Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Highs on Wednesday may be a few degrees cooler than those seen today, keeping record highs a bit more out of reach Wednesday afternoon.
Another beautiful day will be on tap for Tuesday with increasing cloud cover Tuesday night ahead of an approaching cold front. Thereafter, cooler temperatures and drier weather are expected through the remainder of the week.
Uncertain how much dense fog may form in our western counties due to the low clouds there, but with potential for them to erode went ahead and included them in the advisory as well. Otherwise, a cold front will approach the midstate today from the northwest ahead of an upper trough swinging into the Great Lakes.
1040 PM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024 - Tuesday's cold front will bring breezy conditions and low humidity to the region. Diurnal cu has developed across much of the forecast area, driven by modest low-level moisture streaming off of the low and associated cloud cover over the Ohio River Valley. Despite these conditions, fog is expected to be more limited tonight due to the approaching cold front from the north providing too much mixing across our northern counties, and less near surface moisture from a day of sunshine and no precipitation. The passage of the cold front will be dry thanks to deep dry air across the region. Temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday will be roughly 5-7 degrees cooler than today thanks to cooler 850 mb temperatures behind the front.
* Cold frontal passage this afternoon and evening will bring widely scattered light rain showers to the region, especially east of I- 65. A cold front will pass through the region from west to east mid afternoon through early evening. The front will lack return flow from the Gulf, and onshore flow from the North Atlantic courtesy high pressure over Labrador will stay east of the Appalachians. Ensemble data suggest a 20-30% chance of some spots in southern Indiana dipping into the lower 40s. On Wednesday, high pressure will build into the region leading to clear skies and dry conditions. High temperatures Wednesday are expected to be in the low-mid 70s and lows in the upper 40s and low 50s.
Favored the colder CONSMOS and NBM 25%ile forecast in this scenario, with the typical cool spots like KBVO and KFYV expected to dip down into the low 40s by Wednesday morning.
335 AM CDT Tue Oct 1 2024 - A brief cool down for today with max temperatures in the mid 60s to lower 70s, warming back up again Wednesday into the lower to upper 80s.
A cold front will move across the state Tues, along the leading edge of the High, ushering in a cooler and drier air mass.
(Tuesday through Wednesday) A few showers noted on radar this morning across south Arkansas and portions of north Louisiana are the result of an upper-level trough extending southwest from a low across the Appalachians. The upper-trough that has lingered across the region for the past several days will be replaced by an upper-level ridge extending from the Pacific Ocean through the southwest CONUS into the ArkLaTex on Tuesday. At the surface, high pressure will build from the north bringing a reinforcement of cooler air areawide.
150 AM EDT Tue Oct 1 2024 Precipitation chances continue through Wednesday morning with a departing upper low and cold front.
A cold front will finally push east across the region mid- week, bringing clearing skies and lower humidities. A weak backdoor cold front will slip through NC into northern SC today. There is a chance of showers, mainly in the northeast, closest to the weak low pressure, and where instability will be greatest this afternoon (in the south). The low pressure will slowly move away to the ENE tonight. The weak upper trough and surface wave will slowly pull away from the coast on Wednesday. Weak high pressure will extend into our region from the north. Highs should be a bit warmer than today, reaching the mid 70s north ranging into the lower 80s south.
1229 AM CDT Tue Oct 1 2024 (Tonight through Tuesday night) Generally rain-free conditions and near to slightly above normal temperatures will continue through the short term period as weak mid level ridging builds across Deep South Texas. Despite a seasonably warm day Tuesday afternoon with highs in the low to mid 90s, limited precipitable water values will maintain comfortable conditions with heat indices mostly in the upper 90s.
(Today through Wednesday) Slightly above normal temperatures will continue through the period as weak mid level ridging builds over Deep South Texas. High temperatures today and Wednesday will be in the low to mid 90s. As low level moisture starts to gradually increase tonight, isolated to scattered showers may develop off the Lower Texas coast.
319 AM CDT Tue Oct 1 2024 - Cooler weather today with highs in the upper 60s to low 70s and light winds. noticeably cooler weather is expected today as a high pressure system moves over the area.
