Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
The airmass is very moist and unstable with temperatures in the lower and middle 80s outside of where storms are occurring, while dew points are generally in the lower 70s. A line of thunderstorms is expected to develop just in advance of the associated cold front.
An approaching cold front will lead to additional showers and possibly severe thunderstorms late Monday into Monday night. Lows tonight will be in the middle 60s or so with highs in the lower 80s Monday.
For the remainder of the day, weak high pressure will continue to ridge west across the Florida peninsula as a cool front moves through the southeast states.
Temperatures along the Island Chain are in the mid to upper 70s with dew points in the lower to mid 70s. The pressure gradient between this high and a storm system moving northeastward into Ontario is weakening as the system moves away.
1229 AM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025 Updated at 1226 AM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025 - Thunderstorms with severe potential may redevelop along cold front today w/ much cooler temps behind the front.
Cooler air aloft is moving over the area this evening, with scattered showers across eastern OR and southwest Idaho. A strong upper level trough remains off the Oregon coast.
- Dense sea fog across the inland lakes, bays, and near shore coastal waters to spread inland up to I-10 ahead of the cold front.
433 AM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025 Current radar scans from this morning show a organized line of scattered showers and severe thunderstorms over portions of north MS, southeast Arkansas, and portions of northeast Louisiana pushing east across our forecast area thanks to a cold front tracking southeastward across our CWA. Showers will continue to decrease from the west by this afternoon as the cold front finally exits our forecast area and continues to push south towards the Gulf. Elsewhere, areas south of I-20 will see overnight lows in the low/mid 50s.
The storms have formed just ahead of a cold front that will come through the mid state later tonight and early Monday. Obviously, cooler air will fill in behind the front. Tomorrow's max temps will only be in the 60s, and several spots will drop into the 30s tomorrow night, although freezing temps appear unlikely. Temps will make a nice recovery on Tuesday as ridge of high pressure slides across the region.
607 AM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025 (Today through Tuesday Night) A weak cold front will sag southward across the CWA today, gradually pushing lower dew points into the region. Our northern counties are expected to be a little cooler than recent days, with highs in the mid/upper 70s. This should set the stage for a warm, humid, and breezy Tuesday with highs generally in the low 80s.
(Monday Night through Tuesday Night) A brief period of weak, upper ridging will take hold Monday night into Tuesday. However, clouds will increase as the aforementioned storm system pivots towards the Midwest and a warm front pushes north over the Tennessee Valley.
/OAJ/ Current radar scans from this morning show a organized line of scattered showers and severe thunderstorms over portions of north MS, southeast Arkansas, and portions of northeast Louisiana pushing east across our forecast area thanks to a cold front tracking southeastward across our CWA. Showers will continue to decrease from the west by this afternoon as the cold front finally exits our forecast area and continues to push south towards the Gulf. Elsewhere, areas south of I-20 will see overnight lows in the low/mid 50s.
A cold front, currently located in northern Mississippi and west Tennessee will quickly sweep through the Tennessee Valley this afternoon and evening. A cooler and drier airmass advects in from the northwest and helps erode the cloud cover resulting in clear skies tonight.
The highest threat for storms today is going to be over Broward and Palm Beach counties given the S/SSW flow at the surface and SW flow aloft. Temperatures for today and tomorrow will be in the mid to upper 80s across the region, with the lower end being observed near the coastlines.
Highs in the low to mid 90s are expected for both days, but moderate humidity levels will possibly cause heat indices to get into the triple digits for central and western portions of the Valley on Monday afternoon. Overnight low temperatures should get down into the lower 70s.
Temperatures range from the low teens near Devils Lake to the upper 20s near Fergus Falls. For Tuesday, low pressure forms in the lee of the Rockies, deepening as it traverses the Colorado High Plains, then moving northeastward on southwest flow.
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: The next upper low looks to push onshore into the Pacific NW today with southwest flow aloft over NE Montana.
