Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Some patchy frost will be possible mainly in NE Tennessee and SW Virginia but overall lows will be a few degrees warmer than last night. (This evening through Saturday) Key Messages: Fall weather continues Discussion: Clear skies and seasonal temperatures continue today and tonight as we sit under high pressure near the surface and riding in the mid levels of the atmosphere. With the sunnier skies and strengthening pressure we're seeing temperatures climbing around 5-10 degrees warmer than yesterday, and just a couple of degrees off seasonal normals.
Very dry soundings the next few days mean large diurnal temperature ranges, with lows tonight dropping below freezing across rural areas and rising 30 to 40 degrees tomorrow.
808 PM CDT Fri Oct 18 2024 A beautiful night is on display across the Mid-South with current temperatures in the upper 40s to lower 60s as high pressure continues to dominate our weather pattern. Forecast overnight lows are in the low to mid 40s with tomorrow's highs in the low to mid 70s.
A quiet evening continues across West Central and SWFL as high pressure remains dominant. Early 0Z sounding shows an inversion is settling in place at the lowest 1 km or so; this may yield some decoupling that could support winds dying down more than currently forecast overnight.
745 PM EDT Fri Oct 18 2024 Dry conditions with cooler than average temperatures continue into the weekend as high pressure remains over the region. An upper ridge building over the eastern CONUS brings gradually moderating temperatures through much of the week ahead with no rainfall forecast for the next 7 days. A front could approach the area towards the end of the week, bringing the potential for some cooler temps back to the region. Strong high pressure surface and aloft centered in the Ohio Valley extending south across the Carolinas into Georgia. With air mass modification expect lows tonight to be a little warmer than last night.
Another quiet and chilly night is in store as high pressure dominates the regional weather pattern in the lower levels. Kovacik (This evening through Saturday Night) Dry conditions are expected to continue this short-term, as upper-level ridging will begin to shift east later tonight. Highs tomorrow will range in the mid-70s to low-80s, with overnight lows ranging in the low-40s to low-50s.
555 PM CDT Fri Oct 18 2024 (Thru Saturday) Mild / breezy conditions this afternoon with high temperatures climbing into the lower to mid 70s in most areas.
Tomorrow we will transition from the influence of the exiting low, to the building ridge of high pressure offshore. Most other inland locations will be in the low to mid 80s.
637 PM EDT Fri Oct 18 2024 Dry high pressure persists through the forecast period. Another very pleasant Fall day is in store Sat with the airmass modifying a little warmer as highs reach the l70s east of the mtns and mid to upper 60s across the mtn valleys.
701 PM CDT Fri Oct 18 2024 Another cool afternoon and evening is on tap across the Lower Mississippi Valley as a high pressure hovers over the Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic Region this afternoon. Temperatures remain on track for highs in the lower to middle 70s across the region.
Have nudged temps slightly cooler from previous forecast due to minimal cirrus coverage to start the evening. /NF/ Another cool afternoon and evening is on tap across the Lower Mississippi Valley as a high pressure hovers over the Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic Region this afternoon. Temperatures remain on track for highs in the lower to middle 70s across the region.
Temperatures are likely already near overnight lows in the mid to upper 70s and dew points will linger in the lower to mid 70s. (00Z TAFS) The remnants of an old cold front has lifted back across the Keys earlier today and will continue to provide a source for MVFR and possibly brief IFR ceilings.
High pressure remains dominant over eastern CONUS, this afternoon and Saturday, leading to sunny skies and clear nights. Lows will generally range in the low to mid 30s in valleys, and mid 40s on ridges. Highs will remain in the lower 70s Saturday, with patchy frost and fog developing again Saturday night. Lows will generally be in the mid to upper 30s in valleys, and 40s along ridges.
Thus, thinking again we will be a bit warmer than expected as we wake up on Saturday. Dewpoints values will likely also play into this and keep temperatures a bit warmer than previously thought. Otherwise, slightly tempered winds a tad and raised low temperatures into the lower to mid 40s in many areas (though a few temps as low as 39 degrees could occur in north central Alabama based on current dewpoints there).
