Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Light snow is continuing this afternoon in the mountains mainly along the higher ridges. There will be mid to high level moisture associated with this trough that will allow for snow showers to continue in the mountains. Another inch or two of snow may fall along the higher mountain ridges but the majority of the higher elevations will not see accumulating snowfall. Ensemble guidance shows a general consensus on an upper level pattern dominated by deep troughing in the SW U. Monday night, snow gradually decreases across the high country as a weak ridge begins to build in, bringing in dry air aloft.
- Mild temperatures continue through the forecast period and under broad troughiness through the week occasional mountain snowfall and mixed precipitation in the valleys can be expected. Moisture remains sufficient for showers although the higher IVT values are well to our south. The rates should be light through the passage of this next trough. Lingering moisture may result in isolated showers in the higher terrain tomorrow afternoon before drying out in the evening.
The persistent low pressure off the west coast continues to introduce moist and mild conditions into the Northern Rockies. Despite the weakening inversions, sub-freezing temperatures are still anticipated, especially in the valleys of northwest Montana. The temperature profile suggests a wintry mix of freezing rain and snow in northwest Montana, and light rain with pockets of freezing rain in the valleys south of I-90. Winter weather advisories have been reissued for northwest Montana, anticipating very slick conditions tonight due to the combination of freezing rain and snow.
530 PM CST Sun Jan 21 2024 - Freezing rain and sleet are expected across the region Tonight into Monday morning.
334 PM CST Sun Jan 21 2024 - Freezing rain and sleet are expected across the region Tonight into Monday morning.
704 PM EST Sun Jan 21 2024 Canadian high pressure will maintain very cold temperatures through Mon morning. As the high pushes offshore, much milder and humid air will overspread the Carolinas through the rest of the work week. Tonight will still be quite cold as we sit under Canadian high pressure. Otherwise, lows will largely be near 20, slightly warmer near the coast. Come Mon morning the center of high pressure should be slightly to our north, where it will continue to the east through the day, pushing offshore around the afternoon. Flow aloft around the back of the high will take on a SWly component with some weak WAA filtering over the area.
418 PM MST Sun Jan 21 2024 102 PM MST Sun Jan 21 2024 - Weak back door cool front may assist freezing fog development in the near term - Mild air still on tap for most folks 19z surface analysis had warm front from central ND into eastern CO, lee trough from central MT into central CO, and weak cool front from north-central MT into central ND. Main forecast concern in the near term is freezing fog potential behind weak cool front.
Through the day, the flow has already veered more ENE, allowing some cooler air to continue filtering in, but also starting advect some additional moisture into the area. While some sheltered spots across the Northern Nature Coast may come close, the overall expectation is for temperatures to remain above freezing tonight, especially with some wind remaining.
543 PM CST Sun Jan 21 2024 - Winter Weather Advisory issued for freezing rain and freezing drizzle across much of the forecast area this evening through Monday morning.
500 PM CST Sun Jan 21 2024 (Tonight) Temps in some locations have finally climbed above the freezing mark heading into the afternoon hrs this Sun, as high pressure to the north moves eastward into the mid Atlantic region. Temps will again fall below freezing later tonight, with lows falling mainly into the upper teens/lower 20s.
249 PM MST Sun Jan 21 2024 A weak disturbance will push through the current ridging pattern to provide some isolated light precip for tonight into the morning. Warm air slighty above the surface along with saturation at the surface will create conditions favorable for fog and freezing drizzle. Freezing drizzle could cause slick spots on the road, so take extra time for travel.
603 PM EST Sun Jan 21 2024 (Rest of today through Monday) Strong high pressure is centered over the OH valley this afternoon. This will give us warmer overnight low temps tonight and slightly warmer high temps on Monday. Low temps tonight will range from the low 50s around the lake to low 60s across SE FL. High temps on Monday will generally be in the lower 70s.
Upper level trough offshore with southwesterly flow aloft. Systems spinning out of the trough moving through Western Washington tonight into Monday.
Freezing rain will create hazardous travel conditions within the Winter Weather Advisory area.
