Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Low temperatures early Memorial Day morning will range in the low to mid 50s, a few degrees below seasonal averages.
1222 PM CDT Sun May 25 2025 (Today through Monday) An upper-level ridge over the Southern Plains looks to shift further east today as an upper-level trough traverses the Intermountain West. The trough looks to continue into the Central Plains through the end of the period. Ahead of the trough, low-level pressure gradients are expected to tighten, supporting the development of a 30-40 kt 850mb LLJ along the Texas Coast.
1131 AM MDT Sun May 25 2025 -Cloudy and cool through Memorial Day with chances for showers in areas -Semi-unsettled weather continues the rest of the week with daily chances for showers and a few storms -Warming for the second half of the week Mean troughing can be expected locally through much of the period as a weak Rex blocking pattern persists. Stalled frontal boundary coupled with a slow moving upper trough will support chances showers the next couple days as impulses advect through the flow. Things gradually begin to warm up mid week on as the western CONUS ridge shifts east, although the pattern remains unsettled with near daily chances for showers and a few storms continuing, with activity being more scattered to isolated as the week progresses.
Expect a cold front to sweep through mid-week. Tonight: Poorly organized convective cluster pushes off the Lowcountry coast later this evening, with mainly dry conditions expected thereafter.
- Cooler temperatures are possible behind a front early this week.
1201 PM CDT Sun May 25 2025 - Mostly dry and warmer today with a mix of sun and clouds.
1225 PM CDT Sun May 25 2025 - Warmer and mild weather today.
A quick glance at satellite early this afternoon already show a broad region of thunderstorm/shower development taking place along the exit region of a southwestern centered trough.
Water vapour matinee had mean trough from south-central Canada to the four corners region. Main short term concern in the short term is the upper trough. Through Memorial Day, upper trough inches eastward as it consolidates over the upper Midwest as a broad upper-low.
An upper trough will continue to move across the Northern Rockies into the Four Corners region before the trough axis moves over the High Plains late Monday.
This will carve out some very subtle upper level troughing. Moisture remains fairly static heading into mid week but upper level ridging strengthens. Also, expect summertime temperatures to continue with highs in the upper 80s and overnight lows in the lower 80s. A large upper level trough is expected to dig its way southward along the Eastern Seaboard which will erode the upper level ridging across Florida and the Keys. This will lead to an increase in cloud cover, increase in moisture, and slightly cooler temperatures. From synopsis, high pressure remains entrenched over the western North Atlantic for the next several days, meandering and fluctuating in strength slightly day to day.
Temperatures aloft are forecast to continue warming up and ridging will begin to build aloft, thus reducing the likelihood for severe impacts. High temperatures this afternoon and on Monday will range from the upper 80s to low 90s across the area, with heat indices in the lower 100s.
(Tonight through Monday night) Key Messages: - Moderate to Extreme Risk of Heat-Related Impacts (level 2-4 out of 4) today and Monday As the ridge axis shifts further east over the short term period, not much change is expected through the beginning of this week apart from increasing moisture as PWAT's climb above the 75th percentile.
Weak high pressure at the surface and ridging aloft makes for above average temperatures. Though the mid level temperatures today are a bit warmer compared to yesterday so that should decrease the likelihood of any large hail.
153 PM EDT Sun May 25 2025 Scattered showers will end tonight and then Memorial Day will see a much welcomed pattern change as high pressure moves in, bringing dry conditions and pushing afternoon temperatures back towards normal for this time of year. Memorial Day will be the salvage day of the week as high pressure takes full control allowing for the low clouds to burn off in the morning along with temperatures getting closer to normal in the mid-upper 60s and maybe a touch of 70 in NEPA and Southern Tier valleys.
1233 PM CDT Sun May 25 2025 (Today through Monday) - Moderate to Extreme Risk of Heat-Related Impacts (level 2-4 out of 4) today and Monday Hot and mostly dry conditions will continue through Memorial Day as high pressure remains in place.
