Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
431 AM MDT Tue May 28 2024 - Warmer today and Wednesday - Thunderstorms return Wednesday afternoon and evening with potential for large hail/damaging wind - Chance of showers/thunderstorms continue through the weekend Current surface map places trough across eastern Montana into northwestern South Dakota. For today, upper level ridge over the Rockies shifts into the plains. As ridge shifts east of the area tonight, modest theta-e advection and steep mid level lapse rates may bring some isolated showers/thunderstorms. Windy and warmer on Wednesday as upper trough moves across the northern Rockies.
544 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024 (Today through Wednesday) Dry conditions expected today as high pressure build into the area under northwesterly flow aloft. The main upper low slow shifts through the Great Lakes region today through Wednesday with little change in the overall synoptic pattern as we head into the middle part of the week. However, the probability is low given the ridge and drier air mass in place.
Ridging will persist today, allowing for temperatures to continue to moderate. Said ridge will be shifting later today as a trough moves on shore, passing us to the north. Overall, the trough will be too far north to have any real impact on our weather: it will simply bump winds up Wednesday a few MPH compared to today.
A weak cold front moves over the region today, with the postfrontal environment lingering through Wednesday and will bring cooler temperatures. Precipitation will be light with the highest accumulations along the terrain.
658 AM EDT Tue May 28 2024 A cold front will move through the area through the early afternoon.
An upper level trough will move through the Pacific Northwest bringing substantial moisture and cooler temperatures to Northwest California today and tomorrow. This trough is forecasted to migrate out of the area by Wednesday evening allowing a ridge to build back.
High temperatures today should be in the lower 80s to lower 90s. In the upper levels, NW flow will be in place as a ridge moves towards the Rockies. At the surface, high pressure will be situated across the Mid and Upper MS Valleys. Clockwise flow around this area of high pressure will advect cooler and drier air into the region on light Nrly winds. Drier and cooler air will remain entrenched across portions of the state through mid-week. High temperatures should be slightly cooler than Tuesday thanks to precipitation and cloud cover, with readings only climbing into the mid 70s to lower 80s.
Expect min RH values of 3-8 percent in the lower elevations and 8-15 percent in the mountains the next 7 days, with poor overnight recoveries between 20-30 percent in most locations.
Expect mostly clear to partly cloudy skies for the vast majority of the area today as we mainly stay in a drier post frontal airmass though still east of the broad upper trough axis. Upper low eastern Great Lakes dominates the weather conditions through the period.
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Fairly fast moving ridge moves across the region today, pushed by an upper low along the BC coast.
Temperatures are generally in the upper 70s to low 80s in SW GA and SE AL, while FL has risen to the low to mid 80s. (Today and tonight) A "cold" front is forecast to work its way southeastward across the area today with drier and slightly cooler air filtering overhead in its wake. The front will knock down temperatures a few degrees, with lows overnight tonight dropping into the low to mid 60s inland to the upper 60s to near 70 near the coast.
The combination of rich low-level moisture with dewpoints in the lower 70s and an upper-disturbance translating southeast within a northwest flow pattern will support deep convection ultimately leading to the potential for an MCS that will generate damaging winds and large hail along with an isolated tornado threat across the ArkLaTex. Convection to linger into the evening hours as fairly amplified low-level trough lingers across the northern gulf coast. Synoptic pattern to remain fairly stagnant through Wednesday as low to mid-level trough remains parked across the region in the vicinity of the frontal boundary resulting in an unsettled weather pattern characterized by decent rain chances areawide.
913 AM EDT Tue May 28 2024 Unsettled, showery, and cooler weather will continue through Wednesday as a slow moving upper level disturbance moves through the area.
Passing upper trough through the PacNW flattens out our ridge a bit, putting a slight pause on the warming as we move into the middle part of the week.
A cold front will cross western Washington today with a quick round of widespread rainfall, which will decrease into showers through the day Wednesday.
