Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
We could see a few spots of drizzle/freezing rain, but nothing widespread enough to include in the forecast. On the higher end, we could see 2-3" with that band. with the lower end holding closer 1". Wither warmer temperatures, blowing/drifting will be limited mainly to much higher elevations. This would be mainly Sunday morning, with the caveat that warmer temperatures would lead to wet, slushy snow with some melting occurring as it falls.
That bifurcation is in part due to warm air advection from the south building a temperature ridge which will bring 850mb temps along the I 94 corridor above freezing this afternoon. A mid level low coupled with the above conditions could bring a period of freezing rain along the I 94 corridor with the warmest air and best chance for ice in and around Jackson this afternoon. While surface temperatures will warm into the upper 20s to low 30s this afternoon they will remain at to below freezing. The northeasterly flow off the backside of the low will have larger sided flakes which will aid in accumulation. Northwest flow behind the low will increase winds Sunday afternoon upwards of 20 to 30 mph, especially along the lakeshore.
Weak offshore flow will occur below mountains passes and coastal foothills this morning through Sunday morning for warmer weather. Surface pressure gradients are nearly neutral to the high deserts but trending offshore.
508 AM CST Sat Feb 15 2025 - Breezy conditions continue through the next 24 hours, with slightly cooler temperatures this afternoon behind a cold front.
Rain/snow mix will occur this evening as a cold front moves in.
Issued 405 AM CST Sat Feb 15 2025 Today through Sunday: Periods of accumulating snow will continue today into early Sunday, as a trough of low pressure gradually swings through the area. There will be multiple impulses within this trough that will bring the rounds of snow.
A broad trough will exit the area this morning, resulting in a lull in precipitation late Saturday into Sunday morning.
Outside of a few showers in the Four Corners this afternoon, slightly warmer and dry conditions are expected.
One was to keep any mention of precipitation out of the forecast for the this morning with the front still offshore, and the upper ridge axis overhead.
- Snow showers and lingering moisture freezing to roadway could lead to slippery travel at some locations Sunday evening and night. Currently, moderate to heavy rainfall is occurring in a west to east oriented zone across the central CWA where the warm front is stalled. As the low moves through the area, a line of convection is expected to move through from around midnight tonight to just before sunrise Sunday. As the upper trough moves through the area Sunday, snow showers will develop that will linger into early Sunday night.
Overnight tonight an upper level trough will moves northeast dragging a cold front towards our area. Dropping the low temperatures to the 40s (north) and 50s (south).
This afternoon, despite the lack of snow, the region has been seeing on/off freezing rain/drizzle as the DGZ has struggled to remain saturated.
Weak offshore flow will occur below mountains passes and coastal foothills this morning through Sunday morning for warmer weather.
Earlier today, we saw some light showers clip the lower Keys, including Key West where the ASOS at the airport reported just under a tenth of an inch of rain! Even though dry conditions have already returned, showers will continue over the Deep Gulf waters for the next few hours.
1123 AM CST Sat Feb 15 2025 - Breezy conditions continue through the next 24 hours, with slightly cooler temperatures this afternoon behind a cold front.
Generally dry today (except in northern mountains where light snow will continue) with at least partial clearing behind last night's trough now east of our CWA, and ahead of the next Pacific trough due early Sunday morning.
With each scan of the radar, these showers have held together pretty well over the past couple of hours, so we have updated the current forecast to reflect a slight chance of rain brushing the Lower Keys today. The forecast has also been updated to reflect the increase in cloud coverage as a result of this plume of moisture, and skies will be partly cloudy in the Lower Keys and adjacent waters today.
532 PM CST Sat Feb 15 2025 (Tonight through Sunday night) - Cold front clearing the region this evening - Potential for a Gale Warning needed Sunday As we take a look at satellite, the cold front has pushed through much of the region and will continue to push offshore over the next couple of hours. This high is expected to tighten the pressure gradient over the waters allowing for winds to increase to at or near gale force tomorrow.
