Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Lobes of vorticity rotating around upper level low pressure evident on water vapor imagery across northern Michigan will continue to produce scattered to numerous showers into this evening. Highs Sunday in the low and mid 70s. Pattern Synopsis and Forecast: Beautiful summer weather conditions return this week as midlevel ridging builds across the Central U. Sunny skies with average temperatures can be expected for the next several days: Current midlevel troughing digging through the Upper Great Lakes region will be replaced by longwave upstream ridging, occupying the the central U. Upper level low pressure will continue to bring scattered showers and chances of thunderstorms into Sunday morning.
There looks to be a weak back door front the moves into the northeast part of the forecast area tomorrow, but does not appear to bring any significantly cooler air.
An upper ridge sets up over the region this weekend and into the week ahead.
1222 PM CDT Sat Aug 17 2024 (Rest of today through Sunday) A weak upper trough has come through Middle Tennessee already this morning, and there's another one positioned to our immediate west that will come through later on. Temperatures tomorrow will be several degrees cooler than today owing the air mass change coming with the fropa.
Sunday Night Through Saturday With a stubborn upper trough finally moving off to the east Sunday evening a period of tranquil weather will ensue for much of the upcoming week. Long range ensembles are in good agreement with a robust upper ridge dominating the western Great Lakes region through the end of the week.
(Rest of today through Sunday) A weak upper trough has come through Middle Tennessee already this morning, and there's another one positioned to our immediate west that will come through later on. Temperatures tomorrow will be several degrees cooler than today owing the air mass change coming with the fropa.
High pressure remains over the region today, bringing generally sunny skies, light winds and warm temperatures to the region. In addition, with high pressure generally off to the east and low pressure to our west, a north east to easterly gradient will develop tonight.
144 PM EDT Sat Aug 17 2024 A cold front will approach the area and push east across the area on Sunday, bringing scattered showers and thunderstorms both afternoons.
Mostly clear to partly cloudy skies tonight with lows in the mid to upper 70s inland and in the low 80s over areas along and near the coasts. On Sunday, the persistent high pressure situated over Texas will unfortunately continue to result in tranquil and hot conditions across Southeast Texas. The highs in the afternoon will likely be in the upper 90s to around 100 deg F with heat indices of up to 114 deg F.
As a low pressure system pushes into the northeastern United States, a 500mb ridge of high pressure will move east as well. This ridge will build into the northern High Plains into mid week, before flattening ever so slightly.
Current IR depicts the ridge of higher heights extending in from the south to southeast as monsoonal moisture starts to pump more northeastward across the Rocky Mountain west. Going forward, monsoonal moisture weakens throughout the weak, although a continued active pattern with the upper level low ongoing across the Pacific northwest. This will continue to weaken the upper level high with increasing divergence aloft as it moves more east into the southeastern portions of the US.
This active pattern is due to high pressure centralized over New Mexico and a strong trough sitting off the Pacific Northwest Coast. The overall synoptic pattern will remain similar to today (Saturday), with high pressure centered over New Mexico and a trough axis along the Pacific Northwest Coast.
(This evening through Sunday) The upper ridge continues to spin over northeast New Mexico this afternoon and is expected to meander east over West Texas by tomorrow. Any storms that develop should weaken or diminish later this evening after sunset with a lack of forcing under the dome of high pressure.
/29 (Now through Sunday night) An upper trof steadily amplifies over the eastern states through the period which maintains a northwesterly steering flow for convection over the forecast area.
Some existing cloud cover across NE Missouri, driven by the slowly exiting Great Lakes upper low, and a few areas of shallow fair weather cu southward where better low level moisture resides. The pattern will struggle to see much substantial movement, aside from ridging edging eastward into the central CONUS.
155 PM EDT Sat Aug 17 2024 High pressure remains over the region this afternoon, with drier albeit warm conditions in place. Troughing aloft then digs south over the region for the start of the week while a weak surface boundary moves into north Florida.
However, confidence is not high in this at this time due to winds not being calm enough and the low potential for lingering cloud cover.
