Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
southerly low level flow combined with upper 60s/70+ deg dewpoints and scattered cloud cover over the CWA should aid in low temps again tonight to be near/slightly warmer compared to this morning.
Discussion: We will remain under a broad and flat ridge aloft today. Shear is weak overall and DCAPES are not impressive, so the threat of strong to severe storms looks to be on the low side. A cold front will begin to approach from the northwest later tonight, so after an initial decrease in convection early this evening with loss of heating, northern areas may see an slight uptick in coverage later tonight as the front draws nearer. It will be quite hot today, with temperatures in the lower 90s across most valley locations. These temperatures will combine with dew points in the lower 70s to produce heat index values near or slightly above 100 degrees in many valley areas this afternoon.
1222 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024 (Tonight through Saturday night) An upper-level ridge over Central Texas will slowly lift to the north this weekend, as an inverted mid-level trough moves across the southern Gulf. Heat Advisories may be needed for the eastern counties, however confidence is low on the spatial and temporal coverage of the higher heat index values.
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: The gusty winds and shower activity has diminished with low pressure exiting across North Dakota. Today's cooler than normal temperatures will be brief and surface winds will switch to the southeast bringing a return to seasonable warmth on Sunday.
Storm chances return this evening as a low to the southwest joins forces with the residual troughing from the low passing to the far northeast and a cold front swings through. Thanks to the frontal passage, Sunday will be "cooler" with more normal highs in the 80s. Who could've guessed it: high pressure and intense ridging are back to start the week, and with it the heat.
(Saturday through Sunday) A strengthening upper level ridge over the Southern Plains will continue bring hot and humid conditions to the region today.
The flow will continue to be on the light side, but will favor the E/SE as the ridge axis drifts further north. Daytime highs will hang in the low to mid 90s through most of the week. Winds remain light, but will mostly be E/SE for sites down south, and W/NW for sites further north, as the ridge axis begins to drift north.
Southeast winds are near 10-15 mph with temperatures remaining in the lower 80s at the present hour. For Sunday, low-level winds remain more southeasterly through the day which may allow temperatures to be a degree or two cooler in the afternoon.
Winds are considerably less, temperatures are a few degrees warmer, and the relative humidity is about the same or a little lower than this time yesterday. The trough will move onshore Saturday night and across WA/OR on Sunday. There will be an uptick in winds Saturday, starting in the late afternoon as the inverted surface thermal trough shifts eastward and an onshore flow increases. Forecast soundings near Puget Sound show the marine layer as deep as 800 mb, so confidence is high that cooler air will seep through the Cascade gaps and induce winds in the Kittitas Valley, the eastern CR Gorge, Sisters, and other wind exposed areas in the eastern valleys.
334 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024 - Scattered thunderstorms may redevelop this evening along a cold front, though the probability is low (< 30% chance).
Over the past few hours, winds have become east to southeast and increased as the ridge axis that has been sitting across the area has begun to lift to the north. The ridge axis across our area will continue to lift northward today. As the high lifts, the gradient between this feature and the disturbance in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico will tighten briefly, causing an increase in winds by this afternoon. Model guidance highlight a weak inverted trough that has riding along in the easterlies nearing the east coast of Florida, with deep tropical moisture accompanying it.
The NBM populated with dewpoints on the high side of the guidance envelope and given trends of the last few days it makes sense to keep them on the high side of guidance, at least in the eastern two thirds of the forecast area. The showers and storms in western Kansas north of the cold front are expected to remain north, although outflow enhancement may effectively push the cold front south into the area early before it slows down. The more likely shower/storm development is expected late this afternoon across northern Oklahoma in the vicinity of the cold front working down from Kansas.
232 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024 - Isolated thunderstorms this morning then a bit of a break from active weather as high pressure builds.
