Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
631 PM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025 - Scattered showers and thunderstorms will spread eastward into central IL this afternoon and evening and continue into Sunday (40-70% chance) as a cold front slowly moves into the area. More seasonably hot and humid conditions can otherwise be expected the next several days as a cold front brings slightly cooler conditions. Bumgardner A cold front currently draped from northern WI southwestward through IA and KS will be the focus for weather development over the upcoming couple of days.
645 PM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025 Updated at 645 PM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025 - Warm and humid weather continues each day, with high temperatures in the low to mid 90s and heat index values in the upper 90s to low 100s.
209 PM PDT Sat Jul 5 2025 Updated at 205 PM PDT Sat Jul 5 2025 * Warming Trend starts today as high pressure returns.
652 PM EDT Sat Jul 5 2025 High pressure extending across the region will slowly shift east on Sunday, with a chance of a late day thunderstorms ahead of an approaching cold front.
The large upper low continues to spin over the region while TS Chantal moves towards the Carolina coast through tonight into Sunday as a weak low level boundary washes out over the Peninsula keeping the warm, moist and unstable airmass over the state. For the upcoming week, latest guidance brings weak ridging aloft over the region while weak surface W Atlantic high pressure axis stretches across the FL Peninsula with fairly typical summertime conditions for the area. Weak high pressure will build into the region through the up coming week keeping winds light and seas slight.
932 PM MDT Sat Jul 5 2025 - Cooler temperatures through Sunday.
Ongoing convection is being fueled by moisture convergence driven by a weak low level jet ahead of a cold front which is moving into Missouri this morning. The front will continue to sag southeast today, driven by a short wave trough moving moving through the Midwest. However, there is consensus in increasing coverage this afternoon along and ahead of the cold front across central and southeast Missouri into southwest and south central Illinois.
(Tonight through Monday night) The weather pattern over the past few days continues into the short term period, featuring a slight pressure gradient between a slowly dissipating low pressure system over central Texas and a high pressure over the Gulf, resulting in southeasterly winds, breezy at times, with gusts up to 25-30 mph on Sunday and 20-25 mph on Monday expected. There remains a low to medium (20-30%) chance of showers and/or thunderstorms along the afternoon seabreeze boundaries on Sunday and Monday, with a slight increase in coverage on Monday as a weak mid-level low pressure over the western Gulf decreases subsidence aloft and southeasterly surface winds advect higher moisture content northwestward into the CWA from a weak disturbance to the southeast. The highest chances remain along and east of US- 281.
- Another hot and humid day today with high temperatures in the low 90s and max heat indices near 100 degrees. Temperatures will be hot with highs in the lower 90s.
Under generally sunny to party cloudy skies, high temperatures Sunday afternoon should rise into the low/mid 90s.
Typical midsummer weather for most of the upcoming week as a weak cold front drops into Indiana, only to get hung up and linger nearby for several days.
The associated surface cyclone trekking across Hudson Bay will work into Quebec as the attendant cold front draped far to its southwest into the central Great Plains swings across the region tonight and Sunday. The next round of more widespread showers and storms will arrive late this evening from the northwest ahead of the aforementioned cold front. Otherwise, cooler temperatures will be in place Sunday with the rain and frontal passage. Highs will range from the low to mid 70s across northwest lower and eastern upper to the low to mid 80s for those near Saginaw Bay. Pattern Synopsis: Largely zonal flow looks to be overhead for the start of the work week as a cold front gradually works southeast of the CWA Sunday night into Monday.
More cloud cover around should limit radiational cooling keeping temperatures warmer overnight in the mid to upper 60s. * Heat Advisory in effect Sunday: A mid-level ridge stays positioned over southern New England Sunday with increased SW flow aloft.
- Storms may increase from the north during the middle of the week as a trough swings southward. Temperatures will quickly climb from the low to mid 70s this morning to the low to middle 90s by late afternoon. For much of the week ahead, upper level flow will continue attempting to enclose a large area of high pressure over northern Mexico and the Desert Southwest, lose organizational structure, then organize again. The positioning of these upper level features from day to day will be very consequential to our forecast, as the eastward extent of the high pressure's influence will either inhibit or allow for afternoon diurnally-driven convection, depending on its reach, and possibly permit the influence of an upper level feature from the north by mid week.
