Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Clearing will then occur as we move into Thursday alongside a warming trend as high pressure ridging overspreads the CWA. This will then become the main weather focal point, with a few showers or storms possibly developing over the higher terrain during the afternoon, but with limited support the strength of this activity will be limited at best as well as brief.
The front should dip to the south this weekend with chances of showers remaining in the forecast as low pressure system develops over the Southeast. A cold front located off the Carolina coast and then draping back across the gulf coast states will have several waves developing along the front as it shifts north of the forecast area on Thursday. On Thursday afternoon, as the warm front lifts northward across the area and instability increases and deeper moisture is available chance of showers and thunderstorms increase the area. Low temperatures are expected to be in the lower 60s inland and the mid 60s at the beaches.
1233 PM CDT Wed May 7 2025 - Cooler and more seasonal today and tomorrow with coolest conditions near Lake Superior with onshore winds.
Warmer and drier conditions set in through the rest of the week and into the weekend. Scattered showers and thunderstorms have developed this afternoon across the higher terrain. SBCAPE is around 400-800 J/Kg which should limit the overall intensity, however remnant shear from the trough does not negate the potential for a couple stronger storms.
(This evening through Thursday) A weak upper level low across southern Arizona will track east toward far West Texas overnight, then across Central Texas as an open wave. The expected increase in cloud cover along with possible precipitation will result in cooler temperatures.
An upper low drops into southern Arizona tonight and quickly moves into far West Texas tomorrow. The low pulls moisture back west and combined with increasing instability sets favorable conditions for showers and thunderstorms to develop from the Trans Pecos to the Big Bend.
(Tonight) Low to mid clouds continue to linger over most of the area ahead of a closed low moving through the mid Mississippi Valley, allowing for continued cool conditions today as temperatures reach the upper 60s to low 70s. The highest chances of fog will be along large bodies of water and in any area that may receive rainfall this evening.
A weak front will pass through the region today, disrupting the thermal trough pattern.
1139 AM MDT Wed May 7 2025 - Warmer Temperatures Return - A Few Showers and Storms Today and Thursday - Better Chance of Rain and Thunder By the Weekend We are looking at warmer temperatures rapidly returning to central and eastern Idaho.
(This evening through Thursday night) The forecast area remains under westerly flow aloft, which switch to northerly tomorrow, as the upper level low continues to move off over southern KS and northern OK. Cloud cover remains especially over the northern half of the combined Panhandles thanks to the upper low at this time. Tomorrow afternoon, temperatures are expected to be a few degrees warmer but still slightly below normal as the FA remains under northerly flow aloft as well as light northerly surface winds.
(This evening through Thursday Night) The sun has returned this afternoon across much of the Four State Region, replacing the low overcast, fog and drizzle from earlier this morning.
137 PM EDT Wed May 7 2025 A slow moving low pressure system will slowly lift northeast this afternoon with showers tapering off from west to east. A cold front will then swing through our area tonight bringing a cooler shot of air for the latter half of the work week. The upper level low will slowly move towards New England today. As one trough exits to the east, another one approaches from the north tonight. A cold front will move across the forecast area this evening.
245 PM CDT Wed May 7 2025 - A cold front will bring gusty winds and cooler temperatures this evening and tonight.
A few locations could see a few hours with temperatures at or below freezing.
1214 PM CDT Wed May 7 2025 (Rest of Today and Tonight) Low to medium shower/thunderstorm chances (30-50%) continue through the Tennessee Valley today into this evening as an upper level low continues to slowly move eastward into the mid Mississippi Valley. These rain chances were adjusted based on trends as well as CAMs hinting as a large break in rain this morning before some afternoon development-- which could be pushed as late as this evening as they may even be currently overdone as a warm front struggles to lift northward. Despite the lowered rain chances, there are high chances (70%+) of low clouds continuing to stick around the area throughout the day. This will keep temperatures relatively cooler once again as highs reach the upper 60s to lower 70s.
