Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
- Uncertainty of strong to severe storms remains as the high shear relatively low CAPE environment adds uncertainty ranging from several severe storms possible to none. A stout high to the east and a digging trough to the west is creating compressing the pressure gradient across the central CONUS. A Wind Advisory remains in effect through 7 AM Wednesday; however, observations will tell if the lower level jet is able to decouple during the overnight which may curtail gusts until sunrise where gusts accelerate again around 30-40 MPH ahead of the arrival of a cold front. The cold front associated with this western trough pushes more aggressively eastward tomorrow. Cooler conditions come behind the front for Halloween night.
Much cooler weather is expected Tuesday, with gusty southwest winds continuing, but the maximum winds will shift east during the day. Drier and a bit warmer for the rest of the week, with much less wind. A low pressure system was centered over the western states this morning, heading eastward. But on Wednesday the trough moves eastward with a dry and cool northwest flow setting up over the state.
(This evening through Wednesday Night) A strong warm air advection regime continues to dominate the region in anticipation of pending changes to the forecast via a cold front and increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms. This change will begin to manifest as a deep upper-level trough continues its eastward progression into the Rockies this evening and overnight, while lee cyclogenesis occurs across western KS. As a result, expect breezy S/SW winds to persist overnight into Wednesday as the pressure gradient remains quite strong between the Plains low and dominant high pressure across the SE CONUS.
144 PM EDT Tue Oct 29 2024 (Today and tonight) Our area remains entrenched in easterly to northeasterly flow on the southern side of high pressure. A plume of higher moisture will move in from the east later today, which may be enough for a shower or two to pop up this afternoon near the lower Suwannee Valley. Highs will be in the lower to middle 80s with mainly sunny skies. Another round of patchy fog will be possible near the I-75 corridor tonight, but otherwise a quiet night is in store with lows in the lower to middle 60s.
1218 PM CDT Tue Oct 29 2024 (Today through Wednesday) High pressure remains over the Mid-Atlantic, resulting in east- southeasterly flow across the area.
Current forecast looks good for the rest of the afternoon with highs reaching into the lower to middle 80s. WAA and moisture return continues today ahead of the cold front tomorrow night, bringing record warm highs and lows. Highs will be in the low to mid 80s both days. (see climate section below) As the cold front passes through the area tomorrow night, showers and thunderstorms are expected (90-100% chance).
A mid/upper ridge axis extends from Texas to the Great Lakes, while a deep layer trough is digging southward over the West Coast states. The trough and ridge will migrate eastward, placing the bulk of the ridging over E CONUS and the trough axis over the Rockies by this afternoon. PVA from the trough and lee side vorticity stretching over the plains is inducing LL cyclogenesis over the Central Plains. Inland highs are expected to be in the mid/upper 80s (low 80s at the coast), then falling into the low 70s overnight (mid 70s near the coast and within Houston's urban heat island). Highs on Wednesday are expected to be in the low/mid 80s.
An upper level ridge moves through Idaho Wednesday and expect mainly clear skies with no precipitation. The next upper level trof will move east and will start to say rain and snow spread into the central mountains and Magic Valley well after midnight Wednesday night.
204 PM EDT Tue Oct 29 2024 High pressure builds in the next several days, with coastal troughing offshore.
After a dry, breezy, and mild day on Wednesday, Pacific weather systems then bring more periods of mostly light mountain snow and slightly cooler temperatures to close out the week. A cold frontal passage along with some lingering upper-level energy will produce some light precipitation mainly across the mountains along the Continental Divide and Southwest MT through the evening today.
249 PM EDT Tue Oct 29 2024 A strong upper ridge remains over our region through late week providing above normal temperatures with continued dry weather.
After a dry, breezy, and mild day on Wednesday, Pacific weather systems then bring more periods of mostly light mountain snow and slightly cooler temperatures to close out the week. A cold frontal passage along with some lingering upper-level energy will produce some light precipitation mainly across the mountains along the Continental Dativide and Southwest MT through the evening today.
