Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
(Today and tonight) Upper level trough across the Southwest US will approach West Central Texas tonight, increasing lift and helping develop scattered convection across the area. Until then, decent amount of cloud cover across the area will help keep temperatures close to normal readings with high mainly in the lower to mid 70s. Warmest areas will be across the Big Country that will see a little more sun, with a little cooler conditions across the I-10 corridor that will see a little thicker mid level clouds.
1147 PM MDT Tue Mar 19 2024 - Warmer weather, with occasional scattered light mountain snow showers this upcoming week.
415 AM EDT Wed Mar 20 2024 Breezy and dry conditions are expected today as high pressure begins to build into the Ohio Valley. Temperatures will turn much cooler tonight into Thursday as the high pressure becomes established over the region.
1223 AM CDT Wed Mar 20 2024 Evening RAP/water vapor analysis indicate longwave trough axis swinging off the east coast, while upper low over the Desert Southwest-Baja Peninsula has begun to phase into the longwave pattern. Expect lows in the low 40s northwest of the Natchez Trace corridor while mid-upper 30s along & to the southeast. /DC/ Tonight and Tomorrow: High pressure will remain over the region yielding clear and cool conditions through Wednesday. We could still see a little bit of frost across the northeastern portions of the CWA tonight, but widespread frost and freezing temperatures are not expected. We will warm up a bit for Wednesday reaching the lower 70s across the forecast area.
The low will continue to move towards the region today leading to lee cyclogenesis in northeastern New Mexico. However, upper-level lift will be delayed until the early evening hours as the low remains across western New Mexico.
(Today and tonight) Moisture advection continues throughout northern Texas and into Oklahoma, with current surface dewpoints gradually increasing into the low 40s across most of the region. As the upper level cyclone continues to shift eastward through Arizona/New Mexico into the Texas panhandle, upper level support and cooling will continue to increase for the development of showers and storms.
Mornings will continue to offer cloudy skies and pockets of fog specifically on the coast and in the lower valleys. The mild weather pattern turns cooler and wetter as cold front brings periods of light to moderate rain and cooler temperatures through the weekend. For the rest of the region, temperatures continue to remain warm with highs in the upper 50s to mid 60s along the coast to the low to mid 70s inland.
Tonight will be another clear night but a bit warmer in the upper 30s to lower 40s. Highs will range from the lower 60s north of I-44 and the lower 70s south of I-44.
Flow aloft across the region will become more zonal through the period, as a closed low over the desert southwest phases with the longwave pattern. Meanwhile at the surface, high pressure centered just south of the CWA will remain in control of our weather today. This will keep west to southwesterly winds over the forecast area today, with slightly warmer conditions expected. /19/ High pressure will keep things dry to start on Wednesday and temperatures should return to seasonal norms.
High pressure is stretched out over the Coastal Bend and up into Southeast Texas. The winds with this high are generally light and out of the northeast, but the winds are expected to turn east by the afternoon, and then southeast as the high moves more to the Florida Panhandle (12z/Wed). 25" (which is about the 80th percentile for this time of year) causing the clouds to lower and getting the lower levels to saturate. That is until after 00z/Thu when 500 mb trough, that has been a cut off low in Arizona, moves into northern Mexico as an open trough, producing an area of low pressure in eastern New Mexico and West Texas.
122 AM MDT Wed Mar 20 2024 - High pressure hangs around today, with mild temperatures and clear skies.
Temperatures along the island chain range from the upper 60s to lower 70s, with pleasant dewpoints in the lower to mid 60s, and winds on land from the NE to E at 5 to 10 mph. Surface analysis depicts high pressure centered along the northern Gulf coast. Aloft, broad troughing lies along the U.
Low levels remain dry so expect little in the way of precipitation to reach the ground until possibly later in the afternoon when more robust development should be tied to the approaching weak cold front.
857 AM EDT Wed Mar 20 2024 Breezy and dry conditions are expected today as high pressure begins to build into the Ohio Valley. Temperatures will turn much cooler tonight into Thursday as the high pressure becomes established over the region.
