Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A cold front will approach the area on Thursday, with scattered pockets of light rain possible during the afternoon and evening. Low clouds will move in ahead of the cold front, with MVFR conditions expected beginning in the late morning hours and IFR conditions beginning around 03Z. Temperatures remain cold through tonight, with lows in the low to mid 20s inland and upper 20s to low 30s near the coast.
A ridge of high pressure will allow temperatures to increase through the week into the weekend. The high pressure ridge axis remains west of us along the coastline tonight keeping our area in northwest flow aloft. Low temperatures in the morning are forecast to be a little warmer then they were this morning.
An area of low pressure will cross southern Lower tonight. This low will bring another 1-3 inches of synoptic snow the cwa along with one more shot of arctic air.
105 AM EST Thu Jan 18 2024 After a brief warmup to seasonable temperatures today into early Friday an Arctic cold front arrives.
1041 PM CST Wed Jan 17 2024 (This evening through Thursday) Temperatures finally climbed above freezing this afternoon after almost 90 consecutive hours of below freezing temperatures at Abilene and 86 hours at San Angelo. Lows tonight will be much warmer than previous nights, but below freezing temperatures are still expected across the northwest Hill Country and northern Edwards Plateau where winds will be light. Elsewhere, lows will drop off into the lower to mid 30s. Temperatures will a bit cooler in the Big Country- upper 50s to mid 60s.
As the high shifts further away Thursday afternoon, the stationary frontal boundary to the south will lift north as a weak warm front and help spark some rain shower chances as modest moisture advection occurs and the front helps provide some lift. Low-level flow above the surface will be southwesterly as troughing advects eastward, which will act to help steer activity towards the east coast areas. As we move into Friday, the next incoming cold front will start to approach, reaching the Lake Okeechobee area late Friday afternoon and pushing further south into Friday night. Thus, rain chances will still be on the lower side in the slight chance to chance category.
Another strong cold front will move across Oklahoma and northern Texas tonight.
An upper level trough will set up over Lake Michigan with a mid level closed low moving through the Ohio Valley into Friday.
- Warming trend will lead to a stretch of above normal & above freezing temperatures through the end January. This has helped keep temperatures a few degrees warmer than previous nights with some locations still above zero.
A ridge of high pressure will allow temperatures to increase into the weekend.
408 AM CST Thu Jan 18 2024 - A strong cold front brings strong north winds This Afternoon and Evening, followed by much colder air Friday.
528 AM CST Thu Jan 18 2024 - Accumulating snowfall (dusting to around 3 inches) will occur today, with the highest accumulations across central South Dakota.
Expect warmer, drier and calmer weather with a ridge setting up over the region today and Friday. Fair weather will be present today and tomorrow as a ridge builds across the region.
311 AM CST Thu Jan 18 2024 - Accumulating snowfall (dusting to around 3 inches) will occur today, with the highest accumulations across central South Dakota.
Little if any accumulation is expected, but have maintained the Winter Weather Advisory as even a light glaze could cause issues where below freezing temperatures persist. This will be short lived as a strong cold front is expected to move across the state tonight into Friday morning. This front will usher in an additional round of very cold temperatures as Arctic sfc ridging settles over the state from the NW. As temperatures dip down into the lower teens across northern AR Friday morning and NW winds remain around 10-15 mph, wind chills will likely fall below zero.
A cold front is expected to push through the area late this evening into the early morning hours Friday.
412 AM CST Thu Jan 18 2024 - A strong cold front brings strong north winds This Afternoon and Evening, followed by much colder air Friday.
548 AM CST Thu Jan 18 2024 (Today) A s/wv trof will slide across the region this morning without much fan fare, as the best waa/isentropic lift will be focused off to our east at the nose of a strongly veered LLJ. This will be short-lived of course with a strong cold front approaching from the north.
522 AM CST Thu Jan 18 2024 Freezing rain will start up this morning, continuing through the evening hours.
High pressure will allow for dry conditions and lighter winds for the area through Friday.
Freezing rain will start up this morning, continuing through the evening hours.
