Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1200 AM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024 (This evening through Saturday) Rather quiet and dry conditions are expected to unfold across the South Plains region through the short term period as upper level ridging and the associated high pressure continue to dominate over the Four Corners region.
1244 AM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024 (Tonight) Troughing that extended from the eastern Great Lakes was weakening, as strong upper ridging over the NW Atlantic basin builds westward. This upper ridging was joining with another one already over the 4-Corners. Despite the upper ridging, earlier strong heating resulted in high temperatures that climbed into the mid/upper 90s. The temperatures should fall mainly into the lower 70s by daybreak Saturday.
125 AM EDT Sat Jul 13 2024 An area of high pressure will build across the region through this weekend supporting mostly dry and fair weather. Warm and moderately humid weather is expected this weekend with highs ranging in the mid 80s to the low 90s. A mid level trough is centered over the Great Lakes region late this evening as a deep southwest flow continues across the region. The mid level trough will move north of the region overnight while high pressure settles across the region. A westerly flow aloft will drive slightly drier and cooler air into the region Saturday.
At the same time, a 594dam ridge to our south will exit our forecast area and continue to track eastward towards Alabama. Nighttime temperatures will drop in the low 70s across the area. 850mb Temperatures aloft will climb into the low 20s across our forecast area which will result in afternoon highs reaching in the upper 90s. A few spots across the Golden Triangle could see sfc temps in the low 100s. The highest temperatures appear concentrated for along and north of Hwy 82 where dewpoints will peak in the low to mid 70s, and a drier airmass will allow for deeper mixing.
(Today and tonight) Ridging overhead today along with a bit of drier air will allow high temperatures to rise into the mid to upper 90s this afternoon. Coverage is expected to be fairly isolated however thanks to the ridging overhead.
A broad ridge of high pressure centered over the Four Corners will work in conjunction with a low pressure circulation over central Canada to keep the Northern Rockies under westerly flow aloft today. The combination of hot daytime highs and warm nights will keep the lower Salmon and Snake River valleys, including Riggins, under a Heat Advisory.
(Today through Sunday) A transient upper high hovers over the Florida peninsula, placing South Florida in a weak easterly flow regime. On Sunday, a strong Bermuda High and a mid-level ridge will shift winds to a more easterly flow. Diurnally driven convection will begin early along the eastern coast, with the highest rainfall probabilities expected across southwestern Florida and the interior by the latter part of the day.
Satellite imagery shows mid and high level clouds continuing to spread northward into NorCal around the periphery of the upper high to our east and the low off the coast. Thunderstorm chances today and Sunday are expected to be mainly diurnal and terrain driven with the highest coverage along the Sierra crest with generally southerly steering flow. Given the moisture increase, these storms will likely be accompanied by some decent rain cores, but risk of lightning occurring outside the cores on fuels that have been heating and drying the past 2-3 weeks is the reason for the Red Flag Warning over the high Sierra into Sunday evening. Elsewhere, some sprinkles or light showers will be possible, but lack of deeper elevated instability and lift (upper low forecast to remain far enough off the coast) precludes a more widespread thunder risk.
The upper high currently over the Four Corners will push eastward today and will be centered over Colorado later tonight. Despite the upper high moving closer to the FA, thicknesses will remain unchanged from yesterday and will help keep temps in check this afternoon. The high will, however, hinder convective chances.
H500 ridging over the Four Corners will slowly expand its reach east toward the state with the mid-level trough axis across the middle of the country becoming more diffuse and moving east as well. A second robust area of mid-level ridging will remain in place across the SE US. At the sfc, ridging will remain in place which will largely hinder precip chances through the period. A few weak disturbances will pass nearby northern parts of the state today as well as srn AR around the periphery of the nearby ridges.
An upper level ridge builds into the southeast states, which will help push high temperatures well into the 90s and close to triple digits over the weekend.
This weekend's pattern is very similar to what we've seen the last couple of days: dirty ridging and plenty of moisture hanging around the region has lead to at least very isolated rain chances.
