Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Near the surface, ridging associated with high pressure centered over the Carolinas will gradually lose its influence over the local area, with a warm front lifting slowly northward across SE TX and SW LA. Temperatures have warmed across SE Ok and SW AR to eliminate the threat for freezing rain and the transition to all rain across these areas will help melt any ice that did accumulate. Light icing is beginning to develop across bridges and overpasses in northern McCurtain county. An upper-trough across the west coast will deepen across the desert southwest through the short term period allowing for a general southwest flow setup across the ArkLaTex.
310 PM EST Mon Jan 22 2024 High pressure offshore will bring a significant warmup this week, but also a fair amount of clouds.
1214 PM EST Mon Jan 22 2024 High pressure will pass off the Atlantic coast tonight, allowing southwesterly winds to develop which will bring a return of warmer air from the Gulf coast region. Gulf moisture will return as well for the middle of the week, bringing periods of rain showers to the lower Mid-Atlantic.
1133 AM CST Mon Jan 22 2024 - Ice accumulations from freezing rain may lead to some impacts today, mainly west of a line from Albion, Illinois, to Dexter, Missouri. The highest chance for icing remains in the Ozarks and near vicinity in southeast Missouri, into southern Illinois to around the I-57 and I-64 junction. Elsewhere, temperatures largely rise and remain above freezing before the rain arrives.
1040 AM CST Mon Jan 22 2024 - No freezing drizzle occurring in SE ND or MN and risk for that is ending as winds turn north.
247 PM EST Mon Jan 22 2024 High pressure in place across the region shifts east as a trough lifts to the north from the central Gulf. This trough will allow for a few showers across the north Tuesday and Tuesday night as ridging remains across the peninsula and keeps an east to southeast flow and allows temperatures and moisture across the area to rise well above normal.
With temperatures falling below freezing, slick spots may develop in areas of dense fog, especially on elevated surfaces.
543 PM CST Mon Jan 22 2024 (Through tonight) Temperatures have been slow to warm across the area early this afternoon, but most places have risen to or above the freezing mark at this hour, therefore any further icing will be very minimal and isolated through the afternoon. Bowlan (Tuesday through Monday) The rest of the workweek is expect to be dominated by western CONUS longwave troughing, with deep layer southerly flow continuing to pump moisture into the region. Continued thick cloud cover along with fog and drizzle will limit high temperatures a bit, but still much warmer temperatures are expected through the middle of the week than what has been seen in the last ten days.
Current surface analysis places trough along the Rockies, with high over northern Saskatchewan/Manitoba. Temperature forecast actually gets a little tricky as we get later in the week as probabilistic guidance is suggesting notably warmer temperatures. With that said, this will be something that bears watching over the next few days to see how things trend and will not be surprised at all if some locations end up a fair amount warmer than currently forecast by late week.
-Bernhart Afternoon Discussion: Today through Tuesday: A stagnant airmass with a stationary front in place over central MT will keep the area socked in with low cloud and scattered areas of freezing fog through early Tuesday afternoon. -Stoinskers UPDATED: 2100Z FLIGHT CATEGORY RANGE: MVFR - LIFR DISCUSSION: The low cloud deck will remain in place, and there is high (80 percent) confidence this will continue through 18Z Tuesday. There is moderate (50 percent) confidence that TAF sites will be affected by scattered areas of freezing fog from 03Z through 15Z tonight.
526 PM CST Mon Jan 22 2024 - Winter Weather Advisory posted for tonight for another round of freezing rain. - There may be some more freezing rain Tuesday night.
525 PM CST Mon Jan 22 2024 (Tonight through Tuesday night) An upper level trough covers the southwestern part of the country this afternoon with southwesterly flow over South Texas. The low level flow is weak with a poorly defined pressure field.
(This evening through Tuesday) Precipitation continues to lift northward this afternoon across central and eastern portions of Oklahoma, with temperatures now above freezing across most of the area. However, we've had a few sites across central Oklahoma that have been hovering right near freezing for much of the day , with accumulated ice being slower to melt in these areas. Temperatures will be close to freezing across northwest Oklahoma Tuesday night, but current expectation is they will remain just above the freezing mark while precipitation is falling to keep things as just a cold rain.
