Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
An area of high pressure will wobble around the Southwest through much of the forecast period. As this trough pushes eastward, the ridge will continue to strengthen over the region. Even with limited moisture and warm air aloft capping the majority of convection today and tomorrow, the 06Z U of A WRF run and the SPC HREF guidance suggests a potential shower and/or virga being possible across the higher terrain.
Temperatures become a touch warmer this afternoon as a gradual lifting and breaking of the low clouds is expected by late afternoon, but the majority of the afternoon should remain socked in, keeping temperatures in the 70s for most. Thursday finally sees a more substantial amount of sunshine alongside southerly winds, allowing for warmer temperatures back into the 80s for the majority.
A weak upper level low is over the Montana Divide now. Models show this low moving south southeast this morning and moving into southwest Wyoming by late this afternoon as high pressure builds in over our area. Dry conditions will continue Thursday under the influence of high pressure.
Cloud cover associated with a trough axis that is pushing west into west TN/east MS should linger around through the day. As this feature continues to move west, easterly flow will advect in some drier air with dewpoints dropping into the low to mid 50s by this afternoon.
509 AM MDT Wed Sep 4 2024 - A storm system on Wednesday will lead to another round of showers and thunderstorms along with cooler temperatures.
619 AM CDT Wed Sep 4 2024 (Today through Thursday) A coastal trough of low pressure and abundant deep tropical moisture remains in place through Thursday, maintaining a healthy chance of rain across Deep South Texas. NBM POPs seemed a little too high for Thursday at the moment, so have trimmed them back 15 to 25 percent using a blend with ConsShort, keeping the highest percentages near the coast and lower RGV. Expect temperatures a degree or two cooler, still reaching into the upper 80s to low 90s each afternoon and mid to upper 70s each morning.
- A cold front moves through Thursday afternoon, bringing a chance (20-40%) for showers/storms Thursday afternoon/night.
339 AM MDT Wed Sep 4 2024 - A storm system on Wednesday will lead to another round of showers and thunderstorms along with cooler temperatures.
604 AM CDT Wed Sep 4 2024 - An advancing cold front will bring low chances (30%) for showers and thunderstorms this evening and overnight.
7" along with areas of vorticity associated with a mid level low pressure north of the area rotate through the region. As that low pressure moves northward tonight, rain chances will drop to 35-60% inland and 60-80% along the Coastal Bend. The relief from the rain though will be short lived as rain chances increase once again Thursday to 45-80% as showers and storms develop ahead of an approaching weak cold front.
Building high pressure will continue to support widespread moderate HeatRisk and near critical fire weather conditions through Thursday.
940 AM CDT Wed Sep 4 2024 - Patchy near-surface smoke from distant wildfires is expected today as a cold frontal boundary passes through.
532 AM CDT Wed Sep 4 2024 - A cold front will bring low rain chances (20 to 40 percent) Wednesday night into Thursday.
611 AM CDT Wed Sep 4 2024 (Today through Thursday) The highest rainfall chances and greatest concerns for flooding across South-Central Texas have diminished into and during early this morning as the atmosphere has become overworked after the active weather that occurred during yesterday into yesterday evening. Thursday looks to trend a tad warmer, especially out west, underneath partly cloudy skies. Overnight lows remain steady from the upper 60s across the Hill Country to the low to mid 70s elsewhere.
A weak, dry cold front will continue to cross the area ushering in higher concentrations of smoke for northern Utah.
913 AM EDT Wed Sep 4 2024 Dry through Thursday under high pressure.
709 AM EDT Wed Sep 4 2024 High pressure will maintain cloud-free skies, pleasant afternoons, and chilly nights through Thursday.
459 AM MDT Wed Sep 4 2024 KEY MESSAGES: 1) Cold front this afternoon and evening will bring a few showers and thunderstorms along with gusty north winds.
504 AM PDT Wed Sep 4 2024 Building high pressure will continue to support widespread moderate HeatRisk and near critical fire weather conditions through Thursday.
527 AM EDT Wed Sep 4 2024 Dry through Thursday under high pressure.
* Warmer each of today and Thursday, but nothing too crazy.
