Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
302 PM CST Wed Mar 6 2024 - Accumulating snowfall will end by early evening, so will end the Winter Weather Advisory by 6 pm - Near critical fire weather concerns this weekend as upper ridging moves overhead Afternoon webcams and social media reports indicate 1 to 3 inches (4 now along the border in Pembina County) of snow has fallen along the Canadian border in northeast North Dakota. Models have been showing more precipitation developing along the cold front, which is now passing through a Finley-Valley City- Gwinner line. Wind speeds will increase behind this cold front, especially across the southern half of the FA (highway 200 southward). Upper ridging will slowly move in after todays system with strong agreement among global guidance in the timing and amplitude through the weekend.
653 PM EST Wed Mar 6 2024 An area of low pressure will track north across coastal sections of the Carolinas through this evening, followed by the passage of an upper level trough overnight.
The low temperature forecast for tonight will be unusually difficult given the recent new snowfall and the models inability to pick up on it.
Water vapor imagery currently shows an upper impulse lifting across the Southern Appalachians with a more robust upper low approaching Southern CA. However, even if we don't clear out, there will still be a good chance for storms Thu evening as the cold front surges south. By Fri morning, cold front will be through the forecast area with the initial vort lobe moving into western OK/TX Panhandle. Fire weather concerns will remain on the low side through the weekend and will potentially ramp back up for the start of the work week. Cold front will surge through Fri and will provide below normal temps for Fri and Sat.
836 PM CST Wed Mar 6 2024 - A 20 to 45 percent chance of precipitation along a slow-moving cold front tonight across far northeastern South Dakota and west central Minnesota. - Dry with cooler temperatures Thursday.
844 PM EST Wed Mar 6 2024 Cooler, drier air arrives behind the front allowing for a dry day on Thursday.
Lingering showers from this low are still present in Mendocino and Lake Counties.
619 PM EST Wed Mar 6 2024 In the wake of a cold front light rain will come to an end but clouds and a chance of drizzle will persist overnight. Cooler, drier air arrives behind the front allowing for a dry day on Thursday.
125 PM PST Wed Mar 6 2024 A trough centered near Point Conception will bring rain and high elevation mountain snow tonight as it moves southeast across the area.
740 PM EST Wed Mar 6 2024 An area of low pressure will track north across coastal sections of the Carolinas through this evening, followed by the passage of an upper level trough overnight.
The main concern will be the low cloud/fog issues as we get into one more night with sea fog over the Coastal Bend. The low clouds look like they stall up there for a few hours, before moving south along the coast. A pre-frontal trough moves through the region overnight, but the real support (500 mb jet streak) trails the trough, and is focusing the precipitation to the north in the Hill Country.
Modest upper cut off low and associated trof move east into SoCal this evening with weak flow over the forecast region. Greatest snow totals will be across the Snake and Schell Creek Ranges given the expected track of the low. Upper flow becomes stronger and northerly as the trof progresses, bringing breezy northerly winds Thursday.
702 PM CST Wed Mar 6 2024 - Accumulating snowfall will end by early evening, so will end the Winter Weather Advisory by 6 pm - Near critical fire weather concerns this weekend as upper ridging moves overhead Band of precipitation that is mostly rain continues to push across our MN counties. Models have been showing more precipitation developing along the cold front, which is now passing through a Finley-Valley City- Gwinner line. Wind speeds will increase behind this cold front, especially across the southern half of the FA (highway 200 southward). Upper ridging will slowly move in after todays system with strong agreement among global guidance in the timing and amplitude through the weekend.
1037 PM CST Wed Mar 6 2024 - Light rain chances (20%-50%) return tonight as a cold front dives southeastward across the region.
Upper level trough and associated energy will continue to move away from the area today with the light showers/sprinkles moving across the southern waters and southwest Florida coming to an end later this morning. For the rest of the day we'll see partly to mostly sunny skies return as weak high pressure builds into the area.
As mentioned in the Aviation Discussion below, the low stratus may expand overnight, while the high level cirrus/cirrostratus will likely become thicker.
