Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Rain is forecast today and tonight along with a cold front.
- Warmer on Sunday. Dew point advection today has helped temperatures warm in to the low 30s central and north and into the mid 30s far south. Most locations have reached 32 degrees though the wetbulb temperatures and road temperatures have warmed slightly above these values thanks to the low amount of solar radiation that is getting through the cloud cover. The biggest uncertainty going into this evening is if temperatures will drop a degree or two and drop below freezing again while ongoing light precipitation or drizzle is still falling which could bring renewed icing on untreated surfaces. Any precipitation by this evening should be quite light in locations at or below freezing which would limit impacts. Warm advection will continue into Sunday which will boost temperatures above freezing.
1035 AM CST Sat Dec 14 2024 - Freezing rain will bring slick roads and surfaces to areas near and west of the Illinois River late tonight through the morning.
246 PM CST Sat Dec 14 2024 - Patchy light mixed precipitation will remain possible into the afternoon, especially near and eastof the Buffalo Ridge, but any additional accumulations will be minor. This may bring some light precipitation to the area as well as help scour out the low clouds and fog.
Winds aloft will continue increasing as the trough passes by, reaching 35-50 kts at the 700 mb level (around 10,000 ft msl) this evening through around 5 AM Sunday. High pressure will dominate the weather pattern delivering above seasonal average daytime temperatures, chilly overnight lows with a dry air mass in place, and periods of mainly high clouds.
1238 PM CST Sat Dec 14 2024 DGX radar has a few isolated showers west of the MS River and in the Delta region as an upper-lvl trough pushes a cold front towards the ArkLaMiss region. The associated cold front will track east towards the ArkLaMiss area later today, and will stall out to our northwest. Showers will continue across our CWA later tonight as the embedded closed low pushes off to the east towards the Ohio Valley Region.
Later on Sat evng, near 15/00Z, covg of precip wl be tapering off fm W to E as the main driving sfc and upper low advance N/Ewrd. Aloft, a broader, longwave H500 trof wl be moving acrs the Nrn Cntrl Plains, w/ weak diffluent flow overspreading the Cntrl US. Temps thru the PD wl stay warm, generally warmer than nrml at most locations, e.
The exception will be the higher elevations (above 1500 ft) where short-lived gusts of 35-40 mph are possible.
352 PM EST Sat Dec 14 2024 High pressure building across the Northeast will provide dry and cool conditions over the weekend. Key Messages: - Dry and clear tonight with below normal temperatures Strong high pressure over the region along with a clear sky and light winds will provide ideal radiational cooling conditions.
1147 AM CST Sat Dec 14 2024 - Freezing rain will bring slick roads and surfaces to areas near and west of the Illinois River late tonight through the morning.
DGX radar has a few isolated showers west of the MS River and in the Delta region as an upper-lvl trough pushes a cold front towards the ArkLaMiss region. The associated cold front will track east towards the ArkLaMiss area later today, and will stall out to our northwest. Showers will continue across our CWA later tonight as the embedded closed low pushes off to the east towards the Ohio Valley Region.
333 PM EST Sat Dec 14 2024 Low pressure over the Central Plains to lift across the Middle Mississippi Valley tonight before tracking across the Great Lakes Sunday.
As the deep trough and low pressure system continues to move eastward out of Kansas, a subtle ridge is forecasted by LREF ensembles to take its place to the north of the forecast area. On Sunday, models continue to depict a weak low-level trough moving off the lee side of the Rockies and into the forecast area. The low will shift winds and pull some scattered cloud cover into the forecast area, but ensemble POPs continue to be at virtually 0% through Sunday and beyond.
125 PM MST Sat Dec 14 2024 - Patchy freezing fog possible late tonight and early Sunday morning from Norton County in northwest Kansas to Red Willow County in southwest Nebraska. Upper ridge axis is moving across the area today allowing temperatures to warm into the 50s. Main concern tonight is whether the low clouds and freezing fog will return to those far eastern areas. In the afternoon will see some marginally breezy northwest winds as winds attempt to mix down behind the trough axis, but only seeing gusts in the 20-25kt range for a few hours in northwest half of the area.
