Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1003 PM CDT Sat Oct 5 2024 Sfc ridging remains anchored from the OH/TN vallies SW into E TX this evening, although the higher theta-e air mass has spread farther W across the remainder of the region (E TX/SE OK) compared to 24 hrs ago. The evening satellite imagery does reveal an area of elevated cu cigs that has developed/begun to slowly spread W along the base of the sfc/low level ridge over Cntrl LA into SE and portions of Deep E TX, with the latest 00Z NAM suggesting that these cigs will continue to drift slowly W into the remainder of Deep E TX overnight.
1230 AM CDT Sun Oct 6 2024 (Tonight) High pressure both at the surface and aloft will continue to build in tonight across the TN Valley. The clear and and calm conditions will allow temps to drop down into the mid to low 60s, with the cooler temps north of the TN River.
A cold front moves through the area on Monday and this will bring widespread rainfall to the region. Northern New England will sit within a narrow ridge of high pressure today ahead of a trough of low pressure and associated frontal system to our west. Low pressure located towards the Canadian Maritimes will result in partly to mostly cloudy skies from roughly the Androscoggin River Valley and points north and east with partly to mostly sunny skies to the west. High temperatures will range from the upper 50s across northwestern ME to the lower and middle 60s elsewhere. Clouds increase tonight ahead of an area of low pressure that will track over southern Quebec.
1137 PM CDT Sat Oct 5 2024 (This afternoon through Sunday night) A short wave trough transiting the prairie provinces this afternoon will send a weak cold front down into the Permian Basin after sunup Sunday.
The upper level ridge does shift slightly to the east this evening to provide southwest flow aloft and slightly warmer morning temperatures on Sunday. Afternoon temperatures today have reached into the low 70s across the Basin, which is above normal as highs increase another 3 to 6 degrees Sunday and another 2 to 5 degrees on Monday.
There is a subtle H5 ridge over central Texas, which is having little to do with us as of now. At the surface a very weak inverted trough resides over the central and northern Gulf of Mexico. With fewer clouds around across the northwest half temperatures will climb (under the higher thicknesses and heights to the northwest). The cooler locations will be right along the immediate coast where denser cloudiness may reside. The low level winds have increased due to pressure gradient increase between high pressure to our north and the developing TC across the western Gulf.
Hopefully you enjoyed the brief cool down yesterday, because as high pressure builds back in over the area we will warm up once again.
1048 PM CDT Sat Oct 5 2024 Updated at 253 PM CDT Sat Oct 5 2024 - Cold front comes through late tonight with cooler yet above normal temperatures Sunday to normal cool night temperatures. An upper wave trough digging across the U. Northern Plains & Upper Midwest Regions will be pushing another dry cold front across the Central Plains this evening and into northern Oklahoma early Sunday morning. A Pacific air mass with drier but only temperate cooler air will lag a bit behind Sunday's cold front. Expecting southern Oklahoma and western north Texas to remain pre-frontal at least early in the afternoon so expecting a persistent forecast there with highs again in the lower 90s.
/Issued 1244 AM CDT Sun Oct 6 2024/ /Through Monday/ Water vapor satellite imagery currently indicates an impressive upper low moving east from Manitoba into Ontario, which is generating upper troughing across the Midwest and Great lakes region.
Surface analysis depicts Tropical Storm Milton in the SW Gulf of Mexico, with weak high pressure along the Eastern Seaboard and ridging southward into the Bahamas. MIMIC-TPW satellite imagery shows copious tropical moisture continuing to circulate into the Keys, around a large mid level trough over the Gulf of Mexico.
341 AM CDT Sun Oct 6 2024 - Breezy and cooler conditions are expected today. Issued 341 AM CDT Sun Oct 6 2024 Today and Tonight: Gusty westerly winds are expected today in the wake of a potent low pressure system. The low tracked across Ontario overnight and will continue to progress northeast today. There is a secondary cold front pushing into northwest WI early this morning, and this will give us an extra push of gusty winds in southern WI this afternoon. High pressure will wedge into the Upper Midwest later today and tonight. With a strong surface inversion and cooler air mass overhead, low temperatures should dip into the mid to upper 30s for inland areas.
