Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
216 AM EST Thu Mar 6 2025 - Light snow showers and patchy freezing drizzle will diminish overnight. In combination with the precipitation, temperatures falling into the 20s overnight will cause refreezing of wet surfaces. Ragged/weakening upper low over ern ON on the way out. There has been a little patchy freezing drizzle mixing in with the light snow showers as we are losing our mid level moisture, however don't expect any major impacts given limited duration.
Temperatures have fallen into the middle 30s in Franklin County, and possibly the lower 30s atop the Cumberland Plateau in that county. However, with the precipitation ending before temperatures fall below freezing late tonight, we are not anticipating in any accumulation at this point.
245 AM EST Thu Mar 6 2025 Cool high pressure will build across through tonight and then off the Southeast US coast Friday.
Overall, the pattern will become more showery by this afternoon, and isolated thunderstorms will be possible across much of the lower elevations this afternoon and evening.
1101 PM CST Wed Mar 5 2025 - Windy and warmer weather is forecast for Thursday.
1141 PM CST Wed Mar 5 2025 (This evening through Thursday night) Deep longwave trough axis that extends from the Great Lakes down to central Florida is well east of the local area. Should see a nice drop in overnight lows with the combo of lowering dewpoints and weakening wind field as high pressure tracks overhead. As the trough ejects eastward into the Atlantic Ocean, a generally flat upper level flow pattern will be in place across the region. Slightly below normal temps Thursday will moderate to above normal Friday and 500mb heights increase from the trough shifting east.
236 AM CST Thu Mar 6 2025 - Windy and warmer weather is forecast for today.
1051 PM CST Wed Mar 5 2025 Updated aviation portion for 06Z TAF issuance - A hazardous evening commute is expected, largely due to high winds leading to blowing snow and low visibility, and slippery roads developing as road temps approaching freezing.
Many locations will see temperatures warming into the low 70s, which is about 10 to 15 degrees above normal! A brief high pressure system is expected to pass through the area today before drifting slowly east of the area tonight. As the high shifts east tonight and a low pressure system approaches from the Plains, expect moisture and cloud cover to increase through the night. The aformentioned low is expected to pass through northern portions of the Quad State as it weakens and drags a weak cold front through the rest of the area. Overall forcing looks to be fairly weak with the system; however, there will be just enough moisture and forcing in place near the low pressure center to touch off a few light rain showers Friday afternoon into Friday night.
- Low to medium (30-50%) rain chances this weekend with warmer temperatures. (Tonight through Friday Night) Much cooler temperatures tonight than this time last night. With the winds still so gusty, the feel-like temperatures are several degrees cooler than the actual air temperature with wind chill values in the 10s to low 20s. Outside of the snow, temperatures will continue to drop a few more degrees tonight with everyone dropping below freezing overnight. Thursday will feature temperatures a touch warmer as ridging quickly builds across the southeast. The upper-level ridge will start pushing east Friday, and return flow will result in warm air advection ushering in temperatures in the mid 60s.
Aloft, dry northwesterly flow is over the region and at the surface, high pressure will continue to reside over our region today, which should lead to a mostly sunny day across the CWFA.
Both ridging aloft and high pressure at the surface will continue building east into the region overnight. Clouds will also continue to exit eastern portions of the CWA tonight, as the low responsible for them lifts further northeast through the Great Lakes region and into eastern Canada. Despite some high clouds drifting southeast into the area toward day break Thursday, expect mostly clear skies through the night, with lows falling into the low and middle 30s. While this may limit frost potential and prevent temps from dipping as far as they might otherwise, cold advection will be sufficient for a low chance (10-35 percent) of temperatures dipping below freezing, especially for areas north of the I-20 corridor by daybreak tomorrow.
In the wake of yesterday's cold front, breezy northwest winds will continue today, gradually diminishing in the late afternoon and evening. This will advect in a cooler and drier airmass, with low humidity today and Friday under sunny skies.
