Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
An upper ridge of high pressure will stay positioned over the southeast states. esp for the mountains and counties adjacent to the Blue Ridge.
1253 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025 (Tonight through Sunday night) As upper level high pressure settles in today, surface temperatures will also increase areawide. Most locations are expected to stay in the mid to upper 90's with a few areas exceeding those values and rising to the lower 100's. That being said, it may only feel 2-3 degrees warmer for these areas due to the potential afternoon cloud coverage dropping surface temperatures a few of degrees. Some thunderstorms may also generate across central portions of the Texas Panhandle due to high moisture lingering across the High Plains.
After fairly good coverage of convective rainfall today, increased subsidence near the high center should greatly limit convective covearage and help to enhance the heat. The greatest heat stress however should occur when the high center shifts to our west resulting in more of a west to northwest low level wind trajectory. /EC/ Another disturbance pivoting around the ridge will arrive in our region and settle as a weakness between ridging over the Southern High Plains and just off the Eastern Seaboard as we go into mid to late week.
234 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025 - Warmer today with isolated rain and storm chances across SE KS.
111 PM PDT Sat Jul 26 2025 A trough across the West Coast will continue cooler than normal weather through the weekend.
Forecast soundings do show a bit of dry air in the lower levels and current CINS are rather stout. Needless to say, if we could see some convection today it would likely become severe quickly but it's highly conditional upon if we can overcome the negative effects of the lower level capping and upper level ridging. Cold front looks to drop south through the area but we remain pretty warm and there looks to be some pretty good speed shear north of the boundary.
From synopsis, a high pressure cell centered near the Florida Atlantic Coast will shift westward into the Gulf through the weekend. Thereafter, generally a split ridge pattern will dominate, keeping breezes light out of the east to southeast.
A few rumbles of thunder are also possible across western SD - Drying out for the mid week 08z upper air analysis shows upper trof axis centered over the Rockies. Rain showers will continue to move through the region this morning as the cold front slowly makes its way across the CWA. With the recent warm weather and thus warm ground temps, accumulations should be minimal with perhaps an inch or so of slushy accumulation across the higher elevations. The wave moving through tonight will strengthen and transition to an upper low and dig to the southeast of the CWA. As it does so, weak upper ridging will build into the region for the mid-week bringing drier conditions to the CWA though temperatures will remain seasonable with highs in the upper 40s to 50s.
Broad troughing across the north central U. High pressure will be in place midweek with peeks of sun and temperatures right around normal.
146 PM MDT Mon Oct 27 2025 - Relatively benign day Tuesday as upper level ridging builds in.
227 PM CDT Mon Oct 27 2025 - A strong cold front will move through the region Tuesday night and bring the next best chance for rain.
237 PM MDT Mon Oct 27 2025 - Freezing temperatures are likely tonight in areas that haven't had a hard freeze yet, including much of Denver.
1257 PM CDT Mon Oct 27 2025 - Widespread light rain showers are likely late today through Tuesday mainly in northern Minnesota, with the highest rainfall amounts in the Brainerd Lakes area. High pressure over northeast Ontario and deepening low pressure over the Southern Canadian High Plains creates a deepening trough over the US Northern Plains. The trough pushes into northeast Minnesota and Tuesday afternoon, along with a decaying stationary frontal boundary.
159 PM EDT Mon Oct 27 2025 - Cool and Mostly Dry this Week - Cool and Mostly Dry this Week Model guidance is in good agreement with the evolution of the longwave pattern this week with upper troughing bringing cooler than normal temperatures and low precipitation chances.
Updated at 122 PM CDT Mon Oct 27 2025 - Strong frontal passage expected Tuesday evening, bringing much cooler temperatures, gusty winds, and elevated to critical fire weather conditions in its wake.
1204 PM MDT Mon Oct 27 2025 - Freezing temperatures are likely tonight in areas that haven't had a hard freeze yet, including much of Denver.
As the upper trough that brought the windy weekend weather to the region continues to move farther east, forecast guidance shows the NWS Reno County Warning Area (CWA) having a northwesterly flow aloft with a trailing upper ridge developing over the Western CONUS.
