Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
700 PM EDT Fri Aug 8 2025 High pressure will bring warm days and comfortably cool nights through Saturday night.
Temperatures will be warmer on Saturday but with highs still around 5 to 10 degrees below normal.
635 PM CDT Fri Aug 8 2025 Updated at 621 PM CDT Fri Aug 8 2025 - A warming trend will continue through the weekend with afternoon highs in the low to mid 90s.
A dry cold front will remain stalled over central Utah through Saturday morning. Hot, breezy and unstable conditions will persist to the south of this front, while a cooler and more stable airmass settles across northern Utah.
Low pressure on the periphery of the wedge, now just off the Outer Banks, will continue to drift NE.
608 PM MDT Fri Aug 8 2025 - Isolated showers and weak t-storms, a bit warmer (70s to lower 80s), and continued breezy conditions Saturday.
523 PM MDT Fri Aug 8 2025 - Cooler temperatures today.
619 PM CDT Fri Aug 8 2025 (This evening through Saturday night) We continue to be subjected to the influence of upper level high pressure to our west and east with a subtle trough (really only 3 to 4 mb lower) and a weak, nearly stalled surface front drifting north and south over the CWA and just offshore. Afternoon high temps should stay in the low 90s with feels-like just over 100.
Low pressure was located near Winnipeg this afternoon with a cold front trailing into northwestern Minnesota and eastern South Dakota. With the expansive cloud cover, temperatures have not been able to warm as previously forecast and the warm front remains stalled out well to our south. Heading into this evening, the cold front will push eastward into an airmass characterized by dewpoints in the upper 60s and lower 70s and CAPE in the 2000-4000 J/kg range. A few tornadoes will also be possible with SRH around 150 m2/s2 and strong turning in the low levels. A cold front will follow the storms with winds becoming southwesterly for the remainder of the forecast period at 5 to 15 knots.
- Cooler temperatures are expected through the weekend with highs mostly in the 70s to low 80s. Currently, surfaced low pressure extends from southern Saskatchewan east into Manitoba and the south through Minnesota. A closed upper low is spinning over southwest Saskatchewan, with another smaller, closed circulation lifting northeast through northeast Montana.
Main upper low the wrapping into ND/south central Canada with some additional clouds moving into the state, cooler conditions and a few isolated showers developing across the north late Saturday. VFR conditions are more likely to prevail across eastern ND and northwest MN, with lingering MVFR stratus over far southeast ND and parts of west central MN gradually moving east as a cold front/drier air mass arrives this evening. West-southwest winds increase Saturday in response to a deepening low pressure system moving into the region.
810 PM EDT Fri Aug 8 2025 High pressure will remain anchored over the northeast states through the weekend bringing mainly dry weather and a gradual warming trend.
643 PM EDT Fri Aug 8 2025 * A ridge of high pressure extending from Central PA to the Atlantic waters just south of Nova Scotia will result in a number of dry, warm days and mainly clear relatively comfortable nights through this weekend.
712 PM EDT Fri Aug 8 2025 An area of weak low pressure will move along the Southeast coast late this week and into this weekend, which will keep scattered showers in the forecast. A weak upper low continues to meander over the Carolinas with upper ridging over the western Atlantic. Drier high pressure will build in behind it, sustaining northeasterly flow and cloudy skies for another day. Highs will reach the low- to mid-80s.
Elevated environment supportive of large hail/damaging winds continues to be in place across our southeastern CWA behind the main cold frontal zone (just to our southeast). Main upper low the wrapping into ND/south central Canada with some additional clouds moving into the state, cooler conditions and a few isolated showers developing across the north late Saturday. VFR conditions are more likely to prevail across eastern ND and northwest MN, with lingering MVFR stratus over far southeast ND and parts of west central MN gradually moving east as a cold front/drier air mass arrives this evening. West-southwest winds increase Saturday in response to a deepening low pressure system moving into the region.
622 PM CDT Fri Aug 8 2025 An inverted upper trough forming over the western Gulf and lower Mississippi River will gradually shift westward and evolve into a closed low pressure area through the weekend as an upper high pressure ridge builds into our region from the east.
