Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
- Temperatures will begin to climb again, into the low to mid 90s across the area, by Saturday and continuing through the weekend. Dry conditions return Friday night into Saturday with highs pushing into the 90s, although it will feel more like 100-105 in the shade with dewpoints pushing into the low 70s.
1202 AM EDT Fri Jun 27 2025 - Yet another round of thunderstorms is likely Friday as a cold front moves through Lower Michigan.
Overall, another mild night is in store with morning lows only dipping down into the low to mid 70s. Another hot and humid day is forecast for the Tennessee Valley on Friday as high pressure remains centered over the Southeast. Afternoon highs will top out in the low 90s with dewpoints in the low to mid 70s.
(The rest of tonight) Scattered showers along with a few storms continued to spread eastward into/across eastern Oklahoma as of mid evening ahead of a weak upper level trof axis/wind shift slowly moving across central Oklahoma.
expect temps to be slightly cooler than in previous days.
(Tonight through Saturday Night) As expected, high pressure at the surface and aloft has weakened considerably across Middle Tennessee, but only isolated storms managed to form during the late afternoon and early evening today. This isn't surprising given the high rainfall rates we have seen with some of the storms.
Temperatures this afternoon will reach the lower to mid 90s with heat index values approaching 100 degrees in many locations. Once today's rain chances come to an end, the forecast becomes rather uneventful as high pressure builds across the Southern Plains. This should mitigate any additional rain chances through at least Saturday afternoon with temperatures a few degrees warmer compared to Friday.
Discussion: A weakness in the upper ridge develops across the region which will result in slightly lower max temperatures (although still hot and humid summer conditions) that will be lower than Heat Advisory criteria. In addition to the heat, this weakness in the ridge will support additional scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon. Convection will likely develop first along the higher elevations of the mountains and plateau between Noon and 2pm due to convergence along the terrain via differential heating.
Thunderstorm and severe wx risk will depend on timing of the sfc trof. Most recent NAM runs have been fairly consistent in the trough pushing eastward across northeastern WY and far western SD tomorrow morning, which will favor thunderstorms developing east of the Black Hills tomorrow afternoon. Low level southerly flow ahead of the sfc trof will advect moisture into the western SD plains with sfc DPs reaching into the upper 50s to low 60s. Temperatures tomorrow afternoon will climb into the 90s with very dry air west of the sfc trof. Another hot day on tap for Saturday as low level thermal ridge noses back into the region.
A closed upper low over southern Florida meanders north to over the eastern Southeast into the weekend. Adding in the higher rainfalls continuing for several days, will need to monitor for water issues over the southern half of the forecast area, especially our coastal counties. Temperatures see a bit of a downturn as the upper ridge over the Southeast weakens.
329 AM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025 Today and Tonight: Early morning satellite imagery/RAP analysis showed that our CWA has come more under the influence of an upper level low to our east vs the large mid level high to our northeast. The lower heights associated with the upper level low should allow for a greater coverage of convection today during peak heating. This scattered to numerous convection and associated cloud cover will help hold temperatures in the lower 90s and despite the continued high humidity, peak heat index values will only approach 105F and mainly in spots in our west along the Mississippi river.
500mb flow this afternoon is marked by a departing shallow mid-level ridge and a western CONUS/Rockies shallow trough. Tornado potential isn't anything to write home about with the low 0-1km shear, but a transition in the evening with that low level jet means there is a window in which discrete storms would have a tornado potential before becoming elevated. Storms continue east into the early morning thanks to the low level jet, although weak upper level support again means low confidence on coverage/timing.
1147 PM MDT Thu Jun 26 2025 - Hot Friday and Saturday, with isolated afternoon thunderstorms both days, mainly over the higher terrain.
Precipitation will taper off through midnight with lingering debris clouds as the upper level low near the central FL Atlantic coast migrates northward toward south GA through daybreak Friday. The prevailing low level flow will be from the southwest on Friday, with the Gulf sea breeze meeting the east coast sea breeze between the highway 301 and I95 corridors in the afternoon. The low level flow will have more of a component from the west Saturday, which will make the Gulf sea breeze more dominant, with it meeting the east coast sea breeze closer to the I95 corridor. An upper low will be overhead of the region this period, and will provide additional instability.
