Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Slightly cooler temperatures are anticipated today across the east and portions of central of North Dakota. Temperatures will be nearly similar to yesterday out west as a warmer airmass nudges westward. High temperatures are forecast to sit in the lower teens in the James River Valley to the upper 20s out west. Northwesterly flow will persist into the weekend, however a positively tilted ridge will quickly move across the Northern Plains bringing in temperatures in mid 20s to lower 30s.
322 AM CST Thu Jan 23 2025 - Cooler today with a few flurries possible. - Expect a brief warm-up on Friday but turning cooler again this weekend. Dry air in the lowest kilometer should limit any meaningful accumulation. Mid/upper ridging will overspread the area on Friday bringing increasing thickness and more seasonable temperatures.
Temps will be warmer than what was seen on Wed. Lows Fri night will be warmer however.
529 AM CST Thu Jan 23 2025 Broad troughing over the CONUS is still evident in the short term.
Westerly surface winds will develop today, advecting a weak thermal ridge ahead of this front into the area. This along with sunshine will warm temperatures into the lower 40s this afternoon in valley areas (upper 30s atop the higher elevations).
938 AM EST Thu Jan 23 2025 High pressure continues to weaken into tonight as low pressure passes offshore late in the day and tonight.
937 AM EST Thu Jan 23 2025 A weak cold front will move east across the region later this afternoon into tonight. High pressure will then build east into the central Great Lakes and Ohio Valley on Friday. The high is expected to move east of the region Friday night. Another weak cold front is poised to move into the area this weekend. Increasing clouds and scattered flurries ahead of a warm front this morning will transition to snow showers this afternoon ahead of a cold front. Colder air will infiltrate the region once again, resulting in lows in the single digits west to the lower teens east. Highs will range from the upper teens north to the lower/mid 20s south.
Pattern Synopsis: Expansive longwave troughing encompassing most of the CONUS east of the Rockies will gradually slide east across the country through the period. At the surface, a weak cyclone will continue to traverse the Great Lakes this morning and afternoon as an attendant cold front swings across the area. Perhaps a few lingering snow showers early Friday, otherwise our first break in the action in a while looks likely during the day Friday with drier air/short wave ridging building in.
642 AM EST Thu Jan 23 2025 - System Shifts with Lake Effect through Today - Slightly warmer with another chance of snow this weekend - System Shifts with Lake Effect through Today As of 330 AM the southwesterly flow and associated lake effect snow showers continue, albeit quite diminished. The cold front, which latest satellite has moving through Wisconsin will drop down around sunrise, which will shift winds sharply to the northwest by mid morning and will continue through the day. - Slightly warmer with another chance of snow this weekend The bitterly cold temperatures will slightly improve into this weekend with temperatures closer to normal.
(Today and tonight) Amplified ridging pattern continues to dominate ambient weather across our area today. After another relatively cold start to the day, temperatures across the North Bay and Bay Area will be similar to yesterday, while the Santa Clara Valley and Central Coast climb into the low to mid 70s under clear skies and light winds. A deepening upper level trough will begin moving south out of the Pacific Northwest later today, flattening the upper ridge overnight as it gradually works south. Overnight lows into early Friday will be slightly warmer than recent mornings, but still below normal in most locations.
Issued 416 AM CST Thu Jan 23 2025 Today through Friday: The cold front and accompanied light snow will move out of far se WI by 13Z with clearing afterward.
522 AM CST Thu Jan 23 2025 - Cooler today with a few flurries possible. - Expect a brief warm-up on Friday but turning cooler again this weekend. Dry air in the lowest kilometer should limit any meaningful accumulation. Mid/upper ridging will overspread the area on Friday bringing increasing thickness and more seasonable temperatures.
(Today through Friday) An elongated area of high pressure is positioned across the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic this morning. Meanwhile, a cold front is currently moving through the northern Plains toward the Ohio Valley, with high pressure behind it.
517 AM CST Thu Jan 23 2025 - Cooler again today with highs around 50. Hard freeze again tonight with lows in the low to mid 20s.
