Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
(Today through Thursday) The subtropical ridge is centered over AL/MS this morning and extends to the west over TX. The upper ridge will continue to dominate keeping the forecast rain free. The low level flow will remain from the southeast keeping warm, moist air in place.
The highest heat index values and threat for heat related illnesses will be across southern Missouri.
Some potential that storms developing near Oklahoma/Kansas line this afternoon, along approaching cold front, could keep heat indices from reaching full potential.
/issued 450 PM PDT Tue Jul 2 2024/ Main changes begin to take place on Thursday as the ridge of high pressure over the eastern Pacific begins pushing into the Pacific Northwest. High temperatures will climb into the lower to mid 90s across the lower elevations with pleasant 80s in the mountains.
Behind the weak cold front, expect slightly cooler temperatures for the Fourth with only 70s east of the Divide and 60s to the west. Weaker winds and cooler temperatures will see good fire weather conditions for fireworks later that evening and into the nighttime hours.
We will continue to observe hot and humid conditions as the ridge of high pressure and 850mb temperatures continue to hold steady. Temperatures for the holiday will be pretty similar to today's, maybe a touch warmer.
1216 AM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024 (Tonight through Wednesday night) The benign weather regime featuring hot and rain free conditions under mostly clear to partly cloudy skies will continue as a mid- level ridge continues to influence the region, despite the ridge becoming gradually more centered across the Southeastern US.
(Today and tonight) Showers and thunderstorms in the vicinity of the cold front are expected to continue off and on through the day across portions of northern and western Oklahoma.
144 AM EDT Wed Jul 3 2024 Slightly cooler and drier air will remain over the area through tonight. Ridging builds into the area late this week and into the weekend resulting in above normal temperatures and Heat Index values near 110 possible. Key Message(s): - Heat Index values up to 105 possible Thursday afternoon Ridging over the Deep South will remain in place through the short term. The higher dewpoints and warmer temps expected on Thursday should push Heat Index values into the 100 to 105 range.
Surface ridging has built back in north of the boundary, helping to maintain our SSE flow regime. Benign conditions expected overnight with temperatures bottoming out in the low/mid 70s.
(Today through Thursday night) The cold front that made it through the southern Texas Panhandle earlier tonight is expected to stall and dissipate today. On the 4th of July, a stronger cold front is expected to move through the Panhandles during the late morning and afternoon.
- Rain showers, and a few thunderstorms, will occur across the area tonight and through the day Thursday, making for a cooler and soggy Fourth of July.
326 AM EDT Wed Jul 3 2024 High pressure will push off of the Mid Atlantic coast tonight and Wednesday. A dying cold front will push in from the Great Lakes Wednesday night, then stall out over the area late this week.
1031 PM MDT Tue Jul 2 2024 - An unsettled weather pattern continues through this week as a trough remains over the region. Troughing will be the general weather pattern through this weekend, with several waves within the trough sliding through Wyoming. Once the wave passes by, the cooler air aloft will allow for isolated convection to develop.
139 AM EDT Wed Jul 3 2024 Dry weather will continue tonight and much of Wednesday as high pressure gradually crosses the region. Pleasant weather will continue overnight, though mid/high clouds will gradually increase as a warm front approaches the region. The warm front will lift across the region Wednesday morning, ushering in a warmer and muggier airmass.
133 AM EDT Wed Jul 3 2024 As dry and cooler high pressure moves off the East Coast tonight and Wednesday, the heat wave will again become established for the second half of the week.
A cold front will approach the Arkansas, Missouri border Wednesday afternoon, and will promote scattered thunderstorm development.
Meanwhile, upper ridging remains in place over the SE US shifting flow to northeasterly. High temperatures will be in the low 90s.
- Cold front on Thursday will bring cool, pleasant weather for holiday festivities. Recent water vapor satellite imagery and RAP upper air analysis reveals broad longwave troughing is spread out from the Pacific Northwest all the way through the central/northern plains and into the Midwest. At the surface, latest observations show the cold front has stalled out near the border of the OK and TX panhandles, extending northeast from there. While this frontal passage is not expected to bring any chance for precipitation, it will transport cooler air into southwest KS, allowing for a very pleasant summer afternoon for Independence Day festivities with highs in the mid to upper 80s.
