Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
338 AM EDT Fri Sep 19 2025 High pressure will maintain warm and mostly-dry weather into the weekend. KEY MESSAGES: - Dry weather continues - Isolated valley fog possible this morning --------------------------------------------------------------- With a lot of dry air in the lower levels relative to recent days, most locations should remain fog free outside of a few isolated spots along area rivers this morning looking at current dewpoint depressions. - A weak front brings slightly cooler temperatures -------------------------------------------------------------- Friday night will feature normal or just above normal temperatures again with the potential of fog development, mainly in the river valleys. Ensembles continue to show the high center positioned to the north into the Great Lakes shifting southeast into the New England area.
An upper trough over the East Coast slowly moves off through the weekend. Another upper trough develops over the Lower Mississippi River Valley over the weekend, then moves slowly east over the Southeast in the coming week. 5" or a bit higher) working with a weakness in the upper ridging will allow isolated afternoon convection to form over the Southeast.
A few low pressure systems moving through the region and deeper moisture pooled in the Deep South may actually yield some heavy rainfall potential before the week is over.
Otherwise, with the drier conditions prevailing, we should see cooler lows tonight with values bottoming out in the 50s.
The upper ridge will also promote a slight warming trend tomorrow, with temperatures rising back into the mid to upper 80s in the lower elevations Friday and lingering into Saturday.
At the moment, we're beneath the upper level ridge, with a strong low over northern Quebec/NE CONUS, and a digging trough/closed low across the northern plains.
(Tonight through Saturday Night) An upper level ridge will keep the warm and dry pattern going through the day Friday.
(Through Friday) Mid-level water vapor satellite imagery and RAP analysis shows the upper low spinning over the Northern Dakotas. With the departing trough, precipitation chances are expected to decrease from north to south this morning with a lull in any activity this afternoon and evening.
This will keep areas near Lake Superior cooler with generally cooler highs this afternoon in the upper 50s to upper 60s. Meanwhile another trough makes landfall over the PAC NW on Sun. From there, high pressure builds in with diminishing cyclonic flow aloft bringing back drier weather for the mid to late portion of the work week. Confidence in the fcst rapidly breaks down at this point as the aforementioned trough making landfall over the PAC NW on Sun is not resolved well beyond Wed. A ridge looks to build in over the W in the trough's wake, traversing E toward the Canadian Prairie late week. How that feature gets affected by a closed low developing somewhere over the Central U. This low stratus and eventual patchy fog development is expected to persist through daybreak, especially at SAW.
- Turning cooler Friday and Saturday with low shower chances at times.
1245 AM EDT Fri Sep 19 2025 Warm and mostly dry weather prevails into the weekend under high pressure. A high pressure system will continue to provide dry weather today and tonight. With some low level dry air in the soundings, particuarly along the I-64 corridor, lowered afternoon dewpoints to the lower end of guidance. We also have upper level ridging which will also keep us somewhat settled for the day.
250 AM EDT Fri Sep 19 2025 High pressure will extend over the area through Saturday. A weak back-door cold front will slide south through the area late Saturday and Saturday night.
1257 AM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025 An upper trough over the East Coast slowly moves off through the weekend. Another upper trough develops over the Lower Mississippi River Valley over the weekend, then moves slowly east over the Southeast in the coming week. 5" or a bit higher) working with a weakness in the upper ridging will allow isolated afternoon convection to form over the Southeast.
1255 AM EDT Fri Sep 19 2025 High pressure will extend over the area through Saturday. A weak back-door cold front will slide south through the area late Saturday and Saturday night.
1204 AM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025 Updated at 1203 AM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025 - Low rain chances (10-30%) continue in the higher terrain and in Southeast New Mexico through Saturday.
130 AM EDT Fri Sep 19 2025 High pressure will extend over the area through Saturday. A weak back-door cold front will slide south through the area late Saturday and Saturday night.
After scattered showers tonight, the highest chances for rain will shift east of Highway 83 on Friday.
(Today through Saturday) The forecast for today and Saturday is trending drier as a weak area of low pressure in the western Atlantic pushes off to the northeast and ushers in a slightly drier air mass behind it.
