Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
656 AM EST Sat Jan 6 2024 Low pressure will move northeast through the mid and upper Ohio Valley today.
650 AM EST Sat Jan 6 2024 Aviation - Periods of light snow today Weak low pressure is moving through the Great Lakes with a couple of pieces of energy ejecting out of the upper trough over the mid MS Valley. We'll see general troughiness through Sunday as the system moves through. The ECMWF ensembles and Canadian ensembles produce the lowest totals, while the GFS ensembles produce the most.
Cooler temperatures are expected overnight tonight with lows around 50 along the Nature Coast and temperatures bottoming out in the lower 60s in SWFL. Cooler and drier conditions are expected on Sunday. Highs will once again be below average with temperatures topping out in the lower 60s to the north and the upper 60s further south. Ahead of the next system, a warm front will lift across the area leading to temperatures in the 70s and 80s with dewpoints rebounding back into the 60s and 70s.
1245 PM EST Sat Jan 6 2024 Low pressure will move northeast through the mid and upper Ohio Valley today.
1114 AM CST Sat Jan 6 2024 (Rest of Today) Latest satellite and radar imagery shows the low pressure system that brought us rain overnight is now located to our east across Eastern Georgia.
Within the Valley, there are a few gusts in the lower 20 knot range, which may cause some minor drifting across roads in open country (no visibility restrictions though). The precipitation is mostly light snow, but every now and again getting reports of -fzra for any sites that temporally lose ice nuclei (boundary layer temperature still warmer than -10C). Broad synoptic lift should continue to bring light snow across the region into this morning, before the northern branch trough axis shifts east and snow taper off from west to east.
A strong cold front is moving southeastward across central WA and OR this morning. Snow will increase over the mountains this morning with shadowing in the lower valleys due to breezy south-southeast surface winds. By afternoon, light snow will fall across most areas ahead of the cold front as the lower levels moisten up. High resolution models are showing brief moderate to heavy snow along the cold front with visilities below 1/4 mile this afternoon and evening as the front passes through. Breezy northwest winds will follow the cold frontal passage this evening with precipitation winding down by midnight. A cold front late this afternoon may bring a period of heavy snow showers and gusty winds locally reducing visibilities to 1/4SM. Scattered MVFR snow showers, mainly over the higher terrain.
S/SW flow will turn NW this evening with the passage of the cold front. In this low cape/high shear environment, some isolated strong wind gusts and brief tornadoes are possible. Cooler temperatures are expected overnight tonight with lows around 50 along the Nature Coast with temperatures bottoming out in the lower 60s in SWFL.
One of the overnight concerns will be the combination of clear skies and near freezing temperatures combined with residual moisture from previous rainfall that could allow for frost to develop across much of the region. Additionally, any pockets of patchy ground fog that develop could transition into freezing fog, notably across much of Deep East Texas.
A somewhat quiet start to the day for the Florida Keys and yet a cold front is inching its way towards the area with a squall line out ahead of it. Breezes will decrease through this afternoon in advance of the approaching cold front. Out ahead of the approaching cold front is a squall line of showers and thunderstorms. Visible satellite shows some clearing on the back end of this deck over the Lower Keys, so VFR conditions should prevail through the afternoon.
High temperatures will remain on the cool side, with highs ranging from the mid 40s in the north to the low to mid 50s in the south. Temperatures will top out cooler than normal this afternoon and bottom out slightly warmer than normal tonight.
Temperatures will remain chilly today, with highs in the low 40s in the north and mid to upper 40s in the south.
Up to an additional half inch is expected with a second round of light snow ahead of a cold front through late tonight.
Elsewhere, snowfall is in the 1-4" range with locally higher amounts on the highest peaks and ridges.
(This evening through Sunday) Upper level ridging will briefly move over West Texas tonight which will result in clearing skies and cooler temperatures compared to last night with forecast lows in the 20s for most locations. Tomorrow, an approaching upper level low will lead to lee cyclogenesis in eastern Colorado and breezy southerly winds of 15-25 mph and warmer temperatures with highs ranging from the upper-40s to near 60 degrees. Chances of precipitation will be low but mid/upper level clouds will begin to fill in as moisture and lift associated with the upper level low get closer.
