Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
An evening update may be required, but that would only impact temperatures, which remain forecast to reach the lower to mid 50s tonight, making for good windows open conditions. High pressure will drift east the surface through tonight into Thursday, with light southwest winds returning the region.
As of 2pm temps range in the 70s with dewpoints in the 50s to the lower 60s. Satellite indicates fair weather cumulus clouds starting to pop up east of the Missouri River with high pressure dominant over the region. No major changes to the forecast through the extended with overall dry conditions expected and ongoing warmer than averages temperatures.
This remains due to a deep upper-level trough over the Midwest, and a cold front dropping south along with it.
MH Issued 403 AM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025 Today through Thursday: Low clouds continue to push in from the northeast early this morning along with the arrival of cooler temps aloft. The clouds and cooler conditions will result in highs in the upper 60s to around 70 today, around normal for late September. There could be an isolated shower or two in the east today into early Thursday, as an upper level low drops southward across Lake Michigan. Kept precip chances on the low end though, given these marginal delta Ts along with the mean low level flow becoming more northerly than northeast as the colder temps aloft move in. High temps will be a little milder in the low to mid 70s.
313 PM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025 - Rain Showers Exit Southward This Evening - Dry Conditions Next Few Days Primary trough axis is moving across the lower Missouri River Valley this afternoon as 300mb jet streak moves toward the Ohio River Valley. Mid to upper-level ridge has been developing with its axis currently positioned from the northern Rockies toward the Sierra Nevadas. Strong AVA regime over the Front Range and High Plains has led to the development of a surface anticyclone. The remainder of this week and into the weekend will be characterized by dominant mid-level ridging, with lower-level flow southwesterly. Temperatures will generally be in the lower to mid 80s for highs with mid to upper 50s for lows.
542 PM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025 - Rain Showers Exit Southward This Evening - Dry Conditions Next Few Days Primary trough axis is moving across the lower Missouri River Valley this afternoon as 300mb jet streak moves toward the Ohio River Valley. Mid to upper-level ridge has been developing with its axis currently positioned from the northern Rockies toward the Sierra Nevadas. Strong AVA regime over the Front Range and High Plains has led to the development of a surface anticyclone. The remainder of this week and into the weekend will be characterized by dominant mid-level ridging, with lower-level flow southwesterly. Temperatures will generally be in the lower to mid 80s for highs with mid to upper 50s for lows.
Mid-level troughing over the Great Lakes is evident on GOES water vapor imagery this afternoon. Isolated showers will be possible for the remainder of the afternoon and evening as the mid-level trough continues to depart to the southeast. Highs are progged to read well above average throughout the forecast period as thermal ridging establishes itself east of the Rockies. Temperatures will read solidly in the mid to upper 70s during this time, with a chance to hit the low 80s at a few locations sprinkled throughout. Will continue to carry the lowest conditions (VLIFR/LIFR) at RHI where dense fog is expected, with TEMPO groups for some lower conditions elsewhere.
636 PM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025 - Much-needed rain returns over the next 48 hours ahead of a cold front.
528 PM MDT Wed Sep 24 2025 - Warmer and drier conditions continue Thursday before moisture increases from south to north throughout the weekend. The blocking high over the Great Basin is keeping things sunny and cool today on the West Slope. The ridge gets pushed eastward Thursday, as a cutoff low digs southward towards Baja. Models sustain the blocky pattern though, and the eastward progression of the low remains slow to near stationary.
High pressure will remain the dominant weather feature locally while a large-scale trough advances eastward across the central/lower Mississippi Valley. A very summer-like day is in store for the region, with high temperatures topping out in the low to mid 90s away from the coastline along with dew points in the upper 60s to low 70s. Even with some forcing aloft from the trough aloft, precipitation chances are minimal.
The upper-level ridge will maintain clear skies and above-normal temperatures into Thursday, ahead of the next upper-level trough. Cooler temperatures are expected overnight, especially in the mountain valleys. Thursday is forecast to be the warmest day of the week, with highs in the mid to upper 80s across the lower valleys.