Morning upper air & sfc analysis & mesoanalysis indicates the region on the northern periphery of ridging over the Gulf of Mexico with stalled sfc boundary situated across north-central portions of the area. The only caveat is low-level bulk shear vectors are southwesterly, which could decrease balance of cold pools & southward extent of the highest severe threat. In addition, there are enough trends in HREF probs of convective wind gusts & severe probabilities in HREF/CSU machine learning guidance to support locally adding in the Interstate 20 corridor into this, while the Highway 84 corridor was added into a Marginal risk.
Upper Level low just to out southeast moved a weak wave through the region this morning. At the surface, weak trough is noted stretching into eastern Upper Michigan. As the afternoon progresses, these sprinkles or areas of light rain may become more widespread across the interior west half and near Lake Michigan while we warm from the current mid to upper 50s into the low to mid 60s.
- Much cooler for Memorial Day behind a cold front, but some showers and thunderstorms possible.
149 PM EDT Sun May 25 2025 A low pressure system is currently located in New Brunswick and is expected to gradually weaken and move east across the Maritimes today. Low pressure exits the Maritimes Monday.
Probabilities of temperatures of 37 degrees or colder with the HREF is much lower at 0 to 20 percent for Monday morning vs the 60 to 80 percent across the north from this morning where temperatures did drop into the low to mid 30s. Winds will be lighter as well with high pressure over the area.
343 PM EDT Sun May 25 2025 Scattered showers will end tonight and then Memorial Day will see a much welcomed pattern change as high pressure moves in, bringing dry conditions and pushing afternoon temperatures back towards normal for this time of year.
240 PM MDT Sun May 25 2025 - A few strong thunderstorms this afternoon/evening over greater Denver and the Palmer Ridge, with some large hail the main threat.
Today will be warmer and drier as an upper ridge moves directly overhead. An upper level trough approaches the coast this evening, just close enough for a 20% chance of thunder in central-eastern Oregon. Idaho will be too warm and dry aloft for precip today, but Monday as the trough moves into our area and a cold front passes in the afternoon there will be a slight chance of thunderstorms across higher terrain in Idaho.
1238 PM EDT Sun May 25 2025 High pressure building over the Great Lakes and into the Northeast will bring dry weather for Memorial Day.
This ridge will keep much of the area quiet this afternoon/evening, but isolated shower/thunderstorms are developing along the ID/WY border that will need to be monitored. Tomorrow, the ridge axis will shift east quickly as a new minor disturbance digs into the northern Rockies. This trough will activate more robust shower and thunderstorm activity, both in strength and coverage. The area with the best potential for stronger thunderstorms appears to be over the high country of the central ID mountains extending into the Beaverheads of MT. This is due to closer proximity to the trough axis with a slight boost of divergence in the entrance region of the passing jet streak.
Afternoon mid-level water vapor imagery reveals a trough offshore shore with a defined front on the eastward leading edge. Surface dewpoints are in the low to upper 40s this afternoon. Breezy northerly winds will then develop Monday afternoon over much of the region, with a moderate to high chance for some gusts over 25 mph over the coastal headlands and ridges.
A weak ridge tries to build in behind the departing trough, bringing warmer weather and continued dry conditions through much of the week.
From synopsis, high pressure remains entrenched over the western North Atlantic for the next several days, meandering and fluctuating in strength slightly day to day.
(Tonight through Monday night) The upper-level ridge that has persisted over Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley will be moving further to the east as an upper- level trough moves westward into the Central Plains close to the end of the short term forecast period. As for the temperatures, the high temperatures for tomorrow are expected to mostly in the 90s for the region. Areas right along the coast could also be in the lower 90s as well. The low temperatures for tonight and tomorrow night are expected to be mostly in the 70s, with the extreme southern parts of the CWA in the lower 80s.
244 PM CDT Sun May 25 2025 - Excessive rainfall expected tonight across south-central to southeast Kansas - On and off showers and storms remain possible through the late work week - Drier and warmer conditions expected going into the weekend Currently, there is a trough moving into the Desert Southwest with a weak ridge traversing towards the Midwest, resulting in southwesterly flow aloft in our area. 5" with the highest totals generally in southern to southeast Kansas. This keeps the axis of low-level convergence from the surface warm front in Kansas, and supplies lift for more showers and storms Monday afternoon to Monday night.