654 AM EST Thu Jan 23 2025 A weak cold front will move east across the region later this afternoon into tonight. High pressure will then build east into the central Great Lakes and Ohio Valley on Friday. The high is expected to move east of the region Friday night. Another weak cold front is poised to move into the area this weekend. For today, a weak cold front is forecast to move east into our region later this afternoon. Highs will range from the mid 20s north to the lower 30s south. Colder air will infiltrate the region once again, resulting in lows in the single digits west to the lower teens east. Highs will range from the upper teens north to the lower/mid 20s south.
543 AM CST Thu Jan 23 2025 (Today through Friday Night) A weak cold front will continue to move over the region early this morning. However, it will feel warmer compared to previous days. Overall, expect highs in the low to mid 50s. Another cold night is on tap for SE TX tonight with sub freezing temperatures at most inland locations. Therefore, return/onshore flow will resume by the afternoon, bringing a warmer and more humid airmass inland. Overnight lows will finally be in near to above freezing across the entire region.
650 AM EST Thu Jan 23 2025 Weak high pressure remains over the region today as low pressure passes offshore late in the day and tonight.
458 AM CST Thu Jan 23 2025 Broad troughing over the CONUS is still evident in the short term.
507 AM CST Thu Jan 23 2025 (Today through Friday) An elongated area of high pressure is positioned across the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic this morning. Meanwhile, a cold front is currently moving through the northern Plains toward the Ohio Valley, with high pressure behind it.
(Today and tonight) Amplified ridging pattern continues to dominate ambient weather across our area today. After another relatively cold start to the day, temperatures across the North Bay and Bay Area will be similar to yesterday, while the South Bay and Central Coast climb into the low to mid 70s under clear skies and light winds. A deepening upper level trough will begin moving south out of the Pacific Northwest later today, flattening the upper ridge overnight as it gradually works south. Overnight lows into early Friday will be slightly warmer than recent mornings, but still below normal in most locations.
(Today through Friday) At a glance: - Frigid morning, then gradual warming - Black ice/lingering ice cover likely on less-frequented roadways With high pressure settling in at the surface and a reinforcing shot of dry air moving through at the mid-levels, negligible precipitating weather is expected for the next 36 hours. Morning cloud cover will initially stagnate additional melting, but highs in the lower-40s this afternoon should support further progress in breaking through the impressive snowfall (as much as 7- 9") seen across our far southern counties.
Re-freezing will be expected for any snow that remains; however, given how yesterday went we are not sure how much will be left after today.
1110 AM CST Thu Jan 23 2025 (Today through Friday) An elongated area of high pressure is positioned across the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic this morning. Meanwhile, a cold front is currently moving through the northern Plains toward the Ohio Valley, with high pressure behind it.
Modified Arctic cold front was nearing the I-70 corridor at 10 am. 25 There are some snow showers still passing through central Illinois north of I-70 this morning ahead of a cold front, but they are starting to peter out. The cold front is currently extended over northern IL and southwest, just north of the Kansas City area. The warming trend arrives for the weekend as ridging moves overhead for the end of the week.
Bumped up PoPs a bit through the mid afternoon as snow coverage has been fairly widespread so far this morning along a cold front now draped from southwest MI into north-central IN. A cold front and associated upper level trough will move through the area this afternoon, with winds shifting from the southwest to northwest behind the front. Zonal flow across the CONUS will result in a mainly dry and seasonable pattern across the Lower Great Lakes in the coming week.
THIS AFTERNOON: Mid-lvl trough axis passing through central South Dakota and then Nebraska will eventually allow the lingering stratus through portions of the CWA to thin slightly. Short term models show subtle mid-lvl trough moving through North Dakota by Friday morning, with a gradually lowering of a thickening mid- lvl cloud deck into South Dakota overnight. A warmer westerly surface wind behind the passing front will allow temperatures to rise near or above the freezing mark along and west of I-29, with highs in the 20s further east.