Aloft, we are monitoring a weakness in the upper ridge over N.
Otherwise, a hot and dry day as a strong mid level ridge continues to slowly expand eastward into the Plains. Gusty south-southwesterly winds will also increase into the afternoon as the region stays planted between sfc ridging to the south and troughing to the north.
Upper trough/shear axis over South Texas Saturday expected to expand slightly northward. Temperatures will be a degree or two cooler Saturday (less hot) especially along the I-10 corridor.
Evening temperatures in the low to mid 80s will gradually fall into the mid to upper 70s by sunrise.
Today and Sunday As has been the case for many days now, high pressure is the dominant weather feature impacting local weather. The strong ridge remains centered across the Four Corners region today and into Sunday although it will shift ever so slightly to the east. This won't have much impact on temperatures though as daytime highs will still climb into the upper 90s and low 100s across the lower elevations. The subtle shift in the placement of the ridge however will slowly bring deeper moisture into the region.
1155 PM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024 (This evening through Saturday night) Upper ridging was centered over Utah this afternoon, with a weaker ridge over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. In between, a trough extended from Lake Huron southwestward to Missouri and then into west Texas. We've issued a Heat Advisory for Saturday afternoon for the area, with the exception of the lower portions of the Louisiana coastal parishes.
315 AM EDT Sat Jul 13 2024 Areas of low pressure will ripple along a quasi-stationary front over the Piedmont through tonight. Meanwhile, the 850-700mb trough and accompanying axis of anomalously high moisture/PWATS will gradually shift eastward through the day. The moist/humid dewpoint air in the lower to mid 70s east of the front will result in heat indices in the upper 90s to around 100 from the Triangle eastward. Lows in the lower/mid 70s.
255 AM EDT Sat Jul 13 2024 Areas of low pressure will ripple along a quasi-stationary front over the Piedmont through tonight. Meanwhile, the 850-700mb trough and accompanying axis of anomalously high moisture/PWATS will gradually shift eastward through the day. The moist/humid dewpoint air in the lower to mid 70s east of the front will result in heat indices in the upper 90s to around 100 from the Triangle eastward. Lows in the lower/mid 70s.
The axis of the inverted trough in the mid levels over TX appears to be over our Nrn CWA and that should bode well for Chance category PoPs for most areas today. By tonight the H7 trough is far enough inland that the mid level ridging from the Gulf is set to make a push into South TX to bring a more stable pattern back into South TX for Sunday.
(Saturday through Sunday) The region remains flanked by a pair of strong upper-level ridge axes, one to NW and the other to the SE.
/Issued 1201 AM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024/ /Overnight through Sunday/ Stronger ridging has thus far remained centered over the western CONUS keeping us seasonably hot, but also removed from the hottest temperatures. PoPs will range from 20-40% this afternoon with the highest chances across our far southern and southeastern counties. Ridging will expand eastward a bit on Sunday with that deeper moisture also getting pushed farther east into southeast Texas by Sunday afternoon. Temperatures will be a few degrees warmer Sunday afternoon with highs topping out in the upper 90s. The exception will be in our southeastern counties where additional cloud cover may keep temps in the lower 90s, although it will be more humid.
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Upper ridge will remain in place over the western half of the CONUS for the next several days.
Ridging aloft will continue to supress convection and fair weather Cu could be expected again tomorrow afternoon. (Saturday night through Sunday night) Upper level ridge will be in control of upper level pattern over the weekend and with lower rain chances likely, temperatures will be quite warm and in the mid to upper 90s.
558 AM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024 (Today and tonight) Hot weather will continue as the Southern Plains will remain on the eastern periphery of a mid-level ridge and attendant low-level thermal ridge.
Showers and thunderstorms will return by midweek as a cold front moves into the region.
630 AM EDT Sat Jul 13 2024 (Today and tonight) Ridging overhead today along with a bit of drier air will allow high temperatures to rise into the mid to upper 90s this afternoon. Coverage is expected to be fairly isolated however thanks to the ridging overhead.
