Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
(Today through Friday) Models and sfc analyses depict a deepening trough/low complex Migrating NE across the E CONUS and pushing the Atlantic ridge away from the area. The mid-lvl ridge is also weakening and pushing east ahead of the trough. Shower activity will linger into Friday morning, but model solutions show good consensus in rapidly pushing the parent trough/low complex northward and into the Great Lakes area. For Friday afternoon, an amplifying ridge will expand across the region In the wake of the FROPA, bringing a much drier and stable air mass. High pressure will center over the GOMEX and veering winds across SoFlo to a more NE flow.
Winds will be breezy (gusting 25-30MPH) from the northwest, advecting cooler air into the area for the day.
The upper trof over the area will be rapidly shifting eastward overnight thru tomorrow morning, and an associated cold front will sweep thru the area quickly overnight thru the morning hours. After the trof exists rapidly to the east, northwesterly flow will settle in aloft, with ridging to the west.
Warm and dry conditions will continue through Thursday with high pressure in place.
This should be the case for the next several hours before we have to start turning our attention to the upper low with this system and its affects on the mid-state today. Across the board, models continue to show showers and thundersorms developing late this morning and into the afternoon hours as the upper low begins to lift out of the region. These storms are just out ahead of the cold front and with the help of some compressional heating ahead of the front, a few hundred J/Kg of surface CAPE become possible. Speaking of winds and wind fields, as the cold front swings through here this afternoon, non-thunderstorms winds are expected to get gusty.
The upper level low that plagued the region for the early to middle part of this work week has shifted eastward into Arkansas, and the back edge of the associated precipitation, located east of I-49 at present, is on its way out.
(Today through Friday) Water vapor imagery this morning reveals a trough lifting off to our east as a ridge begins to shift across the Western US. At the surface, high pressure has settled into the region. Northerly winds and clear skies will allow for temps to fall into the low to mid 50s for much of the area this morning. With that said, a secondary surge of high pressure today may kick our winds up enough for a brief period of elevated fire conditions around mid day.
1151 PM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024 (This evening through Thursday) Early this afternoon, skies were gradually clearing underneath an upper-level trough that was residing over west central Texas. Tomorrow, high pressure should gradually build in from the north. Given the lack of cloud cover expected, temperatures should be a bit warmer and reach the low 70s for the Big Country where the coolest airmass will be in place.
1155 PM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024 Cold front has pushed through the forecast area bringing cooler temperatures and lower dewpoints. Locally a cold front is moving east across Tyler, Hardin, and Jefferson with a few showers and storms along the boundary. Cooler and drier air will filter in tonight with near normal temperatures expected through Friday.
/NEW/ /Through Friday/ The workweek will come to an end with pleasant and tranquil weather now that the upper low which brought the past few days of thunderstorm activity is moving off to the east. The low humidity and southerly breeze will make for a pleasant day with seasonal daytime temperatures reaching the 70s and 80s. The sun will be filtered by some high clouds from the Pacific riding over the top of mid-level ridging.
(Today through Friday Night) Quieter weather in store for today as high pressure continues to settle in and northwesterly flow pulls in drier and cooler air. High pressure will continue off to the east on Friday, and winds will become east to southeasterly as a result.
THe highest chances of rain are over northwest Illinois.
(Today and tonight) Northwesterly flow aloft today and tonight between the departed mid/upper level trough lifting northeastward up the Ohio Valley and upper level ridging moving eastward across Arizona and New Mexico will result in fair weather across the forecast area.
A low pressure system will provide periods of gusty winds, rain and mountain snow, and cooler temperatures Friday and over the weekend. Gusts along exposed ridges in the Sierra will range from 40-60 mph by the afternoon, with gusts upwards of 20-30 mph in most northeast CA and far western NV valleys.
- Pattern change with colder temperatures and precipitation including winter weather WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: An upper ridge builds over the area today into late Friday which will warm our temperatures up to well above average. At the same time a Pacific trough and upper level Low will dig unusually far south along the West Coast during the weekend.
604 AM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024 (Today through Friday afternoon) As the upper low continues to move off to the east, subsidence in its wake and a building ridge will maintain mostly clear skies. Mid-level ridging continues to build into Friday although with more clouds than today, with above average temperatures around 5 degrees above normal, and near or above 80 everywhere, along with 90s making an appearance over the Reeves County Plains and in the Rio Grande valleys.
Surface obs reflect the humid air along the island chain this morning with temperatures in the upper 70s and dewpoints in the mid 70s as we wait for the arrival of a cold front that is currently over the eastern Gulf. High pressure centered near Bermuda will maintain moderate to fresh south to southeast breezes across the Florida Keys this morning, with strong breezes in the southern and eastern waters. In the wake of the front, breezes will shift to the northeast to east as another high pressure system moves across the Southeast and into the western North Atlantic.