544 PM CST Sun Jan 21 2024 (This evening through Monday) The current weather has temperatures above freezing across the entire area, mainly upper 30s to lower 40s. So the good news is no freezing rain to deal with this afternoon, just light rain. For the northeast Big Country, temperatures may be around freezing for a few hours for a little ice but no impacts are expected. Warmer on Monday with highs in the 50s and 60s as the remaining bit of arctic air is removed from our area.
557 PM CST Sun Jan 21 2024 - A period of freezing rain appears likely across the Ozark Foothills of southeast Missouri Monday morning and afternoon. Elsewhere, temperatures largely rise above freezing before the rain arrives.
The latest GOES east Water Vapor loop shows a broad trough organizing over the Desert Southwest. With arctic air still in place across the Mid-South, precipitation may initially start as freezing rain mixed with sleet for areas west of the Mississippi River. However, each successive hi-res model run appears to be slower with the onset of precipitation and slightly warmer. Due to the low QPF values and delayed timing of precipitation overspreading the region, chose to forgo a winter weather advisory for portions of northeast Arkansas. Any light sleet or freezing rain will be isolated and convert over to all rain by 18Z. AC3 A gradual return of warmer temperatures are expected this week with highs by mid to late week in the 50s and 60s.
1044 PM CST Sun Jan 21 2024 (The rest of tonight) Freezing rain event underway this evening with precip that will continue to overspread the area from the southwest overnight.
318 AM EST Mon Jan 22 2024 A warming trend starts Monday as high pressure shifts offshore.
A trough of low pressure will pass eastward across Central California today. The majority of precipitation associated with this trough of low pressure is expected to fall this morning.
1054 PM CST Sun Jan 21 2024 (This evening through Monday) The current weather has temperatures above freezing across the entire area, mainly upper 30s to lower 40s. So the good news is no freezing rain to deal with this afternoon, just light rain. For the northeast Big Country, temperatures may be around freezing for a few hours for a little ice but no impacts are expected. Warmer on Monday with highs in the 50s and 60s as the remaining bit of arctic air is removed from our area.
Upper level ridging extends across the southeast U. A 1040 MB high pressure center sits over the mid-Atlantic states and dominates the weather over the southeast U. High pressure over the mid-Atlantic states slowly moves eastward and will ridge across Florida through the week. Rain chances remain on the low side with only a chance of showers through the week. The cool weather comes to an end today as high pressure builds in over the region.
1139 PM CST Sun Jan 21 2024 - A period of freezing rain appears likely across the Ozark Foothills of southeast Missouri Monday morning and afternoon. Elsewhere, temperatures largely rise above freezing before the rain arrives.
1136 PM CST Sun Jan 21 2024 - Freezing rain and sleet are expected across the region Tonight into Monday morning.
1030 PM MST Sun Jan 21 2024 Evening Update: With all the moisture from today's freezing rain event and a couple peeks of afternoon sun (especially in western zones) that allowed for some melting and evaporation of the rain, lower levels of the atmosphere will approach or reach saturation late tonight into tomorrow morning.
1025 PM EST Sun Jan 21 2024 Canadian high pressure will maintain very cold temperatures through Mon morning. As the high pushes offshore, much milder and humid air will overspread the Carolinas through the rest of the work week. Tonight will still be quite cold as we sit under Canadian high pressure. Otherwise, lows will largely be near 20, slightly warmer near the coast. Come Mon morning the center of high pressure should be slightly to our north, where it will continue to the east through the day, pushing offshore around the afternoon. Flow aloft around the back of the high will take on a SWly component with some weak WAA filtering over the area.
216 AM CST Mon Jan 22 2024 - Ice accumulations from freezing rain may lead to some impacts today, mainly west of a line from Albion, Illinois, to Dexter, Missouri. The highest chance for icing remains in the Ozarks and near vicinity in southeast Missouri, into southern Illinois to around the I-57 and I-64 junction. Elsewhere, temperatures largely rise and remain above freezing before the rain arrives.
357 AM EST Mon Jan 22 2024 High pressure will build overhead today before shifting eastward midweek as an upper level trough deepens over the central plains. Waves of low pressure will impact the area for the second half of the week as the upper level trough approaches the Mid-Atlantic. High pressure builds over the area today with dry conditions and light winds expected. Mary's county where temperatures will stay in the low 30s.
