Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
239 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 - Scattered storms expected to move through northwest Missouri this morning, but dry conditions return by the afternoon - Warm and Humid Conditions This Week - Additional Shower/Storm Chances Throughout This Week Thunderstorms linger through the morning hours but are expected to move out by mid morning with trough axis shifting east. The highest concern would be gusty winds. Mid level ridging sets up over the east coast and builds for the next several days. On Sunday expect highs to reach into the low to mid 90s (5- 10 degrees above normal).
This should help keep overnight lows a warmer than last night.
Below average temperatures and dry conditions continue over the next several days before we see a return to warmer weather late in the week.
212 AM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024 Strong high pressure will gradually build over the region through much of the week keeping temperatures above normal.
1211 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 (The rest of tonight) Both surface and mid-level ridging across the Southeast CONUS continues to drive in modest warm air advection into the region this evening. Overnight low temperatures will bottom out the low-mid 70s -- generally about 5-7 degrees warmer than seasonal average.
A strong upper ridge axis drifting eastward into the southern Atlantic states coupled with low level flow veering to the SSE should again allow temps later today to climb well into the mid/perhaps upper 90s for many spots.
This will leave a dry and warm night across the region with lows Sunday morning in the low to mid 70s.
(Tonight through Monday night) High temperatures will continue to range from the low 90s along the coast to near 105 across the Brush Country today and Monday.
1220 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 (Rest of today through Monday) Upper level ridging has taken hold across the southeast United States today and the result will be the warmest temperatures we've seen so far this calendar year. While the upper ridge will pretty much be overhead today, it will slip eastward overnight and this may very well open the door for some of us to see our first chance for rain in quite awhile tomorrow. With the ridge moving east of us tonight, this will also put Middle TN in a weak southerly flow.
322 AM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024 High pressure will cover the region through the end of the week. The weather pattern during the early half of the coming workweek will be dominated by an area of upper level high pressure centered over the lower Mid-Atlantic. The high pressure will be unusually strong for this time of year, and will result in afternoon temperatures that are well above-normal through the period. Factor in increased humidity as dewpoints rise into the low to mid 60s, abundant sunshine and light winds, temperatures will feel anywhere from the upper 80s to the mid 90s across the Piedmont and the mountain river valleys, though the higher terrain west of the Blue Ridge will feel slightly cooler.
High pressure, drier conditions, and slightly above normal temperatures are then expected through much of the upcoming week. An upper ridge continues to build over the Southeast today and tonight, allowing for continued warmth across the forecast area.
Low pressure across west Texas will provide a relatively strong pressure gradient across west central Texas especially on Sunday.
There will be another shot at some isolated storms, though mostly confined to the higher terrain.
134 AM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024 A strong mid level ridge will develop across the eastern U.
We are still under the influence of the mid-level ridge currently over the southern United States that is tracking eastwards.
(Today through Monday Night) Mostly calm and dry conditions are expected through Sunday under strong high pressure. By Monday, high pressure will still be over the area but some showers and thunderstorms will be possible across a good portion of the state.
(Today through Monday) An upper level ridge extends over TX from northern Mexico this morning. In the lower levels high pressure off to the east is producing southeasterly flow over South Central Texas. Temperatures this morning are in the upper 70s and lower 80s and dewpoints range from the lower 60s to the middle 70s. The upper ridge will suppress convection today and tonight and our forecast is dry for the next 24 hours. Monday an upper trough over the Gulf will push the ridge back toward the west.
Another hot and humid day today with highs in the low 90s and heat indices in the mid to upper 90s. Temperatures/Heat: Sunday and Monday will see highs in the low to mid 90s and heat index values in the mid to upper 90s, but overnight lows in the low 70s will bring some relief.
An upper-level composite analysis early this morning reveals a building deep layer ridge over most of the eastern United States. During the last 24 hours, geopotential heights over the Florida Keys have risen through the lower and middle troposphere.
South Central Texas will remain positioned along the northern periphery of upper level high pressure located over Mexico. Overall, warmer than normal temperatures and dry conditions are forecast this weekend across most of the area.
Some relief from the heat is forecast for today and Monday with afternoon high temperatures around 5 degrees cooler today with an additional 3-5 degrees of cooling on Monday.
932 AM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024 High pressure over the region will continue dry and warm conditions through the rest of the weekend. High pressure over the area will keep conditions warm and mostly dry. Sunday will feature mostly clear to partly cloudy skies and high temperatures in the high 70s to low 80s. Things heat up for Monday, with temperatures increasing into the high 80s to low 90s, with potential for afternoon thunderstorms for Central NY west of I-81.
634 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 (Today through Monday) An upper ridge will continue shifting eastward across the southeastern United States today. Southeasterly flow will be in place over Alabama around the southwestern periphery of the ridge. Highs this afternoon should rival yesterday, although likely a degree or two cooler this afternoon. After another night of lows in the low to mid 70s, highs Monday will reach only to low to mid 90s.