- A cold front comes sweeping in Tuesday morning, yielding breezy winds Tuesday and below-normal temperatures through mid-week.
- Rain returns to the area on Tuesday ahead and along a cold front.
The broad trough continues to sweep across the northern Rockies this morning. High pressure builds in for Tuesday, with much colder temperatures. H5 ridging builds across the Rockies midweek, deflecting the next system into Montana.
1220 PM CDT Mon Oct 27 2025 - Rain is forecast for this morning through Tuesday night, with the highest chances (55-85 percent) Monday into Monday night. This low pressure is forecast to move northeast through the morning and early afternoon, which will continue to bring rain to central SD, with higher rainfall amounts more specifically in north central SD. With the help of some cold air advection pushing on the stationary front, the front will transition into a cold front and start moving east this afternoon through central SD, and northeastern SD and west central MN tonight into Tuesday.
Additionally, the low clouds and patchy fog forming due to recent precipitation has put a cap on the amount of cooling last night and temperatures are starting above freezing. Above the low cloud deck in the valleys is mostly clear skies with scattered high level clouds moving in from the northwest over the northern part of our forecast area. It will be dry today as upper ridging builds into the area.
Updated at 1214 PM CDT Mon Oct 27 2025 - Showers will gradually taper off this evening with continued cool temperatures in the lower 60s.
A swath of moisture out ahead of a closed low advancing eastward at the mid-levels has supported isentropically-forced showers and embedded thunderstorms throughout the morning, serving to strengthen the cool dome.
205 PM EDT Mon Oct 27 2025 The upper trough will continue to drive our weather through the middle of the week.
The wind is blowing behind this cold front, too, with gusts ranging from 20 to 40 mph for most. The strongest gusts will be in the South Hills, eastern Magic Valley, and Snake River Plain with the "lightest" winds in the lower elevations of the Central Mountains.
- A strong cold front will move through the area Tuesday evening into Tuesday night accompanied by showers and thunderstorms.
High pressure will be the main story through the rest of the week with subtle differences in temperatures from day to day.
215 PM CDT Mon Oct 27 2025 -Another round of rain arrives tonight/Tuesday with a cold front. -Frost will be possible later in the week as much cooler air moves in. Early this afternoon an upper trough was digging southeast across the central Rookies. A closed southern stream upper low was located across the central and lower MS River Valley.
- Low pressure system exiting the region, will bring isolated showers to the Golden Triangle area today. These conditions were being maintained by a closed low noted spinning over western Tennessee and western Kentucky. Clouds will gradually decrease form the southwest this afternoon as the closed low shifts farther to the northeast. The sunshine this afternoon will help temperatures top out near normal but much of the northeast half of the CWA will remain cooler than normal today.
Early this morning water vapor satellite imagery and objective analysis show that quasi-zonal flow is still in place across the region with high pressure to the south.
A large expansive quasi-stationary area of high pressure centered over western Quebec Canada will continue to foster dry easterly lower-level flow across our region through Tuesday. Meanwhile, an upper trough currently traversing the northern Rockies will become considerably elongated across the Plains tonight into Tuesday as it becomes sandwiched between an upper ridge over the Upper Great Lakes, and a building ridge in the west. Ultimately, this will force the southeastward ejection of, and the deepening of, a closed mid-level low into the Ozarks Tuesday night, before shifting into the Ohio Valley and carving out a larger scale upper trough across much of the eastern states for the second half of the week. The weather across the area tonight will remain quiet with seasonable lows in the low to mid 40s (warmest in the city).
-A cold front will move through the region on Monday with a 30 to 50% chance for light rain to occur in the northeast combined Panhandles Monday night.
Breezy northeast winds and slightly cooler temperatures are expected along and north of the Mogollon Rim on Tuesday.
107 PM MDT Mon Oct 27 2025 KEY MESSAGES: - Snow showers linger through this evening, mainly in the high terrain, but also a few in valleys. There will be periods of clearing skies as a ridge of high pressure begins to build in, but widespread clearing skies will likely hold off until midday Tuesday. This ridge will briefly be in place on Tuesday, bringing dry, mostly sunny, and pleasant weather to the entire area.
