Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
-There is a 20% chance for a wintry mix including light freezing drizzle Monday morning across northeast ND and northwest MN. Monday (regarding freezing drizzle in the morning): W-NW flow aloft remains in place through Monday night and allows one more progressive wave to pass near our CWA, along with a cold frontal passage. By the afternoon temperatures should be warm enough to limit impacts (above freezing). Due to the timing for sub freezing temperatures overlapping with this precip in the morning (4am-Noon), we may see a period of minor travel impacts.
1122 AM CST Sun Jan 28 2024 (Today and tonight) Mild and dry weather is expected today as upper level ridging begins to build north behind the departed upper level trough. Overnight, expecting similar temperatures to last night on the Caprock and slightly warmer temps off the Caprock with lows ranging from the upper-20s in the usual cool spots and in the upper-30s in portions of the Rolling Plains.
1235 PM EST Sun Jan 28 2024 For today, low pressure will track up the Ohio Valley until transitioning to a coastal low off the mid Atlantic and New England coasts. High pressure will then build in for Monday.
A cold front is currently cutting right across our CWA this afternoon. Visible satelitte imagery puts the prefrontal line of clouds right across the border between the Lower and Middle Keys. This is due to the associated low pressure area currently on the east side of the Ohio River Valley. As this low slides east into the western North Atlantic, it will continue to promote fresh to strong northwest breezes through Monday afternoon. Forecast lows for overnight range into the upper 50s to lower 60s with dewpoints plummeting down as low as the lower 50s.
Showers associated with a cold front have mostly moved out of the forecast area. The front has also ushered in cooler air with most areas reaching their daily high earlier this morning before the front passed. High pressure will build across the area, reinforcing the cooler/drier air. Lows tonight will be back in the low to mid 40s for most of the area, with low 50s right along the coast. Cooler temperatures hang around through the work week, with high temperatures struggling to reach upper 60s each day.
(This evening through Monday) Mild temperatures this afternoon will only make further gains on Monday as northwesterly flow aloft becomes westerly ahead of a flattening ridge. Fortunately, surface winds remain on the gentle side through tomorrow thanks to a very weak SW gradient flow east of lee troughing in NM. Other than some cirrus spilling downstream of the ridge on Monday, clear skies will prevail with lows tonight faring a bit milder under light west winds.
An upper low over WV will open up into a broader trough and shift NE through Monday. Broken to overcast low clouds continue beneath the trough across most of the area, with scattered cloudiness across the extreme SE portion of the area. Overnight lows tonight will drop into the lower 30s across the NE mountains to the lower 40s across the extreme SE. High temperatures on Monday will range from the lower 40s in the NE mountains to the lower 60s across the extreme SE.
320 PM EST Sun Jan 28 2024 A low pressure system will move off the mid Atlantic and New Coasts tonight. High pressure will then build in for Monday.
105 PM EST Sun Jan 28 2024 (Today and tonight) A cold front will finish moving across the service area between now and sunrise. Temperatures behind the front are sharply cooler. High temperatures today will run 15 to 20 degrees cooler than yesterday. This is partly due to cold air aloft beneath the upper trough over the region. This will prop up low temperatures generally in the lower 40s. With increasing high pressure and some warming aloft, we will lose the lingering strato-cumulus. Winds will relax on Monday afternoon as high pressure noses in from the west.
Once skies clear expect cool, dry and blissfully quiet weather to prevail as high pressure builds into the area.
At the surface, weak high pressure encompasses most of the Southern Plains. Attention will then turn to a western CONUS trough that medium range models have been advertising for the last several runs.
220 PM EST Sun Jan 28 2024 A dry and cooler air mass is spreading across the region with strong gusty winds.
/NEW/ /This afternoon through Monday night / A deep layer of dry air under a building ridge aloft will result in a sunny and warmer afternoon with highs ranging from the upper 50s to the mid 60s. A mostly clear sky and light wind tonight will allow temperatures to fall quickly after sunset with lows ranging from the mid 30s to the lower 40s. The good news is that temperatures will be above freezing so only minor visibility restrictions are expected. Temperatures will warm above seasonal normals with highs from the mid 60s to the lower 70s. Monday night will also be warmer than the past several nights with lows generally in the 40s.