(Rest of Today) Latest satellite and radar imagery shows the low pressure system that brought us rain overnight is now located to our east across Eastern Georgia.
Lows tonight range from the mid 30s well inland to the lower 40s at the coast.
520 PM CST Sat Jan 6 2024 (This evening through Sunday) Upper level ridging will briefly move over West Texas tonight which will result in clearing skies and cooler temperatures compared to last night with forecast lows in the 20s for most locations. Tomorrow, an approaching upper level low will lead to lee cyclogenesis in eastern Colorado and breezy southerly winds of 15-25 mph and warmer temperatures with highs ranging from the upper-40s to near 60 degrees. Chances of precipitation will be low but mid/upper level clouds will begin to fill in as moisture and lift associated with the upper level low get closer.
With the northeast expansion of a low-level thermal ridge into the Southern Plains, temperatures are forecast to be in the 50s deg F (slightly above average).
This is due to a mid-level trough nearing the Tennessee River Valley as of 845 PM. Adjusted PoPs to account for the slow moving speed of the trough.
404 PM CST Sat Jan 6 2024 Tonight and Sunday: Upper troughing prevails across the region today with widespread stratus clouds over most of Mississippi. The upper trough will move east out of the region on Sunday and surface and upper ridging will begin to build across the area. Highs on Sunday will be in the low to mid 50s.
High pressure quickly builds aloft Sunday morning, which should quickly quench shower activity.
605 PM CST Sat Jan 6 2024 Tonight and Sunday: Upper troughing prevails across the region today with widespread stratus clouds over most of Mississippi. The upper trough will move east out of the region on Sunday and surface and upper ridging will begin to build across the area. Highs on Sunday will be in the low to mid 50s.
An upper level trough digging into the Pacific Northwest tonight into Sunday morning will bring widespread light snowfall to much of western Montana and north central Idaho with many locations expected to see an inch or two of snowfall.
The 18Z balloon launch we did showed evidence of some additional moisture in the lowest levels while remaining somewhat dry in the mid levels. However, the clouds did scour out, allowing for warmer temperatures and with dew points still in the lower to mid 70s, an increase in instability. A cold front is trailing the squall line but at a much slower speed and will not arrive into the Florida Keys until late Sunday morning and early afternoon.
From synopsis, Breezes will shift rapidly around the compass during the next five days across the Keys coastal waters, as a series of low pressure systems and associated fronts slide east through the Gulf of Mexico.
Given the recent trends and potential for freezing drizzle, we've issued a Special Weather Statement to address localized travel concerns. The main concerns will occur on untreated secondary roads, bridges, overpasses and intersections. - Lingering light snow and freezing drizzle may result in localized travel concerns overnight.
Temperatures have already fallen into the 30s in most locations where skies have cleared, and a chilly night is expected as much as of the area drops to near or below freezing tonight. One of the overnight concerns will be the combination of clear skies and near freezing temperatures combined with residual moisture from previous rainfall that could allow for frost to develop across much of the region. Additionally, any pockets of patchy ground fog that develop could transition into freezing fog, notably across much of Deep East Texas.
1117 PM CST Sat Jan 6 2024 Tonight and Sunday: Upper troughing prevails across the region today with widespread stratus clouds over most of Mississippi. The upper trough will move east out of the region on Sunday and surface and upper ridging will begin to build across the area. Highs on Sunday will be in the low to mid 50s.
(Rest of tonight) A dense stratus deck will persist through the overnight hours, keeping temperatures on the warmer side of lows for early January. An upper trough axis will swing through the region overnight, and we should start to see a gradual thinning in cloud cover from west to east tomorrow morning as high pressure moves into the area.
1100 PM CST Sat Jan 6 2024 (Rest of tonight) A dense stratus deck will persist through the overnight hours, keeping temperatures on the warmer side of lows for early January. An upper trough axis will swing through the region overnight, and we should start to see a gradual thinning in cloud cover from west to east tomorrow morning as high pressure moves into the area.
