Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Our next system is on approach to our area, as evidenced by the high clouds moving in from the NW. Chances of 40+ mph gusts are primarily confined to the high terrain, so will not be issuing any wind headlines. Strongest winds will be in the lower Colorado River Valley during the morning hours, where gusts of 30-40 mph are expected. Again, chances for 40+ mph gusts are largely confined to the higher terrain, so not anticipating the need for any wind headlines here either.
Temperatures tonight will dip to near/below freezing for northern/eastern portions of the area, but increasing cloud cover should limit cooling elsewhere and keep readings above freezing.
728 PM EST Mon Feb 17 2025 An elongated upper trough will remain just north of Pennsylvania the next couple of days, as surface ridging noses into the state from the west.
Synoptically, we continue to see a very broad upper- level trough across the far northern CONUS, with a cut-off upper- level low loitering over southwestern Ontario Canada.
A Heavy Freezing Spray Warning is in effect into Tuesday morning.
Precipitation chances will continue into Tuesday, shifting east as a drier airmass builds in from the west courtesy of a transitory ridge of high pressure shifting into the PacNW from the Pacific.
A mostly dry and mild weather pattern continues through much of this week across northern Arizona as high pressure remains centered just off the southern California coast. The winds have dropped off this evening and will continue to weaken as the trough crosses the region. North-west winds will continue on Tuesday with the strongest winds along and immediately downwind of the higher terrain, especially towards the White Mountains.
Otherwise, the forecast looks on track with Tuesday shaping up to be another day of beautiful weather, with rain free conditions and temperatures a few degrees warmer than today. The cold front that pushed through yesterday will continue to bring us northerly winds around 5 to 10 knots through Tuesday.
Clouds will continue to increase through the night, with overnight lows mostly in the low to mid 30s along with light easterly winds. Tonight through Tuesday: Cool high pressure will maintain control of the weather over the forecast area in the near term. Temperatures tonight will dip to near/below freezing for northern/eastern portions of the area, but increasing cloud cover should limit cooling elsewhere and keep readings above freezing.
- An arctic cold front will move through on Tuesday.
- Aviation concerns for freezing/frozen precipitation at KCDS Tuesday morning. - A strong cold front is passing through the region this morning, bringing bitterly cold temperatures to the entire region with areas of freezing drizzle being possible over the far southeastern Texas Panhandle through the day.
High pressure will continue to settle in through the middle of the week, bringing daytime highs 5-10 degrees above normal.
1035 PM EST Mon Feb 17 2025 An elongated upper trough will remain just north of Pennsylvania the next couple of days, as surface ridging noses into the state from the west.
On the surface, high pressure over the mid-Atlantic region ridges southwest across northern Florida and into the northeast gulf.
1230 AM EST Tue Feb 18 2025 An elongated upper trough will remain just north of Pennsylvania the next couple of days, as surface ridging noses into the state from the west.
207 AM EST Tue Feb 18 2025 Drier weather amid high pressure through today.
Drier conditions will prevail through the middle of this week as high pressure strengthens off the coast before moving inland.
- Cold, winter weather continues through the week Cold, winter weather will continue with lows tonight dropping to near zero across central Michigan and in the low single digits along and west of the US 131 corridor. Another low pressure system will move through the region through the latter half of the week, however it is a moisture starved system and snow amounts will by sparse.
Gusts to 35 mph have been noted near Barstow, and a few higher gusts are likely occurring over the higher terrain over western San Bernardino County. Gusty winds tomorrow will primarily be confined to the lower Colorado River Valley, where 30 to 40 mph gusts are expected, mainly during the morning hours before diminishing during the afternoon. Our next system is on approach to our area, as evidenced by the high clouds moving in from the NW. Chances of 40+ mph gusts are primarily confined to the high terrain, so will not be issuing any wind headlines. Strongest winds will be in the lower Colorado River Valley during the morning hours, where gusts of 30-40 mph are expected. Again, chances for 40+ mph gusts are largely confined to the higher terrain, so not anticipating the need for any wind headlines here either.
450 AM EST Tue Feb 18 2025 An elongated upper trough will remain just north of Pennsylvania the next couple of days, as surface ridging noses into the state from the west.
