Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Storms will become increasingly confined to the higher terrain across far eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas during the afternoon hours.
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: The strong ridge of high pressure today over most of the western states has reached its influence even this far northward through Montana. FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: Confidence is high on the warmer temperatures today and cooler temperatures on Thursday. DISCUSSION: High pressure in control over the region is keeping calm conditions in place for NE MT TAF sites.
Scattered showers and storms around the edge of this trough will rotate in through the forecast area through the remainder of the afternoon. For tomorrow, westerly flow begins to take over as the trough lifts out and the upper level ridge across the Florida Peninsula begins to rebuild.
/16/ Persistent upper-level troughing will drive the majority of weather activity through the next 48-60 hours. This particular trough axis is oriented mostly along the I-30 corridor and will meander parallel to this area, not just instigating convection but also focusing higher moisture levels (reaching above 75th percentile in climatology in some cases). Some patchy fog could develop overnight across the region, but this package only includes it at sites with the highest confidence.
1142 AM MDT Wed Aug 13 2025 - Hot today/Thursday with elevated to near-critical fire weather conditions for parts of northeastern WY/southwestern SD - Slight risk (level 2 of 5) of severe thunderstorms later this afternoon/evening - Better QPF chances this weekend, but low confidence in details 08z surface analysis had lee trough from central MT through central WY with weak boundary from the MT/WY line through northern SD. Water vapour loop featured upper ridge over the southwest CONUS with west/northwest flow over the northern Plains. Plume of steep mid-level lapse rates ahead of it as well as surface moisture return ahead of lee trough will create 1-1. Thursday, upper ridge slides eastward putting CWA under southwest flow aloft. Thermal ridge peaks with a 90% chance (HREF) of 100F from Hot Springs to Philip.
126 PM EDT Wed Aug 13 2025 The threat for showers and thunderstorms will continue into tonight as a weak cold front drops south through the area.
130 PM EDT Wed Aug 13 2025 - Cooler today and tonight, but high temperatures rebounding above- normal to near-normal for the late week.
203 PM EDT Wed Aug 13 2025 A cold front comes through tonight, bringing an end to the heat and humidity.
High temperatures will generally be in the low to mid 90s, increasing to the mid to upper 90s this weekend.
- Cooler conditions are expected tomorrow, with a warming trend after through the weekend. Hot temperatures won't last for too much longer as a cold front will slide south from Canada through North- Central MT later tonight through Thursday morning. This will bring cooler temperatures to North- Central MT for Thursday, dropping to below normal. This cold front will also try to develop isolated showers along the Hi-line tomorrow, mainly near the MT and Canadian border. Heading into the weekend, a southwest flow aloft pattern returns as an upper-level ridge builds in across the Great Plains of the U.
Some of the hi-res guidance has the trough moving more north into South Dakota while other guidance keeps this feature along the border.
621 PM CDT Wed Aug 13 2025 (This evening through Thursday) Rain chances will remain on the high end through the rest of the afternoon and into the evening, especially across the eastern half of Alabama. In the meantime, the 500mb ridge will begin to broaden and expand westward over the northern Gulf Coast by Thursday with a westerly flow developing over the atmospheric profile. We're seeing storms just like that currently over the Golden Triangle, north of the Highway 82 corridor in Mississippi.
726 PM EDT Wed Aug 13 2025 A weak cold front will cross the area this evening producing a few showers or an isolated thunderstorm.
650 PM EDT Wed Aug 13 2025 The threat for showers and thunderstorms will continue into tonight as a weak cold front drops south through the area.
Hot weather sticks around for the rest of the week, but weakening high pressure will provide several days of cooling. Low pressure will anchor in the eastern tier of the Gulf of Alaska this weekend, directing abnormally rich moisture into the Pacific Northwest.
847 PM EDT Wed Aug 13 2025 A cold front will slowly track across Maine from northwest to southeast overnight and Thursday.
820 PM EDT Wed Aug 13 2025 - Cooler today and tonight, but high temperatures rebounding above- normal to near-normal for the late week.
