Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
(Through Monday) High pressure continues over our region, keeping steering flows slow and weak. Temperatures for the near term will have highs in the low 90s and overnight lows in the mid-70s.
1224 PM CDT Sun Jul 28 2024 (Today through Monday) A mid level closed low continues to rotate northward through the mid Mississippi River Valley this morning, while an amplified ridge axis extends from the north central Gulf coast to southeastern Canada. At the surface, ridging extends down the Appalachians, nudging into northeastern Alabama. The upper low will continue northward, open up, and merge with mean flow across the upper Midwest this morning. As the wave shifts eastward, the upper level ridge is suppressed southward and several impulses rotating through the trough will move across Central Alabama through Monday. Expect activity to continue overnight as the trough axis crosses the Tennessee Valley.
Due to persistent cloud cover and smoke, instability values are in the low 100s J/kg, which will help limit the strength of many storms. There is above normal moisture present in the low-mid levels, with PWATs between 0. Breezy WSW winds will accompany the warmer and drier conditions as well, with wind gusts in the 20-30s mph, highest west of Billings.
Accompanying the drier air are locally breezy afternoon southwest winds and slightly cooler temperatures.
(This evening through Monday) Upper ridge continues to build over the Southern Plains into Monday as our first afternoon of excessive heating will start. Will see a Cirrus shield over the Southern High Plains increasing across our area, although the high cloudiness should be very thin and not expected to impede afternoon heating.
Rain chances will come to an end tonight as global guidance highlights upper ridging building from the west to east through the overnight period. In addition to this, our SW flow regime will start to transition to a warmer and drier pattern tonight. Nighttime temperatures will drop in the low to mid 70s areawide. Later on Monday, a large, strong subtropical jet will build over the Southern Plains with a ridge axis extending eastward across the lower MS Valley. With dewpoints climbing into the upper 70s/ low 80s, 850mb temperatures reaching the low 20s deg C, and afternoon highs peaking into the low to mid 90s across our forecast area, this combination will yield heat indices in the 105-110 F deg range.
(This evening through Monday night) As the upper level ridge continues to build in, coverage of convection this afternoon has been highly reduced when compared to the last several days (or week).
The coverage of showers and storms will likely decrease this afternoon as the trough axis lifts through our area. Our upper air pattern begins to transition into a northwesterly flow as the day progresses with an upper high strengthening over Texas.
1126 AM CDT Sun Jul 28 2024 (Rest of Today) Satellite imagery shows an upper trough axis shifting eastward across the Tennessee Valley this morning.
A fairly large upper level ridge over the area is keeping a cap on things and not letting the storms become severe today. This ridge will begin to slide a bit SE into the northern Gulf allowing the upper level flow to become NWLY through Mon evening. At the surface there is a weak high pressure wedge that has set up mainly across eastern portions of the state.
Temperatures are expected to remain 3 to 6 degrees below normal Monday as a weak upper level trough sits over the area.
(Rest of today through Monday) Models and sfc analyses depict a trough/low complex dragging a sfc frontal boundary across the SE CONUS.
Low level moisture has been mixing out across the lower elevations with dew points falling into the 40s and 30s along the I-25 corridor. Farther east, 50 to around 60 dew points are still in place across the lower Arkansas River valley and along the KS border. Will continue to monitor this, though main impact will be to bump dew points up again across the plains overnight into Monday morning with the low end potential for some patch stratus far eastern areas towards morning. Otherwise, a flat upper ridge remains over the area on Monday with a slight increase in mid and high based moisture expected across southern areas in the afternoon and evening.
A cluster of thunderstorms were moving slowly across northern Minnesota this afternoon ahead of a cold front that was in northwest Minnesota into central South Dakota. A bigger threat will be heavy rainfall with training storms and a very warm/moist airmass with freezing levels around 13kft. Monday will feature highs in the lower to mid- eighties and chances for thunderstorms will continue with the frontal boundary moving through the area.
