Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Rain chances increase on Monday as a cold front moves through.
Elsewhere, we have downgraded the warning to an advisory over a large chunk of central ND, mainly along the I-94 corridor north to the Highway 200 corridor.
High clouds will start to thin out a bit by early afternoon with high temperatures climbing into the low to mid 60s. The main focus for this afternoon's package will be on the strong gradient winds expected tomorrow as a deep mid-level trough moves into the Lower Mississippi Valley. Conditions will change on Monday as a strong upper level low treks across the Central Plains.
High temperatures today will also be a few degrees cooler than yesterday, with most of the valley seeing highs in the low 60's and some locations seeing highs in the high 50's. As the trough aloft moves to the east, the area is expected to clear out by Monday morning.
1111 AM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024 - Rain and freezing rain (and a few rumbles of thunder) continue to slide across the area this morning. - Severe thunderstorms are possible late this afternoon and evening, the main risk area southwest of a line from Cambridge to Beloit, and the main timeframe for severe is 4pm to midnight.
Scattered rain and snow showers return this afternoon, mainly to the higher terrain.
1250 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024 (Today and tonight) Early this morning, an upper-level trough was digging southward over the Four Corners region. The aforementioned upper low should track through the Rockies and into western Kansas today. Some gusts near 50 are possible, but this should be confined to the highest elevations, such as the hills south of Abilene. Storms should develop just ahead of this cold front/dryline combo late this afternoon and and evening, then push eastward.
240 PM EDT Sun Mar 24 2024 High pressure centered over Quebec will assure that most areas will experience moonlit skies tonight with another day of full sunshine on Monday. The start of the new work week will also mark a period of notably warmer weather.
Much of the lower and mid level cloud cover should dissipate with the loss of daytime convective influence, leaving just high cloud the concern for the overnight.
610 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024 Winds will begin to pickup overnight as a low pressure system approaches from the west.
859 PM MDT Sun Mar 24 2024 Cold front has stalled across the eastern Magic Valley into the lower Snake Plain. Much of the lower and mid level cloud cover should dissipate with the loss of daytime convective influence, leaving just high cloud the concern for the overnight.
A prominent dry slot/deeper layer of dry air is evident on the low-level WV band (and in the upper/mid bands, although less obvious) where little to no precipitation is occurring across south-central SD early this afternoon. As the upper trough ejects into the central Plains later tonight into Monday, the low-level/mid-level cyclone will further develop southeast of the forecast area. Despite the lower snow totals, will continue with current winter weather headlines given locally higher snow amount potential, strong winds, and travel impacts expected tonight into tomorrow. Cold air will linger through mid-week as upper troughing persists across the central portion of the country. Upper level ridging will slowly build from west to east for the latter half of the week with drier, southwesterly flow developing to end the week.
Temperatures are currently trending approximately 5 to 10 degrees warmer than this time yesterday, valid at 145 PM PDT.
Other than a slight chance of showers Monday afternoon, the first half of the week will feature drier and warmer conditions.
616 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024 (This evening through Monday) Winds have already begun to ramp up this afternoon as the upper trough over the Great Basin brings in a strong 80 knot 500mb jet across West Texas. Given the high winds already present with the upper level system, severe wind gusts and dry downbursts cannot be ruled out. A cold front will dive southward through the forecast area tomorrow morning with continued breezy northwest winds following the front. Cold Canadian air will bring near freezing temperatures tomorrow morning across the aforementioned areas and therefore a chance for light snow showers.
518 PM EDT Sun Mar 24 2024 - Freezing temperatures are forecast for some of the deeper valleys tonight.
741 PM EDT Sun Mar 24 2024 Dry, quiet weather is expected today into tomorrow under high pressure.
Winds will begin to pickup overnight as a low pressure system approaches from the west.
Calmer, cooler weather will build in early this week with widespread valley fog and frost early this week.
- A cold front will reach the western fringes of the local area by midnight. A period of freezing rain will likely precede a switch to snow with a glaze up to a tenth of an inch of ice accumulation possible. Freezing rain will likely reach the 281 corridor around sunrise, dissipating as it moves further east by 9 AM. - Strong northwest winds (with gusts of 50 to 55 MPH) will overspread the area behind the cold front.
