Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
215 PM EDT Mon Oct 7 2024 Cooler and drier air settles in as high pressure builds in for much of the coming week. Discussion: The Canadian air mass following the earlier cold front is settling in and and providing a clear sky and stable airmass. Low temperatures are expected to be in the lower 40s towards the mountains and upper-40s/lower-50s towards the Piedmont. Key Messages: 1: Quiet and slightly cooler weather start this workweek A large dome of high pressure with a cool and dry Canadian airmass will sit overhead for this forecast period.
Upper level ridging will be in control of the area with a slight increase in thickness/heights overhead. This will induce surface cyclogenesis/pressure troughing in lee of the Rockies bringing south-southwest winds locally.
1209 PM CDT Mon Oct 7 2024 (Today through Tuesday) Through the short term upper level ridging will remain just to the west and trough and Hurricane Milton over the Gulf of Mexico.
These clouds may hold overnight lows up just a bit west of Tulsa, with very cool conditions expected as lows drop into the 40s in many areas, potentially some upper 30s in typically cooler spots. The idea of a dry cold front continues in most of the model data, however the spread on timing and strength remains substantial.
347 PM EDT Mon Oct 7 2024 A moisture-starved cold front will south of NC this evening. Canadian high pressure will follow and extend across the middle Atlantic through the rest of the week. Sfc analysis this afternoon depicted the cold front having just cleared KRDU (noted by a 4 degree dew point drop and nwly directional shift). ) High pressure anchored over AK/IL/KY will yield light nnely and cooler flow over central NC Tuesday. Highs will top out in the lower 70s (N) to mid 70s (S), as dew points struggle to reach the mid 50s Tuesday afternoon. The high will spread closer to overhead Tuesday night, setting up good radiational cooling potential.
However, continued northwest flow aloft due to the upper-level ridge axis being west of Wyoming will continue to send lofted smoke into the CWA. Subsidence under the ridge and westerly winds throughout much of the day will aid in the persistent dryness the area has seen over the last few weeks.
today, with the western CONUS upper ridge beginning to amplify as it trudges very slowly eastward this week. Meanwhile, low-amplitude perturbations are moving southeastward in the downstream troughing. The upper ridge to our west amplifies further as its axis inches eastward through the week. Eventually, two weather phenomena of interest will factor into the weekend forecast: (1) a deep trough entering the western U.
In dry airmass expect to see abundant sunshine with temperatures topping out from the upper 60s to the lower 70s. High pressure will continue to offer dry weather and slightly below normal temperatures Tuesday night.
1243 PM CDT Mon Oct 7 2024 (Today through Tuesday Night) Dry quiet weather will prevail across SE TX the next couple of days, with the main difference with today and tomorrow being cooler temper- atures. A building upper ridge over the western CONUS along with the approach of a backdoor cold front will make for favorable conditions for another warm/hot day today. Otherwise, we are still on track for the passage of a cold front (from the NE) overnight to- night. This cooler/drier air mass should usher in the return of fall (perhaps even actual fall if you will) on Tues. Highs this afternoon will range from the lower to mid 90s across the CWA. around 60 to the lower 60s across the southern half.
150 PM EDT Mon Oct 7 2024 A cold front is poised to move through tonight. That front will usher in a cooler and drier air mass for the remainder of the work week.
258 PM EDT Mon Oct 7 2024 (This afternoon through Tuesday) At a glance: - Clear and dry - Cooldown starts tomorrow At the time of writing of this AFD, a cold front is draped across the Atlanta Metro, working to efface our lingering unseasonably warm airmass. Expect cooler and drier -- and more Fall-like -- air to fill in behind it over the course of the next 36 hours as it completes its trek through north and central Georgia.
213 PM EDT Mon Oct 7 2024 A moisture-starved cold front will south of NC this evening. Canadian high pressure will follow and extend across the middle Atlantic through the rest of the week. Sfc analysis this afternoon depicted the cold front having just cleared KRDU (noted by a 4 degree dew point drop and nwly directional shift). ) High pressure anchored over AK/IL/KY will yield light nnely and cooler flow over central NC Tuesday. Highs will top out in the lower 70s (N) to mid 70s (S), as dew points struggle to reach the mid 50s Tuesday afternoon. The high will spread closer to overhead Tuesday night, setting up good radiational cooling potential.
