Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Overall atmospheric moisture has decreased across the region as the low over southern California pulls dry air north, but enough moisture remains over the southern Great Basin, eastern Sierra, and northwestern Arizona to fuel convection this afternoon.
123 AM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025 Upper ridging settles in across the region this weekend with light flow aloft. Gradually, the ridge shifts to the north/northwest allowing for increasing northeasterly to easterly flow aloft to become established by mid to late week.
Ridging has started to build, bringing a shallower marine layer and starting a short warming trend for the interior.
(Today and tonight) Upper ridge builds north today, dominating the weather across much of the southern Plains. Meanwhile, veered low level flow will bring in warmer air from the west and abundant sunshine will result in an additional degree or two to afternoon highs today compared to Friday.
(Today) Throughout the day today high pressure will continue to retrograde across the FL Peninsula. While it will undoubtedly be incredibly humid outside with dew points forecast in the high 70s, temperatures look to increase significantly as we head into the next work week so enjoy the slightly cooler temps while they last.
Upper level analysis and water vapor imagery show an expanding area of upper level high pressure across the southern U. The upper level ridge will begin to expand slightly northward today and we should see afternoon temperatures rise into the mid 90s for most locations. Afternoon and early evening heat index values will be in the upper 90s to around 109 degrees with the highest HI values in the eastern Ozarks. Nighttime lows are only going to dip into the low to mid 70s across the area.
237 AM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025 Today and tonight: Ridging surface and aloft will increase over our region from the southeast through the period. This will result in less coverage of convection and warmer temperatures over much of the CWA. Our northeast will see lower temperatures due to the higher rain chances and associated cloud cover.
A broad mid level high pressure system currently over the eastern Gulf and over Florida, will shift west over the weekend. Models indicate a few weak short waves tracking around the western periphery of the high that will track across S TX over the weekend.
Upper ridging settles in across the region this weekend with light flow aloft. Gradually, the ridge shifts to the north/northwest allowing for increasing northeasterly to easterly flow aloft to become established by mid to late week.
Today will be slightly cooler, with high temperatures below normal, but dry and breezy conditions will persist.
WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO After the tstm activity from yesterday afternoon, conditions have begun to dry out as the upper low moved north and is now roughly centered over San Diego County. The marine layer has begun to assert itself this morning as the upper low moves almost directly over San Diego County and the sub-tropical high has shifted eastward over TX.
Models have slowed or stopped wanting to eject the low to the northeast across the region to thereby maintain the moist flow yet another day or two. Dew points in southern Arizona are down into the low 50's and upper 40's indicating the moisture isn't as deep as it was yesterday, but models seem to be going overboard mostly dropping the probability of precipitation across the region below 10% with the exception of along the Divide and in the Uintas. A weak jet streak overhead lends support for convection over the higher terrain from southeastern Utah up through central and northern Colorado. It's a great time to get out and enjoy the area, but exercise extra care to prevent fires as conditions remain critically dry, especially in the lower elevations. Although the high terrain can expect isolated to scattered showers and storms.
But an upper low over British Columbia will drop a bit today that will help destabilize things over eastern Montana. With the warm unstable airmass over the region, especially in the east, and a weak trough crossing the state today to provide focus for stronger thunderstorm development this afternoon, SPC outlook has updated to slight risk over the eastern zones today and tonight. Dewpoints in the 60s are expected to linger over the eastern zones Sunday but surface boundary may push into western ND while the upper low provides decent upper level shear/dynamics.
540 AM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025 (Today) Throughout the day today high pressure will continue to retrograde across the FL Peninsula. While it will undoubtedly be incredibly humid outside with dew points forecast in the high 70s, temperatures look to increase significantly as we head into the next work week so enjoy the slightly cooler temps while they last.
602 AM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025 Updated at 602 AM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025 - Temperatures continue to warm up today and Sunday as upper- level ridging builds. (Today through Sunday afternoon) WV imagery this morning shows the upper ridge centered over the Gulf Coast states, the western influence of which extends all the way to West Texas and Southeast New Mexico.