H500 ridging will continue to build over the western CONUS eastward over the Rockies today through tomorrow. Light winds remain across the area as high pressure settles in today and tomorrow.
pdf KJAX radar shows fine line representing cold front currrently approaching the Jacksonville metro area from the NW. pdf Strong cold frontal passage still on track to push from NW to SE across the region with scattered to numerous light to moderate shower activity exiting into the Atlantic waters by the mid morning hours. Low pressure over the Mid Atlantic States will continue to intensify tonight with cold Northwest flow remaining brisk through the overnight hours with sustained winds at 10-20 mph with gusts to 25-30 mph at times. Low level moisture wrapping around the low pressure system will continue at least partly cloudy skies through the night with highest coverage of clouds across inland SE GA.
1129 AM CST Sun Jan 28 2024 * Patchy dense fog or freezing fog this morning across southeast Kansas. Along the interface of low clouds and clear skies, a transient area of dense fog/freezing fog may briefly affect some locations in southeast Kansas. An anomalously strong downstream ridge will develop across western North America, and the influence of the upper ridge will be felt across the central plains. With the upper ridge axis expected to remain over the Rockies, northwesterly flow aloft will generally remain over the central plains.
111 PM CST Sun Jan 28 2024 - Potential (40-60%) for redevelopment of fog and freezing fog tonight into early Monday morning. A strong upper level ridge continues to expand across the western US. Also of note will be the potential for freezing fog as temps look to be a few degrees colder than this morning with the HREF also showing a 40-60% chances for temps to drop below 30 degrees across the same areas.
1145 AM CST Sun Jan 28 2024 (The rest of today ) Patchy dense fog/freezing fog rapidly developed along and just east of Highway 75 from the OK/KS border to McAlester, as well as along I-44 from the Tulsa metro to Miami earlier this morning. With skies becoming mostly sunny, afternoon temperatures should warm up nicely, with widespread temperatures reaching the low-mid 50s (upper 40s for portions of far NE OK and far NW AR).
Tonight: A surface pressure trough analyzed from central SD into central NE as of noon is forecast to shift east into our area late tonight into Monday morning.
-Enriquez MORNING DISCUSSION: Large ridge begins to move into the area today which will bring a substantial warm up to the region this week. Depending on how much snowmelt moistens up the boundary layer and if the westerly breezes from today's passing warm front calm down will determine if and how much the patchy fog returns overnight. By the upcoming weekend, a pattern change will occur as the large ridge gets replaced by a large trough coming in off the West Coast. Areas of patchy freezing fog overnight into Monday morning.
(The rest of today ) Patchy dense fog/freezing fog rapidly developed along and just east of Highway 75 from the OK/KS border to McAlester, as well as along I-44 from the Tulsa metro to Miami earlier this morning. With skies becoming mostly sunny, afternoon temperatures should warm up nicely, with widespread temperatures reaching the low-mid 50s (upper 40s for portions of far NE OK and far NW AR).
These areas may be able to more effectively radiate, so temperatures should be slightly cooler, in the low 30s. Clouds should lift further Monday as the high pushes east and temperatures will remain seasonal with highs in the 50s.
(Through tonight ) Sfc ridging will increase overnight tonight which should allow for effective radiational cooling given clear skies and calm winds. Expect temps to drop to near or slightly below freezing areawide (scattered upper 20s across northern zones). As temperatures will be near/ below freezing, could see spots of freezing fog. most likely along and north of I-40 where temps below freezing are more favorable. Will hold off on issuing any headlines for the fog/ freezing fog again with uncertainty remaining regarding the coverage of dense/freezing fog. Will allow evening shift to reevaluate, but currently the highest threat appears to be along and north of I-40 for any potential advisories. With ridging in place, quiet weather prevails through the end of the work week with highs remaining in the 50s/60s.
