Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
The highest chances for showers/storms this morning (50-70%) will be across north central Kansas. Highs this afternoon will range from the mid 70s across south central Nebraska to the low 80s across north central Kansas. Wednesday will be warmer, with highs climbing into the 80s. Scattered thunderstorm development is possible (15-45%) Wednesday evening for eastern portions of the area, along the cold front of a departing low. Additional thunderstorm development is possible (30-45%) across northern/western portions of the area, ahead of a secondary cold front. Thunderstorm chances (20-50%) continue overnight as the secondary cold front moves across the area.
Upper troughing over the region will promote onshore flow and cooler temperatures today.
Otherwise, high pressure will persist through Wednesday night offering dry weather. Mid level ridge axis over the MS Valley to nudge a little east Wednesday offering height/thickness rises. High temperatures to range from the lower 80s northwest to the upper 80s southeast. Aloft, troughing will be in place over the northeastern coast, with a somewhat-muted area of ridging beginning to build into the Ohio Valley from the southwest.
As we warm up and mix out today, we still won't see much in the way of available energy with a rather "skinny" SBCAPE profile thanks to the aforementioned warmer thermal profile aloft. Subtle weakness (albeit still considered ridge dominant) synoptic pattern will aid in suppression, but could still see scattered showers/few storms bubble up, especially collocated with deeper surface moisture across SE LA and the Atchafalaya Basin - where PoPs were bumped up a tad more today.
(Today and tonight) Mostly clear skies across the area this morning in the wake of progressive upper level trough. High temperatures today will generally be a few degrees warmer than yesterday, particularly in the interface between 'marine' and 'inland' areas, such as the Bay shoreline and the areas within a few miles of the coast. Patchy stratus looks to return again tonight, but will be limited due to another weak, progressive upper-level trough approaching.
The monsoon high has continued to shift off to the east as a trough moves into the Pac NW. Storm motion will also increase as this trough approaches, with today's storms moving toward the east-northeast around 10-15 mph, lessening the overall threat of excessive rainfall in any one location.
551 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 (Today and tonight) The upper-level ridge will sit over our area for much of the day before sliding more to the east this evening and overnight. Temperatures tonight will remain on the warmer side, thanks to the low level jet keeping winds a tad higher, limiting radiational cooling.
550 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 (Today through Wednesday) An inverted trough currently over the Coastal Plains moves over our area to the Rio Grande today, then lingers there on Wednesday while the Subtropical Ridge axis remains to our northeast. Forcing by heating, trough, and seabreeze should generate isolated showers and thunderstorms each afternoon mainly near the Coastal Plains.
An Atlantic ridge axis stretching west across the Florida Peninsula will support gentle to moderate easterly breezes through Wednesday.
* Areas of low pressure passing through the Pacific Northwest bring typical gusty afternoon winds, cooler temperatures and some showers near the OR Border the rest of the week. Upper level troughing persists for several days with multiple waves passing through the PacNW. Slightly stronger winds are likely again this weekend as the surface pressure gradient tightens with the approach of the next upper low. The cooler airmass advected into the region means that we will have cooler temperatures this week too. Afternoon highs will be generally in the mid-80s to low-90s in the valleys, 70s in the Sierra valleys, and 60s in the higher elevations of area mountains. Overnight lows in Sierra valley communities will be in the mid 30s with some isolated locations close to freezing due to clear and dry nights with light winds.
609 AM EDT Tue Aug 13 2024 An upper level trof will exit across the Maritimes today.
(Rest of Today) Mostly sunny and very warm conditions are forecast again today as we remain under the influence of the upper high pressure axis that is centered over the ArkLaTex. Other than a few to scattered decks Cu in the afternoon, mostly sunny conditions will allow temperatures to rise into the lower 90s -- with a few mid 90s possible across northern Alabama. Dewpoints will be a hare higher today, but slightly warmer temperatures will also knock our RH values into the 40-45 percent range again. Definitely warmer, but certainly not the worst that mid-August can offer as far as heat/humidity impacts are concerned.
