Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1234 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024 (Today through Tuesday) Generally speaking, upper level troughing is in place over the southeastern US. It's a split between decaying remnants of Francine over MS and Potential Tropical Cyclone 8 just off the SC coast. Although the CWA isn't outlooked by SPC for any severe wx, model soundings indicate modest instability and cooler mid/upper level temps than yesterday.
1101 AM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024 Low pressure northeast of the area designated as Potential Tropical Cyclone 8 will move west-northwest, and is forecast to make landfall along the South Carolina coast later today into this evening. Lingering dry air aloft and cooler temps at 500mb (around -7 to -8C at 500MB) combined with a passing mid level disturbance may lead to isolated stronger storms capable of producing frequent lightning strikes, wind gusts of 40-50 mph and locally heavy rainfall.
1208 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024 (Today and tonight) Another warm day in store will upper ridging aloft.
231 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024 - Staying warm throughout the week, eventually turning cooler by the end of the weekend.
127 PM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024 High pressure centered northeast of the area will weaken. Low pressure will move northwest from the Atlantic coast into the central Appalachians before weakening by mid week.
18z surface analysis indicates two pressure troughs across the region, with the main density gradient along outflow from this mornings thunderstorms. Guidance continues to be very strong in its assertion that this outflow will begin to act as a warm front and surge northward through the day today. Synoptic forcing will be more than enough in northeast North Dakota given a solid CVA plume pushing into eastern ND and ageostrophic divergence at the apex of the ridge. The downside is that curvature within the lowest 3kms appears sufficient for potential surface-based supercells. Within the lowest 1km, there is solid streamwise vorticity to facilitate a tornado threat this afternoon if supercells can remain discrete.
GOES Satellite imagery this afternoon shows a closed low spinning over the Great Basin, with southerly flow sending mid and upper level moisture northward, as evident by widespread cloud cover.
1215 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024 (Rest of today through Tuesday) Weak ridging builds aloft causing a drier airmass to move in over Middle Tn. Much of the same on Tuesday for our western half of the CWA, but for our eastern half, increasing clouds and cooler temperatures are expected. With the dry northerly flow, RHs will be on the lower side making those high temps not feel so bad. Along with cooler temperatures on Tuesday, there will be some increased moisture associated with potential Tropical Cyclone Eight over the Carolinas.
A trough of low pressure will influence the region today through Tuesday with below normal temperatures and the threat of precipitation.
939 AM PDT Mon Sep 16 2024 Cooler and windier today with isolated light showers this morning.
Guidance is a few degrees cooler Tuesday for highs but still think it will reach into the mid and upper 80s. Tonight will likely be a little cooler than last night with lows ranging from the mid 40s to the mid 50s. Daily high temperatures through the work week largely in the low-mid 80s -- cooler near the lakeshores. Stagnant weather pattern continuing over the next couple of days (and beyond) with high pressure leading to mostly clear skies and light winds.
200 PM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024 High pressure anchored off the coast of New England will extend back across the Lower Great Lakes through Tuesday night.
231 PM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024 High pressure anchored off the coast of New England will extend back across the Lower Great Lakes through Tuesday night.
(Tonight through Tuesday night) An omega block pattern will remain in place from the short term period and beyond with the mid-level ridging portion of this block pattern remaining settled atop the state of Texas.
(Rest of today through Tuesday) Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight moves into the Carolinas as a mid- level trough sits over the southeastern United States. High pressure over the northeastern United States will block a path north for the remnants of Eight as it becomes absorbed into a developing mid-level low and an associated frontal boundary currently north of our area advances across the peninsula of Florida tonight into Tuesday.
212 PM MDT Mon Sep 16 2024 Afternoon satellite imagery shows a potent upper low moving across northern Nevada this afternoon. Precip will trend more towards widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms overnight and into the day tomorrow as the low settles over the region. Temps will be noticeably cooler tomorrow with valley locations struggling to get above 60 with most areas expected only to top out in the 50s tomorrow.
