Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
559 PM CDT Sat May 24 2025 (This evening through Sunday night) Upper ridging centered from Texas to Nebraska this afternoon, with a trough extending from Montana to near Los Angeles. At the surface, high pressure extended from Lake Michigan to the eastern Gulf. Most areas were seeing temperatures in the mid and upper 80s, but a few locations will top out in the lower 90s.
A flood advisory was already needed earlier for Banner County, NE, and with the highest moisture values for our CWA in the Nebraska Panhandle, this region will be the most likely for continued risk of flooding. At the upper levels, a broad trough will continue to slowly progress eastwards through the period while a ridge of high pressure will try and take control of the Western US through the end of the period, though a weak low off the California coast moving into the Baja Peninsula will limit the strength of this ridge.
An area of low pressure is currently spinning over southern Nevada, keeping Southeastern Arizona under dry southwest flow aloft.
A strong ridge is building into the region, resulting in dry and warm weather through the holiday weekend. The next upper trough will slowly move east towards the coast late Sunday afternoon. By Sunday afternoon, the trough will begin to push onshore, and this will bring us a chance for showers and thunderstorms over portions of the area.
658 PM EDT Sat May 24 2025 - A few sprinkles with perhaps a couple isolated showers over The Thumb in store for today and Sunday with gradual warming, into the low 60s.
633 PM CDT Sat May 24 2025 (Tonight through Sunday night) A mid-level ridge conditons to be the dominate influence for the weather of Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley for the short term forecast. Meanwhile, the low temperatures for tonight and tomorrow night are expected to be mostly in the 70s while southern parts of the CWA could be in the low 80s. Finally, elevated seas along the Lower Texas Coast will continue to produce a moderate risk of rip currents at the local beaches through the weekend.
900 PM MDT Sat May 24 2025 - A few severe thunderstorms possible over the Palmer Ridge through 10 PM this evening, pushing eastward into Lincoln County until 4 AM. - Dense Fog Advisory for a large portion of the lower elevations until late Sunday morning.
Upper level ridging will lead to warmer and dry conditions across western Washington today.
955 PM CDT Sat May 24 2025 (Tonight through Sunday night) Key Messages: - Moderate to Extreme Risk of Heat-Related Impacts (level 2/4 out of 4) High pressure is expected to continue to dominate the forecast through Sunday afternoon. The increased subsidence will lead to warmer temperatures and slightly lower moisture (PWAT values near 1.
- Strong to severe storms possible this afternoon and overnight - Excessive rainfall expected tonight and Sunday night - On and off showers and storms remain possible through the late work week Currently at 11:30am, there is a trough over the Northern Rockies with the base of the trough over southern California. Going into Sunday, the upper ridge will continue to move eastward, and the upper-level trough in southern California is expected to traverse into the Central Great Basin/Desert Southwest, returning southwesterly flow aloft to our area.
643 PM CDT Sat May 24 2025 (Tonight through Sunday night) Key Messages: - Moderate to Extreme Risk of Heat-Related Impacts (level 2/4 out of 4) High pressure is expected to continue to dominate the forecast through Sunday afternoon. The increased subsidence will lead to warmer temperatures and slightly lower moisture (PWAT values near 1.
602 PM MDT Sat May 24 2025 - A few severe thunderstorms possible over the Palmer Ridge through 8 PM this evening.
738 PM EDT Sat May 24 2025 * Cooler than average holiday weekend with a brisk breeze and spotty showers giving way to more sunshine and marginally warmer temperatures by Memorial Day.
657 PM EDT Sat May 24 2025 * Cooler than average holiday weekend with a brisk breeze and spotty showers giving way to more sunshine and marginally warmer temperatures by Memorial Day.
Changes made this evening were two-fold: first, shaved a couple degrees off of low temperatures throughout the CWA east of the Missouri River valley (20-60% chance that said area will fall below 40 degrees tonight) closer to a 38 to 42F degree range instead of the warmer values inherited. An upper level trough over the Great Basin on Sunday may spread additional showers and thunderstorms into western South Dakota.
