Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
(Today through Tuesday) An upper-level trough over the Rocky Mountains will continue to shift east into the Central Plains today. Ahead of the trough, a 30- 40 kt LLJ will remain along the Texas Coast through the morning before weakening and moving offshore this afternoon. As the trough pushes further east through the period, it will help push a cold front south into Central Texas this tonight.
It will dig today and tonight and become a closed low on Tuesday.
The low chance of convection is in response to an embedded short wave aloft combining with low level moisture with PWATs expected to increase to around 1. With the potential for increased cloud cover and rain chances today and Tuesday, temperatures may be a tad cooler as well.
a cold front will drop SE through much of the state as flow aloft briefly becomes NW over the region.
1225 AM CDT Mon May 26 2025 (Tonight through Monday night) The upper-level ridge that has persisted over Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley will be moving further to the east as an upper- level trough moves westward into the Central Plains close to the end of the short term forecast period. As for the temperatures, the high temperatures for tomorrow are expected to mostly in the 90s for the region. Areas right along the coast could also be in the lower 90s as well. The low temperatures for tonight and tomorrow night are expected to be mostly in the 70s, with the extreme southern parts of the CWA in the lower 80s.
Breezy, erratic winds with gusts up to 40 MPH may occur with a stronger storm, as well as some small hail, nothing we're not used to in the High Plains. Low temperatures look to get slightly cooler, dropping into the mid 40s. The upper pattern becomes more zonal to northwesterly as a ridge begins to build over the Western CONUS.
317 AM EDT Mon May 26 2025 Quite the lovely day for most this Memorial Day with high pressure bringing mostly sunny skies and warm temperatures. High pressure and dry weather sticks around through Tuesday.
Afterward, the flow pattern teleconnects to zonal flow aloft here while a broader long wave trof to our north takes shape. As a result, we'll get a drier, warmer mid week, with temps returning into and upward thru the 70s. By week's end, the aforementioned broad long wave trof aloft barrels across the Ohio Valley. The 8-14 day outlook suggests above normal temps in a building ridge pattern takes hold by then. Some MVFR bases may come into play thereafter, as rain chances pick up this pm/evening with a low pressure wave ridging along the surface boundary to our south.
An upper level trough will move into the Plains tonight into Monday and will move across the region through Tuesday.
1221 AM CDT Mon May 26 2025 - Excessive rainfall expected tonight across south-central to southeast Kansas - On and off showers and storms remain possible through the late work week - Drier and warmer conditions expected going into the weekend Currently, there is a trough moving into the Desert Southwest with a weak ridge traversing towards the Midwest, resulting in southwesterly flow aloft in our area. 5" with the highest totals generally in southern to southeast Kansas. This keeps the axis of low-level convergence from the surface warm front in Kansas, and supplies lift for more showers and storms Monday afternoon to Monday night. Continuing into Tuesday, the upper trough lifts and slows becoming an upper-low over the Northern Plains, making flow aloft northwesterly/westerly in our area.
257 AM EDT Mon May 26 2025 High pressure over the Great Lakes will build into New York and Pennsylvania and bring dry weather for Memorial Day.
The heaviest and most widespread rain looks to start overnight Monday night and go into the day Tuesday as the upper- level trough axis approaches from the west.
135 AM EDT Mon May 26 2025 High pressure building over the Great Lakes and into the Northeast will bring dry weather for Memorial Day.
High pressure surface and aloft will persist over the area through midweek.
128 AM MDT Mon May 26 2025 - Warmer today with a lesser coverage of showers and thunderstorms, mainly in and near the mountains.
The heaviest and most widespread rain looks to start overnight Monday and go into the day Tuesday as the upper-level trough axis approaches from the west.
258 AM EDT Mon May 26 2025 While we start to see slightly warmer temperatures today, a spot shower or two cannot be ruled out, especially across the interior.
- Rain and cooler temperatures continue through the mid week period. The governing high pressure air mass has had a few days to modify while a steady NE low level wind still keeps temperatures in check this afternoon. It also remains prone to cumulus development during peak daytime instability but also kept in check by a subsidence inducing 500 mb short wave ridge overhead through this evening. High pressure stays in control of ground conditions tonight and for most of Tuesday, beginning with clear sky and cool temperatures this evening. High clouds steadily thicken after midnight into Tuesday morning as the first sign of the next low pressure system projected to move into the TN/OH valleys during the day.
