Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
(This afternoon through Wednesday) A low pressure system will continue to move to the east across the TN Valley this afternoon through tonight. Skies have been partly cloudy in the southern half of the state, with temperatures much warmer and highs anticipated in the low to mid 80s. Overnight tonight, as flow shifts to out of the west, drier and cooler air will begin to advect into the state with activity decreasing from west to east shortly before midnight. As the low pressure continues it's eastward trek, wraparound moisture and forcing could cause isolated weak thunderstorms in the far northeastern counties Wednesday afternoon during the day's peak heating.
A ridge of high pressure will provide dry and warmer conditions for the region through Wednesday.
0-6km shear is still on the low-ish side on most of the new models; between 25-30 kts, but that's still enough for thunderstorms to work with.
An upper low near Southern California will keep limited moisture and instability over our region leading to isolated light showers or sprinkles along with a few thunderstorms through Wednesday.
1221 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024 (Today through Wednesday) An upper level trough is moving across TX this morning and the flow is becoming west-northwesterly. At the surface, high pressure is moving over the region and winds are light and variable. A cooler, drier airmass has moved over our CWA. Temperatures and dewpoints are five to 15 degrees cooler than 24 hours ago. High pressure will move across our CWA today with quiet weather expected. Temperatures will be warmer again with lows about five degrees warmer than this morning.
A large upper low continues to churn over central Missouri at this hour. The latest surface analysis places a 1004mb low over the Missouri Bootheel with an attendant warm front extending southeast into Middle Tennessee with a cold front strewn nearly along the I-40 corridor. A small warm sector, ahead of the cold front will be an area where a few strong storms could form this afternoon. A few wraparound showers will persist through the overnight hours as the main upper level low slowly moves into Middle Tennessee.
1258 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024 (Today and tonight) Sunny skies are on tap for most of the day today as a weak mid-level ridge is currently over Texas. The mid-level ridge should provide a fairly stout cap to suppress widespread convection. Forecast soundings show an inverted V in the lowest levels, so any storms will likely be high-based, which could produce gusty winds and very little rainfall. Warm southerly flow should continue overnight with low temperatures only falling to the upper 60s, which is about ten degrees warmer than last night.
210 PM EDT Tue May 14 2024 Two areas of low pressure along with a slow moving front drifting southeast from the Lower Great Lakes will bring periods of showers today through Wednesday.
349 PM EDT Tue May 14 2024 Low pressure developing along a front to the north Wednesday will maintain high chances for showers and thunderstorms.
Scattered showers will continue overnight as an upper level low pressure system moves across the area.
The upper wave will stall out Wednesday morning as it becomes more of a closed low, which will gradually shift to the east into Wednesday night.
CIMSS satellite-derived vorticity analysis places a potent mid-level ridge extending from the Gulf eastward to the Bahamas.
Generally quiet and tranquil weather conditions can be expected across South Texas tonight through Wednesday under weak ridging aloft. At the surface, high pressure will continue to progress eastward through the period leading to a gradual return to a southeasterly flow overnight.
324 PM EDT Tue May 14 2024 - High pressure brings mainly dry weather and near normal temperatures for Wednesday.
947 AM MDT Tue May 14 2024 Upper trough was moving into the area today with two main vorticity maximums. A cold front was progressing SE through the central part of the forecast area per surface observations and showers were developing along and behind it. However any storms will produce gusty winds given steep lapse rates and small hail is not out of the question with freezing levels in the 4000-6000 ft range over western and central areas.
Troughing associated with a closed low centered over East Central Missouri, will continue to push east through the region tonight. As this happens, a weak cold front will likewise continue to slowly shift east through the CWA this evening. In the wake of the front, high pressure and ridging aloft will build east into the region. Skies will steadily clear from west to east this evening and overnight, with lows falling into the low and middle 60s. The will provide a good storm environment ahead of impending showers and storms; favorable low- level moisture, increasing instability and dewpoints in the low- mid 70s.
