Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Highs today look hot and with dewpoints in the lower 70s, it will be very humid as well, leading to heat index values near 100. Highs in the low to mid 90s look likely, especially south of Highway 36. We actually could be in the low 90s by 18z.
In this wake of this leading MCS, training convection along a stationary front sustained by the low level jet with a precipitable water axis around 2. However, HREF probs from MVFR or lower conditions really lights up eastern Iowa, so we were not as aggressive with the lower cigs and vsbys as what the LAV has.
520 AM MDT Fri Jul 11 2025 - A cold front will bring a chance of thunderstorms and cooler temperatures today, mainly East of the Divide.
There may be a few strong storms this afternoon east of the Highway 301 corridor. No major changes to the temps in the lower to mid 90s, with heat indices of 105 likely in some areas today.
614 AM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025 (Today through Saturday) A stalled mid to upper-level trough axis will continue to provide a focus for numerous showers and storms this afternoon and evening. A deep-layer ridge will start to build across the region on Saturday, marking the beginning of a trend of increasing temps and decreasing rain chances.
550 AM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025 - Scattered showers and isolated storms will persist through the morning hours, mainly over the lower Missouri River Valley into northwest Iowa.
- Typical mid July weather expected Friday, with afternoon temperatures in the lower to mid 90s and light winds. - A cold front will arrive early in the weekend, providing a focus for scattered showers and thunderstorms Friday night into Saturday. - Cooler air behind the cold front will reduce Saturday afternoon temperatures to the lower to mid 80s.
Relatively cooler conditions will remain in place across central and northern Utah/ southwest Wyoming on Friday, with continued hot conditions expected across southern Utah.
545 AM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025 Weak mid-level low pressure remains sandwiched along the lower Texas coast with high pressure across the Desert SW and eastern Gulf into this weekend. At the surface, high pressure holds across the Gulf, with low pressure across northern Mexico, maintaining moderate to gusty southeasterly flow across Deep South Texas, especially Friday and Saturday.
- Cool and dry today, trending warmer this weekend.
A mid-level trough approaches the area from the northwest this afternoon and thunderstorm development is likely across northern Oklahoma with diurnal destabilization.
Sadly, these storms won't be cooling us off a lot with highs in the low 90s.
- Drier conditions prevail into the weekend, with cooler temperatures (highs in upper 70s to low 80s) on Saturday afternoon.
Per latest CAMs, and uptick in storm coverage is expected into the afternoon possibly due to an approaching convective vort max/MCV emanating from convection off the High Plains.
The added sunshine will bring a warmer afternoon with low 90s common away from the beaches. Not a whole lot of change for the second half of the weekend with weak flow aloft, Bermuda high pressure well offshore, and a thermal trough inland.
As of now, the higher concentration of convection is across the southshore or along and south of the I10 corridor. Coverage is mostly widely scattered, less than days past as an upper level ridge continues to retrograde into the region. Saturday looks to be a skosh warmer than today as the ridge continues to build further over the region. The ridge will help limit but not fully stop convection from developing.
* Things are heating up out there as a strong ridge expands over the region.
At the surface, a cold front is draped from northeast Kansas to the Oklahoma Panhandle as a second cold front spans from the Dakotas to the Nebraska Panhandle.
1245 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025 - Typical mid July weather expected Friday, with afternoon temperatures in the lower to mid 90s and light winds. - A cold front will arrive early in the weekend, providing a focus for scattered showers and thunderstorms Friday night into Saturday. - Cooler air behind the cold front will reduce Saturday afternoon temperatures to the lower to mid 80s.
Temperatures are expected to be slightly above normal with with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s today and lows tonight in the low 70s.
1115 AM MDT Fri Jul 11 2025 - A cold front will bring a chance of thunderstorms and cooler temperatures today, mainly East of the Divide.
The greatest coverage should be across the high terrain of the Cumberland Plateau, and the east TN, southwest NC, and southwest VA mountains. Hot conditions return as an upper ridge builds back into the region for the middle part of the work week, with heat indices in the mid 90s to near 100F becoming more common across valley locations.
