Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Rain and mountain snow has advanced into SW Idaho this evening along the leading edge of an upper trough and accompanying cold front.
ahead of a low pressure system located over the southern West Coast. This moisture plume is progged to lift northward overnight into Friday as the low pressure moves into the Desert Southwest. (Friday through Thursday) The well advertised wet period will begin Friday as a deep upper level trough slowly moves by to the south of the area beneath a strong area of high pressure to the northeast.
High pressure overhead will weaken and shift southward as a backdoor cold front approaches from the north later tonight. Light west- southwesterly flow today into tonight may bring in enough Gulf moisture for fog and stratus development late tonight over inland northeast FL, with the highest chances along the I-75 corridor.
9 PM temps across the Midsouth are running 8-12 degrees F warmer than 24 hours ago.
1247 AM EST Fri Feb 2 2024 A cold front will move through early this morning, which will bring light rain and snow to parts of the area.
Quick update to expand the Dense Fog Advisory into Sheridan, Burleigh, Kidder, Stutsman, Logan, and La Moure counties as the low stratus and fog over the James River Valley has continued to expand into portions of central North Dakota. Upper level analysis places a nearly omega pattern over the plains into the midwest with large ridge stretching through our neck of the woods, while a compact low lingers near the Colorado/Kansas border. On Friday, low level moisture really starts surging north- northeastward into the area with low level southeast flow given the lee side trough to our west, and high over the Great Lakes into the upper midwest.
(Today) Latest GOES-16 WV/IR imagery shows an upper-level trough moving over far NW Mexico/Desert Southwest early this morning. Ahead of this trough, low-level warm air and moisture will continue to surge northward into eastern OK and western AR from the Gulf, with model consensus indicating precipitable water (PWAT) values approaching or exceeding one inch by this afternoon. Afternoon high temperatures likely wonât be as warm as yesterday, but highs in the mid-upper 60s will be common across the region today, with a few locations possibly reaching the lower 70s. The mid/upper-level trough will slide across the Desert Southwest today, becoming closed-off over eastern NM late tonight.
202 AM CST Fri Feb 2 2024 - A weak front will bring low clouds and slightly cooler temperatures to the area, mainly in the northeast today.
Large area of strong high pressure is centered over Ontario early this morning with pronounced ridging extending southward thru the Western Great Lakes region. High pressure center will slowly drop south over the next 24 hours. with mostly clear skies expected for tonight as strong high pressure/subsidence becomes centered overhead.
1126 PM CST Thu Feb 1 2024 - Mostly quiet weather will continue through Friday, though a weak frontal boundary will bring increasing clouds and slightly cooler temperatures to southwest Indiana on Friday.
331 AM EST Fri Feb 2 2024 A cold front will move through early this morning, which will bring light rain and snow to parts of the area.
1050 PM CST Thu Feb 1 2024 (This afternoon through Friday) A warming trend will develop over the next couple of days as an elongated presence of ridging drifts eastward across the Southeastern states. Temperatures will be seasonably warm, reaching the lower to mid 60s this afternoon then mid to upper 60s tomorrow with the sun filtering through the high clouds. Although warmer than previous nights, temperatures will still fall into the mid to upper 30s tonight.
A longwave negatively tilted trough is expected to deepen across the western CONUS Friday. While the highest chances for rain and highest rainfall totals are expected to be south and west of the region, light rain is should begin to work into southeast Nebraska my midnight Friday night.
By this afternoon, an omega block ridge will creep into the region from the west extending from the Gulf Coast to Canada.
(Today) Large upper ridge pattern extending from the western Gulf states northward into the northern Plains will drift eastward closer to the mid TN Valley later today. This will maintain a generally dry NW flow regime over much of the region, as an upper trough axis digs into the SW states. A weak area of high pressure in place over much of the region will also drift to the SE later today, allowing more of a westerly flow to develop and likewise translating into afternoon highs climbing mainly into the mid 60s for most spots.
