Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
(This evening through Sunday night) An upper level short wave trough is moving away from the Panhandles into central Kansas. Some isolated thunderstorms may try to make a run at the northwest CWA tonight in association with another short wave trough, so have mentioned some low chances there.
A weak warm front is analyzed along just north and nearly parallel to I-40. A stray shower could sneak under the ridge this afternoon, but PoPs will remain 10 percent or less across the region.
Forecast soundings show the low levels trying to moisten up this afternoon south of Alligator Alley, but there's plenty of uncertainty on how well that will occur. On Sunday the mid/upper level high moves over the southeast US, which will help bring some drier air into the region. Much warmer temps expected, with afternoon highs in the upper 80s to around 90.
Temps are running on track to top out in the low/mid 60s north to low 70s south. A weak trough will be approaching the North Country, but low level high pressure will be building northward at the same time. The result will be much warmer overnight temperatures with lows in the upper 50s to around 60 degrees for most spots.
1123 AM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024 (Rest of Today) A very hot day is forecast across the Tennessee Valley as we remain under the influence of strong area of high pressure.
Despite the low wind speeds, weak warm air advection and subsidence from a departing upper-level ridge have allow the warming trend to continue. Some of the model guidance also suggests a weak disturbance will also move across the region as it travels around the western periphery of the departing ridge.
1105 AM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024 High pressure building from the northwest today will pass across Sunday morning and then head offshore by Sunday evening. The high will remain in control through late week. As an upper level trough shifts east this morning, heights rise aloft as an upper ridge builds over the eastern US. At the surface, high pressure builds in from the northwest. The air mass building in will be drier and a bit cooler than the past several days.
(The rest of today ) Current forecast looks in good shape going into the afternoon 850 mb temps a little cooler than those observed 24 hours ago, which may result in afternoon max temps a degree or so less than yesterday.
Weak high pressure will remain across the region into early Sunday then a stronger high will build southwest across the Florida peninsula setting up a tight pressure gradient with breezy easterly flow becoming established for much of the upcoming week.
/Issued 1246 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024/ /Through Tomorrow Afternoon/ Another hot day is in store across North and Central Texas with high temperatures expected to top out in the lower to mid 90s. Given the humidity, heat index values are going to run a few degrees warmer than the actual temperature. To our northwest, an upper level longwave trough is moving onshore the Pacific Northwest. With the ridge to our east and trough to our west, moisture advection will be on the increase early this week in response to the south/southeast low-level flow atop the region. Guidance continues to highlight a weakness in the ridge, spanning from the Gulf of Mexico to the Southern Plains over the first half of this upcoming week.
1223 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024 (Today through Sunday) A ridge in place over Central Alabama will result in highs in the mid to upper 90s across the area today. As the ridge slides eastward Sunday, southeasterly flow will hold highs mainly in the mid 90s.
High pressure, drier conditions, and slightly above normal temperatures are then expected through much of the upcoming week. This afternoon: A weak cold front will continue to slowly push into the Midlands and CSRA through this evening. Afternoon highs still on track to reach the mid to upper 90s, with heat index values in the upper 90s to the lower 100s. Overnight lows remain mild, generally in the low 70s. A stalled frontal boundary should be along a line from the lower CSRA through the Southeastern Midlands on Sunday. It will remain slightly warmer than normal with highs in the lower to mid 90s.
1227 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024 (Today through Sunday Night) Mostly calm and dry conditions are expected through the period under high pressure. Humidity will make heat index feel slightly warmer with values in the mid 90s to near 103.
251 PM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024 (This afternoon through Sunday) At a glance: - Hottest day of the year (so far) today - Isolated thunderstorms possible today and tomorrow afternoon The key player in the next few days' sensible weather is an amplifying mid-level ridge gradually making its way eastward, taking up residence across the Southeast/ECONUS. Sunday looks to be a few degrees "cooler", with highs in the low-to-mid 90s expected. Isolated thunderstorms are forecast, but ridging aloft -- and associated subsidence -- will inhibit more widespread convective initiation. Sensible differences in temperature under the wedge are unlikely to be felt outside of far northeast Georgia, where highs will be 5-6 degrees lower, in the low-to-mid 80s.
