Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Fog graphics will not be introduced at this time given the low probability of fog development highlighted by HREF guidance. Afternoon highs will peak into the low to mid 90s areawide. Rain chances will begin to diminish later this evening as weak surface ridging continues over the southeast CONUS.
A few rounds of rain are expected today as low pressure continues to sit and spin north of the area. The next will move into the area from southern and southwestern KS as a trough axis rotates around the main low.
- A weak cold front brings chances for scattered showers and storms focused north of I-69 this afternoon-evening.
150 AM EDT Thu Sep 18 2025 Although a weak upper level trough remains over the region, the airmass remains relatively dry. Morning lows in the lower 60s still look on track. Today and Tonight: Weak upper trough remains across the region through tonight.
However, wrap around moisture on the backside of the low has contributed to low stratus currently being observed across the eastern half of the CWA. Low stratus will begin to dissipate later this morning as the low continues to slowly move eastward. With the low gradually moving out, warmer temperatures will move into the area.
is defined by mid to upper level ridging over the western Great Lakes Region and two closed mid to upper level lows over the northern Great Plains (one over eastern MT and one over eastern SD). As we transition into the afternoon/evening, additional showers and storms are anticipated to form along and out ahead of a surface cold front that moves through the area later this evening. Taking a quick look at temperatures, highs today are expected to range from the low 70s to upper 80s. However, increased cloud coverage from showers and storms could impede the effects of diurnal heating resulting in high temperatures nearing the lower end of that range. Late Thursday into early Friday, the aforementioned cold front is anticipated to move through the area bringing near-seasonal temperatures.
624 AM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025 - Cloud cover has been slow to develop today allowing temps to hit the low 90s by noon. - High temperatures should hold steady in the low 90s through the forecast period.
636 AM EDT Thu Sep 18 2025 (Today and tonight) Mid-level troughing will continue for the near term period.
733 AM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025 A closed upper low over the East Coast opens, leaving a weakening upper trough centered along the East Coast into the weekend. The forecast area will see an increasing chance of showers and thunderstorms in the coming week with the increase in moisture and the approaching upper trough.
A deeper trough moving in from the Gulf of Alaska this weekend will bring a more pronounced cool-down and an increasing chance for rain, especially along the coast and across southwest Washington.
The highest rain chances are today over south central and southeastern parts of the state. The highest chances tonight and Friday will be along and east of the Highway 83 corridor.
(Tonight through Friday Night) Through the week we have been sitting between a big ridge axis over the Plains and Ms Valley and an upper trough along the east coast. The ridge has given us warm temperatures while the trough has provided a couple of weak disturbances with brief, localized showers and storms. The ridge will be our main wx system the next few days as it gradually moves eastward and sets up overhead.
- Temperatures turn cooler for today with easterly winds returning. A slow moving upper low over the northern High Plains will slowly spin over the Dakotas the next couple days, keeping the Northland in on and off rain chances through the weekend under gloomy skies.
Have trimmed them slightly across parts of the plains, particularly south of the Cheyenne Ridge, where persistent northerly winds are expected to limit precipitation potential. The upper low over southeast Wyoming will be drifting southeast overnight. There's a pocket of cooler air aloft and a bit of QG lift that will come along with it. The surface will likely wind up warmer in the south, and showers that form over the relatively warm Front Range and central mountains will drift that way. Thursday morning drier and warmer air aloft will be moving over, but there will still be some cool moist air at low levels.
630 AM EDT Thu Sep 18 2025 High pressure will extend over the area into the weekend with a warming trend. Dry and warmer weather today. As low pressure continues to pull away to the NE, high pressure will take over. Lows in the lower to mid 60s. Lows generally in the lower to mid 60s are expected.
As has been the trend the past two nights, outflow and a few corridors of convergence shown in the low-level wind field could yield some spotty activity overnight. Above-normal daytime warmth continues, with forecast high temperatures in the lower 90s placing us between 5-10 degrees above normal.
