Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Temperatures are a question mark tonight since clearing just to the northeast in ND on satellite may be overridden by more stratus in an upper trough set to move in early Monday morning.
- Trending drier and warmer with temperatures above normal by midweek.
Much of the overnight should be on the quiet side, with the clouds, widespread dew points in the low to mid 60s and southerly winds keeping temperatures from dropping much. A few thunderstorms may develop toward daybreak across parts of north central Oklahoma in response to the low level jet and associated warm advection that may move into parts of northeast Oklahoma along and west of Highway 75 by 12Z. More widespread thunderstorms remain likely to develop late afternoon in advance of the approaching cold front/dryline that will shift eastward through mid to late evening.
While most of this lower level cloud cover has mixed out, mid and high level cloud cover will persist ahead of incoming trough and give us cloudy conditions through tonight.
1226 PM CDT Sun Mar 31 2024 (The rest of today) Persistent low and mid level cloud cover continues to stream over the area today downstream of longwave troughing over the Southwestern CONUS.
108 PM EDT Sun Mar 31 2024 High pressure off the SE US along with upper ridging continues to keep the region dry with above normal temperatures into the early part of the week ahead.
242 PM MDT Sun Mar 31 2024 Low pressure across the Northern Great Basin will maintain north/northeast wind gusts to near 40 mph through sunset this evening.
(Through Monday) Upper-level ridging remains firmly in place with high pressure centered northeast of the Bahamas. Lows tonight will range from the mid 50s near the Suwannee Valley and I-75 corridor to the lower 60s over the Central Time Zone counties. Highs will be in the lower half of the 80s.
A ridge of high pressure will bring a continuation of mild temperatures and mainly dry weather to the Mid-South through Monday.
This is producing southerly return flow over the Lower Mississippi Valley with surface dewpoints in the upper 50s to lower 60s and temperatures in the 60s.
25 inches or less with the higher end amounts along and north of I-80.
Temperatures tonight to fall into the low to mid 60s. A nearly saturated surface airmass expected near daybreak as dewpoint values will also average in the low to mid 60s.
106 PM CDT Sun Mar 31 2024 (Today and tonight) Cirrus continues to stream overhead atop a ridge early this morning. Surface obs show a warm front lifting northward with low 60 dewpoints behind it.
A 592dam H5 ridge will continues to spread eastward across the western Caribbean placing our region in a more active southwesterly flow on the northwestern periphery of the ridge. With the heights increasing and at he lower levels, the high pressure to the east helping with return flow and increasing boundary layer moisture, the warming trend will persist well into Monday.
224 PM CDT Sun Mar 31 2024 Southerly flow will continue to dominate the lower levels this afternoon through tonight, creating increasing moisture across the region. Overnight lows will remain in the lower to middle 60s. By Monday, surface ridging is expected to maximize across the region as a low pressure system over the OK/TX Panhandles begins to push eastwards. Afternoon highs will climb into the lower to middle 80s.
Current upper air models and Water Vapor place the upper trough over the Rockies, with a Low sitting over the southern CA coast. Surface maps show low over south central WY, with warm front running east into South Dakota. Main forecast challenge with this system continues to be QPF/SLR given the warmer surface temps and thermal profile. Temperatures remain below average for Monday, however upper ridging builds over the western CONUS through the work week, and we will see a warming trend with dry conditions.
The mean east to southeasterly steering flow is slowly allowing dew points to inch upward, now in the lower 60s at the island communities.
(The rest of today) Persistent low and mid level cloud cover continues to stream over the area today downstream of longwave troughing over the Southwestern CONUS.
Southwesterly flow aloft will continue to increase tonight ahead of a strong upper trough digging into the Southwest CONUS and Northwest Mexico. Temperatures tonight to fall into the low to mid 60s. A nearly saturated surface airmass expected near daybreak as dewpoint values will also average in the low to mid 60s.
731 PM CDT Sun Mar 31 2024 Southerly flow will continue to dominate the lower levels this afternoon through tonight, creating increasing moisture across the region. Overnight lows will remain in the lower to middle 60s. By Monday, surface ridging is expected to maximize across the region as a low pressure system over the OK/TX Panhandles begins to push eastwards. Afternoon highs will climb into the lower to middle 80s.
