Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
As of 2:30 pm, thunderstorms are developing along the higher terrain of eastern New Mexico and will slowly advance towards the forecast area. With relatively cool surface conditions though behind the cold front most of this activity will remain elevated hence hail and heavy rainfall will be the primary threats with this activity. The upper- level trough will continue hanging over the forecast area on Friday although with clearing skies and increasing heights high temperatures will warm into the upper 70s to lower 80s.
Tomorrow, relative high pressure and ridging aloft should take root, promoting mostly clear skies, save for some daytime cumulus clouds.
Temperatures will cool from the mid to upper 70s this afternoon to the lower 60s overnight. (Friday through Thursday) The upper level low will move overhead on Friday as an open wave. By Friday evening the upper level low will be east and lingering precipitation should be on the way out.
A trough of low pressure is seen in GOES Water Vapor imagery this afternoon across British Columbia. As the trough continues to approach and replace the existing ridge of high pressure, the gradient will increase, giving us higher confidence for west-southwest winds of 20-40 mph range, with locally higher gusts in northwest Montana mountain areas through this evening. The aforementioned trough and associated surface cold front will move across the region tonight into Friday. As the atmosphere destabilizes following the trough passage, convective showers, including isolated thunderstorms will develop, increasing the risk of isolated wind gusts in excess of 50 mph.
220 PM MDT Thu May 16 2024 - Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue through this evening, mainly over and near the higher terrain. - Warmer on Friday with highs in the 80s.
1103 AM EDT Thu May 16 2024 Weak high pressure will build over the region today and tonight.
Very seasonably typical deep marine layer pattern this week and likely at least through the weekend as a weak troughing pattern continues to promote strong onshore flow.
1249 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024 (Today and tonight) A mid/upper level trough over the Four Corners early this morning will move eastward across New Mexico today and across the Panhandle- South Plains region tonight, becoming more positively-tilted as it does so. No surface focus is expected to concentrate convection in any particular area as a cold front will have shifted to the south of the forecast area by that time.
145 PM EDT Thu May 16 2024 Weak high pressure will build over the region today and tonight.
128 PM EDT Thu May 16 2024 Dry conditions and seasonable temperatures expected today as high pressure transitions across the region. The rest of the day will be characterized by generally dry weather, a mix of scattered to broken cumulus, and temperature rising to around 5 degrees above normal as an upper level ridge passes. The other item of note is a slight increase potential for low probability showers and thunderstorms this afternoon along the higher terrain. Hi-res models suggest there may be enough destabilization with heating plus weak terrain convergence to promote the necessary lift under the ridge axis for such development. ______________________________________________________________ A weak trough is progged to push across Michigan and SW Ontario on Friday, giving a glancing blow to the forecast area. KEY MESSAGES: - An upper trough will maintain unsettled weather through the weekend.
Warmer and drier weather looks to return Friday through the weekend, with winds gradually increasing each afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms have already begun to develop mainly over the higher terrain to the east of a Crown King to Happy Jack to Ganado line. Coverage should continue to increase over the higher terrain of central and eastern Arizona through the afternoon, then moving north to south off the terrain. Additionally, with dry air in the lower levels, the main threats from any storm should be just gusty, erratic outflow winds and lightning.
Partly to locally mostly cloudy skies across southeast Arizona this afternoon as a circulation on the backside of a broader mid/upper low is moving through the forecast area from northwest to southeast.
807 PM EDT Thu May 16 2024 Quiet overnight as high pressure drifts offshore. As the low exits the Carolina coast Sun, a cold front will push offshore bringing below normal temperatures Mon and Tue. Pretty quiet for most of the period with WV imagery showing considerable dry air filtering in behind yesterday's severe weather- causing upper lows. Warm front will lift north of the area Friday night.
559 PM MDT Thu May 16 2024 - Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue through this evening, mainly over and near the higher terrain. - Warmer on Friday with highs in the 80s.
Any impacts to visibility will improve during the morning as heating sets in, following another humid night for areas south of I-4 with lows in the 70s, with areas northward likely a few degrees cooler in the mid-upper 60s.