An upper low, situated in southern Saskatchewan, continues to slowly move eastward this afternoon, with an H5 trough extending southeast into the Northern Plains. The highest probabilities for heavier rain continue to favor the Devils Lake region, as well as portions of the northern Red River Valley.
Temperatures will reach at/below freezing by Tuesday morning for most locations, supported by mostly clear skies, lower dewpoints, and a cold air mass in place. Freezing temperatures expected Tue morning.
6 to 10 inches of snow is possible, with locally higher amounts possible in the highest peaks.
609 PM CDT Mon Oct 27 2025 Updated at 548 PM CDT Mon Oct 27 2025 - Strong frontal passage expected Tuesday evening, bringing much cooler temperatures, gusty winds, and elevated to critical fire weather conditions in its wake.
-A cold front will usher in relatively cooler and drier conditions with breezy to possibly windy weather for the middle to the end of the work week. The Keys are in an in-between zone with ridging spilling southward through the Gulf, a deepening low off the Carolina Coast, and Major Hurricane Melissa south of Jamaica. While this activity has waned in coverage in recent hours, clusters of showers with a few thunderstorms remain, and new activity are bubbling up closer to the Lower and Middle Keys. Through the overnight, the Atlantic low will lift out as the Gulf ridge strengthen further. Cyclogenesis occurring off of the Carolina Coast, along with high pressure across the Gulf will result in light to gentle east to southeasterly breezes backing northeasterly through the overnight period.
839 PM MDT Mon Oct 27 2025 - Relatively benign day Tuesday as upper level ridging builds in.
659 PM CDT Mon Oct 27 2025 - Greatest rain chances shift to far northeast South Dakota and west central Minnesota from this afternoon through Tuesday night, with the highest chances (50-80 percent) tonight and (30-65 percent) Tuesday. The cold front, with a line of showers and a few embedded thunderstorms stretches from central McPherson and Edmunds counties down through Faulk, Hand, and Buffalo Counties at 00Z Tuesday. Watching a line of CU developing over central/north central South Dakota along a cold frontal boundary, where temperatures have warmed into the mid 50s to low 60s. Winds out ahead of a cold front, draped across Corson/Dewey Counties, are out of the south at 15 to 30 mph with gusts occasionally up to 40 mph. The cold front/showers will continue to move/develop eastward into northeast South Dakota and west central Minnesota this evening.
630 PM CDT Mon Oct 27 2025 Updated at 624 PM CDT Mon Oct 27 2025 - A cold front comes sweeping in Tuesday morning, yielding breezy winds Tuesday and below-normal temperatures through mid-week.
- Numerous rain showers with strong cold front passage tonight.
- Strong north winds and cooler temperatures are expected behind the cold front on Tuesday.
With the trough axis just to our west, plenty of deeper moisture and upper level support will help aid in additional shower and thunderstorm development today.
- Relatively benign day Tuesday as upper level ridging builds in.
630 PM CDT Mon Oct 27 2025 Updated at 610 PM CDT Mon Oct 27 2025 - Showers will gradually taper off this evening with continued cool temperatures in the lower 60s.
637 PM CDT Mon Oct 27 2025 -Another round of rain arrives tonight/Tuesday with a cold front. -Frost will be possible later in the week as much cooler air moves in. Early this afternoon an upper trough was digging southeast across the central Rookies. A closed southern stream upper low was located across the central and lower MS River Valley.
541 PM MDT Mon Oct 27 2025 - Freezing temperatures are likely tonight in areas that haven't had a hard freeze yet, including much of Denver.
- Much cooler temperatures and gusty winds today. WV imagery indicates a deepening upper level trough of low pressure digging southeast through the Central Plains. Near the surface, a strong cold front is pushing southeast through south central Kansas into northern Oklahoma. Otherwise, the SREF indicates the upper level trough evolving into a closed low as it digs farther southeast through the Central Plains today and into the Deep South later tonight, giving way to a north-northwest flow aloft across the Western High Plains.
Updated at 1136 PM CDT Mon Oct 27 2025 - A cold front will bring widespread rain to the Mid-South starting Tuesday morning.
Updated at 1228 AM CDT Tue Oct 28 2025 - A strong cold front to bring much cooler temperatures and windy conditions today.
