Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
The cold front associated with the large low pressure system off the Pacific Northwest coast is already causing showers and thunderstorms to develop across central Idaho. The low pressure system will track over the top of the Northern Rockies this weekend, causing significantly cooler temperatures as most valleys will be in the 60s and 70s. The evolution of the low pressure system will cause moisture to become fairly limited.
High pressure will continue to build into the area, with strong subsidence reinforcing this dry air mass. Good setup for radiational cooling in this dry air mass -- with lows falling back into the lower 60s in most locations by early Saturday morning.
347 PM EDT Fri Aug 23 2024 High pressure will build across and offshore the middle Atlantic through the weekend. High pressure to the north and weak low pressure along the coast will ensure a cooling NE breeze into this evening. Cloudiness with the offshore low pressure will mainly stay along the coast. High pressure will continue to dominate the region through Saturday night centered almost directly overhead. Highs Saturday will be in the lower to mid 80s.
(This evening through Saturday) High pressure will stay to the northeast of the area with east to northeasterly flow through the short term. Temperatures on Saturday will be a few degrees warmer than they are today.
/Issued 146 PM CDT Fri Aug 23 2024/ /Through Saturday/ A few showers and storms continue to skirt our southeast border as they wrap around the outer edge of a persistent mid-level ridge. The core of the high will shift north on Saturday, reducing afternoon temperatures and heat index values regionwide. /NEW/ /Saturday Night Onward/ The persistent mid level ridge providing the hot streak will become displaced to the north of the region at the start of the period as an easterly wave moves inland over South Texas.
443 PM EDT Fri Aug 23 2024 High pressure in place across the region with below average temperatures will gradually shift offshore into this weekend, yielding a return to near average temperatures.
This has lowered the high temperatures very slightly in some areas, but there are overall minimal changes to the forecast. Dry weather and slightly warmer today, but near normal temperatures. Discussion: Current satellite imagery shows a few spots of patchy fog this morning, mainly north of I-40 where temperatures are cooler. Ridge of high pressure to our west shifts slightly further east today. This will result in another dry day, along with slightly warmer temperatures compared to yesterday. Even with the warmer temps, temperatures will still be near normal.
During the day on Saturday, expansion of ridging and continued high pressure will keep the region dry and continue a warming trend.
With high pressure remaining overhead, expect another pleasant night with clear to mostly clear skies (outside of some high cirrus in the SE) and light winds. Overnight lows will be a little warmer than the last few nights as dew points have crept back up to the upper 50s and lower 60s. Key Messages: - High pressure slowly translates offshore this weekend with moderating temperatures.
230 PM EDT Fri Aug 23 2024 High pressure will settle along the Middle Atlantic Coast today.
325 PM EDT Fri Aug 23 2024 High pressure will settle along the Middle Atlantic Coast today.
158 PM MDT Fri Aug 23 2024 Strong and gusty south winds will occur through the day today as a warm front lifts north across the Northern Rockies. This warm front will bring well above normal temperatures to most of Southwest through North Central Montana, in addition to the threat for showers and thunderstorms. An active weather day is in progress across North Central, Central, and Southwestern Montana today as an unusually strong upper level trough moves through the area. As we head into the day on Saturday, cooler air will filter into the area in the wake of todayâs active weather, resulting in high temperatures around 5-10 degrees cooler than what we will see today.
1212 PM CDT Fri Aug 23 2024 (Today and tonight) Water Vapor imagery currently shows the upper level high dominating over the great Lone Star State early this morning. By this afternoon the upper level ridge and high pressure will track slightly eastward, leading to a slight decrease in height values this afternoon.
133 PM PDT Fri Aug 23 2024 Cooler conditions with dry weather expected this weekend.
A Pacific northwest trough has brought some dry air aloft in from the west, which has trimmed up precipitation chances today over western Pima, with best chances mainly near and east of Tucson-Nogales. Increased shear due to the proximity of the Pacific trough will allow for a few thunderstorms to produce potentially severe hail, along with heavy rainfall rates despite the modest decrease in atmospheric moisture aloft. Tomorrow, as the PNW trough moves inland towards the Great Basin, divergence aloft over southeastern Arizona increases under the right exit region of an ejecting jet streak.
