Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
610 AM EDT Thu Aug 15 2024 High pressure provides one more dry day as it exits, with a hot afternoon. Outside adjustments for a slightly cooler than forecast early morning, the forecast is on track. High pressure will provide one more day of dry weather today, as it exits the area.
Ahead of this boundary, temperatures warm into the low to mid 90s this afternoon with dewpoints remaining in the low 70s across eastern Kansas, leading to heat indices of 100-104 degrees for an hour or two hour this afternoon. The best chances will be across eastern Kansas where the higher moisture content resides. Upper-level flow becomes northwesterly Friday as the CWA becomes sandwiched between a trough over the Great Lakes and ridge across the southwest US.
Redevelopment of scattered showers today and tomorrow is possible as the low occludes and cold air advects in aloft behind the boundary. As such, the next 48ish hours will likely feel pretty cloudy and dreary, with highs in the low-mid 70s expected for most. Main swath of rain will continue to push eastward over western WI this morning, with more scattered showers developing this afternoon underneath the circulation of the upper level low. As the showers develop later today, ceilings will gradually rise into MVFR range then try to get back to VFR late this afternoon into early this evening before the lower stratus once again develops overnight tonight, especially for our northernmost TAF sites.
The front will retreat north on Friday while the ridge begins to re-strengthen, keeping triple digit heat and rain-free conditions going through the end of the work week. We are still on track to experience the hottest temperatures for this period this weekend as the mid/upper level ridge strengthens over much of the southern Plains.
The highest probabilities (30%) will be across southeast KS where we could see a few strong or severe storms with damaging winds and heavy rain through the evening hours before the focus shifts east of the area. Seasonable temperatures are expected today in the wake of the front with highs in the low to mid 90s. High temperatures will range from the lower 90s along the I-70 corridor to the upper 90s along the Oklahoma state line.
The ridge axis has become west-east oriented and now resides across southern Arizona. By late Friday, the ridge moves eastward and amplifies over New Mexico, as a trough forms in the eastern Pacific.
A surface cold front will enter the region from the northwest, roughly bisecting northwest Missouri and eastern Kansas by midday. Having said that, most models show the bulk of the storm development this afternoon and evening well ahead of the cold front across eastern and southern Missouri where there will be a slightly better moisture supply. How far south today's cold front pushes will be a factor in where storm development takes place.
1004 AM EDT Thu Aug 15 2024 * Stormy weather returns this week, with the highest chance for showers and thunderstorms being Thursday night and Friday. Skies are partly cloudy this morning with temperatures warming into the low to mid 70s. A notable west-to-east moisture gradient is in place across the Lower Ohio Valley, with the main LLJ/moisture transport axis still confined to our west across MO and IL. Tonight, as we sit in the warm sector behind the warm front and ahead of an approaching cold front, that's embedded in the upper trough, southern winds will continue to funnel Gulf of Mexico moisture into the Lower Ohio Valley. Dew points in the low 70s will continue working into the CWA from the southwest as precipitable water values approach 2".
Today into Friday, an expansive upper ridge will remain parked over the region. This ridge should begin to flatten out with time through late week. Beneath this ridge, ample sunshine is expected via large scale subsidence. Temperatures on Friday should be similar or slightly warmer than what is forecast on Thursday.
Today, the remnants of the trough continue moving east, nudged by the upper ridge developing in from the west. A few areas along the Rio Grande and in the upper Colorado River Valley will approach heat advisory criteria, but we'd like to save these products for warmer conditions anticipated later in the week. Although the trough is exiting the area, plenty of residual boundaries are knocking about from yesterday's activity for convective redevelopment, as well as a theta-e ridge in the boundary layer running SW-NE through the area.
An upper trough will continue to move across the Pacific NW region, while an upper ridge is positioned over the Desert Southwest. By Friday, another upper level low will move southward from the Gulf of Alaska and will remain off the Pacific Northwest. A combination of the upper low and upper ridge over the Desert Southwest will bring breezy to windy conditions over portions of central NV during the afternoon.
