Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
735 PM EDT Tue May 28 2024 (Through Wednesday) Large-scale troughing shifts off to the east gradually while ridging builds over the Plains. Meanwhile, we're still embedded in northwesterly flow aloft, though now behind a cold front, meaning drier air is overtaking the area. Otherwise, lows will be "cooler" tonight, settling in the mid to upper 60s. Highs will once again be hot tomorrow in the lower to middle 90s.
overall the weather should be fairly repetitive this week, with weak high pressure dominating once the current trough moves to the east. The broad trough sitting offshore of Vancouver Island and has forced a weakening front onshore.
1021 PM EDT Tue May 28 2024 A cold front draped over the region pushes offshore this evening before a second front approaches Wednesday, moving through into Wednesday night.
Temperatures plummeted in the Lower Treasure Valley from near 90F to mid 60F as the afternoon storms passed. The cold front is still just west of Boise, but it appears to have passed Caldwell-Nampa due to the breezy northwesterly winds. This cold front will cool temperatures sufficiently tonight into tomorrow, with much cooler high temperatures, breezy westerly winds, and a low chance(<10%) of high terrain showers expected tomorrow. A cold frontal passage tonight will support showers mainly in/near the West Central Mtns after 29/06Z.
An upper level trough is evident passing by NW California this afternoon, allowing for all morning stratus to easily clear out from a weakened marine inversion. Otherwise, the trough has had little impact beyond some enhance fair weather cumulus over interior mountains.
611 PM EDT Tue May 28 2024 A cold front will cross the waters tonight through early Wednesday.
The earlier clearing for some of the more interior areas will make this afternoon slightly warmer than yesterday, and act as the start of our mid-week warming trend.
As even cooler air spreads into the area in northwest flow, lows are forecast around 50 degrees tonight. 37 This afternoon, long wave trough is in place over the Great Lakes with northwest flow over central Illinois. Severe storms are not anticipated in part due to weak instability (dew points in the lower 50s contributing to MLCAPE values of around 300-400 J/kg.
An upper-level low is situated to our west over the Lower MS River Valley which is seemingly dampening the ridge, although the ridge still has a foothold over the Deep South in the lower levels. Dewpoints look to be a couple degrees warmer tomorrow, but we'll probably only reach the lower 90s by early afternoon due to the higher rain chances. So, it's possible some areas could reach a heat index of 105F late tomorrow morning or early afternoon, but will hold off an issuing another Heat Advisory given the higher PoPs which should greatly reduce temperatures once storm outflow takes off, depending on where and how early storms initiate.
* Cooler and drier conditions remainder of the work week. * Some chances for showers/storms return for the weekend, but cooler temperatures to remain. Another effect of the morning convection and outflows has been to help suppress the northward rebound of the warm front. In conjunction with the area of high pressure dropping through the northern and central plains, hi-res guidance has latched onto and been consistent in pushing nocturnal convection south of the CWA and keeping it primarily in the SGF/LSX/PAH areas. Aforementioned area of high pressure and large scale NW flow aloft then dominates the region for the remainder of the work week.
(Wednesday through Thursday night) Pattern for moist southwesterly flow with daily bouts of showers and thunderstorms, forming most heavily along sea breeze boundaries and areas of collision, will continue through midweek with zonal flow becoming more enhanced by Thursday as the pressure gradient between high pressure ridging to the south and the high pressure boundary to the north tightens and results in a more distinct southwesterly wind profile pressing back the diurnal east coast sea breeze.
One more warm and humid day is expected with a few more storms possible ahead of a cold front shifting east during the afternoon.
The low-pressure system currently circulating off the west coast of Oregon has been tapping into monsoon moisture, producing thunderstorms overnight. A spoke of energy ahead of the low-pressure center is forecast to pass through the region later today, bringing a 10-20 percent chance of thunderstorms. As the low-pressure system moves north of the border overnight, there is a 15-30 percent chance of nocturnal thunderstorms, with the highest chances in northwest Montana. The rest of the week and the weekend are trending hotter, with high pressure strengthening over the region.
