Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
As we progress into the morning and afternoon hours, temperatures will begin to climb back up as an upper level High remains over the southern CONUS and the ridging pattern continues, bringing afternoon highs in the mid to upper 90s. Showers/thunderstorms are expected to continue pushing along the cold front through tomorrow morning before exiting the area by late morning.
- Showers and thunderstorms late this afternoon and evening, some storms could be locally strong or severe - A cooler but still a hot day expected for Wednesday An area of showers and cloud cover over South Central Kansas this morning is slowing down temperatures rise. Wednesday subsidence will return to the region but the atmospheric make up will be a little cooler and drier.
(This evening through Wednesday Night) The upper level ridge over Southern CONUS has yet to go anywhere, however we have seen a slight weakening in the past few days, causing it to shift towards our west. This is allowing for a trough to make itself known to our east, and shifts us into a more northerly flow aloft.
A few scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible along and ahead of an impinging cold front in Northeast GA later tomorrow afternoon and early tomorrow night.
248 PM EDT Tue Jun 25 2024 Showers and thunderstorms are expected again Wednesday into Wednesday night as a cold front moves through the Ohio Valley.
113 PM PDT Tue Jun 25 2024 High pressure over the Desert Southwest will help bring in southerly moisture again today, providing another chance for isolated showers and thunderstorms across northern mountains and deserts.
Highs on Wednesday should be cooler with highs in the mid 80s to low 90s currently expected, but that will be highly dependent on convective evolution. Could be cooler or warmer if precip/cloud stick around longer or dissipate more quickly.
This ridging aloft will help keep temperatures very hot this afternoon with highs climbing into the middle and upper 90s and perhaps even to around 100 degrees in a few locations. The aforementioned surface boundary over south central Alabama continues to dissipate early Wednesday morning as another front begins to move into the Lower Mississippi River Valley. Temperatures will still be hot on Wednesday with highs generally in the lower to middle 90s.
A passing system favors widespread rainfall and some cooler temperatures for the end of the week. Ridging aloft will bring dry conditions while northerly breezes associated with a weak cold front maintain near average temperatures. Unsettled conditions and shower and thunderstorm chances return on Wednesday in advance of an approaching Pacific trough. Ridging aloft will remain in place through tonight before mid- and upper level clouds increase from the southwest Wednesday morning in advance of an approaching Pacific trough. Under the influence of an upper level ridge, mild and dry conditions are forecast.
1240 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024 (Today through Wednesday Night) Broad mid-upper ridging across sw/s parts of the country will dominate regional wx keeping temps slightly above seasonable norms. Ridging expands a bit further northward into the Rockies, putting us in more of a northerly flow aloft.
403 PM EDT Tue Jun 25 2024 A stationary boundary south of the area will lift north across the region as a warm front tonight. A cold front will quickly follow, pushing southeast across the area on Wednesday.
Mohave and Lincoln counties will have the highest threat of flash flooding, while Inyo, Esmeralda, and Nye counties will have the highest threat of damaging wind gusts.
The flow aloft does also become more northerly as the ridge center slips slightly more to the west.
Discussion: Tonight will be clear and quiet as high pressure remains in place. Tomorrow, a trough will move into the TN and Ohio Valleys. At the surface, a cold front will approach the region tomorrow evening.
1240 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024 *Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms possible this afternoon and evening *Cooler temperatures across northern Nebraska this afternoon *Another chance for strong to severe thunderstorms Wednesday *Additional precipitation chances at the end of the week A weak cold front that has pushed across northern Nebraska will keep temperatures cooler with highs in the low to mid 80s across northern Nebraska.
Florida is sitting in a neutral location with upper ridging south and west of Florida, while upper troughing persists north of the area. On the surface, high pressure ridges south of Florida and into the central Gulf of Mexico.
