Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
An upper level trough tracking through the Great Lakes should be the main driver of any rain showers. Widespread shower and thunderstorm activity was ongoing along the trough axis this afternoon from Arkansas up through the Ohio River Valley. As the axis of the trough progress eastward tonight it should wash out, reducing available lift and subsequently the intensity of any rainfall by the time it reaches north Georgia. Fog formation is contingent on moisture return this afternoon via light southerly winds and limited mid and high level cloud cover ahead of the approaching trough axis.
545 PM CST Mon Dec 16 2024 (Tonight) A weakening cold front is approaching the area later today and into the evening.
High pressure surface and aloft remains over the Florida peninsula producing above normal temperatures. Surface ridging coupled with upper level ridging will continue to keep conditions warm and humid today and tomorrow.
Water on roads could freeze from temperatures reaching below freezing overnight.
509 PM CST Mon Dec 16 2024 Updated at 446 PM CST Mon Dec 16 2024 - Next cold front arrives Tuesday night with breezy north winds expected and showers/thunderstorms possible. (Rest of today and tonight) North winds diminish as high pressure moves in behind the departing cold front this evening before transitioning to the south early Tuesday morning. Warmer overnight lows (40's) are expected over SE Oklahoma with the denser cloud-cover.
Dry conditions return Tuesday with the next system (This evening through Tuesday) Light rain is currently moving through the region, with a weak cold front coming through the East Bay and South Bay into Santa Cruz County, with scattered showers behind the main band as far north as the North Bay. High temperatures range from the middle to upper 50s in the Bay Area valleys, into the lower 60s for the Salinas Valley and the upper 40s to lower 50s in the higher elevations.
Southerly winds are increasing, but are expected to remain below Advisory level, apart from some of the higher peaks. High pressure ridging will generally build in this week, brining warmer daytime temperatures.
The average temperature for this time of year is in the low 40s. With an active jet stream towards the north, the Southwest remains dry thanks to strong high pressure towards the south keeping the storm track across the northern states. Surface winds begin to transition to the north-northeast on Tuesday as a high pressure ridge amplifies across the West.
639 PM EST Mon Dec 16 2024 High pressure off to the northeast will push farther offshore over the next couple days as a weak coastal trough remains off the Carolina coast.
- Breezy winds tonight and Tuesday - Dry for at least the next 7 days 19Z upper air and surface analysis shows a departing clipper system in Minnesota an Iowa extending a weak trough through western Kansas and an approaching dampened ridge in the Rockies. These winds should mix the air enough that lows will fall into the lower 30s. Tuesday a quick moving trough will move into the northern plains by late afternoon and this will extend a weak frontal boundary into southwest Kansas by 21z. I trended warmer with NBM75 MaxT on Tuesday which would put us in the upper 50s and around 60 in the Red Hills. Periodic clipper systems in the northern plains will introduce cold fronts but with the lack of arctic air we should only see a few degree cool down with the frontal passage.
540 PM CST Mon Dec 16 2024 (This evening through Tuesday Night) At 20z, a cold front was still northwest of the area across North Central Texas, into Southern Oklahoma, Northwest Arkansas, and Southern Missouri. This should keep the highest rain chances mainly north of a line from Tyler TX to El Dorado AR. A much stronger upper trough will begin to dive southeast through the Plains, which will drive a stronger cold front towards the area.
948 PM EST Mon Dec 16 2024 The threat for showers will end tonight behind a cold front, which will give way to dry weather on Tuesday.
439 PM MST Mon Dec 16 2024 - 5 to 10 F warmer tomorrow.
727 PM EST Mon Dec 16 2024 High pressure will remain over the area through Tuesday. A weakening coastal trough will bring isolated showers to the Outer Banks through Tuesday.
118 AM EST Tue Dec 17 2024 Chance of showers this morning as a weak cold front crosses, then dry for rest of the day. A weak cold front will push across the region this morning, providing a chance of showers along and in advance of the front. A high pressure system will build in behind the front today, providing dry weather and clearing skies. Despite the cold front, afternoon temperatures will be a bit above normal for this time of year with readings generally in the 50s outside of the higher mountain terrain.
