Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Convection will continue to favor the higher terrain with frequent lightning, locally heavy rainfall, and gusty winds possible. The low temperature this morning was 91 in Las Vegas. If temperatures do not drop below 90F before midnight, this will break the record for consecutive days of low temperatures 90F or warmer in the month of June. Wind gusts will be stronger today and Friday as a trough quickly progresses east through the northern states. While drier air will allow for 'cooler' overnight lows.
Somewhat warmer conditions are expected Friday followed by weak systems that will keep temperatures in check and bring a slight chance of precipitation over the weekend.
Friday will be a cooler day behind the front with high temperatures remaining in the 60s and 70s. Breezy conditions will develop across the area with 25 to 45 mph northwesterly wind gusts common, strongest over the higher hills and along the western foothills.
414 PM EDT Thu Jun 27 2024 High pressure building across Pennsylvania and New York tonight will bring quiet weather that should last into Friday. A warm front will lift north Friday night with increasing chances of showers.
(Tonight through Friday night) A disturbance over the eastern portion of the upper-level ridge centered over far west Texas may allow for some thunderstorm development over Central Texas mid to late afternoon. There is another low end chance for precipitation Friday afternoon, this time over the far eastern coastal plains, associated with a weak inverted trough.
(This afternoon through Friday night) WV imagery shows the upper ridge centered from northern Sonora to West Texas, portending another warm day for West Texas and Southeast New Mexico. Friday, the ridge shifts slightly east, and thicknesses increase, adding a couple of degrees to today's highs and yielding the warmest day this forecast as temperatures top out ~ 10 F above normal. W/the slight shifting of the ridge to the east, convective chances over the higher terrain will be a little higher than today's, but not by much.
The mid/upper level ridge will strengthen and expand early this weekend, so will likely need an expansion of heat advisories this weekend.
336 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 (This afternoon through Friday night) WV imagery shows the upper ridge centered from northern Sonora to West Texas, portending another warm day for West Texas and Southeast New Mexico. Friday, the ridge shifts slightly east, and thicknesses increase, adding a couple of degrees to today's highs and yielding the warmest day this forecast as temperatures top out ~ 10 F above normal. W/the slight shifting of the ridge to the east, convective chances over the higher terrain will be a little higher than today's, but not by much.
(Tonight) An upper level trough axis and associated sfc front continues to shift southeast through the local area, and has resulted in scattered to numerous showers this afternoon.
Locations along the Northern Rocky Mountain Front and adjacent higher plains may see gusts over 50 mph during the passage of an elevated cold front. An upper level trof rolls across The Treasure State, today, with the attendant cold front impacting our region. Considering the timing of cold frontal passage, thunderstorms develop early and continue through the day. Cooler temperatures, follow.
There is a couple of stray storms which have formed along a slowly southward sagging cold front draped across the Great Basin, which are currently impacting far northern Lincoln County, but otherwise dry conditions exist elsewhere. A closed low is pushing into the Pacific Northwest today, which will result in an associated trough axis pushing through our forecast area this afternoon. This trough axis will usher dry air into the region, effectively squashing precipitation chances everywhere except for the eastern fringes of our County Warning Area (CWA). The low temperature this morning in Las Vegas was 91 degrees.
724 PM EDT Thu Jun 27 2024 High pressure remains intact through Friday, keeping the forecast dry.
Subtle troughing remains in place over the southeastern US with upper ridging to our west.
Weak ridging has started to build into the region today, contributing to the slow erosion of this morning's marine stratus along the coast and in the Umpqua Basin.
642 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 (This evening through Friday night) Through tonight, the upper level ridge of high pressure has temporarily flattened and become depressed south of the forecast area. For Friday and Friday night, heights rise some as the upper level ridge of high pressure reasserts itself over the southern plains.
316 PM MDT Thu Jun 27 2024 Cold front has moved through Yellowstone and Musselshell counties, pushing storms east of these areas. Friday will be a cooler day behind the front with high temperatures remaining in the 60s and 70s. Breezy conditions will develop across the area with 25 to 45 mph northwesterly wind gusts common, strongest over the higher hills and along the western foothills.
