Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Despite the cold front moving through our CWA, the southern half of our CWA will top out above normal again Monday afternoon. Due to the drier air already over our CWA and the reinforcing shot of drier air that will be in place Monday night, morning lows will be cooler than normal tonight and Monday night.
333 PM EDT Sun Aug 24 2025 - A cooler and much drier air mass on the way into the area tonight will last through the upcoming week. A cold front is currently progressing southeast through the forecast area. Ensembles and models are in good agreement, that a series of troughs will bring fall like temperatures to Eastern Kentucky through mid- week.
An anomalously strong longwave trough is currently beginning to dig into the Great Lakes region. Over the next few days, this trough will amplify further, allowing for its base to dig into the Deep South. As this occurs, this will help to send a rather strong cold front (for late August standards) southward.
1245 PM EDT Sun Aug 24 2025 - Cooler weather arrives today and persists through much of the week.
- Region will remain mainly dry through mid-week as Canadian high pressure remains in place. - More unsettled weather expected for the latter half of the week Latest satellite imagery shows broad 500hpa trough located across eastern half of the CONUS, with deep 500hpa 4-corner high pressure located across the southwest CONUS. At the surface, high pressure is located across the eastern Dakotas with light easterly/east-northeast surface flow and surface dewpoints in the upper 30s to mid 40s. There is a noted 700hpa theta-e ridge that slides quickly through in the nw flow with minor amounts of forcing.
- Cooler weather arrives Monday. Meanwhile, additional convection across the High Plains of Colorado is expected to grow upscale into a larger complex of storms (MCS) across Kansas this evening and then trek southeast into northern Oklahoma overnight into early Monday. This complex will also aid in pushing cooler air south overspreading the area, which will be the beginning of a much cooler week ahead.
this even includes the Twin Cities heat island! Outlying areas may dip as low as the lower 40s tonight. Expansive dome of high pressure will build in to open the work week.
1242 PM PDT Sun Aug 24 2025 * Showers and thunderstorms capable of producing gusty outflow winds and flash flooding will continue into the evening, with the highest risk for thunderstorms and impacts in Inyo County through the Southern Great Basin.
Surface analysis this afternoon shows high pressure over the Dakotas with a ridge axis extending SE to MO/IL and Indiana. Dew points had fallen to the lower 50s due to mixing and subsidence. These conditions will also lead to good radiational cooling conditions and lows in the lower 50s. This will result in highs mainly in the lower 70s. Models suggest strong upper ridging in place over the western United States, while a deep upper level low pressure system remains across Quebec and Ontario.
342 PM EDT Sun Aug 24 2025 Isolated showers and storms are possible primarily east of Pittsburgh as a cold front passes through the region. Small chance for fog north of I-80 and along the WV ridges. KEY MESSAGES: - Seasonably cool temperatures under upper troughing - Rain showers possible Mon and Tue in NW flow, mainly north of Pittsburgh. ---------------------------------------------------------------- Broad trough, with low centered over Hudson Bay, will be the main influence on the weather pattern through most of the week. Pulses dropping through the trough in west-northwesterly flow will support the generation of showers and possibly a thunderstorm given the differential between the temps at 850hpa and the Great Lake water temps.
A cooler air mass will then move in on Monday and stick around throughout the week. 215 AM Update: Key Messages: * Slow moving cold front will bring scattered showers and storms to the region today - potential for training showers/storms could lead to localized flash flooding and isolated storms may become strong to severe * Cooler with lake effect rain showers across much of CNY through midweek * Conditions remain cool through the end of the week - trending drier as well though cannot rule out isolated showers near end of the work week Discussion:. This forecast has the highest QPF extending from the Finger Lakes up through the Mohawk Valley though some uncertainty remains on the exact location of this band.
- A cold front will swing through the Mid-South tonight into Monday and deliver our first taste of fall weather.
The low and mid level water vapor shows a higher moisture content compared to this time yesterday,and yesterday there were 136 lightning strikes.