In fact, areas north of Interstate 30, where freezing rain was observed this morning, have only made it into the mid to upper 30s. As we move into the overnight hours, a warm front is expected to shift northward across the region to around the I-30 corridor. This will bring a warmer airmass along with more low-level moisture into the region ahead of our next approaching disturbance from the southwest. More widespread rainfall will develop over the region, and will likely be more convective behind the warm front.
542 PM CST Mon Jan 22 2024 (This evening through Tuesday) Precipitation continues to lift northward this afternoon across central and eastern portions of Oklahoma, with temperatures now above freezing across most of the area. However, we've had a few sites across central Oklahoma that have been hovering right near freezing for much of the day , with accumulated ice being slower to melt in these areas. Temperatures will be close to freezing across northwest Oklahoma Tuesday night, but current expectation is they will remain just above the freezing mark while precipitation is falling to keep things as just a cold rain.
A long fetch of moisture continues to flow northward from the Lower Mississippi River Valley this afternoon. Given the surge of warmer air, have cancelled the Winter Weather Advisory for Effingham, Jasper, Crawford, Clay, Richland, and Lawrence counties.
This afternoon through Tuesday night Trough energy over the inter-mountain west will continue to bring periods of rain and or snow to valley areas through Tuesday afternoon, with between 0. Through 4pm Tuesday most of the mountains across NE Nevada can expect 1-6 inches of additional snowfall, with 1-3 inches on some of the higher summits, including portions of I80 and Highway 50. Showers diminish from west to east Tuesday afternoon and evening as ridging builds in from the west.
935 PM EST Mon Jan 22 2024 High pressure offshore will bring a significant warmup this week, but also a fair amount of clouds.
328 PM CST Mon Jan 22 2024 - Lingering slick spots remain on some roads and sidewalks, mainly in the Ozarks, through the evening hours, but temperatures are expected to remain warm enough to prevent new freezing rain issues from developing.
Deep SW flow aloft bringing large cirrus cloud shield over the region from S Gulf as upper ridging from Hispaniola and the C Carib amplifies over the area. Western Atlantic high pressure at the surface continues to produce occasionally breezy easterly low level flow over the FL Peninsula increasing low level moisture. High pressure in place across the region shifts east as a trough lifts to the north from the central Gulf. This trough will allow for a few showers across the north Tuesday and Tuesday night as ridging remains across the peninsula and keeps an east to southeast flow and allows temperatures and moisture across the area to rise well above normal.
648 PM EST Mon Jan 22 2024 High pressure offshore will bring a significant warmup this week, but also a fair amount of clouds.
A series of relatively weak storm systems will continue to impact the region through the week before more pronounced high pressure arrives this weekend. It will continue to shift east and form a closed low over northern Arizona during the overnight hours.
Higher cloud cover and onshore flow due to high pressure settling in over the western Atlantic will keep overnight lows in the 60s, with some upper 50s possible northwest of I-4.
548 PM CST Mon Jan 22 2024 - Lingering slick spots remain on some roads and sidewalks, mainly in the Ozarks, through the evening hours, but temperatures are expected to remain warm enough to prevent new freezing rain issues from developing.
112 AM EST Tue Jan 23 2024 High pressure offshore will bring a significant warmup this week, but also a fair amount of clouds.
(The rest of tonight) Just about the entire forecast area has risen above freezing except for a few locations across NE OK that remain at 32 degrees as of mid evening. While locally dense fog will be possible, will hold off on issuing an advisory given the low coverage of any dense fog that develops. (Tuesday through Monday) The rest of the workweek is expect to be dominated by western CONUS longwave troughing, with deep layer southerly flow continuing to pump moisture into the region. Continued thick cloud cover along with fog and drizzle will limit high temperatures a bit, but still much warmer temperatures are expected through the middle of the week than what has been seen in the last ten days.
Upper level ridging southeast of the Bahamas continues to ridge northwestward across the southeast U.
