Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
The advected layer precipitable water product indicated richer moisture in the lower to mid levels (850-700mb) compared to higher up (700-500mb), at least partially due to New Mexico convection driven outflows which made their way into southeastern Arizona early this morning. The upper level high to the east will continue to nudge west over the coming 24 hours, allowing for deeper moisture to eventually move in. 25 inches will be found across southeastern Arizona, with the higher side of that range near the New Mexico border and the low end around Tucson to Nogales.
Ensembles are beginning to showcase upper ridging returning to the region around the upcoming weekend with a slight uptick in temperatures.
The upper-level ridge responsible for the very hot/dry weather we have seen over the past couple of days will slowly retrograde to the west throughout the week. With dew points in the low to mid 70s (possibly upper 70s along the coast), heat indices will likely top out in the 105 to 112 degree range. We return back to a more typical summertime pattern through the remainder of the period as weak troughing digs into the eastern US, helping to keep our local area underneath a general weakness in the flow aloft.
(This afternoon through Tuesday) High pressure and upper-level ridging looks to keep a hold of the area today and tomorrow, leading to rather oppressive conditions with actual temps in the mid to upper 90s with heat indices north of 110 degrees. The highest heat index values will likely remain around the lakes and coast today and tomorrow as the water will help to keep dew point higher, thus keep heat indices elevated.
High temperatures today are forecast to warm into the upper 70s north to the lower 80s south. Overnight lows are forecast to drop down into the 50s to lower 60s as a weak cold front pushes through the region. Temperatures will cool a few degrees across the state into the lower 70s to lower 80s. The middle of this week a deep upper level trough will stall and deepen over the Hudson Bay while an upper level ridge will amplify over the Canadian Rockies. This will lead to slightly cooler temperatures across the state. The upper level ridge will begin to trek eastward leading to warming temperatures by the weekend. However this could change if the upper low digs further south or the ridge dampens.
1209 PM CDT Mon Jul 28 2025 An expansive upper ridge over the Gulf coast will briefly retrograde as it moves northwest over Arkansas.
131 PM EDT Mon Jul 28 2025 A dome of upper level ridging continues the stretch of hot and humid weather, with the daily downpour chance from afternoon showers and storms.
Another upper low could bring increased chances for thunderstorms by mid week. High pressure is expected to generally remain east of the area. Coastal stratus is expected to form each night during this time with the potential for some clearing into the afternoons with highs in the low to mid 60s along the coast.
Pattern change for the latter half of the week into the weekend with cooler and increasing coverage of showers and storms.
With the S/SW flow aloft continuing along the ridge, isolated to scattered thunderstorms will remain being our popular threat through tomorrow during afternoon and evening hours over central OR to the eastern mountains.
A ridge of high pressure over the southern CONUS will continue to retrograde westward through the week. Monsoonal moisture will swing clockwise around the high before surging up the Colorado River Valley mid-to-late week.
- Cooler temperatures and drier conditions mid week will provide relief from the hot and muggy weekend. The cap also is expected to weaken enough as the MCS moves across our south from a cold front moving south across the Northland. A brief period of smoke at the surface is possible behind the cold front today, which could lead to milky skies and hazy conditions. Once the cold front moves through, cooler and drier conditions will arrive for the mid week, and a high pressure will settle over the Upper Midwest. Some smoke also looks to push in from Canadian wildfires to our north on Tuesday behind the cold front.
The combination of slightly better moisture at the surface and marginally cooler temperatures aloft will result in greater instability today, which seemed to be the issue yesterday with respect to the potential for stronger thunderstorms. The overall pattern changes little through rest of the week and into the weekend with additional energy moving through the area and perhaps a stronger wave ejecting out of the west coast trough across the region by Fri/Sat.
