Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
The influx of dry air into the region is attributed to the development of a high-pressure ridge over the Northern Rockies, a trend expected to persist and strengthen through late today and into Saturday. With clearing skies and recent snowfall, temperatures are poised to plummet into the low single digits, and even dipping a few degrees below zero on Saturday morning.
Shower chances will begin to increase by later this afternoon, as the cold front begins its trek to the SE. A large swing in temperatures is anticipated behind this cold front as well, so enjoy your last day of pleasant temperatures. Highs tomorrow will only range in the upper-40s and low-50s, with lows tomorrow dropping below freezing for a large portion of the area.
There is a 30-40% chance for dense fog in the lower portions of the valley this morning.
Widespread rain will approach the area later today and into tonight ahead of a cold front. Discussion: A south sinking trough will move across the area tonight and into tomorrow. A low pressure system currently just east of the Rockies will develop today and eventually pass over the forecast area along with a cold front. On the backside of the front as temperatures fall during the overnight hours, rain will change over to snow showers across the higher terrain mostly in the northeastern part of our forecast area.
550 AM CST Fri Feb 16 2024 (Today through Saturday Night) An upper ridge located over the west coast is providing northwest flow into the Rockies. The upper ridge moves into the Rockies Saturday and northwest flow will arrive in Arkansas. High pressure will build in behind the front and north and northwest winds will become gusty. Highs today will be in the mid 50s north to the lower 70s south, and in the upper 30s to mid 40s on Saturday. Lows tonight will be in the lower 20s north to lower 30s south and low to mid 20s Saturday night.
As the polar stream amplifies, we'll see cold high pressure surge southward into the forecast area. Southwesterly flow will help usher much warmer air to the region.
511 AM CST Fri Feb 16 2024 Mild and breezy conditions will prevail across the Midsouth today, in advance of a strong cold front. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop along and ahead of the cold front. Rain will taper off behind the exited cold front this evening.
Strong cold front moves through today. Much colder temperatures are on the way, as a strong cold front moves through the area today. Temperatures will be much colder tonight, with most of the area seeing freezing temperatures towards daybreak Saturday.
314 AM CST Fri Feb 16 2024 - Next system moves through today with a stronger cold front and colder highs for today.
520 AM CST Fri Feb 16 2024 (Today) Mid/high clouds continue to filter into the region early this morning ahead of a mid/upper trough shifting from the central Plains into the Mid South and lower Ohio Valley. The cold front will be approaching the AL/MS border late in the day -- and as a result, most locations will remain dry for most of the day.
(Rest of Today) As an upper level trough shifts east today it will push a cold front across the forecast area by this evening. Cloud cover continues to filter in from the west ahead of the aforementioned cold front that is situated across NW TN into southern MO.
Total rainfall amounts will be less than 1/2 inch with the highest amounts near the Coastal Plains. The focus turns to our north as a strong cold front moves into our far northern Hill Country and Central Texas counties late this afternoon and the remainder of our area this evening into the early overnight hours.
Current conditions/Today: The Northland finds itself on the backside of a cold front that is now moving south into Iowa.
Today: Currently early this morning, upper troughing continues to bring relatively cooler, seasonable air mass into the area. Cooler air aloft will keep temperatures near average with highs in the teens to twenties above zero, making for a somewhat brisk day given the breezy winds. With a westerly direction and strong stability in the lower levels via strong warm air advection, gusty downslope winds exceeding 35 mph along the western edge of the Red River Valley are forecast late tonight into Saturday morning.
548 AM CST Fri Feb 16 2024 (Today and tonight) Strong cold front entering northwest Oklahoma this morning will quickly sweep southeast across the area during the first part of the day.
The passage of an upper trough will drive a little colder air across Lower Mi. Southeast Michigan will reside between a low pressure system passing mostly to the south and a secondary arctic cold front to the north today. Will introduce low end POPs across Lenawee and Monroe County for possible light snow showers on the northern fringes of the low pressure system passing across KY/TN. The aforementioned arctic cold front will push southward tonight being driven by a mid level trough. The thermal trough with 850 mb temperatures nearing -20C will arrive over southeast Michigan Saturday morning helping drop temperatures down into the teens for overnight lows with wind chill values down into the single digits. High temperatures for Saturday will hold in the low to mid 20s with mostly dry conditions.
