Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
621 AM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025 - High chances for rain and thunderstorms are forecasted for Wednesday and Thursday with the highest chances for rain on Wednesday evening into the night. - Slightly cooler temperatures in the 70s to low 80s are expected Thursday due to cloud cover and a cold frontal passage. Wednesday, upper level trough over Wyoming will shift a bit to the southeast over western Nebraska later in the evening. So the severe threat is certainly on the lower side, but we are outlooked for a 5% chance from SPC, and that seems reasonable. Thursday's highs for the most part will be in the 70s given the cooler air in place, but further south of I-40 where the front may not progress, we could still see low to mid 80s for a high.
453 AM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025 - Low pressure will move into the area today and begin a prolonged period of wet conditions that will persist through the end of the work week. Low pressure anchored on that front is working across far southeast SD this morning. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms have been working toward the northwest across central SD near the vicinity of that trough early this morning with more widespread showers and storms building across NE into far southeast SD. Low pressure at the sfc and aloft will become a nearly stacked system over the next 24 hours across northern NE into southern SD.
- Moisture begins to dwindle on Thursday with another day of cooler temperatures.
The upper low is to our east, but we are still on the western periphery of its influence. Discussion: A closed low near the Chesapeake Bay will start to track farther east today and tomorrow, with a ridge over the MS Valley region. This pattern will be pretty static through the rest of the week, with the ridge building slightly toward the east. Under the building ridge, temperatures will be well above normal, with highs mainly in the 80s to near 90 in southern sections. The ridge loosens its grip on the area over the weekend as a trough over the northern Plains approaches the Great Lakes and OH Valley. However, we will likely remain dry through the weekend as the pattern will not have good moisture flux off the Gulf due to an E-W 850 mb ridge axis across AL/GA/SC.
Issued 423 AM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025 Today through Thursday: Another day of quiet and dry conditions beneath high pressure today with highs in the low to upper 80s. The high may also break down just enough to add a stray shower/storm west of Madison during the afternoon.
644 AM EDT Wed Sep 17 2025 High pressure remains in place but there is going to be more clouds this afternoon with a small chance of showers in NE PA into the Southern Catskills.
623 AM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025 - Moist airmass coming off the Gulf will combine with upper low eclipsing the southeast US to bring about the chance for isolated to scattered afternoon showers again today. - Temperatures should hold steady in the low 90s through the forecast period.
1057 AM EDT Wed Sep 17 2025 High pressure will maintain fair weather through Thursday.
629 AM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025 (Today through Thursday) Additional subtle impulses aloft will drift southward atop our region today, guided by a low pressure system over coastal Virginia. In the low levels, a broad pattern of confluence will continue. The Mid-Atlatic low pressure system will zip northeastward Wednesday night into Thursday as it is absorbed by a larger trough to its north. High temperatures will run between 5-10 degrees above seasonal normals, with upper 80s to lower 90s forecast for today and more- so in the lower 90s for Thursday.
907 AM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025 - Low pressure will move into the area today and begin a prolonged period of wet conditions that will persist through the end of the work week. Low pressure anchored on that front is working across far southeast SD this morning. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms have been working toward the northwest across central SD near the vicinity of that trough early this morning with more widespread showers and storms building across NE into far southeast SD. Low pressure at the sfc and aloft will become a nearly stacked system over the next 24 hours across northern NE into southern SD.
A larger trough digging southeast from the Gulf of Alaska this weekend will bring a more noticeable cool-down and higher rain chances, especially for the coast and southwest Washington. Otherwise, expect cooler and drier weather through at least Thursday. Thursday continues the trend of modest cooling, with coastal highs in the low to mid 60s and inland highs in the mid to upper 70s.
