Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
648 PM EDT Thu Oct 17 2024 Canadian high pressure will build overhead tonight to bring frost and freeze conditions by Friday morning. 2) Freezing temperatures are expected by Friday morning west of the Blue Ridge, while areas of frost are expected to the east. Canadian high pressure will build eastward towards the Appalachian Mountains this evening and settle overhead tonight to start a long stretch of dry weather. Tomorrow morning is the real threat for freezing temperatures in the mountains and areas of frost in the Piedmont when light winds and clear skies will provide better radiational cooling. Subsidence will keep skies mostly clear, and daytime highs will start trending warmer each day, eventually closer to seasonal norms, in the upper 60s to low 70s.
943 PM EDT Thu Oct 17 2024 * Frost is likely again tonight into tomorrow morning, with freezing temperatures possible in rural areas and river valleys. As a result, dry and mild weather will continue for the Lower Ohio. Visible satellite imagery have been depicting a small and brief layer of shallow cumulus across the Bluegrass and Cumberland where low-level saturation deficits are lower compared to further west where the high pressure center is. Rest of the afternoon and early evening will feature clear skies, light winds, and highs in the low to mid 60s. Also, near freezing temperatures could be reported in typical cold locations and along the river valleys, where instances of fog will also be possible.
Return flow from the Atlantic on the southern side of the area of high pressure is helping to advect more moist air into the area from the east and southeast.
The surface boundary will bring a cold front through the northwest Sandhills. The latest HREF mean QPF generates very little QPF, or the latest WPC qpf, so any precipitation will be brief and very light to only a few hundredths Low temperatures will be very mild in the mid 50s south of the cold front with a breezy south wind, while colder in the upper 30s to upper 40s north of the front with a light northeast wind. Friday and Friday night, an upper trough will dig south across the Great Basin, with a closed low to drop into Arizona and stall out. Highs will contrast from the mid 50s to low 60s northwest Sandhills north of the front, to the low to mid 70s south of the front.
639 PM CDT Thu Oct 17 2024 (This evening through Friday Night) Easterly to northeasterly flow will continue to draw in cooler air through the overnight hours tonight, yielding another chilly morning for Southeast Texas.
Quigley Issued 302 PM CDT Thu Oct 17 2024 Tonight and Friday: High pressure centered over the western Ohio River Valley will remain nearly stationary into the weekend. This large area of high pressure will influence much of the state, keeping conditions dry and quiet. With the gradual warming trend underway, both the overnight lows and high temperatures Friday are expected to be warmer than previously.
643 PM CDT Thu Oct 17 2024 (This evening through Friday night) After starting our day in the 40s with exception to the southshore, we've made it all the way up into the low 70s. An exceptionally deep layer of dry air is entrenched on the backside of the strong long wave trough exiting the eastern CONUS spanning down the entire Mississippi River Basin and into the southeastern CONUS. With PWATs at daily record minimums and high pressure settling in across the eastern CONUS it's safe to say we're not getting much in the way of rain chances anytime soon.
Skies are again clear, but we should maintain enough gradient around the periphery of the high to prevent ideal radiational cooling conditions. The low temperature forecast is expected to be nearly a persistence forecast from last night. Currently on water vapor an area of closed low pressure was centered off of the Mid-Atlantic coast. By Friday, the closed low will be slowly meandering east with height rises occurring across the eastern United States as mid-level ridging slowly builds in from the west. However, looking at forecast soundings for the region only supports mixing up to about 900 mb, and given the thermal compaction in the low levels, thicknesses should be a better proxy for high temperatures.
716 PM EDT Thu Oct 17 2024 (Rest of today through Friday) Most of South FL will see drier and cooler conditions today and Friday as a cold front remains in place across the Florida Straits. Low temps tonight will range from the lower 60s around the lake to lower 70s across the east coast metro. High temps on Friday will be a couple degrees warmer but remain below normal with lower 80s for most.
805 PM MDT Thu Oct 17 2024 KEY MESSAGES: - Rainfall associated with today's cold front will move into the Dakotas later tonight. - A few cool days and freezing nights will be followed by a rebound back to warmer temperatures later this weekend.