Issued by National Weather Service Billings MT 136 PM MDT Sun May 25 2025 KEY MESSAGES: - Generally dry and warmer conditions through Memorial Day, and this week. - Temperatures will continue trending warmer this week. WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Elongated upper trough continues to weaken across the region with a narrow upper ridge pushing east from the northern Rockies. High pressure over the Dakotas and pressure falls along the front range through Memorial Day will bring increasing southeast winds across Fort Peck Lake.
527 PM MDT Sun May 25 2025 - Isolated showers and thunderstorms will continue through this evening, with warmer and drier conditions south of the Colorado River. - A trough passing tomorrow morning will support more widespread convection on the mountains. - High pressure will raise temperatures to above normal this week. Precipitation is possible again tomorrow, especially as a trough passing tomorrow morning brings support ahead of the afternoon heating.
813 PM MDT Sun May 25 2025 - A little warmer for Memorial Day tomorrow, with only isolated (15% to 30%) thunderstorms, mainly over the mountains and into central basins.
717 PM EDT Sun May 25 2025 Scattered showers will end tonight and then Memorial Day will see a much welcomed pattern change as high pressure moves in, bringing dry conditions and pushing afternoon temperatures back towards normal for this time of year.
This trough will be another weak system, but a bit stronger than the past several impulses that have impacted the area over the past week or two. As the upper level trough moves closer this afternoon and the air mass cools aloft, some instability is expected to develop, especially along and east of the Cascades. This lines up with the highest CAPE and shear values. Lingering showers from today could go into Monday morning before tapering off as the trough weakens and lifts to the northeast. Ridging then builds into the area for the remainder of the week, although a few weak impulses are expected to periodically pass over or just to the north of the area.
553 PM EDT Sun May 25 2025 High pressure building over the Great Lakes and into the Northeast will bring dry weather for Memorial Day.
425 PM MDT Sun May 25 2025 - Isolated showers and thunderstorms will continue through this evening, with warmer and drier conditions south of the Colorado River. - A trough passing tomorrow morning will support more widespread convection on the mountains. - High pressure will raise temperatures to above normal this week. Precipitation is possible again tomorrow, especially as a trough passing tomorrow morning brings support ahead of the afternoon heating.
920 PM EDT Sun May 25 2025 High pressure over the area through Monday. A series of areas of low pressure move through mid week through the weekend. Dry and clear under high pressure tonight. Low temperatures will dip into the low to mid 40s with patchy fog possible across eastern zones early Monday morning. Upper level low moving into southern Ontario this afternoon while convection moving into the mid Mississippi Valley is slinging cirrus into the southern zones. At the surface, high pressure continues to build into the southern Great Lakes, and as mentioned before, the pattern continues to limit warming of the temperatures towards normal values with upper 50s to mid 60s area wide. Upper trough and trailing axis will finally make an exit Monday, replaced by weak ridging aloft late Monday into Monday night.
618 PM CDT Sun May 25 2025 (Tonight through Monday night) The upper-level ridge that has persisted over Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley will be moving further to the east as an upper- level trough moves westward into the Central Plains close to the end of the short term forecast period. As for the temperatures, the high temperatures for tomorrow are expected to mostly in the 90s for the region. Areas right along the coast could also be in the lower 90s as well. The low temperatures for tonight and tomorrow night are expected to be mostly in the 70s, with the extreme southern parts of the CWA in the lower 80s.
742 PM EDT Sun May 25 2025 A few lingering showers this evening before high pressure brings drier weather to the region overnight.
- Excessive rainfall expected tonight across south-central to southeast Kansas - On and off showers and storms remain possible through the late work week - Drier and warmer conditions expected going into the weekend Currently, there is a trough moving into the Desert Southwest with a weak ridge traversing towards the Midwest, resulting in southwesterly flow aloft in our area. 5" with the highest totals generally in southern to southeast Kansas. This keeps the axis of low-level convergence from the surface warm front in Kansas, and supplies lift for more showers and storms Monday afternoon to Monday night.
