Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
517 PM MDT Wed Jul 10 2024 - Becoming hotter with heat headlines possible through the weekend - Limited precipitation chances, but marginal risk isolated severe thunderstorms later Thursday - Elevated fire weather conditions 20Z analysis shows upper/thermal ridge building toward the forecast area from the west. Downslope flow flow may keep low temperatures noticeably warmer in the northern foothills zones tonight. With southeasterly upslope winds to the east of the trough increasing low level moisture, may see isolated thunderstorms develop along the convergence zone over the Black Hills, with convection initiating as early as 200 PM.
638 PM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024 (This evening through Thursday) As a low pressure moves to the northeast through the Ohio Valley, a trailing area of low level clouds will move across the northeastern half of the area today and this evening. Otherwise, northerly flow will bring drier air to the state with heat indices in the low to mid 90s today and Thursday. A high pressure tries to develop to the west of Alabama and over the lower Mississippi River Valley, but this only continues the northerly flow and dry air advection.
Slightly cooler temperatures will arrive tomorrow and will stick around for the next seven days. - Temperatures will be 5 to 10 degrees cooler tomorrow and will stay cooler for the next seven days. The passage of a dry cold front will keep winds breezy for the Cascade foothills, Waterville Plateau, and Western Columbia Basin through tonight with sustained speeds of 15 to 20 mph and gusts up to 35 mph. In addition to breezy winds, the cold front will bring in very dry air behind it.
814 PM EDT Wed Jul 10 2024 - Rain Ending this evening, scattered storms Thursday - Warming Temperatures into the Weekend with Some Storms Possible - Rain Ending this evening, scattered storms Thursday Dry air is being entrained from the north into the low pressure circulation resulting in an erosion of the steady rain across southwest Lower Michigan this afternoon. There will be a lull in rain chances from tonight into Thursday morning, then scattered showers and thunderstorms pop again by Thursday afternoon as an upper trough follows quickly on the heels of the departing low and steepens lapse rates/increases instability. - Warming Temperatures into the Weekend with Some Storms Possible High pressure slides into the region late in the week as the tropical low moves east of Michigan.
615 PM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024 (Rest of today through Thursday) Dry weather will take hold through Thursday afternoon as upper level troughing develops and surface riding influences continue to persist across mid state region.
Lows tonight will generally range in the low to mid 70s for much of the area.
648 PM EDT Wed Jul 10 2024 Mostly dry conditions with cooling temperatures expected through Thursday under building high pressure.
615 PM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024 (This evening through Thursday) An upper-level ridge was evident on water vapor imagery over the Desert Southwest this afternoon, along with a trough over the north- central US. The forecast area sits between these two features through the short term period, though the ridge should begin to exert more influence tomorrow as it drifts eastward. In the meantime, a piece of energy lagging behind the trough should reach the CWA by this evening, providing subtle forcing. Tomorrow's high temperatures are expected to reach the low to upper 90s-- slightly above average-- as 500mb heights rise through the afternoon and subsidence increases aloft.
(Today) An isolated shower will be possible early this morning across parts of northeast Oklahoma, otherwise another mostly sunny and hot day is on tap, with afternoon high temperatures reaching the low to mid 90s.
(Today through Friday afternoon) Relatively quiet weather persists in the short term with upper level ridging building over the Four Corners. The ridge is still displaced enough to keep temperatures near normal, and consistent with what we've seen the last few days: most spots topping out in the mid to upper 90s both today and Friday afternoons.
Strengthening moist, low-level southerly flow and an inverted mid-level trough axis moving over portions of South and Central Texas will increase chances for showers and storms across our far southern zones Friday afternoon/evening.
445 AM EDT Thu Jul 11 2024 Low pressure and remnant moisture from Beryl will cross the region tonight into Friday.
1204 AM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024 (This evening through Friday) A broad upper level trof across the midsection of the country will gradually move east during the short term as an upper level ridge starts to build in from the west. Temperatures tomorrow will be a bit warmer than today, and with the ridge beginning to build in, the highs on Friday will make it back up into the mid 90's in most areas, aside from the higher elevations. A cold front is expected to stall out across southern MO on Friday, and this may allow a few showers and thunderstorms to drift into northern AR during the afternoon hours.
