Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
(This evening through Tuesday night) Latest 19Z radar and satellite analysis shows a positive tilted broad H500 trough with its axis extending into portions of west Texas has allowed large scale lift for thunderstorms across the area. Around sunset, after losing daytime heating, along with subsidence in the wake of the passing trough, thunderstorm coverage will wane throughout the overnight hours tonight.
Stacked ridging well off the coast will persist through the period, and along with a mid/upper trough extending from the upper midwest to the southern plains, this ensures continued deep SW flow and abundant moisture across the area.
Warmer and drier conditions will return this weekend as upper level high pressure builds in across the region.
(Through tonight) A quasi-static mid-level trough axis overhead and a weak surface frontal boundary draped across northeast TX/southeast OK/western AR has been and will continue to produce isolated to locally scattered showers and thunderstorms, focused across far eastern/southeastern OK and portions of northwest AR into this evening. Mejia (Tomorrow through Monday) Consistency in short-medium model guidance suggest a mid/upper- level trough/axis remains positioned over the forecast area through much of the week. This will help sustain diurnally-driven showers and thunderstorms almost each day, especially for locations just downstream of the trough axis.
A weak and broad upper trough remains draped across the south central US, providing our local region with a light southwesterly flow aloft. Additionally, a ridge axis associated with high pressure over the Atlantic continues to extend westward into the northern and eastern Gulf of Mexico, helping to provide us with a light and persistent onshore (south to southwesterly) flow. Daytime highs will continue to be near or slightly below normal due to the high rain chances and associated cloud cover. Lows Monday tonight will range from the low 70s inland to the mid to upper 70s closer to and along the coast.
(This evening through Tuesday) An upper-level trough and series of upper-level disturbances traversing the area will keep a more active weather pattern across West Central Texas through Tuesday, with widespread showers and isolated to scattered thunderstorms remaining mostly south of the I-20 corridor. Cooler temperatures will prevail into Tuesday, with Tuesday's highs being close to what we saw today, in the 80s, expect over the Big Country where temperatures can reach into the upper 80s to mid 90s. (Tuesday night through next Monday) The prevailing high pressure across the southwestern US will shift east a bit and the trough across the eastern US will do the same.
- Drier weather and warming temperatures as ridge moves over the forecast area. - Storm chances may return this weekend as ridge moves east of the forecast area. Latest upper air analysis shows the ridge to the west, centered over Southern California. To the east the trough over the Plains was continuing to bring smoke south. Within the northerly flow was an embedded upper level short wave trough and MCV. The upper level ridge currently west of the forecast area gradually slides east. Toward the end of the week the upper level ridge moves east of the forecast area. This will allow the upper level flow to become from the southwest, and allow short wave troughs to move over the forecast area.
High temperatures today will rise into the lower to mid 90s for inland areas and into the upper 80s and lower 90s along the coast. Overnight low temperatures will drop down into the lower to mid 70s for inland areas and into upper to mid 70s closer to the shore.
Ridging remains in place aloft over the region through much of the week even as a TUTT makes its way westward and south of the area late this week into the weekend. At the surface, the Atlantic ridge axis will remain north of the local area, keeping a low-level southeast wind flow through the forecast period.
The pattern of a mid-level trough will remain in place through much or all of this week, but does start to break down some later in the week. MVFR to IFR flight conditions will accompany reduced visibilities, with the highest confidence of occurrence at KBBG.
611 PM CDT Mon Jul 22 2024 (This evening through Tuesday) Water vapor imagery this afternoon showed an upper-level trough over the eastern US and a ridge centered over the Gulf of California. The forecast area remains under northwest flow aloft in the short term as the base of the trough sits just to our east. 1000-500mb thicknesses increase tomorrow, implying warmer but still below average high temperatures given the recent rainfall.
508 PM MDT Mon Jul 22 2024 - The axis of persistent high pressure in the Great Basin begins to shift northeast and places Wyoming within the region of hot temperatures by midweek.
