Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Expect an increase in cirrus beginning overnight Wednesday as weak disturbances round the eastern side of the ridge, but no real sensible impacts will be felt and precipitation chances remain negligible.
Upper level ridge axis is now extending to our east, leaving the region under a southwest flow aloft and southeast winds at the surface. This pattern is favorable for increasing moisture influx across the region and slightly warmer temperatures. In fact, 850mb temperatures will warm into the 10 to 14 degC range, suggesting highs mainly into the low to mid 70s. With mostly cloudy skies, warm and humid southerly winds, highs will climb into the low to mid 70s.
930 AM EST Wed Feb 7 2024 Fair weather and moderating temperatures are expected through Thursday as high pressure remains nearby.
541 AM EST Wed Feb 7 2024 High pressure maintains dry weather through Thursday.
524 AM CST Wed Feb 7 2024 (Today through Thursday Night) Another dry day is expected this Wed as an upper ridge moves east over the state. The upper ridge will have shifted east by this evening.
The highest rain chances (60-80%) will be on Thursday.
(Rest of Today) High pressure just to the east of the region will continue to promote a mostly clear sky today as our winds gradually veer to the southeast by this afternoon. We can expect another very similar day to the previous couple days as ample sunshine and a dry boundary layer will allow temperatures to climb into the low to mid 60s in most locations once again by the afternoon.
(Today through Thursday) High pressure will move across the area today leading to clear to mostly clear skies. Temperatures are forecast to be in the low to mid 60s for most of the area, with a few upper 60s across the southwestern counties. Given temperatures verified a bit higher than forecast yesterday, I've nudged today's forecast on the higher side of guidance. The upper ridge becomes more suppressed tomorrow as a trough approached from the northwest. With the approaching trough, we should start to see increasing cloud cover through the day on Thursday, which will limit our daytime highs into the upper 50s to low 60s.
540 AM CST Wed Feb 7 2024 (Today and tonight) A plume of mid and high level moisture continues to stream across the forecast area this morning ahead of an approaching upper-level trough. Despite this cloud cover, temperatures will still be able to warm nicely today into the low to mid 60s as southerly to southwesterly surface winds increase in response to a tightening pressure gradient. Temperatures will be slightly cooler behind the front tonight in the mid 30s to mid 40s but still generally above average for this time of year.
608 AM EST Wed Feb 7 2024 High pressure will build across the eastern half of the United States through the end of the week. Another day with mostly clear skies (canât rule out a few high cirrus clouds late in the day) across the region as upper level ridge builds east across the Eastern US.
Temperatures across the island chain currently range from the lower 60s to the mid 50s in the Lower Keys and the Upper Keys respectively. Drastically rising heights from last night's balloon sounding support that the previously mentioned cyclone inducing our strong northerly breezes will continue to slide out into the North Atlantic. Meanwhile, deep layer ridging will establish itself along the Eastern Seaboard.
Stratus is expected to become widespread and deepen late tonight through Thursday morning ahead of a weak cold front.
611 AM EST Wed Feb 7 2024 High pressure builds in from the north today. A period of dry weather follows with warmer temperatures expected Thursday into the weekend.
512 AM CST Wed Feb 7 2024 (Today through Thursday) High pressure will move across the area today leading to clear to mostly clear skies. Temperatures are forecast to be in the low to mid 60s for most of the area, with a few upper 60s across the southwestern counties. Given temperatures verified a bit higher than forecast yesterday, I've nudged today's forecast on the higher side of guidance. The upper ridge becomes more suppressed tomorrow as a trough approached from the northwest. With the approaching trough, we should start to see increasing cloud cover through the day on Thursday, which will limit our daytime highs into the upper 50s to low 60s.
A cooler but active pattern will continue through the remainder of the week.
Low pressure offshore of the east coast lifts out today as high pressure builds down the state.
517 AM CST Wed Feb 7 2024 - Warm front today means a contrast in temperatures across the state, with readings topping out in the 50s to those struggling to climb above 40 degrees. Inverted trough will become a warm front as it lifts north and west today, shifting the low clouds and fog into North Dakota and north central South Dakota. For highs today, there will be a sharp contrast along that front, somewhere between Aberdeen/Pierre and Mobridge. Otherwise, increasing low level flow ahead of developing low pressure will result in strong south winds for the Coteau region. Profiles support drizzle under the low as outside of the brief period of saturation aloft for light showers, but the mean 24 hour QPF is only around a tenth or two.
