Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
622 PM CDT Tue Sep 2 2025 - A Marginal Risk (1 of 5) for a few severe thunderstorms possible this afternoon/evening with the arrival of a cold front.
718 PM CDT Tue Sep 2 2025 Area radars are showing widely scattered showers across the region this morning, associated with a weak cold front that is somewhere over the southern third of the state.
620 PM CDT Tue Sep 2 2025 - Potential for a few severe thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon and evening as a cold front moves through the area. A weak upper low continues to drop south over eastern Kansas this afternoon, supporting a few remnant sprinkles over northeast Kansas. Otherwise, clouds are gradually thinning out as the low moves away from our area. Attention then turns to a much stronger upper low that will move southeast over the Upper Midwest tonight into tomorrow, driving a cold front southeast through our area. Sunshine and southwest winds ahead of the cold front will help us climb into the 80s during the afternoon, for once not too far away from seasonable values. Increasing mid-level flow in advance of the upper low will allow for effective bulk shear of around 40 kts.
604 PM CDT Tue Sep 2 2025 - A cold front will bring (80% chance) showers and thunderstorms to central Illinois Wednesday afternoon and evening.
612 PM CDT Tue Sep 2 2025 - There are small chances for t-storms ahead of a cold front Wednesday evening across south central Kansas.
Drier air on the west side of a weak area of low pressure east of Florida has helped limit shower and storm activity through the day. Rain and storm chances remain on the lower side on Wednesday, so will cover this with VCTS after 19Z for all terminals.
As of 8 PM MDT, the low pressure system was centered near San Francisco and is forecast to track northeast, reaching northeast California by late Wednesday morning.
709 PM EDT Tue Sep 2 2025 High pressure will extend across the area through late week. A cold front will approach from the northwest late in the weekend. Tonight: Little change to the pattern overnight as the forecast area continues to sit between high pressure inland and an area of low pressure offshore. We should see another quiet night with lows dipping into the low to mid 60s.
626 PM CDT Tue Sep 2 2025 Updated at 624 PM CDT Tue Sep 2 2025 - Much drier conditions and warmer temperatures are in store through the end of the week. (This afternoon through Wednesday night) Current satellite imagery and latest RAP analysis shows upper-level ridging building in from the Rockies and Great Basin. This will increase subsidence promoting dry and warmer conditions across the forecast area. Areas across the higher terrain look to reach the upper 70s to mid 80s. A rinse and repeat weather pattern is in store tomorrow as high temperatures will be a degree or two warmer with continued dry conditions, thanks to the upper ridge building in further east.
709 PM EDT Tue Sep 2 2025 High pressure over the central Appalacians through mid Atlantic will keep mostly dry conditions across the middle Ohio Valley into midweek.
1255 AM EDT Wed Sep 3 2025 High pressure to our north will extend southward through the area today. A weak cold front will approach from the west tonight and early Thursday.
- Temporarily much warmer Wednesday, followed by a weak cold front Wednesday evening.
206 AM EDT Wed Sep 3 2025 Temperatures warming to near normal through Thursday ahead of a cold front.
200 AM CDT Wed Sep 3 2025 - Temporarily much warmer Wednesday, followed by a weak cold front Wednesday evening.
1006 PM MDT Tue Sep 2 2025 - Cold front moves through this evening and could bring some isolated thunderstorm chances - Increasing smoke and haze by tomorrow afternoon - Dry secondary cold front Thursday will bring gusty northwest winds around 40 mph Large amplitude ridge continues to sit across the four corners with the eastern edge of this ridge axis shifting east into the Front Range. Upper level moisture is spilling over the top of the ridge axis so we should an increase of high clouds into the evening. We are tracking an upper low as it moves into the midwest region and this low will push frontal boundary into western SD late this afternoon.
206 AM EDT Wed Sep 3 2025 High pressure to the north will maintain cooler weather through tonight.
Discussion: A series of disturbances traversing the southern edge of broader mid-level troughing will sweep across the Tennessee River Valley through Thursday, weakening the antecedent wedge airmass/cool dome in place. Surface winds will continue to veer to the southwest by early afternoon, allowing for the intrusion of warmer, slightly more moisture-rich air (dewpoints gradually returning to the 60s). Very similar trends are expected tomorrow, albeit with slightly higher coverage (20-40% chances Thursday afternoon) owing to bolstered lift associated with an approaching pre-frontal trough. Temperatures will continue to moderate with rebounding moisture, topping out in the 80s today and warming by just a few degrees for Thursday, into the lower 90s for south central Georgia.
