Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Otherwise, the forecast remains on track as an arctic airmass keeps temperatures very cold today with readings below freezing areawide.
After an unseasonably warm day yesterday, a cold front will push in east to west over the area this morning bringing many locations near or below normal temperatures this afternoon.
Whereas areas farther north and east towards the twin cities metro and Western Wisconsin will be slightly warmer with wind chills in the teens below zero.
534 AM CST Fri Jan 19 2024 (Today and tonight) In the wake of a strong cold front tracking through our area early this morning, cold and windy conditions can be expected today across much of West Central Texas. Temperatures this morning will start off in the low to mid 20s, with gusty winds from 15 to 25 mph with some gusts as high as 40 mph. Even though there will be mostly sunny skies today, temperatures will struggle to reach into the mid 30s to mid 40s this afternoon, keeping the high temperatures for today below seasonal normals.
536 AM CST Fri Jan 19 2024 An arctic cold front will move through the Mid-South this morning bringing a return of dry and colder air for much of the weekend.
525 AM CST Fri Jan 19 2024 (Today and tonight) The cold front has made it through OK early this morning and breezy north winds continue behind it.
518 AM CST Fri Jan 19 2024 (Today through Saturday afternoon) A cold front is currently moving through the Permian Basin. The upper trough that brought the cold front is already moving into the Great Lakes and a western U. ridge is moving into the Great Plains, thus there is no lift or moisture available in the short term for any precipitation.
(Today and tonight) The cold front has made it through OK early this morning and breezy north winds continue behind it.
(Today through Saturday Night) Some FZFG persists across portions of central, eastern and southern Arkansas early this morning but this threat will quickly diminish as a strong cold front continues to make southward progress across the state. Behind the front, Arctic high pressure will settle over the region beneath NW flow aloft.
Synoptic Overview: NW flow aloft, on the southwest periphery of an expansive upper level low over the Upper Great Lakes, will back to the W on Saturday as a deamplifying ridge over the Intermountain West extends eastward across the Rockies and High Plains. as an upper level trough supplants the aforementioned ridge over the Intermountain West. Expect relatively warmer temperatures as one progresses (uphill) to the west. While pervasive snow cover will no doubt impact temperatures to some extent, fostering cooler temperatures during the day and at night.
For today, high pressure will bring a round of fair weather and above-normal daytime temperatures under increasing high clouds.
NW winds will diminish this morning as the high moves in. The high moves to the east this evening which will allow SE winds to develop while bitter cold temperatures remain in place. Upper ridge moves into the area on Saturday with warmer temperatures.
Ridge moves across the area on Saturday, leading to weak winds but cold air remains in place.
This along with ridging far out in the Atlantic is resulting in weak mostly southerly breezes in the Keys. Meanwhile, a cold front, associated with a mid- latitude low off the mid- Atlantic coast is makings its way slowly southeastward into the Gulf of Mexico. The gulf cold front will begin picking up steam, propelled by high pressure spilling down the plains. The cold front will finally push through the Keys this evening into tonight and bring with it freshening northerly breezes and some of the coolest temperatures seen yet this season. The high is of high latitude origin and will bring with it a good slug of cool air.
516 AM CST Fri Jan 19 2024 (Today through Saturday Night) Some FZFG persists across portions of central, eastern and southern Arkansas early this morning but this threat will quickly diminish as a strong cold front continues to make southward progress across the state. Behind the front, Arctic high pressure will settle over the region beneath NW flow aloft.
520 AM CST Fri Jan 19 2024 (Today and tonight) A chilly airmass has once again returned to the region behind a strong overnight cold front with low temperatures this morning as much as 50 degrees colder than the mild highs observed yesterday afternoon. Very little change in the synoptic pattern and the expansive high pressure over the central CONUS will allow dry conditions to continue and the cool airmass to remain in place locally over the next 24 hours, with daytime highs generally 15 to 20 degrees below normal today and lows in the teens area-wide tonight.