355 AM EDT Sun Oct 6 2024 Mostly sunny and mild weather prevails for most of the day today before a cold front moves through the area this evening and tonight. It will turn much cooler beginning Monday with scattered lake effect clouds and rain showers around, mainly for Central New York. 355 AM Update: High pressure moves east of the area today as a frontal system approaches the area from the west. Behind the departing cold front, a west-northwest flow will develop on Monday along with 850mb temperatures falling to around 2-3C. It will be noticeably cooler/fall-like with highs in the upper 50s to mid 60s. A strong upper level low dives into Ontario and Quebec with northwest flow behind the front Monday night. Temperatures should fall toward 40 given the cooler airmass advecting in.
1234 AM CDT Sun Oct 6 2024 (This evening through Monday) A large area of upper high pressure continues over much of the central and south U. An upper low will traverse across the Canadian border through the period. The upper high in the southwest U. This high pressure will move into Arkansas Sunday and then into Tennessee Monday. A dry cold front then moves through the state Sunday night. This will bring slightly cooler and drier air to the state. Temperatures will be cooler on Monday. Lows tonight are expected in the lower to mid 60s and upper 40s to mid 60s Sunday night.
An U/L trough over the eastern Gulf of Mexico combined with deep tropical moisture will cause widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms to develop across west central and southwest Florida today with locally heavy rain possible.
305 AM CDT Sun Oct 6 2024 - Elevated fire weather conditions today with breezy winds and very dry air behind a cold front. A dry cold front will move through this morning, bringing somewhat cooler conditions and much drier air to the area.
1229 AM CDT Sun Oct 6 2024 - Eastern portions of the CWA will see a bump in wind speeds again late tonight with a secondary cold front passage.
134 AM CDT Sun Oct 6 2024 - Breezy and very dry conditions will develop behind a cold front this afternoon, bringing elevated fire danger to areas north of Interstate 70 where there is a 20-50% joint probability for gusts greater than 25 mph and RH values less than 25 percent.
835 PM PDT Sat Oct 5 2024 Upper ridge is now over southern California and will bring hot conditions for inland areas through Monday with daytime highs much above normal.
119 AM EDT Sun Oct 6 2024 Warm and dry conditions will continue through the rest of the weekend under the influence of high pressure over the Northeast states.
The combination of a high over the Appalachians and adjacent Atlantic, and disorganized troughing in the eastern Gulf of Mexico is driving light east to southeasterly breezes across our area. The near surface flow is confluent between the ridge and trough, while lower level flows is best represented by a deformation zone across our area. In the short term, the troughing in the eastern gulf is expected to deepen modestly a bit more, staying above 1000 mb.
A cold front approaches tonight and will cross through Monday morning. High pressure presently sits to our north, providing light winds and clear skies this morning.
- Cooler weather (but still above normal temps) for the plains. Cooler weather is expected over the plains today as a cool front has brought cooler air to the plains. Some patchy frost will be possible in the normally cooler areas in the San Luis Valley. Confidence is high (>90%) in a broad upper-level ridge building in across the region. Long-range models do hint at an upper- level trough making its way down into our region later this weekend, but at this time most of the details still need to be better resolved in the data for any clarity.
703 AM CDT Sun Oct 6 2024 (Today through Monday) Central Alabama remains on the northern edge of weak mid level troughing and a moisture axis along the Gulf coast. Weak impulses within the trough and ripples in low level easterly flow have allowed for a few showers to develop this morning across southeast Central Alabama. A trough will move through the Great Lakes tomorrow, pushing a dry front into the area.
Persistent high pressure across the desert SW will keep temperatures across NV well above normal through Monday.
637 AM EDT Sun Oct 6 2024 - Gusty winds to usher in cooler weather to the Northwoods.
551 AM CDT Sun Oct 6 2024 - Elevated fire weather conditions today with breezy winds and very dry air behind a cold front. A dry cold front will move through this morning, bringing somewhat cooler conditions and much drier air to the area.
