Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
227 PM CDT Fri Aug 30 2024 Forecast discussion for routine afternoon forecast issuance - A cold front will bring a chance of showers and isolated storms to northern Wisconsin Saturday night.
/96 (Now through Saturday) A mid/upper ridge will continue over the region into the weekend before breaking down Saturday night as a upper trough sets up over the eastern CONUS.
Very dry air in place along with high pressures means some decent temperature swings.
(Through Saturday) Upper level ridging remains in place through Saturday.
1252 PM CDT Fri Aug 30 2024 (Today through Saturday) Key Messages: - Medium chance for showers and storms today; slightly higher Saturday A less active day continues to be expected today as the mid level low pressure continues to gradually move away from the region.
134 PM EDT Fri Aug 30 2024 A stationary front to our south will lift northward as a warm front tonight.
143 PM CDT Fri Aug 30 2024 - Isolated scattered showers and storms this afternoon turn widely scattered tonight as a cold front slowly approaches the region.
(Today through Saturday) A broad ridge is expected to remain in place over the eastern CONUS throughout the day. Dewpoints in the low 70s this afternoon will contribute to heat indices over 100, but not quite reaching Heat Advisory criteria. Rain chances are anticipated to be locally higher in the higher elevations of far northeast Georgia. Overnight, the ridge axis will begin to move away to the east as a trough digs into the Great Lakes and Ohio River Valley. A surface cold front associated with the trough will advance through the Tennessee Valley and towards north Georgia over the course of the day on Saturday. After Saturday morning starts out with low temperatures in the low 70s, highs will rise into the low to mid 90s. With increased cloud coverage, high temperatures will be a couple of degrees cooler than today.
317 PM EDT Fri Aug 30 2024 Cloudy skies continue through tonight with patchy fog and drizzle developing as a warm front moves into the area. Showers and thunderstorms develop Saturday afternoon along a cold front.
Highs today will be in the low to mid 90s, a few degrees above normal for this time of year, with heat indices close to the triple digits in many areas. Lows tonight will be in the low 70s, a few degrees above normal. With so much low level moisture, clouds are expected to increase by Saturday afternoon with high temperatures a degree or two cooler than today, in the low to mid 90s and heat indices in the upper 90s, close to the triple digits.
230 PM EDT Fri Aug 30 2024 Cloudy skies continue through tonight with patchy fog and drizzle developing as a warm front moves into the area. Showers and thunderstorms develop Saturday afternoon along a cold front.
Look for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms into the evening hours, becoming more widespread through the weekend, especially over the higher terrain.
428 PM EDT Fri Aug 30 2024 A warm front will lift northward into the area late tonight and lift to our north on Saturday.
306 PM CDT Fri Aug 30 2024 - A broken line of showers and maybe a storm will gradually slide through se WI this afternoon with the passage of a cold front.
A weak cold front is south of I-20 and will continue to slowly sag south this afternoon. On Saturday, an upper level ridge will remain across the western CONUS, with a weak upper level low across northern Mexico and southern Arizona. This low will help to pull in some mid to upper level tropical moisture from the Pacific. In addition, the aforementioned weak cold front will remain across the region.
Broad high pressure extending across the tropical north Atlantic remains in control of local conditions.
109 PM MDT Fri Aug 30 2024 We are experiencing widespread clear skies today underneath building upper level ridge, with downslope warming expected to push temps toward 90F by late afternoon. Clear skies w/ no chance of precipitation will continue through Saturday night as the ridge remains the dominant feature.
(This evening through Saturday) A weak cold front is slowly moving through the area this afternoon. We'll continue to see a noticeable difference in temperatures tonight and tomorrow behind the weak cold front.
Overall forecast looks on track, however latest model data is resolving slightly cooler temperatures across portions of east Texas and north Louisiana due to an earlier onset of convection. The circulation in the northwestern Gulf of Mexico associated with an upper level trough continues to extend its shear axis as far north as Louisiana and Texas.
- A few showers and storms (20-30% coverage) expected this afternoon with a frontal passage, then high pressure takes over behind passing cool front by tonight.
