Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
225 PM EST Fri Nov 22 2024 Upper low continues to spin along the Atlantic Seaboard with deep troughing down into the S Gulf of Mexico wrapping very dry air aloft over the region as seen in water vapor imagery. The cold front pushing through the S FL Peninsula is associated with the early winter storm system in New England. Strong high pressure over the Deep South will continue to keep the very dry and cold Canadian airmass in the area through the weekend.
538 PM CST Fri Nov 22 2024 (Tonight through Saturday night) Upper air analysis this morning showed a ridge extending from the Gulf of California to the northern plains and northwesterly flow over Texas. The upper ridge will flatten over the short term period with the flow becoming close to zonal. High pressure over the southern plains will push down over Texas and our low level flow will become southerly to southeasterly tonight and this will continue Saturday and Saturday night. Temperatures will continue to trend warmer.
Plan on cooler temperatures and gustier southwest winds each day.
451 PM CST Fri Nov 22 2024 - Some potential for fog development across portions of north central Iowa, southwestern Minnesota and areas along the Buffalo Ridge into South Dakota into Saturday morning. Confidence remains high (>80% chance) for high temperatures to largely remain at or below freezing.
(This evening through Saturday Night) The slow uptick in nighttime lows will continue tonight as temperatures dip into the upper 30s across the Piney Woods, the low to mid 40s north of I-10, and into the mid to upper 40s S of I-10. High pressure will continue an eastward progression, leading to a more easterly to southeasterly flow for Saturday. Highs for Saturday will be in the low to mid 70s east of I-45 and in the mid to upper 70s west of I-45. Lows for Saturday night will be "warmer" than what has been observed the last few nights. Temperatures will be in the 50s for much of the area, with the exception of the coast and southern counties which will be in the low to mid 60s.
Low temperatures will fall into the the upper 30s across the Nature Coast with 40s expected elsewhere, except right along the coast where temperatures will dip into the lower 50s.
410 PM PST Fri Nov 22 2024 A cold front has passed through the forecast area earlier this morning with an upper level low still situated within 130W.
Cooler temperatures and chances for rain return toward the second half of the week due to an approaching system from the west. With lakes remaining warm, some of the winds in the low-level jet could mix down overnight, but have decided against another Lake Wind Advisory for now as guidance keeps wind gusts lower than threshold values.
513 PM CST Fri Nov 22 2024 - Overcast skies will stick around through at least the first half of Saturday before we start to erode the low stratus later in the day.
While temperatures will be chilly again, the cloud cover should keep temperatures above freezing for most of Middle TN. Tonight's update puts near 30 degree temperatures tonight in the southwest while keeping the rest of the area above freezing, but the expanding cloud cover will have to be watched closely.
Although the high was nearing the area, overall thermal advection appeared more neutral as opposed to warm/cold. Thus overnight temperatures should cool into the low/mid 30s. That said, those colder and more sheltered locations could chill to freezing for a short time. The clouds moving in would provide a moderation effect on cold temperatures, which would be more in-line with frosting as opposed to freezing.
Freezing temps will be possible again across portions of Southeast Oklahoma and Southwest & South-Central Arkansas. High pressure will start to slide east of the region on Saturday, but mostly clear skies will remain. Highs will range from the upper 60s to lower 70s, with the warmer temps across our East Texas and Western Louisiana zones. The southerly winds will also yield warmer overnight lows on Saturday night, with temps expected to fall into the 40s areawide.
- Next trough still expected for this weekend, ushering in a return to colder, yet normal autumn temperatures.
818 PM EST Fri Nov 22 2024 The threat for showers will end tonight as low pressure moves farther east.
- Warmer high temperatures will persist through Saturday. Today/Tonight Currently, a broad ridge remains in place with winds light and variable. As a large trough of low pressure along the West Coast starts to deepen, the flow aloft will start to increase and start shifting to a more southwest direction across the Four Corners. This will likely help keep those locations along the eastern slopes of the southern mts a bit warmer tonight into Saturday morning. Tomorrow Ridge continues to move out with southwesterly winds aloft increasing.