Aside from some haze from lingering Canadian wildfire smoke in the upper atmosphere, today will be sunny with highs in the low to mid 80s and light winds. Temperatures will drop into the low to mid 60s tonight. A portion of the strong thermal ridge currently over the western CONUS is forecast to advect eastward into the Northern Plains by this weekend, setting the stage for some hot temperatures.
Temperatures continue to warm as high pressure amplifies over the western U. Our low elevations will observe highs in the high 90s to a few degrees over 100 and widespread overnight lows reaching into the upper 60s and warmer.
Slightly cooler temperatures will arrive tomorrow and will stick around for the next seven days.
(Today through Friday) There continues to be a large area of weakness in the subtropical ridge in the short-term, allowing for mid-level pockets of elevated moisture to keep stability limited over much of Texas. On Friday, an H7-H5 inverted trough sharpens over the Rio Grande Valley and drifting NW, while an upper level trough axis holds in place over W/NW TX, extending SW to NE.
By in large the warmer areas will be further inland where rain chances are lowest. Areas that haven't seen precipitation today have generally warmed into the upper 80s to mid 90s, but rainy areas have been in the lower and middle 80s.
(Today through Friday Night) Mid-level ridging will remain in place across the W/SW US through the period while troughing across central parts of the country will slowly push east. At the sfc, ridging will remain in place over the area with a weak frontal boundary situated north of the area.
Coupled with an upper level trough of low pressure and diurnal instability, this has yielded scattered convection across mainly lower Acadiana earlier this afternoon. Remainder of the area has remained mostly sunny and warm, with temperatures topping out in the lower to mid 90s. Seasonal low temperatures in the lower to mid 70s are expected THU morning. Coupled with the lingering upper trof axis overhead and diurnal instability, enhanced chances (40% north to 70% south) of daytime showers and thunderstorms are expected.
Issued 256 AM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024 Today through Friday: An upper level trough will slow rotate east through the region today. Highs today will be in the low 80s, with lows tonight in the 60s. Dry weather is expected Friday, with slightly warmer temperatures in the mid 80s.
The upper ridge shifts eastward with its axis generally along the High Plains.
Smoke should track further east as the upper ridge builds in over the next few days.
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Upper ridge will remain in place in varying degrees for the next several days. The ridge gets flattened somewhat this evening and northeast Montana will be on the periphery of the ridge through weekend. Weak waves moving across the top of the ridge will allow for some high based thunderstorms at times with strong and erratic winds. A weakening cold front comes through NE Montana during the day on Friday with chances for thunderstorms.
A relatively strong mid-level high pressure cell remains centered over NW Arizona today. This will be due to a multitude of reasons, but basically improved steering low, cooler mid-level temperatures and southerly flow.
Overnight, high pressure moves overhead with clearing skies and light winds leading to patchy dense fog by Thursday morning. This warming trend will continue into the weekend as the upper ridge over the western CONUS shifts east, with low level southerly flow sending ample Gulf moisture northward.
However, it will take some time of the lower levels to moisten as dry air remains in place. The highest chances should be after 16Z, but some activity is possible an hour or two before then. Upper cirrus shield coming from the E tonight wrapping between the upper low spinning NE of the Bahamas and narrow ridging from the Mid-Atlantic into the NE Gulf.
1032 PM MDT Wed Jul 10 2024 - Becoming hotter with heat headlines possible through the weekend - Limited precipitation chances, but marginal risk isolated severe thunderstorms later Thursday - Elevated fire weather conditions 20Z analysis shows upper/thermal ridge building toward the forecast area from the west. Downslope flow flow may keep low temperatures noticeably warmer in the northern foothills zones tonight. With southeasterly upslope winds to the east of the trough increasing low level moisture, may see isolated thunderstorms develop along the convergence zone over the Black Hills, with convection initiating as early as 200 PM. For Friday through the weekend, due to the influence of the upper/thermal ridge, high temperatures will approach or exceed 100F degrees in many locations.
