Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
For the central mountains, 8 to 18 inches are expected, including 10 to 12 inches for Stanley, Ketchum, and Hailey, with over two feet along the highest peaks. Overnight temperatures will drop below freezing and support snow areawide.
648 AM EST Thu Dec 26 2024 High pressure will persist through Friday.
652 AM EST Thu Dec 26 2024 Currently at the surface, broad high pressure ridging north of Florida is favoring easterly flow today and Friday, with near normal temperatures gradually warming up through the start of the weekend.
330 AM CST Thu Dec 26 2024 - Small chance for a period of freezing drizzle north Red River valley early this morning.
525 AM CST Thu Dec 26 2024 (Today) Mid/high cloud cover continues to spread into the mid TN Valley from the SW, as an upper trough axis rotates eastward thru the mid/southern Plains.
530 AM EST Thu Dec 26 2024 High pressure over the eastern United States will move offshore tonight.
645 AM EST Thu Dec 26 2024 High pressure brings mostly dry conditions today.
516 AM CST Thu Dec 26 2024 - Periods of freezing drizzle and areas of fog expected today through Friday. Patchy to Areas of fog and possibly some freezing drizzle this morning. Tonight into Friday morning, southeasterly onshore winds may bring freezing drizzle along the North Shore and parts of inland northwest Wisconsin. These conditions are expected ahead of a low-pressure system moving through central and eastern Wisconsin Friday afternoon.
643 AM EST Thu Dec 26 2024 High pressure over the eastern United States will move offshore tonight.
611 AM EST Thu Dec 26 2024 High pressure will ridge across the Carolinas from the north while a weak coastal trough develops and moves inland during Friday.
923 AM EST Thu Dec 26 2024 High pressure will persist through Friday.
Upper-level flow to become southwest across the ArkLaTex this morning ahead of an upper-trough across central Texas. Cyclogenesis with the upper-trough to bring height falls that will result in a stacked low setup across northeast Texas by this afternoon. A frontal boundary extending south from the low will push east across the region within an airmass characterized by dewpoint values in the low to mid 60s this afternoon.
1246 PM EST Thu Dec 26 2024 High pressure will persist through Friday.
Then, a strong area of high pressure builds up across the West Coast to kick off the New Year!. The majority of any precip will fall across the northern parts of the state with measurable amounts well less than an inch, mainly confined to some of the higher elevations across the Navajo Nation. a strong area of high pressure is projected to build across the West Coast.
Upper low/trof moving over the Texas Red River Valley at early afternoon will move eastward across Arkansas tonight. The next upstream upper trof will move over the Rockies tonight and over the Plains on Friday.
However, lowering bases and increasing moisture in the low- levels are allowing some precipitation to reach the surface, especially where stronger forcing is focused just along/ahead of the upr wave.
1135 AM CST Thu Dec 26 2024 (Tonight through Friday night) Key Messages: - Slight Risk for Severe Storms in Victoria area this afternoon - Above normal temperatures next few days Surface warm front was located along the barrier islands and expected to lift northward across the forecast area this morning. This boundary is being drawn northward by a mid-level trough that is forecast to propagate across north Texas today. Then there is a small window (18-20z) for convection across the Victoria area as the tail end of the trough swings through. In the wake of the mid-level trough, expect clearing from west to east this afternoon allowing temps to heat up into the lower 80s.
Multilayered cloudiness with patchy breaks yet again was the morning sunrise greet to the Keys with temperatures in the low to mid 70s and dewpoints steady from overnight around 70F. This morning, northeast to east winds were 10 to 15 knots along the Reef, estimated along the lower portion of that range along the Lower Keys Gulfside, and northeast around 10 knots over Florida Bay. High pressure building in to the eastern U.
Ridging along the eastern seaboard is giving us warm air under easterly flow.
Deubelbeiss Water vapor imagery early this morning shows upper ridging centered over the Great Lakes Region with troughing over the western US. Surface ridging extends west through the middle Mississippi Valley with a stationary/warm front draped over central Illinois from roughly north of Macomb to Hoopeston. The lowest visibilities reside west of the Illinois River where observations show 1 to 3 miles as of 3 am, though sub 1 mile observations are within reach of the county warning area.
