Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
- A cold front will bring showers, thunderstorms, and some breezy winds to the area tonight through Monday. - Cooler temperatures in the 60s are expected Monday, with a very gradual warming trend thereafter.
632 AM CDT Sun Jun 1 2025 Today and Tonight: SLightly cooler than normal and mostly dry through the period. This high will continue shifting southeast over the northern Gulf through tonight. Otherwise, a few more sites will top out in the middle 80s this afternoon and most locations will bottom out in the low to mid 60s Monday morning. /22/ We start the week quiet with upper ridging building aloft, which will reinforce northerly flow for the time being.
The trough moves away on Monday with upper ridging building across the area. Lows tonight will be in the low 60s inland to near 70 along the coast.
A slow moving cold front approaches late in week with a return to more active weather at the end of the week and the weekend. Will monitor isolated appearance of valley fog in the higher valleys and may issue a pre-dawn update to put some valley fog into the grids. As high pressure at the surface drifts toward the east slightly, southerly flow will persist through the rest of this period.
Tonight, high pressure sets in and strengthens over the Appalachian region, with precipitation diminishing, calm winds, clearing skies, and fairly cool temperatures as a result. Temperatures could dip into the low to mid 40s for portions of southwest Virginia and mountainous terrain of northeast Tennessee.
However an upper level trough will start to dive south by the afternoon. Models have this upper level trough cutting off from the upper level flow and become a low. This mean the upper level low will be stuck down here in Florida all week.
As the parent low associated with our cold front continues to push off to the northeast, a secondary vort max will round the base of this upper level trough through the day on Monday which will cool temperatures aloft and steepen lapse rates which could support a few strong to marginally severe thunderstorms during the afternoon.
High pressure returns Monday and will remain nearby all week with gradually warming temperatures.
Temperatures will be near normal with highs in the low to mid 90s.
Rain chances will come to an end for southern portions of area heading into the overnight period as the trough continues to track southeast out of the area while the remainder of our CWA remains dry. Overnight lows will dip into the low/mid 60s areawide. Afternoon highs for Monday will peak into the mid to upper 80s with a few areas south of Hwy 84 climbing into the lower 90s.
(Through Monday) The upper level trough will shift eastward this period taking some the Canadian smoke overhead with it. Lows will drop into the mid to upper 60s with highs Monday in the lower 90s.
402 PM EDT Sun Jun 1 2025 Low pressure will continue north through Quebec tonight through Monday.
151 PM MDT Sun Jun 1 2025 - A passing weather disturbance and relatively strong cold front for early June will move across the forecast area on Monday, producing widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms Monday afternoon and night.
WV imagery depicts upper level ridge over the Northern Plains with a deepening trough over western Canada/the PNW. Sfc analysis shows the a sfc front/trough draped across southeastern MT. The main cold front will push through the CWA overnight and will have mostly passed through the CWA by Monday afternoon. Therefore, while we may see a few thunderstorms in the morning with the sfc cold front and then later in the afternoon as the upper level front moves through, it's unlikely we'll see anything too widespread or severe for much of the CWA.
157 PM CDT Sun Jun 1 2025 - Monday will be quite warm with highs into the upper 80s to near 90 degrees, then cooler temperatures for the rest of the week with highs in the 70s.
213 PM EDT Sun Jun 1 2025 Dry high pressure builds across our region through mid week with temperatures near normal or a little above normal. As of 140 PM: East-west oriented weak convergence axis is analyzed across western NC at this hour in advance of a cold front across KY/VA, which will sag slowly southward into the area through tonight. Also seeing a signal for fog along the lower Broad River of the Upstate, although that is less certain with sfc moisture not likely enhanced by showers today. Subsidence is expected to cap off deep convection and keep PoPs near zero over most areas; can't absolutely rule out a shower developing over the Blue Ridge Escarpment SW of Asheville, but PoP remains less than 10% there. Highs near or slightly warmer than today's values.
