Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Temperatures are running 3-7 degree warmer than last night this time and we will see lows in the upper 60s to low 70s. (Rest of today through Friday) Hot and dry weather will remain the headline through Friday as a ridge of high pressure stretches over the region. Dewpoints climb slightly higher on Friday from upper 60s to low 70s on Friday making those feel like temperatures slightly warmer Friday afternoon.
GOES water vapor imagery showed scattered cirrus moving in an anti-cyclonic fashion, consistent with upper level ridging. Temperatures were in the upper 70s to lower 80s, or 1 to 2 degrees warmer than 24 hours previous. PWB Hot and dry conditions will affect the region over the next couple of days as high pressure prevails across the Mid-South.
556 PM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024 (Tonight) A fairly widespread cumulus deck has kept temperatures a bit cooler than expected so far today. This cumulus field should dissipate quickly after sunset, as a large area of high pressure to our northeast continues to build southwest into the area. Not going too far below guidance for lows given a weak pre-frontal trough axis may be able to focus an axis of higher low level moisture into the center of the ridge south into the area near and west of the I-65 corridor.
Mid and high clouds this evening due to a weak short wave trough aloft moving eastward across the area. The trough will briefly slow the warming trend with Friday only about 3 degrees warmer than today.
Meanwhile, a broad ridge over the eastern US continues to build southwest over the region. Despite quite a bit of CU/TCU development around the area this afternoon, decent insolation has enabled temperatures to climb to around 90 degrees or into the lower 90s.
910 PM EDT Thu Jun 20 2024 High pressure aloft will settle from the Middle Atlantic and OH Valley southward and across the Southeast through this weekend.
727 PM EDT Thu Jun 20 2024 The heat wave continues through the week courtesy of a broad upper level ridge.
A low to medium chance of showers and storms will remain in the forecast through Friday followed by drier conditions into Friday night as ridging aloft begins to take a hold from the east. The threat of coastal flooding remains really high through the high tide cycles tonight and Friday, with another round of 2 to almost 4 feet inundation possible along area beaches.
727 PM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024 Hi-res global guidance continues to highlight high pressure sfc ridging across much of the southeast CONUS. The higher rain chances will remain along the southern Gulf coast as guidance shows Tropical Storm Alberto moving westward across central Mexico. Expect overnight lows to drop into the low 70s areawide. Dry/quiet conditions are expected tomorrow for most of the area as high pressure ridging continues to push the drier airmass across the southeast CONUS. The combination of high pressure ridging and a persistent dry airmass will keep our weather relatively dry through the end of this week.
645 PM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024 (This evening through Friday) An upper-level ridge is currently centered over the ArkLaTex and is expected to build westward towards our forecast area through the short term period. Expect seasonable temperatures tomorrow, with most areas 5-10 degrees warmer than today's highs.
(Tonight through Friday) High pressure will be in control through the short-term period/Friday. Dew points Friday afternoon should average in the lower to middle 60s, which will keep heat indices in check though it'll still be hot with high temperatures in the lower to middle 90s.
High pressure translating west across the area will suppress winds to near calm and erode cloud cover after the sun sets. Current forecast brings temps down to the high 60s to low 70s. The arrival of slightly lower dew points with the easterly flow associated with high pressure should limit wide spread fog development.
952 PM EDT Thu Jun 20 2024 A cold front will exit the area late tonight and will be followed by high pressure on Friday.
This is resulting in widespread sunny skies with a warm afternoon over inland areas with the cool Pacific waters and marine layer providing much cooler conditions along the coast. Most places are about 3-5 degrees higher than this time yesterday and will end up in the low to mid 80s over the east side and in the upper 80s to low 90s in the west side valleys. The weather pattern won't change much over the next couple of days, but heights will continue to rise with weak short wave upper ridging traversing the area.
Low chances of showers and possibly a thunderstorm, mainly south of I-10, given the warm highs in the lower 90s and PWATs to near 1.
