Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
(This afternoon through Tuesday night) Relatively quiet weather persists in the short term with upper level ridging dominating over the Four Corners. In addition to the subsidence supplied by the ridge, water vapor satellite imagery depicts a tongue of dry air is extending on the southern periphery of the ridge into West Texas. Slightly less cloud cover compared to the last few days and a low level thermal ridge that is a touch stronger today allows many spots to see high temperatures a few degrees warmer than yesterday. The ridge does not move much heading into tomorrow, with a nearly carbon-copy day of weather expected. However, the low level thermal ridge builds to be a touch stronger still, leading to another degree or so warmer for tomorrow's high temperatures.
The hefty ridge that was parked over us just this last week has edged closer to the Four Corners today. That has allowed for several minor vort lobes to round the ridge, which has brought some moisture and storms to the region. The aforementioned ridge is progged to retrograde back over the Southwestern States in the coming days, with the ridge axis taking a more positive tilt and locking its sights on the Colorado Basin vs. The location of the ridge axis late week and into the weekend may allow some monsoonal moisture to slide into area, especially with any Gulf Surges that might occur. That moisture increase will once again bring the threat of thunderstorms and lightning to much of the higher elevations.
This, in combination with dew point temperatures in the low-to-mid 70s, sets the stage for hazardous heat this afternoon and a Heat Advisory as a result. /16/ (Monday through Tuesday) Warmer this morning with mostly clear skies. It's 80 downtown Shreveport for the warmest and 73 at Peason Ridge and Alexandria for the coolest, both of which are calm by the way.
1232 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 (Today and tonight) Dangerously hot weather will occur today as the magnitude of the low-level thermal ridge increases across the Southern Plains. For tonight, remnant showers and thunderstorms may approach northern Oklahoma from Kansas in association with a weak boundary/cold front.
Temperatures will be around seasonal normals with the exception of cooler readings in Johnson County. The remainder of the week finds a building ridge across the Great Basin, which retrogrades closer to the West Coast late in the forecast period.
1230 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 - Hot and humid today but record temperatures are unlikely - Another hot day Tuesday in the south but cooling off in the north with an approaching front - Unseasonably cool for the end of the week and into the weekend Ridging continues to build into the region today along with some weak moisture advection. By late this afternoon and into the evening, a slow moving cold front will be encroaching on the region. Primarily pushing the hotter temperatures a little further south to compensate the higher potential for cloud cover hanging around longer than previously expected in the central areas of the CWA.
(Tonight through Tuesday night) The subtropical ridge is dominant over the Gulf this afternoon. High pressure at the surface has the low level from the south to southeast and a warm, moist airmass is in place across the CWA. The upper ridge is suppressing convection this afternoon. Southerly to southeasterly flow will keep the warm, moist air in place and the upper ridge will prevent any convection.
- Isolated mountain showers/thunderstorms (10-30% chance) today along the Sierra Crest south of I-80 Cooler high temperatures are expected around the area today, as onshore flow returns.
Depending on how far south the boundary goes, clouds and potentially rain will lead to slightly cooler temperatures north of the boundary. Ahead of the boundary, another day of triple digit temperatures and higher heat index values are expected, especially in the immediate area ahead of the front where the thermal ridge (pre-frontal torch) is expected to set up. Another thing later shifts will need to take a look at is the potential need for an Excessive Heat Warning, especially in the axis of the pre-frontal torch/thermal ridge where heat index values could climb to around 110 but with the uncertainties of this position will hold off on that for now as well.
Highs will be in the upper 80s to low 90s as easterly winds bring some cooler air to the region.
High pressure is situated over the Four Corners at the moment. As we go into the middle and later part of this week, the high will be wobbling while shifting west. Even some of the lower elevations in Yavapai county look like they could be slipping out of the triple figures. Ensemble guidance eventually brings the high back east to the Four Corners during the middle of the following week. SCT TSRA/SHRA over the higher terrain, 19Z-03Z.
