Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Our weather pattern this week will undergo little change as broad high pressure remains anchored in the eastern Pacific with weak troughing overhead. We'll slowly cool off through midweek as low pressure develops, but it'll stay warm throughout the week as daytime highs reach the 70s and 80s. In fact, latest satellite observations reveal a maturing cumulus field along the higher terrain of Alpine and Mono County, suggesting this is where the near term potential of thunderstorms is greatest.
(This evening through Tuesday) High pressure will move east through the state today with low and mid level winds out of the east. Tonight and Tuesday, the high pressure moves east of the area, stalling out along the east coast and western Atlantic. Winds could become breezy late in the afternoon Tuesday, but the area should remain rain free with the high pressure preventing more rain from moving or developing in the state.
High pressure returns Monday and will remain nearby all week with gradually warming temperatures. Key Message(s): - Calm high pressure in place with lingering wildfire smoke aloft. Following a weak front earlier this morning, high pressure will steadily build into the region through Tuesday morning. This haze has kept temps a few degrees cooler than guidance so we should only climb into the mid 80's today. Ridging is forecast to be established across the Carolinas by Tuesday, sitting atop a weak cutoff low over the Gulf.
The better lobe of forcing will lift into the area overnight, fueled by the low level jet and evolving upscale into an MCS. Many places in central to southern Iowa wills tart the morning in the 70s and end the day in the low 60s, falling to the 50s overnight.
Lows will be seasonable tonight (63-70F) & highs moderating into the low 90s (88-92F). Ridging at the sfc & aloft will keep the region dry on Tuesday.
1054 AM MDT Mon Jun 2 2025 - Dry today and much cooler with highs in the 60s and 70s.
We will wait for the next impulse to kick out ahead of the closed low over AZ before more showers and storms arrive late this evening and overnight. An upper level low will begin to impinge on the area late this evening.
(Tonight through Tuesday night) A subtropical ridge over Northern Mexico looks to strengthen and expand to the north through the period. While the bulk of the forcing looks to remain to the north of the CWA, this trough could support convective initiation along the front range of the Sierra Madre Mountains. PoPs have been left below 10% this evening due to the higher confidence in convection ending over Mexico.
PacNW will be under northwest flow between a ridge over the northeast Pacific and the base of a large trough across the Great Basin.
The expectation is for the cold front to continue trending south and east with more expanded development this afternoon. Near surface smoke continues to work southward into the area from the Red River Valley eastward, which could become more dense along the cold front. Cooler temperatures move back into the area later today into Tuesday as a cold front traverses the region.
That convection developed along a lifting warm front. We should see dry conditions on Tuesday, as high pressure settles over the region.
At 11AM, a broken line of isolated thunderstorms have formed along a slowly lifting warm front across portions of East Texas, just west of a line from Tyler to Clarksville. /05/ (Monday through Tuesday) Upper-level ridge to strengthen across the region during the short-term period allowing for mainly dry conditions areawide. Subsidence associated with the ridge to bring slightly warmer high temperatures in the upper 80s to lower 90s both today and Tuesday. At the surface, high pressure centered across the Appalachians into the ArkLaTex will maintain light southeast winds across most locations today.
214 PM EDT Mon Jun 2 2025 A weak cold front moves southeast of the local area this morning. High pressure builds into the area today, remaining in place through midweek with dry weather expected. A warmup is expected this week as ridge builds into the East Coast.
+ Into mid-week, temperatures will remain warm and humid conditions will remain, but cloud cover will increase with the approach of cold front that will become stalled out over northwestern Arkansas. THIS EVENING (MONDAY EVENING)/TUESDAY: In the upper lvls, ridging will remain in place over Arkansas during this period as a trof begins to dig across the Western region of the CONUS. At the sfc, a cold front slowly approaches Arkansas from the northwest. Expect weather conditions to remain overall dry for the majority of the state with a few minor exceptions; northwestern and west-central Arkansas will begin to see an increase of POPs with the closing proximity of the cold front.
Afternoon satellite imagery shows the center of today's weather maker, a low pressure system ripe with moisture, situated right over the Four Corners region.