954 AM MDT Mon Sep 16 2024 - Very warm through Tuesday with elevated fire weather conditions - Strong storm system late Tuesday/Tuesday evening brings marginal/slight risk of severe weather - Pattern change end of the week with cooler weather likely 08z surface analysis had low over southeast MT with meso-low over K2WX per KUDX radar loop. Bigger picture has upper low over northern CA, which is the main concern for the short term. Tuesday, upper low ejects into eastern MT with pronounced synoptic forcing ahead of it per negative tilt. Buoyancy not that impressive ahead of cold front, but synoptic forcing should support high-based thunderstorms racing across WY into western SD.
KEY MESSAGES: - Increasing cloud cover and low probability showers expected with coastal low approach ------------------------------------------------------------------- Afternoon conditions will remain relatively unchanged as a dry airmass remains in place and high pressure sits over New England. Upslope flow and increasing moisture will increase mostly light rain shower chances for the higher terrain of WV after midnight. Otherwise, the greater cloud coverage should limit nocturnal cooling and maintain KEY MESSAGES: - Periodic rain chances midweek as coastal low meanders around the Mid-Atlantic - Probabilities remain low in seeing 1" or greater of rainfall ------------------------------------------------------------------- There remains fairly high consensus for the coastal low to meander around the Carolinas to Mid-Atlantic vicinity midweek as its parent trough remains detached from the broader northern jet streams.
1255 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024 (Today through Tuesday) As ridging aloft gradually builds over the area, most of the region will remain dry and warm today and Tuesday. The aforementioned ridging aloft will work against any more coverage than that. Given the low confidence and coverage we will only indicate a silent 10 pop.
Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight, located off the Carolina coast, is moving inland today and will merge with a longwave trough located over the southeast United States. The forecast challenge relates to where the trough axis moves and how close the jet develops to the Keys. If the trough stays further east, the Keys will be on the dry side of the longwave trough. If the trough moves further west, then a weak right entrance region will be located close to the Keys and enhance showers and thunderstorms.
(Rest of today through Tuesday) Weak ridging builds aloft causing a drier airmass to move in over Middle Tn. Much of the same on Tuesday for our western half of the CWA, but for our eastern half, increasing clouds and cooler temperatures are expected. With the dry northerly flow, RHs will be on the lower side making those high temps not feel so bad. Along with cooler temperatures on Tuesday, there will be some increased moisture associated with potential Tropical Cyclone Eight over the Carolinas.
1245 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024 (Today through Tuesday Night) A non-tropical low off the Southeastern coastline is progged to pull in the discarded remnants of Francine currently over the Lower Mississippi Valley. This should allow the upper ridge over Texas shift eastward. In spite of the ridge's greater influence, northerly low-level flow and cooler 850mb temperatures should bring slighter cooler highs.
Even farther north, Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight (PTC 8) is centered over the Carolina coast. The main story for the night will be deep tropical moisture being pulled across our area as PTC 8 starts to merge with an upper trough.
508 PM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024 Heavy rainfall and gusty winds will remain a threat into tonight, especially across Southeast as the low continues inland, with improving conditions into early Tuesday due to drier air building in. A weak cold front will bring more seasonable temperatures beginning towards the end of the work week. Low pressure will move inland tonight and showers and a few storms will gradually diminish from east to west overnight. The remaining trough axis will pass back overhead Wed with enough lingering moisture to keep rain/thunder chances in the forecast through the end of the period. Lows in the mid to upper 60s with highs in the low to mid 80s. Mix of MVFR and IFR across the region this afternoon will persist into the evening as Potential Tropical Cyclone 8 lingers in the region.
843 PM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024 Heavy rainfall and gusty winds will remain a threat into tonight, especially across Southeast as the low continues inland, with improving conditions into early Tuesday due to drier air building in. A weak cold front will bring more seasonable temperatures beginning towards the end of the work week. Low pressure will move inland tonight and showers and a few storms will gradually diminish from east to west overnight. The remaining trough axis will pass back overhead Wed with enough lingering moisture to keep rain/thunder chances in the forecast through the end of the period. Lows in the mid to upper 60s with highs in the low to mid 80s.
