Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
147 AM EDT Fri Aug 23 2024 High pressure in control, drifting eastward for the weekend with a continued gradual warming trend and dry weather. More of the persistence forecast in play under high pressure over the region, drifting towards the mid Atlantic coast Friday/Friday night. Steadily moderating temperatures, not quite as cool tonight, and warmer Friday with more readings into the lower 80s as we finally start to transition to return flow. Upper level ridge will also be building over the southern plains region, so the 500mb heights will be increasing across our CWA as well. Upper level ridge continues to build eastward across the central CONUS through the weekend. We'll remain dry through the short term with increasing temperatures as the ridge builds eastward.
An upper level ridge was in place over the Red River region of TX/OK. A northerly flow aloft rounding the upper ridge was bringing a few cirrus southward across this area.
139 AM EDT Fri Aug 23 2024 - Cool tonight, warmer Friday.
The axis of an upper level ridge, anchored over Texas, will stretch northeast through the Tennessee Valley towards the Mid-Atlantic coast today. Subsidence from ridge, a substantial layer of dry air above 700 mb and low PW values (below the 10th percentile) will keep skies fair today.
404 AM EDT Fri Aug 23 2024 The pattern aloft over the region early this morning features troughing extending southward along the eastern part of the country and Florida with ridging over the Atlantic extending westward toward the Florida Straits.
(Today through Saturday) High pressure will expand over the area today and Saturday, along with a brisk easterly flow during the day. With warmer temperatures and dewpoints mixing out in the easterly flow, relative humidity levels will drop in the mid to upper 20s to low 30s across the area. Moisture returns a touch in the southeast on Saturday, with only the northern two-thirds of the area seeing the low relative humidity.
(Today) Warmer and more humid weather begins its return this afternoon as the upper ridge axis continues to shift northeast.
1205 AM CDT Fri Aug 23 2024 (This evening through Friday night) High pressure will dominate the area for the next couple days and we'll continue to be under heat highlights as a result. The ridge of high pressure that's been parked over the Panhandles for the past several days will start to slowly shift east tonight into tomorrow. With an upper level trough moving into the Pacific northwest the breakdown of the long lived high pressure will begin on Friday night.
This, and increasing PVA aloft rounding the upper ridge anchored over the Srn Plains, should be sufficient enough for the development of widely scattered convection mainly over E TX, as what is currently advertised in the current forecast. But until then, a quiet and comfortable night is expected as the drier air should persist across much of the region before the higher RH's return through the day Friday with the return SSErly low level flow.
(Today through Saturday) The upper level ridge has shifted a little to the east this morning. At the surface a stationary front is draped along the northeastern edge of the ridge extending from the Texas Panhandle to southern LA. The upper ridge will shift to the north tonight and Saturday and some height falls may take a few more degrees off the high temperatures.
The approaching trough will help keep at least isolated activity going overnight, with a bit better coverage in northern Coconino County. Moisture values will gradually drop from west to east, so the higher intensity rain we saw earlier should become less likely in western AZ overnight. The previously mentioned longwave trough will continue to dig into California and Nevada on Friday, resulting in an increase to mid and upper-level winds.
Our areal weather pattern tonight is due to surface and upper level ridging influences continuing to be major weather player across our area. (Rest of today through Friday) Temperatures are nearly 10 degrees warmer at this time today than they were this time yesterday. Some patchy cloud cover is noted on visible satellite as one final lobe of energy associated with the exiting trough swings across Alabama.
High temperatures will rise into the low 90s along the coast, and then mid to upper 90s along and north of I-10. These lower temperatures are thanks to the upper level high pressure beginning to slide to the north causing height falls along the Gulf coast and opening us up to allow some weak short waves to push into the area.
Today heralds the return of 590+ DM H5 heights as the 580s retreat to the northeast with the lift out of the long wave trof that brought us our incredibly pleasant air mass we've enjoyed the past few days.
Heat advisory for the Big Country this afternoon and evening was upgraded to a heat warning, as highs will be 110 degrees (This evening through Friday) A strong upper level high is centered just northwest of our area this afternoon. The strong upper level high will shift northeast over the Red River Valley on Friday.