---------------------------------------------------------------- Mostly sunny skies (aside from some cirrus south of I-70) and seasonable temperatures continue today as a weak upper ridge builds over the region. ------------------------------------------------------------------- Weak height falls begin to occur tonight into Thursday as the upper ridge flattens to our south ahead of an advancing upper low that begins to dig into the upper Great Lakes.
This will be due to broad low level atmospheric ridging influences across much of eastern CONUS being strong enough to continue to quash any precipitation chances across our area along with a quasi unorganized to slight ridging pattern aloft. As low level atmospheric ridging influences begin to shift slowly eastward, a more southerly low level atmospheric flow pattern will become established, resulting in highs a few degrees above seasonal normal values on Thursday.
(Today and tonight) Water vapor imagery suggests that the trough across Texas which has been responsible for clouds and rain the past several days continues to become less defined as it shifts slowly eastward this morning. Clouds should decrease through the day and become more scattered by the afternoon even in southern parts of the area, with highs in the low to mid 80s for most locations.
Light amounts were being reporting as the activity was encountering drier air in the lower levels.
1100 AM EDT Wed Sep 4 2024 High pressure from the north will provide cooler temperatures for the remainder of the week under decent north to northeasterly flow.
403 AM CDT Wed Sep 4 2024 - Patchy near-surface smoke from distant wildfires is expected today as a cold frontal boundary passes through.
726 AM EDT Wed Sep 4 2024 High pressure over the region slides offshore this afternoon and remains northeast of the area through Thursday.
635 AM EDT Wed Sep 4 2024 High pressure slowly shifts east toward New England through Thursday.
Highs will be in the lower 80s with lows in the mid 50s to around 60. Afternoon temperatures will push well into the 80s ahead of an advancing strong cold front. A strengthening upper level trough will be diving into the upper MS Valley.
120 PM EDT Wed Sep 4 2024 High pressure will maintain cloud-free skies, pleasant afternoons, and chilly nights through Thursday.
121 PM EDT Wed Sep 4 2024 Dry through Thursday under high pressure.
Dry conditions and above normal temperatures continue through this week with high pressure in control.
High pressure will bring hotter temperatures, with well above average temperatures expected through the remainder of the week. Heat is the main story this week, caused by a building area of high pressure that currently is over a broad area of the lower deserts in Eastern California and Western Arizona.
Much of this activity is brought to us by the upper low and the old stationary frontal boundary along I-10 with SW flow aloft pulling anvils eastward. Otherwise little change over the next day or two with muggy warm 80s for highs on Thursday and lows again tomorrow night hanging in the lower 70s for an average, but some upper 60s in our far N Counties in OK/AR.
1230 PM CDT Wed Sep 4 2024 - A cold front will bring low rain chances (20 to 40 percent) Wednesday night into Thursday.
1221 PM CDT Wed Sep 4 2024 * Warmer each of today and Thursday, but nothing too crazy.
Tonight and Thursday Afternoon satellite imagery shows a weak upper low moving into the southeast corner of the Gem State. The smoke and haze has kept temperatures running a bit cooler than forecast today but with that exiting the region, and high pressure building over us tomorrow, the heat will return over the days ahead. Expect low to mid 80s tomorrow in the valleys, 70s in the higher terrain with ample sunshine.
1223 PM CDT Wed Sep 4 2024 (Today through Thursday) The highest rainfall chances and greatest concerns for flooding across South-Central Texas have diminished into and during early this morning as the atmosphere has become overworked after the active weather that occurred during yesterday into yesterday evening. Thursday looks to trend a tad warmer, especially out west, underneath partly cloudy skies. Overnight lows remain steady from the upper 60s across the Hill Country to the low to mid 70s elsewhere.
/96 (Now through Thursday) A wet pattern sets up today through the end of the work week as southerly flow around a weak area of low pressure in the northwest Gulf brings deep layer moisture into the area.
103 PM EDT Wed Sep 4 2024 High pressure slowly shifts east toward New England through Thursday.
Highs will remain on the cooler side as temperatures reach into the upper 80s to around 90 degrees with lows in the 70s. As mentioned in the previous discussion, global models are favoring a loosely organized feature that gradually evolves into somewhat of a closed low as it moves away from SE Texas. Hi-res and convective allowing models continue to be on the opposite, more aggressive end of the spectrum with showing a low pressure center and a more organized feature with rain bands.