Otherwise, it will remain quiet overnight with lows in the low/mid 70s and a continued south wind. Highs areawide should range from the lower 90s in Central TX to the upper 90s farther north and west. Modest afternoon mixing will continue to result in dewpoints falling to the low/mid 60s which will keep heat indices right around 100 degrees. /Issued 1229 AM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025/ /Sunday Night through Saturday/ The upcoming week will feature hot and dry conditions typical for this time of year as an expansive ridge over the mid-Mississippi Valley begins to spread westward a bit. Afternoon convection will be displaced well to our west through the week around the periphery of the ridge with little chance for rainfall in North Texas.
Rain and storm chances will be on the low side, so will hold PROB30 -TSRA at only LAL between 23-01Z.
631 AM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025 Today and tonight: Ridging surface and aloft will increase over our region from the southeast through the period. This will result in less coverage of convection and warmer temperatures over much of the CWA.
Broad upper level ridging continues to intensify over the region leading to very low precipitation chances and hot conditions. High temps today will be similar or slightly warmer than yesterday.
SE AZ this morning was between an upper low near San Diego and an upper high near Dallas. Further south there was an inverted trof over the Mexican states of Durango and Sinaloa. Highs slightly cooler than today.
Discussion: A stationary boundary is currently over Kentucky, this boundary will lift north today as low pressure moves into the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes. and a ridge is centered over the Southeast U. The pattern will be almost the same for Sunday, with weak troughing over the Ohio Valley and a lingering surface boundary over the Ohio Valley.
There may be some brief light or sprinkly showers in the Austin area and northern Hill Country near the core of this remnant vortex late morning to afternoon today, but the broader ridging across the region and a drier undercutting southwesterly flow is expected to keep shower coverage and intensity sparser and lighter. For most, the main effect of this passerby system for Saturday will be the presence of a mid- level cloud deck during the day mainly north of Interstate 10, with high clouds elsewhere as northwesterly flow from an upper-trough in the Gulf shears off cirrus towards the Rio Grande.
/EC/ Today and tonight: Ridging surface and aloft will increase over our region from the southeast through the period. This will result in less coverage of convection and warmer temperatures over much of the CWA.
(Today and tonight) Upper ridge builds north today, dominating the weather across much of the southern Plains.
While clouds can be seen on satellite and current observations demonstrate 24-hour temperature changes of 5 to 15 degrees cooler, dry conditions and breezy west winds will combine to produce near critical fire weather.
Dry conditions return overnight as low temperatures drop into the low to mid 70s.
(Rest of today and tonight) A 594 to 596 dam mid-level ridge is centered across the southern/southeastern U. Nevertheless, high to extreme risk heat risk is expected across east central/southeast Oklahoma this afternoon where the dew points will be the highest and the winds the lightest.
The clouds will keep temperatures a few degrees cooler, with highs in the lower 90s south of the I-20 corridor.
136 PM MDT Sat Jul 19 2025 - Breezy conditions continue for the next few days - Critical fire weather conditions again Sunday and beyond - Potential for isolated dry thunderstorms early on in the week Gusty winds have developed as forecast due to the cold front crossing central and eastern Idaho. We are hitting the low end of LAKE WIND ADVISORY territory for American Falls, and will leave that in place through 8pm. We do have some isolated dry storms possible along the Montana border, but that could be a more widespread issue based on what the higher resolution models are showing.
Otherwise, daytime highs will be significantly dampened along the coast with a persistent marine layer as it compresses beneath high pressure.
1238 PM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025 Updated at 1238 PM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025 - Temperatures continue to warm up today and Sunday as upper- level ridging builds. (Today through Sunday afternoon) WV imagery this morning shows the upper ridge centered over the Gulf Coast states, the western influence of which extends all the way to West Texas and Southeast New Mexico.
