Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Highs return to near normal in the lower 80s. Synoptic overview and current conditions: Water vapor imagery and upper level analysis show a blocking pattern across the CONUS with a low over the upper Mississippi valley and high amplitude ridge axis over the Rockies and intermountain west, and another ridge axis along the east coast. High pressure was over the region at the surface with an abundant stratocumulus field across the CWA early this afternoon. The upper trough will shift to the east of the area with rising upper heights and a return to southerly low level flow by late in the weekend.
Low pressure will develop along the Mid- Atlantic coast on Friday.
Highs return to near normal in the lower 80s. If the higher end of instability is realized, a Slight Risk (2 out of 5) may be warranted in future updates. Cooler tonight with lows in the lower 50s.
Low stratus is now filling in across southern MI and should continue to do so through the early morning hours as the trough axis passes over. An elongated closed off mid/upper low will linger across the Midwest and Great Lakes region as southern stream occluded low pressure lifts north across western Lake Erie to Georgian Bay today and tonight. A weak cold front will drop south associated with a Hudson Bay low as broader troughing encompasses the northeast CONUS.
Overnight lows will be in the lower to mid 60s. On Thursday, an upper trough will extend from the Great Lakes southwest across portions of the Midwest. Associated cold front will move south into the Big Country in the afternoon. The higher chances of showers and thunderstorms for a larger part of the area should hold off until the evening. Morning cloud cover will decrease in the afternoon, and expect afternoon highs to range from the lower 80s in the northern Big Country, to the upper 80s and lower 90s in the Concho Valley and our southern counties.
112 AM MDT Thu May 29 2025 KEY MESSAGES: - Cold front to bring breezy winds this afternoon and evening, along with thunderstorms capable of gusty outflow winds.
- Scattered showers and isolated afternoon thunderstorms (mainly over the higher terrain) today.
330 AM EDT Thu May 29 2025 Low pressure will gradually move east of the region with a brief break through Friday.
By tomorrow, the trough and cold front that I've been mentioning the last few days will finally begin to move into the Ohio Valley.
1218 AM CDT Thu May 29 2025 - Cutoff upper low will continue to plague the region with mostly cloudy conditions and persistent chances for light rain showers through Thursday. - Upper low moves out Friday, resulting in clearing clouds and much warmer temperatures through the weekend.
Large trough over the eastern CONUS Friday night through the weekend will keep temperatures around/below normal.
The highest rain chances will be over the interior and into southwest Florida. On Friday, a stronger trough digging into the southeastern US will pull a decaying cold front into Florida by Friday night, which will allow moisture to increase ahead of the front and bring higher rain chances near the coast and over the Gulf.
A frontal system will then move through the area Thursday morning, bringing cooler temperatures and a chance of showers. Warmer and drier conditions return Friday, before cooler weather and chances of showers return over the weekend.
(Today through Friday night) Latest 08Z observations shows the main cold front has now reached the far northern areas of the Texas South Plains. North-northeasterly surface flow in the wake of the cold front that moved through earlier this morning, with persistent cloud cover, high temperatures today will be much cooler compared to average. Whether in the vicinity of the front where diurnally driven convection further south may develop and reach as far north as the southern Texas Panhandles and/or mid level perturbation over the CO/NM terrain may have some precipitation reach the western Panhandles, these areas will have the highest chance of precipitation later this afternoon into the evening hours. Southerly winds will return for tomorrow and with mostly clear skies, high temperatures will rebound back into the 70s and some areas reaching the lower 80s.
1118 PM CDT Wed May 28 2025 (This evening through Friday) Latest vis-sat imgry indicated an expansive Cu field over much of AR w/ passing higher Cirrus, once again helping to keep much of the state cooler than fcst, w/ most area readings in the upper 60s to mid 70s fm Nrn AR to Cntrl and Srn AR. Settled and cooler wx wl prevail thru the remainder of the day at most locations, w/ incrsg PoPs noted acrs far Srn AR overnight tonight, mainly as isolated showers.
