Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Further elongation/shearing of the large upper level low to take place this evening/tonight, with a pronounced upper level ridge building east through the northern Great Lakes.
- An approaching dry cold front will bring elevated to critical fire weather on Sunday.
(Today through Sunday) Upper low/Post Tropical Cyclone Helene was over Kentucky early this morning, with ridging over the Rockies, and near Bermuda. Mid-level clouds associated with the low were just to the north of the local area. There is really nothing in the short term to force the upper low away from where it is currently residing.
This is due to the completion of the Fujiwhara process across the entire Eastern US, leaving a large trough to linger over the area through Sunday, and keeping quiet northerly flow over the Ark-La-Tex.
(Today) A cut-off low continues to meander over the Tennessee and Ohio River Valleys this morning. Light showers and drizzle has continued through the overnight hours and is forecast to remain throughout most of today as moisture wraps around the low. The higher chances of seeing rain will be north of the Tennessee River, closer to the low pressure center.
2) A cold front will approach Sunday night with gusty northwest winds along with scattered showers.
(Today through Sunday) The remnants of Helene linger around the Ohio and Tennessee River valleys through the weekend with an associated trailing tail of moisture cross over southern Florida Saturday into Sunday as high pressure tries to build in from the Atlantic. Today will be the day with the highest rain chances this weekend and the threat of localized flooding from excessive rainfall cannot be ruled out. Rain chances will fall below climatological norms and the lower humidity will help drop heat index values a few degrees but not enough to make up for the southerly flow and abundant sunshine bringing 105 to 110 degree values across much of the area.
1139 PM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024 Showers associated with an upper level low will continue to diminish in coverage tonight as it weakens and shifts south into north Mississippi.
Despite the high clouds through the day, another unseasonably warm day is expected for most locations. With the exception of the higher terrain in southeast OK and northwest AR (where temps will struggle to peak above 80 degrees), temperatures will range in the low-mid 80s, perhaps reaching the upper 80s along and west of Highway 75 in northeast OK.
A stagnant weather pattern will remain in place until the remnants of Helene become reabsorbed into faster mid-level flow and the stout western/central CONUS ridge axis eventually breaks down. Similar highs in the upper 80s and lower 90s will continue much of the upcoming week as northerly flow aloft gives way to ridging.
pdf The cold front from the remnants of Helene have stalled just south of the region and will slowly make its way back north through the day and wobble near Florida's big bend area to the FL/GA border.
Accompanying this moisture will be some very light shower activity at times for portions of C AL during the short term as the low weakens. The better chances will be across the far NRN counties closer to the low. With still some tighter surface pressure gradients around the low, winds will be a tad up today. Our diurnal temperature range will increase today and Sunday as highs slowly moderate, along with overnight lows a couple of degrees cooler.
High pressure will result in near record high temperatures across Utah and southwest Wyoming this weekend.
1213 AM CDT Sat Sep 28 2024 (This evening through Saturday) Dry northerly flow remains the story aloft through Saturday east of a large blocking high anchored over Arizona. At the surface, a N-S ridge axis currently just east of our forecast area will shift west tonight and remain with us through Saturday. Accompanying this ridge will be lower thicknesses for Saturday, so high temps should end up a few degrees cooler than today on E-NE winds.
Today: Early this morning, remnants of Helene are rotating over portions of the Mid MS River Valley in western KY, stacked vertically underneath the upper low in the same region. Tonight: As the broad low pressure at the sfc & aloft remains parked in the same area, similar cloudiness is expected overnight as is ongoing this morning.
Strung out deformation axis around low pressure over western Kentucky will bring periods of showers today with some gradual expansion in coverage expected this morning as diurnal heating ensues. Cigs in the lower MVFR to occasional IFR range will be the rule. Further elongation/shearing of the large upper level low to take place this evening/tonight, with a pronounced upper level ridge building east through the northern Great Lakes.
711 AM EDT Sat Sep 28 2024 Dry weather returns into the weekend as high pressure moves overhead.
With upper-level ridging in place expect upper 80s to low 90s for western NV and for the lower valleys across northeast CA. West to southwest winds will become breezy this afternoon in response to a weak trough passing to our north on Sunday.
