Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Temps at 1pm have already reached the lower 50s at Judith Gap and Roundup. Otherwise, strong upper level ridge building from the west will bring dry and warmer weather the next couple of days.
At the surface, high pressure is sliding into the Dakotas from the north, resulting in light northeasterly winds across western SD. Skies will begin to clear tonight as the upper trough exits our region and upper ridging builds over the west coast. High amplitude upper ridging will promote warm and dry weather through the week. Late this week, another upper low will move ashore, pushing the ridge east. This low has the potential to bring another round of plentiful moisture to the region this weekend. The highest amounts would be in the Black Hills, which currently have a 50-70% chance of >3 inches of snow.
Morning upper air/sfc analysis indicate building subtropical ridge over the over the Caribbean Sea while digging longwave trough over the Baja California/Desert Southwest region. With strong WAA in the low levels (i. into the mid-upper teens at H85), highs will warm some 5-10 deg F above normal in the low-mid 80s. With subtropical high/mean ridge building to the east, increased pressure gradient between deepening sfc cyclone to the west will keep some gusty sfc gradient winds, sustained up to 20mph & gusts around 25mph to slightly higher in the Delta. Patchy fog may also accompany the low clouds across south MS early this morning. With increased mixing, including periodically gusty southerly wind, the lower clouds should diminish by this afternoon, enough for temps to rise to well above normal in spite of continuing higher clouds.
There are slightly breezy winds and dry conditions today as high pressure builds in from the west.
1203 PM MDT Mon Apr 1 2024 Allowed the northwestern part of the advisory to expire, as snow is dissipating and the high sun angle will allow for melting. Current surface map places low across Kansas with high pressure across Manitoba/Ontario. Elongated upper trough is located across the Rockies into the southwestern CONUS with a few embedded circulations across Wyoming/Utah. Upper ridge builds across the area mid-week with temperatures climbing back into the 60s/lower 70s.
(This evening through Tuesday night) Upper ridging over the southeast quarter of the country this afternoon, with a trough extending from the Dakotas to the Four Corners area. High pressure centered between Bermuda and the Bahamas extended westward into the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Low pressure was centered near Kansas City with a front southwestward into west Texas. Southern end of the upper trough will progress eastward overnight and Tuesday, to be near a Chicago-El Paso line at midday Tuesday.
(This evening through Tuesday) The positive tilted upper level trough is currently situated over the Rocky Mountain region. A low pressure system over southern California and a weaker low over Utah embedded in the trough will open by this evening. An 850mb low will situate north of the region bringing a cold front south through the FA early Tuesday morning.
The upper level pattern consists of a deep trough propagating across the CONUS, with another strong upper level low approaching the region from the north. Our region is currently under the influence of ridging being located between these features. After the upper level wave from the north will merge with the southern trough leading to a strong omega blocking pattern with our region under the influence of the upper ridging. Toward this weekend there is higher than normal uncertainty revolving around how and when this amplified blocking pattern will evolve. As the upper low propagates from north to south across Minnesota on Tuesday, a cold front will push through the region. A cold front will move through the region on Tuesday, bringing stronger northerly winds and at least MVFR cigs (and isolated to scattered snow showers).
A potent low pressure system will pass through southern Lake Michigan, and this has been trending a bit more northwesterly. Further northwest, cold air advection from the north and an upper level trough passing overhead may trigger some low-level convective showers, mainly during the afternoon.
(Rest of today through Tuesday) High pressure in the western Atlantic continues to keep South FL dry for the next couple days. High temperatures this afternoon will be in the lower 80s across the east coast metro, with middle 80s over the interior and SW FL. Overnight lows tonight will range from the lower 60s around the lake to around 70 close to the coasts. As the high shifts further to the southeast on Tuesday, the flow will become more S/SW which will really ramp up temps and humidity and make it feel unseasonably warm and muggy.
1246 PM CDT Mon Apr 1 2024 (Today through Tuesday Night) An upper level trough is expected to sweep eastward across the Four Corners towards Texas today. A cold front associated with the aforementioned upper level system will approach SE Texas Monday night. This could bring patchy fog across portions of SE Texas Monday night/early Tuesday morning ahead of the cold front.