(Tonight through Saturday) High pressure remains the most influential feature through Saturday. Low temperatures in the lower 40s are forecast tonight; however, some of the typically cooler valley locations of east/northeast Alabama could slip into the upper 30s. Saturday's high temperatures will be in the lower to middle 70s most areas with a light easterly breeze.
728 PM EDT Fri Oct 18 2024 (This evening through Saturday) Key Messages: Fall weather continues Discussion: Clear skies and seasonal temperatures continue today and tonight as we sit under high pressure near the surface and riding in the mid levels of the atmosphere. With the sunnier skies and strengthening pressure we're seeing temperatures climbing around 5-10 degrees warmer than yesterday, and just a couple of degrees off seasonal normals.
711 PM CDT Fri Oct 18 2024 (Tonight) Upper level ridging was firmly in place over the eastern CONUS, with an unseasonably deep upper low across Arizona, resulting in a troughing west/ridging east pattern. This setup, along with an area of high pressure at the surface over the western Appalachians was producing dry conditions for this region. Despite the longer nights (good for cooler temperatures), lows by daybreak Saturday should cool into the low/mid 40s.
312 AM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024 - Highs in the low to mid 70s today with mostly overcast skies.
High pressure is firmly in place building in behind an exiting cold front.
UPDATE Areas of showers continue to dry southwest to northeast within moist SW flow as the leading edge of a mid level trough and entrance region of a upper jet slowly move to the east-northeast early this evening. Guidance shows nearly zonal flow aloft for the next 7 days, with a low pressure system expected to swing to our southeast into the beginning of the week.
129 AM EDT Sat Oct 19 2024 Dry high pressure persists through the forecast period. Another very pleasant Fall day is in store Sat with the airmass modifying a little warmer as highs reach the l70s east of the mtns and mid to upper 60s across the mtn valleys.
(Today through Sunday Night) In the near term, a massive area of high pressure to our east/northeast will be the dominant weather feature. Initially, the high will be centered over the Ohio Valley before drifting toward the Tennessee Valley this weekend. Under the high, our dry pattern will continue, and there will be a slow warming trend. Temperatures on Sunday will be a couple of degrees warmer than today.
The players in this benign weather pattern include ridging aloft that extends from New England, southward into the SE U. and a vigorous cutoff low pressure trough across the Four Corners Region of the Country. Our region remains sandwiched between the two but as the day goes on today and especially into Sunday, our region will become more under the influence of the upper ridge to our east as that feature will begin retrograding back to the west. This ridging will continue to suppress any possibility of returning moisture, let alone any precipitation chances. What has been working temperature wise lately is to go slightly above NBM MOS during the day and slightly cooler at night, at least until we get some kind of returning moisture and/or some cloud cover to buffet these persistence model biases.
The large trough and upper-low are currently pushing through the region. The cold air aloft wasn't quite as cold as expected and there wasn't a deep enough uniform upslope flow to produce the kind of ascent needed to get the low-level moisture to a height for efficient snow producing processes to take place. As the trough slides east this evening into tonight any lingering precipitation will taper off once the trough axis passes through as drier air moves in and lift weakens. Model guidance is beginning to show the cut-off low getting caught back into the upper-level flow on Sunday, with this occurring a little further west in southeast WY. Then, the upper-level flow pushes the cut-off low east away from the Rockies.
314 AM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024 - High pressure over the region will bring sunny skies, light winds and temperatures in the 70s through the weekend. - Elevated fire danger is again expected today and Sunday, especially along and west of the Highway 65 corridor.
Temperatures are generally in the low to upper 40s, though some readings in the upper 30s have been noted in the Cumberland Plateau and southern Middle Tennessee. At the surface, high pressure is entrenched across the entire Ohio Valley and Southeastern United States. Aloft, an impressive ridge of high pressure extended from the Northeastern United States south to the Gulf of Mexico. An upper level low was located over the Four Corners region, but this will have zero impact on our weather in the short-term. Both Saturday and Sunday should observe highs in the 70s with Sunday being the warmer of the two days. No precipitation should be anticipated with high pressure continuing to dominate the overall weather pattern.
