Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
High pressure, drier conditions, and slightly above normal temperatures are then expected through much of the upcoming week. This afternoon: Upper ridge remains across the region, while at the surface the front that pushed into the area yesterday will begin moving back to the north again later this afternoon. Model soundings show another afternoon of inverted-v profiles in the lower levels, but some warm air in the mid-levels. With the higher pwats and potential slow movement of storms, periods of heavy rainfall may be encountered. Highs still on track to reach into at least the lower 90s.
912 AM PDT Sun Jun 16 2024 A trough deepening down the West Coast will bring a few degrees of cooling today and Monday, but it will still be quite warm.
1208 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 Air temperatures are running about 2 to 4 degrees warmer than at this time yesterday. Most locations are in the low to mid 90s. The majority of locations are in the lower 70s, but several airports are reporting mid to upper 70s this past hour. The combination of warmer air temperatures and higher dewpoints has pushed heat indices into the triple digits nearly areawide.
Stronger high pressure will continue to build into the region over the next couple of days, with some drier air also moving over the state. Highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s inland, to the lower to mid 90s near the coast.
105 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 (Tonight through Monday night) High temperatures will continue to range from the low 90s along the coast to near 105 across the Brush Country today and Monday.
1226 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 - Scattered storms expected to move through northwest Missouri this morning, but dry conditions return by the afternoon - Warm and Humid Conditions This Week - Additional Shower/Storm Chances Throughout This Week Thunderstorms linger through the morning hours but are expected to move out by mid morning with trough axis shifting east. The highest concern would be gusty winds. Mid level ridging sets up over the east coast and builds for the next several days. On Sunday expect highs to reach into the low to mid 90s (5- 10 degrees above normal).
The high pressure that has given us the heat and drier conditions this week will quickly translate east into the western Atlantic. Meanwhile, a series of inverted troughs will work their way around the northern periphery of a larger gyre centered over central America. The bad news is that we will be in a bit of a funnel of deep Gulf moisture that will setup between the Gyre and the large upper ridge to our east. Areas more east of I-65 will still see rain but could be more scattered in nature given the proximity to the upper ridge.
Tonight, skies will clear out but it will still be a warm and muggy night with lows in the lower 70s and dewpoints in the upper 60s. A 500mb ridge will hangout over the eastern U.
617 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 (This evening through Monday) Most of the state of Texas is between the 500mb subtropical ridge across northwest Mexico and the 500mb ridge along the middle Atlantic United States coastline.
415 PM MDT Sun Jun 16 2024 Cooler than normal temperatures prevail, while the next weather producer enters the region.
844 PM MDT Sun Jun 16 2024 Cooler than normal temperatures prevail, while the next weather producer enters the region.
Dry weather and warm temperatures are expected overnight with lows Monday morning in the low to mid 70s.
802 PM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024 A weak cold front will linger over the area tonight before dissipating early this week. High pressure will then ridge in from offshore mid to late week. Tonight: Mid-level ridging persists, maybe even strengthening a bit. The weak cold front across our area should gradually lift to the north.
658 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 (This evening through Monday Night) A weak perturbation in the flow aloft is rotating around the western periphery of an upper-level ridge centered over the Carolinas. Most locations should see at least some chance for rain, but the highest chances for rain should be across Central and Northeast Louisiana.
Deep layered ridging is planted across the broader area. Short Term Update - Robust surface ridging will remain across the southeast through the overnight period. Deep layered ridging will remain in control. That said, forecast soundings suggest that the lower levels will moisten and destabilize a bit through the night. The healthy flow will keep overnight lows broadly in the lower 80s with dew points remaining in the mid to upper 70s. The combination of a ridge across the southeastern United States and lower pressure in Central America will result in continued moderate to fresh easterly breezes on Keys Waters through the overnight period.