1137 AM CST Thu Jan 23 2025 - Cooler today with a few flurries possible. - Expect a brief warm-up on Friday but turning cooler again this weekend. Dry air in the lowest kilometer should limit any meaningful accumulation. Mid/upper ridging will overspread the area on Friday bringing increasing thickness and more seasonable temperatures.
330 PM EST Thu Jan 23 2025 Low pressure will move through the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley this evening, then high pressure will begin to build in on Friday. A cold front will push east through the middle Ohio Valley this evening as snow showers transition into flurries behind the front.
Cold front drops in Friday with gusty northwest winds (50% chance 35-45mph gusts) behind it as well as a band of light snow.
Increasing cloud cover tonight will keep overnight lows 10-15 degrees "warmer" than what they were this morning but still a few degrees below seasonal norms.
1108 AM CST Thu Jan 23 2025 - Cooler again today with highs around 50. Hard freeze again tonight with lows in the low to mid 20s.
(Tonight through Friday night) - Hard freeze for many areas late tonight into Friday morning - Elevated fire weather conditions Friday afternoon across the Rio Grande Plains, southern Edwards Plateau, and Hill Country High pressure settles in behind the early morning cold front with clear skies and cool conditions forecast through the short term period.
The large-scale pattern across North America features a deep trough in much of the central and eastern U. with a building ridge in the western U. A high-over-low blocking pattern is set to develop in this evolving upper-air pattern, with only slow progression of the upper low eastward through the Desert Southwest and vicinity (coinciding with the slow eastward progression of high-amplitude ridging farther north).
1121 AM CST Thu Jan 23 2025 - More flurries will be possible by Friday morning mostly along the Hwy-14 corridor and Buffalo Ridge with mostly light accumulations expected. Temperature wise, we'll likely be quite a bit cooler than yesterday mostly due to lingering cold air advection aloft and northwesterly surface winds. By tonight, warm air advection (WAA) will begin to strengthen with the arrival of a quick mid-level ridge. The weekend: Heading into the weekend, more dreary and breezy conditions will be on tap for Friday as a mid-level wave swings through the region with its associated cold front. While the betters snow chances will likely stay just our north with the better dynamics, can't completely rule out a few flurries to very light snow along the highway-14 corridor and our higher elevation areas.
Did go slightly colder than the warmer biased NBM for tonight's MinT using the ADJMAV guidance.
High clouds are streaming overhead in the subtropical jet downstream of a positively tilted trough extending from the Great Lakes southwestward to the Southern Plains. Therefore highs should trend warmer for this afternoon but still well below normal, continuing to aid melting in the far southeast counties. Moisture from melting snow in the far southeast counties will result in another night of potential for refreezing on roadways. This will keep highs a bit cooler across the north but should be slow enough for some warming in the south.
(Tonight through Friday night) Temperatures will be cold once again tonight, with lows near or around freezing across much of South Texas. It looks like there could be more sunshine tomorrow, which may result in slightly warmer temperatures.
Won't be surprised if we see flurries through most of the rest of the day until the low clouds clear out, although by that point the next system will be approaching from the west anyways. Slightly cooler temperatures are anticipated today across the east and portions of central of North Dakota. Temperatures will be nearly similar to yesterday out west as a warmer airmass nudges westward. High temperatures are forecast to sit in the lower teens in the James River Valley to the upper 20s out west. Northwesterly flow will persist into the weekend, however a positively tilted ridge will quickly move across the Northern Plains bringing in temperatures in mid 20s to lower 30s.
Temperatures have remained on the chilly side, though all areas have risen above freezing this afternoon, currently ranging from the mid 30s to low 40s. Clouds will gradually decrease this evening, and temperatures will again drop well below freezing areawide. While road conditions have generally continued to improve today, any lingering moisture will refreeze again tonight as temperatures bottom out in the lower 20s by Friday morning. Friday will bring afternoon temperatures a smidge warmer than today, though all areas are expected to remain in the 40s.
222 PM EST Thu Jan 23 2025 Arctic high pressure slowly weakens as the air mass gradually modifies through the weekend.
Just enough sun broke through the low and mid stratus that we actually got a couple degrees warmer from what we updated this morning. Drier air moving along the periphery of a mid and upper level ridge situated in the Caribbean is attempting to erode clouds over the eastern waters.