Precipitation, cloud cover, and winds letting up this evening as a low pressure system moves eastward out of our area. As the low exits, high pressure is building in which is supporting the calmer and drier weather.
(Now through Monday) Upper level ridging will persist through Monday. This results in above normal low temps tonight and a very mild day on Monday with highs topping out in the low to mid 80s with upper 70s at the immediate coast.
Another quiet evening is underway as high clouds continue streaming across the Florida peninsula, riding along the northern edge of a sprawling ridge axis over the Gulf. Early 0Z sounding data shows dry mid-layers, but additional moisture in the lowest km and above 500mb. The setup over the region this afternoon features high pressure over the Atlantic and ridging building aloft.
Winter system continues to exit to the southeast tonight as an upper ridge and high pressure build into the region.
700 PM EDT Sun Mar 31 2024 (Through Monday) Upper-level ridging remains firmly in place with high pressure centered northeast of the Bahamas. Lows tonight will range from the mid 50s near the Suwannee Valley and I-75 corridor to the lower 60s over the Central Time Zone counties. Highs will be in the lower half of the 80s.
Ridging along the Gulf coast from the east will continue to maintain low level moisture while southwest flow aloft will continue the stream of cloud cover across the region. /22/ Southerly flow will continue to dominate the lower levels this afternoon through tonight, creating increasing moisture across the region. Overnight lows will remain in the lower to middle 60s. By Monday, surface ridging is expected to maximize across the region as a low pressure system over the OK/TX Panhandles begins to push eastwards. Afternoon highs will climb into the lower to middle 80s.
A potent cold front will deliver a band of rain and snow through eastern Arizona this afternoon and evening. Low pressure moving into Arizona later tonight through Monday will then bring another increase in rain and snow showers to much of central and northern Arizona. Warmer and drier conditions are forecast by the middle of the week, with more unsettled weather by the end of the week. A broad area of low pressure covers the western United States this afternoon. Increasing lift and instability to the northeast of the low are forecast to affect Yavapai County, northern Gila County, and possibly far southern Coconino County. Several inches of snow are forecast in the higher elevation areas around Prescott (Walker, Ponderosa Park, Mingus Mtn). Right now the highest chances for that are from roughly I-40 southward.
Low and mid level cloud coverage will increase ahead of a low pressure system and associated cold front. As the low travels northeast, a few strong, possibly severe, storms are possible for far northeast Arkansas late tomorrow night if the CAP is broken.
Snow is becoming more of the dominant weather type as temperatures fall into the low to mid 30s. Temperatures are a question mark tonight since clearing just to the northeast in ND on satellite may be overridden by more stratus in an upper trough set to move in early Monday morning.
This front will also keep temperatures a bit cooler than today with high temperatures ranging from the lower 70s west to the lower 80s east. With the dry sub-cloud layer the initial bout of precipitation should be accompanied with gusty and erratic winds before the lower levels saturate eliminating the evaporatively enhanced downdraft potential.
Ridging dominates through the troposphere with additional strengthening moving in at the higher levels. Short Term Update - Surface winds will remain gentle out of the east to southeast due to the ridge across Florida. Expect lows to settle in the lower to mid 70s, only a couple of degrees from current readings. A ridge across Florida will maintain gentle to moderate east to southeasterly breezes on Keys waters through the overnight period.
616 PM CDT Sun Mar 31 2024 A ridge of high pressure will bring a continuation of mild temperatures and mainly dry weather to the Mid-South through Monday.
1230 AM CDT Mon Apr 1 2024 Ridging along the Gulf coast from the east will continue to maintain low level moisture while southwest flow aloft will continue the stream of cloud cover across the region. /22/ Southerly flow will continue to dominate the lower levels this afternoon through tonight, creating increasing moisture across the region. Overnight lows will remain in the lower to middle 60s. By Monday, surface ridging is expected to maximize across the region as a low pressure system over the OK/TX Panhandles begins to push eastwards. Afternoon highs will climb into the lower to middle 80s.