330 AM MDT Thu Sep 18 2025 - Cooler and drier today, with warmer and drier conditions returning to the area on Friday.
Muscha - Slightly cooler temperatures in the 70s to low 80s are expected Thursday due to cloud cover and a cold frontal passage. As we move into Friday the trough axis will start to move east into Oklahoma and we'll begin to get a ridge build over the Panhandles, with mainly westerly flow to start.
645 AM EDT Thu Sep 18 2025 Although a weak upper level trough remains over the region, the airmass remains relatively dry. Weak upper trough remains across the region through tonight. Confidence in development and coverage is still on the lower side, so will keep the afternoon forecast dry at this time.
Water vapor imagery this afternoon shows our very sluggish upper low still spinning over the Dakotas. For the weekend, the upper low will be filling in as it crawls across the upper MS valley.
114 PM EDT Thu Sep 18 2025 Warm and mostly dry weather prevails into the weekend under high pressure. Dry weather is favored through the forecast period amid high pressure anchored overhead. Up aloft, ridging parked over the the Ohio Valley is progged to strengthen on Friday, solidifying the dry forecast and also yielding slightly warmer temperatures. Afternoon highs will skirt around the 90 degree mark for most locations in the lower elevations on Friday afternoon, while our mountain zones plateau in the 70s during peak heating hours. As of 115 PM Thursday The ongoing stretch of dry weather will prevail into the start of the weekend in the midst of the upper level ridge residing overhead.
Through the short-term, these features will gradually propagate eastward, resulting in a slow departure of the high pressure while surface/upper lows drift into the Upper Midwest. Locally, a stable, dry low-level airmass will persist through Friday night as eastern Kentucky remains firmly under the influence of the high- pressure system. Temperatures are forecast to fall into the mid-50s in valleys and the low 60s on ridges overnight while thermometers consistently reach the mid to upper 80s each afternoon.
Composite atmospheric analysis places a lifting upper-level trough in the northern Gulf, and a decaying low- level trough extending southwestward to the Florida Peninsula from a filling area of low pressure off New England. From synopsis, weak upper-level troughiness, coupled with a decaying frontal boundary draped over the Florida Peninsula, will support bouts of above normal rain chances through tonight. As drier air pushes across the Keys and high pressure builds across the Eastern Seaboard, drier conditions, coupled with light to gentle northeast to east breezes, are expected for Friday through the weekend.
Temperatures through the remainder of the week into the weekend remain in the low 90s.
High pressure remain in place on Friday with most of the area dry.
- High temperatures should hold steady in the low 90s through the forecast period.
(This evening through Friday night) An upper level trough centered along to just east of the Appalachian Mountains continues ot lift northeastward. In doing so, it's allowing for at least some weak ridging to build in behind it across the northern Gulf Coast.
However, as the center of the low moves up the coast, it will bring more moisture into our area later this afternoon and evening along with the chances of thunderstorm.
Today through Friday: Quiet, benign weather prevails with warm, dry conditions as the high pressure system gradually moves eastward. However, the thermal trough remains persistent. The approaching upper trough will last tomorrow into Friday, but with both days remaining dry. This weather pattern will keep the high temperatures in the 70s and 80s with a 60-90% probability of reaching in the mid to high 80s.
(Tonight) As high pressure continues to influence the area from the north, dry weather will continue overnight throughout the Tennessee Valley. Low temperatures are forecast to drop into the low to mid 60s under mostly clear skies.
1119 AM MDT Thu Sep 18 2025 - Cooler and drier today, with warmer and drier conditions returning to the area on Friday.
- Weekend starts off with weak high pressure in the wake of our outflow push, but southerly winds will prevail soon again.