614 AM CDT Wed Mar 20 2024 - Cooler today with breezy northeasterly winds this morning into mid afternoon.
638 AM CDT Wed Mar 20 2024 (Today and tonight) Moisture advection continues throughout northern Texas and into Oklahoma, with current surface dewpoints gradually increasing into the low 40s across most of the region. As the upper level cyclone continues to shift eastward through Arizona/New Mexico into the Texas panhandle, upper level support and cooling will continue to increase for the development of showers and storms.
458 AM CDT Wed Mar 20 2024 - Cooler today with highs in the 40s and 50s and breezy northeast winds this morning. Today will be cooler as a backdoor cold front has moved through the area this morning.
Courtesy of the continued influence of high pressure in our region, look for another seasonably warm and dry day today with plenty of sunshine and highs in the 50s/60s.
Max temperatures will warm steadily into the afternoon back near to just below normal daytime highs in the low to mid 70s inland to near 70 along the Atlantic coast where a mid afternoon east coast sea breeze will begin to shift inland.
(Today through Thursday afternoon) Latest model guidance has slowed the timing of the positively tilted trough as it moves east across the southern Great Plains. Additional activity may be possible around the higher elevations of the Davis Mountains and Stockton Plateau. The cold temperatures aloft may be enough to generate high-based showers, especially across the higher elevations of the Davis Mountains to Stockton Plateau.
An approaching trough of low pressure will produce wet and unsettled conditions beginning tonight and continuing into the weekend.
622 AM CDT Wed Mar 20 2024 (Today through Thursday afternoon) Latest model guidance has slowed the timing of the positively tilted trough as it moves east across the southern Great Plains. Additional activity may be possible around the higher elevations of the Davis Mountains and Stockton Plateau. The cold temperatures aloft may be enough to generate high-based showers, especially across the higher elevations of the Davis Mountains to Stockton Plateau.
Return flow will support highs in the the low 70s as well as slightly increased moisture reflected in afternoon dew points in the low 40s.
Warm temperatures, sunny skies, and light afternoon breezes expected today and Thursday as a ridge of high pressure sets up overhead.
410 AM CDT Wed Mar 20 2024 - Cooler today with breezy northeasterly winds this morning into mid afternoon.
637 AM CDT Wed Mar 20 2024 - Cooler today with highs in the 40s and 50s and breezy northeast winds this morning. Today will be cooler as a backdoor cold front has moved through the area this morning.
Temperatures trend warmer tonight with values in the L-M50s for most. VFR continuing with light/variable winds, thanks to a weak pressure gradient in place and high pressure overhead.
(Today through Thursday Night) The pattern will become somewhat unsettled in the near term as a cold front heads into northern Arkansas later today and tonight. Given clouds/precipitation, readings will be several degrees cooler on Thursday, but still a bit above seasonal.
537 AM MDT Wed Mar 20 2024 - High pressure hangs around today, with mild temperatures and clear skies.
Otherwise, it will be dry and a little warmer through Thursday. For the weekend, a low pressure system moving inland along the West Coast will bring cooling, stronger and gusty west winds, and periods of showers from the coast to the mountains.
615 AM CDT Wed Mar 20 2024 - Cooler temperatures today.
645 AM EDT Wed Mar 20 2024 Breezy and dry conditions are expected today as high pressure begins to build into the Ohio Valley. Temperatures will turn much cooler tonight into Thursday as the high pressure becomes established over the region.
(Today through Thursday) An upper level trough that's spread across the northeastern quarter of the country will lift northward slightly today. This will allow for the local upper level zonal flow to kink northward and weak ridging to develop.
Today will mark the beginning of a pattern change as the upper ridge that has brought us dry conditions and well above normal temperatures collapses, allowing for more active weather to return. The aforementioned weak cold front will bring the first round of activity, although the impacts will be modest at best. High temperatures today will cool significantly over those of the past several days, and while they will more closely resemble seasonal norms, highs will still be slightly warmer than normal.
639 AM CDT Wed Mar 20 2024 (Today) Early morning temps are a bit warmer today, currently ranging from the upper 30s to mid 40s as of 2am. Some isolated early morning frost can't be ruled out, especially in cooler areas of higher terrain. WAA will continue today as the Tennessee Valley remains under the influence of broad upper ridging and moist westerly flow.
