Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
633 PM CDT Sat Oct 12 2024 (This evening through Sunday) The forecast area will remain under mid/upper level ridging through Sunday. However, an upper level trough moving from Manitoba to the western Great Lakes will drive a cold front southward into the forecast area early Sunday. How strong the push to the front is will go a long way to the high temperature forecast for tomorrow. Recent model track record with these fronts undercutting the upper ridge has not been too good, generally being too aggressive with the southward movement.
- After a warm day with highs in the 80s today, a dry cold frontal passage moves through Sunday.
Tonight's cold front is making steady progress through SE KS this evening and will enter NW portions of the forecast area overnight. Impacts from the front will become more pronounced during the day tomorrow with cooler, drier, and windier conditions in the post-frontal airmass. Otherwise, lows are still on track to bottom out in the low-mid 60s tonight under partly cloudy skies. (Through Tonight) Near record high temperatures for this afternoon across the region with widespread temps in the low to mid 90s. Cooler conditions are expected behind the front Sunday afternoon, but temperatures are still forecast to climb into the 90s south of the front across southeast Oklahoma and into west-central Arkansas.
(Tonight) No significant changes are needed to the ongoing forecast this Sat evening, as high pressure at the sfc remains layered from the southern Atlantic Basin into the western Gulf Coast. Current temps have fallen into the 60s across most areas from their earlier highs in the lower/mid 60s.
946 PM EDT Sat Oct 12 2024 A low pressure system will move across the southern Great Lakes tonight into Sunday morning with a cold front then moving southeast through the Ohio Valley Sunday into Sunday night.
603 PM CDT Sat Oct 12 2024 (Through Tonight) Near record high temperatures for this afternoon across the region with widespread temps in the low to mid 90s. Cooler conditions are expected behind the front Sunday afternoon, but temperatures are still forecast to climb into the 90s south of the front across southeast Oklahoma and into west-central Arkansas.
Discussion: For tonight, ridge of high pressure will remain over the area. For Sunday, surface ridging moves east as an upper trough moves across the Great Lakes and Ohio valley.
A dry cold front will drop south through the region Sunday night. Behind the front, cooler air will move in place for much of the upcoming week.
611 PM CDT Sat Oct 12 2024 - Near-record warmth today before a cold front moves in this evening and filters in more seasonable temperatures in for the next several days.
845 PM EDT Sat Oct 12 2024 High pressure will remain in control of the weather through the weekend.
848 PM MDT Sat Oct 12 2024 The plains will remain cooler today, with the Southwest Valleys staying warmer.
421 PM CDT Sat Oct 12 2024 (This evening through Sunday Night) Record high temperatures still appear possible tomorrow in many locations, as compressional warming ahead of the cold front continues to look likely. Highs tomorrow will range in the low to mid-90s, with most record highs on the books falling somewhere in that ballpark. Otherwise before the cool down, look for lows tonight to range in the low to upper-60s.
957 PM CDT Sat Oct 12 2024 - Widespread freezing temperatures early this week during the morning hours. The showers have mixed down the higher winds where winds have gusted between 32 and 40 mph. Upper level trough continues to push eastward in southern Canada, while an upper level ridge continues to amplify in the western United States. Cooler air will continue to funnel down from Canada early this week before the ridge out west begins to build into our area mid to late week.
942 PM EDT Sat Oct 12 2024 - Pattern Change Toward Cooler and Showery Weather Forecast is going pretty much as expected. The leading edge of this subsidence is well correlated with both the cold front and the back edge of persistent convection moving eastward across southern Lake Michigan and far southern Lower MI. Weather more typical of October is on the way as a 130 kt upper level jet diving in from the northwest carves out a deep upper trough over the GrtLks Rgn. A wave of low pressure tracks from srn Iowa to nrn Ohio along that frontal zone tonight. Once those showers/storms exit later tonight we go into a bit of lull until more showers develop Sunday afternoon with the arrival of the upper low/trough. The deeper moisture departs late Sunday night as the upper low pulls way.
High pressure is filling back in as post frontal conditions usher in calmer winds and mild temperatures, especially for the interior.
Showers have mostly dissipated as the upper level low slowly tracks overhead today, but a few isolated showers will continue into this evening.
