Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Temperatures at available surface observations along the Keys are ranging from the upper 70s for island communities who have seen recent shower activity, to the lower 80s in the dry locations. These features will continue to break the ridging that typically bridges the Keys this time of year for at least the next 36 hours or so.
Late this afternoon into tonight a warm front moves through from south to north. This lift could set up more north of M-20, hence the higher PoPs overnight (50 to 70 percent).
Midnight satellite loop showed the weakening upper low moving away to the east and taking the clouds with it. Surface obs showed locally breezy winds and temperatures near to slightly cooler than 24 hours ago.
235 AM MDT Wed Jun 25 2025 - Isolated showers and thunderstorms today, mainly over the higher terrain, with a few strong storms possible for eastern Montana.
(This evening through Wednesday) We will sit across the western edge of the high pressure system located across the southeastern U. Highs will remain in the lower to middle 90s.
114 AM EDT Wed Jun 25 2025 - Showers and lightning storms gradually increase in coverage through the latter half of the week; a few strong storms with gusty winds possible each afternoon - Heat and humidity continue with peak heat indices reaching the low 100s - Moderate risk of rip currents continues at area beaches Now-Tonight. Temperatures have reached the mid/upper 80s along the coast to the low/mid 90s across the interior.
- Slightly warmer conditions are expected this weekend. South to southwesterly flow aloft will persist through the day as the upper ridge remains to the east while a gradually deamplifying trough sits to the west slowly moving east towards the Central Plains. Subsidence from the western edge of the upper ridge will keep near-zero convective chances for areas off the Caprock. A wide range of highs are expected today with the low to mid 90s off the Caprock and low 80s to low 90s on the Caprock as mostly cloudy skies will hinder daytime heating closer to the TX/NM state line.
An influx of moisture is expected to continue overnight into Wednesday as Southeast Texas remains positioned on the SW edge of a mid- upper level ridge.
(Today and tonight) A weak disturbance or two are expected to move along the western periphery of an upper ridge to our east. Otherwise, hot and humid conditions are expected to persist today with highs mainly in the low to mid 90s, and heat index values around 100 degrees.
Arizona remains sandwiched between a trough to the west and a strong ridge of high pressure to the east. Dry, west/southwest flow with the trough however results in moisture drastically drops off across western and central Arizona, keeping dry conditions in the forecast for most. Given the high-based nature of this activity, little to no precipitation is expected, with gusty winds being the only threat.
Upper level ridge of high pressure early this morning was centered over the Tennessee and Ohio Valley. The ridge will allow for heat to build and very unpleasant conditions to persist throughout the mid south.
This stout ridging surface and aloft will change very little through tonight. This will lead to warmer than normal temperatures in the mid 90s this afternoon.
Upper low is finally leaving the area and allowing another weak upper trough in the PacNW to get closer to northern NV and CA. Wind prone areas, mountain ridges and west slopes will have stronger gusts up to 35-40 mph in the afternoon and evening.
Discussion: A large high pressure ridge remains over the area today, with little change in its position from yesterday. Under this ridge, we will have another day of hot and humid conditions, with the Heat Index reaching near or just over 105 for much of the Tennessee Valley and Cumberland Plateau. Convection should have no problem breaking through a weak cap in the early to mid afternoon, especially in the higher terrain and in NE TN/SW VA where the cap is weakest (the slightly stronger cap will have greater effect west of I-75).
1226 AM CDT Wed Jun 25 2025 The axis of the large elongated upper ridge extending from north central Mexico to New England will remain mostly fixed going into midweek. The weather gets rather interesting from late Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday night as the center of an upper low pressure area north of the Bahamas approaches the Florida east coast. There should be enough mixing of drier air aloft where surface dewpoints will lower to around 70 degrees, keeping maximum apparent temperatures (heat indices) below 108 degrees, which is the lower end of our Heat Advisory criteria.
Persistence forecast prevails again today as the high pressure ridge remains in place to our east, with forecast high temperatures today in the 89-92 range and heat indices in the 95-101 range. Overnight minimum temperatures in the low 70s tonight.
