Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1037 AM MST Mon Jan 1 2024 Key Messages: - Warmer Temps over the plains while interior will be a few degrees cooler as compared to yesterday; remaining dry all areas with light winds. Main issues will be the high clouds. It will be about 10F warmer over the plains today as compared to yesterday, but the mtns and valleys will be several degrees cooler. Due to the increasing clouds, temps should be a few degrees warmer across the area as compared to this mornings mins.
Cloud cover should thin out across the Northern half of SE Texas tonight, with lows north of I-10 dropping into the lower 30s/lower 40s. A mid/upper level trough should side east across the state on Tuesday, providing a robust supply of PVA and mild diffluence over SE Texas. A coastal trough/low associated with this system will develop near the Deep South Texas coast early on Tuesday, later sliding up the coastal bend during the day and reaching the SE Texas coast during the evening.
1114 AM CST Mon Jan 1 2024 The low cloud deck over the area has been handled well by the RAP/HRRR since yesterday. This guidance suggests the low clouds will eventually erode by this afternoon and most areas should see some sun before the day ends.
As the high moves towards the area, light winds will back to the southwest. Upper-level ridging will quickly move over the region, and zonal flow will fill in behind. High temperatures are expected to be in the low-mid 40s.
Mid level trof axis continues to drop south through the area with a northerly flow in its wake. At the surface an east-west oriented trof axis to continue shifting slowly south thru Ohio into northern KY by evening leading to very light precipitation. Temperatures on Tuesday will top out generally in the upper 30s to the lower 40s. Low temperatures look to bottom out in the lower and middle 20s.
Expect lows to be mostly around 30 to the lower 30s, with upper 20s possible in a few low-lying areas. The weather maker for tomorrow will be an upper trough that is forecast to move east across New Mexico and adjacent northern Mexico, and across West Texas by late afternoon. With the approach of this trough, low-level moisture return will result in a quick northward expansion of low cloud cover Tuesday morning. Our east-central (Heartland) and southeastern (Northwest Hill Country) counties have the highest rain chances, with PoPs trailing off going into our northern and western counties. Indications from the 12Z models are that by the time precipitation begins (that could reach the ground), temperatures will be above freezing.
A dry cold front will quietly move through tonight with only a slight chance of showers. Drier, cooler air will filter down for tomorrow dropping morning temperatures back into the upper 30s for northern counties and low/mid 50s inland and south.
Cold front is currently analyzed along the northern Gulf Coast, with northerly drying airmass building in. Highs will be cooler, some 3-5 degrees below normal, in the upper 40s to low 50s north of I-20 to upper 50s to the south. /DC/ Happy New Year! A cold front is currently pushing southward through the area and was near a Natchez to Meridian line as of 2 AM. A weak wave tracking ahead of this front along the Gulf Coast continues to be very suppressed by the building ridge, and it appears less and less likely that it will bring light rain showers to our sections of south MS this morning. Still it will be noticeably cooler today, especially with the northerly breeze.
This does not seem reasonable with forecast soundings depicting a temperature inversion above the low cloud layer, the time of year and low sun angle. An upper trough will bring increasing clouds Tuesday, and possibly a snow shower in the far north late in the day.
The center of a 1025 mb high pressure system is near the Keys and South Florida.
238 PM EST Mon Jan 1 2024 (This afternoon through Tuesday) Dry cold front continues to push south across the CWA this afternoon. High pressure will build in from the west overnight and then move overhead during the day tomorrow.
Water vapor imagery highlights a cyclone sliding east near the Baja Peninsula.
1235 PM EST Mon Jan 1 2024 A disturbance moves across this evening followed by high pressure Tuesday afternoon.
257 PM CST Mon Jan 1 2024 - Tuesday will have a cold front in the morning and more clouds than sun during the day.
Sites in the lower Treasure Valley are reporting visibility of 1/4 which lines up with webcam imagery from Weiser to Caldwell. Mostly VFR, with areas of MVFR/IFR in valley fog and low ceilings mainly in the Baker Valley near KBKE, Long Valley near KMYL, and the Lower Treasure Valley near KONO and KEUL. High pressure aloft will keep light winds and afternoon mixing heights below 2000 feet through Tuesday. Late Tue/Wed a low pressure system off the West Coast will act to increase easterly winds across the Baker Valley and portions of the Snake Plain while introducing a chance of showers across SE Oregon.