Have adjusted the highs today from the NBM to increase temperatures north of the Canadian River where clouds have broken up while cooling temperatures a few degrees south of the Canadian River where clouds are more prevalent.
1204 PM CDT Fri Aug 30 2024 Updated aviation portion for 18Z TAF issuance - A cold front will bring a chance of showers and isolated storms to northern Wisconsin Saturday night.
Overnight lows are projected to hover into the low 70s, but with RH values hovering in the 95-100% range, anticipate an oppressively humid night. Strong moisture transport east of the low combined with daytime heating has resulted in a favorable environment for deep convection.
621 PM MDT Fri Aug 30 2024 We are experiencing widespread clear skies today underneath building upper level ridge, with downslope warming expected to push temps toward 90F by late afternoon. Clear skies w/ no chance of precipitation will continue through Saturday night as the ridge remains the dominant feature.
650 PM CDT Fri Aug 30 2024 Updated aviation portion for 00Z TAF issuance - A cold front will bring a chance of showers and isolated storms to northern Wisconsin Saturday night.
635 PM CDT Fri Aug 30 2024 - A cold front Saturday brings additional breezy winds and a chance for showers and an isolated severe thunderstorm.
Temperatures will be similar to last night, with lows in the low to mid 70s.
Stray showers may develop near central Ohio/eastern Ohio near dawn with the slow progression of a cold front to our west.
620 PM CDT Fri Aug 30 2024 (Tonight through Saturday night) A weak upper ridge cover the southern part of the country this afternoon, but there is a weakness over TX. A cold front has moved into west TX and stretches from near Lawton, OK to Fort Stockton to El Paso. The cold front will move into our northern counties Saturday bringing isolated to scattered convection to most of the area.
723 PM EDT Fri Aug 30 2024 (Through Saturday) Upper level ridging remains in place through Saturday.
With that in mind, have kept overnight lows confined to the upper 60s across the higher terrain of northeast AL and southern middle TN and lower 70s along and west of I-65.
644 PM CDT Fri Aug 30 2024 Widespread showers and thunderstorms are in the forecast daily through the long weekend due to a series of slow moving cold fronts.
/SEC (This afternoon through Saturday) Lee trough still situated across portions of northern GA this afternoon. The lee trough is expected to remain in place through tomorrow as a weak frontal boundary approaches from the west.
627 PM CDT Fri Aug 30 2024 (This evening through Saturday) The cold front is well south of the area which has left the region in cooler surface conditions. Regeneration of storms is expected to continue through the evening hours in response to a short wave trough slowly dragging across the area. We will transition to a pseudo rex block pattern over the Intermountain West with an upper low over the southwestern US.
Mejia (Saturday through Friday) The potential for scattered to numerous showers/storms continues on Saturday as the aforementioned cold front slowly sags south.
(This afternoon through Saturday) Lee trough still situated across portions of northern GA this afternoon. The lee trough is expected to remain in place through tomorrow as a weak frontal boundary approaches from the west.
959 PM EDT Fri Aug 30 2024 Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms will be possible until the passage of a cold front.
431 PM CDT Fri Aug 30 2024 - Isolated scattered showers and storms this afternoon turn widely scattered tonight as a cold front slowly approaches the region.
A consensus of guidance from the 12Z global models suggests that the 500-mb anticyclone (centered to our immediate east) will begin to weaken overnight in response to gradual amplification of a northern stream trough over the Upper MS Valley, and this will allow for a modest increase in both SW flow aloft and a southerly jet in the low-levels.
622 PM CDT Fri Aug 30 2024 (This evening through Saturday Night) A disorganized, weak surface trof/low situated offshore will remain the focus for some shower & thunderstorm chances across region over the weekend.
Otherwise, temperatures will steadily fall into the low/mid 70s tonight under mostly clear skies. pdf High pressure over the region will keep dry air (PWATs =< 1.
616 PM CDT Fri Aug 30 2024 - Cooler temperatures will continue through the weekend and the start of next work week (70s and 80s).
For Saturday, we continue to say goodbye to the high pressure as it gets suppressed by a trough digging southward from the Great Lakes area.
754 PM EDT Fri Aug 30 2024 Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms will be possible until the passage of a cold front.