- Cooler with shower chances returning to end the week into the weekend. High pressure remains in control across the Great Lakes, maintaining quiet conditions across the region. A modest east to southeast gradient will persist, keeping a light breeze in play that may make it feel slightly cooler at times, but will overall push afternoon temperatures into the 50s once again. As a result, temperatures will not fall as sharply as they otherwise could (like previous nights), with overnight lows generally in the low to mid 30s.
- Strongest cold front of the season moves through today.
Cold air in the wake of a recent storm system is currently resulting in widespread temperatures below freezing across a large portion of the forecast area. High pressure begins to establish itself over the western U. Currently, some of the coldest temperatures of the season are being observed across the forecast area with nearly the entire forecast area seeing temperatures just above or below freezing, with the obvious exception of lower Washington County. Through the remainder of today, ridging is expected to build into the Western U.
1259 AM CDT Tue Oct 28 2025 - A strong cold front will move through the region tonight and bring the next best chance for rain.
1232 AM MDT Tue Oct 28 2025 - Freezing temperatures are likely tonight in areas that haven't had a hard freeze yet, including much of Denver.
1225 AM CDT Tue Oct 28 2025 Updated at 1225 AM CDT Tue Oct 28 2025 - A cold front comes sweeping in Tuesday morning, yielding breezy winds Tuesday and below-normal temperatures through mid-week.
Updated at 306 AM EDT Tue Oct 28 2025 - A few storms possible south of Alligator Alley, ahead of a cold front, this afternoon.
Beneath the ridge, a mid-upper low off the coast of Maine is forecast to retrograde toward the eastern Great Lakes and phase with a weaker mid-level low currently over eastern TN/KY.
500 mb shows the 500 mb short wave lifted into southern Manitoba with an elongated short wave trough south thru the RRV. Main rain area is east of the 500 mb short wave trough over Minnesota and light rain will continue to advance north ahead of this slow moving short wave trough thru the day, eventually moving out of the far eastern fcst area late this evening as system hits the upper high over eastern Ontario and dries up as a separate 500 mb system develops and intensifies over Arkansas thru today.
- Mild temps again today with increasing humidity ahead of an approaching cold front. - A strong cold front will move through the area Tuesday evening into Tuesday night accompanied by showers and thunderstorms.
High pressure is building in to the area, bringing dry weather for much of the week. Potential for freezing temperatures in Trinity County tonight.
- A cold front moves across the area today bringing much cooler, below average temperatures tonight into the weekend.
1149 PM CDT Mon Oct 27 2025 - A strong cold front will move through the region Tuesday night and bring the next best chance for rain.
1201 AM CDT Tue Oct 28 2025 - Numerous rain showers with strong cold front passage tonight.
341 AM CDT Tue Oct 28 2025 * Cold front moves across the region today leading to widespread rainfall.
237 AM MDT Tue Oct 28 2025 - Chilly today with temperatures struggling to reach the lower 40s. - High pressure bring moderating temperatures through the rest of the week, with highs in the 50s and 60s. The H5 trough is quickly departing to the east taking cloud cover and precip with it. Cold temperatures will remain entrenched across the state, keeping temperatures much cooler than we've seen recently, only reaching the lower 40s for most areas. The rest of this week will be dominated by the building H5 ridge across the Rockies.
1231 AM CDT Tue Oct 28 2025 -Another round of rain arrives tonight/Tuesday with a cold front. -Frost will be possible later in the week as much cooler air moves in. Early this afternoon an upper trough was digging southeast across the central Rookies. A closed southern stream upper low was located across the central and lower MS River Valley.
1210 AM CDT Tue Oct 28 2025 - Greatest rain chances shift to far northeast South Dakota and west central Minnesota from this afternoon through Tuesday night, with the highest chances (50-80 percent) tonight and (30-65 percent) Tuesday. The cold front, with a line of showers and a few embedded thunderstorms stretches from central McPherson and Edmunds counties down through Faulk, Hand, and Buffalo Counties at 00Z Tuesday. Watching a line of CU developing over central/north central South Dakota along a cold frontal boundary, where temperatures have warmed into the mid 50s to low 60s. Winds out ahead of a cold front, draped across Corson/Dewey Counties, are out of the south at 15 to 30 mph with gusts occasionally up to 40 mph. The cold front/showers will continue to move/develop eastward into northeast South Dakota and west central Minnesota this evening.
