Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1048 AM PDT Sun Jul 6 2025 * Our warming trend will continue through the first half of the week as high pressure builds into the region. Ridging will continue to push into the area from the southeast, allowing for dry conditions and our warming trend to continue through the middle of the week.
VFR, with cumulus buildups this afternoon over the higher terrain.
The upper pattern is defined by an upper high extending across Sonora Mexico into southern New Mexico. Given the lower atmosphere moisture, the 06/12Z HREF members are suggesting the majority of the storms today will be across Santa Cruz into Cochise county with a 10-30% chance for 3-hr ensemble probability matched mean values (40-km neighborhood probability) exceeding an inch confined to Santa Cruz/SW half of Cochise counties. the main theme this week will be an expanding strong ridge of high pressure aloft over the state resulting in very hot, near record high temperatures mid-week and a low grade monsoon pattern.
(This afternoon through Monday night) Weak upper ridging has retreated westward and a second upper ridge has built across the western Atlantic. This has left an overall weakness/weak troughing in the upper levels across the local area and will lead to a typical summertime convective pattern with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms each afternoon. Temperatures will continue to be near to slightly above normal with overnight lows in the mid to upper 70s and daytime highs in the low to mid 90s.
146 PM PDT Sun Jul 6 2025 High pressure will strengthen over the area by the middle of the week, leading to hotter weather for inland areas. The high pressure will weaken slightly, keeping the deserts slightly warmer than average and closer to average elsewhere. WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO Our area continues to be sandwiched in between low pressure off the Central Coast and high pressure NW Mexico (Sonora, Chihuahua). The area of low pressure will stick around one more day where the marine layer will be fairly similar to what it was this morning with far western valleys and coastal areas seeing low clouds and fog.
152 PM PDT Sun Jul 6 2025 * Temperatures will continue to warm through the first half of the week as high pressure builds into the region. Ridging will continue to push into the area from the southeast, maintaining our warming trend through mid-week.
Some decrease in high temperatures is possible later in the week as weak upper troughing moves in from the west and rain chances increase ever so slightly. This is in response to the upper ridge building over the eastern CONUS while the Bermuda high remains anchored offshore. Ensembles suggest weakening of the upper trough and continuation of southwest flow aloft across the region. At the surface, the region may see the return of lee-side troughing east of the Appalachians, leading to slightly higher rainfall chances each afternoon and evening. Height decreases will allow afternoon temperatures to decrease slightly into the low to mid 90s, which should also help heat indices retreat from widespread triple digits.
A weak cold front will move into northern Indiana this afternoon and provide the impetus for storm development. For this upcoming week, the subtropical ridge over the southwest CONUS will stay relatively subdued as an abundance of energy races over the top of the ridge into the Midwest and Upper Midwest. As for temperatures, a weak cold front will do little to bring relief to the hot conditions except for being a few degrees cooler Monday. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon at SBN, but will take some time to get to FWA, likely closer to 22z as the cold front swings through.
This boundary will serve as a potential focus for convection late this afternoon along the northern periphery of a dominant high pressure ridge centered near El Paso. Additional activity, more widely scattered in nature, is expected within the remnant moisture plume across western AR where modest MLCAPE (~1000 J/kg) and steeper lapse rates will reside on the southern periphery of a mid-level trough. Pattern remains similar through Sunday with weak troughing remaining across the local region coincident with a plume of deeper moisture.
WV imagery shows upper high south of the NM Bootheel over northern Mexico with plenty of sub-tropical moisture under the high.
651 PM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025 (This afternoon through Monday night) Weak upper ridging has retreated westward and a second upper ridge has built across the western Atlantic. This has left an overall weakness/weak troughing in the upper levels across the local area and will lead to a typical summertime convective pattern with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms each afternoon. Temperatures will continue to be near to slightly above normal with overnight lows in the mid to upper 70s and daytime highs in the low to mid 90s.
High pressure continues to build over the southwest through midweek.