A few degrees cooler on Sunday, however thunderstorm chances rise to 10 to 40 percent. High pressure drifts eastward today centering over the four corners region with well above normal high temperatures continuing. Increasing instability across much of northern and central NV this afternoon coupled with increasing amounts of mid-level moisture building up under the exiting ridge will lead to isolated to scattered thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Sunday as the center of high pressure exits a little farther to the east thunderstorm chances will diminish across the western-most portion of the CWA, with continued thunderstorm activity across central and eastern portions. High temperatures Sunday will also begin to trend lower, with most locations 2-6 degrees cooler on Sunday.
(Today through Sunday) Latest upper level analysis shows the typical Desert Southwest and Bermuda ridges in place with a shallow trough in place between them. Models show the upper trough to the north shifting east on Sunday. Although this won't make any apprecible difference in local temps, slightly less subsidence over the CWA is probable as the trough slightly erodes the western side of the Bermuda ridge.
614 AM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024 (Today and tonight) The weakness in the upper level ridge will expand more to the northeast today, providing better rain chances and slightly cooler temperatures.
(Today) Light WSW flow aloft will continue across the region today, with the TN Valley located between the southwestern edge of a subtropical ridge centered over the North Atlantic and a longwave trough that will progress slowly eastward from the Upper/Mid-MS Valley into the Great Lakes. Abundant insolation later this morning will allow for development of a deep/well-mixed boundary layer, with dewpoints expected to mix down into the lower 60s as temps rise into the m-u 90s (keeping heat indices in the 98-102F range). Guidance from the 0Z CAMs suggests that intense heating of the low-levels may result in the development of isolated/high-based convection this afternoon, which may produce little measurable rainfall but occasional strong wind gusts given steep lapse rates between the cloud base and surface.
High pressure across the western Atlantic will build over the local waters today, causing the winds to become south- southeast, with speeds generally around 10 KT.
The strong area of high pressure that has been driving the hot temperatures will persist, now centered over the Four Corners area. This trend is expected to continue through the weekend considering that Wyoming is sitting at the 12 o'clock position of the dominating anticyclone.
(Today and tonight) An upper level low currently centered 200mi offshore of south/central California will gradually lift north over the course of the weekend while making little gain eastward toward land with the persistent high over the Four Corners region driving the synoptic pattern across western CONUS.
Notably, looped reflectivity suggested the center of the dome of high pressure was roughly west of Hanksville which matched the positioning of the high according to latest operational models. The high pressure center drifts over southwest Colorado where it will remain today. With the high over Colorado it's unlikely that there will be any appreciable increase in moisture over the forecast area. Models indicated an uptick in moisture tonight as the high center drifts east of the Continental Divide by 12Z/Sun. High pressure continues to drive the forecast through the coming week.
710 AM EDT Sat Jul 13 2024 A cold front will remain stalled across the region through today with moist southerly flow bringing periods of rain.
With a high pressure system currently centered over the Four Corners, southerly flow will be enhanced, allowing an increase in moisture advection to occur. Scattered to widespread activity looks likely on Sunday as the high pressure remains centered over the Four Corners and moisture continues to be abundant.
622 AM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024 (Today through Sunday) We remain under the influence of mid and upper level troughing today which will keep rain chances in our forecast. This troughing is locked in between strong high pressure over the Rockies and high pressure over the Southeast US. Within this troughing, a band of vorticity will lift north through the area today and will be the focus for convection. Once this gets out of here, the southeast US ridge will build into Texas and bring quieter weather for the second half of the weekend.
(Today and tonight) The weakness in the upper level ridge will expand more to the northeast today, providing better rain chances and slightly cooler temperatures.