The strong upper high will range southwest to northeast across Oklahoma.
A ridge of high pressure over the southern Plains will slowly wobble toward the mid-Mississippi Valley, and will effectively end our recent string of mild/comfortable days.
Slightly warmer tomorrow, dry weather to continue. A gentle high pressure will be circulating through the Cumberland Plateau tomorrow, this should give us gentle downvalley flow, if any wind is even noticeable. With the low PWAT values and the upper low pinching off south of us, the HREF is dry tomorrow, so maintained the 0 NBM PoPs. We increment slightly warmer once again tomorrow, continuing our incline upwards.
327 AM EDT Fri Aug 23 2024 High pressure in place across the region with below average temperatures will gradually shift offshore into this weekend, yielding a return to near average temperatures. Afternoon highs will be warmer than the past few days, though closer to climo around the low 80s with low 70s for the Poconos. A trough that will eventually close off will approach by Saturday. At the surface, the unseasonably cool and dry high pressure will continue airmass modification while shifting offshore during this period.
325 AM EDT Fri Aug 23 2024 High pressure will settle along the Middle Atlantic Coast this weekend. Fair weather will persist through tonight as an area of high pressure becomes stationary over the Mid Atlantic region.
Temperatures this morning in the low to upper 50s, with a few locations in higher terrain in the 40s.
The forecast area will remain within northwest flow aloft this evening and overnight as the center of the upper-level ridge slowly moves northeast. Temperatures will be on the upswing Friday and Saturday as the upper-level ridge slowly moves northeastward and becomes established over Oklahoma this weekend.
1042 PM PDT Thu Aug 22 2024 A dynamic upper level system will bring cooler temperatures today through Saturday.
906 PM PDT Thu Aug 22 2024 Dry and cooler conditions expected through Saturday.
(Tonight through Saturday night) Mid-level ridge gradually shifts north/northwest today allowing for moisture to continue to increase into the region. A weak midlevel disturbance rotates around the ridge tonight, and cant rule out an isolated shower/storm but will keep PoPs low.
1247 AM EDT Fri Aug 23 2024 Warmer and quieter conditions return today and will last through most of the weekend.
WV imagery this afternoon shows the upper ridge centered over the South Plains, resulting in the somewhat warm temperatures throughout West Texas and Southeast New Mexico at the moment. Meanwhile, the upper ridge continues developing East-northeast, arriving in southern Oklahoma Friday afternoon. Saturday afternoon, some of the CAMs bring impulses though the bottom of the ridge from the northeast, for isolated chances of convection over the southeast half of the CWA, but this is a best- case scenario.
124 AM EDT Fri Aug 23 2024 High pressure tracking from the Ohio Valley to the mid Atlantic Coast will continue to provide dry weather through the weekend. High pressure will continue to provide fair weather overnight. A mid level ridge (anomalous high in strength for the time of year) will slowly build north and east into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley this weekend.
(Today through Saturday) Our region continues to reside on the eastern side of an upper level ridge centered over the Red River Valley. Downstream, the east coast trough is forecast to pinch off and drift southward over the Gulf of Mexico. This feature will gradually slide west through the short term, which with the cooler upper levels could bring an uptick of showers and storms, especially over the Gulf Waters through Saturday. With the cooler upper levels associated with the drop in heights and thicknesses, think there could be a small hail potential with the more robust updrafts on Saturday.
Another good night of radiational cooling is in progress, with our typical cool spots and valleys in the upper 40s to lower 50s, while the ridgetops are in the lower-mid 60s. For today, upper level ridging will continue to increase across the region with the surface level flow turning to the southwest yielding a better return flow pattern. As a result, lows tonight will be a bit warmer with readings in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Dry weather continues through the weekend with hot temperatures returning Saturday as upper ridging over the southern Plains expands eastward.
