Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Surface and midlevel flow will become south through southwesterly ushering in warmer air.
As high pressure remains in place this week, temperatures will warm up into a normal range as early as Tuesday and then to slightly above normal during the latter half of the week. Early afternoon objective analysis showed upper level ridging building in across the western CONUS leading to dry, clear conditions across the region. After a morning with observed lows in the mid to upper 30s to low 40s across the lower deserts, highs this afternoon will warm up several degrees higher than yesterday as temperatures climb into the mid 60s. Weak upper level ridging/quasi-zonal flow will prevail through the first part of this week allowing for dry conditions to continue and near normal temperatures to return.
Temperatures will fall to near freezing across most of the region by sunrise with highs tomorrow in the low to middle 50s.
/NEW/ /Tonight through Tuesday Night/ Clear and cold conditions are expected overnight as high pressure builds into North Texas and brisk northwest winds diminish. Temperatures are expected to fall to below freezing across our northern counties while everyone else remains in the low/mid 30s. Outside of a few passing cirrus, sunny skies will prevail and temperatures will climb back into the low/mid 60s for highs. A warmer night is expected Tuesday night with readings in the low 40s expected.
Stuck close to previous forecast lows, which were on the lower side of guidance suite. Temps may be a bit cooler over any lingering snow pack. Lacy (Through Tonight) Strong upper low is exiting the area this afternoon after bringing widespread rain and bands of snow to the region overnight last night and this morning. A few light snow showers still remain over parts of far northwest Arkansas and into far eastern Oklahoma, but temperatures above freezing will keep any additional accumulations or impacts very minimal. Other locations saw snow accumulate while precipitation was falling and then quickly melt by daybreak as temperatures stayed above freezing for the duration of the event.
As was mentioned in the previous discussion, the warmer temperatures will lead to enhanced runoff from melting snow in some areas, but nothing of any concern.
High pressure will provide dry and mild conditions across the region through the end of the week including warmer temperatures.
A weak cold front was draped across northeastern Minnesota this afternoon with an area of low pressure near Marquette. Weak high pressure will build in on Tuesday and there should be some peaks of sun across the region along with the lake effect snow showers along the South Shore ending as winds become light and variable by the afternoon hours.
Later Tonight, a cold front will move southeastward across the forecast area. pdf A mid level trough of low pressure near the lower MS Valley will eject northeast toward the Mid Atlantic with prefrontal trough moving toward and then into SE GA and NE FL this late afternoon and evening. Nevertheless, will have to watch how the low atmosphere evolves, but for now looks like CAPE will be limited between 300 to 500 J/kg over I-75 corridor which at this time looks like the most favored for stronger convection. Cold front will move over SE GA and NE FL during the overnight hours with lows dropping into the the mid to upper 40s north of I-10 and 50-54 degree range south of I-10.
741 PM EST Mon Feb 12 2024 Low pressure will track across Virginia overnight, then off of the Delmarva Peninsula Tuesday morning.
Thawing temperatures prevail in the south while freezing temperatures prevail in the north. ----BMickelson Previous discussion: Northwest flow with ridge to the west will bring occasional chances for precipitation over the next few day. Measurable snow is unlikely as the highest probability is at most 10%. With the temperatures above freezing for most locations today, the is also a possibility of freezing rain this evening, but again it should not be measurable. The light snow could be mixed with light rain or light freezing rain mainly south of the Missouri River.
pdf A mid level trough of low pressure near the lower MS Valley will eject northeast toward the Mid Atlantic with prefrontal trough moving toward and then into SE GA and NE FL this late afternoon and evening. Nevertheless, will have to watch how the low atmosphere evolves, but for now looks like CAPE will be limited between 300 to 500 J/kg over I-75 corridor which at this time looks like the most favored for stronger convection. Cold front will move over SE GA and NE FL during the overnight hours with lows dropping into the the mid to upper 40s north of I-10 and 50-54 degree range south of I-10.
