Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Post Tropical Cyclone Francine was centered near Memphis this evening with multiple spokes of vorticity wrapping around it. Temperatures tonight will be a bit cool as the upper trough that picked up Francine works its way into the region. Friday night again with continued dry air moving into the region, overnight lows will be a bit "fresher" with nearly all locations being a few degrees cooler than Friday morning.
High surf will be subsiding, with the High Surf Warning expiring at 7 PM.
But, the highest coverage should remain over the Atlantic waters, thanks to westerly steering flow. LEE has the highest chance of reductions, with prevailing BKN015 forecast.
For tomorrow it looks like the highest concentration of rain and storms should be along the Nature Coast with shower chances diminishing as we head south. A stationary frontal boundary remains stretched from west to east across northern Florida, while high pressure ridges through the Florida Straits.
Tonight through Friday Night: A potent upper level low that will move from western Montana into the Canadian Plains region will dominate the sensible weather across the region. An associated surface frontal system will bring a weak cold front into central Nebraska by Friday afternoon.
832 PM EDT Thu Sep 12 2024 Dry weather and above average temperatures continue through the weekend with high pressure. These clouds will keep temperatures just a touch warmer than last night, mainly in the mid and upper 50s. Still, the warmer overnight lows should keep coverage a bit less tonight. High pressure remains dominant as Francine's remnants will slowly meander north but be blocked off to our south and west as strong 588-590 dam upper level ridging builds across the Great Lakes region. The high remains firmly entrenched for the weekend.
A rainband associated with the cyclone was moving northward from south/central AL to across NW AL.
Weak upper level ridging will allow for drier conditions today before another upper level trough enters the region on Friday. Wet, cooler, and unsettled conditions will continue through the weekend.
739 PM CDT Thu Sep 12 2024 - Rain chances with Tropical Depression "Francine" are likely (60-90%) along and east of the Highway 63 corridor from this afternoon through Friday.
740 PM EDT Thu Sep 12 2024 High pressure will support a stretch of dry and mostly sunny conditions through at least the upcoming weekend with temperatures trending above normal. Otherwise, clear to mostly clear tonight as deep subsidence associated with low level and upper level ridging in place. A very isolated shower cannot be ruled out in the southern Adirondacks, Lake George Saratoga Region to southern VT with the leftover weak low level boundary currently in northern areas and weak upper impulse in the northern periphery of the upper ridging but too low a probability to include in the forecast.
1029 PM EDT Thu Sep 12 2024 High pressure will support a stretch of dry and mostly sunny conditions through at least the upcoming weekend with temperatures trending above normal. Otherwise, clear to mostly clear tonight as deep subsidence associated with low level and upper level ridging in place. A very isolated shower cannot be ruled out in the southern Adirondacks, Lake George Saratoga Region to southern VT with the leftover weak low level boundary currently in northern areas and weak upper impulse in the northern periphery of the upper ridging but too low a probability to include in the forecast.
614 PM CDT Thu Sep 12 2024 (This evening through Friday) Current water vapor imagery this afternoon depicts the upper level trough barreling eastward through the northern portion of the Intermountain West. As these features begin to track east, so will the upper level ridge which will lead to warm and dry conditions across West Texas through the short term period. The warming trend then begins Friday as the upper level ridge moves in. With breezy southwest winds combined with increasing thickness value an clear skies we can expect much warmer temperatures than previous days in the upper 90s to lower 100s.
744 PM EDT Thu Sep 12 2024 High pressure will dominate the pattern for several more days, bringing above normal temperatures and plenty of sunshine. The amplifying upper trough that would provide some forcing for ascent will be far to the east such that enhanced moisture will stay well to the east of our region. Otherwise, this period really is just part of a stagnant weather pattern, with just a slight shift towards stronger ridging and warmer conditions. We continue to be directly under ridging at the sfc and aloft, resulting in plenty of dry wx and much above normal temps.