From synopsis, high pressure will remain entrenched over the western North Atlantic for the next several days, meandering and fluctuating in strength slightly day to day.
636 PM CDT Sun May 25 2025 (Tonight through Monday night) Key Messages: - Moderate to Extreme Risk of Heat-Related Impacts (level 2-4 out of 4) today and Monday As the ridge axis shifts further east over the short term period, not much change is expected through the beginning of this week apart from increasing moisture as PWAT's climb above the 75th percentile.
608 PM CDT Sun May 25 2025 (This evening through Monday night) Upper ridge extended from the western Gulf and east Texas northward into Nebraska early this afternoon. Troughing extended from Montana to near Las Vegas. Away from the isolated to scattered convection, temperatures were generally around 90 degrees, with dew points in the lower and middle 70s.
530 PM MDT Sun May 25 2025 - A few strong thunderstorms this afternoon/evening over greater Denver and the Palmer Ridge, with some large hail the main threat.
- A little warmer for Memorial Day tomorrow, with only isolated (15% to 30%) thunderstorms, mainly over the mountains and nearby lower elevations.
This is thanks to the upper low that is currently centered over Utah bringing dry southwest flow to the area.
720 PM EDT Sun May 25 2025 High pressure over the area through Monday. A series of areas of low pressure move through mid week through the weekend. Upper level low moving into southern Ontario this afternoon while convection moving into the mid Mississippi Valley is slinging cirrus into the southern zones. At the surface, high pressure continues to build into the southern Great Lakes, and as mentioned before, the pattern continues to limit warming of the temperatures towards normal values with upper 50s to mid 60s area wide. Upper trough and trailing axis will finally make an exit Monday, replaced by weak ridging aloft late Monday into Monday night.
This front crosses the region tonight through early Monday, bringing cooler temperatures and a round of showers.
310 AM CDT Mon May 26 2025 - Near to slightly below normal temperatures through the middle of the week, with a gradual warming trend toward the lower 80s after.
An omega block type pattern remains in place over the northern Rockies with a open trough lingering over our CWA.
The highest potential for widespread precipitation is Monday night and early Tuesday.
345 AM EDT Mon May 26 2025 High pressure builds across the area through Tuesday.
The rest of the night will be rather quiet as weak ridging occurs ahead of the next system that is currently over north central Texas.
For the rest of today, a weak trough over the Rockies will shift east over the Plains.
Temperatures will remain above normal through Tuesday, with a trend towards even warmer conditions midweek onward. An upper level trough will approach the area today which will bring breezy southwest winds this afternoon. The overall synoptic pattern is unremarkable as the trough and associated pressure gradient weakens as it moves into California. The trough will lack moisture and strong forcing, so precipitation is not expected with this system. On Tuesday, the trough will shift east and ridging will start to build into the region. This will result in continued dry conditions and clearing skies after clouds increase today and tonight with the trough axis. Temperatures today will be comparable to yesterday, then will warmer on Tuesday with height rises overhead. High temperatures on Tuesday will be 2-4 degrees warmer than today.
Discussion: In the upper levels, flow is more zonal today with a weak ridge building into the Midwest and Southeast. By Monday, a ridge builds into the Ohio River Valley and the Southeast. Tuesday and Tuesday night a closed low will be over the Upper Midwest bringing a trough down into the Tennessee Valley. At the surface, high pressure over Canada is extending down into the Ohio Valley.
Overnight lows will be in the upper 60s over inland areas with areas near the coast seeing temperatures in the low 70s. An mid level ridge over the area will bring warmer mid level temperatures with little shear aloft, so the main storm hazards will be locally heavy rainfall and wet downbursts where boundary mergers occur, especially for locations east of the Highway 301 corridor. By Tuesday, a similar convective pattern is expected with sea breezes storms increasing in coverage and intensity into the afternoon but expect more coverage of convection across SE GA near the front and across NE FL as the mid level ridge breaks down and developing SW flow increases mid level short wave trough energy aloft.
