Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Cooke City) but recreation in the high country will be impacted by a period of heavy wet snow and strong westerly winds over the next 12-18 hours. JKL An upper level low is moving into the region, bringing a chance for strong to severe thunderstorms through around 9 pm this evening. PWATs are around 150-200% of normal, however, the highest expected rainfall totals through Wednesday are generally northwest of the CWA. Temperatures Wednesday will be cooler than today, with highs generally in the 60s. Archer Upper low will weaken and depart quickly to the northeast Thursday.
244 AM EDT Wed Sep 18 2024 High pressure will continue to bring mainly dry and mild weather through the remainder of the week and into this weekend for most of the region. 240 AM Update: High pressure will remain in control over most of the area today and Thursday. Low pressure located along the Mid- Atlantic Coastline will track out to sea tonight.
(Today through Thursday) Ridging will settle over the region through the short-term period leading to subsidence across the area. With enough moisture still lingering around (mainly in the lower levels), have maintained some low end PoPs in the forecast (<20%) for today and tomorrow, as a few showers/storms may still be possible. Temperatures will be a few degrees warmer today, and a few more on Thursday.
A trough of low pressure will swing across the western US during the second half of the week, bringing a slight chance of precipitation to the southern Great Basin and reinforcing the below-normal temperatures. Drier and warmer conditions will return over the weekend as a high-pressure ridge builds over the region.
(Today through Thursday) We will be under high pressure through the short term. There is a remnant low pressure to our northeast, that will try to spin some clouds into the far eastern areas. The low pressure will slide eastward on Thursday, allowing the high pressure to firmly set up over the area, with generally just fair weather cumulus in the afternoon.
305 AM EDT Wed Sep 18 2024 High pressure will continue to bring mainly dry and mild weather through the remainder of the week and into this weekend for most of the region. 240 AM Update: High pressure will remain in control over most of the area today and Thursday. Low pressure located along the Mid- Atlantic Coastline will track out to sea tonight.
The low will move southward through this morning, bringing light rain chances to the Bay Area by mid-to-late morning. As the low moves through, moisture wrapping around the back side will affect areas south of the Bay Area, including the Central Coast, by the middle of Thursday morning. Shower activity ends gradually Thursday evening as the low moves inland.
101 AM EDT Wed Sep 18 2024 High pressure will continue to bring mainly dry and mild weather through the remainder of the week and into this weekend for most of the region. 350 PM Update: High pressure continues to dominate our weather with just some high cirrostratus overhead of a low pressure system over the Carolinas. Tonight will generally be partly cloudy with the higher clouds remaining across the area. Partly sunny skies are again expected on Wednesday with high pressure remaining in control for the most part.
1153 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024 (Tonight) Local weather conditions across the TN Valley overnight will continue to be dominated by an upper-level area of low pressure that is predicted to remain nearly stationary across western SC through the period. A broad area of altostratus clouds (accompanied by a few sprinkles of rain) along the western periphery of the low's circulation spread westward into northern AL earlier this evening, but recent trends in IR satellite data and near term model guidance both suggest that the leading edge of the cloud mass will continue to erode with time. The alternative scenario is that the cloud layer does not erode as quickly as advertised, with a few sprinkles of rain possible across northeast AL and adjacent portions of southern Middle TN overnight, along with warmer low temps that would reduce concern for fog formation.
1244 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024 (Tonight through Wednesday night) Midlevel high pressure over Texas will continue to slowly dry out the midlevels and minimize rain chances today and tomorrow. Tomorrow will be slightly warmer than today and heat indices will rise to 105-110 degrees.
The second of two low pressure systems will impact the Silver State over the next 48 hours. A low pressure center will move down the west coast into northern California Wednesday into Thursday.
Upper level ridge axis will continue to be the dominant weather maker across West Central Texas through tonight. Not much change in air mass so temperatures will be pretty close to where they were yesterday, with highs climbing into the low to mid 90s areawide look completely reasonable. MOrning lows continue to inch up a little with lows in the low to mid 70s most areas.