536 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 (This evening through Friday) An upper level ridge will continue to dominate the weather across West Central Texas through the next 24 hours, resulting generally dry and hot conditions.
A closed low is pushing into the Pacific Northwest today, which will result in an associated trough axis pushing through our forecast area this afternoon. This trough axis will usher dry air into the region, effectively squashing precipitation chances everywhere except for the eastern fringes of our County Warning Area (CWA). The low temperature this morning in Las Vegas was 91 degrees.
514 PM EDT Thu Jun 27 2024 *Seasonable end to the week with comfortable humidity *Return of heat+humidity fuels T-storms this weekend *Cooler & dry start to July; heat & T-storms by the 4th Cu will crumble this evening setting up a refreshingly cool and mainly clear night across central PA. Beneath dome of 1020mb high pressure, synoptic conditions support fog formation late tonight into early Friday morning in the river/stream valleys across the western and northern Alleghenies.
701 PM EDT Thu Jun 27 2024 - Cloudier, warmer, and a bit more humid on Friday.
950 PM EDT Thu Jun 27 2024 High pressure remains intact through Friday, keeping the forecast dry.
701 PM EDT Thu Jun 27 2024 *Seasonable end to the week with comfortable humidity *Return of heat+humidity fuels T-storms this weekend *Cooler & dry start to July; heat & T-storms by the 4th 645 pm update. Beneath dome of 1020mb high pressure, synoptic conditions support fog formation late tonight into early Friday morning in the river/stream valleys across the western and northern Alleghenies.
635 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 (This evening through Friday Night) Cold front continues to advance south this afternoon, taking a decent amount of time to exit the SHV CWA. The front will then retreat back north as a warm front Friday afternoon/evening. Aloft, upper ridging will continue to build into the region this evening, and overnight before completely influencing the local area by Friday afternoon. Overnight temperatures will trend mild, with lows by Friday morning ranging from the upper 60's across the north, to the low to mid 70's across the central and southern zones. As the aforementioned boundary advances back north tomorrow, temperatures and dew points will begin to climb as maxT's approach the mid to upper 90's, with area dew points returning into the low to mid 70's.
636 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 (This evening through Friday) Our period of ridging has almost come to a close, in large part due to an upper level trough that is working its way through the Pacific Northwest right now, which will turn our flow more zonal. Looking at tomorrow, the ridge will give its last heat blast for the region, as Friday looks to be one of the hottest so far this summer.
608 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 (Tonight) An upper level trough axis and associated sfc front continues to shift southeast through the local area, and has resulted in scattered to numerous showers this afternoon.
Theme of coastal shower and storm chances during the morning into afternoon before spreading to the interior during the afternoon continues as high pressure ridging remains over the southern Gulf providing W-SW flow across the area. Humid conditions expected to persist with temps running near average, with highs in the lower to mid 90s and lows mainly in the 70s. Florida remains situated between upper ridging extending westward through the Florida Strait and upper troughing over the southeast U. On the surface, high pressure ridges south of Florida and into the central Gulf of Mexico.
Skies are expected to clear inland as this high cloud continues to progress eastward this evening. Broad, weak ridging is expected build into the region Friday, driving interior temperatures back into the 90s. Long-range models indicate anomalous warm ridging building into the eastern Pacific, coupled with potential for min RHs in the teens and single digits by mid- week. Winds at the coast will "rev up" today due to increasing interaction between offshore building high pressure and the inland thermal low pressure. Winds slightly diminish from north to south throughout the weekend as another upper level trough moves over the area.
Southerly winds set to transport warmer conditions Friday afternoon.
