Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Otherwise, weak troughing will swing through the region bringing weak forcing. Temperatures are expected to reach the mid to upper 80s in the afternoon, feeling muggy to the south with dew points in the upper 60s and low 70s and comfortable to the north with dew points in the low to mid 60s. A positive tilted trough aloft stretching from the Hudson Bay towards Louisiana along with an Upper Ridge Axis centered over Bermuda in the Atlantic will allow for Gulf of Mexico moisture to increase over the region for the weekend. Lows in the low/mid 60s are expected with a few upper 50s across southern IN. A general stagnant upper level trough of low pressure will hang across the area.
/ISSUED 530 PM MDT Fri Jul 19 2024/ The overall hot and dry weather pattern continues with a large scale upper level ridge positioned over the interior west. Meanwhile, another weak wave is forecast to move through the top of the ridge, passing over the Canadian Rockies into Eastern Montana on a northerly flow on Saturday. A thermal trough in the surface pressure field over the interior west will help to create an easterly breeze over our region, noted only in the afternoon hours with deep layer mixing.
Temperatures should be fairly seasonal, building to above average values towards the end of the period as ridging arrives for Friday and Saturday. Currently anticipating precipitation chances to be about 60 percent by mid afternoon along the highway 2 corridor, so mentioned a VCTS at all sites but KFAR for now.
An expansive deep-layered Bermuda ridge will remain to our east. Highs will be in the lower to mid 90s each day with dewpoints in the 70s. A relatively typical summertime pattern will persist with a deep layered ridge to our east and deep tropical moisture continuing to stream across the area.
701 PM EDT Fri Jul 19 2024 (Through Saturday) Upper level pattern through Saturday will continue to see the region situated east of an upper level trough axis and west of a broad upper level ridge across the western Atlantic. Main concerns like we've seen recently will continue to revolve around heavy rain potential due to the high moisture content in place.
RGB NT Microphysics imagery does show some low clouds, maybe some fog or mist developing along the lower and shallow areas of the ArkLaTex, but confidence at this time is not high enough to support widespread fog probs overnight. Aside from this, cooler and quiet conditions should prevail overnight with temperatures in the 60's and low 70's come sunrise, Saturday. Saturday will be mostly dry, sans a stray shower here or there, as upper-level troughing continues to settle overhead. Afternoon highs tomorrow will climb back into the low-90s, with overnight lows tonight and tomorrow ranging in the mid-60s to low-70s.
607 PM EDT Fri Jul 19 2024 High pressure will remain over the area through tonight.
906 PM EDT Fri Jul 19 2024 Sprawling high pressure will remain across the Great Lakes through Saturday.
623 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024 - Temperatures will trend warmer each day through the weekend, but will remain below normal for the next 7 days.
Overnight lows in the lower to mid 70s are expected. A longwave trough will extend from Quebec south into the Gulf of Mexico, and warm, moist advection will persist across much of the eastern United States.
322 AM EDT Sat Jul 20 2024 * High pressure ensures another day of dry conditions with high temperatures in the low 80s.
411 AM EDT Sat Jul 20 2024 High pressure will continue fine summer weather with low humidity across our region today, with passing cirrus across the southern zones, and bright sunshine to the north. A moisture starved cold front will drop southward into our zones tonight and Sunday, bringing a band of clouds.
1233 AM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024 (Tonight through Saturday night) The mid-level ridge across the Four Corners will gradually edge west as the 500 mb trough over the Central U. The models keep a weak signal for a sea breeze in for Saturday afternoon, and PWAT is sufficient though model chances remain on the low end, around 15%.
Overall pattern continues to feature an upper ridge over the western U. and a closed low over Canada north of the Great Lakes with a broad trough in between.
235 AM EDT Sat Jul 20 2024 High pressure will continue fine summer weather with low humidity across our region today, with passing cirrus across the southern zones, and bright sunshine to the north. A moisture starved cold front will drop southward into our zones tonight and Sunday, bringing a band of clouds.
1210 AM EDT Sat Jul 20 2024 High pressure will remain over the area through tonight. A cold front will approach on Saturday and cross the area Saturday night into Sunday.
