Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
(Tonight) An upper ridge over the southern Plains extending eastward over the Southeast and up into the Ohio Valley will persist through at least tonight.
Flow aloft tomorrow will be zonal and fairly light keeping skies mostly sunny and temperatures in the low-mid 70s. Sunday night a weak disturbance drops in from the northwest and pushes a dry cold front through the region.
Discussion: A weak wave is rotating around the upper ridge across the Ohio valley and central Appalachians. For Sunday, upper ridge remains over the region allowing for another unseasonably hot day with temperatures from 5 to 10 degrees above normal.
1210 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024 - A strong cold front will track across the area this morning, creating cooler and windy conditions today.
1235 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024 (Today through Sunday) Water vapor imagery this morning reveals an upper level ridge anchored across the Southern Plains. This ridge will remain in control for one more day before it begins to flatten out on Sunday as an upper trough lifts across the Plains. High temperatures today will warm into the low 90s along the coast to the mid 90s out west. A weakening ridge will help us trim off a couple of degrees from our highs on Sunday.
Ridging aloft and high pressure at the surface will keep clear skies and quiet weather in the forecast across area today. /KP/ Today and Tonight: Ridging aloft will remain wedged into the Lower Mississippi River Valley from the southwest, as high pressure at the surface remains over the southeast United States.
200 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024 - Areas of frost tonight west and parts of south central as skies clear, winds diminish, and temperatures dip into the lower to mid 30s. - Dry weather prevails Current surface analysis places low over western Minnesota with cold front sweeping to the southwest, while high remains over central Montana into Alberta/Saskatchewan. Upper level analysis places trough over Manitoba, with fast cyclonic flow over our area.
- Much cooler for Sunday with lingering showers/storms. An area of convection was moving out across the northern Texas/Oklahoma panhandles at early afternoon well ahead of the approaching upper trof just southwest of the Four Corners region. The main theme on Sunday will be much cooler weather with lingering showers and perhaps a few storms on gusty northerly winds.
(Through Sunday) Dry weather will continue through the weekend with high pressure continuing to build into the region.
1008 AM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024 - A strong cold front will track across the area this morning, creating cooler and windy conditions today.
1207 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024 (Today through Sunday) Little day-to-day variability in sensible weather conditions will continue through Sunday due to the presence of a deep-layer ridge.
(Tonight through Sunday night) Mid level ridge positioned over the brush country this afternoon will result in warm and mostly dry conditions. The mid level ridge will shift eastward to the coast on Sunday while weakening slightly. Given the slightly weaker ridge, max temperatures may be a degree or two less on Sunday and just above climatology.
(Rest of today through Sunday) Water vapor imagery this morning shows an upper-level high pressure centered over eastern TX. With Middle TN mainly under the influence of ridging from this high, temperatures through this weekend will remain hot in the upper-80s into the low-90s.
Overnight lows tonight will once again be in the upper 30s to low 40s for the valleys with highs on Sunday just a touch warmer in the low 70s for the valleys. Lows Sunday night for the valleys expected to be in the low to mid 40s as the weak system pushes through the area and winds keep the lower atmosphere stirred up somewhat.
- Additional thunderstorms will develop this afternoon into the evening as a cold front moves through the region.
A low pressure system crossing through Arizona will bring cooler temperatures, breezy winds, and chances for showers and thunderstorms through this afternoon. Warmer and drier weather is expected to return for much of the upcoming week. Scattered showers and thunderstorms have redeveloped this afternoon in the core of the upper low nearing northeastern Arizona. Showers will come to an end this evening when drier air filters in as the low pushes further east into New Mexico and Colorado. A few outlying high mountain valley will likely hit freezing but elsewhere looks to stay above. Strong Pacific high pressure will build over the west, bringing a much warmer period of weather with light winds. Expect temperatures to climb back above normal through the week, perhaps nearing 80 degrees in the mountains and upper 90s in the lowest valleys by the middle of the week.
