Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
132 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024 An approaching cold front brings showers and storms this afternoon into the weekend. Warm and humid air in place will keep lows tonight generally in the mid to lower 60s across the lowlands, ranging into the mid 50s higher elevations. For Saturday, abundant clouds and cooling showers will keep highs in the upper 70s across the lowlands, ranging into the mid 50s higher elevations.
352 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024 High pressure will provide continued dry conditions through tonight. The high will only move slightly east off the coast through Saturday, with a frontal system slowly approaching from the west.
1201 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024 High pressure will build across the area today into Saturday.
Broad upper ridging extends northeastward along the eastern seaboard through the end of the week. By Saturday, the upper ridge moves near the Bahamas while weak troughing moves through the southeast U.
1248 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 - Chance (20-40%) of showers and thunderstorms will occur this afternoon with the highest chances occurring over southeast MO. - Stronger storms expected tomorrow ahead and along a cold front. Though, cold front moving through north-central Missouri should help to clear out the fog/drizzle and improve visibilities as it continues to push south. Temperatures today will be in the mid to upper 70s even after the cold front moves through. As for Saturday, another cold front will push through the area bringing another chance (70-90%) for thunderstorms starting in the morning and continuing into the afternoon and evening hours.
This should result in less cloud cover leading to warmer temperatures over most of the CWA. A cold front will drop through north TX during the day.
253 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024 Atlantic high pressure will remain across the Southeast U. Enough lingering subtropical ridging aloft will hold along the coastal areas to keep those areas dry overnight, but there are some signals that a slight increase in the southerly could produce isolated convection over the Charleston County coastal waters early Saturday morning. Lows will range from the mid 60s well inland to the lower 70s at the beaches and Downtown Charleston.
This Evening and Tonight: High pressure will remain in control leading to light winds and mainly clear skies with lows in the 40s to low/mid 50s far southwest. Saturday: A cold front is forecast to track across eastern Iowa and northwest Illinois during the morning and afternoon. This will coincide with the passage of the cold front and could result in redevelopment of scattered showers and storms between 2 PM to 7 PM, right now favored for eastern counties.
The highest instability continues to be in southern Wisconsin. Despite this instability, it is not enough to promote any severe weather, even with the high amounts of shear, 30 to 50kts of 0-6km bulk shear.
122 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024 - Another round of showers and thunderstorms develops along a cold front that will track west to east across the area between roughly 2 PM and 8 PM this evening.
Look for winds to become light and variable overnight as high pressure moves across the region, then start increasing out of the southeast in the morning as the high departs. Dewpoints mixed down to around 40 this afternoon, so that should help our evening temps drop into the lower 50s quickly. A line of showers and thunderstorms along a weak cold front will be tracking into the western part of WI Saturday morning. The shear is on the higher end and will be enhanced by the lake breeze.
Issued 1032 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024 The low clouds cleared out of southeast WI and we have sunny skies. Drier air is moving in and dewpoints are dropping into the lower 40s. With high pressure moving in and lighter winds, a lake breeze is already getting established.
ACTIVE WEATHER RETURNS THIS WEEKEND AS A WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE AREA BRINGING SHOWERS, MOUNTAIN SNOW, ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS, GUSTY WINDS AND MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES. Our next weather system is approaching the area from the Gulf of Alaska and is expected to bring widespread rain showers, mountain snow, isolated thunderstorms, gusty southwest winds, and much cooler temperatures on Saturday. Model guidance shows an anomalously deep and cold closed low moving into the PacNW Saturday morning. With the track of the low forecast to move over northern part of California, there will be a risk of isolated thunderstorms to develop Saturday afternoon and evening.
Cooler than normal temperatures will continue through at least the weekend as a weak storm system moves into California.
Another mild night is expected as low temperatures cool into the low/mid 60s.
1004 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024 Atlantic high pressure will remain across the Southeast U. Late this evening: Through the overnight, the upper ridge axis will slip offshore and begin to get replaced by broad troughing. This make sense as this area will feel the trough aloft a bit more, and deeper moisture (~1.