300 PM EDT Fri Aug 23 2024 Fair weather is forecast to continue through Saturday with a return to warmer, summer like temperatures.
A very organized wave will rotate around the upper low tonight across NorCal. looks like the timing of the Flash Flood Watch is good with what's left of the upper low slides out of the area in the afternoon.
323 PM EDT Fri Aug 23 2024 High pressure in place across the region with below average temperatures will gradually shift offshore into this weekend, yielding a return to near average temperatures.
This convection is being enhanced with a returning warm front across NE TX and N LA with quite a dewpoint gradient either side of this boundary, not to mention the well defined, diurnally driven cu field in the warm, moist air south of the returning boundary with isolated convection ongoing across this region as well. Held onto isolated pops through the early evening hours this evening but otherwise, we should stray dry overnight with warmer overnight temperatures with values mostly ranging through the 70s.
CAMS are in good agreement that the thunderstorms from earlier tonight will move east of highway 183 by 12z this morning, as mid level temperatures start to warm behind an upper level trough crossing western Kansas. In addition to the warmer temperatures today, we will be monitoring the potential for a few isolated thunderstorms late this afternoon and early evening along a surface boundary situated across west central Kansas. ensemble clusters from earlier this morning indicate that an upper high, centered over southwest Oklahoma and north central Texas, will remain nearly stationary over the next few days as the unseasonably warm 850mb temperatures continue to spread into southwest Kansas, according to the latest 850mb NAEFS and ECMWF temperature percentiles.
932 AM PDT Fri Aug 23 2024 Cooler conditions with dry weather expected this weekend.
1115 AM CDT Fri Aug 23 2024 (Rest of Today) Tranquil weather across the Tennessee Valley as a strong ridge of high pressure builds in from the west.
1141 AM EDT Fri Aug 23 2024 High pressure will settle along the Middle Atlantic Coast today.
306 PM EDT Fri Aug 23 2024 High pressure centered east of the region will result in a continued warming trend along with dry conditions. High pressure centered over Pennsylvania is certain to keep dry weather across the ILN area tonight. Dry weather is forecast to continue through Saturday night as high pressure moves gradually east.
(Tonight through Saturday night) High pressure over TX/OK is lifting slightly north to allow for some more moist and unstable air to work around it's southern periphery over South Central TX. The ridge isn't far enough north to promote much more than isolated PoPs and the rains should end by mid evening. Slightly lower temps have come with this influx of moisture, clouds, and weak vorticity, and it looks like today with finish on the low side of heat advisory criteria.
Some larger cumulus elements could grow to the inversion level and produce a sprinkle, especially across the higher elevations. Otherwise, mostly fair conditions continue with temperatures topping out in the low 70s to low 80s. Temperatures this morning in the low to upper 50s, with a few locations in higher terrain in the 40s.
1233 PM CDT Fri Aug 23 2024 (Today through Saturday) Our region continues to reside on the eastern side of an upper level ridge centered over the Red River Valley. Downstream, the east coast trough is forecast to pinch off and drift southward over the Gulf of Mexico. This feature will gradually slide west through the short term, which with the cooler upper levels could bring an uptick of showers and storms, especially over the Gulf Waters through Saturday. With the cooler upper levels associated with the drop in heights and thicknesses, think there could be a small hail potential with the more robust updrafts on Saturday.
200 PM EDT Fri Aug 23 2024 High pressure will settle along the Middle Atlantic Coast today.
This will wrap northwesterly winds gusting into the 30s for locating north and east of Billings on the backside of the low.
Stalled front lingers near to north of central FL, with high pressure extending off of the eastern U. Temps aloft have also come in a little cooler today, around -8 to -9C at 500mb, so small hail may be possible in any stronger convection as well.
After several days of below normal temperatures, warmer weather returns to the region this afternoon as highs reach the lower 90s.
While the region will still be under the influence of mid/upper level ridging, the center of the ridge will continue to shift further away and result in high temperatures closer to seasonal normals on Saturday.
Over the weekend the upper level high that is centered over Oklahoma will begin to migrate and expand across the entire south and central United States, being centered over the Ozarks.