For the rest of today, mainly drier and warmer conditions are anticipated compared to what we saw the past few days. Ridging, both in the low and upper levels, will dominate area wx for the next few days resulting in mainly dry and hot conditions into midweek. During the second part of the week (and like the previous couple weeks), the ridge slightly weakens and becomes repositioned whereas we'll start seeing some higher available moisture levels and mid-upper level impulses work their way in from the east. Fowler With high pressure and a weak pressure gradient in the vicinity, we should see a prevailing landbreeze/seabreeze circulation for much of the week.
Strong subsidence associated with ridging aloft will result in generally rain-free conditions and a gradual increase in temperatures heading into the weekend.
- Increased rain chances and cooler temperatures may return towards the end of the week. (Rest of today and tonight) Mid-level satellite water vapor imagery and 500mb RAP analysis reveals the upper ridge slowly retrograding westward through the morning towards the Southern Plains. The 598 dam ridge will bring widespread high temperatures this afternoon into the upper 90s to lower triple digits.
151 PM EDT Mon Jul 28 2025 - Hot/humid today, chance of storms late tonight - Cooler/less humid late week Based on satellite trends over Lake Michigan this morning, have added 20-40% POPs areawide to cover a somewhat building shower/thunderstorm threat. However, the combination of highs in the lower 90s and dewpoints around 70 still results in apparent temperatures around 100; a heat advisory was issued for the entire cwa from noon to 9 pm. In classic ridge-rider fashion, a weak impulse aloft will traverse from southeast Montana across the northern Plains and collide with increasing low level jet, resulting in rapid development of a nocturnal MCS.
Ridging will remain overnight, with any lingering shower or two decaying with the loss of diurnal instability. By Tuesday evening, ridge aloft shows some signs of suppression as troughing way to the north in Canada pinches southward.
Issued by National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 1222 PM CDT Mon Jul 28 2025 (This afternoon through Tuesday) High pressure and upper-level ridging looks to keep a hold of the area today and tomorrow, leading to rather oppressive conditions with actual temps in the mid to upper 90s with heat indices north of 110 degrees. The highest heat index values will likely remain around the lakes and coast today and tomorrow as the water will help to keep dew point higher, thus keep heat indices elevated.
- A cold front moves into the area on Tuesday, but heat index values will still likely climb up to 105 to 110 degrees across parts of the area Tuesday afternoon. - Scattered-widespread thunderstorm chances (30-70%) return to the area Tuesday evening-night along the cold front.
145 PM EDT Mon Jul 28 2025 Hot and humid weather is expected through Tuesday under high pressure.
Unlike yesterday, rain chances are near zero as ridging takes hold over the region.
206 PM EDT Mon Jul 28 2025 High pressure remains in control on Tuesday with warm conditions under mostly sunny skies.
An upper high over southeastern CONUS will gradually shift westward through Tuesday. Winds will weaken and shift to the southwest this evening through overnight as lee side troughing develops over southeastern CO. Winds will shift back to the south Tuesday afternoon as the lee side trough weakens and shifts slightly westward. Temperatures will continue to warm to the 90s for areas on the Caprock to lower 100s for areas off the Caprock due to height increases associated with the upper ridging. Subsidence from the upper high will keep conditions dry through Tuesday.
- Very hot conditions will continue the rest of today and Tuesday underneath high pressure ridge.
- Hot and dry conditions persist across the lower elevations, with smoke from regional wildfires bringing occasional hazy to smoky skies. High pressure is centered over the Southern Plains this afternoon, with a trough stationed along the West Coast. 75 inches across the higher terrain. Otherwise, skies will be mostly clear and conditions dry over the lower elevations. Localized critical fire weather conditions will be possible across the lower elevations during the afternoon, where a few gusts of 25-30 mph are possible.
- A cold front moves into the area on Tuesday, but heat index values will still likely climb as high as 100-109 degrees across parts of our area Tuesday afternoon. - Scattered-widespread thunderstorm chances (50-78%) return to the area Tuesday evening-night along the cold front.
For the lowlands, mostly dry conditions are expected.