A weak front pushed through the area this morning resulting in slightly cooler temperatures compared to previous days. The ridge begins to amplify and slide east beginning tomorrow, this quickly returns afternoon temperatures to the upper 80s and low 90s under sunny skies for the majority of the region.
A few clouds could generate off the axis of the upper ridge and may attempt to grow into a shower for areas in the northwest Panhandles today.
Drier and cooler conditions are expected with many areas seeing lows in the 40s to lower 50s tonight and highs in the lower to mid 70s on Tuesday. This Evening/Tonight Currently this afternoon, northwesterly flow is in place aloft with a cold front having pushed to our south. This is further illustrated by continued expansion of 1025mb high pressure from the north. Continued CAA from northerly winds behind the front will promote notably cooler conditions tonight and even lessened fog development. Tuesday On Tuesday, additional height falls are expected, along with further progression and expansion of high pressure.
1115 AM EDT Mon Oct 7 2024 * A cold front will pull eat of the region today, with cooler, drier air being ushered in on a breezy northwesterly wind.
1054 AM MDT Mon Oct 7 2024 Continued dry and unseasonably hot October weather is expected through the rest of the week as high pressure dominates the US Southwest weather pattern. Weak push of cooler air out of the east has moved in overnight, allowing for a subtle cool down today. Deterministic models are in good agreement that a stubborn upper high will remain fixed over Arizona/New Mexico through at least the next 7 days. There is some modest moisture stuck under this suppressive weather pattern, which should allow for some afternoon/evening cloud cover over the high elevations each day.
213 PM EDT Mon Oct 7 2024 Dry conditions and noticeably cooler temperatures are expected through much of the work week under the influence of high pressure. These should slowly begin to dissipate during the late afternoon and evening as temperature advection at 850mb goes neutral and as low-level ridging continues to build into the Upper Ohio Valley. Ridging will increase overnight, extending from Middle Mississippi Valley low pressure. KEY MESSAGES: - Continued dry weather and cooler temperatures.
/Issued 1240 PM CDT Mon Oct 7 2024/ /Through Tomorrow/ A weak cold front is now draped across North Texas, however, no major sensible weather changes are expected. Relative humidity values will dip into the lower 20% range tomorrow along and east of I-35.
(This evening through Tuesday night) A quick synoptic analysis shows an upper level trough draped across the Great Lakes and extreme northeastern US, Hurricane Milton in the Bay of Campeche and broad ridge across the remainder of the US. The CWA falls along the eastern periphery of the ridge, hence the above normal temps in place and clear skies. The trough has been and will continue to dig farther southeast through Tuesday. This will drive a west to east oriented cold front currently located over southern Oklahoma and central Arkansas south this evening.
Highs on Tuesday look for highs to be in the low to mid 80s inland, upper 80s along the I-10 corridor and mid 80s along the immediate coast.
1037 AM PDT Mon Oct 7 2024 Quiet weather is expected through the middle of the week as high pressure builds into the Pacific Northwest. Tonight through Monday night: The region will remain under southwest flow aloft on the western periphery of a ridge anchored over Central Montana. Afternoon highs will top out in the upper 60s to mid 70s briefly each afternoon which are 5-10 degrees warmer than averages this time.
The interaction between the high pressure to the north and Hurricane Milton to the southeast will keep surface winds predominately out of the north to northeast across Deep South Texas. High temperatures Tuesday look to reach the low to mid 90s.
(This evening through Tuesday) The heat continues across the region today with the warmest interior areas reaching up to 105 degrees while it will be slightly cooler near the coast. Cooling will spread inland overnight as the marine layer deepens and 500 mb height lower in response to troughing off of the West Coast. Look for overnight lows to dip into the low-to-mid 60's across the warmer inland spots and upper 50's to low 60's elsewhere. However, the higher elevations will remain warm in the mid 60's to mid 70's. It will also continue to be critically dry in the higher elevations once again overnight. Tomorrow will be noticeably cooler, but still above average for most interior locations. Thus, HeatRisk will be Low across much of the region with pockets of Moderate in the higher elevations.
