Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
WV imagery this afternoon shows the upper ridge centered over the South Plains, resulting in the somewhat warm temperatures throughout West Texas and Southeast New Mexico at the moment. Meanwhile, the upper ridge continues developing East-northeast, arriving in southern Oklahoma Friday afternoon.
1213 PM CDT Thu Aug 22 2024 (Today and tonight) Bottom line up front is even hotter temperatures today as thickness values climb a touch higher as an upper level ridge positions itself directly over the region.
145 PM EDT Thu Aug 22 2024 High pressure brings dry weather through the weekend. Temperatures will moderate, and it will become hot this weekend as high pressure also builds aloft. Continued dry across the area courtesy of high pressure. With dry air mass in place and good radiational cooling conditions expected tonight, went on the lower side of guidance for overnight lows. Sunny, and slightly warmer tomorrow, as upper ridge nudges east towards our area. High temperatures on Friday will generally top out in the mid to upper 80s across much of the lowlands. High pressure, both at the surface and aloft, remain at center stage as we trot into the weekend, with dry weather prevailing. Should begin to see a steady rise in temperatures with repositioning of the upper ridge yielding pressure height rises.
Max temperatures will trend +4-8F warmer day/day with highs in the mid 70s to low 80s (+/-3F of daily climo). Summertime conditions return for the weekend with a gradual uptick in warmth and humidity - thanks to return (southwest) flow pattern developing on the backside of high pressure migrating off the East Coast.
1226 PM CDT Thu Aug 22 2024 - High pressure and mild weather will remain through today, with temperatures on the rise Friday and beyond.
Slightly warmer tomorrow, dry weather to continue. A gentle high pressure will be circulating through the Cumberland Plateau tomorrow, this should give us gentle downvalley flow, if any wind is even noticeable. With the low PWAT values and the upper low pinching off south of us, the HREF is dry tomorrow, so maintained the 0 NBM PoPs. We increment slightly warmer once again tomorrow, continuing our incline upwards. Discussion: We start the period with a broad shallow upper trough over the eastern CONUS and an upper ridge to our west. This basic pattern is forecast to be rather stagnant for much of the period although guidance suggests the upper ridge will build slowly east later in the period, and the atmosphere is forecast to remain on the dry side overall.
356 PM EDT Thu Aug 22 2024 High pressure over Ohio will move slowly east across Pennsylvania Friday and then settle along the Middle Atlantic Coast over the weekend. KEY MESSAGES: - Another cool night on tap with readings 5 to 10 degrees below normal ------------------------------------------------------------------- Decent 500 mb height rises of roughly 60 meters are ongoing as the upper low over ME continues to move away and 5960 meter high builds over TX. Another short wave trough currently over MN and Manitoba will turn southeast across the Great Lakes and keep the very warm air well southwest of the Upper Ohio Valley.
222 PM EDT Thu Aug 22 2024 Warmer and quieter conditions return Friday and will last through most of the weekend.
248 PM EDT Thu Aug 22 2024 (This afternoon through Friday) A positively-tilted upper-level trough remains in place over the eastern CONUS, with a vort max and associated moisture noted over Georgia in water vapor satellite imagery and 500 mb analysis. At the surface, high pressure encompasses much of the eastern CONUS. Overnight, dew points will drop into the mid-50s area-wide, with low temperatures in the lower 60s to mid-60s (with 50s in the mountains). The upper-level trough will shift eastward and dampen as a sprawling upper-level ridge nudges in from the west. At/near the surface, high pressure will anchor along the Appalachians, leading to a wedge/cold air damming (CAD) across much of the forecast area.
1224 PM CDT Thu Aug 22 2024 (Today through Friday) The upper level ridge has shifted to the east and is centered over west TX this morning. At the surface a stationary front remains draped along the eastern edge of the ridge extending from the Texas Panhandle to Galveston. Models have come in a little bit warmer and while high temperatures will be down from yesterday, they will still be 100 or higher in most places. The upper ridge will weaken slightly tonight and Friday and some minor height falls may take a few degrees off the high temperatures.
