Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
343 PM EDT Mon Jun 17 2024 High pressure, drier conditions, and near normal temperatures are expected through late this week.
- Warm south and cooler with a few storms north today.
(This evening through Tuesday) In between the upper level ridge (over the southeast coast) and the upper trough (northwest CONUS) sits our forecast area. Flow from the gulf around the western edge of the ridge has brought a field of cumulus to much of Oklahoma and north Texas. A tight pressure gradient at the surface (as a cold front approaches from the north) has been keeping winds gusty today, a pattern which will continue through the night and into tomorrow as well.
an upper-level ridge continues to slowly move over the region, and temperatures will begin to ramp up this afternoon, with high temperatures in the high 80s to low 90s. Temperatures will continue to rise into Tuesday, up to the low to mid 90s, with heat indices of 95 to 100.
Highs tomorrow are expected to be a degree or two cooler with a few more clouds and slightly more coverage of showers and storms. Lows the next two nights will stay in the low to mid 70s.
- Below normal temperatures expected Tuesday and Tuesday night, followed by temperatures trending warmer and another active period developing for later this week. Mid level low/S/WV trough moving into the Montana Rockies, with multiple lead embedded waves moving across the Dakotas today, resulting in scattered showers and extensive cloudiness. Looking at two rounds of showers/storms over the next 12-18 hours, the first will be convection firing up to our southwest as increasing ascent develops east into the high plains (currently clear and becoming unstable), with this activity then quickly moving/developing to the northeast into western ND this evening. Much cooler air is pulled south across the Northern Plains in the above S/WV's wake, with highs Tuesday ranging from the 50s northwest to around 70 in the far southeast.
Current mesoanalysis shows weak upper-level flow over our region as a longwave trough sits over the NW CONUS. Going from tonight into Tuesday, lows will reach the lower 70s and upper 60s.
(The rest of this afternoon / tonight ) Scattered CU has developed this afternoon, keeping temperatures a couple of degrees cooler than yesterday at this time.
The high pressure remains solidly in place over the area and is expected to dominate through the middle of the week at least.
Otherwise, high pressure will cover the region through the end of the week. Storm motion so far has mainly been slow to meandering a bit clockwise near the northern extent of the upper ridge center. Tuesday should have less shower/storm coverage and more confined to the northern CWA as the moisture axis looks to shift due to the parent upper ridge having some strengthening and a bit more NW slight progression. Meanwhile, an impressive upper level ridge will maintain control over the East Coast and suppress any chances of rain. Temperatures should slowly trend upward during this time with afternoon highs reaching the 80s for most locations along and west of the Blue Ridge and the lower 90s across the Piedmont.
1243 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 (Today through Tuesday Night) To begin the period, high pressure is currently centered just to the east of the state.
1254 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 (Today through Tuesday afternoon) WV imagery shows a flat upper ridge extending from the Pacific through northwest Mexico and nosing into West Texas and Southeast New Mexico this morning. A trough over the PacNW is forecast to dig east over the next couple of days, transitioning zonal flow aloft to more southwesterly. Temperatures may be a bit cooler than yesterday, but not enough to feel the difference. Tuesday, as the PacNW trough pushes into the upper Midwest, this will suppress the upper ridge to the south.
With the upper trough, currently located over Idaho and western Montana, approaching from the west, fast southwesterly flow aloft continues over the forecast area this afternoon. While surface based storms are unlikely over western South Dakota, expect to see expanding coverage of elevated storms this evening as the low level jet increases to 40-50kts over western South Dakota. The upper trough will cross the forecast area on Tuesday. Late this afternoon into the evening hours as a cold front moves through, thunderstorms with local IFR conditions will develop with erratic gusty winds and hail possible through 06z Tuesday. Behind the cold front, areas of MVFR stratus will develop overnight.
