Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
High pressure sits across southeast South Dakota and northern Iowa early this afternoon. Moisture and warm air advection is forecast to develop this evening over central Iowa with the low level jet then veering into eastern Iowa, northwest Illinois and far northeast Missouri after 06 UTC. Depending on how the morning convection evolves, there may be little in the way of CAPE across the area but models do show a surge in instability behind the warm front. High temperatures will be dependent on how long the rain is in the area but for now have highs ranging from the upper 60s northwest of Cedar Rapids to the lower 80s in west central Illinois.
Martin (This afternoon through Thursday) An upper ridge will build over the area tonight and Thursday, with temperatures continuing to climb. Low temperatures tonight will range from the mid to upper 50s across the N to the lower 60s across the S. The highest elevations in the N should remain in the mid to upper 70s. Low temperatures Thursday night will be warmer than preceding nights, ranging from near 60 in the NE mountains to the lower to mid 60s elsewhere.
As the associated trough pushes eastward on Thursday out of the Great Basin, gradients will tighten along the Colorado River Valley, resulting in gusty north winds at Lake Mohave near Laughlin / Bullhead City and Needles.
(Tonight) Tranquil weather across the Tennessee Valley this evening with high pressure in control. Still, the clear/calm conditions will create a setup up favorable for radiational cooling and expect low temperatures to drop off into the mid/upper 50s across southern middle Tennessee and northeast Alabama -- and the lower 60s elsewhere across northern Alabama.
734 PM EDT Wed May 1 2024 -Warm/dry weather with lower humidity into Thursday -Trending unsettled into the weekend with some periods of rain and thunderstorms Sat/Sun A cold front, stretching from Western Lk Erie to Southern Indiana at 23Z, is progged to push into Central PA tonight. Therefore, expect nothing more than a few cumulus accompanying the low level jet later tonight, mainly over the northern counties. Min temps should be close to 10 degrees above climo in the warm advection regime ahead of the front, with daybreak readings ranging from around 50F over the NW Mtns, to the upper 50s across the Lower Susq Valley.
1032 PM EDT Wed May 1 2024 -Warm/dry weather with lower humidity into Thursday -Trending unsettled into the weekend with some periods of rain and thunderstorms Sat/Sun A cold front, stretching from Western Lk Erie to Southern Indiana at 23Z, is progged to push into Central PA tonight. Therefore, expect nothing more than a few cumulus accompanying the low level jet later tonight, mainly over the northern counties. Min temps should be close to 10 degrees above climo in the warm advection regime ahead of the front, with daybreak readings ranging from around 50F over the NW Mtns, to the upper 50s across the Lower Susq Valley.
In the wake of this area of storms, expect some recovery of the airmass by this afternoon ahead of a cold front which will push southeastward this afternoon into central Oklahoma, though clouds may limit this recovery to some degree across central Oklahoma.
249 AM EDT Thu May 2 2024 Weak low pressure will track through the state then into the Gulf of Maine today.
1113 PM EDT Wed May 1 2024 -Warm/dry weather with lower humidity into Thursday -Trending unsettled into the weekend with some periods of rain and thunderstorms Sat/Sun A cold front, stretching from Northwest Ohio to Southern Indiana at 03Z, is progged to push into Central PA tonight. Therefore, expect nothing more than a few cumulus accompanying the low level jet later tonight, mainly over the northern counties. Min temps should be close to 10 degrees above climo in the warm advection regime ahead of the front, with daybreak readings ranging from around 50F over the NW Mtns, to the upper 50s across the Lower Susq Valley.
1146 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024 (Tonight) Tranquil weather across the Tennessee Valley this evening with high pressure in control. Still, the clear/calm conditions will create a setup up favorable for radiational cooling and expect low temperatures to drop off into the mid/upper 50s across southern middle Tennessee and northeast Alabama -- and the lower 60s elsewhere across northern Alabama.
Very warm conditions are expected to continue today with deep layer ridging overhead. Given the ridging, though, coverage is expected to be pretty sparse. Highs are forecast to soar into the upper 80s to low 90s areawide, with lows overnight in the low to mid 60s.