1110 PM MDT Thu Sep 18 2025 - Warmer on Friday, with some convection returning to the southwest mountains by late afternoon and evening.
206 AM EDT Fri Sep 19 2025 High pressure will maintain warm and mostly-dry weather into the weekend. KEY MESSAGES: - Dry weather continues - Isolated valley fog is possible this morning --------------------------------------------------------------- With a lot of dry air in the lower levels relative to recent days, most locations should remain fog free outside of a few isolated spots along area rivers this morning looking at current dewpoint depressions. KEY MESSAGES: - Dry weather continues to end the work week - A weak front brings slightly cooler temperatures -------------------------------------------------------------- The set up on Friday will feature high pressure still in control within developing northwest flow across the area. Ensembles continue to show the high center positioned to the north into the Great Lakes shifting southeast into the England area. 01 or more with this weak trough on Saturday.
1102 PM EDT Thu Sep 18 2025 - A little cooler Friday and Saturday, then a chance for showers Saturday night.
Warmer than normal temperatures will continue through the weekend along with isolated showers and thunderstorms. Southeasterly flow will prevail in the low levels this weekend, bringing a deeper layer of Gulf moisture into SE Texas. With the plume of moisture coming from the south, expect the coastal areas up to the Houston Metro to experience the higher chances of rain to start.
With it comes the chance for showers, thunderstorms, and cooler temperatures.
454 AM EDT Fri Sep 19 2025 Warm and mostly dry weather prevails into the weekend under high pressure. A high pressure system will continue to provide dry weather today and tonight. With some low level dry air in the soundings, particuarly along the I-64 corridor, lowered afternoon dewpoints to the lower end of guidance. We also have upper level ridging which will also keep us somewhat settled for the day.
Radar continues to show returns popping over northern and east-central Wisconsin this afternoon where instability has been allowed to build in the vicinity of a cold front. Low-level moisture likewise continues to stream north of the frontal boundary as a deformation zone associated with low pressure over South Dakota takes residence over western Wisconsin. Better chances for rain/storms then arrive Friday afternoon as an upper trough interacts with a moisture corridor of PWATs around 175 to 200% of normal. Brief periods of moderate to heavy rain will thus be possible Friday afternoon and evening as the cold front sinks south, especially if/where showers train over the same area.
So the high pops continue. Upper low is in northwest SD with a 500 mb vort in western Missouri. Isolated thunderstorms possible as well, but with main upper low forecast to drop more southeast thru today and tonight feel conditions less favorable for any funnels. 500 mb low and trough remains over Minnesota and eastern ND Saturday but mositure feed is much less into the system.
547 AM EDT Fri Sep 19 2025 High pressure will extend over the area through Saturday. A weak back-door cold front will slide south through the area late Saturday and Saturday night.
Last nights 00z KKEY sounding did still measure over 2 inches of PWAT, but in the lower levels dry air was present which is helping with the limiting of shower development seen across the island chain overnight. Rain chances have decreased back to near normal for this time of year, as high pressure builds in across the Eastern Seaboard resulting in our more typical light to gentle easterly breezes. From synopsis, as drier air pushes across the Keys today and high pressure builds across the Eastern Seaboard, drier conditions, coupled with light to gentle northeast to east breezes, are expected for Friday through the weekend.
An isolated sponger storm mat develop near a cold front across southwest Nebraska late this afternoon or early evening.
713 AM EDT Fri Sep 19 2025 High pressure will maintain warm and mostly-dry weather into the weekend. KEY MESSAGES: - Dry weather continues - Isolated valley fog possible this morning --------------------------------------------------------------- With a lot of dry air in the lower levels relative to recent days, most locations should remain fog free outside of a few isolated spots along area rivers this morning looking at current dewpoint depressions. - A weak front brings slightly cooler temperatures -------------------------------------------------------------- Friday night will feature normal or just above normal temperatures again with the potential of fog development, mainly in the river valleys. Ensembles continue to show the high center positioned to the north into the Great Lakes shifting southeast into the New England area.