Breezy easterly winds today as high pressure builds down the front range. Sunday: Although high temperatures will be 2 to 5 degrees cooler than today they still be near the Sep 29th record highs.
High winds will also be a factor in the next few days as high pressure sets in. Water Vapor imagery this morning shows a nearly cutoff upper low barreling toward south and central CA with a mostly dry air mass in tow. The majority of the upper wave pattern is north of CA and 850mb show continual warming patterns persisting in our area for the next few days as the cooler air mass is blocked and stays with the long wave trough to the north of our CWA, as previously stated.
655 AM CDT Sat Sep 28 2024 (Today through Sunday) Upper low/Post Tropical Cyclone Helene was over Kentucky early this morning, with ridging over the Rockies, and near Bermuda. Mid-level clouds associated with the low were just to the north of the local area. There is really nothing in the short term to force the upper low away from where it is currently residing.
A weak closed low will bring slightly cooler weather for Sunday.
The warmest temperatures today will be over northwest parts of the CWA where the cloud cover will be the thinnest and the easterly component of the wind supports the highest temperatures there. - Showers Possible Today through Sunday South Forecast remains steady as post tropical cyclone Helene continues to slowly move north-northeastward.
This is producing areas of primarily drizzle and light rain over the Tennessee Valley/Arkansas this morning along and ahead of several trough axes rotating around this feature. However, models show another trough axis rotating east into northwestern Alabama from eastern Arkansas/NE Mississippi shortly after this rainfall pushes into Georgia. This should keep highs a bit cooler than earlier expected. Highs today were dropped a bit into the lower to mid 60s near and north of the Tennessee River.
543 AM CDT Sat Sep 28 2024 (Today) A cut-off low continues to meander over the Tennessee and Ohio River Valleys this morning. Light showers and drizzle has continued through the overnight hours and is forecast to remain throughout most of today as moisture wraps around the low. The higher chances of seeing rain will be north of the Tennessee River, closer to the low pressure center.
1050 AM EDT Sat Sep 28 2024 Dry weather returns into the weekend as high pressure moves overhead.
620 AM CDT Sat Sep 28 2024 (Today and tonight) West central Texas remains between an upper-level ridge over the Four Corners region and the remnants of Post-Tropical Cyclone Helene over the Mid-South.
619 AM CDT Sat Sep 28 2024 (Today and tonight) A stagnant upper air pattern will result in another dry and quiet weather day for our region as we remain positioned between upper ridging to our west and broad troughing to our east. Slightly more robust northeast winds and modest decreases in layer thicknesses will keep temperatures a couple of degrees cooler compared to yesterday over most of the forecast area today, though highs will still be 5 to 10 degrees above normal.
608 AM CDT Sat Sep 28 2024 (Today through Sunday afternoon) Latest water vapor imagery indicates a broad trough to the east over the Ohio and Middle Mississippi Valleys that includes the remnants of Helene, and ridging to the west over the Four Corners and Rockies, both of which are responsible for persistent northerly flow over the region. A dry boundary layer and ideal radiational cooling conditions tonight will allow for a somewhat chilly, but near normal night as lows drop into the middle 50s to lower 60s, with upper 40s possible across portions of the Marfa Plateau and in the higher terrain of the Davis Mountains.
404 AM CDT Sat Sep 28 2024 (Today through Sunday Night) A picture-perfect weekend is in store for Southeast Texas with drier air/northerly winds continuing to prevail as the remnants of Helene and an upper level low remain to our northeast. Let's talk about the good stuff first, and that's the low temperatures! Temperatures out the door this morning will be in the low to mid 60s for most locations, and expecting the same for tonight/Sunday morning as well. This was hinted at earlier, but the drier air in place will heat rather efficiently as we'll see temperatures this afternoon top out mainly in the low 90s. 850 mb temperatures will be slightly higher on Sunday (mainly west of I-45), so we'll see a slight bump in our high temperatures into the low to mid 90s with higher temperatures west of I-45.