The ridge axis will extend north along the spine of the Rockies and into southern Canada on Sunday, while troughing continues to dominate the eastern CONUS.
321 AM EDT Sat Jul 20 2024 Dry weather is expected for most of the area through Sunday night under high pressure. The exception today is a wave of low pressure could bring a few showers or thunderstorms to areas southeast of Pittsburgh. High temperatures should be similar, or a couple of degrees higher, than yesterday's readings with slightly higher 1000-500mb heights, and warmer 850mb temperatures.
Attention turns northward on Sunday with some initial influence from approaching upper level disturbances within the clockwise flow coming around the periphery of the ridge centered over the western CONUS.
RGB NT Microphysics imagery does show some low clouds, maybe some fog or mist developing along the lower and shallow areas of the ArkLaTex, but confidence at this time is not high enough to support widespread fog probs overnight. Aside from this, cooler and quiet conditions should prevail overnight with temperatures in the 60's and low 70's come sunrise, Saturday.
However, sounding data shows a stout dry layer in the low-levels.
Afternoon through evening cumulus development will once again occur over the higher terrain on Saturday, with an isolated shower or thunderstorm also being possible over these same areas and east of a KLWT to KHVR line. /ISSUED 530 PM MDT Fri Jul 19 2024/ The overall hot and dry weather pattern continues with a large scale upper level ridge positioned over the interior west. Meanwhile, another weak wave is forecast to move through the top of the ridge, passing over the Canadian Rockies into Eastern Montana on a northerly flow on Saturday. A thermal trough in the surface pressure field over the interior west will help to create an easterly breeze over our region, noted only in the afternoon hours with deep layer mixing.
Current water vapor imagery nicely showing an upper level trough over the intersection of Minnesota, South Dakota, and North Dakota. Satellite shows some clouds over the FA, but mainly in the southern Red River Valley and MN Lakes country associated with this low. Temperatures will be in the 80s through the work week, possibly warming into the low 90s as the UL ridge gets compressed before flattening.
322 AM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024 - Temperatures will trend warmer each day through the weekend; however, they will remain below normal for the next 7 days.
934 PM MDT Fri Jul 19 2024 - Severe weather is possible today as a cold front moves across the region. Damaging winds and isolated large hail are possible as the cold front moves through. Cooler temperatures for Saturday.
This evening, the jet streak and trough axis lift NE of our area, which should result in decreasing rain chances. With cloud cover expected to be broken to overcast today, highs will continue to be below normal, with highs in the lower to mid 80s.
Despite this "front", temperatures are expected to stay close to seasonal normals tonight with lows in the lower to middle 70s. 24 (Tonight through Sunday night) Mid-afternoon sfc analysis shows a stationary frontal boundary draped over the forecast area, with an area of low pressure spinning near the far nern zones. 88D imagery shows this activity now east of the Atchafalaya although widely scattered convection is beginning to re-fire across mainly ern portions of the area in response to the low.
Overall, we'll remain situated on the eastern side of a trough positioned over the lower and mid-Mississippi river valley region.
Temperatures won't budge much the rest of the overnight, mainly hanging around the lower and middle 70s. An expansive deep-layered Bermuda ridge will remain to our east. Highs will be in the lower to mid 90s each day with dewpoints in the 70s. A relatively typical summertime pattern will persist with a deep layered ridge to our east and deep tropical moisture continuing to stream across the area. Winds will be mainly S or SW 15 kt or less, and seas 2-4 feet, as the waters lie under the western side of Atlantic high pressure.
359 AM EDT Sat Jul 20 2024 Seasonable temperatures and good chances for showers and thunderstorms will continue for most of the next seven days as Bermuda High offshore and the Piedmont Trough inland remain nearly stationary. A cold front just north and west of the area will remain near the area today and tonight as weak upper level energy approaches from the sw. Highs today should reach the upper 80s to around 90 with lows tonight in the low to mid 70s.
405 AM EDT Sat Jul 20 2024 High pressure extending across the lower Great Lakes will weaken on Sunday. High pressure will remain across the lower Great Lakes today.