Depending on how long clouds last down south, temperatures could stay a degree or so cooler than expected. Rain and lightning chances remain low but non-zero, with the highest chance (30-40 PoP) situated from Leesburg to the Kissimmee River and Lake Okeechobee. The pgrad continues to tighten this week as onshore winds winds increase to 15-20 kts into Wed, perhaps stronger Wed aftn-Thu with the approach of low pressure over the western Atlc, which does have some potential to develop by around mid-week as it ventures quickly toward the FL peninsula.
Offshore, a frontal boundary associated with a broad area of low pressure remains offshore, but it will dig southward as it pushes into the Pacific Northwest later today. The big thing regarding this low is that there is the general track of the cutoff circulation amongst the broader low and its associated frontal boundary. What we do know is that today will see cooler afternoon temperatures and breezy winds especially inland.
Showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue today as an upper level trough remains over the region. The trough will shift east on Monday with lingering showers over higher terrain. A warming and drying trend will commence for the remainder of the week as high pressure aloft gradually builds into the region.
628 AM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024 High pressure over the region will continue dry and warm conditions through the rest of the weekend. High pressure over the area will keep conditions warm and mostly dry. Sunday will feature mostly clear to partly cloudy skies and high temperatures in the high 70s to low 80s. Things heat up for Monday, with temperatures increasing into the high 80s to low 90s, with potential for afternoon thunderstorms for Central NY west of I-81.
638 AM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024 High pressure will cover the region through the end of the week. The weather pattern during the early half of the coming workweek will be dominated by an area of upper level high pressure centered over the lower Mid-Atlantic. The high pressure will be unusually strong for this time of year, and will result in afternoon temperatures that are well above-normal through the period. Factor in increased humidity as dewpoints rise into the low to mid 60s, abundant sunshine and light winds, temperatures will feel anywhere from the upper 80s to the mid 90s across the Piedmont and the mountain river valleys, though the higher terrain west of the Blue Ridge will feel slightly cooler.
650 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 (Today through Monday) An upper level ridge extends over TX from northern Mexico this morning. In the lower levels high pressure off to the east is producing southeasterly flow over South Central Texas. Temperatures this morning are in the upper 70s and lower 80s and dewpoints range from the lower 60s to the middle 70s. The upper ridge will suppress convection today and tonight and our forecast is dry for the next 24 hours. Monday an upper trough over the Gulf will push the ridge back toward the west.
523 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 (Today) A weak upper level trough is moving through the area, but the lower atmosphere is generally too stable and dry to promote a risk of more than a few isolated showers or storms across the area. High temperatures will be about the same as yesterday, mostly in the lower 90s with continued humid conditions. There will be about a 10% chance of a pop up storm across the higher terrain of southeast OK and northwest AR, so any storms that do occur will be few and far between.
449 AM MDT Sun Jun 16 2024 - Cold front passing through early this morning, with strong northwest winds behind the front. Current surface analysis shows cold frontal boundary passing through the forecast area early this morning. Strong pressure rises behind the cold front will allow for gusty northwest winds for a brief time this morning, with gusts 50 to 65 mph possible over much of the western SD plains area. Temperatures will be much cooler behind the cold front today, with highs ranging from the upper 60s over the Black Hills, to around 80 in south central SD. An even cooler day is expected for Monday, with low level northeasterly flow over the region.
315 AM PDT Sun Jun 16 2024 A trough deepening down the West Coast will bring a few degrees of cooling today and Monday, but it will still be quite warm.
918 AM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024 Easterly flow will be establishing today as stronger high pressure builds into the area. Will be continuing to monitor the area of low pressure off the east FL coast, currently with a 30 percent chance of development over the next 7 days. Flow is transitioning to a deeper easterly direction today as stronger high pressure builds into the area.
- Scattered storms expected to move through northwest Missouri this morning, but dry conditions return by the afternoon - Warm and Humid Conditions This Week - Additional Shower/Storm Chances Throughout This Week Thunderstorms linger through the morning hours but are expected to move out by mid morning with trough axis shifting east. The highest concern would be gusty winds. Mid level ridging sets up over the east coast and builds for the next several days. On Sunday expect highs to reach into the low to mid 90s (5- 10 degrees above normal).
Cold front continues to progress across central and eastern portion of the state this morning. The highest confidence for these winds still remains in the northwest, although shortly before this publish some of these stronger winds have been reported already in western and some central portions after passage of the front.
517 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 (Today through Monday afternoon) WV imagery shows the exiting upper trough approaching the MS Valley this morning, leaving West Texas and Southeast New Mexico to the whims of the ridge. As such, thicknesses are forecast to jump today as the ridge strengthens in the trough's wake, adding ~ 3 F or so onto yesterday's highs.