558 AM CDT Sun Oct 6 2024 Today and tonight: Currently, satellite and water vapor imagery depict dry conditions across the Lower Mississippi Valley region as we remain on the western side of a low level ridge. This low level ridging will increase N/NW flow into our area and continue to promote dry conditions. Cloud cover will remain minimal, with the greatest chance of isolated to scattered cloud cover being in the Pine Belt region, where the greatest moisture exists NW of the ridge. Tonight, dry conditions are expected to prevail with lows in the lower 60s. Patchy fog will be possible in the east as weak moisture advection may occur along the ridge axis.
(Rest of Today) Early morning fog has since dissipated over the area, as high pressure continues to promote warm and dry conditions over the Southeast. A stalled frontal boundary will keep the richer Gulf moisture locked closer to the coastal region, while a second cold front nears the area from the northwest later today. Temperatures will remain on the warmer side of climatological norms, topping out in the upper 80s to lower 90s this afternoon.
620 AM CDT Sun Oct 6 2024 (Today through Monday Night) High pressure will continue to build in from the north through the short term period, and this will result in both increased deep layer subsidence and drying throughout the atmospheric column. The dry airmass will also support a fairly large diurnal range with highs easily climbing into the mid to upper 80s and even into the lower 90s around Baton Rouge both today and tomorrow, but lows will cool into the upper 60s and lower 70s tonight and even fall further into the upper 50s and low to mid 60s by tomorrow night.
656 AM EDT Sun Oct 6 2024 Mostly sunny and mild weather prevails for most of the day today before a cold front moves through the area this evening and tonight. It will turn much cooler beginning Monday with scattered lake effect clouds and rain showers around, mainly for Central New York. 655 AM Update: High pressure moves east of the area today as a frontal system approaches the area from the west. Behind the departing cold front, a west-northwest flow will develop on Monday along with 850mb temperatures falling to around 2-3C. It will be noticeably cooler/fall-like with highs in the upper 50s to mid 60s. A strong upper level low dives into Ontario and Quebec with northwest flow behind the front Monday night. Temperatures should fall toward 40 given the cooler airmass advecting in.
this pattern will produce less clouds, lower humidity, and warmer daytime temperatures across SE TX today and tomorrow. and then the lower to mid 70s at the beaches.
521 AM EDT Sun Oct 6 2024 High pressure will cross the region today. A cold front will begin to approach later tonight, then slowly cross the region Monday while low pressure tracks along the front.
Temperatures will continue to be well above average across the interior today as high pressure continues to dominate. Most valleys are forecast to be in the mid to upper 90s, with triple digits possible in the warmer valleys of Mendocino and Lake Counties. High-res models do show some reflectivity, but the lower levels look very dry. Temperatures are forecast to begin to gradually trend downward starting Monday as high pressure begins to weaken.
* A cooling trend will bring near average October temperatures later in the week as an approaching trough brings increased winds with a low confidence rain potential. High pressure continues to influence our region from the Sierra Crest east into the Great Basin region. * Although the region will remain mostly dry, weak short wave troughs lifting into the ridge will force pockets of energy and modest mid-level moisture into northeast California and the Sierra today and Monday.
824 AM EDT Sun Oct 6 2024 Showers and thunderstorms will be possible later this afternoon and through the evening with a passing cold front. Noticeably cooler temperatures and dry conditions are expected Monday and through the work week. The severe weather threat should rapidly decrease by 00Z and lingering thunderstorm/precipitation threats should clear the Laurel Highlands into the WV mountains before 10 PM with the passage of the cold front and the loss of surface heating. KEY MESSAGES: - Dry conditions resume, with much cooler temperatures. ------------------------------------------------------------------- A much cooler air mass will return to the area behind the mentioned front with temperatures dropping some 20 degrees for highs on Monday, ending up in the low 60s. ------------------------------------------------------------------- Dry conditions will continue the remainder of the week as high pressure remains the dominant feature.
It will be another quiet day with high pressure still in control here.
914 AM EDT Sun Oct 6 2024 High pressure will cross the region today. A cold front will begin to approach later tonight, then slowly cross the region Monday while low pressure tracks along the front.
