Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Satellite and webcam observations show that an area of light snow has established over northeastern Oregon this evening along the front edge of an arctic trough. As the trough continues to move southward overnight, some of the hi-res models are now indicating this area of light snow will traverse through portions of south-eastern Oregon through Tuesday morning.
This boundary will linger roughly in the same region today and tonight before transitioning to a cold front and sweeping through the BRO CWFA on Wednesday. Despite the approach and passage of the cold front, dry weather is anticipated for Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley through the entire period. In fact, daytime highs in the low to mid 90s are possible on Wednesday due to a downslope effect from the higher terrain in neighboring Mexico in advance of the Wednesday frontal passage. Finally, building seas along the Lower Texas Coast, especially tonight and Wednesday, will result in a Moderate Risk of rip currents at the local beaches at that time.
Gusty winds behind the cold front drop wind chill values into the teens this afternoon. A cold front passing through the CWA has kept northerly winds stout from 10 to 20 mph sustained with gusts to around 25 mph near the Nebraska border thus far. With forecast highs in the 20s to low 30s, wind chills are expected to drop to the low teens by late afternoon as colder air continues to filter southward this evening. The highest confidence for this to occur is generally along and north of I-70. Given the higher snow ratios and drier snowfall, some blowing and drifting snow is anticipated.
Currently - A narrow Atlantic ridge stretches westward to the Florida Peninsula, resulting in gentle easterly breezes across the Keys this morning. The lower through mid level ridge remains planted across our area while the flow aloft is zonal. Forecast - The ridge across Florida will be reinforced by another high emerging off the Atlantic Coast over the next couple of days. Lower to mid level ridging will hold on for a bit longer helping to keep rain potential very limited. A mid latitude trough will swing through the eastern United States through the second half of the week.
However, today into tonight a longwave trough will dig from the northern Rockies into the western High Plains. A brief period of freezing rain may affect the extreme southern portion of the forecast area tomorrow morning where light icing and may limit total closer to 4 to 6 inches. Snow will look to exit the area from west to east late tomorrow afternoon into tomorrow evening and the upper level trough swings through the area.
Additional accumulations between 1-3 inches will be possible with the highest totals expected along the Hwy-20 corridor.
- A significant winter storm is expected to bring a wintry mix of snow, sleet, and freezing rain to the area Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night. a mix in the northwest (initial watch area near Lake MI), where the precipitation type may end up either all snow or a mix of snow/sleet (more freezing rain potential as you continue south and eastward). It's possible that we see more of a sleet/snow mix in the area of the expansion, with freezing rain becoming more likely as you head closer to US 24. If we get more freezing rain initially, then it becomes snow covered and the Wed evening and Thu morning commutes could be difficult. Additionally, there is potential for some light snow in the far northwest this morning into the early afternoon as a decaying cold front sinks southeastward.
- Light glaze of ice accumulation due to freezing drizzle, late this evening before an turnover to snow after midnight (southern tier of counties).
Snowfall amounts of a couple tenths will ne possible near I-90 with the highest totals expected along the Hwy-20 corridor where 1-3" will be more common.
1213 PM PST Tue Feb 11 2025 A cold front will pass through Northeastern Nevada this afternoon into this evening, resulting in isolated snow showers.
This boundary will be the primary focus for precipitation when the upper trough moves across late tonight and Wednesday morning. Forecast soundings are very moist in the lowest levels and thus expect overcast conditions with some fog possible, especially along the coast. Mostly clear and cooler conditions can be expected Wednesday Night in the wake of a weak cold frontal boundary.
- The highest threat for freezing rain remains centered just north of the I-70 corridor, with amounts around a tenth inch or so expected. However, the highest snow amounts are now more favored from southern Iowa to the Illinois/Wisconsin border. On the ice front, placement of freezing rain and sleet still appears most likely near and just north of I-70.
