Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
630 PM CDT Mon May 19 2025 - Wet weather will become more continuous tonight as the main synoptic low pressure moves northeast, resulting in rainfall of 1-2 inches in most locations. - Conditional severe weather threat (level 1/2 out of 5) modulated by the location of a warm front tonight and tomorrow, with large hail and damaging winds the primary threats tonight.
809 PM MDT Mon May 19 2025 - Warmer and drier for the rest of the work week. The lower 30s forecast for the Palmer Divide warrants a Frost Advisory there from 3-8 am Tuesday. The rest of the work week will then feature mainly dry and warmer weather, although a few opportunities will still exist for a few showers.
Ridging continues across the waters for the next day or so with generally light southerly flow becoming westerly in the afternoons.
936 PM EDT Mon May 19 2025 A warm front will approach the area tonight and extend near the Ohio River on Tuesday.
316 PM MDT Mon May 19 2025 KEY MESSAGES: - Low pressure system will continue rain opportunities through Tuesday.
A large stacked low churning off the northeast Atlantic coast is keeping deep layered ridging aligned across the Bahamas and the Keys this evening. Meanwhile, upper level ridging spans the Gulf. Surface winds are light and backed easterly due to the position of the ridge and earlier day time heating over the mainland. Ridging will continue its rather long lasting dominance of our area through the overnight period. As a result, overnight lows will struggle to fall much below 80, while dew points will remain in the lower to mid 70s.
Still, residual boundary layer moisture, and cooling midlevel temperatures, will result in modest instability through this evening as the primary trough axis passes overhead.
A cold front moving through midweek brings additional chances for rain to the area.
pdf Pretty quiet and seasonably mild this evening with high pressure in control and generally below normal layer moisture.
830 PM EDT Mon May 19 2025 -Dry through Tuesday as high pressure builds. ranging from the upper 40s to near 50 along the Lake Huron shore, warming as one heads west, peaking in the lower 60s across the western CWA courtesy of downsloping.
The upper level ridge over the area will continue to weaken and move east as an upper trough approaches from the west.
625 PM CDT Mon May 19 2025 - Slightly cooler today and Tuesday.
816 PM CDT Mon May 19 2025 Tonight through Tuesday night: A severe weather event is expected to impact the forecast area from late Tuesday through much of Tuesday night ahead of an approaching cold front.
512 PM CDT Mon May 19 2025 - Cooler (60s and lower 70s), windy (gusts 35 to 40 MPH) and dry across the area tomorrow.
- Cooler and drier weather returns over the next couple days.
Precipitation chances return Tuesday night into Wednesday with the passage of a low pressure system. As well, temperatures are a bit warmer and instances of frost through dawn will be isolated at best over the northern counties. ---------------------------------------------------------------- Occluding low pressure will cross out of the Upper Mississippi Valley and into the Ohio Valley by Wednesday. Upper diffluence and falling heights in tandem with the low will support high confidence rain chances increasing overnight tonight and Wednesday.
Warm and dry conditions expected through Wednesday as high pressure builds into the eastern Pacific. As mentioned in the previous dicussion, cooler temperatures could produce some patchy frost in interior valleys of Trinity County, but cloud cover could be a hindrance. Stratus will become disorganized and scatter overnight into Tuesday as a ridge builds into the PNW. Wednesday still appears to be warmest day of the weak as high pressure continues to build.
Deep layer ridge continues to hold a grip across the region.
(Today and tonight) Ridging will maintain control of our weather today with temperatures remaining several degrees above normal. As the upper ridge moves east, the flow will become more zonal. A cold front will approach the area from the northwest late tonight bringing a chance for showers and thunderstorms to our northwest counties.
High temperatures will be in the low to mid 70s. Today: A broad and somewhat complex upper level trough/low (situated over the Rockies this morning) will progress east across the Central and Southern Plains this afternoon into tonight. Marginal instability and strong cyclonic shear vorticity (on the eastern periphery of the upper trough/low progressing east across the region) will foster the development of showers/storms in eastern CO and western KS this afternoon. A tight 850 mb height gradient on the southwest periphery of the low will foster 35-45 knot low-level flow over Nebraska and adjacent portions of Kansas, where unimpeded insolation and modest low-level cold advection will promote robust vertical mixing during the late morning and afternoon.