343 PM MDT Wed Sep 24 2025 - Warmer and drier conditions continue Thursday before moisture increases from south to north throughout the weekend. The blocking high over the Great Basin is keeping things sunny and cool today on the West Slope. The ridge gets pushed eastward Thursday, as a cutoff low digs southward towards Baja. Models sustain the blocky pattern though, and the eastward progression of the low remains slow to near stationary.
Updated at 752 PM EDT Wed Sep 24 2025 - A cold front will bring showers and thunderstorms each day through the weekend. - Cooler temperatures, near seasonal normals, expected behind the cold front, starting tomorrow. Temperatures will cool off with the arrival of the cold front, which will bring the high temperature tomorrow back down to near-normal levels, in the low 70s to low 90s across northern and central Georgia.
A cold front and upper level disturbances helped bring some beneficial rainfall to portions of Llano and Burnet counties this morning. However, with the front now pushing into the Highway 90 corridor and encountering daytime heating, some new convection is noted from near the west end of Lake Amistad to Uvalde to San Antonio to Schulenburg. While we have seen some slight drying in the low-levels behind the front across portions of the Hill Country and southern Edwards Plateau, atmospheric moisture levels (precipitable water) behind the boundary are still in the 1. This moisture combined with some upper level disturbances embedded in the northwest flow aloft and the cold front will lead to additional rain chances this afternoon and tonight.
658 PM EDT Wed Sep 24 2025 A warm front will push north through the area tonight bringing much needed rain shower activity. Tomorrow a low pressure system will push through area bringing more widespread beneficial rain with some areas receiving the first substantial wetting rains in a month.
High pressure will return partly to mostly sunny conditions this weekend while attention then turns toward a couple of tropical systems moving north along the East Coast. Rain chances will increase through this afternoon and tonight as a warm front lifts into the region by Thursday morning. This is also the area where the highest axis of anomalous moisture is depicted with PW anomalies around 2 SD.
505 PM MDT Wed Sep 24 2025 - Dry with above normal temperatures through the period - Elevated fire weather conditions at times Upper air models show ridge building into the northern plains today as upper low moves over the Great Lakes region.
A weak surface through lower level ridge extends across the Florida Peninsula this evening. However, there are some decent dew point depressions through the lower levels and some low level inhibition. Weak surface through lower level ridging will remain in control through the overnight period. Plan view and forecast soundings suggest some moistening will occur through the lower levels. Weak ridging across Florida will maintain light breezes on Keys waters overnight.
Cooler temperatures are expected most areas tomorrow as onshore flow increases.
208 PM PDT Wed Sep 24 2025 An area of low pressure off the Central Coast will move southward over Southern California into the weekend. This will bring slightly cooler weather along with elevated west winds and a chance for thunderstorms across the mountains and deserts.
Light flow remains in place with slightly warmer overnight lows. Afternoon highs will be in the low 90s area wide. Rain chances increases on Thursday during the afternoon with the highest chances over the interior and SW Fl terminals.
520 PM MDT Wed Sep 24 2025 - Warmer and dry for the rest of the week.
- Seasonal temperatures are expected, with no cold fronts or unseasonable heat forecast. A dry pattern continues tomorrow night into the remainder of the forecast period as upper level ridging builds over the Plains. Slightly above normal temperatures are expected through this period with highs in the low 80s and lows in the 50s.
The higher end of this resulted in minor flooding of prone areas, as well as rises on some rivers and streams. Given it's night time with cooler conditions and a not so unstable environment, am expecting mainly showers with some embedded thunderstorms. With precipitable water amounts on the high side for this time of year, more locally heavy rainfall is possible. On a larger scale, weak troughing over the eastern Lower-48 will amplify as we go into the upcoming weekend. A cold front now extending southward from low pressure over northern Arkansas, will move across the Tennessee Valley during the day Thursday. With more clouds than sun, rain chances, and an airmass change getting underway, high temperatures tomorrow should be a bit cooler, in the upper 70s to lower 80s.
