Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A positively tilted upper level ridge will be advected to the East as a deepening trough drives through the upper Midwest and into the Great Lakes. As that trough pushes east, it will bring scattered showers this evening and overnight into Sunday morning. This will bring a ribbon of moisture that will stretch across Michigan bringing periods of showers, along with cooler temperatures through midweek. Models begin to diverge mid week on passage of the low.
More energy from the upper level trof should reach northern Indiana and be accompanied by unidirectional flow at 20 to 30 knots with CAPE values < 800 J/Kg. A negatively tilted upper level trof had developed over the forecast area as energy from the Pacific had topped the upstream ridge.
(Rest of Today into Tonight) Cumulus field has developed over the last couple of hours east if I-65 over the higher elevations of northeast Alabama and southern middle Tennessee as shown by current satellite imagery.
750 PM EDT Sat Sep 20 2025 A weak backdoor cold front moving south through the region will settle south of North Carolina tonight.
706 PM EDT Sat Sep 20 2025 High pressure will continue to allow for clear skies and chilly temperatures tonight, with frost across northern areas. This high pressure area will slowly settle southeast for later today and into tonight, moving across the North Country and across northern New England for Sunday. With the high pressure nearby and clear skies in place, temperatures will fall easily this evening and it will be a rather chilly night for tonight. On Sunday, dry, sunny and pleasant weather will continue with high pressure still nearby. Temperatures will be a little milder than Saturday, with valley areas back into the lower to middle 70s. A few more clouds are possible by Sunday night, but it will still be mainly clear with a light southerly breeze, as the high pressure departs off to the east.
High pressure builds into the region with above average temperatures expected again on Sunday. Temperatures at daybreak should range from the lower to mid 60s.
More widespread shower and thunderstorm development still appears likely in the afternoon as a cold front arrives, especially across western and central Idaho.
Most of the day's convection has dissipated but similar to this time last evening, isolated showers were across portions of the Highway 84 corridor.
857 PM MDT Sat Sep 20 2025 - Warmer and drier for Sunday, with just minimal shower and storm activity expected over the higher terrain.
Mostly clear conditions starting the period, with low/mid level clouds pulling through the area in the second half of the period, due to the passage of a cold front. A closed low centered off the coast of central California is advecting remnants of tropical moisture northward into the Blue Mountains region, leading to PWATs of 150-200% of normal. The cold frontal passage early Sunday morning through Sunday afternoon will usher in likely (75-90% chance) wetting rain (0.
452 PM MDT Sat Sep 20 2025 KEY MESSAGES: 1) Above average temperatures and dry conditions remain though the weekend before a cold front moves in by Sunday evening. WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: An upper level ridge will continue to build over the region through this afternoon through Sunday bringing above average temperatures.
725 PM EDT Sat Sep 20 2025 High pressure in place today and Sunday will keep weather conditions quiet and dry the rest of the weekend.
728 PM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025 - Dry conditions will prevail for the first half of the weekend, accompanied by another round of warmer temperatures. At the same time, the upper-level pattern above the region shifts to a northwestern flow regime due to the dominant area of low pressure in the Northern Plains.
640 PM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025 (Rest of Today into Tonight) Cumulus field has developed over the last couple of hours east if I-65 over the higher elevations of northeast Alabama and southern middle Tennessee as shown by current satellite imagery.
Surface through lower level ridging stretches across the southeastern United States while a trough remains aligned over the Bahamas. The Keys will remain trapped between the ridge to our north and troughing over the Bahamas. The trough is expected to shift slightly westward overnight. The combination of a ridge stretching along the southeastern United States and a trough aligned over the Bahamas will drive generally gentle to moderate northeast to easterly breezes on Keys waters overnight.
