Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
The question is how long the lower level moisture will linger and keep clouds over the area. With the upper pattern forecast to keep northwest flow over the area as the ridge slowly amplifies and the surface pressure field forecast to become broader, winds should remain a bit on the lighter side from the north around 5 to 15 mph. We will have a high pressure system over the Four Corners region with low pressure to the northeast of the Great Plains. We do look to have a few cold fronts moving through the area, which would provide enough lift to start off precipitation, if the other two ingredients are in place.
823 AM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025 Unsettled pattern with previously advertised wetter and relatively cooler conditions will settle into the area today in association with a stalled surface boundary and westerly flow aloft south of E CONUS longwave troughing. In response, high temps would likely warm a few degrees back into the lower 90s, after being limited mainly to the upper 80s today through mid week due to the anticipated additional cloudiness. Scattered to numerous storms likely each day, with the greatest potential for storms near the coast generally in the morning to early afternoon, with the higher chances inland during the afternoon and evening across the interior.
(Today) The center of a large area of high pressure continues to be anchored over the Great Lakes region and northeast. It will be cool for this time of year when you wake up though on Sunday with lows dropping into the lower to mid 50s in many areas (with some 55 to 60 lows in other areas).
701 AM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025 (Today through Monday) A prolonged period of unsettled weather will continue across South Florida as deep upper-level troughing remains established over the Eastern Seaboard. Satellite imagery early this morning shows the trough axis has ejected over the western Atlantic, while a corresponding surface boundary gradually drifts southward along the Florida peninsula. Highs this weekend will remain in the low-mid 90s, while lows could dip to the low-mid 70s overnight.
625 AM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025 High pressure brings dry conditions and comfortable temperatures through midweek.
706 AM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025 Drier conditions will persist through the remainder of the forecast as upper troughing continues to trend stronger across the eastern US. With a large upper cutoff low over the Great Lakes and high pressure over the western US, dry northwesterly flow aloft will persist Sunday through most of the week.
(Rest of Today and Tonight) High pressure at the surface will gradually shift a little further to the east today, but still remain the dominant weather feature across the Tennessee Valley. Low temperatures in the lower 60s will be common again.
The highest overall rain chances remain south of I-90, however scattered afternoon/evening showers and storms will occur farther to the north.
633 AM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025 High pressure will remain across the region through Monday. Some showers will develop mid week ahead of a cold front. A large area of high pressure will sprawl from the Great Lakes thru New England. Lows overnight to drop to readings ranging from the upper 40s in rural protected locations to the lower 50s in urban areas. Highs on Monday to range from the upper 70s to the lower 80s. On Monday evening, a broad and weak upper low will be centered over Pennsylvania, with an overall pattern of upper troughing still in place across much of the eastern CONUS.
615 AM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025 (Today) The center of a large area of high pressure continues to be anchored over the Great Lakes region and northeast. It will be cool for this time of year when you wake up though on Sunday with lows dropping into the lower to mid 50s in many areas (with some 55 to 60 lows in other areas).
This, along with upper level troughing, will keep precip to our south over the marine zones. The upper level troughing extends south on Monday; which will push the stationary boundary further south into the Gulf.
1130 AM MDT Sun Aug 31 2025 - Mostly dry weather and gradually warmer temps continue through Labor Day. Ridge axis is centered directly overhead today and all models agree that we should see no showers or thunderstorms today. High temps today were a degree or two warmer than the NBM forecast once again. With that said, we're likely looking at solid mid 80s for most of the communities across the Snake Plain and Magic Valley today with highs in the lower 80s for communities in the mountains and highlands. Most of the week remains under the influence of amplified ridge of high pressure across the west.
Upper troughing remains persistent across the eastern CONUS with our forecast area residing on the backside of this trough and northwest flow aloft prevailing.
The highest overall rain chances remain south of I-90, however isolated to scattered afternoon/evening showers and storms will occur farther to the north.
With the lower dew points of late, humidity has not been as much of a player in the weather.
High pressure is centered over central Arizona this afternoon, with warm temperatures and mostly sunny skies for most areas. There is good model agreement that the center of high pressure will drift northward up into Utah over the next few days would be favorable for advecting some of the deeper moisture northward as well.
201 PM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025 High pressure will bring mostly dry days into the 70s and cool nights. High pressure shifts offshore mid week as a trough swings through the Great Lakes. This trough will send a frontal system towards New England late in the week for the next chance at some wetting rains. Tonight high pressure builds in and good conditions for radiational cooling will be in place. As high pressure drifts east a bit the sea breezes will push farther inland than today. But with temps already cooler and waters as warm as they typically get there will not be much change across the sea breeze front besides a stronger breeze.
Cooler temperatures make a return for the upcoming week.