531 PM MDT Sat Oct 12 2024 Dry and warmer than average conditions will continue through the first portion of the work week.
- Freezing temperatures expected tonight into Sunday morning across north central and western north Dakota.
High pressure over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico is holding quiet conditions in place over Deep South Texas for the short term forecast. 16 inches) and primarily confined to the lowest levels, promoting rain- free conditions for the period.
556 PM CDT Sat Oct 12 2024 (Tonight through Sunday night) Quiet weather conditions will generally persist through the short- term cycle as ridging remains in control aloft. Otherwise, expect temperatures to fall into the low to mid 60s tonight and Sunday night, with highs warming into the mid 80s to mid 90s range on Sunday.
934 PM CDT Sat Oct 12 2024 It is a little milder tonight as light south winds continue this evening ahead an approaching cold front over the Mid-Mississippi Valley. Lows will be about five degrees warmer than last night.
639 PM CDT Sat Oct 12 2024 - Widespread freezing temperatures early this week during the morning hours. Upper level trough continues to push eastward in southern Canada, while an upper level ridge continues to amplify in the western United States. Cooler air will continue to funnel down from Canada early this week before the ridge out west begins to build into our area mid to late week.
Lows tonight range from the lower 50s inland to 55-60 near the coast. Highs on Sunday will be in the mid to upper 80s, then lows Sunday night will be relatively mild and typically range from the lower 60s inland to the mid 60s at the coast.
558 PM CDT Sat Oct 12 2024 Updated at 556 PM CDT Sat Oct 12 2024 - Cold front moves through on overnight/Sunday bringing cooler temperatures. - Rain chances return late in the week (Tonight and Sunday) After near record heat today, a cold front will enter northwest Oklahoma this evening and make its way south across the area tonight into the day Sunday. Cooler temperatures however will be confined to mainly northern half of the area as farther south afternoon highs will once again climb well into the 90s. Along with cooler temperatures, drier air will also filter south into the area. So even with the cooler temps, the combination of breezy northeast winds, low afternoon humidity (around 20%) and ongoing worsening drought conditions, some elevated fire weather concerns will linger.
KBYX is only detecting isolated showers south of the Lower Keys that has remained mostly stationary over the past hour. A weak warm front is lifting north across our area, which has been the main triggering mechanism for convection today. Temperatures have already dropped into the upper 70s and dew points are in the lower 70s, making for an exquisite October night. Further slackening is expected overnight and into Sunday as a high pressure in place over the southeastern U.
High pressure continues to dominate the southeast today and tomorrow, meaning no PoPs through tomorrow afternoon. A deepening trough near the end of the period over the east coast will help to weaken the high pressure.
847 PM CDT Sat Oct 12 2024 - Dry and breezy conditions will overspread central Illinois Sunday behind a departing cold front.
(Tonight and Sunday) Pleasant weather continues to round out the weekend with mostly clear skies and no precipitation, thanks to high pressure over the region. Lows tonight will range from the mid-40s to around 50 in the countryside to the low and mid-50s elsewhere. Highs on Sunday will be in the low to mid- 80s.
647 PM EDT Sat Oct 12 2024 A weak cold front will remain nearby tonight before low pressure rides along it Sunday through Sunday night.
545 PM MDT Sat Oct 12 2024 UPDATED AVIATION SECTION The plains will remain cooler today, with the Southwest Valleys staying warmer.
A slow-moving closed low has reached southeastern Oregon this evening and will continue to drift southward overnight, expected to reach northern Nevada by late Sunday morning.
707 PM EDT Sat Oct 12 2024 (Tonight and Sunday) Pleasant weather continues to round out the weekend with mostly clear skies and no precipitation, thanks to high pressure over the region. Lows tonight will range from the mid-40s to around 50 in the countryside to the low and mid-50s elsewhere. Highs on Sunday will be in the low to mid- 80s.
648 PM EDT Sat Oct 12 2024 High pressure will remain in control of the weather through the weekend.
1214 AM CDT Sun Oct 13 2024 (Through Tonight) Near record high temperatures for this afternoon across the region with widespread temps in the low to mid 90s. Cooler conditions are expected behind the front Sunday afternoon, but temperatures are still forecast to climb into the 90s south of the front across southeast Oklahoma and into west-central Arkansas.