While sea breeze and other mesoscale boundaries will continue to be the main drivers for shower and thunderstorm development, the enhanced easterly wind flow will shift the highest chances of convection towards the interior and west coast as the day progresses. Forecast models consistently expand a ridge aloft over the region, which will deepen over the weekend. High temperatures will reach the lower 90s across the east coast metro areas and the mid-90s in the interior portions of Southwest Florida.
Showers and storms linger into Sunday as cold front pushes through.
(Today through Sunday Night) The dominance of our new friend, the upper-level ridge, remains unchallenged as we creep forward into summer. Coastal regions should remain in the lower 90s while our northern counties are closer to high-90s. Minimum temperatures will once again be in the high-70s. Guidance suggests heat indices will remain on the higher end of the range of Heat Advisory criteria (108-112F) in some areas, so please take proper precautions to remain safe during these times.
A ridge of high pressure will be the dominate weather pattern over the Northern Rockies today, with temperatures topping out in the low 80s in the valleys of western Montana, and upper 80s to low 90s in north-central Idaho. A trough of low pressure will re-introduce showers and thunderstorms to the forecast for Sunday, with the highest concentration of rainfall across northwest Montana.
Temperatures in the lower to mid 80s still this evening, with dewpoints ranging from the mid 70s to near 80. 08/DML (Tonight through Sunday night) Aloft, an elongated area of high pressure is centered over Texas, with ridging extending into our area. We also have a ridge centered over the southern Atlantic coast of FL with ridging extending into the central Gulf.
(Today and tonight) The upper-level ridge will be centered over North Texas today which means the heat continues across our forecast area. However, southeast surface winds will actually keep high temperatures a few degrees cooler than yesterday (upper 90s to lower 100s) but it will also transport surface moisture back into the forecast area hence it'll be slightly muggier today as well. Initially a capping inversion around 15,000 feet will keep the area dry however as a weak disturbance lifts north on the west side of the ridge this capping should erode.
1237 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024 (This afternoon through Saturday night) A rather pedestrian forecast continues under the influence of an upper ridge elongated W-E and and centered over the great state of Texas this afternoon. As was the case yesterday, instability this afternoon looks minimal, and CAMs struggle to develop convection over the higher terrain. Saturday, the ridge shifts east, taking the focus off West Texas and Southeast New Mexico. CAMs once again are not very enthusiastic in developing convection Saturday afternoon, keeping better chances west and out from under the ridge. Another LLJ develops Saturday night, but temperatures may come in a couple of degrees cooler than tonight simply because Saturday is not expected to be as warm as today.
Periods of showers and thunderstorms are expected Saturday and Saturday night as a cold front slowly moves through.
High temperatures on Saturday are expected to be a few degrees warmer than today for areas west of the mountains and in the High Desert. High pressure aloft will dominate the weather picture over the West for the foreseeable future. A weak trough to our northwest and a big ridge to our east will jockey for position over SoCal this entire coming week. The ridge will gain the upper hand and bring the hot weather. An Excessive Heat Watch is now in effect for all desert regions, where temps will rise to about 113- 116 in the lower desert, up to 106-109 in the high desert.
(Today) Dangerous heat will begin to build into the Tennessee Valley later today with high pressure just to the east in control of our weather.
(Today through Sunday afternoon) Well, not much to write home about for the short term with a weak, elongated ridge in place from northern Mexico through the southeast US. With the ridge being more displaced and weaker than yesterday (coincident with a weaker low-level thermal ridge), high temperatures will be a few degrees cooler for most, albeit still quite hot.
/NEW/ /Through Sunday/ As high pressure remains the dominant feature, another hot day is expected across our region. Temperatures tomorrow are likely to be 1-2 degrees cooler compared to today with heat index values mostly below 108 degrees. The low ceilings will improve during the late morning hours, leaving behind VFR with continued southerly winds generally below 15 knots.
A cold front is expected to bring slightly cooler and drier conditions to start off the work week, but building high pressure will allow the return of temperatures near the century mark by mid- week. Aloft, upper ridge builds back into the area through the day. Although there will be plenty of moisture, with pwat values above 2 inches, along with moderate instability, the upper ridge may be strong enough as it builds in to limit afternoon rainfall to isolated coverage.
