Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
One difference from the last time we were this warm is that the dew points will likely be in the low 60's to upper 50's instead of around 70, so it should feel less muggy than last round of multiple mid 80 degree days. Chattanooga Airport, TN 83 57 85 60 / 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 80 55 82 57 / 0 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 80 54 82 57 / 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 75 48 77 51 / 0 0 0 0.
High pressure will continue our pleasant and dry weather for another day. High pressure will slowly continue to shift eastward allowing for our winds to become more south to southeast. This will allow temperatures to be a bit warmer than the past few days with afternoon highs approaching the low to near 80 degrees. It remains clear and with temperatures in the low to mid 50s overnight. The upper air pattern will feature an amplifying ridge developing over the central CONUS and expanding northward towards the Upper Midwest and the Ohio Valley.
232 AM EDT Tue Sep 9 2025 Prolonged dry conditions are expected with high pressure in place through mid week characterized by pleasant afternoon temperatures and morning fog for river valleys.
112 AM EDT Tue Sep 9 2025 High pressure maintains control over the area through much of the week, yielding a stretch of dry weather amid a subtle warming trend. Continued drying of soils from recent rainfall coupled with afternoon mixing into very dry air at the top of the boundary layer should allow afternoon RH values across the lower elevations to fall into the mid 20s to lower 30s, but with recent rainfall fire concerns, even in unsheltered fine fuels, will remain somewhat tame.
143 AM EDT Tue Sep 9 2025 Dry and cool high pressure will persist over the region through this week with below normal temperatures expected through mid-week. Associated NE low level flow will steadily augment through the period over our area due to increasing pressure gradient associated with a cyclone organizing over the Gulf Stream off the Carolina Coast. Thermal and moisture trough within the inverted ridge will therefore remain entrenched over our CWA through tonight, resulting in temperatures around 10 degrees below climo and surface dewpoints mixing out into the 40s across much of the area this afternoon.
The mid-levels will consist of weak troughing over the Southeast U. It'll strengthen this afternoon through the overnight in response to ridging building over the Central Plains. At the surface, a stationary front will remain south and southeast of our area, while High pressure is located over New England. The periphery of the High will stretch well to the south and across our area, being the dominant factor in our forecast. Highs should range from the upper 70s to near 80 degrees across our SC counties, to the low/mid 80s across our GA counties. Lows will range from the lower 60s far inland to near 70 degrees near the beaches.
1205 AM MDT Tue Sep 9 2025 - Expect isolated to scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms focused over the higher terrain the next few afternoons with a small chance of storms lingering into the early morning hours.
215 AM EDT Tue Sep 9 2025 High pressure maintains control over the area through much of the week, yielding a stretch of dry weather amid a subtle warming trend. After a cool morning, temperatures are expected to warm into the 70s to low 80s in the lowlands and 60s to mid 70s along the mountains. Meanwhile, the current stretch of quiet weather continues uninterrupted throughout the day under the influence of high pressure.
Highs in the low to mid 70s are near to slightly below early September climo with the largest departures from the historical average (3-6 degrees) across the southern tier.
(Through Tonight) Spotty showers will linger through the morning hours most likely across portions of northeast Oklahoma and possibly into the early afternoon across northwest Arkansas near the mid level trough axis as it slowly exits the area. The trough axis should exit the area by midday taking any shower chances with it as the upper ridge begins to build over the Plains. Some morning cloud cover will hold temps down for a bit across northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas before rebounding in the afternoon into the low to mid 80s once again.
Drier air and clear skies will lead to another cozy night with overnight lows in the low 50s to upper 60s inland, and in the upper 70s along the coast.
145 AM EDT Tue Sep 9 2025 High pressure overhead will allow radiational cooling to push temperatures below normal tonight. High pressure overhead tonight will bring clear skies and light winds, setting up a pretty favorable environment for radiational cooling. Temperatures are currently in the 40s, but should fall into the low to mid 40s across much of the region. High pressure will continue to dominate through the period.