1241 PM CDT Mon Apr 1 2024 - Severe weather threat today with warm, muggy airmass expanding north towards the highway 36 corridor in central Missouri.
211 PM CDT Mon Apr 1 2024 - Dry and warmer with temperatures trending above normal through midweek.
Aloft, the synoptic pattern features several lows embedded in a deep trough stretching from the Desert Southwest northeast over the Rockies and northern Plains. This disturbance will send a cold front across South Texas tonight with FROPA generally expected between 06-12Z Tuesday. A positively tilted upper level trough, and several mid- level disturbances and vertical sheer will make for a conditionally unstable environment over South Texas. Skies quickly clear behind the front along with cooler and drier air.
218 PM MDT Mon Apr 1 2024 - Snow showers in the mountains and foothills through early tonight, graupel mixing with snow at times for the lower elevations.
Surface analysis places an area of high pressure now centered several hundred miles north of Hispaniola. Meanwhile, a well- defined mid-level ridge remains firmly planted in the western Caribbean, resulting in anticylonic, diffluent flow aloft. GOES-16 visible satellite imagery is detecting a well- defined line of cumulus clouds progressing northward over the Lower Keys at this early afternoon hour, which even resulted in a trace of rainfall at the office here in Key West along with at least one waterspout south of the island.
229 PM MDT Mon Apr 1 2024 - High pressure will bring quiet weather and a warming trend, with highs 10 to 15 degrees above normal by mid-week.
700 PM CDT Mon Apr 1 2024 (This evening through Tuesday) The positive tilted upper level trough is currently situated over the Rocky Mountain region. A low pressure system over southern California and a weaker low over Utah embedded in the trough will open by this evening. An 850mb low will situate north of the region bringing a cold front south through the FA early Tuesday morning.
704 PM CDT Mon Apr 1 2024 As the subtropical ridge over the Caribbean Sea builds east, expect the longwave trough over the Baja California/Desert Southwest region to eject to the east-northeast. The southern fringes of the trough axis will hang back to the southwest while two stronger pieces of perturbed flow/vorticity will enhance cyclogenesis over the Plains to Mid West through Tuesday afternoon. A strong cold front remains progged to move into the region by late aftn hours, with some potential prefrontal development by early-mid aftn in the Delta, late aftn- early evening across the I-55 corridor & early evening across the I-59 to Hwy 45 corridor. Highs will warm some 5-10 degrees F above normal in the low 80s northwest of the Natchez Trace to mid 80s along & to the southeast.
The upper level low pressure system that has been affecting Arizona recently is on its way out. On Tuesday, outside of a few lingering showers near the White Mountains, much warmer and drier conditions will predominate. High pressure will build in from the west and raise temperatures substantially (10 to 15 degrees Monday to Tuesday).
Upper ridging continues from the Yucatan Peninsula that extends through the NE Gulf and into the Deep South while southerly low level flow over the FL Peninsula warms and moistens the atmosphere into Tuesday. Next feature to monitor will be the upper low currently over the Desert SW that will move eastward into mid week developing and pushing a strong cold front through the region. High pressure continues through Tuesday, with temperatures increasing into the mid to upper 80s by Tuesday.
High pressure is starting to leave the area as a cold front slowly approaches the state. And even then, models suggest trailing high pressure will be over most of the forecast area by the late afternoon. Through the remainder of the workweek, a ridge that is presently entering the western CONUS will gradually slide eastward as an omega block develops. By the end of the workweek, the ridge will be centered over the Plains States with flanking upper lows over the northeastern and western US. This will lead to a significant warming trend through the week with highs in the low to mid 60s for most locations by the end of the workweek.