Broad upper level ridging extends over Florida and the southeast U. On the surface, high pressure northeast of the Bahamas ridges westward over Florida. This high pressure will bring in some slightly drier air as well, which will limit rain and storm coverage through the weekend.
The upper level flow pattern remains southerly to southeasterly as we are broadly sandwiched between an elongated, strengthening upper high stretched over the south central plains and a weak upper low over southern California. On the other hand, the upper high centered over the souther plains did cause some warmer air to reside in the midlevels yesterday which choked off initial thunderstorms that formed over the terrain. Even modestly cooler air in the midlevel today could help make the difference in storm development. SE AZ this morning was between an upper low near San Diego and an upper high near Dallas. Further south there was an inverted trof over the Mexican states of Durango and Sinaloa. Highs slightly cooler than today.
(This evening through Sunday) A weak 500mb low/inverted trough across central Texas this afternoon will move little tonight into Sunday.
Winds will peak this afternoon, with the highest values experienced at KDLS/KPDT.
(Rest of today through Sunday) We are under a good deal of cloud cover this morning, resulting in slightly cooler temperatures than we've experienced at this time of day recently. Most of Middle TN is in the low 80s this morning with VERY muggy conditions. Sunday will feature a slight shift in our upper air pattern as ridging aloft amplifies, leading to hotter temperatures.
A troughing pattern will take over into the end of the week, bringing temperatures near average at the coast and below average for inland areas. The low will stay rather stationary but weaken further into tomorrow.
Upper level ridging will remain predominant over the region this coming week, resulting in subsidence and gradually warming temperatures throughout the forecast period. Confidence of precip was not high enough to include in the TAF package as ongoing convection appears to be falling apart with high pressure in place.
This is causing flash flooding issues due to the high PWATs leading to heavy rainfall.
Overnight lows will continue to range in the low to mid-70s, with highs on Sunday generally ranging in the low to mid-90s.
After the tstm activity from yesterday afternoon, conditions have begun to dry out as the upper low moved north and is now roughly centered over San Diego County. The marine layer has begun to assert itself this morning as the upper low moves almost directly over San Diego County and the sub-tropical high has shifted eastward over TX.
- While isolated showers and storms are expected this afternoon, high-pressure system will remain over the region, leading to a more stable and scorching pattern.
(This evening through Sunday) A weak 500mb low/inverted trough across central Texas this afternoon will move little tonight into Sunday. (Sunday night through next Saturday) Once the weak inverted trough noted across central Texas shifts west and eventually dissipates, upper level ridging across the Lower Mississippi River Valley will dominate the weather pattern across West Central Texas.
140 PM MDT Sat Jul 19 2025 - Temperatures trend cooler through the first half of the upcoming work week before moderating thereafter.
102 PM EDT Sat Jul 19 2025 Warm and muggy tonight as the region remains under the influence of ridging aloft.
19Z water vapor imagery showed upper ridging over the southeast nosing into the southern plains while the westerlies remained across the northern plains. Surface obs showed an area of relative low pressure over the CO high plains with an inverted trough extending through southeast NEB and into southern IA. The prolong period of heat remains the main concern with the forecast and there is not much from the 12Z models showing a cooler solution.
Temperature today will be right around normal (leaning a couple degrees below normal), with lower elevations temperatures making it to around the low to mid-90s.
This has led to shower and thunderstorms development, mainly across the higher terrain, east into the Palmer Divide and southern I-25 corridor. expect showers and thunderstorms to continue developing across the higher terrain, Palmer Divide and Raton Mesa through this evening. Lows tonight will drop into the upper 50s to lower 60s for much of the lower elevations, while the San Luis Valley drops into the 40s. upper level ridging is forecast to build northward across Colorado through the afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms are still expected to develop by mid day across the higher terrain.
u Low pressure to the west is helping to drive the uptick in convection over the lake and will pull a weak cold front south through the cwa around 06z.