A deeper trough moving in from the Gulf of Alaska will bring a cool-down and increasing rain chances late in the weekend.
Issued 412 AM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025 Today through Saturday: Persistent warm air advection aloft is expected today through Saturday as an upper level trough sits over the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest. Could see some pokes of sunshine today to allow temps to push 80 away from Lake Michigan (with cooler temps near the lake). It will be a bit cooler across southern Wisconsin Saturday due to the clouds and precip chances, though highs in the low to mid 70s will still be near to a little above normal.
908 AM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025 - Showers remain in the forecast today, though by this afternoon, the highest chances will have shifted east of Highway 83.
Terrain based convection is the primary precipitation forecast for the afternoon today, but a some passing weak waves of energy may support showers and thunderstorms outside of the higher terrain where moisture is most abundant. During the afternoon on Saturday PoPs become more widespread, although still mostly over the higher terrain, as moisture advects northward through the CWA.
706 AM EDT Fri Sep 19 2025 (Today through Saturday) The forecast for today and Saturday is trending drier as a weak area of low pressure in the western Atlantic pushes off to the northeast and ushers in a slightly drier air mass behind it.
544 AM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025 (Today) Under mostly clear skies, temperatures have been able to fall into the low to mid 60s with a few locations in the valley dipping into the 50s. In terms of temperatures, today will unfortunately be plagued with the same above normal highs in the high 80s to mid 90s.
However, wind shear remains unfavorable and with dew points mixing into the lower 60s, instability levels aren't exactly impressive. A few low pressure systems moving through the region and deeper moisture pooled in the Deep South may actually yield some heavy rainfall potential before the week is over.
342 AM MDT Fri Sep 19 2025 - Warmer today, with thunderstorm chances returning to mainly the mountains/valleys south of Highway 60. - Warmer, near normal temperatures are expected for this weekend, with scattered showers and thunderstorms expected over and near the higher terrain, especially on Saturday.
553 AM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025 - Showers remain in the forecast today, though by this afternoon, the highest chances will have shifted east of Highway 83.
604 AM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025 An upper trough over the East Coast slowly moves off through the weekend. Another upper trough develops over the Lower Mississippi River Valley over the weekend, then moves slowly east over the Southeast in the coming week. 5" or a bit higher) working with a weakness in the upper ridging will allow isolated afternoon convection to form over the Southeast.
621 AM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025 - High temperatures should hold steady in the low 90s through the forecast period.
155 PM EDT Fri Sep 19 2025 High pressure will extend over the area through Saturday. A weak back-door cold front will slide south through the area late Saturday and Saturday night.
1233 PM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025 - Showers remain in the forecast today, though by this afternoon, the highest chances will have shifted east of Highway 83.
1218 PM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025 An upper trough over the East Coast slowly moves off through the weekend. Another upper trough develops over the Lower Mississippi River Valley over the weekend, then moves slowly east over the Southeast in the coming week. 5" or a bit higher) working with a weakness in the upper ridging will allow isolated afternoon convection to form over the Southeast.
Adjusted POPs a bit for current radar trends as areas of rain and showers continue to rotate up from the south as low pressure continues to our southwest. So the high pops continue. Upper low is in northwest SD with a 500 mb vort in western Missouri. Isolated thunderstorms possible as well, but with main upper low forecast to drop more southeast thru today and tonight feel conditions less favorable for any funnels. 500 mb low and trough remains over Minnesota and eastern ND Saturday but moisture feed is much less into the system.
1251 PM MDT Fri Sep 19 2025 - Dry and warmer weather will prevail for this upcoming weekend. Thus, resulting in warmer and drier weather for the upcoming weekend. A much warmer and drier weekend, around 7-10 degrees warmer compared to the last several days, is on tap as the aformentioned upper low continues to push east. The upper-level pattern will transition to more of a northwest flow regime as a deep trough pushes into the PAC NW with a cold front out in front.
