Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
The morning convective activty and associated cloud cover had been keeping surface temperatures a few degrees cooler than they were this time yesterday, but the most recent obs are creeping back up near 90F again, with dew points generally in the upper 70s. From synopsis, an early season Canadian high pressure system will continue to traverse the eastern United States over the next few days. As the high moves into the Atlantic late week and over the weekend, breezes will shift to the east to southeast and slacken.
Broad mid to upper level ridging continues its gradual eastward track entering the Great Plains Region. Troughing remains over the North Atlantic region as well as the Pacific Northwest. At the surface, a high pressure just to the east of our area has shifted winds across the area out of the south. This high has brought an air mass that has kept high temperatures below seasonal averages for this time of year. As we go into the overnight hours, the warm front is anticipated to stall out and become more diffuse to our southwest. 8â inches as a result of increased moisture transport from southerly winds and the low-level jet. 5 inches with the higher end of that range concentrated near areas in southern Linn and Bates Counties.
1100 AM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025 - High pressure shifts a little farther eastward across the MS River and our NE winds will veer to E and eventually SE.
1127 AM EDT Wed Aug 27 2025 High pressure brings brings dry and unseasonably cool conditions through the week.
Lingering high clouds overnight tonight are expected to keep morning low temperatures a few degrees warmer than the crisp lows earlier today.
Dry, mild and otherwise low-impact weather will persist through the remainder of the week with North America mired in a blocking pattern. Call it whatever you like, but with deep troughing anchored over the eastern half of the CONUS and an amplified ridge over the West Coast, there will be very few opportunities for appreciable Gulf or Pacific moisture to creep back into central Illinois.
However, a deep enough outflow boundary impinging on the low level jet (which will continue to veer overnight) will likely bring at least scattered showers and storms into northern Oklahoma during the late evening and overnight hours.
Broad area of high pressure continues to dominate for the next few days. The first wave is still to our north along the Canadian border, while the other is a weak wave that stems from a parent troughing pattern over the eastern CONUS.
Shower and thunderstorm activity will largely be minimized through the weekend, as drier and warmer weather develops.
- Cooler temperatures continue through the weekend.
Low pressure will pass south of the region late week, followed by another cool high pressure for the weekend. Cooler and dry conditions continue this afternoon with temps hovering in the mid to upper 70s with dew points mixing out into the upper 40s in many locations. Flow will gradually turn sswly through Thursday afternoon promoting a bit warmer highs in the lower to mid 80s. We won't quite see return moisture just yet, with dew points mixing out into the lower 50s across the area.
Upper-level water vapor imagery nicely shows the longwave trough across the eastern CONUS with ridging to the west. A warm front is progged to lift through northeast Oklahoma and approach the forecast area after midnight tonight. Rain chances largely look to wind down by Thursday evening as the aforementioned warm front slinks back south into Arkansas.
We are still in northwest flow aloft with a trof over the Great Lakes through the Ohio Valley to the Mid Mississippi Valley by tomorrow. We stay in weak northwest flow aloft as upper ridging develops over the western CONUS late this week.
149 PM EDT Wed Aug 27 2025 High pressure will keep us dry and cooler than normal to close out the workweek. You can expect cooler than normal temperatures to persist with high pressure in control. Should be a mostly sunny Thursday with winds remaining light with high pressure overhead.
142 PM EDT Wed Aug 27 2025 Expect dry and cool conditions as high pressure prevails through Thursday.
156 PM EDT Wed Aug 27 2025 - Rain and Thunderstorms Thursday - Dry and Warming Up Into This Weekend - Rain and Thunderstorms Thursday Today will be similar to yesterday with highs slightly warmer in the mid 70s. The low level jet and warm air advection will provide some lift late tonight into Thursday morning as a cold front moves south into the region.
