Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Trying to nail down predominant p-types with this event is a mess but in general snow is more favored east of Highway 131 where sfc temps will be a tad cooler (32-34). A period of freezing rain cannot be ruled out, although the low probs of that are mainly around Harrison and JXN where guidance sfc temps look cold enough to support it. Otherwise the increasing southerly flow ahead of the cold front brings enough warming to limit the ZR potential for most places. Temperatures will be around to just above freezing Tuesday morning and warm up into the mid 30s during the day. Overall, not really expecting much in the way of impacts with 0-2 inches of snow across the area with the highest amounts along the US-127 corridor.
Pattern Synopsis: Troughing will continue to dig across the Great Lakes today, eventually working down into the Mid-Atlantic tonight. Upstream ridging current over southern Canada will follow aforementioned troughing and slide over the Great Lakes by tonight. Additionally, air temperatures a few degrees warmer than freezing boosts confidence in drizzle being the primary precipitation type for most areas today -- should any be falling. Low chances (10-20%) for precipitation are in place through this afternoon before waning this evening as aforementioned ridging brings drier air into the region. PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: High pressure builds back overhead and brings back mild temperatures to the CWA by Wednesday.
At this time, not confident enough in the amount of boundary layer moisture for any significant enough dense fog for freezing fog, but some patchy fog (2-5SM) is not out of the question, especially in rivers/valleys. No major changes were needed with the lows as they were in good shape with the latest guidance and should be in the upper 20s NE to the lower 30s elsewhere. It will get cold tonight with lows near or just below freezing. Some freezing river fog is possible early tomorrow morning. The ridge axis will shift east of the area tomorrow and strong warm air advection will result in quite the warm up during the day.
There could be a few pockets where fog becomes dense enough to create some freezing fog. It should not be widespread enough for a freezing fog advisory. Some light showers will be possible this afternoon as a cold front approaches the area. Models try to push the precip chances out quickly this evening but a compact upper low will move through the Upper Cumberland late this evening through the earliest hours of Wednesday. Some sun may peek out near sunset as high pressure slides in from the west.
/Issued 1207 AM CST Tue Jan 30 2024/ /Through Tuesday Night/ A developing mid-level ridge over the Southern Plains will lead to a period of dry and abnormally warm weather during the middle part of this week. Low-pressure shifting across the Great Lakes Region will send a weak frontal boundary south into North and Central Texas by late Tuesday morning.
A quick transition to more showery rain/snow is then expected under the low center by Tuesday afternoon/evening otherwise with steeper lapse rates and loss of deeper saturation.
Cold, dry air continues to push into the area following yesterday's cold front. The winds will also begin to diminish tonight as high pressure settles in. Cold temperatures stick around through the week, with the help of the reinforcing cold front.
a new cold front will drop SE into the state by midday. with the main impact being some gusty NRLY winds and cooler temps in the wake of the front.
123 AM EST Tue Jan 30 2024 High pressure settling south out of Quebec into New England will keep most of our area dry today.
1115 PM CST Mon Jan 29 2024 (Tonight) Quiet/seasonably cool wx conditions prevail across the central TN Valley this Mon evening, as a weak area of high pressure quickly moves eastward across the region. Predom clear skies are in place as evidenced by a dry NW flow regime, as current temps fall into the lower/mid 30s.
1019 PM EST Mon Jan 29 2024 A mean upper level trough is likely to remain in place over the region through this week, with a weak Alberta Clipper tracking south of Pennsylvania Tuesday night into Wednesday.
1214 AM EST Tue Jan 30 2024 High pressure and dry weather will dominate across the region through Tuesday. An area of low pressure will move through the southeast late Tuesday night through Wednesday, bringing low end chances for showers. High pressure will remain rebuild across the region through the rest of the week. Upon passage of the wave, northwesterly winds will surge for a bit later Wednesday into Wednesday night ushering in slightly cooler air.
1052 PM CST Mon Jan 29 2024 (This evening through Tuesday night) Benign weather will continue tonight through Tuesday night as an upper level ridge of high pressure prevails over the plains states.
1029 PM CST Mon Jan 29 2024 Benign weather to prevail in the near term with high pressures over the area. High pressure is currently over the local region this afternoon, however the ridge will shift south and east into Tuesday.
