Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
With drier air mixing down into the low- levels from the north, this should limit fog coverage to being confined to low-lying, sheltered areas & river valleys. Highest wind speeds look to be under 10kts and generally northerly, although the direction may be variant with light winds and a ridge that extends from the surface through to 300mb that is slowly building throughout the period. Lows in the mid 60s and highs are expected to be the high 80s. Ridging will continue to entrench itself across the Lower Mississippi River Valley and as the cut-off low over the Carolinas (the remnants from an unnamed tropical system that moved through earlier this week) begins to fill and push eastward; we will see a shifting of the ridge axis to a more positive tilt.
Not anticipatingany severe development as the low level jet keeps these storms alive. The frontal boundary associated with the low pressure system out west is currently in central ND and slowly working its way eastward. Otherwise, the main low pressure is still out in western ND as indicated on satellite, with a boundary approaching the Devils Lake Basin.
As the day progresses, morning convection will wane and strong heating will lead to temperatures soaring into the low to mid 90s, especially in our southern and southwestern zones where less cloud cover is expected from the morning convection. There is still decent curvature in the low-level hodographs and a lengthy upper-level tail due to the increasing northwest flow. Also can't rule out a tornado given the possibility for some supercells and the low-level helicity noted by the curved hodographs.
The frontal boundary associated with the low pressure system out west is currently in central ND and slowly working its way eastward. Otherwise, the main low pressure is still out in western ND as indicated on satellite, with a boundary approaching the Devils Lake Basin.
Flow in the surface to 500 mb layer over Alabama will have weak cyclonic curvature as a trough slowly shifts eastward across the eastern CONUS. Most locations will see afternoon highs in the upper 80s to the lower 90s. A 500 mb ridge over Texas will become more prominent on Friday as it amplifies and shifts eastward. Deep-layer flow will become more anticyclonic over our area, leading to subsidence, a reduction in PWAT values, and temperatures reaching the lower 90s across most of the forecast area.
Highs are forecast to range from the lower to upper 90s. Upper level ridging dominates the local area and therefore dry weather conditions for the most part. However, a mid level low pressure system lingering across the Rio Grande in combination with daytime heating and pwats around 2 inches could result in very isolated shower/storm activity across the Coastal Plains and along the I-35 corridor late afternoon and early evening. Overnight lows are forecast to range from the lower to upper 70s. Friday's highs are forecast to range from the lower 90s across the Hill Country to near 100 across the Austin metro area.
1005 PM PDT Wed Sep 18 2024 High pressure returns, bringing dry weather with near to slightly below normal temperatures through the end of the week.
An upper level ridge remains overhead and this will keep rain chances down with the Davis Mountains seeing a shower or two develop and decay during the afternoon. Friday is similar to today, but temperatures end up a degree or two cooler as the upper level ridge shifts to the east slightly. An upper low begins to impinge on the ridge and rain chances tick upwards across the western fringes of the CWA.
1222 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024 (Tonight through Thursday night) Persistence will be the main driver of the short term forecast as a mid-level high builds over TX with an area of low pressure along the east coast and another low near the CA coast. Tomorrow heat indices will range 105-110 with the Coastal Bend/Coastal Plains expected to be on the higher end.
- Showers and thunderstorms will develop over much, or all, of the Tri-State area this weekend as a potent upper level low tracks eastward across the Rockies and Central Plains.
Unsettled weather today and Friday with light rain and isolated thunderstorms in reponse to an upper cut-off low influencing the region.
Satellite imagery shows slow-moving upper low moving to the northeast over southeast SK. We continue to see showers wrap southward on the back side of the low and into southeast MT. As the low departs and we see pressure falls to our west, winds will decrease over our west this afternoon, and the east in the early evening. A low risk (10-20%) of showers is expected by late afternoon as a cold front arrives and shifts winds to the north. We should see temps climb to the low-mid 70s today, and after a chillier night with much less wind tonight, mid 70s to around 80F on Friday.
