Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
546 PM MDT Sun Sep 22 2024 - Slow clearing overnight, then low chance of some patchy frost over high mountain valleys early Monday morning, - Much warmer Monday with isolated showers/thunderstorms over the higher terrain. Currently, upper low easing into swrn Nebraska this afternoon, with extensive wrap-around cloud shield covering much of southern Colorado. Given enough uncertainty in clearing trends and also very wet ground/moist low level air mass over the San Luis Valley, will hold off on any frost/freeze highlight for now, as any near freezing temps look brief and limited in coverage to areas along/near the Rio Grande. Monday, upper low pulls away with brisk nw flow aloft developing across the state by late day.
Still some uncertainty in just how far N the warm front advances into the day Tuesday, with the warm sector favored to get to at least near the OH Rvr.
This after high temperatures that rose into the lower 90s. (Monday through Tuesday Night) The upper ridge that influenced this weekend's weather is expected to be pushed southeast through early this week as an upper trough digs down into the southern Plains and ArkLaMiss region from the Midwest. A cold front associated with this feature looks to then slowly approach the Tennessee Valley through at least Tuesday.
1232 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 (The rest of tonight) True cold front entering NE OK this evening, though at this time most of the precip is associated with an outflow boundary further south. Overnight low temperatures look reasonable as they reflect cooler air infiltrating the region overnight.
- Thunderstorms possible in the southeast along a cold front. (Today through Tuesday night) Upper level low that brought us all of the rain over the weekend will continue to shear apart as it moves northeast through the Midwest. Next upper level trough is expected to drop south- southeastward out of the Canadian Prairies and into northern Missouri/southern Iowa by late Tuesday afternoon. The flow over the Panhandles will be northerly on the back side of this trough. This vort max coupled with a cold front may provide enough lift to produce showers and thunderstorms across the southeast Texas Panhandle Tuesday afternoon and evening.
145 AM EDT Mon Sep 23 2024 High pressure will linger across the region through early week this week. Later this week, a tropical cyclone is forecast to move generally northward across the Gulf of Mexico, then possibly tracking inland across portions of the Deep South or Southeast U. Tonight: Aloft, a ridge centered across the northwest Gulf of Mexico extends across the Southeast United States. At the sfc, the local area resides between weak high pressure along the coast and weak low pressure across the Midlands. Monday: A large ridge will remain centered over the northern Gulf of Mexico through early this week. Tuesday: H5 ridge axis is expected to pivot across the forecast area during the day. Forecast soundings indicate shallow lapse rates under the ridge, limiting the convective potential.
A cold front will slowly progress eastward through the region this morning. Would expect the rain threat to lessen this afternoon, and we may dry out enough to lose the lower clouds during the afternoon. This wave looks to be stronger than today's and with southwest flow aloft, ahead of an upper low that will dig into the midwest, gulf moisture will stream in over the region.
(Today) With a weak area of high pressure remaining layered across parts of the eastern half of the region, quiet/seasonably mild wx conditions prevail into the early morning hrs this Mon. Afternoon highs look to climb predom into the lower 90s/near 90F, with the region remaining under the influence of an upper ridge axis over the western/central Gulf Coast areas.
Comparing to WPC cluster analysis, all 4 of the clusters have this solution with some variety with how strong the cutoff low could be and strength of upper level ridging. Compared to its last several runs, all WPC clusters show a stronger/sharper ridge axis running northeast-southeast across the great lakes at 00z Sat while also strengthening the cutoff low. TEMPS: a couple more days of near normal temps for the area before an upper level ridging bends northeast from the plains.
Southeast Michigan will reside between high pressure across the northern great lakes and a stalled frontal zone over the Ohio valley to start the work week. Higher quality low level moisture left in the wake of an exiting low pressure system ensures plentiful cloud cover through at least the first half of the day. Notably cooler relative to recent days, but still within the range of average for late September.