Aside from a few lingering light showers in Northwest Arizona, dry conditions will resume today as high pressure slowly rebuilds over the region. The upper low that impacted the area yesterday is over north central Arizona this morning. Those showers will then end by early evening as the low pulls away.
252 PM EDT Sat Sep 21 2024 High pressure will build from eastern Canada through Sunday while low pressure in the open Atlantic drifts further out to sea.
The approach of a longwave trough and near-surface cold front will bring sufficient lift for showers and a few thunderstorms across the northern Rio Grande Plains, Edwards Plateau, and western Hill Country Sunday evening into the overnight hours. Daytime temperatures will be 2- 4F cooler across the entire area on Sunday because of additional cloudcover.
358 PM EDT Sat Sep 21 2024 Dry forecast continues for the remainder of the weekend, with high pressure dominating. Weak high pressure will continue to be in place through the forecast period under the northwest flow aloft. Lows tonight will once again be in the middle 60s with highs Sunday a touch warmer than today in the middle 80s. In fact, forecast may end up being completely dry with an upr-level ridge axis moving into the area.
400 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024 - A strong cold front is tracking south across the area today resulting in breezy northerly winds with gusts of 25-35 mph. Much cooler high temperatures only in the upper 50s to lower 60s are expected on Sunday.
1242 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024 Today and Tonight: Ridging aloft will remain wedged into the Lower Mississippi River Valley from the southwest, as high pressure at the surface remains over the southeast United States.
- Much cooler and breezy with widespread showers diminishing by Sunday afternoon and evening. Meanwhile, a cold front continues to slowly drift south and currently has made it through the northwestern half of the CWA and appears to be directly overhead at our office as of this writing. Severe window should be relatively short-lived with much drier/cooler and somewhat breezy conditions behind the front. Lows tonight will drop into the 50s with highs on Sunday remaining in the lower to mid 60s under mostly cloudy skies with off and on showers.
(This evening through Sunday Night) The last official day of the summer season still certainly feels like it if you've stepped outside this afternoon as temperatures range from the lower to mid 90s across the region. Another relatively warm overnight period lies ahead with low temperatures ranging from the lower to mid 70s under mostly clear skies as the afternoon cumulus field will quickly fade after sunset. One more day of above average temperatures is expected on Sunday with the upper-level ridge will remain anchored along the Gulf coast, albeit flattening out somewhat as an upper trough begins to eject E/SE from the Rockies into the Central and Southern Plains. This trough will help to usher a cold front into the Middle Red Red Valley of southern Oklahoma and north central Texas by late Sunday afternoon.
Frost potential will be the primary impact tonight into Sunday morning across the lower valleys of western Montana and higher valleys of north-central Idaho.
Communities in the Lower Keys where this cloud line brought rain should see dry conditions return again for the rest of the evening.
Unseasonably warm temperatures are forecast across the Midsouth on Sunday, as a strong upper level ridge prevails over the lower Mississippi River Valley.
635 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024 (Rest of today through Sunday) Water vapor imagery this morning shows an upper-level high pressure centered over eastern TX. With Middle TN mainly under the influence of ridging from this high, temperatures through this weekend will remain hot in the upper-80s into the low-90s.
737 PM EDT Sat Sep 21 2024 High pressure building over the SE US will keep warm and dry conditions in place through Sunday. Key Message(s): - Partly cloudy with near normal low temperatures Weak high pressure will remain over the area overnight.
623 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024 - Areas of frost tonight west and parts of south central as skies clear, winds diminish, and temperatures dip into the lower to mid 30s. Current surface analysis places low over western Minnesota with cold front sweeping to the southwest, while high remains over central Montana into Alberta/Saskatchewan. Upper level analysis places trough over Manitoba, with fast cyclonic flow over our area.
Late Sunday, high clouds will increase in the northern zones, with southern zones seeing more cloud cover by Sunday night as another weak dry cold front moves in.
1022 PM EDT Sat Sep 21 2024 High pressure will build from eastern Canada through Sunday while low pressure in the open Atlantic drifts further out to sea.