119 PM EDT Wed Aug 27 2025 High pressure then builds over the area today, and moves south of the region for Thursday.
(Tonight) Mild and dry weather continues across the area as high pressure enforces an unseasonably cool airmass over most of the eastern CONUS. Previous Forecast: Tranquil weather across the Tennessee Valley today, with high pressure at the surface remaining the dominant weather feature, while northwesterly flow aloft is helping to reinforce this cooler, drier air mass. Expect afternoon highs to reach the low to mid 80s, with Min RH values between 30-35% making it feel quite comfortable outside. These clouds will help keep temperatures warmer by 5-10 degrees, with lows remaining in the upper 50s to lower 60s.
Current Water Vapor and upper air models show upper trough over the New England region, with northwest flow over the forecast area as a narrow ridge sits over the lee side of the Rockies into the northern plains.
1234 PM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025 - Showers and a few thunderstorms move across the area along a cold front late this evening and overnight. The main focus is on a cold front coming through Wisconsin tonight, and temperatures approaching freezing Thursday night. Readings will be warmer today (highs in the low to mid-70s) as west winds drive in a small wedge of warmer air.
Tonight, an upper trough remains over the eastern CONUS, keeping northwest flow over the Lower Ohio Valley. Tomorrow, the upper trough remains over the eastern CONUS, keeping northwest flow over the CWA with high pressure at the surface. Winds will begin out of the south and will continue veering all day towards the north as the center of the high continues moving off to the east. Temperatures are expected to climb slightly warmer than today, but still remaining near 80.
1213 PM EDT Wed Aug 27 2025 High pressure brings brings dry and unseasonably cool conditions through the week.
1249 PM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025 (Rest of Today and Tonight) Tranquil weather across the Tennessee Valley today, with high pressure at the surface remaining the dominant weather feature, while northwesterly flow aloft is helping to reinforce this cooler, drier air mass. Expect afternoon highs to reach the low to mid 80s, with Min RH values between 30-35% making it feel quite comfortable outside. These clouds will help keep temperatures warmer by 5-10 degrees, with lows remaining in the upper 50s to lower 60s.
Best chances along and east of the crest, as stronger monsoonal moisture advection will occur east due to Four Corner's ridge breaking down. - High temperatures will be seasonable, with mostly low to mid 90s in the Valley; cooler mid to upper 80s in the Delta.
With a reinforcing dry, cool air mass expected mid-week, cooler than normal temperatures and dry weather are likely through Thursday. High pressure will continue to settle into the region through the near term providing cool, dry weather. Highs today will be in the low to mid 80s with dewpoints in the low to mid 50s. This will prevent ideal radiational cooling conditions but lows will still get down into the low to mid 60s, about 5 to 10 degrees below normal.
Below normal high temperatures today, then trending warmer into this upcoming weekend. A secondary impact from this cloud cover will keep temperature "cooler". High temperatures today are forecast to be around 90-95 degrees in the lower elevations and 65-70 in the higher elevations. Confidence today on the low to medium side. Min RHs will be 30-40 percent in the low elevations and 40-60 percent in the mountains through Thursday then min RHs drop to 15-25 percent in the low elevations and to 20-35 percent in the mountains through the weekend.
115 PM EDT Wed Aug 27 2025 High pressure will keep us dry and cooler than normal to close out the workweek. You can expect cooler than normal temperatures to persist with high pressure in control. Should be a mostly sunny Thursday with winds remaining light with high pressure overhead.
This activity will be associated with continued low-level warm air advection (~850mb) and a weak backdoor cold front beginning to slide in from the ENE. Expect warmer conditions on Thursday with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s for most locations. An upper trough is forecast to remain over the Northeast U.
Additionally, an upper-level jet will move towards the Lower/Middle Mississippi Valley leaving our area in a zone of upper-level diffluence. Storm motion is expected to be to the southeast along the axis of convergence of the low-level jet making training storms possible overnight. Given expansive cloud cover, high temperatures will remain in the low to mid 70s.
Temperatures will be a bit warmer, lower 70s in the cloudy areas to lower and possibly mid 80s where there is more sun. Severe threat is on the low end, though could see some wind gusts approaching 60 mph with the initial cluster of storms in Colorado/adjacent counties in northwest Kansas/ along with some small hail, with those threats ending by 06z. though a shallow cool/stable airmass may persist over portions of the Goodland county warning area (as the aforementioned lee cyclone in southeast CO and southwest KS slowly shifts southward into the OK-TX Panhandle).