1026 PM EDT Sun Jul 6 2025 A surface through lower level Atlantic ridge reaches westward across the Keys this evening. Weak ridging is in place through the mid and upper levels. This environment supported a line of Cuban showers and thunderstorms that recently drove through the Lower Keys and now finally weakening as it moves into the adjacent Gulf waters. Away from convection, overnight lows will be in the lower 80s with dew points in the mid 70s. The western flank of an Atlantic ridge across the Florida Straits and the Keys will lift slightly northward into South Florida overnight.
235 PM PDT Sun Jul 6 2025 * Temperatures will continue to warm through the first half of the week as high pressure builds into the region. Ridging will continue to push into the area from the southeast, maintaining our warming trend through mid-week.
Some decrease in high temperatures is possible later in the week as weak upper troughing moves in from the west and rain chances increase ever so slightly. Temperatures seasonable overnight, in the low 70s. This is in response to the upper ridge building over the eastern CONUS while the Bermuda high remains anchored offshore. Ensembles suggest weakening of the upper trough and continuation of southwest flow aloft across the region. At the surface, the region may see the return of lee-side troughing east of the Appalachians, leading to slightly higher rainfall chances each afternoon and evening. Height decreases will allow afternoon temperatures to decrease slightly into the low to mid 90s, which should also help heat indices retreat from widespread triple digits.
Warmer than normal temperatures and dry weather is expected today. /22/ Today through tonight: Upper and surface ridging will continue to prevail across the area today and this will continue through tonight. The upper ridge will strengthen over the area today and this will result in temperatures being a couple of degrees hotter, ranging from the low to mid 90s.
114 PM EDT Thu Sep 11 2025 High pressure remains in place over the next several days, bringing mostly sunny skies and mild temperatures.
Mid afternoon surface map shows 1027-1029 mb high pressure over James Bay Canada and ridging southward into the Great Lakes region, and influencing central/ne IL with weak east to NE flow. Warm temps were in the low to mid 80s over central/se IL with Olney at 88F and Mt Carmel airport in southern Lawrence county at 89F. Aloft an omega block pattern was occurring over US, with a strong mid/upper level ridge was over the central plains with upper level trof over the Atlantic States and a stronger upper level trof/low over the Pacific States (a 572 decameter 500 mb low was near the OR/CA/NV border). Strong upper level ridge to also build more over IL as 500 mb heights rise above 588 decameters.
954 AM MDT Thu Sep 11 2025 As an upper low moves overhead, wrap around moisture will bring numerous showers and thunderstorms to central ID, NE OR, and S-central OR. Slow moving storms near the center of the low may allow rainfall to accumulate in the same spot for a prolonged period of time. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop Friday afternoon, mainly over the higher terrain, resulting in localized MVFR/IFR conditions and mountain obscuration.
A mid level high pressure system currently centered across the TX Panhandle, will slowly move east across N TX through the weekend. As it moves east on Friday, a short wave is forecast to track southwest around southeastern periphery of the high. The higher PoPs (30-50%) will be mainly across the southern Coastal Bend to southern Webb County where the deeper moisture is progged to be located. The weekend is expected to be drier with the high pressure becoming more dominant, but a low (5-20%) chance of rain continues across the southern CWA with limited moisture along the sea breeze each day.
An upper level trough is currently passing southeast over the area, and with diurnal heating and the minimal increase in moisture which has occurred over our southwest, it has been enough to bring an agitated cu field with some sprinkles and perhaps extremely isolated showers with measurable precip. Will look for the Cu, sprinkles, and showers to dry up this evening as heating is lost and the trough departs. The trough's effects will remain to our north through the short term period, and geopotential heights aloft will manage to build slightly.
High pressure remains. Diurnal cu popped over the ridges and are currently a little congested in the srn mtns. Temps will be about 10F cooler tonight over the SE without the clouds they had last night.
1259 PM CDT Thu Sep 11 2025 - Rainfall chances will increase Friday night into the weekend as an upper level trough approaches the area from the west.
1111 AM EDT Thu Sep 11 2025 Low pressure moves away today followed by high pressure which will bring sunshine and seasonably warm temperatures. Dry weather with near seasonable temperatures prevails for the rest of the week and into much of the weekend as high pressure remains over New England.
