Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Closed upper-low over MO will work eastward towards the Ohio Valley today and start to open up as it interacts with a positive tilted trough working out of the Great Lakes and into the Ohio Valley. A sfc cold front will also be dropping south towards the Ohio River out of Indiana during the day as well. Ahead of the approaching cold front, instability will increase to between 1500-2000 J/kg in the afternoon and model soundings show steepening mid/low-level lapse rates as well as about 25-35 knots of deep layer shear. Activity will also diminish from the NW-SE as the upper trough and associated sfc cold front push through to our south. Tomorrow looks to be a mainly dry but cooler day as highs will go from the low/mid 70s today to the mid/upper 60s with a few low 70s on Friday.
901 AM EDT Thu May 8 2025 A cold front will progress south through the Ohio Valley Today, bringing showers and thunderstorms especially near and south of the Ohio River this afternoon and into the early evening before the front sinks into the Tennessee Valley, bringing cool and dry weather for Friday. Warmer conditions return this weekend. The northern boundary will slowly sink south as a cold front later today. South of the front will be warmer and more humid with highs reaching into the 70s. On Friday evening, an upper trough / closed low will be moving east through Pennsylvania.
It is likely that some of the immediate coastal areas remain near or just above freezing but subfreezing readings will be likely in those counties just inland. high pressure overhead resulting in lots of sunshine.
High pressure will result in above normal temperatures through the weekend.
Showers and a few thunderstorms continue to linger across southeast Missouri and southern Illinois this afternoon under the influence of a slowly moving mid to upper level low.
Temperatures will again be warm along the I-20 corridor and south, trending in the low 80's.
Isolated lingering showers will be possible throughout the morning hours with the remaining activity tapering off heading into the afternoon the mid/upper level low shifts downstream of our area over the ArkLaTex. Cooler and drier air continues to filter in to bring more benign weather Friday night into the early weekend.
Northerly wind will be breezy tomorrow keeping highs on the cooler side from the upper 70s north and in the 80s elsewhere.
High pressure will maintain trend conditions warmer and drier through the first half of the weekend.
258 PM EDT Thu May 8 2025 Cold front slowly crosses the mid-Atlantic late this afternoon through Friday morning.
At the surface, weak low pressure was noted near Pensacola with a frontal boundary over our outer coastal waters. The upper trough along the Arizona-New Mexico border this morning will move eastward to about the Sabine River by midday Friday and begin to close off a mid-level low. High temperatures will rebound somewhat today, with most areas getting to the lower-middle 80s.
1142 AM MDT Thu May 8 2025 - Warmer weather moves into the forecast area on Thursday and continues into the weekend.
The upper low was slowing over over the OH river valley per the 18Z water vapor imagery with a weak perturbation rotating around the back side of the low across northeast KS. Weak ridging remained over the northern plains and into the desert southwest. Surface obs showed high pressure over the Great Lakes with a ridge axis extending southwest into the central and southern high plains. Think this is most likely to be in the low lying areas near bodies of water like the KS river valley.
An area of high pressure will result in above normal temperatures.
A cold front passes overnight into Friday morning then mainly dry through the weekend. Isolated to scattered coverage of showers have begun to sprout within the lower Ohio Valley and the Central Appalachians this afternoon in the midst of an encroaching cold front. This should then scatter out as an afternoon cumulus deck as high pressure begins to settle into the Ohio Valley. Temperatures will stumble down into the 50s and 60s as highs on Friday in the wake of the cold front. High pressure will build in for the weekend, with dry, and mild conditions across the area.
Another passing upper level system and upper trough nearing from the west was helping to fire scattered thunderstorms.
To the east we have an upper level trough that will dive down over the Mississippi Valley and become a large scale cutoff low that lingers for the next several days. This will keep the large scale high pressure stalled over the western CONUS. We'll be in the low 70s today as a result of this stalled out upper low, keeping that much warmer air pushed off to the west. As far as precipitation tomorrow, since the trough will be transitioning into a closed low, there's a little bit of a wave that may clip the eastern Panhandles in the afternoon, that could trigger a pop up shower or storm.
