Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
An upper low evident on 0730z/230am water vapor imagery over the Texas panhandle will pivot slowly eastward today. Given the presence of weak upper/surface ridging over the region, think most of the moisture and associated precipitation will remain south of the KILX CWA through this afternoon. Meanwhile further north, high pressure sliding eastward across Ontario into Quebec will nudge a cold front southward from the Great Lakes. The front will eventually intercept slightly deeper moisture associated with the upper low, thus leading to a chance for showers along/south of a Rushville to Paris line overnight. Further north, rain chances will decrease behind the cold front. Low temperatures will bottom out in the lower to middle 40s.
Today Currently early this morning, an omega blocking pattern is in place with a closed low over the Southern Plains and another centered near New York. This puts our region in an area of weak ridging aloft with a frontal boundary just north of the Gulf. Tonight Overnight, the closed low to our west will progress towards Missouri with the aforementioned frontal boundary being pulled northward.
110 AM MDT Wed May 7 2025 - Warmer Temperatures Return - A Few Showers and Storms Today and Thursday - Better Chance of Rain and Thunder By the Weekend We are looking at warmer temperatures rapidly returning to central and eastern Idaho.
330 AM CDT Wed May 7 2025 - Cooler and more seasonal today and tomorrow with coolest conditions near Lake Superior with onshore winds.
(Today through Thursday) Upper troughs near Lake Ontario and over the southwestern states early this morning. One band of thunderstorms will be moving into Alabama around 4 AM CDT, with another cluster moving across the Lower Atchafalaya River Basin. Will run with the NBM numbers on temperatures today and Thursday, with Thursday being a bit warmer than today, assuming we don't get much sunshine this afternoon behind the thunderstorm cluster.
101 AM MDT Wed May 7 2025 - Warmer Temperatures Return - A Few Showers and Storms Thursday - Better Chance of Rain and Thunder By the Weekend We are looking at warmer temperatures rapidly returning to central and eastern Idaho.
252 AM EDT Wed May 7 2025 High pressure will build into the area through today, while another low pressure and/or cold front impacts the region by late week. This should allow temps to fall into the low/mid 50s inland and low/mid 60s for the beaches. Cold front that has been near us the past couple days finally shifts offshore through the morning as high pressure continues building in. Highs in the low to mid 80s inland, upper 70s to near 80 for beaches. Lows tonight in the low 60s inland, mid 60s along the coast.
135 AM EDT Wed May 7 2025 Weak high pressure will build over our region today and linger through tonight.
257 AM CDT Wed May 7 2025 - Slightly cooler (about 5 degrees) today with a 20 percent chance afternoon showers and very isolated thunderstorms along the Highway 20 corridor.
154 AM EDT Wed May 7 2025 - Rain Ends Tonight then Fair and Cool Upper low continues to spin across the Ohio Valley with a deformation axis bringing mesoscale bands of rain across Lower Michigan into the evening, before moving east and ending.
A weak omega-ridging pattern is in place today with ridge riding rain showers in the state. Slightly high pressure behind yesterday's cold front is sitting across the northwest two- thirds of the state. The turtle mountains will likely see below freezing temperatures. The far west and south will be in the lower 40s. The upper level high is progged to stick around the Northern Plains until Thursday night, when a cold front will sweep in to the northwest.
It looks like the trough base to our northeast will be a little more broad and flat than previously depicted.
- Forecast rainfall amounts and higher tides along the coast may lead to significant river flooding for portions of the lower Neches, lower Sabine, lower Calcasieu basins, along with the Mermentau and Vermilion River basins.
1127 PM EDT Tue May 6 2025 Low pressure approaches from the southwest overnight and will cross the region late Wednesday into Wednesday night.
214 AM EDT Wed May 7 2025 The cutoff low that has been driving the cloudy, cool, and showery conditions finally moves east for Wednesday giving way to warmer, drier conditions.
Patchy fog is possible across the entire CWA through mid morning, but the higher potential will remain across the east and southeast this morning. The upper level low pressure system that brought the beneficial moisture to the region will slowly move off to the east today. H850 temperatures are forecast to increase to around 10 to 13 C which will lead to somewhat warmer temperatures for Thursday afternoon. Some locations may reach the lower 70s but the majority of the area will likely stay in the 60s.
