Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Temperatures along the Island Chain are in the mid to upper 80s with dew points in the lower to mid 70s. Therefore, the warm temperatures combined with the humidity is making it feel like its in the lower to mid 90s for much of the Chain with the exception of Big Pine where the RAWS is recording a heat index near 100 degrees.
Additionally, warmer air will gradually move into North Central and Southwest MT starting tomorrow, with the warming trend continuing through the weekend.
300 PM EDT Thu May 9 2024 Cold air moving in aloft will lead to cooler weather tomorrow through the weekend as well as frequent chances of showers. A long wave trough is slowly digging into the region with cold air advection aloft keeping temperatures on the cooler side this afternoon compared to recent days. Rain will be steady but light and last through most of the day tomorrow with QPF amounts ranging from near an inch in the higher elevations of NEPA to around a 10th of an inch in the Mohawk valley. Friday night was a little tricky in regards to the low temperature forecast.
The trough and attendant frontal boundary will shift eastward by Friday morning, introducing slightly cooler and drier conditions (temperatures maximums/minimums in the 80s/60s) with northerly winds.
1231 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024 A cold front will push through north Mississippi today. High pressure will build into the region on Friday with dry and cooler weather for the weekend.
Through most of the short-term, a 500 mb low pressure system will be stalled out over the Great Basin.
1210 PM EDT Thu May 9 2024 Low pressure will exit across the Maritimes today. Another low will track to our south Friday while high pressure builds to our north.
A dryline currently stretches from around Sweetwater south through just east of Sonora, while a southward moving cold front stretched from Sweetwater east through Baird. Cooler temperatures are expected behind the cold front tonight into Friday, with temperatures only reaching into the mid 70s to lower 80s. (Friday night through next Thursday) Cooler temperatures this weekend with an unsettled pattern.
Overall forecast is in good shape over the next 9-12 hours, with scattered to numerous showers and some additional upslope snow for the high terrain. Shower activity will persist beyond sunset but generally speaking it will taper off from north to south thru the night, as aforementioned ridging becomes more dominant. Friday will be dry & warmer (finally) as upper low moves out of our picture and the easterly flow aloft becomes a drier NW flow. JKL Upper level ridging over the region will bring warmer and mainly dry conditions through the weekend.
The broad upper level low centered over the Four-Corners Region is projected to retrograde westward slightly, resulting in one last push of easterly winds from the Tahoe basin southward. The broad upper low finally migrates eastward as weak high pressure builds across CA and NV in its wake.
Mid-level troughing will dive across the eastern Great Lakes and Northeast and remain in place through much of the weekend. Initially, this will support an area of weak low pressure to track southwest across the region.
This afternoon a vort max is rounding a upper level trough that is located over the Great Lakes and moving into the local area. This will keep temperatures seasonable in the low to mid 70s.
Issued by National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 1230 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024 - Slightly warmer temperatures with isolated afternoon and evening showers expected today.
A few isolated showers may develop in Lincoln County this afternoon before spreading southward Friday across mainly the higher terrain of southern Nevada and Northwest Arizona.
1120 AM EDT Thu May 9 2024 Low pressure will exit across the Maritimes today. Another low will track to our south Friday while high pressure builds to our north.
(This evening through Friday) The CWA will remain under the influence of broad, southwesterly flow aloft as a mid/upper-level low on the southwestern flank of a longwave, positively-tilted trough meanders over the central Rocky Mountains and Great Basin. At the surface, a cold front has become quasi-stationary to the southwest of the CWA where post-frontal winds will continue to steadily veer eastward while remaining blustery as pressure tendencies gradually rise. Pressure tendencies should neutralize by late Friday morning with the easterly breeze remaining intact at around 10-15 mph amidst mild temperatures as mid-level cloud cover steadily thickens upon the arrival of a 700 mb trough.