Upper low continues to spin along the Atlantic Seaboard with deep troughing down into the S Gulf of Mexico wrapping very dry air aloft over the region as seen in water vapor imagery. The cold front pushing through the S FL Peninsula is associated with the early winter storm system in New England. Strong high pressure over the Deep South will continue to keep the very dry and cold Canadian airmass in the area through the weekend.
Dry and pleasant weather conditions continue tonight with overnight lows in the low-mid 40s over the Lake region and interior, and into the low 50s near the coasts. (Rest of today through Saturday) A secondary cold front moving through South Florida early this afternoon will continue to move Southward and into the Florida Keys tonight. Lows along the east coast will get down to around 50 except for Miami-Dade and Coastal Broward Counties where the lows should fall down into the lower to mid 50s. The west coast metro areas will see the lows get down to around 50.
456 PM CST Fri Nov 22 2024 (Tonight) Slightly warmer temperatures are on tap for tonight as the high pressure center currently over the area shifts to the east.
609 PM EST Fri Nov 22 2024 The threat for showers will end tonight as low pressure moves farther east.
Dyersburg is already in the 30s with several locations in the low 40s. Overnight lows should be in the low to middle 30s.
318 PM MST Fri Nov 22 2024 High pressure over the region will promote well above normal temperatures with lower desert highs in the upper 70s to around 80 degrees through Saturday.
Highs today will generally be in the 60s with overnight lows ranging from the mid 30s across cooler inland locations to the mid to upper 40s along the immediate coast. Some frost cannot be ruled out again across the cooler sheltered locations early Sunday morning.
1152 PM CST Fri Nov 22 2024 - Fairly warm afternoon temperatures with highs in the lower to mid 60s remain likely through Sunday afternoon.
Cooler temperatures and chances for rain return toward the second half of the week due to an approaching system from the west. Early this morning: Another clear, dry, and cold morning on tap across the area with morning lows in the low to middle 30s expected. Temperatures may be only slightly warmer this afternoon than yesterday, with highs closer to 60 degrees over much of the area. As to how low they drop, the blend seems to have trended slightly warmer. Actually went much closer to the 25th percentile for lows, but even that keeps lows above the freezing mark for the majority of the forecast area.
1057 PM CST Fri Nov 22 2024 (Tonight through Saturday night) Upper air analysis this morning showed a ridge extending from the Gulf of California to the northern plains and northwesterly flow over Texas. The upper ridge will flatten over the short term period with the flow becoming close to zonal. High pressure over the southern plains will push down over Texas and our low level flow will become southerly to southeasterly tonight and this will continue Saturday and Saturday night. Temperatures will continue to trend warmer. Lows tonight will be 5-8 degrees warmer than this morning and lows Sunday morning will be another 10 degrees higher. High temperatures Saturday will only be a few degrees warmer than today.
Discussion: High pressure from the surface through the midlevels will be building over the area today.
- Next trough still expected for this weekend, ushering in a return to colder, yet normal autumn temperatures. This is wrapping around the generally idle trough just off the Washington state coast. This will have enough of a moisture tap from the Pacific to bring some snowfall, mainly to the higher elevations. As this first system sweeps east, the generally pattern remains from the southwest off the Pacific, while more pieces of the Pacific trough detach and sweep east.
Lows will still range from the lower to mid 30s overnight under mostly clear skies.
- Weather pattern change Sunday afternoon toward cooler temperatures.
1127 PM EST Fri Nov 22 2024 - Dry weather returns for the weekend as weak high pressure builds in.
1042 PM CST Fri Nov 22 2024 - Overcast skies will stick around through at least the first half of Saturday before we start to erode the low stratus later in the day.
(Today through Sunday) Warmer temperatures will make a return yet again, something most of us don't want to hear. Highs should climb back into the upper 70s and lower 80s outside of the Hill Country, where highs should be in the lower 70s. That, and the dry air in place that was left behind our last cold frontal passage.
1138 PM CST Fri Nov 22 2024 (This evening through Sunday) Under mostly clear skies and high pressure conditions, afternoon temperatures are peaking in the 50s to lower 60s this afternoon. Lows tonight will drop into the lower to mid 30s across the state, creating favorable conditions for frost to develop during the early morning hours. The ridge will weaken and upper flow will become more zonal through this time. The center of the High will shift east of the state Saturday and low-level flow will shift to come out of the south, returning warmer air and moisture to the region.