551 PM MDT Fri May 3 2024 - A cold front will move through the region by this evening with another round of shower activity in the mountains.
Meanwhile, a relatively narrow upper ridge is aligned along the Atlantic coast. High pressure centered off the Carolina Coast will result in moderate to fresh easterly breezes on Keys waters.
Lows in the low to mid 60s. The axis of an upper trough is expected to continue sliding eastward, putting us in a southwest flow aloft regime for the next couple of days. At the surface, high pressure off the coast remains generally in place, allowing for southeast surface winds across the forecast area.
621 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 (This evening through Saturday) The low stratus cloud deck is beginning to clear out early this afternoon across the South Plains and far southwest Texas Panhandle. The low clouds will continue break across the remainder of the area this afternoon. With the early clearing, temperatures are quickly warming into the 80s while temperatures under the cloud cover remain much cooler in the 60s to lower 70s.
720 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024 Atlantic high pressure will remain across the Southeast U. Through the overnight, the upper ridge axis will slip offshore and begin to get replaced by broad troughing. This make sense as this area will feel the trough aloft a bit more, and deeper moisture (~1.
744 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024 Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop this weekend as due to several upper level disturbances and localized low pressure.
329 PM MDT Fri May 3 2024 KEY MESSAGES: - Night-time temperatures will drop below freezing in many areas tonight.
The highest elevations above 9,000 feet are expected to see 1 to 2 feet of snow.
1121 PM MDT Fri May 3 2024 - A cold front will move through the region by this evening with another round of shower activity in the mountains.
- High pressure Saturday brings warmer temperatures and dry weather. Warmer Sunday.
332 AM EDT Sat May 4 2024 (Today through Sunday) Much like yesterday, high pressure at the surface will continue through the period. The mid levels remain active today, but ridging should build by the end of the weekend. 500mb analysis shows ridging just offshore the SE coast. Ridging should briefly build across the CWA late Sunday. At the surface, weak high pressure will persist. The high res models are showing some organization to convection this afternoon across the eastern portion of the CWA. This is likely associated with the trough aloft.
Temps today will be modulated by cloud cover and the onshore flow which should keep most of SE GA and coastal NE FL high temp readings in the low/mid 80s while the rest of NE FL warms into the upper 80s to near 90 this afternoon.
(Today and tonight) A cold front has moved into far NW parts of the fa and will continue to move across parts of the area today. Showers and thunderstorms will continue to develop and move across the area through the morning hours with the highest chances near/behind the front.
242 AM EDT Sat May 4 2024 An upper level trough of low pressure move across the Mid- Atlantic Region this weekend resulting in Mostly cloudy skies, widespread showers, and a few thunderstorms.
Additional storm development across the area is likely later this morning with a cold front that pushes into the area.
307 AM EDT Sat May 4 2024 - Morning fog and low clouds give way to a warm Saturday with highs in the low to mid 70s. Despite the showers and clouds yesterday, high temperatures were able to sneak into the lower 70s across most areas. However, cool northeast flow off Lake Huron and lingering low level moisture looks sufficient to saturate the low levels, and deep enough moisture (5+ kft layer) to potentially trigger stray light rain showers, especially toward the southern Michigan border, as some of the deeper moisture over Ohio attempts to work back north late in the day, ahead of a weak cold front moving through from the western Great Lakes tonight.
Winds will start to increase ahead of an incoming low pressure system on Saturday, peaking on Sunday. The deep low pressure system set to really increase our winds this weekend is starting to move onshore the Pac NW and northern California this evening. Our tune will shift over the weekend, as a strong low-pressure system slides down the Great Basin region. Check back for any updates to the High Wind Watch and/or the Fire Weather Watch.
1145 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024 High pressure will cross the region tonight through Saturday, then exit across the Maritimes Sunday.
Discussion: Weak troughing across the region will continue to result in southerly flow and periods of showers and thunderstorms. The greatest coverage is also expected east of the trough axis which will place highest PoPs near our far eastern counties across the mountains near the TN/NC state line through southwest Virginia.
