Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
This low will continue to move southeast through Saturday and fill. The remaining trough is expected to move through on Saturday. At the surface, high pressure is currently centered across the central part of the county. This high center will shift eastward through the period. By the end of the period, a low pressure system may begin to develop in the western Gulf.
Refreezing of any lingering moisture will be possible tonight, although we are not signaling dangerous cold/cold weather advisory it may be prudent to bring in plants and pets the next couple of days as we dip below freezing overnight.
At the surface, a strong high pressure system over the central US has migrated slowly eastward with its axis (1040-1042mb) centered over MO.
A short wave trough currently moving over the region is bringing spotty snow flurries and light snow showers to the area. As this trough quickly scoots off to the east, so will the snow chances this evening. Despite the trough, the gradual warming trend continues today with southerly flow. Afternoon highs today will top out in the lower to middle 20s with overnight lows falling to around 10 degrees. Ridging will begin building in across the central part of the country this weekend which will lead to much warmer temperatures. On Saturday, it looks like just about everyone in the forecast area will make it above freezing for the first time since 2/18. Locations that received the greatest snowfall will remain a bit cooler.
1146 AM EST Fri Feb 21 2025 - Warmer with a couple of chances for rain/snow Sunshine is here to end the work week! With the recent trends updated the sky cover forecast and bumped up temperatures. - Warmer with a couple of chances for rain/snow Radar shows a few flurries falling over Allegan, Barry, and Kalamazoo counties. Warmer air is on the way. A large area of high pressure over the Missouri Valley will move east to the Ohio Valley this weekend. Southwest winds on the northwest side of the high will draw up warmer air into Lower MI this weekend.
1007 AM EST Fri Feb 21 2025 Northwest winds will become gusty today with high pressure gradually building in from the west. High pressure settles south of New England over the weekend providing mostly dry conditions south of the mountains.
Despite the cold start Saturday morning, increasing southwesterly flow will yield a modest warm-up during the day with highs across the lower elevations reaching the upper 30s or lower 40s by Saturday afternoon.
Ahead of a cold front today, expect increasing south winds and building seas with conditions hazardous to small craft.
(Tonight) High pressure centered over Southern MO/Northern AR has resulted in a cool, but sunny day across the Tennessee Valley.
241 PM EST Fri Feb 21 2025 High pressure settles south of New England over the weekend providing mostly dry conditions south of the mountains.
This would help limit radiative cooling effects, keeping us warmer.
As the H850 thermal trough slowly exits northeast late this evening, low level clouds will continue to gradually erode from south to north across our area. Clouds will be tough to erode across extreme northern sections and northeast mountains until the H850 thermal trough exits northeast of the area later tonight. Despite the cold start Saturday morning, increasing southwesterly flow will yield a modest warm-up during the day with highs across the lower elevations reaching the upper 30s or lower 40s by Saturday afternoon.
Water vapor satellite analysis shows an upper low spinning off the Rockies into the central CONUS, while a broad ridge in the low-levels extends from the Gulf into the Great Lakes. On radar, flurries and a few snow showers are streaked across north-central and eastern Kansas along the northern edge of the dry conveyor belt of the cyclone. Otherwise, temperatures finally starting to warm up: high temps today in the mid to upper 20s northwest of I-44, increasing into the low 30s furthest south. With low temperatures tonight well below freezing, any snow that does melt will refreeze overnight, so remain mindful that warming up doesn't mean that the threat of slick roadways is behind us.
902 PM EST Fri Feb 21 2025 High pressure will build into the region through Saturday.
There will be some increase in wind in the afternoon over the mountain ridges and near the Wyoming border, and maybe some high clouds arriving late in the day.
Northwest flow across the northern Plains is giving way to weak upper ridging over the northern Rockies. Surface analysis shows strong high pressure across the eastern half of the CONUS. Weak high pressure is sitting near the Black Hills, bringing northwesterly winds to the western SD plains. High amplitude thermal ridge centered over the western CONUS will continue to push eastward through the weekend, with warm air advection bringing very warm temperatures to the region.
