Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Trended 2-3 degrees warmer than CONSShort guidance, consistent with values advertised in the overnight forecast package.
1249 PM EST Sat Mar 2 2024 High level clouds associated with convection over the Gulf continue to stream across the area this morning as a mid level trough approaches the FL peninsula.
Despite abundant mid-level cloud cover, temperatures should easily recover to the lower 80s in mean southeast to south steering flow. High pressure centered east of New England will continue to slide eastward into the western North Atlantic through Sunday.
1118 AM CST Sat Mar 2 2024 Surface analysis late this morning places a 1022 mb ridge of high pressure centered over the Tennessee Valley and Southeast United States.
445 PM MST Sat Mar 2 2024 Aviation Section Updated Bands of moderate to heavy snow will continue to push through the area this afternoon and evening as an upper level trough pushes into the area. Cool and unsettled weather will continue into the first half of the week, before warmer and drier weather moves in for the latter half.
747 PM EST Sat Mar 2 2024 Rain will taper off this evening as a low pressure system departs the area.
Clouds will begin to move in from the southwest overnight as a warm front gets closer to our area. Warm front will slowly move into the area by tomorrow morning and mosey on through during day, allowing temps to creep up a bit more than today. On the plus side, temperatures are quite a bit warmer today than they have been the last few days.
408 PM EST Sat Mar 2 2024 Rain will taper off this evening as a low pressure system departs the area.
242 PM MST Sat Mar 2 2024 Bands of moderate to heavy snow will continue to push through the area this afternoon and evening as an upper level trough pushes into the area. Cool and unsettled weather will continue into the first half of the week, before warmer and drier weather moves in for the latter half.
645 PM EST Sat Mar 2 2024 Rain will taper off this evening as a low pressure system departs the area.
850 PM EST Sat Mar 2 2024 After some fog develops tonight, high pressure will bring dry conditions for Sunday.
Tomorrow will see the upper level ridging responsible for our recent warming trend already having moved on to the east, making room for a vast area of upper level troughing to dig south across the Plains as it pushes east from the Rockies. The latest timing guidance suggests that the system this trough swings into the region should not arrive until near dawn, mostly being evident by increasing clouds through the late evening, becoming steadily overcast during the night while lows are kept well above average in the upper 50s and lower 60s.
Warmer and mostly sunny conditions for Sunday with high temperatures 10 to 15 degrees above normal. If the low-clouds do erode out as planned, then patchy areas of dense fog is expected late tonight and early Sunday morning. Return of sunshine and ridging aloft over the southern Appalachians will allow temperatures to warm nicely.
458 PM CST Sat Mar 2 2024 (Tonight) Breaks in the low clouds/stratus continue to develop across much of the mid TN Valley heading more into the afternoon hrs this Sat, as moisture below H85 diminishes further. Weak upper ridging gradually moving east over much of the region is also resulting in a weak subsidence pattern, further aiding the trend in decreasing cloud cover. High pressure anchored over the northern/mid Atlantic states is providing for a persistent SE/S flow as well, which is allowing current temps to rebound into the upper 50s/near 60F. This return flow pattern should eventually result in highs later today climbing mainly into the lower/mid 60s for most spots.
However the the expected gusty winds producing areas of blowing and drifting snow, along with potential for freezing rain, or wet snow melting and refreezing with keep headlines in place.
337 PM CST Sat Mar 2 2024 Tonight through Sunday: Overall, a warmer weather pattern is taking shape, and dense fog will continue to be a concern as we go through the near term.
622 PM MST Sat Mar 2 2024 145 PM MST Sat Mar 2 2024 -Windy conditions tonight and Sunday with elevated fire weather conditions -Unsettled and cooler weather starting Sunday Current surface map places low across north central Wyoming with warm front across northeast Wyoming into southwest South Dakota. Warm front will continue to lift north this afternoon/evening, with increasing southwest winds. Pressure fall/rise couplet behind cold front front peaks Sunday morning, with best pressure rises east of the area Sunday afternoon. with around an inch of snow for the higher elevations of the Black Hills. Flattish northern stream trof sits along the Canadian border through mid week with frontal boundary lingering across the area.