High pressure will maintain mild and generally dry conditions over Utah and southwest Wyoming Wednesday, while a weak disturbance brings a shower or two for Thursday.
1227 PM CDT Wed Mar 20 2024 (Today and tonight) Upper level trough across the Southwest US will approach West Central Texas tonight, increasing lift and helping develop scattered convection across the area. Until then, decent amount of cloud cover across the area will help keep temperatures close to normal readings with high mainly in the lower to mid 70s. Warmest areas will be across the Big Country that will see a little more sun, with a little cooler conditions across the I-10 corridor that will see a little thicker mid level clouds.
High pressure ridging breaks down today with a decent short wave disturbance pushing through on Thursday morning. The most noticeable changes will be an increase in showers tonight into Thursday with cooler daytime temperatures by Thursday.
143 PM EDT Wed Mar 20 2024 Breezy and dry conditions are expected today as high pressure begins to build into the Ohio Valley. Temperatures will turn much cooler tonight into Thursday as the high pressure becomes established over the region.
Warmer and drier weather then settles in for the end of the week.
1203 PM CDT Wed Mar 20 2024 - Cooler today with highs in the 40s and 50s and breezy northeast winds this morning. Today will be cooler as a backdoor cold front has moved through the area this morning.
328 PM EDT Wed Mar 20 2024 High pressure moves in later tonight, but shot lived through Thursday before exiting Thursday night.
(Tonight) Isolated to scattered showers and storms continue this afternoon across northeast Oklahoma in the vicinity of a cold front near the Kansas/Oklahoma border. (Thursday through Wednesday) As we move into Thursday, the aforementioned frontal boundary will surge back to the north as an upper level low ejects out of the Southwest and across the Southern Plains.
1236 PM CDT Wed Mar 20 2024 (Today through Thursday afternoon) Latest model guidance has slowed the timing of the positively tilted trough as it moves east across the southern Great Plains. Additional activity may be possible around the higher elevations of the Davis Mountains and Stockton Plateau. The cold temperatures aloft may be enough to generate high-based showers, especially across the higher elevations of the Davis Mountains to Stockton Plateau.
Warmer and drier weather then settles in for the end of the week. Low pressure moves eastward into New Mexico today, and moisture begins to decreases across Arizona. These storms look to initially develop over the higher terrain (namely the Mogollon Rim, Chuska Mountains, Santa Maria, and Bradshaw Mountains) then move off the terrain through the afternoon.
Cooler temperatures today with highs in the mid 50s. An approaching trough of low pressure will produce wet and unsettled conditions beginning tonight and continuing into the weekend.
Warm and sunny conditions with light afternoon breezes expected through Thursday as a ridge of high pressure sets up overhead.
Subfreezing air will then quickly spread across the area behind an arctic frontal boundary tonight. Inversion heights come down toward Thursday morning, but flow continues out of the northwest with 850 mb ridge staying to our west.
1232 PM CDT Wed Mar 20 2024 (Today and tonight) Moisture advection continues throughout northern Texas and into Oklahoma, with current surface dewpoints gradually increasing into the low 40s across most of the region. As the upper level cyclone continues to shift eastward through Arizona/New Mexico into the Texas panhandle, upper level support and cooling will continue to increase for the development of showers and storms.
1219 PM CDT Wed Mar 20 2024 (Today through Thursday) An upper level trough that's spread across the northeastern quarter of the country will lift northward slightly today. This will allow for the local upper level zonal flow to kink northward and weak ridging to develop.
(This evening through Thursday Night) A positively-tilted upper trough currently over New Mexico and Arizona will gradually strengthen and become more neutral as it moves into West Texas Thursday morning. While a widespread flooding threat is not expected, large scale ascent will rapidly increase late Thursday as the upper trough strengthens and moves into the ArkLaTex.
1025 AM MDT Wed Mar 20 2024 - High pressure hangs around today, with mild temperatures and clear skies.
An upper level ridge will remain over the area through this afternoon, bringing warm temperatures.