This activity, courtesy of weak disturbances tracking east-to-west along the southern per- iphery of the the main mid/upper ridge (situated over the Southern Plains), should be dissipating around sunset. Overnight lows will be a few degrees cooler tonight (mostly in the mid 70s. This quiet pattern will continue into tomorrow night with lows mostly in the lower to mid 70s once again (central and north) to the upper 70s and around 80 at the beaches.
255 PM EDT Fri Aug 23 2024 Fair weather is forecast to continue through Saturday with a return to warmer, summer like temperatures.
(Tonight) An upper level ridge is sitting squarely over the area, which has allowed temperatures to warm up considerably over yesterday. Low temperatures tonight will be much warmer than last night, generally in the low to mid 70s. (Saturday through Friday) Strong upper level ridging will remain in place the next few days, with the center of the ridge gradually drifting northeastward.
1202 PM CDT Fri Aug 23 2024 (Tonight through Saturday night) Mid-level ridge gradually shifts north/northwest today allowing for moisture to continue to increase into the region. A weak midlevel disturbance rotates around the ridge tonight, and cant rule out an isolated shower/storm but will keep PoPs low.
(Today through Saturday) The mid-level ridge that has dominated the forecast has inched to the northwest today, increasing moisture over the area. A weak mid-level disturbance will rotate around the southern periphery of the ridge tonight which will keep a low chance of showers and thunderstorms in the forecast. With the ridge shifting slightly, temperatures will finally drop to below record levels.
429 PM EDT Fri Aug 23 2024 High pressure will settle along the Mid-Atlantic Coast today.
What remains of the cold front to the north likely to remain north of Lake Superior through Saturday. though another short wave trough will dig southeast and at least clip Lake Superior and possibly far eastern Upper Saturday afternoon. may not be much instability so will confine PoPs to above the bridge for Saturday.
Short wave trough extending from a deep upper low on the Oregon coast pivoted northward through our CWA this afternoon and evening with showers, thunderstorms, and gusty outflow winds in eastern Oregon and western-most Idaho. The trough was moving into Washington this evening and weather was calming down in our CWA. Cool air has already reached our CWA but even cooler air will come in Saturday as the main upper low moves inland. Showers will increase Saturday and Saturday evening but with only a slight chance of thunderstorms as cooler air will already be in place near the surface.
As winds decouple overnight, radiational cooling underneath mostly clear skies will bring overnight low temperatures down to the low to mid 60s.
913 PM EDT Fri Aug 23 2024 High pressure in place across the region with below average temperatures will gradually shift offshore into this weekend, yielding a return to near average temperatures.
1045 PM EDT Fri Aug 23 2024 High pressure will remain in control for most of the weekend with weak thermal troughs setting up across the area each afternoon.
623 PM CDT Fri Aug 23 2024 (Tonight through Saturday night) High pressure over TX/OK is lifting slightly north to allow for some more moist and unstable air to work around it's southern periphery over South Central TX. The ridge isn't far enough north to promote much more than isolated PoPs and the rains should end by mid evening. Slightly lower temps have come with this influx of moisture, clouds, and weak vorticity, and it looks like today with finish on the low side of heat advisory criteria.
741 PM EDT Fri Aug 23 2024 High pressure will settle along the Mid-Atlantic Coast today.
814 PM CDT Fri Aug 23 2024 High pressure continues to dominate the area, leading to quiet weather conditions tonight and tomorrow for Middle TN. Hot conditions are on tap again tomorrow as areas west of the Plateau climb into the low and mid 90s. We are starting to feel the influence of the ridge aloft that is currently over Texas and Oklahoma. With that, today's conditions will be nearly identical as the last 2 days, except just a touch warmer - passing clouds with a warm, southerly breeze. Saturday looks more of the same with even warmer temperatures as the ridge continues to push east. For those who will be participating in any outdoor activities this weekend, dew point temperatures fortunately continue to stay on the lower side, ranging from the upper 50s to low 60s.
We are currently sandwiched between a rather stout high pressure to our north and a subtle upper low/trough progressing across the northern Gulf. This drier air is expected to persist through Saturday as the low move westward and the ridge builds to our north. Given the lower moisture values across the area, expect yet another dry day across the area.
