Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
The upstream cold front is currently over western North Dakota, somewhere along a Stanley to Dickinson line. Then behind this band will be the cold frontal passage, and behind the cold front will be more low clouds and spotty showers. Scattered high level clouds continue to move in from the south this afternoon and evening ahead of a upper level low moving through Nebraska into SD and MN. Another upper level wave moves in from southern Canada later tonight and into Tuesday which will bring increased precipitation chances, breezy conditions, and cooler temperatures. This secondary system is riding along a upper level ridge situated over the western United States. The front associated with the low pressure system works its way through the area sunrise on Tuesday bringing rain and instability to the area.
630 PM CDT Mon Oct 21 2024 - One more day of highs near 70 to our southeast before a cold front moves through. - Cooler temperatures but still above normal present for the rest of the week.
605 PM CDT Mon Oct 21 2024 (This afternoon through Tuesday night) The upper low that brought us cooler conditions and cloudy skies continues to track north and east of our area, setting the stage for an upper ridge to gradually build. Tuesday is expected to be fairly warm thanks to increasing geopotential heights within the upper ridge.
/Issued 1240 PM CDT Mon Oct 21 2024/ /Through Tuesday afternoon/ Dry and warm conditions will continue across the region with high pressure dominating the pattern to our east and an area of low pressure moving over the Central Plains today. Even warmer temperatures are in the forecast for tomorrow as a result of the warm veered flow with a few locations reaching the low 90s (10-15 degrees above normal for mid October). /Issued 304 PM CDT Mon Oct 21 2024/ /Tuesday Night Onward/ The upper low currently moving through Colorado and Kansas will swing towards the Midwest in the next day or so, with the longwave upper ridge building atop the southern CONUS. The re-amplification of the ridge and continued south-to-west winds at the surface and low-levels of the atmosphere will allow temperatures to continue warming as we head into midweek.
(This afternoon through Tuesday) Key Message: - Dry weather with slightly warmer temps will continue through Tue. The area is sandwiched between an upper low over the Central Plains and another due E of Jacksonville. Between these 2 features lies a weak, fairly narrow ridge from the OH Valley to S Louisiana. The first upper low will shift ENE to the S Great Lakes region and weaken through Tue as the Atlantic upper low remains about stationary. The ridge between these 2 features will gradually weaken as it shifts SE over the County Warning Area (CWA). At the surface, a ridge of high pressure from the mid- Atlantic states to the W Gulf of Mexico will gradually weaken. Daytime highs on Tue will range from the upper 60s across the NE mountains to the lower 80s across central GA.
759 PM EDT Mon Oct 21 2024 High pressure today will exit off the coast on Tuesday.
715 PM EDT Mon Oct 21 2024 (Rest of today through Tuesday) Models depict broad and deep high pressure dominating the eastern half of the CONUS, with SoFlo firmly enveloped in its southeastern periphery. Meanwhile, a mid level trough remains over the western Atlantic, which should remain in place during the short term. Tonight's lows will range from the low 70s over the interior and Gulf Coast, to the mid 70s over the East Coast.
(Tonight) High pressure layered across the mid Atlantic states remains in control of the overall wx pattern across the central TN Valley this Mon evening. Current temps have fallen predom into the upper 50s/mid 60s and with dew pts mainly in the lower/mid 40s coupled with light winds, overnight lows should have little trouble falling into the mid 40s/near 50F, under mostly clears skies.
Light showers continue as the cold front slowly sweeps through the PacNW with clearing behind the front. Precip has lightened up across the mountain zones with the cold front moving away.
Meanwhile, a ridge of high pressure continues to bring dry weather to the Mid-South this evening.
846 PM MDT Mon Oct 21 2024 - Cold frontal passage tonight.
25/Owen Previous short-term discussion: (This evening through Tuesday) Crystal clear skies remain over much of the eastern CONUS with a 1030mb ridge of high pressure centered over the Ohio River Valley. A 500mb ridge remains off to our southwest over far southern Texas and Mexico. With a dry easterly flow at the surface this afternoon, dewpoints will remain mostly in the 40s as high temperatures rise into the lower 80s areawide. We'll have one more chilly night tonight in some spots, dipping down into the 40s with a few warmer spots around 50 degrees. Dewpoints will increase into the 50s to near 60 across far southeastern counties, with highs continuing to warm into the low to mid 80s.
