Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
733 PM CDT Fri Apr 4 2025 (This evening through Saturday night) We continue to be squeezed between a dome of high pressure off the Florida Atlantic coast and low pressure over the desert southwest. The clockwise circulation around the high and the counterclockwise rotation around the low have been actively drawing the warm, moist air from the Gulf and pushing it up into the midwest.
659 PM CDT Fri Apr 4 2025 - Ongoing light showers will get pushed out of here by a cold front this evening.
Lows tonight remain quite warm ahead of Saturday storms, only falling a few degrees further into the low/mid 70s F by dawn. The western trough to ridge pattern across the country continues a strong 500mb ridge extending from the southwestern Atlantic into portions of the lower Mississippi Valley continues to dominate our coverage area.
444 PM CDT Fri Apr 4 2025 - Ongoing light showers will get pushed out of here by a cold front this evening.
624 PM CDT Fri Apr 4 2025 Latest surface analysis indicates a warm front from just south of Fort Smith,. KLZK radar indicates developing convection across the western two thirds of the forecast area, with the stronger activity located north of the warm front. All hazards are possible near and to the south of the warm front through the evening hours. By late Saturday, a cold front will move eastward through the forecast area, and will bring the heavy rainfall ahead of it and east of the state.
255 PM PDT Fri Apr 4 2025 High pressure builds over the region delivering a warming and drying trend Friday into the weekend.
346 PM PDT Fri Apr 4 2025 High pressure builds over the region delivering a warming and drying trend Friday into the weekend.
Strong low pressure moving into the Mid Mississippi Valley continues to produce a large area of strong/severe convection stretching from Indiana thru SE Missouri into Arkansas. Also still expect precip type should be just plain rain as surface temps hold above freezing. With aforementioned high pressure overhead, sunny skies and weak/calm winds have been observed through most of the day. Temperatures tonight will dip into the low to mid 30s, then rebound into the 40s/50s for Saturday.
Deep layered ridging remains firmly in control of our area with the upper axis aligned across Florida and the southeastern Gulf.
553 PM CDT Fri Apr 4 2025 - Areas of spotty, light rain will gradually transition to rain/snow mix to all snow behind a cold front this evening. TODAY: This afternoon we will see light, spotty rain showers slowly transition to a rain/snow mix to all snow behind a cold front that will pass through the area.
1138 PM CDT Fri Apr 4 2025 (This evening through Saturday night) We continue to be squeezed between a dome of high pressure off the Florida Atlantic coast and low pressure over the desert southwest. The clockwise circulation around the high and the counterclockwise rotation around the low have been actively drawing the warm, moist air from the Gulf and pushing it up into the midwest.
All modes of severe will be in play but damaging winds/large hail look like the highest probability severe hazards.
1232 AM CDT Sat Apr 5 2025 Latest surface analysis indicates a warm front from just south of Fort Smith,. KLZK radar indicates developing convection across the western two thirds of the forecast area, with the stronger activity located north of the warm front. All hazards are possible near and to the south of the warm front through the evening hours. By late Saturday, a cold front will move eastward through the forecast area, and will bring the heavy rainfall ahead of it and east of the state.
This may result in some very light wintry precip Sun morning in the higher terrain before the precip exits. Temps will drop to near or just below freezing by Mon morning. Temps will remain cooler as well.
A quiet weather weekend is in store for the Silver State under high pressure and warming temperatures making it feel a little more like spring across the area.
Troughing remains strong over the Hudson Bay, with weak ridging in the southeastern CONUS as well as the western CONUS.
Deep upper low over the swrn US will finally kick out late day into west TX and then opens/accelerates newd through the OH valley. Some additional light rain likely se half this aftn and perhaps again late day Sun far se as decaying mid lvl deformation zone shifts through downstate IN yet largely drying elsewhere as chilly plains based ridge builds in across the lakes. Chill will persist through Tue timed with general flow amplification aloft across ern NOAM before moderating thereafter as se Canada upper low shifts out.
Fresh to strong breezes should finally slacken late tonight into tomorrow morning as ridging over the western North Atlantic shifts east. This will result in a trough building across the East Coast and winds decreasing and shifting to more of a southeast to south direction.