102 PM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025 (Today through Monday) The pattern remains mostly unchanged today with broad 500mb ridging locked over the Desert Southwest and persistent troughing affecting the eastern CONUS.
123 PM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025 High pressure will allow dry conditions and comfortable temperatures to persist through midweek.
315 PM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025 Seasonable afternoon high temperatures through the middle of this week with cooler temperatures for the end of the week. A chilly night is still in store for the southern Adirondacks as mostly clear skies contribute to overnight low temperatures in the low 40s and upper 30s.
- Warmer Monday with highs back in the 80s to near 90.
The motion of this low is slow, however, and while it remains in the vicinity of the PacNW, moisture will continue to pump inland.
124 PM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025 High pressure will remain across the region through Monday. Some showers will develop mid week ahead of a cold front. High pressure centered over the Great Lakes will keep dry northeast flow across the region. The trend of temperatures being slightly warmer than the previous day/night will continue. At the surface, an inverted trough will develop into the area with some moisture return focused along it.
Overnight low temperatures will gradually fall into the lower 60s in most locations by early Monday morning.
147 PM MDT Sun Aug 31 2025 - Mostly dry weather and gradually warmer temps continue through Labor Day. Upper ridge extending north into East Idaho this afternoon per satellite imagery. Ridge continues to amplify into Labor Day across the region, with dry conditions continuing. Ensembles maintain strong ridge through the Great Basin and East Idaho for the next several days.
208 PM MDT Sun Aug 31 2025 - 2-3F warmer tomorrow and a bit drier region-wide. The main change is it will be 2-3F warmer region-wide and will be a bit drier.
146 PM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025 After a period of cooler days, warmer weather is expected to open the month of September.
Instability for the convection to work with is limited (MUCAPE between 250-750 J/kg), but differential heating over the terrain and convergence along outflow boundaries should continue to provide the low level support needed for convection through this evening. However, it shouldn't be widespread due to vertically challenged CAPE profiles that are largely below the freezing level. Afternoon highs temperatures will be in the lower 80s for most, with 70s occurring at elevations above 2500 ft in the mountains.
1224 PM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025 Upper troughing remains persistent across the eastern CONUS with our forecast area residing on the backside of this trough and northwest flow aloft prevailing.
Temperatures today will remain on the cooler side, low 80s to low 90s, given the potential for widespread cloud cover and shower coverage today. However, if conditions become less cloudy and there is less shower coverage, temperatures could end up warmer today.
A strong ridge continues to build across the Pacific Northwest and will hold in place through Labor Day. Although CAPE values remain minimal at around 50 to 100 J/kg, temperatures will be a few degrees warmer today. Given the recent trend of thunderstorms developing over higher terrain, POPs have been adjusted to include a thunderstorm mention across Harney County and the higher terrain of Baker County, in line with the majority of high resolution guidance. Smoke from fires in central Oregon has increased across the area this morning as it is being recirculated around the ridge from the east.
A low pressure system continued to drift across the forecast area today, bringing a smattering of rain showers to the region.
1144 AM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025 (Rest of Today and Tonight) High pressure at the surface will gradually shift a little further to the east today, but still remain the dominant weather feature across the Tennessee Valley. Low temperatures in the lower 60s will be common again.
(This evening through Monday night) The stalled front that has been draped just off of the SE LA coast continues to slowly move south farther into the Gulf today as the upper-level trough axis swings southward through the Mid-Atlantic region. The mid-level moisture gradient looks to stay along the coast tomorrow as we still have a more westerly component to the upper- level flow as the center of the trough over the Northeast US meanders and pivots.
Tomorrow night, looks to cool into the low to mid 50s and fog once again will be possible, although it may form earlier in the night. We will have a high pressure system over the Four Corners region with low pressure to the northeast of the Great Plains. We do look to have a few cold fronts moving through the area, which would provide enough lift to start off precipitation, if the other two ingredients are in place.
128 PM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025 Dry weather opens up the month of September amid high pressure. Better rain chances arrive mid week ahead of a cold front. A pleasant afternoon is underway for most of the forecast area today under the guise of nearby high pressure. The month of September opens up with the continuation of mostly quiet weather with the support of high pressure parked over the Great Lakes region. Temperatures will adjust up a degree or two between this afternoon and Monday, with a few spots in the Tri-State area settling into the low 80s.
204 PM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025 High pressure will extend across the area through mid week while a stationary front lingers just off the coast. A cold front could pass through the region by the end of the week. A deep layer upper trough will remain anchored over the eastern U. At the surface, a wedge of high pressure will also stay in place, keeping low level northeast winds and below normal temperatures and humidity levels. Lows dropping back into the lower to mid 60s, upper 60s to near 70 closer to the coast.
126 PM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025 High pressure will allow dry conditions and comfortable temperatures to persist through midweek.