Dunn Previous Discussion: /Overnight through Sunday/ Stronger ridging has thus far remained centered over the western CONUS keeping us seasonably hot, but also removed from the hottest temperatures. PoPs will range from 20-40% this afternoon with the highest chances across our far southern and southeastern counties. Ridging will expand eastward a bit on Sunday with that deeper moisture also getting pushed farther east into southeast Texas by Sunday afternoon. Temperatures will be a few degrees warmer Sunday afternoon with highs topping out in the upper 90s. The exception will be in our southeastern counties where additional cloud cover may keep temps in the lower 90s, although it will be more humid.
637 AM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024 (Today) Light WSW flow aloft will continue across the region today, with the TN Valley located between the southwestern edge of a subtropical ridge centered over the North Atlantic and a longwave trough that will progress slowly eastward from the Upper/Mid-MS Valley into the Great Lakes. Abundant insolation later this morning will allow for development of a deep/well-mixed boundary layer, with dewpoints expected to mix down into the lower 60s as temps rise into the m-u 90s (keeping heat indices in the 98-102F range). Guidance from the 0Z CAMs suggests that intense heating of the low-levels may result in the development of isolated/high-based convection this afternoon, which may produce little measurable rainfall but occasional strong wind gusts given steep lapse rates between the cloud base and surface.
654 AM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024 (Saturday through Sunday) The region remains flanked by a pair of strong upper-level ridge axes, one to NW and the other to the SE.
708 AM EDT Sat Jul 13 2024 (Today through Sunday) A transient upper high hovers over the Florida peninsula, placing South Florida in a weak easterly flow regime. On Sunday, a strong Bermuda High and a mid-level ridge will shift winds to a more easterly flow. Diurnally driven convection will begin early along the eastern coast, with the highest rainfall probabilities expected across southwestern Florida and the interior by the latter part of the day.
Given the high moisture values, some of these showers and thunderstorms could produce locally heavy rainfall, and minor flooding could be a concern if any of these storms are slow moving and impact an area that has received higher rainfall amounts over the past few days. This evening, drier mid level flow will move into the region along the western periphery of an expanding mid level ridge over the southeastern US.
Overnight lows will be in the lower 70s for nearly the entire area. The only upper 60s would likely be limited to the highest elevation of Lookout Mountain in eastern DeKalb County.
Aside from the higher elevations in far north Georgia, highs this afternoon will range from the mid 90s in north Georgia to the upper 90s in central Georgia. Highs will be a couple of degrees warmer across the area on Sunday in the upper 90s across the majority of the forecast area and up to 100 in portions of central Georgia in the peak heating hours.
1251 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024 (Today and tonight) The weakness in the upper level ridge will expand more to the northeast today, providing better rain chances and slightly cooler temperatures.
Temperatures remain likely to be a degree or two warmer than yesterday in most spots, with dew points near to just above 70 in the afternoon.
/NEW/ /Through Sunday/ North and Central Texas will remain beneath weak ridging through the weekend, with the ridge axis firmly planted over the Four Corners Region. While another hot afternoon is expected today, temperatures will remain below 100 degrees for most locations and potentially only in the 80s for portions of Central Texas where increasing cloud cover and the highest coverage of showers and storms are expected. The increase in moisture will keep temperatures slightly warmer tonight with overnight lows in the low to mid 70s. Sunday will be a bit warmer as slightly stronger ridging builds into the region.
(Tonight through Sunday night) As a mid-level ridge moves the Four Corners region, more dry air will filter into the area. As for the temperatures, the low temperatures for both tonight and tomorrow night are expected to be in the 70s with parts of the Lower Rio Grande Valley close to the 80s. The high temperature for tomorrow is expected to be in the 90s.
Currently a cold front is moving southeast through the northwest part of the state.
230 PM EDT Sat Jul 13 2024 High pressure will dominate our weather tonight and most of Sunday with warm and increasingly humid conditions.
(This afternoon through Sunday night) WV imagery shows a bifurcated upper ridge persisting over the southern CONUS, with one half centered just northeast of the Four Corners, and the other over the southeast Gulf coast states, placing the col from Del Rio to the ArklaTex. The col is allowing a sort of inverted trough over Chihuahua/Coahuila, favoring convective development there in upslope flow. Sunday looks very similar to today, only thicknesses increase just a bit northeast as the Four Corners ridge develops a little farther south, adding a degree or two to afternoon highs. At the same time, the inverted trough noses a little farther in to the CWA, decreasing temperatures in the southwest.
