Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Hi Res solutions continue to show a line of showers traversing the forecast area along a prefrontal trough axis tonight. A weakening cold front will move into the area from the north late in the day, which may also support a few light showers.
258 PM CST Tue Nov 5 2024 Through Wednesday: This afternoon, multiple clusters of showers with embedded thunderstorms are ongoing along and ahead of an approaching cold front. However, the cold front will begin to stall tonight, which will focus the precip axis in a corridor from central LA through northwest MS and eastern AR along the MS River through the daytime Wednesday.
1158 AM CST Tue Nov 5 2024 (Today through Wednesday) Key Messages: - Minor coastal flooding, high risk of rip currents, and hazardous marine conditions continue through mid week - "Cooler" temps in store behind this morning's cold front As of writing, a line of showers and storms, aided by an approaching cold front, is currently extending from Aguilares to Yoakum.
(Through Tonight) Cold front has been making steady progress through the region today and currently sits across far southeast Oklahoma up through Fort Smith. Temperatures have been fairly steady behind the front this afternoon, generally hanging in the upper 50s to lower 60s, while south of the front temps have risen into the lower 70s. Cooler temperatures are expected tonight as cooler and drier air filters in behind the boundary.
A cold front currently near the Illinois River will continue to move slowly east through this evening, with associated showers tapering off from west to east. Although gusty south winds were noted as high as 45 mph early this afternoon, winds should rapidly decrease this evening as strong 925 mb winds with the associated low pressure system shift northeast out of the area. Cooler air will advect into the area behind the front, yielding lows ranging from 40s west of I-55 to 50s to the east.
542 PM CST Tue Nov 5 2024 (Through Tonight) Cold front has been making steady progress through the region today and currently sits across far southeast Oklahoma up through Fort Smith. Temperatures have been fairly steady behind the front this afternoon, generally hanging in the upper 50s to lower 60s, while south of the front temps have risen into the lower 70s. Cooler temperatures are expected tonight as cooler and drier air filters in behind the boundary.
551 PM CST Tue Nov 5 2024 (This evening through Wednesday Night) Showers have exited the area with the passage of this morning's cold front, with the boundary itself now sitting offshore. This has ushered in a temporary end to the unseasonably warm and humid conditions of late, with surface stations this afternoon showing highs mainly in the lower to mid 70s and dew points in the 50s. With cooler and drier air filtering into the area overnight as a result of the shift to northerly flow, we will see lows drop into the upper 40s/low 50s for the northern zones and the upper 50s/lower 60s for Metro Houston and the coast. Wednesday will start off quite pleasantly, though warm and humid conditions will begin to return later in the afternoon as the aforementioned frontal boundary pushes back ashore as a warm front.
707 PM EST Tue Nov 5 2024 Upper ridge beginning to slide further into the W Atlantic as Plains states longwave trough slowly moves eastward. At the surface, tightening pressure gradient between strong high pressure in the W Atlantic and Tropical Storm Rafael in the NW Caribbean Sea will continue to produce breezy E-SE winds through Wednesday.
(This evening through Wednesday Night) Showers have exited the area with the passage of this morning's cold front, with the boundary itself now sitting offshore. This has ushered in a temporary end to the unseasonably warm and humid conditions of late, with surface stations this afternoon showing highs mainly in the lower to mid 70s and dew points in the 50s. With cooler and drier air filtering into the area overnight as a result of the shift to northerly flow, we will see lows drop into the upper 40s/low 50s for the northern zones and the upper 50s/lower 60s for Metro Houston and the coast. Wednesday will start off quite pleasantly, though warm and humid conditions will begin to return later in the afternoon as the aforementioned frontal boundary pushes back ashore as a warm front.
(This evening through Wednesday night) Upper trough extending from Lake Superior to Texas southward to east Texas. At the surface, a cold front was moving into western Louisiana.
312 PM CST Tue Nov 5 2024 - Drizzle Conditions Through Late Afternoon - Drier Middle of this Week - More Rain This Weekend Mid-level jetstreak is starting to exit the area but surface cyclone centered over the IA-MO stateline with thermal boundary parked across western Missouri. By Wednesday evening, closed mid-level low shifts northeastward into Canada, but a another wave digs southward from this PV anomaly and begins to form a deeper trough into the southern CONUS.