While the axis of broad ridging sits to the east, mean atmospheric flow over southeastern Arizona has become southerly. As the upper high drifts further east on Monday, flow aloft becomes a bit stronger (around 10 to near 20 kts at 500mb). With the ridge sitting to the east, daily chances for monsoon activity with a southerly component will continue. An interesting added factor will be a low pressure circulation, currently south of the Baja peninsula, which models currently have moving north towards southern Arizona around mid-week. As high pressure builds mid- week, high temperatures should rise a bit and minimum relative humidities should fall by a few percentage points.
1209 PM CDT Sun Jul 28 2024 (Today and tonight) Upper level ridging currently centered over southern AZ and NM will begin moving into the area today. For tonight, another warm, muggy night with lows in the low to mid 70s for most areas.
- Pattern shift to warm and wet with heavy rain possible Models remain in fair agreement, while fair weather will continue through the first half of the day, a negatively tilted upper level trough will be impetus to bring copious mid level moisture along with warm air advection that will begin a period of potential afternoon convection. Tomorrow will bring better CAPE values, with southerly warm air advection out ahead of a frontal boundary out ahead of the before mentioned trough.
Accompanying the drier air will be locally breezy afternoon southwest winds and slightly cooler temperatures. Breezy southwesterly winds have developed already this morning over most of northern Arizona due to flow around high pressure over NM and a trough moving through the NW United States.
1213 PM CDT Sun Jul 28 2024 (Today and tonight) After a few mornings of nuisance thunderstorms, no precipitation is expected this morning with the absence of any notable forcing as a ridge builds over the area. Upper heights slightly increased from yesterday will subsequently allow for highs to be a few degrees warmer.
(Monday through Sunday) Heat and humidity will be the story through the upcoming work week, as upper level ridging builds into the region.
121 PM EDT Sun Jul 28 2024 High pressure building from the north will bring a cooler and drier than normal air mass into early Monday before it shifts offshore for the rest of the week. These conditions are being brought by the NE flow that followed yesterday's cold frontal passage. The NE flow veers to southerly tonight as the center of high pressure is pushed a bit offshore.
The forecast looks dry the next 24 hours and warmer Monday as the upper level ridge builds across the Southern Plains and becomes more intense this week. (Monday night through next Sunday) An upper level ridge will dominate the weather across West Central Texas through the next 24 hours.
(Tonight) Showers and storms continue into the evening hours as an upper trough axis swings through the Southeast.
/NEW/ /Through Monday Afternoon/ North and Central Texas is currently located between two areas of high pressure, one across NM and another just south of the mouth of the Mississippi River. /Issued 236 AM CDT Sun Jul 28 2024/ /Monday Onward/ A streak of uncomfortably hot weather will begin at the start of the work week as a mid level ridge plants itself overhead.
Below average temperatures continue through mid-week as upper level troughing persists. Temperatures are expected to warm above average again by late week as upper level ridging builds. (This evening through tonight) Temperatures this afternoon will remain below seasonal averages as a trough axis remains over the region.
The northern periphery of the upper ridging over the Gulf will remain across the immediate coastal areas through tonight, with upper ridging then building north to the west of our forecast area on Monday as the upper troughing deepens somewhat along the US East Coast. At the surface, a very weak trough continues to linger across the immediate Gulf coast region. Highs on Monday will be quite warm, at least in the lower 90s across all of the area, and possibly mid 90s over western portions of the forecast area.
Upper-level ridging remains the dominant feature as a weak frontal boundary stalls out over N Florida. The upper-level ridge will remain centered just west of the FL peninsula for the next day-and-a-half or so before stronger subtropical ridging builds back in from the east. A weak onshore component is expected near the coast during the afternoon, with the highest coverage of storms expected during the late afternoon and evening as well as overnight.
The high PWATs will lead to locally heavy rain with the stronger cells, but the recent dry period should curtail any hydro concerns. The same boundary will remain in the area through mid week, but its exact location will be dictated by subsequent rounds of storms that will ride the ridge. A closed low drifts over the region this weekend, keeping chances for mainly diurnal showers and storms in the forecast. Moisture will continue to stream north into northern Indiana this afternoon into tonight in advance an upper level trough approaching from the MO/IL border. Flight conditions should primarily remain in the VFR category this afternoon into this evening, though low probabilities remain for a time of MVFR as sfc dewpoints surge into the low 70s.