A dry cold front will progress with it down into southern Montana but will not produce much change in the observable weather other than a wind shift to the northwest and a few gusts of 20 to 30 mph across the region into this evening. Upper ridging builds over the area for tomorrow behind the clipper bringing lighter winds, more sun, and continued mild dry conditions.
1230 PM EST Mon Jan 1 2024 High pressure will dominate today. A dry cold front will move through tonight followed by high pressure into midweek.
(This afternoon through Tuesday) A positively-tilted longwave trough extended from over New England southwest to over the Deep South this New Year's Day while longwave ridging was present over much of the Plains. Expect only a few high clouds to continue to move southeast with time in association of the surface cold front advancing through the area. A northwest flow aloft will prevail over the area overnight as the longwave trough moves to our east while mid-level ridging further amplifies over most of the Plains and into the Midwest. Near optimal radiational cooling conditions will result in sharp temperature drops overnight with lows from the low 20s far north to the upper 20s far southeast. A brief duration of ridging aloft will move over the area during the day on Tuesday.
- Low chance (20%) of freezing drizzle Tuesday night. This means that we will be slightly warmer overnight and slightly cooler overnight. If these clouds do clear, then lows will be cooler tonight with warmer highs tomorrow.
1155 AM CST Mon Jan 1 2024 (Today and tonight) Early this morning, satellite imagery indicated low clouds (associated with some low level moisture coming in behind the departed cold front) moving into the Big Country. Cold air advection via northeasterly winds behind yesterday's cold front will bring cool highs for the start of the new year, with highs forecasted to be in the upper 40s in the Big Country, and low to mid 50s elsewhere. Tonight, increasing high clouds (associated with an eastward moving upper level trough across the Desert Southwest) will move across our area, which could help negate the strength of radiational cooling overnight. Lows in the low 30s are forecast.
(This evening through Tuesday night) Satellite shows some stubborn areas of freezing fog finally dissipating over the far eastern Panhandles as of 1 PM, allowing visibility and temperatures to improve through the afternoon. Overnight lows will be below freezing once again tonight with light winds and cloudy skies. There could also be another round of freezing fog in the east-southeast Panhandles tonight into tomorrow morning, leading to potentially hazardous conditions from reduced visibilities. A 500mb closed low off the northern Baja coast will advance eastward tomorrow, becoming more of an open wave as it passes just south of the Panhandles. Another contributing factor to the reduction in precip chances is a cold frontal passage which should keep better moisture and lift confined south by the time the main system arrives.
351 PM EST Mon Jan 1 2024 A weak trough over PA will drag along this evening and overnight. High pressure then builds in.
1133 AM EST Mon Jan 1 2024 High pressure builds over the area today, then to the south tonight through Tuesday.
1157 AM CST Mon Jan 1 2024 - Areas of freezing fog gradually dissipate this morning.
Based on the most recent guidance, overcast will persist along the higher terrain and the valley may see some breaks or higher clouds in the next few hours, only for it to fill in again overnight. The challenge overnight may be low temperatures and if we will remain warmer than models suggest.
Low level cold air advection will continue through the day so clouds are unlikely to dissipate until the 850mb ridge starts building in this evening.
916 AM CST Mon Jan 1 2024 The low cloud deck over the area has been handled well by the RAP/HRRR since yesterday. This guidance suggests the low clouds will eventually erode by this afternoon and most areas should see some sun before the day ends.
The mid-level pattern across the country this afternoon shows a longwave trough approaching the east coast, a shorter wave trough axis approaching the Dakotas, and a closed low circulation off the coast of Baja California. Low temps are forecast to drop into the mid 20s tonight, but could be a few degrees warmer if stratus does return. Tomorrow, a weak surface boundary associated with the mid-level trough axis approaching the Dakotas will move through northeast KS as the low near Baja California passes south of the area, bringing rain to the Gulf Coast.
