Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
611 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024 - Cold front moves through tonight bringing drier, more comfortable weather for tomorrow.
803 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024 - A departing cold front will trigger scattered showers and thunderstorms across east-central Illinois this afternoon into early this evening. with the highest probability of rain focused along/east of I-57.
High pressure over the region will continue the warming trend through today, most pronounced away from the coast.
Dewpoints have dropped to more tolerable values compared to yesterday (generally in the lower to mid 60s) for areas north of the front. Dewpoints are still in the lower to mid 70s south of the front, continuing the hot and humid trend across Central Texas with current heat indices near 100. Another weak cold front will sag south through Oklahoma Thursday afternoon, which may kick off an isolated storm or two along the Red River Thursday afternoon and evening.
The pre-frontal trough is passing through Indy at the moment, and convection will remain mainly east of the trough into the evening. There may be a few lingering showers across southern Indiana through the early overnight hours, but generally expect dry conditions through the night with clearing skies as high pressure begins to move in behind the exiting cold front.
629 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024 - Temperatures may warm up into the 90s for many locations across the area this afternoon with a cold front coming later today.
Behind this, can expect light to moderate stratiform rain with occasional thunder through the early overnight hours, with activity coming to an end from west to east by morning ahead of an approaching cold front.
High pressure and hot interior temperatures will continue through Thursday. High pressure will remain over the area through Thursday, bringing hot temperatures to the interior. Heat risk will be greatest in Lake County and NE Trinity where the strong inversion will help keep overnight low temps in the lower to mid 70s.
A broken cloud line sputtered along and west of the Lower Keys, with all associated shower activity remaining offshore of the island chain. Should they interact, given the relatively uncapped environment owed to very weak mid- level ridging, isolated brief showers cannot be ruled out. Temperatures will generally only dip into the lower 80s for the overnight period, although should winds collapse a bit more than expected, a few upper 70s to near 80F readings cannot be ruled out in the favored larger island communities. A weak area of high pressure centered southwest of Bermuda will slowly slide eastward in the North Atlantic, resulting in light to gentle east to southeast breezes through Thursday night.
Cyclonic flow over the Great Lakes is the main weather story for today, and the resulting gusty northwest winds, slightly cooler temperatures and a few light showers across parts of the area. A 35-kt 850 mb jet on the west side of the Great Lakes upper low will favor gusts as high as 40 mph across much of the area later this morning through the afternoon, with the highest gusts over western and southwest Minnesota where boundary layer mixing will be deeper.
Pattern Synopsis: Strong, amplified troughing with downstream blocking will continue to pivot over the Great Lakes today and tonight. As the system becomes increasingly vertically stacked with time, the associated surface cyclone will gradually weaken as it spins over Ontario. Primary hazards with this low-topped activity will be lightning, small hail, and brief heavy downpours. Otherwise, cooler temperatures will be in place today with highs staying in the mid 60s to low 70s for most. Pattern Synopsis and Forecast: A deep upper level closed low continues to move east Friday, gradually taking rain chances with. West to northwest flow and generally cloudy skies should keep temperatures cooler.
Otherwise, high pressure building in and dry weather is expected on Thursday. This quiet pattern is thanks to an upper level ridge that has begun to build into the PacNW from the Desert Southwest. The upper level ridge will continue to strengthen over the PacNW through Friday, producing mostly light winds and warming temperatures in the forecast area.
The front remains back to our northwest over Arkansas, with showers developing along a prefrontal trough over Mississippi. A cold pool remains over the area and convective overturning as occurred, but pre-frontal troughs will cause chances of showers and possible thunderstorms to linger. Will have to monitor for any fog development given the rainfall if the low clouds do not develop soon enough.
407 AM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024 Humidity and storm coverage will increase today before a weak cold front moves through early Friday.
(Today through Friday) An upper level ridge builds over our area today into Friday bringing a drier airmass aloft.