Southwest flow will direct warmer air into the region on Wednesday as highs are expected to reach or exceed 90F in the Treasure Valley. There is a weak cold front that may initiate a shower/thunderstorm as it moves into Baker County Wednesday afternoon, otherwise dry conditions prevail.
(Today and tonight) Deep south to southeasterly flow will persist across the area again today, with West Central Texas remaining on the western periphery of the upper high to our east. Highs today will be in the low to mid 90s, with lows tonight in the low to mid 70s.
509 AM MDT Wed Jun 25 2025 - Patchy fog will develop once again Wednesday morning over portions of the High Plains. - Warmer and drier weather expected for the end of the week. Southeast flow has allowed for ample moisture advection into the High Plains this morning. Dewpoints in the 50s and 60s will be favorable for storm development, assuming the low stratus can burn off.
While most of the development will remain anchored to the higher terrain, the push of synoptic lift could provide enough support for a few showers and storms to move off the terrain into adjacent valleys.
Near the coast, clouds should linger which will keep temperatures cooler. Highs for interior locations will range from the low 80s to mid 90s while coastal areas or areas stuck with stratus have temperatures range from the upper 50s to mid 70s.
A trough of low pressure will slowly lift out of the region, resulting in a west to east zonal flow.
The highest rainfall amounts are expected along and north of I-90.
Into Thursday, a closed upper low off the Florida Atlantic coast meanders west to over Florida on the south side of a strong upper high centered over the Tennessee.
An influx of moisture is expected to continue overnight into Wednesday as Southeast Texas remains positioned on the SW edge of a mid- upper level ridge. A drier airmass will fill in the area Thursday as the upper ridge moves west and encompasses Southeast Texas.
(Tonight through Thursday night) The weather pattern over the last several days is expected to continue as a mid-level high pressure persists over the mid-Atlantic and Southeast US, thus slightly reducing sinking air over deep south Texas and the Rio Grande Valley. East-southeasterly to southeasterly surface winds of generally 5 to 15 mph (gusting to 20-25 mph during the day) and similar temperatures are likely, maximizing in the low to mid 90s in the afternoon and minimizing in the 70s overnight.
The highest heat index readings of 100 to 105 degrees will occur today and Thursday.
708 AM EDT Wed Jun 25 2025 (Today through Thursday) More unsettled pattern is on the way for South FL as the ridge over the eastern US starts to flatten out, and an upper level low (TUTT) approaches the east coast of Florida by this evening. Forecast soundings show cooler air aloft with 500 mb temps of around -10 C. Low temps tonight will range from the lower 70s over inland SW FL to near 80 across the east coast metro.
pdf Tropical Upper Tropospheric Trough (TUTT) was spinning slowly westward across the northwestern Bahamas. High pressure has shifted eastward over the Carolinas. At the surface, high pressure across the western Atlantic will build across the Florida peninsula through the day.
This stout ridging surface and aloft will change very little through tonight. This will lead to warmer than normal temperatures in the mid 90s this afternoon. Heat should moderate later this week into the weekend with slightly "cooler" high temps in the low 90s, and increased rain and storm chances. Steering flow around the high will allow this complex to propagate eastward into eastern portions of our area, though the extent is a bit uncertain as it moves into increasingly unfavorable environment. Late week, a weak upper low begins to shift into the area from Florida as the upper ridge begins to break down and shift east, which leads to a steady increase in rain chances across the area, with highest chances in the east.
- It is still unclear where the highest amounts will fall and could occur anywhere across the southern half of MN and western WI. This activity is being fed by deep moisture transport ahead of a deep trough over the Rockies and enhanced by a strengthening low-level jet across the Central Plains. There is still very little to grab onto regarding where exactly the highest flash flood potential could be with models continuing to be highly variable.
This activity is likely to hold through the overnight with model agreement seeing the present low pressure system to our west and strong high pressure to our east. As we move into Thursday, model agreement does see the present high pressure system build back west, which could see chance become more concentrated to of our west. Meanwhile in terms of severe potential, chances continue to trend on the low end with relatively low CAPE values present along side little to now effective bulk shear to keep storms organized.