Based on the how the forecast did yesterday, a few degree cooler than observations, and based on the 24 hour temp change so far this morning, running a few degrees warmer than this time yesterday, opted to bring today's Max T up by a few degree. Conditions will be cooler by the coast or where influenced by stratus, with highs varying from the upper 50s to low 70s.
237 PM MDT Fri Jul 11 2025 - Warmer (80s and 90s) and dry this weekend.
Breezy conditions prevail through the Cascade Gaps and into the Basin this afternoon in the wake of an upper-level trough that brought stronger winds to the forecast area last night. RHs will drop off over the weekend as a result of this building heat, stemming from a broad ridge building over the PacNW, but this ridge will help even out pressure gradients, keeping winds primarily thermally-induced through the Cascade Gaps.
Scattered thunderstorms can again be anticipated Saturday afternoon and evening, though coverage may begin to trend slightly downward as the midlevel subtropical ridge begins to build over the Southeast. Temperatures on Saturday will also begin to trend upward as ridging starts to build. Highs should step upward a couple of degrees as compared to today, largely into the low to mid 90s.
In addition to the low clouds at the coast smoke from the Nor Cal fires is drifting overhead around the Bay Area. Winds are forecast to become more onshore this afternoon, all the way through 850 hPa, which should shove the smoke to the east, but will also bring the low clouds in.
Overnight lows will be in the low to mid 70s, with daytime highs on Saturday warming into the lower to mid 90s.
- Remaining mild throughout with highs around the low to mid 90s.
- Cooler tomorrow with a lesser amount of showers and storms(some still strong w/locally heavy rain). The San Luis Valley may actually be warmer than the SE CO plains tomorrow due to the cooler air advecting onto the plains. There will likely be some showers and storms tomorrow, but once again it will be a late show due to the cooler air over the plains.
- Relatively cooler this weekend with building heat again to start the new work week.
Updated at 1151 AM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025 - Warm and humid conditions are expected across the Mid-South, with high temperatures generally in the low to mid 90s and heat index values in the low 100s.
A thermal trough will continue to strengthen over the next several days.
Current water vapor imagery and RAP upper air analysis indicates an upper level ridge across the region. This high pressure extends down to the surface with a weak high centered just to the west over the Gulf. Due to these factors, have the highest PoPs for these areas in the forecast for later this afternoon and into the evening. Similar conditions are forecast on Saturday the low level ridge begins to shift a bit more to the north and west. High temperatures will once again be in the low to mid 90s with heat indices in the 100-105 degree range.
Another upper trough and its associated surface cold front will move through the area on Saturday.
(This afternoon through Saturday) High pressure will slowly build over the area through the short term, with diurnal activity each day. A gradual warming trend will start tomorrow, with temperatures a degree or two warmer than today.
As we go overnight it will remain warm and muggy as lows will remain in the low/mid 70s but will remain dry. At the sfc, a cold front coming out of the Upper Midwest and central plains will be working towards the Ohio Valley. 75" to 2", highs will once again be in the low/mid 90s with dewpoints in the low/mid 70s allowing for fair amount of instability of around 2000 J/kg, and low amounts of shear thanks to a LLJ working over the area tomorrow afternoon and evening.
We'll get plenty unstable with 3-4K MUCAPEs during peak heating, although we think with the incoming storm chances ramping up the NBM might be a tad high with its high temps in the lower 90s. Not alot of overall shear but a little uptick with the wave and good lapse rates in excess of 7C in the lower 3KM just as the wave enters the forecast picture should be enough to offset, and soundings support wet microburst potential.
1042 AM MDT Fri Jul 11 2025 - Cool and dry today, trending warmer this weekend.
High pressure over the West Coast and Eastern Gulf will hold a mid-level disturbance over Deep South Texas into this weekend.
1240 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025 - Scattered showers and isolated storms will persist through the morning hours, mainly over the lower Missouri River Valley into northwest Iowa.
