Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1246 PM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025 (Today through Saturday) A 500mb trough axis will move southeast of the area today reinforcing the dry, northerly flow across Central Alabama. Persistent and expansive ridging centered just to our west will lead to near identical conditions on Saturday.
Current Conditions and Synoptic Overview: Water vapor and upper air analysis shows a mid level ridge from Texas northeastward into the area. Temps have warmed into the lower 90s. On Saturday, the ridge will remain over the area however guidance shows a slight weakness/weak vort that rotates around the ridge across the Mississippi River area. Otherwise, alot of the area will simply remain hot and dry with highs again in the low to middle 90s.
208 PM EDT Fri Sep 12 2025 High pressure will move east of the region tonight into tomorrow. An upper level disturbance and a cold front will bring widely scattered showers to region Saturday afternoon into Saturday night.
Upper level ridge continues to dominate the central US with bookend troughs on both of the coasts.
In tandem with a mid level trough over the eastern seaboard, drier air/northerly flow at multiple levels will not only keep pops and QPF out of the forecast, but also keep drier dewpoints in it.
Western periphery of high pressure and build up of a 586dam ridge brings another round of dry weather and mostly sunny skies.
(Through Saturday) An upper level trough continues to dig southeast through the forecast area into Saturday as it begins to cutoff somewhere across the southeast US.
225 PM EDT Fri Sep 12 2025 High pressure wil move east of the region through Saturday.
Highs on Saturday in the mid 90s; highs beyond in the low 90s.
Despite the very dry air aloft, we're seeing just enough convergence at the surface to lift parcels past the high LCLs to produce a few showers across our far southwest counties. After cooling into the low to mid 60s with mostly calm winds, another hot day will occur tomorrow as the upper ridge continues to build eastward.
Otherwise, scattered cumulus fields are developing over the high elevation ridges of the eastern mountains, with radar having picked up a weak shower or two moving south from the Wallowa mountains. Today through Saturday: An upper low that has fueled showers and thunderstorms across the area the past several days has moved off into the ID this morning, with the forecast area on the northerly flow side of the low. Much like previous days, modest CAPE (250-750 J/kg), and modest lower to mid level lapse rates will allow thunderstorms to develop fairly quickly (pulse) through the afternoon, however storms will be slow moving as steering flow is fairly weak (10-15 kts) in the lower and mid levels. By Saturday, drier conditions will settle into the region as transient ridging slides across the PacNW.
754 PM EDT Fri Sep 12 2025 High pressure will be in control through Saturday.
An upper ridge will move over the area today and on Saturday, bringing temperatures to just above seasonal levels. Under this ridge, the weekend will get off to a quiet start.
Satellite imagery this evening shows the upper level trough axis oriented from southern AB to central ID with smaller scale waves/vort features embedded.
1048 PM EDT Fri Sep 12 2025 High pressure slides southeast across New England tonight into Saturday.
Gusty winds will continue into the early evening before lighter winds and cooler temperatures arrive for the weekend. A long-wave trough will gradually push eastward across the western states over the next 24 hours ushering in a drier air mass, lighter winds and cooler temperatures. For the rest of the area a dry air mass will push in from the west behind the eastward moving trough. It will turn a bit cooler behind the trough and with weaker pressure gradients developing daytime winds will turn much lighter, generally from the west to southwest at 10 to 20 mph.
707 PM EDT Fri Sep 12 2025 (Through Saturday) An upper level trough continues to dig southeast through the forecast area into Saturday as it begins to cutoff somewhere across the southeast US.
625 PM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025 - Warmer on Friday and Saturday, with highs mainly in the upper 80s to lower 90s.
High pressure ridging remains in place across the eastern CONUS including the TN valley. A modest ridge-valley split should result in overnight lows in the upper 50s in our northeast AL and southern middle TN valleys, with lower 60s in north central and northwest AL. Tempeartures on the ridges and near larger bodies of water may only dip into the middle 60s.