701 AM EDT Tue Aug 13 2024 (Today through Wednesday) South Florida will remain entrenched between two areas of high pressure (one over the western Atlantic, one over the Gulf of Mexico) through the short term as ridging continues to build aloft. Temperatures will continue to rise into the low to mid 90s across much of the region each afternoon.
30 Previous Discussion: /Through Wednesday/ Satellite imagery reveals anticyclonic flow across North Texas and the Southern Plains associated with a mid level ridge positioned overhead. Active weather on the northern periphery of the ridge will remain well north of the region, keeping North and Central Texas hot and rain-free through at least midweek. Triple digit highs and heat indices of 105+ will be common, warranting a Heat Advisory for all but the Colorado River counties (where slightly cooler and drier air will be). A gulf breeze might bring some minor relief to the southeast counties each afternoon, but any convection associated with it will be shut down by the ridge prior to reaching any of the Central Texas zones.
Temperatures today are expected to be 5 to 10 degrees cooler compared to yesterday. A weak ridge of high pressure slides over the Northern Rockies on Wednesday allowing for a decrease in the potential for convection.
Still expecting high pressure to keep things on the dry side for the time being. Large area of strong high pressure remains centered over the Upper providing clear skies and light/calm winds. Expect another warm mid August day across our Northwoods with afternoon highs mainly in the lower 80s. PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: Broad pattern across the CONUS has departing troughing over the eastern US, southern stream ridge axis stretching from the Lower MS Valley up through the western Plains into Canada. Warmer yesterday with temps much closer to normal as 850mb temps rose above 10C again.
Today through Wednesday night A trough of low pressure is currently situated over the Pacific NW, while a ridge high pressure is over the southern U. By Wednesday, another low pressure system will approach the Pacific NW coast and moving eastward.
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: An upper ridge overhead will allow for a hot day across the area today before an upper trough from western Canada moves in and brings an increased chance of thunderstorms late in the day. The remainder of the week will features a rebounding upper ridge with near normal temperatures.
With dewpoint temperatures hovering in the low/mid 70s we could see heat indices around 105 in parts of south central Kansas and a heat advisory will be issued for a part of south central Kansas this afternoon. The mid/upper ridge is progged to amplify Fri-Mon resulting in mostly dry weather conditions and rising temperatures once again. With increasing influence from the ridge of high pressure to our south, VFR is expected to prevail for most locations by mid-afternoon or sooner.
631 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 (Today through Wednesday) Key Messages: - Elevated Heat Indices for Today and Tomorrow - Mostly rain-free conditions The mid-level ridge remains in place over Northern and Central Texas with its influence affecting Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley through the short term forecast. Maximum heat indices for this afternoon are expected to be around 111, but the current train of thought is that the heat indices will not be this high for very long. As for the actual temperatures, the high temperatures for today and tomorrow are expected to be mostly in the triple digits with areas along the coast in the upper 90s. However, the low temperatures for tonight are expected to be generally in the 70s with a few places getting into the low 80s.
Temperatures are on the warm side today and tomorrow with highs in the low to mid 90s. Td's with NW flow will be in the low 60s which will continue to keep a lid on the heat index. Northwest flow and generally dry upper levels thanks to overhead high pressure will ultimately restrict and afternoon convection through the short term.
With a longwave trough passing through the Pacific Northwest, anticipate shear to be higher as well, resulting in greater chances for severe thunderstorms than the past couple of days.
Persistent, high pressure will center over the ArkLaMiss region on Wednesday, leading to another day of high temps in the upper 90s to near 100 degrees across the area.
1226 PM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 (Today through Wednesday Night) Ridging will continue to dominate area wx with hot & humid conditions prevailing.
1205 PM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 (Today and tonight) The upper-level ridge will sit over our area for much of the day before sliding more to the east this evening and overnight. Temperatures tonight will remain on the warmer side, thanks to the low level jet keeping winds a tad higher, limiting radiational cooling.