Precipitation is filling in across SW Idaho and far SE Oregon this evening ahead of an upper low along coast. Latest batch of model data is keeping the northern/western boundary of precipitation across southern Harney and Malheur Counties in Oregon, extending northeastward through the lower Snake Plain (Caldwell area) and into the northern Boise mtns. An upper level ridge begins to build into the region as the system moves east on Friday.
Ridge across the western US puts North Dakota in a west to northwest flow pattern through the weekend. This ends up being a warming pattern for the most part with each day warmer than the previous.
The surface pressure gradient is loosening across the area as surface ridging begins to push in from the west, thus weakening winds. Thursday will be a mostly quiet day as upper level ridging quickly pushes through the Northern Plains. Given the above freezing high temperatures, precipitation will begin as rain late Thursday afternoon before transitioning to snow during the evening and overnight hours. While some very light snow is possible up to the interstate, the highest totals look to fall along the Missouri River Valley. This is due to upper level ridging over the western CONUS pushing eastwards into the Plains.
Discussion: Upper trough is situated from the Ohio valley SSE through the southern Appalachians and down towards roughly Savannah Georgia early this morning. Furthermore, surface temperatures even in the northern TN valley, are still just above freezing. They'll begin to let up late this afternoon from south to north as influence from approaching high pressure sets in. Could be some outlier areas in sheltered valleys that drop into the low 20s, but otherwise upper 20s to mid 30s seems reasonable.
932 PM CST Wed Mar 5 2025 - Warmer temperatures today and Friday, then considerably cooler over the weekend.
The combination of radar and satellite data has allowed us to watch a dry cold front track eastward across the Gulf. A weak and dry cold front will continue to transverse the forecast area overnight. From synopsis, a weak and dry cold front will continue to transverse the local waters overnight, and fresh to strong northwesterly breezes will build in. As the front exits to the east, a weak high pressure system will cross into the Gulf.
The highest snow totals, ranging from 2 to 5 inches, are still expected south of Leadore. High pressure is set to return on Friday, bringing above-average temperatures through the weekend.
A brief shot of cooler, near normal temperatures will return for the weekend.
349 AM EST Thu Mar 6 2025 Windy conditions are expected today between low pressure departing to the north and high pressure building in from the west.
Tomorrow will be warmer with highs in the 80s and 90s across much of the region.
419 AM EST Thu Mar 6 2025 Light snow is expected today, with most accumulation in the higher terrain where 2 to 4 inches is possible.
626 AM EST Thu Mar 6 2025 Strong low pressure over the Great Lakes will track northeast into Canada, with snow showers ending early and gusty winds slowly diminishing through the day. High pressure will offer a a short period of dry weather this afternoon into tonight. Precipitation will develop on Friday ahead of a progressive low pressure system that tracks from the Central Plains across the Ohio Valley Friday night. Cyclonic flow and a hang back surface trof was leading to snow showers early this morning. Air and pavement temperatures dropping below freezing will result in slick spots - especially on elevated surfaces. Isentropic lift develops ahead of this low in response to a 45-50Kt low level jet.
(Today through Friday) Large surface cyclone centered over southern Ontario and Quebec early this morning is forecast to move northward today, allowing high pressure to build into the southeast CONUS. Clear and calm conditions tonight will allow temps to drop into the 30s, and our normally colder microclimates in the north will likely see some sub-freezing readings.
With northwesterly flow aloft setting up across North Dakota along with ridging building in from the west, we can expect dry conditions, with little to no precipitation, as well as periodic breezy conditions each day.
521 AM CST Thu Mar 6 2025 (Today through Friday) Large surface cyclone centered over southern Ontario and Quebec early this morning is forecast to move northward today, allowing high pressure to build into the southeast CONUS. Clear and calm conditions tonight will allow temps to drop into the 30s, and our normally colder microclimates in the north will likely see some sub-freezing readings.
The clouds will continue to move off to the east today as the upper level trough axis moves off the Atlantic Coast. Expect afternoon temperatures to only climb into the low to mid 50s with a few upper 40s in the higher terrain areas.