(The rest of tonight) Latest water vapor imagery shows the forecast area sandwiched in- between mid/upper-level ridging along the eastern CONUS and a deepening trough over the Pacific NW/Great Basin regions. However, despite the very warm temperatures, with very weak forcing in the low/mid- levels, they were unable to sustain themselves more than just a few minutes. Another abnormally warm night is expected with low temperatures bottoming out in the low-mid 70s.
This is in response to the trough moving into the western US that is ultimately responsible for our current windy conditions.
Temperatures have dropped into the low to mid 80s so far this evening and will continue to decrease during the overnight hours into the upper 60s to mid 70s as cloud cover builds in from the southeast.
812 PM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024 High pressure, drier conditions, and slightly above normal temperatures are then expected through mid-week. Ridging over the area has led to warm air aloft, which will limit the threat of severe weather.
550 PM MDT Sun Jun 16 2024 Aviation Section Updated Cooler than normal temperatures prevail, while the next weather producer enters the region.
637 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 (Rest of today through Monday) Satellite imagery this afternoon shows the center of a strong high pressure system to our east. A very similar pattern sets up on Monday as the high pressure remains centered to our east over the Carolinas. The strong high pressure becomes centered over the mid-Atlantic states, but it will be strong enough to extinguish our own precipitation chances for several days.
1031 PM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024 A weak cold front will linger over the area tonight before dissipating early this week. High pressure will then ridge in from offshore mid to late week. Overnight: Mid-level ridging persists, maybe even strengthening a bit. The weak cold front across our area should gradually lift to the north. Lows should be in the lower 70s at most places, except the mid 70s closer to the coast.
737 PM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024 High pressure just to our north should provide dry weather and easterly winds for the first half of the week.
553 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 (Tonight) Another hot/humid day across the Tennessee Valley with early afternoon temperatures in the low/mid 90s forecast to climb an additional 2-3 degrees before the day is done. Dewpoints have held in the lower 70s in most locations and subsequently heat indices range from 97 to 104 degrees across the area as of 18z. Overnight lows in the low to mid 70s will be common once again.
The very cold upper low center is forecast to move eastward across our northern zones Monday but will still be close enough to continue showers (snow above 5000 feet MSL) in Idaho north of the Snake Basin Monday night.
1249 AM EDT Mon Jun 17 2024 A weak cold front will linger over the area tonight before dissipating early this week. High pressure will then ridge in from offshore mid to late week. Overnight: Mid-level ridging persists, maybe even strengthening a bit. The weak cold front across our area will gradually lift to the north or begin to dissipate.
357 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Through tonight: Deep layer moisture continues to increase across our area on the western periphery of a ridge.
Currently a mid level ridge is situated over the eastern US with troughing over the west. At the surface, we also see broad high pressure situated to our east allowing for winds to remain southerly, drawing in warm and moist air. Today we can expect highs reaching the low to mid 90s across the forecast area with heat indices reaching 97-100 degrees.
Otherwise, near to slightly below average temperatures will occur through the middle of the week as a trough of low pressure stays over the western US. High pressure will reemerge later this week, leading to above average temperatures away from the coast again. Inversion base of 1500-2000 ft MSL should allow at least some of the low clouds to make it into the valleys overnight.
One exception will be under the band of heavier precipitation northwest of the low center, where snow levels could briefly fall to 3500-4000 feet.
1200 AM MDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Aviation Section Updated Cooler than normal temperatures prevail, while the next weather producer enters the region.
Hot and humid again today with upper ridging across the region. Discussion: It will be hot and humid once again with a 500mb 595dam ridge centered over central North Carolina.
201 AM EDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Strong high pressure will gradually build over the region through much of the week keeping temperatures above normal.
(Today and tonight) On Water Vapor satellite imagery, an upper level trough can be seen over the Pacific Northwest, while upper level ridging existed across Texas. As we go through today and tonight, the trouble will push east into Montana/Idaho/Wyoming, while upper level ridging will remain in place across Texas and the eastern CONUS. Finally, expect similar highs and lows today/tonight (highs in the low to mid 90s east, and upper 90s to around 100 west; lows in the low to mid 70s), as the 850 mb thermal ridge stays at around the same strength.
