Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
920 PM EDT Sat May 3 2025 Showers and thunderstorms remain possible tonight ahead of an approaching cold front. Slightly cooler temperatures and dry to start off the week, then a return of some rain showers expected after mid- week. Key Message(s): - Scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms continue this evening and into the overnight hours as convection ahead of a cold front sweeps through the forecast area. A cold front and upper trough will be moving in tonight, bringing another round of convection to the forecast area. Key Message(s): - Cold front moves through.
916 PM EDT Sat May 3 2025 A low pressure system and its associated cold front will slowly move to the east from southern Ohio toward the Appalachians through tonight and into Sunday.
Looking at the remainder of today, an upper level trough has made its way into the Mississippi Valley with a cold front currently extending through northern MS and southern LA. Extensive cloud cover across much of the region is keeping temperatures in the lower to mid 70s.
1004 PM EDT Sat May 3 2025 A cold front will stall across the Downeast area into Sunday.
While Lake and Modoc counties will see cooler daytime temperatures continue into Sunday, most other areas will see their high temperatures rise by 5 to 10 degrees. Early in the week, a progressive ridge moves over the area.
941 PM CDT Sat May 3 2025 The evening satellite imagery indicates that the weak post- frontal cu field has quickly diminished with the setting sun, leaving a crystal clear sky over the region on the backside of the closed low anchored over the Mid MS Valley. Sfc ridging over the Cntrl and Srn Plains this evening will linger overnight before drifting SE over the area Sunday, maintaining near seasonal temps and very pleasant humidity that is atypical for our area for early May.
937 PM EDT Sat May 3 2025 A closed upper low over western KY/West TN will continue to affect our area through tonight and tomorrow. Most of the night should be dry, but showers will increase again tomorrow as the upper low drifts east and cooling temperatures aloft result in greater instability. For Sunday, the upper trough will be across the Ohio/Tennessee valleys with jet streaks rotating around the low. Besides the showers and storms, the upper trough will produce unseasonably cool temperatures with highs about 10 degrees below normal.
Temperatures along the Island Chain are in the upper 70s with dew points in the lower 70s.
There could be some drizzle and isolated light showers overnight but coverage will increase again on Sunday with more energy wrapping around the upper low. (Rest of today through Sunday) More showers and thunderstorms today across middle Tennessee, as a cold front pushes into the area from the west. After the isolated threat today, some scattered showers will be possible tomorrow as well with the upper low centered over Kentucky, but not expecting any severe weather at this moment. (Sunday Night through next Saturday) As the upper level omega block breaks down early - mid week this week, weak ridging will increase our temperatures back to around normal values.
1024 PM EDT Sat May 3 2025 A slow moving cold front stalls near western parts of the region tonight and remains stalled across the region through Sunday. With convection waning during the overnight, the frontal boundary should retreat back to the north as a warm front overnight. Low temps will fall to the lower 60s in NYC and NE NJ, and into the 50s elsewhere.
* Upper level low will result in continued rain chances through the weekend.
612 PM CDT Sat May 3 2025 (Tonight through Sunday night) Short range CAMs show convection scaling back later today as a cold front pushes farther offshore.
(Tonight through Sunday) The cold front is approaching the I-85 corridor this evening. Behind the line of storms and cold front, the upper low will swing south into the TN Valley. Currently this low is is in central Missouri and sliding southward. The upper low finally moves east of the area by Sunday night.
623 PM CDT Sat May 3 2025 (This evening through Sunday Night) Mid/upper trough over the Mississippi River Valley will slowly crawl eastward, becoming more of a cut-off low over the Midwest. Meanwhile, another trough digs southward over W CONUS. Between the troughs lies a ridge over central CONUS.
637 PM CDT Sat May 3 2025 A "Marginal" risk for isolated severe storms will continue over the next hour this afternoon mainly for areas along and east of the I-59 corridor as the cold front pushes across the area. Weather conditions will become quiet this evening through the overnight period as global guidance shows the low pressure system hovering over the Mid Tennessee Valley Region to push east- northeastward towards the Upper East Coast. This will allow for the associated cold front to continue to track east across Alabama into Georgia.
