Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Mostly dry conditions expected Wednesday in the wake of a cold front. KEY MESSAGES: - Isolated showers and storms expected before midnight - Fog expected between 2am and 8am - Mostly dry conditions expected Wednesday --------------------------------------------------------------- A passing cold front over northern Ohio will continue to produce isolated thunderstorms and showers over the next 3 hours.
805 PM EDT Tue Jul 1 2025 Rather messy pattern setting up for the next several days as upper level troughing sets up along the eastern seaboard with a weakening cool front moving into the southeast states.
724 PM EDT Tue Jul 1 2025 - Becoming mostly clear tonight; Cooler and less humid.
Meanwhile, a low level ridge axis is slowly returning to our area from the southeast thanks in part due to the TUTT moving further north. Since rain has sparsely affected the Keys this morning, temperatures are starkly warmer this time than yesterday. In addition to the SAL, we will once again have a southerly steering flow during the daytime, which acts to suppress convection across the Lower and Middle Keys. Thereafter, eyes turn to a quasi- stalled trough currently across the eastern third of the U.
PWs have taken a sharp decrease as well, and high pressure will remain in control through the remainder of the short-term period as the drier air mass settles into the area.
The mid-level high pressure system that has brought in bouts of showers/thunderstorms in the last few days will begin to moving westward across Texas through Thursday. Looking ahead into the upcoming week, a weak inverted trough in the northern Gulf will increase chances for precipitation (20-30%) for tropical-like showers and thunderstorms, bringing periods of moderate to heavy rainfall rates and gust winds. Confidence will depend greatly on the location of this inverted trough axis (if location south of Louisiana waters, increased confidence). The highest chance (30-55%)of rain will be across LRD and COT TAF sites overnight through Wednesday afternoon.
The two main drivers of this pattern will be upper- level ridging that will shift from the Plains eastward toward the Mid-South and a low pressure disturbance slowly drifting west along the Gulf Coast region. Subsidence associated with the ridge and the southward trajectory of drier continental air between these two features should push regional PWAT values below 1.
High pressure over northern TX will build through the week, allowing subsidence and diminishing chances of showers. By Thursday, upper- level ridging over central US will allow for evacuation of moisture in the mid-levels, leaving a low chance (<15%) of showers and allowing for partly sunny skies. With clearing cloud cover following upper-level ridging, highs begin to return to near-normal late week, with highs in the low 90s Thursday. The low-level moisture leaves apparent temperatures in the 90s to mid-100s today, and will continue to increase by 2-5 degF through the period.
* Mostly sunny Independence Day, with afternoon highs in the low 90s.
1019 PM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025 - Seasonable temperatures and dry conditions will persist through Thursday with warmer and more humid conditions returning on the 4th of July into the holiday weekend.
1052 PM MDT Tue Jul 1 2025 KEY MESSAGES: - Hot conditions remain in place through Thursday, before turning cooler for the holiday weekend. WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: An upper ridge will be building across the region over the next few days, bringing hot and dry weather through midweek. Thursday afternoon looks to be a few degrees cooler due to increased cloud cover, but this will limit overnight recovery. Ensembles show upper ridging sliding east ahead of the next low pressure system for the midweek.
-A brief break from showers and thunderstorms looks possible for the Western Panhandles for the upcoming holiday and cloud see increasing temperatures with highs returning to the lower 90s.
An upper trough will be in place over the West Coast today, with an upper ridge over the Front Range, and northwest flow over the Great Plains. Southerly winds will advect warmer air into the region today. Expected highs will range from the low to mid-90s, with lows tonight in the mid-60s to low 70s. The ridge will shift east on Thursday, with another day of hot temps expected.
Latest satellite imagery and mesoanalysis show the mid-level ridge building over our region while remnants of Barry continue to move across the South/Central Texas. Locally, the influence of the ridge is bringing a drier airmass that will persist through the rest of the week. Ridging aloft also means hotter conditions. With south to southeasterly surface flow bringing warmer and more humid Gulf air, afternoon heat index reaching up to 107F can be expected through the weekend.
