Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
The synoptic pattern remains largely unchanged this afternoon with an upper ridge extending from the southwest US into the northern and central Plains and an area of cutoff energy across the southern Plains.
1117 AM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024 (Today through Saturday) BRO radar currently shows scattered to numerous convection across the Lower Texas coastal waters. Some of this convection along the coast may reach portions of the Lower Rio Grande Valley before daybreak.
1014 AM MDT Fri Jul 26 2024 Welcomed cooler temperatures across the area this morning with a weak upper trough over the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies.
The NAM fills in the CWA with precip coverage much of Saturday, though accumulation will generally be on the lower side.
1231 PM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024 (Rest of Today) The central TN Valley this morning is sandwiched between an upr low to our west and upr ridge to our south. Showers and some thunderstorms have been ongoing this morning largely to our W-NW, along low/mid level convergent axes in association with the upr trough. The heavier activity just to our NW may be aided by a narrow low-lvl jet in between the low-lvl low/high, but also aided in part by somewhat favorable upr jet dynamics. Training of cells in the high moisture content conditions will create a marginal risk for flash flooding, mainly in urban and poor drainage locations.
(Now through Saturday) The forecast area remains in a broad southwest flow aloft between a trough to our northwest and an upper ridge to the southeast. Showers and thunderstorms will redevelop on Saturday with the highest coverage during the late morning and afternoon.
High temperatures are expected to reach the lower to mid 80s. /SW/ Slightly cooler and wetter conditions persist today as we remain under SW flow regime. We finally see a change in the upper pattern as high pressure begins to build in from the SE this weekend. It will still be wet, however with an upper low cut off over the Ozarks, keeping SW flow over our area through the weekend.
Deep tropical moisture will continue to stream north mainly into a weak trough found from central Miss to SW LA and down the coastal bend of TX.
The trough axis is expected to remain off to the west of the ArkLaMiss, keeping rainfall/rain chances in the area with overnight lows in the lower 70s. For Saturday, the trough axis will gradually push towards the northwest; however southwestern flow will continue to push gulf moisture into the region.
210 PM EDT Fri Jul 26 2024 High pressure will provide mostly clear and dry conditions through Saturday night.
------------------------------------------------------------------- Smoke aloft will gradually clear to the south tonight, giving way to clear skies under subsidence and high pressure. KEY MESSAGES: - Remaining dry but becoming warmer. ------------------------------------------------------------------- High confidence ridging builds for most of the short term period as an upper low cuts off to our east and troughing digs to our west maintaining dry weather locally.
1228 PM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024 (Today through Saturday) The upper level trough axis will remain situated near the I-35 corridor today. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are forecast today near and just west of the trough axis, with scattered coverage to the east across the Coastal Plains. On Saturday the southern end of the upper level trough axis may drift slightly west.
Mid/upper-level high pressure remains over the region this afternoon with a trough swinging through the northeast U.
707 PM EDT Fri Jul 26 2024 (Rest of today through Saturday) A tropical upper tropospheric trough (TUTT) lingers around the Bahamas and Cuba this weekend while a ridge of Atlantic high pressure sits over Central Florida. As we kick off the weekend, the front will come into phase with a deep-layered trough over the northeastern United States which could cause the front to advance south and east, pinching the ridge back a bit into the Atlantic. Temperatures remain warm with maximums in the lower to mid 90s and minimums ranging from the mid 70s inland to the lower 80s along the east coast urban heat island. Heat index values will reach the triple digits and the few degrees warmer Saturday compared to today could lead to a Heat Advisory becoming necessary.
914 PM EDT Fri Jul 26 2024 High pressure and dry conditions will be in place through Saturday.
Our >2in PWAT airmass will remain in place and mid evening satellite imagery/RAP analysis still showed a sharp upper level trough to our west that wl serve to maintain sw flow aloft. The trough axis is expected to remain off to the west of the ArkLaMiss, keeping rainfall/rain chances in the area with overnight lows in the lower 70s. For Saturday, the trough axis will gradually push towards the northwest; however southwestern flow will continue to push gulf moisture into the region.