Temperatures will slowly fall into the lower 60s by morning.
- Cooler temperatures are expected over the weekend. WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: A strong jet stream from the Pacific Ocean up and over the Rocky Mountains and their associated scattered showers today through tonight, will become enhanced by a low pressure system dropping out of the Canadian Rockies on Friday.
a lead vort max to the parent low pressure system. Will continue to carry slight to low end chance showers/storms for much of the CWA overnight as the upper low continues to approach the region. The greater potential overnight will be the development of patchy/areas of fog across the CWA with light winds and all the low level moisture already in place. though shower/storm chances increase with the low pressure system moving into the region. (Friday through Thursday) The upper level low will move overhead on Friday as an open wave. By Friday evening the upper level low will be east and lingering precipitation should be on the way out.
Currently - A deep layered trough centered off the New England coast extends a trough southwestward into the southeastern United States. This has pushed southward across Cuba an Atlantic ridge. The lower level ridge is also aligned across Cuba and close enough to the Keys to provide quite a bit of drier air through the lower levels. Expect overnight lows in the lower 80s with dew points remaining in the mid 70s. The Keys are situated in a region of slack pressure gradient with a weak Atlantic pressure ridge to our south across Cuba.
807 PM EDT Thu May 16 2024 Upper ridging will keep conditions dry through tonight.
High clouds are moving in over W TN as an upper trough continues to push E. Rain and storm chances will return tonight as upper ridging moves east and is replaced with southwesterly flow. There should be a break in the showers and storms in the morning with a chance of more showers of storms in the afternoon and into the overnight hours as a broad trough moves toward the area.
518 PM MDT Thu May 16 2024 - Warmer and breezy conditions expected through the weekend.
822 PM MDT Thu May 16 2024 - Much warmer and drier Friday.
505 PM MDT Thu May 16 2024 - Much warmer and drier Friday.
1004 PM EDT Thu May 16 2024 Upper ridging will keep conditions dry through tonight.
Highs on Sat will be warmer in the mid 70s to mid 80s due to less clouds and precip.
1047 PM MDT Thu May 16 2024 - Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue through this evening, mainly over and near the higher terrain. - Warmer on Friday with highs in the 80s.
Warmer and drier weather will return to northern Arizona Friday through the weekend, with winds gradually increasing each afternoon. Overnight low temperatures will be just a couple of degrees warmer than last night. Showers and thunderstorms have already begun to develop mainly over the higher terrain to the east of a Crown King to Happy Jack to Ganado line. Coverage should continue to increase over the higher terrain of central and eastern Arizona through the afternoon, then moving north to south off the terrain. Additionally, with dry air in the lower levels, the main threats from any storm should be just gusty, erratic outflow winds and lightning.
Deepest moisture remains just offshore where dew points are in the mid and upper 70s, but drier air is over the northern portion of the area, where dew points are in the lower 60s.
226 AM MDT Fri May 17 2024 - Cold front this evening with gusty northwest winds. Current surface map places low across southern Saskatchewan with weak trough extending into central South Dakota. Low level thermal ridge peaks this afternoon with breezy south-southwest winds with highs reaching the 80s across the plains of western South Dakota. Better chance of thunderstorms comes across northwestern South Dakota late this afternoon/evening with increasing mid level forcing and cold frontal passage. The cold front arrives in northeastern Wyoming and northwestern South Dakota late this afternoon and moves through the rest of western South Dakota this evening. Dry, cooler, and breezy conditions expected Saturday.
Abundant moisture on the south side of this front will lead to scattered showers and storms on Saturday with the highest chances over the Nature Coast.
Highs in the 80s will likely be limited to parts of northwest IA on Saturday with the incoming cold front.
212 AM EDT Fri May 17 2024 Dry weather returns to the region through today as high pressure builds in. A 1016 hPa sfc anticyclone continue to build in over New England. As the coastal low continues to pull away into the North Atlantic, brief weak ridging builds into the region, bringing a period of dry weather beneath partly cloudy skies through the day on Friday.