A closed low in between the two jet streams will meander over the mid south during this time period.
Water Vapor and upper air models show upper trough and low over the four corners region. Over the next 24 hours the upper trough slides east towards the central and southern plains. Thursday into the weekend upper ridge builds back over the western CONUS, prompting a warming trend.
1027 PM CDT Tue May 6 2025 - Slightly cooler Wednesday with a 20 percent chance for afternoon showers mainly along the Highway 20 corridor.
Upper level ridging continues to move across the area this afternoon, which has resulted in drying and warming conditions at the surface. By tomorrow morning, the upper level ridge will be pushed east of the area by a strengthening upper level low in the Gulf of Alaska, with southwest flow developing as a result. Otherwise, a cold front with this system will tighten surface pressure gradients as it approaches the PacNW, resulting in breezy to to locally gusty winds (gusts 30-45mph) through the Cascade gaps with breezy conditions (guts 20-30mph) elsewhere in the lower elevations.
158 AM EDT Wed May 7 2025 Dry weather expected today as low pressure exits to the northeast. The western edge will make steady progress tonight, and only sparse rain coverage is forecast in the ridges by Wednesday morning. KEY MESSAGES: - Dry for most of the area on Wednesday - Cold front returns showers for Thursday ------------------------------------------------------------------- Lingering moisture along the foothills southeast of Pittsburgh combined with weak NW upslope flow could allow for lingering light rain showers in the higher terrain Wednesday morning/afternoon. An weak uptick in moist, southwest flow will develop Thursday in response to a trough that begins to dig south toward the Upper Ohio River Valley. Along with cold advection behind the boundary, the front plus positively titled upper trough should induce enough lift for scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms Thursday afternoon and evening.
Our primary change to weather today will be increased winds (out of the northeast) and highs roughly 10 degrees cooler than yesterday. We'll also see our first sign of clouds in a few days, primarily for southern MN as moisture wraps around the closed low over the central Plains.
- Cooler, near normal temps Wednesday and Thursday.
The broad region of precipitation associated with the disturbance arriving ahead of the upper level low in TX/OK has spread into the TN Valley at this hour. This is suggesting the warm front is not lifting northward very quickly due to the stabilizing effects from the precip this morning and lingering low ceiling heights. (Wednesday through Thursday) The short term period will remain unsettled as low pressure slowly meanders east across the MO Ozarks and the Tennessee Valley becomes more influenced by southwesterly flow aloft.
137 AM EDT Wed May 7 2025 The cutoff low that has been driving the cloudy, cool, and showery conditions finally moves east for Wednesday giving way to warmer, drier conditions.
With a little deeper mixing, expect temperatures to reach a couple degrees warmer in the northwest. With low pressure sliding through Saskatchewan and high pressure over the Great Lakes Region, expect further tightening of the pressure gradient.
Temperatures increase through the rest of the week as high pressure builds. The low pressure system responsible for yesterday's activity will continue to track southeast and become centered over southern Arizona by this evening. Showers in Arizona are gradually weakening as seen in slower rain rates, warmer cloud tops, and an end to lightning activity. There is one last chance for a few more isolated thunderstorms over the high terrain in Mohave County this afternoon, but decreasing instability and moisture mean they should be less intense compared to yesterday's storms. Heights aloft will increase as the low exits the area and afternoon highs will be a few degrees warmer compared to earlier this week, part of a warming trend that will last through the end of the week.
1118 PM EDT Tue May 6 2025 The upper level low responsible for unsettled weather over the past few days will move across PA tonight with light to moderate rain over north-central and south-central PA.
Upper ridging and returning southerly winds into Thursday should help boost temperatures back into the 70s and low 80s.
The upper closed low pressure area responsible for the numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms tonight is currently centered over New Mexico, and will move east- northeastward to over Missouri by late Wednesday night. Low temperatures tonight and Wednesday night are expected to be in the lower to middle 60s interior areas, and from 65 to 70 degrees closer to the coast. /22 An upper level low across the southern plains will continue to gradually shear out into an open trough through the end of the week.
High pressure in eastern Manitoba early this morning will move into NW Ontario thru today.