738 PM EDT Thu Jun 27 2024 (Rest of today through Friday) Mesoanalysis early this afternoon depicts much of the same, South Florida remains nestled within a relatively quiet synoptic regime, with a longwave trough extending into the Gulf of Mexico and quasi- zonal flow predominantly encompassing the southern peninsula. This will maintain a southwesterly to westerly flow regime through much of the low to mid troposphere, which will maintain a fairly persistent and predictable convective regime with activity once again favoring the east coast metro areas over the next several hours. Overnight low temperatures will span the low to upper 70s.
These clouds along with southerly low level flow returning will help to keep low temps tonight a little warmer compared to last night.
1049 PM EDT Thu Jun 27 2024 *Seasonable end to the week with comfortable humidity *Return of heat+humidity fuels T-storms this weekend *Cooler & dry start to July; heat & T-storms by the 4th 645 pm update. Beneath dome of 1020mb high pressure, synoptic conditions support fog formation late tonight into early Friday morning in the river/stream valleys across the western and northern Alleghenies.
624 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 (Tonight through Friday night) A disturbance over the eastern portion of the upper-level ridge centered over far west Texas may allow for some thunderstorm development over Central Texas mid to late afternoon. There is another low end chance for precipitation Friday afternoon, this time over the far eastern coastal plains, associated with a weak inverted trough.
The higher values are along the international border to the southeastern Cochise County, along with better environment for thunderstorms. This weekend, the high pressure center will push off to the east and be a better position to bring in southerly moisture flow.
643 PM EDT Thu Jun 27 2024 *Seasonable end to the week with comfortable humidity *Return of heat+humidity fuels T-storms this weekend *Cooler & dry start to July; heat & T-storms by the 4th 645 pm update. Beneath dome of 1020mb high pressure, synoptic conditions support fog formation late tonight into early Friday morning in the river/stream valleys across the western and northern Alleghenies.
819 PM EDT Thu Jun 27 2024 - Cloudier, warmer, and a bit more humid on Friday.
733 PM EDT Thu Jun 27 2024 High pressure building across Pennsylvania and New York tonight will bring quiet weather that should last into Friday. A warm front will lift north Friday night with increasing chances of showers.
The upper level ridge will be ushered eastward overtop the region in response to an eastward-moving closed low in the PACNW. A mid-level ridge will continue scorching North and Central Texas, which is slowly moving its way east to reposition itself across portions of the Southern Plains.
554 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 (Tonight through Friday night) An upper-level ridge will be the primary driver of the weather the next couple of days. Lows tonight remain persistent, from the mid 70s inland to the lower 80s along the coast. The increase in moisture will lead to a degree or two warmer low temperatures on Friday night.
1009 PM EDT Thu Jun 27 2024 *Seasonable end to the week with comfortable humidity *Return of heat+humidity fuels T-storms this weekend *Cooler & dry start to July; heat & T-storms by the 4th 645 pm update. Beneath dome of 1020mb high pressure, synoptic conditions support fog formation late tonight into early Friday morning in the river/stream valleys across the western and northern Alleghenies.
255 AM EDT Fri Jun 28 2024 High pressure builds today, then slowly exits to the east through Saturday.
1242 AM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024 (This evening through Saturday) The upper level ridge over the SW US will be migrating eastward and flattening out a bit, eventually bringing the center of the ridge over Arkansas by Saturday. At the surface, the remnant cold front that passed thru the area yesterday will be moving back north as a warm front tomorrow and tomorrow night, and on Saturday another cold front will be approaching the area from the northwest. The moisture will be back in the wake of the warm front, and high temperatures will be in the 95-100 degree range across much of the forecast area.
Broad ridging in the low to mid levels lingers across the Florida Keys waters.
334 AM EDT Fri Jun 28 2024 High pressure brings fair weather today into Saturday morning. Low pressure tracking east across Quebec will lift a warm front into the area late Saturday bringing rain.
310 AM EDT Fri Jun 28 2024 High pressure will move off the New England coast today and tonight. A cold front will approach the area late in the weekend.
Weak ridging will remain over the area tonight. We're anticipating some more IFR to LIFR ceilings along the coast tonight as high pressure builds.
Tomorrow, we get a southerly return flow as high pressure begins to develop just off the east coast.
