Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Additionally, a ridge spans the eastern United States and the Atlantic ridge sits off our east northeast. This sounding, likely a product of deep layered ridging in control across our area, explains the dearth of convective activity within the forecast area through the evening. Deep layered ridging will remain in firm control. The combination of a broad low in the western Gulf of Mexico, the Atlantic ridge of to our northeast, and another high over the eastern United States together are driving gentle southeasterly breezes across Keys waters this evening.
A rex block develops as a tropical system over the western Gulf of Mexico moves northward into the Lower and Mississippi and Tennessee River valleys and a closed 500 mb high closes off over the Great Lakes.
1017 PM EDT Sun Sep 8 2024 * High pressure will remain nearly stationary over the region through the end of the week, bringing abundant sunshine and dry weather for most. In general, expect daybreak readings in the low to mid 40s. However, the cooler valleys of Laurel Highlands will likely dip into the upper 30s. Frost appears unlikely at this time, with only 20% or lower probabilities across the Laurel Highlands and in northeast PA, but in collaboration with KLWX added patchy frost over the southern portions of the Laurel Highlands where dewpoints are the lowest (mid 30s currently) and radiational cooling will be most efficient into Monday morning.
708 PM EDT Sun Sep 8 2024 - Areas of showers late tonight, mainly eastern UP/ne LP - Warmer and mainly dry through the remainder of the week Pattern Synopsis and Forecast: Compact upper wave on the backside of an upper troughs northwest flow will move into the area this evening and tonight.
Optimal radiational cooling will allow overnight lows to drop well below average for this time of year into the low 40s to low 50s range.
808 PM EDT Sun Sep 8 2024 * High pressure will remain nearly stationary over the region through the end of the week, bringing abundant sunshine and dry weather for most. In general, expect daybreak readings in the low to mid 40s. However, the cooler valleys of Laurel Highlands will likely dip into the upper 30s.
A low pressure system is expected mid- week, potentially bringing gusty winds and light rain.
644 PM CDT Sun Sep 8 2024 A ridge of high pressure will bring another cool night to the Mid-South with temperatures ranging from the upper 40s north, and lower to middle 50s south.
611 PM CDT Sun Sep 8 2024 - Temperatures climb the next several days, turning much warmer by the middle of the week. Surface analysis early this afternoon depicts high pressure centered over central Illinois, keeping things cool and dry to close out the weekend. Temperatures will climb the next few days, becoming much warmer by midweek as upper ridging builds further east and amplifies.
A surface anticyclone is anchored over the Mid MS Valley and will result in lighter winds across the region tonight. Current temperatures are running about two degrees lower than this time yesterday which suggests lows generally at or slightly cooler than we experienced this morning. Quiet weather will persist in the short-term, but we're closely monitoring Potential Tropical Cyclone Six in the Gulf of Mexico.
640 PM CDT Sun Sep 8 2024 High pressure in control brought with it fair skies and a supremely pleasant morning and with a north breeze and below normal highs in the middle 80s F this afternoon, we'll continue to enjoy this calm before the storm through tonight and into Monday. Evapotranspiration processes will allow our humidity to begin to recover a bit despite the mostly neutral moisture advection from recycled continental air and we'll be a bit warmer and more humid Monday than today. Highs likely in the upper 80s F to near 90 F with dewpoints recovering from the 40s F today to the lower 60s F particularly north of I-20.
(Today) Tranquil weather across the Tennessee Valley early this morning as we remain under the influence of an area of high pressure to our north. A cool/dry morning with temperatures in the upper 50s will give way to a fairly warm day as the ridge amplifies over the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. Despite the higher temperatures, RH values will drop into the 35-40 percent range -- making for a more comfortable feel despite the higher temperatures.
The deep upper low that brought the autumn preview of the past few days is pulling away across the northeastern CONUS. In its place, broad upper ridging across the western half of the country is moving eastward over the Plains.
Surface analysis shows the Atlantic ridge extending westward to near South Florida, with a stationary front draped across north Florida and the northern Gulf of Mexico, and a low pressure trough (Potential Tropical Cyclone Six) over the Bay of Campeche. Aloft, the subtropical ridge remains dominant at all levels across our region. 98 inches, with relatively weak lapse rates reflecting the ridge aloft.