The upper pattern noted in the previous discussion remains the same, a SW- NE orientated trough of low pressure is off the central California coastline and a subtropical high centered over the southern Baja. By early this coming week, the trough off the central coast of California will move southeast to the southern California coast which will enhance the lifting mechanism needed to complete the ingredients for thunderstorm development. Enhanced by the trough, deep moisture will be funneled in from the Gulf of California, keeping PWATs well above normal for the next several days. The low pressure system will linger off the coast of southern California until the middle of the week encouraging daily chances for thunderstorms. After this point, confidence in the direction this trough will move is low. Time will tell how this trough will evolve.
659 PM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025 Updated at 653 PM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025 - Isolated to scattered showers/thunderstorms (15-40%) continue through tonight across southeast New Mexico, Lower Trans Pecos, and the higher terrain.
A few light showers have developed this evening along the sea breeze collision across the Nature Coast as there was just enough moisture in place combined with the low level convergence from the sea breeze. Upper level flow is quasi-zonal across the Florida Peninsula with a high to the south and the persistent troughing along the east coast to the north. At the surface, high pressure is located near the Mid- Atlantic with continue northeasterly flow at the surface. Highs today will climb into the low 90s for most locations. A deep trough will dig southward into the Gulf.
Skies remain mostly clear west to cloudy east as mid level clouds wrap around a upper level low analyzed over Minnesota. This low however does not translate to the surface. At the surface, a high pressure sits in that same spot. At the mid-levels the western CONUS is a weak ridge the extends to western North Dakota where the backside of that upper level low sits. The far west will likely see highs in the low 80s. Away from the thermal ridge, in the east, temperatures will warm into the low 70s.
Low level northeast winds will continue across the area through the remainder of the weekend as high pressure remains extended along the eastern U. However, a prevailing moderate onshore flow and sufficient moisture in the lower levels will still continue a slight (20%) chance for onshore moving showers along the coast into tonight. Temperatures will remain close to normal, with lows tonight in the low to mid 70s and highs in the mid to upper 80s at the coast and upper 80s to around 90 degrees inland.
529 PM MDT Sat Sep 20 2025 - Warmer and drier for Sunday, with just minimal shower and storm activity expected over the higher terrain.
With early clearing of the high clouds from morning convection, instability has ramped up across the region; ACARS sounds show around 1100 J/kg of MUCAPE at KSTL. The strongest thunderstorms will be capable of up to 50 mph gusts as the cores drop through the low- level dry air. The low-level jet will re-strengthen overnight, with the nose positioned into southeast Missouri.
With some mid level dry air and freezing levels around or just above 12000 feet, could see some large hail and damaging winds in stronger thunderstorms over portions of southeast Ohio and northeast Kentucky during the afternoon hours.
1220 AM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025 Most of the day's convection has dissipated but similar to this time last evening, isolated showers were across portions of the Highway 84 corridor.
- High temperatures will be mostly in the 70s this week, with occasional readings in the low 80s, including in western ND this afternoon. However, western ND is forecast to reach the low 80s as it will be under the influence of a thermal ridge and southerly surface flow. For Monday, the pressure gradient will tighten in western ND from low pressure over southern Canada and high pressure over western Montana.
247 AM MDT Sun Sep 21 2025 - Weather system brings the chance of precipitation, cooler temperatures, and gusty northwest winds to the region later today into Monday. A weather system and associated cold front will then bring the chance of precipitation, cooler temperatures, and breezy conditions back across the region later today into Monday.
1205 AM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025 Updated at 1205 AM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025 - Isolated to scattered showers/thunderstorms (15-40%) continue through tonight across southeast New Mexico, Lower Trans Pecos, and the higher terrain.
An active weather pattern is in the offing for the Ozarks this coming week as several upper level troughs move through the region. This will bring dally shower and thunderstorm chances to the area with the passage of each trough.
Entering into the new work week, a weak troughing feature overhead will help instigate renewed convection across our northwest early Monday, accompanied by additional slight chances firing up in the afternoon and trending off overnight while storms to the north attempt to linger. That discernible trough will start to flatten out while a much more potent closed low intensifies over the Rockies of Colorado and Wyoming. The jury is still out as to whether the low will remain closed throughout, at one point potentially forming an almost sideways trough extending along an axis from the Front Range of Colorado to the Great Lakes before the low reorganizes over the upper midwest, loses structure and distends as it takes shape once again.