Surface ridging with subsidence and drying this afternoon will continue into tonight with decreasing winds. This will allow good radiational cooling conditions and, with dew points dropping into the 20s overnight, air temperatures should fall below freezing across much of the northern interior zones and into the lower to mid 30s elsewhere.
Inland SELA and southern MS are experiencing much more pleasant weather compared to 24 hrs ago thanks to weak surface ridging on the north side of the boundary. Non-typical west-to-east orientation of upper trough axis just north of the CWA looks to dig south toward the Gulf of America on Friday. PVA on the southeastern side of the pivoting trough translates to pressure falls at the surface and some form of frontogenesis in the northeastern Gulf.
The closed upper level low that brought rain to the area yesterday through this morning opened into an open wave today with upper level troughing extending from the eastern Great Lakes into the local area.
The highest coverage exists just southwest of the forecast area, and there actually have been a few lightning strikes in that area.
Water vapor imagery shows the once cutoff low associated with the previously mentioned front over the Ohio Valley with an expansive area of upper ridging over the western and central US. The upper ridge will spill into the middle Mississippi Valley tonight, acting to kick the upper low east of here with a portion of it becoming pinched off and shunted toward the Gulf coast.
1105 AM MDT Thu May 8 2025 - Warm today, with some afternoon showers and thunderstorms over the higher terrain.
Tonight, the high pressure system will elongate into a surface pressure ridge while getting pushed southward toward the Great Lakes. Overnight lows should range from the lower 30s near the Wisconsin state line and Kankakee River Valley to the upper 30s to around 40 in the Chicago metropolitan area and near/south of US-24.
Winds return to the south for the weekend as upper ridging builds over the Plains.
1224 PM CDT Thu May 8 2025 (Today through Friday Night) Latest satellite imagery indicates an upper low, centered near the four state area. During this forecast period, the upper low will move to the south-southeast.
Weak cold front moved through our CWA overnight, and today will be sunny with breezy northwest winds this afternoon.
Composite afternoon synoptic surface analysis places the axis of a low-level ridge bisecting the Florida Peninsula, with a stationary front draped across the Tennessee Valley. This pattern has become progressively amplified over the past several days, with a strongly positively tilted trough axis extending from the state of Texas northeastward into New England. Closer to home, the Florida Keys remain dominated by dry low- and mid-level dry air and tropospheric ridging. The aforementioned ridging will continue to reign supreme for another 36-48 hours locally.
Departing upper low is over MO/IL as of midday and becomes absorbed by the upper low in the northeast U. into tonight leaving upper ridging continuing to move into the area into Friday. At the surface, a Great Lakes high pressure also continues to move into the region into Friday keeping conditions dry and increasingly warmer. Have continued previous trend of decreasing afternoon dew points and warming high temperatures this afternoon and again on Friday with warmest temperatures on Friday in the northwest closest to the thermal ridge where highs reach into the low to mid 80s. Little change in the dry/increasingly warmer conditions is expected into the weekend with upper ridging remaining in place as an upper low churns over the Gulf Coast area.
Issued 309 PM CDT Thu May 8 2025 Tonight through Friday night: The gusty northeast winds will diminish quickly this evening as high pressure wedges into the region.
403 PM EDT Thu May 8 2025 Strong Canadian high pressure will build south across the Great Lakes as a cold front exits this evening.
236 PM CDT Thu May 8 2025 Afternoon radar/satellite imagery clearly shows a broad circulation in place surrounding an H500 cyclone in position just to the northeast of Arkansas. H500 ridging is expected to build in the coming days from the SW US toward the Upper Mississippi Valley. This ridge will struggle to advance much farther SE toward Arkansas thanks to a trailing cutoff H500 low expected to meander about the Lower Mississippi Valley through this weekend.
739 PM EDT Thu May 8 2025 An area of low pressure aloft will bring cooler temperatures to the region through Friday, with periodic chances for showers mainly across the interior areas. The western edge of the precipitation probably gets to about the Genesee Valley with the highest probabilities for our area across the eastern Lake Ontario region with the heaviest rainfall amounts likely east of Interstate-81. Ongoing rain across the eastern Lake Ontario region will gradually pull east as the support from the low exits the area Friday night.
