Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
(Today through Thursday) High pressure builds in across the region today leading to mostly clear skies for much of the day. Overall, thinking the antecedent relatively dry air mass and low level ridging should temper the coverage of any thunderstorm activity, but there's enough signal to include at least 30% chance for thunderstorms across the western portions of Central AL and 20- 30% elsewhere across much of the area.
Ridging builds in behind this wave for tonight through Wednesday night. Any stronger convection is not expected, which will tend to limit precipitation amounts to the lower end. For those reasons, confidence is increasing that precipitation amounts will be on the lower side.
Temperatures will be cooler today and Thursday with some patchy frost possible in the northern Adirondacks tonight and Thursday night.
Following areas of early morning patchy fog, temperatures are forecast to warm into the low to upper 80s today.
A wide range of temperatures exist this morning, with upper 40s in northeast MO closer to high pressure to the upper 60s in urban core of Downtown Kansas City. The primary upper trough by Thursday into the weekend will be displaced well to our northwest/north, with a subtropical jet over northern Mexico into Texas.
The remainder of the night will be dry with some clearing in central and north-central WI, as high pressure sneaks into the region. High pressure will continue to build over the area allowing for the return of dry weather.
1033 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024 (Rest of tonight) Only high cirrus can be seen on satellite this evening as high pressure continues to expand across the Midwest and into the Southeast.
(Through Wednesday) Large-scale troughing shifts off to the east gradually while ridging builds over the Plains. Meanwhile, we're still embedded in northwesterly flow aloft, though now behind a cold front, meaning drier air is overtaking the area. Otherwise, lows will be "cooler" tonight, settling in the mid to upper 60s. Highs will once again be hot tomorrow in the lower to middle 90s. Temperatures for the short term start with morning lows in the upper 60s, and afternoon highs in the low to mid-90s, and upper 80s for areas north of I-10.
Expect to see some very patchy fog early this morning in the low lying areas and river valleys, but any fog will quickly burn off shortly after sunrise. Today will see similar conditions to what we experienced yesterday, with temperatures and dew point values expected to be slightly lower than yesterday with the more northwesterly winds bringing in cooler and drier air. We'll still be sitting at the base of the trough extending up into the Great Lakes region and there is enough energy on the southern edge to see rain chances over KY/WV/VA today.
Upper trough over the Pacific Northwest slides across the Rockies today. Early afternoon thunderstorm development is expected across the higher elevations of eastern Wyoming and the northern Black Hills with additional development along the surface trof. Cold front pushes through overnight with a brief period of gusty northwest winds. Cooler on Thursday with a few lingering showers/thunderstorms possible over the Black Hills and south central South Dakota.
This afternoon, there may be some breaks in the low clouds that may allow for increased daytime heating. The upper ridge will slide east into the Plains today, which will give way to the next trough axis over the Pacific Northwest. Due to the low clouds and cooler air mass, much of the area is likely to remain under a strong capping inversion. However, given the small potential of breaking in the low stratus deck, slight chance PoPs were maintained through the afternoon and evening.
As the front moves east today, the low level jet strengthens, pulling moisture northward along the Montana/North Dakota border. As the upper trough sweeps across the Canadian prairies, cooler temperatures along with some unstable air lingers over the region for Thursday. VFR through late afternoon when a cold front will cross the region with scattered showers and thunderstorms. Winds will increase from the northwest behind the cold front, Gusty, erratic, severe wind gusts are expected near the stronger storms this evening.
Overall little change in the weather today compared to yesterday: a passing trough to our north will bring a slight uptick in gusts this afternoon.
315 AM MST Wed May 29 2024 Dry and tranquil weather conditions will persist through at least the weekend, but expect continued above normal temperatures as high pressure generally dominates across the region. High temperatures each day across the lower deserts will run around five degrees above normal with readings between 100 and 105 degrees under sunny to mostly sunny skies. The weather pattern through the weekend will keep dry zonal westerly flow over the Desert Southwest with influences from the sub-tropical ridge which will remain positioned to our south.
