Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
339 AM EDT Mon Oct 21 2024 High pressure sinking south will keep broad southwest flow over the region through midweek.
(Today and tonight) As of 2 AM CDT, the upper low can be seen spinning over southwest Colorado on mid-level satellite water vapor imagery. Isolated thunder remains possible with the weak shower activity, but any storm that develops will be elevated and remain sub-severe with the better ascent and instability north of the forecast area and closer to the upper low. The window for instability will remain short with the setting sun and cooler surface temperatures, along with a loss of the better forcing aloft as the upper low ejects northeastward.
Water vapor imagery currently shows an upper low spinning over central CO with some additional upper energy coming onshore over the Pacific Northwest. At the surface, high pressure encompasses the southeast CONUS with return flow remaining across the Plains. Storms are currently ongoing from eastern CO into far western KS in an area of strong mid level moisture transport ahead of the upper low. By 18z, upper low is expected to be moving into far northwest KS/southwest Nebraska with a narrow corridor of 60 degree dewpoints west of I-135. By 12z Tue, upper low will be located over central IA with storms exiting into the Ozark region. This will allow a weak cold front to push through the area Tue night into Wed morning and will knock highs back into the 70s for most locations on Wed.
208 AM MDT Mon Oct 21 2024 KEY MESSAGES: - Pacific cold front arrives today, with widespread rain across north-central Idaho and northwest Montana.
As the upper low over the Four Corners continues to lift northward into the central Plains tonight into tomorrow, deep Q-vector convergence largely becomes focused downstream over KS/NE eastward into the MO Valley.
(Today through Tuesday) An upper level ridge will build over our area today into Tuesday as an upper level low over the Central Rockies opens into a trough and moves over the Central Plains today to the western Great Lakes on Tuesday. The surface ridging that has kept the deeper lower level moisture over our western areas will drift off to the east allowing a moist southerly flow to return to all areas tonight into Tuesday. Although the moisture depth becomes shallower with no rain forecast as subsidence takes hold under the ridges, cannot rule out a few sprinkles in the early morning hours due to the low level jet.
(Today through Tuesday Night) Ridging over the East/Central CONUS will continue to bring warm and benign weather through the first half of the work week. While the mid/upper level ridge will be flattened by a disturbance passing through the Mid Mississippi River Valley, little change in thicknesses and southeasterly winds suggest continued warming through Tuesday. Highs should be in the 80s inland and upper 70s along the coast today, reaching the lower 90s on Tuesday. Lows for tonight/Tuesday morning will be in the lower 50s/lower 60s inland and mid 60s/lower 70s along the coast.
Deep layer ridging throughout the atmospheric column will continue to bring ample subsidence, low humidity, and gradually warming temperatures to the forecast area. This results in highs warming slightly above average into the low to mid 80s on Monday and Tuesday.
1238 AM CDT Mon Oct 21 2024 (This evening through Monday) The upper low is beginning to make its northeastward trek to the Four Corners before moving eastward across Colorado tomorrow. This activity will slowly build southward this afternoon and begin slowly pushing eastward late tonight as the upper low pushes eastward.
339 AM CDT Mon Oct 21 2024 - A cold front will bring a 20 to 60 percent chance of light rain across the northern half of the state mainly late tonight through Tuesday morning, along with breezy to windy conditions late tonight through the day Tuesday. The highest rain chances are closer to the Canadian border. This will bring the return of sub- freezing temperatures with most locations forecast to drop into the 20s.
Another dry week is expected as high pressure continues.
125 AM EDT Mon Oct 21 2024 Dry high pressure persists through the forecast period.
- Rain shower chances (40-80%) increase Tuesday morning and afternoon ahead of an incoming cold front Tuesday night.
1155 PM EDT Sun Oct 20 2024 High pressure brings above normal temperatures and sunny weather through at least Tuesday.
Troughing will bring cooler temperatures, unsettled weather Monday into early Tuesday.
1209 AM CDT Mon Oct 21 2024 Surface and upper-level ridging is continuing to bring dry weather to the Lower Mississippi Valley this evening.
Cooler, more seasonable temps expected for mid week.