823 PM EDT Tue May 14 2024 -An upper low traversing the region will support scattered rain and a stray thunderstorm or two through Wednesday.
651 PM EDT Tue May 14 2024 Two areas of low pressure along with a slow moving front drifting southeast from the Lower Great Lakes will bring periods of showers today through Wednesday.
624 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024 - Areas of showers and thunderstorms tonight and Wednesday as low pressure moves through the region.
Calmer, dry, and warmer weather expected Wednesday as high pressure builds over the region.
1003 PM EDT Tue May 14 2024 Eastward exiting low pressure will continue to provide some shower and thunderstorm activity on Wednesday, generally southeast of I-71.
626 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024 - Thunderstorms developing over the High Plains this afternoon will move east across the forecast area by late this afternoon/this evening.
Short Term Update - The Atlantic high will nudge a bit further out to sea through the overnight period as troughing over the southeast moves nearer the Atlantic Coast. While the lower level ridge will be under pressure by troughing to the north, it will continue to remain in control of our area. An Atlantic high will maintain a ridge to the southwest across Cuba through the overnight.
622 PM MDT Tue May 14 2024 Short wave trough axis is pushing through our CWA at this time. Leading edge of trough is signified by line of thunderstorms extending from near Roundup to Pryors at this time. Mesoanalysis depicted trough over the region with two main vorticity maximums circulating through it. A warm front develops over the central zones late in the day and moves into the E for Wed.
708 PM EDT Tue May 14 2024 - High pressure brings mainly dry weather and near normal temperatures for Wednesday.
(Rest of tonight) Showers and storms will continue to end from west to east as the upper trough axis nears the area. Overnight lows will range from the upper 50s in the higher terrain to lower 60s elsewhere.
457 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024 (This evening through Wednesday Night) A welcome reprieve from rain will continue through this short-term period as an upper-level trough slowly ejects eastward from the Mid-MS Valley. Likewise, look for wind speeds to drop off rapidly as well as high pressure builds firmly into the region. High pressure will maintain dry and increasingly warmer conditions on Wednesday with winds eventually trending back S/SW throughout the day. As light southerly flow persists on Wednesday night, overnight temperatures will run several degrees warmer compared to tonight with cloud cover also returning across our western half.
1000 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024 Convection continues to gradually dissipate in coverage around the southern periphery of an upper low over southeast MO. This low was drifting slowly to the east/southwest and should end up along the KY/TN border north of Nashville by sunrise. Scattered showers will continue overnight as an upper level low pressure system moves across the area.
707 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024 *Precipitation chances today and tonight *Strong winds this evening into the overnight *Cooler through the first part of the weekend *Another chance for rain/snow Thu. As for snowfall potential, did decrease precipitation chances across the northern Sandhills after midnight across the northwest Sandhills, which looks to confine most of the precipitation across the northwest Sandhills to rain as temperatures will generally main above freezing during the best chance for precipitation, however a brief period of a rain/snow mix can't be ruled out, but do not expect any snowfall accumulations. Cooler temperatures tonight and Thursday, weak CAA behind the frontal boundary will bring in lows tonight in the upper 20s to mid 30s and keep highs on Thursday generally in the upper 40s to low 50s.
741 PM EDT Wed Apr 17 2024 Rain showers are expected through most of Thursday, before high pressure briefly moves in for Thursday night.
As such, we may see temperatures a degree or two warmer on Thursday than today, with more widespread low to mid 80s possible than today.
In general, cloud cover is expected to decrease through the afternoon, helping to mix the lowest levels and break the morning cap.
Luckily this fracas won't amount to much but some light snow over the highest terrain of the northern and central mountains. This is pushing a weak cold front across our northern CWA which will settle over the high plateaus and be a limited focus for light over-running precipitation into our northeast CWA mountains overnight into tomorrow. Winds are likely to remain but this should help push warmer air back into the CWA to end out the week.
600 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024 Thunderstorms will return to the Midsouth on Thursday afternoon and evening, ahead of a deep low pressure system lifting into the mid-Mississippi River Valley.
At the surface, generally high pressure will continue through Thursday.