Steep lapse rates have developed over the higher terrain which is allowing a few showers and weak thunderstorms to develop. High resolution models have been persistent in showing some of these showers moving off the higher terrain and over the I-25 corridor late this evening. A cold front will move across the eastern plains of Colorado on Wednesday. Therefore, only a couple brief showers are expected over the higher terrain with the vast majority of the area being dry. By the evening, a strong cold front will race through our forecast area.
* The next widespread chance for showers comes Thursday with a cold front.
- Cold front moves through Wednesday night bringing cooler than normal temperatures for Thursday.
- Warmer weather expected on today and Thursday with highs back in the 80s to mid 90s.
- Dry and warmer weather is expected through this week. Expect temperatures in the lower to middle 90s for this afternoon, which is pretty close to normal (96 degrees) for this time of year.
(Today through Thursday) Upper ridging from the Four Corners area to British Columbia. At the surface, weak low pressure centers were noted over Kentucky and northern Arkansas. Even at the surface, mid afternoon dew points were in the lower and middle 60s for much of the area.
- Warmer temperatures persist through midweek - Showers and storms return later in the week High pressure remains in place over the area with the ridge axis over Idaho, though high pressure is starting to break down or weaken. There is still some lingering valley smoke/haze (AQI in the low 50s) across our area with light smoke moving into the area over the Montana Divide with high pressure starting to break down.
Once that occurs, look for sunny skies inland and for high temperatures to be a few degrees cooler than yesterday.
Rain chances taper off into Wednesday morning as high pressure pushes into Deep South Texas with the front finally moving south of the region.
- A cold front will move through the area on Thursday and bring gusty to strong winds for many locations.
1250 AM CDT Wed Sep 3 2025 Area radars are showing widely scattered showers across the region this morning, associated with a weak cold front that is somewhere over the southern third of the state.
1251 AM CDT Wed Sep 3 2025 - A Marginal Risk (1 of 5) for a few severe thunderstorms possible this afternoon/evening with the arrival of a cold front. The first is an area of Cu along and ahead of a surface cold front across E SD into north central MN. Surface analysis reflect an uptick in dew points ahead of the front with values in the low to mid 60s as low level moisture pools ahead of the cold front.
200 AM MDT Wed Sep 3 2025 - Lingering precipitation ends today, but smoke remains - Strong dry cold front Thursday brings gusty northwest winds (40-55mph) with elevated fire danger 07z surface analysis had cold front from central NE through the Black Hills into south-central MT, slowly moving southwest. It will drive a strong dry cold front through the CWA during the day, but not before temperatures pop into the 80s ahead it across the southern half of the area.
344 AM EDT Wed Sep 3 2025 High pressure builds off the east coast as low pressure begins to deepen over the northern Great Lakes. The low pressure will move slowly towards the James Bay region dragging a cold front across the area on Thursday.
This includes a 40% chance for below freezing temperatures in northwest Minnesota Thursday morning. Clouds have overspread basically the entire FA now, as the post cold front airmass advects through the region. Upper low over northern Manitoba will dig down into Ontario and northern MN later tonight. The cold front is through all but our four southeastern counties, and should push the rest of the way through by the evening.
213 AM CDT Wed Sep 3 2025 - A cold front will bring (80-90% chance) showers and thunderstorms to central IL this afternoon and evening. - Seasonable temperatures with highs in the low to mid 80s today, but well below normal temps with highs in the upper 60s to mid 70s will be in place tomorrow through the weekend.
Updated at 255 AM CDT Wed Sep 3 2025 - Much drier conditions and warmer temperatures are in store through the end of the week. Otherwise, atmospheric thicknesses will increase as the ridge to the west is displaced farther to the east. As a result, highs top out in the low-to-mid 90s for most of the region (80s in the higher terrain), while lows in the 60s and low 70s are expected areawide.