Placement dependent on h5 conditions is sketchy given the high variability from one model to another. A slight uptick in overnight lows will occur Monday night as everyone in our fa is expected to observe low temps in the low to mid 70s. The area of high pressure continues to expand westward. Upper ridge will become more expansive and reach its maximum strength and extent in the middle of the week. The pattern will then change over the weekend as a trough emerges out of the Canadian Rockies and strengthens as it heads into the Great Lakes squelching the ridge entirely.
1224 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 (Today and tonight) Oklahoma will exist between week southwesterly flow aloft to the north and an upper ridge to the south. it will be quiet windy today with a strong lee trough over eastern Colorado.
WV imagery indicates a southwest flow aloft prevailing across the Western High Plains downstream of an upper level trough of low pressure dipping southeast through the Pacific Northwest. Near the surface, a strong lee side trough of low pressure remains anchored in extreme southeast Colorado. An outside chance (20%) for isolated strong to marginally severe thunderstorms remains for portions of southwest Kansas this evening as the SREF indicates an upper level trough digging farther southeast into the Great Basin.
(Today and tonight) On Water Vapor satellite imagery, an upper level trough can be seen over the Pacific Northwest, while upper level ridging existed across Texas. As we go through today and tonight, the trough will push east into Montana/Idaho/Wyoming, while upper level ridging will remain in place across Texas and the eastern CONUS. Finally, expect similar highs and lows today/tonight (highs in the low to mid 90s east, and upper 90s to around 100 west; lows in the low to mid 70s), as the 850 mb thermal ridge stays at around the same strength.
Coldest rural Nevada valleys could approach freezing. A chilly night is in store tonight as lows will fall below freezing for Sierra and colder western Nevada valleys and mid-30s to 40s for all other areas.
A series of inverted troughs will work their way around the northern periphery of a larger gyre centered over central America. The bad news is that we will be in a bit of a funnel of deep Gulf moisture that will setup between the Gyre and the large upper ridge to our east. Tuesday will bring yet another round of rain and storms; however, rain will likely be more confined to the coast as the upper ridge is able to build in some over our interior areas.
1141 AM EDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Typical summertime weather is on tap for today before strong high pressure builds in on Tuesday.
Otherwise, it remains hot with temps in the lower/mid 90s. Southwest winds gusting as high as 30 mph have allowed dewpoints to mix out, in some areas into the lower 60s. Though if clouds clear out during the afternoon, highs may still reach the lower 90s.
Overnight lows will be seasonably warm with deep layer moisture remaining in place and associated dewpoints in the mid/upper 60s helping to support overnight lows in the lower to middle 70s F. By Tuesday, an upper ridge centered near the southeastern CONUS coast will be strengthening and beginning to retrograde, resulting in markedly increased heights across the area. The pattern will remain rather stagnant locally through the week as the deep layer ridge continues to strengthen and expand its influence westward.
(Tonight) High pressure remains in control across the Tennessee Valley for the rest of the day and into tonight. Overnight lows will be mild once again, bottoming out in the low to mid 70s.
The storms are moving slowly north to northwest near the edge of upper Ridge centered over NC. Upper ridge strengthens Tuesday north through the mid Atlantic and west into the eastern TN Valley with little chance of convection over much of the area. There will still be a slight chance of showers and storms near the KY/VA border and in the Big South Fork area on the edge of the building Ridge. Heat Index values were in the lower to mid 90s today and should be in the same range Tuesday.
(This evening through Tuesday Night) Deepening convection across the Bay of Campeche continues to appear more organized within a broad area of low pressure that may eventually become a tropical depression/tropical storm over the next few days. The induced S/SEly flow across our region in response to the deepening low pressure has resulted in tropical moisture surging well inland over much of the western Gulf coast. Low temperatures will generally range from the lower to mid 70s with mostly cloudy skies prevailing overnight. Due to persistent cloud cover, daytime highs will be slightly tempered on Tuesday with mainly upper 80s to near 90s degrees while lows overnight maintain the lower to mid 70s.
However, the highest chance for seeing a shower or two will be at coastal locations.
