Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Cold front moves through Friday, with winds becoming northwest to north in the Big Country midday and in the Concho Valley and Heartland in the afternoon. (Friday night through next Thursday) A cold front with track south across West Central Texas later on Friday, bringing cooler temperatures and some gusty northerly winds to the area in its wake.
(Thursday through Friday) Southwest flow aloft ahead of a low to mid level trough across the Texas panhandle has allowed for increased instability across the ArkLaTex early this morning. An upper-trough swinging east across the desert southwest will allow for increasing height falls resulting in increased instability across the ArkLaTex throughout the day. Storms will be enhanced by diurnal heating through the afternoon but will be limited from becoming organized and widespread severe due to a lack of strong upper-level forcing as the upper-trough will remain displaced to the west across northern New Mexico into Colorado through this afternoon.
Tomorrow, there will be drier and warmer conditions as a mid- level ridge builds aloft with surface level easterly winds. Temperatures will be on the rise reaching highs in the mid 80s across a majority of South Florida, while keeping a few degrees cooler along the Atlantic coast.
121 PM EST Thu Mar 7 2024 Seasonable temperatures are on tap today before slightly warmer air builds into the Ohio Valley Friday.
- Lingering precip possible Friday evening as cooler air moves into the area. A broad, positively tilted, 500 mb trough sits across the southern Plains with southwesterly flow aloft into the Upper Great Lakes.
High pressure over the Pacific Northwest will hold steady through Friday morning with clear skies and patchy morning frost and fog.
50" has dropped area wide with the highest probabilities (50-70%) located in far northeast Iowa and southwest Wisconsin.
High pressure brings quieter weather over the next few days. yesterday we had a low pressure lurking off the coast generating showers and today the low pressure is well south with low clouds/breezy north winds in its wake. While generally drier conditions prevail this morning, there have been reports of drizzle given the low clouds and ample low level moisture. As noted below, do expect the low clouds to gradually clear by this afternoon leading to more sunshine today. (Today and tonight) Troughing departs to our east as high pressure begins building in from the eastern Pacific. Temperatures will remain a little cool, with highs ranging from the upper 50s along the coast to the lower 60s within the interior valleys.
With this low cloud deck, there remains a low chance for light snow through the afternoon.
(This evening through Friday) Fair weather tonight under retreating high pressure.
504 PM MST Thu Mar 7 2024 - Convectively driven snow showers will be possible today into Friday as a large trough moves through the area.
This erosion will probably continue through the night as high pressure continues to work into and center over North Dakota. Ensemble guidance continues to support the development of a robust upper level ridge building into the Dakotas over the coming days, bringing about a drier and warmer period of weather.
The associated cold front is expected to push through the area early Friday morning. The warm front that could increase the instability to our southwest more than likely will not reach central MO.
A slow moving disturbance will gradually pull away from the area through Friday, followed by high pressure this weekend.
High temperatures will be mild Friday, with highs in the mid to high 50s along the coast and in the low to mid 60s inland. The first of a series of storms arrive to the area on Friday night, strengthening southerly winds with gusts of up to 30 mph along the coast and up to 45 mph along ridges and exposed headlands, primarily in Humboldt in Del Norte counties.
809 PM EST Thu Mar 7 2024 A backdoor cold front will move through the area tonight, with high pressure ridging in from the northeast through Friday night.
Ensemble guidance continues to support the development of a robust upper level ridge building into the Dakotas over the coming days, bringing about a drier and warmer period of weather.
Not much change to previous forecast reasoning as weak high pressure continues to build into the region. Weak high pressure will continue to build in over the region through the rest of today with partly cloudy skies after a cloudy and foggy start to the day this morning. For the rest of Friday, heights will be on the rise and low-level winds increase out of the southeast ahead of our next cold front.
As we move into the day tomorrow, shower and thunderstorm activity is forecast increase as a cold front approaches the region.
430 PM MST Thu Mar 7 2024 Aviation Section Updated A ridge of high pressure is beginning to build in, which will help temperatures trend warmer into the weekend.