Otherwise mainly dry and cooler conditions today. A cold front associated with the 500 mb short wave near Winnipeg is moving thru the northern RRV with a weakening line of t-storms. 500 mb short wave associated more with the cold front is in SW Manitoba with a cluster of storms with it. High pressure will then move overhead Wed-Thu. 500 mb heights will rise into western Canada mid week with warmer air spreading north and a sharp ridge west and trough east will be located over Canada and the northern tier of the US with our forecast area in between and on the backside of the 500 mb trough to our east Fri-Sun period. Warmer air will move in but warmest airmass remains to our west.
352 PM EDT Mon Jul 15 2024 High pressure will persist offshore, while a weak trough resides inland through mid week. A cold front will approach the region late week and likely stall nearby. Lows will range from the mid 70s well inland to the lower 80s at the beaches and Downtown Charleston. Mid level ridging will weaken through midweek as a broad trough initially north of the area amplifies into the Southeast. At the surface, high pressure will persist over the Atlantic while a trough resides inland.
Discussion: Mesoanalysis is showing some areas of around 2000 J/Kg MLCAPE this afternoon with isolated convection along the higher elevations, mainly across western higher elevations of the Cumberland Plateau and Clinch Mountains. The weak upper level trough/col will shift southeast on Tuesday with weak southwesterly flow across far southeast Tennessee and southwest North Carolina.
The mid/upper level high will meander between the Four Corners and west Texas, which keeps southeast Arizona in a favorable east/southeast moisture transport regime. By this weekend, an amplified ridge builds across the western United States and the mid/upper level high becomes centered to our north over the Great Basin. This is still a favorable position for monsoon activity across southeast Arizona, although as the mid level flow shifts to more of a northeasterly direction, thunderstorms may have a greater potential of moving off the rim into the lower deserts.
(This afternoon through Tuesday) Convective development has begun this afternoon across western portions of the area amidst a relative PWAT maximum of 2 inches and downstream of weak mid-level troughing extending southwest from the Ohio Valley into the Lower MS River Valley. Since moisture has been steadily increasing over the past couple of days, it seems we're in a position to see at least scattered to numerous showers and storms both today and tomorrow during peak heating hours, especially with the weak cyclonic flow associated with the trough. A Heat Advisory remains in effect across southern portions of the area this afternoon, but temperatures are expected to be a few degrees warmer tomorrow. A general lull in activity is expected tonight, but it will be humid with lows in the lower to mid 70s.
400 PM EDT Mon Jul 15 2024 Several weak troughs of low pressure will cross the area through Tuesday.
Aside from this, near normal temperatures continue, with highs in the low 90s to near 100 on Tuesday, and lows in the 70s to low 80s tonight and Tuesday night.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be ongoing during the day Tuesday as a cold front drops slowly southward into the area. Barnes Once the front passes, a much cooler/drier airmass will settle into the Midwest for the middle and end of the week.
1244 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 (Rest of Today) Temps as of 15Z are in the mid 80s to the lower 80s where there is greater cloud cover and a few light showers. With the high PWATS and given instability up to 2k J/kg, a few storms could be strong producing gusty winds.
805 AM PDT Mon Jul 15 2024 Quiet weather with temperatures at or slightly below normal through midweek, with only slightly warmer temperatures for the end of the work week into the weekend. (Today and tonight) Slow moving upper level disturbance offshore of NorCal continues to gradually lift north while eventually getting absorbed by persistent troughing working on the northwest periphery of broad ridge over western CONUS.
Temperatures are forecast to drop into the low to mid-70s by later in the night, with dewpoints in the low-70s - generally a pretty seasonal July night.
Cooler weather will continue through mid-week before a modest warm-up. (This afternoon through Tuesday) The trend for cooler temperatures continues as the upper level trough inches to the north.
That will lead to some thunderstorms over the mountains for the afternoon, with a few drifting off into the deserts (most likely the high desert).
This is due to surface ridging that will linger across the southeast US and the Mississippi River into Texas, maintaining light southerly winds and dew points in the low-to-mid 70s.