822 PM CST Sat Mar 2 2024 Cloud cover will increase overnight as a warm front approaches the Mid-South. High pressure will continue to build into the Mid-South on Sunday, resulting in afternoon temperatures in the mid to upper 70s.
Most of the precipitation is falling as virga for now in our area, but could begin reaching the ground as the lower levels become more saturated. As the area of forcing moves off to the northeast into Canada, it will be immediately followed by a weak low pressure system below an upper level trough. Continued southerly flow aloft ahead of the system will lead to much warmer than average temperatures throughout Sunday. There is the potential to break high temperature records in areas along and south of Highway 2, with highs expected to be in the low 60s. Gusts up to 25 kts and waves up to 7 ft are expected in the near shore waters as a low pressure system moves through the Northern Plains.
750 PM CST Sat Mar 2 2024 Tonight through Sunday: Overall, a warmer weather pattern is taking shape, and dense fog will continue to be a concern as we go through the near term.
620 PM EST Sat Mar 2 2024 After some fog develops tonight, high pressure will bring dry conditions for Sunday.
606 PM CST Sat Mar 2 2024 Tonight through Sunday: Overall, a warmer weather pattern is taking shape, and dense fog will continue to be a concern as we go through the near term.
423 PM MST Sat Mar 2 2024 145 PM MST Sat Mar 2 2024 -Windy conditions tonight and Sunday with elevated fire weather conditions -Unsettled and cooler weather starting Sunday Current surface map places low across north central Wyoming with warm front across northeast Wyoming into southwest South Dakota. Warm front will continue to lift north this afternoon/evening, with increasing southwest winds. Pressure fall/rise couplet behind cold front front peaks Sunday morning, with best pressure rises east of the area Sunday afternoon. with around an inch of snow for the higher elevations of the Black Hills. Flattish northern stream trof sits along the Canadian border through mid week with frontal boundary lingering across the area.
- Showers and storms associated with the approaching low pressure begin over the higher terrain today, and become widespread by tomorrow morning.
630 AM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025 - Fair weather remains with slightly above average temperatures and low (0-20%) rain chances over the next 7 days, with no significant impacts expected (Today through Saturday) Sub-tropical ridging gradually erodes into the weekend as a weak upper level low slowly begins to establish across the northern Gulf coast states/waters. This area of low pressure looks to help advance some slightly greater moisture into Texas.
545 AM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025 (Today) Current temperatures are in the lower 60s across the Tennessee Valley.
729 AM EDT Fri Oct 3 2025 (Today through Saturday) An area of low pressure to the east of South Florida will continue to support wet and unsettled conditions across the area through the short term period. Satellite and radar imagery show the low sitting between the Florida peninsula and the Bahamas early this morning, and rain gauge data indicate the rainbands along the low dropped widespread 1-3 inches of rain across southeast FL overnight, with isolated spots up to 5 inches. Highs will top out in the upper 80s and low 90s, while overnight lows will stay in the low to mid 70s across the whole area.
620 AM EDT Fri Oct 3 2025 Canadian high pressure will build across the eastern US, then offshore, through the weekend. Underneath a 588 dm ridge, Canadian high pressure will remain entrenched over the region, maintaining a dry and stable airmass over central NC. Forecast guidance suggests a very modest increase in low-level thicknesses, supporting highs similar to or a few degree warmers than yesterday, particularly across the Sandhills and coastal plain where stratocumulus was more pronounced yesterday. Lows in the lower to mid 50s, and some mid/upper 40s possible in more rural outlying areas. Canadian high pressure extending over the region will begin to moderate as the parent high center drifts south over the southern mid-Atlantic and DELMARVA region. Aloft, ridging and associated synoptic scale subsidence will persist.
Mid level ridging will suppress any chance at convection and clouds. A dry airmass will allow temperatures to climb into the 90s for most locations outside of the higher terrain. the lower dewpoints will make for very nice mornings with lows in the 60s for most, 50s in the mountains.