227 PM EDT Tue Oct 29 2024 Upper ridge will bring a warming trend and dry conditions back to the area for much of the rest of this week. Onshore flow has kept the low clouds around a bit longer into the afternoon today which as a result will keep temperatures a bit lower as highs struggle to get out of the 60s, especially in the northwestern portion of the forecast.
Afternoon temperatures are forecast to reach the low to mid 80s. This is courtesy of a tightening gradient between high pressure over the Northeast U.
Upper level low pressure will develop to the southwest of the area tonight, increasing southerly flow aloft. This will enhance the low to mid level boundary with strong baroclinicity from about 925mb to 850mb west of I-29. Given the seasonally high freezing level around 10500 ft AGL and only weak CAPE values if a storm could develop even larger hail would be enough to come by. This system will exit Wednesday night and drag cooler air into the area.
142 PM MDT Tue Oct 29 2024 KEY MESSAGES: - Late-Week Weather System: A cold front is expected later this week, bringing snow to higher elevations and mountain passes. Weather Overview: Showers continue as a trough exits the region. A ridge of high pressure will bring temperatures near normal, but cloud cover will increase in the evening as the next weather system approaches.
1128 AM CDT Tue Oct 29 2024 (Today through Wednesday) A large mid-level trough will continue to dig over Four Corners region then swing eastward into the Plains through the period. At the surface, low pressure develops across the Plains will allow the pressure gradient to strengthen along the Lower Texas Coast through the period.
305 PM EDT Tue Oct 29 2024 (This afternoon through Wednesday) A cold air damming "wedge" is evident on surface analysis, given easterly flow and high pressure denoted along and east of the Appalachians. The wedge will remain in place tomorrow (Wednesday) with continued easterly flow and dry conditions under high pressure. High temperatures are forecasted to be a few degrees warmer than those today -- in the upper 70s to mid-80s (outside of the mountains).
Upper high and ridging will remain across the southern Atlantic coast.
106 PM MDT Tue Oct 29 2024 Key Messages: Late-Week Weather System: A cold front is expected later this week, bringing snow to higher elevations and mountain passes. Weather Overview: Showers continue as a trough exits the region. A ridge of high pressure will bring temperatures near normal, but cloud cover will increase in the evening as the next weather system approaches.
253 PM EDT Tue Oct 29 2024 An unseasonably strong upper level ridge will build from the Southeastern U.
(Tonight) Unseasonably warm and windy conditions are expected to continue tonight in advance of the cold front that is slated to move through the region Wednesday night. The initial storms in northeast Oklahoma are likely to be discrete and in advance of the cold front.
The KBYX radar is detecting shower activity to our south, and some showers have skirted close to the Lower Keys. The aforementioned high pressure is also causing strong winds across the forecast area, and these aren't expected to diminish until later this week. Other than the gloomy weather, conditions feel more like Fall outside as temperatures are currently in the lower 80s with dew points in the lower to mid 70s. From synopsis, a strong dome of high pressure will move into the North Atlantic from the northeastern United States this morning and continue equatorward during the week.
A departing upper level trough today will leave partly cloudy skies and breezy winds in its wake. Temperatures today will average around 5 degrees below normal, with lower valley highs in the lower to middle 50s. Low temperatures at nearly all locations are expected (60-100% chance) to be below freezing, with lows mainly in the middle to upper 20s across the Treasure and Magic valleys. While a few locations have not yet dipped below freezing this fall, no freeze products are planned as we are out of the typical growing season.
323 PM EDT Tue Oct 29 2024 An unseasonably strong upper level ridge will build from the Southeastern U.
(Rest of today through Wednesday) Breezy but generally benign weather will continue across South Florida through the middle of the week as extensive high pressure builds over the Southeast US. These conditions will be driven by relatively dry air in the mid-levels as ridging builds over the Eastern US, pushing out a weak trough over the Florida Peninsula. Temperatures will be around normal for this time of year, with highs in the mid 80s, and overnight lows ranging from the low 70s over the interior and Gulf Coast, to the mid to upper 70s over the East Coast.
239 PM EDT Tue Oct 29 2024 Showers will skim through the Twin Tiers to especially Central New York as a warm front passes this afternoon to early evening.