Dry conditions under high pressure will persist through tonight before active weather pattern returns to the state Saturday. A ridge of high pressure over the region will support dry conditions along with light winds today. Southwest flow ahead of a low pressure system off the coast of California will keep mid and upper moisture high through tonight with a mix of rain and higher elevation snow returning Saturday morning from west to east. Precipitation amounts will be light and on the low side with impacts to roads mainly on passes as snow levels will range form about 6000 feet across northern Nevada to 7000 feet across central Nevada.
An arctic cold front will move through the Mid-South this morning bringing a return of dry and colder air for much of the weekend.
Any fog that has developed will diminish and clear out a couple hours after sunrise, with the focus then turning to the incoming cold front that is expected to push into the region Friday evening into the overnight hours. Due to a generally zonal flow pattern aloft and the only true forcing component being the cold front, any impacts are expected to be minimal from showers and storms on Friday. Dry conditions will take over Friday night and Saturday behind the front with cooler temperatures being observed too. High temperatures on Friday will be in the upper 70s to low 80s, and on Saturday they will be in the low to mid 60s near the lake and in the upper 60s for most other locations.
Quiet day in store for most of us as a weak ridge of high pressure builds into the region. Tonight a low pressure system will approach the northern California coast. Many of the high resolution models are showing weak radar returns associated with trace amounts of precipitation in the valleys. NAM soundings are suggesting that as surface temperatures fall below freezing that this precipitation could fall as light freezing drizzle. On Saturday, the low works onshore into Oregon and Washington. Some soundings were once again suggesting some brief freezing rain potential, although confidence of that occurring is pretty low at this point as temperatures may hold just above freezing Saturday night in many of the valleys.
306 PM EST Fri Jan 19 2024 Strong NW winds associated with building high pressure will usher in a very cold and dry airmass into the area over the weekend.
(This afternoon through Saturday night) WV imagery shows dry, northwest flow aloft continues over West Texas and Southeast New Mexico this afternoon, as an upper ridge approaches the Four Corners. At the surface, a cold front has made it to the Rio Grande, with CAA in full force behind it. As a result, much of the CWA is still below freezing at 19Z. Unfortunately, persistent CAA through Saturday morning, as well as the aforementioned cloud cover increasing from the west, will keep highs Saturday similar to today's, if not a degree colder, despite the ridge moving through the region. Saturday night, flow aloft transitions to southwest on the backside of the ridge as the next broad trough approaches.
(Rest of today through Saturday) A cold front will continue to gradually push across South Florida through this evening, resulting in overcast skies, scattered rain showers, and potentially a few thunderstorms. Due to a generally zonal flow pattern aloft, minimized instability, and the only true forcing component being the cold front, any impacts from showers or storms are expected to be minimal. Northerly winds behind the front will bring a drier and cooler airmass over South Florida for Friday night and Saturday. High temperatures will be in the low to mid 60s near the lake and in the upper 60s for most other locations.
1143 AM CST Fri Jan 19 2024 Brisk north winds will become lighter into the afternoon but will still facilitate ample cold air advection, with highs ranging from just above freezing in southeast Oklahoma to the middle 40s across deep east Texas into north central Louisiana.
(This evening through Saturday) Cold temperatures will persist across the area into Saturday, in the wake of the cold front that moved through last night.
214 PM EST Fri Jan 19 2024 A strong cold front will sweep across the region today with arctic high pressure following for the weekend.
1134 AM CST Fri Jan 19 2024 - A light wintry mix of freezing drizzle/fog with a light dusting of snow combines to continue potential travel hazards through this morning. Amounts will be very light/dusting but in sub freezing temperatures.
Today has been the tale of two boundaries, as a warm front in the south has struggled to move north into our area as a cold front from the north has begun to drift south over the area. A line of showers associated with the warm front have been impacting southern counties, and those should diminish and move out of the area by this evening. Meanwhile, the cold front that is pushing south has a thin line of showers associated with it, which could impact the Tampa Bay area, if they hold together. Behind the front cold, dry air will begin to filter in as high pressure builds over the area.
1043 AM CST Fri Jan 19 2024 Brisk north winds will become lighter into the afternoon but will still facilitate ample cold air advection, with highs ranging from just above freezing in southeast Oklahoma to the middle 40s across deep east Texas into north central Louisiana.
