Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
339 AM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025 * Pleasant conditions today, with near-normal highs in the mid 80s, but comfortable dew points in the low 60s. Upper level pattern has broadly transitioned from the zonal flow of recent days to more of a western ridge - eastern trough pattern, though a weakly closed low is situated just off the California coast as well. But again, more comfortable with the lower dew points. Upper level pattern gradually shifts eastward through the week, pushing ridging across the central CONUS.
An upper-level high has moved into the High Plains, which will keep our potential for organized and severe convection pretty low. Tomorrow, the high looks to be even stronger over the CWA, basically eliminating any potential for precipitation. With the high extending down to the surface and being off to the east, we are expecting southerly winds throughout the day today. The winds and clear skies will help us rebound from our recent cold front as highs look to warm to around 90. However, clear skies will once persist and temperatures look to warm into the low to mid 90s.
Updated at 142 AM CDT TUE JUL 1 2025 - There is a Marginal (Level 1 out of 5) risk for severe storms this afternoon and evening ahead of a cold front. (Today through Wednesday) Upper-level forcing will increase quite a bit today as the base of a longwave trough axis advances across the Southeast with a weak cold front set to arrive during the day. Moisture content will decrease rapidly from north to south during the day on Wednesday as dry air advection increases downstream of a mid-level ridge axis over the Plains.
200 AM EDT Tue Jul 1 2025 Showers and thunderstorms will continue today with a crossing cold front. High pressure will return dry weather to the region Wednesday.
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: An upper ridge continues building across the region with daytime temperatures rising.
The Upper Keys picked up 1 to 3 inches, with the Lower Keys picking up a half to one inch thus far. As this feature pulls further away from the Keys, the low level steering flow will go more southerly. This coupled with relatively drier air pivoting around the periphery of a sprawling Atlantic Ridge, will provide lower rain chances this afternoon into the evening. Meanwhile, lurking along the entire Eastern Seaboard is a quasi- stalled trough and associated surface boundary that stretches into the northeastern Gulf.
626 AM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025 Updated at 621 AM CDT TUE JUL 1 2025 - There is a Marginal (Level 1 out of 5) risk for severe storms this afternoon and evening ahead of a cold front. (Today through Wednesday) Upper-level forcing will increase quite a bit today as the base of a longwave trough axis advances across the Southeast with a weak cold front set to arrive during the day. Moisture content will decrease rapidly from north to south during the day on Wednesday as dry air advection increases downstream of a mid-level ridge axis over the Plains.
High pressure aloft continues to slowly slide east and into western portions of the forecast area. While this is happening, a passing trough to our north will push a frontal boundary south and into at least the northern half of the forecast area later this afternoon into this evening. Hot humid conditions persist across the region today, with highs this afternoon peaking in the low and middle 90s. When factoring in dew points in the low and middle 70s, heat index values will approach 105F across a large portion of the CWA this afternoon.
Otherwise Tuesday will be a warmer day with highs well into the 80s.
Clear skies and quiet conditions early this morning as an upper level ridge axis remains over the region today. Warmer temperatures are expected this afternoon with highs in the 80s to low 90s, warmest below 4500 feet. This should be enough shear to justify a few strong thunderstorms, but coverage will be limited as the upper level ridge axis and associated midlevel subsidence will remain over the area.
529 AM MDT Tue Jul 1 2025 - Increasing moisture will keep afternoon showers and storms in the forecast each day, favoring the higher terrain initially, before spreading over adjacent valleys. A ridge of high pressure remains overhead, while a closed low spins off the coast of California. A little wave rounding the ridge has contributed to lingering clouds and even a few light showers as well. With the expected uptick in afternoon clouds and convection, temperatures will run a couple degrees cooler today, though still 3-5 degrees above normal. By tomorrow morning, the low to our west will have moved onshore, nudging the ridge slightly to the east. Low pressure over California and high pressure over the Gulf will keep deeper moisture moving into the CWA thanks to flow around these two features.
