Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Aloft, an upper ridge will remain over portions of the Four Corners, potentially wobbling as far E as the Srn Rockies. At the surface, winds should stay E/NE through Tuesday as high pressure remains to the N and E of AR. Today, high temps should top out in the lower 80s to around 90 degrees and by the weekend highs should top out in the lower to middle 90s.
Isolated, terrain driven showers may deliver brief downpours near mountain ridges on Tuesday and Wednesday, but the majority will remain within an ongoing dry spell.
- A pattern change to northwest flow and a building ridge will occur over the weekend. The broad trough across the region starts to get narrower today as a ridge builds into the southernmost portions of Alaska and British Columbia. That in turn drives a low pressure system directly over central Idaho and western Montana.
Tonight, the ridging that has been controlling our local sensible weather will continue to weaken.
High pressure has built over the Southwest. Temperatures beneath the high will continue to trend 5 degrees above average. A few clouds are streaming across the top of the ridge, but looking at the mid day sounding here in Grand Junction, one can see little hope for any surface moisture. On Wednesday the high pressure will be centered over New Mexico keeping us in southwest flow aloft. On the periphery of the high is where the jet will be located.
132 AM CDT Tue Aug 5 2025 - Wildfire smoke will continue to blanket the area today, with the highest concentrations staying aloft. Wildfire smoke will blanket most of Illinois again today, with the highest concentrations staying aloft. The remainder of the week will feature relatively tame weather as the periphery of an upper-level ridge pushes into the Mid- Mississippi Valley.
(Today and tonight) The upper level ridge centered across the Desert Southwest will nudge a bit to the east on Tuesday, ending rain chances across the region. Overnight lows will be in the low to mid 70s.
(Today through Wednesday) Upper trough continues across the middle and lower Mississippi River Valley, with upper ridging over New Mexico. At the surface, weak low pressure was noted over Georgia with a stationary boundary just south of Interstate 10. East of the trough axis, the airmass remains rather moist, with precipitable water value of 2. Satellite indicates there is easterly flow at low levels producing an area of convergence ahead of the trough axis.
156 AM EDT Tue Aug 5 2025 High pressure builds down over the region from Quebec through Wednesday night.
709 AM EDT Tue Aug 5 2025 * High pressure over eastern Canada and the northeastern U. Stability drops thru the day, but the early CIN and cloud cover (and haze/smoke) potentially keeping temps cooler than NBM forecast argue against more than a 20 PoP and KIPT forecast soundings argue against mentioning TS. Even then, the convection will be rather disorganized until the approach of a cold front from the NW. Temps will be gradually, slowly getting warmer, and humidity will also rise. The low temperature of 41 degrees was observed in Bradford on August 2nd, which tied the previous record set back in 1985. The low temperature of 47 degrees was observed in Altoona on August 3rd, which broke the previous record of 48 degrees set back in 1959.
939 AM EDT Tue Aug 5 2025 High pressure will remain centered over Quebec through Wednesday, then gradually move offshore of the New England coast by the end of the week. Meanwhile, a broad area of low pressure is forecast to develop over the next couple of days off of the southeastern U. High pressure near James Bay will strengthen through early Wed as it builds southeastward toward the St.
553 AM CDT Tue Aug 5 2025 - Wildfire smoke will continue to blanket the area today, with the highest concentrations staying aloft. Wildfire smoke will blanket most of Illinois again today, with the highest concentrations staying aloft. The remainder of the week will feature relatively tame weather as the periphery of an upper-level ridge pushes into the Mid- Mississippi Valley.
08Z sfc analysis shows eastern Kentucky between high pressure to the east and lower pressure to the southwest. They all depict a pattern dominated by a burgeoning Southwestern 5h ridge with downstream troughing for the Ohio Valley. Though fairly weak, this troughing will mean plenty of mid level energy around through the period over Kentucky even as the 5h heights will be climbing with time. Sensible weather features a continuation of our slightly cooler than normal weather through mid week on account of a fair amount of clouds around along with a potential for showers and storms. Each day looks a bit warmer than the previous in this pattern while nights will be gradually milder, as well.
