Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Synoptically speaking, we'll be situated beneath the influence of elongated upper ridge extending from the Four Corners region eastward along the I-40 corridor from Texas into Tennessee, while broad upper troughing remains to our north and Hurricane Debby meandering about to our south. A majority of guidance has some isolated showers developing over the Appalachians this afternoon due to some upslope component to the low level flow on the north side of the circulation of Debby. Did leave some slight chances in the mountains but tend to think even this is somewhat overdone though as we remain more under control of the upper ridge.
* Hot Monday and Tuesday with highs in the low to mid 90s. Broad upper ridging will continue to spread east over the Mississippi Valley, allowing for continued clear skies and dry conditions.
1246 AM CDT Mon Aug 5 2024 (Tonight through Monday night) Key Message: - Generally Moderate risk of heat-related impacts over the Coastal Plains, increasing to Major over the Rio Grande Plains Monday - Increasing swell periods to around 10 seconds brings uncertainty to beach conditions Monday into Tuesday An inverted mid-level trough this afternoon has initiated convection over the Hill Country. A weak closed mid-level low appears to develop over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico Monday from the aforementioned inverted trough.
1145 PM CDT Sun Aug 4 2024 - Hot and humid conditions continue through Tuesday, with the highest heat indices being near 100 degrees Monday afternoon.
Heat remains the dominant headline in the short term as strong high pressure anchors to the southwestern US. Afternoon high temperatures will climb 5 to 8 degrees above normal again the next couple afternoons, resulting in widespread high to extreme heat risk, particularly across the lower elevation desert valleys. However, a fairly expansive complex of storms developed across central and southern Arizona earlier this evening, and westerly propagating outflow from this complex has worked into southern San Bernardino County and the lower reaches of the Colorado River Valley.
The high precipitable water values (around 150 percent of normal) will favor rain reaching the ground. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Given the high cloud bases with Monday thunderstorms confidence remains high for VFR conditions.
Upper level ridge starts to build closer to the area and this will allow temperatures to start to climb.
1227 AM CDT Mon Aug 5 2024 (Tonight through Monday night) Mid-level high pressure will remain centered over the Four Corners/Intermountain West region of the U.
Unfortunately though, this south-southwest breeze may only help bring in warmer air. As anticipated, satellite and RAP mesoanalysis this evening show the upper level ridge has expanded eastward atop the Plains. That ridge only strengthens tomorrow, leading to widespread triple digits for the area.
1227 AM CDT Mon Aug 5 2024 (This evening through Monday night) High pressure is building back in full force over the southern plains today and Monday which will leave the panhandles high and dry. Weak southerly winds will do us no favors by slowly moving in warmer air into the region as well.
/Issued 118 AM CDT Mon Aug 5 2024/ /Through Tuesday Afternoon/ High pressure, currently centered near the Four Corners region, will be extending our way through the next several days.
646 AM CDT Mon Aug 5 2024 (Monday through Tuesday) Stagnant weather will remain in place, as upper-level ridging slowly builds in to our west. However, it looks like the scope of the products may ebb and flow on a daily basis, based on the location of the ridge that day.
A few showers have moved over the Lower Keys, but measurable rainfall has been hard to come by.
438 AM CDT Mon Aug 5 2024 - Small chances for thunderstorms today with the passage of a cold front. - Drier and cooler summer conditions for mid week. Other development is possible along a backdoor cold front moving swwd from east central WI, but coverage should stay very minimal. The front will stall late today over far srn WI or nw IL as low pressure over the central Great Plains moves into wrn IA. Much cooler temps are expected for Tue via nely winds and lingering clouds and showers.
A strong ridge will keep afternoon highs above normal along with mostly light winds outside of storm development. High pressure continues to dominate the atmosphere across much of the Southwest.
623 AM CDT Mon Aug 5 2024 (Today through Tuesday) Today will reverse the trend back toward the warmer weather, although there will still be some mid-level moisture and a portion of the weak disturbance aloft over the area to allow for some scattered cumulus, mid, and high clouds, and maybe an isolated brief storm or two out west. The temperatures and heat indices are going to climb again to elevated levels Tuesday, but the temperatures and heat indices should for the most part fall just shy of Heat Advisory criteria while the stronger portion of the upper ridge remains more concentrated over NE TX and northward. That ridge maxima will be drifting our direction, but we see Tuesday being the a more typical hot August day in transition.