728 PM EDT Thu Jun 20 2024 A cold front will exit the area this evening and will be followed by high pressure on Friday.
610 PM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024 Hot and dry conditions will affect the region over the next couple of days as high pressure prevails across the Mid-South.
715 PM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024 (Rest of today through Friday) Hot and dry weather will remain the headline through Friday as a ridge of high pressure stretches over the region. Dewpoints climb slightly higher on Friday from upper 60s to low 70s on Friday making those feel like temperatures slightly warmer Friday afternoon.
Current infrared and water vapor satellite imagery show an upper- level trough slowly moving inland along the West Coast. This trough will continue to move inland before lifting northeast through southern Nevada into southwestern Utah tomorrow. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible across northern Mohave County as this trough lifts through the region tomorrow afternoon. While this trough is moving through the area, Tropical Depression Alberto will have traversed Mexico and entered the Gulf of California.
600 PM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024 (This evening through Friday) Slightly warmer on Friday with isolated showers/storms Southeasterly flow continues to advect moisture into the area, and the 12Z OUN sounding resembles that of a tropical profile with improved, deeper moistening of the atmospheric column (up to around 500mb) compared to the observation from last evening. Clouds should lessen in coverage throughout the day tomorrow, and result in slightly warmer temperatures, with low 90's expected for most areas and mid-90's for the post-harvest wheat belt that extends from northwest into north- central Oklahoma.
Temperatures will rise 10 to 15 degrees above average this weekend with widespread triple digit afternoon highs across the lower elevations.
CAPE values of 1500-2000 J/kg along with dewpoints in the low 70s should result in some scattered thunderstorms developing this afternoon, mainly from the Concho Valley southward.
Unfortunately, this won't last much longer as an intense upper high to our east quickly builds west. Scattered storms are still expected across the higher terrain given continued moist, upslope flow and daytime heating.
1222 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024 (This evening through Saturday) H500 ridging to the east of the area will expand west over the state Fri-Sat.
1254 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024 Hi-res global guidance continues to highlight high pressure sfc ridging across much of the southeast CONUS. The higher rain chances will remain along the southern Gulf coast as guidance shows Tropical Storm Alberto moving westward across central Mexico. Expect overnight lows to drop into the low 70s areawide. Dry/quiet conditions are expected tomorrow for most of the area as high pressure ridging continues to push the drier airmass across the southeast CONUS. The combination of high pressure ridging and a persistent dry airmass will keep our weather relatively dry through the end of this week.
Another couple days of gross heat is on tap today and tomorrow as high pressure aloft is maximized. We're currently advertising 96 at BNA today, which is reasonable, but with the ridge directly overhead, I could easily see a couple more degrees. Heat Index values will hover around 100 degrees with a few spots expected to reach into the low triple digits over the next several days. Tiny PoPs are warranted both days, but coverage should be pretty limited due to ridging influences.
While at the same time, a trough over the Great Basin begins to lift into the Northern Rockies today and high pressure builds into the southwest from the east. 00 UTC HREF guidance has around 800-1200 J/Kg of surface-based CAPE over much of the area, with the highest amounts most likely near the AZ/UT border. Given the influence of the trough, 0-6km bulk shear looks to increase today, with 35-45 kts expected near the AZ/UT border.
Afternoon highs Friday will warm into the upper 80s to the lower 90s, which is near or slightly below normal for this time of year. Subsidence under a building ridge aloft will keep Friday through the weekend rain-free with a warming trend. /NEW/ /Saturday Onward/ Over the next several days, the upper ridge will propagate westward from its current location across the Ohio Valley, eventually taking up residence over the Desert Southwest by midweek.
Weak high pressure is feeding cooler low-level air into northern MI. Will continue to have the highest pops late tonight (toward or after dawn) between M-32 and the Straits. Additionally, ridge across the southeast shifts slightly to the south on Friday, with a mid level perturbation pushing into the middle portions of the country later on Friday. Low pressure associated with this disturbance will be the feature of focus this weekend. The upper level ridge is still shown to eventually retrograde westward which will set up shop to our southwest. At the same time, northern stream short waves top the ridge and move across the area.