(Rest of today through Wednesday) The overall synoptic scenario for the short term hasn't changed much with a high pressure system over the central Atlantic b ringing generally weak to moderate SW flow across SoFlo, while another high pressure cell persists over most of the GOMEX. Meanwhile, models also show some drier air filtering into the area as a mid level ridge establishes. In terms of temperatures, the hot trend continues with afternoon highs in the low-mid 90s across much of SoFlo, along with abundant low level moisture remaining in place.
1231 PM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 (Today through Wednesday) An inverted trough currently over the Coastal Plains moves over our area to the Rio Grande today, then lingers there on Wednesday while the Subtropical Ridge axis remains to our northeast. Forcing by heating, trough, and seabreeze should generate isolated showers and thunderstorms each afternoon mainly near the Coastal Plains.
A trough of low pressure is moving into Northern California with a zonal flow aloft over our forecast area.
After a few showers Wednesday, a gradual drying trend will begin as high pressure builds in. Cooler, drier air should lead to rain-free end of the week before the high shifts offshore this weekend.
With dewpoint temperatures hovering in the low/mid 70s we could see heat indices around 105 in parts of south central Kansas and a heat advisory will be issued for a part of south central Kansas this afternoon. The mid/upper ridge is progged to amplify Fri-Mon resulting in mostly dry weather conditions and rising temperatures once again. While generally VFR conditions expected thru the forecast valid period, a window for MVFR cigs will exist tonight along a warm front as it lifts northward across central Kansas.
(This evening through Wednesday night) Upper ridging centered near the Texas-Oklahoma border, extending northward through the Plains States, with troughing over the Pacific Northwest and Appalachians. While precipitable water values were generally near 2 inches this morning, the center of the ridging is expected to shift a bit eastward to near Shreveport tomorrow.
150 PM EDT Tue Aug 13 2024 - Becoming Partly Cloudy Today; Warmer.
Water vapor imagery depicts broad upper-level ridging across the Plains. Heavy Rain and Severe Thunderstorm Potential Tuesday Night into Wednesday Morning: The aforementioned upper-level ridge will continue to shift east through the Plains today. At the surface, a warm front will lift north into central Kansas. Heat and Storms Wednesday: As the aforementioned warm front continues to lift north, warm, humid air will expand into the region. High temperatures in the low to mid 90s and dew points in the mid 70s would support a corridor of heat index values in the 100-105+ degree range, generally south of I-70 and along I-49.
1234 PM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 (Today through Wednesday night) Currently the FA is sitting under a mid to upper level ridge with storms passing to the north in KS riding this ridge.
Midlevel ridging over the region remains the dominant weather driver for the short term period.
This high will continue to bring fair conditions through mid-week.
We remain in a northwest flow pattern with troughing to our northeast and an upper level ridge axis to west-northwest. Tomorrow, mostly dry weather continues as high pressure shifts further east and the ridge becomes centered over the eastern U.
Much of Wednesday will be similar as today, with highs generally a couple degrees warmer. An upper trough will approach from the west on Wednesday evening.
1147 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 (Today through Wednesday) Key Messages: - Elevated Heat Indices for Today and Tomorrow - Mostly rain-free conditions The mid-level ridge remains in place over Northern and Central Texas with its influence affecting Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley through the short term forecast. Maximum heat indices for this afternoon are expected to be around 111, but the current train of thought is that the heat indices will not be this high for very long. As for the actual temperatures, the high temperatures for today and tomorrow are expected to be mostly in the triple digits with areas along the coast in the upper 90s. However, the low temperatures for tonight are expected to be generally in the 70s with a few places getting into the low 80s.
The highest risk is from south central North Dakota to the James River Valley. High pressure over the Great Lakes Region will help advect Gulf Stream moisture into the Dakotas on Wednesday, with mixed layer dewpoints likely in excess of 60 degrees.
Low pressure currently whirling its way across central Idaho is the driving force for developing shower and thunderstorm activity across central Idaho and southwest Montana. Showers and storms will extend north and east through this evening as the low shuffles its way through the region.