By Thursday morning, ~1014mb low pressure expected to be situated over Lake Huron before trekking northeast to the Quebec/Ontario border Thursday afternoon. These shower chances expand to near the M-32 corridor this evening before becoming more focused over northeast lower overnight as low pressure gradually meanders from southeast Michigan to eastern Lake Huron. Off and on shower chances continue through much of Thursday as wrap around moisture lingers on the backside of departing low pressure. Pattern Forecast: Positively tilted longwave troughing over the nation's midsection at the start of the period Thursday night is expected to become more neutral as it amplifies and centers over the Great Lakes Friday into the start of the weekend.
Surface anticyclone has slid southeast from the Canadian Prairie Provinces and sits under the closed-low system. The surface anticyclone has prevented a warm frontal boundary from advancing northward, which will greatly limit instability for most of our forecast area. Friday, surface anticyclone slides further southward, and should start to see H5 height rises providing subsidence across the area keeping conditions mostly dry.
244 AM EDT Thu May 29 2025 -Lingering showers continue today as low pressure departs the Great Lakes region today. -Cooler air settles behind a cold front this weekend.
-Temperatures heating up through Friday, highs peaking around 100-106 across the lower deserts on Friday leading to areas of Moderate HeatRisk.
Anomalously steep ridging over southern Canada is extending riding into the far northern tier of the U. With plenty of sunshine, temperatures have been able to reach into the low and even mid 70s across much of the area so far today, though areas nearer to the Superior shoreline are only climbing as high as the upper 50s to lower 60s. Heading into the weekend, some phasing waves close off into a mid/upper level low that spins over Quebec, with ridging building over the Plains and the Great Lakes stuck in between.
A ridge of high pressure is expected to build over the Rockies through tomorrow, then shift into the Plains this weekend. This in combination of high pressure being the dominate feature at the surface will bring mostly clear skies and dry conditions to western Kansas.
341 AM EDT Thu May 29 2025 Low pressure will gradually move east of the region with a brief break through Friday.
Large upper low will continue to bring a few showers and thunderstorms across the southeast through this evening. The better chances for these will be closer to the upper low in South Dakota, although southeastern ND could still see them. Similar weather scenario will be found on Friday, with temperatures slightly warmer and getting into the 80s. Upper level ridge then settles in for the weekend.
The foothills of the Blue Mountains and wind-prone portions of the lower Columbia Basin have lower chances (20-40%). Friday, temperatures will warm again as an upper-level ridge of high pressure builds over the Pacific Northwest.
An upper-level low located over southern Minnesota and an upper-level ridge over Western CONUS has placed Nebraska under the main flow of the jet stream. Temperatures will continue to warm through the week as an upper-level ridge builds over Western CONUS and progresses across the Plains. This weekend will remain dry as the upper-level ridge settles over the region.
High pressure aloft over California will bring warming for Thursday and Friday, with Friday high temperatures as much as 10 to 15 degrees above average for the Inland Empire. An upper level low pressure system off the Baja coast could draw some tropical moisture northward and into the area for the weekend with a chance of showers.
Additional showers and storms are expected to develop this afternoon near and ahead of a weak cold front that will drop south across the area, and an isolated strong or severe storm can not be ruled out. High temperatures today will range from the upper 60s in far northeast Oklahoma to the lower 80s near the Red River.
528 AM MDT Thu May 29 2025 - Warmer temperatures and drier conditions should begin on Thursday as high pressure moves over the region.
503 AM MDT Thu May 29 2025 - Warmer and drier today and Friday with an isolated showers and thunderstorms.
This system exits out and then we will turn the focus onto the cold front that will move through Friday morning. By tomorrow, the trough and cold front that I've been mentioning the last few days will finally begin to move into the Ohio Valley.
640 AM EDT Thu May 29 2025 Low pressure will gradually move east of the region with a brief break through Friday.
This appeared to be associated with the deformation zone of the remnant upper low and some mid-level FGEN. The upper low is expected to shift slowly southeast today into early tonight, with a gradual SE shift in the scattered shower activity. Highs today should range from 65 to 70 south to the lower to middle 70s north.