1133 PM EST Thu Feb 1 2024 - Cold front-induced snow showers ending this evening. - High pressure builds in, leading to clearing skies and cooler overnight temperatures, especially east. Radar returns from KMQT and ground observations show snow showers moving south along a cold front draped from a RAP-analyzed 1008mb low in Quebec. Despite BUFKIT soundings showing no saturation at any layer cooler than -9 C, periods of large aggregates of dendrites have been observed at the office. Snow showers are expected to end this evening as surface flow becomes anticyclonic in response to an approaching mid-1020s mb high pressure sagging south from northern Ontario. On Friday, this will gradually shift eastward, then park a high-amplitude mid-upper level ridge overhead.
355 AM EST Fri Feb 2 2024 A cold front will move through early this morning, which will bring light rain and snow to parts of the area.
High pressure brings dry, milder weather for the weekend. A cold front is currently approaching from the north and will descend into the area this morning. The front exits to the southeast by afternoon, then dry weather is expected for the rest of the day and tonight as high pressure builds down from the north. Flow turns northerly behind the front, bringing cooler air into the area. This - and persistent cloud cover - should keep high temperatures in the 40 to 50 degree range in the lowlands and 30s to low 40s along the mountains today.
Right now a large UL trof is carving out across the western United States.
1236 AM EST Fri Feb 2 2024 As a weak low pressure system tracks mostly to our north, a cold front crosses our area early Friday morning.
(Today and tonight) A negatively tilted upper trough is currently approaching from the west and will lead to potentially active weather today. The first round of PoPs will be this morning downstream of the broader trough axis. A strengthening, closed upper low is expected to develop over eastern New Mexico. Scattered thunderstorms remain possible behind the higher instability axis along a weak dryline.
907 PM CST Thu Feb 1 2024 High pressure continues to influence our weather with calm conditions.
1246 AM EST Fri Feb 2 2024 Upper ridging will build over the area into Friday bringing pleasant weather and warm temperatures. A dry cold front passes through the region Friday Night with cooler temperatures expected this weekend.
For now, our strong warmer than normal pattern will continue, and it will not be until at least the middle of the month until we moderate back towards what is typical for February.
Beneath, and beneath 700 mb, weak lower tropospheric ridging was almost diffuse across the Gulf and across the southern half of the Florida Peninsula. Overnight, the rapid eastward progression of the upper trough will likely thicken the cirrus, but not much more. tonight High pressure will spread southeastward from the southeastern United States.
309 AM EST Fri Feb 2 2024 Light snow shower activity will dwindle by tonight as high pressure builds into the region. Pressure rises will occur today through tomorrow as breezy north winds develop in advance of high pressure approaching from Ontario/Quebec. With temperatures stagnant near freezing, we will continue to see mainly above freezing temperatures at lower elevations even within snow showers.
323 AM EST Fri Feb 2 2024 Low pressure in the Gulf of Maine this morning will pass east of Nova Scotia tonight.
240 AM EST Fri Feb 2 2024 A lee trough across the western Piedmont today will give way to a backdoor cold front that will move through the area tonight.
1033 PM CST Thu Feb 1 2024 (This evening through Friday night) An upper level trough off the west coast of CONUS at this time, is progged to swing into the FA early tomorrow morning. The low pressure center associated with this trough is expected to close off going into the overnight hours tomorrow night.
433 AM CST Fri Feb 2 2024 (Today and tonight) A negatively tilted upper trough is currently approaching from the west and will lead to potentially active weather today. The first round of PoPs will be this morning downstream of the broader trough axis. A strengthening, closed upper low is expected to develop over eastern New Mexico. Scattered thunderstorms remain possible behind the higher instability axis along a weak dryline.
600 AM EST Fri Feb 2 2024 High pressure overhead will weaken and shift southward as a backdoor cold front approaches from the north later tonight. Light west- southwesterly flow today into tonight may bring in enough Gulf moisture for fog and stratus development late tonight over inland northeast FL, with the highest chances along the I-75 corridor.
Latest models have a good handle with this but do seem to missing the high based convection currently developing across southeast Colorado and extreme southwest Kansas. Right now a large UL trof is carving out across the western United States. The highest pops and most significant QPF amounts will be relegated across the eastern zones.
The boundary layer remains low energy with temperatures in the lower to mid 60s and dew points in the 50s. This trough is driving thick mid and upper level cloud decks.
