Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Also this evening, a final wing of 500 mb PVA around the northern side of a gradually exiting upper level low centered over the Ohio Valley will produce a wave of light showers progressing southeast to northeast across southeastern to east- central Wisconsin. Low clouds associated with the showers will slowly whittle away Monday afternoon as the upper low exits eastward.
High pressure will settle into the region today, as a closed low remains over the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. Meanwhile, a trough digging along the West Coast will continue to amplify, eventually becoming a closed low over the Four Corners Region. The low to the west will move slowly eastward during the first part of the work week, with a ridge building over the region.
The southerly winds will persist on Monday within this gradient as a cold front approaches the region from the west/northwest, keeping the above normal temperatures going on Monday and even into Monday night.
pdf Weak cold front looks to be near a line from Jesup GA to the Suwannee Valley area around Live Oak this afternoon. In the next 2-4 hours, best forcing likely will come from the east coast sea breeze / low level troughing generally along a corridor from Fernandina Beach to Flagler Beach. By sunrise Monday, the cold front will have moved off to a line from off the southeast GA coast to JAX metro to GNV and to near or just south of Cross City. Becoming cooler with lows able to bottom out 55-60 from inland southeast GA to the Suwannee Valley and lower 60s elsewhere.
Updated at 1103 AM CDT Sun May 4 2025 - Rain chances will continue tonight and tomorrow with cooler temperatures to start the week.
and will allow for high pressure to build back in. Breezes are expected to gradually freshen heading into mid week as the Atlantic ridge lifts northward into Florida and pressures fall in the Gulf.
A trough axis associated with an upper-level low in the Mid-Atlantic region is propagating across the Florida peninsula today.
Temperatures are trending a bit warmer this morning across much of the area, with mid to upper 60s across a large part of the region. Updates to MaxT and RH were needed to reflect the current trends, which favor the warmer CAMs and NBM 90th percentile thus far. 500 mb ridge is over the area today into Monday before a short wave trough moving east thru Canada flattens the ridge temporarily before it builds back late week Thu-Fri.
247 PM EDT Sun May 4 2025 (This afternoon through Monday) Key Messages: - Cooler than average temperatures - Isolated showers possible across far north Georgia today and tomorrow afternoon due to wrap-around moisture In the wake of yesterday's cold frontal passage, much of the Southeast will remain situated on the southern edge of a (very) slowly lifting mid-level closed low.
The cold front that previously moved through S TX, will lift north as a warm front. As the warm front lifts north, it will interact with the short wave as it moves northeast across S TX. The warm front is progged to stall and meander across S TX through MOnday night, maintaining a 20-40% chance of precip. With the warm front lifting into the area and stalling, forecasting highs for Monday will be a bit tricky. For now, Monday's highs are expected to be a bit warmer across the Brush Country with mid 80s to low 90s.
207 PM EDT Sun May 4 2025 Slow moving low pressure will keep periods of showers in the forecast through mid week, with temperatures trending warmer. A cold front will help bring in drier air toward the end of the week as high pressure builds in, along with a slight cooling trend. High pressure will drift east across Quebec tonight. This will allow the low over the Ohio Valley to start slowly meandering north- northeastward. There will likely be a strip of enhanced instability across western New York, associated with diurnal heating and cold air aloft from approaching upper level low. A large closed upper low over the Ohio Valley slowly churns east towards the mid-Alantic bringing continued unsettle weather through atleast mid-week.
311 PM EDT Sun May 4 2025 * Upper level low will continue to slowly move through the region today and Monday bringing cloudy skies and periods of showers.
/86/ High pressure remains in control through tonight into Monday. Afternoon highs Monday will moderate toward more seasonal values, rising into the mid/upper 70s F for most, and around 80 F along the highway 84 corridor.
- Aside from the low-end chance for a shower Monday, we will remain largely dry until at least midweek. Our weather will be fully influenced by the cutoff upper low that is situated southeast of the forecast area, just south of Lake Michigan. Thus, we will continue to see a barrage of mid to high clouds through today, with more LLVL moisture moving in tonight and tomorrow, allow for a resurgence of the lower stratus deck. Tomorrow, daytime temperatures will be quite similar to today, with most in the low-mid 60s. We currently have the Omega Block overhead, with a cutoff low to our east and high pressure building west, over the Central US.
