Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
602 PM CST Fri Feb 16 2024 (This evening through Saturday night) As expected, conditions this afternoon across the Panhandles remain much cooler than NBM output suggested, with temperatures mired in the 30s and 40s under mostly cloudy skies in the wake of last night's cold frontal passage. While depth of the low level saturated layer may not reach the -12C level, with much of this layer progged to be around -8C, still think majority of hydrometeors will reach the surface as snow rather than freezing drizzle. After a cold Saturday courtesy of our light snow and overcast conditions, temperatures look to fall into the lower 20s under mostly clear skies.
522 PM CST Fri Feb 16 2024 (Tonight through Saturday night) The passing of a weak, mid-level trough axis this morning has led to a slight decrease in cloudcover, especially at lower levels. A strong cold front currently stretches from Denton to Abilene to Big Spring. The lowest temperatures will be in the Hill Country, but only a few spots should drop below 28F, which we generally consider as the threshold for a hard freeze.
A cold front currently extends just northwest of the Delta this afternoon and will sweep across the area this evening into the overnight hours. The showers will continue along the front as it moves across the area overnight, but expect the highest rainfall totals across the Delta. Saturday will be mostly cloudy, with highs ranging from the low 40s north to low 50s in the Pine Belt Region.
Across most of El Paso county, stations were reporting freezing drizzle and/or freezing fog with some noted ice accumulation in the KCOS ASOS obs. Until then upslope will keep the low clouds over most of the plains, especially across EL Paso county, and periods of denser fog and freezing drizzle will remain a threat.
Much cooler air will filter in behind the front and can already be found just to our NW with locations in TN already in the 30s. Temps are expect to fall through the night bottoming out in the low 30s at sunrise. Windchills tomorrow morning will be in the high teens to low 20s.
A strong cold front will continue to push south into north Mississippi this evening. Rain will taper off behind the cold front with a brief period of sleet or snow showers possible over northwest Tennessee.
A weak upper level ridge combined with strong offshore flow will lead to drier conditions over the region into tonight. A warm front will slide northward bringing light rain through the area into Saturday. Broad troughing over the west Coast will maintain showers through the weekend, before upper level ridging seems to rebound for another period of drier weather.
544 PM CST Fri Feb 16 2024 (The rest of this afternoon and Tonight) The cold front has fully worked its way through the CWA, mostly without any major fanfare other than gusty northerly winds and some light rain and drizzle that occurred just behind the frontal boundary. Temperatures have since dropped into in the low-mid 40s and upper 30s (mid-30s in far NW AR and far NE OK) and have held steady early this afternoon. Much colder temperatures are anticipated tonight behind todayâs cold front compared to previous nights. Confidence is high that overnight lows will drop well below freezing across E. Mejia (Saturday through Friday) Unseasonably cool temperatures will continue through the day Saturday (highs generally in the low-mid 40s; upper 30s in far NW AR and far NE OK) and into Saturday night.
749 PM EST Fri Feb 16 2024 A cold front will move through the area late tonight and early Saturday morning, providing a few light showers, followed by cooler conditions.
525 PM CST Fri Feb 16 2024 - Single digit wind chills Saturday morning along and north of the Highway 60 corridor. A cold front has brought a mix of everything today for central Missouri.
Early evening satellite imagery is showing upper level clouds streaming across the Florida Peninsula associated with a broad jet streak, while a southern stream trough digs into the southern Plains and Mexico. This trough is the feature of note this evening, as it is associated with a cold front that will push across the forecast area this weekend.
Looking at water vapor imagery there is a trough/cold front dropping down to our southern border with Utah mainly along our eastern edges with a high pressure ridge building in from the west with the high pressure ridge axis over the Pacific coast. Models consistently show dry, cold air moving in this evening into Saturday as high pressure builds in across the area.
906 PM PST Fri Feb 16 2024 Dry and mild Saturday under a weakening ridge of high pressure.
231 AM CST Sat Feb 17 2024 - Cooler than normal today with highs in the 30s.
1253 AM EST Sat Feb 17 2024 A cold front will move through the area late tonight and early Saturday morning, providing a few light showers, followed by cooler conditions.