1018 PM MST Fri Nov 22 2024 - Weak cold front tonight with fog potential on the plains north and east of the Black Hills - Elevated fire weather conditions Saturday across northeast WY - Cold front Sunday with gusty northwest winds and small chance(<40%) of light snow/flurries - Below average temperatures through Thanksgiving with slight chance(<20%) of snow Water vapor shows upper ridge over the Northern Plains with Upper low/trof over SASK/Manitoba, and strong upper low off the Pac NW coast. At the surface, low pressure near the WY/SD/NE border with high pressure building southeast through MT/western ND. Weak backdoor cold front will move south across the area tonight with boundary layer flow veering more easterly (upslope) overnight into Saturday morning.
330 AM EST Sat Nov 23 2024 - Dry weather this weekend as weak high pressure builds in though cloudy skies remain.
Broad ridging building in from the Plains will result in generally drier weather and slightly above normal temperatures this weekend. Broad ridging beginning to work in from the Plains on Saturday and resulting mid-level subsidence should yield drier conditions across the area through this weekend. High temperatures over the weekend will range from the mid 30s to the lower 40s under generally mostly cloudy skies.
1034 PM CST Fri Nov 22 2024 - Some potential for fog development across portions of north central Iowa, southwestern Minnesota and areas along the Buffalo Ridge into South Dakota into Saturday morning. Confidence remains high (>80% chance) for high temperatures to largely remain at or below freezing.
- High temperatures will mostly be in the 50s through Sunday before a significant cold front impacts the area.
1231 AM EST Sat Nov 23 2024 Dry and pleasant weather conditions continue tonight with overnight lows in the low-mid 40s over the Lake region and interior, and into the low 50s near the coasts. (Rest of today through Saturday) A secondary cold front moving through South Florida early this afternoon will continue to move Southward and into the Florida Keys tonight. Lows along the east coast will get down to around 50 except for Miami-Dade and Coastal Broward Counties where the lows should fall down into the lower to mid 50s. The west coast metro areas will see the lows get down to around 50.
A thick layer of stratus clouds are hanging across roughly the eastern half of our CWA and they don't look to budge much between now and sunrise, thus keeping temperatures a touch warmer and limiting frost development. As we move into the afternoon hours, warmer temperatures are expected today with highs in the mid 50s and clearing skies.
305 AM EST Sat Nov 23 2024 Rain, and snow across the higher elevations, will gradually taper off today as low pressure exits the region.
135 AM EST Sat Nov 23 2024 The threat for showers will end tonight as low pressure moves farther east. Dry weather is expected Saturday and Sunday as high pressure takes over.
The lower cloud deck that nudged into the local area overnight (mainly over southern middle Tennessee and portions of north-central and northeastern Alabama) is expected to gradually lift and erode away through this morning. Some locations in the higher elevations of northeast Alabama could see cooler highs, in the lower 50s.
Although High pressure aloft has started to shift east of the region and the ridge axis is currently located across eastern New Mexico, there will be one more day of well above normal high temperatures today.
Currently, broad upper level ridge building east into the Great Plains, with another deep upper level trough developing over the west coast. Upper ridge moves slowly east across the Northern Plains today, as a strong upper level jet rounds the base of the aforementioned upper trough and lifts east-northeast into the Northern Rockies. Embedded mid level energy ejecting out of the upper trough will organize as it interacts with left exit region jet dynamics, morphing into a closed low over far south central Canada Sat night into Sunday over the southern provinces of Saskatchewan and Manitoba.
Cooler daytime temperatures and gustier southwest winds are in store each day.
545 AM EST Sat Nov 23 2024 Rain, and snow across the higher elevations, will gradually taper off today as low pressure exits the region.
Areas farther southwest will be on the edge of a warm front extending out from a low over CO/WY. The low moves off the Rockies and into the Plains tonight and Sunday.