An uptick in dewpoints will lead to warmer lows in the low/mid 60s. 25 This afternoon, the center of low pressure from the remnants of Hurricane Francine are lifting north across Mississippi and is progged to stall near Memphis tonight and Friday. Over the weekend, the remnant upper low is progged to meander over the Tennessee Valley and weaken slightly. Models vary in the location of the upper low at any given time, but do show pin- wheeling vort lobes ejecting northward at times which will bring additional chances for scattered showers to portions of central Illinois.
(The rest of tonight) Thick mid and high cloud cover will remain across far eastern OK / NW AR overnight which will limit cooling while further west cloud cover thins and cooler overnight lows are likely. (Tomorrow through Thursday) Remnants of Francine will continue to linger around the southeastern states through the weekend with upper level ridging attempting to build in over the plains. Additional precip chances arrive by mid-late week as W CONUS troughing attempts to push into the region.
1034 PM EDT Thu Sep 12 2024 High pressure will dominate the pattern for several more days, bringing above normal temperatures and plenty of sunshine. The amplifying upper trough that would provide some forcing for ascent will be far to the east such that enhanced moisture will stay well to the east of our region. Otherwise, this period really is just part of a stagnant weather pattern, with just a slight shift towards stronger ridging and warmer conditions. We continue to be directly under ridging at the sfc and aloft, resulting in plenty of dry wx and much above normal temps.
857 PM CDT Thu Sep 12 2024 Post tropical cyclone Francine is centered near Memphis this evening.
633 PM CDT Thu Sep 12 2024 * Warm today, cooler tomorrow, then seasonable to seasonably warm thereafter. This has resulted in temperatures once again being on the warm, and bit more humid, side with early afternoon temperatures widely in the low to mid 80s already, even a site or two approaching 90. Current sizable PNW trough/cutoff low will continue to be deflected northeastward into Canada as a high over low/Rex Block continues to set up with upper ridge/high building into the Great Lakes and Francine lingering in the Lower Mississippi River Valley. With weak upper level flow the result, there is some uncertainty on some of the details should western trough and subsequent waves be stronger and/or more southerly in nature or Rex Block stronger than progged.
735 PM EDT Thu Sep 12 2024 High pressure will support a stretch of dry and mostly sunny conditions through at least the upcoming weekend with temperatures trending above normal. Otherwise, clear to mostly clear tonight as deep subsidence associated with low level and upper level ridging in place. A very isolated shower cannot be ruled out in the southern Adirondacks, Lake George Saratoga Region to southern VT with the leftover weak low level boundary currently in northern areas and weak upper impulse in the northern periphery of the upper ridging but too low a probability to include in the forecast.
Yet another very weak and moisture starved trough of low pressure will cross the region early today. In any case, H temperatures near +12C sunshine with mixing will allow for above normal temperatures for this time of the year with afternoon highs in the lower to mid 80s across the interior. a sea breeze will keep things cooler during the afternoon. Under light winds and mainly clear skies, high pressure will once again allow for large diurnal ranges with temperatures dropping into the upper 40s and 50s tonight.
Overall the larger scale synoptic pattern isn't entirely progressive, with a blocking high in the Great Lakes area keeping the tropical remnants spinning in the Mid-west over the next several days. Models trends have the remnants of post-tropical cyclone Francine continuing to produce bands of showers and thunderstorms today, tapering off towards this evening. Tonight, lows are expected to drop into the low to mid 60s for most, with some clearing.
1155 PM CDT Thu Sep 12 2024 (Tonight through Friday night) Warm and rain-free conditions will prevail across Deep South Texas through the short term period as the region remains under the influence of mid-level ridging. For the Lower Texas beaches, a Coastal Flood Statement will continue through this evening as conditions continue to gradually improve.
A ridge is also situated over the Great Lakes region. This setup places eastern KS in the ridging between the two areas of low pressure with high clouds from the Francine remnants holding steady over the eastern half of the area. This cloud cover should slowly push east throughout the day and eventually out of the area, although far eastern portions of the area may see it linger just long enough to keep temperatures slightly cooler this afternoon. Highs are forecast in the low 80s in those locations compared to the upper 80s to near 90 towards central KS.
