Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
624 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 (Tonight through Tuesday night) The subtropical ridge is dominant over the Gulf this afternoon. High pressure at the surface has the low level from the south to southeast and a warm, moist airmass is in place across the CWA. The upper ridge is suppressing convection this afternoon. Southerly to southeasterly flow will keep the warm, moist air in place and the upper ridge will prevent any convection.
High pressure is situated over the Four Corners at the moment. As we go into the middle and later part of this week, the high will be wobbling while shifting west. Even some of the lower elevations in Yavapai county look like they could be slipping out of the triple figures. Ensemble guidance eventually brings the high back east to the Four Corners during the middle of the following week.
High pressure is expected to remain in the region for the majority of the week.
539 PM MDT Mon Jul 15 2024 - Temperatures are expected to remain a few degrees above normal with daily thunderstorm chances through the remainder of the week and into the weekend as moisture is recycled under the area of high pressure over the region. SubTropical High pressure was centered over the S. This high will be slowly nudged back to the West through midweek as another trough digs into the Upper MidWest. Staying under the main circulation of this high will basically bring a run.
Cooler and less humid air will move into the region behind a cold front by Tuesday and last through the end of the week.
A weak wind profile in the lower atmosphere will again support the potential for tropical funnels along colliding outflow boundaries.
721 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 (This afternoon through Tuesday) Convective development has begun this afternoon across western portions of the area amidst a relative PWAT maximum of 2 inches and downstream of weak mid-level troughing extending southwest from the Ohio Valley into the Lower MS River Valley. Since moisture has been steadily increasing over the past couple of days, it seems we're in a position to see at least scattered to numerous showers and storms both today and tomorrow during peak heating hours, especially with the weak cyclonic flow associated with the trough. A Heat Advisory remains in effect across southern portions of the area this afternoon, but temperatures are expected to be a few degrees warmer tomorrow. A general lull in activity is expected tonight, but it will be humid with lows in the lower to mid 70s.
The gradual breakdown of the four corners ridge continues to promote unsettled weather. Satellite imagery in the lower to mid level heights as well as the upper heights are signaling moisture rich conditions to the north and east of our CWA.
515 PM MDT Mon Jul 15 2024 -Near average temperatures, with chances for storms most days -A few stronger to severe storms possible this afternoon and evening Latest analysis shows an upper ridge over the western CONUS and Canadian Rockies. An upper low is located over Hudson Bay with a trough swinging southward across Manitoba/Saskatchewan, leading 50-70kt 300mb westerly flow across the region this afternoon. Additional storms are possible on Tuesday afternoon/evening with a stronger short wave trough crossing the region and steep lapse rates in place with northwesterly flow aloft. Tuesday highs will be similar, or a few degrees cooler, than today.
/DL/ Wednesday will spark the beginning of a pattern change across the region, with a low level ridge maximizing across the southeast CONUS ahead of an upper trough expected to extend southwards into the Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley. Increased heights and westerly flow will prompt dangerous heat conditions across the region, with highs in the upper 90s and lows in the lower to middle 70s on Wednesday.
327 AM EDT Tue Jul 16 2024 (Today through Wednesday) Temps are running about 3-7F degrees cooler than this time last night thanks to the storms that covered a good portion of north and central GA yesterday afternoon/evening.
Area temps were in the low to mid 90s as 19Z obs, w/ widespread advisory level heat index values as well. Incrsg chcs for rain and storms wl be noted later Tues evng acrs Nrn AR and much of the Ozark Plateau, as sfc pres falls over the Srn Plains wl yield sfc pres troughing acrs the Ozarks, and result in a developing stationary bndry. This bndry should serve as the focal pt for new convective development Tues evng, and wl be overlaid by slightly incrsg vertical shear as H500 hgt falls overspread the lower OH River Valley.