Hot and humid conditions are expected with the mid-upper level ridge still impacting the area.
A cold front will eventually work its way into the area on Friday. By Saturday, temperatures will have "cooled" down slightly into the low-mid 80s.
As temperatures rise after sunrise this low stratus drizzle/fog will clear. With high pressure moving in we should even see the sun for part of the day today, allowing temperatures to warm up into the 70s. As the evening goes on low level shear should improve along the nose of the low level jet and allow for the formation of supercells. As Friday's high moves out a warm front will pass through the Upper Midwest this weekend. This moist, unstable airmass with frontal forcing and a broad trough will provide a favorable environment for thunderstorms.
(Tonight through Saturday night) The short term forecast period will feature the continued breaking down of the 500 mb ridge or "heat dome" that resulted in a major and widespread heat wave over the Midwest and Eastern CONUS earlier this week. Overnight low temperatures tonight and Friday night are progged to be in the low to mid 70s. Meanwhile, daytime high temperatures Friday and Saturday are progged to be in the low to mid 90s, with the exception of 80s along South Padre Island and the Lower Texas Coast beaches. The highest probabilities will be located closer to the Lower Texas Coast and over the Gulf Waters.
(Today and tonight) Most of Texas remains between the western edge of a broad upper- level ridge, which is located over the gulf coast, and weak southwest flow over the south Plains. However, chances are a bit higher (~15%) for the northern Big Country where the axis of PWAT values are located and where some weak mid-level troughing will be located.
This weekend a ridge of high pressure builds over the region causing temperatures to rise 5-10 degrees above normal. For the most part conditions will remain dry although models are hinting at the return of moisture as a cold front moves from the Northern Rockies out over the Plains.
2) Upper ridging will guide warm and dry weather conditions over the region this weekend. Ensembles show upper ridging building over the western US this weekend, which looks to extend into Montana. Toward the midweek, ensembles begin to show the upper ridging beginning to translate east of the region which may bring renewed chances for showers and thunderstorms.
624 AM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025 Today and Tonight: Early morning satellite imagery/RAP analysis showed that our CWA has come more under the influence of an upper level low to our east vs the large mid level high to our northeast. The lower heights associated with the upper level low should allow for a greater coverage of convection today during peak heating. This scattered to numerous convection and associated cloud cover will help hold temperatures in the lower 90s and despite the continued high humidity, peak heat index values will only approach 105F and mainly in spots in our west along the Mississippi river.
It's the typical June Gloom pattern with some lightly warmer conditions for the interior than previous days. Temperatures will be slightly slower to cool this evening across the region this evening, and overall low temps will be slightly warmer for Friday night into Saturday.
637 AM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025 (Tonight through Saturday night) The short term forecast period will feature the continued breaking down of the 500 mb ridge or "heat dome" that resulted in a major and widespread heat wave over the Midwest and Eastern CONUS earlier this week. Overnight low temperatures tonight and Friday night are progged to be in the low to mid 70s. Meanwhile, daytime high temperatures Friday and Saturday are progged to be in the low to mid 90s, with the exception of 80s along South Padre Island and the Lower Texas Coast beaches. The highest probabilities will be located closer to the Lower Texas Coast and over the Gulf Waters.
- Very typical summer pattern will persist through the forecast period with daily afternoon thunderstorms, afternoon highs in the low to mid 90s and max heat indices from 98 to 106 degrees.
A little ridge noses in from the SE on Saturday this will smoosh the marine layer some and will result in less morning marine clouds in the vlys. The onshore flow will be a little weaker as well so the low clouds will clear quicker and more completely.
631 AM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025 A closed upper low over southern Florida meanders north to over the eastern Southeast into the weekend. Adding in the higher rainfalls continuing for several days, will need to monitor for water issues over the southern half of the forecast area, especially our coastal counties. Temperatures see a bit of a downturn as the upper ridge over the Southeast weakens.