The local area is currently experiencing NW flow aloft between a ridge across the Central US and a large closed low over the OH valley, which is part of a large omega blocking pattern over the CONUS. At the surface, a ~1018mb area of high pressure centered over the Central Plains extends its ridge influence into the Southern Plains and Lower MS Valley.
Upper ridging prevails today as a blocking pattern continues to impact the central CONUS. Heading into Monday, the H5 ridge moves slightly east as an upper low approaches from the west.
- Cool and showery weather will persist through Monday before warmer/drier conditions return by the middle and end of the week. A pair of cutoff upper lows will drive the weather across the country much of the upcoming week. This afternoon, one upper low continues to meander over portions of the mid Ohio River Valley while a second upper low is moving onshore over southern California. This afternoon through Monday afternoon, the upper low over the Ohio Valley will meander over the same area producing a continued chance for showers and possibly an isolated storm or two over much of central Illinois. Convection closest to the low center in east central and southeast Illinois may be quite slow moving and capable of producing locally heavy rain.
The omega blocking pattern remains aloft for Monday though this pattern will begin to break down. With upper level ridging over the forecast area, skies will remain clear with high temperatures again warming to the 70s to up to about 80F. Given the highly amplified local upper level pattern, these showers and storms will be moving from south to north and avoid our area entirely. The omega blocking pattern begins to break down for the middle and end of the week as it transitions to a rex block.
742 PM EDT Sun May 4 2025 A trough axis associated with an upper-level low in the Mid-Atlantic region is propagating across the Florida peninsula today.
646 PM CDT Sun May 4 2025 (Tonight) Current temperatures are mainly in the upper 50s to lower 60s across the Tennessee Valley, with highs remaining on track to warm into the lower to mid 60s later this afternoon.
(Through Monday) Behind a cold front this morning, a much drier air mass is spreading in from the northwest.
1008 PM EDT Sun May 4 2025 A large upper level low will remain over the Ohio Valley through Monday, as a nearly stationary trailing surface cold front holds over the central Carolinas.
636 PM CDT Sun May 4 2025 Updated at 633 PM CDT Sun May 4 2025 - Rain chances will continue tonight and tomorrow with cooler temperatures to start the week.
724 PM EDT Sun May 4 2025 (Through Monday) Behind a cold front this morning, a much drier air mass is spreading in from the northwest.
Showers, thunderstorms, and much cooler than normal temperatures will persist through Monday for much of the area as a strong storm system continues to impact the area. However, as the afternoon progressed - particularly across our southern zones that are closer to the center of the low - storm movement halted to 5 mph or slower, which resulted in flash flooding along State Route 62 in southeastern San Bernardino as well as along local roads west of Barstow. Much cooler than normal temperatures will be the norm for today and tomorrow as we reside on the cool side of the trough.
- Dry with warmer than normal temperatures through much of the week.
558 PM CDT Sun May 4 2025 Updated at 554 PM CDT Sun May 4 2025 - Rain chances will continue tonight and tomorrow with cooler temperatures to start the week.
Weak cold front looks to be near a line from Jesup GA to the Suwannee Valley area around Live Oak this afternoon. In the next 2-4 hours, best forcing likely will come from the east coast sea breeze / low level troughing generally along a corridor from Fernandina Beach to Flagler Beach. By sunrise Monday, the cold front will have moved off to a line from off the southeast GA coast to JAX metro to GNV and to near or just south of Cross City. Becoming cooler with lows able to bottom out 55-60 from inland southeast GA to the Suwannee Valley and lower 60s elsewhere.
304 PM MDT Sun May 4 2025 - Scattered showers and thunderstorms over the mountains and western foothills this evening and overnight as a cold front drops into the area.
Looks like the lowest vis will be in the valleys and near bodies of water that are much warmer than the surrounding air later tonight. Monday should be a fairly nice day as the low slides to our east a little bit more, but will continue to provide a northerly flow into the area, keeping the area on the cooler side of normal (roughly 7 to 10 degrees).