835 PM CDT Thu Oct 17 2024 (This evening through Friday Night) The region will remain sandwiched between a deepening trough to our west, and an expanding ridging to our east. Elsewhere, look for highs tomorrow to range in the low to mid-70s.
A strong cold front will continue to progress through central Nevada this evening bringing showers and thunderstorms, graupel, gusty winds and rapidly falling snow levels. NWS observers and remote observation platforms are showing the changeover from rain to snow as far south as Austin, as well as the higher terrain further north. Temperatures have cooled rapidly behind the strong cold front moving east and south this afternoon. Impressive cold front with attendant band of showers and thunderstorms will continue to move through the area through tonight. The highest swath of wetting rains is expected across Lander and Eureka counties, eastern Humboldt county and Elko county where probabilities of reaching or exceeding one tenth of an inch are 90-100 percent.
704 PM CDT Thu Oct 17 2024 - Critical fire weather concerns will linger into the early evening hours as winds continue to gust over 40 MPH and RH levels remain in the lower 20% range.
648 PM CDT Thu Oct 17 2024 (Tonight) Mean troughing that was over the eastern Lower-48 much of this past week has finally moved to the NE, as upper ridging builds in from the SW. The higher heights and nearly unattenuated sun has helped to make for a milder day than yesterday, with temperatures so far warming into the mid 60s with mainly light winds. A storm system amplifying over the western states should result in a troughing west/ridging east setup over the CONUS over the weekend. However cool air was still in place, thanks to high pressure centered over the central Appalachians. This should result in the development of more frost, especially in those normally cooler spots.
An earlier cold front has now essentially stalled across Cuba and the Keys are in the slightly drier zone just north of this decaying front. In addition, while strong, the lower level wind profile is unidirectional. The lower levels are expected to approach saturation along with some lower level veering setting up.
A freeze warning remains in effect for the Upper Treasure and Western Magic Valley zones tonight, while a frost advisory is in effect for the Lower Treasure Valley. In addition, a freeze watch is in effect for Friday night in the Lower Treasure Valley. So if the freeze warning verifies (if there's actually freezing temperatures over most of the zone) tonight, then no additional freeze warnings will be issued for the Upper Treasure and Western Magic Valley zones this fall.
315 AM CDT Fri Oct 18 2024 - Elevated to significant fire danger is expected today, especially along and west of the Highway 65 corridor.
(Today through Saturday) Ridging will strengthen over the eastern CONUS today, while troughing deepens over the western CONUS. One embedded mid-level anticyclone will close off near eastern Lake Erie today, while a subtropical ridge builds across Florida and the eastern Gulf tomorrow. Will continue to go on the higher side of guidance for high temperatures and the cooler side for low temperatures given worsening drought conditions.
Winds were adjusted lower for this evening and tonight, especially over the ridges, except for around Mount Shasta. Typically when conditions become stable, the net result are light winds in the valleys and near and at the ridges in the absence of a tough pressure gradient and lighter winds aloft. Some of the short range guidance shows dewpoints trending ever so slightly lower tonight, but probably not enough to allow temperatures to drop below freezing. For now we'll hold off on making any adjustments because skies are clearing out and with a cooler air mass overhead and plenty of darkness ahead, the opportunity remains for temperatures to drop near or just a tad below freezing where we currently have the freeze warning out.
(Today and tonight) Northeast flow and ridging aloft will combine to kick off a gradual warming and moistening trend across the area today.
258 AM CDT Fri Oct 18 2024 - Warm today with a cold front moving in from the west bringing a chance for showers to the Northland today into Saturday.
- Temperatures are not expected to drop to freezing this morning. Any snow accumulation in the lower elevations will be isolated.
Critical fire weather conditions are ongoing this afternoon across much of the CWA as southerly winds gust to 25-40 mph while RHs hang in the low to mid 20s. In fact, this boundary will become the focus for our first chance of rain in the last several days as an upper-level trough nears from the northwest. Saturday's highs should be slightly cooler due to the cloud cover but these clouds should mostly clear out during Saturday night.