An area of low pressure offshore will produce scattered showers across Western Washington today. A broad trough will remain over the area into midweek for a chance of showers and near seasonal temperatures. High pressure aloft will build into the region toward the end of the week for dry conditions and temperatures trending well above normal by the weekend.
- Widespread snow expected on Tuesday, with heavy snow possible in a few areas, particularly the higher terrain.
A brief bit of drier and cooler weather is expected Tuesday. Rain returns by midweek as do warmer temperatures. KEY MESSAGES: - Scattered showers throughout the day as a cold front crosses. ------------------------------------------------------------------- Morning analysis shows the surface cold front moving through central Ohio with some showers along it. The most likely area for that will be east of Pittsburgh where longer residence time of warmer southerly flow ahead of the boundary will work to generate some marginal instability; the HREF probs of >100 J/kg SBCAPE peaks around 70% toward the ridges. A surface cold front will slowly move eastward across the region this morning, finally clearing the forecast area by late in the afternoon. Lows will be much cooler than recent nights in northwest flow with values dipping below freezing north of Pittsburgh and into the mid 30s south of Pittsburgh.
A brief bit of drier and cooler weather is expected Tuesday. Rain returns by midweek as do warmer temperatures. KEY MESSAGES: - Scattered showers throughout the day as a cold front crosses. ------------------------------------------------------------------- The surface cold front is currently moving through eastern Ohio and edging into far northwest Pennsylvania, with a generally thin band of showers along it. The most likely area for that will be east of Pittsburgh where longer residence time of warmer southerly flow ahead of the boundary will work to generate some marginal instability; the HREF probs of >100 J/kg SBCAPE peaks around 70% toward the ridges. The cold front will finally exit the region during the afternoon/early evening hours. Lows will be much cooler than recent nights in northwest flow with values dipping below freezing north of Pittsburgh and into the mid 30s south of Pittsburgh.
442 AM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025 Current radar scans from this morning show a organized line of scattered showers and severe thunderstorms over portions of north MS, southeast Arkansas, and portions of northeast Louisiana pushing east across our forecast area thanks to a cold front tracking southeastward across our CWA. Showers will continue to decrease from the west by this afternoon as the cold front finally exits our forecast area and continues to push south towards the Gulf. Elsewhere, areas south of I-20 will see overnight lows in the low/mid 50s.
The region remains on the western periphery of an expansive high pressure that is centered east of Bermuda. Light to gentle breezes will continue slackening this afternoon as weak high pressure remains over the area. An expansive high pressure cell will develop by mid-week over the western North Atlantic, leading to freshening breezes across Keys coastal waters.
For Tuesday, low pressure forms in the lee of the Rockies, deepening as it traverses the Colorado High Plains, then moving northeastward on southwest flow.
641 AM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025 Current radar scans from this morning show a organized line of scattered showers and severe thunderstorms over portions of north MS, southeast Arkansas, and portions of northeast Louisiana pushing east across our forecast area thanks to a cold front tracking southeastward across our CWA. Showers will continue to decrease from the west by this afternoon as the cold front finally exits our forecast area and continues to push south towards the Gulf. Elsewhere, areas south of I-20 will see overnight lows in the low/mid 50s.
- Dense sea fog across the inland lakes, bays, and near shore coastal waters to spread inland up to I-10 ahead of the cold front. Weak cold front is moving through lower Acadiana and the coastal waters this morning with convection along an outflow boundary over St.
247 PM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025 - A few elevated thunderstorms will develop Tuesday night as a warm front lifts through the region, where a low probability (15% chance) for damaging wind gusts and large hail exists after midnight.
231 PM EDT Mon Mar 31 2025 - Cooler and dry through Tuesday evening.
A weak front wills stall near the coast tonight and high pressure will briefly build in before lifting northeastward by Tuesday afternoon. Overall, expect benign but warmer than normal weather to persist through Tuesday night. With ample sunshine tomorrow expect highs to rise into the low to mid 80s most locations, and strong southeast winds will keep lows well above normal tomorrow night, struggling to drop below 70 area- wide.
