Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
245 PM EDT Fri Jul 12 2024 (This afternoon through Saturday) On the western periphery of the Bermuda High, a low pressure centered near the South Atlantic coast is bringing tropical moisture into far eastern Georgia. Apart from the higher elevations of far northeast Georgia, high temperatures will be in the mid 90s in north Georgia and upper 90s in central Georgia this afternoon. Highs will be a couple of degrees warmer across the area on Saturday, and could approach 100 in portions of central Georgia in the peak heating hours.
So max temps in the Treasure Valley should be the same or a degree cooler than yesterday.
PoPs were raised as well, however still quite low, with the highest values in Carter and Johnson counties. Highs will generally range from the low to mid 90s across the area, which is around 5 degrees above normal.
Highs top out in the upper 90s for NE OK and in the lower-mid 90s for SE OK/ NW AR under mostly clear skies (aside from any shower/storm activity). A cluster of strong to severe thunderstorms has been persistent overnight near the nose of the low level jet/mid level trough axis intersection across southeast Kansas and into southwest Missouri. The warm up will continue today as the expanding western CONUS ridge hedges further east.
Cluster analyses from the 12Z runs of the various models reveal that roughly 70% percent of the members going into the NBM show a tropical upper tropospheric trough, or TUTT, moving northwestward underneath the subtropical ridge toward the Big Bend/lower Trans Pecos Saturday afternoon. High temperatures should be a shade (ha!) cooler than today's highs, ranging from the mid 80s at higher elevations to near 100 at Rio Grande Village. Overnight lows will range from the mid 50s at higher elevations of the Guadalupes to the lower 70s along the Rio Grande.
16z temperatures are already in the lower 90s across portions of N LA and SW AR and those temperatures will only go up from here. Pops today will mainly be confined areas near and south of the I-20 Corridor given the higher moisture content across these areas. 13 (Friday through Saturday) Typical mid-July weather is expected to continue into this weekend as we remain flanked by the upper-level ridge out west across the Four Corners Region and another ridge extending over much of the SE CONUS. Likewise, overnight temperatures will also trend warmer as well with mostly lower to mid 70s areawide.
At the same time, a 594dam ridge to our south will exit our forecast area and continue to track eastward towards Alabama. Nighttime temperatures will drop in the low 70s across the area.
(This evening through Saturday night) Upper ridging was centered over Utah this afternoon, with a weaker ridge over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. In between, a trough extended from Lake Huron southwestward to Missouri and then into west Texas. We've issued a Heat Advisory for Saturday afternoon for the area, with the exception of the lower portions of the Louisiana coastal parishes.
An upper level trough axis remains overhead, with the resulting lift allowing for a couple of storms in northwest AR this afternoon. Low temperatures will be in the low to mid 70s. (Tonight through Friday) A strong mid level ridge currently centered in southern Nevada will shift eastward and expand into the area.
127 PM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024 (Today through Saturday) Showers are beginning to develop this morning and will expect additional development as we head through the morning hours as a tropical wave passes south of the region and we remain under an area of troughing between high pressure centers northwest and east of South Texas. Have gone a bit above these, but below the NBM that indicates temps in the lower to mid 90s.
102 PM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024 (Today and tonight) Today's weather will be similar to the past few days, with highs ranging from the lower 90s to around 100 degrees. Our southern counties could see increased cloud cover this afternoon as an inverted trough starts to set up to our southwest and moisture increases through the column. This cloud cover will help keep this area a few degrees cooler compared to areas further north.
1121 AM MDT Fri Jul 12 2024 - Near-record daytime temperatures are expected today and tomorrow especially in the lower valleys. The forecast remains on track for near-record daytime temperatures today and tomorrow as a high pressure center continues to move in overhead. As a result, a Heat Advisory is in effect for the lower valleys of eastern Utah and the Grand Valley in western Colorado beginning this morning at 10 AM. This morning's water vapor satellite imagery continues to show a seasonably dry airmass in place across the forecast area, but you can also see moisture beginning to wrap itself around the high pressure system into parts of western and central Utah.