An axis of higher theta-E was shifting west with this trough, while ridging along the lee of the Appalachians was now building into GA and east AL. As such, morning lows should dip to around 60 to the lower 60s east, with upper 60s west. (Friday through Saturday night) The aforementioned upper trough will continue to shift east off the Atlantic coast as upper ridging expands east into the MS River Valley and eventually into the deep south. With lower humidity, overnight lows will still be on the cooler side, dropping into the 60s each night.
1253 AM EDT Fri Aug 23 2024 High pressure over Ohio will move slowly east across Pennsylvania Friday and then settle along the Middle Atlantic Coast over the weekend. Another short wave trough currently over MN and Manitoba will turn southeast across the Great Lakes and keep the very warm air well southwest of the Upper Ohio Valley.
1106 PM CDT Thu Aug 22 2024 (This evening through Friday Night) Ridging should persist over the state through the end of the work week. The deterministic NBM high temperatures on Friday look fairly reasonable, depicting a slot of cooler temperatures in areas of higher cloud cover/rain chances, as some bias corrected models have caught onto. Still, this would be rather cool compared to previous forecast, so I opted to keep temperatures slightly warmer, as to ease into these changes.
310 AM EDT Fri Aug 23 2024 High pressure along with cooler and drier air persists into the weekend.
(Today and tonight) Water Vapor imagery currently shows the upper level high dominating over the great Lone Star State early this morning. By this afternoon the upper level ridge and high pressure will track slightly eastward, leading to a slight decrease in height values this afternoon.
It is difficult to tell how dense the high cirrus will be, but some forecast soundings from the GFS suggest some dense overcast in the early afternoon. Nwly flow aloft will prevail across the middle and southern Atlantic states, around a high amplitude ridge over cntl NOAM that will remain anchored by an anomalously strong (~ +3 sigma) mid/upr-level anticyclone over OK. At the surface, modified cP high pressure will remain centered at 1025-1028 mb directly over the middle Atlantic, with associated light nely to ely flow over cntl NC Sat, followed by calm Sat night.
Aloft, a building ridge over the central plains remains and a weak trough over the Northeast supports dry cool weather across central NC today. As temperatures slowly fall over the next few hours into he upper 50s to low 60s, afternoon highs today will be a tad warmer than yesterdays with most of the area reaching the low 80s. Nwly flow aloft will prevail across the middle and southern Atlantic states, around a high amplitude ridge over cntl NOAM that will remain anchored by an anomalously strong (~ +3 sigma) mid/upr-level anticyclone over OK. At the surface, modified cP high pressure will remain centered at 1025-1028 mb directly over the middle Atlantic, with associated light nely to ely flow over cntl NC Sat, followed by calm Sat night.
1154 PM EDT Thu Aug 22 2024 Upper level low pressure crosses the area tonight through early Friday, followed by high pressure into Saturday night.
Moisture, surface heating, and cooler temps aloft will help fuel convection in combination with the inland moving sea breeze and later day boundary collisions.
High pressure over PA is extending ridging back toward southern lower MI. These factors should result in a warmer night than the last few. Although surface temperatures are around 3 to 5 degrees warmer than yesterday afternoon, RH values are anywhere from 5 to 15% higher as well. Lows will be cool, but around 5 to 10 degrees warmer than this past morning. A quasi-Omega blocking pattern continues to slowly move longwave midlevel ridging across the Central U.
The deep upper level low spinning just offshore of the Pacific Northwest will slowly pass overhead today into tonight, then pass to the east on Saturday. Cooler temperatures, on the order of around 20 degrees below normal for this time of year, will continue through this time, along with breezy winds and numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms. As mentioned above, thunderstorms will accompany these showers, especially this afternoon and evening as the low moves in overhead, providing increased instability and lift. Then, ridging strengthens with temperatures again rising to above normal for the second half of the week.
Water Vapor satellite imagery this morning is beginning to show mid-level dry air moving into western Arizona, thanks to a West Coast trough moving inland. As this trough gradually moves through the Western states this weekend, we will see a drying trend develop. Wind speeds will see an appreciable increase in response to the trough with daytime gusts of 25 to 35 mph. A few storms could become strong to severe with the added wind shear environment, but the shear doesn't exactly line up with the higher instability that favors eastern Arizona.
