Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Dry, low-impact weather is forecast to continue across southeast Idaho over the next several days, with high pressure largely in control.
Dry conditions return briefly today, with temperatures in the low to high 70s. The midweek period will continue to be a battle between stable dry low level air feeding in from high pressure to our northeast, and moisture aloft from disturbances embedded within southwesterly mid-to-upper level flow.
200 PM PDT Sun Sep 22 2024 A weak weather system will deliver increasing clouds and warmer overnight low temperatures for tonight.
134 PM MDT Sun Sep 22 2024 KEY MESSAGES: - A few showers possible early to mid Monday morning with weak cold front passage. WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Cold front moving through overnight looks a little stronger than before, with northeastern and eastern zones potentially seeing a few showers from early to mid morning Monday. Temperatures will be at or a couple degrees cooler than today's readings on Monday.
225 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 - Chilly start to the week, but trending warmer for the latter half of the work week. Overview: Early afternoon water vapor satellite imagery, heights, and lightning showed a trough over Quebec with an open wave of 500mb low pressure from Nebraska into Colorado with a ridge over the Gulf States. Tonight through Monday: Through Monday, the 500mb open wave will track toward the Mid- Mississippi River Valley as another mid-tropospheric trough will drop southward from Canada into the Northern Plains. The record low Monday morning is 32 (1974) at La Crosse and 24 (1974) at Rochester, so it definitely can get cold this time of year! The low level flow becomes more easterly and light at the surface. Some hints at fog due to the low dewpoint depressions.
A much cooler and drier airmass has pushed in across the Upper Midwest with rain remaining well southeast across the mid Missouri Valley and Great Lakes.
As of 2 PM CDT, the upper low is sitting over northeast Colorado and is expected to continue ejecting northeastward tonight into tomorrow. The 700mb trough axis associated with the upper low will also move eastward tonight, with increased southwesterly flow this afternoon/evening. The cold front has been nearly stationary the entire morning stretching from a mesolow in the Permian Basin and northeastward across the far southern Rolling Plains.
Overall very quiet conditions with temperatures in the low to mid 60s at midday. A cooler continental airmass migrates near the Canadian Border filtering in cooler dry air as the Northern Plains sits in northwest flow. While some of the cooler dry air will filter over the Northern Plains, 850mb temperatures look to remain near 9 degrees celsius at the coldest over the Northern Plains. Surface Dewpoints look to drop into the low 40's/upper 30's for the majority of the forecast area. To add to the uncertainty most of the models dont have us reaching the 36 degree threshold most likely due to the warmer 850/925 temps and encroaching cloud cover.
(Rest of today through Monday) An upper-level high pressure remains centered to our south, but with plenty of instability and moisture, some storms have already begun developing late this morning. By Monday, the high pressure gets suppressed as a trough digs into the Great Plains. Storm chances increase on Monday ahead of this feature, and with better forcing present from this trough, activity won't be so outflow-dependent as is the case today.
This ridging surface and aloft will contribute to near full insolation leading to warmer than normal afternoon highs again today. /22/ Today and Tonight: Both high pressure aloft and at the surface will remain wedged into the Lower Mississippi River Valley as we round out the weekend.
1156 AM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024 High pressure will build from Eastern Canada through Sunday night while low pressure in the open Atlantic drifts further out to sea.
1056 AM PDT Sun Sep 22 2024 Temperatures will continue to warm this afternoon, with highs in the low 90s inland across the North Bay, East Bay and higher elevations above the marine layer extending south into Monterey County and San Benito County.
(This evening through Monday night) For the next few days, ridging and high pressure will continue to build over the area.
1125 AM MDT Sun Sep 22 2024 - Storm system exiting the area, with rain diminishing on the plains and only a few light snow showers remaining in the high country. - Warmer and drier this upcoming week with no significant precipitation chances. Satellite shows the upper level low shearing out as it head eastward across the northeast plains this morning. This rotated a bit farther north early this morning, but will be collapsing into early afternoon and weakening as the upper low continues to shear out and push east. Scattered showers will continue for these areas until early afternoon as the upper level trough pushes northeast.
High Pressure building in from the Pacific will deliver quiet conditions, light winds, and slowly warming temperatures through the end of the week. Today and Monday High Pressure continues to build in over the state leading to quiet weather to start the week.
Ridging will remain to our north but will drift from the Gulf of Mexico to the Atlantic. The lower PW along with ridging remaining to our north will limit shower acitivty each day with only isolated chances across the area. Ridging will continue to drift into the Atlantic causing what we call a break between it and a trough pushing the midwest.
