Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Dry weather with seasonably average temperatures continue this afternoon, before a progressive trough brings a chance of showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms late tonight through Sunday morning.
(Rest of Today and Tonight) High pressure will remain the dominant weather feature across the region this afternoon, with a mostly sunny sky and dry conditions. Eventually, they will settle in the lower 60s by early Sunday morning.
Temperatures will be unseasonably warm with highs in the upper 80s to the lower 90s. However, model soundings are still quite dry in the low-levels. West of I-165 corridor and points west, highs look to top out in the upper 80s to the lower 90s. Omega type pattern aloft, characterized by troughs on the coasts and a ridge across the central US will hold sway as a Rex type block develops over the eastern US.
(This evening through Sunday) Stable conditions should remain through the weekend, as the region remains sandwiched between the ridge to the west, and a trough to the east. Afternoon highs tomorrow will range in the upper-80s to low-90s, with lows the next two nights ranging in the low to mid-60s.
Meanwhile, the upper level trough axis is still nosed over the Yucatan Peninsula displacing upper level support for convective development out towards the Bahamas rather than encompassing our waters. TBW's 12z sounding is is quite dry this morning above the surface with northerly winds advecting more dry air near the lower levels and pushing it down the coastline. Will keep PoPs where they are with the high end of guidance as there are certainly enough ingredients around for wet season to do its thing before drier air fully seeps in. Weak undulations of this feature, interacting with high pressure to its immediate north, will result in a low confidence forecast for winds and rain chances.
208 PM EDT Sat Sep 13 2025 An upper level trough will swing through the eastern Great Lakes today. Flow off the lake will keep temperatures a couple degrees cooler while inland areas trend up a couple degrees into the low to mid 80s with mostly sunny skies. An omega block pattern will be in place through the short term with an upper level ridge extending north across the Central Great Lakes into Canada.
Cooler temperatures, lighter winds, and mostly dry conditions are expected today and tomorrow. The fairly strong September trough that has been centered over CA-NV the past few days is finally propagating across northern AZ. The passing trough is also bringing lighter winds and seasonably cool temperatures. These conditions will allow for efficient radiative cooling overnight, and some high elevation sites will see low temperatures in the 30s and even locally below freezing.
138 PM PDT Sat Sep 13 2025 Updated at 136 PM PDT Sat Sep 13 2025 * An upper trough will be pushing east today and out of the region This will result in light showers in northeastern Elko county. For today, the upper level trough over the forecast area will shift east.
A swath of mid-level warm air advection on the northeast side of this low has supported showers and thunderstorms across south central and southeast North Dakota early this afternoon, with additional weak convection across the northwest. As the upper trough base tilts further into the central CONUS, a more pronounced wave with an attendant closed low ejects north early Sunday morning. Expect widely scattered showers and thunderstorms through the day and night Sunday, with the highest chances across central North Dakota.
Upper troughing generally prevails across the eastern CONUS with our area remaining on the backside of this feature. Afternoon highs each afternoon top out in the lower 90's for most locations each day, with overnight lows cooling into the lower to middle 60's.
201 PM EDT Sat Sep 13 2025 - Mostly Dry Pattern Continues - Mostly Dry Pattern Continues Area of showers and thunderstorms across Wisconsin will be moving southeast this morning and gradually dissipating as the low level jet weakens.
Loyd of scattered showers over the higher terrain early this afternoon. Tomorrow, except of some very isolated showers, tomorrow is going to be a mostly sunny and a bit cooler day over the region.
1155 AM CDT Sat Sep 13 2025 - Hotter today with highs reaching the lower 90s this afternoon.
Meanwhile, the upper level trough axis is still nosed over the Yucatan Peninsula displacing upper level support for convective development out towards the Bahamas rather than encompassing our waters. TBW's 12z sounding is is quite dry this morning above the surface with northerly winds advecting more dry air near the lower levels and pushing it down the coastline. Will keep PoPs where they are with the high end of guidance as there are certainly enough ingredients around for wet season to do its thing before drier air fully seeps in. While the upper-level trough will slowly lift northeastward, global ensemble numerical weather prediction (NWP) mean products suggest the surface boundary will continue to flirt with the Keys through the work week.