615 AM EDT Wed Sep 17 2025 Low pressure will drift along the Mid-Atlantic coast today, then linger while weakening through mid-week. High pressure will otherwise extend across the eastern US. The low pressure over the Mid-Atlantic will weaken but linger today and tonight well to our NE. The flow around the low pressure will continue to bring considerable cloudiness and spotty light rain to areas along the NC/VA border to near the Triangle this morning. Dry and warmer. Low pressure to the NE of the region will dissipate leaving high pressure in control. Highs return to the lower 80s NE ranging into the upper 80s south.
614 AM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025 A closed upper low over the East Coast opens, leaving a weakening upper trough centered along the East Coast into the weekend.
A deep upper trough approaching slowly from the west will support off-and-on scattered to numerous showers/thunderstorms across the region today through Thursday night. TEMPERATURES: Seasonably warm temperatures look to persist today, with forecast highs in the low 80s to low 90s, warmest over far southeast Kansas. A strong upper trough approaching from the west will be the focus for off-and-on scattered to numerous showers/thunderstorms across the region the next 24 hours.
533 AM MDT Wed Sep 17 2025 - Showers and storms develop over the higher terrain along and north of I-70 during the afternoon today. Precipitation has ended across the region as the nearby low pressure system continues to move east of the Rockies, as shown by satellite imagery. Showers and thunderstorms are possible today, primarily north of I-70, where moisture lingers and a lobe of energy off of the low pressure system moves through.
118 PM EDT Wed Sep 17 2025 Warm and dry weather will develop into the weekend as high pressure builds in.
An upper level trough will track across the Plains tonight into Thursday. This will send a weak cold front into north Texas and eventually into northern portions of the Big Country late Thursday.
Locally over one half of an inch across portions of the Lower Susquehanna Valley. The generally thick cloud cover across the SE two thirds of the CWA, persistent easterly flow will keep temperatures significantly cooler than recent days. For tonight, the aforementioned coastal low will move off the NJ coast and the single, closed-contour upper level low will transition to a positive-tilt. open wave causing the low to mid level flow to back through the NE then North by morning.
Enough dry air remains in place such that overnight lows should again fall into the low to mid 60s across inland areas with upper 60s to near 70 at the coast.
(Rest of today through Thursday) An upper level low is sitting off to our east and that has brought northerly flow to Middle TN. Upper level ridge will work east for the end of the week keeping conditions quiet and dry.
With the lower heights overhead due to our troughing aloft from the northeast, daytime heating of our airmass should lead to isolated showers and thunderstorms again this afternoon. The center of the upper-level low pressure system over the Northern Rockies and the eastern CONUS will continue to weaken today. Afternoon highs will peak into the low to mid 90s areawide.
- Cloud cover has been slow to develop today allowing temps to hit the low 90s by noon. - High temperatures should hold steady in the low 90s through the forecast period.
154 PM EDT Wed Sep 17 2025 A low pressure system over the Tidewater of Virginia will shift north and weaken along the northeast coast by Thursday.
230 PM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025 - Low pressure will continue to circulate over the area bringing a prolonged period of wet conditions that will persist through the end of the work week. Temperatures are in the mid to upper 60s around and west of the Missouri River, and a little warmer to the east, in the upper 60s to low 70s. Tonight, the upper level portion of the low pressure system currently over our area will be over western SD while the lower portion will be over more central SD. This low will continue to circulate over the area through the end of the work week.
1136 AM MDT Wed Sep 17 2025 - Showers and storms develop over the higher terrain along and north of I-70 during the afternoon today. Precipitation has ended across the region as the nearby low pressure system continues to move east of the Rockies, as shown by satellite imagery. Showers and thunderstorms are possible today, primarily north of I-70, where moisture lingers and a lobe of energy off of the low pressure system moves through.
The smoke is entering the region from the northeast as it wraps around the upper high. Today's temperatures will be several degrees warmer than yesterday with valley highs into the mid-80s this afternoon.
- Turning cooler with better rain chances by the weekend. High pressure overhead continues to slide east this afternoon as a weakening ridge gives way to a cold front pressing into northern Michigan.
Upper level troughing moving to the east will allow temperatures in the west to start to warm into the mid to high 70s F while 60s F remain near the Dakotas border Thursday.
