Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
555 AM CST Sat Jan 13 2024 (Today through Sunday night) 08z WV satellite shows large scale cyclonic flow over the US/CA with a notable upper low over the Great Lakes. In the immediate term, expect temperatures to drop into the single digits in the northern Panhandles in the wake of the arriving cold front. Moving ahead to Sunday, expect nearly the entire CWA to remain below freezing through the day as cloud cover returns and winds retain an upslope easterly component.
The arctic air will be maintained by wly winds funneling btwn strong high pressure building into the Great Plains and nosing into the Ohio Valley, and the occluded low moving into Quebec.
(Today through Sunday night) 08z WV satellite shows large scale cyclonic flow over the US/CA with a notable upper low over the Great Lakes. In the immediate term, expect temperatures to drop into the single digits in the northern Panhandles in the wake of the arriving cold front. Moving ahead to Sunday, expect nearly the entire CWA to remain below freezing through the day as cloud cover returns and winds retain an upslope easterly component.
955 AM EST Sat Jan 13 2024 Strong low pressure to the north will affect the region with windy conditions today.
525 AM CST Sat Jan 13 2024 (Today and tonight) The main highlight of the short term is the arrival of a very strong cold front.
523 AM CST Sat Jan 13 2024 (Today and tonight) Next arctic cold front entering northern Oklahoma early this morning will quickly move south across Oklahoma and north Texas this morning.
The area will be under the fast moving flow down the east side of a ridge today.
(Today and tonight) The main highlight of the short term is the arrival of a very strong cold front.
(This evening through Sunday night) The passage of a cold front occurred earlier today with arctic air settling across the panhandles for the weekend. This will see the highs in the single digits to teens with only a few warm spots possibly reaching the low 20s.
A very powerful arctic area of low pressure is pushing through the Dakotas this morning as another area of low pressure is approaching the Pacific North West. These two features will slide southeast and merge into a long wave trough that cover entire continental USA. Arizona will be on the southwest edge of the active weather of this trough. Satellite images early this morning shows some high clouds starting to drift southeastward from the Great Basin and into the High Country. This is all in advance of a trough that will move into the region early Sunday.
The next front is making its way through the Florida Keys this afternoon with the front just recently passing through the Lower Keys. Temperatures along the Island Chain are mostly in the upper 70s to near 80 degrees with the Lower Keys especially Boca Chica westward in the lower 70s due to frontal passage.
The main item of interest this morning is the cold front, associated with a mid-latitude cyclone over the Great Lakes, moving southeastward through the Florida Keys offshore Gulf waters.
(This evening through Sunday) Currently, a potent trough is situated in the central US allowing an Arctic airmass to plunge into the southern Plains. At the surface, a strong back-door cold front is sweeping across the CWA bringing very cold and moderately windy conditions behind it. As the trough progresses eastward, some weak high pressure will build into our area. However, the cold airmass is so dense that temperatures are forecast to remain below freezing pretty much area wide with the possible exception of the southwestern South Plains.
Clear skies tonight combined with light winds will allow for efficient radiational cooling, allowing temperatures to drop to near or below freezing.
111 PM EST Sat Jan 13 2024 Strong low pressure to the north will affect the region with windy conditions today.
1120 AM CST Sat Jan 13 2024 (Today through Sunday night) 08z WV satellite shows large scale cyclonic flow over the US/CA with a notable upper low over the Great Lakes. In the immediate term, expect temperatures to drop into the single digits in the northern Panhandles in the wake of the arriving cold front. Moving ahead to Sunday, expect nearly the entire CWA to remain below freezing through the day as cloud cover returns and winds retain an upslope easterly component.
350 PM EST Sat Jan 13 2024 Dry weather will continue through the remainder of the weekend under weak high pressure.
At 20Z the upper low was centered over south central ND/north central South Dakota, with fast northwesterly flow aloft over the forecast area.
A low pressure trough moving by to the northeast will bring increasing clouds tonight and Sunday, some cooling, and gusty winds in the mountains, deserts and parts of the coastal waters, but precipitation is not expected.
1254 PM EST Sat Jan 13 2024 Breezy today as low pressure departs to the northeast with otherwise quiet weather this weekend.