327 AM PDT Fri Oct 3 2025 Cooler and breezy today with southwest to west winds for the mountains and deserts for this afternoon and evening gusting to 35 to 45 mph with gusts to 65 mph in the northern Coachella Valley below the San Gorgonio Pass.
-High pressure continues quiet weather this weekend with temperatures building to near record breaking warmth.
This Weekendâ¦ Broad mid-level high pressure over the Ohio River Valley and mid-level low pressure over the Central Gulf will look to largely remain in place through the weekend, supporting low- level easterly flow across the Gulf. Additionally, this low level easterly flow will continue to advect additional moisture to the region, presenting the opportunity for daily isolated to scattered showers along the afternoon sea breeze.
126 PM PDT Fri Oct 3 2025 * Showers continue today as a low pressure system moves across the region. * Temperatures remain below average through the upcoming week, with today seeing the lowest temperatures along with light snow above 8000 ft. As the recent low pressure system migrates across the California/Nevada border this afternoon, showers and snow chances will persist. 5" up to 3" for the highest elevations) found along the Sierra from the Tahoe Basin south into Mono County. The exit of the low will allow for some drier air to filter in behind the system.
146 PM EDT Fri Oct 3 2025 High pressure continues to dominate the forecast the next few days, while temperatures slowly warm up through the weekend.
A slight weakening of the low-level thermal ridge *may* allow highs to drop a degree or two on Saturday.
- Showers and a few storms graze the high country tonight, but become more numerous Saturday.
(Rest of Today and Tonight) High pressure will slowly shift east off the northeast Atlantic coast today but the effects of CAD will continue to keep a relatively cool and dry airmass over the region. Highs this afternoon will top out in the lower 80s with upper 70s highs in the higher terrain.
1028 AM PDT Fri Oct 3 2025 * A low pressure system will bring gusty southwest winds to the region today, with increased precipitation chances for the Great Basin and eastern Sierra.
A strong trough moving across the central Sierras and into southern Nevada today is responsible for our windy conditions. This trough also pulled up some moisture into eastern Arizona and some isolated convection has developed. The trough passes to our north overnight and our gradients basically collapse over the weekend.
The remainder of the afternoon through the overnight period should be dry and comfortable compared to the warmer temperatures experienced recently. Previous discussion: High pressure will slowly shift east off the northeast Atlantic coast today but the effects of CAD will continue to keep a relatively cool and dry airmass over the region. Highs this afternoon will top out in the lower 80s with upper 70s highs in the higher terrain.
141 PM EDT Fri Oct 3 2025 High pressure will remain the dominant weather feature through this weekend with temperatures climbing well above normal, with some daily record high temperatures in jeopardy.
Clear skies will continue, as an upper level ridge remains over our area with associated subsidence and drier air in place. Expect overnight lows to be mostly in the lower 60s in our southern and Heartland counties, in the mid 60s in the Concho Valley, and mid to upper 60s in the Big Country.
1205 PM EDT Fri Oct 3 2025 Canadian high pressure will build across the eastern US, then offshore, through the weekend. Underneath a 588 dm ridge, Canadian high pressure will remain entrenched over the region, maintaining a dry and stable airmass over central NC. Forecast guidance suggests a very modest increase in low-level thicknesses, supporting highs similar to or a few degree warmers than yesterday, particularly across the Sandhills and coastal plain where stratocumulus was more pronounced yesterday. Lows in the lower to mid 50s, and some mid/upper 40s possible in more rural outlying areas. Canadian high pressure extending over the region will begin to moderate as the parent high center drifts south over the southern mid-Atlantic and DELMARVA region. Aloft, ridging and associated synoptic scale subsidence will persist.
An upper trough will continue to progress eastward over central California and Nevada today and will skirt by to the north of the are Saturday. Lee troughing in northeast CO will set up Saturday afternoon allowing for breezy southwest winds.
Updated at 1145 AM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025 - Dry with warmer than normal temperatures through this weekend.
223 PM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025 - Above normal temperatures will continue through the weekend, with cooler readings expected for Tue into Wed.