Broad mid to upper level troughing blanketing eastern North America reaches southward into the Gulf this morning. At least for today, the western half of this trough will remain balled up in the eastern Gulf and contribute to a moist and confluent zone across Florida and the Keys. The lower level ridge will remain across our area after mid week.
1010 PM PDT Mon Sep 8 2025 * Fall-like system brings breezy winds, cooler temperatures, and dry conditions to the Desert Southwest this week.
--------------------------------------------------------------- High pressure centered over the region will allow for maximum radiational cooling with clear skies and light winds, so isolated river valley fog will be possible this morning given the relatively warm river temperatures.
pdf A slow moving frontal boundary will be just south of the area through Tonight, with high pressure to the north. Due to the pressure gradient between the high and the front, the elevated winds will continue over the coastal waters Today, keeping winds quite gusty at the coast.
1253 AM EDT Tue Sep 9 2025 High pressure will dominate the weather pattern through the week with dry conditions and a slow warming trend. High pressure sprawling from New England into the Carolinas will dominate the weather today and tonight. Key message(s): - High pressure maintains a dry pattern with gradually warming temperatures.
Southerly surface winds will advect much warmer air into the region today with highs reaching the upper 80s and lower 90s.
113 AM PDT Tue Sep 9 2025 * Fall-like system brings breezy winds, cooler temperatures, and dry conditions to the Desert Southwest this week. Morning water vapor satellite imagery shows a large low pressure system centered over the northern CA and southern OR coasts.
151 AM EDT Tue Sep 9 2025 High pressure overhead will allow radiational cooling to push temperatures below normal tonight. High pressure overhead tonight will bring clear skies and light winds, setting up a pretty favorable environment for radiational cooling. Temperatures are currently in the 40s, but should fall into the low to mid 40s across much of the region. High pressure will continue to dominate through the period.
113 AM EDT Tue Sep 9 2025 High pressure and dry conditions will persist through much of the week.
108 AM EDT Tue Sep 9 2025 A series of high pressure centers remain in control of our weather through the week and into the weekend. An area of high pressure will crest overhead today, allowing for large scale subsidence.
Upper-level ridging builds into the middle of the country with persistent southerly to southwesterly low-level flow. The upper ridge axis moves right over the area late in the week and into the weekend and given this pattern, temperatures in the 90s look likely. Dewpoints have been consistently forecast to be in the lower 60s during the afternoon so despite the hot air temperatures, humidity values will be relatively low so heat index values may only be a degree or two warmer than the air temperature during peak heating.
149 AM EDT Tue Sep 9 2025 High pressure overhead will allow radiational cooling to push temperatures below normal tonight. High pressure overhead tonight will bring clear skies and light winds, setting up a pretty favorable environment for radiational cooling. Temperatures are currently in the 40s, but should fall into the low to mid 40s across much of the region. High pressure will continue to dominate through the period.
1256 AM PDT Tue Sep 9 2025 Updated at 1206 AM PDT Tue Sep 9 2025 * Dry conditions through Tuesday afternoon as upper ridge builds over the Four Corners, keeping drier SW flow aloft over Nevada.
-High pressure will return overall quiet weather this week along with temperatures climbing into the 70s. The remainder of the CWA can expect the cloud cover to remain north of the bridge. Most sunny skies will result in daytime highs in the low to mid 70s this afternoon with diurnal heating processes. Overnight lows across northern lower will drop to the mid 40s for interior counties while eastern upper along with locations near the shorelines remain in the low to mid 50s.
(Today) Not much change to the local weather pattern as high pressure along the East Coast remains the major force in the sensible weather. Expect similar conditions today as we saw yesterday with afternoon highs rising into the low to mid 80s under mostly sunny skies.
Today, there is a medium to likely (40% to 70%) chance of rain for the coastal counties, eastern and southern portions of the northern ranchlands as well as the mid Rio Grande Valley, with the greatest chances across the lower Rio Grande Valley along and east of I-69 E, where lingering surface convergence and elevated PWAT values reside in association with a weak frontal boundary stalled near the southern border. Meanwhile, PoP's across the Rio Grande Plains and western portions of the northern ranchlands range from less than 15% to 30%, due to increased subsidence aloft from an expanding area of mid-level ridging, centered over western Texas.