Discussion: A large high pressure ridge through the column will be centered to our east over the Carolinas. Lift ahead of this trough will begin to spread some showers into the southern Plateau in the 09-12Z time frame.
1235 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024 Perturbed pattern persists across the western half of the nation, with cold core low centered across northern MT/stronger longwave jet progged to round the base of the trough in the Pacific Northwest. With expected low-level southerly return flow expected to pick up overnight on the western fringes of the mean ridge, at the sfc/aloft, over the Carolinas/Atlantic seaboard, low stratus/fog formation is possible across the southern half of the area. No major changes to sensible weather forecast, with seasonably warm lows in the low 60s southeast of the Natchez Trace corridor while mid-upper to the northwest & increasing clouds.
443 AM EDT Thu May 2 2024 High pressure then builds in for a couple of days before yet another cold front impacts the area over the weekend. After the fog mixes out later this morning, ridging will move overhead today.
A mild and wet day is expected throughout the forecast area today, as a slow moving upper low passes north of the area. Cold front will also pass through late this afternoon and evening, which will be another focus for further showers/storms this afternoon and evening.
The deep troughing over the western CONUS will continue to slide northeast into south central Canada this weekend as eastern ridging slowly fades and flow becomes more zonal this weekend. Stronger waves will continue to rotate around the parent trough to the north with a brief break in the rain for the weekend as ridging moves in.
354 AM EDT Thu May 2 2024 - Normal to above normal temperatures through the week, with highs in the 70s and 80s, cooler near Lake Michigan.
1228 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024 (Current through Thursday night) Southeast surface winds have promoted increasing moisture across the region with afternoon dew points observed in the low to mid 70s. High temperatures range the low to mid 90s across much of Brush country and the Rio Grande Plains.
The lowest values tonight should be in the NE counties where NE flow has allowed some lower dew points to filter into the area.
(Today) Another very warm/dry day will be on tap for the Tennessee Valley later today, with high pressure remaining established just east of the area. Otherwise, late in the day mid/upper clouds will begin to increase from west to east ahead of the weak cold front.
As a slow moving cold front approaches and eventually stalls out, scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible starting this afternoon through the weekend. As a cold front slowly approaches from the west later this morning, showers and thunderstorms will pick up in coverage and intensity along the decaying MCS from the Plains. NBM 90th percentile suggests that the warmest reasonable high temperatures this afternoon are in the low 90s for much of the area.
322 AM EDT Thu May 2 2024 -Warm/dry weather with lower humidity into Thursday -Trending unsettled into the weekend with some periods of rain and thunderstorms Sat/Sun A cold front, stretching from Northwest Ohio to Southern Indiana at 03Z, is progged to push into Central PA tonight. Therefore, expect nothing more than a few cumulus accompanying the low level jet later tonight, mainly over the northern counties. Min temps should be close to 10 degrees above climo in the warm advection regime ahead of the front, with daybreak readings ranging from around 50F over the NW Mtns, to the upper 50s across the Lower Susq Valley.
However, the dryline will mix all the way into the western Low Rolling Plains and San Angelo's area this afternoon thanks to an upper trough ejecting from the Rockies into the north- central Plains. On the heels of this trough, it will help to push a cold front into the area today, and could start to nose into the northern Permian Basin in the late afternoon/early evening time frame. More importantly, the convective outflow from these storms would help push the front into our area and many of the high resolution models take the front all the way to the Pecos Valley.
The ridging set in place over the area moves to the east Friday with a trough to our west. As this trough moves further west, we start to see the beginnings of shower and thunderstorm activity Friday afternoon and evening.
- Next chance for severe weather is Friday evening into Friday night as a cold front moves through the area.
As a slow moving cold front approaches and eventually stalls out, scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible starting this afternoon through the weekend.