(Rest of today through Wednesday) The overall synoptic pattern is highlighted by elongated troughing that stretches across the central CONUS towards the eastern US and Mostly dry and a re-amplifying ridge over South Florida and the Caribbean. As the day progresses and we approach the evening into tonight, the frontal boundary will push further northward and allow the ridge to expand further across the area. In terms of temperatures, the prevailing high pressure will keep afternoon highs on the rise each day to further above normal climatology (likely 3-5 degrees above normal on Wednesday and potentially higher later in the week). Today, highs are expected in the low to mid 80s across all parts of South Florida.
Temperatures are in the lower 80s. Through the rest of the week, another high pressure will reinforce the ridging across Florida resulting in winds shifting southeasterly and slightly increasing. Winds will slacken as a trough moves off the East Coast early this weekend and with that winds will increase.
Outside of these locations, expect single digits above zero with some continued stratus likely to remain in this area keeping temps a little bit warmer, but still quite cold.
Another day of mostly sunny skies is occurring for the Florida Keys! Temperatures across the island chain are currently in the upper 70s and will climb into the lower 80s this afternoon. From synopsis, high pressure over the western North Atlantic will be reinforced by a continental high over the next couple of days, resulting in modest freshening of increasingly southeasterly breezes. A trough will drive off the east coast through the second half of the work week resulting in winds trending downwards.
Temperatures will be warm enough for mostly rain for much of the region with freezing rain and sleet possible for portions of SEMO, and southern Illinois.
Generally, though, the forecast area is expected to remain dry under high pressure and existing on the northern edge of a system that is moving through the central plains. An upper trough and another arctic high slide in from the northwest on Wednesday. Winds will be lighter through Wednesday evening across the north under the high.
Snowfall amounts of a couple tenths will be possible near I-90 with the highest totals expected along the Hwy-20 corridor where 1-3" will be more common.
- The highest threat for freezing rain remains centered just north of the I-70 corridor, with amounts around a tenth inch or so expected. First of the 00Z models are rolling in and continue to support the lower snow totals as forecasted by the previous shift. Both also indicate a sharp cutoff on the southeast side of the system (near I-70 per the HRRR and near a Shelbyville to Danville line per the NAM) where some sleet and freezing rain will cut down on snow totals. However, the highest snow amounts are now more favored from southern Iowa to the Illinois/Wisconsin border. On the ice front, placement of freezing rain and sleet still appears most likely near and just north of I-70.
614 PM EST Tue Feb 11 2025 (Rest of today through Wednesday) The overall synoptic pattern is highlighted by elongated troughing that stretches across the central CONUS towards the eastern US and Mostly dry and a re-amplifying ridge over South Florida and the Caribbean. As the day progresses and we approach the evening into tonight, the frontal boundary will push further northward and allow the ridge to expand further across the area. In terms of temperatures, the prevailing high pressure will keep afternoon highs on the rise each day to further above normal climatology (likely 3-5 degrees above normal on Wednesday and potentially higher later in the week). Today, highs are expected in the low to mid 80s across all parts of South Florida.
These rates will cause low visibilities along with slick conditions with temperatures in the low to mid 20s.
Temperatures are expected to remain well below freezing throughout Wednesday.
From synopsis, high pressure over the western North Atlantic will be reinforced by a continental high over the next couple of days, resulting in modest freshening of increasingly southeasterly breezes. A trough will dive off the East Coast through the second half of the work week resulting in winds trending downwards.
1228 AM EST Wed Feb 12 2025 (Rest of today through Wednesday) The overall synoptic pattern is highlighted by elongated troughing that stretches across the central CONUS towards the eastern US and Mostly dry and a re-amplifying ridge over South Florida and the Caribbean. As the day progresses and we approach the evening into tonight, the frontal boundary will push further northward and allow the ridge to expand further across the area. In terms of temperatures, the prevailing high pressure will keep afternoon highs on the rise each day to further above normal climatology (likely 3-5 degrees above normal on Wednesday and potentially higher later in the week). Today, highs are expected in the low to mid 80s across all parts of South Florida.
This low will eject into the Ohio Valley passing near Cleveland with the associated deformation driving widespread snow across the CWA.