To our east, water vapor imagery showed an inverted trof near the Texas Big Bend. Tuesday: The above mentioned inverted trof will be moving into Sonora MX bringing increased dynamics aloft.
627 AM CDT Mon Aug 5 2024 (Today through Tuesday) Throughout the short term period, a mid-to-upper level high pressure extending from the southern West Coast to the southern Plains will continue to dominate Deep South Texas with very warm and dry conditions underneath mostly clear skies. At the surface, a high pressure over the southern Plains and western Gulf of Mexico will keep a light to gentle easterly to southeasterly moist onshore flow.
(Now through Tuesday) Mostly dry and hot conditions will continue through Tuesday as we are sandwiched between Hurricane Debby to our east and a rather large ridge to our west. However, with the drier air in place dewpoints will be able to mix out some keeping heat indices in the low triple digits.
636 AM CDT Mon Aug 5 2024 Today and Tonight: Dry through the period with slightly warmer temperatures leading to heat stress concerns again.
538 AM MDT Mon Aug 5 2024 - Slightly cooler (5-10F degrees) Monday with isolated thunderstorms along the higher terrain near the CO/WY border in the late afternoon.
A very broad and strong ridge lies lies centered on the Four-Corners region, stretching from offshore of California to the mouth of the Mississippi River. Meanwhile, a very high amplitude ridge sits over northwestern Canada, with a trough lying east to west along the US/Canadian border, separating the two ridges.
Morning sounding at JAN indicates an increase in low level moisture due to Hurricane Debby to the east which should limit mixing and hold dewpoints higher, in the low to mid 70s. /SAS/ Today and Tonight: Dry through the period with slightly warmer temperatures leading to heat stress concerns again.
Today will see similar temperatures with highs in the upper 90s to low 100s in the Valley, albeit 1-3 degrees F cooler than yesterday.
Hernandez Previous Discussion: /Through Tuesday Afternoon/ High pressure, currently centered near the Four Corners region, will be extending our way through the next several days.
323 AM MDT Mon Aug 5 2024 - Slightly cooler (5-10F degrees) Monday with isolated thunderstorms along the higher terrain near the CO/WY border in the late afternoon.
604 AM CDT Mon Aug 5 2024 (Today and tonight) The upper high currently centered over the Four Corners will begin its eastward extension today. The increase in heights and thicknesses will allow for most areas to see warmer high temps this afternoon than what was experienced yesterday. A surface lee trough will help to keep winds out of the south to southeast.
535 AM CDT Mon Aug 5 2024 (Today) Tranquil weather continues across the Tennessee Valley early this morning, with high pressure firmly in control. The aforementioned ridge of high pressure will keep landfalling Hurricane Debby in the Big Bend of Florida well southeast of the region. The end result will be another hot and rain-free day, with highs returning to the low to mid 90s.
Very warm and dry weather persists with broad troughing transitioning into zonal flow toward mid-week.
1214 PM CDT Mon Aug 5 2024 (The rest of today ) Broad upper level ridging extends from the Rocky Mountain region east into the central and southern plains this morning. A southerly component to the surface wind will be maintained with high pressure centered to the east.
An upper level ridge will continue to expand over the southern Plains over the next several days, keeping the hot temperatures and rain-free conditions. Unfortunately, the heat only goes up from here as the ridge strengthens tomorrow.
A mix of MVFR/LIFR conditions prevail along the coast, with the lower conditions occurring from Gold Beach southward and MVFR conditions north of Cape Blanco.
1242 PM CDT Mon Aug 5 2024 (Today through Tuesday) Upper low is in the process of cutting off from the base of the upper long wave trough. The upper low will move west to the west coast of Mexico. This process will allow the upper trough to lift out leaving Debby stranded over the SE. Once the upper trough lifts out, the high that fills behind will stop its NE motion causing it to slowly move back toward the Atlantic seaboard near Georgia for Tue.