The upper-level troughing currently in place across the eastern CONUS will persist through tomorrow (Sunday). Meanwhile, the atmospheric column at large remains dry courtesy of a sprawling Arctic high pressure system. The passage of a dry cold front tomorrow will reinforce the cool air in place across much of north GA. Have introduced slight chance PoPs (less than 25%) across far north GA (primarily the northern-most row of GA counties) after around 8 PM on Sunday evening as moist, west-southwesterly flow aloft overruns the Arctic airmass associated with the aforementioned high pressure.
A cold front pushed through overnight producing some showers and isolated storms. This is resulting in drier and cooler air with temperatures expected to stay in the low 60's all day. By Sunday the cold front that passed through will attempt to lift a little north before heading out into the Atlantic.
1213 PM CST Sat Jan 13 2024 (Today and tonight) The main highlight of the short term is the arrival of a very strong cold front.
A low pressure system will bring bitterly cold air and snow to the Mid- South Sunday night. Snowfall accumulation ranges from 2-6 inches across the Mid-South with the higher accumulations likely along and south of Interstate 40.
305 PM PST Sat Jan 13 2024 Rain and wind continue tonight as a cold front moves over the region. However, that will change later this evening as a cold front to the north sweeps through the region. The cold front does look progressive with steadier precip ending N to S overnight with only a few lingering showers Sunday morning.
648 PM EST Sat Jan 13 2024 A reinforcing cold front will cross the area tonight bringing some light snow and even colder temperatures. A fast-moving cold front will cross the area tonight. In the wake of the front, Arctic high pressure will nose into the area.
A low pressure trough moving by to the northeast will bring increasing clouds tonight and Sunday, some cooling, and gusty winds in the mountains, deserts and parts of the coastal waters, but precipitation is not expected. There should be quite a few marine layer clouds late tonight and Sunday morning, and the normal trough- related west to northwest winds in the mountains and deserts will prevail, peaking Sunday morning-early afternoon, with a few gusts around 55 MPH on the desert slopes/near San Gorgonio Pass.
521 PM CST Sat Jan 13 2024 (This evening through Sunday) Currently, a potent trough is situated in the central US allowing an Arctic airmass to plunge into the southern Plains. At the surface, a strong back-door cold front is sweeping across the CWA bringing very cold and moderately windy conditions behind it. As the trough progresses eastward, some weak high pressure will build into our area. However, the cold airmass is so dense that temperatures are forecast to remain below freezing pretty much area wide with the possible exception of the southwestern South Plains.
A weakening cold front will bring showers to some northern areas late tonight into Sunday morning with breezy northerly winds across the mountains.
Concern remains that snow may end up falling through the remainder of southern Wisconsin, but the highest winds and greatest accumulations look to primarily be affecting far southern counties. Skies look to begin to scatter out in places on Sunday as high pressure builds in to our south.
831 PM EST Sat Jan 13 2024 A reinforcing cold front will cross the area tonight bringing some light snow and even colder temperatures. This light snow will overspread the remainder of our area this evening and into the overnight hours as a cold front moves through the region. With colder air moving in behind the front, temperatures will drop off through the night, with readings by daybreak ranging from the single digits in the west to the lower teens in the east. Meanwhile, road temperatures are below freezing, so some slick spots will develop overnight with the light snow. In the wake of the front, Arctic high pressure will nose into the area.
Rain and wind continue tonight as a cold front moves over the region. However, that will change later this evening as a cold front to the north sweeps through the region. The cold front does look progressive with steadier precip ending N to S overnight with only a few lingering showers Sunday morning.
401 PM EST Sat Jan 13 2024 A reinforcing cold front will cross the area tonight bringing some light snow and even colder temperatures. A fast-moving cold front will cross the area tonight. In the wake of the front, Arctic high pressure will nose into the area.
703 PM EST Sat Jan 13 2024 Dry weather will continue through the remainder of the weekend under weak high pressure.
945 PM EST Sat Jan 13 2024 Dry weather will continue through the remainder of the weekend under weak high pressure.
518 PM CST Sat Jan 13 2024 (This evening through Sunday night) The passage of a cold front occurred earlier today with arctic air settling across the panhandles for the weekend. This will see the highs in the single digits to teens with only a few warm spots possibly reaching the low 20s.