- Heat continues into Saturday The low level thermal ridge remains over the southern and central zones into Saturday.
Temperatures continue to slowly climb through the day tomorrow with highs in the low to mid 90s.
At the upper levels, a longwave trough is positioned along the western CONUS with high pressure over the east coast, creating a southwest flow pattern across the Northern Plains. At the surface, there is an area of low pressure to the southwest, with high pressure off to the northeast. This is resulting in weak easterly upslope flow across the SD Plains, locking the low clouds into place over most of the area. Cool, moist airmass continues over the region Friday, and temperatures will be only slightly warmer than today. Buoyancy will increase across the warmer areas of northeastern WY and southern SD again, and as a more potent wave approaches Friday afternoon. The weather will begin to feel more like summer this weekend, as a ridge begins to build over the Rockies.
(Today) Upper level ridging centered from the mid south region extends back to the west and across the southern plains.
(Friday through Saturday) Quiet weather remains in the forecast to start our weekend, as upper-level ridging slightly bulks up to our east. Given the placement of the high pressure, there is at least some chance that some showers get pushed into our SE zones, so I have introduced some low-end PoPs to account for this chance. /44/ (Saturday Night through Friday) As the ridge builds and shifts west into the weekend, our already hot temperatures will continue to climb.
(Today and tonight) The upper level high currently positioned over the ArkLaTex region will continue its westward progression into the South Plains region through the short-term period. As this high pushes closer to the region, expect thickness values to rise, influencing warmer temperatures than previous. Therefore, temperatures will remain cooler across areas where shower activity and cloud cover is expected, i. While areas elsewhere, can expect warmer temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s as skies begin to clear. Shower activity is expected to come to an end by the evening hours as the upper level high expands over the region.
- A cold front will bring a chance for thunderstorms to parts of central Illinois Saturday evening into Saturday night. As upper ridging remains firmly in place across the Midwest/Ohio River Valley, hot and humid conditions will persist through Saturday. At this time, it appears the highest probability for scattered hail and damaging wind gusts will be focused along/west of the I-55 corridor late Saturday afternoon and evening.
Temperatures peak on Saturday, with widespread triple digit highs in the Central Valley and into the lower foothills.
The surge is due to the remnants of a tropical cyclone passing well south of the area.
A shallow intrusion of lower level moisture for the lower deserts will bring warmer nights with days not quite as hot for the weekend.
1045 PM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024 (This evening through Friday) Slightly warmer on Friday with isolated showers/storms Southeasterly flow continues to advect moisture into the area, and the 12Z OUN sounding resembles that of a tropical profile with improved, deeper moistening of the atmospheric column (up to around 500mb) compared to the observation from last evening. Clouds should lessen in coverage throughout the day tomorrow, and result in slightly warmer temperatures, with low 90's expected for most areas and mid-90's for the post-harvest wheat belt that extends from northwest into north- central Oklahoma.
The latest National Hurricane Center forecast shows a 50 percent chance of cyclone development in the next couple of days. Meanwhile, GFS/EURO and ensembles show good agreement in showing a pocket of drier air wrapping around the western edge of the trough, and advecting it into the area. As the trough moves closer, the ridge over the SE CONUS flattens some, with veering of winds across SoFlo bringing a more SE flow this afternoon. Temperatures today and Saturday will warm up into the low 90s, with heat index values in the low 100s, but not expected to reach advisory criteria.
The lee trough across eastern Colorado will deepen through the day. Lower 90s cannot be ruled out across the lower terrain of Barber county. This supports quite warm lows with values in the lower to mid 70s. For Saturday, a 500 hPa ridge starts to build over the region.
125 AM EDT Fri Jun 21 2024 High pressure aloft will settle from the Middle Atlantic and OH Valley southward and across the Southeast through this weekend.