The primary hazard is large hail given significant cloud layer shear (~100 knots) and low freezing level heights. The limiting factor for a more robust risk for severe weather is the lack of low-level moisture (dew points in the low to mid 50s deg F) and the narrow instability corridor ahead of the dryline (owing to the cloud cover from the current convection). However, if a robust, surface-based supercell is able to maintain itself into the evening hours as the low-level jet strengthens to 55 to 65 knots, there will be a tornado risk given the large, looping hodographs in the low-levels (i. The Canadian cold front will enter northwest Oklahoma Monday morning with a much colder air mass behind it. Surface temperatures will likely be above freezing, so no impacts from the snowfall are expected.
527 PM EDT Sun Mar 24 2024 Dry, quiet weather is expected today into tomorrow under high pressure.
715 PM EDT Sun Mar 24 2024 The region will remain under the influence of high pressure centered to the east through Monday.
Currently - A surface pressure ridge aligned over the Atlantic States and the southeast is generating gentle northeasterly breezes along the Keys and surrounding waters. Stable post cold front conditions remain across the Keys. This evenings sounding indicated considerable dry air through the lower and mid level with substantial inhibition at multiple levels. Surface dew points are broadly in the mid 60s with temperatures in the lower to mid 70s. Short Term Update - The previously mentioned ridge will build further south through Florida through the overnight period. High pressure over the east coast states will build down the Florida Peninsula overnight.
929 PM EDT Sun Mar 24 2024 The region will remain under the influence of high pressure centered to the east through Monday.
Drier conditions are occurring across portions of central Missouri as moisture return it slower here and warmer temperatures are occurring at. Late Monday afternoon into the evening hours a cold front will move east through the region. Some light precipitation will remain possible across the area Monday night on the back side of the low.
150 AM EDT Mon Mar 25 2024 After a cold night, temperatures will trend warmer becoming above seasonal averages by Tuesday.
213 AM EDT Mon Mar 25 2024 The region will remain under the influence of high pressure centered to the east through Monday. Additional showers and thunderstorms will occur Tuesday into Tuesday night until a cold front passes.
Across our area, all was quiet despite some weak radar returns in east central Iowa and west central Illinois, the dry air in place at the low levels was helping prevent precip from reaching the ground. For Tuesday, a surface cold front and upper level low will traverse the area with rain chances lingering through the day. Highs will be much cooler with values ranging from the low to mid 40s, and should occur around midday before strengthening CAA with a cold front sends temps lower during the afternoon. The weather will improve for midweek as high pressure builds across the Plains and Midwest.
but do think isolated/scattered convection will move into WRN sections over the next few hrs along/ahead of a prefrontal trough over ERN/SERN OK. This trough will move east into AR by mid- morning. Convection will become likely along/behind this SFC prefrontal trough. with the cold front moving into AR later this evening. Expect this cold front to move east of the CWA by sometime Tue morning.
Temperatures trend warmer mid- week before another series of weather systems bring precipitation to the region late week into the weekend. The axis of a broad upper level trough is shifting eastward across the central CONUS, allowing a northwesterly flow to develop across the Northern Rockies. Temperatures remain on the cooler side of average for the next two days, but do trend closer to average heading toward mid-week.
Starting tonight, the low-level wind field strengthens but the stable overnight hours will prevent gusty winds from mixing down. The cold front breezes through Tuesday afternoon such that all rain/storms should end by early Tuesday night.
As for headlines, have converted much of the winter storm warning to a winter weather advisory with the exception of far south central North Dakota into the lower James River Valley, as impacts over the converted areas have diminished with snow becoming quite light and blowing snow becoming quite hit and miss. Elsewhere, we have downgraded the warning to an advisory over a large chunk of central ND, mainly along the I-94 corridor north to the Highway 200 corridor. Lows Monday night may drop below freezing in portions of the west.