Temps will stay cooler going through the week, continuing the relief from the heat we saw last week. As the trough moves on from the area, rain coverage will decrease heading closer to the weekend.
119 PM EDT Thu Sep 11 2025 -High pressure will continue beautiful early fall weather today.
119 PM EDT Thu Sep 11 2025 A weak cold front will move through later today into tonight, bringing just some periods of clouds.
- Above normal, summer-like, temperatures this weekend with highs in the low 70s to low 80s.
126 PM EDT Thu Sep 11 2025 High pressure will maintain dry conditions through the end of the week with warm sunny days and cool nights with patchy frost across the north.
1214 PM CDT Thu Sep 11 2025 Warmer than normal temperatures and dry weather is expected today. /22/ Today through tonight: Upper and surface ridging will continue to prevail across the area today and this will continue through tonight. The upper ridge will strengthen over the area today and this will result in temperatures being a couple of degrees hotter, ranging from the low to mid 90s.
Dry conditions continue through the weekend as a moisture starved cold front drops through the forecast area. High pressure returns through midweek.
1238 PM EDT Thu Sep 11 2025 High pressure will dominate the weather pattern through the next seven days with dry conditions and near to above normal daytime temperatures. High pressure will continue to ridge southward east of the Appalachians. This is where the higher pwats and deeper moisture reside. Temperatures this afternoon should rise into the mid 80s for most areas, although eastern most portions of the forecast area may end up topping out in the lower 80s if clouds hold through the afternoon. Another night of slightly below temperatures for most areas, with lows in the lower to mid 60s except for a few upper 50s north/west.
An upper level trough continues to slide east across the region, but with very dry air in place at the low and mid levels, weather will remain quiet. High pressure at the surface will support mostly clear skies and light northerly winds through Friday. Afternoon high temperatures will be near normal, ranging from the mid 70s to mid 80s in the lowlands. Overnight, with clear skies and calm winds, we will see another night of effective radiational cooling, dropping into the mid 40s to 50s across the lower elevations. Dry weather continues into the weekend as an upper level ridge begins to build in from the west.
1231 PM CDT Thu Sep 11 2025 (Today through Friday) A deep-layer ridge is encompassing the Central CONUS with expansive surface ridging extending from Canada into the Eastern CONUS. We'll actually have a mid to upper-level trough axis move across the Ohio Valley late today which will graze Central Alabama. A reinforcing shot of dry northerly flow will surge southward into the area tomorrow behind the trough axis. Highs today and tomorrow will range from the lower 90s west to upper 80s east with low afternoon humidity, and fortunately, we'll continue to experience cool mornings with lows in the 60s.
- Above normal temperatures will persist for the foreseeable future with an upper-level ridge dominating our region. - Rain chances will remain nil through this same period given the strength of the ridge and the lack of any forcing. Dominant ridging at the sfc and aloft will maintain an upward trajectory of temperatures with afternoon highs generally ranging from the mid to upper 90s on Friday.
223 PM EDT Thu Sep 11 2025 A cold front moves offshore this evening. High pressure builds in for Friday and Friday night.
153 PM EDT Thu Sep 11 2025 Dry high pressure will persist over the region through this weekend. As of 130 PM EDT Thursday: The dry and quiet weather continues as an upper trough remains over the eastern CONUS and high pressure still churns across the NE. Slight height rises as the trough axis shifts eastward, resulting in a small uptick in surface temperatures today.
An upper level ridge remains centered over west Texas today, and will continue to be the dominant feature for our weather through the next 24 hours.
A ridge of high pressure builds over Texas today and tomorrow keeping warm temperatures in the forecast with mainly rain-free conditions.
High pressure well to our northeast will continue pushing off to the southeast into New England through Friday. Upper ridging nudges in from the east Friday, opening up some even warmer temperatures for us. We'll see highs a few degrees warmer than today.
131 PM EDT Thu Sep 11 2025 A cold front will cross the region today. High pressure will then build across the region tonight into Friday night.
1251 PM EDT Thu Sep 11 2025 High pressure will persist through the rest of the week.
200 PM EDT Thu Sep 11 2025 High pressure remains in place over the next several days, bringing mostly sunny skies and mild temperatures.