1103 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024 - Pleasant weather ahead! A cooler, less humid, and drier forecast through the rest of the week. Satellite imagery and RAP progs show an upper level trough which is forecast to move down across the Great Lakes into Wednesday, with a wave currently moving across the region. An amplified upper level pattern will remain as a strong ridge holds across the western U. and a trough over the east-central U. At the surface Canadian high pressure looks to dominate over the region bringing cooler conditions and less humid air.
Cooler conditions finally arrive in the Midsouth today. Much of the region should remain at or below 90 degrees, the exception being portions of north Mississippi where there will be one more day in the low to middle 90s. Rain and thunderstorms will sweep across the region ahead of a cold front during the day today.
One benefit of increased cloudiness and rainfall potential will be on average slightly cooler afternoon high temperatures with highs ranging generally upper 80s to lower 90s. A surface cold front will approach mid state region early this evening from our northwest and push southeastward through our area during evening hours tonight. If nothing else, those high pressure influences to our north will try to usher in some slightly cooler air to mid state region with highs on Thursday only spanning the 80s.
A brief lull in precip coverage is expected by early afternoon, however additional storms are likely as the aforementioned MCV will move nearer the region and the cold front and/or composite outflow boundary acts to focus new storms.
- Cooler temperatures will make for a pleasant end to the week. An upper level trough has edged into the area, swapping our flow around to northerly and allowing for cooler air to filter into the state.
Upper level troughing will present to our north, while we remain entrenched in tropical moisture. (Wednesday night through Thursday night) A 500mb trough will be in place across the Great lakes region both Wednesday and Thursday as it slowly progresses eastward. This trough, along with bringing in lower 500mb heights to the region is also aiding in retreating the Bermuda ridge east into the central Atlantic. Although the upper level ridge is expected to retreat east, it will continue to advect deep tropical moisture from the Caribbean into the deep south. These increased rain chances combined with the slightly lower 500mb heights over the region, high temperatures will climb into the low to mid 90s across the region, while lows Wednesday night will fall into the mid 70s.
KEY MESSAGES: - Showers and storms expected along and ahead of a cold front crossing over the course of the day. - Noticeably cooler daytime high temperatures. __________________________________________________________________ A front currently across the southern Great Lakes and associated upper trough will cross the region today, resulting in scattered showers and storms. Cloud coverage and timing of FROPA will play a big factor in daytime highs, but overall, it will be a noticeably cooler day across the region (10+ degrees F cooler).
With this high pressure in place through the remainder of the work week, expect dry and pleasant weather with sunny skies, highs in the 70s to low 80s, and dewpoints in the 50s.
The highest chances of precipitation should remain north of the I-40 corridor (along and just north of the frontal boundary) through much of the overnight period, but isolated to scattered showers and storms may develop south of I-40 closer to daybreak tomorrow morning as the front continues to push south.
The short term will oversee central Indiana's transition into much needed milder and less humid conditions, following a generally quiet cold frontal passage through midday today and the subsequent frontal zone's crossing through tonight.
1245 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024 - Cooler and drier air will continue to spread across the area through mid week. We are looking at a dry period of weather tonight through Wednesday night as lower dew point air works south across the area due to high pressure building over the northern Plains and Upper Midwest. Lows will be down into the 60s tonight, with cooler 50s Wednesday night. The aforementioned high pressure system will continue southeast through the end of the work week, with temperatures a bit below average and dry weather continuing. The overall pattern will be one where a strong upper level ridge will be set up over the Four Corners region, with a persistent upper trof over the eastern CONUS.
* High pressure then brings cooler, drier, and less humid conditions to the region through the end of the workweek.
443 AM EDT Wed Jul 17 2024 A cold front will move through today. Cooler and drier conditions will then move into the area for several days. A cold front will move through today. Precipitation will taper off during the first half of the night tonight as the cold front pushes east of the area. Cooler and drier conditions will then move into the area.