Lows tonight will be in the low to mid 70s. The pattern will remain stagnant with the upper level trough west of the region and a very moist air mass over the SE US. 5 inch range and with short waves expected to rotate through the base of the trough scattered to likely showers and thunderstorms will continue mainly in the afternoon and evening hours. Afternoon high temperatures will be in the low 90s each day with heat index values generally between 100 and 105.
626 PM CDT Mon Jul 22 2024 (Through tonight) A quasi-static mid-level trough axis overhead and a weak surface frontal boundary draped across northeast TX/southeast OK/western AR has been and will continue to produce isolated to locally scattered showers and thunderstorms, focused across far eastern/southeastern OK and portions of northwest AR into this evening. Mejia (Tomorrow through Monday) Consistency in short-medium model guidance suggest a mid/upper- level trough/axis remains positioned over the forecast area through much of the week. This will help sustain diurnally-driven showers and thunderstorms almost each day, especially for locations just downstream of the trough axis.
1014 PM EDT Mon Jul 22 2024 High pressure will persist across the Atlantic while weak low pressure lingers across the Southeast.
741 PM EDT Mon Jul 22 2024 Weak mid level disturbances will ripple through a slow moving large scale mid level trough, keeping the threat of showers and thunderstorms in the forecast into mid week.
An upper level low continues to spin in the Gulf of Alaska, bringing onshore flow and cloudy conditions in the mornings.
600 PM CDT Mon Jul 22 2024 (This evening through Tuesday) An upper-level trough and series of upper-level disturbances traversing the area will keep a more active weather pattern across West Central Texas through Tuesday, with widespread showers and isolated to scattered thunderstorms remaining mostly south of the I-20 corridor. Cooler temperatures will prevail into Tuesday, with Tuesday's highs being close to what we saw today, in the 80s, expect over the Big Country where temperatures can reach into the upper 80s to mid 90s. (Tuesday night through next Monday) The prevailing high pressure across the southwestern US will shift east a bit and the trough across the eastern US will do the same.
Also updated hourly temperatures to account for the rain-cooled atmosphere that wasn't caught by the diurnal temperature curve but did not touch forecast min temps as cooler locations currently will likely not fall too much more through the night. This unsettled pattern will continue with a near repeat performance on Tuesday as the primary trough axis settles overhead.
809 PM EDT Mon Jul 22 2024 High pressure will persist across the Atlantic while weak low pressure lingers across the Southeast.
642 PM CDT Mon Jul 22 2024 (This evening through Tuesday night) Latest 19Z radar and satellite analysis shows a positive tilted broad H500 trough with its axis extending into portions of west Texas has allowed large scale lift for thunderstorms across the area. Around sunset, after losing daytime heating, along with subsidence in the wake of the passing trough, thunderstorm coverage will wane throughout the overnight hours tonight.
Monsoonal moisture will continue to be recycled under the ridge resulting in continued chances for afternoon showers and thunderstorms through mid-to-late week. Temperatures will remain hotter than normal as the ridge remains positioned overhead.
928 PM EDT Mon Jul 22 2024 Weak mid level disturbances will ripple through a slow moving large scale mid level trough, keeping the threat of showers and thunderstorms in the forecast into mid week.
As we head through the overnight, the speed max will intensify and become more cyclonically-curved, in advance of of an upper trough dropping into the southern plains. Warmer and drier conditions will return this weekend as upper level high pressure builds in across the region.
Atlantic ridging will build back across the Florida Peninsula and into the Gulf of Mexico Tuesday through the rest of the week, with moderate east to southeast breezes prevailing across the Keys coastal waters.
mainly associated with a 925-mb to 850-mb wind shift boundary within the area of the 700-mb trof axis. the surface frontal boundary is progged to remain near the Red River while the 700-mb trof axis continues to hold southwest to northeast across the CWA. (Tomorrow through Monday) Consistency in short-medium model guidance suggest a mid/upper- level trough/axis remains positioned over the forecast area through much of the week. This will help sustain diurnally-driven showers and thunderstorms almost each day, especially for locations just downstream of the trough axis.