(Tonight through Saturday night) South-Central TX continues to be wedged between high pressure systems situated over the Southwest CONUS and another over the eastern Gulf into the Atlantic.
Despite instability waning this evening, the low level jet will be increasing which will increase shear to 30-35kts. Additionally, a cold front over Wisconsin will be pushed east by a stronger upper trough. However, if convection develops, it will likely be along a prefrontal trough after 17z across the southeast cwa. Once the cold front pushes east Saturday night, we'll see a few days of dry weather.
200 PM MDT Fri Jul 11 2025 KEY MESSAGES: 1) A cooler and dry day is expected today.
259 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025 - Lingering showers and storms behind the cold front in west central Minnnesota as the main severe threat moves off to the southeast. - Wildfire smoke will continue to degrade air quality behind a cold front today, remaining on and off into the weekend. Upper trough continues to wrap around the southeastern Saskatchewan/southwestern Manitoba border and the cold front has pushed through most of our CWA.
343 PM EDT Fri Jul 11 2025 An upper level trough exits the region this afternoon and evening to the Maritimes.
Afternoon showers and thunderstorms over the higher terrain have begun today, with support from weak moisture advection over the Divide, and are expected again tomorrow. High pressure centered to our southwest will keep temperatures above normal over the coming days. Widespread dry conditions will remain in place through the short term, and afternoon relative humidity values will fall below 15% for most of the CWA expect for the highest terrain.
Fog and low stratus will also be possible over portions of the Lower Susquehanna Valley as weak southeasterly flow transports moisture from the Atlantic into the region. The risk for severe gusts/hail remains low (general thunder from SPC), and the risk for flooding may be only a little higher but still only in the marginal category factoring in the lower shear (vs Fri) and slower cell movement, and the slightly lower PWAT values (1.
626 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025 (Tonight through Saturday night) South-Central TX continues to be wedged between high pressure systems situated over the Southwest CONUS and another over the eastern Gulf into the Atlantic.
749 PM MDT Fri Jul 11 2025 - Warmer (80s and 90s) and dry this weekend.
602 PM EDT Fri Jul 11 2025 An upper level trough exits the region this evening to the Maritimes.
617 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025 Updated at 614 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025 - Warm and humid conditions are expected across the Mid-South, with high temperatures generally in the low to mid 90s and heat index values in the low 100s.
We'll get plenty unstable with 3-4K MUCAPEs during peak heating, although we think with the incoming storm chances ramping up the NBM might be a tad high with its high temps in the lower 90s. Not a lot of overall shear but a little uptick with the wave and good lapse rates in excess of 7C in the lower 3KM just as the wave enters the forecast picture should be enough to offset, and soundings support wet microburst potential.
Bermuda high pressure remains well offshore this evening. A stationary and cold front are located well to our N and NW, producing widespread tstms near the Great Lakes region. A weak ridge has set up over the eastern CONUS aloft. Overnight lows in the lower 70s inland and mid 70s at the coast. Temperatures are still expected to be a few degrees cooler, regardless.
653 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025 - Lingering showers and storms behind the cold front in west central Minnnesota as the main severe threat moves off to the southeast. - Wildfire smoke will continue to degrade air quality behind a cold front today, remaining on and off into the weekend. Upper trough continues to wrap around the southeastern Saskatchewan/southwestern Manitoba border and the cold front has pushed through most of our CWA.
615 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025 High pressure over the West Coast and Eastern Gulf will hold a mid-level disturbance over Deep South Texas into this weekend.
Deep westerly flow and mid level ridging helping to suppress convective activity with only a slight chc into this evening. The added sunshine will bring a warmer afternoon with low 90s common away from the beaches. Not a whole lot of change for the second half of the weekend with weak flow aloft, Bermuda high pressure well offshore, and a thermal trough inland.
636 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025 (This afternoon through Saturday) High pressure will slowly build over the area through the short term, with diurnal activity each day. A gradual warming trend will start tomorrow, with temperatures a degree or two warmer than today.
Hot and dry conditions will continue tonight into the weekend as high pressure over the southwestern U.