856 PM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024 Low pressure moving onshore will spread rain along with breezy conditions across mainly the central and north Midlands through tonight.
Guidance is a few degrees cooler Tuesday for highs but still think it will reach into the mid and upper 80s. Tonight will likely be a little cooler than last night with lows ranging from the mid 40s to the mid 50s. Daily high temperatures through the work week largely in the low-mid 80s -- cooler near the lakeshores. High pressure will remain in control of the weather across the northern Great Lakes the next several days.
1012 PM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024 High pressure anchored off the coast of New England will extend back across the Lower Great Lakes through Tuesday night, and this will maintain dry and warm weather throughout our region. The only difference from the past several days will be a thickening blanket of highs clouds that will push northward from low pressure drifting north from the Carolinas to the Mid Atlantic.
Only cosmetic changes to the current forecast as high pressure remains firmly in control of the weather across northern Michigan. Lows generally in the 50s, with 40s in the typically cooler locations. Guidance is a few degrees cooler Tuesday for highs but still think it will reach into the mid and upper 80s. Tonight will likely be a little cooler than last night with lows ranging from the mid 40s to the mid 50s. Daily high temperatures through the work week largely in the low-mid 80s -- cooler near the lakeshores. High pressure will remain in control of the weather across the northern Great Lakes the next several days.
955 PM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024 Models are struggling with the cloud cover on the backside of the east coast low pressure system. The high pressure wedge is still dominating the weather pattern over GA with good easterly surface winds, but it is weakening. This tropical system rotating over the Carolinas is helping to bring in a drier airmass wrapping around the backside of the low center.
1237 AM EST Thu Feb 20 2025 Low pressure over the Upper Mississippi Valley to track southeast across the area overnight into Thursday, bringing light snow to the area.
1007 PM EST Wed Feb 19 2025 Low pressure over the Upper Mississippi Valley to track southeast across the area overnight into Thursday, bringing light snow to the area.
124 AM EST Thu Feb 20 2025 Weak high pressure builds toward the region overnight. Low pressure tracks south of the area Thursday and Thursday night.
(Today and tonight) The bitter cold airmass continues this morning across west central Texas as a 1040mb high pressure center is located over the central Plains. The aforementioned high pressure center will move southeastward into the mid-Mississippi Valley through tonight. More sunshine is expected today although some clouds, due to a stout inversion in the low levels, will linger through the day.
535 AM CST Thu Feb 20 2025 (Today) Arctic air continues to gradually filter into the mid TN Valley this early Thu morning, as a very large dome of high pressure builds into the northern/mid Plains states. Temps will struggle to reach the freezing mark this afternoon, with many spots remaining in the 20s.
Sub-freezing temperatures continue in most areas through Friday night.
Arctic high pressure will nudge a tad east tonight, allowing for a more mixy boundary layer.
Recent snowfall or refreezing of melted snow will leave some roadways slick into the early to mid-morning hours.
An inside slider trough to the east of the region will yield offshore surface pressure gradients through at least Friday. Then a ridge of high pressure will build into the region this weekend.
517 AM CST Thu Feb 20 2025 -Temperatures will remain below freezing through Friday morning, with an Extreme Cold Warning for Thursday morning. With windchill temperatures this low, look for the Extreme Cold Warning to stay in place until noon this afternoon for all counties. Moving into late tonight into Friday morning, model agreement is still on track for an upper-level closed low to brush the northern portions of the Panhandles. While the placement of this low is not very indicative of active weather for the area, a few model do see a low chance (less than 10%) of some flurries across the Oklahoma Panhandle.
Tranquil and warm weather conditions will continue into the weekend even as a weak weather system passes just to the north of the region causing breezy conditions mainly focused over the Lower Colorado River Valley this afternoon and again on Friday afternoon.
