Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
326 AM EST Thu Nov 20 2025 High pressure will be pushed to the east today as a cold front approaches the northern Great Lakes.
- Warmer and drier over the weekend A stubborn stratus deck and saturated conditions continue to impact much of the forecast area today. As a result of this cloudier trend, have dropped high temperatures on Thursday, as less of the warm air aloft will be mixed down and weak cold air advection takes over in the low levels. High pressure filling in behind the Thursday wave will bring a shot of dry mid-level air, that will work to negate precipitation moving up into southern Iowa, so the balance between these two systems will be the key factor for our rainfall forecast on Friday. Therefore, expectation is still that the highest chances for rain in our area on Friday will be over southern Iowa, with greater uncertainty farther north.
Low pressure system on Thursday continues to track eastward way off to the north across Ontario and eventually the southern portion of Hudson Bay in Canada.
1256 AM EST Thu Nov 20 2025 Cooler temperatures are expected today as a cold front moves through the forecast area.
(Today through Friday) Upper level ridging extends from the Gulf into Canada, with South Florida remaining on the eastern periphery of this feature. At the surface, high pressure centered over the western Atlantic will continue to shift offshore. High temperatures today and tomorrow will reach the lower 80s along the coastline, with mid to upper 80s possible for portions of interior South Florida.
The worst part is that the temps are all very close to fzg, and road temps barely above freezing. They are cooling, and patches of black ice may become an issue on roads (mainly bridges & overpasses) and maybe even sidewalks. As noted the last few days, the fast northern jet will push a cold front across the area rather quickly on Friday, with limited shower activity.
Mild air was gradually spreading over a cooler layer above the ground. BUFKIT soundings show the lower layers drying out by late morning. Conditional climatology strongly favors the low clouds hanging on through the morning, so have the visibilities improving but the skies remaining cloudy to mostly cloudy. Temperatures are expected to stay above freezing the rest of the night.
Weak high pressure will remain in control of our local weather. Light winds in vicinity of the low level ridge axis and precip water values 1" or less will maintain warm and dry conditions. Max temperatures will remain above normal in the low 80s coast and low-mid 80s interior.
Vigorous upper low seen on water vapor imagery over southern AZ early this morning is progged to move northeast to the central high Plains by early Friday morning, then quickly shear out as it races eastward toward the mid-Mississippi Valley Friday into Friday night. Dry air advection in the wake of the weak cold front will likely hinder the northward progression of the rain shield Friday, keeping the best rain chances south of I-80.
- Sun/Mon system looks stronger with better chance of precip most areas - Getting colder (but mainly dry) towards Thanksgiving (lows in teens plains) Regional radar was showing quite a bit of precip over the greater SW United States early this AM as closed low over the Greater S Calif/NV region lift off to the east-northeast. As for snow, the heaviest overall amounts will fall over the higher elevations of the southern mtn region. Low temperatures tonight should only fall into the low/mid 30s along the greater I-25 corridor region with upper 30s over the far eastern plains.
913 AM EST Thu Nov 20 2025 High pressure remains in control through Friday.
This change in the forecast is due to a slightly farther north track of a weakening upper level low moving out of the southwestern CONUS at this time. The greatest impacts would be in the higher elevations of central and western mountain ranges where a coating to an inch of snow may be possible. Highs through the weekend range from the low to mid 40s west of the Divide and low to mid 50s east of the Divide. As for precipitation, after Friday high pressure tries to build in over the region, leading to mainly quiet and dry conditions through the weekend.
Expect gradually clearing behind a cold frontal passage by early afternoon.
The next low pressure system from the northwest will bring more widespread showers late this afternoon into Friday.
Overnight water vapor imagery depicts a closed low descending down toward southern California, with our forecast area being clipped by its northeastward flank. Light showers have circulated across western Oregon and into the east slopes of the Cascades as a result, however given this low's trajectory, moisture is relatively paltry overall, so precip impacts associated with this system are expected to be minimal. For the rest of Thursday, the PacNW will transition into a more ridge-like pattern through the weekend, making for a relatively dry forecast.
