Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
631 PM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025 (This afternoon through Saturday) The region remains under a stagnant and somewhat quasi-zonal flow aloft with some weak surface ridging over the southeast.
Auten An upper trough spinning over the Northern Plains will slowly work into the Upper Mississippi Valley this weekend.
753 PM EDT Fri Sep 19 2025 Outside of a few isolated showers on Saturday, the area remains generally dry as high pressure builds over the area this weekend.
Chances for showers and thunderstorms diminish over the weekend, especially Saturday, with a bit warmer temperatures.
721 PM EDT Fri Sep 19 2025 Behind a departing cold front, cooler and drier weather will build into the region for tonight. With high pressure in control, it will remain mostly clear through the weekend, with cool overnights and comfortable afternoons. A cold front has passed through the forecast area and is dropping southward across the northern mid Atlantic States. Have leaned towards the lower end of the blended guidance for tonight, with overnight lows in the upper 20s to mid 30s across the southern Adirondacks. Over the weekend, the high pressure area will slowly drift across the North Country and into New England. Daytime temps will be a little cooler than recent days, but still very comfortable in the 60s to near 70 on Saturday.
The last couple runs of the RAP as well as the 18Z NAM show a pretty good signal for elevated showers and storms to become more widespread overnight as the low level jet noses into northeast KS within a good warm air advection pattern. Upper low over southeastern South Dakota slowly moving east- southeast with one wave rotating around it over central Nebraska sparking showers and thunderstorms ahead of it. The wave's exit late tonight into Saturday morning should lead to decreasing precipitation with slightly cooler temperatures.
923 PM EDT Fri Sep 19 2025 Warm and dry weather will continue into the weekend as high pressure builds in.
735 PM EDT Fri Sep 19 2025 High pressure gives way to a backdoor front for Saturday.
Weak surface ridging over the southeastern United States is generating light breezes across the Keys this evening. Troughing will remain across the Gulf through the upper levels. However, increasingly drier air in the lower levels will filter southward across the Keys overnight. High pressure over the southeastern United States will maintain light to gentle breezes overnight.
541 PM MDT Fri Sep 19 2025 - Dry and warmer weather will prevail for this upcoming weekend. Thus, resulting in warmer and drier weather for the upcoming weekend. A much warmer and drier weekend, around 7-10 degrees warmer compared to the last several days, is on tap as the aformentioned upper low continues to push east. The upper-level pattern will transition to more of a northwest flow regime as a deep trough pushes into the PAC NW with a cold front out in front.
A low-pressure system over central California continues to track eastward, resulting in high clouds across much of the forecast area this evening.
805 PM EDT Fri Sep 19 2025 Warm and dry weather will continue into the weekend as high pressure builds in.
644 PM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025 Updated at 644 PM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025 - Isolated to scattered shower and thunderstorm chances continue through Saturday, mainly in Southeast New Mexico and in/around the higher terrain (10-30%).
1205 AM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025 Updated at 1204 AM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025 - Isolated to scattered shower and thunderstorm chances continue through Saturday, mainly in Southeast New Mexico and in/around the higher terrain (10-30%).
1231 AM EDT Sat Sep 20 2025 Behind a departing cold front, cooler and drier weather will build into the region for tonight. With high pressure in control, it will remain mostly clear through the weekend, with cool overnights and comfortable afternoons. A cold front has passed through the forecast area and is dropping southward across the northern mid Atlantic States. Have leaned towards the lower end of the blended guidance for tonight, with overnight lows in the upper 20s to mid 30s across the southern Adirondacks. Over the weekend, the high pressure area will slowly drift across the North Country and into New England. Daytime temps will be a little cooler than recent days, but still very comfortable in the 60s to near 70 on Saturday.
while higher humidity keeps overnights warmer, clouds bring milder days. Central Indiana will remain under the increasing influence of an upper trough throughout the short term period. Impulses will bring forcing at times as they move through the upper trough. Will generally time the highest PoPs in the afternoon and then again overnight as 850mb winds increase and moisture deepens. Clouds and increasing moisture will keep temperatures in the lower and middle 60s for lows tonight.