209 PM CDT Wed Sep 4 2024 - Very scattered thunderstorm chances (up to 40%) Thursday afternoon following the cold front passage.
No major changes to forecast expectations today, as supportive southerly flow will work in tandem with more sunshine to warm temperatures into the low to mid 80s this afternoon. Active weather is set to return tonight, as a cold front passes from northwest to southeast across the area. The cold front is forecast to be moving across western Minnesota by 00z, which is the earliest we expect convection to develop. QPF expectations have not changed much, as the highest amounts (~0. Highs will run slightly cooler on Thursday (mid-70s), however it's the reinforcing shot of fall- like air that will have folks grabbing the sweaters and hoodies by late week.
A few showers will accompany a cold frontal passage Thursday night.
247 PM MDT Wed Sep 4 2024 KEY MESSAGES: 1) A cold front will bring gusty winds to the area this evening as smoke conditions improve.
1244 PM CDT Wed Sep 4 2024 Latest surface analysis still had a stalled boundary just south of our CWA and an inverted trough that appears to have stalled nearly along the Mississippi river. There was a pool of moisture with lower 70F dew points associated with the inverted trough but drier air with low to mid 60F dew points was noted back over our east Mississippi zones.
214 PM CDT Wed Sep 4 2024 - Shower and thunderstorm chances increase overnight into Thursday morning as cold front pushes through the area.
304 PM EDT Wed Sep 4 2024 High pressure will maintain cloud-free skies, pleasant afternoons, and chilly nights through Thursday.
- Warmer and continued dry conditions over the weekend. IR continues to show the upper level trough over the CWA with cooling cloud tops over the Bighorns, where the most active shower activity is occurring. The cooler mid level temperatures are keeping for a more buoyant and not as mixed boundary layer. Otherwise, more seasonable temperatures this afternoon with relatively light winds with a slackened gradient behind last night's cold front. The main upper level trough will exit northeast becoming more progressive into the high plains and upper Great Plains as ridging starts to build back into the CWA from southwest overnight into Thursday.
144 PM EDT Wed Sep 4 2024 Dry through Thursday under high pressure.
102 PM MDT Wed Sep 4 2024 An upper level trough is progressing to the S and E of the region this afternoon. Behind it, a backdoor front will pass through the area this evening, bringing cooler temperatures through Thursday. Upper level ridging begins to rebuild over the mountain west as we head into the weekend, bringing back warmer and drier conditions.
1232 PM EDT Wed Sep 4 2024 High pressure over the region slides offshore this afternoon and remains northeast of the area through Thursday.
Dry conditions will be seen tonight and Thursday morning as a strong cold front approaches the area.
(This evening through Thursday night) A cold front moving southward across eastern Colorado and the Sand Hills of Nebraska will move into the Panhandles before sunrise and then it will be in the southeast Texas Panhandle by early afternoon. Low level moisture ahead of the front may still produce low clouds and fog for about the southern half of the Texas Panhandle before the cold front scours out the moisture. A few showers and thunderstorms will be possible with the cold front as it moves through. More showers and thunderstorms will be possible with the upper level short wave trough which will be following behind the front. Most of this activity will likely stay in eastern Colorado and eastern New Mexico as the flow will be northerly in association with short wave trough.
127 PM EDT Wed Sep 4 2024 High pressure from the north will provide cooler temperatures for the remainder of the week under decent north to northeasterly flow.
418 PM EDT Wed Sep 4 2024 High pressure will remain centered just south of the area tonight, then slowly exit to the east. Low pressure will approach from the south through the end of the week.
121 PM EDT Wed Sep 4 2024 High pressure will maintain cloud-free skies, pleasant afternoons, and chilly nights through Thursday.
- Rain chances return for the end of the week as a cold front moves through the region. The prevailing westerlies aloft are well to our north currently, but a trough is beginning to drop southeast into the CONUS out of south central Canada. At the surface, high pressure is positioned to our east, giving us a general light southerly flow.
We finally see more sunshine tomorrow, along with warmer temperatures, with afternoon highs in the mid and upper 80s.