As high pressure strengthens its grip over the Northern Rockies, we're witnessing a gradual retreat of cloud cover from west to east, signaling clearer skies ahead. This surge in high pressure is poised to usher in a warming trend across central Idaho and western Montana, with valley highs expected to climb into the mid 70s to mid 80s during the upcoming period.
Cooler weather in place and it's a little less humid today. Another cold front is located upstream and stretches along the OH river westward across southern IL.
Tonight's forecasted lows will widely range from the upper 40s in western MN to near freezing in portions of interior west-central WI.
- A cold front passing tonight will usher in cooler temperatures from Friday through the weekend, with warming then returning. One such feature is interacting with a diffuse low pressure center, stretching roughly from SW OH to central VA, to generate some really light rain showers embedded within a larger scale stratocumulus field. Expect some low clouds to swipe across our area, especially along and just ahead of the cold front that will pull our temperatures to below normal. A short wave trough will shift from the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley region to New England, cutting off as it treks east through the weekend.
Isolated showers and thunderstorms ending by 04Z in the Lower Snake River Plain. High pressure dominating the region with dry conditions and surface winds 5-15 kt.
829 PM EDT Thu May 9 2024 - A stationary front will continue to be present across southwestern PA to northern VA for the next 24 hours as a few waves of low pressure move east along it.
634 PM EDT Thu May 9 2024 Cold air moving in aloft will lead to cooler weather tomorrow through the weekend as well as frequent chances of showers. A long wave trough is slowly digging into the region with cold air advection aloft keeping temperatures on the cooler side this afternoon compared to recent days. Rain will be steady but light and last through most of the day tomorrow with QPF amounts ranging from near an inch in the higher elevations of NEPA to around a 10th of an inch in the Mohawk valley. Friday night was a little tricky in regards to the low temperature forecast.
With winds shifting to the north, temperatures will run cooler than last night, eventually dropping into the lower 60s in most locations.
A low pressure system currently centered over northern Arizona/southern Utah is expected to retrograde slightly west through tomorrow.
A few showers/isolated storm will remain forecast near the Red River for the next couple of hours before the forcing axis and elevated instability get a push southeast from a mid/upper level trof axis dropping southeast through the Plains. with some possible high clouds early morning Friday behind the exiting trof axis.
Temperatures on Friday through the weekend will warm to the highest values of the season so far, with high temperatures reaching the 80s, with a few areas rising into the lower 90s.
844 PM MDT Thu May 9 2024 Upper low over the central Rockies was slowly moving south with mid level high pressure moving into southern Canada. Overall forecast is in good shape over the next 9-12 hours, with scattered to numerous showers and some additional upslope snow for the high terrain. Shower activity will persist beyond sunset but generally speaking it will taper off from north to south thru the night, as aforementioned ridging becomes more dominant. Friday will be dry & warmer (finally) as upper low moves out of our picture and the easterly flow aloft becomes a drier NW flow. JKL Upper level ridging over the region will bring warmer and mainly dry conditions through the weekend.
Cooler temperatures are expected behind the cold front tonight into Friday, with temperatures only reaching into the mid 70s to lower 80s. (Friday night through next Thursday) Cooler temperatures this weekend with an unsettled pattern.
Cooler conditions are anticipated over the weekend with a shift in the synoptic pattern from the northwest. Previous Discussion: The center of low pressure system is currently located in central Indiana at the moment. Based on ground observations across the region, the warm front is situated along I-70. As the center of the low ventures east into the Ohio River Valley, wind shear in the southern sector of the low will increase rom the west/southwest. With clouds, convection throughout the day, and cool northeast flow, temperatures will likely trend cooler than average for areas north of I-70; near average for areas south with in the warm sector.
- Warmer and mainly dry conditions throughout the weekend. As the low-level jet strengthens throughout the day, unidirectional winds from the surface up to 850mb will allow for a portion of the 30-35 knot winds to be brought down to the surface.
Combined winds, low RH, and dry fuels will produce near critical to critical fire weather conditions across the area Friday ahead of an approaching cold front.