339 AM EDT Fri May 17 2024 Clouds increase today as another area of low pressure approaches from the west. The 500 mb trough really flattens as it moves through Saturday but will still provide enough lift to generate showers though coverage will be decreasing. The rain and clouds will limit heating and with the trough axis swinging through in the late morning and early afternoon, an increase in shower activity is not anticipated Saturday afternoon as there will not be enough destabilization.
a lead vort max to the parent low pressure system. Will continue to carry slight to low end chance showers/storms for much of the CWA overnight as the upper low continues to approach the region. The greater potential overnight will be the development of patchy/areas of fog across the CWA with light winds and all the low level moisture already in place. though shower/storm chances increase with the low pressure system moving into the region.
1115 PM MDT Thu May 16 2024 - Warmer and breezy conditions expected through the weekend.
KEY MESSAGES: - Showers return with the passage of a weak upper trough. _______________________________________________ Upper troughing still transitioning across the region will maintain shower chances on Saturday.
Saturday thunderstorms: Saturday, upper low looks to advance from North Dakota to Montana with an associated weak surface front progged to sweep eastward through Minnesota with a narrow axis of moisture advecting northeastward ahead of this feature.
1224 AM MDT Fri May 17 2024 - Much warmer and drier Friday.
1052 PM MDT Thu May 16 2024 - Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue through this evening, mainly over and near the higher terrain. - Warmer on Friday with highs in the 80s.
The widespread cloud cover will help keep temperatures several degrees cooler this afternoon.
A cold front will arrive today. Temperatures on Saturday will range from the mid 60s across the upper Snake Plain to the low 70s in the Magic Valleys, with 50s and low 60s common for most of the communities in the mountains and highlands.
Temperatures will peak today followed by a slight decreasing trend accompanied by gusty afternoon winds each day through the weekend as a trough gradually digs from the Pacific Northwest.
354 AM CDT Fri May 17 2024 * A dry forecast is expected through Saturday afternoon with temperatures rising into the mid to upper 80s this afternoon, slightly cooler on Saturday in the 70s.
1146 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024 (This evening through Saturday) A trof over the southern Plains, extending into northern Mexico, was advancing eastward and ejecting several minor waves over the southern US. At the surface, the warmest and most humid air was bottled up south of a warm front along the Gulf coast, and a diffuse cold front stretched from the Great Lakes region, into southern MO, and down into Texas. The upper trof will continue to push eastward, bringing additional chances for showers and thunderstorms to the area tonight thru tomorrow. The weak cold front will largely wash out, although residual while the warm front to the south never makes it into the state.
(Today and tonight) 06Z upper air analysis depicts a dampened, positively-tilted trough pivoting over the southern Rocky Mountains and into the southern Great Plains, with a well-defined vorticity lobe rotating about its base over northern Sonora. Geopotential heights will gradually rise throughout the remainder of the period as the backside of the slow-moving trough progresses into West Texas, and the corresponding NVA associated with the northerly flow aloft will result in a clearing sky less the redevelopment of a boundary-layer cu field in the Rolling Plains this afternoon.
Late day thunderstorms with cold front could bring some locally strong wind gusts. Water vapor shows upper low over southern BC with flat ridge extending from the Pac NW through the Northern Plains. At the surface, weak trof covers the western Dakotas. Low level thermal ridge peaks on Friday for very warm temps, close to 90 in some areas east of the Black Hills. More significant short wave crosses the Northern Rockies in the afternoon and Northern Plains overnight, driving a Pacific cold front through the area. Drier/cooler/breezy conditions expected Saturday in wake of Friday night's cold front.
Isolated shower and thunderstorm activity can be expected again today over the eastern Arizona high country, which could cause some erratic gusty winds reaching the lower deserts of south-central Arizona. Highs both days will reach the upper 90s to triple digits across the lower deserts, resulting in areas of Moderate HeatRisk.