High pressure brings quieter weather over the next few days. (This evening through Friday) Lingering moisture and marginal instability led to fair weather cumulus clouds over the higher terrain this afternoon. Pretty quiet weather through the rest of the short term as high pressure currently offshore builds overhead tonight and Friday. Less cloud cover is expected tonight into Friday thanks to the building high pressure. Additionally, clearing skies and lighter winds will allow for chilly temperatures tonight, especially interior protect valleys with a few spots reaching the lower to mid 30s.
Isolated showers and storms will be possible this evening through the early morning hours of Friday as an upper level trough treks eastward through the Great Basin/Desert Southwest. On Friday the upper level trough should sweep across the Central/Southern Plains, draping a dryline & cold front across the region. ML CAPE ranges from 1000-2000 J/KG, with the highest instability present north of the I-10 corridor.
515 PM CST Thu Mar 7 2024 - High pressure will keep conditions a bit cool tonight and Friday.
619 PM EST Thu Mar 7 2024 (This evening through Friday) Fair weather tonight under retreating high pressure.
310 PM CST Thu Mar 7 2024 - High pressure will keep conditions a bit cool tonight and Friday.
857 PM CST Thu Mar 7 2024 - High pressure will keep conditions a bit cool tonight and Friday.
Friday will be drier and warmer before we head into a slightly more active pattern.
234 PM MST Thu Mar 7 2024 A ridge of high pressure is beginning to build in, which will help temperatures trend warmer into the weekend.
647 PM EST Thu Mar 7 2024 A backdoor cold front will move through the area tonight, with high pressure ridging in from the northeast through Friday night.
Once the fog dissipates, conditions for the day will remain warm and mostly dry for much of South FL a weak mid-level ridging builds over the peninsula. Overnight temperatures could range from the upper 60s near the interior to the lower 70s along the East Coast.
But sunshine Saturday afternoon along with lighter winds will make it feel a much warmer.
Overnight lows will remain in the 60's with daytime highs on Friday topping out in the low to mid 80's and further warming into the mid to upper 80's on Saturday ahead of the next cold front late Saturday.
Mean trof across the western US has a NWLY flow aloft over Arkansas, with several minor impulses rippling out to the northeast. As the low lifts, some areas of southeast Arkansas could see stronger convection late tomorrow afternoon into the evening, in addition to heavier amounts of precipitation.
Cold front moves through Friday, with winds becoming northwest to north in the Big Country midday and in the Concho Valley and Heartland in the afternoon.
1118 PM CST Thu Mar 7 2024 - High pressure will keep conditions a bit cool tonight and Friday.
From the panhandle low a cold front extends north to the Canada. Aloft, A long wave trough is over the western U. Thunderstorms are ongoing ahead of the surface boundaries and upper trough with SVR TS watches stretched from the TX hill country to SE KS. Tonight the upper trough and frontal boundary will continue east.
Shallow moisture depth has largely reduced overnight instability across the region as it becomes oriented westward nearer the mid level trough and corresponding colder temps aloft.
230 AM EST Fri Mar 8 2024 A backdoor cold front will move through the area tonight, with high pressure ridging in from the northeast through Friday. A low pressure system will move northeast across South Carolina and southeastern NC Saturday. the trailing cold front will push east across central NC Saturday night.
These features will drag a cold front across the PAH forecast area late Friday afternoon into Friday night. Thunderstorms will be possible across our entire area Friday night, and in just our eastern counties Saturday morning with the passage of the cold front. Rainfall totals today through Saturday are mostly in the half inch to around an inch range, with the higher amounts in southeast Missouri and southern Illinois.
1240 AM EST Fri Mar 8 2024 A backdoor cold front will move through the area tonight, with high pressure ridging in from the northeast through Friday. A low pressure system will move northeast across South Carolina and southeastern NC Saturday. the trailing cold front will push east across central NC Saturday night.
Temperatures are currently in the mid to upper 70s with dew points in the lower 70s keeping condition on the muggier side. Low level ridge will be gradually shifting east in response to an approaching cold front currently situated across the Mississippi and Red River Valleys.