Wind threat overall appears to be on the lower end again today with DCAPE from the 12Z TWC sounding coming in at ~960 J/kg, but cannot rule out a few strong to severe winds out of the stronger storms. Ensemble means have the high center reconsolidating to our east the first half of the week, with a little stronger southerly flow opening the door for a weak inverted trough to push into SE AZ around mid week. A strong H7 theta-e ridge should extend further north through most of AZ and even northward as this happens. As high pressure builds mid- week, high temperatures should rise a bit and minimum relative humidities should fall by a few percentage points.
(Today and tonight) Upper level ridging currently centered over southern AZ and NM will begin moving into the area today. For tonight, another warm, muggy night with lows in the low to mid 70s for most areas. (Monday night through next Sunday) An upper level ridge will dominate the weather across West Central Texas through the next 24 hours.
1137 AM CDT Sun Jul 28 2024 (Today through Monday night) Latest models runs continue to see the upper-level trough to our north slowly exit east as high pressure builds over the Panhandles.
1237 PM CDT Sun Jul 28 2024 (Today through Monday afternoon) High pressure finally migrates east into West Texas today beginning a warming trend that will last into mid-week.
A NW flow pattern sets up this week, with potential for multiple rounds of storms to ride the ridge set up over the Central Plains and potentially impact our area.
The lower conditions should improve to VFR by 18-20Z for most areas.
(This evening through Monday) The center of an upper level ridge will move closer overhead the rest of today squashing any convective chances. The ridge will move directly overhead on Monday leading to even warmer temperatures. Surface cyclogenesis and pressure troughing in the lee of the Rockies will bring south to southwest winds to West Texas. Monsoon moisture will stream northward on the west side of the ridge in New Mexico on Monday. Isolated convection is likely in vicinity of the surface pressure trough in eastern New Mexico but will remain in New Mexico for the duration of the afternoon.
This, along with the presence of an overall cooler air mass, is resulting in another day of below normal temperatures across interior NorCal. The upper level pattern is expected to shift beginning on Monday as upper level troughing is pushed eastward toward the Intermountain West.
1207 PM CDT Sun Jul 28 2024 (Today through Monday) An upper level low near the Kansas/Missouri border will open and lift northeast through the day. What's left of the mid and upper level shear axis is forecast to pinch off into an inverted trough across the Rio Grande Plains and southern Edwards Plateau today and eventually a weak, compact low tonight and Monday. However, isolated showers may continue Sunday night into Monday morning near the weak mid and upper level low, in an areas of better low and mid level moisture and forcing near San Antonio and along the U. Warmer temperatures are forecast Monday, with highs in the low to mid 90s across the Hill Country, I-35 corridor, and Coastal Plains to upper 90s to around 100 along the Rio Grande.
Visible satellite shows some cloud streamers extending off of the Lower and Middle Keys, reaffirming that the southeasterly flow is still locked in place despite the slight weakening of the dominating ridge pattern.
202 PM EDT Sun Jul 28 2024 Warm and unsettled weather is expected through the upcoming week as a series of low pressure troughs move across the region. Clouds will begin to increase overnight in moist advection ahead of the approaching Midwest trough.
Showers and thunderstorms will continue to move through the Mid- South through this evening as a mid-level trough swings through the Middle Mississippi Valley.
430 PM PDT Sun Jul 28 2024 Seasonal temperatures continue as a upper trough over the northwest US continues to guide conditions across northern California and southern Oregon.
646 PM CDT Sun Jul 28 2024 Showers and thunderstorms will continue to move through the Mid- South through this evening as a mid-level trough swings through the Middle Mississippi Valley.
651 PM EDT Sun Jul 28 2024 Warm and unsettled weather is expected through the upcoming week as a series of low pressure troughs move across the region. Clouds will begin to increase overnight in moist advection ahead of the approaching Midwest trough.