Post-tropical cyclone "Francine" was located west of the Memphis TN early this morning. However, can't also rule out a few showers as 925-850 hPa moisture will be advected north-northwestward around the periphery of low-mid level ridging over the Great Lakes and Mid-Atlantic region. Winds just off the deck will get a boost with the pressure difference between the Great Lakes ridging and remnants of "Francine", and so with mixing we'll notice some easterly winds gusting 15-20+ mph at times too today before diminishing tonight.
1054 PM CDT Thu Sep 12 2024 * Warm today, cooler tomorrow, then seasonable to seasonably warm thereafter. This has resulted in temperatures once again being on the warm, and bit more humid, side with early afternoon temperatures widely in the low to mid 80s already, even a site or two approaching 90. Current sizable PNW trough/cutoff low will continue to be deflected northeastward into Canada as a high over low/Rex Block continues to set up with upper ridge/high building into the Great Lakes and Francine lingering in the Lower Mississippi River Valley. With weak upper level flow the result, there is some uncertainty on some of the details should western trough and subsequent waves be stronger and/or more southerly in nature or Rex Block stronger than progged.
204 AM MDT Fri Sep 13 2024 - Cooler and dry today behind yesterday's cold front. - Unsettled weather pattern for the workweek, with cooler temperatures and precipitation chances. Happy Friday the 13th! In the wake of yesterday's cold front, today is quite a bit cooler than it was a couple days ago. These highs are on the slightly cooler than normal side for mid-September. A few light rain and snow showers linger across northwest portions of the state this morning, but should be mostly gone by noon as the upper low tracks into Canada.
1142 PM CDT Thu Sep 12 2024 Post tropical cyclone Francine is centered near Memphis this evening.
240 AM EDT Fri Sep 13 2024 High pressure will dominate the pattern for several more days, bringing above normal temperatures and plenty of sunshine. The amplifying upper trough that would provide some forcing for ascent will be far to the east such that enhanced moisture will stay well to the east of our region. Otherwise, this period really is just part of a stagnant weather pattern, with just a slight shift towards stronger ridging and warmer conditions. We continue to be directly under ridging at the sfc and aloft, resulting in plenty of dry wx and much above normal temps.
High pressure located off the New England coast will remain in place through tonight. The positioning of the high continues to allow weak onshore flow to infiltrate into the region, reinforcing moisture into the low-levels.
339 AM EDT Fri Sep 13 2024 High pressure will remain the controlling weather feature across the North Country over the next 5 to 7 days.
Satellite imagery shows upper low moving slowly from northern MT into southwest SK.
1238 AM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024 (This evening through Friday) Current water vapor imagery this afternoon depicts the upper level trough barreling eastward through the northern portion of the Intermountain West. As these features begin to track east, so will the upper level ridge which will lead to warm and dry conditions across West Texas through the short term period. The warming trend then begins Friday as the upper level ridge moves in. With breezy southwest winds combined with increasing thickness value an clear skies we can expect much warmer temperatures than previous days in the upper 90s to lower 100s.
As a closed low lifts into Saskatchewan early this morning, wrap-around precipitation will continue, particularly focused in northwest Montana east of US 93. It will be warmer today with highs 10-15 degrees warmer than Thursday.
Aloft, bands up cirrostatus from post-tropical cyclone Francine have started advecting into SE'rn MN. To our west, a cold front over the central Dakota's features a line of showers and thunderstorms which continue to meander their way north-north eastward. Post-TC Francine and this cold frontal boundary will broadly encroach on one another by early tomorrow morning.
Tropical remnants continue to impact parts of the Lower and Middle Mississippi Valley area early this morning and any impacts are expected to remain east of our area.
For tomorrow it looks like the highest concentration of rain and storms should be along the Nature Coast with shower chances diminishing as we head south.