903 PM EST Sat Jan 13 2024 High pressure and dry conditions will continue across the CWA tonight. The upper-level troughing currently in place across the eastern CONUS will persist through tomorrow (Sunday). Meanwhile, the atmospheric column at large remains dry courtesy of a sprawling Arctic high pressure system. The passage of a dry cold front tomorrow will reinforce the cool air in place across much of north GA. TAF KATL 132320Z 1400/1506 27006KT P6SM SCT250 FM141400 28010KT P6SM SKC FM142000 29008KT P6SM SCT120 SCT250 FM142300 30004KT P6SM BKN150= Have introduced slight chance PoPs (less than 25%) across far north GA (primarily the northern-most row of GA counties) after around 8 PM on Sunday evening as moist, west-southwesterly flow aloft overruns the Arctic airmass associated with the aforementioned high pressure.
642 PM EST Sat Jan 13 2024 A cold front pushed through overnight producing some showers and isolated storms. This is resulting in drier and cooler air with temperatures expected to stay in the low 60's all day. By Sunday the cold front that passed through will attempt to lift a little north before heading out into the Atlantic.
The leading edge of a cold frontal zone (at the surface) was over the far eastern offshore Straits at the present time, marked by a narrow band of convective showers.
The upper-level troughing currently in place across the eastern CONUS will persist through tomorrow (Sunday). Meanwhile, the atmospheric column at large remains dry courtesy of a sprawling Arctic high pressure system. The passage of a dry cold front tomorrow will reinforce the cool air in place across much of north GA. TAF KATL 132320Z 1400/1506 27006KT P6SM SCT250 FM141400 28010KT P6SM SKC FM142000 29008KT P6SM SCT120 SCT250 FM142300 30004KT P6SM BKN150= Have introduced slight chance PoPs (less than 25%) across far north GA (primarily the northern-most row of GA counties) after around 8 PM on Sunday evening as moist, west-southwesterly flow aloft overruns the Arctic airmass associated with the aforementioned high pressure.
The low level flow will be backing westerly this evening and initially as the snow perks up again the bands may favor areas south of I-96. However with time the heavier snow showers should lift northward to align more with the I-96 corridor as very cold sfc air pouring in around the srn bowl of Lk MI pushes in toward the I-94 corridor with continued backing of the low level flow in that area. The strong low level FGEN response and enhanced convergence later tonight near the interface of the much warmer lake modified air and the non-Lk MI trajectory cold air in the south is expected to generate a zone of intense lake effect. Kent County has the highest likelihood of this; we're just not sure yet which part(s) of the county gets it.
High temperatures will be cooler, ranging from the mid 60s around the Lake region, to the low 70s along the Atlantic and Gulf coasts. Southerly winds in the wake of this frontal boundary will usher in a warmer airmass, with high temperatures returning to the mid to upper 70s.
1142 PM CST Sat Jan 13 2024 (06Z TAFS) All terminals will remain VFR through the forecast period as high pressure remains overhead. (00Z TAFS) VFR conditions will continue through the entire forecast period as high pressure remains overhead.
Beginning Monday, high pressure building in from the Pacific will bring increasing temperatures, especially at higher elevations, and quieter weather. We should continue to see mid-high clouds passing over the area tonight will overnight low temperatures Sunday morning a little warmer then what they were this morning. Surface obs showed temperatures a few degrees warmer than yesterday, with light winds except for stronger gusts at a few mountain stations. Low pressure which was in the southern Gulf of Alaska yesterday had deepened as expected and was nearing the Oregon coast, driving the moisture into the Sierra.
111 AM EST Sun Jan 14 2024 A reinforcing cold front will cross the area tonight bringing some light snow and even colder temperatures. This light snow will overspread the remainder of our area this evening and into the overnight hours as a cold front moves through the region. With colder air moving in behind the front, temperatures will drop off through the night, with readings by daybreak ranging from the single digits in the west to the lower teens in the east. Meanwhile, road temperatures are below freezing, so some slick spots will develop overnight with the light snow. In the wake of the front, Arctic high pressure will nose into the area.