522 AM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025 - Tranquil weather today - Temperatures rising into holiday weekend - Storm chances increase into holiday weekend Weak high pressure will dominate Kansas weather today, so we can expect quiet conditions. Temperatures will perhaps be a touch warmer than yesterday, but most of the forecast area will still struggle to reach the 90s as NBM probabilities greater than 90 degrees are mostly less than 20%, with a few exceptions to the north and southeast. Winds will be light for most, generally less than 15 mph given high pressure.
604 AM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025 - A couple nice days with slightly cooler temperatures in store today and Wednesday. The mid to upper level trough that helped push yesterday's modified cold front through has shifted east of the region and is now tracking into the central Great Lakes. A western ridge remains mostly in place over the next couple of days with a cut-off low feature off the coast of central California.
Ridging aloft will gradually intensify through the middle of the week after a weak, meandering frontal boundary keeps some lingering rain chances through tomorrow. There is also the potential for some convection along the I-20 corridor during the afternoon hours, however, confidence is on the lower side, so I have only mentioned VCTS at this time.
543 AM EDT Tue Jul 1 2025 - Less humid air arrives through the day with highs in the low to mid 80.
We begin the near term with the forecast area at the base of a weakness in the mid level geo-potential height field, south of a more defined deep layer trof of low pressure pivoting eastward over the Mid MS/Ohio River Valley. The high level flow is increasingly diffluent, set up by the local area on the eastern flank of a northwest to southeast oriented ridge axis from the plains into the western Gulf.
Temperatures are in the lower to middle 80s with west to northwest winds of 10 to 20 mph. Otherwise Tuesday will be a warmer day with highs well into the 80s.
Updated at 1200 PM CDT TUE JUL 1 2025 - There is a Marginal (Level 1 out of 5) risk for severe storms through this evening ahead of a cold front.
That being said, north of the surface boundary, a weak shear axis lingering behind the surface forcing is tucked within a marginal vorticity max around the base of the 925- 850mb trough.
An upper trough is swinging through the region, increasing storm chances from west to east. Tonight, the cold front is still on track to clear Middle TN between 03-05z, and with that, the beginning of a drier pattern for the region.
257 PM EDT Tue Jul 1 2025 A cold front extends from western Pennsylvania to central Tennessee.
245 PM EDT Tue Jul 1 2025 A cold front will move east across the area this afternoon. High pressure will build into the region tonight and Wednesday behind the cold front.
1156 AM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025 - Tranquil weather today - Temperatures rising into holiday weekend - Storm chances increase into holiday weekend Weak high pressure will dominate Kansas weather today, so we can expect quiet conditions. Temperatures will perhaps be a touch warmer than yesterday, but most of the forecast area will still struggle to reach the 90s as NBM probabilities greater than 90 degrees are mostly less than 20%, with a few exceptions to the north and southeast. Winds will be light for most, generally less than 15 mph given high pressure.
From synopsis, broad low-level ridging will continue to rebuild over the North Atlantic and support gentle to moderate east to southeasterly breezes across Florida Keys coastal waters, veering to the southeast to south and modestly slackening throughout the week. The Upper Keys picked up 1 to 3 inches, with the Lower Keys picking up a half to one inch thus far. As this feature pulls further away from the Keys, the low level steering flow will go more southerly. This coupled with relatively drier air pivoting around the periphery of a sprawling Atlantic Ridge, will provide lower rain chances this afternoon into the evening. Meanwhile, lurking along the entire Eastern Seaboard is a quasi- stalled trough and associated surface boundary that stretches into the northeastern Gulf.
Aloft, the H500 ridge remains stretched from the Inter-mountain west to the Mid-Mississippi Valley. Temperatures have been seasonable, in the lower to mid 80s F. Previous discussion touched on the uncertainty in the break down and eastward shift of the mid-level ridge axis. This has been precipitated by the stout western trough's onshore arrival to the California Coast.
223 PM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025 * Pleasant conditions today, with near-normal highs in the mid 80s, but comfortable dew points in the low 60s. Aloft, the H500 ridge remains stretched from the Inter-mountain west to the Mid-Mississippi Valley. Temperatures have been seasonable, in the lower to mid 80s F. Previous discussion touched on the uncertainty in the break down and eastward shift of the mid-level ridge axis. This has been precipitated by the stout western trough's onshore arrival to the California Coast.