- Windy and warmer Wednesday afternoon. Patchy fog and mist will continue through the morning hours as the low levels remain saturated. Otherwise, the main challenge today will the timing of a strong cold front and its impact on temperatures for this afternoon. However, if the front speeds up then highs will be much cooler than what is reflected in the forecast.
Arctic high pressure will build over Kansas tonight and center itself over central Kansas on Thursday with very cold temperatures and bitter cold wind chills in the morning.
- Much colder weather is expected Wednesday night and Thursday behind a strong cold front.
And a weak warm frontogenesis signal oriented roughly from around the Ulysses/Elkhart area northeast toward the Dodge City to Larned areas. With the movement of the trough/forcing and the signals from the HRRR, the greater snow rates, a broad area of 1-1.
718 AM EST Wed Feb 12 2025 High pressure will continue to dominate through Thursday, keeping warm and humid conditions while it lingers. A transition is on the horizon, though as a cold front will move into north Florida Thursday afternoon.
- Windy and warmer Wednesday afternoon. An upper trough will drop southeast across the Rockies tonight, and a disturbance moving around the base of this trough will lift northeast over our area. The aforementioned upper trough will swing east into the Plains on Wednesday. Meanwhile, a fairly strong cold front will push south across the Big Country in the afternoon. Expect the warmest highs, in the lower to mid 70s, to be in our far southern counties.
The Wood River Basin will also be struck with heavy snow, on the order of 4 inches in the lower elevations like Carey to up to 20 inches on ridges. This means some rain at the lower elevations that could reduce the snowpack, but it will still be significant and by far the heaviest snow of this winter (so far).
- Fog and freezing fog could be dense at times this morning.
621 AM EST Wed Feb 12 2025 (Today through Thursday) A low-pressure system is forecast to form over the Ohio Valley today, pushing a cold front across the southeastern US through the short-term period.
Temperatures are "warmer" and the system is expected to produce rain for much of the area. There still may be an early mix of freezing rain from roughly Wayne County MO northeastward to Perry IL and points westward.
Adjusted POPS and weather through 6 PM, with mainly a mention of light snow and some freezing drizzle across the far west. Temperatures will continue to hold steady or slowly climb overnight, as the low tracks to our west. Most areas likely to be at freezing or just a bit above by sunrise on Thursday. Model guidance supports 1035+mb high pressure moving over the region on Valentine's Day.
(This evening through Thursday) Mostly cloudy skies continue across much of West Central Texas through Thursday morning, with lingering cloud cover from this morning unable to fully dissipate and now being enhanced by the cold front currently tracking from north to south across the Concho Valley and Heartland.
Adjusted POPS and weather through 6 PM, with mainly a mention of light snow and some freezing drizzle across the far west. Temperatures will continue to hold steady or slolwy climb overnight, as the low tracks to our west. Most areas likely to be at freezing or just a bit above by sunrise on Thursday. Model guidance supports 1035+mb high pressure moving over the region on Valentine's Day.
228 PM CST Wed Feb 12 2025 Tonight: Storms exit the area late this evening from west to east with cooler air moving in behind. Freezing temperatures are possible in southeast Arkansas.
(This afternoon through Thursday) A broad Bermuda ridge continues to be the dominant synoptic feature, as South Florida is encompassed within the southwest quadrant of this expansive upper high. Thursday will feature a very similar setup, with little day-to-day deviation compared to today, though a bit warmer with subtle veering of surface winds. Afternoon maximum temperatures will reach the low/upper 80s along the east coast/interior-SW Florida. Also dewpoints will reach the low to mid 70s for much of the region, rendering the area to feel more like April/May as opposed to what one may typically expect in February.
Strong ridging to our south and a front to our north is helping to keep us in a very warm and moist environment for the next couple of days with highs near record breaking today and Thursday.
- Much colder weather is expected tonight and Thursday behind a strong cold front.
A longwave trough, with its axis along the Rockies, entrenches the western half of the country, with a dominant ridge to its east, slowly progressing eastward. Meanwhile, at the surface, a stationary front extends from the Gulf coast northeastward to off the Carolina coastline, with an expansive area of high pressure extending from southwest of the Azores westward to the Florida Peninsula. A "rinse and repeat" forecast on tap for today, with highs climbing to near 80F, dew points in the lower 70s, and nil rain chances. Small Craft Should Exercise Caution in the Straits of Florida east of the Seven Mile Bridge.
