Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Unsettled weather will begin this afternoon as a cold front moves into the region. An upper level low pressure system will remain over the Mid-South through late week and result in multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms.
615 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Updated at 608 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 - Rain chances return Tuesday / Tuesday night (30-50%) with next cold front. A cold front has passed through the area, leaving us much cooler.
Through the day today, a 500mb ridge from the southwest will be keeping the sky clear today as temperatures warm into the mid to upper 70s. By 0Z, the low will have dissipated and southerly winds will be returning. Around 3Z Tuesday a trough, with an associated surface cold front, starts moving into the northern parts of the area that could bring in some sprinkles or light showers. This trough is extending from a low pressure system moving southeast across the Northern Plains into Missouri.
Little appreciable impacts are expected, but areas of more persistent cloud cover may stay a few degrees warmer overnight. Aside from the potential for fire weather concerns, broad ridging aloft will allow above normal temperatures to continue for Today and Tuesday.
626 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 - A cold front will be the focus for a 15 to 25 percent chance of light rain showers this afternoon and evening.
340 AM PDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Today will be dry and warmer with high temperatures for inland areas around 4 to 8 degrees above average.
658 AM EDT Mon Sep 23 2024 After a mostly cloudy and mild day today, a wave of low pressure will bring showers and thunderstorms to the Ohio Valley late tonight into Tuesday.
637 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 (Today) With a weak area of high pressure remaining layered across parts of the eastern half of the region, quiet/seasonably mild wx conditions prevail into the early morning hrs this Mon. Afternoon highs look to climb predom into the lower 90s/near 90F, with the region remaining under the influence of an upper ridge axis over the western/central Gulf Coast areas.
Strengthening high pressure through Tuesday wIll allow for afternoon highs to increase 5 to 10 degrees today and then again Tuesday when values will reach 15 to 20 degrees above normal.
503 AM MDT Mon Sep 23 2024 KEY MESSAGES: - A few showers this morning with weak cold front passage. WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Cold front moving through this morning with a few showers moving across southern Saskatchewan beginning to dip south across the border. Cold air advection behind the front will keep temperatures a few degrees cooler than yesterday, and bring a slight increase of winds. Upper ridge builds east from the Pacific coast into Montana by Tuesday for warming temperatures.
- High temperatures are forecast to be in the mid to upper 70s through the 7 day forecast period, although would not be surprised to see a few locations reach the low 80s some of those days.
622 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Unsettled weather will begin this afternoon as a cold front moves into the region. An upper level low pressure system will remain over the Mid-South through late week and result in multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms.
Weak high pressure remains in place at the surface across the Eastern Seaboard with a developing tropical low pressure system over the northwestern Caribbean Sea. From synopsis, gentle easterly flow across the Keys coastal waters this afternoon will steadily increase tonight and Tuesday, as high pressure builds along the Eastern Seaboard, and a tropical low develops in the northwestern Caribbean Sea. Heading through the middle and later part of the week, the forecast will depend on the development and movement of this low.
527 AM MDT Mon Sep 23 2024 - A weak disturbance in northwest flow combined with modest levels of moisture lingering from this weekend's storm is expected to generated isolated storms over the higher terrain this afternoon with the southern San Juan Mountains favored. - Dry and warm conditions are expected during the remainder of the week as high pressure settles over the region.
High temps hanging around the low 90s for the next couple of days.
637 AM EDT Mon Sep 23 2024 - Rain chances return late tonight into Tuesday - Mild and quiet weather mid and late week Pattern/synopsis: 1009mb low pressure is near the St Clair River. Most precip is east thru north of this low; synoptic precip has largely exited northern MI. Forecast: High pressure will s and sw-ward into northern MI, as the low departs to the e and se. There are also signs in guidance of an inverted surface trof developing northward into nw lower MI, with associated moisture pooling. Embedded troughing along both north and southern branch flow will keep us somewhat active early in the period, before things quiet.