106 AM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025 -Above normal weekend start temperatures turn more seasonable beginning the new week, and may even trend cooler into the 70s over the back half of the week.
Localized flooding will also be of concern with developing storms this afternoon, but with weak bulk shear the lifespan of individual storms should remain relatively short and the highest threat remains with the collapsing updrafts.
As previously mentioned, any rain or cloud coverage could help keep temperatures slightly cooler, but will continue with the NBM temperatures until model agreement is better.
Upper low centered over eastern SD will move slowly into southern MN tonight. The upper trough pulls east into MN/WI on Sunday, and showers will taper off by the end of the weekend.
442 AM EDT Sat Sep 20 2025 High pressure builds over the region today, sliding off the New England coast tonight.
Warmer than normal temperatures are still expected areawide. A few low pressure systems moving through the region and deeper moisture pooled in the Deep South may actually yield some heavy rainfall potential before the week is over.
The first rainfall chances in several days will move into the area later tonight as an upper level low that has been blocked to our west finally progresses eastward toward the region. A few showers and perhaps a thunderstorm will be possible after about midnight tonight, and chances will linger into Saturday as the trough axis sits overhead and modest instability develops, though coverage and intensity should be limited.
- Sunday cold front to deliver cooler temperatures, windy conditions, and chances for light showers. A cold front brings cooler temperatures, chances for showers, and gusty winds on Sunday.
208 AM EDT Sat Sep 20 2025 High pressure will continue to be in place through the weekend.
403 AM EDT Sat Sep 20 2025 High pressure gives way to a backdoor front today. The backdoor front retreats north Sunday as a warm front with high pressure overhead.
234 AM EDT Sat Sep 20 2025 A weak backdoor cold front will move south through NC later today and tonight.
KEY MESSAGES: - Patchy fog possible in a few locations - Continued above normal temperatures --------------------------------------------------------------- Mostly clear skies expected before high clouds begin to increase early this morning ahead of a trough approaching from the midwest. Dry conditions are then expected through much of the day as ridging transitions over the region. KEY MESSAGES: - Isolated showers/storms possible with an upper trough later on Sunday - Continued above normal temperatures -------------------------------------------------------------- Although conditions will be mainly dry for much of the day, shower/storm chances will increase later on Sunday as low level moisture advection increases instability, but there is some uncertainty if warm air aloft keeps a lid on any convection.
Early today, an upper low remains north of the area. POPs begin to increase once again tonight with the approach of another mid-level wave on the southern edge of a low dropping out of Canada and phasing with the previously mentioned upper low.
The highest PWATs will be found over the northern valleys/mountains so any slight wiggle in the mean flow should be enough to release some instability and allow showers/storms to form.
(Tonight through Sunday Night) An upper level ridge has provided Middle TN with a long pattern of very warm and mainly dry conditions.
An upper low across the northern Plains will continue to pivot through the north central conus. Locally, weak waves of vorticity off the base of the associated trough axis will support another low chances of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon.
These conditions will not continue as we expect plenty of clouds, showery weather and cooler readings over the course of the next 5 days at least. We will see southwest flow take over for the weekend aloft as upper troughing moves our direction from the Plains states.
310 AM EDT Sat Sep 20 2025 A weak backdoor cold front will move south through NC later today and tonight.
115 AM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025 - Dry conditions will prevail for the first half of the weekend, accompanied by another round of warmer temperatures.
1252 AM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025 An upper trough over the East Coast slowly moves off through the weekend. Another upper trough develops over the Lower Mississippi River Valley over the weekend, then moves slowly east over the Southeast in the coming week. 5" or a bit higher) working with a weakness in the upper ridging will allow isolated afternoon convection to form over the Southeast.
Overall, temperatures will remain above average this weekend, with slightly cooler temperatures Sunday compared to Saturday.
As such, fog has developed this morning mainly in areas west of the low-level stratus deck that also received wetting rains. Encroaching lowly amplified ridge will lead to a slight warming trend to finish out the weekend.
