Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Locally, northwest flow aloft persists with a broad upper-level low pressure trough over central Canada drawing arctic air southward toward our region.
956 PM CST Tue Dec 31 2024 Updated at 956 PM CST Tue Dec 31 2024 - Freezing fog possible on the Caprock late tonight and Wednesday morning.
Ensuing low-level southerly return flow will foster warmer temperatures.
Temperatures are mostly hovering in the lower to mid 70s, although the clear skies and calm winds have allowed the sheltered interior island spot of North Big Pine to radiate down to 68F. Dewpoints remain rather sticky for the end of the December, mostly in the lower 70s. Surface analysis depicts a weak pre-frontal trough across South Florida and the extreme SE Gulf, with a weak cold front extending across the Southeastern states into the northern Gulf. Temps will drift down to around 70 degrees by morning, as a slightly cooler and drier airmass begins to filter into our area on developing light NNW breezes. From the synopsis, a weak cold front is expected to ease through the Keys waters late tonight and Wednesday. A reinforcing cold front is expected heading into this weekend.
The freezing line will briefly drop into our far northern counties and we should see a decent frost just about anywhere along and north of I-20 with more isolated coverage south in any well sheltered areas. Our winds will slack this evening and resume from the NE by mid morning, but speeds will keep below 10 mph unlike today's mildly gusty cold frontal passage with just a bit more passing cirrus to greet 2025's first day.
Blended in some NBM90 to the lows tonight to account for the warmer low potential with cloud cover and a light northwest breeze being maintained. That said, still have low confidence on the overnight low forecast, and there could be a large range from the low/mid teens to around 20 degrees depending on if any clearing develops within the stratus field, which models do try to indicate.
Elevated fire weather conditions have developed this afternoon in the wake of a passing cold front. However, moisture will begin to return to the area by Wednesday morning as the 850 mb flow veers to the south while a coastal trough develops near Brownsville. Moisture will further increase Wednesday into Wednesday night as the coastal trough transitions over the area and overrunning occurs. This will result in low to medium (20-40%) rain chances over the southern half of the CWA by Wednesday night, while chances will be around 30-60% over the Gulf waters where the higher moisture will reside. Lows tonight will range from the lower 40s across the northern counties to the upper 50s along the coast. Highs on Wednesday will struggle to get out of the 60s, but lows Wednesday night will be warmer and generally in the 50s.
Warming back above normal tomorrow and staying warmer into the weekend.
(Today) Lingering cloud cover will gradually diminish/scatter heading more into the afternoon hrs this New Year's Day, as a large dome of high pressure out of the Plains states begins to build into much of the region. With cooler air continuing to filter into the mid TN Valley out of the SW, temps later today will struggle to surpass the mid/upper 40s for most spots.
1039 PM CST Tue Dec 31 2024 - Comparatively much cooler but near normal temperatures today. Expect a chilly night, with most locations falling below freezing.
1216 AM EST Wed Jan 1 2025 A cold front will quickly move through the region this evening, followed by high pressure through the weekend. The cold front will push offshore very shortly with cooler, drier air filtering in behind it.
111 AM EST Wed Jan 1 2025 Drier and cooler high pressure begins to build into the region to start off the new year.
Dry, cold conditions return behind the system's cold front. A dry and cloud-free cold front is currently sliding offshore early this morning, allowing WSW winds to veer to the WNW, and still gusting at times. Noticeably cooler daytime temps today however compared to yesterday, with highs only in the mid/upr 50s due to post-frontal CAA. Continued clear skies and diminishing winds as the pressure gradient slackens tonight will lead to low temps around freezing.
Surface observations are showing a mix of 30's and 40's, with most trending about 5-10 deg F cooler when compared to this time yesterday. Plan is for afternoon highs to be cooler than yesterday, with temperatures in the 50's under plenty of sunshine to help recover from the 30's and 40's later this morning. The cooler temperatures will continue into the overnight once again as lows into Thursday AM will sit in the low and mid 30's. Freezing line will once again be mostly confined to the I-30 corridor, with the exception being areas of calm winds across the eastern zones under clear skies and enhanced radiational cooling. Transition to southerlies are expected overnight Wednesday into Thursday so expect highs to be a few degrees warmer, but still near average for this time of the year.