629 PM CDT Mon Jul 28 2025 (This afternoon through Tuesday) High pressure and upper-level ridging looks to keep a hold of the area today and tomorrow, leading to rather oppressive conditions with actual temps in the mid to upper 90s with heat indices north of 110 degrees. The highest heat index values will likely remain around the lakes and coast today and tomorrow as the water will help to keep dew point higher, thus keep heat indices elevated.
Tucson east and south will see the highest chances for the daily rain showers and thunderstorms.
Onshore flow will continue through the week as an upper-level trough of low pressure remains anchored along the West Coast. Night through morning low clouds and fog will remain in the forecast for most coastal and valley locations, but the marine layer will thin some through midweek as high pressure aloft the southeastern United States builds west. Another very low impact weather day across southwest California as an upper level trough remains in place along the West Coast, anchored by an unusually cold and mostly stationary low pressure system along the BC coast.
713 PM CDT Mon Jul 28 2025 - Very hot conditions will continue Tuesday underneath a high pressure ridge.
For the rest of today, mainly drier and warmer conditions are anticipated compared to what we saw the past few days. Ridging, both in the low and upper levels, will dominate area wx for the next few days resulting in mainly dry and hot conditions into midweek. During the second part of the week (and like the previous couple weeks), the ridge slightly weakens and becomes repositioned whereas we'll start seeing some higher available moisture levels and mid-upper level impulses work their way in from the east. With high pressure and a weak pressure gradient in the vicinity, we should see a prevailing landbreeze/seabreeze circulation for much of the week.
A high pressure cell centered over the Central Gulf Coast will shift further westward towards the Texas Coast as lower pressure sets up along the Atlantic Coast. This will keep a split ridge pattern across Florida. The Atlantic ridge will make its way back across Florida beginning mid week.
We saw another day of record heat across the region today, and this is expected to continue tomorrow, with temperatures once again forecast in the mid to upper 90s, which combined with the high humidity will bring dangerous heat back across the area.
619 PM CDT Mon Jul 28 2025 The upper-level ridge responsible for the very hot/dry weather we have seen over the past couple of days will slowly retrograde to the west throughout the week. With dew points in the low to mid 70s (possibly upper 70s along the coast), heat indices will likely top out in the 105 to 112 degree range. We return back to a more typical summertime pattern through the remainder of the period as weak troughing digs into the eastern US, helping to keep our local area underneath a general weakness in the flow aloft.
- Cooler conditions return Wednesday into the weekend, with on and off rain chances, though chances are trending downward. Still, by 3 PM we had managed to warm into the lower to mid 90s in most locations, with dewpoints in the mid 70s to lower 80s leading to heat indices of 105 to 115. Then for Tuesday, we may have another similar situation with a morning outflow boundary tempering things, plus a cold front moving in later in the day, but still expect areas near and south of the boundary to see heat indices of 100-110 again. Eventually it'll push well south of the area with high pressure moving in behind.
- Cooler and less humid weather arrives late this week into this weekend. Local area will remain within the main theta-e/instability gradient on the northern fringes of a subtropical ridge through Wednesday. As has been the case recently there has been enough of a northward flex of the ridge to bring daily heat/humidity levels near advisory levels. Daily chances for widely scattered convection will also persist with the tropical airmass in place, and convectively induced impulses and associated sfc outflow boundaries topping the ridge. The result should be slightly cooler conditions and additional shower/storm chances associated with any convectively induced frontal waves.
- Cooler conditions and low shower and thunderstorm chances late this week through the weekend. (Today) Another hot and humid day is expected today as an upper ridge remains centered over the area.
-High pressure builds this Wednesday, returning quiet and cool weather through the end of the week. Midlevel closed low pressure over Hudson Bay begins to deepen and move southward this week. Daytime highs will be cooler compared to yesterday, with the warmest areas being near Saginaw Bay in the upper 80s. Surface cold front will be south of the CWA tonight allowing for cool overnight low temperatures. Mostly clear skies for radiational cooling processes will combine with cold air advecting from the north to drop temperatures into the low 60s and even upper 50s across the northwoods. Midlevel troughing pattern builds this Wednesday with its base directly over the CWA and remaining over the Great Lakes region through the end of the week.