Rua (Tonight through Saturday night) Currently cool and dry conditions ongoing with temperatures expected to top out in the lower 70s at most. An upper ridge is atop the Central to Southern Plains with a ridge of high pressure meandering over the central ~ eastern CONUS.
213 AM EDT Fri Oct 18 2024 Canadian high pressure will build overhead tonight to bring frost and freeze conditions by Friday morning. Key Messages: 1) Sub-freezing temperatures and areas of frost this morning. 2) Warmer today as upper level ridging builds overhead. Expecting plenty of below freezing readings by daybreak and perhaps a few locations in the upper 20s in the more sheltered higher elevation valleys. Subsidence will keep skies mostly clear, and daytime highs will start trending warmer each day, eventually closer to seasonal norms, in the upper 60s to low 70s. Overnight lows will be warmer than the past few days, in the 40s for most, though the valleys could still reach the mid to upper 30s, with the coldest period being Saturday morning.
(Today through Saturday) Models had been signaling today as the best rain potential day in the week conveyor belt of moisture feeding into the deepening trough over the SW CONUS. The conveyor belt and clouds looks to hold near steady over our west counties while the developing upper low to the west ejects quickly north. The warming trend for tonight will be even more robust after the peak impacts of the polar trough on today's gusty surface winds surge higher dew points inland.
Low-level heights will be on the increase today with temperatures being about 5 to 8 degF warmer than yesterday.
(Today through Saturday Night) In the near term, our weather will be governed by a massive area of high pressure to our east/northeast. Initially, the high will be centered over the Ohio Valley before drifting toward the Tennessee Valley this weekend. Under the high, our dry pattern will continue, and there will be a slow warming trend. Temperatures on Saturday will be a couple of degrees warmer than today.
414 AM EDT Fri Oct 18 2024 (Today through Saturday) Key Messages: Prominent high pressure ridge over the eastern CONUS will hold through the short term, yielding gradually warming temperatures and clear to mostly sunny skies. Low temperatures this morning will be a few degrees warmer than yesterday, keeping any freeze risk at bay and frost concerns limited to NE GA where a Frost Advisory continues through 9 AM. Expect a few degrees warmer for both lows and highs again on Saturday.
High pressure/ridging at all levels will remain over the region through the short term period. Light winds and good radiating conditions will allow min temperatures cold enough for frost in many valleys again by dawn on Saturday, while ridges remain warmer above the cold air which pools below.
100 AM EDT Fri Oct 18 2024 (Rest of today through Friday) Most of South FL will see drier and cooler conditions today and Friday as a cold front remains in place across the Florida Straits. Low temps tonight will range from the lower 60s around the lake to lower 70s across the east coast metro. High temps on Friday will be a couple degrees warmer but remain below normal with lower 80s for most.
322 AM EDT Fri Oct 18 2024 Dry high pressure persists through the forecast period.
1130 PM CDT Thu Oct 17 2024 (This evening through Friday Night) Easterly to northeasterly flow will continue to draw in cooler air through the overnight hours tonight, yielding another chilly morning for Southeast Texas. Overnight lows Friday into Saturday morning will be slightly warmer.
High temperatures will remain around to slightly below normal today and Saturday, reaching the low to mid 80s across South Florida.
(Today) With high pressure dominating over the local area, dry conditions have persisted through the early overnight hours as temperatures have fallen into the upper 30s/lower 40s. Highs today will climb a few degrees higher than yesterday, topping out in the lower 70s under abundant sunshine.
Temperatures are currently in the upper 50s to mid 60s inland and the mid 60s to low 70s near the coast with dew points in the low to upper 50s. A dry and cool night is forecast with low temperatures in the mid 50s to low 60s over the inland counties and coastal counties north of Cape Canaveral with the low 60s to near 70 degrees to the south. An area of high pressure will remain situated across the eastern U.
Frost will be possible for most of the region and freezing temps will be possible in the higher elevations, NE Tennessee and SW Virginia. Discussion: A large ridge of high pressure will provide a dry weather for the short term period. With winds becoming calm/light overnight, a cool airmass in place, and a clear sky, areas of frost will form across much of the area later tonight and a few locations may see temperatures drop to near freezing around sunrise.
