Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
This is due to an ongoing synoptic setup (ridging to our west, troughing to our northeast) allowing for northwesterly flow to continue channeling disturbances across the Southern Great Plains into the Four State Region. Convection associated with this disturbance will diminish by tomorrow morning and temperature maximums/minimums will remain in the lower 90s/low-to- mid 70s, respectively.
Discussion: More sunshine, with warmer afternoon temperatures today. Weak ridging is still over the eastern Tennessee Valley both at the surface and aloft.
940 AM PDT Mon Jun 3 2024 Temperatures in the valleys, mountains and deserts will trend upward this week as high pressure builds over the Great Basin.
Will include a 20 PoP for both of these regions for now for the overall low chance of rain with the higher probabilities of no rain. The low-level thermal profile warms by 2-3C tomorrow which should lead to a 3-4 degree increase in highs tomorrow compared to today.
(Rest of today through Tuesday) Upper level ridge is sitting off to our north with zonal flow setting up over us. With the cloud cover on Tuesday daytime highs will be a bit cooler in the mid 80s.
229 PM EDT Mon Jun 3 2024 High pressure will cover the western Atlantic and southeast United States through Tuesday.
1255 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024 (Today through Tuesday Night) Guidance continues to agree that the mid level flow will be largely quasi-zonal until late in the period and that a series of short wave troughs/mesoscale features will pass through or near the forecast area.
It should at least provide cloud cover, keeping highs in the lower to mid 80s again. Looking at Tuesday night, a later evening arrival of the cold front is now forecast, with most severe weather parameters waning before they enter our CWA.
1152 AM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024 - May see a few strong to severe storms Tuesday afternoon, but will be dependent on recovery from scattered morning storms and timing of a cold front pushing through the region.
High pressure starting to clear clouds in the northwest, and will continue to do so across the CWA through the night. A steady northwest wind should keep temperatures from falling into the lower percentiles, which the NBM is currently forecasting in the upper 30s. A cold front continues to progress across the Northern Plains and moved through North Dakota early this morning. Colder temperatures will continue across the forecast area through the middle of the week thanks to the aforementioned cold front.
Readings on Fri wl top out in the lower 80s to the lower 90s.
332 AM CDT Thu Aug 8 2024 - Cooler than average temperatures continue into the weekend. Overall flow aloft remains out of the northwest as an upper level trough shifts through Ontario. Highs today reach into the low to mid 60s, with morning lows in the mid 40s to lower 50s.
High temperatures climb into the mid 90s across much of the area, while remaining in the low 90s in vicinity of Lake Okeechobee. A cold front sinks across the southeast as Debby lifts further northward along the Atlantic seaboard. High temperatures reach into the low to mid 90s with heat index values nearing the 108 degree mark.
Subtle changes to the upper level pattern will result in a weakening ridge thanks to a strong trough across the Midwest and Tropical Storm Debby pushing into the eastern Atlantic coast. This may allow a weak cold front to push south through Oklahoma into portions of North Texas overnight Thursday into Friday morning. While large scale changes to our sensible weather are unlikely with the potential passage of this weak front, temperatures will be several degrees cooler on Friday with highs in the mid to upper 90s and low 100s. Any lingering cloud cover may help to keep temperatures slightly cooler as well, though it will still be hot out there. As the mid-upper level ridge moves west of us, zonal to northwest flow will allow at least some isolated convective activity to slide down into portions of North Texas.
- Following near-normal temperatures today, a dry cold front passage will bring cooler than normal temperatures Friday through the weekend. The region will remain under the influence of two synoptic-scale troughs through Friday, an elongated trough across the northern Great Lakes region and another associated with Tropical Storm Debby along the Eastern Seaboard. A dry cold front will pass tonight, bringing an uptick in cloud cover.
-Cooler and showery weather is expected both Thursday and Friday. A cold front is moving slowly southward through the Sandhills this afternoon. The other story will be the much cooler temperatures that will filter south into the region behind the cold front. The last time North Platte experienced a high of 65 degrees or cooler was August 11, 1997.