1226 PM MDT Mon Jun 2 2025 - Much cooler today behind a cold front. A cold front moving through this morning and afternoon from the north will keep temperatures much cooler than yesterday. Highs east of the Continental Divide are 20 to 30 degrees cooler than yesterday, sitting mostly in the 60s. West of the Divide, highs are 10 to 20 degrees cooler, in the mid-60s to mid- 70s. With cooler temperatures today, high elevation snowmelt should slow. With the front fully through, highs Tuesday are a few degrees cooler than Monday.
300 PM EDT Mon Jun 2 2025 Broad area of high pressure will allow for dry conditions to continue through mid week. The approaching mid level trough and associated cold front will be slow to influence the region as the broad area of high pressure and limited moisture will keep advancing clouds at bay for now, but mention of some sky obscuration due to high level smoke will continue. Daytime highs on Tuesday continue to trend warmer underneath the amplified H5 ridge. A cold front will pass early on Sat and clear out any lingering precip in the morning. Temps start warm in the upper 80s Wed, cooling to the upper 70s by Sat and Sun and trending warmer to around 80 on Mon.
A slow moving cold front approaches late in week with a return to more active weather for later this week and the weekend. High pressure overhead will provide quiet conditions throughout the near-term period. Haze will be less today than recent days, but the sky will become a bit more hazy Tuesday as high pressure shifts farther to the east and winds aloft shift out of the west-southwest. Temperatures will reach the upper 80s across the lowlands, while much of the higher elevations still reach the lower to middle 80s Tuesday afternoon. The forecast will remain veiled beneath upper level ridging at the start of the period amid a slow encroaching disturbance from the west. As the center of the ridge nudges off the Delmarva coast, the westward flank of this feature will encourage the ongoing warming trend first noted for Tuesday.
Our main feature over most of this week will be an upper level low that is currently diving down into the Gulf.
and eventually links up with an Atlantic ridge. This high will move out into the Atlantic around mid week, resulting in a return to gentle to moderate east to southeast breezes.
135 PM MDT Mon Jun 2 2025 - Much cooler today behind a cold front.
Ludwig /Issued 451 AM MDT Mon Jun 2 2025/ - Meteorological Overview: Today there is an upper-level trough over North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana. Due to a surface cold front that pushed south from Canada yesterday evening cold air from Canada is moving south. Overnight tonight into Tuesday morning lower-elevation temperatures will approach freezing due to clear skies combined with the cold air.
136 PM EDT Mon Jun 2 2025 Broad area of high pressure will allow for dry conditions to continue through mid week. As the high continues to pull east and return flow develops, warmer daytime highs for today, even through the upper level smokey skies. Overnight lows will be noticeably milder in the lower to middle 50s -- nearly 10 degrees higher compared to the previous night. Daytime highs on Tuesday continue to trend warmer underneath the amplified H5 ridge. Ridging at the surface and aloft centered along the south Atlantic coast will continue to exert its influence across the region to start the period.
For tonight, expect warm and humid conditions with lows around the mid to upper 70s along and south of I-10 and in the low to mid 70s across the Brazos Valley/Piney Woods/North of Houston. The ridge is expected to weaken late today into Tuesday. The highest probabilities will lie generally along and west of the I-45 corridor (15-20%).
1138 AM MDT Mon Jun 2 2025 - Upper trough/cold front brings additional chances for thunderstorms today, some of which may be active near the NE border - Behind the cold front, gusty northerly winds will continue/redevelop today - Unsettled weather continues the rest of the week 08z surface analysis had initial cold front from northeast ND to KPHP to southeast WY. Main concern this morning revolves around upper trough. Today/tonight, upper trough moves into the northern Plains sending the initial cold front southeast of the CWA by 21z and secondary cold front into the CWA this afternoon with 2-4mb/3hr pressure rises behind it. With initial cold front southeast of CWA this afternoon, there will be a limited opportunity for active TSRA over south- central SD late this afternoon per 1KJ/kg mean MUCAPE.
* Cooler conditions late week with additional storm chances. Active weather pattern setting up over the next 36 hours or so as low pressure currently over the four corners region lifts northeast into the plains tomorrow. As the upper low moves from western to eastern KS tomorrow, expect cap to weaken and a second round of thunderstorms redevelops across the area. CAPE values look to re-destabilize to 1000-1500 J/kg along and ahead of a slow moving cold front across the area.
