Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1117 AM CST Wed Jan 3 2024 (Rest of Today) Mid/high ovc deck of clouds have managed to offset much in the way of fog/freezing fog this Wed morning. Current temps are still below the freezing mark and may be slow to climb above 32F for a couple of more hrs. Temps later today look to climb mainly into the lower/mid 40s, although the higher elevations may stay just under the 40F mark. Some flurries are still possible in the higher elevations as well, although the prob is again low.
Then high pressure builds into the forecast area later tonight and on Thursday. Lows tonight in the upper teens to lower 20s with highs on Thursday in the lower to mid 30s.
- Freezing drizzle is also possible this morning, which could result in icy spots on paved surfaces.
(This evening through Thursday Night) The upper-level trough that brought rain and drizzle to the area yesterday continues to move eastward to the ArkLaTex region. By tomorrow morning, another low pressure system should move quickly out of the Four Corners region and into the Texas Panhandle. As mentioned earlier, low clouds should quickly overspread the area and by sunrise, some fog could develop where cloud ceilings go the lowest. Due to the dense overcast, very little sunshine is expected, although southeasterly flow should gradually advect some warmer air with higher dewpoints into the region. High temperatures should peak in the upper 40s to around 50, but it is possible that some locations may hold in the low to mid 40s. The low pressure center should approach by Thursday afternoon and start occluding through Thursday night.
1226 PM EST Wed Jan 3 2024 Weak high pressure will prevail today with cool and dry weather expected. The next chance for rain will come tonight as a quick moving low pressure system moves by to our south.
1128 AM CST Wed Jan 3 2024 (Today through Thursday) Key Messages: - Small Craft Advisory in effect until noon today over the Gulf Waters - Patchy fog tonight across portions of Coastal Plains Rain chances during the short term period come to an end as the low pressure system moves off to the east of our CWA, leaving subsidence in it's wake at least until the next system.
-Enriquez MORNING DISCUSSION: Dense freezing fog has settled over a large portion of our area and is expected to continue through the late morning. Looking ahead, the pattern becomes more unsettled as the upper level ridge moves east and a trough moves in setting up a split flow pattern with the northern stream over NE Montana and a trough/closed low broadly over the western U.
(This afternoon through Thursday Night) A short wave trough is passing just to our south this afternoon.
This occurs as a surface cold front and parent trough aloft dig south through this evening. As of this writing, afternoon temperatures have largely crept to at or above freezing which eases my concern for impactful freezing drizzle.
A second trough moves through the area Fri/Fri night. Mountain basins will get a clear night on Fri night between storms that will bring temperatures down strongly with the high albedo and lack of cloud cover.
300 PM EST Wed Jan 3 2024 (This afternoon through Thursday) Low pressure is currently situated south of the panhandle of Florida in the northern Gulf of Mexico. This low will continue to move east across the northern GOMEX tonight and should make landfall along the west central Fl coast by early tomorrow morning. High pressure and dry conditions will build in from the west on Thursday. Even though the precipitation chances across the mountains are the lowest, this area has the best chances for seeing any frozen precipitation.
1006 AM EST Wed Jan 3 2024 A cold front will bring freezing drizzle followed by scattered snow showers today.
(This evening through Thursday Night) Mostly clear skies expected overnight allowing for temperatures to fall to slightly below freezing across much of the region with the exception of possibly Deep East Texas. There may be a short window of time near daybreak where moisture return within a layer of slightly subfreezing temperatures could allow for frost and possibly freezing fog conditions across mainly south Arkansas, northeast Texas and north Louisiana. Therefore, for this forecast, went ahead and maintained patchy fog and frost wording in all areas where temperatures could dip below freezing.
(Tonight through Thursday night) Isentropic ascent will re-develop late tonight and through the day on Thursday in response to the next upstream upper level low moving through Arizona and New Mexico. Lift will continue to increase Thursday evening as the upper low arrives with widespread rain showers likely developing across central and eastern portions of the area.