Overnight lows in the low to mid 50s tonight will climb to near 70 on Tuesday night as an enhanced low-level jet drives moisture from the Gulf of America northward across the region.
Models usually struggle trying to resolve this type of pattern and low pressure evolution. Given the swing of daily temperatures both above and below freezing, a mix of rain and snow is about the best we can tell for now. WSSI is showing some minor impacts from freezing rain in that mix for our Garfield County.
Morning update: The region is dominated by a low pressure trough over the West Coast, with an occluding frontal boundary and deformation axis shifting across the region. There are two areas of focus: north and the southeast, with the latter over the southeast CWA becoming the higher focus for precipitation this afternoon and early evening with activity already expanding in. Between these two areas a smattering of showers is possible anywhere, in hit- and- miss variety under the trough. With all that said, I've made some adjustments to fine-tune PoPs for this afternoon and evening and also to increase them a bit overnight into Tuesday AM around lee of the Cascades and western basin in the vicinity of that deformation axis and over a broader area going into Tuesday PM within the same unstable upper trough.
247 PM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025 High pressure and calm conditions will begin to take root today in the wake of the strong cold front that moved through the area this morning. An overall zonal pattern will dominate the CONUS with broad surface ridging entrenching in the region for the next few days. Generally put, lows tonight will range in the low 50s south of I-20, while long and north of temperatures will bottom out in the mid 40s.
Near the surface, a broad area of high pressure is shifting east through the Upper Midwest and Central Plains. Meanwhile, moisture return ahead of the advancing dryline will push surface dewpoints well up into the mid/upper 50s(F) to potentially the lower 60s(F), increasing instability.
1254 PM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025 (Today through Tuesday Night) A weak cold front will sag southward across the CWA today, gradually pushing lower dew points into the region. Our northern counties are expected to be a little cooler than recent days, with highs in the mid/upper 70s. This should set the stage for a warm, humid, and breezy Tuesday with highs generally in the low 80s.
CAMS cont to show this activity wl eventually exit the FA later this mrng, as an assocd upper trof slides east of the region, along with the fntl bndry. Elsewhere, much cooler and drier air contd to advect into the state behind the fnt. Highs today wl range fm the lower 60s to the lower 70s, with lows tngt falling into the 40s.
(This evening through Tuesday Night) Temperatures thus far today have sat a few degrees under what was initially expected, with most of Greater Houston in the low 80s and the northern zones in the 70s (Palacios being the outlier at 87). Warm and humid conditions prevail into tomorrow with highs in the lower 80s and dew points again breaking the 70 degree mark.
High pressure remains in control and as such we continue to see a southeast to south wind across the region. Here the waters are still in the lower to mid 70s and just cool enough to support at least a brief period overnight.
Forecast highs are in the low 80s with decent early-April sunshine.
Daytime heating on Tuesday will strengthen showers during the afternoon, especially over the higher terrain, where showers may produce thunder and graupel.
An area of low pressure offshore will produce scattered showers across Western Washington tonight. A broad trough will remain over the area into midweek for a chance of showers and near seasonal temperatures. High pressure aloft will build into the region toward the end of the week for dry conditions and temperatures trending well above normal by the weekend.
921 PM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025 Weak sfc ridging across the Southern Plains/Lower Miss Valley attm is resulting in light winds with just a little bit of remaining low level moisture in the form of cloud cover across our far eastern zones. Overnight lows in the low to mid 50s tonight will climb to near 70 on Tuesday night as an enhanced low-level jet drives moisture from the Gulf of America northward across the region.
Strong, gusty southwest winds will decrease into the evening, transitioning to northwest as a cold front brings valley rain and snow and mountain snow to portions of Utah.
Key Message(s): - A few storms still possible along the cold front later tonight. - Cooler air pushes in late tonight behind the front. The main cold front is still lagging behind this activity, and regional radars showing a thin line of showers and storms advancing right along the front. Some cloud cover will remain overnight, which will keep temperatures milder, at least until the cold front moves through and better cold advection develops, along with some drier air. Overnight lows expected to fall into the 50s ranging from the lower 50s west to upper 50s east. Key Message(s): - Cooler and dry Tuesday with the beginning of a warming trend. 5" behind the departing cold front.