Low pressure over northwest Ontario is draping a cold front over the Northland early this afternoon. A backdoor cold front moves into the area Friday night to create a colder air mass (down to -15 at 850 mb) over the Northland for Saturday, under northerly flow over Lake Superior. Even with these two consecutive, albeit weak, cold front today and again Friday PM, daytime high temperatures remain at or slightly above normal for early March. High pressure and mid-level ridging returns to the area late this weekend.
50" has dropped area wide with the highest probabilities (50-70%) located in far northeast Iowa and southwest Wisconsin. Resultant cold air advection on breezy northwest winds will keep temperatures on par with Friday's cooler, though still above normal, readings.
(Today and tonight) An upper level trough currently centered across the Desert Southwest will slowly approach West Central Texas overnight. As large scale lift overspreads the area with the approaching aforementioned upper level trough, expect an increase in activity. A cold front is forecast to track south across the area late this morning and into the afternoon hours. Expect gusty north winds and cooler temperatures behind the front. Highs will be in the low to mid 60s across the Big Country to the upper 60s to mid 70s elsewhere. Isolated to scattered showers are possible this afternoon, mainly across the Big Country, with the passage of the upper level trough.
(Today through Saturday night) Light rain has begun spreading into parts of western Middle Tennessee this morning ahead of an approaching upper level positive-tilt trough stretching from the upper Great Lakes into the southwest CONUS. As the trough shifts eastward through the Plains today, scattered showers will increase in coverage across our area with pops rising into the likely category. A thunderstorm or two is also possible due to weak MUCAPE, but bulk of thunderstorm activity will stay well to our south along a warm front across central MS/AL/GA. A brief lull in the rain is likely this evening before showers and storms increase in coverage again overnight as the main upper trough axis shifts across the region. As the upper trough passes over, a fairly strong cold front will shift through Middle Tennessee on Saturday morning.
Pleasant weather is anticipated today through much of Saturday as a positively tilted ridge of high pressure builds over the Northern Rockies. Saturday's highs are projected to be even warmer, ranging from the low to mid 50s for many lower elevations of west- central Montana and north- central Idaho. Changes are on the horizon as Saturday evening approaches, with the ridge being displaced eastward and a cold front advancing through the Northern Rockies.
Northwest flow ahead of a Pacific upper ridge will keep temps cold Friday, then rise to normal over the weekend as the ridge passes through.
High pressure will produce dry weather into Saturday night. Cold temperatures once again expected today with highs struggling to reach freezing in the lower valleys. Temperatures will rebound to near 40, still below normal, for Saturday as the center of the high moves east and we see a southerly flow return aloft.
With this low cloud deck, there remains a low chance for light snow through the afternoon. Friday and Saturday will be warm and dry as upper level ridging builds into the region. Overnight lows will be warmer as well with temperatures remaining in the 20s to low 30s for many areas.
Cloudy skies, periods of rain and northerly wind all point toward little rebound in temperatures today with many areas staying fairly steady in the lower to mid 40s. Overnight, at least partial clearing is suggested to develop into eastern Iowa in the wake of the departing trough.
256 AM CST Fri Mar 8 2024 - High pressure will keep conditions a bit cool today.
The associated cold front is expected to push through the area early Friday morning. The warm front that could increase the instability to our southwest more than likely will not reach central MO. The area will be near the inflection point of the departing upper trough and building upper ridge.
TFJ The colder air mass is moving away and warmer temperatures are already moving in from the south and southwest as the supporting ridge of upper-level high pressure begins to build into the western states. This trend toward warmer than average temperatures will continue and sustain itself over the next several days. By Saturday afternoon the upper-level ridge axis will move through eastern Montana. A tight gradient to a low pressure trough over Washington State and Oregon will increase cloudiness and chances for precipitation to the region, but it will be limited to the higher elevations of western and central Montana, and light precip amounts at that.