Temperatures become more seasonable today, expected to be in the high 50s to mid 60s. Tuesday temperatures increase slightly to the low to high 60s. The midweek period will continue to be a battle between stable dry low level air feeding in from high pressure to our northeast, and moisture aloft from disturbances embedded within southwesterly mid-to-upper level flow.
"Warmer" temperatures in ND and the RRV of northwest MN due to increasing winds/mixing late. Look for a continuation of cooler temperatures through tonight and into Monday morning as H5 troughing prevails across the central CONUS. H5 heights begin to increase late Monday into Tuesday as ridging builds into the area from the west.
-Elevated fire conditions at times this week Water vapor shows short wave trof diving through the Northern Rockies, with high over the eastern Pacific and ridge building into the Pac NW. At the surface, trof is shifting eastward across eastern MT/WY. Short wave trof will shift through the Northern PLains today, with associated surface trof/front creating some breezy northwest winds. Could be some virga/sprinkles with the trof, but otherwise will be a warm day with highs ranging from around 70 in northeast WY to the lower 80s in south central SD. Upper ridge will gradually expand eastward through the western CONUS early this week and into the Plains mid to late week.
Rua (Tonight through Tuesday night) Ridging aloft has weakened overnight and will continue to weaken at the start of the work week. PoPs will still be on the lower side, around 20%.
Cumulus buildups over the higher terrain this afternoon have dissipated with mostly clear skies at 8 PM. A period of dry and warmer weather is in store for the week ahead. In the wake of the departing upper low, some locally breezy northeast winds have developed, along with scattered cumulus clouds over the higher terrain. The weather pattern for the upcoming week features a strong Pacific ridge that builds over the west coast, and then across the interior west through the rest of the week. We expect high temperatures in the low 80s in the mountains with upper 90s to near 100 in the lowest valleys by the middle of the week. VFR conditions continue, with a few afternoon cumulus over the higher terrain.
(This afternoon through Monday) The Southeast CONUS remains underneath a high pressure regime aloft, with a mid level ridge extending from the northern Gulf of Mexico towards New England. By Monday night, the ridge axis will clear the forecast area to the east, with the mid level flow then shifting to southwesterly. This will be most notably apparent with the temperatures, with highs this afternoon and tomorrow afternoon forecast to rise into the low 90s in north Georgia and mid 90s in central Georgia. Whether it be high or low temperatures, they are expected to be 7-15 degrees warmer than daily normals through the end of the period.
Temperatures will fall into the low to mid 70s, with upper 70s possible along the immediate coast south of the Cape that maintain an onshore wind.
- Breezy winds develop this afternoon as a weak cold front moves through the region.
1233 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 - Low temperatures tonight will range from the upper 30s in Valley County to the low 50s in Mitchell County. An upper trough extends from Nebraska to the California coast. Another upper trough is centered over Canada and extends southward over the upper Midwest. Northerly winds are present with much cooler temperatures. The upper trough over the area will begin to move east on Monday with another upper trough moving over the northern Plains. High temperatures on Monday will mostly be in the lower 70s. An upper trough will extend from the central part of the country to the Great Lakes on Tuesday. Winds will switch to the north on Tuesday across the area on the backside of the upper trough.
Several models have been trending warmer with high temperatures this afternoon. Probability of temperatures exceeding inherited highs was greater than 80% in most locations, leading to greater confidence in warmer temperatures this afternoon. Did warm up temps a couple degrees trending towards the warmer models. Southerly winds and weak WAA will help warm temperatures, temperatures may need to be adjusted even warmer, but confidence was not high enough at this time to raise temperatures more than a couple degrees from unrotated forecast. After having the coldest overnight/morning since Spring, the cold air will push east as a ridge of high pressure begins to build across the west.
A residual weak upper trof will linger over the central Plains/eastern Kansas on Monday with slight chances for a few showers in far southeast Kansas. Meanwhile a stronger northern stream upper trof will settle southward across the northern Plains into the Midwest Monday night thru Tuesday. The relatively cool air aloft under the upper trof combined with diurnal heating may promote scattered convection across central and eastern Kansas on Tuesday afternoon. The medium range consensus continues to support developing this into a cutoff low meandering southward in vicinity of the Ozark region later in the week as a Rex-type blocking pattern (ridge aloft) builds over the Upper Midwest/northern Great Lakes.