1148 AM CDT Mon Oct 7 2024 (Today and tonight) Upper level high pressure will remain overhead today and tonight as will a deep dry air mass leading to a continuation of warm temperatures and fair weather. Slight weakening in the ridge with lower geopotential heights and thicknesses as well as a lack of an upslope component to surface winds should lead to high temperatures about three degrees cooler on average from yesterday's apart from the northwestern zones which were behind a weak cold front yesterday and will see a slight increase in temperatures today as winds come back around to the south.
Some very light precipitation may reach the ground (mainly in the higher elevations), but much of it won't.
High pressure and drier weather returns later in the week. A broad upper level low currently near James Bay will continue to slowly drift south over eastern Ontario and Quebec through the forecast period leading to a persistent cool west to northwest flow over the region.
All of this moisture combined with the lift provided by the low level circulation over the eastern Gulf noted on satellite will help to encourage showers and thunderstorms throughout today. This active pattern will remain in place over the next couple of days due to the very slow movement of the low level circulation.
1240 PM CDT Mon Oct 7 2024 (Today through Tuesday) This system should help continue to bring some very nice dry air down along with a cold front.
1123 AM EDT Mon Oct 7 2024 * A cold front will pull eat of the region today, with cooler air being ushered in on a breezy northwesterly wind.
230 PM CDT Mon Oct 7 2024 - Patchy frost is possible again tonight as high pressure centers of the area tonight. High pressure will drive the short term weather as it moves more over the area today. Dewpoints this afternoon have dropped into the low 30s to upper 20s as deep mixing brought drier air to the surface. This evening some rebound in Tds is expected, but are still expected to be in the low 30s overnight. Most guidance has lows some 10 degrees warmer than this. Tomorrow, temps in the 60s look likely as high pressure continues to affect the area. We will continue with NW flow as ridging eventually builds into the area.
(Tonight through Tuesday night) A dry and benign weather pattern will continue across South-Central Texas during the short term with mid-level ridging centered to our west and lower heights to our east across the Gulf of Mexico with some association with dangerous Category 5 Hurricane Milton.
1218 PM CDT Mon Oct 7 2024 - Cooler temperatures today and tomorrow. Sinking motions producing lower-level divergence in association with this anticyclone will inhibit cloud development (which is fostered by rising motions), keeping skies mostly clear throughout the day. Looking aloft, the GFS is showcasing upper-level (H500) ridging centered over the desert southwest. Due to our region being downstream of the ridge axis, upper-level convergence is occurring in the upper troposphere, which also aids in the weather pattern remaining tranquil. Overnight lows are expected to be near-normal with temperatures bottoming out in the mid to upper 40s with the exception of more urban areas which will be in the lower 50s tonight. As the aforementioned upper-level ridge axis progresses east, temperatures will increase steadily through the workweek.
Dry and unseasonably warm conditions will persist through the week as high pressure remains over the southwest. Temperatures are forecast to cool somewhat by the weekend, and breezier conditions will develop as a trough of low pressure approaches the western US. A very subtle cooling trend begins today as a weak system tries to break down this stubborn ridge.
(This evening through Tuesday Night) Benign weather conditions are expected to prevail for the next several days as high pressure and dry air dominates the local weather pattern. A weak cold front will push into the region from the NE overnight tonight, and although there will be no rain associated with the front, the lows will be dipping into the low to mid 60s over the Brazos Valley and Piney Woods region and in the upper 60s to low 70s elsewhere.
Increasing mid-level warm advection and associated moistening ahead of a mid-level trough approaching from the northwest may support a smattering of sprinkles and/or light showers later tonight through Tuesday morning across central, south-central, and southeast Kansas.
However, the lowest layers of the atmosphere are still really dry, so we are not expecting those clouds to produce enough precipitation to reach the ground, though virga may help generate some gusty winds in that areas.
(Tonight) A ridge extending from the lower central Plains through the Tennessee Valley is contributing to clear skies and dry conditions. A cold front came through the Tennessee Valley this morning, reinforcing clear skies, dry air, and bringing cooler temperatures to begin the work week.