705 PM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025 A developing area of low pressure off the Southeast Coast will move further offshore as high pressure to our north extends south into the area through mid week. High pressure will continue to extend cooler and drier nely flow into central NC on Monday. Isolated to scattered showers/storms may be possible as neutral H5 height tendency and presence of a lee-trough in the Piedmont may trigger shallow convection. Precipitation chances may again increase on Sat as a more appreciable cold front is forecast to traverse the Mid-Atlantic, but timing differences result in low probabilities at this point. There is high confidence of VFR conditions through the period as dry high pressure extends over the area.
As a mid-level ridge continues to linger over Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley, and low-level southerly to southeasterly flow continues bring in more low-level moisture into the region. With the previously mentioned mid-level ridge over the area, the chances for rain will remain low (less than 20%) for today.
302 PM MDT Sun Aug 31 2025 - Slightly warmer and drier through Labor Day weekend.
The cold front will bring chances isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms mainly over western and northwestern Arkansas on Monday and an isolated shower or thunderstorm elsewhere within the state.
534 PM MDT Sun Aug 31 2025 - Dry and slightly warmer for Labor Day.
620 PM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025 (This evening through Monday night) The stalled front that has been draped just off of the SE LA coast continues to slowly move south farther into the Gulf today as the upper-level trough axis swings southward through the Mid-Atlantic region. The mid-level moisture gradient looks to stay along the coast tomorrow as we still have a more westerly component to the upper- level flow as the center of the trough over the Northeast US meanders and pivots.
Chances of showers with a possible of a thunderstorm or two will remain through the overnight hours with probabilities remaining in the low to mid 20% for the Basin and Kittitas Valley. The motion of this low is slow, however, and while it remains in the vicinity of the PacNW, moisture will continue to pump inland.
702 PM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025 Upper troughing remains persistent across the eastern CONUS with our forecast area residing on the backside of this trough and northwest flow aloft prevailing.
High pressure will be centered just to the north of the CWA putting most of the area under east to northeast flow aloft.
729 PM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025 High pressure will allow dry conditions and comfortable temperatures to persist through midweek.
Thus the highest rain chances will be across the southern interior and southwest Florida during the afternoon and evening.
723 PM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025 High pressure will extend across the area through mid week while a stationary front lingers just off the coast. A cold front could pass through the region by the end of the week. A deep layer upper trough will remain anchored over the eastern U. At the surface, a wedge of high pressure will also stay in place, keeping low level northeast winds and below normal temperatures and humidity levels. Lows dropping back into the lower to mid 60s, upper 60s to near 70 closer to the coast.
A very early season mid latitude trough is balling up over the eastern United States. Models suggest that despite the trough just to our north, the lower level flow in our area might have been less confluent than last night. The mid latitude trough will continue to congeal over the eastern United States and surface to lower level troughing will remain across Florida. Overnight temperatures will range a bit due to rain effects, but be broadly in the lower 80s. This trough, along with copious moisture has been conducive to scattered to numerous showers across the broader area. The trough to our north will maintain light mostly westerly breezes overnight.
724 PM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025 After a period of cooler days, warmer weather is expected to open the month of September.
511 PM MDT Sun Aug 31 2025 - 2-3F warmer tomorrow and a bit drier region-wide. The main change is it will be 2-3F warmer region-wide and will be a bit drier.
603 PM MDT Sun Aug 31 2025 - Mostly dry weather and gradually warmer temps continue through Labor Day. Upper ridge extending north into East Idaho this afternoon per satellite imagery. Ridge continues to amplify into Labor Day across the region, with dry conditions continuing. Ensembles maintain strong ridge through the Great Basin and East Idaho for the next several days.
722 PM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025 Seasonable afternoon high temperatures through the middle of this week with cooler temperatures for the end of the week. A chilly night is still in store for the southern Adirondacks as mostly clear skies contribute to overnight low temperatures in the low 40s and upper 30s.
Surface winds: S-E 5-15 kt with localized gusts to 25 kt in the Lower Snake Plain tomorrow afternoon.
703 PM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025 High pressure will remain across the region through Monday. Some showers will develop mid week ahead of a cold front. High pressure centered over the Great Lakes will keep dry northeast flow across the region. The trend of temperatures being slightly warmer than the previous day/night will continue. At the surface, an inverted trough will develop into the area with some moisture return focused along it.
Based on consistency in ensemble means and cluster analysis, confidence is high that northern Arizona will remain under the influence of an amplified 500 mb ridge through the week.
1245 AM EDT Mon Sep 1 2025 Seasonable afternoon high temperatures through the middle of this week with cooler temperatures for the end of the week. A chilly night is still in store for the southern Adirondacks as mostly clear skies contribute to overnight low temperatures in the low 40s and upper 30s.
