Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
651 PM EDT Sun Sep 14 2025 - Unseasonably warm and dry conditions this week - Increased fire weather concerns early in the week Pattern synopsis/forecast: Omega block in the upper levels across the lower CONUS with ridge axis extending north through the Great Lakes with upper level troughing along the east coast and over the intermountain west. But given the overall lack of moisture and warmer mid levels, most (all?) areas will be dry. Ridge axis overhead on Monday.
754 PM EDT Sun Sep 14 2025 Isolated showers are expected this and evening with highs in the lower to mid 70s. Dry weather with temperatures near or just warmer than average through mid week.
- Warmer temperatures are expected Monday with a few isolated PM showers and thunderstorms capable of producing gusty winds.
741 PM EDT Sun Sep 14 2025 High pressure will keep our weather dry through Monday.
Reinforcement of high pressure from northern Ontario/Quebec provided NE wind across Lake Huron and easterly wind off Lake Erie today. This pattern holds in place through at least mid-week as the upper ridge transitions to a rex blocking pattern.
734 PM EDT Sun Sep 14 2025 High pressure over eastern Canada continues to extend into the eastern Great Lakes. High pressure over eastern Ontario and western Quebec will continue to persist southwest into the local area through Monday. This feature in conjunction with a high amplitude ridge will allow for dry weather to continue through Monday night. The forecast will remain status quo with high pressure to the northeast and some return flow into the region.
This will bring in additional few/sct cloud cover and help keep lows a little warmer along and west of I-65, reaching the upper 60s. The rest of the forecast area will be in the lower 60s.
Early 0Z data shows that the decent moisture is really only present in the lowest 3km. Currently, an upper level trough extends over Florida. Another shot of cooler, dry air expected Monday morning with most of the area expecting mid to upper 60s.
604 PM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025 (This afternoon through Monday) Presently, An upper low is positioned over the Jacksonville, FL area while deep-layer ridging is noted over much of the Great Lakes Region while a compact trough was located over Northeast Colorado. There will be potential for a few showers and storms on Monday as the upper low to our east will gradually migrate northeast, remaining generally over the Southeast Atlantic Coast.
802 PM EDT Sun Sep 14 2025 High pressure continues to drive the weather pattern for the next couple of days. Our next chance of rain might be early this week but is dependent on the location and development of an upper level low. Satellite imagery and latest observations show a couple areas of low pressure offshore. With these clouds, lows are expected to be slightly higher than last night, but still cool in the lower 60s. By Monday morning, this cutoff low is forecast to be meandering northeastward along the SC Coastal plain, helping to force a fairly well defined extra-tropical low pressure off shore.
631 PM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025 - Seasonably hot weather will continue this week with afternoon highs in the lower to mid 90s.
429 PM PDT Sun Sep 14 2025 * High pressure building across the Southwest will keep conditions warm and dry through midweek.
High pressure departs and gives way to a quick grazing system and associated cold front to start the week. This will bring cooler temperatures and some light precipitation to N UT and SW WY.
Cold front has moved through the area this evening and the shower and thunderstorm threat is winding down with the loss of daytime heating.
At first, a cloud line over the Lower Keys generated showers during the late afternoon to early evening which waned quickly after sunset. Latest radar detects isolated showers percolating across the Straits of Florida to the south of the Lower Keys, the offshore Gulf waters to the north of the Lower Keys, and the Bayside and Gulfside waters. Temperatures along the Island Chain are in the lower 80s with dew points in the lower to mid 70s. The Keys remain in very weak flow with the closest synoptic feature being a low pressure system developing off the coast of the Carolinas. Weak undulations of this feature, interacting with high pressure to its immediate north, will result in a low confidence forecast for winds and rain chances.
Temperatures across basins west of the Divide may approach or drop below freezing Monday night and Tuesday night. - Shower and thunderstorm chances continue through midweek before ridging brings more stable conditions late week into the weekend. The next trough is moving into western WY as I type this, with showers and thunderstorms on the increase. The midlevel trough stalls around northern WY tonight, leading to continued showers and thunderstorms for northern WY. The trough continues to spin across the state on Tuesday, leading to another round of showers and thunderstorms for most of western and central WY.