At the surface, high pressure is sliding into the Dakotas from the north, resulting in light northeasterly winds across western SD. Skies will begin to clear tonight as the upper trough exits our region and upper ridging builds over the west coast. High amplitude upper ridging will promote warm and dry weather through the week. Late this week, another upper low will move ashore, pushing the ridge east. This low has the potential to bring another round of plentiful moisture to the region this weekend. The highest amounts would be in the Black Hills, which currently have a 50-70% chance of >3 inches of snow. Conditions will continue to improve from west to east this evening as a low pressure system exits the region.
Two converging upper waves close into an upper low directly over the Great Lakes Region over the next couple days.
(Now through Tuesday Night) The dry weather conditions will persist through mid Tuesday afternoon while a positively tilted upper trough advances over the central CONUS. West-southwest upper flow continues as a large upper low moves east over the Upper Midwest. Lows Tuesday night should range from the lower 50s well inland to the lower 60s near the coast.
(The rest of tonight) A cold front is currently near the I-44 corridor this evening with strong to severe storms generally occurring behind the boundary across northeast Oklahoma. (Tonight through Monday) Tuesday will be cloudy and drizzly/showery in spots as much cooler air spills in behind the cold front.
713 PM EDT Mon Apr 1 2024 High pressure will persist through Tuesday.
735 PM EDT Mon Apr 1 2024 (Rest of today through Tuesday) High pressure in the western Atlantic continues to keep South FL dry for the next couple days. High temperatures this afternoon will be in the lower 80s across the east coast metro, with middle 80s over the interior and SW FL. Overnight lows tonight will range from the lower 60s around the lake to around 70 close to the coasts. As the high shifts further to the southeast on Tuesday, the flow will become more S/SW which will really ramp up temps and humidity and make it feel unseasonably warm and muggy.
This one will bring a cold frontal passage to the FA late tonight into Tuesday morning. The upper level pattern consists of a deep trough propagating across the CONUS, with another strong upper level low approaching the region from the north. Our region is currently under the influence of ridging being located between these features. After the upper level wave from the north will merge with the southern trough leading to a strong omega blocking pattern with our region under the influence of the upper ridging. Toward this weekend there is higher than normal uncertainty revolving around how and when this amplified blocking pattern will evolve. As the upper low propagates from north to south across Minnesota on Tuesday, a cold front will push through the region.
232 PM PDT Mon Apr 1 2024 A couple of quiet days are in store to start the workweek as high pressure brings warmer and drier conditions.
637 PM CDT Mon Apr 1 2024 - Dry and warmer with temperatures trending above normal through midweek.
High pressure extending into the local area will keep dry conditions through the overnight hours. Near normal temperatures are forecast overnight, with morning lows in the lower 60s.
350 PM MDT Mon Apr 1 2024 - High pressure will bring quiet weather and a warming trend, with highs 10 to 15 degrees above normal by mid-week.
An upper level ridge will continue to bring warm and dry conditions to western Washington into Tuesday.
640 PM CDT Mon Apr 1 2024 (This evening through Tuesday night) Upper ridging over the southeast quarter of the country this afternoon, with a trough extending from the Dakotas to the Four Corners area. High pressure centered between Bermuda and the Bahamas extended westward into the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Low pressure was centered near Kansas City with a front southwestward into west Texas. Southern end of the upper trough will progress eastward overnight and Tuesday, to be near a Chicago-El Paso line at midday Tuesday.
The cold front has made its way into the northern part of the state per surface winds shifting and rain showers along the front. High pressure is starting to leave the area as a cold front slowly approaches the state. And even then, models suggest trailing high pressure will be over most of the forecast area by the late afternoon. Through the remainder of the workweek, a ridge that is presently entering the western CONUS will gradually slide eastward as an omega block develops. By the end of the workweek, the ridge will be centered over the Plains States with flanking upper lows over the northeastern and western US. This will lead to a significant warming trend through the week with highs in the low to mid 60s for most locations by the end of the workweek.
944 PM EDT Mon Apr 1 2024 High pressure will persist through Tuesday.
An upper ridge will build into the region through Tuesday for warm and dry conditions.
Robust deep layered ridging is in full control of our area. A pressure ridge extending over South and Central Florida will maintain east to southeasterly breezes through the overnight period.