1150 PM CDT Sat Oct 12 2024 - Widespread freezing temperatures early this week during the morning hours. UPDATE The showers have mixed down the higher winds where winds have gusted between 32 and 40 mph. Upper level trough continues to push eastward in southern Canada, while an upper level ridge continues to amplify in the western United States. Cooler air will continue to funnel down from Canada early this week before the ridge out west begins to build into our area mid to late week.
1025 PM CDT Sat Oct 12 2024 Updated at 1023 PM CDT Sat Oct 12 2024 - Cold front moves through on overnight/Sunday bringing cooler temperatures. - Rain chances return late in the week (Tonight and Sunday) After near record heat today, a cold front will enter northwest Oklahoma this evening and make its way south across the area tonight into the day Sunday. Cooler temperatures however will be confined to mainly northern half of the area as farther south afternoon highs will once again climb well into the 90s. Along with cooler temperatures, drier air will also filter south into the area. So even with the cooler temps, the combination of breezy northeast winds, low afternoon humidity (around 20%) and ongoing worsening drought conditions, some elevated fire weather concerns will linger.
1221 AM CDT Sun Oct 13 2024 (This evening through Sunday) The forecast area will remain under mid/upper level ridging through Sunday. However, an upper level trough moving from Manitoba to the western Great Lakes will drive a cold front southward into the forecast area early Sunday. How strong the push to the front is will go a long way to the high temperature forecast for tomorrow. Recent model track record with these fronts undercutting the upper ridge has not been too good, generally being too aggressive with the southward movement.
210 AM EDT Sun Oct 13 2024 - Pattern Change Toward Cooler and Showery Weather Forecast is going pretty much as expected. The leading edge of this subsidence is well correlated with both the cold front and the back edge of persistent convection moving eastward across southern Lake Michigan and far southern Lower MI. Weather more typical of October is on the way as a 130 kt upper level jet diving in from the northwest carves out a deep upper trough over the GrtLks Rgn. A wave of low pressure tracks from srn Iowa to nrn Ohio along that frontal zone tonight. Once those showers/storms exit later tonight we go into a bit of lull until more showers develop Sunday afternoon with the arrival of the upper low/trough. The deeper moisture departs late Sunday night as the upper low pulls way.
Discussion: The pressure gradient will be tightening across the TN Valley today as a cold front moves into the OH Valley.
- Freezing temperatures tonight into Sunday morning across north central and western north Dakota.
1103 PM CDT Sat Oct 12 2024 - Dry and breezy conditions will overspread central Illinois Sunday behind a departing cold front.
A weak, upper-level low pressure system is still on track to migrate southward, across Nevada, on Sunday.
1232 AM EDT Sun Oct 13 2024 A weak cold front will remain nearby tonight before low pressure rides along it Sunday through Sunday night.
The next system then brings cooler temperatures and precipitation chances by midweek, with breezy to gusty northerly winds and potential fire weather concerns following through the end of the week. Otherwise, clearing skies are anticipated throughout the day as broad ridging aloft builds in across the region.
By tomorrow, much cooler weather returns with high temperatures generally in the 60s through much of this week.
110 AM EDT Sun Oct 13 2024 (Rest of today through Sunday) A weak warm front remains in place over the Florida straits south of high pressure over the SE US. Overnight lows will remain in the low to the mid 70s.
1113 PM CDT Sat Oct 12 2024 It is a little milder tonight as light south winds continue this evening ahead an approaching cold front over the Mid-Mississippi Valley. Lows will be about five degrees warmer than last night.
1214 AM CDT Sun Oct 13 2024 (Tonight) No significant changes are needed to the ongoing forecast this Sat evening, as high pressure at the sfc remains layered from the southern Atlantic Basin into the western Gulf Coast. Current temps have fallen into the 60s across most areas from their earlier highs in the lower/mid 60s.
1205 AM CDT Sun Oct 13 2024 (Tonight through Sunday night) Quiet weather conditions will generally persist through the short- term cycle as ridging remains in control aloft. Otherwise, expect temperatures to fall into the low to mid 60s tonight and Sunday night, with highs warming into the mid 80s to mid 90s range on Sunday.
1120 PM MDT Sat Oct 12 2024 Dry and warmer than average conditions will continue through the first portion of the work week.