As a trough axis propagates through the Great Plains, upper-level riding remains situated across the Florida peninsula. The associated mid-latitude cyclone is occluding, and the trough is negatively tilting in response. Given the relatively shallow amplitude of this trough already, the upper-level ridge over the FL peninsula is definitely the stronger feature. Thus, the trough is expected to lift north, only serving to reinforce the pattern in place already. While sunny spots will definitely have a good chance of reaching 80 degrees, clouds and any rain may keep many locations in the low-to-mid 70s instead. By the middle of the work week, some change is anticipated as the upper-level pattern amplifies and a longwave trough axis propagates across the eastern half of the CONUS, dragging an attendant cold front with it.
1101 AM CST Sat Dec 14 2024 (Rest of Today) Cloud cover continues to spread into the area out of the WSW, as a weak upper ridge axis moves east of the mid TN Valley, while an upper low/trough pattern rotates eastward thru the mid Plains. The exiting ridge axis coupled with the developing return flow pattern will also help afternoon highs climb mainly into the mid/upper 50s for most spots.
Temperatures are also fairly mild this morning with values generally in the lower to mid 70s and dewpoints (unfortunately) in the mid to upper 60s. High pressure along the Eastern Seaboard continues to drive our sensible weather with breezy winds out of the northeast. From synopsis, fresh to strong northeast to east winds will continue across the Florida Keys coastal waters through the weekend, as a large area of high pressure moves slowly eastward across the Eastern Seaboard. The high will shift into the western North Atlantic during the work week, resulting in slackening breezes.
1126 AM CST Sat Dec 14 2024 (Today through Sunday) Low-level ridging will maintain some of its influence over the area as an upper trough skirts by to our north. Wedge flow will promote cooler temperatures across northeast Alabama with warmer temperatures across southwest Alabama for Saturday and Sunday.
(This evening through Sunday) A small but decently strong upper low is currently ejecting out of the Central Plains and into the lower Midwest with the trough axis pushing into the Lower Mississippi River Valley. A secondary upper trough, currently over Central California, will push north and east into the Central Rockies over the next 24 hours, leaving our area in weak southwest flow aloft by the end of the period. The weak cold front extending southwest from the Central Plains system has pushed through the area, bringing light west/northwest winds behind it. This should advect even warmer air into the region with highs expected to be well above average in the low to mid 70s areawide.
700 PM EST Sat Dec 14 2024 Low pressure over the Central Plains to lift across the Middle Mississippi Valley tonight before tracking across the Great Lakes Sunday.
330 PM MST Sat Dec 14 2024 - Chances for rain, freezing rain, and snow increase tonight into Sunday.
954 PM EST Sat Dec 14 2024 Low pressure over the middle Mississippi Valley will track northeast into the the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley on Sunday.
An upper low over the plains will left northeast into the Great Lakes region through Sunday. Above normal temps will continue with lows tonight in the low to mid 50s inland to upper 50s along the coast.
(Tonight) A fast-moving trough will shift from the mid Mississippi Valley into the Great Lakes tonight into Sunday morning, with a slower moving frontal boundary working its way into the region. Due to the tightening pressure gradient, some gusty winds will be possible overnight -- with maximum gusts occurring along the higher terrain in the 20-30 MPH.
Behind this area of light rain, some breaks in the cloud cover have emerged across NE TX, SE OK, and adjacent parts of SW AR as a weak cold front has managed to nudge slightly farther into Middle Red River Valley. However, this is expected to be short-lived as the cold front will stall out and eventually wash out later tonight.
536 PM CST Sat Dec 14 2024 - Patchy light mixed precipitation will remain possible into the afternoon, especially near and east of the Buffalo Ridge, but any additional accumulations will be minor. This may bring some light precipitation to the area as well as help scour out the low clouds and fog.
