Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Scattered showers and storms will linger into the afternoon hours, with the highest PoPs shifting to the southern half of the area. Otherwise, temperatures will be much cooler on Wednesday (70s and 80s) given the extensive cloud cover in place and shower and storms. (Wednesday night through next Tuesday) The cold front that brought rain chances during the day on Wednesday will have moved into south central Texas by Wednesday evening.
The most significant severe weather will be well to our northeast across eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas near triple point low pressure system. Otherwise, look for hot temperatures today then much cooler weather for Wednesday. Highs on Wednesday will be in the upper 70s to mid 80s(cold front south of our area) thanks to rainfall and low clouds hanging around for much of the day. (Wednesday night through next Tuesday) The cold front that brought rain chances during the day on Wednesday will have moved into south central Texas by Wednesday evening.
140 PM PDT Tue Sep 23 2025 Warmer today with temperatures reaching the mid nineties in portions of the inland valleys. Low pressure moving into central and then southern California will bring cooling for Wednesday through the end of the week.
Updated at 1251 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025 - Severe storms will be possible this afternoon and evening with the highest risk across southeast Oklahoma.
303 PM EDT Tue Sep 23 2025 Offshore high pressure will shift farther out into the Atlantic through tonight while a cold front approaches from the north.
The upper trough that had a hand in yesterday's severe weather chances has finally drifted east of our area, putting the region in weak northerly flow aloft. A weak upper low across the Central Rockies is starting to get shunted east as a ridge begins to build across the Pacific Northwest. This is creating a long trough axis that extends through the Upper Mississippi Valley and into the southern Ontario with the upper jet well to our north. Weak flow will prevail across the area this weekend with a weak ridge progressively building in.
137 PM EDT Tue Sep 23 2025 A slow moving trough of low pressure will bring beneficial rain to the region through mid-week, with several rounds of showers and scattered thunderstorms. Another low pressure system will move into the Great Lakes late in the week, with additional rain chances in an unsettled pattern. An upper level low will spin over the Upper Great Lakes through tonight. Weak ridging will move into the forecast area tonight. Higher confidence of fog development is across the higher terrain and southeast of Lake Ontario. A closed low over the upper Great Lakes will ever so slowly churn east and southeast towards the region.
Wind speeds will remain light beneath the upper-level ridge with a general easterly component, though localization variations will be driven by diurnal/terrain influences. Quiet weather pattern continues as a high pressure ridge remains centered over the PacNW. Only thing to really note from this pattern is the development of a thermal trough along the foothills of the Cascades, which will coincide with low RHs in the lower teens across central Oregon. But in the absence of breezy winds under this ridge pattern, and with wildfire activity in the area minimal, not expecting critical conditions to materialize either today or tomorrow. Temps under this ridge will peak on Wednesday, with highs well into the 80s, possibly 90 in central Oregon and the Gorge (confidence 20-30%) due to the aforementioned thermal trough.
A ridge of high pressure continues to build into the region today under mostly clear skies. Winds will increase from the E-SE this afternoon and bring warmer conditions and also help to clear out the smoke.
An elongated H5 ridge continues to influence the pattern through the forecast period, with a couple of weak trough passages bringing drier air into the area. The first of these troughs brings a northerly to northwesterly wind shift this evening into Wednesday morning.
This is due to high pressure over the area. This upper ridge is sandwiched in between two low pressure systems, one over the front range of the Rockies in Colorado and the other off the coast of California. This will result in some of the cooler locales seeing frost. The good news is this will not last as the ridge will continue its slow, eastward trek tomorrow. It will be another quiet night, though clouds will be on the increase from the previously aforementioned low pressure system in the eastern Pacific.
- Much-needed rain returns to the forecast ahead of a midweek cold front. - In the wake of the cold front, a return to near normal temperatures can be expected.
233 PM MDT Tue Sep 23 2025 - Dry conditions and above average temperatures through the rest of the week Upper air analysis shows the departing compact upper low swinging across the central Plains south of the CWA while strong ridging continues to build across the northern Plains. high pressure just west of the CWA will push across the area tonight, which will allow winds to quickly subside around sunset.