Despite how long these storms can survive through our area, models indicate that we will see some redevelopment along and ahead of a cold front passing through the area by later this afternoon and into the early evening hours across northern and central Louisiana and portions of south central Arkansas. Temperatures will remain in the lower 80s to lower 90s across the area, which is roughly around 5 degrees above normal.
133 AM EDT Tue May 20 2025 Stacked ridging over the region to keep the hot and dry conditions in place today with afternoon high temps in the 90s and heat index values around 100.
The highest totals (2-3 inches locally as high as 3-4 inches) will be in northeast Iowa, southeast Minnesota, and southwest Wisconsin. Wet from Late Tonight into Wednesday A 500 mb trough and 850 mb closed low pressure area will move into the area tonight.
141 AM EDT Tue May 20 2025 -Dry through Tuesday as high pressure builds. ranging from the upper 40s to near 50 along the Lake Huron shore, warming as one heads west, peaking in the lower 60s across the western CWA courtesy of downsloping. Aforementioned occluding cyclone will continue its eastward trek into Iowa and eventually Illinois by Wednesday, which will keep a concentrated corridor of moisture transport.
However, rain chances will increase over the latter half of the week with temperatures trend cooler again. Locally cooler temperatures into the mid 30s are forecast in far northern Essex County Vermont, which may need to be monitored for the beginning of the frost season for the Adirondacks and Northeast Kingdom.
Very strong synoptic scale lift from a negatively-tilted trough over the central CONUS is causing cyclogenesis over IA. In turn, a large stratiform precipitation shield is currently forming north and northeast of the low. By Wednesday morning, the low will be in the Lower Great Lakes region. Meanwhile, guidance shows the band of rain (originally associated with the low) being left over MN/WI. The highest rainfall amounts within the guidance is mostly centered over south-central MN.
- Trends show a cold front moving through Tuesday night and into Wednesday morning that will bring a chance for rain along with the cooler nights and less humid days through the later half of the week.
As the low moves into the region this morning there remains a strong pressure gradient as the high is pushed eastward. - Rain lingers through tomorrow Winds will slight with the heaviest rain showers and the area becomes more stable and light rain will persist through tomorrow as the low cycles through the Mid Atlantic.
1239 AM CDT Tue May 20 2025 - Cooler (60s and lower 70s), windy (gusts 35 to 40 MPH) and dry across the area tomorrow.
TODAY (TUESDAY): At H500, a closed low will be present over the Mid-West region of the CONUS and eject through the base of the trof. At the sfc, a cold front will be pushing from west to east across the state during the day. It is along and ahead of this cold front as it enters into central Arkansas during the afternoon timeframe in which re-development of strong to severe thunderstorms are anticipated to initiate and push eastward into eastern Arkansas and the Mississippi River into Tennessee and Mississippi late this evening. At the sfc, a high pressure center will move in behind the FROPA and provide us a day of dry and overall fair weather across the Natural State.
(Today through Wednesday) A negatively tilted trough is expected to move through the Central Plains and into the Midwest today. A cold front will move into North MS during the late afternoon, initially developing a broken line of storms. Clearing skies are expected for Wednesday as the front is to our southeast by the early morning hours and low level ridging builds in under generally zonal flow aloft.
259 AM EDT Tue May 20 2025 -High pressure continues this Tuesday along with increasing winds.
The bulk of the precipitation will be across Idaho and Clearwater counties and the higher terrain of northwest Montana with precipitation totals of 0. Snow levels will be ranging from 4500 to 6000 feet this morning, limiting snow to the higher terrain with little to no impacts expected at the mountain passes. A transitory ridge slides into the region tonight into Wednesday causing a respite in shower activity. Temperatures are expected to dip into the low to mid-30s in many of the valleys again on Wednesday morning, bringing an increased risk of frost, especially where skies remain clear overnight.
