Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
The H5 ridge has moved to the east, opening up the more zonal flow across the state this morning. Areas downwind of mountain ranges will see temperatures into the 40s today, while the lower basins of the WInd River and Bighorn valleys will continue to see the cold pools stuck in place. Some moderation will finally occur with mixing, but getting above the freezing point will be a tough sell for most of the afternoon.
(Today through Monday) High pressure and dry conditions will continue today.
600 AM EST Sun Jan 21 2024 Arctic high pressure will build over our region today and tonight. This high will push east and offshore on Monday, starting a warming trend that will bring above normal temperatures later this week. Very cold arctic air will continue over the region today and tonight as the center of the 1040 mb high pressure builds overhead.
However, soundings do indicate this may turn into freezing precipitation due to the warm tongue of air over the still freezing air mass in place at the surface in the far east. Models are generating just some light snow again in the high country with this feature (25% chance of 1+ in. ), but not any precipitation over the lower elevations. This could result in some light precipitation or even just freezing mist in these areas this evening.
308 AM CST Sun Jan 21 2024 Today and Tonight: The core of an Arctic high pressure system was situated over the confluence of the Mississippi and Ohio Rivers early this morning. Just to our west, our next weather maker will be taking shape as an upper-level trough crosses the Southern Rockies.
- Ridge/valley temperature split again tonight, but not nearly as cold. - Returning to near normal temperatures on Monday, as high pressure moves off to the east and winds shift to south. Analysis and Discussion: A very cold morning in store to begin today, but we should see much warmer temperatures by this afternoon than we saw the previous couple of days. The consensus is for a large ridge of high pressure to remain in place over the region for the next couple of days. In fact, we should see a return to near normal temperatures on Monday, as high pressure moves off to the east and winds shift to the southeast and south across the area. We will see an increase in clouds on Monday as low pressure begins moving our way from the southwest, but it will remain dry until then.
400 AM MST Sun Jan 21 2024 - Warmer along and east of the mountains today, while periods of mainly light snow are expected along the Continental Divide.
- Chance for freezing fog and freezing drizzle late tonight and Monday morning in eastern areas.
525 AM EST Sun Jan 21 2024 High pressure will build in from the west today then move south of the area tonight into Monday.
630 AM EST Sun Jan 21 2024 Arctic high pressure will settle over the area this weekend.
833 AM EST Sun Jan 21 2024 Canadian high pressure will maintain very cold temperatures through Monday morning. As the high pushes offshore, much warmer and humid air will overspread the Carolinas through the rest of the work week. Things are finally starting to warm up a bit this morning but we're not expecting to get above freezing until this afternoon. Winds will be lighter today as high pressure settles overhead this afternoon. High pressure overhead, clear skies, and dry soils will produce great radiational cooling tonight. A few of our typical cold spots could drop into the lower teens to near 10 in the area peatland and pocosin.
As high pressure remains dominant over the OH River Valley, dry air will continue to filter in from the east. In return, mostly sunny skies coupled with forecast temperatures above freezing in most areas (reaching the mid to upper 30s) will allow some melting today-- especially south of the TN River where locations are warmer.
436 AM EST Sun Jan 21 2024 High Impact Weather Potential: Minimal Pattern Synopsis: Mid/upper-level ridging will continue to slide over the Great Lakes through the end of the weekend. As aforementioned high pressure builds to our south and east, weak winds look to increase out of the south-southwest later today into tonight as the pressure gradient tightens on the backside of this feature. This enhanced low-level flow will help advect warmer air northward across the Great Lakes. Forecast lows in the teens and low 20s for tonight/early Monday morning will also be at least several degrees warmer than most recent readings overnight. Pattern Synopsis and Forecast: Current strong jet maxima over the Pacific Ocean with midlevel longwave ridging across the western and central CONUS.