This is due to a broad surface Atlantic ridge stretching across Florida. Short Term Update - The surface through lower level ridge will weaken some as it gets squeezed by falling pressures off the Carolina Coast. Overall, ridging will remain the dominant feature and limit convective forcing and the steering flow will be fairly weak. Expect near normal overnight lows in the lower to mid 80s and dew points remaining in the mid 70s. A sloppy surface Atlantic ridge will remain across the Florida Peninsula overnight.
617 PM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024 (This evening through Saturday) Over the next 24 hours, an upper level low will remain across East Texas, with an upper level ridge across the Southwest U. An isolated showers or thunderstorm is possible in our far southeast counties Saturday afternoon, closer to the aforementioned upper level low, but overall most locations should remain dry.
Showers and isolated thunderstorms are in the forecast Saturday, with the highest chance in Twin Falls and Jerome counties.
646 PM EDT Fri Jul 26 2024 High pressure and dry conditions will be in place through Saturday.
The only exception is lingering convection just north of Glynn County that spawned ahead of a cold front well north and east of the area.
707 PM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024 (This evening through Saturday Night) Upper-level trough that has brought copious amounts of rainfall to the region over the past several days will retrograde northwest tonight. High temperatures on Saturday will remain seasonably cool in the lower to middle 80s due to increased rainfall and cloud-cover.
627 PM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024 (This evening through Saturday) An upper-level ridge was centered over Southern California this afternoon, with an axis extending up to the northern Great Plains. Meanwhile, positively-tilted troughing was located over Texas, placing the forecast area under NNE flow aloft. As an upper low crossing into Saskatchewan continues to move eastward, the ridge should flatten and begin to gradually shift eastward through the period while the trough in TX ejects to the northeast on Saturday.
600 PM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024 (This afternoon through Saturday night) Mid level ridging will continue to expand across the region leading to increasing temperatures each day.
An upper low pressure will be lifting up into AR from TX on Saturday, with some potential for showers and storms late tonight over far E OK and NW AR.
739 PM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024 (Remainder of this Afternoon and Tonight) The forecast area remains located in between a trough and associated vort maxima to our west and an upr ridge to our SE.
702 PM EDT Fri Jul 26 2024 - Enjoyable weather tonight and Saturday as an area of high pressure keeps us dry with highs in the low to mid 80's.
A weak upper level trough remains through the weekend.
(Rest of tonight) The area remains situated between a mid-level trough to the northwest over the AR/OK border and ridge centered over the northern Gulf of Mexico. Moist, southwesterly flow is the result across the TN Valley which will only increase going into the weekend as trough begins to lift northward late tonight.
For Saturday, the weakening mid/upper level high will be located across southern Arizona and that will result in a weaker steering flow pattern for us.
947 PM EDT Fri Jul 26 2024 High pressure will dominate through the weekend resulting in tranquil and comfortable conditions.
616 PM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024 (This evening through Saturday night) Weak upper level troughing continues east of our region during the short term period. Meanwhile the upper ridge will build back in and place itself firmly over the south central CONUS by the start of the new week. By or after midnight tonight, a few isolated showers and thunderstorms may generate off of the incoming trough across central portions of the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles.
On Sunday a trough tracks from the Great Basin to the Northern Rockies bringing a midlevel dry punch into the region from the southwest.
1228 AM CDT Sat Jul 27 2024 (This afternoon through Saturday night) Mid level ridging will continue to expand across the region leading to increasing temperatures each day.
By Sunday, high pressure will begin to build into the area ending rain chances, but there is still some question about when precipitation will come to an end.
1128 PM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024 (This evening through Saturday night) The area remains between an upper level high centered just east of the forecast area and an upper level height low or weakness over the Midsouth with the H5 trough extending from Mexico to the northeastern U.
Daily afternoon temperatures in the upper 80s and 90s with dew points in the low 70s will result in late afternoon heat index values in the mid 90s to near 100 degrees. Lows tonight will be on the warm side of average in the low 70s.
1106 PM EDT Fri Jul 26 2024 Another round of scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected today as a cold front tracks across the western Carolinas.