As this low pressure continues to meander north- northeastward, a dry slot should temporarily suppress some cloud cover and PoPs gradually from southeast to northwest overnight. As we enter this weekend, the troughing pattern zonally elongates. Residual lobes of vorticity look to dance around the broader troughing pattern through at least Saturday afternoon which will once again produce another round of diurnal precip.
- Most locations will be rain free for the weekend, but there will be isolated to scattered showers and storms especially over the higher terrain. The upper ridge that has been over our area will be pushed off to our northeast by a short wave trough Saturday. Will keep the low probability wording in the HWO for Saturday.
1255 PM EDT Fri Sep 19 2025 Warm and mostly dry weather prevails into the weekend under high pressure. High pressure and an upper level ridge will sustain dry conditions across the area throughout the day, with relative humidity values lowering into the 25 to 35 percent range across most of the area this afternoon and evening. On Saturday, a frontal boundary hovers to the north while a low pressure system ambles towards the Great Lakes along the US/Canada border.
135 PM EDT Fri Sep 19 2025 High pressure gives way to a backdoor front for Saturday.
Temperatures warm up this weekend as whatever is left of Mario moves west and is absorbed a cutoff low in the Pacific and a ridge builds into the area.
(Rest of today through Saturday) The upper ridging is beginning to break down with a cluster of showers and storms around the Tennessee/Arkansas border this morning.
- The weekend looks to get off to a dry start with warmer temperatures returning.
CAMs have most of this activity wrapping around the low centered to our south into this evening. UPDATE Adjusted POPs a bit for current radar trends as areas of rain and showers continue to rotate up from the south as low pressure continues to our southwest. So the high pops continue. Upper low is in northwest SD with a 500 mb vort in western Missouri. Isolated thunderstorms possible as well, but with main upper low forecast to drop more southeast thru today and tonight feel conditions less favorable for any funnels. 500 mb low and trough remains over Minnesota and eastern ND Saturday but moisture feed is much less into the system.
141 PM EDT Fri Sep 19 2025 High pressure will extend over the area through Saturday. A weak back-door cold front will slide south through the area late Saturday and Saturday night.
240 PM EDT Fri Sep 19 2025 High pressure remains in control of our weather through the weekend, with dry and mostly clear conditions expected. The upper level ridge breaks down by early to mid week, bringing increasing chance for showers and plenty of clouds to the region. Skies are clearing this afternoon and evening as a dry cold front presses south through the region. A frost advisory remains in effect for northern Oneida County where confidence is currently highest in seeing overnight lows in the lower to mid-30s.
At the surface, low pressure is analyzed over the eastern Dakotas and western Minnesota, with an associated stalled front extending out from it into MN and southern WI and another cold front extending into IA.
Currently the upper level low sits on the South Dakota and Nebraska border. A weaker upper level low sits just north of North Dakota in southern Canada. Very weak flow over the Northern Plains is a result of sitting between two low pressure systems. To the west a flat ridge is through Montana, pushing the southern low east. The southern low is stacked, so at the surface the low is in southeast South Dakota. Rain bands wrapping around the low continue from this morning. As the low pressure slowly slides east, so will the rain this evening. Scattered rain showers could then continue from Valley City east through Saturday when the low pressure reaches Wisconsin. With the ridge building in from the west, this weekend will be dry weather.
207 PM EDT Fri Sep 19 2025 Drier air will remain in place across the area through the weekend with an upper trough to the west of the state and high pressure ridging down the state at the surface.
257 PM EDT Fri Sep 19 2025 Warm and dry weather will continue into the weekend as high pressure builds in.
132 PM PDT Fri Sep 19 2025 Isolated thunderstorms off the San Bernardino Mountains and High Deserts today before drier and warmer weather into Saturday.
Current water vapor imagery and RAP analysis indicate modest northwest flow aloft on the heels of a weak mid/upper trough situated over the northern Missouri River Valley.
Upper low over southeastern South Dakota slowly moving east- southeast with one wave rotating around it over central Nebraska sparking showers and thunderstorms ahead of it. The wave's exit late tonight into Saturday morning should lead to decreasing precipitation with slightly cooler temperatures.