217 PM EDT Sat Aug 17 2024 Widely scattered showers and storms will occur this afternoon and evening ahead of a cold front.
More hot and humid weather is expected across the region this afternoon as highs reach the low to mid 90s. A mainly dry cold front will move through the region on Sunday with a low chance of rain.
The subtropical ridge responsible for the heat will not be going away anytime soon, and as such temperatures will rise into the 100-105 degree range across the northeastern Permian Basin and 105-115 across areas around the Rio Grande. Overnight lows tonight and again Sunday night will fall into the 60s over the higher terrain to around 80 along the Rio Grande.
Morning lows across the Valley were in the low to mid 60s and as cold as the mid 40s over the Sierra. This cooler trend continues into this afternoon with below normal temperatures forecasted for Northern CA. Valley) with highs in the low 90s. Speaking of convection, today there is a 25-40% chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening as an upper level trough swings into the Pacific NW.
The environment will be sufficiently unstable throughout the afternoon and there could be some showers and general thunderstorms that develop in the afternoon, but anything more robust will hold off until the Low Level Jet kicks in after sunset, generally 02z or later.
An upper ridge remained centered over the southern high plains per the 19Z water vapor imagery. The ridge axis extended north over the northern plains and a closed upper low was noted off the coast of OR. Surface obs showed weak high pressure ridging into northeast KS from the north. Main challenge with the forecast is timing the weak disturbances rounding the upper ridge.
No significant changes are anticipated in today's forecast as the region remains positioned between an upper- level low to the west and an upper-level ridge over the Four Corners area.
Amplifying upper-level ridging over the Rockies to Northern Plains and reinforced troughing over the Northeast will favor northerly winds over Michigan Mon-Tue, which will provide us with cooler-than-normal temperatures and less humidity.
(Tonight through Sunday night) Key Message: - Heat Advisory in effect today and tomorrow with a Moderate to Major risk of heat related impacts This strong mid-level high remains over the Southern Plains with the associated ridge extending across the central CONUS.
229 PM EDT Sat Aug 17 2024 Showers and storms are expected in advance of an area of low pressure this afternoon and overnight, and again on Sunday in the the wake of cold frontal passage. The associated cold front sweeps through Sunday morning with some additional 'cool' (still upper 70s/lower 80s for highers) instability showers and thunderstorms possible in its wake.
pdf No changes expected for the rest of this afternoon as low level ridging currently over the area will slowly shift westward late today with weak northeasterly winds aloft turning more to the NW by late afternoon and allowing for some diurnal heating over far NW SE GA ahead of a weak trough/boundary to induce some isolated T'storms near the Ocmulgee river, but dry weather and mostly sunny conditions will prevail elsewhere. Tonight, a few higher level clouds will drift across portions of SE GA from any fading convection across South central GA steering from the NW as the low level ridge moves west with otherwise clear skies for the rest of the area. Lows will be near normal inland in the low 70s with warmer lows in the mid to upper 70s at the coast.
Heat advisory in the Big Country/Eastern Heartland will expand Upper ridging continues to expand, with temperatures slowly increasing each day. (Sunday night through next Saturday) Very hot and dry conditions will continue through the next work week due to a strong upper level ridge. An upper level ridge will remain entrenched over our region through the next work week, resulting in continued hot and dry conditions.
Looking at current satellite imagery, there continues to be a deep upper level low centered just off the coast of Oregon. Over northern Utah, there is a trough with ample moisture moving northeast into our area. Tonight into tomorrow, models show us in the same pattern with an upper level low off the Oregon coast.
(The rest of tonight) Mostly clear skies and calm conditions are noted areawide this evening as subtle surface ridging resides over the region.
HREF ensembles suggest initiation over the higher terrain of eastern Pima, Santa Cruz and western Cochise counties in the early afternoon with solid support for outflow initiated valley storms by mid to late afternoon. For the coming week, high pressure will initially nudge back overhead into a blocking position.