On Thursday, the highest chances for measurable precipitation will be across the higher terrain of northern New York and Vermont with cooler temperatures in the upper 50s to mid 60s.
(Today through Thursday) Models remain in fair agreement in bringing mid-levgel ridging across the area to start the forecast period, along with warmer 500mb temps and a decrease in moisture over SoFlo. With the establishing mid level ridge, and overall subsidence returning to SoFlo, afternoon temperatures will warm up into the upper 80s to low 90s across much of interior and western areas. The SE flow may keep the Atlantic coastal areas in the low-mid 80s.
347 AM EDT Wed May 7 2025 High pressure return briefly today, resulting in dry weather.
These high clouds will eventually overspread central Illinois by tonight as the upper low lifts into the Southern Plains. Mostly cloudy skies will then continue into Wednesday as the low stalls over SW Missouri. Temperatures today will surge into the lowers 70s beneath mostly sunny skies, then into the mid-to-upper 70s by Wednesday (despite the filtered sunshine) as a ribbon of warmer 850-mb temps sags into central IL ahead of a backdoor front. Ideal spring weather will then be in place this weekend as a blocking pattern develops over the region.
248 AM EDT Wed May 7 2025 Weak low pressure will cross the region today into tonight.
The upper low currently over the Texas Panhandle will push into Oklahoma by late morning before moving over Missouri later tonight. Models bring the upper low currently over southern Nevada southeastward through the day before ending up over the Big Bend by tomorrow morning. This should not affect the current precip forecast as rain associated with the low will remain south of the FA. Rain behind the main upper low should also remain to our north today, but there is a chance some showers could push into our northern zones.
156 AM EDT Wed May 7 2025 A slow moving frontal boundary and low pressure system will slowly lift northeast through Wednesday bringing rounds of showers and thunderstorms. A cold front will then swing through our area Wednesday night bringing a cooler shot of air for the latter half of the work week. A closed upper level low is right over the forecast area late tonight. The closed upper level low will start to shift away from the region Wednesday. Some wrap-around showers are likely east of the Genesee River with the highest confidence across the Finger Lakes region to the Tug Hill region. An approaching trough from northern Ontario will shove the closed low out to sea Wednesday night. A cold front will bring much drier air with a diminishing shower threat Wednesday night and Thursday.
1234 AM CDT Wed May 7 2025 (Tonight through Wednesday night) Key messages: - Storms to decrease in coverage this evening before another conditional risk of severe storms and heavy rainfall tomorrow An upper level low currently centered over New Mexico this afternoon tries to move eastward over the central plains tonight and Wednesday.
Temperatures on the island chain are in the lower 80s with dew points in the lower 70s. 34 inches of PWAT majority of this moisture located in the lower-levels. From synopsis, an Atlantic ridge over the Florida Peninsula will continue to promote east to southeasterly breezes. This along with sloppy troughing in the Gulf will keep breezes moderate for the remainder of the week.
A weak frontal system will cross the region today with scattered shower activity and much cooler temperatures.
Lingering moisture will fuel afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms mainly across the higher terrain. High pressure will strengthen across the area for the remainder of the week, bringing a substantial warming trend heading into the upcoming weekend.
709 AM EDT Wed May 7 2025 (Today through Thursday) Models remain in fair agreement in bringing mid-levgel ridging across the area to start the forecast period, along with warmer 500mb temps and a decrease in moisture over SoFlo. With the establishing mid level ridge, and overall subsidence returning to SoFlo, afternoon temperatures will warm up into the upper 80s to low 90s across much of interior and western areas. The SE flow may keep the Atlantic coastal areas in the low-mid 80s.
623 AM CDT Wed May 7 2025 An upper low over the central Plains (left over from a defunct omega block) advances slowly eastward and is absorbed into an evolving upper trof over the eastern states on Thursday.
451 AM MDT Wed May 7 2025 - Warmer Temperatures Return - A Few Showers and Storms Today and Thursday - Better Chance of Rain and Thunder By the Weekend We are looking at warmer temperatures rapidly returning to central and eastern Idaho.
628 AM CDT Wed May 7 2025 - Cooler and more seasonal today and tomorrow with coolest conditions near Lake Superior with onshore winds.