605 AM EST Wed Jan 1 2025 High pressure will prevail through the weekend.
(Now through Thursday Night) Zonal flow aloft continues through Thursday as an upper-level longwave trough begins to evolve over the eastern US. At the surface, high pressure will remain in control through the period. With the high currently over the southern Plains, winds will remain out of the north today. Winds become light and variable on Thursday as the high moves overhead. For the most part, dry conditions will prevail through the period due to a lack of deep moisture, although a brief, isolated shower cannot be ruled out Thursday night near the coast as the trough passes overhead. Lows tonight will range from the low 30s inland to the low 40s along the coast.
RAP/water vapor imagery & evening upper air analysis this morning indicate mean longwave troughing pattern over the CONUS, with zonal flow across the southern Plains, Gulf Coast to Southeast states. /DC/ SFC ridging and troughing aloft will persist through much of the period.
538 AM CST Wed Jan 1 2025 Cooler temperatures today, but warmer conditions are approaching for the rest of this week. (Today through Thursday night) Zonal flow aloft continues in the short term period, but the upper level ridge will return to the southwestern CONUS in the days to come. Near the surface, 850 mb temperatures will stay below freezing across the combined Panhandles today.
- Dry cold front moves through the area Thursday into Thursday night.
647 AM EST Wed Jan 1 2025 - Lake effect snow showers increase today - Surge of colder air late Thursday brings more snow - Lake effect snow showers increase today A negatively tilted upper level trough extending from a large upper level low over central Canada will extend across Michigan today. That trough will continue to bring colder air over the region. That trough will bring temperatures at 850mb around -12C. The large upper level low that brought snow to the Lansing area on Wednesday will move through the Mid Atlantic and New England today into tonight. That low will flatten the trough and ending the instability generating the lake effect.
Cooler temperatures today, but warmer conditions are approaching for the rest of this week. (Today through Thursday night) Zonal flow aloft continues in the short term period, but the upper level ridge will return to the southwestern CONUS in the days to come. Near the surface, 850 mb temperatures will stay below freezing across the combined Panhandles today.
918 AM EST Wed Jan 1 2025 High pressure will prevail through the weekend.
405 AM EST Wed Jan 1 2025 Clouds and a few snow showers will linger today as low pressure departs off to the east. High pressure will build across the area with drier conditions Thursday.
348 AM CST Wed Jan 1 2025 Forecast discussion for routine morning forecast issuance - Light snow and flurries, along with some patchy freezing drizzle, is expected this morning with little to no accumulation.
Warming back above normal tomorrow and staying warmer into the weekend. Main change is lower high temperatures today failing to rise much above the lower 50s from SE NM plains into northern Permian Basin. Chilly temperatures are still expected across SE NM with lows in the 20s, but we will likely stay above freezing further east. Westerly, downslope flow returns Thursday and so do the warmer temperatures.
This has resulted in a slack wind field becoming defined out of the west to northwest and pushing a weak cold front towards our area. Unseasonably warm and humid conditions continue for the time being with temperatures in the lower 70s and very close to the dew point. The cold front will limp through the Keys today and tonight.
507 AM CST Wed Jan 1 2025 - A fast moving embedded trough may bring very light snow to far northeast Kansas counties Thursday morning.
A dry and cloud-free cold front is currently sliding offshore early this morning, allowing WSW winds to veer to the WNW, and still gusting at times. Noticeably cooler daytime temps today however compared to yesterday, with highs only in the mid/upr 50s due to post-frontal CAA. Continued clear skies and diminishing winds as the pressure gradient slackens tonight will lead to low temps around freezing.
- Comparatively much cooler but near normal temperatures today. Initially quasi-zonal flow aloft over our area will become west- northwest, as an upper ridge builds to some extent from the Baja region north along the U. A broad upper trough will encompass northern and northeastern parts of the CONUS. Highs today will be about 4-6 degrees cooler than yesterday, ranging from the lower 50s in the Big Country, to the upper 50s/near 60 along and south of the I-10 corridor. There is some possibility for patchy low cloud development in the Big Country, along a low probability of patchy fog or freezing fog. Overnight lows will be in the lower to mid 30s, with the colder readings expected in favored low-lying areas.
