Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
524 AM CST Wed Nov 6 2024 (Today through Thursday) A cold front situated to our immediate west has slowed to a crawl. The 06Z HRRR shows the convection continuing to track very slowly eastward but also diminishing to the extent that all of the mid state might not measure precipitation with this cold front. We can expect a few degrees of cooling with the eventual passage of this pesky cold front, but temperatures look to remain above normal for the foreseeable future. (Thursday Night through next Wednesday) The next appreciable chance for rain won't happen until this weekend with the approach of another low pressure system.
428 AM EST Wed Nov 6 2024 A cold front will bring scattered rain showers to the region today.
High pressure has built offshore as a trough digs to our east, bringing us offshore winds. These winds have given way to clear skies and cooler overnight temperatures. Gusts up to 45 mph are possible in low elevation areas of eastern Lake County, while ridges could see gusts up to 55 mph.
404 AM EST Wed Nov 6 2024 A cold front will bring widespread showers today.
KEY MESSAGES: -A passing upper level wave and cold front will return measurable rain to the region. Another round is expected late this afternoon and evening along the cold front itself as it pushes through the area from northwest to southeast. NBM probs for gusts > 30 mph range from 40 to 70%, with higher values on the ridge tops.
(This afternoon through Thursday) The strong mid-level ridging over the western Atlantic waters will to continue to weaken with time through the mid-week. While the system will move into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico following crossing western Cuba, the most important details of Rafael's track is that with an increasingly sharp turn to the west, South Florida will not be directly impacted due to the ridge's steer.
Given the cloud split, elected to bump local maxT's a few degrees citing rapid ASOS recovery and a marginal layer of drier air being present at the sfc as Td's sit in the low to mid 50's through the afternoon prior to the return of some lower 60 Td's with the boundary trailing back west. KNAPP (Wednesday through Thursday) The stalled cold front will continue to ebb and flow across the region today, which will help maintain rain chances in our eastern zones.
- Warmer and dry conditions into the weekend. The upper low is shifting east today and ridging will begin to build over the region, bringing dry conditions and a warming trend to end the week.
pdf High pressure will be centered to the east northeast through Tonight. An inverted trough is expected to develop over inland areas, extending north from Tropical System named Rafael. This trough will be the focus for showers, which may become heavy at times inland.
Issued by National Weather Service Albany NY 349 PM EST Wed Nov 6 2024 Lingering showers are expected this evening and tonight associated with a cold frontal passage. Much cooler temperatures return tomorrow behind the front, and drier weather will return for the tail end of the week.
Several showers moved through the Lower Keys this morning which is where the bulk of the activity has been with the Middle and Upper Keys having an occasional shower here and there. MRMS data suggests estimated rainfall amounts of nothing to up to a tenth of an inch for the Middle and Upper Keys with a good portion of the Lower Keys seeing anywhere from a tenth of an inch up to a half an inch.
1256 PM EST Wed Nov 6 2024 - While still above normal, cooler temperatures are expected for the next few days.
That threat should continue to spread south with the trough this afternoon and evening, producing trace amounts to perhaps a few hundredths. In addition a secondary cold front will bring potential for scattered light rain showers and sprinkles. Winds veering to the west to nw this afternoon will advect a cooler airmass into our area. - Fair Weather Late This Week High pressure building in from the west will result in partly sunny skies and seasonably cool conditions beginning Thursday.
1122 AM CST Wed Nov 6 2024 (Today through Thursday Night) The cold front has moved to far SERN sections of the state. drier/cooler air has settled over the area.
Overnight lows will vary from the low 50s across the northern counties north of the front to near 60 across the south where the front is likely to be settled.
245 PM EST Wed Nov 6 2024 A cold front is moving through bringing a few isolated rain showers to Central NY with the rest of the region just seeing clouds. Tomorrow will be cooler with some morning lake effect rain showers along and north of I 90 before drying out in the afternoon. A cold front is moving through the region today with cooler air filtering behind it tonight. With how warm temperatures have been, the cooler air moving in will only drop highs tomorrow back to near seasonable averages to slightly above average still. Sheltered valleys that can decouple early in the night may radiate into the mid to upper 20s but rest of the region will be in the low 40s and upper 30s.