Despite the ridging aloft, partly to mostly cloudy skies associated with the approaching trough will keep high temperatures in the upper 50s to low 60s throughout the Delta, Valley, and foothills, with 40s to 50s at higher elevations today. This cloud cover and attendant increasing precipitation chances into Sunday will keep lower elevation low temperatures in the lower 40s while 20s to mid 30s prevail at higher elevations.
Lingering moisture freezing to roadways could lead to slippery travel at some locations Sunday evening and night. Currently, moderate to heavy rainfall is occurring in a west to east oriented zone across the central CWA where the warm front is stalled. As the low moves through the area, a line of convection is expected to move through from around midnight tonight to just before sunrise Sunday. As the upper trough moves through the area Sunday, snow showers will develop that will linger into early Sunday night.
Quiet conditions will persist through the rest of tonight under high pressure.
518 PM CST Sat Feb 15 2025 - Dry and cooler area-wide on Sunday.
Moist southerly flow will continue into Sunday as a cold front approaches from the northwest.
(Tonight through Sunday night) - Cold front clearing the region this evening - Potential for a Gale Warning needed Sunday As we take a look at satellite, the cold front has pushed through much of the region and will continue to push offshore over the next couple of hours. This high is expected to tighten the pressure gradient over the waters allowing for winds to increase to at or near gale force tomorrow.
241 PM MST Sat Feb 15 2025 KEY MESSAGES: - Flurries or light snow accumulations are possible this evening through NE Montana from north to south associated with a new cold front. - Once tonight's cold front connects with more available moisture from the west by mid-day Sunday, more measurable snow fall will begin to accumulate through central and southern Montana.
Weak offshore flow will occur below mountains passes and coastal foothills this morning through Sunday morning for warmer weather. WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO Currently, high pressure conditions dominate the region as a ridge continues to build back in, with mostly clear skies, despite a few passing high clouds. With higher pressure continuing to build in, daytime temperatures will be warmer tomorrow on Sunday.
1038 PM CST Sat Feb 15 2025 - Dry and cooler area-wide on Sunday.
This has allowed for southern portions of the convective line to become undercut and slightly elevated behind the cold front.
Weak high pressure is moving over northern Arizona tonight with much drier surface conditions.
This front will continue to clear skies through the afternoon with drier and warmer air behind it. Highs today will peak in the 70s and low 80s for most, but the mild temperatures will be short-lived with the arrival of a strong cold front late tonight. Lows Sunday morning will be near freezing in the southern Edwards Plateau and Hill Country with temperatures in the mid 30s to mid 40s elsewhere.
In spite of ample sunshine today, temperatures will be much cooler and well below average. Warmer temperatures are expected, though slightly below average.
Seeing the passage of a warm front this evening with light snow across e-central oregon and the w-central Idaho mtns. A few spots in the lower Snake Plain could approach 2 inches (generally north of the Interstate between Caldwell to Ontario). Transition to rain/snow mix or all rain after Sun/18Z as temperatures rise above freezing. Upper level ridge along the coast will move into our CWA while gradually flattening overnight as the next faster moving trough overtakes it. Already mid and high clouds are moving through the ridge axis, but deeper moisture and pcpn will come in later tonight, mainly over northern zones. Vertical temperature profiles support a slight chance of freezing rain in the Lower Treasure Valley Sunday night, while high humidity supports areas of fog in the valleys Sunday night.
305 AM EST Sun Feb 16 2025 A longwave trough across the central part of the country will continue to swing across the U. High pressure along with cooler, drier air builds in for Monday, with highs back toward normal or slightly below normal.
356 AM EST Sun Feb 16 2025 - Icy conditions this morning with light snow - Lake effect snow with well below normal temperatures ahead - Icy conditions this morning with light snow So while the snowfall amounts failed to materialize, the unsaturated DGZ allowed for a prolonged period of freezing drizzle/freezing rain, which has created icy conditions across southern Michigan. However, the dry air aloft continues to keep the area where snow would be created dry, which will keep freezing rain the predominate precip type for the next few hours.