258 AM PST Wed Jan 1 2025 Fair and warmer weather is forecast to begin the year, with temperatures rising today and Thursday under higher pressure and weak offshore flow.
623 AM EST Wed Jan 1 2025 Clouds and a few snow showers will linger today as low pressure departs off to the east. High pressure will build across the area with drier conditions Thursday.
This uncertainty arises because the trough is expected to open into the northwesterly flow aloft, stretching the vorticity and reducing potential lift. Weak high pressure is expected to build over the region tonight.
Trough and associated cold front was entering western portions of the forecast area. Smaller flake size will reduce visibilities and given falling temperatures (now below freezing), roads are likely to have at least some accumulation on them as shown by INDOT webcams in the Mi City area. Low pressure near Pittsburgh sliding will ultimately give way to west-northwest flow resulting in multi-bands of lake effect snow today and into the coming night. Drying out by Thursday morning with crisp morning lows in the low- 20s; the coldest low temperature in about 10 days.
As ridging builds to our west, we will be left with zonal flow aloft for the first couple days of 2025. At the surface, high pressure builds into the region. Highs today and tomorrow will top out in the low to mid 50s. Below freezing temps are expected tonight with lows ranging from the mid 20s across our northern tier of counties to around 30 degrees further south.
907 AM EST Wed Jan 1 2025 Much drier and cooler air is beginning to filter in across the state this morning. The last lingering areas of fog across SWFL are lifting and the low clouds will lift as the frontal boundary sweeps through the region over the next hour. Light northerly winds and clears skies the rest of today into tonight will lead to dramatically cooler temperatures overnight.
541 AM CST Wed Jan 1 2025 Dry and cooler weather conditions will persist for the remainder of the week.
930 AM EST Wed Jan 1 2025 Clouds and a few snow showers will linger today as low pressure departs off to the east. High pressure will build across the area with drier conditions Thursday.
322 AM CST Wed Jan 1 2025 - A fast moving embedded trough may bring very light snow to far northeast Kansas counties Thursday morning.
500 AM CST Wed Jan 1 2025 (Today) Lingering cloud cover will gradually diminish/scatter heading more into the afternoon hrs this New Year's Day, as a large dome of high pressure out of the Plains states begins to build into much of the region. With cooler air continuing to filter into the mid TN Valley out of the SW, temps later today will struggle to surpass the mid/upper 40s for most spots.
Low pressure near Pittsburgh sliding will ultimately give way to west-northwest flow resulting in multi-bands of lake effect snow today and into the coming night. Drying out by Thursday morning with crisp morning lows in the low- 20s; the coldest low temperature in about 10 days.
619 AM EST Wed Jan 1 2025 (Today and tonight) A cold front moved through early this morning. Daytime highs will climb into the lower to middle 60s before dropping into the lower to middle 30s.
Warming back above normal tomorrow and staying warmer into the weekend. Chilly temperatures are still expected across SE NM with lows in the 20s, but we will likely stay above freezing further east. Westerly, downslope flow returns Thursday and so do the warmer temperatures.
617 AM EST Wed Jan 1 2025 Drier and cooler high pressure begins to build into the region to start off the new year.
Up here, dry high pressure up in Canada will keep the storm track suppressed to our south.
Meanwhile, the low stratus that was surging southwest off the Mainland made it briefly to the Lower Keys and has stalled across the southeast Gulf of Mexico this afternoon. The cold front previously analyzed near Lake Okeechobee this morning, is now beginning to enter our outer Gulf waters near T Tower. The high pressure driving this first front will quickly exit across the Atlantic and our winds will be fast to clock around to the northeast and even briefly east.
There is some uncertainty however for locations along/north of the Highway 82 corridor, where cold advection stratocumulus is becoming more prevalent and could hold temperatures down a bit. RAP/water vapor imagery & evening upper air analysis this morning indicate mean longwave troughing pattern over the CONUS, with zonal flow across the southern Plains, Gulf Coast to Southeast states. /DC/ SFC ridging and troughing aloft will persist through much of the period.