814 AM EDT Tue Aug 5 2025 Upper level ridging near Bermuda extends west-southwestward across Florida and into the central gulf. Farther to the west, upper troughing extends southward through the Mississippi River Valley. This boundary is sandwiched between a pair of high pressure centers over New England and another extending westward across the Florida peninsula. This ridging will keep a southeast through southwest wind flow over the region today. By Wednesday morning, the stationary boundary remains stretched east to west across northern Florida, while high pressure in the eastern gulf becomes the dominant weather feature for west central and southwest Florida.
641 AM EDT Tue Aug 5 2025 A cold front will remain stalled to our south with high pressure to our north ridging into the area through much of the week. The front and possible weak low pressure along it could move closer to the area late week. Highs today will be in the 80-85 degree range highly dependent on the moisture with Wednesday morning lows in the lower 70s along the coast with one more day of upper 60s well inland. No major changes for the short term period as high pressure from the north will sit to our west with ridging in the low/mid levels.
It will be dry with afternoon temperatures about 3-5 degrees warmer than yesterday for the interior.
717 AM EDT Tue Aug 5 2025 High pressure will build into the area through midweek. An area of weak low pressure and/or inverted trough will move along the Southeast coast late this week and into the weekend. Ridging continues to our north, resulting in weak NE flow early this morning. To our south, a weak area of low pressure is trying to develop of the SC/GA/FL coast. Today, high pressure will continue to ridge in from the north, keeping NE flow and drier airmass in place. Temps will be a few degrees warmer with highs in the low/mid 80s, with dewpoints still fairly comfortable (60s to low 70s) for this time of year. ridging to our north begins to weaken Tuesday night, and outside of an isolated shower, conditions should remain dry for most.
621 AM CDT Tue Aug 5 2025 (Today through Wednesday) Upper trough continues across the middle and lower Mississippi River Valley, with upper ridging over New Mexico. At the surface, weak low pressure was noted over Georgia with a stationary boundary just south of Interstate 10. East of the trough axis, the airmass remains rather moist, with precipitable water value of 2. Satellite indicates there is easterly flow at low levels producing an area of convergence ahead of the trough axis.
It will be dry with afternoon temperatures about 3-5 degrees warmer than yesterday for the interior. Ceilings are expected to remain VFR, however the higher terrain could end up partly obscured towards the end of the TAF period.
547 AM EDT Tue Aug 5 2025 A large area of high pressure will continue to dominate the Great Lakes and New England through the rest of the week. An old decaying backdoor cold front will drift south across the area today. The best chance for a few showers will be from near Buffalo to the western Finger Lakes, and across the higher terrain east of Lake Ontario.
The highest confidence in thunderstorm activity is near the Tri-State and south of I-70, though cannot rule out a stray storm for central Ohio. Morning cloud cover is helping keep temperatures on the cooler side this morning for areas along and west of the I-75 corridor. However, daytime highs area wide should still reach the low 80s area wide. The axis of the severely weakened upper low should be located in eastern CWA by Wednesday evening. Mid and upper level ridge will build into the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes region through the period. The cu may develop into a stratus deck in the lower mvfr range overnight.
For today, a large expansive ridge will be over the southern United States while a weak trough will be situated across the western United States. The proximity of the ridge and trough will bring breezy to locally windy conditions to portions of central Nevada today. Look for continued dry conditions for the upcoming week as models depict the upper ridge wobbling around the New Mexico area while the trough axis slowly moves east.
High pressure will dominate the region through the forecast period, resulting in hot daytime highs and mostly dry conditions. A strong ridge remains centered over New Mexico, resulting in a dry southwesterly flow across much of the state.
pdf Quasi-stationary "cold" front will continue to linger between the FL/GA region and I-10 corridor this afternoon and evening while one weak high pressure continues situated over central FL extending into the western Gulf off of the SW FL coast, as another high pressure center is about 270 miles east of east central FL.
614 AM CDT Tue Aug 5 2025 - Warmer temperatures return mid to late week.
649 AM EDT Tue Aug 5 2025 High pressure builds down over the region from Quebec through Wednesday night.
1000 AM EDT Tue Aug 5 2025 A large area of high pressure will continue to dominate the Great Lakes and New England through the rest of the week. An old decaying backdoor cold front will drift south across the area today. The best chance for a few showers will be from near Buffalo to the western Finger Lakes, and across the higher terrain east of Lake Ontario.
