Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A deep and cold trough off the California coastline this morning will dive into Arizona later today, briefly becoming negatively tilted late this afternoon. Strong frontogenetic forcing accompanies the trough passage, peaking in the Flagstaff area around rush hour, before racing eastward in the evening. This is a great scenario for heavy snowfall in our area, the trough moves fairly fast, or we would have a real problem on our hands. Nonetheless, we expect roughly 8-12 inches of snow with the trough passage and snow levels plummet below 4000 feet behind the front, bringing travel impacts to a large areas of of our CWA. We have boosted snow amounts for the trailing system, we may need additional headlines in the high country, but none for now. A ridge develops for the weekend, for another warming trend and dry weather.
The low levels between 900-850 mb are much more moist today due an increase in lower level moisture. From synopsis, high pressure east of the Florida Peninsula will keep shifting eastward this afternoon and tonight.
748 AM CDT Thu Mar 13 2025 Through Tonight: An upper-level low pressure system sliding east along the Interstate 40 corridor overnight has been instigating an area of thunderstorms under its colder mid-level temps (across central/eastern AR into far northern MS), but upper-level cold front feature was not enough to sustain showery development in our forecast area beyond midnight. Surface flow will remain out of the south as the broader synoptic low over the High Plains takes shape.
A Winter Storm Warning for the Sierra Nevada and a Winter Weather Advisory for the Lower Sierra remains in effect through this evening. A Winter Storm Warning for the Sierra Nevada and a Winter Weather Advisory for the Lower Sierra remains in effect through 11 PM tonight. Around 2 inches of snow is conceivable over the higher elevations of the West Side Hills in western Fresno County, northwest of Coalinga.
High impact today with a strong Pacific upper level trof moving through Idaho with associated cold front which will bring mountain snow, valley rain and strong winds. Expect major travel impacts mainly above 6 thousand feet today with strong winds expected as well both ahead of and behind a strong cold front moving through eastern Idaho this morning. Expect mainly rain in the Eastern Magic Valley and Snake River Plain but could see a period of snow immediately after cold frontal passage but not expecting significant accumulation mainly under an inch.
623 AM CDT Thu Mar 13 2025 - Patchy freezing drizzle, light freezing rain, and light snow are possible this morning along and just south of the International Border, especially the northern Red River Valley. - Winter impacts are expected this weekend as a strong storm system brings freezing rain, heavy snow, and blowing snow into the region. Still looking at a dusting of snow in some areas, with pockets of light freezing rain. Zonal H5 flow this morning will give way to weak ridging later this afternoon, followed by an approaching upper low heading into Friday. This will bring our next chance for significant moisture into the area in the form of rain, freezing rain, and snow. As the upper low approaches the area late Friday, rain and isolated thunderstorms are expected across much of the region.
A strong low pressure system and cold front will bring windy conditions and snow accumulations across Nevada through tonight.
336 AM MDT Thu Mar 13 2025 KEY MESSAGES: - Snow and slick roads over mountain passes on Thursday afternoon and evening A trough of low pressure will move inland this morning, pushing an associated cold front through the Northern Rockies by early afternoon. Precipitation will increase across western Montana and north-central Idaho through the morning, accompanied by gusty westerly winds with and behind the cold front.
412 AM CDT Thu Mar 13 2025 - Patchy freezing drizzle, light freezing rain, and light snow are possible this morning along and just south of the International Border, especially the northern Red River Valley. - Winter impacts are expected this weekend as a strong storm system brings freezing rain, heavy snow, and blowing snow into the region. Zonal H5 flow this morning will give way to weak ridging later this afternoon, followed by an approaching upper low heading into Friday. This will bring our next chance for significant moisture into the area in the form of rain, freezing rain, and snow. As the upper low approaches the area late Friday, rain and isolated thunderstorms are expected across much of the region.
Atmospheric dynamics have been active in the PACNW over the past 24 hours with the passing of a pronounced, deep trough and associated frontal boundary.