532 AM CST Thu Jan 18 2024 - A strong cold front brings strong north winds This Afternoon and Evening, followed by much colder air Friday.
616 AM CST Thu Jan 18 2024 (Thursday through Friday) Upper-air analysis from this morning features near zonal flow across our region with a ridge developing across the southwest CONUS. This stationary front will actually push towards our area later this morning as a warm front, which will significantly help our afternoon high temperatures today. Aforementioned low will track east across central Oklahoma through the day with a cold front trailing southwest behind it. By later this evening, the cold front will have almost pushed through the entire area, ushering in some cooler air after a seasonable day. Highs on Friday will range from around 30 degrees across our far northern zones to the mid 40s across our southern zones while lows tonight will range from the mid teens across our far northern zones to the lower 30s across our southern zones.
539 AM CST Thu Jan 18 2024 (Today and tonight) Temperatures will be much warmer today across most of our area, and to a lesser extent in the northeastern Big Country. Southwest winds early this morning will veer to the west today, but a weak cold front will move south into the Big Country by mid-to-late morning and then move little this afternoon. As an upper ridge moves east across the western CONUS, an upper trough will deepen over the Midwest. This will drive a much stronger cold front south across our area tonight.
For reference, the average high this time of year for Medford, Grants Pass and Ashland is the upper 40s with an average high in the low 50s for mid-/late January in Roseburg. For lows, there is generally a 60% to 80% probability for freezing temperatures for east side locations as the forecast favors lows near 30 to 35 degrees.
1024 AM CST Thu Jan 18 2024 - Accumulating snowfall (dusting to around 3 inches) will occur today, with the highest accumulations across central South Dakota.
330 PM EST Thu Jan 18 2024 Low pressure passes well south of New England on Friday and could spread some light snow or flurries into far southern New Hampshire.
A warm front will be maintained over South Florida to round off the week tomorrow, with light to moderate southwesterly flow prevailing through much of the day. Winds will gradually turn out of the west/northwest as a cold front approaches the region, allowing for a gradual cooldown to precede the significant cooldown anticipated over the weekend.
903 AM PST Thu Jan 18 2024 A building ridge will lead to warmer temperatures and weak offshore winds this afternoon.
The main concern over the next 24 hours is the approach of the next strong cold front which will move through overnight.
Abundant moisture in the area today thanks to a warm front moving north over the region. The slightly warmer, moist air moving over the cooler water could lead to the development of sea fog overnight. A cold front will move across the region tomorrow afternoon/evening. However, behind this cold front, a blast of cold air will filter in dropping temperatures for the weekend.
328 PM EST Thu Jan 18 2024 Widespread snow is expected later tonight into Friday night with crossing low pressure.
More widespread snow is expected later tonight through Friday night with crossing low pressure.
/26/ (18Z TAFS) IFR/LIFR cigs will persist through the afternoon across much of N LA/SW AR, near and S of a weak warm front that is lifting N into extreme NE TX and NCntrl LA. This bndry will eventually become stationary later this afternoon along the AR/LA border into extreme NE LA, with the low cigs eventually eroding/scattering out after 21Z into Deep E TX/Wrn LA (including LFK/SHV/possibly TXK). A cold front will begin to shift SE into NE TX/SW AR by late afternoon, which will sink S through the remainder of the region overnight.
The immediate problem comes from some of the higher snow rates occurring across central Iowa during the afternoon/early evening commute.
A few snow showers may also take place across northern Vermont as a trough shifts southward today.
(This evening through Friday) A strong cold front is racing south through the Southern Great Plains today and is expected to reach our northern portions of the forecast area this evening and continue south through the rest of the area overnight.
/26/ (Thursday through Friday) Upper-air analysis from this morning features near zonal flow across our region with a ridge developing across the southwest CONUS. This stationary front will actually push towards our area later this morning as a warm front, which will significantly help our afternoon high temperatures today. Aforementioned low will track east across central Oklahoma through the day with a cold front trailing southwest behind it. By later this evening, the cold front will have almost pushed through the entire area, ushering in some cooler air after a seasonable day. Highs on Friday will range from around 30 degrees across our far northern zones to the mid 40s across our southern zones while lows tonight will range from the mid teens across our far northern zones to the lower 30s across our southern zones.