(Tonight) A ridge will continue to slide eastward across the southeast today, as pesky morning low-level cloud cover in spots is giving way to mostly clear skies this afternoon. Afternoon highs will be in the low 80s across the western counties, while the hilly terrain east of Huntsville will see highs in the upper 70s to around 80.
1211 PM CDT Tue Oct 29 2024 (Today through Wednesday) Key Messages: - Small Craft Advisory for the bays and Gulf waters through Wednesday morning A deep trough will continue to progress eastwards during the day today as the mid level ridge that was influencing the area over the past few days transitions eastwards out of the area. The approaching trough is expected to tighten the pressure gradient over the region increasing winds to around 20-25 knots especially over the bays and nearshore waters.
236 PM MDT Tue Oct 29 2024 KEY MESSAGES: 1) Near normal temperatures with lows routinely below freezing are expected through the end of the week. WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: An upper trough will continue to push east into the Midwestern U. with a split flow in the west around a closed low approaching the Pacific Northwest. Ensembles eventually show a deepening trough late in the week over the western CONUS leading to southwest upper flow over eastern Montana, which could finally lead to some precipitation chances toward the weekend.
1229 PM CDT Tue Oct 29 2024 An upper level ridge centered over the Southeast U.
pdf High pressure ridge will move offshore of the Carolinas through Tonight. An inverted trough will move inland from the coastal waters this afternoon and evening bringing shower chances. These chances will decrease through the night, as ridging builds back across area from northeast. Lows Tonight will range from the mid 60s inland to the lower 70s at the coast.
143 PM PDT Tue Oct 29 2024 Cooler temperatures this week, with breezy north winds today.
Aloft, upper ridging continues over the area today, but shifts just slightly to the east on Wednesday. Guidance continues to indicate that PWATs may drop to below 1 inch across much of the area today in association with the cooler airmass ridging in from the northeast, but increase once again to around 1.
- Sub-freezing temperatures are expected tonight and tomorrow night, which will be the coldest we have seen this season.
Most recent upper air models and Water Vapor shows upper trough axis just west of the four corners region this afternoon, with southwest flow over the forecast area. Surface models show low pressure associated with the trough situated over the WY/CO border. HREF probabilities for 6" or more sit at 90-100% over much of northeastern WY and the northern/central Black Hills, while probability of 12" or more are 30-50% over the highest elevation areas of the Black Hills. Elsewhere across the western SD plains, precipitation should mostly stay as rain, with models a bit warmer in these areas. However, precipitation could mix or change over to light snow for a period late tonight and Wednesday morning, especially over the higher terrain and parts of northwest SD, as the upper trough moves over the area.
Highs Wednesday remain cold, generally in the middle 30s to low 40s (average highs are in the low to middle 50s).
Discussion: Overall pattern remains the same with upper and surface ridging. Broad upper ridging will keep temperatures unseasonably warm with temperatures around 10 degrees above normal.
140 PM PDT Tue Oct 29 2024 Two areas of low pressure across the West will keep our region cooler this week.
SREF plumes, which do tend to run hot in terms of QPF show a clustering towards the higher QPF for most points across the Green River, Wind River, and Powder River Basins. Where the previous forecast indicated temperatures would remain above freezing (in the middle 30s) for most locations at least through mid afternoon, forecasts have shifted colder, with temperatures at or even below freezing and holding steady late this morning. As they rotate into WY, localized whiteout conditions and As the low rotates through and moves east, the location of these bands will as well. The low center will gradually slide across eastern WY through the afternoon with clearing from west to east.
Synoptic analysis places an anomalously strong upper-level ridge over the entire eastern third of the CONUS. Meanwhile at the surface, a 1035 mb dome of high pressure is now centered just off New England. This high is supporting fresh to strong northeast to east surface breezes across the Florida Keys and the adjacent nearshore and offshore coastal waters.
(Now through Wednesday) An upper level ridge of high pressure extending over much of the Deep South this afternoon will gradually shift eastward toward the Eastern Seaboard through Wednesday afternoon. Highs on Wednesday are forecast to range in the lower to mid 80s.