927 PM PST Wed Mar 6 2024 A trough centered near Point Conception will bring rain and high elevation mountain snow tonight as it moves southeast across the area.
1227 AM EST Thu Mar 7 2024 Cooler, drier air arrives behind the front allowing for a dry day on Thursday.
Dry and warmer today. Discussion: Short wave ridging aloft will continue to build over the area this morning then will exit to our east. Today will see the lower clouds scattering out across the area this later morning into the afternoon, but even as they exit high clouds will already be increasing.
1216 AM EST Thu Mar 7 2024 Low pressure along the Mid-Atlantic Coast will move east and away from the area tonight.
Temperatures should soar into the lower 70s for afternoon highs (upper 60s atop the higher Cumberland Plateau).
214 AM CST Thu Mar 7 2024 - A bit of light snow mixing with rain today as a potent cold front passes through.
Light northeast winds should keep the low cloud deck in place through the morning with associated patchy fog and drizzle continuing. However, as winds shift to the south this afternoon, the southern edge of the low clouds should retreat northward with the remainder of the cloud deck gradually breaking up. This should allow temperatures to warm up into the 60s for most of the cwa and near 70 in our south - although if the low clouds hang on for longer than expected, highs could be cooler. The increasing low level winds will also keep temperatures a bit warmer tonight in the 50s.
We did extend and expand mention of flurries with this update to areas with this low stratus, as light snow has been observed across the Bismarck area late this evening.
1125 PM CST Wed Mar 6 2024 - A 20 to 45 percent chance of precipitation along a slow-moving cold front tonight across far northeastern South Dakota and west central Minnesota. - Dry with cooler temperatures Thursday.
1000 PM CST Wed Mar 6 2024 - Accumulating snowfall will end by early evening, so will end the Winter Weather Advisory by 6 pm - Near critical fire weather concerns this weekend as upper ridging moves overhead Band of precipitation continues to push eastward across our MN counties, with web cams and obs showing that many spots have changed over to snow. Models have been showing more precipitation developing along the cold front, which is now passing through a Finley-Valley City- Gwinner line. Wind speeds will increase behind this cold front, especially across the southern half of the FA (highway 200 southward). Upper ridging will slowly move in after todays system with strong agreement among global guidance in the timing and amplitude through the weekend.
1152 PM CST Wed Mar 6 2024 - Accumulating snowfall will end by early evening, so will end the Winter Weather Advisory by 6 pm - Near critical fire weather concerns this weekend as upper ridging moves overhead Other than some flurries, not much left under the weakening band in western MN. Models have been showing more precipitation developing along the cold front, which is now passing through a Finley-Valley City- Gwinner line. Wind speeds will increase behind this cold front, especially across the southern half of the FA (highway 200 southward). Upper ridging will slowly move in after todays system with strong agreement among global guidance in the timing and amplitude through the weekend.
244 AM EST Thu Mar 7 2024 Weak high pressure works across today into tonight.
Temperatures are mainly in the mid to upper 70s with the exception of Big Pine Key, where radiational cooling and light winds has brought temperatures down into the lower 70s. That being said, the previous model runs had most of the activity staying just offshore or briefly touching the Lower Keys. A weak area of low pressure centered over the Gulf States will trek northeast to east overnight through Thursday, resulting in light to gentle south to southwest breezes. Another low pressure system will form over the Red River Basin of the Plains on Thursday.
pdf Spotty evening showers and possibly an isolated storm will continue across SE GA just ahead of the cold front.
530 AM CST Thu Mar 7 2024 - A bit of light snow mixing with rain today as a potent cold front passes through.
At the surface, broad high pressure is centered in central Saskatchewan and has been pushing into western North Dakota. Highs will be in the mid teens north to the lower 30s in the southwest. Expect some cloud cover in both the southwest, from the previously mentioned wave to our south, and in the north central from the exiting upper low. The warming trend begins on Friday as ensemble guidance is in strong agreement on potent ridging beginning to build to our west.
637 AM EST Thu Mar 7 2024 Seasonable temperatures are on tap today before slightly warmer air builds into the Ohio Valley Friday.