305 AM EST Sun Jan 7 2024 Strong low pressure off the Northeast and New England coast will continue to move away from North Carolina today.
1125 PM CST Sat Jan 6 2024 (This evening through Sunday) Upper level ridging will briefly move over West Texas tonight which will result in clearing skies and cooler temperatures compared to last night with forecast lows in the 20s for most locations. Tomorrow, an approaching upper level low will lead to lee cyclogenesis in eastern Colorado and breezy southerly winds of 15-25 mph and warmer temperatures with highs ranging from the upper-40s to near 60 degrees. Chances of precipitation will be low but mid/upper level clouds will begin to fill in as moisture and lift associated with the upper level low get closer.
However, gusty winds have not yet materialized from Baker City southeast into the Lower Treasure Valley.
Temps will be cold enough for a few flurries along the Highland Rim and Plateau. Highs will be mostly in the low to mid 40s, but staying in the 30s for the Plateau. Guidance is not showing much, but the pattern looks favorable, and the fog / freezing fog may become widespread on the Plateau depending on how much skies clear out. Monday will be dry for most of the day with warmer temperatures, partly sunny skies, and increasing south winds.
By 12z Mon, upper low will be situated over far northeast NM and will be over the TX Panhandle by 18z Mon. Confidence remains high that the highest snow totals with this system will be where low levels are cold enough for most of the warm advection precip to be snow and close to where the good frontogenesis sets up.
Afternoon temperatures will struggle to warm above the mid 50s (upper 30s to mid 40s in the higher elevations).
Surface temperatures are currently around freezing which means there may be some slick spots on roads, especially bridges, this morning. Cloudy, but dry, conditions are expected tonight and Monday with highs in the mid 30s as we briefing transition to weak ridging ahead of the next winter storm.
Strong upper low will be developing in the the 4 corners this evening will approach the Texas Panhandle Monday morning. Temperatures will be warmer with highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s.
Increasing lift late tonight associated with the storm system as it moves into New Mexico combined with the low- level moisture increase will lead to development of widespread rain across western Oklahoma after midnight.
High pressure will pass across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley tonight into Monday. A potent low pressure system is then forecast to move through Monday night into midweek, bringing rain, snow, and wind. Aforementioned ridge axis will move east. Highs will range from the mid 30s north to the lower 40s south.
The radar imagery is starting to show enhancement between Eureka and Kalispell which may be the start of the weak arctic cold front pushing southwestwards. By this afternoon the upper level trough will shift eastwards with time and move over northwest Montana.
WV imagery indicates weak ridging aloft transitioning east through the Colorado Rockies. Near the surface, lee side troughing is slowly strengthening in eastern Colorado. Tranquil conditions will persist today into tonight as the SREF indicates weak ridging aloft pushing east across the Central Plains while much drier air in the lower/mid levels continues to dominate the high plains of western Kansas. An ongoing warming trend continues today as lee side troughing strengthens in eastern Colorado, enhancing a prevailing southerly flow across western Kansas and drawing warmer air into the area, nudging H85 temperatures up well above 0C.
Water vapor sat imagery shows deep upper low over the intermountain west early this morning. The highlands are already painted with a Winter Weather Advisory, which would also encompass higher wind threat and blowing snow potential across the Southern Hills/Albion Mountain area.
A few showers will continue to be possible mainly across the southern half of the area through mid-morning, then clearing with cooler and drier high pressure building into the north for this afternoon and tonight. The frontal boundary lifts north as a warm front over the area Monday and Monday night, with plenty of upper instability streaming over the area to allow for showers and a few thunderstorms mainly across the northern half of the area. Winds will also be increasing as the pressure gradient tightens between high pressure off the NE coast and a potent low pressure system moving across the central plains/mid-Mississippi Valley regions.
By 12z Mon, upper low will be situated over far northeast NM and will be over the TX Panhandle by 18z Mon. Confidence remains high that the highest snow totals with this system will be where low levels are cold enough for most of the warm advection precip to be snow and close to where the good frontogenesis sets up. Surface winds will be rather gusty but the directional change in the low levels will meet the criteria for LLWS for several hours tomorrow morning.