High pressure influence arrives after 15Z today which slowly works to dry the boundary layer, but any recovery to VFR will be brief before ceilings crater back to MVFR/IFR overnight. The next warm front ensures non-VFR conditions through Tuesday morning. A couple rumbles of thunder are possible Tuesday morning with the approach of another warm front. Southeast Michigan will reside between high pressure across the northern great lakes and a stalled frontal zone over the Ohio valley to start the work week. Higher quality low level moisture left in the wake of an exiting low pressure system ensures plentiful cloud cover through at least the first half of the day. Notably cooler relative to recent days, but still within the range of average for late September.
340 AM MDT Mon Sep 23 2024 - Areas of fog likely, especially in the San Luis Valley (SLV) - Seasonable temps today - Slightly cooler than normal temperatures are expected for Tuesday, with above normal temperatures and mostly dry conditions persisting through the remainder of the forecast period. Most susceptible areas will be in the SLV as the low level moisture is trapped in this region. CLear skies and drier conditions expected, with min temps running about 8 to 10F degrees warmer than this mornings low temps. Temperatures are likely to be a few degrees cooler than Monday, and near to just below normal for this time of year.
328 AM MDT Mon Sep 23 2024 - A weak disturbance in northwest flow combined with modest levels of moisture lingering from this weekend's storm is expected to generated isolated storms over the higher terrain this afternoon with the southern San Juan Mountains favored. - Dry and warm conditions are expected during the remainder of the week as high pressure settles over the region.
We will sit in a narrow open warm sector as depicted on latest mesoanalysis for the next couple hours ahead of an approaching cold front that will slowly progress eastward through the region this morning. Would expect the rain threat to lessen this afternoon, and we may dry out enough to lose the lower cloud cover as well. This wave looks to be stronger than today's and with southwest flow aloft, ahead of an upper low that will dig into the midwest, gulf moisture will stream in over the region.
529 AM MDT Mon Sep 23 2024 - Areas of fog likely, especially in the San Luis Valley (SLV) - Seasonable temps today - Slightly cooler than normal temperatures are expected for Tuesday, with above normal temperatures and mostly dry conditions persisting through the remainder of the forecast period. Most susceptible areas will be in the SLV as the low level moisture is trapped in this region. CLear skies and drier conditions expected, with min temps running about 8 to 10F degrees warmer than this mornings low temps. Temperatures are likely to be a few degrees cooler than Monday, and near to just below normal for this time of year.
613 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 (Today) The surface cold front has moved through the area with cool northerly flow resulting in declining temperatures, coolest in northeast OK. The upper level trough axis is still upstream, so good upper level divergence continues across the area. As the trough axis approaches, precipitation will gradually become confined to northwest and north- central AR during the afternoon, finally moving out of the area by tonight. Additional rainfall totals will vary, but in general the highest totals should be in AR. Elsewhere, temperatures will be a bit warmer, generally in the mid 70s.
932 AM EDT Mon Sep 23 2024 After a mostly cloudy and mild day today, a wave of low pressure will bring showers and thunderstorms to the Ohio Valley late tonight into Tuesday.
321 PM EDT Mon Sep 23 2024 High pressure centered to our east will keep mainly dry conditions in place through Tuesday.
Quiet weather with temperatures 5 to 10 degrees above normal will persist into early October as a ridge of high pressure holds over our region. Very little discernible change in the day-to-day weather is in store for our region through this week and into the next as we remain under a mean area of high pressure.
1152 AM MDT Mon Sep 23 2024 - Areas of fog likely, especially in the San Luis Valley (SLV) - Seasonable temps today - Slightly cooler than normal temperatures are expected for Tuesday, with above normal temperatures and mostly dry conditions persisting through the remainder of the forecast period. Most susceptible areas will be in the SLV as the low level moisture is trapped in this region. CLear skies and drier conditions expected, with min temps running about 8 to 10F degrees warmer than this mornings low temps. Temperatures are likely to be a few degrees cooler than Monday, and near to just below normal for this time of year.