Dewpoints ahead of the dryline are in the mid and upper 60s, with temperatures in the mid and upper 80s, with a few readings in the lower 90s. For tomorrow, a surface cold front will enter the Big Country around noon.
609 PM EDT Wed Apr 17 2024 Rain showers are expected through most of Thursday, before high pressure briefly moves in for Thursday night.
Stacked ridging over the region continues to produce subsidence aloft trapping the dry airmass in place over the area. The surface pressure gradient is relaxing as high pressure weakens across the FL Peninsula. By late week, there will be some flattening of the ridge as a large upper level low drifts across northern Ontario and our flow aloft will transition from northwesterly to more of a westerly (zonal) orientation for the upcoming weekend.
641 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024 (This evening through Thursday night) A weak upper level low is currently moving through the Great Lakes this afternoon. Going into tomorrow, a stronger upper level trough will push south out of Canada and into the High Plains to upper Mississippi River Valley.
- A strong cold front overnight will bring strong north wind gusts as high as around 50 mph between 3 and 9 am.
1001 PM EDT Wed Apr 17 2024 A cold front will track across the region tonight with more showers and a few gusty thunderstorms, especially across western New York this evening. High pressure will move into the region Thursday and Thursday night.
Dry spring time weather with cool overnight temperatures and warmer than normal high temperatures will linger through the end of the work week.
- Cold front on Thursday brings with it temperatures 5-15 F cooler than normal for this time of year. Short Term: An occluded low pressure that has been bringing us rain and dreary weather for the last 24 hours will continue to impart some final rain showers and drizzle before it moves off to the northeast. Extended Range: By midday Thursday, a cold front will completely move through the area.
640 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024 - Severe thunderstorms may develop along a cold front late tonight and Thursday morning.
75" of an inch with the highest accumulations expected between the I-90 and Hwy-20 corridors. - Our overall temperatures will continue to gradually decrease into the weekend with overnight temperatures dropping below freezing.
The clearing skies and light winds will allow for cold temperatures Thursday morning as sub-freezing lows are expected in most locations, including the Treasure Valley.
622 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024 (This evening through Thursday) Our stretch of very warm temperatures for the past six days is set to grind to a halt tomorrow following a rather strong cold front arriving in the morning. Meanwhile in the mid and upper levels, a sheared upper trough in westerly flow overhead will give way to zonal flow on Thursday.
Currently - Healthy ridging off the Atlantic Coast arcs west southwestward across Florida and the Gulf of Mexico. Stable conditions are in place with deep layered ridging dominating and a substantial subsidence inversion based below 850 mb. Short Term Update - Deep layered ridging will remain in firm control of Keys weather through the overnight period. A ridge across Florida will maintain moderate to fresh easterly breezes across Keys waters through the overnight period.
(The rest of tonight) A warm night remains expected for eastern Oklahoma and northwest and west central Arkansas, with increasing southerly winds and a corresponding increase in low level moisture ahead of the cold front set to move through tomorrow. (Thursday through Wednesday) Attention will turn to the potential for severe weather across eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas on Thursday as an advancing strong cold front moves through during the afternoon. One inhibiting factor would be how long storms can be maintained ahead of the advancing cold front, but largely zonal flow aloft and shear vectors oriented perpendicular to the boundary would support at least some movement of storms off the boundary and being able to sustain more robust updrafts capable of large hail. Much cooler and breezy conditions will follow the frontal passage Thursday night and will last into the weekend.
615 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024 (Tonight through Thursday night) The biggest story for the short term forecast period will be the above normal temperatures that will affect Deep South Texas and the Lower Rio Grande Valley. A mid-level ridge will continue to influence the region. While some tiny showers and thunderstorms did get going this morning in the Lower Rio Grande Valley, SPC does have the far western parts of Starr and Zapata in a general thunderstorm outlook. However both PoPs and QPF remain very low for going into tomorrow and the mid-level ridge still has some influence over the region that will hinder the development of showers and thunderstorms.