The cold front will bring chances isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms mainly over western and northwestern Arkansas on Monday and an isolated shower or thunderstorm elsewhere within the state. By Monday afternoon/evening into Tuesday, the cold front will bring additional chances for showers and thunderstorms statewide with slightly cooler air filtering in behind the front by Tuesday night.
- Below normal temps will remain in place, with a reinforcing shot of cooler air arriving Wed evening. At the surface, high pressure continues to stretch across the Great Lakes region and into the Upper/Mid Mississippi Valley. By Wed afternoon, confidence remains high in a deep upper low tracking out of Manitoba/western Ontario and moving into the Western Great Lakes/Upper Mississippi Valley. This will allow a cold front to push south across the Plains, moving through the forecast area late Wed afternoon into Wed evening. There is good model agreement that another piece of energy will dive down the backside of the upper trough on Thu and will allow highs in the 70s to remain for Thu into the weekend.
122 AM EDT Mon Sep 1 2025 Dry weather opens up the month of September amid high pressure. Better rain chances arrive around mid-week ahead of a cold front. High pressure sprawling across the Great Lakes and northeast will provide dry, comfortable weather this Labor Day. As a weak inverted trough in the light northeast to southeast surface/low level flow south of the high slides slowly westward, the axis of high dew points comes westward out of the mountains, and with surface/low level ridging taking hold, this should prevent a repeat of afternoon and evening convection there. Low level winds veering out of an onshore flow position will encourage increased moisture to set up a warmer, and slightly unstable atmosphere to support a few afternoon showers and embedded thunderstorms to drift into eastern Kentucky and southwestern West Virginia before sunset.
The boundary will ride the NW flow currently in place as the highly amplified pattern of late continues.
209 AM EDT Mon Sep 1 2025 High pressure remains over the area tonight through Tuesday.
The synoptic pattern over the united states can be depicted as an upper level low over the eastern United States and a ridge over the western United States. A few showers or storms will be possible across central Kansas tonight then be pushed southward as a dry cold front moves through the area Monday night.
High temperatures are expected to reach into the low to mid 80s. Tonight, northwest flow remains in place over the inverted trough at the surface. Low temperatures are expected to drop into the low 50s to low 60s.
Severe weather is not expected, but heavy downpours could result in localized flooding, especially in areas near the Highway 81 corridor.
(Rest of tonight and Monday) An upper low will slowly make its way off the eastern Atlantic coast as troughing/northwest flow enforces seasonably cool temperatures across much of the eastern CONUS. Not expecting much if any weather impacts overnight as temps fall to the low to mid 60s with light easterly winds and mostly clear skies.
(Today through Tuesday) A prolonged period of unsettled weather continues across South Florida as deep upper-level troughing remains established over the Eastern Seaboard. Another element of added uncertainty will be the potential presence of a weak area of low pressure attached to that boundary, which could settle nearby or over the region today or tomorrow and help enhance convective activity. Highs both days will remain in the low to mid 90s, with overnight lows in the low to mid 70s inland, and mid to upper 70s near the coasts.
Similar setup likely through mid week to perhaps late week, so long as the boundary remains to the south, which seems reasonable as longwave troughing that has been over the E U.
Instability for the convection to work with is limited (MUCAPE between 250-750 J/kg), but differential heating over the terrain and convergence along outflow boundaries should continue to provide the low level support needed for convection through this evening. However, it shouldn't be widespread due to vertically challenged CAPE profiles that are largely below the freezing level.
Mid-level ridging and moisture advection with south- southeasterly winds will continue to bring hot temperatures rising into the upper 90s to 100s and heat indices between 105 to 110 degrees across Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley on Monday. With that said, a cold front begins to push southward into the CWA on Monday. Rainfall and cloud cover associated with the cold front could limit afternoon high temperatures, heat indices, and heat risk. The aforementioned cold front will move through the CWA Monday night, but lift back north across Deep South Texas on Tuesday.
- A cold front will move through on Tuesday, with a 25 to 45 percent chance of rain.
A tranquil weather pattern will continue to start the week as high pressure remains firmly established across the region through Tuesday evening. Weak gradient flow will allow daily lake breezes to march steadily inland each afternoon, holding temperatures in the low/mid 70s lakeside. Beyond Tuesday, attention continues to focus on the significant weather pattern shift expected across North America in response to the anomalously strong mid/upper-level ridging building across northwestern Canada. The associated buckling of the Polar jet over this region will send impulses originating from the Beaufort Sea south-southeastward across south central Canada, and ultimately carving out a large upper trough/low over the Upper Great Lakes region later in the week. There does continue to be some ensemble spread in regards to the overall strength and southward extend of the Upper Low into the Upper Great Lakes late in the week.
A tranquil weather pattern continues through Tuesday as high pressure remains firmly in place across the region.
245 AM EDT Mon Sep 1 2025 High pressure will allow dry conditions and comfortable temperatures to persist through midweek.