These are just a lot of words to say that today felt sweltering again, even though we were technically a little bit cooler than yesterday. High pressure will build over the northeastern CONUS, allowing breezes to veer southeasterly.
810 PM EDT Sat May 24 2025 An upper level low will slowly exit through Sunday. High pressure will then bring mainly dry and somewhat warmer weather for Memorial Day. Overnight lows will dip to the low to mid 40s.
The low-level jet will continue to enhance lift through the early morning hours. Through the rest of today, the upper level ridge will continue its gradual shift east and the ridge axis will be centered over the Central Plains. This reprieve will be temporary as ridging will build back in over the region by the end of the week.
1234 AM CDT Sun May 25 2025 (Tonight through Sunday night) A mid-level ridge conditons to be the dominate influence for the weather of Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley for the short term forecast. Meanwhile, the low temperatures for tonight and tomorrow night are expected to be mostly in the 70s while southern parts of the CWA could be in the low 80s. Finally, elevated seas along the Lower Texas Coast will continue to produce a moderate risk of rip currents at the local beaches through the weekend.
(Today through Monday) - Moderate to Extreme Risk of Heat-Related Impacts (level 2-4 out of 4) today and Monday Hot and mostly dry conditions will continue through Memorial Day as high pressure remains in place.
(Tonight through Monday Night) Cooler air has settled in this evening with appreciable dew point depressions across our TN/KY counties.
1204 AM CDT Sun May 25 2025 - Strong to severe storms possible this afternoon and overnight - Excessive rainfall expected tonight and Sunday night - On and off showers and storms remain possible through the late work week Currently at 11:30am, there is a trough over the Northern Rockies with the base of the trough over southern California. Going into Sunday, the upper ridge will continue to move eastward, and the upper-level trough in southern California is expected to traverse into the Central Great Basin/Desert Southwest, returning southwesterly flow aloft to our area.
Large scale pattern features ridging still in place over the northern Rockies, with broad upper low over the Great Lakes.
The highest concentrations are expected to remain west of US53/I-35 but another batch of smoke may arrive for Monday as well.
A decaying low pressure system across the Great Basin today will continue to weaken as it moves towards the east. The low finally lifts out of the region late Sunday into Monday. A weak ridge tries to build in on Monday as another trough starts to develop across the Great Basin. The end of the week may bring some hope for an increase in moisture as a low may stall just off the coast of southern California with a ridge across the desert southwest.
* Today will be warmer, Monday a bit of cooling, then warming again through late week and the remainder of May. Infrared satellite imagery overnight showed the weak upper low continuing it's slow trek eastward, taking the moisture source with it as it goes. Another trough is positioning itself off the northwestern Pacific coast, which will influence winds over northern California and northwestern Nevada late this afternoon and evening. Sierra ridges near Tahoe will gust out of the southwest to 40 mph. This will help to hold temperatures in check for Monday, with western Nevada valleys topping out in the lower 80s and Sierra locations reaching upper 60s to low 70s. With a trough swinging to our north, there could be some showers along the Oregon border that swing by.
The U/L subtropical ridge is now well established back over the Florida peninsula creating large scale subsidence and temperatures several degrees above normal. 5C on the 25/12Z sounding, the combination of deeper moisture and slightly warmer mid level temps will decrease the risk for severe storms. Very similar conditions expected through the upcoming week as the U/L subtropical ridge will hold over the forecast area.
A flood advisory was already needed earlier for Banner County, NE, and with the highest moisture values for our CWA in the Nebraska Panhandle, this region will be the most likely for continued risk of flooding. At the upper levels, a broad trough will continue to slowly progress eastwards through the period while a ridge of high pressure will try and take control of the Western US through the end of the period, though a weak low off the California coast moving into the Baja Peninsula will limit the strength of this ridge. At the surface, low pressure in the Southern Plains on Monday will evolve eastwards through the weak, but a weak lingering stalled boundary and some small disturbances will continue to to move across our area all the way through the end of the week.
Lake County will see the highest winds with 25-35 mph gusts possible. NBM is showing around a 25-40% chance for measurable rain with the highest probability in Del Norte. Ridging builds back in for much of the week, though there is considerable variability on the strength of this ridge. Depending on the position of the low, offshore flow could promote the warmest temperatures of the year so far.