A series of low pressure centers and stationary frontal boundary stretches from Illinois southwestward to central Texas.
Strong high pressure centered over the NW Atlantic, west of Bermuda has so far helped keep a frontal boundary and passing storms for the most part west of this region. On a larger scale, an upper level blocking feature that was over the NE Pacific basin for a good portion of the mid/latter week will begin breaking down.
1239 AM CDT Sat Apr 5 2025 - Ongoing light showers will get pushed out of here by a cold front this evening.
257 AM MDT Sat Apr 5 2025 - Lingering snow showers this afternoon across the high country with little impact.
Looking at clear skies over the area tonight as an upper ridge builds in from the coast. This warming trend will continue into the weekend as the ridge moves overhead.
Dry conditions into Saturday with upper ridging across the Pacific Northwest. High pressure will build into the region through the remainder of the week, allowing conditions to dry out and warm up. Wet and cooler conditions are on track to return towards the end of the weekend and continue through mid-week as troughing settles into the Pacific Northwest.
203 AM MDT Sat Apr 5 2025 - Dry and mild this weekend with warmer temperatures.
TODAY: This afternoon we will see light, spotty rain showers slowly transition to a rain/snow mix to all snow behind a cold front that will pass through the area.
1234 AM MST Sat Apr 5 2025 Gradual warming and drying conditions are expected this weekend as the slow moving low pressure system exits the region.
We will hold onto the current winter weather products we have issued, as we are still under a favorable track of the upper level low.
Discussion: Currently early this morning, a closed low is centered just east of the southern Rockies with a strong 140 to 160 kt jet extending from the Great Plains to the upper Great Lakes. Strong ridging will remain across the region today but will recede slightly as the trough slowly advances eastward. With this setup, record high temperatures will be possible but harder to achieve as these values are what needs to be met: Date Chattanooga Knoxville Tri-Cities Oak Ridge 04-05 89(2023) 89(2023) 86(2023) 88(2023) Tonight, the upper-level trough and surface front will finally start to advance towards the region, bringing widespread storms.
Either way, it will be around 7-10 degrees above normal as strong ridging aloft continues to dominate in the western Atlantic. A series of low pressure centers and stationary frontal boundary stretches from Illinois southwestward to central Texas. By late Sunday evening, the high pressure shifts east of Bermuda while a cold front approaches the area from the west.
- Much cooler weather arrives today, with rain possibly changing to snow late tonight into Sunday morning north of Interstate 40.
457 AM PDT Sat Apr 5 2025 High pressure will deliver warmer temperatures over the weekend with highs in the 60s Saturday and mid 60s to low 70s on Sunday.
538 AM MDT Sat Apr 5 2025 - Dry and mild this weekend with warmer temperatures.
High pressure has built in over the area, promoting light winds, dry weather, and warmer temperatures. High pressure has strengthened the marine layer, bringing areas of stratus to the coastal areas. Breezy southerly winds of 20-30 mph are forecast ahead of the front, with locally higher gusts possible on exposed ridges and coastal headlands.
High pressure will build over the region this weekend, resulting in dry conditions with a warming trend.
(Today and tonight) A deep upper trough moving slowly southeastward will bring an influx of Pacific moisture out ahead of it which will overspread our entire region today. Areas in heavier precipitation may transition faster with the resultant surrounding cooler air. Based on current observations in the Panhandle, snow is also expected to begin falling while temperatures remain slightly above freezing. Moreover, surface temperatures remaining near freezing will also inhibit significant dendritic growth. However PVA downstream of the trough axis will yield decent omegas/forcing.
544 AM MDT Sat Apr 5 2025 - Lingering snow showers this afternoon across the high country with little impact.
The high cirrus is expected to thicken up some during the day, but probably not enough for the sun to get blocked out, therefore the perception is it will be sunny to mostly sunny through the day. It will be dry today through this evening with warmer afternoon temperatures. Forecast highs will be in the low to mid 70s for the interior westside valleys, and low to mid 60s east of the Cascades. An upper trough and front will approach the area late tonight.