Upper ridging across the eastern Great Lakes will extend southward into the Appalachians and Southeast U. while a vigorous closed upper trough remains cutoff from the westerlies as it digs into the Four Corners area of the country. Our region remains sandwiched between the two but in the lower levels, we just can't seem to get any low level moisture return. An area of very low PWAT with values only near one quarter of an inch has anchored itself across our entire region and that dry air is here to stay as the above mentioned ridge axis to our east will begin to slowly retrograde westward into our region during the day Saturday.
228 AM MDT Fri Oct 18 2024 KEY MESSAGES: - A cool Friday and freezing night will be followed by a rebound back to warmer temperatures later this weekend.
Otherwise, today will be slightly warmer as heights and thicknesses increase in response to an upper ridge moves west into the region. Otherwise, RH values will continue to remain on the low side today so additional fires may ignite, but thankfully winds will be on the lackluster side limiting spread and reducing the need for fire weather headlines across the region.
232 AM EDT Fri Oct 18 2024 Warming and moderating trend to begin today as upper low moves off the Mid Atlantic and weak upper ridging from the NE Carib nudges into the region. At the surface, the strong high pressure center that is north of the state will continue to produce a tight pressure gradient with breezy NE winds that will increase low level dew points.
(Tonight through Saturday night) Key Messages: - High risk of rip currents through Saturday night - Minor coastal flooding expected through Saturday night Temperatures today and Saturday will be much like yesterday with afternoon temperatures in the low to mid 80s and overnight lows in the 60s.
(Now through Saturday) An upper ridge over eastern North America will breakdown across eastern Canada and the Great Lakes region on Saturday as a longwave trough invades from the north, but will persist over our region.
120 AM CDT Fri Oct 18 2024 (This evening through Saturday) High pressure is expected to control the weather pattern through much of the period.
Some of the snow even made it in to the lower valleys around Pocatello where we saw a few hours of snow fall. Overnight lows will drop into the mid 20s across much of the Snake Plain with upper teens and lower 20s likely in the higher terrain. High pressure will build over the area for the weekend allowing the area to dry out once again with gradually moderating temperatures but will remain on the cooler side of normal Saturday.
It's windy and warm this afternoon with a very large ridge encompassing much of the eastern two thirds of the country. Temperatures continue to warm into the low 70s, with mid 70s to mid 80s toward central SD. Dew points have been slowly increasing, but not at the rate necessary to keep humidities from dropping further and those readings are now generally in the low to mid 20s. Winds continue to gust in the 30s, with a few 40s on the Buffalo Ridge. Mid level clouds will begin to overspread the area overnight with the approach of a cold front. The front will wash out Saturday, but lingering cloud cover will keep temperatures a bit cooler than today and tomorrow.
The region will remain under the control of ridging aloft today, despite its axis residing just east of the forecast area. Meanwhile at the surface, high pressure centered across Appalachia will remain wedged into the forecast area. Highs will be a touch warmer today, compared to yesterday, as they top out in the low and middle 70s.
Upper low on track to bring the first rainfall the area has seen in nearly a month this weekend. High temperatures tomorrow will be in the low to mid 70s and lows Friday night mainly in the 40s.
As of early this morning, a cold front along the Red River Valley was tracking to the east.
Overall today's conditions look similar to yesterday, although winds will be around 10 mph lighter as the pressure gradient weakens somewhat over the region due to departing high pressure over the eastern CONUS.
------------------------------------------------------------------- The influence of high pressure has created a perfect combination of clear skies, light winds and cooler air which is expected to lead to widespread frost development overnight tonight. Areas with highest confidence in widespread sub-freezing temperature were highlighted with the Freeze Warning while the lower confidence areas received a Frost Advisory. This is in agreement with the HREF which paints the lowest visibilities and coincident low cloud cover near sunrise to the north and west of Pittsburgh.
(Today through Saturday Night) Warm weather slowly makes it's return to SE Texas as ridging remains in place over the East/Central CONUS.