The cold front is currently draped across the southeastern portions of our forecast area, with far southeast Iowa the only area left in the warm sector ahead of the front. Skies will be clearing as showers move out of the area this evening with high pressure sliding across the area overnight. We're watching Wednesday night into Thursday morning as an upper-level trough swings through bringing another MCS across our area with potential for additional severe weather. We could still see some potential for damaging winds and large hail, though, with the highest risk for our western counties. During the day on Thursday, for the Fourth of July holiday, the base of the upper-level trough swings through transitioning our upper-level flow pattern from southwesterly to a slightly tamer northwesterly flow regime.
- Independence Day will be a bit cooler than normal, though that will be offset by muggy 70s dew points. Independence Day, tomorrow, will be slightly cooler than normal which would be great for outdoor celebrations, but have dewpoints in the mid 70s.
If a strong enough updraft were to develop initially, perhaps some hail would be possible, but high freezing levels lead to lower confidence in this threat. The sfc front looks to be south of the area by this time, but could lift back north as a warm front Wednesday into Thursday. At this time though, there are some hints that perhaps the upper trough and associated sfc front are trending a bit further east.
An approaching trough will bring a cold front through the region today, increasing the chance for showers and thunderstorms to 40-70%. Highs today will be upper 60s to 70s today, with the cooler temps out west. The trough will progress into the Dakotas this evening, leaving some moisture behind.
Low temperatures will remain on the warm side as they will range from the mid 70s across the Lake Okeechobee region to the lower 80s across the east coast metro areas. (Rest of today through Wednesday) Upper-level (H500) ridging will gradually expand further over the southeastern CONUS, allowing for an easterly to southeasterly mean steering flow to prevail across South Florida. A few subtle low- level inverted troughs could bring a surge of moisture, leading to intermittent rounds of showers and thunderstorms developing at atypical hours, not following the typical diurnal cycle. Afternoon high temperatures will generally range from the upper 80s along the immediate east coast to the low 90s, with convective debris limiting higher temperatures. Overnight lows will range from the low 70s to around 80 degrees.
Dry through the weekend with sunny skies, northerly afternoon and evening winds along with temperatures trending warmer. High pressure centered just off the central CA coast continues to provide northwesterly flow aloft across NV. Tonight into Independence Day the center of the high to our west will begin to move onshore into CA, with 500DM heights over NV rising 2-4DMs by Thursday afternoon.
Light northerly winds and a mix of cloud cover should help keep highs notably cooler than yesterday, with max readings in the lower to middle 80s. This would place areas from Mound City/Butler to Sedalia within the highest prob zone, and likewise the greatest risk for flash flooding and additional river concerns. A seasonably strong upper trough and associated cold front will move through during the afternoon and evening hours. As such with complex convective scenarios, uncertainty exists to the degree of destabilization following morning convection and the specific timing/location of the cold front passage.
Highs will reach the lower 90s over southeast Missouri and dewpoints are forecast to be in the mid to upper 70s over much of the area.
651 AM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024 (Today and tonight) Showers and thunderstorms in the vicinity of the cold front are expected to continue off and on through the day across portions of northern and western Oklahoma.
Muscha (Today through Thursday night) The cold front that made it through the southern Texas Panhandle earlier tonight is expected to stall and dissipate today. On the 4th of July, a stronger cold front is expected to move through the Panhandles during the late morning and afternoon.
(Today and tonight) An upper level ridge will continue to dominate the weather across West Central Texas through the next 24 hours.
630 AM EDT Wed Jul 3 2024 High pressure will move southeast of the New England coast today with warm and dry conditions as a result. Another very quiet day expected today as a ridge of high pressure anchored over the Northeast gradually eases off the New England coastline this afternoon. It will become cooler along the immediate coastline as winds become onshore during the afternoon. A cold front will begin to dissipate over the region on Independence Day. Cooler conditions can be expected along the coastline where a sea breeze develops during the day.