However, a Coast Flood Statement in effect for the Upper Keys means that mariners should be prepared for less clearance underneath fixed bridges. From synopsis, rain and thunder chances will remain elevated through the rest of today as a moisture surge and low-level trough continue to push through the Florida Keys marine zones.
114 PM MDT Tue Sep 23 2025 - A cold front and Pacific storm system will bring much cooler temperatures and unsettled weather Tuesday. - A Freeze Warning is in effect for the high valleys west of the Laramie Range Wednesday morning. Freezing temperatures and frost possible.
213 PM EDT Tue Sep 23 2025 High pressure north of the region will weaken throughout the day.
As such, afternoon high temperatures may be impacted slightly, but are still expected to reach the low to mid 70s. 500 mb pattern shows an upper low over the central Rockies and instability and moisture tied to the central Plains into Ohio valley. This jet will remain in that area the next few days as a flat 500 mb ridge builds east thru southern Canada from southern Alberta into Ontario. Even within the west-east ridge aloft there are a few weak suface systems that will move through, providing some wind shifts.
204 PM EDT Tue Sep 23 2025 Warm and mainly dry weather will continue through mid week with high pressure the dominant weather feature. Unsettled weather is likely late this week as a cold front impacts the area. Well above normal temps through the short term period as our area will be in WAA regime ahead of an approaching cold front.
The main concern will be slick and icy roads above 9,000 feet tonight as temperatures fall below freezing. - Turning warmer and drier again for the rest of the week ahead.
800 PM EDT Tue Sep 23 2025 Offshore high pressure will shift farther out into the Atlantic through tonight while a cold front approaches from the north.
637 PM EDT Tue Sep 23 2025 High pressure north of the region will weaken throughout the day.
625 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025 Updated at 621 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025 - Severe storms will be possible this afternoon and evening with the highest risk across southeast Oklahoma.
621 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025 The upper-level weather pattern for much of this week will see the subtropical ridge suppressed to the south with broad and positively tilted trough over much of the central and eastern CONUS.
High pressure builds into the area resulting in dry conditions and warming temperatures through Wednesday along with some easterly canyon winds.
Fog still looks possible in the lower valleys, especially near rivers, after midnight.
527 PM MDT Tue Sep 23 2025 - A cold front and Pacific storm system will bring much cooler temperatures and unsettled weather Tuesday. - A Freeze Warning is in effect for the high valleys west of the Laramie Range Wednesday morning. Freezing temperatures and frost possible.
A persistent upper low just off the southern California coast continues to entrain moisture from the south which is resulting in increasing shower and thunderstorm activity over the coast waters. However, the upper low has pulled a little to the west and this has so far kept the mainland convection-free.
753 PM EDT Tue Sep 23 2025 Warm and mainly dry weather will continue through mid week with high pressure the dominant weather feature. Unsettled weather is likely late this week as a cold front impacts the area. Well above normal temps through the short term period as our area will be in WAA regime ahead of an approaching cold front.
411 PM MDT Tue Sep 23 2025 - Warmer and drier conditions move in for the next couple of days before moisture increases from south to north throughout the weekend. A low pressure system currently centered over northeast Colorado has been slow to move out today. Instead of tracking east with the center of the low, a ridge building in over Idaho and western Wyoming resulted in an easterly propagation of the back half of the low over northwest Colorado. Tonight the trough overhead will finally push east giving way to high pressure building across the Intermountain West. High pressure will bring warmer and drier conditions to the region tomorrow with mostly sunny skies.
Moving into Wednesday evening, a cold-front and upper level trough will begin to push through the area.
An upper level low will move through the area tonight and enhance lift across the area. Highs tomorrow look to reach into the low 70s with lows tomorrow night ranging from the upper 40s across far western Kansas to mid 50s across central Kansas.
An upper-level ridge of high pressure will maintain clear skies and above-normal temperatures through at least Wednesday.