529 AM CST Thu Feb 20 2025 (Today through Friday) High pressure continues northerly winds and CAA through the short term period as low pressure develops along the lower Texas coast and overrunning precipitation settles in. Temperatures across the ranchlands are nearing freezing, with wind chill values dropping across all of Deep South Texas.
- Warmer weather is expected this weekend. Temps and wind chills have been well short of the Extreme Cold Warning under the low clouds; however, remaining areas were fairing colder and as such we'll keep the warning intact through the morning even as mid-level clouds expand in coverage. NBM remains too generous with highs for today in light of the aforementioned clouds, so a cooler CONSSHORT solution looks best. Stratus should expand north later this afternoon and evening as the chilly low-level ridge finally departs and winds veer more southeasterly, so min temps should go down on the milder side for once with few single digits expected.
629 AM EST Thu Feb 20 2025 Arctic high pressure will follow and migrate from the northern Plains to the Middle Atlantic, producing cold and dry weather today into Sat.
Although we will start to see a decrease in cloud cover later this afternoon, temperatures across parts of north MS, northeast LA, and southeast AR will not get above freezing today. Elsewhere, daytime temperatures will peak into the low/mid 40s.
Temperatures during the day on Thursday will struggle to approach the freezing mark across the far northwest. Strong cold advection will keep conditions quite chilly today, and it will probably struggle to get above freezing in the northernmost counties.
Friday: Subtle mid level height rises will lead to "warmer" conditions on Friday with return flow over the area.
Otherwise, an area of high pressure will bring above normal temperatures through the forecast period.
(Today through Friday) High pressure continues northerly winds and CAA through the short term period as low pressure develops along the lower Texas coast and overrunning precipitation settles in. Temperatures across the ranchlands are nearing freezing, with wind chill values dropping across all of Deep South Texas.
- Warmer temperatures move in over the weekend, with above normal temperatures and mostly dry conditions expected through the forecast period. Upper air models depict low pressure over IN/IL with ridge building over the Rockies. Surface south to southeasterly flow will temper highs today somewhat, but still warmer than the last few days, with highs today in the mid teens to mid 20s.
420 AM EST Thu Feb 20 2025 Arctic high pressure will follow and migrate from the northern Plains to the Middle Atlantic, producing cold and dry weather today into Sat.
(Today through Friday) An upper trough is crossing Middle Tennessee early this morning, and that has brought a final round of light snow and flurries to the region.
The lower conditions may linger into the early afternoon hours for the Klamath Basin. High pressure has returned and will remain in place into Friday. This will result in some cold mornings, areas of overnight/morning low clouds or fog in valleys and warmer daytime temperatures. This ridge will push the preferred storm track to the north, and a few impulses will pass just to our north through the weekend. The first of these is an upper low that will approach British Columbia coast late Friday, with the trailing southern end of a weakening cold front just glancing the forecast area Friday evening and overnight.
And while there is a ridge of high pressure that has settled into the region, there are still winds at 7 to 10 mph at times, which is creating wind chills from 25 to 40 below.
Low clouds still linger behind the cold front that is currently situated across SWFL. The cooler temperatures stick around through the weekend. This afternoon and evening should see conditions clearing as a cooler, drier air mass moves over the area.
615 AM EST Thu Feb 20 2025 (Today through Friday) Cold front is slowly moving southward across the area early this morning, and should clear South FL by mid to late morning. Afternoon high temps will range from the low to mid 70s around the lake, to around 80 over the far southern peninsula. Drier and cooler air filters in tonight into Friday as strong high pressure to our north builds in. The pleasant weather will continue into Friday with mostly sunny skies and highs only reaching the low to mid 70s.
High pressure has returned and will remain in place into Friday. This will result in some cold mornings, areas of overnight/morning low clouds or fog in valleys and warmer daytime temperatures. This ridge will push the preferred storm track to the north, and a few impulses will pass just to our north through the weekend. The first of these is an upper low that will approach British Columbia coast late Friday, with the trailing southern end of a weakening cold front just glancing the forecast area Friday evening and overnight.