Issued by National Weather Service Billings MT 221 AM MDT Mon May 26 2025 KEY MESSAGES: - Generally dry and warmer conditions most of the time this week. - Temperatures will continue trending warmer this week. WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Elongated upper trough weaken across the region today will reconfigure itself into a closed upper over North Dakota by Tuesday morning. Meanwhile, a narrow upper ridge will move east from the northern Rockies. High pressure over the Dakotas and pressure falls along the front range today will bring a tighter surface gradient over eastern Montana.
Low temperatures early Memorial Day morning will range in the low to mid 50s, a few degrees below seasonal averages. By Tuesday evening, mid to upper level ridging builds over the western U.
209 AM EDT Mon May 26 2025 -High pressure will lead to beautiful Memorial Day weather. Midlevel pattern overhead depicts a split flow set-up with longwave troughing centered over Nova Scotia advecting northeasterly. Current troughing lee of the Rockies continues to advect eastward, while deepening with closed low pressure pivoting across the Great Lakes region.
(Today) Northwest flow aloft across the TN Valley will gradually subside this morning, as a low amplitude ridge (extending northward from a broader subtropical high across the southeastern Gulf/northwestern Caribbean Sea) translates eastward through the Lower MS Valley. The low cloud layer will in all likelihood persist for much of the morning, and this along with the position of the confluence axis (mentioned above) will have an impact on the risk for redevelopment of thunderstorms later today.
- A warmer weekend is on the way. Today, skies will be initially clearing into the early morning, with mid clouds still hanging on in spots, but by afternoon, we will again see cloud cover on the increase in all areas as lift begins from the approaching upper trof of low pressure. The sun/filtered sun today will bring highs to the lower 70s in most locations, and with east winds around 10-15 mph, a pleasant day looks to be in store for all locations.
An upper trough was noted over the central Rockies per the 07Z water vapor imagery with a more amplified trough along the west coast. Surface obs placed a low pressure system over the Big Bend of TX with a stationary front arching northeast into north TX. High pressure was centered over the Upper Midwest. Eventually the trough is forecast to get absorbed into a closed low to the north of the forecast area on Tuesday with the bulk of the dynamics lifting east of the area. With some weak cold air advection there is not expected to be much of a diurnal change from low to high and max temps are forecast to remain around 60 and into the lower 60s.
- Unsettled pattern in the early to middle parts of this coming week, with chances of strong to severe thunderstorms along with cooler temperatures. Complex of thunderstorm is expected to develop in the Panhandle along a cold front late this afternoon, and quickly move southeast into the Big Country this evening.
1201 AM CDT Mon May 26 2025 (Tonight through Monday night) Key Messages: - Moderate to Extreme Risk of Heat-Related Impacts (level 2-4 out of 4) today and Monday As the ridge axis shifts further east over the short term period, not much change is expected through the beginning of this week apart from increasing moisture as PWAT's climb above the 75th percentile.
Warmer temps 10-20 degrees above average by the end of the week with a moderate risk for heat-related illness among those susceptible to heat. (Today and tonight) A slew of high clouds moving through the region this morning in response to a weak upper level trough. A few inland locations may end up a bit cooler than yesterday due to the increased cloud cover.
624 AM CDT Mon May 26 2025 Today through Tuesday Latest water vapor imagery shows a trough digging into the northern Rockies and Plains, with zonal to slightly southwesterly flow over the local area. The aforementioned trough and surface boundary to our west will make very little progress on Tuesday, with zonal flow persisting over the local area. Highs will warm into the upper 80s to lower 90s each afternoon and dewpoints aren't expected to mix out, likely remaining in the lower 70s.
656 AM EDT Mon May 26 2025 Slow moving low pressure system exits into the Maritimes today.
739 AM EDT Mon May 26 2025 High pressure over the Great Lakes will build into New York and Pennsylvania and bring dry weather for Memorial Day.