/16/ Persistent upper-level troughing will drive the majority of weather activity through the next 48-60 hours. This particular trough axis is oriented mostly along the I-30 corridor and will meander parallel to this area, not just instigating convection but also focusing higher moisture levels (reaching above 75th percentile in climatology in some cases).
727 PM EDT Wed Aug 13 2025 A cold front comes through tonight, bringing an end to the heat and humidity.
1057 PM EDT Wed Aug 13 2025 A cold front will slowly track across Maine from northwest to southeast overnight and Thursday.
521 PM PDT Wed Aug 13 2025 Updated at 1200 AM PDT Wed Aug 13 2025 - A pattern change will bring a more robust marine layer, cooler temperatures, and some morning drizzle today.
1037 PM EDT Wed Aug 13 2025 * Cold front moves in from the north tonight and slows/stalls over the state tonight.
Deep layered ridging is in control of our area with a surface through lower level ridge reaching across the Florida Peninsula. Meanwhile, an upper level ridge is centered over Florida. Forecast soundings suggest the lower level inhibition should weaken some, as is often the case. Expect seasonable conditions with lows in the lower 80s and dew points remaining in the mid to upper 70s. Ridging will remain across South and Central Florida through the overnight period.
Weak ridge axis remains over the southern peninsula with mainly light/variable to S-SW winds locally.
1031 PM EDT Wed Aug 13 2025 * Cold front moves in from the north tonight and slows/stalls over the state tonight.
200 AM EDT Thu Aug 14 2025 Any remaining showers and thunderstorms should exit the region overnight as a cold front drifts south. After areas of morning fog, a gradual clearing trend is expected, though a few more showers and storms will be possible across the ridges.
Expect the low clouds and some fog to continue expanding this morning. An upper trough swinging over the Southeast as well as a surface front stalling over Tennessee will keep medium to high chances of showers and storms in the forecast for Thursday afternoon.
(Today and tonight) The polar jet, albeit anemic, is situated along and north of the Canadian border with high pressure at H2 extending from TXKF to MMSL with a subtle trough west of Baja del Norte. A trough at both H2 and H5 across northern MB/SK is much too weak and far north to have much of an impact on our weather which is firmly under the influence of a 593dam high.
A broad low pressure area has formed along the tropical wave, currently located over of the Yucatan Peninsula, and is expected to track west-northwestward across the southwestern Gulf later tonight.
If you do encounter fog, make sure to slow down and use low-beam headlights! An upper trough swinging over the Southeast as well as a surface front stalling over Tennessee will keep medium to high chances of showers and storms in the forecast for Thursday afternoon.
349 AM EDT Thu Aug 14 2025 - High pressure brings near normal temperatures and less humid conditions to close out the work week.
308 AM EDT Thu Aug 14 2025 * Cold front moves in from the north tonight and slows/stalls over the state tonight.
Today looks to be the most active day of the period as the ridge has not become fully established over the region quite yet.
1002 PM PDT Wed Aug 13 2025 Updated at 1200 AM PDT Wed Aug 13 2025 - A pattern change will bring a more robust marine layer, cooler temperatures, and some morning drizzle today.
- Cooler conditions linger into Thursday but above average temperatures return this weekend. Weak high pressure at the surface continues to influence the weather across eastern Kentucky this morning, while a weak upper trough is likely to have some impact across the region by this afternoon.
- Low daily chances of showers and thunderstorms mainly confined to the higher terrain across far eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas during the afternoon hours. Weak upper trough axis will continue to shift east of the region today as upper level ridging expands back across the Southern Plains. This will result in hotter temps and lower overall coverage of afternoon convection, except for an isolated shower or storm over the high terrain of NW AR and SE OK.
135 AM EDT Thu Aug 14 2025 - Cooler tonight, but high temperatures rebounding above- normal to near-normal for the late week.
Heat indices rise into the low triple digits west of the Cumberland Plateau.
High temperatures will generally be in the low to mid 90s, increasing to the mid to upper 90s this weekend. Thursday is generally a rinse and repeat of today as the longwave trough still stretches into Texas. High temperatures will remain in the low to mid 90s, with a few locations seeing heat indices in the low 100s to near 105.
143 AM EDT Thu Aug 14 2025 A cold front will slowly track across Maine from northwest to southeast overnight and Thursday.