Expect widespread freezing to sub-freezing temperatures across northern MI. Warmer on Friday, with very dry conditions anticipated leading to elevated fire danger. It is likely that some of the immediate coastal areas remain near or just above freezing but subfreezing readings will be likely in those counties just inland. high pressure overhead resulting in lots of sunshine.
The pattern will begin to shift late Friday setting the stage for a cooler, showery pattern for much of the weekend.
An Atlantic ridge remains in place across the western North Atlantic and over Florida. From synopsis, an Atlantic ridge axis transecting the Florida Peninsula will shift southeastward over the next two days, as troughing develops over the Southeast.
612 PM CDT Thu May 8 2025 Afternoon radar/satellite imagery clearly shows a broad circulation in place surrounding an H500 cyclone in position just to the northeast of Arkansas. H500 ridging is expected to build in the coming days from the SW US toward the Upper Mississippi Valley. This ridge will struggle to advance much farther SE toward Arkansas thanks to a trailing cutoff H500 low expected to meander about the Lower Mississippi Valley through this weekend.
526 PM EDT Thu May 8 2025 High pressure will build north of the area tonight.
955 PM EDT Thu May 8 2025 High pressure will build north of the area tonight.
1006 PM EDT Thu May 8 2025 An area of low pressure aloft will bring cooler temperatures to the region through Friday, with periodic chances for showers mainly across the interior areas. The western edge of the precipitation probably gets to about the Genesee Valley with the highest probabilities for our area across the eastern Lake Ontario region with the heaviest rainfall amounts likely east of Interstate-81. Ongoing rain across the eastern Lake Ontario region will gradually pull east as the support from the low exits the area Friday night.
950 PM EDT Thu May 8 2025 Strong Canadian high pressure will build south across the Great Lakes as a cold front exits this evening.
918 PM EDT Thu May 8 2025 Cold front slowly crosses the mid-Atlantic late this afternoon through Friday morning.
621 PM EDT Thu May 8 2025 High pressure will build north of the area tonight.
The HREF 24-hour probability-matched mean also highlights a swatch of localized 3-5 inches through Friday morning across portions of the Lower/Mid Rio Grande Valley and the Northern Ranchlands. The first area will be along a weak boundary draped across portions of the Lower to Mid RGV, which will serve as a focus for convective development through the afternoon hours.
An amplifying ridge and southwest flow aloft will direct warmer air into the region on Friday with valley highs in the 80s, which is around 5-10 degrees warmer than today.
Issued 909 PM CDT Thu May 8 2025 High pressure over Lake Superior will move to central WI by 12Z Fri. Will maintain low temps in the lower to middle 30s with the Frost Advisory in effect. The high will then shift south across srn WI into the early afternoon. Lgt west to northwest winds will develop as the high shifts to the south, while ely winds and the lake breeze will occur over far ern WI. Gehring Issued 309 PM CDT Thu May 8 2025 Tonight through Friday night: The gusty northeast winds will diminish quickly this evening as high pressure wedges into the region.
235 AM EDT Fri May 9 2025 A dry cold front passes overnight into Friday morning, then mainly dry through the weekend. A relatively dry cold front exits east of the Appalachians during the predawn hours. However, a compacted upper level low pressure, clips our northeast mountains tonight into Saturday, perhaps with some low stratus lingering into early Saturday. With cold air in place and continuing northerly winds under mostly clear skies, expect below normal afternoon temperatures today, ranging from the 60s across the lowlands, into the lower 50s higher elevations of our northeast mountains. Tonight's lows will range from the lower 40s extreme southern SE OH and WV, into the upper 30s rest of the lowlands. High pressure will build in for the weekend, with dry, and mild conditions across the area.
136 AM EDT Fri May 9 2025 A dry cold front passes overnight into Friday morning, then mainly dry through the weekend. Isolated to scattered coverage of showers have begun to sprout within the lower Ohio Valley and the Central Appalachians this afternoon in the midst of an encroaching cold front. This should then scatter out as an afternoon cumulus deck as high pressure begins to settle into the Ohio Valley. Temperatures will stumble down into the 50s and 60s as highs on Friday in the wake of the cold front. High pressure will build in for the weekend, with dry, and mild conditions across the area.