(Today and tonight) Precipitation has ended across the entire area as the associated cold front has departed. With more potential for sunshine, highs will be slightly warmer today, generally in the mid 80s in and around Lubbock.
1140 PM CDT Fri Aug 30 2024 Widespread showers and thunderstorms are in the forecast daily through the long weekend due to a series of slow moving cold fronts.
It'll be another warm and humid afternoon as mid/upper level ridging holds on for one more day. A cold front will begin to work its way through our area this evening and through the overnight hours. Labor Day itself will see the coolest temperatures as lows bottom out around 50 degrees and we only warm up into the low/mid 70s. Unfortunately, the cooler north winds won't bring completely good news.
Cooler northerly flow behind the front along with the increased precipitation and cloud coverage will lead to slightly cooler conditions across much the area today.
1159 PM CDT Fri Aug 30 2024 (This evening through Saturday Night) A disorganized, weak surface trof/low situated offshore will remain the focus for some shower & thunderstorm chances across region over the weekend.
- Temperatures will be a few degrees above normal Saturday (highs generally in the 80s), but the rest of Labor Day weekend will be cooler with highs in the 70s and 80s Sunday and generally in the 70s on Labor Day.
1216 AM MDT Sat Aug 31 2024 - Dry weather continues through Sunday, with only an isolated shower/storm possible over the higher terrain.
A wetter and cooler pattern has arrived across the Midsouth. Rain and thunderstorms will be widespread today through tomorrow, tapering off late Sunday as a cold front moves through the region.
241 AM MDT Sat Aug 31 2024 A relatively quiet weather pattern will continue over our region through the short term period as high pressure aloft prevails. A backdoor wind shift to north/northeast winds today will result in somewhat cooler temps than yesterday with readings in the 80s. Clear skies and dry conditions continue through Sunday night as the ridge remains the dominant feature.
The 90th percentile of the High Resolution Ensemble Forecast (HREF) indicates reasonable, potential locally higher amounts of 2 to 2.
1216 AM CDT Sat Aug 31 2024 - A cold front Saturday brings additional breezy winds and a chance for showers and an isolated severe thunderstorm.
315 AM EDT Sat Aug 31 2024 Cold front exits today. Secondary cold front passes through the southern Great Lakes Sunday. High pressure then dominates through mid week. The passage of the first cold front will bring an airmass change, and this change will be amplified by a secondary cold front that will push through north to south 15-21Z Sunday. Canadian high pressure will gradually build east into the Great Lakes region Sunday night and persist overhead through the short term period. Temperatures will be well below their normal values as a much cooler airmass remains in place behind the reinforcing cold front. Overnight lows Sunday night settle in the low 50s for most, slightly warmer in the mid 50s along the lakeshore.
Temperatures will be slightly below average mainly in the lower to mid 80s. Sunday will largely see similar conditions as today just being slightly warmer and near average.
The weak cold front that moved into the northwest zones earlier today will slide a bit more southeast overnight/Saturday. Lows tonight and Saturday night will be mainly in the lower and middle 70s. Highs on Saturday will range from the middle 80s to the lower 90s.
- After above normal temperatures today, much cooler fall-like temperatures return through Labor Day with highs in the low to upper 70s expected.
220 AM CDT Sat Aug 31 2024 - A cold front will bring scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms to the region, mainly this afternoon and tonight. - It will dry out gradually Sunday, with cooler and less humid conditions expected for Labor Day. A cold front located across the Midwest will push south and east into the region today through tonight. High temperatures today will be a bit cooler thanks to plentiful cloud cover, reaching the middle to upper 80s. However, dew point temperatures will be sticky, generally in the lower to middle 70s. Areas further north look to stay dry with cooler and less humid air filtering southward behind the cold front. High temperatures will reach the middle to upper 80s, but dew point temperatures will drop into the lower to middle 60s from north the south.
A ridge will continue to dominate the weather through this weekend with above average temperatures and mostly clear skies.
402 AM EDT Sat Aug 31 2024 An approaching and crossing cold front will bring the risk for widespread showers and thunderstorms today and into early Sunday. The trend to shift the risk for more potent convection to the south can also be seen in the model QPF as the higher amounts, related to stronger convection, are mainly south and east of Pittsburgh. Cloud cover and warmer air aloft could limit convective coverage and strength. KEY MESSAGES: -Scattered to isolated activity will continue tonight into Sunday morning as a cold front crosses the region.