Overall the larger scale synoptic pattern isn't entirely progressive, with a blocking high in the Great Lakes area keeping the tropical remnants spinning in the Tennessee Valley over the next several days. Models trends have the remnants of post-tropical cyclone Francine continuing to produce bands of showers and thunderstorms today, tapering off towards this evening. Tonight, lows are expected to drop into the low to mid 60s for most, with some clearing.
245 AM MDT Fri Sep 13 2024 - Cooler temperatures several degrees below normal most areas can be expected today.
1222 AM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024 (The rest of tonight) Thick mid and high cloud cover will remain across far eastern OK / NW AR overnight which will limit cooling while further west cloud cover thins and cooler overnight lows are likely. (Tomorrow through Thursday) Remnants of Francine will continue to linger around the southeastern states through the weekend with upper level ridging attempting to build in over the plains. Additional precip chances arrive by mid-late week as W CONUS troughing attempts to push into the region.
416 AM EDT Fri Sep 13 2024 High pressure will continue to provide dry weather across the Ohio Valley. A large mid level ridge to remain centered over the Great Lakes. A blocking pattern to continue with a large mid and upper level ridge centered over the eastern Great Lakes. This ridge will keep the moisture from the remnants of Francine southwest of ILN/s area.
Unfortunately for the Keys a weak, ill-defined area of high pressure will continue to sit across the Florida Peninsula and the Florida Keys.
(Today and tonight) Mid/upper level ridging will reside over the southern Plains today, bringing dry weather and above normal temperatures to the area. A lee trough will develop today, with south winds prevailing. A low level thermal ridge will also strengthen today and contribute to the above normal temperatures across the area. This will result in warm temperatures overnight, with lows in the low to mid 70s.
1241 AM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024 - Rain chances with Tropical Depression "Francine" are likely (60-90%) along and east of the Highway 63 corridor from this afternoon through Friday.
Current indications are for precip potential to taper off and exit this evening while the remnants/area of low pressure sag back to the east and southeast. With Northwest Arkansas still on the west side of the low. decreasing cloud cover is forecast through the afternoon hours while northerly winds become more easterly as the remnants of Francine/area of low pressure depart the region. (Tonight through Thursday) Clearing skies should become common from west to east this evening and tonight behind the departing area of low pressure.
But, the highest coverage should remain over the Atlantic waters, thanks to westerly steering flow.
Starting to see another round of fog/stratus develop as the high off to the northeast continues to foster an onshore flow, reinforcing moisture in the low-levels. The one potential wrinkle is that winds within the low-levels look to be a touch stronger compared to last night, which could keep things mixed just enough to prevent the widespread development of dense fog. Upper-level ridge centered over the Great Lakes region Friday night meanders just bit to the southeast with time through the term. At the surface level, high pressure centered to our north/northeast Friday night will slide to the south with time.
A ridge is also situated over the Great Lakes region. This setup places eastern KS in the ridging between the two areas of low pressure with high clouds from the Francine remnants holding steady over the eastern half of the area. This cloud cover should slowly push east throughout the day and eventually out of the area, although far eastern portions of the area may see it linger just long enough to keep temperatures slightly cooler this afternoon. Highs are forecast in the low 80s in those locations compared to the upper 80s to near 90 towards central KS. Light east to southeasterly winds in the low levels look to advect enough moisture to bring in some low cloud cover overnight into Saturday morning, which should then scatter out into the afternoon.
Weak upper level ridge over the area will shift east later this morning.
611 AM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024 (Today through Saturday Night) Ridging over Texas should bring a period of benign weather into the early weekend. Rising 850mb temperatures and increasing thicknesses due to the ridge shifting eastward should usher in a slight warming trend over the next few days, with highs reaching the upper 80s to mid 90s.
Today: Anticyclonic flow aloft over the Great Lakes region this morning highlights the upper level high parked in place while post tropical cyclone Francine moves into southern MO. This combination forms a nice Rex Block with an upper level trough trying its best to force its way in from the west. Precipitation chances from the trough are very minimal (less than 15%).