630 PM CST Mon Feb 12 2024 (This evening through Tuesday Night) As the upper level low crosses the Mississippi Valley and departs to the northeast this evening, the broadening of today's tight pressure gradient will allow for winds to become light through the overnight hours. Skies look to begin to clear from west to east shortly after sunset, allowing temperatures to rapidly fall, aided by the calming winds, into the low to mid 30s across the ArkLaTex by daybreak. As ridging begins to build in from the west tomorrow, temperatures will climb into the upper 50s to lower 60s under abundant sunshine and noticeably quieter winds, which will become southwesterly to southerly as the day continues, followed by another chilly night with lows dropping into the 30s areawide, under mostly clear skies broken only by the arrival of some scattered high clouds.
509 PM CST Mon Feb 12 2024 (This evening through Tuesday) Fair weather is expected through the short term period as northwest flow aloft backs ahead of an upper level ridge that will move overhead on Tuesday. Otherwise, another clear night should allow for good radiational cooling while increasing heights/thicknesses with the ridge moving overhead combined with a bit of downslope warming point to a significant jump in temperatures Tuesday, especially for areas without lingering deep snowpack.
713 PM EST Mon Feb 12 2024 A low pressure system moving through the Tennessee Valley will bring a chance of rain and snow to areas along and southeast of I-71 tonight.
522 PM CST Mon Feb 12 2024 (Tonight through Tuesday night) An upper low is currently located over Arkansas with northwest flow over South Central Texas in its wake. Breezy northwest wind this afternoon will decrease late afternoon with light winds expected this evening and overnight as high pressure settles in over the area.
30", which places in the lowest 10th percentile for this time of the year. Overnight lows tonight will be quite chilly once again with most of the region expected to drop into the lower to upper 40s, with some spots dropping into the mid 30s. Temperatures for tomorrow night will rebound to the warmer side our northern counties in the mid to upper 40s while the rest of the CWA climbs into the 50s. For tomorrow afternoon, clear and sunny skies will promote warmer temperatures compared to today with most the region peaking in the lower to mid 70s.
539 PM CST Mon Feb 12 2024 (Through Tonight) Strong upper low is exiting the area this afternoon after bringing widespread rain and bands of snow to the region overnight last night and this morning. A few light snow showers still remain over parts of far northwest Arkansas and into far eastern Oklahoma, but temperatures above freezing will keep any additional accumulations or impacts very minimal. Other locations saw snow accumulate while precipitation was falling and then quickly melt by daybreak as temperatures stayed above freezing for the duration of the event.
746 PM EST Mon Feb 12 2024 Low pressure will track across Virginia overnight, then off of the Delmarva Peninsula Tuesday morning.
Quiet and dry weather tonight and Tuesday under high pressure.
There is one report at Winnipeg of freezing drizzle, but the saturated layer is much shallower (thus just stratus) farther south according to the RAP and 18Z NAM towards the US/Canada border. Because of this, snowfall amounts look to stay on the lower end, and mainly north of highway 200.
233 PM MST Mon Feb 12 2024 Northwest flow with ridge to the west will bring occasional chances for precipitation over the next few day. Measurable snow is unlikely as the highest probability is at most 10%. With the temperatures above freezing for most locations today, the is also a possibility of freezing rain this evening, but again it should not be measurable. The light snow could be mixed with light rain or light freezing rain mainly south of the Missouri River.
The next order of business will be the incoming arctic cold front on Tuesday.
215 AM CST Tue Feb 13 2024 - Next best rain chance comes with a strong cold front's passage at the end of the week.
400 AM EST Tue Feb 13 2024 High pressure briefly builds back into the region. Dry conditions will be favored the rest of the day, with weak high pressure building in from the northwest. Milder temps expected for Wednesday, with locations near the Tristate favorable to reach the lower to middle 50s.
Also had to increase overnight low temperatures in many locations based on latest observations and current model runs indicated warmer temps overnight. A northwest flow over the region today with an upper level ridge off the coast pushing up to Alaska.
1020 PM CST Mon Feb 12 2024 (Tonight through Tuesday night) An upper low is currently located over Arkansas with northwest flow over South Central Texas in its wake. Breezy northwest wind this afternoon will decrease late afternoon with light winds expected this evening and overnight as high pressure settles in over the area.