339 AM EDT Mon Sep 23 2024 - Rain chances return late tonight into Tuesday - Mild and quiet weather mid and late week Pattern/synopsis: 1009mb low pressure is near the St Clair River. Most precip is east thru north of this low; synoptic precip has largely exited northern MI. Forecast: High pressure will s and sw-ward into northern MI, as the low departs to the e and se. There are also signs in guidance of an inverted surface trof developing northward into nw lower MI, with associated moisture pooling. Embedded troughing along both north and southern branch flow will keep us somewhat active early in the period, before things quiet.
Updated at 235 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 - Rain chances return Tuesday / Tuesday nigh (30-50%) with next cold front. A cold front has passed through the area, leaving us much cooler.
Dry, mild, and warmer than normal temperatures are on tap for the region this week as a ridge of high pressure builds over the western US. Outside of these warmer than normal temperatures, weather during the short term will be relatively uneventful with dry conditions persisting and typical afternoon breezes each day.
Post Tuesday, a ridge begins to build into the area increasing temperatures and drying conditions out for the week. Conditions begin to dry out Tuesday afternoon and evening, with temperatures reaching into the lower 70s. Ridge starts to build into the region mid week and into the end of the week, with temperatures climbing into the upper 70s to lower 80s. Conditions will remain dry as the ridge refuses to move eastward. Confidence is increasing that by the end of the following weekend and into the first week of October we start to see a breakdown of the ridge leading to a cool down in temperatures. Southerly winds increase above 12kt during the late morning/daytime period Monday as pressure gradient strengthens ahead of the approaching low pressure and associated front (gusts 20-25kt most common in eastern ND).
1220 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 - Frost potential tonight as high pressure settles across the region and clouds decrease. Upper level low pressure is in the process of filling/weakening across southwest Nebraska into northwest Kansas this afternoon. Guidance has trended a little warmer that past couple of runs, and have to get down to around the 10th %tile to see much in the way of frost. Winds will shift to the south on the backside of the high. CAA behind the front will be limited with the airmass Pacific in nature with highs in the lower to mid 70s.
Updated at 235 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 - Rain chances return Tuesday / Tuesday night (30-50%) with next cold front. A cold front has passed through the area, leaving us much cooler.
An upper level trough will dive southeast today into the Northern Plains, continuing southeast tonight. This feature will have limited moisture available and much of the guidance, including most of the 80 ensemble members of the ECMWF/GFS, have little precipitation with this trough for tonight into Tuesday. The upper trough will continue south on Tuesday eventually cutting off and retrograding across the south-central CONUS.
(Today) The surface cold front has moved through the area with cool northerly flow resulting in declining temperatures, coolest in northeast OK. The upper level trough axis is still upstream, so good upper level divergence continues across the area. As the trough axis approaches, precipitation will gradually become confined to northwest and north- central AR during the afternoon, finally moving out of the area by tonight. Additional rainfall totals will vary, but in general the highest totals should be in AR. Elsewhere, temperatures will be a bit warmer, generally in the mid 70s.
Ridging and a high pressure center building into the west coast keep a lid on shower and thunderstorm activity as the atmosphere remains very stable and dry. The ridge continues to build into the SW CONUS on Monday. A dome of high pressure building over the Pacific Ocean under a well amplified ridge pattern will come onshore Monday evening over the Pacific NW. This places the region in the southeastern flank of the high creating ENE flow over the area.
Surface analysis was showing the cold front has moved to near the Ohio River, and GOES-16 RGB nighttime channel and surface obs were indicating a stratus deck was expanding southeast to near the I-70 corridor. As such, afternoon temperatures will only reach slightly below normal readings in the lower to middle 70s. GOES-16 H20 vapor imagery was showing a positively tilted trough from Nebraska to southeastern Colorado and northern New Mexico. This trough will move east into the Missouri Valley by 12z Tuesday. This trough will help spin up surface waves along the Ohio Valley front.
