Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
This clipper will bring mainly rain to the area, with a low potential for snowflakes to mix in mainly along and north of Hwy 20 nearer to the cooler air mass. Also, given some steeper lapse rates aloft and lift with the phasing troughs, I can't rule out some lightning in stronger cores, especially along and south of Interstate 80 (this is hinted at in HREF ensembles). Winds will remain gusty out of the northwest, and will advect a cooler, Canadian air mass across the area.
Forecasts lows are in the lower 30s east of I-75 and middle 30s in eastern Indiana and parts of northern Kentucky. With cooler air in place, temperatures are expected to drop down into the 20s across most locations Thursday night. There will be a shield of precipitation north of the low, although how far north that extends is still a bit uncertain. Long wave trough over eastern North America at the beginning of the weekend will pivot northeast leaving the area in west northwest flow.
Seasonably cold air will remain in place through tomorrow with high pressure over the northern Rockies into the Plains. Temperatures will depend on exactly where the axis of the ridge to the west and trough to the east set up. Box and whisker plots are pretty spread out, with about a third of clusters trending warmer, a third trending colder, and the rest in between. Continued to keep temps on the higher side of average but predictability is low and much will depend on cloud cover.
The models continue to show a narrow layer of above freezing air at the surface.
343 AM EST Thu Feb 15 2024 High pressure will generally prevail with dry weather and above normal temperatures through Friday night.
This will push a dry cold front and some cloud cover into Middle TN today. Highs will be mild in the low to mid 60s. Better rain chances will come during the late afternoon into the evening as a cold front approaches from the north. With the cooler air building in we should see lows fall into the 20s Friday night.
Low pressure over far southwest Iowa, measuring about 1010mb at 06z, will deepen about 8mb as it races east, reaching Lake Superior by 7pm EST. Southwest wind this morning quickly ramps up, veering northwest after the cold front passes. For temperatures today, those near the lake may see temperatures briefly kiss 40 degrees before the cold front takes temperatures back down into the 30s for the east of the day.
1053 PM CST Wed Feb 14 2024 (This evening through Thursday) Currently, an upper level trough is moving east into the central and southern plains. The southerly flow will continue to advect moisture into the area overnight, resulting in warmer than normal overnight lows, mainly in the 40s to near 50 degrees. Highs will also be warmer than normal Thursday, warming into the mid 60s to lower 70s.
Warm front continuing across the forecast area this evening for widespread precipitation. There will be a brief break late Thursday morning which will be followed by convective showers as the upper level trough and mid level jet max moves across the forecast area. Satellite imagery shows a well-defined upper low off the coast of Oregon this afternoon, with an accompanying swath of moisture spreading eastward into Idaho. Precipitation will wind down by mid-day Friday as transient upper ridging quickly builds to the west.
1112 PM CST Wed Feb 14 2024 (This evening through Thursday night) 19z WV satellite reveals quasi-zonal flow aloft over the CONUS with a weak upper trough over the Rockies and an upper wave just off the N CA coast. At the surface, lee troughing is occurring ahead of the Rockies wave with southwesterly winds occurring across the Panhandles. Tonight through tomorrow, expect winds to turn around the dial as the weak Rockies trough quickly advances eastward, ushering a very weak cold front south tonight.
75 Previous short-term discussion: (This afternoon through Thursday) A broad low-level ridge is encompassing much of the eastern CONUS with a mostly zonal flow pattern aloft sending mild and dry continental air across Central Alabama. Temperatures will trend warmer over the next couple of days with sunny skies expected. Efficient mixing of the dry airmass is causing dewpoints to run on the lower side of guidance, so the trends have been updated.
1113 PM CST Wed Feb 14 2024 Mid evening surface analysis showed high pressure centered east of Mississippi resulting in a very light return flow. Southwesterly return flow will help dewpoints climb into the low 50s by Thursday, with PWs climbing to around a half inch on Thursday.
1145 PM CST Wed Feb 14 2024 - Breezy conditions will occur with a mostly dry cold frontal passage Thursday with winds gusting 20 to 25 mph. - The second and more significant cold front will bring our next chance of precipitation Friday and, following the front, a potential change-over to snow resulting in a light dusting, with the best chances for minor accumulations along the I-64 corridor.