211 AM MDT Thu Aug 14 2025 - Hot today with elevated to near-critical fire weather conditions for parts of northeastern WY/southwestern SD - Heat indices 100F+ over south-central SD this afternoon - Isolated strong/severe thunderstorms possible through the weekend 07z surface analysis had lee trough from eastern MT into eastern CO. Water vapour had upper ridge over the southwest CONUS and westerly flow aloft over the northern Plains. Evolution of upper ridge the main forecast concern. Today/tonight, upper ridge shifts east creating southwest flow aloft over the region. Lee trough slides eastward into central SD, which may be the focus for surface-based convection late this afternoon/evening. Moisture pooling ahead of trough will combine with temperatures well into the 90s to push heat indices into the lower 100s over south- central SD.
244 AM EDT Thu Aug 14 2025 General troughiness will continue across the Carolinas over the next couple of days before high pressure builds back into the area this weekend. Key Messages - Continued risk of heavy rain and flooding this afternoon and evening Latest analysis shows high pressure offshore, troughing inland and weak front pushing into the Mid-Atlantic.
The associated mid-level ridge axis stretches across the North Atlantic, bisecting the eastern Florida somewhere between the Treasure and Gold coasts. Nighttime satellite imagery highlights mostly clear skies across the Keys, with available land-based surface observations reporting temperatures generally in the lower to mid 80s at this early Thursday morning hour.
230 AM EDT Thu Aug 14 2025 -High pressure continues quiet and dry weather today and tomorrow with some brief periods of haze.
Updated at 1200 AM PDT Wed Aug 13 2025 - A pattern change will bring a more robust marine layer, cooler temperatures, and some morning drizzle today.
- Isolated to widely scattered PM showers and thunderstorms will return for Thursday through the weekend with slightly cooler temperatures this weekend.
204 AM MDT Thu Aug 14 2025 KEY MESSAGES: - Cooler temperatures today behind a cold front early this morning.
203 AM EDT Thu Aug 14 2025 High pressure will build across the area today and tonight before departing to the east.
459 AM EDT Thu Aug 14 2025 After areas of morning fog, a gradual clearing trend is expected, though a few more showers and storms will be possible across the ridges.
214 AM EDT Thu Aug 14 2025 Widely scattered thunderstorms are possible today with a cold frontal passage but most locations will likely remain dry.
1208 AM EDT Thu Aug 14 2025 - High pressure brings near normal temperatures and less humid conditions to close out the work week. VFR skies will prevail through this TAF period as high pressure slides through the central Great Lakes. Main item for note in the near term is the near surface cold front that is currently working southward.
118 AM EDT Thu Aug 14 2025 Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected tonight as a cold front crosses the region.
Motorists should be cautious for quick visibility changes, especially on roads or bridges near area waterways.
757 AM EDT Thu Aug 14 2025 After areas of morning fog, a gradual clearing trend is expected, though a few more showers and storms will be possible across the ridges.
608 AM CDT Thu Aug 14 2025 - Hot and humid conditions will arrive Friday and continue through the weekend with highs in the low to mid 90s and heat index values in the 100-105 range. A upper level ridge of high pressure over the southwestern CONUS this morning will begin to slide eastward into the western Plains today. Friday the upper level ridge axis will move directly over the local area and stronger WAA will prevail allowing highs to rise into the low to mid 90s. These temperatures combined with dewpoints in the low to mid 70s will yield heat index values of 100-105.
649 AM CDT Thu Aug 14 2025 (Tonight through Friday) High pressure will slowly strengthen and move over the southeast CONUS with low and mid level flow transitioning to out of the west and northwest over Alabama. With the high strengthening and less coverage of convection, temperatures will reach the low 90s today with heat indices near the triple digits across the southern counties. Friday will be a couple of degrees warmer.
(Today and tonight) The polar jet, albeit anemic, is situated along and north of the Canadian border with high pressure at H2 extending from TXKF to MMSL with a subtle trough west of Baja del Norte. A trough at both H2 and H5 across northern MB/SK is much too weak and far north to have much of an impact on our weather which is firmly under the influence of a 593dam high. Moisture at the lower levels remains pretty scant though the LLJ should increase to around 35K early Friday morning.