318 AM EDT Mon Oct 21 2024 High pressure today will exit off the coast Tuesday.
1142 PM CDT Sun Oct 20 2024 (Rest of tonight) Dry north-northwest flow aloft of 15-25 knots will persist across the TN Valley overnight, as our region will remain located to the east of an amplified 500-mb ridge extending from the northwestern Gulf of Mexico into the Mid-MS Valley.
Light winds and mostly sunny skies can be expected for the next few days as high pressure settles in over the area.
347 AM EDT Mon Oct 21 2024 High pressure persists over the region through midweek.
1254 AM EDT Mon Oct 21 2024 Dry high pressure will prevail through late week. Tonight: Aloft, the local area will remain along the eastern fringes of a ridge extending from the Gulf of Mexico to the mid Mississippi River/Ohio River Valley. At the sfc, a large area of high pressure centered across eastern Kentucky/Tennessee and the Central Appalachians will remain the primary weather contributor across the Southeast United States, keeping all areas dry under clear skies. A few locations could reach the low 40s well inland and north of Lake Moultrie. Deep layered ridging will persist to the west, as a deep upper level low develops well off the North Carolina coast.
An Upper level pattern expected to divert moisture away from the western Gulf under a modifying ridge pattern through the early week. 30 (Tonight through Tuesday night) The ridge axis in the mid to upper levels is currently situated directly over the region, while at the surface, expansive high pressure resides from the mid MS Valley to the Appalachian Mountains. An upper low near the Four Corners will lift northeast across CO tonight and into the central CONUS by Monday. This will flatten the ridge over the region, with flow aloft transitioning more zonal going into the early part of the week. Winds will continue to lighten as the ridge settles over the region.
The ridging should start to be pushed further east into the new week as a weak disturbance enters the Midwest. The cut off upper low over the SW CONUS is slowly ejecting out towards the Plains.
- Ahead of the rain Monday, some locations may experience very high fire danger once again with breezy conditions and highs in the lower 80s. The closed upper low that is spinning across the 4 corners region will slowly move toward our area and bring the first chance of meaningful rain in the past 30 days. Before the rain arrives later on Monday, low temperatures tonight drop into the lower to middle 50s. And highs Monday could again reach the lower 80s, and with the breezy southwest winds and dry conditions, very high fire danger will once again develop.
High pressure centered north of FL will maintain a breezy NE flow across the area today. We reside in broad northeasterly flow courtesy of a gradient between 1030 hPa high pressure over Kentuckiana and Hurricane Oscar, which made landfall over eastern Cuba a few hours ago. Low temps will fall into the mid/upper 60s far interior to the low/mid 70s beachside.
441 AM EDT Mon Oct 21 2024 High pressure, both surface and aloft, will remain over the region into the middle of this week. Strong high pressure remains locked in overhead, resulting in continued dry weather and warm, above normal afternoon temperatures. With flow becoming more southerly temperatures this afternoon will warm into the low/mid 70s in the mountains to upper 70s in the east.
(Today through Tuesday Night) High pressure is expected to control the weather pattern through much of the period.
H5 upper ridging moves eastward today, giving way to an upper trough that will bring our next chance for precipitation. Rain chances gradually increase late this evening ahead of the main trough axis, with showers struggling to reach the surface initially. Looking at instability, we see persistent MUCAPE in the range of 200-600 J/Kg, leading to a continued mention of thunder along the leading edge of the trough axis. 10 inch of rain along the Highway 2 corridor. Cooler air follows this trough, with a low chance for light wrap around precipitation Tuesday evening near Lake of the Woods.
In the meantime, the trough over the four corners region will lift northeast towards the upper Midwest. /Canadian border, dragging the associated cold front into the region by late Monday night. Dry and slightly warmer temperatures are expected on Monday ahead of the system with highs between 75 and 80 degrees. As the southern stream trough lifts northeast it will weaken. However, despite weak moisture return ahead of the cold front and little to no instability, will see light rain develop over Kansas and western Missouri and move into portions of central Missouri late Monday night. As the trough weakens even more on Tuesday, the rain will taper off by midday. With somewhat slow movement of the cold front, highs on Tuesday will be in the upper 70s to mid 80s, around 15 degrees above normal.
- An upper level low will bring the best chance for widespread precip we have seen across the local area in almost a month on Monday.
