Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
633 AM CDT Sun Aug 25 2024 (Today through Monday) Upper ridge centered over the Kansas-Oklahoma border extended northeastward to Minnesota early this morning. The center of the upper ridge is expected to shift northeastward over the next 36 hours and be centered over northern Missouri Monday afternoon. The upper low will continue to track westward and is expected to reach the Texas coast Monday morning. As the upper low passes west of the area, drier air will attempt to work into the area on Monday from the northeast.
Subsidence in this dry airmass, as well as a strong upper high building in from the SW for the most part has suppressed the development of most daytime heating produced fair weather cumulus. The upper ridge at the 500mb level had maximum heights near 598 decameters over Oklahoma. The models were pretty consistent keeping these heights in the upper 590s to 600 decameters as the ridge moves over Missouri on Monday.
Likewise, northeasterly flow around the upper level ridge will advect dry air into the region above 700 mb. A gradual warming trend is expected through the next 36 hours as the upper level ridge in the Plains drifts slowly eastward.
With the low pressure system exiting this evening, expect clearing and dry conditions.
A low pressure system will cross the region today. A cooler and more stable airmass will follow for early in the upcoming week.
It will warm up quickly with highs reaching the low to mid 90s.
539 AM CDT Sun Aug 25 2024 The heat will build over the next few days as upper level high pressure moves over the region.
734 AM EDT Sun Aug 25 2024 Low pressure dropping out of Canada will bring isolated to scattered chances of showers and potential for a few thunderstorms today.
1032 AM EDT Sun Aug 25 2024 High pressure will allow for conditions to remain fairly dry with a gradual warming trend into mid week. Key Message: 1) Benign conditions continue under high pressure with typical morning valley fog possible. River valley fog has eroded and looking at another mainly sunny day with some afternoon fair wx cu in the mountains as high pressure remains over Virginia. Temps should reach the mid to upper 80s this afternoon for most, maybe 90 at Roanoke with 70s in the higher elevations.
542 AM CDT Sun Aug 25 2024 (Today through Monday Night) A weak upper level low that is currently centered over the northern Gulf will be slowly moving westward towards Texas through the day today and into tomorrow. PVA associated with this disturbance will help to trigger some scattered showers and storms this afternoon, mainly along the coast were higher moisture lingers, but rain chances increase late tonight and through Monday as SE Texas gets positioned on the eastern side of this low. Overnight conditions will continue to be mild and muggy with low temperatures in the low to mid 70s for much of the area, and then upper 70s to low 80s along the coast and Houston Metro.
637 AM CDT Sun Aug 25 2024 (Today through Monday Night) A large area of high pressure is centered over Oklahoma and is affecting much of the central U. An upper trough is in the northwest and will move northeast into the northern Rockies Monday. The upper ridge will remain anchored over the central U. High pressure will continue at the surface today and Monday.
Mid and upper level ridge will continue to build in from the west tonight into tomorrow, with increased subsidence keeping forecast dry Monday. Front currently offshore will weaken and move further to the east tomorrow, with a weakening ridge inland as parent high to the north slides offshore Monday. Easterly, onshore flow will bring dewpoints in the low 70s to coastal areas Monday. High pressure becomes more dominant as the upper level ridge axis moves east through the period.
A mid level ridge across the central U. slides eastward, and troughing over the northeast U. High temperatures remain near normal in the low 90s.
Slightly cooler temps again tomorrow, along with a 20% chance The upper level ridge that sat over the area for the past several days has begun moving north away from the area, not centered over southeastern Kansas. To our southeast, an upper level low is moving west into the Texas gulf coast. This low is expected to continue moving west into southern Texas through tomorrow. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop around this low, with some potentially affect areas south and east of an Ozona to San Angelo to Brownwood line Monday afternoon, along with another few degrees of cooling across the area underneath lower heights, and increased low level moisture.
As a result, regional temperatures at 1 PM were generally 3-6 degrees cooler than this time yesterday. This story wasn't so ironclad in the far SW TX Panhandle where moisture was comparably less allowing deeper mixing, so over time we expect some cumulus to dot these skies ahead of a rogue shower or storm by this evening before this activity lifts north around an upper ridge and out of our area after sunset.