112 AM EDT Tue Apr 2 2024 (Rest of today through Tuesday) High pressure in the western Atlantic continues to keep South FL dry for the next couple days. High temperatures this afternoon will be in the lower 80s across the east coast metro, with middle 80s over the interior and SW FL. Overnight lows tonight will range from the lower 60s around the lake to around 70 close to the coasts. As the high shifts further to the southeast on Tuesday, the flow will become more S/SW which will really ramp up temps and humidity and make it feel unseasonably warm and muggy.
1231 AM CDT Tue Apr 2 2024 (The rest of tonight) A cold front is currently near the I-44 corridor this evening with strong to severe storms generally occurring behind the boundary across northeast Oklahoma. (Tonight through Monday) Tuesday will be cloudy and drizzly/showery in spots as much cooler air spills in behind the cold front.
222 AM MDT Tue Apr 2 2024 - High pressure will bring drier and warmer weather area-wide through midweek.
1125 PM CDT Mon Apr 1 2024 (This evening through Tuesday night) Upper ridging over the southeast quarter of the country this afternoon, with a trough extending from the Dakotas to the Four Corners area. High pressure centered between Bermuda and the Bahamas extended westward into the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Low pressure was centered near Kansas City with a front southwestward into west Texas. Southern end of the upper trough will progress eastward overnight and Tuesday, to be near a Chicago-El Paso line at midday Tuesday.
Surface analysis depicts high pressure centered over the western Atlantic, with a ridge extending westward into the Florida peninsula. Aloft, deep ridging continues to dominate our region, while a deep trough extends from the Northern plains to the Desert Southwest. Today will see some early clouds give way to mostly sunny skies, with high temperatures a couple of degrees warmer than those observed on Monday, reaching the mid 80s for most locations. Guidance remains in good agreement with the evolution of the major trough aloft and associated surface cold front during the next few days.
124 AM EDT Tue Apr 2 2024 High pressure will persist through Tuesday.
Temps are forecast to be above freezing with mainly rain showers in Red River valley and rain or snow showers in northwest Minnesota.
This will occur as an elongated mid-level trough shifts slowly south and east today. Lower clouds are developing across western and northern Oklahoma as a better surge of cooler air pushes southward.
223 AM MDT Tue Apr 2 2024 Satellite imagery shows dry NW flow over our region thanks to anticyclonic flow around a powerful ridge of high pressure over the west coast. The ridge will shift slowly east the next couple of days leading to a significant warm up for our region.
- Dry and cooler weather will return for the middle of this week. Currently a warm front is draped across the northern CWA and continuing to shift to the north to near the Iowa border. As we progress through the afternoon, current thinking is that heating along with enhanced lift for an increasing mid level jet will aid in storm development in the vicinity of the warm front. These locations have the highest risk of tornadoes this afternoon with the best low level shear compared to farther north and closer to the warm front. As far as the rest of the forecast, cooler conditions move in for the mid week with highs in the 50s and lows in the 30s. Some locations may see the return of near freezing temperatures.
1023 PM CDT Mon Apr 1 2024 (This evening through Tuesday night) Upper ridging over the southeast quarter of the country this afternoon, with a trough extending from the Dakotas to the Four Corners area. High pressure centered between Bermuda and the Bahamas extended westward into the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Low pressure was centered near Kansas City with a front southwestward into west Texas. Southern end of the upper trough will progress eastward overnight and Tuesday, to be near a Chicago-El Paso line at midday Tuesday.
951 PM MDT Mon Apr 1 2024 - High pressure will bring quiet weather and a warming trend, with highs 10 to 15 degrees above normal by mid-week.
1240 AM CDT Tue Apr 2 2024 - Dry and warmer with temperatures trending above normal through midweek.
545 AM EDT Tue Apr 2 2024 High pressure will remain across the region today through tonight.
With the upper low that brought yesterday's strong winds on the way to the east, a cold front will be pushed through this morning around and just after sunrise. A colder air mass is ushered in behind the front and daytime highs end up well below normal with most reaching into the low to mid 60s. Overnight lows fall into the 40s for most with the higher elevations and portions of southeast New Mexico falling into the 30s. Our coldest spots, the Marfa Plateau and northern Lea County, may drop to freezing, but temperatures will rebound quickly after sunrise. Upper level ridging begins to move in on Wednesday allowing highs to reach closer to normal with low to mid 70s expected areawide.