Overnight lows tonight will finally remain above freezing for the first time in a few days and our high temps tomorrow will give us area wide 50s and a few obs of 60s which is what we might normally expect for this time of year according to climatology. Winds out of the east today will slowly transition toward the south over the span of the short term forecast largely thanks to high pressure that's expected to settle off the Atlantic coast.
(Today and tonight) Water vapor imagery revealed a potent upper jet speeding east from Baja California in the base of a broad trough. As winds in the 850-700mb layer back to southeasterly ahead of this low and tap a reservoir of richer gulf moisture, PWATs will soar to around 1" off the Caprock with about half this amount along the TX-NM border. The highest QPF of around 1/2" looks to closely follow the track of the slow-moving 700mb low where lift residence time will be maximized. As precip tapers overnight in the wake of the low, the stage could be primed for a third round of dense fog given light winds and very moist low levels.
252 AM CST Tue Jan 23 2024 - Light ice accumulations from freezing rain will remain possible now through mid-morning over northern Missouri.
1038 PM CST Mon Jan 22 2024 (This evening through Tuesday) Precipitation continues to lift northward this afternoon across central and eastern portions of Oklahoma, with temperatures now above freezing across most of the area. However, we've had a few sites across central Oklahoma that have been hovering right near freezing for much of the day , with accumulated ice being slower to melt in these areas. Temperatures will be close to freezing across northwest Oklahoma Tuesday night, but current expectation is they will remain just above the freezing mark while precipitation is falling to keep things as just a cold rain.
A 1036 mb high pressure system is just east of the Carolinas. Temperatures in the lower 70s are fairly steady across the island chain. A large high pressure system centered near the Carolinas will slide steadily east southeast over the next several days.
Confidence remains low for freezing rain in the Camas Prairie.
With nighttime temperatures below freezing, any fog or drizzle that occurs would produce slick spots on untreated roadways.
Current surface analysis places trough along the Rockies, with high over northern Saskatchewan/Manitoba. Temperature forecast actually gets a little tricky as we get later in the week as probabilistic guidance is suggesting notably warmer temperatures. With that said, this will be something that bears watching over the next few days to see how things trend and will not be surprised at all if some locations end up a fair amount warmer than currently forecast by late week. Otherwise, fog is expected to dissipate near the end of the TAF period, while the low stratus may linger for longer.
1054 PM CST Mon Jan 22 2024 (The rest of tonight) Just about the entire forecast area has risen above freezing except for a few locations across NE OK that remain at 32 degrees as of mid evening. While locally dense fog will be possible, will hold off on issuing an advisory given the low coverage of any dense fog that develops. (Tuesday through Monday) The rest of the workweek is expect to be dominated by western CONUS longwave troughing, with deep layer southerly flow continuing to pump moisture into the region. Continued thick cloud cover along with fog and drizzle will limit high temperatures a bit, but still much warmer temperatures are expected through the middle of the week than what has been seen in the last ten days.
Visibility trends will continue to be monitored across northwest Arkansas in case an advisory is needed, however the fog should not be as dense with the relatively warmer temperatures, currently in the upper 30s to around 40 degrees.
Moisture will be limited throughout the vertical profile throughout Tuesday, so opted to keep in a wintry mix of snow and freezing drizzle for the duration of the lake effect tomorrow. High temperatures will be in the low to mid 30s and lows in the upper 20s. The track of the low is still uncertain, but there's a general consensus among the models that there will be some mixed precipitation in northwest Wisconsin. For those affected, mostly rain would be expected during the day due to temperatures above freezing, but could become more hazardous in the mornings and evenings and overnights as precipitation transitions to a wintry mix overnight.
1139 PM CST Mon Jan 22 2024 - Lingering slick spots remain on some roads and sidewalks, mainly in the Ozarks, through the evening hours, but temperatures are expected to remain warm enough to prevent new freezing rain issues from developing.
959 PM CST Mon Jan 22 2024 - Winter Weather Advisory posted for tonight for another round of freezing rain. - There may be some more freezing rain Tuesday night.