249 AM EDT Sat Sep 20 2025 High pressure builds over the region today, sliding off the New England coast tonight.
1142 PM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025 - Dry conditions will prevail for the first half of the weekend, accompanied by another round of warmer temperatures.
This jet will act to lift our coverage of showers further north though by Saturday night with a temporarily reprieve for areas south of I-70 as ridging amplifies north of the Four Corners by Sunday. On Sunday, a closed low pressure will be located off the coast of Southern Cal with ridging over the region.
355 AM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025 - Dense Fog Advisory for areas generally along and west of Highway 83 through the mid morning hours behind weak cold front.
Isolated showers and storms developed along the Highway 65 to Highway 63 corridor along a weak front or trough and in an area of 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE. Some variation of this pattern is supported in most of the ensemble clusters as well, though with various intensity and placement of the upper low.
112 AM EDT Sat Sep 20 2025 High pressure remains in control of our weather through the weekend, with dry and mostly clear conditions expected. The upper level ridge breaks down by early to mid week, bringing increasing chance for showers and plenty of clouds to the region. Skies are clearing this afternoon and evening as a dry cold front presses south through the region. A frost advisory remains in effect for northern Oneida County where confidence is currently highest in seeing overnight lows in the lower to mid-30s.
with increasing clouds and rain around through the day, temperatures are expected to be cooler in the upper 70s to lower 80s.
153 AM EDT Sat Sep 20 2025 Isolated showers and storms today, with high pressure beginning to build over the area this weekend. At the surface, guidance is consistent in a trough across much of the forecast area.
1038 PM MDT Fri Sep 19 2025 - Dry and warmer weather will prevail for this upcoming weekend. Thus, resulting in warmer and drier weather for the upcoming weekend.
KEY MESSAGES: - Isolated showers/storms possible with an upper trough later on Sunday - Continued above normal temperatures --------------------------------------------------------------- Dry conditions are expected for most through today with surface ridging extending south from an area of high pressure centered over Ontario. Mid to upper level clouds will begin to increase from the south early this morning as moisture works in aloft in southerly flow on the periphery of a central CONUS mid-level trough.
954 AM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025 - Dense Fog Advisory for areas generally along and west of Highway 83 through the mid morning hours behind weak cold front.
649 AM EDT Sat Sep 20 2025 High pressure will continue to be in place through the weekend.
654 AM EDT Sat Sep 20 2025 High pressure gives way to a backdoor front today. The backdoor front retreats north Sunday as a warm front with high pressure overhead.
655 AM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025 - Dry conditions will prevail for the first half of the weekend, accompanied by another round of warmer temperatures.
However, with additional daytime heating, ample moisture (PWATS exceeding 1 inch) and the slow moving upper-level trough working its way across the Upper Midwest, expecting to see showers and thunderstorms to redevelop this afternoon into the evening. Otherwise, the slow progression of this upper-level trough will keep shower and chances around the area through the first half of Sunday. Wagner Issued 401 AM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025 Today through Sunday: A broad trough will remain over the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest this weekend. Temperatures will be a little cooler this weekend due to the clouds and shower/storm chances, though still near to a tad above normal with highs in the low to mid 70s.
1049 AM EDT Sat Sep 20 2025 High pressure builds over the region today, sliding off the New England coast tonight.
526 AM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025 - Dense Fog Advisory for areas generally along and west of Highway 83 through the mid morning hours behind weak cold front.
Rain chances are low, once again, but I would not be surprised to see a couple of storms as we get into the low 90s one more time.
Issued 401 AM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025 Today through Sunday: A broad trough will remain over the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest this weekend. Temperatures will be a little cooler this weekend due to the clouds and shower/storm chances, though still near to a tad above normal with highs in the low to mid 70s.
As previously mentioned, any rain or cloud coverage could help keep temperatures slightly cooler, but will continue with the NBM temperatures until model agreement is better. Given the low probability, will not mention in the TAFs at this time.