Otherwise, muggy conditions persist through the night with low temperatures in the lower to middle 70s. 500mb ridging will be centered just to our south on Sunday. While budding cumulus clouds could give rise to a shower or thunderstorm just about anywhere, guidance is highligting the northern-half of the state as having the best potential for isolated to scattered activity associated with a subtle ripple rounding the ridge.
Monsoonal moisture peaked yesterday and mid-level southerly flow has subsided as the low to the south travels to the east. Otherwise, a weak troughing pattern will yield quiet weather over the next several days, with temperatures mostly below normal and trending slightly downward each day.
748 PM EDT Sat Jul 19 2025 Warm and muggy tonight as the region remains under the influence of ridging aloft.
640 PM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025 (Tonight) Cooler today than it was yesterday with highs reaching the upper 50s to lower 60s. A reinforcing cold front is pushing through the TN Valley at this hour with westerly winds gusting ahead of it and northwesterly winds also gusting 20-25kts behind it. Northwesterly winds aloft will also push in some cooler air as the base of an upper level trough moves on out. Combined with drier air filtering in, decreasing cloud cover overnight will drop lows into the lower 30s. Yep, that's right, freezing temperatures are expected tonight so bundle up tonight and for the bus stop in the morning.
A few snow showers are possible early Monday before high pressure returns dry and warmer weather to the region through mid week. Later on, cold advection will ramp up after a reinforcing cold front crosses the region. No more than a dusting is forecast in most cases, though an inch or less is possible across the higher terrain areas.
Remaining convection will exit our area to the south and east overnight with cooler drier air filtering into the state. Dry conditions coupled with breezy conditions on Monday may lead to some fire weather concerns, otherwise cooler temps are expected with Monday afternoon highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s followed by Monday night lows dropping into the 40s to near 50 degrees.
557 PM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025 - It will be much warmer on Monday, though humidity will be very low.
604 PM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025 Updated at 602 PM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025 - Cooler and drier air will continue to filter into the Mid-South tonight. Temperatures are expected to drop into the lower to middle 30s across many locations tonight.
A significant warm up is in store on Monday as another area of low pressure begins to develop across the Central Plains to Upper Midwest.
400 AM EDT Mon Mar 17 2025 A cold front will move east and offshore early today. Chilly high pressure will build into the region later today and tonight.
314 AM EDT Mon Mar 17 2025 A cold front will slowly push offshore this morning with high pressure returning into mid week bringing dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures.
445 AM EDT Mon Mar 17 2025 Drier and cooler conditions are expected today with just a few lingering rain showers.
322 AM EDT Mon Mar 17 2025 (Today through Tuesday) Low pressure is currently centered across southern VA and is moving NE along yesterday's frontal boundary. High pressure will build in from the west today. Pressure gradient at the surface will be tight during the early part of the day as the high builds in from the west and the low departs off the Delmarva Peninsula. Lighter winds are expected on Tuesday as the high pressure center currently along the Gulf Coast moves overhead. Not only will there be high pressure ridging at the surface but also in the mid levels through the remainder of the short term period.
337 AM EDT Mon Mar 17 2025 High pressure cross the region today and into tonight will create drier and cooler temperatures through tonight before warming again on Tuesday with southerly flow.
Pattern Synopsis and Forecast: Low pressure system departs to the northeast tonight as west flow aloft becomes more established. High pressure shifts to the east, decaying low pressure across the Plains/Upper Midwest, thus winds will shift southerly. Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Longwave troughing will continue to shift eastward as a ridge of high pressure builds into the Great Lakes region at the start of the period. A low pressure looks to track across the Plains to the Great Lakes region by mid-week. Tightening pressure gradients, especially on the backside of the low, also suggest windy/gusty conditions will be possible.
Temps have dropped into the 40s for most of the area with a few locations in the lower 50s and even a few in the upper 30s. With our trough axis having pushed off to the east we will remain under northwest flow but this will quickly flatten out tonight as ridging aloft builds in. LL temps will inch up a degree or two and with that highs which will generally range from near 70 into the mid 70s today with Tuesday ranging from the lower 70s to upper 70s tomorrow.