- Turning warmer and more humid for the start of the 4th of July holiday weekend. Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Upper-level flow across the western Great Lakes is in the process of becoming more zonal this afternoon as mid- upper level trough axis that crossed last night continues to exit stage right. At the surface, high pressure dominates through tonight.
(Through Tonight) More pleasant summer conditions persist this afternoon with cooler temperatures (upper 80s) and resulting heat indices than recently observed. Still expect much of the area to remain dry this afternoon with post-frontal high pressure overhead. (Tomorrow through Tuesday) High pressure will shift eastward over the next couple days allowing moisture to gradually return to the area.
(Tonight through Wednesday night) After a rainy Tuesday, precipitation chances are expected to rapidly drop off tonight as Tropical Storm Barry remnants continue to move out of the region and high pressure begins to settle into the area. Lows will gradually warm from the low to mid 70s tonight to the mid to upper 70s tomorrow night.
Quiet and cooler for the end to the week into the weekend.
135 PM EDT Tue Jul 1 2025 - Less humid air arrives through the day with highs in the low to mid 80.
From synopsis, broad low-level ridging will continue to rebuild over the North Atlantic and support gentle to moderate east to southeasterly breezes across Florida Keys coastal waters, veering to the southeast to south and modestly slackening throughout the week.
As we head into the Independence Day weekend, a trough will linger over the region, bringing a daily chance of thunderstorms.
1219 PM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025 * Pleasant conditions today, with near-normal highs in the mid 80s, but comfortable dew points in the low 60s. Upper level pattern has broadly transitioned from the zonal flow of recent days to more of a western ridge - eastern trough pattern, though a weakly closed low is situated just off the California coast as well. But again, more comfortable with the lower dew points. Upper level pattern gradually shifts eastward through the week, pushing ridging across the central CONUS.
(Through Wednesday) Broad trough across the eastern CONUS will help to push a weak frontal boundary into the forecast area on Wednesday.
A trough passing to our north will continue pushing a frontal boundary south and into the forecast area through Wednesday morning. Otherwise, look for another mild night, despite some slightly drier air beginning to advect into the region in the wake of the front, as lows fall into the low and middle 70s.
Additional isolated showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening across SE Oregon and the higher terrain of SW Idaho with gusts to 45 kt.
High pressure aloft will continue warm and dry conditions across the area for the next couple of days.
1132 AM MDT Tue Jul 1 2025 - Increasing moisture will keep afternoon showers and storms in the forecast each day, favoring the higher terrain initially, before spreading over adjacent valleys. A ridge of high pressure remains overhead, while a closed low spins off the coast of California. A little wave rounding the ridge has contributed to lingering clouds and even a few light showers as well. With the expected uptick in afternoon clouds and convection, temperatures will run a couple degrees cooler today, though still 3-5 degrees above normal. By tomorrow morning, the low to our west will have moved onshore, nudging the ridge slightly to the east. Low pressure over California and high pressure over the Gulf will keep deeper moisture moving into the CWA thanks to flow around these two features.
Rather messy pattern setting up for the next several days as upper level troughing sets up along the eastern seaboard with a weakening cool front moving into the southeast states.
A few short-lived showers have developed over the past couple of hours, but have dissipated thanks to slightly warmer air moving in at the mid levels.
221 PM EDT Tue Jul 1 2025 Showers and thunderstorms will continue today with a crossing cold front. High pressure will return dry weather to the region Wednesday.
1218 PM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025 - A couple nice days with slightly cooler temperatures in store today and Wednesday. The mid to upper level trough that helped push yesterday's modified cold front through has shifted east of the region and is now tracking into the central Great Lakes. A western ridge remains mostly in place over the next couple of days with a cut-off low feature off the coast of central California.
Heat returns to the forecast area as the PacNW finds itself wedged between high pressure ridging to the north and a cutoff low to the south over California. Such a setup is ripe for not only hot temperatures through Tuesday, but also for elevated thunderstorms for central Oregon, spreading eastward through Wednesday as the northeastward progression of this low amplifies SW flow and thus moisture advection over the forecast area. Once high pressure is nudged aside heading into Wednesday, temperatures are expected to trend toward more seasonable readings. PWATs are on the higher end (0. On Wednesday, winds increase as high pressure breaks down.
