Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1245 PM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025 Updated at 1240 PM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025 - A cold front will approach the Mid-South late Tuesday, bringing a potential of severe weather for areas north of the I-40 corridor.
Above normal temperatures Tuesday with highs mainly in the lower 80s. Discussion: A ridge of high pressure in the mid/upper levels today will shift eastward through tonight and tomorrow as a low pressure system moves across the Great Lakes.
Temperatures will remain cooler than climatological average today, but will overall be trending warmer this week. Otherwise, warmer than average temperatures continue until the end of the week.
- A few additional storms should develop after midnight along a cold front. Given the highly favorable shear/instability parameters, very large hail to around baseball size would be likely with any persistent supercell, along with potential for damaging RFD winds. After the first storms depart to the east, after midnight there is potential for a second round of storms as a cold front presses southward. The continued push of the cold front should keep the severe risk lower, but some large hail and damaging wind gusts should remain possible before sunrise.
445 AM MDT Thu Jun 5 2025 - Cooler and wetter conditions expected through the end of the work week. This will be largely dependent upon both our temperatures as well as how much clearing we can get from overnight activity, but with highs expected only in the low to mid 60's we will definitely need some assistance if we're going to see anything stronger.
643 AM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025 A typical summer diurnal pattern unfolds through the period as an upper ridge builds over the northern Gulf and Deep South, with a series of perturbations passing over our region along the northern periphery of the ridge in a mostly west-northwesterly mid/upper level flow. Meanwhile, a low-level ridge will persist from the Atlantic across the Gulf, maintaining light southwesterly winds across our area. High temperatures Friday will be warmer, and should range from 88 to 93 degrees, with apparent temperatures (heat indices) in upper 90s to lower 100s.
651 AM EDT Thu Jun 5 2025 Low pressure will track into the Carolinas today bringing clouds and a few rain showers to the area. Areas of light rain will move into portions of northern North Carolina and southern Virginia ahead of the low, but overall coverage of rain looks spotty at best. Rain chance remain through the afternoon across southern Virginia and North Carolina, with little to no rain along or west of the Blue Ridge.
A slow moving cold front approaches late in the work week, with showers and thunderstorms at times through the weekend. Morning low level stratus stretching through the heart of the forecast area has kept hourly temperatures a few degrees cooler than anticipated, so adjusted down accordingly. After a quiet weather morning a cold front draped across to our west slowly approaches bringing showers and storms to the area starting as early as this mid afternoon. Abundant moisture over the area in advance of a cold front will combine with an upper level short wave to produce showers and thunderstorms on Friday. Some large hail is also possible with a freezing level around 13K feet.
Thus, have made some minor downward adjustments to PoPs this morning based on recent trends but latest CAMs do show a slight uptick in coverage during peak heating this afternoon and evening with most favored areas being inland with the low level flow mainly out of the southwest. Otherwise, much less perception and cloud coverage than yesterday will yield notably warmer temperatures with highs reaching the upper 80s to low 90s this afternoon, which will be around seasonal around this time of the year. A trough of low pressure surface and aloft over the Florida peninsula continues to produce scattered showers and thunderstorms over the coastal waters early this morning. As the trough lifts away from the region, deep layer moisture will decrease.
638 AM EDT Thu Jun 5 2025 (Today and tonight) An upper level low will begin to lift out of the region this afternoon but on its way out it will lead to another day of widespread shower and thunderstorm activity. As the upper level low pushes northeast through the day and upper level ridging begins to slowly build in from the west, most of the widespread activity should spread north and east.
539 AM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025 (Tonight through Friday night) Mid-level ridging will continue build and provide subsidence over the region through Friday.
(Tonight through Friday night) Key Message: - Increasingly dry and warmer conditions expected Thursday-Friday. Mid to upper level ridging continues to build over South Central Texas with this feature remaining through the short term period resulting in warmer and drier weather.