Mixing from heating today will likely drop Tds into the low 50s to upper 40s. With the lower Tds we may have a better chance to see gusty winds with the showers as inverted V soundings become more prevalent. At the same time, a cold front with this wave will drop Tds even more overnight. To begin the period a cold front will be moving into the area from the north as largescale NW flow keeps the area quiet and cool. A high amplitude ridge builds in to end the week.
Recent GOES-16 WV imagery and RAP 500-mb analysis showed a ridge of high pressure centered over Mexico, extending north into northern Canada. Upper-level low pressure was centered off the coast of British Columbia with a trough extending south along the coast of the Pacific Northwest. At the surface, high pressure was centered over the region with a weak cold front moving southwest across South Dakota. The upper-level trough will continue shifting further east with surface pressure falls aiding in the development of a low level jet (LLJ) tonight. With the upper- level ridge axis bisecting the local area into Wednesday, temperatures will be a few degrees warmer as compared to today.
Temperatures today and Wednesday will be a bit cooler as well, but frost and freeze concerns are not expected.
- The end of the week looks dry and a bit cooler after the system passes on Wednesday.
As for temperatures, highs today look to only reach into the low 80s with lows tonight in the mid to upper 50s. Moisture in the lower levels will continue to pool across the area during this time frame with continued easterly to southerly winds each day. Confidence is low on which days will bring the highest risk.
634 AM EDT Tue May 28 2024 (Today and tonight) A "cold" front is forecast to work its way southeastward across the area today with drier and slightly cooler air filtering overhead in its wake. The front will knock down temperatures a few degrees, with lows overnight tonight dropping into the low to mid 60s inland to the upper 60s to near 70 near the coast.
610 AM EDT Tue May 28 2024 A cooler and drier air mass will gradually build into the region through the end of the week, with high pressure moving across the region at the start of the weekend.
(Rest of Today) Tranquil weather across the Tennessee Valley this morning, with high pressure at the in control of our sensible weather.
Highs will be a bit cooler in the 80s across the area, but still plenty warm.
744 AM EDT Tue May 28 2024 (Today through Wednesday) Shower and thunderstorm chances will increase today as troughing moves into the eastern US displacing the mid-lvl ridge which had been in place over our area the last couple days. At the same time a weak cold front will shift into the vicinity of Northern Florida and then largely stall north of the area for much of the upcoming week. The low-lvl mean flow will still have a mean westerly component, making the east coast sea breeze once again the main forcing mechanism for convection and also focusing the highest rain chances over the eastern Interior and east coast metro.
645 AM EDT Tue May 28 2024 Unsettled, showery, and cooler weather will continue through Wednesday as a slow moving upper level disturbance moves through the area.
348 PM EDT Tue May 28 2024 A cold front draped over the region pushes offshore this evening before a second front approaches Wednesday, moving through into Wednesday night.
This afternoon, long wave trough is in place over the Great Lakes with northwest flow over central Illinois. Severe storms are not anticipated in part due to weak instability (dew points in the lower 50s contributing to MLCAPE values of around 300-400 J/kg.
Not saying late night and early Wednesday Morning upstream convection will be as intense and expansive as what we witnessed this morning as the low level jet which ofter feeds these nocturnal convective systems does not appear to be as stout as what we saw this morning but an increase in storm coverage and intensity is forecast just upstream of our region late tonight and expect this to move into our far northwest zones after midnight towards daybreak on Wednesday.
For tonight, lows range from the lower 60s well inland to around 70 at the immediate coast. Highs on Wednesday look to be mostly in the lower 90s.
High pressure will follow and build across the area tonight, bringing cool and dry conditions to the area. For Wednesday, a quiet day is in store with pleasant temperatures in the low to mid 70s. High pressure will keep the area quiet and dry through mid-week.
Surface analysis places a stationary front extending from the Gulf coast to the Northeast, with a series of high pressure centers in the North Atlantic. Combined with dew points in the upper 70s, feels-like temperatures are in the lower 100s at most locations. The latest mesoscale numerical weather prediction guidance suggests this could first occur tonight, with scattered shower activity in the vicinity of the Lower and Middle Keys developing after midnight.