756 PM EDT Sat May 3 2025 A cold front will stall across the Downeast area into Sunday.
640 PM CDT Sat May 3 2025 - Sunny to mostly sunny day today with light winds and high temperatures in the low to mid 70s.
739 PM EDT Sat May 3 2025 Showers and thunderstorms remain possible tonight ahead of an approaching cold front. Slightly cooler temperatures and dry to start off the week, then a return of some rain showers expected after mid- week. For this evening and tonight, a cold front and upper trough will be moving in, bringing another round of convection to the forecast area. Key Message(s): - Cold front moves through.
(Today through Monday Night) The cold front has moved through the region and now a much drier airmass has settled across the region. High pressure will remain in control with generally lighter winds and clear skies expected through the near/short term period.
325 AM EDT Sun May 4 2025 * Upper level low will continue to slowly move through the region today and Monday bringing cloudy skies and periods of showers.
258 AM CDT Sun May 4 2025 - Cooler temperatures will occur again today and tonight with highs in the 60s and lows in the 40s.
1157 PM CDT Sat May 3 2025 - Somewhat cooler and drier air will continue to filter into the region tonight and continue through Monday on light northerly winds.
243 AM MDT Sun May 4 2025 KEY MESSAGES: - Warm temperatures are expected today ahead of a cold front, which is bringing critical fire weather to parts of the area.
We continue to sit under high pressure with a low moving in from the west. As that low and cold front start to move into the area Monday evening, we will have a chance (about 20%) for some showers in north central SD. Upper pattern transitions from Omega block to ridge over a low block.
The eastern part of the CWA will still be on the northerly flow side of the ridge that is positioned just off to our west. Through Sunday into early Monday the ridge shifts a bit east with the entire CWA directly underneath the ridge with southerly winds as an omega block pattern sets up. As this low inches closer to the area through Monday morning, (centered over MT/ND ~12Z Monday) this will steepen up the pressure gradients across the CWA, mainly over central SD. Lows tonight will overall be warmer than last night ranging in the lower to mid 40s with models indicating the coldest temps over the James River Valley. Lows Sunday night will range in the mid to upper 40s to the lower 50s.
High pressure will remain over the region for most of Sunday, which should keep skies sunny through the day.
Discussion: The bowling ball of boredom, err I mean the upper low, has arrived at its stationary point today centered near Louisville, Kentucky. One fun thing about the low is its effect on temperatures.
152 AM EDT Sun May 4 2025 A closed upper low over western KY/West TN will continue to affect our area through tonight and tomorrow. Most of the night should be dry, but showers will increase again tomorrow as the upper low drifts east and cooling temperatures aloft result in greater instability. For Sunday, the upper trough will be across the Ohio/Tennessee valleys with jet streaks rotating around the low. Besides the showers and storms, the upper trough will produce unseasonably cool temperatures with highs about 10 degrees below normal.
1251 AM MDT Sun May 4 2025 -Breezy and mild today -Unsettled the first half the week, with a good chance of showers Monday night over western areas -Brief cool down mid week, then warming back up and mainly dry Longwave ridge will continue to shift east, supporting warm and dry weather.
125 AM EDT Sun May 4 2025 An upper level low to track slowly from the Middle Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley bringing cool, cloudy, and rainy conditions into the region through Monday.
1243 AM CDT Sun May 4 2025 (Tonight through Sunday night) Short range CAMs show convection scaling back later today as a cold front pushes farther offshore.
315 AM EDT Sun May 4 2025 A large upper level low will remain over the Ohio Valley and central Appalachians today into Monday morning. A surface cold front will push east through our region this morning.
* Upper level low will result in continued rain chances through the weekend. * Cooler temperatures and rain shower chances are expected to continue into tomorrow and Monday, with showers becoming gradually more isolated. This will result in continued light rain and drizzle chances under low cloud ceilings and cooler temperatures. The upper low will remain over the region on Monday, keeping conditions similar to the weekend. Another day of cooler temperatures, off and on showers, and overcast skies. Temperatures will be about 10-14 degrees cooler than normal. Monday night, the upper low will begin to push off to the northeast and bring rain chances with it.