Ridging at the sfc & aloft are building in from the northeast, with RAP/evening 00Z upper air analysis indicate 598DM H5 ridge centered over the Appalachians to Mid-Atlantic. As mean ridging continues to build in, dry night & mostly clear skies are expected. /DC/ Hi-res global guidance continues to highlight high pressure sfc ridging across much of the southeast CONUS. The higher rain chances will remain along the southern Gulf coast as guidance shows Tropical Storm Alberto moving westward across central Mexico. Expect overnight lows to drop into the low 70s areawide. Dry/quiet conditions are expected tomorrow for most of the area as high pressure ridging continues to push the drier airmass across the southeast CONUS. The combination of high pressure ridging and a persistent dry airmass will keep our weather relatively dry through the end of this week.
1223 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024 (This evening through Friday) An upper-level ridge is currently centered over the ArkLaTex and is expected to build westward towards our forecast area through the short term period. Expect seasonable temperatures tomorrow, with most areas 5-10 degrees warmer than today's highs.
(Today through Saturday) The center of the Subtropical Ridge begins to shift to the southwest toward Texas today. With the Ridge approaching, subsidence is still minimal while a tropically moist airmass remains. The Subtropical Ridge moves nearly overhead on Saturday bringing a subsident airmass while another tropical disturbance deepens over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. NHC shows a 60% chance of tropical cyclone development.
(Today through Saturday Night) An upper level ridge continues to retrograde west. Some dew points will climb into the lower 70s Saturday increasing the heat indices slightly. Lows tonight will be in the mid 60s to mid 70s and in the lower to mid 70s Saturday night.
(Today and tonight) Warmer and drier conditions are expected today under a rebuilding upper-level ridge over West Central Texas.
Flow aloft will transition to a zonal pattern Friday, followed by continued height rises across the PacNW Saturday as an upper-level ridge amplifies over the northern Rockies.
A drier airmass is in place with scattered cumulus and dew points in the lower to mid 60s. Upper ridge is still holding strong over the mid Atlantic and Ohio Valley this afternoon. Winds are light and variable as well and heat index values are only in the lower 90s at mid afternoon. For the next 24 hours the center of the ridge shifts west and will be almost overhead Friday. Expecting temperatures to be slightly warmer Friday but no significant changes in the forecast.
This is resulting in widespread sunny skies with a warm afternoon over inland areas with the cool Pacific waters and marine layer providing much cooler conditions along the coast. Most places are about 3-5 degrees higher than this time yesterday and will end up in the low to mid 80s over the east side and in the upper 80s to low 90s in the west side valleys. The weather pattern won't change much over the next couple of days, but heights will continue to rise with weak short wave upper ridging traversing the area. West side valleys will have highs in the low to mid 90s, with upper 90s to around 100F for the Shasta, Scott and lower Klamath river valleys of western Siskiyou County.
An easterly flow continues through the column as florida remains sandwiched between a ridge over the SE CONUS and a Central American Gyre in the NW Caribbean Sea. In between these features is a pocket of drier air and subsidence - the latter of which is a product of venting off the low. The low off the FL Coast is expected to move inland later today or tonight. An ESE flow is forecast to remain in place, meaning that the highest coverage of storms is likely to settle along the I-75 corridor of the west coast late in the day.
Discussion: Ridging aloft will remain centered over middle/eastern Tennessee today, however it will begin to weaken after midday with the most notable height falls in our CWA being over VA, more towards the periphery of the upper ridge. Some models do develop some showers over the higher terrain this afternoon, but the 00z runs of those models initialized very poorly, showing ongoing convection over the higher terrain earlier tonight.
(Today) Another hot day is expected across the Tennessee Valley as high pressure remains centered across the area. Expect afternoon highs to top out in the low to mid 90s.
A weak ridge of high pressure briefly builds over the Northern Rockies this weekend, that will allow for afternoon temperatures to run around 15 degrees above normal.
Lingering stratus over eastern areas will keep cooler conditions in place along with more convective inhibition. Drier conditions move into the area on Saturday as ridging builds over the region. High temperatures are expected to range from the lower 70s to the lower 80s today, coolest over the east. Highs in the 80s can be expected for Saturday, with ridging building into the region. STP Upper level ridging in place will provide hot and dry conditions with several locations nearing record highs.