(This evening through Wednesday) H500 ridging remains parked over the southwestern USA with upper troughing near the Great Lakes region resulting in continued northwestern flow across South Plains. At the surface, elongated troughing remains fixed across the Desert Southwest with resultant southwesterly surface flow locally. Continued moisture advection and the passage of a weak upper mid level disturbance rounding the northern portion of the mid level ridge will support isolated to scattered rain showers and thunderstorms across the South Plains and extreme southern Texas Panhandle.
715 PM EDT Tue Jun 25 2024 A cold front crossing the region on Wednesday will bring a return of showers and thunderstorms, especially in the afternoon and evening.
Said progression will only continue overnight, thanks to the PacNW low nudging inland and pushing the broad ridge of high pressure eastward.
559 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024 (Tonight through Wednesday night) Key Messages: - Heat Advisory in effect through 7 PM this evening for the Southern Coastal Bend - Potential for some tropical funnels again tomorrow morning Due to the higher afternoon temperatures and abundance of moisture in the region aiding upper 70s dew points, areas along the Southern Coastal Bend are seeing heat indices around 110-114F.
354 PM MDT Tue Jun 25 2024 - Another hot/dry day today, but cooler than previous days and with less wind.
545 PM MDT Tue Jun 25 2024 - Another hot/dry day today, but cooler than previous days and with less wind.
(Tonight) High pressure continues to run the table through tonight.
(Rest of tonight) A subtle mid-level vort max (located across the high Plains of western SD/NE earlier this evening) will progress southeastward into northwestern MO overnight in the gradient flow between a northern stream trough shifting east-southeastward along the U. This feature and a related frontal wave at the surface will contribute to multiple clusters of thunderstorms that will spread generally east-southeastward from the Mid-MO Valley into the Lower OH-Valley, with most high-resolution model guidance suggesting that a large MCS will evolve out of this activity across southern IA/northern MO later this evening before dropping south- southeastward early Wednesday morning. Otherwise, the combination of slightly higher dewpoints (ranging from the l-m 60s SE to m-u 60s NW) and an increasing coverage of high-level debris clouds will support warmer low temps ranging from the u60s (E) to m70s (W).
801 PM EDT Tue Jun 25 2024 Showers and thunderstorms are expected again Wednesday into Wednesday night as a cold front moves through the Ohio Valley.
1024 PM EDT Tue Jun 25 2024 Showers and thunderstorms are expected again Wednesday into Wednesday night as a cold front moves through the Ohio Valley.
A couple reverse cloudlines across the Lower and Middle Keys got excited towards the late afternoon and early evening.
821 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024 - A weak dry cold front will pass through southwest Kansas Tuesday night and early Wednesday, followed by a northeast to east wind Wednesday, and a slight reduction in the heat.
High pressure remains in place with dry and warm conditions today. A shift in the pattern will bring the next upper trough to the Pacific Northwest, bringing cooler temperatures, breezy winds, and the return of precipitation.
626 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024 (This evening through Wednesday Night) The upper level ridge over Southern CONUS has yet to go anywhere, however we have seen a slight weakening in the past few days, causing it to shift towards our west. This is allowing for a trough to make itself known to our east, and shifts us into a more northerly flow aloft.
612 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024 (This evening through Wednesday) H500 ridging remains parked over the southwestern USA with upper troughing near the Great Lakes region resulting in continued northwestern flow across South Plains. At the surface, elongated troughing remains fixed across the Desert Southwest with resultant southwesterly surface flow locally. Continued moisture advection and the passage of a weak upper mid level disturbance rounding the northern portion of the mid level ridge will support isolated to scattered rain showers and thunderstorms across the South Plains and extreme southern Texas Panhandle.
Stalled low pressure north of Georgian Bay is pushing a secondary cold front south across northern lower MI. Details: Dry conditions expected the rest through tonight as that weak area of high pressure slides overhead. Definitely a bit cooler tomorrow, with highs only expected to top out in the 60s north of the big bridge, and from the mid 60s north to mid 70s southeast across northern lower Michigan. A ridge of high pressure builds over the Great Lakes Region as a trough swings out of the forecast area by Wednesday night.