244 AM EDT Thu Sep 19 2024 High pressure is expected to continue to dominate the region through the rest of the week and into the weekend with mainly dry and mild weather conditions. More clearing tonight with high pressure overhead and areas of valley fog will develop once again. Friday will be similar to today with high pressure still in control and temperatures again in the upper 70s to low 80s.
Today will be a seasonably warm September day as upper ridging begins to build into the area. Highs on Friday will be another two or three degrees warmer than today.
252 AM EDT Thu Sep 19 2024 High pressure is expected to continue to dominate the region through the rest of the week and into the weekend with mainly dry and mild weather conditions. More clearing tonight with high pressure overhead and areas of valley fog will develop once again. Friday will be similar to today with high pressure still in control and temperatures again in the upper 70s to low 80s. High pressure remains in place through the weekend.
(Thursday night through Friday night) High pressure builds in from the west, which will usher in drier air to the region. High temperatures for Friday will be in the upper 89s across SW GA, while SE AL warms into the lower 90s which is about couple of degrees above normal for this time of year.
(Today and tonight) A positively tilted upper level low currently situated offshore in the vicinity of Big Sur will continue to track south along the California coastline toward Los Angeles today and eventually begin to move inland over San Diego by tomorrow afternoon and evening. Highs today will generally be 5-10 degrees below normal, and slightly warmer tomorrow.
This development is due to enhanced southwest flow as ridging across central Mexico combines with the digging longwave trough currently centered over the southern California coast.
Lows will drop into the lower 40s to the lower 50s. A low amplitude ridge axis will cross the state on Friday, which should help to briefly bump up temperatures. NBM highs are forecast to range from the lower 70s to the lower 80s.
Any storms that develop along the weak cold front in NW Oklahoma this afternoon and evening should remain well north of the Red River. 12 Previous Discussion: /Through Friday Afternoon/ A strong mid/upper-level ridge, currently extending from northern Mexico into the Middle Mississippi Valley, will persist through the end of the week even as a southern stream upper low prepares to eject toward the Plains. At the surface, ridging to the east and southeast will maintain the prevailing onshore low-level flow yielding unseasonably hot and precipitation-free conditions through the period. Temperatures will climb a few degrees higher than yesterday with morning lows in the low to mid 70s and daytime highs in the mid to upper 90s.
Cooler northeast flow will keep daytime high temperatures around the mid 70s to near 80.
311 AM PDT Thu Sep 19 2024 Warmer temperatures today compared to yesterday, with chances for scattered showers and thunderstorms along the Sierra mountains south of I-80, with a few lingering cells in the higher elevation foothills.
Some mid-level clouds are moving through the area ahead of the low for some morning cloudy conditions. An occluded upper low pushes off to the northeast into the Manitoba province today.
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: A vertically stacked/occluded low pressure system lifting northeast with wrap-around rainfall over northeast Montana early this morning. Also behind the low pressure, northwest winds will increase and a Lake Wind Advisory is in effect through 6 pm today.
944 AM EDT Thu Sep 19 2024 High pressure is expected to continue to dominate over the region through the rest of the week and into the weekend with mainly dry and mild weather conditions. More clearing tonight with high pressure overhead and areas of valley fog will develop once again. Friday will be similar to today with high pressure still in control and temperatures again in the upper 70s to low 80s. High pressure remains in place through the weekend.
Low pressure responsible for the recent rainfall will continue to trek southward today and a thermal trough will develop along the coast. To the west, high pressure aloft will linger over the eastern Pacific Ocean, largely blocking the storm door for our area. With a thermal trough in place, northeast flow will bring some warmer temperatures at times to the Brookings area with upper 70s-low 80s possible through the weekend. This northeast flow will also bring some gusty winds to the ridges overnight, especially to the Kalmiopsis Wilderness area.
