Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
- Light snow can't be ruled out for the highest elevations over the weekend though no impacts are expected to roadways. Closed low pressure is currently spinning over the Baja and AZ/CA state line. The models have continued to slow the arrival of the low pressure, which is now projected to pass overhead on Monday. By Sunday night, the closed low will have finally started slowly moving to the northeast and as this occurs, it will also become an open wave. The best chances for any convection will be over the higher terrain as peak heating and the wave provide plenty of lift.
The key players to our very benign forecast will involve upper ridging across across the Ohio Valley into the Ouachitas in Arkansas and into East Texas and Louisiana with bookend upper troughs, one across the Texas Hill Country and another across the Southeast U.
(Tonight through Monday night) The mid and upper level flow will start to weaken today as the broad scale trough begins to move east of the area allowing for a very modest UL Ridge to set up over the Sabine River.
07Z water vapor imagery showed the mean westerlies remaining across southern Canada with a closed low over southern CA. This had left a broad upper ridge across the southern and central plains. Surface obs showed weak high pressure nosing into the middle MO river valley with a stationary boundary setup across central KS. However this feature is progged to become less defined through the afternoon with generally weak flow in the lower troposphere. A general lack of dynamics within the ridge also suggests general subsidence under the ridge.
(Today) Tranquil conditions across the Tennessee Valley early this morning with high pressure at the surface in control of our sensible weather. Daytime highs will again warm into the low to mid 80s -- with a few upper 80s readings possible in portions of northwest and north central Alabama.
* Mild/warm start to the week before turning much cooler with stretch of dry weather continuing into October.
(Rest of tonight and Sunday) Water vapor imagery depicts a mid- and upper-level trough axis that has pushed east of Alabama and is now bringing rain to much of the Eastern Seaboard. The TN Valley will be squeezed between this high and the developing tropical system in the western Atlantic.
* A low pressure system will bring breezy winds and drier air to the region as it approaches the region on Monday.
The main upper level winds are located in Canada with a large ridge over the central and northern plains. At the surface a stationary boundary is located along the highway 50 corridor with an anticyclone centered in northeast Nebraska. The upper low in the southwest evolves into a longwave trough with a northeast trajectory into the 4 corners region by afternoon. This should move the core of the warmer air northward and with thicker mid level clouds highs will be a few degrees cooler in the lower 80s. Upper level winds stay generally zonal with an upper high over the Great Lakes and the polar jet staying well north into Canada keeping the ridge over the center CONUS. With no upcoming troughs or cold fronts we should see high temperatures stay generally in the 80s through the next 7 days.
1045 PM MDT Sat Sep 27 2025 - An upper-level ridge keeps the region drier today through the weekend with temperatures warming back into the 70s and 80s. The upper level ridge will start to breakdown and start to push east tonight. This will allow some moisture to advect into the region as the upper level low near the four corners region rejoins the flow and shifts northeast. However, RH values are expected to be in the low 30's as the gusty winds occur so no fire weather products will be issued. The synoptic weather pattern for most of the week will be characterized by a broad ridge encompassing most of the central and eastern CONUS, leaving southwest flow aloft over our area.
* A low pressure system approaching the West Coast Monday will bring breezier winds and drier air.
Clear skies & calm winds have lead to prime radiational cooling conditions overnight, with temperatures falling into the low 40s across central Minnesota & western Wisconsin. Very warm conditions are expected this week as ridging amplifies over the Upper Midwest & Great Lakes region. Precipitation chances will continue to be negligible with the strong ridging overhead, so we'll likely have to wait until at least this weekend when the jet amplifies over the US-Canada border & flattens out the ridge.
301 AM CDT Sun Sep 28 2025 - Above normal temperatures and dry conditions are expected this week with cooler temperatures near Lake Michigan via lake breezes. Issued 300 AM CDT Sun Sep 28 2025 Today through Monday: Upper ridging will build east from the Mid MO River Valley across the nrn Ohio River Valley today and tnt. This will yield light ely winds and cooler temps than yesterday, but still above normal in the 70s. The upper ridge will then re-orient more south to north across IL and WI for Mon-Mon nt while the sfc wind fields do the same.