The 00Z KNKX sounding shows the marine inversion has lowered quite a bit under the upper level ridging today, down to around 1700 ft MSL. Warming trend will continue tomorrow as upper level ridging begins to nudge in from the southeast, with the greatest warming inland. Highs will be near to a few degrees above normal on Monday, with mid 90s returning for the Inland Empire and high deserts, low 100s across the low deserts, 70s to mid 80s in the mountains, mid 80s to mid 90s for the western valleys, and mid 70s along the coast.
Summertime Warmth through Midweek A blocking weather pattern lingers across the central CONUS through much of the week, resulting in little change in our summertime airmass over the next few days.
Pressure gradients between the low and a weak area of high pressure west of the Appalachians will continue to produce northeast winds in the state. Afternoon highs will top out in the mid to upper 80s, and morning lows will be in the lower 60.
Temperatures will be a few degrees cooler atop the higher elevations along the Cumberland Plateau, and could touch 90 degrees in a few spots of northwest AL.
- An upper level ridge will remain over the region through the first half of this week.
155 AM EDT Mon Sep 15 2025 High pressure continues to linger over the area today, but some slight rain chances return for Tuesday across the northern forecast area. Temperatures may be muted a bit by higher level clouds today but highs are expected to still push into the lower to mid 80s. Key message(s): - Upper level low pressure will bring a slight chance of rain to parts of the area. 25" and lack of true forcing based on our positioning relative to the low. Along the western edge of the cyclonic circulation, northerly flow will wrap lower PWAT's around the upper low for the rest of the forecast area, so rain chances are very low from Columbia south and west.
On Monday the upper-level trough remains over the area. This combined with the surface cold front will cool temperatures down to slightly below seasonal averages on Monday. On Tuesday the upper-level trough remains over North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana.
GAH KEY MESSAGES: 1) Upper trough pattern will keep isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms at times over the region into Tuesday. WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: A broad upper trough pattern in place will keep isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms in the forecast at times through Tuesday. Drier weather overall is expected for the second half of the week with the overall trough having shifted east. That said, some model guidance keeps low pressure in proximity to keep shower chances going in the eastern zones. The trough shifting east should result in drier conditions, but some ensemble spread remains.
GOES-19 Satellite analysis still shows an area of low pressure just offshore of the Carolina coast with a deep trough draped over the region. Even though we are still situated at the base of this trough, the low will gradually push north to northeastward over the next few days, and the front will be allowed to retrograde and make a return to southern Florida.
A ridging pattern will bring scattered to clear skies and dry conditions with RH values in the teens early to mid week. A warming trend will set in this week as modeled 500mb patterns show a ridging pattern upstream. The highest temperatures will be felt Tuesday as 850mb temperatures show the upper- level heights rise across the West Coast.
High temperatures look to remain in the 90s through the period, with low temperatures in the low to mid 70s.
- Warmer and dry for Monday. Satellite imagery showing the upper level low over Nebraska. The low will continue to lift northward, taking the showers and storms over northeast Colorado with it. Weak ridging moves across the region Monday leading to warmer and drier conditions. High temperatures are expected to reach the lower to mid 80s across northeast Colorado. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to form over Wyoming ahead of an upper level low approaching Colorado from the north. A cold front pushes south through the area Monday night as the upper level low slowly moves south into Wyoming Monday night.
- Isolated to scattered storms are possible over the higher terrain on Tuesday as a disturbance crosses the north. While the western slope will be under a drier westerly flow, a low pressure trough will move inland today across the Pacific Northwest and track through the Intermountain West on Monday. On Tuesday a closed low pressure approaches the area from Wyoming.
High magnitude upper level high pressure system centered squarely over the great lakes during the early week period. This exists atop a sprawling surface anticyclone anchored across western Quebec that maintains a light east/northeast low level flow.