Temperatures along the Island Chain are in the upper 60s to lower 70s with dew points in the lower to mid 60s. From synopsis, high pressure over the Southeastern states will slide offshore on Thursday, then move further offshore into the western Atlantic through Friday.
Skies will turn cloudy by afternoon as high clouds stream across in advance of our next cold front due to arrive Friday.
1012 PM MST Wed Feb 14 2024 - Patchy freezing fog (possibly dense?) along the CO/KS border a few hours either side of sunrise Thursday.
Also late tonight into Thursday morning the cold front is expected to move into Northeast Oklahoma. low temperatures tonight should be warmer compared to this mornings lows with upper 30s to mid 40s forecast.
(Today) Weak cool front, currently moving into north-central Oklahoma this morning, will continue pushing south today and will likely stall in the higher terrain across southeast Oklahoma/west-central Arkansas this afternoon.
Mass fields will respond to a deepening Plains cyclone, however, with moisture/thermal advection increasing Thurs into Fri. By Fri, another low-amplitude mid-level wave will approach with a sfc cyclone developing along a boundary draped to our NW. As this boundary sinks Swrd into AR, the sfc cyclone will propagate along it and support stronger downstream moisture advection with dewpoint temps climbing into the mid/upper 50s F for much of AR by afternoon.
1142 PM CST Wed Feb 14 2024 (Tonight) Roses are red, violets are blue, we have a Valentine's Day poem forecast for you! Clear and calm all through the night thanks to high pressure to the north, just out of sight. High pressure will continue to translate to the east, helping winds and clouds to completely cease. Slightly warmer tonight thanks to southerly return flow, with near 40 degrees forecast, as tonight's low.
1045 PM CST Wed Feb 14 2024 -Cold front moves through tonight, with some sprinkles possible. A lack of deep moisture will likely inhibit much in the way of rain development, but have included sprinkles across eastern KS as an associated cold front moves through the CWA. Tomorrow will be cooler as high pressure builds in from the north. The temperature profile will mainly be below freezing, supporting a chance for snow, or perhaps some drizzle depending on how deeply saturated the column can remain. A few slick spots may result until temperatures warm above freezing by midday.
524 AM EST Thu Feb 15 2024 High pressure will shift off to the east with a fast moving low and associated cold front bringing some rain showers and breezy conditions to the area today. Southward trailing cold front to pass east thru ILN/s FA by 21Z. QPF will be light and generally less than a tenth of an inch, with the highest totals across the northern counties. A shield of precipitation north of the low, will spread across the area Friday afternoon. High temperatures to range from the lower 30s northwest to the lower 40s southeast.
Additional moisture arrives through west northwest flow this afternoon mainly for the higher elevations. An upper level trough over Wyoming diving south along with a cold front starts to affect the area Friday afternoon. Accent from the approaching trough and frontogenesis will help produce snow across the high country and across the Front Range. West-northwest ridge top flow and an easterly low level flow across the plains will add orographic lift.
Rain chances return Friday as a cold front moves across the area.
(Today and tonight) This morning's 850mb RAP analysis shows weak ridging over the area following the departure of a weak trough axis, with west northwest surface winds. Downsloping winds will once again give way to ample warming today, but temperatures may be a few degrees cooler than yesterday given the potential high clouds. All in all temperatures will still warm to above normal in the mid to upper 60s and a few areas warming into the lower 70s, especially off the Caprock. Tonight, the lee cyclone will continue to strengthen as it pushes southeast into northwest Oklahoma. Surface winds will begin to veer to the west with the approaching cold front from the north.
522 AM CST Thu Feb 15 2024 (Today) Weak cool front, currently moving into north-central Oklahoma this morning, will continue pushing south today and will likely stall in the higher terrain across southeast Oklahoma/west-central Arkansas this afternoon.
By Friday this ridge will be directly overhead, allowing for dry and mild conditions across the region, as well as slightly warmer than normal temperatures.
These features aide in pushing a cold front through the region by early afternoon Friday.