643 AM EDT Sun Oct 6 2024 High pressure will cross the region today. A cold front will begin to approach later tonight, then slowly cross the region Monday while low pressure tracks along the front.
We have bumped them up just a touch given that we are starting the day slightly warmer than we did yesterday. The issue with today is that there is the potential for a southerly marine surge to impact coastal areas, which would greatly limit the upper end of the high temps.
A high pressure ridge continues to dominate over Central California, leading to triple digit heat in the lower elevations and low relative humidity across the region.
609 AM CDT Sun Oct 6 2024 (Today) A cold front will move south across the area this afternoon and evening.
855 AM EDT Sun Oct 6 2024 Above normal temperatures and mainly dry weather are expected through Monday as high pressure dominates. A cold front should move through Monday night with a few showers possible before high pressure brings cooler and drier weather for most of the week. Breezy conditions and hazardous marine and surf conditions possible mid week as tropical cyclone Milton likely brushes the area. Cooler and drier weather then on tap late in the week. Weak high pressure will remain situated across the area through the near term forecast period.
457 AM PDT Sun Oct 6 2024 Quiet weather is expected through the middle of the week as high pressure builds into the Pacific Northwest.
High pressure will remain the dominant weather feature through late week bringing warm and mainly dry conditions.
High pressure will result in areas of patchy morning fog in valleys with mostly sunny afternoons and pleasant temperatures for the next several days.
Upper level ridging will keep us warm and dry through most of this week, with temperatures closer to what you would expect in early September instead of early October.
239 AM PDT Sun Oct 6 2024 Quiet weather is expected through the middle of the week as high pressure builds into the Pacific Northwest.
-Cooler temperatures (highs in the 70s) are expected on Sunday. With the upper ridge still working southeast over the CWA, winds going/continuing light as well as clear skies, thinking temps will drop further than previous forecast. A cold front continues to progress southward through the area this afternoon. Sun-Sun night: A cooler airmass. will foster much cooler (albeit near- average) temperatures.
952 AM CDT Sun Oct 6 2024 - Breezy and cooler conditions are expected today. The west to northwest winds will continue to be gusty until high pressure begins to build into the Great Lakes Region Monday. Patterson Issued 341 AM CDT Sun Oct 6 2024 Today and Tonight: Gusty westerly winds are expected today in the wake of a potent low pressure system. The low tracked across Ontario overnight and will continue to progress northeast today. There is a secondary cold front pushing into northwest WI early this morning, and this will give us an extra push of gusty winds in southern WI this afternoon. High pressure will wedge into the Upper Midwest later today and tonight. With a strong surface inversion and cooler air mass overhead, low temperatures should dip into the mid to upper 30s for inland areas.
532 AM MDT Sun Oct 6 2024 - High pressure will keep dry conditions in the forecast with near record-highs expected.
407 AM MDT Sun Oct 6 2024 Upper level ridging will keep us warm and dry through most of this week, with temperatures closer to what you would expect in early September instead of early October.
With the storm track remaining well north and a very weak southern branch split, broad high pressure will continue to dominate the desert southwest. A weak split will top off the ridge late in the new week, with high pressure slowly retreating southward. Ensemble mean height anomalies are still suggesting a weak low dirtying up the mean ridge position near our area days 6-10. Min RHs remain 5-15 percent for the lower elevations and low to mid 20s for the higher elevations.
-Cooler temperatures (highs in the 70s) are expected today. Sunday will be a bit cooler thanks to CAA behind yesterday's cold front as the ridge builds back over the area both aloft and near the surface. Brief gusts of 20- 25 mph will be possible this afternoon primarily west of the Colorado border and south of US-40 in Western Kansas Overnight lows will be in the low to mid 40s. With a warm front setting up along the Colorado border, winds behind the front will become northerly with gusts to 25 mph while those ahead of the front will have southerly to southwesterly winds gusting to ~20 mph. Given the low confidence conditions occur, we have held of for now on any fire weather related hazard products.