The highest accumulations reside along the Arkansas/Missouri and Kentucky/ Tennessee Borders.
Center of high pressure remains in Saskatchewan today and it will slowly move southeast with ridge axis over the area Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday night. Winds lighter as well so this will mean not as low wind chills during the warmer part of the day today and also Wednesday. This will allow a much welcome break from the very cold weather and bring much warmer temperatures in time.
On the surface, high pressure over the mid-Atlantic region ridges southwest across northern Florida and into the northeast gulf. By Wednesday morning, models continue to develop an area of low pressure and associated cold front over the northern gulf coast states and move this system eastward toward Florida. This area of low pressure and front will bring increasing rain and storms chances to west central and southwest Florida for most of the day on Wednesday.
Skies will become cloudy Wednesday as a mid level trough brings warm advection from the north.
A W/E orientated upper trough will continue southward over the lower peninsula Tuesday. This will provide lift and allow for warmer 850 temps to gradually advect above northern MI during the short term period.
Bitterly cold temperatures are found across the forecast area this morning, generally ranging from the lower 40s below up to the lower 20s below. Cyclonic flow continues over the western and central North Dakota this morning as an upper level low closes off to the east this afternoon. A bitterly cold airmass accompanies the ongoing intrusion of Arctic high pressure at the surface into the northern Plains. Life- threatening temperatures thus are found over the forecast area, with lows this morning forecast from the lower 30s to mid 40s below zero.
518 AM CST Tue Feb 18 2025 - A strong cold front is passing through the region this morning, bringing bitterly cold temperatures to the entire region with areas of snow and sleet being possible over the far southeastern Texas Panhandle through the day.
Cyclonic flow continues over the western and central North Dakota this morning as an upper level low closes off to the east this afternoon. A bitterly cold airmass accompanies the ongoing intrusion of Arctic high pressure at the surface into the northern Plains. Life- threatening temperatures thus are found over the forecast area, with lows this morning forecast from the lower 30s to mid 40s below zero.
The Keys also remain on the southern side of an Arctic high pressure system dropping southeastward into the central Plains from Canada with this ridge extending southeastward into the western North Atlantic. This is leaving the Keys on the southern side of this ridge. Overnight lows will be in the lower 70s. Moisture begins to increase Wednesday night as a cold front moves southward through the Gulf resulting in slight chances returning to the forecast.
Warmer, above-normal temperatures then expected by late week continuing into the weekend. Clear, mostly sunny skies are anticipated today as ridging builds aloft.
Ridging is making its way in today. Precipitation with an incoming warm front is likely to stay offshore or west of the area. An upper low will move into the area early Wednesday. Another area of concern will be strong winds as the trough moves towards the southern Oregon coast. After, this upper low will move out of the area and ridging will take control through the rest of the work week and bring quiet conditions and mild weather.
Drier conditions will prevail through the week as high pressure remains the dominate feature. A short lived ridge zips through the region this afternoon through early Wednesday morning. The ridge on Wednesday the PoE of 65 increases to 80 to 95 percent for the same region.
613 AM EST Tue Feb 18 2025 An elongated upper trough will remain just north of Pennsylvania the next couple of days, as surface ridging noses into the state from the west.
* High pressure will build in for the rest of the week, bringing warmer, spring-like temperatures by the weekend. Aside from a few morning low clouds, mostly clear skies are expected for most areas with increasing high clouds towards late afternoon as a quick moving low pressure system approaches the Pacific Northwest. Nevada on Wednesday with afternoon wind gusts expected to reach around 30-40 mph for most areas as Sierra ridgetop gusts exceed 80 mph. Most shower activity will diminish by Wednesday evening with high pressure then building in for the remainder of the week.
903 AM EST Tue Feb 18 2025 Strong low pressure remains across the Canadian Maritimes into today. High pressure builds toward the region Wednesday.
Have not received any reports as of yet, but radar trends suggest snow has been heaviest and most prolonged generally along and either side of the Highway 56 and 50 corridor across central and east-central Kansas, where accumulations through sunrise could reach up to around 2-4 inches in spots. Per deterministic and ensemble consensus, bitter cold Arctic air will persist through late week, as unusually strong Arctic high pressure continues to settle south across the CONUS.