Positively tilted upper trough will make slow eastward progress over the region today and tonight and should result in redevelopment of scattered showers with a few non-severe thunderstorms. Most if not all of the rain activity today should be confined to areas east of the upper trough axis, generally east of a line from Quanah/Altus, to OKC and Stillwater.
Current water vapor imagery shows that there is an upper level trough north of the Mid-Mississippi River Valley that is helping keep the region in southwesterly flow aloft. Temperatures on Friday will be in the 70s, with the highest temperatures across the northern portions of the CWA where cloud cover will be limited. MMG/Glass An upper level trough will be exiting to the east through the day on Saturday with ridging and height rises building in behind it.
Surface outflow boundary/effective cold front has moved just south of our area, then extended back to the northwest to near the southeastern corner of New Mexico. With the gradual approach of an upper trough from New Mexico, chances for additional showers and thunderstorms continue for our area through tonight.
An upper trough will cross overhead today keeping mid level heights and temperatures lower even with a weak downslope component to the flow. A weak disturbance will round the base of the upper trough helping to generate a few showers and storms along and south of the I-10 corridor. Mid level ridging quickly builds over the area Saturday as surface winds become more westerly. And Saturday is the "cooler" day of the weekend.
Once these showers fully dissipate, drier conditions are expected to mover in as models see a ridge build in behind the system yesterday and hold clear through the weekend. However, confidence in this is not too high as many of those same model do not expect the low-level cap needed to trap said moisture to be present, which make sense since we are still unstable enough for showers to continue. Meanwhile, Saturday takes it even further with much of the Panhandles reaching the low 90s for the afternoon high temperatures, As for our notorious hot spot that is the Palo Duro Canyon, the lack of winds expected Saturday could easily see the canyon floor heat up into the mid to upper 90s for the day.
141 AM EDT Fri May 17 2024 Dry weather returns to the region through today as high pressure builds in. A 1016 hPa sfc anticyclone continue to build in over New England. As the coastal low continues to pull away into the North Atlantic, brief weak ridging builds into the region, bringing a period of dry weather beneath partly cloudy skies through the day on Friday.
***UPDATE*** Today was yet another May Gray day, with overnight/morning marine layer clouds extending inland over the valleys to the lower mountain slopes. A decrease in the onshore pressure gradients resulted in better clearing today, thus high temperatures were around 1 to 3 degrees warmer than yesterday everywhere. Highs for these areas are expected to be around 2 to 4 degrees warmer than today. However, with a cooling airmass aloft, the majority of other areas will see highs 2 to 5 degrees cooler than today. ***From Previous Discussion*** Very seasonably typical deep marine layer pattern this week and likely at least through the weekend as a weak troughing pattern continues to promote strong onshore flow.
(Today through Saturday) An upper level trough axis stretches from northwest Texas into northeast Sonora Mexico. A weak impulse in the southwest flow aloft is seen on satellite upstream of our region, across interior Mexico, and isolated convection has been noted in the higher terrain of Mexico. Weak upper level ridging is forecast to build over the area on Saturday, producing dry, mostly sunny, and much warmer temperatures. High temperatures on Saturday are forecast in the the low to mid 90s across the Hill Country and along and east of I-35 and I-37, in the upper 90s along the U.
925mb temperatures support high temperatures in the middle 70s to lower 80s this afternoon, but of course much cooler near the lake. An upper trough moving across Upper Michigan could produce scattered thunderstorms this afternoon and early evening in northcentral Wisconsin. There is a chance of thunderstorms in central and northcentral WIsconsin in the afternoon ahead of a weak cold front.
Mostly sunny and dry conditions persist with periodically breezy winds Isolated shower or thunderstorm chances over the High Sierra south of Interstate 80 Saturday afternoon.
Warmer and drier weather will return to northern Arizona Friday through the weekend, with winds gradually increasing each afternoon. Clear skies were being observed across Arizona in the early morning hours as a weak high pressure system began to move in from the west. For today look for a bit warmer daytime temperatures and afternoon west to southwest breezes at a pretty typical 10 to 20 mph.