Temperatures were still mild yet this evening, with readings in the mid to upper 30s where the returns were, so this would not translate into freezing precip yet. That being said, ground was cold and the risk of precip becoming light freezing rain is definitely there (HREF showing a 10-20% chance of freezing precip). Updated the forecast to add the chance of precipitation, with a slight chance of light freezing rain north of Billings. TWH A weak disturbance will push through the current ridging pattern to provide some isolated light precip for tonight into the morning. Warm air slighty above the surface along with saturation at the surface will create conditions favorable for fog and freezing drizzle. Freezing drizzle could cause slick spots on the road, so take extra time for travel.
(The rest of tonight) Freezing rain event underway this evening with precip that will continue to overspread the area from the southwest overnight.
914 PM CST Sun Jan 21 2024 - A period of freezing rain appears likely across the Ozark Foothills of southeast Missouri Monday morning and afternoon. Elsewhere, temperatures largely rise above freezing before the rain arrives.
Calm, clear, and cool conditions will prevail for the entire area tonight thanks to high pressure off to our east. We will see this reflected in tonights lows in the mid 20s, nearly 20 degrees warmer than the previous two nights. Likewise, since overnight temperatures will remain below freezing, this will create yet another night and morning where previously melted snow/ice will refreeze.
940 PM MST Sun Jan 21 2024 102 PM MST Sun Jan 21 2024 - Weak back door cool front may assist freezing fog development in the near term - Mild air still on tap for most folks 19z surface analysis had warm front from central ND into eastern CO, lee trough from central MT into central CO, and weak cool front from north-central MT into central ND. Main forecast concern in the near term is freezing fog potential behind weak cool front.
113 AM EST Mon Jan 22 2024 Canadian high pressure will maintain very cold temperatures through Mon morning. As the high pushes offshore, much milder and humid air will overspread the Carolinas through the rest of the work week. Tonight will still be quite cold as we sit under Canadian high pressure. Otherwise, lows will largely be near 20, slightly warmer near the coast. Come Mon morning the center of high pressure should be slightly to our north, where it will continue to the east through the day, pushing offshore around the afternoon. Flow aloft around the back of the high will take on a SWly component with some weak WAA filtering over the area.
High pressure along the Eastern Seaboard will continue to dominate our weather for the overnight. Otherwise, KBYX radar is showing some light stratiform precipitation trying to fall out the higher deck but will evaporate well before it reaches the surface. From synopsis: a large high pressure system centered near the Appalachians will slide steadily east southeast over the next several days.
1044 PM CST Sun Jan 21 2024 - Winter Weather Advisory issued for freezing rain and freezing drizzle across much of the forecast area this evening through Monday morning.
238 AM CST Mon Jan 22 2024 - Freezing rain, mixed with sleet and snow at times, is moving northeast through our CWA early today. - Another wintry mix, begins tonight with rain, freezing rain, snow an sleet all expected. - Surface and road temperatures remain below freezing through this morning. The first wave of freezing rain / sleet / and a little snow is moving northeast over our area early today. This wave of freezing rain does not look to last overly long, with nearly all CAMs showing the ZR moving out by 6-8 AM to the east. There could be some freezing drizzle, but forcing and lift are not indicated in models, and with dry conditions, temperatures should rise a bit higher than if we had rain/ZR falling.
352 AM EST Mon Jan 22 2024 High pressure will pass off the Atlantic coast today, allowing southwesterly winds to develop which will bring a return of warmer air from the Gulf coast region. Gulf moisture will return as well for the middle of the week, bringing periods of rain showers to the lower Mid-Atlantic.
1103 PM CST Sun Jan 21 2024 (This evening through Monday) Main impact in the short term will be freezing rain between late this afternoon and early tomorrow morning. With everything west of I-35 above freezing right now, these will begin as non-freezing precipitation. CAMs are divided on how far southwest the freezing line moves. Daytime temperatures in south central Oklahoma have been on the higher end of guidance, so have trended the forecast in this direction (cloud cover and southerly flow favoring persistence). Additionally, ground temps have been persistently above freezing as far east as Love county along the Red River. Tomorrow, temperatures should fairly quickly warm above freezing (even with our forecast being on the lower end of guidance). Most areas climb above freezing by 10am.