Current surface map places low across Kansas with high pressure across Manitoba/Ontario. Elongated upper trough is located across the Rockies into the southwestern CONUS with a few embedded circulations across Wyoming/Utah. Upper ridge builds across the area mid-week with temperatures climbing back into the 60s/lower 70s.
314 AM CDT Mon Apr 1 2024 - Severe weather threat today with warm, muggy airmass expanding north towards the highway 36 corridor in central Missouri.
144 AM PDT Mon Apr 1 2024 A couple of quiet days are in store to start the workweek as high pressure brings warmer and drier conditions.
SOme freezing fog could develop in a few valleys which may cause a few slick spots.
Patchy fog may also accompany the low clouds across south MS early this morning. With increased mixing, including periodically gusty southerly wind, the lower clouds should diminish by this afternoon, enough for temps to rise to well above normal in spite of continuing higher clouds.
1034 PM MDT Sun Mar 31 2024 With the main low pressure system bringing snow to Wyoming and southern Montana, we in northeast Montana remain far enough removed from that influence, that the low stratus cloud deck is beginning to break up today. This pattern change will signal the beginning of a strong warm up under the influence of a building ridge of high pressure from the west.
The arrival of a cold front Tuesday night will bring increasing chances for rain and high elevation snow to the Cascades and north Idaho.
644 AM CDT Mon Apr 1 2024 (Today through Tuesday Night) An upper level trough is expected to sweep eastward across the Four Corners towards Texas today. A cold front associated with the aforementioned upper level system will approach SE Texas Monday night. This could bring patchy fog across portions of SE Texas Monday night/early Tuesday morning ahead of the cold front.
Dry conditions persist across the Florida Keys this afternoon as satellite analyses place an upper level ridge centered over the Yucatan Peninsula. A lack of cloud cover allowed temperatures to increase to the upper 70s in the morning, so daily highs in the lower 80s are expected. Overall, another persistence forecast update for the Florida Keys is valid until the mid-level ridge moves eastward ahead of a late season cold front. Moderate east to southeast breezes will prevail this afternoon and tonight, as high pressure continues pushing offshore into the western Atlantic.
Warmer and drier weather for the middle of the week. A broad and slow moving trough over Arizona will migrate across the state today. A weakening, but cold upper low in the southern potion of the trough will provide dynamically driven precipitation over the southern CWA through this morning.
IR currently depicts the positively titled longwave trough across the state and into northern Utah. Accumulations for the lower basins and valleys look to be minimal through Monday morning before tapering off and moving east of the CWA. Snow totals have been less than anticipated with movement of the aforementioned L/W trough eastward a bit quicker keeping the main PVA anomalies to the east and jet support a bit further south and east than originally anticipated. Going forward, upper level ridging builds in from the southwest that will have dry conditions and a warming trend through much of the work week.
- Dry, warmer weather returns for the rest of the week. Skies will remain cloudy today with cool temperatures in the lower 40s in northeast NE, to the lower 60s in extreme southeast NE near Falls City. Blustery northwest winds 15 to 30 mph Tuesday will give the air temperatures a bit of a bite feeling more like the lower 40s.
Another beautiful day expected as high pressure remains in control. The mid-level ridging begins to shift off the coast, with winds veering each day bringing in more warm air each day. The body of high pressure at the surface remains in the Western Atlantic and keeps the dry conditions around for another few days.
631 AM CDT Mon Apr 1 2024 - Severe weather threat today with warm, muggy airmass expanding north towards the highway 36 corridor in central Missouri.
Dry weather with warmer interior temperatures are forecast today and Tuesday.
- Cooler conditions arrive Tuesday with a warming trend into the end of the week. The warm front has remained stationary overnight and currently extends through central KS with roughly the southern third of the CWA located south of the boundary as of 08Z. North of the boundary, particularly toward the KS/NE border, there may be some patchy fog this morning with warm/moist air advecting over the top of the cooler BL. However, the main storm chances come mid to late afternoon as upper-level support improves with the approaching trough and mid-level jet, which should help develop storms along the sfc cold front. Rain lingers across much of the area Tuesday morning before the upper trough axis pushes east by the afternoon.