Showers and thunderstorms will taper off throughout the day as a cold front pulls away.
653 AM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024 (Today through Friday) Today will be a mixed bag of weather with showers, some sun, wind, a few non-severe thunderstorms, and a cold frontal passage. Satellite imagery shows a cold core upper trough near the Mississippi River. Scattered to numerous showers will develop east of the upper trough, impacting mainly north Alabama throughout the day. Clearing and much cooler tonight with lows in the 40s. Sunny, breezy and warmer on Friday with highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s.
-Stalley Previous Discussion: /Through Friday/ The workweek will come to an end with pleasant and tranquil weather now that the upper low which brought the past few days of thunderstorm activity is moving off to the east.
The upper trough will swing across the area today, and this will kick a few more showers and possibly a storm mainly this morning into the early afternoon hours.
High temperatures will remain above-normal for the next few days underneath a ridge of high pressure.
One more day of warm and dry conditions today before the cool down for Friday and into the weekend in association with the approaching amplified upper level trough with the prominent closed low at its base. Models are still consistent with the upper level closed low taking aim south of our area along the coast.
High pressure will keep warm and dry weather across the region today before southerly winds strengthen and temperatures start to cool on Friday.
High pressure will be in place over western Montana and north central Idaho today. A low pressure system moving southwards along the west coast will shift the flow aloft to southwesterly by Friday. The large low pressure system will move inland over southern California this weekend, transitioning the Northern Rockies to westerly flow aloft. The low pressure system will push warm air up from the central United States.
622 AM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024 (Today) An upper level trough is forecast to continue to move eastward through the TN Valley this morning before lifting northeastward. CAMs are indicating these will continue through the early afternoon with the arrival of the cold front, bringing risks of lightning and brief, heavy rainfall.
This should be the case for the next several hours before we have to start turning our attention to the upper low with this system and its affects on the mid-state today. Across the board, models continue to show showers and thunderstorms developing late this morning and into the afternoon hours as the upper low begins to lift out of the region. These storms are just out ahead of the cold front and with the help of some compressional heating ahead of the front, a few hundred J/Kg of surface CAPE become possible. Speaking of winds and wind fields, as the cold front swings through here this afternoon, non-thunderstorms winds are expected to get gusty.
619 AM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024 (Today through Friday) Water vapor imagery this morning reveals a trough lifting off to our east as a ridge begins to shift across the Western US. At the surface, high pressure has settled into the region. Northerly winds and clear skies will allow for temps to fall into the low to mid 50s for much of the area this morning. With that said, a secondary surge of high pressure today may kick our winds up enough for a brief period of elevated fire conditions around mid day.
621 AM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024 Showers and thunderstorms will taper off throughout the day as a cold front pulls away.
621 AM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024 (Today through Friday Night) Quieter weather in store for today as high pressure continues to settle in and northwesterly flow pulls in drier and cooler air. High pressure will continue off to the east on Friday, and winds will become east to southeasterly as a result.
609 AM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024 (Today through Friday) Upper ridging will move over the Southern Plains today and Friday. At the surface, high pressure begins to move towards South Central Texas through the late afternoon, eventually settling east over the Gulf on Friday. Highs range from the upper 70s to low 80s in the eastern half of the area to the low to upper 80s further west.
This low will move NE later today. Cloud cover is currently moving back over the area and these clouds will remain until afternoon, and yes, there could be some light rain with these clouds over mainly the northern third of the area as the H7 thermal trough moves through.
Mostly sunny today with temperatures continuing to trend warmer. A couple degrees cooler on Friday with isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms across much of northern and portions of central NV.
612 AM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024 (Today and tonight) Northwesterly flow aloft today and tonight between the departed mid/upper level trough lifting northeastward up the Ohio Valley and upper level ridging moving eastward across Arizona and New Mexico will result in fair weather across the forecast area.
A weak cold front, currently poised over south-central Kansas, will move into our area within the next few hours and bring a drier air mass into our area. Behind the front, high pressure will begin to enter our area from the high plains which will cause the pressure gradient to tighten.
/Issued 1144 PM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024/ /Through Friday/ The workweek will come to an end with pleasant and tranquil weather now that the upper low which brought the past few days of thunderstorm activity is moving off to the east.
757 AM EDT Thu Apr 11 2024 (Today through Friday) Models and sfc analyses depict a deepening trough/low complex Migrating NE across the E CONUS and pushing the Atlantic ridge away from the area. The mid-lvl ridge is also weakening and pushing east ahead of the trough. Shower activity will linger into Friday morning, but model solutions show good consensus in rapidly pushing the parent trough/low complex northward and into the Great Lakes area. For Friday afternoon, an amplifying ridge will expand across the region In the wake of the FROPA, bringing a much drier and stable air mass. High pressure will center over the GOMEX and veering winds across SoFlo to a more NE flow.