(Rest of today through Saturday) An upper level low off the mid-Atlantic coast will be absorbed into the larger scale upper level flow through Saturday. At the mid and lower levels, high pressure extending over Florida from the Atlantic continues to reign. With the unsettled pattern brought by the upper level low slowly transitioning back to the more diurnal sea breeze pattern for Saturday afternoon.
Saturday looks like the 500 mb trough and the weak sfc inverted trough associated with it, will be moving out of the region late Saturday. Through the day, the 500mb trough moves out of the region, taking the 2. Temperatures will be a bit warmer, especially in the southern Coastal Bend, where the Heat Index should approach 110F, and has a 40% chance of verifying. Saturday night should be a quiet night as high pressure builds into the region and winds remain weak to moderate onshore through the night.
1235 PM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024 (Today through Saturday afternoon) Very little changes today as upper ridging remains just to our northwest with a weakness over south Texas. A weakness in the upper ridge will move north from Mexico and into southern portions of the area. Increased moisture and lower heights will lead to slightly cooler temperatures with highs about 3-5 degrees lower than what we will see today.
Saturday looks fairly similar to today with hot temperatures and slight chances for afternoon showers and storms, though with upper ridging build a bit further overhead chances for this development are somewhat less than today (~10%).
In the lower desert regions south of the Rim would not be surprised to see wind gusts in excess of 50 mph. Strong high pressure is currently over southern UT and northern AZ early this morning. This slight shift in position from where the high was yesterday should allow for better moisture advection leading to increased chances for showers and thunderstorms across the region today.
1216 PM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024 (Today and tonight) The upper high will continue to dominate over the southwestern US today and tonight. The center of the upper high will push slightly eastward through the afternoon and overnight hours from being centered over Nevada to being situated over the Four Corners. The increase in heights should help hinder convection, though high res models do show some highly isolated showers and thunderstorms developing over the far southern Rolling Plains and the far souther South Plains during the late afternoon and early evening along weak surface convergence and possibly very subtle weakness in the upper high.
(Today and tonight) Today's weather will be similar to the past few days, with highs ranging from the lower 90s to around 100 degrees. Our southern counties could see increased cloud cover this afternoon as an inverted trough starts to set up to our southwest and moisture increases through the column. This cloud cover will help keep this area a few degrees cooler compared to areas further north. (Saturday night through next Friday) The upper ridge will remain centered over the Desert Southwest through the extened period, with a weakness aloft persisting over our area through the period.
The 15Z surface analysis continues to show high pressure situated over much of the eastern CONUS. In eastern Kentucky, high pressure remains dominate with mostly sunny skies. Aloft, a trough continues to be situated over the Great Lakes. The CWA is presently situated at the base of the trough as it continues to pivot northeastward out of the area. This trough is helping trigger the shower activity across the area today but as the trough exits and daytime heating wanes, those showers will cease to exist.
The highest PoPs will be confined mainly along the coast and near the Northern Ranchlands tomorrow. Partly cloudy skies and lingering precipitation chances tomorrow will result in high temperatures in the low to mid 90s, near normal temperatures for mid July.
(This evening through Saturday) Broad high pressure persists today and tomorrow across Central AL with a dry air mass in place for much of the area. High temperatures today will be met in the next few hours ranging from the low to mid 90s. A few of our warmer locations could get close or hit 100 degrees; however heat indices will be kept in check by the dry air.
(This evening through Saturday) Rather quiet and dry conditions are expected to unfold across the South Plains region through the short term period as upper level ridging and the associated high pressure continue to dominate over the Four Corners region.
Overall, high pressure slowly builds east from the Four Corners.
Zonal (westerly) flow will remain over the Northern Rockies as a broad ridge of high pressure encompasses the western United States.
The best coverage should remain to our south where the highest moisture is located, but any storm that moves into our southern zones may still produce brief heavy rain, occasional lightning, and gusty winds.