943 PM EDT Fri Aug 23 2024 High pressure centered east of the region will result in a continued warming trend along with dry conditions.
855 PM EDT Fri Aug 23 2024 High pressure will build across and offshore the middle Atlantic through the weekend. Compared to last night, overnight lows should average 1-2 degrees warmer. Lows 55-60, except for some lower 50s in the cooler locations. Cirrus clouds associated with the cut-off low over the Florida Panhandle and associated broad troughiness over the SE US will result in partly to mostly cloud skies across eastern NC. High pressure will continue to dominate the region through Saturday night centered almost directly overhead. Highs Saturday will be in the lower to mid 80s.
High pressure remains over the area tonight, leading to another pleasant night with clear to mostly clear skies (outside of some high cirrus in the SE) and light winds. Will also likely see some cirrus across the N/NW later tonight as a weak disturbance slides through the lower Great Lakes. Overnight lows will be a little warmer than the last few nights as dew points have crept back up to the upper 50s and lower 60s. Key Messages: - High pressure slowly translates offshore this weekend with moderating temperatures.
720 PM EDT Fri Aug 23 2024 High pressure will build across and offshore the middle Atlantic through the weekend. High pressure to the north and weak low pressure along the coast will ensure a cooling NE breeze into this evening. Cloudiness with the offshore low pressure will mainly stay along the coast. High pressure will continue to dominate the region through Saturday night centered almost directly overhead. Highs Saturday will be in the lower to mid 80s.
Have therefore undercut NBM min temps slightly in favor of the cooler MAV guidance. Daybreak readings should range from the mid and upper 40s in the coolest hollows of the Alleghenies, to the mid and upper 50s across the Lower Susq Valley.
Currently along the Keys island chain, temperatures are in the lower to mid 80s, with dewpoints in the mid to upper 70s, and winds from the NE to E around 10 mph. Aloft, a mid/upper level trough lies over the eastern Gulf of Mexico.
934 PM CDT Fri Aug 23 2024 Temperatures across the Mid-South range from the lower 70s to mid 80s under mostly clear skies.
752 PM EDT Fri Aug 23 2024 High pressure will remain in control for most of the weekend with weak thermal troughs setting up across the area each afternoon.
736 PM EDT Fri Aug 23 2024 Fair weather is forecast to continue through Saturday with a return to warmer, summer like temperatures.
948 PM EDT Fri Aug 23 2024 High pressure will remain in control for most of the weekend with weak thermal troughs setting up across the area each afternoon.
Slightly cooler overnight temperatures are expected tomorrow night with most locations in the lower to mid 70s. /Issued 302 PM CDT Fri Aug 23 2024/ /Saturday Night Onward/ The persistent mid level ridge providing the hot streak will become displaced to the north of the region at the start of the period as an easterly wave moves inland over South Texas.
700 PM EDT Fri Aug 23 2024 High pressure in place across the region with below average temperatures will gradually shift offshore into this weekend, yielding a return to near average temperatures.
- Breezy conditions are expected Saturday afternoon ahead of an approaching cold front.
606 PM CDT Fri Aug 23 2024 (Today through Saturday) The mid-level ridge that has dominated the forecast has inched to the northwest today, increasing moisture over the area. A weak mid-level disturbance will rotate around the southern periphery of the ridge tonight which will keep a low chance of showers and thunderstorms in the forecast. With the ridge shifting slightly, temperatures will finally drop to below record levels.
941 PM EDT Fri Aug 23 2024 Besides patchy fog and low-clouds, mainly near area lakes and streams, clear sky overnight with calm winds due to upper/surface ridging. During the day on Saturday, expansion of ridging and continued high pressure will keep the region dry and continue a warming trend.
711 PM EDT Fri Aug 23 2024 High pressure centered east of the region will result in a continued warming trend along with dry conditions. High pressure centered over Pennsylvania is certain to keep dry weather across the ILN area tonight. Dry weather is forecast to continue through Saturday night as high pressure moves gradually east.
645 PM CDT Fri Aug 23 2024 (This evening through Saturday) Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and early evening, as a weak disturbance rotates around the periphery of the upper level ridge. There remains some uncertainty on the extent of coverage this afternoon, which upper level ridging working to suppress convection.