Look for warmer conditions today with highs in the 80s. The pattern currently features a mid-level ridge over the intermountain west and NW flow over the CWA.
152 AM MST Tue Sep 9 2025 - Temperatures will stay within the normal range through mid week, resulting in locally Moderate Heat Risk for the lower deserts, before cooling slightly late week.
Currently at the surface, the persistent weak area of low pressure continues to spin over the eastern Gulf, but is forecast to drift west into the central Gulf through midweek then gradually dissipate through the second half of the week.
A weak upper trough will linger across the southeast US through the week.
122 AM EDT Tue Sep 9 2025 A period of tranquil early autumn weather is in store for the central Appalachians this week as a strong high pressure system settles over the region. However, overnight and early morning hours will be notably cooler, bringing a crisp feel to the air. Key Message: 1) Autumn weather continues Pattern features a 5h trough axis over the lower Ohio Valley into the Deep South, with southerly flow aloft while at the surface, high pressure wedges southward from New England. After a chilly start to some areas, temps should climb into the 70s for most this afternoon, with some 60s in the higher mountains.
- Below average temperature today although a warming trend starting mid-week with warmer than average temperatures through the weekend. (Through Tuesday) Warmer today as temperatures start approaching seasonably normal with highs in the mid to upper 80s with a few areas in our southwest reaching 90 degrees. However would not expect storms to remain severe very far east in our area as they would be tracking into less unstable and air and away from the low-level jet maxima.
A troughing pattern over much of the eastern half of the United States will maintain northwest flow aloft across the region today. This, in addition to northeast to easterly flow around high pressure at the surface centered across the northeast United States, will keep an overall slightly drier airmass in place across the forecast area today. Highs will be a touch warmer today compared to Monday, as they range from the middle 80s to around 90. Lows tonight will likewise be a touch warmer as they range from the low to middle 60s.
(Rest of Today and Tonight) Mostly clear conditions this morning, with high pressure situated to the north and east of the region. Expect more of the same as ample sunshine should help to warm temperatures into the low to mid 80s once again in this dry air mass.
446 AM PDT Tue Sep 9 2025 * Fall-like system brings breezy winds, cooler temperatures, and dry conditions to the Desert Southwest this week.
Highs will be in the lower to mid 90s, thankfully, a relatively dry airmass will keep the heat index values right at the actual temperature.
A troughing pattern over much of the eastern half of the United States will maintain northwest flow aloft across the region today. This, in addition to northeast to easterly flow around high pressure at the surface centered across the northeast United States, will keep an overall slightly drier airmass in place across the forecast area today.
616 AM CDT Tue Sep 9 2025 A weak upper trough will linger across the southeast US through the week.
SCA conditions continue across the waters late this morning w/ observations around 10 AM showing East winds of 24 knots at the Saint George Island Bridge and Buoy 42012 reporting East winds at 20 knots and seas of 5 ft with a 6 second dominant period. Persistent northeast flow over the next several days with high pressure situated northeast of the waters and a stalled frontal boundary/low pressure to the south over the Gulf.
Warmer temperatures in the low 90s and drier air at the sfc will help keep heavier rainfall totals at bay, limiting chances for flooding. By Wednesday, dry air and high pressure will gradually filter in, decreasing precipitation chances and maintaining highs in the low 90s.
717 AM EDT Tue Sep 9 2025 A series of high pressure centers remain in control of our weather through the week and into the weekend. An area of high pressure will crest overhead today, allowing for large scale subsidence. A large scale ridge across western North America keeps seasonably cool and dry conditions in place through the week, while a broad trough prevails across the Eastern US. A series of weak troughs and ridges transit through the Northeast this week with a broad trough across eastern North America, while temperatures remain near to below normal through the weekend.