There have been no other reports in Manitoba of freezing drizzle (just a few flurries) which matches the trends supported by short term guidances and soundings. There is one report at Winnipeg of freezing drizzle, but the saturated layer is much shallower (thus just stratus) farther south according to the RAP and 18Z NAM towards the US/Canada border. Because of this, snowfall amounts look to stay on the lower end, and mainly north of highway 200.
259 AM EST Tue Feb 13 2024 High pressure briefly builds back into the region. Dry conditions will be favored the rest of the day, with weak high pressure building in from the northwest. Milder temps expected for Wednesday, with locations near the Tristate favorable to reach the lower to middle 50s.
1008 PM CST Mon Feb 12 2024 (This evening through Tuesday) Fair weather is expected through the short term period as northwest flow aloft backs ahead of an upper level ridge that will move overhead on Tuesday. Otherwise, another clear night should allow for good radiational cooling while increasing heights/thicknesses with the ridge moving overhead combined with a bit of downslope warming point to a significant jump in temperatures Tuesday, especially for areas without lingering deep snowpack.
This is a result of zonal flow and high pressure building across the Southeastern CONUS.
At the surface, high pressure currently over the area will get pushed east late tonight as low pressure approaches from the west. The boundary associated with the low may become the focus for some light precipitation late tonight and Tuesday as it tracks across the CWA. High pressure will begin to nose over the area Tuesday night, while low pressure sets up over eastern Colorado/western Nebraska. Low temperatures tonight will be in the lower to mid 20s. Lows Tuesday night will again be in the lower to mid 20s.
/44/ (This evening through Tuesday Night) As the upper level low crosses the Mississippi Valley and departs to the northeast this evening, the broadening of today's tight pressure gradient will allow for winds to become light through the overnight hours. Skies look to begin to clear from west to east shortly after sunset, allowing temperatures to rapidly fall, aided by the calming winds, into the low to mid 30s across the ArkLaTex by daybreak. As ridging begins to build in from the west tomorrow, temperatures will climb into the upper 50s to lower 60s under abundant sunshine and noticeably quieter winds, which will become southwesterly to southerly as the day continues, followed by another chilly night with lows dropping into the 30s areawide, under mostly clear skies broken only by the arrival of some scattered high clouds.
Despite some high clouds streaming overhead, expect highs to warm into the low to mid 70s region wide. Southwesterly flow returns overnight and allows for an influx of Pacific moisture in the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere, as low level southeasterly flow allows for an influx of Gulf moisture in the lower levels of the atmosphere. Otherwise, expect cloudy skies and high temperatures ranging from the low 70s to around 80 degrees.
As high pressure remains in place this week, temperatures will warm up into a normal range as early as Tuesday and then to slightly above normal during the latter half of the week.
An upper level trough continues to move across the area with a few light showers lingering tonight. Cooler and drier weather will follow Tuesday, with the next chance of precipitation arriving midweek.
Satellite imagery this evening showing an upper trough slowly carving southward through the Pac NW. Light showers are possible along the leading edge of the trough late tonight into Tuesday generally south of a line from Burns- Boise-Stanley. A stronger and wetter system will move in early Wed and extend into Wed night, lead by a warm front moving west to east. Total snow amounts will range from a dusting in the lower valleys, to around 5 inches in McCall, to 6-12 inches above 6000 ft. High temperatures will be a degree or two above normal Tuesday, warming to around 5 degrees above normal Wed after the warm front passes.
The Florida Keys are enduring a fairly nice evening with temperatures along the Island Chain in the mid 70s with dew points in the lower 70s. The wind profile shows winds mostly southwest winds through a deep part of the lower atmosphere meaning neutral advection. From synopsis, a potent winter storm system currently over Appalachia is expected to send a cold front southeastward through the Florida Keys overnight into early Tuesday morning.
This precip is being supported by a compact but very dynamic upper cyclone presently centered over central AR, and as this feature translates Ewrd thru the evening, precip will taper W-to-E with a mostly dry overnight expected. Mid/upper flow will de-amplify thru Wed with sfc ridging moving Ewrd along the Gulf Coast.