Otherwise, a notably cooler night with temperatures falling into the upper 40s to lower 50s in most locations. A slow-moving cut-off area of low pressure will meander across the Ohio Valley on Sunday, with northerly flow helping to maintain the cool air mass. Wrap around moisture on the backside of this low will help to create some mostly cloudy conditions during the day and some low chances (10-30%) for light rain showers from the late morning into the afternoon hours. The cloud cover and cooler air mass will keep high temperatures well below normal -- with highs struggling to climb above the low to mid 60s.
(Today and tonight) The cold front is currently moving through the forecast area and will exit by mid-afternoon. Behind the cold front this morning, some low clouds and patchy fog are possible for a few hours near sunrise. Lows tonight will be in the lower to mid 50s for most spots.
As the low spins overhead and slowly drifts to the northeast our precipitation chances shift to the northeast as well.
1219 AM EDT Sun May 4 2025 A cold front crosses the area tonight, bringing temperatures back to near normal for Sunday and Monday under partly cloudy skies.
Issued 316 AM CDT Sun May 4 2025 Today through Monday: Northeast surface flow will continue today as region remains affected by large upper low centered over the lower Ohio Valley.
The force is strong with an upper level blocking pattern that persists for the upcoming week and brings a stretch of dry and warm weather to the region.
1210 AM CDT Sun May 4 2025 (Tonight through Sunday) The cold front is approaching the I-85 corridor this evening. Behind the line of storms and cold front, the upper low will swing south into the TN Valley. Currently this low is is in central Missouri and sliding southward. The upper low finally moves east of the area by Sunday night.
500 mb ridge is over the area today into Monday before a short wave trough moving east thru Canada flattens the ridge temporarily before it builds back late week Thu-Fri.
A short wavelength, highly amplified ridge will develop through the end of the forecast period, and will promote dry conditions for the mid south.
(Today through Monday) A relatively quiet Sunday is in store with surface ridging remaining just to the north of us keeping winds mainly east. We'll see a modest increase in dewpoints, though the more substantial increase is tonight into Sunday as the ridge shifts east and flow becomes more southeasterly.
1227 AM CDT Sun May 4 2025 - Cooler temperatures will occur this weekend with highs in the 60s and lows in the 40s.
147 AM EDT Sun May 4 2025 A large upper level low will remain over the Ohio Valley and central Appalachians today into Monday morning. A surface cold front will push east through our region this morning.
With that said, there is low chance of a few isolated showers across our northern counties as an upper level low tugs a few streams of H5 vorticity through the region.
Water vapor imagery depicts an upper low spinning over the lower OH and TN valleys. Another spoke of vorticity will drop southeast around the low into southern TN and north AL this afternoon. Highs should only reach the lower to middle 60s for most valley areas. A few upper 60s may be reached south of the TN River, while the higher Cumberland Plateau areas will not escape the 50s.
A large band of light to moderate rain north of the low, was shifting southwest over east central to SE IL this evening. 25 Scattered showers will continue to pinwheel across portions of central and southeast Illinois through Monday morning as we lie beneath a cut-off low. The latest trends in hi-res guidance have shifted the higher PoPs and heavier QPF further south, now focusing near and south of a Taylorville to Paris line where rainfall may eclipse the 2" mark in localized areas. While vicinity showers are forecast at any given time throughout the remainder of the weekend, today certainly looks to be the peak in rainfall, with PoPs and QPF decreasing by Sunday as the cut-off low twirls into the Ohio River Valley.
One thing is obvious when looking at water vapor imagery this morning, the blocking high is firmly in control across central North America. And the force is strong with this ridge, with barely a cloud in the sky between Illinois and the continental divide. The ensembles continue to show that this ridge will not really start to break down over the upper MS Valley until the middle of the month.
120 AM EDT Sun May 4 2025 A cold front crosses the area tonight, bringing temperatures back to near normal for Sunday and Monday under partly cloudy skies.