Given the trajectory of this low level moisture, what little chances for showers exist will be confined to the far southwest and western cwa but chances for precipitation look meager, at best and have gone with a dry forecast through Saturday morning. Despite the high level cloud cover today, which may thin some this afternoon, temps may still reach the mid 80s for most locations, except near the lake with easterly winds and perhaps the south/southwest cwa where cloud cover may be thicker. Also unsure as to how much further temps will drop before sunrise, thus starting a bit warmer than expected. Highs on Saturday likely back into the upper 80s for most locations, cooler near the lake.
Current indications are for precip potential to taper off and exit this evening while the remnants/area of low pressure sag back to the east and southeast. With Northwest Arkansas still on the west side of the low. decreasing cloud cover is forecast through the afternoon hours while northerly winds become more easterly as the remnants of Francine/area of low pressure depart the region.
644 AM EDT Fri Sep 13 2024 High pressure will continue to provide dry weather across the Ohio Valley. A large mid level ridge to remain centered over the Great Lakes. A blocking pattern to continue with a large mid and upper level ridge centered over the eastern Great Lakes. This ridge will keep the moisture from the remnants of Francine southwest of ILN/s area. A persistent area of high pressure is forecast to keep dry weather across the ILN area through the period. A mid and upper level ridge over the Great Lakes will block the northern progress of the pcpn.
646 AM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024 Today through tonight: Overall, the near term forecast will be somewhat unsettled and humid, and a bit cooler than normal. Heading into the new work week, upper ridging will begin to build across the Southern Plains and will start to slowly make its way east towards the southeast CONUS.
623 AM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024 (Today and tonight) Mid/upper level ridging will reside over the southern Plains today, bringing dry weather and above normal temperatures to the area. A lee trough will develop today, with south winds prevailing. A low level thermal ridge will also strengthen today and contribute to the above normal temperatures across the area. This will result in warm temperatures overnight, with lows in the low to mid 70s.
The current wave is a closed low lifting into southern Saskatchewan with bands of showers. The proximity of the low will also bring winds back up to meet Lake Wind criteria. FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: There is high confidence in a warm up this weekend, and moderate confidence of cooler, wetter conditions by midweek.
High pressure located off the New England coast will remain in place through tonight. The positioning of the high continues to allow weak onshore flow to infiltrate into the region, reinforcing moisture into the low-levels. High pressure to the east will weaken, but a reinforcing weak cold front will allow another high will build southeastward from eastern Canada during the period. The easterly fetch should keep adding low-level moisture to the region, which when combined with the high nearby should promote late night and early morning patchy fog and low clouds, but there may be enough wind to keep widespread fog at bay.
533 AM MDT Fri Sep 13 2024 - Cooler temperatures several degrees below normal most areas can be expected today.
Meanwhile, stationary front stretches across the middle of the state while high pressure ridges south. At the same time, high pressure moves south allowing west to southwesterly flow sets up. Area of high pressure remains over south Florida while frontal boundary is stalled over north and central Florida. Therefore, the high risk of Rip Current statement remains in effect from Pinellas County southward through this evening. High pressure over the area along with stalled front and ample moisture should keep humidity values well above critical levels.
Meanwhile, stationary front stretches across the middle of the state while high pressure ridges south. At the same time, high pressure moves south allowing west to southwesterly flow sets up.
Today, thicknesses continue increasing under weak ridging aloft, resulting in continued unseasonably warm temperatures.
(Today through Saturday Night) The remnants of post-tropical cyclone Francine will weaken and slowly shift eastward, not moving very far through the weekend. Temperatures will remain below-average through the weekend, with high temperatures Friday in the lower to mid 70s across much of northern and eastern AR, and in the upper 70s to mid 80s elsewhere in the state, warming slightly by Saturday. Low temps will be in the lower to mid 60s through the weekend.
The focus of isolated to scattered convection will likely be in the vicinity of the Lower Keys initially owed to island cloud line thermodynamics, then shift to the Upper Keys thereafter, as convection may shoot off the Florida Mainland. Ponding on the typically favored roadways will peak at the times of the morning higher high tide in the Lower and Middle Keys, with little tidal cycle relief in the Upper Keys.