There is a chance that the cold front associated with the storms may set up in a west to east fashion and stall out across the southern portion of the area, which could lead to storms persisting into the evening over this area. Although the chances of this seem to be on the lower side, did include chance PoPs across the southern CWA through Tuesday afternoon to account for this possibility. With the cold front moving through the area, Tuesday will be cooler than today with temperatures in the mid-to-upper 80s.
103 AM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024 (This afternoon through Tuesday) Convective development has begun this afternoon across western portions of the area amidst a relative PWAT maximum of 2 inches and downstream of weak mid-level troughing extending southwest from the Ohio Valley into the Lower MS River Valley. Since moisture has been steadily increasing over the past couple of days, it seems we're in a position to see at least scattered to numerous showers and storms both today and tomorrow during peak heating hours, especially with the weak cyclonic flow associated with the trough. A Heat Advisory remains in effect across southern portions of the area this afternoon, but temperatures are expected to be a few degrees warmer tomorrow. A general lull in activity is expected tonight, but it will be humid with lows in the lower to mid 70s.
After the passage of a cold front on Wednesday, drier and cooler conditions will move into the region. As the cold front works through, cooler temperatures and drier conditions will start to work into the area.
346 AM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024 - Chances of thunderstorms today as a cold front/outflow boundary drops south through the region.
Our pattern will continue the shift toward a much drier and cooler one for the rest of the week. An upper-level trough will dig into the the western Great Lakes. That's not bad for mid-July! Our high pressure shifts east by the end of the work week. An impressive upper level ridge over the western CONUS will attempt to build eastward with limited success. An rather amplified flow will result in northward expansion of heights with troughing over easter NOAM.
This will likely remain the focus for more additional activity today into tonight, though will have to monitor for widely scattered convection to redevelop locally as moderate diurnal instability takes place on the northern fringe of the stable bubble and incoming synoptic cold front. An upper level trough will amplify southeast through the Great Lakes Wednesday into Wednesday night with low chances for a few additional showers along the associated synoptic cold front. A low level anticyclone then follows in behind this front through this weekend with comfortable humidity and dry conditions. Main composite outflow boundary to become the focus for renewed convection this afternoon/evening south of the terminals, though a cold front drops in with non-zero chances for widely scattered convection mid afternoon through early evening at mainly KFWA.
322 AM EDT Tue Jul 16 2024 Shower and thunderstorm chances increase during the mid-week period as a trough sets up over the eastern US and a cold front approaches from the northwest.
The far southwest is expected to reach around 80 today, with most of the southwest reaching the low 80s on Wednesday.
(Today through Wednesday afternoon) A quiet pattern with ridging over the Four Corners region continues. Subsidence associated with the ridge will keep cloud cover low, allowing temperatures to warm into the 90s today, with triple digits along the Pecos River over the Reeves County plains and Stockton plateau, eastern Permian Basin, and along the Rio Grande. As a result of lower cloud cover and rain chances and a stronger low level thermal ridge today, highs will be a few degrees above average for mid July. We don't quite reach Heat Advisory criteria but come close in the Low Rolling Plains today. Ridging over the Four Corners doesn't move much tomorrow, so we are expecting similar conditions to today, with 90s and triple digits along the Pecos River and Rio Grande and over the eastern Permian Basin.
1235 AM EDT Tue Jul 16 2024 Hot high pressure lingers above the region through Tuesday. A pattern change starts on Wednesday with a cold front forecast to approach from the north then become stationary across our region for several days. Expecting waves of low pressure to move along the front enhancing the chances for rain. Otherwise, a similar set for Tue with weak energy traversing the flow while lee troffing sticks around.
A weak wind profile in the lower atmosphere will again support the potential for tropical funnels along colliding outflow boundaries. High pressure remains centered offshore, with robust 594 dm heights over the central Gulf. A second high-pressure system is located over the 4-corners region. Overhead, weak troughing is helping to keep our atmosphere unstable with diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms. Dry air looks to filter into the region from west to east, mainly in the low to mid levels. High temperatures will remain in the low to mid 90s with dew points in the mid 70s.