An upper level low and it's sfc reflection, essentially stacked, is tracking north-northeastward into southern Saskatchewan this morning. A cold front is draped north to south across portions of the eastern Dakotas. This boundary marks the delineation between a warmer, more humid air mass to the east versus a cooler, drier air mass to its west. Fire weather concerns are tempered today due to the cooler temperature readings in place. Cooler temperatures infiltrate the area tonight as readings fall into the 50s overnight. The main reason is a stronger high pressure system that tracks closer to North Dakota and then into the western lakes region.
351 AM PDT Thu Sep 19 2024 A low pressure system moving across southern California will deepen the marine layer and maintain well-below average high temperatures through Friday with chances for showers for late tonight through Friday afternoon along with a slight chance of thunderstorms for Friday afternoon.
After a mild, and foggy start in a few spots, area temperatures have risen into the low/mid 70s.
Currently - A deep trough is aligned along the Atlantic Coast and reaches down into the northwestern Caribbean Sea. Meanwhile, a small high is tucked in between this low and the bahamas. Currently, convective activity is concentrated on the near through deep gulf waters of the Lower Keys, driven by old mainland boundaries. This will be due to daytime heating adding to the effect of troughing off the Atlantic coast, as well as, high pressure spilling southward into the Gulf of Mexico. (12Z TAFS) Shower and thunderstorm activity is moving toward the island chain of the Lower Keys currently only impacting EYW.
/Issued 146 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024/ /Through Friday Afternoon/ A strong mid/upper-level ridge, currently extending from northern Mexico into the Middle Mississippi Valley, will persist through the end of the week even as a southern stream upper low prepares to eject toward the Plains. At the surface, ridging to the east and southeast will maintain the prevailing onshore low-level flow yielding unseasonably hot and precipitation-free conditions through the period. Temperatures will climb a few degrees higher than yesterday with morning lows in the low to mid 70s and daytime highs in the mid to upper 90s.
628 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024 (Today through Friday) Another couple of warm and humid days are in store for South Texas today and Friday as ridging aloft continues to dominate over the region.
224 AM PDT Thu Sep 19 2024 * A low pressure system will bring scattered showers and thunderstorms today mainly south of I-80, with snow in higher Sierra elevations. The center of the low pressure system is making its way down the coast and headed for SoCal tonight.
For the next several days, southeast Idaho will remain positioned in between 3 different low pressure systems.
646 AM EDT Thu Sep 19 2024 High pressure is expected to continue to dominate the region through the rest of the week and into the weekend with mainly dry and mild weather conditions. More clearing tonight with high pressure overhead and areas of valley fog will develop once again. Friday will be similar to today with high pressure still in control and temperatures again in the upper 70s to low 80s. High pressure remains in place through the weekend.
A thermal trough has brought gusty northerly winds, building steep seas in waters south of Cape Blanco.
The cold pool behind the front is supporting a shallow CU layer with sprinkles/light showers developing closer to the mid/upper low as expected. The cold front in northwest MN is actively pushing east with stratus ahead of the immediate frontal zone. Some mid-level clouds are moving through the area ahead of the low for some morning cloudy conditions. An occluded upper low pushes off to the northeast into the Manitoba province today.
Meanwhile, high pressure begins to build into the region from the north and west giving our region a dry weekend. As a result, expect for increasing subsidence over the area as higher heights filter into the CFWA through much of the period as upper ridging slowly propagates eastward and essentially shuts down rain chances for most locations. Drier airmass will be in place, but model guidance have a hard time sending a backdoor front this far south in response to the area of high pressure nosing into the region.
321 PM EDT Thu Sep 19 2024 High pressure remains in control through Friday promoting mainly dry and mild conditions.
1227 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024 (Today through Friday) Another couple of warm and humid days are in store for South Texas today and Friday as ridging aloft continues to dominate over the region.
47" at Mustang Ridge in the past 12 hours. (Today and tonight) A positively tilted upper level low currently situated offshore in the vicinity of Big Sur will continue to track south along the California coastline toward Los Angeles today and eventually begin to move inland over San Diego by tomorrow afternoon and evening. Highs today will generally be 5-10 degrees below normal, and slightly warmer tomorrow.