Today will be cooler and breezy as an upper level trough moves by to our north. Highs will be 5-10 degrees below normal, or in the low to mid 70s in the lower valleys. Isolated showers will develop along and north of a Baker City to McCall line today, closer to the center of the upper trough.
- Gusty northwest winds are expected behind a cold front tonight, with advisory criteria possible for a short time.
321 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024 A couple of lingering isolated showers and storms will be possible later this evening as global guidance continues to highlight a disturbance in the southern Gulf beneath the ridge. With skies clearing and high boundary layer moisture, lows will only fall into the low to mid 70s across our CWA. Hot conditions will continue heading into Sunday as the ridge remains in place over the southeast CONUS. The ridge will begin to shift eastward by Sunday afternoon allowing for S/SE low-level flow to draw tropical moisture into the area.
1207 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024 (The rest of today ) Current forecast looks in good shape going into the afternoon 850 mb temps a little cooler than those observed 24 hours ago, which may result in afternoon max temps a degree or so less than yesterday.
251 PM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024 A strong mid level ridge will develop across the eastern U.
High pressure centered near Georgian Bay this afternoon supporting dry low levels and a light easterly wind component through tonight. High clouds and few mid clouds likely spillover during the next 24 hours as a warm front lifts through through the western Great Lakes. Atmospheric state is currently characterized by a longer wavelength ridge across the north-central tier of CONUS, flanked by a Pacific low descending along the coast of British Columbia and broad upper low over Hudson Bay that has begun to eject east.
A few isolated showers/thunderstorms could still develop in the higher terrain over far northwest Arkansas this afternoon, however coverage will likely remain very limited and more focused just north of area.
Southeasterly flow will increase on Sunday as this high continues to the east coast. As upper level high pressure centered over North Carolina begins to intensify, this flow will draw warmer air north into the region with highs reaching the mid/upper 80s by afternoon.
141 PM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024 High pressure building from the northwest today will pass across Sunday morning and then head offshore by Sunday evening. The high will remain in control through late week. As an upper level trough shifts east this morning, heights rise aloft as an upper ridge builds over the eastern US. At the surface, high pressure builds in from the northwest. The air mass building in will be drier and a bit cooler than the past several days.
With a weak disturbance and trough nearby, winds remain SW'ly for the Treasure Coast terminals, VRB/SSE for Greater Orlando area, and bcmg E/NE for DAB to MLB this afternoon with sea breeze development. Current temperatures are in the low to upper 80s with dew points in the low to mid 70s.
/NEW/ /Through Tomorrow Afternoon/ Another hot day is in store across North and Central Texas with high temperatures expected to top out in the lower to mid 90s. Given the humidity, heat index values are going to run a few degrees warmer than the actual temperature.
622 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024 (This evening through Sunday night) An upper level short wave trough is moving away from the Panhandles into central Kansas. Some isolated thunderstorms may try to make a run at the northwest CWA tonight in association with another short wave trough, so have mentioned some low chances there.
710 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024 A couple of lingering isolated showers and storms will be possible later this evening as global guidance continues to highlight a disturbance in the southern Gulf beneath the ridge. With skies clearing and high boundary layer moisture, lows will only fall into the low to mid 70s across our CWA. Hot conditions will continue heading into Sunday as the ridge remains in place over the southeast CONUS. The ridge will begin to shift eastward by Sunday afternoon allowing for S/SE low-level flow to draw tropical moisture into the area.
718 PM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024 A strong mid level ridge will develop across the eastern U.
943 PM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024 A strong mid level ridge will develop across the eastern U.
The dry low level air mass inhibits any cumulus development through Sunday afternoon while another round of mid and high clouds arrives ahead of a strengthening warm front from mid afternoon into Sunday evening. Southeasterly flow will increase on Sunday as this high continues to the east coast. As upper level high pressure centered over North Carolina begins to intensify, this flow will draw warmer air north into the region with highs reaching the mid/upper 80s by afternoon.