658 AM EDT Sat Sep 28 2024 (Today through Sunday) The remnants of Helene linger around the Ohio and Tennessee River valleys through the weekend with an associated trailing tail of moisture cross over southern Florida Saturday into Sunday as high pressure tries to build in from the Atlantic. Today will be the day with the highest rain chances this weekend and the threat of localized flooding from excessive rainfall cannot be ruled out. Rain chances will fall below climatological norms and the lower humidity will help drop heat index values a few degrees but not enough to make up for the southerly flow and abundant sunshine bringing 105 to 110 degree values across much of the area.
As of 10 AM, temperatures are in the low to mid 80s with dew points in the mid to upper 70s. Deep moisture will lift towards central Florida through this afternoon between the Atlantic high and post tropical cyclone Helene. Afternoon highs will be in the low 90s with peak heat indices ranging from 103-107 degrees.
649 AM EDT Sat Sep 28 2024 Post-Tropical Cyclone Helene has been absorbed by a large low pressure system, and was now located over western Kentucky.
Sunday, another upper trough will swing north of the area, and a dry cold front will push into the area. It will remain dry, but cooler in the afternoon, with gusty afternoon and early evening breezes for the interior westside valleys, and east of the Cascades.
From synopsis, High pressure will build across Florida over the next several days.
Cooler temperatures on Sunday with a weak disturbance, but not expecting any precipitation.
1224 PM CDT Sat Sep 28 2024 (Today and tonight) A stagnant upper air pattern will result in another dry and quiet weather day for our region as we remain positioned between upper ridging to our west and broad troughing to our east. Slightly more robust northeast winds and modest decreases in layer thicknesses will keep temperatures a couple of degrees cooler compared to yesterday over most of the forecast area today, though highs will still be 5 to 10 degrees above normal.
Weak troughing at the mid/upper levels and light offshore winds at the lower levels will help maintain the lower dewpoints and mostly clear skies through tomorrow night. Lows tonight will be in the lower to mid 60s. Highs tomorrow should be similar to those of today as we range from the upper 80s in the Piney Woods (and the beaches) to the lower 90s elsewhere.
319 PM CDT Sat Sep 28 2024 Tonight through Sunday: Afternoon global guidance continue to show an upper low associated with remnants of Helene rotating over Tennessee Valley as we go through the weekend. Overnight low will in the low 60s across our forecast area. Heading into tomorrow, the remnants of Helene will continue to stall over the Tennessee Valley as global guidance shows mid- troughing lagging across north MS. Expect afternoon highs to peak in the low to mid 80s across the CWA.
A potent upper level trough will move through western Canada during the day tomorrow and this feature will tighten the pressure gradient significantly leading to a breezy day across the area.
Continue to use caution during clean-up and recovery efforts from Helene as heat index values during the peak heating of the afternoon will reach the lower to middle 90s.
/Issued 1041 AM CDT Sat Sep 28 2024/ /Through Sunday/ Elevated moisture wrapping around the deep low pressure system centered across Western Kentucky will result in scattered high clouds this afternoon, especially across the northeast zones. The clouds should have no impact on temperatures with highs reaching the middle 80s to the lower 90s. Another warm but still beautiful day is expected Sunday with plenty of sun and highs in the 80s to the lower 90s.
(This afternoon through Sunday) Satellite and model data show the remnants of Helene lingering around the Tennessee valley and combining with a mid level trough/low complex. Bands of showers with embedded thunderstorms will continue to stream SW to NE across SoFlo through the rest of the weekend as moisture advection between the decaying front and building high pressure over the west Atlantic continues. Rain chances will fall below climatological norms and the lower humidity will help drop heat index values a few degrees but not enough to make up for the southerly flow and abundant sunshine, bringing 105 to 110 degree values across much of the area.
Right now the low center is just to the north of Clarksville and it will generally stay in that area and gradually weaken in pressure. Light showers and drizzle will spin around the low throughout the day and overnight. The low will continue to weaken and slowly drift eastward some. The low clouds will start to break up some in the afternoon and that will help to bring slightly warmer temperatures with highs around 70.
The lower cloud cover tomorrow will allow temperatures to be a couple degrees warmer than those today, with lower wind speeds also resulting from a weaker pressure gradient. Forecast highs tomorrow reflect the values from the NBM's 75th percentile given the lower cloud cover.