Tonight's lows will range from the low 70s over the interior and Gulf Coast, to the mid 70s over the East Coast.
1209 AM CDT Mon Oct 21 2024 (Tonight through Monday night) During the short term period a mid-level low over the Four Corners will move east into the Central Plains while a ridge of high pressure will flatten over eastern Texas into the Mississippi Valley. At the surface broad high pressure over the eastern half of the US will continue to drift east with long easterly fetch continuing. Elevated seas along the Lower Texas Coast will continue to support a High Risk of rip currents at the local beaches through at least sunset Monday, with coastal flooding conditions until the late night hours of Monday.
High pressure will build into northern Arizona over the coming week, bringing warmer temperatures and dry conditions. With the lack of cloud cover, radiational cooling should allow for much of the area to dip a little cooler than last night.
1159 PM MDT Sun Oct 20 2024 Updated Aviation Discussion Expect decreasing winds tonight, while a Pacific cold front approaches Montana from the west. The cold front will move across Montana on Monday, resulting in snow in the mountains along the Rocky Mountain Front, and light rain showers over the Plains. It dries out on Tuesday, but will be a bit cooler. Cooler temps for a few days starting Tue Brisk westerly winds over the CWA this afternoon will diminish this evening, as a Pacific cold front moves towards MT from the west. For the rest of the week, it is cooler on Tue, but dries out and warms up a bit for Wed.
An upper level closed low now over the four corners region will dampen, while ejecting east-northeastward during this period.
121 AM EDT Mon Oct 21 2024 High pressure will remain over the area through Monday before slowly drifting towards the Mid-Atlantic Coast by Tuesday.
- Very warm days and cool nights will start the week with highs approaching or in the lower 80s with nighttime lows in the 40s.
317 AM CDT Mon Oct 21 2024 - Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected today as a storm system and associated cold front crosses the area.
252 AM CDT Mon Oct 21 2024 Dry and warmer conditions will remain the forecast theme over the upcoming week. With low and midlevel ridging persisting across our region, we'll see high temperatures continue to trend upward today and continuing through the work week. By the weekend, a mid/upper trough will push a cold front southward toward the area, but the front will stall as it approaches or moves into the area.
322 AM EDT Mon Oct 21 2024 High pressure remains in charge, with sunny days and warmer afternoons into midweek.
1053 PM MDT Sun Oct 20 2024 - Above normal temperatures return and continue through the week under high pressure.
1231 AM CDT Mon Oct 21 2024 - Temperatures much warmer than normal and dry conditions continue for Monday. - A cold front will bring another round of showers and a few embedded thunderstorms across the Northland on Tuesday. We will sit under this upper level ridge for Monday and into Tuesday. Patchy fog is possible tonight near sunrise, but warmer low temperatures and drying lower levels may prevent fog from forming away from lakes. The upper level closed low that's been stationary in the southwest CONUS will move northeast with a trough further north in Canada Monday night.
The high clouds that were across the north have pushed into the Minnesota arrowhead now. UPDATE High clouds continue to stream across the northern half of the FA, or basically along and north of the highway 200 corridor.
Dew point temperatures remain in the low 40s with a steady lack of moisture influx. As the cut off low moves closer to the area, the track will begin to shift to the northeast as it overrides the northwestern portion of the ridge. Ensemble guidance suggests a 60%-70% chance of winds gusting to 20 mph ahead of the low. With passage of the cold front, expect slightly cooler temperatures for the second half of the week (low to mid 70s).
(Today and tonight) Upper low now over southern Colorado will move east and northeast into Nebraska today. A narrow corridor of higher moisture to the east of the dryline, pool of cooler air aloft and favorable wind profile will create an area of higher instability (750-1250 J/kg of CAPE) and modest/strong deep layer shear for severe thunderstorm development. Warmer boundary layer air will begin to move into the area this afternoon and outside where precip occurs temperatures are expected to warm a few degrees higher over Sundays highs. A few showers and thunderstorms will linger through the overnight period tonight across north central into central Oklahoma as the upper low continues to lift northeast away from the area.
411 AM EDT Mon Oct 21 2024 (Today through Tuesday) Key Messages: - Slightly warmer temps continue to build in today and tomorrow.