251 PM EDT Tue May 28 2024 Low pressure will track to our northwest in Quebec throughout the day today.
A trough is digging into the west coast and pushing the ridge to the east and setting up southwest flow over the region, which is a classic thunderstorm pattern for this area. Thunderstorms will continue for through the night and transition to showers Wednesday morning as the trough finally moves into our region. Wednesday, the base of the trough is over our region and it will be windy with gusts in the 15-25 mph range common and temperatures about 20 degrees cooler than today. The ridge over the area today is breaking down causing increasing cloud cover and decreasing stability. Tomorrow will be much cooler and showery.
330 PM EDT Tue May 28 2024 A cold front will move through this evening.
Max POPs through the early-mid afternoon hours are over the NW Alleghenies and trend lower into the Lower Susquehanna Valley. Min temps will be in the low to mid 50s or near to slightly above (+5F) late May climo.
Clouds may limit our afternoon highs, but we are already in the low to middle 80s, so I decided not to adjust temperatures much.
By tomorrow, a thermal trough will strengthen and gale force winds are possible by late afternoon/early evening.
(This evening through Wednesday) High pressure will develop over the MS River Valley and slowly move east through the short term. Wednesday morning, as the high pressure moves east, flow will shift to out of the southeast, bringing warm and moist air beginning to advect into the western part of the state.
329 PM EDT Tue May 28 2024 A cold front exits to the southeast tonight with a few showers possible.
For tomorrow, PWATS will continue to remain above normal with plenty of moisture in the lower atmosphere.
Winds today will be breezy as we mix into the stronger winds and cooler air aloft. Weak and quick moving ridge begins to slide into the western portion of the forecast area by late tonight, bringing clearing skies and winds shifting to the south. South to southeasterly flow brings in relatively warmer air, although highs remain near average for this time of year (in the 70s).
138 PM EDT Tue May 28 2024 Unsettled, showery, and cooler weather will continue through Wednesday as a slow moving upper level disturbance moves through the area.
A cold front will approach the region today, with warm southwest flow ahead of the front. Cold front moves through this evening bringing northwest winds behind the front. A cold front passage tonight into Wednesday morning will support lingering showers over the W Central Mtns.
142 PM EDT Tue May 28 2024 Drier and cooler weather will continue moving into the region as high pressure builds in from the upper Mississippi Valley. The lower dew points and clearing skies overnight will help drop temps down into the low 60's in most spots and likely some spots hit the 50's across the western and northern Midlands.
Heading into Wednesday night, it will clear out as high pressure starts to build further into the region. Mid level flow will become highly amplified with a sharp ridge translating east across the region through the latter part of the week. Once the ridge moves off to the east, a more zonal pattern will ensue with a series of short waves tracking through the flow.
Behind the outflow boundary, temperatures and dewpoints have started to recover, shown by some areas warming back up to the mid 80s with dewpoints in the low 60s.
A cooler morning with lows in the mid 50s to lower 60s. Dew points have started to drop behind Mondays cold front and should drop more later today.
Synoptically, upper level ridging resides over the Rockies, bookended by longwave troughing over each coast of the US. At the surface, broad high pressure is noted across the OH Valley. Lower heights aloft and cloud cover will suppress afternoon temps as well, with highs expected in the low to mid 70s.
(Rest of today through Wednesday) Shower and thunderstorm chances will increase today as troughing moves into the eastern US displacing the mid-lvl ridge which had been in place over our area the last couple days. At the same time a weak cold front will shift into the vicinity of Northern Florida and then largely stall north of the area for much of the upcoming week. The low- lvl mean flow will still have a mean westerly component, making the east coast sea breeze once again the main forcing mechanism for convection and also focusing the highest rain chances over the eastern Interior and east coast metro.
High pressure following the fropa will build over the southeastern US through tonight and into early Wednesday with dry weather, clearing skies, and slightly cooler temperatures. High temperatures for this afternoon will reach up into the 90s with overnight low temperatures dropping down into the mid to upper 60s over inland areas and in the lower 70s along the coastline.