346 AM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025 - Cooler/below seasonal temperatures today, along with chances (30 to 50%) for showers and a few thunderstorms. - Temperatures trend warmer along with near daily chances for showers and storms through the middle of this week.
Upper-level troughing will continue to push down into the area come Monday, bringing an increase in rain chances across all of Middle TN, around 30-50%.
organized forcing for storms will remain focused across the high plains where an MCS should develop and move south.
pdf SW steering flow develops today between Chantal lifting NNE of the region and a mean layer 1000-500 mb ridge axis lifting northward across the FL Straights. The highest rain chances of > 60% today will focus across our NE FL zones where a 850 mb wake trough axis from Chantal lingers into the afternoon under SW steering flow. Temperatures begin a warming trend today with highs nearing the low to mid 90s across SE GA and the FL Interstate 10 corridor. The 'cooler' location today will be the Suwannee River Valley where morning cloud cover from Gulf convection will keep highs near 90 to upper 80s. Despite the warmer temperatures today north of I-10, drier air will mix down dew pts in the upper 60s creating peak heat index values of 95-100 deg.
Early this afternoon, water vapor satellite image showed a low amplitude upper trough across the central MO River Valley into eastern KS. A broad upper ridge extended from the southwestern US eastward across the mid MS River Valley, east into the mid Atlantic states. A more amplified upper trough was located southwest Canada, with an upper trough axis extending southwest across ID into northwest CA. Today through Tonight: There may be a few isolated showers this afternoon but subsidence behind the departing H5 trough should limit deep moist convection during the afternoon hours. Early this evening most CAMs forecast isolated to scattered thunderstorms developing along the pre-frontal trough axis along the I-70 corridor.
An upper ridge of high pressure will settle over the region bring hot and dry temperatures across the region. Dry and warming conditions will continue through Monday ahead of a dry cold front. As we move into Sunday and Monday, models show high temperatures to become more widespread with 80-100% of the raw ensembles showing only the ridges of the mountains remaining below 80 degrees.
We could see a bump in our winds mid-week as a closed low off the coast begins to push inland.
The area otherwise was between an upper low over the NE Gulf of America, and a weakening upper ridge over the Mid South to western Ohio Valley. At the NE end of the upper low was Tropical Storm Chantal located about 80 miles ESE of Charleston SC. Under generally sunny to party cloudy skies, high temperatures Sunday afternoon should rise into the low/mid 90s.
1244 AM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025 - Scattered showers and weak storms move through this evening along a passing cold front. All this is to say, funnel clouds and landspouts are near-surface features which rarely cause damage and based on where the environment is favorable will be too low to see by the MPX radar which is looking roughly 4000 to 5000ft too high to see the feature which is confined to the lowest 1000ft of the atmosphere. Global ensembles show potential for each day this upcoming week for afternoon activity as temperatures remain near normal in the low to mid 80s and humidity remains locked in without a significant change in airmass.
1029 PM PDT Sat Jul 5 2025 * Temperatures will continue to warm through the first half of the week as a ridge of high pressure pushes into the region. High-pressure ridging will continue to push into the area from the southeast through the weekend and into the first part of the week.
A cold front will approach the state from the north on Sunday afternoon.
1229 AM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025 (Tonight through Monday night) The weather pattern over the past few days continues into the short term period, featuring a slight pressure gradient between a slowly dissipating low pressure system over central Texas and a high pressure over the Gulf, resulting in southeasterly winds, breezy at times, with gusts up to 25-30 mph on Sunday and 20-25 mph on Monday expected. There remains a low to medium (20-30%) chance of showers and/or thunderstorms along the afternoon seabreeze boundaries on Sunday and Monday, with a slight increase in coverage on Monday as a weak mid-level low pressure over the western Gulf decreases subsidence aloft and southeasterly surface winds advect higher moisture content northwestward into the CWA from a weak disturbance to the southeast. The highest chances remain along and east of US- 281.