Weak high pressure will build down from eastern Canada into the Commonwealth Thursday and Friday to bring rain- free weather and continued mild temperatures. Any fog of consequence is hanging over the highest elevations. Although slightly cooler than recent days, the air mass remains mild in general, with readings staying above climo for early March. Highs both days will range mostly in the 50s, and could edge into the lower 60s over far southern PA.
Depending on how quickly this morning's convection moves out of northeast oklahoma, an additional severe threat may develop north of I-44 by late afternoon/evening as cold front approaches.
(Today through Friday) An upper-level ridge overhead will move further east through the short term period, being replaced with an upper level trough moving in from the Western US. Warm temperatures are expected again this afternoon, with temperatures largely in the mid to upper 80s, though western counties could reach the low 90s. Temperatures look to fall to the low 70s in the Rio Grande Valley and upper 60s across the northern counties. A cold front is expected to move through the area late Friday morning into Friday afternoon, bringing gusty northwesterly winds, and a drier air mass Friday afternoon. Temperatures remain warm Friday afternoon, likely reaching the mid to upper 80s before the bulk of the cooler air arrives.
600 AM CST Thu Mar 7 2024 (Thursday through Friday) Southwest flow aloft ahead of a low to mid level trough across the Texas panhandle has allowed for increased instability across the ArkLaTex early this morning. An upper-trough swinging east across the desert southwest will allow for increasing height falls resulting in increased instability across the ArkLaTex throughout the day. Storms will be enhanced by diurnal heating through the afternoon but will be limited from becoming organized and widespread severe due to a lack of strong upper-level forcing as the upper-trough will remain displaced to the west across northern New Mexico into Colorado through this afternoon.
However, there is still a chance for some svr storms further north into AR, as the assocd upper trof apchs the FA fm the west and a CDFNT moves into the state fm the NW. The colder air aloft, assocd with the upper trof, could provide more favorable conds for large hail and damaging winds with some of the stronger storms.
536 AM CST Thu Mar 7 2024 (Today through Friday) An upper-level ridge overhead will move further east through the short term period, being replaced with an upper level trough moving in from the Western US. Warm temperatures are expected again this afternoon, with temperatures largely in the mid to upper 80s, though western counties could reach the low 90s. Temperatures look to fall to the low 70s in the Rio Grande Valley and upper 60s across the northern counties. A cold front is expected to move through the area late Friday morning into Friday afternoon, bringing gusty northwesterly winds, and a drier air mass Friday afternoon. Temperatures remain warm Friday afternoon, likely reaching the mid to upper 80s before the bulk of the cooler air arrives.
A few strong to severe storms could develop tomorrow afternoon into evening as a strong low pressure system moves across our area.
The remainder of the forecast period will feature generally dry weather and warming temperatures at an upper ridge builds across the northern Rockies.
Ongoing cloud cover is forecast to dissipate for a short window of time this afternoon, allowing temperatures to climb into the low 70s with light and variable winds.
High pressure brings quieter weather over the next few days. (Today and tonight) Troughing departs to our east as high pressure begins building in from the eastern Pacific. Temperatures will remain a little cool, with highs ranging from the upper 50s along the coast to the lower 60s within the interior valleys.
Warmer and drier conditions look likely on Friday as ridging builds aloft and easterly flow sets up. The high temperatures today and tomorrow will reach the lower 80s along coastal areas and mid 80s over the interior.
A weak upper trough is expected to traverse the area late today and into Friday, with H5 ridging building into the region late this week and into the weekend. Warmer temperatures can be expected starting Friday, with afternoon highs in the 20s along the International Border and mid 30s for the southern Red River Valley.
Skies are clearing out over NorCal as the closed low moves through SoCal. A northwesterly jet streak on the back side of the departing trough looks to move across interior NorCal and may bring enough lift to pop a few afternoon showers over the Sierra, mainly to the south of Tahoe. A brief period of ridging aloft moves overhead on Friday leading to clearing skies and warming temperatures. As a result, Friday morning may be off to a cooler than normal start, with mid to upper 30s expected, before a warm up to the mid to upper 60s by the afternoon.