A deep trough will begin to take shape over the Rocky Mountains, putting our region back into SW flow aloft.
Subsidence from the upper-level ridge moving in and clearer skies tonight will bring another round of patchy fog for the North-Central plains. Sunday is currently trending drier with the ridge building in.
Even though many locations saw highs in the 70s today, temperatures have already retreated into the lower to mid 60s, with upper 50s near water. Upper level ridging will lead to warmer and dry conditions across western Washington today. A weak front will bring in cooler temperatures and a round of showers late Sunday through Monday.
1230 AM CDT Sun May 25 2025 Updated at 1230 AM CDT Sun May 25 2025 - Thunderstorm chances continue through the holiday weekend with a chance of severe storms each day - Heavy rainfall and flooding may occur especially with a cold front Sunday into Monday - Cooler temperatures are possible behind a front early this week. Expect this activity to continue/increase through the night as a 700mb wave moves through and the low level jet develops, then shift off eastward toward morning. The low level jet may aid in some of this westward development over central Oklahoma. Convection is expected to continue overnight into Monday morning as the upper low approaches.
1251 AM MDT Sun May 25 2025 -Cloudy and cool through Memorial Day with chances for showers in areas -Semi-unsettled weather continues the rest of the week with daily chances for showers and a few storms -Warming for the second half of the week Mean troughing can be expected locally through much of the period as a weak Rex blocking pattern persists. Stalled frontal boundary coupled with a slow moving upper trough will support chances showers the next couple days as impulses advect through the flow. Things gradually begin to warm up mid week on as the western CONUS ridge shifts east, although the pattern remains unsettled with near daily chances for showers and a few storms continuing, with activity being more scattered to isolated as the week progresses.
- Rain and cooler temperatures move back in for the mid week period. The seemingly permanent trough-ridge-trough long wave upper level pattern across North America has the added feature of a smaller scale circulation over the Great Lakes that shears eastward today and tonight. Isolated coverage in the going forecast looks good as temperatures claw into the lower and mid 60s. High pressure gains a more convincing foothold tonight and brings the best day of the holiday weekend for Memorial Day. This maintains a solid NE wind direction that keeps a cumulus prone air mass over Lower Mi, although with a low level thermal trough more able to modify warmer.
High temperatures this afternoon will once again climb into the low to mid 90s across most of the area with some isolated areas west of I-45 rising into the upper 90s.
Changes made this evening were two-fold: first, shaved a couple degrees off of low temperatures throughout the CWA east of the Missouri River valley (20-60% chance that said area will fall below 40 degrees tonight) closer to a 38 to 42F degree range instead of the warmer values inherited. An upper level trough over the Great Basin on Sunday may spread additional showers and thunderstorms into western South Dakota. Upper flow will feature a broad mid-lvl trough from the Great Lakes and Upper Midwest stretching back west into the Northern Plains. Through the Tue-Wed timeframe, this feature will cut off and form a close upper low across parts of the Dakotas and Minnesota.
Additional thunderstorms are developing north of the boundary across northeastern Oklahoma as the low level jet strengthens and increases lift across that region.
A good portion of the CWA is seeing mostly clear skies early this morning, with the low cloud deck confined to the far southwest CWA.
Updated at 1207 AM CDT Sun May 25 2025 - Thunderstorm chances continue through the holiday weekend with a chance of severe storms each day - Heavy rainfall and flooding may occur especially with a cold front Sunday into Monday - Cooler temperatures are possible behind a front early this week. Expect this activity to continue/increase through the night as a 700mb wave moves through and the low level jet develops, then shift off eastward toward morning. The low level jet may aid in some of this westward development over central Oklahoma. Convection is expected to continue overnight into Monday morning as the upper low approaches.
Model soundings show there is some elevated instability, but the LFC levels are up above 6-7k ft, which is around or perhaps slightly above where the low level ascent extends to, so even isolated rain may be a bit generous.