1246 AM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024 (This evening through Monday) Winds have already begun to ramp up this afternoon as the upper trough over the Great Basin brings in a strong 80 knot 500mb jet across West Texas. Given the high winds already present with the upper level system, severe wind gusts and dry downbursts cannot be ruled out. A cold front will dive southward through the forecast area tomorrow morning with continued breezy northwest winds following the front. Cold Canadian air will bring near freezing temperatures tomorrow morning across the aforementioned areas and therefore a chance for light snow showers.
(Today and tonight) A northwest flow pattern will prevail aloft as high pressure advances towards the area from the northeast Pacific.
Lastly, the easterly winds are keeping temperatures in the lower to mid 70s with dew points in the mid 60s. The aforementioned high pressure that is wedged between features will continue to impose a tighter pressure gradient across the region through Tuesday morning. By Tuesday afternoon the low currently located in the Central Plains will eject northeast into the Great Lakes Region.
(Today and tonight) Regional surface observations show a powerful cyclone across the central Plains, with surface pressures around 985 mb across southwest Kansas. Southeast Oklahoma, where a weak prefrontal trough will set up by early afternoon, will push toward 70 before the Arctic front arrives, while daytime temperatures will struggle to reach 40 across northwest Oklahoma. First, in northwest Oklahoma, wraparound moisture from the upper-level trough will pivot through this afternoon. Colder air will continue to filter in tonight with a hard freeze expected for much of northern and western Oklahoma and the freezing line potentially approaching I-44.
Still looks like any severe potential will be on the low side.
- Monday and Monday Night will be warmer with periodic rain showers. Tonight - Snow changing to rain The warm front will lift northward across the northern half of the forecast area. The only changes were to north-central Wisconsin where the ranges look to be coming in on the lower end of guidance. As this warmer air aloft moves northward the snow will transition to rain. With more showers expected, the high temperatures are slightly cooler for Monday south of Interstate 94 with highs in the lower and mid-50s. Tuesday - Rain changing back to snow with little accumulations expected On Tuesday morning, a cold front will move east through the area.
(Today through Tuesday) The most recent surface analysis from the Weather Prediction Center indicates a cold front bisecting the Lone Star State from north to south. Finally, elevated seas along the Lower Texas Coast, produced by the recent enhanced pressure gradient and the subsequent passage of the cold front, will lead to a High Risk of rip currents at the local beaches until around sunrise Tuesday.
A deepening lee cyclone in Colorado (~984 mb invof Lamar, CO at 2045 UTC) will track E into south-central KS (this evening) and ENE-NE into far northeast Kansas/far southeast Nebraska by mid- day (18Z) Monday. Strong low-level northerly flow on the western periphery of the mid-latitude cyclone will 'tap' a Canadian airmass (over Alberta/Saskatchewan/Manitoba). Hazard (Strong N Winds): Strong northerly winds will develop this evening as the aforementioned lee cyclone progresses east toward central KS. and an Arctic airmass /cold front/ surges southeastward into the area. Hazard (Snow/Blowing Snow): Heavy precipitation will develop on the W and NW periphery of the mid-latitude cyclone this evening-overnight, persisting into Monday.
(Today and tonight) As of 1:30 am a surface cold front has entered the far northwestern Texas Panhandle and is quickly moving south. This front will keep temperatures much cooler today with high temperatures only warming to near 40 across the southwestern Texas Panhandle to the lower 60s across the Rolling Plains where the front will be slower to move through.
343 AM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024 - Snow totals continue to come down, with additional amounts today/tonight around 6 inches across the east, mainly in the higher terrain of the Sisseton hills region. Snow amounts continue to come down, and now it could be a struggle to get even 6 inches across the east, unless you're in the higher terrain of the Sisseton Hills.
136 AM EDT Mon Mar 25 2024 Cool and dry high pressure will build in through early this week with a return to more seasonable temperatures by Tuesday.
211 AM EDT Mon Mar 25 2024 High pressure will keep the weather dry through Tuesday afternoon.
338 AM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024 - Sharp cold front slowly pushes through area today.
(Today through Tuesday) Mostly dry and pleasant weather continues through the short term as mid-level ridging builds over the Gulf of Mexico and the Deep South.