Max temperatures will trend +4-8F warmer day/day with highs in the mid 70s to low 80s (+/-3F of daily climo).
633 AM CDT Fri Aug 23 2024 (Tonight through Saturday night) Mid-level ridge gradually shifts north/northwest today allowing for moisture to continue to increase into the region. A weak midlevel disturbance rotates around the ridge tonight, and cant rule out an isolated shower/storm but will keep PoPs low.
Water Vapor satellite imagery this morning is beginning to show mid-level dry air moving into western Arizona, thanks to a West Coast trough moving inland. As this trough gradually moves through the Western states this weekend, we will see a drying trend develop. Wind speeds will see an appreciable increase in response to the trough with daytime gusts of 25 to 35 mph. A few storms could become strong to severe with the added wind shear environment, but the shear doesn't exactly line up with the higher instability that favors eastern Arizona. ISO/SCT SHRA/TSRA 18Z-02Z, with the highest coverage north of a KFLG- KSOW line.
Last nights upper air plot had the area under S/SW flow aloft between mid-level high over west TX and upper low off the PacNW. Water vapor imagery this morning showed an upper level trof, mainly in the 400-300 mb area, over western Sonora MX. Today: As the above mentioned upper level trof over western Sonora MX weakens today as it lifts north it will develop an area of upper level divergence over the eastern half of the forecast area this afternoon with Tucson on the western edge. Saturday: A little bit of drying from the west under SW flow aloft with the PacNW upper low moving inland and the upper high centered over Oklahoma.
646 AM EDT Fri Aug 23 2024 High pressure will settle along the Middle Atlantic Coast this weekend. Fair weather will persist through tonight as an area of high pressure becomes stationary over the Mid Atlantic region.
951 AM EDT Fri Aug 23 2024 High pressure in place across the region with below average temperatures will gradually shift offshore into this weekend, yielding a return to near average temperatures. Afternoon highs will be warmer than the past few days, though closer to climo around the low 80s with low 70s for the Poconos. A trough that will eventually close off will approach by Saturday. At the surface, the unseasonably cool and dry high pressure will continue airmass modification while shifting offshore during this period.
613 AM CDT Fri Aug 23 2024 (Today through Saturday) Our region continues to reside on the eastern side of an upper level ridge centered over the Red River Valley. Downstream, the east coast trough is forecast to pinch off and drift southward over the Gulf of Mexico. This feature will gradually slide west through the short term, which with the cooler upper levels could bring an uptick of showers and storms, especially over the Gulf Waters through Saturday. With the cooler upper levels associated with the drop in heights and thicknesses, think there could be a small hail potential with the more robust updrafts on Saturday.
643 AM EDT Fri Aug 23 2024 High pressure along with cooler and drier air persists into the weekend.
Drier conditions are expected through the day, with only low chances of precipitation returning Saturday evening and night as a cold front moves through the region. Ahead of this cold front, relative humidities look to drop into the teens with breezy 15 to 30 mph winds over the plains.
Fortunately, our heat indexes will remain in the low to mid 90sF today.
These clouds are associated with a pool of higher moisture around 850 mb which has moved in from the lower Mississippi Valley overnight, and there is a northeast to southwest oriented gradient in moisture over the region this morning. Another good night of radiational cooling is in progress, with our typical cool spots and valleys in the upper 40s to lower 50s, while the ridgetops are in the lower-mid 60s. For today, upper level ridging will continue to increase across the region with the surface level flow turning to the southwest yielding a better return flow pattern. As a result, lows tonight will be a bit warmer with readings in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Dry weather continues through the weekend with hot temperatures returning Saturday as upper ridging over the southern Plains expands eastward.
620 AM CDT Fri Aug 23 2024 (Today through Saturday) High pressure will expand over the area today and Saturday, along with a brisk easterly flow during the day. With warmer temperatures and dewpoints mixing out in the easterly flow, relative humidity levels will drop in the mid to upper 20s to low 30s across the area. Moisture returns a touch in the southeast on Saturday, with only the northern two-thirds of the area seeing the low relative humidity.