312 PM EDT Tue Jul 1 2025 An upper trough and associated cold front will move through the area later tonight into tomorrow. High pressure will build over the area later this week into the weekend.
244 PM EDT Tue Jul 1 2025 High pressure moves into the region and the area dries out. High pressure remains in control and dry conditions continue- afternoon dew points in the low to mid 60s with daytime high temperatures reaching the mid 80s.
With a couple of remnant outflow boundaries in place and an approaching cold front from the north and west, these features will serve as a focus for convection to develop on later this afternoon.
227 PM MDT Tue Jul 1 2025 - Afternoon showers and thunderstorms are expected along the higher terrain and valleys through this evening and again on Wednesday. radar shows showers and thunderstorms developing across the higher terrain this afternoon. Weak steering flows aloft will keep thunderstorms anchored to the higher terrain. broad upper ridging will remain place across the Rockies through tonight. Expected continued showers and thunderstorms across the higher terrain into the evening hours. the upper pattern will remain nearly steady, with high pressure drifting slowly east into Western Kansas by late afternoon.
144 PM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025 - Warming temperatures through the end of this week with hot temperatures reaching the low to mid 90s by the Fourth of July.
Showers and thunderstorms ahead of a cold front this afternoon into this evening.
Remnants of Barry will continue to stream northward over the brush country and Rio grande plains this afternoon through Wednesday, steered around the western periphery of the mid level ridge parked over Southeast TX.
Key Points: * Cold front crosses later today into tonight. Showers and scattered thunderstorms will continue to sprout up across the area as a cold front slowly approaches from the west this morning. Showers and storms taper off behind the front tonight, then high pressure begins to creep in from the southwest and allows drier conditions to return to the majority of the area on Wednesday. Key Point: * High pressure brings drier conditions for the second half of the work week.
Latest mesoanalysis and short-term forecast guidance indicating that round the 4-corners H5 ridge a weak-wave impulse will transcend over our forecast area ahead of which there are already indications of a weak surface frontal boundary along the front-range collocated with low-level moisture transport. Yet against N drifting sub-tropical energy over OK / TX ahead of a dominant trof axis over CA, higher mid-level heights are maintained over a good chunk of our area and areas around northeast KS look to be in favorable regions of subsidence. Highs into the low 90s with mostly clear conditions prevailing.
120 PM EDT Tue Jul 1 2025 A cold front will move through the region tonight bringing an end to any showers and thunderstorms. Wednesday should be a pleasant day under high pressure.
From synopsis, broad low-level ridging will continue to rebuild over the North Atlantic and support gentle to occasionally moderate east to southeasterly breezes across Florida Keys coastal waters, veering to the southeast to south and modestly slackening throughout the week.
724 PM EDT Tue Jul 1 2025 A weak cold front will move across the eastern Great Lakes today, with a few more widely scattered showers and thunderstorms along with plenty of rain free time. High pressure will then bring a return to dry weather and somewhat lower humidity tonight through Wednesday.
916 PM EDT Tue Jul 1 2025 An upper trough and associated cold front will move through the area later tonight into tomorrow. High pressure will build over the area later this week into the weekend. As we continue through this evening, light to moderate stratiform rain continues for a good portion of the the area along and east of the Blue Ridge.
721 PM EDT Tue Jul 1 2025 High pressure moves into the region and the area dries out. High pressure remains in control and dry conditions continue- afternoon dew points in the low to mid 60s with daytime high temperatures reaching the mid 80s.
701 PM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025 (Tonight through Wednesday night) After a rainy Tuesday, precipitation chances are expected to rapidly drop off tonight as Tropical Storm Barry remnants continue to move out of the region and high pressure begins to settle into the area. Lows will gradually warm from the low to mid 70s tonight to the mid to upper 70s tomorrow night.