A developing MCS was located over eastern IA/southwestern WI/northwestern IL, while a line of convection developed along a cold front in northern MN. While the higher potential for severe weather will remain well to the south of the forecast area, a threat for a narrow corridor of heavy rainfall is seeming more apparent as models indicate the deformation zone of the system will set up somewhere over the area tonight. Locations in north-central WI will see the lowest rainfall amounts (0. The aforementioned cold front in northern MN will be the feature of concern for Saturday as it tracks across the forecast area.
This is due to the enhanced scattering provided by smoke particles in the lower atmosphere as the sun sets, enhancing the red color of the sun as it sets towards the west. In addition to the low clouds at the coast smoke from the Nor Cal fires is drifting overhead around the Bay Area. Winds are forecast to become more onshore this afternoon, all the way through 850 hPa, which should shove the smoke to the east, but will also bring the low clouds in.
228 AM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025 Although an upper level trough will try to drop into our region from the northwest this weekend, high pressure surface and aloft to our southeast with not only hang tough but actually strengthen over our CWA. With the lower rain chances and warmer temperatures topping out in the low to mid 90s, heat stress concerns will increase in our west along the Mississippi river especially.
High pressure surface and aloft will hold over the region today. The gradient remains weak with the ridge axis generally across the central Florida peninsula. Southwest Florida will be on the south side of the ridge axis with light southeast flow to start the day.
Following the severe weather threat into this evening, some widely scattered showers and storms may persist across the area overnight into early Saturday morning just in advance of the approaching mid-level trough moving into northern IL. The threat of scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue on Saturday as the area remains in a very warm and moist low-level airmass in advance of an approaching cold front and a second northern stream impulse. Accordingly, we anticipate widely scattered showers and storms to once again develop in the afternoon with the front as the low-level airmass destabilizes.
H500 trough will persist across portions of the Southern Plains and Lower MS River Valley the next few days as it finds itself between tow separate ridges across the SW and SE US. At the sfc, a cold front will approach from the NW as well. With the mid-level trough in place and unseasonably high moisture across much of the region, an increase in showers/storms is expected as daytime heating occurs.
- Rainfall and much cooler air are expected behind the cold front Saturday, with afternoon temperatures well below July normals.
1017 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025 - Wildfire smoke will continue to degrade air quality behind a cold front today, remaining on and off into the weekend. Upper trough continues to wrap around the southeastern Saskatchewan/southwestern Manitoba border and the cold front has pushed through most of our CWA.
115 AM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025 Although an upper level trough will try to drop into our region from the northwest this weekend, high pressure surface and aloft to our southeast with not only hang tough but actually strengthen over our CWA. With the lower rain chances and warmer temperatures topping out in the low to mid 90s, heat stress concerns will increase in our west along the Mississippi river especially.
227 AM MDT Sat Jul 12 2025 - A cooler and drier day is forecast for today with highs around 80. - Warmer temperatures in the 90s and generally dry conditions are forecast through Mon/Tues. All the precipitation should end by about sunrise as the upper trough continues to push east. For the daytime hours, a cooler and clearer day is forecast on the back side of the surface cold front and upper trough. This evening and into tonight, there is about a 20% chance that maybe a few showers or storms could graze Eastern Colorado with the usual precipitation that forms in the higher terrain.
The cams continue to show a rapid demise of the High Plains MCS as it rolls eastward during the predawn hours with little large-scale support for redevelopment evident. As we move into the early afternoon hours, the cap is progged to weaken with increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms impacting southern Kansas through the afternoon and evening hours as the mid/upper trough rotates over the area. A weakness in the subtropical ridge will remain over the Southern and portions of the Central Plains as we move into Sun-Tue with a buoyant and weakly capped airmass leading to afternoon showers and storms through the period with the better chances lingering across southeast KS during the afternoon hours. Below normal highs will persist through Tue while gradually climbing back into the lower 90s as head towards the middle of the week.