High pressure, drier conditions, and slightly above normal temperatures are then expected through much of the upcoming week. With a weak cold front slowly pushing through the forecast area we will continue to see scattered thunderstorms. Overnight lows remain mild, generally in the low 70s. A stalled frontal boundary should be along a line from the lower CSRA through the Southeastern Midlands on Sunday. It will remain slightly warmer than normal with highs in the lower to mid 90s.
(This afternoon through Sunday) At a glance: - Hottest day of the year (so far) today - Isolated thunderstorms possible today and tomorrow afternoon The key player in the next few days' sensible weather is an amplifying mid-level ridge gradually making its way eastward, taking up residence across the Southeast/ECONUS. Sunday looks to be a few degrees "cooler", with highs in the low-to-mid 90s expected. Isolated thunderstorms are forecast, but ridging aloft -- and associated subsidence -- will inhibit more widespread convective initiation. Sensible differences in temperature under the wedge are unlikely to be felt outside of far northeast Georgia, where highs will be 5-6 degrees lower, in the low-to-mid 80s.
(The rest of tonight) Both surface and mid-level ridging across the Southeast CONUS continues to drive in modest warm air advection into the region this evening. Overnight low temperatures will bottom out the low-mid 70s -- generally about 5-7 degrees warmer than seasonal average.
558 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024 (Tonight) Very hot conditions prevailing across the Tennessee Valley, with temperatures in the low to mid 90s this afternoon -- with heat index values between 94-102 degrees at this hour. The afternoon Cu field will quickly diminish resulting in clear conditions once again with very warm low temperatures in the low to mid 70s -- providing very limited relief to the heat overnight.
Through Sunday, the forecast area will remain in a broad col region between two upper level high pressure centers over Northern Mexico and the Southeast U. To our northwest, an upper level longwave trough is moving onshore the Pacific Northwest. With the ridge to our east and trough to our west, moisture advection will be on the increase early this week in response to the south/southeast low-level flow atop the region. Guidance continues to highlight a weakness in the ridge, spanning from the Gulf of Mexico to the Southern Plains over the first half of this upcoming week.
Low pressure brings cool and showery weather with a chance of thunderstorms today and Sunday.
- Low humidity, cooler mornings, and warm afternoons Friday through the weekend (Today through Friday) Drier air has pushed into much of the Hill Country, I-35 corridor, and Coastal Plains. Expanding high pressure to the northeast allows even drier air to backdoor into the region on Friday, with the moisture pool across the southern Edwards Plateau and Rio Grande being pushed southwest into Mexico.
The high moves overhead tonight, then off to the east beginning Thursday. Cloud cover decreases heading into tonight, due to this building high pressure, and also with eventual loss of diurnal heating. And we are starting the day cooler than yesterday. Temps will rebound, somewhat warmer than today, with highs near 60f to the lower 60s. An upper trof now over the northern Canadian Rockies will dig toward the Great Lakes and amplify. By Friday evening, we will have a closed low pretty much overhead. This will keep our weekend cooler and more unsettled than earlier hoped for.
- Upper-level ridge will expand back over the region this weekend with warmer temperatures and southerly winds returning. The push of noticeably drier air behind the recent cold front has been slightly delayed, but the latest sfc obs indicate dew points in the 50s just north of our region. NW flow aloft will maintain slightly milder conditions through Friday, but the upper-level ridge will really begin to expand back eastward into our region throughout this weekend.
1200 AM CDT Thu Oct 9 2025 - Temperatures slowly warm over the next few days with a few locations in western MO reaching the low 80s by Friday.
- Dry weather conditions with cooler mornings will prevail through this weekend. In the wake of a weak cold front, drier air is already advecting into our region and will continue to do so through the weekend as upper ridging builds just west of our area. Though this dry regime will still allow for seasonably warm days, with highs ranging from near normal to slightly above normal, it will also make for cooler overnights and mornings. Cooler, meaning.
130 AM EDT Thu Oct 9 2025 Canadian high pressure will build across the Middle Atlantic through Friday.
138 AM EDT Thu Oct 9 2025 Canadian high pressure will build across the Middle Atlantic through Friday.
Updated at 1144 PM CDT Wed Oct 8 2025 - High pressure will build into the region bringing cooler temperatures for the remainder of the week.