1218 AM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024 (This evening through Thursday) An upper-level ridge was evident on water vapor imagery over the Desert Southwest this afternoon, along with a trough over the north- central US. The forecast area sits between these two features through the short term period, though the ridge should begin to exert more influence tomorrow as it drifts eastward. In the meantime, a piece of energy lagging behind the trough should reach the CWA by this evening, providing subtle forcing. Tomorrow's high temperatures are expected to reach the low to upper 90s-- slightly above average-- as 500mb heights rise through the afternoon and subsidence increases aloft.
Only change in weather pattern is an expansion of Nevada-centered ridge eastward across Texas today.
353 AM EDT Thu Jul 11 2024 A few showers linger over portions of Central NY today, before high pressure builds back in for the end of the week and weekend. Cold front has pushed through the region and drier air is advecting in from the west. However, weak troughing will remain and a few showers will be possible, especially across the northern forecast area. Highs today will also be much cooler, only climbing into the upper 70s to low 80s with dew points in the 60s, a very comfortable day. High pressure moves in overnight and will stay overhead on Friday, with temperatures climbing back into the low to mid 80s.
Models also in good agreement with strong mid-level ascent in the trough as seen in the Omega fields at 700 mb and strong mixing off the surface by late afternoon with some models projecting low-end moderate surface based instability for a potential of convection developing.
125 AM MDT Thu Jul 11 2024 - Becoming hotter with heat headlines possible through the weekend - Limited precipitation chances, but marginal risk isolated severe thunderstorms both this afternoon and again Friday afternoon - Elevated fire weather conditions Water vapor shows upper high over the Desert SW with flat ridge through the Pac NW/Northern Rockies and northwest flow across the Northern Plains. At the surface, high covers the eastern Dakotas with advancing lee trof over eastern MT and northern/eastern WY. Hot temperatures will continue to spread into the Plains today as western CONUS ridge nudges east. Highs will reach well into the 90s across all but far south-central SD (and the Black Hills), although lower dewpoints should keep apparent temps a touch cooler. Additional isolated activity is possible tonight given weak wave traversing the upper ridge.
1102 PM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024 (This evening through Friday) A broad upper level trof across the midsection of the country will gradually move east during the short term as an upper level ridge starts to build in from the west. Temperatures tomorrow will be a bit warmer than today, and with the ridge beginning to build in, the highs on Friday will make it back up into the mid 90's in most areas, aside from the higher elevations. A cold front is expected to stall out across southern MO on Friday, and this may allow a few showers and thunderstorms to drift into northern AR during the afternoon hours.
The bottom line is that a 500 hPa anticyclone will move from the Desert Southwest over to the Great Basin during this period. This high pressure center is strong at 597 to 599 dm.
Tonight a coastal trof will be in place offshore the GA/SC coast while high pressure will be situated over south FL and the northeast Gulf of Mexico which will keep our southern tier zones open to westerly flow overnight with some development of pre-dawn showers and isolated storms streaming into the region mainly south I-10 during the pre-dawn hours, mainly south of I-10 into north central FL. With mostly sunny skies, SE GA high temperatures will reach the lower to mid 90s, whereas most of NE FL will stay in the upper 80s to lower 90s.
North of I-10, drier air has filtered in behind the boundary as high pressure builds southward. After a mild overnight period, with lows falling into the low to mid 70s, highs on Thursday will climb into the upper 80s to lower 90s once again.
The large upper level high remains over the area and forecast remains on track for temperatures to be about the same tomorrow as they were today. Strong high pressure continues to dominate the Intermountain West this week. Temperatures have already reached 100-107 degrees so far this afternoon in the western Snake Plain, with 90s for the remainder of the lower elevations, thus far. Boise has broken the high temperature record of 105F for the date, reaching 107F with further warming expected today. However, the ridge is forecast to rebound Friday as it shifts eastward, allowing a long fetch of southerly flow to establish over the West.