- A weak dry cold front will pass through southwest Kansas Tuesday night and early Wednesday, followed by a northeast to east wind Wednesday, and a slight reduction in the heat.
647 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024 (This afternoon through Wednesday night) Upper ridging overhead continues to dominate the weather in the short term, though the center of the ridge has nudged westward some compared to yesterday. If for whatever reason Midland doesn't hit 100 degrees today, we likely will tomorrow as temperatures will likely be a touch warmer owing to a slightly stronger ridge that wobbles a bit back to the east. A stronger ridge argues for less shower activity, once again limited to only the Davis Mountains and far western high terrain.
Low temperatures tonight will generally range from the lower 70s across the Lake Okeechobee region to the upper 70s along the coastal areas. With the low-level winds remaining weak to moderate out of the SW, expect a convective regime of showers and thunderstorms first developing along sea breeze boundaries late this morning/early this afternoon, then moving interior/East Coast metro areas.
But the rest of the forecast remains on track with better storm chances during the afternoon tomorrow as an upper-level trough swings through the area with a few of these storms potentially becoming strong to severe with damaging winds the primary threat. Tomorrow continues to appear to be our best rain chances over the next 7 days as an upper trough swings down from the north, forcing a cold front across the region.
144 AM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024 A stationary boundary south of the area will lift north across the region as a warm front tonight. A cold front will quickly follow, pushing southeast across the area on Wednesday.
This will bring another round of convection coming off the High Plains tonight with good model agreement on storms moving into northwest KS generally after 03z and central KS after 06z. Upper ridging will build across the Southern Plains for Sun into Mon and will allow the better storm chances to lift north for the start of the work week. A weak cold front will move southward across the area late tonight through early Wednesday morning. A convective complex dropping south-southeast from the lower Missouri Valley may clip far southeast Kansas toward dawn, so have inserted VCTS at KCNU.
1232 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 (Tonight through Wednesday night) Key Messages: - Heat Advisory in effect through 7 PM this evening for the Southern Coastal Bend - Potential for some tropical funnels again tomorrow morning Due to the higher afternoon temperatures and abundance of moisture in the region aiding upper 70s dew points, areas along the Southern Coastal Bend are seeing heat indices around 110-114F.
245 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 - Thunderstorms this morning will exit off to the southeast early in the day, giving way to a much nicer day with cooler temperatures than we've seen in a while.
352 AM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon and evening with a crossing cold front. ------------------------------------------------------------------- A trough and associated cold front cross the region today, with a late afternoon/evening FROPA.
High temperatures are expected to reach the low to mid 90s, while conditions remain humid.
(Today through Thursday) Key Messages: - Breif periods of heat index values of 105-111 degrees this afternoon - Low chances for showers and thunderstorms Thursday As the eastern periphery of the mid to upper level ridge located in the West Texas region weakens today through tomorrow, a couple of showrtwaves are expected to wrap around it, increasing our rain chances.
An 500 mb trough will move into the TN and Ohio Valleys today, with a surface front set to approach the region this evening. With the precip chances tomorrow and the frontal boundary's influence, high temps on Thursday will run roughly 7-9 degrees cooler than today.
1203 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 (This afternoon through Wednesday night) Upper ridging overhead continues to dominate the weather in the short term, though the center of the ridge has nudged westward some compared to yesterday. If for whatever reason Midland doesn't hit 100 degrees today, we likely will tomorrow as temperatures will likely be a touch warmer owing to a slightly stronger ridge that wobbles a bit back to the east. A stronger ridge argues for less shower activity, once again limited to only the Davis Mountains and far western high terrain.
A cold front arrives Wednesday with wind and storms that last into Thursday.
(Today through Thursday Night) An upper level ridge remains west of Arkansas today providing a northwest flow over Arkansas. The upper ridge will move east Thursday and by Thursday night will be over Arkansas. A cold front will move into the area from the north today. Another round of thunderstorms is expected in central and south sections during the afternoon and evening along the cold front.