445 PM EDT Thu Sep 19 2024 High pressure centered over eastern Quebec will extend southeastward across the Lower Great Lakes through Friday night.
Temperatures continue to warm into the lower 80s. Only some high clouds around with some fair weather cu over the higher elevations as well. Cooler northeast flow will keep daytime high temperatures around the mid 70s to near 80.
As the afternoon progresses and and warming continues the combination of the anomalously high moisture and warmer condition will result in the unstable air mass by the early evening hours.
/29 (Now through Friday night) An upper trof along the East Coast moves slowly off into the western Atlantic, and meanwhile an upper ridge which extends from the southern Plains to the Great Lakes builds into the forecast region. Lows tonight and Friday night range from the mid 60s well inland to the lower 70s near the coast. Highs on Friday will be mostly in the lower 90s.
Meanwhile, high pressure begins to build into the region from the north and west giving our region a dry weekend. Isolated showers are developing across the NC mtn ridges currently and expect activity to persist into the evening hours. There may be some limited convective activity across the mtns due to ridge top convg, but coverage of precip will be low-end due to the aforementioned subs and mlvl warming. As of 145 PM EDT Thursday: Upper ridge will be dominating the Southern Plains as we move into the short term, with trough in place over the East Coast.
A mid/upper low is centered over southern Manitoba, with drier BL conditions and cooler temperatures aloft already in place behind a cold front (now to the east). Diurnal showers/sprinkles are still rotating into northeast ND at the base of this upper low due to the cold pool/low level lapse rates, but should quickly dissipate with sunset/decoupling in the low levels.
pdf Cold front will sink to the south Tonight, with high pressure building from the north.
The region remains under the influence of a broad trough, but most of the energy in the trough is associated with a closed low in the base of the trough over southern California and the US Southwest. These means there isn't really a trough or a ridge over the region.
157 PM EDT Thu Sep 19 2024 High pressure is expected to continue to dominate over the region through the rest of the week and into the weekend with mainly dry and mild weather conditions. More clearing tonight with high pressure overhead and areas of valley fog will develop once again. Friday will be similar to today with high pressure still in control and temperatures again in the upper 70s to low 80s. High pressure remains in place through the weekend.
(Now through Friday) An upper trof along the East Coast moves slowly off into the western Atlantic, and meanwhile an upper ridge which extends from the southern Plains to the Great Lakes builds into the forecast region. Lows tonight and Friday night range from the mid 60s well inland to the lower 70s near the coast. Highs on Friday will be mostly in the lower 90s. /29 (Friday through Thursday) Most of the extended is looking rather pleasant for mid september as high pressure dominates the first half of the week.
(This evening through Friday Night) Upper level ridging centered over the TX Big Bend/northern MX remains strong, resulting in little weather pattern change across SE TX. At the surface, high pressure system continues overhead, leading to light to occasionally moderate warm and humid onshore flow. Highs will generally range into the low to mid 90s.
(This evening through Friday) The upper level low that brought rain showers and thunderstorms to the interior Central Coast this morning remains south of the Monterey Bay region. The warmest conditions this afternoon will be across the North Bay and East Bay with interior areas warming into the low 80's with 60's and 70's as you move closer to the coast. The upper level trough will push further inland Friday, yet its effects will still linger with temperatures remaining below seasonal averages.
102 PM EDT Thu Sep 19 2024 High pressure is expected to continue to dominate over the region through the rest of the week and into the weekend with mainly dry and mild weather conditions. More clearing tonight with high pressure overhead and areas of valley fog will develop once again. Friday will be similar to today with high pressure still in control and temperatures again in the upper 70s to low 80s. High pressure remains in place through the weekend.