Temperatures along the island chain are mostly in the lower 70s, although a few sheltered interior spots such as North Big Pine have radiated down into the mid to upper 60s. Surface analysis depicts high pressure retreating offshore over the western Atlantic. Mainly dry weather will continue tonight and Saturday, as high pressure shifts further offshore over the western Atlantic, and our local low-level flow veers from ESE to SSW in response. Highs on Saturday will be the warmest of the week, climbing into the lower 80s.
523 AM CST Fri Feb 16 2024 - Next system moves through today with a stronger cold front and colder highs for today.
The anomalous upper level ridge/high centered over NW Canada expands southward across the Rockies later today and gradually de- amplifies through the upcoming weekend for a period of mainly dry weather for most of the forecast area. At the surface, high pressure slides southeast across MT today and tonight with lower pressure/lee-side troughing developing east of the Rockies through the weekend.
At the surface, a stalling cold front is draped east to west across north Alabama. Widespread high clouds are keeping temperatures on the warm side, with current obs in the lower 40s to lower 50s. Cold advection behind the front will bring lows Saturday morning down into the lower 30s across the northwest. Highs will be in the lower 40s northwest to mid 50s southeast.
PoPs remain elevated Today and into the early parts of tonight as the coastal trough is expected to move away ahead of an advancing cold front. This is more of a break in the rain chances, as when the cold front moves through the region on Saturday, the rain chances will return. That being said, the low temperature for tonight are expected to be mostly int he upper 40s, but the southern parts of the CWA will be in the lower 50s. As such the high temperatures for Saturday are expected to be in the range of upper 50s to lower 60s, as the temperatures are expected to fall during the afternoon into the 50s in the wake of the cold front.
Mild and breezy conditions will prevail across the Midsouth today, in advance of a strong cold front. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop along and ahead of the cold front. Rain will taper off behind the exited cold front this evening.
(Today through Saturday) The broad area of enhanced upper level forcing continues to push eastward across Texas into Louisiana ahead of the upper trough situated near Baja California. Speaking of, looking at some of the latest guidance, we continue to see the front trending faster which has lended enough confidence to nudge temps down slightly from NBM guidance on Saturday as cooler air arrives earlier. Regardless, the arrival of the cold front Saturday morning will usher in colder, drier and put an end to the rain by later in the day.
(Today through Saturday Night) An upper ridge located over the west coast is providing northwest flow into the Rockies. The upper ridge moves into the Rockies Saturday and northwest flow will arrive in Arkansas. High pressure will build in behind the front and north and northwest winds will become gusty. Highs today will be in the mid 50s north to the lower 70s south, and in the upper 30s to mid 40s on Saturday. Lows tonight will be in the lower 20s north to lower 30s south and low to mid 20s Saturday night.
531 AM CST Fri Feb 16 2024 (Today through Saturday) Our stretch of quiet weather will be coming to an end today as a quick moving cold front pushes through Middle TN. We will see a quiet start to the day though with warmer morning temperatures than the last few mornings. Upper level trough will dig into the Great Lakes pushing a cold front south into the region later today into the evening.
A few flurries are occuring with the low clouds, mainly near the North Dakota border but with no drop in visibility or indication on DOT cameras, should not amount to much.
517 AM CST Fri Feb 16 2024 (Today through Saturday) The broad area of enhanced upper level forcing continues to push eastward across Texas into Louisiana ahead of the upper trough situated near Baja California. Speaking of, looking at some of the latest guidance, we continue to see the front trending faster which has lended enough confidence to nudge temps down slightly from NBM guidance on Saturday as cooler air arrives earlier. Regardless, the arrival of the cold front Saturday morning will usher in colder, drier and put an end to the rain by later in the day.