Highs in the 70s early this week will warm into the lower 80s by this weekend.
As the ridge of high pressure shifts to the east, the marine layer will be allowed to deepen into Tuesday morning.
909 PM EDT Mon Oct 7 2024 Cooler and drier air settles in as high pressure builds in for much of the coming week. Otherwise, clear through the period with slightly cooler temperatures, especially at night. Discussion: The Canadian air mass following the earlier cold front is settling in and and providing a clear sky and stable airmass. Low temperatures are expected to be in the lower 40s towards the mountains and upper-40s/lower-50s towards the Piedmont. Key Messages: 1: Quiet and slightly cooler weather start this workweek A large dome of high pressure with a cool and dry Canadian airmass will sit overhead for this forecast period.
602 PM CDT Mon Oct 7 2024 - Patchy frost is possible again tonight as high pressure centers of the area tonight. High pressure will drive the short term weather as it moves more over the area today. Dewpoints this afternoon have dropped into the low 30s to upper 20s as deep mixing brought drier air to the surface. This evening some rebound in Tds is expected, but are still expected to be in the low 30s overnight. Most guidance has lows some 10 degrees warmer than this. Tomorrow, temps in the 60s look likely as high pressure continues to affect the area. We will continue with NW flow as ridging eventually builds into the area.
Mid evening surface analysis showed a dry cold front nearly along our I-59 corridor. This cold front will continue to push south through the night and usher in cooler and drier air into our CWA. Surface dew points were being observed in the 40s along the Highway 82 corridor and in the 50s just south of the I-20 corridor.
1026 PM EDT Mon Oct 7 2024 An upper level trough and cold pool aloft for the rest of the work week will support fall-like weather as morning lows drop into the 30s and 40s, and afternoon highs crest in the 50s and 60s.
812 PM MDT Mon Oct 7 2024 A broad upper level ridge remains centered over the interior western US with little or no clouds and dry conditions prevailing across the Northern Rockies and MT through tonight.
Upper air observation from the evening confirmed a deep layer of dry air in the low to mid levels of the troposphere, allowing for efficient cooling overnight into Tuesday morning. In dry airmass expect to see abundant sunshine with temperatures topping out from the upper 60s to the lower 70s. High pressure will continue to offer dry weather and slightly below normal temperatures Tuesday night.
740 PM EDT Mon Oct 7 2024 - Noticeably cooler and drier air will be in place across the area, making for rain free and comfortable early autumn conditions for much of this week.
Based on NBM's tendency to struggle with changing airmasses and the thermal extremes which dry air may allow us to achieve, trended 1-2 degrees cooler than guidance at area sites. With these considerations taken into account, lows now range from the lower 50s and perhaps a few upper 40s north to the upper 50s and lower 60s south. This, in combination with surface ridging, will keep temperatures near-to-above normal as a result under partly to mostly clear skies with maximums/minimums in the mid-to-upper 80s/mid-to-upper 50s respectively.
910 PM EDT Mon Oct 7 2024 Cooler and drier air settles in as high pressure builds in for much of the coming week. Otherwise, clear through the period with slightly cooler temperatures, especially at night. Discussion: The Canadian air mass following the earlier cold front is settling in and and providing a clear sky and stable airmass. Low temperatures are expected to be in the lower 40s towards the mountains and upper-40s/lower-50s towards the Piedmont. Key Messages: 1: Quiet and slightly cooler weather start this workweek A large dome of high pressure with a cool and dry Canadian airmass will sit overhead for this forecast period.
723 PM EDT Mon Oct 7 2024 * A cold front will pull eat of the region today, with cooler air being ushered in on a breezy northwesterly wind.
- Potential pattern shift and cooler conditions are possible by the weekend. A positively tilted ridge pushes back in Tuesday night and could shift flow northerly enough to shunt some of the wildfire smoke away from the northern portion of the CWA, including the Grand Valley.
609 PM CDT Mon Oct 7 2024 (This evening through Tuesday night) A quick synoptic analysis shows an upper level trough draped across the Great Lakes and extreme northeastern US, Hurricane Milton in the Bay of Campeche and broad ridge across the remainder of the US. The CWA falls along the eastern periphery of the ridge, hence the above normal temps in place and clear skies. The trough has been and will continue to dig farther southeast through Tuesday. This will drive a west to east oriented cold front currently located over southern Oklahoma and central Arkansas south this evening.