A dryline in our far western counties is seen early this morning with a cold front located over northern Texas. The dryline will slowly move east as the cold front progresses southeast towards our area during the early morning hours. Highs today will be slightly cooler in the north but still reach into the low 90s. Most locations except those in the far south will see slightly cooler temperatures tonight.
1259 AM MDT Tue May 20 2025 - Warmer and drier for the rest of the work week. The lower 30s forecast for the Palmer Divide warrants a Frost Advisory there from 3-8 am Tuesday. The rest of the work week will then feature mainly dry and warmer weather, although a few opportunities will still exist for a few showers. It will still be breezy and almost exclusively dry for Wednesday due to downslope flow and slight ridging aloft.
A cold front will move southeast across the terminals after 8z, switching winds to the northwest at 10 to 20 MPH with higher gusts. This line has been slow to progress eastward, and additional convection looks to develop on the back side of the line as the cold front eventually moves in from central KS later this evening.
132 AM CDT Tue May 20 2025 The upper level ridge over the area will continue to weaken and move east as an upper trough approaches from the west.
With the Tennessee Valley sitting underneath a mid- level ridge, dry weather is forecast for the rest of tonight. A cold front to its south will sweep across the MS/TN River Valleys during the afternoon and evening hours. Ahead of the approaching cold front, a very unstable airmass with 2000-3000 J/kg and 50 kts of deep layer shear indicate the potential for severe storms. The tornado threat appears greatest during the evening hours as the low level jet ramps up across NW AL and intensifying the low level shear. Behind the cold front, a slightly cooler and drier airmass begins to filter into the area. Temperatures by daybreak Wednesday should drop into the low to mid 60s.
(Through Tuesday) Mid level ridging over the area tonight will begin to shift southeastward towards the Peninsula on Tuesday as the next frontal system pushes eastward across the Mississippi Valley. (Tuesday night through Wednesday night) A cold front will be approaching the region during the day on Wednesday.
- There will be a low end chance of funnel clouds with any developing showers through the James River Valley into the lower Missouri River Valley this afternoon.
104 AM CDT Tue May 20 2025 Tonight through Tuesday night: A severe weather event is expected to impact the forecast area from late Tuesday through much of Tuesday night ahead of an approaching cold front.
pdf Pretty quiet and seasonably mild this evening with high pressure in control and generally below normal layer moisture. A cold front will be swept into the area late Wednesday with scattered showers and storms developing out ahead of it.
- Temperatures will be cooler than normal with a gradual warming trend starting.
307 AM EDT Tue May 20 2025 Low pressure south of Nova Scotia will move east today as high pressure begins to push down from the north. High pressure will remain to our north tonight into Wednesday.
1226 AM CDT Tue May 20 2025 - Slightly cooler today and Tuesday.
- Cooler temperatures for mid to late week with drier conditions. Aloft there is a digging trof across the Rockies with a leading closed low over the northern Plains with a secondary embedded trof over Utah moving towards the Four Corners region. Across our area we have a warm front lifting north today and even though we have warm air advection in place, we should stay mainly dry this afternoon and evening. Strengthening mid level and upper level flow with help initiate convection along with the trof aloft and at the sfc passing through. The front will be through the area by Tuesday night with cooler temperatures for mid to late week. There could be a brief shower or two Wednesday night as we sit in cyclonic flow on the southwest edge of a trof aloft.
The upper low will move little in the next 12 hours or so thanks to a negatively tilted ridge of high pressure over the upper Midwest.
- Cooler temperatures for mid to late week with drier conditions. Trough remains across the plains this morning and will continue to shift eastward today. Cooler temperatures are also expected mid week and into the weekend.
Further to our west, more widespread convection is expected ahead of the cold front with numerous supercells that will present a tornado risk. While a low tornado risk will be present across most of the region, the higher risk appears to be across southeast Tennessee, generally south of Interstate 40 and west of Interstate 75, where the greatest combination of 0-3km CAPE and low-level wind shear will exist. Drier, cooler weather arrives behind the cold front late week. Warming trend into the weekend as trough axis shifts eastward.
Dry and much warmer weather is on the way for the rest of the week.