107 PM CDT Sun Aug 25 2024 (Today through Monday) Upper ridge centered over the Kansas-Oklahoma border extended northeastward to Minnesota early this morning. The center of the upper ridge is expected to shift northeastward over the next 36 hours and be centered over northern Missouri Monday afternoon. The upper low will continue to track westward and is expected to reach the Texas coast Monday morning. As the upper low passes west of the area, drier air will attempt to work into the area on Monday from the northeast.
Temperatures continue to warm as upper-level ridge shifts eastward. Discussion: Upper-level ridge will shift eastward tonight and Monday with the 596-598 dam 500mb high centered over Missouri. In addition, boundary layer warming will continue under the influence of the anomalous upper ridge and subsidence with 850mb temperatures increasing slightly on Monday afternoon. Most guidance indicates that max temperatures on Monday will be 2 to 4 degrees warmer than on Sunday afternoon, and this seems reasonable based on the evolving ridge pattern.
The ridge's dominance is on the downturn right now, with a trough progged to come through behind it in the beginning of the work week. Another brief period of ridging mid-week, followed by another trough to end the work week.
1228 PM CDT Sun Aug 25 2024 (Today through Monday Night) A large area of high pressure is centered over Oklahoma and is affecting much of the central U. An upper trough is in the northwest and will move northeast into the northern Rockies Monday. The upper ridge will remain anchored over the central U. High pressure will continue at the surface today and Monday.
(Tonight) Temperatures will cool down into the mid/upper 60s tonight, which isn't bad, but several degrees warmer than last night/this morning. Subsidence from high pressure will keep clouds to a minimum thus conditions dry overnight.
(Rest of today through Monday) High pressure continues to go scortched-Earth across the center of the country today where Heat Advisories and Excessive Heat Warnings are posted from Minnesota down to Texas. Unfortunately, that kind of stuff is headed this way as that high pressure is expected to push this way over the next few days.
DNM The heat will build over the next few days as upper level high pressure moves over the region.
High temperatures will range the low to mid 90s this afternoon with peak heat index values between 102-107 degrees.
Meanwhile, drier air aloft thanks to an H5 ridge moving in from the northwest should keep a lid on rain chances once again tonight into Monday.
Thunderstorm chances will increase heading into the middle of the week, mainly over the higher terrain areas of AZ as moisture increase. The latest water vapor satellite imagery as well as streamline analysis depicts an upper-level trough centered over Nevada, imparting dry southwesterly flow over the region.
Water vapor shows southeast Arizona in between high pressure over the southern Plains and a trough extending from the Pacific Northwest into Nevada. Dry air ahead of the trough is evident on water vapor from western Pima County to Tucson. Storm coverage will remain isolated mainly over the higher terrain through mid-afternoon then increase in coverage especially south and east of Tucson. Monday looks to have a similar setup to today with the trough moving northeastward into Utah and Wyoming. The ridge also gets shoved to the northeast as an easterly wave enters Texas from the Gulf of Mexico. After Monday the trough moves off into the northern Plains with weak high pressure centered over northeast New Mexico and the easterly wave sitting over Texas.
(Today through Monday) An upper level ridge will continue to shift north today while an upper low continues towards the central Texas coast moving west across the Gulf of Mexico. The upper low moves inland tonight into Monday morning with higher coverage of shower and thunderstorm activity expected tomorrow.
Ridging to our north will maintain gentle to moderate easterly breezes through the week.
High pressure is centered to the north with a tropical wave moving west over the FL Keys/South FL. Scattered to numerous storms will develop across the area with the highest chances south through the afternoon and evening hours before pushing offshore and dissipating. Highs generally in the lower to mid 90s with HIs in the 100-105 range, with lows in the 70s through the period. High pressure to the north will keep easterly flow in place across the area through the period, with a weak sea breeze along the coast each afternoon.