Isolated showers and some thunderstorms will be possible with best chances across the far southeast, expanding west across our far south-central and eventually our far southwest counties later this afternoon as a weak inverted trough gradually moves west across the North-Central Gulf of Mexico. 05 Previous short-term discussion: (Today through Monday) Central Alabama remains on the northern edge of weak mid level troughing and a moisture axis along the Gulf coast. Weak impulses within the trough and ripples in low level easterly flow have allowed for a few showers to develop this morning across southeast Central Alabama. A trough will move through the Great Lakes tomorrow, pushing a dry front into the area.
642 AM CDT Sun Oct 6 2024 - Slightly cooler today due to weak frontal passage - Well above average high temperatures and mostly dry conditions will continue through this week. (Today through Monday night) Cold front which is currently just entering the far NW Panhandles will be surging across most of the area through 18 UTC, but will put on the brakes just south of the area given the parent upper trough will move across the great Lakes region well NE of the area.
Another warm one is in store today with highs mostly in the lower 90s. 30 Previous Discussion: /Through Monday/ Water vapor satellite imagery currently indicates an impressive upper low moving east from Manitoba into Ontario, which is generating upper troughing across the Midwest and Great lakes region.
637 AM EDT Sun Oct 6 2024 Above normal temperatures and mainly dry weather are expected through Monday as high pressure dominates. A cold front should move through Monday night with a few showers possible before high pressure brings cooler and drier weather for most of the week. Breezy conditions and hazardous marine and surf conditions possible mid week as tropical cyclone Milton likely brushes the area. Cooler and drier weather then on tap late in the week. Weak high pressure will remain situated across the area through the near term forecast period.
541 AM CDT Sun Oct 6 2024 (Today through Monday afternoon) WV imagery this morning still shows a weakness in the upper ridge in the form of an inverted trough that is having little effect on West Texas and Southeast New Mexico other than keeping highs a bit cooler each day than they otherwise would be. That said, highs this afternoon should be very similar to yesterday's, if not a degree warmer at ~ 7-9 F above normal. A cold front will approach the area but, like the last one, looks weak.
838 AM MDT Sun Oct 6 2024 Upper level ridging will keep us warm and dry through most of this week, with temperatures closer to what you would expect in early September instead of early October.
919 AM CDT Sun Oct 6 2024 - Breezy and very dry conditions will develop behind a cold front this afternoon, bringing elevated fire danger to areas north of Interstate 70 where there is a 20-50% joint probability for gusts greater than 25 mph and RH values less than 25 percent.
505 AM CDT Sun Oct 6 2024 - Breezy and very dry conditions will develop behind a cold front this afternoon, bringing elevated fire danger to areas north of Interstate 70 where there is a 20-50% joint probability for gusts greater than 25 mph and RH values less than 25 percent.
A cold front approaches tonight and will cross through Monday morning. High pressure presently sits just to our north, providing light winds and clear skies and bringing us our coolest night in nearly a month. Some patchy fog early this morning is mostly confined to the Delmarva where the low levels are a bit more moist, but otherwise, generally clear conditions should prevail today. The cold front currently crossing the Upper Midwest and western Great Lakes will enter our region tonight and clear us Monday morning.
Weak ridging aloft and high pressure over the area will maintain quiet weather across the region today. /19/ Today and tonight: Currently, satellite and water vapor imagery depict dry conditions across the Lower Mississippi Valley region as we remain on the western side of a low level ridge. This low level ridging will increase N/NW flow into our area and continue to promote dry conditions. Cloud cover will remain minimal, with the greatest chance of isolated to scattered cloud cover being in the Pine Belt region, where the greatest moisture exists NW of the ridge. Tonight, dry conditions are expected to prevail with lows in the lower 60s. Patchy fog will be possible in the east as weak moisture advection may occur along the ridge axis.
Upper level ridging will remain over the area. (Monday night through next Sunday) Upper level ridging will result in above normal temperatures and dry conditions across West Central Texas through this week.
For tonight, expect mostly clear skies with lows in the upper 60s to low 70s inland and in the low to mid 70s along the coast. Sunny skies and highs in the low to mid 90s are on tap for Monday.
The big and continue weather story will be the broad high pressure over the region through the week. Temperatures will be on the warmer side through the week, but as the days get shorter, the overall temperatures will come down a few degrees.