The climatological high pressure and associated ridge axis in the North Atlantic weakly extends westward toward South Florida. In addition, owed to the light steering flow, a broken cumulus cloud line has been waxing and waning across the Lower Keys, where a waterspout was earlier observed between Cudjoe and Sugarloaf Keys. For tonight, meteorological reasoning suggests a residual boundary should remain in the vicinity of the Lower Keys.
For Wednesday and Wednesday night, the flow across northern and central Nevada will remain mainly west to east as the region sits between upper ridging to the south and an upper trough off the coast of the western United States. 50 inches with the highest values seen over the eastern border with Utah. Afternoon highs will be around normal with readings in the 80s, though some central locales could see the low 90s. By the night, the aforementioned upper trough will shift east and into Oregon.
Temperatures are on track to be a few degrees warmer today and tomorrow, but remain approximately 2 to 10 degrees below normal.
Expanding mid-level ridge centered over the ArkLaTex will be the predominant feature thru tomorrow.
(This evening through Wednesday) A high pressure ridge will continue to sit across the region through the remainder of today and tomorrow. Our normal high temperature for this time of year is right around 98 degrees, so we are a few degrees warmer than normal. (Wednesday night through next Tuesday) A strong upper level ridge is currently centered over northern TX and southern OK.
Across the northwestern combined Panhandles, a mid level trough will move east into this after later in the afternoon and evening hours. Further to the east, along a line from Canyon to Beaver, a notable H850-700 theta-e gradient will set up, and with orthogonal shear with the aforementioned H500 trough moving into the NW Panhandles, lift out ahead will help to potentially develop thunderstorms along this gradient. High temperatures tomorrow will range from the lower 90s to the 100-103 degree range.
Wednesday is forecast to be a few degrees cooler behind a weak cold front with high temperatures in the 80s for most.
Temperatures as of 3 PM are in the low to mid 90s with heat indices generally ranging from 100-106 degrees. Hot and muggy conditions will continue this afternoon, with afternoon highs in the low to mid 90s, with peak heat indices of 104-107 degrees Any lingering showers and storms this evening will dissipate or move out of the local area by midnight.
Showers and storms will are possible again across northeast KS tonight into Wednesday morning as a warm front pushes northward across the area and another mid-level wave moves overhead. Sporadic rain chances remain later in the week as we are favored to remain on the northern/eastern periphery of an upper-level ridge and in the neighborhood of passing upper-level waves. A return to MVFR/IFR conditions appears likely later tonight as a warm front lifts northward across the area.
The upper-level trough will move to the east, allowing room for a upper- level ridge to build over our area from the high pressure system in the southwest.
Drier air moves into the region mid to late week allowing for slightly cooler and drier conditions. As a weak cold front approaches the Southeast moisture returns to the region for the weekend. High temperatures this afternoon will range from the mid 80s along the NC border to the low 90s in the CSRA. An upper trough is also expected to dig a but more and slide eastward through the short term period. A combination of these factors is expected to lead drier air and cooler temperatures.
(Tonight through Wednesday night) Key Messages: - Low to medium chances for showers and thunderstorms on Wednesday across the Victoria Crossroads - Moderate to major risk of heat-related impacts through the week Mid to upper level ridging will continue to build into the region tonight through tomorrow night, promoting above normal temperatures.
Upper-level ridging remains in place across the region, with the axis centered over the Florida peninsula. The upper-level looks to amplify over the next couple days, however, with a trough axis over the NE. In response, this looks to allow a cold front to propagate across the Florida peninsula.
Despite this high pressure remains in control at the surface. Temperatures this afternoon will range in the low to mid 70s with overnight lows in the 50s. Temperatures range slightly warmer tomorrow with highs in the mid 70s to low 80s and lows in the mid 50s to low 60s.