430 AM MDT Mon May 26 2025 - Warmer today with a lesser coverage of showers and thunderstorms, mainly in and near the mountains.
501 AM EDT Mon May 26 2025 Slow moving low pressure system exits into the Maritimes today.
901 AM EDT Mon May 26 2025 -High pressure will lead to beautiful Memorial Day weather. Midlevel pattern overhead depicts a split flow set-up with longwave troughing centered over Nova Scotia advecting northeasterly. Current troughing lee of the Rockies continues to advect eastward, while deepening with closed low pressure pivoting across the Great Lakes region.
Unseasonably cool temperatures will prevail in most places today, with highs ranging from the lower 60s in parts of northwest Arkansas to the upper 70s near the Red River.
A front will produce cooler temperatures and a few showers today.
549 AM CDT Mon May 26 2025 - Near to slightly below normal temperatures through the middle of the week, with a gradual warming trend toward the lower 80s after.
645 AM EDT Mon May 26 2025 Quite the lovely day for most this Memorial Day with high pressure bringing mostly sunny skies and warm temperatures. High pressure and dry weather sticks around through Tuesday.
639 AM CDT Mon May 26 2025 (Today) Northwest flow aloft across the TN Valley will gradually subside this morning, as a low amplitude ridge (extending northward from a broader subtropical high across the southeastern Gulf/northwestern Caribbean Sea) translates eastward through the Lower MS Valley. The low cloud layer will in all likelihood persist for much of the morning, and this along with the position of the confluence axis (mentioned above) will have an impact on the risk for redevelopment of thunderstorms later today.
623 AM EDT Mon May 26 2025 -High pressure will lead to beautiful Memorial Day weather. Midlevel pattern overhead depicts a split flow set-up with longwave troughing centered over Nova Scotia advecting northeasterly. Current troughing lee of the Rockies continues to advect eastward, while deepening with closed low pressure pivoting across the Great Lakes region.
732 AM EDT Mon May 26 2025 While we start to see slightly warmer temperatures today, a spot shower or two cannot be ruled out, especially across the interior.
* A low pressure system will move through the lower Ohio Valley bringing showers and a few storms Tuesday.
614 AM CDT Mon May 26 2025 (Today through Tuesday) An upper-level trough over the Rocky Mountains will continue to shift east into the Central Plains today. Ahead of the trough, a 30- 40 kt LLJ will remain along the Texas Coast through the morning before weakening and moving offshore this afternoon. As the trough pushes further east through the period, it will help push a cold front south into Central Texas this tonight.
Daily temperatures will remain near-normal (75/55) beneath an upper-level trough, turning hotter (84/60) over the weekend and into early June as heights rise and a ridge builds across the central US.
While greatest precipitation coverage is anticipated along the mountains, a couple showers or thunderstorms pushing off the higher terrain and across the valleys or adjacent I-25 corridor can not be ruled out given the northwesterly flow. As for temperatures, a warmer day is expected, though many will still remain below seasonal values for late May.
Aloft, ridging to our west is expected to build eastward, subsequently easing the surface pressure gradient across North Dakota.
Broad upper troughing prevails this afternoon across the center of the US with ridging over the eastern and western quarters of the country. There is persistent lift ahead of the trough which shows up well in 295K to 305K isentropic plots. For Tuesday, cooler than normal conditions will persist as it looks like widespread low clouds will linger through most, if not all, of the day. So high temperatures in the low to mid 60s look likely. By midweek, the upper trough that has been persistent in the Northern Plains becomes cutoff and meanders from the Northern Plains into the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes regions.
- Unsettled pattern in the early to middle parts of this coming week, with chances of strong to severe thunderstorms along with cooler temperatures. Weak cold front/outflow boundary extended from Big Lake to Eldorado to Junction line this afternoon, with mostly sunny skies allowing good heating to take place.
Low level Turbulence should be expected this afternoon due to strong, gusty winds in the lower levels. Rain probabilities diminish later in the morning outside the higher terrain. High pressure builds Tuesday and offshore flow will likely clear skies across NW California, at least outside the coast.
Lows tonight likely in the lower 50s for most locations, but some upper 40s are possible. Despite mostly cloudy skies Tuesday, highs back in the mid/upper 60s are expected for most areas, maybe a few locations tagging 70 but continued cooler temps near Lake Michigan with easterly winds.