530 AM EST Thu Nov 20 2025 High pressure supports mostly dry into Friday morning.
* Temperatures will moderate to within a degree of seasonal normals over the weekend as a ridge of high pressure builds over the southeastern Pacific Ocean. Another closed low pressure system will push southeastward along the California Coast and into the Desert Southwest today and Friday, returning light-to-moderate rainfall and isolated thunderstorms to the valleys. Expect isolated instances of flash flooding beneath heavy rain and thunderstorms that develop, which will favor the higher terrain.
- Conditions trending cooler into Friday, however conditions remain above seasonal averages.
702 AM EST Thu Nov 20 2025 Cooler temperatures are expected today as a cold front moves through the forecast area.
The low pressure system bringing us all this moisture is currently centered across the western AZ border. A minor lull in activity is anticipated as Arizona will find itself sandwiched between the exiting trough from this week, and another closed low quickly diving down the California Coast.
645 AM EST Thu Nov 20 2025 High pressure will be pushed to the east today as a cold front approaches the northern Great Lakes.
627 AM EST Thu Nov 20 2025 High pressure remains in control through Friday.
The low level flow has turned southerly across much of Iowa. A trough of low pressure has reached far western Iowa and there is another area of stratus across South Dakota that is dropping southeast. Perhaps a bit warmer west central and southwest which could have some early sun pending the fog development and the moist layer does become quite then and perhaps breaks. High pressure will be moving into the area from the north with the drier air arriving into northern Iowa Friday morning but it will not reach central and southern Iowa until the afternoon.
820 AM EST Thu Nov 20 2025 High pressure will cross the region today through early Friday.
Cold front to push eastward today with high pressure building behind this front. Lingering clouds this morning are forecast to diminish as high pressure building through today, returning mainly clear to partly cloudy skies from west to east. Temperatures look to be slightly cooler today behind this front, although still near to slightly above normal with highs in the 40s. High pressure remains over the state tonight, bringing mainly clear skies and light winds. Northwest flow with flat ridging is then expected for this weekend.
636 AM EST Thu Nov 20 2025 High pressure will move off to the east, although clouds will be stubborn. Rain will spread back into the area late tonight and continue into Friday night as an area of low pressure moves through the region. High pressure will build in for the weekend. Short wave lifting into the central Plains tonight will then slide east in confluent flow between a northern stream low tracking across eastern Canada and broad southern stream ridging along the Gulf. Warm front out ahead of the low will lift into the area on Friday.
* Temperatures will moderate to within a degree of seasonal normals over the weekend as a ridge of high pressure builds over the southeastern Pacific Ocean.
Low-level warm air advection is overspreading the area as we are sandwiched between broad ridging over the Gulf and shallow troughing moving through Manitoba. Winds should eventually mix the lowest of layers out over the next couple of hours, but 12Z HREF sounding profiles suggest a moist inversion layer will likely persist through the day. Given the cloud cover and moisture throughout the day, will keep high temps on the lower side of guidance.
Updated at 1145 AM CST Thu Nov 20 2025 - Shower and storm chances increasing later this afternoon and evening along a cold front.
The lowered ceilings for KALW will likely persist into the early afternoon before incoming high pressure from the west allows for improvement across all sites. Overnight water vapor imagery depicts a closed low descending down toward southern California, with our forecast area being clipped by its northeastward flank. Light showers have circulated across western Oregon and into the east slopes of the Cascades as a result, however given this low's trajectory, moisture is relatively paltry overall, so precip impacts associated with this system are expected to be minimal. For the rest of Thursday, the PacNW will transition into a more ridge-like pattern through the weekend, making for a relatively dry forecast.
Eventually, drier air filters in as high pressure builds in from the west.
Knocking on our door to the west is the sfc cold front, where veered NW winds are currently reaching the western arm of Lake Superior.
- Cold front Friday will drop temperatures closer to seasonal normals this weekend. Rain will begin to push east tonight with some lingering showers and possibly a thunderstorm possible as the trough axis swings through. A cold front will follow the upper low moving from northwest to southeast through the day Friday.