738 PM EDT Sat Sep 21 2024 Dry forecast continues for the remainder of the weekend, with high pressure dominating. Weak high pressure will continue to be in place through the forecast period under the northwest flow aloft. Lows tonight will once again be in the middle 60s with highs Sunday a touch warmer than today in the middle 80s. In fact, forecast may end up being completely dry with an upr-level ridge axis moving into the area.
610 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024 (Tonight through Sunday night) Mid level ridge positioned over the brush country this afternoon will result in warm and mostly dry conditions. The mid level ridge will shift eastward to the coast on Sunday while weakening slightly. Given the slightly weaker ridge, max temperatures may be a degree or two less on Sunday and just above climatology.
pdf High pressure will stretch down the east coast and across the area Tonight. Temperatures will have a broad range Tonight, due to onshore flow across the relatively warmer coastal waters. Lows in the mid 60s will be common inland, and in the lower to mid 70s along the Atlantic coast.
High pressure surface and aloft will hold over west central and southwest Florida for the next couple of days. Ridging will remain to our north but will drift from the Gulf of Mexico to the Atlantic. The lower PW along with ridging remaining to our north will limit shower activity each day with only isolated chances across the area. Ridging will continue to drift into the Atlantic causing what we call a break between it and a trough pushing the midwest.
This boundary is currently draped from north to south across the offshore Gulf waters through the Lower Keys to the nearshore and offshore waters to the south. Otherwise, it has been a rather quiet late September evening with temperatures along the Island Chain in the lower 80s and dew points in the mid 70s. The 00z sounding this evening showed once again a mostly dry profile with some moisture in the low levels up to around 800 mb.
High pressure over central Texas will continue to nose into the deep south brining dry northerly flow across the area.
634 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024 - A strong cold front is tracking south across the area today resulting in breezy northerly winds with gusts of 25-35 mph. Much cooler high temperatures only in the upper 50s to lower 60s are expected on Sunday.
627 PM EDT Sat Sep 21 2024 High pressure will build from eastern Canada through Sunday while low pressure in the open Atlantic drifts further out to sea.
944 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024 - Areas of frost tonight west and parts of south central as skies clear, winds diminish, and temperatures dip into the lower to mid 30s. With clear skies and calm winds expected, temperatures are forecast to cool into the low to mid 30s in much of the west and parts of south central North Dakota. Current surface analysis places low over western Minnesota with cold front sweeping to the southwest, while high remains over central Montana into Alberta/Saskatchewan. Upper level analysis places trough over Manitoba, with fast cyclonic flow over our area.
------------------------------------------------------------------- Additional thunderstorms have developed across Forest, Clarion, and Jefferson counties where a surface boundary was located, and as an upper trough was crossing NW and north central PA. This activity should diminish and exit the region over the next one to two hours as the trough shifts ewd, and diurnal instability wanes. Very dry air has mixed down behind the surface boundary, with dew points in the 40s to the lower 50s.
The low temperature forecast of 65F-70F still looks good. (Rest of today through Sunday) Water vapor imagery this morning shows an upper-level high pressure centered over eastern TX. With Middle TN mainly under the influence of ridging from this high, temperatures through this weekend will remain hot in the upper-80s into the low-90s.
625 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024 Unseasonably warm temperatures are forecast across the Midsouth on Sunday, as a strong upper level ridge prevails over the lower Mississippi River Valley.
537 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024 (This evening through Sunday Night) The last official day of the summer season still certainly feels like it if you've stepped outside this afternoon as temperatures range from the lower to mid 90s across the region. Another relatively warm overnight period lies ahead with low temperatures ranging from the lower to mid 70s under mostly clear skies as the afternoon cumulus field will quickly fade after sunset. One more day of above average temperatures is expected on Sunday with the upper-level ridge will remain anchored along the Gulf coast, albeit flattening out somewhat as an upper trough begins to eject E/SE from the Rockies into the Central and Southern Plains. This trough will help to usher a cold front into the Middle Red Red Valley of southern Oklahoma and north central Texas by late Sunday afternoon.