Discussion: In the upper levels, this period starts with a trough over the Northeast and Great Lakes. By Sunday, flow becomes more zonal with a ridge building into the Midwest. By Monday, a ridge builds into the Ohio River Valley and the Southeast. At the surface, high pressure over Canada is extending down into the Ohio Valley.
- Cooler temperatures begin Monday and continue through the remainder of the week. After retreating northward tonight, the cold front will make another appearance into the forecast area Sunday afternoon and will become the focus for thunderstorm development. Rich low level moisture to the east of the dryline and wrapping northward behind the cold front will result in very healthy instability and a noted increase in the severe risk over today. Temperatures across the northern zones should held a bit in check behind the cold front, but in general will again prefer the warmer NBM over MOS guidance for highs Sunday afternoon.
High temps in the lower 60s to mid 70s (coolest along MT/DK border).
The upper level low currently over us begins to progress eastward on Sunday, allowing for some warming inland, though highs will remain a few degrees below normal in most areas. A transient ridge will bring warmer conditions and weaker winds Monday.
Mid level ridging is forecast to build over the Florida Peninsula as upper level winds decrease further. Outside of storms, heat index values will nudge higher into the low-mid 100s, especially on Monday. Through mid week, ridging holds over central Florida with light southerly flow backing to the southeast each afternoon (behind the sea breeze). Daytime temps in the low 90s combined with high humidity will lead to heat indices approaching 100-105 degrees during peak heating hours.
1145 PM MDT Sat May 24 2025 - Dense Fog Advisory for a large portion of the lower elevations until late Sunday morning.
119 AM EDT Sun May 25 2025 - A few sprinkles with perhaps a couple isolated showers over The Thumb in store for Sunday with gradual warming, into the low 60s.
416 AM EDT Sun May 25 2025 High pressure over the Great Lakes and Mid Atlantic states will provide another day of dry weather.
713 AM EDT Sun May 25 2025 A low pressure system is currently located in New Brunswick and is expected to gradually weaken and move east across the Maritimes today. Low pressure exits the Maritimes Monday.
738 AM EDT Sun May 25 2025 High pressure building over the Great Lakes and into the Northeast States will bring dry weather with a moderating trend into Memorial Day.
By late this week, the larger scale long wave trough digs further south and may bring a regime change, in turn decreasing our chances for rain and storms. It is thus reasonable to conclude that rain and storms will prevail, with a weak ridge lingering off to the southeast.
This evening, a weak upper trough is progged to move through the region, reinforcing the NW onshore flow pattern and slightly deepening the marine layer.
558 AM CDT Sun May 25 2025 Updated at 555 AM CDT Sun May 25 2025 - Thunderstorm chances continue through the holiday weekend with a chance of severe storms each day - Heavy rainfall and flooding may occur especially with a cold front Sunday into Monday - Cooler temperatures are possible behind a front early this week. Expect this activity to continue/increase through the night as a 700mb wave moves through and the low level jet develops, then shift off eastward toward morning. The low level jet may aid in some of this westward development over central Oklahoma. Convection is expected to continue overnight into Monday morning as the upper low approaches.
530 AM MDT Sun May 25 2025 -Cloudy and cool through Memorial Day with chances for showers in areas -Semi-unsettled weather continues the rest of the week with daily chances for showers and a few storms -Warming for the second half of the week Mean troughing can be expected locally through much of the period as a weak Rex blocking pattern persists. Stalled frontal boundary coupled with a slow moving upper trough will support chances showers the next couple days as impulses advect through the flow. Things gradually begin to warm up mid week on as the western CONUS ridge shifts east, although the pattern remains unsettled with near daily chances for showers and a few storms continuing, with activity being more scattered to isolated as the week progresses.
509 AM EDT Sun May 25 2025 A low pressure system is currently located in New Brunswick and is expected to gradually weaken and move east across the Maritimes today. Low pressure exits the Maritimes Monday.
A weak front will produce cooler temperatures and a round of showers late today through Monday.
552 AM CDT Sun May 25 2025 (Today through Monday) - Moderate to Extreme Risk of Heat-Related Impacts (level 2-4 out of 4) today and Monday Hot and mostly dry conditions will continue through Memorial Day as high pressure remains in place.