A few cirrus streamers also make it around the mid level ridge and down from the northern Great Lakes and Ontario. Near-surface anti-cyclone is currently centered in the vicinity of Southern Lake Huron - bringing mainly sunny conditions with light southeasterly winds. The exception will be warmer inland bodies of water - where lows in the upper 50s may establish some lake-induced patch fog. The influence of the upper-level ridging will continue through the weekend - reintroducing typical mid-summer conditions. An increase in high clouds will occur on Saturday as some cirrus cascades about the upper ridge axis. Moisture levels will on the increase during the afternoon hours as a weak wave trapped within the longwave ridge inches closer to the Great Lakes Region.
A mid/upper level ridge is situated over the eastern Gulf of Mexico with the Bermuda high centered to the east-northeast of Florida across the western Atlantic. Mostly dry weather is forecast overnight with light and variable winds, as well as low temperatures in the low to upper 70s.
The combination of air temperatures in the 80s and dew points in the low to mid 70s has pushed heat indices into the upper 90s/low 100s from Stevens to Yellow Medicine counties, with multiple hours of warming ahead. Most locations across in central Minnesota, including most of the Twin Cities Metro, are forecast to climb into the low 90s Saturday afternoon. Locations in southeast Minnesota and western Wisconsin may top out a few degrees cooler, in the upper 80s. Warm air aloft and a lack of forcing will work against precipitation chances for much of Saturday, however the eastward advance of the low-level jet will be the focus for convection Saturday night.
The mid level low moves through the Mississippi River Valley tonight, opening up and merging with troughing over the northern CONUS Sunday. This will push a trough axis eastward across the area, suppressing mid level ridging to the Gulf coast. With increased rain chances and cloud cover, highs will be in the lower 80s to lower 90s.
Accompanying the drier air will be locally breezy afternoon southwest winds and slightly cooler temperatures. Temperatures will be slightly cooler as a trough of low pressure passes by towards the north.
354 AM EDT Sat Jul 27 2024 Warm, comfortable, and dry this weekend as high pressure remains parked over the region. ------------------------------------------------------------------- Slow 500mb height rises expected today as upper level ridge drifts over the upper Midwest.
For tonight, convection will gradually diminish after sunset with overnight lows generally in the low to mid 70s.
A weak upper low is moving into northern Cal and it'sd starting to take on a negative tilt. The aforementioned upper low will move towards Modoc County Saturday morning and over Modoc County Saturday afternoon.
1222 AM CDT Sat Jul 27 2024 (This evening through Saturday) An upper-level ridge was centered over Southern California this afternoon, with an axis extending up to the northern Great Plains. Meanwhile, positively-tilted troughing was located over Texas, placing the forecast area under NNE flow aloft. As an upper low crossing into Saskatchewan continues to move eastward, the ridge should flatten and begin to gradually shift eastward through the period while the trough in TX ejects to the northeast on Saturday.
Also, cannot rule out a brief morning shower or weak storm close to Ponca City and Stillwater close to evolving upper low. Other isolated thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon east of I-35, closer to upper low near northeast Oklahoma.
/Issued 1152 PM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024/ /Through Saturday Night/ The weak upper trough responsible for the relatively cool and unsettled weather we have been experiencing for the past week or so will hang on one more day before it lifts to the northeast on Sunday. /NEW/ /Sunday Onward/ After one more day with rain chances and cooler temperatures to finish out the weekend, a more typical summer-like pattern of hot and dry weather will prevail the rest of the week. North and Central Texas will remain under some influence of an upper level trough for one more day as it gradually departs to the northeast and becomes an open wave.
Discussion: Upper-level ridge axis will be across the region today with troughing across the Mid-Atlantic and the Great Plains.
A weak upper level trough remains over western Washington through the weekend.
1228 AM CDT Sat Jul 27 2024 (This evening through Saturday) Over the next 24 hours, an upper level low will remain across East Texas, with an upper level ridge across the Southwest U. An isolated showers or thunderstorm is possible in our far southeast counties Saturday afternoon, closer to the aforementioned upper level low, but overall most locations should remain dry.