The heat is back and is nearing its peak with heat indices in the range of 105-109 which jives well with the previous shifts SPS spotlighting the high heat index values of 103- 108. The forecast for the next 36 hours looks a bit more typical for late July as mid-level high pressure builds over Texas and the upper trough that brought all the beneficial rain last week fills in as it drifts westward. Highs to range from the low to mid 90s from the coastal counties to the mid to upper 90s inland west and north. However, add in the higher surface humidity heat indices will have no problem exceeding 100 degrees with a few locations in the RGV and along the coast nearing 110 degrees.
Currently - Broad and weak surface through lower level ridging is in place across the broader area. This weakness is largely due to a couple of low pressure systems. Short Term Update - Weak fractured lower level ridging will remain across our area through the overnight period. Expect lows in the lower 80s with dew points remaining in the mid 70s. Weak ridging across the broader area will result in light breezes through the overnight period.
621 PM CDT Sun Jul 28 2024 (This evening through Monday) The center of an upper level ridge will move closer overhead the rest of today squashing any convective chances. The ridge will move directly overhead on Monday leading to even warmer temperatures. Surface cyclogenesis and pressure troughing in the lee of the Rockies will bring south to southwest winds to West Texas. Monsoon moisture will stream northward on the west side of the ridge in New Mexico on Monday. Isolated convection is likely in vicinity of the surface pressure trough in eastern New Mexico but will remain in New Mexico for the duration of the afternoon.
609 PM CDT Sun Jul 28 2024 (This evening through Monday) Upper ridge continues to build over the Southern Plains into Monday as our first afternoon of excessive heating will start. Will see a Cirrus shield over the Southern High Plains increasing across our area, although the high cloudiness should be very thin and not expected to impede afternoon heating.
532 PM CDT Sun Jul 28 2024 (Tonight) Showers and storms continue into the evening hours as an upper trough axis swings through the Southeast.
Warm and muggy overnight, with lows in the low to mid 70s.
Convection chances will mainly be defined to locations just west of and across Cumberland Plateau Region through overnight hours as trough axis continues to push eastward through our area. The coverage of showers and storms will likely decrease this afternoon as the trough axis lifts through our area. Our upper air pattern begins to transition into a northwesterly flow as the day progresses with an upper high strengthening over Texas.
pdf A weak cold front currently extends across just south of the FL/GA border. It will remain muggy overnight with temperatures in the lower to mid 70s, with some upper 70s near the coast.
804 PM EDT Sun Jul 28 2024 (Through Monday) High pressure continues over our region, keeping steering flows slow and weak. Temperatures for the near term will have highs in the low 90s and overnight lows in the mid-70s.
Otherwise, dry conditions prevail through Monday as an upper trough off the coast enters the Pacific Northwest.
During peak heating, dewpoints will be influenced by both the reinforced moisture transport in the lower levels and vigorous surface heating/boundary layer mixing.
Light boundary layer flow will persist on Monday with deep tropical moisture holding over the forecast area with PCPW values likely in the highest 90th percentile. Upper-level ridging remains the dominant feature as a weak frontal boundary stalls out over N Florida. The upper-level ridge will remain centered just west of the FL peninsula for the next day-and-a-half or so before stronger subtropical ridging builds back in from the east. A weak onshore component is expected near the coast during the afternoon, with the highest coverage of storms expected during the late afternoon and evening as well as overnight.
Coastal areas will remain cooler with occasional to persistent low clouds and periods patchy, coastal drizzle.
913 PM CDT Sun Jul 28 2024 00Z upper air analysis shows a mid-level trough bisecting the Lower Mississippi Valley this evening with an upper-level ridge centered over New Mexico. Drier air is filtering in behind the mid-level trough as indicated by the 00Z KLZK sounding. CJC Showers and thunderstorms will continue to move through the Mid- South through this evening as a mid-level trough swings through the Middle Mississippi Valley.
Seasonal temperatures continue as a upper trough over the northwest US continues to guide conditions across northern California and southern Oregon.
- Warmer temperatures return today with highs in the 90s in most areas.