Despite the clouds, temps have warmed into the 40s for many locations and this will become commonplace for the next few days as high pressure builds over the region. Will have to keep an eye out for overnight fog/low stratus that could linger in the lower valleys as high pressure builds sits over the region for the next few days. Tue through next Sun night An upper level ridge of high pressure for the first two days will continue the warmth and hopefully more sunshine and less fog and stratus, but the stagnant conditions make this a tough forecast, and so temperatures may be too optimistically warm. Then more snow for Sat night and Sun at the lower elevations.
1244 PM EST Sun Jan 28 2024 A dry and cooler air mass will overspread the region behind an exiting cold front today.
A cold front is quickly pushing south and east across central Florida this morning, with winds now gusting out of the west- northwest from Orlando northward. Cooler, drier air will begin to filter south with decreasing cloud cover this afternoon. A Small Craft Advisory is now in effect for the adjacent offshore waters as winds begin to increase along and behind the passing cold front. (12Z TAFS) MVFR/IFR conditions continue thru at least 18z-21z as a cold front moves across the terminals. Sct SHRA remain possible from MLB to SUA as the cold front pushes south thru 20z.
- Upper-level ridging remains over the region leading to sunny skies and warming temperatures throughout the work week. A large ridge axis continues to amplify over much of the Intermountain West and continue to progress east toward the Front Range. Underneath this ridge, quiet weather conditions will prevail with temperatures climbing into the 50s for areas east of the Laramie Range. Temperatures will be some 10 degrees cooler across Albany and Carbon county with the arrival of more overcast skies across these locations. The only mentionable weather will be in the highest peaks of the Sierra Madre where low end PoPs (15%) were maintained as some light mountain snow showers may be possible tomorrow morning. An upper-level ridge is progged to remain over the CONUS for much of the week.
Expect daytime highs generally in the upper 50s to low 60s with overnight lows generally in the low 40s.
- Quiet weather with warmer than normal temperatures will continue into early February. Clear skies and temperatures in the 40s are making for a great day in western Minnesota, while areas of dense fog and stratus continue to linger in much of eastern Minnesota and western Wisconsin with temperatures in the low 30s. The extent of how far east this cloud deck can retreat will depend on how much the low- level winds can start to mix things out. As previously mentioned, our recent stretch of moderate temperatures should limit the chance for any widespread freezing rain / ice accumulation.
Overnight lows are expected to hover around freezing along the Plateau so some snow mixing in is possible.
534 PM CST Sun Jan 28 2024 - Potential (40-60%) for redevelopment of fog and freezing fog tonight into early Monday morning. A strong upper level ridge continues to expand across the western US. Also of note will be the potential for freezing fog as temps look to be a few degrees colder than this morning with the HREF also showing a 40-60% chances for temps to drop below 30 degrees across the same areas.
529 PM CST Sun Jan 28 2024 (This evening through Monday) Mild temperatures this afternoon will only make further gains on Monday as northwesterly flow aloft becomes westerly ahead of a flattening ridge. Fortunately, surface winds remain on the gentle side through tomorrow thanks to a very weak SW gradient flow east of lee troughing in NM. Other than some cirrus spilling downstream of the ridge on Monday, clear skies will prevail with lows tonight faring a bit milder under light west winds.
944 PM EST Sun Jan 28 2024 A low pressure system will move off the mid Atlantic and New Coasts tonight. High pressure will then build in for Monday.
Upper level ridging dominates the region. Perturbations progressing through the flow aloft weaken said ridge allowing for a more westerly flow across The Continental Divide, favoring some strong gusty winds along The Northern Rocky Mountain Front.
Low clouds are spreading southeastward into the region and will keep temps a couple degrees warmer than previously forecast and that is reflected in this update. Expect daytime highs generally in the upper 50s to low 60s with overnight lows generally in the low 40s.
(This evening through Monday) Our region continues to reside under northwest flow with the upper ridge centered over the southwestern CONUS. With temperatures expected to fall below freezing over northern Oklahoma, areas of freezing fog could develop and lead to slippery bridges and overpasses. Max temperatures are forecast to rise into the 60's with somewhat cooler temperatures over north-central Oklahoma due to fog.