947 AM EDT Sat Sep 20 2025 High pressure builds over the region today, sliding off the New England coast tonight.
743 AM EDT Sat Sep 20 2025 High pressure builds over the region today, sliding off the New England coast tonight.
Surface analysis places a sprawling area of high pressure over the Southeast, supporting light to gentle north to northeasterly breezes and mostly sunny skies on this September morning across the Florida Keys and the adjacent coastal waters. In addition, the mean low- level northeasterlies may support a broken cumulus cloud line to form along portions of the Lower Keys. From synopsis, as drier air continues to push across the Keys and high pressure builds across the Eastern Seaboard, drier conditions, coupled with light to gentle northeast to east breezes, are expected through the rest of the weekend.
636 AM EDT Sat Sep 20 2025 Isolated showers and storms today, with high pressure beginning to build over the area this weekend. At the surface, guidance is consistent in a trough across much of the forecast area.
607 AM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025 An upper trough over the East Coast slowly moves off through the weekend. Another upper trough develops over the Lower Mississippi River Valley over the weekend, then moves slowly east over the Southeast in the coming week. 5" or a bit higher) working with a weakness in the upper ridging will allow isolated afternoon convection to form over the Southeast.
Most of the low visibilities due to fog have increased above 3 miles. As such, fog has developed this morning mainly in areas west of the low-level stratus deck that also received wetting rains. Encroaching lowly amplified ridge will lead to a slight warming trend to finish out the weekend.
1240 PM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025 - Dense Fog Advisory for areas generally along and west of Highway 83 through the mid morning hours behind weak cold front.
(Rest of today through Sunday) Guidance is showing isolated storms this afternoon and into the evening hours, as the ridge we were sitting under continues to retreat to the south and west. A more impactful trough will make its way into middle Tennessee in the middle of the week, intensifying the rainy pattern with higher coverage of precipitation across the area.
Fairly wrapped up upper low rotating over the Manitoba/North Dakota border currently will drift very slowly into the Red River Valley overnight. Most of the activity with the low has been showers, but will have to watch if any stronger cells develop enough to produce lightning with SPC meso page showing around 1000 J/kg. Any CAPE will quickly dissipate after sunset, with the lingering showers following the low into MN. Cloud cover will continue for much of the night, but with low dew point depressions and light winds can't rule out some fog forming under the mess of the upper low. The upper low will continue to push slowly east through tomorrow and tomorrow night, with scattered showers remaining in our MN counties.
Tonight, very weak H5 ridging is expected to transverse the area. Not confident in it being dense at this time as H5 ridging is short-lived. This leads to a cooler surface temp.
A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms continues this weekend in the higher elevations of the Sierra Nevada.
143 PM EDT Sat Sep 20 2025 Isolated showers and storms today, with high pressure beginning to build over the area this weekend. A minor difference will be the location of the higher low-level moisture, which is a bit more widespread today, evident by higher theta-e values across the entire area.
124 PM EDT Sat Sep 20 2025 High pressure in place today and Sunday will keep weather conditions quiet and dry the rest of the weekend.
At the surface, high pressure is still in control. That said, any shower or storm development will have limited coverage given the dry airmass that has settled in across the lower and mid levels. Models indicate a very subtle H5 impulse over the Lower Mississippi River Valley, which may be just enough to trigger a few more showers and storms.
Updated at 1213 PM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025 - Isolated to scattered showers/thunderstorms (15-40%) continue through tonight across southeast New Mexico, Lower Trans Pecos, and the higher terrain.
1147 AM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025 - Dry conditions will prevail for the first half of the weekend, accompanied by another round of warmer temperatures. At the same time, the upper-level pattern above the region shifts to a northwestern flow regime due to the dominant area of low pressure in the Northern Plains.
- A trough of low pressure passing to the north will bring higher chances of rainfall to area by the midweek as frontal system approaches.
211 PM EDT Sat Sep 20 2025 A weak backdoor cold front will move south through NC later today and tonight.
1252 PM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025 -Above normal weekend start temperatures turn more seasonable beginning the new week, and may even trend cooler into the 70s over the back half of the week.