A cold front will bring additional low clouds tonight, with some patchy drizzle/ freezing drizzle possible. - A slightly cooler, but still mild and dry pattern will follow through the weekend. The only thing that could limit this is a line of mid/upper level clouds passing through this afternoon along a cold front. Moisture profiles show saturation only reaching ~5-6 kft, likely limiting any precipitation to drizzle and freezing drizzle. Following this system, the low level stratus is likely to stick around tomorrow, resulting in a relatively cooler day with highs in the upper 30s. Things will shift again Wednesday night as another clipper system makes it way down from Canada, ushering in cooler and drier air behind it.
The influence of high pressure will weaken slightly throughout the day ahead of a dry cold front which will press down into southeast Georgia overnight and into early Wednesday morning. High temperatures for today will rise into the 60s with overnight low temperatures dropping down into the lower 40s.
KEY MESSAGES: - A rain/snow mix is expected this afternoon into Wednesday morning with low pressure dropping south from Great Lakes. - light snow accumulations are only in the higher elevations. An upper low will move southward through the upper Midwest today.
Generally dry and warmer conditions are expected across the Mid- South today but a cold front will knock highs back into the upper 40s and lower 50s for Wednesday.
1123 PM EST Mon Jan 29 2024 A mean upper level trough is likely to remain in place over the region through this week, with a weak Alberta Clipper tracking south of Pennsylvania Tuesday night into Wednesday.
327 AM EST Tue Jan 30 2024 High pressure settling south out of Quebec into New England will keep most of our area dry today.
An upper level ridge initially over the Great Basin today will slide eastward into the Plains by tonight. The main part of the ridge associated with the anti-cyclonic circulation is expected to build over the Canadian Prairie Provinces and the northern Great Plains by Wednesday night.
102 AM MST Tue Jan 30 2024 1222 AM MST Tue Jan 30 2024 - Very mild and dry through mid week, with slight cooling late week - Pattern change brings good chances for precipitation (mainly rain) this weekend, with some minor snow accumulations in the Black Hills and parts of northeast WY Water vapor shows large upper ridge extending from the Great Basin through the Northern Rockies, with upper trof just offshore the west coast. Thermal ridge peaks overhead today into Wednesday, with many plains areas reaching into the 60s both days. Slightly cooler temps (although still well above average) expected later in the week as thermal ridge shifts east.
Can't rule out a little freezing rain mixing in either. As the low passes through during the middle of the day, the loss of mid-level moisture, featuring dry air in the DGZ and really anywhere colder than about -5C, will limit precipitation to drizzle or sporadic light showers.
1054 PM CST Mon Jan 29 2024 (Tonight through Tuesday night) Other than some streaming high clouds to filter the sun, the next 36 hours will be warmer than normal with south and southwest surface winds in the daytime hours through Tuesday. High pressure ridging over TX will help maintain warm afternoon temps about 5 to 7 degrees above late January normals. A weak backdoor ridge settles over parts of Central to NE TX late Tuesday, but model trend seem to favor the upper ridge having more influence on the surface winds and temperatures.
120 AM MST Tue Jan 30 2024 - High pressure continues, with mild and dry weather today.
KEY MESSAGES: - A rain/snow mix is expected this afternoon into Wednesday morning with low pressure dropping south from Great Lakes. - light snow accumulations are only in the higher elevations. An upper low will drift southward through the upper Midwest today.
150 AM MST Tue Jan 30 2024 An upper level ridge will keep conditions dry and unseasonably warm through the short term. The basis for the change is the strong Pacific system/Jet Stream gets stymied by the downstream ridge which comes to a halt near the Mississippi river this weekend. All that energy then has to go somewhere, and in the latest models that is northward along the west side of the strong but increasingly stationary ridge.
High pressure remains in control over the area, so today and Wednesday will still be fairly quiet weather days.
1034 PM CST Mon Jan 29 2024 (This evening through Tuesday) Thin cirrus continued to overspread the region this afternoon downstream of upper ridging to our west. Favored a blend of cooler guidance tonight in our NW zones where light winds look on par for another round of efficient radiational cooling. Otherwise, cirrus should dissipate tomorrow under the sprawling ridge.
