Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1036 AM EST Sun Dec 22 2024 High pressure to the west is maintaining a dry northeast flow across the region. (Today and tonight) High pressure over New England will promote northeasterly flow today with mainly sunny skies expected again. Highs will still be on the cool side, ranging from the mid-50s across southeast Alabama and southwest Georgia to the lower 60s in the southeast Big Bend. Thus, have trended a bit warmer for lows tonight with upper 30s to lower 40s east of the Flint and Apalachicola Rivers with lower to middle 30s farther west where winds may go calm and skies remain mainly clear for most of the night.
1122 AM CST Sun Dec 22 2024 - Very light precipitation remains possible (<20%) near highway 14 and then into southwest MN near and east of the Buffalo Ridge tonight.
1242 PM EST Sun Dec 22 2024 High pressure will build in from the west today and tonight and crest over the area Monday.
259 PM CST Sun Dec 22 2024 - Temperatures will become cooler Monday through Christmas Day, with highs in the low to mid 50s expected Monday and in the mid to upper 40s Christmas Day.
1115 AM CST Sun Dec 22 2024 (Rest of Today) A large area of high pressure controls the weather over most of the eastern CONUS this morning. While, the center of of the high is located over the Ohio Valley region, the southwestern portion of this feature extends into northern Alabama and Mississippi. The good news is that we will not see the cloud cover we saw yesterday and with much weaker cold air advection today, warmer temperatures are expected. With a much more lax pressure gradient in place under the influence of the large area of high pressure, winds will be lighter today.
1222 PM MST Sun Dec 22 2024 KEY MESSAGES: - Risk for pockets of freezing rain Monday morning for valleys below 4000 feet, mainly affecting western Montana. Tonight will be another round of such precipitation, predominantly affecting western Montana valleys below 4000 feet with a rain/snow mix and pockets of freezing rain through Monday morning.
The continuing warm advection will mean warmer low temperatures Monday morning. Lows will be 10+ degrees warmer than this morning. A weak upper ridge will build over the region Monday and the low level southeasterly flow will continue. Highs Monday will be 5-10 degrees warmer than today. Monday night will be about a repeat of tonight with temperatures another two or three degrees warmer than Monday morning.
220 PM EST Sun Dec 22 2024 Arctic high pressure over the northeastern United States will move offshore Monday.
Highs have warmed into the middle 60s across the Nature Coast and into the lower 70s south of I-4. As this high pressure shifts further east today, winds will become more northeasterly tonight. For the first half of the week, the high pressure will be located off the East Coast leading to easterly lower level flow across the state. For the latter part of the week, ridging will build across the eastern half of the country. Winds and seas will begin to subside on Monday as high pressure holds over the waters.
Satellite imagery shows an eastward-moving upper low over northeast MT with drier WNW flow spreading thru our forecast area. Other than the light precip over the mountains, we will be dry tonight under brief period of upper level ridging. It goes without saying that temperatures will remain a good amount warmer than normal. Highs Monday will be in the 40s to around 50F (normals are in the low-mid 30s).
538 PM CST Sun Dec 22 2024 - Temperatures will become cooler Monday through Christmas Day, with highs in the low to mid 50s expected Monday and in the mid to upper 40s Christmas Day.
402 PM MST Sun Dec 22 2024 - Warm conditions today give way to a cooler and more seasonable start to Christmas Week. The north winds tonight will help move a colder air mass over the region bringing Monday's high temperatures into the low to middle 50s. Main focus continues to be the closed low moving through Christmas night.
720 PM EST Sun Dec 22 2024 Arctic high pressure over the northeastern United States will move offshore Monday.
806 PM EST Sun Dec 22 2024 Strong high pressure sliding to our north brings continued chilly conditions into Monday, with both daytime highs and overnight lows expected to be below normal.