205 AM MDT Thu Aug 8 2024 - Cooler temperatures and isolated showers expected today behind a cold front, especially east of the Divide.
Allowed the Heat Advisory to expire but temperatures continue to hang around in the lower 90s in most areas where a storm did not pass earlier.
Due to this, went with a blend that is slightly cooler than NBM. Lows tonight are expected to be mostly in the low to mid 40s, with some upper 30 degree readings possible in said cold spots in the southwest.
906 PM MDT Wed Aug 7 2024 A secondary push of cooler air has moved through the area this evening, with a boundary currently just south of the MT/WY state line. Chambers Much cooler air mass has moved over the region so conditions will not be nearly as unstable as late yesterday. We have had areas of low clouds associated with the cooler air and upslope which as prevented widespread deeper convection despite the disturbances aloft. By evening into the overnight hours our models shift most of any lingering precipitation to the foothills as cooler more stable air settles over the plains. Weak ridging is expected allowing some monsoonal moisture to creep back north.
07Z water vapor imagery showed a broad upper ridge over the southern plains while an upper low dug into northern MN. Surface obs showed high pressure building over the northern plains with the effective cold front now across central NEB. With the cloud cover and increasing low level cold air advection this afternoon, highs are forecast to range from the middle 70s north to the lower 80s south.
An exiting low pressure system moving into the Dakotas will set up an easterly pressure gradient over the region today.
* Very pleasant weekend with cooler temperatures and lower humidity. A weak sfc cold front is situated across eastern Kentucky this afternoon.
- Cooler and pleasant through the weekend, with temperatures in the upper 60s to mid 70s amidst mostly sunny skies.
- Highs are warmer still for Thursday, with a new heat advisory likely for many parts of west Texas. The dome of high pressure responsible for this heat wobbles a bit further east on Thursday, with highs expected to be about 5-10 degrees warmer than today's highs.
Low temps by morning expected to be in the upper 50s for most areas, warmer in Chicago and near Lake Michigan. Highs will rebound into the lower 80s, perhaps some locations reaching the mid 80s Thursday afternoon. A cold front will move across the area late Thursday evening into early Friday morning.
Friday sees some upper ridging trying to sneak its way back into the area, and low-level winds become more southeasterly. This will slowly remove the low clouds across south-central Montana and allow a slight warmup (though highs still only climbing into the mid 70s).
These clouds should dissipate after sunrise after heating gets going, as the Tennessee Valley will remain under the influence of a broad area of high pressure to the west. As a result, we'll have one more day of very warm temperatures as ample sunshine will allow them to rise into the low to mid 90s.
Remnants of Debby tracking to the east of the Appalachians will bring increased chances for showers, thunderstorms, cloud cover and markedly cooler high temperatures, especially for far northeastern TN, southwest VA, and southwest NC. Phasing with the trough, being pulled north, leading to lower heights, will suppress highs for the northern and eastern parts of the CWA.
As we have been saying over the last few days, the 500 mb ridge remain in place to the north of the region. In fact, if there is a difference compared to yesterday, the core of the ridge has strengthened.
Mid-level high pressure centered over the Texas Panhandle will maintain subsidence over South Texas through the short term period. Given the low tide levels this will make for excellent beach conditions.
Dry and cooler weather follows for the weekend. _____________________________________________________________ Upslope southeast flow may generate some light precipitation in the ridges, especially along east-facing slopes. The spread is even higher in the ridges - ranging from about 0. Rain will taper off from west to east later Friday afternoon and Friday night as the remnant low pulls to the northeast and as a cold front moves through. _____________________________________________________________ In the wake of the Debby remnants, the upper-level trough will expand into the northeast CONUS over the weekend.
Highs will again climb into the 105 to 110 range for areas mainly north of a San Angelo to Brady and San Saba line, closer to the center of the upper level ridge. A little cooler farther south away from the ridge axis and away from the thermal ridge at low levels, but still reaching the 100 to 105 range.
435 AM EDT Thu Aug 8 2024 - Much cooler and lower humidity this weekend. Regardless, it will be warmer than yesterday given modest plume of warmer lower tropospheric air traversing the northern periphery of remnant ridge, coupled with relative deep mixing over our area.