Drier air and clear skies will lead to another cozy night with overnight lows in the low 50s to upper 60s inland, and in the upper 70s along the coast. Ridging to our west will expand over the Plains and move eastward, resulting in slightly warmer conditions. Highs will generally be in the low to mid 90s. As ridging aloft continues to dominate, the remainder of the forecast period is expected to be hot with a gradual increase in humidity from strengthening surface onshore winds.
346 AM MDT Tue Sep 9 2025 - Expect isolated to scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms focused over the higher terrain through Wednesday with a small chance of storms lingering into the early morning hours.
Generally dry conditions are then expected through Wednesday afternoon as upper ridging builds in to the Plains. Winds increase out of the southeast on Wednesday with gusts to 30 to 35 mph west river as lee side troughing sets up along the Rockies. Wednesday evening the axis of the upper level ridge is over our area and the ridge continues to move east.
In the upper levels, broad troughing across ERN Conus has become flattened as the main low over ERN Canada pushes EWD. Across AL and much of the Gulf Coast, the flow will be very weak, but with some weak broad troughing trying to dig well to our N.
Early this morning we continue to have a stalled boundary across north Florida with a weak area of low pressure over the eastern Gulf with some patches of light rain streaming into coastal counties from convection well offshore. Currently at the surface, the persistent weak area of low pressure continues to spin over the eastern Gulf, but is forecast to drift west into the central Gulf through midweek then gradually dissipate through the second half of the week.
This weekend, the low pressure system will slowly move through the central Rockies, generating favorable conditions for multiple rounds of widespread rain showers and thunderstorms for the greater NE Montana area. Generally high pressure in control, with a few embedded upper level disturbances that set off these hit-or-miss storms through mid-week.
Temperatures will be in the low 80s and upper 70s for most of the CWA which is 3-5 degrees below normal for this time of year.
Still just enough moisture for isolated showers and thunderstorms each day, generally in the higher terrain and to the south and east of Tucson.
River drainages are seeing more efficient cooling this morning with lower wind speeds so have adjusted below NBM guidance to the low 60s in these areas. This low is encountering hostile westerly shear and dry air into the circulation which, fortunately, is not a concern for tropical development given these reasons, but will slowly drift west bringing a lobe of moisture with it.
726 AM EDT Tue Sep 9 2025 High pressure builds over the area today, then slowly exits into the southern Maritimes through Wednesday.
Light north to northeasterly flow through the column has allowed drier air to work into the region, resulting in a couple cooler mornings today and tomorrow. Temperatures will dip as low as the lower 60s over the Hill Country with mid to upper 60s elsewhere. Weak ridging approaches on Wednesday, resulting in increased high temperatures.
Low pressure situated along the OR/CA coast today will result in increased moisture into Southeast Idaho in Southwest flow. Unsettled pattern continues through the week, though models have started to consolidate precipitation mainly over the higher elevations with less coverage through the Snake Plain.
Updated Aviation Discussion - Temperatures will stay within the normal range through mid week, resulting in locally Moderate Heat Risk for the lower deserts, before cooling slightly late week.
651 AM EDT Tue Sep 9 2025 High pressure will dominate the weather pattern through the week with dry conditions and a slow warming trend. Key message(s): - High pressure maintains a dry pattern with gradually warming temperatures.
Thus the main impacts of the phasing mid-level short wave trough will be mainly a continued increase in high level cloud cover from the west through this evening. While warm advection aloft strengthens somewhat ahead of the trough this evening, deeper moisture continues to lag the better forcing associated with the trough. Warmer thermal profiles Wednesday should support temps in the upper 70s to lower 80s inland of Lake Michigan, where a larger lake-cooling footprint will keep areas along the lake in the low-mid 70s. A weak cold front will sag south of the area late.
Mid morning satellite imagery showed the circulation around an upper level trough over our CWA but also a disturbance along the Mississippi Gulf coast. Otherwise, surface ridging across our CWA from the northeast will help keep drier air across our CWA and allow temperatures to top out a degree or two above normal. A troughing pattern over much of the eastern half of the United States will maintain northwest flow aloft across the region today. This, in addition to northeast to easterly flow around high pressure at the surface centered across the northeast United States, will keep an overall slightly drier airmass in place across the forecast area today.
