Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
(This evening through Tuesday Night) The upper level trough over the ArkLaTex today will nudge its way eastward overnight, gradually taking our scattered showers and storms with it. If the trough, as depicted in the latest GFS, amplifies south and west on its eastward journey, it may aid in the continuation and redevelopment of showers and storms across central to north central Louisiana through Tuesday afternoon.
High pressure over the region will contribute to above normal temperatures by the middle of the week, leading to moderate heat risk across lower elevations. A weak trough is passing over the area with minimal moisture, though some higher clouds from this can be seen on satellite across portions of far Northern California. After the weak trough passes through the region on Tuesday, an area of high pressure to the south will start to amplify over the Desert Southwest.
An upper trough will approach eastern Kentucky slowly from the west through Tuesday evening, before crossing the area Tuesday night. Deep southwesterly flow will increase as the trough approaches, increasing moisture transport across the forecast area. The slow- moving nature of the trough and the increasing moisture advection supports an increased excessive rainfall risk, with the Weather Prediction Center issuing a Slight Risk for excessive rainfall for parts of northeastern and eastern Kentucky for Tuesday into Tuesday night, with the Marginal Risk continuing through this afternoon and evening.
(This evening through Tuesday night) An H5 trough remains over the region with mostly southwesterly upper flow across the region as a ridge sits over the Florida Peninsula.
Composite satellite analysis places an expansive high pressure system centered in the central North Atlantic, extending westward all the way to the Gulf. The axis of the associated low-level ridge is currently bisecting the Florida Peninsula. Further aloft, a mid- and upper-level ridge remains firmly planted, bridging from the central Gulf eastward to the western North Atlantic.
1119 AM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025 (Rest of Today and Tonight) A warm and humid day is ahead as deep southerly flow persists ahead of the mid/upper trough positioned in the Ozarks through east TX. We will also be watching a weak impulse drawn northeast ahead of the trough that will produce a band of thunderstorms this afternoon in central and northern MS while another cluster develops in southern MS.
A persistent ridge will dominate the weather pattern across South Texas for the next few days, leading to warm and humid conditions with a moderate to major heat risk.
1121 AM MDT Mon Jun 16 2025 - Weak low pressure will bring a threat of precipitation and thunderstorms to areas from Sun Valley north to the Montana border on Monday.
- Lower rain/storm chances Tue-Thu as high pressure builds. Drier air moving in from the south around the ridge axis will keep most dry along the coast south of the Cape.
Warmer temperatures and minor HeatRisk concerns mid week.
Arends Ensembles are in good agreement that we will be transitioning to a drier and warmer pattern through the middle to latter part of the week.
Upper-level ridging remains situated across Central Florida and stretches east into the Atlantic.
Mid afternoon surface analysis had a ridge nosing west across the northern Gulf. The local microburst checklist showed a slight chance this afternoon but some of the early convection has held temperatures a little cooler than expected so far. The early start to convection and associated cloud cover will help afternoon highs cooler than normal.
221 PM EDT Mon Jun 16 2025 Atlantic high pressure will continue to build across the Southeast through the week. A cold front could approach the region late week. A fairly strong cap is in place today as the upper ridge continues to build west from the Atlantic. Dry conditions expected overnight with lows in the low to mid 70s. Mid level ridge will extend across the Southeast through much of the period, with a trough approaching late. At the surface, the forecast area will remain on the western periphery of high pressure.
- A strong low pressure system from the Pacific coast will favor the return of strong thunderstorms this weekend.
The shear profiles is weaker (0-6km roughly 25-30kts) with winds 10kts or less in the lowest 10kft, meaning a limited severe weather threat if any.
/22/ The moist airmass remains entrenched over the area with a broad upper level trough draped over the area. Highs will be nice and subdued thanks to persistent cloud coverage/showers with only a few eastern sites break 90F today, while everywhere else peaks in the high 80s.
High pressure center is located over the southeastern corner of the state from water vapor imagery. A Pacific trough will be moving inland through the rest of the day.