801 PM EDT Tue Sep 23 2025 Warm and mainly dry weather will continue through mid week with high pressure the dominant weather feature. Unsettled weather is likely late this week as a cold front impacts the area. Well above normal temps through the short term period as our area will be in WAA regime ahead of an approaching cold front.
Rain chances will then be on the increase as a cold front approaches by the end of the week. Cooler temperatures return then behind the cold front. Some debris clouds from convection over Arkansas and into Tennessee are approaching the upstate, but outside of this, 500 mb heights continue to slowly rise in response to a positively tilted trough digging in over the Rocky Mountains. A deep positively tilted trough will be positioned from the Great Lakes southwest into Kansas at the start of the period. This should result in a summer- like day across the Midlands and CSRA as daytime temperatures reach into the lower 90s, about 10 degrees above seasonal values.
552 PM MDT Tue Sep 23 2025 - Lingering showers will bring rain to portions of the area, and snow to the high mountain peaks, through early Wednesday morning. Otherwise, temperatures already peaked this afternoon, kept a bit on the low side due to some lingering clouds earlier in the day. Cool air remains in place Wednesday behind the departing trough. As an upper ridge begins to build in over the region, we will see below- normal temperatures and clearing skies, after some lingering showers over the plains dissipate in the morning.
518 PM MDT Tue Sep 23 2025 - Dry conditions and above average temperatures through the rest of the week Upper air analysis shows the departing compact upper low swinging across the central Plains south of the CWA while strong ridging continues to build across the northern Plains. high pressure just west of the CWA will push across the area tonight, which will allow winds to quickly subside around sunset.
606 PM MDT Tue Sep 23 2025 - Warmer and drier conditions move in for the next couple of days before moisture increases from south to north throughout the weekend. A low pressure system currently centered over northeast Colorado has been slow to move out today. Instead of tracking east with the center of the low, a ridge building in over Idaho and western Wyoming resulted in an easterly propagation of the back half of the low over northwest Colorado. Tonight the trough overhead will finally push east giving way to high pressure building across the Intermountain West. High pressure will bring warmer and drier conditions to the region tomorrow with mostly sunny skies.
755 PM EDT Tue Sep 23 2025 Warm and mainly dry weather will continue through mid week with high pressure the dominant weather feature. Unsettled weather is likely late this week as a cold front impacts the area. Well above normal temps through the short term period as our area will be in WAA regime ahead of an approaching cold front.
An Atlantic ridge stretching across Florida and an outflow boundary is resulting in gentle to moderate northeast to easterly breezes across the Keys this evening. Atlantic ridging will remain in control of Keys weather through the overnight period. With that said, a weak inverted lower level trough is expected to ride westward towards the Keys area late in the overnight. This ridge, with the help of what appears to be a robust convection free outflow boundary has resulted in picking up to moderate across much of Keys waters over the past few hours.
1050 PM EDT Tue Sep 23 2025 Offshore high pressure will shift farther out into the Atlantic through tonight while a cold front approaches from the north.
GOES water vapor imagery and RAP 500 mb analysis indicated broad mid- level troughing over the Great Lakes with embedded troughs extending from the central Rockies into the Ohio Valley. Over the next 24-48 hours, the higher rain chances will be focused south across the Mid- Mississippi to Ohio Valleys along a surface wave, but an isolated shower/sprinkle cannot be ruled out (<20% chance) as troughing persists over the area. Areas of clouds may remain stubborn through the day on Wednesday under the influence of the trough/cooler air aloft.
545 PM MDT Tue Sep 23 2025 - Warmer and drier conditions move in for the next couple of days before moisture increases from south to north throughout the weekend. A low pressure system currently centered over northeast Colorado has been slow to move out today. Instead of tracking east with the center of the low, a ridge building in over Idaho and western Wyoming resulted in an easterly propagation of the back half of the low over northwest Colorado. Tonight the trough overhead will finally push east giving way to high pressure building across the Intermountain West. High pressure will bring warmer and drier conditions to the region tomorrow with mostly sunny skies.