404 AM MDT Fri May 17 2024 - Much warmer and drier today.
Temperature will be cooler today, though still above normal. A dry cold front will drop in over northwesterly Humboldt county early this morning, then progress southeasterly across the CWA today. Afternoon highs will be a few degrees cooler today, but still above normal for this time of year.
Additionally, the main trough nearing the region will enhance upper-level diffluence, aided by a 105 - 110 kt upper jet sinking southward. As this upper-level disturbance moves east, ridging will build in behind, allowing for dominant quasi zonal flow and the return of warm and dry conditions for the weekend.
Issued 413 AM CDT Fri May 17 2024 Today through Saturday: High pressure settled in overnight. With dewpoints in the lower to mid 50s and temps dropping to those values, along with clear skies and calm winds, patchy fog is developing. High pressure, plenty of sunshine, and light winds will allow for a lake breeze to develop early today, but the light flow should prevent it from making it too far inland until dusk. The dry air in place should also allow for dewpoints to drop toward the lower end of guidance, in the upper 40s for inland areas. Saturday will be our warmest day of the weekend with highs in the lower-mid 80s inland.
A bit cooler on Saturday though dry weather continues.
529 AM MDT Fri May 17 2024 - Much warmer and drier today.
Along the coast, stratus coverage will linger through the late morning/early afternoon with temperatures staying on the cooler side in the upper 50's to low 60's.
652 AM CDT Fri May 17 2024 * A dry forecast is expected through Saturday afternoon with temperatures rising into the mid to upper 80s this afternoon, slightly cooler on Saturday in the 70s.
Widespread rains have developed this early morning across western Montana and the Idaho panhandle ahead and along the first cold frontal push. A large baggy trough will settle over the western U.
Today, a mid-level ridge over the southeastern Gulf will start to build over the Florida Peninsula, which will help stabilize the environment and keep conditions generally drier, but there will remain chances for a few showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon along sea breeze boundaries. On Saturday, the mid-level ridge will remain over South Florida, while a trough pushes into the northern Gulf states and Southeast US. High temperatures today will peak in the low to mid 90s for most locations, with heat index values ranging from 103 to 107. On Saturday, high temperatures will be a few degrees warmer, reaching the mid to upper 90s across South Florida, with heat index values up to 110 possible.
Onshore flow will result in cooler afternoon temperatures for interior locations this afternoon.
638 AM CDT Fri May 17 2024 (Today through Saturday) An upper level trough axis stretches from northwest Texas into northeast Sonora Mexico. A weak impulse in the southwest flow aloft is seen on satellite upstream of our region, across interior Mexico, and isolated convection has been noted in the higher terrain of Mexico. Weak upper level ridging is forecast to build over the area on Saturday, producing dry, mostly sunny, and much warmer temperatures. High temperatures on Saturday are forecast in the the low to mid 90s across the Hill Country and along and east of I-35 and I-37, in the upper 90s along the U.
A trough dipping over the Pacific northwest has kicked of a cooling trend with interior temperatures most likely struggling to reach 80 today. The trough over the Pacific Northwest will continue to deepen through the weekend, allowing for interior tempertures to drop below average.
440 AM MDT Fri May 17 2024 - Cold front this evening with gusty northwest winds. Current surface map places low across southern Saskatchewan with weak trough extending into central South Dakota. Low level thermal ridge peaks this afternoon with breezy south-southwest winds with highs reaching the 80s across the plains of western South Dakota. Better chance of thunderstorms comes across northwestern South Dakota late this afternoon/evening with increasing mid level forcing and cold frontal passage. The cold front arrives in northeastern Wyoming and northwestern South Dakota late this afternoon and moves through the rest of western South Dakota this evening. Dry, cooler, and breezy conditions expected Saturday.
In the wake of last night's storms, a warm frontal type feature is focusing moisture convergence and lift this morning. /NF/ Today and Tonight: A positively-tilted trough remains stretched from west to north of our forecast area early this morning, but it is on the move today. Despite the MCS that blew east along the Gulf Coast overnight, continued southwesterly flow aloft associated with the trough should help some with moisture recovery into the daytime today.