/19/ (This evening through Saturday Night) Upper-level trough that has brought copious amounts of rainfall to the region over the past several days will retrograde northwest tonight. High temperatures on Saturday will remain seasonably cool in the lower to middle 80s due to increased rainfall and cloud-cover.
Current upper air analysis shows a ridge over the Desert Southwest with a trough over Central Texas leaving West Texas and eastern New Mexico in a northeasterly flow with relatively low 500mb heights. The trough lifts off to the northeast beginning Sunday allowing the ridge to the west to build east into the Central Plains. The increasing subsidence will cause temperatures to increase from seasonal highs in the low to mid 90s to upper 90s and low 100s Sunday.
High pressure, centered east of the region, will continue to slowly drift east over the next 24 to 48 hours. As noted by the previous shift, the somewhat drier conditions across the area combined with the ridging over the area may either prevent or limit the coverage of any showers/storms despite increasing instability.
Unsettled and cooler weather returns the beginning of the new work week. With high pressure still in control over the central Appalachians, most of Sunday should be dry. Hot conditions are expected with high temperatures reaching the 90s across the lowlands and the upper 80s in the mountains. A trough will approach from the west late Sunday, which may bring isolated showers and thunderstorms across northeast Kentucky and southwest Virginia late afternoon and evening. Key Points: * Turning cooler and more unsettled for the new work week.
On Sunday, the flow aloft becomes a little more northwesterly as the upper high moves eastward across southern New Mexico.
Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Mid-upper level ridging just upstream at this early hour shifts overhead through the day today before ever so slowly beginning to push off to the east tonight. Otherwise, aforementioned ridge overhead and southwest winds will aid to boost temperatures another handful of degrees over yesterday's highs. A touch cooler in the U.
123 AM EDT Sat Jul 27 2024 - Enjoyable weather tonight and Saturday as an area of high pressure keeps us dry with highs in the low to mid 80's.
Daily high temperatures in the upper 80s and 90s with dew points in the low 70s will result in late afternoon heat index values in the mid 90s to near 100 degrees.
1144 PM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024 (Rest of tonight) The area remains situated between a mid-level trough to the northwest over the AR/OK border and ridge centered over the northern Gulf of Mexico. Moist, southwesterly flow is the result across the TN Valley which will only increase going into the weekend as trough begins to lift northward late tonight.
1155 PM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024 (This evening through Saturday night) Weak upper level troughing continues east of our region during the short term period. Meanwhile the upper ridge will build back in and place itself firmly over the south central CONUS by the start of the new week. By or after midnight tonight, a few isolated showers and thunderstorms may generate off of the incoming trough across central portions of the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles.
127 AM EDT Sat Jul 27 2024 - Enjoyable weather tonight and Saturday as an area of high pressure keeps us dry with highs in the low to mid 80's.
The only exception is lingering convection just north of Glynn County that spawned ahead of a cold front well north and east of the area. High temperatures for the weekend will be in the lower to mid 90s for inland areas and in the upper 80s along the coast. Overnight low temperatures dropping down into the lower 70s.
The large scale pattern features strong ridging extending from the southwestern CONUS across the Great Lakes. SW flow aloft is currently in place on the northwest side of this feature ahead of a mid/upper low over Saskatchewan.
215 AM MDT Sat Jul 27 2024 KEY MESSAGES: - Steady temperatures through Sunday, creeping closer to the low 100s by the start of August.
345 AM EDT Sat Jul 27 2024 Weak high pressure will remain to our north through early Sunday, before becoming established offshore Sunday afternoon. Weak high pressure will remain to our north through early Sunday supporting clear skies, low humidity, and near normal temperatures in the upper 80s and lows in the mid to upper 60s. High pressure center shifts offshore Sunday afternoon with winds shifting to a more southerly direction resulting in a warming trend with highs climbing into the low 90s.
118 AM CDT Sat Jul 27 2024 (This evening through Sunday) H500 low will continue to slowly rotate its way toward the N/NE through the short term between ridges of high pressure to the west and southeast of the region.