With the upper level trough and associated pockets of positive vorticity we could see an uptick this afternoon. With temperatures currently around freezing, expect some accumulations to occur, especially on overpasses. - Lake effect snow showers increase today A negatively tilted upper level trough extending from a large upper level low over central Canada will extend across Michigan today. That trough will continue to bring colder air over the region. That trough will bring temperatures at 850mb around -12C. The large upper level low that brought snow to the Lansing area on Wednesday will move through the Mid Atlantic and New England today into tonight. That low will flatten the trough and ending the instability generating the lake effect.
But by then temperatures will be above freezing at low elevations and the snow will either mix with or change to rain and roads should become wet.
1214 PM CST Wed Jan 1 2025 (Rest of Today) Yet another post-frontal trough axis moved southeast overnight and currently extends from central Ohio SW into central Kentucky and western Tennessee.
1147 AM EST Wed Jan 1 2025 Drier and cooler high pressure begins to build into the region to start off the new year.
Initially quasi-zonal flow aloft over our area will become west- northwest, as an upper ridge builds to some extent from the Baja region north along the U. A broad upper trough will encompass northern and northeastern parts of the CONUS. Highs today will be about 4-6 degrees cooler than yesterday, ranging from the lower 50s in the Big Country, to the upper 50s/near 60 along and south of the I-10 corridor. There is some possibility for patchy low cloud development in the Big Country, along with a low probability of patchy fog or freezing fog. Overnight lows will be in the lower to mid 30s, with the colder readings expected in favored low-lying areas.
(Rest of Today) Yet another post-frontal trough axis moved southeast overnight and currently extends from central Ohio SW into central Kentucky and western Tennessee.
- Quiet weather and warmer tomorrow. At the surface, an area of high pressure currently centered in Oklahoma will move east into the southeastern U. Morning lows will generally be a few degrees warmer. Highs on Thursday will also be 10 to 15 degrees warmer, mainly in the 60s. A cold front will approach our northern counties by late in the afternoon, but should not have a significant affect on our area until later in the evening.
As high pressure builds into the region behind the cold frontal boundary, much cooler and drier air filters in along with it.
1124 AM CST Wed Jan 1 2025 Cooler temperatures today, but warmer conditions are approaching for the rest of this week. (Today through Thursday night) Zonal flow aloft continues in the short term period, but the upper level ridge will return to the southwestern CONUS in the days to come. Near the surface, 850 mb temperatures will stay below freezing across the combined Panhandles today.
Expect temperatures to be very similar to yesterday, still running about 5-10 degrees warmer than average.
In the wake of the first front, associated with the larger trough, deep layer dry air will overspread the region and remain in place for the short term period. Expect lows in the low 60s down the east coast, and as low as the upper 40s across southwest Florida near the Lake.
320 PM EST Wed Jan 1 2025 - Bursts of Moderate to Heavy Snow, Falling Temperatures - Surge of Colder Air Thursday Night Brings More Snow - Bursts of Moderate to Heavy Snow, Falling Temperatures Within the upper level trough bursts of moderate to heavy snow continue to track across the area mainly along and south of a Muskegon to Ionia line. Snowfall rates around an inch per hour have been observed over the past two hours in Grand Rapids where the higher radar returns have tracked through. Temperatures will also be falling into the low 20s overnight causing any wet, untreated surfaces to freeze.
1258 PM EST Wed Jan 1 2025 Clouds and a few snow showers will linger today as low pressure departs off to the east. High pressure will build across the area with drier conditions Thursday.
1000 AM PST Wed Jan 1 2025 Fair and warmer weather will prevail today and Thursday under a ridge of high pressure and weak offshore flow.
(This afternoon through Thursday) Beautiful day to start the new year with air temps warming into the lower 50s now.
JLH (Now through Thursday) Canadian high pressure continues to build into the Deep South with only a few high clouds streaming across the area today. Low level cold air advection will continue behind a cold front that moved south into the Gulf of Mexico last night. Highs are currently forecast to range from the upper 50s over interior areas to the lower 60s along the coast. The cooler temperatures are being advected in by gusty northwest winds and this should continue through the afternoon.