1256 AM CST Sat Feb 17 2024 - Single digit wind chills this morning along and north of the Highway 60 corridor.
357 AM EST Sat Feb 17 2024 Low pressure will pass well to our south and east through tonight.
Much colder temperatures today following a cold front passage overnight. The upper trough across the northern tier of the country will continue it's trek off-shore today. Thereafter, once on the backside of the trough, flow aloft becomes zonal, so that westerly low-level flow will begin to choke off the CAA.
Currently - Zonal flow dominates aloft with lower to mid level ridging stretching across the Greater Antilles. Regardless, this flow has brought in a considerable amount of moderation over the past 24 hours and temperatures are now up in the lower to mid 70s with dew points near or slightly below 70. Overall convective forcing will remain limited due to the weak kinematics and some persistent drier air through the lower levels. However, expect some increase in stratocumulus as there is some turning in the lower level flow and dew points should creep upwards a couple of degrees. Lows will broadly be in the lower 70s with a few locations possibly radiating down to near 70. A ridge to our northeast will shift southeastward through the overnight period.
234 AM EST Sat Feb 17 2024 A cold front will move through the area early this morning, followed by cooler conditions.
Coldest areas further north and east will bottom out in the single digits below zero with some of our coldest basins reaching down into the double digits below zero courtesy of clear skies and light winds following Fridays cold front.
327 AM EST Sat Feb 17 2024 An area of low pressure will strengthen off the Mid-Atlantic coast today, with a dry cold front pushing through eastern NC this morning. Low pressure will continue to move through VA this morning, strengthening off the Mid- Atlantic coast today, while attendant cold front pushes through eastern NC this morning and offshore by 15z. High pressure will build in from the west as much cooler and drier air moves into the Carolinas. Cloud cover should limit radiational cooling, but still looks like a cool night with most areas falling below freezing, upper 20s and low 30s. This low will remain well offshore, reaching our latitude Tues night.
1051 PM CST Fri Feb 16 2024 (Tonight through Saturday) A cold front has entered central Alabama this evening. Much cooler northwest as temperatures drop to just below freezing tonight.
1146 PM CST Fri Feb 16 2024 (This afternoon through Saturday night) As of the time of writing this, the Arctic cold front has made it south of the I-10 corridor and continues to slide southwestward. High pressure continues to build over the southern High Plains, with isallobaric and gradient forcings offsetting sensible heating flux somewhat. Winds will continue to veer around to a southeasterly direction Saturday night as high pressure gives way to lee troughing. Saturday will be quite below average for mid February, with highs ranging from around 40 along the eastern slopes of the mountains to the lower 60s along the Rio Grande. Temperatures Friday night will be similar to tonight's lows, with lower 20s to the lower 40s forecast.
1109 PM CST Fri Feb 16 2024 The last signs of showers and the occasional thunderstorm are making their way out of the Mid-South this evening as a cold front exits the area. CAD A strong cold front will continue to push south into north Mississippi this evening. Rain will taper off behind the cold front with a brief period of sleet or snow showers possible over northwest Tennessee.
A cold front will sink south over the Florida peninsula today with scattered showers and cooler temperatures advecting across the area in the wake of the front.
The return of a warm front Saturday afternoon/evening will bring another round of precipitation.
All the lower clouds and flurries that have been around have pushed into the Minnesota arrowhead now, leaving just some cirrus spreading southward out of Manitoba. There is a decent surface pressure gradient all day, between high pressure over Wyoming and a low dropping into Ontario. Normal high temperatures in mid February are in the lower 20s.
/NEW/ /This Weekend/ Yesterday's cold front has made is presence well known since it currently feels 25-30 degrees cooler than last night. Breezy north winds will continue through the pre-dawn and much of the morning, but will slowly decrease in speed this afternoon as high pressure builds into Texas. Temperatures will continue to fall through the pre-dawn, with most of North Texas falling to or below freezing by daybreak. High pressure will build into West Texas late this afternoon and move over North and Central Texas tonight. Tonight will end up being (at least) a couple degrees cooler than this morning. We are forecasting the entire forecast area to fall below freezing, with some rural locations falling into the low 20s and low-lying areas falling into the upper teens.