Aloft, the trough is still over the central CONUS with one ridge over the SW and another over the Gulf. Over the period, we will see an expansions of the upper ridges over the CWA. At the surface we have an area of high pressure off to the NE of here, with southerly to southeasterly flow prevailing.
The high pressure over us weakens the steering flow, so any storms that develop would be slow moving which poses a localized flooding risk. Temperatures for the near term will be in the low 90s for the afternoon highs, and overnight lows will be in the mid 70s. (Saturday night through Sunday night) Weak ridging remains in place Sunday, but a backdoor cold front will be close to our area which may provide some local enhancement to rain chances Sunday afternoon.
The synoptic pattern remains largely unchanged this afternoon with an upper ridge extending from the southwest US into the northern and central Plains and an area of cutoff energy across the southern Plains. Flow across the central Plains becomes quasi-zonal Sunday into the middle of the week as the ridge builds east over the southern Plains. A perturbation along the northern fringe of the ridge will eject east Sunday evening-night and increase thunderstorm chances.
Tonight, the parent upper level low centered over northeast Oklahoma lifts northeast, while an inverted upper level trough pinches off across Coahulia, Rio Grande Plains, and southern Edwards Plateau. This inverted trough is forecast to lift northwest Sunday into Sunday night. Slightly warmer temperatures are forecast Sunday across central and eastern areas.
For the weekend we will have ridging overhead that will slowly shift to the Gulf of Mexico.
134 AM EDT Sat Jul 27 2024 Warm, comfortable and dry this weekend as high pressure remains parked over the region. Slow 500mb height rises expected today as upper level ridge drifts over the upper Midwest.
(Today through Sunday) Water vapor imagery this morning shows the broad upper-level trough axis finally shifting to the east as ridging begins to build to our south. Thanks to the ridging building overhead today, storm chances will decrease today. The ridge will be short lived though as a trough moves across the Midwest. This trough will bring more storm coverage as we head into the new work week.
320 AM CDT Sat Jul 27 2024 Today and tonight: Midlevel trough to the northwest and building high pressure over the northern Gulf will maintain SW flow regime over our area today and continued rain chances.
121 AM EDT Sat Jul 27 2024 High pressure and dry conditions will be in place through tonight. High pressure will continue to bring dry conditions to the region Saturday and Saturday night. Slightly warmer conditions will be in place for Saturday and Saturday night with highs in the 80s and lows in the 60s.
An upper ridge persisting overhead will again yield similar weather today as yesterday with mostly sunny skies and highs in the mid 90s.
(Today) A weak upper low near the Oklahoma/Arkansas border will drift slowly north today.
355 AM EDT Sat Jul 27 2024 High pressure builds over the region today and tonight, then remains Sunday.
(Saturday through Sunday) Upper trough axis has maybe drifted a little further to the north and west over the last 24 hours.
1258 AM EDT Sat Jul 27 2024 Warm, comfortable and dry this weekend as high pressure remains parked over the region. Slow 500mb height rises expected today as upper level ridge drifts over the upper Midwest.
Low pressure moves into western and central SD again this afternoon and evening. A lull in any widespread precip may occur Sunday morning before redevelopment is expected during the afternoon and evening as a warm front drapes itself from the Black Hills to the Sisseton hills Sunday afternoon. Southerly flow ahead of the low will keep llm up with dewpoints at least in the 60s.
911 AM EDT Sat Jul 27 2024 Warm, comfortable, and dry this weekend as high pressure remains parked over the region. Slow 500mb height rises expected today as upper level ridge drifts over the upper Midwest.
Accompanying the drier air will be locally breezy afternoon southwest winds and slightly cooler temperatures. An axis of high pressure aloft extended just off the northern Baja California coast to across Colorado during the early morning, shifted a bit further south than 24 hours ago. At the same time, a trough was moving across western Canada and the Pacific Northwest states. Under the influence of the trough to the north the high will continue to shift southward. The shift of the high will allow a drier westerly flow to move over the area for a shutdown of monsoon activity over much of northern and central Arizona.