Damaging winds potentially in excess of 70 mph, with locally up to 80 mph, will be likely with the low level jet now becoming enhanced with latest VAD profilers from KMOB and KHDC now between 55-65 kts between 3-6kft. Confidence in this occurrence is much lower as compared to the high confidence for severe storms within the squall line itself.
142 AM MST Sun Feb 16 2025 KEY MESSAGES: - A cold front moved through NE Montana overnight. - Once that cold front connects with more available moisture from the west by mid-day today, more measurable snow fall will begin to accumulate through central and southern Montana.
The low will move northeast tonight towards Southeast Ohio. One, there is a threat for freezing drizzle through the time the snow starts. The DGZ is not saturated at times through roughly 400am, so freezing drizzle remains a possibility through that time. This afternoon, despite the lack of snow, the region has been seeing on/off freezing rain/drizzle as the DGZ has struggled to remain saturated.
1059 PM CST Sat Feb 15 2025 Updated at 1055 PM CST Sat Feb 15 2025 - A cold front tonight drops temperatures below normal for Sunday but we rebound Monday ahead of an even stronger front. The base of a strong upper-level trough is passing over the area. 40s and 50s are to be expected for most locations along and east of the Pecos River with warmer temperatures in the 60s and 70s to the west.
Weak offshore flow and high pressure will bring warmer weather for Sunday. Widespread high clouds in a ridge of high pressure will continue to cover the region tonight, inhibiting radiation cooling somewhat so that overnight lows will not be as cold as last night. With higher pressure continuing to build in, daytime temperatures will be warmer tomorrow.
Ridge of high pressure will keep things dry and warm temperatures up above average the next couple days.
Low to mid level ridge is situated across the southwest North Atlantic and slowly trudging east. This is maintaining southeast winds for now but winds will gradually clock around overnight as the high departs further east. Breezes will quickly slacken during the day on Sunday and give way to variable breezes Sunday night as a cold front passes over the Keys around Monday morning.
(Today through Monday) A strong low-pressure system is forecast to move across the Ohio Valley today, pushing a cold front across the southeastern US towards Florida. The supporting mid-level trough will remain well north of the peninsula as it progresses eastward, and as a result, the front will gradually weaken as it drops along the state tonight. Temperatures overnight may drop to the low 60s over the interior, and upper 60s and low 70s along the coastal areas.
1131 PM CST Sat Feb 15 2025 (Tonight through Sunday night) - Cold front clearing the region this evening - Potential for a Gale Warning needed Sunday As we take a look at satellite, the cold front has pushed through much of the region and will continue to push offshore over the next couple of hours. This high is expected to tighten the pressure gradient over the waters allowing for winds to increase to at or near gale force tomorrow.
Composite satellite analysis places a sweeping cold front stretching from the central Gulf northeastward to the Mid- Atlantic, with quite impressive amounts of lightning along the leading edge of the front. Visible satellite imagery highlights general anticyclonic flow ahead of the front, with fair weather cumuli streaming towards the Island Chain in the low- level southeast to south steering flow. A cold front will push over the Keys coastal waters Monday morning.
(Today) Much quieter weather prevailed across the greater Tennessee Valley, after the passage of a strong cold front/quasi-linear convective system. With the clouds and the airmass change, high temperatures today will notably cooler, ranging from the mid 40s NE AL to lower 50s NE AL.
A cold front will work its way over the peninsula today. Cooler, drier air moves in behind the front.
- Chances for snow continue through tomorrow night with the highest amounts in the northern and central mountains. Snow showers have pretty much come to an end with the exception of the highest peaks. The trough driving this event will be weakening and shearing out into several small waves that may enhance the lift at times. A cold front will also push through the area causing snow to develop in the southern mountains.
- Lingering moisture freezing to roadways could lead to hazardous travel where road treatments have been washed away this evening into overnight.
- A cold front and coastal low late Tue / early Wed to bring risk of excessive rainfall and severe weather.
530 AM CST Sun Feb 16 2025 Updated at 521 AM CST Sun Feb 16 2025 - A cold front drops temperatures below normal for today but we rebound Monday ahead of an even stronger front.