(Today through Thursday) Models depict a trough/low complex over the E CONUS with an associated sfc frontal boundary pushing SE and into the Florida panhandle today. Heat indices could reach the low 100s, especially over interior and southwest areas.
Pronounced upper level ridging will maintain a mostly dry and increasingly hot pattern for the ArkLaTex through the remainder of the week, going into the holiday weekend. Tonight, under partly cloudy skies, lows look to only drop into the lower 70s north and mid to upper 70s elsewhere. Another round of low to middle 90s are in store Wednesday afternoon, while the subsident effects of an upper level high should inhibit afternoon thunderstorm development. Thursday afternoon may see a few isolated thunderstorms push up from the south, with impacts, if any, largely confined to the Toledo Bend area, while highs once again climb into the low to middle 90s.
An upper level low over the western CONUS will begin to funnel moisture into the region.
(Today and Tonight) High pressure ridge over the Southern Plains today, though low level moisture will begin to increase in parts of the area this afternoon, mainly closer to I-35.
Aloft, the H500 ridge remains stretched from the Inter-mountain west to the Mid-Mississippi Valley. Temperatures have been seasonable, in the lower to mid 80s F. Previous discussion touched on the uncertainty in the break down and eastward shift of the mid-level ridge axis. This has been precipitated by the stout western trough's onshore arrival to the California Coast. This trend will continue through Thursday and into July Fourth as the H500 ridge axis sharpens over the Central Plains before moving east, heavily influenced by the long wave trough impinging toward the Rockies.
112 AM EDT Wed Jul 2 2025 A cold front will move east across the area this afternoon. High pressure will build into the region tonight and Wednesday behind the cold front. Another cold front will move southeast across the area on Thursday.
114 AM PDT Wed Jul 2 2025 * Widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected today as a low pressure system moves through.
Subsidence aloft associated with the eastern limb of sprawling high pressure centered over the Lower Mississippi Valley should serve to suppress any additional diurnal showery activity over the lowlands today, but couldn't completely rule out an afternoon shower or thunderstorm over the higher terrain where parcels may be able to locally overcome the subsidence inversion via elevated heat source. With moist ground conditions again tonight, except valley fog to form again fairly early in the overnight, although some mixing out may be possible across the north heading into the morning commute as gradients begin to tighten as high pressure begins to be suppressed southward. Quiet conditions are expected heading into the holiday weekend with a weak and likely dry backdoor cold front expected during the day Thursday.
A larger upper level low will shift southeast on Thursday, with a sharper cold front that will produce additional showers and thunderstorms late Thursday morning into the evening. Thursday will bring the next chance for showers and possible thunderstorms as an upper level trough, vorticity advection and a surface cold front are all expected to cross the area. Modest shear and instability will exist as a cold front moves southeastward across our area, and will have a decent jet structure overhead.
At the same time, a closed low off the central California coast will eject eastward, injecting some dynamics into the situation by Wednesday afternoon.
140 AM EDT Wed Jul 2 2025 A cold front will move through the region tonight bringing an end to any showers and thunderstorms. Wednesday should be a pleasant day under high pressure. Yet another cold front passes through Thursday. This front is followed by high pressure building in again for the end of the week. A cold front will sweep through the region tonight. Cooler and drier advects in tonight allowing for quick clearing. After starting out in the low 60's highs look to end up in the low to mid 80's. Yet another cold front starts to approach the region Wednesday night but the timing is centered on Thursday. Lows look slightly warmer Wednesday night. Ahead of a cold front Thursday afternoon another round of scattered showers and thunderstorms should develop.
1223 AM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025 - Warming temperatures through the end of this week with hot temperatures reaching the low to mid 90s by the Fourth of July.
157 AM EDT Wed Jul 2 2025 High pressure will work into the region.
(Today) A cold front that brought showers and storms to the area yesterday has pushed to the south of the forecast area into portions of central AL.