1234 AM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024 (This evening through Sunday) A nearly static upper level pattern will persist during the short term, with a ridge over the western US, and a broad trof over the midsection of the country.
The ridge of high pressure just does not want to budge, which will allow for multiple days of persistent heat and little in the way of overnight relief.
As the low tracks across the area funnel clouds remain possible with showers, but daytime cloud cover could put a damper on better stretching potential. By late week the trough is finally expected to lift northeast as the western US thermal ridge edges back towards the midwest, sending temperatures back towards normal for this time of year in the mid to upper 80s.
Still seeing a weak trough digging through the U. Great Plains & Upper Midwest Regions from the main upper jet stream flow over Canada, and this trough will still provide the upper support for rain/storms this weekend. Tonight will see another MCS over the Central through Southern High Plains as this disturbance rotates through the upper ridge persisting over the U. Right now expecting the highest severe risk tonight over western Kansas to the Oklahoma Panhandle but some of these organized severe storms in the northwest flow aloft could be steered into northwest Oklahoma before weakening into a less unstable and weaker sheared environment.
The trough seen on WV imagery early this morning with weakening energy struggle to eradicate and saturate the dry air in place. With the trajectory of this low, expect precipitation potential to remain along our western periphery through this evening. Subsequent precipitation chances early this afternoon sag south from northern Wisconsin as the upper level trough traverses the Upper Mississippi River Valley; dragging a back door cold front with it. While mid to upper level lapse rates steepen from the upper level low, a low to mid level temperature inversion and lack of forcing limits overall confidence and coverage in precipitation and storms. Through The New Week: The upper level low lingers through the new week, sending perturbations around its periphery, perpetuating daytime precipitation and storm chances locally.
Later in the week, a Pacific system may provide cooler and drier conditions. In the 850-700mb layer, flow has become more westerly particularly in the lower Colorado River Valley. As a result, PoPs come down across the lower deserts, with the 20+ percent rain chances confined to eastern Mohave County, Lincoln County, and the Sierra. Outside of any thunderstorm influences, heat will continue to increase across the area, particularly the lower elevations of the Mojave Desert.
With the high to the east, the flow will largely be from the south southwest. Once the high centers more to the northeast Sunday, the prevailing flow will come more from the south.
(Today and tonight) The synoptic-scale upper pattern will be pretty constant through sunrise Sunday with the large upper high over the Great Basin and a low over the upper Mississippi Valley.
Surface and upper-air analysis depicts a deep Atlantic ridge extending westward across the Florida peninsula into the Gulf of Mexico. The main weather concern for today will once again be the heat, with highs in the lower 90s and dewpoints in the upper 70s to near 80 driving heat indices as high as 111F during the midday and afternoon hours.
Sunset showed the high thin layer of smoke, which should help prevent temperatures from cooling as much as they could tonight.
316 AM EDT Sat Jul 20 2024 Dry weather is expected for most of the area through Sunday night under high pressure. The exception today is a wave of low pressure could bring a few showers or thunderstorms to areas southeast of Pittsburgh. High temperatures should be similar, or a couple of degrees higher, than yesterday's readings with slightly higher 1000-500mb heights, and warmer 850mb temperatures.
322 AM EDT Sat Jul 20 2024 High pressure in place through Sunday.
Upper troughing remains from the northeast US southwest to the southern Plains and the subtropical ridge off the east coast.
This low is strong enough to have a weak cyclonic wind field with it as well. But the main thing we will look at is the relatively drier air to the west of this low. 0) PW air starts to rush back into these areas as the low moves away. The environment along and east of the low remains in this high PW air and since the dry air will not make its way that far east, the eastern half of the area will see high chances through the day again.
(Today through Sunday Night) An upper level high pressure system is over the western U. with an upper trough over the Great Lakes and extending through the eastern U. Highs today and Sunday will be in the lower 80s to lower 90s.
(Today through Sunday) The mid-level ridge over the Four Corners will slowly drift towards the west, as a mid-level trough moves over the Central U. However models keep the development of showers and thunderstorms on the low end. While the high temperatures for today and tomorrow are in the mid to upper 90s.