1234 AM EST Tue Feb 13 2024 A low pressure system moving through the Tennessee Valley will bring a chance of rain and snow to areas along and southeast of I-71 tonight.
1046 PM EST Mon Feb 12 2024 A low pressure system moving through the Tennessee Valley will bring a chance of rain and snow to areas along and southeast of I-71 tonight.
Surface dew points will remain in the 30s to near 40 today, but uptick into the low to mid 40s tonight.
Afternoon temperatures reach the lower 70s for the majority with mostly sunny skies.
930 PM CST Mon Feb 12 2024 A potent upper level low has crossed the region and is now in middle Tennessee. The upper low produced rain/snow mix across West Tennessee, with some portions of west Tennessee accumulating almost 2 inches of snow. As the low continues its easterly track, temperatures will warm up a few degrees and precipitation will shift back to rain resulting in melting any of the accumulated snow. There is a bit of rapid clearing skies behind this low so temperatures we adjusted slightly as radiational cooling begins. Temperatures will fall to near freezing across most of the region by sunrise with highs tomorrow in the low to middle 50s.
343 AM EST Wed Feb 13 2024 High pressure will build across the Southeast states through Wednesday night.
Flow aloft across the region will flatten out through the period, as high pressure at the surface continues building in from the west. Winds will remain northerly through much of the period, resulting in cooler drier conditions. Then tonight, expect mostly clear skies as lows fall into the low to mid 30s.
(Today and tonight) Temperatures will warm further today as low amplitude ridging builds in and mid-level temperatures continue to warm.
However, a general lack of forcing due to the front weakening and the passage occurring at a cooler time of day will inhibit the growth of the rain showers. Drier and slightly cooler air will take over behind the front with high temperatures today expected in the mid to upper 70s for most locations and near 80 for east coast metro areas. Dry conditions will continue on Wednesday with slight ridging present aloft plus the drier air mass.
Currently at the surface, the recent cold front is pushing through southern Florida, with breezy northwest winds today favoring cold air advection across the forecast area. Winds will relax Wednesday as broad high pressure sets up north of Florida and slowly shifts east into the Atlantic through the end of the week.
916 PM PST Mon Feb 12 2024 Mostly clear skies Tuesday with highs the same or a few degrees cooler than today west of the mountains and a few degrees warmer in the mountains and deserts.
1135 PM CST Mon Feb 12 2024 A potent upper level low has crossed the region and is now in middle Tennessee. The upper low produced rain/snow mix across West Tennessee, with some portions of west Tennessee accumulating almost 2 inches of snow. As the low continues its easterly track, temperatures will warm up a few degrees and precipitation will shift back to rain resulting in melting any of the accumulated snow. There is a bit of rapid clearing skies behind this low so temperatures we adjusted slightly as radiational cooling begins. Temperatures will fall to near freezing across most of the region by sunrise with highs tomorrow in the low to middle 50s.
The cold front has made it well past our area with areas of high pressure off to the west starting to build into the region.
So with increased thickness values and downsloping winds afternoon temperatures will have a nice bump up today into the lower to middle 60s. Here temperatures will only warm into the lower 50s as the snowpack continues to melt.
On the surface, high pressure is centered along the TX/LA coast and is forecast to move east through Wednesday, reaching the SC coast by the end of the period.
-Cooler but clear conditions are in store. Winds have gone to the WNW and are expected to prevail at any where from 15-20mph with gusts as high as 25 for the metro area and up to 35mph for the highest elevations of NW Georgia. Those winds will gradually decrease as the day goes on and high pressure builds in. High temps today will be in the low to mid 50s for most of the CWA with temps approaching freezing north of the fall line. That trend will continue tomorrow with highs in the upper 50s and lows and lows near freezing.
Owing in part to increasing moisture, expect warmer temperatures tonight.