Otherwise, winds are almost dead calm with temperatures in the lower to mid 70s. Otherwise, the island chain should get some sunshine later this morning and afternoon and temperatures should rise into the lower 80s. However a strong cold front will drive through the area this evening into tonight. As strong high pressure builds over the Tennessee Valley behind the front and slowly slides eastward to the Mid- Atlantic, strong northerly breezes will veer to the northeast to east over the weekend.
1059 AM CST Fri Jan 19 2024 (Today through Saturday afternoon) A cold front is currently moving through the Permian Basin. The upper trough that brought the cold front is already moving into the Great Lakes and a western U. ridge is moving into the Great Plains, thus there is no lift or moisture available in the short term for any precipitation.
Broad upper trough from the Upper Midwest to the Ohio Valley. A cold front pushes through the area this morning. However, a secondary trough/front will move through late this afternoon followed by drier air. Lows tonight in the low to mid 20s. As the 500mb trough axis pivots to our northeast, northwest cold advection at lower levels will continue, albeit weakening a bit, during the daytime hours which will also help continue the supply of some extremely dry air; PWAT's will remain below 0. The NAEFS and EC EFI both highlight the highly anomalous nature of the min temps in this period, but we are not expecting record lows (mainly due to this being climatologically the coldest time of year).
1051 AM CST Fri Jan 19 2024 Surface analysis late this morning places an arctic cold front from the Mid-Atlantic states and into the central Gulf of Mexico. Strong cold air advection is resulting in gusty north winds across the Mid-South with temperatures as of 10 AM CST mainly in the lower 20s north to the lower 30s over north Mississippi. CJC An arctic cold front will move through the Mid-South this morning bringing a return of dry and colder air for much of the weekend.
North winds continue to increase in speed, with occasional gusts up to 25 MPH, as cold air advection ushers in a cooler and drier airmass. Precipitable water values will be on the increase beginning Saturday into Saturday night ahead of broad troughing setting up across the western US.
BB/03 (Now through Saturday) We return to the freezer for the near term period as a strong cold front has worked its way across the forecast area. The good news is with high pressure settling in at the surface and the forecast area seeing height rises through the period dry weather will prevail. Nearer the coast isn't much better, with highs only topping out in the lower 40's.
1144 AM CST Fri Jan 19 2024 (Today and tonight) In the wake of a strong cold front tracking through our area early this morning, cold and windy conditions can be expected today across much of West Central Texas. Temperatures this morning will start off in the low to mid 20s, with gusty winds from 15 to 25 mph with some gusts as high as 40 mph. Even though there will be mostly sunny skies today, temperatures will struggle to reach into the mid 30s to mid 40s this afternoon, keeping the high temperatures for today below seasonal normals.
1118 AM CST Fri Jan 19 2024 (Today through Saturday Night) Some FZFG persists across portions of central, eastern and southern Arkansas early this morning but this threat will quickly diminish as a strong cold front continues to make southward progress across the state. Behind the front, Arctic high pressure will settle over the region beneath NW flow aloft.
116 PM MST Fri Jan 19 2024 111 PM MST Fri Jan 19 2024 - Arctic high brings very cold wind chills tonight and then robust return flow Saturday - Mean upper ridge dominates the weather for rest of the forecast 19z surface analysis had sprawling 1040mb arctic high across the entire plains states. Water vapour loop showed upper ridge over the Rockies and upper low over the Great Lakes. Effects of retreating Arctic high and upper ridge main forecast concern. Temperatures Saturday will be near guidance with 80%+ chances for 32F+ MaxT over the higher Black Hills/northeast WY.
1148 AM CST Fri Jan 19 2024 (Today and tonight) A chilly airmass has once again returned to the region behind a strong overnight cold front with low temperatures this morning as much as 50 degrees colder than the mild highs observed yesterday afternoon. Very little change in the synoptic pattern and the expansive high pressure over the central CONUS will allow dry conditions to continue and the cool airmass to remain in place locally over the next 24 hours, with daytime highs generally 15 to 20 degrees below normal today and lows in the teens area-wide tonight.