226 PM EDT Sun Aug 24 2025 An approaching cold front will bring some showers and thunderstorms through tonight. The front will move east of the region Monday, followed by much cooler temperatures for much of the upcoming week.
There is a 40 to 70 percent chance for rainfall along the higher elevations to exceed one quarter of an inch through 11 PM this evening. An Extreme Heat Warning and Heat Advisory continue through Monday morning for the southern areas of the San Joaquin Valley due to warmer than average maximum and minimum temperatures. Monsoonal moisture and heat continues to flow into Central California thanks to the ridge of high pressure that has set up over much of the Southwest U. A gradual cooling trend will set up for the week afterwards, with daily maximums approaching season averages in the low 90s towards the end of the week.
but a bit cooler over NRN sections in the mid to upper 80s. lows will dip down into the 50s for most areas due to the high pressure settling into the region. (18Z TAFS) A cold front continues to push through the state today.
1258 PM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025 (Tonight through Monday night) There will be a low chance (10-30%) for showers and thunderstorms to work in from the higher terrain in New Mexico into the northwestern combined Panhandles today. Additionally, forecast soundings show a tall/skinny CAPE profile and high freezing levels (>15,000 feet).
Much like last night and this morning, deep layer shear will remain adequate for updraft organization, with straight hodographs with height above the low- level inversion. Additional scattered thunderstorm development is then possible near the HWY 20 corridor Monday afternoon, near a surface warm front draped near the SD/NE border.
- Cold front will approach Georgia late afternoon with the dry and cool airmass pushing into the area overnight into Monday. A cold front dropping across the TN Valley will start to push across the region late this afternoon through tonight, with isolated to scattered showers and storms possible along and ahead of the front. As the cold front pushes through the state tonight into early Monday morning, it will usher in a much drier and cooler airmass, with dewpoints crashing from the upper 60s to the mid to upper 50s and PWAT values falling below 1". This will lead a dry, mostly sunny, and pleasant Monday, with afternoon temps only reaching the low to mid 80s across north GA, and upper 80s across central GA.
Scattered to broken cu across the area this afternoon will dissipate heading into this evening as a cold front continues to push off to our southeast tonight. With a cooler and drier airmass advecting into the region behind it, temperatures tonight will drop into the low to mid 50s. Temperatures on Monday will be 10 to 15 degrees below normal with afternoon highs in the low to mid 70s.
(Now through Monday Night) Issued at 1208 PM AM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025 Our region remains under dry northwesterly flow aloft as a broad scale trough resides over the eastern half of the country. Although we are under a dry northwesterly flow, with the lower POPs the temperatures will be on the warmer side with still some relatively higher heights around and offshore flow supporting the warmer conditions.
218 PM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025 - Monday will be the coolest day this week with morning lows in the upper 40s to low 50s and afternoon highs in the low 70s.
625 PM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025 - An approaching cold front will bring increasing rain chances and eventually cooler air into North Texas late Monday through the rest of this upcoming week. /Issued 124 PM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025/ /Today through Monday Afternoon/ The region continues to find itself wedged between the mid-level high to our west and the mid-level trough to our east/northeast. /Issued 124 PM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025/ /Monday Evening Onward/ The aforementioned cold front will move through North Texas late Monday, with scattered showers and storms expected to continually develop near/along the frontal boundary.
High pressure will generally continue to persist over the area Sunday, but midlevel moisture and high clouds streaming over the area will provide just enough coverage to slightly cool interior conditions into the upper 90s.
but a bit cooler over NRN sections in the mid to upper 80s. lows will dip down into the 50s for most areas due to the high pressure settling into the region. (00Z TAFS) A cold front has pushed through the state bringing some mid and high level cloudiness.
Quite conditions this evening as our cold front has passed through Middle TN. Some high clouds are streaming overhead while temperatures currently read in the low 70s with dewpoints in the low 50s. The cold front has passed through, turning our winds northerly and clearing the skies over Middle Tennessee. Today will be the last day for a bit that the highs reach 90 degrees in some areas. Expect a cooler night with lows in the 50s and 60s.