1137 AM CST Wed Feb 7 2024 The cap is beginning to break to allow for the higher momentum winds to mix down to the sfc. This trough is expected to send a weak mid level disturbance across the area that will combine with the increased available moisture courtesy of a strengthening low- level onshore flow to spark a few showers over eastern portions of the CWA from late tonight through Thursday (PoPs <20%).
Showers will continue in the e-central Oregon and w-central Idaho mountains as they wrap around an upper low over central Idaho today.
103 PM EST Wed Feb 7 2024 High pressure maintains dry weather through Thursday.
These breezy westerly winds in addition to clear skies will lead to slightly warmer temperatures than previous days in the 60s, with a few locations off the Caprock topping off near or around 70 degrees.
A strong subtropical jet stream oriented across northern Mexico toward the Central Plains on the back side of this ridge is producing widespread saturation aloft, with and cirrus producing virga noted on satellite imagery and as seen from below.
1141 AM CST Wed Feb 7 2024 - Warm front today means a contrast in temperatures across the state, with readings topping out in the 50s to those struggling to climb above 40 degrees. Inverted trough will become a warm front as it lifts north and west today, shifting the low clouds and fog into North Dakota and north central South Dakota. For highs today, there will be a sharp contrast along that front, somewhere between Aberdeen/Pierre and Mobridge. Otherwise, increasing low level flow ahead of developing low pressure will result in strong south winds for the Coteau region. Profiles support drizzle under the low as outside of the brief period of saturation aloft for light showers, but the mean 24 hour QPF is only around a tenth or two.
(This afternoon through Thursday) Deep ridging is still in control over Central Alabama with east- southeasterly surface winds transitioning to northerly aloft. Dewpoints continue to trend on the lower side of guidance, and the forecast has been adjusted to account for that. Temperatures yesterday exceeded even the warmest solutions, but highs today should be a couple degrees cooler due to the easterly flow. Even still, favored the warmer guidance based on current trends with forecast highs ranging from the lower 60s east to upper 60s west. Troughing over the Northern and Central Plains will result in weak height falls tomorrow as the ridge is dampened and shifted east of the area. Mild temperatures are expected once again with highs in the lower 60s north to mid 60s south.
1114 AM CST Wed Feb 7 2024 (Today and tonight) Southwest upper flow is expected to develop across the region today as broad upper trough shifts east a bit with an impulse(s) moving through the flow.
(Tonight through Thursday night) Mid-afternoon sfc analysis shows high pressure centered over the sern CONUS ridging wwd and holding firm over Deep South TX at this time. Meanwhile, a sfc cold front is noted approaching far wrn TX, with its attendant low pressure center tightening the gradient and producing elevated serly winds over the forecast area this afternoon. Water vapor imagery shows ridging in place from the wrn Gulf up through the Mississippi Valley while deep troffing is noted over the wrn CONUS down through Baja California. Pacific moisture riding up over the ridge is resulting in plentiful cirrus over the region. Continuing to expect quiet weather through the short term as high pressure continues to ridge wwd over the forecast area.
Tonight Through Thursday: High cloud cover will be on the increase during tonight and Thursday as the prevailing flow ahead of a strong trough in the West sends increased upper level (above 500 mb) moisture our way.
An upper low spins southeast of Nova Scotia with associated troughing extending south through the western Atlantic to the Bahamas. Farther to our west, upper ridging extends from the western Gulf of Mexico northward through the Mississippi River Valley. Florida sits right in between these two features for the next 24 hours keeping us in a cooler and drier air mass through Thursday morning. North-northeast winds will filter in some cooler and drier air once again overnight Wednesday into Thursday morning with lows dipping into the upper 30's to upper 50's.
With increasing subsidence from the passing upper ridge, temperatures remain well above seasonal norms through the Near Term.
944 AM CST Wed Feb 7 2024 Surface and upper-level ridging will continue to bring rain free weather to the Mid-South through tonight. Shower and thunderstorm chances will gradually increase Thursday afternoon into the upcoming weekend as a cold front moves into the Mid-South and becomes nearly stationary.