(Today through Sunday night) Perturbations north of the 500 mb ridge are forecast to progress through the High Plains today and parts of tomorrow. The northern Panhandles are favored to lean towards the cooler highs for today since the cold front is forecast to pass through those places before peak heating.
Later in the night, the low level SE flow will spread cloud cover into the southern Valley areas, while northern and central areas will be mostly clear where there is a downslope flow.
1240 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024 (This evening through Saturday) Upper level ridging will remain firmly in control as we head into the weekend. 850mb temperatures, however, are forecast to be a couple degrees cooler on Saturday compared to today.
1232 AM EDT Sat Jun 29 2024 High pressure will cross the region overnight, then slowly exit to the east Saturday. A warm front lifts to the north Saturday night, followed by a cold front crossing the region from Sunday into Sunday night.
- Cooler week ahead before strong ridge and toasty temperatures return for the weekend. Surface cold front currently lays across northern Colorado this morning.
/Issued 1241 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024/ /Through Sunday/ As high pressure remains the dominant feature, another hot day is expected across our region. Temperatures tomorrow are likely to be 1-2 degrees cooler compared to today with heat index values mostly below 108 degrees.
Surface cold front has started to move into north central KS early this afternoon, with the associated trough axis stretching up through eastern NE and western IA. 19Z water vapor imagery shows the upper low spinning well north of us in eastern MT. Subsidence behind this morning's system has allowed skies to clear with heat indices already in the low 100s in a few locations, so will keep the Heat Advisory going until 7pm. The atmosphere should continue to become more unstable the rest of this afternoon, with the higher dew points and therefore highest instability (3000-4000+ J/kg) concentrated over far northeast KS.
1131 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024 A warm night is on the horizon as current temperatures are in the low to mid 80s with light south/southeast winds at the surface under mostly clearly skies across the Mid-South as we sit under amplified mid-level ridging. Tomorrow's afternoon highs will skyrocket into the mid to upper 90s as mid-level ridging continues to build across the region, leading to dangerously hot conditions. The current forecast package is on track AEH Hot conditions will continue through Saturday as ridging continues to amplify over the Mid-South. A cold front will bring increasing rain chances to the region starting Saturday, with the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms across portions of the Missouri Bootheel and northeastern Arkansas.
Southwest Florida will likely see the highest heat index values for the longest amount of time today before convection arrives and/or develops in that portion of southern Florida but the east coast metro could experience heat index values in excess of 105 before the Atlantic sea breeze is able to develop and advance inland later today. While sea breeze and other mesoscale boundaries will continue to be the main drivers for shower and thunderstorm development, the enhanced easterly wind flow will shift the highest chances of convection towards the interior and west coast as the day progresses. Forecast models consistently expand a ridge aloft over the region, which will deepen over the weekend. High temperatures will reach the lower 90s across the east coast metro areas and the mid-90s in the interior portions of Southwest Florida.
Much warmer weather is on tap for this weekend, with today being the warmest of the two. The higher resolution models want to kick of some showers/storms late this afternoon and evening across the central mountains down into the Snake Plain and Magic Valley. The low will pass through the northern US and Canada tomorrow and tomorrow night. The chance of showers and storms will be on the increase, with the highest chances across portions of the central mountains and along the Montana border.
A cold front will move in from the northwest tonight, and then through the remainder of the area on Sunday. Cooler and drier air will return for the beginning of the work week. Our eyes will then turn to a cold front which will advance into our area from the northwest. Lows will range from the mid 60s northwest to the lower 70s southeast. On Sunday, the cold front will pass southeast through the remainder of the region (southern/eastern zones). Northwest to northerly flow will begin to advect drier and cooler air southward.