BRO radar currently shows strong convection over eastern Cameron County and across the Lower Texas Gulf waters.
A few degrees warmer across the board today as the warm up continues. (Today and tonight) The upper low in the PacNW which slowed our warming trend slightly pulls away today, and we begin to see 500 mb height rises with the next ridge building in. Expect highs in the low- to-mid 80s inland, 70s around much of the immediate Bay Area, and low-to-mid 60s along the coast.
743 AM EDT Wed May 29 2024 (Today through Thursday) The overall pattern today will be similar to yesterday with broad troughing over the east coast and west-northwest flow aloft prevailing over SFL. At the surface, the synoptic gradient will remain light south of a stalled cold front over Central Florida, favoring a relatively deep inland progression of both sea breezes. It will remain another hot and humid day (prior to convective initiation) with highs ranging from the low 90s near the immediate coasts to the upper 90s in the Interior, along with widespread peak heat indices of 100-105 degrees.
500mb height falls and abnormally cool temps aloft associated with the aforementioned trough will provide large scale lift and a period of steep lapse rates within a zone of modest instability to produce scattered to numerous diurnally enhanced showers and t-storms. A couple of showers or an isolated PM t-storm are possible Thursday afternoon beneath the upper trough axis mainly over southeast PA, but lower pwat air pouring into the region via NNW low level flow should keep most places dry. Highs will again be cooler-than-average with fcst max temps in the low 60s/70s.
500mb height falls and abnormally cool temps aloft associated with the aforementioned trough will provide large scale lift and a period of steep lapse rates within a zone of modest instability which will support locally heavy rainfall. A couple of showers or an isolated PM t-storm are possible Thursday afternoon beneath the upper trough axis mainly over southeast PA, but lower pwat air pouring into the region via NNW low level flow should keep most places dry. Highs will again be cooler-than-average with fcst max temps in the low 60s/70s.
Weak high pressure builds in over the southeast U. Rain chances remain on the low side (20-40 percent) through the period.
The 12z sounding at KEY sampled quasi-steady geopotential heights extending from the lower troposphere up to the 500 mb isobaric surface. Coupled with dew points in the mid to upper 70s, heat indices will likely top out in the low 100s for much of the afternoon at many communities. High pressure currently over south- central Canada will emerge off the Mid-Atlantic coast by the end of the work week.
(Today through Thursday) High pressure continues to build into the area with a drier airmass in place. High temps today will be mainly in the 80s across the area Today and a bit cooler Thu with the increased cloud cover.
614 AM CDT Wed May 29 2024 Following areas of early morning patchy fog, temperatures are forecast to warm into the low to upper 80s today.
(Rest of Today) A cold front can be seen in observations extending from the Ohio Valley southwest through the Nashville, TN area and into SW TN. This may allow portions of NW Alabama to remain warmer this afternoon (highs in the 80 to 85 degree range). Further east, highs will likely be a bit cooler with stronger cold air advection occurring behind the front in those locations.
Ridging over the northeastern Pacific will build into the region today as yesterday's trough slides to the east.
548 AM CDT Wed May 29 2024 - Quiet weather is forecast today through Thursday with high temperatures in the lower to mid 70s.
952 AM EDT Wed May 29 2024 A cooler and drier air mass will gradually build into the region through the end of the week, with high pressure moving across the region at the start of the weekend.
Temperatures had been several degrees warmer than guidance and forecast and were rebounding strongly in the morning Sun. Temperatures today will be in the mid 70s into the low 80s from north to south, and will overall be a pleasant weather day. Expect to see some very patchy fog early this morning in the low lying areas and river valleys, but any fog will quickly burn off shortly after sunrise. Today will see similar conditions to what we experienced yesterday, with temperatures and dew point values expected to be slightly lower than yesterday with the more northwesterly winds bringing in cooler and drier air. We'll still be sitting at the base of the trough extending up into the Great Lakes region and there is enough energy on the southern edge to see rain chances over KY/WV/VA today.