1210 PM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025 (Today through Friday) Key Messages: - Increasingly dry and warmer conditions expected Thursday-Friday. Subtropical ridging will tighten its grasp on South Central Texas Thursday, with drier and warmer conditions expected, particularly out west along the Rio Grande where temperatures will near the 100 degree mark or exceed it. Temperatures elsewhere will climb into the lower to middle 90s, and when factoring in the increased humidity from recent rains, it'll feel like 100-105 Thursday afternoon. Temperatures will only continue to increase as the subtropical ridge moves over deep south Texas on Friday.
Lingering moisture and a trough still in the region will lead to scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms through this afternoon over northern parts of the state, with the highest coverage along/north of a line from Grand Canyon to Kayenta. High pressure is forecast to build across the Southwest starting on Friday.
observations from GOES East highlight a weak, lingering low pressure system directing high altitude cloud cover across the Florida Keys. High pressure off the Mid- Atlantic coastline will continue to move eastward and merge with a stronger high centered near the Azores.
Key Messages: 1) Scattered showers and thunderstorm chances increase for areas west of the Blue Ridge tomorrow. An approaching frontal boundary Friday afternoon will provide forcing for scattered showers and thunderstorms for much of the area west of the Blue Ridge, with isolated thunderstorms east of the Blue Ridge. With freezing levels around 10000ft on Friday, the hail threat will be minimal given the low instability levels. Temperatures overnight should drop into the low 60s to upper 50s again across the area, with highs climbing into the mid to upper 80s east of the Blue Ridge, and upper 70s to low 80s west of the Blue Ridge.
75") and weak instability will keep scattered showers and isolated storms in the vicinity of a lingering low level trough along and east of the Interstate 69 corridor this afternoon into early this evening. Shower coverage should diminish tonight into Friday morning with low stratus and patchy drizzle/fog in the vicinity of the weak trough expected to sink slowly southeast.
Currently have upper trough extending from the Northern Rockies down through central CA with a few embedded impulses within the trough.
Issued by National Weather Service Albany NY 331 PM EDT Thu Jun 5 2025 A cold front will produce scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms this afternoon, with a few stronger storms capable of small hail, gusty winds and brief heavy downpours.
Daily afternoon/evening mountain thunderstorm chances (10-15%) will continue today and through the weekend over the High Sierra.
Upper-level ridging begins to strengthen on Friday leading to drier and warmer conditions.
Nonetheless, a warm front continues to lift northward near the I-20 corridor and a LLJ will gradually develop over our area through the day.
1230 PM MDT Thu Jun 5 2025 - Cooler and wetter conditions expected through the end of the work week. This will be largely dependent upon both our temperatures as well as how much clearing we can get from overnight activity, but with highs expected only in the low to mid 60's we will definitely need some assistance if we're going to see anything stronger.
Weak troughing over the area today will bring precipitation and isolated storms to the Central Idaho mountains. As the trough exits southeastward tonight, a warming and drying trend sets in while high pressure builds aloft.
Strong ridging in the mid and upper levels will keep rain chances very low (0-7%) tonight through the weekend. Strong subsidence associated with the ridge combined with the arrival of Saharan Dust will lead to hazy conditions with visibilities around 5-6 miles at times over the weekend.
At the surface, high pressure remains sprawled out over the region. Weak isentropic ascent courtesy of rising 850mb temperatures may support rain showers across the west half by day break, before becoming more widespread through the day Friday across the forecast area as the trough swings through. Meanwhile, temperatures should come in cooler than today, peaking in the lower/mid 60s in the western UP and the upper 60s to near 70F to the east.
Weak upper trough over the interior northwestern US developed showers in central and eastern Idaho this afternoon. The trough will exit east Friday allowing a broad Pacific upper ridge to bring warmer air to our CWA through the weekend.
Cloud coverage stay in place as upper level low continues to move away form the region. Afternoon highs climb up into the low to mid 90s with west to southwesterly winds prevailing.
