Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
600 PM CDT Wed Jul 24 2024 (This evening through Thursday) A 599 dam mid-level ridge will remain centered across the western U. with a weakness in the ridge across the Arklatex. Otherwise, with the weakness in the ridge and the attendant low- level thermal ridge remaining to the west, temperatures will remain near to slightly below-average in the low to mid 90s deg F.
(Rest of tonight) There will be essentially no change in the synoptic environment across the TN Valley overnight, as WSW flow aloft of 10-20 knots will continue within the gradient between a mid-level subtropical ridge retrograding southwestward into the central Gulf of Mexico and a weak trough of low pressure centered across the Arklatex.
Showers and storms will decrease and end overnight in our CWA from west to east behind this evening's cold front.
High pressure nosed across mainland Florida will continue to promote moderate east to southeast winds, however some locations have seen a higher wind reduction than originally expected likely due to outflow from previous convection. From synopsis, a ridge associated with expansive high pressure over the North Atlantic will remain north of the Florida Keys coastal waters, resulting in moderate east to southeast breezes prevailing across the Keys coastal waters through Thursday night.
613 PM CDT Wed Jul 24 2024 (Through Tonight) Mid/upper-level trough axis that has been directly overhead the last few days has shifted southeast of the forecast area today as a potent 598dam ridge over the Desert Southwest/Great Basin region continues to build eastward over the Plains. Mid-level WV/IR satellite imagery shows decent subsidence occurring from the ridge and has kept mostly dry conditions thus far, with the exception of perhaps a couple of showers in southeast OK and west- central AR. Mid/upper-level ridging will further build-in over the region, shoving the upper- level trough axis farther south and east of the area. Temperatures will be near to slightly below seasonal average, with daytime highs reaching the low-mid 90s for most locations.
Strong high pressure is bringing another day of hot temperatures to the area with widespread moderate to major heat risk. Oroville only dropped to 81 this morning, while the lowest morning temperature at Paradise was 83. Some cooling will be evident tonight as a onshore flow an upper level low passes through the Pacific Northwest. There are locally elevated fire weather concerns this afternoon and early evening, and again Thursday afternoon/evening with some gusty southerly winds developing as the previously mentioned upper level low passes through the Pacific Northwest. Thursday the upper trough will start to combine with a very dry upper level low currently well off the coast of California to bring cooler temperatures.
555 PM EDT Wed Jul 24 2024 - Warmer, drier weather is anticipated through the weekend with highs in the mid to upper 80s.
The ridge of high pressure that has brought hot, dry conditions to the Northern Rockies is moving east today as a closed low pressure circulation moves onshore in British Columbia. As we reach midday Thursday, the low pressure circulation will traverse along the Canadian border, pushing a cold front through the Northern Rockies. Humidity levels will improve slightly due to cooler temperatures on Thursday, but strong winds will continue to raise fire weather concerns.
644 PM EDT Wed Jul 24 2024 A humid airmass along with an approaching trough will continue to produce areas of showers and thunderstorms through this evening.
552 PM MDT Wed Jul 24 2024 - Shower and thunderstorm coverage increases Thursday and cooler, wetter conditions follow.
831 PM EDT Wed Jul 24 2024 A slow moving cold front will bring scattered showers and thunderstorms through early this evening, then again on Thursday afternoon and evening.
Mid/upper-level ridging will further build-in over the region, shoving the upper- level trough axis farther south and east of the area. Temperatures will be near to slightly below seasonal average, with daytime highs reaching the low-mid 90s for most locations.
909 PM EDT Wed Jul 24 2024 Showers and storms are expected through through a Thursday ahead of a cold front. KEY MESSAGES: - A cold front brings additional shower and thunderstorm chances, mainly to the southern half of the area. - Cooler and drier weather moves into the area in the wake of the cold front. With these features being out of phase, not expecting the convective coverage one might typically expect along a summer cold front. The front pushes through the area by late Thursday evening, with cooler and drier air settling in behind it.