The highest coverage exists just southwest of the forecast area, and there actually have been a few lightning strikes in that area. A very pleasant "summer-like" day! Saturday will be similar, with slightly breezier southerly winds as upper level ridging builds over the central and eastern CONUS.
213 AM EDT Fri May 9 2025 A dry cold front passes overnight into Friday morning, then mainly dry through the weekend. A relatively dry cold front exits east of the Appalachians during the predawn hours. However, a compacted upper level low pressure, clips our northeast mountains tonight into Saturday, perhaps with some low stratus lingering into early Saturday. With cold air in place and continuing northerly winds under mostly clear skies, expect below normal afternoon temperatures today, ranging from the 60s across the lowlands, into the lower 50s higher elevations of our northeast mountains. Tonight's lows will range from the lower 40s extreme southern SE OH and WV, into the upper 30s rest of the lowlands. High pressure will build in for the weekend, with dry, and mild conditions across the area.
We have updated the forecast for the remainder of the early morning hours to add a mention of isolated showers for the above mentioned areas as well as farther east into the Highway 77 corridor from La Grange northward. Forecast soundings show a good amount of mid-level moisture remains in place today and with adequate moisture, daytime heating and some weak lift on the backside of an upper low, we should see some isolated convection during the afternoon hours.
246 AM EDT Fri May 9 2025 Strong Canadian high pressure will remain in control of the weather into Saturday.
150 AM CDT Fri May 9 2025 Afternoon radar/satellite imagery clearly shows a broad circulation in place surrounding an H500 cyclone in position just to the northeast of Arkansas. H500 ridging is expected to build in the coming days from the SW US toward the Upper Mississippi Valley. This ridge will struggle to advance much farther SE toward Arkansas thanks to a trailing cutoff H500 low expected to meander about the Lower Mississippi Valley through this weekend.
Partly to mostly clear skies and generally light winds will allow for cooler overnight lows ranging from the mid 40s to mid 50s. Breezy NE winds will help to keep temperatures below average again today, with highs only reaching the low-to-mid 70s.
Warmer air returns by the second half of the weekend.
Early morning water vapor imagery shows that the axis of an upper- level trough is pivoting through the Great Lakes, with an upper low becoming sheared out across the Ohio and Middle Mississippi vallies. A weak cold front is sinking southward through the region, with an expansive area of high pressure spreading across the Midwest in its wake. This high and cooling temperatures aloft will lead to a pleasant day across the CWA, with temperatures this afternoon (low 70s) running cool for early May this afternoon. Saturday, a Rex Block will begin forming across the central CONUS, and the area of high pressure at the surface expands further across the Midwest and Northeast. This will keep our weather calm, though temperatures will warm over what is expected today as the cooler pocket of mid-level temperatures shifts eastward.
116 AM EDT Fri May 9 2025 An area of low pressure aloft will bring cooler temperatures to the region through Friday, with periodic chances for showers mainly across the interior areas. The western edge of the precipitation probably gets to about the Genesee Valley with the highest probabilities for our area across the eastern Lake Ontario region with the heaviest rainfall amounts likely east of Interstate-81. Ongoing rain across the eastern Lake Ontario region will gradually pull east as the support from the low exits the area Friday night.
(This evening through Friday) Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms continue across southern portions of the area, as an upper level trough tracks across the region.
Surface ridging with subsidence and drying this afternoon will continue into tonight with decreasing winds. This will allow good radiational cooling conditions and, with dew points dropping into the 20s overnight, air temperatures should fall below freezing across much of the northern interior zones and into the lower to mid 30s elsewhere. We will have a dry forecast through the weekend but will have to watch the potential for some showers attending a cold front passage Saturday morning, mostly across the northern half of the forecast area where moisture is deeper. A cut off low near the Gulf Coast over the weekend will move northeast as it gets kicked out by a deepening western CONUS trough.