If these above normal temperatures are not your jam, just wait for the evening/overnight hours where temperatures in the 30s and 40s are expected for many areas of the High Country. These warm, dry, and mostly calm conditions are thanks to a strong high pressure system. This wave looks to stay mostly north and east of Arizona, but overall will slightly weaken the pressure gradients associated with the ridge. VFR conditions continue, with a few afternoon cumulus over the higher terrain.
A much cooler and drier airmass has pushed in across the Upper Midwest with rain remaining well southeast across the mid Missouri Valley and Great Lakes. As the pattern shifts to a warmer one later in the week, a preceding trough could bring a few showers to southwestern MN Monday night and Tuesday morning.
Latest surface map shows the cold front approaching a Shelbyville to Paris line. Geelhart 19z/2pm surface analysis shows a cold front between the Illinois River and the I-55 corridor. With forcing shifting to the south and slightly drier air advecting into the region behind the departing cold front, think early evening showers will come to an end and mostly dry weather can be anticipated overnight.
308 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 - A cold front will be the focus for a 15 to 25 percent chance of light rain showers this afternoon and evening.
Temperatures become more seasonable today, expected to be in the high 50s to mid 60s. Tuesday temperatures increase slightly to the low to high 60s. An increasingly amplified upper level pattern will take shape through mid-week as a deep trough cuts off into a closed low over the mid-Mississippi Valley Tuesday night, while an upper level ridge axis extends across the east coast.
1003 PM PDT Sun Sep 22 2024 A weak weather system will deliver increasing clouds and warmer overnight low temperatures for tonight. A ridge of high pressure will deliver above normal temperatures Monday and Tuesday.
In addition, increasing subsidence Tuesday behind a departing upper trough axis will cause temperatures to rebound back into the 80s.
- A cold front moves through Tuesday leaving behind cooler conditions for the remainder of the forecast.
Ridging kicks in Tuesday with anti-cyclonic flow returning and keeping us dry.
104 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 (Tonight through Monday night) A cold front will sag into the Edwards Plateau and Rio Grande this evening, then Central Texas, the Hill Country, and farther south along the Rio Grande overnight.
(Through Monday) Ridging aloft and at the surface will keep things pretty status-quo through Monday afternoon. Daytime highs climb into the lower to middle 90s Monday afternoon. (Monday night through Tuesday night) Ridging will continue through the duration of the short term with persistent dry and pleasant conditions remaining in place on Tuesday. Large scale subsidence as ridging settles in will keep skies clear with little chances for rain all day with light and variable winds out of the east.
Tomorrow, the flow becomes more zonal as high pressure shifts to our southeast. Shear in the lower levels is weak to non-existent.
1248 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 (Tonight through Tuesday) A 500mb ridge will be centered over the Gulf of Mexico with its axis extending northward across Alabama.
------------------------------------------------------------------- A cold front will slowly progress eastward through the region this morning. Would expect the rain threat to lessen this afternoon, and we may dry out enough to lose the lower cloud cover as well. This wave looks to be stronger than today's and with southwest flow aloft, ahead of an upper low that will dig into the midwest, gulf moisture will stream in over the region.
403 AM EDT Mon Sep 23 2024 After a mostly cloudy and mild day today, a wave of low pressure will bring showers and thunderstorms to the Ohio Valley late tonight into Tuesday.
Surface ridging peels east tonight underneath cyclonic W-NW flow.
1226 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 - A cold front will bring a 30% chance of light rain over north central SD Monday afternoon, and the rest of the forecast area Monday evening.
ANS An approaching cold front will bring scattered showers and thunderstorms to the Midsouth on Monday. This front will eventually stall over north Mississippi on Tuesday, as a deep upper level low pressure system approaches. This upper low will remain near the Midsouth through much of the week, as a tropical system likely develops in the Gulf of Mexico.
- Cooler temperatures this week with highs in the 70s. A cold front will move through later tonight and showers will taper off from west to east, leaving Monday dry and much cooler. High temperatures will only be in the low 70s.