150 PM EDT Thu Sep 18 2025 High pressure will extend over the area into the weekend with a warming trend.
(Rest of today through Friday) An upper level ridge is overhead and that will bring quiet conditions for today. Quiet weather remains in place into the overnight with lows in the low to mid 60s. The upper level ridge will start to push east on Friday as a short wave trough lifts into the Great Lakes. (Friday Night through next Thursday) The upper level trough will continue to lift through the Great Lakes over the weekend. Ensembles are struggling with timing and placement of a trough that will dig out of the northern Plains.
Off to the west, a low pressure system is spinning over southern California.
An upper level trough extends from the northern Plains and northern Rocky Mountains southward to the southern Plains. A cold front associated with the upper trough is moving through western Nebraska and western Kansas with high temperatures today ranging from the mid 60s to mid 70s. Upper lift associated with the trough is moving across portions of the area which has contributed to showers and isolated thunderstorms. The upper trough will move a little further east on Friday with some upper lift continuing over the area which will result in more chances (15% to near 35%) of showers and thunderstorms. Low temperatures Friday night will be in the low 50s to low 60s.
212 PM EDT Thu Sep 18 2025 High pressure will maintain warm and mostly-dry weather into the weekend. KEY MESSAGES: - Above-normal temperatures continue - Valley fog is possible tonight --------------------------------------------------------------- High pressure will continue to be the main weather feature across the area. KEY MESSAGES: - Dry weather continues to end the work week - A weak front brings slightly cooler temperatures -------------------------------------------------------------- The set up on Friday will feature high pressure still in control within developing northwest flow across the area. Ensembles continue to show the high center positioned to the north into the Great Lakes shifting southeast into the England area.
211 PM MDT Thu Sep 18 2025 - Warmer on Friday, with some convection returning to the southwest mountains by late afternoon and evening.
High pressure builds in over the weekend as a nearby front brings renewed precipitation chances midweek. Decreasing cloud cover and increasing temperatures are expected compared to yesterday with high temperatures this afternoon ranging from 5 to 15 degrees warmer. A dry cold front approaches the region on Friday before moving through the forecast area Friday night. Under high pressure, temperatures warm to the mid to upper 80s for most with higher elevations staying in the 70s.
(This evening through Friday) Central Alabama remains in a hot and dry overall pattern with dominant surface ridging present across the Deep South stretching northeastward into the Appalachians. Otherwise, most folks will stay rain-free and hot temperatures will continue through the afternoon, topping out in the low to middle 90s. Additional isolated showers and storms will remain in the forecast elsewhere as highs top out in the low to mid 90s once again.
- Cooler temperatures are here to stay for the weekend. A low pressure system sitting and spinning in the Dakotas is leading to both chances for precipitation and strong winds. Winds off the lake will also keep areas along the shore cooler than the rest of the CWA as well, with most struggling to reach 60 through Friday Cool conditions continue east across the rest of the area through the weekend. Additionally, the low is advecting moist air from the south.
An upper level ridge remains over the area today with warm conditions and temperatures around 5-10 degrees above normal. A low pressure system over southern CA will slowly move northward into the Great Basin later today.
The highest rain chances are over south central and southeastern parts of the state this evening. Then Friday the highest chances will be along and east of the James River Valley.
Through the short-term, these features will gradually propagate eastward, resulting in a slow departure of the high pressure while surface/upper lows drift into the Upper Midwest. Locally, a stable, dry low-level airmass will persist through Friday night as eastern Kentucky remains firmly under the influence of the high- pressure system. Temperatures are forecast to fall into the mid-50s in valleys and the low 60s on ridges overnight while thermometers consistently reach the mid to upper 80s each afternoon. Little change in the extended, with ridging building above the eastern CONUS ahead of a developing trough in the central Plains.
1222 PM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025 A closed upper low over the East Coast opens, leaving a weakening upper trough centered along the East Coast into the weekend. The forecast area will see an increasing chance of showers and thunderstorms in the coming week with the increase in moisture and the approaching upper trough.