An upper level trough will approach the area today which will bring breezy southwest winds this afternoon. The overall synoptic pattern is unremarkable as the trough and associated pressure gradient weakens as it moves into California. The trough will lack moisture and strong forcing, so precipitation is not expected with this system. On Tuesday, the trough will shift east and ridging will start to build into the region. This will result in continued dry conditions and clearing skies after clouds increase today and tonight with the trough axis. High temperatures on Tuesday will be 2-4 degrees warmer than today.
1129 AM MDT Mon May 26 2025 - Warmer today with a lesser coverage of showers and thunderstorms, mainly in and near the mountains.
As the split-flow regime persists, a ridge of high pressure will shift over the Borderland tomorrow.
There will also be some upper level divergence and positive vorticity during the day Tuesday, but dry air will be slow to erode resulting in another nice day tomorrow with highs in the low 70s.
123 PM EDT Mon May 26 2025 -High pressure will lead to beautiful Memorial Day weather. Midlevel pattern overhead depicts a split flow set-up with longwave troughing centered over Nova Scotia advecting northeasterly. Current troughing lee of the Rockies continues to advect eastward, while deepening with closed low pressure pivoting across the Great Lakes region.
A cold front looks to move over Florida bringing a more widespread chance of showers and dropping temperatures and dew points a couple of degrees in its wake. No major marine concerns through the next several days as weak high pressure lingers. A cold front approaches the water at the end of the week brining elevated winds and a chance for thunderstorms over the water.
A narrow ridge was over the Intermountain West. However, quite the array of mesoscale solutions, so won't back off the higher PoPs for tomorrow quite yet.
154 PM EDT Mon May 26 2025 High pressure will bring dry and warmer conditions today through Tuesday.
1213 PM CDT Mon May 26 2025 - Near to slightly below normal temperatures through the middle of the week, with a gradual warming trend toward the lower 80s after.
133 PM PDT Mon May 26 2025 Dry and slightly warmer today with periods of breezy winds on the coastal mountain slopes into the deserts.
Looking at calm and warm conditions, with highs in the 70s and a few areas getting to the lower 80s (northern Red River Valley). An omega block type pattern remains in place over the northern Rockies with a open trough lingering over our CWA.
Otherwise, expect seasonably warm temperatures, with forecast highs between 3 and 6 degrees above-normal both today and Tuesday as a ridge of high pressure builds over the southeastern Pacific.
218 PM EDT Mon May 26 2025 Cool high pressure moving across the Great Lakes and New York will cause unseasonably cool weather on Tuesday for the western Carolinas and northeast Georgia with a brief wedge pattern.
303 PM EDT Mon May 26 2025 High pressure will gradually retreat into New England through Tuesday as a weak low pressure system moves northeast into the Ohio Valley.
1228 PM CDT Mon May 26 2025 (Today through Tuesday) An upper-level trough over the Rocky Mountains will continue to shift east into the Central Plains today. Ahead of the trough, a 30- 40 kt LLJ will remain along the Texas Coast through the morning before weakening and moving offshore this afternoon. As the trough pushes further east through the period, it will help push a cold front south into Central Texas this tonight.
- Cooler today with storm chances returning this afternoon and evening. - Cooler with thunderstorm chances each afternoon Tuesday through the weekend, some storms may become severe. (This evening through Tuesday) Thunderstorms chances tonight likely come with convection that comes off the higher terrain of New Mexico in zonal flow aloft, supported by an upper level trough ejecting across the central and southern High Plains, and into an air mass with elevated instability with CAPE values potentially in excess of 1000 J/kg. It remains uncertain whether this convection will survive coming off the high terrain, although a majority of CAMs suggest it will. Tuesday will continue to see a decent amount of cloud cover as no significant change in pattern is expected, apart from some modest subsidence behind tonight's departing mid/upper trough.
1222 PM MDT Mon May 26 2025 KEY MESSAGES: - A cold front today will cause thunderstorms today with a less than 5% chance of severe weather, especially south and east of Missoula.