- Cooler temperatures, increased humidity, and measurable rainfall is expected for the next few days. - Drier and gradually warming as we move towards the holiday weekend Satellite imagery shows center of upper low centered over East idaho this afternoon. Thunderstorms already redeveloping across higher elevation areas early this afternoon, expected to fill in over most of the area, though the best coverage remains over the higher terrain. Temperatures remain cooler than normal Thursday with daytime highs remaining in the 70s.
South of this boundary, temperatures will be in the low 80s.
These clouds will likely prevent ideal radiational cooling conditions but lows still expected to be in the low to mid 60s, about 5 to 10 degrees below normal.
756 PM EDT Wed Aug 27 2025 Scattered showers or thunderstorms will come to an end early this evening, followed by dry weather Thursday as high pressure builds into the region.
733 PM EDT Wed Aug 27 2025 Expect dry and cool conditions as high pressure prevails through Thursday.
Early evening water vapor satellite imagery is showing a swath of dry air pushing south of the Interstate 4 corridor behind the recent cold front. Scattered to numerous storms will develop across the area Thursday afternoon, with the highest rain chances over southwest Florida around KRSW/KFMY/KPGD, and over the interior around KLAL.
The monsoonal moisture will continue affecting our forecast area, fueling isolated thunderstorms across the WA Cascades and eastern mountains through this evening with mainly showers over the lowlands. Lingering haze may prevail across the lowlands through overnight from plumes of smoke from the fires over Idaho panhandle.
High pressure is swinging eastward through the eastern United States this evening. This along with weak lower level troughing aligned over the Florida Peninsula and has setup a weak confluence zone across our area. Meanwhile, the flow aloft is nebulous thanks to an early season mid latitude trough spanning eastern North America. With that said, night time cooling should help to flatten out the lower level troughing some. Expect overnight temperatures to sit broadly in the lower 80s with dew points in the mid to upper 70s. High pressure swinging through the eastern United States, in concert with weak troughing aligned over Florida have contributed to light east to southeasterly breezes across Keys waters this evening.
646 PM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025 (Tonight) Mild and dry weather continues across the area as high pressure enforces an unseasonably cool airmass over most of the eastern CONUS. Previous Forecast: Tranquil weather across the Tennessee Valley today, with high pressure at the surface remaining the dominant weather feature, while northwesterly flow aloft is helping to reinforce this cooler, drier air mass. Expect afternoon highs to reach the low to mid 80s, with Min RH values between 30-35% making it feel quite comfortable outside. These clouds will help keep temperatures warmer by 5-10 degrees, with lows remaining in the upper 50s to lower 60s.
This afternoon, monsoon moisture remains in place across the region, with the highest PW values across northern Utah with values to around 1 to 1. This CAPE/PWAT combination places us generally on the lower end of the thermodynamic space for flash flooding, but the recent wetting rains and low-level moisture being already in place means that efficient warm rain processes are possible on already wet soils in the area, which is helping raise the risk of flash flooding slightly.
Generally cooler and calmer conditions will build for the end of the week with some more afternoon sun possible for the coastal areas. The low level inversion does look to trend weaker late in the weak and particularly when a trough clips the region through the weekend. Moisture begins to move to the east today as a trough slowly moves toward the Pacific Northwest. A deeper marine layer will support slightly cooler high temperatures in the river valleys. Around 30% of the members are showing ridging (dry with hot interior temperatures), while the remaining 70% show some variety of a troughing pattern, whether that be broad troughing continuing like this weekend, or a cutoff low moving offshore and possibly returning the monsoon pattern.
(Today through next Wednesday) WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Upper level ridge remains situated over the Great Basin today while a region of low pressure moves south toward the Oregon coast.