552 AM EDT Mon Apr 1 2024 High pressure off the SE US along with upper ridging will keep the region dry with above normal temperatures early part this week.
But besides the increase in high clouds, no rain is expected today or Tuesday as high pressure remains in place across the area. Temperatures should warm into the lower to mid 80s this afternoon, then mid to upper 80s Tuesday with some pockets of 90 inland. High pressure ridging across the waters will keep a S/SE flow in place through Tuesday, then as the next system approaches, winds will increase to around 15kts and shift to the S/SW Tuesday night.
Water vapor imagery shows an upper level low spinning over Baja California, with a large plume of subtropical moisture spreading northeastward across northern Mexico and Texas. A capping inversion noted in forecast soundings will likely prevent convection from developing along the dry line through most of the afternoon- expect perhaps across the Big Country where some of the high res guidance shows a few storms developing. A secondary front will begin to drop into the area late tonight bringing with it a much cooler airmass.
Low level moisture advection will also continue throughout the day likely maintaining at least mid 60s ahead of an approaching cold front and eventually surging dryline. Later in the early evening as the low level jet intensifies a bit, low level shear will increase along and east of the I-35 corridor.
333 AM MDT Mon Apr 1 2024 Satellite imagery and analysis indicated the upper forcing with the storm system is shifting east/southeast at this time while drier air is infiltrating from the northwest as trof axis passes over. High pressure will then be moving into the area today with decreasing clouds and surface winds gradually turning westerly.
The mid-level ridging begins to shift off the coast, with winds veering each day bringing in more warm air each day. The body of high pressure at the surface remains in the Western Atlantic and keeps the dry conditions around for another few days.
646 AM CDT Mon Apr 1 2024 (Today through Tuesday) With high pressure still to our southeast, a southwesterly flow has developed across the area. As we move into the afternoon, the high only edges east a bit, keeping the next storm system well to our west.
Our final snow showers are slowly winding down early this AM across the SE (generally along and east of I-15 and south of Blackfoot Reservoir) as low pressure finally pulls away. Fog should burn off by 9-10am, leaving SE Idaho under the control of high pressure ridging pushing in from the west supporting mostly sunny/clear skies, dry conditions, and warming temps both today and Tue.
An upper level ridge will continue to bring warm and dry conditions over the area into Tuesday.
High pressure will bring warming temperature and quiet weather for today into Tuesday. (Today and tonight) The axis of a high pressure ridge aloft will extend from the northeast Pacific through the Pacific Northwest states.
640 AM EDT Mon Apr 1 2024 - Monitoring the potential for a significant spring snowstorm, particularly impacting the higher terrain of northern lower Michigan. Tightening north/south thermal gradient driving increasing low level frontogenetical response across the lower lakes and Ohio Valley. Details: Basically status-quo heading through tonight as most active weather remains off to our south as baroclinic axis moves little and dry low level air feed continues in from that Canadian high pressure.
356 PM EDT Mon Apr 1 2024 High pressure will persist through Tuesday.
A high-pressure system is developing over the region today and tomorrow, bringing warmer and drier conditions.
-Elevated fire weather concerns for tomorrow afternoon The first day of April is here and it is off to a hot and windy start, with the highest wind gust recorded at Brownsville Airport at 63 mph. Meanwhile, some places are starting to creep into the low 90s out in Zapata. As the northerly winds continue through the day, the cooler air will also make its way into the region, which will allow for the high temperatures tomorrow be mostly in the range of mid 80s to upper 80s. A few places could get into the lower 90s. Although the Lower Rio Grande Vally is expected to be in the lower 60s.
1240 PM EDT Mon Apr 1 2024 High pressure off the SE US along with upper ridging will keep the region dry with above normal temperatures through Tuesday.
1243 PM EDT Mon Apr 1 2024 (Rest of today through Tuesday) High pressure in the western Atlantic continues to keep South FL dry for the next couple days. High temperatures this afternoon will be in the lower 80s across the east coast metro, with middle 80s over the interior and SW FL. Overnight lows tonight will range from the lower 60s around the lake to around 70 close to the coasts. As the high shifts further to the southeast on Tuesday, the flow will become more S/SW which will really ramp up temps and humidity and make it feel unseasonably warm and muggy.