1143 PM CST Fri Feb 16 2024 (This evening through Saturday night) As expected, conditions this afternoon across the Panhandles remain much cooler than NBM output suggested, with temperatures mired in the 30s and 40s under mostly cloudy skies in the wake of last night's cold frontal passage. While depth of the low level saturated layer may not reach the -12C level, with much of this layer progged to be around -8C, still think majority of hydrometeors will reach the surface as snow rather than freezing drizzle. After a cold Saturday courtesy of our light snow and overcast conditions, temperatures look to fall into the lower 20s under mostly clear skies.
(Today) Big changes on the way this morning as a cold front is pushing through the area. Breezy northerly winds are also advecting in a much cooler air mass as seen by surface temperatures currently in the mid/upper 30s as of 08z.
With this high in place, clearing skies and light winds, it will be another cold night with temperatures falling back into the 20s.
901 PM CST Fri Feb 16 2024 The last signs of showers and the occasional thunderstorm are making their way out of the Mid-South this evening as a cold front exits the area. CAD A strong cold front will continue to push south into north Mississippi this evening. Rain will taper off behind the cold front with a brief period of sleet or snow showers possible over northwest Tennessee.
1100 PM CST Fri Feb 16 2024 Surface observations along with a distinct line on radar shows the cold front extends from near Lufkin, TX northwest to Coushatta, LA and then into southeast Arkansas. Temperatures will continue to drop into the overnight hours with lows reaching around the freezing mark to below freezing for areas along and north of I-30 while the remainder of the area will see the mid to upper 30s. Much cooler temperatures are expected for Saturday and the remainder of the short term discussion found below is still valid. We will bottom out in the upper 20s and lower 30s for our I-30 corridor tonight and slightly warmer mid to upper 30s to around 40 for our interest along and south of I-20.
905 PM CST Fri Feb 16 2024 Surface observations along with a distinct line on radar shows the cold front extends from near Lufkin, TX northwest to Coushatta, LA and then into southeast Arkansas. Temperatures will continue to drop into the overnight hours with lows reaching around the freezing mark to below freezing for areas along and north of I-30 while the remainder of the area will see the mid to upper 30s. Much cooler temperatures are expected for Saturday and the remainder of the short term discussion found below is still valid. We will bottom out in the upper 20s and lower 30s for our I-30 corridor tonight and slightly warmer mid to upper 30s to around 40 for our interest along and south of I-20.
1111 PM CST Fri Feb 16 2024 - Single digit wind chills Saturday morning along and north of the Highway 60 corridor. A cold front has brought a mix of everything today for central Missouri.
1035 PM CST Fri Feb 16 2024 (Tonight through Saturday night) The passing of a weak, mid-level trough axis this morning has led to a slight decrease in cloudcover, especially at lower levels. A strong cold front currently stretches from Denton to Abilene to Big Spring. The lowest temperatures will be in the Hill Country, but only a few spots should drop below 28F, which we generally consider as the threshold for a hard freeze.
647 AM EST Sat Feb 17 2024 A disturbance moving through the Great Lakes will result in a a chance for snow showers early with high pressure nosing into the region this afternoon offering dry but cold conditions. High pressure to influence our weather bringing sunshine with and some moderation to temperatures Sunday. Low pressure responsible for the snow will continue to push off to the east. Chilly temperatures with highs from the mid 20s northwest to the lower 30s southeast. The pressure gradient tightens between this high and a disturbance moving thru the northern Great Lakes. Highs to range from the upper 30s north to the lower and middle 40s south.
515 AM CST Sat Feb 17 2024 (Today) Big changes on the way this morning as a cold front is pushing through the area. Breezy northerly winds are also advecting in a much cooler air mass as seen by surface temperatures currently in the mid/upper 30s as of 08z.