The weak cold front continues to push slowly southward this evening with little obvious evidence of its passage. 12 Previous Discussion: /Through Tomorrow/ A weak cold front is now draped across North Texas, however, no major sensible weather changes are expected. Relative humidity values will dip into the lower 20% range tomorrow along and east of I-35.
628 PM CDT Mon Oct 7 2024 (Tonight through Tuesday night) A dry and benign weather pattern will continue across South-Central Texas during the short term with mid-level ridging centered to our west and lower heights to our east across the Gulf of Mexico with some association with dangerous Category 5 Hurricane Milton.
631 PM CDT Mon Oct 7 2024 (This evening through Tuesday Night) Benign weather conditions are expected to prevail for the next several days as high pressure and dry air dominates the local weather pattern. A weak cold front will push into the region from the NE overnight tonight, and although there will be no rain associated with the front, the lows will be dipping into the low to mid 60s over the Brazos Valley and Piney Woods region and in the upper 60s to low 70s elsewhere.
641 PM CDT Mon Oct 7 2024 (Tonight) A ridge extending from the lower central Plains through the Tennessee Valley is contributing to clear skies and dry conditions. A cold front came through the Tennessee Valley this morning, reinforcing clear skies, dry air, and bringing cooler temperatures to begin the work week.
Today is on track to be the warmest day of the forecast period before a cooler and wetter pattern settles into the Pacific Northwest.
946 PM EDT Mon Oct 7 2024 Dry conditions and noticeably cooler temperatures are expected through much of the work week under the influence of high pressure. ------------------------------------------------------------------- Ridging will increase overnight, extending from Middle Mississippi Valley low pressure. KEY MESSAGES: - Continued dry weather and cooler temperatures.
943 PM EDT Mon Oct 7 2024 Dry conditions and noticeably cooler temperatures are expected through much of the work week under the influence of high pressure. Stratocumulus coverage has begun to dissipate with waning cold advection on the periphery of building high pressure. A crisp early October night Ridging will increase overnight, extending from Middle Mississippi Valley low pressure. KEY MESSAGES: - Continued dry weather and cooler temperatures.
547 PM EDT Mon Oct 7 2024 Dry conditions and noticeably cooler temperatures are expected through much of the work week under the influence of high pressure. Stratocumulus coverage has begun to dissipate with waning cold advection on the periphery of building high pressure. A crisp early October night Ridging will increase overnight, extending from Middle Mississippi Valley low pressure. KEY MESSAGES: - Continued dry weather and cooler temperatures.
today, with the western CONUS upper ridge beginning to amplify as it trudges very slowly eastward this week. Meanwhile, low-amplitude perturbations are moving southeastward in the downstream troughing. The upper ridge to our west amplifies further as its axis inches eastward through the week. Eventually, two weather phenomena of interest will factor into the weekend forecast: (1) a deep trough entering the western U. High pressure will conditions at the surface dry and winds light.
708 PM EDT Mon Oct 7 2024 A moisture-starved cold front will south of NC this evening. Canadian high pressure will follow and extend across the middle Atlantic through the rest of the week. Sfc analysis this afternoon depicted the cold front having just cleared KRDU (noted by a 4 degree dew point drop and nwly directional shift). ) High pressure anchored over AK/IL/KY will yield light nnely and cooler flow over central NC Tuesday. Highs will top out in the lower 70s (N) to mid 70s (S), as dew points struggle to reach the mid 50s Tuesday afternoon. The high will spread closer to overhead Tuesday night, setting up good radiational cooling potential.
High temperatures begin to trend downward today as high pressure weakens. As large scale synoptic ridging shifts eastward, the warmer dry local trend will get some relief by the way of milder temperatures and end of the week precipitation. With the exiting subsidence, gusty winds are expected as low pressure gradient builds up stream. Model winds in the 925mb heights show stout winds developing late tonight offshore and possibly on exposed ridges in southern coastal Mendocino and southeastern Lake counties.