1149 AM MDT Mon Aug 5 2024 - Slightly cooler (5-10F degrees) Monday with isolated thunderstorms along the higher terrain near the CO/WY border in the late afternoon.
The Excessive Heat Warning remains in effect through Tuesday evening for the areas expected to see the highest risk for heat related impacts and no changes have been made to the current headlines. The highest moisture will remain over Mohave County which will again be the focus for afternoon thunderstorm probabilities.
Our southwesterly wind field will be influenced by TS Debby as it meanders off the Southeast coast and pins the ridge axis extending from the North Atlantic to our south.
334 PM EDT Mon Aug 5 2024 A cold front will push south across the region Tuesday into Tuesday night, bringing a chance for showers and thunderstorms. Behind the front, a cooler and drier airmass will settle into the Ohio Valley through the end of the week. Will range highs from the upper 80s in the north to the low to mid 90s across the south. With dewpoints in the low to possibly mid 70s, heat indices in the 95 to 100 degree range will be possible Tuesday afternoon, especially across our south. These will be along and ahead of the low and mainly to the north of the boundary.
(This evening through Tuesday) A 500 mb ridge axis extending from the Four Corners eastward along the Oklahoma/Kansas state line will shift southward on its eastern taking a more northwest-southeast orientation and extending from the Four Corners across the Texas Panhandle to the Red River between Texas and Oklahoma. Increasing heights and thicknesses point to potential for high temperatures to be about 3-4 degrees warmer for most areas relative to today.
* Dry and Warm This Week: Dry, southwest flow will dominate across the region as the western extent of a high pressure ridge extends into the southern half of NV. Temperatures will be about 3 to 6 degrees above early August averages, with highs in the upper 90s-near 100 for the lower valleys and mid- upper 80s for Sierra communities. However, parts of northeast CA and northwest NV are projected to see a return of smoke/haze later today and again Tuesday afternoon with the Park Fire showing increased activity due to the warmer, drier and breezy conditions.
1243 PM CDT Mon Aug 5 2024 (Today through Tuesday) Today will reverse the trend back toward the warmer weather, although there will still be some mid-level moisture and a portion of the weak disturbance aloft over the area to allow for some scattered cumulus, mid, and high clouds, and maybe an isolated brief storm or two out west. The temperatures and heat indices are going to climb again to elevated levels Tuesday, but the temperatures and heat indices should for the most part fall just shy of Heat Advisory criteria while the stronger portion of the upper ridge remains more concentrated over NE TX and northward. That ridge maxima will be drifting our direction, but we see Tuesday being the a more typical hot August day in transition.
Meanwhile, the high wind and tornado threat have already started to wane, with only a few lingering concerns across the Nature Coast. A trough across the Great Lakes looks to finally usher Debby out of the are this weekend which would help to return us to a typical summertime pattern.
A low pressure system will slide into south central Canada by mid week causing the upper level flow to become westerly to northwesterly. The low pressure from Canada will drop into the upper Midwest by the latter part of the week. This movement of the low will allow for the ridge of high pressure to slowly strengthen over the western United States. This ridge will allow for a warming and drying trend through the weekend.
Lows tonight typically range from the lower to mid 70s inland to the upper 70s at the immediate coast. Although surface dewpoints will be trending a bit lower through Tuesday, the higher temperatures will result in heat index values of 108-110 across southeast Mississippi, portions of southwest Alabama and portions of the western Florida panhandle.
239 PM EDT Mon Aug 5 2024 A dying cold front over the Great Lakes will approach late today, then stall out in the vicinity of Pennsylvania Tuesday through the end of the week. Moisture return ahead of the associated cold front, combined with a belt of relatively strong mid level winds, supports the risk of organized strong convection across Northern PA during the afternoon and early evening hours. The associated surface cold front is progged to sag into the northern tier counties toward dawn, while the rest of the forecast area remains in a sultry air mass with min temps in the upper 60s to the lower 70s.