(This evening through Monday) Northwest flow aloft tonight will back to the west on Monday as low amplitude mid/upper level ridging moves overhead tomorrow. The lee trough across eastern New Mexico will strengthen early Monday as the mid level ridge axis shifts to the east.
306 AM EDT Mon Mar 17 2025 A ridge of high pressure will build in from the Great Lakes early this week.
303 AM EDT Mon Mar 17 2025 High pressure will settle into the region today, providing dry conditions through midweek.
A potent cold front is right on the doorstep to the Florida Keys this morning and is looking to sweep away our prevailing calm and humid conditions. Due to the cooler and drier air mass being advected into our CWA from the northwest, current temperatures across the island chain in the mid 70s are about as high as we will see today. Dewpoints will have the potential to drop into the 40s as well making for a much cooler and drier start to the week. Near nil rain chances and fairly pleasant temperatures will continue through the midweek as high pressure shifts over the Eastern Seaboard to take control of the pattern.
- There is a 20 percent chance for a light glaze of ice due to light freezing rain just south of the main area of snow between Highway 2 and Highway 200.
Light snow will continue through possibly mid morning in the highest elevations of near 3000 feet or higher. Much cooler today with highs in the 50s. Discussion: In the upper levels, a deep trough is over the East Coast today and a broad ridge is over the Central U. Ridging and high pressure centered near the Gulf Coast will be moving into the region today. With northerly flow, temps will be cooler with highs in the 50s today. Clouds will be clearing out by late afternoon as the trough moves eastward and ridging builds in.
Be sure to add some extra layers when heading out the door this morning! As high pressure filters in from the west, dry weather will continue through the Tennessee Valley. As previously mentioned, it will be a chilly start to the morning with early morning temperatures bottoming out in the lower 30s. Behind the exiting trough, breezy northwesterly winds will filter in cooler and drier air. As the ridge builds into the region, winds will slack Monday night before turning southerly on Tuesday. The southerly winds combined with the amplification of the ridge on Tuesday will warm highs back into the lower 70s.
pdf Lingering showers ahead of cold front will diminish this evening. Lows will range from the middle 40s inland to the lower 50s east coast and north central FL. Skies become Sunny with much cooler airmass continuing to stream in on gusty Northwest winds at 15-25 mph with gusts to 30-35 mph at times through the day. Max temps will be below normal with highs generally in the lower 60s for SE GA and middle 60s for NE FL. Near normal temperatures and clear skies are forecast for Tuesday as High pressure settles in, with northeasterly winds keeping the coastal areas a bit cooler, with highs in the upper 60s and lows in the 40s.
Cooler temperatures persist through the rest of the week with on-and-off again weather patterns. Today through Tuesday Active weather pattern over Nevada as a band of showers moves in from the northwest, heading southeast, bringing in increase chances of mixed precipitation along the front as temperatures start in the 30s to 40s for northern Nevada and 50s to 60s for central Nevada, then transition to snow behind the wave as temperatures quickly cool below freezing in the evening. Chances for snow showers continue as the low pressure trough continues east, leaving some lingering showers across eastern Nevada Tuesday morning and dissipating by the afternoon. The cold front will help bring overnight lows down into the teens to 20s with highs Tuesday also much cooler into the 30s to low 40s.
A few snow showers are possible early Monday before high pressure returns dry and warmer weather to the region through mid week. Later on, cold advection will ramp up after a reinforcing cold front crosses the region. No more than a dusting is forecast in most cases, though an inch or less is possible across the higher terrain areas. - Dry and warmer Tuesday ------------------------------------------------------------------- Dry weather and a clearing trend is then expected Monday afternoon through Tuesday night as high pressure builds across the region.
101 AM EDT Mon Mar 17 2025 High pressure will settle into the region tonight through Monday, providing dry conditions through midweek.
354 AM EDT Mon Mar 17 2025 Passage of a cold upper level trough today will result in temperatures for this afternoon into tonight that are near to below normal for mid-March.