If the high resolution models indicate a longer 110+ occurrence, then an Excessive Heat Warning would be warranted. The sfc features that affect the ILM CWA will be Bermuda high pressure ridging to Florida, a trof extending across the Central Carolinas and the daily evolution of the aftn/evening sea breeze and its push inland. The mid and upper level ridging will suppress further southward, leaving westerly flow aloft. However, the sfc trof and sea breeze will provide enough forcing combined with avbl instability for convection to initiate.
The lows for tonight will be in the low to mid 70s along the Brazos Valley and Piney Woods region, and in the mid to upper 70s for the rest of the inland portions. Skies will be sunny to partly cloudy and the highs will rise into the mid to upper 90s over areas north of I-10 but remain in the low to mid 90s for areas south of I-10.
Shower and thunderstorm coverage will increase each day as a cold front approaches and stalls to our northwest. Atlantic high pressure will continue to nose in from the east while a trough lingers inland. Although we can't rule out a few damaging wind gusts our main concern is for locally heavy rainfall flooding given the high PWATs and weak storm motions. Lows tonight should mainly be in the mid to upper 70s inland with highs on Tuesday in the mid to upper 90s away from the slightly cooler coast. As the mid level ridge starts to weaken the short term will see increasingly vort-laded westerly flow.
1121 AM PDT Mon Jul 15 2024 * Last round of thunderstorms today followed by a drier and warmer trend to end the week. As high pressure centered over the Four-Corners region expands a bit westward on Tuesday there will be a return of dry, southwest flow across the Sierra and western Nevada.
Issued by National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 1222 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 (Today through Tuesday) Broad 500 mb high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico will generally be the dominant weather feature across the BRO CWFA during the period.
Northerly upper level flow pattern in place tonight into Tuesday with a secondary boundary dropping through the region tonight, and then and continued push of cooler air into the region Tuesday.
12z sounding from OUN looks quite hot in the lower levels, and all of this data supports the hottest day we've seen thus far.
Shower and thunderstorm chances increase during the mid-week period as a trough sets up over the eastern US and a cold front approaches from the north and west.
900 AM PDT Mon Jul 15 2024 Quiet weather with temperatures at or slightly below normal through midweek, with only slightly warmer temperatures for the end of the work week into the weekend. (Today and tonight) Slow moving upper level disturbance offshore of NorCal continues to gradually lift north while eventually getting absorbed by persistent troughing working on the northwest periphery of broad ridge over western CONUS.
1215 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 (Today through Tuesday) A slow warming trend will take place through early this week as the subtropical ridge centered over the western United States slowly builds southward into the southern Rockies. Near the surface, we will see continued south to southeasterly winds along with a fairly stout low-level thermal ridge. Look for highs to generally stay in the lower to upper 90s today, with a nudge upward into the mid 90s to near 100 degrees on Tuesday.
1212 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 (Today and tonight) Upper level ridging centered near northern New Mexico will remain in control of our weather again today, with mostly clear skies and hot temperatures.
Temps should stay a little cooler than last week with the upper high centered over the southern Rockies.
Thunderstorms will continue over the mountains, and will also drift into the deserts, especially the high desert, mainly east of I-15.
1120 AM MDT Mon Jul 15 2024 -Cooler this week with chances for storms most days -A few stronger storms possible this afternoon and evening Water vapor shows upper high over the Southern Rockies with short wave trof over southern ALTA/Manitoba, which is flattening the ridge over the Northern Plains. At the surface, low is over north-central SD with cold front along a line that extends through KPHP and KIEN early this morning. Highs today will be in the 80s to lower 90s with northerly winds behind the cold front. Additional storms possible on Tuesday afternoon/evening with stronger short wave trof moving through and steep lapse rates in place with northwest flow aloft. Highs will be similar or a degree or two cooler than today, with continued northerly flow.
(This evening through Tuesday) An upper-level ridge was located over the Southern Rockies this morning, with a positively tilted trough stretching from east Texas up to the Great Lakes region. The forecast area remains under the east side of this ridge through the short term period.