/44/ (This evening through Wednesday Night) A strong warm air advection regime continues to dominate the region in anticipation of pending changes to the forecast via a cold front and increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms. This change will begin to manifest as a deep upper-level trough continues its eastward progression into the Rockies this evening and overnight, while lee cyclogenesis occurs across western KS. As a result, expect breezy S/SW winds to persist overnight into Wednesday as the pressure gradient remains quite strong between the Plains low and dominant high pressure across the SE CONUS.
Winds remain breezy with gusty periods and are expected to continue tonight and trough Wednesday. Morning lows will again drop into the low 70s over the interior and Gulf Coast, and into the mid to upper 70s across east coast locations. (Rest of today through Wednesday) Breezy but generally benign weather will continue across South Florida through the middle of the week as extensive high pressure builds over the Southeast US. These conditions will be driven by relatively dry air in the mid-levels as ridging builds over the Eastern US, pushing out a weak trough over the Florida Peninsula. Temperatures will be around normal for this time of year, with highs in the mid 80s, and overnight lows ranging from the low 70s over the interior and Gulf Coast, to the mid to upper 70s over the East Coast.
Temperatures won't fall too much farther along the coast, holding in the low to mid 70s, due to the persistent wind off the Atlc. An area of high pressure located just north of the Florida peninsula across the eastern U. Windy easterly flow will also persist as a result of the high, with winds 15 to 25 knots and gusts up to 30 knots possible.
633 PM CDT Tue Oct 29 2024 (Tonight) A ridge will continue to slide eastward across the southeast today, as pesky morning low-level cloud cover in spots is giving way to mostly clear skies this afternoon. Afternoon highs will be in the low 80s across the western counties, while the hilly terrain east of Huntsville will see highs in the upper 70s to around 80.
(Rest of tonight) High pressure over the Mid-Atlantic region has edged slightly westward so far this evening. Several models advect abundant moisture between 925 mb and 850 mb into the area around the southern portion of this area of high pressure.
Drier and a bit warmer for the rest of the week with much less wind.
(This afternoon through Wednesday) A cold air damming "wedge" is evident on surface analysis, given easterly flow and high pressure denoted along and east of the Appalachians. The wedge will remain in place tomorrow (Wednesday) with continued easterly flow and dry conditions under high pressure. High temperatures are forecasted to be a few degrees warmer than those today -- in the upper 70s to mid-80s (outside of the mountains).
642 PM CDT Tue Oct 29 2024 (Tonight) Unseasonably warm and windy conditions are expected to continue tonight in advance of the cold front that is slated to move through the region Wednesday night. The initial storms in northeast Oklahoma are likely to be discrete and in advance of the cold front.
Bowlan (Tonight) Unseasonably warm and windy conditions are expected to continue tonight in advance of the cold front that is slated to move through the region Wednesday night. The initial storms in northeast Oklahoma are likely to be discrete and in advance of the cold front.
TFJ KEY MESSAGES: 1) Near normal temperatures with lows routinely below freezing are expected through the end of the week. WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: An upper trough will continue to push east into the Midwestern U. with a split flow in the west around a closed low approaching the Pacific Northwest. Ensembles eventually show a deepening trough late in the week over the western CONUS leading to southwest upper flow over eastern Montana, which could finally lead to some precipitation chances toward the weekend.
514 PM EDT Tue Oct 29 2024 An unseasonably strong upper level ridge will build from the Southeastern U.
608 PM EDT Tue Oct 29 2024 A strong upper ridge remains over our region through late week providing above normal temperatures with continued dry weather.
Cold temperatures tonight, then warmer and dry weather tomorrow.
While relatively strong, northerly mid-level flow persists in the wake of a Low, the gusty surface winds are tapering as the low-level nighttime inversion develops. The scattered low clouds will also erode overnight for most areas, except are likely to linger over the central Idaho terrain near the center of the Low. Seasonable temperatures will prevail Wednesday, with breezy south and southeast winds developing in the afternoon ahead of the next cold front.
1044 PM EDT Tue Oct 29 2024 Upper ridge will bring a warming trend and dry conditions back to the area for much of the rest of this week.