652 PM EDT Wed May 7 2025 - Cooler and breezy into this evening.
Temperatures along the Island Chain are in the upper 70s with dew points in the lower 70s which is slightly lower than where they were last evening. From synopsis, an Atlantic ridge over the Florida Peninsula will continue to promote east to southeasterly breezes. This along with sloppy troughing in the Gulf will keep breezes moderate for the remainder of the week.
509 PM CDT Wed May 7 2025 (This evening through Thursday Night) The sun has returned this afternoon across much of the Four State Region, replacing the low overcast, fog and drizzle from earlier this morning.
705 PM CDT Wed May 7 2025 (Tonight) Low to mid clouds continue to linger over most of the area ahead of a closed low moving through the mid Mississippi Valley, allowing for continued cool conditions today as temperatures reach the upper 60s to low 70s. The highest chances of fog will be along large bodies of water and in any area that may receive rainfall this evening.
Combination of the low coverage of lower RH values and the lighter nature of winds in the majority of the region lower potential impacts and we continue to hold off on messaging near critical fire weather this afternoon/early evening.
Otherwise, with some low stratus also developing towards day break Thursday, look for lows tonight to fall into the low to middle 60s.
High temperatures will trend warmer each day reaching near or at 100 degrees by this weekend. Behind this low pressure is a building ridge that will slowly increase our afternoon high temperatures.
916 PM CDT Wed May 7 2025 - Basis latest lower rainfall forecast trends, the Flash Flood Watch has been adjusted to only include lower Acadiana through Thursday afternoon - Previous rainfall amounts and higher tides along the coast will persist river flooding for portions of the lower Neches, lower Sabine, lower Calcasieu basins, along with the Mermentau and Vermilion River basins - Rain chances forecast to lower through the weekend while daytime highs trend 5-10Â° below climatological norms under northerly winds A quiet night is ongoing across the NW Gulf Coast, quite the contrast from this time yesterday.
With the eastern upper low now over the northeast U. , the western upper low has shifted through the Central Plains and is around the OK/KS border as of midday Wednesday. 10 inch in a better shower/storm as reflected in the current forecast, but HREF Probability Matched Mean QPF data does continue to suggest some localized higher amounts which although possible, the higher end of which is likely overdone. Otherwise, main change today was to increase afternoon temperatures and further decrease afternoon dew points and have continued the warmer temperature/lower dew point trends into Thursday as noted in the previous update. Dry conditions return to the area overnight with high pressure drifting into the region.
Dry this evening with mostly high clouds streaming over the area as a cold front approaches from the NW. Dry cold front will pass through KBKE and KBNO around 08/04Z, KONO 08/07Z, KMYL and KBOI 08/11Z, KJER and KTWF 08/15Z.
There is a chance of showers and isolated storms once again during this time with the highest probabilities near LAL, and possibly TPA.
934 PM EDT Wed May 7 2025 Weak low pressure will cross the region tonight.
/33/ (This evening through Thursday Night) The sun has returned this afternoon across much of the Four State Region, replacing the low overcast, fog and drizzle from earlier this morning.
High pressure will build into the region from Canada today and will result in quiet weather through the end of the week.
1132 PM CDT Wed May 7 2025 - Basis latest lower rainfall forecast trends, the Flash Flood Watch has been adjusted to only include lower Acadiana through Thursday afternoon - Previous rainfall amounts and higher tides along the coast will persist river flooding for portions of the lower Neches, lower Sabine, lower Calcasieu basins, along with the Mermentau and Vermilion River basins - Rain chances forecast to lower through the weekend while daytime highs trend 5-10Â° below climatological norms under northerly winds A quiet night is ongoing across the NW Gulf Coast, quite the contrast from this time yesterday.
140 AM EDT Thu May 8 2025 A cold front will approach from the northwest, preceded by a pre-frontal trough that settles into the area. The cold front will then slowly sag across the area on Thursday, stalling near of just northwest of New York City by evening.