122 PM EDT Wed Sep 4 2024 Dry through Thursday under high pressure.
Composite surface and water vapor analysis places broad anticyclonic flow across the North Atlantic, with the axis of the associated low-level ridge bisecting the Florida Peninsula. Meanwhile, a pesky stationary front remains draped north of this ridge, extending from the northern Gulf of Mexico eastward to the Florida-Georgia line. The ridge remains the dominant features locally for the Florida Keys, resulting in progressively freshening east to southeast breezes.
Outside of the typical areas that we see QPF during regime 2 (the west coast of FL), the Nature Coast is expected to see the highest rainfall amounts. This weekend, as a trough builds to the north and the ridge axis shifts to our south, our flow regime will shift southwesterly. Daily high temperatures will reach into the lower to middle 90s across the area with heat index values reaching between 100-105 each afternoon.
305 PM EDT Wed Sep 4 2024 High pressure will maintain cloud-free skies, pleasant afternoons, and chilly nights through Thursday.
205 PM CDT Wed Sep 4 2024 - Warmer today and Thursday before another cool spell comes by the weekend. Zooming in to northeastern Kansas, mostly clear skies, afternoon BL mixing and southerly winds have led to temperatures quickly warming into the lower 80s. Continued WAA ahead of this trough axis will help push temperatures back into the upper 80s across northeastern Kansas tomorrow afternoon with a brief surge of moisture. By the afternoon the trough axis will begin to slide through the area with a cold front trailing a bit behind. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will become possible along the pre-frontal trough and trailing frontal boundary through the evening hours.
316 PM CDT Wed Sep 4 2024 - A cold front will bring low rain chances (25 to 35 percent) tonight into Thursday.
1116 AM EDT Wed Sep 4 2024 High pressure will maintain cloud-free skies, pleasant afternoons, and chilly nights through Thursday.
1039 AM MDT Wed Sep 4 2024 - Scattered showers and thunderstorms today - More seasonable temperatures expected to finish out the week Scattered, light showers are developing across eastern WY into western SD ahead of approaching upper level trough. These showers should push eastward and increase in coverage as the upper level trough approaches, while not much lightning is expected with this shower activity - some of these showers may cause gusty winds. Trough exits the region by late tonight while ridge rebuilds to our west. Medium range deterministic models in consensus of upper ridge building into the western US by this weekend with a gradual return to warmer temperatures through this weekend.
239 PM CDT Wed Sep 4 2024 - Above average temperatures will persist through Thursday until a cold front cools temperatures to below average over the weekend.
234 PM CDT Wed Sep 4 2024 - Following a warm day Thursday, a cold frontal passage Thursday night will bring scattered showers and low thunderstorm chances (20%).
914 PM EDT Wed Sep 4 2024 High pressure will remain centered just south of the area tonight, then slowly exit to the east. Low pressure will approach from the south through the end of the week.
740 PM EDT Wed Sep 4 2024 Dry through Thursday under high pressure.
615 PM CDT Wed Sep 4 2024 - Above average temperatures will persist through Thursday until a cold front cools temperatures to below average over the weekend.
540 PM CDT Wed Sep 4 2024 - Warmer today and Thursday before another cool spell comes by the weekend. Zooming in to northeastern Kansas, mostly clear skies, afternoon BL mixing and southerly winds have led to temperatures quickly warming into the lower 80s. Continued WAA ahead of this trough axis will help push temperatures back into the upper 80s across northeastern Kansas tomorrow afternoon with a brief surge of moisture. By the afternoon the trough axis will begin to slide through the area with a cold front trailing a bit behind. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will become possible along the pre-frontal trough and trailing frontal boundary through the evening hours.
- Temperatures remain few degrees warmer than normal throughout the week, even while trending slightly cooler in some areas. Aside from precipitation chances tomorrow, smoke aloft is expected to move over the forecast area and my result in hazy skies at times, especially across eastern Utah where the concentration of smoke is modeled to be the highest locally. High pressure will remain anchored over the Rockies late this week into early with models a but unsure of when the next strong trough arrives to push it eastward. The center of this ridge will be near the 4 Corners which will be sloshing around through this period as waves through the stronger flow to the North. There will be some mositure entrained into the ridge but overall PWAT looks to remain near to below normal until a bigger pattern change occurs.
528 PM CDT Wed Sep 4 2024 - A cold front will bring low rain chances (25 to 35 percent) tonight into Thursday.
913 PM CDT Wed Sep 4 2024 - Showers and storms (40 to 60 percent chance) are expected Thursday afternoon and evening as a cold front moves through. - Cooler temperatures likely for the weekend, with a few lingering showers as low pressure exits.