Temps to start the day will be close to 10 degrees above climo in the warm advection regime ahead of a weak/dry cold front front that was sliding across the NW Mtns of PA at 09Z. Daybreak readings will range from 45F to 50F throughout the higher rural valleys of Central PA, to the mid and upper 50s across the Lower Susq Valley. The aforementioned weak cold front will bring primarily a few to several deg F drop in sfc dewpoints today, yielding another excellent vsby day with abundant sunshine. Sfc and upper level ridge of high pressure will remain over PA for most or all of the daylight hours Friday. This will lead to cooler daytime highs - mainly in the mid to upper 70s.
The weak cold front has pushed through slightly faster than anticipated, and will keep high temperatures in the low to mid 60s for northern Central NY. A weak cold front is pushing through the region early this morning and just kicking off a few isolated sprinkles, but not expecting anymore than a trace of rain from any of these. Ridging begins to build into the area today NW flow advecting in cooler air from the Twin Tiers northward, so high temperatures will be a little cooler this afternoon.
It is a little on the muggy side though with temps already in the mid to upper 70's with dew points in the low 70's. Rain chances remain on the low side today with only a slight chance of a stray shower or storm, primarily along the sea breeze during the late afternoon and evening hours. Rain and storm chances remain on the low side, so will no include any mention of SHRA or TSRA at any of the terminals at this time. High pressure near Bermuda continues to ridge westward over Florida and into the Gulf of Mexico and will dominate the weather with mostly rain-free conditions through the week and into the weekend.
557 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024 (Today) Another very warm/dry day will be on tap for the Tennessee Valley later today, with high pressure remaining established just east of the area. Otherwise, late in the day mid/upper clouds will begin to increase from west to east ahead of the weak cold front.
Temps running just a few degrees warmer today compared to yesterday will allow snow levels to run 5,000 to 5,500 feet, although warmest temp readings will still hold in the mid-40s to low-50s. All of this sets the stage for a significantly warmer day Sat. but it will be short-lived as yet another low pressure system takes aim at the region.
759 AM EDT Thu May 2 2024 (Today through Friday) High pressure continues to dominate the weather pattern across South Florida at the low to mid levels keeping the region under a typical easterly regime. Drier air begins to filter in as a mid-level ridge begins to strengthen in the wake of a weak trough passing through yesterday. Outside of a rouge shower or thunderstorm, prevailing conditions will be quite nice with partly cloudy skies and highs in the lower to mid 80s. Across interior and southwest portions of the area, afternoon highs will be a bit warmer in the upper 80s.
While an isolated strong or severe storm can't be ruled out this morning mainly along the instability axis of SE TX into WCntrl LA, the threat for locally heavy rainfall and localized flooding will be the greatest concern mainly along and S of the I-20 corridor of E TX/N LA before diminishing from W to E later this morning through the afternoon with the departure of this trough. Convection should become more numerous across much of the area Friday with this trough passage, before a lull in the convection occurs Friday night. 15 (Friday Night through Thursday) The unsettled weather pattern will continue through the upcoming weekend, as the flow aloft remains SW beneath the Nrn Plains troughing, before being replaced with the ahead of the next upstream troughing over the Great Basin.
653 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024 Today and Tonight: Continued warmer than normal through tonight despite an increase in cloud over and rain chances. Early morning surface analysis still had a ridge nosing into our CWA from the east. The severe storm threat will end early this evening but rain chances will continue through the night as a cold front approaches from the northwest.
The exiting low pressure system continues to cause upslope precipitation along the Continental Divide around Glacier National Park this morning, so a winter weather highlights remain in effect from snow impacts.
547 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024 (Today through Friday night) A cold front was pushing southward and was just about to move into the Oklahoma Panhandle early this morning. This will advect moist air back into the region behind the cold front. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible through the day given the low level moisture and warm air advection. Friday night, a cold front moves through and this could spark additional showers and thunderstorms. An upper level short wave trough moving across the Panhandles will also aide in the lift department.
403 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024 Today and Tonight: Continued warmer than normal through tonight despite an increase in cloud over and rain chances. Early morning surface analysis still had a ridge nosing into our CWA from the east. The severe storm threat will end early this evening but rain chances will continue through the night as a cold front approaches from the northwest.