354 AM EDT Thu Oct 9 2025 High pressure through Friday night.
Despite the cool start, temperatures will be able to warm into the low 70s again today thanks to plenty of sunshine and mixing to 850 mb where temperatures are still in the upper single digits to around 10C. The trailing cold front will sweep through the upper Mississippi Valley overnight, combining with a ribbon of moisture and the low- level jet across western Missouri to spawn showers and an isolated thunderstorm. Hi-res and global ensembles continue to show the highest probabilities for precipitation across western Missouri, and uncertainty remains in how much these ingredients will overlap over our CWA. Aloft the mid-level ridge will persist across the central CONUS, setting up what will become an Omega Block over the weekend.
- Drier airmass will bring even lower humidities and cooler overnight lows to the region for the last part of the work week into the weekend. An even drier airmass will begin backdooring into the region late in the day and overnight as broad, strong surface ridging centered over the Great Lakes expands southward. The main impact most folks will recognize however is noticeably cooler nighttime and morning temperatures for the remainder of the work week and into the weekend. Daytime highs may be a few degrees cooler, but still above seasonable norms. In the mid and upper levels, strong ridging isn't going anywhere anytime soon.
Temperatures have remained cooler where cloud cover has been thicker, but expect most areas to make it into the 70s by later this afternoon, with some 80s across southern OK (where greater insolation is occurring). Ware (Thursday through Friday night) Upper ridging will amplify and build eastward to finish out the week, marking a gradual warming trend for the area. No precipitation is forecast during this period as the ridge dominates.
613 AM EDT Thu Oct 9 2025 A high pressure system will shift east across the region through Friday, leading to dry conditions. A weak low pressure system will drop down across the Great Lakes this weekend.
Today, showers will continue to rotate around the east side of the low, remaining largely confined to the Cascades and their east slopes as the upper low retrogrades (moves westward).
Updated at 548 AM EDT Thu Oct 9 2025 - Breezy northeast winds behind a wedge front usher in mostly cloudy and cooler conditions today with a couple of isolated showers not out of the question. - Cooler and breezy conditions persist on Friday. Friday will bring the coolest highs of the week with some areas struggling to reach 70 degrees and the remainder of the area in the low-to-mid 70s.
626 AM CDT Thu Oct 9 2025 Updated at 623 AM CDT Thu Oct 9 2025 - Patchy fog is possible over the southern Texas Panhandle through the morning hours, otherwise warmer and drier today compared to yesterday. - Possible elevated fire weather concerns this weekend due to warmer temperatures and breezy southerly winds.
(Rest of Today and Tonight) High pressure will remain the dominating influence today in the wake of a cold front that has brought cooler temperatures and drier conditions to the area.
With increasing moisture at 850 mb shower chances will increase until the moisture meets up with the upper low in eastern, northeast MN into Ontario tonight. Cold front will move through this evening as the upper low tracks southeast with brief cold advection. Winds in MN fcst area 10-20 mph, gusty this morning/midday but a bit less in the afternoon But with the south wind dew points increase today so RH values stay 45 to 50 percent values on the low end in NW/WC MN. Over the weekend there will be a large upper trough moving eastward over the western half of the US and Canada.
706 AM CDT Thu Oct 9 2025 - Dry weather conditions with cooler mornings will prevail through this weekend. In the wake of a weak cold front, drier air is already advecting into our region and will continue to do so through the weekend as upper ridging builds just west of our area. Though this dry regime will still allow for seasonably warm days, with highs ranging from near normal to slightly above normal, it will also make for cooler overnights and mornings. Cooler, meaning.
525 AM EDT Thu Oct 9 2025 Dry and cooler conditions will continue into the upcoming weekend with high pressure in control.
A cold front and compact upper low bring a medium to high chance (40-60%) of rain tonight through Friday night. Amounts will generally be around a quarter of an inch or less, with the highest forecast totals across far northern and northeast WI where NBM probabilities of at least a quarter inch range from 30-50%. High pressure builds back for most of the weekend. Then, deep troughing develops across the western CONUS late this weekend with a strong upper jet stretching from the Four Corners Region to the Great Lakes.