1259 AM MDT Sat Aug 9 2025 - Isolated showers mountains and northeast otherwise dry, a bit warmer (70s to lower 80s), and continued breezy conditions Today. - Cooler and unsettled conditions return for the end of the week. Expansive upper low is centered over SE Sask.
/NEW/ /Today through Sunday/ Little change in our ongoing hot and dry weather pattern is anticipated today as an upper level ridge centered over New Mexico dominates weather across North and Central Texas. However, the ridge will continue to weaken today as an upper level low over the western Gulf approaches the Texas coast, which should keep temperatures near yesterday's readings or knock them down a degree or two. Today looks to be our last need for a Heat Advisory as the upper ridge weakens further and the upper level low moves westward into the state on Sunday. An isolated shower or storm is also possible Sunday afternoon across our east and southeast counties thanks to a combination of the seabreeze and upper low, but current coverage looks less than 20 percent and did not include any pops.
146 AM EDT Sat Aug 9 2025 High pressure will keep quiescent conditions across the region with above normal temperatures. High pressure at the surface and aloft will result in dry conditions. The gradual warming trend will continue with highs a degree or two warmer than yesterday. High pressure at the surface and aloft will remain in place.
101 AM EDT Sat Aug 9 2025 High pressure will bring warm days and comfortably cool nights through Saturday night. Warming trend begins in earnest Sunday as strong mid-level ridging builds over the region.
These strong afternoon wind gusts are primarily from mixing with strong jet winds aloft and an increased pressure gradient from a trough passing to our north. As this trough propagates eastward, an associated cold front will move through northeastern Utah and northwestern Colorado. Flow becomes more north through northwesterly after a dry upper level trough pushes through. High pressure will build in to the west at the start of the work week.
The region will be split between an upper-level ridge of high pressure across Texas and Oklahoma and a broad upper-low across the western gulf into Louisiana and Mississippi on Saturday. Areas under the ridge, including east and northeast Texas as well as southeast Oklahoma and adjacent counties in southwest Arkansas can expect another hot and dry day with temperatures in the mid to upper 90s and heat index values exceeding 105 degrees. Elsewhere, the influence of the upper-trough will allow for enough instability and mixing to restrict high temperatures to the mid 90s with heat index values remaining below advisory criteria. The upper-trough will retrograde west into Texas on Sunday bringing a slightly unsettled weather pattern across the ArkLaTex through midweek.
With high pressure situated to our northeast and large scale subsidence overhead, expect a dry and mostly sunny day.
(Today through Sunday night) A welcomed pattern change kicks off this weekend, thanks to an upper level trough set to give our pesky high pressure the boot. Models show a weak cold front advancing out of Kansas, eventually reaching and stalling over our neck of the Plains today. On Sunday, rain chances increase significantly due to the arrival of the main trough axis along with another boundary passage over the region. The best upper level support should reside across the north with the trough axis, which is where confidence is highest in storm development.
Windy and dry conditions will linger into the early evening over the higher terrain, resulting in critical fire weather conditions. Over northeast Colorado, a shallow cold front is slowly sinking southward. It will be cooler along the Front Range and across the eastern plains Saturday. An upper level trough moving across the region is expected to continue to produce showers and thunderstorms into Saturday night. MLCAPE reaches 1000-2000 J/kg Saturday afternoon/evening with the highest values to the southeast of Denver. The upper level trough will be moving across the state, which will lead to cooler temperatures with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s over northeast Colorado.
500mb ridging will expand across the Eastern CONUS this weekend.
Upper level ridging and southwesterly surface flow will continue overnight. Saturday night into Sunday: The ridge begins to slowly shift as an upper low moves across southcentral Canada and the northern plains. Synoptic models show a weak cold front trying to slide south towards the region. Confidence does remain low for any widespread rainfall chances however, as the ridge appears to remain in control for time being as the front meanders into northern MO.
Otherwise, another hot day is in store for the area today as expansive upper ridging only slowly begins to lose its influence over the region as troughing deepens over the northern Plains.