As this occurs, should see additional development on this boundary and even further to the south along an additional trough axis near the CO/KS border. Over the weekend, deep upper low develops over the upper Midwest, while upper level ridge builds over the wrn U.
Outside of earlier storms, quiet and mild conditions are expected tonight with lows in the lower 70s.
An elongated positively tilted 500 mb trough will move east through the forecast area today.
643 PM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025 (Tonight through Friday night) Key Message: - Increasingly dry and warmer conditions expected Thursday-Friday. Mid to upper level ridging continues to build over South Central Texas with this feature remaining through the short term period resulting in warmer and drier weather.
953 PM EDT Thu Jun 5 2025 A cold front crosses the region tonight.
800 PM EDT Thu Jun 5 2025 A cold front will slowly move eastward into the Upper Ohio Valley and stall through Friday. Rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected through the weekend, as waves of low pressure track along the boundary.
920 PM EDT Thu Jun 5 2025 A cold front will slowly move eastward into the Upper Ohio Valley and stall through Friday. Rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected through the weekend, as waves of low pressure track along the boundary. KEY MESSAGES: - Decreasing coverage and intensity of showers/thunderstorms overnight --------------------------------------------------------------- Outside of weak convergence along the higher terrain where storms are continuing to develop (but sitting generally just east of the forecast area), the loss of diurnal heating and exit of an MCV has resulted in a downward trend in shower and thunderstorm activity.
1015 PM EDT Thu Jun 5 2025 A cold front will stall just south of our area through Friday night.
356 AM EDT Fri Jun 6 2025 A weak area of low pressure over eastern North Carolina will move offshore by this evening.
Zonal flow aloft is expected for most of today as an upper high sits over southern Texas and an upper trough tracks through the Central Plains. Will see a wide range of high temperatures today due to cooler temperatures following the boundary. Highs over northern portions of the CWA will be in the low to upper 80s while highs over southern portions of the South Plains and Rolling Plains will be at or slightly above 90.
220 AM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025 Through Tonight: This morning our area is at the interface between suppression associated with a mid level ridge extending from the western Gulf into the Lower MS Valley and a regime of more active flow from the Great Plains through the Ohio Valley to New England. Given marginally supportive deep shear and moderate to strong instability, a few severe storms cannot be ruled out across mainly northeastern portions of our area on the periphery of the upper ridging.
Max temps will push into the lower 90s area wide as the westerly flow pushes the heat all the way to the Atlantic Beaches along the peak heat indices around 100F. Scattered strong to locally severe storms still possible during the afternoon hours with gusty winds and heavy rainfall, but slightly warmer temps aloft should limit any widespread severe weather threat. Convection will fade with loss of heating just after sunset this evening with fair skies overnight along with mild temps in the lower 70s inland and mid/upper 70s along the Atlantic Coast.
Strong surface heating with dew points in the low to mid 60s should result in SBCAPE exceeding 1000 J/kg.
347 AM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025 - Cooler with light rain today, mainly during the morning and early afternoon hours.
The remainder of today, high pressure surface and aloft will build over the region. Could even be a bit conservative with max temps as they could be even a bit warmer than currently forecast should the dry air aloft mix down during the afternoon hours.
A mid- to upper-level ridge will continue to dominate the weather pattern across South Texas through the weekend, maintaining strong subsidence that will suppress vertical motion and effectively limit any convective development.
1221 AM EDT Fri Jun 6 2025 Weak low pressure will move north of the area through tonight. As the aforementioned low officially moves offshore and well away from the region on Friday morning, a weak cold front could potentially pass through the region in the early morning hours of Friday.
206 AM EDT Fri Jun 6 2025 A cold front will stall just south of our area through Friday night.
Morning lows continue to hover into the upper 40s to middle 50s across the lower elevations, perhaps as warm as 60 in the highest peaks. A slight warming trend is expected to continue today with an upper level ridge building into the Pacific Northwest and southwestern Canada; high temperatures today reach the upper 70s to the middle 80s in the inland valleys, into the lower 90s for the warmest spots, around the 70s across the San Francisco Bayshore, and into the lower to middle 60s along the Pacific coast.