Temperatures north of Highway 50 should be notably cooler this afternoon with highs in the 80s to near 90. Immediately behind the frontal zone (generally along Highway 400), boundary layer mixing will be greatly reduced with dew point values likely to surge back into the low-mid 70s.
538 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024 - Scattered thunderstorms may redevelop this evening along a cold front, though the probability is low (< 30% chance).
832 AM MDT Sat Jun 29 2024 Dry and seasonable weather is expected today as high pressure moves through the area. Warmer and drier weather returns for the Independence Day weekend. Tranquil and noticeably warmer weather is expected today as a transient upper level ridge slides across the Northwestern US. With this ridge and southwesterly flow aloft, temperatures will rise into the 70s across the Plains, while some of the Southwestern Valleys will reach the low 80s under mostly clear skies.
553 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024 (Today) Dangerous heat will begin to build into the Tennessee Valley later today with high pressure just to the east in control of our weather.
938 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024 - Isolated thunderstorms this morning then a bit of a break from active weather as high pressure builds.
The high pressure sitting across our region will weaken a bit. This means slightly cooler temperatures for this weekend by a couple of degrees.
632 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024 (Today and tonight) The upper-level ridge will be centered over North Texas today which means the heat continues across our forecast area. However, southeast surface winds will actually keep high temperatures a few degrees cooler than yesterday (upper 90s to lower 100s) but it will also transport surface moisture back into the forecast area hence it'll be slightly muggier today as well. Initially a capping inversion around 15,000 feet will keep the area dry however as a weak disturbance lifts north on the west side of the ridge this capping should erode.
The last weekend of June will be active as a pair of upper air disturbances move across the area with high pressure situated to our east over west Texas.
515 AM MDT Sat Jun 29 2024 Aviation Section Update Dry and seasonable weather is expected today as high pressure moves through the area. Warmer and drier weather returns for the Independence Day weekend. Tranquil and noticeably warmer weather is expected today as a transient upper level ridge slides across the Northwestern US. With this ridge and southwesterly flow aloft, temperatures will rise into the 70s across the Plains, while some of the Southwestern Valleys will reach the low 80s under mostly clear skies.
728 AM EDT Sat Jun 29 2024 (12Z TAFS) With the ridge axis overhead, a light and variable background wind flow is in place. The flow will continue to be on the light side, but will favor the E/SE as the ridge axis drifts further north. Daytime highs will hang in the low to mid 90s through most of the week.
(Today through Sunday) A 500mb ridge over Central Texas will slowly lift to the north through the weekend, as an inverted mid-level trough moves over the southern Gulf. At the surface, high pressure will continue to prevail across the northern Gulf of Mexico through Sunday. A broad area of low pressure near the eastern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula this morning and is expected to emerge and propagate westward over the Bay of Campeche through the short term.
628 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024 (Today through Sunday) A 500mb ridge over Central Texas will slowly lift to the north through the weekend, as an inverted mid-level trough moves over the southern Gulf. At the surface, high pressure will continue to prevail across the northern Gulf of Mexico through Sunday. A broad area of low pressure near the eastern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula this morning and is expected to emerge and propagate westward over the Bay of Campeche through the short term.
451 AM MDT Sat Jun 29 2024 Dry and seasonable weather is expected today as high pressure moves through the area. Warmer and drier weather returns for the Independence Day weekend. Tranquil and noticeably warmer weather is expected today as a transient upper level ridge slides across the Northwestern US. With this ridge and southwesterly flow aloft, temperatures will rise into the 70s across the Plains, while some of the Southwestern Valleys will reach the low 80s under mostly clear skies.
High temperatures this afternoon will generally rise into the lower 90s across the east coast metro areas and into the mid 90s across interior portions of Southwest Florida. While sea breeze and other mesoscale boundaries will continue to be the main drivers for shower and thunderstorm development, the enhanced easterly wind flow will shift the highest chances of convection towards the interior and west coast as the day progresses. Forecast models consistently expand a ridge aloft over the region, which will deepen over the weekend. High temperatures will reach the lower 90s across the east coast metro areas and the mid-90s in the interior portions of Southwest Florida.