Temperatures are running slightly cooler across western WI due to the persistence of cloud cover this morning. Fog is forecast to mix out by 14/15z and we'll be left with a gorgeous Thursday characterized by sunny skies and highs in the low 80s.
Zonal flow will bring in more fall-like conditions across western Washington through the remainder of the week, with cooler temperatures and periods of cloudy skies.
525 PM MDT Wed Sep 24 2025 - A ridge of high pressure aloft will lead to drier and warmer weather for Thursday through the weekend. Quiet weather is expected through the short term as we see high pressure controlling the region through the period, keeping precipitation nil and temperatures back on the rise on Thursday. Benign conditions persist tonight, and with clear skies again another chance of some freezing conditions is possible, but at this time the bulk of this should be confined to the high terrain around the Snowy and Sierra Madre ranges, with some cooler air perhaps as low as the adjacent valleys but at this time not widespread enough to warrant a freeze warning.
A dry cold front will then sweep across the region from west to east Thursday, with increasingly strong westerly winds during the day.
Scattered showers and storms will continue to be possible even after the surface front moves through as the upper trough lags behind.
- Cooler temperatures and dry weather late this week and this weekend. (This evening through Thursday) The cold front has moved to the south of our forecast area today. The cold front and dense cloud cover has kept temperatures around 15 to 25 degrees cooler this afternoon compared to yesterday at this time. (Friday night through next Thursday) Weak ridging aloft will prevail over the area Friday through the weekend, in advance of an upper level low developing over the Desert Southwest.
As of 2pm temps range in the 70s with dewpoints in the 50s to the lower 60s. Satellite indicates fair weather cumulus clouds starting to pop up east of the Missouri River with high pressure dominant over the region. No major changes to the forecast through the extended with overall dry conditions expected and ongoing warmer than averages temperatures. Ridging continues over the region through early Friday with more of a wavy zonal flow pattern over Canada with winds aloft over the region out of the north, turning northwest Thursday, then out of the southwest by Friday.
At midnight CDT, a cold front was beginning to enter northwest North Dakota. The main features weather wise are a couple of weak cold fronts that move through the forecast area. The cold front passage will result in a wind shift to the north to northeast by daytime Thursday, with some cooler temperatures most areas, moreso in the north though. Another cold front moves through the forecast area Friday. There will be some breezy conditions both ahead and behind the cold front, yet these will remain below advisory criteria and will not be long lived with this quick moving feature.
Issued 348 AM CDT Thu Sep 25 2025 Today through Friday: Areas of lingering low clouds mainly east of Madison early this morning should gradually improve by mid-morning, as low pressure pulls away to the east. Could see a similar round of fog tonight into early Friday under high pressure. Temperatures will be a little milder today than yesterday, given more sunshine expected and warmer temps aloft.
Not much change to the overall synoptic pattern as we still expect the southern portion of a large posivively-tiled upper trough extending from southeast Canada to north Texas to swing east- southeastward and deepen with the axis reaching Alabama and the central Gulf by midnight Friday night. The trough then stalls between an upper ridge building over the Great Plains and an upper high pressure area over the Atlantic.
(Today and tonight) The highly anticipated rainfall arrives today thanks to an approaching cold front moving across the MS Valley. High temperatures are forecast to be in the low 90s.
The main features weather wise are a couple of weak cold fronts that move through the forecast area. The cold front passage will result in a wind shift to the north to northeast by daytime Thursday, with some cooler temperatures most areas, moreso in the north though. Another cold front moves through the forecast area Friday. There will be some breezy conditions both ahead and behind the cold front, yet these will remain below advisory criteria and will not be long lived with this quick moving feature.
The continued dense cloud cover has kept the low level moisture intact with limited daytime mixing. Once the nocturnal inversion sets up, it is expected to hold the low level moisture in place and allow for fog to develop across the region tonight. This will allow for plenty of sunshine and highs in the low to mid 70s tomorrow. A trough axis extending southwest from Northern Michigan into the Southern Plains will continue to pivot counterclockwise into the Lower Mississippi Valley later this week. Through the weekend, a strong ridge is expected to build in between these lows into the Upper Midwest.