An upper level ridge will continue to bring warm and dry conditions to western Washington into Tuesday. The next system will then move into the region Tuesday night into Wednesday, bringing the next round of cooler and wetter conditions to the area.
Temperatures in the Valley are currently in the low to mid 50s, and are expected to fall to the mid to high 40s by the wee small hours of the morning. Wednesday's highs will be a few degrees cooler, as a low pressure system from off the Gulf of Alaska moves down along the Northern California coast.
817 AM EDT Tue Apr 2 2024 High pressure will remain across the region today through tonight.
High temperatures will most likely peak in the lower 80's for a few of the hotter valley spots today (Ukiah, Willow Creek and Big Bar). Closed 500mb circulation will meander southeastward on Thu, however these closed lows tend to be complex and difficult to forecast.
A cold front continues to move across the central portion of the state switching the wind out of the northwest. An upper level trough over Western CONUS will begin to push through the Southern Plains tomorrow. An upper level ridge will follow the wake of the upper level trough moving into the Northern Plains by the middle of the week resulting in warming trend. The upper level ridge will remain parked over the Plains this week due to an omega blocking pattern setting up over CONUS.
1047 AM EDT Tue Apr 2 2024 High pressure continues across the area today as conditions warm into the mid to upper 80s. A cold front will then push into the area, with some strong to severe storms possible ahead of the front, generally starting a little after sunrise across the Nature Coast, then shifting south across the area through the day.
- Mild and dry conditions majority of upcoming week as ridging builds in aloft. Morning satellite analysis depicts positive tilt trough tracking across the Central Plains. With strong flow aloft trailing behind troughing to the east, will be watching for afternoon gusty winds.
The trough over Arizona tonight moves eastward today, drier air moves into the region as high pressure builds in from the west.
(Today and tonight) A strong cold front continues to push through West Central Texas this morning, shifting winds to the north and filtering drier and cooler air to the area. High temperatures will struggle to make it out of the lower to mid 60s in the Big Country, and in the mid 60s to lower 70s across the remaining portions of West Central Texas today.
850 AM MDT Tue Apr 2 2024 Satellite imagery shows dry NW flow as strong upper ridge builds in from the west. JKL Satellite imagery shows dry NW flow over our region thanks to anticyclonic flow around a powerful ridge of high pressure over the west coast. The ridge will shift slowly east the next couple of days leading to a significant warm up for our region. the ridge axis continues to shift east in advance of a deepening trof off the Pacific coast, a stronger surge of warm air from the SW should push temps to the low-mid 70s over all but our far east on Wednesday.
Cooler air will still be present across the panhandles today which will keep the highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s. This would be most likely in the north as this saw the highest amount of rainfall. Winds are likely to be weakly gusty during the afternoon hours with gusts in the low twenties mph. While these winds will be northerly the coldest air will be moving out of the region which will allow for Wednesday to be warmer.
637 AM CDT Tue Apr 2 2024 (Today through Wednesday) A cold front currently moving into the Rio Grande Plains is expected to push through the Rio Grande Valley just before Daybreak. However, the cooler air will be delayed and not arriving until tonight. A surge of high pressure will arrive tonight bring an increase in winds and cooler air into the region. Lows tonight will range from the low to mid 50s across the Brush Country and the Rio Grande Plains to the upper 50s to the lower 60s across the Rio Grande Valley and along the coast. A dry and tranquil weather is expected on Wednesday with highs in the upper 70s to the lower 80s under sunny skies.
434 AM MDT Tue Apr 2 2024 - High pressure brings warming temperatures and dry conditions through the workweek.
533 AM MDT Tue Apr 2 2024 - High pressure will bring drier and warmer weather area-wide through midweek.