337 PM CDT Mon Apr 1 2024 - Dry and warmer with temperatures trending above normal through midweek.
JKL Satellite imagery and analysis indicated the upper forcing with the storm system is shifting east/southeast at this time while drier air is infiltrating from the northwest as trof axis passes over. High pressure will then be moving into the area today with decreasing clouds and surface winds gradually turning westerly.
With temps progged in the lower 80s, steep mid level lapse rates and some surface instability present, some isold shra are possible. Overnight should be mostly dry but precip chances will begin to increase later in the day on Tuesday ahead of an advancing cold front.
324 PM EDT Mon Apr 1 2024 High pressure continues through Tuesday, with temperatures increasing into the mid to upper 80s by Tuesday.
- Showers diminish late this evening, then high pressure returns tonight through midweek resulting in drier and warmer weather area-wide. GOES-East water vapor imagery currently shows a broad longwave trough over the Intermountain West this afternoon. Underneath the trough is a pocket of cold air aloft, as evidenced by 500mb temperatures in the neighborhood of -25C almost directly overhead. Given the above, it's no surprise then that visible satellite and radar imagery show numerous showers across the area, especially over the higher terrain. In the lower elevations, most showers are only producing light rain, but stronger cells can produce quick bursts of steadier and heavier rain and even some small hail or graupel. Dry weather returns by Tuesday morning with high pressure building in from the west.
And even then, models suggest trailing high pressure will be over most of the forecast area by the late afternoon. Through the remainder of the workweek, a ridge that is presently entering the western CONUS will gradually slide eastward as an omega block develops. By the end of the workweek, the ridge will be centered over the Plains States with flanking upper lows over the northeastern and western US. This will lead to a significant warming trend through the week with highs in the low to mid 60s for most locations by the end of the workweek.
245 PM CDT Mon Apr 1 2024 As the subtropical ridge over the Caribbean Sea builds east, expect the longwave trough over the Baja California/Desert Southwest region to eject to the east-northeast. The southern fringes of the trough axis will hang back to the southwest while two stronger pieces of perturbed flow/vorticity will enhance cyclogenesis over the Plains to Mid West through Tuesday afternoon. A strong cold front remains progged to move into the region by late aftn hours, with some potential prefrontal development by early-mid aftn in the Delta, late aftn- early evening across the I-55 corridor & early evening across the I-59 to Hwy 45 corridor. Highs will warm some 5-10 degrees F above normal in the low 80s northwest of the Natchez Trace to mid 80s along & to the southeast.
Latest water vapor satellite imagery and RAP upper air analysis reveals a large, positively tilted trough over the western CONUS, with an embedded vorticity max rounding its base over southern NM. 75" of QPF by 12Z Tuesday along and south of a Johnson City-Larned line, with the highest amounts along the KS/OK border. Daytime Tuesday, overcast skies will gradually erode from west to east as the upper level trough axis passes overhead, with all zones under mostly clear skies by mid-afternoon. The strong early April sun will aid in afternoon highs reaching the upper 50s/low 60s, but northerly winds in the 20-25 mph range gusting to 35 mph will make it feel cooler.
-Dry and cooler weather return for the mid week An active weather day is in store for the forecast area. Currently a warm front is draped across the northern CWA and continuing to shift to the north to near the Iowa border. As we progress through the afternoon, current thinking is that heating along with enhanced lift for an increasing mid level jet will aid in storm development in the vicinity of the warm front. These locations have the highest risk of tornadoes this afternoon with the best low level shear compared to farther north and closer to the warm front. As far as the rest of the forecast, cooler conditions move in for the mid week with highs in the 50s and lows in the 30s. Some locations may see the return of near freezing temperatures.
Temperatures areawide will run as much as 15-25 degrees below normal, in the low to mid-50s.
High pressure will remain firmly in place over western Montana and north central Idaho through Tuesday, continuing a short period of dry and relatively warm weather.