(Today through Thursday) The upper level ridge remains centered northwest of the area today. Far to the north of the area, we will be watching for a potential complex of storms this afternoon moving south around the ridge through Arkansas. Global models indicate the ridge building back east over the area Thursday, which would help to limit this possibility. With temperatures at or slightly warmer today, we will continue to see locations near the I-35 corridor and across the Coastal Plains into heat advisory criteria this afternoon. Slightly warmer temperatures are forecast Thursday as heights increase with the aforementioned ridge building east.
1246 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 (This evening through Wednesday) H500 ridging remains parked over the southwestern USA with upper troughing near the Great Lakes region resulting in continued northwestern flow across South Plains. At the surface, elongated troughing remains fixed across the Desert Southwest with resultant southwesterly surface flow locally. Continued moisture advection and the passage of a weak upper mid level disturbance rounding the northern portion of the mid level ridge will support isolated to scattered rain showers and thunderstorms across the South Plains and extreme southern Texas Panhandle.
433 AM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon and evening with a crossing cold front. ------------------------------------------------------------------- A trough and associated cold front cross the region today, with a late afternoon/evening FROPA.
Said progression will only continue overnight, thanks to the PacNW low nudging inland and pushing the broad ridge of high pressure eastward. Regardless, winds ramp up aloft Wednesday night into Thursday as pressure gradients are squeezed between the broad trough to the northwest and ridge (now) to the southeast. Jet dynamics and the approaching trough may support more organized convection by Thursday afternoon.
117 AM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Showers and thunderstorms are expected again Wednesday into Wednesday night as a cold front moves through the Ohio Valley.
UPDATE Storms appear to be struggling given their less than ideal environment and as such the low end svr hail threat appears over. Synoptically speaking, the main pattern is quasi-zonal, but numerous troughs and ridges will be traversing the area in the forecast period.
Storms appear to be struggling given their less than ideal environment and as such the low end svr hail threat appears over. Synoptically speaking, the main pattern is quasi-zonal, but numerous troughs and ridges will be traversing the area in the forecast period.
Our ridge starts to get slightly suppressed and pushed southeastward on Wednesday, in advance of an approaching, long-wave trough to our north.
322 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 - Scattered showers and thunderstorms will linger across central Illinois today before a cold front passes.
In addition to the convection, winds increase in SE Oregon Wednesday afternoon ahead of an approaching cold front with gusts in excess of 30 mph. This will bring very few additional showers, but much cooler air.
2) A strong cold front will push through the region on Thursday with growing support for severe weather across NE Montana from Thursday morning through Thursday evening.
1000 PM MDT Tue Jun 25 2024 - Another hot/dry day today, but cooler than previous days and with less wind.
1142 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024 (This evening through Wednesday Night) The upper level ridge over Southern CONUS has yet to go anywhere, however we have seen a slight weakening in the past few days, causing it to shift towards our west. This is allowing for a trough to make itself known to our east, and shifts us into a more northerly flow aloft.
Enhanced monsoonal moisture across the region will continue to allow thunderstorm chances to persist into the weekend, overall coverage will decrease and be confined mostly to the higher elevations. The early afternoon radar and satellite imagery showing the usual midday showers and thunderstorms forming over the high country north and east of Phoenix with the exception of an isolated storm across far southern Maricopa County. Most of the convection should remain over the high country with a steering flow to the north and away from the Phoenix area. Shower and storm potential does try to trend downward as upper level ridge retrogrades into AZ/NM region this week, which should tend to inhibit convection, especially for the lower deserts.
(Today through Thursday) A rather typical summertime weather pattern will continue across South Florida through Thursday with the region sitting under weak mid-level troughing. With the low-level winds being weak out of the W-SW, expect a convective regime of showers and thunderstorms first developing along sea breeze boundaries late morning/early afternoon, then moving over the interior/East Coast metro areas.