741 PM EDT Fri Sep 12 2025 High pressure will exit to the east through Saturday.
/NF/ Tonight and Saturday: Warmer than normal temperatures and dry weather will continue through Saturday. Our CWA will become beneath a large 592dam ridge that is part of the omega block centered over the CONUS. Surface analysis had a 1018mb ridge oriented northeast to southwest across our CWA. This ridge will change very little through Saturday. The combined ridging surface and aloft will help maintain the warmer than normal temperatures across our region with highs Saturday topping out in the low to mid 90s again. Lows Saturday morning will range from the mid 60s northeast to the lower 70s southwest. At the surface, high pressure centered over the eastern U. will help reinforce dry flow into the southeast region into the lower levels.
As high pressure slides off to the east, an upper level low will dig into eastern Canada Saturday with a trailing weak cold front passing through western NY.
753 PM EDT Fri Sep 12 2025 High pressure centered to our north will extend down through the Mid Atlantic and the Carolinas through the weekend, although a northeasterly wind flow and passage of an upper level trough into the region will bring periods of clouds each day. -GIH High pressure will be centered over southeastern West Virginia Saturday morning and will move little over the next 24 hours. Highs will be similar or slightly cooler than today's values, generally around 80 degrees. Lows will also be slightly cooler, mostly in the 50s.
726 PM EDT Fri Sep 12 2025 High pressure will move east of the region tonight into tomorrow. An upper level disturbance and a cold front will bring widely scattered showers to region Saturday afternoon into Saturday night.
222 PM PDT Fri Sep 12 2025 Updated at 220 PM PDT Fri Sep 12 2025 * A strong upper trough with Pacific moisture will push in from the NW bringing a return of showers and thunderstorms, as well as cooler temperatures through Saturday. (Today through next Friday) WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Current weather pattern depicts an elongated upper trough across northwestern Nevada with upper ridging over Texas. Highs will be cooler than normal with readings in the 60s and 70s. On Saturday, all models are showing the upper trough axis slowly exiting to the east into Utah during the day.
Weak high pressure over the region through Saturday.
Clouds begin to increase Saturday afternoon as a weak short wave trough dives through the Great Lakes.
Low pressure developing in the Plains has a warm front extending into the Midwest but makes little eastward progress during the early weekend period. The system produces showers and thunderstorms to the north and east of the warm front but which only graze SW Lower Mi. Western periphery of high pressure and build up of a 586dam ridge brings another round of dry weather and mostly sunny skies.
While there is some moisture in the lower levels, a fairly stout cap of mid-level dry and warm air will likely limit any convection from developing across our region today. On Sunday, an upper trough axis moves out of the southern Rockies into the southern plains.
134 AM EDT Sat Sep 13 2025 A few light rain showers possible today, especially across the North Country due to a passing weak cold front. Clear skies early this morning will give way to increasing cloud cover and a few spotty showers as an upper level low will dig southeast into eastern Canada, dragging its trailing weak cold front across western and north central New York. Heading into this evening, spotty shower activity will linger, especially across the North Country due the close proximity of the better forcing associated with the upper level trough. Weak cold front and supporting mid level trough will exit the region Sunday morning.
Over the Weekend: A ridge over the Plains and trough along the East Coast will produce mid and upper level subsidence over Georgia this weekend.
This wave is set to drop southeast over far southern Lake Michigan due to the presence of an essentially stalled warm frontal boundary near the Mississippi river valley. While rain chances are lack luster, abundant accompanying cloud cover keeps high temps a few degrees cooler than yesterday, instead topping out in the upper 70s. Deepening troughing over the western CONUS leads to a downstream amplification of ridging across the central CONUS to close out the weekend.
This pattern will be the result of a flow at the surface generally from the east, a relatively moist atmosphere, daytime heating, the east to west progression of the seabreeze boundary, and 500 mb high pressure that will be nearby but not oppressive.
201 AM EDT Sat Sep 13 2025 - Mostly Dry Pattern Continues - Mostly Dry Pattern Continues Area of showers and thunderstorms across Wisconsin will be moving southeast this morning and gradually dissipating as the low level jet weakens.
- Fog late tonight? - Warmer temperatures mainly in the 70s through the forecast period. Given the clearing skies and increasing high pressure today/this afternoon, thinking highs will be slightly warmer than what was realized yesterday; thinking most spots will be in the lower to mid 70s, with a few isolated spots in the interior west potentially flirting with 80F. In addition to the warmer temperatures, the high pressure will keep winds light at the sfc.