Water vapor imagery this afternoon depicts a strong upper trough continuing to lift over Ontario as a mid-level ridge builds in over the western CONUS. At the surface, high pressure sits over the Ohio Valley as southerly winds dominate the Central Plains. The upper ridge to our west will look to push eastward ever so slightly throughout the week, bringing average to above-average high temperatures (80s to near 90) back to the region. Long-range deterministic models continue to indicate a strong upper trough making its way across the the north/west CONUS later on in the week. Aviation concerns are expected to remain on the low side through this TAF period. This will allow lee troughing to remain along with VFR conditions.
347 AM EDT Mon Sep 9 2024 High pressure across the region maintains dry conditions through the week, as temperatures slowly warm through mid week.
It will be seasonable today with most areas reaching the lower to mid 70s. Slightly cooler temperatures can be expected in the mountains with readings reaching the 60s.
Regardless, a nearly carbon-copy forecast from the past two days can be expected with high temperatures in the low to mid 80s. Similar to yesterday, the pressure gradient may tighten up due to lee troughing east of the Rockies. The calm winds and clear skies with a dry airmass in place should lead to low temperatures in the low to mid 50s.
220 AM CDT Mon Sep 9 2024 - Temperatures climb the next several days, turning much warmer by the middle of the week.
343 AM EDT Mon Sep 9 2024 - Dry weather and warmer temperatures on the way - Low confidence in tropical moisture arriving end of the week - Dry weather and warmer temperatures on the way One last short wave on the far western periphery of the upper low is dropping through the thumb region early this morning. High pressure only continuing to move in will keep cloud cover limited, and maybe even clear with little to no low level moisture floating by. Highs today will be a bit warmer than Sunday as 850 mb temps increase from around 8C to around 12 C.
Much warmer this afternoon after a chilly start to the day.
343 AM EDT Mon Sep 9 2024 High pressure across the region maintains dry conditions through the week, as temperatures slowly warm through mid week.
Water vapor imagery reveals the closed low over the eastern NOAM has shifted further east over the past day or so. This has opened a window for the western ridge to build into the central CONUS through mid-week. Surface obs highlight the return of a warmer air mass versus the previous few nights.
High pressure remain across the Ohio Valley today and tonight. A weak low pressure system associated with an upper trough across New England moves by to our north today and tonight. Except for some clouds associated with the low across NY state, skies will be mostly sunny today across the area.
Expansive ridging will continue to build across a large chunk of the CONUS today.
Still, appears that lows will drop into the 50s areawide, with the coolest readings in the lower 50s again across the low lying areas across the Hill Country, Edwards Plateau, and the Heartland. Highs on Monday will only be a degree or two warmer than what we are seeing today.
Early morning IR and water vapor satellite imagery is showing Potential Tropical Cyclone Six developing over the extreme western Gulf of Mexico, while a band of moisture extends from this system across the Gulf and northern Florida and into the Atlantic.
330 AM EDT Mon Sep 9 2024 * High pressure will remain nearly stationary over the region through the end of the week, bringing abundant sunshine and dry weather for most. In general, expect daybreak readings in the low to mid 40s. However, the cooler valleys of Somerset County will likely dip into the mid 30s with patchy frost.
Discussion: Upper ridging across the Great Plains and longwave troughing across the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic will place northwest flow and subsidence across our region. High pressure tonight will bring another night of light to calm winds with cool air over warm water resulting in steam fog near area lakes and rivers.
1208 AM CDT Mon Sep 9 2024 (Tonight through Monday night) High pressure has settled over TX today. These winds have brought cooler, drier air to South-Central Texas. Temperatures this afternoon are around five degrees cooler than 24 hours ago and dewpoints are five to ten degrees lower. High pressure will continue to dominate during the short term. The low level flow will be northeasterly to easterly. The warming trend will continue Monday night with lows about five degrees warmer.
334 AM EDT Mon Sep 9 2024 A weak trough will be nearby today into tonight. High pressure will otherwise be in control through the weekend.
(Today) After another chilly start to the day, temperatures are forecast to warm into the 80s area-wide under mostly sunny skies as high pressure prevails.
Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb closed low over eastern Quebec and a ridge over the plains into the Canadian prairies. The closed low moves into Newfoundland by 00z Tue. With ridging and high pressure returning, quiet and calm conditions are expected with some lake breezes possible in the afternoon. Cooler temps in the 60s are likely near Lake Superior in the east thanks to onshore flow. Monday night stays dry and quiet with light southerly winds, lows settle into the low to mid 50s.
153 AM CDT Mon Sep 9 2024 High pressure in control brought with it fair skies and a supremely pleasant morning and with a north breeze and below normal highs in the middle 80s F this afternoon, we'll continue to enjoy this calm before the storm through tonight and into Monday. Evapotranspiration processes will allow our humidity to begin to recover a bit despite the mostly neutral moisture advection from recycled continental air and we'll be a bit warmer and more humid Monday than today. Highs likely in the upper 80s F to near 90 F with dewpoints recovering from the 40s F today to the lower 60s F particularly north of I-20.
1119 PM CDT Sun Sep 8 2024 - Temperatures climb the next several days, turning much warmer by the middle of the week. High pressure centered nearly overhead is allowing for lighter winds than yesterday as well, limiting any mixing that would help keep temperatures from falling rapidly. 37 Surface analysis early this afternoon depicts high pressure centered over central Illinois, keeping things cool and dry to close out the weekend. Temperatures will climb the next few days, becoming much warmer by midweek as upper ridging builds further east and amplifies.
130 AM EDT Mon Sep 9 2024 * High pressure will remain nearly stationary over the region through the end of the week, bringing abundant sunshine and dry weather for most. In general, expect daybreak readings in the low to mid 40s. However, the cooler valleys of Laurel Highlands will likely dip into the upper 30s. Frost appears unlikely at this time, with only 20% or lower probabilities across the Laurel Highlands and in northeast PA, but in collaboration with KLWX added patchy frost over the southern portions of the Laurel Highlands where dewpoints are the lowest (mid 30s currently) and radiational cooling will be most efficient into Monday morning.
A rex block develops as a tropical system over the western Gulf of Mexico moves northward into the Lower and Mississippi and Tennessee River valleys and a closed 500 mb high closes off over the Great Lakes. The VAD winds remain strong in the lowest gate around 30kts and should decrease to 20kts by morning.
A cooling trend will occur across Central California as an upper level high pressure system begins to weaken over the next few days.
500 mb ridge axis is now centered over the western Dakotas with the noted short wave now beginning to crest the ridge as it exits northern Idaho. While dynamic lifting effects will be minimal the associated low-level mass response will advect a much warmer sub 500 mb airmass into the northern plains and the Dakotas to be specific. 850mb temps look to climb a few degrees into the lower 20s Celsius putting afternoon adiabatic warming potential in the mid to upper 80s.
315 AM EDT Mon Sep 9 2024 - High swim risk part of nw lower MI this morning - Warming and drying trend through much of the week - Chances for rain over eastern upper mid week Pattern/synopsis: Weak (1011mb) low pressure is over eastern Superior. Surface ridging extends from the OH Valley to IA and MN. A trof axis/weak cold front settles south across the area this morning (north of M-68) thru early/mid-afternoon, somewhat enhancing stratocu coverage in the vicinity.
857 PM PDT Sun Sep 8 2024 Warm temperatures across the region persist into Monday, before a deep upper level trough brings a major cooldown and breezy winds. An upper level trough over the Pacific Northwest is contributing to slight cooling today into Monday, with high temperatures in the upper 80s to mid 90s in the inland valleys, near 100 in the warmest spots of the Central Coast, the 70s to the low 80s in the Bayshore, and the 60s along the Pacific coast. Low temperatures hover in the 50s in the lower elevations with temperatures reaching into the upper 60s and low 70s in the higher elevations.
252 AM EDT Mon Sep 9 2024 High pressure and a dry airmass will remain in place across the region through mid week. Temperatures will warm up a bit from yesterday as mid-level ridging builds in from the southwest and H5 heights increase. Conditions will be nearly ideal for radiational cooling tonight as the lower atmosphere decouples and winds become calm.
The upper high ridge will remain centered over the Four Corners through tonight. Lee troughing will keep surface winds mostly out of the south to southeast at 10 knots or less.