Shower and thunderstorm coverage will be much less on Tuesday as upper level high pressure builds back west and into the Mid-South.
The upper level ridge continues to pull off to the northeast, while building over the Mid-Atlantic states.
Showers associated with an unseasonably cool upper low will continue today. 30-50% chance of showers and temporary MVFR ceilings at the terminal thru 00Z/Tue, with the highest chance late this morning.
/NEW/ /Through Tomorrow Night/ North and Central Texas remains wedged between a trough to our west and a strong ridge to our east. Partly cloudy skies will prevail through the day with highs in the lower to mid 90s. Potential Tropical Cyclone #1 has formed in the Gulf of Mexico and although it's on track to make landfall in Mexico, some impacts will be felt across our region.
722 PM EDT Mon Jun 17 2024 High pressure, drier conditions, and near normal temperatures are expected through late this week.
Breezy northerly winds decouple in the evening and become light offshore flow component, with locally breezy over the exposed ridges. Temperatures are running up to 7 degrees cooler than yesterday's reading as result. A thermal trough developed near this coast late this morning. Gusts from 20 to 30 mph are expected over the coastal headlands and exposed ridges, locally higher gusts up to 40 mph will be likely over the King Range and Crescent City. Winds are expected to decouple and become light offshore flow in the evening, with locally breezy over the exposed ridges overnight.
High pressure aloft will gradually build through the week, allowing conditions to dry out and warm up. A pattern change is on track for the end of the week as a trough brings wetter and cooler conditions to western Washington.
With the upper trough, currently located over Idaho and western Montana, approaching from the west, fast southwesterly flow aloft continues over the forecast area this afternoon. While surface based storms are unlikely over western South Dakota, expect to see expanding coverage of elevated storms this evening as the low level jet increases to 40-50kts over western South Dakota. The upper trough will cross the forecast area on Tuesday. This evening, as a cold front moves through, thunderstorms with local IFR conditions will develop with erratic gusty winds and hail possible through 06z Tuesday. Behind the cold front, areas of MVFR stratus will develop overnight.
642 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Shower and thunderstorm coverage will be much less on Tuesday as upper level high pressure builds back west and into the Mid-South.
900 PM EDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Deep easterly flow around high pressure off the New England coast will keep min temps quite mild, holding in the upper 70s/near 80 at the coast and mid 70s interior tonight.
935 PM EDT Mon Jun 17 2024 High pressure will remain over the Mid Atlantic and Carolinas through much of this week. The southeast surface flow will continue to bring in warmer, more humid air into the region.
816 PM EDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Rain-free and seasonably warm conditions for much of this week as high pressure sits well offshore.
ARS Shower and thunderstorm coverage will be much less on Tuesday as upper level high pressure builds back west and into the Mid-South.
Low temperatures are forecast to drop into the low to mid 70s under mostly cloudy skies.
609 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 (Tonight) High pressure remains in control across the Tennessee Valley for the rest of the day and into tonight. Overnight lows will be mild once again, bottoming out in the low to mid 70s.
1019 PM EDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Rain-free and seasonably warm conditions for much of this week as high pressure sits well offshore.
Max heat indices this week will range from around 95 to 105, with the highest values in the warning area and in urban locations.
622 PM EDT Mon Jun 17 2024 High pressure, drier conditions, and near normal temperatures are expected through late this week.
707 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 (This evening through Tuesday) In between the upper level ridge (over the southeast coast) and the upper trough (northwest CONUS) sits our forecast area. Flow from the gulf around the western edge of the ridge has brought a field of cumulus to much of Oklahoma and north Texas. A tight pressure gradient at the surface (as a cold front approaches from the north) has been keeping winds gusty today, a pattern which will continue through the night and into tomorrow as well.