1248 PM EST Fri Jan 19 2024 Snow is expected through Saturday with the crossing of low pressure system.
(This evening through Saturday) Surface ridging will dominate this evening through the overnight hours and will help keep overnight temps cool.
- Western WY will see light snow showers return by Saturday night, with snow accumulations remaining predominantly in the higher elevation mountain ranges. After a quick moving cold front moved through yesterday, cold temperatures linger across the snow covered Wind River and Bighorn Basins today. Based off current long range models, this looks to have a solid chance of occurring (70%), as strong ridging attempts to establish itself across our region. Ridging has begun to build over the western CONUS this morning.
Impressive cold advection continues this afternoon just on the upstream of the side of the upper level trough axis and within the left entrance region of a slightly-curved mid-level jet streak. Upper flow becomes increasingly north-northwesterly through Saturday evening as arctic high pressure at the surface settles over eastern Kentucky.
1131 AM CST Fri Jan 19 2024 (Today and tonight) The cold front has made it through OK early this morning and breezy north winds continue behind it.
1154 AM CST Fri Jan 19 2024 Surface analysis late this morning places an arctic cold front from the Mid-Atlantic states and into the central Gulf of Mexico. Strong cold air advection is resulting in gusty north winds across the Mid-South with temperatures as of 10 AM CST mainly in the lower 20s north to the lower 30s over north Mississippi. CJC An arctic cold front will move through the Mid-South this morning bringing a return of dry and colder air for much of the weekend.
While temperatures have hovered at or just above the freezing mark all day, this will change quickly by late afternoon and early this evening as temperatures plummet in wake of the arctic front. Due to bitter cold freezing air, any lingering moisture on roadways will refreeze quickly this evening and significant travel impacts will remain due to black ice on roadways.
(Tonight through Saturday night) Key Messages: - Freezing temperatures expected tonight. High pressure over the region should keep us high, dry and cold tonight. Freezing temperatures are expected across much of the region after midnight tonight. Areas north of a Port Aransas to Freer line can expect several hours below freezing, while south of this line only a few hours are anticipated. Models are not handling it well, but it looks like it may be associated with some week isentropic flow with a kink in the isotherms in the lower to mid levels. Expect this to kick out to the east later today, so will not be making any related changes to the temperature forecast, but should this cloud deck persist and continue northward, it could certainly cause temperatures to remain warmer.
Temperatures will trend slightly warmer through the afternoon and are expected to above 32F, including the Lower Treasure Valley. Saturday morning, medium confidence for freezing rain being the favored precip type in the Treasure Valley, but high confidence in patchy fog redevelopment.
The aforementioned front will surge through this evening with a strong high pressure moving in behind this feature starting Saturday. The act of the high pressure moving in will result in a prolonged blow across the island chain and surrounding coastal waters. Thereafter as the high shifts further east and out across the North Atlantic, winds will shift around to the east and eventually southeast.
(Tonight through Saturday night) Northerly winds continue to bring cooler, drier air to South Central Texas behind a cold that is now south of Texas. Temperatures this afternoon are 15 to 30 degrees cooler than 24 hours ago and dewpoints are 15 to 25 degrees lower. With the high moving toward the east, the winds across the region will become easterly and this will begin a warming trend for Saturday night.
The only concern tonight will be for some freezing drizzle across the southern half of the forecast area. Model soundings show a pronounced nose of moist, warm air just above the surface, which would be below freezing. If any of this precipitates out, some light freezing drizzle would be possible. Not expecting this to be very widespread but it is plausible so continued freezing drizzle mention in the forecast across many valley locations.
Warmer than normal temperatures continue into Saturday.
- Clear skies and calm winds will help lower temperatures to the low single digits Saturday night, with a few locations dropping just below 0 degrees.
