Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
The hot temperatures from today are slowly coming down as temperatures across the region are still showing temperatures in the low 90s to upper 80s. SO (This evening through Monday) One more day of widespread Moderate to Major HeatRisk with isolated areas of Extreme HeatRisk in the higher elevations across the region. Tonight, temperatures are expected to remain very warm in the region's higher elevations with 70's to mid 80's expected while the valleys and coastal areas cool into the low-to-upper 60's.
/22/ Weak ridging aloft will remain wedged into the region from the west. A closed mid/upper level low pressure system currently moving east across Ontario Canada, will continue to move east across southern portions of Hudson Bay into Quebec through Monday. Highs on Monday will range from the lower 80s north, where cooler air will begin advecting into the area behind the aforementioned cold front, to around 90 in the south ahead of it. In addition, with high pressure surging into the area in the front's wake, and what's now Hurricane Milton moving northeast across the central Gulf of Mexico, the pressure gradient will begin tightening across the region Monday.
642 PM CDT Sun Oct 6 2024 (Rest of today through Monday) A cold front is poised to sweep across Middle Tennessee during the next several hours.
1050 PM EDT Sun Oct 6 2024 Dry conditions will return for the remainder of the upcoming week as high pressure builds across most of the United States. The cold front has pushed through the remainder of the southeast CWFA. In the CAA pattern, lows will range from the mid 40s north to the lower 50s south. Temperatures will be considerably cooler with highs in the mid and upper 60s. High pressure parks over the Ohio Valley for most of the upcoming week.
900 PM EDT Sun Oct 6 2024 Warm and dry conditions persist until a cold front tracks across the region Monday.
654 PM MDT Sun Oct 6 2024 - Cooler temperatures (highs in the 70s) expected today. the center (ridge) of which extends northward from the northern Rockies to the Northwest Territories and Nunavut. Meanwhile, at lower latitudes (25-35N), an active southern stream jet in the Pacific will usher a positively tilted trough ashore the southern Pacific Coast /Baja, CA/ Mon- Mon night. will back to the west Mon-Mon night as the aforementioned southern stream trough progresses ashore the southern Pacific Coast. Upper ridge moves little through the week with dry conditions and above normal temperatures.
A cold front approaches tonight and will cross through Monday morning. A cold front currently lies back to our west across the eastern Great Lakes which will be approaching the region late tonight before crossing through on Monday. By Monday morning, the cold front will be making steady progress across the area, clearing the coast by the afternoon.
A cold front approaches tonight and will cross through Monday morning. A cold front currently lies across central PA and continues to shift east tonight, crossing through the Delaware Valley overnight and through Monday morning. By Monday morning, the cold front will be making steady progress across the area, clearing the coast by the afternoon.
Late tonight a dry cold front will approach the area from the north and west. This will keep any potential for widespread fog at bay and begin to usher in a cooler, drier air mass.
738 PM EDT Sun Oct 6 2024 A few showers and thunderstorms will be possible into early evening in eastern parts of the area as a cold front moves through the region. Dry conditions will return for the remainder of the upcoming week as high pressure builds across most of the United States. Associated relatively strong surface cold front currently pushing into west central Ohio to drop east-southeast across the area this aftn. Temperatures will be considerably cooler with highs in the mid and upper 60s. High pressure parks over the Ohio Valley for most of the upcoming week.
1016 PM EDT Sun Oct 6 2024 Convective activity currently through NY to PA to WV along the much anticipated cold front is sweeping south and east tonight. Dry and milder conditions are expected on Monday, following the passage of a cold front. This Evening/Tonight Currently this afternoon, a closed low is centered north of the Great Lakes with a cold front progressing towards the Ohio River Valley. With pretty weak support and strong high pressure to the west, this development will likely be limited. Monday By late Monday morning, the cold front is expected to have moved south and east of our area with expansion of high pressure from the Great Plains.
515 PM MDT Sun Oct 6 2024 - High pressure will keep dry conditions in the forecast with near record-highs expected.
709 PM CDT Sun Oct 6 2024 The much ballyhooed cold front was located just to our northwest at 7 PM CDT. (Rest of today through Monday) A cold front is poised to sweep across Middle Tennessee during the next several hours.