Synoptic analysis shows an upper level trough located over/just east of the area, with an upper low to our south. Overnight lows will drop a few more degrees over the next couple hours, bottoming out in the low to mid 50s. Throughout the course of today, the upper low will continue pushing south/southeast, allowing skies to gradually clear throughout the day. Afternoon highs will climb into the low to mid 70s, with Friday night's temperatures in the low to mid 40s. On Saturday, models show the upper low becoming closed-off and remaining fairly stationary over the LA/AR vicinity.
- High pressure brings dry weather Friday and Friday night followed by a stray shower Saturday morning.
(Today and tonight) Ridging in the west will continue to build and push the cut-off low over the Arklatex region towards the Gulf Coast.
High pressure also begins to slide in across the Ohio Valley and this should help with starting to develop wedge conditions across the FA.
Other than limited rain chances along the mountains, today and tonight will be drier and cooler. Today Currently early this morning, a closed low is centered over the eastern Great Lakes with a cold front just north of our area. The closed low is expected to drift slightly southward with another closed low developing near the ArkLaTex region. Ultimately, the biggest change in the pattern for the day will be a return of cooler temperatures in comparison to yesterday. Tonight Overnight, the closed low to our southwest is expected to deepen and drift southward towards the northwestern Gulf. By this time, the frontal boundary is expected to be to our south with recent CAA and drier air promoting notably cooler temperatures overnight, likely reaching into the 40s in many locations.
Expect on and off rounds of mid/high clouds pushing east across the area at times (maybe a more partly cloudy period through 3 AM) ahead of a cold front currently in northern Tennessee into southern Missouri. Cold air advection and cloud cover should keep highs from climbing above the lower to mid 70s.
Otherwise, look for low tonight to fall into the low to middle 60s.
Deterministic guidance and ensembles are in good agreement on building a broad upper level ridge into the region through the weekend, as a developing upper low meanders about the Lower Mississippi Valley. This rex block will keep the pattern stagnant, but this just means high pressure will park itself across the region for a while and provide a continuation of the fantastic weather through the weekend.
Analysis early this morning indicated a low tropospheric ridge axis across the Florida Peninsula and western north Atlantic, with mid/upper ridging to the southwest over Mexico. Big changes in the regional pattern are in store for the Keys as a broad trough pivots into the south central U. , dispacing the low-to-mid level ridge eastward into the Atlantic and the upper ridge gets suppressed southward.
206 AM CDT Fri May 9 2025 - Dry and slightly cooler than normal conditions are forecast today through much of the weekend.
(Today through Saturday) Convection has finally cleared the entire BRO CWFA, with the most recent surface analysis showing a cold front draped over the western Gulf of America. With the center of 500 mb low pressure becoming positioned over Louisiana, and a west-northwest to east- southeast mid-level flow in place, Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley will experience dry weather from today through tonight. This synoptic situation will not change much for Saturday, but with the 500 mb low wobbling closer to the BRO CWFA, generally isolated convection may develop over the lower Texas coastal waters for the first half of the weekend. Temperature-wise, courtesy of the above-mentioned cold front, slightly below normal daytime highs and overnight lows will occur, aided by an offshore flow in the wake of the front.
(Today and tonight) Upper low will develop over Louisiana late this afternoon, with West Central texas remaining on the back side of this system into the weekend. Cooler than normal temperatures will prevail today, along with breezy north winds developing. Dry conditions are expected tonight, with light winds and overnight lows in the low to mid 50s.
450 AM EDT Fri May 9 2025 - Warmer on today with widespread upper 60s to upper 70s likely.
Mid-level and surface ridging is taking control of the region early this morning in the wake of yesterday's system.
Tomorrow the cutoff will be located over Texarkana with an amplifying ridge across the Central Rockies. Lows will drop into the 40s north of I-40 and the low 50s south of it. That makes Saturday a good bet to be drier and a bit warmer.
Scattered convection should develop by mid to late afternoon across the region as an upper low begins to close off over the area, with enough confidence in affecting all but the TXK terminal. Much of the convection should diminish by 01Z Saturday, but possibly linger near and on the N side of the low over NE LA.