(This afternoon through Tuesday) A broad area of upper-level troughing encompasses the eastern half or so of the CONUS, with north and central GA beneath southwesterly flow. No significant pattern change will take place tomorrow (Tuesday) with continued upper-level troughing as well as similar moisture and instability parameters to today (although maybe slightly greater PWAT and an even more saturated atmospheric column tomorrow).
* Widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms expected Wednesday, ahead and along of a cold front.
A cold front tomorrow will bring a better chance (30-50%) of showers and thunderstorms to the area, with strong gusts and flash flooding concerns.
147 AM EDT Tue Jul 23 2024 Weak mid level disturbances will ripple through a slow moving large scale mid level trough, keeping the threat of showers and thunderstorms in the forecast into mid week.
0" for Wed while the highest values will be over the west and NW coast.
Lows will be in the low 70s with highs in the 80s for most of the area.
A 500 MB trough remains in place across the area this afternoon into tonight. Temperatures in the lower to mid 80s and dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s will allow CAPE of 1500 to 2500 J/KG to build across the area. High pressure will build in later in the day into Wednesday night, ushering in a drier air mass and an end to the daily rain chances.
1057 PM MDT Mon Jul 22 2024 - The axis of persistent high pressure in the Great Basin begins to shift northeast and places Wyoming within the region of hot temperatures by midweek.
Tuesday afternoon should feature similar activity as this afternoon's with showers and storms developing along the high terrain early in the afternoon, then spreading south and westward as the afternoon progresses. By mid-week, the current synoptic pattern with high pressure over the Great Basin region will shift eastward and expand. Heading towards the weekend, a low pressure system will swing down across the Great Basin region, ultimately pushing/weakening the upper-level ridge. Clearing sky cover overnight before another round of showers and storms begins to develop by 19Z over the high terrain.
pdf High pressure over the western Atlantic will continue to support south- southeast flow, allowing for the Atlantic sea breeze to move inland once again. Daytime highs will again sit in the lower to mid 90s with heat index values expected to range from the 100F to 107F range.
129 AM EDT Tue Jul 23 2024 High pressure will persist across the Atlantic while weak low pressure lingers across the Southeast.
1229 AM CDT Tue Jul 23 2024 (This evening through Wednesday) The break from typical July heat will continue thru the short term, as a broad upper level trof remains in place across the area thru the short term. The main area of interest today, aside from the trof, is a slow- moving warm frontal boundary that has moved into northern Louisiana. The irony with all of this is that areas north of the warm front tomorrow and Wednesday will likely be warmer than areas behind it, due to cloudiness and rain chances. I am fairly confident there will be some fog development overnight along and ahead of the slow-moving warm front.
Water vapor imagery this morning shows a large troughing pattern over the eastern CONUS, and moist, southwest flow remains in place over Middle TN. Similar conditions are then in store Wednesday as the trough remains in place as does our moist, southwest flow. The troughing pattern remains in place through the remainder of this week with daily rounds of showers and storms. By this weekend, however, the pattern does begin to change as an upper-level ridge builds over the area. But with high pressure building and lesser storm coverage, this also means that our temperatures begin to warm back up, and we look to be back in the 90s by this weekend.
1207 AM CDT Tue Jul 23 2024 (This evening through Tuesday) Water vapor imagery this afternoon showed an upper-level trough over the eastern US and a ridge centered over the Gulf of California. The forecast area remains under northwest flow aloft in the short term as the base of the trough sits just to our east. 1000-500mb thicknesses increase tomorrow, implying warmer but still below average high temperatures given the recent rainfall.
(Today through Wednesday) The northern extent of a tropical wave and a mid-level area of low pressure approach the region from the Bahamas over the next couple of days. On Wednesday, The tropical wave will continue to move northwest and away from Florida, as the ridge of high pressure over the Western Atlantic waters builds into the Florida Peninsula. High temperatures will reach the lower 90s across the area each day with heat index values flirting with Heat Advisory criteria.