(This afternoon through Friday) Troughing over the eastern US will move southeast with low and mid level easterly flow over the state. Dry conditions and warmer temperatures will be expected, with highs in the upper 80s and lower 90s, a few degrees below normal.
Comparatively milder weather will prevail in East Texas where a weak disturbance embedded in the northerly flow on the eastern periphery of the ridge may result in some high-based showers or storms.
154 PM EDT Thu Aug 22 2024 High pressure along with cooler and drier air persists into the weekend.
305 PM EDT Thu Aug 22 2024 High pressure in control, drifting eastward for the weekend with a continued gradual warming trend and dry weather. More of the persistence forecast in play under high pressure over the region, drifting towards the mid Atlantic coast Friday/Friday night. Steadily moderating temperatures, not quite as cool tonight, and warmer Friday with more readings into the lower 80s as we finally start to transition to return flow. Upper level ridge will also be building over the southern plains region, so the 500mb heights will be increasing across our CWA as well. Upper level ridge continues to build eastward across the central CONUS through the weekend. We'll remain dry through the short term with increasing temperatures as the ridge builds eastward.
(This evening through Friday night) High pressure will dominate the area for the next couple days and we'll continue to be under heat highlights as a result. The ridge of high pressure that's been parked over the Panhandles for the past several days will start to slowly shift east tonight into tomorrow. With an upper level trough moving into the Pacific northwest the breakdown of the long lived high pressure will begin on Friday night.
We normally do not see PW this low until early October, so I guess we can say that we got a slight taste of "Fall" over the past couple of days, although the actual temps did not feel like fall. Things start to change a little bit as we get into tomorrow when the trough over Georgia cuts off. The upper-level ridge over Texas is expected to expand into the Ozarks region of Arkansas and Missouri, effectively cutting off the aforementioned trough over Georgia. The trough starts to slowly move westward underneath the ridge across the northern Gulf on Friday. This help break down the ridging and suppression over the area while bringing in higher moisture and PVA into the area.
310 PM EDT Thu Aug 22 2024 High pressure tracking from the Ohio Valley to the mid Atlantic Coast will continue to provide dry weather through the weekend.
Eastern Flathead lake and the Highway 200 corridor have a 60 to 100% chance of having gusts greater than 30 mph. A large low pressure system will start to make its way into the Pacific Northwest on Friday causing the upper level flow to become southerly over the Northern Rockies. The aforementioned low pressure system will make its way over the Northern Rockies by this weekend. The latest guidance have trended downward on precipitation amounts associated with the low, but temperatures will still be quite cool for this time of year.
High pressure extends into the area from the OH valley. This high is forecast to build into the Mid-Atlantic and central Appalachians overnight. It is difficult to tell how dense the high cirrus will be, but some forecast soundings from the GFS suggest some dense overcast in the early afternoon.
Currently, the 500 mb ridge axis stretches from James Bay in Canada to the southern Baja Peninsula, with the core of the high over north and west Texas. The ridge will weaken some overnight and into Friday as a tropical wave moves into the region from the east.
1214 PM CDT Thu Aug 22 2024 (Rest of today through Friday) Temperatures are nearly 10 degrees warmer at this time today than they were this time yesterday. Some patchy cloud cover is noted on visible satellite as one final lobe of energy associated with the exiting trough swings across Alabama. (Friday Night through next Thursday) Not a whole lot to talk about in the extended as a developing ridge over Texas expands and builds east through the weekend.
254 PM EDT Thu Aug 22 2024 Lingering showers will diminish this evening as high pressure begins to build into the Northeast.
(This evening through Friday Night) Ridging should persist over the state through the end of the work week. The deterministic NBM high temperatures on Friday look fairly reasonable, depicting a slot of cooler temperatures in areas of higher cloud cover/rain chances, as some bias corrected models have caught onto. Still, this would be rather cool compared to previous forecast, so I opted to keep temperatures slightly warmer, as to ease into these changes.