926 PM CDT Wed Jul 24 2024 - High pressure will dominate the latter half of the week with at or just below average temperatures.
351 PM MDT Wed Jul 24 2024 - Shower and thunderstorm coverage increases Thursday and cooler, wetter conditions follow.
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: High pressure and the upper level ridge will peak over the area today. High temperatures on Thursday will again be above 100 degrees in most areas with the highest readings in the east near the border with North Dakota. The ridge axis moves eastward tonight, turning the flow aloft here from the SW. By Thursday afternoon, an upper level low will start moving inland from the Pacific. The low will track east just north of the Canadian border and will move the ridge to the east.
/19/ (This evening through Thursday Night) Upper-level trough across northeast Texas into Arkansas to maintain an unstable environment across the region through the short-term period ending Thursday night. Overnight lows tonight are forecast to fall into the upper 60s to lower 70s with highs on Thursday in the low to mid 80s.
A TEMPO was carried for LEE, 21-24z, where the highest rain chances are expected. Generally favorable boating conditions persist, as the Atlantic ridge axis remains north of the local area into this weekend, then weakens.
- Few storms may linger into Thursday morning, but otherwise warmer and drier Thursday into Friday.
(Today through Friday) The southwestern extension of the subtropical ridge will remain in place over SFL today while an upper level low slowly encroaches towards the area from the east. Sandwiched between the ridge and the low we will reside in a region of subsidence and dry mid-lvl NELY flow, with PWATs progged to run in the 1. Mid-lvl heights decrease somewhat heading into Friday as the low approaches and the ridge wanes somewhat, but the seasonably dry airmass will remain in place. Given less synoptic subsidence would expect higher rain chances than Thursday, with the highest chances focused over Interior and SW Florida (given that the Gulf breeze should see greater inland progression relative to Thursday).
As for Friday, dry conditions do look probable for most of the Panhandles thanks to the presence of the upper-level high pressure system. However, a weak upper-level trough moving across just to our north does open up the low chance (10 to 20%) of a shower or isolated thunderstorm moving off the Southern Rockies into the Western Panhandles that afternoon.
Highs will be kept in the lower 80s for most, and upper 70s atop the higher Cumberland Plateau areas.
Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Mid-level trough axis draped from Quebec southwestward into the Great Lakes will continue to propel east rather quickly this morning. As a result, rising heights will be the rule locally through the day ahead as mid-upper level ridging amplifies upstream. Should easily be able to realize a 30+ degree diurnal temperature swing with lows falling into the low-mid 40s across much of the interior. PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: Ridging will build into the Great Lakes region through the forecast period, promoting decreased cloud cover and quiet weather. PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: - Warming temperatures and quiet weather: High pressure building overhead will promote clearing skies with plentiful sunshine, along with warming temperatures through the upcoming weekend.
- Moderate to minor flooding continues on parts of the Mississippi River with minor flooding on the lower Rock River. Tonight, quiet and dry conditions will be seen as high pressure settles over the western Great Lakes.
Precipitation tapers off this evening as high pressure slowly seeps farther south overnight.
Slightly cooler weather today with more cooling through the end of the week. Today's high temperatures are expected to be 2-5 degrees cooler than yesterday as the upper level ridge continues to move eastward. As the ridge moves away, it will be replaced by an upper level trough moving inland into the Western United States which will contribute to a more significant temperature cool down beginning Friday. The Heat Advisory will be allowed to expire at 11PM tonight with cooler temperatures and only minor heat risk anticipated Friday.
This is most likely across far south- central into southeast Oklahoma, near a more consolidated (yet still weak) upper trough/vorticity axis. Afternoon high temperatures are also forecast to remain near seasonable values (low-90s-east to upper-90s-west), as the primary ridge/thermal axis remains centered across the High Plains and Intermountain West (as previously expected).