Visible satellite imagery indicates breaks in the low cloud cover along and north of the boundary.
- Warmer and drier into the weekend, with breezy to windy conditions.
1014 AM EDT Fri Jun 6 2025 A weak area of low pressure over eastern North Carolina will move offshore by this evening.
Today, high temperatures are expected to reach into the low to mid 80s with tonight's lows dropping to the mid to upper 60s.
/26/ (Saturday Night through Friday) By tomorrow evening, a more organized trough will push south and east out of Oklahoma over the Ouachitas, and with this forcing mechanism the next organized round of storms will sweep into the ArkLaTex from the north Saturday evening, pushing south overnight.
712 AM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025 - Band of showers & t-storms along a cold front moving thru E ND and NW MN Saturday mid and late aftn/early evening may bring isolated severe wind gusts.
High pressure off the Mid-Atlantic coastline will continue to move eastward and merge with a stronger high centered near the Azores.
618 AM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025 A mid- to upper-level ridge will continue to dominate the weather pattern across South Texas through the weekend, maintaining strong subsidence that will suppress vertical motion and effectively limit any convective development.
616 AM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025 Through Tonight: This morning our area is at the interface between suppression associated with a mid level ridge extending from the western Gulf into the Lower MS Valley and a regime of more active flow from the Great Plains through the Ohio Valley to New England. Given marginally supportive deep shear and moderate to strong instability, a few severe storms cannot be ruled out across mainly northeastern portions of our area on the periphery of the upper ridging. This weekend: The ridging will begin to retreat with the more active mesoscale storm track nudging further southward into our area potentially as early as late morning Saturday.
554 AM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025 - Cooler with light rain today, mainly during the morning and early afternoon hours.
Saturday, ridging begins to develop across the western CONUS which will be the start of a warming trend for the area as high temperatures are currently forecast to rebound in to the mid 80s across the area.
Convection will remain just out of reach the next two days as mid- level ridging amplifies over south Texas.
656 AM EDT Fri Jun 6 2025 (Today through Saturday) A considerable plume of Saharan Dust is forecast to remain in place across South Florida through the period, while an area of high pressure will continue to build in from the western Atlantic while ridging sets up aloft. The combination of this blocking pattern and the presence of the Saharan dust will help inhibit widespread convective development each day. Temperatures today will climb back into the upper 80s for the East Coast and up to the low to mid 90s across southwest Florida. Conditions warm up even further on Saturday thanks to the influence of the lingering Saharan dust, with highs reaching the low 90s across the East Coast, and potentially hitting the mid to upper 90s over southwest FL.
Temperatures look like they have bottomed out in the lower 80s with continuous gentle breezes out of the southeast. It is very unlikely that this would be enough to overpower the SAL and ridging, so we don't expect any active weather in the immediate future associated with these boundaries. High pressure off the Mid-Atlantic coastline will continue to move eastward and merge with a stronger high centered near the Azores.
Isolated convection will be possible across the higher terrain of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona, the Mojave Preserve, and Sierra this afternoon.
618 AM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025 - A cold front will bring a 40 to 70% chance of thunderstorms Saturday afternoon/evening, highest east of the Missouri River.
Afternoon highs are expected to peak into the low 90s areawide. /CR/ Through Tonight: This morning our area is at the interface between suppression associated with a mid level ridge extending from the western Gulf into the Lower MS Valley and a regime of more active flow from the Great Plains through the Ohio Valley to New England. Given marginally supportive deep shear and moderate to strong instability, a few severe storms cannot be ruled out across mainly northeastern portions of our area on the periphery of the upper ridging. This weekend: The ridging will begin to retreat with the more active mesoscale storm track nudging further southward into our area potentially as early as late morning Saturday.