632 AM EST Thu Feb 15 2024 High pressure will shift off to the east with a fast moving low and associated cold front bringing some rain showers and breezy conditions to the area today. Southward trailing cold front to pass east thru ILN/s FA by 21Z. QPF will be light and generally less than a tenth of an inch, with the highest totals across the northern counties. A shield of precipitation north of the low, will spread across the area Friday afternoon. High temperatures to range from the lower 30s northwest to the lower 40s southeast.
The highest chances (60% to near 80%) will be north of the Tri-Cities. - Some rain and freezing rain is possible (20% to 30% chance) along the leading edge of the precipitation impacting mainly north central Kansas.
Overnight lows will range from the lower 50s in the west to upper 40s in the east.
308 AM CST Thu Feb 15 2024 - Temperatures today will be 15 degrees cooler than yesterday, with these seasonal temperatures for the remainder of the week.
- A cold front Friday morning will traverse the region from north to south. Highs across eastern Nebraska and southwest Iowa may reach into the low 60s. The cold front that moved through the region yesterday evening has pushed south and east into the southern Plains and the mid- Mississippi River Valley. By this evening, a longwave trough is expected to move out into the central Plains. As this low pressure system develops and moves southeast into the central and southern Plains, a frontogenetic band of snow is expected to develop from western South Dakota into western Iowa by 9 pm this evening. By midnight tonight, a reinforcing cold front will surge south through Nebraska and western Iowa. Post-frontal temperatures will be near seasonal norms with high temperatures in the low to mid 30s, and low temperatures in the teens.
528 AM CST Thu Feb 15 2024 (Today and tonight) This morning's 850mb RAP analysis shows weak ridging over the area following the departure of a weak trough axis, with west northwest surface winds. Downsloping winds will once again give way to ample warming today, but temperatures may be a few degrees cooler than yesterday given the potential high clouds. All in all temperatures will still warm to above normal in the mid to upper 60s and a few areas warming into the lower 70s, especially off the Caprock. Tonight, the lee cyclone will continue to strengthen as it pushes southeast into northwest Oklahoma. Surface winds will begin to veer to the west with the approaching cold front from the north.
Another area of low pressure will track south of the state Friday night, likely producing a light snowfall across Southern Pennsylvania. Model soundings look just cold enough for wet snow over the N Mtns, where an inch or so of accumulation looks likely, especially over the high terrain. Gusty winds should last into the first half of Friday, then the gradient should relax, as low pressure lifts into the Canadian Maritimes. Fair and seasonable weather with diminishing winds appear likely Friday, as low amplitude ridging builds over the state.
429 AM EST Thu Feb 15 2024 High pressure will move over Pennsylvania tonight. Another area of low pressure will likely track south of the state Friday night. Expect min temps at dawn to range from the low teens in the normally colder rural valleys of Central and Northern PA, to the low 20s in the more urbanized locations of the Lower Susq Valley. Model soundings look marginally cold enough for wet snow over the N Mtns, where an inch or so of accumulation looks likely, especially over the high terrain. Gusty winds should last into the first half of Friday, then the gradient should relax, as low pressure lifts into the Canadian Maritimes. Fair and seasonable weather with diminishing winds appear likely Friday, as low amplitude ridging builds over the state.
Another beautiful day today with highs in the upper 60s across most of the CWA (with the exception of the higher elevations where temps will be limited to the high 50s). Temps are only expected to fall into the low 40s rather than the near freezing temperatures that we've seen over the past few days.
703 AM EST Thu Feb 15 2024 High pressure will cross the region today. Low pressure will cross the Gulf of Maine tonight, then exit east of Nova Scotia Friday.
524 AM CST Thu Feb 15 2024 (Today and tonight) A weak cold front continues to progress southward early this morning but will begin to slow and weaken through the day as it nears the Red River. Temperatures will be a bit cooler today across northern Oklahoma with lingering cold air advection, while southern Oklahoma and our Texas counties see highs similar to yesterday, in the upper 60s to near 70.
303 AM CST Thu Feb 15 2024 - Strong cold front to move through tonight bringing below normal temps for Fri and Sat in addition to some light snow late tonight into Fri morning.
648 AM EST Thu Feb 15 2024 High pressure will generally prevail with dry weather and above normal temperatures through Friday night.
