Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1240 PM CDT Thu Apr 4 2024 (Rest of today through Friday) A large stacked low pressure system was centered over Ohio this morning. It will be a little cooler than that Plateau and a little warmer over our southwest counties where more sunshine will be seen. The big low pressure system to our northeast will lessen its control Friday giving us lighter winds and a little more sunshine. (Friday Night through next Thursday) A surface pressure ridge will be directly over the area Friday night, so we expect it to be the coldest night with clearing skies and light winds.
(Tonight) An upper trough will continue to progress to the east, with upper ridging on its heels for the first part of the weekend. However, northwest flow and cold air advection will persist, resulting in much cooler temperatures tonight. Most locations over northern Alabama are expected to drop into the mid to upper 30s, with spots over southern middle Tennessee and sheltered valleys of northeast Alabama in the lower 30s.
Cooler than normal conditions with the upper low across the region. Less clouds across our far southern and southwestern counties (near Marion County) tomorrow afternoon as upper low transitions slowly eastward. Discussion: Widespread broken cloud cover continues beneath the upper low with scattered afternoon convection today through early tonight while low-level lapse rates are at their greatest. The Winter Weather Advisory will continue for the higher elevations. Colder weather continues tonight with northwest flow and the upper trough across the Appalachians. Upper level low begins to move east tomorrow afternoon with ridging beginning to build in from the west. Cooler temperatures will continue area-wide with longwave troughing across the Appalachians.
A large trough along the Northern California coast will slowly progress eastward into the Central Rockies by this weekend leading to periods of showery and cool weather for the Northern Rockies. Of interest this afternoon and evening, a mid level low embedded within this trough is expected to shift southeastward, triggering isolated thunderstorm development in western Idaho and west- central Montana. Focus tonight shifts to precipitation wrapping around the approaching low pressure area. Grangeville and the Camas Prairie are forecast to receive 1 to 3 inches of snow on non-paved surfaces but given the low confidence on road impacts, an advisory was not issued at this point.
Dry weather will continue into Friday with the caveat that winds will increase due to the influence of pressure falls over the High Plains.
This results in high pressure to our west and a large upper low to our northeast transporting cooler and dry air into the area. Temperatures are about all we have to forecast with highs in the low 70s and lows in the upper 30s to 40s.
Clear skies will allow temperatures to dip into the 40s inland tonight staying in the lower 50s along the coast.
1230 PM CDT Thu Apr 4 2024 (Today through Friday) Clear skies are intact across all of south central Texas early this morning, with current temperatures ranging from the mid 40s in the Hill Country to the lower 60s along the Rio Grande. A quiet weather pattern will continue through the short term portion of the forecast as mid and upper level ridging builds in from the west.
(The rest of tonight) Weak high pressure will slide off to the east overnight, resulting in clear skies and light winds across the area. (Tonight through Thursday) Southerly winds will resume Friday, advecting warmer air back into the area.
603 PM CDT Thu Apr 4 2024 (This evening through Friday) Tonight will be slightly warmer than last night (temperatures in the upper 30s to upper 40s) due to continued warm advection and a slight breeze being maintained overnight. Tomorrow represents the peak of our warming trend for most of the area (highs in the 70s northeast to 80s southwest) as the upper level ridge moves over us.
505 PM EDT Thu Apr 4 2024 Slow-moving low pressure off the New England coastline will gradually weaken in place through Friday.
633 PM CDT Thu Apr 4 2024 (This evening through Friday) Upper ridging, clearly evident on WV imagery, will remain overhead tonight allowing for mild overnight lows in the mid 40s to mid 50s and light surface winds. The upper ridge will be kicked eastward tomorrow/afternoon by a closed upper low moving into California from the Pacific. To add insult to injury, the pressure gradient along the surface lee trough will tighten as the upper low pushes eastward through the day resulting in a breezy day.