247 PM EDT Fri Jul 12 2024 An area of high pressure will build across the region today and this weekend supporting mostly dry and fair weather. Warm and moderately humid weather will return this weekend with highs ranging in the mid 80s to the low 90s. A mid level trough is centered over the Great Lakes region this afternoon. Showers and a few thunderstorms have developed ahead of the mid-level trough over northern Michigan and southern Ontario this afternoon. The mid level trough will move north of the region tonight while high pressure settles across the region. A westerly flow aloft will drive slightly drier and cooler air into the region Saturday.
Temperatures are currently running in the 80s to lower 90s with the cloud cover and rainfall and highs later today should remain in the low 90s for most locations. Besides the low rain chances tonight, some partly to mostly cloudy skies can be expected with lows in the lower to middle 70s.
+++ WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Upper ridge will remain in place over the western half of the CONUS for the next several days. The heat advisory has reduced to the southern two-thirds of the CWA for today as a weakened cold front moves through.
High pressure in the mid-levels of the atmosphere was centered over southern Utah midday, continuing to make slow progress eastward. The high will then settle in over Colorado and the Four Corners area through the weekend.
Any convection this evening will likely quickly fade after sunset with fair skies and typical low temps in the lower/middle 70s inland and upper 70s/near 80 along the Atlantic Coast.
729 PM EDT Fri Jul 12 2024 A disturbance triggering scattered showers and thunderstorms will move northeast tonight, leaving weak high pressure and dry weather for Saturday.
/NEW/ /Rest of the Evening through Saturday/ Another July afternoon is coming to an end across North and Central Texas as temperatures fall overnight into the low to mid 70s.
605 PM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024 (Tonight) No surprise in tonight's forecast, expect much of the same as last night, as high pressure promotes subsidence across the area. Most areas should be in the low 70s with dewpoints in the mid-60s.
(Tonight through Friday) A strong mid level ridge currently centered in southern Nevada will shift eastward and expand into the area.
The high risk of grass fires in the valley continues, with fire behavior enhanced even with low wind speeds this weekend. Further development along the high Sierra from north to south can occur tonight.
314 PM MDT Fri Jul 12 2024 - Near-record daytime temperatures are expected today and Saturday especially in the lower valleys. High pressure continues to sit to our west, directing a northerly flow across the area. This is allowing the heat dome to persist, with warm air advection to continue through the weekend as the high pressure shifts directly overhead by Saturday.
Despite a through moving through tonight, tomorrow is looking warmer as there will be less clouds around and warmer air begins to advect in aloft.
Look for lows tonight again a little milder than last night, but still generally in the upper 60s to the lower 70s as our airmass slowly modifies. 08 Previous short-term discussion: (This evening through Saturday) Broad high pressure persists today and tomorrow across Central AL with a dry air mass in place for much of the area. High temperatures today will be met in the next few hours ranging from the low to mid 90s. A few of our warmer locations could get close or hit 100 degrees; however heat indices will be kept in check by the dry air.
730 PM EDT Fri Jul 12 2024 An area of high pressure will build across the region through this weekend supporting mostly dry and fair weather. Warm and moderately humid weather is expected this weekend with highs ranging in the mid 80s to the low 90s. A mid level trough is centered over the Great Lakes region early this evening as a deep southwest flow continues across the region. Showers and a few thunderstorms ahead of the mid-level trough over southern Ontario will stay outside the region. The mid level trough will move north of the region tonight while high pressure settles across the region. A westerly flow aloft will drive slightly drier and cooler air into the region Saturday.
Latest radar, satellite and model data is trending a touch east with the rain and clouds with the coastal trough overnight into Saturday. The HRRR and 3km NAM keep this general theme going all night, with the highest PoPs now in the forecast right along our CWA border for locations such as Hazleton--Daleville and Milford PA. Despite a through moving through tonight, tomorrow is looking warmer as there will be less clouds around and warmer air begins to advect in aloft.
633 PM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024 (This evening through Saturday) Rather quiet and dry conditions are expected to unfold across the South Plains region through the short term period as upper level ridging and the associated high pressure continue to dominate over the Four Corners region.