1223 AM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025 - Scattered showers and thunderstorms will spread eastward into central IL this afternoon and evening and continue into Sunday (40-70% chance) as a cold front slowly moves into the area. More seasonably hot and humid conditions can otherwise be expected the next several days as a cold front brings slightly cooler conditions. Bumgardner A cold front currently draped from northern WI southwestward through IA and KS will be the focus for weather development over the upcoming couple of days. By midday, as a cold front settles into the area, additional convection will begin to fire near KSPI, with the threat expanding to KCMI through the afternoon.
Building high pressure will bring dry conditions and increasingly hot temperatures through midweek.
The southern extent of the 500mb trough will continue to influence the local area today as it gradually drifts toward the east.
1111 PM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025 Updated at 1111 PM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025 - Warm and humid weather continues each day, with high temperatures in the low to mid 90s and heat index values in the upper 90s to low 100s.
As this ridge continues to build eastward, a build up of southerly flow from the Gulf will continue to advect boundary layer moisture across portions of east and southeast MS which could allow for a few isolated/scattered showers and t-storms to occur. In addition to the low rain chances today, afternoon highs are expected to reach the mid 90s areawide. Given the highs in the mid 90s and dewpoints in the upper 60s/low 70s, heat index readings will struggle to reach 105 degrees. Expect overnight lows to dip into the low 70s areawide.
Pattern remains similar through Sunday with weak troughing remaining across the local region coincident with a plume of deeper moisture.
Strongest wave within the trough is remnant MCV that is shifting over western Upper Michigan with tail end of the MCV helping to kick off convection over northwest into central and north-central WI.
As Tropical Storm Chantal's circulation exits further way into eastern North Carolina today, we will lose the low-level northeast flow that has reinforced the drier air in recent days. The two most favorable areas for storms will be the seabreeze rendezvous spot inland of Apalachicola, and the Lower Suwannee/ northern Nature Coast region where the richest moisture resides.
Upper ridging will continue to slowly weaken overhead today. A sfc cold front currently stretching from Upper MI to KS will sink southeast from Lower MI to central MO by 00Z this evening. Temperatures will again warm into the low 90s area-wide this afternoon, with a few spots pushing into the mid 90s. Skies will range from partly cloudy to mostly clear overnight, with lows in the low to mid 70s.
Instability increases during the afternoon with surface heating and arrival of a 500 mb trough, reaching about 1500 J/kg to the east of the Holland-GR-Mt Pleasant line. The storms will produce very efficient downpours given the high-PW atmosphere today. The fallout of hail cores and the cooler downdrafts they produce raises the possibility of wet microbursts and locally gusty winds.
Then, a slow moving cold front will result in isolated to scattered thunderstorms mainly north and west of the Capital District tomorrow with some storms potentially turning strong to severe.
A weakening ridge continues to influence the area, though it is gradually eroding as a weak trough approaches and an area of low pressure, associated with Tropical Storm Chantal, lingers off the Carolina coast. While subsidence from the ridge is still sufficient to suppress widespread convection, isolated to low end scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible later this afternoon, primarily diurnally driven and tapering during the evening hours.
250 AM EDT Sun Jul 6 2025 Low pressure aloft continues to spin over the region while Tropical Storm Chantal moves toward the Carolina coast. Then for the rest of the week, we get back to a more typical summertime storm pattern as the Atlantic ridge builds back in.
A weak cold front will move into northern Indiana this afternoon and provide the impetus for storm development. For this upcoming week, the subtropical ridge over the southwest CONUS will stay relatively subdued as an abundance of energy races over the top of the ridge into the Midwest and Upper Midwest. As for temperatures, a weak cold front will do little to bring relief to the hot conditions except for being a few degrees cooler Monday. VFR conditions expected at least through around 16z Sun when chances for thunderstorms increase along and ahead of a cold frontal passage which will bring MVFR cigs and MVFR/IFR vsbys in thunderstorm rains which may become moderate to heavy at times.