336 AM EDT Tue Oct 1 2024 A stalled front will move south as a cold front late today. High pressure builds in to close out the rest of the week. This will likely keep temps a few degrees cooler than the last few days, with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s. Low pressure will continue to push offshore today, allowing the front to push south through all of ENC by this evening. Despite decent shear, instability is forecast to be lower today, which should keep the risk of strong thunderstorms on the low side. Front will push south of the area tonight as cooler and drier air grad filters in with low level N/NNE flow.
High pressure will work into the region for Wednesday allowing for several days of dry conditions.
The forecast seems on track with a cold front moving southeastward across the region this afternoon. The cold front will bring convection through early afternoon with thunderstorms possible along and east of the US 127 corridor. Skies will clear out quickly behind the front with fair and mild weather tonight into tomorrow as high pressure in the mid to low level builds over the region.
317 AM CDT Tue Oct 1 2024 - Cooler/near-normal temperatures today. Yesterday's cold front has reached central Missouri and Illinois this morning, with an expansive area of high pressure settling in behind it across the Central and Northern Plains. This will keep temperatures nearly 20 degrees cooler today than the past several days with highs in the lower to middle 60s which is near or slightly below average for the beginning of October. These cooler temps along with decreasing winds will keep the fire threat lower today than yesterday, but low humidity will still maintain a somewhat elevated threat this afternoon. In a repeat fashion from yesterday, another dry cold front will swing through the area Wednesday afternoon bringing temperatures back closer to average for the remainder of the work week.
A rather sharp cold front was currently plowing through the eastern CWA ATTM, with IR imagery showing an associated fine line of stratocu along it from MO to the MI U. RH vales dipping into the low 30s and 20s combined with the breezy conditions today will make for very high fire danger parameters mainly in cured unharvested crop fields and will message. Northern portion of the ridge axis slides acrs the DVN CWA for a sfc wind drop off and mainly clear skies. Nice diurnal swing with highs making it back into the low to mid 70s by mid afternoon.
259 AM CDT Tue Oct 1 2024 - Sharply cooler today, but the remainder of the forecast is populated by warmer than normal temperatures. Early morning water vapor imagery reveals a lengthy cold front stretching from the Hudson Bay to Amarillo, TX. Behind the cold front here in Nebraska and Iowa, surface winds remain a little breezy out of the NNW, with wind speeds mostly 10-15 mph and the occasional gust up to 20 mph. As high pressure settles in by sunset, those winds will continue to slow and become light and variable overnight. Fire danger climbs again on Wednesday with return flow and sunny skies pushing temperatures into the lower 80s. Pre-cold front southwesterly winds will become breezy - blowing 15-25 mph.
1213 AM EDT Tue Oct 1 2024 High pressure will stay over the region through Tuesday. A cold front pushes through the area Wednesday evening.
321 AM CDT Tue Oct 1 2024 - Windy conditions will develop behind a departing cold front today. - As winds subside, low temperatures tonight will dip into the lower to middle 40s.
Heat index values for SE AL and SW GA should max out in the upper 80s to low 90s, while FL counties top out in the low to mid 90s.
329 AM CDT Tue Oct 1 2024 - Near to sub-freezing temperatures across western North Dakota early this morning.
(Today through Wednesday night) A cold front progresses through the CWA tonight, and based off of its current speeds, the front should pass through the whole CWA before sunrise. NBM values are still coming in warmer than what we are anticipating, given the duration of the northeasterly winds today so NAM12 values were used for today's highs. Wednesday, temperatures will rebound to the 80's and lower 90's due to the progression of the upper trough away from the High Plains and the reintroduction of the upper ridge over the area.
A similar outlook is expected for Wednesday, with highs again reaching the low/mid 90s and lows remaining in the upper 60s/lower 70s.
1226 AM CDT Tue Oct 1 2024 (The rest of tonight) Cold front continues to surge south across Kansas this evening, with expected timing remaining around 06-07z into far northeast OK and to northwest AR by 10-11z.
A cold front over SERN KS early this morning will drop SE towards the state. with drier and cooler air filtering into the state as a result.