After a very active period of severe thunderstorms and major flash flooding over the last few days, mostly dry conditions are expected this weekend as drier air filters in behind a cold front that will continue to sweep through the area from the northwest. Global model guidance are in pretty good agreement with a mid-level trough skimming the area to the north this afternoon into the evening, which could provide enough lift to generate a low chance of showers (10-30%). More seasonal temperatures are expected today, with highs in the lower 80s.
143 AM MDT Sat Jul 12 2025 - Warmer (80s and 90s) and dry this weekend.
202 AM MDT Sat Jul 12 2025 - A cooler and drier day is forecast with highs around 80 and storms generally west of the area. - Warmer temperatures in the 90s and generally dry conditions are forecast through Mon/Tues. All the precipitation should end by about sunrise as the upper trough continues to push east. For the daytime hours, a cooler and clearer day is forecast on the back side of the surface cold front and upper trough. This evening and into tonight, there is about a 20% chance that maybe a few showers or storms could graze Eastern Colorado with the usual precipitation that forms in the higher terrain.
1107 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025 - Wildfire smoke will continue to degrade air quality behind a cold front today, remaining on and off into the weekend. Upper trough continues to wrap around the southeastern Saskatchewan/southwestern Manitoba border and the cold front has pushed through most of our CWA.
This can be seen in the higher tilts of those offices radar, as guidance over the last 4 hours has started to pick up on this amplification.
For this afternoon and evening, an upper trough will be positioned atop the Midwest and western Great Lakes region with ridging over the eastern and western CONUS. A vort max is expected to round the base of the trough enhancing effective shear to 15-20kts per latest RAP and NAMBufr soundings. Overall, the threat is still on the low side but just something to keep in mind.
Afternoon temperatures will combine with the humidity to create heat indices at many locations in the lowlands in the upper 90s.
The wave-train with very small upper level waves looks a little mis-timed for peak heating today but 91-94 F with dewpoints in the mid 70s and rich moisture through the lowest 100mb or so should result in about 2500-3000 J/kg of MLCAPE by the afternoon.
(Today and tonight) An H5 ridge across the southern Gulf expands across the eastern Gulf later today. Temperatures climb back into the middle 90s across most of the area with a 592-593dm H5 ridge nearby; one or two locations may flirt with Head Advisory levels (heat indices at or above 108 degrees), but held off on issuing one as confidence and areal coverage wasn't high enough at this time.
1057 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025 Updated at 1049 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025 - Warm and humid conditions are expected across the Mid-South, with high temperatures generally in the low to mid 90s and heat index values in the low 100s.
- Cooler than normal temperatures expected through the weekend. A high pressure system remains to our west over the coast of SoCal and a secondary high persists to our east over the Gulf Coast states. A positively tilted trough sits in between the two upper highs directly over the Great Plains. Upper level flow will gradually shift from northwest to north as the upper trough expands over portions of Texas Panhandle and North Texas through the day. Following the outflow, a cold front is progged to track southward through the CWA tomorrow morning. Cooler air following the front and mostly cloudy skies will cool temperatures about 10 degrees below normal with highs in the 80s. Current models have the cold front surging out of the CWA keeping all thunderstorms just south of the CWA.
With the approaching trough and afternoon destabilization, thunderstorm development is expected near convective outflow from morning thunderstorms across our north and ahead of the approaching trough to our west. Late tonight and into early Saturday morning, thunderstorms gradually shift eastward, along with the trough and precipitation tapers off by midnight with any lingering showers and thunderstorms dissipating after midnight. Patchy fog may develop behind this rainfall with plentiful moisture and cooler temperatures filling in behind this activity.
pdf A moist West to Southwest steering flow today becomes more Northwesterly tonight, but overall sensible weather remains similar with highs into the lower/middle 90s with peak heat indices in the 104-108F range, just below heat advisory criteria. Convection weakens and fades after sunset Saturday Night, with fair skies and lows in the lower/middle 70s inland and upper 70s along the Atlantic Coast.
- Warm and humid conditions are expected across the Mid-South, with high temperatures generally in the low to mid 90s and heat index values in the low 100s.