The culprit will be an upper level ridge axis moving directly overhead today.
1051 PM CST Mon Jan 29 2024 - A cold front will bring move through the area tonight accompanied by a chance of light rain. Most of Missouri has seen the sun all day, and as a result temperatures have risen into the low to mid-50s. The evening will remain clear and calm before a cold front brings low- level clouds and minor precipitation chances back to the region tonight into Tuesday. The cold front will usher in cooler air on its backside.
1236 AM EST Tue Jan 30 2024 A mean upper level trough is likely to remain in place over the region through this week, with a weak Alberta Clipper tracking south of Pennsylvania Tuesday night into Wednesday.
Northwesterly winds at the SFC back to westerly aloft, highlighting the deep layer ridging to our south and west. Temperatures fell quickly after dark, but are now stuck in the lower 60s. A reinforcing cold front will push through the Florida Keys Wednesday night, followed by a brief freshening of breezes.
1127 PM CST Mon Jan 29 2024 Benign weather to prevail in the near term with high pressures over the area. High pressure is currently over the local region this afternoon, however the ridge will shift south and east into Tuesday.
Otherwise, rather warm temperatures for late January this evening ahead of the front, with most lows tonight ranging in the low 50s. Upper level low pressure returns late in the week, bringing much cooler temperatures and a return of lower snow levels.
103 AM EST Tue Jan 30 2024 A dry and cooler air mass is spreading across the region. High pressure will dominate through Tuesday with seasonable temperatures. An upper low pressure system will move over the region Tuesday night and Wednesday with a few showers.
1040 PM EST Mon Jan 29 2024 Lake effect snow showers will dissipate by the early evening as high pressure moves into the region.
938 PM MST Mon Jan 29 2024 - High pressure over the region will keep skies mostly clear and temperatures above normal through the week.
Northwest flow aloft will bring through trough/weakish front tonight and keep winds up just a touch into early evening in northern sections of the forecast area. There is cold advection which will linger into tomorrow for eastern areas and that will keep that region cooler than the western areas, though still above normal. Bottom line though is Tuesday is another melting day for snow with highs ranging from the lower 40s near York to near 60 at Cambridge and Plainville. Assuming any fog which may develop dissipates, Wednesday will be warmer day with upper level ridging right overhead and favored westerly flow.
This upper low will track across our area tonight, but will have limited moisture to work with. Thermal profiles indicate the precipitation will change over to snow over the higher terrain, and the high elevations will likely see some light snow accumulations. NBM has only about a 20- 40% chance of exceeding 1 inch of snow over the higher elevations, while the HREF is more bullish. Will generally forecast up to 2 inches mainly at elevations above 3000 feet, with locally higher amounts possible over the highest peaks. For now will just include this higher elvation light snow potential in the HWO.
GOES-16 satellite imagery reveals clear skies for a majority of the forecast area early this morning with high pressure in control. On Wednesday the trough trapped under the ridge kicks out towards the Plains ahead of a deep trough making landfall along the West Coast.
- Cold front moves through the region tonight, yielding cooler temperatures for tomorrow. - Cooler temperatures and rain chances arrive this weekend. However, a mid/upper level trough descending out of Canada and into the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes region will send a cold front through the region from northwest to southeast late tonight into early tomorrow morning, turning winds to the northwest, bringing in some low to mid level cloud cover, and ushering in colder temperatures. High temperatures for tomorrow should range from the mid to upper 40s for the KC metro and points southwest to as cold as the upper 30s over northeast Missouri, which will be under greater influence from the aforementioned trough. Relatively high amplitude mid level ridging builds in by Wednesday afternoon with surface winds becoming south southwesterly.
321 AM EST Tue Jan 30 2024 High pressure settling south out of Quebec into New England will keep most of our area dry today.
