Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Slightly higher dewpoints across NE TX however but not as high as this time yesterday with the Tyler and Lufkin areas dealing with heat indices between 105 and 110 degrees as they were just ahead of our backdooring cold front on Tue. Did not stray too far from NBM temps Thu into Thu Night with slightly warmer temperatures across our western third with slightly milder temperatures across our far NE zones and lower to middle 90s elsewhere across N LA.
1205 PM EDT Wed Aug 21 2024 Upper level low pressure approaches the region today and then crosses the area on Thursday.
Those small chances expand across the entire area tomorrow, but again, most locations will remain dry as the mid-level ridge strengthens over the area.
The upper high currently centered over New Mexico will drift slowly eastward tonight through tomorrow afternoon and will be centered over the FA for most of the day tomorrow. This will allow tomorrow's highs to be a degree or two warmer than today. This area has maintained somewhat of a southeasterly surface flow which has mostly kept temperatures cooler than areas to the west and east. Models, specifically the NAM, shows a similar scenario tomorrow and keeps highs cooler than the surrounding counties.
For today, northwesterly flow aloft continues as our region lies in between an upper ridge over the Southern Plains and an upper trough over the eastern US. At the surface, high pressure to our north will allow for light northerly winds to continue. Highs today will top out in the low to mid 90s and with the low dewpoints, apparent temperatures will likely remain near the actual temperatures. Meanwhile, the high to our north will shift towards the Appalachians. Areas that see the better moisture return overnight (generally east of I-65) will only drop into the low 70s, whereas areas to the west of I-65 should manage to drop into the mid to upper 60s due a more favorable environment for radiational cooling to occur. Highs tomorrow will be in the low 90s areawide.
1112 AM EDT Wed Aug 21 2024 High pressure along with cooler and drier air moving into the region continues to persist into the weekend.
Conversely, a summertime ridge holds its place over the Southern Plains and into the Four Corners Region (UT/AZ/NM/CO). This has brought fair weather to our region with the anomalous trough allowing cooler than average temperatures for August to seep into the region. With clear skies and light to moderate winds tonight, lows will be cooler in the 50s.
Yesterday's cold front will remain nearly stationary near the Highway 281 corridor, resulting in a rather sharp temperature gradient across the region this afternoon. Temperatures will range from the low 90s across our northeast to 105-108 degrees across the west.
122 PM EDT Wed Aug 21 2024 High pressure brings dry weather through the weekend. Becoming hot late week as high pressure also builds aloft. Another good radiational cooling night on tap across the area with high pressure in control. A slight uptick in temperatures can be expected on Thursday ridge across central U. Stout upper level ridging parked over the heart of the country this week will continue to promote dry weather.
241 PM EDT Wed Aug 21 2024 High pressure remains in control over the region for the remainder of the week, allowing for dry conditions. Again, radiative cooling processes take over and we'll cool to the low 50s/ upper 40s again during the overnight hours. Blocking pattern continues to slowly shift east and the center of the ridge will move closer to the ILN FA on Thursday. Overnight lows again fall into the low 50s. A mid level ridge (anomalous high in strength for the time of year) will slowly build north and east into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley through this period. Will keep a dry forecast going into this weekend, although some weak mid level disturbances moving southeast through the building ridge axis will bring more clouds, and perhaps a low chance of a shower/storm.
425 PM EDT Wed Aug 21 2024 The slow moving upper level storm system that has been circulating clouds and Fall-like conditions across our region during the past couple days will now give way to high pressure that will guarantee fair weather with day to day warming into the upcoming weekend. Mins will once again dip into the low to mid 40s across the interior of the Srn Tier. while the lake plains will generally experience readings in the low to mid 50s. expansive high pressure over the Mid west will make its way to the Mid Atlantic region.