1058 AM EST Thu Jan 23 2025 - Lake Effect Continues Today - Slightly warmer with another chance of snow this weekend Only modification to the winter headlines was to allow the Kent County Advisory to expire at 10 AM. Cold front continues to press through the area and will clear south central Michigan in the next few hours. The cold front, which latest satellite has moving through Wisconsin will drop down around sunrise, which will shift winds sharply to the northwest by mid morning and will continue through the day. - Slightly warmer with another chance of snow this weekend The bitterly cold temperatures will slightly improve into this weekend with temperatures closer to normal.
206 PM CST Thu Jan 23 2025 Thursday night through next Thursday: Another cold night is in store as a reinforcing cold front passes through the area. With both a cold front and radiative cooling, overnight lows will be cold again as temps fall to the low/mid 20s. Cooler air will keep Friday's highs (ranging in the 40s) and lows (low/mid 20s) persistent. Sfc ridging is expected to build post-frontal passage, bringing a warming pattern to the CWA over the weekend. Despite the warming trend, afternoon (ranging from the upper 40s to the mid 50s) and overnight (increasing from the lower 20s to upper 30s/lower 40s) temps are expected to remain below seasonal averages.
Sfc ridging will help temps warm above freezing before a reinforcing cold front pushes through the area this evening. /SW/ Broad troughing over the CONUS is still evident in the short term.
Arctic high pressure mainly in control of conditions this morning with temperatures now down to the middle teens inland. While the low clouds may abate the higher level cloud cover from the southwest is making its move. Mid-level trough axis west of the region Fri morning moves across the area Fri night, dragging a dry cold front with it. May see a slight increase in cloud cover in the afternoon, but with the westerly flow aloft there may not be much moisture to support clouds by the time the trough axis reaches the coast.
204 PM EST Thu Jan 23 2025 - Lake Effect Continues Today - Slightly warmer with another chance of snow this weekend Only modification to the winter headlines was to allow the Kent County Advisory to expire at 10 AM. Cold front continues to press through the area and will clear south central Michigan in the next few hours. The cold front, which latest satellite has moving through Wisconsin will drop down around sunrise, which will shift winds sharply to the northwest by mid morning and will continue through the day. - Slightly warmer with another chance of snow this weekend The bitterly cold temperatures will slightly improve into this weekend with temperatures closer to normal.
1148 AM CST Thu Jan 23 2025 (Today through Friday Night) A weak cold front will continue to move over the region early this morning. However, it will feel warmer compared to previous days. Overall, expect highs in the low to mid 50s. Another cold night is on tap for SE TX tonight with sub freezing temperatures at most inland locations. Therefore, return/onshore flow will resume by the afternoon, bringing a warmer and more humid airmass inland. Overnight lows will finally be in near to above freezing across the entire region.
WPC clusters have stronger ridge building, weaker ridge, stronger troughing, weaker troughing for its 4 solutions by Wed, with equal parts of the EPS and GEFS ensemble members in each cluster.
1127 AM CST Thu Jan 23 2025 - A cold front will move through the area this morning, bringing scattered flurries/very light snow showers. A cold front was approaching a KMBY>>KUIN axis as of 0900 UTC. After an earlier round of snow flurries/very light snow showers associated with a pre-frontal trough, upstream radar imagery and surface observations show another round of this type of activity moving into northeast Missouri and west-central Illinois. Highs are forecast to range from near 20 degrees in northeast Missouri and west-central Illinois to the low 30s in southeast Missouri.
As such, have boosted PoPs towards the 50% to 70% range, with the highest chances in northern Wisconsin. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected with NW winds this afternoon becoming light overnight and then southerly on Friday as high pressure crosses the region.
1124 AM CST Thu Jan 23 2025 - A polar cold front will move through the region today and tonight, bringing an increase in cloud cover and some flurries to parts of the area.