102 AM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024 (Tonight through Saturday night) The flow aloft over Texas this afternoon is from the southwest with a deep trough over the western US and a ridge over the east. Low level flow is from the southeast with high pressure to our northeast. An upper low will cutoff over the southwestern US and keep the southwesterly flow aloft in place. The low level flow will vary between southeasterly and easterly. Cloudiness and warm advection will lead to warmer low temperatures Saturday morning. Then decreasing clouds during the day will make highs a few degrees warmer than today. The lack of clouds will then allow for better cooling Saturday night and lows Sunday a couple of degrees cooler.
On the overnight water vapor loop and RAP analysis, the much advertised cutoff upper low was centered over northern Arizona around Flagstaff. For the rest of today, scattered to broken low-mid level cloud will be about the extent of the weather, along with our continued south winds, across southwest Kansas today, as the upper low remains cutoff and nearly stationary well to our southwest. As we head into tonight and Sunday, the mid level jet streak will rotate around the eastern periphery of the upper low, marking the beginning of the weakening phase of this low and an increase in forward motion of the low toward the New Mexico-Colorado line overnight Sunday Night.
(Today through Sunday) A 592 decameter subtropical ridge will retrograde westward over the Gulf this weekend, while ridging also builds over the central CONUS east of a cutoff low over Arizona.
1217 AM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024 (The rest of tonight) The overall pattern has not changed much over the past 24-hrs with eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas between a ridge of high pressure over the eastern CONUS and a trof developing into a closed low over the Desert Southwest. continued southeasterly flow had allowed for dewpoints to be running on average 0-5 deg warmer. and temperatures running 3-8 deg warmer than this time yesterday. temperatures again look to be close to/slightly warmer than this mornings lows with mid 30s to upper 40s forecast.
1135 PM CDT Fri Oct 18 2024 (This evening through Saturday Night) The warming trend continues through the weekend as a broad area of high pressure across the eastern third of the country keeps easterly to southeasterly flow over the region. Temperatures will add a couple of degrees Saturday as highs climb back into the lower 80s.
The cold front currently positioned over northwest Minnesota will continue its trek southeast tonight. Scattered showers will move with the cold front tonight into Saturday before dissipating. Dry low levels will fight the rainfall at first, and there will likely be virga at first, but PWATs of around 1 inch being transported from the south will be enough that the lower levels increase in moisture and will allow for rain to fall. Despite the cold front moving through tonight and Saturday, temperatures above normal will be here to stay as flow aloft quickly returns to the southwest and the warm air mass returns from the west. The strong closed upper low in the southwest will keep us locked under a high pressure in this warm, dry pattern for Sunday into the first half of the week.
(Now through Sunday night) The upper ridge over eastern North America will breakdown across eastern Canada and the northeast CONUS today as a longwave trough invades from the west. A secondary ridge will build on Sunday, with the axis centered along the Mississippi River, eastward of an upper cut-off low over the Desert Southwest. Highs Sunday should be 2 to 3 degrees warmer, ranging from 77 to 81 degrees.
Overall, this will modestly continue over the next 24 to 36 hours meaning temperatures will continue the warming trend, especially considering the higher heights and thicknesses. Through the short term, an H5 ridge will continue to spread west from Florida and move across the northern Gulf. The highest potential naturally would be during high tide cycles.
There will be just enough lingering moisture in the low levels to support isolated showers (10-20% PoPs) each day. High temperatures will remain around normal this weekend, reaching the low to mid 80s across South Florida.
1217 AM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024 (Tonight through Saturday) High pressure remains the most influential feature through Saturday. Low temperatures in the lower 40s are forecast tonight; however, some of the typically cooler valley locations of east/northeast Alabama could slip into the upper 30s. Saturday's high temperatures will be in the lower to middle 70s most areas with a light easterly breeze.
(Today through Sunday) An upper-level trough over the inter-mountain west will support southwesterly flow aloft through the short term period. Pressure gradients across the Northern Gulf continue to support increasing wave heights and long period swell along the Lower Texas Coast.