Updated at 106 PM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025 - Isolated to widely scattered shower and thunderstorm chances continue today and tomorrow, mainly in Southeast New Mexico and in/around the higher terrain (10-30%).
(Rest of Today and Tonight) Satellite imagery shows a low pressure system spinning across the Dakotas with a cold front draped to its south across the Southern Plains. It will be another mild night with overnight lows only dropping down into the low to mid 60s.
An upper trough spinning over the Northern Plains will slowly work into the Upper Mississippi Valley this weekend.
200 PM EDT Fri Sep 19 2025 Outside of a few isolated showers this afternoon and Saturday, the area remains generally dry as high pressure builds over the area this weekend.
Another day of dry conditions across the PacNW as broad, flat upper level ridging has moved overhead. Tonight through tomorrow morning: Dry conditions with light winds will prevail into early tomorrow as a a weak ridge of high pressure continues to push east. The upper ridge will continue to promote a slight warming trend through tomorrow, with temperatures rising back into the mid to upper 80s in the lower elevations today and lingering into Saturday.
Otherwise, hot and dry conditions will continue for the rest of the CWA with temperatures rising into the low and middle 90s.
This will keep areas near Lake Superior cooler with generally cooler highs this afternoon in the upper 50s to upper 60s. Meanwhile another trough makes landfall over the PAC NW on Sun. From there, high pressure builds in with diminishing cyclonic flow aloft bringing back drier weather for the mid to late portion of the work week. Confidence in the fcst rapidly breaks down at this point as the aforementioned trough making landfall over the PAC NW on Sun is not resolved well beyond Wed. A ridge looks to build in over the W in the trough's wake, traversing E toward the Canadian Prairie late week. How that feature gets affected by a closed low developing somewhere over the Central U. Upper level low over the northern Plains maintains mostly cloudy skies over the U.
Satellite image shows a broad weak upper low just to our south and this will be a play maker once again today with respect to showers and isolated thunderstorms. Steering winds this afternoon and evening will be from the east, and it's possible a few of these storms could drift off the higher terrain into portions of Jackson and southern Josephine County. Steering flow suggest a few of these storms could push off the higher terrain into portions of Jackson county between 23-03z, but we do not expect them to impact the Medford Terminal.
Surface analysis places a quasistationary front attached to an area of low pressure off of Nova Scotia now trekking eastward, with a modified continental airmass overshadowing the Florida Peninsula owed to high pressure parked over the Carolinas. The best chances for measurable rainfall appear to be from any possible cumulus cloud line that may form along portions of the Lower and Middle Keys, as well as any convection over South Florida nudging southwestward. From synopsis, as drier air continues to push across the Keys this afternoon and high pressure builds across the Eastern Seaboard, drier conditions, coupled with light to gentle northeast to east breezes, are expected for Friday through the weekend.
147 PM EDT Fri Sep 19 2025 Behind a departing cold front, cooler and drier weather will build into the region for tonight. With high pressure in control, it will remain mostly clear through the weekend, with cool overnights and comfortable afternoons. A cold front has passed through the forecast area and is dropping southward across the northern mid Atlantic States. Have leaned towards the lower end of the blended guidance for tonight, with overnight lows in the upper 20s to mid 30s across the southern Adirondacks. Over the weekend, the high pressure area will slowly drift across the North Country and into New England. Daytime temps will be a little cooler than recent days, but still very comfortable in the 60s to near 70 on Saturday.
Upper low centered over eastern SD will move slowly into southern MN tonight.
High clouds from a low pressure system in CA continue to stream into the area this morning. Storms will generally develop south of the Snake Plain over the higher terrain on Saturday afternoon.
1204 PM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025 (Rest of Today and Tonight) Satellite imagery shows a low pressure system spinning across the Dakotas with a cold front draped to its south across the Southern Plains. It will be another mild night with overnight lows only dropping down into the low to mid 60s.
Previous Discussion: Satellite imagery shows a low pressure system spinning across the Dakotas with a cold front draped to its south across the Southern Plains. It will be another mild night with overnight lows only dropping down into the low to mid 60s.
Warmer than normal temperatures are still expected areawide.