700 AM EST Thu Feb 20 2025 Arctic high pressure will follow and migrate from the northern Plains to the Middle Atlantic, producing cold and dry weather today into Sat.
Motorists should continue to use caution while driving, especially on secondary/back roads and roads that go over ridgetops which may already have a few areas of patchy black ice on them from yesterday's event.
Dry and warmer for the weekend. KEY MESSAGES: - Widespread light snow this morning - Winter Weather Advisory for PA/WV ridges. Light snow will spread across the area from west to east this morning ahead of the low. The low will bring a cold pool aloft eastward with it, increasing instability as it passes. All of this is pointing to more convective snow showers developing under and behind the upper low. The highest accumulations are expected over the ridges where winter weather advisories remain posted.
1242 PM MST Thu Feb 20 2025 - Much warmer temperatures heading through the weekend. Water vapor shows upper trof axis from the Upper Midwest through the Central Rockies, with upper ridge over the Northern Rockies. At the surface, ridge is over the far eastern Dakotas, with staunch pressure falls westward to the Rocky Mountain Front. Much warmer temperatures can be expected through the weekend with generally flat upper ridge building overhead and Arctic air continuing to shallow/erode. Many areas should reach or exceed freezing Friday, and continue to warm over the weekend.
Temperatures are lower than 24 hours ago due to increased cloud cover and freshening winds with the highest values only just reaching the upper 70s. Breezes will continue to freshen from west to east throughout today and into tonight bringing with it cooler and drier air. From synopsis, a cold front will continue to move through the Keys coastal waters today, bringing fresh to possibly strong northeasterly breezes through Friday night.
The warm air has moved in at mid-levels over northeast Montana but low-level southeasterly winds have kept temps much cooler. The winds should gradually turn around and allow the warmer chinooked air to move in tonight.
An upper level short wave trough will pass just to our north across eastern Colorado and western Kansas late tonight into Friday.
242 PM EST Thu Feb 20 2025 - Lingering Light Snow Tonight - Warmer With Several Chances For Rain/Snow - Lingering Light Snow Tonight Radar reflectivities are trending down across inland Michigan with lake effect snow still ongoing over southwest Michigan. We're in a bit of a transition period along the lakeshore as the trough exits the area and the wind shifts more to the northwest creating a longer fetch across the lake. - Warmer With Several Chances For Rain/Snow High pressure briefly moves in for Friday with dry conditions and highs in the upper 20s.
Temperatures this afternoon should range from the low to mid 70s around the Lake region, and in the upper 70s to around 80 over the far southern peninsula. Drier and cooler air filters in tonight into Friday as strong high pressure to our north builds in. The pleasant weather will continue into Friday with mostly sunny skies and highs only reaching the low to mid 70s.
(18Z TAFS) Very strong arctic high pressure (1040+mb) centered over the Nation's mid-section will contribute to a well established northerly flow through the afternoon with wind gusts 20 to 30 kts at times. Lingering clouds that were streaming southeast over the area earlier in the day at the base of the cyclonic flow around an upper low centered over the eastern Great Lakes has eroded as drier air overtakes the local area. Overnight lows Friday night in the mid to upper 20's interior to closer to freezing down across the I-65 corridor.
For areas in SW AR and along and south of the I-20 corridor, overnight wind chills will reach the low to mid teens. Temperatures Friday will still be cold, but a few degrees warmer than they have been recently. The cloud cover will spread to cover the southern half of the forecast area during the day on Friday upstream of the next upper- level trough. The continued cloud cover will create a wider range of overnight lows on Friday night, with northern zones dropping to the low 20s and southern zones only reaching the low 30s.
With a weak upper ridge developing today, light winds will offer minimal chances for mixing. The lower conditions may linger into the early afternoon hours for the Klamath Basin. Increasing southerly winds and building seas are expected Friday ahead of a rather weak cold front.
With the high shifting east tmrw into the weekend, a warmup ensues. The forecast is increasingly high pressure dominated, which leads to a clear sky/light wind overnight.