No rain expected throughout the day as upper ridging dominates the local area. Low temperatures are forecast to range from the lower 70s across the Hill Country and southern Edwards Plateau to mid and upper 70s across the rest of the local area. By noon on Thursday, partly cloudy skies are forecast to dominate the local area with highs in the lower 90s across the Hill Country and southern Edwards Plateau while the rest of the local area gets into the mid to upper 90s.
The surface and upper low will be stacked over eastern Montana today and will slowly drift NE across the region today and move to the NE tonight. Heavy rain is expected on the west side of the low tonight with dry slotting on the east side of the low. Areas SW of the low today will have strong NW winds with a tight surface gradient. Winds will be much lighter to the NE of this area today being closer to the low. The upper level low will depart to the northeast on Thursday taking the rain with it.
Expect daytime highs generally in the 80s with overnight lows ranging from the upper 60s across the northern counties to the low to mid 70s along the coast.
(Now through Thursday) An upper low centered near the Carolinas early this morning gradually broadens and evolves into an upper trof over the eastern states through Thursday.
The low pressure system responsible for yesterday's cool, showery, cloudy conditions is tracking northeast into Montana which will support a drying trend for southeast Idaho, yet its close proximity may still produce some showers and even a thunderstorm or two today. Our next in a series of low pressure systems still looks like it favors a track south and west of our forecast area, yielding growing confidence in dry conditions Thursday with temperatures inching up into the mid-60s to lower- 70s, and perhaps some more patchy morning fog.
651 AM EDT Wed Sep 18 2024 Low pressure centered over the southern Appalachians this morning will drift northeast today and Thursday bringing more clouds and precipitation.
Storm coverage spans the waters south of the Dry Tortugas and the Lower and Middle Keys as well as over the Middle Keys with new cells bubbling along both old and new outflow boundaries alike. Outside of storm activity, temperatures across the Keys are in the lower to mid 80s with seemingly unphased dewpoints in the upper 70s.
Geelhart A rex block remains in place over the eastern CONUS with upper ridging over the northeast US and an upper low over the southeast CONUS.
222 AM MST Wed Sep 18 2024 Breezy and dry conditions with temperatures a few degrees cooler than normal through the work week.
Upper low will pass to the south today, with lingering clouds, mainly to south and east of Salem. Otherwise, high pressure will return, with dry weather and bit below seasonal temperatures under variable onshore flow.
621 AM EDT Wed Sep 18 2024 High pressure will continue to bring mainly dry and mild weather through the remainder of the week and into this weekend for most of the region. 240 AM Update: High pressure will remain in control over most of the area today and Thursday. Low pressure located along the Mid- Atlantic Coastline will track out to sea tonight.
Broad upper level trough persists across the southeastern United States and reaches southward past the Keys. In turn, markedly diminishing the western Flank of the Atlantic ridge.
In the meanwhile, a strong northwest wind flow aloft will keep temperatures below normal as afternoon highs stay in the lower 80s. Ensemble upper-air analysis show the upper low moving across Central California on Thursday.
637 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024 (Today through Thursday) Low pressure continues to swirl over the western Carolinas bringing some cloud cover to the area.
Troughing remains over the region today with cooler weather continuing. Weak high pressure brings a break in the weather on Thursday.
The lower visibilities due to fog have generally improved. The low level jet never really goes away today, but does seem to fluctuate in intensity. The lower visibilities around KDVL have also improved, so think the fog threat is done now too.
649 AM EDT Wed Sep 18 2024 An upper level low pressure system over the southern Appalachians will slowly migrate to the east today. High pressure and dry weather will then persist into the weekend. Stacked low pressure over the southern Appalachians to meander slowly east and weaken today. This will result in more favorable radiational cooling conditions leading to lows dipping into the upper 50s to the lower 60s. A vort lobe rotating around the western periphery of mid level trof and an axis of marginal instability may result in the threat for a shower or thunderstorm east of ILN/s area Thursday afternoon.