Cooler conditions are then expected with a passing cold front mid-week. 850 temperatures will increase to around 20C today with high temperatures mostly in the lower 90s this afternoon outside of the highest terrain, marking the hottest day of the week. Dewpoint temperatures will once again reach into the low/mid 70s, which, combined with hot temperatures, will create oppressive heat indices near 100F for much of the region. Heat and any thunderstorms will diminish after sunset, though overnight lows will remain in the lower 70s for much of the region.
230 AM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025 - Cooler air from the overnight storms should keep peak heat indices in the 95 to 100 range this afternoon for areas along/north of I-80. - Another round of strong to severe storms are possible late tonight into Wednesday morning as a cold front moves into the area. - Pattern change mid to late week to usher in cooler, more seasonable and drier conditions. Rain cooled air should keep areas along/north of the I-80 corridor a tad cooler today with peak afternoon heat indices of 95-100. But this may bring some heavy rain and possible severe weather along the associated cold front push on Wed. Veering boundary layer profiles to the northeast Wed night to really begin the cooler temp draw, with lows by Thu morning in the lower 60s or even some upper 50s.
- High pressure will bring comfortable temperatures and humidity Wednesday night into the weekend. Temps & Humidity: It will be a little cooler today, with highs in the upper 70s and 80s. Northeast winds will usher in cooler and more comfortable weather tonight into Wednesday.
At the surface, an area of high pressure will slowly build in.
A broad lower level high is centered over the Plains, while very weak troughing is across our area. The surface through lower level Atlantic ridge will build westward over the next few days and dominate Keys weather through the remainder of the week. The Atlantic ridge will build westward across South Florida over the next few days.
Especially towards the end of the week when models are in general agreement that a lowly amplified ridge may approach the state. If so, this could result in at least a slight warming trend and the potential for ridge riding severe weather. Towards the end of the week with aforementioned ridging possible, highs may rebound back into the upper 70s to mid 80s, with lows increasing to the low 60s in some locations.
- Cooler and drier conditions come mid week through late week. Chances for showers and storms throughout our southern border continue to decrease as the cold front is not projected to be south of the area by morning. Northwest flow aloft will bring cooler and slightly less humid conditions than the past few days. For the late week, a Canadian high pressure will settle over the Northern Plains and smoke will move off to the east. Winds aloft will switch to the southwest on the back side of the high which will increase dewpoints into the 60s once again, though it won't be as hot. Winds are expected to be less than 15 kts and waves less than a foot for the next couple days as a high pressure approaches western Lake Superior. Temperatures will be cooler as well.
(Today through Wednesday night) As the ridge continues it's westward movement in the short term period, we should see heights decrease on Wednesday as high pressure concentrates over portions of central and west Texas. As high pressure become more cut off, a low pressure system is forecast to develop on the northern periphery of the high. Thunderstorms may have a difficult time sustaining into our area, after they move off the high terrain, without sufficient CAPE or surface moisture to pull in.
Cooler conditions are then expected with a passing cold front mid-week. Tuesday will likely be the hottest day of the week, with highs ranging from 90 to 95 outside of the higher terrain areas. These temperatures, when combined with dew points in the lower to mid 70s, should result in heat index values in the upper 90s, with many locations over 100. This trough, and its associated surface cold front, is progged to approach and cross the Upper Ohio Valley region Wednesday into Wednesday night.
An Extreme Heat Warning remains in effect for the lower elevations of the Grand Canyon through Wednesday evening, when temperatures look to gradually cool across northern Arizona.