326 AM CDT Sat Aug 31 2024 Forecast discussion for routine morning forecast issuance - A cold front will bring a chance of showers and isolated storms to northern Wisconsin this evening. and Sunday Sunny skies and warm temperatures are expected today as winds shift to the southwest ahead of an approaching cold front. The right entrance region of a 125 kt jet at 300 mb will move across northern Wisconsin this evening, as the surface cold front moves across the area as well. The atmosphere is rather dry, so there should only be a broken line of showers and thunderstorms ahead of the cold front.
Behind the cold front cooler air looks to settle in for Sunday, with high temperatures in the 70s and lows in the 40s.
(Through Saturday) Upper level ridging remains in place through Saturday. With generally east to southeasterly winds in place along the southern periphery of the high, we'll see minimal convective activity as subsidence acts as a suppressant. Expect overnight lows generally in the low to mid 70s with daytime highs generally in the 90s.
HREF probabilities suggest the highest coverage will occur south of I-44 this afternoon, along a line extending from NW AR zones southwest into S-Central OK. perhaps a touch cooler.
This suggests that today will have the lowest rain chances before they begin increasing again as early as tomorrow. An E to ESE flow will prevail as the subtropical ridge axis remains to the east.
Behind the front, cooler and drier air will bring comfortable temperatures across the state.
Current surface observations show weak winds and fairly uniform temperatures and dew points across the CWA, making it difficult to determine the exact position of the surface cold front.
The large scale pattern features mid/upper troughing centered over Hudson Bay and ridging over the southwest US, placing our region in NW flow aloft.
- A cold front moving through this afternoon and early evening will spark some storms.
A cold front is nearly stalled across northern Oklahoma and Arkansas this morning. This will allow some ridging to push into the region preventing any return flow from Gulf of Mexico to take hold.
1024 PM MDT Fri Aug 30 2024 - Unseasonably warm temperatures and dry conditions continue through at least Sunday with high pressure over Wyoming.
Upper level analysis places broad ridge over the western CONUS, with low over southwestern Hudson Bay. Saturday and Sunday will see continued seasonable temperatures and quiet weather as upper ridge remains to our west and we remain in northwesterly flow.
119 AM EDT Sat Aug 31 2024 An approaching and crossing cold front will bring the risk for widespread showers and thunderstorms today and into early Sunday. The trend to shift the risk for more potent convection to the south can also be seen in the model QPF as the higher amounts, related to stronger convection, are mainly south and east of Pittsburgh. Cloud cover and warmer air aloft could limit convective coverage and strength. KEY MESSAGES: -Scattered to isolated activity will continue tonight into Sunday morning as a cold front crosses the region.
I surmise that this is where the trough axis is currently located for now. As the weak trough wave continues it slow meandering trek to the west northwest, rain and thunder chances will scale back somewhat.
109 AM CDT Sat Aug 31 2024 (Tonight through Saturday night) A weak upper ridge cover the southern part of the country this afternoon, but there is a weakness over TX. A cold front has moved into west TX and stretches from near Lawton, OK to Fort Stockton to El Paso. The cold front will move into our northern counties Saturday bringing isolated to scattered convection to most of the area.
140 AM EDT Sat Aug 31 2024 Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms will be possible until the passage of a cold front. A cold front will be moving through the region Saturday into Saturday night. Temperatures will be warmer southeast of Interstate 71 and cooler northwest of Interstate 71. A weak cold front will be clearing the area to start the period, leading to slightly lower temperatures and dewpoints in northwesterly flow on Sunday.
340 AM EDT Sat Aug 31 2024 - Start of a trend toward cooler and drier air today - Upcoming week features dry weather near/below normal temperatures - Start of a trend toward cooler and drier air today A fair end to climatological summer today, with mostly sunny skies and high temperatures near to slightly above normal. With a synoptic-scale upper level trough digging into north-central Ontario and the Great Lakes, the air behind tonight's cold front will be cooler for Sunday with highs in the 70s. There could be some sprinkles making it down into central Michigan with the cold front early Sunday morning.