(Today) Widespread freezing rain showers will continue through 12-15Z this morning with temperatures hovering between 28-32F. After about 15Z, freezing rain will change to rain from south to north, with most areas being all rain by 18Z. (Tonight through Sunday) For most of the workweek an upper level low will remain to the west or southwest of the area, pumping anomalously moist air into the area.
428 AM CST Mon Jan 22 2024 (Today through Tuesday Night) The forecast remains on track with impacts from this round of winter weather already being noted across W/NW Arkansas this morning as freezing rain has caused dangerous conditions on area roadways. Still anticipate the main impacts from ice accumulation to be slick roadways as freezing rain will continue to spread E/NE through the day. Sfc temperatures remain near to just below freezing this morning and areas that haven't experienced precip yet could see temps initially dip 2-3 degrees when precip begins.
432 AM EST Mon Jan 22 2024 Freezing rain will be possible at times Monday night into Tuesday morning before temperatures warm and transition over to rain.
833 AM EST Mon Jan 22 2024 A wintry mix will develop today and change to mostly freezing rain tonight.
643 AM EST Mon Jan 22 2024 Freezing rain will be possible at times Monday night into Tuesday morning before temperatures warm and transition over to rain.
627 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024 (This evening through Thursday) Cold front moves through overnight tonight through Thursday morning, with potential for Severe Weather Thursday afternoon and evening along the eastern portions of West Central Texas. Above-normal temperatures from today will mostly come to an end as the next cold front tracks into West Central Texas overnight tonight into Thursday morning, with only the southern half of West Central Texas continuing to experience above-normal temperatures again on Thursday.
- Warmer and drier conditions expected for the weekend. For the weekend, 500hpa Pacific ridge flops into the midwest, compressing the low south where it eventually becomes cut off in the desert southwest.
617 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024 - Mostly dry for the remainder of the week with seasonable temps in the lower to mid 70s, warming into the upper 70s to lower 80s this weekend.
746 PM EDT Wed May 8 2024 - Dry conditions expected to continue through Thursday morning as a dry cold front stalls over southern Pennsylvania. - A wave of low pressure will move across southern PA Thursday evening.
A backdoor cold front arrived this morning, bringing with it cooler temperatures and breezy northeasterly winds across the region. Highs this afternoon will struggle to reach into the low 50s in northeast CA and the Sierra and low 60s in western NV. This northeasterly height gradient will generate gusty winds across Sierra ridges (60+ mph), which will also mix down into the Lake Tahoe Basin through tonight. Low temperatures will slightly increase tonight into Thursday morning, bringing many valleys out of near-freezing temperatures. However, valleys across the northern Sierra south into the eastern Sierra will see near to below-freezing lows once again. Temperatures will increase into the weekend as the upper low associated with this morning's backdoor cold front will begin to move eastward into the eastern Great Basin and Intermountain West.
A cold front will move south through the area tonight, though impacts will be restricted to just some low clouds and drizzle.
645 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024 - Showers and isolated thunderstorms will be possible tonight through tomorrow as a low pressure area and a weak surface front push through the area.
Gusty north-northwest winds between 25 and 35 mph will continue across the forecast area through Thursday evening as a result of tightened north-south surface pressure gradients between a growing ridge of high pressure over the eastern Pacific and a closed low over the central United States.
1050 PM EDT Wed May 8 2024 - Much cooler on Thursday with rain expected south of M-59 and a chance north.
A building expansive Pacific ridge of high pressure will continue to bring warming temperatures and strengthening N to NE winds. High pressure is building into the Pacific Northwest and an upper level low is slowly retrograding to the southwest over the Central Rockies. This is creating a tight pressure gradient across the area bringing gusty north winds to the coastal areas and over the higher terrain. These are expected to increase tonight over the higher terrain, especially in SE Trinity, NE Mendocino and Lake counties. Thursday the low pressure over the Rockies continues to drop south and this will gradually the pressure gradient to relax and winds start to diminish through the day.