532 AM MDT Wed Jun 25 2025 - High pressure will keep skies clear with zero precipitation today.
Upper level ridge of high pressure early this morning was centered over the Tennessee and Ohio Valley. The ridge will allow for heat to build and very unpleasant conditions to persist throughout the mid south. The eastward progress of the aforementioned feature will move the H500 ridge of high pressure over southern Arkansas and northern Louisiana this weekend. The orientation of the ridge will promote a continuation of hot and humid conditions through the weekend.
Another sultry day is underway acrs the FA w/ local sfc obs indicating area temps in the low to mid 90s, and dewpoint temps in the low to mid 70s, w/ heat index values in excess of 100 to 105 degrees acrs Cntrl to Ern AR. Of note, the last few runs of NBM guidance depict 25th percentile MaxT's still residing in the low 90s over much of AR, w/ median to 75th percentile (more likely daily scenarios) in the mid to upper 90s. Along w/ incrsg rain chances Mon night and thru the remainder of the PD, cooler temperatures (relatively speaking) and heat index values below 100 degrees may be seen as well, and after a few weeks of typical Arkansas summer, better rain chances and cooler temps are certainly worth monitoring.
Highs today for inland areas are expected to be 5 to 10 degrees warmer than Wednesday, with only a few degrees of warming near the coast. For the end of the week into the weekend, an area of high pressure from south of the border will build near the Four Corners region.
(Thursday night through next Wednesday) Currently, we have a large trough over the western CONUS, with a strong upper ridge over the eastern half of the U. However, there is an upper level low working its way into the southeastern U. This upper low will weaken the ridging over the eastern states over the next few days. At the same time, the upper trough over the western U.
(Rest of Today and Tonight) High pressure at the surface and aloft over the eastern Lower-48 was controlling our general weather situation. Area temperatures at 11 AM have soared mostly into the lower 90s with light and variable winds. With high pressure in place, overall vertical shear values are low. Low temperatures should range in the low/mid 70s.
333 PM EDT Wed Jun 25 2025 Relief to the heat and humidity tonight as a cold front moves through.
124 PM EDT Wed Jun 25 2025 (Today through Thursday) More unsettled pattern is on the way for South FL as the ridge over the eastern US starts to flatten out, and an upper level low (TUTT) approaches the east coast of Florida by this evening. Forecast soundings show cooler air aloft with 500 mb temps of around -10 C. Low temps tonight will range from the lower 70s over inland SW FL to near 80 across the east coast metro.
(This evening through Thursday night) Ridging aloft has kept convective coverage minimal today across the region.
Similar to yesterday, hot and humid conditions will continue across our area as hi-res guidance continues to show the upper-level ridge over the southeast CONUS. Overnight lows will drop to the low to mid 70s areawide. Heat should moderate later this week into the weekend with slightly "cooler" high temps in the low 90s, and increased rain and storm chances. Late week, a weak upper low begins to shift into the area from Florida as the upper ridge begins to break down and shift east, which leads to a steady increase in rain chances across the area, with highest chances in the east.
Overnight lows tonight will continue to be in the low to mid 70s that they have been for the last few nights. With an upper-level ridge firmly over the region, this warm trend will continue into tomorrow and tomorrow night. More afternoon storms will be accompanied by temperatures in the low 90s in most areas, but parts of LA and AR will be flirting with the upper 90s.
This front will then move back north as a warm front on Thursday. A warm front will move north into the Interstate 94 corridor early this afternoon.
Area remains on the edge of summertime high pressure ridge centered over the Tennessee Valley.
The region will continue to be dominated by the high pressure centered across the southeastern CONUS. This high will shift a bit to the west, bringing a reinforcing surge of drier air into the region.
Tonight into Thursday sees the frontal boundary lifting north as a warm front keeping scattered showers and storms in the forecast. Exact timing and placement of any thunderstorm activity remains unclear given the reliance on the location of the warm frontal boundary.