The next system brings snow showers to Humboldt County early Wednesday morning, with valley rain and mountain snow expanding south and east to at least the Highway 50 corridor by Wednesday afternoon.
633 AM EST Tue Feb 18 2025 An elongated upper trough will remain just north of Pennsylvania the next couple of days, as surface ridging noses into the state from the west.
319 PM EST Tue Feb 18 2025 An elongated upper trough will remain just north of Pennsylvania the next couple of days, as surface ridging noses into the state from the Midwest and Ohio Valley.
Radar is showing light returns along and west of the Cascades with over running precipitation along and ahead of a warm front. Also the upper pattern at 500mb shows a negatively tilted trough approaching the coast later tonight into Wednesday morning which is indicative of a deepening low. Guidance shows a low pressure system deepening as it approaches 130 W later tonight.
Currently highs are in the low to mid 70's across the area with just some clouds as we are still under the influence of high pressure. However, as we get into our overnight period a cold front will start to approach the area. This should be our best chance of rain for the next 7 days with the highest coverage north of I-4. We will much colder air behind this front as a strong high pressure settles in across the eastern half of the country.
As a transitory ridge of high pressure builds in from the west, predominantly dry conditions have returned across SE Idaho under mostly clear to mostly cloudy skies as light snow showers persist in the mountains and across the Upper Snake River Plain. As this ridge axis shifts overhead tonight, patchy areas of low stratus and fog remain favored to develop with the addition of patchy fog added to the forecast for tonight through Wednesday morning. As that ridge axis pulls east Wednesday morning, widespread precipitation will begin moving in west to east through the morning and afternoon hours across SRN Idaho as a H5 trough moving onshore from the Pacific supports widespread snow and a rain/snow mix below about 4500 feet.
Increasing cloudiness today ahead of a cold front bringing light rain to the North Bay on Wednesday.
1254 PM PST Tue Feb 18 2025 * Light Sierra snow showers and gusty winds return Wednesday with a fast moving cold front.
Radar is showing light returns along and west of the Cascades with over running precipitation along and ahead of a warm front. Also the upper pattern at 500mb shows a negatively tilted trough approaching the coast later tonight into Wednesday morning which is indicative of a deepening low. A warm front moving over the area is bringing some showers west of the Cascades that may locally lower visibilities, but substantial activity is not expected through this afternoon. Snow levels of 5000 feet or higher will limit snowfall to the highest areas, with heavy snowfall expected over the Cascades near the end of the TAF period. Guidance shows a low pressure system deepening as it approaches 130 W later tonight.
153 PM EST Tue Feb 18 2025 An elongated upper trough will remain just north of Pennsylvania the next couple of days, as surface ridging noses into the state from the west.
1133 AM EST Tue Feb 18 2025 An elongated upper trough will remain just north of Pennsylvania the next couple of days, as surface ridging noses into the state from the west.
A cold front is moving from north to south across northeastern Arizona this morning. High pressure will continue to settle in through the middle of the week, bringing daytime highs 5-10 degrees above normal.
319 PM EST Tue Feb 18 2025 Winds and lake effect snow will gradually decrease tonight into Wednesday as high pressure builds in from the west. Additional snowfall accumulations of 1-3" are expected, with the highest totals occurring in the western Mohawk Valley.
332 PM EST Tue Feb 18 2025 A low pressure system will move east through the Tennessee Valley and the Southern States tonight into Wednesday morning, bringing the threat for accumulating snow across our southern forecast area. Another low pressure system will then move quickly across the Great lakes and Ohio Valley Wednesday night, bringing a chance for snow showers to the entire area.
While daytime heating has slackened breezes a touch, variable directions are observed along the Reef with generally southeasterlies along the Middle and Upper Keys and northerlies found over the Lower Keys. Nearly clear skies have allowed temperatures to rise up to near 80 across most of the island chain, with the exception being the lower 80s closer to mainland north of Key Largo. Low temperatures will sink down to the low 70s with highs continuing to stretch up to near 80. As this high limps into the western North Atlantic, breezes will shift around to the southeast on Wednesday. An influx of mid level moisture brought along with the approach of our next cold front will reintroduce rain chances to the forecast.