Meanwhile on land, temperatures have fallen to the expected lows in the lower 80s and hold strong to moist dewpoints in the upper 70s. Recent guidance has it opening up into a broad trough as it shifts northeast throughout today, thus resulting in a somewhat lighter flow than previous runs. That being said, a moderate to fresh westerly surge will still be in the cards on the daily depending on the allowance of daytime heating on mainland and behavior of the low.
By afternoon, vicinity storms are expected to develop on the high terrain as long as skies clear sufficiently beforehand.
1158 PM CDT Tue Sep 2 2025 Updated at 1157 PM CDT Tue Sep 2 2025 - Much drier conditions and warmer temperatures are in store through the end of the week. (This afternoon through Wednesday night) Current satellite imagery and latest RAP analysis shows upper-level ridging building in from the Rockies and Great Basin. This will increase subsidence promoting dry and warmer conditions across the forecast area. Areas across the higher terrain look to reach the upper 70s to mid 80s. A rinse and repeat weather pattern is in store tomorrow as high temperatures will be a degree or two warmer with continued dry conditions, thanks to the upper ridge building in further east. Low temperatures both Wednesday and Thursday mornings span in the upper 50s to lower 70s regionwide with Thursday being the warmer morning.
1205 AM CDT Wed Sep 3 2025 - Dry and warmer weather is expected through this week. (This evening through Wednesday) A dissipating cold front is moving south across our area early this afternoon. With sunny skies Wednesday and a slight increase in 850mb temperatures, highs will be a degree or two warmer than today, and in the lower to mid 90s.
- Cooler temperatures and slightly higher chances for showers/storms return over the weekend. As expected, the 850 mb low that was keeping moisture in the Tri- State area as moved off to the southeast, taking the low-level moisture with it. This is forecast to extend a trough across the Great Plains, pushing a cold front through the CWA. We are expecting another cold front to sweep through the area.
134 AM EDT Wed Sep 3 2025 High pressure along the Atlantic Coast will build eastward as low pressure over Canada drags a cold front across the region Wednesday night into Thursday.
The rather dry start to the month continues with dry northwesterly to westerly flow will remain in place for most of the forecast with a rather stout upper trough firmly planted across the eastern US. Until then the forecast will mainly be a temperature forecast with highs starting off in the upper 80s and slowly climbing into the mid 90s by the end of the week as the upper trough slowly breaks down. With drier air in place, dewpoints will remain lower keeping overnight night lows "cooler" and afternoon heat indices in check. However, as the week progresses on, dewpoints will slowly climb as return flow returns ahead of next weeks trough.
(Today and tonight) Warm and mostly rain-free weather continues through tonight thanks to a dry airmass reinforced by a large upper trough axis draped across the Deep South.
Locations west of the mountains will see warmer and humid weather through Wednesday as well. WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO An inverted trough moving northward brought widespread showers and numerous thunderstorms to the region today. Warmer and more humid weather will continue across the region, with highs well into the 90s in the western valleys and widespread 70s/80s near the coast and in the mountains.
955 PM MDT Tue Sep 2 2025 - Patchy smoke will remain, especially northern areas, but conditions will gradually improve through week and especially the weekend - Warmer temperatures persist through midweek - Showers and storms return later in the week We still expect warmer than average temperatures to continue through Thursday, although we should a very slow drop (1-2 degrees per day) as the ridge breaks down. We will need to watch for daily trends in moisture and the higher resolution models to see if we need to push shower/storm potential to 15% or higher.
- Another cold front expected Thursday with strong winds. WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Northerly flow continues over the region with ridge over the west coast and deep trough to the east. High pressure moving through the northern plains will bring cooler than normal temperatures to northeast Montana. The orientation of the low suggest a mostly dry front, but with cooler temperatures, fire weather conditions are not yet a concern. The remainder of the forecast period has high pressure moving out of the northern Plains by the end of the week, and upper ridge pushing back across the northern Rockies.
(Tonight through Thursday night) The Panhandles will be sandwiched on the western periphery of a longwave trough over the Eastern US, and the eastern periphery of a ridge over the Western US. Temperatures warm into the low to mid- 90s across the Panhandles with the exception of the northeast where temperatures may remain around 90 degrees.
Drier air on the west side of a weak area of low pressure east of Florida has helped limit shower and storm activity through the day.