1230 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 - A cold front will be the focus for a 20 to 50 percent chance light rain showers this afternoon and evening.
Overall today, ridging throughout the forecast area will be the primary meteorological driver for today, that is to say there won't be much excitement. A weak cold front will approach northwest portions of the area by later tonight, and the increased moisture convergence could support increased rain chances over far northwest portions of the area by daybreak.
1239 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 (The rest of today) Scattered showers continue to develop and stream in from the southwest across the forecast area this morning as an upper-level trough works its way eastward across the Plains. Visible satellite imagery shows thick stratus clouds blanketing the region ahead of the upper-level trough axis. Unseasonably cool temperatures will persist today, with highs reaching the low-mid 70s for most locations. Cloud cover and precipitation should clear west-to-east this afternoon as the upper trough axis approaches.
(The rest of today) Scattered showers continue to develop and stream in from the southwest across the forecast area this morning as an upper-level trough works its way eastward across the Plains. Visible satellite imagery shows thick stratus clouds blanketing the region ahead of the upper-level trough axis. Unseasonably cool temperatures will persist today, with highs reaching the low-mid 70s for most locations. Cloud cover and precipitation should clear west-to-east this afternoon as the upper trough axis approaches.
A few showers or storms will linger tonight as deep southwest flow develops ahead of an approaching trough. The first will be a developing upper level low pressure system over Arkansas and the other will be a likely tropical system coming up from the eastern Gulf of Mexico. The storm will then gradually weaken as it gets lifted northward between the upper level low over Arkansas and an upper ridge over the Atlantic.
Expect north to easterly winds, 10-20 mph, this afternoon as a broad area of low pressure continues to make its way eastward, allowing high pressure to build and move in from the west. If these above normal temperatures are not your jam, just wait for the evening/overnight hours where temperatures in the 30s and 40s are expected for many areas of the High Country. These warm, dry, and mostly calm conditions are thanks to a strong high pressure system. This wave looks to stay mostly north and east of Arizona, but overall will slightly weaken the pressure gradients associated with the ridge.
136 PM EDT Mon Sep 23 2024 After a mostly cloudy and mild day today, a wave of low pressure will bring showers and thunderstorms to the Ohio Valley late tonight into Tuesday.
130 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Unsettled weather will begin this afternoon as a cold front moves into the region. An upper level low pressure system will remain over the Mid-South through late week and result in multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms.
147 PM PDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Dry and warmer today, with high temperatures around 4 to 8 degrees above average for inland areas.
1138 AM MDT Mon Sep 23 2024 - A weak disturbance in northwest flow combined with modest levels of moisture lingering from this weekend's storm is expected to generated isolated storms over the higher terrain this afternoon with the southern San Juan Mountains favored. - Dry and warm conditions are expected during the remainder of the week as high pressure settles over the region.
306 PM EDT Mon Sep 23 2024 A wave of low pressure will bring showers and thunderstorms to the Ohio Valley tonight and Tuesday.
Fair weather continues thru the end of the week across the forecast area as upper ridging and high pressure build over Nevada.
1153 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 - Thunderstorms possible in the southeast along a cold front. (Today through Tuesday night) Upper level low that brought us all of the rain over the weekend will continue to shear apart as it moves northeast through the Midwest. Next upper level trough is expected to drop south- southeastward out of the Canadian Prairies and into northern Missouri/southern Iowa by late Tuesday afternoon. The flow over the Panhandles will be northerly on the back side of this trough. This vort max coupled with a cold front may provide enough lift to produce showers and thunderstorms across the southeast Texas Panhandle Tuesday afternoon and evening.
Frontal boundary snaking across parts of the area will lift north tonight as a warm front as low pressure across the lower MS Valley tracks northeast into the Great Lakes Tuesday. Upper trof across the upper Midwest will energize this boundary on Tuesday. Period begins with deep southwesterly flow across the area, with an upper low/trough axis just to our west.