Cooler and drier air continues to filter into the Florida peninsula this morning as the cold front pushes well east of the area and high pressure builds in from the northwest. The morning temps dipped into the 40's and 50's early this morning, with gusty northwest winds making it feel a tad cooler. High pressure moves eastward overnight allowing for the gradient to weaken, resulting in decreasing winds. A tight pressure gradient between a cold front east of Florida and high pressure building in from the northwest is producing gusty northwest winds over the eastern gulf waters.
Decided to adjust lows a few degrees this morning to account for that, with 30s over the entire region, and freezing temps extending as far south as areas just below the Interstate 20 corridor. Clouds will lower and thicken up during the day on Friday, as a warm front lifts north into the region ahead of the weak cool front. /20/ (Friday Night through Thursday) By late Friday evening, a closed upper-level trough will move into the Four Corners Region out of California, and will be pushing eastward towards the Southern Plains. Flow ahead of this trough will remain southwesterly over the region.
Otherwise as the low continues east we will continue to see light northerly flow across the Dakotas. An upper-level ridge starts to work its way east towards SD Friday evening.
437 AM CST Thu Mar 6 2025 - Windy and warmer weather is forecast for today.
405 AM EST Thu Mar 6 2025 Strong low pressure over the Great Lakes will track northeast into Canada, with snow showers ending early and gusty winds slowly diminishing through the day. High pressure will offer a a short period of dry weather this afternoon into tonight. Precipitation will develop on Friday ahead of a progressive low pressure system that tracks from the Central Plains across the Ohio Valley Friday night. Cyclonic flow and a hang back surface trof was leading to snow showers early this morning. Isentropic lift develops ahead of this low in response to a 45-50Kt low level jet.
Upper level low pressure will continue to affect the Great Basin over the next two days.
630 AM EST Thu Mar 6 2025 Light snow is expected today, with most accumulation in the higher terrain where 2 to 4 inches is possible.
- Low to medium (30-50%) rain chances this weekend with warmer temperatures. Today, drying conditions take hold through Friday as high pressure moves in over Middle TN. (Tonight through Friday Night) Much cooler temperatures tonight than this time last night. With the winds still so gusty, the feel-like temperatures are several degrees cooler than the actual air temperature with wind chill values in the 10s to low 20s. Outside of the snow, temperatures will continue to drop a few more degrees tonight with everyone dropping below freezing overnight. Thursday will feature temperatures a touch warmer as ridging quickly builds across the southeast. The upper-level ridge will start pushing east Friday, and return flow will result in warm air advection ushering in temperatures in the mid 60s.
945 AM EST Thu Mar 6 2025 Strong low pressure over the Great Lakes will track northeast into Canada, with snow showers ending early and gusty winds slowly diminishing through the day. High pressure will offer a a short period of dry weather this afternoon into tonight. Precipitation will develop on Friday ahead of a progressive low pressure system that tracks from the Central Plains across the Ohio Valley Friday night. Most precipitation associated with the departing trough has ended with the exception of a few flurries. Isentropic lift develops ahead of this low in response to a 45-50Kt low level jet.
A trough of low pressure moving down the West Coast is pushing a cold front across Arizona this morning.
643 AM EST Thu Mar 6 2025 - Roads and sidewalks may still be slippery early this morning due to the flash freeze of water and light snow or patchy freezing drizzle that occurred overnight. Ragged/weakening upper low over ern ON on the way out.
554 AM CST Thu Mar 6 2025 (Today through Friday Night) High pressure ridge was situated acrs the central and southern Plains States early this mrng. Look for even warmer temps on Fri, with highs ranging fm the mid 60s to the mid 70s.