Taking a look at mid-level water vapor imagery this morning shows a compact mid-level low situated over eastern Iowa with a trough axis extending southwest into central KS, and a large ridge set up over the Great Basin. This and the mid-level trough axis have helped to fuel scattered elevated storms across the area with these expected to persist over the next several hours. For the remainder of the day, maintained some low-end PoPs across far east-central KS as the trough axis slowly moves east of the area. This should be aided by another push of mid-level vorticity rounding the aforementioned upper low and some low-level isentropic ascent within another nocturnal LLJ. The large mid-level ridge deepens into the weekend as it pushes a bit further east.
(Today) High pressure this morning is centered just to the north and west of northern Alabama. Given this weak upstream flow, we have been seeing the higher dewpoints in place earlier drop slowly.
101 AM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024 Weak sfc ridging remains anchored over the region this evening, extending NE into the TN Valley.
Warm and dry conditions are expected to continue over the next couple of days as high pressure builds across the region.
Meanwhile, an upper level low will meander towards the Florida Space Coast from the western North Atlantic, slinging a spoke of moisture south towards our CWA.
101 AM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024 (Tonight) Mostly clear and calm conditions are prevailing across the Tennessee Valley with high pressure in control. (Thursday through Friday Night) An upper-level trough currently over the Midwestern states, begins to erode and allow for high pressure to settle in.
(Today through Friday night) The main H500 high pressure system over the Great Basin region as of the latest 08Z satellite obs will help to continue our monsoon season over the Panhandles. Rain chances may decrease even further for tomorrow (~10% chance) as the main center of the H500 high pressure system shifts further east over Utah.
An upper-level trough extending from the Great Lakes southward across the midwest will allow for increased instability areawide. With increased mixing due to the prevailing upper-trough aloft, temperatures will again remain seasonably normal with highs in the mid 90s. Surface boundary combined with prevailing upper- trough will allow for slightly higher rain chances mainly south of I-20 on Friday. /05/ (Friday Night through Thursday) Upper-level ridge to gradually build across the region through the weekend gradually eroding the upper-trough.
- Will get progressively warmer today and tomorrow, though dewpoints remain reasonable for this time of year. High temps will be in the low to mid 90s (save for the mountains), but humidity remains relatively low, keeping our "feels like" temperatures reasonable. Temperatures will be even warmer in many locations, reaching into the mid to upper 90s by the afternoon, but it remains relatively dry.
The front drifts back to the west tonight and Friday as low pressure tracks along the boundary.
Upper lvl troughing stretches from the Mississippi Valley through the Ohio Valley and into New England. This weekend, an upper level ridge out west expands eastward with low amplitude troughing to the north.
646 AM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024 Today and Tonight: Our CWA will remain between mid level troughing to the north and mid level ridging to the south.
626 AM EDT Thu Jul 11 2024 Low pressure and remnant moisture from Beryl will cross the region tonight into Friday.
904 AM EDT Thu Jul 11 2024 Low pressure and remnant moisture from Beryl will cross the region tonight into Friday.
339 AM MDT Thu Jul 11 2024 - Warmer again today with scattered showers and thunderstorms over the mountains.
The strong ridge remains in place, currently centered over the southern Great Basin. Accordingly, we'll be even warmer this afternoon than the previous few days, with highs in the upper 90s to low 100s east of the Divide and low to mid 90s west. That's good for around 10 degrees warmer than normal for this time of year. The center of high pressure will very slowly shift eastward, still keeping 700mb temperatures around 18 to 21C.
412 AM MDT Thu Jul 11 2024 - Becoming hotter with heat headlines possible through the weekend - Limited precipitation chances, but marginal risk isolated severe thunderstorms both this afternoon and again Friday afternoon - Elevated fire weather conditions Water vapor shows upper high over the Desert SW with flat ridge through the Pac NW/Northern Rockies and northwest flow across the Northern Plains. At the surface, high covers the eastern Dakotas with advancing lee trof over eastern MT and northern/eastern WY. Hot temperatures will continue to spread into the Plains today as western CONUS ridge nudges east. Highs will reach well into the 90s across all but far south-central SD (and the Black Hills), although lower dewpoints should keep apparent temps a touch cooler. Additional isolated activity is possible tonight given weak wave traversing the upper ridge.