Rain and storm chances remain on the low side, so will no include any mention of SHRA or TSRA at any of the terminals at this time. Ridge of high pressure remains in control over the Gulf waters through the period.
(Rest of Today) Another warm and muggy day today as high pressure to our east holds on for a few more hours. Temperatures will soar into the high 80s this afternoon with most locations taping out around 88 degrees.
Upper ridging from the Gulf of Mexico northeast through the Appalachians and on through the northeast will persist through the 7 day forecast.
Dry and mostly clear conditions paired with warmer temperatures through Friday morning. A cooler and wetter storm system will move into western Washington on Friday, and unsettled conditions will continue through the weekend and beyond.
541 AM EDT Thu May 2 2024 - Normal to above normal temperatures through the week, with highs in the 70s and 80s, cooler near Lake Michigan.
739 AM EDT Thu May 2 2024 High pressure builds in for a couple of days before yet another cold front impacts the area over the weekend bringing multiple chances for showers and storms. After the fog mixes out later this morning, ridging will move overhead today.
A weak cold front is pushing through the region early this morning and just kicking off a few isolated sprinkles, but not expecting anymore than a trace of rain from any of these. Ridging begins to build into the area today NW flow advecting in cooler air from the Twin Tiers northward, so high temperatures will be a little cooler this afternoon.
This low chance will be dependent on whether there will be sufficient forcing from mesoscale boundaries to support the development of robust updrafts.
The deep troughing over the western CONUS will continue to slide northeast into south central Canada this weekend as eastern ridging slowly fades and flow becomes more zonal this weekend. Stronger waves will continue to rotate around the parent trough to the north with a brief break in the rain for the weekend as ridging moves in. Ridging will follow the late week rain as cold air advection ahead of the ridge begins to shut off the rain machine by Friday morning behind the cold front.
A short wave trough currently over Texas and Oklahoma will track eastward today and tonight.
Active weather returns this weekend as a weather system drops down bringing showers, mountain snow, isolated thunderstorms, gusty winds and much cooler temperatures.
243 PM MDT Thu May 2 2024 KEY MESSAGES: - Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect for the higher elevations of the Little Rocky Mountains in southwest Phillips County through 4 PM Friday. - Nighttime temperatures will drop below freezing in many areas tonight and Friday night.
TFJ KEY MESSAGES: - *** Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect for the higher elevations of the Little Rocky Mountains in southwest Phillips County through 4 PM Friday. - Cold front this morning brings rain and snow showers with isolated thunderstorms. - Nighttime temperatures will drop below freezing in many areas tonight through Friday night.
(This evening through Friday night) For tonight, the atmosphere has stabilized somewhat behind the latest cold frontal passage which has moved through the forecast area. The best chance for precipitation is expected later Friday night as the cold front moves southward across the region.
309 PM EDT Thu May 2 2024 (This evening through Friday) The weather today will be characterized by a 500 mb ridge positioned over the eastern CONUS. Temperatures this afternoon are forecast to rise to between 8-12 degrees above climatological normals, mainly ranging from the mid 80s in far north Georgia to the low 90s in portions of central Georgia. As this disturbance approaches, a cold front will advance through the Midwest, gradually slowing as it advances towards Kentucky. With dewpoints in the low 60s and high temperatures forecast to be in the low to mid 80s in north Georgia and upper 80s in central Georgia, there will be ample instability to support thunderstorms, especially in the afternoon.
Additional rain chances are expected to persist into the afternoon and evening hours as the upper low pushes off to the east. The deep troughing over the western CONUS will continue to slide northeast into south central Canada this weekend as eastern ridging slowly fades and flow becomes more zonal this weekend. Stronger waves will continue to rotate around the parent trough to the north with a brief break in the rain for the weekend as ridging moves in. Ridging will follow the late week rain as cold air advection ahead of the ridge begins to shut off the rain machine by Friday morning behind the cold front.
(Now through Friday) The forecast area remains between an upper ridge along the east coast and troughing over much of the western CONUS. At the surface, high pressure off the southeast coast will keep southerly flow over the area through the next couple of days. However these storms will generally be short-lived given the influence of the ridge.