151 PM EST Wed Feb 7 2024 High pressure maintains dry weather through Thursday.
Alligator, in the lee of South Florida, is the lowest at 8 knots. The Gulf and Bayside SSTs are much cooler after this recent blast of cold air, resulting in milder temperatures for the locations downstream. A long wave ridge axis initially across the Ohio River Valley will slide east and deamplify over the next several days.
Surface level and upper level ridging remains fixed over the region keeping dry, calm weather areawide through at least tomorrow afternoon. Despite the aforementioned cloud cover, today's high temperatures will increase into the 60s, with some areas in northern Mississippi reaching the lower 70s. Tonight's lows will be in the 40s as cloud cover begins to increase overnight as a cold front slowly begins to push east. AEH Surface and upper-level ridging will continue to bring rain free weather to the Mid-South through tonight. Shower and thunderstorm chances will gradually increase Thursday afternoon into the upcoming weekend as a cold front moves into the Mid-South and becomes nearly stationary.
1121 AM CST Wed Feb 7 2024 (Today and tonight) A plume of mid and high level moisture continues to stream across the forecast area this morning ahead of an approaching upper-level trough. Despite this cloud cover, temperatures will still be able to warm nicely today into the low to mid 60s as southerly to southwesterly surface winds increase in response to a tightening pressure gradient. Temperatures will be slightly cooler behind the front tonight in the mid 30s to mid 40s but still generally above average for this time of year.
123 PM EST Wed Feb 7 2024 High pressure over the eastern United States will provide fair dry weather through Thursday.
150 PM EST Wed Feb 7 2024 High pressure maintains dry weather through Thursday.
(This Evening and Tonight) Another picture perfect early February day across the Tennessee Valley region with a mostly sunny sky and light southeast winds warming us into the low to mid 60s as of 20z. A glance at visible satellite imagery indicates some denser cirrus plumes to our west that will begin to filter into the region later this evening and overnight ahead of an approaching area of low pressure well to our west.
Upper level ridging continues to dominate the region and is resulting in light winds with very dry conditions this afternoon. The main impact clouds will bring is increasing insulation tonight, with overnight temperatures trending warmer relative to previous days.
1032 AM EST Wed Feb 7 2024 High pressure over the eastern United States will provide fair dry weather through Thursday.
* Trending cooler over the weekend closer to seasonal climo.
1130 AM EST Wed Feb 7 2024 High pressure builds in from the north today. A period of dry weather follows with warmer temperatures expected Thursday into the weekend.
Lows tonight will be a bit warmer than previous nights thanks to the southerly breeze and increasing cloudiness with lows generally in the 40s.
Continued well above normal temperatures expected thanks to ridging across the central US and warm air advection.
1056 AM EST Wed Feb 7 2024 High pressure maintains dry weather through Thursday.
1117 AM CST Wed Feb 7 2024 (Rest of Today) High pressure just to the east of the region will continue to promote a mostly clear sky today as our winds gradually veer to the southeast by this afternoon. We can expect another very similar day to the previous couple days as ample sunshine and a dry boundary layer will allow temperatures to climb into the low to mid 60s in most locations once again by the afternoon.
640 PM EST Wed Feb 7 2024 High pressure will prevail through late in the week. Early this evening: Aloft, high amplitude ridging will prevail across the eastern third of the CONUS. At the surface, dry high pressure will be the primary feature along the entire Eastern Seaboard. Expect another chilly night with sub-freezing temperatures for the interior half of the forecast area and mid to upper 30s along the immediate coast. A somewhat amplified pattern will persist across the CONUS through the latter half of the week as sharp upper level ridging slowly progresses through the eastern CONUS and Atlantic Coast region.
A deep trough continues to drape across the entire west coast today pulling in cold air aloft. At the same time, the trough pulling close to shore helped dropped snow levels as low as 2300 feet with light snow evident on the high passes of highway 36 and 299.