Discussion: Currently, an upper disturbance is owing to increased troughing across portions of the mid-west, with on going convection across Indiana and Illinois well ahead of a surface boundary. There is a tad bit of uncertainty with this however, as a handful of models such as the HRRR, GFS, and RAP suggest we mix out quite well and dewpoints may even struggle to reach 70 degrees(The current forecast weighted with NBM10th percentile has Td generally in the low 70s).
1206 AM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024 (This afternoon through Tuesday night) Relatively quiet weather persists in the short term with upper level ridging dominating over the Four Corners. In addition to the subsidence supplied by the ridge, water vapor satellite imagery depicts a tongue of dry air is extending on the southern periphery of the ridge into West Texas. Slightly less cloud cover compared to the last few days and a low level thermal ridge that is a touch stronger today allows many spots to see high temperatures a few degrees warmer than yesterday. The ridge does not move much heading into tomorrow, with a nearly carbon-copy day of weather expected. However, the low level thermal ridge builds to be a touch stronger still, leading to another degree or so warmer for tomorrow's high temperatures.
- Turning cooler and less humid for the rest of the week while also trending dry. To the north, a cold front with another piece of upper level energy will be slide cross northern portions of WI. * TUESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND - cooler and less humid, trending dry Another lobe of upper level energy slated to rotate across the upper mississippi river valley Tue afternoon/evening. Upper level blocking pattern then taking shape for the rest of the week as ridge continues to amplify/hold firm across the rockies/west coast while a trough holds over the new england states. Much cooler and less humid air will flow in from Canada and set up shop through the upcoming weekend, and could linger well into the following week.
118 AM EDT Tue Jul 16 2024 Hot high pressure lingers above the region through Tuesday. A pattern change starts on Wednesday with a cold front forecast to approach from the north then become stationary across our region for several days. Expecting waves of low pressure to move along the front enhancing the chances for rain. Otherwise, a similar set for Tue with weak energy traversing the flow while lee troffing sticks around.
353 AM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024 - Cooler today with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s. Despite the still humid conditions out there early this morning, cooler temperatures have begun to slowly fill in behind the boundary. The airmass change comes thanks to the upper level trough that continues to dig in from the north and push aside the upper ridging over the southwest CONUS. The northern chances will be associated with the trough digging south, as a focused area of mid-level moisture transport pools moisture along an approaching low level boundary.
Temps will again warm up today, and with increasing dewpoints ahead of the next upper trough, heat index values will climb into the 105-110 range this afternoon for areas west of the Plateau.
(Today and tonight) The upper level ridge will maintain its control over our area today, keeping the forecast hot and dry again. In fact, 850mb temperatures will warm a degree or so across the area, likely resulting in highs being 1 or 2 degrees warmer as well.
(Today and tonight) A bit of troughing over the southeast CONUS along with ample moisture will allow for more scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms across the area today. The highest coverage is expected across Florida counties along the seabreeze, but additional activity is also expected across the region. Highs today are forecast in the low to mid 90s with max heat indices in the 105 to 108 degree range.
One factor against storms today concerns a field of convective cloud debris spreading south around a departing upper high to our west. Storm chances look a bit better this evening in our northwest counties as upslope convection in northeast NM drifts southeast, although this will likely lose its vigor as it approaches a lingering W-E ridge axis aloft. Subsequently, low temps tonight may need to be revised warmer if cloud debris overnight looks more robust, although for now we've kept with the blend's cooler lows owing to a larger push of outflow on northerly winds.
1219 AM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024 (Tonight through Tuesday night) The subtropical ridge is dominant over the Gulf this afternoon. High pressure at the surface has the low level from the south to southeast and a warm, moist airmass is in place across the CWA. The upper ridge is suppressing convection this afternoon. Southerly to southeasterly flow will keep the warm, moist air in place and the upper ridge will prevent any convection.