- Cooler temperatures today (low 60s), with middle and upper 60s on Sunday.
There is yet another risk for severe storms tomorrow, primarily south of the surface cold front and maximized across western portions of the Concho Valley and farther west across the Permian Basin, where SPC now has an enhanced risk.
For Saturday, the CWA remains in a region between ridging to the southwest and trough to the northwest.
1226 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024 (This evening through Saturday) The low stratus cloud deck is beginning to clear out early this afternoon across the South Plains and far southwest Texas Panhandle. The low clouds will continue break across the remainder of the area this afternoon. With the early clearing, temperatures are quickly warming into the 80s while temperatures under the cloud cover remain much cooler in the 60s to lower 70s.
High pressure remains centered near Bermuda and reaches southwest into the Gulf of Mexico. Temperatures are in the upper 70s across the island chain, a few degrees below the nearshore SSTs in the lower 80s. Water vapor imagery highlights a mid to upper level low digging equatorward through eastern Cuba. The center of the mean layer ridging is displaced to the west of Central America, although 500 mb heights near the Yucatan are near 590 dm.
319 AM EDT Sat May 4 2024 High pressure will remain over the area today and tonight.
221 AM EDT Sat May 4 2024 Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop this weekend as due to several upper level disturbances and localized low pressure.
The axis of an upper trough is expected to continue sliding eastward, putting us in a southwest flow aloft regime for the next couple of days. At the surface, high pressure off the coast remains generally in place, allowing for southeast surface winds across the forecast area. With the ridging aloft, instability and shear are limited, especially shear.
247 AM MDT Sat May 4 2024 - Mainly dry and warmer conditions are anticipated for the weekend.
- Cooler temperatures on Saturday (low 60s), with middle and upper 60s on Sunday.
This pattern will also ensure a significant cool down from recent days with fcst max temps in the 50-60F range or 10 to 25 degrees cooler vs.
Lows tonight will mostly be in the lower 60s. An associated weak surface wave will move across the southern Great Lakes while a trailing weak cold front moves east across our area during the day on Sunday.
Between cloud cover and precipitation, daytime temperatures are expected to max out in the 70s for the lowlands and mid 50s to low 70s along the mountains. Expect high temperatures in the lower 80s across the lowlands and the 70s in the mountains. The air will feel slightly humid across the lowlands with dew point temperatures ranging from 60-65 degrees.
201 AM EDT Sat May 4 2024 Atlantic high pressure will remain across the Southeast U. Late this evening: Through the overnight, the upper ridge axis will slip offshore and begin to get replaced by broad troughing. This make sense as this area will feel the trough aloft a bit more, and deeper moisture (~1.
340 AM EDT Sat May 4 2024 Atlantic high pressure will remain across the Southeast U. The forecast area will remain between a H5 ridge over the western Atlantic and broad trough over the western Carolinas and northern GA today. The mid-level trough is forecast to swing east over the CWA late tonight. High pressure will remain the primary feature at the surface.
This Evening and Tonight: High pressure will remain in control leading to light winds and mainly clear skies with lows in the 40s to low/mid 50s far southwest. Saturday: A cold front is forecast to track across eastern Iowa and northwest Illinois during the morning and afternoon.
Temperature wise, we will see near seasonal daytime highs over the weekend, warming into the low to mid 80s area-wide both days.
(Today and tonight) Our active first week of May continues today with more chances for severe thunderstorms, albeit not quite as potent as recent days thanks to a cold front that will slow south of our area this afternoon.
303 AM MDT Sat May 4 2024 KEY MESSAGES: - Night-time temperatures will drop below freezing in many areas tonight.
722 AM EDT Sat May 4 2024 Atlantic high pressure will remain across the Southeast U. In addition, temperatures at daybreak were 1-3 degrees warmer than the current forecast. The forecast area will remain between a H5 ridge over the western Atlantic and broad trough over the western Carolinas and northern GA today. The mid-level trough is forecast to swing east over the CWA late tonight. High pressure will remain the primary feature at the surface.