While the National Hurricane Center has a 40% chance of this low developing into a subtropical or tropical depression somewhere in the vicinity of Florida, the impacts to west-central and southwest Florida looks to be deep moisture and prolonged rainy conditions regardless of if tropical development happens. This will result in some areas seeing heavy rain and potentially minor flooding, with the highest rain totals expected along the coast.
Discussion: The longwave trough axis is located across the region this morning and it should move east of the area by 15z.
Thus, we still expect isolated to scattered storms to develop onto the lower elevations with a bit more surface heating. For Wednesday, the center of the upper level ridge will shift eastward across the forecast area. While a few showers/weak storms are still expected over the mountains, the plains will almost certainly stay dry with southerly flow aloft keeping the convection confined to the high country. For Thursday, we're still on track to see a plume of sub-tropical moisture move northward into Colorado, in the southerly flow between the upper level high shifting into the Southern Plains and a weak trough lifting across the Desert Southwest. Most have the Desert Southwest trough ejecting northeast across the forecast area by mid day, while a few are still slower.
- An upper level ridge building in will provide hot and humid conditions. (Tonight through Thursday night) Modest surface ridging across the central Gulf easing to slack troughing across Central America and TX is allowing light SW breezes this evening. While there is a flux of Gulf moisture pulled into the low levels, overall dewpoints aren't impressive enough to support much organized convection.
This trough will remain as a boundary across the area on Thursday before high pressure builds in from the north.
Per surface obs, the cold front is near the southern portions of the area, so dry air will begin to filter in throughout the day. Most of the residual moisture will be focused across our far south and southeast where some isolated to scattered showers or storms may develop this afternoon, but it really looks like most of the area will stay dry as subsidence begins to increase with a broad ridge building to our west. Sunny and hot conditions are expected on Thursday with the ridge axis centered over the Plains and ArkLaTex region.
235 AM EDT Wed Jul 2 2025 High pressure brings sunny skies and dry weather to the region today. Another cold front passes through the area Thursday, bringing a chance for scattered showers and storms. High pressure moves in behind the front, bringing wonderful weather for the 4th of July. A brief period of quiet weather is expected Today into Thursday as a mid level ridge builds into the region. NW flow behind the exiting cold front will keep temperatures today in the upper 70s to mid 80s. Ahead of a cold front Thursday afternoon another round of scattered showers and thunderstorms should develop.
- Cooler than normal temperatures continue today with highs in the mid 70s to low 80s region wide.
235 AM EDT Wed Jul 2 2025 A cold front will move east keep a few showers and storms around into Wednesday mainly east of the mountains. Slightly cooler and less humid air will move into the region by Thursday, followed by a seasonally warm holiday weekend. Another wave aloft expected will bring another round of scattered showers and storms along/east of the Blue Ridge today with higher pops along/east of US Highway 29 from Lynchburg to Danville, then south into the northwest Piedmont of NC. With clearing skies Wed night and somewhat cooler temps and wet ground, not out of the question to have areas of fog form, and may be dense, especially in the mountains.
Drier and warmer conditions return for the holiday weekend. A closed low continues to remain to the west of the area this morning but is expected to lift and cross the region over the next 36 hours or so. With the ridge situated to our east, we will continue to have a strong southerly fetch and advection of moisture into the region. As the low pushes to the east, it will bring in some enhanced dynamics and help to provide additional lift to the region. Similar conditions exist for Thursday, but as the low/trough pushes further east, we will see some drier air start to push into our western areas and PWATs will drop down closer to 0.
722 AM EDT Wed Jul 2 2025 (Today through Thursday) Models depict a trough/low complex over the E CONUS with an associated sfc frontal boundary pushing SE and into the Florida panhandle today. Heat indices could reach the low 100s, especially over interior and southwest areas.
651 AM EDT Wed Jul 2 2025 A cold front will move east keeping a few showers and storms around today mainly east of the mountains. Slightly cooler and less humid air will move into the region by Thursday, followed by a seasonally warm holiday weekend. Another wave aloft expected will bring another round of scattered showers and storms along/east of the Blue Ridge today with higher pops along/east of US Highway 29 from Lynchburg to Danville, then south into the northwest Piedmont of NC. With clearing skies Wed night and somewhat cooler temps and wet ground, not out of the question to have areas of fog form, and may be dense, especially in the mountains.