Incrsg low-lvl WAA and amplifying H500 ridging wl setup a favorable pattern for the warmest temperatures of the season locally. By mid to late this week, daily high temps are expected to climb to the low to mid 90s at most locations, alongside sultry dewpoint temperatures in the low to mid 70s, resulting in "air you can wear".
817 PM MDT Mon Jun 16 2025 - Cooler by Tuesday as a storm system moves through.
Meanwhile, an east to southeast wind is once again keeping temperatures in the lower 80s with dew points in the mid 70s.
720 PM EDT Mon Jun 16 2025 - Lower rain/storm chances Tue-Thu as high pressure builds. Drier air moving in from the south around the ridge axis will keep most dry along the coast south of the Cape.
628 PM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025 (This evening through Tuesday night) An H5 trough remains over the region with mostly southwesterly upper flow across the region as a ridge sits over the Florida Peninsula.
616 PM MDT Mon Jun 16 2025 - Weak low pressure brings a threat of precipitation and thunderstorms to portions of the Central Mountains and along the Divide this afternoon and evening.
856 PM EDT Mon Jun 16 2025 Bermuda high pressure keeps hot and humid weather in place during the first half of the work week.
Isolated showers and non-severe thunderstorms developed this afternoon near a cold front through Salmon/ID - Ontario/OR - Burns/OR. The front was moving ESE ahead of a Pacific upper trough moving onto the coast. All this will end tonight, and Tuesday will be sunny and slightly cooler as the upper trough moves through.
Today, ridging has remained in place over the state, with continued southeast boundary layer flow.
758 PM EDT Mon Jun 16 2025 Atlantic high pressure will continue to build across the Southeast through the week. A cold front could approach the region late week. Once activity shifts offshore early-mid evening, the bulk of hires guidance maintains dry conditions across the local area as Atlantic ridging persists over the Southeast through the night. In general, low temps will range in the low-mid 70s inland to upper 70s/around 80 along the beaches. Mid level ridge will extend across the Southeast through much of the period, with a trough approaching late. At the surface, the forecast area will remain on the western periphery of high pressure.
Latest WV loop shows quite a bit of drier air in the lower atmosphere pushing in behind the MCV but we remain modestly unstable with MLCAPE values of 500-1000 J/KG across the forecast area. Convection is beginning to fire in the higher terrain of central Montana and northern Wyoming.
1051 PM EDT Mon Jun 16 2025 Atlantic high pressure will continue to build across the Southeast through the week. A cold front could approach the region late week. Once this occurs, the bulk of hires guidance maintains dry conditions across the local area as Atlantic ridging persists over the Southeast through the night. In general, low temps will range in the low-mid 70s inland to upper 70s/around 80 along the beaches. Mid level ridge will extend across the Southeast through much of the period, with a trough approaching late. At the surface, the forecast area will remain on the western periphery of high pressure.
Today will see continued isolated to scattered shower and thunderstorms activity as another H5 trough moves NE through the Lower TN River Valley.
Warmer temperatures and minor HeatRisk today and Wednesday.
- Temporarily a bit cooler, in the 80s, Wednesday.
The ridge strengthens on Wednesday, keeping hot temperatures through the rest of the week. Strong ridging remains the main story, keeping hot temperatures around through the rest of the week. Temperatures will be around 5-10 degrees above normal, with the hottest temperatures expected in the lower elevations of Yavapai County and areas below 4000 feet in the Grand Canyon.
A trough dropping through the northern stream will bring another wave along the international border bringing the greatest potential for storm chances later Wednesday into Wednesday night. A larger trough then to develop across the northwestern US into the weekend with southwest flow setting up across the Northern Plains.
An upper trof oriented roughly along the lower/mid Mississippi River valley weakens while shifting a bit eastward through Wednesday, with a more substantial upper trof meanwhile developing over the central states which begins to progress into the eastern states Wednesday night. Shear values remain generally low through the period, but the higher DCAPE/CAPE values indicate the potential for strong gusty winds with the stronger storms, and will need to monitor for the potential of locally heavy rains as well. Lows tonight and Wednesday night range from the lower 70s inland to the mid/upper 70s at the coast.