- Cooler Temperatures return to southwest Kansas late week. One weaker upper wave, indicated by the 700-400mb differential vorticity advection, was currently located over western Kansas, while our more significant upper level trough was still working its way across the Central Rockies. We will be monitoring the potential for some breaks of sun today which will contribute to improved instability near this boundary, especially with cooler 500mb temperatures spreading into southwest Kansas as an upper low begins to exit the Rockies and move out into the Plains. The primary area of concern for severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening will be near the Colorado border and over southeast Colorado given the moist upslope flow developing north of the surface boundary as the next significant upper level trough/low emerges from the Rockies.
Water vapor imagery this afternoon shows broad troughing that extends from interior PacNorthwest down to the 4-Corners region then up to the Great Lakes. Featured within this troughing pattern, h700 low pressure rotates near the SD/NE border.
202 PM EDT Wed Sep 17 2025 Dry and warm weather prevails into the weekend under high pressure. Another quiet day is underway this afternoon across our forecast area as we remain anchored beneath high pressure. Otherwise, high pressure should hold strong and mitigate precipitation from venturing west of the I-79 corridor. High pressure remains anchored overhead through the course of the forecast period, yielding dry weather and slightly above normal temperatures.
(This evening through Thursday night) An upper level ridge centered along to just east of the Appalachian Mountains is lifting northeastward. In doing so, that will allow at least some weak ridging to build along the northern Gulf Coast.
(This afternoon through Thursday) Subtle disturbances will continue through the area, rotating around an upper low over the Chesapeake Bay region.
A weakening upper low currently centered over the Chesapeake Bay region will become absorbed into the mid-latitude westerlies over the next 24 hours through Thursday afternoon. Meanwhile, weak upper ridging gradually moves overhead from the west through the remainder of the short-term period through Thursday night. Lows will remain generally the same or trend slightly warmer Thursday night compared to tonight, with lows both nights in the mid 50s to lower 60s.
Weak ridging will also move in place at the mid-levels. Daytime temperatures are forecast to warm a few degrees tomorrow with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s (5-10 degrees cooler in the mountains).
1235 PM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025 A closed upper low over the East Coast opens, leaving a weakening upper trough centered along the East Coast into the weekend.
A weakening upper low currently centered over the Chesapeake Bay region will become absorbed into the mid-latitude westerlies over the next 24 hours through Thursday afternoon. Meanwhile, weak upper ridging gradually moves overhead from the west through the remainder of the short-term period through Thursday night. Lows will remain generally the same or trend slightly warmer Thursday night compared to tonight, with lows both nights in the mid 50s to lower 60s. Ridging aloft continues to build eastward through the end of the work week, keeping conditions relatively benign.
The second round of storms will be in association with upslope flow and resultant convection developing across the high plains of Colorado.
Key message(s): - An isolated shower or sprinkle possible An upper low will gradually lift away from the region today. Skies become mostly clear overnight allowing for reasonable radiational cooling and overnight lows to drop into the low 60s. Persistent, weak troughing is expected to remain in place despite height rises across the area. The height rises will likely result in some slightly warmer temps across the area, but these should only be a few degrees above normal. A dry airmass in place will continue to foster large diurnal range in temps with lows in the low 60s.
That all being said, plenty of moisture resides in the atmosphere thanks to the remnants of post-tropical cyclone Mario to support isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms today and tomorrow mainly west and south of Tucson. 7" across southeast Arizona with the highest values across western Pima County. /issued 146 AM MST Wed Sep 17 2025/ Clouds cover most of southeast Arizona with a few isolated showers around the higher terrain and the AZ/NM border. Plenty of moisture in place thanks to southerly/southwesterly mid-level flow that has advected moisture from the remnants of Mario, which has been downgraded to a post- tropical cyclone.