653 AM EDT Tue Aug 5 2025 An upper trough will very slowly meander eastward as it shows a significant weakening trend through Wednesday. H5 trough along the MS River will move just slightly further east during the day and experience a notable weakening. The approaching upper trough, weak surface boundary, and elevated moisture in the lower levels will combine to bring an increased threat for thunderstorm activity this afternoon. Highs will be in the lower 80s with a continued relatively dry airmass and pleasant humidity. The axis of the severely weakened upper low should be located in eastern CWA by Wednesday evening. Mid and upper level ridge will build into the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes region through the period. The cu may develop into a stratus deck in the lower mvfr range overnight.
411 AM CDT Tue Aug 5 2025 - Warmer temperatures return mid to late week.
The weak upper level trough that has been over the region the last couple of days continues to edge eastward today, bringing central IL into a region less supported by weak lift, but still enough instability and no substantial subsidence has allowed isolated showers to to begin developing early this afternoon in east central and southeast IL where the most supportive instability nearing 1500 J/kg is in process of developing. For Wednesday, upper level ridging building out of the southern Plains into central IL will provide a substantial subsidence inversion over central IL, keeping any precipitation from forming, although plenty of diurnal cumulus look to build up below the inversion during the afternoon.
(Today and tonight) The upper level ridge centered across the Desert Southwest will nudge a bit to the east on Tuesday, ending rain chances across the region. Overnight lows will be in the low to mid 70s. Upper ridging centered over New Mexico will expand slightly eastward.
There is some moisture available that is seen with the cumulus field that has developed, however for thunderstorms to develop they'd need to overcome the warmer air aloft.
Updated at 1110 AM CDT Tue Aug 5 2025 - After several cooler than normal days, temperatures will climb to normal levels late this week. A broad, weak trough over the region was keeping our temperatures several degrees cooler than normal with more clouds than usual and generally low coverage of diurnal showers. Our forecast will stay much the same for tonight into Wednesday under the weak, sluggish trough. (Wednesday Night through next Tuesday) Late week through the weekend, the trough will lift away as a strong ridge centered over the southwest states expands eastward. The ridge will remain centered well to our west, but its increasing influence will help raise temperatures.
This is due to a 596 dam upper-level ridge that has positioned itself over far west Texas and southern New Mexico. This ridge will build slightly northeastward and strengthen through tomorrow. Rain chances will be next to nothing as the strengthening ridge should suppress convection across west central Texas. Upper ridging centered over New Mexico will expand slightly eastward.
Ridging continues to build along the USA/Mexico border.
As of 1141 AM Tuesday: The synoptic pattern remains relatively unchanged through tomorrow with a stout upper ridge centered over the Desert Southwest and a Bermuda ridge just off the East Coast. Farther north, a belt of westerlies remains draped across the northern CONUS with broad troughing extending down the Appalachians between the two previously mentioned ridges. Heading into tonight, the 12z suite of CAMs is in decent agreement that a weak impulse swinging through the base of the broad trough should provide sufficient forcing and renewed isentropic ascent atop the wedge to initiate another batch of showers, especially along the I-85 corridor. Temperatures will also warm tomorrow in the absence of widespread showers during peak heating, but will remain well below normal in the low to mid 70s.
Updated at 1027 AM CDT Tue Aug 5 2025 - A slight warming trend will begin on Wednesday with afternoon highs in the low to mid 90s through the end of the week.
Expansive upper ridging remains centered to our west but in close enough proximity to keep precipitation chances suppressed. Dry conditions will continue into tonight with lows dropping into the low 70s in most spots.
Isolated terrain driven showers may deliver brief downpours near mountain ridges over the next few days, but much of the area will continue to see dry weather. The dry and hazy conditions will continue to persist across the region for next few days as high pressure remains overhead. Like last night, some fog development may be possible in some of the more favored valley locations, especially with the high overhead and light to calm winds expected. Limited instability and lack of any significant forcing will hinder most shower development, with the higher terrain likely driving any showers and most locations remaining dry otherwise.