1156 AM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025 (Rest of Today and Tonight) High pressure will slowly shift east off the northeast Atlantic coast today but the effects of CAD will continue to keep a relatively cool and dry airmass over the region. Highs this afternoon will top out in the lower 80s with upper 70s highs in the higher terrain.
1228 PM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025 Updated at 1227 PM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025 - Dry with warmer than normal temperatures through this weekend.
Cooler conditions today, with weak offshore winds and warming west of the mountains Saturday. The upper level low moving through California today will quickly move into Nevada Saturday. High temperatures will warm a few degrees west of the mountains tomorrow, with the deserts a few degrees cooler.
This ridge axis will keep temperatures in the mid to upper 80s this afternoon. Its approach will further strengthen the surface pressure gradient and the low-level wind profile.
That along with partly to mostly cloudy skies has kept temperatures in the lower 80s with some values in the upper 70s where rain is either falling or freshly fell. High pressure reaching down along the Eastern Seaboard is our main supplier of easterly breezes. From synopsis, high pressure is slowly moving across the eastern U. This high will build into the western North Atlantic, leading to freshening northeast to east breezes into Friday evening.
An upper level ridge of high pressure will remain over the region through this weekend. An upper level trough currently across the west coast will move northeast into and across the Plains this weekend. The warmer air mass will remain over the area as highs in the middle to upper 80s continue each afternoon this weekend. Lows will only cool into the upper 50s to the lower 60s this weekend. Southerly winds will also occur through the weekend and will increase some across the area ahead of the upper level trough.
Cooler conditions today, with weak offshore winds and warming west of the mountains Saturday. The upper level low that will move through California today will quickly move into Nevada Saturday. High temperatures will warm a few degrees west of the mountains tomorrow, with the deserts still a few degrees cooler.
Meanwhile, an upper low in Calif is moving eastward and will continue showers across our southern-most zones, and a weak secondary cold front from the northwest will maintain the showers and a 20 percent chance of thunderstorms in southeast OR through about 8 PM PDT. Then clearing and cooler.
- Showers and storms associated with the approaching low pressure have begun over the higher terrain today, and will become widespread by tomorrow morning.
623 PM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025 Updated at 619 PM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025 - Dry with warmer than normal temperatures through this weekend.
628 PM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025 - Above normal temperatures will continue through the weekend, with cooler readings expected for Tue into Wed.
On Saturday, the 5h low will move little on Saturday with the surface and 8h ridges will pivot just a bit veering low level flow just a bit more to the southeast. Afternoon highs will be in the lower to middle 80s.
Tight pressure gradient remains over the Florida peninsula due to strong high pressure to the north and the stationary boundary to the south.
However, the lower levels have moistened some. The strong high will remain to our north and weak troughing, while edging closer, will remain over the Bahamas. The combination of strong high pressure over the eastern United States and a weak trough over the Bahamas is resulting in moderate to fresh northeast to easterly breezes across Keys waters.
220 PM PDT Fri Oct 3 2025 * A low pressure system will bring gusty southwest winds to the region into tonight, with a few showers possible over the far southern Great Basin and Sierra.
242 PM PDT Fri Oct 3 2025 * A low pressure system will bring gusty southwest winds to the region into tonight, with a few showers possible over the far southern Great Basin and Sierra.
633 PM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025 Updated at 628 PM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025 - Dry with warmer than normal temperatures through this weekend.
- Trough the weekend, valley fog is likely to develop each night.
Considerable HREF probability of ceilings less than 2,000 and 1,000 feet are faily well removed from the terminal vicinities, mostly over the higher terrain Saturday morning, so any stratus near the BDN and RDM terminals will lean VFR.
Partial clearing of upslope stratus across central and eastern Oregon should facilitate some chilly overnight lows for climatologically cold-prone locations of central Oregon and the high valleys of the Blue Mountains.
1017 PM PDT Fri Oct 3 2025 * A low pressure system will bring gusty southwest winds to the region into tonight, with a few showers possible over the far southern Great Basin and Sierra.
1233 AM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025 - Above normal temperatures will continue through the weekend, with cooler readings expected for Tue into Wed.