131 AM EDT Thu May 8 2025 - Cooler and breezy into this evening.
Our warm up is getting underway today with even warmer temperatures in store for the next few days as high pressure builds in over the Southwestern US. Ahead of the aforementioned high pressure really getting a hold on Eastern Idaho, we will still see the intrusion of some Pacific moisture leading to some isolated to nearly scattered showers and storms today.
127 AM EDT Thu May 8 2025 A passing cold front today will return showers and isolated storms south of Pittsburgh today. KEY MESSAGES: - Some areas could experience fog early this morning - Passing cold front returns rain and isolated storm chances this afternoon/evening ------------------------------------------------------------------- With lingering cirrus clouds across the region, the potential of fog could remain low despite light winds. With the passage of a cold front this afternoon/evening, the probability of rain showers and isolated storms increases between 12pm to 2pm with maximum surface heating.
113 AM EDT Thu May 8 2025 A passing cold front today will return showers and isolated storms south of Pittsburgh today. KEY MESSAGES: - Some areas could experience fog early this morning - Passing cold front returns rain and isolated storm chances this afternoon/evening ------------------------------------------------------------------- With lingering cirrus clouds across the region, the potential of fog could remain low despite light winds. With the passage of a cold front this afternoon/evening, the probability of rain showers and isolated storms increases between 12pm to 2pm with maximum surface heating.
Closed upper-low over MO will work eastward towards the Ohio Valley today and start to open up as it interacts with a positive tilted trough working out of the Great Lakes and into the Ohio Valley. A sfc cold front will also be dropping south towards the Ohio River out of Indiana during the day as well. Ahead of the approaching cold front, instability will increase to between 1500-2000 J/kg in the afternoon and model soundings show steepening mid/low-level lapse rates as well as about 25-35 knots of deep layer shear. Activity will also diminish from the NW-SE as the upper trough and associated sfc cold front push through to our south.
Lows will likely drop into the lower 60s primarily around daybreak on Thursday. An upper low can be seen in current satellite imagery over northwestern Arkansas and southwestern Missouri.
Surface gradient is still expected to increase overnight across much of the region limiting radiational cooling and aiding in air mass moderation (lows generally in the low to mid 40s). Combination of the low coverage of lower RH values and the lighter nature of winds in the majority of the region lower potential impacts and we continue to hold off on messaging near critical fire weather this afternoon/early evening.
Warmer and drier conditions set in through the rest of the week and into the weekend. Any thunderstorms at this point will be pretty isolated and more towards the NM border as the low has quickly exited the area. With the low off to the east, chances for showers will end with Thursday expected to be a dry day across the High Country. Warmer air will start to move in as the ridge builds into Arizona on Thursday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms have developed this afternoon across the higher terrain. SBCAPE is around 400-800 J/Kg which should limit the overall intensity, however remnant shear from the trough does not negate the potential for a couple stronger storms.
Based on forecast RH values in the low to mid 20s percent range in the Devils Lake basin conditions will be borderline critical in terms of fire weather. 500 mb short wave tracking west to east across the northern Canadaian prairies with a cold front south into north central/western ND this evening.
306 AM EDT Thu May 8 2025 A cold front will drop across the southern Great Lakes and Upper Ohio Valley region this morning followed by strong Canadian high pressure building across the Great Lakes this afternoon through the weekend. A cold front is pushing southward across the region this morning. High pressure from southern Ontario and Quebec will build southward across the area today and tonight. High temperatures will cool today in the middle 50s to the lower 60s.
1114 PM EDT Wed May 7 2025 Weak low pressure will cross the region tonight.
A compact upper level low was moving east into southwest MO this morning with a 40-45kt jet at 5h south of its path. As the wave moves east today, steep mid level lapse rates will develop after the low clouds and fog dissipate or lift. Ample surface heating is expected today with highs in the lower 80s and dew points in the lower to middle 60s. The thunderstorms should exit or dissipate by midnight as the cold front progresses southeast through the area.