1125 PM MDT Wed Jul 24 2024 - Shower and thunderstorm coverage increases Thursday and cooler, wetter conditions follow.
Guidance continues to show an upper-level ridge over the southwest CONUS. Meanwhile the upper level trough axis across the southeast US will continue to lift northward heading into the overnight period. Rain chances will start to diminish later this evening before increasing in coverage well into the overnight, with mid to high PoP chances (between 45-60%) across our forecast area, as deep tropical moisture continues to be pooled east of the trough. The combination of continuing cloud cover along with decent rain coverage will keep nighttime temperatures in the low 70s across the area. Later this weekend, a pattern change will begin to take place as global guidance shows a high pressure system building into the southeast CONUS before shifting over our area around this timeframe as the trough axis shifts off to the East Coast.
With the continued synoptic support from the trough to our west, these two features will give us high POPs daily, primarily during the afternoon as we've observed when low-level temperatures are at their highest and convective inhibition drops. The majority of rainfall both days will be off to our west where synoptic lift and moisture transport is more substantial, as we are also currently on the very western edge of the aforementioned high pressure to the east.
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: One more extremely hot day is expected today ahead of a cold front this evening. The highest temperatures today will be near the North Dakota border. The ridge axis moved east overnight, turning the flow aloft here from the SW. An upper level low will start moving inland from the Pacific today. The low will track east just north of the Canadian border and will move the ridge to the east.
1111 PM PDT Wed Jul 24 2024 Slightly cooler weather today with more cooling through the end of the week. Highs tomorrow will drop a few more degrees from todays values as the upper level ridge axis over our area continues to gradually weaken out ahead of an upper level low arriving with cooler temperatures on Friday. Increasing southwest flow in the lower troposphere allowed for vertical mixing to penetrate the top of the the marine layer and hold off marine stratus early this morning.
A downward trend in activity is then expected over the weekend, along with cooler temperatures. Low temperatures tonight are forecast to be a few degrees warmer compared to last night's as humidity will likely by higher. Storms should start to develop by noon along the high terrain and then spread a few hours later across much of northern Arizona. High pressure will remain centered over western Arizona on Thursday. Given the position of the high pressure, storm motion will generally be to the south and southwest.
349 AM EDT Thu Jul 25 2024 A cold front located over the Ohio River Valley will approach and then move through the forecast area by this evening. A cold front currently located over the Ohio River Valley will be located just northwest of the forecast area by sunrise this morning. The cold front is set to slowly approach the area throughout the day before moving through by tonight. Aloft, an upper level trough pivoting overhead will push the cold front through the area today. Overnight low temperatures will be in the 60s for most with those at higher elevations in the 50s and metro areas in the low 70s. In the wake of the aforementioned cold front, high pressure builds in from the Great Lakes Region. The cold front will continue pushing southward toward the Carolinas throughout the day on Friday.
(Today through Friday) Satellite imagery this morning shows a very similar picture compared to the past few mornings with a broad upper-level trough to our north and moist southwesterly flow over Middle TN. By Friday, the broad trough finally begins to move to the east as ridging begins to build across the area.
459 AM EDT Thu Jul 25 2024 A cold front will approach today and cross the area early this evening.
A cold front will settle south of the region Friday night bringing drier and cooler conditions for the weekend. 3 inch PW's as a cold front approaches from the Great Lakes. Showers and thunderstorms are likely again this afternoon and evening with the highest probabilities from Raleigh south and east. Even though the cold front will still be to our north through most of Friday, some drier air will begin to filter into the northern and western areas helping reduce POP and lower the chance of flash flooding north and west of Raleigh.
Temperatures will top out in the 80s but the warmer temperatures will be across the north where cloud cover and precipitation chances will be less. Temperatures will be cooler Friday with increased cloud cover and higher rain chances. Even with the higher rain chances, coverage will be spotty with most areas seeing less than a tenth of an inch.
(Today) Temperatures are forecast to be another degree or two warmer this afternoon with high temperatures near normal for this time of year.