Satellite image shows a weak upper trough lurking offshore and at the same time moisture is moving in the southern part of the forecast area in advance of a weak upper low in combination with some tropical moisture from the remnants of Tropical Storm Mario. Some of the high res guidance hints at some potential overnight showers and perhaps an isolated thunderstorm or two west of the Cascades from Josephine County north to northeast to eastern Douglas County, but the evidence is not sufficient enough to have anything in there at the moment.
From synopsis, weak upper-level troughiness, coupled with a decaying frontal boundary draped over the Florida Peninsula, will support bouts of above normal rain chances through tonight. As drier air pushes across the Keys and high pressure builds across the Eastern Seaboard, drier conditions, coupled with light to gentle northeast to east breezes, are expected for Friday through the weekend. Composite atmospheric analysis places a lifting upper-level trough in the northern Gulf, and a decaying low- level trough extending southwestward to the Florida Peninsula from a filling area of low pressure off New England. A stalled boundary in the vicinity of the Keys, combined with Atlantic high pressure to the north will maintain a moist flow.
Tonight, expecting similar conditions with mostly cloudy skies though there may be an uptick in spotty shower activity in the far western UP as one of the aforementioned embedded waves rotates around the parent upper low and lifts into western WI by Friday morning.
High pressure remains in control across the region today which will keep skies mainly clear, with light winds and no precipitation chances. H5 heights will be on the rise the next few days as the ridge strengthens and as such, temps will climb accordingly. Overnight lows tonight into Friday AM will trend above seasonal norms with mid 40s to lower 50s likely in the Snake Plain with 30s and 40s across the high country.
609 PM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025 (This evening through Friday night) An upper level trough centered along to just east of the Appalachian Mountains continues ot lift northeastward. In doing so, it's allowing for at least some weak ridging to build in behind it across the northern Gulf Coast.
714 PM EDT Thu Sep 18 2025 Strong Canadian high pressure will then build southeast Friday across the region behind the cold front.
742 PM EDT Thu Sep 18 2025 Strong Canadian high pressure will build southeast Friday across the region behind the cold front.
547 PM EDT Thu Sep 18 2025 High pressure will maintain warm and mostly-dry weather into the weekend. KEY MESSAGES: - Dry weather continues - Valley fog is possible tonight --------------------------------------------------------------- High pressure will continue to maintain dry weather tonight. Some limited increase in cloud cover is possible toward daybreak ahead of an approaching, weakening cold front. KEY MESSAGES: - Dry weather continues to end the work week - A weak front brings slightly cooler temperatures -------------------------------------------------------------- The set up on Friday will feature high pressure still in control within developing northwest flow across the area. Ensembles continue to show the high center positioned to the north into the Great Lakes shifting southeast into the England area.
730 PM EDT Thu Sep 18 2025 High pressure will extend over the area into the weekend with a warming trend.
616 PM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025 - High temperatures should hold steady in the low 90s through the forecast period.
The highest rain chances are over southern and eastern parts of the state tonight. Then Friday the highest chances will be along and east of the James River Valley.
643 PM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025 (Tonight) As high pressure continues to influence the area from the north, dry weather will continue overnight throughout the Tennessee Valley. Low temperatures are forecast to drop into the low to mid 60s under mostly clear skies.
The Keys remain in a rather wet pattern this evening due to upper troughing over the Gulf and precipitable water remaining quite high at around 2. Deep layered moisture is expected to remain about the same through the overnight period, as is the trough aloft. However, the lower broad lower trough over the Bahamas is expected to sharpen some allowing the outer fringes of a modest high centered near the Central Gulf Coast to become more dominant across the area. Disorganized high pressure over the southeast and Gulf, in concert with broad troughing over the Bahamas, will result in broadly gentle northeasterly breezes on Keys waters overnight.