128 AM EDT Mon Sep 15 2025 Isolated showers are expected this and evening with highs in the lower to mid 70s. Dry weather with temperatures near or just warmer than average through mid week.
309 AM EDT Mon Sep 15 2025 High pressure will keep our weather dry through today.
(Today through Tuesday) The mid to upper level closed low will continue spinning off to our east over the Carolina coastlines through the day today. Some of the CAMs are showing a chance for some orographic lift causing isolated showers or a storm across the higher elevations of the eastern and northeastern counties due to easterly surface flow. Tuesday looks to be almost a carbon copy of today as the closed low continues to spin over the Carolinas.
- High pressure will continue to break down through this week across the Four State Region, allowing for near-normal temperatures by the end of the week. Ridging will continue to break down across the Four State Region through the beginning of this work week with chances of rain increasing by the middle of the week as a result. Aloft, this is also due to the beginning of a synoptic pattern shift where troughing takes hold across more of the Great Plains.
High pressure over the Southwest will result in seasonable temperatures, light winds, and mostly dry conditions through the next few days. Weak ridging remains in place over northern Mexico, keeping cooler temperatures and mainly dry conditions in place across northern Arizona.
High pressure rebuilds Tuesday with a warmer and dry conditions through the work week. Monday: An upper-level low over the Northern Rockies early this morning will gradually shift southeast as a ridge builds into the Pacific Northwest from the west. Wrap around moisture around this low will keep widespread cloud cover across far eastern Washington and the Idaho Panhandle through the afternoon, along with a 30-60% chance of showers across northeast Washington and the central Panhandle and a 50-70% chance over far north Idaho. Farther west, clearing skies and the building ridge will allow highs in central Washington to warm into the mid 70s to low 80s. By Monday night, the ridge will shift into eastern Washington and north Idaho, with skies clearing from west to east.
Will likely see a few isolated showers/thunderstorms across portions of central and eastern Kansas today through Tuesday, especially during the afternoon and early evening hours, as a moist/unstable and uncapped airmass remains in place across the region, and large scale ascent persists ahead of an upper trough digging over the western CONUS.
242 AM EDT Mon Sep 15 2025 Dry weather with temperatures near or just warmer than average through mid week.
Dry weather will continue through the period as high pressure remains the dominate feature.
- 10 to 40% chance of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening, with the highest potential across northwest Arkansas and far eastern Oklahoma.
117 AM PDT Mon Sep 15 2025 * Warmer temperatures and mostly dry conditions are expected through mid-week, then some cooling returns by late week and the upcoming weekend.
- Dry conditions Monday before an approaching cold front brings a return of thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon and evening.
1028 PM PDT Sun Sep 14 2025 * High pressure building across the Southwest will keep conditions warm and dry through midweek.
An overall quiescent pattern is in place across the region with amplified upper ridging across the western Great Lakes region atop a closed upper low in the Southeast (a pseudo-Rex Block pattern).
141 AM EDT Mon Sep 15 2025 High pressure over eastern Canada continues to extend into the eastern Great Lakes. High pressure over eastern Ontario and western Quebec will continue to persist southwest into the local area through Monday. This feature in conjunction with a high amplitude ridge will allow for dry weather to continue through Monday night. The forecast will remain status quo with high pressure to the northeast and some return flow into the region.
A weak upper trough centered just east of our area will continue to aid in keeping upper heights a bit below average locally, but a persistent central US ridge axis will be attempting to nose in from the west. Into the weekend, this low pressure center/trough may be sufficiently strong to allow a weak front to slip into our through the area. Even so, the highest rain chances for any specific 12-hour period from late week into the weekend remains under 30% and most guidance suggests that the areas that do see some showers likely won't see much. ) Look for highs this week to remain in the low/middle 90s F with lows in the upper 60s to near 70 F /86/ (06Z TAFS) VFR conditions prevail with light winds.