Given less rainfall coverage, temperatures will continue their upward creep today, reaching the low 90s for most. As a result, highs in the low to mid 90s combined with 70s dewpoints will lead to afternoon heat index values once again reaching 100-104 for many areas Friday afternoon. With the area remaining on the periphery of the ridge, scattered diurnal convection can be expected Friday afternoon and evening.
618 AM EDT Thu Aug 14 2025 -High pressure continues quiet and dry weather today and tomorrow with some brief periods of haze.
- Isolated to widely scattered PM showers and thunderstorms will return for Thursday through the weekend with slightly cooler temperatures this weekend. For Friday, all models still show the mid to upper level flow backing into the south ahead of a quick moving Pacific upper level trough. Kept POP between 30 to 50 percent across a good portion of southeast Wyoming as the upper level trough slides northeast and then dissipates. Again, convective parameters and 0-6km shear aren't all that impressive as the upper level ridge axis to our southeast is still pretty strong, so severe weather risk should remain pretty low. Western Nebraska may miss out on most of this activity through early Friday evening due to the timing of the upper level trough.
728 AM EDT Thu Aug 14 2025 High pressure will build across the area today and tonight before departing to the east.
That leaves us with zonal flow directly overhead, between an upper ridge to the south and a trough up north. Even out by Pierre, away from these waves but with neutral flow aloft could overachieve given how hot they got yesterday (104) and ample low level moisture, and an inverted trough overhead.
Will continue to see an influx of subtropical moisture across the area today, however, the lower levels will remain rather dry. With regard to Thursday's heat, the upper level ridge and thermal axis will shift across eastern Colorado. Highs will be very close to records, with strong agreement of highs 98-99F for Denver, but a 20-30% chance we reach 100F given the location of the thermal ridge and dry ground. For Friday, models are still advertising an uptick in moisture around the periphery of the upper level ridge shifting to the east. Temperatures will still be quite warm given the proximity of the upper ridge, but a few degrees cooler with the uptick in moisture and shower/storm coverage.
626 AM EDT Thu Aug 14 2025 - High pressure brings near normal temperatures and less humid conditions to close out the work week.
Therefore thinking dews in the middle 60s will prevail with some areas dropping again to the low 60s. High temps in the low 90s look reasonable for most of the area however would expect a few locales to reach the middle 90s.
Temperatures are generally in the low 60s along the International Border with upper 60s in the southern Red River Valley. An upper low continues to move across northern Saskatchewan and into Manitoba this morning. H5 troughing extends southward, with a theta- e gradient boundary and associated cold front expected to traverse the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest. Southeast surface flow becomes more southerly this afternoon, allowing continued moisture return ahead of the cold front.
High pressure ridging moving overhead this morning begins to recede later today as troughing pushes in from the west. Thus, we can expect highs today to be warmer across the area for the most part, especially in the downslopes along the Lake Superior shoreline where we could see the mid to upper 70s. The only exception would be the south central and east where the Lake Michigan lake breeze limits temperature increases once it gets going this afternoon (expect the lower 70s for the most part). As the troughing moves overhead this evening into the overnight hours, we could see a few showers and storms sneak their way into the western U.
This will be especially pronounced in area river valleys and the lower Scioto Valley. The low-end diurnally-driven SHRA chances will wane past sunset, yielding dry conditions area-wide tonight. Temps tonight dip into the lower 60s in central OH (where the infiltration of dry air will be most pronounced) to the upper 60s in the Tri-State. Afternoon temps will be a degree or two warmer Friday than will be the case today -- generally topping out in the upper 80s to near 90 degrees by late afternoon. H5 ridge expands across the central and eastern CONUS for the beginning of the weekend.
Temperatures today will remain in the low 90s across the East Coast, but would reach the mid 90s across the southwest and interior early in the afternoon. Heat indices will reach the low 100s and will approach advisory criteria, but HREF probabilities for values greater than 104 deg F (for Miami-Dade and Broward counties), and values greater than 107 deg F (elsewhere across the CWA)remain below 30%.