Probabilistic guidance, including the HREF, indicate the best potential for visibility below 1 mile will be over the Gulf waters and along the Lower Texas beaches, but we'll continue to assess trends over the next few hours for any changes.
A cold front will stall later tonight and models continue to suggest that little precipitation will accompany it. The bigger concern is the low clouds that have already formed and the fog that is expected to form. Guidance continues to suggest fog as well and have included lower vis in addition to the lower cigs.
935 PM EDT Mon Mar 31 2025 A strong cold front will cross the area tonight.
A series of mainly dry weather systems will bring cooler temperatures midweek onward along with a chance of precipitation late in the week and into the weekend. The next weather maker comes Tuesday when a low pressure system drops into the area from the Pacific Northwest. With the combination of the low RHs, increased winds, and high fire danger, the Red Flag Warning is on track for Tuesday afternoon and evening. East/northeast winds of 25-35 mph with gusts 45-50 mph are possible, with the highest winds along the Arizona/New Mexico border and the higher elevations.
An upper-level composite analysis this evening reveals deep westerlies aloft over the Florida Keys, with a low-level ridge weakening near the Florida Keys. Intermittent haze was evident around portions of the lower Keys, including Key West during the late afternoon and early evening hours, reducing visibility to six miles at times.
617 PM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025 - A few elevated thunderstorms will develop Tuesday night as a warm front lifts through the region, where a low probability (15% chance) for damaging wind gusts and large hail exists after midnight.
While a few showers could develop along the cold front, most areas will be dry once the QLCS passes this afternoon.
716 PM EDT Mon Mar 31 2025 - Cooler and dry through Tuesday evening.
624 PM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025 (This evening through Tuesday Night) Temperatures thus far today have sat a few degrees under what was initially expected, with most of Greater Houston in the low 80s and the northern zones in the 70s (Palacios being the outlier at 87). Warm and humid conditions prevail into tomorrow with highs in the lower 80s and dew points again breaking the 70 degree mark.
The cold front is currently pushing south across northern portions of the state. While a few showers could develop along the cold front, most areas will be dry once the QLCS passes this afternoon.
702 PM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025 High pressure and calm conditions will begin to take root today in the wake of the strong cold front that moved through the area this morning. An overall zonal pattern will dominate the CONUS with broad surface ridging entrenching in the region for the next few days. Generally put, lows tonight will range in the low 50s south of I-20, while long and north of temperatures will bottom out in the mid 40s.
Discussion: Currently early this morning, mid/upper troughing is centered to our east with the recent cold front having pushed through the area. High pressure is also expanding from the Great Lakes into the region. Some height rises are also expected as weak ridging expands through the afternoon. By tonight, deepening troughing and a dynamic system will develop over the Rockies with height rises in the eastern U. This track, combined with high pressure strengthening and moving eastwards, will increase the MSLP gradient across the region.
These strong winds plus variable cloudiness are hindering nighttime cooling, resulting in minimum temperatures a few degrees warmer than seasonal averages. A cold front moving across the region as well as synoptic forcing under the jet could bring a few showers despite modest moisture profiles. A larger and more impactful low pressure system will funnel down into the Southwest region by mid-week.
A cool night is on tap with lows ranging from the mid 40s across the Highway 82 corridor, to the low 50s across the Highway 84 corridor. /15/ High pressure and calm conditions will begin to take root today in the wake of the strong cold front that moved through the area this morning. An overall zonal pattern will dominate the CONUS with broad surface ridging entrenching in the region for the next few days. Generally put, lows tonight will range in the low 50s south of I-20, while long and north of temperatures will bottom out in the mid 40s. Another bout of severe weather is expected as the aforementioned broad surface ridging sharpens into a meridional ridge with an upstream trough following suite, all in response to a strong low transiting the northern plains.