Increased cloud cover associated with ongoing precipitation is keeping temperatures across the island chain in the lower 80s regardless of if rain has fallen. CIMSS mean steering layer (250-850 mb) streamlines note that the mid to upper level trough is centered just west of The Bahamas. While mesoscale forcing from boundaries still looks to be the dominating force in the forecast, this extra ventilation from this troughing may help some stronger storms amid shallow showers, especially as more moist air advects in from the east. From synopsis, a retrograding upper-level low currently centered east of the Florida Space Coast will support weakened ridging over the next couple of days.
1219 PM CDT Wed Jun 25 2025 - An upper level ridge will begin to move to the west today and this will push better moisture values into southeast Texas where the higher rain chances will be found. - The upper level ridge will be near the area on Thursday helping to bring about slightly lower rain chances for entire forecast area while the typical summer heat persists with max afternoon heat index values from 100 to 105 degrees. - By the end of the week into the weekend, the forecast area will be between a ridge to the west and trough to the east.
Aside from that, most of our area will remain dry, with the only impact from the cold frontal passage being breezy winds from to west/northwest. Temperatures on Thursday will be a few degrees cooler than today following the frontal passage.
Increased cloud cover associated with ongoing precipitation is keeping temperatures across the island chain in the lower 80s regardless of if rain has fallen. CIMSS mean steering layer (250-850 mb) streamlines note that the mid to upper level trough is centered just west of The Bahamas. While mesoscale forcing from boundaries still looks to be the dominating force in the forecast, this extra ventilation from this troughing may help some stronger storms amid shallow showers, especially as more moist air advects in from the east. These features will continue to break the ridging that typically bridges the Keys this time of year for at least the next 36 hours or so.
1137 AM MDT Wed Jun 25 2025 - High pressure will keep skies clear with zero precipitation today.
High temperatures will remain near to slightly above normal in the low to mid 90s.
* More widespread storms expected tomorrow across northern and western Missouri as weak trough builds south.
- Staying seasonably warm through the weekend with highs in the low 90s.
Surface ridging remains present over much of ERN Conus as well as in the upper levels for today. This change will be due to the break down of the upper ridge as a low pressure feature nudges toward us from FL.
Troughing out in the Western U. S sits beneath an expansive ridge of high pressure. Tomorrow should be slightly drier, though chances of storms remain mainly in the Coastal Plains once again waning by sunset as the ridge creeps slowly westward and covers more of our area. As such temperatures are expected to be a touch warmer as well with highs in the low to mid 90s.
The trough at the surface is modeled to eject slightly eastward over the next 24 hours, and by posing a focus for surface moisture convergence over the lower plains counties, a return to a Marginal risk for severe is outlooked for Thursday afternoon for areas east of a Hays to Minneola line.
For Thursday, upper ridge begins to weaken with greater coverage of afternoon/evening storms anticipated. Increasing moisture arriving Thursday brings higher rain chances and slightly cooler temperatures through the weekend.
This wave as well as high pressure located over the TN Valley has aided in providing the northern plains unseasonably high moisture values. Across south-central Minnesota, a warm front continues to push its way northward.
1234 PM CDT Wed Jun 25 2025 (Today through Thursday) Tonight through Thursday morning, upper level ridging will build in to dominate the upper level pattern. Highs will be in the mid 90s with heat index values in the low to mid 100s.
Heat Risk will remain moderate (level 2 of 4) over the Columbia Basin today due to the low RHs and warming temps, though with no concerns for critical conditions at this time.
Highs on Thursday to range from the mid to upper 80s along the coast to the lower 90s inland.
As the high pressure over the Tennessee Valley continues to shift east the flow will transition more southwesterly aloft. Right now we're not outlooked for any severe weather and given the warmer air aloft as well as the very moist environment, it just doesn't seem likely for damaging winds or large hail, despite ML CAPE values in the 1000-2500 J/kg range.