The next short wave and cold front are progressing across southern Manitoba.
Much of the lower clouds across the region earlier have eroded and we're left with broken to overcast mid and high clouds for the remainder of the night. While thick enough to block the setting sun earlier, they haven't stopped temps from cooling as previously forecasted so no changes made to overnight min temps which should mainly fall into the low/mid 40s with some isolated upper 30s in the Adirondacks and Northeast Kingdom. The upper level flow is expected to split with weak high pressure over much of the North Country which should shunt the bulk of shower activity south of the region. Scattered showers can be expected this weekend as an upper level trough swings across the region.
Lows dropping into the low to mid 70s Friday night.
633 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024 (This evening through Friday) The CWA will remain under the influence of broad, southwesterly flow aloft as a mid/upper-level low on the southwestern flank of a longwave, positively-tilted trough meanders over the central Rocky Mountains and Great Basin. At the surface, a cold front has become quasi-stationary to the southwest of the CWA where post-frontal winds will continue to steadily veer eastward while remaining blustery as pressure tendencies gradually rise. Pressure tendencies should neutralize by late Friday morning with the easterly breeze remaining intact at around 10-15 mph amidst mild temperatures as mid-level cloud cover steadily thickens upon the arrival of a 700 mb trough.
911 PM EDT Thu May 9 2024 A cold front will approach the area tonight and pass through on Friday, bringing scattered showers and thunderstorms. High pressure will move in for the weekend.
Meanwhile, a midlatitude trough is working its way eastward through the northeastern United States and adjacent Atlantic. This trough is helping to wash out the formerly sharp mid and upper level ridging across our area. This evenings sounding indicated a very low level inhibitive layer based around 975 mb with quite a bit of dry air through the lower and mid levels. While surface dew points are in the lower 70s, precipitable water is only around 1. A ridge across South Florida and the Keys will shift further southeastward tonight.
152 AM EDT Fri May 10 2024 A cold front will approach the area tonight and pass through on Friday, bringing scattered showers and thunderstorms. High pressure will move in for the weekend.
An elongated trough at 500 MB stretches from Colorado into the Great Lakes and sits across eastern Iowa and northwest Illinois early this afternoon. The elongated trough is forecast to sink south of the area tonight bring rain to an end from north to south between 7 PM and 1 AM.
High pressure will continue building in from the west and ultimately dominate the synoptic pattern into the weekend. That said, upper level flow associated with the low pressure system to our south will continue to filter remnant moisture into the southern extent of Idaho. Come Saturday, CAMs show a similar scenario but with most activity further south into Utah as the low to our south shifts eastward. High pressure will mean light winds over the next couple of days, as well as ample sunshine and a warming trend, with high temperatures reaching 5 to 10 degrees above climatological norms on Saturday. However, widespread low temperatures this morning will still run in the 30s and cooler, prompting another FROST ADVISORY for the Lower and Upper Snake River Plain zones from 3 AM to 9 AM.
Much drier and cooler air moved in after the cold front passed yesterday, so this afternoon will feel very pleasant. While we could see surface winds turn southerly Saturday morning, they should return to a cooler northwest wind by the afternoon and evening.
(Today and tonight) The cold front has moved through the area tonight, leaving west central Texas in a much cooler air mass.
Cooler with less humidity through the short term. Lift associated with this, combined with cooling throughout the column and subsequent increase in lapse rates aloft as the trough approaches, should lead to some development of showers by this afternoon. We'll also have persistent upslope flow into the higher terrain so I wouldn't be surprised to see some isolated to scattered coverage as far south as the Smokies. The trough axis shifts east of us by early this evening, which will coincide with loss of daytime heating. Should see temps running around 5 degrees below normal, with dewpoints mixing out into the low 50s. With highs in the low 70s and afternoon RH values below 60 percent, it will be a very pleasant day.
Split flow continues for the start of the weekend with a positive tilted ridge over the Northern Plains, putting our area in northwest flow, and a closed low/trough over the Southwestern US.