1207 PM EST Tue Feb 18 2025 Strong low pressure remains across the Canadian Maritimes into today. High pressure builds toward the region Wednesday.
Dense fog is lingering in lower elevation valleys near Ontario and Burns, OR and the Lower Treasure Valley/Weiser River Valley in Idaho this morning. Visibilities will remain low with patchy ice on roadways from freezing fog through early afternoon, with about a 20% chance dense fog will continue through the day in the lowest elevations near Ontario, OR and Vale, OR. Valley rain and mountain snow will move in tonight with snow levels around 3000-4000 feet, with a low chance of freezing rain in sheltered valleys near Burns, OR and along the foothills of the Owyhee Mountains early Wednesday morning.
(This evening through Wednesday Night) Cold weather will return to the Ark-La-Tx beginning this afternoon with an approaching cold front. Below-freezing temperatures will be confined to areas along and north of the I-20 corridor, leading us to issue a Winter Weather Advisory for freezing rain in these areas. While ice accumulations in the advisory will largely be in the realm of several hundreths of an inch, impacts are possible on bridges, overpasses, trees, and powerlines. Wednesday will be dry but cold due to the cold air mass remaining behind the cold front. Current guidance suggests areas along and north of the I-20 corridor could drop down to single digit wind chills while areas south of I-20 will have values in the low-mid teens.
1120 AM CST Tue Feb 18 2025 - A strong cold front is passing through the region this morning, bringing bitterly cold temperatures to the entire region with areas of snow and sleet being possible over the far southeastern Texas Panhandle through the day.
323 PM EST Tue Feb 18 2025 Strong low pressure remains across the Canadian Maritimes into tonight. High pressure builds toward the region Wednesday.
A closed low at 500 mb settling over north-central IL by Wednesday evening should promote enough deep lift for saturation well into dendritic growth zone temperatures, promoting a chance for light snow for the afternoon and evening.
Tomorrow will see similar conditions with a few degrees cooler for the Northern Sac. With the lowered chances and lack of Extreme Forecast Index signal, forecast point to just a breezy day but below any critical threshold.
500mb analysis a longwave trough across the four corners region of the county. The longwave trough will hang back to the west through the short term period. This low pressure system will move offshore into the western Gulf this evening and continue east along the Gulf Coast overnight. By tomorrow, the Gulf low will begin to transfer energy to a low pressure system in the western Atlantic. On the back side of the western Atlantic low pressure, some upslope snow is likely.
Yesterday's cold front is still stuck in the Straits of Florida allowing some showers to bubble along its boundary fueled by the warmer waters of the Gulf Stream.
- An Arctic cold front has brought bitterly cold temperatures to the entire region, with areas of snow and sleet expected over the far southeastern Texas Panhandle through this evening.
1227 PM EST Tue Feb 18 2025 High pressure builds in from the west before sliding south and east of the region Tuesday night.
Lingering mountain snow showers across northern Utah will come to an end this evening as high pressure briefly returns Tuesday night into early Wednesday.
706 PM EST Tue Feb 18 2025 A low pressure system will move east through the Tennessee Valley and the Southern States tonight into Wednesday morning, bringing the threat for accumulating snow across our southern forecast area. Another low pressure system will then move quickly across the Great lakes and Ohio Valley Wednesday night, bringing a chance for snow showers to the entire area.
440 PM MST Tue Feb 18 2025 - Light snow showers continue over the higher terrain through tomorrow morning, with an additional 1-3 inches possible.
707 PM CST Tue Feb 18 2025 (This evening through Wednesday Night) Cold weather will return to the Ark-La-Tx beginning this afternoon with an approaching cold front. Below-freezing temperatures will be confined to areas along and north of the I-20 corridor, leading us to issue a Winter Weather Advisory for freezing rain in these areas. While ice accumulations in the advisory will largely be in the realm of several hundreths of an inch, impacts are possible on bridges, overpasses, trees, and powerlines. Wednesday will be dry but cold due to the cold air mass remaining behind the cold front. Current guidance suggests areas along and north of the I-20 corridor could drop down to single digit wind chills while areas south of I-20 will have values in the low-mid teens.
