Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Otherwise, the forecast should remain in the active side as the area remains in a weakness region between the upper ridges (one in/around the Four Corners and the other near the East Coast). At the surface, weak ridging and light onshore winds to linger. While the highest POPs are going to be over the central and coastal CWA, activity could reach our northern- most counties by late afternoon. As for temperatures, highs for both today and tomorrow will range in the lower and mid 90s.
This feature, along with a broad upper-level trough, will keep showers and thunderstorms scattered throughout today and into the evening. High pressure will start to build in the Gulf of Mexico, with ensemble models showing heights building into the 594 dm range. While this will be a significant ridge, the center will remain offshore. Going into the weekend, the high will slowly move to the east, allowing for moisture to surge inland. Heat index values look to max out in the low triple digits but could reach advisory levels in isolated spots.
Highs will generally range from the low to mid 90s across the area, which is around 5 degrees above normal.
(Today and tonight) Today's weather will be similar to the past few days, with highs ranging from the lower 90s to around 100 degrees. Our southern counties could see increased cloud cover this afternoon as an inverted trough starts to set up to our southwest and moisture increases through the column. This cloud cover will help keep this area a few degrees cooler compared to areas further north.
130 AM EDT Fri Jul 12 2024 (Rest of today through Friday) A transient upper low remains embedded in the synoptic scale pattern. With very light steering flow, storm motion will be slow, with the highest storm chances in areas where sea breeze convergent zones and thunderstorm outflow boundaries interact. To round out the week, remnants of the weak/decoupled upper low will linger over South Florida. Overnight, mild low temperatures will range from the low 70s to around 80 degrees.
Stronger ridging will remain displaced off to the west leaving the Southern Plains beneath a weakness in the mid level height fields. Meanwhile, a fairly pronounced upper level (400-200 mb) trough will remain positioned from the Great Lakes southwest into North Texas through Saturday.
A cluster of strong to severe thunderstorms has been persistent overnight near the nose of the low level jet/mid level trough axis intersection across southeast Kansas and into southwest Missouri. The warm up will continue today as the expanding western CONUS ridge hedges further east.
The forecast is still on track with little change as the high pressure has currently inched up into southwestern Utah and will continue its slow eastward progression over eastern Utah and Western Colorado by Saturday. With the high moving in temperatures will run five to ten degrees above normal for mid July with lower valleys closer to the ten degrees above normal mark and the mountains and higher elevations a bit cooler nearer the five degrees above normal. Look for the temperatures to warm yet another couple degrees to near record highs tomorrow as the high pressure moves into the region. A Heat Advisory is in effect for the lower valleys of eastern Utah and the Grand Valley in Colorado beginning tomorrow at 10 AM and running through 9 PM Saturday.
Otherwise, expect low temperatures to range from the low-50s to low-70s across the majority of northern Arizona's High Country. Anomalously strong high pressure remains positioned over southern NV/UT and northwestern AZ today. The high pressure center begins to slowly drift eastward tonight and Friday, centering closer to the four corners for the upcoming weekend.
Meanwhile, a mid level ridge is being pinched between this feature and a deep trough across the Central Plains. Winds should tend to relax as we go into the overnight with winds generally remain east to southeast as a low level ridge axis remains weakly defined north of the Keys. Mainly light to gentle easterly breezes will prevail across the Florida Keys coastal waters through the rest of the work week, as high pressure remains in place from the Atlantic across the Florida peninsula and into the Gulf of Mexico.
(Today through Saturday) Showers are beginning to develop this morning and will expect additional development as we head through the morning hours as a tropical wave passes south of the region and we remain under an area of troughing between high pressure centers northwest and east of South Texas. Have gone a bit above these, but below the NBM that indicates temps in the lower to mid 90s.
In the upper lvls, the state remains positioned between a stout area of ridging over the Four Corners region of the CONUS and a trof axis over the state that slowly moves eastward over the period away from the the CWA and state. At the sfc, a stout area of high pressure will meander across the state and eventually into the Mid-South region of the CONUS into Saturday.
1202 AM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024 (This evening through Friday) The synoptic pattern has not changed much over the past 24 hours as upper level ridging remains centered over the desert southwest and weak northerly flow aloft continues over West Texas. The upper ridge will shift a bit farther eastward on Friday, with the associated increase in subsidence resulting in a dry day across our area.
As the boundary shifts inland, waves of low pressure will develop along enhancing convergence and convective development. With the cloud cover and high rain chances, not anticipating a Heat Advisory for Saturday, though temps will still reach the low 90s most areas. Southeast winds will become more southerly through today as low pressure off the SC coast shifts slowly inland dragging a nearly stationary front slowly inland along with it.
1221 AM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024 (Tonight) Another calm/quiet evening is underway across the mid TN Valley, as current temps drop mainly into the lower/mid 80s. Otherwise, with an area of weak high pressure in place east of the area, quiet wx conditions will prevail thru tonight.