The upper pattern this morning is defined by high amplitude trough of low pressure off the central California coastline and a subtropical high centered over the central Gulf of California and southern Sonora Mexico.
Meanwhile, the trough currently making landfall over the PAC NW moves over the Rockies on Mon and out over the Plains late in the day Tue. Guidance points now to a deeper trough developing over KY by the end of the day Fri, but how it all gets there is still uncertain. Looking toward the weekend, it is uncertain the further progression of the trough to the SW, but not much NE or E progression is anticipated. Not to mention, high pressure in its wake favor dry weather this coming weekend. Anticipate fluctuation between MVFR and VFR to continue at all TAF sites early this morning with an upper level low over the region.
A couple smaller upper level lows are rotating through broader troughing that extends from the Canadian Rockies to the Ohio River Valley. Tomorrow and tomorrow night look very similar to today, with the only difference being the upper low tracks over the Northland, providing more lift. As the upper low moves to the east Monday, drier air will wrap around the western side of the low with any rain chances confined to the Arrowhead and northwest WI. The upper low gets caught over the Great Lakes due to weak upper level flow.
101 AM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025 - Start week high temperatures in the lower-middle 80s will cool into the 70s by and for the back half of the week. Subtle height falls are modeled as a reflection of the primary synoptic scale cyclone that moves in over the course of the week, with a number of pieces of pva energy channeling within the dips in the flow pattern as this metamorphosis occurs with time.
1255 AM MDT Sun Sep 21 2025 - Showers and thunderstorms likely today - Some storms may produce gusty winds and moderate to heavy rainfall - Cooler temperature Monday before warming back up mid to late week Early morning satellite imagery shows a complex of clouds along the borders of Idaho, Nevada and Utah slowly spiraling up into the south hills region. Meanwhile to our NW, an upper level trough will push south into the northern part of the state later today pushing a frontal boundary through the area later tonight and into Monday. The highest PoPs are focused across the higher terrain but the lower valleys will not be exempt from precipitation either.
Temperatures have been slowly warming through the 60s into the low 70s on north-northwesterly winds generally at or below 10 mph. Monday morning, we are sandwiched between 2 upper level troughs, one over southern Ontario and the other over western MT.
142 AM EDT Sun Sep 21 2025 High pressure builds into the region with above average temperatures expected again on Sunday. Robust high pressure over New England today with surface ridging extending southward along the East Coast, pushing a backdoor cold front into the area. This cold front may lead to highs a degree or two lower but with upper heights similar to yesterday, not expecting a significant cool down associated with this front. Low temperatures tonight also a couple degrees cooler, in the low to mid 60s.
Pattern Synopsis and Forecast: Trough continues to move eastward through the day today, with height falls, abundant moisture, and an embedded short wave this afternoon into the early portions of tonight. Plenty of diffluent/divergent flow is aiding this feature due to an upper low across WI with an additional vort max to the southeast across northwest lower. The trough continues to move eastward with height falls through the day and into tonight, along with an approaching jet streak later in the day and into tonight.
* For today, we have just enough instability and moisture to allow for showers and isolated thunderstorms with a passage of weak trough and front. * For the first half of the upcoming week, the overall synoptic pattern features a cutoff low situated over SoCal with high pressure building over NorCal/PacNW. The building high pressure will lead to a warming and drying trend through at least mid- week, with temperatures around 2-4 degrees above average for late September.
Another strong wave dives southeast across the Rockies and Plains Monday evening, shunting a cold front through the area.
250 AM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025 - Warmer then average through the week with dry weather expected. A very perturbed flow pattern across the northern plains will eventually give way to an omega block by the end of the week with the current group of upper lows continuing their eastward drift with a PNW trough diving south through the northern rockies early in the week becoming the eastern feature in the omega block as it dips into the southeast and deepens.