Guidance is in pretty good agreement with showers gradually diminishing late this morning into this afternoon as the upper low moves south into northern California.
High pressure remains over the region over the next few days before a weak frontal boundary moves over the region this weekend.
- Additional snowfall ranges from 1-6 inches with the highest amounts in the mountains. A low pressure system is currently tracking over New Mexico, and will eventually end up over the High Plains tonight. The high terrain will be favored since the main forcing is passing to our south.
333 PM EST Thu Nov 20 2025 High pressure in place today into tomorrow helps keep mild temperatures going until a front moves through Friday night.
The result will be continued warmer-than-average temperatures (by as much as 15-17 degrees for highs and 22-24 degrees for lows).
228 PM EST Thu Nov 20 2025 - Showers possible near cold front tonight - Dry and mild through the weekend - Rain changing to snow mid week, colder - Showers possible near cold front tonight Local radar shows light echos indicative of drizzle/fog moving north across the cwa. A cold front will drop south across Lower MI after midnight and there may be enough convergence along the front to squeeze out a brief shower. Otherwise, RH progs suggest the low cloud deck will begin to thin around 12z from north to south. - Dry and mild through the weekend Ridging will build into the cwa Friday and keep any precipitation from the low pressure system moving across the Ohio Valley south of the cwa.
1229 PM EST Thu Nov 20 2025 High pressure supports mostly dry into Friday morning.
117 PM MST Thu Nov 20 2025 - Snowfall up to 4 inches for the mountains with the highest amounts in the Front Range Mountains through Friday.
115 PM EST Thu Nov 20 2025 High pressure will bring mainly clear skies and seasonably cool temperatures tonight.
Meanwhile, the main frontal band in OR last night was dissipating in OR but will stay active in Calif near a southward-moving upper low. Fog is lingering behind the precip band, and has been patchy in the lower Treasure Valley, LIFR is possible through early this afternoon.
No major changes were made to the previous forecast as everything looks on track with high pressure continuing to bring dry conditions to the region. (Today through Friday) Upper level ridging extends from the Gulf into Canada, with South Florida remaining on the eastern periphery of this feature. At the surface, high pressure centered over the western Atlantic will continue to shift offshore. High temperatures today and tomorrow will reach the lower 80s along the coastline, with mid to upper 80s possible for portions of interior South Florida.
For Central Texas, we're still monitoring the low/conditional threat for tornadoes in addition to hail and damaging winds late this afternoon and evening. Some of the high-res models continue to highlight a good curvature in the low-level hodographs. The strong mid/upper level trough responsible for this active weather will eject toward the southern High Plains tonight and tomorrow with a surface front/low spreading across the Southern Plains during the day.
Low-level dry air advection behind a weak cold front dropping in from the north late tonight should cause the stratus deck to become patchier and eventually scatter out in our northern counties sometime tomorrow, while the stratus status quo is preserved through the daytime hours in our southern counties.
Cold air will quickly be pulled east of the area with high pressure and offshore flow generating quick warming and drying Friday into the weekend.
The upper low will move south into California tonight with dry weather likely.
This will likely be one of the coolest nights we've had so far this season with overnight lows in the lower 40 nearly across the board, mid-to-upper 40s along the coast and upper 30s for interior high elevations.
The trough of low pressure that brought the recent precipitation is filling (weakening) and moving quickly to the east as the next trough in line deepens and dives southward along the California coast. Expect some areas of fog overnight, as well as some icy roads at the high elevations. As the trough deepening off the coast of California dives far to the south (west of Baja) on Friday, it will have little impact on northern Arizona.
Water vapor imagery reveals an elongated 500-hPa closed low stretching from the Pacific Northwest southeast to southern California. Within the broader trough, one vorticity maximum is present off the southern California coast, and a vorticity lobe is placed along the coast from Oregon to northern California.
420 PM MST Thu Nov 20 2025 - Snowfall up to 4 inches for the mountains with the highest amounts in the Front Range Mountains through Friday.