High pressure at the sfc and aloft rules over the region through at least early week. TD 9 which may become TS Imelda looks to skirt up the East Coast to the Carolinas and then gets pulled out to sea slightly by a passing hurricane Humberto to the east and high pressure to the north over New England. With this outcome, ensembles increasingly favor dry conditions for our region mid week onward with continued high pressure dominance.
Enhanced and persistent mid and upper level ridging associated with a blocking type pattern across the eastern CONUS will continue to support unseasonably mild and dry continues across our region for the foreseeable future. In the near term, a weak cold front will drop southward in across the area tonight then wash out into Sunday. Otherwise, an expansive area of high pressure will become established over northeastern North America this week.
--------------------------------------------------------------- Building high pressure resulting in limited cloud coverage, and combined with light winds will result in patchy dense fog this morning. KEY MESSAGES: - Dry and warm conditions continue - Increased cloud coverage Monday ---------------------------------------------------------------- Dry conditions continue Monday as high pressure remains in control. Highs are thus likely to be a few degrees cooler than Sunday, especially south and east of Pittsburgh where cloud cover resides for the majority of the day.
Lingering moisture from the past few day's thunderstorms and the incoming trough may lead to further thunderstorms this afternoon, with the chances for development in the 15 to 35 range along the Sierra Nevada crest and into the northeastern portion of Kern County. These conditions on Monday are due to the incoming trough from the Pacific coming further inland and pushing the weakening cut-off low out of the region. Along with this trough as well as the thunderstorms is an overall cooldown for the region, beginning today, with temperatures becoming below normal for this time of year. These conditions are likely to hold due to a series of troughs coming near or above our area, leading to below average temperatures, though likely not much precipitation, as the core of these troughs remain to our north.
(Today and tonight) The upper ridge will begin to shift eastward. Weak surface ridging will continue with mainly light east to southeast winds less than 10 mph.
Highs are expected to reach the 80s across most of the state, with the warmest temperatures in the southwest as an east CONUS upper high advects warmer air over the Western Plains.
The ridge will continue to push east and strengthen over Illinois as an upper low over the near the southern tip of Nevada slides east-northeast towards the Four Corners today. At the surface, weak lee troughing may bring some low-end breezy winds across western Oklahoma. Temperatures may be a few degrees cooler than yesterday, but still expecting unseasonably warm highs this afternoon in the upper 80s to lower 90s.
243 AM EDT Sun Sep 28 2025 Low pressure tracks out to sea today.
134 AM EDT Sun Sep 28 2025 High pressure is expected through the entire week.
- Benign and warmer than normal weather is expected through much of this coming week. (Tonight through Monday night) An upper-level trough remains in place over the Southwestern US with scattered showers and thunderstorms ongoing across that region.
1215 AM CDT Sun Sep 28 2025 (Rest of tonight and Sunday) Water vapor imagery depicts a mid- and upper-level trough axis that has pushed east of Alabama and is now bringing rain to much of the Eastern Seaboard. The TN Valley will be squeezed between this high and the developing tropical system in the western Atlantic.
Persistent ridging will keep this period of calm over our region through the early workweek.
Models remain in agreement as high pressure settles over the central Midwest and a large negatively tilted trough sits across Hudson Bay, extending into Newfoundland. High pressure will build through the first half of the week as warm air advection moves into the region and the ridge builds well into central Canada. The High pressure will persist through the middle of the week as the high pressure positively tilts eastward. This should be due to an upper level low moving southward along the Western Coast. The ridge will also be influenced by tropical depression nine and Hurricane Humberto. This would seem likely due to the movement of the ridge and the advancement of the upper level low along the west coast that might track into the intermountain west late int the week.
An upper level low pressure remained over the Hudson bay with upper level ridging over the central U. Temperatures ranged from the upper 30s to the low 40s where the boundary layer had decoupled over interior sections and the south- central U. It will remain dry and warm today and Monday as the upper level ridge continues to build over the central U. The NBM is struggling with the surface moisture both days; underforecasting the impact of the mixing on the low levels. The upper level ridge axis shifts east, centered over the Great Lakes early to midweek.