1154 PM CDT Wed Jul 24 2024 (This evening through 12Z Friday) In the upper reaches of the atmosphere we are on the western periphery of the Bermuda high with another high centered over the western US and have a low pressure weakness between them that is serving as a pathway pulling tropical moisture along the Texas Gulf coast and into the lower Mississippi River valley.
335 AM EDT Thu Jul 25 2024 A cold front will bring some isolated to scattered showers to the region today. Behind the front, it will become noticeably drier and cooler, setting the stage for a pleasant weekend. Shower activity continues to wane across the region early this morning ahead of the approaching cold front that will push across the region today. Friday will be a beautiful day across the region as high pressure builds over the Great Lakes and northwesterly flow continues, allowing for plenty of sunshine.
Ridging remains in place over the Four Corners and will Moderate temperatures somewhat for our area.
This front stalls across northern North Carolina Friday, but sinks further south over the weekend as high pressure builds across the Mid- Atlantic. The frontal boundary lingering across the piedmont appears to start to shift to the southeast later this morning as 5h trough digs across the Ohio Valley, sending another front which will bring some drier air in by tonight into the mountains. Going to limit highs to the lower to mid 80s east, to 70s to near 80 west.
(Today through Friday) Models are beginning to agree a little more on the lower rain chances today as the models were hinting at yesterday. Areas across the north and west will continue to see high rain chances as they will be closer to the weak trough in place. As we move into Friday, the higher PWs will be in the southern and western portions of the area, therefore the best chances reside here.
A cold front will slowly edge into the region today. Still, because of the high precipitable water values (1.
(Today and tonight) Currently, west central Texas is on the west side of an upper level trough that extends from northeastern Arkansas into south central Texas. There are numerous showers and a few thunderstorms along the Texas Gulf coast on the eastern side of the trough. The trough is expected to move very little today, with additional showers and thunderstorms developing around it. With somewhat higher moisture content in these counties, additional cloud cover, and proximity to the upper trough will keep temperatures mainly in the 80s in that same area.
1049 PM CDT Wed Jul 24 2024 (This evening through Thursday) A 599 dam mid-level ridge will remain centered across the western U. with a weakness in the ridge across the Arklatex. Otherwise, with the weakness in the ridge and the attendant low- level thermal ridge remaining to the west, temperatures will remain near to slightly below-average in the low to mid 90s deg F.
127 AM EDT Thu Jul 25 2024 - Warmer, drier weather is anticipated through the weekend with highs in the mid to upper 80s. Looking at GOES visible satellite imagery and the 15Z WPC surface map, it is evident that the cold front has passed through most of, if not all of, the CWA. Currently, the cold front is draped from Peoria, IL to Marion, IN to Toledo, OH. As the attendant upper level trough pivots through today, a few showers will be possible this evening and overnight south of US 24. Tomorrow, another area of high pressure settles in across the Great Lakes region from Canada.
Additionally, with increasing gusty winds, an incoming cold front, increased thunderstorm potential, and RH values in the 8-20% range for many areas, a Red Flag Warning is in effect for this afternoon through tonight. After the cold front moves through Thursday night, highs on Friday will be noticeably lower in the upper 80s to low 90s.
Some gusts could be stronger at ridgetops, especially across southwest Montana. Temperatures will feel noticeably cooler today and into the weekend.
1055 PM CDT Wed Jul 24 2024 (Rest of tonight) There will be essentially no change in the synoptic environment across the TN Valley overnight, as WSW flow aloft of 10-20 knots will continue within the gradient between a mid-level subtropical ridge retrograding southwestward into the central Gulf of Mexico and a weak trough of low pressure centered across the Arklatex.
An upper-level trough across the mid-Mississippi Valley extending southwest into southeast Texas will maintain increased instability across the region allowing for widespread rain showers with the possibility of embedded thunder throughout the day. The plume of deep tropical moisture remains stretched southwest to northeast from the western Gulf across the Southeast states to the east of an upper-level trough axis. While the northern stream portion of the trough pulls east of the Great Lakes today, a cut off portion of energy will spin over the Lower Mississippi River Valley.