336 AM EDT Sat Jul 20 2024 High pressure provides fair weather today. A cold front drops south tonight through Sunday that will bring the chance for isolated showers.
Even outside of this potential focus, minimal capping combined with a slight westward retreat of ridging aloft, and richer moisture throughout the column compared to days past should support scattered thunderstorm development by mid-afternoon.
A cold front will bring showers and thunderstorms to northern Wisconsin Saturday afternoon and to central and east central Wisconsin Saturday evening.
922 PM PDT Fri Jul 19 2024 High pressure over the Southwest will bring a very hot weekend inland, along with very warm nights.
Moisture begins to build back in today as 500mb low pressure moves overhead. Clouds will keep high temperatures in the low to mid 80s today. With clouds and rain expected overnight, low temperatures will be a bit warmer in the mid to upper 60s.
The high pressure ridge extending from the Great Lakes back southwest into the Ozarks will remain as the prominent feature influencing weather across the region through tonight. Northerly flow in the low levels and lingering subsidence noted within the 800-600mb layer will mitigate any concerns for precipitation through much of the rest of the weekend. low level thermals support a seasonable day with highs in the low to mid 80s for the forecast area. Lows tonight will be a bit warmer in the low and mid 60s as the airmass further modifies and clouds increase.
A broad upper level trough located over the Midwest and sprawling southwestward through the southern Plains will be the main driver of the the weather today through tonight. High temperatures this afternoon should climb to the upper 90s and, with dewpoints in the low 60s, should allow instability values of 1500-2000 J/kg to develop. Models show an upper level impulse, possibly an MCV from yesterday evening's thunderstorms, rotating through the upper trough and into the Big Country this afternoon.
(This evening through Saturday night) Due to a deep upper level trough over the SE CONUS and a weak low pressure heading into central MS, a stationary front is lingering over the area.
(Today) Water vapor imagery and streamflow analysis indicates a mid to upper level trough axis along the middle and lower MS valley region. The trough axis and vorticity maximum over MS will shift east today while low level convergence persists at the surface through 8h.
This complex has produced several wind gusts of 60-65 mph, and although infrared cloud tops are gradually trending warmer, these storms will continue to produce strong outflows to near 50 mph for the next several hours. Synoptic pattern remains very static across North America through Sunday, with the strong dominant upper anticyclone over the Great Basin, and persist midlevel troughing from eastern Kansas into the Corn Belt. With models trimming another 1-2C at 850 mb, afternoon temperatures are expected to be restricted to the lower to mid 80s. This is quite the refreshing bargain for late July, when the normal highs are in the lower to mid 90s.
As a result, high temperatures may be a couple degrees cooler than initially forecast if smoke in the upper levels becomes thick enough to act as partial cloud cover.
658 AM EDT Sat Jul 20 2024 * High pressure ensures another day of dry conditions with high temperatures in the low 80s.
Daytimes highs this weekend are forecast to be a few degrees cooler compared to yesterday. The trough will also tap into a swath of monsoonal moisture and instability present over the Great Basin ridge.
However, the gradient is rather loose over the ERN US as the base of the trough turns a bit more SW TWD TX with ridging pinching in from the WRN Atlantic and weak onshore flow on the Gulf Coast near the base of the trough and weak flow over FL. In the lower levels, we have a moist SRLY fetch to feed any perturbation interactions moving around the upper trough base. Temperatures may be a degree or so warmer today in spots, but are overall similar with little changes expected for Sunday.
1023 AM EDT Sat Jul 20 2024 High pressure will continue fine summer weather with low humidity and plenty of sunshine across our region today. A moisture starved cold front will drop southward into the area tonight and Sunday, bringing a band of clouds and possibly an isolated shower or two, but most areas will stay dry.
630 AM EDT Sat Jul 20 2024 High pressure provides fair weather today. A cold front drops south tonight through Sunday that will bring the chance for isolated showers.
635 AM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024 (Today through Sunday Night) An upper level high pressure system is over the western U. with an upper trough over the Great Lakes and extending through the eastern U. Highs today and Sunday will be in the lower 80s to lower 90s.