As of 19z GOES water vapor imagery shows quasi-zonal to northwesterly flow aloft over the region, on the northern periphery of a broad upper high stretching from the Four Corners to the southern Plains. Sfc analysis places a low pressure center in southeast SD, with a nearly stationary warm frontal boundary stretching east across northern IA and a cold front further west across central NE. Deep moisture pooling near and just behind the aforementioned warm front has pushed MLCAPE values to near or above 2000 J/kg, although capping between 850-700mb has prevented any CI in our cwa thus far. Cold front clears the area tonight with widespread cloud cover and cooler north winds in its wake.
(This evening through Tuesday night) High pressure continues to build across the southern plains for today and Tuesday. Under the relentless sun the winds will be weakly from the south which will push in warmer air to the panhandles. Both of these are going to cause the temperatures to continue to rise with the highs in the 90s to 100s today increasing to 100s for Tuesday.
(Through Tonight) Broad ridging remains over much of the Southern Plains this afternoon, with temperatures climbing into the upper 90s across eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas.
231 PM CDT Mon Aug 5 2024 - Slightly cooler tomorrow as a cold front pushes through Kansas.
315 PM EDT Mon Aug 5 2024 - Low chance for severe storms after midnight tonight - Dry and Cooler Second Half of the Week - Low chance for severe storms after midnight tonight Latest available guidance indicates we should see a weakening squall line moving southeastward across far southwest Lower MI, similar to what we observed this morning.
An area of weak High pressure moves under this ridging pattern over the Northern Plains. A little uncertain if the winds will die down long enough to allow fog to develop since the pressure gradient looks fairly tight as the high pressure moves in and the low moves away over the the Devils Lake Basin. The ridge moves out the Northern plains as an upper level low starts to drop south from Manitoba.
303 PM EDT Mon Aug 5 2024 A dying cold front over the Great Lakes will approach late today, then stall out in the vicinity of Pennsylvania Tuesday through the end of the week. Moisture return ahead of the associated cold front, combined with a belt of relatively strong mid level winds, supports the risk of organized strong convection across Northern PA through the early evening hours. The associated surface cold front is progged to sag into the northern tier counties toward dawn, while the rest of the forecast area remains in a sultry air mass with min temps in the upper 60s to low 70s.
222 PM MDT Mon Aug 5 2024 KEY MESSAGES: - A disturbance and cold front will push into the area Tuesday afternoon and evening bringing a slight risk for severe weather across the region. - Cooler than average temperatures rest of the week. This stationary front will lift northeast as a warm front tomorrow which will bring temperatures up about 15 degrees above today's readings with 80s to low 90s expected. Eventually the Low attached to this front located up in Canada will bring a cold front through the area during the afternoon and touch off a line of strong to severe thunderstorms that will move across the area during the afternoon and evening hours.
- Turning cooler into Tuesday, with considerable cloud cover holding back temperatures well below normal.
Highs tomorrow will be a degree or two warmer than today for most areas.
An upper level trough will move through on Tuesday, allowing temperatures to ease to near normal.
Rising heights associated with a 597 dam ridge located over the SW CONUS will bring hotter temperatures with maxTs in the low to mid 90s today and mid to upper 90s on Tuesday. Still, make sure to take extra precautions when outside and drink plenty of fluids as it will certainly still feel like your typical hot summer day! Patchy fog is also possible tonight as clear skies and calm winds will allow for minTs in the low 70s to reach the crossover temp.
* Hot today and Tuesday with highs in the low to mid 90s. Upper ridging holds over our region while a stronger belt of westerlies stays displaced to the north, and Debby spins across the SE CONUS. Tuesday brings rising heights and thicknesses which should allow for max Ts a degree or two warmer than today. As a result, expecting highs more solidly in the low to mid 90s on Tuesday. Peak heat indices will likely top out in the upper 90s and low 100s given similar dew points and temps a bit warmer.
(The rest of today ) Broad upper level ridging extends from the Rocky Mountain region east into the central and southern plains this morning. A southerly component to the surface wind will be maintained with high pressure centered to the east.