Lows in the morning mostly in the lower 60s and then highs tomorrow generally lower 80s, but lowering RH and gusty winds ahead of the big storm approaching.
High pressure previously sitting over the area continues to move eastward out into the Atlantic Ocean allowing for southerly flow to set in. Current highs today are in the mid to high 70s, but this developing southerly flow will generate warmer temperatures heading into the weekend. Inland temperatures are expected to approach 90 degrees over the weekend with coastal highs in the low to mid 80s.
Quiet conditions will continue across our forecast area this morning as global guidance highlights a 1005 mb upper level low pressure system hovering over the Interstate 40 corridor shifting east across the Tennessee River Valley Region. Meanwhile, areas along and south of I-20 will see highs in the low 80s.
- Winter impacts are expected this weekend as a strong storm system brings freezing rain, heavy snow, and blowing snow into the region. Zonal H5 flow this morning will give way to weak ridging later this afternoon, followed by an approaching upper low heading into Friday. This will bring our next chance for significant moisture into the area in the form of rain, freezing rain, and snow. As the upper low approaches the area late Friday, rain and isolated thunderstorms are expected across much of the region.
- Winter impacts are expected this weekend as a strong storm system brings freezing rain, heavy snow, and blowing snow into the region.
(add 10 at 10) Our sounding said 86 for the high, but today's record technically lies within the range of calibration acceptance.
-Much cooler conditions arrive this weekend. South winds will increase tonight as low pressure continues to develop to our west, increasing the pressure gradient.
204 PM EDT Thu Mar 13 2025 - The next 24 will be quiet, with much warmer temperatures and breezy conditions Friday.
252 PM EDT Thu Mar 13 2025 - Warmer than normal temperatures are expected into the weekend.
- Meteorological Overview: A Pacific cold front is progressing across the region this afternoon associated with a splitting upper level trough across the western CONUS. The cooler air behind this front will help transition any lower elevation rain to snow this evening, mostly east of I-15 and near and south of I-90. Cross barrier flow approaches 40-45 kts or so this evening along the Northern Rocky Mountain Front behind the Pacific cold front. Chances are only around 20% between Bozeman and Big Sky on US-191, but the timing of the higher rates made me consider a Winter Storm Warning even if total snow amounts weren't around or more than 9 inches at lower elevations.
Road conditions and visibility is expected to diminish within the next couple hours so if you haven't set out already to travel across the high country, don't.
The region of high pressure continues to move further out into the Atlantic while local winds have begun to calm as we head into the night. Winds are expected to pick back up across the area tomorrow afternoon but remain relatively weak due to the relaxed high pressure gradient. Weak high pressure will remain across the waters through Friday with light winds and minimal seas.
Not much else happening tonight even with the axis of the cold upper trough coming in.
719 PM EDT Thu Mar 13 2025 - Warmer than normal temperatures are expected into the weekend.
The southeasterly flow has allowed the lower levels to moisten considerably over the past 24 hours.
A Winter Storm Warning for the Sierra Nevada and a Winter Weather Advisory for the Lower Sierra remains in effect through this evening. A cold upper trough is currently pushing eastward across CA. A deep moisture surge ahead of the trough brought half and inch to an inch of rainfall to most of the San Joaquin Valley and one to two inches of rainfall to most of the Sierra Foothills overnight and this morning. Because of the lower snow levels, the threat for flooding around the burn large burn scar areas has been alleviated for now.
653 PM EDT Thu Mar 13 2025 - The next 24 will be quiet, with much warmer temperatures and breezy conditions Friday.
A strong low pressure system is bringing strong winds and blowing dust, dense at times, to the area today with widespread chances for showers and mountain snow tonight.
Water vapor imagery early this afternoon depicts a jet max aloft across the Southern CONUS as an upper trough moves over the Great Basin. At the surface, lee troughing across the High Plains has resulted in southerly winds beginning to overspread Kansas while skies remain mostly clear. Short-range models continue to prog the upper trough ejecting into the Southern Rockies by 12Z Friday. These will eventually shift around to the west/northwest as the associated cold front tracks from west to east.