Early morning surface analysis still had a weak ridge nosing across our CWA from the east. Flow around this ridge will help maintain low level moisture while models show deep moisture increasing back across our CWA today from the west. Expect convection to be isolated to scattered as remnant storm activity in the high plains will be the main factor, as redevelopment will be possible in our area as heating occurs and instability increases by mid-day.
Dew points will be in the lower to mid 60s. Temperatures on Sunday will be slightly cooler owing to increased cloud cover and precipitation. High temperatures should climb into the lower 70s to near 80 degrees.
410 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024 - Cooler today and tomorrow, with highs in the 60s and dry weather expected.
(Today through Sunday) Much like yesterday, high pressure at the surface will continue through the period. The mid levels remain active today, but ridging should build by the end of the weekend. 500mb analysis shows ridging just offshore the SE coast. Ridging should briefly build across the CWA late Sunday. At the surface, weak high pressure will persist. The high res models are showing some organization to convection this afternoon across the eastern portion of the CWA. This is likely associated with the trough aloft.
635 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024 (Today through Sunday) Mostly zonal flow to slight ridging will stay around the area today and into Sunday morning. Due to the suppression from the ridge, it will help keep the showers and thunderstorms scattered at most. Although the ridge will help suppress things, the showers and storms that do form look to have quality instability to work with over 2500 j/kg of MLCAPE to work with.
96 (Today through Sunday) Much like yesterday, high pressure at the surface will continue through the period. The mid levels remain active today, but ridging should build by the end of the weekend. 500mb analysis shows ridging just offshore the SE coast. Ridging should briefly build across the CWA late Sunday. At the surface, weak high pressure will persist. The high res models are showing some organization to convection this afternoon across the eastern portion of the CWA. This is likely associated with the trough aloft.
716 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024 - Cooler today and tomorrow, with highs in the 60s and dry weather expected.
642 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024 (Today and tonight) Our active first week of May continues today with more chances for severe thunderstorms, albeit not quite as potent as recent days thanks to a cold front that will slow south of our area this afternoon.
905 AM EDT Sat May 4 2024 High pressure will remain over the area today and tonight.
629 AM EDT Sat May 4 2024 - Morning fog and low clouds give way to a warm Saturday with highs in the low to mid 70s. Despite the showers and clouds yesterday, high temperatures were able to sneak into the lower 70s across most areas. However, cool northeast flow off Lake Huron and lingering low level moisture looks sufficient to saturate the low levels, and deep enough moisture (5+ kft layer) to potentially trigger stray light rain showers, especially toward the southern Michigan border, as some of the deeper moisture over Ohio attempts to work back north late in the day, ahead of a weak cold front moving through from the western Great Lakes tonight.
Saturday is off to a beautiful start this morning along the Florida Keys as current temperatures are near the 80 degree mark, and are coupled with dew points in the lower 70s. Radar is showing a few light showers transversing the Lower Keys and nearby waters, but no significant impacts are anticipated. High pressure over the western North Atlantic will maintain moderate to fresh easterly breezes for the next several days.
Highs today and Sunday will generally range from the low to mid 90s, except for the 80s near the coast.
A significant low pressure system will move on shore near the California/Oregon border and track across southern Idaho Saturday night into Sunday night. Cooler temperatures and widespread shower activity is expected over the Northern Rockies during this time frame.
636 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024 (Today and tonight) A cold front has moved into far NW parts of the fa and will continue to move across parts of the area today. Showers and thunderstorms will continue to develop and move across the area through the morning hours with the highest chances near/behind the front.
549 AM MDT Sat May 4 2024 - Mainly dry and warmer conditions are anticipated for the weekend.
1046 AM EDT Sat May 4 2024 Atlantic high pressure will remain across the Southeast U. Convoluted pattern across the region this morning with a short- wave circulation moving northeastward into north-central Georgia and weak low-mid level troughing aligned through eastern Georgia into upstate South Carolina. The mid-level trough is forecast to swing east over the CWA late tonight. High pressure will remain the primary feature at the surface.