- Cooler temperatures are expected across the region for the next few days.
Large scale subsidence will take over as high pressure positions just to our north and keeps the relatively drier air in place.
An upper level trough meanders a bit west over the Southeast into Sunday before an upper ridge off the East Coast builds west over the region in the coming week, shifting the upper trough to over the Southern Plains.
243 AM EDT Sat Aug 9 2025 High pressure will bring warm and dry conditions today and a comfortably cool night tonight.
931 PM MDT Fri Aug 8 2025 - Cooler temperatures today.
Our area is currently influenced by a ridge of high pressure aloft extending out of the Desert Southwest, and that will continue into Saturday. Water vapor imagery shows a well formed upper low spinning over northeast Montana and southern Saskatchewan this afternoon. Global models show an elongating trough south of it through the weekend, helping to sharpen the ridge as shifts more toward the eastern Great Lakes. A corridor of heavy rain is likely to set up in this region Saturday night, as an incoming cold front runs into the ridge and stalls out. Most of the high-res guidance is suggesting any such flooding issues in our area would be after midnight Saturday night, with another MCS also developing Sunday night. With the areas southeast of I-55 more under the influence of the ridge, rain chances will be fairly minimal through the weekend.
Subsidence from high pressure over the region should maintain fair weather. temperatures remaining about 5 degrees cooler than normal.
A cold front will then bring the next chance for showers or thunderstorms by midweek.
(Today through Sunday) Hot and mostly dry conditions are expected this weekend as the subtropical ridge continues its westward progression. Tonight, an inverted trough moves over the Texas coast and remains over this area through much of Sunday.
Temperatures for the upcoming week look seasonable for mid August in the low to mid 80s and dew points in the 60s. Brief MVFR/IFR conditions are possible as storms move through, with VFR returning quickly behind the cold front as skies clear out by the second half of the period. We may need some short term AMDs to handle the convection as the storms move through as we have yet to see the line fully materialize along the cold front.
143 AM EDT Sat Aug 9 2025 * A ridge of high pressure extending from Central PA to the Atlantic waters just south of Nova Scotia will result in a number of dry, warm days and mainly clear relatively comfortable nights through this weekend.
1119 PM EDT Fri Aug 8 2025 * A ridge of high pressure extending from Central PA to the Atlantic waters just south of Nova Scotia will result in a number of dry, warm days and mainly clear relatively comfortable nights through this weekend.
Otherwise, the chance for lightning is on the low side, and QPF amounts will also be low tonight.
Temperatures are expected to be in the low to mid 90s with heat indices around 100 degrees.
Additional cloud cover due to the enhanced moisture could help keep heat index values a bit cooler than Heat Advisory criteria with much of the area reaching the upper 90s to mid 100s today.
Meanwhile an inverted surface to 850 mb trough, extending from the northeastern Gulf to coastal South Carolina, is expected to move slowly westward over the next 48 hours. A large plume of high PWAT values is associated with the inverted trough, and level easterly flow will aid in moisture advection across Alabama.
Elevated environment supportive of large hail/damaging winds continues to be in place across our southeastern CWA behind the main cold frontal zone (just to our southeast). Main upper low the wrapping into ND/south central Canada with some additional clouds moving into the state, cooler conditions and a few isolated showers developing across the north late Saturday. A cold front sweeps eastward into central MN and takes thunderstorm potential along with it for the rest of tonight. Low pressure deepening across central Canada then brings increasing and thickening clouds west to east along the northern terminal corridor during the day. West-southwest winds also become a focus in response to the deepening low pressure system.
The cold air damming high appears to weaken somewhat through tonight as weak ridging builds over the east coast. Highs should be warmer today, but still undercut the guidance blend given the morning clouds, ending up below normal. Showers would be more likely across the western Upstate and NE GA into the Blue Ridge escarpment. Synoptically, the ridge persists over the eastern CONUS while an upper trough digs into the central region of the U. While flow aloft remains weak and instability should be in the lower range, the added moisture into the area increases PoP chances (30-55%) on Sunday with more diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms.