313 AM EDT Mon Jun 17 2024 High pressure, drier conditions, and near normal temperatures are expected through mid-week.
1218 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 (Rest of today through Monday) Satellite imagery this afternoon shows the center of a strong high pressure system to our east. A very similar pattern sets up on Monday as the high pressure remains centered to our east over the Carolinas. The strong high pressure becomes centered over the mid-Atlantic states, but it will be strong enough to extinguish our own precipitation chances for several days.
Removed POPs earlier this evening as the convection over the High Plains dissipated well west of the forecast area. Otherwise, low storm chances are also in place across northwest Oklahoma this evening where isolated to scattered convection could form across the High Plains and move into our area.
1235 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 (This evening through Monday) Most of the state of Texas is between the 500mb subtropical ridge across northwest Mexico and the 500mb ridge along the middle Atlantic United States coastline.
1019 PM MDT Sun Jun 16 2024 - A cold front pushes across the forecast area Monday increasing the chance for precipitation, especially across the north. Gusty west to northwest wind follows the front along with much cooler temperatures. Sub-freezing temperatures look likely for the western valleys/basins.
(Today and tonight) Oklahoma will exist between week southwesterly flow aloft to the north and an upper ridge to the south. it will be quiet windy today with a strong lee trough over eastern Colorado.
Warm frontal boundary setting up ahead of the trough may fire up some thunderstorms over northeastern WY this afternoon.
Otherwise, the center of the upper ridge axis will become centered over the southern Atlantic states today, allowing for a slightly more active southerly flow pattern to develop over the lower MS Valley. With the upper ridge displaced to the east, afternoon temps will trend a few degrees cooler compared to the last few days, with highs mainly in the lower 90s/near 90F.
/44/ (This evening through Monday Night) A weak perturbation in the flow aloft is rotating around the western periphery of an upper-level ridge centered over the Carolinas. Most locations should see at least some chance for rain, but the highest chances for rain should be across Central and Northeast Louisiana.
Surface cyclogenesis will develop in northeastern Colorado in response to a strong short wave trough moving across the Intermountain West. Low level convergence will increase along the dryline supplementing the weak larger scale lift from the upper jet/short wave trough.
1227 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 (The rest of tonight) Latest water vapor imagery shows the forecast area sandwiched in- between mid/upper-level ridging along the eastern CONUS and a deepening trough over the Pacific NW/Great Basin regions. However, despite the very warm temperatures, with very weak forcing in the low/mid- levels, they were unable to sustain themselves more than just a few minutes. Another abnormally warm night is expected with low temperatures bottoming out in the low-mid 70s.
956 AM EDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Typical summertime weather is on tap for today before strong high pressure builds in on Tuesday.
410 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 (Today through Tuesday afternoon) WV imagery shows a flat upper ridge extending from the Pacific through northwest Mexico and nosing into West Texas and Southeast New Mexico this morning. A trough over the PacNW is forecast to dig east over the next couple of days, transitioning zonal flow aloft to more southwesterly. Temperatures may be a bit cooler than yesterday, but not enough to feel the difference. Tuesday, as the PacNW trough pushes into the upper Midwest, this will suppress the upper ridge to the south.
Water vapor imagery shows that mid-level ridging and high pressure has begun to dominate the eastern CONUS with southerly low level flow into the Mid-Mississippi River Valley. Another factor that would keep high temperatures on the "cooler" side is the shower and thunderstorm potential across southeast Missouri and southern Illinois. Similar to today, areas that see a shower or thunderstorm could see highs on the "cooler" side.
625 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 (Today through Tuesday) In the short-term, big upper level ridge centered in the Carolinas early in the period will start its migration northward. Tropical moisture will also continue to get guided into the state from the Gulf, especially on the western periphery of the ridge.