The axis of a broad trough extends from the Great Lakes to the southern Plains, while a high amplitude ridge continues over the west. A few showers may linger into early Wednesday as the front/upper trough are slow to clear the region, however dry air will begin impinging on the area as a Canadian high pressure drops south. Temps and humidity steadily increase as southerly low level flow returns beneath the dislodged and deamplifying western conus ridge. The GFS/GEFS solutions traps a Gulf Coast low beneath the ridge and swings it north through the Plains, which could bring rain chances back into the state for the weekend.
- Moderate river flooding continues on portions of the Mississippi River with minor flooding on the lower Rock River. The upper low that has aided in developing the brief funnel clouds the past three days has weakened and moved away from the area.
Cooler than normal temps wl cont to headline the short term amidst precip and prominent cloud covg condns. Area readings should only top out in the low to mid 80s this aftn, and slightly incrs to the mid to upper 80s by Wed aftn as warm air advection ramps up.
Defined by the upper level ridging partnered with the atlantic ridge axis centered to the north of the local area.
Periods of rain and embedded thunderstorms may persist for much of the overnight period on Tuesday night/Wednesday morning, with most global models suggesting that another mid-level disturbance (originating across the northwestern Gulf of Mexico) will travel northeastward around the western rim of the Atlantic subtropical ridge and enhance coverage of showers and storms once again on Wednesday. Latest short term model consensus indicates that the synoptic pattern may begin to transition to one less favorable for widespread precipitation on Wednesday night, as the longwave trough axis may shift far enough southeastward to reduce the magnitude gradient flow aloft across the TN Valley.
(Today and tonight) Warmer and drier conditions can be expected from today through the rest of the week. The upper level ridge over the southwestern US will continue to be suppressed by a large trough moving into the northwestern US. However, this ridge will shift more eastward resulting in rising heights over West Texas. This will bring warmer temperatures this afternoon but still slightly below seasonal averages. A cumulus field will likely develop today given the warmer temperatures but much drier air aloft will exist in addition to a minimum in near surface theta-e values.
The mid-level trough axis bringing upper level support for showers and thunderstorms begins to shift east Tuesday night into Wednesday. High temperatures continue to trend on the cool side with afternoon temperatures from the low 80s to the low 90s today.
A northwest wind will transport smoke from fires in e-central Oregon into SW Idaho overnight bringing a notable increase in smoke to the lower Snake Plain Tuesday morning though likely not reaching Twin Falls and Jerome. Thunderstorms chances will increase Wednesday afternoon and especially Wednesday night as monsoon moisture surges strongly northward ahead of an approaching cold front from the west. This could develop into a thunderstorm outbreak as the cold front moves in. The cold front will end the current heat wave.
Mild low temperatures will range near to just above normal values from the lower 70s inland to upper 70s toward the Atlantic coast. High temperatures today will rise into the lower to mid 90s for inland areas and into the upper 80s and lower 90s along the coast. Overnight low temperatures will drop down into the lower to mid 70s for inland areas and into upper to mid 70s closer to the shore. (Tuesday through Wednesday night) Atlantic high pressure ridge axis remains across NE FL maintaining SSE flow through mid-week. Daytime highs will be in the low to mid 90s and overnight lows in the 70s.
1206 AM CDT Tue Jul 23 2024 (This evening through Tuesday) An upper-level trough and series of upper-level disturbances traversing the area will keep a more active weather pattern across West Central Texas through Tuesday, with widespread showers and isolated to scattered thunderstorms remaining mostly south of the I-20 corridor. Cooler temperatures will prevail into Tuesday, with Tuesday's highs being close to what we saw today, in the 80s, expect over the Big Country where temperatures can reach into the upper 80s to mid 90s.
Broad longwave troughing at 500 mb remains over the region with weak flow throughout the troposphere. Temperatures this afternoon should top out in the low to mid 80s. Similar synoptic and mesoscale conditions continue into tomorrow, although the western anticyclone migrates slightly further east into the Great Basin, sending slightly higher mid level heights into the region from the west. This will yield warmer temperatures for tomorrow afternoon (mid 80s) with isolated afternoon pop up showers that will cease by tomorrow evening with the loss of daytime heating. By Wednesday, the western anticyclone and associated ridge expands even further east, sending even higher 500 mb heights over the region, and should result in afternoon high temperatures ranging from the upper 80s to the lower 90s.