Strong high pressure on the front range has created a large ridge aloft which has helped to filter in some haze. As the pattern changes and that ridge breaks down over the next 36 hours skies should begin to clear out. Highs will be in the mid to upper 80s with overnight lows comfortably in the low to mid 60s.
- Warming trend continues, with highs in the lower 90s Monday afternoon. Low pressure in the High Plains is forecast to move east and reach MN/WI this afternoon. Once the aforementioned low pressure system arrives, showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop as early 2 PM across western Minnesota and progress eastward. Temperatures will be noticeably cooler over the next several days ranging comfortably in the 70s. Winds start S/SW but will shift to the NW behind the cold front. Showers and thunderstorms will develop along a cold front across western MN this afternoon and trek east this evening. For now I've kept them on the higher end until we get a better handle on how widespread the vsby impacts will be.
Issued by National Weather Service Columbia SC 229 PM EDT Mon Jun 2 2025 Dry high pressure builds across our region through mid week with temperatures near normal or a little above normal. As of 130 pm EDT Monday: Heights will rise through the period, as an amplifying upper ridge progresses across the region. with a relative anticyclone developing across the Carolinas. north of weak cyclone centered over the eastern Gulf.
115 PM EDT Mon Jun 2 2025 High pressure gradually shifts offshore through midweek.
(Rest of today through Tuesday) High pressure is sitting off to our east and a strong upper level ridge is building in from the west. We will be under the apex of the ridge on Tuesday and that will push highs into the upper 80s to possibly some lower 90s.
- Warming trend continues, with highs in the lower 90s Monday afternoon.
At 11AM, a broken line of isolated thunderstorms have formed along a slowly lifting warm front across portions of East Texas, just west of a line from Tyler to Clarksville. (Monday through Tuesday) Upper-level ridge to strengthen across the region during the short-term period allowing for mainly dry conditions areawide. Subsidence associated with the ridge to bring slightly warmer high temperatures in the upper 80s to lower 90s both today and Tuesday. At the surface, high pressure centered across the Appalachians into the ArkLaTex will maintain light southeast winds across most locations today.
- Rivers are running higher and fast today, but cooler mountain temperatures will slow snowmelt and result in decreasing flows by mid week.
- A line of thunderstorms is expected to develop along a cold front on Tuesday, moving eastward across the region between 3 PM and 10 PM CDT.
- Meteorological Overview: Broad upper level troughing and northwesterly flow will be the main theme this week, which will keep us slightly unsettled and, at least for the first half of the week, a bit on the cooler side. For the remainder of the week, expect isolated afternoon and evening showers (and maybe a thunderstorm) each afternoon, particularly over the higher terrain, with temperatures warming ever so slightly every day this week. A more significant weather system looks to move across southern Canada over the weekend, which may bring a cold front and possibly some more widespread rainfall to the area. These probabilities are generally low, around a 10-20% chance in and around Lewistown, Great Falls, and Cut Bank, as well as a few of the cooler locales in the Helena Valley.
924 PM EDT Mon Jun 2 2025 High pressure over the Ohio Valley will gradually build east towards the Mid-Atlantic through Tuesday.
634 PM CDT Mon Jun 2 2025 (Tonight through Tuesday night) A subtropical ridge over Northern Mexico looks to strengthen and expand to the north through the period. While the bulk of the forcing looks to remain to the north of the CWA, this trough could support convective initiation along the front range of the Sierra Madre Mountains. PoPs have been left below 10% this evening due to the higher confidence in convection ending over Mexico.
655 PM EDT Mon Jun 2 2025 High pressure over the Ohio Valley will gradually build east towards the Mid-Atlantic through Tuesday.
An upper ridge will remain over the east Pacific through the week with generally dry conditions and near to slightly above normal temperatures. Temperatures are expected to trend warmer for the weekend as the upper ridge moves onshore.
This low lingers overnight into Tuesday, with rain diminishing in coverage some tonight before redeveloping on Tuesday.