643 AM EST Sat Feb 17 2024 An area of low pressure will strengthen off the Mid-Atlantic coast today, with a dry cold front pushing through eastern NC this morning. Low pressure will continue to move through VA this morning, strengthening off the Mid-Atlantic coast today, while attendant cold front pushes through eastern NC this morning and offshore by 16z. High pressure will build in from the west as much cooler and drier air moves into the Carolinas. Cloud cover should limit radiational cooling, but still looks like a cool night with most areas falling below freezing, upper 20s and low 30s. This low will remain well offshore, reaching our latitude Tues night.
500 AM CST Sat Feb 17 2024 - Cooler than normal today with highs in the 30s.
Much colder temperatures today following a cold front passage overnight. The upper trough across the northern tier of the country will continue it's trek off-shore today. Thereafter, once on the backside of the trough, flow aloft becomes zonal, so that westerly low-level flow will begin to choke off the CAA. For Sunday a moderation of the airmass and temperatures begin and is evident by this shift in the lower and upper levels. Generally elsewhere, expect highs to struggle to break the low 40's in the valley and range from the 20s to 30s higher in elevation.
540 AM CST Sat Feb 17 2024 (Today through Sunday) A cold front is currently bisecting the area this morning, with light rain ahead and behind the front. As we work past sunrise on Sunday, clouds will finish clearing in the southeast as high pressure builds in.
245 AM PST Sat Feb 17 2024 Weak high pressure aloft will bring dry weather today and Sunday. Cool marine air will keep highs in the low 60s near the coast, but highs will reach in the upper 60s in the valleys, and the mid 70s in the lower deserts.
Wind chills will drop to the single digits and teens above zero, and remain below freezing through this afternoon.
A highly amplified trough over eastern North America is allowing a cold polar airmass to surge into our region this morning. Clouds should decrease tonight and allow temperatures to fall to below freezing for nearly all of the area, and lower/mid 20s readings are likely over north central MS.
(Today through Sunday) Upper jet influenced layer lifting along with a cold front moving toward the area are keeping showers over most locations this morning. The cold front will move through this morning cleaning all these showers out by mid morning for at least the northern half of the area. Temps will quickly fall behind this front and freezing temps should be found over the northern third of the area even slipping into the upper 20s for a few areas in southern Miss. Mainly highs in the 50s today and Sunday with Sunday night seeing a few more locations getting to freezing.
A strong cold front has moved across all of South Central Texas early this morning. The proverbial fly in the ointment is some models keep a bit more cloudiness over the area that would keep temperatures a little warmer.
For this reason along with plenty of cloud cover expected, have used the NBM 25th percentile for the highs today bringing temps down 3 to 4 degrees below the NBM. By sunrise H85 temperatures are expected to be just above freezing with temperatures warming through out the day tomorrow reaching a balmy 10 to 11 degrees C. Thanks to a ridge building in and surface winds becoming southwesterly again Sunday afternoon, highs are expected to be back to near normal in the upper 50s after a below normal day today. Tomorrow night's lows will be slightly warmer in the 30s as well.
910 AM EST Sat Feb 17 2024 High pressure will slowly nose into the region this afternoon and the persist through the rest of the weekend. The pressure gradient tightens between this high and a disturbance moving thru the northern Great Lakes. Highs to range from the upper 30s north to the lower and middle 40s south.
In the wake of yesterday's cold front, cold air advection will continue today, resulting in well below normal temperatures across the area. High temperatures will only be in the 40s today, ranging from the lower 40s across the Big Country, to the low to mid 40s elsewhere. A few readings in the lower 20s are possible in some of the more sheltered areas.
606 AM CST Sat Feb 17 2024 - Warmer & Breezier Today High Temperatures Near 30 With Winds Gusting 25 to 35 mph. Chance For Potentially Higher Gusts Late This Evening Before Overnight Surface Cooling - Warming Trend Through New Week, Little To No Precipitation Chances Early Morning Observations & Near Term Impacts: A slightly warmer and breezier day on tap as the upper level trough axis slowly traverses the Upper Mississippi River Valley. This low level warm air advection peaks this afternoon into early evening, providing temperatures in the 30s area wide. All while lowest gust maxima of near 30 mph can be seen in the HRRR from perpetual WAA to the highest maxima near 50 mph in the ARW due to a quick CAA response.