Drier air will continue to filter into western Washington as high pressure builds over the region, allowing for skies to continue to clear. High pressure builds over the region today, bringing a warming and drying trend to western Washington for the second half of the week.
Much warmer temperatures and mainly dry conditions are expected through Friday as high pressure builds over the Southwest. Tranquil weather conditions are taking place across northern Arizona as a high pressure ridge strengthens over much of the western half of the country. Global models show the ridge axis migrating eastward on Thursday, resulting in a switch to light south to southeast flow. Due to the sufficient surface heating expected and lack of surface moisture, any showers and/or thunderstorms that do develop over the high terrain will likely be on the dry side with lightning and gusty outflow winds (30-40 mph) being the main threats.
For Friday, the aforementioned deep trough continues migrating eastward, while an associated sfc frontal boundary pushes southward across the SE CONUS. This will begin veering winds across SoFlo to the S/SW and advect warmer air from the south.
Current upper air analysis depicts upper low centered over MB/ON with 300 mb jet streak over ND/MN/eastern SD.
134 AM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024 A cold front will bring showers and thunderstorms tonight. High pressure will provide drier weather on Thursday and Friday. The evening continues to be active as showers and storms move through the ILN CWA ahead of the cold front (still currently stretching through central Indiana). Previous discussion--> Showers and thunderstorms have been developing ahead of a cold front situated over Indiana. Lows are forecast to range from the low 60s in the west to the upper 60s southeast. Cold front will be east, while high pressure settles to the west. Temperatures will be slightly cooler on Thursday with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s.
1153 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024 - A departing cold front will trigger scattered showers and thunderstorms across east-central Illinois this afternoon into early this evening. with the highest probability of rain focused along/east of I-57.
Temperatures are hovering in the lower to mid 80s, with dewpoints in the mid to upper 70s, and winds on land from the southeast around 5 mph. Surface analysis depicts weak high pressure over the western Atlantic, with a cold front extending from the Great Lakes southward into central Texas. Aloft, water vapor imagery shows a mid level trough moving across the Lower Mississippi Valley and the northern Gulf, with zonal flow downstream over Florida, and the subtropical ridge suppressed southward into the Caribbean Sea. 76 inches, although a fair amount of dry air was present in the lower and especially in the mid levels above the inversion. The mid level trough initially over the northern Gulf will continue to drop slowly SE across Florida through the end of the work week and into the weekend.
Looks like the best coverage will be ahead of the front so trended with the higher PoPs across the south and east through the afternoon. For Friday we will see more sunshine as high pressure moves in behind a second front.
A 500mb ridge will build in the west, putting us in NW flow from the weekend onward.
1110 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024 A cold front will push through tonight bringing an end to rain chances. Chances for showers and thunderstorms increase again this weekend as another cold front moves through the region.
353 AM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024 - Windy conditions are expected again today with gusts up to around 40 mph, the highest gusts over northern Iowa.
An upper level low will be brushing through the Arrowhead today pulling in some breezy northwest winds upwards of 30mph. The cooler northwest winds combined with the cloud cover today will lead to some lower then usual temps with highs in the upper 50s and lower 60s. Tomorrow: The upper level low shifts east towards Lake Huron on Friday allowing for weak surface ridging to build in. As we move into the evening hours a low pressure sliding southeast across the Northern Plains will bring some rain chances across the Brainerd Lakes region.
1223 AM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024 Humidity and storm coverage will increase through Thursday before a cold front moves through early Friday.
1210 AM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024 - Cold front moves through tonight bringing drier, more comfortable weather for tomorrow.
An upper level low pressure system will expand across the northern Great Lakes Thursday. The low will sustain a strong westerly gradient across the southern lakes.
1133 PM MDT Wed Jun 5 2024 Warm and dry weather is expected through the end of the week as upper level ridging begins to set up across the West, with just a few isolated showers over the higher terrain south of I-90.