420 PM MST Fri Jan 19 2024 111 PM MST Fri Jan 19 2024 - Arctic high brings very cold wind chills tonight and then robust return flow Saturday - Mean upper ridge dominates the weather for rest of the forecast 19z surface analysis had sprawling 1040mb arctic high across the entire plains states. Water vapour loop showed upper ridge over the Rockies and upper low over the Great Lakes. Effects of retreating Arctic high and upper ridge main forecast concern. Temperatures Saturday will be near guidance with 80%+ chances for 32F+ MaxT over the higher Black Hills/northeast WY.
232 PM PST Fri Jan 19 2024 Breezy northeast winds will keep the cold airmass in place as the warm front slides northeast through late Friday. Temperatures will slowly moderate through the weekend with pockets of mixed precipitation continuing before warming above freezing. Today: The influence of the warm front from the southwest continues to be faced with a stronger northeast push of cold, drier air looking at the surface analysis. Looking for areas that are reaching or surpassing freezing, you'll have to look to Portland and toward La Grande, OR. Several places observed freezing rain however briefly with little to no accumulation observed. As the freezing rain fell onto fresh snow, some slick spots were likely noted and as we maintain temperatures in the low 20s, bare surfaces will remain slick.
The cold front is currently moving thru our southern zones early this evening as the weak showers have faded but the Arctic airmass is on the way into the region for a cold FL weekend.
Ridging was working into the region with warm air advection at the mid and upper levels. Temperatures increase further on Saturday as the ridge axis slides over the area.
535 PM CST Fri Jan 19 2024 (This evening through Saturday) Cold temperatures will persist across the area into Saturday, in the wake of the cold front that moved through last night.
455 PM CST Fri Jan 19 2024 (This afternoon through Saturday night) WV imagery shows dry, northwest flow aloft continues over West Texas and Southeast New Mexico this afternoon, as an upper ridge approaches the Four Corners. At the surface, a cold front has made it to the Rio Grande, with CAA in full force behind it. As a result, much of the CWA is still below freezing at 19Z. Unfortunately, persistent CAA through Saturday morning, as well as the aforementioned cloud cover increasing from the west, will keep highs Saturday similar to today's, if not a degree colder, despite the ridge moving through the region. Saturday night, flow aloft transitions to southwest on the backside of the ridge as the next broad trough approaches.
342 PM PST Fri Jan 19 2024 Breezy northeast winds will keep the cold airmass in place as the warm front slides northeast through late Friday. Temperatures will slowly moderate through the weekend with pockets of mixed precipitation continuing before warming above freezing. Today: The influence of the warm front from the southwest continues to be faced with a stronger northeast push of cold, drier air looking at the surface analysis. Looking for areas that are reaching or surpassing freezing, you'll have to look to Portland and toward La Grande, OR. Several places observed freezing rain however briefly with little to no accumulation observed. As the freezing rain fell onto fresh snow, some slick spots were likely noted and as we maintain temperatures in the low 20s, bare surfaces will remain slick.
Satellite imagery depicts northwesterly flow over the region, as ridging begins to build in across the Rockies. Skies are partly to mostly cloudy, as mid and upper-level moisture continues to stream in over the ridge. Most plains locations are still in the low to mid 20s as of 3 PM. As the ridge continues to push eastward, we remain dry across southeastern and south-central Colorado. Downsloping winds should help most of our mountain valleys and mountain adjacent plains to warm into the low to mid 40s for daytime highs. A good portion of the lower Arkansas River Valley and points northward will likely see calmer winds and cooler temperatures with highs topping out in the mid 30s.
536 PM CST Fri Jan 19 2024 (Tonight through Saturday night) Northerly winds continue to bring cooler, drier air to South Central Texas behind a cold that is now south of Texas. Temperatures this afternoon are 15 to 30 degrees cooler than 24 hours ago and dewpoints are 15 to 25 degrees lower. With the high moving toward the east, the winds across the region will become easterly and this will begin a warming trend for Saturday night.
645 PM EST Fri Jan 19 2024 Strong NW winds associated with building high pressure will usher in a very cold and dry airmass into the area over the weekend.
547 PM CST Fri Jan 19 2024 (This evening through Saturday) Surface ridging will dominate this evening through the overnight hours and will help keep overnight temps cool.