750 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 (This evening through Tuesday Night) Deepening convection across the Bay of Campeche continues to appear more organized within a broad area of low pressure that may eventually become a tropical depression/tropical storm over the next few days. The induced S/SEly flow across our region in response to the deepening low pressure has resulted in tropical moisture surging well inland over much of the western Gulf coast. Low temperatures will generally range from the lower to mid 70s with mostly cloudy skies prevailing overnight. Due to persistent cloud cover, daytime highs will be slightly tempered on Tuesday with mainly upper 80s to near 90s degrees while lows overnight maintain the lower to mid 70s.
1032 PM EDT Mon Jun 17 2024 High pressure, drier conditions, and near normal temperatures are expected through late this week.
Cold upper low passed directly over northern CWA zones today with rain and snow showers and local small hail, and was entering southwestern Montana this evening.
637 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 (The rest of this afternoon / tonight ) Scattered CU has developed this afternoon, keeping temperatures a couple of degrees cooler than yesterday at this time.
A positively tilted upper level trough will keep winds elevated wrt the normal diurnal trend overnight into Tuesday.
- Storms expected to develop along a cold front after 21z this afternoon and will become more widespread this evening as they slowly track south. At the surface, cold front extends from southern MN and into far northwest Nebraska with strong return flow remaining across the southern/central Plains. Current thinking is that locations along and especially north of Highway 50 will have the highest rainfall chances. Storms are expected to develop along a southward moving cold front after 21z and will likely linger into the evening hours.
Any weak perturbation riding up and over the ridge will be enough to kick off storms today.
This continued presence and even slight increase in moisture will keep highs a couple degrees lower than yesterday with most places topping out in the low to mid 90s. Low clouds will build back in overnight from the southeast with lows holding in the lower 70s areawide.
100 AM EDT Tue Jun 18 2024 High pressure will remain over the Mid Atlantic and Carolinas through much of this week. The southeast surface flow will continue to bring in warmer, more humid air into the region.
303 AM EDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Rain-free and seasonably warm conditions for much of this week as high pressure maintains influence over the area. Strong subsidence remains in place today with 5h ridge overhead this morning before it drifts slowly north-northwest later today into tonight. Although a strong mid-level subsidence inversion is in place, the core of the warmth under the ridging aloft shifts northwest, allowing temperatures to moderate compared to yesterday. Expect temperatures to be about 1-3 degrees cooler today and tonight compared to the previous 24 hours.
An upper level ridge extending from the eastern Pacific into northern Mexico will expand to the northeast today resulting in rising heights over the region. However, there may be a few weak short wave troughs moving through the flow as winds back more to the southwest this morning. A narrow but strong low level theta-e ridge east of the dryline will be able to pump up mixed layer instability values in excess of 2500 J/kg this afternoon. Temperatures are forecast to be a few degrees cooler today which may make it even more difficult to obtain convective initiation.
With the upper trough, currently located over Idaho and western Montana, approaching from the west, fast southwesterly flow aloft continues over the forecast area this afternoon. While surface based storms are unlikely over western South Dakota, expect to see expanding coverage of elevated storms this evening as the low level jet increases to 40-50kts over western South Dakota. The upper trough will cross the forecast area on Tuesday. Northwesterly winds will become gusty behind a cold front, diminishing Tuesday evening.
127 AM EDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Rain-free and seasonably warm conditions for much of this week as high pressure sits well offshore.
Otherwise, strong upper level high pressure centered over VA/NC border with 500mb heights in the 595 decameter range will amplify to near 600 decameters over the next couple of days as it builds somewhat more to the north, then it should slowly weaken and move southward as we go to the weekend. High temperatures later today with more clouds than sun and slightly lower upper heights should "only" warm to around 90, a few or so degrees cooler than the past few days.
/44/ (This evening through Tuesday Night) Deepening convection across the Bay of Campeche continues to appear more organized within a broad area of low pressure that may eventually become a tropical depression/tropical storm over the next few days. The induced S/SEly flow across our region in response to the deepening low pressure has resulted in tropical moisture surging well inland over much of the western Gulf coast. Low temperatures will generally range from the lower to mid 70s with mostly cloudy skies prevailing overnight. Due to persistent cloud cover, daytime highs will be slightly tempered on Tuesday with mainly upper 80s to near 90s degrees while lows overnight maintain the lower to mid 70s.