(Rest of today through Sunday) Yeah, it might be a little warmer than many want for this time of the year, but honestly, with dew points in a very manageable range, it's pretty darn comfortable out there. Afternoon highs will climb into the low 90s again (cooler on the Plateau) with a bunch of sunshine to boot. Even if you don't get rain, additional cloud cover should stymie any overnight fog and potentially blanket areas along and north of I-40, keeping things a little warmer than they would otherwise get.
(Tonight) Under high pressure subsidence has aided in keeping skies mostly clear allowing temps to rise into the mid to high 80s. The lower dew points will provide a little bit of uncertainty regarding overnight lows and fog formation. If temps cool to the high 50s, patchy fog will again be possible with best chances in valleys and along water ways.
143 PM EDT Sat Sep 13 2025 A cold front will approach from the northwest tonight and will bring slight chances for showers Sunday.
Rain chances return Sunday with highs in the lower to mid 70s. We then return to dry weather and temperatures near or just warmer than average through mid week. * More clouds High pressure shifts offshore overnight, allowing a light south to southwest wind to develop. Drier conditions should return Sunday night as another high pressure over eastern Canada sends less humid air our way.
201 PM EDT Sat Sep 13 2025 A cold front will approach tonight and cross the area Sunday.
Otherwise, upper ridging overhead will lead to a quieter day weather-wise, despite anomalously high moisture levels observed, with only isolated thunderstorm activity confined to the central Idaho mountains. Clouds increase from the west later tonight ahead of an approaching offshore upper- level trough. A trough and cold front will bring scattered showers and thunderstorms to the area in the afternoon and evening. Surface winds SE-SW 5-15 kt in the morning, becoming W-NW 10-20 kt in the afternoon and evening behind the cold front.
1152 AM CDT Sat Sep 13 2025 (Rest of Today and Tonight) High pressure will remain the dominant weather feature across the region this afternoon, with a mostly sunny sky and dry conditions. Eventually, they will settle in the lower 60s by early Sunday morning.
(Through tonight ) High pressure remains in place across the area today. Temperatures will again rise to well above normal readings, generally in the low to mid 90s. (Tomorrow through Saturday) High pressure shifts eastward Sunday in response to a glancing blow from an upper level low.
SE Michigan resides at the inflection point of low pressure near Hudson Bay and high pressure building over the Plains. The influence of the trough was noted in the 12z KDTX RAOB as a 500mb height of 583 dam was sampled at KDTX and 580 dam at KAPX.
But already, the high looks a tad less stout on water vapor imagery and RAP analysis than yesterday. That being said, the high is still expected to be strong enough to keep any afternoon showers and storms isolated. Ridging weakens tomorrow while PWAT values creep upwards. Towards week's end, a deeper long wave trough may dig over the Midwest and E CONUS, lower heights and steering a few vort maxes in our direction.
Better instability arrives for Sunday with cooler temperatures aloft, but the lower levels will remain quite dry.
S as the large high pressure ridge continues to build down the eastern seaboard.
Afternoon highs will peak into the low to mid 90s across our area.
An upper level ridge axis will build over the Midwest and Great Lakes regions, allowing for warmer temperatures and persistent dry conditions.
Satellite imagery reveals an upper-level ridge of high pressure over the Pacific Northwest. Meanwhile, broad troughing, with multiple embedded waves, is present downstream. Upstream, another broad trough is located just offshore, and a well-defined cold front is also visible over the ocean.
A subtropical ridge shifting westward will funnel in drier air aloft, reducing Sunday's PoPs to low (<30%). Early in the week, coastal troughing to our south sets up.
Upper pattern remains pretty locked in with high pressure dominating the central part of the CONUS and a long wave trough across the eastern states. This will keep things quiet as far as the local weather is concerned, with near normal morning lows, warmer than normal afternoon highs, and no real rain chances worth mentioning. When water reaches this level at the Port Fourchon gauge, it typically begins to creep onto some of the lowest lying sections of the highway.
306 PM EDT Sat Sep 13 2025 * Mid-to-upper level trough will bring the outside chance of a shower across northern Pennsylvania this afternoon/evening.