High pressure will continue to build down the state with the gradient relaxing through Tuesday.
Drier conditions are occurring across portions of central Missouri as moisture return it slower here and warmer temperatures are occurring at. Late Monday afternoon into the evening hours a cold front will move east through the region. Some light precipitation will remain possible across the area Monday night on the back side of the low. Lows Monday night into Tuesday will drop into the middle 20s to the lower 30s as highs Tuesday only warm into the upper 30s the middle 40s.
Dynamic upper low will be slow to move east-northeast across the central Plains the next 18-24 hours as the surface cold front merges with the dry-line by late morning across south central Kansas. While relatively warmer surface temperatures may limit initial accums, it seems plausible that an inch or two of snow is possible with stronger north winds creating minor travel impacts for this area either side of the I-70 corridor.
As cold air wraps around the west side of the low, strong cold frontogenesis along with broad surface convergence ahead of this front present opportunities for deeper convection later this afternoon and evening. As the low moves north and east, it becomes more negatively tilted and convection forms along the cold front. The primary uncertainties are the timing of convective initiation and how fast the cold front will move. The cold front lines up with the 540 1000mb-500mb thickness line which indicates much colder air intruding into the area. It is appearing more likely that wintry precipitation will wrap around the low as it leaves the region Monday night into Tuesday morning bringing some sleet and snow into the area.
(Today and tonight) Early this morning, the Pacific-based cold front that brought rain and thunderstorms was sprawled from the Big Country down to the Edwards Plateau. The cold front should push eastward as the parent low moves out to the Missouri Valley later today. This should allow skies to clear out by mid-morning and temperatures to climb to the low to mid 70s this afternoon. The upper-level trough driving this entire system should also deepen and push a second, continental-based, cold front into Texas this afternoon and evening. Weak high-pressure at the surface should build in behind the front and allow temperatures to fall to the 30s overnight. Some rural locations in the northern Big Country could drop to near freezing by sunrise tomorrow morning.
334 AM EDT Mon Mar 25 2024 Cold and dry high pressure will extend southward through the region through Tuesday.
1206 AM EDT Mon Mar 25 2024 High pressure builds across the region tonight into Tuesday.
- Numerous showers and some thunderstorms are expected today into Tuesday with the approach and passage of a cold front. The associated cold front will reach areas just west of the PAH forecast area by 06z Tuesday, moving through the middle Mississippi and lower Ohio valleys late tonight through the day Tuesday. Thunderstorms are possible in southeast Missouri by late this afternoon, then across our entire area this evening as the cold front starts to push through our area.
353 AM EDT Mon Mar 25 2024 Surface ridging will keep fair and seasonable weather conditions through Tuesday.
Synoptically, ridge of high pressure aloft at the surface remains in control over the area, while upper low moves into the Plains.
949 AM EDT Mon Mar 25 2024 The region will remain under the influence of high pressure centered to the east through the daylight hours today. Additional showers and thunderstorms will occur Tuesday into Tuesday night until a cold front passes. High pressure will then offer dry weather and a warming trend through the end of the week. A large mid and upper level trof to dominate much of the central and western CONUS Tuesday. The highest gusts to occur over West Central Ohio. Behind the cold front, high pressure begins to nose in from the west, providing westerly flow.
637 AM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024 (Today and tonight) As of 1:30 am a surface cold front has entered the far northwestern Texas Panhandle and is quickly moving south. This front will keep temperatures much cooler today with high temperatures only warming to near 40 across the southwestern Texas Panhandle to the lower 60s across the Rolling Plains where the front will be slower to move through.
Our weather system from the last several days has ceased with drier and warmer weather the main impacts early this week.
602 AM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024 (Today and tonight) Regional surface observations show a powerful cyclone across the central Plains, with surface pressures around 985 mb across southwest Kansas. Southeast Oklahoma, where a weak prefrontal trough will set up by early afternoon, will push toward 70 before the Arctic front arrives, while daytime temperatures will struggle to reach 40 across northwest Oklahoma. First, in northwest Oklahoma, wraparound moisture from the upper-level trough will pivot through this afternoon. Colder air will continue to filter in tonight with a hard freeze expected for much of northern and western Oklahoma and the freezing line potentially approaching I-44.
