Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
An upper level low in British Columbia is dropping southeast into the Pacific Northwest. Wednesday this will bring cooler temperatures to the inland area and the coastal stratus may struggle to clear out. Highs in the interior are expected to only be in the low 70s while the coast may see highs only in the mid 50s.
806 PM EDT Tue May 21 2024 High pressure will shift offshore bringing warmer temperatures for the mid to late week period. A stalling cold front and passing disturbances aloft will bring rain chances starting Fri and continuing into the upcoming Memorial holiday weekend. HIgh pressure still to our north, bringing a dewpoint-suppressing NE wind (well, outside of the seabreeze, that is). The high will be retreating tonight leaving behind some light and variable winds and the stage seems set for a little fog, though vsby restrictions may only be limited to aviation, i.
(Rest of tonight) A 500-mb ridge (which was aligned across the TN Valley earlier this evening) will progress southeastward overnight, with WSW flow aloft predicted to increase into the 30-40 knot range by sunrise.
942 PM EDT Tue May 21 2024 High pressure will shift offshore bringing warmer temperatures for the mid to late week period. A stalling cold front and passing disturbances aloft will bring rain chances starting Fri and continuing into the upcoming Memorial holiday weekend. HIgh pressure still to our north, bringing a dewpoint-suppressing NE wind (well, outside of the seabreeze, that is). The high will be retreating tonight leaving behind some light and variable winds and the stage seems set for a little fog, though vsby restrictions may only be limited to aviation, i.
The center of the upper level ridge in place this morning has started to shift south of the region.
550 PM MDT Tue May 21 2024 - Much cooler temperatures with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms.
959 PM EDT Tue May 21 2024 Warm high pressure will persist across the region through the middle of the week with a few showers and storms possible each afternoon over the mountains.
An upper low is seen in GOES-West satellite imagery digging southward through British Columbia this afternoon. This system is ushering a cold front into the PacNW this afternoon with radar showing widespread rain occuring across Washington and northwest through north-central Oregon. Throughout the remainder of the afternoon and through tonight the center of the upper low will advance into south-central Washington and then into northeast Oregon by Wednesday afternoon. This transition will allow areas of rain and cooler air to spread into southwest Oregon but likely leaving most of the valleys south of the Umpqua Divide dry. High temperatures Wednesday will wind up 5-15 degrees cooler than today's, coolest across the Oregon Cascades and the east side. While temperatures will be cooler, the gusty northwest winds will be the main story that folks will likely talk about.
Temperatures are holding steady in the lower 80s with dew points in the lower to mid 70s. The Lower Keys did see an earlier reverse cloud line but it did not produce much activity and therefore did not do much to stabilize the atmosphere. A weak area of low pressure in the vicinity of the Bahamas will continue to decay as it slides northeastward in the North Atlantic.
As we go through the end of our work week we will see a stall cold front over north Florida.
Updated forecast to lower POPs north overnight with the current trends and to update hourly temperature grids due to the widespread area of rain-cooler air that has spread across much of the area.
426 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025 - Mainly dry, cooler, and less humid tonight into Tuesday. Initial cold front from last night has swept well S of the area today, leading to cooler, drier air and refreshing Nrly breezes. CAMs ignite scattered convection over the High Plains Tue aftn/eve, then try to move this activity eastward down I-80 after dark.
Pattern Synopsis: Seasonably impressive troughing currently digging over the Midwest will slide overhead tonight into Tuesday. The associated broad parent cyclone will gradually pivot from James Bay over Quebec during that time with the attendant diffuse cold front continuing to slide southeast of the CWA this evening and tonight. Otherwise, showers and storms will taper off later this evening and tonight as favorable forcing/support wanes and high pressure temporarily noses into the Great Lakes.
1000 PM EDT Mon Jun 30 2025 A warm and humid day today ahead of the next approaching cold front. Otherwise, warm frontal lift and associated higher PWATs are accompanying convection into the North Country this evening. A cold front/surface boundary will move through the forecast area Tuesday.