529 AM CST Fri Feb 2 2024 Updated aviation portion for 12Z TAF issuance - Areas of dense fog or freezing fog are possible late tonight and early Saturday, especially in the Fox Valley and lakeshore areas. So we expect areas of dense fog and freezing fog to form in these areas, with less significant fog further to the west. Highs today will be cooler than yesterday, but still 10 to 15 degrees above normal for this time of the year.
540 AM CST Fri Feb 2 2024 (Today) Large upper ridge pattern extending from the western Gulf states northward into the northern Plains will drift eastward closer to the mid TN Valley later today. This will maintain a generally dry NW flow regime over much of the region, as an upper trough axis digs into the SW states. A weak area of high pressure in place over much of the region will also drift to the SE later today, allowing more of a westerly flow to develop and likewise translating into afternoon highs climbing mainly into the mid 60s for most spots.
455 AM CST Fri Feb 2 2024 Warmer today and tomorrow.
As lead mid-level speed max ejects from incoming trough this afternoon, modest surface cyclone is forecast to develop over the Oklahoma/northern Texas Panhandle. East of the low, with lower level convergence and increasing upper forcing, scattered thunderstorms are expected mid to late afternoon across west central into northwest Oklahoma. Although instability will decrease through the mid to late evening hours, sufficient forcing from incoming trough and cold temperatures aloft may keep at least low end severe storm chances going toward and after midnight into central and south central Oklahoma in the form of a squall line with main severe weather concern confined to damaging winds. By late tonight/daybreak Saturday, most of the heavier rain will be well east of I-35, but rain will slow eastward progression as upper low deepens just west of Oklahoma.
Early morning radar imagery continues to show scattered rain and snow showers across CNTRL/ERN Idaho as a cold front currently situated in WRN Idaho continues to shift east which will bring precipitation chances throughout the day. As a closed H5 low off the PacNW Coast remains nearly stationary, an associated broad H5 trough extending SE down into the Four Corners region will continue to lift north ejecting a series of H5 lows: one weaker one in the NRN Great Basin and another stronger one near New Mexico and Colorado.
442 AM CST Fri Feb 2 2024 - Fog and some freezing fog will remain possible on a more isolated basis in southwest Wisconsin. A few slick spots on untreated surfaces can't be ruled out given surface temperatures around freezing. Otherwise today, cloud cover is anticipated to linger as moisture remains locked in the low lvls of the atmosphere owing to strong subsidence aloft. Patchy fog then looks like a possibility tonight with the lingering low lvl moisture and light winds owing to high pressure over the region. Saturday, skies are anticipated to clear in the afternoon as a high pressure center moves over northern Wisconsin and subsidence finally wins out over the lower lvl moisture. Highs will be in the low 40s away from Lake Michigan.
350 AM CST Fri Feb 2 2024 Forecast discussion for routine morning forecast issuance - Areas of dense fog or freezing fog are possible late tonight and early Saturday, especially in the Fox Valley and lakeshore areas. So we expect areas of dense fog and freezing fog to form in these areas, with less significant fog further to the west. Highs today will be cooler than yesterday, but still 10 to 15 degrees above normal for this time of the year.
Moisture is steadily infiltrating the region from the south as the trough takes hold in the western US.
939 AM EST Fri Feb 2 2024 A cold front will move through early this morning, which will bring light rain and snow to parts of the area. Any lingering snow will not amount to much, mainly a dusting in most places, but with temps above freezing, most of it will melt on contact. In the lower levels, plenty of shallow moisture is present, allowing for patchy fog and low clouds. Some lingering light snow showers will be possible across the Finger Lakes Region this evening, but otherwise a drying trend will be present as high pressure moves in.
Showers, isolated thunderstorms and small hail are forecast through tonight as a cold upper level trough approaches the North Coast.
Really not a lot to discuss for today and tomorrow other than the weather looks pretty great for the start of February, thanks high pressure! Sunshine is expected both days with high temperatures in the 60s for most of the area.