Cumulus buildups over the higher terrain this afternoon have dissipated with mostly clear skies at 8 PM. A period of dry and warmer weather is in store for the week ahead. In the wake of the departing upper low, some locally breezy northeast winds have developed, along with scattered cumulus clouds over the higher terrain. The weather pattern for the upcoming week features a strong Pacific ridge that builds over the west coast, and then across the interior west through the rest of the week. We expect high temperatures in the low 80s in the mountains with upper 90s to near 100 in the lowest valleys by the middle of the week.
Satellite imagery today show the upper trof over the central high plains making slow progress eastward. Cooler air with the associated front has moved across much of the forecast area, but enough lift remains to bring showers into the cooler air, with highs holding in the 60s.
Plenty of clouds upstream, however, associated with a Pacific moisture plume arriving atop a Southeast US Ridge. Some CAMs indicate a high likelihood of thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon in the vicinity of the low's triple point and baroclinic zone aloft.
1153 PM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024 High pressure will build from eastern Canada through tonight while low pressure in the open Atlantic drifts further out to sea.
(This evening through Monday night) For the next few days, ridging and high pressure will continue to build over the area. In addition to being dry, it will be slightly warmer than average for this time of year with highs in the mid 90s and heat index values around the low 100s through Tuesday.
- Rain chances increase Tuesday (30-50%) with next cold front. (This evening through Monday) Showers and thunderstorms are ongoing across western into central Oklahoma early this afternoon as a cold front continues to make slow progress southward. With the upper trough axis still centered well to our west, we expect additional rounds of showers and storms to move across the area tonight into Monday morning. Activity is expected to diminish Monday morning across southeast Oklahoma as the frontal forcing moves further away and the upper trough weakens. Temperatures on Monday will be much cooler than recent days, with highs only in the 70s across much of the area.
Much cooler today. The main story in the short term forecast will be how much cooler the area is behind a cold front that sparked showers and thunderstorms yesterday and continue early this morning. As the upper trough axis slowly moves over the area and to the east, northwesterly drying flow will move in aloft, and we should see slow clearing during the afternoon from the northwest to southeast. As the cold front attempts to retreat back to the north tonight, models do show at least a 20% chance for additional showers and maybe a thunderstorm or two this evening, so have kept some slight chance PoPs in the forecast for this. Overnight lows will be slightly cooler, mainly in the low to mid 60s.
If these above normal temperatures are not your jam, just wait for the evening/overnight hours where temperatures in the 30s and 40s are expected for many areas of the High Country. These warm, dry, and mostly calm conditions are thanks to a strong high pressure system. This wave looks to stay mostly north and east of Arizona, but overall will slightly weaken the pressure gradients associated with the ridge.
Post Tuesday, a ridge begins to build into the area increasing temperatures and drying conditions out for the week. Conditions begin to dry out Tuesday afternoon and evening, with temperatures reaching into the lower 70s. Ridge starts to build into the region mid week and into the end of the week, with temperatures climbing into the upper 70s to lower 80s. Conditions will remain dry as the ridge refuses to move eastward. Confidence is increasing that by the end of the following weekend and into the first week of October we start to see a breakdown of the ridge leading to a cool down in temperatures.
Otherwise, it will be another warm day as highs reach the lower 90s for most locations.
626 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 - Thunderstorms possible in the southeast along a cold front. (Today through Tuesday night) Upper level low that brought us all of the rain over the weekend will continue to shear apart as it moves northeast through the Midwest. Next upper level trough is expected to drop south- southeastward out of the Canadian Prairies and into northern Missouri/southern Iowa by late Tuesday afternoon. The flow over the Panhandles will be northerly on the back side of this trough. This vort max coupled with a cold front may provide enough lift to produce showers and thunderstorms across the southeast Texas Panhandle Tuesday afternoon and evening.
A weak cold front will approach northwest portions of the area by later tonight, and the increased moisture convergence could support increased rain chances over far northwest portions of the area by daybreak.