523 AM MDT Wed Jul 2 2025 - Showers and thunderstorms will once again form over the higher terrain this afternoon, with lightning and outflow winds capable of gusting in excess of 50 mph the primary concerns.
For today, models show the developing ridge axis strengthening and extending northward out of Texas into southern Wyoming. This ridge axis is expected to drift eastward slowly, which should suppress deep convection across the eastern plains for much of the day. There is also no noticeable forcing today, so expect single cell thunderstorms across the higher terrain of southeast Wyoming this afternoon through this evening. Models show a broad eastern Pacific trough moving into the Great Basin Region and finally into the Rocky Mountain area Thursday afternoon. This feature is expected to advect some subtropical moisture ahead of the trough as PWATs increase between 1.
A weak trough will move through the area into the end of the week with increasing onshore flow and cooler temperatures into the holiday weekend.
559 AM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025 (Today) A cold front that brought showers and storms to the area yesterday has pushed to the south of the forecast area into portions of central AL.
Current water vapor imagery shows moisture associated with weak ridge topping wave over MT/WY. Upper ridge remains in place through today with low level thermal ridge ensuring a very warm to hot afternoon. Highs this afternoon will be in the 90s across the lower elevations of the plains while the Black Hills will see temperatures in the low to mid 80s. The ridge should also limit convective activity this afternoon, though modest instability (HREF paints 60-80% probs for 1500+ J/kg SBCAPE over the western SD plains) and terrain influences could support an isolated storm or two over the Black Hills and the higher elevations in northern WY. Ridge axis remains overhead on Thursday with even warmer temperatures across the CWA.
1021 AM EDT Wed Jul 2 2025 A cold front will move east keeping a few showers and storms around today mainly east of the mountains. Slightly cooler and less humid air will move into the region by Thursday, followed by a seasonally warm holiday weekend. Surface cold front extends from ACY-DAN-ATL. For this afternoon, forecast reflects scattered showers and storms along/east of the Blue Ridge with higher pops along/east of US Highway 29 from Lynchburg to Danville, then south into the northern Piedmont of NC. With clearing skies tonightt and somewhat cooler temps and wet ground, not out of the question to have areas of fog form, and may be dense, especially in the mountain valleys.
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Upper ridging will maintain hot weather conditions for today with afternoon highs expected to soar well into the 90s to around 100 for much of NE Montana. That is, until a trough and much cooler temperatures arrive by the weekend. FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: NBM was largely used here for the forecast population, but nudged warmer today for temperatures to capture expected trends.
The CAMs have struggled to pickup on this activity that is being driven by a combination of residual outflows, mid level stretching deformation and upper level divergence ahead of a trough near the southern California coast.
Subsidence aloft associated with the eastern limb of sprawling high pressure centered over the Lower Mississippi Valley should serve to suppress any additional diurnal showery activity over the lowlands today, but couldn't completely rule out an afternoon shower or thunderstorm over the higher terrain where parcels may be able to locally overcome the subsidence inversion via elevated heat source. With moist ground conditions again tonight, expect valley fog to form again fairly early in the overnight, although some mixing out may be possible across the north heading into the morning commute as gradients begin to tighten as high pressure begins to be suppressed southward. Quiet conditions are expected heading into the holiday weekend with a weak and likely dry backdoor cold front expected during the day Thursday.
508 AM PDT Wed Jul 2 2025 * Widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected today as a low pressure system moves through.
Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms have persisted across two portions of our marine district, mainly over the Gulf waters beyond 20 nm north of the Lower Keys and the eastern Straits and Florida Bay. We see no reason for this layer to round the western edge of the lower tropospheric riding over the western north Atlantic with subsequent decrease in rain chances over the following 24 to 36 hours. South winds were Broad low-level ridging will continue to rebuild over the North Atlantic and support gentle to occasionally moderate east to southeasterly breezes across Florida Keys coastal waters, veering to the southeast to south and modestly slackening throughout the week.