339 PM EST Mon Jan 1 2024 A dry cold front will cross the area through this evening, followed by high pressure into midweek.
(Tonight through Tuesday night) Key Messages: - 10-30% chance of over 1 inch of rain through Tuesday night east of HWY 281 Cloudy skies are expected to continue tonight into tomorrow in the wake of the cold front this morning. Rain chances will return to the forecast Tuesday as an upper-level disturbance approaches from the west and a coastal trough develops across Deep South Texas. As the coastal trough develops, moisture will increase with PWAT values near 1. Rain chances will taper off Tuesday night after midnight as our next cold front pushes through across the region.
A reinforcing cold front will push south down the peninsula tonight with winds veering to the north. Drier cooler air will advect across west central and southwest Florida in the wake of the front late tonight and Tuesday as high pressure builds back over the region. A dry cold front will quietly move through tonight with only a slight chance of showers. Drier, cooler air will filter down for tomorrow dropping morning temperatures back into the upper 30s for northern counties and low/mid 50s inland and south.
Rest of the forecast looks on track with cloudy skies for the rest of the night and the morning as thermal trough aligns very well with the stratus edge. As the high moves towards the area, light winds will back to the southwest. Upper-level ridging will quickly move over the region, and zonal flow will fill in behind. High temperatures are expected to be in the low-mid 40s.
- Trending cooler and more unsettled late in the week through the weekend with increased chances for precipitation, and potential for elevated wind gusts in the southeast Wyoming wind corridors. Impacts will mainly be additional cloud coverage and temperatures five to ten degrees cooler.
- Low chance (20%) of freezing drizzle Tuesday night. This means that we will either be slightly warmer overnight or slightly cooler overnight. If these clouds do clear, then lows will be cooler tonight with warmer highs tomorrow.
425 PM CST Mon Jan 1 2024 - Tuesday will have a cold front in the morning and more clouds than sun during the day.
553 PM CST Mon Jan 1 2024 (This evening through Tuesday night) Satellite shows some stubborn areas of freezing fog finally dissipating over the far eastern Panhandles as of 1 PM, allowing visibility and temperatures to improve through the afternoon. Overnight lows will be below freezing once again tonight with light winds and cloudy skies. There could also be another round of freezing fog in the east-southeast Panhandles tonight into tomorrow morning, leading to potentially hazardous conditions from reduced visibilities. A 500mb closed low off the northern Baja coast will advance eastward tomorrow, becoming more of an open wave as it passes just south of the Panhandles. Another contributing factor to the reduction in precip chances is a cold frontal passage which should keep better moisture and lift confined south by the time the main system arrives.
This has kept temperatures cooler here, with readings mostly in the 30s, with 40s elsewhere. High pressure will slide to our east tonight, with winds becoming southerly across the area.
626 PM CST Mon Jan 1 2024 (Tonight through Tuesday night) Key Messages: - 10-30% chance of over 1 inch of rain through Tuesday night east of HWY 281 Cloudy skies are expected to continue tonight into tomorrow in the wake of the cold front this morning. Rain chances will return to the forecast Tuesday as an upper-level disturbance approaches from the west and a coastal trough develops across Deep South Texas. As the coastal trough develops, moisture will increase with PWAT values near 1. Rain chances will taper off Tuesday night after midnight as our next cold front pushes through across the region.
559 PM CST Mon Jan 1 2024 (This afternoon through Tuesday) A positively-tilted longwave trough extended from over New England southwest to over the Deep South this New Year's Day while longwave ridging was present over much of the Plains. A northwest flow aloft will prevail over the area overnight as the longwave trough moves to our east while mid-level ridging further amplifies over most of the Plains and into the Midwest. Near optimal radiational cooling conditions will result in sharp temperature drops overnight with lows from the low 20s far north to the upper 20s far southeast. A brief duration of ridging aloft will move over the area during the day on Tuesday.