(This evening through Monday night) Cooler temperatures behind the cold front are transpiring across the CWA today.
The front will usher in a much drier airmass which will at least allow overnight lows to drop off much cooler than previous nights. Some of the more usual cold spots across northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas could dip down into the low to mid 40s by tomorrow morning. Guidance continues to indicate several periods through mid week where mid level moisture will deepen on the periphery of the upper ridge and spread in or near the local region. While confidence may be trending upward in this occurring, the low coverage and variable placement will keep precip chances very low at this time.
755 PM EDT Sun Oct 6 2024 - Some clouds and turning cooler tonight - High pressure brings quiet weather Monday and Monday night - Cool and dry, then warmer with showers possible - Some clouds and turning cooler tonight Winds will remain strong for the next several hours and begin to diminish as we approach sunset due to the loss of daytime heating and correspondingly mixing. It will be a cool night with lows mainly in the lower to middle 40s. - High pressure brings quiet weather Monday and Monday night High pressure begins to move in on Monday which should trend conditions back to mostly sunny and calm the wind down as well.
600 PM MDT Sun Oct 6 2024 Aviation Section Updated Upper level ridging will keep the region mostly warm and dry through the week.
A couple of updated thoughts regarding both frost potential Mon AM, and possible "near-critical" fire weather Monday afternoon: - Mon AM frost potential: Fully agree with previous forecaster that our 7-northern most counties (north of I-80) stand the HIGHEST potential for frost development and thus are in the official Advisory. However, want to also acknowledge here that at least patchy frost probably cannot be ruled out in a few counties outside the Advisory, particularly those along I-80 itself, and also farther south down the Highway 81 corridor (maybe even as far south as the Hebron area?). where winds will be overall-lightest in closest proximity to departing ridge axis.
1037 PM EDT Sun Oct 6 2024 The passing of a cold front will finally introduce temperatures that will be more typical of the season.
(This afternoon through Monday) At a glance: - Warmer than average - An isolated shower possible along/south of Columbus A stationary boundary draped across the northern Gulf will allow for a few showers to continue across our far southern tier this afternoon, primarily along and south of a line extending from Columbus to Macon, otherwise yet another dry day on tap.
552 PM CDT Sun Oct 6 2024 (Tonight) Cold front will make steady progress southward through the local forecast area this afternoon through the early morning hours. Guidance continues to indicate several periods through mid week where mid level moisture will deepen on the periphery of the upper ridge and spread in or near the local region. While confidence may be trending upward in this occurring, the low coverage and variable placement will keep precip chances very low at this time.
- The NW wind brings cooler air into the region that carries temperatures down closer to normal for the early week period. - Dry weather and cooler temperatures hold through mid week.
720 PM EDT Sun Oct 6 2024 Warm and dry conditions persist until a cold front tracks across the region Monday.
448 PM MDT Sun Oct 6 2024 - Cooler temperatures (highs in the 70s) expected today. the center (ridge) of which extends northward from the northern Rockies to the Northwest Territories and Nunavut. Meanwhile, at lower latitudes (25-35N), an active southern stream jet in the Pacific will usher a positively tilted trough ashore the southern Pacific Coast /Baja, CA/ Mon- Mon night. will back to the west Mon-Mon night as the aforementioned southern stream trough progresses ashore the southern Pacific Coast. Upper ridge moves little through the week with dry conditions and above normal temperatures.
352 PM PDT Sun Oct 6 2024 Quiet weather is expected through the middle of the week as high pressure builds into the Pacific Northwest.
A cold front has moved into the portions of northwest Tennessee and northeast Arkansas. Monday will be a cooler day with temperatures some 10 to 15 degrees cooler than today with highs in the lower 70s to around 80 degrees.