An upper trough axis will pivot through the region this morning. Highs will be on the cool side for July, only in the low to mid 70s, but it's a welcomed change after last week's hot and humid airmass. With dry air aloft, clear skies, and light winds will allow temperatures to dip into the low to mid 50s tonight and offer tired AC units an opportunity for a break. The culprit will be a slow moving pattern dominated by amped flow aloft with an impressive western ridge and stubborn trough over eastern NOAM. We'll be stuck in between with subsidence overhead west of the trough.
A cold front will bring additional scattered thunderstorms Wednesday along with continued warm and humid conditions.
- Cooler and drier for midweek with the arrival of high pressure.
For tomorrow we are expecting a similar setup except with the trough being closer by there will a bit more forcing.
Persistent pattern with low-level ridging across the local waters, potentially lifting a bit north late in the period.
1223 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024 - Few early shower/thunderstorm chances this evening - Bit cooler and less humid Wednesday.
1159 PM MDT Tue Jul 16 2024 UPDATED AVIATION SECTION Warm and mostly dry weather continues for the foreseeable future as upper level ridging remains parked over the area. Although upper level ridging is present across the region, enough instability has been around near the Idaho border to result in a few showers and thunderstorms early this evening. The overall weather pattern will be dominated by a high pressure ridge centered over the Northern Rockies, allowing a few thunderstorms with little if any rainfall to develop over the mountains between 20Z and 02Z.
(Today through Thursday) Typical mid July pattern will continue across South FL the next couple days with high pressure over the western Atlantic keeping a light E/SE flow across the area. Temperatures today and Thursday will remain toasty, with afternoon high temps in the low to mid 90s.
The region lies in a break between the strong mid level ridge over the western US and the Atlantic/Bermuda ridge out over the Atlantic with southerly flow around the Atlantic ridge. CAPE values ranging 1000 up to 3000 j/kg expected however, mid level lapse rates remain fairly low aoa 5 deg C/km thus heavy rainfall or higher rainfall rates looks to be the primary risk given the higher pwat values, followed by lightning and strong to damaging wind gusts.
Thereafter, a cold front will swing through, allowing a third and final chance of severe weather tomorrow.
Highs in the southwest are expected to reach the low to mid 80s. A few readings in the low 90s are possible in the southwest Thursday.
The good news is right now Thursday is looking a few degrees cooler and a Heat Advisory most likely will not be needed. Isolated activity may continue through the night, with lows dropping in the low to mid 70s once again.
149 AM EDT Wed Jul 17 2024 Showers and a few thunderstorms today will come to an end from west to east this afternoon as a cold front slides across the region.
1215 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024 (This evening through Wednesday) Upper level ridging is currently keeping our area dry and largely cloud free. Through the overnight hours, the ridge is expected to rotate, becoming more longitudinal in nature, and drift west. As this happens, a cold front, currently moving south through Central Oklahoma and the northern portion of the Texas Panhandle, will begin to approach our area. However, hi-res models are notoriously too slow with cold fronts so forecasts may need to be updated to account for a potentially faster moving front in the next package.
-Cooler, less humid and dry through the end of the week. A cold front is gradually dropping south into extreme northern Illinois as of this midday writing. CAMs continue to advertise scattered thunderstorms ahead of this cold front this afternoon and even well into the overnight, despite a cap noted on forecast soundings. Upper- level forcing is far removed from the cold front as it drifts south such that the cold front really is our only forcing mechanism. The cold front thus far has struggled to produce more than a few showers and shallow cumulus over southern Michigan and southern Wisconsin. A large upper-level trough drops in through the Great Lakes tomorrow presenting a low chance of showers and perhaps a thunderstorms.