- Cooler to near normal temperatures and dry weather is expected Wednesday through the rest of the week into the following weekend. Current satellite presentation reveals clear skies overhead the UP and Lake Superior under weak high pressure. Upstream, however, a perturbation moving through the northwestern periphery of the expansive central CONUS ridge will be the focal point for shower and thunderstorm development late tonight through Tuesday. Once the first wave passes, a diffuse cold front extending south from the Hudson may kick off some isolated convection during the afternoon/evening hours, mainly across the s-central. Otherwise, look for high temps tomorrow in the upper 70s to low 80s, cooling to the 50s tomorrow night as high pressure settles into the region behind the passing cold front.
Another upper low could bring increased chances for thunderstorms by mid week. High pressure is expected to generally remain east of the area. Coastal stratus is expected to form each night during this time with the potential for some clearing into the afternoons with highs in the low to mid 60s along the coast. Models indicate that an upper level low in the Gulf of Alaska will exert influence over Northwest California by Wednesday, increasing chances for isolated to scattered dry thunderstorms for Trinity, NE Humboldt, and interior Del Norte counties.
As this system becomes linear near and east of highway 81 the threat for larger hail decreases as wind becomes the highest threat.
Temperatures today have warmed into the mid 80s to lower 90, but drier air filtering in from the northwest, and a little bit of vertical mixing, has allowed for dew points 5-10 degrees cooler than previously forecast. High pressure builds in Wednesday and then stays there for several days, likely into the weekend.
- Very hot conditions will continue Tuesday and Wednesday underneath a high pressure ridge. - From Wednesday to the end of the week, increasing rain chances are expected as a weak trough arrives and lingers within an airmass of deep tropical moisture over the northern Gulf prompting a Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall.
145 AM EDT Tue Jul 29 2025 High pressure will remain draped across our region today while maintaining mainly dry weather and mid-summer heat and humidity.
217 AM EDT Tue Jul 29 2025 High pressure remains in control on Tuesday with warm conditions under mostly sunny skies; Heat Advisories are in effect for portions of the Southern Tier and Northeastern Pennsylvania.
Heading into Wednesday through the rest of the week, ridging builds in across the central Plains leading to a drying and warming trend and NBM PoPs fall below 20% with a return to more diurnal driven event.
Upper ridging will gradually loosen its grip on the region as we head through the rest of this week, with weak upper troughing impinging on the area by the weekend.
- Additional thunderstorms will develop along a slow-moving cold front tomorrow, bringing a risk of large hail, damaging winds, torrential rainfall, and frequent lightning. WAIT RELIEF IS ON THE WAY!! A cold front will move through the forecast area tomorrow, bringing more strong to (maybe) severe storms and more heavy rain. Depending on when the cold front moves through, southeastern IL may have another very sweltering day in store. The most important feature of this front is that it will usher in MUCH COOLER air.
- Look for cooler than normal temperatures through the week. This wave will induce modest height falls in our region and result in cooler temperatures today. Stay alert! Convection on Wednesday should be a step down from today as we undergo brief ridging behind tonight's wave. Temperatures will turn cooler than normal these next two days with highs mostly in the mid 70s to mid 80s.
- Pattern change mid to late week to usher in cooler, more seasonable and drier conditions. But this may bring some heavy rain and possible severe weather along the associated cold front push on Wed. Veering boundary layer profiles to the northeast Wed night to really begin the cooler temp draw, with lows by Thu morning in the lower 60s or even some upper 50s.
At the upper levels, a ridge of high pressure continues to dominate the SE US, while an upper level low that was over the Caribbean will move westward into the SW Gulf by Wednesday. Temperatures will remain slightly above normal the next two days with afternoon highs ranging from the lower 90s across the metro and mid to upper 90s over inland and SW FL.
1203 AM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025 An expansive upper ridge over the Gulf coast will briefly retrograde as it moves northwest over Arkansas.
233 AM EDT Tue Jul 29 2025 The large heat dome and stacked ridging continues from the Great Lakes into the Deep South with dangerously high heat index values again today locally and have issued an extreme heat warning for apparent Ts over 113 from around I-4 Nward today and 108+ in counties just S of there from noon to 7pm. Fairly weak high pressure will remain over the region with generally light winds and seas except near any thunderstorms that move over the water.