Should start to see some cu development by midday, but will do little to retard the strong heating underway as upper ridging anchored from the Srn Rockies E into the Mid-South region maintains strong subsidence over the area. 15 (Monday through Tuesday) Stagnant weather will remain in place, as upper-level ridging slowly builds in to our west. However, it looks like the scope of the products may ebb and flow on a daily basis, based on the location of the ridge that day.
A strong ridge will keep afternoon highs above normal along with mostly light winds outside of storm development. Northeast of the Rim and across the White Mountains region sunny skies were being observed but with such a strong high pressure system in place there is a bit of a stabilizing warm air cap in the mid levels. High pressure continues to dominate the atmosphere across much of the Southwest.
Upper level ridging is expected to expand further into Texas tonight and into tomorrow, increasing thicknesses, especially across our northern counties. With the expansion of the ridge, diurnal rain chances will be shut off for tomorrow. Highs will a couple degrees higher tomorrow as the 850 mb thermal ridge also expands across our northern and western counties. Areas further south will be in the mid 90s to 102 where ridging will be weaker and more cumulus development will be possible. Lows tonight will stay in the lower 70s with light winds expected to continue through the duration of the short-term forecast. (Tuesday night through next Monday) Very hot temperatures and dry conditions are expected this week as the upper level high moves over our area.
High pressure continues to dominate the weather pattern across the region, resulting in hot and relatively dry conditions. Currently, mid-cloud cover will continue to increase this afternoon as daytime heating causes mixing of the high dew point air near the surface. With decent mixing, dew points in the low to mid 70s have kept conditions warm but dry, with heat indices a tad below advisory levels.
A trailing cold front is drifting toward the I-94 corridor in lower MI. Thermal ridge over the southwestern CONUS will continue to drive an active northern stream, with expansive longwave troughing encompassing much of northeastern North America. acting as a blocking mechanism for the slowing / stalled Tropical Storm Debby over the southeastern CONUS.
Maintained the low chance of showers and storms over the Victoria Crossroads today, and again tomorrow as similar features remain in place as the mid-level low shifts further southwest into the Middle Texas Coast. Otherwise, the mid-level ridge to our north will continue to push southward and lead to a warming trend and rain-free conditions across South Texas. Highs on Tuesday will range from the lower 90s along the coast, to 100-103 over the Rio Grande Plains. Lows tonight and Tuesday night will continue to range from the mid 70s inland to the lower 80s along the coast.
- Cooler, highs in the 70 for much of this week. This is all a result from low pressure which is currently located over eastern SD trekking south- southeastward into northern Iowa over the next several hours. Considering today's environment, the high amount of bulk-shear will not take much to get storms rotating, meaning a tornado cannot be ruled out.
1213 PM CDT Mon Aug 5 2024 (Today and tonight) The upper high currently centered over the Four Corners will begin its eastward extension today. The increase in heights and thicknesses will allow for most areas to see warmer high temps this afternoon than what was experienced yesterday. A surface lee trough will help to keep winds out of the south to southeast.
300 PM MDT Mon Aug 5 2024 Cool and unsettled weather is expected this week as multiple waves of cooler air work their way into the area. Expect some unsettled weather with the arrival of the cooler air, with afternoon showers and thunderstorms expected each afternoon.
North to northeasterly upper level flow is responsible for this drier weather as Tennessee is sandwiched between the lower pressure associated with Hurricane Debby and a large ridge building over the central US.
(This evening through Tuesday Night) Little change is expected with the overall synoptic pattern over the next couple of days, as the upper ridging anchored from near the Four Corners Region E through the Mid-South should expand farther SE over the area tonight, with increased subsidence resulting in temps near of not slightly hotter than what was observed today. Despite the mostly clear sky and light winds, limited relief can be expected at night, with temps only falling into the lower to mid 70s.
North to northeasterly upper level flow is responsible for this drier weather as Tennessee is sandwiched between the lower pressure associated with Hurricane Debby and a large ridge building over the central US. VFR expected for the remainder of cycle with high pressure dominating the region.
Hot weather continues for inland areas as high pressure remains anchored over the desert southwest and southern Rockies.