1214 PM PDT Mon Sep 23 2024 * A dry and mild pattern with weak RH recoveries on mid-slopes and ridgetops across W.
Weak high pressure remains in place along the Eastern Seaboard with a developing area of low pressure in the northwestern Caribbean Sea. The National Hurricane Center has begun to issue advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine as of 11 am EDT this morning.
Discussion: We start the period with the upper ridge still over our area and an upper trough to our west over the Plains. Heights will be decreasing over our area as the ridge axis shifts east and the upper trough slowly edges east. Short wave energy ejecting out ahead of the upper trough will move across our area, bringing an increased chance for showers and storms.
However, upper ridging across the Lower Mississippi Valley and SE CONUS will slow its eastward progression. The remainder of the region should see highs climb into the lower and possibly mid 90s.
(Tonight through Tuesday night) An upper level trough in the middle of the country has pushed the subtropical ridge to the south and the 500mb flow is from the west- southwest. A surface cold front has made it into our northern area and is stretched from Temple to Rocksprings to the Big Bend. The upper trough will push a little farther south tonight adding better lift near the surface boundary. The upper trough will dig farther southeast Tuesday night and there will be lingering low chances for rain across our CWA. Temperatures will be divided by the front with cooler temperatures to the north and warmer to the south.
242 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 - Chances (20-25%) for scattered light showers return this evening as a cold front moves across the region. Should see breezy conditions quickly diminish this evening as cloud cover builds ahead of an advancing cold front. Winds during this time look to become northwesterly in the wake of FROPA, leading to a slightly cooler day. As such, have afternoon highs in the lower 70s under partly cloudy skies.
1249 PM MDT Mon Sep 23 2024 - Seasonable temps today - Slightly cooler than normal temperatures are expected for Tuesday, with above normal temperatures and mostly dry conditions persisting through the remainder of the forecast period. Most susceptible areas will be in the SLV as the low level moisture is trapped in this region. CLear skies and drier conditions expected, with min temps running about 8 to 10F degrees warmer than this mornings low temps. Temperatures are likely to be a few degrees cooler than Monday, and near to just below normal for this time of year.
(This afternoon through Tuesday) High pressure over the southeast will slowly move eastward through the day, with low and mid level winds transitioning to out of the southwest by tonight. Overnight through Tuesday, a low pressure system moves through the Ohio Valley with a frontal boundary approaching from the northwest.
137 PM MDT Mon Sep 23 2024 KEY MESSAGES: - A warm up to the 80s/low 90s Wed then stepping cooler through the weekend.
Comparing to WPC cluster analysis, all 4 of the clusters have this solution with some variety with how strong the cutoff low could be and strength of upper level ridging. Compared to its last several runs, all WPC clusters show a stronger/sharper ridge axis running northeast-southeast across the great lakes at 00z Sat while also strengthening the cutoff low. TEMPS: a couple more days of near normal temps for the area before an upper level ridging bends northeast from the plains. A weak ridge of high pressure extends overhead stemming from the Upper Great Lakes. Meanwhile, there is a low pressure system shifting east through Dakotas and another to the south across the mid-Mississippi Valley.
Main weather story of the week will be the development of potential tropical cyclone 9.
Best chances of anything reaching the ground are with the higher reflectivities west of Minot. Post Tuesday, a ridge begins to build into the area increasing temperatures and drying conditions out for the week. Conditions begin to dry out Tuesday afternoon and evening, with temperatures reaching into the lower 70s. Ridge starts to build into the region mid week and into the end of the week, with temperatures climbing into the upper 70s to lower 80s. Conditions will remain dry as the ridge refuses to move eastward. Confidence is increasing that by the end of the following weekend and into the first week of October we start to see a breakdown of the ridge leading to a cool down in temperatures.
154 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 The forecast for the remainder of the day into tomorrow remains on track: high pressure/heights continue to dominate and is projected to keep our weather benign, mostly clear, breezy, yet our temperatures are expected to trend several degrees warmer than seasonal.