- Dry weather is forecast for Tuesday through Monday, with generally mild day to day temperatures that will be modulated by weak cold fronts. An upper level low will move eastward across northern Kansas today. This activity will be spotty and average rain amounts will be a quarter inch or less for most of southwest Kansas, with the highest amounts up to. In the wake of the above mentioned system, a dry and mild pattern will develop across the high plains that will persist for several days.
Low shower chances during the late afternoon hours continue in western parts of Osage and Pawnee counties, but the timing of the showers and the low coverage should not do much to reduce the overall fire weather threat.
The increased moisture will help keep lows from dropping into the 40s tonight, and could remain in the low 60s in the Twin Cities metro, which may tie or break the record of 62. It will be a few degrees warmer with widespread low to mid 80s. An upper low will approach from the southwest Monday night. Meanwhile, a cold front will also be approaching from the northwest later Tuesday. Cooler air will return midweek, more typical of late October.
Lows will be in the low to mid 50s though, so cool nights warm days which is quite the norm for October.
Upper level ridging over the Tennessee Valley continues to support a warm and dry pattern.
Discussion: Currently early this morning, ridging is approaching from the west ahead of a closed upper low.
413 AM CDT Mon Oct 21 2024 - Well above normal temperatures today, with highs in the upper 70s to the lower 80s (15 to 25 degrees above normal).
922 AM EDT Mon Oct 21 2024 High pressure today will exit off the coast Tuesday.
641 AM EDT Mon Oct 21 2024 High pressure persists over the region through midweek.
929 AM EDT Mon Oct 21 2024 High pressure remains in charge, with sunny days and warmer afternoons into midweek.
A short wave trough to the north and flat ridge to the south will keep Interior Central California in zonal flow today.
Dry weather return in the wake of the front as high pressure rebuilds.
Meanwhile aloft, a strong ridge stretching from the Gulf of Mexico eastward to the western Caribbean is also beginning to erode, indicated by falling geopotential heights at all isobaric levels sampled in this morning's 12z sounding at KEY. Temperatures are generally near 80F, with dew points in the lower 70s. Slight measurable rain chances still seem appropriate for this first period (if not a bit on the high side). From synopsis, a broad high pressure system over the eastern United States will promote fresh to strong northeast breezes through tonight. Breezes will gradually slacken through the midweek, as the high slowly retreats northward. Breezes will freshen once again by this weekend, as another high pressure system builds over the Eastern Seaboard.
754 AM MDT Mon Oct 21 2024 A cold front brings lower elevation rain with mountain snow along the northern Continental Divide today. Cooler temperatures settle in Tuesday through the rest of the work week.
621 AM CDT Mon Oct 21 2024 - Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected today as a storm system and associated cold front crosses the area.
Very similar set up to yesterday with ridging over the eastern US and breezy north to northeast winds (speeds at 15-20 mph, with gusts to around 25-30 mph) across east central Florida. Seasonable temperatures today, with afternoon highs in the low to mid 80s and overnight lows in the upper 60s to low 70s. High pressure over the eastern US, though weakening, will maintain poor to hazardous boating conditions through much of this week. Winds look to diminish slightly mid to late week, as the ridge weakens and a weak, dry cool front pushes southward through the area.
Ridging over the region will keep daytime temperatures pleasant for late October on Monday and Tuesday.
533 AM CDT Mon Oct 21 2024 (Today through Tuesday Night) Ridging over the East/Central CONUS will continue to bring warm and benign weather through the first half of the work week. While the mid/upper level ridge will be flattened by a disturbance passing through the Mid Mississippi River Valley, little change in thicknesses and southeasterly winds suggest continued warming through Tuesday. Highs should be in the 80s inland and upper 70s along the coast today, reaching the lower 90s on Tuesday. Lows for tonight/Tuesday morning will be in the lower 50s/lower 60s inland and mid 60s/lower 70s along the coast.
344 AM MDT Mon Oct 21 2024 - A few showers over the Pikes Peak Region this morning, then drier and breezy behind departing upper low this afternoon. As upper low moves into the central plains today, moisture and lift wrapping around the system will combine with rather steep lapse rates to generate a round of showers over the Central Mountains and the Pikes Peak Region, with most activity occurring this morning.