1259 AM EDT Sun May 4 2025 A cold front will stall across the Downeast area into Sunday.
An upper low that has organized over the Ohio River Valley moves off to the northeastern Conus before stalling as an upper system over the California Coast wobbles east over the Desert Southwest. Upper ridge builds over the Southeast in the process.
A large area of low pressure will bring cooler temperatures and increased chances for precipitation today through at least mid-week.
A stationary frontal boundary to the south will develop over Mexico, extending from a warm front associated with an upper-level trough over the desert SW. As this trough slowly pushes east, lifting this stationary front northward, chances for showers and thunderstorms persist through Monday.
MH Issued 316 AM CDT Sun May 4 2025 Today through Monday: Northeast surface flow will continue today as region remains affected by large upper low centered over the lower Ohio Valley.
Chilly this morning with mild afternoon temperatures today as high pressure builds back over the region.
611 AM CDT Sun May 4 2025 - Cooler temperatures will occur again today and tonight with highs in the 60s and lows in the 40s.
632 AM EDT Sun May 4 2025 (Today and tonight) The cold front is currently moving through the forecast area and will exit by mid-afternoon. Behind the cold front this morning, some low clouds and patchy fog are possible for a few hours near sunrise. Lows tonight will be in the lower to mid 50s for most spots.
A warmer and drier trend will commence today and persist through the first half of the week as upper level ridging builds back into the area. Chances of showers will increase near midweek as the ridge axis moves further inland and a weak system approaches western Washington.
This will persist through at least mid morning, but the trend is for clouds to dissipate with clear skies late this morning and afternoon as upper ridging builds in with a east to northeast flow developing aloft and near the surface, and a thermal trough develops and strengthens along the coast. This will also be the start of a stretch of dry and warmer weather that is likely to last through the week ahead. A few locations in the Illinois Valley could get close to freezing for an hour or two towards daybreak Monday, but the one thing that could keep temperatures warmer tonight into Monday there will be a favorable northeast flow which could result in just enough wind to keep things mixed up.
525 AM MDT Sun May 4 2025 -Breezy and mild today -Unsettled the first half the week, with a good chance of showers Monday night over western areas -Brief cool down mid week, then warming back up and mainly dry Longwave ridge will continue to shift east, supporting warm and dry weather.
A typical spring omega block in the upper levels will maintain a closed low over the OH Valley region, which will in turn keep dry northwest flow over our forecast area.
1053 AM EDT Sun May 4 2025 * Upper level low will continue to slowly move through the region today and Monday bringing cloudy skies and periods of showers.
616 AM CDT Sun May 4 2025 (Today through Monday Night) The cold front has moved through the region and now a much drier airmass has settled across the region. High pressure will remain in control with generally lighter winds and clear skies expected through the near/short term period.
1024 AM EDT Sun May 4 2025 An upper trough over Kentucky will move very slowly eastward today. Discussion: The bowling ball of boredom, err I mean the upper low, has arrived at its stationary point today centered near Louisville, Kentucky. One fun thing about the low is its effect on temperatures.
Blocking patterns will be the chosen ones throughout this forecast period. Starting with an omega blocking pattern, a cut off low, residing over the Ohio River Valley this morning, will bring the only chance for precipitation to the forecast area throughout this forecast period, from late tonight into Monday morning.
* Upper level low will continue to slowly move through the region today and Monday bringing cloudy skies and periods of showers.
Strong and gusty northerlies continues today in coastal areas and over exposed ridges.
618 AM CDT Sun May 4 2025 (Today through Monday) A relatively quiet Sunday is in store with surface ridging remaining just to the north of us keeping winds mainly east. We'll see a modest increase in dewpoints, though the more substantial increase is tonight into Sunday as the ridge shifts east and flow becomes more southeasterly.
Main culprit are the low freezing level and good mid-level lapse rates. For Tonight, upper trough will continue to move slowly east across the Kentucky with plenty of low level clouds over the area. Even mid to upper 30s over the higher elevations of the Smoky Mountains. Main forcing is due to increasing QG-forcing wrapping around the upper low.
The W-NW flow though valleys of Baker and northern Malheur counties and the lower Snake Plain of Idaho will bring 30-40 mph gusts to much of the area during this time.