(Today and tonight) A weak cold front continues to progress southward early this morning but will begin to slow and weaken through the day as it nears the Red River. Temperatures will be a bit cooler today across northern Oklahoma with lingering cold air advection, while southern Oklahoma and our Texas counties see highs similar to yesterday, in the upper 60s to near 70.
430 AM CST Thu Feb 15 2024 (Thursday through Friday) An area of low pressure is present this morning across the Upper Midwest, extending a cold front southward across the Southern Plains. This is already noticeable on satellite this morning as area high cloud transverse banding moves from west to east across the FA, thanks to Pacific moisture transport via an upper trough working across the Baja Peninsula and into Western Mexico. Overnight, temperatures will follow a similar trend by prevailing a few degrees warmer, with lows in the mid to upper 50's. In return, this will help to push the associated cold front through the ArkLaTex, with a cold airmass in the wake of the boundary.
427 AM EST Thu Feb 15 2024 High pressure will shift off to the east with a fast moving low and associated cold front bringing some rain showers and breezy conditions to the area today. Southward trailing cold front to pass east thru ILN/s FA by 21Z. QPF will be light and generally less than a tenth of an inch, with the highest totals across the northern counties. A shield of precipitation north of the low, will spread across the area Friday afternoon. High temperatures to range from the lower 30s northwest to the lower 40s southeast.
513 AM EST Thu Feb 15 2024 High pressure will cross the region today. Low pressure will cross the Gulf of Maine tonight, then exit east of Nova Scotia Friday.
601 AM CST Thu Feb 15 2024 - Strong cold front to move through tonight bringing below normal temps for Fri and Sat in addition to some light snow late tonight into Fri morning.
415 AM MST Thu Feb 15 2024 - Snow showers are expected today and tonight over the higher mountain peaks and parts of the Continental Divide.
Temperatures along the island chain are around 70 degrees, with dewpoints in the lower to mid 60s, and winds from the NE to E around 10 mph. Surface analysis depicts high pressure centered along the Carolina coast, with the Keys lying in moderate NE to E flow to the south of this high. Aloft, generally zonal flow prevails over the central and eastern CONUS, with the subtropical ridge suppressed southward into the Caribbean Sea. Today will see partly sunny skies and warmer temps, with the dry and stable airmass continuing to prevent any rainfall along the island chain.
557 AM CST Thu Feb 15 2024 - Temperatures today will be 15 degrees cooler than yesterday, with these seasonal temperatures for the remainder of the week.
High pressure has moved off the Carolina coastline and continues to ridge over Florida producing rain-free conditions, east-southeast winds and warm temperatures. High pressure will hold over the waters through the end of the week with pleasant weather expected. An area of low pressure and frontal boundary will move through the eastern gulf waters over the weekend bringing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms to the area.
With the eastward translation of trough influence, heights increase over the Northern Rockies and Northern Plains.
427 AM EST Thu Feb 15 2024 High pressure shifts off the Mid Atlantic coast today. Low pressure crosses the Great Lakes, dragging a frontal system across the Appalachians today.
This is due to troughing over Oklahoma with attendant frontal passage that will occur late tomorrow, bringing temperature maximums/minimums back from the milder 70s/50s into the 50s/30s respectively (near normal if not slightly colder than normal).
(This afternoon through Friday night) The Big Story is the timing and temperature impacts of a shallow Arctic cold front Friday.
/16/ (Thursday through Friday) An area of low pressure is present this morning across the Upper Midwest, extending a cold front southward across the Southern Plains. This is already noticeable on satellite this morning as area high cloud transverse banding moves from west to east across the FA, thanks to Pacific moisture transport via an upper trough working across the Baja Peninsula and into Western Mexico. Overnight, temperatures will follow a similar trend by prevailing a few degrees warmer, with lows in the mid to upper 50's. In return, this will help to push the associated cold front through the ArkLaTex, with a cold airmass in the wake of the boundary.
323 PM EST Thu Feb 15 2024 High pressure will generally prevail with dry weather and above normal temperatures through Friday night.
A cold front is currently moving across southeast Missouri through western Arkansas and into extreme north Texas. Rain chances return Friday as a cold front moves across the area.