(Today and tonight) The upper pattern isn't much to write about this morning as a broad dome of high pressure jostles east toward New Mexico resulting in rising heights and anemic northwest flow over much of our area. The lower levels meanwhile turn more interesting thanks to a fetch of moist southerlies aiding in PWATs around 130 percent of normal and a weak cold front forecast to settle near I40 later this afternoon. One factor that may help sustain convection after sunset is a modest theta-e ridge and LLJ expanding over the South Plains in response to low- level winds backing SE and moistening.
A cold front will push on through our region this evening. Dew points in the lower to middle 60s in the morning will drop into the 50s by late afternoon. Gradually cooler conditions will follow, with highs Friday in the lower to middle 80s, and readings over the weekend in the upper 70s to around 80 degrees, which is 3 to 6 degrees below normal. Over the weekend, an upper low sitting over the Great Lakes region will put the PAH fa in northwest flow.
1145 PM MDT Wed Jun 5 2024 Hot temperatures are expected into Friday with afternoon highs 100 to 108 degrees in the lowlands. Very hot temperatures are expected Thursday, and most likely continue into Friday as an upper high pressure builds into the region. A Heat advisory along the Lower Rio Grande continues into Thursday and will likely be extended Friday. There is the potential for very strong downdrafts and microbursts into Friday, with very dry air in the low/mid levels.
Low pressure is noted over the area on satellite tonight and a thermal trough is also noted over eastern parts of the area. /DC/ Storm chances will come to an end Thursday night as a cold front continues to push south across central MS. Quiet conditions will continue on Friday as the aforementioned cold front stalls out in the vicinity of the Hwy 84 corridor.
A cold front will push through the midstate tonight with a few showers possible along the front, before a much drier and cooler airmass arrives behind the boundary. Friday looks spectacular for early June with highs only in the mid 70s to low 80s, comfortable humidity with low dewpoints in the low to mid 50s, and no rain in sight. Friday night looks equally nice with the low dewpoints allowing min temps to drop into the 50s to around 60.
334 AM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024 Showers and isolated thunderstorms will end this morning as a cold front exits the region. A secondary trough will result in a few more scattered showers and possible thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. An unsettled weather pattern is then expected through the weekend under a persistent upper trough. Partial clearing and dry weather is then expected into early afternoon as surface ridging briefly builds in. KEY MESSAGES: - Persistent upper trough maintains an unsettled pattern - Cooler temperatures expected ------------------------------------------------------------------- Isolated evening showers and thunderstorms should end tonight as the reinforcing trough completes its passage.
1257 AM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024 Low pressure is noted over the area on satellite tonight and a thermal trough is also noted over eastern parts of the area. /DC/ Storm chances will come to an end Thursday night as a cold front continues to push south across central MS. Quiet conditions will continue on Friday as the aforementioned cold front stalls out in the vicinity of the Hwy 84 corridor.
359 AM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024 - Breezy northwest winds with gusts up into the lower 40s possible. Strongest gusts are expected along the Buffalo Ridge given their elevated elevation.
We are also seeing cooler temperatures around 500mb ranging from -7 to -10C. For our Friday we are seeing an upper level trough push across the state. As we go through the weekend the trough that will push through on Friday will dry us out in the mid levels allowing for mostly dry and hot conditions.
Later this afternoon, models are fairly similar in pushing a cold front into northern and central Oklahoma. During peak heating 4 to 6 pm, a few thunderstorms may develop along the boundary with perhaps better chances over the higher terrain in the Texas Panhandle/far west central Oklahoma.
Ridge of high pressure will begin to build across the area today. We should see lighter winds for the next few days but also warmer temps. Best chances of seeing 90 or above exists across the lower Snake Plain through the eastern Magic Valley.
Some patchy fog may develop this morning across parts of the Coastal Bend, with the highest probabilities (20% chance of less than 1 mile visibility) across the Victoria Crossroads and in the Alice area. Winds will be a bit lighter than we have seen the past few days as high pressure builds across the area. As the high pressure builds to the south through Friday we will remain dry and initially a bit hazy. However, as the high pushes far enough south tonight into Friday, that should push those hazy conditions farther south and out of the area.