521 AM CST Sun Jan 21 2024 (Today through Monday night) The ridge currently across the region is departing eastward with a trough pushing into the region. It will not be until the trough becomes the main feature over the region on Monday that the gradient will finally slacken. The southerly winds will help to move warmer and more moist air across the panhandles. This will take time to have an effect as today will still be on the cooler and drier side with highs in the 30s to 40s. Monday will see the highs increase to the 40s and 50s and be far more moisture especially in the eastern panhandles. Since overnight temperatures are going to be near to below freezing this fog may turn to freezing fog introducing the threat of slick spots on the roads.
606 AM CST Sun Jan 21 2024 Today and Tonight: The core of an Arctic high pressure system was situated over the confluence of the Mississippi and Ohio Rivers early this morning. Just to our west, our next weather maker will be taking shape as an upper-level trough crosses the Southern Rockies.
917 AM EST Sun Jan 21 2024 Arctic high pressure will build over our region through tonight. This high will push east and offshore on Monday, starting a warming trend that will bring above normal temperatures later this week. Water vapor satellite imagery displayed a ridge building east across the TN Valley and Great Lakes Region, with a very dry airmass directly across the Carolinas. The dry air in place, along with optimal radiational cooling from the ridge building in, will make for another cold night tonight, with lows dropping to the mid to upper teens.
253 AM MST Sun Jan 21 2024 Today through Monday night: While an above freezing layer is now present aloft near 850mb across the area, a strong inversion with cold air pooling at the lowest elevations remains in place. Given road temperatures are currently below freezing even in areas with air temperatures slightly above, expanded the Winter Weather Advisory for today a tier of counties south from Petroleum to McCone.
404 AM EST Sun Jan 21 2024 (Today through Monday) High pressure and dry conditions will continue today.
- Wintery mix of snow, sleet, and even some light freezing rain will be possible tonight, changing over to all snow by Monday morning. Probabilities for mixed precipitation have increased, with chances for freezing rain between 10 and 30 percent while sleet are 20 to 60 percent as precipitation starts to move in late Sunday afternoon and evening. With the potential for mixed precipitation, where even a small amount of freezing rain could cause impacts, will increase messaging. For now, will put out an SPS for our southeastern ND and a few of our west central/northwest MN counties, based on best probabilities from the HREF for any freezing rain accumulation. While there is still a lot of uncertainty on precip type and where exactly the band will track, giving a heads up for the downside of warmer temperatures seems prudent.
531 AM CST Sun Jan 21 2024 - Sleet and freezing rain expected across the region Sunday night into Monday morning.
================================================================= Key Message: * A few degrees warmer today/tonight, but still cold ================================================================= Strong high pressure centered over Kentucky early this morning will slide eastward to West Virginia by this evening and into Virginia/North Carolina tonight, resulting in a light southeast surface breeze this afternoon into tonight.
A low pressure system off the coast of Washington will continue to send waves of moisture into our area through the short term. 20 inches in the high country. Perhaps the more impactful issue is that we are seeing some light showers working through the Magic Valley this morning producing light freezing rain. Have decided to add patchy freezing drizzle to the forecast this morning and issued a special weather statement to highlight this potential impact.
(Today through Monday night) The ridge currently across the region is departing eastward with a trough pushing into the region. It will not be until the trough becomes the main feature over the region on Monday that the gradient will finally slacken. The southerly winds will help to move warmer and more moist air across the panhandles. This will take time to have an effect as today will still be on the cooler and drier side with highs in the 30s to 40s. Monday will see the highs increase to the 40s and 50s and be far more moisture especially in the eastern panhandles. Since overnight temperatures are going to be near to below freezing this fog may turn to freezing fog introducing the threat of slick spots on the roads.
Highs will reach into the 30's today with some locations finally making their way past the freezing mark. The warmer temperatures and solar radiation should help melt some of the remaining snowpack, but temperatures will fall back into the teens to around 20 tonight which will refreeze any melting once again. All of Middle Tennessee will warm well above freezing into the 40s on Monday as an upper level ridge builds northward from the Gulf Coast, and this will kick operation snowmelt into high gear.
We will have one more cool morning tomorrow, though lows will be around 10 degrees warmer than this morning.