1035 PM EDT Fri Jul 12 2024 An area of high pressure will build across the region through this weekend supporting mostly dry and fair weather. Warm and moderately humid weather is expected this weekend with highs ranging in the mid 80s to the low 90s. A mid level trough is centered over the Great Lakes region late this evening as a deep southwest flow continues across the region. The mid level trough will move north of the region overnight while high pressure settles across the region. A westerly flow aloft will drive slightly drier and cooler air into the region Saturday.
956 PM EDT Fri Jul 12 2024 A disturbance triggering scattered showers and thunderstorms will move northeast tonight, leaving weak high pressure and dry weather for Saturday.
Tonight through next Friday: The ridge will remain across the region bringing above average temperatures for the next 7+ days.
This persistent shear axis should result in some elevated cloud cover across at least the southeast half of our region overnight which should tend to hold temperatures up slightly so did stay on the warmer side of MOS guidance concerning overnight low temperatures tonight. The higher moisture content does mean higher dewpoints, which means higher humidity and you guessed it, higher Heat Indices. Other than rain cooled areas Sat Night, overnight low temperatures should be held up by mid level cloud cover so again, stayed on the higher side of MOS guidance concerning overnight low temperatures Sat Night.
(This afternoon through Saturday) On the western periphery of the Bermuda High, a low pressure centered near the South Atlantic coast is bringing tropical moisture into far eastern Georgia. Apart from the higher elevations of far northeast Georgia, high temperatures will be in the mid 90s in north Georgia and upper 90s in central Georgia this afternoon. Highs will be a couple of degrees warmer across the area on Saturday, and could approach 100 in portions of central Georgia in the peak heating hours.
The high temperature in Boise was 105 degrees and it was the 4th day in a row reaching 105 or higher.
The overnight hours should remain dry over South Florida with light winds due to high pressure building into the Florida Peninsula from the Western Atlantic waters. (Rest of today through Saturday) An upper level low off the mid-Atlantic coast will be absorbed into the larger scale upper level flow through Saturday. At the mid and lower levels, high pressure extending over Florida from the Atlantic continues to reign. With the unsettled pattern brought by the upper level low slowly transitioning back to the more diurnal sea breeze pattern for Saturday afternoon.
Tomorrows temperatures are expected to range into the high 90's while the dewpoints stay in the low 70's to high 60's.
(Tonight) Troughing that extended from the eastern Great Lakes was weakening, as strong upper ridging over the NW Atlantic basin builds westward. This upper ridging was joining with another one already over the 4-Corners. Despite the upper ridging, earlier strong heating resulted in high temperatures that climbed into the mid/upper 90s. The temperatures should fall mainly into the lower 70s by daybreak Saturday.
644 PM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024 (This evening through Saturday night) Upper ridging was centered over Utah this afternoon, with a weaker ridge over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. In between, a trough extended from Lake Huron southwestward to Missouri and then into west Texas. We've issued a Heat Advisory for Saturday afternoon for the area, with the exception of the lower portions of the Louisiana coastal parishes.
(This evening through Saturday) Several of the warmer inland areas are well on their way to triple digit heat this afternoon. As the ridge finally moves east on Saturday, significant relief is in store, and most guidance is trending a few degrees cooler over the last several model runs. Overall the Inland temperatures on Saturday will be roughly 10 degrees cooler than the last couple days, which will essentially end this 11-12 day heat wave. While the ridge weakening is good news for heat impacts, the new pattern may support some elevated convection and there is a slight chance for dry lightning this weekend.
707 PM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024 (This evening through Saturday) Broad high pressure persists today and tomorrow across Central AL with a dry air mass in place for much of the area. High temperatures today will be met in the next few hours ranging from the low to mid 90s. A few of our warmer locations could get close or hit 100 degrees; however heat indices will be kept in check by the dry air.
Otherwise, elevated cloud cover will persist tonight in VC of a weak inverted mid-level trough aloft extending from SE and Deep E TX into Wrn LA. These cigs will help slow the radiational cooling in place, with temps expected to fall to near if not slightly warmer than what was observed this morning.