Winds will initially shift to the north before daybreak in the wake of this trough. Wind speeds will not increase until closer to sunrise as 5mb/3hr pressure rises work their way in behind the frontal boundary a few hours after the trough.
Lows will be warm and muggy for this time of the year, dropping at most into the low 60s. Regardless, a quickly-approaching cold front looks to help things along by late morning. Increased sunshine compared to previous days should allow temperatures to be a bit warmer, with highs in the mid to upper 70s. Tonight Strong cold air advection behind the front brings in much cooler temperatures tonight.
253 AM CDT Tue Oct 1 2024 - Much cooler today with highs in the 60s to perhaps a few low 70s. A cold front passed through overnight in response to a strong short wave moving across the Northern Plains and Manitoba/Ontario. The cold front is now exiting the far southeast corner of the state.
- Much cooler today with highs in the 60s to perhaps a few low 70s. A cold front passed through overnight in response to a strong short wave moving across the Northern Plains and Manitoba/Ontario. The cold front is now exiting the far southeast corner of the state.
239 AM MST Tue Oct 1 2024 Persistent high pressure will continue to promote mostly dry and abnormally hot conditions over the next several days, with afternoon high temperatures nearing or exceeding record levels. The main talking point with the forecast will be the continuation of unseasonably hot conditions as high pressure continues to encompass the Desert Southwest. The hottest day of the next several looks to be today as temperatures will range between 108 and 113 degrees across the lower deserts, a good 15 degrees or so above normal for this time of year. The high temperature forecast for PHX this afternoon is 113 degrees, so today will likely become the first October day ever with a temperature at or above 110 degrees since records began back in 1896.
545 AM CDT Tue Oct 1 2024 - Sharply cooler today, but the remainder of the forecast is populated by warmer than normal temperatures. Early morning water vapor imagery reveals a lengthy cold front stretching from the Hudson Bay to Amarillo, TX. Behind the cold front here in Nebraska and Iowa, surface winds remain a little breezy out of the NNW, with wind speeds mostly 10-15 mph and the occasional gust up to 20 mph. As high pressure settles in by sunset, those winds will continue to slow and become light and variable overnight. Fire danger climbs again on Wednesday with return flow and sunny skies pushing temperatures into the lower 80s. Pre-cold front southwesterly winds will become breezy - blowing 15-25 mph.
616 AM CDT Tue Oct 1 2024 - Fall-like conditions today behind the cold front.
A backdoor front will continue to spill in from the Great Plains today allowing for breezy winds with speeds generally 15-20MPH scattered about the lowlands of southern NM and far west TX. High pressure generally stays anchored nearby keeping the Borderland very dry with well above average temperatures.
/05/ (Tuesday through Wednesday) A few showers noted on radar this morning across south Arkansas and portions of north Louisiana are the result of an upper-level trough extending southwest from a low across the Appalachians. The upper-trough that has lingered across the region for the past several days will be replaced by an upper-level ridge extending from the Pacific Ocean through the southwest CONUS into the ArkLaTex on Tuesday. At the surface, high pressure will build from the north bringing a reinforcement of cooler air areawide.
* Cold frontal passage this afternoon and evening will bring widely scattered light rain showers to the region, especially east of I- 65. Scattered to isolated showers are expected to move through the area this afternoon into the early overnight hours, along a weak cold front. A cold front will pass through the region from west to east mid afternoon through early evening. The front will lack return flow from the Gulf, and onshore flow from the North Atlantic courtesy high pressure over Labrador will stay east of the Appalachians. Ensemble data suggest a 20-30% chance of some spots in southern Indiana dipping into the lower 40s. On Wednesday, high pressure will build into the region leading to clear skies and dry conditions. High temperatures Wednesday are expected to be in the low-mid 70s and lows in the upper 40s and low 50s.
Weak ridging in the western North Atlantic is stretched across the Florida Peninsula, and is maintaining gentle to light breezes. High pressure straddled across Florida will maintain gentle to moderate breezes across the Florida Keys this afternoon through Wednesday.