806 AM EDT Fri Oct 18 2024 Warming and moderating trend to begin today as upper low moves off the Mid Atlantic and weak upper ridging from the NE Carib nudges into the region. At the surface, the strong high pressure center that is north of the state will continue to produce a tight pressure gradient with breezy NE winds that will increase low level dew points.
Strong cold front has exited the forecast area to the southeast with snow showers also continuing to diminish this morning. Temperatures several degrees cooler than average expected today along with breezy and gusty winds. Surface cold front has exited the forecast area to the southeast with snow showers and sky cover continuing to clear from northwest to southeast. Trof axis situated over Utah by this afternoon with robust and chilly northerly flow over northern and central Nevada. Upper trof evolves into a deep cut off low over the four corners region Friday night and Saturday with weaker upper flow over Nevada. Warmer temperatures Saturday with daytime highs in the mid 50s to mid 60s and overnight lows in the upper teens to upper 20s.
(Today through Saturday) Key Messages: Prominent high pressure ridge over the eastern CONUS will hold through the short term, yielding gradually warming temperatures and clear to mostly sunny skies. Low temperatures this morning will be a few degrees warmer than yesterday, keeping any freeze risk at bay and frost concerns limited to NE GA where a Frost Advisory continues through 9 AM. Expect a few degrees warmer for both lows and highs again on Saturday.
Warming and moderating trend to begin today as upper low moves off the Mid Atlantic and weak upper ridging from the NE Carib nudges into the region. At the surface, the strong high pressure center that is north of the state will continue to produce a tight pressure gradient with breezy NE winds that will increase low level dew points.
A very similar pattern to yesterday with upper ridging influencing calm conditions across the region. Highs will be warmer than yesterday, in the lower to middle 70s. The region will remain under the control of ridging aloft today, despite its axis residing just east of the forecast area. Meanwhile at the surface, high pressure centered across Appalachia will remain wedged into the forecast area. Highs will be a touch warmer today, compared to yesterday, as they top out in the low and middle 70s.
958 AM CDT Fri Oct 18 2024 - The probability for impactful weather over the next 7 days is low The cold front continues to push through northwestern Minnesota, with rain on its tail. As of early this morning, a cold front along the Red River Valley was tracking to the east.
Temperatures are looking to run around 5-10 degrees warmer today than yesterday. Low-level heights will be on the increase today with temperatures being about 5 to 8 degF warmer than yesterday.
552 AM CDT Fri Oct 18 2024 (Today through Saturday Night) Warm weather slowly makes it's return to SE Texas as ridging remains in place over the East/Central CONUS.
638 AM CDT Fri Oct 18 2024 (Today through Saturday) Models had been signaling today as the best rain potential day in the week conveyor belt of moisture feeding into the deepening trough over the SW CONUS. The conveyor belt and clouds looks to hold near steady over our west counties while the developing upper low to the west ejects quickly north. The warming trend for tonight will be even more robust after the peak impacts of the polar trough on today's gusty surface winds surge higher dew points inland.
Strong cold front has exited the forecast area to the southeast with snow showers also continuing to diminish this morning. Temperatures several degrees cooler than average expected today along with breezy and gusty winds. Snow has subsided as the cold front has moved southeast and out of the forecast area. Surface cold front has exited the forecast area to the southeast with snow showers and sky cover continuing to clear from northwest to southeast. Trof axis situated over Utah by this afternoon with robust and chilly northerly flow over northern and central Nevada. Upper trof evolves into a deep cut off low over the four corners region Friday night and Saturday with weaker upper flow over Nevada. Warmer temperatures Saturday with daytime highs in the mid 50s to mid 60s and overnight lows in the upper teens to upper 20s.
550 AM CDT Fri Oct 18 2024 (Today) With high pressure dominating over the local area, dry conditions have persisted through the early overnight hours as temperatures have fallen into the upper 30s/lower 40s. Highs today will climb a few degrees higher than yesterday, topping out in the lower 70s under abundant sunshine.
Today, while the area of highest concern for gusty winds has shifted slightly south, is still expected to have the higher overall wind gusts of the two days.
(Rest of Today) High pressure continues to dominate the Southeast today. The increase in heights and plenty of sunshine will help afternoon temps reach the lower 70s.