130 AM CDT Tue Jul 23 2024 (This evening through Tuesday night) Latest 19Z radar and satellite analysis shows a positive tilted broad H500 trough with its axis extending into portions of west Texas has allowed large scale lift for thunderstorms across the area. Around sunset, after losing daytime heating, along with subsidence in the wake of the passing trough, thunderstorm coverage will wane throughout the overnight hours tonight.
Outside of fog chances, yet another day with low end shower chances can be expected with the trough overhead. As far as temperatures go, we will be a bit warmer this afternoon with highs in the mid to upper 80s (much closer to normal than the previous several days). By Wednesday we will finally kick toughing to the east of our forecast area and we will begin to see influences from stout ridging to our west. Wednesday afternoon we can expect most to see upper 80s with southern and western parts of the forecast area breaking into the low 90s.
341 AM EDT Tue Jul 23 2024 Weak mid level disturbances will ripple through a slow moving large scale mid level trough, keeping the threat of showers and thunderstorms in the forecast into mid week.
Wednesday morning lows fall back into the 60s for most with low 50s seen in the higher elevations. The Four Corners ridge begins to meander back in place bringing back a more typical summer pattern with northwest flow aloft and highs in the low to mid 90s.
An upper level trough will slowly move east through the region today. The upper level trough will move off to the east on Wednesday as an upper level ridge builds east into the Plains.
1220 AM CDT Tue Jul 23 2024 Several areas received a lot of rainfall with today's storms with the highest amount observed so far coming in from Fairview with 1. (Rest of today through Tuesday) The pattern remains the same with an upper trough lingering to our west. Late tonight and into Tuesday morning the trough deepens slightly.
-A cold front will cross the area overnight into Wednesday.
Temperatures this afternoon will run a few degrees warmer (in the upper-80s to mid-90s) compared to previous days as an upper ridge begins to expand eastward across the Plains.
- Drier weather builds in alongside the warmer temps for the remainder of 7-day forecast. An upper level low over IL/MI continues its eastward departure while a high amplitude ridge begins to push into the Central Plains from the western CONUS. Temperatures this afternoon will peak in the low 80s followed by PoPs tapering off through the night.
With the clouds and good rain chances, highs today should be on the cooler side, only in the lower 80s - versus normal highs of around 92 degrees.
An upper-level trough axis dips southwestward from the Great Lakes toward the Texas Hill Country, with the right entrance region of the associated jet stream situated over the Lower Mississippi River Valley region. Deep tropical moisture remains pooled east of the trough, and the added lift and flow aloft will support waves or rain through the period. We remain situated between an upper level trough across the central states with an associated stalled front and ridging over the southeastern states. Upper level low pressure system will be moving into Great Lakes to northeast by late week.
Convection initiated over the higher terrain of eastern Oregon this afternoon and isolated thunderstorms are tracking northeast across Union and Wallowa counties.
However, additional isolated convection remains to our west across Mississippi, and there's a couple flow-embedded perturbations sitting across the Lower Mississippi Valley overnight.
Tuesday afternoon should feature similar activity as this afternoon's with showers and storms developing along the high terrain early in the afternoon, then spreading south and westward as the afternoon progresses. By mid-week, the current synoptic pattern with high pressure over the Great Basin region will shift eastward and expand. Heading towards the weekend, a low pressure system will swing down across the Great Basin region, ultimately pushing/weakening the upper-level ridge. Expect clearing sky cover overnight before another round of showers and storms begins to develop by 19Z over the high terrain.
Surface analysis places an expansive area of high pressure over much of the North Atlantic, with its axis bisecting the Florida First Coast. Temperatures should have no trouble reaching the lower 90s this afternoon under likely ample solar insolation. High pressure will waver in the North Atlantic both in terms of strength and location.