(Now through Monday Night) Rinse and repeat forecast through Monday as the large upper ridge just slowly builds over the southeastern US. Temperatures will continue to slowly nudge upwards as the ridge builds in leading to highs mainly in the mid 90s across the area.
(This evening through Monday Night) Upper low spinning across the northern Gulf of Mexico attm, just south of the Southern La Coast.
1257 PM CDT Sun Aug 25 2024 (Today and tonight) The upper ridge will remain the dominant weather feature across the area the next 24 hours, with dry and seasonably hot weather prevailing. The low level thermal ridge will be a bit weaker today, which will result in slightly cooler temperatures compared to yesterday, with highs ranging from the mid/upper 90s across southern sections, to around 100 degrees across the Big Country.
(This evening through Monday) High pressure will remain over the area through the short term with east to northeasterly winds expected. Mostly clear skies will be over central AL today with highs in the low to mid 90s and RH values in the 25-35% range. Monday could see a few more clouds with highs in the low 90s in the east and upper 90s in the west, and RH values in the 30-40% range.
A mid to upper level low will continue to track westward across the northwestern Gulf coast this afternoon and evening, reaching South Texas by early Monday morning.
1115 AM EDT Sun Aug 25 2024 Low pressure dropping out of Canada will bring isolated to scattered chances of showers and potential for a few thunderstorms today.
1150 AM EDT Sun Aug 25 2024 High pressure will allow for conditions to remain fairly dry with a gradual warming trend into mid week. Key Message: 1) Benign conditions continue under high pressure with typical morning valley fog possible. River valley fog has eroded and looking at another mainly sunny day with some afternoon fair wx cu in the mountains as high pressure remains over Virginia. Temps should reach the mid to upper 80s this afternoon for most, maybe 90 at Roanoke with 70s in the higher elevations.
With dewpoints staying in the low to mid 60s, we'll see temps fall pretty close to dewpoint values by sunrise tomorrow. Low level thicknesses increase ever so slightly as the core of the upper ridge wobbles eastward, so high temps may be a degree or two higher. Amplified upper-level ridging will persist through much of the upcoming week, with the ridge axis shifting from the Mississippi Valley toward the Appalachians by late week.
And even if it does erode, it looks to do so behind the cold frontal boundary when the best forcing has already passed. With 0 to 6 km bulk shear vectors remaining near parallel to the cold frontal boundary, damaging winds remain the most likely hazard type overall.
So what's going on is dry air situated along the Appalachian Mountains is being drawn southwestward by both a strong upper level ridge centered near the Central Plains and some version of a TUTT low/inverted trough in the northern Gulf of Mexico. Tropical moisture within the trough in the Gulf has been skirting the northern Gulf Coast and is currently moving across southern MS and LA. The low, and associated ongoing showers seen on radar, are quickly moving westward towards TX. At the same time, the upper ridge to the norther will slide east towards the mid Mississippi Valley and expand slightly farther south behind the upper trough moving into TX.
A trough lifting off of the eastern U. is going to seemingly eat away at the Atlantic ridging pattern. Although the ridge will be weak, it still will have some influence over our local weather, particularly the sustained easterly winds. Ridging over the CONUS will also have an opportunity to prevail, and aid in our easterly flow, but multiple rounds of progressive troughs will have a similar effect.
A high pressure system moves in from the west resulting in a warming trend beginning today. Dry and warmer to hotter weather prevailing early to mid week then a slight cooling trend develops late in the week.
1222 PM CDT Sun Aug 25 2024 (Rest of today through Monday) High pressure continues to go scortched-Earth across the center of the country today where Heat Advisories and Excessive Heat Warnings are posted from Minnesota down to Texas. Unfortunately, that kind of stuff is headed this way as that high pressure is expected to push this way over the next few days.
247 PM EDT Sun Aug 25 2024 (This afternoon through Monday) Omega block in the upper pattern continues, with a large high centered over the Central Plains and a ridge SE across GA. An upper trough extends S from E Canada to the Bahamas with another trough over the Great Basin. Low temperatures tonight will range from the upper 50s in the NE mountains to the lower 70s across the extreme SE. High temperatures Monday afternoon will range from lower 80s in the highest terrain of the NE to the lower to mid 90s elsewhere.