926 PM PDT Thu Mar 13 2025 Cool, breezy and wet weather will continue through Friday as low pressure continues to dominate. Weak high pressure will pass over the area this weekend, leading to drier and warmer conditions.
228 AM MDT Fri Mar 14 2025 KEY MESSAGES: 1) An area of light rain moving across NE Montana early this morning will transition to light snow this morning as colder air moves into the region behind a cold front.
16 Previous short-term discussion: (This evening through Friday) We will have a brief lull in activity overnight tonight through much of the day Friday as weak upper level ridging moves in ahead of a deepening upper level trough. Moisture will begin to increase across the southeastern CONUS through the day Friday as the low level jet ramps up.
A warm front will approach the region later tonight, and models suggest potential for some patchy low clouds to develop late, especially in the E-SE upslope flow areas of C/NC WI. Once the warm front lifts north, a warm and capped atmosphere should bring dry conditions for the afternoon and early evening. the main surge of showers and storms with the approaching low pressure system will move through during the late evening and early overnight hours. the occluding low pressure system will track west of the region, reaching western Lake Superior Saturday night.
1245 AM EDT Fri Mar 14 2025 - Warmer than normal temperatures are expected into the weekend.
- Warm conditions continue through Saturday and record highs in the low 80s are in jeopardy today.
407 AM EDT Fri Mar 14 2025 - Warmer than normal temperatures are expected into the weekend.
127 AM EDT Fri Mar 14 2025 - The next 24 will be quiet, with much warmer temperatures and breezy conditions Friday. - Stronger winds are likely Saturday prior to the passage of a strong cold front. Gusty winds to around 30 kts will also be possible as mixing up into the lower depths of the low level jet ensues. County fire officials have reported numerous grass and field fires over the past several days as landowners and farmers take advantage of the warmer weather. Even as winds subside and cooler temperatures return late in the weekend, chances for wetting rainfall are not promising so the overall dry conditions will persist.
331 AM EDT Fri Mar 14 2025 (Today through Saturday) 500mb analysis shows a longwave trough off of the southeast coast. Ridging in the mid levels will build today, but will quickly break down as SW flow aloft takes over by tonight. At the surface, high pressure will move off the southeast coast today as strong low pressure moves out of the intermountain west. The low pressure center will drag a cold front eastward tonight and Saturday. A line of convection is expected to develop out ahead of the cold front and begin crossing the Mississippi River late Saturday afternoon/early Saturday evening.
Elsewhere, a potent low pressure system is building in the central Great Plains. This leeside cyclone will rapidly develop by sunset, warranting a moderate risk from the Storm Prediction Center over Iowa, Illinois, and Missouri. Tomorrow, the area of risk will shift southward as a cold front sweeps across the Mississippi Valley.
(Today through Saturday) 500mb analysis shows a longwave trough off of the southeast coast. Ridging in the mid levels will build today, but will quickly break down as SW flow aloft takes over by tonight. At the surface, high pressure will move off the southeast coast today as strong low pressure moves out of the intermountain west. The low pressure center will drag a cold front eastward tonight and Saturday. A line of convection is expected to develop out ahead of the cold front and begin crossing the Mississippi River late Saturday afternoon/early Saturday evening.
The western periphery of high pressure over the western North Atlantic extends into the the Florida Keys, though, some drainage from the mainland continues this morning. The 12z morning sounding shows a mostly dry profile, though, some low level moisture remains in the lowest 1000-2000 ft AGL.
- Well above average temperatures today; slightly cooler this weekend behind a weak and dry cold front. At the same time, a potent upper level low will move from northeast New Mexico into southeast Nebraska.
Upper-trough continues to lift through Southeast Idaho and will exit to our east early today.
- Additional thunderstorms, some severe especially across south central Louisiana, will develop into Saturday morning ahead of a cold front. The upper trough will deepen as it ejects out of the plains with a surge of moisture pooling into the area.