734 PM EDT Sat Sep 21 2024 (Through Sunday) Dry weather will continue through the weekend with high pressure continuing to build into the region.
(The rest of tonight) Upper ridging continues to weaken as trough to the west slowly moves through the four corners region. Further west, areal movement with showers and storms across NC OK and KS will translate east overnight as the slow moving upper trough pushes into the plains. (Tomorrow through Saturday) A pattern shift will commence Sunday as a positively tilted trough ejects off the Rockies and moves over the Central/Southern Plains.
920 PM EDT Sat Sep 21 2024 Dry forecast continues for the remainder of the weekend, with high pressure dominating. Weak high pressure will continue to be in place through the forecast period under the northwest flow aloft. Lows tonight will once again be in the middle 60s with highs Sunday a touch warmer than today in the middle 80s. In fact, forecast may end up being completely dry with an upr-level ridge axis moving into the area.
1213 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 (Tonight through Sunday night) Mid level ridge positioned over the brush country this afternoon will result in warm and mostly dry conditions. The mid level ridge will shift eastward to the coast on Sunday while weakening slightly. Given the slightly weaker ridge, max temperatures may be a degree or two less on Sunday and just above climatology.
212 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 - The cold front is moving through our area this morning. - Low confidence is in the forecast regarding late this week into the weekend as an upper low interacts with the tropics in a blocking pattern. The cold front at 2 AM, is moving into our north counties this morning, with dew points in the 50s just north of Highway 20. This dry air will allow us to see colder temperatures where rain is falling behind the cold front this morning, as wet bulb temperatures crash into the low 60s/upper 50s. The rain will be widespread in the south 1/3-1/2 of the CWA this morning, with scattered showers and weak thunderstorms along the cold front in the north.
Highs will be around normal in the lower to mid 70s. Tonight we will see height falls associated with a trough moving across Canada. However, we added (over model guidance) a slight chance of showers over the east Monday morning as the trough axis does strengthen just a bit as it moves into the high plains. Look for temperatures Monday to be just a bit cooler than today with breezy to locally gusty northwest winds (15-25 mph gusts). Warmer than normal temperatures associated with upper ridging will be the main story.
(Today through Monday) Water vapor imagery this morning reveals a fairly active pattern as the upper level ridge that has been in place is being nudged east by a digging trough across the Four Corners region. At the surface, a cold front can be analyzed across the northern portions of the state. High temps today and tomorrow will settle into the low to mid 90s along with heat indices around 100-105 degrees.
Based on the current trends low temps were adjusted to the NBM 25th percentile with matches up with the idea of colder spots in the upper 30s and most locations falling to the lower 40s by sunrise Sun morning. Mid to late week, anomalously strong upper ridging builds into the Intermountain West and Canadian Prairies. As this ridging builds, continued lack of moisture and forcing for ascent will keep conditions dry.
High pressure just to our north will shift slightly south during the early part of the week in response to a trough over the Great Lakes dipping south. The location of the trough axis will lead to light easterly flow through the middle of the week. Confidence is increasing that an area of low pressure will become more organized in the Caribbean and move into the Gulf around mid week.
423 AM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024 Weak high pressure builds over central Pennsylvania today.
High pressure will build over the region this upcoming week.
Areas under the clouds have stayed warmer and not cooled off as quickly as forecasted, so some updates were needed to the hourly temperatures. Quiet weather continues through Sunday night although the skinny upper ridge over us tomorrow will break down fairly quickly allowing clouds to begin racing in overnight Sunday in preparation for increasing rain chances again on Monday. Sharp upper level ridge continues to shift east on Monday morning placing our region inbetween features.
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Only thing of note is a weak and dry cold front passing through the area Sunday night through Monday morning which will bring a few clouds and a slight increase in the winds, but the cold air advection will only delay our warming trend by maybe a day and not really bring a drop in high temperatures for Monday.