Highs in mostly clear southern Iowa will be in the low 50s. Much of the cooling will take place shortly after sunset as the H850 ridge moves overhead and calms winds, but will be replaced by strong winds as we enter Tuesday morning. Strong theta-e advection will focus much of the moisture in the advection wing and nearest the low. Some of this could be snow, but accumulations will be little to none since temperatures will be above freezing by mid morning. A long-wave trough will continue to park over the southwest CONUS and churn waves of energy eastward for the rest of this week. The cold front from the low that moved through the state Tuesday night will stall across the Ohio River Valley region, locking low level moisture out of Iowa for the remainder of the week.
(Today) A cold front has pushed into central GA through the central Gulf Coast. High pressure was located over the Great Lakes with a ridge axis south into the TN Valley. As the high shifts rapidly east today, and cyclogenesis takes place in the central Plains, flow will turn around to a southeast to south direction rather quickly today. Temperatures should reach highs in the lower 70s this afternoon as a result of the sunshine and return to warm air advection.
Key Message(s): - Drier air filtering in behind the cold front. A cold front remains to the northwest of the forecast area early this morning and will continue to push into the area over the next several hours. While temperatures will likely be cooler across the northern portion of the forecast area where cold advection will be a bit stronger, there will likely be a decent temperature gradient today with a rapidly deepening upper trough over the western CONUS leading to strengthening upper ridging over the Southeast. Highs will be in the low 70s in the northern area, into the upper 70s in the southern area. Broad offshore high pressure and upper ridging develops into Wednesday, with some moisture returning to the area and daytime temperatures increasing another 5-8 degrees.
The best chance for measurable snow continues to be near highway 14, but even here once the snow ends by late morning or so, the low levels warm above freezing.
(Rest of tonight and Tuesday) In wake of the cold front, a drier air mass will continue to filter into the Tennessee Valley tonight as evidenced by clouds dissipating on satellite data across the region. Gusty NW winds will gradually weaken under 5 MPH with a clear sky developing after Midnight -- allowing lows to fall back into the lower 40s in most locations (with a few upper 30s readings possible in far northeast Alabama and southern middle Tennessee). High pressure over FL/GA will continue to build into the region on Tuesday, promoting mostly sunny and dry conditions as temperatures return to the low to mid 70s in most locations by the afternoon.
358 AM EDT Tue Apr 1 2025 High pressure will build to the north near New England through Wednesday as deep low pressure develops over the Plains and moves into Canada. A warm front ahead of the low will lift through the area Wednesday night.
254 AM EDT Tue Apr 1 2025 High pressure will pass overhead today providing a brief cool down, fair dry conditions prevailing through the day. A warm front will move north, crossing the area Wednesday. 2) Clouds return late tonight ahead of a warm front. Lingering clouds over the mountains this morning will give way to sunshine for the afternoon as high pressure brings fair dry weather to the forecast area today. Clouds will be on the increase tonight, especially after midnight as a warm front lifts north ahead of a mid-CONUS storm system. Southeast upslope flow may provide enough saturation for some drizzle to develop along the southern Blue Ridge Wednesday morning.
The highest risk for severe storms will be over Southeast Georgia but could still see some strong isolated thunderstorms along and north of the I-10 corridor and the Suwannee Valley before this line of convection starts to break apart. Daytime highs will get in the low to mid 80s over southeast Georgia with temperatures in the mid to upper 80s over northeast Florida. Temperatures will dip into the low to mid 60s, staying slightly warmer along the coast with patchy fog possible mainly south of SR-20 in the early morning hours. (Tuesday through Wednesday night) Showers and isolated thunderstorm chances continue on Tuesday as the front lifts northward, with the highest rain chances being at 30% over northeast Florida.
Meanwhile, there's a developing low over the northern Plains and another one over the Desert Southwest with high pressure just off the eastern FL coast. A cold front approaching from north of our region shown by LAPS analysis is progged to retreat northward today followed by an approaching dryline that is expected to enter into our western CWA on Wednesday.