258 PM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024 (This afternoon through Monday) The Southeast CONUS remains underneath a high pressure regime aloft, with a mid level ridge extending from the northern Gulf of Mexico towards New England. By Monday night, the ridge axis will clear the forecast area to the east, with the mid level flow then shifting to southwesterly. This will be most notably apparent with the temperatures, with highs this afternoon and tomorrow afternoon forecast to rise into the low 90s in north Georgia and mid 90s in central Georgia. Whether it be high or low temperatures, they are expected to be 7-15 degrees warmer than daily normals through the end of the period.
Some locally breezy north to northeast winds this morning south (downwind) of the Mogollon Rim and higher terrain, but overall a much warmer and calm day is in store.
A ridge of high pressure will build over the Northern Rockies to start the week, allowing for warm and dry conditions to prevail.
Look for a continuation of cooler temperatures through tonight and into Monday morning as H5 troughing prevails across the central CONUS.
1249 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 (Today through Monday) 500 mb high pressure centered along the Upper Texas Coast will produce dry weather for the BRO CWFA today through tonight. On Monday, the mid-level ridge will shift more towards the east with a weak 500 mb trough easing into the Lone Star State. Combined with daytime heating and a slight increase in precipitable water, the result will be isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms over the five easternmost counties and the lower Texas coastal waters.
1240 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 Mainly dry and hot conditions will continue today as an upper level high pressure system remains overhead.
High pressure will build over the region this upcoming week. High pressure will be the dominate weather player this week leading to well above normal temperatures.
142 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 - A cold front will bring a 30% chance of light rain over north central SD Monday afternoon, and the rest of the forecast area Monday evening.
238 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 - Frost potential tonight as high pressure settles across the region and clouds decrease. Upper level low pressure is in the process of filling/weakening across southwest Nebraska into northwest Kansas this afternoon. Guidance has trended a little warmer that past couple of runs, and have to get down to around the 10th %tile to see much in the way of frost. Winds will shift to the south on the backside of the high.
1246 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 (Today and tonight) The much anticipated cold front was making steady progress south as of 2 AM along a line from Clovis to Dimmitt to Pampa. The bigger picture depicts an upper low over CO with an attendant trough axis shearing out over the South Plains in SW flow, so deep layer forcing will be hard to come by today. Nevertheless, the cold front will do its best to garner scattered to numerous showers and storms this morning. Otherwise, considerably drier northerly winds will gradually take their toll on the stratus layer resulting in clearing skies across our NW zones where the chilliest lows in the lower 40s are forecast.
The cool front on approach will shallow without much upper level support with the ridge still hanging on over the Gulf coast. The cold front will just not have enough of a push with modifying high pressure content to settle over the southern plains and pinch off of the main core that will head into the OH River Valley.
251 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 - Low temperatures tonight will range from the upper 30s in Valley County to the low 50s in Mitchell County.
1230 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 (Today through Monday) Water vapor imagery this morning reveals a fairly active pattern as the upper level ridge that has been in place is being nudged east by a digging trough across the Four Corners region. At the surface, a cold front can be analyzed across the northern portions of the state. High temps today and tomorrow will settle into the low to mid 90s along with heat indices around 100-105 degrees.
Much cooler temperatures have arrived along with a much drier airmass.
Temperatures are almost universally higher than at this time yesterday, especially in the mountains where some locations are 10-15 degrees warmer.
946 AM MDT Sun Sep 22 2024 - Storm system exiting the area, with rain diminishing on the plains and only a few light snow showers remaining in the high country. - Warmer and drier this upcoming week with no significant precipitation chances. Satellite shows the upper level low shearing out as it head eastward across the northeast plains this morning. This rotated a bit farther north early this morning, but will be collapsing into early afternoon and weakening as the upper low continues to shear out and push east. Scattered showers will continue for these areas until early afternoon as the upper level trough pushes northeast.
East flow brings cooler weather on Monday. Southwest flow aloft today behind an exiting upper low over the Central Plains. A weak backdoor cold front will arrive tonight, with winds shifting to the east at El Paso shortly after sunset and the rest of southern New Mexico early Monday morning. While this doesn't look to be a very strong cold front, gusts up to 40 mph are possible right along the mountain slopes through Monday morning. Monday will be our coolest day of the week, though only a few degrees cooler than today. Modest moisture return with the aforementioned cold front.
123 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 (Rest of today through Monday) An upper-level high pressure remains centered to our south, but with plenty of instability and moisture, some storms have already begun developing late this morning. By Monday, the high pressure gets suppressed as a trough digs into the Great Plains. Storm chances increase on Monday ahead of this feature, and with better forcing present from this trough, activity won't be so outflow-dependent as is the case today.
(Tonight through Monday night) A cold front will sag into the Edwards Plateau and Rio Grande this evening, then Central Texas, the Hill Country, and farther south along the Rio Grande overnight.