Nice warm and sunny days will end the week with highs in the 60s and 70s most valley locations except 80s in the lower valleys between Orofino and the Salmon River corridor.
Discussion: What's left of the tropical cyclone, is currently centered over the Carolina's providing some cloud cover and fog under broken skies. Wrap around from that system and residual energy leftover under troughing aloft, will bring showers and maybe some thunderstorms back to the same areas this afternoon and evening; most likely less in the form of amounts. Temperatures are expected to be several degrees warmer this afternoon with readings back in the 80s for many.
631 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024 (Today through Thursday) Ridging will settle over the region through the short-term period leading to subsidence across the area. With enough moisture still lingering around (mainly in the lower levels), have maintained some low end PoPs in the forecast (<20%) for today and tomorrow, as a few showers/storms may still be possible. Temperatures will be a few degrees warmer today, and a few more on Thursday.
Shower activity with diminish in the morning hours as the low shifts south. High pressure will build into the area tonight and Thursday then remain in place through late in the week.
A warmer and drier patter returns late week through the weekend. ------------------------------------------------------------------- An elongated, east-to-west trough axis remains situated across the mid-Atlantic. This weak forcing is expected to push into portions of Pennsylvania and West Virginia lowlands into the day today, although the main forcing will be confided east of the Allegheny's, with some upslope flow possible for the higher elevations of eastern Tucker County, where we expect the highest precipitation totals. Most-likely total precipitation for the ridges remains a lack-luster couple tenths of an inch, with high confidence storm totals are less than 0. There is a lower probability scenario, whereby the Atlantic trough axis elongates and accelerates easterly flow, pulling more moisture and perhaps some rain chances in while keeping temperatures cooler.
A warmer and drier patter returns late week through the weekend. ------------------------------------------------------------------- East-west oriented troughing extending into the Mid-Atlantic region, along with slow-moving stacked low pressure over the western Carolinas, will continue to promote moist easterly flow into the Upper Ohio Valley today. 25 remain lackluster at best, and mainly confined to the ridges. Temperatures will be held in check by cloud cover, although eastern Ohio will get a bit warmer with a thinner layer. There is a lower probability scenario, whereby the Atlantic trough axis elongates and accelerates easterly flow, pulling more moisture and perhaps some rain chances in while keeping temperatures cooler.
827 AM EDT Wed Sep 18 2024 High pressure will continue to bring mainly dry and mild weather through the remainder of the week and into this weekend for most of the region. 240 AM Update: High pressure will remain in control over most of the area today and Thursday. Low pressure located along the Mid- Atlantic Coastline will track out to sea tonight.
623 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024 (Today through Thursday) We will be under high pressure through the short term. There is a remnant low pressure to our northeast, that will try to spin some clouds into the far eastern areas. The low pressure will slide eastward on Thursday, allowing the high pressure to firmly set up over the area, with generally just fair weather cumulus in the afternoon.
Our early morning fog has burned off today and the aforementioned ridge building in will suppress any chance for significant cloud coverage developing today, allowing for nonexistent rain chances across the region today. Early morning water vapor imagery/RAP analysis showed the circulation around a closed low spinning over the Carolinas. This closed low will continue to lift east northeast while weakening through tonight. Temperatures will top out slightly warmer this afternoon and bottom out slightly warmer than normal Thursday morning.
Currently have an upper low spinning over eastern MT and about to move into the Northern High Plains with another upper impulse just off of the Central CA coast. The upper low that is just off of the CA coast will track east for the next couple of days and by Sat morning will be tracking over the Desert Southwest and into the Central Rockies Sat night. At the same time a cold front is expected to sag south and by 00z Sun will extend from northwest KS into eastern Nebraska.