Tomorrow, as the high shifts offshore, a more southerly low level flow will develop, especially across the southern Valley and Plateau. Some high clouds may build in late in the day on the back side of the upper ridge axis, otherwise skies will be clear and sunny.
Overnight fog is possible due to snow melt Sunday afternoon with the warmer temperatures as short term models are hitting on a better potential for development into the early morning hours Monday through mid to late morning before noon.
1117 AM CST Sun Jan 21 2024 - A chance of freezing rain enters our northwest tier of counties Monday morning. There is up to a 50% chance of minor impacts from light ice accumulation, mainly for the Ozarks counties and near vicinity, before temperatures rise above freezing Monday afternoon.
1030 AM MST Sun Jan 21 2024 - Warmer along and east of the mountains today, while periods of mainly light snow are expected along the Continental Divide.
A few more degrees of warming is expected through the remainder of the afternoon with some locations potentially crossing the freezing threshold.
120 PM EST Sun Jan 21 2024 Canadian high pressure will maintain very cold temperatures through Monday morning. As the high pushes offshore, much warmer and humid air will overspread the Carolinas through the rest of the work week. Winds will be lighter today as high pressure settles overhead this afternoon. High pressure overhead, clear skies, and dry soils will produce great radiational cooling tonight. A few of our typical cold spots could drop into the lower teens to near 10 in the area peatland and pocosin.
(Tonight) Temps in some locations have finally climbed above the freezing mark heading into the afternoon hrs this Sun, as high pressure to the north moves eastward into the mid Atlantic region. Temps will again fall below freezing later tonight, with lows falling mainly into the upper teens/lower 20s.
1051 AM CST Sun Jan 21 2024 Surface analysis late this morning places a 1043 mb ridge of high pressure over the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. Temperatures will warm into the 30s this afternoon mostly across north Mississippi and to near freezing near the TN/MS border. Latest 12Z guidance is trending towards an afternoon arrival for rain which should limit the potential for freezing rain west of the Mississippi River Monday morning.
1014 AM EST Sun Jan 21 2024 Light snow showers and flurries will diminish across the area this morning, lingering longest in the higher elevations.
258 PM EST Sun Jan 21 2024 Arctic high pressure settles over the area through Monday.
947 AM MST Sun Jan 21 2024 Morning Update: A north to south line of precipitation is moving through Phillips, Garfield, and Valley county from southwest to northeast, bringing with it light freezing rain. There is light accumulating freezing rain of a few hundredths up to five hundredths occurring, especially along the Missouri Breaks in the above mentioned counties. Today through Monday night: While an above freezing layer is now present aloft near 850mb across the area, a strong inversion with cold air pooling at the lowest elevations remains in place. Given road temperatures are currently below freezing even in areas with air temperatures slightly above, expanded the Winter Weather Advisory for today a tier of counties south from Petroleum to McCone.
311 PM EST Sun Jan 21 2024 There is a chance of snow changing to freezing rain on Monday in northwest Indiana and southwest Michigan. Monday night, across the whole region, freezing rain is expected.
20z/2pm surface map shows a sprawling ridge of high pressure extending from Quebec to the Gulf Coast. Temperatures will drop a couple of degrees after sunset: however, as winds veer to S/SW and continue to be strong/gusty, readings will rise back into the lower to middle 20s by dawn Monday. Forecast soundings suggest a gradual loss of ice crystals during the morning, which would mean a transition to mostly freezing rain. Surface temps will climb into the lower 30s, but will likely remain near the freezing mark. Ground and pavement temperatures will most certainly remain below freezing, so the threat for additional icing will continue for the evening commute.
341 PM EST Sun Jan 21 2024 Canadian high pressure will maintain very cold temperatures through Monday morning. As the high pushes offshore, much warmer and humid air will overspread the Carolinas through the rest of the work week. Tonight will still be quite cold as we sit under Canadian high pressure. Otherwise, lows will largely be near 20, slightly warmer near the coast. Come Mon morning the center of high pressure should be slightly to our north, where it will continue to the east through the day, pushing offshore around the afternoon. Flow aloft around the back of the high will take on a SWly component with some weak WAA filtering over the area.