Then, a strong high pressure system will begin to move eastward from the Pacific Ocean later Saturday into Sunday.
250 AM EDT Sat Aug 9 2025 High pressure centered off southeast Canada will extend down through central North Carolina through the weekend.
Should see a Denver cyclone develop later this morning into the early aftn to the east or southeast of Denver. Windy and dry conditions will linger into the early evening over the higher terrain, resulting in critical fire weather conditions. Over northeast Colorado, a shallow cold front is slowly sinking southward. It will be cooler along the Front Range and across the eastern plains Saturday. An upper level trough moving across the region is expected to continue to produce showers and thunderstorms into Saturday night. MLCAPE reaches 1000-2000 J/kg Saturday afternoon/evening with the highest values to the southeast of Denver. The upper level trough will be moving across the state, which will lead to cooler temperatures with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s over northeast Colorado.
Upper low moves across the southern Canadian Plains today, with troughing extending southward into the Northern Plains. With the low heights, funnels could form, but the best chances will remain north of the International Border.
650 AM EDT Sat Aug 9 2025 High pressure will bring warm and dry conditions today and a comfortably cool night tonight.
Slightly warmer weather expected today as the high begins to weaken and we see areas of sun. Subsidence from high pressure over the region should maintain fair weather. temperatures remaining about 5 degrees cooler than normal.
Temperatures for the upcoming week look seasonable for mid August in the low to mid 80s and dew points in the 60s.
A trough pushing through the Intermountain West will result in increased west-southwesterly winds once again across our forecast area this afternoon. Late-weekend into the start of the work week, the Desert Southwest will become sandwiched between two ridges - one over the northeastern Pacific Ocean and one over New Mexico.
Min RHs will generally be around 14-22 percent in the lower elevations and 20-30 percent in the mountains.
A trough axis ahead of a cold front advancing across Minnesota early this morning has generated clusters of showers and thunderstorms which are moving northeast across the Northland. While today will still be somewhat warm and humid with highs still in the 80s nearly everywhere, Sunday will be be cooler, only getting into the mid 70s to mid 80s. The main upper low which has been the main driver of this hot, humid and somewhat wet last few days pushes northeast of the region by late in the weekend, but leaves a broad upper level trough that lingers over the Northland through at least the middle part of this week.
High temperatures will generally range from the mid 80s to near 90 with overnight lows in the low to mid 70s.
615 AM EDT Sat Aug 9 2025 High pressure will keep quiescent conditions across the region with above normal temperatures. High pressure at the surface and aloft will result in dry conditions. The gradual warming trend will continue with highs a degree or two warmer than yesterday. High pressure at the surface and aloft will remain in place.
644 AM CDT Sat Aug 9 2025 An upper level trough meanders a bit west over the Southeast into Sunday before an upper ridge off the East Coast builds west over the region in the coming week, shifting the upper trough to over the Southern Plains.
Shamburger Previous Discussion: /Today through Sunday/ Little change in our ongoing hot and dry weather pattern is anticipated today as an upper level ridge centered over New Mexico dominates weather across North and Central Texas. However, the ridge will continue to weaken today as an upper level low over the western Gulf approaches the Texas coast, which should keep temperatures near yesterday's readings or knock them down a degree or two. Today looks to be our last need for a Heat Advisory as the upper ridge weakens further and the upper level low moves westward into the state on Sunday. An isolated shower or storm is also possible Sunday afternoon across our east and southeast counties thanks to a combination of the seabreeze and upper low, but current coverage looks less than 20 percent and did not include any pops.
This activity should stay to the west of the island chain but a few stray showers and/or thunderstorms could spread east impacting the Lower Keys around 20z.
Northwest flow will remain over western Montana and north central Idaho today as high pressure begins to build to the west. This will translate to slightly warmer temperatures today with a mix of sun and clouds.
641 AM CDT Sat Aug 9 2025 (Today through Sunday) Hot and mostly dry conditions are expected this weekend as the subtropical ridge continues its westward progression. Tonight, an inverted trough moves over the Texas coast and remains over this area through much of Sunday.