- Cooler but clear conditions are in store. Winds have gone to the WNW and are expected to prevail at any where from 15-20mph with gusts as high as 25 for the metro area and up to 35mph for the highest elevations of NW Georgia. Those winds will gradually decrease as the day goes on and high pressure builds in. High temps today will be in the low to mid 50s for most of the CWA with temps approaching freezing north of the fall line. That trend will continue tomorrow with highs in the upper 50s and lows and lows near freezing.
531 AM CST Tue Feb 13 2024 (Today through Wednesday) The upper low is swinging through this morning, providing cloud cover to a good portion of the area through the morning. As the low pulls away we will see some clearing in the northwest that will then spread south and east through the late morning. Clear and cold tonight as the high begins to build into the area. Temperatures really rebound on Wednesday with lots of sunshine as high pressure controls the area.
- Very mild again today, cooler on Wednesday but still a touch above normal.
934 AM EST Tue Feb 13 2024 All locations this morning are now post frontal as the cold front clears the Florida Peninsula to the south.
627 AM EST Wed Feb 13 2024 High pressure will build across the Southeast states through Wednesday night.
208 AM MST Tue Feb 13 2024 Dry and tranquil conditions will persist across the region throughout the entire week as high pressure remains in place.
Updated Aviation Dry and tranquil conditions will persist across the region throughout the entire week as high pressure remains in place.
High pressure will move in from the northwest. On the high's southern edge, squeezed against a weak Colorado low to the south, a frontogenetic band of snow is expected to develop.
Precipiation remains the highest along the International Border with a 50 to 70 percent chance of snow in the morning. A cold front has passed through portions of eastern Montana with cold advection of the backside of the low. Low clouds are forecast to move eastward as the low progresses eastward.
KEY MESSAGES: - Winter Weather Advisory has been cancelled as low pressure exits east. With limited moisture in the DGZ and surface temperatures recovering to above freezing by this afternoon, no significant accumulation is expected. Orographic lift in the ridges will also keep light occasional snow in play there as well.
This low is very close in line with 00z Global Canadian, 06z HRRR and 06z NAM, which are farther north than the 00z GFS. Band of snow south of the low will move east, with 850 mb warm advection out ahead of the system focusing snow chances in the north half of the fcst area and southern Canada.
This in turn will jump the highs solidly into the 60s across the panhandles and likely make Wednesday the warmest day of the week.
The strong ridge along the west coast is beginning to get undercut as the main block lifts north toward southeast Alaska and the Yukon.
A line of snow showers continues to progress across central North Dakota as the warm front progresses eastward. Precipiation remains the highest along the International Border with a 50 to 70 percent chance of snow in the morning. A cold front has passed through portions of eastern Montana with cold advection of the backside of the low. Low clouds are forecast to move eastward as the low progresses eastward.
A line of showers has moved steadily eastward across the Gulf waters during the late night hours, and is currently approaching the Lower Keys. These showers mark an advancing cold front, which extends from complex low pressure over the Carolinas southward into the extreme SE Gulf. Ahead of the front, warm and humid conditions prevail along the Keys island chain, with temperatures in the mid 70s, dewpoints in the lower 70s, and winds from the SW at 10 to 15 mph. 7 inches along the advancing front, although model guidance and the low-topped nature of the showers suggest that significant dry air remains in the mid levels. For today, the cold front will continue to move quickly eastward and should clear the island chain by mid to late morning.
(Today through Wednesday) The upper low is swinging through this morning, providing cloud cover to a good portion of the area through the morning. As the low pulls away we will see some clearing in the northwest that will then spread south and east through the late morning. Clear and cold tonight as the high begins to build into the area. Temperatures really rebound on Wednesday with lots of sunshine as high pressure controls the area.
Discussion: Most of the active weather today is ongoing and will end near sunrise as a low pressure system is moving away from the area. First, we are seeing the midlevel deformation zone moving across eastern KY, Cumberland Plateau, and SW VA at the moment, with a few obs showing snow with temperatures just above freezing. 5-1 inch per hour, the above freezing near-surface temps will limit accumulation, especially at lower elevations. High pressure centered over MS/AL will extend across the area tonight, and lows will be in the upper 20s to lower 30s under clear skies.