135 PM EST Wed Jan 1 2025 Drier and cooler as high pressure begins to build into the region to start off the new year.
Happy New Year Florida Keys! We had some patchy fog across the outer and nearshore Gulf waters as well as portions of the Lower Keys this morning. Current satellite imagery shows this stratus deck approaching the Lower Keys at this moment. It would also appear that a previously advertised cold front is moving slower than previously thought and has still yet to sweep through the Keys. A cold front will press into Keys waters this afternoon. A reinforcing cold front is expected heading into this weekend.
Today's daytime high temps are trending about 2 degrees warmer, upper 20s inland to around 32 by the lakeshore. After bottoming out in the low to mid 20s this morning, temperatures are only expected to rise a couple of degrees through the day today, with highs generally in the mid to upper 20s.
Updated at 205 PM CST Wed Jan 1 2025 - Dry cold front moves through the area Thursday into Thursday night.
1243 PM EST Wed Jan 1 2025 High pressure will prevail through the weekend.
(Tonight through Thursday night) A coastal trough has led to an increase in cloud cover today.
Building high pressure will bring a cooling and drying trend through Thursday. Light winds associated with dry cold front will limit widespread radiational cooling overnight. The pattern aloft will feature troughiness in the east but of very low magnitude.
235 PM CST Wed Jan 1 2025 - Increasing confidence in impactful, possibly significant, winter precipitation this weekend in the form of freezing rain, sleet, and snow. Highs Thursday will be similar to today in the 40s with a cold front moving through the area during the afternoon and evening.
1122 AM CST Wed Jan 1 2025 - A fast moving embedded trough may bring very light snow to far northeast Kansas counties Thursday morning.
1112 AM CST Wed Jan 1 2025 Dry and cooler weather conditions will persist for the remainder of the week.
- Cooler temperatures today, but warmer conditions are approaching for the rest of this week. We'll see quite the Texas turnaround in temperatures tomorrow with significantly warmer and sunny conditions. Thanks to broad ridging setting up to our west and warming 850mb temps, afternoon highs will reach the 50s to even low 60s in spots beneath mostly sunny skies.
There is still little in the way of return flow ahead of our next cold front overnight tomorrow. So with the clouds, the generally warmer south will be shaded and once again and highs will end up right about average for the day's climate. As we head into tomorrow evening, the cold front will begin to make a push into our I-30 corridor with light N/NE wind.
605 PM CST Wed Jan 1 2025 - Increasing confidence in impactful, possibly significant, winter precipitation this weekend in the form of freezing rain, sleet, and snow. Highs Thursday will be similar to today in the 40s with a cold front moving through the area during the afternoon and evening.
532 PM CST Wed Jan 1 2025 (Tonight through Thursday night) A coastal trough has led to an increase in cloud cover today.
630 PM EST Wed Jan 1 2025 High pressure will prevail through the weekend.
Expect freezing low temperatures for much of the area tonight with highs Thursday rebounding well into the 50s to near 60 across southern portions of the area under mostly sunny skies.
621 PM EST Wed Jan 1 2025 - Bursts of Moderate to Heavy Snow, Falling Temperatures - Surge of Colder Air Thursday Night Brings More Snow - Bursts of Moderate to Heavy Snow, Falling Temperatures Within the upper level trough bursts of moderate to heavy snow continue to track across the area mainly along and south of a Muskegon to Ionia line. Snowfall rates around an inch per hour have been observed over the past two hours in Grand Rapids where the higher radar returns have tracked through. Temperatures will also be falling into the low 20s overnight causing any wet, untreated surfaces to freeze.
There, accumulations will range between a dusting and 2 inches, with the higher-end amounts favoring areas north of Interstate 74.
Weak moisture advection in advance of the front will allow for clouds to increase ahead of a reinforcing cold front. Temperatures should remain seasonal through the near term period with highs ranging from the upper 50s to lower 60s with lows tonight in the upper 20s to middle 30s, warming to the lower 30s over the interior to lower 40s along the coast on Thursday night.
808 PM EST Wed Jan 1 2025 Drier and cooler as high pressure begins to build into the region to start off the new year.