This is one of many factors leading to the lower confidence for next precipitation maker across eastern Montana. -Enriquez MORNING DISCUSSION: Large ridge begins to move into the area today which will bring a substantial warm up to the region this week. Depending on how much snowmelt moistens up the boundary layer and if the westerly breezes from today's passing warm front calm down will determine if and how much the patchy fog returns overnight. By the upcoming weekend, a pattern change will occur as the large ridge gets replaced by a large trough coming in off the West Coast. Areas of patchy freezing fog overnight into Monday morning.
Cool and dry conditions will prevail across Southeast Texas as high pressure dominates the local weather pattern. The lows are expected to be in the mid to upper 30s for most inland portions and in the low 40s along the coasts. Although widespread freezing temperatures are not expected, these temperatures are a few degrees above freezing. On Monday, mostly sunny skies are expected with light and variable winds as the high pressure moves across our local area. The highs will be warmer, ranging in the 60s areawide. The lows Monday night will range in the low to mid 40s.
Partial clearing may take place in far northwest AL late tonight, and this is where temperatures may even bottom out in the lower 30s. Northwest winds are varying from light to at times gusting to 15-20kt, but should also tend to diminish as high pressure edges east into the lower MS Valley.
Hourly temperatures are running slightly cooler than anticipated, but grids have already been adjusted to reflect that. Can't rule out locations having overnight lows a couple degrees below the afternoon package, but that still has most or all of the CWA above freezing. Once skies clear expect cool, dry and blissfully quiet weather to prevail as high pressure builds into the area.
(Now through Monday) An upper trough over the eastern states will move into the western Atlantic on Monday. This will place the region under a dry northwest flow aloft resulting in building high pressure at the surface. Lows tonight will range from the low to mid 30s inland to upper 30s along the coast.
Latest satellite imagery shows the cold front now located over southern Florida. Latest surface observations are showing a breezy west-northwest wind flow in the wake of this front that is ushering some cooler and drier air. The first of the cold nights is expected tonight with overnight lows dipping into the low to mid 40's over the Nature Coast and interior and low 50's over southwest Florida and near to the coast. Gusty northwest winds will will produce hazardous boating conditions for the next couple of days behind the passage of a cold front.
High pressure will be in place through the start of the week, allowing for valley inversions to build.
Cloud cover continues to overspread western Wyoming, caught in the westerly flow atop a building ridge. The strong ridge building along the Rockies will keep Wyoming weather tranquil for most of the upcoming week, bringing clearing skies and keeping warmer temperatures in place. Next chance for a change in the weather would be late this week into the weekend, as a deep trough dives along the West Coast.
-There is a 20% chance for a wintry mix including light freezing drizzle Monday morning across northeast ND and northwest MN. The low cloud and fog is well to our southeast but something to watch as it may expand west into Wadena county or Hubbard/SE Beltrami county this evening. Monday (regarding freezing drizzle in the morning): W-NW flow aloft remains in place through Monday night and allows one more progressive wave to pass near our CWA, along with a cold frontal passage. By the afternoon temperatures should be warm enough to limit impacts (above freezing). Due to the timing for sub freezing temperatures overlapping with this precip in the morning (4am-Noon), we may see a period of minor travel impacts.
507 PM CST Sun Jan 28 2024 (This evening through Monday) Our region continues to reside under northwest flow with the upper ridge centered over the southwestern CONUS. With temperatures expected to fall below freezing over northern Oklahoma, areas of freezing fog could develop and lead to slippery bridges and overpasses. Max temperatures are forecast to rise into the 60's with somewhat cooler temperatures over north-central Oklahoma due to fog.
Current satellite imagery is showing a well-formed low pressure circulation over the eastern Pacific Ocean sending moisture into the Pacific Northwest this afternoon. A broad ridge of high pressure remains over the Northern Rockies with some subtle disturbances embedded in the general flow. The ridge over the Northern Rockies will amplify through Monday. This ridge will keep most Pacific moisture to the north and split a strong subtropical jet nosing towards northern California, sending most of the upper level energy to the south.