The upper level flow is expected to split with weak high pressure over much of the North Country which should shunt the bulk of shower activity south of the region.
344 AM EDT Fri May 10 2024 High pressure builds across the region through Saturday night.
(Today through Saturday Night) Quieter and much drier conditions are ongoing across the state early this Fri morning in wake of the cold front that moved through on Thu. and a few deg warmer for Sat in the 70s to low 80s. and a few deg warmer for Sat night into Sun morning.
(Today through Saturday) Key Messages: â¶ Cold front to move across the region today â¶ Low chance for showers and storms through Saturday A cold front is sagging southward and is approaching our CWA this morning. Cooler and drier conditions expected behind the front with afternoon highs today climbing into the mid 80s to 90s. Lows tonight will be in the low to mid 70s accompanied by a low (20%) chance for showers and thunderstorms across the Rio Grande Plains.
1205 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024 (This evening through Friday) The CWA will remain under the influence of broad, southwesterly flow aloft as a mid/upper-level low on the southwestern flank of a longwave, positively-tilted trough meanders over the central Rocky Mountains and Great Basin. At the surface, a cold front has become quasi-stationary to the southwest of the CWA where post-frontal winds will continue to steadily veer eastward while remaining blustery as pressure tendencies gradually rise. Pressure tendencies should neutralize by late Friday morning with the easterly breeze remaining intact at around 10-15 mph amidst mild temperatures as mid-level cloud cover steadily thickens upon the arrival of a 700 mb trough.
Surface obs showed high pressure centered over the northern Rockies and ridging south through the central and southern plains. So highs are expected to be a few degrees warmer with good insolation and deep mixing of the boundary layer.
(Today through Saturday afternoon) The first piece of the rain puzzle is getting into place as a cold front moves through the Permian Basin early this morning. This moisture and the higher terrain west of the Pecos River will help widely scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop in the Big Bend and lower Trans Pecos this afternoon with the help of daytime heating. Convection increases overnight as an upper low over the western United States sends an upper level disturbance towards West Texas and eastern New Mexico.
An upper level trough and surface frontal boundary will cross the region today, with increasing northwesterly winds the main impact. The highest wind gusts of 30-35 knots should occur over the higher terrain areas of the Prairie Coteau. An area of low pressure will cross southern Canada on Saturday, bringing westerly winds to this CWA. Models are showing 925 mb temps warming into the low 20C, which is at or above the 90th percentile. Analogs support highs reaching the mid 70s, to the lower 80s on Saturday with favorable mixing winds.
For today, upper level low pressure will be spinning across southeastern Utah. This closed low pressure system will meander to the west and will take up a position in southern Nevada later this evening. The upper level low is forecast to shift east for Saturday and Saturday night with isolated showers mainly confined to eastern Nevada and portions of central Nevada, though again rainfall amounts will be rather light.
Cold front is moving through the area this morning and will be slow to do so. Upper trough lobes are oriented almost W-E today, but this will change with time. The upper ridging near Alaska today will eventually begin to build into the NW CONUS by late today, this will in turn force the upper trough from Cali through the inner-mountain west to begin moving SE and orient itself more meridionally. The flow over our area will be zonal today through Saturday but as the upper trough gets a bit closer and orients N-S, it will cause a strong divergent area as it couples with the zonal flow to the south.
248 AM EDT Fri May 10 2024 A cold front wish push through the area this morning bringing cooler air and gusty winds.
Now that this insanely stubborn front has finally moved out of the region, weak upper-level ridging will move overhead into the weekend. Temperatures will also run seasonal for this time of the year, with highs ranging in the low to mid-80s, and lows ranging in the mid-50s to low-60s.
- A frontal passage today will result in cooler and less humid weather on Saturday. Thus the severe weather potential for places like Columbus and Macon should be towards the lower end of the scale. An airmass shift will occur this afternoon as a cold front sweeps through Georgia. By Saturday morning a cooler and drier airmass should be firmly in place across the Southeast.