851 PM MDT Sun Oct 6 2024 Upper level ridging will keep the region mostly warm and dry through the week.
914 PM EDT Sun Oct 6 2024 - Some clouds and turning cooler tonight - High pressure brings quiet weather Monday and Monday night - Cool and dry, then warmer with showers possible Strato-cu clouds/overcast conditions continue to expand southward this evening in strong cold advection pattern. - Some clouds and turning cooler tonight Winds will remain strong for the next several hours and begin to diminish as we approach sunset due to the loss of daytime heating and correspondingly mixing. It will be a cool night with lows mainly in the lower to middle 40s. - High pressure brings quiet weather Monday and Monday night High pressure begins to move in on Monday which should trend conditions back to mostly sunny and calm the wind down as well.
Light winds and well above normal temperatures will also persist tomorrow though increasing clouds from a weak trough will bring light showers to the area with the best chances across central Nevada on Monday.
219 PM PDT Sun Oct 6 2024 Quiet weather is expected through the middle of the week as high pressure builds into the Pacific Northwest.
801 PM EDT Sun Oct 6 2024 The passing of a cold front will finally introduce temperatures that will be more typical of the season.
As the high pressure sets up and the low to our east moves farther out the pressure gradient will fall. The previously mention ridging and high pressure will provide for clear skies and light winds. Temperatures will fall into the 30s with the exception of the core Twin Cities metro where the urban heat island should keep the low more around 40. There will also likely be some isolated areas with temperatures that fall below freezing, most likely in the usual cold spots. For the rest of the week ridging dominates with no realistic chance for any QPF.
Conditions become mostly sunny as high pressure dominates our local weather patterns during the day Monday, with highs in the 60s. - Risk for Frost/Freeze conditions both Tue and Wed nights Cool Canadian high pressure builds down from northern Ontario into the northern Great Lakes region during this time.
The front will usher in a much drier airmass which will at least allow overnight lows to drop off much cooler than previous nights. Some of the more usual cold spots across northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas could dip down into the low to mid 40s by tomorrow morning.
As these showers and thunderstorms moved across the Lower Keys earlier (between 8-9pm EDT), they brought heavy rain and gusty winds. A couple wind gusts observed were 32 knots or 37 mph at Key West International Airport with the highest gust to 37 knots or 43 mph reported on Big Coppitt Key. Weak low pressure continues to slowly move eastward across the east- central Gulf of Mexico. The weak low pressure system over the east-central Gulf will continue to be the main driver for the weather across the Keys overnight through Monday.
141 AM EDT Mon Oct 7 2024 Convective activity currently through NY to PA to WV along the much anticipated cold front is sweeping south and east tonight. Dry and milder conditions are expected on Monday, following the passage of a cold front. This Evening/Tonight Currently this afternoon, a closed low is centered north of the Great Lakes with a cold front progressing towards the Ohio River Valley. With pretty weak support and strong high pressure to the west, this development will likely be limited. Monday By late Monday morning, the cold front is expected to have moved south and east of our area with expansion of high pressure from the Great Plains.
Temperatures are a bit warmer than last night: generally in the 40s and 50s, with some 30s at higher elevations or in relatively calm, low spots. At the surface, the high centered over the Midwest will shift southeastward as troughing in the lee of the Rockies expands over the High Plains. As this occurs, a midlevel ridge axis will shift from near the Rockies to over the High Plains, with accompanying low-level thermal ridging gradually expanding northeastward.
(Today through Tuesday) A cold front is entering Central Alabama this morning evidenced by a thin line of reflectivity on radar and northerly surface winds and lower dew points across Tennessee.
432 AM EDT Mon Oct 7 2024 Dry conditions and noticeably cooler temperatures are expected through much of the work week. KEY MESSAGES: - Dry weather and cooler temperatures. ------------------------------------------------------------------- Clearing should be fairly rapid behind the front as it continues east of the ridges this morning, followed by an increase in stratocumulus out of northeast with increased cold advection aloft. In the wake of the front, cooler air arrives today and Tuesday with cold advection the wake of the front.
121 AM EDT Mon Oct 7 2024 Warm and dry conditions persist until a cold front tracks across the region Monday.
105 AM EDT Mon Oct 7 2024 Dry conditions and noticeably cooler temperatures are expected through much of the work week. KEY MESSAGES: - Cooler temperatures by this morning behind the front. ------------------------------------------------------------------- Clearing should be fairly rapid behind the front as it continues east of the ridges the remainder of the night. KEY MESSAGES: - Dry weather and cooler temperatures. ------------------------------------------------------------------- Much cooler air arrives today and Tuesday with cold advection the wake of the front.