Mostly cloudy skies expected to remain in place overnight however in moist cyclonic low level flow on the back side of the low situated over Lake Huron. Amplifying upper-level ridging over the Rockies to Northern Plains and reinforced troughing over the Northeast will favor northerly winds over Michigan Mon-Tue, which will provide us with cooler-than-normal temperatures and less humidity.
638 PM CDT Sat Aug 17 2024 A cold front will move into the Mid-South late tonight with some showers and thunderstorms possible over portions of northwest Tennessee.
617 PM CDT Sat Aug 17 2024 (This evening through Sunday) The upper ridge continues to spin over northeast New Mexico this afternoon and is expected to meander east over West Texas by tomorrow. Any storms that develop should weaken or diminish later this evening after sunset with a lack of forcing under the dome of high pressure.
At this time, the highest confidence for impact will be to KEKS and KWYS, however a stray shower or thunderstorm cannot be ruled out for other terminals in the area.
605 PM EDT Sat Aug 17 2024 A cold front will approach the area and push east across the area on Sunday, bringing scattered showers and thunderstorms both afternoons.
626 PM CDT Sat Aug 17 2024 (Tonight through Sunday night) The upper air analysis across the country this afternoon shows a trough-ridge-trough pattern. Upper low pressure systems over the Great Lakes and off the Pacific NW, with a strong upper ridge centered near the NM/CO border. The east coast trough will deepen, which may affect our weather in the extended periods. In the short term the upper ridge may move a bit more into the TX panhandle and will keep our temperatures hot with zero rain chances. The high clouds may trim a few degrees off the high temps on Sunday but not confident enough right now to change anything from guidance.
Quiet weather continues this evening as a dry, high pressure airmass remains in control.
Lobes of vorticity rotating around upper level low pressure evident on water vapor imagery across northern Michigan will continue to produce scattered to numerous showers into this evening. Highs Sunday in the low and mid 70s. Pattern Synopsis and Forecast: Beautiful summer weather conditions return this week as midlevel ridging builds across the Central U. Sunny skies with average temperatures can be expected for the next several days: Current midlevel troughing digging through the Upper Great Lakes region will be replaced by longwave upstream ridging, occupying the the central U.
552 PM CDT Sat Aug 17 2024 (This evening through Sunday night) High pressure will continue to build over the Panhandles for the rest of the weekend. The high will continue to strengthen and temperatures will remain on the hot side, with widespread 100's expected tomorrow. Tomorrow will be similar but most areas should have almost no chance for storms as the high will be very well centered over the Panhandles.
630 PM CDT Sat Aug 17 2024 (Tonight through Sunday night) Upper-level ridging along the Rocky Mountains will continue to build through the period, generally supporting broad subsidence and relatively dry mid-level flow across the region. At the surface, high pressure is expected to remain in control across the Gulf of Mexico, with a weak pressure gradient across Deep South Texas.
The low dew points have dropped cape values down below 1000 J/kg, thus no storms and really no clouds. But, a band of much higher dew points and cape values was upstream ahead of the cold front. (Rest of today through Sunday) A weak upper trough has come through Middle Tennessee already this morning, and there's another one positioned to our immediate west that will come through later on. Temperatures tomorrow will be several degrees cooler than today owing the air mass change coming with the fropa.
942 PM EDT Sat Aug 17 2024 A cold front will approach the area and push east across the area on Sunday, bringing scattered showers and thunderstorms both afternoons.
Overnight mins cooler a second straight night with values forecast near 70F to L70s across the interior and M70s for the immediate coast and barrier islands.
CMA A cold front will move into the Mid-South late tonight with some showers and thunderstorms possible over portions of northwest Tennessee.
602 PM CDT Sat Aug 17 2024 (Tonight through Sunday night) Key Message: - Heat Advisory in effect today and tomorrow with a Moderate to Major risk of heat related impacts This strong mid-level high remains over the Southern Plains with the associated ridge extending across the central CONUS.