A mid level thermal trough keeps low clouds across the northern half tonight. As the H850 thermal trough slowly exits northeast late this evening, low level clouds will continue to gradually erode from south to north across our area. Clouds will be tough to erode across extreme northern sections and northeast mountains until the H850 thermal trough exits northeast of the area later tonight. Despite the cold start Saturday morning, increasing southwesterly flow will yield a modest warm-up during the day with highs across the lower elevations reaching the upper 30s or lower 40s by Saturday afternoon.
648 PM EST Fri Feb 21 2025 High pressure will pass across the area this weekend, promoting fair dry conditions. - High confidence for dry weather High pressure is expected to be the dominant weather feature through the near term. Weak high pressure will build over the area Saturday night.
639 PM EST Fri Feb 21 2025 Snow showers will end through this evening as high pressure builds across the region. The high will maintain dry weather through the weekend.
549 PM EST Fri Feb 21 2025 Cold high pressure will build into the region through Saturday.
624 PM EST Fri Feb 21 2025 Arctic high pressure will build in from the northwest through Saturday bringing cold temperatures across the region.
Still, calm winds and continuing cold advection will allow lows to drop into the low to mid 20s across the region as high pressure continues to build in from the west.
536 PM CST Fri Feb 21 2025 (Tonight) High pressure centered over Southern MO/Northern AR has resulted in a cool, but sunny day across the Tennessee Valley.
653 PM EST Fri Feb 21 2025 * Dry conditions prevail this weekend with high pressure building in and temperatures trending up. High pressure and subsidence rule for a couple of days as the center of the high settles to our south and blocks off all Gulf moisture. A couple of nrn stream short wave troughs pass through during the weekend, but it will remain dry with little moisture available and the wind won't veer enough to bring lake effect into the CWA. Expect the skies to not be clear for too long during any stretch of the short term period due to the repeated shots of lift and meager moisture aloft as those troughs pass.
917 PM EST Fri Feb 21 2025 Arctic high pressure will build in from the northwest through Saturday bringing cold temperatures across the region.
559 PM EST Fri Feb 21 2025 - A Nice Weekend Ahead - Chances for Rain and Snow with Warmer Temperatures - A Nice Weekend Ahead High pressure and a drier air mass have brought clearer skies to the area resulting in more sunshine. Saturday will be a little breezy within the southwest flow and the low level jet overhead.
The clouds have kept temps about 20-30 degrees warmer than this time last night with teens east of Springfield and low to mid 20s across the rest of the area. Warmer temps at 850mb (-3 to 0C) will also advect in by the afternoon. These warmer low level temps combined with southwest winds and a warmer start to the day will allow for highs to climb well above freezing by afternoon. Light southwest winds and some passing clouds tonight will allow for temps to drop into the lower 20s.
315 AM EST Sat Feb 22 2025 Fair weather is expected today as high pressure builds in from the west and then settles south of New England.
339 AM EST Sat Feb 22 2025 High pressure remains in control through the weekend. An expansive area of high pressure is moving in, which will remain in control through the weekend.
Low temperatures will drop into the lower 20s in most locations -- with a few readings in the upper Teens possible in southern middle Tennessee. Watching an area of denser clouds around 7-8 kft to the south and west of the lower Mississippi Valley and ArkLaTex. Should this occur, temperatures may be a couple degrees warmer in NW Alabama.
125 AM EST Sat Feb 22 2025 High pressure builds toward the region overnight and will cross the area Saturday.
Afternoon highs today are expected to range from the upper 50s to middle 60s across the area with overnight lows ranging from the lower 30s across the northern counties to lower 40s along the coast.
The ridge extends from the southern Plains into the southeast U. Expect an increase in mainly mid level clouds later this afternoon ahead of trough. Temperatures should be warmer than yesterday with weak warm advection noted. Cloudiness should diminish behind the trough during the evening and with temps should be a little warmer, near freezing as the weak low-level warm advection continues.
1248 AM EST Sat Feb 22 2025 High pressure will pass across the area this weekend, promoting fair dry conditions. - High confidence for dry weather High pressure is expected to be the dominant weather feature through the near term. Weak high pressure will build over the area Saturday night.