353 PM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024 - Near-record to record high temperatures over the weekend with highs into the lower 90s across at least the southern third of the DDC forecast area.
Ridging aloft dominates this afternoon with warm temperatures as highs in Tucson approach 90 degrees.
Current observations show the highest wind gusts near 35 mph are currently over Shelby County with similar values to the north and south of there. Showers and thunderstorms will taper off throughout the day as a cold front pulls away.
In fact we couldn't ask for a much better April day! At the mid- levels, all of Texas is on the NVA side of the trough, leading to our clear and sunny day. At the surface, high pressure has settled in across east Texas, allowing winds to be fairly light across the region. Overnight, the high should shift eastward and allow weak southerly flow to develop. Broad low pressure should develop in the lee of the Rockies Friday morning.
1151 AM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024 (Today through Friday afternoon) As the upper low continues to move off to the east, subsidence in its wake and a building ridge will maintain mostly clear skies. Mid-level ridging continues to build into Friday although with more clouds than today, with above average temperatures around 5 degrees above normal, and near or above 80 everywhere, along with 90s making an appearance over the Reeves County Plains and in the Rio Grande valleys.
1246 PM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024 (Today through Friday Night) Quieter weather in store for today as high pressure continues to settle in and northwesterly flow pulls in drier and cooler air. High pressure will continue off to the east on Friday, and winds will become east to southeasterly as a result.
(Rest of today through Friday) A cold front is currently making its way down along the Florida peninsula, with a robust line of convection currently impacting north/central FL. With breezy southerly to southwesterly winds prevailing today, expect high temperatures to reach the lower 90s across much of South FL. Conditions will be more seasonable tomorrow, with highs in the low-mid 80s.
As the upper trough continues to track east, we should see markedly improved conditions later this afternoon. The upper trough will swing across the area today, and this will kick a few more showers and possibly a storm mainly this morning into the early afternoon hours.
The lighter winds will combine with clear skies and dry air to allow temperatures to fall into the upper 30s across some the climatologically cooler locations of northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas.
(This evening through Friday) Current water vapor imagery shows the upper level trough tracking through the mid-Atlantic and Ohio River valley this afternoon. As this continues to lift northeastward, northwest flow aloft will begin to flatten as an upper level ridge tracks in from the west. These breezy southwest winds will help boost high temperatures tomorrow into the low to mid 80s across the region.
1243 PM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024 (Today and tonight) Northwesterly flow aloft today and tonight between the departed mid/upper level trough lifting northeastward up the Ohio Valley and upper level ridging moving eastward across Arizona and New Mexico will result in fair weather across the forecast area.
(Rest of today through Friday) Showers with a few embedded thunderstorms continue to push generally northeastward as surface frontal system pushes through mid state region with broad upper level low pressure center influences starting to move across TN River Valley Region as the noontime hour approaches. Lows tonight will fall closer to seasonal normal values with highs on Friday as skies continue to clear and ridging influences building in from the west result in highs now a few degrees below seasonal normal values, generally spanning the 60s.
(This evening through Friday night) Upper level ridging is starting to take shape over the western CONUS this afternoon, and will transition eastward toward the Plains by tomorrow.
The upper level low will pass to the north late this evening and into the overnight hours. Drier and cooler air will advect into the region overnight. Overnight lows will be cooler with lows in the mid 50s to low 60s for most of the area.
112 PM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024 (Rest of today through Friday) Showers with a few embedded thunderstorms continue to push generally northeastward as surface frontal system pushes through mid state region with broad upper level low pressure center influences starting to move across TN River Valley Region as the noontime hour approaches. Lows tonight will fall closer to seasonal normal values with highs on Friday as skies continue to clear and ridging influences building in from the west result in highs now a few degrees below seasonal normal values, generally spanning the 60s.
(Tonight through Friday night) The deterministic NWP model runs predict a slow progressive upper pattern, with an upper trough axis moving eastward over the northeastern CONUS, while an upper ridge approaches the central CONUS, during the period.
(Now through Friday) The clouds and isolated showers will continue to push east and out of the area through this evening as the upper low over the Tennessee Valley continues to move northeast. A cooler and drier airmass will move into the area tonight as high pressure builds in. High pressure continues to build into the area on Friday providing for sunny skies and seasonably warm temperatures in the lower to middle 70s.
WV imagery shows an upper ridge over the western CONUS, leaving West Texas and Southeast New Mexico under northwest flow aloft and CAVU conditions. Tonight, the ridge will move through the area. Surface ridging on the Gulf Coast, and troughing over the west will crank up a 45+kt LLJ over the lower Trans Pecos/Permian Basin, keeping winds elevated and overnight minimums ~ 3-5F above normal, despite clear skies. Friday, an upper low off the west coast approaches the Bay Area, nudging the ridge east and putting the area under southwest flow aloft on the backside of the ridge.