- Highs remain in the upper 80s to mid-90s today (upper 70s to 80s for the mountains), and just a few degrees warmer tomorrow. Discussion: With weak ridging aloft for the eastern half of CONUS, the catalyst for sensible weather to round off the weekend will be Tropical Storm Chantal. Instability will be on the lower side (by summer standards), so not expecting much in the way of severe storm activity.
207 AM EDT Sun Jul 6 2025 High pressure will be off to the east of the area today. A weak cold front will move across the area Monday into Monday evening. Mid level ridging across the area will get suppressed eastward as a short wave approaches from the northwest. Associated cold front will move across much of the area during the day, with the tail end laying out across southern counties. Lows tonight will only be in the lower 70s, but high on Monday will be a bit lower than today except for in south central Ohio and northeast Kentucky.
We'll see temperatures warm into the low to mid 90s over the northwest half of Oklahoma where more clearing is expected, while south central Oklahoma and north Texas are more limited to the 80s. A ridge is establishing itself over New Mexico putting us into northwest flow. Then, overnight there is some potential for a storm complex off the high plains to surge toward northwest Oklahoma.
Updated at 211 AM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025 - Warm and humid conditions will continue each day, with high temperatures in the low to mid 90s and heat index values in the upper 90s to low 100s.
Instability increases during the afternoon with surface heating and arrival of a 500 mb trough, reaching about 1500 J/kg to the east of the Holland-GR-Mt Pleasant line. The storms will produce very efficient downpours given the high-PW atmosphere today.
- Warmer and drier mid to late week. Today, low to medium (10-40%) rain chances return for a lot of locations across the region due to an inverted trough approaching from the east. With these higher than normal dew points, high temperatures are going to be cooler than yesterday reaching the mid 80s to lower 90s for most. Monday, more low to medium (15-40%) isolated rain chances and near to slightly below temperatures continue as weak inverted troughing persists. Greatest chances for rain/storms looks to stay in the higher terrain and eastern Permian Basin.
612 AM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025 Updated at 606 AM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025 - Warm and humid conditions will continue each day, with high temperatures in the low to mid 90s and heat index values in the upper 90s to low 100s.
623 AM EDT Sun Jul 6 2025 High pressure will be off to the east of the area today. A weak cold front will move across the area Monday into Monday evening. Mid level ridging across the area will get suppressed eastward as a short wave approaches from the northwest. Associated cold front will move across much of the area during the day, with the tail end laying out across southern counties. Lows tonight will only be in the lower 70s, but high on Monday will be a bit lower than today except for in south central Ohio and northeast Kentucky.
A trailing area of storms which has redeveloped over the High Plains of western SD are likewise projected to move east through the early-mid morning.
KBYX continues to detect popcorn convection along these boundaries with a few isolated thunderstorms developing in the Gulf north of the Lower Keys. This will allow the usual low level ridging will return to the Keys later this evening and overnight. From synopsis, weak ridging will gradually build across the area today, causing light to gentle breezes to back from south to southeast, and eventually assuming an easterly direction by tonight.
956 AM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025 Updated at 606 AM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025 - Warm and humid conditions will continue each day, with high temperatures in the low to mid 90s and heat index values in the upper 90s to low 100s.
Low pressure aloft continues to spin over the region while Tropical Storm Chantal moves toward the Carolina coast. Then for the rest of the week, we get back to a more typical summertime storm pattern as the Atlantic ridge builds back in.
The main theme this week will be an expanding strong ridge of high pressure aloft over the state resulting in very hot, near record high temperatures mid-week and a low grade monsoon pattern.
434 AM PDT Sun Jul 6 2025 * Our warming trend will continue through the first half of the week as high pressure builds into the region. Ridging will continue to push into the area from the southeast, allowing for dry conditions and our warming trend to continue through the middle of the week.
852 AM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025 - Cooler/below seasonal temperatures today, along with chances (30 to 50 percent) for showers and a few thunderstorms. - Temperatures trend warmer along with near daily chances for showers and storms through the middle of this week.