WV imagery indicates weak ridging aloft transioning east through the Central Plains. Near the surface, a broad area of high pressure is drifting east across the Upper Midwest. Drier conditions in general are expected early in the period as upper level ridging continues to push off to the east out of the Central Plains, giving way to a southwest flow aloft across the Western High Plains. Meanwhile, pooling moisture ahead of the trough axis will support increased instability as mid-level lapse rates steepen from max daytime heating. As a result, diurnally driven isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development is expected in a corridor of increased low level convergence associated with the aforementioned trough axis.
After today, the upper level high will move east through the end of the week, which should provide us with a few down days before the monsoon ramps up again this coming weekend.
A weak trough of low pressure over the Pacific Northwest will continue to press against a stubborn high pressure ridge over Texas for what looks like forever.
125 PM MDT Tue Aug 13 2024 Afternoon satellite imagery shows an upper level trough centered along the Idaho/Oregon border. With increased cloud cover throughout the region, temperatures are running on the cooler side of normal and this will likely be the case once again on Wednesday with the trough still just north of the region.
(This evening through Wednesday) A high pressure ridge will continue to sit across the region through the remainder of today and tomorrow. Our normal high temperature for this time of year is right around 98 degrees, so we are a few degrees warmer than normal.
Overnight lows continue to trend warm and humid from the mid to upper 70s for most locations to the low 80s along the Rio Grande. The GOES water vapor satellite imagery indicates that an inverted trough has now advanced to near the Rio Grande. The inverted trough will persist west of the Rio Grande through the short term period across interior North-Central Mexico. The southeasterly mid-level flow in-between the inverted trough and the ridge centered over the Arklatex, could help the sea breeze to perhaps bring an isolated shower or storm into our coastal plain counties this afternoon and again Wednesday afternoon.
604 PM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 (This evening through Wednesday) A high pressure ridge will continue to sit across the region through the remainder of today and tomorrow. Our normal high temperature for this time of year is right around 98 degrees, so we are a few degrees warmer than normal. (Wednesday night through next Tuesday) A strong upper level ridge is currently centered over northern TX and southern OK.
This was accounted for in the latest hi-res guidance, so hourly temperatures were updated to better reflect slightly warmer conditions.
616 PM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 (This evening through Wednesday Night) Mid to upper level ridging remains in control over our region, keeping hot and humid conditions. Despite the influence of the high pressure (subsidence), a plume of low level moisture continues to filter in from the Gulf. With the region positioned on the southeastern edge of high pressure, east to southerly sfc winds will continue to bring a warmer and more Gulf humid airmass into the region.
Showers and storms will are possible again across northeast KS tonight into Wednesday morning as a warm front pushes northward across the area and another mid-level wave moves overhead. Sporadic rain chances remain later in the week as we are favored to remain on the northern/eastern periphery of an upper-level ridge and in the neighborhood of passing upper-level waves. Deeper mixing during the mid morning hours should scatter out the lower ceiling stratus.
Drier air is already moving into western Yavapai and Coconino Counties as a trough of low pressure is moving through the Pacific Northwest and an area of high pressure off the California coast is moving eastward. This pattern will continue to move dry air over Arizona as the high slowly moves eastward across our state. High temperatures will climb to 5 to 15 degrees above average for this time of the year as the high pressure transects out state.
(This evening through Wednesday Night) Mid to upper level ridging remains in control over our region, keeping hot and humid conditions. Despite the influence of the high pressure (subsidence), a plume of low level moisture continues to filter in from the Gulf. With the region positioned on the southeastern edge of high pressure, east to southerly sfc winds will continue to bring a warmer and more Gulf humid airmass into the region.
645 PM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 (Tonight through Wednesday night) Key Messages: - Low to medium chances for showers and thunderstorms on Wednesday across the Victoria Crossroads - Moderate to major risk of heat-related impacts through the week Mid to upper level ridging will continue to build into the region tonight through tomorrow night, promoting above normal temperatures.
Lows tonight will be in the lower 70s in the southwest counties, but could drop as low as the mid 60s in the far east and northeast with a drier northeasterly flow at the surface. For now, have left highs in the lower 90s across the northern half of based on the uncertainty, with mid to upper 90s remaining across the far south.