- The upper level ridge will be near the area on Thursday helping to bring about slightly lower rain chances for entire forecast area while the typical summer heat persists with max afternoon heat index values from 100 to 105 degrees. - By the end of the week into the weekend, the forecast area will be between a ridge to the west and trough to the east.
A weak and mostly dry cold front (with gusts to 30 mph) in SE Oregon will move through the area overnight.
613 PM CDT Wed Jun 25 2025 Another sultry day is underway acrs the FA w/ local sfc obs indicating area temps in the low to mid 90s, and dewpoint temps in the low to mid 70s, w/ heat index values in excess of 100 to 105 degrees acrs Cntrl to Ern AR. Of note, the last few runs of NBM guidance depict 25th percentile MaxT's still residing in the low 90s over much of AR, w/ median to 75th percentile (more likely daily scenarios) in the mid to upper 90s. Along w/ incrsg rain chances Mon night and thru the remainder of the PD, cooler temperatures (relatively speaking) and heat index values below 100 degrees may be seen as well, and after a few weeks of typical Arkansas summer, better rain chances and cooler temps are certainly worth monitoring.
634 PM CDT Wed Jun 25 2025 - The upper level ridge will be near the area on Thursday helping to bring about slightly lower rain chances for entire forecast area while the typical summer heat persists with max afternoon heat index values from 100 to 105 degrees. - By the end of the week into the weekend, the forecast area will be between a ridge to the west and trough to the east.
Breezy winds will be occurring through the area this evening as gusts reach 20-30kts, with the highest winds over KDLS.
518 PM CDT Wed Jun 25 2025 (Tonight) Strong early summertime heating and higher instability, with mid afternoon temperatures across the Tennessee Valley into the low/mid 90s and dewpoints in the low/mid 70s.
An upper level low continues to churn slowly westward into the Florida Peninsula this evening. This is reflected by troughing through the lower levels with hints of it at the surface. In addition, we are west of the lower level trough axis, and consequently, west of the richest moisture and best confluence. The upper low will continue to lumber westward into the Florida Peninsula overnight and stall. As a result, the lower level trough will ride a bit further west and northwestward closer to our area. A disorganized trough workings its way westward across Cuba and a weakened western flank of the Atlantic ridge is resulting in moderate easterly breezes across Keys waters. The trough will push further westward through our area overnight.
648 PM CDT Wed Jun 25 2025 (This evening through Thursday night) Ridging aloft has kept convective coverage minimal today across the region.
Latest radar still shows scattered activity across the area and as well in southwest Florida but this activity will gradually weaken and move offshore over the next couple of hours with conditions then dry over land areas for the remainder of the night, though isolated/scattered activity may linger across marine zones overnight with lows dropping in the low/mid 70s in most areas.
718 PM EDT Wed Jun 25 2025 Relief to the heat and humidity tonight as a cold front moves through.
1044 PM EDT Wed Jun 25 2025 Relief to the heat and humidity tonight as a cold front moves through.
In response, passing high clouds are forecast to be common overnight tonight as the CWA remains on the western periphery of a dome of high pressure.
The strong ridge aloft, the driver of our prolonged duration heat headlines, will be breaking down and dirtying over these last 48 hours of its life.
A closed upper low over southern Florida meanders north to over the eastern Southeast into the weekend. Temperatures see a bit of a downturn as the upper ridge over the Southeast weakens.
124 AM EDT Thu Jun 26 2025 Relief to the heat and humidity tonight as a cold front moves through.
Northern Michigan lies on the "cooler" northern periphery with low amplitude ridging overhead. Expansive 1024mb high pressure sits over Ontario aiding to bring dry northeast winds locally and keeping more active weather focused to our south near a stationary boundary situated downstate into the Ohio Valley. Pattern Forecast: Low pressure continues to trek across the region Friday morning before exiting stage right Friday afternoon. High pressure to follow, at least briefly, to start the weekend.
Water vapor imagery depicts a pulse of dry air wrapping around over South Florida in a pattern characteristic of a Tropical Upper Tropospheric Trough (TUTT). General ridging will redevelop across the north Atlantic and sustain east to southeasterlies across the island chain.