Mixed precipitation including freezing rain with accumulations up to a glaze are possible. However, soundings do indicate this may turn into freezing precipitation due to the warm tongue of air over the still freezing air mass in place at the surface in the far east. Models are generating just some light snow again in the high country with this feature (25% chance of 1+ in. ), but not any precipitation over the lower elevations. This could result in some light precipitation or even just freezing mist in these areas this evening.
Temps across much of the area will finally climb above freezing later today, as high pressure to the north begins to move eastward into the mid Atlantic region. The exception may be in the some of the higher elevation locations.
1057 AM CST Sun Jan 21 2024 - Sleet and freezing rain expected across the region Sunday night into Monday morning.
1211 PM CST Sun Jan 21 2024 (Today through Monday night) The ridge currently across the region is departing eastward with a trough pushing into the region. It will not be until the trough becomes the main feature over the region on Monday that the gradient will finally slacken. The southerly winds will help to move warmer and more moist air across the panhandles. This will take time to have an effect as today will still be on the cooler and drier side with highs in the 30s to 40s. Monday will see the highs increase to the 40s and 50s and be far more moisture especially in the eastern panhandles. Since overnight temperatures are going to be near to below freezing this fog may turn to freezing fog introducing the threat of slick spots on the roads.
The center of a large polar anticyclone is over Kentucky. A large high pressure system blanketing the eastern United States will slide steadily east southeast over the next several days.
An upper level trough will lift north over the region Monday helping to shove moisture east briefly. Low clouds and fog will spread back across the area Monday night as another upper trough takes shape to our west.
PoPs and QPF/snow amounts were increased over the higher mountains throughout the rest of the day. There's been a bit of a gap early this morning, but the high clouds will thicken again from the southwest this morning. We expect more widespread but pretty light snow over the ridges by mid morning, with some flurries getting into the valleys but little or now accumulation there.
(This evening through Monday) The current weather has temperatures above freezing across the entire area, mainly upper 30s to lower 40s. So the good news is no freezing rain to deal with this afternoon, just light rain. For the northeast Big Country, temperatures may be around freezing for a few hours for a little ice but no impacts are expected. Warmer on Monday with highs in the 50s and 60s as the remaining bit of arctic air is removed from our area.
106 PM MST Sun Jan 21 2024 102 PM MST Sun Jan 21 2024 - Weak back door cool front may assist freezing fog development in the near term - Mild air still on tap for most folks 19z surface analysis had warm front from central ND into eastern CO, lee trough from central MT into central CO, and weak cool front from north-central MT into central ND. Main forecast concern in the near term is freezing fog potential behind weak cool front.
252 PM CST Sun Jan 21 2024 - A period of freezing rain appears likely across the Ozark Foothills of southeast Missouri Monday morning and afternoon. Elsewhere, temperatures largely rise above freezing before the rain arrives.
1201 PM CST Sun Jan 21 2024 Surface analysis late this morning places a 1043 mb ridge of high pressure over the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. Temperatures will warm into the 30s this afternoon mostly across north Mississippi and to near freezing near the TN/MS border. Latest 12Z guidance is trending towards an afternoon arrival for rain which should limit the potential for freezing rain west of the Mississippi River Monday morning.
Warmer temperatures are expected Monday, though not everyone will get above freezing just yet.
153 PM EST Sun Jan 21 2024 Arctic high pressure settles over the area through Monday.
Water vapor imagery highlights a long wave trough deep into Mexico. The forecast for the next several days will hinge upon the building ridge over the Greater Antilles (591+ dm at 500 mb) and the anomalous heights extending north into the Northeast US. This pattern will maintain the artic high pressure system's potency as it transitions into a large subtropical anticyclone over the western North Atlantic. As the ridge recedes into the western North Atlantic, temperatures will moderate and low-level moisture will make a comeback across the Florida Keys.