(Wednesday night through Thursday night) PoPs will gradually increase through the short term as the mid level ridge retreats slightly westward with a bit more troughing and moisture coming into place. However, heat index values will remain on the high side over 100 areawide.
Unfortunately, no noticeably cooler air mass is expected behind this boundary. Combined with dew points in the low to mid 70s deg F, dangerous heat indices from 105 to 115 deg F are expected.
233 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Forecast discussion for routine morning forecast issuance - Cooler and less humid weather is expected today, along with a slight chance of showers and possibly a thunderstorm.
627 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 - Thunderstorms this morning will exit off to the southeast early in the day, giving way to a much nicer day with cooler temperatures than we've seen in a while.
730 AM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening ahead of a cold front. However, progression of a trough over the Midwest will enhance vertical wind shear from the southwest across southern Ohio after 15Z.
757 AM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024 (Today through Thursday) A rather typical summertime weather pattern will continue across South Florida through Thursday with the region sitting under weak mid-level troughing. With the low-level winds being weak out of the W-SW, expect a convective regime of showers and thunderstorms first developing along sea breeze boundaries late morning/early afternoon, then moving over the interior/East Coast metro areas.
A weak weather system will bring cooler temperatures and scattered showers to NW Oregon and SW Washington today into Thursday.
421 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 - Cold front passage early this morning leading to pull back in temperature and a breezy northeast wind 15 to 25 mph. It all begins thanks to a cold frontal passage this morning. Said cold front was approaching west central Kansas at 08Z (3 AM CDT), which will be felt by an increase in northeast winds this morning.
205 AM PDT Wed Jun 26 2024 A cold front arrives Wednesday with wind and storms that last into Thursday.
544 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 - Scattered showers and thunderstorms will linger across central Illinois today before a cold front passes.
Better agreement in weather pattern evolution noted between these three model tiers as afternoon hours progress with a more pronounced upper level trough passage expected. Look for best coverage of showers and thunderstorms to shift across eastern portions of our area through evening hours tonight with isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms possible after midnight tonight entire area and across southern and eastern portions of our area as Thursday progresses as upper level troughing shifts eastward tonight and upper level ridging influences slowly build in on Thursday with some lingering moisture possibly across southern and eastern areas dependent on actual cold frontal passage movement.
A shift in the pattern will bring the next upper trough to the Pacific Northwest, bringing cooler temperatures, breezy winds, and the return of precipitation today and Thursday.
611 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 (Today through Thursday) The upper level ridge remains centered northwest of the area today. Far to the north of the area, we will be watching for a potential complex of storms this afternoon moving south around the ridge through Arkansas. Global models indicate the ridge building back east over the area Thursday, which would help to limit this possibility. With temperatures at or slightly warmer today, we will continue to see locations near the I-35 corridor and across the Coastal Plains into heat advisory criteria this afternoon. Slightly warmer temperatures are forecast Thursday as heights increase with the aforementioned ridge building east.
The ridge axis is just to the south, across the Florida Straits, resulting in W/SW flow across the local area today. The sea breeze/outflow collision is forecast to be around the I-95 corridor, where the highest rain and storm chances (PoPs 60 percent) occur. Afternoon highs in the low to mid 90s with peak heat indices ranging from 102-106 degrees.
511 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 - Generally dry and cooler today after some morning showers.
An upper level disturbance and associated surface front will produce widespread marine stratus and relatively cooler temperatures through Thursday. An upper level trough will steadily converge onto the north coast, providing just enough lift to mix the BL and break up the stratus deck with afternoon diurnal heating. With this upper trough also comes cooler temperatures across the CWA. Similarly cool temperatures and diurnally driven NW flow expected with the lowest RHs remaining in eastern counties bordering the Sac Valley. Coastal winds may increase in the afternoon as the thermal trough redevelops beneath building high pressure. Broad, weak ridging is expected to continue late this week with slightly warmer temperatures.