Surface observations show dew points increasing to around 70F along and south of the I-10 corridor, suggesting that this area now lies in the warm sector as a warm front lifts northward.
- Above average temperatures continue into the weekend, with highs ranging mostly from the mid 20s to low 30s north and east, and the low to mid 40s southwest.
- Warmer temperatures and clearing conditions take place this weekend.
1138 AM EST Thu Dec 26 2024 High pressure brings mostly dry conditions today.
120 PM EST Thu Dec 26 2024 High pressure brings mostly dry conditions today.
- Warmer and well above normal and dry for the Weekend.
The trough seen over Utah and Idaho is formidable and has a band of snow that is seen on satellite over western Colorado. The forcing isn't strong enough to overcome the low level dry air and downslope flow. With that being said, a few sprinkles or flurries could occur to the west of I-25 as bands of precipitation move through the higher terrain.
323 PM EST Thu Dec 26 2024 High pressure east of the region exits to the New England coast by Friday night.
50", with the higher end of that range towards south- central Missouri.
1157 AM CST Thu Dec 26 2024 - Periods of freezing drizzle and areas of fog expected today through Friday. Patchy to Areas of fog and possibly some freezing drizzle this morning. Tonight into Friday morning, southeasterly onshore winds may bring freezing drizzle along the North Shore and parts of inland northwest Wisconsin. These conditions are expected ahead of a low-pressure system moving through central and eastern Wisconsin Friday afternoon.
But there will be a long enough period of clearing for temperatures to drop into the 30s, with the exception of the Tri-State where lows in the lower 40s will be more prevalent. Highs will get into the lower to mid 50s with very little drop in readings Friday night.
1127 AM CST Thu Dec 26 2024 - Another cooler day in the 50s today with lingering clouds and patchy fog clearing from west to east through the day.
A cold front has swept through the area, with drier air moving in. However, winds will quickly shift back to the southeast and bring warmer air into the area, with highs on Friday in the mid 70s to lower 80s, and lows Friday night only dropping into the low to mid 50s.
Temperatures in the eastern Magic Valley and the lower elevations of the southern hills will reach the middle 40s, which will likely melt most of the snow with little accumulation there.
1005 AM EST Thu Dec 26 2024 High pressure over the eastern United States will move offshore tonight.
still more scattered across our northeast zones but the current void areas of convection will fill in overnight as forcing becomes maximized across our region with the aid of a negative tilt upper trough across the Middle Red River Valley. We may be dealing with some patchy dense fog across our western most zones late tonight through mid morning on Friday as our region will be in between storm systems with our next trough digging into the Upper Red River Valley late Friday Night.
1228 PM EST Thu Dec 26 2024 High pressure brings mostly dry conditions today.
A mix of precipitation types (mainly either very light rain or very light freezing rain) is possible. If road surfaces fail to warm above freezing, travel may be impacted.
Clouds are now clearing from west to east in the wake of the mid-level trough, which is allowing temperatures to heat up into the lower 80s today. Temperatures will be even warmer Friday with highs ranging from the upper 70s in the Victoria Crossroads to the mid-80s across Brush Country.
A taper down to chance category pops can be expected thereafter for the remainder of Friday into the start of the weekend, as we retain a wet southwesterly flow aloft as additional troffing energy rotates across the MS Valley.
The moist SE flow continues ahead of an upper level trof to our south. Highs tomorrow should be warmer as the fog erodes, the sky clears, and sfc temperatures rebound to the changing lower atmospheric profile. Warmer highs, light winds, and dry conditions looks to prevail during this period.
930 PM EST Thu Dec 26 2024 High pressure east of the region exits to the New England coast by Friday night.
(Through Tonight) Widespread rains are ongoing across areas along and south of I-40, in response to the upper low sitting atop the western half of North Texas. While the better moisture and moisture transport combination is well south of the forecast area, there is at least a low chance that some of the higher reflectivity echoes in North Texas may be able to sustain themselves into far southeast Oklahoma rather than diminishing upon approach like they've done so far today. The upper low will continue to shift to the east-northeast through tonight, bringing an end to the heaviest rains during the evening.