422 AM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024 An approaching cold front will bring widespread showers to the region today, with some locally heavy rainfall possible.
Additional light shower development will be possible southeast of our delta region along and ahead of a weak cold front that will continue drifting through our CWA the remainder of the night. /DC/ Storm chances will come to an end Thursday night as a cold front continues to push south across central MS. Quiet conditions will continue on Friday as the aforementioned cold front stalls out in the vicinity of the Hwy 84 corridor.
A pre-frontal trough is still bringing showers and thunderstorms to the region this afternoon, with the strongest storms now moving into northwest Ohio. Another line of convection is developing along the cold front in eastern Illinois. Cooler and drier conditions are in store for Thursday and Friday and the wake of today's front.
(The rest of this afternoon ) A very seasonably pleasant day has transpired today as a weak cold front has exited the forecast area and clouds continue to clear from north-to-south. Skies will remain clear/mostly clear tonight as upper-level ridging builds over the Desert Southwest and northwest flow/subsidence dominates over the region.
- A cold front passage on Friday will increase PoPs (20%) for zones immediately along the International Border, with a wetting rain accumulation through Friday night(at least a tenth of an inch) remaining low (<20%). Friday, a quick-moving cold front will move through the region, bringing a low chance for precipitation along the International Border and keep temperatures near to slightly above-normal. Northeast Montana then will be on the northern fringes of upper- level ridge influence.
332 AM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024 A weak cold front moving through the region today will result in the potential for a few showers. High pressure and a drier, cooler airmass will settle into the Ohio Valley tonight into Friday. Shower activity has just about ended across our area early this morning as the initial cold front moves east of our area. Any lingering shower activity across our southeast should taper off heading into this evening as the cold front moves through.
1250 AM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024 - Temperatures may warm up into the 90s for many locations across the area this afternoon with a cold front coming later today.
High pressure will move farther seaward late week, ahead of a series of weak cool fronts. Minimal PoPs today and tonight over the Atlantic waters will increase Thursday into Thursday evening, as an upper level trough crosses the area. Outside of convection, onshore flow breaks down into tonight as the ridge axis shifts south of the local waters.
(Today through Friday Night) Fntl bndry was situated acrs eastern AR early this mrng, along with a corresponding upper trof. The aforementioned upr trof/fnt wl cont to work to the east today. This wl allow aftn highs to top out in the mid 80s to the lower 90s.
932 PM PDT Wed Jun 5 2024 Quiet weather is expected over the next couple days as high pressure builds over the region.
NW winds were ushering in drier air to the state as a cold front drops SE into the state. The cold front will continuing pushing SE through the state tonight. slightly cooler air moving into the state to wrap up the short term.
Upper level analysis has an upper ridge over the western CONUS with a longwave trough extending southward through the Mississippi River Valley. A strong jet streak (100kt+) is rounding the ridge and diving into the Northern Great Plains (ern MT, ND, SD, MN, IA) in a northwest flow pattern. At the surface, an area of low pressure is centered over Manitoba and Ontario with high pressure over the Rockies. The low pressure system over Canada will gradually move east- southeast into the Great Lakes region by the end of the week while the ridge over the western CONUS continues to build. This will bring mainly dry weather and warmer temperatures for Thursday and Friday, mostly mid 70s to mid 80s on the plains and 70s over the Black Hills.
Notably cooler and less humid early this morning in the wake yesterday's late-day cold front. An increasing pressure gradient as high pressure becomes established over the Central Plains, paired with well-mixed forecast soundings, will permit westerly wind gusts of 30 mph. Breezy on Friday as well with slightly cooler temperatures, thanks to continued cold air advection aloft.
Slightly lower dewpoints (in the wake of a now stationary boundary) along with the mostly clear skies will help to give us warm (slightly above normal) daytime temperatures (highs in the lower to mid 90s) with heat index values ranging from 100F-105F during the afternoons. Lows tonight will be in the lower 70s across much of the CWA (to the upper 70s at the immediate coast).