(Today through Tuesday night) High pressure builds further over the southern plains again for both today and Tuesday. As it does so it will shift the winds back to the southwest bringing warmer air back across the panhandles.
857 PM PDT Sun Oct 6 2024 Upper ridge begins to shift east, but hot conditions remain for inland areas will continue through Monday with a subtle cooling trend for mid week but still much above averages for inland areas. A weak upper trough slides down the West Coast on Tuesday replacing the heat dome.
One short wave moving southeast thru NW Ontario re-enforcing the upper low in northern Ontario. 500 mb flow will turn more westerly by mid week and heights will rise a bit as broad 500 mb ridge builds.
The dry, warm trend will peak on Monday as a trough works its way southward from B.
The cold front has cleared the local area, with northerly flow bringing in some cooler and drier air, which will remain entrenched across the Ohio Valley through the next 5 to 7 days.
348 AM EDT Mon Oct 7 2024 A cold front exits the area early this morning. Breezy conditions are expected this afternoon and evening in the wake of the front as high pressure builds over the region. High pressure will remain in control with below normal temperatures Tuesday through late week. The cold front and associated precip will swiftly exit early this morning and high pressure builds in behind it with mostly sunny skies. With building high pressure, the tight pressure gradient will result in breezy conditions, northwest winds gusting 20-25 mph. As cooler air advects in, high temperatures are only expected to reach the upper 60s to mid 70s, and 50s in the mountains. a few degrees cooler than Monday night, so the potential for frost continues.
Despite the sunshine, fairly strong cold air advection behind the front will help to keep afternoon highs cooler than yesterday.
1043 PM MDT Sun Oct 6 2024 - High pressure will keep dry conditions in the forecast with near record-highs expected.
A weak upper low will remain near/just west of our area.
1140 PM MDT Sun Oct 6 2024 Upper level ridging will keep the region mostly warm and dry through the week.
Given the low confidence conditions overlap and the amount of areal coverage, we have held of for now on any fire weather related hazard headlines. Tomorrow, the upper ridge returns to over the region placing us under northwest flow aloft. The stalled warm front will move across the remainder of the area leaving behind light and variable winds. Temperatures are forecast to be in the lower 80s for highs and in the 40s to lower 50s overnight.
(This evening through Monday) Little change to our weather the next 24 hours, as we remain under the influence of high pressure aloft.
WV imagery this morning still shows a weakness in the upper ridge in the form of an inverted trough that is having little effect on West Texas and Southeast New Mexico other than keeping highs a bit cooler each day than they otherwise would be. In addition to that, cooler air looks to filter into the area today from a cold front that stalled north of the area yesterday. Highs this afternoon should average 2-3 F cooler than yesterday, but still ~ 4-6 F over normal.
Overnight lows will be in the low 70s with cloudy skies.
Temperatures as of this writing have already fallen into the 30s and 40s, with a few points nearing freezing, especially in the north and through the Nishna valleys. Moisture content is relatively low with dew points generally in the upper 20s to 30s, but if this cooling continues through the morning hours, wouldnât be surprised to see some frost reports from those cooler areas in northern and western Iowa. Luckily for the forecaster, there will be some smoke drifting overhead today as the high pressure continues further east. However, with cooler air aloft and less mixing today, this smoke will remain aloft and shouldnât cause any impacts at the surface.
300 AM EDT Mon Oct 7 2024 - Northwest wind brings cooler air into the region that carries temperatures down closer to normal for the early week period. - Dry weather and cooler temperatures hold through mid week.
High pressure ridge expected to break-down and shift eastward over the next 24 hours.
(Today and tonight) At the surface, high pressure sits to our north while a frontal boundary sits well to our south. Highs are expected to be in the mid to upper 80s for much of the region, except perhaps the low 80s for the SE FL Big Bend where cloud cover will hang on the longest.