1107 PM CDT Fri Oct 18 2024 A beautiful night is on display across the Mid-South with current temperatures in the upper 40s to lower 60s as high pressure continues to dominate our weather pattern. Forecast overnight lows are in the low to mid 40s with tomorrow's highs in the low to mid 70s.
1243 AM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024 - Elevated to significant fire danger is expected today, especially along and west of the Highway 65 corridor.
A closed low will remain over Arizona this weekend. Light rain showers will continue to wrap back westward around the low into northwest Arizona today, less so Sunday. Dry and warmer conditions will persist through the upcoming week. Satellite shows the closed low over north central Arizona wobbling westward slightly since late last evening. On Sunday, a few light showers may continue to wrap back westward into northern Mohave County around the slowly weakening closed low.
Red Flag conditions will continue through the day as the pressure gradient between high pressure in the Great Basin and low pressure in the Desert Southwest continues to support offshore flow.
Mother nature gave us a little taste of what is going over the next several months yesterday, with some mountain snow and the first flakes of the season in some of the lower elevations. High pressure will be over the area today, and bring a dry but cool day.
Some differences in the strength/positioning of the ridges/troughs - evidenced in WPC clusters - but each model has shares in all 4 outcomes. A cutoff upper level low is progged to lift northeast out of the desert southwest, driving across MO/IL by 00z Wed. TEMPS: upper level ridge axis hangs over the eastern great lakes/new england states for the weekend, into the start of the work week.
(Today through Sunday Night) Ridging over the East/Central CONUS will continue to bring warm and benign weather this weekend. Overnight lows for Sunday could even be a tad cooler due to a brief ENE wind shift and lower cloud cover.
A weak wave of energy will bring cloudy conditions and slightly warmer temperatures to the region today. A short lived ridge of high pressure will bring even warmer temperatures Sunday, around 15 degrees above normal for this time of year.
The general consensus is for conditions to remain dry through at least Saturday night, with warmer afternoon temperatures for the interior Saturday. The front will actually move towards the area late Sunday afternoon, then moving inland Sunday night as the upper trough acts as a "kicker" pushing the front inland, but that won't be until Sunday night.
Discussion: Increased low-level heights will result in slightly warmer temperatures again this afternoon with a clear sky and dry weather. High pressure remains in control with light winds.
1255 AM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024 (This evening through Sunday) High pressure is expected to control the weather pattern through much of the period.
1241 AM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024 Forecast remains on track with overnight lows expected to be warmer than last night, in the 40s. Tonight our warming trend is expected to continue with lows several degrees warmer than this morning in the upper 30s to low 40s.
340 AM EDT Sat Oct 19 2024 High pressure will persist over the area through the weekend before gradually shifting towards the Mid-Atlantic Coast by midweek.
Persistent NE winds around high pressure to the north will produce hazardous coastal conditions, including a HIGH risk of rip currents with rough pounding surf. Max temps in the lower 80s both days with min temps holding in the mid to upper 60s interior and low to mid 70s coast. These features will continue a breezy/gusty NE wind flow over the area with a gradual reduction in wind speeds mid week as high pressure weakens and pressure gradient loosens but wind direction still remaining onshore. High pressure over the eastern US will remain nearly stationary while gradually weakening.
607 AM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024 (Today through Sunday Night) Ridging over the East/Central CONUS will continue to bring warm and benign weather this weekend. Overnight lows for Sunday could even be a tad cooler due to a brief ENE wind shift and lower cloud cover.
625 AM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024 (Today through Sunday Night) In the near term, a massive area of high pressure to our east/northeast will be the dominant weather feature. Initially, the high will be centered over the Ohio Valley before drifting toward the Tennessee Valley this weekend. Under the high, our dry pattern will continue, and there will be a slow warming trend. Temperatures on Sunday will be a couple of degrees warmer than today.
342 AM PDT Sat Oct 19 2024 Some high level clouds are pushing in over the forecast area this morning with temperatures trending about 7 to 10 degrees warmer compared to 24 hours ago. An upper level ridge will still linger to our south today keeping the weather rather quiet ahead of the next system Sunday As for later tonight, model guidance is suggesting a 50% chance for some precipitation along the coast in the marine stratus. By Sunday, a cold front and upper level wave will descend on southern Oregon and norther California.