(Now through Thursday night) An upper trof over the eastern states begins to move off into the western Atlantic Thursday night while an upper ridge which extends from the south central states to the Great Lakes region inches eastward and strengthens a bit. A weak and diffuse surface trof over the coastal counties may allow for some spotty showers and storms to develop this afternoon. Lows tonight and Thursday night range from the mid 60s well inland to the lower 70s at the coast.
(This evening through Thursday night) Seeing some isolated showers along the Mississippi Coast this afternoon, which lines up well with the low PoPs that were added for that area. The upper level trough sitting over the eastern CONUS will gradually start to move off into the Atlantic over the next day or so as an upper level ridge spreads eastward from the Southern Plains.
Currently - Persistent mid and upper level troughing aligned over the southeastern United States, along with considerable lower level moisture is maintaining a wetter than normal setup across the Keys this afternoon. The upper level trough axis will remain just to our west and should amplify further. The trough off the Atlantic Coast is expected to slowly deepen and keep our winds light and often variable. The amplified upper level trough is expected to break with the core shifting off into the Atlantic and ridging moves down into the eastern United States. At the surface, this will result in ridging taking hold of the southeastern United States and the Atlantic trough deepening as it starts accelerating southeast to south towards the windward islands. Its counterpart, ridging, will consolidate across the southeastern United States.
1238 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024 (Today through Thursday) Ridging will settle over the region through the short-term period leading to subsidence across the area. With enough moisture still lingering around (mainly in the lower levels), have maintained some low end PoPs in the forecast (<20%) for today and tomorrow, as a few showers/storms may still be possible. Temperatures will be a few degrees warmer today, and a few more on Thursday.
Aloft, a trough will continue to be positioned north of the area, providing deep layer shear and instability for storms forming from heating of elevated terrain. Highs today will be warmer than yesterday, 90s for most places, 80s in higher elevations, and triple digit heat along the Rio Grande in the Big Bend and Presidio Valley. Highs tomorrow will be even warmer tomorrow as a ridge over the southern CONUS amplifies, with mid to upper 90s most places, 80s in highest elevations, and triple digit heat along the Rio Grande in the Big Bend and Presidio Valley. With continued southeasterly surface winds advecting in warm, humid air, lows Thursday night will again be warmer than average and in the 60s and 70s for most places.
An area of moisture associated with a weak area of low pressure which was heading eastbound across the Carolinas, was bringing stratus over KY/TN and southward. A presence of these clouds will keep temperatures on a slightly cooler trend.
Lows are expected to dip into the low 60s through this weekend.
06" at Rocky Ridge (RGEC1). As the low pressure center remains offshore, rain is expected to be less widespread as once thought with the region picking up around a trace to a few hundredths of an inch through the afternoon and evening. The low will move southward through this morning, bringing light rain chances to the Bay Area by mid-to-late morning. As the low moves through, moisture wrapping around the back side will affect areas south of the Bay Area, including the Central Coast, by the middle of Thursday morning. Shower activity ends gradually Thursday evening as the low moves inland.
Temps do seem like they will be trending more towards seasonal averages up until Wednesday when ridging builds back in. Several of the CAMs runs are not very impressive with storm development this evening, but do break out some elevated activity later tonight along the boundary as it moves through western MN thanks to the low level jet.
The closed low continues to spin over the Smoky Mountains, with enough moisture at the 700mb level for mid-level clouds to form across northern and northeastern Alabama. Lows will be a few degrees higher than last night as low level moisture slightly increases in the low to mid 60s. The closed low to our northeast will weaken and move eastward toward the Mid-Atlantic states on Thursday, while upper heights will increase over the region in response to a building ridge in northern Mexico.
235 PM EDT Wed Sep 18 2024 An upper low over the area will move slowly east to the coast by early Thursday. A few showers or thunderstorms are possible Thursday mainly in the east Midlands closer to the upper low.