Some mainly high clouds will persist over the higher terrain, and could sneak as far northwest as the I-79/US-119 corridor that roughly bisects the CWA this morning. Cloud cover may continue to expand northwest through the day, courtesy of a low pressure disturbance drifting along the North Carolina Coast.
MONDAY: The upper trough pulls northeast early Monday, leaving breezy southerly to southwesterly winds in place through the day.
Low pressure will lift slowly northward from the Outer Banks and VA Tidewater off the Mid Atlantic coast through midweek. 50" within a tight NW- SE gradient across the lower Susq Valley with max amounts along the MD line to the north of Chesapeake Bay.
153 AM EDT Mon Sep 15 2025 Mainly dry and warm weather is expected through the week under high pressure. The upper level analysis shows ridging building across the Midwest into the Great Lakes region, with a low across the SE CONUS. High pressure will maintain dry weather across the region again today.
145 AM EDT Mon Sep 15 2025 Mainly dry and warm weather is expected through the week under high pressure. The upper level analysis shows ridging building across the Midwest into the Great Lakes region, with a low across the SE CONUS. High pressure will maintain dry weather across the region again today.
High pressure keeps abundant sunshine and dry conditions across the region. We'll see a bit more high cloud cover than previous days being on the north side of an upper low centered over the southeast.
Weak high pressure remains over northern Mexico capping most convection across the area though there could be some isolated to widely scattered showers and storms in the Davis and Guadalupe mountains where orographic lift should help with convective development. Highs today range from the 80s to the lower 90s. Tomorrow will be much the same temperature wise with the high in Mexico building north and ending rain chances for our CWA.
widespread heavy rainfall is not expected -Cooler temps will be seen by later this week. Temps may be a deg or two cooler for this Mon afternoon compared to previous days due to better POPs and cloud cover. an upper low over the Great Plains will slowly drift east just north of AR. with some upper waves passing by on the SRN periphery of this low over AR. along with cooler temps. These cooler temps and better rain chances will persist into Sun as flow aloft will be a bit more pronounced from the west/NW at the end of the forecast.
220 AM MDT Mon Sep 15 2025 KEY MESSAGES: 1) Upper trough pattern will keep isolated to scattered thunderstorms at times over the region today into Tuesday. WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: A broad trough with embedded low pressure centers will continue impacting the region through Tuesday.
- A mid-week cold front will bring increased rain chances and near-normal temperatures. Clearing over northwest Oklahoma has heated temperatures into the low 80's and the RAP indicates CAMS suggest MLCAPE remaining within the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range this afternoon. Thompson (Monday through Tuesday night) By tomorrow afternoon, the main upper trough reaches Canada.
High pressure is centered to the south over northern Mexico with a small upper level low off the coast of Baja.
- A cooler and wetter pattern arrives mid-week Dry westerly flow remains in place across the region today, leading to a warm, quiet weather day for southeast Colorado. High temperatures will be in the 70s over the high valleys, with 80s to near-90 over the eastern plains. Tonight will be fairly cool once again, though temperatures within the high valleys should stay warm enough to avoid the need for another frost highlight. An upper-level trough will begin digging into our area on Tuesday. Moisture advection will come along with the increasing flow, giving us chances for scattered showers and thunderstorms, largely over and near the higher terrain. Temperatures will remain largely consistent with today, though cloud cover will quickly increase in the afternoon, ahead of an incoming cold front expected Tuesday evening.
645 AM EDT Mon Sep 15 2025 High pressure continues to linger over the area today, but some slight rain chances return for Tuesday across the northern forecast area. Temperatures may be muted a bit by higher level clouds today but highs are expected to still push into the lower to mid 80s. Key message(s): - Upper level low pressure will bring a slight chance of rain to parts of the area. 25" and lack of true forcing based on our positioning relative to the low. Along the western edge of the cyclonic circulation, northerly flow will wrap lower PWAT's around the upper low for the rest of the forecast area, so rain chances are very low from Columbia south and west.