618 AM EST Fri Feb 16 2024 (Today through Saturday) High pressure will continue to influence the weather over South FL today, promoting dry conditions and southeasterly flow over the area.
Canadian high pressure slides south into the region today, bringing a cold airmass into the region. Saturday will be slightly warmer thanks to an upper ridge building over the Rockies and low level westerly flow providing additional compressional warming east of the Black Hills.
We are seeing some gusts in E TX and they will be spreading eastward for all of our area ahead of the approaching cold front.
A widespread snow accumulation is expected tonight with the highest amounts across the southern tier of central PA.
We will still maintain the low probability for snow for places like Kalamazoo and Battle Creek. Ahead of an approaching and seasonably deep clipper type of upper trough, Bufkit soundings predict the marine boundary layer to deepen up to around 700 mb by early tonight with convective instability developing in the DGZ.
OVERVIEW: upper level trough promises colder, but seasonable air for the start of the weekend.
High pressure is establishing itself over the Northern Rockies today, ushering in a much drier air-mass.
1142 AM CST Fri Feb 16 2024 - Next system moves through today with a stronger cold front and colder highs for today.
A ridge becomes dominant Saturday and continues generally through the end of the period.
1149 AM CST Fri Feb 16 2024 (Today through Saturday Night) An upper ridge located over the west coast is providing northwest flow into the Rockies. The upper ridge moves into the Rockies Saturday and northwest flow will arrive in Arkansas. High pressure will build in behind the front and north and northwest winds will become gusty. Highs today will be in the mid 50s north to the lower 70s south, and in the upper 30s to mid 40s on Saturday. Lows tonight will be in the lower 20s north to lower 30s south and low to mid 20s Saturday night.
The Lower Keys saw a decent amount of mid-level cloud cover this morning, but this cloud cover is trying to burn off. High pressure in the western North Atlantic is maintaining gentle to light east to southeast breezes across the forecast area. From synopsis, high pressure will continue to move further offshore over the western North Atlantic this afternoon and tonight, with east to southeast breezes slackening across the Keys waters. Breezes will turn to the south and southwest Saturday and Saturday night, ahead of another approaching cold front.
1137 AM CST Fri Feb 16 2024 (The rest of today ) A cold front continues to slice through eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas this morning and is currently located near a KMLC to KFYV line.
109 PM EST Fri Feb 16 2024 A fast moving low pressure system will bring accumulating snow to the region this afternoon into tonight. Still seeing the nice signal on the models for the fgen banding and just trying to narrow down where the highest values with the banding will be. The main concerns will be the higher rates of snow which will have the potential to cause slick conditions even with warmer surfaces due to brief ability for it to overcome warm surfaces. Going into this evening as temperatures fall there could be a larger and longer potential for slick conditions given the cooler temperature pattern at that point. Colder temperatures with highs from the mid 20s west to the lower 30s southeast.
A strong cold front was moving through the region as of noon today, turning winds to the north at 20 to 25 mph, with gusts over 30 mph at times. Temperatures at noon ranged from the mid to upper 40s along and north of Interstate 20 to the lower 70s in our southeastern counties. Temperatures will fall during the afternoon hours behind the cold front.
(This evening through Saturday night) As expected, conditions this afternoon across the Panhandles remain much cooler than NBM output suggested, with temperatures mired in the 30s and 40s under mostly cloudy skies in the wake of last night's cold frontal passage. While depth of the low level saturated layer may not reach the -12C level, with much of this layer progged to be around -8C, still think majority of hydrometeors will reach the surface as snow rather than freezing drizzle. After a cold Saturday courtesy of our light snow and overcast conditions, temperatures look to fall into the lower 20s under mostly clear skies.
As the low moves closer to the region, showers and a few thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon. ARS Mild and breezy conditions will prevail across the Midsouth today, in advance of a strong cold front. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop along and ahead of the cold front. Rain will taper off behind the exited cold front this evening.
For today, we are looking for afternoon high temperatures to be a few degrees warmer then yesterday, winds to remain light and increasing high clouds spreading in from the west.