20% chance of temperatures being low enough to have patchy freezing drizzle in some areas. - Warmer than average temperatures look to continue. Guidance shows a stout anticyclone over the area this morning slowly moving eastward in the upper levels. Confidence around 20% in its occurrence currently, but the soundings seem to support freezing drizzle if temperatures can drop enough. If clouds can clear, temperatures will be lower and freezing drizzle will be more likely. Temperatures look to be above average into mid-week, with a pattern change coming after that that will lower temperatures to still above- average but more around the freezing mark.
Low lvl moisture/clouds wl incrs fm the west today and tngt as low pressure continues to gather strength to our west. The highest amts are still expected ovr the SWrn part of the state, where fm one to one and half inches of rainfall is possible.
The cold front is nearly on top of Tucson as of this writing and it will continue to push easterly. The upper atmosphere has good divergence at the 500 mb and just ahead of the trough axis. A decent amount of water to wring out of the atmosphere in the form of rain and snow for the higher elevations. Some showers can linger a bit more on Saturday for the eastern half of the state and in the higher elevations. The post frontal will also bring cooler temperature starting tonight with areas east of Tucson being in the freezing category.
Mainly clear skies tonight, with cooler mins thanks to optimal radiational cooling. Continued dry airmass and slightly warmer temps will produce min RH values btwn 30-35 percent Orlando northward and 40-45 percent to the south.
The better dynamics should arrive overnight as the upper low moves into west Texas and mid-level heights start to fall.
A weak back door cool front will push into east Alabama on Saturday and produce slightly cooler temperatures across far east Alabama.
High temperatures each afternoon will hover around the low to mid 70s, while overnight temperatures dipping into mid to upper 40s for inland areas and mid to upper 50s along the metro/coastal areas.
Temperatures will remain above freezing today through Saturday night and the forecast wagers the ground will thaw sufficiently to absorb most of this rain. Temperatures between now and late Saturday night should remain above freezing and generally in the 40s. The reason for this is the fate of a double barrel upper level low which will still be positioned over the high Plains of Colo and WY at this time. Temperatures in the 30s this morning will warm into the 40s to around 50 today and then remain nearly steady in the low to mid 40s tonight and Saturday with very little diurnal range.
627 AM EST Fri Feb 2 2024 - Cooler today, but above normal temperatures continue throughout the period.
(Today through Saturday) Over the course of the day today, the pattern at the mid-levels will undergo a shift from quasi-zonal to residing within the increasingly-northwestward-canted high amplitude ridge region of an Omega block. Highs will be just a few degrees "cooler," in the mid-50s to mid-60s.
Right now a large UL trof is carving out across the western United States. The highest pops and most significant QPF amounts will be relegated across the eastern zones.
947 AM EST Fri Feb 2 2024 Behind a departing cold front, a few lingering rain or snow showers are possible this morning, otherwise, skies will remain mainly cloudy with near normal temperatures for the rest of today into tonight. Surface cold front has settled south of the region over the mid Atlantic States. A large-scale Omega Blocking pattern sets up for the beginning of the weekend with high amplitude upper ridging centered along and east of the Mississippi Valley while upper troughing sets up over the Canadian Maritimes, transitioning to a Rex Block as an upper trough over the southern Rockies becomes cut off and undercuts the ridge.
532 AM CST Fri Feb 2 2024 (Today) Latest GOES-16 WV/IR imagery shows an upper-level trough moving over far NW Mexico/Desert Southwest early this morning. Ahead of this trough, low-level warm air and moisture will continue to surge northward into eastern OK and western AR from the Gulf, with model consensus indicating precipitable water (PWAT) values approaching or exceeding one inch by this afternoon. Afternoon high temperatures likely wonât be as warm as yesterday, but highs in the mid-upper 60s will be common across the region today, with a few locations possibly reaching the lower 70s.
Upper-level ridging today into Saturday will provide us with a tendency for sinking air in the mid to low levels.
High pressure brings dry, milder weather for the weekend.
655 AM EST Fri Feb 2 2024 A cold front will move through early this morning, which will bring light rain and snow to parts of the area. In the lower levels, plenty of shallow moisture is present, allowing for patchy fog and low clouds. Some lingering light snow showers will be possible across the Finger Lakes Region this evening, but otherwise a drying trend will be present as high pressure moves in.