Upper level trough over the Hudson Bay continues to shift southeastward today and tonight, with a weak short wave moving down from Canada. Winds go variable overnight, with dew point depressions in the low single digits to zero. Upper level ridging out in the western United States will extend into the Canadian Rockies bringing northerly flow to eastern North Dakota and northwestern Minnesota. The lift for the storms will be from the main short wave moving through, but also the cooler air aloft moving over the warmer surface temperatures. Further chances for precipitation over the weekend along with warmer temperatures.
South Texas continues to be sandwiched between to mid level high pressure systems. In addition, a mid level long wave trough is forecast to dig across the Plains and into Texas, bringing a frontal boundary southward into central and east TX. Thus, chances for convection are slightly better Thursday afternoon, but still in the low to medium (20-40%) range.
This will lead to forcing for ascent, and when coupled with the high moisture content (PWATs around 2 inches) given the established southerly flow, we'll have elevated chances for precip today.
As this trough moves onshore and ultimately passes over NRN Idaho for Thursday, this will lead to continued isolated to scattered shower and thunderstorm chances through Thursday as temperatures remain steady at above normal levels with highs in the upper 80s to upper 90s each day.
(Today through Thursday) An upper-level ridge over the Southwest will build further north through the period as an upper-level trough over the Midwest digs south into the Lower Mississippi River Valley. At the surface, a cold front is expected to work itâs way south into Central Texas Thursday, before stalling to the north of the CWA.
342 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024 Low level heights will maximize across the region today as weak upper trough approaches the Lower Mississippi River Valley. Overnight lows will range in the lower 70s. /AJ/ By Thursday, the upper ridge is expected to fully break down as a broad trough dips southwards, bringing a frontal boundary into the region.
638 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024 Cooler conditions finally arrive in the Midsouth today. Much of the region should remain at or below 90 degrees, the exception being portions of north Mississippi where there will be one more day in the low to middle 90s. Rain and thunderstorms will sweep across the region ahead of a cold front during the day today.
643 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024 Low level heights will maximize across the region today as weak upper trough approaches the Lower Mississippi River Valley. Overnight lows will range in the lower 70s. /AJ/ By Thursday, the upper ridge is expected to fully break down as a broad trough dips southwards, bringing a frontal boundary into the region.
Ridging will continue, with its northwest portion over central New Mexico and closer than yesterday keeping mid-levels dry and maintaining large-scale subsidence. Highs tomorrow will mark the start of a downward trend into this weekend, with highs only rising into the 80s over northern Lea County and Permian Basin as well as the higher elevations of the Guadalupes into the Davis Mountains and lower Trans Pecos, with triple digits confined to along the Rio Grande.
At the start of the period the synoptic pattern was highly amplified, with an upper ridge axis extending from the Four Corners region into western Canada and an upper trough over Ontario/the upper Great Lakes. Early Wed morning, a weak cold front was bisecting the ILX CWA and shifting southeast in time, located near/just north of the I-72 corridor as of 1:15am/0615z. As that cold front slowly shifts southeast today and eventually pushes south of the CWA, isolated showers are possible (10-20% chance) along the front. A cooling trend begins as northerly flow becomes dominant behind the front, and highs today will be in the low/mid 80s beneath mostly clear skies (partly cloudy south of I- 70). Into Sun, global models depict a weak but closed upper low forming over Missouri.
- Cooler temperatures are likely (60-70% chance) over the next 10 days as the precipitation also leans high than normal (33-40% chance). Rain cooled boundary layer air will help push the cold front farther south, leaving the entire forecast area in a cooler easterly upslope surface flow pattern for the next few days.
The shirt wave trough will finally push north of the area this morning. Meanwhile, a strong marine push is occuring along the coast, with low clouds pushing into all of the coastal valleys, and pouring in to the Umpqua Basin and potentially the lower Rogue and Applegate valleys by sunrise. Strong ridging remains centered on the Four-Corners region, and will maintain control over most of the western half of the country for the foreseeable future. Meanwhile, general troughing continues over Alaska and extending south into the northeast Pacific.
Otherwise another hot/humid day, with highs in the low to mid 90s and peak heat index values between 98 to 104 degrees.