Throughout the day, a mid-level trough will deepen over the northern plains states. Another surface boundary will set up over the area as the trough moves east, deeper into the Midwest.
604 AM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024 (Today and tonight) An upper level ridge will continue to dominate the weather across West Central Texas through the next 24 hours.
619 AM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024 (Today through Thursday) The subtropical ridge is centered over AL/MS this morning and extends to the west over TX. The upper ridge will continue to dominate keeping the forecast rain free. The low level flow will remain from the southeast keeping warm, moist air in place.
A very strong ridge is currently just off the west coast, with a strong, lateral ridge stretching across the southern CONUS. The most intense portion of this lateral ridge will over the whole of California be the weekend.
Temperatures also begin to rise today as high pressure begins to build over California.
651 AM EDT Wed Jul 3 2024 (Today and tonight) Upper level ridging situated on top of rich tropical moisture will continue through today. High pressure will slide down the eastern seaboard with east-southeast surface flow with a rich theta boundary along its axis, serving as a weak boundary to initiate storms this afternoon. High temperatures areawide will reach the low to mid 90s with overnight lows in the upper 70s.
547 AM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024 (Today through Thursday night) The cold front that made it through the southern Texas Panhandle earlier tonight is expected to stall and dissipate today. On the 4th of July, a stronger cold front is expected to move through the Panhandles during the late morning and afternoon.
- Northwest flow aloft and occasional cold fronts will maintain a daily threat of isolated to scattered afternoon and evening convection through the extended, with temperatures at or slightly below seasonal normals.
It's going to be a hot day as it's only 9:30 AM and heat index values are already climbing into the lower 100s. Temperatures each day will generally range from the upper 80s along the immediate East Coast to the low 90s across interior and southwest FL. Overnight temperatures will remain warm, providing little relief from the heat, with lows in the mid 70s over the interior and in the low 80s along the immediate coastlines.
- Independence Day will be a bit cooler than normal, though that will be offset by muggy 70s dew points. Further north, a weak trough near the Illinois River is forcing a couple weak, isolated showers. Independence Day, tomorrow, will be slightly cooler than normal which would be great for outdoor celebrations, but have dewpoints in the mid 70s.
| High pressure ridging across northern Florida and into the eastern Gulf of Mexico is producing a light wind flow with winds 10 knots or less through the rest of the week and into the weekend.
638 AM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024 (Today through Thursday) Upper level ridge has built in over the southeast and that is going to bring a stretch of hot weather for our area through the the 4th July. Highs today will push into the low to mid 90s and once you factor in the humidity it will feel 100 to 112. A short wave trough will be pushing through the Great Lakes pushing a cold front south. With the high dew points we will see plenty of CAPE across the area (1500-2500+ j/kg). The front will sag further south into our area as a stationary front and will eventually lift north as a warm front.
Pattern/synopsis: Low pressure in far nw Ontario, extends a cold front sse-ward across western upper MI and eastern WI. However, cool/dry advection is weak at low levels, and surface dew points will be maintained in the low-mid 60s today. But stronger sub-850mb convergence will be found in the UP, along with cooler temps aloft.
1227 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024 (Today and tonight) Upper-level troughing is moving into the central CONUS this morning which is increasing lift across the forecast area.
Expect additional shower and thunderstorm development through the afternoon and evening hours as a trough and cold front drop through the area. An approaching trough will bring a cold front through the region today, increasing the chance for showers and thunderstorms to 40-70%. Highs today will be upper 60s to 70s today, with the cooler temps out west. The trough will progress into the Dakotas this evening, leaving some moisture behind.
Rain and thunderstorms will resume overnight ahead of a cold front that will be trekking this way.
Afternoon satellite imagery shows some some cumulus development across the central mountains and around the Island Park region, closer to an upper level trough sweeping through Montana this afternoon. Tomorrow looks very similar, perhaps a few degrees warmer but still on the cooler side of normal for early July.