Broad surface ridging emanating from a high in southern Manitoba will stay with us through Sunday before finally peeling away Sunday night.
233 PM MDT Sat Sep 28 2024 -Dry weather, much warmer than average temperatures, and critical fire weather conditions on Sunday.
Furthermore, an expansive cirrus shield remains across a large chunk of the eastern CONUS in response to the slow moving upper low.
NHC is monitoring the western Caribbean for possible tropical cyclone development and is indicating a medium (50%) chance of development in the next 7 days. Upper low will shift only slightly eastward through Sunday with northwesterly winds resulting in continued dry conditions across the local area. Expect morning lows in the low to mid 60s across northern areas, and in upper 60s to lower 70s in southern areas. Afternoon highs will flirt with or rise just higher than 90 degrees, but will still feel reasonably comfortable given dewpoints in the low to mid 60s.
This is aided by the high thickness values for the end of September along with warmer than expected mid atmosphere temperatures. Those east winds will keep morning lows slightly warmer than this morning's observed values. High pressure will remain a large influence for the region through the rest of the weekend and into the new week. There is some moisture creeping into the area around the high pressure to give slight chances for showers and thunderstorms.
(This afternoon through Sunday night) WV imagery shows the upper ridge centered over southeast Arizona, resulting in meridional flow this afternoon over West Texas and Southeast New Mexico. As such, the short term continues to remain dry, but with mild temperatures due to the displaced nature of the ridge. Sunday, a trough will make landfall on the west coast in SoCal, nudging the ridge up to just south of the Four Corners.
Highs in the lower to mid 80s northeast and mid to upper 80s elsewhere are expected. This is due to the completion of the Fujiwhara process across the entire Eastern US, leaving a large trough to linger over the area through Sunday, and keeping quiet northerly flow over the Ark-La-Tex.
The vast upper level closed low centered over the Ohio Valley near its confluence with the Mississippi River continues to exert its far- reaching influence on ArkLaTex weather. The circulation around the low is sweeping wraparound moisture down its western flank, sustaining scattered to broken clouds across approximately the northern half of the ArkLaTex, primarily along and north of the I-20 corridor. Based on tonight's cloud cover across the northern portions of the Four State Region, lows look to remain fairly mild, falling into the low to mid 60s across the region. The exception will be where clouds linger for most of the day, with highs once again climbing only into the low to mid 80s in southwestern Arkansas.
Remnants of Helene remain well off to the east, embedded within an upper level trough. Tot he west, upper level ridge continues to bring intense heat the Southwest US. In any case, more of the same to continue with lows perhaps inching up into the lower 60s and afternoon highs again around the 90 degree mark.
422 PM EDT Sat Sep 28 2024 - Showers move back into the area today as very slow moving low pressure system meanders through the Commonwealth.
1216 PM CDT Sat Sep 28 2024 (Today through Sunday Night) A picture-perfect weekend is in store for Southeast Texas with drier air/northerly winds continuing to prevail as the remnants of Helene and an upper level low remain to our northeast. Let's talk about the good stuff first, and that's the low temperatures! Temperatures out the door this morning will be in the low to mid 60s for most locations, and expecting the same for tonight/Sunday morning as well. This was hinted at earlier, but the drier air in place will heat rather efficiently as we'll see temperatures this afternoon top out mainly in the low 90s. 850 mb temperatures will be slightly higher on Sunday (mainly west of I-45), so we'll see a slight bump in our high temperatures into the low to mid 90s with higher temperatures west of I-45.
Mid-level cloud cover has increased this afternoon across the High Country with a few virga showers possible given that humidity at the surface is currently sitting at or below 15%. Temperatures are just downright hot right now with much, if not all of northern Arizona above 80 degrees with 95+ degrees in the lower deserts.
Temperatures are currently in the 80s to lower 90s and highs later today will be in the lower to upper 90s across the area. This overall pattern will continue for the short-term as troughing remains well to our east. Low temperatures tonight and tomorrow night will be back in the 50s and 60s with the cooler values expected in the Hill Country.