707 PM MDT Wed Apr 17 2024 - Breezy with a cold front and possible showers in the evening.
929 PM EDT Wed Apr 17 2024 Rain showers are expected through most of Thursday, before high pressure briefly moves in for Thursday night.
(Today and tonight) Main story today will continue to be the arrival of the strong cold front this afternoon and evening. Latest model runs from the high res models continue to speed up the front some across the Big Country, with the front arriving along the I-20 corridor before max heating. Thus, have stayed on the cooler side of guidance across the Big Country. Cold front continues south overnight and allows the cooler air mass to filter into the area.
1243 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024 (This evening through Thursday) Our stretch of very warm temperatures for the past six days is set to grind to a halt tomorrow following a rather strong cold front arriving in the morning. Meanwhile in the mid and upper levels, a sheared upper trough in westerly flow overhead will give way to zonal flow on Thursday.
- Windy and turning much cooler during Thursday with stretch of cooler (below climo) weather through the weekend. Low level moisture advection on a return southerly flow through the evening across south central Kansas and the Flint Hills looks to result in plume of moderate instability as the developmental warm front noses northward across the area. Better chances/coverage of strong to severe convection should shift primarily into northeast Kansas after midnight as a warmer EML advects across much of the area. A strong cold front will plunge southward across the area late tonight through Thursday morning, as a more significant upper trof progresses eastward across the northern Plains and Upper Midwest.
High pressure will build in by the weekend, bringing a noticeable warming trend.
117 AM EDT Thu Apr 18 2024 - Dry tonight and cooler.
350 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024 - Ongoing rain and wintry precipitation ends from west to east this morning, with dry and cooler conditions this afternoon.
329 AM EDT Thu Apr 18 2024 Weak high pressure will move east across the middle Ohio Valley today, resulting in dry weather. For tonight, low pressure will ride northeast along an eastward advancing cold front, bringing renewed chances for showers and thunderstorms.
As the previous shift mentioned, anticipating any fog development in the lower elevations and valleys and more of a stratus deck for higher elevations (like NE AL and Monte Sano).
235 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024 - Strong north winds developing behind a cold front are expected to produce gusts upward of 50-55 mph through mid-morning.
A large area of high pressure over Canada will maintain a cooler-than-average airmass across the region through the end of the week. This will bring temperatures slightly below freezing starting tonight, which could lead to some patchy frost concerns.
125 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024 Have updated the near term forecast to expand fog potential and include a limited dense fog threat in the hazard graphics for early Thursday morning over the lower Pine Belt region. /EC/ Tonight and Thursday: Continued warmer than normal through Thursday. Surface analysis also showed a ridge along the Gulf coast states from the east. This ridge will remain in place through Thursday and help a warm moist airmass spread back across the whole CWA. This moist airmass will destabilize with daytime heating Thursday and there will be the development of isolated to scatted showers and thunderstorms but the potential for any severe storms looks to hold off until Thursday evening ahead of a cold front that will be approaching our western zones.
(Today and tonight) Main focus for today is on a surface cold front which as of 2 am was located along a line from near Trinidad, CO to Garden City, KS. This front will bring much cooler temperatures to the area as well as breezy northerly winds.
- Cooler temperatures move in for the weekend. A warm front draped along the I-70 corridor combined with an intensifying low level jet sets the foundation for storms chances throughout the night. Simultaneously a cold front sags southeastward from NE bringing its own area of convection. These post cold frontal storms are not expected to be severe; however, it is possible that a strong storm or two could have small hail and damaging winds. Once we get beyond this wave of storms, relatively cooler air works its way in for the weekend. High pressure dominates overhead keeping skies clear.
Temps overnight will remain on the cooler side of normal with most locations in the 20s, teens in the high country. Tomorrow looks dry although it'll remain on the cooler side of average as high pressure slowly starts to take control of the weather once again. This keeps the precipitation light with few locations even reaching the chance threshold (25%) and thus does allow more sunshine and warmer temperatures, but the afternoon highs will be slow to warm.