353 AM EST Tue Jan 2 2024 Dry weather is expected today as high pressure builds in from the southwest.
Still, with the caa continuing tonight, morning lows will be cooler than normal and in the upper 20s to lower 30s. Lows will fall to 10 degrees below normal in the low to mid 20s to the north to upper 20s to the south. With light breeze, windchills will be quite cold by the morning in the low 20s. We should be able to maintain persistence on highs but could be a touch warmer.
1120 PM CST Mon Jan 1 2024 - Tuesday will have a cold front in the morning and more clouds than sun during the day.
- Cold frontal passage brings a chance for mix/snow Tuesday night into Wednesday, but any amounts look quite light. Mix/Snow shower potential with the cold front Tuesday night into Wednesday: Temperatures remain near to above normal temperatures to start the New Year.
(Today through Wednesday afternoon) Clouds and low level moisture continue to increase this morning ahead of an upper trough that will move across the region today. A few snow flakes may mix in with the rain across the higher terrain, but due to ground and air temperatures above freezing no impacts are expected. Warmer conditions will be found across the Big Bend where more sun is expected. A weak cold front will follow behind the trough Wednesday, but there will be little change in airmass.
Rain and snow chances return Wednesday evening with much cooler temperatures.
Pops and qpf totals, however, will remain on the low and minimal side.
Otherwise, ridging over the area today will keep dry and mild conditions in place, with high temperatures mainly in the 40s. Heading into tonight, a weak back door cold front will move in from the northeast, bringing a wind shift to the east and northeast, along with low clouds and fog to eastern areas. An upper low moving inland along the West Coast on Wednesday will cause heights to decrease over the area and clouds to increase. This, along with the aforementioned back door front will bring slightly cooler temperatures on Wednesday, with highs in the 30s to around 40s degrees forecast, warmest over the west. Main forcing with the upper low looks to stay south and west of the area keeping dry conditions in place.
101 AM EST Tue Jan 2 2024 High pressure will prevail with cool and dry weather through Wednesday.
318 AM EST Tue Jan 2 2024 High pressure will prevail with cool and dry weather through Wednesday.
Lows early this morning will reach the lower 50s across most of the area. For Wednesday behind the front, high pressure will build back in from the north and the pressure gradient across South Florida will tighten a bit. As weak cold air advection takes place, high temperatures will still remain below normal as they range from the upper 60s across the Lake Okeechobee region to the lower 70s along and south of Alligator Alley.
1044 PM CST Mon Jan 1 2024 (This evening through Tuesday night) Satellite shows some stubborn areas of freezing fog finally dissipating over the far eastern Panhandles as of 1 PM, allowing visibility and temperatures to improve through the afternoon. Overnight lows will be below freezing once again tonight with light winds and cloudy skies. There could also be another round of freezing fog in the east-southeast Panhandles tonight into tomorrow morning, leading to potentially hazardous conditions from reduced visibilities. A 500mb closed low off the northern Baja coast will advance eastward tomorrow, becoming more of an open wave as it passes just south of the Panhandles. Another contributing factor to the reduction in precip chances is a cold frontal passage which should keep better moisture and lift confined south by the time the main system arrives.
Some cloud erosion may develop over our far western counties by daybreak, but it will likely be mid morning before the low clouds break up significantly. So, most of the area will start the day with temps in the low to mid 30s.
Otherwise skies are generally clear under broad upper level ridging centered over the NW US.
Discussion: Upper level trough is currently exiting to our east and will be out of the area by late morning/early afternoon.
1054 PM CST Mon Jan 1 2024 (Tonight through Tuesday night) Key Messages: - 10-30% chance of over 1 inch of rain through Tuesday night east of HWY 281 Cloudy skies are expected to continue tonight into tomorrow in the wake of the cold front this morning. Rain chances will return to the forecast Tuesday as an upper-level disturbance approaches from the west and a coastal trough develops across Deep South Texas. As the coastal trough develops, moisture will increase with PWAT values near 1. Rain chances will taper off Tuesday night after midnight as our next cold front pushes through across the region.
The 19Z MSAS surface analysis showed a ridge of high pressure that extended from the southern Plains to the western Great Lakes. A cold front stretched from central Manitoba southwest through western sections of the Dakotas. High pressure to be centered over the Ozarks/TN Valley with both surface and upper ridging shifting toward the eastern Great Lakes. A cold front sweeps across WI on Tuesday, but moisture availability appears to be a problem. Any clearing skies will cloud over once again as the cold front moves through.