- A cold front will push through the region this evening into Thursday accompanied by scattered showers and thunderstorms. Drier and somewhat cooler air will filter into the region Thursday evening through the weekend.
- Drier this weekend in the wake of an upper trough/sfc front - Upper trough/low over southeast CONUS midweek could cut off along the coast, and could bring a return of small (<20%) rain chances, particularly east of I-55. By mid week, an upper trough/low over the southeast CONUS could cut off and meander near the coast. /SAS/ (06Z TAFS) A cold front will continue moving through the region this morning and bring a wind shift out of the w-nw.
High temps this afternoon will generally be in the lower 90s. On Friday a trough starts to dig down into the Gulf, while a surface front will approach the Florida panhandle by the evening. High temps on Friday will remain above normal generally reaching the lower 90s.
425 AM EDT Thu Sep 25 2025 Updated at 342 AM EDT Thu Sep 25 2025 - A cold front will bring showers and thunderstorms through the weekend. - Cooler temperatures, near seasonal normals, expected behind the cold front, starting Today. With the expected cloud cover and precip Temps today will be a lot cooler with highs mainly in the lower 80s. Areas of east central GA will still get up into the lower 80s as the front wont be able to make it that far south to hinder prime daytime heating. Day time highs Friday will se all locations in the lower to middle 80s.
- A dry cold front brings breezy and slightly cooler conditions to the region Friday. Warm and dry conditions are forecast through the weekend with upper level ridging generally in place. While the core of this system will pass too far north to produce any precipitation for us, it will send a dry cold front through our area. This will bring breezy conditions and slightly cooler temperatures to the area on Friday. Look for winds to taper off across the area Friday afternoon and evening as low amplitude ridging builds back in over the region.
Early morning surface analysis shows a large area of high pressure across the central CONUS stretching from the southern Plains to the upper Midwest. Aloft, an upper low was seen rotating over the Great Lakes centered over northwest MI. Otherwise, quiet and dry conditions will be seen with lows dropping into the lower 50s.
- Numerous showers and storms expected across the higher terrain this weekend along with a threat for flash flooding. Isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to continue south of I-10 through the evening, mainly from the Davis Mountains to the Lower Trans-Pecos (20-40% chances). Likewise, tomorrow's temperatures are also expected to be seasonable, albeit a couple of degrees warmer than today (highs in the low-to-mid 80s).
1124 PM MDT Wed Sep 24 2025 - Dry with above normal temperatures through the period - Elevated fire weather conditions at times Upper air models show ridge building into the northern plains today as upper low moves over the Great Lakes region. Upper ridge continues over the northern plains for Thursday before flattening out on Friday as upper trough skirts across southern Canada.
Cold front will make it way southeast thru the area today. Cooler airmass behind this front, with strongest cold advection in Manitoba and into northeast ND with a drop of about 7-9C in 925 mb temperatures comparing this aftn to yesterday aftn. Warmer south with highs near 80 possible along SD border before front arrives. High pressure settles in and significantly cooler tonight with lows in the 40s, near 40 in some places closer to the Intl border and NW MN cooler spots. Quick warm up though on Friday as south winds increase to 15-25 mph in the aftn out ahead of another cold front.
Updated at 233 AM EDT Thu Sep 25 2025 - A cold front will bring showers and thunderstorms each day through the weekend. - Cooler temperatures, near seasonal normals, expected behind the cold front, starting tomorrow. Temperatures will cool off with the arrival of the cold front, which will bring the high temperature tomorrow back down to near-normal levels, in the low 70s to low 90s across northern and central Georgia.
A mid/upper ridge is progged to build over the Rockies and High Plains today as the trough responsible for our recent wet weather continues to translate eastward away from the area. This mid/upper ridge is progged to linger over the area as a blocking pattern becomes established.