621 AM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024 (Today through Sunday) The mid-level ridge over the Four Corners will slowly drift towards the west, as a mid-level trough moves over the Central U. However models keep the development of showers and thunderstorms on the low end. While the high temperatures for today and tomorrow are in the mid to upper 90s.
615 AM EDT Sat Jul 20 2024 High pressure in place through Sunday.
The synoptic pattern which looks to define the majority of this forecast period can be succinctly summarized as follows: a large area of ridging will dominate the western third of the CONUS, with its axis positioned over the western Rockies and intermountain West, while a trough of varying depth extends from the Great Lakes across the Midwest and occasionally down into the Plains. Today, however, may actually see a short-lived respite from the trough-induced activity. Highs will have the opportunity to climb into the lower 90s, and while dew points will be slightly lower than recently, they will still be just barely below the threshold of discomfort, with little in the way of any cooling breezes, and a warm and fairly muggy afternoon is in store nonetheless.
This activity is being driven by a weak shtrwv embedded within a broad upper trough axis over much of the region, coupled with a weak frontal boundary located from east TN WSW into the lower MS Valley.
Temperatures are generally in the low to middle 60s with light and variable winds. Current water vapor imagery nicely showing an upper level trough over the intersection of Minnesota, South Dakota, and North Dakota. Satellite shows some clouds over the FA, but mainly in the southern Red River Valley and MN Lakes country associated with this low. Temperatures will be in the 80s through the work week, possibly warming into the low 90s as the UL ridge gets compressed before flattening.
328 AM PDT Sat Jul 20 2024 High pressure over the Southwest will bring a very hot weekend inland along with very warm nights.
620 AM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024 (Today) Water vapor imagery and streamflow analysis indicates a mid to upper level trough axis along the middle and lower MS valley region. The trough axis and vorticity maximum over MS will shift east today while low level convergence persists at the surface through 8h.
1057 AM EDT Sat Jul 20 2024 High pressure extending across the lower Great Lakes will weaken on Sunday. High pressure will remain across the lower Great Lakes today.
643 AM EDT Sat Jul 20 2024 Seasonable temperatures and good chances for showers and thunderstorms will continue for most of the next seven days as Bermuda High offshore and the Piedmont Trough inland remain nearly stationary. A cold front just north and west of the area will remain near the area today and tonight as weak upper level energy approaches from the sw. Highs today should reach the upper 80s to around 90 with lows tonight in the low to mid 70s.
545 AM EDT Sat Jul 20 2024 Dry weather is expected for most of the area through Sunday night under high pressure. The exception today is a wave of low pressure could bring a few showers or thunderstorms to areas southeast of Pittsburgh. KEY MESSAGES: - Dry for much of the area under high pressure - Shower/thunderstorm chances SE of Pittsburgh with a wave of low pressure __________________________________________________________________ Made a few minor updates to the early morning forecast update. High temperatures should be similar, or a couple of degrees higher, than yesterday's readings with slightly higher 1000-500mb heights, and warmer 850mb temperatures.
723 AM EDT Sat Jul 20 2024 Dry weather is expected for most of the area through Sunday night under high pressure. The exception today is a wave of low pressure could bring a few showers or thunderstorms to areas southeast of Pittsburgh. KEY MESSAGES: - Dry for much of the area under high pressure - Shower/thunderstorm chances SE of Pittsburgh with a wave of low pressure __________________________________________________________________ Made a few minor updates to the early morning forecast update. High temperatures should be similar, or a couple of degrees higher, than yesterday's readings with slightly higher 1000-500mb heights, and warmer 850mb temperatures.
629 AM EDT Sat Jul 20 2024 High pressure will continue fine summer weather with low humidity across our region today, with passing cirrus across the southern zones, and bright sunshine to the north. A moisture starved cold front will drop southward into our zones tonight and Sunday, bringing a band of clouds.
615 AM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024 (Today and tonight) The synoptic-scale upper pattern will be pretty constant through sunrise Sunday with the large upper high over the Great Basin and a low over the upper Mississippi Valley.
611 AM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024 - Temperatures will trend warmer each day through the weekend; however, they will remain below normal for the next 7 days.