1246 AM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024 - There's a 30 to 60 percent chance of showers and maybe a few thunderstorms tonight through late Tuesday morning, with the higher chances across the west and south central. Aloft a large upper level low is spinning in northern Manitoba and moving southeast. The highest chances will be across western and south central parts of the state.
The best chance to hit higher heat indices will be across areas west of I-65 where the ridge is stronger and storms will hold off long enough to support higher temperatures.
- Near to below normal temperatures will continue through the weekend as cooler air funnels into the region. The Short Term (Today & Tonight): A cooler day is ahead! Taking a look across the area, cooler air continues to funnel into the region behind yesterday's cold front. Looking a radar, a few scattered showers continue to develop across portions of western ND and southcentral SD in response to bits of isentropic lift associated with the rotating Hudson Bay trough in Canada along with support from the right entrance region of an upper-level jet. Lastly, expect a cooler night as cooler air continues to makes it way to the surface.
- Better chances for showers/storms Tuesday night with stronger secondary cold front with more significant cooling on Wednesday. - Cooler/drier air with temperatures below climo to finish the work week. Heat relief is on the way, though it will come in somewhat limited fashion on Tuesday behind a shallow/weak surface cold front. As a stronger upper trof pivots southeastward from the Upper Midwest into the western Great Lakes Tuesday night, the stronger secondary cold front will move southward across Kansas.
309 AM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024 - As a cold front slows across northeast Kansas, a series of impulses trigger scattered storms this morning through the evening hours. The cooler airmass arrives Wednesday morning as gusty northeast winds in the afternoon bring high temperatures down to the lower and middle 80s.
1041 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 - There's a 30 to 60% chance of showers and maybe a few thunderstorms tonight through late Tuesday morning, with the higher chances across the west and south central. Aloft a large upper level low is spinning in northern Manitoba and moving southeast. The highest chances will be across western and south central parts of the state.
Northwest flow aloft continues across the through the remainder of the week as persistent upper level ridge remains across the Intermountain west.
1215 AM EDT Tue Jul 16 2024 High pressure will persist offshore, while a weak trough resides inland through mid week. A cold front will approach the region late week and likely stall nearby. Lows form the mid 70s well inland to the lower 80s at the beaches and Downtown Charleston look on track. Mid level ridging will weaken through midweek as a broad trough initially north of the area amplifies into the Southeast. At the surface, high pressure will persist over the Atlantic while a trough resides inland.
1118 PM MDT Mon Jul 15 2024 -Near average temperatures, with chances for storms most days -A few stronger to severe storms possible this afternoon and evening Latest analysis shows an upper ridge over the western CONUS and Canadian Rockies. An upper low is located over Hudson Bay with a trough swinging southward across Manitoba/Saskatchewan, leading 50-70kt 300mb westerly flow across the region this afternoon. Additional storms are possible on Tuesday afternoon/evening with a stronger short wave trough crossing the region and steep lapse rates in place with northwesterly flow aloft. Tuesday highs will be similar, or a few degrees cooler, than today.
The pattern remains fairly stagnant through the forecast period with the sub-tropical ridge axis extending across the Florida Peninsula through the rest of the week, setting up light flow generally out of the southeast. Atlantic high pressure will continue to ridge across Florida and into the eastern Gulf of Mexico through the rest of the week.
(Today through Wednesday) High pressure remains generally in control through the short term period, with the mid-level ridge slightly pivoting west to settle across the Four Corners mid-week.
(Today through Wednesday) Another hot day expected across the region as upper level heights/thicknesses remain elevated with the close proximity to the mid level ridge across the Gulf of Mexico and southwest Atlantic. Still expecting hot conditions again being on the northwest periphery of the upper ridge. A bit better rain chance on Wednesday during the afternoon and evening, but largely the highest POPs will be found just beyond the scope of the short term period.
Tonight through Wednesday Night: An upper ridge will remain over the region into Tuesday with a slight increase in temperatures.