Gusty SW winds are ongoing across southern Campbell County in WY and the highest peaks in the BH. Warm thermal profiles indicate that precip likely be in the form of liquid most areas where precip does materialize, possibly supporting some freezing rain in isolated areas if temps are able to drop off, which doesn't seem very likely.
50", with the higher end of that range towards south-central Missouri.
850 PM EST Thu Dec 26 2024 Two low pressure systems will track across the Appalachian Mountains during Friday and the upcoming weekend, which should bring chances of rain during this time.
Highs will get into the lower to mid 50s with very little drop in readings Friday night.
655 PM EST Thu Dec 26 2024 Two low pressure systems will track across the Appalachian Mountains during Friday and the upcoming weekend, which should bring chances of rain during this time.
Strongly diffluent flow across the Lower MS Valley is suggestive large scale ascent.
705 PM EST Thu Dec 26 2024 High pressure east of the region exits to the New England coast by Friday night.
This precip is associated with an upper low/trough axis that is taking on more of a negative tilt as it lifts into the Mid South area. As this initial trough continues to lift to the NE and weaken, a larger trough pattern will also take on a negative tilt as it lifts thru the northern/mid Plains into the Midwest states.
Minor adjustments to precip chances associated with the passing trough axis otherwise the forecast is on track.
Near the surface, a weak trough axis is edging east across extreme eastern Colorado. Warmer temperatures are likely today as a westerly downslope flow develops behind the aforementioned trough axis, pushing H85 temperatures well above 5C in central Kansas to up near 10C in extreme southwest Kansas behind an eroding stratus deck.
High resolution models continue to indicate strong winds will remain confined to the southern Sierra ridgetops and conditions are not favorable for strong downslope into the Owens Valley.
The High Resolution Ensemble and National Blend of Models resemble the track of the evening GFS with the swath of heaviest precipitaiton across northern/central Oregon Friday. Forecast leans toward little to no accumulation for Spokane, Couer d'Alene, and Pullman with temperatures 33F or warmer (except Wenatchee) and very weak ascent with the system.
Broad surface ridging is holding across the eastern seaboard today, allowing light east flow to continue and temperatures to warm up into the upper 70s and low 80s.
A persistent ridge of high pressure will hold over the Desert Southwest providing dry conditions and above normal temperatures for most of our forecast area going into the New Year.
Moist southwesterly flow aloft with a weakening disturbance ejecting northeast from the Lower MS Valley thru the Ohio Valley today/tonight. Mild temperatures to reach highs in the lower and middle 50s. Very mild temperatures to continue with highs in the upper 50s to the lower 60s.
615 AM EST Fri Dec 27 2024 High pressure will crest over the area today into Saturday.
Given the high surface moisture, light winds and dry conditions aloft, dense fog will be the result. The fog should burn off by mid morning revealing a mostly sunny and warm day across South Texas with max temps in the low to mid 80s. The next mid-level trough and associated Pacific front will advance across the southern plains on Saturday.
- Slightly warmer in the 60s with southwest to west winds around 15 to 20 mph, with gusts to 25 mph.
If traveling, remember if your wipers are on, your headlights should be too! Previous discussion--> Moist southwesterly flow aloft with a weakening disturbance ejecting northeast from the Lower MS Valley thru the Ohio Valley today/tonight. Mild temperatures to reach highs in the lower and middle 50s. Very mild temperatures to continue with highs in the upper 50s to the lower 60s.
On Saturday, the higher PWAT airmass is expected to linger which could continue the increased (30-40%) chance for showers through the first half of the weekend especially over far southern portions of the Florida peninsula and local waters.
Clearing skies should help with highs reaching the lower to mid 70s this afternoon. but is progged to begin moving back north into SE TX overnight tonight as a warm front. This return of warmer/moist air will be favorable for the return of fog, with dense fog likely a bit more widespread.
Cooler conditions wrap into the region by year's end. As upper trough lifts northeast, westerly flow will will develop drawing low clouds and fog from eastern Kansas eastward. Could see visibilities fall near the weak trough moving through the area; however, widespread dense fog is not as prolific as expected so trimmed back the dense fog advisory some on the south and eastern fringes. With slightly cooler airmass building into the region, have lows in the upper 30s to lower 40s- near seasonal highs for this time of year.