357 PM EST Wed Jan 3 2024 Modest temperature gains since this morning have readings above freezing most areas and solidly in the mid to upper 30s across metro Detroit by mid afternoon. Upstream observations also indicate the transition to snow showers is well underway across Upper Mi and northern Lower Mi as the cold front dives southward and the mid level trough deepens the moisture profile. Readings drop into the upper 20s shortly after midnight and into the lower to mid 20s by sunrise. Thursday starts a short stretch of temperatures a few degrees below normal balanced slightly by breaks of sunshine as high pressure builds into the region.
(This afternoon through Thursday) Low pressure is currently situated south of the panhandle of Florida in the northern Gulf of Mexico. This low will continue to move east across the northern GOMEX tonight and should make landfall along the west central Fl coast by early tomorrow morning. High pressure and dry conditions will build in from the west on Thursday. Even though the precipitation chances across the mountains are the lowest, this area has the best chances for seeing any frozen precipitation.
552 PM CST Wed Jan 3 2024 (This evening through Thursday Night) Mostly clear skies expected overnight allowing for temperatures to fall to slightly below freezing across much of the region with the exception of possibly Deep East Texas. There may be a short window of time near daybreak where moisture return within a layer of slightly subfreezing temperatures could allow for frost and possibly freezing fog conditions across mainly south Arkansas, northeast Texas and north Louisiana. Therefore, for this forecast, went ahead and maintained patchy fog and frost wording in all areas where temperatures could dip below freezing.
615 PM CST Wed Jan 3 2024 -Freezing fog concerns tonight through tomorrow morning. Areas of freezing fog will see widespread visibility reductions below one quarter mile, including along the I-80 corridor. -Thursday morning, as fog lingers, potential increases for freezing drizzle across southwestern Nebraska and the Panhandle, to include the I-80 corridor.
518 PM CST Wed Jan 3 2024 Tonight and Thursday: With the departing area of low pressure that brought clouds and showers earlier today, clouds thin and most areas will be partly cloudy tonight. This will allow lows to dip to below freezing across the area with frosty conditions areawide by dawn. Sun with only a few scattered high clouds on Thursday will allow for temperatures to warm a bit more than we saw today under the influence of building high pressure.
330 PM CST Wed Jan 3 2024 - Fog and freezing fog will be possible tonight along with some light freezing drizzle Thursday morning.
549 PM CST Wed Jan 3 2024 (Tonight through Thursday night) Isentropic ascent will re-develop late tonight and through the day on Thursday in response to the next upstream upper level low moving through Arizona and New Mexico. Lift will continue to increase Thursday evening as the upper low arrives with widespread rain showers likely developing across central and eastern portions of the area.
The trough that brought rain and mountain snow is moving through NorCal today and is forecast to strengthen into an upper level low as it exits into the four corners region tomorrow. We will have a break in precipitation tomorrow as the aforementioned trough vacates the area and is replaced with weak upper level ridging.
230 PM MST Wed Jan 3 2024 203 PM MST Wed Jan 3 2024 - Fog/Freezing Fog, dense in some areas, will return to western SD and parts of northeastern Wyoming tonight.
538 PM CST Wed Jan 3 2024 (This evening through Thursday) Mid-level ridging will keep skies clear this evening which will help overnight lows get down into the mid 20s to lower 30s.
These clouds are associated with a cold front currently running along the IN border and northeast through OH. The upper level trough supporting the front will progress ESE across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley tonight, sending the cold front through KY.
526 PM CST Wed Jan 3 2024 (This afternoon through Thursday Night) A short wave trough is passing just to our south this afternoon.
755 PM EST Wed Jan 3 2024 Areas of drizzle, freezing drizzle and snow showers will persist tonight. Road temps remained warm enough through the day to preclude any freezing on road surfaces. However, have recently had a few reports of isolated slick spots on bridges and overpasses. Have thus opted for a SPS to cover this low end risk through the remainder of the evening. This occurs as a surface cold front and parent trough aloft dig south through this evening. As of this writing, afternoon temperatures have largely crept to at or above freezing which eases my concern for impactful freezing drizzle.