438 PM MST Sat Dec 14 2024 - Chances for rain, freezing rain, and snow increase tonight into Sunday.
621 PM MST Sat Dec 14 2024 - Chances for rain, freezing rain, and snow increase tonight into Sunday.
518 PM CST Sat Dec 14 2024 Rain is forecast today and tonight along with a cold front.
609 PM EST Sat Dec 14 2024 High pressure building across the Northeast will provide dry and cool conditions over the weekend. As of 605 PM EST, high pressure currently over the region will slowly shift eastward overnight. Ideal radiational cooling conditions will result in temperatures falling to similar values as last night, in the single digits and teens with some below zero readings in the higher elevations, especially the Adirondacks.
647 PM MST Sat Dec 14 2024 - Patchy freezing fog possible late tonight and early Sunday morning from Norton County in northwest Kansas to Red Willow County in southwest Nebraska. Upper ridge axis is moving across the area today allowing temperatures to warm into the 50s. Main concern tonight is whether the low clouds and freezing fog will return to those far eastern areas. In the afternoon will see some marginally breezy northwest winds as winds attempt to mix down behind the trough axis, but only seeing gusts in the 20-25kt range for a few hours in northwest half of the area.
327 PM MST Sat Dec 14 2024 - Patchy freezing fog possible late tonight and early Sunday morning from Norton County in northwest Kansas to Red Willow County in southwest Nebraska. Upper ridge axis is moving across the area today allowing temperatures to warm into the 50s. Main concern tonight is whether the low clouds and freezing fog will return to those far eastern areas. In the afternoon will see some marginally breezy northwest winds as winds attempt to mix down behind the trough axis, but only seeing gusts in the 20-25kt range for a few hours in northwest half of the area.
An additional 6 to 12 inches is expected above 5000 feet in the Sierra, with 18 to 24 inches possible along the highest peaks.
The associated upper low will move from MO through IL overnight.
Not only snow, but wind is also heading our way as the cold front sweeps through the area tonight.
(Today) An upper low was moving into northern IL with a negatively tilted trough axis swinging through the lower OH and TN valleys. Showers that have been advancing east of I-65 have tended to dissipate some due to an impressive wedge of drier air in low to mid levels resulting from surface-8h ridging east of the Appalachians.
This nearly stacked low had a cold front draped south across the ArkLaTex. This will essentially strand the cold front to our northwest and limit any further spread to the southeast of the light showers in our CWA.
1039 PM CST Sat Dec 14 2024 - Patchy light mixed precipitation will remain possible into the afternoon, especially near and east of the Buffalo Ridge, but any additional accumulations will be minor. This may bring some light precipitation to the area as well as help scour out the low clouds and fog.
Finally, elevated seas along the Lower Texas Coast will result in a High Risk of rip currents at the local beaches for the end of the weekend and into the start of the new work week.
Temperatures have also been raised overnight, with the wedge not quite bringing in the cooler air as much as previously indicated. Eventually, the cooler air should still filter in from Georgia across the eastern and northeastern counties with lows in the upper 40s still anticipated. Upper level ridging will commence on Monday, as the easterly wedge finally erodes and southerly surface flow returns. The cold front will begin to approach our northwest counties by Monday evening.
1005 PM CST Sat Dec 14 2024 (Tonight) A fast-moving trough will shift from the mid Mississippi Valley into the Great Lakes tonight into Sunday morning, with a slower moving frontal boundary working its way into the region. Due to the tightening pressure gradient, some gusty winds will be possible overnight -- with maximum gusts occurring along the higher terrain in the 20-30 MPH.
Low temperatures overnight are forecast to be near average for this time of year, a few degrees warmer compared to last night given the slight increase in surface moisture and continued light breezes. Another mild and dry day is expected on Sunday with winds switching to the north-northeast as stable, high pressure builds in from the west.
Highs today will be warmer than in previous days, getting into the mid 40s to mid 50s. Tonight will be the warmest night of the week with the lows getting down into the low-to-mid 40s. Thankfully, the temperatures stay above freezing, so all the precipitation that falls should be rain.
An upper level low with an associated cold front will be approaching to our north; this will allow for moisture advection causing our cloudy skies today. Yet the high pressure will block the cold front from affecting our region so, we will remain dry for the time being. The highs for today will be in the upper 60s in our northern tier of GA counties to the mid-upper 70s in Florida and the SE Big Bend. Lows tonight will range in the low to mid 50s.