133 AM EDT Sun Sep 21 2025 High pressure in place today and Sunday will keep weather conditions quiet and dry the rest of the weekend. Main concerns in the near term are focused on the dominant ridge of high pressure over the Northeast US which will keep the entire region dry with above average high temperatures and cool, with slightly below average, overnight temperatures. Clear skies today will continue into this evening with temperatures warming into the low to mid 70s. Winds shift to the south/se and increase slightly tonight as the ridge axis moves eastward in preparation for an incoming wave from the west. which will usher in warmer temperatures as well. with dew points in the low to mid 50s.
224 AM MDT Sun Sep 21 2025 KEY MESSAGES: 1) Above average temperatures, dry conditions, and areas of smoke before a cold front moves in tonight to bring rain chances.
208 AM EDT Sun Sep 21 2025 High pressure in place today will keep weather conditions quiet and dry the rest of the weekend.
Central Indiana will remain under the influence of a large upper trough throughout the short term period. Thanks to increased cloud cover, highs today will be a little cooler than previous days, with readings in the lower and middle 80s expected. Forcing will ramp up overnight as an upper level jet moves to the northwest of the area, and upper heights fall as the upper trough moves closer.
- Monitoring the potential for a midweek cold front that may bring drier air and cooler temperatures.
Latest CAMs show very limited convective activity through the afternoon, and model soundings show warmer air in the lower levels keeping a lid on things. KEY MESSAGES: - Rain chances increase tonight with a warm front ---------------------------------------------------------------- Tonight the area will see increasing rain chances as a warm front crosses the region, particularly over eastern Ohio counties where latest ensemble guidance shows up to 50% PoPs. On Monday, the Day 2 Marginal was expanded east almost to the ridges as there should be better shear to organize convection. KEY MESSAGES: - Measurable rain expected in the period - Near average temperatures expected late week ------------------------------------------------------------------ Ridging over the northeast CONUS will weaken as an upper trough drops in out of the north.
Skies remain mostly clear west to cloudy east as mid level clouds wrap around a upper level low analyzed over Minnesota. This low however does not translate to the surface. At the surface, a high pressure sits in that same spot. At the mid-levels the western CONUS is a weak ridge the extends to western North Dakota where the backside of that upper level low sits. The far west will likely see highs in the low 80s. Away from the thermal ridge, in the east, temperatures will warm into the low 70s. The rest of the week looks to be in a Omega blocking pattern that slowly moves east.
1158 PM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025 - Above average temperatures continue through Monday then pleasantly cooler the remainder of the week. By the weekend we could see a grand total of 2-3" of rain on the high end.
With the upper trough overhead, can't go completely dry later tonight as a few isolated showers could pop up at times.
1121 PM MDT Sat Sep 20 2025 - Warmer and drier for Sunday, with just minimal shower and storm activity expected over the higher terrain.
1240 AM EDT Sun Sep 21 2025 High pressure will continue to allow for clear skies and chilly temperatures tonight, with frost across northern areas. This high pressure area will slowly settle southeast for later today and into tonight, moving across the North Country and across northern New England for Sunday. With the high pressure nearby and clear skies in place, temperatures will fall easily this evening and it will be a rather chilly night for tonight. On Sunday, dry, sunny and pleasant weather will continue with high pressure still nearby.
The aforementioned trough will shift to the east and northwest flow will move in from the west. Hot temperatures are expected Monday as an upper ridge builds over the southern Plains. Many locations will get into the low 90s, while locations to the southwest will approach 100 F.
Upper troughing moves into the area late this evening helping to spark off isolated to locally scattered showers and storms this afternoon into evening, mainly across interior portions of the forecast area. Afternoon temperatures remain well above normal today and Monday, with highs in the lower to middle 90's.