340 AM EDT Thu Apr 18 2024 - Dry today with showers moving in late this evening along a cold front.
Below freezing lows likely (>75%) this weekend. The low pressure that impacted the state continues to lift to the northeast this afternoon. Morning upper air analysis showed a wave in the High Plains as well as an area of low pressure over the Texas panhandle. This low will lift northeastward overnight and bring with it moisture from the Gulf. The base of the trough with an intensifying midlevel jet will center over the area tonight with some diffluence on the exiting half. Beyond Thursday, broad troughing will deepen over the region and keep a colder airmass overhead, keeping temperatures in the 50s for the rest of the week. Lows will be in the low 30s and even 20s in spots in the weekend which will warrant frost/freeze headlines.
That means morning lows around freezing in the high country.
Wet conditions will continue through the weekend before high pressure slides in.
106 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024 - Severe thunderstorms may develop along a cold front late tonight and Thursday morning.
Currently, low pressure was centered over southeast Colorado. The low will track east on Thursday and drag a cold front into western Arkansas by Thursday night. As the cold front moves into the region Thursday night, more thunderstorms are expected. ARS Thunderstorms will return to the Midsouth on Thursday afternoon and evening, ahead of a deep low pressure system lifting into the mid-Mississippi River Valley.
1212 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024 (This evening through Thursday night) A weak upper level low is currently moving through the Great Lakes this afternoon. Going into tomorrow, a stronger upper level trough will push south out of Canada and into the High Plains to upper Mississippi River Valley.
An upper level low over the Canadian mid-west has a trough extending as far west as eastern Washington State today. This trough will persist through today and keep cool air aloft enabling unstable, showery conditions again this afternoon.
1103 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024 - A strong cold front overnight will bring strong north wind gusts as high as around 50 mph between 3 and 9 am.
At this point, expect the low clouds to win out over fog the rest of the morning, but will keep a close eye on it. For today, the low clouds will eventually lift and scatter by late morning or midday. Temperatures should warm rather quickly due to heating and warm advection, with highs in the lower to middle 80s as minor upper ridging translates east across the region. This wave is displaced from the wave moving through the lower MO and upper MS valleys.
- Cooler overnight temperatures may lead to frost/freeze concerns through this weekend. This cloud cover combined with strong cold air advection on the backside of this system has kept temperatures in the 40s and low 50s area wide today, with breezy northwest winds making it feel even cooler.
The flow aloft is being driven by a modestly amplified pattern thanks to a mid/upper ridge centered over the W Gulf of Mexico and a deep layer trough over western CONUS. Temperatures are generally in the low/mid 80s with dew points averaging around 70F. Therefore, temperatures are forecast to be a few degrees warmer tomorrow with inland highs in the mid/upper 80s (around 80 at the coast). With dew points around 70F, heat index values are expected to be in the low 90s.
Right now, high temperatures in the low 80s along the Ohio River and highs in the mid 70s across central Ohio.
The 20Z surface observations show a diffuse dryline oriented from near Childress to Cheyenne to Woodward with the warm front near the KS/OK state line. A strong cold front then arrives in northwest Oklahoma tomorrow morning around dawn and is prog'd to reach central Oklahoma around mid- to late-morning. Besides the cooler temperatures behind the front, breezy north winds will be observed with gusts of 30 to 40 mph possible.
320 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024 - High temperatures will again reach the lower to middle 80s this afternoon.
1246 AM EDT Thu Apr 18 2024 Showers and thunderstorms possible overnight with a weak cold front.
1248 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024 (Tonight through Thursday night) The biggest story for the short term forecast period will be the above normal temperatures that will affect Deep South Texas and the Lower Rio Grande Valley. A mid-level ridge will continue to influence the region. While some tiny showers and thunderstorms did get going this morning in the Lower Rio Grande Valley, SPC does have the far western parts of Starr and Zapata in a general thunderstorm outlook. However both PoPs and QPF remain very low for going into tomorrow and the mid-level ridge still has some influence over the region that will hinder the development of showers and thunderstorms.