A period of dry and warmer weather is in store for the week ahead. In the wake of the departing upper low, some locally breezy northeast winds have developed, along with scattered cumulus clouds over the higher terrain. The weather pattern for the upcoming week features a strong Pacific ridge that builds over the west coast, and then across the interior west through the rest of the week. We expect high temperatures in the low 80s in the mountains with upper 90s to near 100 in the lowest valleys by the middle of the week.
318 PM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024 High pressure building over the SE US will keep warm conditions over the Southeast into the first half of the work week. Confidence is low in the forecast beyond midweek as uncertainty remains high with the evolution of an upper trough moving toward the region and the potential for tropical development in the Gulf. Key Message(s): - Upper ridge persists with above normal temperatures. This afternoon: Hot temperatures persist underneath the upper ridge axis, with highs still on track to reach the low to middle 90s. Key Message(s): - Upper ridge continues to bring above average temps.
1213 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 - Cooler and breezy with widespread (50-75%) showers for the first day of Fall.
Temperatures will fall into the low to mid 70s, with upper 70s possible along the immediate coast south of the Cape that maintain an onshore wind. Ridge and warmer temps aloft should keep limit if not completely suppress any lightning storm development across southern portions of east central FL.
627 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 (This evening through Monday night) For the next few days, ridging and high pressure will continue to build over the area.
628 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 - Low temperatures tonight will range from the upper 30s in Valley County to the low 50s in Mitchell County.
624 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 An approaching cold front will bring scattered showers and thunderstorms to the Midsouth on Monday.
947 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 - A cold front will bring a 30% chance of light rain over north central SD Monday afternoon, and the rest of the forecast area Monday evening.
635 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 - A cold front will bring a 30% chance of light rain over north central SD Monday afternoon, and the rest of the forecast area Monday evening.
759 PM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024 High pressure building over the SE US will keep warm conditions over the Southeast into the first half of the work week. Confidence is low in the forecast beyond midweek as uncertainty remains high with the evolution of an upper trough moving toward the region and the potential for tropical development in the Gulf. Key Message(s): - Upper ridge continues to bring above average temps.
401 PM PDT Sun Sep 22 2024 A weak weather system will deliver increasing clouds and warmer overnight low temperatures for tonight.
First a remnant cloud line streamer came to life for a couple of hours southwest of the Lower Keys. Initial convection that spilled over into our area moved across portions of the Lower Keys and gave up to a quick quarter to a half of inch for mostly Big Pine Key and Bahia Honda. Otherwise, northeast winds early in the period have quickly clocked around to the east and even slightly south of east as high pressure settles in across the Southeast US.
615 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 - Frost potential tonight as high pressure settles across the region and clouds decrease. Upper level low pressure is in the process of filling/weakening across southwest Nebraska into northwest Kansas this afternoon. Guidance has trended a little warmer that past couple of runs, and have to get down to around the 10th %tile to see much in the way of frost. Winds will shift to the south on the backside of the high.
Similar to the previous night, sfc ridging aloft will continue to dominate our forecast through midnight allowing for quiet conditions across our forecast area. /CR/ Tonight through Monday night: Continued warmer than normal through the period as ridging surface and aloft remains dominant but, rain chances return to the northwest Monday evening. Mid afternoon surface analysis had a 1015mb high centered over our CWA with a cold front across the central Plains. Dry weather is expected to continue through Monday but by Monday evening the cold front will bring low chances of light rain across our northwest most zones.
High pressure surface and aloft persists over the area with partly cloudy skies and warm temperatures. Little change expected on Monday as high pressure remains over the area with continued very warm temperatures under partly cloudy skies. Ridging will remain to our north but will drift from the Gulf of Mexico to the Atlantic. The lower PW along with ridging remaining to our north will limit shower activity each day with only isolated chances across the area. Ridging will continue to drift into the Atlantic causing what we call a break between it and a trough pushing the midwest.
(The rest of tonight) True cold front entering NE OK this evening, though at this time most of the precip is associated with an outflow boundary further south. Overnight low temperatures look reasonable as they reflect cooler air infiltrating the region overnight.
941 PM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024 High pressure will build from eastern Canada through tonight while low pressure in the open Atlantic drifts further out to sea.
902 PM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024 High pressure will linger across the region through early week this week. Later this week, a tropical cyclone is forecast to move generally northward across the Gulf of Mexico, then possibly tracking inland across portions of the Deep South or Southeast U. Monday: A large ridge will remain centered over the northern Gulf of Mexico through early this week.
ANS An approaching cold front will bring scattered showers and thunderstorms to the Midsouth on Monday.
630 PM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024 High pressure will build from eastern Canada through tonight while low pressure in the open Atlantic drifts further out to sea.