600 AM EDT Thu Oct 9 2025 Canadian high pressure will build across the Middle Atlantic through Friday.
743 AM EDT Thu Oct 9 2025 Dry and cooler conditions will continue into the upcoming weekend with high pressure in control.
610 AM CDT Thu Oct 9 2025 Updated at 609 AM CDT Thu Oct 9 2025 - High pressure will build into the region bringing cooler temperatures for the remainder of the week.
649 AM CDT Thu Oct 9 2025 - Drier airmass will bring even lower humidities and cooler overnight lows to the region for the last part of the work week into the weekend. An even drier airmass will begin backdooring into the region late in the day and overnight as broad, strong surface ridging centered over the Great Lakes expands southward. The main impact most folks will recognize however is noticeably cooler nighttime and morning temperatures for the remainder of the work week and into the weekend. Daytime highs may be a few degrees cooler, but still above seasonable norms. In the mid and upper levels, strong ridging isn't going anywhere anytime soon.
705 AM EDT Thu Oct 9 2025 High pressure through Friday night.
557 AM CDT Thu Oct 9 2025 -A cooler and drier airmass will be in place across Arkansas through the end of the workweek.
520 AM EDT Thu Oct 9 2025 Strong high pressure over the eastern Great Lakes today will drift to New England Friday, with dry and cool weather. There will be widespread frost tonight through Friday morning, with below freezing temperatures in some of the typical colder inland locations.
High pressure is building in today with lighter winds than yesterday and cooler than normal temps by close to 10 degrees.
541 AM CDT Thu Oct 9 2025 - Low humidity, cooler mornings, and warm afternoons Friday through the weekend (Today through Friday) Drier air has pushed into much of the Hill Country, I-35 corridor, and Coastal Plains. Expanding high pressure to the northeast allows even drier air to backdoor into the region on Friday, with the moisture pool across the southern Edwards Plateau and Rio Grande being pushed southwest into Mexico.
132 PM EDT Thu Oct 9 2025 Cooler and drier air moves into the region today behind the cold front with gusty northeast winds. Cooler, drier and breezy conditions expected into Friday. Key message(s): - Cooler, drier, and breezy. Strong high pressure centered over the eastern Great Lakes this afternoon is causing a tight low level pressure gradient across the area, supporting breezy conditions out of the northeast.
200 PM EDT Thu Oct 9 2025 Canadian high pressure will build across the Middle Atlantic through Friday.
Updated at 222 PM CDT Thu Oct 9 2025 - Possible elevated fire weather concerns this weekend due to warmer temperatures and breezy southerly winds.
With a stationary low pressure system over the Pacific Ocean, this has influenced the upslope flow to develop showers and increase cloud coverage over the portions of the Foothills Northern Blues Mtns-OR and Northwest Blues for this morning. Today, showers will continue to rotate around the east side of the low, remaining largely confined to the Cascades and their east slopes as the upper low retrogrades (moves westward).
Looking aloft, broad ridging remains in place over the Central CONUS (a weak embedded disturbance is passing through the ridge and now over northern Alabama but will have no sensible impact on our weather in the short-term).
Areas of frost and sub-freezing temperatures are expected tonight into Friday morning.
Radar and satellite analysis depicts cyclonic flow saddling the Florida Keys, with mean low-level northeast to easterlies in the Lower Keys and east to southeasterlies in the Upper Keys associated with a slowly moving inverted trough.
Updated at 130 PM CDT Thu Oct 9 2025 - Cooler and drier weather expected through this weekend.
Chances are the highest across eastern and southern Iowa.
Cooler and drier conditions will return by tomorrow as the area is sandwiched between a developing coastal low to our east and a strengthening ridge of high pressure to our west.
124 PM CDT Thu Oct 9 2025 - Dry weather conditions with cooler mornings will prevail through this weekend. In the wake of a weak cold front, drier air is already advecting into our region and will continue to do so through the weekend as upper ridging builds just west of our area. Though this dry regime will still allow for seasonably warm days, with highs ranging from near normal to slightly above normal, it will also make for cooler overnights and mornings. Cooler, meaning.