A cold front will overtake and advance the stationary boundary during the evening with a good chance of thunderstorms developing at that time, especially for northeast OK and northwest AR.
Model guidance shows little to no convection this afternoon, as the apex of the ridging fixes itself over the ArkLaTex.
(Tonight through Thursday night) Key Messages: - Moderate to Major risk of heat-related impacts mid-week - Medium chance for a Heat Advisory tomorrow A mid to upper level ridge will continue to sit across the Southern Plains and Southeast CONUS resulting in increased subsidence and promoting easterly flow a loft.
340 PM EDT Wed Jul 3 2024 High pressure will move off the East Coast, allowing warmer and more humid air to return to the Carolinas later this week.
The previous forecast had the general trends handled well and only minor tweaks - namely to increase POPs through the rest of the morning with the ongoing activity and also to spread the low POPs late this afternoon further south given data from recent CAMs.
Ridging over the western CONUS, as well as the southeastern CONUS, continues to enhance troughing across the Northern and Central Plains. As the upper low passes over the southern Red River Valley, we could see funnels develop where the strongest convection occurs.
After another mild night tonight, a cold front will move through for the 4th of July during the afternoon/evening.
103 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024 (Today through Thursday) The subtropical ridge is centered over AL/MS this morning and extends to the west over TX. The upper ridge will continue to dominate keeping the forecast rain free. The low level flow will remain from the southeast keeping warm, moist air in place.
1227 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024 (Today and tonight) An upper level ridge will continue to dominate the weather across West Central Texas through the next 24 hours.
Sfc analysis shows weak Atlc low level ridge axis continues to lift north, currently located across NE FL. A more dominant onshore flow on the south side of this ridge will produce an earlier sea breeze onset.
Overnight lows should be in the lower to middle 70s.
For tomorrow, expect temperatures and dew point values to be a few degrees warmer, so heat indices will be a bit higher with low 100s possible in parts of the middle and southern valley. Chances of thunderstorm activity does return tomorrow, but is on the low confidence side of things as far as location and coverage.
pdf Squeeze play between a trough just to our north, the Atlantic sea breeze and Gulf Sea Breeze front this afternoon and evening will lead to scattered to widespread convection over the spine of the FL peninsula and extreme SE GA.
High temperatures will be dangerously hot with temps climbing into the mid to upper 90s mixed with the high humidity will lead to heat indices to range from 110-120 degrees. Synoptically we will continue to see high pressure and ridging aloft will steadily continue to build east into the southeastern CONUS states where it will remain for the remainder of the period.
The showers in the diurnal cumulus should die with the sunset, where as the showers off the low may continue all night, slowly spreading north and east as the upper level wave moves east. For the morning hours, it looks like showers and maybe thunderstorms will be rotating around this low in northern South Dakota and into the south central of North Dakota. As the wave passes through, the flow aloft will turn northerly with an incoming ridge. Highs will be slightly cooler in the low to mid 70s.
This ridge of high pressure will be the dominant weather factor for the next couple of days keeping a predominant southeast wind flow over the region. Daytime highs will top out in the low to mid 90's with heat indices reaching 100-107 degrees. (Thursday night through next Wednesday) Throughout the next 3-7 days, high pressure to the northeast of the state will dominate the overall weather pattern and establish a predominantly east-southeast flow across our CWA.
The northward displacement of Major Hurricane Beryl, headed towards the southern Jamaican coastline, is being stinted by a formidable mid-level ridge, centered over the Southeast United States. From synopsis, high pressure over the western North Atlantic will maintain gentle to moderate easterly breezes. As Beryl approaches the Bay of Campeche and the high shifts in the North Atlantic, gentle breezes will veer to the southeast over the weekend.