Lows across the area will be in the 40s, and the higher elevations of north Georgia could see temps closer to 40. (This afternoon through Monday) Key Messages: - Cooler than average temperatures - Isolated showers possible across far north Georgia today and tomorrow afternoon due to wrap-around moisture In the wake of yesterday's cold frontal passage, much of the Southeast will remain situated on the southern edge of a (very) slowly lifting mid-level closed low.
555 PM CDT Sun May 4 2025 - A slow moving upper low will continue to result in occasional showers (50-95% chance east of I-55, 20-40% chance west) across central Illinois along with below normal temperatures through Monday.
905 PM EDT Sun May 4 2025 No changes to the forecast this evening as an upper low continues to sit over KY and southern IN, with vort lobes rotating around it that bring some showers to our area. Main culprit are the low freezing level and good mid-level lapse rates. For Tonight, upper trough will continue to move slowly east across the Kentucky with plenty of low level clouds over the area. Even mid to upper 30s over the higher elevations of the Smoky Mountains. Main forcing is due to increasing QG-forcing wrapping around the upper low.
648 PM CDT Sun May 4 2025 High pressure remains in control through tonight into Monday. Afternoon highs Monday will moderate toward more seasonal values, rising into the mid/upper 70s F for most, and around 80 F along the highway 84 corridor.
951 PM EDT Sun May 4 2025 Slow moving low pressure will keep periods of showers in the forecast through mid week, with temperatures trending warmer. A cold front will help bring in drier air toward the end of the week as high pressure builds in, along with a slight cooling trend. High pressure will drift east across Quebec tonight. This will allow the low over the Ohio Valley to start slowly meandering north- northeastward. There will likely be a strip of enhanced instability across western New York, associated with diurnal heating and cold air aloft from approaching upper level low. A large closed upper low over the Ohio Valley slowly churns east towards the mid-Alantic bringing continued unsettle weather through atleast mid-week.
625 PM CDT Sun May 4 2025 High pressure will settle into the region today, as a closed low remains over the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. Meanwhile, a trough digging along the West Coast will continue to amplify, eventually becoming a closed low over the Four Corners Region. The low to the west will move slowly eastward during the first part of the work week, with a ridge building over the region.
(This afternoon through Monday) Key Messages: - Cooler than average temperatures - Isolated showers possible across far north Georgia today and tomorrow afternoon due to wrap-around moisture In the wake of yesterday's cold frontal passage, much of the Southeast will remain situated on the southern edge of a (very) slowly lifting mid-level closed low.
741 PM EDT Sun May 4 2025 - Warmer and drier than normal period continues into the work week. Temperatures across the interior of the UP are climbing into the 60s, with the interior- western UP climbing even higher into the lower 70s. A moderating airmass will have temperatures coming in warmer than last night, with lows ranging in the upper 30s to lower 40s. We start off the work week with midlevel ridging over the Upper Great Lakes and stacked low pressure over the Ohio Valley slowly moving northward.
/22/ Tonight and Tomorrow: High pressure remains in control through tonight into Monday. Afternoon highs Monday will moderate toward more seasonal values, rising into the mid/upper 70s F for most, and around 80 F along the highway 84 corridor.
(Today) Water vapor shows an upper level low over the lower TN valley this morning. A few sprinkles may occur early this morning, but a dry day is anticipated as the low pivots northeast through the day. Depending on how fast this occurs, afternoon highs may vary from the lower to middle 60s in southern middle TN to the upper 60s to around 70 in north AL.
- Temperatures will be warmer with dry weather on Tuesday.
An upper level low to our west will remain nearly stationary and cut off from the main flow today. The upper level low will finally begin to slowly move northeastward Monday night, reaching southeast Ohio or northwestern West Virginia by Tuesday morning. Being so close to the upper low, chances of showers will continue Monday night. Upper low will continue to rotate across the area Tuesday, providing additional rounds of showers and occasional thunderstorms, particularly during peak heating hours. Low will gradually kick off to the northeast later in the day Tuesday/Tuesday night, with decreasing shower activity, as low pressure across the southwest U.