(Today through Friday afternoon) The ever-present upper-level ridge is expected to remain centered over the Southern Great Plains today into Friday. With large-scale subsidence and plentiful sunshine expected for most under this ridge, hot temperatures are to be expected. Temperatures start a touch warmer due to increased cloud cover, but afternoon temperatures end up a touch cooler as the upper-ridge begins to shift out of our region.
537 AM CDT Thu Aug 14 2025 - Low daily chances of showers and thunderstorms mainly confined to the higher terrain across far eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas during the afternoon hours. Weak upper trough axis will continue to shift east of the region today as upper level ridging expands back across the Southern Plains. This will result in hotter temps and lower overall coverage of afternoon convection, except for an isolated shower or storm over the high terrain of NW AR and SE OK.
938 AM EDT Thu Aug 14 2025 Drier and more comfortable conditions return today behind an earlier passing cold front.
937 AM CDT Thu Aug 14 2025 - Low daily chances of showers and thunderstorms mainly confined to the higher terrain across far eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas during the afternoon hours. We are still looking at a couple of isolated showers this afternoon in the high terrain but dry elsewhere with hot conditions areawide. Weak upper trough axis will continue to shift east of the region today as upper level ridging expands back across the Southern Plains. This will result in hotter temps and lower overall coverage of afternoon convection, except for an isolated shower or storm over the high terrain of NW AR and SE OK.
645 AM EDT Thu Aug 14 2025 * Cold front moves in from the north tonight and slows/stalls over the state tonight.
The exception is downtown Dallas where the heat island has kept temperatures in the low 80s. 30 Previous Discussion: /Through Friday/ A positive tilt upper trough will gradually weaken while lingering over east and Central Texas the next couple of days, bringing a slight chance of afternoon storms for areas generally south of I-20 and east of I-35 through Friday. Meanwhile, a mid/upper ridge currently located near the Front Range will shift east through the Southern Plains tonight and Friday. Increasing heights aloft associated with the ridge will return temperatures to near or slightly above normal values for mid August by Friday.
908 AM EDT Thu Aug 14 2025 The latest high res models are still showing highs getting up into the lower 90s across the east coast metro areas and mid 90s over the interior areas. This will lead to heat indices getting up into the lower 100s over the east coast metro areas to lower to mid 100s over the interior/west coast metro areas. Temperatures today will remain in the low 90s across the East Coast, but would reach the mid 90s across the southwest and interior early in the afternoon. Heat indices will reach the low 100s and will approach advisory criteria, but HREF probabilities for values greater than 104 deg F (for Miami-Dade and Broward counties), and values greater than 107 deg F (elsewhere across the CWA)remain below 30%.
High temperatures will start to climb starting tomorrow as well with temps being in the low to mid 90s along with rich tropical moisture lingering in the area.
200 PM EDT Thu Aug 14 2025 High pressure moves over the region for the next couple days, bringing a short stretch of dry weather.
103 PM EDT Thu Aug 14 2025 The latest high res models are still showing highs getting up into the lower 90s across the east coast metro areas and mid 90s over the interior areas. This will lead to heat indices getting up into the lower 100s over the east coast metro areas to lower to mid 100s over the interior/west coast metro areas. Temperatures today will remain in the low 90s across the East Coast, but would reach the mid 90s across the southwest and interior early in the afternoon. Heat indices will reach the low 100s and will approach advisory criteria, but HREF probabilities for values greater than 104 deg F (for Miami-Dade and Broward counties), and values greater than 107 deg F (elsewhere across the CWA)remain below 30%.
- Isolated to widely scattered PM showers and thunderstorms will return for today through the weekend with slightly cooler temperatures this weekend. The HRRR is more aligned with the HREF which aids in the higher confidence for the more lackluster outcome. Between the hi-res models shear looks to be between 18-24kts with a few hundred joules of CAPE as the upper level ridge seems to suppress most activity. Another week of hot and mostly dry weather expected for the region as an upper-level ridge remains largely parked overhead.
310 PM EDT Thu Aug 14 2025 Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms through early evening with a cold frontal passage.
139 PM EDT Thu Aug 14 2025 High pressure will build across the area today and tonight before departing to the east.