(Today and tonight) The upper ridge will remain mostly overhead today with continued hot temperatures. Additional storms may develop along the higher terrain of New Mexico and move east southeast with the weak steering flow aloft.
A weak cold frontal boundary is moving south, with a few brief showers popping up from east Mississippi into Alabama earlier this evening. "Cool" weather in this context means high temperatures tomorrow in the lower to mid 90s instead of upper 90s. /NF/ Hot and dry pattern should continue for the remainder of the week under the influence of upper ridging, reinforced by Tropical Storm Debby to the east.
And weak it shall be because the only change is the lower relative humidity values, especially across South Mississippi. This is good news at least for those inland areas given that the lower humidity will keep these locations from reaching Heat Advisory criteria today.
(Today through Friday) The subtropical ridge axis now runs NW-SE into much of TX with Central Texas now close to the center of this axis. It will also remain over this area Friday when a backdoor cold front settles over North-Central TX. A more easterly surface wind direction could end up lowering afternoon RH values to ease some of the highest heat index values, but pooling of elevated dew points are also projected south of the front, so we'll stand pat on the higher heat index values for one more day. The Heat Advisory was extended into early Friday evening for the same counties as before, noting that similar values to the west fail to meet the higher criteria threshold for those counties.
317 AM CDT Thu Aug 8 2024 - Front passes through the state today with cooler air arriving.
With high pressure deepening over the region, daytime temperatures should continue to warm the next couple of days.
Upper ridging remained over the Four Corners region.
1151 PM CDT Wed Aug 7 2024 (Tonight through Friday night) Upper air analysis shows the 594 mb heights overhead, with the center of the high located over the Four Corners region. The associated ridge with this high pushes well past Acadiana and is located deep into the Gulf Coast. This high-pressure regime will remain in control of our weather pattern through the end of the week and into the weekend. A combination of high temperatures in the upper 90s and dew points in the high 70s will drive our heat index values above 110 across the region. Â Our weather pattern will begin to change this weekend as a weak cold front moves through the region.
309 AM EDT Thu Aug 8 2024 High pressure builds in tonight and brings dry conditions through Thursday.
- A dry cold frontal passage provides lower humid and slightly cooler conditions Friday.
- Scattered showers, cooler temperatures, and breezy winds this weekend. Upstream mid level troughing will continue to work east. with primary mid level wave/closed low reaching vicinity northern Lake Superior by early Friday morning. Attendant surface cold front will lead the charge, cutting across our area later this afternoon and evening. Areas south of the big bridge look to remain largely dry as sub H7 level moisture profiles are very limited and with further removal from forcing. Big bowling ball upper low lifts and rotates across Ontario, dancing the fujiwara with another robust piece of energy diving down from Hudson('s) Bay.
1213 AM CDT Thu Aug 8 2024 (This evening through Thursday) Expect very hot temperatures again on Thursday as a strong upper level ridge remains over the area. Highs on Thursday will be 105 to 109 across the northern 2/3 of the area and a little cooler, 100 to 104 along the I-10 corridor.
The dominance of mid/upper ridging will continue to drive the weather in the short term.
200 AM EDT Thu Aug 8 2024 - Much cooler and lower humidity this weekend. Regardless, it will be warmer than yesterday given modest plume of warmer lower tropospheric air traversing the northern periphery of remnant ridge, coupled with relative deep mixing over our area.
305 AM EDT Thu Aug 8 2024 Slightly cooler air has moved into the area, with high pressure centered over southeastern Canada, and Tropical Storm Debby near the southeast coast. Another cold front will move into the area Friday, providing additional cooling and drying for the weekend. Low temperatures will range from the lower 60s northwest to upper 60s southeast. As Debby remnants push off to the northeast, cooler and drier air will move into the region.