535 PM CST Sun Dec 22 2024 - There is a chance (25-50%) of light freezing rain this evening and and light freezing drizzle or snow overnight across northeastern SD into west central MN. An area of rain/freezing rain is happening out over western/central North Dakota. Precipitation type would be freezing liquid precipitation (surface temps at or below freezing). Issued an SPS for light freezing rain potential, should the area of forcing/lift aloft hold together long enough to bring light freezing precip potential toward this CWA this evening. Beyond the actual freezing rain potential this evening, remnant low stratus that moves into the region overnight may be deep enough, with enough weak lift within the cloud layer itself, to promote a few hours of freezing drizzle potential from roughly 09Z to 15Z Monday.
913 PM EST Sun Dec 22 2024 High pressure over Ontario Canada just to the east of Georgian Bay will drift to the east across the Adirondacks tonight. A weak area of low pressure at the surface and aloft will track north of the state Monday night into early Christmas Eve. In the NWS Binghamton forecast area, which is directly under the high, indicated that temperatures are already trending below the 5th percentile NBM across parts of their area.
Dry weather continues with slightly warmer temperatures tomorrow. This should result in slightly warmer temperatures tomorrow, reaching the 45 to 50 range in most spots.
556 PM CST Sun Dec 22 2024 (Tonight) The center of the area of high pressure settled over the Ohio Valley shifts east into the northeastern CONUS overnight. However, the southwestern portion of the high moves little.
A cold front moving through the region will bring much cooler temperatures through the end of the week, but rain chances remains little to none. Thus, the highly amplified ridging that was anchored over the region is now weakening, which will lead to cooler temperatures going into tomorrow.
707 PM EST Sun Dec 22 2024 - Monday morning, freezing rain is expected for counties along the southern Michigan state line. - Elsewhere, a brief period of freezing rain or drizzle in the morning changes to rain.
These clouds are in association with increasing southwest low-level moisture over the Lower Mississippi Valley.
621 PM CST Sun Dec 22 2024 - Chance of snow and freezing drizzle late tonight and early Monday across central MN and western WI. - A warming trend will occur this week with highs in the low to mid 30s by Christmas and near 40 possible by later in the week. Therefore, hourly PoPs are low, except for areas closer to central WI, but looking at the whole period late tonight and early Monday it seems relatively likely most areas will experience some light precipitation at some point however brief, whether from freezing drizzle with saturation in the boundary layer or from bursts of freezing rain or snow as outlined before. Some freezing rain can't be ruled out at night, but that would be the exception with surface temps likely remaining above freezing.
708 PM EST Sun Dec 22 2024 High pressure over Ontario Canada just to the east of Georgian Bay will drift to the east across the Adirondacks tonight. A weak area of low pressure at the surface and aloft will track north of the state Monday night into early Christmas Eve.
642 PM EST Sun Dec 22 2024 High pressure will continue to shift east over the next couple of days, leading to a warming trend starting tonight. Lows in the morning will be around 10 degrees warmer compared with this morning and highs tomorrow afternoon will also be warmer.
Temperatures have been the main story the last few nights with the passing cold front, though the transition of surface winds out of the northeast through tonight and east by tomorrow will allow for a gradual warming and moistening into the early week period. (Rest of today through Monday) High pressure remains well-established across the eastern United States including South Florida to close out the weekend and kick off the work week. Otherwise, conditions should remain generally dry and slightly cooler than average for this time of year.
Looking aloft, southwest flow has supported slightly warmer temperatures this evening than we saw 24 hours ago, and this trend will continue into the first half of the work week.
705 PM EST Sun Dec 22 2024 High pressure will shift off to the east through tonight. With light winds, will undercut temperatures a few degrees again, especially across our east, closer to the ridge axis. Will range lows from the teens in the far east to the low/mid 20s in the west. The one concern would be if pcpn moves into our northwest fast enough Monday afternoon, as ground/pavement temperatures may still be below freezing since we are coming out of an extended cold period. As of now the METRo road model is showing pavement temps going above freezing by early afternoon in our north, shortly before any pcpn moves into the northwest.
/Issued 120 PM MST Sun Dec 22 2024/ - Meteorological Overview: Moisture wrapping around a low pressure system just off to the north in Canada has helped produce a wave of isolated, very light rain across North Central MT this afternoon. Better chances for widespread precipitation at lower elevations arrives with a more potent upper- level trough on Christmas Eve. Warmer temperatures will keep the precipitation type to mostly rain over the plains, with a rain/snow mix in the Southwest Valleys.