- Increasing rain chances and turning cooler Wednesday. Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Ridging evident over the Intermountain West this afternoon with broad troughing over the eastern half of the CONUS. As a result, increasing chances for showers, maybe a few rumbles of thunder, and a return to much cooler weather is on tap. Moisture steadily increases late tonight into Wednesday morning in advance of approaching cold front set to trek across northern Michigan during the day. Aside from wet weather, will be a notable return to cooler/fall-like temperatures that really becomes evident Wednesday night and beyond.
Thursday will be a tick warmer, now into the upper 80s to low 90s in more areas.
200 AM EDT Wed Sep 3 2025 High pressure will extend across the area through late week.
A low pressure system off the coast of Central California in bringing in a small amount of moisture and enough lift to lead to the development of thunderstorms this morning, which were fast moving cells that quickly exited our CWA. This results in a mostly Moderate Heat Risk with some areas of Major Heat Risk in the higher elevations of the Valley approaching the foothills on either side of the Valley.
820 AM EDT Wed Sep 3 2025 Temperatures warming to near normal through Thursday ahead of a cold front.
724 AM EDT Wed Sep 3 2025 High pressure will extend across the area through late week.
608 AM EDT Wed Sep 3 2025 High pressure will extend across the area through late week.
553 AM CDT Wed Sep 3 2025 - A cold front will bring (80-90% chance) showers and thunderstorms to central IL this afternoon and evening. - Seasonable temperatures with highs in the low to mid 80s today, but well below normal temps with highs in the upper 60s to mid 70s will be in place tomorrow through the weekend.
606 AM CDT Wed Sep 3 2025 - Weak cold front passes Wed.
515 AM MDT Wed Sep 3 2025 - Lingering precipitation ends today, but smoke remains - Strong dry cold front Thursday brings gusty northwest winds (40-55mph) with elevated fire danger 07z surface analysis had cold front from central NE through the Black Hills into south-central MT, slowly moving southwest. It will drive a strong dry cold front through the CWA during the day, but not before temperatures pop into the 80s ahead it across the southern half of the area.
- Strong cold front passes through Thursday, with wind gusts around 45 mph in its wake.
A few clouds and as frontal boundary stalls across south Florida as upper level trough remains along the Eastern Seaboard. Troughiness is enhanced by Canadian low that pushes across the Great Lakes early on Thursday. Going into the weekend, the U/L low finally slides out as high pressure begins to build at the surface.
554 AM CDT Wed Sep 3 2025 Updated at 553 AM CDT Wed Sep 3 2025 - Much drier conditions and warmer temperatures are in store through the end of the week. Otherwise, atmospheric thicknesses will increase as the ridge to the west is displaced farther to the east. As a result, highs top out in the low-to-mid 90s for most of the region (80s in the higher terrain), while lows in the 60s and low 70s are expected areawide.
500 AM CDT Wed Sep 3 2025 - Temporarily much warmer Wednesday, followed by a weak cold front Wednesday evening.
529 AM EDT Wed Sep 3 2025 High pressure will allow mainly dry and pleasant weather to persist through at least Thursday morning. A cold front is expected to move through Thursday afternoon and evening, which will bring showers and thunderstorms to the area.
1030 AM EDT Wed Sep 3 2025 Ageostrophic jet circulation and associated upper level divergence over the southern Appalachians is working with weak moisture convergence in the low/mid levels to promote continued showers with occasional embedded rumbles of thunder this morning.
709 AM EDT Wed Sep 3 2025 High pressure to the north will maintain cooler weather through tonight. Temperatures gradually increase each day starting Thursday as the high shifts off to the east.
This includes a 30-50% chance for below freezing temperatures in parts of northwest Minnesota Thursday morning. Main upper low is moving south along the Manitoba and Ontario border early this morning. Using NBM probs an area east of Hallock-Crookston-Detroit Lakes-Wadena will see the highest chance of seeing temps 36 or lower (70 pct chance or higher) and 30-50 percent chance of seeing temps 32 or lower. Chance 60 pct in a small area in eastern Marshall county in the bogs there around Agassiz NWR, Goodridge, Gatzke, NW Beltrami county and south Roseau county. Too soon to issue a frost advisory as talking about later tonight and still a few questions in regards to timing of high pressure and most importantly cloud cover.