631 AM EDT Tue Sep 9 2025 Dry and cool high pressure will persist over the region through this week with below normal temperatures expected through mid-week. Associated NE low level flow will steadily augment through the period over our area due to increasing pressure gradient associated with a cyclone organizing over the Gulf Stream off the Carolina Coast. Thermal and moisture trough within the inverted ridge will therefore remain entrenched over our CWA through tonight, resulting in temperatures around 10 degrees below climo and surface dewpoints mixing out into the 40s across much of the area this afternoon. As of 1221 AM EDT Tuesday: Reinforcing high pressure will push out of eastern Canada into the northeastern United States on Wednesday as an upper low drifts across Ontario and Quebec.
638 AM EDT Tue Sep 9 2025 A period of tranquil early autumn weather is in store for the central Appalachians this week as a strong high pressure system settles over the region. However, overnight and early morning hours will be notably cooler, bringing a crisp feel to the air. Key Message: 1) Autumn weather continues Pattern features a 5h trough axis over the lower Ohio Valley into the Deep South, with southerly flow aloft while at the surface, high pressure wedges southward from New England. After a chilly start to some areas, temps should climb into the 70s for most this afternoon, with some 60s in the higher mountains.
544 AM MDT Tue Sep 9 2025 - Expect isolated to scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms focused over the higher terrain through Wednesday with a small chance of storms lingering into the early morning hours.
An upper level low south of the area will slowly move eastward today and Wednesday, weakening as it does so.
624 AM CDT Tue Sep 9 2025 (Today) Not much change to the local weather pattern as high pressure along the East Coast remains the major force in the sensible weather. Expect similar conditions today as we saw yesterday with afternoon highs rising into the low to mid 80s under mostly sunny skies.
(Through Tonight) Spotty showers will linger through the morning hours most likely across portions of northeast Oklahoma and possibly into the early afternoon across northwest Arkansas near the mid level trough axis as it slowly exits the area. The trough axis should exit the area by midday taking any shower chances with it as the upper ridge begins to build over the Plains. Some morning cloud cover will hold temps down for a bit across northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas before rebounding in the afternoon into the low to mid 80s once again. Bowlan (Wednesday through Tuesday) A fairly persistent forecast is in store through the rest of the work week and into the weekend under the influence of a seasonably strong upper ridge. Upper heights continue to rise through the end of the week as the ridge strengthens over the Plains.
High pressure is sitting off to our northeast and that will keep things quiet into Tuesday. Weak southerly flow will give us a slightly warmer start to the day with lows in the 50s.
802 AM EDT Tue Sep 9 2025 A series of high pressure centers remain in control of our weather through the week and into the weekend. An area of high pressure will crest overhead today, allowing for large scale subsidence. A large scale ridge across western North America keeps seasonably cool and dry conditions in place through the week, while a broad trough prevails across the Eastern US. A series of weak troughs and ridges transit through the Northeast this week with a broad trough across eastern North America, while temperatures remain near to below normal through the weekend.
Despite the cool start to the day, look for afternoon temperatures to soar as diurnal ranges remain unusually large in the low daytime humidity. High pressure is sitting off to our northeast and that will keep things quiet into Tuesday. Weak southerly flow will give us a slightly warmer start to the day with lows in the 50s.
1227 PM CDT Tue Sep 9 2025 Mid morning satellite imagery showed the circulation around an upper level trough over our CWA but also a disturbance along the Mississippi Gulf coast. Otherwise, surface ridging across our CWA from the northeast will help keep drier air across our CWA and allow temperatures to top out a degree or two above normal. A troughing pattern over much of the eastern half of the United States will maintain northwest flow aloft across the region today. This, in addition to northeast to easterly flow around high pressure at the surface centered across the northeast United States, will keep an overall slightly drier airmass in place across the forecast area today.
* Cooler temperatures remain this week, a touch of warming over the weekend.