1106 PM EDT Sun May 4 2025 An upper low will provide rounds of showers and thunderstorms through Monday, with afternoon and evening severe weather chances on Monday.
(This evening through Monday) A closed upper low will remain west of the area on Monday and centered over the Desert Southwest.
The warmth continues thanks to the mid/upper level blocking pattern in place. By Tuesday night, the closed low over the southeast will finally advect eastward, allowing the other closed low (over the southwest) to take its place. At the surface, high pressure will spread down into southeastern Canada, resulting in a backdoor front on its western periphery over the Upper Mississippi Valley.
334 AM EDT Mon May 5 2025 A cold front will stall just offshore as high pressure begins to build into the region.
235 AM EDT Mon May 5 2025 High pressure building down from the north will crest over the area today.
The omega blocking pattern remains aloft for Monday though this pattern will begin to break down. With upper level ridging over the forecast area, skies will remain clear with high temperatures again warming to the 70s to up to about 80F.
A cold front is located from central Manitoba southwest to west of Dauphin to the Estevan SK area then to Watford City and into southeast Montana. For today, the cold front will slide southeast with the wind shift by 00z near Winnipeg to Langdon to north of Bismarck then into western South Dakota. Ahead of this front it will remain unseasonably warm with highs in the low 80s. NBM remains a bit cooler than this more along the 80-83 range from Fargo northward to Pembina with warmest in Pembina. Cooler for most areas Tuesday, esp northeast ND. High pressure slides east thru Manitoba into NW Ontario Tues night-Wed keeping area in northeast sfc flow but cooler temps and higher dew pts and fire weather concerns are diminished.
Given the flow around the large upper low, expect storm motions of SE to NW with right- propagating storms moving due north. Although not outlooked for tornadoes, a brief, weak tornado can not be ruled out given the low LCLs and sufficient veering of the wind profile at low levels. Active weather will likely continue into Tuesday as the core of the upper low moves into western PA. This will push the highest instability and greatest chance for severe weather east into the Lower Susquehanna Valley.
Dry weather persists through much of the week, and after one more cooler/chilly morning temperatures trend noticeably warmer by Tuesday afternoon.
Discussion: Upper low will stay pivoting in place today, tonight it will finally begin to pull away. Would expect today to be another primarily shower type day, but with low freezing levels aloft, wouldn't be a surprise if additional pea sized hail is observed, similar to yesterday.
325 AM EDT Mon May 5 2025 (Today through Tuesday) At a glance: - Cooler than normal temperatures with cold overnight lows. A large upper level cut off low has stalled over the eastern half of the US bringing much cooler temperatures to our CWA.
- Dry with warmer than normal temperatures through much of the week. Temperatures return into the 70s by Tuesday and continue to be warmer than normal throughout the work week.
The pesky upper low will continue to influence the weather across central Indiana through the short term. Energy rotating around the upper low will bring some showers to northern portions of central Indiana early this morning, while forcing to the upper low itself will keep some rain across the far southern forecast area. During the day today, the upper low will drift northeast through Kentucky and weaken some. Tonight, the upper low will move northeast into Ohio. At the surface, a stronger trough will move into the northeast forecast area.
434 AM EDT Mon May 5 2025 A cold front continues to slowly move off the coast tonight into tomorrow and is expected to stall offshore. Key Message(s): - Seasonable temperatures and dry weather expected today Upper low situated over KY/TN remains in place today with dry southwesterly flow aloft over the forecast area. Temperatures will start out a bit chilly in the lower 50s but should warm quickly into the 70s with highs expected in the upper 70s to lower 80s.
Southeast Michigan remains on the northern end of large low pressure spinning across the Ohio River Valley. Low pressure lifts slightly to the north bringing renewed chances for rain after 00Z later this evening. The northern expanse of a closed mid level low meandering across the lower Ohio valley this afternoon will maintain influence through Tuesday. Surface reflection and associated inverted trough arrive late Monday into Monday night, as upper low eases northeast across Ohio. Moist cyclonic flow with the upper low still in vicinity will maintain a chance for showers and isolated thunderstorms through Tuesday, with coverage likely peaking with a late day diurnal boost.