INCREASING CLOUDS AND WARMER TODAY. pdf Increasing cloudiness today and warmer with less wind as a broad area of low pressure forms across the southern Gulf today, then crosses the FL peninsula this evening. There is a low (< 10%) of light mainly coastal showers across NE FL this afternoon into the early evening as the broad low tracks across south FL and a mid level short wave trough passes overhead. With the warmer westerly flow today, high temperatures will be about 10-15 degrees warmer today and range from the low 60s across SE GA to near 70 across our inland north-central FL zones.
353 AM EST Sat Feb 22 2025 High pressure will maintain dry weather through the weekend.
1242 AM EST Sat Feb 22 2025 High pressure will build into the region through Saturday.
(Today and tonight) Expect warmer temperatures today as the cold airmass finally gives way to weak southeast flow.
Could see temperatures a couple degrees cooler for the southern South Plains and southern Rolling Plains with the expected cloud cover. Clouds are expected to clear tonight allowing low temperatures to cool to at or just below freezing.
1246 AM EST Sat Feb 22 2025 - A Nice Weekend Ahead - Chances for Rain and Snow with Warmer Temperatures - A Nice Weekend Ahead High pressure and a drier air mass have brought clearer skies to the area resulting in more sunshine. Saturday will be a little breezy within the southwest flow and the low level jet overhead.
203 AM CST Sat Feb 22 2025 While considerably warmer conditions are ongoing across the state early this Sat morning compared to previous days. Temps are hovering around or just below freezing. temps will be well above freezing to see maybe just some light rain.
Highs today should rise to above freezing with mid 30's to lower 40's.
Dry conditions are expected for the second half of the weekend with high pressure in control over the area.
1205 AM EST Sat Feb 22 2025 High pressure will maintain dry weather through the weekend.
Increased cloud cover is expected through the day with temperatures remaining cool but warmer than the past few days. This, along with some southerly flow, will also keep temperatures fairly cool but still warmer than recent day.
333 AM EST Sat Feb 22 2025 Light lake effect snow showers will tapper off this morning as high pressure builds into the region.
341 AM EST Sat Feb 22 2025 High pressure remains in control through the weekend. An expansive area of high pressure is moving in, which will remain in control through the weekend.
228 AM EST Sat Feb 22 2025 - Dry weekend - Warmer into midweek, rain chances, then cooler - Dry weekend IR imagery shows some high clouds floating over the top of the state along with some lake-induced stratocu moving over the west central cwa. High pressure moving across the Ohio Valley will result in partly sunny skies today.
654 AM EST Sat Feb 22 2025 High pressure will build across the region today through tonight.
255 AM MST Sat Feb 22 2025 - Mainly dry weather with temperatures slightly cooler than yesterday are expected today.
420 AM MST Sat Feb 22 2025 - Ridging across the desert southwest will keep most moisture and precipitation to our north for the next several days.
737 AM EST Sat Feb 22 2025 High pressure will maintain dry weather through the weekend.
346 AM MST Sat Feb 22 2025 - Warmer and generally quiet weather today and tonight.
This is just enough to help produce lightning with the highest tops that can be produced Sunday. The chance of lightning has moved up but it remains in the isolated category with the highest percentage at 20% mainly along west and south of a line from interstate 55 to Lake Pontchartrain then east along the coast.
Temperatures for many will warm to above freezing on Sunday, meaning more rain than snow.
320 AM CST Sat Feb 22 2025 - Temperatures will warm up above freezing area-wide today for the first time in a week.
Because the near surface air will be slow to modify, there is a low but reasonable chance that precip could briefly be in the form of freezing rain at the onset. In any case, substantial rainfall is expected over southern portions of the forecast area, particularly along/south of the Highway 84 corridor where in excess of an inch is forecast.
These clouds are associated with a 500mb trough that is currently diving southeastward from Oklahoma. By Sunday, a fast-moving 500mb closed low will eject eastward from the Desert Southwest with surface cyclogenesis occurring just off the Texas Gulf Coast.