656 PM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025 Updated at 637 PM CDT TUE JUL 1 2025 - There is a Marginal (Level 1 out of 5) risk for severe storms through this evening ahead of a cold front.
704 PM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025 We begin the near term with the forecast area at the base of a weakness in the mid level geo-potential height field, south of a more defined deep layer trof of low pressure pivoting eastward over the Mid MS/Ohio River Valley. The high level flow is increasingly diffluent, set up by the local area on the eastern flank of a northwest to southeast oriented ridge axis from the plains into the western Gulf.
752 PM EDT Tue Jul 1 2025 A cold front will move east across the area this afternoon. High pressure will build into the region tonight and Wednesday behind the cold front.
Isolated to scattered showers possible this weekend as low pressure potentially develops along the remnant frontal boundary. Otherwise, widespread cloud cover overnight should limit radiational cooling and expect lows to be in the lower 70s. Key Message(s): - Widespread showers and storms - Localized flash flood risk mainly in flood prone areas An upper trough will shift into the eastern US on Wednesday. The associated cold front will sag into the Southeast providing surface convergence to aid in convective initiation during the afternoon. With widespread rain expected, temperatures should be a bit cooler Wednesday with highs in the mid to upper 80s.
Overnight lows will cool into the mid to upper 60s, several degrees cooler than recent nights and will begin a temporary but welcomed change to the area. Highs should reach the mid to upper 80s during the afternoon as northerly flow maintains a cooler and drier airmass over much of the eastern CONUS.
Isolated showers and thunderstorms to continue through 04Z this evening across SE Oregon and the higher terrain of SW Idaho with gusts to 45 kt.
Lacy (Through Tonight) More pleasant summer conditions persist this afternoon with cooler temperatures (upper 80s) and resulting heat indices than recently observed. Still expect much of the area to remain dry this afternoon with post-frontal high pressure overhead. (Tomorrow through Tuesday) High pressure will shift eastward over the next couple days allowing moisture to gradually return to the area.
1011 PM EDT Tue Jul 1 2025 A cold front will move east across the area this afternoon. High pressure will build into the region tonight and Wednesday behind the cold front.
612 PM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025 - Warming temperatures through the end of this week with hot temperatures reaching the low to mid 90s by the Fourth of July.
957 PM EDT Tue Jul 1 2025 High pressure moves into the region and the area dries out. Cold front continues to slowly work its way through our CWA. High pressure remains in control and dry conditions continue- afternoon dew points in the low to mid 60s with daytime high temperatures reaching the mid 80s.
733 PM EDT Tue Jul 1 2025 A cold front will move through the region tonight bringing an end to any showers and thunderstorms. Wednesday should be a pleasant day under high pressure.
A weak, dry trough will pass over the region towards the end of the week, promoting onshore flow and bringing in cooler temperatures through the holiday weekend.
945 PM EDT Tue Jul 1 2025 A cold front is expected to move into the area Wednesday and Wednesday night and could then linger along or just off the coast through the weekend. Tonight: Aloft, a mid-lvl trough will continue to advance east across the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys and towards the East Coast through the night. At the sfc, a cold front will make progress towards the region, but will stay west of the local area while high pressure remains anchored offshore. Temperatures will only fall to the low to mid 70s, except upper 70s at the immediate coast, with cloud cover and 5-10 mph southerly wind occurring during the second half of the night.
524 PM MDT Tue Jul 1 2025 - Afternoon showers and thunderstorms are expected along the higher terrain and valleys through this evening and again on Wednesday. radar shows showers and thunderstorms developing across the higher terrain this afternoon. Weak steering flows aloft will keep thunderstorms anchored to the higher terrain. broad upper ridging will remain place across the Rockies through tonight. Expected continued showers and thunderstorms across the higher terrain into the evening hours. the upper pattern will remain nearly steady, with high pressure drifting slowly east into Western Kansas by late afternoon.
1010 PM EDT Tue Jul 1 2025 A cold front will move through the region Tuesday night into Wednesday.
720 PM EDT Tue Jul 1 2025 (Through Wednesday) Broad trough across the eastern CONUS will help to push a weak frontal boundary into the forecast area on Wednesday.