Cloud tops have begun to cool once again with the ongoing activity near the Kansas and Missouri border that has been moving to the south and east on the nose of the low level jet and will largely pose a continued heavy rain threat before moving out within the next couple of hours. Development is ongoing in the vicinity of the cold front, as far southwest as the OKC metro, with this boundary increasingly becoming the focus for thunderstorms during the remainder of the afternoon and evening. (Tomorrow through Tuesday) The front should have cleared the area by daybreak Wednesday, although additional showers and thunderstorms are expected until the main trough axis pushes through the region.
1107 PM MDT Tue Sep 23 2025 - Dry conditions and above average temperatures through the rest of the week Upper air analysis shows the departing compact upper low swinging across the central Plains south of the CWA while strong ridging continues to build across the northern Plains. high pressure just west of the CWA will push across the area tonight, which will allow winds to quickly subside around sunset.
- A ridge settles in heading into the weekend with dry conditions expected. The forecast period begins with a ridge over the western CONUS, a closed low over southern California, and an upper trough over central Kansas. This morning, the trough will push to the east.
This morning, the upper level trough which was the impetus for yesterday's showery day is extending from the western Great Lakes into the central Plains. As we progress through the day, the upper level trough will slowly move through the local area providing lift for light showers and drizzle and isolated thunderstorm cannot be ruled out this afternoon south of I-70. Cloud cover will keep highs in the low to mid 70s. Aloft, a closed upper low will dig from the west coast into the southwestern CONUS. This will allow downstream upper level ridging to build over the eastern Rockies and western Plains.
Ridge axis aloft extends across the FL Panhandle and N Peninsula to the north of a weakness over the central and southern Peninsula, while surface ridging extends across the peninsula from the W Atlantic into the Gulf. Troughing aloft digs over the E/SE U.
Per satellite imagery, the thickest fog is where you would expect within the vicinity of the Great Lakes as well as southeastern Minnesota, with the lowest visibilities being observed around 1/2 to 1 mile in central to east-central Minnesota as well as portions of southeastern MN. Another pleasant day is expected once the fog burns off with temperatures reaching the low to mid 70s under mostly sunny skies with light winds generally within 5 mph variable in direction as high pressure is directly overhead.
1153 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025 (Rest of tonight and Wednesday) Southwesterly flow will continue to result in increasing moisture across the Tennessee Valley overnight as a weak upper wave moves across the lower OH River Valley. The risk for a few strong to severe storms will increase as we head into tomorrow afternoon and evening as an upper low and associated trough becomes better amplified as it shifts east across the Great Lakes and Midwest regions and a second wave generates a multi- cellular or linear complex of storms across eastern TX.
Muscha Cooler highs expected tomorrow. Warmer days forecast for the rest of the week.
159 AM MDT Wed Sep 24 2025 - A Freeze Warning is in effect for the high valleys west of the Laramie Range Wednesday morning. Freezing temperatures and frost possible.
916 PM PDT Tue Sep 23 2025 Warmer today with temperatures reaching the mid nineties in portions of the inland valleys. Low pressure moving into central and then southern California will bring cooling for Wednesday through the end of the week.
244 AM EDT Wed Sep 24 2025 A nearly stationary front will push back northward tonight as a warm front bringing another round of rain.
- Cooler temperatures and dry weather late this week and this weekend. (Today and tonight) The combination of mid to upper level lift, a cold front and a favorable upper level jet will result in medium to high chances of showers and thunderstorms today through this evening. Much cooler today with highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s.
Water vapour loop had upper ridge poking into the northern plains.
- Scattered thunderstorms possible Wednesday afternoon with passage of upper level trough. (Today) Potential for severe weather has largely ended this evening, though clusters of elevated convection will continue through tonight from northwest AR into southeast OK ahead of Pacific cold front. Additional scattered showers and thunderstorms are anticipated Wed afternoon into the evening generally north of I-40, as pocket of colder temps aloft associated with the upper trough moves across the area. (Wednesday Night through Tuesday) Once we move past Wednesday, the upper trough will move off to the east and ridging aloft sets up for the remainder of the week and likely through the weekend.