Temperatures will remain above-normal for the next few days underneath a ridge of high pressure. Temperatures will trend lower over the weekend with an approaching area of low pressure, which will also bring an increase in winds area wide as well as some showers to the higher elevations of Inyo County, Esmeralda and Nye counties.
1239 PM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024 (Today through Friday) Upper ridging will move over the Southern Plains today and Friday. At the surface, high pressure begins to move towards South Central Texas through the late afternoon, eventually settling east over the Gulf on Friday. Highs range from the upper 70s to low 80s in the eastern half of the area to the low to upper 80s further west.
Cold front continues to push through with cooler and drier air sinking into the area. The L/W trough continues to slide east with northwest flow over the area.
1250 PM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024 (Today through Friday) Water vapor imagery this morning reveals a trough lifting off to our east as a ridge begins to shift across the Western US. At the surface, high pressure has settled into the region. Northerly winds and clear skies will allow for temps to fall into the low to mid 50s for much of the area this morning. With that said, a secondary surge of high pressure today may kick our winds up enough for a brief period of elevated fire conditions around mid day.
A weakening cold front will bring showers inland throughout this afternoon and tonight across all of western Washington.
Gusty NW winds have accompanied an otherwise nice day across the area today as dry air advects across the region on northwesterly flow behind a potent upper trough moving east of the lower MS Valley.
mid 50s for H-town proper and in the lower 60s at the immediate coast. This is going to allow for the return of on- shore winds and the gradual increase of low-level moisture and warmer temperatures heading into the weekend. This could help to keep highs in the lower 80s over most locales tomorrow afternoon.
1250 PM MDT Thu Apr 11 2024 GOES Satellite imagery this afternoon shows a broad trough of low pressure moving southward along the Washington coast, with high clouds moving eastward across the Northern Rockies. This trough will slowly move southward into California and eventually the Great Basin through this weekend.
(Rest of Today) A shearing mid-level vort max will lift rapidly north- northeastward from the western TN Valley into the Upper OH Valley over the course of the day, in the flow ahead of an amplifying northern stream trough digging into the Upper MS Valley. Regarding the Wind Advisory, although current surface observations suggest that most of the region is below criteria, gradient winds are expected to increase considerably (sustained 25 MPH/gusts 35 MPH) immediately ahead of the synoptic cold front (and will remain strong for several hours in its wake).
The lone exception will be out west across the higher terrain of northern Val Verde and Edwards counties where an increase in southeasterly winds is anticipated mainly after Midnight.
Showery regime will remain mostly north of I-40 and along higher terrain tomorrow with cooler temperatures. Although not cold, low levels will be cooler which may support small hail with any shower tomorrow. The deepening and departing low to the north and east and high pressure building in from Texas, will keep winds elevated everywhere tomorrow afternoon with gusts in the 20's and 30's mph. Winds will remain elevated over the higher terrain tonight with gusts nearing 40 mph persisting into tomorrow.
Expect periods of gusty winds and cooler temperatures during this time.
The trough will swing through the northern half of the state through the late afternoon and into the early evening, with light scattered showers accompanying the trough. Behind the trough, northwesterly flow will bring cool and drier air, with clouds clearing slowly from west to east beginning in the early evening.
The upper level trough responsible for the unsettled pattern which defined the first half of this week will be well on its way to the east, moving up the Appalachians, while a large upper level ridge builds in over the Front Range of the Rocky Mountains, progressing east over the Great Plains through the course of the day Friday.
248 PM EDT Thu Apr 11 2024 (This afternoon through Friday) 500mb longwave trough moving through the Gulf States this afternoon. At the surface, low pressure stretches from the Ohio Valley back to northern MS/AL. The low will continue to push off to the NE through the period dragging a cold front through the CWA.
Deterministic forecast models/ensembles continue to depict mid-level ridging beginning to build tonight through Friday night. Finally, Friday night will feature warmer conditions with higher but still comfortable humidity levels.
Warmer than average temperatures continue until Friday, with high temperatures reaching 10 to 20 degrees above normal. Another disturbance moves through Central California late Friday through the weekend that will result in cooler temperatures and a chance for precipitation.
pdf Gusty W/SW winds will continue behind the cold front passage through the evening across northeast Florida and southeast Georgia.
1249 PM MDT Thu Apr 11 2024 Dry NW flow was over the forecast area ahead of a ridge axis over W MT. Friday will be a very warm day with highs in the 70s over most locations as the upper ridge moves overhead.
Mid and high level clouds are moving in as a cold front over the eastern Gulf is approaching the area.
609 PM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024 (This evening through Friday night) Upper level ridging is starting to take shape over the western CONUS this afternoon, and will transition eastward toward the Plains by tomorrow.