Despite the cooler start today, highs will be a tad warmer topping out in the middle 60's for most locations. Sunday will be much warmer, with highs rising into the lower to middle 70's for many locations, warmest across southeastern Mississippi. Sunday night will be notably warmer, with lows falling into the lower to middle 50's.
- Cooler Sunday in the lower 40s to around 50 with a cold front moving through with gusty northerly winds 15 to 30 mph.
(Saturday through Sunday) High pressure remains dominate across the Four State Region this morning as another night of cooling continues. Highs on Sunday, will approach 80 deg F with many in the upper 70's and flirting with the low 80's.
414 AM EST Sat Nov 23 2024 The threat for showers and drizzle will end this morning as low pressure moves farther east. Dry weather is expected Saturday and Sunday as high pressure takes over.
Closer to home in AZ and SE CA, a ridge of high pressure remains the predominate feature, resulting in dry and tranquil weather. 500 mb hghts are expected to lower slightly today as ridging aloft begins to weaken, however positive hght anomalies still anticipated over our region. Highs will once again top out in the upper 70s to lower 80s across the lower deserts under mostly clear skies. A pattern change is anticipated on Sunday when ridging over the Desert Southwest will transition to zonal flow in response to the deepening trough over the West Coast. The widespread cloud cover on Sunday should preclude insolation enough to allow temperatures to be much closer to normal with highs in the low to mid 70s across the lower deserts.
335 AM CST Sat Nov 23 2024 - Warmer temperatures are predicted through Sunday with highs reaching the 60s.
637 AM EST Sat Nov 23 2024 The threat for showers and drizzle will end this morning as low pressure moves farther east. Dry weather is expected Saturday and Sunday as high pressure takes over.
- Cooler air arrives today, causing snow levels to drop down to the valleys just as the precipitation is decreasing. The upper level trough to the northwest of the region will start to split apart today. As it does, mildly cooler air will cause the snow levels to drop down to the valleys just as the precipitation is decreasing.
This will allow southerly winds to return to the region, along with warmer and more humid air. Would not be surprised to see patchy drizzle dvlp over northern and western AR later Sun night, as the low lvl jet ramps up ahead of an apchg CDFNT.
Conditions will settle towards the the Thanksgiving holiday as guidance hints at the return drier weather but cooler temperatures.
After the passage of a cold front through our area, generally weak northerly flow is settling in due to high pressure, bringing quiet weather and fairly clear skies.
By this evening, the high will be just east of the area and we should begin to see the first hint of return flow. But patchy fog is possible with these conditions and since it would be radiation driven, we will need to see how the lowest dew pt during the daylight hours stacks up to the lowest temp fcasted for tonight.
925 AM EST Sat Nov 23 2024 The threat for showers and drizzle will end this morning as low pressure moves farther east. Dry weather is expected Saturday and Sunday as high pressure takes over.
Cooler temperatures and chances for rain return toward the second half of the week due to an approaching system from the west. Temperatures may be only slightly warmer this afternoon than yesterday, with highs closer to 60 degrees over much of the area. As to how low they drop, the blend seems to have trended slightly warmer. Actually went much closer to the 25th percentile for lows, but even that keeps lows above the freezing mark for the majority of the forecast area.
717 AM EST Sat Nov 23 2024 Rain, and snow across the higher elevations, will gradually taper off today as low pressure exits the region.
551 AM CST Sat Nov 23 2024 (Today through Sunday Night) Latest surface analysis indicates a broad center of high pressure near the Arklatex region.
(Today through Sunday) Key Messages: - Well above normal temperatures this weekend Temperatures will continue to warmup as onshore flow continues to advect warmer air into the region.
Another cool start to the day with areawide 40s, perhaps a few U30s for normally cooler locations across the rural interior. Mid-level troughing pushes away from the Eastern Seaboard and deeper into the Atlc, with zonal flow returning to much of the Gulf Coast States and southeast U. Barrier islands will be a bit warmer. Weak high pressure a mainstay across the area, though a weak front is forecast to push into north FL mid-week and becomes diffuse.
529 AM CST Sat Nov 23 2024 (Saturday through Sunday) High pressure remains dominate across the Four State Region this morning as another night of cooling continues. Highs on Sunday, will approach 80 deg F with many in the upper 70's and flirting with the low 80's.