Short wave ridging will prevail across the southern Plains, with dry and unseasonably warm temperatures continuing. Skies will be mostly clear tonight, with overnight lows in the low to mid 70s. Temperatures tomorrow will be very near or perhaps a degree or two warmer than today, with afternoon highs topping out in the mid and upper 90s.
(This evening through Thursday) An upper level low remains off of the North Bay coast at this hour and will continue to drop southward throughout the day before moving onshore over the Central Coast tonight/tomorrow.
HRL (Today through Thursday) The only thing that sort of defines this trough axis that has been very slow to move through is in PW values. We have brought precip chances up a bit from the NBM and also tried to give the highest numbers to the areas that look to have the highest potential for sh/ts with help from CAMS and synoptic scale models.
All precipitation will end by midnight tonight with dry conditions and much warmer on Thursday.
The lower visibilities due to fog have generally improved. The low level jet never really goes away today, but does seem to fluctuate in intensity.
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: A vertically stacked/occluded low pressure system over eastern Montana will continue to drift northeast tonight. NW winds will increase from SW to NE tonight as the low pulls away.
Look for strong upper level ridging influences to build in from our west especially as Thursday progresses. (Thursday Night through next Wednesday) Upper level ridging influences will be dominant weather player through upcoming weekend with atmospheric low level ridging influences also continuing.
147 PM EDT Wed Sep 18 2024 High pressure will continue to bring mainly dry and mild weather through the remainder of the week and into this weekend for most of the region. 240 AM Update: High pressure will remain in control over most of the area today and Thursday. Low pressure located along the Mid- Atlantic Coastline will track out to sea tonight.
Upper level low pressure will move south and along the west coast into central California tonight into tomorrow.
The upper low that brought precipitation for portions of the area yesterday is digning south of the area this mornimg. However there some evidence a few showers could push into southeast Modoc County this afternoon and moisture from the northern frindge of the departing upper low pushes just far north.
The upper low that brought precipitation for portions of the area yesterday is digging south of the area this morning. However there some evidence a few showers could push into southeast Modoc County this afternoon and moisture from the northern fringe of the departing upper low pushes just far north.
(Tonight through Thursday night) Persistence will be the main driver of the short term forecast as a mid-level high builds over TX with an area of low pressure along the east coast and another low near the CA coast. Tomorrow heat indices will range 105-110 with the Coastal Bend/Coastal Plains expected to be on the higher end.
(Tonight) A weak area of low pressure over the Carolina's Piedmont should continue slowly moving eastward. Hi-res grand ensemble probabilistic guidance was hinting at a medium to high chance (40-70%) of fog/low visibility occurrence, with the higher chances more over NW Alabama (where the heaviest recent rainfall occurred),and a lesser chance for our more eastern areas given higher chances for residual clouds and a drier ground.
The surface and upper low will be stacked over eastern Montana today and will slowly drift NE across the region today and move to the NE tonight. Heavy rain is expected on the west side of the low today with dry slotting on the east side of the low. Areas SW of the low today will have strong NW winds with a tight surface gradient. Winds will be much lighter to the NE of this area today being closer to the low. The upper level low will depart to the northeast on Thursday taking the rain with it.
Tonight-Thursday night: GOES water vapor channels early this afternoon showed a trough across the northern Rockies with a plume of moisture extending north and west towards it from the plains and much drier low-level air over the Great Lakes. The axis of stronger moisture transport will shift east into the area later tonight and Thursday ahead of the trough, likely resulting in scattered showers/storms, most numerous near and west of the MS River, gradually diminishing through early afternoon as the moisture transport weakens a bit before refocusing late in the day ahead of the trough/front. Any initial supercells could pose a risk for large hail in excess of 1" with a plume of steeper mid-level lapse rates ahead of the trough, especially west of the Mississippi River.
The low pressure system that brought widespread beneficial rainfall to the region, has moved into eastern Montana this afternoon.