901 PM EST Wed Feb 7 2024 A large area of high pressure over the eastern US will persist into Thursday night.
633 PM EST Wed Feb 7 2024 A large area of high pressure over the eastern US will persist into Thursday night.
Today and Tomorrow: Water vapor imagery this afternoon continues to feature the pronounced trough over the western third of the CONUS, strong southwesterly mid/upper flow ahead of it across the Plains, and ridging over the eastern third. A recent surface analysis places a few centers of low surface pressure and frontal boundaries from the WY/NE/SD border area extending northeastward while a warm frontal boundary hangs southward from western Minnesota through Iowa to western Illinois. A similar record-breaking temperature scenario is likely to unfold tomorrow with the very warm morning temperatures, with evening temperatures expected to be falling but not fast enough after a cold front passage earlier in the day.
534 PM CST Wed Feb 7 2024 (This afternoon through Thursday) Deep ridging is still in control over Central Alabama with east- southeasterly surface winds transitioning to northerly aloft. Dewpoints continue to trend on the lower side of guidance, and the forecast has been adjusted to account for that. Temperatures yesterday exceeded even the warmest solutions, but highs today should be a couple degrees cooler due to the easterly flow. Even still, favored the warmer guidance based on current trends with forecast highs ranging from the lower 60s east to upper 60s west. Troughing over the Northern and Central Plains will result in weak height falls tomorrow as the ridge is dampened and shifted east of the area. Mild temperatures are expected once again with highs in the lower 60s north to mid 60s south.
928 PM EST Wed Feb 7 2024 High pressure will prevail through late in the week. Late this evening: Aloft, high amplitude ridging will prevail across the eastern third of the CONUS. At the surface, dry high pressure will be the primary feature along the entire Eastern Seaboard. Expect another chilly night with sub-freezing temperatures for the interior half of the forecast area and mid to upper 30s along the immediate coast. A somewhat amplified pattern will persist across the CONUS through the latter half of the week as sharp upper level ridging slowly progresses through the eastern CONUS and Atlantic Coast region.
The remainder of the forecast remains on track with temperatures expected to fall into the mid to upper 40s inland and the low to mid 50s nearer to the coast.
Last of chilly nights tonight with nice warm up for the rest of the work week as upper ridging builds and low level flow brings increased dew points back into the area. An upper low spins southeast of Nova Scotia with associated troughing extending south through the western Atlantic to the Bahamas. Farther to our west, upper ridging extends from the western Gulf of Mexico northward through the Mississippi River Valley. Florida sits right in between these two features for the next 24 hours keeping us in a cooler and drier air mass through Thursday morning. North-northeast winds will filter in some cooler and drier air once again overnight Wednesday into Thursday morning with lows dipping into the upper 30's to upper 50's.
538 PM CST Wed Feb 7 2024 (Tonight through Thursday night) Mid-afternoon sfc analysis shows high pressure centered over the sern CONUS ridging wwd and holding firm over Deep South TX at this time. Meanwhile, a sfc cold front is noted approaching far wrn TX, with its attendant low pressure center tightening the gradient and producing elevated serly winds over the forecast area this afternoon. Water vapor imagery shows ridging in place from the wrn Gulf up through the Mississippi Valley while deep troffing is noted over the wrn CONUS down through Baja California. Pacific moisture riding up over the ridge is resulting in plentiful cirrus over the region. Continuing to expect quiet weather through the short term as high pressure continues to ridge wwd over the forecast area.
538 PM CST Wed Feb 7 2024 (This Evening and Tonight) Another picture perfect early February day across the Tennessee Valley region with a mostly sunny sky and light southeast winds warming us into the low to mid 60s as of 20z. A glance at visible satellite imagery indicates some denser cirrus plumes to our west that will begin to filter into the region later this evening and overnight ahead of an approaching area of low pressure well to our west.
517 PM CST Wed Feb 7 2024 High pressure will keep dry, calm weather in the forecast through late tomorrow morning.
410 PM EST Wed Feb 7 2024 High pressure maintains dry weather through Thursday.
329 PM CST Wed Feb 7 2024 - Drizzle continues across the forecast area, with freezing drizzle possible in areas below freezing surface temperatures through this evening. - Winter Weather Advisory over much of western and northern North Dakota through Thursday night for a wintry mix of freezing rain, and then several inches of snow. Currently a big broad trough across the western CONUS has produced a low off The Rockies, along with synoptic diffluence lifting over the Northern Plains. In the west, this drizzle is most likely freezing, as surface temperatures there are below freezing. In the central and west, a dry slot is moving through, ahead of a surface warm front. Aloft the low is more of an open wave, lessening the snow totals. On the backside of the low, a pressure gradient will cause breezy winds.