As we move into the day tomorrow, shower and thunderstorm activity is forecast increase as a cold front approaches the region. A cold front will move through the region by Saturday, resulting in mild high temperatures and chilly low temperatures.
935 PM MST Thu Mar 7 2024 - Convectively driven snow showers will be possible today into Friday as a large trough moves through the area.
Locally cooler temperatures are possible near the lakeshore and bay areas. Additionally, most short-range models (RAP-ext and HRRR- ext) show above freezing boundary layer temperatures sticking around later in the day, suggesting rain as the dominant precip type. Opted to remove any freezing rain from the forecast due to mid-level dry air and lack of an elevated warm layer.
- Cooler Friday into Saturday, then turning warmer. The models continue to trend toward lower storm-total liquid amounts of a quarter-inch or less with the highest values along the MO River into southwest IA. Any snow should melt on Friday as afternoon temperatures warm into the low to mid 40s. This weekend: A midlevel ridge is forecast to shift east from the Rockies into the northern and central Plains, which will support a warming trend.
520 AM CST Fri Mar 8 2024 - High pressure will keep conditions a bit cool today.
In the upper atmosphere, an upper level trough is traversing the forecast area with upper level ridging poised to build over the forecast area today and into the weekend. A band of mid level clouds associated with the upper trough was tracking from western into central ND. For today, as upper level ridging builds over the area we are expecting seasonably mild temperatures over southern portions of the CWA, especially in areas of little or no snow cover. After today and possibly Saturday, we should see warmer overnight lows in the north with better chances for reaching NBM forecast highs. Although by then we may get into the issues of melting snow and overnight fog/stratus, but we'll cross that bridge when we get to it.
538 AM CST Fri Mar 8 2024 (Today and tonight) An upper level trough currently centered across the Desert Southwest will slowly approach West Central Texas overnight. As large scale lift overspreads the area with the approaching aforementioned upper level trough, expect an increase in activity. A cold front is forecast to track south across the area late this morning and into the afternoon hours. Expect gusty north winds and cooler temperatures behind the front. Highs will be in the low to mid 60s across the Big Country to the upper 60s to mid 70s elsewhere. Isolated to scattered showers are possible this afternoon, mainly across the Big Country, with the passage of the upper level trough.
- Much cooler today with the snow ending by late morning to early afternoon with highs generally in the 30s.
Predawn temps ranged fm the mid 50s to the lower 60s. Another round of showers/scattered storms wl affect the FA this aftn and tngt, ahead of the main upper trof/assocd CDFNT to our west. Other than some small lingering rain chcs, acrs eastern sections of the FA early Sat, drier and cooler conds wl return for the weekend. Cannot rule out some sub-freezing temps in the valley areas of northern and western AR early Sun mrng.
Quiet and dry into the weekend with high pressure aloft. (Today and tonight) A transient, high amplitude ridge sets up over the region today, promoting absolutely wonderful weather to start the weekend.
- Cooler Friday then warming. Road and surface temperatures remain almost exclusively above freezing and will make accumulation difficult. Still, slick spots - especially on bridges - are possible for the morning commute. Any snow that does fall should melt this afternoon despite the cooler temperatures.
346 AM MST Fri Mar 8 2024 Warmer air will gradually move into Central Montana over the weekend, with afternoon highs climbing into the 40s and 50s in many areas.
Low temperatures in the low to mid 50s are expected for most areas. The weather pattern will remain supportive for continued active weather through the remainder of the day as the upper level trough and associated surface front push through the area.
Clear skies cover NorCal early this morning as high pressure aloft begins to move over the region.
Cooler and drier conditions arrive over the weekend.
Cooler temperatures today will give way to a rapid warming trend as high pressure takes hold over the weekend and early in the new week. A broad trough over the region will see another impulse push across the area today. Still some residual shower activity possible in the White Mountains Saturday afternoon, otherwise we should be starting a drying trend with high pressure building in from the west.
Thus far, the SE portion of the CWA have seen the highest rain amounts of generally around 0. Morning surface analysis depicts low pressure lifting northeast along baroclinic boundary through MO.