711 PM EDT Fri Jul 12 2024 (Rest of today through Saturday) An upper level low off the mid-Atlantic coast will be absorbed into the larger scale upper level flow through Saturday. At the mid and lower levels, high pressure extending over Florida from the Atlantic continues to reign. With the unsettled pattern brought by the upper level low slowly transitioning back to the more diurnal sea breeze pattern for Saturday afternoon.
Coverage will likely be lower tomorrow as upper ridging builds. (Now through Saturday) A broad upper level ridge over the western Atlantic will continue to build westward through Saturday.
529 PM MDT Fri Jul 12 2024 - Near-record daytime temperatures are expected today and Saturday especially in the lower valleys. High pressure continues to sit to our west, directing a northerly flow across the area. This is allowing the heat dome to persist, with warm air advection to continue through the weekend as the high pressure shifts directly overhead by Saturday.
(Today through Sunday) We remain under the influence of mid and upper level troughing today which will keep rain chances in our forecast. This troughing is locked in between strong high pressure over the Rockies and high pressure over the Southeast US. Within this troughing, a band of vorticity will lift north through the area today and will be the focus for convection. Once this gets out of here, the southeast US ridge will build into Texas and bring quieter weather for the second half of the weekend.
The presence of a slow-moving easterly wave aloft, a couple dry layers in the low levels, and steep low level lapse rates will aid in deep convection and potential for strong downbursts (40-60 mph), mainly along and south of line from Gainesville to St Augustine.
A few degrees warmer today. Temps in the low to upper 90s. High temps will be a few degrees warmer today, around 5 to 8 degrees above normal with temps in the lower to upper 90s.
1206 AM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024 (This evening through Sunday) The main story regarding the short-term forecast period of the weekend will be increasing temperatures overall with low, but not nil chances for isolated showers and thunderstorms to develop along the periphery of the high pressure across northern Arkansas, then across southern Arkansas into Saturday as the CWA is between two separate boundaries. In the upper lvls, the state remains fixated between a stout area of ridging over the Four Corners region of the CONUS and a trof axis moving away from the state, but aiding in the development of convection around the edge of the ridge positioned in far northern Arkansas. At the sfc, a stout area of high pressure will meander across the state and eventually into the Mid-South region of the CONUS into Saturday and Sunday.
The mid-summer and near-record heat will continue through this weekend as an amplified ridge remains firmly in place over the Northern Rockies. Several distant wildfires throughout the Rockies and West Coast have slowly been adding smoke to the atmosphere, and given the stable and stagnant ridging pattern, smoke is likely to thicken over the weekend.
For tomorrow, not a lot of changes are expected with the pattern as models continue to indicate that SE TX will remain in that weakness region of the ridge aloft.
(Today and tonight) Hot weather will continue as the Southern Plains will remain on the eastern periphery of a mid-level ridge and attendant low-level thermal ridge.
155 AM EDT Sat Jul 13 2024 A disturbance triggering scattered showers and thunderstorms will move northeast tonight, leaving weak high pressure and dry weather for Saturday. A wave of low pressure will bring the threat for showers and thunderstorms Saturday night and Sunday.
This morning, hourly temperature and dewpoint trends have sided a few degrees cooler than latest guidance, so have nosed down these grids through early afternoon today.
Water vapor satellite this afternoon shows potent upper level high pressure centered over the Four Corners region, with a west to southwest flow aloft over the PacNW. Model guidance is in good agreement that the west to southwest flow aloft will persist across the PacNW through the weekend as high pressure aloft meanders across the Four Corners area. Ultimately, this pattern will promote warming conditions across the lower elevations again, with widespread moderate to localized major HeatRisk developing through the weekend.
Moisture remains relatively scarce compared to this time last week, as high pressure aloft is dominant.
400 AM EDT Sat Jul 13 2024 A cold front will remain stalled across the region through today with moist southerly flow bringing periods of rain.