A few patches of frost are possible overnight in the Illinois and Applegate valleys, while widespread freezing temperatures for the east side are still seasonably typical.
We introduce a slight chance of showers back into the forecast, mainly for our southwestern counties, on Tuesday as a H5 vort max ejects out ahead of an upper low churning across the Desert Southwest.
The center of a vertically stacked closed low pressure system will remain fairly stationary over the Ohio River today.
Upper ridging prevails today as a blocking pattern continues to impact the central CONUS. Heading into Monday, the H5 ridge moves slightly east as an upper low approaches from the west. Much cooler temperatures arrive Tuesday in response to a cold front that passes through the area late Monday night into Tuesday morning.
- Trending warmer and largely drier through the rest of the week. - Meteorological Overview: Split troughing is in place across the west, with closed low over AZ and vicinity and an open wave over western MT and vicinity. Snow levels largely look to be around and a bit below pass level, though do look to briefly lower onto the plains and into valleys this morning as well as heading into tonight as cooler air works in.
331 AM EDT Mon May 5 2025 - Areas of light rain to continue into Tuesday - Highs in the low to mid 60s today and Tuesday.
109 AM EDT Mon May 5 2025 - Warmer and drier than normal period continues into the work week. Temperatures across the interior of the UP are climbing into the 60s, with the interior- western UP climbing even higher into the lower 70s. A moderating airmass will have temperatures coming in warmer than last night, with lows ranging in the upper 30s to lower 40s. We start off the work week with midlevel ridging over the Upper Great Lakes and stacked low pressure over the Ohio Valley slowly moving northward.
Some of the initial convection could affect areas just inland from the coast during the early to mid-afternoon, but with the southwest to west flow setting up the highest rain chances shift into the eastern half of the Florida peninsula during the late afternoon and early evening.
223 AM MDT Mon May 5 2025 KEY MESSAGES: 1) Gusty north winds will continue today with much cooler temperatures leading to rough waves on Fort Peck Lake.
Latest surface observations highlight temperatures in the low to mid 80s with heat indices in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Aloft, the ridge axis extends through the Great Lakes & into Ontario, Canada. Neither the cut off low or the broad ridge want to move due to the amount of blocking in the mid & upper levels. Our pattern & surface weather will be slow to evolve due to that aforementioned blocking.
Low pressure is currently centered near Virginia Beach this afternoon with most rain confined to right along the coastline. However, a few very isolated afternoon showers still possible near the Blue Ridge. Temperatures this afternoon, even with cloud cover, will rise into the low/mid 70s. A little more sun on Wednesday should allow temperatures to be 2 to 5 degrees warmer by tomorrow afternoon. A coastal low pressure system will remain just east of the Virginia coast but will be dragged northeastward into the main flow later this week.
(Tonight through Wednesday) Hot temperatures and dry conditions will persist as the upper low over the coastal Carolinas brings northerly flow to much of the southeast.
622 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025 - Moist airmass coming off the Gulf will combine with upper low eclipsing the southeast US to bring about the chance for isolated to scattered afternoon showers today and Wednesday. - Temperatures should hold steady in the low 90s through the forecast period.
We will see a bump up in storm chances tomorrow an an upper level trough pushes through the state.
The highest chances of these isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will be east of US281/I-69C. In addition, an upper level ridge is expected to set up and remain prevalent southwest of our region in Mexico.
pdf Weak high pressure with fairly dry airmass will remain in place Tonight. The coolest air will be inland as a light onshore flow keeps coastal areas warmer. The cooler air over the relatively warmer inland bodies of water, and marshy areas could result in the formation of patchy fog overnight.
* Well needed rainfall chances increase across the region through the weekend with a slow moving upper level low approaching from the intermountain-west.
546 PM MDT Tue Sep 16 2025 - Showers and storms develop over the higher terrain along and north of I-70 Wednesday afternoon. A low pressure system remains centered over Wyoming this afternoon with a front draped over northeast Utah. High temperatures tomorrow will be a handful of degrees cooler behind the front.