234 AM MST Sun Jan 7 2024 MORNING DISCUSSION: Synoptic Setup: A large area of cold air has developed over central Canada with two trough dropping south out of it. This trough will scoop out remaining warm air and fog this morning for northeast Montana. Farther west, a large warm ridge runs up the North American coast through Alaska and into the Arctic Ocean. An equally large trough drops south from the Bering Sea to south of the Aleutians. Today into tonight: Fog across the area with stagnant air will begin to get scooped out as a large trough moves through the area this afternoon.
High pressure will pass across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley tonight into Monday. A potent low pressure system is then forecast to move through Monday night into midweek, bringing rain, snow, and wind. Ptype will likely remain mainly snow across northern portions of our area today as temperatures will only moderate slightly with highs in the low to mid 30s. Road temperatures across our north are generally near of just above freezing. While web cams across the north are showing mainly wet roads, a few slick spots will remain possible this morning, especially on bridges and overpasses. Aforementioned ridge axis will move east. Highs will range from the mid 30s north to the lower 40s south.
As things clear, the cold air behind the system will have Valley morning temps near or below freezing for today and tomorrow. Probabilities show a 40-85% chance of lows below freezing today and a 40-90% chance tomorrow.
Mild and sticky conditions prevail along the Florida Keys on this early Sunday morning, with temperatures hovering in the lower 70s at most locations, dewpoints near 70, and winds on land calm or light/variable. Surface analysis depicts a cold front extending from the western Atlantic across central Florida and the SE Gulf of Mexico. We expect only slightly cooler and drier air behind this front, with just a few degrees of cooling for tonight and Monday returning temps to near normal.
Temperatures will remain cooler this afternoon and overnight behind the front with highs ranging from the lower to upper 60s and overnight lows falling into the 40s and lower 50s. But look for warming temperatures tomorrow as a warm front lifts across the area ahead of our next big system.
The highest chances of seeing 2 inches or more of snow (30 to 50 percent chance) will be generally north of Highway 2 and along and northeast of Highway 52.
Coverage will gradually taper off this afternoon as the upper level low shifts east. Surface temperatures are currently around freezing which means there may be some slick spots on roads, especially bridges, this morning. Cloudy, but dry, conditions are expected tonight and Monday with highs in the mid 30s as we briefing transition to weak ridging ahead of the next winter storm.
Surface analysis shows the cold front that passed through east central Florida last night has stalled across South Florida this morning. Locally, expect mostly dry conditions today as high pressure builds overhead and the lingering moisture from the boundary gets pushed south of the area by this afternoon. These showers should diminish by this afternoon as building high pressure overhead is forecast to push these boundaries further south of the area.
Cool start to this morning with lows in the lower to middle 30s areawide with some readings holding closer to 40 over the E/NE due to some low clouds lingering.
This is due to a swiftly moving and robustly-intense trough with an attendant frontal boundary that will exit the Rocky Mountains, entering the Great Plains overnight tonight.
1119 AM CST Sun Jan 7 2024 Cool start to this morning with lows in the lower to middle 30s areawide with some readings holding closer to 40 over the E/NE due to some low clouds lingering.
Temperatures will remain cooler overnight behind the front with highs ranging from the lower to upper 60s and overnight lows falling into the 40s and lower 50s. But look for warming temperatures tomorrow as a warm front lifts across the area ahead of our next big system. A deep trough will dig into the Central U.
Today's cold front passage was but one of three fronts that will potentially visit the Florida Keys over the next 7 days.
Some patchy fog expected to form overnight before a warm front arrives on Monday afternoon.
Low level wind fields become strong overnight and strong gusts are likely within the highest terrain of far SE OK into far NW AR.
While amounts across most of Natrona County are expected to remain under three inches, a Winter Weather Advisory may be needed there to cover for the higher accumulation potential in Casper, as well as the blowing snow potential elsewhere.
The exception will the the lower Colorado River Valley where gusty winds up to 45 mph linger through Monday afternoon. With the potential of gusts up to 45 mph continuing in the lower CRV decided to extend the Wind Advisory through 3 pm PST/4pm MST Monday. As the winds start to diminish outside of the lower CRV late tonight temperatures will get cold across southern Mohave County the next two morning.