High pressure remains in place over the Great Basin and much of the Southwest for today as it continues to migrate slowly towards the east. As the high pressure system gradually shifts eastward, southerly flow returns allowing an increase in monsoonal moisture advection from the south.
620 AM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024 (Today through Friday) There continues to be a large area of weakness in the subtropical ridge in the short-term, allowing for mid-level pockets of elevated moisture to keep stability limited over much of Texas. On Friday, an H7-H5 inverted trough sharpens over the Rio Grande Valley and drifting NW, while an upper level trough axis holds in place over W/NW TX, extending SW to NE.
Cooler along the coast where occasional low clouds and onshore flow will persist.
420 AM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024 Today and Tonight: Our CWA will remain between mid level troughing to the north and mid level ridging to the south.
546 AM MDT Thu Jul 11 2024 - Warmer again today with scattered showers and thunderstorms over the mountains.
906 AM EDT Thu Jul 11 2024 A few showers linger over portions of Central NY today, before high pressure builds back in for the end of the week and weekend. However, this will be short-lived as the flow turns southwest aloft ahead of an upper level trough moving into the Great lakes. Cold front has pushed through the region and drier air is advecting in from the west. However, weak troughing will remain and a few showers will be possible, especially across the northern forecast area. Highs today will also be much cooler, only climbing into the upper 70s to low 80s with dew points in the 60s, a very comfortable day. High pressure moves in overnight and will stay overhead on Friday, with temperatures climbing back into the low to mid 80s.
This will be due to some energy at 500- 700mb that will make its way around the ridge in the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Otherwise, expect the usual hot and humid ("though somewhat cooler") conditions across the area with high temperatures in the 90s today and tomorrow. Despite this heat indices will still be around 105 both days due to the the higher dew points.
647 AM EDT Thu Jul 11 2024 Drier air will be over the area today with moisture and chances of showers and thunderstorms returning tonight and Friday as an area of low pressure moves across the southeastern US. Drier air will be hanging around through the day as the remains of the surface boundary will be along the coast then moving back westward this evening and tonight as the high pressure offshore strengthens. Aiding to the mix will be an upper level trough pushing into the eastern US however this feature will be weakening through the day. High temperatures this afternoon will be in the low to mid 90s and with the drier air in place heat index values will generally be the same.
Friday, a more southwest low level flow over the Lower Mississippi River Valley and western portions of the Southeast will move moisture more inland. For the forecast area, the moisture pooling along and south of the coast will keep the higher rain chances along and south of the coast. Temperatures top out in the low to mid 90s today. Temperatures tonight are expected to bottom out in the low 70s to mid 70s inland from the coast to mid to upper 70s along the coast.
Low pressure is forecast to form over the Florida peninsula today and shift northward through tonight.
622 AM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024 (Today through Friday night) The main H500 high pressure system over the Great Basin region as of the latest 08Z satellite obs will help to continue our monsoon season over the Panhandles. Rain chances may decrease even further for tomorrow (~10% chance) as the main center of the H500 high pressure system shifts further east over Utah.
415 AM PDT Thu Jul 11 2024 Slightly cooler temperatures will arrive today and will stick around for the next seven days.
657 AM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024 Warm and dry conditions are expected to continue over the next couple of days as high pressure builds across the region.
603 AM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024 (Today through Friday Night) Mid-level ridging will remain in place across the W/SW US through the period while troughing across central parts of the country will slowly push east. At the sfc, ridging will remain in place over the area with a weak frontal boundary situated north of the area.
A few more clouds building up over the higher terrain Friday will signal the arrival of elevated monsoon moisture moving into the area from the south.
529 AM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024 (Today) High pressure this morning is centered just to the north and west of northern Alabama. Given this weak upstream flow, we have been seeing the higher dewpoints in place earlier drop slowly.
205 AM PDT Thu Jul 11 2024 Slightly cooler temperatures will arrive today and will stick around for the next seven days.