446 AM MDT Sat May 4 2024 KEY MESSAGES: - Night-time temperatures will drop below freezing in many areas tonight.
A closed low pressure circulation spinning off the coast of the California-Oregon border is quite prominent on satellite imagery this afternoon. This feature, along with an amplifying ridge east of the Continental Divide, will be the main players in the weather over the next couple of days.
Sunday night looks to quiet down and clear out as high pressure and dry air moves back into the region.
Another trough will keep temperatures cool for the second half of the week but conditions will remain dry.
However, coverage should be on the low side (30-40%) at best.
1236 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024 (The rest of today) Latest surface observations/analysis depicts a weak cold front positioned just south of the I-44 corridor in northeast OK. The cold front will continue to progress at a slow pace southeastward through the afternoon.
Highs are generally on track to range in the upper 80s to near 90 degrees over inland areas, and generally in the lower to mid 80s along the coast.
1255 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024 (Today and tonight) Our active first week of May continues today with more chances for severe thunderstorms, albeit not quite as potent as recent days thanks to a cold front that will slow south of our area this afternoon.
Sunday, a large upper-level trough moves toward the Panhandles, skies clear, 850mb temperatures warm, and surface winds turn southerly and breezy.
1216 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024 - Cooler today and tomorrow, with highs in the 60s and dry weather expected.
The high temperature for tomorrow is expected to be mostly in the 90s for the area, while parts along the coast and the beach will be in the upper 80s.
102 PM EDT Sat May 4 2024 - Morning fog and low clouds give way to a warm Saturday with highs in the low to mid 70s. Despite the showers and clouds yesterday, high temperatures were able to sneak into the lower 70s across most areas. However, cool northeast flow off Lake Huron and lingering low level moisture looks sufficient to saturate the low levels, and deep enough moisture (5+ kft layer) to potentially trigger stray light rain showers, especially toward the southern Michigan border, as some of the deeper moisture over Ohio attempts to work back north late in the day, ahead of a weak cold front moving through from the western Great Lakes tonight.
Additionally, mid-level ridging builds in with anticyclonic flow aloft.
With the low-level flow remaining out of an easterly direction due to surface ridging remaining in firm control, the Atlantic sea-breeze will propagate inland with ease. Forecasted afternoon highs will top out in the mid 80s to near 90 degrees across southwestern Florida with highs in the low to mid 80s across the eastern half of the area thanks to the prevalent onshore flow. The overnight lows will trend in the low to mid 70s along the east coast while interior locations dip into the mid to upper 60s.
Highs on Sunday once again range in the mid 80s to near 90 degrees inland and in the lower to mid 80s along the immediate coast and beaches.
312 PM EDT Sat May 4 2024 Showers will move northward into the region tonight ahead of a warm front to our south.
231 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024 - Cooler through tomorrow, with highs in the 60s and dry weather expected.
A cold front currently located near the I-20 corridor is moving south with cool northeasterly winds moving in behind. Convergence along the front will be a source for thunderstorm initiation and these storms will move northeast into the cooler air behind the front.
Discussion: The short wave trough that is over the region will exit tonight, followed by rising heights/short wave ridging on Sunday. Given the weak subsidence over our area as the short wave ridging builds in, expect less convective coverage with mostly isolated to scattered showers and storms especially in the afternoon.
Temperatures should be slightly warmer Sunday afternoon as the bulk of any precip remains outside of Middle TN.
1246 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024 (Today through Sunday) Mostly zonal flow to slight ridging will stay around the area today and into Sunday morning. Due to the suppression from the ridge, it will help keep the showers and thunderstorms scattered at most. Although the ridge will help suppress things, the showers and storms that do form look to have quality instability to work with over 2500 j/kg of MLCAPE to work with.
317 PM EDT Sat May 4 2024 High pressure will slowly exit to the east through Sunday.
The scattered clouds moving through are not doing much to block the sunshine, even though some measurable rainfall fell in the Lower Keys earlier today.
(This evening through Sunday night) The CWA remains along the northern edge of an upper level ridge where the flow is fairly zonal. Global models suggest that the trajectory of this trough will be slightly closer to the CWA than the one today.