Current temperatures generally range in the lower to upper 70s with Winchester, TN right at 70 degrees. Previous Discussion (for Today): Another hot and humid day is forecast for the Tennessee Valley on Friday as high pressure remains centered over the Southeast. Afternoon highs will top out in the low 90s with dewpoints in the low to mid 70s.
638 AM EDT Fri Jun 27 2025 High pressure heat ridge will weaken into the weekend. By the beginning of the weekend, the upper ridge will be weakening, as a weak upper level low develops over the southeastern states. At the surface, a low pressure system will be slowly tracking northeastward into Canada from the Great Lakes, with the associated warm front across New England and cold front extending back into the Ohio Valley, putting the local forecast area in the warm sector. High temperatures will be in the low to mid 80s west of the Blue Ridge, and low to mid 90s in the Piedmont.
927 AM EDT Fri Jun 27 2025 High pressure heat ridge will weaken into the weekend. By the beginning of the weekend, the upper ridge will be weakening, as a weak upper level low develops over the southeastern states. At the surface, a low pressure system will be slowly tracking northeastward into Canada from the Great Lakes, with the associated warm front across New England and cold front extending back into the Ohio Valley, putting the local forecast area in the warm sector. High temperatures will be in the low to mid 80s west of the Blue Ridge, and low to mid 90s in the Piedmont.
Upper trough axis and weak boundary are in place this morning with showers and isolated thunderstorms occurring in NE OK.
638 AM EDT Fri Jun 27 2025 (Today and tonight) High pressure at the surface will keep winds fairly light and variable outside of the daily seabreeze. An area of low pressure aloft is forecast to nose further overhead today, helping scattered to widespread showers and storms to blossom across the region this afternoon and evening.
Upper level trough over the area today will move east tonight. Upper level ridge building over Western Washington this weekend.
Upper level cyclonic flow aloft does hint at a good environment for this cloud deck's development, but is likely being hindered by dry air in the lower to mid levels seeing that showers are slow to develop in the area. Temperatures on land are in the lower 80s with dewpoints in the mid to upper 70s making for another moist start to the day. The upper level low associated with our recent more active weather pattern will continue to drift north out of southeast CONUS as mean layer ridging builds back in over our area. This pattern will hold for a few days until the next upper level low approaches the Keys from the east.
637 AM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025 - Very typical summer pattern will persist through the forecast period with daily afternoon thunderstorms, afternoon highs in the low to mid 90s and max heat indices from 98 to 106 degrees.
Heat continues to be a threat for today with the highs in the mid 90s, saturated dewpoints, and tonight we cool to the upper 70s. Moving into Saturday, the highs will be in the upper 80s with some areas reaching ~90. The heat is expected to be less oppressive than the previous few days as the ridge over the northeast moves eastward and the current high pressure will weaken.
The combination of the low sliding northward and the mid-level drying has allowed virtually all early morning shower and thunderstorm activity to quickly wane. Skies are generally partly cloudy across the Keys, with only passing low-level cumulus streaming in the low-level east southeasterlies and upper-level cirrus streaming northeastward from a disturbance near the Bay of Campeche. Broad surface ridging will rebuild over the Atlantic and support gentle to moderate east to southeasterly breezes across Florida Keys waters.
129 PM EDT Fri Jun 27 2025 (Today and tonight) High pressure at the surface will keep winds fairly light and variable outside of the daily seabreeze. An area of low pressure aloft is forecast to nose further overhead today, helping scattered to widespread showers and storms to blossom across the region this afternoon and evening.
A flat cu field is developing across Lyman and Jones county in the warm sector south of a weak warm front stretching west to east near I-90. There's an STP of 1 to 2 on the RAP13, as well, right around Pierre, so expect all threats to be possible with any storms tied to the warm front. The nose of the theta- e ridge is in south central ND.