This still brings high confidence for well above freezing temperatures to be widespread by Saturday, which also means fog from snow melt cannot be ruled out.
Outside of a few lingering showers over the higher terrain, dry weather has prevailed overnight, though there certainly has been plenty of scattered to broken cloud cover. The high March sun angle will help mitigate any impacts over mountain passes, but do be prepared for some slick roads going into the overnight hours. A transitory ridge of high pressure will slide overhead on Saturday, allowing showers to dissipate over much of the region.
256 AM PST Fri Mar 8 2024 Dry and warmer for today and Saturday with Saturday high temperatures near average to slightly below average.
In the upper atmosphere, an upper level trough is traversing the forecast area with upper level ridging poised to build over the forecast area today and into the weekend. A band of mid level clouds associated with the upper trough was tracking from western into central ND. For today, as upper level ridging builds over the area we are expecting seasonably mild temperatures over southern portions of the CWA, especially in areas of little or no snow cover. After today and possibly Saturday, we should see warmer overnight lows in the north with better chances for reaching NBM forecast highs. Although by then we may get into the issues of melting snow and overnight fog/stratus, but we'll cross that bridge if/when we get to it.
Right now were not expecting high winds at the coast, but they could reach advisory levels in the Shasta Valley near Weed and over the ridges east of the Cascades. A wind advisory remains in effect for the Shasta Valley and we'll add one for ridges east of the Cascades. Precipitation amounts are not expected to be excessive, with the highest amounts at the south coast and coastal mountains in Curry and Josephine County.
- Falling temps through the day Friday as a cold front drops readings from the upper 40s this morning into the 30s by late afternoon. The near freezing temps across central NE has transitioned the rain into snow with the anticipation for this trend to continue southeast into portions of north central Kansas later this morning. High pressure settles into the area late tonight, calming winds and clearing skies as lows Saturday morning fall to the upper 20s. Influence from the cooler airmass sticks around Saturday resulting in highs in the low 50s.
Warmer air will gradually move into Central Montana over the weekend, with afternoon highs climbing into the 40s and 50s in many areas.
(This evening through Saturday) Cold front along a San Angelo.
1126 AM CST Fri Mar 8 2024 - High pressure will keep conditions a bit cool today.
Dry-slotting aloft has allowed for much of the precipitation to come to an end across our southwest half and this trend should quickly continue across our northeast half this evening even though the trough axis remains to our west. CAMS are indicating the possibility of some redevelopment along the true cold front coming into our western zones this evening and as the upper trough itself moves ovhd overnight, cannot rule out some isolated activity continuing overnight across mainly our far northern zones so held onto some small pops this evening across our region, ending from the southwest after midnight and ending early Saturday Morning across our extreme northeast. Cold front will usher in strong northwest winds and rapidly falling temperatures overnight but winds speeds should remain just below Wind Advisory criteria overnight.
1009 AM CST Fri Mar 8 2024 - High pressure will keep conditions a bit cool today.
(Thru Tonight) A smaller scale circulation aloft was located over southern OK this afternoon, embedded within a much larger NE-SW oriented upper trough, and was moving ENE. As the cold core moves over portions of E OK and NW AR that get some insolation this afternoon, some near surface based instability may be realized, despite the fact that the area is behind the cold front. Lacy (Tonight through Friday) Skies will clear on Saturday morning, but the cooler air moving into the region behind today's cold front will yield below average high temps in the 50s.
Windy conditions on the back side of the storm system will pull drier air into the area allowing skies to clear from west to east late tonight and allow temperatures to drop below freezing west of a line from Freeport, IL to Macomb, IL.
Temperatures are expected to peak above normal in the low to mid 80s. With an established mid-level ridge in place, conditions across South Florida will remain dry and warm tomorrow.
828 AM PST Fri Mar 8 2024 Quiet and dry into the weekend with high pressure aloft. (Today and tonight) A transient, high amplitude ridge sets up over the region today, promoting absolutely wonderful weather to start the weekend.