114 AM MDT Sun Sep 21 2025 -Sunny and warm today -Cool front will bring breezy winds and a few showers to the area Monday -Dry with above normal temperatures mid-week on Upper ridge ahead of the Pac NW upper trough will support sunny and warm conds today. After this trough passes through the region, blocking ridge will build into the region, supporting dry and warm weather. Upper trough will dive SE into the central Rockies Monday, forcing a cold front into the region. Upper ridge will build across the Northern Plains as a quasi-omega block develops, with dry weather and above normal temps looking likely across the region.
Just how long the low cloud deck lingers varies tremendously in the model guidance and that could play a role in just how warm the temperatures may get today. Given the high uncertainty, have kept NBM highs in the forecast for now, but will note there are models that keep highs in the 70s across the central and moreso the east for this afternoon.
508 AM MDT Sun Sep 21 2025 -Sunny and warm today -Cool front will bring breezy winds and a few showers to the area Monday -Dry with above normal temperatures mid-week on Upper ridge ahead of the Pac NW upper trough will support sunny and warm conds today. After this trough passes through the region, blocking ridge will build into the region, supporting dry and warm weather. Upper trough will dive SE into the central Rockies Monday, forcing a cold front into the region. Upper ridge will build across the Northern Plains as a quasi-omega block develops, with dry weather and above normal temps looking likely across the region.
Quigley Issued 407 AM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025 Today through Monday: A broad troughing pattern across the region will persist today through Monday.
The rain chances (15-30%) will be limited to south of I- 80, with the highest chances along and south of the boundary. Split flow remains over the western CONUS with a ridge over Montana and an upper trough coming ashore over southern California. A closed upper low over eastern North Dakota and northwestern Minnesota will slide east today with the Central Plains under northwest flow. Monday, the upper trough moves off to the east over Lake Superior. An upper trough over the Rockies will deepen, with a closed upper low developing to the west of the Bighorns. Increased coverage and chances (30-50%) for showers and storms are expected Monday evening as the closed low slides southeast.
432 AM MDT Sun Sep 21 2025 - Showers and thunderstorms likely today - Some storms may produce gusty winds and moderate to heavy rainfall - Cooler temperature Monday before warming back up mid to late week Early morning satellite imagery shows a complex of clouds along the borders of Idaho, Nevada and Utah slowly spiraling up into the south hills region. Meanwhile to our NW, an upper level trough will push south into the northern part of the state later today pushing a frontal boundary through the area later tonight and into Monday. The highest PoPs are focused across the higher terrain but the lower valleys will not be exempt from precipitation either.
626 AM EDT Sun Sep 21 2025 High pressure builds into the region with above average temperatures expected again on Sunday. Robust high pressure over New England today with surface ridging extending southward along the East Coast, pushing a backdoor cold front into the area. This cold front may lead to highs a degree or two lower but with upper heights similar to yesterday, not expecting a significant cool down associated with this front. Low temperatures tonight also a couple degrees cooler, in the low to mid 60s.
Issued 407 AM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025 Today through Monday: A broad troughing pattern across the region will persist today through Monday.
635 AM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025 Upper troughing moves into the area late this evening helping to spark off isolated to locally scattered showers and storms this afternoon into evening, mainly across interior portions of the forecast area. Afternoon temperatures remain well above normal today and Monday, with highs in the lower to middle 90's.
Meanwhile, the trough currently making landfall over the PAC NW moves over the Rockies on Mon and out over the Plains late in the day Tue. Guidance points now to a deeper trough developing over KY by the end of the day Fri, but how it all gets there is still uncertain. Looking toward the weekend, it is uncertain the further progression of the trough to the SW, but not much NE or E progression is anticipated. Not to mention, high pressure in its wake favor dry weather this coming weekend.
632 AM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025 - Warmer then average through the week with dry weather expected. A very perturbed flow pattern across the northern plains will eventually give way to an omega block by the end of the week with the current group of upper lows continuing their eastward drift with a PNW trough diving south through the northern rockies early in the week becoming the eastern feature in the omega block as it dips into the southeast and deepens.