Temperatures are in the low to upper 80s with low 70s dew points across W/C MN and upper 70s with low 70s dew points in E MN and W WI. Our attention turns to the next round of thunderstorms slated to develop mid-late afternoon along & ahead of a surface cold front across western Minnesota. For the rest of the forecast period - the pattern will remain active across the Upper Midwest but weâll experience a bit of a lull Tuesday & Wednesday as slightly drier air settles in behind the cold front tonight into Tuesday. Global guidance signals an impressive mid level ridge building into the Great Lakes region for the weekend.
Mid level shear axis may activate a weak low level trough and moisture axis for a few showers/storms later this afternoon through Tuesday morning, mainly along and south of the US 24 corridor. 7-2" PWAT air becomes better established within increasing low-mid level southwest flow preceding an approaching mid level trough and associated sfc frontal wave.
Strong high pressure dominating the region will result in above average temperatures across the valley. There is some weak trough transitioning over northern California, which will allow for somewhat cooler high temperatures through tomorrow, and generally in the mid 90s across the San Joaquin Valley.
THIS AFTERNOON: 2pm analysis indicates a cold front continue to push eastward through eastern South Dakota, stretching from east of Watertown towards Gregory. The tornadic threat remains on the low side, but some preference towards discrete cells in SW Minnesota. The placement of the low-lvl boundaries and instability would place greatest track potential through Nebraska. We'll remain cooler on Tuesday, with afternoon showers and isolated thunderstorms continuing through the afternoon. WEDNESDAY: An upper trough continues to pivot through the Central and Northern Plains Wednesday, keeping the area cool with occasional showers during the day Wednesday.
1224 AM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025 (Tonight through Wednesday) Low pressure will develop and strengthen over the Ohio Valley and move northeast. A mid level jet around this low will move across the area this afternoon. With low and mid level flow prevailing out of the southwest and the higher winds with the jet, plenty of warm and moist air will be advected, with PW values max climatologically for this time of year.
(Today through Wednesday night) A hot day is in store for Tuesday as an upper-level trough approaches the Panhandles. Clouds and/or a cold front is favored to move into the northern combined Panhandles in the mid to late afternoon which will help keep temperatures in the low to mid-90s. The better chance for showers and thunderstorms will be along and behind the cold frontal passage as more favorable low-level moisture will move in, along with stronger forcing. Expecting dry weather and slightly below normal temperatures across the Panhandles on Wednesday behind the cold front, with temperatures largely in the mid-80s to around 90 degrees.
(Tonight through Wednesday) Low pressure will develop and strengthen over the Ohio Valley and move northeast. A mid level jet around this low will move across the area this afternoon. With low and mid level flow prevailing out of the southwest and the higher winds with the jet, plenty of warm and moist air will be advected, with PW values max climatologically for this time of year.
330 AM EDT Tue Jun 17 2025 Atlantic high pressure will continue to build across the Southeast through the week. A cold front could approach the region late week, though most indications are for the front to stall to our northwest. The center of a 593 DM ridge will remain off the GA coast through this afternoon. At the sfc, the forecast area will remain between a high centered over the western Atlantic and a developing lee trough. Given strong insolation, late sea breeze, and very mild llvl thicknesses, high temperatures are forecast to range in the low to mid 90s.
(Today through Wednesday) A flattened ridge axis over Central TX will warm up our region nicely while a zonal pattern from North TX into the Central Plains will contribute to a breezy south wind in the short term.
(Through tonight ) Afternoon weak isolated convection across northwest Arkansas will gradually diminish as the upper trough digs eastward.
Stratiform rain remains over portions of northern Alabama and southern middle Tennessee and will likely continue through the next couple of hours ahead of an upper level trough dipping through the Mississippi Valley.
39", which is in the lowest 5% of historical observations for the month of June. Clear skies and dry air will likely lead to a chilly morning, but near normal 850 mb temperature should keep the low temperature records safe tonight. (This evening through Tuesday) A weak upper level trough continues to track across the PacNW and northern CA today, with upper level ridging beginning to build in for Tuesday.