1250 PM CDT Wed Mar 20 2024 - Cooler today with breezy northeasterly winds this morning into mid afternoon.
- Cold low temperatures are in store for tonight, dropping to the low 20s to the upper teens near Hillsdale county.
(Rest of today through Thursday) Subtle mid level ridging will take place across South Florida through the rest of this afternoon and into Thursday. At the surface, high pressure centered over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico and the Florida Peninsula this afternoon will slowly start to shift into the western Atlantic on Thursday.
1215 PM CDT Wed Mar 20 2024 - Cooler temperatures today.
Wintry mix and freezing rain will be possible for areas in NE Iowa and SW Wisconsin.
A mix of sun and clouds with continued relatively cooler temperatures has made for a beautiful and quiet Wednesday.
(Rest of Today and Tonight) Light SSW return flow has continued to advect in warmer moist air from the Gulf. This has allowed Temperatures through 1 PM to reach into the low to mid 60s. With several hours of daytime heating left temperatures are forecast to peak in the mid afternoon in to the low 70s.
(This evening through Thursday) A weak closed low with a positively tilted trough will continue tracking east out of the desert southwest toward our area overnight.
(This evening through Thursday) Late this afternoon, an upper-level trough located over the Desert Southwest was moving toward west Texas. Late this evening and overnight, southerly winds will push dewpoints into the 50s and a weak upper- level impulse should eject eastward from the upper trough. Regardless, the influx of moisture in the low-levels should generate a widespread stratus deck after midnight. Tomorrow, the upper trough should push across western and central Texas. CAPE should reach to around 1000 J/kg by mid-afternoon, just as the center of the upper low passes over west central Texas.
- The best chance (80-90%) of rain continues to be at the start of next work week along a cold front. A cold front has slid south through the forecast area today, resulting in a wide temperature range from central Missouri to the Missouri-Arkansas border. Temperatures along this southern border were able to warm to near 70 before the cold front made it there. The cold front will stall along the Missouri-Arkansas border this afternoon, and continued warm air advection south of the front has a 20% chance of producing light showers along and near the boundary.
Given the dry low level airmass in place, leaned on the cooler side of NBM temperatures for tonight in the low to mid 40s inland to near 50 coast as winds begin to become more NNE along the coast toward daybreak Thu morning.
Another clear and cool night can be expected tonight, but will be around 4-8 degrees warmer than last night with mid 40's along the Nature Coast and low 50's to around 60 for central and southwest Florida. High pressure will move east across the waters with winds remaining below headline criteria through Thursday.
The more progressive Pacific trough has grabbed the cutoff low over the Southwest US, highlighted by the height falls noted over Texas and northwestern Mexico on the 00Z RAOBs.
629 PM CDT Wed Mar 20 2024 (This evening through Thursday) A weak closed low with a positively tilted trough will continue tracking east out of the desert southwest toward our area overnight.
pdf High pressure ridge will prevail over the area Tonight, with only a few high clouds passing through the upper flow expected.
Showers will shift into Valley County/ ID, later tonight as a weak short wave trough moves past.
An approaching trough of low pressure will produce wet and unsettled conditions tonight and continuing into the weekend.
702 PM CDT Wed Mar 20 2024 (Rest of Today and Tonight) Light SSW return flow has continued to advect in warmer moist air from the Gulf. This has allowed Temperatures through 1 PM to reach into the low to mid 60s. With several hours of daytime heating left temperatures are forecast to peak in the mid afternoon in to the low 70s.
601 PM CDT Wed Mar 20 2024 (This evening through Thursday Night) A positively-tilted upper trough currently over New Mexico and Arizona will gradually strengthen and become more neutral as it moves into West Texas Thursday morning. While a widespread flooding threat is not expected, large scale ascent will rapidly increase late Thursday as the upper trough strengthens and moves into the ArkLaTex.
(Thursday through Wednesday) As we move into Thursday, the aforementioned frontal boundary will surge back to the north as an upper level low ejects out of the Southwest and across the Southern Plains.
Another quiet night is ahead although overnight temperatures will be chilly again with locations along the Plateau getting close to freezing.