A large area of high pressure will remain locked over the Atlantic the next few days, keeping conditions in southeast Ohio, northeast Kentucky, and the northern West Virginia lowlands mostly dry. However, weak energy rotating around the periphery of this high will act as the primary trigger for daily showers and thunderstorms in the West Virginia mountains southwest Virginia. High temperatures are expected to reach the 70s across the mountains, with the lowlands warming into the lower 80s.
354 PM EDT Tue Aug 5 2025 High pressure will begin to weaken tomorrow and the pattern will become more unsettled. An area of weak low pressure will move along the Southeast coast late this week and into this weekend, which will bring multiple rounds of moderate to heavy rainfall to ENC. Sandwiched between high pressure to our north and low pressure trying to develop to our south, weak northeasterly flow has kept temps in the low- to mid-80s with broken to overcast skies.
Sheppard Issued 345 AM CDT Tue Aug 5 2025 Today and Tonight: Quiet weather will persist today as high pressure lingers across the Great Lakes region.
A strong upper-level ridge remains anchored to our west. This ridge will be the dominant synoptic feature and will gradually expand eastward, bringing an increase in subsidence, resulting in drier and hotter conditions.
1106 AM MDT Tue Aug 5 2025 - Slim chance for a storm across NW Kansas this afternoon; otherwise warmer temperatures begins to move in with highs in the low to mid 90s.
The 12Z sounding from our office this morning shows a relatively moist environment, ample instability (ML CAPE of approximately 2400 J/kg), and a veering wind profile through the lower and mid levels.
The main culprit for the next several days is a sub-tropical ridge located just to our west in New Mexico/El Paso TX area as noted on the 500mb heights analysis. Our area will be just on the southeast side of this ridge. with lows in the low to mid 70s.
1243 PM CDT Tue Aug 5 2025 (Today through Wednesday) Upper trough continues across the middle and lower Mississippi River Valley, with upper ridging over New Mexico. At the surface, weak low pressure was noted over Georgia with a stationary boundary just south of Interstate 10. East of the trough axis, the airmass remains rather moist, with precipitable water value of 2. Satellite indicates there is easterly flow at low levels producing an area of convergence ahead of the trough axis.
Mid-level high pressure continues to build over the desert southwest for the week. Expect Wednesday to be warmer with highs in the mid to upper 80s and lower 90s. High pressure continues to push in, and the tighter pressure gradient causes winds to start picking up by mid-week.
Mid-level ridging will remain in place over west Texas into the Desert Southwest through the forecast period.
Jaja A mid-level ridge currently centered over southern New Mexico will expand into the central CONUS through the middle of this week. We'll see the influence of the subsequent height rises as early as Wednesday in the form of dry conditions and warmer temperatures.
1236 PM CDT Tue Aug 5 2025 Updated at 1235 PM CDT Tue Aug 5 2025 - A slight warming trend will begin on Wednesday with afternoon highs in the low to mid 90s through the end of the week.
231 PM EDT Tue Aug 5 2025 We have reached the coolest portion of the week after a weak cold front has pushed into the area, but a return to hot temperatures is looking more likely by the weekend.
Daytime high temperatures rise into the low/mid 80s.
Going forward, latest model and ensemble analysis shows strong high pressure centered over NM through the weekend.
WV imagery indicates ridging aloft nudging eastward across the high plains of eastern Colorado. Near the surface, a lee side trough of low pressure remains anchored in eastern Colorado. Drier/hotter conditions are forecast early in the period as the SREF indicates an upper level ridge further amplifying northeastward across the high plains of eastern Colorado/western Kansas. Despite prevailing southerlies helping support a deep moisture pool across the area, providing ample instability, stronger ridging aloft and a model soundings suggesting fairly stout capping will likely hinder storm development this afternoon/evening for the most part. An ongoing warming trend continues today as prevailing southerlies pull warmer air into the area, pushing H85 temperatures up near 25C in central Kansas to a little above 30C closer to the Colorado line.