617 AM CDT Sat Apr 5 2025 - Dry weekend on tap with cooler, blustery conditions today and then milder on Sunday.
A deepening upper trough over the southern Plains will shift eastward into the Ozarks/Mid-Mississippi Valley, finally sending a stalled front eastward into the Tennessee Valley overnight.
222 AM PDT Sat Apr 5 2025 High pressure will deliver warmer temperatures over the weekend with highs in the 60s Saturday and mid 60s to low 70s on Sunday.
Offshore marine observation platforms along the Reef tract currently detect fresh to strong east to southeast breezes, with the highest winds observed just southwest the Lower Keys at Sand Key. From synopsis, a pronounced high pressure system over the North Atlantic continues to sustain fresh to strong east to southeasterly breezes across the Florida Keys waters. Breezes will begin to slacken Sunday morning as a low pressure system deepens over the eastern United States.
A cold front continued to slowly push through the area this morning, bringing some cooler temperatures, lower clouds and perhaps some light mist to the area. With temperatures near freezing at the surface and cooler aloft, some light snow may mix in with rain.
- Warmer and drier conditions beginning Sunday, with increasing fire danger beginning midweek. Satellite shows moist air moving in from the south at the upper levels, evidence of flow just ahead of the upper low moving along. The upper low will continue shifting south and east today, taking most of the precipitation with it. Though clouds slowly decrease through the day, lingering cloud cover will help keep temperatures down, with today's highs expected to be in the 30s to high-40s over most of the plains and valleys, and cooler still over the mountains. Some gusty north winds will linger over the eastern plains as well, though with the low shifting away gusts should decrease elsewhere.
756 AM EDT Sat Apr 5 2025 A series of low pressure centers and stationary frontal boundary stretches from Illinois southwestward to central Texas. By late Sunday evening, the high pressure shifts east of Bermuda while a cold front approaches the area from the west.
- Much cooler weather is moving in, with rain possibly changing to snow late tonight into Sunday morning north of Interstate 40.
At the surface, a cold front spans from southern Texas toward Lake Eerie while stout northerly winds persist over the forecast area. Overnight lows through Sunday morning will dip into the middle 20s in central Kansas and range from the low to middle 30s across south central and southeast Kansas.
913 AM PDT Sat Apr 5 2025 Mostly clear skies and warmer through Sunday.
1018 AM PDT Sat Apr 5 2025 High pressure will deliver warmer temperatures over the weekend with highs in the 60s Saturday and mid 60s to low 70s on Sunday.
However, the low pressure is forecast to broaden over the Plains with higher pressure developing along the Front Range.
1106 AM MDT Sat Apr 5 2025 - Dry and mild this weekend with warmer temperatures.
- A much colder air mass arrives behind a cold frontal passage Sunday and lingers until mid-week.
The main cold front was draped across the northwest cwa. All modes of severe will be in play but damaging winds/large hail look like the highest probability severe hazards.
Surface temperatures will remain near or just above freezing tonight into Sunday morning and ground temperatures remain very warm. This band could produce higher snowfall rates and lead to light snow accumulations on bridges initially.
224 PM MDT Sat Apr 5 2025 - Isolated snow showers through early evening across the high country with little impact.
A longwave trough centered near El Paso will continue to slowly move east, with the main result being some mid-level lift over the Rio Grande Plains and Edwards Plateau this evening. High pressure will continue to build in and the longwave trough axis will move east, resulting in clearing skies and light winds Sunday night. Strong radiational cooling will allow overnight lows to range from the lower 30s north to near 40 south.
- Isolated snow showers this afternoon across the high country with little impact.
(This evening through Sunday Night) Cold front is currently bisecting the region, roughly extending along a line from near Farmerville to Coushatta, LA southwestward to near Lufkin, TX. With the delayed ejection of the upper-level trough and additional rainfall expected this evening and overnight across areas in the Flood Watch, opted not to trim back any of the Watch at this time. Otherwise, expect more of it to be trimmed back over the next few hours with additional slow SE progression of the cold front. As the upper-trough continues to slowly eject eastward overnight into early Sunday, look for additional light rain to be possible with low wrap-around cloud cover. Otherwise, the main theme for Sunday will be the much cooler temperatures filtering in behind the cold front with breezy NW winds making it feel even colder.