This is due to a midlevel ridge of high pressure located over New Mexico. The ridge, which models show to be 595 dam, should remain more or less over New Mexico through tomorrow evening. Although dewpoints will start off in the 60s in the morning, the airmass should mix out to the low to mid 50s by the afternoon so heat indices should remain below advisory criteria.
For the remainder of the week, the western ridge will push eastward over the northern Rockies with warming temperatures.
/NEW/ /This afternoon through Tuesday/ Clear and warm conditions will remain the rule across North Central Texas through Tuesday, as a large ridge persists across Arizona and New Mexico. Subsidence on the east flank of this ridge will ensure an absence of significant cloud cover across the region, and will promote afternoon high temperatures in excess of 100 degrees in most areas.
245 PM EDT Mon Jul 15 2024 (This afternoon through Tuesday) Temperatures were slower to warm this morning due to persistent cloud cover but are now on the rise with current readings in the low to mid 90s. Additionally, increasing clouds and convection will keep temperatures a few degrees cooler on Tuesday.
No major marine concerns through the period as the ridge axis remains centered over central FL.
242 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 - There's a 30 to 60% chance of showers and maybe a few thunderstorms tonight through late Tuesday morning, with the higher chances across the west and south central. Aloft a large upper level low is spinning in northern Manitoba and moving southeast.
205 PM MDT Mon Jul 15 2024 -Near average temperatures, with chances for storms most days -A few stronger to severe storms possible this afternoon and evening Latest analysis shows an upper ridge over the western CONUS and Canadian Rockies. An upper low is located over Hudson Bay with a trough swinging southward across Manitoba/Saskatchewan, leading 50-70kt 300mb westerly flow across the region this afternoon. Additional storms are possible on Tuesday afternoon/evening with a stronger short wave trough crossing the region and steep lapse rates in place with northwesterly flow aloft. Tuesday highs will be similar, or a few degrees cooler, than today.
Overnight lows are forecast to stay warm in the low to mid 70s over most locations and in the upper 70s along the Rio Grande. Low temperatures are forecast to range from the low 70s across the Hill Country to upper 70s along the Rio Grande.
252 PM MDT Mon Jul 15 2024 - Temperatures are expected to remain a few degrees above normal with daily thunderstorm chances through the remainder of the week and into the weekend as moisture is recycled under the area of high pressure over the region. SubTropical High pressure was centered over the S. This high will be slowly nudged back to the West through midweek as another trough digs into the Upper MidWest. Staying under the main circulation of this high will basically bring a run.
Regarding the potential for storms this afternoon, a disturbance in the flow will keep the threat for mainly afternoon and evening thunderstorms along the highway 2 corridor from Havre to Harlem, and over the mountains of Southwest Montana.
The upper level low which has produced much of the forcing for the last few days will continue to slowly move eastwards, but not before one more day of potential showers tomorrow. Northwesterly flow aloft on the southwest side of the upper level low will coincide with just enough lingering moisture to cause a few isolated showers tomorrow afternoon with much of the CAM guidance suggesting isolated shower coverage.
The dominant Atlantic ridging will continue to cause easterly to southeasterly breezes, some clouds mixing in with our sunshine, and toasty temperatures.
1231 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 (Today and tonight) The heat escalates today as an upper high over northern New Mexico flattens and expands over much of our area. Tonight remains quiet and uneventful under the eastern periphery of the upper high.
An upper level ridge will remain in control over Western Washington through the week for continued dry conditions and above normal temperatures.
/Issued 1249 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024/ /This afternoon through Tuesday/ Clear and warm conditions will remain the rule across North Central Texas through Tuesday, as a large ridge persists across Arizona and New Mexico. Subsidence on the east flank of this ridge will ensure an absence of significant cloud cover across the region, and will promote afternoon high temperatures in excess of 100 degrees in most areas. /NEW/ /Tuesday Night Onward/ By Tuesday night, an upper level trough will be digging southward across the Midwest. This pattern shift will shunt the dominating upper ridge to our west and send a cold front south across the Plains.