- Looking ahead, cooler and pleasant through the weekend, with highs in the upper 60s to mid 70s and lows in the upper 40s and 50s. Skies were clearing across western and central Minnesota as northwest winds were bringing cooler and drier air across the region.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms developed again today across northern Arizona mainly over the higher terrain from Flagstaff southeast to the White Mountains and over central Apache/northern Navajo counties. The persistent high pressure center over northern Arizona into Nevada and Utah will remain nearly stationary through Friday with an easterly wave moving westward through Sonora.
1047 PM CDT Wed Aug 7 2024 Surface analysis this evening places a cold front from east Tennessee back through central Mississippi and southern Arkansas. Slightly cooler and drier air will continue to impact the Mid- South through the end of the week, ending the need for heat products. Another cold front will impact the area on Friday, allowing for weekend temperatures to remain in the 80s.
1246 AM CDT Thu Aug 8 2024 (This evening through Thursday) Upper level ridging and the associated dome of high pressure extending from southern CA to north TX will remain overhead through the short term period. Thankfully, a cooling trend is on the horizon thanks to an upper level low tracking across the upper Midwest which will sling a surface front across the region beginning Thursday afternoon.
This has helped bring some low clouds into northern Middle Tennessee this morning, along with somewhat cooler temperatures.
High pressure to our west continues to dominate the forecast with dry northwesterly flow continuing. Due to the lower dewpoints, most areas will not reach Heat Advisory criteria on Thursday, with the exception of coastal areas of AL and the western FL panhandle.
146 AM EDT Thu Aug 8 2024 - Mostly Dry Through Friday - Cooler with Some Weekend Precip Chances No update with any meaningful impact needed for this evening. The low levels remain dry through the night, keeping the area dry from rain. The high clouds will exit to the east overnight. A weak and mostly dry cold front will sweep through the area Thursday afternoon and evening presenting increased cloud cover and low rain chances for the central and northern lower MI lakeshore. - Cooler with Some Weekend Precip Chances Thermal troughing stays rooted in the region through the weekend.
Expect another warm night with lows in the lower 70s to lower 80s.
1131 PM MDT Wed Aug 7 2024 - Cold front moves through the region today, isolated to scattered showers/storms possible. - Cooler temperatures for the latter half of the week. Most recent surface analysis shows cold frontal boundary mostly through the forecast area this afternoon. Current upper air analysis shows quasi- zonal flow over the region, with upper high still over the four corners region and an upper low over southern Manitoba. Could see some small chances for isolated showers/storms Thursday and Friday as the upper low rotates southeast into the Great Lakes region, though very little instability over the region, so severe storms are not expected.
(Friday through next Thursday) On Friday, what looks to be a dry boundary will slip through the region and usher in a very un-August-like air mass of cooler temperatures and lower dew points for the weekend.
(Thursday night through Friday night) A broad trough remains over much of the eastern U. High temperatures will be split across the 90s on Friday, with the the mid to upper 90s being found along and west of a line from Albany, GA to Tallahassee Fl while areas east of those points will be closer to the low to mid 90s.
By this evening, it does look like we may actually a slight increase in shower potential across the higher elevations, maybe across the Snake Plain.
- Following near-normal temperatures today, a dry cold front passage will bring cooler than normal temperatures Friday through the weekend. The region will remain under the influence of two synoptic-scale troughs through Friday, an elongated trough across the northern Great Lakes region and another associated with Tropical Storm Debby along the Eastern Seaboard. A dry cold front will pass tonight, bringing an uptick in cloud cover. Only exception will be at MVN, where some additional mid-level clouds will arrive very late tonight with an approaching dry cold front.
522 AM MDT Thu Aug 8 2024 - Cooler temperatures and isolated showers expected today behind a cold front, especially east of the Divide.
630 AM CDT Thu Aug 8 2024 (Today through Friday) The subtropical ridge axis now runs NW-SE into much of TX with Central Texas now close to the center of this axis. It will also remain over this area Friday when a backdoor cold front settles over North-Central TX. A more easterly surface wind direction could end up lowering afternoon RH values to ease some of the highest heat index values, but pooling of elevated dew points are also projected south of the front, so we'll stand pat on the higher heat index values for one more day. The Heat Advisory was extended into early Friday evening for the same counties as before, noting that similar values to the west fail to meet the higher criteria threshold for those counties.