623 AM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025 - An upper level ridge will remain over the region through the first half of this week.
- Seasonable temperatures are expected this week, with the first half being warmer than the second half. Bands of rain continue along the associated 700 mb trough axis early this morning from northwest to south central North Dakota. The upstream low approaching the Northern Rockies is forecast to initiate convection off the higher terrain of southern Montana/ northern Wyoming this afternoon. Models favor this convection sustaining and propagating northeastward into southwest North Dakota late this evening as the upstream low begins broadening out and digging back into the Great Basin, forcing a new trough with positive tilt.
A weak upper trough centered just east of our area will continue to aid in keeping upper heights a bit below average locally, but a persistent central US ridge axis will be attempting to nose in from the west. Into the weekend, this low pressure center/trough may be sufficiently strong to allow a weak front to slip into our through the area. Even so, the highest rain chances for any specific 12-hour period from late week into the weekend remains under 30% and most guidance suggests that the areas that do see some showers likely won't see much. ) Look for highs this week to remain in the low/middle 90s F with lows in the upper 60s to near 70 F /86/ (12Z TAFS) VFR conditions will prevail with light winds.
High pressure still holds across the region maintaining lighter winds and SCT VFR diurnal cu by afternoon. High magnitude upper level high pressure system centered squarely over the great lakes during the early week period. This exists atop a sprawling surface anticyclone anchored across western Quebec that maintains a light east/northeast low level flow.
606 AM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025 (Today through Tuesday) The mid to upper level closed low will continue spinning off to our east over the Carolina coastlines through the day today. Some of the CAMs are showing a chance for some orographic lift causing isolated showers or a storm across the higher elevations of the eastern and northeastern counties due to easterly surface flow. Tuesday looks to be almost a carbon copy of today as the closed low continues to spin over the Carolinas.
A 60 kt upper level jet will round the base of this trough and we will begin feeling the influence of said jet across the north where breezy conditions look to occur at times. Coverage of showers and storms looks more scattered with the higher terrain being favored but some lower valleys across the north and west-central Colorado could see isolated coverage.
A short wave axis will rotate northeastward as the upper low moves north thru the area today. As this short wave trough moves thru the other areas showers and a thunderstorm or two are possible mid morning into early aftn over E ND into west central MN, but timing of short wave with best heating and instability favor far northeast fcst area. 850 mb temps a bit cooler into NE ND but 850 mb temps 20+C remain from E SD into west central MN where 80s are likely.
523 AM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025 - Seasonably hot weather will continue this week with afternoon highs in the lower to mid 90s.
614 AM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025 - 10 to 40% chance of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening, with the highest potential across northwest Arkansas and far eastern Oklahoma.
553 AM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025 - High pressure will continue to break down through this week across the Four State Region, allowing for near-normal temperatures by the end of the week. Ridging will continue to break down across the Four State Region through the beginning of this work week with chances of rain increasing by the middle of the week as a result. Aloft, this is also due to the beginning of a synoptic pattern shift where troughing takes hold across more of the Great Plains.
729 AM EDT Mon Sep 15 2025 Mainly dry and warm weather is expected through the week under high pressure. The upper level analysis shows ridging building across the Midwest into the Great Lakes region, with a low across the SE CONUS. High pressure will maintain dry weather across the region again today.
720 AM EDT Mon Sep 15 2025 Dry weather with temperatures near or just warmer than average through mid week.
743 AM EDT Mon Sep 15 2025 Prevailing high pressure will bring very quiet and dry weather conditions to the North Country this week.
A storm system will graze northern Utah through Tuesday, bringing cooler temperatures and some light precipitation. High pressure brings a drying and warming trend for midweek before moisture increases for the weekend.
519 AM MDT Mon Sep 15 2025 - Warmer and drier today, with only a slight chance of a weak afternoon shower or thunderstorm.
822 AM EDT Mon Sep 15 2025 Dry weather with temperatures near or just warmer than average through mid week.