636 PM CDT Wed Mar 20 2024 (Tonight) Isolated to scattered showers and storms continue this afternoon across northeast Oklahoma in the vicinity of a cold front near the Kansas/Oklahoma border. (Thursday through Wednesday) As we move into Thursday, the aforementioned frontal boundary will surge back to the north as an upper level low ejects out of the Southwest and across the Southern Plains.
At the surface, a modified arctic airmass will continue to spread southeastward into the OH Valley region in the wake of the broader trough across eastern Canada, with a backdoor cold front (marking the leading edge of this airmass) expected to shift southwestward through the local CWFA later this evening.
Thursday will be dry and with slightly cooler temps in the upper 60s along and north of I-40.
Overnight lows are a bit warmer tonight, only dropping into the low to mid 40s through sunrise. Will remain dry today as high pressure lifts to the northeast and our next weather maker slowly pushes east over the southern Plains. Highs will top out in the low 70s this afternoon, although some locations could reach the mid 70s if clouds are slower to move in than currently forecast.
Latest CAMs do show a little better instability redeveloping later this afternoon as the main upper level low moves into the area, with a little more robust convection developing late this afternoon and pushing east across the area through the evening hours. Temperatures only in the low to mid 70s this afternoon so surface instability will be a little limited. However, cold core from the upper low may make it a little easier to get some hail out of the stronger storms. A little drier air mass filters in with the passage of the upper low allowing winds to shift to the north and northwest.
253 AM CDT Thu Mar 21 2024 Zonal flow has setup across the Lower Mississippi River Valley. This, as high pressure at the surface has become centered east of the CWA.
(Today) Initial upper disturbance lifting through north Texas early this morning ahead of main upper low, currently moving into far southwest NM. Scattered showers will likely spread into portions of eastern Oklahoma today with the highest rain chances along and west of Highway 75.
As it does so, the trough will take on a more neutral tilt and swing across the forecast area early this afternoon. This instability combined with nearly straight hodographs and bulk shear values around 20 kts could support some marginally severe hail especially if the higher CAPE values are realized. With the abundant cloud cover and weaker winds, high temperatures will be about 5-10 degrees cooler with high temperatures only warming into the 60s. This will allow for cooler overnight low temperatures ranging from the mid 30s across the southwest Texas Panhandle to the upper 40s across the Rolling Plains.
410 AM EDT Thu Mar 21 2024 Snow ends early this morning in northern and central areas as low pressure tracks through the state.
1244 AM CDT Thu Mar 21 2024 (This evening through Thursday) A weak closed low with a positively tilted trough will continue tracking east out of the desert southwest toward our area overnight.
Quiet for the time being as high pressure temporarily makes a visit causing dry air to consume the region with MinRH today of 15 to 25%.
This will allow temperatures to warm back up into the low to mid 80s this afternoon.
As the upper level trough continues it's slow shift eastward through New Mexico and into the Texas Panhandle, precipitation coverage is expected to increase due to increased moisture advection into the region as well as wide scale destabilizing with the cold air advection aloft around the upper level cyclone. As is usual with these upper level cyclones that are mostly removed from the main flow, timing and speed remains fairly uncertain, and the increase in precipitation will be gradual.
Warmer, drying weather to finish of the work week. Despite it's departure, we won't go through this Thursday totally dry: a weak wave passing to our north combined with leftover moisture and instability driven by diurnal heating will all work together to develop some isolated showers this afternoon along the higher terrain. Friday ridging will shift over the region bringing dry weather with continued warming.
Temperatures were increased a degree or so as we will remain under high pressure influence for nearly all of the daytime heating hours. Highs range in the low to mid 70s.
This will allow temperatures to warm back up into the low to mid 80s this afternoon. This low will lift northeast into the Gulf Coast on Friday, with a preceding warm front moving into the Florida Peninsula Friday afternoon, followed by a cold front Friday evening.
617 AM CDT Thu Mar 21 2024 (Today) Initial upper disturbance lifting through north Texas early this morning ahead of main upper low, currently moving into far southwest NM. Scattered showers will likely spread into portions of eastern Oklahoma today with the highest rain chances along and west of Highway 75.