646 AM EDT Wed Sep 3 2025 (Today and tonight) Warm and mostly rain-free weather continues through tonight thanks to a dry airmass reinforced by a large upper trough axis draped across the Deep South.
- Warmer temperatures persist through Thursday - Showers and storms return later in the week High pressure remains in place over the area with the ridge axis over Idaho, though high pressure is starting to break down or weaken. There is still some lingering valley smoke/haze (AQI in the low 50s) across our area with light smoke moving into the area over the Montana Divide with high pressure starting to break down.
643 AM CDT Wed Sep 3 2025 The rather dry start to the month continues with dry northwesterly to westerly flow will remain in place for most of the forecast with a rather stout upper trough firmly planted across the eastern US. Until then the forecast will mainly be a temperature forecast with highs starting off in the upper 80s and slowly climbing into the mid 90s by the end of the week as the upper trough slowly breaks down. With drier air in place, dewpoints will remain lower keeping overnight night lows "cooler" and afternoon heat indices in check. However, as the week progresses on, dewpoints will slowly climb as return flow returns ahead of next weeks trough.
651 AM EDT Wed Sep 3 2025 High pressure builds off the east coast as low pressure begins to deepen over the northern Great Lakes. The low pressure will move slowly towards the James Bay region dragging a cold front across the area on Thursday.
551 AM CDT Wed Sep 3 2025 - Dry and warmer weather is expected through this week. Expect temperatures in the lower to middle 90s for this afternoon, which is pretty close to normal (96 degrees) for this time of year.
1211 PM CDT Wed Sep 3 2025 - Dry and warmer weather is expected through this week. Expect temperatures in the lower to middle 90s for this afternoon, which is pretty close to normal (96 degrees) for this time of year.
Issued 312 PM CDT Wed Sep 3 2025 Tonight through Thursday night: Clouds will decrease this evening and overnight as high pressure centered to the south clips southern Wisconsin. Quiet weather is expected during the day Thursday, with well below normal high temps in the low to mid 60s. Another round of rain will move through the area Thursday evening into Thursday night as low pressure zips through northern Wisconsin.
(This evening through Thursday) Zonal flow continues through the remainder of Wednesday before giving way to a weak upper level trough early Thursday morning. The marine layer is set to deepen to around 1800-2000 ft by Thursday night as zonal flow gives way to weak upper level troughing.
- Weak cold front passes tonight - Thursday with a chance of showers and storms across northern forecast area.
1253 PM CDT Wed Sep 3 2025 - A cold front will bring (80-90% chance) showers and thunderstorms to central IL this afternoon and evening. - Seasonable temperatures with highs in the low to mid 80s today, but well below normal temps with highs in the upper 60s to mid 70s will be in place tomorrow through the weekend.
224 PM EDT Wed Sep 3 2025 High pressure to the north will maintain control into the middle of the week.
Isolated higher amounts are likely - Another round of cooler and drier air this weekend. This ample sunshine will allow for highs in the low to mid 80s once again. The primary focus in the short term will be on the arrival of scattered to numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms as a cold front pushes through after 23Z this evening. As the night wares on, diurnal cooling in the lowest level will limit overall forcing with the bulk of the forcing attached to the frontal boundary. The cold front will be through much of central Indiana by Thursday afternoon, with afternoon highs capped in the low 70s.
343 PM EDT Wed Sep 3 2025 - Showers and storms to slide east this evening and tonight - Strong winds to sweep through the area Thurs night/Fri morning - Cool weather into the weekend - Showers and storms to slide east this evening and tonight A cold front stretches from Northern Illinois northeastward across Lake Michigan to near Muskegon and up towards Cadillac.
221 PM CDT Wed Sep 3 2025 - Scattered thunderstorms expected this evening along a southward moving cold front. Surface observations show the cold front is beginning to move south from Nebraska into far northeast Kansas. Ahead of the front, sunshine and weak WAA is helping temperatures rise into the low/mid 80s - our warmest day in over 10 days. With dewpoints in the low/mid 60s and mid-level cooling beginning to occur, CIN is weakening just ahead of the boundary. The severe threat should quickly move south of the area by around 9-10 PM, with cooler and drier air steadily moving in. A fast moving upper wave then moves southeast into the main Great Lakes upper low, pushing a secondary cold front through our area Thursday night.