525 AM CST Fri Feb 2 2024 - A weak front will bring low clouds and slightly cooler temperatures to the area, mainly in the northeast today.
401 AM EST Fri Feb 2 2024 - Cooler today, but above normal temperatures continue throughout the period.
Upper level ridging will push eastward and out of the ArkLaTex, with the trough responsible for our next pushing across Texas and locking southerly flow in place, both at the surface and aloft.
1253 PM EST Fri Feb 2 2024 A cold front will move through early this morning, which will bring light rain and snow to parts of the area. 1240 PM Update: The main change for this update was to add drizzle and freezing drizzle to the forecast, especially overnight tonight. Any lingering snow will not amount to much, mainly a dusting in most places, but with temps above freezing, most of it will melt on contact. In the lower levels, plenty of shallow moisture is present, allowing for patchy fog and low clouds. Some lingering light snow showers will be possible across the Finger Lakes Region this evening, but otherwise a drying trend will be present as high pressure moves in.
153 PM EST Fri Feb 2 2024 High pressure brings dry, milder weather for the weekend. Cloud cover continues to hold tight behind departing cold front, but there are some breaks in the clouds, and expect much of it to erode later this evening and overnight, although some cloud cover may linger into Saturday particularly across the north and east. Otherwise, Saturday should be a rather nice day with high pressure in control, with a sunny sky and light surface winds. The mid-upper level pattern this period features long wave troughing off the east coast, and along the west coast, with ridging in between, over the midwest and at times edging eastward into the Great Lakes.
High pressure has become well-established across the Great Lakes today, with northeast flow still supporting a region of stratocu across the Tri Cities and Thumb, but clearing elsewhere. Daytime highs hold in the mid-30s, although the thermal trough has been quite progressive which will make way for H8 temperatures to rise above 0C this evening. Subsequent warm advection through the weekend will be slow and steady as continued northeast flow is in direct opposition to the warmer air upstream.
151 PM EST Fri Feb 2 2024 High pressure brings dry, milder weather for the weekend. Cloud cover continues to hold tight behind departing cold front, but there are some breaks in the clouds, and expect much of it to erode later this evening and overnight, although some cloud cover may linger into Saturday particularly across the north and east. Otherwise, Saturday should be a rather nice day with high pressure in control, with a sunny sky and light surface winds. The mid-upper level pattern this period features long wave troughing off the east coast, and along the west coast, with ridging in between, over the midwest and at times edging eastward into the Great Lakes.
The primary impacts to Iowa from this system will be cooler (but still well above average) temperatures and breezy winds as the system induces an enhance pressure gradient across the area through the weekend.
1042 AM CST Fri Feb 2 2024 Upper level ridging remains fixed over the Mid-South this morning bringing mostly clear skies, light south/southwest winds, and current temperatures in the 50s and 60s. Today's forecast high temperatures are will be in the upper 60s with some areas reaching the lower 70s. This evening, an upper level low pressure system will set up over the four corners region and begin impeding moisture into the dry column currently fixed over the Mid-South. AEH Warmer today and tomorrow.
953 AM CST Fri Feb 2 2024 - Temperatures around freezing and some lake effect showers continue through portions of southeastern Wisconsin from Janesville through Sheboygan. A few pockets of freezing fog may develop as winds diminish, temperatures fall, and cloud decks lower. Otherwise today, cloud cover is anticipated to linger as moisture remains locked in the low lvls of the atmosphere owing to strong subsidence aloft. Patchy fog then looks like a possibility tonight with the lingering low lvl moisture and light winds owing to high pressure over the region. Saturday, skies are anticipated to clear in the afternoon as a high pressure center moves over northern Wisconsin and subsidence finally wins out over the lower lvl moisture. Highs will be in the low 40s away from Lake Michigan.
(This afternoon through Saturday Night) Dry conditions will continue to prevail across our area as upper level ridging influences across a broad sector of central contiguous U. along with surface ridging influences retrograding westward from Ontario, Canada keep a developing storm system to our west/southwest. Lows tonight will be above freezing spanning the 30s.