/Issued 820 PM MDT Fri Sep 12 2025/ Satellite imagery this evening shows the upper level trough axis oriented from southern AB to central ID with smaller scale waves/vort features embedded.
215 AM EDT Sat Sep 13 2025 Outside of low chances (less than 20 percent chance) for isolated rain showers in the southern Adirondacks, Mid-Hudson Valley, and Litchfield Hills, a mostly dry day is in store today across eastern New York and western New England as a weak weather system approaches from the north and high pressure heads east.
134 AM EDT Sat Sep 13 2025 High pressure slides southeast across New England today. A weak cold front approaches overnight and crosses Sunday bringing the chance for scattered showers.
(Tonight through Sunday Night) High pressure continues to dictate dry, stable weather across the region. Above-normal temperatures are forecast each afternoon with Nashville peaking in the low 90s.
154 AM EDT Sat Sep 13 2025 High pressure will exit to the east today. A cold front will approach tonight and cross the area Sunday.
On Sunday morning the axis of a trough moving across the region will be east of the Rockies. High pressure will briefly build behind the trough.
213 AM EDT Sat Sep 13 2025 High pressure centered to our north will extend down through the Mid Atlantic and the Carolinas through the weekend, although a northeasterly wind flow and passage of an upper level trough into the region will bring periods of clouds each day. -GIH High pressure will be centered over southeastern West Virginia Saturday morning and will move little over the next 24 hours. Highs will be similar or slightly cooler than today's values, generally around 80 degrees. Lows will also be slightly cooler, mostly in the 50s.
Highs today will be substantially above normal, mostly in the lower and middle 90s F, cooling into the middle and upper 60s F tonight. Few changes in the overall pattern are expected over the next several days as upper ridging remains dominant through the work week. Some guidance suggests weak troughing may try to nose in from the west in the 6-7 day timeframe and that could result in a weak front accompanied by showers at that time but confidence in such an outcome is currently low.
Rain chances return Sunday with highs in the lower to mid 70s. We then return to dry weather and temperatures near or just warmer than average through mid week.
High pressure will attempt to build into the region, but a persistent northwesterly flow aloft will keep the pattern somewhat unsettled today.
(Today and tonight) Showers and storms forming in advance of a trough moving across NM and the TX Panhandle and Permian Basin may eventually approach our extreme western counties by late tonight. High temperatures today will be similar to yesterday (upper 80s to low 90s), if not 1 or 2 degrees lower due to very slight weakening of the 850 mb thermal ridge. High pressure to the east and low pressure associated with the aforementioned trough will result in continued south to southeasterly low level/surface winds, with some 15-20 mph gusts late this morning and afternoon.
An upper level ridge axis was over the southern and central plains per the 19Z water vapor imagery and profiler data. Surface obs placed a broad area of low pressure over the NEB Panhandle and adjacent areas of CO and SD. Southwesterly surface winds and good mixing were helping temps warm into the lower 90s. The upper ridge axis is progged to remain over the forecast area through Saturday with general subsidence and warm weather continuing. Although models show a little less mixing and some cooling at 925MB suggesting readings may be a degree cooler. Additionally with better chances remaining across north central KS, there may be enough insolation across northeast and east central KS for highs to make it into the lower 90s.
(Today through Sunday) We'll have plenty of sunshine to enjoy this weekend with the expansive ridge dominating the weather pattern. Temperature trends have mostly begun to stabilize, so highs will be similar to yesterday ranging from the lower 90s west to upper 80s east.
A broad western trough will continue its slow eastward march through the day.
These storms are co-located with some 35-45 kt effective shear, a weak trough embedded with the broader ridge aloft, and plenty of warm and moist air advection. We have some juicy dew points in the low 60s out ahead of the current complex, but temperatures aren't extremely warm out there with the anvil cirrus shield extending out ahead of the thunderstorm complex. Once storms move out later this evening, we settle back into easterly flow at the surface and warm air advection aloft underneath a broad ridge. The ridge should stick around through the weekend, keeping temperatures warm (well above normal, though not quite record breaking). With easterly onshore flow, expect cooler temperatures around Lake Superior, but inland, expect highs in the 80s. Sunday night, an upper-level trough may bring some showers and thunderstorms.