The incoming upper level low is centered over the northern Idaho Panhandle. A more widespread chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms is forecast to develop over the higher terrain after 18Z and continue until around 02Z. Another round of afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms are expected once again today in response to the Pacific NW trough ejecting northeastward into the Northern Rockies. Convective timing looks roughly similar to the last couple of days with storms initiating over the higher terrain of Central/Southwest MT by mid- afternoon before moving off to the northeast later in the afternoon and evening. The combination of slightly cooler air aloft and cloud cover will cool afternoon temperatures closer to average.
130 PM CDT Wed Aug 21 2024 (Today through Thursday) A large upper ridge persists over the central states and a weakening upper trof pattern over the eastern states maintain a dry, deep layer northerly flow over the forecast area for today and tonight. A weak surface trof/frontal boundary oriented over the northern Gulf slowly drifts into coastal portions of the forecast area, likely aided by the sea breeze, but deep layer moisture looks too limited to consider convective development with this feature. Highs today and Thursday will be mostly in the mid 90s, and lows tonight range from the mid 60s well inland to the lower/mid 70s closer to the coast.
1253 PM EDT Wed Aug 21 2024 The influence of an upper low will keep the conditions on the cool side through tonight.
257 PM EDT Wed Aug 21 2024 (This afternoon through Thursday) A positively-tilted upper-level trough is in place over the eastern CONUS, placing north and central GA under northwesterly to westerly flow aloft.
Synoptic composite analysis places a stubborn upper-level trough parked over the Northeast and the Mid-Atlantic. Meanwhile, a ridge of high pressure continues to build westward in the North Atlantic, with the latitude of its axis transecting south-central Florida. Temperatures at most communities are hovering near 90F, with heat indices in the low to mid 100s at this mid- afternoon hour. Overall, the aforementioned ridge will continue to build westward, resulting in winds clocking around to the east and freshening for the next several days.
A broad anticyclonic blocking pattern describes the overall synoptic pattern across the CONUS this afternoon. Expansive troughing is present over the Pacific Northwest and over New England. Between these two features, an upper-level ridge centered in eastern New Mexico and western Texas continues to expands its influence into the central and northern plains. Closer to the surface, 925MB guidance showcases a lower-level high pressure system over the Minnesota/Illinois border later on this evening. In terms of precipitation chances, tomorrow is forecasted to be dry, as most the instability is located just upstream of the upper-level ridge axis. Due to clear conditions prevailing in the short term, tonight's lows are expected to be cooler than normal for most the forecast region, bottoming out in low to mid 50s for eastern portions and in the lower 60s in western portions of the region.
1253 PM CDT Wed Aug 21 2024 (Today through Thursday) The upper level ridge over New Mexico will continue to dominate our weather through the short term period. At the surface, there is a stationary front draped along the eastern edge of the ridge extending from the Texas Panhandle to Galveston. This boundary has the low level winds out of the southwest and this should continue at least through the morning today. High temperatures will reach 100 everywhere with 105 or higher everywhere except the highest parts of the Hill Country and southern Edwards Plateau. The stationary front to the east may begin to erode the upper ridge slightly starting Thursday and some minor height falls may take a couple of degrees off the high temperatures.
WV imagery this afternoon shows the upper ridge centered over eastern New Mexico, resulting in rather warm temperatures, and heat products over the eastern fringes of the CWA, where higher dewpoints are resulting in higher heat indices/discomfort. The low at KMAF this morning was 79 F. Thursday, the upper ridge develops east, centering over the South Plains or a little east. The good news is that, after Thursday, the ridge keeps developing east, taking the focus off West Texas and Southeast New Mexico.
115 PM EDT Wed Aug 21 2024 High pressure will provide for dry conditions through the rest of the week. Temperatures will remain well below normal with afternoon highs in the low to mid 70s.
318 PM EDT Wed Aug 21 2024 High pressure in control through the end of the week into the weekend. High pressure settling in over the Great Lakes which will be the primary driver of the sensible weather for the foreseeable future.
952 PM EDT Wed Aug 21 2024 The slow moving upper level storm system that has been circulating clouds and Fall-like conditions across our region during the past couple days will now give way to high pressure that will guarantee fair weather with day to day warming into the upcoming weekend. Mins will once again dip into the low to mid 40s across the interior of the Srn Tier. while the lake plains will generally experience readings in the low to mid 50s. expansive high pressure over the Mid west will make its way to the Mid Atlantic region.