/CR/ Today and Tonight: Slightly cooler than normal and mostly dry through the period. This high will continue shifting southeast over the northern Gulf through tonight. Otherwise, a few more sites will top out in the middle 80s this afternoon and most locations will bottom out in the low to mid 60s Monday morning. /22/ We start the week quiet with upper ridging building aloft, which will reinforce northerly flow for the time being.
(This evening through Monday) A deep trough over the northeast will slowly move to the east through the short term, with high pressure building over the southeastern US. Winds will slowly transition from out of the west today to the southeast by Monday afternoon, with a return of warmer air to the state. High temperatures today will be in the mid 80s, a couple of degrees below normal for this time of year, with highs tomorrow several degrees warmer, closer to normal values.
A mid-level trough is currently moving across the Lower MS Valley bringing slightly higher coverage of clouds to North GA today in addition to the Cu field that's beginning to develop. Forecast high temperatures will climb into the 80s areawide on Monday (perhaps in the low to mid 70s in the mountains).
Cold front currently resides just south of the KY-80 corridor in our far southern counties early this afternoon, and this front will continue to track slowly south into Tennessee later this afternoon into the evening. The period will begin with upper level ridging from the southeast CONUS to southeast Ontario, including the southern/central Appalachians and the Ohio Valley. At the surface, high pressure will be centered in the vicinity of VA/NC, while a cold front associated with the western trough stretches from the TX panhandle to Lake Superior.
A slow moving cold front approaches late in week with a return to more active weather at the end of the week and the weekend.
Most guidance does take the trough through the region along with enough moisture to support showers well into PA. Upper troughing will still be over the Northeast U. Ridging starts building overhead on Monday and temperatures will make a decent rebound with highs nearing 70 under mostly sunny skies. Only made some minor changes from the previous forecast as the high pressure system building in will be quite dry, so lowered dew point temperatures significantly from NBM during peak mixing Monday afternoon. Cool upper level trough remains in place for one more night with temperatures in the mid 40s to low 50s. Model guidance hints at moisture riding along the back end of the trough as it exits east. Although with high pressure in place, this will most likely result in some cloud cover overnight.
103 PM EDT Sun Jun 1 2025 High pressure will be in control through this morning. High pressure returns Monday and will remain nearby all week with gradually warming temperatures.
Forcing ahead of an upper level system advancing into the Four Corners should activate the dryline over West Texas and the higher terrain in Mexico Monday afternoon.
Some improvement is expected this afternoon as mixing improves, and high resolution guidance does push out the higher near surface smoke to the east, but this will need to be watched. Near term guidance keeps smoke in the region through the remainder of the day and into Monday before a cold front helps clear at least some of it. Wildfire smoke remains trapped under the ridge, maintaining the presence of near surface smoke across much of the region. Heading into Monday, a cold front brings the chance for showers and thunderstorms, with isolated severe thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening.
Temperatures at 11 AM EDT were in the mid to upper 80s, and dew points were anywhere from the lower to mid 70s.
1246 PM CDT Sun Jun 1 2025 (Today through Monday) Key Messages: - Minor to Moderate (level 1/2 of 4) Risk of Heat-Related Impacts Sunday increasing to areas of Major (level 3 of 4) Monday A mid to upper level ridge will be over the region today through Monday, increasing subsidence and promoting warm and dry weather.
pdf Tonight: Dry air mass and weak pressure pattern will linger across the region with a slight increase in high clouds expected tonight, so not as cool as last night, but still comfortable by early June standards with lows in the lower to middle 60s over inland areas, while the Atlantic Coastal areas will fall into the upper 60s/near 70F. Monday: Weak troughing across the region and some slight increase in moisture northward up the Florida Peninsula will lead to isolated thunderstorm potential along the East Coast sea breeze as it moves inland across NE FL, mainly south of a line from St. Max temps will push back to slightly above normal levels in the lower 90s over inland areas, and into the upper 80s along the Atlantic Coast areas prior to the development of the East Coast sea breeze.
- Turning cooler to end the week, with transition period likely bringing a round of showers and thunderstorms.