900 PM EST Sun Jan 28 2024 A dry and cooler air mass is spreading across the region.
This is one of many factors leading to the lower confidence for next precipitation maker across eastern Montana. -Enriquez MORNING DISCUSSION: Large ridge begins to move into the area today which will bring a substantial warm up to the region this week. Depending on how much snowmelt moistens up the boundary layer and if the westerly breezes from today's passing warm front calm down will determine if and how much the patchy fog returns overnight. By the upcoming weekend, a pattern change will occur as the large ridge gets replaced by a large trough coming in off the West Coast. DISCUSSION: Areas of patchy freezing fog will be possible along the milk and missouri River Valleys but curretly do not look like they will impact the terminals directly.
523 PM CST Sun Jan 28 2024 (Through tonight ) Sfc ridging will increase overnight tonight which should allow for effective radiational cooling given clear skies and calm winds. Expect temps to drop to near or slightly below freezing areawide (scattered upper 20s across northern zones). As temperatures will be near/ below freezing, could see spots of freezing fog. most likely along and north of I-40 where temps below freezing are more favorable. Will hold off on issuing any headlines for the fog/ freezing fog again with uncertainty remaining regarding the coverage of dense/freezing fog. Will allow evening shift to reevaluate, but currently the highest threat appears to be along and north of I-40 for any potential advisories. With ridging in place, quiet weather prevails through the end of the work week with highs remaining in the 50s/60s.
/Issued 1108 AM CST Sun Jan 28 2024/ /This afternoon through Monday night / A deep layer of dry air under a building ridge aloft will result in a sunny and warmer afternoon with highs ranging from the upper 50s to the mid 60s. A mostly clear sky and light wind tonight will allow temperatures to fall quickly after sunset with lows ranging from the mid 30s to the lower 40s. The good news is that temperatures will be above freezing so only minor visibility restrictions are expected. Temperatures will warm above seasonal normals with highs from the mid 60s to the lower 70s. Monday night will also be warmer than the past several nights with lows generally in the 40s.
531 PM CST Sun Jan 28 2024 (Tonight through Monday night) Key Messages: - Patchy fog overnight Ridging aloft and at the surface will maintain dry and pleasant conditions across South Texas through the short-term range. However, based on the latest guidance projected amount of moisture available in the lower levels, it may be mostly shallow and it should lift by the mid morning hours on Monday as the grounds begin to warm. Lows tonight will generally range from the mid to upper 30s into the low to mid 40s areawide. Monday will be warmer as the flow becomes more onshore during the day. Monday night lows will run a few degrees warmer than tonight, but still in the 40s range.
707 PM CST Sun Jan 28 2024 (This afternoon through Monday) The upper level longwave trough axis is currently passing through the Deep South with northwest flow from the surface to 700mb. The potent upper level low is currently centered over the central Appalachians, with just enough lingering lift and moisture to produce occasional drizzle. Chilly temperatures can be expected as a result as highs only top out in the 40s and lower 50s, with gusty winds between 20 and 25mph making conditions feel even cooler. Low temperatures will be chilly in the 30s, but we're not expected to reach the freezing mark due to the persistent cloudcover and mixed boundary layer.
Low cloud cover from this low extends back southwest towards the Mississippi River.
Thus lows won't drop too much overnight with min temps in the low to mid 30s. Overnight lows are expected to hover around freezing along the Plateau so some snow mixing in is possible.
633 PM EST Sun Jan 28 2024 A low pressure system will move off the mid Atlantic and New Coasts tonight. High pressure will then build in for Monday.
231 AM EST Mon Jan 29 2024 Dry and breezy weather will continue through today as high pressure builds in from the west.
(Today and tonight) An unseasonably warm late January day will take place today as an upper level ridge axis slowly progresses eastward across the Intermountain West. A sharp but weak upper level short wave trough will drop southward through the Central Plains today. We will see weak surface lee troughing in eastern New Mexico leading to weak downsloping southwesterly surface winds in West Texas.
High pressure builds overhead this afternoon and tonight will provide quiet weather through Tuesday. A weak low pressure dropping south through the Great Lakes may bring some spotty light precipitation Tuesday night.