(This evening through Thursday) Isentropic lift continues across the Deep South this afternoon as Central Alabama remains wedged in between the 500mb ridge to our east and longwave trough over the western CONUS. For Thursday, following the low clouds mixing out by mid-morning, some drier air is expected to work in aloft, which will reduce our overall coverage of showers and possibly a storm.
As colder air filters into the area and winds begin to calm down a bit, freezing temperatures remain a threat in some areas late tonight into early Thursday. The well-advertised cold front has pushed through, bringing widespread wind gusts of 30-50 mph.
A warm front will push northwest today into into Thursday. Temperatures will warm through the period thanks to the lifting warm front allowing warmer air to move back into Deep South Texas. Overnight lows will remain in the low to mid 70s.
(Through Tonight) A pleasant afternoon has taken shape across the region under the influence of broad surface ridging. Temps tonight will be a few degrees warmer than last night with lows primarily in the lower to mid 40s across the north and lower 50s expected across the south. At least high level cloud cover will also likely increase through the day Thursday, especially across eastern Oklahoma in advance of a slow moving upper low dragging across the Southwestern CONUS. Aforementioned upper low will stall out for much of the day Thursday well to the west of the local region and as such, rain chances have been pulled back west on Thursday and much of the area should remain dry.
High pressure will dominate the pattern over the northern Great Basin and Rockies. Messick VFR conditions forecast areawide as high pressure builds in from the west, keeping the pattern dry through late week.
(This evening through Thursday Night) Always a tricky forecast when dealing with lingering boundaries as yesterdays passing cold front remains stalled across the LA/MS border.
107 PM CST Wed Nov 6 2024 - A slow moving cold front will complete its passage by tomorrow afternoon, bringing an eventual end to shower and storm chances. A cold front's slow passage will ultimately end pops, but they will linger, especially in our east, til its passage can complete and some drier air works in, roughly about 24 hours from now. Cooler/drier northeasterlies will draw dew points down thru the 50s, into the 40s, tmrw-tmrw night, and highs the next two-three days will stay (largely) in the 60s.
(Tonight through Thursday night) There is a deep upper level trough over the western part of the country with southwesterly flow over Texas. High pressure at the surface has anticyclonic turning winds across our CWA with northeasterly to easterly to southeasterly from east to west. Tonight this front will come back northward as a warm front bringing warm, moist air back to the region. Skies will become cloudy and temperatures will be much warmer with lows Thursday morning around 10 degrees warmer than this morning. Later in the day a cold front will move through west TX and approach our northwestern area.
Given the cloud split, elected to bump local maxT's a few degrees citing rapid ASOS recovery and a marginal layer of drier air being present at the sfc as Td's sit in the low to mid 50's through the afternoon prior to the return of some lower 60 Td's with the boundary trailing back west. However, the lower cigs along the weak frontal bndry are expected to expand/spread SW into SW AR/NW LA this evening, and into E TX during the late evening and overnight hours. The low MVFR cigs are expected to lower to IFR overnight, with LIFR cigs not ruled out by/after 12Z Thursday.
Amounts look to range from one to three quarters of an inch, with the higher amounts expected south of I-70. Although the low cloud cover should limit fog potential, any breaks in the clouds could lead to patches of fog as well.
1246 PM EST Wed Nov 6 2024 A cold front will bring widespread showers today.
/13 (Now through Thursday) The story remains the same with upper ridging centered from eastern Florida into the Bahamas keeping the forecast area under southwest flow aloft.
RAP/HRRR/NAM all favor reestablishing the low saturation in the form of more low stratus - roughly from around midnight through the morning hours of Thu. Clearing for the afternoon under the influence of weak high pressure. However - if the low stratus does not redevelop - the saturated ground from recent rains and clear skies sets the stage for widespread fog. WEEKEND: next chances for rain Focus then turns towards an upper level trough currently located across the Rocky Mountain states.