Dry and cooler weather follows for the weekend. The spread is even higher in the ridges - ranging from about 0. Rain will taper off from west to east later Friday afternoon and Friday night as the remnant low pulls to the northeast and as a cold front moves through. _____________________________________________________________ In the wake of the Debby remnants, the upper-level trough will expand into the northeast CONUS over the weekend.
A cold front is expected to push into the NW portion of the state on Friday, dropping max temperatures a few degrees near and NW of the Atlanta metro area.
Friday through the weekend, Debby pulls away to the north, while surface ridging builds in south of Florida setting up southwesterly flow.
624 AM CDT Thu Aug 8 2024 - Cooler than average temperatures continue into the weekend. Low pressure is starting to move down from Canada this morning, with isolated showers moving across the International Border this hour. Otherwise, temperatures this morning are in the low to mid 40s across the area. Overall flow aloft remains out of the northwest as an upper level trough shifts through Ontario. Highs today reach into the low to mid 60s, with morning lows in the mid 40s to lower 50s.
642 AM CDT Thu Aug 8 2024 (Today and tonight) The upper ridge will remain mostly overhead today with continued hot temperatures. Additional storms may develop along the higher terrain of New Mexico and move east southeast with the weak steering flow aloft.
Hi-res models have some clearing taking place during the morning hours, which will most likely lead to thunderstorms beginning to develop along the high terrain after 12 pm MST, becoming more widespread by 3-4 pm MST, according to the HRRR, HREF, and WRF-ARW. Given the high PWATs and instability, brief heavy rainfall with rates of 1-2 inches per hour remains the main threat from storms with some isolated severe storms possible. High pressure will likely persist over the Southwest and into Texas through this weekend with scattered showers and thunderstorms forecast each afternoon and evening across northern Arizona.
717 AM EDT Thu Aug 8 2024 High pressure builds in tonight and brings dry conditions through Thursday.
* The cooling trend will be driven by the a trough passing through the Pacific NW over the weekend.
(Today and tonight) Cooler temps across the board this morning compared to 24 hours ago. 500 mb heights basically hold steady today keeping temps on the warmer side for interior areas of the Central Coast. However, better onshore flow and starting the day with some high clouds due to tropical moisture will keep areas from the Bay Area northward a few degrees cooler today.
- Front passes through the state today with cooler air arriving.
As the weak "cold" front pushes down through the region today temps will be limited by a few degrees with high temps only warming into the low to mid 90s in contrast to the upper 90s to right around 100 degrees not meeting advisory criteria thus the heat advisory will not continue today. /KP/ Friday: After today's break from elevated heat stress, we'll see heat and low level moisture briefly surge again Friday across southern portions of the area ahead of a weak cold front.
540 AM CDT Thu Aug 8 2024 Updated at 528 AM CDT Thu Aug 8 2024 - Cold front arrives in the north today. But one more hot day in most areas before the cooler air filters in. This is not the significantly cooler air yet, but is likely enough to take the edge off of the temperatures in the north today. The cooler air will arrive this evening and lows should be in the 60s across the northwestern third of the area.
Updated at 507 AM CDT Thu Aug 8 2024 - Cold front arrives in the north today. But one more hot day in most areas before the cooler air filters in. This is not the significantly cooler air yet, but is likely enough to take the edge off of the temperatures in the north today. The cooler air will arrive this evening and lows should be in the 60s across the northwestern third of the area.
High pressure over the western North Atlantic and slow-moving Debby over the Carolinas will maintain gentle to occasionally moderate southwest breezes across the Keys coastal waters today.
Upper low near Lake of the Woods will continue to bring cyclonic flow to eastern portions of our area with some lower clouds passing through, along with possibly a few little light showers later on today. Temperatures this morning are cool for this time of year with most locations in western ND in the low 40s, and those in central ND in the mid 40s. Due to this, went with a blend that is slightly cooler than NBM. Lows tonight are expected to be mostly in the low to mid 40s, with some upper 30 degree readings possible in said cold spots in the southwest.