/NEW/ /Through Friday/ Mostly sunny skies will prevail through the end of the work week as the axis of mid/upper ridging gradually shifts east over the state of Texas. Expect dry conditions and afternoon highs in the low to mid 90s through Friday. Slightly warmer overnight lows in the upper 60s to mid 70s will return tonight as southerly flow ticks dewpoints up a few degrees.
Over the next couple of days the troughing over the eastern United States will amplify, reaching down into the Yucatan by this weekend.
A large omega blocking pattern with troughing over the US east coast, ridging just to our west, and another trough over the intermountain west is apparent on satellite this afternoon. Temperatures are about on track pushing into the low 90s, and the next several days looks similar with the blocking pattern keeping subsidence/fairly high 500mb heights in place. It will likely take a fairly robust trough moving in from the northwest or southwest to break up this pattern.
1253 PM PDT Thu Sep 11 2025 * Low pressure brings breezy afternoon winds, below average temperatures, and isolated precipitation through tomorrow.
/Issued 504 AM MDT Thu Sep 11 2025/ - Meteorological Overview: Today an upper-level trough is over North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana. Due to the upper-level trough moving slightly eastward there will be greater coverage in showers and thunderstorms today than yesterday. On Friday the upper-level trough remains over North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana and moves slightly east.
1148 AM MDT Thu Sep 11 2025 -Seasonally very warm through Friday -Isolated showers and thunderstorms through Friday with a good chance of widespread rain Friday night into the weekend 09Z upper level analysis has the forecast area under southwest flow, with ridge to the east and large closed low to the west. At the surface, low pressure resides across eastern Montana, with warm frontal boundary across ND, and cool frontal boundary extending southwest into Wyoming. Ahead of the low, broad southeast boundary layer flow is in place, with very mild temperatures across the forecast area at 3 AM - in the 60s to lower 70s.
(Rest of Today and Tonight) Through the day today, a vort max will translate SE across the TN Valley along the base of a mid level trough that is slowly pushing east across the mid atlantic. Clear skies will develop overnight with lows dropping into the low 60s.
(Through Friday) A high pressure blocking pattern persists, causing warm and dry conditions to continue into the near term. High temperatures reach into the lower 90s and lows fall into the mid 60s.
1220 PM CDT Thu Sep 11 2025 (Rest of Today and Tonight) Through the day today, a vort max will translate SE across the TN Valley along the base of a mid level trough that is slowly pushing east across the mid atlantic. Clear skies will develop overnight with lows dropping into the low 60s.
Still have the low chance (15-20%) of thunderstorms this afternoon with the vort max pushing its way through, however those will wean with sunset. Overnight lows will reach the lower 60s which is seasonable for this time of year.
Morning lows on Friday will largely range through the 60s, a bit warmer than the last couple of mornings. The expansive midlevel ridge extending from Texas into the Plains will gradually expand eastward Friday while a trough axis extends from the Mid-Atlantic into the Carolinas and southwestward. Meanwhile, at the surface, high pressure will extend from Quebec southward across the eastern US, keeping us high and dry.
A low pressure system remaining over the California/Nevada border is supporting continuing cool temperatures today. Activity may wrap around the low through this afternoon and evening, bringing rain shower and thunderstorm chances to areas east of the Cascades. Broad chances for areas east of the Cascades are 25-35% through this afternoon and evening, with the highest chances in northeast Lake County to southeast Klamath County.
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: This approaching low pressure system, now moving through Idaho is setting up the regional atmosphere dynamics that support the development of scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms.
Windy conditions are expected through Friday, with lighter winds and cooler temperatures arriving over the weekend.
Otherwise, most locations will remain dry and mostly clear as temperatures fall into the low to mid 60s. Dry and hot conditions will continue into the day on Friday as the 500mb ridge over Texas and Oklahoma continues to build eastward.
709 PM EDT Thu Sep 11 2025 (Through Friday) A high pressure blocking pattern persists, causing warm and dry conditions to continue into the near term. High temperatures reach into the lower 90s and lows fall into the mid 60s.