- Single digit wind chills Saturday morning along and north of the Highway 60 corridor. A cold front has brought a mix of everything today for central Missouri.
1154 AM EST Fri Feb 16 2024 A fast moving low pressure system will bring accumulating snow to the region this afternoon into tonight. Still seeing the nice signal on the models for the fgen banding and just trying to narrow down where the highest values with the banding will be. The main concerns will be the higher rates of snow which will have the potential to cause slick conditions even with warmer surfaces due to brief ability for it to overcome warm surfaces. Going into this evening as temperatures fall there could be a larger and longer potential for slick conditions given the cooler temperature pattern at that point. Colder temperatures with highs from the mid 20s west to the lower 30s southeast.
Tonight Through Saturday Night: An upper level trough over the Northeast will push a cold front through our region tonight and Saturday morning. The higher probabilities remain focus over the mountains of north Georgia.
(This afternoon through Saturday night) As of the time of writing this, the Arctic cold front has made it south of the I-10 corridor and continues to slide southwestward. High pressure continues to build over the southern High Plains, with isallobaric and gradient forcings offsetting sensible heating flux somewhat. Winds will continue to veer around to a southeasterly direction Saturday night as high pressure gives way to lee troughing. Saturday will be quite below average for mid February, with highs ranging from around 40 along the eastern slopes of the mountains to the lower 60s along the Rio Grande. Temperatures Friday night will be similar to tonight's lows, with lower 20s to the lower 40s forecast.
Otherwise, lake effect streamers within colder northwesterly flow will release across the area tonight as another modified arctic cold front sweeps through the region and brings another shot of cold air into the region for Saturday.
253 PM EST Fri Feb 16 2024 A cold front will move through the area late tonight and early Saturday morning, providing a few light showers, followed by cooler conditions.
(Tonight through Saturday night) The passing of a weak, mid-level trough axis this morning has led to a slight decrease in cloudcover, especially at lower levels. A strong cold front currently stretches from Denton to Abilene to Big Spring. The lowest temperatures will be in the Hill Country, but only a few spots should drop below 28F, which we generally consider as the threshold for a hard freeze.
1201 PM CST Fri Feb 16 2024 (Today and tonight) Strong cold front entering northwest Oklahoma this morning will quickly sweep southeast across the area during the first part of the day.
Mid/high clouds continue to increase this morning, out ahead of a cold front that will sweep southeast across the area overnight. As the polar stream amplifies, we'll see cold high pressure surge southward into the forecast area. Southwesterly flow will help usher much warmer air to the region.
Visible satellite is depicting mostly clear skies across the island chain this afternoon, with a few weak streamers waxing and waning north of the Lower Keys. High pressure in the western North Atlantic has maintained gentle east to southeast breezes along the Reef, lending to a great day not just on land but also on the water. A relatively quiet, warmer next 36 hours is on tap for the Florida Keys. As the high slides farther out into the north Atlantic, winds will gradually shift to the southeast to south. Temperatures will likely reach the lower 80s in most island communities during the day tomorrow.
As the trough passes through, mid-level moisture will seep into our CWA and bring stratus clouds at around 700mb overnight behind a mid-level cold front that will cross our CWA early tonight. Current MOS guidance shows temperatures cooling below freezing due to the clear skies ahead of the aforementioned stratus deck and the cold air associated with the cold front. As temperatures cool below freezing tonight, a few flurries are possible in the northwestern counties of our CWA early Saturday morning where mid-level moisture will be the greatest.
However, a trough will dive southeastward out of the Rocky Mountains late tonight and differential cyclonic vorticity advection will occur across northwest Oklahoma late. Increasing sky cover with the approaching trough tomorrow will keep highs well below the pace we have set over the last few weeks.
Look for the isolated, light high-elevation snow showers to diminish by this evening across northeastern Nevada as a low pressure trough moves east of the region. High pressure will build over the state through Saturday bringing warming temperatures, light winds and dry conditions but increasing cloud cover as an active weather pattern remains over the western United States.