304 PM MDT Mon Jul 15 2024 - Still hot today, but a few degrees cooler than this weekend.
The best chance to hit higher heat indices will be across areas west of I-65 where the ridge is stronger and storms will hold off long enough to support higher temperatures. Semi-permanent upper troughing across the central into northeastern CONUS will keep a weakness in upper ridging present across the forecast area during the period.
- Turning cooler and less humid for the rest of the week while also trending dry. To the north, a cold front with another piece of upper level energy will be slide cross northern portions of WI. * TUESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND - cooler and less humid, trending dry Another lobe of upper level energy slated to rotate across the upper mississippi river valley Tue afternoon/evening. Upper level blocking pattern then taking shape for the rest of the week as ridge continues to amplify/hold firm across the rockies/west coast while a trough holds over the new england states. Much cooler and less humid air will flow in from Canada and set up shop through the upcoming weekend, and could linger well into the following week. With the showers and storms being isolated along the cold front, took them out of the TAFs.
633 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 - There's a 30 to 60% chance of showers and maybe a few thunderstorms tonight through late Tuesday morning, with the higher chances across the west and south central. Aloft a large upper level low is spinning in northern Manitoba and moving southeast.
Surface analysis depicts a typical July pattern, with a dominant Atlantic ridge extending westward across the Florida peninsula into the Gulf of Mexico, and a weak tropical wave moving inland into Central America. Aloft, the subtropical ridge axis also extends from the Atlantic westward across Florida, with deep easterly flow over the Keys to the south of the ridge. Otherwise, expect a typically warm and muggy night, with overnight lows in the lower 80s and dewpoints holding in the mid to upper 70s. From the synopsis, Atlantic ridging will remain across the Florida Peninsula through the duration of the forecast.
759 PM EDT Mon Jul 15 2024 High pressure will persist offshore, while a weak trough resides inland through mid week. A cold front will approach the region late week and likely stall nearby. Lows will range from the mid 70s well inland to the lower 80s at the beaches and Downtown Charleston. Mid level ridging will weaken through midweek as a broad trough initially north of the area amplifies into the Southeast. At the surface, high pressure will persist over the Atlantic while a trough resides inland.
548 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 (This afternoon through Tuesday night) Relatively quiet weather persists in the short term with upper level ridging dominating over the Four Corners. In addition to the subsidence supplied by the ridge, water vapor satellite imagery depicts a tongue of dry air is extending on the southern periphery of the ridge into West Texas. Slightly less cloud cover compared to the last few days and a low level thermal ridge that is a touch stronger today allows many spots to see high temperatures a few degrees warmer than yesterday. The ridge does not move much heading into tomorrow, with a nearly carbon-copy day of weather expected. However, the low level thermal ridge builds to be a touch stronger still, leading to another degree or so warmer for tomorrow's high temperatures.
541 PM MDT Mon Jul 15 2024 - Still hot today, but a few degrees cooler than this weekend.
Overnight, smoke will once again filter back through the lower valleys, leading to low visibility and poor air quality, particularly across southeast Oregon.
915 PM EDT Mon Jul 15 2024 Shower and thunderstorm chances increase during the mid-week period as a trough sets up over the eastern US and a cold front approaches from the north and west.
Farther south across Okeechobee County and along much of the coast temps are currently in the low to mid 80s, but will see these values drop to the mid to upper 70s as well overnight. As high pressure holds sway, light southerly winds at night turn SE during the day, increasing to 10-15 KT, especially near the coast with the sea breeze.
(This afternoon through Tuesday) Temperatures were slower to warm this morning due to persistent cloud cover but are now on the rise with current readings in the low to mid 90s. Additionally, increasing clouds and convection will keep temperatures a few degrees cooler on Tuesday.
1014 PM EDT Mon Jul 15 2024 High pressure will persist offshore, while a weak trough resides inland through mid week. A cold front will approach the region late week and likely stall nearby. Lows will range from the mid 70s well inland to the lower 80s at the beaches and Downtown Charleston. Mid level ridging will weaken through midweek as a broad trough initially north of the area amplifies into the Southeast. At the surface, high pressure will persist over the Atlantic while a trough resides inland.