646 PM EDT Wed Aug 21 2024 A slow moving upper level low will track across the Northeast US tonight and Thursday with chilly and unsettled weather for northeast PA and central NY. After this low passes east, high pressure will build in for the end of the week into the weekend with fair and warmer weather. For the rest of this afternoon scattered to numerous showers will continue as an upper level low tracks into northern New England. After sunset, heating is lost, upper level low is over northern Maine, and subsidence kicks in on the synoptic scale in addition to the diurnal loss of lifting.
957 PM EDT Wed Aug 21 2024 High pressure in control through the end of the week into the weekend. High pressure settling in over the Great Lakes which will be the primary driver of the sensible weather for the foreseeable future.
649 PM EDT Wed Aug 21 2024 High pressure in control through the end of the week into the weekend. High pressure settling in over the Great Lakes which will be the primary driver of the sensible weather for the foreseeable future.
742 PM EDT Wed Aug 21 2024 The slow moving upper level storm system that has been circulating clouds and Fall-like conditions across our region during the past couple days will now give way to high pressure that will guarantee fair weather with day to day warming into the upcoming weekend. Mins will once again dip into the low to mid 40s across the interior of the Srn Tier. while the lake plains will generally experience readings in the low to mid 50s. expansive high pressure over the Mid west will make its way to the Mid Atlantic region.
High pressure overhead, with winds lightening. Although winds are northerly, temperatures are around 4 to 6 degrees warmer than yesterday afternoon with the increasing heights aloft moving overhead. Overnight temperatures will continue to be cooler with most locations dropping down into the 40s, and typical colder spots possibly touching the high 30s. Pattern Synopsis and Forecast: Longwave midlevel ridging along the northern atmospheric branch over continues to push a quiet and stable air mass to the Central U. Not much will change by the start of the forecast period as aformentioned ridging is still sitting over the central U.
959 PM EDT Wed Aug 21 2024 High pressure remains in control over the region for the remainder of the week, allowing for dry conditions. Blocking pattern continues to slowly shift east and the center of the ridge will move closer to the ILN FA on Thursday. Overnight lows again fall into the low 50s. A mid level ridge (anomalous high in strength for the time of year) will slowly build north and east into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley through this period. Will keep a dry forecast going into this weekend, although some weak mid level disturbances moving southeast through the building ridge axis will bring more clouds, and perhaps a low chance of a shower/storm.
946 PM EDT Wed Aug 21 2024 A slow moving upper level low will track across the Northeast US tonight and Thursday with chilly and unsettled weather for northeast PA and central NY. After this low passes east, high pressure will build in for the end of the week into the weekend with fair and warmer weather. For the rest of this afternoon scattered to numerous showers will continue as an upper level low tracks into northern New England. After sunset, heating is lost, upper level low is over northern Maine, and subsidence kicks in on the synoptic scale in addition to the diurnal loss of lifting.
(This afternoon through Thursday) A positively-tilted upper-level trough is in place over the eastern CONUS, placing north and central GA under northwesterly to westerly flow aloft.
Although winds are northerly, temperatures are around 4 to 6 degrees warmer than yesterday afternoon with the increasing heights aloft moving overhead. Overnight temperatures will continue to be cooler with most locations dropping down into the 40s, and typical colder spots possibly touching the high 30s. Pattern Synopsis and Forecast: Longwave midlevel ridging along the northern atmospheric branch over continues to push a quiet and stable air mass to the Central U. Not much will change by the start of the forecast period as aformentioned ridging is still sitting over the central U.
1056 PM EDT Wed Aug 21 2024 *Early taste of Fall fades with seasonal warmup by the weekend *Summertime conditions return for the last week of August Lake clouds and residual remnant clouds from earlier light shra extend from the NW Mountains to the Lower Susq late this evening. Partly to mostly sunny skies with max temps in the upper 60s to mid 70s trend warmer day/day, but remain 5-10 degrees below late August climo.