1229 AM CDT Mon Oct 7 2024 (Tonight through Monday night) Upper level ridging will keep conditions quiet today with dry weather and mostly sunny skies. Temperatures continue to be coolest in the southern Edwards Plateau and Hill Country each night with lows in the in the low 60s for these locations.
401 AM EDT Mon Oct 7 2024 Several disturbances will bring scattered showers under a trough through mid-week. High pressure then builds in for the end of the week. The cold front which moved through the region early this morning will continue to shift eastward. Given the airmass coming in temperatures look fairly slow to rise today with most locations getting into the low 60's. A strong upper level low continues to dive into Ontario and Quebec with northwest flow behind tonight. Temperatures tonight look to fall into the low 40's for most locations. Another mid-level disturbances rotates around the trough into the region Tuesday. Once again the highest chances look to be just downstream of Lake Ontario. Temperatures look to struggle to around 60 as well with the cooler airmass in place.
1229 AM EDT Mon Oct 7 2024 Dry conditions and noticeably cooler temperatures are expected through much of the work week. KEY MESSAGES: - Cooler temperatures by this morning behind the front. ------------------------------------------------------------------- Clearing should be fairly rapid behind the front as it continues east of the ridges the remainder of the night. KEY MESSAGES: - Dry weather and cooler temperatures. ------------------------------------------------------------------- Much cooler air arrives today and Tuesday with cold advection the wake of the front.
145 AM EDT Mon Oct 7 2024 There will be a chance for some passing showers and isolated thunderstorms overnight, as a cold front moves through the area. Behind this front, cooler air will move into the region during the upcoming week, although it will continue to remain dry for most of the time. Showers could re-generate as the cold front moves through during the early morning hours, but coverage still looks less extensive as before. Due to widespread cloud cover and the main cold front still back across western NY, raised min and hourly temperatures a few degrees. We retooled the PoPs and weather for the next 3-6 hours with the pre-frontal showers and thunderstorms and then the cold front towards sunrise.
Synopsis: Surface analysis this afternoon shows a cold front stretching from NE Indiana, to just west of Indianapolis to SW Indiana and W KY. Strong high pressure was found over the northern plains. This cold front was moisture starved, barely showing any clouds associated with it. However, due to strong low pressure over Ontario, a moderate pressure gradient remained in place across Central Indiana. Strong ridging aloft over the western CONUS will continue to provide Pacific NW flow aloft, with strong lee side subsidence building across Indiana and the Ohio Valley. Meanwhile within the lower levels the previously mentioned High pressure system and its very dry and cooler air mass will begin to nose southeast into the middle Mississippi Valley. This will allow for much cooler highs on Monday, reaching only the upper 60s to near 70.
The main concern in the short term will minor coastal flooding and the high risk of rip currents along local beaches. Seas and swells, generated by Hurricane Milton, will continue to increase along the Lower Texas Coast today through Tuesday. Drier air courtesy of Milton and a mid-level ridge expands eastward over Texas will maintain rain-free conditions across the region through Tuesday. Slightly cooler tonight with lows generally in the mid to upper 60s, which is near normal.
132 AM EDT Mon Oct 7 2024 - Some clouds and turning cooler tonight - High pressure brings quiet weather Monday and Monday night - Cool and dry, then warmer with showers possible Strato-cu clouds/overcast conditions continue to expand southward this evening in strong cold advection pattern. - Some clouds and turning cooler tonight Winds will remain strong for the next several hours and begin to diminish as we approach sunset due to the loss of daytime heating and correspondingly mixing. It will be a cool night with lows mainly in the lower to middle 40s. - High pressure brings quiet weather Monday and Monday night High pressure begins to move in on Monday which should trend conditions back to mostly sunny and calm the wind down as well.
This wl be the trend thru the day today, as drier air continues to filter into the FA, w/ cooler air temps noted after a few days of well above-normal to record high temps. Cooler condns wl persist Mon and into Tues, w/ high temps generally in the mid 70s to low 80s, and overnight lows falling into the 40s to 50s Tues and Wed mrngs.
1220 AM CDT Mon Oct 7 2024 The much ballyhooed cold front was located just to our northwest at 7 PM CDT. (Rest of today through Monday) A cold front is poised to sweep across Middle Tennessee during the next several hours.