Meanwhile, a weak area of low pressure located near the central and northwestern Bahamas has not moved since developing yesterday. This feature continues to weaken the southwestern flank of a broad high pressure that is anchored over the eastern half of the U. The aforementioned area of low pressure near the Bahamas is expected to drift west-northwestward across the northwestern Bahamas and toward southern Florida during the next couple of days. Strong upper-level winds are expected to prevent significant development of the low.
High pressure at the surface will remain wedged into the region from the northeast through early in the work week. Low pressure aloft will assert itself across the region this weekend. However, it'll weaken early in the week, allowing high pressure aloft to build into the region from the east.
With the ridge axis directly north of Michigan today, temperatures once again climb well above normal with highs reaching near record warmth this weekend.
Cooler conditions today, with weak offshore winds and warming west of the mountains Saturday. This evening, patchy clouds have developed along inland foothills and over mountain ridges, characteristic of a sweeping trough through the region. Gusty west winds continue with gusts still up to 45 mph in the Coachella valley and up to 55 mph over mountain ridges and through the Banning Pass, as of 8PM. Highs Saturday remain on track to be slightly warmer than today's. The upper level low moving through California today will quickly move into Nevada Saturday. High temperatures will warm a few degrees west of the mountains tomorrow, with the deserts a few degrees cooler.
The upper level ridge that has been in place over west and northwest Texas will weaken today, as an upper trough shifts east into the Rockies. Lows tonight are expected to be mostly in the lower to mid 60s.
Low pressure will essentially remain locked across the Gulf and far southeastern US with days of unsettled weather expected.
(This evening through Saturday) High pressure will remain the dominant feature across the region.
An upper level trough has organized over the north-central and northeastern Gulf coast.
- Slightly cooler weather and a chance of rain enters the forecast during the early to middle part of this coming week. Meanwhile, a broad and more disorganized area of upper troughing persists over the Gulf Coast. The net result will be a modest strengthening of southwest flow aloft over our area through the course of today as the ridge collapses.
The upper level ridge dominating the Tennessee Valley will gradually shift east through the day today. Guidance suggests that the upper low over the Gulf coast will eventually be ingested into an incoming trough over the western CONUS later this weekend.
The upper level ridge dominating the Tennessee Valley will gradually shift east through the day today. Guidance suggests that the upper low over the Gulf coast will eventually be ingested into an incoming trough over the western CONUS later this weekend. Overall, for today, no rain is forecast and highs are expected to reach the lower to mid 80s later this afternoon.
- Rain returns to the forecast - Cold front brings the rain and cooler temps (Rest of tonight through Saturday) Overnight, persistence remains the best forecast. 500 mb high pressure ridge is centered across central Oklahoma, keeping skies clear for now, and also keeping wind speeds generally light. By Saturday afternoon, this ridge will ever so slowly begin to break down, allowing for more westerly winds (at 500mb) to cross the Rocky Mountains. This will help strengthen the lee trough slightly, but just enough to cause the winds over Oklahoma and western north Texas to increase. Currently, there is a fairly strong cold front in western Canada making its way to the south.
WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO Morning water vapor imagery shows the upper level trough axis moving into the Colorado River Valley. Winds will continue to weaken through the morning as the trough moves off to the east and surface pressure gradients relax and turn weakly offshore to the north.
The next significant chance of rain comes mid- week as a cold front sweeps through the forecast area, followed by a reinforcing shot of cooler and dry air. Ridging over the area will generally suppress convective development despite the increase in moisture.
With the ridge axis directly north of Michigan today, temperatures once again climb well above normal with highs reaching near record warmth this weekend. SSW pressure graident force winds begin to increase as upstream troughing pattern progresses eastward. Surface winds and wind gusts remain relatively low with overland speeds at less than 10 knots gusting to the low teens. Midlevel ridging pattern will provide the northwoods with one more day of above average warmth. Probabilities of record breaking heights remain low (20-40%), but temps reaching the low 80s for the majority of interior northern lower and mid to upper 70s for areas near the shorelines.