710 AM EDT Thu Aug 15 2024 (Today through Friday) A weak surface boundary will be moving across South Florida today as an associated upper level trough slips off the East Coast. High temperatures will remain in the low-mid 90s each afternoon ahead of the frontal passage, with peak heat indices in the 106 - 112F range thanks to the increasing moisture.
A ridge will build over the southwestern CONUS through the end of the week, maintaining temperatures in the low to mid 80s over the next several days. While model consensus isn't great at this time, we should see multiple waves traversing the upper ridge, bringing a few glancing blows of rain to the forecast area throughout the coming week.
729 AM EDT Thu Aug 15 2024 - Showers/storms through Friday - Rain chances persist into the Weekend - Showers/storms through Friday Clouds will increase this morning as low pressure over the northern Plains pushes an occluded frontal boundary toward the region. Initially, the lower atmosphere will be fairly dry. The occluded front is progd to move across the cwa tonight in conjunction with the leading edge of the upper trough and that will likely produce more storms. - Rain chances persist into the Weekend Upper troughing evolves into a cut off low over the Great Lakes region by the end of the week.
A low pressure system will move through Oregon and the Idaho Panhandle today. This activity should move north late this evening with high pressure building into the region for Friday.
High temps today largely the same as yesterday, maybe a few degrees cooler in the warmest locations.
457 AM MDT Thu Aug 15 2024 - Warmer with isolated thunderstorms today.
323 AM MDT Thu Aug 15 2024 - Warmer with isolated thunderstorms today.
A couple hundredths to a couple tenths of an inch did fall over isolated parts of the higher terrain yesterday. Discussion: Narrow upper ridge axis will be sliding overhead today, with sinking air over the wider region.
- Moderate to extreme risk of heat-related impacts is expected Friday I would love to tell you that the ridge is breaking down and we are going to have cooler weather for the next couple days, but I'm not a liar, so I can't.
* Stormy weather returns this week, with the highest chance for showers and thunderstorms being Thursday night and Friday. Tonight, as we sit in the warm sector behind the warm front and ahead of an approaching cold front, that's embedded in the upper trough, southern winds will continue to funnel Gulf of Mexico moisture into the Lower Ohio Valley. Dew points in the low 70s will continue working into the CWA from the southwest as precipitable water values approach 2".
611 AM EDT Thu Aug 15 2024 High pressure shifts east of the Ohio Valley today which will allow southerly flow to redevelop bringing in warmer temperatures and more humidity. Shower and storm chances increase late Thursday night into Friday morning when a warm front lifts through the Ohio Valley.
A upper level trough will track across the region helping to initiate some convection across the north.
545 AM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 (Today and tonight) Expect hot temperatures again today as a strong upper level ridge builds over the area.
High pressure over central PA will continue to move eastward. Strong high pressure center continues to slowly push eastward away from Michigan and into the NW US early this morning. Complex area of low pressure continues to develop to the lee of the Rockies over the Northern and Central Plains. deepening upper level trough axis will dig into the Northern Plains. with a closed upper level low developing over Minnesota tonight as the upper trough slides into the Upper Mississippi Valley. Temps will remain warm today with afternoon highs in the low to mid 80s. Low temps tonight will cool into the lower 60s.
Does this mean this it will no longer be hotter than a jalapeno's temper? I can't promise that based on this ridge, but historically speaking, "normal" high temperatures are typically in the mid to upper 80s by then so I say bring it on.
Upper level ridging still hanging around the will allow air temperatures to soar into the mid to upper 90s. Meanwhile, plenty of low level moisture in place to keep humidity on the high side throughout the afternoon that will max heat index values to range from 104F to 111F and thus, a Heat Advisory will be in effect through 8 pm local.
937 AM EDT Thu Aug 15 2024 High pressure shifts east of the Ohio Valley today which will allow southerly flow to redevelop bringing in warmer temperatures and more humidity. Shower and storm chances increase late Thursday night into Friday morning when a warm front lifts through the Ohio Valley.