Upper level ridging builds across the Northern Plains Wednesday, keeping conditions dry across our area. Highs during this time look to remain seasonal, with temperatures forecast to rise into the low to mid 70s.
215 PM EDT Tue May 28 2024 A cooler and drier air mass will gradually build into the region through the end of the week, with high pressure moving across the region at the start of the weekend.
347 PM EDT Tue May 28 2024 A surface cold front will move southeast through the area overnight as a weak area of low pressure lingers across the Upper Ohio Valley through Wednesday.
403 PM EDT Tue May 28 2024 A cold front will shift offshore tonight. High pressure will build in from the west mid to late week, passing overhead and then offshore over the weekend. This is indicated by W to NW winds far inland and dew points dropping into the lower 60s. Tonight: The mid-levels will consist of a longwave trough over the eastern half of the U. At the surface, a stationary front meandering along our coast in the early evening will transition into a cold front by late evening, then move further offshore and away from our area. Broad High pressure will be centered over the northern MS Valley overnight, with its periphery building into our region, especially after midnight. Lows will range from the lower 60s far inland to the lower 70s at the beaches.
142 PM EDT Tue May 28 2024 A cooler and drier air mass will gradually build into the region through the end of the week, with high pressure moving across the region at the start of the weekend.
Wednesday will see the upper-level ridging be ushered out by a trough digging across the PACNW. The bulk of the disturbance is expected to remain to the north of the CWA but a cold front will begin to sweep across the region during that time. These areas look to have favorable dynamics with dewpoints near 40 and some shear present through the low to mid atmosphere.
This boundary will settle across the region Wednesday with high pressure to the north helping to bring some drier air back into the area.
318 PM EDT Tue May 28 2024 Unsettled, showery, and cooler weather will continue through Wednesday evening as a slow moving upper level disturbance moves through the area.
1157 AM EDT Tue May 28 2024 Drier, cooler weather moves in this week behind a front as high pressure builds in from the upper Mississippi Valley. Regional radar showing some scattered convection moving northeastward across the Coastal Plain brushing the eastern Midlands counties while the cold front remains to our west early this morning in the Upstate. Upper trough axis is also to our west currently and will cross the forecast area this afternoon. Expect overnight lows to be a couple of categories cooler with lows in the lower 60s. Dry, high pressure builds into the area from the northwest on Wednesday. Temperatures will be cooler than the previous few days with the northerly flow drawing cooler air into the region.
137 PM EDT Tue May 28 2024 A cold front will stall near the coast today. High pressure will return for the second half of the week. Highs should peak in the lower 90s almost all the way to the beaches, but lower dewpoints will make it feel a bit less sticky and humid compared to the past few days. Tonight: High pressure will build in from the west overnight as a stalled front begins to push farther offshore. Lows will range from the lower 60s well inland to the lower 70s at the beaches. Bonneau and Moncks Corner) a bit warmer given water temperatures are in the upper 70s/lower 80s. High pressure remains the dominant surface feature through late week. Aloft, broad troughing persists over the eastern U.
1156 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024 (Rest of Today) Tranquil weather across the Tennessee Valley this morning, with high pressure at the in control of our sensible weather.
This trough will be the main driver of convection today which aided by 300-600 J/kg of SBCAPE, 20-40 kts of 0-6km shear, and steep 8-10 degree 700-500 mb lapse rates, will support the potential for strong downdrafts and dry microbursts, supporting gusts in excess of 50 mph. As these storms decrease in intensity after sunset, a cold front will begin moving through SRN Idaho tonight into Wednesday which will support strong synoptic winds during the daytime hours in addition to keeping our isolated to scattered showers and storms going through the night into tomorrow. These above normal temperatures will be short lived however as colder air settles in midweek behind this cold front with highs about 10-20 degrees colder in the 50s/60s for Wednesday.
1058 AM MDT Tue May 28 2024 - Warmer today and Wednesday - Thunderstorms return Wednesday afternoon and evening with potential for large hail/damaging wind - Chance of showers/thunderstorms continue through the weekend Current surface map places trough across eastern Montana into northwestern South Dakota. For today, upper level ridge over the Rockies shifts into the plains. As ridge shifts east of the area tonight, modest theta-e advection and steep mid level lapse rates may bring some isolated showers/thunderstorms. Windy and warmer on Wednesday as upper trough moves across the northern Rockies.