1058 PM CST Mon Jan 29 2024 - Small light rain/snow chances (15-25%) along a Canadian cold front tonight and associated with the cyclonic flow aloft in the wake of this front on Tuesday morning. - There may be some redevelopment of dense fog across parts of southwest Wisconsin and northeast Iowa this evening, and then the visibilities should improve in the wake of the Pacific cold front between 30. During this evening, a Pacific cold front will move southeast across the Upper Mississippi River Valley. Unlike the past several days, the visibilities should improve in the wake of the Canadian cold front between 30. 5C on Tuesday afternoon and mainly cloudy skies, high temperatures will be cooler (ranging from mid-30s to lower 40s).
(Today through Wednesday) An H5 ridge axis to our west will cross the region on Wednesday, with NW flow aloft today becoming SW by the end of the short term period. Widespread cirrus overhead early this morning will decrease in coverage today, especially over northern portions of the region, and we anticipate a warmer than normal day with highs reaching the low 70s in most locations.
This upper low will track across our area tonight, but will have limited moisture to work with. Thermal profiles indicate the precipitation will change over to snow over the higher terrain, and the high elevations will likely see some light snow accumulations. NBM has only about a 20- 40% chance of exceeding 1 inch of snow over the higher elevations, while the HREF is more bullish. Will generally forecast up to 2 inches mainly at elevations above 3000 feet, with locally higher amounts possible over the highest peaks. For now will just include this higher elevation light snow potential in the HWO.
Satellite imagery early Tuesday morning shows the mid-level trough of low pressure beginning to drop southeast of the Northland. The best chances for an inch of snowfall (40%) are through the sunrise hours early this morning and then tapering by late morning as flow backs westerly into the Midday hours with an incoming mid-level low-amplitude ridge. Incoming much warmer air advects into the region from west to east beginning late Tuesday evening and spreads across the entire Northland by early Wednesday morning.
912 AM EST Tue Jan 30 2024 High pressure settling south out of Quebec into New England will keep most of our area dry today.
449 AM CST Tue Jan 30 2024 (Today and tonight) Upper level ridging will continue to build over the area today, helping to keep our temperatures above normal and even increase today's highs by a degree or two in some areas. Wind speeds will remain light thanks to the high pressure and weak pressure gradient at the surface, but the wind direction will be a bit erratic. A weak cold front will move through the northeastern half of our area late this morning and early this afternoon.
High pressure will bring warming temperatures and dry conditions through Wednesday.
Otherwise, dry weather will continue through the period with warmer than normal temperatures today and near normal tonight. This feature will continue dropping southeast through tonight and develop a closed low over the southern Appalachians by Wednesday morning. In the wake of the cold front a >1024mb high will build into the CWA from the northwest resulting in near normal morning lows Wednesday.
Cold and dry high pressure will remain in the region with below normal temps continuing today under mostly sunny skies. High pressure remains over the area bringing chilly temperatures and dry conditions to the region. Cool conditions will remain in place this week as a reinforcing cold front sweeps across the state on Wednesday.
Some light returns are showing up on radar early this morning across northeastern Minnesota and northwestern Wisconsin, but with ample dry air in place, this precip is only falling as light drizzle/freezing drizzle. Elsewhere across the region, low clouds have returned and will stick around through the day, resulting in cooler temperatures. This cool down will be short-lived as a ridge axis slides overhead Wednesday.
(Today and tonight) Upper level ridging will continue to build over the area today, helping to keep our temperatures above normal and even increase today's highs by a degree or two in some areas. Wind speeds will remain light thanks to the high pressure and weak pressure gradient at the surface, but the wind direction will be a bit erratic. A weak cold front will move through the northeastern half of our area late this morning and early this afternoon.
341 AM CST Tue Jan 30 2024 - A slight chance of rain accompanies a cold frontal passage today, mainly east of the Mississippi, with sprinkles lingering through the afternoon and evening.
343 AM MST Tue Jan 30 2024 - High pressure continues, with mild and dry weather today.
531 AM CST Tue Jan 30 2024 (Today through Wednesday afternoon) Another gorgeous day is in store for West Texas and southeast New Mexico as upper level ridging holds in place. The rain chances are short lived and amounts stay on the lower side.