- An upper level ridge building in will provide hot and humid conditions.
600 PM MDT Mon Jun 30 2025 - Cooler and drier today. A broad upper ridge centered over the southern plains today will slowly move east through mid week as a trough digs into the southwest CONUS. Today and tonight will be dry with the slightly cooler and more stable air mass in place along with the ridge aloft. Tomorrow, CAMs show convection initiating along the lee trough from northeast Colorado to southeast Wyoming in the afternoon, helped by a weak disturbance topping the ridge.
We will see height falls overnight as upper troughing approaches from the west, which will keep the chance of weaker convection around through the night into early Tuesday. For Tuesday, a weak cold front will be approaching from the west and northwest, and while timing is still uncertain it may move into western portions of our area by the end of the day.
629 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025 - Scattered showers and thunderstorms today as a weak cold front moves into the area, with a limited severe weather threat.
644 PM EDT Mon Jun 30 2025 A cold front tracks through tonight into early Tuesday.
Given the high instability, some of these storms could quickly become strong to severe -- with localized gusty/damaging winds being the main concerns.
A cold front will move through the region tomorrow, bringing another round of rain and thunderstorms.
With an upper level low offshore of Southern-Central California, the effects of high pressure have become muted. A cutoff upper low will meander off the central CA coast tonight into Tuesday and will contribute to inland shower and thunderstorm activity. There may be at the least gusty outflow winds as the storms pulse stronger on the higher inland terrain. Hot, dry conditions continue to ease for the next few days as low pressure morphs the ridging regime.
For the overnight period, expect cooler and less humid conditions with lows in the 60s.
- Less humid Tuesday, then slowly trending warmer and more humid into the holiday weekend.
532 PM MDT Mon Jun 30 2025 - Convection to linger across the higher terrain and adjacent plains this evening, with the main threats being periods of heavy rain, gusty winds up to 45 mph, small hail and frequent lightning. - Daily shot of afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms, mainly tied to the higher terrain.
Expect nighttime temperatures to dip into the low to mid 70s across the area.
1017 PM EDT Mon Jun 30 2025 A cold front tracks through tonight into early Tuesday.
Ridging is now situated to our east, and on the southern periphery of this high, southeasterly flow in the mid and upper levels is allowing the remnants of Barry to work into northern Mexico. Afternoon highs should be a bit cooler due to increased cloud cover, mostly in the lower to middle 90s.
More showers and storms will develop Tuesday morning ahead of the mid level trough axis and surface cold front. Even with the upper support, the effective shear will be on the low side between 10 to 15 kts.
An area of weak mid-level high pressure is situated to our SE, over the Atlantic while a mid-level trough axis extends south over the Dakotas/Upper- Midwest. This trough axis looks to slightly deepen and push E through Tuesday. More scattered storms will develop Tuesday as the mid-level trough moves through the area. (Tuesday Night through next Monday) High pressure builds in from the W as the trough pushes off to the E, and a surface cold front sweeps through Tuesday night.
656 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025 - Scattered showers and storms will continue until a cold front makes passage tonight.
The 12z KSGF sounding measured slightly warmer air aloft and a substantial cap however plenty of moisture remains. A cold front was located from about Kansas City to Wichita and was moving southeast. Vis satellite was showing substantial breaks in the clouds with temps reaching the lower 80s. RAP analysis shows about 500-1500j/kg of ML CAPE across the area with the highest instability east of Springfield.
Data from the Key West evening radiosonde balloon indicated a very unstable atmosphere, with little convective inhibition but with significant dry pockets, especially in the lower troposphere. Broad low-level ridging will continue to rebuild over the North Atlantic and support gentle to moderate east to southeasterly breezes across Florida Keys coastal waters, veering to the southeast to south and modestly slackening throughout the week.