It looks like a classic setup for northerly winds to strengthen ahead of an advancing high pressure system this afternoon and evening. - Isolated showers and storms today A mid to upper level disturbance moving in from the nnw will combine with weak instability from daytime heating and pool of cooler air aloft to bring potential for isolated storms. - Fair weather and below normal temps Thursday The high pressure ridge will build overhead Thursday and bring mostly sunny skies with seasonably cool temps in the lower to middle 70s and mins mainly in the 50s. While some weak troughing will exist aloft, the sfc pattern has a large area of high pressure overhead.
A cooler trend continues through the work week as troughing persists aloft, with near seasonably normal temperatures each day. Ridging may build aloft this weekend, potentially bringing a return of triple-digit temperatures across the interior. Winds will turn northerly through the day on Wednesday as the ridge builds back.
A band of high clouds is moving east across far northern California associated with the upper low moving northward along the southwest Oregon coast, otherwise skies are clear across interior NorCal as the elevated monsoon moisture has finally shifted to the north and east of the region. Minor height rises aloft develop as the low lifts further north into the PacNW leading to diminishing onshore flow today. This will result in slightly warmer temperatures in the Delta Breeze influenced areas and little change elsewhere. Elevated moisture working its way around the periphery of the high will bring a return of late-day thunderstorm chances to the Sierra south of Lake Tahoe beginning Thursday with the potential for storms to spread north along the Sierra/Cascade crest by the weekend.
629 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024 (Today through Thursday) An upper-level ridge over the Southwest will build further north through the period as an upper-level trough over the Midwest digs south into the Lower Mississippi River Valley. At the surface, a cold front is expected to work itâs way south into Central Texas Thursday, before stalling to the north of the CWA.
Meanwhile, broad, expansive Atlantic Ridge will hold steady roughly centered near 30N, 50W and extend an axis well westward across the Florida Peninsula. Atlantic ridging will remain across the Florida Peninsula through the forecast. Winds may strengthen this weekend as the ridge lifts northward into North Florida and the southeastern United States.
649 AM EDT Wed Jul 17 2024 A cold front will move through today. Cooler and drier conditions will then move into the area for several days. A cold front will move through today. Precipitation will taper off during the first half of the night tonight as the cold front pushes east of the area. Cooler and drier conditions will then move into the area.
Highs today should run warmer over our northwestern CWA (where POPs will be lower) in the mid to upper 90s. This front appears to be courtesy of the previously mentioned weak- ness region in the mid and upper pattern deepening to a more trough like arrangement over the area. Lows will be in the lower to mid 70s.
731 AM EDT Wed Jul 17 2024 (Today through Thursday) Typical mid July pattern will continue across South FL the next couple days with high pressure over the western Atlantic keeping a light E/SE flow across the area. Temperatures today and Thursday will remain toasty, with afternoon high temps in the low to mid 90s.
High pressure is centered across New Mexico early this morning but will start to shift slightly to the west over the next several days. The high remains centered over NM early this morning, though its location will start to slide a bit to the west through the day. As we head through the rest of the week, the high will continue to drift to the west and settling over NV/CA, though it may wobble a bit back and forth through that time. Expect chances to remain isolated to scattered across the state, though just where it remains the most active will vary from day to day as the location of the high will be the main driver for just how much convection we see and where it initiates each day.
516 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024 - Cooler and drier air continues to spread across the area. Highs today, should climb to the upper 70s north to the lower 80s central and south. This evening looks to be outstanding as winds decrease under 10 mph, and temperatures hold in the lower 70s through sunset.
602 AM EDT Wed Jul 17 2024 * Periodic showers and storm continue through today, with a northwest to southeast drying trend expected tonight behind a cold front.
LATE DAY AND EARLY EVENING WILL SEE THE HIGHEST COVERAGE AND GREATEST INTENSITY.
The high risk of grass fires in the valley continues, with fire behavior enhanced even with low wind speeds.