(This evening through Sunday night) Upper ridges centered from Bermuda to the eastern Gulf of Mexico to our east and over the Four Corners area to the west. In between, a trough axis extended from Lake Ontario to western Kentucky to Oklahoma. Most of the morning across the area saw little in the way of cloud cover, but as temperatures warmed into the lower and middle 90s, isolated to scattered convection developed along lake and sea breeze boundaries. The western ridge may expand eastward slightly on Sunday, pushing the trough axis a bit closer to the area. Maybe a little better areal coverage with the trough being a bit closer, but that's it.
134 PM EDT Sat Jul 13 2024 (Today and tonight) Ridging overhead today along with a bit of drier air will allow high temperatures to rise into the mid to upper 90s this afternoon. Coverage is expected to be fairly isolated however thanks to the ridging overhead.
13 (Saturday through Sunday) The region remains flanked by a pair of strong upper-level ridge axes, one to NW and the other to the SE.
(This evening through Sunday) An upper level high situated over northern NM continues to drive the weather picture here in West Texas on this warm summer day. WV imagery shows some weak lift rotating about the NERN periphery of the high making its way out of OK into the Permian Basin.
Shower activity has been much more isolated in the vicinity of the Lower Keys. This has resulted in quite a spread in current temperatures, with rain-cooled locations reporting around 80F, while dry locations have managed to climb into the lower 90s. Coupled with temperatures once again in the lower 90s, Heat Advisories will need to be considered for Sunday afternoon and early evening.
High pressure aloft will continue to dominate the pattern through tomorrow, limiting overall activity, though a slight increase in coverage is still expected.
Confidence is low due to the low predictability of the pattern.
0 inch PWAT air and beneath the right entrance region of the jet stream associated with an upper-level trough in the region. Dew points even south of Interstate 20 have mixed out into the lower 70s today. The NAM and GFS explicitly show some sort of mid- level low or MCV feature evolving from the TX/LA convection this evening and drifting northeast with the flow, and this seems like a reasonable possibility given the jet dynamics and vorticity in the base of the upper-level trough. The upper-level trough axis never truly clears out of the central Gulf Coast region through the end of this week, so afternoon convection and increased cloud cover will continue to challenge peak heating potential.
On Sunday, a strong Bermuda High and a mid-level ridge will shift winds to a more easterly flow. Diurnally driven convection will begin early along the eastern coast, with the highest rainfall probabilities expected across southwestern Florida and the interior by the latter part of the day. The heat advisory continues for those two counties today; however, with building cloud coverage and showers, they may luck out and keep cooler, avoiding the intense diurnal heating this afternoon.
The moisture associated with the weak 500 mb trough is moving north, as the 500 mb ridges on either side of the trough begin to rotate north to join up over North Texas.
However, as temperatures got into the lower and middle 90s, the cumulus field increased significantly. Inland terminals may be slightly more favored for convection Sunday afternoon as Gulf ridging expands a bit.
A positively-tilted upper-level trough over the central CONUS is keeping southwesterly flow aloft over our region and is resulting in about 15-20 kts of deep-layer wind shear over the area. Mid- level ridge over the southeastern U.
In addition, dew points are expected to be in the lower 70s across portions of our NW CWA.
228 PM EDT Sat Jul 13 2024 High pressure will dominate our weather tonight and most of Sunday with warm and increasingly humid conditions.
(Tonight through Sunday night) Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are seen across South Central Texas early this afternoon associated with lingering deep tropical moisture and an inverted trough to the west. High pressure over the Gulf expands over east Texas overnight bringing more stable conditions to the area tomorrow. Slightly warmer conditions are forecast tomorrow with highs mainly in the 90s across the area.