(Today through Friday) Persistent northwest flow aloft will continue today and tomorrow with longwave troughing focused along the East Coast. For today, expect mostly cloudy skies with low chances for showers to arrive across the west this afternoon which will help to moisten up the lower-levels.
However, a deep enough outflow boundary impinging on the low level jet (which will continue to veer overnight) will likely bring at least scattered showers and storms into northern Oklahoma during the late evening and overnight hours. Although the majority of the morning rain may dissipate or be confined to eastern Oklahoma by early afternoon, an outflow boundary and cold front will support additional development during the mid to late afternoon.
215 AM EDT Thu Aug 28 2025 High pressure moves off the East Coast today. A cold front and low pressure then approach Friday, bringing an increasing potential for showers and scattered thunderstorms.
(Today through Friday) Upper troughing continued from eastern Canada to Florida this evening, with ridging along the lee side of the Rockies. At the surface, high pressure was centered over western Kentucky. Evening dew points were generally in the lower and middle 70s, which wasn't much different than last night.
Broad mid to upper level ridging continues its gradual eastward track entering the Great Plains Region. Troughing remains over the North Atlantic region as well as the Pacific Northwest. At the surface, a high pressure just to the east of our area has shifted winds across the area out of the south. This high has brought an air mass that has kept high temperatures below seasonal averages for this time of year. As we go into the overnight hours, the warm front is anticipated to stall out and become more diffuse to our southwest. 8â inches as a result of increased moisture transport from southerly winds and the low-level jet.
- Cooler temperatures, increased humidity, and measurable rainfall is expected for the next few days. - Drier and gradually warming as we move towards the holiday weekend Satellite imagery shows center of upper low centered over East idaho this afternoon. Thunderstorms already redeveloping across higher elevation areas early this afternoon, expected to fill in over most of the area, though the best coverage remains over the higher terrain. Temperatures remain cooler than normal Thursday with daytime highs remaining in the 70s. A ridge of high pressure rebuilds across the Great Basin for the Labor Day weekend, though the blend maintains a weak threat of isolated thunderstorms across some areas Labor Day.
Confidence is on the low side as a result as both slower and faster scenarios are plausible. 4 inches in a deep warm and humid airmass helping to make for high precip efficiency, will be generous with a "limited" threat for minor flooding of low-lying areas in this low confidence situation.
335 AM EDT Thu Aug 28 2025 - Cold front brings some rain today - Dy and cool Labor Fay Weekend - Cold front brings some rain today An upper low migrating from near James Bay to near the Ontario-NY border swings a trough axis/cold front across the central Great Lakes today.
A developing short wave trough will move quickly through the pattern and drag the vast majority of the tropical air mass east into the desert. (This evening through Thursday) Quiet weather for the rest of today and into tomorrow as an upper level low sits off the coast of central and southern CA. Upper level ridging from the Desert Southwest tries to nose into northern CA, which should lead to slight increase in high temperatures for tomorrow.
- Scattered thunderstorms are possible north of I-20 this evening as a cold front moves into the area. - Rain chances will increase across the area Friday into the weekend, along with cooler temperatures. To the north a cold front will slide southeast across the Panhandle and Oklahoma this afternoon, with the CAMs showing the convection developing along the boundary across the northwest Big Country right around sunset. Given the high temperatures an decent T/Td spread this evening, strong winds likely to be the biggest concern with these storms.
201 AM EDT Thu Aug 28 2025 Expect dry and cool conditions as high pressure prevails through today. The forecast area will remain under a broad H5 trough through today, shifting to east tonight. At the sfc, weak high pressure should linger across the region today. Low temperatures are expected to range from the mid 60s inland to the low 70s along the coast. The stalled front and the developing low pressure will be the focuses for showers and thunderstorms this weekend. Many forecast details will be impacted if the low remains further offshore or makes a closer approach of the coastline.
201 AM MDT Thu Aug 28 2025 - Another cooler day with shower and isolated thunderstorm chances (50-90%).
Ample cloud cover over much of the region has lead to cooler temperatures, allowing for more stable air to settle in place. Weak northwest flow aloft prevail, and with slightly warmer temperatures as 700 mb temperatures rise to near 11 Celsius.