236 PM EDT Wed Sep 17 2025 Outside of low chances for an isolated rain shower in the Mid- Hudson Valley, Litchfield Hills, Berkshires, and southern Greens, a mostly dry day is in store today across eastern New York and western New England as a low pressure system off the coast continues to move northeast into tonight. High pressure builds back in tomorrow. As a low pressure system continues to move along the East Coast today, isolated rain showers continue to move north and east across western New England, the Mid-Hudson Valley, southern Taconics, and southeastern Catskills this afternoon and evening.
Onshore flow and slightly elevated seas will maintain a moderate risk of rip currents along the beaches of the lower Texas coast through Thursday. Rain and thunderstorm chances through the week will continue on the waters off the lower Texas coast.
At the surface, a subtle area of low pressure will retrograde slowly westward across southern AR, with an ill-defined trough axis (extending northeastward from the low into TN) predicted to lift northwestward into the Mid-MS Valley by 12Z Thursday. Aside from a few showers already in progress across northeast AL, current expectations are that a minor increase the coverage of convective cells will evolve by early this afternoon, with showers and thunderstorms initially developing in the vicinity of the low- level wind confluence axis to our north and before spreading southward with time throughout the afternoon.
Sheppard Issued 423 AM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025 Today through Thursday: Another day of quiet and dry conditions beneath high pressure today with highs in the low to upper 80s. The high may also break down just enough to add a stray shower/storm west of Madison during the afternoon.
Outside of this, mostly to partly clear skies overnight allow for modest radiational cooling and lows early Thursday morning in the lower 60s. Persistent, weak troughing is expected to remain in place despite height rises across the area. The height rises will likely result in some slightly warmer temps across the area, but these should only be a few degrees above normal. A dry airmass in place will continue to foster large diurnal range in temps with lows in the low 60s.
733 PM EDT Wed Sep 17 2025 Warm and dry weather will develop into the weekend as high pressure builds in.
341 PM MDT Wed Sep 17 2025 KEY MESSAGES: - The complex Low pressure circulation will sweep through southern and eastern portions of our region through Thursday with off- and-on chances for rain along the MT/ND boarder. WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: The low pressure complex is starting to finally morph into one single circulation, the center of which is now moving northward through South Dakota.
These will continue to diminish towards midnight, as the upper low slowly drifts away. Isolated rain showers will impact the the Mid Hudson Valley, Litchfield Hills, Berkshires, and southern Greens early tonight across eastern New York and western New England as a low pressure system off the coast continues to move northeast into tomorrow. High pressure builds back in tomorrow. As a low pressure system continues to move along the East Coast today, isolated rain showers continue to move north and east across western New England, the Mid-Hudson Valley, southern Taconics, and southeastern Catskills this afternoon and evening.
619 PM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025 - Cloud cover has been slow to develop today allowing temps to hit the low 90s by noon. - High temperatures should hold steady in the low 90s through the forecast period.
Warm temperatures and clear skies will continue this evening under a highly amplified ridge.
806 PM EDT Wed Sep 17 2025 High pressure will maintain dry weather through Thursday. A weak cold front will drop south across the area Thursday night bringing the chance for a few widely scattered showers, however more notable will be the cooler air mass that pushes into the area behind the cold front as another large area of Canadian high pressure builds southeast across the region with dry weather expected through the bulk of the weekend. Cirrus over the region will continue to thin as the low near the Mid Atlantic exits off to the northeast tonight. A weak moisture-starved cold front will approach from the north Thursday, a few showers will be possible across the North Country late. Thursday night a cold front will continue to drop southeastward across our region.
624 PM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025 - Low pressure will continue to circulate over the area bringing a prolonged period of wet conditions that will persist through the end of the work week. Temperatures are in the mid to upper 60s around and west of the Missouri River, and a little warmer to the east, in the upper 60s to low 70s. Tonight, the upper level portion of the low pressure system currently over our area will be over western SD while the lower portion will be over more central SD. This low will continue to circulate over the area through the end of the work week.
647 PM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025 (This afternoon through Thursday) Subtle disturbances will continue through the area, rotating around an upper low over the Chesapeake Bay region.