537 PM MDT Mon Jun 30 2025 - Afternoon showers and storms are expected each day with the best chances on the higher terrain. Currently there is a ridge of high pressure in place, so temperatures are running 5-10 degrees above normal. Convection has already initiated over the higher terrain, and expect some of that activity to move into the surrounding valleys through sunset. This should result in a slight uptick in afternoon convection with the highest chances occurring in the southern mountains. Low pressure over California and high pressure over the Gulf will keep deeper moisture moving into the CWA thanks to flow around these two features.
A cold front is located near Milwaukee extending southeast towards Kansas City, and it will slowly move east this afternoon and evening. A growing cumulus field is evident on visible satellite imagery; Additionally, temperatures are already in the low to mid 80s and dewpoints are in the low 70s. Additional storms will be possible later this evening after sunset along the cold front. July will start dry and seasonable as an upper level ridge expands across the Central Plains and moves eastward.
A few thunderstorms remain active this evening along the Idaho/Nevada border, associated with a deepening upper- level trough off the Pacific Northwest coast and an influx of midlevel moisture from the southwestern U.
High pressure aloft will maintain warm and dry conditions across the region early this week. As the high pressure weakens toward midweek, expect a return to near normal temperatures.
754 PM EDT Mon Jun 30 2025 A warm and humid day today ahead of the next approaching cold front. A warm front is across western NY this afternoon, and will continue to move northward through this evening. The combination of temperatures in the 80s and dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s has led to heat index values in the upper 80s to low 90s across western NY/south of the warm front this afternoon. Scattered showers and a few rumbles of thunder have been ongoing south of the warm front, across southwest NY. Showers and a few storms are possible as the warm front lifts through tonight. A cold front/surface boundary will move through the forecast area Tuesday.
- Greater coverage of precip is forecast for Tuesday ahead of a cold front.
Given very high dew points in the lower to middle 70s, won't totally rule out fog, but looks more likely to be low clouds at this point. A cold front was sliding southeast into the lower OH valley into the Ozarks and Red River Valley. Daytime heating will likely instigate development of thunderstorms along the cold front by midday in middle and southwest TN. High temperatures should reach the lower to middle 80s with dew points in the middle 70s once again.
641 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025 An unsettled pattern continues on Tuesday as the area remains in a northerly upper level flow pattern between a ridge to our west and upper low east of the Florida peninsula.
Expect widespread highs in the low to mid 90s across the interior valleys.
340 AM EDT Tue Jul 1 2025 - Less humid air arrives through the day with highs in the low to mid 80.
High temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s will be common with heat index values held in check, mostly below 95 degrees, by the lower dewpoint air filtering in behind the front.
The 12z KSGF sounding measured slightly warmer air aloft and a substantial cap however plenty of moisture remains. A cold front was located from about Kansas City to Wichita and was moving southeast. Vis satellite was showing substantial breaks in the clouds with temps reaching the lower 80s. RAP analysis shows about 500-1500j/kg of ML CAPE across the area with the highest instability east of Springfield. NBM suggests highs in the lower to middle 80s Tuesday and the middle to upper 80s on Wednesday.
With the ridge positioned just off to our east continued southeasterly flow will allow the remnants of Barry to work there way through Mexico.
(Today and tonight) Convection will continue to slowly push off to the south this morning as the weak cold front stalls south of the Red River. Overnight lows will be a little cooler Tuesday night, with most of the area in the upper 60s to low 70s.
In the upper levels, the TUTT low continues to meander east of Florida this morning, while broad ridging builds into the western Gulf. At the surface, a strong area of high pressure over the western Atlantic is ridging across central Florida this morning, but will slide south by tonight, setting up southwesterly low level flow that will hold through the remainder of the week. 7 day rain totals are forecast to be up to 7 inches (with the highest amounts along the coast), with locally higher amounts possible. High pressure ridging across the Tampa Bay today will shift south by tonight, with mainly southwest flow setting up Wednesday through the rest of the week.
Clouds were more sparse for Ventura and LA Counties, where highs reached the mid 60s to low 70s, in contrast with the cooler 50s for the Central Coast. As the low approaches through Wednesday expecting more marine layer clouds that extend further into the valleys and linger longer each day. A weak upper low currently over the Bay Area will slowly drift south Tuesday and Wednesday.