534 AM CST Sat Nov 23 2024 - Warmer temperatures are predicted through Sunday with highs reaching the 60s.
KBYX radar is free of precipitable echoes while nighttime microphysics notes patches of shallow cumulus tracing the west coast of mainland Florida over the Lower Keys and into the Straits of Florida. A strong low pressure system over the northeast US will continue to evacuate into the North Atlantic loosening the pressure gradient over the Keys as high pressure in the Great Plains advects towards the Eastern Seaboard. The only feature of note is some troughing developing in the Gulf of Mexico through Sunday.
504 AM CST Sat Nov 23 2024 (Today through Sunday) Key Messages: - Well above normal temperatures this weekend Temperatures will continue to warmup as onshore flow continues to advect warmer air into the region.
438 AM CST Sat Nov 23 2024 (Today) Surface ridging will advance east of the area this morning and southerly winds will make a return today.
High pressure over the Ozarks through the lower MS valley is forecast to move east into TN, AL, and the FL panhandle region today.
619 AM EST Sat Nov 23 2024 - Dry weather this weekend as weak high pressure builds in though cloudy skies remain.
Cold start, by FL locals standards, to the morning as high pressure settles into the Deep South keeping the cool and dry airmass in place today into Sunday. After the passage of a cold front through our area, generally weak northerly flow is settling in due to high pressure, bringing quiet weather and fairly clear skies.
High pressure over the Mississippi Valley is maintaining northerly winds which are pumping in a very dry, continental airmass across the Keys. Some stratocumulus pushed across the Lower Keys earlier, but the cloud field is now to the west and south of the island chain. Temperatures have only managed to reach the upper 60s to the lower 70s and dew points are hanging steady between 55-60 degrees. For the remainder of the day, winds will remain from the north to northeast as the high gradually moves to the east to southeast, but no real changes to the environment are expected. High temperatures will peak in the lower 70s and sunny skies will prevail. Breezes will gradually veer to the northeast to east by midweek as a broad high pressure system becomes established over the southeastern United States.
(Today through Sunday Night) Latest surface analysis indicates a broad center of high pressure near the Arklatex region.
They managed to keep half of Middle TN blanketed in relative warmth last night, only allowing areas south of I-40 and west of I-65 to drop below freezing. This will leave us with highs in the low to middle 50s before sunset. We'll be clear with calm winds tonight, which will lead to more people seeing below freezing temperatures, but the bulk of spots that see the mercury fall below 32 will be sheltered/valley locations across our south and east.
1118 AM CST Sat Nov 23 2024 (Today through Sunday) Warmer temperatures will make a return yet again, something most of us don't want to hear. Highs should climb back into the upper 70s and lower 80s outside of the Hill Country, where highs should be in the lower 70s. That, and the dry air in place that was left behind our last cold frontal passage.
An upper level ridge continues to move across the state this afternoon. Ahead of the ridge is an upper level short wave with some snow showers. Upper level troughing out over the Northern Rockies will push eastward today into the Northern Plains. The upper low will remain in Canada with majority of the lift staying north. Overnight lows are forecast to drop down into the teens north to the lower 20s southeast. Low stratus tonight could lead to patchy fog and freezing drizzle in the James River Valley through tomorrow morning. The upper low over Canada will move out of the region with a cold front following behind. This cold front will bring colder temperatures across the state.
(Through Sunday) Another chilly night is on tap, with high pressure overhead, clear skies, and light winds. Generally, it will be warmer compared to Saturday morning, by several degrees in some cases. For the remainder of the area, it's generally expected to be warmer compared to Saturday morning, so conditions will not be as conducive to frost.
This will allow southerly winds to return to the region, along with warmer and more humid air. Would not be surprised to see patchy drizzle develop over northern and western AR later Sun night, as the low lvl jet ramps up ahead of an apchg CDFNT.
Going forecast leaned toward the warmer side of the guidance and the 50th %ile of the probabilistic spread, and see no reason to make much adjustment at this point. Lacy (Today) Surface ridging will advance east of the area this morning and southerly winds will make a return today.