High pressure will build east into the region behind the disturbance and maintain influence through much of the week. A mainly quiet near term period is in store as a large area of high pressure continues to build east across much of the Eastern CONUS. An upper trough will move east towards the Eastern Great Lakes today, though it is expected to have more broad impacts across western NY rather than our area. By this evening, the trough axis will move south across NE OH and NW PA, so could see some uptick in rain shower activity, though with the trough weakening and becoming more diffuse, confidence remains low on coverage.
120 AM EDT Mon Sep 9 2024 High pressure will be over the area this week keeping the weather dry. High pressure keeps us dry and cooler than normal again today. High pressure will continue to dominate the weather pattern across the Mid Atlantic, which should offer dry conditions throughout the first half of this work week.
1150 PM CDT Sun Sep 8 2024 (Rest of tonight) A weakening mid-level vort max will progress southeastward across the TN Valley overnight, embedded within prevailing NW flow aloft of 15-20 knots around an upper low ejecting northeastward over southern Quebec. However, during the early morning hours on Monday, boundary layer flow will begin to veer to E as the ridge expands across the southern Mid-Atlantic states.
327 AM CDT Mon Sep 9 2024 - Dry and warmer weather expected through much of the week.
614 AM EDT Mon Sep 9 2024 A trough of low pressure will remain over Eastern Canada today.
905 AM EDT Mon Sep 9 2024 High pressure sustains dry weather, with a gradual warming trend this week. Remnants of tropical cyclone may bring the next hopeful chance for rain by this weekend. After a chilly morning, a warming trend will initiate in response to an upper ridge building overhead. Ridging and high pressure in control at the surface will continue to bring dry weather and clear skies across the area today. While temperatures warm into the mid 70s to low 80s in the lowlands and mid 60s to 70s for the mountains, relative humidity (RH) is expected to fall into the 20 to 30 percent range this afternoon.
High pressure is currently centered over the Great Lakes region. An upper-level ridge will remain over the area through Tuesday, with generally quiet and warm conditions expected. By the end of the week, a strong upper-level ridge will build in, shifting eastward into the weekend.
(Now through Tuesday) Dry and cooler conditions will continue through today, but soggier weather is on the way as our attention turns to the western Gulf of Mexico and Potential Tropical Cyclone Six. For now upper troughing remains in place over the eastern CONUS with a stalled boundary sitting just offshore. Drier air has filtered into the area marked by dewpoints in the low 60s and upper 50s across the area. Things begin to change as we head into Tuesday and Tuesday night as Potential Tropical Cyclone Six begins its northward trek across the western Gulf.
(Rest of Today) Current temps are gradually climbing into the lower/mid 60s this Mon morning, from their earlier lows mainly in the mid 50s/near 60F. This cloud cover should diminish over the next few hrs, as high pressure settles more into the OH Valley states, while weak upper ridging builds eastward into much of the region. With the oncoming ridge pattern, afternoon highs will climb more into the mid/upper 80s, which is a few degrees higher compared to the last couple of days.
Expect dry and steadily cooler weather for the remainder of the week.
The boost in humidity also means overnight low temps tonight will be a few degrees warmer than the 50s/60s start to this morning.
957 AM EDT Mon Sep 9 2024 High pressure across the region maintains dry conditions through the week, as temperatures slowly warm through mid week.
High temperatures will stay in the 80s today with a few locations east of I-35 climbing into the lower 90s tomorrow. The one region that will begin to see a gradual increase in moisture will be across East Texas where moisture transport will be slightly higher due to the proximity of Potential Tropical Cyclone #6.
641 AM EDT Mon Sep 9 2024 High pressure and a dry airmass will remain in place across the region through mid week. Temperatures will warm up a bit from yesterday as mid-level ridging builds in from the southwest and H5 heights increase. Conditions will be nearly ideal for radiational cooling tonight as the lower atmosphere decouples and winds become calm.
Today: Sunny and Warmer Synoptic split flow is well established across the region early this morning, resulting in another day of sunny skies. With increasing warm air advection in the lower boundary layer, highs today return back to about 5 degrees above normal. Tuesday: Fleeting Risk for Showers Early morning water vapor imagery depicts a compact but pronounced vort lobe embedded within the longwave ridging pattern over western Nebraska.