Composite satellite analysis provides evidence of the storm being assaulted by quite a bit of upper- level shear, with a stubborn upper-level trough just off the Eastern Seaboard, and a building ridge extending from the Gulf of Mexico all the way northward to the Northeast. A combination of the drying dust feature along with the aforementioned ridge makes detecting isolated showers a bit difficult across the entire Gulf to east of the Bahamas, something quite unusual for early July.
This afternoon, synoptic cold front is located roughly near the I-55 corridor, while effective front from earlier convection just barely clips the southeastern forecast area near Lawrenceville. Temps jump from the low 80s north of the effective boundary to around 90F south.
Gusty winds combine with very dry air to result in critical fire weather conditions across portions of southern Idaho, particularly in the lower elevations where fuels are driest. Still closely tracking the development of a strong upper ridge building over the western CONUS.
While afternoon temperatures are near 100 in southwest Oklahoma and western north Texas, the afternoon highs in the northwest portion of Oklahoma will remain in the low to mid 80s.
946 PM EDT Wed Jul 3 2024 High pressure will move off the East Coast, allowing warmer and more humid air to return to the Carolinas later this week.
A strong upper ridge over the Eastern Pacific is continuing to build inland today and temperatures are rising in response.
(Through Thursday) Upper level ridge remains entrenched across the deep south and with it weak mid-level flow out of the north and northeast. With the ridge still in place, we'll see a slower start to storms again on Thursday like we saw today, but the main uncertainty forecast wise will be how warm we get before storms fire off. For tomorrow, guidance is running a degree or two warmer but a similar trend in convection is expected so whether we hit heat advisory criteria tomorrow is a little more difficult to ascertain but probabilities for reaching heat advisory levels do appear higher.
804 PM EDT Wed Jul 3 2024 High pressure brings hot weather this afternoon.
With dew points forecasted to remain in the low to mid 70s, the muggy daytime conditions will prevail into the night. Cloud cover will increase slightly from the north during the early morning hours as a weak cold front moves through the Ohio Valley.
621 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024 (Tonight through Thursday night) Key Messages: - Moderate to Major risk of heat-related impacts mid-week - Medium chance for a Heat Advisory tomorrow A mid to upper level ridge will continue to sit across the Southern Plains and Southeast CONUS resulting in increased subsidence and promoting easterly flow a loft.
Currently - Deep layered ridging is aligned over the southeastern United States. Short Term Update - Winds are expected to strengthen a bit further as Beryl moves closer to directly south of the Florida Keys and ridging remains entrenched across the southeast. The combination of a ridge across northern Florida and Hurricane Beryl tracking further into the Northwestern Caribbean Sea will result in winds freshening a bit further overnight.
850 PM EDT Wed Jul 3 2024 High pressure will move off the East Coast, allowing warmer and more humid air to return to the Carolinas later this week.
Convection across KY is expected to remain away from our area as ridging and subsidence continues to have strong influence over our weather. For tomorrow, expect temperatures and dew point values to be a few degrees warmer, so heat indices will be a bit higher with low 100s possible in parts of the middle and southern valley. Chances of thunderstorm activity does return tomorrow, but is on the low confidence side of things as far as location and coverage.
High pressure will continue to build into the West.
- Light disturbances rippling over the top of the high pressure ridge could bring some scattered clouds and maybe a shower to the Divide over the coming days. An upper level trough working through the Intermountain West this afternoon with a respectable jet streak digging through its base is bringing some gusty winds to the region. Overnight lows tonight will remain pleasant in the lower dewpoints. Independence Day will look very similar to today with winds backing off behind today's trough. The high pressure ridge over the West continues to amplify tomorrow, effectively blocking any moisture intrusion.
931 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024 00Z upper air analysis continues to depict an upper-level ridge located over the Lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast United States. 850 mb analysis shows a plume of low level moisture across the Lower Mississippi Valley, and extending as far north as central Illinois.
Otherwise, unseasonable cooler than average temperatures during the afternoon with some breezy westerly winds developing my early afternoon through sunset. Higher heights centered near the Sierra Nevadas will continue to build with increasing convergence aloft with ridging extending through the upper Rockies from Friday onward.