(Tonight through Thursday night) Deep upper trough moving into the Southern Rockies was drawing low level moisture northward across South Texas this afternoon. This moisture was overriding the surface warm front located about 60 miles off the coast creating broken to overcast skies over much of the Coastal Bend. The upper trough will get a little closer on Thursday drawing the warm front north of the forecast area. And thus we will see more sunshine, warmer temperatures and higher humidity.
129 PM MST Wed Nov 6 2024 - Dry conditions are expected into the weekend as upper level high pressure builds across the Northern Rockies and Montana.
543 PM CST Wed Nov 6 2024 (Through Tonight) A pleasant afternoon has taken shape across the region under the influence of broad surface ridging. Temps tonight will be a few degrees warmer than last night with lows primarily in the lower to mid 40s across the north and lower 50s expected across the south. At least high level cloud cover will also likely increase through the day Thursday, especially across eastern Oklahoma in advance of a slow moving upper low dragging across the Southwestern CONUS. Aforementioned upper low will stall out for much of the day Thursday well to the west of the local region and as such, rain chances have been pulled back west on Thursday and much of the area should remain dry.
(Now through Thursday Night) The area remains in a southwesterly flow aloft between an upper trough over the western states and a ridge centered off the southeast coast. Temperatures remain well above normal with highs on Thursday in the low to mid 80s. Lows will be in the low to mid 60s inland to low 70s along the coast.
Cooler night temperatures will bring frost to the interior for the next few days. High pressure continues offshore as a trough digs to our east, bringing offshore winds. These winds have given way to clear skies and cooler overnight temperatures. Gusts up to 45 mph are possible in low elevation areas of eastern Lake County, while ridges could see gusts up to 55 mph.
Temperatures tonight will remain mild in the low to mid 60s.
743 PM MST Wed Nov 6 2024 - Dry conditions are expected into the weekend as upper level high pressure builds across the Northern Rockies and Montana.
526 PM CST Wed Nov 6 2024 (This evening through Thursday Night) The brief cooler and drier period behind the early morning frontal passage yesterday is quickly coming to an end as the boundary pushes back onshore as a warm front. Shower coverage will increase heading into tomorrow with the northward push of the warm front along with the approach of a robust upper trough from the west. Look for values in the lower to mid 80s across most of the area.
610 PM EST Wed Nov 6 2024 (This afternoon through Thursday) The strong mid-level ridging over the western Atlantic waters will to continue to weaken with time through the mid-week. While the system will move into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico following crossing western Cuba, the most important details of Rafael's track is that with an increasingly sharp turn to the west, South Florida will not be directly impacted due to the ridge's steer.
In addition, an outer band moved off of Cuba to the northeast of Matanzas with this squall line heading right for the Lower Keys. The expected arrival time of this squall to the Lower Keys is in about another hour or two.
Additional snow is expected for eastern Arizona later tonight through Thursday night, with a few inches in the mountains and lighter amounts for the lower elevations.
611 PM CST Wed Nov 6 2024 (Tonight through Thursday night) There is a deep upper level trough over the western part of the country with southwesterly flow over Texas. High pressure at the surface has anticyclonic turning winds across our CWA with northeasterly to easterly to southeasterly from east to west. Tonight this front will come back northward as a warm front bringing warm, moist air back to the region. Skies will become cloudy and temperatures will be much warmer with lows Thursday morning around 10 degrees warmer than this morning. Later in the day a cold front will move through west TX and approach our northwestern area.
715 PM CST Wed Nov 6 2024 (This evening through Thursday Night) Always a tricky forecast when dealing with lingering boundaries as yesterdays passing cold front remains stalled across the LA/MS border.
At least high level cloud cover will also likely increase through the day Thursday, especially across eastern Oklahoma in advance of a slow moving upper low dragging across the Southwestern CONUS. Aforementioned upper low will stall out for much of the day Thursday well to the west of the local region and as such, rain chances have been pulled back west on Thursday and much of the area should remain dry.