641 AM EDT Tue Oct 1 2024 Mild and quiet conditions are in store for today with high pressure over the region. Warmer and sunny weather returns for the second half of the work week. Late this evening, clearing is expected before sky cover increases ahead of an incoming cold front. The aforementioned cold front will move in from the west last tonight. Our area appears likely to spend most of this period between waves, with benign warm weather under high pressure. A front will pretty much dissolve Wednesday evening, with nearly immediate ridging aloft and moisture become pretty shallow underneath with lingering clouds.
An upper-level ridge will keep above normal temperatures and mostly dry conditions around for the foreseeable future. On the flip side, isolated showers will be possible across the higher terrain today and tomorrow. An area of high pressure will continue to dominate the region, bringing record breaking high temperatures for a handful of locations across our CWA. Similar to yesterday, enough mid- level moisture is trapped in this ridge, allowing isolated showers to form throughout the afternoon/early evening.
413 AM CDT Tue Oct 1 2024 - Fall-like conditions today behind the cold front.
The low clouds will break up late this morning and we will see more sun than we have the past several days. This will allow temps to warm into the lower 80s most areas. There is still a lot of low level moisture, and a cold front will push into the area later today. Uncertain how much dense fog may form in our western counties due to the low clouds there, but with potential for them to erode went ahead and included them in the advisory as well. Otherwise, a cold front will approach the midstate today from the northwest ahead of an upper trough swinging into the Great Lakes.
Upper flow becomes zonal into Montana today as the upper low in the Gulf of Alaska gets pulled into the Hudson Bay low.
712 AM CDT Tue Oct 1 2024 An upper low is evident on satellite and resulting in isolated showers this morning. Patchy fog is also possible, but should be limited in the presence of the low.
742 AM EDT Tue Oct 1 2024 Precipitation chances continue through Wednesday morning with a departing upper low and cold front.
We anticipate an approaching cold front overnight to finally clear out the remnant tropical moisture from hurricane Helene as northwesterly flow will become dominant. /KP/ An upper low is evident on satellite and resulting in isolated showers this morning. Patchy fog is also possible, but should be limited in the presence of the low.
533 AM CDT Tue Oct 1 2024 - Windy conditions will develop behind a departing cold front today. - As winds subside, low temperatures tonight will dip into the lower to middle 40s.
(The rest of today) The cold front has made steady progress southward across eastern Oklahoma and northwest/west central Arkansas this morning and is positioned from about McAlester northeastward toward Fayetteville at present.
240 AM MST Tue Oct 1 2024 Persistent high pressure will continue to promote mostly dry and abnormally hot conditions over the next several days, with afternoon high temperatures nearing or exceeding record levels. The main talking point with the forecast will be the continuation of unseasonably hot conditions as high pressure continues to encompass the Desert Southwest. The hottest day of the next several looks to be today as temperatures will range between 108 and 113 degrees across the lower deserts, a good 15 degrees or so above normal for this time of year. The high temperature forecast for PHX this afternoon is 113 degrees, so today will likely become the first October day ever with a temperature at or above 110 degrees since records began back in 1896.
619 AM CDT Tue Oct 1 2024 - A brief cool down for today with max temperatures in the mid 60s to lower 70s, warming back up again Wednesday into the lower to upper 80s.
Ensembles indicate a strong ridging influence over the next several days, although not nearly as strong heading toward the end of the work week as a Pacific Northwest trough helps knock down this influence a bit, but not completely as the trough skirts along the northern border of the United States. Ridging rebuilds and amplifies over the intermountain west, and although ensembles indicate high agreement of positive height anomalies to continue on the coast, the influence will not be as strong as will be experienced over the Intermountain West and Great Basin.
547 AM CDT Tue Oct 1 2024 - Cooler/near-normal temperatures today. Yesterday's cold front has reached central Missouri and Illinois this morning, with an expansive area of high pressure settling in behind it across the Central and Northern Plains. This will keep temperatures nearly 20 degrees cooler today than the past several days with highs in the lower to middle 60s which is near or slightly below average for the beginning of October. These cooler temps along with decreasing winds will keep the fire threat lower today than yesterday, but low humidity will still maintain a somewhat elevated threat this afternoon. In a repeat fashion from yesterday, another dry cold front will swing through the area Wednesday afternoon bringing temperatures back closer to average for the remainder of the work week.