Have also beefed up the sky grids to reflect mostly cloudy wording across much of the region given the extensive elevated cigs developing along/ahead of the convection/trough axis. This in turn, may affect max temps especially over portions of E TX/SW AR, and thus, have lowered the forecast values slightly given the ongoing -RA as well as the cooler 15-16Z temps.
Minor to Moderate Heat Risk is expected across the lower elevations of the region today with less Heat Risk for the remainder of the week. A cool-down is now in play across the region as a cold front introduces maritime air today.
(Tonight through Monday night) Key Message: - Minor to moderate (level 1/2 of 4) risk of heat-related impacts Monday, areas of major (level 3 of 4) over Brush Country Low-level southeasterly flow will promote near to above normal moisture while mid to upper level ridging remains over South Texas through Monday.
144 PM EDT Sun Jun 1 2025 High pressure will dominate the region into the middle of the week.
Otherwise, a low-level ridge will remain across the southeast states, keeping the area rain-free late tonight through Monday night.
Clear skies and light winds will allow temperatures to drop into the lower 60s tonight keeping temps on the cooler side of seasonal norms.
Highs are still slated to rise into the lower 80s for most locations this afternoon, but some spots over the higher terrain of northeast Alabama and southern middle Tennessee may only reach the upper 70s.
Monday will kick off a stretch of drier and warmer weather that will last through midweek.
239 PM EDT Sun Jun 1 2025 High pressure will shift gradually offshore early this week.
445 PM EDT Sun Jun 1 2025 High pressure will shift gradually offshore early this week.
140 PM PDT Sun Jun 1 2025 An area of low pressure to the south will bring a chance for showers and thunderstorms through this evening. Cooler weather with highs near normal will occur through much of the upcoming week.
- After one last warmer than normal day of temperatures in the 80s to near 90F degrees (5 to 10 degrees above normal) on Monday, temperatures will cool down into the 60s and 70s (near to as much as 10 degrees below normal) for much of the rest of the week. The combination of low level (frontal) forcing and mid/upper level lift from the approaching upper level longwave trof will aide in the development of showers and thunderstorms both along and behind Monday's cold frontal passage.
221 PM EDT Sun Jun 1 2025 Dry high pressure builds across our region through mid week with temperatures near normal or a little above normal. As of 140 PM: East-west oriented weak convergence axis is analyzed across western NC at this hour in advance of a cold front across KY/VA, which will sag slowly southward into the area through tonight. Also seeing a signal for fog along the lower Broad River of the Upstate, although that is less certain with sfc moisture not likely enhanced by showers today. Subsidence is expected to cap off deep convection and keep PoPs near zero over most areas; can't absolutely rule out a shower developing over the Blue Ridge Escarpment SW of Asheville, but PoP remains less than 10% there. Highs near or slightly warmer than today's values.
1159 AM CDT Sun Jun 1 2025 (Today through Monday) High pressure in the Gulf with weak low pressure across northeastern Mexico maintains a generally light southeasterly flow across Deep South Texas into the new week.
257 PM EDT Sun Jun 1 2025 High pressure will dominate the region into the middle of the week.
The latest NBM inits has removed the low pops that were in the forecast for late tonight and will leave the forecast dry overnight.
303 PM EDT Sun Jun 1 2025 High pressure will build into the area and remain in control through much of the upcoming week. Another area of low pressure may bring a front through the region towards the end of the week into the weekend. Some fair weather cumulus clouds in the lower levels of the atmosphere will be accompanied by Canadian wildfire smoke in the upper levels of the atmosphere the rest of this afternoon into this evening. In the meantime, a ridge of high pressure will build into the region late this afternoon and tonight. Low temperatures will drop into the lower to middle 40s tonight.
1055 PM EDT Sun Jun 1 2025 Dry high pressure builds across our region through mid week with temperatures near normal or a little above normal. Also seeing a signal for fog along the lower Broad River of the Upstate, although that is less certain with sfc moisture not likely enhanced by showers today. Subsidence is expected to cap off deep convection and keep PoPs near zero over most areas; can't absolutely rule out a shower developing over the Blue Ridge Escarpment SW of Asheville, but PoP remains less than 10% there. Highs near or slightly warmer than today's values.