Temperatures along the Island Chain are in the lower to mid 80s with dew points in the upper 70s to near 80 degrees. From synopsis, gentle to moderate breezes this afternoon will gradually increase over the next couple of days due to high pressure building in from the north and falling pressures near the Yucatan Peninsula and Bay of Campeche. On this day in 1906, a Category One Hurricane moved slowly to the north-northeast crossing what is now the Seven Mile Bridge.
623 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 (Today through Monday Night) Mostly calm and dry conditions are expected through Sunday under strong high pressure. By Monday, high pressure will still be over the area but some showers and thunderstorms will be possible across a good portion of the state.
608 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 (Tonight through Monday night) High temperatures will continue to range from the low 90s along the coast to near 105 across the Brush Country today and Monday.
- Hot temperatures continue Monday with highs in the lower 90s and afternoon heat index values 95 to 100.
624 AM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024 A strong upper level ridge will remain in place through this week, resulting in near-record heat across the region.
1114 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 (Today through Monday Night) Mostly calm and dry conditions are expected through Sunday under strong high pressure. By Monday, high pressure will still be over the area but some showers and thunderstorms will be possible across a good portion of the state.
Overnight lows in the KC Metro may struggle to get below 75 F each night/morning and afternoon temps will hover in the lower 90s with heat index values in the upper 90s. Mid-level WV reveals the broad ridge holding over the eastern CONUS, with troughing to the west.
259 PM MDT Sun Jun 16 2024 Cooler than normal temperatures prevail, while the next weather producer enters the region.
(This evening through Monday Night) A weak perturbation in the flow aloft is rotating around the western periphery of an upper-level ridge centered over the Carolinas. Most locations should see at least some chance for rain, but the highest chances for rain should be across Central and Northeast Louisiana.
Otherwise, low storm chances are also in place across northwest Oklahoma this evening where isolated to scattered convection could form across the High Plains and move into our area.
We looked at upstream weather balloon soundings at Quillayute and Spokane, Washington to help us understand how cold the incoming trough is compared to climatology. The freezing level was at 4458 feet. Of course this trough will moderate a little bit in 24 hours as it swings eastward.
112 PM PDT Sun Jun 16 2024 Near to slightly below average temperatures will occur through the middle of the week as a trough of low pressure stays over the western portion of the country. High pressure will reemerge later this week, leading to above average temperatures for areas away from the coast once again. WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO A deepening trough of low pressure over the Pacific Northwest will influence our weather pattern through the middle of the week. Breezy winds can be expected this afternoon across the mountains and deserts, with higher winds on Monday as the trough axis crosses over the West Coast.
1238 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 Air temperatures are running about 2 to 4 degrees warmer than at this time yesterday. Most locations are in the low to mid 90s. The majority of locations are in the lower 70s, but several airports are reporting mid to upper 70s this past hour. The combination of warmer air temperatures and higher dewpoints has pushed heat indices into the triple digits nearly areawide.
(Rest of today through Monday) Satellite imagery this afternoon shows the center of a strong high pressure system to our east. A very similar pattern sets up on Monday as the high pressure remains centered to our east over the Carolinas. The strong high pressure becomes centered over the mid-Atlantic states, but it will be strong enough to extinguish our own precipitation chances for several days.
Low pressure maintains cool and showery conditions today, with a chance of thunderstorms across much of the area this afternoon and evening.
(Tonight) Another hot/humid day across the Tennessee Valley with early afternoon temperatures in the low/mid 90s forecast to climb an additional 2-3 degrees before the day is done. Dewpoints have held in the lower 70s in most locations and subsequently heat indices range from 97 to 104 degrees across the area as of 18z. Overnight lows in the low to mid 70s will be common once again.
413 PM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024 A weak cold front will linger over the area tonight before dissipating early this week. High pressure will then ridge in from offshore mid to late week. This Evening: A weak cold front will be located across our area. Tonight: Mid-level ridging persists, maybe even strengthening a bit. The weak cold front across our area should gradually lift to the north.
Locally heavy rainfall possible, but the highest amounts look to remain north of the state at this time.
1223 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 (Today through Monday) An upper level ridge extends over TX from northern Mexico this morning. In the lower levels high pressure off to the east is producing southeasterly flow over South Central Texas. Temperatures this morning are in the upper 70s and lower 80s and dewpoints range from the lower 60s to the middle 70s. The upper ridge will suppress convection today and tonight and our forecast is dry for the next 24 hours. Monday an upper trough over the Gulf will push the ridge back toward the west.
Highs this afternoon will top out in the low-to-mid 90s (aside from northeast Georgia, which will remain in the upper-70s to 80s). Monday looks to be a few degrees "cooler", with highs in the upper-80s to lower-90s expected. Sensible differences in temperature under the wedge are unlikely to be felt outside of far northeast Georgia, where highs will be 5-6 degrees lower, in the low-to-mid 80s.