100 AM EST Sun Jan 14 2024 Dry weather will continue through the remainder of the weekend under weak high pressure.
Longwave troughing downstream of Arizona, with a transition to ridging over the region, will keep the forecast dry over the coming seven days. Through the workweek, the center of the broad CONUS cyclone gradually shifts east and allows for mid-level height rises with warmer temperatures over southern Arizona.
217 AM EST Sun Jan 14 2024 Broad longwave trough continues over the U. from the Great Lakes into the W Gulf with moist SW flow aloft producing thick cirrus shield over the Gulf and FL Peninsula this morning as the old surface frontal boundary is stalled over the FL Straits and high pressure continues to weaken in the Deep South. The next impulse wrapping around the base of the upper trough is expected to develop the next Gulf storm system Monday with the stalled front moving back Nward as a warm front with increasing dewpoints and temps.
1041 PM CST Sat Jan 13 2024 (This evening through Sunday) Currently, a potent trough is situated in the central US allowing an Arctic airmass to plunge into the southern Plains. At the surface, a strong back-door cold front is sweeping across the CWA bringing very cold and moderately windy conditions behind it. As the trough progresses eastward, some weak high pressure will build into our area. However, the cold airmass is so dense that temperatures are forecast to remain below freezing pretty much area wide with the possible exception of the southwestern South Plains.
A passing low pressure system will bring some light snow showers to far northern Arizona early this morning, with the best chance of snow over the Chuska Mountains. This is along the western side of a large trough covering the eastern 2/3 of the country.
1238 AM EST Sun Jan 14 2024 A weakening cold front will move into the area today with limited moisture.
Yet another round of light snow could move through northeast KS on Monday as an upper level trough axis dives southward out of Canada.
May increase precip chances for the liklihood of seeing snow, but keep amounts on the low side.
The main weather player this week will continue to be the low that brought a lot of snow to parts of Wisconsin. This low continues to slowly die as it meanders towards Hudson Bay and then eventually comes back toward us from the north with much less moisture and vigor. Eventually by next Monday, WAA begins to slide in from the west for a period of warmer temperatures and a pattern change.
North winds are gradually backing off where it is the coldest, keeping wind chills warmer than -20F.
1013 PM CST Sat Jan 13 2024 (This evening through Sunday night) The passage of a cold front occurred earlier today with arctic air settling across the panhandles for the weekend. This will see the highs in the single digits to teens with only a few warm spots possibly reaching the low 20s.
The snow-band is along a cold front. A surface cold front was moving rapidly eastward through eastern Oregon and passed through KBKE and KBNO around 03Z. Patchy freezing fog/mist Sunday night. Although winds won't be that strong, wind chill values in the single digits are still possible during the daytime in the lower elevations, especially in parts of the western Magic Valley.
713 AM EST Sun Jan 14 2024 Broad longwave trough continues over the U. from the Great Lakes into the W Gulf with moist SW flow aloft producing thick cirrus shield over the Gulf and FL Peninsula this morning as the old surface frontal boundary is stalled over the FL Straits and high pressure continues to weaken in the Deep South. The next impulse wrapping around the base of the upper trough is expected to develop the next Gulf storm system Monday with the stalled front moving back Nward as a warm front with increasing dewpoints and temps.
944 AM EST Sun Jan 14 2024 Cloud decks, courtesy of a warm front over the state, continue to stream across SoFlo and mainly at the mid-upper levels, with a relatively dry band below 500-600mb. High temperatures will be cooler, ranging from the mid 60s around the Lake region, to the low 70s along the Atlantic and Gulf coasts. Southerly winds in the wake of this frontal boundary will usher in a warmer airmass, with high temperatures returning to the mid to upper 70s.
The associated arctic air mass allowed temperatures to plummet 20 to 30 degrees within a few hours, with some areas seeing high temperatures around the freezing mark.
However, the saturation at and below the inversion could lead to freezing drizzle, thanks to the formation of super-cooled liquid droplets.
Today will be a slight improvement from yesterday; less wind and a few degrees "warmer".