(Tonight through Saturday night) As the heat ridge in the Eastern US continues to break down, seasonably warm and humid conditions are expected to continue in our area with little-to-no chance of precipitation tonight into tomorrow.
130 PM EDT Fri Jun 27 2025 A few stronger thunderstorms are possible Friday afternoon and evening as an upper low lingers near the forecast area. The slow moving upper level low that has regarded back across the Southeast the last few days is finally weakening and phasing with the southwesterly background flow.
Through the period an upper level low will be situated over the Florida panhandle and south GA/AL. As for temperatures, think that the highs will not get as warm as they could with the low overhead and lower thicknesses as well as the rain chances during peak heating. However, that said, average for late June is what is forecast, which even then the lower 90s are favored.
Otherwise, partly cloudy skies will continue this afternoon with highs in the low to mid 90s. The 850 mb thermal ridge will strengthen a little tonight and tomorrow, leading to slight warming, with lows tonight in the low to mid 70s and highs in the mid to upper 90s Saturday. No precipitation is expected Saturday with the upper ridge and slightly drier air bringing increasing stability.
pdf Southerly flow around the mid/upper level low pressure to the west of the region will continue to increase moisture levels with PWATs pushing close to 2 inches this afternoon. This combined with surface heating into the lower 90s and inland moving Gulf/Atlantic sea breezes will result in scattered to numerous showers and storms between the US 301 and I-75 corridors. Cooler air aloft will continue to support strong updrafts and isolated severe storms with damaging downburst winds and marginally severe hail at times over inland areas.
At upper levels, the area will remain sandwiched between high pressure around the 4 Corners areas and an upper low off the Central California coast. Through Saturday, H5 heights increase slightly as the upper high exerts a bit of dominance.
Tomorrow, the H500 ridge is progged to spread more across our region. Though not all HiRes models are showing it, we believe isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible in the southeast Texas Panhandle due to the placement of the ridge axis and favorable Theta-E profiles.
At the surface, a ~1008mb cyclone currently centered over Lake Superior will trek east-northeast into Ontario tonight, eventually working across Quebec on Saturday. Slightly cooler temperatures are in store for most of the area on Saturday behind the front. Highs in the low 80s will be possible for those close to Saginaw Bay. Pattern Synopsis: Ridging will continue to slide east of the region as troughing punches across the Upper Midwest late this weekend.
Attendant low level trof sits over northwestern SD into northeastern WY. Another hot day on tap for Saturday as low level thermal ridge noses back into the region.
1211 PM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025 (Today through Saturday) Tonight through Saturday morning, ridging continues to weaken as we go through the weekend. Generally, expect temperatures in the low to mid 90s with heat index values in the low 100s for most of the area.
These impulses coinciding with southerly to southeasterly surface winds will supply moisture and lift for rain/storm development mainly confined near the higher terrain. Guidance also has slow storm motions with these showers and storms for certain locations near the higher terrain.
A closed upper low meandering across the northern Gulf has brought increased showers and storms to the area this afternoon.
This general setup will remain more or less unchanged today as a weak upper low over FL/GA keeps a compact upper ridge locked in place over SE TX, resulting in the continued presence of southwest flow aloft and the associated monsoonal moisture plume over West TX.
1154 AM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025 - Very typical summer pattern will persist through the forecast period with daily afternoon thunderstorms, afternoon highs in the low to mid 90s and max heat indices from 98 to 106 degrees.
A surface Atlantic ridge stretching across Florida is maintaining gentle east to southeasterly breezes along the Keys this evening. Skies have been a bit hazy this evening with a large swath of dust riding into our area around the southern periphery of the ridge. Guidance suggests the lower levels is in the process of considerable drying and satellite imagery agrees. Atlantic ridging will remain in control through the overnight period. This flow will maintain seasonably warm conditions with lows in the lower 80s and dew points hopefully slipping a degree or two. The dominant ridging and drying taking place through the lower levels should help to minimize convective potential. Atlantic ridging stretching across Florida will maintain gentle to moderate east to southeasterly breezes on Keys waters overnight.