- Mild with several chances for showers/storms A persistent long wave trough over the Rockies will send a steady stream of short waves toward the Great Lakes through the period.
Highs are still expected to get to the mid to upper 80s, with even a reading hitting 90 possible this afternoon thanks to the upper ridge thats currently moving eastward.
303 PM EDT Thu May 2 2024 High pressure builds in for a couple of days before yet another cold front impacts the area over the weekend bringing slight chances for showers, but should remain mainly west of ENC.
(Rest of today through Friday) High pressure and ridging in the low to mid levels continues to dominate the weather pattern across South Florida, keeping a typical easterly regime in place. Outside of a rouge shower or thunderstorm, prevailing conditions will be quite nice with partly cloudy skies and highs in the lower to mid 80s. Across interior and southwest portions of the area, afternoon highs will be a bit warmer in the upper 80s.
151 PM EDT Thu May 2 2024 High pressure brings dry weather with a warming trend tonight into Friday. A cold front brings showers and storms as it washes out over the area this weekend. High pressure to our east keeps dry weather conditions across the area through tonight. A dry frontal boundary to our north moves north as a warm front tonight and Friday, positioning the area under a warm sector for the next cold front / low pressure system. Lows will generally be in the mid to lower 60s, with few spots dropping into the upper 50s across the lowlands, ranging into the mid 50s higher elevations. Increasing southerly flow aloft brings WAA for Friday brings hot conditions, with temperatures reaching the upper 80s lowlands, ranging into the lower 70s higher elevations.
1223 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024 (Rest of Today) Another warm and muggy day today as high pressure to our east holds on for a few more hours. Temperatures will soar into the high 80s this afternoon with most locations taping out around 88 degrees.
323 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024 Forecast discussion for routine afternoon forecast issuance - Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will develop ahead of a cold front tonight.
221 PM EDT Thu May 2 2024 High pressure will be in control of the region through tonight with patchy fog and stratus during the early morning and sunrise hours.
105 PM PDT Thu May 2 2024 Warmer temperatures continue today through tomorrow, with periods of showers likely along the Oregon border and breezy winds creating choppy lakes this afternoon.
A few areas may gust up around 20 mph in the high country, but nothing impactful. Similar conditions on Friday with maybe a bit more wind, then, things start to turn windy over the weekend as a strong trough impacts the west.
(Through Friday) Ridging aloft will persist through the near term with high pressure building in at the surface. Tonight, with ridging aloft, a warm inversion above the surface should persist resulting in some fog formation along the Emerald Coast pushing somewhat inland.
Storms are expected to form later this afternoon and evening near the low, where the dry line and front interact. Tomorrow will be slightly cooler for the Big Country, as the cold front keeps winds from the north and east for the start of Friday.
Broad upper ridging extends northeastward through the southeast U.
1258 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024 (Today through Friday night) A cold front was pushing southward and was just about to move into the Oklahoma Panhandle early this morning. This will advect moist air back into the region behind the cold front. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible through the day given the low level moisture and warm air advection. Friday night, a cold front moves through and this could spark additional showers and thunderstorms. An upper level short wave trough moving across the Panhandles will also aide in the lift department.
Instability continues to increase on the south side of a warm front which is advancing northward through the afternoon. 3in) will aid in more widespread shower and embeded thunderstorm development out ahead of the cold front. With the frontal passage and rain/cloud cover, highs will only top out in the low 70s. A cold front will cross the area late tonight into early Friday with rain showers likely.
346 PM EDT Thu May 2 2024 -Warm/dry weather with lower humidity continues for Friday as high pressure slides to the northeast.
426 PM EDT Thu May 2 2024 Low pressure will exit south of the Gulf of Maine early tonight.
206 PM MDT Thu May 2 2024 - A cold front will move through the region on Friday with another round of shower activity in the mountains and isolated thunderstorms over the southern Nebraska panhandle. - Mainly dry and warmer conditions are anticipated for the weekend.