326 AM CST Tue Jan 30 2024 Forecast discussion for routine morning forecast issuance - Scattered light freezing drizzle and snow may cause locally slippery roads this morning, mostly over central and north central Wisconsin. and Wednesday An upper level trough was moving across the western Great Lakes at 3am, while a weak cold front was exiting eastern Wisconsin. The upper trough was producing scattered light rain and snow was reported in central and northcentral Wisconsin. The models insist that there will be some clearing late tonight and Wednesday as upper ridging edges in from the northern Plains. Assuming there is some sunshine Wednesday, we should see highs in the lower 40s.
540 AM CST Tue Jan 30 2024 (Today through Wednesday Night) High pressure was situated to the east of AR early this mrng, resulting in mainly a light W/SW wind flow acrs the FA. Meanwhile, a weak sfc trof was apchg NW AR, along with a CDFNT further to the N. Predawn temps ranged fm the mid 30s to the mid 40s in most areas, with lower/mid 50s in some of the higher elevations of NW AR. Once the CDFNT shifts south of AR, cooler air wl return to much of the Mid-South for Wed.
Upper level ridging will continue to support well above average temperatures through the rest of the week, with today being the warmest for many areas.
(Today) Clear and calm conditions have allowed for radiational cooling to drop temps into the low 30s - high 20s area wide. With many locations already observing near zero dew point depressions and no winds, freezing fog is becoming increasingly likely. With several hours left in the night, additional radiational cooling of a degree or so is possible which would increase the potential for subsequent freezing fog development. We Will continue to monitor observations should freezing fog become more wide spread and warrant an advisory.
525 AM CST Tue Jan 30 2024 - A slight chance of rain accompanies a cold frontal passage today, mainly east of the Mississippi, with sprinkles lingering through the afternoon and evening.
305 AM CST Tue Jan 30 2024 - A weak cold front passes through this morning, cooling highs slightly in the 50s under partly cloudy skies.
321 AM MST Tue Jan 30 2024 1222 AM MST Tue Jan 30 2024 - Very mild and dry through mid week, with slight cooling late week - Pattern change brings good chances for precipitation (mainly rain) this weekend, with some minor snow accumulations in the Black Hills and parts of northeast WY Water vapor shows large upper ridge extending from the Great Basin through the Northern Rockies, with upper trof just offshore the west coast. Thermal ridge peaks overhead today into Wednesday, with many plains areas reaching into the 60s both days. Slightly cooler temps (although still well above average) expected later in the week as thermal ridge shifts east.
(Today through Wednesday Night) High pressure was situated to the east of AR early this mrng, resulting in mainly a light W/SW wind flow acrs the FA. Meanwhile, a weak sfc trof was apchg NW AR, along with a CDFNT further to the N. Predawn temps ranged fm the mid 30s to the mid 40s in most areas, with lower/mid 50s in some of the higher elevations of NW AR. Once the CDFNT shifts south of AR, cooler air wl return to much of the Mid-South for Wed.
515 AM CST Tue Jan 30 2024 Updated aviation portion for 12Z TAF issuance - Scattered light freezing drizzle and snow may cause locally slippery roads this morning, mostly over central and north central Wisconsin. and Wednesday An upper level trough was moving across the western Great Lakes at 3am, while a weak cold front was exiting eastern Wisconsin. The upper trough was producing scattered light rain and snow was reported in central and northcentral Wisconsin. The models insist that there will be some clearing late tonight and Wednesday as upper ridging edges in from the northern Plains. Assuming there is some sunshine Wednesday, we should see highs in the lower 40s.
515 AM CST Tue Jan 30 2024 (Today through Wednesday) An H5 ridge axis to our west will cross the region on Wednesday, with NW flow aloft today becoming SW by the end of the short term period. Widespread cirrus overhead early this morning will decrease in coverage today, especially over northern portions of the region, and we anticipate a warmer than normal day with highs reaching the low 70s in most locations.
A narrow band of isentropic lift along the main trof axis was already producing mostly rain over the far southwest corner of Lower Michigan into northwest Indiana well before daybreak. Few of any traffic impacts or weather issues are expected with temperatures mainly above freezing. Temperatures will be well above normal with highs mainly in the 40s during this entire time as a blocking pattern remains firmly established. Cold frontal passage already just southeast of KSBN and expect just a few post frontal light rain showers with the trough axis passage through about 17z, however with the drier air moving in could curtail them just a bit sooner.