156 PM EDT Sun Aug 25 2024 Low pressure dropping out of Canada will bring isolated to scattered chances of showers and potential for a few thunderstorms today.
1242 PM PDT Sun Aug 25 2024 * A drier and warmer pattern returns this week with temperatures climbing back to near or a few degrees above normal.
The ridge has shifted well north of the area. An upper level low is seen on satellite imagery this afternoon across the northwest Gulf of Mexico. The low will continue west beneath the ridge tonight. Models are in good agreement with the center of the low reaching the mid Texas coast by early Monday morning, continuing inland through the day, and near San Antonio Monday night. An associated weak H85- H7 trough axis will also move inland into during the day on Monday. Now that we are well within the CAM window, confidence has increased that we will see numerous showers initially near the center of the low Monday morning along the mid Texas coast and into the Coastal Plains.
Will keep only a 20 pop north and east of GRR in the vcnty of the weak sfc warm front/trough. - Warming continues, daily afternoon chances for storms ahead High pressure will continue to build over the upper mid west and the Great Lakes region today and through Monday. As the high pressure builds it will be positively tilted as an upper level low moves southward from Canada to over New England on Monday. This warm air advection should translate to max temperatures into the upper 80s and possibly around 90 this afternoon, and into the low 90s tomorrow. So while the building high pressure could stifle convection, the warm daytime temps with humid air could allow for a few isolated showers to develop along the leading edge of those higher PWATs.
256 PM CDT Sun Aug 25 2024 - Dangerous heat continues tonight and into at least Mon, with another Heat Advisory Mon afternoon and early evening - Some storms chances Mon night and again late Tue with passage of a weak front moderating temps somewhat - Additional storm chances Thu and Thu night - Little to no precip Fri through the weekend with more seasonal temps and humidity Iowa will continue to be influenced by a sprawling and anomalous upper level ridge into tomorrow, which is approaching climatological extremes with respect to temps aloft and heights per NAEFS and EC ensemble guidance.
However, the low is beginning to fill and lift north while its attendant cold front washes out over central portions of the CWA. As the low lifts out of the Great Basin tonight and tomorrow, heights quickly rise in its wake and a warming trend ensues.
By this evening into tomorrow, a broad high pressure over the Southern Plains will begin to propogate northeastwards, enhancing low level heights across the Lower Mississippi Valley. By Monday, temperatures will increase into the upper 90s as the high intensifies.
No convection noted in our area this morning based on latest radar and observations, but there are some showers near the center of the upper low in northeast Nevada. The low will move to the northeast into far southern Idaho this afternoon. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms associated with the low will develop in central and s-central Idaho this afternoon. Temperatures will be warmer, but with highs still 10-15 degrees below normal.
308 PM EDT Sun Aug 25 2024 A large area of high pressure centered east of the region will keep dry and hot conditions across the area. A mid level ridge centered across the central Plains will nudge very slowly northeast tonight. Aforementioned mid level ridge will continue to expand slowly northeast through the short term period. Highs on Monday will be in the lower to mid 90s. But with afternoon dewpoints in the lower to mid 60s, heat index values will be at or just slightly higher than the air temperature, so heat headlines will not be issued. It will be a little warmer Monday night with lows in the upper 60s to the lower 70s.
The increased clouds/POPs will keep highs tomorrow in the lower 90s.
Upper level ridging from a high over North Texas is centered over the area and subsidence is preventing convection. An upper low in the Gulf of Mexico will move westward overnight increasing moisture advection to the Permian Basin.
(Rest of today through Monday) High pressure continues to go scorched-Earth across the center of the country today where Heat Advisories and Excessive Heat Warnings are posted from Minnesota down to Texas. Unfortunately, that kind of stuff is headed this way as that high pressure is expected to push this way over the next few days.
High pressure over the mid-Atlantic states ridging southwest over Florida, combined with a tropical wave east of Florida will continue to produce a predominant easterly wind flow across the region. Seasonal temps expected with overnight lows in the 70's and highs in the low to mid 90's on Sunday.