High pressure builds into the area tonight, resulting in areas of fog and frost by Wednesday morning.
High pressure will keep wind light. High pressure will build in behind the departing trough beginning early Wednesday, keeping the pattern dry through late week.
A strong cold front will move southward over the region tonight through mid day Wednesday, with a band of snow affecting mainly areas east of the Highway 89 and Interstate 17 corridor.
552 PM CST Tue Nov 5 2024 (This evening through Wednesday night) Upper trough extending from Lake Superior to Texas southward to east Texas. At the surface, a cold front was moving into western Louisiana.
Rain chances increase after 6am with an approaching cold front. KEY MESSAGES: -A passing cold front will return measurable rain to the region. Previous Discussion: A large-scale ridge over the East Coast will continue to prompt warm and dry conditions late this evening and into the early morning hours of Wednesday. Rain chances and wind gusts will increase as a cold front, currently over easter Illinois, advances east between 3am and 5am.
Overnight lows will range from the mid 40s in the cooler valleys to the upper 40s and low 50s elsewhere.
Rain chances increase after 6am with an approaching cold front. KEY MESSAGES: -A passing cold front will return measurable rain to the region. ------------------------------------------------------------------- A large-scale ridge over the East Coast will continue to promote warm and dry conditions late this evening and into a large portion of the overnight hours. Rain chances and wind gusts will increase as a cold front, currently over easter Illinois, advances east between 3am and 5am.
528 PM CST Tue Nov 5 2024 (This evening through Wednesday Night) A surface cold front continues to march eastward across the CWA this afternoon, with convection primarily focused across the eastern zones. Deterministic theta-e guidance looks to advertise that the main boundary will stall across the eastern zones this evening before gradually sliding NW as a warm front tomorrow afternoon.
544 PM CST Tue Nov 5 2024 - Drizzle Conditions Through Late Afternoon - Drier Middle of this Week - More Rain This Weekend Mid-level jetstreak is starting to exit the area but surface cyclone centered over the IA-MO stateline with thermal boundary parked across western Missouri. By Wednesday evening, closed mid-level low shifts northeastward into Canada, but a another wave digs southward from this PV anomaly and begins to form a deeper trough into the southern CONUS.
High pressure builds offshore of the Pacific Northwest as a significant upper low pressure system digs through the Great Basin, towards the Midwest. Light precip has been recorded in the mountainous areas and north valley in the low hundredths or trace amounts as of this afternoon. The higher elevations will be gusty, the main question is whether or not they mix down to the valleys.
712 PM CST Tue Nov 5 2024 Through Wednesday: This afternoon, multiple clusters of showers with embedded thunderstorms are ongoing along and ahead of an approaching cold front. However, the cold front will begin to stall tonight, which will focus the precip axis in a corridor from central LA through northwest MS and eastern AR along the MS River through the daytime Wednesday.
Scattered showers continue east of I-55, ahead of a cold front working its way eastward across the state. 37 A cold front currently near the Illinois River will continue to move slowly east through this evening, with associated showers tapering off from west to east. Although gusty south winds were noted as high as 45 mph early this afternoon, winds should rapidly decrease this evening as strong 925 mb winds with the associated low pressure system shift northeast out of the area. Cooler air will advect into the area behind the front, yielding lows ranging from 40s west of I-55 to 50s to the east.
436 PM CST Tue Nov 5 2024 (Tonight) Isolated pockets of light rain continue to push across the Tennessee Valley this afternoon ahead of an approaching cold front from the west.
Temperatures stay a tad warmer today and tomorrow, however remain unseasonably cool.
538 PM CST Tue Nov 5 2024 - Widespread precip is moving through the area along with a slow moving cold front.
(Today through Thursday) A cold front situated to our immediate west has slowed to a crawl. The 06Z HRRR shows the convection continuing to track very slowly eastward but also diminishing to the extent that all of the mid state might not measure precipitation with this cold front. We can expect a few degrees of cooling with the eventual passage of this pesky cold front, but temperatures look to remain above normal for the foreseeable future. (Thursday Night through next Wednesday) The next appreciable chance for rain won't happen until this weekend with the approach of another low pressure system.