An upper-level composite analysis this evening indicates that the Florida Keys are in a very nondescript synoptic-scale environment, with the nearest deep layer mean anticyclone centered over the Texas Panhandle, Hurricane Ernesto over 1000 miles ENE of the Florida Keys, and the trade-wind belt centered well south of the area, in the central/southern Caribbean basin. Although air temperatures near 80F will be likely where it rains and in island interior locations (radiative "cooling"), air temperatures probably will remain in the lower-mid 80s within about 1 km of the water.
728 PM EDT Sat Aug 17 2024 A cold front will approach the area and push east across the area on Sunday, bringing scattered showers and thunderstorms both afternoons.
1230 AM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024 (Tonight through Sunday night) The upper air analysis across the country this afternoon shows a trough-ridge-trough pattern. Upper low pressure systems over the Great Lakes and off the Pacific NW, with a strong upper ridge centered near the NM/CO border. The east coast trough will deepen, which may affect our weather in the extended periods. In the short term the upper ridge may move a bit more into the TX panhandle and will keep our temperatures hot with zero rain chances. The high clouds may trim a few degrees off the high temps on Sunday but not confident enough right now to change anything from guidance.
(Today and tonight) Dangerous, near-record heat is expected this afternoon as the 597 dam mid-level ridge will be centered over Oklahoma and Texas. Veered 925 to 850 mb flow will increase the magnitude of the low- level thermal ridge ahead of a cold front advancing to the southwest across Missouri and Kansas. The highest dew points will be near and east of I-35, where an Excessive Heat Warning is in effect. Given that winds will be relatively light and cloud cover will be limited, the wet bulb globe temperature risk will be in the high to extreme risk category.
205 AM EDT Sun Aug 18 2024 A cold front will approach the area and push east across the area on Sunday, bringing scattered showers and thunderstorms both afternoons.
The upper low, which brought showers to the area yesterday, is now finally moving east far enough that we're seeing dry weather, along with clearing skies. This is allowing for temperatures to drop to the lower to mid 60s this morning. A prolonged stretch of dry, pleasant weather begins today, as high pressure slowly builds into the Midwest from Canada.
/NEW/ /Overnight through Monday/ Mid level ridging will continue to expand across North Texas through Monday keeping things hot and dry. Overnight lows will only drop into the lower 80s. Any convection that develops today will generally track around the periphery of the stronger ridging and should remain well removed from our area.
Upper ridging persists across the Southern Plains and Desert Southwest this morning with a couple of perturbations rounding the ridge. As these features continue around the ridge, sufficient lift and saturation in the mid-levels will support the development of showers and storms later this morning into the afternoon.
Dry and cooler weather is expected for much of the coming week. KEY MESSAGES: - Residual showers with cooler temperatures are likely on Monday, diminishing Monday evening. ------------------------------------------------------------------- The trough will shift east overnight, with the axis crossing Pittsburgh early Monday morning. ------------------------------------------------------------------- Long range ensembles indicate that upper low pressure will slowly meander across the Northeast through much of the week while fairly amplified ridging continues over the Rockies.
315 AM CDT Sun Aug 18 2024 - 30-50% chance for showers and storms west of Springfield tonight - Cool and dry for the upcoming week The Ozarks are sitting in the northwest flow between a high pressure center to the southwest and a low pressure center to the northeast. Otherwise, values will range from the high 80s in the north to around 90 in Springfield to around 100 in the southwest. Highs Monday will sit in the low to mid 80s with lows in the low to mid 60s overnight (high 50s in low-lying areas out east).
Within the ridge axis in central and northern Minnesota and over to eastern South Dakota fog has formed, but farther southeast it has yet to show its hand. Still, with light winds and dewpoints in the lower 60s, it is anticipated that patchy fog will form down to northern Iowa around sunrise, and have maintained it in the ongoing forecast. A large deep-layer ridge is slowly building over the southern High Plains and will gradually shift over toward the Four Corners region over the next few days, then back toward the High Plains and Midwest later this week.