This should allow for storms to have a bit more propagation from the higher terrain into the TN Valley. The approaching trough and cold front will keep a chance of showers/storms going overnight in northern sections.
1151 PM CDT Fri Aug 30 2024 - Cooler temperatures will continue through the weekend and the start of next work week (70s and 80s).
1219 AM CDT Sat Aug 31 2024 (This evening through Saturday) The cold front is well south of the area which has left the region in cooler surface conditions. Regeneration of storms is expected to continue through the evening hours in response to a short wave trough slowly dragging across the area. We will transition to a pseudo rex block pattern over the Intermountain West with an upper low over the southwestern US.
1045 PM CDT Fri Aug 30 2024 Updated aviation portion for 06Z TAF issuance - A cold front will bring a chance of showers and isolated storms to northern Wisconsin Saturday night. Tonight and Saturday A drier atmosphere is taking hold across the region late this afternoon behind a cold front, as evidenced by tumbling dew points into the 50s. The ridge will sink south on Saturday as a low pressure system approaches the region from the northwest.
No notable changes to the overall forecast package have been made this morning as the upper level ridge is still expected to continue breaking down while shifting south of the area today. At the same time, an upper trough digging southward into the Great Lakes will nudge a cold front down into the Ohio Valley. With the upper ridge weakening and precip coverage increasing, highs will be several degrees lower than yesterday with upper 80s to mid 90s anticipated. Convective activity is expected to diminish overnight with the loss of daytime heating, but increase again fairly early Sunday morning into the afternoon as the cold front moves through the midstate - with likely pops warranted once again.
The low stratus cigs should slowly lift by mid to late morning, with VFR cigs returning by midday.
605 AM CDT Sat Aug 31 2024 - A cold front will bring scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms to the region, mainly this afternoon and tonight. - It will dry out gradually Sunday, with cooler and less humid conditions expected for Labor Day. A cold front located across the Midwest will push south and east into the region today through tonight. High temperatures today will be a bit cooler thanks to plentiful cloud cover, reaching the middle to upper 80s. However, dew point temperatures will be sticky, generally in the lower to middle 70s. Areas further north look to stay dry with cooler and less humid air filtering southward behind the cold front. High temperatures will reach the middle to upper 80s, but dew point temperatures will drop into the lower to middle 60s from north the south.
434 AM CDT Sat Aug 31 2024 Today and Tonight: In this very stagnant tropical type air mass, a low pressure system sitting just offshore will continue to be the driver of weather across our region today. As is typical with these types of systems, overnight convection has focused closer to the center of the low back around Port Arthur and a few clusters scattered over the Gulf. Early morning water vapor satellite imagery shows the outward pinwheeling flow associated with an upper-level ridge centered around Alabama/Georgia, and this feature will hinder eastward movement of the low pressure system through today. 0 inch PWATs) associated with the ridge should edge into eastern and central Mississippi through the day.
High pressure remains anchored over the region today, along with the dry air mass keeping things rather quiet this week. The southwest quadrant of the high has managed to pull some fragments of tropical moisture northward into the vicinity of the Four Corners.
The trend to shift the risk for more potent convection to the south can also be seen in the model QPF as the higher amounts, related to stronger convection, are mainly south and east of Pittsburgh. Cloud cover and warmer air aloft could limit convective coverage and strength. KEY MESSAGES: -Scattered to isolated activity will continue tonight into Sunday morning as a cold front crosses the region.
The combination of these systems and the abundant moisture situated over the region will help to maintain elevated POPs across the coastal parts of our CWA with the highest numbers generally from around Galveston Bay to Sabine Pass.
(Now through Sunday night) The mid/upper ridge will breakdown as an upper trough over the Great Lakes region digs southward over the eastern CONUS over the weekend. By late this afternoon, the highest coverage (30-40%) will occur along and west of the Alabama River, with isolated coverage across the eastern half of the forecast area.
948 AM CDT Sat Aug 31 2024 Precipitation associated with the coastal trof continues to remain largely offshore this morning although with a few bands and individual cells working inland.