610 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024 (The rest of this afternoon and tonight) Thunderstorms continue to develop early this afternoon across northeast Oklahoma in the vicinity of a cold front that extends from near Nowata to near Oilton and back into south-central Oklahoma. The storms are expected to come to an end later this evening as the cold front exits.
801 PM EDT Wed May 8 2024 Low pressure will cross the region tonight, then exit across the Maritimes Thursday.
945 PM EDT Wed May 8 2024 Low pressure will cross the region tonight, then exit across the Maritimes Thursday.
808 PM EDT Wed May 8 2024 - Dry conditions expected to continue through Thursday morning as a dry cold front stalls over southern Pennsylvania. - A wave of low pressure will move across southern PA Thursday evening.
812 PM EDT Wed May 8 2024 A cold front will drop across the area tonight, marking the beginning of a cooler pattern.
- A transition to warmer and drier weather is expected Thursday through the weekend. A few showers continue to rotate around the low over far southern North Dakota, and over far north central into northwest North Dakota. Low pressure that was vertically stacked over southwestern ND/northwestern SD has become elongated as it quickly shifts southeast through the remainder of today into tonight. For Thursday, a quick-moving ridge on a west to east axis passes through the area bringing warmer temperatures to the region. During the weekend, models are in fair agreement that somewhat weak upper low pressure will develop over the Four Corners region and progress eastward, while more organized low pressure passes through south central Canada towards the southern Hudson Bay. A trailing trough off the Hudson Bay low brings the best chances of precipitation towards the middle of the week.
954 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024 - Showers and isolated thunderstorms will be possible tonight through Thursday as a low pressure area and a weak surface front push through the area.
1226 AM CDT Thu May 9 2024 (This evening through Thursday night) Surface winds have been light and variable around the combined Panhandles this morning with a stalled surface boundary (cold front) over the area. The main push of CAA advection behind this front is expected tomorrow, but also the upsloping winds will help keep temperatures on the cooler side tomorrow with highs in the upper 60s across the northwestern combined Panhandles and 70s over the rest of the combined Panhandles. Besides some breezy winds and temperatures turning cooler tomorrow, overall the weather is expected to be benign in the short term.
Our synoptic pattern still has a closed upper low persisting over the Central & Northern Plains with a large amplitude trough negatively tilted across the western half of the country. The cold front that came through our area yesterday will be pushing through north Texas this morning then stalling around the Dallas/Ft Worth Metroplex. Drier surface air across western north Texas through southern Oklahoma should inhibit any surface-based convection keeping the higher severe risk southward toward the Metroplex.
248 AM EDT Thu May 9 2024 Showers and thunderstorms will return, mainly south of Pittsburgh, as a frontal boundary turns around and approaches as a warm front.
(Today) Cold front is currently located from far NW AR through far SE OK and westward across N TX. Further north across NE OK into far NW AR an isolated high based shower is possible this afternoon, though most locations will remain dry with cooler temperatures.
Latest CAMs show convection developing earlier than originally forecasted, as early as 12Z-15Z, and a little farther west, as the dryline and then the cold front start to move into the area.
- Cool and cloudy today with highs only in the lower 60s, but then somewhat milder for the remainder of the forecast with highs in the 70s each day.
At this time, the highest threat for severe weather is for the western portions of the forecast area. There is higher confidence that this complex will make it through our area as this one is more tied to an approaching cold front as well as some daytime heating. SPC keeps an Enhanced Risk (3/5) of severe weather for the lower CSRA and a Slight Risk (2/5) for the rest of the forecast area. One more potentially active convective day Friday ahead of the advancing cold front. Additional thunderstorm development possible late in the day over the northeastern Midlands as the main upper trough axis swings through.
349 AM EDT Thu May 9 2024 Showers and thunderstorms will return, mainly south of Pittsburgh, as a frontal boundary turns around and approaches as a warm front through dawn.
152 AM EDT Thu May 9 2024 Low pressure will cross the region tonight, then exit across the Maritimes Thursday. Low pressure will track to our south Friday while high pressure builds to our north.