Temperatures remain around freezing within the snowpack this early afternoon, but some rise in temperatures will occur this afternoon. Troughing remains strong over the Hudson Bay, with weak ridging in the southeastern CONUS as well as the western CONUS.
This low was focusing a robust conveyor of moist 30 knot easterlies in the 295-300K layer which is helping sustain a thicker DGZ growth zone relative to areas farther northwest where snowfall rates have been markedly lower. Surface ridging tomorrow will make for lighter winds and despite mostly sunny skies, we still expect highs to struggle to get out of the lower 50s given such saturated soils and lingering snow cover in places.
Upper low was located over New Mexico was progressing slowly east. Cold cloud tops associated with the low were gradually warming, and radar echo areas was slowing decreasing in coverage(with most of the activity over the greater southern mtn region). Upper low will continue to slowly push east and clouds will continue to slowly decrease over the region.
Breezy northerly winds will decrease throughout the afternoon and evening as ridging pushes into the region. This ridge will result in warmer temperatures and lighter winds by Sunday.
(Tonight through Sunday night) Key Messages: - Much cooler tonight through Sunday night Much cooler temperatures with lows in the 40s and highs struggling to reach 70 degrees, are expected tonight through Sunday night behind today's cold front.
Weather will remain relatively quiet for the time period as large scale ridging sets in over our area. Precipitation type may be an issue with this but ground temperatures should remain fairly warm and will only get warmer.
- There are additional chances for showers and and a few thunderstorms this afternoon and evening, along with much cooler temperatures.
Warmer temperatures with clearing skies today, aside from a few high clouds streaming into the region this morning.
1238 PM CDT Sat Apr 5 2025 - Dry weekend on tap with cooler, blustery conditions today and then milder on Sunday.
Temperatures across the Keys have settled in the lower 80s, likely restricted somewhat by the marine layer blown in by windy conditions. By tomorrow, low pressure will start building in along the Eastern Seaboard as the long stationary deep layer trough starts to push towards east CONUS.
- Freezing temperatures can be expected across southeast New Mexico and much of west Texas tonight into early Sunday morning. (This afternoon through Sunday night) WV imagery this afternoon shows the upper trough over far west Texas, pushing the main and final round of precipitation through West Texas and Southeast New Mexico. A cold front is working its way south, and observations indicate precip has changed over to -SHSN in parts of Southeast New Mexico. The cold front arrived w/blustery winds, strong enough for gap winds through KGDP. Hi-res models suggest extending the High Wind Warning through 06Z Sunday. Sunday, skies scatter out as subsidence sets in on the backside of the exiting trough.
- Risk for showers and storms continue today with a cold front. The warm front has pushed north into the I-80 vicinity, with showers becoming more scattered behind it. This will likely remain the case until the cold front approaches later today. If surface dewpoints can rise into the lower 60s or so and enough cloud breaks provide a bit of surface heating, perhaps around 500 J/kg of SBCAPE could develop, which in concert with the shear may be enough for at least isolated severe storms capable of all hazards. KEY MESSAGES: - A cold front on Sunday will finally bring an end to the heavy rainfall threat.
At the same time that lower clouds are eroding from the northwest, convection across the Arkansas Valley associated with a wave of low pressure continues to advect mid/high clouds northeastward toward the Great Lakes. Despite ridging nosing in from the west tonight, clouds really won't depart the southeast/south cwa until late tonight once the Arkansas wave finally moves across the Ohio Valley. However, that will be short lived, because an upper trough is progd to drop south toward the upper Midwest Sunday night.
/NEW/ /Through Sunday Night/ A relatively cool and breezy night is ahead for much of the region, all thanks to yesterday's cold front. This is between 25-30 degrees below normal for this time of the year! The below normal temperatures will persist through Sunday night as most locations stay in the lower to mid 30s.