* High pressure raises concerns for air stagnation from Thursday into the weekend, with valley inversions and hazy skies likely. A dry backdoor cold front passage early this morning is evident from recent mountain observations, with our easterly wind prone Sierra locations gusting well over 100 mph. Expect winds to continue ramping up through mid-morning, before tapering off through the remainder of the day as the associated trough continues digging southeast out of our region.
- Warmer and dry conditions into the weekend. Upper level low continues to rotate precipitation into the area from the north. Elsewhere across the area MTMeso showing less than an inch of accumulation for the lower elevations/foothills. Upper low is forecast to shift eastward this morning as jet stream over central Montana pushes southward, dragging most of the upper energy with it into the Great Basin. Expect mostly sunny skies across the area this afternoon allowing temperatures to climb above freezing, and into the lower 40s central and west. Ridging builds in from the west for Thursday for sunny warmer and dry conditions.
Currently an upper-level trough has developed over the northern Rockies and continues to deepen rapidly.
KEY MESSAGES: -A passing upper level wave and cold front will return measurable rain to the region. NBM probs for gusts > 30 mph range from 40 to 70%, with higher values on the ridge tops.
Early morning satellite imagery shows a broad region of high pressure situated over the NE Pacific which will continue to build into ERN Idaho through the start of the weekend.
A mid-level impulse rounding a ridge centered to our east should spawn a more prominent area of rain and some thunderstorms over Georgia today and this evening. The track of this feature should result in the highest rain chances, and rain totals potentially topping one inch, for the southeasternmost portion of our forecast area/southeast of Interstate 85.
Synoptically, the closed, cut-off low heads south into the Four Corners area today and should remain fairly stationary there the next few days. Lows Thursday morning are in the single digits west of the Continental Divide, with teens for much of the lower elevations east of the Divide. A warming trend occurs through the rest of the week, as that cut-off low remains to the south, and ridging from the west is barely able to influence Wyoming.
250 AM EST Wed Nov 6 2024 A cold front will bring scattered rain showers to the region today, although many locations south of the Southern Tier of New York will likely stay dry. Temperatures today will continue to be well above normal, before temperatures trend a bit cooler the remainder of the week. Observed temperatures are slightly warmer than guidance, so we bumped them up a degree or two for the next couple hours. A ridge of high pressure will slowly drift eastward tonight. Winds will calm some this evening but then increase tonight as a cold front approaches from the north. This cold front will bring rain showers to portions of central NY by Wednesday morning. Overnight, temps fall into the 40s and low 50s as cool, dry air filters in behind the cold front.
This boundary is currently now stalled off the coast and should be returning back north as a warm front tonight and Thursday. As it lifts back inland, look for some increasing cloud cover, warmer overnight lows and some scattered showers and isolated tstms.
In addition a secondary cold front will bring potential for scattered light rain showers and sprinkles. Winds veering to the west to nw this afternoon will advect a cooler airmass into our area. - Fair Weather Late This Week High pressure building in from the west will result in partly sunny skies and seasonably cool conditions beginning Thursday.
1143 PM CST Tue Nov 5 2024 - Drizzle Conditions Through Late Afternoon - Drier Middle of this Week - More Rain This Weekend Mid-level jetstreak is starting to exit the area but surface cyclone centered over the IA-MO stateline with thermal boundary parked across western Missouri. By Wednesday evening, closed mid-level low shifts northeastward into Canada, but a another wave digs southward from this PV anomaly and begins to form a deeper trough into the southern CONUS. Current deterministic guidance depicts remnant surface anticyclone over the upper-midwest that stalls a thermal boundary over the Ozarks, and prevents low-level flow from turning southwesterly.
(Wednesday through Thursday) The stalled cold front will continue to ebb and flow across the region today, which will help maintain rain chances in our eastern zones.