An amplified upper-level pattern remains with a deep trough axis over the E CONUS and a stationary boundary over N Florida. The subtropical ridge axis has been suppressed by the trough axis, and that will not dramatically change. However, the position of the ridge axis is shifting, ushering back in an ESE flow over the next couple days. These are the highest totals on an areawide basis since Debby.
Broad high pressure will gradually build in to end the week.
However, a 20-30% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms is expected for east-central MN into northwest WI Friday morning as a weak mid- level trough pushes through. After this chance of precip, the remainder of Friday and the weekend look dry as upper-level ridging builds into the Northern Plains.
(Rest of today through Friday) Temperatures are nearly 10 degrees warmer at this time today than they were this time yesterday. Some patchy cloud cover is noted on visible satellite as one final lobe of energy associated with the exiting trough swings across Alabama. (Friday Night through next Thursday) Not a whole lot to talk about in the extended as a developing ridge over Texas expands and builds east through the weekend.
Heat indices up to 110 degrees are possible in some areas At the synoptic scale, three main features are interacting over the lower 48. The upper-level pattern consists of broader troughing, both over the pacific northwest and over the northeast CONUS. Additionally, 925MB guidance indicates a robust lower- level high pressure centrally located in the Ohio River Valley working in tandem with the broad upper-level ridge in the southern plains to keep the atmosphere marginally stable for the time being.
1108 AM EDT Thu Aug 22 2024 The slow moving upper level storm system that has been circulating clouds and cooler conditions during the past couple days will give way to high pressure that will bring fair weather with day to day warming into the upcoming weekend. Upper level trough over northern New England will lift very slowly into the Canadian Maritimes by tonight. Areas west of the Finger Lakes will enjoy fair dry weather as expansive high pressure over the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley drifts into the region.
1117 AM MDT Thu Aug 22 2024 - Slightly cooler temperatures today, but still warm.
242 PM EDT Thu Aug 22 2024 Warmer and quieter conditions return Friday and will last through most of the weekend.
This activity is being fueled by a weak upper disturbance shifting south amid an upper trough axis that is gradually pushing east. Skies will clear and southeasterly winds will become much lighter overnight, and radiational cooling will allow temperatures to fall into the lower 60s across the higher terrain in northeast AL and southern middle TN to mid to upper 60s across the remainder of the area.
1255 PM EDT Thu Aug 22 2024 High pressure in place across the region with below average temperatures will gradually shift offshore into this weekend, yielding a return to near average temperatures. Tonight looks quiet, clear, and cool once again with lows ranging from the mid to upper 40s in the cooler spots to the 50s elsewhere. The upper low system will be departing well northeast of our area by Friday as quasi-zonal flow sets up in its wake locally.
1213 PM CDT Thu Aug 22 2024 - Trending warmer with low precipitation chances (20-30%) Thursday and Thursday night into Friday morning.
247 PM EDT Thu Aug 22 2024 Expansive high pressure centered over Ohio this evening will drift east for the Mid Atlantic region where it will sit through the weekend. as high pressure over Ohio will slowly drift by to our south. as the area of high pressure will become stationary over the Mid Atlantic region. High pressure over the Mid Atlantic region will provide fine late summer weather to start the weekend.
Dry and hot conditions are anticipated today as a low pressure system resides along the Pacific Northwest coast, bringing south to southwest flow into the area. The low will begin to nudge eastward on Friday, and temperatures are expected to lower by roughly 10 degrees from today with increasing chances of precipitation Friday night.
612 PM CDT Thu Aug 22 2024 (This evening through Friday Night) Ridging should persist over the state through the end of the work week. The deterministic NBM high temperatures on Friday look fairly reasonable, depicting a slot of cooler temperatures in areas of higher cloud cover/rain chances, as some bias corrected models have caught onto. Still, this would be rather cool compared to previous forecast, so I opted to keep temperatures slightly warmer, as to ease into these changes.
1030 PM EDT Thu Aug 22 2024 Lingering showers will diminish this evening as high pressure begins to build into the Northeast.