246 AM CDT Sat Sep 13 2025 - Hotter today with highs reaching the lower 90s this afternoon.
(Today and tonight) A deep upper trough is currently driving significant monsoonal activity across New Mexico. While the main mid-level trough axis will be moving over the Four Corners region, an initial wave out ahead of it will track near the TX/NM border by mid-morning. Despite the cloud cover/precipitation, the southerly flow will allow for warmer temperatures will continue with highs generally ranging from the mid 80s to near 90 off the Caprock.
- A cold front will impact the area Saturday, bringing cooler temperatures through the weekend. The upper level low is slowly pushing into the Northern Intermountain west. After 6pm or 00z our thunderstorm potential will transition to shower potential creating the second phase or wave as a cold front pushes through.
The synoptic pattern is still dominated by an upper level ridge that extends across much of the Plains and Midwest with deep 500 mb troughs on either side. The ridge is losing its vertical continuity, and there appears to be some weak diffluence in the midlevels as high pressure churns over the southeast and low pressure begins to encroach on the High Plains. With an eye on this energy, dominant high pressure will still bring us mostly sunny skies and hot conditions with highs in the 90s today. Sunday, the trough to the west starts to lift to our northwest. While we primarily remain under the influence of the ridge, a few models are breaking out showers along a front that may extend down from the low pressure center.
High pressure ridging remains in place across the eastern CONUS including the TN valley. A modest ridge-valley split should result in overnight lows in the upper 50s in our northeast AL and southern middle TN valleys, with lower 60s in north central and northwest AL. Temperatures on the ridges and near larger bodies of water may only dip into the middle 60s.
1208 AM CDT Sat Sep 13 2025 Tonight and Saturday: Warmer than normal temperatures and dry weather will continue through Saturday. Our CWA will become beneath a large 592dam ridge that is part of the omega block centered over the CONUS. Surface analysis had a 1018mb ridge oriented northeast to southwest across our CWA. This ridge will change very little through Saturday. The combined ridging surface and aloft will help maintain the warmer than normal temperatures across our region with highs Saturday topping out in the low to mid 90s again. Lows Saturday morning will range from the mid 60s northeast to the lower 70s southwest. At the surface, high pressure centered over the eastern U. will help reinforce dry flow into the southeast region into the lower levels.
An upper level ridge continues to amplify over the central CONUS; With the forecast area on the eastern edge of this building ridge, there are 20-40% chances for rain and storms on Saturday. Rain and storms chances increase in our northwest near Lake Michigan around midday Saturday and propagate south/southeast during the afternoon and evening along the periphery of the ridge. A warm front lifts northward tonight, with southerly winds allowing for WAA and decent moisture transport behind it into the day tomorrow. The aforementioned ridge axis will move over the Midwest and Great Lakes regions, allowing for warmer temperatures and persistent dry conditions.
(Today) Predominantly quiet conditions are likely across the region today with high temperatures in the lower to mid 90s. The high pressure center gradually slides east today, with low potential for a few afternoon showers or a stray thunderstorm, primarily in NW AR.
Mid-level ridging remains in control of the Southern and Central Plains early this morning ahead of a longwave trough across the western CONUS. The aforementioned western trough becomes negatively tilted as it ejects across the Plains tonight into Sunday.
Discussion: Through the weekend, the pattern across the eastern Conus will feature a ridge near the MS Valley region, with a trough near the Atlantic coastline.
301 AM CDT Sat Sep 13 2025 - Patchy fog, including visibility below one mile, is possible tonight near the Buffalo Ridge.
Rain chances return Sunday with highs in the lower to mid 70s. We then return to dry weather and temperatures near or just warmer than average through mid week. High pressure remains anchored overhead tonight, leading to another calm and quiet night.
The current surface weather map shows the area of low pressure along the south central SD/north central NE border near VTN. Showers and storms continue north of the low mainly north of a line form Mission Ridge to Onida.
- Temperatures will range from the lower to upper 90s for the next several days.