Water vapor satellite imagery clearly shows the upper trough over the center of the country that will be the focus for our weather here in the TN Valley for the next several days. As this trough slips eastward tonight and tomorrow morning, there is the potential for us to see some breaks in the clouds, allowing for our atmosphere to destabilize as we move into the afternoon hours.
353 AM EDT Thu May 8 2025 A passing cold front today will return showers and isolated storms south of Pittsburgh today. KEY MESSAGES: - River valley fog expected this morning - Passing cold front returns rain and isolated storm chances this afternoon/evening ------------------------------------------------------------------- The GOES-16 Nighttime Microphysics satellite imagery shows clearing cirrus clouds for portions of the region and the formation of patchy fog in the river valleys, as temperatures drop from radiational cooling. With the passage of a cold front this afternoon/evening, the probability of rain showers and isolated storms increases between 12pm to 2pm with maximum surface heating.
A cold front continues to settle southward through central Illinois early this morning as a much cooler/drier airmass slowly filters in from the north. Surface dewpoints have dropped into the upper 30s across the far northern KILX CWA, but remain in the lower to middle 50s along/south of I-70. Based on expected frontal position at peak heating and HRRR/RAP/NAM consensus, have confined precip chances to locations along/south of a Jacksonville to Danville line, with the highest PoPs (greater than 50% chance) focused along/south of I-70. As skies clear from north to south and a light N/NE breeze continues to transport cooler air southward, chilly overnight lows ranging from the upper 30s far north near Galesburg and Lacon to the upper 40s far south around Flora and Lawrenceville are anticipated.
An area of high pressure will result in above normal temperatures and mostly dry conditions through the weekend.
1128 PM MDT Wed May 7 2025 - Warmer weather moves into the forecast area on Thursday and continues into the weekend. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms continue this afternoon, as an upper low continues to slowly drift across the Central Great Plains. Most of the forecast area remains under an east- northeasterly flow aloft, although KFTG VAD wind profile data indicates that upslope has weakened through the day today, while the low level (0-2km AGL) flow is a bit more north/northwesterly. Ridging should start to build across the region on Thursday, with high temperatures near normal along with party cloudy (fair weather cu) skies. A few showers and perhaps a thunderstorm or two will be possible during the afternoon hours over the higher terrain.
This low continues to bring scattered light showers across the region. Through the early morning hours, this low continues to move towards the east. This is in part thanks to a stout, rather uniquely shaped ridge building across the central CONUS. This ridge has a heavy positive tilted axis yielding a rather strange north to south trajectory compared to the typical west to east movement. This in part causes high temperatures to break the typical cooler north warmer south trend. The good news is that ridging and high pressure will keep things fairly quiet over the next few days. This flow becomes more easterly south of I-70 curtailing much of this advection from reaching central to southern MO yielding the atypical warmer north, cooler south gradient.
The low pressure system responsible for the widespread rainfall across SW Kansas the last couple days is slowly exiting the region to the east and the low's influence of SW Kansas' weather is loosening. Current RAP mesoanalysis depicts a weak and deep ridge to the north and west of the forecast area.
322 AM MDT Thu May 8 2025 - Warm today, with some afternoon showers and thunderstorms over the higher terrain.
Dry conditions return to the area overnight with high pressure drifting into the region. In the upper levels, the departure of the upper low into the Ohio River Valley Thursday into Friday also brings the return of an upper ridge which largely stays in place over the Upper Midwest through the weekend as a low churns over the Gulf Coast area.
The lowest visibilities are expected to continue through 9am over the northwest two thirds of the CWA where a Dense Fog Advisory is in effect for visibilities less than a quarter mile. Early morning satellite imagery/RAP analysis showed the circulation around a closed low spinning over southwest Missouri. This closed low will track east through tonight and help support weak cold front to drop into our CWA.
Water vapor satellite imagery clearly shows the upper trough over the center of the country that will be the focus for our weather here in the TN Valley for the next several days. As this trough slips eastward tonight and tomorrow morning, there is the potential for us to see some breaks in the clouds, allowing for our atmosphere to destabilize as we move into the afternoon hours. (Friday through next Thursday) As we move into Friday, the upper trough will slide southward taking moisture and most of the rain chances with it.