1143 AM EDT Tue May 28 2024 A CU field has set up along and south of the cold front that is currently set up over central GA. Highs will be a bit cooler in the 80s across the area, but still plenty warm.
100 PM MST Tue May 28 2024 Dry and mostly tranquil conditions will be the norm over the next several days as highs across the lower deserts reach into the triple digits.
Discussion: The remainder of today should be pleasant as dew points have dropped into the lower 50s west and mid to upper 50s elsewhere. In the upper levels, a digging upper trough covered the eastern third of the country. This trough will dig a little farther south tonight and Wednesday. This will keep the area in a northwest flow with cooler temperatures and low relative humidities due to lower dewpoints. Highs again in the 70s to lower 80s, slightly cooler northeast sections.
Now that the front has cleared the area we'll be left with NW flow, drier weather and slightly cooler temperatures. Highs today and tomorrow will be in the low to mid 80s with cooler temps in the higher elevations of NE Georgia.
and appears poised to continue the trend with Colorado supercells congealing into more large clusters and a line between about 00z (7 pm and late evening from the KS/CO state line, and weakening in the less favorable lapse rate environment east of the highway 83 corridor towards midnight. For tomorrow, PWATS will continue to remain above normal with plenty of moisture in the lower atmosphere.
(Through Wednesday) Large-scale troughing shifts off to the east gradually while ridging builds over the Plains. Meanwhile, we're still embedded in northwesterly flow aloft, though now behind a cold front, meaning drier air is overtaking the area. Otherwise, lows will be "cooler" tonight, settling in the mid to upper 60s. Highs will once again be hot tomorrow in the lower to middle 90s.
Dry and mostly tranquil conditions will be the norm over the next several days as highs across the lower deserts reach into the triple digits.
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: The fast-moving ridge of high pressure today is already shifting eastward across the region, pushed by an upper low pressure trough approaching from Alberta. Overnight and into Wednesday as the front moves east, the low level jet strengthens, pulling moisture northward along the Montana/North Dakota border.
A ridge of high pressure will continue building allowing for temperatures to climb a couple degrees warmer than yesterday. Zooming out and looking at the overall upper air pattern, a strong storm system moving ashore this afternoon over the Canadian Rockies will result in a weak trough extending down the western CONUS.
1012 PM EDT Tue May 28 2024 A cold front will shift offshore tonight. High pressure will build in from the west mid to late week, passing overhead and then offshore over the weekend. The stationary front is starting to transition into a cold front, found near the immediate coast late Tuesday. The front will push further out to sea, as strong high pressure in the Upper Mississippi Valley starts to build southeast. Skies will be mainly clear, and with winds becoming light northwest, or in some areas calm, we expect lows to get down to the lower and middle 60s far inland, upper 60s over much of the coastal counties, except lower 70s at and near the coast.
650 PM EDT Tue May 28 2024 A cold front will shift offshore tonight. High pressure will build in from the west mid to late week, passing overhead and then offshore over the weekend. Tonight: The mid-levels will consist of a longwave trough over the eastern half of the U. At the surface, a stationary front meandering along our coast in the early evening will transition into a cold front by late evening, then move further offshore and away from our area. Broad High pressure will be centered over the northern MS Valley overnight, with its periphery building into our region, especially after midnight. Lows will range from the lower 60s far inland to the lower 70s at the beaches.
Still anticipating some valley fog development overnight as some of the lower clouds clear out and very light southwesterly winds persist. Heading into Wednesday night, it will clear out as high pressure starts to build further into the region. Mid level flow will become highly amplified with a sharp ridge translating east across the region through the latter part of the week. Once the ridge moves off to the east, a more zonal pattern will ensue with a series of short waves tracking through the flow.
726 PM EDT Tue May 28 2024 A cold front will move through this evening.