934 AM EDT Mon Sep 9 2024 High pressure and a dry airmass will remain in place across the region through mid week. Conditions will be nearly ideal for radiational cooling tonight as the lower atmosphere decouples and winds become calm.
631 AM EDT Mon Sep 9 2024 High pressure sustains dry weather, with a gradual warming trend this week. Remnants of tropical cyclone may bring the next hopeful chance for rain by this weekend. After a chilly morning, a warming trend will initiate in response to an upper ridge building overhead. Ridging and high pressure in control at the surface will continue to bring dry weather and clear skies across the area today. While temperatures warm into the mid 70s to low 80s in the lowlands and mid 60s to 70s for the mountains, relative humidity (RH) is expected to fall into the 20 to 30 percent range this afternoon.
500 mb ridge axis is now centered over the western Dakotas with the noted short wave now beginning to crest the ridge as it exits northern Idaho. While dynamic lifting effects will be minimal the associated low-level mass response will advect a much warmer sub 500 mb airmass into the northern plains and the Dakotas to be specific. 850mb temps look to climb a few degrees into the lower 20s Celsius putting afternoon adiabatic warming potential in the mid to upper 80s. Beyond the piddly wave early in the week and above average temps for the period only other forecast note is the development of more progressive western troughing by the end of the week.
Sfc ridging will remain in place over the state today while an H500 trough across the eastern US will continue to shift eastward. Highs will be a couple degrees warmer than yesterday, but still below normal for this time of year.
and Tuesday Dry weather is expected today as ridging builds in across the Great Lakes. Upper level ridging will keep the weather dry tonight with mostly clear skies expected. Although upper level ridging will remain across the Great Lakes on Tuesday, a weak mid level PV anomaly will track across the US/Canada border towards the Great Lakes region.
Morning lows will bottom out in the 50s with highs generally in the low to mid 80s.
914 AM EDT Mon Sep 9 2024 A trough of low pressure will remain over Eastern Canada today.
551 AM EDT Mon Sep 9 2024 A weak trough will be nearby today into tonight. High pressure will otherwise be in control through the weekend.
main concern will be a fairly potent trough moving in late in the week. Looking at the end of the forecast period, ensemble guidance products want to bring a more potent trough to the region which will have a better threat of bringing some moisture (and a cooling trend) to the region. Isolated -shra/-trsa over the higher terrain brings a low risk of occurrence at the terminals through 02Z, with PUB seeing the best chances of breezy outflow winds this evening.
main concern will be a fairly potent trough moving in late in the week. Looking at the end of the forecast period, ensemble guidance products want to bring a more potent trough to the region which will have a better threat of bringing some moisture (and a cooling trend) to the region.
249 AM PDT Mon Sep 9 2024 Any chances of light showers over the Idaho Panhandle will diminish overnight as weak low pressure exits the region. Noticeably cooler temperatures will settle over the region starting late Tuesday as larger low pressure system descends on the Pacific northwest.
Issued 415 AM CDT Mon Sep 9 2024 Today through Tuesday: Quiet conditions continue today beneath high pressure. Warm advection and warm 925 to 850mb temperatures should allow our daytime highs to reach the low 80s over most of southern WI. Tuesday's highs will be a few degrees warmer and skies will be features some scattered mid level clouds as a thermal ridge at 850mb and 700mb moves over the Upper Mississippi Valley. CAMs show showers over west central WI with this thermal ridge, but we'll likely remain dry as the ridge will lose its strength as it leans into southeast WI late in the day and dry air will be present from the surface to 700mb.
Weak low pressure will track across Lake Huron today, dragging a cold front through the airspace this evening. Short wave impulses rotating across Lake Huron this morning and will drive a weak sfc cold front into Se Mi this afternoon. The earlier passage of the trough axis across the thumb will veer winds toward the north late in the day, leading to a subtle late day cooling trend in this area.
423 AM PDT Mon Sep 9 2024 Noticeably cooler temperatures will settle over the region starting late Tuesday as larger low pressure system descends on the Pacific northwest.
515 AM EDT Mon Sep 9 2024 A trough of low pressure will remain over Eastern Canada today.