912 AM EDT Mon Oct 21 2024 High pressure persists over the region through midweek.
603 AM EDT Mon Oct 21 2024 High pressure remains in charge, with sunny days and warmer afternoons into midweek.
630 AM CDT Mon Oct 21 2024 (Today and tonight) As of 2 AM CDT, the upper low can be seen spinning over southwest Colorado on mid-level satellite water vapor imagery. Isolated thunder remains possible with the weak shower activity, but any storm that develops will be elevated and remain sub-severe with the better ascent and instability north of the forecast area and closer to the upper low. The window for instability will remain short with the setting sun and cooler surface temperatures, along with a loss of the better forcing aloft as the upper low ejects northeastward.
906 AM EDT Mon Oct 21 2024 High pressure, both surface and aloft, will remain over the region into the middle of this week. Strong high pressure remains locked in overhead, resulting in continued dry weather and warm, above normal afternoon temperatures. With flow becoming more southerly temperatures this afternoon will warm into the low/mid 70s in the mountains to upper 70s in the east.
643 AM EDT Mon Oct 21 2024 High pressure, both surface and aloft, will remain over the region into the middle of this week. Strong high pressure remains locked in overhead, resulting in continued dry weather and warm, above normal afternoon temperatures. With flow becoming more southerly temperatures this afternoon will warm into the low/mid 70s in the mountains to upper 70s in the east.
603 AM CDT Mon Oct 21 2024 (Today through Tuesday) An upper level ridge will build over our area today into Tuesday as an upper level low over the Central Rockies opens into a trough and moves over the Central Plains today to the western Great Lakes on Tuesday. The surface ridging that has kept the deeper lower level moisture over our western areas will drift off to the east allowing a moist southerly flow to return to all areas tonight into Tuesday. Although the moisture depth becomes shallower with no rain forecast as subsidence takes hold under the ridges, cannot rule out a few sprinkles in the early morning hours due to the low level jet.
High pressure ridging has moved east of our area with southwest flow aloft over our area ahead of a weak cold front that will move through our area late today into Tuesday.
556 AM MDT Mon Oct 21 2024 Aviation Section Updated A cold front brings lower elevation rain with mountain snow along the northern Continental Divide today. Cooler temperatures settle in Tuesday through the rest of the work week.
535 AM EDT Mon Oct 21 2024 High pressure dominates the local weather pattern through the week, allowing for dry conditions to continue. Temperatures remain mild early this week before the next cold front pushes through by mid week, bringing near normal temperatures. Current sfc analysis depicts high pressure overhead with clear skies, calm winds, and temps in the upper 30s to lower 40s inland (upper 40s along the coast) as of 530 AM. With the high still overhead, lows cool once again to the low-mid 40s inland and upper 40s to around 50F along the coast. At the surface, high pressure remains over the area early this week with dry weather continuing. Meanwhile, a ridge aloft continues to build across the eastern CONUS.
609 AM EDT Mon Oct 21 2024 High pressure today will exit off the coast Tuesday.
Ridging lingers over the eastern US today, maintaining yet another day of breezy east-northeast flow across east central Florida. High temperatures forecast in the lower to mid-80s. Overnight lows in the lower 70s, though some rural areas will reach the upper 60s.
621 AM CDT Mon Oct 21 2024 - A cold front will bring a 20 to 60 percent chance of light rain across the northern half of the state mainly late tonight through Tuesday morning, along with breezy to windy conditions late tonight through the day Tuesday. The highest rain chances are closer to the Canadian border. This will bring the return of sub- freezing temperatures with most locations forecast to drop into the 20s.
It looks like if you take an average of the two, we will mix up to some of that drier air when temperatures climb into the lower to mid 70s or higher. Otherwise, based on 10 am temperatures and with continued sunny skies and slight warm air advection in some areas, highs should be warmer than yesterday.
621 AM EDT Mon Oct 21 2024 High pressure sinking south will keep broad southwest flow over the region through midweek.
551 AM CDT Mon Oct 21 2024 Dry and warmer conditions will remain the forecast theme over the upcoming week. With low and midlevel ridging persisting across our region, we'll see high temperatures continue to trend upward today and continuing through the work week. By the weekend, a mid/upper trough will push a cold front southward toward the area, but the front will stall as it approaches or moves into the area.