538 AM CDT Wed May 29 2024 (Today through Thursday) High pressure builds in across the region today leading to mostly clear skies for much of the day. Overall, thinking the antecedent relatively dry air mass and low level ridging should temper the coverage of any thunderstorm activity, but there's enough signal to include at least 30% chance for thunderstorms across the western portions of Central AL and 20- 30% elsewhere across much of the area.
629 AM EDT Wed May 29 2024 (Today and tonight) Dry conditions and light northerly winds are expected across the area today in the wake of a weak cold front. Temperatures are forecast to be slightly cooler as a result of the front, with the biggest difference expected in the low temperatures thanks to the drier air.
557 AM EDT Wed May 29 2024 High pressure will build in from the west mid to late week, passing overhead and then offshore over the weekend. Today: The cold front is now offshore and will propagate farther way from the area today. A broad, cyclonic flow aloft associated with longwave trough across the eastern CONUS will keep downslope trajectories in the lee of the Southern Appalachians in place again today. The boundary layer looks to decouple by mid-evening resulting in calm/light surface winds even as a secondary, dry cold front crosses the area. Mid level trough persists over the eastern U.
Dry and tranquil weather conditions will persist through at least the weekend, but expect continued above normal temperatures as high pressure generally dominates across the region. High temperatures each day across the lower deserts will run around five degrees above normal with readings between 100 and 105 degrees under sunny to mostly sunny skies. The weather pattern through the weekend will keep dry zonal westerly flow over the Desert Southwest with influences from the sub-tropical ridge which will remain positioned to our south.
1042 AM EDT Wed May 29 2024 High pressure will build in from the west mid to late week, passing overhead and then offshore over the weekend. Otherwise, the cold front is continues to move farther way from our area. A broad, cyclonic flow aloft associated with longwave trough across the eastern CONUS will keep downslope trajectories in the lee of the Southern Appalachians in place again today. The boundary layer looks to decouple by mid-evening resulting in calm/light surface winds even as a secondary, dry cold front crosses the area. Mid level trough persists over the eastern U.
601 AM EDT Wed May 29 2024 A cooler and drier air mass will gradually build into the region through the end of the week, with high pressure moving across the region at the start of the weekend.
(Tonight through Thursday night) Key Messages: - A major risk of heat related impacts on Thursday - Low to medium chance of showers and thunderstorms late tonight and Thursday High pressure remains in control over South Texas through Thursday; however, a ripple in the flow will move just to the north of our area. The temperatures will be a few degrees warmer for Thursday, with highs in the 90s along the coast and into the low 100s over the Brush Country.
The most likely location for storms will be across far western portions of the area as convection initiates along a dryline in west Texas and/or the higher terrain in Mexico and then drift east through the evening as they dissipate.
The CAMs, including the HREF are firing a few areas, or clusters, of storms off the Laramie Range and Pine Ridge around 18z this afternoon. The storms should continue to drift east through ncntl Nebraska late tonight, carried along by the nocturnal the low level jet. This is the basis for the SPC Day1 outlook of a relatively narrow north-south stripe of severe weather potential along the high Plains.
The broad trough over the region has brought in a seasonably cool air mass.
An initial round/complex of storms is possible by as early as ~2-4 AM Thursday morning, as previous convection across the High Plains merges/consolidates along advancing cold pools.
50 inch of rain in a short amount of time especially between the highway 83 and 281 corridors.
(Tonight) A cold front is currently moving southeast into northern Alabama. Northerly winds should drop off later this evening and become fairly light, except in the higher elevations. Thus, kept lows in the lower 50s in those shelter valley locations east of the I-65 corridor.
Overnight, there is some guidance suggesting redevelopment of showers along a warm front pushing north across the area, so it wouldn't be surprising if we see an uptick in convective rainfall late tonight and perhaps into the early morning along some west- east oriented axis (e.
Temperatures will remain hot and humid day (prior to convective initiation) with highs ranging from the low 90s near the immediate coasts to the upper 90s in the Interior, along with widespread peak heat indices of 100-105 degrees.