Temperatures will be warmer than normal with highs in the 70s, and lows in the upper 40s to mid 50s.
pdf The cold front that brought a few spotty showers last night over interior GA has slowed some progress and is currently analyzed near the FL/GA border as of 08Z. This front will clear the area later today and tonight with weak high pressure and a bit of a drier airmass building in. Although a "cold front" will have moved through, this is almost more of a layer moisture boundary, with lower dew points and temps into the 70s and low 80s expected.
Today: A big change in the model run is lower rain amounts due to very dry air in the low levels. Tonight: Low pressure tracking out of the southern Plains will be moving into northeast MO by 12z Friday. Lows will be in the lower 40s north to the upper 40s south.
An afternoon east coast sea breeze will keep the coast a bit cooler, with peak gusts 10-15 mph trailing the boundary. pdf The cold front that brought a few spotty showers last night over interior GA has slowed some progress and is currently analyzed near the FL/GA border as of 08Z. This front will clear the area later today and tonight with weak high pressure and a bit of a drier airmass building in. Although a "cold front" will have moved through, this is almost more of a layer moisture boundary, with lower dew points and temps into the 70s and low 80s expected.
1015 AM EST Thu Mar 7 2024 Seasonable temperatures are on tap today before slightly warmer air builds into the Ohio Valley Friday.
These features will drag a cold front across the PAH forecast area late Friday afternoon into Friday night.
1037 AM PST Thu Mar 7 2024 High pressure over the Pacific Northwest will hold steady through Friday morning with clear skies and patchy morning frost and fog.
An attendant cold front was also situated over the Oklahoma panhandle. Severe thunderstorms are expected to develop along a dryline and ahead of the cold front over the next several hours as dynamic lift overspreads the area. Meanwhile, severe storm development is also possible along/ahead of the warm front - though whether these storms impact our area is uncertain as satellite indicates the warm front lifting into southern Kansas as of 2PM. Nevertheless, storms along the warm front will pose a tornado threat with RAP effective helicity values prog'd at 200-300 m2/s2. Storms could congeal into a linear MCS tonight upon reaching central Oklahoma as the cold front approaches and becomes quasi- stationary.
Some flurries have been observed across north central North Dakota this morning, as wrap around moisture from the low in southern Manitoba has helped bring in some stratus across the area. At the surface, broad high pressure is centered in central Saskatchewan and has been pushing into western North Dakota. Highs will be in the mid teens north to the lower 30s in the southwest. Expect some cloud cover in both the southwest, from the previously mentioned wave to our south, and in the north central from the exiting upper low. The warming trend begins on Friday as ensemble guidance is in strong agreement on potent ridging beginning to build to our west.
These chances do increase with time as the upper trof drops heights and draws in a little cooler air aloft, as it drives a cold front toward us Friday. Overall rainfall thru the event looks to average from one half to around one and a half inches, with the higher amounts west (Ozarks) and lower amounts east (Pennyrile).
Will have dry northwesterly flow aloft tonight into Friday with upper ridge moving overhead Friday night. Only impact will be the potential for some patchy freezing fog development later tonight in the Snake Plain and some southeast mountain valleys. The upper level ridge peaks overhead early in this period, but by Sun evening there is a risk that the central Idaho mountains will start seeing some precipitation in its western portions. The incoming trough spreads precipitation eastward during the day Mon and continues Mon night through at least Tue night, then just the eastern and southern highlands on Wed/Wed night. Overnight lows at the lowest elevations are expected to stay above freezing Mon night and Tue night. And most locations will get below freezing.
The 12Z KKEY RAOB sampled southwesterlies and adequate moisture (dewpoint depressions 5-7 degC) through the lower troposphere, which was just enough to kick off and maintain a Lower Keys reverse cloud line. Temperatures range from the mid to upper 80s and dewpoints are in the lower 70s.
148 PM MST Thu Mar 7 2024 - Convectively driven snow showers will be possible today into Friday as a large trough moves through the area.