A cold front currently visible on GOES-16 in the Florida Panhandle is making it's way toward the Florida Keys. A cold front is expected to pass over the Keys around Monday morning.
647 AM MST Sun Feb 16 2025 - Areas of dense fog and freezing drizzle around Colorado springs through mid morning.
Updated at 237 AM CST Sun Feb 16 2025 - A cold front drops temperatures below normal for today but we rebound Monday ahead of an even stronger front.
The low moves onshore just north of the area Sunday night into Monday morning, then shifts eastward as a trough Monday night.
541 AM CST Sun Feb 16 2025 (Today) Much quieter weather prevailed across the greater Tennessee Valley, after the passage of a strong cold front/quasi-linear convective system. With the clouds and the airmass change, high temperatures today will notably cooler, ranging from the mid 40s NE AL to lower 50s NE AL.
642 AM EST Sun Feb 16 2025 - Icy conditions this morning with light snow - Lake effect snow with well below normal temperatures ahead - Icy conditions this morning with light snow So while the snowfall amounts failed to materialize, the unsaturated DGZ allowed for a prolonged period of freezing drizzle/freezing rain, which has created icy conditions across southern Michigan. However, the dry air aloft continues to keep the area where snow would be created dry, which will keep freezing rain the predominate precip type for the next few hours.
504 AM CST Sun Feb 16 2025 - Dry and cooler area-wide on Sunday.
Weak offshore flow and high pressure will bring warmer weather today.
Trough axis will pass to the east of the area by mid-morning with colder, drier air moving into the area. There's some potential for temperatures to fall to the freezing mark over southwest Mississippi briefly toward sunrise Monday, if the winds go calm. At present, it's questionable whether freezing temperatures will be widespread enough to justify a watch/warning.
Issued by National Weather Service Denver CO 339 AM MST Sun Feb 16 2025 - Areas of dense fog and freezing drizzle around Colorado springs through mid morning.
A ridge of high pressure will keep things dry and warm with temperatures above average the next couple days.
1050 AM CST Sun Feb 16 2025 - A cold front and coastal low late Tue / early Wed to bring risk of excessive rainfall and severe weather.
Lows tonight are thus forecast to dip into the lower to mid 20.
1135 AM CST Sun Feb 16 2025 (Rest of Today) The surface cold front (and line of showers and storms that brought severe weather to the area last night) has pushed well to our east and southeast. In its wake, high pressure will dig southward over the central CONUS and also into the Southeast. Cloud cover as well as breezy northwest winds behind the front will result in cooler high temperatures this afternoon.
The low level flow remains cyclonic as the arctic air flows in from the north northwest later this afternoon and into Monday morning.
(This afternoon through Monday) A cold front associated with an area of low pressure moving across the eastern United States is crossing North Florida this morning and is forecast to move across the peninsula through the day before reaching South Florida this evening/tonight. Temperatures on Monday will be more moderated with cooler air arriving with the northerly flow. Max temps for Monday will range from the mid 70s along the Atlantic to the lower 80s along the Atlantic coast as northeasterly flow develops.
Meanwhile, a zoomed out water vapor imagery map highlights a cold front extended from the central Gulf northeastward to the Mid-Atlantic continues to progress eastward.
1124 AM CST Sun Feb 16 2025 Updated at 1117 AM CST Sun Feb 16 2025 - A cold front drops temperatures below normal for today but we rebound Monday ahead of an even stronger front.
Low clouds will continue to slowly diminish from west to east in wake of yesterdays cold front. However, because of the cloud cover along with gusty northwest winds bringing in cooler and drier air, highs this afternoon will generally top out in the 40s areawide.
DS/12 (Now through Monday) Much drier and cooler airmass flowing into the region in the wake of this mornings cold frontal passage. in the wake of a strong cold front through Monday night. The drier and cooler, actually much cooler, conditions will continue through Monday night. Lows tonight will likely be the coldest, ranging from the upper 20s up along the Highway 84 corridor to the mid and upper 30s down at the coast. Lows Monday night still cold but slightly warmer than tonight, when temps will range from the lower 30s over the far northern potions of our forecast area and the low to mid 40s along the coast.