552 AM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025 - On and off showers and isolated storms will continue into Saturday, with the highest chances being Saturday morning (50-70%). Dry air in the low levels is making it difficult for anything significant to make it to the ground. The upper-level pattern shows a negatively-tilted trough over the Inter-Mountain West this morning with relatively zonal flow across the Central Plains. Saturday morning we see the negatively-tilted trough move across our region, bringing a more substantial chance for showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms, but again, limited instability should keep anything from becoming severe.
By Saturday, high pressure will build in, leading to drier conditions and more sunshine, with temps rising into the upper 70s to low 80s.
1258 PM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025 - A cold front will bring a 40 to 70% chance of thunderstorms Saturday afternoon/evening, highest east of the Missouri River.
1030 AM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025 - Band of showers & t-storms along a cold front moving thru E ND and NW MN Saturday mid and late aftn/early evening may bring isolated severe wind gusts.
Another day of terrain-based isolated showers and thunderstorms as an elongated trough over the region taps into persistent anomalous moisture. An elongated trough stretched across the Desert Southwest will close off of the southern California Coast today as it ejects a vorticity maxima across the Mojave Desert. A ridge of high pressure over northern Mexico will begin to nose northward through the Desert Southwest this weekend, which will help clear out left over moisture.
slightly warmer on Saturday but with dry/comfortable dew point and humidity, and a slight cool down for Mon-Tue.
1042 AM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025 - A cold front will bring a 40 to 70% chance of thunderstorms Saturday afternoon/evening, highest east of the Missouri River.
- Warmer Saturday, with a decrease in storm chances, and only some isolated activity expected over the mountains and along the New Mexico border.
352 PM EDT Fri Jun 6 2025 Showers and thunderstorms are lifting across the area associated with a surface warm front. The wet weather, with reduced chances for heavy rainfall, will linger overnight into Saturday morning before the low pressure system moves to our east and drags a weak cold front through the area. A secondary cold front will follow Saturday afternoon. The second half of the weekend should be mostly dry as ridging briefly builds over the region. We should start off with ample sunshine, but some fair weather cumulus could bubble up in the afternoon, especially over the higher terrain.
With the subtropical ridge building into south central Texas, temperatures will continue to remain above normal on Saturday.
Modified soundings and SPC mesoanalysis show about 1500 J/kg of MLCAPE with fairly high freezing levels and poor mid level lapse rates. The leading jet max on this system works in tangent with the approaching height trough to create broad ascent most of the day Saturday. The position of these fields seems to suggest at least some scattered severe cells or MCS potential but very divergent CAM solutions point towards another fairly narrow window where the higher probability of more organized weather appears to the south of our CWA.
217 PM MDT Fri Jun 6 2025 - Breezy to locally windy conditions, especially along the Rocky Mountain Front, will diminish tonight with a turn to north or northwest winds and cooler temperatures expected Saturday.
Anomalously high freezing levels and marginal lapse rates will limit the threat for large hail, though smaller hail could be common.
348 PM EDT Fri Jun 6 2025 Showers and thunderstorms are lifting across the area associated with a surface warm front. The wet weather, with reduced chances for heavy rainfall, will linger overnight into Saturday morning before the low pressure system moves to our east and drags a weak cold front through the area. A secondary cold front will follow Saturday afternoon. The second half of the weekend should be mostly dry as ridging briefly builds over the region. We should start off with ample sunshine, but some fair weather cumulus could bubble up in the afternoon, especially over the higher terrain.
1236 PM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025 - Band of showers & t-storms along a cold front moving thru E ND and NW MN Saturday mid and late aftn/early evening may bring isolated severe wind gusts.
345 PM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025 - A cold front will bring a 40 to 70% chance of thunderstorms Saturday afternoon/evening, highest east of the Missouri River.
The lows associated cold front will bring the potential for severe weather across the region Saturday as it propagates east.
Temperatures have warmed into the lower 80's atop dewpoints in the low to mid 70's this afternoon.
1233 PM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025 - Cooler with light rain today, mainly during the morning and early afternoon hours.