640 PM EST Thu Nov 20 2025 High pressure in place today into tomorrow helps keep mild temperatures going until a front moves through Friday night.
608 PM EST Thu Nov 20 2025 - Showers possible near cold front tonight - Dry and mild through the weekend - Rain changing to snow mid week, colder - Showers possible near cold front tonight Local radar shows light echos indicative of drizzle/fog moving north across the cwa. A cold front will drop south across Lower MI after midnight and there may be enough convergence along the front to squeeze out a brief shower. Otherwise, RH progs suggest the low cloud deck will begin to thin around 12z from north to south. - Dry and mild through the weekend Ridging will build into the cwa Friday and keep any precipitation from the low pressure system moving across the Ohio Valley south of the cwa.
Most areas will see some rainfall, but the focus will be south of I-80 with the highest totals anticipated across north central Kansas.
539 PM CST Thu Nov 20 2025 Updated at 536 PM CST Thu Nov 20 2025 - Shower and storm chances increasing later this afternoon and evening along a cold front.
613 PM EST Thu Nov 20 2025 High pressure will bring mainly clear skies and seasonably cool temperatures tonight.
112 AM EST Fri Nov 21 2025 High pressure weakens today as it shifts farther offshore.
1257 AM EST Fri Nov 21 2025 Dry high pressure is expected to prevail across the area through the rest of the week.
Updated at 1231 AM PST Fri Nov 21 2025 - Drier conditions beginning today through midweek - Temperatures remain near or slightly above seasonal averages - Next chance for rain arrives the day after Thanksgiving (Today and tonight) Radar returns continue to show isolated showers lingering across interior San Benito County as an upper level low exits to our south. High temperatures today reach the upper 50s to middle 60s in the lower elevations, barring the North Bay valleys where highs reach the upper 60s, while the higher elevations drop into the lower to middle 50s.
Further upstream, a closed upper low is located across central CA with active northwest flow across the Pacific NW.
* Cooler than normal temperatures will persist through tomorrow, with a warming and drying trend beginning as high pressure builds in this weekend. The brief break in precipitation for much of the region will end tonight as a broad low pressure system moves into south central California and western Arizona this evening. Scattered showers will continue into the afternoon on Friday, gradually tapering off as the low center moves into northern Mexico. The highest accumulations look to be above 8500 feet with summits seeing up to 12 inches of snow by tomorrow morning. Temperatures will continue to be slightly below normal today and tomorrow, with a warming and drying trend returning as high pressure builds northwest flow into the region over the weekend.
The low pressure system bringing said showers will continue to drop south early this morning, which will help taper any lingering showers that make it past daybreak. Coinciding with mornings past, there's a chance for patchy (freezing) fog across Sierra and W NV valleys again this morning. This will bring visibility reductions and slick roads, especially over bridges.
102 AM EST Fri Nov 21 2025 High pressure in place today into tomorrow helps keep mild temperatures going until a front moves through Friday night.
As light rain showers dwindle away across the NW wind belts, mainly the east, early this morning, a cold front dropping down from northern Ontario through Lake Superior later today will bring isolated to scattered light rain/non-accumulating snow showers back across the NW wind belts again (mainly the east). Given the dry air in within the boundary layer, not much liquid is expected, just a couple of hundreths really over the east unless a more persistent band develops (some CAMs have this occurring, but mainly near the Munising area and by Whitefish Point tonight); even then, only a tenth or two of liquid is really expected in this 'highest amounts scenario' given the marginal delta-Ts and high pressure ridging building in from the Northern Plains this weekend.
Southern to central plains low pressure system still on track to roll eastward along southern periphery of upper MS RVR Valley ridge and baroclinicity, making for a isentropic lift rain event acrs the southern third or more of the DVN CWA today into this evening, before the system pulls off to the east and the high off to the north seeps this way. with the higher amounts acrs the southern row of the CWA counties. Southward dropping high pressure behind the departing low will scour things out as the late afternoon and evening progress. The clear out with sfc wind decrease and drier DPT feed in northerly fetch will foster a much cooler night tonight, with lows in the 20s to lower 30s acrs most of the area.