1240 PM CDT Tue Aug 5 2025 - Warmer temperatures return mid to late week.
233 PM EDT Tue Aug 5 2025 High pressure builds across the region through Wednesday night.
No big changes to Wednesday as the main focus moves eastward, trending back to more normal PoPs, while temperatures remain a few degrees below normal with the added cloud coverage, 16 Previous short-term discussion: (Today through Wednesday) By this afternoon, highs look to be a bit warmer than yesterday but still well below normal given a persistent low cloud deck associated with the wedge. Will maintain the current watch given this potential even though the probabilities are in the low to medium range. The trough axis moves eastward and weakens on Wednesday, with highest rain chances once again in the southeast counties. The low cloud deck should erode from west to east by afternoon as the wedge weakens some, but the easterly winds will still result in below normal high temperatures.
The upper-level ridge continues to move farther westward into the central Gulf, and the southwesterly flow continues to push humid air over Florida today with a PWAT of 1.
1220 PM CDT Tue Aug 5 2025 Updated at 1216 PM CDT Tue Aug 5 2025 - After several cooler than normal days, temperatures will climb to normal levels late this week. A broad, weak trough over the region was keeping our temperatures several degrees cooler than normal with more clouds than usual and generally low coverage of diurnal showers. Our forecast will stay much the same for tonight into Wednesday under the weak, sluggish trough. (Wednesday Night through next Tuesday) Late week through the weekend, the trough will lift away as a strong ridge centered over the southwest states expands eastward. The ridge will remain centered well to our west, but its increasing influence will help raise temperatures.
High pressure will dominate the region through the forecast period, resulting in hot daytime highs and mostly dry conditions. Slight chances for high-based showers/storms each day, mainly along the higher terrain. High pressure is currently situated above New Mexico, allowing a slightly better flow of moisture into Northern AZ.
KEY MESSAGES: - Dry and seasonable weather continues under high pressure.
1018 PM EDT Tue Aug 5 2025 We have reached the coolest portion of the week after a weak cold front has pushed into the area, but a return to hot temperatures is looking more likely by the weekend.
731 PM EDT Tue Aug 5 2025 High pressure builds across the region through Wednesday night.
620 PM CDT Tue Aug 5 2025 Updated at 618 PM CDT Tue Aug 5 2025 - A slight warming trend will begin on Wednesday with afternoon highs in the low to mid 90s through the end of the week.
Higher moisture availability is expected to support more storm coverage, and the highest rain chances should begin inland and push towards the coast later in the afternoon/evening. The upper-level ridge continues to move farther westward into the central Gulf, and the southwesterly flow continues to push humid air over Florida today with a PWAT of 1.
621 PM CDT Tue Aug 5 2025 Mid-level ridging will remain in place over west Texas into the Desert Southwest through the forecast period.
On Wednesday, the upper level trough axis shifts slightly east as a ridge amplifies to our west. This will hold temperatures below normal for this time of year with highs in the low to mid 80s east of I-65 and upper 80s west of I-65.
618 PM CDT Tue Aug 5 2025 Updated at 615 PM CDT Tue Aug 5 2025 - After several cooler than normal days, temperatures will climb to normal levels late this week. A broad, weak trough over the region was keeping our temperatures several degrees cooler than normal with more clouds than usual and generally low coverage of diurnal showers. Our forecast will stay much the same for tonight into Wednesday under the weak, sluggish trough. (Wednesday Night through next Tuesday) Late week through the weekend, the trough will lift away as a strong ridge centered over the southwest states expands eastward. The ridge will remain centered well to our west, but its increasing influence will help raise temperatures.
Heading into tonight, the latest suite of CAMs remains in decent agreement that a weak impulse swinging through the base of the broad upper trof should provide sufficient forcing and renewed isentropic ascent atop the wedge to initiate another batch of showers, especially along the I-85 corridor. Tempera- tures will also warm tomorrow in the absence of widespread showers during peak heating, but will remain well below normal in the low to mid 70s.
726 PM EDT Tue Aug 5 2025 High pressure builds across the region through Wednesday night.
A broad area of high pressure across the Gulf and Florida Peninsula, will consolidate overnight, allowing winds to back to the northeast to east while promoting gentle breezes.