621 PM EST Sun Dec 22 2024 Arctic high pressure over the northeastern United States will move offshore Monday.
3 inches in precipitable water over the past 24 hours, as the subsidence inversion from the lower tropospheric ridging to our northeast has lifted to around 5,000 ft. A coastal trough will develop east of Florida and the Carolinas over the next few days.
115 AM MST Mon Dec 23 2024 KEY MESSAGES: - Risk for pockets of freezing rain this morning for valleys below 4000 feet, mainly affecting western Montana. Persistent low pressure over the northeast Pacific Ocean is keeping the upper level jet pointed at the Pacific Northwest. The higher elevations of most mountain ranges will see a little more. Freezing rain will remain in the forecast this morning for valleys able to hold on to colder temperatures such as the Libby area and the Flathead, Missoula, and Bitterroot Valleys, as well as the Elk City, ID area.
1157 PM EST Sun Dec 22 2024 (Monday through Tuesday night) Strong high pressure will be centered to the northeast Monday, with ridge extending south across the southeastern US. A weak low is expected to develop in a trough over the coastal waters Monday, and lift north across the coastal waters Monday through Monday night. An enhanced north northeast flow is expected along the coast due to this weak low in trough. The trough should be far enough to the north northeast Tuesday into Tuesday night for rain chances to stay offshore.
Today through Tuesday night A trough of low pressure over Northern Nevada this morning will move eastward into Wyoming this afternoon. A trough of low pressure will progress eastward over Northern California tonight. Precipitation ahead of this trough of low pressure will overspread Northern and Central Nevada from west to east Tuesday. The trough of low pressure will move eastward across the service area Tuesday night.
A progressive upper wave over the Upper Midwest will push eastward toward the Great Lakes today, with a weak sfc cold front dropping into Illinois and Indiana.
943 PM MST Sun Dec 22 2024 - Warm conditions today give way to a cooler and more seasonable start to Christmas Week. The north winds tonight will help move a colder air mass over the region bringing Monday's high temperatures into the low to middle 50s. Main focus continues to be the closed low moving through Christmas night.
Elsewhere, areas west of I-55 will see overnight lows in the low 30s. The surface warm sector will increase with each approaching trough, and it is possible that at least a marginal severe weather threat could develop, especially as we go from Thu night into the weekend.
(Monday through Tuesday Night) High pressure to shift east today allowing for return southerly flow and increased moisture advection areawide. Convection to continue overnight with a few isolated thunderstorms possible near daybreak Tuesday across the I-30 corridor as an upper-trough moving east across the Texas intercepts the frontal boundary resulting in modest height falls that will lead to increased instability areawide.
Slightly warmer Monday night, with lows ranging from lower to upper 30s for all inland areas, low to mid 40s for most coastal areas (but upper 40s possible for the barrier islands). Slightly warmer highs on Tuesday (Christmas Eve) with highs in the low to mid 60s across the entire area.
Patchy fog or stratus may develop after sunrise across eastern Oregon and the lower valleys of southwest Idaho, but any fog or stratus should dissipate by early afternoon as upper-level flow increases ahead of the next storm system. Recent guidance suggests the trough may weaken as it splits while moving inland on Tuesday.
High pressure stays to our east Monday and Tuesday, and winds will be predominantly onshore for us, which means warmer temperatures with highs reaching the 70s on Tuesday.
A weak, elongated trough will approach the Cowboy State today, bringing another round of light to moderate snow to the western mountains through the day. Locally higher amounts around 16 inches will occur on the higher peaks. Snow will end later this evening, as a ridge transitions over the region. The closed low that has been forecasted for the last several days remains on track to dive southward over the Four Corners region Tuesday night into Christmas Day. However, a trough that is in phase with the low will move over the Northern Rockies.
High pressure will hold over the waters through the period and although winds may be a bit elevated, they are expected to remain below cautionary levels.
228 AM EST Mon Dec 23 2024 High pressure will crest south of the area today. Low pressure will approach tonight and track along the coast on Tuesday.