938 PM EST Wed Feb 7 2024 High pressure maintains dry weather through Thursday.
607 PM EST Wed Feb 7 2024 High pressure maintains dry weather through Thursday.
High pressure will keep dry, calm weather in the forecast through late tomorrow morning.
734 PM EST Wed Feb 7 2024 High pressure over the eastern United States will provide fair dry weather through Thursday.
This trend will continue as an upper low develops over the Dakotas this evening. Once the upper low develops, which the beginning of this process is evident on satellite imagery, precipitation will shift to be from the north and west. This precipitation will stay as mixed rain/snow through the afternoon before cooler temperatures allow the precipitation to turn to all snow this evening.
Ridging aloft will continue to shift east through the region overnight. The resulting increased southwest flow aloft in its wake, southerly surface winds, and increasing clouds will yield warmer conditions across the CWA tonight. A strong subtropical jet stream oriented across northern Mexico toward the Central Plains on the back side of this ridge is producing widespread saturation aloft, with and cirrus producing virga noted on satellite imagery and as seen from below.
1050 PM CST Wed Feb 7 2024 (Tonight through Thursday night) Mid-afternoon sfc analysis shows high pressure centered over the sern CONUS ridging wwd and holding firm over Deep South TX at this time. Meanwhile, a sfc cold front is noted approaching far wrn TX, with its attendant low pressure center tightening the gradient and producing elevated serly winds over the forecast area this afternoon. Water vapor imagery shows ridging in place from the wrn Gulf up through the Mississippi Valley while deep troffing is noted over the wrn CONUS down through Baja California. Pacific moisture riding up over the ridge is resulting in plentiful cirrus over the region. Continuing to expect quiet weather through the short term as high pressure continues to ridge wwd over the forecast area.
210 AM EST Thu Feb 8 2024 High pressure over the eastern United States will provide fair dry weather today.
(Today) A return flow pattern is in place across much of the region this early Thu morning, as high pressure at the sfc pivots into the southern Atlantic Basin.
Water vapor imagery this morning reveals the strong mid-level jet off the Southern Plains, ushering in dryer air and continuing to shunt the ridge axis to the east across the Ohio Valley. Out west, it's a bit messy, there is no missing the large trough, but several short waves continue to occupy the periphery, with the one ejecting east-northeast across NE/SD the one to watch.
1217 AM EST Thu Feb 8 2024 High pressure maintains dry weather today.
It is also noted that record highs for most climo sites are into the lower 60s.
Winds will diminish back to around 10 mph tonight which when combined with increasing cloud cover will help to keep temperatures on the mild side once again ranging from the low 30s across the far southwestern Texas Panhandle to the upper 30s to lower 40s east of the escarpment.
117 AM EST Thu Feb 8 2024 High pressure maintains dry weather today.
ARS High pressure will keep dry, calm weather in the forecast through late tomorrow morning.
102 AM EST Thu Feb 8 2024 High pressure will prevail through late in the week. Aloft, high amplitude ridging will prevail across the eastern third of the CONUS. At the surface, dry high pressure will be the primary feature along the entire Eastern Seaboard. With calm winds most places, expect another cold night with sub- freezing temperatures for the interior half of the forecast area, lower and middle 30s most elsewhere, except for a few places closer to 40 degrees along the coast, near Lake Moultrie and in downtown Charleston and parts of the Savannah metro. A somewhat amplified pattern will persist across the CONUS through the latter half of the week as sharp upper level ridging slowly progresses through the eastern CONUS and Atlantic Coast region.
343 AM EST Thu Feb 8 2024 High pressure will be ridging across the area through the weekend, keeping rain-free conditions and gradually warming temperatures, with winds remaining generally easterly through the end of the week, then becoming more S/SE over the weekend.
Drier air is expected to move into the area with the downslope flow along with warmer temperatures (highs in the mid 60s to low 70s).