835 PM EDT Sun Aug 24 2025 - A very pleasant final week of climatological summer, with below normal temperatures and low humidity High pressure continues to dominate the region with prototypical diurnal trends still expected throughout the evening and tonight. Surface analysis this afternoon shows high pressure over the Dakotas with a ridge axis extending SE to MO/IL and Indiana. Dew points had fallen to the lower 50s due to mixing and subsidence. These conditions will also lead to good radiational cooling conditions and lows in the lower 50s. This will result in highs mainly in the lower 70s. Models suggest strong upper ridging in place over the western United States, while a deep upper level low pressure system remains across Quebec and Ontario.
617 PM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025 (Now through Monday Night) Our region remains under dry northwesterly flow aloft as a broad scale trough resides over the eastern half of the country. Although we are under a dry northwesterly flow, with the lower POPs the temperatures will be on the warmer side with still some relatively higher heights around and offshore flow supporting the warmer conditions.
558 PM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025 - Monday will be the coolest day this week with morning lows in the upper 40s to low 50s and afternoon highs in the low 70s.
835 PM EDT Sun Aug 24 2025 - A cooler and much drier air mass on the way into the area tonight will last through the upcoming week. 00Z sfc analysis shows a mostly dry cold front crossing eastern Kentucky. Behind this boundary, high pressure with a drier and cooler air mass is pushing into the area. Currently, temperatures are running in the low to mid 70s. Meanwhile, amid the winds turning northwest at 5 to 10 mph with some higher gusts, dewpoints range from the low 50s north to the mid 60s in the south - still ahead of the front. A cold front is currently progressing southeast through the forecast area. Ensembles and models are in good agreement, that a series of troughs will bring fall like temperatures to Eastern Kentucky through mid- week.
610 PM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025 Updated aviation portion for 00Z TAF issuance - First glimpse of early fall expected early this week with cooler temperatures.
UPDATE High pressure will continue to dominate regional weather this evening through Monday. This afternoon, a nearly stationary upper level low was parked over Ontario, with cyclonic flow over the Dakotas in between the low and an upper high over the Four Corners region. For the first half of the work week, temperatures will warm notably as upper ridging begins to build across the western and into the central CONUS.
Flow wrapping around the high to our south brings a persistence to this wet pattern throughout the week.
- Cool and breezy through the middle of week, then gradually warmer. With high pressure building in tomorrow night, look for lows to fall into the low to mid 40s.
750 PM EDT Sun Aug 24 2025 Isolated showers and storms are possible primarily east of Pittsburgh as a cold front passes through the region. Small chance for fog north of I-80 and along the WV ridges. KEY MESSAGES: - Seasonably cool temperatures under upper troughing - Rain showers possible Mon and Tue in NW flow, mainly north of Pittsburgh. ---------------------------------------------------------------- Broad trough, with low centered over Hudson Bay, will be the main influence on the weather pattern through most of the week. Pulses dropping through the trough in west-northwesterly flow will support the generation of showers and possibly a thunderstorm given the differential between the temps at 850hpa and the Great Lake water temps.
- Daily showers and thunderstorms with cooler temperatures through the next few days Tonight and Tomorrow: Showers and thunderstorms continue as the forecast period starts at 6PM tonight. A post cold front air mass sets up which will push 10-20kts of easterly wind over the plains. Widespread cloudy skies will keep high temperatures in the low to mid 70s across the mountain valleys and the plains. Persistent easterly winds and NW to SE flow aloft (which is parallel to our eastern mountains) could result into training storms, which would impact the Decker and Oak Ridge burn scars. The high PWATs would make for a lot of moisture to precipitate too.
A weak subtropical ridge will remain over the Keys through early to mid week. Towards the latter half of the week, the ridge over the Atlantic will strengthen slightly as a tropical wave moves through the northwest Caribbean Sea.
High pressure will continue to dominate regional weather this evening through Monday. This afternoon, a nearly stationary upper level low was parked over Ontario, with cyclonic flow over the Dakotas in between the low and an upper high over the Four Corners region. For the first half of the work week, temperatures will warm notably as upper ridging begins to build across the western and into the central CONUS.