Chattanooga Airport, TN 64 87 64 89 / 0 10 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 59 85 60 87 / 0 10 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 59 84 60 87 / 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 54 80 53 83 / 0 0 0 0.
00Z sfc analysis shows high pressure working deeper into the area from the north. Currently, temperatures are running in the mid 60s on the ridges and in the more open terrain with some upper 50s found in the sheltered valleys. Expect a decent ridge to valley split tonight along with river valley fog formation - especially for the far east. Aloft, H500 heights rise from 583 to 590 decameters through the short term as low pressure and its associated trough lift northeast out of New England and the eastern CONUS while a high pressure centered over Texas noses its way into the Ohio and Tennessee valley regions. The period begins with upper-level ridge building across the southern CONUS.
801 PM EDT Wed Aug 21 2024 High pressure along with cooler and drier air moving into the region continues to persist into the weekend.
Two more days of monsoonal activity is expected across northwestern Arizona before a trough of low pressure moves into the intermountain-west and dries out the region. This trough will also help to cool temperatures to below-average readings by this weekend.
751 PM EDT Wed Aug 21 2024 High pressure in control through the end of the week into the weekend. High pressure settling in over the Great Lakes which will be the primary driver of the sensible weather for the foreseeable future.
757 PM EDT Wed Aug 21 2024 High pressure remains in control over the region for the remainder of the week, allowing for dry conditions. Again, radiative cooling processes take over and we'll cool to the low 50s/ upper 40s again during the overnight hours. Blocking pattern continues to slowly shift east and the center of the ridge will move closer to the ILN FA on Thursday. Overnight lows again fall into the low 50s. A mid level ridge (anomalous high in strength for the time of year) will slowly build north and east into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley through this period. Will keep a dry forecast going into this weekend, although some weak mid level disturbances moving southeast through the building ridge axis will bring more clouds, and perhaps a low chance of a shower/storm.
The weak, stalled boundary currently situated west of the Highway 281 corridor will continue to become indistinguishable within the overall surface flow. Most will continue to remain dry as strong ridging aloft maintains its hold over the region. /Issued 226 PM CDT Wed Aug 21 2024/ /Thursday Night Onward/ Unfortunately as mid-upper level ridging continues to be planted atop the Southern Plains, above-normal heat will persist into the weekend. Heat indices will continue to be at least a few degrees above the high, indicating the extension and/or reconfiguration of heat headlines into this upcoming weekend.
626 PM CDT Wed Aug 21 2024 (Through tonight) Overall a quiet night is in store for much of the area as the region remains under eastern periphery of the upper level ridge.
750 PM EDT Wed Aug 21 2024 A slow moving upper level low will track across the Northeast US tonight and Thursday with chilly and unsettled weather for northeast PA and central NY. After this low passes east, high pressure will build in for the end of the week into the weekend with fair and warmer weather. For the rest of this afternoon scattered to numerous showers will continue as an upper level low tracks into northern New England. After sunset, heating is lost, upper level low is over northern Maine, and subsidence kicks in on the synoptic scale in addition to the diurnal loss of lifting.
The upper low will bring clouds and isolated showers north of the Capital Region on Thursday, as high pressure builds in with a dry end of the work week and weekend. Skies continue to clear throughout the day tomorrow from south to north as the upper low slides farther north and east. High temperatures tomorrow will be a little warmer than today with mid/upper 60s to low 70s with pockets of low 60s above 1500 ft. Any lingering showers wrapped around the back side of the low will taper off swiftly upon the loss of daytime heating tomorrow evening, yielding dry conditions across the region.
(Now through Thursday) A rather pleasant afternoon is unfolding across the Gulf Coast region with temperatures currently hovering in the lower 90s. The highest coverage will be along the coast and over South Central Alabama. High temperatures will be a couple degrees warmer over parts of southeast Mississippi and far southwest Alabama where rain chances will be lower. Temperatures are expected to rise into the lower and middle 90s with some locations only reaching into the upper 80s in parts of south central Alabama.