/Issued 342 AM PDT Sat Oct 19 2024/ Some high level clouds are pushing in over the forecast area this morning with temperatures trending about 7 to 10 degrees warmer compared to 24 hours ago. An upper level ridge will still linger to our south today keeping the weather rather quiet ahead of the next system Sunday As for later tonight, model guidance is suggesting a 50% chance for some precipitation along the coast in the marine stratus. By Sunday, a cold front and upper level wave will descend on southern Oregon and norther California.
605 AM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024 (Today through Sunday) A 592 decameter subtropical ridge will retrograde westward over the Gulf this weekend, while ridging also builds over the central CONUS east of a cutoff low over Arizona.
945 AM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024 (Today through Sunday) An upper-level trough over the inter-mountain west will support southwesterly flow aloft through the short term period. Pressure gradients across the Northern Gulf continue to support increasing wave heights and long period swell along the Lower Texas Coast.
(Rest of Today) A rather deep low over the SW CONUS was producing deep troughing over the western states, while upper level high pressure over the Mid Atlantic region has pronounced ridging across the eastern states. High temperatures later this afternoon should rise into the low/mid 70s with light winds. Even warmer conditions are expected tomorrow with highs into the mid/upper 70s.
941 AM EDT Sat Oct 19 2024 High pressure will persist over the area through the weekend before gradually shifting towards the Mid-Atlantic Coast by midweek.
642 AM EDT Sat Oct 19 2024 High pressure will persist over the area through the weekend before gradually shifting towards the Mid-Atlantic Coast by midweek.
625 AM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024 - High pressure over the region will bring sunny skies, light winds and temperatures in the 70s through the weekend. - Elevated fire danger is again expected today and Sunday, especially along and west of the Highway 65 corridor.
High pressure continues to build over the coming days which will keep skies mostly clear besides some light cumulus this afternoon. High pressure and low PWATs will subsequently keep PoPs at or near zero.
627 AM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024 (Today through Sunday) An upper-level trough over the inter-mountain west will support southwesterly flow aloft through the short term period. Pressure gradients across the Northern Gulf continue to support increasing wave heights and long period swell along the Lower Texas Coast.
Temperatures this morning are in the lower 30s along the International Border, with mid 40s to low 50s in west central Minnesota.
Wind gusts through the passes and ridges are currently around 25-35 mph with isolated gusts to 40 mph and will begin to weaken by mid morning.
640 AM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024 - Highs in the low to mid 70s today with mostly overcast skies.
We could see a few showers develop late tonight through Sunday morning along the Rio Grande given the moist, upslope flow in the lower levels.
(This afternoon through Sunday night) Current water vapor shows an upper low slowly moving into the area across Arizona and New Mexico this afternoon. Highs end up a few degrees warmer compared to today with 70s for most and 80s for areas around and south of the I-10 corridor.
You can thank high pressure over the Eastern half of the CONUS for the benign weather. Highs for tomorrow will be slightly warmer than what was experienced today with temperatures in the 80s across much of the area. Sunday night's lows will be slightly cooler as winds briefly become ENE under mostly clear skies. 5", high pressure is continuing to produce subsident air.
1259 PM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024 (Today through Sunday Night) Ridging over the East/Central CONUS will continue to bring warm and benign weather this weekend. Overnight lows for Sunday could even be a tad cooler due to a brief ENE wind shift and lower cloud cover.
An area of high pressure will remain nearly stationary across the eastern U. The winds will decrease Wed as the high weakens but onshore flow will continue 10-15 knots.
1229 PM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024 (Today through Sunday Night) In the near term, a massive area of high pressure to our east/northeast will be the dominant weather feature. Initially, the high will be centered over the Ohio Valley before drifting toward the Tennessee Valley this weekend. Under the high, our dry pattern will continue, and there will be a slow warming trend. Temperatures on Sunday will be a couple of degrees warmer than today.
Lows this morning in the 30s and highs in the lower 70s are evidence of this.