Much like last night and this morning, deep layer shear will remain adequate for updraft organization, with straight hodographs with height above the low- level inversion. Additional scattered thunderstorm development is then possible near the HWY 20 corridor Monday afternoon, near a surface warm front draped near the SD/NE border. Much like last night and this morning, deep layer shear will remain adequate for updraft organization, with straight hodographs with height above the low- level inversion. Additional scattered thunderstorm development is then possible near the HWY 20 corridor Monday afternoon, near a surface warm front draped near the SD/NE border.
High pressure over the Four Corners Region will persist through at least today, keeping a very warm air mass over the region.
743 PM EDT Sun Aug 24 2025 - Cooler weather ahead with highs mid 60s to low 70s Mon-Tue.
701 PM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025 An anomalously strong longwave trough is currently beginning to dig into the Great Lakes region. Over the next few days, this trough will amplify further, allowing for its base to dig into the Deep South. As this occurs, this will help to send a rather strong cold front (for late August standards) southward.
424 AM EDT Mon Aug 25 2025 - A cooler and much drier air mass on the way into the area tonight will last through the upcoming week. Recent surface analysis shows the forecast area on the backside of a departing cold front. Highs today will climb into the mid-70s, while overnight lows will fall into the low to mid-50s, with some of the coldest valleys potentially seeing temperatures in the upper 40s. Temperatures will be 10 to 15 degrees cooler, giving the area a pleasant preview of autumn.
208 AM EDT Mon Aug 25 2025 A cold front completes its passage through the area late tonight. High pressure builds behind the front, supplying predominantly dry and refreshingly cool weather. A cold front pushes east of the Appalachians early this morning, ending any lingering precipitation and ushering in a significantly drier airmass. With the high pressure moving overhead, expect near calm flow, mostly clear skies and dense river valley fog development each morning. Refreshing afternoon temperatures will range from the low to upper 70s across the lowlands, and low 70s to lower 60s northeast mountains. High pressure remains in control for several days into the weekend. This will encourage high temperatures to reach the low 80s once again in the Tri-State area, returning us to a more seasonable pattern for this time of year.
Highs will struggle into the low to mid 70s for the most part, with a couple spots perhaps even failing to reach 70 - well below normal for late August.
840 PM PDT Sun Aug 24 2025 * Showers and thunderstorms capable of producing gusty outflow winds and flash flooding will continue into the evening, with the highest risk for thunderstorms and impacts in Inyo County through the Southern Great Basin.
1150 PM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025 - Monday will be the coolest day this week with morning lows in the upper 40s to low 50s and afternoon highs in the low 70s.
Temperatures along the Island Chain are in the lower to mid 80s with the cool spot being the Big Pine Key RAWS which is observing 77 degrees. Deep mean layer ridging remains anchored across the central Atlantic with the western flank of this ridge trying to nudge its way into the Keys. The forecast for the next few days will be dominated by weak surface ridging.
Monday-Tuesday: A blocked synoptic pattern, broadly characterized by ridging aloft over the western CONUS and troughing aloft over the eastern CONUS, will persist through Tuesday.
- An active pattern across the Southern Plains will lead to increasing rain chances later this week along with some intermittent cooler weather. Otherwise the rest of tonight should be quiet with temperatures falling into the low/mid 70s. The frontal boundary will sag southward through the day Tuesday, but mid level ridging will also nudge eastward into North Texas and will likely squash any additional widespread convective initiation attempts. High temperatures will top out in the mid 90s on Monday but should be several degrees cooler on Tuesday with readings in the low to mid 80s north of I-20 and upper 80s to low 90s south of I-20.
This will keep the region cooler than average with scattered to broken daytime cumulus, although the sprinkles we saw yesterday afternoon look like they will stay to the east. Temperatures warm back up to seasonal values for the later half of the work week as ridging builds in. Winds NW in the afternoon before flipping to S/SW as high pressure passes over the area late in the eveing towards the end of the TAF period.