509 PM CST Wed Jan 3 2024 - Flurries or patchy freezing drizzle ending this evening - Light snow possible this weekend with less than an inch for most (70 to 95%). A few reports of freezing drizzle have been noted by surrounding offices, but reports have been fairly patchy so far. Have leaned towards the blend for temperatures for now, but any clearing could send temps a bit cooler and vice versa.
939 PM EST Wed Jan 3 2024 A weak cold front will move through the area tonight, bringing a cooler airmass to the region on Thursday.
High pressure, which has dominated our weather pattern for at least the past week, is departing to the east and may be going on an extended vacation.
716 PM EST Wed Jan 3 2024 A weak cold front will move through the area tonight, bringing a cooler airmass to the region on Thursday.
Early evening radar imagery is showing a broken band of showers pushing southeast into the forecast area ahead of the incoming cold front. These showers are forecast to continue to weaken as they move southeast overnight, with all areas expected to see rain, but the highest rain totals expected right along the coast and mainly from around the Tampa Bay north. Winds are increasing ahead of the incoming cold front, with Small Craft Exercise Caution headlines in place over parts of the Gulf waters this evening, then winds turning to northerly and continuing to build behind behind the front by Thursday morning.
326 PM CST Wed Jan 3 2024 Tonight and Thursday: With the departing area of low pressure that brought clouds and showers earlier today, clouds thin and most areas will be partly cloudy tonight. This will allow lows to dip to below freezing across the area with frosty conditions areawide by dawn. Sun with only a few scattered high clouds on Thursday will allow for temperatures to warm a bit more than we saw today under the influence of building high pressure.
535 PM CST Wed Jan 3 2024 (This evening through Thursday Night) The upper-level trough that brought rain and drizzle to the area yesterday continues to move eastward to the ArkLaTex region. By tomorrow morning, another low pressure system should move quickly out of the Four Corners region and into the Texas Panhandle. As mentioned earlier, low clouds should quickly overspread the area and by sunrise, some fog could develop where cloud ceilings go the lowest. Due to the dense overcast, very little sunshine is expected, although southeasterly flow should gradually advect some warmer air with higher dewpoints into the region. High temperatures should peak in the upper 40s to around 50, but it is possible that some locations may hold in the low to mid 40s. The low pressure center should approach by Thursday afternoon and start occluding through Thursday night.
203 PM MST Wed Jan 3 2024 - Fog/Freezing Fog, dense in some areas, will return to western SD and parts of northeastern Wyoming tonight.
1" in the higher elevations of the Central Coast) is expected before the showers fully move out later this evening. Expect a noticeable drop in high temperatures from yesterday, with the lower elevations reaching the mid to upper 50s, and higher elevations in the upper 40s to low 50s. Clearer skies tonight will leader to colder lows on Thursday morning, down to the low to mid 40s along the coast and Bayshore, to the mid to upper 30s in the interior valleys. Places in the most interior portions of Monterey and San Benito counties could see lows in the lower 30s. Clear skies continue into the day Thursday with highs warming into the upper 50s to lower 60s in the lower elevations, to the upper 40s to lower 50s in the higher elevations.
543 PM CST Wed Jan 3 2024 - Fog and freezing fog will be possible tonight along with some light freezing drizzle Thursday morning.
Tonight trough Thursday night. Cut off upper low and parent trof continue to progress east and out of the forecast area tonight with northwesterly flow in their wake. This will allow snow showers to dissipate overnight with isolated showers lingering mainly over the high terrain of eastern Nevada thru at least Thursday morning. Additional snowfall totals tonight look to be around an inch or less for the valleys with the high terrain tallying an additional 3 to 8 inches, depending on elevation.
208 PM MST Wed Jan 3 2024 AFTERNOON DISCUSSION: After looking at the high-res model interpretations of the freezing fog from this morning, felt best to blend in ConsShort and HREF guidance for tonight's visibility grids, giving much of locations along the Milk/Missouri River Valleys areas of patchy freezing fog through Thursday mid-morning.
1251 AM EST Thu Jan 4 2024 A weak cold front will move through the area tonight, bringing a cooler airmass to the region on Thursday.