Pattern/synopsis: High pressure extends from NY to NC, moving east. 1004mb occluded low pressure is over nw MN, with a closed 500mb low very slightly trailing. Overnight, as somewhat cooler temps arrive aloft, and moisture increases in the low levels, some skinny MuCape develops, especially in western areas. Pattern Synopsis and Forecast: The well advertised upper level low currently evident on water vapor imagery across the Dakotas will continue to make its way slowly across the area this weekend.
A ridge of high pressure bisects the mid state, so the atmosphere is still somewhat dry.
Temperatures trend warmer before a cooling back down this weekend. The persistent upper low over the Maritimes is finally beginning to reduce its influence on our weather, though we do remain in northerly flow on its western periphery. Upper level ridging will push east overnight. While some high clouds will spilling in east of the ridge axis, they will mostly stay west of the area through dawn, allowing for valley fog to develop once again. The upper level ridge will remain in control for Friday, with southwesterly flow pushing temperatures well into the 80s. 400 AM Update: The upper level ridge will slide eastward Friday night as deepening trough digs southeastward through the Great Lakes Region.
- Warmer weather with little to no impacts is expected for the weekend. Temperatures should drop into the 60s and perhaps maybe even some 50s overnight, warmest near the MN Buffalo Ridge where clouds linger longest. FRIDAY: The closed, stacked upper low near the International border sags slowly southeast through northern MN and WI on Friday. This area will remain cooler with limited sunshine, only yielding highs in the low to perhaps mid 70s.
Slightly warmer temperatures across the region today with only a very slight chance for a shower or thunderstorm over far southeastern Apache County. The ridge axis has become west-east oriented and now resides across southern Arizona. By late Friday, the ridge moves eastward and amplifies over New Mexico, as a trough forms in the eastern Pacific.
(This evening through Friday) Hot and dry weather will persist, as the upper level ridge continues to build across West Texas. (Friday night through next Thursday) High pressure will remain across the region through the next 7 days.
An area of high pressure remains elongated over the southwestern states, keeping a zonal flow in place. Zonal flow is more westerly, which blocks moisture from finding its way into the area and also brings in warmer air. The high moves little through Friday with dry and warm conditions continuing. As we head into the weekend, the high shifts to the east with a ridge developing over New Mexico.
227 PM EDT Thu Aug 15 2024 (This afternoon through Friday) One more day of typical summer cu field before we start to see things change as a front approaches and a deep trof sets up over the eastern half of the US. By late Friday, mid level ridge begins to set up across TX panhandle putting the Ohio Valley and SE on the NW flow side of the ridge.
224 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 Our area remains on the eastern periphery of an upper ridge centered over Texas and should be the primary influence in the near term. Dewpoints could be even higher tomorrow, in the upper 70s, with moisture pooling ahead of cold front which should push south later tomorrow.
Some of the high resolution guidance has thunderstorm outflows moving across the Treasure Valley late this afternoon and evening as the showers and storms weaken as they enter the valley.
(Rest of today through Friday) A weak surface boundary is moving across South Florida today as an associated upper level trough slips off the East Coast. High temperatures will remain in the low-mid 90s each afternoon ahead of the frontal passage, with peak heat indices in the 106 - 112F range thanks to the increasing moisture.
1251 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 (Today and tonight) Expect hot temperatures again today as a strong upper level ridge builds over the area.
1149 AM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 Temperatures across the Mid-South are in the mid 80s to lower 90s with dewpoint values ranging from the lower to upper 70s.
Temperatures rise steadily into the lower 90s, on track to reach the upper 90s this afternoon, with many sites reaching the century mark or just exceeding 100 degrees.
Being downstream of the western-most cutoff low pressure will lead to enhanced upper-level divergence and increased PoP chances across northern Montana on Friday.
With ridging holding tough, Heat Advisories will continue and rain chances will remain on the low side (and mainly for southern parts of the CWA in association with sea/baybreezes).