1159 AM CST Thu Mar 7 2024 (Today through Friday) An upper-level ridge overhead will move further east through the short term period, being replaced with an upper level trough moving in from the Western US. Warm temperatures are expected again this afternoon, with temperatures largely in the mid to upper 80s, though western counties could reach the low 90s. Temperatures look to fall to the low 70s in the Rio Grande Valley and upper 60s across the northern counties. A cold front is expected to move through the area late Friday morning into Friday afternoon, bringing gusty northwesterly winds, and a drier air mass Friday afternoon. Temperatures remain warm Friday afternoon, likely reaching the mid to upper 80s before the bulk of the cooler air arrives.
* Much cooler on Friday with rain possibly ending as light snow or flurries in central Kansas (little if any snow accums). Main challenge into this evening is the position of the surface warm front in vicinity of the KS/OK border area where heightened window for surface based severe storms/supercells will be possible.
903 AM PST Thu Mar 7 2024 High pressure brings quieter weather over the next few days. yesterday we had a low pressure lurking off the coast generating showers and today the low pressure is well south with low clouds/breezy north winds in its wake. While generally drier conditions prevail this morning, there have been reports of drizzle given the low clouds and ample low level moisture. As noted below, do expect the low clouds to gradually clear by this afternoon leading to more sunshine today. (Today and tonight) Troughing departs to our east as high pressure begins building in from the eastern Pacific. Temperatures will remain a little cool, with highs ranging from the upper 50s along the coast to the lower 60s within the interior valleys.
High pressure will exist over the Northern Rockies for the next few days, providing plenty of sunshine and light winds across the region.
148 PM EST Thu Mar 7 2024 Weak high pressure works across today into tonight.
(Tomorrow through Thursday) Showers and storms will be ongoing tomorrow ahead of the main trough axis and surface cold front that will move through the area tomorrow afternoon and evening. Severe potential will remain limited during the morning and afternoon, but will increase across SE OK and WC AR just ahead of the cold front where any daytime heating will be maximized.
230 PM EST Thu Mar 7 2024 Weak high pressure will continue to build in over the region through the rest of today with partly cloudy skies after a cloudy and foggy start to the day this morning. For the rest of Friday, heights will be on the rise and low-level winds increase out of the southeast ahead of our next cold front.
The main thing today will be how much cloud cover holds for areas along and north of the highway 200 corridor. A weak upper trough is expected to traverse the area late today and into Friday, with H5 ridging building into the region late this week and into the weekend. Warmer temperatures can be expected starting Friday, with afternoon highs in the 20s along the International Border and mid 30s for the southern Red River Valley.
Late tonight and tomorrow morning, a strong cold front will move south through the forecast area resulting in much cooler high temperatures in the 40s and 50s. With the much cooler air mass in place, there is a chance that some snowflakes may mix in with this rain shower activity but have opted to keep the precipitation type as liquid given forecast low-level atmospheric temperatures profiles and surface temperatures above freezing.
Along the Keys, temps currently in the low 80s and dew points in the mid 70s reflect the nature of the humidity outside. Satellite shows some thin cloud bands reaching northeasterly from the Lower Keys, so this will be something to key an eye on as the day continues. With a flattening ridge over the Gulf, enjoy the sunshine that's available through today as some clouds will be able to fill in later tonight. Weak low pressure will move quickly up the U.
144 PM MST Thu Mar 7 2024 The colder air mass is moving away and warmer temperatures are already moving in from the south and southwest as the supporting ridge of upper-level high pressure begins to build into the western states. This trend toward warmer than average temperatures will continue and sustain itself over the next several days.
Temperatures will be warmer than normal with highs in the 70s, and lows in the upper 40s to mid 50s. (Friday night through next Thursday) A cold front with track south across West Central Texas later on Friday, bringing cooler temperatures and some gusty northerly winds to the area in its wake.
Expecting to see noticeably warmer temperatures today to begin to melt some of this snow cover as we enter a multi-day above-normal warming trend. The remainder of the forecast period will feature generally dry weather and warming temperatures at an upper ridge builds across the northern Rockies.