Water vapor imagery/surface analysis this morning show an area of low pressure centered over the Lower Great Lakes with high pressure strengthening over the Upper Midwest. Tonight, look for increased rain chances from the north as a cold front sinks into the UP. Heading into the weekend, some phasing waves close off into a mid/upper level low that spins over Quebec, with ridging building over the Plains and the Great Lakes stuck in between.
805 AM MDT Thu May 29 2025 - Warmer and drier today and Friday, with isolated showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon.
708 AM EDT Thu May 29 2025 -Lingering showers continue today as low pressure departs the Great Lakes region today. -Cooler air settles behind a cold front this weekend.
- A Pacific cold front will bring scattered showers and thunderstorms Thursday evening with storms capable of producing strong winds, brief downpours, and small hail.
306 AM MDT Thu May 29 2025 - A Pacific cold front will bring scattered showers and thunderstorms Thursday evening with storms capable of producing strong winds, brief downpours, and small hail.
A backdoor cold front on the leading edge of the incoming northern stream wave and mid-upper level jet streaks does bring slightly better chances (20-50%) for isolated to scattered showers/storms by late Friday afternoon into Friday evening.
High temps today are trending noticeably cooler than elected due to the cloud coverage not giving way much. A lull in activity overnight will give to another active day tomorrow, with a late season cold front pushing through the area.
Shower and thunderstorms are expected to come to an end by later tonight with high pressure moving over the state through much of the weekend.
1257 PM MDT Thu May 29 2025 KEY MESSAGES: - For this evening, breezy west winds with cold front passage.
Ongoing diurnal mixing will continue support a slight erosion of the low clouds across Se Mi late this afternoon and evening. Limited large scale ascent through the overnight within the broad mid level trough overhead will warrant a dry forecast. Enhanced mid level short wave ridging developing across cntrl/srn Lower Mi Friday afternoon will maintain a period of dry weather. The latest HRRR forecasts high concentrations of near surface smoke tracking into Se Mi Friday evening, pooling along/ahead of a secondary cold front forecast to move across Se Mi late Fri evening. The cold front will be driven south in the wake of the mid level PV anomaly.
- Smoke from Canadian wildfires arrive following the cold front late Friday evening. Positively tilted mid-upper trough axis continues to gradually drift across the Great Lakes today maintaining a healthy coverage of low cloud across a large portion of the area. Any lingering precip tapers off towards sunset as the trough begins peel away for the eastern Great Lakes. Attendant cold front set to cross west MI Friday evening generating scattered to numerous showers in advance for the afternoon-early evening period. While high pressure originating out of Manitoba is quick to follow ushering in a seasonably cooler and much drier airmass (PW falls below 0.
At the same time, a weak cold front was positioned from southwest Oklahoma into northeast Oklahoma with dewpoints in the 60s ahead of the boundary. As the boundary moves southeast through the CWA, northerly winds combined ongoing cloud cover should keep temps from warming all that much north of Interstate 40 with highs in the low/mid 70s.
334 PM EDT Thu May 29 2025 A low pressure system moves east across the Ohio Valley late tonight towards the Mid Atlantic region by Friday night.
This has been an ongoing pattern lately as high pressure has been the dominating synoptic feature, and there are only so many different ways we can describe this pattern. As the dominating ridge breaks down over the next few days, breezes will slacken further.
At the sfc, a surface center of low pressure will move into northwestern Arkansas by early afternoon with an attendant eastward extending warm front along the Arkansas/Missouri border and attendant cold front extending southwestward back into far eastern Oklahoma. The cold front is progged to sweep from northwest to southeast across the state during the day and isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop along or just ahead of the frontal boundary. A few storms may become strong to severe depending greatly on how unstable the atmosphere becomes today before the cold front sweeps across the state.
(Tonight through Friday night) Key Messages: - Isolated to scattered severe storms late tonight across the southern Edwards Plateau, Hill Country, Rio Grande Plains and portions of the I-35 corridor - Pockets of heavy rainfall could lead to isolated instances of flash flooding A disturbance aloft will kick off scattered thunderstorms in West Texas this afternoon and evening, eventually bringing a complex of thunderstorms towards our area late tonight into Friday as a cold front moves south. The lowest confidence for rain and thunderstorms remains over the coastal plains. It will be cooler in the northern half of the area Friday afternoon with highs mainly in the 80s, though the 90s remain further south.