(Today through Saturday afternoon) Very little changes today as upper ridging remains just to our northwest with a weakness over south Texas. A weakness in the upper ridge will move north from Mexico and into southern portions of the area. Increased moisture and lower heights will lead to slightly cooler temperatures with highs about 3-5 degrees lower than what we will see today.
1144 PM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024 (This evening through Friday night) Upper ridging near Las Vegas, with a weaker ridge over the northern Gulf of Mexico. Troughing near Lake Michigan extended into Arkansas and east Texas. At the surface, the pressure pattern locally was rather weak with potentially a weak trough running east west along the Interstate 10 corridor. The upper pattern is not changing significantly over the next 36 hours, with ridging remaining over the northern and eastern portions of the Gulf of Mexico. Model solutions indicate the troughing should continue to weaken, and the moisture levels over southwest Mississippi will become similar to the remainder of the area by midday Friday.
H500 ridge remains in place across the SW US with a trough extending south toward the state from the Great Lakes, sfc ridging will hold firm locally. Not quite a true NW flow setup as the ridge's influence extends east toward the mid-south.
(Today) Issued at 300 AM AM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024 The airmass that brought slightly cooler/drier air to the area over the last couple of days will begin to retreat today as a ridge in the SW CONUS begins to expand eastward. Temps appear likely to rise into the low/mid 90s during the afternoon for the majority of the area.
Smoke should track east as the upper ridge builds in through the weekend.
125 AM EDT Fri Jul 12 2024 Moisture increases from the east through the night with chances of showers and thunderstorms returning by Friday morning as an area of low pressure moves across the southeastern US. Relatively dry air gave us a beautiful day with highs in the low 90s. It will remain muggy with overnight lows in the low/mid 70s.
Upper level ridge remains over the area with temperatures 10-15 degrees above normal.
Hot and dry conditions should prevail for the majority of the lowlands between these two waves, while daytime heating and moisture seeping in along and near the mountains is expected to support a few afternoon showers and storms. Temperatures will be rather warm this afternoon, with highs expected to reach 70s to mid 80s along the mountains and upper 80s to low 90s in the lowlands. Low for tonight should then range from low to mid 60s in the mountains to mid to upper 60s in the lowlands.
Will be watching weak storms forming across the higher terrain of Colorado this evening. On Friday, a 597 dm anticyclone moves from the Desert Southwest to over the Great Basin to four corners region through the day. A very weak lee trough will deepen during the day, resulting in slightly breezy at times SSE to SW winds through the day of 10 to 20 mph. On Saturday, the prevailing 500 hPa anticyclone continues to move east and should be over the spine of the Rockies during the day.
On Friday, an upper level high will be centered over Utah, and a weak inverted trough should begin to develop from Mexico into south-central Texas. Expect some diurnally driven showers and storms Friday afternoon in the Edwards Plateau and Hill country south and southeast of our area, closer to the developing inverted trough and where there is an increase in lower to mid-level moisture. Some increase in cloud cover over our southern counties is expected to limit highs to the lower to mid 90s.
Coastal low pressure area over the South Atlantic Bight, just in the periphery of the Bermuda ridge, will provide tropical moisture into the Carolinas and far eastern Georgia this afternoon and into Saturday.
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Upper ridge will remain in place over the western half of the CONUS for the next several days. The heat advisory has reduced to the southern two-thirds of the CWA for today as a weakened cold front moves through.
Diurnal heating is the main driver behind the thunderstorm activity, and CAMs have consistently shown that storms will generate in the High Plains. Tomorrow, more of the upper level high builds overhead and a stable atmosphere should allow for a break in precipitation activity.
We're still seated along the periphery of an upper level high situated near the Great Basin to Four Corners region, as it builds eastward.
Current showers lingering over Central NY will taper off through this evening, with weak high pressure building in to keep precipitation chances low through Friday morning. Temperatures will begin to warm up again, with high temperatures in the low to mid 80s Friday. There is a bit uncertainty regarding how far west these scattered showers and thunderstorms will be able to make it with high pressure to the west, but latest trends in the model guidance does bring the showers a bit farther to the west into Saturday morning.
1245 AM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024 Overnight we will see the same overall weather pattern that we had last night: Calm and quiet surface conditions with some scattered cloud coverage lingering over the CWA, being funneled in around the high off the East that continues to be the primary motivating factor for our weather tonight. Stable conditions persisting throughout the period will facilitate areas of patchy fog along the Highway 84 corridor during the early morning hours. Low temperatures overnight are expected to drop into the lower 70s.
(Today and tonight) The heat will continue today across the Southern Plains as the mid-level ridge slowly expands eastward in tandem with a low-level thermal ridge.