Afterward, the flow pattern teleconnects to zonal flow aloft here while a broader long wave trof to our north takes shape. As a result, we'll get a drier, warmer mid week, with temps returning into and upward thru the 70s. By week's end, the aforementioned broad long wave trof aloft barrels across the Ohio Valley. The 8-14 day outlook suggests above normal temps in a building ridge pattern takes hold by then.
Omega block remains in place across much of CONUS over the next several days, with a deepening trough over the northern plains.
1244 PM EDT Mon May 26 2025 High pressure will bring dry and warmer conditions today through Tuesday.
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Upper low over the upper Midwest will slowly drift east as an upper ridge builds into the northern Rockies.
128 PM EDT Mon May 26 2025 Slow moving low pressure system exits into the Maritimes today.
High pressure builds in with clearing skies and cool conditions tonight, with fair weather and slightly above normal temperatures Tuesday.
- High pressure will send temperatures well above normal this week. Water vapor is showing the trough passing across the eastern 1/3 of the CWA late this afternoon with a more distinct spin showing up over the San Juans. Behind this trough drier air is mixing in and the vertical extent of the clouds are diminishing and the coverage of lightning the same. Tuesday will somewhat of a down day with a noticably decrease in convective coverage as an upstream ridge builds overhead. With the ridge comes lighter winds and the threat of critical fire weather will remain very low with only localized areas popping up in the late afternoon.
An expansive area of high pressure at the surface centered over the Great Lakes has low-level flow over the Middle Mississippi Valley east-northeasterly. The trough becomes somewhat cut off early Tuesday as it slowly spins eastward across the Northern Plains and Upper-Midwest. Subtle disturbances on the southern periphery of the upper low will ripple overhead within southwesterly flow, keeping rain chances going through the day.
739 PM EDT Mon May 26 2025 High pressure will bring dry and mild conditions Tuesday.
Update for overnight lows 1-2 degrees warmer will be sent shortly. Daily temperatures will remain near-normal (75/55) beneath an upper-level trough, turning hotter (84/60) over the weekend and into early June as heights rise and a ridge builds across the central US.
Only thing to watch for is wind conditions for the next several hours as a passing cold front increased winds due to high pressure gradients.
10 PM EDT observations showed temperatures in the lower to mid 80s, and we still expect that these numbers will come down only a couple of degrees through the rest of the night. From synopsis, high pressure will remain entrenched over the western North Atlantic for the next several days, meandering and fluctuating in strength slightly day to day.
948 PM EDT Mon May 26 2025 High pressure builds in with clearing skies and cool conditions overnight, and with fair weather and slightly above normal temperatures for Tuesday.
Weak upper level trof exiting the 4 corners this afternoon was bringing scattered cumulus clouds to the White mountains.
945 PM EDT Mon May 26 2025 High pressure builds in with clearing skies and cool conditions overnight, and fair weather and slightly above normal temperatures Tuesday.
The cold front that moved through early today is now east of the area.
An upper level low is still on track to spin over the Upper Midwest today through Wednesday, pulling up an area of 0. Looking ahead, we'll see ridging build in over the Dakotas late week, with an upper level low over Hudson Bay, leading to meridional flow over our area, which could push a couple weak impulses through the area, bringing more very light scattered rain chances.
211 AM EDT Tue May 27 2025 It will be dry as high pressure moves overhead tonight with areas of fog. Scattered instability clouds have formed over much of the area this afternoon with cool air remaining aloft as an upper level trough continues to slowly push east. Heights will rise tomorrow as upper level ridging moves in overhead and it will be a milder day as highs range from the upper 60s to the mid 70s. Upper level low over the Great Lakes swings northeast Wednesday night enhancing moisture behind the departing ridge.
- Warmer temperatures return by the weekend with many locations expected to see highs in the 80s with quiet conditions. Upper level low pressure will be slow to move through the area today, resulting in a more widespread coverage of light rain. With the freezing level around 6 kft some small hail will be possible and potentially wind gusts to around 30-40 mph. One trickier thing to forecast will be the potential for a weak spin up tornado under the upper level low. Weak flow in the low levels may allow for brief funnels and possibly a quick touchdown. Continued cooler conditions with highs mostly mid and upper 60s.