Surface analysis shows a strong thermal trough along the coast. This has resulted in gusty northeast breezes near and at the ridges in southwest oregon and western Siskiyou county. The thermal trough won't move much this evening and tonight, therefore gusty northeast breezes are likely to continue through tonight. An upper trough is moving south off the California coast.
Issued by National Weather Service Columbia SC 1041 PM EDT Mon Jun 2 2025 Dry high pressure builds across our region through mid week with temperatures near normal or a little above normal. Otherwise, heights will rise thru the period as an amplifying upper ridge moves across the region and a weak anticyclone develops across the Carolinas, north of a weak cyclone centered over the eastern Gulf. Precip chances will be lower across the higher terrain on Tuesday (< 20%) as the inversion strengthens.
Brusda /Issued 302 PM MDT Mon Jun 2 2025/ - Meteorological Overview: Broad upper level troughing and northwesterly flow will be the main theme this week, which will keep us slightly unsettled and, at least for the first half of the week, a bit on the cooler side. For the remainder of the week, expect isolated afternoon and evening showers (and maybe a thunderstorm) each afternoon, particularly over the higher terrain, with temperatures warming ever so slightly every day this week. A more significant weather system looks to move across southern Canada over the weekend, which may bring a cold front and possibly some more widespread rainfall to the area. These probabilities are generally low, around a 10-20% chance in and around Lewistown, Great Falls, and Cut Bank, as well as a few of the cooler locales in the Helena Valley.
Cooler airmass moves in on Tuesday, keeping highs in the mid 60s to low 70s.
721 PM EDT Mon Jun 2 2025 Broad area of high pressure will allow for dry conditions to continue through mid week. The approaching mid level trough and associated cold front will be slow to influence the region as the broad area of high pressure and limited moisture will keep advancing clouds at bay for now, but mention of some sky obscuration due to high level smoke will continue. Daytime highs on Tuesday continue to trend warmer underneath the amplified H5 ridge. A cold front will pass early on Sat and clear out any lingering precip in the morning. Temps start warm in the upper 80s Wed, cooling to the upper 70s by Sat and Sun and trending warmer to around 80 on Mon.
Carrying slight chance PoPs through 06Z to cover any potential redevelopment in the warm, moist airmass in the wake of the warm front passage. The latest short range guidance keeps temperatures on track for lows in the lower 70s across the majority of the region, save for a few upper 60s north and east. That convection developed along a lifting warm front. We should see dry conditions on Tuesday, as high pressure settles over the region.
354 PM MDT Mon Jun 2 2025 - Much cooler today behind a cold front.
923 PM EDT Mon Jun 2 2025 Hazy skies from wildfire smoke continue this evening into tonight under high pressure. The high pressure is expected to remain nearby all week with gradually warming temperatures. Key Message(s): - High pressure in place with lingering wildfire smoke aloft. Overnight lows are expected to be seasonably cool, with lows generally in the lower 60s.
Lows will dip into the lower to middle 60s (coolest in DeKalb County).
615 PM CDT Mon Jun 2 2025 A southern stream trough over the northeast Gulf will become a closed low overnight as it slowly meanders over the eastern Gulf. Given its relatively weak nature, and quite a bit of dry air in place, not expecting much in the way of impacts from this boundary and trough, at least as we head into tonight. Expect mostly clear conditions into the overnight hours, with temps falling into the lower to mid 60s by daybreak.
604 PM CDT Mon Jun 2 2025 (This evening through Tuesday) High pressure will move east through the state today with low and mid level winds out of the east. Tonight and Tuesday, the high pressure moves east of the area, stalling out along the east coast and western Atlantic. Winds could become breezy late in the afternoon Tuesday, but the area should remain rain free with the high pressure preventing more rain from moving or developing in the state.
812 PM MDT Mon Jun 2 2025 - Dry today and much cooler with highs in the 60s and 70s.
Issued by National Weather Service Columbia SC 755 PM EDT Mon Jun 2 2025 Dry high pressure builds across our region through mid week with temperatures near normal or a little above normal. Otherwise, heights will rise thru the period, as an amplifying upper ridge progresses across the region, with a relative anti- cyclone developing across the Carolinas, north of weak cyclone centered over the eastern Gulf.