Temperatures during the day will be heavily stunted by the rain and saturated profile, likely only warming to the low to mid 40s. Overnight tonight, temperatures are forecast to drop below freezing for most of the CWA. Elevated surfaces that remain moist from the rainfall will likely freeze overnight, leading to slick bridges, railings, and raised ramps. However, on the 15% chance fog does occur, it will likely be freezing fog, adding to the slick surfaces.
331 AM EST Fri Nov 21 2025 High pressure weakens today as it shifts farther offshore.
Satellite imagery depicts the upper level low essentially placed over southern CA this evening, with mid to upper level clouds being observed over the central and southern half of northern CA. Cooler temperatures are on tap for tonight, bottoming out in the low to mid 40s for much of the region perhaps a few degrees cooler for localized spots in the North Bay. This will likely be one of the coolest nights we've had so far this season with overnight lows in the lower 40 nearly across the board, mid-to-upper 40s along the coast and upper 30s for interior high elevations.
- Cold front Friday will drop temperatures closer to seasonal normals this weekend. A cold front is dragged through the forecast area today as the mid- upper level wave begins to depart.
1130 PM EST Thu Nov 20 2025 - Showers possible near cold front tonight - Dry and mild through the weekend - Rain changing to snow mid week, colder - Showers possible near cold front tonight Local radar shows light echos indicative of drizzle/fog moving north across the cwa. A cold front will drop south across Lower MI after midnight and there may be enough convergence along the front to squeeze out a brief shower. Otherwise, RH progs suggest the low cloud deck will begin to thin around 12z from north to south. - Dry and mild through the weekend Ridging will build into the cwa Friday and keep any precipitation from the low pressure system moving across the Ohio Valley south of the cwa.
A weak trough passing near Lake Erie may produce a brief period of light rain or drizzle north of Pittsburgh near dawn. A more persistent rain is expected later tonight as a low pressure system approaches from the southwest. However, precipitation chances quickly diminish from west to east between 4am and 6am as a cold front sweeps across Lake Erie. Increasing subsidence in the low and mid levels associated with building high pressure should thin cloud cover by Saturday afternoon.
The upper low has moved to the south, with high pressure building in overhead. Friday through Saturday is likely to be dry as upper ridging remains overhead and the cutoff low moves towards southern California. The upper flow will likely remain westerly with the ridge remaining over the area Saturday.
Two lows of interest are visible in water vapor imagery tonight with the departing low sliding into the Great Plains, and an incoming closed low turning southeastwards across SoCal.
High temperatures today and tomorrow will reach the lower 80s along the coastline, with mid to upper 80s possible for portions of interior South Florida.
Quiet weather is expected to prevail heading into the weekend as a high pressure ridge settles over the PacNW. With high pressure in place, these low clouds will struggle to lift as well, so many of our low-lying areas may see overcast conditions persist well into the day once they form.
* As a ridge of high pressure builds over the southeastern Pacific, expect warming temperatures, dry conditions, and breezy afternoons through Thanksgiving Day. A closed area of low pressure will continue to meander counter- clockwise around the southern edge of our forecast area today and Saturday. Scattered light-to-moderate showers will continue across our southern zones through Saturday morning as a result, including San Bernardino County, the lower Colorado River Valley, and southern Mohave County, with greatest amounts in the higher terrain. Shower activity will wane through the day on Saturday as the center of the low pushes eastward into central Arizona. A ridge of high pressure will nose into the Desert Southwest from the southeastern Pacific Ocean over the weekend, allowing afternoon high temperatures to moderate back toward seasonal normals.
637 AM EST Fri Nov 21 2025 Rain will spread across the area, mainly this afternoon, ahead of a weak low pressure system.
- Cold front Friday will drop temperatures closer to seasonal normals this weekend.
Ridging looks to build in over the region for the weekend. Highs will range in the low to mid 40s west of the Divide and low to mid 50s east of the Divide.