thunderstorms over the mountains and deserts.