Occasional sunshine and airmass modification suggest max temps in the lower 80s for most of the Piedmont and upper 70s to around 80 in the SW NC mtn valleys. Inverted trough near the GA/SC coast, along the boundary of the damming high, will remain a focus for convection thru tonight and drift inland slightly. Widespread cloud cover should develop by around daybreak along and southeast of the Blue Ridge Escarpment. Cloud cover will keep max temps similar to or even a little cooler than today's and effectively keep CAD in place for at least another day. As of 1146 AM Saturday: A typical late summer pattern continues into next work week as broad upper ridging retrogrades from the Atlantic into the southeast states while a northern stream trough digs across the Northern Plains and into the Great Lakes.
1243 PM CDT Sat Aug 9 2025 An upper level trough meanders a bit west over the Southeast into Sunday before an upper ridge off the East Coast builds west over the region in the coming week, shifting the upper trough to over the Southern Plains.
An upper ridge will continue to influence the weather across central Indiana. The upper ridge will remain in the area. An upper level trough across the central part of the country will inch closer to the area, and mid level temperatures will cool a bit. The upper trough will move into the area during this time. A weak surface front will also accompany the upper trough. Uncertainty remains on the timing of the best forcing, but the higher chances for rain will generally be in the afternoons when instability is maximized. Flow will become more zonal during this period, but models disagree on whether some weaker upper troughs will move through this flow.
Warmer weather and daily chances for afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms return for the upcoming work week. High pressure will gradually weaken over the area through tomorrow. Some stratus is possible over the southern Blue Ridge towards Sunday morning, but most locations will see clear skies or cirrus overnight. Sunday will be 3 to 5 degrees warmer than today, with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s.
The upward trend of rain coverage will continue into Sunday afternoon as the inverted trough lifts further north through the day. Meanwhile an inverted surface to 850 mb trough, extending from the northeastern Gulf to coastal South Carolina, is expected to move slowly westward over the next 48 hours. A large plume of high PWAT values is associated with the inverted trough, and level easterly flow will aid in moisture advection across Alabama.
The higher shower chances has also brought localized flooding to the west coast each evening.
Temperatures for the upcoming week look seasonable for mid August in the low to mid 80s and dew points in the 60s. Precipitation shield continues to shift off to the east this afternoon while clearing skies move into western MN, in line with the slow progression eastward of the cold front. There will be some variation in ceilings between the back edge of the precip and until the cold front makes true passage across each terminal, with clearing skies expected from this evening onward.
Discussion: We remain under the influence of upper-level ridging across the Appalachians with a tropical low pressure system near Florida and the far Southeast CONUS with troughing across the northern Great Plains. Ridging across the western Atlantic will retrograde towards the Southeast CONUS early this week.
332 PM CDT Sat Aug 9 2025 - Less muggy and a little cooler for the next few days.
High pressure tonight brings mainly clear skies, light winds and good raditional cooling conditions. High pressure and upper level ridging will remain overhead through the start of the work week. High temperatures will start ticking upwards into the low 90s, however, with dewpoint temperatures in the mid 50s to lower 60s, heat indices will remain below Heat Advisory criteria with possibly temperatures even feeling a degree or two cooler than they are due to the dry conditions.
356 PM EDT Sat Aug 9 2025 High pressure will remain in control through the weekend. The high will then slowly weaken over the region as a frontal system approaches mid week. Elongated E-W high pressure extending from Nova Scotia to the Mid Atlantic will remain in control. Heights aloft will slowly rise as ridging builds over the eastern US. A high amplitude ridge (+2 to +3SD) over the eastern third of the country will be the main weather feature. High temps have been running close to or a shade higher than a MAV/MET blend, so took the higher of that and the NBM for Sunday, with near 90 in most of NE NJ and well into the 80s most elsewhere.
215 PM EDT Sat Aug 9 2025 High pressure will bring warm and dry conditions today and a comfortably cool night tonight.
This has kept temperatures around 80 and into the lower 80s at 11 AM.