Max temps will remain at or slightly below normal with highs in the middle 80s at the Atlantic beaches, upper 80s along the I-95 corridor and into the lower 90s over far inland areas.
An upper level trough remains over the region through this evening leading to periodic showers. A disturbance within the trough will slide southeast across northwest Montana this morning resulting in an uptick of showers for northwest and west-central Montana.
Deep easterly flow around high pressure off the New England coast will keep min temps quite mild, holding in the upper 70s/near 80 at the coast and mid 70s interior tonight.
Upper level picture shows southwest flow over our region, as an upper trough swings over the northern plains today. With the upper wave swinging across the northern plains today and low level northwesterly winds, another cool day is in store, with highs ranging from the low 60s to mid 70s.
1005 PM MDT Mon Jun 17 2024 - An abrupt wind shift and the arrival of cooler air follow passage of a cold front sweeping east across the region through Monday evening.
Ridging will continue to dominate our weather pattern over the next couple of days. As the pressure gradient is squeezed over us between the strong ridge and the deepening low pressure in the western Gulf of Mexico, breezy easterly winds are expected the next few days. With this strong ridging overhead, slightly warmer than average temperatures are expected (lower 90s) over the next couple of days and the strong easterly flow will focus the warmest temperatures along the west coast of Florida.
254 AM EDT Tue Jun 18 2024 High pressure will cover the region through the end of the week. High pressure is building inland from the western Atlantic. Can't rule out some isolated shra/tsra west of the Blue Ridge but overall trend is expected to be down compared to Monday.
411 AM EDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Rain-free and seasonably warm conditions for much of this week as high pressure maintains influence over the area. Strong subsidence remains in place today with 5h ridge overhead this morning before it drifts slowly north-northwest later today into tonight. Although a strong mid-level subsidence inversion is in place, the core of the warmth under the ridging aloft shifts northwest, allowing temperatures to moderate compared to yesterday. Expect temperatures to be about 1-3 degrees cooler today and tonight compared to the previous 24 hours.
112 AM MDT Tue Jun 18 2024 - Much cooler today, with highs in the upper 50s to middle 60s.
A positively tilted upper level trough will keep winds elevated with respect to the normal diurnal trend overnight into Tuesday.
Today Currently early this morning, strong upper ridging is building in with a 500mb high of 5,940m centered just to our east. At the surface, high pressure extends from the Atlantic into the eastern CONUS. Tonight Overnight, the high pressure will continue to intensify and expand from our east with 500mb heights reaching up to 5,960m in our area.
1110 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 (This evening through Tuesday) In between the upper level ridge (over the southeast coast) and the upper trough (northwest CONUS) sits our forecast area. Flow from the gulf around the western edge of the ridge has brought a field of cumulus to much of Oklahoma and north Texas. A tight pressure gradient at the surface (as a cold front approaches from the north) has been keeping winds gusty today, a pattern which will continue through the night and into tomorrow as well.
403 AM EDT Tue Jun 18 2024 An upper level ridge will persist over the region through this week, resulting in widespread near-record temperatures across the area with isolated to scattered thunderstorms possible each day. Going to use some degree of a persistence forecast here on the periphery of the dominant upper level ridge that has provided the first day of heat in what will be a week of above normal temperatures. The more recent forecasts have seen either an increase in the low/mid level moisture supporting convective cloud growth, or that the models are finally resolving what was always going to be there much better. Temperatures on the high side again and will leave the Heat Advisory in place, but precipitation cooling and cloud cover will keep some locations in check in terms of temperatures.
- Warmer temperatures return late this week and continue into the weekend.
Recent radar trends would suggest that the Lower Keys may see some showers prior to dawn. This is also keeping temperatures in the lower 80s with dew points in the mid 70s.