Area of high pressure briefly disrupted by a trough passing over the region this morning. This wave is set to drop southeast over far southern Lake Michigan due to the presence of an essentially stalled warm frontal boundary near the Mississippi river valley. While rain chances are lack luster, abundant accompanying cloud cover keeps high temps a few degrees cooler than yesterday, instead topping out in the upper 70s. Deepening troughing over the western CONUS leads to a downstream amplification of ridging across the central CONUS to close out the weekend.
This is primarily driven by southerly flow and warm air advection in the lower levels of the atmosphere east of a developing trough over the eastern Rockies, with efficient mixing during daylight hours promoting warmer temperatures to the surface. This lobe of warm air advection will also result in forcing for vertical ascent with chances for sporadic showers and thunderstorms, favoring western Minnesota closer to the incoming trough.
145 PM EDT Sat Sep 13 2025 Weak ridging is building in at the surface from the north with the remnant boundary in place across the FL Straits. A trough remains across the state aloft. Drier air with the high pressure and upper trough remains across the region through mid-week with similar conditions in place each day. highs in the upper 80s to near 90, lows mid to upper 60s north to the lower to mid 70s central and south, lower rain chances with the best chances inland and south, and N/NE winds. Rain chances remain low with drier air lingering through mid-week with ridging in place across the waters.
- Scattered rain and a few thunderstorms are possible on Sunday (west) with a marginal risk of severe hail/wind late Sunday (northwest) (Rest of today and tonight) Southwest flow ahead of a broad upper trough, currently spinning over southern Utah, will continue to feed Pacific moisture and increasing mid-/high- level clouds across the FA area. This trough will reach the central Rockies late tonight. As the trough moves towards the central Rockies, mid-level moisture advection could reach and destabilize a small portion of northwest Oklahoma by evening.
749 PM EDT Sat Sep 13 2025 * Mid-to-upper level trough will bring the outside chance of a shower across northern Pennsylvania this afternoon/evening.
The Midwest warm front at the surface extends into Lower Mi aloft where it continues to support bands of mid level clouds at forecast issuance, although with an overall decreasing trend in coverage. High pressure is then reinforced from Ontario and Lake Huron during Sunday signaled by light easterly wind picking up slightly from the NE into Sunday evening. SE Michigan resides at the inflection point of low pressure near Hudson Bay and high pressure building over the Plains. The influence of the trough was noted in the 12z KDTX RAOB as a 500mb height of 583 dam was sampled at KDTX and 580 dam at KAPX.
After another active day due to a broad slow moving system, high pressure will briefly return for Sunday. A grazing system will then quickly slide through, bringing cooler weather and a chance of light precipitation to areas in the north.
A potent cold front will move through the area on Sunday morning in eastern OR and southwest ID around midday. Gusty outflow winds up to 50 mph possible in the vicinity of thunderstorms along the cold front. Surface winds: SE 5-15 kt overnight, becoming NW 10-15 kt gusts to 20-25 kt after Sun/17Z with cold front.
637 PM CDT Sat Sep 13 2025 (Tonight) Under high pressure subsidence has aided in keeping skies mostly clear allowing temps to rise into the mid to high 80s. The lower dew points will provide a little bit of uncertainty regarding overnight lows and fog formation. If temps cool to the high 50s, patchy fog will again be possible with best chances in valleys and along water ways.
1019 PM EDT Sat Sep 13 2025 * Mid-to-upper level trough will bring the outside chance of a shower across northern Pennsylvania this afternoon/evening.
After a mostly sunny Saturday with high temperatures from the mid 80s to lower 90s, 9 PM temperatures have cooled into the mid 60s to the lower 70s with light winds. A cool night is expected, with lows falling into the low/mid 60s. Upper level troughing however will be amplifying along the eastern seaboard, as an area of low pressure develops east of the Carolinas. A troughing east and ridging setup just to the west of it, will place the Tennessee Valley in a northerly mid/upper flow. Although precipitation from the east coast should remain well to our east, some of the higher resolution short-term models are hinting at higher terrain showers over the Cumberland Plateau and middle Tennessee moving towards the forecast area.