A cold front with cooler and drier air behind it has made it to about the Missouri/Iowa border, but it won't make it any further.
304 AM CDT Sun Sep 28 2025 - Quiet weather continues through the period as high pressure is expected to remain in place.
358 AM EDT Sun Sep 28 2025 High pressure will build southward from eastern Canada through much of the week. A strong cold front will track across the area by the middle of this week bringing cooler and drier weather. Residual light showers and/or drizzle east of I-95 will end shortly as weak area of low pressure off of the DelMarVa coast moves away. Otherwise, widespread low clouds and areas of dense across west of the Blue Ridge will hold on through mid morning before mixing out after 10 AM. Dry rest of the day as high pressure builds to the north.
The low levels of the atmosphere are quite dry so only some mid and high level clouds will mark its passing.
The upper-level trough that brought last week's rain chances and this weeks drier continues to fill over the Southeast US. Over the western Gulf at the base at the trough and in the mid-levels, a vort max will slowly loose steam as it meanders over the waters today, ever so slightly retrogading to the west.
100 AM EDT Sun Sep 28 2025 High pressure will lead to dry and mild conditions through the middle of the week. Cooler temperatures closer to climatological norms will be found for the latter half of the week.
Early this morning, water vapor satellite imagery continues to show the cutoff mid/upper low meandering across the Desert Southwest with an elongated deep layer trough draped across the Appalachians and into the eastern Gulf. In between these features, fairly stout mid/upper ridging continues to build over the southern and central plains. Additionally, the aforementioned mid/upper ridge will support slightly above normal temperatures today, with a many locations likely experiencing highs in the mid to upper 80s. A weak cold front and increasing cloud cover will help to bring temperatures back down closer to average with highs in the low to mid 80s and lows in the upper 50s to low 60s.
259 AM CDT Sun Sep 28 2025 - Dry weather and warmer than normal temperatures are expected through the start of the work week. - Disturbed weather over the Southeastern US this week could bring a chance for cooler weather and possible rain later this week. Today and Tonight: Warmer than normal and dry through the period. Ridging surface and aloft will strengthen over the region from the northwest through tonight.
- Light snow can't be ruled out for the highest elevations through Monday though little to no impacts are expected on mountain roadways. Water vapor imagery shows the upper low still spinning over SoCal this morning. Models suggest this low will begin to be nudged to the northeast today as Low pressure digs farther into the EPac. The low makes into it to northern AZ by this evening then opens to a wave as it crosses the 4 Corners tonight and finally crosses the CWA on Monday as it continues to shear apart. The best chances for any convection will be over the higher terrain as peak heating and the wave provide plenty of lift.
- High pressure continues with only a small chance of precipitation returning this weekend. Get ready for a stretch of beautiful early-fall weather across the Northland as a large area of high pressure settles in for the entire week. The main exception to this quiet weather will be a push of cooler air off Lake Superior on Monday afternoon and evening, which will bring a quick cooldown and some gusty northeast winds, especially for areas near the Twin Ports.
At the surface, a broad area of high pressure is noted over the region. In the upper levels, a ridge of high pressure currently over the central CONUS will amplify as it nudges eastward through tomorrow. At the surface, strengthening high pressure centered to our north over the Great Lakes will slide to the Northeast.
The ridge over TX is stubborn though so we expect mainly some cirrostratus while mid and lower levels of the atmosphere remain very dry and influenced by a continental NE wind.
-Mostly clear and sunny skies are expected through the rest of the weekend -Dry conditions are expected over the next several days due to high pressure over the region -Temperatures are expected to be average to slightly above average over the next several days A mostly settled weather pattern is expected across the region over the next several days. As mentioned above, drier conditions are expected under high pressure with little to no rainfall likely through the upcoming week.
252 PM CDT Mon Aug 25 2025 The main weather story this week is the anomalously amplified eastern CONUS trough and the long duration of cooler and eventually unsettled weather it will bring.