748 AM EDT Mon Mar 25 2024 (Today through Tuesday) Mostly dry and pleasant weather continues through the short term as mid-level ridging builds over the Gulf of Mexico and the Deep South.
A high pressure ridge was nosing south along the North Dakota and Montana border. The area east and south of Bismarck will continue to be impacted by the low through today and into tonight. Confidence is high (90%) that temperatures will be warmer for the end of the week but there is a large spread in solutions to what those temperatures will actually be. So, warmer, just how much warmer remains to be determined.
Cooler temperatures, chances for showers and mountain snow, and increased winds would likely accompany this system. A deep, longwave trough will continue to impact southeastern Arizona through Tuesday, with cooler than normal temperatures, diurnal convection, and breezy winds.
620 AM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024 - Sharp cold front slowly pushes through area today.
Drier and warmer weather returns mid-week, however winter weather potentially make a return over the weekend. However, areas of low clouds and patchy fog look to remain over the High Country, which could keep temperatures not as cold. Any untreated surfaces overnight will likely be slick overnight as temperatures fall below freezing. Rain and snow-showers redevelop this afternoon as Arizona remains within the grip of a longwave trough.
The development of light streamer showers has stabilized the lower atmosphere and as a result, some sites are less than 10KT with no gusts. /24/ (Tuesday Night through Monday) The weather will only be briefly cooler with the air mass staying to our north. This along with plenty of sunshine and no secondary cold fronts, will bring back the low to mid 80s for the weekend.
640 AM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024 - Snow totals continue to come down, with additional amounts today/tonight around 6 inches across the east, mainly in the higher terrain of the Sisseton hills region. Snow amounts continue to come down, and now it could be a struggle to get even 6 inches across the east, unless you're in the higher terrain of the Sisseton Hills.
639 AM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024 (Today through Tuesday) The most recent surface analysis from the Weather Prediction Center indicates a cold front bisecting the Lone Star State from north to south. Finally, elevated seas along the Lower Texas Coast, produced by the recent enhanced pressure gradient and the subsequent passage of the cold front, will lead to a High Risk of rip currents at the local beaches until around sunrise Tuesday.
High pressure remains elongated over the eastern seaboard today, weakening into tonight ahead of the next cold front. The highest winds are forecast along the coast.
620 AM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024 (Today and tonight) Early this morning, the Pacific-based cold front that brought rain and thunderstorms was sprawled from the Big Country down to the Edwards Plateau. The cold front should push eastward as the parent low moves out to the Missouri Valley later today. This should allow skies to clear out by mid-morning and temperatures to climb to the low to mid 70s this afternoon. The upper-level trough driving this entire system should also deepen and push a second, continental-based, cold front into Texas this afternoon and evening. Weak high-pressure at the surface should build in behind the front and allow temperatures to fall to the 30s overnight. Some rural locations in the northern Big Country could drop to near freezing by sunrise tomorrow morning.
Water vapor imagery highlights a synoptic trough over the Plains and northwestern Mexico, butted up against the subtropical ridge centered over the extreme Western Caribbean. The forecast is on track and calls for slim rain chances and highs in the lower 80s. High pressure located along the Eastern Seaboard is wedged between a low across the Atlantic and a low over the Central Plains.
509 AM MDT Mon Mar 25 2024 Upper trough will be over central states early this week, pulling a cold Canadian high pressure into the northern plains. As temperatures clear out with this high, temperatures will be dropping to near zero across much of the cwa tonight, with only slightly warmer readings for Tuesday night. With the extra daylight provided by the early spring, expect some melting of the recent snow, mainly on or near paved surfaces, even with air temperatures remaining below the freezing mark. After midweek temperatures will begin to rise as an upper ridge moves across the region.
1027 AM EDT Mon Mar 25 2024 Surface ridging will keep fair and seasonable weather conditions through Tuesday.