724 AM EDT Wed May 7 2025 High pressure will build into the area through today, while another low pressure and/or cold front impacts the region by late week. This allowed temps to fall into the low/mid 50s inland and low/mid 60s for the beaches. Cold front that has been near us the past couple days finally shifts further offshore through the morning as high pressure continues building in. Highs in the low to mid 80s inland, upper 70s to near 80 for beaches. Lows tonight in the low 60s inland, mid 60s along the coast.
618 AM CDT Wed May 7 2025 - Slightly cooler (about 5 degrees) today with a 25 percent chance of afternoon showers and very isolated thunderstorms along the Highway 20 corridor.
900 AM EDT Wed May 7 2025 Weak low pressure will cross the region today into tonight.
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Rex block pattern continues with upper low moving from the southwest states into the Ohio Valley over the next few days. For Montana, the upper ridge will be dominate. Ahead of this wave, a lee trough develops across central Montana today, resulting in increasing south winds over eastern Montana.
A weak cold front will bring cooler and cloudier weather today, along with chances for very light rain.
637 AM CDT Wed May 7 2025 (Today through Thursday Night) Another day of unsettled weather is expected today, but unlike yesterday which saw most showers and thunderstorm activity north of I-10, areas south of I-10 will have the highest coverage/likelihood today. Temperatures this afternoon are expected to rise into the low to mid 80s for most of the region with overnight lows tonight in the mid 60s to low 70s.
930 AM EDT Wed May 7 2025 High pressure will build into the area through today, while another low pressure and/or cold front impacts the region by late week. Highs in the low to mid 80s inland, upper 70s to near 80 for beaches. Lows tonight in the low 60s inland, mid 60s along the coast.
Temperatures have cooled off nicely this morning with most locations having dropped into the 30s, though some remain in the low 40s. With a little deeper mixing, expect temperatures to reach a couple degrees warmer in the northwest. With low pressure sliding through Saskatchewan and high pressure over the Great Lakes Region, expect further tightening of the pressure gradient.
618 AM EDT Wed May 7 2025 Weak low pressure will cross the region today into tonight.
359 PM EDT Wed May 7 2025 Weak low pressure will cross the region tonight.
300 PM CDT Wed May 7 2025 (This evening through Thursday Night) The sun has returned this afternoon across much of the Four State Region, replacing the low overcast, fog and drizzle from earlier this morning.
315 PM EDT Wed May 7 2025 - Cooler and breezy into this evening.
Tonight, a low pressure develops over the MS River Valley and moves northeast. Wednesday, the low pressure strengthens and continues to the north.
Dry and mostly sunny conditions are likely the next several days as upper-level ridging dominates the north-central CONUS. After yesterday's cold front, temperatures are a bit cooler and will remain that way through Thursday night.
1246 PM CDT Wed May 7 2025 An upper low over the central Plains (left over from a defunct omega block) advances slowly eastward and is absorbed into an evolving upper trof over the eastern states on Thursday.
Overnight lows are expected to range from the low/mid 60s in our northern counties to low 70s south of I-10.
An upper level low noted over southern Nevada/southern California will open up and move over our area for Thursday. Confidence is slightly higher for tomorrow then today due to the strong forcing from the trough and heating.
Ridging will continue to dominate promoting mostly sunny skies and moderate east to southeast breezes with very limited shower activity.
An upper low will be to our west-northwest. Southwest flow in the low to mid levels will allow dewpoints to climb into the low to mid 60s. A cold front will be to our north and moving south out of KY. Due to the advancing cold front, vorticity associated with the upper low to our west, moderately favorable upper jet dynamics, increasing moisture, and moderate 0-6km effective bulk shear, a few strong to severe storms are expected. However, shear in the lower levels of the atmosphere will be on the weaker side with 0-1km shear only around 10 kts. Though we will likely see weak, mid-level, rotation in some of the stronger storms, the tornado threat is very low due to the weaker shear in the lowest levels.
1236 PM CDT Wed May 7 2025 - Slightly cooler (about 5 degrees) today with a 25 percent chance of afternoon showers and very isolated thunderstorms along the Highway 20 corridor.