A strong front and area of low pressure over the Great Lakes and Upper Midwest will approach the area during the early to middle part of the week. High pressure will follow mid to late week. Latest satellite imagery shows abundant cloud cover across the region thanks to easterly flow and a backdoor cold front draped across the region. Some improvement in clouds diminishing is expected west of the Blue Ridge, with areas to the east in large remaining socked in the clouds with the easterly flow. As another trough and area of low pressure/frontal system begin to approach from the OH Valley/Great Lakes by Monday afternoon, expect increasing rain chances from west to east.
622 PM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024 High pressure will linger across the region through early week this week. Later this week, a tropical cyclone is forecast to move generally northward across the Gulf of Mexico, then possibly tracking inland across portions of the Deep South or Southeast U. Overnight, The mid-levels will consist of ridging stretching from southern TX to the east across the Deep South and Southeast U. At the surface, weak High pressure will prevail inland. This should yield low temperatures in the upper 60s for most areas, and the lower 70s near the beaches. A large ridge will remain centered over the northern Gulf of Mexico through early this week.
656 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 (Tonight through Monday night) A cold front will sag into the Edwards Plateau and Rio Grande this evening, then Central Texas, the Hill Country, and farther south along the Rio Grande overnight.
High pressure will build over the region this upcoming week. Temperatures are currently a few degrees warmer than they were at this time yesterday, following the expected warming trend. High pressure will be the dominate weather player this week leading to well above normal temperatures.
Temperatures will steadily warm the next few days reaching into an above normal category as strong high pressure builds over the region. Lingering positively tilted troughing across the SW Conus will give way to high amplitude ridging over the next 48 hours as the entire western hemisphere flow pattern begins to exhibit a blocking regime.
A weak and dry cold front will move through northern Utah tonight into Monday morning. High pressure will build over the area through midweek, resulting in a steady warming trend. Have seen one or two showers develop over the higher terrain of southern Utah, with some cumulus over most of the rest of the mountainous areas and mostly clear skies elsewhere. A Pacific Northwest trough is expected to stay north of the area as it passes by tonight into tomorrow morning. However, the system is expected to push a weak and dry cold front across northern Utah.
"Warmer" temperatures in ND and the RRV of northwest MN due to increasing winds/mixing late. Look for a continuation of cooler temperatures through tonight and into Monday morning as H5 troughing prevails across the central CONUS.
726 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 Tonight through Monday night: Continued warmer than normal through the period as ridging surface and aloft remains dominant but, rain chances return to the northwest Monday evening. Mid afternoon surface analysis had a 1015mb high centered over our CWA with a cold front across the central Plains. Dry weather is expected to continue through Monday but by Monday evening the cold front will bring low chances of light rain across our northwest most zones.
This evening will bring a few high clouds as a dry cold front moves through the region. These clouds, along with light west-northwest winds, may keep temperatures slightly warmer than last night. Looking ahead, the upper-level ridge along the Pacific Northwest coast is forecasted to shift inland on Monday, causing temperatures to rise by 2-4 degrees compared to today.
710 PM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024 (Through Monday) Ridging aloft and at the surface will keep things pretty status-quo through Monday afternoon. Daytime highs climb into the lower to middle 90s Monday afternoon.
235 PM MST Sun Sep 22 2024 Temperatures will steadily warm the next few days reaching into an above normal category as strong high pressure builds over the region. Lingering positively tilted troughing across the SW Conus will give way to high amplitude ridging over the next 48 hours as the entire western hemisphere flow pattern begins to exhibit a blocking regime.
Overnight temperatures remain on track toward minimums in the lower 70s with increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms (north of I-30) ahead of a slow-moving frontal boundary. The cool front on approach will shallow without much upper level support with the ridge still hanging on over the Gulf coast. The cold front will just not have enough of a push with modifying high pressure content to settle over the southern plains and pinch off of the main core that will head into the OH River Valley.
This after high temperatures that rose into the lower 90s.
635 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 - Chilly start to the week, but trending warmer for the latter half of the work week. Overview: Early afternoon water vapor satellite imagery, heights, and lightning showed a trough over Quebec with an open wave of 500mb low pressure from Nebraska into Colorado with a ridge over the Gulf States. Tonight through Monday: Through Monday, the 500mb open wave will track toward the Mid- Mississippi River Valley as another mid-tropospheric trough will drop southward from Canada into the Northern Plains. The record low Monday morning is 32 (1974) at La Crosse and 24 (1974) at Rochester, so it definitely can get cold this time of year! The low level flow becomes more easterly and light at the surface. Some hints at fog due to the low dewpoint depressions.
620 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 (Rest of today through Monday) An upper-level high pressure remains centered to our south, but with plenty of instability and moisture, some storms have already begun developing late this morning. By Monday, the high pressure gets suppressed as a trough digs into the Great Plains. Storm chances increase on Monday ahead of this feature, and with better forcing present from this trough, activity won't be so outflow-dependent as is the case today.