As this low-pressure system slowly moves eastward toward the coast late tonight, clouds will begin to increase across southeast Oregon. However, moisture will increase in the afternoon, along with upper-level dynamics and instability, leading to showers and thunderstorms primarily across southeast Oregon and the higher terrain of southwest Idaho. The strongest winds are expected in the higher terrain near the Nevada border. Temperatures are forecast to drop by about 10-15 degrees tomorrow, with the low center just to the west.
742 PM EDT Thu Aug 22 2024 High pressure tracking from the Ohio Valley to the mid Atlantic Coast will continue to provide dry weather through the weekend.
715 PM EDT Thu Aug 22 2024 Warmer and quieter conditions return Friday and will last through most of the weekend.
It is difficult to tell how dense the high cirrus will be, but some forecast soundings from the GFS suggest some dense overcast in the early afternoon.
701 PM EDT Thu Aug 22 2024 High pressure over Ohio will move slowly east across Pennsylvania Friday and then settle along the Middle Atlantic Coast over the weekend. Another short wave trough currently over MN and Manitoba will turn southeast across the Great Lakes and keep the very warm air well southwest of the Upper Ohio Valley.
608 PM CDT Thu Aug 22 2024 (This evening through Friday night) High pressure will dominate the area for the next couple days and we'll continue to be under heat highlights as a result. The ridge of high pressure that's been parked over the Panhandles for the past several days will start to slowly shift east tonight into tomorrow. With an upper level trough moving into the Pacific northwest the breakdown of the long lived high pressure will begin on Friday night.
Thunderstorms will continue across northwest Arizona and nearby portions of southern Nevada before a strong trough moves over the western states and dries out the region on Friday. This trough will also help to cool temperatures to below normal readings by this weekend.
1003 PM EDT Thu Aug 22 2024 High pressure in control, drifting eastward for the weekend with a continued gradual warming trend and dry weather. More of the persistence forecast in play under high pressure over the region, drifting towards the mid Atlantic coast Friday/Friday night. Steadily moderating temperatures, not quite as cool tonight, and warmer Friday with more readings into the lower 80s as we finally start to transition to return flow. Upper level ridge will also be building over the southern plains region, so the 500mb heights will be increasing across our CWA as well. Upper level ridge continues to build eastward across the central CONUS through the weekend. We'll remain dry through the short term with increasing temperatures as the ridge builds eastward.
731 PM EDT Thu Aug 22 2024 Lingering showers will diminish this evening as high pressure begins to build into the Northeast.
634 PM CDT Thu Aug 22 2024 (This evening through Friday) A strong upper level high is centered just northwest of our area this afternoon. The strong upper level high will shift northeast over the Red River Valley on Friday.
Aside from higher clouds spilling over an upper ridge to our west, conditions will remain mostly clear.
Our areal weather pattern tonight is due to surface and upper level ridging influences continuing to be major weather player across our area. (Rest of today through Friday) Temperatures are nearly 10 degrees warmer at this time today than they were this time yesterday. Some patchy cloud cover is noted on visible satellite as one final lobe of energy associated with the exiting trough swings across Alabama. (Friday Night through next Thursday) Not a whole lot to talk about in the extended as a developing ridge over Texas expands and builds east through the weekend.
704 PM EDT Thu Aug 22 2024 High pressure in control, drifting eastward for the weekend with a continued gradual warming trend and dry weather. More of the persistence forecast in play under high pressure over the region, drifting towards the mid Atlantic coast Friday/Friday night. Steadily moderating temperatures, not quite as cool tonight, and warmer Friday with more readings into the lower 80s as we finally start to transition to return flow. Upper level ridge will also be building over the southern plains region, so the 500mb heights will be increasing across our CWA as well. Upper level ridge continues to build eastward across the central CONUS through the weekend. We'll remain dry through the short term with increasing temperatures as the ridge builds eastward.
626 PM EDT Thu Aug 22 2024 Warmer and quieter conditions return Friday and will last through most of the weekend.
958 PM EDT Thu Aug 22 2024 High pressure tracking from the Ohio Valley to the mid Atlantic Coast will continue to provide dry weather through the weekend.