- Turning warmer Friday through the weekend with a return to the 80s. Weak surface vorticity is also in place and combined with the low level stretching, provides an environment suitable for brief funnel cloud development with showers/thunderstorms this afternoon.
The actual front with a less humid air mass, but only a couple degrees cooler, should move through late tomorrow night.
A frontal system will through the area Thursday morning, bringing cooler temperatures and a chance of showers. Warmer and drier conditions return Friday, before cooler weather and chances of showers return over the weekend.
129 PM EDT Thu May 29 2025 -Lingering showers continue today as low pressure departs the Great Lakes region today. -Cooler air settles behind a cold front this weekend.
The cu should scatter out by 00Z, although the approach of a weak cold front from OK and the Ozarks will result in lowering cu/stratocu cigs near and behind the front late this evening through the overnight hours. A convective complex that will develop late this afternoon over NW TX will shift SE along the Red River Valley across N TX late this evening/overnight, with portions of this convection bridging E along/just behind the front as it enters NE TX/SW AR shortly after 06Z Friday.
Highs return to near normal in the lower 80s. This has kept temps in the lower 60s however areas south of Highway 60, from Branson to West Plains have largely remained rain free and instability has crept up there with current ML CAPE values around 250-500j/kg there. The tornado threat is very low given the weak shear however its not zero as there will be a warm front that could provide enough vorticity, this would be confined to the same areas (south of Highway 60). Low temperatures in the lower to middle 50s are likely by Friday morning.
A cold front will move over the area this afternoon and evening.
At the surface, the Atlantic ridge axis is south of the area with a trough to the north. For tonight into Friday, troughing will deepen across the southeast, with a weak frontal boundary dropping into northern Florida.
This system's cold front will clear our area by tomorrow night.
The long awaited cold front has finally pushed into the CWA. Supercells that form closest to the frontal boundary have the highest probability of producing a tornado with model guidance showing decent helicity values close to the front with effective STP values around 6 later this afternoon.
144 PM EDT Thu May 29 2025 Low pressure will gradually move east of the region with a brief break through Friday.
212 PM EDT Thu May 29 2025 Low pressure will move north of the region today. Behind the low, at least some unsettled weather will persist through the weekend with the chance of some showers each day, along with a continued trend for cooler temperatures, with the coolest readings over the weekend. An occluded front associated with low pressure to the north will continue to move across the forecast area today. An upper level trough will approach the forecast area with an uptick in mid to high level clouds tonight. The forecast area will be ahead of a strengthening upper level trough across the Upper Great Lakes and Mid-West Friday.
1144 AM MDT Thu May 29 2025 - Warmer temperatures and drier conditions should begin on Thursday as high pressure moves over the region.
311 PM CDT Thu May 29 2025 - Warmer temperatures returning this weekend.
(Through tonight ) Surface cold front making steady progress southeast this afternoon and is currently located near I-44. An uptick in coverage of mainly elevated storms is possible late this evening across southeast OK as convection moves ESE off the high plains withing a frontal zone aloft. Behind the surface front, almost chilly conditions by late May standards with temps in the low-mid 60s and a 10-15 mph north wind.
352 PM MDT Thu May 29 2025 - Warmer temperatures and drier conditions will persist through Friday.
High pressure will build into the region tonight into Friday, bringing warmer and drier conditions.
System responsible for earlier showers is now long gone with clear skies in place over much of western Washington this evening, thanks to incoming ridge. High pressure will build into the region tonight into Friday, bringing warmer and drier conditions.
Warmer high temperatures are in the forecast for today with Moderate HeatRisk in the Valley.
736 PM EDT Thu May 29 2025 Low pressure tracking across West Virginia will bring showers and possibly a thunderstorm Friday, especially from Pittsburgh southward.