Many locations will see temperatures warming into the low 70s, which is about 10 to 15 degrees above normal! Updated Aviation discussion for the 18z TAF issuance. A brief high pressure system is expected to pass through the area today before drifting slowly east of the area tonight. As the high shifts east tonight and a low pressure system approaches from the Plains, expect moisture and cloud cover to increase through the night. The aformentioned low is expected to pass through northern portions of the Quad State as it weakens and drags a weak cold front through the rest of the area. Overall forcing looks to be fairly weak with the system; however, there will be just enough moisture and forcing in place near the low pressure center to touch off a few light rain showers Friday afternoon into Friday night.
Dew points across the island chain dropped into the upper 50s with a couple of observations in the lower 50s, mainly in the Upper Keys. Weak high pressure moving into the northern Gulf will define weather for the first half of the weekend.
1139 AM CST Thu Mar 6 2025 - Windy and warmer weather is forecast for today.
To our west, a weakening area of low pressure will track from eastern CO into central KS in response to the motion of the southwestern CONUS mid-level trough. Low-level SE flow across the local area will gradually strengthen in response to this, and with the coverage of mid/high-level clouds expected to become broken-overcast, lows will be a bit warmer (l-m 30s).
Upper trough and associated LL refection now progressing through the Rockies with snow spreading east across the region. Expect decreasing clouds Friday with cool temps over snow pack areas, warmer across northeast areas.
Overnight lows dip to around seasonal normals, into the lower 40s F for most sites.
Post cold frontal conditions describe the morning weather over Key West. From synopsis, fresh breezes in the aftermath of a cold front will slacken briefly this afternoon across the Keys coastal waters. Despite weak high pressure building over the Gulf, an offshore wind surge west of the Florida Peninsula will result in a brief period of Small Craft Advisory conditions this evening. Weak high pressure remains in control through the weekend as it slides across Florida and into the western North Atlantic resulting in gentle to moderate breezes, occasionally light over the weekend.
(This afternoon through Friday) High pressure will slowly move east across the southeast through the day today and tonight. Low temperatures will be in the low to mid 30s in the north and the mid to upper 30s in the south. Winds will transition to out of the southeast behind the high pressure and ahead of this low, with moisture advection setting up over the state. Mid to high clouds should be across most of the area, though will allow for enough heating for temperatures to get into the upper 60s across the north and the lower 70s across the south.
The northern half of the state is now clear of the low stratus and fog. UPDATE The low stratus in the northwest turned into fog. With northwesterly flow aloft setting up across North Dakota along with ridging building in from the west, we can expect dry conditions, with little to no precipitation, as well as periodic breezy conditions each day.
1016 AM EST Thu Mar 6 2025 Light snow is expected today, with most accumulation in the higher terrain where 2 to 4 inches is possible.
125 PM EST Thu Mar 6 2025 Windy conditions will continue through this evening between low pressure departing to the north and high pressure building in from the west.
upper level trough. For p-type, forecast soundings indicate several hours cold enough for wet snow over the far north overnight, through with warm ground and boundary layer temps near to just above freezing, we do not expect any impact on roadways, more likely a light coating of a half inch or less on elevated/grassy surfaces. Farther south into central IL, rain/snow mix or plain rain is more likely where profiles are slightly warmer and lift is weaker or more transient. High temps on Friday to be a challenge given track of the low and cloud cover, and likely a tight gradient over central IL from near 40F north to mid 50s south of I-70.
Ragged/weakening upper low over ern ON on the way out. Gusty northwest winds will also quickly diminish into this evening as low level ridging settles in.
This low will be weakening as it arrives with most of the forcing aloft in the mid-levels. Model soundings show overnight temperatures near freezing so if any precipitation falls there could be some north to south precipitation type differences with the potential for some snow to mix in at times, but confidence that any precipitation falls is fairly low as the precipitating layer is aloft with some drier air closer to the surface. Will focus the highest POPs across the northern counties, but don't have the confidence to go any higher than chance wording. The low levels briefly begin to saturate towards daybreak tomorrow before the surface flow becomes more southerly which will advect drier air at the surface with saturation back towards the mid-levels again.
As the cyclonic rotation around the exiting upper trough over the northeast United States lifts northeast and drier air advection, sky will become clear. Given that temperatures are much cooler than expected this afternoon will go a little lower than guidance most locations for the lows.