A mid-level circulation associated with an upper trough was the focus for snow (mixed with rain in lower valleys) in SW Idaho this evening. The precip will gradually taper off from west to east overnight as the circulation and upper trough move eastward. As temperatures fall to below freezing overnight, untreated roads may become slick.
Modest temperature gains since this morning have readings above freezing most areas and solidly in the mid to upper 30s across metro Detroit by mid afternoon. Upstream observations also indicate the transition to snow showers is well underway across Upper Mi and northern Lower Mi as the cold front dives southward and the mid level trough deepens the moisture profile. Readings drop into the upper 20s shortly after midnight and into the lower to mid 20s by sunrise. Thursday starts a short stretch of temperatures a few degrees below normal balanced slightly by breaks of sunshine as high pressure builds into the region.
If the moisture levels can stay higher near water bodies as temperatures and dew points drop, we will need to monitor for some potential freezing fog.
343 AM EST Thu Jan 4 2024 Dry and cool high pressure will return today through Fri. A modest low pressure system will bring showers Sat, followed by dry high pressure Sun into Mon. The axis of showers is about halfway through the CWA as of 2am EST and activity is expected to be all offshore by about 6am EST as low pressure moves further out to sea. Otherwise, dry weather expected with highs about 5 deg below normal in the lower-mid 50s.
Where temperatures have fallen below freezing, this will likely materialize as freezing fog and areas of frost. CN (This evening through Thursday Night) Mostly clear skies expected overnight allowing for temperatures to fall to slightly below freezing across much of the region with the exception of possibly Deep East Texas. There may be a short window of time near daybreak where moisture return within a layer of slightly subfreezing temperatures could allow for frost and possibly freezing fog conditions across mainly south Arkansas, northeast Texas and north Louisiana. Therefore, for this forecast, went ahead and maintained patchy fog and frost wording in all areas where temperatures could dip below freezing.
Greatest snowfall is expected in the ridges, and the I-80 corridor to a lesser extent. - Minor snow accumulation is expected in the lowlands; up to 1-2 inches is expected in the higher elevations. - Drier conditions return this afternoon, temperatures will trend slightly cooler than the climatological average. Light snow will continue through the early morning hours with the trough axis crossing near 12z. The exception to this will be lingering, light snow in the ridges with upsloping through early afternoon. Outside of the ridges, a dusting or less is expected, and probabilities for an inch remain low. Strong cold advection behind the surface cold front will maintain cloud coverage and compress the diurnal temperature range.
306 AM EST Thu Jan 4 2024 High pressure will build southeast into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley today into tonight.
Given this and a few current obs with slightly reduced visibility, will add patchy freezing fog to the forecast. (Tomorrow through Wednesday) Upper low currently approaching the four corners region will continue its eastward motion and enter the plains by Thursday evening, however not before another day with many locations seeing high temps in the 50-55 degree range. Precipitation chances associated with the upper low will increase from west to east across the forecast area after midnight.
Visibilites of 1/4 mile or less will be possible, especially across the higher elevations across the forecast area. An upper level low currently centered across the Northern Arizona will move across New Mexico this afternoon, then across the Texas Panhandle overnight. As the low approaches, showers and isolated thunderstorms are forecast to develop from the Permian Basin north to the Panhandle.
Lows are expected to drop into the low to mid 20s.
1041 PM CST Wed Jan 3 2024 (This evening through Thursday) Mid-level ridging will keep skies clear this evening which will help overnight lows get down into the mid 20s to lower 30s.
1112 PM CST Wed Jan 3 2024 (Tonight through Thursday night) Isentropic ascent will re-develop late tonight and through the day on Thursday in response to the next upstream upper level low moving through Arizona and New Mexico. Lift will continue to increase Thursday evening as the upper low arrives with widespread rain showers likely developing across central and eastern portions of the area.
1136 PM CST Wed Jan 3 2024 - Fog and freezing fog will be possible tonight along with some light freezing drizzle Thursday morning.
220 AM EST Thu Jan 4 2024 Areas of drizzle, freezing drizzle and snow showers will diminish early this morning.
Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Most prominent feature of interest early this morning is expansive area of Canada originated high pressure building steadily southeast into the western Great Lakes. Cold air advection within still marginally gusty northwest winds on the front-side of this high resulting in shallow lake processes across the big waters. Said high pressure will continue to dig southeast, cutting across the Great Lakes/northern Ohio Valley today.