345 AM MST Sat Feb 22 2025 - Mainly dry weather with temperatures slightly cooler than yesterday are expected today.
High temperatures should be a few degrees warmer today in response to weak warm air advection. Lows tonight will also be a few degrees warmer with lower 30s expected over the interior to near 40 degrees along the coast. Deep moisture will advect northeastward across the forecast area Sunday to the north of the low pressure and associated frontal zone which should remain well offshore. Temperatures will be held down by the cloud cover and rainfall with most locations remaining in the lower to middle 50 west of I-65, with a few more hours of heating east resulting in upper 50s to lower 60s prior to rain moving in.
625 AM EST Sat Feb 22 2025 High pressure remains in control through the weekend. An expansive area of high pressure is moving in, which will remain in control through the weekend. Temperatures today will be a few degrees below normal in the upper 30s/low 40s, with highs getting closer to normal on Sunday, in the low to mid 40s, with some upper 40s around Delmarva and South Jersey.
943 AM EST Sat Feb 22 2025 High pressure will build across the region today through tonight.
521 AM EST Sat Feb 22 2025 High pressure will build across the region today through tonight.
Some isolated showers have developed and a couple have managed to move across the Lower Keys. Meanwhile a sprawling high pressure continues to slowly shift east across the eastern half of the U. Given current radar trends and where the best moisture lies, the Lower Keys may be stuck in this dreary-esque weather for most of the day. That being said, felt that guidance is going a little too strong on temperatures rebounding for today and have kept temperatures in the lower to mid 70s for daytime highs. Otherwise, breezy conditions will persist through much of today as a sprawling high pressure remains settled across the eastern half of the U. This high will shift east through the afternoon and evening, allowing for winds to relax.
620 AM CST Sat Feb 22 2025 (Saturday through Sunday) An upper-level trough swinging east across Oklahoma and Arkansas has allowed for weak echoes to be observed across much of east and northeast Texas and north Louisiana this morning. Could see a few showers across portions of Deep East Texas and north Louisiana later today as the atmosphere begins to saturate in the lower-levels. Upper-level flow to become southwest ahead of a trough that will swing east across the region overnight. Temperatures are forecast to fall into the 30s across the region overnight with below freezing temperatures expected across mainly south Arkansas, northeast Texas, and southeast Oklahoma. Based on model trends over the past several runs, the chance of wintry precip will be minimal due to the highest pop values remaining south of the freezing line.
Rain chances will be 30 to 70 percent today with high temperatures in the low to mid 40s. The good news is that, with the cloud cover expected to persist tonight, temperatures will not drop too much overnight so we will be above freezing.
630 AM EST Sat Feb 22 2025 High pressure will dominate the region until exiting the region early to mid week.
This precipitation is being generated, in part, due to a closed area of low pressure located roughly 60 miles east of South Padre Island. Scattered to numerous areas of rainfall will occur today and tonight, with the best chance of precipitation occurring along and east of the Interstate 69C corridor, as the low moves north and east over the western Gulf of America. Rapidly drying weather is anticipated on Sunday as the low moves along the coast of Louisiana. Temperature-wise, well below normal daytime highs and overnight lows are anticipated, courtesy of generally overcast skies, the sustained chance of rain, and cold air advection sustained and reinforced by the proximity of the low. Finally, elevated seas along the Lower Texas Coast will ensure a High Risk of rip currents at the local beaches throughout the entire short term forecast period.
850 AM EST Sat Feb 22 2025 High pressure remains in control through the weekend. An expansive area of high pressure is moving in, which will remain in control through the weekend. Temperatures today will be a few degrees below normal in the upper 30s/low 40s, with highs getting closer to normal on Sunday, in the low to mid 40s, with some upper 40s around Delmarva and South Jersey.
644 AM EST Sat Feb 22 2025 - Dry weekend - Warmer into midweek, rain chances, then cooler - Dry weekend IR imagery shows some high clouds floating over the top of the state along with some lake-induced stratocu moving over the west central cwa. High pressure moving across the Ohio Valley will result in partly sunny skies today. An approaching cold front Sunday will result in more clouds than we'll see today, but the precipitation with it will remain north of the cwa. Continued southwest winds will pull some warmer air into the cwa and highs Sunday will be in the mid 30s.