Flood Watch for Flash Flooding is in effect this evening (Dawson, Buffalo, Sherman, Valley, Greeley Counties) - Scattered-widespread rain continues throughout most of the day on Tuesday, with highs noticeably cooler (lower to mid 60s).
Issued by National Weather Service Columbia SC 640 PM EDT Mon Jun 2 2025 Dry high pressure builds across our region through mid week with temperatures near normal or a little above normal. Otherwise, heights will rise thru the period, as an amplifying upper ridge progresses across the region, with a relative anti- cyclone developing across the Carolinas, north of weak cyclone centered over the eastern Gulf.
Large area of ridging will keep weather conditions dry with light and variable winds (up to 12 knots). No VIS or CIG issues expected with the lowest CIGs being SCT skies at 25,000 feet.
910 PM EDT Mon Jun 2 2025 Broad area of high pressure will allow for dry conditions to continue through mid week. The approaching mid level trough and associated cold front will be slow to influence the region as the broad area of high pressure and limited moisture will keep advancing mid/high clouds at bay for now, but mention of some sky obscuration due to high level smoke will continue. Daytime highs on Tuesday continue to trend warmer underneath the amplified H5 ridge. A cold front will pass early on Sat and clear out any lingering precip in the morning. Temps start warm in the upper 80s Wed, cooling to the upper 70s by Sat and Sun and trending warmer to around 80 on Mon.
- Could see a brief return of Canadian wildfire smoke behind today's cold frontal passage. Storms have developed quickly over the last hour or so just ahead the lower level front, located at the time of this discussion from central MN stretching southwest into the NE Panhandle. A quick moving mid level wave/MCV moving along highway 14 is speeding up the low level front a bit this afternoon. Rain will gradually come to an end from west to east on Tuesday morning, leading to a cooler and marginally breezy day.
By late week, the low starts to lift a little farther north, but the current expectation is for the low to only make it off the coast of the Carolinas. This supports much of the Florida peninsula remaining in the upstream warm and humid fetch feeding into the center of the low, keeping higher rain chances in the forecast through much of the remainder of the work week. However, the highest rain chances and greatest accumulations in SWFL are likely over the next couple days. This highlights that the atmosphere will be capable of sustaining convection at nearly anytime. As the low pulls away later in the week, winds are forecast to become lighter, and gradually veer back to the WSW towards the weekend as showers and thunderstorms continue to develop across coastal waters at times.
At the surface, the ridging that we have been talking about the last few days is weakening and pushing EWD. In the upper levels, the main upper low currently along the ERN fringes of Canada will continue to push EWD through the short term. The upper ridge is expected to progress EWD through the short term.
Afternoon satellite imagery shows the center of today's weather maker, a low pressure system ripe with moisture, situated right over the Four Corners region. As the trough passes over the area it will provide large-scale light therefore we are expecting another day of scattered to widespread showers and storms.
This line will continue to move east this morning with the CAMS showing additional development ahead of it on the nose of the low level jet where the RAP is showing MUCAPES increasing to around 1000 J/kg this morning. A better chance will wait until later in the afternoon and tonight when model guidance is showing the upper trough currently over Colorado moving east across Missouri and Illinois providing some mid-level ascent over the area. The alignment of the front with the upper trough will bring the potential for training tonight. The axis of showers and thunderstorms will slowly push eastward tomorrow as the upper trough lifts to the northeast causing the front to stall over the CWA. The instability will be weaker tomorrow afternoon as will the deep layer shear with the trough lifting out.
(Tuesday through Wednesday) Mid-level ridge centered near Baja California Sur will build into Deep South Texas through Wednesday. Tuesday night will be warm and humid with lows in the upper 70s to the lower 80s.
Zonal flow with some weak troughiness across the northern states will keep temperatures near normal for the rest of the forecast period.
Water vapor imagery shows a closed low off the coast of southern California, this past weekend's low moving into the Plains, and a broad area of high pressure over the eastern Pacific and Mexico. The low near California will makes it way eastward over the next couple of days with the area of high pressure staying to the south through at least the weekend.