This area of convection is being aided by a pretty strong upper trough that is covering the western quarter of the United States. Models show this trough/close low to weaken and push northeastward overnight and Monday.
616 PM CDT Sun Aug 25 2024 (Rest of today through Monday) High pressure continues to go scortched-Earth across the center of the country today where Heat Advisories and Excessive Heat Warnings are posted from Minnesota down to Texas. Unfortunately, that kind of stuff is headed this way as that high pressure is expected to push this way over the next few days.
714 PM EDT Sun Aug 25 2024 A large area of high pressure centered east of the region will keep dry and hot conditions across the area. A mid level ridge centered across the central Plains will nudge very slowly northeast tonight. Aforementioned mid level ridge will continue to expand slowly northeast through the short term period. Highs on Monday will be in the lower to mid 90s. But with afternoon dewpoints in the lower to mid 60s, heat index values will be at or just slightly higher than the air temperature, so heat headlines will not be issued. It will be a little warmer Monday night with lows in the upper 60s to the lower 70s.
826 PM EDT Sun Aug 25 2024 High pressure will allow for conditions to remain fairly dry with a gradual warming trend into mid week. Key Message: 1) Benign conditions continue under high pressure with typical morning valley fog possible. Ridge sets up across the TN Valley/Gulf Coast States this period expanding east into our area. Lows overnight will be more typical of July and what we had 2-3 weeks ago with 60s to lower 70s especially midweek while highs are going to attain 90+ east of the Blue Ridge Tue-Wed, but except for Lynchburg Wed, no records are expected.
Upper low was in southeast Idaho this evening and moving northeastward.
(This afternoon through Monday) Omega block in the upper pattern continues, with a large high centered over the Central Plains and a ridge SE across GA. An upper trough extends S from E Canada to the Bahamas with another trough over the Great Basin. Low temperatures tonight will range from the upper 50s in the NE mountains to the lower 70s across the extreme SE. High temperatures Monday afternoon will range from lower 80s in the highest terrain of the NE to the lower to mid 90s elsewhere.
A ridging pattern will continue for Northwest California into this coming week bringing drier and warmer air into the region. Short range models continue to indicate interior highs rising into the low to mid 80's this afternoon, nearing 90 in southern Mendocino and Lake counties. Breezy conditions will continue as the backside of the trough exits the region. Moderate 10-15 mph NW winds are expected this afternoon, especially in the higher elevations of Mendocino and Lake counties.
High pressure ridging will maintain a light to east southeast flow which will keep dew points in the 50s to lower 60s overnight.
- Dangerous heat continues tonight and into at least Mon, with another Heat Advisory Mon afternoon and early evening - Some storms chances Mon night and again late Tue with passage of a weak front moderating temps somewhat - Additional storm chances Thu and Thu night - Little to no precip Fri through the weekend with more seasonal temps and humidity Iowa will continue to be influenced by a sprawling and anomalous upper level ridge into tomorrow, which is approaching climatological extremes with respect to temps aloft and heights per NAEFS and EC ensemble guidance.
Our main trigger from earlier, a broad trough, has exited east into the Gulf of Mexico as observed by rising heights on all levels of our evening sounding. This trough is also taking a good chunk of tropical moisture with it. From synopsis, a trough exiting west from our waters will bring rain chances to near normal tonight. Overall ridging to our north will promote gentle to moderate easterly breezes.
Upper trof continues to progress east and out of the forecast area tonight with remaining showers and thunderstorms following suite this evening as activity dissipates from southwest to northeast. Look for overnight low temperatures in the low 30s to low 40s. Temperatures will be a few degrees warmer than the previous day and daytime high temperatures in the low 70s to low 80s can be expected.
427 PM CDT Sun Aug 25 2024 (Tonight) Temperatures will cool down into the mid/upper 60s tonight, which isn't bad, but several degrees warmer than last night/this morning. Subsidence from high pressure will keep clouds to a minimum thus conditions dry overnight.