The environment will be sufficiently unstable throughout the afternoon and there could be some showers and general thunderstorms that develop in the afternoon, but anything more robust will hold off until the Low Level Jet kicks in after sunset, generally 02z or later. Upper level ridge builds in across the southwest CONUS, spreading eastward into the High Plains by mid-week.
Broad cyclonic flow associated with a departing upper trough will keep low clouds and sprinkles around through this afternoon before a drier and more subsident airmass works in from the west tonight. Temperatures today are forecast to be a few degrees cooler than what is considered normal for mid- August, with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s while overnight temps cool to around 60 degF. A high-amplitude blocking pattern will result in a stretch of dry and seasonably cool days this week.
349 AM EDT Sun Aug 18 2024 A low pressure system moving through the Great Lakes will bring scattered showers and a few thunderstorms to our area today. High pressure will then build into the region, bringing dry and seasonably cool conditions through mid week. Low pressure will continue to move east across the lower Great Lakes today. A cooler airmass will start to settle into the area today with afternoon highs only in the mid 70s to lower 80s. This will lead to dry conditions and cooler temperatures.
High pressure continues to maintain a grip over SE Texas.
1138 PM CDT Sat Aug 17 2024 (This evening through Sunday night) High pressure will continue to build over the Panhandles for the rest of the weekend. The high will continue to strengthen and temperatures will remain on the hot side, with widespread 100's expected tomorrow. Tomorrow will be similar but most areas should have almost no chance for storms as the high will be very well centered over the Panhandles.
However, a distinct surge in monsoon moisture moved into s-central Idaho this evening, as evidenced by the higher humidities and isolated convection. An upper-level low to the west and an upper- level ridge over the Four Corners area will persist through the short-term period, creating a dry slot over much of the forecast area with southwesterly flow aloft. Temperatures will be cooler, with valley locations reaching the low 90s.
Dry and cooler weather is expected for much of the coming week. Waning instability and exit of the pre-frontal trough have reduced shower/thunderstorm coverage overnight. - Residual showers with cooler temperatures are likely on Monday, diminishing Monday evening. ------------------------------------------------------------------- By Sunday, the upper low/trough will be centered just to our north, allowing for lower convective temps and more widespread thunderstorm development in the afternoon. There is some uncertainty in favored locations due to slight variations in trough positioning that may create subsidence holes, but the overall pattern/environment should support on and off storms through the evening. The trough continues east on Monday, leaving the area under cooler, northwest flow.
Ongoing showers with isolated thunder associated with upper low pressure will shift east and southeast early this morning mainly over/near the Thumb region as this low opens and quickens its move to the east ever so slightly. Any remaining showers shift off to the east this evening into tonight with dry weather then becoming established for the balance of the week as high pressure settles south into the area with time. Temperatures will hold in the lower/mid 70s today and settle back into the upper 60s to lower 70s early in the week before rebounding gradually through the 70s into the mid/late week period.
(Today through Monday night) An upper level high will be centered over the Panhandles today. Highs today should be similar or slightly warmer than yesterday. Thunderstorms are expected to remain northwest of the CWA through tonight as the high deflects the mountain convection more north and around our CWA. On Monday, a cold front is expected to move into the Panhandles. The general consensus is that the Oklahoma Panhandle and the northern Texas Panhandle could be a little cooler on Monday, while the southern Texas Panhandle has highs similar to Sunday's. Also, we may have some thunderstorms try to sneak into the Oklahoma Panhandle as the upper high shifts ever so slightly to the west and a northwest flow tries to bring mountain convection this way.
Heat advisory in the Big Country/Eastern Heartland will expand Upper ridging continues to expand, with temperatures slowly increasing each day.
Sunday should be the last day of the current heat headline streak, as a cold front will move south and approach the state on Sunday.
- High pressure will return and bring a period of dry weather. Otherwise, will have a northwest flow aloft with building heights in the lower to mid levels.
The highest chance for storms will probably be over northeast Kansas and far eastern Kansas. However, if convective outflow ends up arriving earlier and stronger than forecast, this will support cooler temperatures areawide.