However, as low level southwesterly flow increases at 9-8h this afternoon in the lower MS into the TN valley, a few more showers and perhaps a couple of thunderstorms will redevelop, mainly over northwest AL. High temperatures will only be a few degrees warmer than current readings, hitting the lower to middle 60s.
Lastly, elevated moisture will result in low temperatures merely dipping into the lower to mid 50s later tonight. (Tuesday through Wednesday night) The cold front that is moving across the area will eventually become stationary as upper level support becomes insufficient. On Wednesday, a deeper upper level long wave trough will dive southeastward and will tend to support greater baroclinicity just ahead of the wave. This will result in another cold front Wednesday afternoon that will bring in much cooler weather and should rid the area of the regime we have been in.
Fog is possible again tonight as we will still be under the influence of high pressure and light/calm winds are expected and a stratus deck filling in overnight.
The "cold front" if we can even call it cold, is expected to stall over southern Tennessee today. Tonight, southwesterly flow increases ahead of the next trough, and kicks the front back to the north as a warm front, setting the stage for Wednesday.
1039 PM MST Mon Dec 16 2024 Updated at 1026 PM MST Mon Dec 16 2024 - Cold front with cooler temperatures and breezy winds arrives on Wednesday. For Tuesday, temperatures will be even warmer with high temperatures in the middle to upper 60s across the desert lowlands. This decently strong Canadian high will push a cold front across the High Plains during the Tuesday evening and overnight timeframe. Remainder of the period looks quiet as high pressure settles in across the Desert Southwest. Min RH values on Tuesday will range between 10-15% areawide, except for the high terrain of the Sacs where Min RHs will be between 16-25%. The associated cold front will drop south across the High Plains, eventually pushing through the forecast area during the first half of Wednesday.
Sarment (This evening through Tuesday) Light rain is currently moving through the region, with a weak cold front coming through the East Bay and South Bay into Santa Cruz County, with scattered showers behind the main band as far north as the North Bay. High temperatures range from the middle to upper 50s in the Bay Area valleys, into the lower 60s for the Salinas Valley and the upper 40s to lower 50s in the higher elevations.
340 AM EST Tue Dec 17 2024 - Light snow accumulation Wednesday morning - Accumulating snow and slick roads favored late Thu to early Fri - Cold Weekend - Light snow accumulation Wednesday morning Of the two Clipper-style troughs to affect us through the workweek, late tonight to Wednesday morning is likely to be more modest with snow amounts and impacts.
While temperatures will vary through the week due a couple primary cold fronts entering the region, mostly above normal temperatures and mainly dry conditions still look to highlight the week overall. Today, highs range in the low to perhaps middle 50s due to a southerly breeze in place but clouds overhead should make it difficult to warm to the upper 50s. A modified cold front works through tonight briefly allowing temperatures to drop back to near normal into the 40s for highs and 20s for lows on Wednesday as high pressure expands into the region and quickly slides east.
- Above normal temperatures through mid-week, with some locales reaching the lower 80s. Much cooler temperatures remain on the horizon by the weekend. Volusia County has been the primary target of the these impacts due the development of a weak coastal trough or MCV. Upper level ridge remains over the Eastern Seaboard persists through early on Tuesday before it starts sliding east.
1030 PM EST Mon Dec 16 2024 High pressure will remain over the area through Tuesday. A weakening coastal trough will bring isolated showers to the Outer Banks through Tuesday. A strong cold front will then move through late Wednesday night with colder and drier high pressure building in to the Southeast by late this week. Quiet weather continues as high pressure remains over the area.
1212 AM EST Tue Dec 17 2024 (Through Tuesday Night) We remain under the influence of high pressure through Tuesday night, leading to pleasant weather conditions as high temps reach the mid to upper 70s.
1231 AM CST Tue Dec 17 2024 (This evening through Wednesday) A cold front is slowly pushing its way thru the state this afternoon, with a band of showers and thunderstorms extending from Mena, thru Russellville, and onwards toward Jonesboro. Morning soundings indicated elevated CAPE values of up to 1000 j/kg along and ahead of the boundary, but there was a considerable amount of CIN in the lower layers. Things will eventually clear out behind the front, but another reinforcing front and upper trof will be approaching the area on Wednesday.