1108 PM CST Tue Nov 5 2024 (Tonight through Wednesday night) Key Messages: - Minor Coastal Flooding continues through the end of the week - "Cooler" temperatures especially tonight! In the wake of the front expect calmer conditions through the remainder of the week with a low chance for showers returning Thursday as the front retreats northwards. Highs will be in the low to mid 80s tomorrow which will be more "fall like".
Further west, behind the front, lows are expected to fall into the lower 60s (and possibly the upper 50s in a few isolated spots). The weak frontal boundary not expected to bring any significantly cooler air, as temperatures expected to remain above normal.
141 AM CST Wed Nov 6 2024 - Cooler conditions to close out the week.
An upper level ridge will begin to bring drier conditions to the area tonight and over the next couple days.
1253 AM CST Wed Nov 6 2024 - A slow moving cold front is located over southwest Indiana and western Kentucky this morning with a band of heavy rain and embedded storms. A cold front is currently located over the FA this morning as a band of rain and embedded storms is now moving across southwest Indiana and western Kentucky.
The cold front then moves through the region by approximately 11Z, bringing renewed potential for lower ceilings to MVFR through the morning hours. High pressure starts to build into the region by midday allowing for lighter westerly flow and an eventual improvement to VFR. Hi Res solutions continue to show a line of showers traversing the forecast area along a prefrontal trough axis tonight. A weakening cold front will move into the area from the north late in the day, which may also support a few light showers.
1118 PM CST Tue Nov 5 2024 (This evening through Wednesday Night) Showers have exited the area with the passage of this morning's cold front, with the boundary itself now sitting offshore. This has ushered in a temporary end to the unseasonably warm and humid conditions of late, with surface stations this afternoon showing highs mainly in the lower to mid 70s and dew points in the 50s. With cooler and drier air filtering into the area overnight as a result of the shift to northerly flow, we will see lows drop into the upper 40s/low 50s for the northern zones and the upper 50s/lower 60s for Metro Houston and the coast. Wednesday will start off quite pleasantly, though warm and humid conditions will begin to return later in the afternoon as the aforementioned frontal boundary pushes back ashore as a warm front.
Discussion: The next 24 hours of our warm November is characterized by the upper ridge off the southeastern coast beginning to erode, and an upper trough over the Rockies digging southwards to eventually close off a low over the Four Corners region. Closer to the surface and to our region, a cold front will stall out draped to our west over Middle Tennessee, and frontal rain showers will continue to weaken and even break up without entering East Tennessee.
1146 PM CST Tue Nov 5 2024 (This evening through Wednesday night) Upper trough extending from Lake Superior to Texas southward to east Texas. At the surface, a cold front was moving into western Louisiana.
Warm conveyor belt just ahead of the incoming cold front is feeding deep moisture (anomalously high PWATs near 1. The slow advance of the front will continue through the day, with precip intensity diminishing as the low-level jetting weakens.
Instability and moisture associated with an upper trough centered to our east was supporting showers across the area this afternoon, including the lower valleys. Snow levels are near valley floors, but valley temperatures are well above freezing so not anticipating any accumulation. Only additional light accumulations of less than an inch are expected in the higher elevations. Dry and cold northerly flow arrives on Wednesday as the trough exits to the east. An upper ridge follows on Thursday for dry conditions, light winds, and continued below normal temperatures.
351 AM EST Wed Nov 6 2024 A cold front will move through the local area today and exit to the southeast tonight.
Otherwise, a near normal fall day is on tap for eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas as weak high pressure prevails.
Winds and seas will gradually subside late in the week as the tropical cyclone moves farther away from Keys waters.
Today will begin with pleasant conditions following yesterday's cold front passage, but attention turns to another upper-level system deepening as it moves into the Four Corners region. This shift will allow warm and humid conditions to return as the aforementioned frontal boundary moves inland as a warm front.