320 AM EST Sun Dec 15 2024 Strong high pressure across New England will slowly weaken as it gradually shifts offshore allowing for a warming trend into mid week.
A weak front/trof axis will move across the state today. This will favor a series of weak frontal passages and sfc trof fragmentation.
These showers are the combination of speed convergence between a faster northeast wind brushing up against a slower north to northeast flow off the relatively cooler waters north of the island chain. Temperatures are similar to last night with a few locations about a degree or so warmer but generally centered around 70 degrees. Looking upstream at the KAMX radar, we can see swaths of showers still pushing in from the northeast and there is better moisture in the low levels this evening. Fresh to occasional strong northeast to east winds will continue across the Florida Keys coastal waters through the weekend, as a large area of high pressure moves slowly eastward across the Eastern Seaboard. The high will shift into the western North Atlantic during the work week, resulting in slackening breezes.
The low will track northeast and weaken during the period, with low amplitude short wave ridging building over our area tonight in its wake. A 40+kt 850 mb jet from the south and southeast out ahead of the low pressure system is bringing increased moisture and we are seeing some mainly light rain across the area. The low level jet is also is producing some gusty winds aided by mountain wave enhancement to the normal higher elevations and foothills of the E TN mountains. In addition to the rain, a few spots over the highest elevations of the mountains near the TN/NC border in Carter and Johnson Counties may see some light freezing rain late tonight into the morning. However, if it does occur the coverage area should be very small and mainly confined to the highest peaks.
As the deep trough and low pressure system continues to move eastward out of Kansas, a subtle ridge is forecasted by LREF ensembles to take its place to the north of the forecast area. On Sunday, models continue to depict a weak low-level trough moving off the lee side of the Rockies and into the forecast area. The low will shift winds and pull some scattered cloud cover into the forecast area, but ensemble POPs continue to be at virtually 0% through Sunday and beyond. Into Monday, north winds from the weak trough will cool temperatures somewhat bringing them closer to normal values for mid-december across SW Kansas.
Satellite image suggest most ofthe energy and showers will remain north of the forecast area which is in line with several of the high res guidance.
The area with the highest likelihood is coastal and southeast Texas and coastal and southwest Louisiana, where moisture has been filtering in off the Gulf very efficiently. Temperatures this afternoon are in the low to mid 70s, some 10F degrees above climo norms. By Sunday, the short wave will have moved off to the east, replaced by some ridging aloft.
Behind this area of light rain, some breaks in the cloud cover have emerged across NE TX, SE OK, and adjacent parts of SW AR as a weak cold front has managed to nudge slightly farther into Middle Red River Valley. However, this is expected to be short-lived as the cold front will stall out and eventually wash out later tonight. After a brief lull in convective activity, expect renewed convection along and north of the I-30 corridor as the next upper-level trough and cold front shift SE through the Southern Plains and toward our region by Monday morning.
There is better agreement with the majority of GEFS and ECMWF ensemble members this morning with regards to a broad ridge establishing itself across the Desert Southwest this week. The GEFS members are a little more bullish with a more amplified ridge developing the second half of the work week.
However, by late tonight and early tomorrow, the second weak trough and cold front will begin to shift SE through the Plains, increasing rain chances once again in our NW zones. /44/ (Monday Night through Sunday) This second cold front will push into the region into Monday night, before also stalling just like the first one.
(Today through Monday) A short wave trough over IL is gradually lifting. An upper level trough will track out of the Rockies into the Great Lakes on Monday. A cold front will approach the area Monday evening with periods of rain continuing ahead of the front. The cold front will stall out over the region as the trough lifts into Canada. Highs Monday will push into the low to mid 60s.
Area temperatures have warmed above freezing as of 3 pm allowing all the precipitation to switch to rain in west-central parts of the state. Plentiful lift with the low passing overhead will create an ideal set up for drizzle and fog. The low will become engulfed in surface ridging by Sunday, though forecast soundings hold onto low stratus and occasional drizzle through at least the first half of the day. A warm front will lift through the area later Sunday night, bringing the return of rain and warming temperatures overnight into Monday morning. The highest rain amounts will coincide with storms where 0.