Updated at 235 AM CST Tue Dec 17 2024 - Above normal temps ahead of a stronger cold front that moves through Wednesday. - Thunderstorm chances increase again Tuesday evening/night ahead of the next cold front.
A weak cold front to the north is forecast to move into the northern Hill Country and southern Edwards Plateau later tonight. The cold front won't make much farther progress south, stalling then lifting back north on Tuesday. Isolated to scattered showers are indicated to develop along the cold front. Fog is expected to develop late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning as dew points remain high and low level flow weakens ahead of an approaching cold front to the north.
Updated at 223 AM CST Tue Dec 17 2024 - A cold front will bring strong northeasterly winds through Guadalupe Pass late tonight through Wednesday morning, where a High Wind Watch is in effect. - Cooler temperatures and gusty northeast winds are to be expected for all on Wednesday.
Across the CONUS, a cold front has moved into Central Texas, the mid Mississippi Valley, and the upper Great Lakes. High pressure is over the SE US coast with the local area between these systems which is holding the aforementioned onshore flow in place. The associated short wave will pass well north of the local region this evening and tonight allowing the cold front to stall from roughly Austin to Texarkana. This disturbance will quickly push across TX and LA Wed afternoon with a cold front passing across the local region. 17 A warm and humid airmass will continue to override cooler coastal waters through early Wednesday. A cold front is expected to move through the coastal waters late Wednesday. Offshore flow will develop and strengthen in the wake of the cold front.
------------------------------------------------------------------- Rain will be ending late tonight as a cold front crosses the region. Expect to see lots of sun for at least the southern half of the region as the lower clouds will be shunted northward with the colder air aloft.
As a result, slightly cooler highs around 50F are expected across the northern zones. We will see cooler highs tomorrow in the wake of the front.
1041 PM CST Mon Dec 16 2024 Updated at 1011 PM CST Mon Dec 16 2024 - Next cold front arrives Tuesday night with breezy north winds expected and showers/thunderstorms possible. (Rest of today and tonight) North winds diminish as high pressure moves in behind the departing cold front this evening before transitioning to the south early Tuesday morning. Warmer overnight lows (40's) are expected over SE Oklahoma with the denser cloud-cover. Thompson (Tuesday through Wednesday night) An upper trough that is currently moving into the Pacific northwest region will track quickly ESE-ward tonight and the associated vorticity maxima will reach Wyoming by tomorrow morning. The aforementioned upper trough passes over the central plains and pushes a cold front through the area on Tuesday night with a few mid/high-level clouds moving in from the northwest.
1136 PM CST Mon Dec 16 2024 (This evening through Tuesday night) Upper ridging currently along the East Coast and over the Intermountain West. Troughing extended from the western Great Lakes to near El Paso. At the surface, it was pretty much a repeat of the upper pattern with high pressure along the East Coast. Low pressure over western Ontario had a frontal boundary southward into Missouri, then southwest to west Texas.
1036 PM EST Mon Dec 16 2024 High pressure off to the northeast will push farther offshore over the next couple days as a weak coastal trough remains off the Carolina coast.
1254 AM EST Tue Dec 17 2024 Evening update to mainly keep elevated PoPs through the rest of the evening, as many of the high resolution models are struggling with how far east the precipitation will maintain headed towards the southern Appalachians. A cold front is currently approaching from the northwest and will move into our area overnight. Near record high-minimum temperatures are expected tonight with temps in the low to mid 50s.
1234 AM EST Tue Dec 17 2024 High pressure off to the northeast will push farther offshore over the next couple days as a weak coastal trough remains off the Carolina coast.
A little more of a bump in temperatures will likely come from compressional warming ahead of a cold front that will move southward down the central High Plains this morning and into the Panhandle this afternoon. The cold front will sweep quickly southward through the forecast this evening, exiting the southeast corner of the forecast area early morning hours tonight.