This suggests the highest probabilities for precipitation will reside largely to the north and east of our area. Below Normal Temperatures Thursday Night into Friday Morning Cold air advection behind the surface cold front moving southward tonight will bring unseasonably cool low temperatures back to the region Thursday night into Friday morning, specifically across Wisconsin. This results in low temperatures in the low 40s towards north- central Wisconsin and the low 50s towards northeast Iowa, generally 5-10 degrees below normal for those in Wisconsin. 00z EPS/GEPS develop the lower heights over western South Dakota. With the more eastward solution, probabilities of showers/storms across southeast Minnesota and northeast Iowa (currently 15-20%) will increase whereas the further westward solution will keep the higher probabilities across central and western Minnesota.
- Rain chances will increase across the area Friday into the weekend, along with cooler temperatures. On Thursday, a drier and hotter forecast is expected, with a slight strengthening in the upper level ridge. The southwesterly component to the winds will aid in heating, resulting in warmer temperatures tomorrow in the mid 90s to near 100 degrees.
312 AM EDT Thu Aug 28 2025 A passing cold front will bring rain showers and few isolated thunderstorms this evening through early Friday. A cold front currently moving across the Great Lakes is expected to reach eastern Ohio by late afternoon into early evening. KEY MESSAGES: - Light rain early Friday morning - Cool temperatures continue ---------------------------------------------------------------- A few light showers may linger in the ridges and along the I-80 corridor Friday morning with upslope and lake enhancement.
(Today through Friday) Large scale troughing continues to cover most of the Eastern Seaboard, extending from a deep low pressure centered in the Great Lakes region. This trough will continue to try to dig further south, but in the short term period the trough axis where the primary positive vorticity and energy is located is likely to stall out in northern Florida. With ongoing weak flow at the surface and in the low levels of the atmosphere, the sea breezes will be able to push well inland and cause the most coverage of showers and storms to develop over the interior. High temperatures for Thursday and Friday are expected in the low to mid 90s with lows Thursday night ranging from the low 70s around the Lake O region to the mid and upper 70s for the coastlines and metro areas.
- Drier and gradually warmer this weekend. Low pressure will begin to pull away from the region today. Associated dew point values will start the day in the low 50s and end the day in the lower 40s. A ridge of high pressure rebuilds across the Great Basin for the Labor Day weekend, though the blend maintains a weak threat of isolated thunderstorms across some areas Labor Day.
214 AM EDT Thu Aug 28 2025 Showers and cooler air will move into the region tonight and Friday as a cold front passes through the area. High pressure with dry and progressively milder weather is expected for the upcoming weekend. A cold front is expected to pass through the area west-to-east tonight into Friday morning. The frontal boundary arrives this evening, and will bring much cooler air that will funnel into our area. Although we are currently sitting at below average temperatures, high temperatures are only expected to reach into the low to upper 60s Friday. The upper level trough kicks off to the north and east, settling almost stationary just north of New England.
Confidence is on the low side as a result as both scenarios are plausible. 4 inches in a deep warm and humid airmass helping to make for high precip efficiency, will be generous with a "limited" threat for minor flooding of low-lying areas in this low confidence situation.
Models are hinting at the possibility of strong surface heating and subsequent destabilization over the southwest corner of the CWA where highs are forecast to get into the lower to mid 80s with the remainder of the CWA only getting into the 60s and 70s. Most of the CAMS guidance continues to hold onto the aforementioned linear looking MCS through early Friday morning over the south as the low level jet kicks in again.
339 AM EDT Thu Aug 28 2025 - Cold front brings some rain today - Dy and cool Labor Fay Weekend - Cold front brings some rain today An upper low migrating from near James Bay to near the Ontario-NY border swings a trough axis/cold front across the central Great Lakes today.
Temperatures at 2 AM were generally in the lower to mid 60s with the warm spot in at Moline and Davenport at 64 degrees. An upper trough is forecast to remain over the Northeast U.