Low pressure will pass south of the state Friday night, generating some light snow in the Laurel Highlands and a rain/snow mix for the southern Alleghenies. Otherwise, high pressure moves in over the weekend. The tilting upper trough axis which is overhead right now swings off to the east early tonight. The temps will be marginal for rain/snow across much of the area, but the highlands should have all snow. This should produce a 1-3" snowfall over the highest elevs of the Laurels, but an inch or less in the rest of the mtns.
The low stratus in the northwest turned into fog. With northwesterly flow aloft setting up across North Dakota along with ridging building in from the west, we can expect dry conditions, with little to no precipitation, as well as periodic breezy conditions each day.
Precipitation continues to wrap around an upper level low positioned along the NV/UT border this morning. The back edge of the precipitation is shifting south and east this morning and will slowly continue this progression as the upper level low works eastward.
640 PM EDT Tue Apr 23 2024 High pressure moves off the coast tonight.
732 PM EDT Tue Apr 23 2024 High pressure over the Southeast Coast will give way to a weak cold front moving down from the north.
Warmer temperatures are anticpated tonight through tomorrow ahead of the frontal passage tomorrow night.
A crossing cold front will increase precipitation chances tonight and early tomorrow. KEY MESSAGES: - Showers arrive tonight with a passing cold front. ------------------------------------------------------------------ Shower chances increase in pre-frontal convergence and along a passing cold front this evening and overnight tonight. Wouldn't rule out a few rumbles of thunder overnight, especially toward daybreak as mid-level drier air noted on water vapor imagery and the core of a 500 mb thermal trough slide overhead and allow for some modest instability to develop with latest hi res ensemble guidance placing 100-200 J/kg of CAPE, especially north of Pittsburgh. The best chance (40-50%) to exceed a quarter of an inch will be along the ridges with upslope enhancement.
Slightly cooler and breezy weather Wednesday will give way to cooler, unsettled conditions for the second half of the week.
312 PM MDT Tue Apr 23 2024 KEY MESSAGES: 1) An upper ridge will remains over the area on Wednesday with dry weather and warmer temperatures.
- Turning warmer and active by the end of the week through the upcoming weekend, with potential for rounds of showers and storms. The NBM has temperatures dropping to and just below freezing in northwest Illinois.
942 PM EDT Tue Apr 23 2024 A mid-level trough and a cold front will bring rain to the area this evening.
(Wednesday night through next Tuesday) By Wednesday evening, the upper ridge will be moving east, with southwest flow moving in behind it.
Expect daytime highs generally in the low 80s with overnight lows generally in the low to mid 50s.
212 PM PDT Tue Apr 23 2024 Cooler thru mid-week along with a chance for afternoon showers and thunderstorms over the mountains.
This is thanks to a weak late season cold front that moved through yesterday evening. High pressure spread out across the Southeast coast has maintained a tightened gradient across the forecast area this evening. The area of high pressure will begin to elongate overnight, which will cause the gradient to lessen.
High pressure will build in from the north thereafter but not really bring a cooldown. Much warmer tonight compared to last night as well mixed boundary layer keep temperatures within a few degrees of climo, upper 40s to around 50 in most areas. At this latitude, we are expecting to see a glancing influence from this trough with small height falls and weak warm advection ahead of its associated cold front. Backdoor cold front will be sagging through the area at the start of the period.
Shower and thunderstorm chances will begin to increase north of I-20, as the region comes under the influence of a cold front moving through the Midwest.
443 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024 - High pressure will bring dry conditions to the region for Wednesday resulting in near-critical fire weather conditions.
658 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024 A weak cold front will bring a low chance of showers to the region late tonight through tomorrow morning.
618 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024 - Many chances for showers and thunderstorms through the weekend with severe weather potential during several of them Elevated shower and thunderstorm activity has shifted east as the upper wave and associated weak cold front moved east and south respectively.