Freezing fog may leave slick spots on surfaces. - Freezing drizzle will be possible today, which may leave a light glaze on surfaces. The lowest visibility areas (less than 1 mile) currently extend from Broken Bow to North Platte and McCook. Some light drizzle/freezing drizzle or sprinkles will be possible this morning, initially favoring our counties in north central Kansas, before moving north into areas along the Kansas- Nebraska border. A broad upper trough extending from California to eastern Nebraska and south as far as northern Mexico will shift slightly east through the day. This will bring a chance for some rain/freezing rain overnight and into tomorrow morning. At the moment, the best chance for any freezing rain potential would be from midnight to noon Wednesday.
540 AM CST Tue Jan 23 2024 (Today and tonight) Water vapor imagery revealed a potent upper jet speeding east from Baja California in the base of a broad trough. As winds in the 850-700mb layer back to southeasterly ahead of this low and tap a reservoir of richer gulf moisture, PWATs will soar to around 1" off the Caprock with about half this amount along the TX-NM border. The highest QPF of around 1/2" looks to closely follow the track of the slow-moving 700mb low where lift residence time will be maximized. As precip tapers overnight in the wake of the low, the stage could be primed for a third round of dense fog given light winds and very moist low levels.
540 AM CST Tue Jan 23 2024 - Light ice accumulations from freezing rain will remain possible now through mid-morning over northern Missouri. For northern Missouri within the ongoing winter weather advisory, confidence in ice accumulation on the roadways is trending somewhat lower, with both the air temperatures near freezing and the rain passing through a +2C to +4C layer above the surface.
838 AM EST Tue Jan 23 2024 Trough over the north-central Gulf waters will lift north today and tonight, bringing a low rain chance across the northern and central coastal waters and mainly the Nature Coast later today. Ridging will otherwise remain across the area keeping a moderate east to southeast wind in place. Winds over the coastal waters will remain from the E/SE for the next few days as high pressure ridges across the area from the Atlantic. A trough lifting through the north-central Gulf waters is allowing for a few showers over the northern and central coastal waters today and tonight.
326 AM CST Tue Jan 23 2024 - Areas of patchy freezing fog possible this morning, especially in southern MN.
840 AM CST Tue Jan 23 2024 - Warmer this whole week, with temperatures mainly above average - Rounds of rain expected today and Wed-Thurs, all told we could see 1-3 inches of rain by Thurs night - Some thunder could mix in there Wed afternoon through overnight Dense fog has continued to expand in coverage across much of southeast Missouri and adjacent areas near the Mississippi River in far southwest Illinois into far western Kentucky. Today we are in southwest flow aloft with ridging to the east and a trof to the southwest.
The lift associated with this trough generates a chance of showers and possibly even some embedded thunderstorms for regions south of I-20 and highest chances for heaviest precipitation across Presidio into Brewster, southeast Pecos, Terell, Upton, Reagan, and Glasscock counties from near midnight Wednesday into Wednesday morning.
A long wave trough will be setting up over the central part of the country with short waves passing to our west. This one will push a warm front into Middle TN. Behind the warm front we will see deep Gulf moisture with our PWATs pushing to around 1. As we head into Wednesday evening a cold front will be sitting off to our west and we will see areas of moderate rain ahead of this slow moving front.
This is in response to a broad, double-barrel upper trough that extends southward over northern Mexico.
519 AM CST Tue Jan 23 2024 (Today through Wednesday Night) A rather active short term period is in store as an upper level trough has positioned itself over the area. Severe weather chances are expected to remain on the low end with the main concern being isolated flash flooding due to the heavy rainfall. Overnight lows are expected to be in the lower 40s to mid 50s through the period.
With nighttime temperatures below freezing, any fog or drizzle that occurs would produce slick spots on untreated roadways. Highs will be near 30 degrees today and well into the 30s Wednesday, the highest readings we've had since the first week of January for most of the area. Will continue to see the upper pattern dominated by a weak longwave trough, with embedded weak northern stream systems.
531 AM CST Tue Jan 23 2024 - Light lake effect snow and some freezing drizzle possible today (20-50%), mainly along the North Shore.