(Through tonight ) An arctic cold front will surge rapidly south across the area this evening and overnight bringing gusty north winds and rapidly falling temperatures.
Above average temperatures today will transition to cooler temperatures tomorrow. A backdoor cold front will arrive early Friday morning and will drop temperatures close to normal.
These clear out from west to east late tonight into Friday morning as a cold front pushes across the area. This cold front will bring a wind shift with it going from southerlies this afternoon at 5 to 10kts to north-northwesterlies around 10kts during the overnight hours. Rain should quickly come to an end prior to daybreak Friday morning as another strong cold front pushes across the area.
Temperatures this afternoon have risen into the lower 80s, while dew points have held in the mid 70s. A warm front is in the process of lifting northward, hence our winds increasingly becoming more southerly across the region. Said cold front is currently draped across the Red River Valley and will slowly march southeast towards the Florida Keys, late Friday afternoon into tonight.
1125 AM CST Thu Jan 18 2024 (Today and tonight) Temperatures will be much warmer today across most of our area, and to a lesser extent in the northeastern Big Country. Southwest winds early this morning will veer to the west today, but a weak cold front will move south into the Big Country by mid-to-late morning and then move little this afternoon. As an upper ridge moves east across the western CONUS, an upper trough will deepen over the Midwest. This will drive a much stronger cold front south across our area tonight.
Tonight and Friday Afternoon satellite imagery shows lingering stratocu focused mainly across the higher terrain with mid/high level stratus streaking over the area with NW flow aloft. Ridging aloft builds in briefly overnight and into Friday. Moisture trapped beneath the ridge will move across central Idaho perhaps bringing some very light snow showers to parts of the central mountains. Temperatures today and Friday should climb above freezing in most spots with mid to upper 30s likely.
- A strong cold front will race through SW KS Thursday afternoon, with intense north winds into Thursday evening. Temperatures easily reaching the 40s in the southwestern most counties will be short-lived as another sharp temperature gradient cold front sweeps into the northwest counties no later than 2 pm and through the entire area by late afternoon. Efficient melting of the leftover snows will be occurring in advance of this quick re-freezing, that will most likely resulting in prolonged period of black ice on many sheltered residential roads once again.
610 PM CST Thu Jan 18 2024 An arctic cold front will move into the Lower Mississippi Valley later tonight into Friday bringing a return of colder air into much of the weekend.
Rain should quickly come to an end prior to daybreak Friday morning as another strong cold front pushes across the area.
An arctic cold front will move into the Lower Mississippi Valley later tonight into Friday bringing a return of colder air into much of the weekend.
649 PM CST Thu Jan 18 2024 (This evening through Friday Night) The warmth which provided a welcome respite from below-freezing conditions this afternoon will soon be a fading memory, as a cold front advances into the Four State Region from the north and west this evening. As the deepening cold airmass behind the surface boundary pushes south, we will see temperatures swiftly plunge into the lower 20s north to near or just below the freezing mark across our southern reaches. Quiet weather and mostly clear skies will prevail through the day Friday, but pronounced northerly winds will aid in sustaining cold air advection, with afternoon highs struggling to climb above freezing in our northwesternmost zones, and just managing to get into the 40s along and south of the I-20 corridor.
432 PM MST Thu Jan 18 2024 Above average temperatures today will transition to cooler temperatures tomorrow. A backdoor cold front will arrive early Friday morning and will drop temperatures close to normal.
Otherwise, expect mostly sunny skies as highs range from the lower 30s north to the mid and upper 40s south. These breezy winds coupled with these highs from the lower 30s to lower 40s over areas along and north of the Interstate 20 corridor, will yield afternoon wind chill values from the lower 20s to low and middle 30s across central and northern portions of the area Friday afternoon.