517 PM CST Wed Nov 6 2024 - A slow moving cold front will complete its passage by tomorrow afternoon, bringing an eventual end to shower and storm chances. A cold front's slow passage will ultimately end pops, but they will linger, especially in our east, til its passage can complete and some drier air works in, roughly about 24 hours from now. Cooler/drier northeasterlies will draw dew points down thru the 50s, into the 40s, tmrw-tmrw night, and highs the next two-three days will stay (largely) in the 60s.
(This evening through Thursday Night) The brief cooler and drier period behind the early morning frontal passage yesterday is quickly coming to an end as the boundary pushes back onshore as a warm front. Shower coverage will increase heading into tomorrow with the northward push of the warm front along with the approach of a robust upper trough from the west. Look for values in the lower to mid 80s across most of the area.
621 PM EST Wed Nov 6 2024 - While still above normal, cooler temperatures are expected for the next few days.
512 PM CST Wed Nov 6 2024 (This evening through Thursday) Isentropic lift continues across the Deep South this afternoon as Central Alabama remains wedged in between the 500mb ridge to our east and longwave trough over the western CONUS. For Thursday, following the low clouds mixing out by mid-morning, some drier air is expected to work in aloft, which will reduce our overall coverage of showers and possibly a storm.
Temperatures are forecast to be near to slightly above normal for this time of year as weak high pressure prevails over the area.
SP (This evening through Thursday Night) Always a tricky forecast when dealing with lingering boundaries as yesterdays passing cold front remains stalled across the LA/MS border.
106 AM EST Thu Nov 7 2024 (This afternoon through Thursday) The strong mid-level ridging over the western Atlantic waters will to continue to weaken with time through the mid-week. While the system will move into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico following crossing western Cuba, the most important details of Rafael's track is that with an increasingly sharp turn to the west, South Florida will not be directly impacted due to the ridge's steer.
Frontal boundary won't make it through the area today, which means our record highs and record warm lows tonight will both be within a few degrees of record, though right now the highs appear to be closer, depending on how cloud cover and morning fog affect the diurnal temperature curve today.
Temperatures in the lower to mid 70s, with dewpoints only a couple of degrees lower. Visibility guidance not in the best agreement tonight with extent and coverage of fog, with the limiting factor likely the low clouds this evening and likely to linger overnight. No significant precipitation is expected overnight, possibly some patchy drizzle within the low clouds/fog by daybreak.
These conditions will be perfect for strong radiational cooling resulting in cold overnight minimum temperatures which will be below freezing across all of southwestern Idaho and southeastern Oregon and will help intensify an already strong surface inversion. VFR with high pressure dominating aloft and at the surface.
352 AM EST Thu Nov 7 2024 A cold front will push through the region later today.
Over the past few hours, some of the highest wind gust reports have come in near 50 mph. It has been just a little too busy for us to sort through the precipitation observations yet, but radar- estimated totals show that the Lower Keys have seen the most rain this evening. With the flow coming onshore from the Atlantic side of the islands, there is a Coastal Flood Advisory in effect for the Lower and Middle Keys and a Coastal Flood Statement in effect for the Upper Keys. (00Z TAFS) Waves of squalls will move across the Lower and Middle Keys tonight as Hurricane Rafael passes to the southwest of the Florida Keys Coastal Waters.
1116 PM CST Wed Nov 6 2024 - A slow moving cold front will complete its passage by tomorrow afternoon, bringing an eventual end to shower and storm chances. A cold front's slow passage will ultimately end pops, but they will linger, especially in our east, til its passage can complete and some drier air works in, roughly about 24 hours from now. Cooler/drier northeasterlies will draw dew points down thru the 50s, into the 40s, tmrw-tmrw night, and highs the next two-three days will stay (largely) in the 60s.
1026 PM CST Wed Nov 6 2024 (This evening through Thursday) Isentropic lift continues across the Deep South this afternoon as Central Alabama remains wedged in between the 500mb ridge to our east and longwave trough over the western CONUS. For Thursday, following the low clouds mixing out by mid-morning, some drier air is expected to work in aloft, which will reduce our overall coverage of showers and possibly a storm.