- Fog and patchy freezing drizzle or drizzle may linger from Baudette to Bemidji to Wadena this afternoon into tonight.
715 AM EST Fri Dec 27 2024 Broad surface ridging is holding across the eastern seaboard today, allowing light east flow to continue and temperatures to warm up into the upper 70s and low 80s.
856 AM CST Fri Dec 27 2024 - Slightly warmer today in the 60s with southwest to west winds around 15 to 20 mph, with gusts to 25 mph.
Water vapor imagery early this morning indicates upper troughing beginning to eject out of the Southern Rockies and into the Central Plains. At the surface, low pressure centers sit over both northwest Texas and the Ozark Plateau. The aforementioned nearby upper energy is progged to provide potential impacts over the forecast area today as the associated extratropical cyclone matures and continues to move eastward.
540 AM CST Fri Dec 27 2024 - Slightly warmer in the 60s with southwest to west winds around 15 to 20 mph, with gusts to 25 mph.
430 AM EST Fri Dec 27 2024 High pressure will crest over the area today into Saturday.
Basically, Arizona will be under or just east of a major ridge axis through the period.
A low-pressure system moving into central Wisconsin will bring widespread rainfall after a period of drizzle and dense fog this morning. Cooling surface temperatures near or slightly above freezing and a shrinking layer of above-freezing air aloft may cause light snow to mix with rain tonight into Saturday. 8" in east-central Minnesota, northwest Wisconsin, and the Twin Ports, with the highest amounts near Lake Superior and the North Shore.
- Warmer (upper 40s to mid 50s) and likely dry for the weekend.
- A cold front is expected Saturday morning with little change other than a wind shift and slightly cooler afternoon highs.
Simultaneously, high pressure over the eastern United States sustained easterly to southeasterly winds that replenished moisture in the lowest levels of the atmosphere. Conditions as of the early afternoon were fresh breezes near the reef with stronger gusts near showers, slightly weaker winds over the cooler waters of Florida Bay, and a disorganized mixture of stratiform and convective showers over the Straits of Florida.
948 AM PST Fri Dec 27 2024 A low pressure system moving inland to the north today, will bring gusty westerly winds to the mountains and deserts through this evening, along with increasing clouds and patchy drizzle west of the mountains this afternoon and evening. An upper ridge will build from the southwest over the weekend.
An area of low pressure will lift north through the region tonight, bringing a steady rainfall from south to north. Precipitation will come to end from south to north on Saturday as the low lifts northeast away from Wisconsin. Highs on Saturday will be similar to today; ranging from the upper 30s across the north to the lower 30s across central and east-central Wisconsin.
with lingering wrap around scattered SHRA noted under this upper low. This path puts the warm sector of the SFC cyclone generally south of AR.
- An upper level trough will bring a slight chance of showers and maybe an isolated thunderstorm mid to late morning on Saturday, quickly followed by clearing skies, with low humidity and warm conditions Saturday afternoon. An upper level trough will move from Idaho this afternoon to over our area by mid morning on Saturday. The trough is not very deep and very fast moving, so the opportunity for showers to develop will only be from mid morning to early afternoon.
- Warmer (upper 40s to mid 50s) and dry for the weekend.
215 PM EST Fri Dec 27 2024 * Pockets of light freezing rain possible late tonight into early Saturday over north-central and northeast PA.
1120 AM CST Fri Dec 27 2024 - Slightly warmer today in the 60s with southwest to west winds around 20 to 25 mph, with gusts to 35 mph.
(Rest of today through Saturday) Weak mid-level ridging will settle over Florida today, while weak high pressure remains in place across the East Coast. On Saturday, the higher PWAT airmass is expected to linger which could continue the increased (30-40%) chance for showers through the first half of the weekend especially over far southern portions of the Florida peninsula and local waters.
1234 PM EST Fri Dec 27 2024 High pressure will crest over the area today into Saturday.
249 PM CST Fri Dec 27 2024 - Above normal temperatures continue into the weekend, with highs ranging mostly from the mid 20s to low 30s north and east, and the low to mid 40s southwest and far south central.