258 AM PDT Sat Sep 13 2025 Updated at 148 AM PDT Sat Sep 13 2025 * An upper trough will be pushing east today and out of the region This will result in light showers in northeastern Elko county. For today, the upper level trough over the forecast area will shift east.
- Scattered thunderstorm development possible (20-50%) along a cold front Sunday afternoon-evening.
658 AM CDT Sat Sep 13 2025 (Today through Sunday) We'll have plenty of sunshine to enjoy this weekend with the expansive ridge dominating the weather pattern. Temperature trends have mostly begun to stabilize, so highs will be similar to yesterday ranging from the lower 90s west to upper 80s east.
703 AM EDT Sat Sep 13 2025 High pressure will exit to the east today. A cold front will approach tonight and cross the area Sunday.
529 AM CDT Sat Sep 13 2025 - Hotter today with highs reaching the lower 90s this afternoon.
900 AM EDT Sat Sep 13 2025 High pressure will exit to the east today. A cold front will approach tonight and cross the area Sunday.
651 AM EDT Sat Sep 13 2025 Outside of low chances (less than 20 percent chance) for isolated rain showers in the southern Adirondacks, Mid-Hudson Valley, and Litchfield Hills, a mostly dry day is in store today across eastern New York and western New England as a weak weather system approaches from the north and high pressure heads east.
552 AM CDT Sat Sep 13 2025 - Patchy fog, including visibility below one mile, is possible tonight near the Buffalo Ridge.
645 AM EDT Sat Sep 13 2025 A few light rain showers possible today, especially across the North Country due to a passing weak cold front. Clear skies early this morning will give way to increasing cloud cover and a few spotty showers as an upper level low will dig southeast into eastern Canada, dragging its trailing weak cold front across western and north central New York. Heading into this evening, spotty shower activity will linger, especially across the North Country due the close proximity of the better forcing associated with the upper level trough. Weak cold front and supporting mid level trough will exit the region Sunday morning.
729 AM EDT Sat Sep 13 2025 - Mostly Dry Pattern Continues - Mostly Dry Pattern Continues Area of showers and thunderstorms across Wisconsin will be moving southeast this morning and gradually dissipating as the low level jet weakens.
Issued 958 PM CDT Sat Sep 13 2025 The low level jet and associated warm, moist advection has shifted to the south and will be followed by warm temperatures and capping aloft today.
Dry weather with seasonably average temperatures today, before a progressive trough bring a chance of showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms late Saturday night through Sunday morning.
11 inches PWats, clear conditions across the area, and dew points generally in the lower 70s. Drier conditions will linger into mid-week as an upper trough remains across the region with surface ridging across the area and the remnant boundary to the south. Weak ridging will remain through mid-week across the waters with drier conditions keeping rain chances lower.
Cooler temperatures and lighter winds arrive for the weekend. A fairly strong trough for mid September is moving eastward into NW Arizona and Utah this morning. Moisture out ahead of the trough continues to flow into far eastern Arizona with much drier air spreading into central/western parts of the state. Elsewhere, a nice weekend is shaping up as mild daytime temperatures and lighter winds are expected as the trough moves over and then east of the state.
303 AM PDT Sat Sep 13 2025 Corrected Aviation and Fire weather discussions Updated at 148 AM PDT Sat Sep 13 2025 * An upper trough will be pushing east today and out of the region This will result in light showers in northeastern Elko county. For today, the upper level trough over the forecast area will shift east.
Lift from the trough combined with the instability in place is expected to bring scattered/numerous showers and thunderstorms to northeast Colorado later this afternoon and evening. The trough lifts north of Colorado tonight and will be over western Nebraska Sunday morning. Will keep a chance for showers in the forecast through the night as the trough tracks across Colorado. The best chance for additional showers will be wrap around showers on the backside of the low towards sunrise Sunday morning. Highs Sunday are expected to reach the lower to mid 70s across northeast Colorado. The upper level trough to our northeast lifts northward and merges with the longwave trough over western Canada and the Northern Rockies.
Through the weekend, the pattern across the eastern Conus will feature a ridge near the MS Valley region, with a trough near the Atlantic coastline.