High pressure begins to retrograde westward some as it continues to wobble around the southwest. Elsewhere, more isolated coverage is expected mainly over the higher terrain.
349 AM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024 Forecast discussion for routine morning forecast issuance - Turning cooler and much less humid the next couple days, with only a small chance of precipitation. and Wednesday A cold front was moving through the far SE part of the forecast area early this morning, and associated thunderstorms were shifting to our east.
- Cold front brings 60-80% chances for showers and thunderstorm late Tuesday through Wednesday night.
Thunderstorms will continue over the mountains, and will also drift into the deserts, especially the high desert, mainly east of I-15. With the monster high pressure ridge over the West taking a temporary break over SoCal, temperatures will mellow out from the extremes of the last two weeks; max temps rise to around normal today and Tuesday. The ridge begins to strengthen again Wednesday to start yet another warming trend, and max temps rise several degrees above normal in the mountains and deserts.
This forcing regime will slowly spread eastward along the corridor of mid level moisture through the day with a gradual weakening of the low level winds.
- Cooler and drier for midweek with the arrival of high pressure. Cold and dry advection has overspread Upper Michigan early this morning with water vapor imagery/RAP analysis showing yesterday's cold front now east of the forecast area. By daybreak, the cold spots across the interior west could dip into the low 50s. Upper troughing over far northern Ontario will continue to dig southward across Lake Superior on Tuesday.
334 AM EDT Tue Jul 16 2024 - Hot and humid weather will bring heat index values ranging from the upper 90s to the lower 100s to many locations Tuesday.
1202 AM EDT Tue Jul 16 2024 Shower and thunderstorm chances increase during the mid-week period as a trough sets up over the eastern US and a cold front approaches from the north and west.
Today and Wednesday Expecting a pretty quiet day across eastern Idaho as high pressure regains control of local weather. H5 heights continue to increase into the day Wednesday and temps will respond accordingly by rising a few more degrees with highs in the lower to middle 90s likely for lower elevations on Wednesday.
- Much cooler and less humid conditions are expected to arrive Wednesday and continue into the weekend. Satellite imagery this afternoon shows a hot humid airmass is in place across the Central Plains this afternoon, stuck between a dome of high pressure over the Four Corners Region juxtaposed against a trough extending south through eastern Canada into the Great Lakes. Otherwise for Tuesday, expect temperatures to start to trend down as the cooler air behind the modest cold front starts to filter south. Looking forward to Wednesday and the periods beyond, day time highs and overnight lows will be much nicer as the cooler north wind prevails while the eastern Canadian trough parks itself to our east and keeps the cool air moving south. Uncertainties remain with the timing and spatial extent of precip a progressive cold front passed through the region.
(Today through Wednesday) We will remain in a warmer, but wetter pattern for the next 2 days. At the same time a ridge of warm air remains on top of the area, so temperatures will once again climb into the low to mid 90s. With these temperatures and the higher humidity, it will feel like 105 to 108 across a good portion of the area today and most likely Wednesday as well.
The general overall synoptic weather pattern looks similar to yesterday with South Texas sandwiched between two mid/upper level high pressure systems. Minor change is that the high pressure east of the area has shifted slightly southward across northern Gulf of Mexico, while the high west of the area has shifted eastward across the Plains. Models indicate a deepening trough digging southeastward from the northern plains, and pushing farther south into TX on Wednesday. The better chance of convection across the Victoria Crossroads is due to closer proximity to the approaching upper trough, and stronger low level moisture convergence.
616 AM EDT Tue Jul 16 2024 Shower and thunderstorm chances increase during the mid-week period as a trough sets up over the eastern US and a cold front approaches from the northwest.
However, widely scattered storms may still develop along the higher terrain early this afternoon and spreading across adjacent plains through early this evening.
High pressure will continue to bring hot and dry weather for the remainder of the week.
(Today through Wednesday) Temps are running about 3-7F degrees cooler than this time last night thanks to the storms that covered a good portion of north and central GA yesterday afternoon/evening.