(The rest of today ) High clouds wrapping around a strong closed upper low currently over the mid south region is about the only item of note heading into the afternoon.
1137 AM CDT Sat Sep 28 2024 (Today through Sunday afternoon) Latest water vapor imagery indicates a broad trough to the east over the Ohio and Middle Mississippi Valleys that includes the remnants of Helene, and ridging to the west over the Four Corners and Rockies, both of which are responsible for persistent northerly flow over the region. A dry boundary layer and ideal radiational cooling conditions tonight will allow for a somewhat chilly, but near normal night as lows drop into the middle 50s to lower 60s, with upper 40s possible across portions of the Marfa Plateau and in the higher terrain of the Davis Mountains.
226 PM EDT Sat Sep 28 2024 (This afternoon through Sunday) Models are in good agreement; the upper low will remain over KY through the period with the associated mid-level trough impacting portions of TN/AL and north GA.
Highs in the lower to mid 80s northeast and mid to upper 80s elsewhere are expected.
Dry Pacific cold front, currently along 130W, is forecast through eastern OR Sunday morning and western ID Sunday afternoon, but some models e.
1206 PM CDT Sat Sep 28 2024 (The rest of today ) High clouds wrapping around a strong closed upper low currently over the mid south region is about the only item of note heading into the afternoon.
322 PM EDT Sat Sep 28 2024 Dry weather will continue for the next few days as high pressure remains centered just to our east.
High temperatures will range from around 70 far north to the low 80s generally along and south of the U. High temperatures will range from the low 70s far north to the mid 80s across the far southern counties.
215 PM MDT Sat Sep 28 2024 - High pressure remains in control for the next several days. - Some models indicate very isolated convection over the higher terrain while others keep dry weather in place. Plenty of cumulus clouds have popped over the higher terrain this afternoon but the question remains whether we'll see any showers or storms. The location of the high pressure center won't change all that much despite an area of low pressure to our west. In fact, the low won't move much either.
Dry weather continues as the upper level ridge begins to shift east.
(Tonight through Sunday night) The pressure gradient remains weak through the weekend across the western Gulf of Mexico, with an elongated mid level trough extending from the remnants of Helene in the Ohio River Valley southwest across Texas. With a southwesterly downsloping flow, expect temperatures a few degrees warmer for both today and Sunday afternoon, into the mid to upper 90s.
1141 AM CDT Sat Sep 28 2024 (Today and tonight) West central Texas remains between an upper-level ridge over the Four Corners region and the remnants of Post-Tropical Cyclone Helene over the Mid-South.
308 PM EDT Sat Sep 28 2024 An upper level low will propagate eastward the next several days bringing occasional showers and possible thunderstorms. A cold front will move through midweek with high pressure building thereafter. Showers will spread eastward late tonight from the Appalachians to the Blue Ridge Mountains as closed low inches closer. As upper low advances slowly eastward, expect more showers and possible thunderstorms.
(Now through Sunday night) Dry conditions look to continue through the remainder of the weekend as large scale subsidence dominates the region south of the nearly stationary and large deep low pressure system centered over the vicinity of Kentucky. Lows tonight and Sunday night should continue to range in the lower to mid 60s over interior locations and in the upper 60s to mid 70s along the immediate coast and beaches.
The low will meander around the Bowling Green/Mammoth Cave NP region tonight, keeping widespread low clouds and patchy light rain in the forecast. On Sunday the low will continue to spin down as it wanders around central Kentucky. The patchy light rain will continue but decrease in areal coverage as the low weakens. We may actually see some partial sunshine in the afternoon allowing temperatures to rise into the lower and middle 70s west of a Lexington-Bowling Green line, and upper 60s to the east. Winds will continue to be light with the low overhead. For the first part of this forecast period, we'll be dealing with a slow moving upper level low that will be over KY at the beginning of the period.
A weak cold front will cross the region Sunday and Sunday night without rain, but a second front arrives midweek with more of a threat for showers. Otherwise it will be another good night for radiational cooling and fog in the low lying areas. High pressure in control Sun but gives way to a weak cold front approaching from the northwest.