The combination of a robust high over the southeast and out off the Mid Atlantic coast and troughing near eastern Cuba will maintain moderate to fresh northeasterly breezes across Keys waters through the overnight period.
726 PM EDT Mon Oct 21 2024 High pressure remains in charge, with sunny days and warmer afternoons into midweek.
644 PM CDT Mon Oct 21 2024 (Tonight through Tuesday night) High pressure in control through the region will keep us in a quiet pattern through the short term period. the high tide this evening/tonight looks very similar, and the 1ft above predicted has held steady all day, so expect similar values for tonight.
624 PM CDT Mon Oct 21 2024 (This evening through Tuesday night) Dry high pressure will remain planted across the area, suppressing rain chances and keeping relative humidity seasonably pleasant. Low dewpoints and clear skies will allow overnight lows to fall into the low to mid 50s north and into the mid 50s to lower 60s south, while afternoon highs will rebound into the low to mid 80s.
730 PM EDT Mon Oct 21 2024 Dry weather is expected to prevail through the week, as high pressure remains in control.
Daytime dew points were adjusted toward the lower to mid 40s on average.
928 PM EDT Mon Oct 21 2024 High pressure will continue to prevail over the Ohio Valley, resulting in sunny skies, light wind, and mild temperatures.
1035 PM EDT Mon Oct 21 2024 High pressure remains in charge, with sunny days and warmer afternoons into midweek.
745 PM EDT Mon Oct 21 2024 - A few showers possible later Tuesday into Tuesday night - Cooler with showers late week - A few showers possible later Tuesday into Tuesday night A southwesterly low level jet moves into the area Tuesday into Tuesday night. - Cooler with showers late week A couple of cold front will move through the region this week.
659 PM CDT Mon Oct 21 2024 (Tonight through Tuesday night) An upper level ridge extends from Deep South Texas to the mid- Mississippi Valley and is forcing a low into the middle of the country this afternoon. The low level flow from the southeast will strengthen tonight and the airmass will become moister across the area. This will lead to increased overnight/morning cloudiness, but with the ridge aloft still no rain. With warm, moist advection and more clouds overnight lows will be warmer. Most places east of about Uvalde will be 5-10 degrees warmer Tuesday morning than they were today. Highs Tuesday will be a degree or two warmer however as clouds give way to mainly sunny skies.
(The rest of tonight) Isolated to scattered showers/storms will continue to be possible through tonight across northeast Oklahoma into northwest Arkansas as isentropic lift increases across the region and the tail end of an upper level low moving across the Central Plains impacts the area.
1019 PM EDT Mon Oct 21 2024 Wash, rinse, and repeat tonight and tomorrow, although overnight temperatures may bottom out a couple of degrees warmer than this morning. Afternoon temperatures will be similar to earlier today with some readings a couple of degrees warmer. Discussion: The strong high pressure over our area will gradually edge east during the period, but will continue to be the main influence on our weather.
415 PM MST Mon Oct 21 2024 Updated Aviation High pressure will lead to above normal temperatures for much of the next 7 days with high temperatures returning to the nineties, up to 5-10 degrees above normal during the second half of this week and this weekend. Longwave ridging will lead to above normal temperatures, with lower desert highs in the 90s beginning Tuesday.
(Tuesday through Wednesday) Upper trough to the north of the FA will continue to displace the stagnate ridge that has been parked over the region the last few days. At the surface, a similar theme as high pressure becomes displaced east of the FA, resulting in a more southerly sfc wind through the afternoon.
1150 PM CDT Mon Oct 21 2024 (Tonight through Tuesday night) High pressure in control through the region will keep us in a quiet pattern through the short term period. the high tide this evening/tonight looks very similar, and the 1ft above predicted has held steady all day, so expect similar values for tonight.
(Today and tonight) A sizable area of high pressure centered over the Mid-Atlantic states continues to maintain subsidence and northeast low-level flow across the region today and tonight. Highs above average in the lower to middle 80s away from the coast today.
This persistence pattern is courtesy of northeasterly flow between continental high pressure over West Virginia and an inverted trough extending to Tropical Storm Oscar, which is now immediately northeast of Cuba.