Monday will warm quickly into the low 70s, making for another pleasant late September day.
337 AM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024 (Today through Monday) Mid level high pressure continues across the far SE TX coast. With the high in that position, N/NW flow aloft will persist across much of GA through the period. At the surface, high pressure at the surface will also persist through the short term. Models do show a weakness in the ridging at the surface, almost like a very weak lee trough.
Dry conditions return briefly today, with temperatures in the low to high 70s. Sharp upper level ridge continues to shift east on Monday morning placing our region inbetween features.
This high will begin to slowly move east today and should be found centered along the gulf coast Monday.
transient ridging moving over the Northern Rockies through late(early) Sunday morning(afternoon) will continue to bring dry and overall quiet conditions to Southwest through North Central Montana. Increasing cross barrier flow on the upstream side of the transient ridge and an increasing surface pressure gradient along the Continental Divide and Central Montana mountains will lead to breezy and gusty winds for areas along the Rocky Mountain Front and MT Hwy 200 corridor for the afternoon and evening hours on Sunday.
Today's forecast features perhaps more widespread rain and thunderstorm chances, but still on the lower side near 30%. Our upper air pattern starts to shift on Monday as a trough begins building in from the Great Plains. Mid-level lapse rates are still on the low side, but are a touch higher near 6.
Rua (Tonight through Monday night) Ridging aloft is still centered over south Texas, with a ridge extending across LA and into Mississippi. At the surface, high pressure stretches across the Gulf Coast. Â Sunday will be similar to today as the ridge starts to slowly shift eastward. Even with the change, our temperatures will remain stubbornly in the 90s with dew points in the low to mid 70s, keeping the muggy weather around for a bit longer. By Monday we will start to see a change to our forecast as the peak of the ridge will be east of our area. The weaker ridge will allow for more showers to develop and help our temperatures decrease.
Temperatures will be a few degrees cooler for Sunday and Monday, with highs generally in the upper 60s to lower 70s.
1005 PM MDT Sat Sep 21 2024 - Cooler today. - A little warmer Sunday, with no precipitation chances. - A quick moving system Monday brings a north wind and cooler temperatures.
1211 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 (The rest of tonight) Upper ridging continues to weaken as trough to the west slowly moves through the four corners region. Further west, areal movement with showers and storms across NC OK and KS will translate east overnight as the slow moving upper trough pushes into the plains.
1212 AM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024 High pressure will build from eastern Canada through Sunday night while low pressure in the open Atlantic drifts further out to sea.
Areas that are well to the south of the main precipitation band are expected to still reach the lower 90s this afternoon. By mid to late afternoon the surface cold front will pick up speed and push through the area bringing much cooler temperatures and a gusty northwesterly wind.
A cold front will move through the region Sunday night into Monday, bringing more seasonable temperatures for the start of the work week.
357 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 - Cooler and breezy with widespread (50-75%) showers for the first day of Fall.
Lows here will dip into the low to mid 30s. Western and central North Dakota sits under the influence of northwest flow aloft and high pressure at the surface. The expectation is that we will continue to get a bit colder through the morning hours, with several stations likely to dip into the lower 30s across the west. Today's highs will be just a touch warmer than yesterday with relatively light winds. Highs will be in the lower 60s to the lower 70s (warmest southwest and south central) under plenty of sunshine. Highs will be another touch warmer on Monday even though we will likely have fairly widespread cloud cover (mid 60s to mid 70s).
WIth 850 mb temperatures running 8-10 degrees C over our area, it will be a cooler day with highs in the upper 60s to around 70. While there is no strong model guidance indicating fog tonight, with the nearly calm in winds in a southeasterly flow, cannot completely rule out patchy shallow fog in some of the lower lying areas - though confidence is low for this scenario. In response, we are looking for lows in the lower to mid 40s - perhaps into the upper 30s through east central SD where ensembles show a 60% probability of temperatures less than 40 degrees. With warm air advection, highs will climb a bit - into the lower to mid 70s.