625 PM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025 A closed upper low meandering across the northern Gulf has brought increased showers and storms to the area this afternoon.
615 PM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025 (Tonight through Saturday night) As the heat ridge in the Eastern US continues to break down, seasonably warm and humid conditions are expected to continue in our area with little-to-no chance of precipitation tonight into tomorrow.
* Another round of showers and T-storms will arrive Saturday with a cold front driving southeast during the mid afternoon.
630 PM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025 Updated at 630 PM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025 - Clouds and scattered showers and thunderstorms will result in slightly cooler daytime temperatures over the weekend.
An upper level ridge will build into the area tomorrow for more sunnier skies.
Upper air analysis indicate 500mb ridge centered across the area, with water vapor imagery indicating 300mb ridge across the southeast states.
Otherwise, highs are expected to reach the lower to mid 90s over most places with upper 90s into 100 along the Rio Grande.
There are still a few different scenarios for how this event will unfold into the overnight, mainly dependent on the influence of the low level jet. The most likely scenario would be the current storms interacting with each other, becoming some sort of linear complex, and propagating along the instability axis/nose of the low level jet; if this scenario were to unfold then a severe wind threat would evolve across a portion of eastern North Dakota. The other scenario is that convection remains and evolves across the region, but the low level jet has less of an influence and the convection is weaker/elevated as it propagates into an area of weaker instability.
Upper low over the southeast becoming somewhat deformed as upper jets are starting to impinge on both the southern and northwestern regions.
(Today through Sunday) Weak ridging will remain over Texas while weak upper low remains over Georgia.
Afternoon heat indices will rise into the lower 100s in many areas each afternoon.
A closed upper low over southern Florida meanders north to over the eastern Southeast through the weekend and opens up.
Satellite imagery this early afternoon shows cumulus fields developing across portions of northeast OR and southeast WA as an upper trough axis passes over the region. Otherwise, surface observations indicate breezy conditions across the lower elevations. A broad, shallow upper trough will continue to sit over the PacNW today with shower activity confined to the WA Cascade crest through this evening. Tomorrow the upper trough will be pushed east as upper level ridging builds offshore. Upper level ridging will move inland and strengthen over the region Sunday, resulting in afternoon temperatures in the lower to mid 90s developing in the lower elevations and mid 70s to 80s in the mountains.
1147 PM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025 Updated at 1147 PM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025 - Clouds and scattered showers and thunderstorms will result in slightly cooler daytime temperatures over the weekend, particularly on Sunday.
UPper ridging across the western U. During the midweek, ensembles point to the ridge translating east with new low pressure system arriving from the west. Discussion: Look for mostly sunny skies today with high pressure over the region.
(Today through Sunday) Similar to previous days, scattered low clouds increase overnight with morning lows in the low to mid 70s across the area. Relatively quiet conditions are expected today as mid-level ridging will be overhead.
Winds are expected to remain below any headline levels but winds during the afternoon hours are expected to be in the 15-20 mph range across the lower valleys of the Snake Plain and Magic Valley. High pressure begins to build over the area tomorrow which will lead to a prolonged period of hot, dry weather for eastern Idaho.
In fact, the upper level ridge that was over the gulf coast yesterday is now centered over east Texas this morning and should remain that way through tonight.
1103 PM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025 Updated aviation portion for 06Z TAF issuance - Periodic shower/storm chances through the weekend with the highest chances (50-80%) Sunday afternoon, when a few severe storms are possible. The most likely window for any severe storms comes later Sunday as a cold front approaches. A mid-level trough will swing across the Great Lakes early in the week. A few showers or storms, mainly diurnal in nature, may develop in the vicinity of the trough with some destabilization beneath cooler mid-level temps. The mid-level flow transitions northwest through mid-week with indications of some broad ridging spreading eastward towards the end of the week. In general, though, as high pressure shifts east through the week, southerly flow/moisture is forecast to begin to increase with some increase in shower/storm potential.
- Strong to severe storms possible Sunday evening across northern Kansas along a cold front.