North winds continue to send cooler/dry air into the region and low temps are expected to fall into the low to mid 20s over northern sections where some better clearing is likely late, to around 30 in the south where more clouds are expected. At the same time that lower clouds are eroding from the northwest, convection across the Arkansas Valley associated with a wave of low pressure continues to advect mid/high clouds northeastward toward the Great Lakes. Despite ridging nosing in from the west tonight, clouds really won't depart the southeast/south cwa until late tonight once the Arkansas wave finally moves across the Ohio Valley. However, that will be short lived, because an upper trough is progd to drop south toward the upper Midwest Sunday night.
Satellite shows more higher cirrus has been moving through the area today as high pressure dominates. The warmest locations will be in west side valleys where highs will reach the mid-/upper 70s (10 to 15 degrees above normal)! There will be a warmup tonight with more temperatures near freezing east of the Cascades and low/mid-40s west.
Robust surface ridging remains aligned off the southeast Atlantic Coast to the Gulf. Winds are trending slowly downwards as the ridge settles ever so slightly east southeastward in response to troughing moving into the eastern United States. Meanwhile, sharp upper level ridging stretches north northeastward across our area and the heart of the mid level ridge centered not far off and just northeast of the Bahamas. High pressure off of the southeast Atlantic Coast will be nudged slightly east southeastward through the overnight period by troughing over the eastern United States.
- Much cooler weather is moving in, with rain expected to mix with or briefly change over to snow late tonight into Sunday morning across northeast OK and far northwest AR.
217 PM PDT Sat Apr 5 2025 High pressure will deliver warmer temperatures over the weekend with highs in the 60s Saturday and mid 60s on Sunday.
658 PM CDT Sat Apr 5 2025 - There are additional chances for showers and and a few thunderstorms this afternoon and evening, along with much cooler temperatures.
Breezy southerly winds of 20-30 mph are forecast ahead of the front, with locally higher gusts possible on exposed ridges and coastal headlands. Weather Pattern Overview: High pressure has built in over the area, promoting light winds, dry weather, and warmer temperatures. Early Sunday, a quick moving cold frontal system enters into the area bringing another round of rain and breezy winds.
Cold front accelerated this morning and moved off the lower Texas around Noon. Cooler and drier air is filtering into Deep South Texas with a colder surge of high pressure arriving tonight.
These storms have formed along to just ahead of an approaching cold front. As the low level jet ramps up overnight, low level shear increases, which could locally increase the tornado threat in storms that can orient themselves in a more north-south line with eastward surges. However, stratiform rain is forecast to continue through the morning and into the afternoon until the leading edge of the upper trough axis finally shifts to the east.
533 PM MDT Sat Apr 5 2025 - Isolated snow showers through early evening across the high country with little impact.
The trough that has been over the CWA for the last few days has finally shifted to our east.
415 PM MST Sat Apr 5 2025 Updated Aviation Gradual warming and drying conditions will continue through the weekend as the slow moving low pressure system exits the region.
508 PM PDT Sat Apr 5 2025 High pressure will deliver warmer temperatures over the weekend with highs in the 60s Saturday and mid 60s on Sunday.
644 PM CDT Sat Apr 5 2025 (Tonight through Sunday night) Key Messages: - Much cooler tonight through Sunday night Much cooler temperatures with lows in the 40s and highs struggling to reach 70 degrees, are expected tonight through Sunday night behind today's cold front.
The pressure gradient remains tight over South Central Texas as an upper level low slowly shifts east of the area through the day today. Clear skies and light wind tonight will allow temperatures to tank again into the low 30s north to mid 30s south.
A ridge of high pressure will sink south across the western Great Lakes this morning, providing dry weather to the region. A quick moving clipper system will bring increasing clouds to the region this afternoon along with a cold front that will track through north-central Wisconsin late this afternoon and the rest of the area this evening.
The Cold front is now well offshore, but lingering elevated moisture overlapping with PVA from an upper level trough currently located over the Texas panhandle allows for rain/storm chances to persist going into the late morning hours.
- Much cooler and drier air will move in behind the front tonight.
This includes a chance of freezing temperatures the coldest night, Monday night, with a Freeze Watch now in effect. While the last of the heavier rain pushes out, it should be noted that we do remain under a wet southwesterly flow aloft still, so lingering showers are anticipated today as the parent low pressure trof responsible moves over the Mississippi River Valley.