A cold front will push offshore Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night, followed by high pressure through the weekend. Tonight: Upper level ridging will lead to quiet conditions, with a stalled surface boundary remaining just to the north of the forecast area through the night. Tuesday: Weak frontal remnants over the Midlands and Pee Dee will meander farther to the north through the day as subtropical ridging builds aloft. Highs will reaching the lower-mid 90s away from the beaches. Overnight lows will bottom out in the lower 70s except mid 70s at the beaches and Downtown Charleston. Highs will warm into the lower 90s away from the beaches with lows ranging from the lower 60s well inland to the lower 70s at the beaches and Downtown Charleston Wednesday night.
/Issued Issued by National Weather Service Missoula MT/ - Meteorological Overview: Satellite imagery continues to show the upper level trough in place across the interior western US with an embedded mid-level low drifting aimlessly through South Dakota and another diving south into the Great Basin. The large scale upper trough elongates with its axis lifting northeast of the area tonight into Tuesday and a zonal/westerly flow following across the Northern Rockies through the rest of the work week.
The front will actually bring in some drier dew pts which will feel a lot more comfortable and cloudy skies will keep temps a few degrees cooler Wed as well.
525 AM MDT Tue May 20 2025 - Warmer and drier for the rest of the work week. The lower 30s forecast for the Palmer Divide warrants a Frost Advisory there from 3-8 am Tuesday. The rest of the work week will then feature mainly dry and warmer weather, although a few opportunities will still exist for a few showers. It will still be breezy and almost exclusively dry for Wednesday due to downslope flow and slight ridging aloft.
1002 AM EDT Tue May 20 2025 Low pressure south of Nova Scotia will move east today as high pressure begins to push down from the north. High pressure will remain to our north tonight into Wednesday.
A cold front to its south will sweep across the MS/TN River Valleys during the afternoon and evening hours. Ahead of the approaching cold front, a very unstable airmass with 2000-3000 J/kg and 50 kts of deep layer shear indicate the potential for severe storms. The tornado threat appears greatest during the evening hours as the low level jet ramps up across NW AL and intensifying the low level shear. Behind the cold front, a slightly cooler and drier airmass begins to filter into the area. Temperatures by daybreak Wednesday should drop into the low to mid 60s.
A low pressure system moves out of the Central Plains today and pivots toward Lake Michigan as it crosses into the Ohio River Valley. Between low pressure to our south and high pressure to our northeast, a tightened pressure gradient will maintain strong east to northeast winds through tonight. As the low pressure system to our south pivots later today and a low level jet intensifies, expect a band of light rainfall to expand northward and eastward further into the Northland and across northwest Wisconsin. The low pressure system will pull eastward away from the area with a second closed low retrograding across southeast Canada. This will reinforce drier air across the area, with slightly cooler air advecting into the northeast Arrowhead.
604 AM EDT Tue May 20 2025 Low pressure south of Nova Scotia will move east today as high pressure begins to push down from the north. High pressure will remain to our north tonight into Wednesday.
Most of today should be dry as the surface cold front will be across western Mississippi slowly working its way towards the area. With the approaching trough, southerly winds are expected to increase today and as a result a HIGH risk of rip currents will be possible across all area beaches. BB-8 Generally westerly to northwesterly flow continues late week into the weekend on the backside of the upper trough before upper ridging works its way into the eastern U. A somewhat cooler, drier airmass settles in to round out the week in the wake of the cold front Wednesday.
Well defined upper low between Pierre and Rapid City SD at 08z. This upper low will drift east-northeast toward Aberdeen by 12z Wed. In the next 24 hours a moisture feed to the east and northeast of the upper low will spread rain northwest across the majority of the forecast area.
On Wednesday, a ridge builds over the region so we see high temperatures increase by a good 10 degrees, and conditions remain dry for most locations. Freeze warnings remain in place until 0900 MDT this morning for southwest Colorado from Pagosa Springs to Cortez, where temperatures in the low 20's can be expected.
636 AM EDT Tue May 20 2025 (Today and tonight) Ridging will maintain control of our weather today with temperatures remaining several degrees above normal. As the upper ridge moves east, the flow will become more zonal. A cold front will approach the area from the northwest late tonight bringing a chance for showers and thunderstorms to our northwest counties.