241 AM EDT Sun Oct 13 2024 - Rain developing over the west half tonight, continuing into Sunday along with cooler temps.
1239 AM CDT Sun Oct 13 2024 - Near-record warmth today before a cold front moves in this evening and filters in more seasonable temperatures in for the next several days.
Dry conditions and slightly cooler temperatures to start the week, as a weak upper low slides across the area.
(Today) Cold front, currently moving into far northeast Oklahoma this morning, will continue pushing south to near a MLC/FSM line by early afternoon. Unseasonably warm conditions will persist south of the boundary with high temperatures again warming into the lower 90s. Although cooler temperatures are forecast, a very dry air-mass will allow afternoon minimum RH values to fall to around 20 percent.
1229 AM CDT Sun Oct 13 2024 Clear skies and light southerly winds are the theme tonight as temperatures begin to dive into the low and mid 70's. By Sunday morning, mid to upper 60's will cover the FA as a cold front slowly inches towards the region. KNAPP (This evening through Sunday Night) Record high temperatures still appear possible tomorrow in many locations, as compressional warming ahead of the cold front continues to look likely. Highs tomorrow will range in the low to mid-90s, with most record highs on the books falling somewhere in that ballpark. Otherwise before the cool down, look for lows tonight to range in the low to upper-60s.
It appears that we will not have a strong convergent low-level focus across the Keys today, with the trough weakening and lifting northward as discussed above. A rather non-descript October weather pattern will prevail across the Keys during the first part of the work week, with plenty of moisture lingering across our area but forcing generally lacking, as the lower-mid level ridge axis remains just to our south.
We are in the midst of cooler temperatures after a very hot start to October thanks to a trough that slid in to our north. However, the trough has been influenced by the ridge that was dominating and became a rex block.
247 AM CDT Sun Oct 13 2024 - Today will be the last day of unseasonably warm temperatures as a cold front ushers in a dry cooler airmass tonight.
1006 PM CDT Sat Oct 12 2024 Clear skies and light southerly winds are the theme tonight as temperatures begin to dive into the low and mid 70's. By Sunday morning, mid to upper 60's will cover the FA as a cold front slowly inches towards the region. KNAPP (This evening through Sunday Night) Record high temperatures still appear possible tomorrow in many locations, as compressional warming ahead of the cold front continues to look likely. Highs tomorrow will range in the low to mid-90s, with most record highs on the books falling somewhere in that ballpark. Otherwise before the cool down, look for lows tonight to range in the low to upper-60s.
High pressure over the western Atlantic and over the southeast U. An inverted trough between the Bahamas and southeast Florida will produce isolated showers and storms (20- 30 percent POPS) for southern Florida today. Comfortable temperatures with lower humidity are also expected through the day with daytime highs in the low to mid 80's and overnight lows dipping into the 60's and low 70's once again Sunday night. Farther to the north, an area of low pressure moves eastward through the New England states on Sunday evening with a cold front extending southwest through the Ohio River Valley.
1134 PM MDT Sat Oct 12 2024 The plains will remain cooler today, with the Southwest Valleys staying warmer.
Despite the shift to easterly winds, mostly sunny skies remain expected under an upper ridge and well-above average temperatures will continue, with highs ranging front the mid 80s across the northern South Plains and far southwestern Panhandle and low-to-mid 90s elsewhere.
623 AM CDT Sun Oct 13 2024 (Today through Monday) A 500 mb ridge over the Desert Southwest into the Big Bend of Texas will continue to build over the region through the period. At the surface, high pressure across the Gulf of Mexico will remain in control through Monday. Highs today and Monday are expected to be slightly above normal with temperatures generally in the low to mid 90s.
Surprisingly even with the northeast wind, dew points are in the upper 70s and temperatures are already in the lower 80s. Gentle to occasional moderate east to southeast breezes early will become light and variable this afternoon, as high pressure moves offshore over the western Atlantic, and a weak low pressure trough over the Keys waters dissipates.
800 AM MDT Sun Oct 13 2024 Satellite imagery this morning shows clear skies over most of N-Central and SW MT with an upper level ridge axis centered across the Northern Rockies, sandwiched in between a weak upper low over the Northern Great Basin and broader upper-troughing across central and eastern Canada.