154 AM EDT Tue Oct 22 2024 High pressure will bring a prolonged period of dry and warm weather through Wednesday.
An amplified H5 upper trough continues to move across Saskatchewan and Manitoba this morning, which will merge with a weakening upper low in the Central Plains. Ahead of the main trough axis, a pre frontal trough is providing enough lift to accommodate light shower activity in eastern North Dakota. A weak thunderstorm or two is possible with this trough; however, instability continues to weaken and will struggle to support further thunderstorm development as the day progresses. Rain chances increase heading into midday as the main trough axis arrives and moves across the region. Much cooler air works into the area as the trough, and associated cold front, push to the east.
1055 PM MST Mon Oct 21 2024 Updated Aviation High pressure will lead to above normal temperatures for much of the next 7 days with high temperatures returning to the nineties, up to 5-10 degrees above normal during the second half of this week and this weekend. Longwave ridging will lead to above normal temperatures, with lower desert highs in the 90s beginning Tuesday.
High pressure aloft will continue building northward over much of New Mexico over the next several days.
High pressure will continue to dominate the region through Wednesday. It does need to be said that with the warmer temperatures and these lower dew points, RH values will likely mix out and there could be some readings in the 25-35 percent range.
(Today through Wednesday Night) An upper level low is currently located over the Central Plains making its way towards the Great Lakes region. this will likely bring a cold front across the state later today into Wednesday. High pressure will build in behind the front, continuing those calm and dry conditions across the state.
117 AM EDT Tue Oct 22 2024 Wash, rinse, and repeat tonight and tomorrow, although overnight temperatures may bottom out a couple of degrees warmer than this morning. Afternoon temperatures will be similar to earlier today with some readings a couple of degrees warmer. Discussion: The strong high pressure over our area will gradually edge east during the period, but will continue to be the main influence on our weather.
(Today through Wednesday) High pressure and relatively dry vertical moisture content means ongoing fair weather will persist.
Dry conditions and warmer temperatures continue for region for Tuesday.
1225 AM CDT Tue Oct 22 2024 (Tonight through Tuesday night) An upper level ridge extends from Deep South Texas to the mid- Mississippi Valley and is forcing a low into the middle of the country this afternoon. The low level flow from the southeast will strengthen tonight and the airmass will become moister across the area. This will lead to increased overnight/morning cloudiness, but with the ridge aloft still no rain. With warm, moist advection and more clouds overnight lows will be warmer. Most places east of about Uvalde will be 5-10 degrees warmer Tuesday morning than they were today. Highs Tuesday will be a degree or two warmer however as clouds give way to mainly sunny skies.
1241 AM CDT Tue Oct 22 2024 - One more day of highs near 70 to our southeast before a cold front moves through. - Cooler temperatures but still above normal present for the rest of the week.
Slightly better chances for rain develop this afternoon and evening across central Minnesota, as a band of showers develops along a cold front passing through the region. Temperatures will be cooler than yesterday but still warm ahead of the cold front, with highs in the low to mid 70s expected across most of central & southern Minnesota & all of western Wisconsin this afternoon.
1206 AM CDT Tue Oct 22 2024 (This evening through Wednesday) During the short term an upper level low will lift out of the southern/central Plains up toward the Great Lake region, and the upper level flow pattern will become northwesterly. A few showers may occur over the northwestern portions of the forecast area tonight as the low passes to the north. The northwesterly flow aloft will aid in driving a cold front down into the forecast area late on Wednesday, which will start to bring a slight cool-down to the state. It will probably arrive too late in the day to affect temperatures across central AR and southward, but areas to the north will see a wind shift and a bit of cooler air moving in.
132 AM EDT Tue Oct 22 2024 (Rest of today through Tuesday) Models depict broad and deep high pressure dominating the eastern half of the CONUS, with SoFlo firmly enveloped in its southeastern periphery. Meanwhile, a mid level trough remains over the western Atlantic, which should remain in place during the short term. Tonight's lows will range from the low 70s over the interior and Gulf Coast, to the mid 70s over the East Coast.
The mid to upper level flow out of the N/NW will bring in dry air, but breezy E/NE flow in the low levels will bring in enough moisture to support isolated to scattered showers (20-30% PoPs) across the Atlantic waters and East Coast metro each day. Tonight's lows will range from the low 70s over the interior and Gulf Coast, to the mid 70s over the East Coast.