Currently - Very comfortable conditions prevail in wake of last mornings late season cold front. Temperatures are now broadly in the lower 70s. The cold front has swept stable conditions across the area. Short Term Update - High pressure across the Gulf of Mexico will maintain gentle to moderate northwest to northerly breezes across the Keys through the overnight period. Stable post cold front conditions will prevail across Keys waters through the overnight period. High pressure across the Gulf of Mexico will maintain gentle to moderate northwest to northerly breezes. Satellite imagery and upstream observations appear agree that the usual post cold front stratocumulus has not been very prolific.
-Highest elevations/ridgetops will see slushy snow accumulation mainly on non-paved surfaces. The upper low is over Fulton Co (or thereabouts) at 23Z.
Not many changes to the trough deepness and location since the latest model runs, thus the areas of precipitation and windy conditions continue to remain on track. With the higher elevations, the High Wind Watch was upgraded to higher end Wind Advisory criteria with sustained southwest winds at 35-45 mph and gusts up to 55 mph. It can still be possible for some localized areas along the mountain ridges to reach High Wind criteria, but is not widespread across the area to upgrade to a High Wind warning. Snow totals bumped up just a tad to some of the higher peaks seeing 3-4 inches, but in populated areas, such as Summerhaven, could see 1-2 inches.
A mid-latitude cyclone is working through the Great Lakes Region and into New England as a trailing frontal boundary sweeps south into the Florida Straights, the Bahamas, and the Western Atlantic off the E coast. This is all in association with a deep upper-level low and trough axis stacked in the same region. In the coming days, a strong upper-level ridge will build eastward over the FL peninsula, solidifying the dry and stable pattern.
As the low spins around New England on Friday, an embedded disturbance will rotate southward on its backside, moving across our area during the day.
804 PM EDT Thu Apr 4 2024 Slow-moving low pressure off the New England coastline will gradually weaken in place through Friday night and will keep some rain and nuisance wet snow in place across our region. with the greatest amounts found across the higher terrain.
A very cold low pressure system will bring high winds, cold temperatures, and snowfall accumulations for the end of this week. The low pressure system from the northwest is still on track to deliver quick but impactful weather hazards for northern Arizona. First, strong southwest winds will develop tonight and last into tomorrow ahead of an incoming cold front. The High Wind Watch has been upgraded to a Wind Advisory and a High Wind Warning for that region. As the cold front moves west to east across northern Arizona tomorrow, precipitation will as well.
600 PM CDT Thu Apr 4 2024 (This evening through Friday) A benign short-term forecast is on tap for the area as upper level ridging moves overhead this evening and continues through much of tomorrow. As the upper ridge begins to move off to the east late in the day, southwest flow aloft will increase out ahead of the next upper level system in the Western CONUS. Daytime highs will be comparable to today in the low to mid 80s as the high clouds look to limit any significant warm-up from today. Mainly dry weather through the weekend followed by a more By Friday night, a large upper level low will move through the Great Basin into the central/southern Rockies.
658 PM CDT Thu Apr 4 2024 (Tonight through Friday night) Key Message: - High confidence in elevated fire weather conditions from inland Kleberg County to Bee County and westward A mid to upper level ridge axis moves across Texas tonight through Friday, leading to mostly clear skies. A deep trough over the western CONUS will shift eastward into the central CONUS heading into the weekend.
The region is still under the influence of a broad upr trough extending from the NE CONUS and Canadian Maritimes SWWRD into the TN Valley. A deck of low clouds on the SW flank of the trough are moving across the area, but the edge of this cloud deck is slicing roughly NW-SE, and continuing to blanket about the NE half of the area.
(Through Friday) Tonight will be dry and cool as an upper level positively tilted trough continues to move east out of the east coast, as the weakening low pressure system goes out to the Atlantic. In the morning and daytime tomorrow, relative humidities will go down to around the low 30s across our tri-state area as temperatures rise away from the dewpoints. That being said, temperature will stay relatively cool compared to the rest of this week, ranging in the lower 70s in AL and GA counties, and the mid 70s in the FL big bend region. With a eastward moving high pressure system in the middle of the country causing a large pressure gradient, there may be some solid wind gusts during the day and evening on Friday, ranging from 17-20kts across the forecasting area.