Weak ridging is building in at the surface from the north with the remnant boundary in place across the FL Straits. A trough remains across the state aloft. Drier air with the high pressure and upper trough remains across the region through mid-week with similar conditions in place each day. highs in the upper 80s to near 90, lows mid to upper 60s north to the lower to mid 70s central and south, lower rain chances with the best chances inland and south, and N/NE winds. Rain chances remain low with drier air lingering through mid-week with ridging in place across the waters.
Updated at 358 PM PDT Sat Sep 13 2025 - Temperatures around or slightly below normal on Sunday - Much warmer temperatures for the first half of the upcoming work week.
Temperatures along the Island Chain are in the upper 70s to lower 80s with dew points in the lower to mid 70s. Also, the wind profile is northwesterly through the lowest 5000 ft AGL which is helping to usher in the drier air to the northwest over the Gulf. Weak undulations of this feature, interacting with high pressure to its immediate north, will result in a low confidence forecast for winds and rain chances.
612 PM CDT Sat Sep 13 2025 (This evening through Sunday) Stable conditions should remain through the weekend, as the region remains sandwiched between the ridge to the west, and a trough to the east. Afternoon highs tomorrow will range in the upper-80s to low-90s, with lows the next two nights ranging in the low to mid-60s.
- Hot and mostly dry conditions are expected through mid-week, with highs in the low to mid 90s.
806 PM EDT Sat Sep 13 2025 A cold front will approach tonight and cross the area Sunday.
(This evening through Sunday) Afternoon water vapor imagery shows an upper level low over southern Arizona. Isolated to scattered showers and storms are possible on Sunday as well, with the highest chances again across western portions of the area.
- Seasonably hot weather will continue this week with afternoon highs in the lower to mid 90s.
A longwave trough centered over the Northeast will exit into Atlantic today, allowing for a ridge to build east across the Great Lakes. As a result, spotty showers associated with the exiting trough will continue this morning across the North Country.
- Temperatures trend around ten degrees cooler in most areas for Monday as a period of rain moves across the region.
1235 AM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025 Despite light onshore east-southeasterly surface winds, slight ridging and increased subsidence aloft is likely to reduce probabilities of showers and thunderstorms to a low (20-30%) chance this afternoon, limited to the Rio Grande Plains (Starr and Zapata counties), where upper level divergence will be slightly more favorable. Meanwhile, weakness between mid-level highs over the eastern Midwest and northern-central Mexico will allow for a trough swinging through the Plains to induce a weak mid-level low over south Texas tonight, fostering coastal troughing along Deep South Texas' coast and increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms, beginning tomorrow, Monday.
Despite light onshore east-southeasterly surface winds, slight ridging and increased subsidence aloft is likely to reduce probabilities of showers and thunderstorms to a low (20-30%) chance this afternoon, limited to the Rio Grande Plains (Starr and Zapata counties), where upper level divergence will be slightly more favorable. Meanwhile, weakness between mid-level highs over the eastern Midwest and northern-central Mexico will allow for a trough swinging through the Plains to induce a weak mid-level low over south Texas tonight, fostering coastal troughing along Deep South Texas' coast and increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms, beginning tomorrow, Monday.
An upper low is moving slowly northward across the Central High Plains and into the Northern Plains. To the east, H5 ridging continues to move slowly to the east, allowing south to southwest flow into the Northern Plains.
A quick moving cold front brings a quick chance for rain and thunderstorms early this morning. A weak cold frontal system has reached the area early this morning, bringing a few showers to Humboldt and Del Norte Counties.
(Today through Monday afternoon) Water vapor imagery currently shows evidence of an upper-level trough extending from western Colorado to southeastern New Mexico and portions of the Texas Panhandle. The axis at the base of the trough is located just over Eddy and Lea Counties in New Mexico. The upper-level trough is expected to begin moving off to our northeast Sunday night/Monday morning, clearing out remaining showers and thunderstorms during this timeframe.
(Tonight through Monday Night) The 00Z balloon launch revealed a very dry atmospheric column in place due to high pressure anchored across east Tennessee. 98", a plume of moisture embedded within the ridge is working its way east at this time, and this will help bring PWAT values back up near 1. By Monday, we will be sandwiched between a meandering upper low over the east coast and large ridging to our west.