224 AM CST Thu Nov 7 2024 The stalled boundary lying through western portions of Mississippi in conjunction with moist, Gulf return flow around the western flank of the subtropical ridge centered off the coast of the Carolinas will be our primary meteorological drivers for the near to mid term forecast. As the front washes out over the next few days, remnant weaker low level convergence is expected to persist amid continued increases in mid to upper level moisture channeled into the area by the flow around the aforementioned ridge. There looks to be a relatively weak cold front making its way into the area late this weekend, which will prompt reinforcement of thunderstorm/shower probabilities for the area.
1211 AM EST Thu Nov 7 2024 - While still above normal, cooler temperatures are expected for the next few days.
1121 PM CST Wed Nov 6 2024 (This evening through Thursday Night) The brief cooler and drier period behind the early morning frontal passage yesterday is quickly coming to an end as the boundary pushes back onshore as a warm front. Shower coverage will increase heading into tomorrow with the northward push of the warm front along with the approach of a robust upper trough from the west. Look for values in the lower to mid 80s across most of the area.
326 AM EST Thu Nov 7 2024 Cooler, but still above normal temperatures are expected today along with some morning lake effect rain showers along and north of the NY Thruway corridor.
Amounts look to range from one to three quarters of an inch, with the higher amounts expected south of I-70. With northerly winds and lots of clouds upstream, and a high pressure ridge over part of the CWA, believe cloud cover will continue into tomorrow morning and then once the sun has been up for a while, clouds will begin to dissipate during the afternoon. Although the low cloud cover should limit fog potential, any breaks in the clouds could lead to patches of fog as well.
- Dry conditions are expected into the weekend as upper level high pressure builds across the Northern Rockies and Montana.
- Heaviest rain expected to shift into the Lowcountry by this afternoon. High temperatures in the low to mid 70s. A weak surface cold front will be situated across the forecast area through much of the short term period.
High pressure extends from Pacific Northwest into the Midwest this morning providing light winds and fair weather condtions, albeit cloudy for much of the area. 00Z ILX sounding showed a sharp inversion based around 900mb was in place which continues to lock low level moisture over central Illinois resulting in the low stratus.
321 AM EST Thu Nov 7 2024 A weak cold front moving into the region will provide most cloudy skies and a few sprinkles this morning before skies clear this afternoon.
120 AM MST Thu Nov 7 2024 - Warmer and dry conditions into the weekend.
524 AM CST Thu Nov 7 2024 The stalled boundary lying through western portions of Mississippi in conjunction with moist, Gulf return flow around the western flank of the subtropical ridge centered off the coast of the Carolinas will be our primary meteorological drivers for the near to mid term forecast. As the front washes out over the next few days, remnant weaker low level convergence is expected to persist amid continued increases in mid to upper level moisture channeled into the area by the flow around the aforementioned ridge. There looks to be a relatively weak cold front making its way into the area late this weekend, which will prompt reinforcement of thunderstorm/shower probabilities for the area.
Models indicated the low will track slowly eastward during the day arriving over the AZ/NM border by 00Z/Fri. The low continues eastward moving over central New Mexico by 12Z/Fri then to the Panhandle region by 00Z/Sat. Meanwhile, areas to the north and west will continue to be dry but much cooler than normal.
843 AM EST Thu Nov 7 2024 Dry weather settles in area wide on Friday as high pressure moves into the Great Lakes region.
High pressure extends from Pacific Northwest into the Midwest this morning providing light winds and fair weather condtions, albeit cloudy for much of the area. 00Z ILX sounding showed a sharp inversion based around 900mb was in place which continues to lock low level moisture over central Illinois resulting in the low stratus. Meanwhile, an upper low over the Desert Southwest this morning will lift across the Great Plains to the Upper Midwest this weekend.
Dry with temperatures trending warmer through the weekend.
654 AM EST Thu Nov 7 2024 High pressure will move farther off the East Coast over the next few days allowing for continued above normal temperatures.
521 AM CST Thu Nov 7 2024 (Today through Friday Night) To begin the period, an upper level low is located across the Four Corners region and will continue to push off towards the northeast. This low pressure system is expected to drag a cold front across the state late in the period.