636 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024 (Today through Sunday Night) The dominance of our new friend, the upper-level ridge, remains unchallenged as we creep forward into summer. Coastal regions should remain in the lower 90s while our northern counties are closer to high-90s. Minimum temperatures will once again be in the high-70s. Guidance suggests heat indices will remain on the higher end of the range of Heat Advisory criteria (108-112F) in some areas, so please take proper precautions to remain safe during these times.
Satellite imagery and surface observations reveal a weakness in the low- level ridging from near the northern Bahamas to offshore the Space Coast. There is a west-east gradient in the SFC winds across the Keys as the low-level easterlies accelerate into AL94 moving west into the Bay of Campeche. Breezes will freshen today as the gradient between a disturbance in the southwestern Gulf and a North Atlantic ridge tightens briefly.
615 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024 (Saturday through Sunday) A strengthening upper level ridge over the Southern Plains will continue bring hot and humid conditions to the region today.
556 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024 (Today through Sunday afternoon) Well, not much to write home about for the short term with a weak, elongated ridge in place from northern Mexico through the southeast US. With the ridge being more displaced and weaker than yesterday (coincident with a weaker low-level thermal ridge), high temperatures will be a few degrees cooler for most, albeit still quite hot.
Best chances (30-50%) will be east of I-65 along the western periphery of high pressure.
Hernandez Previous Discussion: /Through Sunday/ As high pressure remains the dominant feature, another hot day is expected across our region. Temperatures tomorrow are likely to be 1-2 degrees cooler compared to today with heat index values mostly below 108 degrees.
624 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024 - Isolated thunderstorms this morning then a bit of a break from active weather as high pressure builds.
(12Z TAFS) With the ridge axis overhead, a light and variable background wind flow is in place.
- Despite slightly cooler temperatures this afternoon, the humidity remains high with heat index values between 100-105 degrees over sections of southeast Missouri.
Isolated showers will develop across eastern Central Texas this afternoon, but strong subsidence from a mid-level ridge should keep the coverage/chance of storms at or below 10%. Little change in the local pattern tonight will result in another warm night with overnight lows in the low 80s to upper 70s, or 5-10 degrees above average. There are low precip chances late tonight and tomorrow as a cold front moves south across the Central Plains. The "cooler" air behind the cold front is not expected to move across the Red River, however the front will be a trigger for thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon to our north. We don't expect storms to move much further south than highway 380 due to the dominance of the mid-level ridge.
1011 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024 - Scattered thunderstorms may redevelop this evening along a cold front, though the probability is low (< 30% chance).
355 PM EDT Sat Jun 29 2024 Bermuda high pressure will continue to dominate our weather through the weekend.
Storm chances continue overnight, especially across northern Oklahoma, to account for remnant activity exiting the high plains (though this is looking less likely as the afternoon wears on). Momentum from the reinforcing cold front, along cold pools resulting from thunderstorms, should push the stationary boundary towards central oklahoma very gradually this evening into tonight. High temperatures for far northern Oklahoma could only rise into the low/mid-80's with upper 80's and low 90's across central Oklahoma.
With humidity returned to the area combined with a narrow ridge, heat indices will be steamy tomorrow afternoon.
1242 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024 (Today and tonight) The upper-level ridge will be centered over North Texas today which means the heat continues across our forecast area. However, southeast surface winds will actually keep high temperatures a few degrees cooler than yesterday (upper 90s to lower 100s) but it will also transport surface moisture back into the forecast area hence it'll be slightly muggier today as well. Initially a capping inversion around 15,000 feet will keep the area dry however as a weak disturbance lifts north on the west side of the ridge this capping should erode.
The cold front is expected to bring slightly cooler and drier conditions to start off the work week, but building high pressure will allow the return of temperatures near the century mark by mid- week.
Best chances for additional rain will be east of I-65 on the western periphery of high pressure.