947 PM CDT Thu Apr 4 2024 Clouds associated with an upper level low over Pennsylvania and New York continue to rotate across eastern Missouri into West Tennessee, but should thin and erode tonight as the system continues east. Current temperatures are several degrees warmer than last night, generally in the 50s, but more favorable conditions are in place for radiational cooling. Expect afternoon highs Friday in the low to middle 50s across most of the area.
1037 PM EDT Thu Apr 4 2024 Slow-moving low pressure off the New England coastline will gradually weaken in place through Friday night and will keep some rain and nuisance wet snow in place across our region. with the greatest amounts found across the higher terrain.
555 PM CDT Thu Apr 4 2024 (Rest of today through Friday) A large stacked low pressure system was centered over Ohio this morning. It will be a little cooler than that Plateau and a little warmer over our southwest counties where more sunshine will be seen. The big low pressure system to our northeast will lessen its control Friday giving us lighter winds and a little more sunshine. (Friday Night through next Thursday) A surface pressure ridge will be directly over the area Friday night, so we expect it to be the coldest night with clearing skies and light winds.
616 PM CDT Thu Apr 4 2024 (Tonight) An upper trough will continue to progress to the east, with upper ridging on its heels for the first part of the weekend. However, northwest flow and cold air advection will persist, resulting in much cooler temperatures tonight. Most locations over northern Alabama are expected to drop into the mid to upper 30s, with spots over southern middle Tennessee and sheltered valleys of northeast Alabama in the lower 30s.
Cooler and drier air advection on its way in the wake of the FROPA across SoFlo. The cooler air mass and the NW flow will result in morning lows dropping into the low-mid 50s inland, and in the upper 50s to around 60 elsewhere. (Rest of today through Friday) Weather conditions have begun to improve this afternoon behind the passage of a weak cold front. With the front now well to our south, generally northwesterly winds will advect cooler and drier air over the area allowing for more comfortable sensible weather through the short term. High temperatures today will reach the upper 70s to around 80, while lows overnight will range from the low 50s around the interior/Lake O region, to the upper 50s to low 60s along the coast. High temps on Friday will generally be in the low 80s.
623 PM CDT Thu Apr 4 2024 - Another night of near to below freezing temperatures.
709 PM EDT Thu Apr 4 2024 (Through Friday) Tonight will be dry and cool as an upper level positively tilted trough continues to move east out of the east coast, as the weakening low pressure system goes out to the Atlantic. In the morning and daytime tomorrow, relative humidities will go down to around the low 30s across our tri-state area as temperatures rise away from the dewpoints. That being said, temperature will stay relatively cool compared to the rest of this week, ranging in the lower 70s in AL and GA counties, and the mid 70s in the FL big bend region. With a eastward moving high pressure system in the middle of the country causing a large pressure gradient, there may be some solid wind gusts during the day and evening on Friday, ranging from 17-20kts across the forecasting area.
336 AM CDT Fri Apr 5 2024 - A Freeze Warning and Frost Advisory is in effect for the entire region from 12-8AM Saturday with temperatures falling into the low to mid 30s.
1147 PM CDT Thu Apr 4 2024 (The rest of tonight) Weak high pressure will slide off to the east overnight, resulting in clear skies and light winds across the area.
An upper level low moving through the northeast continues to bring northwesterly winds and lingering cloud cover just northeast of the TN Valley. However, upper level ridging from the west allows skies to clear through the afternoon into the evening hours tonight as winds decrease and become variable in direction.
As the low spins around New England on Friday, an embedded disturbance will rotate southward on its backside, moving across our area during the day. This will allow high pressure to build into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley.
328 AM CDT Fri Apr 5 2024 - Cooler temperatures through this morning.
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: An upper level Low will slowly track eastward to the south of the area this weekend bringing precipitation to the area along an inverted trough as it does so. The warmer than average air will keep precipitation type predominately as rain to start with.
The latest water vapor images and 500-mb height analysis showed the big upper low/trough in the West was slowly moving east as a pronounced ridge was over the central CONUS. At the surface, a very tight MSLP gradient was noted up-and- down the High Plains, which was promoting gusty southeast winds even at this time of night over nwrn SD and near the Pine Ridge. Otherwise, some showers and a few thunderstorms may move across the wrn CWA tonight as a lead impulse ejects from the upper low.