Rain continues to spread into northwest Montana, particularly in the Glacier Region, as moisture wraps around the low-pressure center just north of the Canadian border. The low-pressure system will move east today, causing rain to decrease from west to east. High pressure will briefly build into the Northern Rockies on Saturday, leading to temperatures 5-10 degrees above average.
A cold front is expected to bring slightly cooler and drier conditions to start off the work week, but building high pressure will allow the return of temperatures near the century mark by mid- week. High pressure aloft will be building back into the area through the day, but there is still a surface boundary over the area helping to produce weak convergence. Temperatures very similar to yesterday, reaching only into the lower 90s in most areas.
(Today through Saturday afternoon) While the upper ridge overhead is being flattened some by a trough cruising through the northern Rockies, this nudges the center of the ridge (and low-level thermal ridge) more over our area. With the ridge center displaced a bit further east on Saturday, the low level thermal ridge falls a few degrees Celsius and high temperatures return to similar values from what was seen yesterday, albeit still quite hot. Under the mild subsidence from the ridge, the only storm chances remain confined to the western high terrain and the higher elevations of southeastern New Mexico both this afternoon and Saturday afternoon.
- Another round of strong to severe thunderstorms is expected Friday as a cold front sweeps across the CWA. The placement of this low-level moisture through this afternoon will be important to watch as the atmosphere continues to destabilize as it will have significant impacts on the instability profiles as up to 2000 J/kg of CAPE could be available, but it appears more likely that storms will only be able to tap into ~500 J/kg across the NE panhandle. Will need to continue to monitor for additional Cu development farther north near the Pine Ridge as CAMs have been initiating storms across a localized moisture pool before quickly moving east as well.
Latest water vapor imagery shows broad troughing encompassing much of the PacNW. Despite lift under the trough axis, the airmass overhead is relatively cool and dry, thus limiting shower activity to the Washington Cascade crests. Even then, shower activity is beginning to wind down as we head into the early evening hours as the center of the trough enters western Montana.
(Friday through Saturday night) Southerly flow will return to the area on Friday as broad upper ridging spreads east from the central Plains. Overnight lows will be in the low to mid 70s each night, offering little relief from the heat.
Overnight low temperatures will range from the low to upper 70s.
944 PM MDT Thu Jun 27 2024 KEY MESSAGES: 1) Breezy west to northwest winds are expected on Friday behind the cold front, with Lake Wind conditions. 2) Cooler temperatures are also expected Friday and Saturday with showers and isolated thunderstorms Friday.
307 AM EDT Fri Jun 28 2024 High pressure builds today, then slowly exits to the east through Saturday.
The mid/upper level ridge will strengthen and expand early this weekend, so will likely need an expansion of heat advisories this weekend. Min temps are expected to gradually increase some with mins on Saturday morning in the lower 80s coast to upper 70s inland.
Weak embedded troughing throughout the eastern half of the central plains has resulted in lingering light showers and isolated thunderstorms during the morning and afternoon. Things begin to quiet down for the weekend as upper ridging attempts to spread over the central plains.
1243 AM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024 (This afternoon through Friday night) WV imagery shows the upper ridge centered from northern Sonora to West Texas, portending another warm day for West Texas and Southeast New Mexico. Friday, the ridge shifts slightly east, and thicknesses increase, adding a couple of degrees to today's highs and yielding the warmest day this forecast as temperatures top out ~ 10 F above normal. W/the slight shifting of the ridge to the east, convective chances over the higher terrain will be a little higher than today's, but not by much.
1203 AM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024 (Tonight through Friday night) An upper-level ridge will be the primary driver of the weather the next couple of days. Lows tonight remain persistent, from the mid 70s inland to the lower 80s along the coast. The increase in moisture will lead to a degree or two warmer low temperatures on Friday night.
202 AM EDT Fri Jun 28 2024 High pressure remains intact through Friday, keeping the forecast dry. Warmer temperatures arrive on Friday and into Saturday, with additional rounds of showers and storms on Saturday with an approaching system. High pressure and dry conditions will be present overnight. High pressure continues to push eastward.