1206 AM CDT Tue Oct 22 2024 (This afternoon through Tuesday night) The upper low that brought us cooler conditions and cloudy skies continues to track north and east of our area, setting the stage for an upper ridge to gradually build. Tuesday is expected to be fairly warm thanks to increasing geopotential heights within the upper ridge.
249 AM CDT Tue Oct 22 2024 The forecast for the upcoming week continues to feature dry and warmer conditions. Guidance continues to advertise a mid/upper trough pushing a cold front southward toward the area by this weekend, but indications are still that the front will stall as it approaches.
Today has seen the upper level ridge axis shift east into the Deep South, while an area of troughing pushes across the Central Plains. This trough's associated surface boundary will lose its organization as it drifts south and east, becoming all but indistinguishable on surface analysis by the time it arrives on the ArkLaTex's doorstep. Thus, while the great southern ridge reorganizes itself around a broad area of high pressure centered over Mexico and stretching from southern California to Florida, temperatures will be increasingly mild overnight, dropping into the low to mid 50s one more time Tuesday morning, followed by another warm afternoon with increasing mid to upper 80s and a milder night still as lows only drop into the middle 50s to lower 60s by daybreak Wednesday.
Tuesday and Wednesday, warming is expected across the entire area as high pressure builds over the region.
(Today through Wednesday) 500 mb high pressure is anticipated to be the dominant weather feature over Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley throughout the period.
146 AM EDT Tue Oct 22 2024 High pressure persists into midweek. A cold front crosses late Wednesday, then cool, dry weather returns to end the work week. Another warm day will unfold, with high temperatures expected to rise into the mid 70s to low 80s in the lowlands and mid 60s to 70s for the higher elevations. While high pressure and upper level ridging do begin to shift east, persistent dry air will sustain quiet weather throughout the day. Not expecting much if anything in the way of precipitation given poor dynamics/forcing and little moisture availability but a stray shower is possible, albeit unlikely, as the cold front pushes through our area.
(Today) The upper level pattern will modify a bit today as ridging becomes less pronounced as a closed low tracks northeast through the upper Midwest and into the Great Lakes. This will have little impact on weather locally, as high pressure remains dominant at the surface keeping dry air in place.
358 AM EDT Tue Oct 22 2024 High pressure over the Mid Atlantic region will continue to send unseasonably warm air into our region through Wednesday.
136 AM EDT Tue Oct 22 2024 High pressure today will exit off the coast on Tuesday.
High clouds streaming in from the west will keep temperatures in the low to mid 60s on Tuesday afternoon over the lowest valleys. Light snow expected above 6500 feet MSL with this cold front, but minimal accumulations. A upper-level trough will move northeast into northern Idaho this evening, bringing an end to light showers across northern Baker County, Oregon, and the West Central Mountains of Idaho. A weak transient ridge will follow on Tuesday, keeping temperatures slightly above the seasonal norm.
200 AM EDT Tue Oct 22 2024 High pressure will continue to prevail over the Ohio Valley, resulting in sunny skies, light wind, and mild temperatures. The cloud cover will lower somewhat on Wednesday as a dry cold front crosses the CWA in the late day. High pressure remains settled over the Ohio Valley tonight. Winds will increase from the ssw Tuesday afternoon and overnight, ahead of a cold front expected to cross from west to east on Wednesday. Dry weather is expected Wednesday since moisture will be lacking with the passage of a cold front, though winds may gust to 20 knots.
Current Water Vapor and upper air models show upper low over the central plains, with upper trough off the NW PAC coast. Surface map shows weak trough running through the western SD plains into NE, with a low pressure over western MT this afternoon. Associated cold front will limit highs to just the 50s and 60s for Tuesday, warming just slightly for Wednesday.
332 AM EDT Tue Oct 22 2024 High pressure across our area will weaken and then shift offshore through Wednesday. A strong cold front crosses our area Wednesday night.
- Cooler and more seasonable temperatures are expected for Wednesday.
304 AM EDT Tue Oct 22 2024 High pressure will bring a prolonged period of dry and warm weather through Wednesday.
10" - Cooler air arrives Tuesday night into Wednesday with temperatures back to normal levels.