Wind chills fall into the single digits and teens, and remain below freezing even during the afternoon on Saturday.
1054 AM CST Fri Feb 16 2024 (Rest of Today) As an upper level trough shifts east today it will push a cold front across the forecast area by this evening. Cloud cover continues to filter in from the west ahead of the aforementioned cold front that is situated across NW TN into southern MO.
(The rest of this afternoon and Tonight) The cold front has fully worked its way through the CWA, mostly without any major fanfare other than gusty northerly winds and some light rain and drizzle that occurred just behind the frontal boundary. Temperatures have since dropped into in the low-mid 40s and upper 30s (mid-30s in far NW AR and far NE OK) and have held steady early this afternoon. Much colder temperatures are anticipated tonight behind todayâs cold front compared to previous nights. Confidence is high that overnight lows will drop well below freezing across E. Mejia (Saturday through Friday) Unseasonably cool temperatures will continue through the day Saturday (highs generally in the low-mid 40s; upper 30s in far NW AR and far NE OK) and into Saturday night.
133 PM EST Fri Feb 16 2024 Beneficial weekend rain event on track as a deep southern stream trough holds in the W Gulf advecting deep atmospheric moisture over the region and FL Peninsula while a series of embedded vort maxes move overhead.
136 PM EST Fri Feb 16 2024 A fast moving low pressure system will bring accumulating snow to the region this afternoon into tonight. Still seeing the nice signal on the models for the fgen banding and just trying to narrow down where the highest values with the banding will be. The main concerns will be the higher rates of snow which will have the potential to cause slick conditions even with warmer surfaces due to brief ability for it to overcome warm surfaces. Going into this evening as temperatures fall there could be a larger and longer potential for slick conditions given the cooler temperature pattern at that point. Colder temperatures with highs from the mid 20s west to the lower 30s southeast.
(The rest of today ) A cold front continues to slice through eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas this morning and is currently located near a KMLC to KFYV line.
(Tonight) After a mild afternoon across the Tennessee Valley, big changes are in store as an approaching cold front to our NW traverses the forecast area. Latest sfc observations depict the cold front as a line of showers developing from SW KY, W TN, and into NW AR.
513 PM CST Fri Feb 16 2024 (Tonight) After a mild afternoon across the Tennessee Valley, big changes are in store as an approaching cold front to our NW traverses the forecast area. Latest sfc observations depict the cold front as a line of showers developing from SW KY, W TN, and into NW AR.
613 PM CST Fri Feb 16 2024 A strong cold front will continue to push south into north Mississippi this evening. Rain will taper off behind the cold front with a brief period of sleet or snow showers possible over northwest Tennessee.
Reinforcement of NW wind and cold air occurs across Lower Mi as low pressure exits the Ohio valley this evening. Otherwise, lake effect streamers within colder northwesterly flow will release across the area tonight as another modified arctic cold front sweeps through the region and brings another shot of cold air into the region for Saturday.
As such, forecast low temps will be retained however any locales where clouds remain are likely to stay relatively warmer. (Saturday through Friday) Unseasonably cool temperatures will continue through the day Saturday (highs generally in the low-mid 40s; upper 30s in far NW AR and far NE OK) and into Saturday night.
We will bottom out in the upper 20s and lower 30s for our I-30 corridor tonight and slightly warmer mid to upper 30s to around 40 for our interest along and south of I-20.
526 PM CST Fri Feb 16 2024 (This afternoon through Saturday night) As of the time of writing this, the Arctic cold front has made it south of the I-10 corridor and continues to slide southwestward. High pressure continues to build over the southern High Plains, with isallobaric and gradient forcings offsetting sensible heating flux somewhat. Winds will continue to veer around to a southeasterly direction Saturday night as high pressure gives way to lee troughing. Saturday will be quite below average for mid February, with highs ranging from around 40 along the eastern slopes of the mountains to the lower 60s along the Rio Grande. Temperatures Friday night will be similar to tonight's lows, with lower 20s to the lower 40s forecast.