149 PM PST Thu Jan 18 2024 A building ridge will lead to warmer temperatures and weak offshore winds this afternoon.
The upper system is expected to get wrapped into the flow around the larger upper Great Lakes trough quickly pushing a cold front through FL tomorrow. A cold front that will move through the area Friday with improving conditions later in the day. Abundant moisture in the area today thanks to a warm front moving north over the region. The slightly warmer, moist air moving over the cooler water could lead to the development of sea fog overnight. A cold front will move across the region tomorrow afternoon/evening. However, behind this cold front, a blast of cold air will filter in dropping temperatures for the weekend.
These recently warmer temperatures will be short lived, as the colder surge of air has begun moving south and east through western Kansas. With this secondary surge of colder air, a cold front will move through overnight tonight into Friday morning, with strong northerly winds behind the front. Friday conditions are expected to be partly cloudy and cooler, with highs in the 20s and low 30s. Northerly winds will gradually decrease throughout the day, becoming calm and variable by Friday evening as an upper level ridge builds throughout the region.
522 PM CST Thu Jan 18 2024 (00Z TAFS) Ahead of an approaching cold front, general VFR conditions will drop to low end MVFR/IFR with increasing coverage of light rain, and possible light fog this evening into the overnight hours. Rain should quickly come to an end prior to daybreak Friday morning as another strong cold front pushes across the area.
Temperatures that soared above the freezing mark this afternoon have remained nearly steady in the middle to upper 30s. There may be brief freezing rain/drizzle here for a bit longer. Temperatures are still expected to dip to or just below freezing from northwest to southeast late tonight. If the winds do not mix this moisture out, we may be dealing with freezing fog in the morning before the Arctic front and gusty winds arrive. Currently, the Arctic cold front was dropping southeast through southern IL and MO and will arrive here during the mid to late Friday morning hours. For now, will maintain the Winter Weather Advisory due to the potential for refreezing of moisture/black ice issues. But if dense freezing fog becomes a problem, we will transition to that.
532 PM CST Thu Jan 18 2024 (Through tonight ) An arctic cold front will surge rapidly south across the area this evening and overnight bringing gusty north winds and rapidly falling temperatures.
A ridge will build across Utah through Friday bringing quiet weather conditions.
506 PM CST Thu Jan 18 2024 (This evening through Friday) A strong cold front is racing south through the Southern Great Plains today and is expected to reach our northern portions of the forecast area this evening and continue south through the rest of the area overnight.
(Today and tonight) In the wake of a strong cold front tracking through our area early this morning, cold and windy conditions can be expected today across much of West Central Texas. Temperatures this morning will start off in the low to mid 20s, with gusty winds from 15 to 25 mph with some gusts as high as 40 mph. Even though there will be mostly sunny skies today, temperatures will struggle to reach into the mid 30s to mid 40s this afternoon, keeping the high temperatures for today below seasonal normals.
(Today through Saturday afternoon) A cold front is currently moving through the Permian Basin. The upper trough that brought the cold front is already moving into the Great Lakes and a western U. ridge is moving into the Great Plains, thus there is no lift or moisture available in the short term for any precipitation.
1100 PM CST Thu Jan 18 2024 (This evening through Friday) A strong cold front is racing south through the Southern Great Plains today and is expected to reach our northern portions of the forecast area this evening and continue south through the rest of the area overnight.
Air temps remain above freezing in the short term and we have issued a Dense Fog Advisory with this update for a small area between Hwy 82 in S AR, down to along and south of I-20 in N LA until midnight. By around midnight sub freezing temps will feed down across S AR into N LA with some diminishing fog freezing for a short time.
Temperatures will be a few degrees warmer across western Wisconsin and in the urban heat island of the Twin Cities metro.
139 AM CST Fri Jan 19 2024 - A light wintry mix of freezing drizzle/fog with a light dusting of snow combines to continue potential travel hazards through this morning's commute. Amounts will be very light/dusting but in sub freezing temperatures.