Areas near south of I-70, near the KS/MO border seem to be the most favorable due to the higher CAPE values. As the main trough makes its final push through the area, a round of strong to severe storms is possible.
1129 PM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025 (This evening through Tuesday night) An H5 trough remains over the region with mostly southwesterly upper flow across the region as a ridge sits over the Florida Peninsula.
Temperatures across the island chain are currently in the lower 80s with dew points in the lower to mid 70s. Due to a large high pressure positioned over Florida and stretching into the Gulf, weather conditions are expected to remain similar through the remainder of the work week. The low- level ridge above Florida will maintain moderate east to southeast winds, featuring nighttime surges and daytime lulls. With the steady wind pattern, overnight lows will continue in the lower 80s and highs climbing into the upper 80s, accompanied by dew points in the mid 70s. There still is uncertainty on if a cut-off low, currently over the eastern Bahamas, will make it in to our area, therefore have opted to only go to low chance through the weekend.
A quasi-stationary boundary remains so overtop the PAH FA, and it will serve as a focus for our warm sector overrunning pool of updrafts tapping good source moisture with dew points in the lower half 70s. Strong ridging aloft will help temperatures warm into the lower to middle 90s, and with no break in 70F+ dew points, this will push the HI's into triple digits that may well last into new week, as the 8-14 Day outlook continues a slight heat risk.
337 AM EDT Tue Jun 17 2025 Bermuda high pressure keeps hot and humid weather in place through midweek.
126 AM EDT Tue Jun 17 2025 Atlantic high pressure will continue to build across the Southeast through the week. A cold front could approach the region late week. Otherwise, conditions across the forecast area will feature mostly clear sky and steady southwest winds/ In general, low temps will range in the low-mid 70s inland to upper 70s/around 80 along the beaches. Mid level ridge will extend across the Southeast through much of the period, with a trough approaching late. At the surface, the forecast area will remain on the western periphery of high pressure.
/Issued 1216 AM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025/ /Overnight through Wednesday/ A warm and humid night is expected across Central and North Texas tonight with temperatures in the mid 70s and dewpoints just a few degrees cooler. Hot and humid conditions will continue through mid week as weak ridging spreads through the Southern Plains. This weak ridging will spread eastward on Wednesday and we'll see a lowering of mid level heights and slightly cooler afternoon highs as a result. A cold front will slide southward through the Plains on Wednesday afternoon where scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop.
Ridging aloft transiting into central CONUS will support dry air advection into the mid-layers, limiting moisture depth.
1028 PM MDT Mon Jun 16 2025 - Weak low pressure brings a threat of precipitation and thunderstorms to portions of the Central Mountains and along the Divide this afternoon and evening.
140 AM EDT Tue Jun 17 2025 - Lower rain/storm chances Tue-Thu as high pressure builds. Drier air moving in from the south around the ridge axis will keep most dry along the coast south of the Cape.
558 AM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025 - Seasonal temperatures are expected for the rest of the week along with heat indices in the lower 100s.
638 AM EDT Tue Jun 17 2025 Bermuda high pressure keeps hot and humid weather in place through midweek.
612 AM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025 An upper trof oriented roughly along the lower/mid Mississippi River valley weakens while shifting a bit eastward through Wednesday, with a more substantial upper trof meanwhile developing over the central states which begins to progress into the eastern states Wednesday night. Shear values remain generally low through the period, but the higher DCAPE/CAPE values indicate the potential for strong gusty winds with the stronger storms, and will need to monitor for the potential of locally heavy rains as well. Lows tonight and Wednesday night range from the lower 70s inland to the mid/upper 70s at the coast.
600 AM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025 (Today through Wednesday) A flattened ridge axis over Central TX will warm up our region nicely while a zonal pattern from North TX into the Central Plains will contribute to a breezy south wind in the short term.
619 AM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025 (Today through Wednesday) Low pressure will develop and strengthen over the Ohio Valley and move northeast. A mid level jet around this low will move across the area this afternoon. With low and mid level flow prevailing out of the southwest and the higher winds with the jet, plenty of warm and moist air will be advected, with PW values max climatologically for this time of year.