Water vapor imagery highlights a large mean layer ridge centered over Central America. The base of a long wave trough to the west of the Baja has a supergeostrophic jet arcing northeast and east across the northern Gulf Coast.
Even with this boundary in place, quasi-zonal flow aloft will result in another warm day with highs expected to climb into the lower 60s to lower 70s across the forecast area today. More seasonable air will start to move in behind the boundary with highs only in the lower 50s over the north Friday with 60s/lower 70s elsewhere.
1002 AM EST Thu Feb 15 2024 High pressure will generally prevail with dry weather and above normal temperatures through Friday night.
1056 AM EST Thu Feb 15 2024 High pressure shifts off the Mid Atlantic coast today. Low pressure crosses the Great Lakes, dragging a frontal system across the Appalachians today.
1032 AM EST Thu Feb 15 2024 High pressure will shift off to the east with a fast moving low and associated cold front bringing some rain showers and breezy conditions to the area today. A shield of precipitation north of the low, will spread across the area Friday afternoon. High temperatures to range from the lower 30s northwest to the lower 40s southeast.
1258 PM EST Thu Feb 15 2024 High pressure will shift off to the east with a fast moving low and associated cold front bringing some rain showers and breezy conditions to the area today. A shield of precipitation north of the low, will spread across the area Friday afternoon. High temperatures to range from the lower 30s northwest to the lower 40s southeast.
246 PM EST Thu Feb 15 2024 High pressure will cross the region this evening. Low pressure will cross the Gulf of Maine later tonight into Friday morning, then exit south of Nova Scotia Friday afternoon.
1207 PM CST Thu Feb 15 2024 (Today and tonight) A weak cold front continues to progress southward early this morning but will begin to slow and weaken through the day as it nears the Red River. Temperatures will be a bit cooler today across northern Oklahoma with lingering cold air advection, while southern Oklahoma and our Texas counties see highs similar to yesterday, in the upper 60s to near 70.
In addition, low-level moisture continues to increase with southerly flow in the lower levels and have seen some low-clouds also develop. In addition to the low clouds, could see some possible patchy fog for portions of the area by morning. For today, temperatures will warm up nicely with highs today in the lower to middle 70s for most locations. The high- res models then show this "precip" expanding to the northeast through the rest of the tonight period into Friday. Nevertheless, should see some increasing rain across the southern CWA with the intensity slowly increasing as the low-level saturate.
1133 AM CST Thu Feb 15 2024 - Temperatures today will be 15 degrees cooler than yesterday, with these seasonal temperatures for the remainder of the week.
As an upper level trough moves east through the northern and central plains later tonight, a strong cold front will move south into our northern counties by early Friday morning, and possibly sooner as models often have trouble handling the strength of shallow, arctic air masses.
- Temps perceptibly cooler this weekend, although still near normal. However a large mean trough across the eastern half of the CONUS will follow leading to dry weather and perceptibly cooler but seasonal temps into the weekend.
(This afternoon through Friday) High pressure to the south of the area will slowly move east through the short term as a low pressure moves into the Ohio Valley late Friday. Winds Friday will be breezy ahead of that low pressure system, with gusts in the 15-20 mph range beginning in the afternoon and lasting through the evening.
The main changes with this system were to slow the onset slightly, shift the axis of higher POPS south to I-80, and increased the QPF about a tenth inch in the main snow band areas, which is the driving factor in the higher snow amounts. At this time, the higher snow amounts will be along a line from Williamsburg to Kewanee with another south of Keokuk and Macomb. Lows tonight will be in the 20s, with highs Friday getting back into the lower and middle 30s.
247 PM EST Thu Feb 15 2024 Dry high pressure will remain over the area through Friday.
Issued by National Weather Service Norman OK 1056 AM CST Thu Feb 15 2024 (Today) Weak cool front, currently moving into north-central Oklahoma this morning, will continue pushing south today and will likely stall in the higher terrain across southeast Oklahoma/west-central Arkansas this afternoon.
1229 PM EST Thu Feb 15 2024 High pressure will generally prevail with dry weather and above normal temperatures through Friday night.