1220 AM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025 An unsettled pattern continues on Tuesday as the area remains in a northerly upper level flow pattern between a ridge to our west and upper low east of the Florida peninsula. High rain chances continue on Wednesday as a trough moves across the Great Lakes region and sends a weak front southward into the area. Coverage will remain diurnally driven with the highest coverage during the afternoon and early evening hours.
1249 AM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025 Updated at 1242 AM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025 - There is a low chance (less than 30 percent) of strong to severe thunderstorms along and north of the I-40 corridor this afternoon and evening ahead of a cold front. - There is another low chance of strong to severe thunderstorms over northeast Mississippi tomorrow afternoon as the cold front slowly advances southeast.
There will be a slight chance of isolated showers or thunderstorms through at least midweek along and south of the I- 10 corridor, but coverage and intensity of these storms will much less compared to the past several days as high pressure builds overhead. However, this high pressure building overhead will also lead to rising temperatures through the remainder of the week.
(Through tonight ) Low to medium shower and storm potential will persist into this evening as a weak cold front moves through the region.
246 AM MDT Tue Jul 1 2025 - Increasing moisture will keep afternoon showers and storms in the forecast each day, favoring the higher terrain initially, before spreading over adjacent valleys. A ridge of high pressure remains overhead, while a closed low spins off the coast of California. A little wave rounding the ridge has contributed to lingering clouds and even a few light showers as well. With the expected uptick in afternoon clouds and convection, temperatures will run a couple degrees cooler today, though still 3-5 degrees above normal. By tomorrow morning, the low to our west will have moved onshore, nudging the ridge slightly to the east. Low pressure over California and high pressure over the Gulf will keep deeper moisture moving into the CWA thanks to flow around these two features.
A broad upper ridge centered over the southern plains today will slowly move east through mid week as a trough digs into the southwest CONUS. Today and tonight will be dry with the slightly cooler and more stable air mass in place along with the ridge aloft. Tomorrow, CAMs show convection initiating along the lee trough from northeast Colorado to southeast Wyoming in the afternoon, helped by a weak disturbance topping the ridge. The upper ridge briefly amplifies into the northern plains on Wednesday, with a broad southerly flow at the surface. With the strengthening ridge and dry conditions temperatures will warm into the low to mid 90s.
Ridging aloft will gradually intensify through the middle of the week after a weak, meandering frontal boundary keeps some lingering rain chances through tomorrow.
Showers and thunderstorms expected ahead of a cold front today. At this time, the most probable frontal passage is around 21z to 03z which will be when the highest chances of thunderstorms is expected area-wide.
Additional showers and thunderstorms can be expected through Tuesday afternoon with the highest chances being across the Rio Grande Plains and Brush Country.
High pressure follows the CAA regime and holds highs in the 80s for another day. Its upper air reflection in the form of a ridge will be building over the High Plains, keeping us in northwest flow for the next several days. The MCS will drop south and east through the night as the jet veers, but will encounter the apex of a ridge, a region of weak flow, causing storm motions to slow down.
- Temperatures will trend a degree or two warmer each day this week, climbing back into the low to middle 90s by the weekend. - Independence Day looks to be clear and dry with highs in the low to middle 90s.
Currently, a warm front continues to push through, with areas of showers across the region this morning with the cold front expected to arrive later this afternoon. While several rounds of showers are expected, there is still some uncertainty as to if skies will clear ahead of the cold front and how much instability will be available later this afternoon for convective development. Behind the cold front, cooler and drier conditions will filter into the region as winds become more northwesterly. The cooler and drier conditions will continue into Wednesday, with a brief period of high pressure nosing into the region.
Only a few scattered puffy clouds are present across the southern Panhandle and the higher elevation of southeast Wyoming. An upper-level ridge is sitting across the Intermountain West this afternoon with broadly northwesterly flow aloft today.