909 PM EDT Thu Sep 18 2025 High pressure will maintain warm and mostly-dry weather into the weekend. KEY MESSAGES: - Dry weather continues - Valley fog is possible tonight --------------------------------------------------------------- High pressure will continue to maintain dry weather tonight. Some limited increase in cloud cover is possible toward daybreak ahead of an approaching, weakening cold front. KEY MESSAGES: - Dry weather continues to end the work week - A weak front brings slightly cooler temperatures -------------------------------------------------------------- The set up on Friday will feature high pressure still in control within developing northwest flow across the area. Ensembles continue to show the high center positioned to the north into the Great Lakes shifting southeast into the England area.
543 PM MDT Thu Sep 18 2025 - Warmer on Friday, with some convection returning to the southwest mountains by late afternoon and evening.
612 PM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025 (This evening through Friday) Central Alabama remains in a hot and dry overall pattern with dominant surface ridging present across the Deep South stretching northeastward into the Appalachians. Otherwise, most folks will stay rain-free and hot temperatures will continue through the afternoon, topping out in the low to middle 90s. Additional isolated showers and storms will remain in the forecast elsewhere as highs top out in the low to mid 90s once again.
High pressure builds in over the weekend as a nearby front brings renewed precipitation chances midweek. A dry cold front approaches the region Friday before moving through the forecast area Friday night. Under high pressure, temperatures warm to the mid to upper 80s for most with higher elevations staying in the 70s.
With subsidence under this high, no weather of consequence was occurring at the moment. A weak upper troughing pattern should remain in place along the eastern half of the North American domain into the weekend. An otherwise mostly clear to partly cloudy night is expected for the overnight, with low temperatures falling into the low/mid 60s with light winds.
847 PM MDT Thu Sep 18 2025 No significant weather across the forecast area as an upper level ridge is in control. This evenings sounding shows very dry air in the low and mid levels of the atmosphere with high level moisture near 300mb showing as cirrus clouds spreading over the area.
An upper level trough extends from the northern Plains and northern Rocky Mountains southward to the southern Plains. A cold front associated with the upper trough is moving through western Nebraska and western Kansas with high temperatures today ranging from the mid 60s to mid 70s. Upper lift associated with the trough is moving across portions of the area which has contributed to showers and isolated thunderstorms. The upper trough will move a little further east on Friday with some upper lift continuing over the area which will result in more chances (15% to near 35%) of showers and thunderstorms. Low temperatures Friday night will be in the low 50s to low 60s. Light winds will be across south central and central Nebraska and north central Kansas on Saturday with the upper trough still overhead.
Tonight, expecting similar conditions with mostly cloudy skies though there may be an uptick in spotty shower activity in the far western UP as one of the aforementioned embedded waves rotates around the parent upper low and lifts into western WI by Friday morning. Saturday, ridging over the eastern CONUS begins to break down and move off of the east coast, allowing the churning closed low over the Plains to open up and head into the Great Lakes, sending in waves of precipitation across the UP.
Upper low is in northwest SD with a 500 mb vort in western Missouri. Isolated thunderstorms possible as well, but with main upper low forecast to drop more southeast thru today and tonight feel conditions less favorable for any funnels. 500 mb low and trough remains over Minnesota and eastern ND Saturday but mositure feed is much less into the system.
High temperatures look to remain in the 90s through the period, with overnight lows largely remaining in the low to mid 70s.
After widespread showers tonight, the highest chances for rain will shift east of Highway 83 on Friday.
(Today) Under mostly clear skies, temperatures have been able to fall into the low to mid 60s with a few locations in the valley dipping into the 50s. In terms of temperatures, today will unfortunately be plagued with the same above normal highs in the high 80s to mid 90s.
1229 AM EDT Fri Sep 19 2025 Warm and mostly dry weather prevails into the weekend under high pressure. A high pressure system will continue to provide dry weather today and tonight. With some low level dry air in the soundings, particuarly along the I-64 corridor, lowered afternoon dewpoints to the lower end of guidance.