324 PM MDT Thu Aug 22 2024 Today into tonight we will see rising upper level heights and southwest flow with a trough to our west. Convection will likely have a difficult time surviving over the lower elevations as instability will be limited. Tomorrow the upper trough starts to impact the region as models are showing convective activity. Even though the environment is less favorable for other parts of the region, the high terrain should be able to force some convection giving the entire region the chance for some thunderstorms tomorrow. Temperatures will rise slightly into the low to mid 90s.
For Friday, should begin seeing sfc ridging exiting our region to the east which will allow for more of a southerly component to our low level wind flow.
742 PM EDT Thu Aug 22 2024 High pressure in control, drifting eastward for the weekend with a continued gradual warming trend and dry weather. More of the persistence forecast in play under high pressure over the region, drifting towards the mid Atlantic coast Friday/Friday night. Steadily moderating temperatures, not quite as cool tonight, and warmer Friday with more readings into the lower 80s as we finally start to transition to return flow. Upper level ridge will also be building over the southern plains region, so the 500mb heights will be increasing across our CWA as well. Upper level ridge continues to build eastward across the central CONUS through the weekend. We'll remain dry through the short term with increasing temperatures as the ridge builds eastward.
823 PM EDT Thu Aug 22 2024 High pressure along with cooler and drier air persists into the weekend.
730 PM EDT Thu Aug 22 2024 - Cool tonight, warmer Friday.
Overnight temperatures in the 60s are expected, with coolest temperatures across the east where drier air will work its way through the Southern Appalachians with an expanding footprint of high pressure.
623 PM CDT Thu Aug 22 2024 (Rest of today through Friday) Temperatures are nearly 10 degrees warmer at this time today than they were this time yesterday. Some patchy cloud cover is noted on visible satellite as one final lobe of energy associated with the exiting trough swings across Alabama. (Friday Night through next Thursday) Not a whole lot to talk about in the extended as a developing ridge over Texas expands and builds east through the weekend.
An axis of higher theta-E was shifting west with this trough, while ridging along the lee of the Appalachians was now building into GA and east AL. As such, morning lows should dip to around 60 to the lower 60s east, with upper 60s west.
An amplified upper-level pattern remains with a deep trough axis over the E CONUS and a stationary boundary over N Florida. The subtropical ridge axis has been suppressed by the trough axis, and that will not dramatically change. However, the position of the ridge axis is shifting, ushering back in an ESE flow over the next couple days.
(This afternoon through Friday) A positively-tilted upper-level trough remains in place over the eastern CONUS, with a vort max and associated moisture noted over Georgia in water vapor satellite imagery and 500 mb analysis. At the surface, high pressure encompasses much of the eastern CONUS. Overnight, dew points will drop into the mid-50s area-wide, with low temperatures in the lower 60s to mid-60s (with 50s in the mountains). The upper-level trough will shift eastward and dampen as a sprawling upper-level ridge nudges in from the west. At/near the surface, high pressure will anchor along the Appalachians, leading to a wedge/cold air damming (CAD) across much of the forecast area.
Dry weather and slightly warmer today, but near normal temperatures. Discussion: Current satellite imagery shows a few spots of patchy fog this morning, mainly north of I-40 where temperatures are cooler. Ridge of high pressure to our west shifts slightly further east today. This will result in another dry day, along with slightly warmer temperatures compared to yesterday. Even with the warmer temps, temperatures will still be near normal.
Outside of the Adirondacks, skies have become mostly clear as height rises aloft and a ridge of high pressure building in at the surface are resulting in large-scale subsidence across the region, which should continue through tonight.
Aloft, a broad ridge that has been in place for several days will slowly flatten out across the gulf coast Friday into Saturday allowing a developing upper low over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico to skirt it's periphery from East to west through the weekend. This low will provide a focus for scattered to widespread convection across the coastal waters Saturday with some of this activity expected to work inland along the coast to as far north as the I-10 corridor.
Temperatures will decrease a couple degrees today, as the upper ridge, centered over Northwest Texas and Southwest Oklahoma, moves slowly northeast.