Temperatures remain warm each day with afternoon highs generally in the low 90s. Overnight, mild low temperatures will range from the low 70s to around 80 degrees.
(Today and tonight) The upper high will continue to dominate over the southwestern US today and tonight. The center of the upper high will push slightly eastward through the afternoon and overnight hours from being centered over Nevada to being situated over the Four Corners. The increase in heights should help hinder convection, though high res models do show some highly isolated showers and thunderstorms developing over the far southern Rolling Plains and the far souther South Plains during the late afternoon and early evening along weak surface convergence and possibly very subtle weakness in the upper high.
On and off activity is anticipated today with the highest chances over Southwest portions of the state. A stalled frontal boundary and low pressure system has helped fuel scattered showers through the day.
High pressure from the Upper Great Lakes will build across the region on Friday and supply the vast majority of the forecast area with fair dry weather through the weekend. This fog could be dense in open areas and across the higher terrain. High pressure over the Upper Great lakes will then build across our area Friday and Friday night. The increased sunshine on Friday will make for a warmer day, as the mercury will once again return to the low to mid 80s. Meanwhile at the surface, ridging across the Lower Great Lakes will support fair weather for the start of the weekend, with a few afternoon showers and storms possible well inland from both lakes. Meanwhile at the surface, ridging across the Lower Great Lakes will support fair weather through for the start of the weekend.
A weak cold front is approaching the Canadian border and will slowly continue southward throughout the day and bring a northerly wind shift and slightly cooler temperatures, most notably over the plains.
Our low elevations will observe highs in the high 90s to a few degrees over 100 and widespread overnight lows reaching into the upper 60s and warmer.
535 AM MDT Fri Jul 12 2024 - Near-record daytime temperatures are expected today and tomorrow especially in the lower valleys. The forecast remains on track for near-record daytime temperatures today and tomorrow as a high pressure center continues to move in overhead. As a result, a Heat Advisory is in effect for the lower valleys of eastern Utah and the Grand Valley in western Colorado beginning this morning at 10 AM. This morning's water vapor satellite imagery continues to show a seasonably dry airmass in place across the forecast area, but you can also see moisture beginning to wrap itself around the high pressure system into parts of western and central Utah.
606 AM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024 (Today and tonight) The upper high will continue to dominate over the southwestern US today and tonight. The center of the upper high will push slightly eastward through the afternoon and overnight hours from being centered over Nevada to being situated over the Four Corners. The increase in heights should help hinder convection, though high res models do show some highly isolated showers and thunderstorms developing over the far southern Rolling Plains and the far souther South Plains during the late afternoon and early evening along weak surface convergence and possibly very subtle weakness in the upper high.
Upper ridging has been in place across the west into the central US with westerly to northwesterly flow pattern aloft. Heat to build across the area today into Saturday with thermal ridging aloft, and increasing H85 temperatures into the 20s Celsius. With highs into the upper 80s and 90s, and the higher dewpoints, heat index values will top out in the 90s to lower 100s across the area.
Given the high PWAT values, some of these showers and thunderstorms could produce locally heavy rainfall. The anticipated cloud cover should help keep temperatures around normal today, with high temperatures expected to be in the low 90s. Slightly warmer temperatures are expected Saturday, with afternoon highs reaching the mid to upper 90s.
550 AM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024 (Today through Saturday afternoon) Very little changes today as upper ridging remains just to our northwest with a weakness over south Texas. A weakness in the upper ridge will move north from Mexico and into southern portions of the area. Increased moisture and lower heights will lead to slightly cooler temperatures with highs about 3-5 degrees lower than what we will see today.
630 AM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024 - Warmer today with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s.
With light winds and some upper level clouds streaming overhead today (perhaps some mid-level cumulus as well), highs are still forecast to reach the lower to mid 90s for most areas.
Strong high pressure is currently over southern UT and northern AZ early this morning. This slight shift in position from where the high was yesterday should allow for better moisture advection leading to increased chances for showers and thunderstorms across the region today.
600 AM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024 (Today and tonight) The heat will continue today across the Southern Plains as the mid-level ridge slowly expands eastward in tandem with a low-level thermal ridge.
407 AM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024 - Warmer today with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s.
317 AM MDT Fri Jul 12 2024 - Near-record daytime temperatures are expected today and tomorrow especially in the lower valleys. The forecast remains on track for near-record daytime temperatures today and tomorrow as a high pressure center continues to move in overhead. As a result, a Heat Advisory is in effect for the lower valleys of eastern Utah and the Grand Valley in western Colorado beginning this morning at 10 AM. This morning's water vapor satellite imagery continues to show a seasonably dry airmass in place across the forecast area, but you can also see moisture beginning to wrap itself around the high pressure system into parts of western and central Utah.