Upper ridging will generally remain in place through the near term period, retreating just a bit to the west today. Weaknesses in the ridge, combined with an abundance of moisture, will enhance any diurnally driven thunderstorms that are able to initiate along the seabreeze and any lingering surface boundaries. Similar conditions are expected for tonight, as high pressure maintains its hold on the weather pattern. Temperatures will be mild once again during the overnight hours, with clearing skies and temps falling into the lower 70s across our northern areas to the upper 70s along the coast.
150 PM EDT Thu Aug 15 2024 High pressure slides east of the Appalachians tonight. A combination of a warm front and cold front brings showers and thunderstorms, early Friday into the weekend. A strong low pressure system moves east across the Great Lakes late Friday. Meanwhile, a warm front and cold front will extend south and southwest to affect the OH valley and WV Friday and Friday night. Moisture quickly increases ahead of an approaching cold front with PWATs exceeding 2. Cloudiness and cooling showers will keep Friday's afternoon temperatures in the mid to upper 80s across the lowlands, ranging to the lower 70s northeast mountains.
The low levels are relatively dry to start the event so any precipitation through mid afternoon should remain light. - Showers/storms through Friday Clouds will increase this morning as low pressure over the northern Plains pushes an occluded frontal boundary toward the region. Initially, the lower atmosphere will be fairly dry. The occluded front is progd to move across the cwa tonight in conjunction with the leading edge of the upper trough and that will likely produce more storms. - Rain chances persist into the Weekend Upper troughing evolves into a cut off low over the Great Lakes region by the end of the week.
1236 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 (Rest of Today) High pressure to our SW will hold on for one more day yielding another afternoon of hot and humid conditions. The high pressure center will begin to deteriorate and retrograde as a low pressure trough pushes through the Great Lakes region. At the surface, the only impact for the remainder of today will be a low chances of showers and thunderstorms on the NE periphery of lingering high pressure in NE AL. The lingering high pressure will also support heat indices from the 94-104 degree range.
The ridge is expected to continue the hot weather.
1200 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 Temperatures across the Mid-South are in the mid 80s to lower 90s with dewpoint values ranging from the lower to upper 70s.
1230 PM EDT Thu Aug 15 2024 High pressure provides one more dry day as it exits, with a hot afternoon. Outside adjustments for a slightly cooler than forecast early morning, the forecast is on track. High pressure will provide one more day of dry weather today, as it exits the area.
A pocket of higher DCAPE has been noted across the Florida Parishes with values of 900-1000 j/kg where the low-levels have been able to mix out.
400 PM EDT Thu Aug 15 2024 High pressure will persist over the Carolinas today then shift offshore by late Friday.
The 15/12z 500 mb upper air plot showed sub-tropical ridge over the southern tier of states with one upper high centered over SW AZ and a second one central Texas.
Ahead of this boundary, temperatures warm into the low to mid 90s this afternoon with dewpoints remaining in the low 70s across eastern Kansas, leading to heat indices of 100-104 degrees for an hour or two hour this afternoon. The best chances will be across eastern Kansas where the higher moisture content resides. Upper-level flow becomes northwesterly Friday as the CWA becomes sandwiched between a trough over the Great Lakes and ridge across the southwest US. Gusty winds this morning should subside this afternoon as the pre-frontal trough continues east.
Upper level ridging to the west expand eastward on Friday with a small increase in progged heights and thicknesses pointing to high temperatures about two degrees warmer on average than today in line with MOS and NBM.
(Tonight through Friday night) A broad upper-level ridge across the southern US will remain the dominant feature through the short term period. The ridge will gradually build north along the Rocky Mountains as an upper-level trough moves across the Midwest.
* Stormy weather returns this week, with the highest chance for showers and thunderstorms being Thursday night and Friday. Skies are partly cloudy this morning with temperatures warming into the low to mid 70s. A notable west-to-east moisture gradient is in place across the Lower Ohio Valley, with the main LLJ/moisture transport axis still confined to our west across MO and IL. Tonight, as we sit in the warm sector behind the warm front and ahead of an approaching cold front, that's embedded in the upper trough, southern winds will continue to funnel Gulf of Mexico moisture into the Lower Ohio Valley. Dew points in the low 70s will continue working into the CWA from the southwest as precipitable water values approach 2".