A few rural locations in northern Lake and Volusia Counties could approach the lower 60s! (12Z TAFs) Some very ISO fog and stratus has developed at KLEE (LIFR) and KFPR- KSUA (MVFR), prompting short-fused TEMPOs for those terminals.
603 AM CDT Sun Oct 13 2024 (Tonight through Monday night) Water vapor imagery this morning reveals upper level ridging across the Plains as a trough digs across the Midwest.
High pressure is building into the area this morning, with low clouds for the coast into the Coquille and lower Umpqua valleys, and also the Klamath River Valley in western Siskiyou County.
Updated at 401 AM CDT Sun Oct 13 2024 - Cold front moves through today.
High pressure continues to fill in aloft this morning behind a passing upper level low.
The upper low that was off the Oregon coast Sat am was over SW ID this am.
637 AM CDT Sun Oct 13 2024 (Today through Monday Night) An upper ridge continues centered over the southwest U. An upper low will develop in the Great Lakes area Sunday. A cold front in southern Missouri will move into north Arkansas this morning and through the rest of Arkansas during the day today. It will bring cooler and drier air however. A noticeable temperature change is expected as Canadian high pressure builds into the state tonight and Monday. Lows tonight will be in the mid 40s to around 60 degrees and Monday night are expected in the low 40s to low 50s.
A persistent longwave ridge remains entrenched across much of the western US. As such, well above normal temperatures continue, with NBM probabilities of at least tying the high temperature record at Phoenix Sky Harbor Airport at 93% today and 85% tomorrow. A weak closed low can be seen in water vapor imagery at this hour, undercutting the Western US ridge and moving southward towards the Great Basin region.
607 AM CDT Sun Oct 13 2024 (Today) Cold front, currently moving into far northeast Oklahoma this morning, will continue pushing south to near a MLC/FSM line by early afternoon. Unseasonably warm conditions will persist south of the boundary with high temperatures again warming into the lower 90s. Although cooler temperatures are forecast, a very dry air-mass will allow afternoon minimum RH values to fall to around 20 percent.
600 AM CDT Sun Oct 13 2024 (Today through Monday) The main high pressure has been elongated and allowed a weak trough to develop in the Mid-Atlantic states. The main center of the high is now along the Gulf Coast.
- Dry pattern returns this week with cooler temperatures through mid week. A rapidly developing area of low pressure will drive strong CAA this morning bringing showers and thunderstorms in addition to gusty winds that will change direction through the day. An MCV can be seen rotating near KHIB on radar from prior thunderstorm activity though this seems to be in the area of the synoptic low which is likely going to cause the low to deepen more rapidly than what models have eluded to. Tonight, models suggest a chance of snow or mixed precipitation as temperatures drop to around or just below freezing.
435 AM CDT Sun Oct 13 2024 Updated at 431 AM CDT Sun Oct 13 2024 - Cold front moves through today.
Temperatures will be near record high over the delta region and continue warmer than normal elsewhere this afternoon but, a dry cold front will drop into our CWA tonight and bring cooler temperatures to the northern half of our CWA by morning. This will result in an increase in low level moisture over our region ahead of the approaching cold front. Temperatures are expected to top out in the lower 90s generally along and northwest of the Natchez Trace. The northwest flow aloft today will continue tonight and help support the cold front entering our northwest most zones around midnight and making it to the Interstate 20 corridor by sunrise.
Temperatures will be slightly warmer today compared to the past few days with afternoon highs topping out in the middle to upper 80s. Dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s will keep heat index values in the lower 90s.
610 AM CDT Sun Oct 13 2024 -Cooler weather has arrived for today.
(Rest of Today) We remain under the influence of high pressure that's centered along the Gulf Coast. A cold front currently in the Mid MS Valley will arrive tonight but has already increased the pressure gradient here in the TN Valley. Otherwise, no major changes to today's forecast, but be ready for the cooler air behind this front.
After several hot days (and we have another on the way), a cold front will arrive this evening. Highs will reach the low to mid 90s once again with 80s in the higher terrain. By late afternoon, a weak cold front will be entering the region from the north. Temperatures will only be slightly cooler behind the front with lows mostly in the 50s (40s possible around Tatum). Highs Monday will be cooler, but remain well above normal.