902 PM EDT Wed Sep 17 2025 A low pressure system over the Tidewater of Virginia will shift north and weaken along the northeast coast by Thursday.
630 PM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025 (This evening through Thursday night) An upper level ridge centered along to just east of the Appalachian Mountains is lifting northeastward. In doing so, that will allow at least some weak ridging to build along the northern Gulf Coast.
901 PM EDT Wed Sep 17 2025 A low pressure system over the Tidewater of Virginia will shift north and weaken along the northeast coast by Thursday.
Expect a continuation of the isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms over the next few days with highs generally in the low to mid 90s.
107 AM EDT Thu Sep 18 2025 High pressure will extend over the area into the weekend with a warming trend. Dry and warmer weather today. As low pressure continues to pull away to the NE, high pressure will take over. Lows in the lower to mid 60s.
Weak high pressure over the Ohio Valley will otherwise help control the area's sensible weather.
High temperatures look to remain in the 90s through the period, with overnight lows largely remaining in the low to mid 70s, though western portions of the CWA may dip into the upper 60s tonight and Thursday night.
08Z sfc analysis shows high pressure over eastern Kentucky keeping winds light and skies mostly clear. These conditions have led to a good night of radiational cooling resulting in a moderate ridge to valley temperature split along with valley fog - locally dense but less extensive than last night. Temperatures currently vary from the mid 50s in the sheltered valley locations to the lower 60s on the hills.
1252 AM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025 A closed upper low over the East Coast opens, leaving a weakening upper trough centered along the East Coast into the weekend. The forecast area will see an increasing chance of showers and thunderstorms in the coming week with the increase in moisture and the approaching upper trough.
- A weak lift zone associated with exiting low pressure will generate isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms throughout the day today.
1135 PM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025 - Low pressure will continue to circulate over the area bringing a prolonged period of wet conditions that will persist through the end of the work week. Temperatures are in the mid to upper 60s around and west of the Missouri River, and a little warmer to the east, in the upper 60s to low 70s. Tonight, the upper level portion of the low pressure system currently over our area will be over western SD while the lower portion will be over more central SD. This low will continue to circulate over the area through the end of the work week.
141 AM EDT Thu Sep 18 2025 High pressure will extend over the area into the weekend with a warming trend. Dry and warmer weather today. As low pressure continues to pull away to the NE, high pressure will take over. Lows in the lower to mid 60s.
227 AM EDT Thu Sep 18 2025 Low pressure dissipates offshore of the Mid-Atlantic today as high pressure builds in through the rest of the week.
- Slightly cooler temperatures in the 70s to low 80s are expected Thursday due to cloud cover and a cold frontal passage.
Water vapor imagery highlights several small scale disturbances within the trough across the northern Plains and a dry slot attempting to reach southwestern MN.
A stalled boundary in the vicinity of the Keys, combined with Atlantic high pressure to the north will maintain a moist flow.
A closed upper low over the East Coast opens, leaving a weakening upper trough centered along the East Coast into the weekend. The forecast area will see an increasing chance of showers and thunderstorms in the coming week with the increase in moisture and the approaching upper trough.
Muscha - Slightly cooler temperatures in the 70s to low 80s are expected Thursday due to cloud cover and a cold frontal passage.
High pressure remains in control across the region today which will keep skies mainly clear, with light winds and no precipitation chances. H5 heights will be on the rise the next few days as the ridge strengthens and as such, temps will climb accordingly.
(Today and tonight) Mid-level troughing will continue for the near term period.
Winds will remain light under the influence of high pressure, however a backdoor cold front will move into the region this afternoon bringing with in more moisture. With the low level saturation advecting into the area fog will be possible and could be dense. Any fog will then burn off a few hours after sunrise with cooler temperatures in the low 70s to mid 80s from Clare to South Haven. - Weekend Chances for Rain and Storms This weekend upper level troughing moves into the area along with warm air advection the low level jet, and positive vorticity advection.