In the upper levels, weak ridging over the region today will become zonal tonight as a clipper system moves through the Great Lakes region. At the surface, high pressure remains over the Southeast.
1149 PM EST Sun Dec 22 2024 - Monday morning, freezing rain is expected for counties along the southern Michigan state line. - Elsewhere, a brief period of freezing rain or drizzle in the morning changes to rain.
A cold front moving through the region will bring much cooler temperatures through the end of the week, but rain chances remains little to none. Thus, the highly amplified ridging that was anchored over the region is now weakening, which will lead to cooler temperatures going into tomorrow. However, more ridging will build across the region through Tuesday, ahead of a more potent trough that will cause some more significant, sensible weather changes going through the middle of this week.
1215 AM EST Mon Dec 23 2024 (Rest of today through Monday) High pressure remains well-established across the eastern United States including South Florida to close out the weekend and kick off the work week. Otherwise, conditions should remain generally dry and slightly cooler than average for this time of year.
1011 PM EST Sun Dec 22 2024 High pressure will shift off to the east through tonight. Lows to range from the teens in the far east to the low/mid 20s in the west. The one concern would be if pcpn moves into our northwest fast enough Monday afternoon, as ground/pavement temperatures may still be below freezing since we are coming out of an extended cold period. As of now the METRo road model is showing pavement temps going above freezing by early afternoon in our north, shortly before any pcpn moves into the northwest. A trailing cold front will make inroads into northern Indiana and northern Ohio, but this looks to weaken and eventually wash out sometime on Tuesday. In any case, there will be a chance of rain with the highest PoPs expected for our northeast zones Monday night.
By Tuesday morning, a trough of low pressure will bring valley rain and mountain snow to the region.
Elsewhere, areas west of I-55 will see overnight lows in the low 30s. The surface warm sector will increase with each approaching trough, and it is possible that at least a marginal severe weather threat could develop, especially as we go from Thu night into the weekend. The surface warm sector will increase with each approaching trough, and it is possible that at least a marginal severe weather threat could develop, especially as we go from Thu night into the weekend.
Early morning temperatures range from the lower 20s in the NE mountains to the mid 30s from N of CSG to N of MCN. At the surface, a high pressure ridge from New England to N GA is forecast to gradually weaken.
1154 PM CST Sun Dec 22 2024 (This evening through Tuesday) While cool temperatures remained in place today, warmer temperatures are expected in the coming days. Sfc ridging will continue to drift east, away from the state through Monday which will provide a return to S-SW low level flow. Through Tuesday, T/Td values will increase significantly across the state, especially across southern AR as a warm front lifts north across the area.
Overnight temps settle into the low 50s north of I-4 while most other spots reach the mid to upper 50s. Weak mid level ridging stays in place through early week as the local warming trend continues. Morning lows dip into the 50s both days, staying closer to the low 60s across the Treasure Coast.
(Now through Tuesday night) A westerly upper level flow today will become southwest on Tuesday as an upper trough digs across the plains states. Lows tonight will range from the low to mid 30s inland to mid 40s near the coast. High temps on Christmas Eve will be much warmer, in the low to mid 60s areawide.
Drier air will remain present in the mid-levels due to the synoptic scale ridge still presiding over the SE states and helping to inhibit shower development, but this influx of shallow moisture will bring back chances for shallow isolated rain showers on Tuesday, particularly along the immediate east coast where the strongest convergence occurs. Temperatures will continue to be on the increase as the veering surface winds to the east help moderate the cooler temperatures over the last couple of days. However, they will still be on the cooler side early this morning as the moderation begins.
Fast moving upper level ridge moves through today and tomorrow keeping temperatures elevated well above average, but this will come to an end soon.
1100 PM EST Sun Dec 22 2024 High pressure drift east across the Adirondacks tonight. A weak area of low pressure at the surface and aloft will track north of the state Monday night into early Christmas Eve. In the NWS Binghamton forecast area, which is directly under the high, temperatures are already trending below the 5th percentile of the National Blend of Models. A coating of snow is likely near the Allegheny Front while up to a couple inches are possible across the NW Mtns as some added moisture from lake Erie is injected into the region post cold frontal early Christmas Eve. Model soundings indicate there is some risk for a bit of very light freezing rain over the Lower Susq Valley around daybreak Tuesday.