651 AM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025 The synoptic upper-level pattern continues to feature a weakness between two ridges across the country.
Dunn Previous Discussion: /Overnight through Wednesday/ A warm and humid night is expected across Central and North Texas tonight with temperatures in the mid 70s and dewpoints just a few degrees cooler. Hot and humid conditions will continue through mid week as weak ridging spreads through the Southern Plains. This weak ridging will spread eastward on Wednesday and we'll see a lowering of mid level heights and slightly cooler afternoon highs as a result. A cold front will slide southward through the Plains on Wednesday afternoon where scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop.
The highest chances remain across SW FL terminals during the late afternoon and evening hours.
728 AM EDT Tue Jun 17 2025 Atlantic high pressure will continue to build across the Southeast through the week. A cold front could approach the region late week, though most indications are for the front to stall to our northwest. The center of a 593 DM ridge will remain off the GA coast through this afternoon. At the sfc, the forecast area will remain between a high centered over the western Atlantic and a developing lee trough. Given strong insolation, late sea breeze, and very mild llvl thicknesses, high temperatures are forecast to range in the low to mid 90s.
pdf Another day of afternoon and evening sea breeze convection preceded by seasonally warm highs in the lower 90s with heat index values in the 100-105 deg range. 6 inches across SE GA and edging northward from central FL under a 1000-700 mb ridge axis, while a ribbon of deeper PWAT of 1. Boundary collisions will focus the higher chances of afternoon and early evening storms in the 4 pm to 9 pm time-frame across interior locations near Highway 301 and I-10 corridors.
353 AM PDT Tue Jun 17 2025 High pressure to the south will maintain above average high temperatures through Wednesday, as much as 10 to 15 degrees above average for the deserts.
439 AM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025 The synoptic upper-level pattern continues to feature a weakness between two ridges across the country.
- Warmer and drier mid to late week. (This afternoon through Monday night) Water vapor imagery depicts low to mid-level high pressure situated over northern Mexico, southern New Mexico, and west Texas. An approaching inverted trough enters the region from the east this afternoon and will bring low to medium (10- 30%) chances of rain across the eastern Permian Basin, Lower Trans Pecos, and Big Bend this afternoon as well. Expect highs ranging from the low 80s (in the mountains) to low 90s for most. The aforementioned inverted trough continues over the area Monday, bringing additional (10-30%) chances of showers and thunderstorms. The greatest chances (20- 30%) for showers and thunderstorms appear to be confined to the higher terrain as southeasterly upslope flow continues.
A cutoff area of low pressure is currently progressing southward along the Pacific coast, and will come to a standstill around 200 miles from Monterey Bay overnight into tomorrow. At the same time, an area of high pressure is building over the Four Corners region. The combination of these synoptic features will cause the flow over central California to propagate from the southwest, driving warmer but near-average temperatures to the region through midweek. The orientation of the low is expected to cause stronger winds to develop in the lee side and wind-prone areas of the region Monday afternoon.
Pattern-wise, the set-up looks very familiar to mid to late June, where troughing and stalled fronts remain mostly to our north.
- Storms may increase from the north during the middle of the week as a trough swings southward. The region of high pressure located in northwest Mexico and parts of the Desert Southwest will continue to intensify and help keep areas of East Texas dry tomorrow.
Transition in progress today from heat to humidity, with enough ridging still present aloft for temps to reach the lower to mid 90s. For Monday and Monday night, a cold front will sag just far enough into southern Indiana to focus scattered to numerous showers and storms, especially in the heat of the afternoon. Clouds and precip will limit temps but we will only be a few degrees cooler than today, with slightly higher dewpoints. Dog days of summer will be in full force most of the week, with weak upper trofiness in between the Bermuda ridge to the east and a Four Corners ridge to the west.
- An upper level trough will move through the mid-Mississippi River Valley during the midweek.
Meanwhile, a mid/upper trough continues its slow westward trek across the Gulf. We think the trough will be close enough to our region on Monday to increase large scale lift, increasing the chance and coverage of scattered showers and thunderstorms.