High pressure will remain in control today, but the low level axis has shifted south to across south Florida/the Florida straits so we will see a quick shift to southwest with an enhanced west coast sea breeze moving well inland this afternoon. Stacked ridging over the region to keep the hot and dry conditions in place today with afternoon high temps in the 90s and heat index values around 100.
It will be dry today through Wednesday, with weak upper ridging builds in tonight through Wednesday. The upper ridging will result in milder temperatures for the interior Wednesday.
High temperatures on Tuesday will range from the low 50s to low 60s with cooler temperatures in the low 40s across portions of YNP. Other locations will be across the higher elevations of YNP and portions of the eastern entrance where accumulating snow is possible. A weak area of ridging is expected to build back in over the region for Wednesday leading to warmer and drier conditions. Lower RH values as a result of this ridging may lead to some near elevated fire weather conditions across southern WY.
834 AM EDT Tue May 20 2025 Precipitation chances return Tuesday night into Wednesday with the passage of a low pressure system. - Flood Watch potential increasing ---------------------------------------------------------------- Occluding low pressure will cross out of the Upper Mississippi Valley and into the Ohio Valley by Wednesday. Upper diffluence and falling heights in tandem with the low will support high confidence rain chances increasing overnight tonight and Wednesday.
627 AM CDT Tue May 20 2025 - Cooler and drier weather returns over the next couple days.
617 AM EDT Tue May 20 2025 -High pressure continues this Tuesday along with increasing winds.
222 AM MST Tue May 20 2025 Temperatures will climb over next several days as a ridge of high pressure builds over the region.
955 AM EDT Tue May 20 2025 -High pressure continues this Tuesday along with increasing winds.
119 PM EDT Tue May 20 2025 -High pressure continues this Tuesday along with increasing winds.
A few rows of cloud streamers are observed along the Lower Keys but are not advecting too far into the Gulf waters. Deep layer ridging will continue to control our short term forecast. Despite some of the clouds bubbling along the Lower Keys, rain chances will remain near nil today and into tonight. Subsidence is felt on nearly all levels of the atmosphere due to the deep layer ridging centered just off the west coast of Florida in the Gulf. Deep layer ridge continues to hold a grip across the region.
Issued by National Weather Service Reno NV 1250 PM PDT Tue May 20 2025 Warming trend and areas of Moderate HeatRisk in the Valley through the middle of the week as ridging aloft briefly settles in.
250 PM CDT Tue May 20 2025 - Shower chances of 20 to 50 percent continue tonight through Wednesday with the highest chances north of I-90.
Temperatures have risen into the 80s and this warm, moisture advection will continue to be amplified as deep troughing over the Central Plains begins to take a negative orientation with the axis extending southeast into the Tennessee Valley. The severe risk will extend into Central Alabama late this afternoon into the overnight hours as a cold front advances across the Lower MS River Valley. Most of the latest model solutions depict the storms either weakening and dissipating or moving east of the area shortly before sunrise tomorrow morning as the cold front passes through. Northwest flow will develop behind the front tomorrow which will finally bring a drier, and a touch cooler, airmass back to the region.
A transitory ridge will move into the region tonight and into Wednesday, resulting in a temporary decrease in shower activity. Temperatures are expected to dip into the low to mid-30s in many of the valleys again on Wednesday morning, bringing an increased risk of frostâespecially in areas where skies remain clear overnight.
216 PM EDT Tue May 20 2025 A warm front will near from the west late this evening, bringing showers and storms that will linger into Wednesday. After that, an upper trough builds south into the area, and keeps rain chances elevated through Tuesday.
1224 PM CDT Tue May 20 2025 - Cooler and drier weather returns over the next couple days. (The rest of today ) Cold front is just clearing the far portions of the local forecast area across northwest AR into extreme SE OK.
Most of this activity will remain subsevere -- with gusty winds being the main threat with this activity Our attention will quickly turn to the mid/late afternoon, as a more robust threat for severe weather develops along and ahead of a cold front. Additionally, hodographs indicating sufficient low- level backing of the winds to result in some curvature in the lowest 0-1 km.