This boundary is expected to slowly sag SE towards the coast, brining cooler and drier air in from behind. Lows for tonight will cool into the 30s across the Brazos Valley and Piney Woods (a few locations may reach subfreezing temperatures).
1226 PM EST Wed Feb 12 2025 (This afternoon through Thursday) A broad Bermuda ridge continues to be the dominant synoptic feature, as South Florida is encompassed within the southwest quadrant of this expansive upper high. Thursday will feature a very similar setup, with little day-to-day deviation compared to today, though a bit warmer with subtle veering of surface winds. Afternoon maximum temperatures will reach the low/upper 80s along the east coast/interior-SW Florida. Also dewpoints will reach the low to mid 70s for much of the region, rendering the area to feel more like April/May as opposed to what one may typically expect in February.
Reported temperatures across the Island Chain are around 80F at this mid- afternoon hour, with dew points generally in the lower 70s. A mid- and upper-level anticyclone that has domed over the Florida Peninsula over the past several days will slowly progress eastward, as a longwave trough over the West Coast and Midwest slowly slides eastward. Despite the eastward progression of the ridge, the ridge will also strengthen. Meanwhile, at the surface, high pressure in the North Atlantic will be reinforced by a continental high building across the East Coast late this week and into the weekend.
By Thu afternoon the upper trough will be tracking across the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley and across the Eastern Seaboard Thu night. Any weak upper ridging over the Plains will be short-lived as our next piece of energy starts to dig across Southern CA by Fri morning. Our next upper trough will track across the Desert Southwest on Fri night and will swing out across the Southern Plains on Sat.
- Very warm today, followed by much cooler conditions tonight and Thursday behind a front. Tonight, temperatures will cool into the low 40s to mid 50s in the wake of the front. Highs tomorrow are forecast to range from the low 50s up north to the low 60s along the coast.
A brief changeover to sleet and freezing rain is possible in parts of southeast Missouri and southern Illinois but no impacts are anticipated.
(This evening through Thursday Night) Showers and embedded thunderstorms continue to push east through the region this afternoon along a cold front. But, I don't believe this threat will last this long, as the cold front and storms should be out of the region just before sunset. In wake of the rain and frontal boundary, northerly winds will bring in a much drier and cooler airmass to the region. Overnight lows tonight will range from the low 20s in our northern zones, to the upper 30s in the southern areas. Expect drier and cooler conditions on Thursday, with some peaks of sunshine, as highs will struggle to reach 50 degrees. The cooler conditions will continue into Thursday night, but we should see slightly warmer conditions, as overnight lows will range from the upper 20s north to upper 30s south.
Low pressure crossing the mid sections of Kentucky will track north-northeast into Ohio this evening. Ahead of the low, moisture will be wrung out over the CWA ahead of a cold front extending southwest from this low. As the system continues to pass to the northeast, the trailing cold front will cross the CWA to the east overnight, closer to daybreak along the WV/VA border. Overnight lows will range from the lower to mid 30s in the western and northwestern halves of the CWA, upper 30s to around 40 closer to the VA and WV borders. A ridge of high pressure will nose into eastern Kentucky from the west.
551 PM CST Wed Feb 12 2025 Tonight: Storms exit the area late this evening from west to east with cooler air moving in behind. Freezing temperatures are possible in southeast Arkansas.
1128 PM CST Wed Feb 12 2025 Tonight: Storms exit the area late this evening from west to east with cooler air moving in behind. Freezing temperatures are possible in southeast Arkansas.
1026 PM CST Wed Feb 12 2025 Updated at 1023 PM CST Wed Feb 12 2025 - Freezing fog and snow flurries are expected across the southern South Plains tonight.