211 AM EDT Mon Aug 25 2025 Cooler with scattered showers and a few thunderstorms possible today.
327 AM EDT Mon Aug 25 2025 * Early fall wx starts today with westerly wind bringing in cooler, drier air * Mainly dry for all week.
219 AM CDT Mon Aug 25 2025 Forecast discussion for routine morning forecast issuance - Early fall temperatures are expected early this week with cooler temperatures.
- High temperatures will remain in the mid 90s inland and the lower 90s over the coasts on Monday. Heat indices will be in the lower 100s.
1049 PM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025 Updated aviation portion for 06Z TAF issuance - First glimpse of early fall expected early this week with cooler temperatures.
* The greatest chances for flooding will take place today and Tuesday, with the highest risk for flash flooding over urban areas and burn scars such as the Davis and Connor.
A cold front has pushed into northeastern Alabama extending through the Birmingham area roughly. Though this cold front will move further south, the really dry and cooler air is still behind a post-frontal trough axis moving south through northern Tennessee. This much drier and cooler air will move south into the region overnight into Monday morning. The very dry air and post-frontal trough axis should push further south into central or southern Alabama during the day.
After a fairly quiet start to the day, scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop this afternoon into early evening, with the highest PoPs being north of Alligator Alley where PWAT values around 2 inches and deeper moisture is expected. High temps on Tuesday will be in the low to middle 90s.
The high temperatures also modestly decrease a few degrees with a few spots reaching into the upper 60s for low temperatures.
1239 AM EDT Mon Aug 25 2025 - Cooler weather ahead with highs mid 60s to low 70s Mon-Tue.
Forecast: Cold front has pushed through the metro this morning and is currently slowly moving south into central Georgia. Aloft, very deep, broad trough for August is over the eastern CONUS that is responsible for the cold front pushing into the CWA. Across north Georgia into the metro, expect highs to only get into the low to mid 80s. Front pushes through area this evening into overnight, bringing lows in the lower to mid 60s across north and central Georgia (and 50s in more elevated locations. Tuesday sees yet another wave within the upper level trough dig towards the CWA. This will bring yet another reinforcement of the cooler, drier air across our area.
208 AM EDT Mon Aug 25 2025 A noticeably cooler air mass will move into the region today and linger throughout most of the week. Key Messages: * Cooler and drier air moving into the Northeast US most of this week with on and off lake effect rain showers.
Updated at 1129 PM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025 - The effects of a cold front will be felt starting Monday afternoon, bringing a few showers and our first taste of fall weather.
(Today through Tuesday) The cold front is moving through Central AL early this morning. This will lead to a slightly cooler and drier air mass across the area today and tomorrow. Overnight lows will drop into the low to mid 60s tonight with highs on Tuesday upper 70s in the north to mid 80s in the south. However, with very limited moisture return behind this initial cold front, widespread rain is not expected.
Latest BUFKIT soundings continue to show dry air in the low levels which should keep things dry to maybe an isolated chance for a sprinkle. Winds will go light and variable tonight as surface ridging slides into the area.
An upper level trough will dig southward through midweek. This will send a cold front into the area today, reaching the northern Gulf by Tuesday morning.
Showers and storms expected to become much more widespread behind a cold front later today across the Panhandle and Oklahoma, with the cold front getting a stronger push south later today.
438 AM EDT Mon Aug 25 2025 * Early fall wx starts today with westerly wind bringing in cooler, drier air * Mainly dry for all week.
Isolated sprinkles and showers persist mainly across southern Lake Michigan and into northwest Indiana as of 815 pm, in association with a mid-level short wave trough transiting the area and low-level instability provided by relatively warm Lake Michigan waters and the colder air aloft. It is possible that the higher waves could affect the Cook County shore and warrant a Beach Hazard Statement, but held off given expected wind and wave directions remaining west of north and the highest waves occurring overnight. The area will remain under the southwest periphery of a longwave trough drifting from eastern Ontario to across Quebec early to midweek.
The Four Corners high has gradually diminished in strength over the region, with slightly cooler temperatures today under widespread cloud cover.