This stretch of weather is brought to you by high pressure, which will be the flavor of the rest of the month.
1141 PM CDT Mon Oct 27 2025 - Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are expected along a cold front this evening. Further east, persistent cloudiness has kept temperatures in the low to middle 50s, along with instances of drizzle. For this evening, the primary concern will be a threat for precipitation in association with an approaching cold front. In addition to the precipitation, gusty northwest winds can be expected with the passage of the cold front. This is as upper ridging amplifies across the western US and deep troughing persists across the Great Lakes. Temperatures will remain near to slightly below average into late week, with highs generally in the low/middle 50s and lows in the 20s. Some moderation in temperatures is possible by the weekend, as the aforementioned upper ridge axis begins to slowly progress east into the Plains.
Updated at 135 AM CDT Tue Oct 28 2025 - A cold front comes sweeping in this morning, yielding breezy winds Tuesday and below-normal temperatures through mid-week.
141 AM EDT Tue Oct 28 2025 - Chance of Showers Late in the Week - Chance of Showers Late in the Week Surface ridging with dry and cool easterly flow continues the next couple days as the northern rain shield of a low tracking through the Tennessee Valley into the interior Northeast remains south and east of the forecast area.
* Another upper level low will move through Tuesday night and Wednesday bringing moderate to occasionally heavy rainfall. This morning, upper ridging over the Great Lakes region is working to break down the upper closed low moving across the lower Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. As the weakened low pushes off to the east of the region, the lower Ohio Valley will be between weather system today. Deep upper troughing will surge from the Rockies and into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, where it will form a closed upper low. Low temperatures are expected to be in the mid-to- upper 40s and some warmer spots in the low 50s.
728 AM EDT Tue Oct 28 2025 - Chance of Showers Late in the Week - Chance of Showers Late in the Week Surface ridging with dry and cool easterly flow continues the next couple days as the northern rain shield of a low tracking through the Tennessee Valley into the interior Northeast remains south and east of the forecast area.
- Freezing temperatures return to our low valleys Wednesday morning. - Temperatures begin to recover Wednesday and beyond thanks to high pressure and light winds. Tonight, the building ridge out west will start pushing the colder air and the northerly jet streak east across the Rockies. Winds return to slack conditions under the high too.
* Another upper level low will move through Tuesday night and Wednesday bringing moderate to occasionally heavy rainfall. A weakening upper level wave is now moving over the Appalachians, with an upper level trough upstream developing southeast across the Plains. This morning, upper ridging over the Great Lakes region is working to break down the upper closed low moving across the lower Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. As the weakened low pushes off to the east of the region, the lower Ohio Valley will be between weather system today. Deep upper troughing will surge from the Rockies and into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, where it will form a closed upper low. Low temperatures are expected to be in the mid-to- upper 40s and some warmer spots in the low 50s.
Overhead ridging will continue the cool, clear/mostly clear conditions going through overnight. A Freeze Warning is in effect for the OR Basin, with some sites reporting freezing/near freezing temperatures.
417 AM CDT Tue Oct 28 2025 - A cold front pushes into the area this morning with widespread rain lasting through much of the afternoon.
653 AM CDT Tue Oct 28 2025 - Strongest cold front of the season moves through today.
633 AM CDT Tue Oct 28 2025 - Mild temps again today with increasing humidity ahead of an approaching cold front. - A strong cold front will move through the area Tuesday evening into Tuesday night accompanied by showers and thunderstorms. - Strong northwest winds will bring much cooler temperatures into the region Wednesday and a Wind Advisory will be needed.
The highest totals over a half inch are now expected south and west of a Waterloo, to Cedar Rapids, to Burlington line. Coolest readings in the low 50s expected across the western half of CWA. Morning lows to drop into the lower 40s. NBM wind gust probabilities greater than 22kts are now in the 30-60% range, with the higher values south of I-80. In any case, breezy conditions with gusts up to 30 mph and cooler temperatures will be seen Wednesday with highs in the mid to upper 50s.