104 AM PDT Sun Sep 14 2025 * High pressure building over the southwest will allow for dry weather and a warming trend through the middle of the upcoming week.
145 AM EDT Sun Sep 14 2025 Dry and warm weather is expected through much of the week under high pressure. KEY MESSAGES: - Dry and warm today --------------------------------------------------------------- Early morning cloud cover will continue to clear from north to south as a weak upper level trough completes its passage across the Upper Ohio Valley region. 500 mb heights will also rise through the day as a strong ridge across the central CONUS begins to drift eastward.
- 10-20% chance of showers this afternoon, with the highest potential along and west of Hwy 75 where isolated thunderstorms are also possible.
A cool night is expected, with lows falling into the low/mid 60s. Upper level troughing however will be amplifying along the eastern seaboard, as an area of low pressure develops east of the Carolinas. A troughing east and ridging setup just to the west of it, will place the Tennessee Valley in a northerly mid/upper flow. Although precipitation from the east coast should remain well to our east, some of the higher resolution short-term models are hinting at higher terrain showers over the Cumberland Plateau and middle Tennessee moving towards the forecast area.
A slight zonal gradient in upper heights supports relatively "cooler" daytime temperatures along/east of the Flint River Valley (upper 80s) and closer to 90 degrees for locations westward under mostly sunny skies. Overnight lows dip into the low 60s away from the immediate coast.
319 AM EDT Sun Sep 14 2025 An upper-level trough/cutoff low extends southward over the southeastern U.
Today is dry for most, but some isolated showers are expected in the afternoon and evening with highs in the lower to mid 70s. We then return to dry weather and temperatures near or just warmer than average through mid week.
Ridge axis builds overhead today into Monday as northerly flow sweeps by to our east. with Hudson Bay high pressure gaining control of our weather. Not impossible a rogue shower could develop in the afternoon with subtle backdoor cold front dropping through/stalling out in combination with lake breeze development. and drying influences may not have enough of a hold yet to scour out all the moisture in the lower levels. East flow downsloping plus subsidence aloft with the ridge overhead suggests temps will rise into the 80s today, particularly across NW Lower, where a few of the hot spots could creep up toward 85F in the afternoon.
205 AM EDT Sun Sep 14 2025 High pressure centered to our north will extend down through the Mid Atlantic and the Carolinas through Monday, although a weak upper level low settling over the Carolinas will bring periods of clouds each day. and highs in the lower 80s and lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s. The persistent upper trough aligned along the SE Coast will move very little, with central NC on the more favorable drier west side of the axis.
132 AM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025 - Hot and mostly dry conditions are expected through mid-week, with highs in the low to mid 90s.
Much of west Texas will remain at the south end of a mid-level trough centered over eastern Colorado. Given forecast high temperatures in the low 90s with dewpoints in the mid 60s, there is a low chance for showers and thunderstorms over our western counties this afternoon. The aforementioned trough axis is expected to lift northeastward throughout the day today which could provide some dynamic support for any storms that develop So far, high-res models indicate storms will develop over the Permian Basin and move into our western counties late this afternoon and evening before dissipating after sunset.
As the low progresses away from our region, moisture advection is cut off but forcing for ascent should continue to linger through the week.
A mid-level trough over Utah will slide east Sunday, and with weak southwest flow aloft over the Rio Grande Plains, some afternoon showers and storms may develop in the mid to late afternoon hours, but hi-res guidance is not particularly high on coverage today, but any rain is appreciated over the drier sections of the Rio Grande Plains. Temperatures will remain near or above seasonal normals, with afternoon highs in the lower to middle 90s. Late Sunday night into earl Monday, mid-level ridging will start to work into the region, drying things back out and resulting in afternoon highs again in the mid 90s.
S as the large high pressure ridge continues to build down the eastern seaboard. This front does disrupt the continuity of the high pressure ridge, but the ridge begins to build back down the east coast and into the state Sun night/Mon. Afternoon highs will peak in the mid 80s with morning lows in the lower to mid 60s.