Weak surface ridging is in control of our sensible weather as seen by our light and somewhat variable winds. While this would usually point to a possible cloudline day, CIMSS MIMIC TPW notes most of the moist air is found to our north over mainland Florida associated with a slow moving cold front. Following this morning's wave of nocturnal convection, showers are clearly struggling to build under dry air in the lower to mid levels of our profile. The forecast for the next few days will be dominated by weak surface ridging.
Water vapor satellite and upper level analysis has high pressure over the Four Corners region with a negatively tilted trof extending into the Pacific Northwest, creating fairly dry northwest flow conditions over the forecast area. At the surface, high pressure remains centered over the eastern Dakotas, with a weak stationary front extending through central Wyoming. A few showers/isolated storm may develop this afternoon over the southern Black Hills or along the South Dakota portion of the Pine Ridge.
A cold front brings slightly cooler temperatures Tuesday.
The exception to this is a shallow cold front that will bring some clouds and rain to our northern counties and parishes. The cooler airmass and the rain could allow temperatures to fall into the mid 60s in these areas overnight tonight.
140 PM EDT Mon Aug 25 2025 - A cooler and much drier air mass on the way into the area tonight will last through the upcoming week. Recent surface analysis shows the forecast area on the backside of a departing cold front. Highs today will climb into the mid-70s, while overnight lows will fall into the low to mid-50s, with some of the coldest valleys potentially seeing temperatures in the upper 40s. Temperatures will be 10 to 15 degrees cooler, giving the area a pleasant preview of autumn.
Some of the high resolution guidance also indicates some activity may clip Volusia this evening before moving off into the Atlc waters.
209 PM EDT Mon Aug 25 2025 - Cooler weather persists through the week.
The first signs of weak upper level offshore troughing will set in today. The most interesting portion of the forecast both today and Tuesday will be the low probability of elevated thunderstorms.
Blended model guidance continues to be dragged warmer by bias corrections which are largely based on the recent heat wave. As a result, the distribution of temperature forecasts is distinctly bimodal, with a cluster of bias corrected guidance about 3-4 degrees warmer than a cluster of raw or blended raw guidance for the next couple of days.
1141 AM CDT Mon Aug 25 2025 (Rest of Today and Tonight) Post-frontal conditions will allow the Tennessee Valley to be dry and relatively cooler today as strong CAA limits highs to the upper 70s to mid 80s (which is around 5-10 degrees below normal for this time of year).
Lows will be in the low to mid 50s. Monday-Tuesday: A blocked synoptic pattern, broadly characterized by ridging aloft over the western CONUS and troughing aloft over the eastern CONUS, will persist through Tuesday.
152 PM EDT Mon Aug 25 2025 A noticeably cooler air mass will linger through midweek, with spotty lake enhanced rain showers at times, especially in Central New York.
218 PM EDT Mon Aug 25 2025 Cooler with scattered showers and a few thunderstorms possible today.
(Rest of Today and Tonight) Post-frontal conditions will allow the Tennessee Valley to be dry and relatively cooler today as strong CAA limits highs to the upper 70s to mid 80s (which is around 5-10 degrees below normal for this time of year).
This active pattern comes from an area of high pressure elongated over Arizona, New Mexico and much of Texas. Through the beginning of the week a trough will form off the Coast of California and eventually shift inland and push the previously mentioned ridge eastward. Depending on what models you look at, there is still a suggestion of isolated activity primarily across the higher terrain.
An anomalously strong longwave trough is currently in place across the eastern half of the CONUS. At the surface, a rather strong cold front (for late August standards) has pushed through much of the local area today and is currently located across our coastal counties this afternoon.
Breaks in the cloud deck across north central Nebraska has allowed for temperatures to climb into the lower 70s. Further south across the Sandhills and southwest Nebraska, persistent low cloudiness is holding temperatures in the lower to middle 60s. This activity will persist through sunrise across north central Nebraska, before waning as the low level jet veers. This will boost temperatures back into the lower to middle 70s area wide, though still around 5- 10 degrees below normal for late August.