213 AM MDT Fri May 10 2024 - Warmer and mainly dry today.
High pressure will briefly build in during the day. A trough of low pressure will swing across the region late tonight into Saturday. Positively tilted upper trough is sliding across the region early this morning. Clouds will decrease in the wake of the trough and surface ridging will extending into the region this afternoon. It will be cooler with highs in the mid to upper 60s. A band of showers, possibly with some embedded thunder, will occur just ahead of this trough, developing southward as the entire system moves east. But cannot rule out some additional isolated to scattered showers or thunderstorms on Saturday afternoon, generally in central Ohio where it will be a bit unstable due to the juxtaposition of cooler temperatures aloft and surface heating.
335 AM EDT Fri May 10 2024 Another system will bring showers and thunder this afternoon, before dry high pressure builds in through the weekend. A low pressure center will move east along the slow moving cold front moving south across the area. Gusts will taper off outside of the mountains but linger across portions of the higher elevations.
The back end of a weak cold front moves through and low-level CAA behind this boundary will push through the Red River area by this afternoon. The only sensible impacts with this FROPA will be the slightly cooler temperatures compared to yesterday (only by a few degrees).
Cooler conditions are anticipated over the weekend with a shift in the synoptic pattern from the northwest. ------------------------------------------------------------------- Precipitation chances will remain across the region on Friday due the slow progression of the trough over the Mid-Atlantic, slowed down by ridging over the Mississippi River Valley. ------------------------------------------------------------------- Ridging over eastern Ohio Friday night into early Saturday is expected to decrease precipitation. Temperatures will remain cooler than average under northerly flow. KEY MESSAGES: - Cooler temperatures arrive by late week with highs in the 60s this weekend.
132 AM EDT Fri May 10 2024 High pressure builds across the region through Saturday night.
This raises some concerns for fire weather as the atmosphere mixes and RHs drop into the 20% range, but recent precipitation means fuels have greened up a bit so unsure how significant the low RHs and breezy winds will be.
(Today and tonight) Easterly surface winds in the wake of a cold front will bring much cooler temperatures today. Highs generally in the low-to-mid 70s will be seen area wide. Higher cloud cover is expected to persist through much of the day as an upper ridge axis moves over the region. The pattern begins to change later this evening as an upper low that has been stalled over southern Nevada for some time will finally start to slowly move eastward.
With a cool airmass in place and the trough moving through, temperatures will be cool for this time of the year; mainly in the upper 40s to mid 50s. Temperatures will again be cooler than normal, with highs expected to be in the mid 50s to near 60 degrees.
Temperatures are hovering in the upper 70s to near 80, with dewpoints in the lower to mid 70s, and winds on land from the southeast to south at 10 to 15 mph. Surface analysis shows high pressure retreating further offshore over the western Atlantic during the past 24 hours. The 00Z Key West sounding remained dry and stable, with a low inversion based near 1000 feet, very dry air throughout the lower to mid levels, and PW of only 1.
U/L pattern will begin with the west coast rex block in the process of breaking down, and quasi-zonal southern stream flow undercutting a west coast cut-off low which will extend across the southern tier of the U.
Cooler along the coast with onshore breezes. (Today and tonight) The large-scale pattern features high pressure aloft from the northeast Pacific through the Pacific Northwest, with a weak cutoff low over the Great Basin. The most likely forecast outcome is probably just some cumulus development, but it's worth noting that a few of the high resolution models and HREF ensemble members show some simulated reflectivity returns over these areas this afternoon. And our warmer inland areas will certainly be heating up. Probabilistic forecasts indicate a high (70%+) probability for high temperatures to reach 80 degrees or warmer for almost all areas, sans the coast and coastal marine-influenced valleys. Typically warmer places such as the Santa Clara Valley, southern Salinas Valley, and the North/East Bay valleys will see temperatures well into the 80s, with the warmest spots eclipsing the 90 degree mark.