The showers will dissipate some during the midday hours, but building instability could reinvigorate activity in the afternoon on the backside of the low along the I-35 corridor.
(This evening through Friday) High pressure over the southeast will allow for southeasterly flow at the surface through the day Thursday, while the upper levels remain northwesterly. High temperatures today will be in the low to mid 90s with heat indices in the triple digits in the west, closer to that high pressure. By Friday morning, the high pressure aloft will move eastward, putting the whole state under southerly flow.
303 PM EDT Thu Aug 15 2024 High pressure will keep our weather mainly dry through tonight. A low pressure/frontal system traversing the center of the country will approach Friday, resulting in increasing cloud cover from the west and an opportunity for showers and a few storms. Best chance for showers Friday will be west of the Blue Ridge, then into areas farther east for the weekend. clouds muting the highs Friday.
Instability is much less today since an upper trough has moved east of the area, but residual low level moisture and strong surface heating may allow for isolated storms to develop farther north and east.
(This evening through Friday) Hot and dry weather will persist, as the upper level ridge continues to build across West Texas.
Afternoon satellite shows an upper low working through Oregon and a departing ridge shifting into Wyoming with moisture filtering in through the upper level flow of the two features. The low working into Idaho will be responsible for another round of isolated to scattered thunderstorms again this afternoon through late tonight, with CAMs showing increasingly scattered thunderstorm coverage early this afternoon as the low lifts through northern Idaho. Showers will likely continue into the overnight hours across the E/SE Highlands with conditions trending drier heading into Friday behind the departing trough.
This does not help the heat issue though as these storms should develop later in the day to overcome the high trigger temps.
1037 AM MDT Thu Aug 15 2024 - Warmer today with less coverage of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon. Now will transition into a period of warmer and drier weather, But notice the modifier in the word, thank you all of my English teachers from many eons ago. Ridging will build northward over the area today and bring warmer temperatures. The ridging should help keep the morning dry, leading to a mainly late show in the later afternoon and evening. Friday looks like the driest day of the period as the ridge bulges north and pushes the deepest moisture out of the area. Temperatures will continue as warm with highs in the 90s returning the warmer spots.
1215 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 (Today and tonight) Today holds one last shot for rain chances as we remain under a lingering plume of monsoonal moisture and weak troughing sandwiched between two upper highs. The surface pattern meanwhile features a trough that remains draped from eastern NM through the eastern TX Panhandle ahead of a weak cold front that will stall in our NW zones later this morning.
Clouds that remain continue to billow beneath the low-level capping. Further west in Nebraska is convection in the base of the upper level trough and diffluent, left exit region of an upper level jet. The lowest 3km offer little in the way of curvature or elongation on the hodograph due to relatively weak, unidirectional flow. The better confidence lies in the far south and southeast portion of the state where a trailing cold front extends through the better wind field. Max theta-e differences over 25 C offer the chance for stronger col pools and damaging winds, but poor shear in the lowest 3km will limit the longevity of this threat for the storms.
High pressure at the sfc remains layered across the mid/southern Atlantic states, providing a light S/SE flow into the area. With the eastern fringe of an upper ridge pattern over the western Gulf/Mid South states, overnight lows look to fall mainly into the mid 70s/near 70F, under mostly clear/partly cloudy skies.
- Chances of showers and thunderstorms through the weekend As the low pressure system tracks into the region from the west through Friday, it will bring with it moisture, lift and instability. We will feature relatively high POPs trough the period as a result.
910 PM EDT Thu Aug 15 2024 High pressure will persist over the Carolinas today then shift offshore by late Friday.
Showers and thunderstorms ended rapidly this evening as a short wave trough in Oregon moved into eastern WA.
654 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 Our area remains on the eastern periphery of an upper ridge centered over Texas and should be the primary influence in the near term. Dewpoints could be even higher tomorrow, in the upper 70s, with moisture pooling ahead of cold front which should push south later tomorrow.