307 AM MDT Wed Jul 2 2025 - Showers and thunderstorms will once again form over the higher terrain this afternoon, with lightning and outflow winds capable of gusting in excess of 50 mph the primary concerns.
(Rest of Today and Tonight) A cold front that previously brought showers and storms to the area last night has pushed southeastward through the Tennessee Valley.
551 AM EDT Wed Jul 2 2025 High pressure will work into the region.
The mid-level high pressure system that has brought in bouts of showers/thunderstorms in the last few days will begin to moving westward across Texas through Thursday. Looking ahead into the upcoming week, a weak inverted trough in the northern Gulf will increase chances for precipitation (20-30%) for tropical-like showers and thunderstorms, bringing periods of moderate to heavy rainfall rates and gust winds. Confidence will depend greatly on the location of this inverted trough axis (if location south of Louisiana waters, increased confidence).
A large upper level low will shift southeast on Thursday, with a sharper cold front that will produce additional showers and thunderstorms late Thursday morning into the evening. Thursday will bring the next chance for showers and possible thunderstorms as an upper level trough, vorticity advection and a surface cold front are all expected to cross the area. Modest shear and instability will exist as a cold front moves southeastward across our area, and will have a decent jet structure overhead.
Onshore flow returns today which will bring in cooler and more moist air.
1159 AM MDT Wed Jul 2 2025 - Showers and thunderstorms will once again form over the higher terrain this afternoon, with lightning and outflow winds capable of gusting in excess of 50 mph the primary concerns.
Our attention will then turn to the return of seasonable heat for early July, with highs in the low 90s returning tomorrow afternoon.
- Independence Day is expected to be dry with high temperatures in the low to mid-90s. Overall, much calmer weather is in store through Thursday as high pressure stays in control and drier air is in place. (Thursday Night through next Wednesday) By the Fourth of July, upper-level ridging remains in place, leading to a steady increase in daily high temperatures. High temperatures for Independence Day will warm into the low- to mid-90s and continue to warm into the holiday weekend.
- The Fourth of July is forecast to be hot and humid with temperatures in the low to mid 90s and heat indices near 100. Temperatures continue their warming trend, reaching the low 90s by the afternoon.
High pressure aloft and at the surface continue to slowly build east into the region, as a mid/upper level trough slowly exits east of the forecast area. This trough is responsible for a frontal boundary that continues to slowly sink south through the CWA this evening and overnight. While along and ahead of it, very humid conditions will persist, with some isolated showers and storms developing, particularly along and south of the Highway 84 corridor. On Thursday, northwest flow aloft will exist across the region as we remain between the departing trough along the east coast and the high to the west. Otherwise, the remainder of the forecast area will remain dry, as highs warm into the low and middle 90s.
304 PM EDT Wed Jul 2 2025 A cold front is expected to move into the area today and could then linger along or just off the coast through the weekend. As of mid afternoon, visible satellite and sfc observations indicated that a sea breeze was advancing inland across the coastal counties as a cold front was pushing from the Carolina Foothills. 1 inches between the sea breeze and cold front. High resolution guidance indicates that clusters of thunderstorms will initial develop near the sea breeze this afternoon, then coverage should increase as the cold front nears from the west. Close to 2000 J/kg CAPE expected to develop during the afternoon with highs in the low 90s and dewpoints in the mid 70s.
300 PM EDT Wed Jul 2 2025 High pressure will build across the region Thursday with dry weather expected for the upcoming Holiday weekend. Key Messages: 1) Lingering shower/storm potential along and east of the Blue Ridge this evening. High pressure building into the forecast area from the northwest. Dew points may be a little lighter on July 4, with values as low as the upper 50s along and west of the Blue Ridge, but these will recover into the 60s by the weekend. 500mb heights will build up as a large upper level ridge forms and stretches over the southwestern CONUS.
211 PM MDT Wed Jul 2 2025 - Warm Thursday with high temperatures in the high 80s to mid 90s.