615 PM EDT Thu Sep 11 2025 Canadian high pressure extends southward into our area through Friday. The high then shifts eastward and gradually weakens over the weekend.
/Issued 1231 PM CDT Thu Sep 11 2025/ /Through Friday/ Mostly sunny skies will prevail through the end of the work week as the axis of mid/upper ridging gradually shifts east over the state of Texas. Expect dry conditions and afternoon highs in the low to mid 90s through Friday. Slightly warmer overnight lows in the upper 60s to mid 70s will return tonight as southerly flow ticks dewpoints up a few degrees.
The upper trough over the region will continue sliding eastward tonight with another round of widespread clouds and areas of fog developing early Friday.
752 PM EDT Thu Sep 11 2025 Canadian high pressure extends southward into our area through Friday. The high then shifts eastward and gradually weakens over the weekend.
A large, 1028 mb center of high pressure located between James Bay Canada and Georgian Bay will continue to circulate dry and pleasant air into the region as it drifts slowly to the southeast over the next several days. Temps will be about 10F cooler tonight over the SE without the fairly thick low cloud blanket they had last night.
Today and tomorrow: The Inland Northwest remains in a moist and unstable airmass thanks to an upper level low pressure centered over northeast Oregon.
/16/ - Above normal temperatures will persist for the foreseeable future with an upper-level ridge dominating our region. - Rain chances will remain nil through this same period given the strength of the ridge and the lack of any forcing. Dominant ridging at the sfc and aloft will maintain an upward trajectory of temperatures with afternoon highs generally ranging from the mid to upper 90s on Friday.
912 PM EDT Thu Sep 11 2025 High pressure will dominate the weather pattern through the next seven days with dry conditions and near to above normal daytime temperatures. High pressure in Quebec continues to slowly move eastward. Generally still have a dry air mass in place but moisture has ticked up a bit compared to 24 hours ago with PWATs above an inch with onshore flow in the low levels. This will lead to a bit milder lows, generally in the low 60s and possibility of some low clouds in the eastern area but benign weather expected to continue.
449 PM CDT Thu Sep 11 2025 - Above normal temperatures will persist for the foreseeable future with an upper-level ridge dominating our region. - Rain chances will remain nil through this same period given the strength of the ridge and the lack of any forcing. Dominant ridging at the sfc and aloft will maintain an upward trajectory of temperatures with afternoon highs generally ranging from the mid to upper 90s on Friday.
249 PM PDT Thu Sep 11 2025 * Low pressure brings breezy afternoon winds, below average temperatures, and isolated precipitation through tomorrow.
An upper troughing setup was in place along the west and east coast, while upper ridging was in place over the central and southern Great Plains. Low temperatures otherwise should cool into the low/mid 60s with light winds.
722 PM EDT Thu Sep 11 2025 A cold front moves offshore this evening. High pressure builds in for Friday and Friday night.
741 PM EDT Thu Sep 11 2025 High pressure remains in place over the next several days, bringing mostly sunny skies and mild temperatures.
702 PM EDT Thu Sep 11 2025 High pressure will persist through the rest of the week.
745 PM EDT Thu Sep 11 2025 Dry high pressure will persist over the region through this weekend. the dry and quiet weather continues as an upper trough remains over the eastern CONUS and high pressure still churns across the NE.
1020 PM EDT Thu Sep 11 2025 High pressure will maintain dry conditions through the end of the week with warm sunny days and cool nights with patchy frost across the north.
Dry conditions continue through the weekend as a moisture-starved cold front drops through the forecast area. High pressure returns through midweek. After an isolated shower near I-95 from Alexandria to Woodbridge earlier, cloud cover decreases tonight with mostly clear skies expected.
127 AM EDT Fri Sep 12 2025 Canadian high pressure extends southward into our area through Friday. The high then shifts eastward and gradually weakens over the weekend.
KEY MESSAGES: - Potential for early morning river valley fog - Warm and dry conditions --------------------------------------------------------------- Confidence remains high that quiet and dry conditions will continue today under high pressure.
235 AM EDT Fri Sep 12 2025 High pressure remains in place over the next several days, bringing mostly sunny skies and mild temperatures.