Short Range (Today and Tomorrow) Upper level analysis this morning displays a mid to upper level low pressure system centered over north-central Missouri, progressing eastward. This system has been responsible for widespread freezing rain/drizzle over much of eastern Nebraska and Iowa this weekend. Additional refreezing of moisture remaining on roadways from our previous freezing rain event will also be possible. Continued warm air advection will bring high temperatures into the 40s and potentially the low 50s in southeast NE and southwest IA where breaks in the cloud cover will be possible.
(Today and tonight) An upper level low amplitude ridge currently sitting overhead will move east today as an upper trough begins to build to the west shifting winds from zonal to southwesterly flow. Although some high level clouds will roll through this afternoon hindering day time heating, another warmer than normal day is in store with highs ranging from upper 60s to mid 70s. Light southwesterly winds will persist for majority of the day but will shift to the north late tonight into early tomorrow morning as a cold front pushes through the region.
Sunday night looks to have the sky beginning to show some breaks as the next cold front begins to push into the Hill Country.
1119 PM CST Sat Dec 14 2024 Rain is forecast today and tonight along with a cold front.
The low pressure which brought drizzle and ice last night across northern MO currently sits just north of Topeka. Sufficient moisture on the wrap around of the systems keeps a light drizzle over the area even after the low's center moves eastward this evening. This combined with light winds from slight surface ridging overnight creates a favorable environment for fog.
Weak ridging will build eastward tonight, with its axis pushing east of the area during the day Monday. Given the ridge and southerly surface flow, temperatures will remain above normal through the first part of the new work week, with lows in the 50s and highs in the 70s.
(Today through Monday) Key Messages: - Well Above Normal Temperatures through Monday Zonal flow aloft will continue through Monday with onshore flow at the lower levels. The continued onshore flow will continue to advect a warmer airmass leading to well above normal temperatures (highs 10- 12 with lows 15-20 degrees above normal) through Monday.
352 AM CST Sun Dec 15 2024 Forecast discussion for routine morning forecast issuance - Hazardous travel due to light freezing rain is expected this morning for areas north of Highway 29.
858 AM EST Sun Dec 15 2024 Strong high pressure across New England will slowly weaken as it gradually shifts offshore allowing for a warming trend into mid week.
Temperatures below freezing across parts of southeast MN and northeast IA. Ground temperatures and 2" soil temperatures still below freezing in many spots. Some patchy drizzle/freezing drizzle/fog depositing on surfaces, thus untreated or cold surfaces may be slick.
526 AM CST Sun Dec 15 2024 - Widespread dense freezing fog will impact the area Sunday morning, leaving the potential for slick spots on surfaces.
* High pressure the last half of the week will bring light winds and the return of valley inversions. Today (Sunday) is about to be much less chaotic than yesterday! We've got a pause in the active weather today as a transient ridge slides across the region. Sierra ridge gusts will jump up again to around 90-100 mph and NV valleys will see gusts around 30- 40 mph Monday afternoon.
528 AM CST Sun Dec 15 2024 (Today through Monday) Key Messages: - Well Above Normal Temperatures through Monday Zonal flow aloft will continue through Monday with onshore flow at the lower levels. The continued onshore flow will continue to advect a warmer airmass leading to well above normal temperatures (highs 10- 12 with lows 15-20 degrees above normal) through Monday.
With northeast flow in place, expect cooler dew points as well in Southeast AL and Southwest GA, generally in the lower to middle 50s. An upper level low with an associated cold front will be approaching to our north; this will allow for moisture advection causing our cloudy skies today. Yet the high pressure will block the cold front from affecting our region so, we will remain dry for the time being. The highs for today will be in the upper 60s in our northern tier of GA counties to the mid-upper 70s in Florida and the SE Big Bend. Lows tonight will range in the low to mid 50s.
A few locations west of I-45 and south of I-10 could touch into the low 80s today. With the mid-upper level ridge approaching SE Texas today, rain chances will be minimal.
652 AM CST Sun Dec 15 2024 - Light freezing drizzle has resulted in a light glaze of ice and slick travel this morning over parts of eastern North Dakota and northwest Minnesota.