Signal present for light freezing mist potential. Considerably warmer farther south and esp into west central MN where temps are in the mid 20s in lakes country. Some risk of freezing drizzle in this situation but any concentrated area of 850 mb warm advection is brief and more so in south central/southeast Manitoba tonight.
- Freezing fog is leading to slippery stretches in parts of southeast Minnesota early this morning.
/05/ (Tuesday through Wednesday) Warm front currently across northeast Texas and southwest Arkansas has allowed for much warmer temperatures across the region with temperatures south of the front averaging in the mid to upper 50s. Fog will remain a concern within the vicinity of the warm front through mid-morning.
302 AM CST Tue Jan 23 2024 - Warmer this whole week, with temperatures mainly above average - Rounds of rain expected today and Wed-Thurs, all told we could see 1-3 inches of rain by Thurs night - Some thunder could mix in there Wed afternoon through overnight Today we are in southwest flow aloft with ridging to the east and a trof to the southwest.
445 AM EST Tue Jan 23 2024 Any freezing rain this morning will transition over to rain by mid day.
426 AM MST Tue Jan 23 2024 - Dense freezing fog is expected to persist in the northern Nebraska Panhandle through mid-to-late morning.
313 AM CST Tue Jan 23 2024 - Light lake effect snow and some freezing drizzle possible today (20-50%), mainly along the North Shore.
A mix of rain and snow showers will continue today with minor accumulations expected across the high elevation sites.
(Today through Wednesday) High pressure center has moved offshore the the coast of the Carolinas. Moisture from the Gulf of Mexico has begun to move up and over the cooler wedge this morning.
325 AM CST Tue Jan 23 2024 - Areas of patchy freezing fog possible this morning, especially in southern MN.
Patchy fog is once again possible for the cooler basins and valleys.
High pressure ridge to the east will bring a warming southwest flow aloft across the area and a southerly flow to the surface. Other than a few flurries falling out of the low clouds, mainly dry conditions are expected today. Most models push a bulk of the lower level moisture eastward tonight into Wednesday morning as a weak clipper moves across the north. Soundings though still support at least some trapped moisture in the lower levels, especially in the south central and James River Valley.
The High Surf Advisory will be allowed to expire at 10AM this morning, and the Small Craft Advisory was extended through Wednesday evening for the Atlantic waters and Biscayne Bay. At mid-lvls, robust ridging positioned just downstream (east) of the area will remain the primary influence through the short-term period. The moderate easterly regime will keep low temperatures a few degrees above normal tonight, with lows ranging from the mid 60s near the Lake to the lower 70s near the east coast.
411 AM MST Tue Jan 23 2024 - Dense freezing fog is expected to persist in the northern Nebraska Panhandle through mid-to-late morning.
558 AM CST Tue Jan 23 2024 - Areas of patchy freezing fog possible this morning, especially in southern MN.
Moisture streaming over the Northern Rockies from the southwest, has brought periods of light freezing rain to the valleys of Northwest Montana this morning. Even with some areas currently above freezing, the surface and subsurface temperatures remain below freezing, so any rain will be susceptible to freezing on contact. Winter Weather Advisories remain in place for northwest Montana due to the freezing rain threat through the morning commute.
At mid-lvls, robust ridging positioned just downstream (east) of the area will remain the primary influence through the short-term period. The moderate easterly regime will keep low temperatures a few degrees above normal tonight, with lows ranging from the mid 60s near the Lake to the lower 70s near the east coast.
527 AM CST Tue Jan 23 2024 - Warmer this whole week, with temperatures mainly above average - Rounds of rain expected today and Wed-Thurs, all told we could see 1-3 inches of rain by Thurs night - Some thunder could mix in there Wed afternoon through overnight Aviation section updated for 12Z TAF issuance. Today we are in southwest flow aloft with ridging to the east and a trof to the southwest.
647 AM EST Tue Jan 23 2024 Any freezing rain this morning will transition over to rain by mid day.
425 AM EST Tue Jan 23 2024 (Today through Wednesday) High pressure center has moved offshore the the coast of the Carolinas. Moisture from the Gulf of Mexico has begun to move up and over the cooler wedge this morning.