/14 (Now through Tuesday) An upper ridge over much of the Gulf and adjacent northern Gulf coast states is deflected out of the forecast area through Tuesday in response to a longwave trof which evolves over the central states and begins to advance into the eastern states. Despite the movement of the upper ridge, waning subsidence effects look sufficient to suppress convective development, although can't rule out a shower or storm developing each afternoon. Highs today mostly range from 90 to 95, then highs on Tuesday will be mostly in the lower 90s.
324 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 - 20% chance of light showers or sprinkles overnight tonight as a cold front moves from the northwest to southeast. - Highs this week will generally range in the mid to upper 70s with a chance to reach the low 80s by the end of the week.
(Tonight through Tuesday night) The major player for the short term forecast will the elongated mid- level ridge over Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley. As for temperatures, the highs temperatures for tomorrow are expected to be around the mid 90s. The low temperatures for tonight and tomorrow are expected to be in the 70s.
Broad mid- level ridging across the GoMex and FL peninsula will promote subsidence aloft over the next 24 hours across the region. Weak surface ridging has pushed off of the Carolina coast into the western Atlc and will continue to weaken. High pressure will slowly move offshore the eastern seaboard early this week. A tropical cyclone is forecast to develop over the northwest Caribbean in the next 48 hours and move north into the eastern Gulf of Mexico mid week.
839 AM PDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Today will be dry and warmer, with high temperatures around 4 to 8 degrees above average for inland areas.
Cirrus clouds coming in from the northwest as a warming Pacific upper ridge builds inland.
1236 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Overall today, ridging throughout the forecast area will be the primary meteorological driver for today, that is to say there won't be much excitement. A weak cold front will approach northwest portions of the area by later tonight, and the increased moisture convergence could support increased rain chances over far northwest portions of the area by daybreak.
This moisture continues to clear the region overnight while ridge of high pressure shifts east into Idaho. Ridge axis stays progressive while gradually amplifying through Tuesday morning, transitioning to southerly flow aloft. Breezy winds today diminish overnight and stay light under the ridge axis.
137 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 - A cold front to bring shift to winds out of the west, and a 20 to 50% chance of light rain through this evening.
Most of tonight is forecast to then be rain-free; however, chances are expected to increase to our northwest once again late tonight into early Tuesday morning due to the approach of a surface cold front.
Meanwhile, strong high pressure across eastern Canada builds southward along the Appalachians. A strong front and area of low pressure over the Great Lakes and Upper Midwest will approach through the middle of the week. High pressure will build to the north mid to late week while low pressure approaches from the south. Overnight low temperatures will only fall into the low to mid 60s. A warm front lifts further north on Tuesday, with increasing shower chances into the afternoon. Cannot rule out a few isolated thunderstorms, especially west of the Blue Ridge where better forcing and instability will likely reside.
629 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 - 20% chance of light showers or sprinkles overnight tonight as a cold front moves from the northwest to southeast. - Highs this week will generally range in the mid to upper 70s with a chance to reach the low 80s by the end of the week.
An approaching and crossing warm front will bring a round of widespread rain showers Tuesday afternoon and night.
1034 PM EDT Mon Sep 23 2024 High pressure centered to our east will keep mainly dry conditions in place through Tuesday.
(Tonight through Tuesday night) Presently there is a broad upper ridge over the GoM / Gulf Coast States, a trough taking shape across the Central to Southern Plains, and a cold front curved from S MO through Ctrl TX. Over the next 24H, we will see the upper ridge shoot off to the Atlantic coast of FL as what is now PTC#9 moves north into the GoM and the front descends further south.
High pressure will result in mostly dry conditions through Tuesday along with warming temperatures.
803 PM EDT Mon Sep 23 2024 High pressure centered to our east will keep mainly dry conditions in place through Tuesday.
653 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 The forecast for the remainder of the day into tomorrow remains on track: high pressure/heights continue to dominate and is projected to keep our weather benign, mostly clear, breezy, yet our temperatures are expected to trend several degrees warmer than seasonal.