1125 PM MDT Tue Sep 23 2025 - Lingering showers will bring rain to portions of the area, and snow to the high mountain peaks, through early Wednesday morning. Otherwise, temperatures already peaked this afternoon, kept a bit on the low side due to some lingering clouds earlier in the day. Cool air remains in place Wednesday behind the departing trough. As an upper ridge begins to build in over the region, we will see below- normal temperatures and clearing skies, after some lingering showers over the plains dissipate in the morning.
Upper level trough persists from the western Great Lakes through the central plains. The upper level trough and surface front will continue to slow progress through the area today. Cloud cover and precipitation will keep high temperatures in the low to mid 70s.
355 AM EDT Wed Sep 24 2025 A stationary front remains over the area as a low pressure system moves northeast along this front through tonight.
This activity is expected to persist through the pre-dawn hours before the approach of the parent upper trough shifts forcing and likely reduces precip coverage for a period. Clouds may start to break up in the late morning and afternoon allowing for a little destabilization during the day today before the upper trough and associated cold front approach from the northwest. The initial upper pattern brings broad surface ridging behind the front. The GFS is a little more forceful in keeping a more blocked pattern setup and keeping low level moisture at bay where the ECMWF creeps a little bit more moisture in under a stalled cut-off low.
1114 PM MDT Tue Sep 23 2025 - Warmer and drier conditions move in for the next couple of days before moisture increases from south to north throughout the weekend. A low pressure system currently centered over northeast Colorado has been slow to move out today. Instead of tracking east with the center of the low, a ridge building in over Idaho and western Wyoming resulted in an easterly propagation of the back half of the low over northwest Colorado. Tonight the trough overhead will finally push east giving way to high pressure building across the Intermountain West. High pressure will bring warmer and drier conditions to the region tomorrow with mostly sunny skies.
- Cooler temperatures and dry weather late this week and this weekend. (Today and tonight) The combination of mid to upper level lift, a cold front and a favorable upper level jet will result in medium to high chances of showers and thunderstorms today through this evening. Much cooler today with highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s. (Wednesday night through next Tuesday) The cold front that brought rain chances during the day on Wednesday will have moved into south central Texas by Wednesday evening.
(Rest of tonight and Wednesday) Southwesterly flow will continue to result in increasing moisture across the Tennessee Valley overnight as a weak upper wave moves across the lower OH River Valley. The risk for a few strong to severe storms will increase as we head into tomorrow afternoon and evening as an upper low and associated trough becomes better amplified as it shifts east across the Great Lakes and Midwest regions and a second wave generates a multi- cellular or linear complex of storms across eastern TX.
Although the fog should burn off a few hours after sunrise, the low clouds will likely persist across northern Wisconsin due to the persistent influx of moisture.
- A cold front is currently moving through North Texas, increasing storm chances across much of the region later tonight into Wednesday morning.
Ongoing showers and storms are supported by the passage of a weak short wave along the base of a much larger longwave trough.
203 AM MDT Wed Sep 24 2025 - Warmer and drier conditions move in for the next couple of days before moisture increases from south to north throughout the weekend. High pressure will be settling over the Intermountain West today. separating a closed low off the Cali coast and a large trough East of the Rockies.
Updated at 1123 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025 - Another round of strong to severe storms is forecast for this afternoon, mainly along and east of the Mississippi River, ahead of an approaching cold front. - A cold front will bring drier and much cooler air for the end of the week, with pleasant conditions expected for the weekend. However, south of I-40 and ahead of a cold front, HREF guidance continues to advertise moderate instability developing by early to mid afternoon across most of north Mississippi and portions of west Tennessee near the TN River.
1224 AM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025 The upper-level weather pattern for much of this week will see the subtropical ridge suppressed to the south with broad and positively tilted trough over much of the central and eastern CONUS.