After midnight, those showers and clouds should rapidly dissipate as the trough axis moves east across southern Utah/northern Arizona.
652 PM EDT Tue Oct 29 2024 Upper ridge will bring a warming trend and dry conditions back to the area for much of the rest of this week.
1013 PM EDT Tue Oct 29 2024 A strong upper ridge remains over our region through late week providing above normal temperatures with continued dry weather.
It looks as if the lowest inversion has weakended and is allowing some of the 1kft winds to make it to the sfc causing too much mixing. A cold front will move through the central plains and come to an abrupt stall near the Texarkana region late Thu. This will be close enough for our area to at least see the prefrontal trough induce some sh/ts well ahead of the actual sfc front with moisture loading helping this process. There will be some showers maybe a storm elsewhere, this is just the area with the highest prob of getting measured rainfall.
Gusty winds across the higher terrain this morning and Wednesday night. This makes sense given low pressure will deepen as it moves eastward, while the center of high pressure moves closer to our area. Highly amplified ridging over us and deep troughing to our west, is what the short term features, as well as strong high pressure centered just off of the mid-Atlantic. A low pressure center will develop over the High Plains today, moving towards the western Great Lakes as a sharp line of precipitation trails it to the south. The high there today will be around 78.
However, will blend in some slightly cooler numbers in for today since the cloud cover will likely inhibit good heating for a good portion of the morning.
(Today through Thursday afternoon) WV imagery shows the upper trough swinging through Utah and Arizona this morning, and it should be invof the Four Corners by 12Z. Fortunately, this doesn't coincide w/max diurnal mixing, but winds should still remain in high wind territory through 00Z, when the trough clears the area and begins ejecting into the upper Midwest. Unfortunately, the trough will drag a Pac front into the area, cooling the northwest CWA by up to 10 F or so. Tonight, a cold front settles in behind the Pac front, ushering in very dry air and dropping overnight lows to only 5 F above normal on average.
and maybe even cooler than in previous days. The cooler conditions will be due to the increased cloud cover. a cold front to the NW of AR will push SE into the state.
1123 PM EDT Tue Oct 29 2024 High pressure will provide dry and warm weather into early Thursday. Showers return late Thursday and Thursday night with a crossing cold front.
Expect overnight lows generally in the low to mid 60s with daytime highs generally in the mid 80s.
336 AM EDT Wed Oct 30 2024 High pressure will continue to move further south and east offshore through Thursday.
Temperatures are topping out in the mid to upper 80s across the state this afternoon, about 10-15 degrees warmer than average. An upper SWT will pivot northeastward across the central Plains to the Midwest region Wednesday evening through Wednesday night, as a cold front approaches from the west, entering western AR early Thursday and exiting to the southeast late Thursday. Widespread rain totals through Thursday night range from three- quarters to over an inch of rain (the higher end expected across western portions of the state).
Despite the dry air aloft, dew points remained in the lower 70s and briefly rose to mid 70s in the late evening.
Temperatures will warm up into the lower to mid 80s area-wide, with lows dropping into the 60s inland and lower 70s near the coast.
- Showers and Storms Wednesday Night and Thursday Forecast remains fairly consistent as far as a cold frontal band moving through with a large upper level low bringing in a deepening trough Thursday. Some narrow CAPE could strengthen any storms along this front Thursday which has caused SPC to issue an marginal risk for Thursday with the focus being the cold front. Overall the region should be in the dry slot post frontal so it will be cooler with some gusty northwesterly winds. The cold front will bring temperatures back to normal with highs into the 50s through the weekend.
(Today and Tonight) Moisture will continue to feed into the region today ahead of an advancing mid level trough and associated cold front. The highest tornado threat is expected across N-Central Oklahoma, primarily in areas west of Hwy 75 and north of I-44. increasing moisture, cooler afternoon temperatures (highs in the upper 70s/ near 80), and increasing cloud cover should help to keep overall fire weather concerns low.
Bowlan (Tonight) Unseasonably warm and windy conditions are expected to continue tonight in advance of the cold front that is slated to move through the region Wednesday night.