1039 PM CDT Sun Jul 28 2024 The new pattern is here! Latest 500 mb RAP analysis places high pressure overtop the northeast GoM; its northwest fringe located just over the LCH CWA. This high pressure dome will remain in control, slowly creeping to the west over the next several days. Expecting less convective coverage on Monday as the high pressure builds in our region.
Aloft, an expansive ridge will continue to build into the region from the Srn Plains today. The heat will continue to build on Tuesday as the ridge settles in overtop of AR. This doesn't mean conditions will feel much better because high amounts of low-level moisture will offset any cooler temperatures.
1043 PM CDT Sun Jul 28 2024 (This evening through Monday) Upper ridge continues to build over the Southern Plains into Monday as our first afternoon of excessive heating will start. Will see a Cirrus shield over the Southern High Plains increasing across our area, although the high cloudiness should be very thin and not expected to impede afternoon heating.
Instability should peak as temperatures reach the low 90s across SE GA and around 90 across the SC Lowcountry by mid-afternoon. Using a blend of MOS, low temperatures are forecast to range from the low 70s inland to the mid 70s along the coast.
An upper level trough will reach the west coast during the mid-day hours, increasing the wind and producing critical fire weather conditions in some fire weather zones. This trough will cross through on Tuesday, spreading light precipitation starting in the west late tonight and continuing into the evening Tue. The trough will exit late Tue night, leaving behind a brief period of west to northwest wind.
1134 PM CDT Sun Jul 28 2024 00Z upper air analysis shows a mid-level trough bisecting the Lower Mississippi Valley this evening with an upper-level ridge centered over New Mexico. Drier air is filtering in behind the mid-level trough as indicated by the 00Z KLZK sounding. CJC Showers and thunderstorms will continue to move through the Mid- South through this evening as a mid-level trough swings through the Middle Mississippi Valley.
Seasonal temperatures continue as a upper trough over the northwest US continues to guide conditions across northern California and southern Oregon. A dry cold front will move over the area late Monday morning through Tuesday.
1220 AM CDT Mon Jul 29 2024 (This evening through Monday) The center of an upper level ridge will move closer overhead the rest of today squashing any convective chances. The ridge will move directly overhead on Monday leading to even warmer temperatures. Surface cyclogenesis and pressure troughing in the lee of the Rockies will bring south to southwest winds to West Texas. Monsoon moisture will stream northward on the west side of the ridge in New Mexico on Monday. Isolated convection is likely in vicinity of the surface pressure trough in eastern New Mexico but will remain in New Mexico for the duration of the afternoon.
An anticyclone sitting across the eastern Gulf of Mexico will help to pinwheel some moisture down from up north. This feature will impinge on the anticyclone over the eastern Gulf of Mexico and may lead to an area of better convergence and source of lift for additional rounds of convection.
Warmer temperatures are then expected by midweek along with continuing daily chances of afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Overnight lows are expected in the lower 70s. PW values increase toward the 2" mark, and generally remain there for a couple of days with troughing across New England. Temperatures are expected to continue to be near to slightly below normal with highs in the upper 80s or low 90s and lows in the lower 70s with plenty of cloud cover.
1048 PM CDT Sun Jul 28 2024 (This evening through Monday night) As the upper level ridge continues to build in, coverage of convection this afternoon has been highly reduced when compared to the last several days (or week).
High temperatures are expected to be mainly in the lower 90s for most of the forecast area. For tonight, convection will gradually diminish after sunset with overnight lows generally in the low to mid 70s.
(Today) The heat will build today as an upper ridge builds over the area.
Trough energy clips northern Elko county on Tuesday resulting in increased afternoon clouds along with a 5 to 10 percent chance of thunderstorms up along the Idaho border.
Due to persistent cloud cover and smoke, instability values are in the low 100s J/kg, which will help limit the strength of many storms. There is above normal moisture present in the low-mid levels, with PWATs between 0. Breezy WSW winds will accompany the warmer and drier conditions as well, with wind gusts in the 20-30s mph, highest west of Billings. The brief ridge breaks down, Tuesday, as another upper trough moves across the PNW. High temperatures on Tuesday will be in the mid 80s to upper 90sF, cooler temperatures moving from east to west.