As the trough shifts eastward by early afternoon, northwest flow starts to push into the CWA that will start to diminish snowfall significantly south to north with lingering flurries to little accumulation into the overnight hours through Wednesday morning. As this main trough pivots east, the PFJ will migrate back northward into Montana with minor mid level troughs to push across northern sections of the CWA. As a result, upper level ridging with ample convergence aloft will build in from the southwest becoming more entranced through the area by week's end.
Open valleys, like the Snake Plain have seen snow change over to rain as snow levels push 4-4500 feet and temperatures have warmed above freezing. Additional accumulations will be less than 2" and focused over the higher peaks of e-central Oregon and w-central Idaho mtns. With warmer air beginning to move in aloft, expect lower valleys to start setting up under an inversion, which will limit warming.
253 AM EST Tue Dec 17 2024 A cold front will sweep eastward early today. Brief high pressure follows later today into tonight before another low pressure system impacts the area Wednesday.
Updated at 219 AM CST Tue Dec 17 2024 - Next cold front arrives Tuesday night with breezy north winds expected and showers/thunderstorms possible. A stronger cold front will make a push late this evening, and will continue through the overnight hours.
1032 PM MST Mon Dec 16 2024 - 5 to 10 F warmer tomorrow.
Tuesday night, high pressure builds back into the region for a short time before the cold front moves into the region Wednesday.
607 AM CST Tue Dec 17 2024 Updated at 607 AM CST Tue Dec 17 2024 - Next cold front arrives tonight with breezy north winds expected and showers/thunderstorms possible. A stronger cold front will make a push late this evening, and will continue through the overnight hours.
Expect to see lots of sun for at least the southern half of the region as the lower clouds will be shunted northward with the colder air aloft.
This will drive a cold front south over the area late today and tonight. More seasonable temperatures are expected across the area on Wednesday as high pressure settles over the area bringing light winds as we move through the day. Afternoon highs are expected to top out in the low to mid 40s for most areas.
Flow aloft will slowly back with time as an upper-level trough begins to advance toward the Mississippi Valley later tonight.
With flow following the weekend systems being mostly zonal right now before transitioning into a ridge, a warming trend will begin to be observed throughout the forecast area.
(Today and tonight) Temperatures early this morning are much cooler behind yesterday's cold front, with temperatures around 10 to 20 degrees cooler than yesterday morning.
Then in the afternoon the warm front will begin to increase precipitation over the Cascades and the eastern Cascade slopes that then spreads eastward across the rest of the forecast area. The warm front will also increase southerly winds across the forecast area overnight through Wednesday morning resulting in some breezy to locally windy conditions and warmer overnight low temperatures. There will be a brief break from the precipitation overnight before a cold front sweeps across the forecast area on Wednesday with some more precipitation mainly as rain in the lower elevations and rain changing to snow in the mountains. This will be followed by a build ridge Wednesday night.
Warm weather and thunderstorms, some potentially severe, continue today ahead of a cold front that will pass tonight through Wednesday.
A zonal flow looks to stay in place aloft through today, with high pressure gradually building through the rest of the week.
Otherwise, expected additional showers this afternoon into tonight mainly along and north of the Highway 82 corridor.
Continued WAA will result in warmer than average temperatures today. With the front passing earlier in the day, Brazos Valley and Piney Woods will observe slightly cooler temperatures as highs drop into the 60s. If the FROPA moves through faster than anticipated, temperatures for tomorrow could be a little cooler than what is currently forecast.
619 AM EST Tue Dec 17 2024 - Light snow accumulation Wednesday morning - Accumulating snow and slick roads favored late Thu to early Fri - Cold Weekend - Light snow accumulation Wednesday morning Of the two Clipper-style troughs to affect us through the workweek, late tonight to Wednesday morning is likely to be more modest with snow amounts and impacts.
Gusty north winds will develop along the Lower Colorado River Valley this evening into Wednesday.
- High pressure then builds in bringing a return to quiet weather and a warming trend for the latter half of the week. While moisture isn't all that impressive, enough moisture will get worked on by the jet and midlevel trough to bring accumulating snows to the northern mountains. A cold start to the day is expected Wednesday as high pressure builds in and plenty of clear skies overnight allows for some strong radiational cooling. An upper-level ridge slowly builds in late this week into the weekend leading to unseasonably warm conditions (10-15 degrees above normal) for most locations across the forecast area.