- Chances for snow continue through tomorrow night with the highest amounts in the northern and central mountains. although the chances are not particularly high Snow showers have pretty much come to an end with the exception of the highest peaks. The trough driving this event will be weakening and shearing out into several small waves that may enhance the lift at times. A cold front will also push through the area causing snow to develop in the southern mountains.
The morning sounding shows the freezing level at 5400 feet which puts the snow level between 4500 and 5000 feet this morning. The high res guidance shows showers should remain mainly concentrated in the above mentioned areas and more isolated east of the Cascades with little to nothing in southern Lake County and Modoc County. A mixture of MVFR and IFR ceilings are anticipated to continue today as relatively warm moist air pushes in ahead of the next cold front. The probability of precipitation increases once the cold front moves in around the afternoon hours.
(Rest of Today) The surface cold front (and line of showers and storms that brought severe weather to the area last night) has pushed well to our east and southeast. In its wake, high pressure will dig southward over the central CONUS and also into the Southeast. Cloud cover as well as breezy northwest winds behind the front will result in cooler high temperatures this afternoon.
1022 AM MST Sun Feb 16 2025 - Areas of dense fog and freezing drizzle around Colorado springs through mid morning.
The morning sounding shows the freezing level at 5400 feet which puts the snow level between 4500 and 5000 feet this morning. The high res guidance shows showers should remain mainly concentrated in the above mentioned areas and more isolated east of the Cascades with little to nothing in southern Lake County and Modoc County. Snow levels remain at 4500 to 5000 feet, limiting snowfall to the higher terrain areas.
The cold front continues to slowly move SE over the area. Behind the front, high pressure will build back in.
A trailing weaker trough with light snow in western Idaho should also move eastward and out of our CWA by 2PM. The rest of the day should have only flurries and/or sprinkles before a cold front comes in tonight with widespread pcpn. The main upper trough will continue snow showers into Monday, except rain below 4000 feet. Transition to rain/snow mix or all rain after Sun/18Z as temperatures rise above freezing.
256 PM EST Sun Feb 16 2025 (This afternoon through Monday night) The potent cold front and squall line from this morning cleared the area by mid to late morning. A few light snow showers remain possible over the highest elevations of the N this evening, but only a dusting to a tenth of an inch of snow are expected. Lows tonight will be much colder, with readings ranging from near 20 in the NE mountains to near freezing in the extreme SE zones. Highs will be 5 to 10 degrees below normal, ranging from the lower to mid 40s across the N to the mid 50s across the S. Under mostly clear skies, lows Monday night will range from the mid 20s in the N to the lower to mid 30s in the SE.
1117 AM CST Sun Feb 16 2025 - Dry and cooler area-wide on Sunday.
- Snow showers and moisture refreezing to roadways could lead to hazardous travel tonight.
610 PM EST Sun Feb 16 2025 (This afternoon through Monday) A cold front associated with an area of low pressure moving across the eastern United States is crossing North Florida this morning and is forecast to move across the peninsula through the day before reaching South Florida this evening/tonight. Temperatures on Monday will be more moderated with cooler air arriving with the northerly flow. Max temps for Monday will range from the mid 70s along the Atlantic to the lower 80s along the Atlantic coast as northeasterly flow develops.
730 PM EST Sun Feb 16 2025 (This afternoon through Monday) A cold front associated with an area of low pressure moving across the eastern United States is crossing North Florida this morning and is forecast to move across the peninsula through the day before reaching South Florida this evening/tonight. Temperatures on Monday will be more moderated with cooler air arriving with the northerly flow. Max temps for Monday will range from the mid 70s along the Atlantic to the lower 80s along the Atlantic coast as northeasterly flow develops.
Heading through the night, the low level pressure gradient will relax as surface ridging begins to build in from the north. Monday will be seasonably cool but warmer than today with the help of more plentiful sun. Synoptically the pattern hasn't changed much, upper level troughing will stretch from Canada through the deep south. In addition a low pressure system tracks southward into the deep south before pivoting back to the northeast.