It will be a touch warmer across southeast New Mexico and the western higher elevations as the low-level thermal ridge is pushed slightly further east. Outside of the continued heat, another round of showers and thunderstorms is expected across the higher elevations with the aid of another weak disturbance, daytime heating, and orographic ascent. Once again, widely scattered showers and thunderstorms should be expected across the higher elevations during the afternoon.
High pressure will build over the region through Friday then will gradually break down this weekend as a trough approaches the West Coast. The heat wave begins under a broad amplified ridge extending from Mexico up to the Pacific Northwest with its axis directly over Nevada today. The mean ridge will hold over our region Thursday and Friday ahead of a weak trough over the Eastern Pacific moving slowly toward the West Coast.
306 AM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024 - Scattered showers possible this morning, followed by cooler afternoon temps.
This is more of a trough at the sfc than a front, but there is some forcing just above the sfc with this and it should be capable of developing and gathering most of its sh/ts along its axis as the morning progresses. This morning, the higher PW values are to the SE of this boundary with lower PW values to the west and north and the only thing that has remained is the precip field which is little to none.
(Rest of Today) A trough at 8h and 5h across AL into southeast LA will shift southeast of the area today. Dew points will remain in the upper 60s to near 70 this afternoon ahead of the cold front which is still in central IL and MO.
An Excessive Heat Warning remains in effect for the lower elevations from 11 AM today through 8 PM Friday.
552 AM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024 (Today through Friday) An upper level ridge builds over our area today into Friday bringing a drier airmass aloft.
740 AM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024 An approaching cold front will bring widespread showers to the region today, with some locally heavy rainfall possible.
After the warmest day of the year thus far for most locations, temperatures will warm further today as ridging helps 700mb temperatures reach 13 to 15C over the area.
Upper level ridge remains in the area which will continue the first heat wave of the season.
643 AM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024 Humidity and storm coverage will increase today before a weak cold front moves through early Friday.
947 AM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024 A weak cold front moving through the region today will result in the potential for a few showers. High pressure and a drier, cooler airmass will settle into the Ohio Valley tonight into Friday. Generally tranquil weather is expected today between a cold front to the east and high pressure to the west. Any lingering shower activity across our southeast should taper off heading into this evening as the cold front moves through.
415 AM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024 Today and tonight: Low pressure will begin to shift east as a cold front pushes south across the area today. Storms will gradually shift southeastward as the cold front continues to sag.
- Windy conditions are expected again today with gusts up to around 40 mph, the highest gusts over northern Iowa.
637 AM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024 (Today) Early morning analysis shows a short wave at the tail end of a longwave trough becoming partially closed off across the region. However, showers may expand in coverage as a cold front associated with the mid/upr short wave crosses the area along with the advent of daytime heating. Although, the low-lvl Td gradient will lag behind the front so that we won't begin to experience the true dry air advection until Friday.
As this trough continues to move southeastward, it will sweep rain chances completely out of our area by mid afternoon. A more pronounced surface cold front will start to bring drier air later this afternoon, and that trend will continue with much cooler and less humid conditions for Friday. A cold front will push through the midstate tonight with a few showers possible along the front, before a much drier and cooler airmass arrives behind the boundary. Friday looks spectacular for early June with highs only in the mid 70s to low 80s, comfortable humidity with low dewpoints in the low to mid 50s, and no rain in sight. Friday night looks equally nice with the low dewpoints allowing min temps to drop into the 50s to around 60.
954 AM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024 Latest surface observations and KTBW VAD wind profile show low level flow has become more southwesterly as Bermuda high pressure continues to shift further out into the Atlantic and its associated ridge axis shifts southward. We are also seeing cooler temperatures around 500mb ranging from -7 to -10C. For our Friday we are seeing an upper level trough push across the state. As we go through the weekend the trough that will push through on Friday will dry us out in the mid levels allowing for mostly dry and hot conditions.