227 AM CST Thu Jan 4 2024 - Fog and freezing fog will be possible this morning, leading to possible slick conditions especially on elevated surfaces such as bridges and overpasses.
A cold front gradually approaches central Florida tonight as scattered rain showers develop out ahead of the front. Early morning temperatures are forecast to be in the 50s from Orlando northward, staying closer to the low 60s south of there. Cooler, drier air will filter south behind the front during the day Thursday. A cold front is forecast to move southward across the local Atlantic overnight into Thursday morning, accompanied by scattered showers, especially from Sebastian Inlet northward. Drier conditions return from north to south through the early morning as high pressure builds in behind the front. A cold front pushes south, gradually veering winds from SW to NNW, 12z-16z Thu.
1030 PM CST Wed Jan 3 2024 -Freezing fog concerns tonight through tomorrow morning. Areas of freezing fog will see widespread visibility reductions below one quarter mile, including along the I-80 corridor. -Thursday morning, as fog lingers, potential increases for freezing drizzle across southwestern Nebraska and the Panhandle, to include the I-80 corridor.
1112 PM CST Wed Jan 3 2024 (This evening through Thursday Night) The upper-level trough that brought rain and drizzle to the area yesterday continues to move eastward to the ArkLaTex region. By tomorrow morning, another low pressure system should move quickly out of the Four Corners region and into the Texas Panhandle. As mentioned earlier, low clouds should quickly overspread the area and by sunrise, some fog could develop where cloud ceilings go the lowest. Due to the dense overcast, very little sunshine is expected, although southeasterly flow should gradually advect some warmer air with higher dewpoints into the region. High temperatures should peak in the upper 40s to around 50, but it is possible that some locations may hold in the low to mid 40s. The low pressure center should approach by Thursday afternoon and start occluding through Thursday night.
This shift in winds over the past 24 hours is bringing in warmer and more humid air and temperatures are in the lower 70s with dew points jumping into the lower to mid 60s. Short Term Update - Much of previously mentioned gulf low will squirt east northeastward into the Atlantic while trailing a trough into the far southeaster gulf. A trailing trough will advance southeastward into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico.
Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Most prominent feature of interest early this morning is expansive area of Canada originated high pressure building steadily southeast into the western Great Lakes. Cold air advection within still marginally gusty northwest winds on the front-side of this high resulting in shallow lake processes across the big waters. Said high pressure will continue to dig southeast, cutting across the Great Lakes/northern Ohio Valley today. PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: High pressure continues to build across the Great Lakes region through Friday giving way to clearer conditions through Friday night.
(Today through Friday) The mid-level ridge continues to be the driving force for the weather of Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley. However, the winds will soon turn again, as a cold front is expected to move through the region sometime tonight, in which the winds will shift towards the northwest and remain that way for the rest of the short term forecast period. This cold front could bring some isolated to scattered showers and perhaps even a few thunderstorms right along the front. As for the temperatures, starting with the highs, high temperatures for today are expected to be in the range of upper 60s to low 70s. Then, the high temperatures for Friday will be in the 70s. As for the low temperatures, tonight, the lows are expected to be in the range of mid 50s to low 60s.
North of the Red River, temperatures in areas are expected to drop below freezing and a Freezing Fog Advisory has been issued, while south of the Red River, a Dense Fog Advisory has been issued. An upper level trough will begin to enter into the region Thursday afternoon, with the expansive cloud cover over New Mexico/Colorado shifting eastward into the region this morning and into the afternoon.
525 AM CST Thu Jan 4 2024 - Fog and freezing fog will be possible this morning, leading to possible slick conditions especially on elevated surfaces such as bridges and overpasses.
Breezy northerly winds are expected across northern Nye, White Pine, Eureka, and Elko counties, mostly along ridgetops, with gusts of 30-40 mph. Strongest gusts will remain mostly along ridgetops, with gusts of 35-45 mph (across NE Elko County).