1142 PM CST Sun Dec 22 2024 - Temperatures will become cooler Monday through Christmas Day, with highs in the low to mid 50s expected Monday and in the mid to upper 40s Christmas Day.
(Today) High pressure will remain the dominating feature at the surface for the near term forecast. Subsidence from high pressure will promote clear skies and calm conditions through the afternoon. The SE flow will continue to modify the cooler weekend air mass allowing warm moist air from the Atlantic to filter into the area. This will amount to highs being able to climb into the low 50s with dew points slowly increasing to the low 30s throughout the day.
359 AM EST Mon Dec 23 2024 - Brief light freezing rain is expected to cause slippery roads near and north of the Michigan border from late morning into mid afternoon.
102 AM EST Mon Dec 23 2024 High pressure will shift off to the east through tonight. Lows to range from the teens in the far east to the low/mid 20s in the west. The one concern would be if pcpn moves into our northwest fast enough Monday afternoon, as ground/pavement temperatures may still be below freezing since we are coming out of an extended cold period. As of now the METRo road model is showing pavement temps going above freezing by early afternoon in our north, shortly before any pcpn moves into the northwest. A trailing cold front will make inroads into northern Indiana and northern Ohio, but this looks to weaken and eventually wash out sometime on Tuesday. In any case, there will be a chance of rain with the highest PoPs expected for our northeast zones Monday night.
126 AM CST Mon Dec 23 2024 - Warmer temperatures are expected today above normal temperatures are expected through the weekend.
Ahead of the trough, weak Q-vector convergence and period of ample deep layer moisture will result in spotty light precipitation - mainly across northeastern WY, the Black Hills, and northwestern SD. BUFKIT soundings across northwestern SD indicate a shallow layer of very moist air near the surface which could lend to the development of fog/freezing fog. Weak shear at the top of the saturated layer would support freezing drizzle in some areas as temperatures drop below freezing tonight into early Tuesday. Forecast confidence in this scenario is low as the saturated layer near the surface is very shallow -- however have opted to mention slight chances for freezing drizzle across northwestern SD for this forecast package.
- Active pattern expected mid-week onwards with daily chances for snow in the mountains and small chances for some snow across the lower elevations. Upper trough moving through central Colorado currently. Colorado trough continues to move east today with snow ending in the mountains this evening. Ridging Tuesday with dry weather and lighter winds.
Winds will remain generally light and veer from northerly to southerly through the day as high temps warm to right around freezing for most of northern lower (high 20s for eastern upper).
Tue night has winds coming around to a SE direction with some added moisture but mixing is heightened from an inverted trough moving through the gulf, so more than likely this will result in a strat deck off the ground.
535 AM CST Mon Dec 23 2024 - A few weather systems will bring periodic chances for precipitation through the weekend, with the first being today as a cold front works through the area.
438 AM CST Mon Dec 23 2024 (Today) High pressure will remain the dominating feature at the surface for the near term forecast. Subsidence from high pressure will promote clear skies and calm conditions through the afternoon. The SE flow will continue to modify the cooler weekend air mass allowing warm moist air from the Atlantic to filter into the area. This will amount to highs being able to climb into the low 50s with dew points slowly increasing to the low 30s throughout the day.
(Rest of Today) A nice start to the holiday week is underway with high pressure in control of the weather pattern across the TN Valley. This will also keep clear skies in place for the forecast for the remainder of the day, helping to modify the airmass from the late weekend cold front. As such, current temps in the upper 30s/lower 40s will warm into the 50-55F range, with cooler temps E/warmer temps W.
310 AM CST Mon Dec 23 2024 - A few weather systems will bring periodic chances for precipitation through the weekend, with the first being today as a cold front works through the area.
Cooler Christmas Day as a upper level trof moves across the state with best moisture fields residing across northern half of the state.