328 AM MST Sat Feb 22 2025 - Ridging across the desert southwest will keep most moisture and precipitation to our north for the next several days.
511 AM CST Sat Feb 22 2025 - Temperatures will warm up above freezing area-wide today for the first time in a week.
Current upper air models show northwest flow over the forecast area, with mild ridging over the western CONUS. Ridge slides eastward into the northern and central plains over the weekend, bringing strong WAA into the area, and much above normal temperatures. Highs today should climb into the 40s to low 50s, and even warmer on Sunday.
506 AM CST Sat Feb 22 2025 While considerably warmer conditions are ongoing across the state early this Sat morning compared to previous days. Temps are hovering around or just below freezing. temps will be well above freezing to see maybe just some light rain. Temps will also remain well above freezing this time around to see all liquid. (12Z TAFS) High pressure will continue to control the weather pattern through the period with calm and dry conditions expected.
Going into this evening and overnight a stronger upper level trough will move east out of New Mexico and into Texas.
331 PM EST Sat Feb 22 2025 High pressure will prevail across the region through Sunday.
The aforementioned trough will move further northward just offshore the Texas Coast tomorrow as a mid-level trough swings across the Ark- La-Tex region. The notable 850-700mb positive vorticity forcing shifts east of the area with the trough in the afternoon. Most of South Texas will see the sun and warmer temperatures with highs climbing into the 60s and a few areas over the Rio Grande Plains reaching the lower 70s due to longer sunshine exposure.
235 PM EST Sat Feb 22 2025 High pressure over central NC will shift offshore tonight.
/Issued 1242 PM CST Sat Feb 22 2025/ /Today Through Sunday Night/ A much warmer day across North and Central Texas today with current temperatures in the low to mid 40s. Radar this afternoon shows some light rain continues across our Central Texas counties ahead of an approaching weak upper trough over northern Mexico. Increasing cloud cover and weak WAA is expected to keep temperatures above freezing tonight across areas that will see rain in North and Central Texas with lows in the 30s. However, there is a slim possibility for some brief freezing rain in North Texas as temperatures could be close to freezing. All rain should exit the area by Sunday afternoon, with a significantly warmer day anticipated as upper level winds become more westerly.
Another upper-level trough will extend these showers further northward throughout the night. Lows will only drop to the upper 30s south of the I-20 corridor, while the uncovered northern half of the region falls just below freezing. With much of the region covered by rain, afternoon highs will be limited to the high 40s to lower 50s.
High pressure centered over the Tennessee Valley is bringing quiet weather to the region this weekend and allowing river waters down steadily on area rivers.
1122 AM CST Sat Feb 22 2025 While considerably warmer conditions are ongoing across the state early this Sat morning compared to previous days. Temps are hovering around or just below freezing. temps will be well above freezing to see maybe just some light rain. Temps will also remain well above freezing this time around to see all liquid. (12Z TAFS) High pressure will continue to control the weather pattern through the period with calm and dry conditions expected.
1019 AM MST Sat Feb 22 2025 - Ridging across the desert southwest will keep most moisture and precipitation to our north for the next several days.
A return to clearer skies and calm winds will allow for efficient radiational cooling and one more night of widespread subfreezing low temperatures.
1108 AM CST Sat Feb 22 2025 (Rest of Today) Mid level cloud cover associated with a fast moving upper trough axis continues to translate eastward over much of the region this late Sat morning. These clouds should eventually move east of the of the mid TN Valley this afternoon as the upper trough exits the region. Otherwise, high pressure at the sfc will also gradually move into the region later today, with continued dry wx as highs trend predom in the mid/perhaps upper 40s for most spots.
912 AM CST Sat Feb 22 2025 A few showers have developed this morning across the region as an H5 upper trough moves east across the Tennessee and mid MS River Valley. This is just enough to help produce lightning with the highest tops that can be produced Sunday. The chance of lightning has moved up but it remains in the isolated category with the highest percentage at 20% mainly along west and south of a line from interstate 55 to Lake Pontchartrain then east along the coast.
A had freeze is again forecast for areas generally near and north of Interstate 20 with lows ranging from the lower 20s far north to around 30 southeast.