248 PM CST Sun Jan 21 2024 - Winter Weather Advisory issued for freezing rain and freezing drizzle across much of the forecast area this evening through Monday morning.
The H5 ridge has moved to the east, opening up the more zonal flow across the state this morning. Areas downwind of mountain ranges will see temperatures into the 40s today, while the lower basins of the WInd River and Bighorn valleys will continue to see the cold pools stuck in place. Some moderation will finally occur with mixing, but getting above the freezing point will be a tough sell for most of the afternoon. KJAC will likely see precipitation start as rain (90% chance), as surface temps are above freezing, however a few snow flakes may mix in (30% chance) later this afternoon as a wave of heavier precipitation moves across the terminal. Warmer temps today will likely cause some melting and put enough moisture into the lower atmosphere to allow for fog to develop (60% chance) given radiational cooling overnight.
1258 PM EST Sun Jan 21 2024 High Impact Weather Potential: Minimal Pattern Synopsis: Mid/upper-level ridging will continue to slide over the Great Lakes through the end of the weekend. As aforementioned high pressure builds to our south and east, weak winds look to increase out of the south-southwest later today into tonight as the pressure gradient tightens on the backside of this feature. This enhanced low-level flow will help advect warmer air northward across the Great Lakes. Forecast lows in the teens and low 20s for tonight/early Monday morning will also be at least several degrees warmer than most recent readings overnight. Pattern Synopsis and Forecast: Current strong jet maxima over the Pacific Ocean with midlevel longwave ridging across the western and central CONUS.
The influence of this high is dry weather and benign weather conditions in place across the Southeast. A wedge of high pressure is anticipated to set up across north Georgia by Monday afternoon. Low temperatures will start off in the low to mid 20s.
510 PM CST Sun Jan 21 2024 A gradual return of warmer temperatures are expected this week with highs by mid to late week in the 50s and 60s.
A gradual return of warmer temperatures are expected this week with highs by mid to late week in the 50s and 60s.
- Mild for the new week with highs in the 30s (maybe 40 for some) and lows just a few degrees under freezing. - OVERVIEW: the cold air finally kicks east today with the upper level flow slated to become more zonal to broad ridging for the new week.
The onshore influence areawide will keep temps warmer than last night, though still chilly north/west of I-4.
544 PM CST Sun Jan 21 2024 (This evening through Monday) Main impact in the short term will be freezing rain between late this afternoon and early tomorrow morning. With everything west of I-35 above freezing right now, these will begin as non-freezing precipitation. CAMs are divided on how far southwest the freezing line moves. Daytime temperatures in south central Oklahoma have been on the higher end of guidance, so have trended the forecast in this direction (cloud cover and southerly flow favoring persistence). Additionally, ground temps have been persistently above freezing as far east as Love county along the Red River. Tomorrow, temperatures should fairly quickly warm above freezing (even with our forecast being on the lower end of guidance). Most areas climb above freezing by 10am.
630 PM MST Sun Jan 21 2024 Evening Update: With all the moisture from today's freezing rain event and a couple peeks of afternoon sun (especially in western zones) that allowed for some melting and evaporation of the rain, lower levels of the atmosphere will approach or reach saturation late tonight into tomorrow morning.
(This evening through Monday) Main impact in the short term will be freezing rain between late this afternoon and early tomorrow morning. With everything west of I-35 above freezing right now, these will begin as non-freezing precipitation. CAMs are divided on how far southwest the freezing line moves. Daytime temperatures in south central Oklahoma have been on the higher end of guidance, so have trended the forecast in this direction (cloud cover and southerly flow favoring persistence). Additionally, ground temps have been persistently above freezing as far east as Love county along the Red River. Tomorrow, temperatures should fairly quickly warm above freezing (even with our forecast being on the lower end of guidance). Most areas climb above freezing by 10am.
After a wave of precipitation overnight, drier conditions have momentarily set up across the valley portions of our CWA due to a weak upper level ridge moving in.