A slight uptick in moisture and less subsidence under the weakening ridge has resulted in scattered convection over the higher terrain. Unfortunately, we are still dealing with the warm temperatures brought to us by the ridge so rain will have trouble reaching the ground in the valleys. Given the large temp dew point spread strong outflow winds of 40-60 mph are possible under these showers especially for the lower elevations. An unsettled weather pattern remains in place for much of the week ahead leading to cooler temperatures and periodic rain chances throughout the week.
914 PM EDT Sun Jun 1 2025 High pressure will build into the area and remain in control through much of the upcoming week. Another area of low pressure may bring a front through the region towards the end of the week into the weekend. A ridge of high pressure will build into the region through tonight. Low temperatures will drop into the lower to middle 40s tonight.
An upper level ridge over the northeast Pacific will bring generally dry conditions and temperatures near to slightly above normal throughout the week. Warmer temperatures for the weekend, with temperatures above normal.
740 PM EDT Sun Jun 1 2025 Dry high pressure builds across our region through mid week with temperatures near normal or a little above normal. East-west oriented weak convergence axis is analyzed across western NC at this hour in advance of a cold front across KY/VA, which will sag slowly southward into the area through tonight. Also seeing a signal for fog along the lower Broad River of the Upstate, although that is less certain with sfc moisture not likely enhanced by showers today. Subsidence is expected to cap off deep convection and keep PoPs near zero over most areas; can't absolutely rule out a shower developing over the Blue Ridge Escarpment SW of Asheville, but PoP remains less than 10% there. Highs near or slightly warmer than today's values.
806 PM EDT Sun Jun 1 2025 Low pressure will continue north through Quebec tonight through Monday.
621 PM CDT Sun Jun 1 2025 - Monday will be quite warm with highs into the upper 80s to near 90 degrees, then cooler temperatures for the rest of the week with highs in the 70s.
611 PM CDT Sun Jun 1 2025 (Tonight through Monday night) Key Message: - Minor to moderate (level 1/2 of 4) risk of heat-related impacts Monday, areas of major (level 3 of 4) over Brush Country Low-level southeasterly flow will promote near to above normal moisture while mid to upper level ridging remains over South Texas through Monday.
837 PM EDT Sun Jun 1 2025 High pressure will dominate the region into the middle of the week.
WV imagery depicts upper level ridge over the Northern Plains with a deepening trough over western Canada/the PNW. Sfc analysis shows the a sfc front/trough draped across southeastern MT. The main cold front will push through the CWA overnight and will have mostly passed through the CWA by Monday afternoon. Therefore, while we may see a few thunderstorms in the morning with the sfc cold front and then later in the afternoon as the upper level front moves through, it's unlikely we'll see anything too widespread or severe for much of the CWA. Scattered storms will cross northeastern WY and western SD this evening and again on Monday, as a cold front crosses the region. IFR conditions will be possible across the higher Black Hills.
A deep layered trough aligned along the Atlantic Coast is expected to amplify further. In addition, the surface through lower level Atlantic ridge is suppresed southward and stretches westward across Cuba and the northwestern Caribbean Sea. While dry air will remain aligned across our area through much of the night, moistening is expected through the lower levels and the low level inhibition should weaken substantially. The combination of deep layered troughing over the Atlantic States and a weak ridge across Cuba and the northwestern Caribbean is setting up a wet weather pattern across Keys waters.
Mid-levels are pretty dry looking at soundings around the region, and echo tops are struggling to even reach the freezing level, let alone the -20C level.
700 PM EDT Sun Jun 1 2025 High pressure will dominate the region into the middle of the week.
725 PM EDT Sun Jun 1 2025 High pressure will shift gradually offshore early this week.
High pressure slowly begins to build along the Gulf coast and move northward. As a result, dry weather continues to start the work week with afternoon highs in the low to mid 80s.
A slow moving cold front approaches late in week with a return to more active weather at the end of the week and the weekend. With dewpoints in the higher elevations of the northern mountains in the mid 30s however, will let the frost advisory ride, although it is probably going to be spotty at best.