655 PM EST Tue Feb 18 2025 An elongated upper trough will remain just north of Pennsylvania the next couple of days, as surface ridging noses into the state from the Midwest and Ohio Valley.
248 PM MST Tue Feb 18 2025 - Light snow showers continue over the higher terrain through tomorrow morning, with an additional 1-3 inches possible.
Only light glazing of ice is expected from freezing rain, mainly in north Mississippi.
934 PM EST Tue Feb 18 2025 A low pressure system will move east through the Tennessee Valley and the Southern States tonight into Wednesday morning, bringing the threat for accumulating snow across our southern forecast area. Another low pressure system will then move quickly across the Great lakes and Ohio Valley Wednesday night, bringing a chance for snow showers to the entire area.
Winds will turn to southerly Wednesday morning ahead of the next cold front, leading to increasing moisture and the chance for some areas of sea fog developing over the coastal waters.
621 PM EST Tue Feb 18 2025 Strong low pressure remains across the Canadian Maritimes into tonight. High pressure builds toward the region Wednesday.
Rain will increase from west to east later this evening into the overnight hours and as the cold air moves into the Delta, the rain may mix with or change over to freezing rain and sleet. This could result in a light glaze primarily on bridges and overpasses across the Delta, with mainly very light accumulations possible. Overnight lows will range from the low/mid 20s across the Delta, to the low 40s in the Pine Belt Region. With the gusty winds, wind chills will fall into the upper single digits to the low teens for areas northwest of the Natchez trace.
Mid to high level cloud cover continues to slowly work into northwest Minnesota tonight, with temperatures slightly warmer where cloud cover exists.
Models continue to move this area of low pressure and associated cold front eastward toward Florida through the day.
Precip types will range from sleet, rain, freezing rain, and snow. Soundings were showing a freezing rain/sleet possibility as well.
North winds through the column over Ontario CAN will continue to push the troughing southwestward this morning.
217 AM EST Wed Feb 19 2025 A low pressure system will move east through the Tennessee Valley and the Southern States tonight into Wednesday morning, bringing the threat for accumulating snow across our southern forecast area. Another low pressure system will then move quickly across the Great lakes and Ohio Valley Wednesday night, bringing a chance for snow showers to the entire area.
This sets up yet another Cold Weather Advisory, however compared to the past couple of mornings we should generally see 10-15 degree 'warmer' wind chills.
Cloud cover should keep temperatures a few degrees "warmer" than last night with lows looking to bottom out between 0 and +10 degrees. A closed low at 500 mb settling over north-central IL by Wednesday evening should promote enough deep lift for saturation well into dendritic growth zone temperatures, promoting a chance for light snow for the afternoon and evening.
951 PM MST Tue Feb 18 2025 - Light snow showers continue over the higher terrain through tomorrow morning, with an additional 1-3 inches possible.
814 PM PST Tue Feb 18 2025 Warmer conditions are expected for Wednesday.
Brief upper ridging tonight before the next Pacific storm comes in Wednesday morning. No snow accumulation is now expected in the Upper Treasure Valley, but the Lower Treasure Valley may get an inch of mixed snow and freezing rain Wednesday morning before changing to rain. Slight chance (15%) of freezing rain in E-central Oregon and W Snake Plain with the onset of precip.
Another low pressure system will move quickly across the Great lakes and Ohio Valley tonight, bringing a chance for snow showers to the entire area. High temperatures are a few degrees warmer than yesterday with upper teens in the north and mid 20s across the south. Later this evening, attention shifts to the primary vort-max associated with a closed pivoting through the lower Midwest and Ohio Valley. The closed low pivots into the Ohio Valley later this evening with scattered to numerous snow showers expected. While temperature remain cold, much of the forcing will occur in temperatures cooler than the DGZ, decreasing the size of the flakes. Nevertheless, given the high snow ratios, cold temperatures, and timing, an SPS has been issued to cover the threat for slick roads later this evening.