1111 PM MDT Wed Sep 24 2025 - Warmer and dry for the rest of the week.
Temperatures are running slightly cooler across western WI due to the persistence of cloud cover this morning. Fog is forecast to mix out by 14/15z and we'll be left with a gorgeous Thursday characterized by sunny skies and highs in the low 80s. Of note, we did give the high temperatures a little bit of a boost by blending in NBM90th percentile highs given the persistence of a pattern that has produced overachievement above the operational NBM over the past few days.
1153 PM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025 - Rain Showers Exit Southward This Evening - Dry Conditions Next Few Days Primary trough axis is moving across the lower Missouri River Valley this afternoon as 300mb jet streak moves toward the Ohio River Valley. Mid to upper-level ridge has been developing with its axis currently positioned from the northern Rockies toward the Sierra Nevadas. Strong AVA regime over the Front Range and High Plains has led to the development of a surface anticyclone. The remainder of this week and into the weekend will be characterized by dominant mid-level ridging, with lower-level flow southwesterly. Temperatures will generally be in the lower to mid 80s for highs with mid to upper 50s for lows.
This morning, an upper low remains parked over the Great Lakes with upper level troughing extending southwest across the mid Mississippi Valley. At the surface, low pressure is over the Ohio Valley with northwest flow in place in its wake across central Illinois. Temps will top out in the mid to upper 70s today under mostly sunny skies, then will dip into the low to mid 50s tonight. A second wave taking a similar path over the weekend will be followed by a strong and amplifying upper ridge. The ridge will settle along the entirety of the Mississippi Valley late this weekend and linger through much of the upcoming week as an Omega block pattern redevelops.
Most CAMs highlight the lower to mid valley, especially Cameron County Thursday afternoon with scattered showers and thunderstorms.
The cold front is now south of the area with only some lingering showers remaining along the Rio Grande and over Coastal Plains early this morning. Today will be notably cooler for many locations, though afternoon highs will still be warm peaking from the mid 80s to low 90s. Light wind and clear to mostly sunny skies are seen Friday as ridging builds over the area.
A surface cold front is currently pushing through the region from NW to SE, and convection has begun to develop along a lone from POF to CIR to PAH.
Pattern Synopsis: Broad cutoff low pressure over the central and eastern Great Lakes will slowly meander eastward with time today into tonight. Will have to wait for diurnal heating to scour out the low cloud and fog.
219 AM CDT Thu Sep 25 2025 - Areas of fog burn off this morning, and a weak cold front could bring some sprinkles to Cook County and NW WI this afternoon.
At the same time, some of the storms have been slow-moving which have allowed the higher end rainfall amounts to approach the 3-4 inches for totals. As we head into this weekend, our upper-level pattern changes to be more upper-level ridging giving us a stretch for most locations, with low chances of PoPs (20-30% chance) thanks to daytime heating and sea-breeze driven.
1121 PM MDT Wed Sep 24 2025 - Warmer and drier conditions continue Thursday before moisture increases from south to north throughout the weekend. The blocking high over the Great Basin is keeping things sunny and cool today on the West Slope. The ridge gets pushed eastward Thursday, as a cutoff low digs southward towards Baja. Models sustain the blocky pattern though, and the eastward progression of the low remains slow to near stationary. With the ridge overhead Thursday, afternoon highs return to normal. Overnight lows on Friday morning tick up a few degrees thanks to the warmer advection and cloud cover. On Friday, a strong jet nosing over the Pacific Northwest will push the stalled low pressure over California to the Desert Southwest. There looks to be minimal forcing when the moisture arrives so expecting showers in the high terrain.
- Cooler temperatures and dry weather late this week and this weekend. (Friday night through next Thursday) Weak ridging aloft will prevail over the area Friday through the weekend, in advance of an upper level low developing over the Desert Southwest.
Upper ridge axis will move from the Rockies to the Plains today and tonight, resulting in clear skies, light winds and temperatures near to slightly above normal. Temperatures will cool into the low and middle 40s over east- central Colorado to the upper 40s and low 50s over the remainder of the area. Mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies are forecast Thursday with high temperatures trending a few degrees warmer, from the upper 70s to low 80s.