/SEC (Today through Saturday) 500mb analysis shows a longwave trough off of the southeast coast. Ridging in the mid levels will build today, but will quickly break down as SW flow aloft takes over by tonight. At the surface, high pressure will move off the southeast coast today as strong low pressure moves out of the intermountain west. The low pressure center will drag a cold front eastward tonight and Saturday. A line of convection is expected to develop out ahead of the cold front and begin crossing the Mississippi River late Saturday afternoon/early Saturday evening.
(This evening through Saturday) Current radar showing isolated shower activity as the widespread rainfall associated with the weak warm front this morning has largely vacated. Isolated showers will continue into this afternoon as the cold front finally pushes through.
- A stronger upper level disturbance and cold front will give higher chances of showers and thunderstorms Saturday morning into early afternoon. The highest chances of showers and thunderstorms, along with a Enhanced to Moderate Risk of severe thunderstorms, remains across Central and South Central Louisiana.
A strong, negatively tilted 500mb trof will move through the upper midwest this evening and tonight.
A weak Canadian cold front will move through the forecast area Saturday morning, but with no significant change in the quality of the air mass from a temperature perspective highs will not deviate much from those of today for most areas. A secondary mid/upper level short wave trough is progged to move across eastern New Mexico Saturday morning as well, although lift is now looking more measured and moisture limited.
142 PM EDT Fri Mar 14 2025 Northwest flow is in place aloft this afternoon as upper ridging builds ahead of a low moving into the central U. while weak high pressure holds at the surface. This setup has led to another pleasant but warmer day, with highs in the lower to mid 80s.
(Tonight through Saturday) Models depict robust high pressure ridge across most of the Florida peninsula and the west Atlantic, while a deepening trough/low complex is expected to move across the northern CONUS. This trough will push an associated sfc frontal boundary towards the state and down into the E Gulf waters on Saturday. Ensemble solutions and global models show fair agreement in having the ridge remaining firm in place through Saturday, providing enough blocking to keep any weather related to the aforementioned trough/low system well north of the area. The ridge itself will begin shifting eastward as the aforementioned front approaches the state from the NW. As this synoptic scenario unfolds, expect temperatures to warm up again into the low 80s near coastal locations, and mid to upper 80s over inland areas.
138 PM PDT Fri Mar 14 2025 Light to moderate showers will continue this afternoon, dissipating overnight as an area of low pressure moves into the West Coast. Drier and sunnier weather will make an appearance this weekend as high pressure moves into the area with calmer winds.
- Slightly cooler this weekend, with low rain chances far southeast Oklahoma into west central Arkansas on Saturday. The main change with the updated forecast has been to extend the Red Flag Warning and the High Wind Warning/Wind Advisory headlines through 10 pm, with only slow improvement expected after sunset. (Tomorrow through Friday) A cold front will move through the area during the day Saturday as another, weaker disturbance pushes southeastward.
Yesterday's upper level trough has moved east of the area setting up zonal flow across the area ahead of the next upper level trough. This next upper level trough is currently off the Oregon/Washington coast. Portions of this trough will move across our area late tonight into Saturday.
Unusually strong westerlies and cyclonic flow extending from the east Pacific across the southern CONUS into our region will drive a powerful central CONUS cyclone and create a volatile set-up for severe weather. There is high confidence that the trough will swing through and bring a quick end to convective rainfall Friday evening.
Strong secondary frontal wave development within base of sharp upper trough over the lower OH valley tomorrow aftn will rocket newd into se ON by daybreak Sun.
Sites on the Spring Mountains have measured around a tenth of an inch while the lower elevations have recorded a few hundreths or less.
Will allow the high wind warning to expire at 7 PM CDT.
Winter Weather Advisories are in effect for much of the high country above 5000 feet.
Subsidence from high pressure aloft allowed for sunny skies and warming temperatures today, with highs topping out in the low to mid 80s across much of the area. Weak high pressure will hold over the waters today, then winds will shift to southerly and increase this weekend ahead of a cold front.