230 AM PDT Sun Jul 6 2025 Updated at 230 AM PDT Sun Jul 6 2025 * Warming Trend starts today as high pressure returns.
213 AM PDT Sun Jul 6 2025 * Our warming trend will continue through the first half of the week as high pressure builds into the region. Ridging will continue to push into the area from the southeast, allowing for dry conditions and our warming trend to continue through the middle of the week.
A warming trend will start the week as an upper ridge strengthens over western Washington. The ridge will weaken and onshore flow will increase for a brief cooling trend midweek before warmer conditions return as upper ridging rebuilds.
613 AM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025 (Tonight through Monday night) The weather pattern over the past few days continues into the short term period, featuring a slight pressure gradient between a slowly dissipating low pressure system over central Texas and a high pressure over the Gulf, resulting in southeasterly winds, breezy at times, with gusts up to 25-30 mph on Sunday and 20-25 mph on Monday expected. There remains a low to medium (20-30%) chance of showers and/or thunderstorms along the afternoon seabreeze boundaries on Sunday and Monday, with a slight increase in coverage on Monday as a weak mid-level low pressure over the western Gulf decreases subsidence aloft and southeasterly surface winds advect higher moisture content northwestward into the CWA from a weak disturbance to the southeast. The highest chances remain along and east of US- 281.
633 AM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025 - Cooler/below seasonal temperatures today, along with chances (30 to 50%) for showers and a few thunderstorms. - Temperatures trend warmer along with near daily chances for showers and storms through the middle of this week.
This boundary will serve as a potential focus for convection late this afternoon along the northern periphery of a dominant high pressure ridge centered near El Paso. Additioanal activity, more widely scattered in nature, is expected within the remnant moisture plume across western AR where modest MLCAPE (~1000 J/kg) and steeper lapse rates will reside on the southern periphery of a mid-level trough. Pattern remains similar through Sunday with weak troughing remaining across the local region coincident with a plume of deeper moisture.
Today, ridging will gradually build in as Tropical Storm Chantal continues to lift to the north and northwest. Over the start of the new work week, weather conditions will remain hot, but benign, as the ridge axis extends across Florida and into the Gulf.
130 PM PDT Sun Jul 6 2025 Updated at 124 PM PDT Sun Jul 6 2025 * Warming Trend underway as high pressure builds across Nevada.
In addition to the threat for storms this afternoon, heat will also be a continued concern with high temperatures reaching the low to mid 90s and heat indices in the upper 90s to potentially 100 degrees in some areas.
348 PM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025 - Chances for showers and thunderstorms will increase to 50-80 percent on Monday and Monday night as the next upper level disturbance and cold front sweep through the region.
- Generally quieter and cooler weather to start the work week. At the surface, the cold front currently draped across the far SE corner of the CWA will continue to work into the southern half of the state overnight.
1253 PM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025 Updated at 1247 PM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025 - Warm and humid conditions will continue each day, with high temperatures in the low to mid 90s and heat index values in the upper 90s to low 100s.
KBYX continues to detect popcorn convection along these boundaries with a few isolated thunderstorms developing in the Gulf north of the Lower Keys. This will allow the usual low level ridging will return to the Keys later this evening and overnight. Today, ridging will gradually build in as Tropical Storm Chantal continues to lift to the north and northwest. Over the start of the new work week, weather conditions will remain hot, but benign, as the ridge axis extends across Florida and into the Gulf.
Weak high pressure will then rebuild across the area and prevail through the upcoming week. Lows will range from the lower 70s well inland to around 80 at the beaches. Remnants of Chantal will continue to pull northward away from the region Monday, with the surface pattern to then feature high pressure offshore with a trough of low pressure inland.
Weak high pressure will then rebuild across the area and prevail through the upcoming week. Temperatures across extreme SE GA are on pace to peak between in the low to mid 90s. Low temperatures are forecast to range from the low 70s inland to the mid to upper 70s along the coast.
1234 PM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025 - Cooler/below seasonal temperatures today, along with chances (20 to 40 percent) for showers and a few thunderstorms. - Temperatures trend warmer along with near daily chances for showers and storms through the middle of this week.