(Rest of Today) Tranquil weather across the Tennessee Valley as a strong ridge of high pressure builds in from the west.
621 AM CDT Fri Aug 23 2024 (Today through Saturday) The upper level ridge has shifted a little to the east this morning. At the surface a stationary front is draped along the northeastern edge of the ridge extending from the Texas Panhandle to southern LA. The upper ridge will shift to the north tonight and Saturday and some height falls may take a few more degrees off the high temperatures.
626 AM CDT Fri Aug 23 2024 (Today and tonight) Water Vapor imagery currently shows the upper level high dominating over the great Lone Star State early this morning. By this afternoon the upper level ridge and high pressure will track slightly eastward, leading to a slight decrease in height values this afternoon.
536 AM CDT Fri Aug 23 2024 (Today) Warmer and more humid weather begins its return this afternoon as the upper ridge axis continues to shift northeast.
644 AM EDT Fri Aug 23 2024 High pressure in place across the region with below average temperatures will gradually shift offshore into this weekend, yielding a return to near average temperatures. Afternoon highs will be warmer than the past few days, though closer to climo around the low 80s with low 70s for the Poconos. A trough that will eventually close off will approach by Saturday. At the surface, the unseasonably cool and dry high pressure will continue airmass modification while shifting offshore during this period.
This change is courtesy of a stubborn upper high near SPS that will shift over OKC by Saturday evening allowing lower thicknesses to advect our way. Along with the slightly cooler highs, an improved ribbon of mid- level moisture (centered mainly near H7) will lift northward behind the high on Saturday and be over our forecast area during peak heating resulting in some low chances for afternoon showers/storms.
Temperatures along the Lower to Middle Keys are in the mid to upper 80s with rain cooled upper 70s to near 80 degrees for the Upper Keys.
353 PM EDT Fri Aug 23 2024 High pressure will remain in control for most of the weekend with weak thermal troughs setting up across the area each afternoon.
(This evening through Saturday) Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and early evening, as a weak disturbance rotates around the periphery of the upper level ridge. There remains some uncertainty on the extent of coverage this afternoon, which upper level ridging working to suppress convection.
With dry air across the area, low temperatures this morning were quite pleasant, ranging from the mid 50s in the NE mountains to the lower to mid 60s across the S. Otherwise, skies are mostly sunny with temperatures ranging from near 70 in the NE mountains to the lower 80s across central and NW GA. High temperatures on Saturday will be a few degrees warmer than today as a high pressure ridge builds aloft. Readings will range from the upper 70s in the highest terrain of the NE to near 90 across the SW corner of the area.
We are starting to feel the influence of the ridge aloft that is currently over Texas and Oklahoma. With that, today's conditions will be nearly identical as the last 2 days, except just a touch warmer - passing clouds with a warm, southerly breeze. Saturday looks more of the same with even warmer temperatures as the ridge continues to push east. For those who will be participating in any outdoor activities this weekend, dew point temperatures fortunately continue to stay on the lower side, ranging from the upper 50s to low 60s.
1254 PM CDT Fri Aug 23 2024 (Today through Saturday) The upper level ridge has shifted a little to the east this morning. At the surface a stationary front is draped along the northeastern edge of the ridge extending from the Texas Panhandle to southern LA. The upper ridge will shift to the north tonight and Saturday and some height falls may take a few more degrees off the high temperatures.
159 PM EDT Fri Aug 23 2024 High pressure in place across the region with below average temperatures will gradually shift offshore into this weekend, yielding a return to near average temperatures.
Cloud cover will also thin and clear out through the remainder of the morning and early afternoon as the upper ridge continues to expand into the region. Warmer and more humid weather is on tap for this afternoon, especially across eastern Oklahoma where a return to more southerly flow will allow more of a return of low level moisture into the area. Some places, especially across southeast Oklahoma could hit heat index values of 105+ for an hour or two later this afternoon, but will maintain holding off on a Heat Advisory at this time with the lower coverage and short duration expected before diurnal heating winds down.