1246 AM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024 (This evening through Friday) An upper level ridge will continue to dominate the weather across West Central Texas through the next 24 hours, resulting generally dry and hot conditions.
The chance for precipitation today will be confined to the far northern areas, as another upper low swings through the state. Saturday will be slightly warmer, with ridging beginning to build into the region.
Winds will start out from a southerly direction this morning, shifting to the northwest as a weak cold front moves through the area.
(Today through Saturday Night) An upper level ridge is working its way eastward toward Arkansas this morning. The upper ridge will be over Arkansas Saturday and will remain in place through Saturday night. High pressure and subsidence will keep dry conditions over the state through early Saturday. A cold front will drop out of the Plains into north Arkansas Saturday evening. Warm conditions will continue today but warmer conditions are expected Saturday. Lows tonight will be in the 70s and in the lower 70s to near 80 degrees Saturday night.
Discussion: Some very weak short wave energy moving across the area early this morning may support a few showers mainly south early this morning, but heights will be rising today as upper ridging builds. Highs today will generally be in the lower 90s across valley locations.
This should yield cooler temperatures for most areas with highs in the 80s and 90s.
The strong southerly return flow ahead of the northern tier trof is quick to bring back strong instability and moisture with over 3000J/kg of CAPE and 40kts of bulk shear by this afternoon. Another round of storms is possible later in the evening and overnight as storms develop along the western coldfront and move southeast into the high plains of western and central Kansas, with wind and hail the primary hazards.
(Today through Saturday Night) High pressure will continue to reign over SE Texas today with onshore flow continuing to funnel in moisture. This moisture will continue to be trapped under this dome of high pressure, continuing the streak of hot and humid days. Lows for tonight and Saturday night will continue to be on the warmer side as temperatures drop into the upper 70s to around 80Â°F As the streak of heat continues, please remember to practice heat safety! Stay hydrated, avoid strenuous activity at the hottest part of the day, and LOOK BEFORE YOU LOCK! Also, for pets.
As the high pressure center becomes established atop our region, temperatures are expected to be 3-5 degrees warmer compared to yesterday afternoon. The slightly warmer temperatures, coupled with moderate humidity once again this afternoon, will make for yet another uncomfortable afternoon outdoors. The immediate Dallas/Fort Worth Metroplex is likely to remain in the lower 80s tonight.
118 AM MDT Fri Jun 28 2024 -Breezy today with cooler temps.
Temperatures will be a few degrees warmer than today along with light winds.
DK Through Friday Night: Quiet conditions will persist into the overnight hours as a moderately strong high pressure lingers over Lake Ontario/Upstate New York. Warm advection will increase over the Western Corn Belt tonight and isentropic upglide over an approaching warm front will lead to showery precipitation over Iowa tonight. Going into tomorrow, this rain will have to fight some lingering low level dry air from the high pressure system, but with time, the low levels will saturate and light rain should spread in from the east and northeast with time, mainly in the afternoon.
1238 AM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024 (This evening through Friday) Our period of ridging has almost come to a close, in large part due to an upper level trough that is working its way through the Pacific Northwest right now, which will turn our flow more zonal. Looking at tomorrow, the ridge will give its last heat blast for the region, as Friday looks to be one of the hottest so far this summer.
Hot temperatures return today and will last through Saturday as a strong upper level ridge dominates weather patterns.
1248 AM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024 (This evening through Friday night) Through tonight, the upper level ridge of high pressure has temporarily flattened and become depressed south of the forecast area. For Friday and Friday night, heights rise some as the upper level ridge of high pressure reasserts itself over the southern plains. Pops return Friday night with highest values across north central and northeastern sections as a weak cold front moves through the OK Panhandle and most of the northern Texas Panhandle by 12Z Saturday.
Storms will once again be possible across far northern Oklahoma this evening and overnight as a cold front approaches the area, but the bulk of the activity is expected to be to our north.