(Today through Saturday Night) Southwesterly flow and sunny skies will contribute to warmer temperatures today as highs reach into the 80s. High pressure aloft will continue off to the east while a tightening pressure gradient at the surface will lead to strengthening onshore winds, courtesy of a low pressure system approaching from the Rockies. Increasing cloud cover will keep highs a touch cooler on Saturday.
With that, winds are expected to come back down tonight as upper- level ridging starts building in from the west. Cool air will continue to filter in as we are on the backside of this low, thus temps tonight will be quite cold with lows 30-37 degrees. Temps are expected to warm into the low 60s. A little cool, but there will be ample sunshine as the upper-level ridge moves directly over the area. (Saturday Night through next Friday) Saturday night will be warmer than previous nights with temps in the upper 30s to low 40s.
(Today and tonight) A narrow, but amplified upper ridge will move west to east across the plains today.
Current Water Vapor and upper air analysis shows upper ridge over the northern and central plains, closed low sitting over the midwest, and an upper trough with another closed low over the west coast. Temperatures currently range in the mid 50s towards south central SD, to the low 70s over SW SD and NE WY with breezy southeast winds this afternoon. Thermal ridging will continue to keep warmer temperatures in the region through Friday. As the upper low pushes eastward into the Rockies tonight into Friday, a tightening pressure gradient will bring strong winds into the region, especially later Friday into Saturday.
(Today through Saturday) Key Messages: -Elevated (High chance 80%) fire danger this afternoon in the Brush Country, Rio Grande Plains, the inland portions of the Coastal Bend High pressure continues over south Texas both at the sfc and at 500 mb, today. With the higher humidity, the fire issues should be minimal.
(Today through Saturday) A large upper level low is centered over New England this morning, with its footprint covering the entire eastern CONUS. An amplified ridge stretches through the Plains and into central Canada, while a second closed low and trough are rotating onshore along the West Coast. At the surface, high pressure centered over Hudson Bay stretches southward through the MIssissippi River Valley to the Gulf of Mexico. Locally, with low pressure to our northeast and high pressure to our west, Central Alabama continues to be under northwesterly flow and cool, dry advection. High pressure shifts eastward across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys today and tomorrow. Highs this afternoon will be in the lower 60s to lower 70s. As winds diminish tonight and temperatures cool into the low to mid 30s, patchy frost could develop, mainly north.
Discussion: A large and nearly stationary upper low will remain centered to our northeast, with cold northwest flow over our area.
1225 AM CDT Fri Apr 5 2024 - Much cooler temperatures tonight into Friday morning.
1156 PM CDT Thu Apr 4 2024 - Another night of near to below freezing temperatures.
1239 AM CDT Fri Apr 5 2024 (This evening through Friday) A benign short-term forecast is on tap for the area as upper level ridging moves overhead this evening and continues through much of tomorrow. As the upper ridge begins to move off to the east late in the day, southwest flow aloft will increase out ahead of the next upper level system in the Western CONUS. Daytime highs will be comparable to today in the low to mid 80s as the high clouds look to limit any significant warm-up from today.
(Today) A pleasant day is in store across the region today, with mostly clear skies expected underneath modest mid level ridging.
326 AM CDT Fri Apr 5 2024 - A Freezing Warning and Frost Advisory is in effect for the entire region from 12-8AM Saturday with temperatures falling into the low to mid 30s.
420 AM EDT Fri Apr 5 2024 Low pressure meanders in the Gulf of Maine through Saturday. This low then slowly exits to the southeast through Saturday night.
With cold air advection easing, high temperatures Friday will be just a touch warmer with slowly decreasing clouds very late in the day. We're between systems on Saturday, with a welcome warming trend, as ridging briefly builds in ahead of a closed upper-level low over the Central Plains.