Temperatures actually climbed a couple degrees during the early morning hours, and were observed near 70F with dewpoints increasing as well from the low to mid 60s into the upper 60s. The cold frontal surface gradually worked its depth up just above 2K feet overnight, estimated by cloud ceilings. After the lower tropospheric ridge axis lifts northward early this week with temporary drying, some uncertainty exists even so Monday night with guidance still showing small slugs of 700 mb moisture rounding the ridge.
Beginning Monday, weak high pressure building in from the Pacific will bring increasing temperatures and quieter weather.
A bit of moisture is present in the lowest levels but the bulk of saturation is above 600mb across central FL, the exception being the Treasure Coast. This will be short lived however, as a stalled front over the FL Straits begins a journey back northward as a warm front to begin the week. This will increase rain chances to 30-40% through the day for the Treasure Coast and Lake Okeechobee vicinity, spreading to the Space Coast and Orlando area by this evening and overnight following the warm front. With dense cloud cover across the area, highs will remain in the 60s, a few degrees below normal for mid-January, with the lower 70s for the immediate Treasure Coast. MVFR/IFR conditions possible after 10Z tonight with increasing moisture along the warm front.
(Rest of today through Monday) Models and satellite imagery place a warm frontal boundary right across SoFlo, slowly migrating northward. Southerly winds are also expected in the wake of the FROPA, bringing warmer air and afternoon temps in the upper 70s to around 80.
Some moisture will also lift northward behind the pseudo-warm front and could keep at least slight chance PoPs for Monday and Monday night.
In fact, many locations were around 10-15 degrees warmer at daybreak today compared to the same time yesterday.
This will see highs remain below freezing with single digits to teens of most of the panhandles and overnight lows in the positive to negative single digits.
Light snow and freezing rain possible through tonight and early Monday, and dangersously cold wind chill values expected across Some flurries and light snowfall continues to fall across the area, with some areas across the Northwest Hill Country, Heartland, and eastern portions of the Concho Valley and Northern Edwards Plateau experiencing a mix of light snow and freezing rain through this evening and overnight. Expected snowfall and freezing rain accumulations will be light overall, but even a small amount of ice can cause surfaces, especially roads, to become very slippery and dangerous. Overnight lows tonight are expected to drop to around 10 to 20 degrees above zero, with wind chill values falling below freezing across much of the Big Country.
The highest totals occurred near Mt Tam with a few sites over 4.
353 PM EST Sun Jan 14 2024 Arctic high pressure will extend into the area into mid week resulting in very cold conditions.
After this disturbance clears out, a weak high pressure ridge will build in over the area, allowing for temperatures to warm up.
(This afternoon through Monday night) It's a pretty cold airmass when there are sunny skies and temperatures still are unable to get above freezing with no snow on the ground. Another day of sun may moderate temperatures a bit more tomorrow as long as the clouds dissipate or move east as expected so the high forecast is a little higher than today. Tomorrow night an upper trough moving into the Great Plains pushes a reinforcing surge of cold air into the area bringing our coldest temperatures.
-A reinforcing arctic cold front crosses the area Monday with winds increasing again.
A passing low pressure system will bring some light snow showers to far northern Arizona early this morning, with the best chance of snow over the Chuska Mountains. Have updated the forecast for the high clouds that are streaming over northern Arizona. This is along the western side of a large trough covering the eastern 2/3 of the country.
So far the high temperature at Tulsa has been just 4F. It hasn't been much warmer elsewhere with a high of 7F so far in Fayetteville and 16 in Fort Smith.
Conditions have improved in this area and while some light snow will continue on and off through the rest of today and tonight, accumulations at the lower elevations are expected to be below 2 inches with 3 to 6 inches on the ridges.
This was sampled well with this mornings sounding that shows that a northeast wind exists only in the lowest 1-thousand feet. The low clouds across the Keys has eroded as the shallow inversion has begun mixing out.
20Z upper analysis shows a broad trough over the Midwest with northwesterly flow aloft over the forecast area.
Have updated the forecast for the high clouds that are streaming over northern Arizona. This is along the western side of a large trough covering the eastern 2/3 of the country.