(Rest of tonight) High pressure will continue to enforce cooler and drier air before the pattern shifts and a warming trend begins for the later half of the week.
925 PM EDT Wed Aug 21 2024 The influence of an upper low will keep the conditions on the cool side through tonight.
627 PM EDT Wed Aug 21 2024 The influence of an upper low will keep the conditions on the cool side through tonight.
Otherwise, many areas will be warm, muggy, and quiet with lows in the low/mid 70s.
317 AM EDT Thu Aug 22 2024 The slow moving upper level storm system that has been circulating clouds and Fall-like conditions across our region during the past couple days will now give way to high pressure that will guarantee fair weather with day to day warming into the upcoming weekend. Mins will once again dip into the low to mid 40s across the interior of the Srn Tier. while the lake plains will generally experience readings in the low to mid 50s. expansive high pressure over the Mid west will make its way to the Mid Atlantic region. A mid-level ridge spread across the central Great Lakes Friday morning will support broad surface level high pressure centered over the Mid-Atlantic to spread north across the lower Great Lakes.
With a cool airmass in place areawide, afternoon high temperatures are forecast to range from upper 80s across southwest Arkansas to the low to mid 90s elsewhere. With surface and upper-level high pressure prevailing through the short term period, light winds and mostly clear skies to prevail areawide.
331 AM EDT Thu Aug 22 2024 (Today through Friday) 500mb trough is currently situated across the SE portion of the country. The trough will remain in place through the short term period, with a cut off low forming in the NE GOMEX by early Friday. At the surface, high pressure will continue with a wedge building down from the NE through tomorrow.
Late Thursday into Friday, an upper level low will slide south and stall just off the Oregon coast, then shift eastward over Washington, Oregon, and northern California. This low will bring widespread soaking rain, keeping conditions cool and showery over the upcoming weekend. This low continues to bring chances of light showers over the southwest WA and northwest OR coast and Coast Range. Expect showers to reach inland overnight into Thursday morning as the low approaches and begins to stall in our coastal waters. This low is then set to slowly move inland late Thursday into Friday, moving over Oregon, Washington and northern California.
108 AM EDT Thu Aug 22 2024 The influence of an upper low will keep the conditions on the cool side through tonight.
Current surface analysis shows low pressure over southeastern MT, with a frontal boundary stretching into southwest SD this afternoon. Upper air models continue to show ridge over the northern plains, with upper High over the southern plains.
123 AM EDT Thu Aug 22 2024 High pressure remains in control over the region for the remainder of the week, allowing for dry conditions. Blocking pattern continues to slowly shift east and the center of the ridge will move closer to the ILN FA on Thursday. Overnight lows again fall into the low 50s. A mid level ridge (anomalous high in strength for the time of year) will slowly build north and east into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley through this period. Will keep a dry forecast going into this weekend, although some weak mid level disturbances moving southeast through the building ridge axis will bring more clouds, and perhaps a low chance of a shower/storm.
Broad 500 mb high pressure centered over New Mexico and the Texas Panhandle will be the dominant weather feature over the BRO CWFA. However, slightly cooler high temperatures, along with a slightly drier atmosphere, will preclude the need for another HEAT ADVISORY on Friday. The mid-level ridge will also produce dry weather, although some very isolated showers cannot be ruled out for the far offshore Gulf of Mexico waters, especially on Friday.
The Lower Treasure Valley and Weiser Basin are likely to experience the densest smoke, starting around 3 AM MDT and lasting through late morning. Combined with warmer temperatures and dry conditions, this will create ideal conditions for active fire behavior. Dry weather will continue and temperatures will moderate a bit on Friday ahead of a cold front. The cold front will move through the area on Friday evening bringing a 20 to 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms.
1223 AM CDT Thu Aug 22 2024 (Rest of tonight) High pressure will continue to enforce cooler and drier air before the pattern shifts and a warming trend begins for the later half of the week.