350 PM EDT Wed May 29 2024 High pressure will build in from the west mid to late week, passing overhead and then offshore over the weekend. A longwave mid-level trough will prevail over the East Coast. A weak cold front will move through around midnight, then quickly shift offshore. Therefore, we went with the low end of guidance. A pseudo Omega blocking pattern will be in place across NOAM to start the short term period with ridging from the southern Plains into the Upper Midwest/western Great Lakes anchored by troughs across western Canada/northwest U.
The highest CAPE values, up to 1500-2000 J/kg, are still expected over the east. In contrast, the highest Shear is expected over the western and central areas, up to 50-70 kts, and lower values closer to 30-40 kts are expected over the east. Currently, several inches of snow (6-8" over the highest peaks) are possible over the mountains, with a 40-50% chance of at least 4 inches.
1108 AM EDT Wed May 29 2024 Drier and cooler weather will continue moving into the region as high pressure builds in from the upper Mississippi Valley. A closed upper level low is positioned over the Great Lakes region/Ohio Valley, with its associated broad upper level trough extending across most of the eastern U. Meanwhile, an upper level ridge is in place over the Rockies. At the surface, weak high pressure continues to build into the region. Most areas should experience highs in the upper 80s to near 90, which is above normal but still slightly cooler than yesterday. A reinforcing cold front will push south through the forecast area tonight bringing some cooler air to the region.
Meaning those warmer interior areas get a good break between these warm days.
Expect highs to generally be seasonable across the area, with most lower elevations seeing highs gradually warm from near 60 on Thursday to the low to mid 70s for the weekend. Key Points: -A few thunderstorms are expected across Southwestern Montana this afternoon and early evening, some of which may bring gusty winds and a heavy downpour -Cooler and drier through the weekend Short Term (through Thursday). A cold front continues to push through Southwestern Montana this afternoon, which has been the focal point for showers and even a few strong thunderstorms this afternoon that have brought some localized accumulating hail. Further north across the Plains, cooler and drier air have continued to work into the area, which has resulted in most areas seeing highs some 15-20 degrees cooler than they were yesterday.
A moderately amplified upper level pattern continues over the CONUS with upper ridging extending northward through the central U. and broad upper troughing digging south through the mid-Atlantic states. This pattern becomes more amplified over the next couple of days as the trough moves into the western Atlantic and upper ridging moves into the Ohio River Valley and then gradually over the eastern seaboard over the weekend. On the surface, a weak cold front washes out and pushes southeastward as weak high pressure builds in over the southeast U. By Thursday, broad high pressure centered over the central Great Lakes ridges southward through the Ohio River Valley and into the eastern Gulf of Mexico.
Although CAPE values are around 3000 J/kg this afternoon, a stronger ridge is in place today than yesterday which should be a tougher cap for potential convection to fight through.
A push of cooler, moist air brings low clouds to Natrona County between 2 AM and 8 AM Thursday.
331 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024 - Frost is expected tonight in the Arrowhead, North Shore high terrain ridge, and across much of northwest Wisconsin and all of north-central Wisconsin late tonight into early Thursday. Prime radiational cooling with lingering dewpoints in the low-30s could create some frost in the Arrowhead late tonight lasting into early Thursday morning.
Cold front has shifted through East Idaho, with upper trough axis working through. Cooler airmass in place behind this front, and temperatures drop cold enough to support yet another night of Frost headlines for portions of the Snake Plain. Coldest temperatures will be from Shoshone-Arco-Mud Lake-Rexburg, with much of the populated I-15/I-86 corridor expected to be warmer than the 36F threshold for frost. Weak broad trough remains in place over the region into Thursday/Thursday night, allowing for the coldest period as drier and clearer air mass works into the region.
Tomorrow is slightly cooler but overall pleasant and dry. Winds aloft look to pivot to more northerly flow under the upper trough, which brings in a slightly cooler airmass in. This, coupled with the slightly cooler airmass, should result in slightly cooler afternoon highs tomorrow.