In the higher elevations expect snow shower potential with upslope dominating in the northeast mountains. This will create accumulations in the higher elevations above 2500ft. By this evening, Shower potential should wane in the lowlands and upslope will continue to keep snow potential going for the higher elevations. Around up to 5 or 6 inches of more snow fall could potentially fall today in the northeast mountains across the highest elevations. Temperatures will remain below normal with just upper 40's for daytime highs, around freezing for the mountains. Overnight, expect widespread freezing temperatures for the morning lows.
1041 PM CDT Thu Apr 4 2024 (This evening through Friday) Tonight will be slightly warmer than last night (temperatures in the upper 30s to upper 40s) due to continued warm advection and a slight breeze being maintained overnight. Tomorrow represents the peak of our warming trend for most of the area (highs in the 70s northeast to 80s southwest) as the upper level ridge moves over us.
Clear skies will allow temperatures to dip into the 40s inland tonight staying in the lower 50s along the coast. (Friday through Saturday night) A mid/upper level trough across the East Coast of the CONUS will slowly move offshore on Friday night and will cause heights to rise over the region. At the sfc on Friday, high pressure ridge is over the MS valley and lingering post- frontal troughing over the Appalachians will maintain a weak to moderate pressure gradient in place over the area.
H5 ridging prevails today across the Central and Northern Plains, with low pressure on either side. Southeast winds are expected to increase today, with higher winds expected Saturday as an H5 upper low traverses the Plains heading into the weekend.
(This afternoon through Friday) - Cooler temperature will continue. Cool temperatures are expected once again tonight, with lows ranging from the lower 30s across the NE mountains to the mid 40s in the extreme SE. The extreme NE may drop below freezing prior to sunrise, and a Freeze Warning has been hoisted for that area.
136 AM EDT Fri Apr 5 2024 Slow-moving low pressure off the New England coastline will gradually weaken in place through Friday night and will keep some rain and nuisance wet snow in place across our region. with the greatest amounts found across the higher terrain.
Surface winds will shift to the southeast and will pick up as the low deepens over WY and the gradient increases tomorrow. The gradient will grow even tighter as the upper low starts to move out into the Plains on Saturday, and there is some 40 percent probability of wind advisory criteria.
217 AM CDT Fri Apr 5 2024 - High pressure remains dominant through Saturday with dry weather.
Finally, with increasing winds and building seas along the Lower Texas Coast, a LOW RISK of rip currents at the local beaches today will become MODERATE tonight and HIGH on Saturday.
1223 AM CDT Fri Apr 5 2024 (This evening through Friday) Upper ridging, clearly evident on WV imagery, will remain overhead tonight allowing for mild overnight lows in the mid 40s to mid 50s and light surface winds. The upper ridge will be kicked eastward tomorrow/afternoon by a closed upper low moving into California from the Pacific. To add insult to injury, the pressure gradient along the surface lee trough will tighten as the upper low pushes eastward through the day resulting in a breezy day.
Dry northwest flow aloft per water vapor imagery this afternoon while the prominent closed low lifts into the northeast region and a secondary upper wave enters the western coastline. As an area of high pressure to our north spreads southward this evening, winds should calm before sunset under clear skies into the overnight period. Concern shifts to the frost potential overnight as a decent sfc inversion sets up, allowing temps to fall into the lower 30s. The warmup begins tomorrow as southerly return flow commences as a lee trough develops over the western high plains. Southeast winds may reach gusts around 20 kts in north central Kansas where highs peak in the lower 70s. A strengthening pressure gradient in the low levels boosts south winds into advisory criteria from 20 to 30 mph sustained with gusts in upwards of 50 mph Saturday afternoon.
1115 PM CDT Thu Apr 4 2024 Clouds associated with an upper level low over Pennsylvania and New York continue to rotate across eastern Missouri into West Tennessee, but should thin and erode tonight as the system continues east. Current temperatures are several degrees warmer than last night, generally in the 50s, but more favorable conditions are in place for radiational cooling. Expect afternoon highs Friday in the low to middle 50s across most of the area.
A mid-level low pressure center is on track to traverse through eastern Idaho and southwest Montana, enveloping the area in precipitation by this afternoon.
With mostly clear skies and light NW winds, tonight's lows will range from the low 50s around the interior/Lake O region, to the upper 50s to low 60s along the coast.