608 PM CDT Sun Jun 1 2025 (This evening through Monday Night) Showers and thunderstorms are developing/moving into portions of the Brazos Valley and Piney Woods area this afternoon from a passing shortave trough aloft. SRH is broadly low, though short range models anticipate it could rise above 200m2s2 in the lowest 3km, mainly over the northern bounds of our CWA.
706 PM EDT Sun Jun 1 2025 (Through Monday) The upper level trough will shift eastward this period taking some the Canadian smoke overhead with it. Lows will drop into the mid to upper 60s with highs Monday in the lower 90s.
607 PM CDT Sun Jun 1 2025 (This evening through Monday) A deep trough over the northeast will slowly move to the east through the short term, with high pressure building over the southeastern US. Winds will slowly transition from out of the west today to the southeast by Monday afternoon, with a return of warmer air to the state. High temperatures today will be in the mid 80s, a couple of degrees below normal for this time of year, with highs tomorrow several degrees warmer, closer to normal values.
High pressure returns Monday and will remain nearby all week with gradually warming temperatures. It will be slightly warmer than the previous night but still below normal. With a few convective debris clouds over the region and dewpoints a little warmer than last night, expect lows in the upper 50s to low 60s.
513 PM MDT Sun Jun 1 2025 - A passing weather disturbance and relatively strong cold front for early June will move across the forecast area on Monday, producing widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms Monday afternoon and night.
129 AM EDT Mon Jun 2 2025 - Dry through Tuesday, with increasingly warmer temperatures over the next few days.
1247 AM EDT Mon Jun 2 2025 High pressure will shift gradually offshore early this week.
- A strong cold front early Tuesday will drop temperatures well below normal that will persist through the end of the work week.
1111 PM MDT Sun Jun 1 2025 - A passing weather disturbance and relatively strong cold front for early June will move across the forecast area on Monday, producing widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms Monday afternoon and night.
- Turning cooler to end the week, with transition period likely bringing a round of showers and thunderstorms. Maturing southwest flow on its backside and building mid level overhead heights looks to bring much warmer temperatures into the northern Great Lakes to kick off this work week. Airmass will continue to modify, helping keep temperatures at least a few degrees "warmer" than this past night. warmest across downslope favored areas of northeast lower Michigan and coolest near the big waters and areas north of the big bridge. Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Period of transition as low amplitude upper level troughing gradually builds across the northern Conus. Lead wave and falling mid level heights will send a slow moving cold front across our area.
Discussion: The eastern US trough will be exiting and heights will rise over our area as upper ridging builds in from the west.
- Cooler weather settles in Tuesday as rain showers continue. A cut-off low continues to spin over the Baja peninsula associated with the remnants of TS Alvin.
120 AM EDT Mon Jun 2 2025 High pressure will dominate the region into the middle of the week.
122 AM MDT Mon Jun 2 2025 - Much cooler today behind a cold front. A cold front moving through this morning and afternoon from the north will keep temperatures much cooler than yesterday. Highs east of the Continental Divide are 20 to 30 degrees cooler than yesterday, sitting mostly in the 60s. West of the Divide, highs are 10 to 20 degrees cooler, in the mid-60s to mid- 70s. With cooler temperatures today, high elevation snowmelt should slow. With the front fully through, highs Tuesday are a few degrees cooler than Monday.
Weak area of high pressure persists through the week. A ridge of high pressure will sit across the northeastern Pacific while a trough covers the Great Basin and into the central portion of the CONUS.
WV imagery depicts upper level ridge over the Northern Plains with a deepening trough over western Canada/the PNW. Sfc analysis shows the a sfc front/trough draped across southeastern MT. The main cold front will push through the CWA overnight and will have mostly passed through the CWA by Monday afternoon. Therefore, while we may see a few thunderstorms in the morning with the sfc cold front and then later in the afternoon as the upper level front moves through, it's unlikely we'll see anything too widespread or severe for much of the CWA. Scattered storms will continue across northeastern WY and western SD tonight and again on Monday, as a cold front crosses the region. IFR conditions will be possible across the higher Black Hills.