404 AM CDT Thu Jul 25 2024 - Near normal temperatures to end the workweek with highs in the lower to mid 90s, lows generally in the mid 60s.
720 AM EDT Thu Jul 25 2024 A cold front will bring some isolated to scattered showers to the region today. Behind the front, it will become noticeably drier and cooler, setting the stage for a pleasant weekend. Minimal changes needed to the forecast as the cold front continues to push through the region this morning. Shower activity continues to wane across the region early this morning ahead of the approaching cold front that will push across the region today. Friday will be a beautiful day across the region as high pressure builds over the Great Lakes and northwesterly flow continues, allowing for plenty of sunshine.
638 AM CDT Thu Jul 25 2024 (Today through Friday) Models are beginning to agree a little more on the lower rain chances today as the models were hinting at yesterday. Areas across the north and west will continue to see high rain chances as they will be closer to the weak trough in place. As we move into Friday, the higher PWs will be in the southern and western portions of the area, therefore the best chances reside here.
- High pressure will dominate the latter half of the week with at or just below average temperatures.
The plume of deep tropical moisture remains stretched southwest to northeast from the western Gulf across the Southeast states to the east of an upper-level trough axis. While the northern stream portion of the trough pulls east of the Great Lakes today, a cut off portion of energy will spin over the Lower Mississippi River Valley.
627 AM CDT Thu Jul 25 2024 (Today and tonight) Currently, west central Texas is on the west side of an upper level trough that extends from northeastern Arkansas into south central Texas. There are numerous showers and a few thunderstorms along the Texas Gulf coast on the eastern side of the trough. The trough is expected to move very little today, with additional showers and thunderstorms developing around it. With somewhat higher moisture content in these counties, additional cloud cover, and proximity to the upper trough will keep temperatures mainly in the 80s in that same area.
A downward trend in activity is then expected over the weekend, along with cooler temperatures. High pressure remains situated over Arizona today, keeping chances for showers and thunderstorms in the forecast again this afternoon. Overall through, 0-6 km shear looks to be virtually nothing with the high directly overhead, so the threat for any organized severe storms is minimal.
High pressure will ridge across the area through the weekend, keeping light SE flow across the waters with afternoon seabreezes turning winds onshore and late afternoon and evening thunderstorms possible.
614 AM CDT Thu Jul 25 2024 (Today) Temperatures are forecast to be another degree or two warmer this afternoon with high temperatures near normal for this time of year.
The TEMPO was carried for LEE, 21-24z, where the highest rain chances are expected. Generally favorable boating conditions as the ridge axis of the Atlantic high slides south across the local waters later today.
1005 AM EDT Thu Jul 25 2024 A cold front will bring some isolated to scattered showers to the region today. Behind the front, it will become noticeably drier and cooler, setting the stage for a pleasant weekend. Minimal changes needed to the forecast as the cold front continues to push through the region this morning. Shower activity continues to wane across the region early this morning ahead of the approaching cold front that will push across the region today. Friday will be a beautiful day across the region as high pressure builds over the Great Lakes and northwesterly flow continues, allowing for plenty of sunshine.
543 AM CDT Thu Jul 25 2024 - Near normal temperatures to end the workweek with highs in the lower to mid 90s, lows generally in the mid 60s.
The high pressure that has been situated over SE Arizona is currently located over southern Nevada with NE flow aloft over southern AZ. Due to the location of the upper-level high pressure system, today will be a rim-to-valley pattern with thunderstorms starting in northern Greenlee and Graham counties moving SW, arriving in Tucson in the late afternoon to early evening continuing across western Pima county in the early evening hours.
With the lower-levels remaining fairly saturated, dewpoints are forecast to remain in the 70s across the entire region.