Light rain chances persist in a warm advective environment until a parent low pressure system develops/evolves and tracks from the Red River Valley across the MS/TN Valleys this weekend. While we might end up seeing some troffy/instability showers linger later/even into the new week, as some 12Z deterministic modeling suggests, the ensembles/blend have not picked up on that just yet, so we'll let that hold for now.
While these hazards will be possible anywhere across the Keys waters, the highest likelihood is across portions of the Straits of Florida.
- Slight chance for freezing drizzle overnight for areas east of the Red River Valley.
Light rain chances persist in a warm advective environment until a parent low pressure system develops/evolves and tracks from the Red River Valley across the MS/TN Valleys this weekend. While we might end up seeing some troffy/instability showers linger later/even into the new week, as some 12Z deterministic modeling suggests, the ensembles/blend have not picked up on that just yet, so we'll let that hold for now. There will be brief periods where conditions improve as the lower cloud decks scatter for a moment but as the sun sets given the low moisture available its hard to see a significant improvement overnight.
541 PM CST Fri Dec 27 2024 - A cold front is expected Saturday morning with little change other than a wind shift and slightly cooler afternoon highs.
High pressure off the California coast will keep a northwest flow over Arizona through Saturday. High pressure building over the weekend will result in higher heights and much warmer temperatures, about 10 degrees warmer than today.
750 PM EST Fri Dec 27 2024 * Pockets of light freezing rain possible late tonight into early Saturday over north-central and northeast PA.
However, our CWA is still situated in the moist, southerly flow ahead of low pressure lifting northeast from the Mississippi River Valley into the Upper Great Lakes.
816 PM EST Fri Dec 27 2024 * Pockets of light freezing rain possible late tonight into early Saturday over north-central and northeast PA.
The bulk of the precipitation associated with this feature will have already moved out of the ILN CWA as the highest theta-e/PWATs are shunted off to the east.
- Slight chance for freezing drizzle overnight for areas east of the Red River Valley. There remains the very low chance for freezing drizzle in northwest Minnesota, but the probability remains low as the saturation layer is very small. Impacts may arise if temperatures cool off a bit more tonight but that doesn't appear likely as this low level cloud deck is very thick.
pdf A warm front and coastal trough will both slowly lift north this evening.
130 PM PST Fri Dec 27 2024 A low pressure system moving inland to the north today, will bring gusty westerly winds to the mountains and deserts through this evening, along with widespread marine layer low clouds and patchy drizzle west of the mountains for this afternoon and evening. An upper ridge will build from the southwest over the weekend.
A warm front and coastal trough will both slowly lift north this evening.
Freezing drizzle appears to be increasingly unlikely as an impact due to limited column depth of moisture and warm temperatures, so it has been removed as a key message. There remains the very low chance for freezing drizzle in northwest Minnesota, but the probability remains low as the saturation layer is very small. Impacts may arise if temperatures cool off a bit more tonight but that doesn't appear likely as this low level cloud deck is very thick.
903 PM PST Fri Dec 27 2024 An upper ridge will build from the southwest over the weekend.
1002 PM CST Fri Dec 27 2024 The evening sfc analysis indicates a developing warm front that has recently moved inland across the middle and upper TX coast into S LA. This front will also focus the potential for isolated -SHRA development near and to the S over Lower E TX/N LA, especially as low level moisture deepens and large scale forcing begins to increase by daybreak Saturday ahead of the deepening upper trough that will enter the Srn Plains. The approaching trough will also help to enhance the SSWrly LLJ, with convection expected to quickly increase shortly after daybreak especially along/N of the front. However, as the warm/more unstable air begins to spread N later in the morning into the afternoon, the convection should become more sfc based, especially as large scale ascent increases with the approach of the trough.
Over the central ID mountains and NE Oregon mountains, snow levels will remain near 3000-4000 feet tonight before slowly rising to 5000-7000 feet on Saturday as warmer air moves in. Then the warm front will lift northward late Saturday evening, with precipitation becoming widespread again.
1058 PM CST Fri Dec 27 2024 - A cold front is expected Saturday morning with little change other than a wind shift and slightly cooler afternoon highs.