529 AM CDT Tue Oct 1 2024 - Cooler today with highs in the lower to middle 70s. This Morning: An upper-level trough translates across the Plains today with an associated cold front sliding southeast through the region. The lowest humidities will be focused across southeast Kansas into southwest Missouri. Otherwise, a cooler day is expected across the area with highs in the lower to middle 70s and ample sunshine.
602 AM CDT Tue Oct 1 2024 (Today and tonight) High pressure remains in place across west central Texas this morning, while a cold front is draped across the central Plains and the Panhandle. However, the coldest part of the airmass should remain over Kansas and Oklahoma so high temperatures should only be a few degrees cooler today; generally in the upper 80s. Winds should diminish overnight as the atmosphere decouples and high pressure fills in again behind the stalled front. Most locations should see light and variable winds, which should allow low temperatures to fall in to the low to mid 50s under clear skies.
627 AM CDT Tue Oct 1 2024 - Cooler weather today with highs in the upper 60s to low 70s and light winds. noticeably cooler weather is expected today as a high pressure system moves over the area.
Min RHs will be in the low teens for the lower locations and mid 20s for the higher locations.
618 AM CDT Tue Oct 1 2024 (Today through Wednesday) Slightly above normal temperatures will continue through the period as weak mid level ridging builds over Deep South Texas. High temperatures today and Wednesday will be in the low to mid 90s. As low level moisture starts to gradually increase tonight, isolated to scattered showers may develop off the Lower Texas coast.
The TUTT cell has carved a divot into the southwestern flank of the broad mean-layer ridge centered to the northeast of the Bahamas. There is a short wave trough creeping to the east through the Mississippi River Valley. The southern flank of this trough is nearly parallel to a broad SFC baroclinic zone. Dewpoints from the Texas Gulf Coast to Louisiana range from the lower 60s to near 70, while across the Keys and the southeastern Gulf dewpoints are in the upper 70s. Meanwhile, the low-level gradient will diminish as the ridge axis currently across South Florida sags southward into the Florida Keys.
Through Wednesday: Our approaching surface cold front is shifting towards the Mississippi River just west of our region as of 2 AM this morning. However, the main story today will be the plummeting dewpoints and cooler temperatures as the post frontal airmass sweeps into the region on the breezy northwest winds. The cooler airmass moving into the area today will keep afternoon temperatures rather steady in the mid to upper 60s.
A cold front brings additional rain tonight into Wednesday. Regardless, another round of showers expected with the cold front, which will sweep across the area on Wednesday, with much of the area drying out during the day, although some light rain showers or drizzle will linger across the higher terrain a little longer. Generally quiet weather will be represented during this portion of the forecast in between two cold fronts.
/44/ (Tuesday through Wednesday) A few showers noted on radar this morning across south Arkansas and portions of north Louisiana are the result of an upper-level trough extending southwest from a low across the Appalachians. The upper-trough that has lingered across the region for the past several days will be replaced by an upper-level ridge extending from the Pacific Ocean through the southwest CONUS into the ArkLaTex on Tuesday. At the surface, high pressure will build from the north bringing a reinforcement of cooler air areawide.
309 PM EDT Tue Oct 1 2024 A cold front will push through this evening with scattered showers and gusty winds. A dry weather pattern is forecast to return for the remainder of this week as high pressure builds across the country. A cold front over Indiana is making its way to the ILN area. Marginal instability and warmer than ideal mid levels will limit the threat for thunderstorms. Lows will be cooler than in recent nights, with readings falling to the mid 40s west to mid 50s east. High pressure will be positioned over the Ohio Valley through the short term.
101 PM CDT Tue Oct 1 2024 - An isolated shower chance lingers in the east as a cold front completes its passage. - Cooler/drier air comes in behind the front for the mid week, then we warm back into the 80s for the week's end. - Another dry cold front's passage late this weekend will cool us back into the lower 70s again for early next work week. A cold front is making passage.