- Dry weather with much warmer than normal temperatures can be expected Wednesday through next Tuesday. The flow aloft is nearly due west, with ridgetop/cross-barrier flow near 50kt. Orographic snow showers are starting to develop this morning and will become more widespread as the low-levels quickly moisten. Temperatures should warm up into the upper 40s to low 50s, but a cold front will limit daytime heating today. There should be widespread, gusty northwesterly winds across the lower elevations by late morning or early afternoon. Much of this week and forthcoming weekend will feature ridging aloft, warmer airmass in place, and virtually zero moisture to tap into.
Stronger high pressure building over the Interior West during the latter half of the workweek will push afternoon highs to near 80 degrees for some of the typically warmer lower desert locations such as the Greater Phoenix Area. The current zonal westerly dry flow across the region is supporting high temperatures 5-10 degrees above normal, or in the low to mid 70s, but even warmer temperatures are on the horizon. An unseasonably strong high pressure ridge is set to build over much of the Western U.
523 AM CST Tue Dec 17 2024 Updated at 505 AM CST Tue Dec 17 2024 - Above normal temps ahead of a stronger cold front that moves through Wednesday. - Thunderstorm chances increase again Tuesday evening/night ahead of the next cold front.
(Today through Wednesday) Key Messages: - Dense Fog Advisory in effect through 11AM - Strong Cold Front expected tomorrow As winds calmed overnight across South Texas, some areas have seen radiation fog developing thus deteriorating conditions. The cold front will begin to sweep through the CWA beginning around midday tomorrow clearing the region by the evening.
527 AM CST Tue Dec 17 2024 (Today through Wednesday) Key Messages: - Dense Fog Advisory in effect through 11AM - Strong Cold Front expected tomorrow As winds calmed overnight across South Texas, some areas have seen radiation fog developing thus deteriorating conditions. The cold front will begin to sweep through the CWA beginning around midday tomorrow clearing the region by the evening.
530 AM CST Tue Dec 17 2024 Warm weather and thunderstorms, some potentially severe, continue today ahead of a cold front that will pass tonight through Wednesday.
516 AM CST Tue Dec 17 2024 Updated at 514 AM CST Tue Dec 17 2024 - A cold front will bring strong northeasterly winds through Guadalupe Pass late tonight through Wednesday morning, where a High Wind Watch is in effect. - Cooler temperatures and gusty northeast winds are to be expected for all on Wednesday.
- Temperatures will trend cooler through the end of the week. The latest surface analysis is showing high pressure centered over western Missouri with a cold front extending from the western Great Lakes across Iowa into the Northern Plains. Most of the area was clear, though high clouds are beginning to stream into the northwest Missouri ahead of an upper trough currently over the northern Rockies. The HREF has the upper trough moving toward the area later today and this evening with a 35 knot low level jet picking up out of the southwest by late this evening. The combination of ascent and low level moisture convergence will generate scattered showers across the area beginning this evening that will continue into the overnight hours with the highest chances (50-70%) over southeast Missouri into southwest Illinois.
307 AM PST Tue Dec 17 2024 Warmer through the middle of this week with weak to moderate strength Santa Ana winds peaking for tonight into Wednesday morning.
Given ridging in place and clouds likely hanging off, patchy to areas of fog will once again be possible on Wednesday morning; however, confidence is not as high as today was.
236 PM EST Tue Dec 17 2024 High pressure will build into the region late this afternoon into tonight. The high will move to the western Atlantic Wednesday to allow another low pressure system to impact the area Wednesday into Wednesday evening.
Also of interest is a cluster of showers and storms that has been tracking from the lower Delta into central MS this morning. Otherwise, expected additional showers this afternoon into tonight mainly along and north of the Highway 82 corridor.
1238 PM EST Tue Dec 17 2024 - Light snow accumulation Wednesday morning - Accumulating snow and slick roads favored late Thu to early Fri - Cold Weekend - Light snow accumulation Wednesday morning Of the two Clipper-style troughs to affect us through the workweek, late tonight to Wednesday morning is likely to be more modest with snow amounts and impacts.