-A brief break from showers and thunderstorms for the holiday will see increasing temperatures with highs returning to the lower 90s.
More storms will develop late Tuesday morning ahead of the mid level trough axis and surface cold front. The cold front will clear Middle TN by 03z Wednesday with a drier pattern settling into the region.
1230 AM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025 - Mainly dry, cooler, and less humid tonight into Tuesday. Initial cold front from last night has swept well S of the area today, leading to cooler, drier air and refreshing Nrly breezes. CAMs ignite scattered convection over the High Plains Tue aftn/eve, then try to move this activity eastward down I-80 after dark.
- Turning warmer and more humid for the start of the 4th of July holiday weekend.
These storms have formed out ahead of a cold front that is expected to push through the Tennessee Valley later today.
1132 PM MDT Mon Jun 30 2025 - Afternoon showers and storms are expected each day with the best chances on the higher terrain. Currently there is a ridge of high pressure in place, so temperatures are running 5-10 degrees above normal. Convection has already initiated over the higher terrain, and expect some of that activity to move into the surrounding valleys through sunset. This should result in a slight uptick in afternoon convection with the highest chances occurring in the southern mountains. Low pressure over California and high pressure over the Gulf will keep deeper moisture moving into the CWA thanks to flow around these two features. Convection is expected to fire over the higher terrain and then possibly drift into adjacent valleys as the wave moves through.
* For today, the upper level low currently off the central CA coast will slowly track east into central CA.
1007 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025 - Cooler and less humid for Tuesday and Wednesday.
Highs in the lower 90s F and max heat index values around 100 F. Over the past hour a fine line has resolved on KEAX west of the KS/MO border, this could be in response to a secondary mid- level short wave trough dropping east-southeast toward the region. As this secondary boundary moves east, it will be interesting to see how it interacts with the analyzed surface cold front mentioned above. Broad ridging will set up over the plains to the Rockies into Tuesday, with a deepening H500 trough off the California Coast.
246 AM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025 - Tranquil weather today - Temperatures rising into holiday weekend - Storm chances increase into holiday weekend Weak high pressure will dominate Kansas weather today, so we can expect quiet conditions. Temperatures will perhaps be a touch warmer than yesterday, but most of the forecast area will still struggle to reach the 90s as NBM probabilities greater than 90 degrees are mostly less than 20%, with a few exceptions to the north and southeast. Winds will be light for most, generally less than 15 mph given high pressure.
Updated forecast to lower POPs north overnight with the current trends and to update hourly temperature grids due to the widespread area of rain-cooler air that has spread across much of the area. Temperatures on Tuesday will be slightly cooler with highs primarily in the upper 80s to low 90s (due to the passage of a cold front the night before). Ridging will keep us mostly dry, though we will still maintain some low chances for rain.
206 AM EDT Tue Jul 1 2025 A cold front approaches the area today with a chance for stronger thunderstorms. The stagnant pattern finally begins breaking down later today as a weak upper trough and surface cold front move into the area from the west.
111 AM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025 - A couple nice days with slightly cooler temperatures in store today and Wednesday. The mid to upper level trough that helped push yesterday's modified cold front through has shifted east of the region and is now tracking into the central Great Lakes. A western ridge remains mostly in place over the next couple of days with a cut-off low feature off the coast of central California.
1121 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025 - Scattered showers and storms will continue until a cold front makes passage tonight.
- Fourth of July is forecast to be quite toasty, with temperatures in the low-mid 90s and increasing humidity. Thus, we will be less humid over the next two days, with dewpoints remaining in the low-mid 60s.
1123 PM MDT Mon Jun 30 2025 - Convection to linger across the higher terrain and adjacent plains this evening, with the main threats being periods of heavy rain, gusty winds up to 45 mph, small hail and frequent lightning. - Daily shot of afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms, mainly tied to the higher terrain.
- Classic summer weather pattern during the middle to end of the week with daytime temperatures hovering in the low to mid into the 80s.