Deep mean layer ridging remains in place across the western North Atlantic with the western periphery of this ridge extending westward into Florida. The lower levels of the atmosphere are a bit more saturated than they have been in the previous nights. The ridge will then retreat eastward, as a mid- latitude trough pushes off the East Coast.
950 PM CST Wed Feb 12 2025 Updated at 950 PM CST Wed Feb 12 2025 - Freezing fog and snow flurries are expected across the southern South Plains tonight.
Then, the potential for fog increases close to sunrise with the highest chances near LAL and PGD. As a cold front approaches tomorrow evening, the potential for fog increases.
259 AM EST Thu Feb 13 2025 - Lake Effect Snow Showers Today - Additional Snow Expected This Weekend, Then Cold - Lake Effect Snow Showers Today The widespread synoptic snowfall has come to a close this morning as the low-pressure system responsible pulls away from the region.
Highs today will mostly range in the low to mid 50s areawide. Although rain chances inland will remain minimal through the rest of the period (<25%), these will increase over the marine zones tonight through Friday as a coastal trough transitions over the waters (PoPs 30-60%).
Today will be cloudy and cool with daytime highs significantly cooler than yesterday's record high temperatures. Overrunning conditions will keep the CWA well below normal today with highs generally in the low to mid 50s. Therefore, will lean towards the cooler NAM25 and Consshort for temperatures through much of the period. A coastal trough is expected to develop this evening as overrunning conditions continue. The coastal trough/low will move northward Friday afternoon with rain chances decreasing through the day. Slightly warmer on Friday with highs in the upper 50s to around 60 degrees.
- A wintry mix of sleet, freezing rain, and snow is looking increasingly likely (15-30%) Friday morning into the early afternoon.
- Snow begins around midday Friday with the highest amounts northeast.
Currently - A robust Atlantic ridge stretching westward past the Florida Peninsula is resulting in moderate southeasterly breezes across the Keys this morning. The Keys remain within the western flank of the lower to mid level ridge which often results in some lower level lift. Forecast - The surface through lower level ridge will pull back into the Atlantic today as a mid latitude trough swings through the east coast. Some relief in temperatures and humidity is expected beginning Friday as a strong high cell pushes out to sea behind the departing trough. This next high will push out into the Atlantic through the weekend as another mid latitude trough swings into the eastern United States.
A brief reprieve from rainy conditions is expected for today and tomorrow as general post-frontal conditions and ridging dictates the meteorological conditions for the forecast area.
537 AM CST Thu Feb 13 2025 Updated at 524 AM CST Thu Feb 13 2025 - Freezing fog and snow flurries are expected across the southwestern South Plains early this morning.
649 AM EST Thu Feb 13 2025 - Lake Effect Snow Showers Today - Additional Snow Expected This Weekend, Then Cold - Lake Effect Snow Showers Today The widespread synoptic snowfall has come to a close this morning as the low-pressure system responsible pulls away from the region. - Additional Snow Expected This Weekend, Then Cold A brief break in the snow is expected Friday due to surface and upper-level ridging Friday before snow returns Friday Night.
At the surface, high pressure currently over the region is responsible for very cold temperatures this morning. The high will get pushed eastward today as low pressure slides across the Rockies. The low will become centered over Wyoming by late tonight, with a warm front extending from it and becoming splayed from southwest to northeast across South Dakota by Friday morning. Will see some warmer temperatures on Friday, especially south of the boundary. As the low drops southward to eastern Colorado on Friday, the boundary will become more north/south oriented over eastern South Dakota, and looks to become the focus for precipitation.
Also we extended the winter weather advisory in northern Douglas County another hour due to reports of freezing precipitation as of 8 am pst. Warmer air will move into the area withing the hour with temperatures rising above freezing. There is a relative lull in precipitation behind the initial surge of warm advection that moved through last night, but low pressure offshore will send more precipitation back over the area this afternoon and tonight with higher snow levels (generally 3500-4500 feet). The low moves onshore Friday morning and precipitation should end in most areas from west to east. Low pressure will move through the waters today bringing unsettled weather with periods of rain, gusty south winds and steep to, at times, very steep seas. The low will move onshore and inland tonight into Friday.