- Near to slightly cooler than normal temperatures remain in place through the weekend. Current satellite and 12Z UA observations show a broad positively tilted deep trough in place from eastern Canada into the southern Rockies. A high pressure ridge is transitioning east into the northern Rockies. As the colder air moves into the region over somewhat warmer ground a few flurries within these cloud streets may develop.
1131 AM CST Thu Jan 23 2025 Latest surface analysis places high pressure along the East Coast with a weak cold front stretching from the Great Lakes region and into the Middle Mississippi Valley and Central Plains.
(Tonight through Friday night) A coastal trough will linger offshore tonight, keeping light precip in the forecast for the lower Valley. The upper Valley/brush country will flirt with freezing temps for a couple of hours Friday morning, but elected to hold off on a freeze warning based on lower confidence regarding persistence and geographic coverage. We expect temperatures to recover on Friday as a modified high pressure area spreads over the area and skies clear.
Weak upper ridging has allowed temperatures to rise above the freezing mark this afternoon, with current temps largely in the lower 40s. Although clouds will increase from north to south during the early morning hours as a weak sfc front passes, radiational cooling will allow temperatures to drop into the lower 20s tonight.
Today's cold weather and northwest winds are occurring as high pressure moves into the area. Afternoon readings are holding in the lower to middle teens over snow covered areas (generally north of Highway 34) and the upper teens south. The high pressure ridge is expected to be centered over the Mississippi River around 3 AM tonight, and that will provide ideal conditions for radiational cooling. This is due to both good timing on the ridge axis/light winds and fresh snow cover.
300 PM EST Thu Jan 23 2025 Temperatures will trend warmer through the weekend. With the passing of a fairly flat upper-level trough, flow will shift back out of the west overnight, allowing the main band of snow to drift north. This trough could enhance snowfall, but this band will have exited the region prior to snow picking up. Instead, the counties that will see the higher amounts were highlighted in the HWO. With the trough dropping in overnight, there will be another surge of colder air leading to lows in the single digits across the region.
Flurries and light snow is possible late tonight into the day on Friday, mainly across the higher terrain. Some of the highest elevation places could see around an inch of snowfall or locally more. A lot of the high-res model guidance suggests accumulations to be mainly above 3,000 feet across the mountains into southwest Virginia. Accumulations of around an inch seem likely, but some of the highest peaks could definitely see more.
332 PM EST Thu Jan 23 2025 - A cold front passing through overnight brings a chance for flurries and a few snow showers this evening into early Friday.
335 PM EST Thu Jan 23 2025 - Lake Effect Winds Down Overnight - Temps Averaging Closer to Normal After Friday, Snow Showers and Windy at Times - Lake Effect Winds Down Overnight Northwest flow lake effect snow in the wake of this morning's cold front has been spreading farther inland due to slight backing of the low level flow and diurnal effects. Additional (localized) accumulations of 1 to 3" are expected tonight before the snow gradually diminishes overnight with arrival of sfc ridging. The other impact will be for temperature swings ahead and behind passing cold fronts.
A number of locations in the Valley and Delta dropped to around freezing this morning, such as Sacramento Executive Airport at 31 degrees and Stockton at 30. High pressure ridging peaks today, with highs this afternoon rebounding into the mid to upper 60s, highest over the northern Sacramento Valley.
A longwave trough continues to be the dominant upper-level feature across the Eastern CONUS.
A weak and mainly dry cold front will move through the Lower Mississippi Valley tonight. Temperatures on Friday will average about 10 degrees cooler in the middle 30s to lower 40s.
1239 PM EST Thu Jan 23 2025 High pressure continues to weaken into tonight as low pressure passes offshore late in the day and tonight.
251 PM CST Thu Jan 23 2025 - Cold front moving through today brings colder air tonight and tomorrow.
(Rest of today through Friday) Model and sfc analyses data shows a strong trough/low complex moving across the NE CONUS, and sending a long associated sfc boundary towards the deep south and the Florida peninsula. Ensemble guidance and local models remain in fair agreement regarding the lowest temps expected Friday morning.