Northerly flow aloft between the exiting upper low and ridging to our west will promote an even better end to the work week, with sunny skies, highs in the 70s, and precip chances currently less than 10%.
Cooler & Drier Today: As a result, it will be drier today with the 40 degree isodrosotherm draped from northeast Iowa into western Illinois.
The low pressure system responsible for the widespread rainfall across SW Kansas the last couple days is slowly exiting the region to the east and the low's influence of SW Kansas' weather is loosening. Current RAP mesoanalysis depicts a weak and deep ridge to the north and west of the forecast area. Heading into the weekend, troughing is expected to develop over the northern rockies.
626 AM CDT Thu May 8 2025 (Today through Friday Night) Latest satellite imagery indicates an upper low, centered near the four state area. During this forecast period, the upper low will move to the south-southeast.
- Dry and slightly cooler than normal conditions are forecast Friday through much of the weekend.
Cronce Issued 314 AM CDT Thu May 8 2025 Today through Friday: Northeast winds remain breezy this morning as high pressure builds south behind yesterday's cold front. The continued north/northeast flow will support cooler temperatures today, with low to mid 60s inland and low to mid 50s near the lake. Overnight lows remain on track to bottom out in the low to mid 30s, and widespread frost is looking increasingly likely. High pressure will be overhead on Friday, setting the stage for what is looking to be a spectacular spring day, with highs in the mid to upper 60s to around 70.
A weak disturbance this morning may allow for isolated showers, otherwise an upper level ridge will begin to build over Western Washington today into Friday bringing a return to drier weather. Troughing over the Pacific will shift eastward this weekend, introducing a chance for showers.
High pressure will strengthen across the area for the remainder of the week, bringing a substantial warming trend heading into the upcoming weekend.
Surface analysis places the axis of a weakening ridge transecting the Florida Peninsula at this late morning hour. The low-level ridge axis continues to slowly migrate southward, evidenced by modestly rising geopotential heights below the 700 mb isobaric surface sampled in this morning's 12z sounding at KEY. Southeasterly steering flow and the abundant sunshine is promoting temperatures already warming into the lower to mid 80s across the Island Chain. For the balance of today, ridging, combined with a boundary layer scant of moisture, will support another dry day for the Keys. Temperatures should easily reach the advertised mid 80s, with the typical larger island communities likely reaching a few degrees warmer. From synopsis, an Atlantic ridge axis transecting the Florida Peninsula will shift southeastward over the next two days, as troughing develops over the Southeast.
The closed upper low continues to meander to the east this morning, currently centered over Missouri. Ascent remains weak across the area today as the upper low departs to the east, but a weak perturbation diving south across the area could provide enough lift for isolated to scattered showers and storms this afternoon and evening. Surface ridging takes control of the region tonight into Friday as the closed low is shunted south towards the Gulf Coast.
520 AM MDT Thu May 8 2025 - Warmer weather moves into the forecast area on Thursday and continues into the weekend.
A warmer Friday with widespread upper 60s to upper 70s looks likely.
651 AM EDT Thu May 8 2025 A cold front will progress south through the Ohio Valley Today, bringing showers and thunderstorms especially near and south of the Ohio River this afternoon and into the early evening before the front sinks into the Tennessee Valley, bringing cool and dry weather for Friday. Warmer conditions return this weekend. Per surface winds and dewpoints, main cold frontal boundary extending from central Indiana into the northern third of Ohio. Instability will be somewhat limited with the focus area to the south, but as the upper trough pivots through the region, some potential for a strong storm or two, generally south of the Ohio River, though the better 0-6km bulk shear and mid level lapse rates remain further south over central KY. On Friday evening, an upper trough / closed low will be moving east through Pennsylvania.
1029 AM EDT Thu May 8 2025 Cold front slowly crosses the Mid Atlantic between this afternoon and Friday morning.