This strong high pressure system was dominating the weather across the region. Aloft, water vapor imagery shows a deep upper low over Hudson Bay and sharp ridging over the western CONUS. Some afternoon CU will be possible again as convective temperatures in the lower 70s are reached. Highs in the lower 70s appear on target. Highs will struggle into the low to mid 70s for the most part, with a couple spots perhaps even failing to reach 70 - well below normal for late August.
158 PM EDT Mon Aug 25 2025 A noticeably cooler air mass will linger through midweek, with spotty lake enhanced rain showers at times, especially in Central New York.
145 PM EDT Mon Aug 25 2025 A cold front will move offshore tonight heralding cooler, drier weather under high pressure through much of the work week.
123 PM EDT Mon Aug 25 2025 High pressure arrives from the west with drier air into the end of the week. Will remain in a cyclonic flow so expect some periods of cold advection stratocumulus into Tuesday along with some high clouds from time to time, but overall a dry and cooler airmass for the area. Clouds at times and some mixing will limit it getting cooler with lows ranging from the upper 40s to around 50 in the mountains to to mid to upper 50s east. Early morning temperatures are likely to be in the lower 40s to the lower 50s with afternoon high temperatures in the mid-60s to mid-70s. Dew points will remain in the lower 40s to mid-50s and PWATs will be between 0.
145 PM EDT Mon Aug 25 2025 A cold front will push east across the region today. High pressure building into the area behind the front will bring noticeably cooler and less humid conditions for the rest of the week. A dry and warm frontal passage today. The cold front was entering the western part of NC early this morning and there was little if any shower activity with this front. Lows will still be able to fall into the mid 50s north to lower 60s SE Cooler with lingering mid and high clouds on Tuesday. The combination will deliver a day with highs only in the lower to mid 80s (5 to 8 degrees below normal). The low relative humidity will add to an early fall feeling for the region.
1221 PM CDT Mon Aug 25 2025 An upper level trough will dig southward through midweek. This will send a cold front into the area today, reaching the northern Gulf by Tuesday morning.
- A cold front will bring much cooler temperatures Tuesday. - After a mid-week warm up, another cold front will bring cooler temperatures along with precipitation chances into the weekend. Oriented NE to SW, its associated front is currently making its way into the far southern Texas Panhandle, with Childress showing easterly winds and temperatures around 10-15 degrees cooler than locations out ahead of it. What's left of the it will at least bring slightly cooler temperatures to the area Tuesday, with highs ranging north to south from the upper 70s to upper 80s.
on the eastern periphery of a deamplifying ridge over the 4-Corners and northern Rockies. and southwestern periphery of a broad upper level trough /cyclonic flow aloft/ over the eastern CONUS. on the western periphery of a modest surface to 850 mb high/ridge over central-eastern KS-NE (per 19Z SPC mesoanalysis data). Tuesday: A blocked synoptic pattern broadly characterized by ridging aloft over the western CONUS and troughing /cyclonic flow aloft/ over the eastern CONUS will persist into Tuesday. expect conditions similar to, albeit warmer, than today.
1157 AM EDT Mon Aug 25 2025 High pressure builds into the area today behind a cold front. High pressure continues to work its way into the area as a cold front is situated to the east. Highs today will be in the 70s across the lowlands with the mountains staying down in the 60s to the low 70s. The normal highs for this time of year across the lowlands are low to mid 80s. Similar trend continues for Tuesday as high pressure really begins to encroach the area. Temperatures will be about 3 to 6 degrees cooler than Monday under mostly skies and a slight breeze.
Temperatures are forecast remain just below 100F today with even cooler temperatures on Tuesday. Storms will develop over the higher terrain around noon.
Between the lower temperatures and dew points, it was a lovely drive into the office.
Cloud cover will also keep low temperatures in the lower 60s through most of the Tennessee Valley- with only a few spots dropping into the upper 50s.
With slightly offshore flow and still some elevated heights from ridging spread eastward from Texas under the broader scale trough, temperatures will remain on the warm side.