This is likely light freezing rain. However, latest models reduce the extent of it for tonight and Friday, removing it from the Lower Treasure Valley and southern and central Malheur County. However, with temperatures below freezing many roads will still be covered with ice and snow and will remain hazardous through Friday morning. The Winter Weather Advisory for freezing rain remains in effect in the Upper Weiser River Valley and in Baker County. Snow levels 3500-5000 feet MSL, with areas of freezing rain in lower valleys including near KBKE and KONO.
The thought is by midnight, portions of S AR may see improvement in density while the freezing line eases down across Hwy 82.
Unfortunately, a cold front arrives overnight to ruin things. CAA will usher in a hard freeze against the higher terrain.
(Today and tonight) A chilly airmass has once again returned to the region behind a strong overnight cold front with low temperatures this morning as much as 50 degrees colder than the mild highs observed yesterday afternoon. Very little change in the synoptic pattern and the expansive high pressure over the central CONUS will allow dry conditions to continue and the cool airmass to remain in place locally over the next 24 hours, with daytime highs generally 15 to 20 degrees below normal today and lows in the teens area-wide tonight.
1100 PM CST Thu Jan 18 2024 (06Z TAFS) Ahead of an approaching cold front, general VFR conditions will drop to low end MVFR/IFR, with increasing coverage of light rain, and possible light fog.
A weak warm front is to our north, with light mostly southeast winds, temperatures in the mid 70s and dewpoints not very far below at all. This could set up weak convergence near and west of the Lower Keys during the early morning hours. A warm front draped across the Straits of Florida will slowly lift northward through the overnight, with slackened east to southeast breezes veering to the south, then eventually southwest, through Friday afternoon. A second, much stronger cold front will push through the Florida Keys coastal waters Friday evening and Friday night. As strong high pressure builds over the Tennessee Valley behind the front and slowly slides eastward to the Mid- Atlantic, strong northerly breezes will veer to the northeast to east over the weekend.
1046 PM CST Thu Jan 18 2024 (The rest of tonight) The Arctic cold front has moved into northeastern Oklahoma over the last hour and will continue to surge southeastward through the rest of the evening and overnight.
We do expect some light additional snowfall mainly along the Cumberland Plateau this morning as the upper trough comes across Middle Tennessee. But our most pressing concern is travel impacts as sub-freezing air spreads across the mid state during the next few hours and freezes whatever moisture is left on the roads. Surface winds have increased to the point that freezing fog is no longer much of a concern.
(The rest of tonight) The Arctic cold front has moved into northeastern Oklahoma over the last hour and will continue to surge southeastward through the rest of the evening and overnight.
1141 PM CST Thu Jan 18 2024 An arctic cold front will move into the Lower Mississippi Valley later tonight into Friday bringing a return of colder air into much of the weekend.
A subtle perturbation is noted on water vapor satellite imagery in the NE/KS vicinity, with an associated sfc cold front along the KS/NE border. Strong CAA behind the cold front will bring in an Arctic air mass with temperatures falling to the -5 to +5 range by early Friday morning.
Warm front has been struggling to move north and appears to still be just south of the forecast area across south Florida. This boundary should drift north some this morning ahead of the cold front approaching from the northwest. The cold front will then move southeast across the area this afternoon and early evening bringing an end to any showers. Behind the front cold high pressure will build into the area this weekend as it moves across the eastern U. with breezy northerly winds ushering in our next round of cooler drier air.
Later this afternoon into the evening, a cold front will begin to work south over the area and bring another line of showers.
513 AM MST Fri Jan 19 2024 After an unseasonably warm day yesterday, a cold front will push in east to west over the area this morning bringing many locations near or below normal temperatures this afternoon.
A strong upper ridge is building into the Rockies today from the west. Strong warm air advection is progged to accompany this ridge and is already evident as strong warm advection is occurring at 700mb in our western zones this morning. The warm air really pushes in Saturday as the upper ridge axis slides right over us. Highs will be in the lower 40s west to lower 20s east. A weak short wave moves through the ridge Saturday night. However, we may see some very light precipitation over the far east away from the downslope off the foothills, and combined with lingering arctic air in the eastern river valleys, may result in some very light and patchy freezing precipitation.