Upper level flow is quasi-zonal across the Florida Peninsula with a high to the south and the persistent troughing along the east coast to the north. At the surface, high pressure is located near the Mid- Atlantic with continue northeasterly flow at the surface. Highs today will climb into the low 90s for most locations. A deep trough will dig southward into the Gulf.
The front works back north Sunday as high pressure works back in. Low pressure over the central U. Temperature were running warmer than previous forecast so bumped highs up a couple degrees mainly along/east of the Blue Ridge, so may see places like Danville/South Boston/Yanceyville approach 90. Any cloud cover or showers will keep it cooler in the mountains but still looking at mid or upper 70s in the higher ridges. Tonight, cloud cover and a few areas of spotty rain linger in the wedge across the Blue Ridge before dissipating late tonight. Given potential slow erosion of clouds Sunday, have highs cooler in the upper 70s to lower 80s, with some lower to mid 70s in the mountains.
116 PM EDT Sat Sep 20 2025 High pressure will continue to be in place through the weekend.
203 PM MDT Sat Sep 20 2025 - Warmer and drier for Sunday, with just minimal shower and storm activity expected over the higher terrain.
With SB CAPE values of 750-1500 J/kg still in place, we should become uncapped by 11 AM with convective initiation over the higher elevations of northeast Alabama between 12PM-2PM.
High temperatures will be a few degrees warmer than yesterday with highs in the upper 90s in the lower elevations and in the mid 60s to 70s in the higher elevations. The upper pattern this morning is defined by SW-NE orientated trough of low pressure off the central California coastline and a subtropical high centered over the southern Baja.
1232 PM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025 An upper trough over the East Coast slowly moves off through the weekend. Another upper trough develops over the Lower Mississippi River Valley over the weekend, then moves slowly east over the Southeast in the coming week. 5" or a bit higher) working with a weakness in the upper ridging will allow isolated afternoon convection to form over the Southeast.
This low however does not translate to the surface. At the surface, a high pressure sits in that same spot. At the mid-levels the western CONUS is a weak ridge the extends to western North Dakota where the backside of that upper level low sits. The far west will likely see highs in the low 80s. Away from the thermal ridge, in the east, temperatures will warm into the low 70s.
214 PM MDT Sat Sep 20 2025 - Dry and warmer conditions into Sunday.
214 PM MDT Sat Sep 20 2025 KEY MESSAGES: 1) Above average temperatures and dry conditions remain though the weekend before a cold front moves in by Sunday evening. WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: An upper level ridge will continue to build over the region through this afternoon through Sunday bringing above average temperatures.
A closed low centered off the coast of central California is advecting remnants of tropical moisture northward into the Blue Mountains region, leading to PWATs of 150-200% of normal. The cold frontal passage early Sunday morning through Sunday afternoon will usher in likely (75-90% chance) wetting rain (0.
A ridge remains over the area today with warm temperatures continuing. A trough from the Gulf of Alaska will bring a cold front to the area on Sunday, which will interact with the moisture already in place. Generally VFR with a cold frontal passage expected Sunday afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms are expected along the front, with the highest chances for precipitation north of the Snake Plain in the higher terrain of NE Oregon and central Idaho.
1218 PM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025 - Dry conditions will prevail for the first half of the weekend, accompanied by another round of warmer temperatures. At the same time, the upper-level pattern above the region shifts to a northwestern flow regime due to the dominant area of low pressure in the Northern Plains.
The fog is now gone as high pressure is clearing clouds from west to east across the western half of the state. The eastern half will remain cooler under cloud cover this afternoon. UPDATE Most of the low visibilities due to fog have increased above 3 miles. As such, fog has developed this morning mainly in areas west of the low-level stratus deck that also received wetting rains. Encroaching lowly amplified ridge will lead to a slight warming trend to finish out the weekend.
119 PM EDT Sat Sep 20 2025 A weak backdoor cold front will move south through NC later today and tonight.