- Mostly dry and warmer today with a mix of sun and clouds; low rain chances limited to south central South Dakota into the Missouri River Valley.
628 AM CDT Sun May 25 2025 (Today through Monday) An upper-level ridge over the Southern Plains looks to shift further east today as an upper-level trough traverses the Intermountain West. The trough looks to continue into the Central Plains through the end of the period. Ahead of the trough, low-level pressure gradients are expected to tighten, supporting the development of a 30-40 kt 850mb LLJ along the Texas Coast.
This morning's showers and thunderstorms effectively shunted the northward extend convective potential as the warmer air aloft makes a weak attempt to lift north. This looks to have a better influence on the northward advancement of the mid-level warm air mass, lifting the warm front as far north as northwestern MO between Monday morning and early afternoon. The region finally gets a break heading into the midweek period as the broad mid-level ridge over the northern Plains begins to shift eastward into the Great Lakes Region. Beyond midweek becomes a little less clear as an upper level low elongates over the Upper Midwest into the northern Plains and sort of stagnates. Additionally, a large scale synoptic shift begins as the persistent ridge over the southeastern U.
(Today through Monday) An upper-level ridge over the Southern Plains looks to shift further east today as an upper-level trough traverses the Intermountain West. The trough looks to continue into the Central Plains through the end of the period. Ahead of the trough, low-level pressure gradients are expected to tighten, supporting the development of a 30-40 kt 850mb LLJ along the Texas Coast.
- Rain and cooler temperatures move back in for the mid week period. Could also see a lake moisture release tonight supporting low VFR ceiling before high pressure influence lends deeper clearing heading into Memorial Day. The seemingly permanent trough-ridge-trough long wave upper level pattern across North America has the added feature of a smaller scale circulation over the Great Lakes that shears eastward today and tonight. Isolated coverage in the going forecast looks good as temperatures claw into the lower and mid 60s. High pressure gains a more convincing foothold tonight and brings the best day of the holiday weekend for Memorial Day. This maintains a solid NE wind direction that keeps a cumulus prone air mass over Lower Mi, although with a low level thermal trough more able to modify warmer.
958 AM CDT Sun May 25 2025 - Mostly dry and warmer today with a mix of sun and clouds.
1158 AM CDT Sun May 25 2025 Updated at 1153 AM CDT Sun May 25 2025 - Thunderstorm chances continue through the holiday weekend with a chance of severe storms each day - Heavy rainfall and flooding may occur especially with a cold front Sunday into Monday - Cooler temperatures are possible behind a front early this week. Expect this activity to continue/increase through the night as a 700mb wave moves through and the low level jet develops, then shift off eastward toward morning. The low level jet may aid in some of this westward development over central Oklahoma. Convection is expected to continue overnight into Monday morning as the upper low approaches.
On Monday, upper level trough moves through the area, bringing another round of showers/thunderstorms to many locations. Steep lapse rates and moderate instability (CAPE 1-2k J/KG) develop over the mountains and along I-25 by afternoon, with most models breaking out rather widespread convection over the higher terrain around noon, then taking a broken line of storms through the I-25 corridor onto the plains 2-4 pm.
- Rain and cooler temperatures move back in for the mid week period. This flow regime has continued to support the daytime cumulus develop and relatively cooler temperatures, though temperatures continue to moderate slightly upward a couple degrees above 0C at 850 mb. Afternoon highs in the 60s will drop down into the low to mid 40s tonight.
139 PM EDT Sun May 25 2025 High pressure building over the Great Lakes and into the Northeast will bring dry weather for Memorial Day.
326 PM EDT Sun May 25 2025 High pressure over the area through Monday. A series of areas of low pressure move through mid week through the weekend. Upper level low moving into southern Ontario this afternoon while convection moving into the mid Mississippi Valley is slinging cirrus into the southern zones. At the surface, high pressure continues to build into the southern Great Lakes, and as mentioned before, the pattern continues to limit warming of the temperatures towards normal values with upper 50s to mid 60s area wide. Upper trough and trailing axis will finally make an exit Monday, replaced by weak ridging aloft late Monday into Monday night.