627 AM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024 (Today through Saturday) Showers are beginning to develop this morning and will expect additional development as we head through the morning hours as a tropical wave passes south of the region and we remain under an area of troughing between high pressure centers northwest and east of South Texas. Have gone a bit above these, but below the NBM that indicates temps in the lower to mid 90s.
(Today and tonight) The persistent high pressure responsible for all the recent heat is currently centered over Utah and will slowly migrate east today and tomorrow towards the Four Corners region. A weak offshore upper level low on the eastern periphery of the high, will gradually slide north over the next couple of days from SoCal to the Central Coast latitude. The offshore upper level low will advect cooler low level temperatures and moisture as slowly lifts north.
624 AM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024 (Today and tonight) Today's weather will be similar to the past few days, with highs ranging from the lower 90s to around 100 degrees. Our southern counties could see increased cloud cover this afternoon as an inverted trough starts to set up to our southwest and moisture increases through the column. This cloud cover will help keep this area a few degrees cooler compared to areas further north.
(Friday through Saturday) Typical mid-July weather is expected to continue into this weekend as we remain flanked by the upper-level ridge out west across the Four Corners Region and another ridge extending over much of the SE CONUS. Likewise, overnight temperatures will also trend warmer as well with mostly lower to mid 70s areawide.
621 AM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024 (Today) Issued at 300 AM AM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024 The airmass that brought slightly cooler/drier air to the area over the last couple of days will begin to retreat today as a ridge in the SW CONUS begins to expand eastward. Temps appear likely to rise into the low/mid 90s during the afternoon for the majority of the area.
655 AM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024 (Friday through Saturday) Typical mid-July weather is expected to continue into this weekend as we remain flanked by the upper-level ridge out west across the Four Corners Region and another ridge extending over much of the SE CONUS. Likewise, overnight temperatures will also trend warmer as well with mostly lower to mid 70s areawide.
(Today through Saturday) Latest upper level analysis shows the typical Desert Southwest and Bermuda ridge extending to the East Coast. A shallow trough is in place between those to highs extending from the Great Lakes to around the Missouri/Arkansas border. Models show upper level ridge building across the northern Gulf Coast this weekend as the trough lifts northward and shifts east. This will allow for both slightly warmer temps and higher dewpoints to develop over the CWA.
Thankfully, despite high temperatures in the mid to upper 90s on Saturday, the lower dewpoints should keep heat indices below advisory criteria.
329 PM EDT Fri Jul 12 2024 A disturbance triggering scattered showers and thunderstorms will move northeast tonight, leaving weak high pressure and dry weather for Saturday.
A bit more cloud cover may keep conditions a couple degrees cooler across areas north of I-40.
(Tonight) No surprise in tonight's forecast, expect much of the same as last night, as high pressure promotes subsidence across the area. Most areas should be in the low 70s with dewpoints in the mid-60s.
(Now through Saturday) A broad upper level ridge over the western Atlantic will continue to build westward through Saturday.
1248 PM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024 (Today through Saturday) Latest upper level analysis shows the typical Desert Southwest and Bermuda ridge extending to the East Coast. A shallow trough is in place between those to highs extending from the Great Lakes to around the Missouri/Arkansas border. Models show upper level ridge building across the northern Gulf Coast this weekend as the trough lifts northward and shifts east. This will allow for both slightly warmer temps and higher dewpoints to develop over the CWA.
Tonight's lows will range from the mid to upper 60s across the lowlands, to the lower 60s over the northeast mountains. Highs will reach the mid 90s across the lowlands, ranging into the upper 70s over the northeast mountains. Heat index values should stay in the mid 90s across the lowlands Saturday afternoon.
Ridging aloft will continue to supress convection and fair weather Cu could be expected again tomorrow afternoon.
1223 PM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024 (Today through Saturday) For the past few days, air mass showers and storms have been forming over mainly the southern half of South Central TX, as an inverted mid level trough was positioned from Northern Mexico into Central TX and an upper level trough axis extended SW-NE across West and NW TX.
The high that has dominated the pattern for the last week will shift so that the center is farther east at the very end of this period.
1236 PM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024 - Warmer today with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s.
With minimal capping and plenty of warm, humid, and unstable air flowing in from the southeast, expect shower and storm development to continue as outflow spreads westward into the Pee Dee region towards a stalled cold front. As the boundary shifts inland, waves of low pressure will develop along enhancing convergence and convective development. With the cloud cover and high rain chances, not anticipating a Heat Advisory for Saturday, though temps will still reach the low 90s most areas. Southeast winds will become more southerly through today as low pressure off the SC coast shifts slowly inland dragging a nearly stationary front slowly inland along with it.
Some drier air has wrapped around the trough and is limiting rainfall over our northern zones and this trend should continue through the rest of the day. Saturday will be the last day of southwest to west flow with highest rain chances east of the coast as the Atlantic ridge starts to build in over the region once again.