A few showers will also develop over interior areas along an advancing cold front. A cold front stretching from southern MS into central portions of AL as of 4 AM CST will quickly move southward through our forecast area early this morning. Lows tonight should range in the lower to mid 30s across locations roughly along and northwest of I- 65 and in the mid 30s to around 40 degrees across the rest of the region.
Easterly upslope flow against the higher terrain of Southeast New Mexico and Southwest Texas will allow for low clouds to develop adjacent to the higher terrain, expanding eastward across the Trans Pecos and Stockton Plateau through the morning. Highs today, as to be expected, trend cooler in response to the aforementioned cold advection, with highs topping out in the 40s for most of the region, 30s possible in the mountains and across far northern reaches of the forecast area, and 50s to lower 60s confined to the Rio Grande and Presidio Valleys.
/Issued 1153 PM CST Fri Feb 16 2024/ /This Weekend/ Yesterday's cold front has made is presence well known since it currently feels 25-30 degrees cooler than last night. Breezy north winds will continue through the pre-dawn and much of the morning, but will slowly decrease in speed this afternoon as high pressure builds into Texas. Temperatures will continue to fall through the pre-dawn, with most of North Texas falling to or below freezing by daybreak. High pressure will build into West Texas late this afternoon and move over North and Central Texas tonight. Tonight will end up being (at least) a couple degrees cooler than this morning. We are forecasting the entire forecast area to fall below freezing, with some rural locations falling into the low 20s and low-lying areas falling into the upper teens.
(Today through Sunday) A cold front is currently bisecting the area this morning, with light rain ahead and behind the front. As we work past sunrise on Sunday, clouds will finish clearing in the southeast as high pressure builds in.
407 AM EST Sat Feb 17 2024 A disturbance moving through the Great Lakes will result in a a chance for snow showers early with high pressure nosing into the region this afternoon offering dry but cold conditions. High pressure to influence our weather bringing sunshine with and some moderation to temperatures Sunday. Low pressure responsible for the snow will continue to push off to the east. Chilly temperatures with highs from the mid 20s northwest to the lower 30s southeast. The pressure gradient tightens between this high and a disturbance moving thru the northern Great Lakes. Highs to range from the upper 30s north to the lower and middle 40s south.
The combination of high pressure, clear skies and a very dry atmosphere has allowed temperatures to plummet this morning, particularly across western Montana. There is a 20 percent chance for some light freezing rain to develop Sunday morning. High pressure is establishing itself over the Northern Rockies today, ushering in a much drier air-mass. Patchy freezing fog will be possible near bodies of water but should not persist.
PATTERN SYNOPSIS: Broadscale pattern features a meridional ridge over the intermountain west with an axis extending from northern British Columbia to the southwest CONUS, and a deep upper low over northern Hudson Bay, with a trough extending down to the eastern Great Lakes. Numerous weak impulses were moving through this trough, passing through or near northern Michigan on the way.
Cold conditions will prevail across the Midsouth today, as Arctic high pressure settles into the region.
Bonnette Previous Discussion: /This Weekend/ Yesterday's cold front has made is presence well known since it currently feels 25-30 degrees cooler than last night. Breezy north winds will continue through the pre-dawn and much of the morning, but will slowly decrease in speed this afternoon as high pressure builds into Texas. Temperatures will continue to fall through the pre-dawn, with most of North Texas falling to or below freezing by daybreak. High pressure will build into West Texas late this afternoon and move over North and Central Texas tonight. Tonight will end up being (at least) a couple degrees cooler than this morning. We are forecasting the entire forecast area to fall below freezing, with some rural locations falling into the low 20s and low-lying areas falling into the upper teens.
520 AM CST Sat Feb 17 2024 Cold conditions will prevail across the Midsouth today, as Arctic high pressure settles into the region.
The "early-in-the-day" timing with this low means we should see mostly snow, even at lower elevations. where it looks like an inch or two at best on ridgelines. The highest amounts currently in the forecast are 4-6" for the top of the Bear River Range and Sawtooths.