1251 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024 A dry cold front continues to slowly slide south through west Tennessee and eastern Arkansas at this hour. Low level cloud cover is non-existent, so temperatures should continue to climb into the low to mid 80s areawide through late afternoon. AC3 Following areas of early morning patchy fog, temperatures are forecast to warm into the low to upper 80s today.
RH behind a cold front in FL will fall into the 40s this afternoon leaving the area feeling cooler than the 85 degrees we're expecting for a high temp. Overnight lows will fall into the low 60s across southern GA with mid to low 50s north of Columbus to Macon as a result of dry weather.
A broad mid to upper longwave trough is located over the eastern third of the country with weaker troughing aloft over the region from the eastern Gulf into the southern Florida with weak west to southwest flow in the mid and upper levels above the keys. Otherwise, light and variable 4-8 mph under mostly clear skies with typically humid lows in the lower 80s.
1246 PM EDT Wed May 29 2024 A weak cold front will move through the area tonight, bringing a reinforcing shot of cooler/drier air to the area for the rest of the week.
- Quiet weather is forecast today through Thursday with high temperatures in the lower to mid 70s.
212 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024 - Quiet weather is forecast through Thursday with high temperatures in the lower to mid 70s.
Warmer than normal temperatures and dry weather are on tap for the region through the end of the week. Winds will pick up this weekend as a trough digs along the West Coast and moves through the area. Current satellite and water vapor imagery show a trough moving through the northern Great Basin/Intermountain West. Outside of today's temperatures being a degree or two cooler than yesterday's high temperatures, impacts from this system will be minimal to nonexistent for the Desert Southwest. Upper-level flow will become will become more westerly to west-northwesterly on Thursday as this trough ejects into the Northern Plains.
130 PM EDT Wed May 29 2024 High pressure will build in from the west mid to late week, passing overhead and then offshore over the weekend. Broad, cyclonic flow aloft associated with a longwave trough across the eastern CONUS is keeping downslope trajectories in the lee of the Southern Appalachians in place. The boundary layer looks to decouple by mid-evening resulting in calm/light surface winds even as a secondary, dry cold front crosses the area. Mid level trough persists over the eastern U.
The greatest chances of showers and thunderstorms will occur near the trough axis over the far southern Panhandle and northern Rolling Plains for this time period. Given the higher dewpoints, severe weather cannot be completely ruled out, however it will be much more isolated compared to that of yesterday.
Upper trough over the Pacific Northwest slides across the Rockies today. Early afternoon thunderstorm development is expected across the higher elevations of eastern Wyoming and the northern Black Hills with additional development along the surface trof. Cold front pushes through overnight with a brief period of gusty northwest winds. Cooler on Thursday with a few lingering showers/thunderstorms possible over the Black Hills and south central South Dakota. Another round of showers/storms will develop later this evening with the cold front, which could affect both KGCC and KRAP. Additionally, some brief LLWS will be possible across south central SD tonight as the trough moves through. Behind the cold front, winds will become northwesterly and somewhat breezy.
1032 AM CDT Wed May 29 2024 - Quiet weather is forecast today through Thursday with high temperatures in the lower to mid 70s.
329 PM EDT Wed May 29 2024 Upper level low departs tonight and Thursday.
145 PM EDT Wed May 29 2024 A cooler and drier air mass will gradually build into the region through the end of the week, with high pressure moving across the region at the start of the weekend.
Upper ridge axis has finally shifted east of the Rockies and has emerged across the Great Plains today and that trend will slowly continue through the end of the work week.
pdf The weakening cold front is over south central Florida this afternoon and will remain fairly stationary through tonight or perhaps dissipate over South Florida as high pressure builds to the north of the region. Lows tonight will "cool" into the low to upper 60s to near 70 at the beaches and along the St.
(This evening through Thursday) High pressure will be over the southeast through tomorrow.
A couple of showers or an isolated PM t-storm are possible Thursday afternoon beneath the upper trough axis mainly over southeast PA, but lower pwat air pouring into the region via NNW low level flow should keep most places dry. Highs will again be cooler-than-average with fcst max temps in the low 60s/70s.