Woodlands radar near Winnipeg is not operable so keeping the low pops in NW MN too overnight.
238 AM CST Tue Jan 2 2024 - There is a risk for patchy freezing drizzle and fog this morning and afternoon, and again tonight. This raises the concern for freezing drizzle and fog, with temperatures in the mid 20s. Using 2 miles as a threshold, short term, hi-res model guidance gives a 40-50% probability of seeing at least patchy freezing drizzle over southwestern and south central Wisconsin this morning and early afternoon, at which point temperatures should mostly be above freezing. Freezing drizzle potential becomes more nebulous heading into the evening and overnight hours tonight, with a loss of low level lift, though the low levels look to remain saturated as winds turn northwesterly behind a passing cold front. A second cold front will pass through the area later Wednesday, turning winds to the north and perhaps squeezing out a few flurries.
- Trending cooler and more unsettled late in the week through the weekend with increased chances for precipitation, and potential for elevated wind gusts in the southeast Wyoming wind corridors. Impacts will mainly be additional cloud coverage and temperatures five to ten degrees cooler. Overnight low temperatures will continue to be in the low teens to 20s, which is normal for this time of year.
(Today and tonight) An upper level low located over the Arizona/Sonora border early this morning will move eastward to near El Paso by noon and then open up and eject across the South Plains/Permian Basin this afternoon and evening. Have trimmed PoPs some mainly across the northern third of the forecast area while maintaining the highest precip chances across the southern Rolling Plains. Progged soundings have come in warmer in addition to drier with any rain/snow mix looking very unlikely at the beginning of the event. Precip could linger into the early evening hours before moving to the east of the area with clearing skies then working in behind the departing trough.
Ridging off to our north will maintain light mostly northerly breezes on Keys waters through the overnight period.
(This afternoon through Tuesday) Dry cold front continues to push south across the CWA this afternoon. High pressure will build in from the west overnight and then move overhead during the day tomorrow.
326 AM EST Tue Jan 2 2024 Northwesterly flow brings lake enhanced snow showers early this morning, then high pressure Tuesday into Wednesday.
1127 PM CST Mon Jan 1 2024 - A cold front Wednesday afternoon will bring a brief shot of colder air Wednesday night.
110 AM EST Tue Jan 2 2024 Northwesterly flow brings lake enhanced snow showers early this morning, then high pressure Tuesday into Wednesday.
115 AM EST Tue Jan 2 2024 Dry weather is expected today with a slow decrease in cloud cover as high pressure builds in from the southwest.
(Today and tonight) An upper level trough currently centered across Arizona will approach West Central Texas today, resulting in an increase in showers. As the trough approaches, surface moisture will slowly increase with dewpoints climbing into the mid 30s to mid 40s.
Rest of the forecast looks on track with cloudy skies for the rest of the night and the morning as thermal trough aligns very well with the stratus edge. As the high moves towards the area, light winds will back to the southwest. Upper-level ridging will quickly move over the region, and zonal flow will fill in behind. High temperatures are expected to be in the low-mid 40s. ============================================================= A surface cold front and upper level trough will approach the region from the west on Wednesday. Ahead of the trough, southwesterly flow should allow temps to climb into the mid/upper 40s during the afternoon hours, with fropa likely occurring after sunset. Appears very little moisture will be associated with the trough and surface front, so forecast has trended dry for this timeframe.
Cooler temperatures, of which are near to slightly above average, are then expected through the remainder of the week.
Low stratus and valley freezing fog has once again developed this morning across portions of western Montana and north-central Idaho, with some locations having experienced dense fog for several hours overnight. The ridge of high pressure producing the stable valley conditions, is expected to remain in place through the day tomorrow. Another morning of patchy dense freezing fog is possible for the Wednesday morning commute, in much of the same places.
734 AM EST Tue Jan 2 2024 Northwesterly flow brings lake enhanced snow showers early this morning, then high pressure Tuesday into Wednesday.