1145 PM CST Tue Nov 5 2024 Wet weather will continue through Thursday as a cold front stalls out over the region.
1132 PM CST Tue Nov 5 2024 - Widespread precip is moving through the area along with a slow moving cold front.
323 AM EST Wed Nov 6 2024 A cold front will bring widespread showers today.
949 PM CST Tue Nov 5 2024 - Cooler, drier, and quieter conditions are forecast for the second half of the week. The showers will end by early evening over ern WI with the cold front to follow for later in the evening. Nwly sfc winds and cold advection will weaken on Wed with high pressure settling over srn WI for Wed nt. High temps in the lower to middle 50s for Wed.
High pressure builds into the area tonight, resulting in areas of fog and frost by Wednesday morning. Frost should be relatively more widespread Wednesday night into Thursday morning as temps dip into the low to mid 30s, except around 40 in Portland and the eastern metro.
208 AM EST Wed Nov 6 2024 High pressure will extend into the area from the northeast. Widespread cloud cover in the form of stratus clouds are expected to develop during the predawn hours and this should have an effect on the overnight lows keeping them a bit warmer and well above normal with lows in the low to mid 60s, nearly 15-20 degrees above normal. An upper level ridge will shift further east away from the forecast area in the short term. Because of the localized nature of the higher rain rates there is only a slight chance that widespread flash flooding will occur given such high FFG amounts. In the Augusta area where the highest rainfall totals are expected, median NBM rainfall amounts are around 2 inches.
High pressure over the Northern Plains early this morning will spread across the Midwest through the latter half of the week providing a break from the recent heavy rain that has impacted much of central Illinois.
342 AM CST Wed Nov 6 2024 - Cooler, drier, and quieter conditions are forecast for the second half of the week.
956 AM EST Wed Nov 6 2024 A cold front will bring widespread showers today.
537 AM CST Wed Nov 6 2024 - Cooler conditions to close out the week.
Reduced visibilities of less than a quarter mile are possible so ensure to use the low beams and reduce speeds if traveling on the roads this morning. There could also be a few slick spots on bridges or overpasses especially across western MN where temps have reach the upper 20s.
The warmer than normal temperatures and abnormally high moisture will contribute to additional record warm lows tonight. /22/ Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue over the next several days as an anomalously strong southeastern US upper ridge exerts continued control aloft with a remnant frontal boundary stalled across the area.
642 AM EST Wed Nov 6 2024 A cold front will bring widespread showers today.
Areas of low clouds and fog/freezing fog have developed in western Oregon, and in south central Oregon between Chemult and Paisley. Coverage is expected to be similar but trend toward a bit less coverage and faster erosion on Thursday morning, as the air mass dries under a ridge.
Strong high pressure continues to shift further east over the Atlantic and will weaken some as Hurricane Rafael moves north into the Gulf of Mexico later tonight. As Rafael weakens and eventually dissipates across the western Gulf this weekend, high pressure will build back in across the region.
432 AM CST Wed Nov 6 2024 - A slow moving cold front is located over southwest Indiana and western Kentucky this morning with a band of heavy rain and embedded storms. A cold front is currently located over the FA this morning as a band of rain and embedded storms is now moving across southwest Indiana and western Kentucky.
615 AM EST Wed Nov 6 2024 A cold front will move through the local area today and exit to the southeast tonight.
(Today through Thursday Night) The cold front has moved to far SERN sections of the state. drier/cooler air has settled over the area.
512 AM CST Wed Nov 6 2024 (Today through Thursday Night) The cold front has moved to far SERN sections of the state. drier/cooler air has settled over the area.
342 AM PST Wed Nov 6 2024 Drier and quieter weather is forecast through Thursday as high pressure moves over the area. Today through Thursday Night: An upper ridge will move over the region the next couple days providing dry weather. With the ridge 850mb temperature moderate, rising from -2C this morning to near 2-7C on Thursday. Also with the ridge some boundary layer moisture lingers over the ID Panhandle and NE Washington.
710 AM CST Wed Nov 6 2024 (Wednesday through Thursday) The stalled cold front will continue to ebb and flow across the region today, which will help maintain rain chances in our eastern zones.
(Now through Thursday night) The story remains the same with upper ridging centered from eastern Florida into the Bahamas keeping the forecast area under southwest flow aloft.