632 PM CDT Wed Sep 4 2024 - Following a warm day Thursday, a cold frontal passage Thursday night will bring scattered showers and low thunderstorm chances (20%).
1012 PM EDT Wed Sep 4 2024 High pressure from the north will provide cooler temperatures for the remainder of the week under northerly flow.
Daytime highs Thursday will be in the low 80s to low 90s with overnight lows in the upper 30s to upper 40s.
614 PM EDT Wed Sep 4 2024 High pressure will remain centered just south of the area tonight, then slowly exit to the east. Low pressure will approach from the south through the end of the week.
While the Lower Keys saw some rain most totals were under a quarter of an inch if that. Temperatures currently in the mid to upper 80s will gradually come down into the lower to mid 80s.
639 PM CDT Wed Sep 4 2024 (This evening through Thursday night) A cold front moving southward across eastern Colorado and the Sand Hills of Nebraska will move into the Panhandles before sunrise and then it will be in the southeast Texas Panhandle by early afternoon. Low level moisture ahead of the front may still produce low clouds and fog for about the southern half of the Texas Panhandle before the cold front scours out the moisture. A few showers and thunderstorms will be possible with the cold front as it moves through. More showers and thunderstorms will be possible with the upper level short wave trough which will be following behind the front. Most of this activity will likely stay in eastern Colorado and eastern New Mexico as the flow will be northerly in association with short wave trough.
Current temps have fallen mainly into the upper 70s/lower 80s and with dew pts in the lower/mid 60s, lows into early Thu look to fall predom into the mid 60s/near 70F, despite the mid/high clouds.
810 PM EDT Wed Sep 4 2024 Cool high pressure will extend southward through central North Carolina through Thursday night, as it pushes slowly eastward off the Northeast coast.
- Only limited shower and thunderstorm activity is expected now with the cold front passage Thursday afternoon and Thursday night.
608 PM MDT Wed Sep 4 2024 With the cold front nearing our doorsteps of the northern edge of Rosebud County as of 6 PM, it's timing seems faster than most guidance. Vertz An upper level trough is progressing to the S and E of the region this afternoon. Behind it, a backdoor front will pass through the area this evening, bringing cooler temperatures through Thursday. Upper level ridging begins to rebuild over the mountain west as we head into the weekend, bringing back warmer and drier conditions.
Southeast flow around the high will be in place across Southwest Lower Michigan, with southerly winds just off the surface of 20-25 knots. - Risk for Thunderstorms Thu Night into Fri A stronger cold front pushes eastward through the region during this timeframe. As a result we will continue the high POPs for the passage of the front.
725 PM EDT Wed Sep 4 2024 Cool high pressure will extend southward through central North Carolina through Thursday night, as it pushes slowly eastward off the Northeast coast.
Smoke, combined with warm temperatures, will persist through Thursday as the upper-level ridge shifts across the area. By Thursday night, the smoke will follow the general clockwise circulation around the high- pressure system, bringing more easterly winds.
This will result in cooler temperatures today under NW flow aloft. Upper level ridging begins to rebuild over the mountain west as we head into the weekend, bringing back warmer and drier conditions. Wildfire smoke concentrations will be relatively low across our CWA today, but as the ridge builds over the area Friday westerly winds may bring some elevated concentrations back to our western zones (Park County and vicinity) making for hazy skies as we head into the weekend. BT Upper level ridging will keep temperatures 10 to 15 degrees above average, with highs in upper 80s to mid 90s, and mostly dry conditions through the extended.
350 AM EDT Thu Sep 5 2024 High pressure will bring dry conditions through Friday.
(Today through Friday) An expansive mid to upper level ridge will remain parked over the Florida Peninsula today, with heat concerns being the primary story. The subsidence from the ridge and lower moisture content will support for reduced convection compared to recent days, but there will still be activity around. Rinse and repeat conditions on Friday as the only changes to the setup are a slightly drier airmass, and the ridge starting to weaken as troughing dives across the Eastern US. Heat will be a concern across the area today, with high temperatures reaching the low to mid 90s, and peak heat index values ranging from 106-112 degrees.