603 PM CDT Thu May 29 2025 (Tonight through Friday night) Key Messages: - Isolated to scattered severe storms late tonight across the southern Edwards Plateau, Hill Country, Rio Grande Plains and portions of the I-35 corridor - Pockets of heavy rainfall could lead to isolated instances of flash flooding A disturbance aloft will kick off scattered thunderstorms in West Texas this afternoon and evening, eventually bringing a complex of thunderstorms towards our area late tonight into Friday as a cold front moves south. The lowest confidence for rain and thunderstorms remains over the coastal plains. It will be cooler in the northern half of the area Friday afternoon with highs mainly in the 80s, though the 90s remain further south.
647 PM CDT Thu May 29 2025 (Tonight through Friday night) Conditions are likely to remain dry tonight into Friday morning across deep south Texas as weak upper level ridging and a mid-level high pressure move over the region throughout tonight, enhancing subsidence aloft. Low temperatures tonight should fall to the low to mid 70s across the northern ranchlands and Rio Grande Plains as well as mid to upper 70s across the RGV and the beaches.
With cold front remaining well to the northwest of the area at present, no indications that we'll see any significant redevelopment prior to perhaps late morning Friday. The actual front with a less humid air mass, but only a couple degrees cooler, should move through late tomorrow night.
Low temperatures should cool into the low/mid 60s with light southerly winds. A cold front located from the MO/AR Ozarks to far NE Texas will continue progressing eastward. Despite a strong late May sun, high temperatures Friday will only rise into the low/mid 70s.
As a result, the ridge axis will draw closer to the Keys region resulting in east to southeasterly breezes trending downwards. Expect warm and humid conditions with lows in the lower to mid 80s and dew points remaining in the mid 70s. Despite the previously mentioned troughing, deep layered ridging will remain at play across our area. The surface through lower level ridge will remain overhead, while the flow becomes nebulous at 500 mb. The ridging is helping to keep moisture limited. A narrow and weakening western flank of the Atlantic ridge will remain pinned across South Florida and the Keys overnight.
An upper trough exiting the Upper Midwest will pass generally over the Ohio River Valley region on Friday. At the surface, a low pressure area will deepen across Kentucky by late tonight, and then lift east-northeast as we head into the weekend. This system looks to be strong enough for one last round of scattered showers and thunderstorms to occur Friday afternoon into the early evening hours as a cold front sweeps through the region. Low temperatures Friday night should range from 58 to 63 degrees inland, and from 64 to 69 degrees along the coast in the wake of the cold front.
945 PM EDT Thu May 29 2025 Low pressure tracking across West Virginia will bring showers and possibly a thunderstorm Friday, especially from Pittsburgh southward.
A Pacific cold front passed through our CWA this afternoon and will exit east late this evening. Tonight and Friday morning will be slightly cooler behind the cold front, but Friday will end up as warm as today as the main upper ridge quickly rebuilds over the Great Basin.
550 PM CDT Thu May 29 2025 - Warmer temperatures returning this weekend.
Updated at 731 PM CDT THU MAY 29 2025 - Fog with visibilities below one mile is expected to develop tonight, with the lowest visibilities in East Alabama. Guidance is hitting our east-central counties with the lowest visibilities, but suspect there will be fog over a larger area given the aforementioned reasons unless low clouds develop first. The long-awiated cold front is currently across northwest Arkansas, and will begin to move into our northwest counties tomorrow morning. Winds will begin to veer to the northwest ahead of the front in response to lee troughing, which may limit convergence.
Overnight, we'll see a resurgence of low clouds ahead of an approaching cold front. This system's cold front will clear our area by tomorrow night.
A cluster of storms developed over central OK and tracked across southeast OK late this afternoon, primarily behind an advancing cold front. Clearing skies, cooler and drier air moving into the region behind the front will yield overnight lows as much as 10 degrees below average for this time of year in spots north of I-40. Lacy (Through tonight ) Surface cold front making steady progress southeast this afternoon and is currently located near I-44. An uptick in coverage of mainly elevated storms is possible late this evening across southeast OK as convection moves ESE off the high plains withing a frontal zone aloft. Behind the surface front, almost chilly conditions by late May standards with temps in the low-mid 60s and a 10-15 mph north wind.