Afternoon highs Friday will warm into the upper 80s to the lower 90s, which is near or slightly below normal for this time of year. Subsidence under a building ridge aloft will keep Friday through the weekend rain-free with a warming trend.
Meanwhile, a broad ridge over the eastern US continues to build southwest over the region. Despite quite a bit of CU/TCU development around the area this afternoon, decent insolation has enabled temperatures to climb to around 90 degrees or into the lower 90s. 24 (Tonight through Saturday night) Ridging at the surface and aloft will prevail through the short term period. Mid level high pressure will migrate westward through the weekend, while high pressure near the surface will allow easterly winds to veer more southeasterly. By Saturday, the ridge will be strongest over the region, with warm and dry air aloft providing enough capping to limit shower coverage.
1247 AM EDT Fri Jun 21 2024 The heat wave continues into the weekend courtesy of a broad upper level ridge.
AM EDT Fri Jun 21 2024 An area of low pressure (Invest AL92) near the northeast Florida coast continues to move west-northwest towards the northeast Florida and Georgia coasts. However,the low is expected to continue to move to the north of central Florida with the same impacts expected for east central Florida regardless of development. VCSH is mentioned from MLB northward this morning with prevailing -SHRA at LEE/DAB as low pressure continues to approach the Florida coastline from the Atlantic. As the trough axis passes from SE to NW across the area, winds will shift out of the south and southeast during the day and seas will gradually subside below 7 feet offshore by afternoon.
550 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024 (Today) Another hot day is expected across the Tennessee Valley as high pressure remains centered across the area. Expect afternoon highs to top out in the low to mid 90s.
A upper level ridge over the region today will shift eastward on Saturday.
613 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024 (Today and tonight) Warmer and drier conditions are expected today under a rebuilding upper-level ridge over West Central Texas.
Guidance came in with temperatures a few degrees warmer for today, so heat index values may top out near 100 this afternoon. Overnight temperatures in the lower to mid 70s, will make it a challenge to stay cool also. This weekend: Strong ridging both at the surface and aloft will hold sway this weekend, resulting in mainly dry and increasingly warm conditions with temps beginning to tease the triple digit mark in some areas.
Issued 447 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024 Today through Saturday: Cyclogenesis over CO today will attempt to move the warm front, currently extending ewd across NE, IA and nrn IL, northward into srn WI this afternoon into the evening. Pcpn efficiency should be rather high given the aforementioned high PW airmass, warm cloud layer around 4 KM, and relatively high RH in the low to mid levels of the ATM. This will be supported by an approaching wave of low pressure along the warm front and aloft.
1015 AM EDT Fri Jun 21 2024 An area of low pressure (Invest AL92) near the northeast Florida coast continues to move west-northwest towards the northeast Florida and Georgia coasts. However,the low is expected to continue to move to the north of central Florida with the same impacts expected for east central Florida regardless of development. VCSH is mentioned from MLB northward this morning with prevailing -SHRA at LEE/DAB as low pressure continues to approach the Florida coastline from the Atlantic. As the trough axis passes from SE to NW across the area, winds will shift out of the south and southeast during the day and seas will gradually subside below 7 feet offshore by afternoon.
550 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024 (Today through Saturday) The center of the Subtropical Ridge begins to shift to the southwest toward Texas today. With the Ridge approaching, subsidence is still minimal while a tropically moist airmass remains. The Subtropical Ridge moves nearly overhead on Saturday bringing a subsident airmass while another tropical disturbance deepens over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. NHC shows a 60% chance of tropical cyclone development.
641 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024 (Today and tonight) The upper level high currently positioned over the ArkLaTex region will continue its westward progression into the South Plains region through the short-term period. As this high pushes closer to the region, expect thickness values to rise, influencing warmer temperatures than previous. Therefore, temperatures will remain cooler across areas where shower activity and cloud cover is expected, i. While areas elsewhere, can expect warmer temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s as skies begin to clear. Shower activity is expected to come to an end by the evening hours as the upper level high expands over the region.