(Rest of Today and Tonight) Low to medium shower/thunderstorm chances (30-50%) continue through the Tennessee Valley today into this evening as an upper level low continues to slowly move eastward into the mid Mississippi Valley. These rain chances were adjusted based on trends as well as CAMs hinting as a large break in rain this morning before some afternoon development-- which could be pushed as late as this evening as they may even be currently overdone as a warm front struggles to lift northward. Despite the lowered rain chances, there are high chances (70%+) of low clouds continuing to stick around the area throughout the day. This will keep temperatures relatively cooler once again as highs reach the upper 60s to lower 70s.
- Warmer weather moves into the forecast area on Thursday and continues into the weekend. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms continue this afternoon, as an upper low continues to slowly drift across the Central Great Plains. Most of the forecast area remains under an east- northeasterly flow aloft, although KFTG VAD wind profile data indicates that upslope has weakened through the day today, while the low level (0-2km AGL) flow is a bit more north/northwesterly. Ridging should start to build across the region on Thursday, with high temperatures near normal along with party cloudy (fair weather cu) skies. A few showers and perhaps a thunderstorm or two will be possible during the afternoon hours over the higher terrain.
(This afternoon through Thursday) Models remain in fair agreement in bringing mid-levgel ridging across the area to start the forecast period, along with warmer 500mb temps and a decrease in moisture over SoFlo. With the establishing mid level ridge, and overall subsidence returning to SoFlo, afternoon temperatures will warm up into the upper 80s to low 90s across much of interior and western areas. The SE flow may keep the Atlantic coastal areas in the low-mid 80s.
404 PM EDT Wed May 7 2025 A slow moving low pressure system will lift northeast this evening with scattered showers east of Lake Ontario tapering off tonight.
High pressure will begin to dominate the weather pattern into the weekend, providing dry conditions, and notably warmer temperatures.
408 PM EDT Wed May 7 2025 - Cooler and breezy into this evening.
101 PM CDT Wed May 7 2025 - Cooler and more seasonal today and tomorrow with coolest conditions near Lake Superior with onshore winds.
The low pressure system continues to transit over the region departing later today and with it any remaining precipitation chances. Expect high pressure to begin building in tomorrow further strengthening into the weekend with temperatures expected to warm to above-normal levels. 2, GEFS) indicate a low pressure system maintaining cooler-than-normal temperatures in the CWA, with highs in the mid-80s (5-10 degrees below normal). Recent model runs, particularly the 12Z GFS and ECMWF, suggest that the low pressure system will begin to shift eastward later tonight, allowing the western edge of a high pressure ridge to begin influencing the area. Tomorrow the high pressure ridge begins to strengthen with the 500mb height field rising to around 582-584 dam over central Arizona (GFS/ECMWF consensus). This will initiate a warming trend with highs in the valley reaching the low to mid-90s.
- Scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms develop each afternoon through the weekend, mainly over the higher terrain. Between the lows, eastern Utah and Western Colorado are in a area of weak northerly flow and mostly clear skies early today allowing strong diurnal heating that, given the residual moisture across the region, has produced heavy cumulus, and scattered showers and thunderstorms over the higher terrain this afternoon. To the west, clear skies dominate the Great Basin under the subsidence of the ridge building in from the west. Look for this ridge to continue building to the east into the Rocky Mountain region Thursday with H500 heights approaching 580 dm warming temperatures to ten degrees above normal.
- Warmer weather moves into the forecast area on Thursday and continues into the weekend. Numerous showers continue rotating westward around the upper low, in line with a decent 20 kt upslope component. That upslope slowly weakens this morning as the upper low elongates even further across the Central/Southern Plains into Missouri and Illinois. We think the heaviest should be over around 6-7 am, but will monitor the latest trends and road conditions (mainly slush during the heaviest showers and over the highest passes) before allowing the Winter Highlights to expire on time at 6 am. There should be enough residual moisture to prevent a frost in the lower elevations outside of a couple of our coldest spots.
The cold front set to make its way across our area tonight can be seen moving onto the coast of Washington and Oregon via water vapor imagery. After 08/02Z dry cold front from the northwest with broken to overcast clouds AOA 150 MSL. Wind becoming NW 10-15 kt behind the cold front.