Brief ridging sweeps through Monday, but skies will quickly cloud back up as the next system pushes ashore along the PacNW.
(Tonight) Earlier today, an eastward push of drier air in the lower levels helped to thin post frontal stratus that hung tough over the area yesterday.
759 PM EST Sun Jan 7 2024 Weak high pressure continues over the region with a quiet overnight period expected.
505 PM CST Sun Jan 7 2024 (Tonight) Earlier today, an eastward push of drier air in the lower levels helped to thin post frontal stratus that hung tough over the area yesterday.
A deep trough of low pressure over the western U. Once the low arrives in British Columbia overnight on Monday, it will be pushing a well-formed upper level cold front ahead of it.
Behind the exiting precipitation, a Pacific cold front will move across the forecast area. Still, the set up with a deepening, strong closed low moving across the northern Texas Panhandle suggests a good chance for 40 mph sustained and/or 60 mph gusts and will hoist a High Wind Watch as a result. A shift northward of the low would suggest possibly trimming that snow chance in the forecast, but the deepening nature of the low suggests a good chance of lift and moisture working well southward into the southwestern quadrant of the system.
Currently, clear skies are residing through the area, however, cloud cover is forecast to gradually increase overnight as high pressure moves eastward.
(This evening through Monday) Afternoon water vapor imagery shows the potent upper level low digging southward into Arizona. The low is forecast to pivot eastward across New Mexico and the Texas Panhandle tonight and into Monday. The 850mb jet will crank up overnight as the upper level trough approaches. Also, high res model guidance including the HRRR and the RAP continues to develop a line of elevated convection along a pre-frontal trough out to our west, with this line pushing eastward across the Big Country and Concho Valley between 09-12Z.
We are seeing snow continuing as well across the higher elevations of the southern and southeast highlands.
A cold front with northwest winds will move through during the evening and should keep winds mixed and strong until after midnight, but should decrease below wind advisory criteria by morning. Lows are expected at or near the freezing mark Tuesday morning.
Probabilities of exceeding 3 inches from both NBM and the HREF ensemble are down to around 50 percent for areas that are highlighted in the advisory, and exceeding 5 inches is down to a few spots peaking at about 20 percent (with a small area of 40 percent along the eastern ridge of the Sisseton hills).
For Monday and Tuesday, weak ridging and northwest flow aloft will keep the days fair and cool, while the nights remain clear and cold with areas of frost and freeze conditions for wind-sheltered inland areas. For those residing in the southern portion of the Inland Empire (south of Hemet to Lake Elsinore), where freezing conditions are expected, consider going a step further and wrap, drain, or drip outdoor pipes to prevent them from bursting or freezing.
1118 PM CST Sun Jan 7 2024 - Light snow from a large mesocyclone is expected Monday into Tuesday. Slowly breaking stratus is giving some in northeastern Minnesota a peek at the sun this afternoon as the system from yesterday moves off to the east and a ridge briefly moves over us. A deepening upper level trough will help to form a large mesocyclone across the Southern Plains, and its associated inverted trough will affect the Upper Midwest.
The exception will the the lower Colorado River Valley where gusty winds up to 45 mph linger through Monday afternoon. It continues to be quite gusty this evening and with much cooler temperatures, it feels downright chilly. MOS guidance has winds decreasing before sunrise which could allow temperatures to drop quickly however if they stay elevated, it may keep temperatures a little warmer.
825 PM MST Sun Jan 7 2024 Evening Update: A brief change in the grids is the lowered minimum temperatures in Northern Phillips and Northwest Valley County and patchy freezing fog added.
942 PM CST Sun Jan 7 2024 - Light snow from a large mesocyclone is expected Monday into Tuesday. Slowly breaking stratus is giving some in northeastern Minnesota a peek at the sun this afternoon as the system from yesterday moves off to the east and a ridge briefly moves over us. A deepening upper level trough will help to form a large mesocyclone across the Southern Plains, and its associated inverted trough will affect the Upper Midwest.