Broad mid-level ridging is over much of Texas while troughing is positioned roughly along the Eastern Seaboard. High temperatures will range from the mid 80s in the higher elevations far east to the low 90s across the far west and portions of the southern counties. Broad ridging aloft will persist over much of the Lone Star State overnight while the East Coast trough slowly moves further east. Mid-level ridging will inch closer to the area from the southwest with the feature becoming centered over the San Antonio area. Dry conditions will continue across the area as high temperatures range from the upper 80s in the higher terrain east to readings in the lower 90s across the west and central counties.
Lows by daybreak Friday should cool into the low/mid 60s with nearly calm conditions.
/Issued 101 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024/ /Through Friday Afternoon/ A strengthening upper level ridge will continue to influence our weather conditions through tomorrow afternoon. Heat indices will likely reach into the low 100s for several locations today as well.
/NEW/ /Through Friday Afternoon/ A strengthening upper level ridge will continue to influence our weather conditions through tomorrow afternoon. Heat indices will likely reach into the low 100s for several locations today as well.
1213 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024 (Rest of today through Friday) Surface and upper level south central and southeastern CONUS based ridging influences are here to stay across mid state region not only through Friday, but through entire weekend. Current regional temperature trends continue to supported previously forecasted high temperature values as as upper level ridging compression clamps down on mid state region resulting in warming temperates with highs this afternoon still looking to range on the seasonally warm side upper 80s to lower 90s, mid 80s Cumberland Plateau Region. Highs on Friday will even be warmer, ranging low to mid 90s, mid 80s to around 90 for locations just west of and across Cumberland Plateau Region. (Friday Night through next Thursday) As mentioned above, ridging will continue to be dominant weather player through weekend.
In addition, winds were gusty this morning, from the lower 30s W to lower 50s E. Arthur Satellite imagery shows slow-moving upper low moving to the northeast over southeast SK. We continue to see showers wrap southward on the back side of the low and into southeast MT. As the low departs and we see pressure falls to our west, winds will decrease over our west this afternoon, and the east in the early evening. A low risk (10-20%) of showers is expected by late afternoon as a cold front arrives and shifts winds to the north. We should see temps climb to the low-mid 70s today, and after a chillier night with much less wind tonight, mid 70s to around 80F on Friday.
155 PM EDT Thu Sep 19 2024 Low pressure system exits northeast tonight, allowing a few rain showers or storms to develop this afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms could develop over the higher terrain, triggered by afternoon heating on Friday. Some showers or storms could spread into the lowlands, but rainfall accumulations are not expected to be significant. A warming trend will continue Friday with lowland temperatures reaching the lower 90, ranging into the lower 80s central mountains, and into the upper 60s northeast mountains. The pattern to start this weekend will feature a weakening upper- level low across northern New England, a ridge over the Ohio Valley, and another low pressure system developing in the Rockies.
Surface temperatures tomorrow will be similar but should come in at least one degree cooler, so a Heat Advisory will likely not be needed but will let the overnight shift re-evaluate.
Models continue to depict a back door cold front backing into our area from the east on Friday, and some spot showers are possible with this feature. Cooler northeast flow will keep daytime high temperatures around the mid 70s to near 80.
(Rest of today through Friday) Surface and upper level south central and southeastern CONUS based ridging influences are here to stay across mid state region not only through Friday, but through entire weekend. Current regional temperature trends continue to supported previously forecasted high temperature values as as upper level ridging compression clamps down on mid state region resulting in warming temperates with highs this afternoon still looking to range on the seasonally warm side upper 80s to lower 90s, mid 80s Cumberland Plateau Region. Highs on Friday will even be warmer, ranging low to mid 90s, mid 80s to around 90 for locations just west of and across Cumberland Plateau Region. (Friday Night through next Thursday) As mentioned above, ridging will continue to be dominant weather player through weekend.
The cold front in northwest MN is actively pushing east with stratus ahead of the immediate frontal zone. Some mid-level clouds are moving through the area ahead of the low for some morning cloudy conditions. An occluded upper low pushes off to the northeast into the Manitoba province today.