High temps in the lower 60s to mid 70s (coolest along MT/DK border). - Better chance of showers in mountains and western foothills Tuesday (30-70%) - Drier and warmer after midweek.
Temperatures will remain above normal through Tuesday, with a trend towards even warmer conditions midweek onward. Surface obs showed southwesterly winds gusting up to 30 mph and temperatures similar to slightly warmer than 24 hours ago. The mean ridge position was entering the western CWA this afternoon and will traverse the region through early morning on Memorial Day, bringing generally quiet weather. The next trough was crossing 130W this afternoon and will reach the West Coast on Memorial Day. This trough is moisture starved, so rain is not a concern. As the trough axis moves over our area on Tuesday, winds will decrease. Meanwhile, high pressure will quickly build to the north, setting up a slow-moving blocking pattern.
- Unsettled pattern in the early to middle parts of this coming week, with chances of strong to severe thunderstorms along with cooler temperatures.
- The highest chances (40-60%) for rain during the forecast period will be Monday night through Tuesday night. Memorial Day continues to look dry, though isentropic upglide well in advance of an upper level low approaching from the west will result in increasing cloud cover during the latter part of the day. Where, when, and how strong that forcing for ascent is with the incoming upper level low remains unclear due to an unusual amount of spread not only between the deterministic models but also their respective ensembles, and that will dictate our perceivable weather Tuesday and beyond.
An upper trough will continue to move across the Northern Rockies into the Four Corners region before the trough axis moves over the High Plains late Monday. The upper trough seems to linger over the Great Plains as we enter the middle of the week while another upper low develops over the Great basin. Current thinking is the worst of the visibilities will be along and west of the Highway 25 corridor. Temperatures will be on the cooler side the next few days with overnight lows in the 40s each day. The upper pattern becomes more zonal to northwesterly as a ridge begins to build over the Western CONUS.
Over the course of the week, the large-scale evolution of this synoptic pattern has been consistently modeled, with the expectation that a cut-off upper low will develop over MN, meander for a few days, and then eventually be swept east during the latter half of the week as amplified troughing develops over the eastern US and ridging builds over the western/west-central US.
1247 AM EDT Mon May 26 2025 High pressure over the area through Monday. A series of areas of low pressure move through mid week through the weekend. Dry and clear under high pressure tonight. Low temperatures will dip into the low to mid 40s with patchy fog possible across eastern zones early Monday morning. Upper level low moving into southern Ontario this afternoon while convection moving into the mid Mississippi Valley is slinging cirrus into the southern zones. At the surface, high pressure continues to build into the southern Great Lakes, and as mentioned before, the pattern continues to limit warming of the temperatures towards normal values with upper 50s to mid 60s area wide. Upper trough and trailing axis will finally make an exit Monday, replaced by weak ridging aloft late Monday into Monday night.
Rain probabilities diminish later in the morning outside the higher terrain. High pressure builds Tuesday and offshore flow will likely clear skies across NW California, at least outside the coast.
- Intermittent light showers, clouds, and slightly cooler temperatures continue through midweek.
Low-to-mid level flow still remains weak and this will continue through tomorrow as broad mid-level ridging develops over the region, thus limiting rain shower and thunderstorm development to effects of daytime heating and the sea breezes the next two days. With the broad ridge building and mid-level temperatures increasing by a couple degrees (500mb temps around -7C), there is not expected to be a severe weather threat for the next couple of days. High temperatures will mostly be in the low 90s across South Florida today and again Tuesday with lows Monday night ranging from the low 70s near the lake, interior, and Gulf coast regions to the upper 70s for the east coast metro.
A low pressure system will bring a return of rain to the region for Tuesday. Cloud cover will continue to increase tonight as a low pressure system approaches the region. Temperatures will be a little cooler during the day on Tuesday with more cloud cover and with rain chances.
318 AM EDT Mon May 26 2025 * A low pressure system will move through the lower Ohio Valley bringing showers and a few storms Tuesday.
115 AM EDT Mon May 26 2025 Our trend toward drier and warmer weather begins in earnest on Memorial Day.