316 AM EDT Sat Aug 24 2024 High pressure remains in place across the region through this weekend with near normal temperatures and dry conditions.
Forecast daytime high temperatures will be a couple degrees warmer each day -- topping out in the mid to upper 80s this afternoon and near 90 on Sunday.
High pressure to our north will continue to keep the area dry. On Sunday the area of high pressure expands and pwats decrease in the southeast.
852 PM PDT Fri Aug 23 2024 Cooler conditions with dry weather expected this weekend.
1220 AM CDT Sat Aug 24 2024 (Tonight through Saturday night) High pressure over TX/OK is lifting slightly north to allow for some more moist and unstable air to work around it's southern periphery over South Central TX. The ridge isn't far enough north to promote much more than isolated PoPs and the rains should end by mid evening. Slightly lower temps have come with this influx of moisture, clouds, and weak vorticity, and it looks like today with finish on the low side of heat advisory criteria.
It turns cooler for Saturday and Sunday, with Sunday likely being the coolest days.
334 AM EDT Sat Aug 24 2024 High pressure builds over the area into early Sunday.
104 AM CDT Sat Aug 24 2024 Unfortunately, the more humid air has returned back N across the region, evident in dewpoints having returned to the lower/mid 70s. Thus, warmer and more humid conditions are expected tonight despite a mostly clear sky, as the region lingers from the Ern Seaboard SW into Cntrl LA overnight. However, the evening satellite imagery indicates that some cu have redeveloped along the Wrn periphery of the ridge axis over portions of N LA/extreme Ern TX into Srn AR, which should persist overnight.
To the west, dewpoints increase to the lower 70s. Despite the enhanced low level lift, rain chances still continue to be on the low side with POPs again below climo. Our region continues to reside on the eastern periphery of the ~598dam H5 ridge over the Red River. An east coast trough continues to our east, however, this trough will be moving out shortly leaving behind a weak ULL across northeast Gulf of Mexico.
131 AM EDT Sat Aug 24 2024 High pressure will build across and offshore the middle Atlantic through the weekend. Compared to last night, overnight lows should average 1-2 degrees warmer. Lows 55-60, except for some lower 50s in the cooler locations. Cirrus clouds associated with the cut-off low over the Florida Panhandle and associated broad troughiness over the SE US will result in partly to mostly cloud skies across eastern NC. High pressure will continue to dominate the region through Saturday night centered almost directly overhead. Highs Saturday will be in the lower to mid 80s.
Minimal adjustments required with the forecast verifying well under high pressure. Previous We've got a quiet period of weather on tap across the North Country with high pressure expected to be in control of our weather through Saturday night. Fair weather cumulus has been widespread across the higher terrain given steep lapse rates between 4000 and 8000 ft but a capping subsidence inversion above 8000 ft is preventing this cumulus from trying to develop into rain showers. Temperatures will be a few degrees warmer tomorrow than today with highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s.
Farther inland, expect Saturday to be another dry day owing to the area's closer proximity to the retreating upper level high. By Sunday the high should have retreated far enough to allow at least isolated afternoon showers and storms to develop (fingers crossed). Afternoon highs will be fairly steady, topping out in the low to mid 90s each day.
A splitting Pacific trough meanders through the Northern Rockies over the weekend with cooler temperatures (valley highs in the 70s/low 80s for north-central Idaho and upper 60s/mid 70s across western Montana).
227 AM MDT Sat Aug 24 2024 Temperatures trend cooler through the weekend, with low end chances for showers and thunderstorms persisting over the next couple afternoons and evenings. Snow level drop enough to result in a dusting of snow in the highest elevations of Southwest Montana Sunday night.
1223 AM CDT Sat Aug 24 2024 (This evening through Saturday) Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and early evening, as a weak disturbance rotates around the periphery of the upper level ridge. There remains some uncertainty on the extent of coverage this afternoon, which upper level ridging working to suppress convection.
Mid-level moisture will rotate around the large upper high over northern Texas today and spread across northwestern Oklahoma this afternoon. Additionally, there will be the warm front mixing northward into Kansas that could provide a bit of surface confluence.