Currently a mid level ridge is situated over the eastern US with troughing over the west. At the surface, we also see broad high pressure situated to our east allowing for winds to remain southerly, drawing in warm and moist air. Today we can expect highs reaching the low to mid 90s across the forecast area with heat indices reaching 97-100 degrees. Tuesday can expect very similar conditions with highs reaching the low to mid 90s and heat indices in the upper 90s to near 100.
556 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 (Today through Tuesday Night) To begin the period, high pressure is currently centered just to the east of the state.
A tight pressure gradient will keep gusty southerly winds in place during the afternoon, with the highest gusts in the 25 to 30 mph range. Increasing moisture across the eastern fringes of the forecast area along the western edge of the upper level high in the southeastern United States, could lead to a few isolated diurnal thunderstorms mainly across parts of northwest and west central Arkansas.
Not ruling out a few showers early this morning across north- central LA as influence from a perturbation rounding the western edge of the upper-level ridge over the Carolinas works north across eastern LA and western MS. It is worth mentioning that coverage has been trending down for Tuesday as the latest guidance suggests the strengthening and expansion of the upper-level ridge, cutting off the tropical airmass from advancing further north.
638 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Slightly cooler conditions are expected today and tomorrow as a broad swath of rain moves in.
Warm frontal boundary setting up ahead of the trough may fire up some thunderstorms over northeastern WY this afternoon. Upper trough swings over the northern plains Tuesday, and precipitation chances will continue, mainly over northwestern SD and south central SD. Late this afternoon into the evening hours as a cold front moves through, thunderstorms with local IFR conditions will develop with erratic gusty winds and hail possible through 06z Tuesday. Behind the cold front, areas of MVFR stratus will develop overnight.
One more seasonably cool day across the region as showers continue to taper off behind departing low pressure.
(Today through Tuesday) A mid-level trough over the western Gulf has pushed the subtropical ridge toward the west over northern Mexico. Southeasterly flow in the low levels has continued over the last 24 hours. The upper trough over the Gulf will continue to push slowly to the west while the low level flow continues from the southeast. The weakening of the ridge will allow for possible showers and thunderstorms over the Coastal Plains counties today. As the Gulf trough approaches the coast rain chances will push farther inland Tuesday.
Snowmelt from the higher elevations of the Sierra Nevada, will continue to result in dangerously cold and fast flows along rivers and waterways.
Light shower activity will linger today as an upper level trough shifts eastward. High pressure aloft will gradually build through the week, allowing conditions to dry out and warm up. A pattern change is on track for the end of the week as a trough brings wetter and cooler conditions to western Washington.
An upper-level ridge continues to slowly move over the region, and temperatures will begin to ramp up Monday, with high temperatures in the high 80s to low 90s. Temperatures will continue to rise into Tuesday, up to the low to mid 90s, with heat indices of 95 to 100.
634 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 (Today through Tuesday) A mid-level trough over the western Gulf has pushed the subtropical ridge toward the west over northern Mexico. Southeasterly flow in the low levels has continued over the last 24 hours. The upper trough over the Gulf will continue to push slowly to the west while the low level flow continues from the southeast. The weakening of the ridge will allow for possible showers and thunderstorms over the Coastal Plains counties today. As the Gulf trough approaches the coast rain chances will push farther inland Tuesday.
411 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 - Warm south and cooler with a few storms north today.
Slightly cooler conditions are expected today and tomorrow as a broad swath of rain moves in.
644 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Through tonight: Deep layer moisture continues to increase across our area on the western periphery of a ridge.
648 AM EDT Mon Jun 17 2024 High pressure, drier conditions, and near normal temperatures are expected through mid-week.
The overall pattern remains part of a broad low pressure system that will move away from our area later today. Another weak trough will continue to keep temperatures much cooler than normal, but we should remain mainly dry. In addition, this trough will continue to keep temperatures colder than average. In addition to the freezing temperatures east of the Cascades, temperatures will be relatively chilly west of the Cascades-- especially for the Scott Valley in Siskiyou County. Some ensemble members show continued troughiness which could limit our temperatures and introduce showers into the forecast, but have favored the National Blend of Models as it factors in the difference ensemble solutions. Steep seas will persist south of Cape Blanco this morning and into the remainder of the day as a thermal trough builds into the coast.