(Tonight) Current temperatures are mainly in the upper 50s to lower 60s across the Tennessee Valley, with highs remaining on track to warm into the lower to mid 60s later this afternoon.
The highest amounts (closer to a quarter of an inch) are likely to be limited to our Kansas counties. An area of high pressure aloft extends from the southern plains into the Canadian provinces this afternoon. being squeezed by an upper level low across the desert southwest and another across the Ohio River valley.
144 PM CDT Sun May 4 2025 - A slow moving upper low will continue to result in occasional showers (50-95% chance east of I-55, 20-40% chance west) across central Illinois along with below normal temperatures through Monday.
Showers, thunderstorms, and much cooler than normal temperatures will persist through Monday for much of the area as a strong storm system continues to impact the area. Much cooler than normal temperatures will be the norm for today and tomorrow as we reside on the cool side of the trough.
1121 AM CDT Sun May 4 2025 (Today through Monday) A relatively quiet Sunday is in store with surface ridging remaining just to the north of us keeping winds mainly east. We'll see a modest increase in dewpoints, though the more substantial increase is tonight into Sunday as the ridge shifts east and flow becomes more southeasterly.
RH has dropped into the low 20 percent range this afternoon in spots, especially western MN where temperatures have reached the mid to upper 70s with a few low 80s thrown in as well. As we step forward in time throughout this week, ensemble and deterministic guidance show very strong agreement in the placement of an upper level occlusion slowly churning through the central plains towards the eastern Great Lakes as a western ridge dominates the western half of North America.
Northerly flow will remain elevated, so expect another breezy afternoon with peak wind gusts in the 20-30kt range at TAF sites, except perhaps even a bit higher along the coast and near the higher terrain of the east side. A thermal trough will remain along the northern California coast through Monday producing gusty north winds and steep to very steep seas.
1232 PM CDT Sun May 4 2025 Updated at 1226 PM CDT Sun May 4 2025 - Rain chances will continue tonight and tomorrow with cooler temperatures to start the week.
135 PM EDT Sun May 4 2025 An upper trough over Kentucky will move very slowly eastward today. Discussion: The bowling ball of boredom, err I mean the upper low, has arrived at its stationary point today centered near Louisville, Kentucky. One fun thing about the low is its effect on temperatures.
As the upper low responsible for these conditions moves into southern AZ overnight, the final showers in southern Mono County will wind down. It will still feel a touch cool due to breezy NE-E winds with gusts 20-30 mph in lower elevations, and Sierra ridge top gusts 40-50 mph.
Surface observations at 10 AM EDT reported temperatures in the lower 80s, and dew points in the lower to mid 70s. These are dew points that we usually associate with air that feels noticeably muggier, and the air will probably feel warmer than the true air temperature when you step outside for brunch this morning. From synopsis, the Bermuda High will continue to retreat eastward as troughing to our north seemingly eats away at it, and breezes will respond by remaining light to gentle for the next couple of days. Breezes are expected to freshen heading into mid week as the Atlantic ridge lifts northward into Florida and pressures fall in the Gulf.
UPDATE Temperatures are trending a bit warmer this morning across much of the area, with mid to upper 60s across a large part of the region. Updates to MaxT and RH were needed to reflect the current trends, which favor the warmer CAMs and NBM 90th percentile thus far. 500 mb ridge is over the area today into Monday before a short wave trough moving east thru Canada flattens the ridge temporarily before it builds back late week Thu-Fri.
320 PM EDT Sun May 4 2025 - Warmer and drier than normal period continues into the work week. Temperatures across the interior of the UP are climbing into the 60s, with the interior- western UP climbing even higher into the lower 70s. A moderating airmass will have temperatures coming in warmer than last night, with lows ranging in the upper 30s to lower 40s. We start off the work week with midlevel ridging over the Upper Great Lakes and stacked low pressure over the Ohio Valley slowly moving northward.
1041 AM MDT Sun May 4 2025 -Breezy and mild today -Unsettled the first half the week, with a good chance of showers Monday night over western areas -Brief cool down mid week, then warming back up and mainly dry Longwave ridge will continue to shift east, supporting warm and dry weather.