- Slightly cooler this weekend, with low rain chances far southeast Oklahoma into west central Arkansas on Saturday. Have converted the High Wind Warning into a Wind Advisory has winds have diminished below warning criteria. The blowing dust and smoke will continue to plague the area tonight in advance of the cold front/wind shift. (Tomorrow through Friday) A cold front will move through the area during the day Saturday as another, weaker disturbance pushes southeastward.
Our dew points in the lower 60s in E TX with initiation on approach. There are some cooler upper 70s under the thicker remaining blanket of clouds. The convective weather will progress out of our area late Saturday as high pressure arrives to make for a nice quiet Sunday.
- Slightly cooler this weekend, with low rain chances far southeast Oklahoma into west central Arkansas on Saturday. Have converted the High Wind Warning into a Wind Advisory has winds have diminished below warning criteria. The blowing dust and smoke will continue to plague the area tonight in advance of the cold front/wind shift.
929 PM PDT Fri Mar 14 2025 Light showers will persist for a few more hours, dissipating overnight as a low pressure trough moves inland. High pressure will bring dry and sunnier weather with lighter winds this weekend.
(Today and tonight) The upper-level trough axis will sweep across West Central Texas today with another round of windy, dry, and potentially dusty conditions today. High temperatures this afternoon will be slightly cooler, ranging in the mid 60s to lower 70s, and overnight lows tonight fall into the 30s to near 40.
The upper low responsible for the severe weather yesterday was stacked over northwest Iowa this morning. As this low lifts north this morning, moisture will continue to wrap around into the deformation zone and produce precipitation.
355 AM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 - Breezy to windy conditions today and cooler. Back west we note the low center pivoting through west central Iowa. Temperatures will be considerably cooler today, especially after the record breaking warmth of yesterday but still near to even slightly above average from the upper 40s to possibly near 60. Temperatures will drop near to below freezing, but the warm ground should preclude much in the way of impacts with some minor accumulations not out of the question on some grassy/elevated surfaces. Yes that's correct, 30-36 hrs after record highs in the lower 80s we could be talking about a little snow accum for some.
As a strong, upper lvl trough pushes towards the area, the low-lvl jet will strengthen during the afternoon over the region.
This Afternoon: Record warmth and elevated to critical fire weather conditions Upper low, on 18z WV satellite over south central Kansas, is churning northeastward today. This Evening: Severe thunderstorms Modeled large scale pattern from nearly all available guidance over the past 3-5 days continues in latest runs - upper low will continue to churn northeastward with the associated surface cyclone and attendant Pacific front racing eastward across the Midwest. As an area of low pressure moves through the region tonight and Saturday, showers may develop (30-40%) around LSE in the early morning hours of Saturday. Winds increase again Saturday, shifting clockwise with time as the aforementioned low pressure moves through.
A large and strong low pressure system will lift up across the Great Lakes through the day as a secondary wave forms over the TN Valley and lifts northeastward as a cold front approaches from the west. Most of the heavy showers and storms will be done by midnight Saturday evening with cooler temps and some residual scattered showers for Sunday. Skies will clear out and winds will settle Sunday night as cooler and dry high pressure moves in.
The combination of earlier day time heating and broad ridging off the Atlantic Coast that extends across Florida has resulted broadly easterly breezes across the Keys this evening. Deep layered ridging remains in place along with considerable dry air aloft. This is due to an expected vigorous cold front passage Sunday night that is associated with the previously mentioned trough pushing into the Gulf. Broad Atlantic ridging off the Atlantic coast and reaching across the Floridaafter midnight Peninsula is resulting in light breezes on Keys waters, ranging from northeast to southeasterly. As a heads up, mariners can expect highly changeable conditions through the weekend due to an expected vigorous cold front passage Sunday night.
Dry and warmer weather will follow for the weekend as high pressure aloft builds over the region.
Over the Keys, the strengthening pressure gradient thanks to this low pressure system and a building Atlantic high will support freshening breezes over the weekend.
Updated at 340 AM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 - Breezy winds but cooler temperatures today.
335 AM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 - Cooler, breezy, and very dry today.