338 AM CDT Tue Oct 22 2024 - Rain showers and breezy to windy northwest winds are expected today following a cold front that is passing through the forecast area. Winds will rapidly diminish this evening as the sun sets and high pressure begins working into western ND. High pressure is transitory, so while mostly clear skies are expected, winds likely won't become totally light through the entire night.
306 AM CDT Tue Oct 22 2024 - A cold front will make it's way southeast across the area today. - Cooler temperatures (but still near normal) are expected Wednesday behind the front.
153 AM EDT Tue Oct 22 2024 - A few showers possible later Tuesday into Tuesday night - Cooler with showers late week - A few showers possible later Tuesday into Tuesday night A southwesterly low level jet moves into the area Tuesday into Tuesday night. - Cooler with showers late week A couple of cold front will move through the region this week. The first cold front is progd to move across the cwa Wednesday morning.
(Today and tonight) In the wake of the upper trough will be weak west-northwesterly winds in the nearly zonal flow north of a broadly building ridge over Mexico. Areas along the caprock will drop into the 40s and lower 50s, while off the Caprock lows will remain slightly warmer in the mid to upper 50s.
429 AM EDT Tue Oct 22 2024 Southerly flow on the back side of high pressure will offer dry weather and unseasonably warm conditions.
1225 AM CDT Tue Oct 22 2024 (The rest of tonight) Isolated to scattered showers/storms will continue to be possible through tonight across northeast Oklahoma into northwest Arkansas as isentropic lift increases across the region and the tail end of an upper level low moving across the Central Plains impacts the area.
Several locations will likely reach into the low 90s this afternoon across eastern Oklahoma.
A building upper ridge, clear skies, and south/southwest winds will allow for another day of abnormally warm temperatures. Highs will be a few degrees warmer this afternoon, putting them about 10 degrees above normal. A cold front currently stalled over the Panhandle and West Texas will move a little further east towards our area today, unfortunately it's forecast to stay just off to our west before stalling again.
101 AM EDT Tue Oct 22 2024 High pressure will maintain dry and warm weather through Wednesday morning.
1154 PM CDT Mon Oct 21 2024 (This evening through Tuesday night) Dry high pressure will remain planted across the area, suppressing rain chances and keeping relative humidity seasonably pleasant. Low dewpoints and clear skies will allow overnight lows to fall into the low to mid 50s north and into the mid 50s to lower 60s south, while afternoon highs will rebound into the low to mid 80s.
- Temperatures cool back toward normal behind a cold front on Wednesday.
421 AM EDT Tue Oct 22 2024 High pressure will cover the region today and tonight. A cold front will cross the eastern United States on Wednesday with little to no precipitation, but leading in colder air.
353 AM EDT Tue Oct 22 2024 High pressure will maintain dry and warm weather through Wednesday morning.
(Today through Wednesday) An upper level ridge centered overhead or just off to our west with a moist southerly lower level flow describes the short term. With a thermal ridge in place, temperatures continue their slow warming trend, possibly approaching record highs on Wednesday.
Sunshine and warm temperatures are in place again today, as our area remains under the influence of an upper ridge of high pressure just to our east. Looking into the Plains, a increasingly moisture starved closed mid level low pressure is making its way slowly east through Kansas and Nebraska. Tuesday night, the upper pattern will see a strong trof build into the Midwest, with a surface cold front reaching our CWA in the evening hours northwest to west central Illinois by early morning. Breezy conditions and CAA will provide a much cooler day Wednesday, with highs limited to the low to mid 60s.
128 AM EDT Tue Oct 22 2024 High pressure anchored over the Mid Atlantic region will continue to pump unseasonably warm weather into our region into Wednesday.
* Midweek cold front to bring a return to near normal temperatures.
1214 AM CDT Tue Oct 22 2024 (Tonight) High pressure layered across the mid Atlantic states remains in control of the overall wx pattern across the central TN Valley this Mon evening. Current temps have fallen predom into the upper 50s/mid 60s and with dew pts mainly in the lower/mid 40s coupled with light winds, overnight lows should have little trouble falling into the mid 40s/near 50F, under mostly clears skies.
141 AM EDT Tue Oct 22 2024 Dry weather is expected to prevail through the week, as high pressure remains in control.