GOES East water vapor/synoptic analysis indicate mid-level ridge centered over the Carolinas to Appalachians, with southerly return flow on the western periphery across the area. Aftn heat & humidity remains on tap, with highs expected in the mid-upper 90s north of I-20 & more seasonable in the low 90s southeast of the Natchez Trace corridor. A couple strong storms can't be ruled out, especially any that orient orthogonal to the southeasterly low-level bulk shear, but limited vertical totals/lapse rates lower confidence & microburst potential remain on the lower side.
Discussion: The upper high center is past us now, leaving us with a little less suppression of afternoon storms.
1201 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 (Today through Monday afternoon) WV imagery shows the exiting upper trough approaching the MS Valley this morning, leaving West Texas and Southeast New Mexico to the whims of the ridge. As such, thicknesses are forecast to jump today as the ridge strengthens in the trough's wake, adding ~ 3 F or so onto yesterday's highs.
1114 AM MDT Sun Jun 16 2024 - Cold front passing through early this morning, with strong northwest winds behind the front. Current surface analysis shows cold frontal boundary passing through the forecast area early this morning. Strong pressure rises behind the cold front will allow for gusty northwest winds for a brief time this morning, with gusts 50 to 65 mph possible over much of the western SD plains area. Temperatures will be much cooler behind the cold front today, with highs ranging from the upper 60s over the Black Hills, to around 80 in south central SD. An even cooler day is expected for Monday, with low level northeasterly flow over the region.
Tonight and Monday It's been a pleasant, albeit cooler than normal, Sunday across eastern Idaho. An U/L trough will continue to push south and east over the next 36 hours and should be centered across the Idaho panhandle by tomorrow afternoon.
A weak cold front will move through the area from north to south today. Offshore, a frontal boundary associated with a broad area of low pressure remains offshore, but it will dig southward as it pushes into the Pacific Northwest later today. The big thing regarding this low is that there is the general track of the cutoff circulation amongst the broader low and its associated frontal boundary. What we do know is that today will see cooler afternoon temperatures and breezy winds especially inland.
1156 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 (Rest of today through Monday) Satellite imagery this afternoon shows the center of a strong high pressure system to our east. A very similar pattern sets up on Monday as the high pressure remains centered to our east over the Carolinas. The strong high pressure becomes centered over the mid-Atlantic states, but it will be strong enough to extinguish our own precipitation chances for several days.
112 PM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024 High pressure builds in from the north and maintains control through much of this week. Onshore flow should help keep temperatures 3-8 degrees cooler than yesterday. High pressure will extend into the area from the north today and tonight while an old front lingers to the south and west. Highs today will reach the upper 80s to lower 90s with cooler numbers nearer the beaches. The aforementioned mid level ridge in the short term discussion will shift northward with the modified easterly flow continuing. Temperatures remain within a few degrees of climatology leaning warmer late. Medium range guidance is also liking a tropical wave or low moving across the region (probably more south considering the massive ridge) which may bring a few showers and or increased cloud cover later in the period as well.
100 PM MDT Sun Jun 16 2024 - A cold front pushes across the forecast area Monday increasing the chance for precipitation, especially across the north. Gusty west to northwest wind follows the front along with much cooler temperatures. Sub-freezing temperatures look likely for the western valleys/basins.
148 PM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024 High pressure over the region will continue dry and warm conditions through the rest of the weekend. Water vapor imagery shows the upper level ridge starting to build in with surface winds becoming more southerly west of I81 early this afternoon. With the lower dew points, heat indexes look to get warm but most of the area will be staying below 90 outside of some of the river valleys and coastal plain of Lake Ontario.
(This evening through Monday) Most of the state of Texas is between the 500mb subtropical ridge across northwest Mexico and the 500mb ridge along the middle Atlantic United States coastline.
329 PM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024 High pressure just to our north should provide dry weather and easterly winds for the first half of the week.
Looking at the big picture this afternoon the cold front is located well off to the southeast with a weak area of relatively cooler high pressure over the forecast area. An upper low is located over central Saskatchewan/Manitoba with a trough extending southwestward to another low over the Pacific Northwest. An even cooler day is expected for Monday, with low level easterly flow continuing over the region. Enhanced lift ahead of the approaching PacNW trough may lead to more thunderstorms on Monday afternoon and evening, especially over the warmer parts of northeastern Wyoming and south central South Dakota.
An upper trough approaching from the northwest will bring increasing clouds today, especially to southeast Oregon and central Idaho. There is less than a 20 percent chance that showers reach Baker County this afternoon along the leading edge of the trough. Gusts 20-30 kt tonight as a cold front moves through.