High pressure just off the Northeast coast and a broad low over the Yucatan Peninsula have both aided in the tightening of the pressure gradient across the Keys over the past 24 hours. An area of low pressure may develop mid week a few hundred miles north of the central Bahamas towards mid week and move towards the north to central Florida coastline. This may result in a brief slackening of breezes before high pressure takes control again resulting in freshening east to southeasterly breezes late week.
657 AM EDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Typical summertime weather is on tap for today before strong high pressure builds in on Tuesday.
551 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 (Today and tonight) Oklahoma will exist between week southwesterly flow aloft to the north and an upper ridge to the south. it will be quiet windy today with a strong lee trough over eastern Colorado.
Coldest rural Nevada valleys could approach freezing. -Brisk North Winds Today: * A cold front will continue to track south across Nevada leaving brisk N-NW winds in its wake this afternoon. -Significant Cooldown Today and Tuesday: * Our recent cold front will usher in a much cooler air mass with today's high temperatures struggling to reach the 70 degree mark across W. Sierra valleys and even some colder lower valley such as the Carson and Smith valleys have a 40-60% chance of seeing several hours of freezing temperatures.
Longwave troughing is forecast to continue aloft well into the work week.
This afternoon the low pressure will continue its movement to the east. Although there will be little to no surface heating to power convection, this a very cold trough producing strong lapse rates in the upper atmosphere.
A trailing cold front will then push through the region, producing a long and narrow band of showers/storms during the afternoon/evening. Also of note, temperatures could approach the 90 degree mark with dew points in the low 70s resulting in heat indices near 95 degrees.
AC3 Slightly cooler conditions are expected today and tomorrow as a broad swath of rain moves in.
319 PM EDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Rain-free and seasonably warm conditions for much of this week as high pressure sits well offshore.
- Storm chances increase late Tue afternoon and evening over central KS along a slow moving cold front. Meanwhile, a cold front was draped across southern Nebraska extending northeastward into the Great Lakes area. The front over southern Nebraska will initially lift northward this evening as a warm front while a surge of cooler air is progged to impact the Central High Plains tonight. We continue to see stronger capping as you move further south with locations along and north of I-70 having the higher probabilities for showers and storms.
Not much other changes as upper level ridge holds tight over the Carolinas. Hot and humid again today with upper ridging across the region. Discussion: It will be hot and humid once again with a 500mb 595dam ridge centered over central North Carolina.
226 PM EDT Mon Jun 17 2024 High pressure will cover the region through the end of the week. Storm motion so far has mainly been slow to meandering a bit clockwise near the northern extent of the upper ridge center. Tuesday should have less shower/storm coverage and more confined to the northern CWA as the moisture axis looks to shift due to the parent upper ridge having some strengthening and a bit more NW slight progression. Meanwhile, an impressive upper level ridge will maintain control over the East Coast and suppress any chances of rain. Temperatures should slowly trend upward during this time with afternoon highs reaching the 80s for most locations along and west of the Blue Ridge and the lower 90s across the Piedmont.
A trough of low pressure across the West will be replaced with a strengthening ridge here in Southern California.
- Storm chances increase late Tue afternoon and evening over central KS along a slow moving cold front. At the surface, cold front extends from Northern IA into central Nebraska and into far nw KS, with elevated storms north of the front over northern Nebraska. By Tue morning, upper energy will be moving out into the Northern High Plains and at the same time cold front will slowly make its way south. For now will go with the thinking that locations along and north of I-70 will have the higher storm chances. On Wed, cold front, likely reinforced by outflow, will be draped across north- central KS which may allow some convection to linger, at least through the morning hours. By early Thu morning, upper troughing will continue to linger over the Great Basin into the Desert Southwest.