Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
With the increased cloud cover and rain, temperatures will be warmer tonight, in the 40s, and cooler Sunday, in the 50s.
1027 AM EST Sat Feb 3 2024 Dry high pressure will push into the area from the north today.
At the surface, low pressure was basically near or just south of the low aloft near Black Mesa in the OK Panhandle, so it's a near vertically stacked cyclone. An occluded front arcs southeast from the low down to near the DFW Metroplex, where it continues southeast off the LA Gulf Coast. As the surface/upper low shifts southeast to the ArkLaTex on Sunday, some wrap-around rain will spread southwest across the region. Some spotty showers are also possible over far SE OK closer to the upper low center during the afternoon.
RAOBs across the Gulf Coast sampled falling heights at all levels as a negatively tilted longwave trough extending across the West to Southern Plains continues to push eastward. This trough will play a significant role in the Keys sensible weather over the next few days, but today will be the "calm before the storm. " Weak high pressure across Florida will keep winds light from the north to northeast before veering to the east this afternoon.
1210 PM EST Sat Feb 3 2024 High pressure will provide 4-5 days of abundant sunshine and seasonably mild weather.
Temperatures will be above normal through early in the week before trending even warmer by midweek and beyond. Amplified mid level flow with a narrow/sharp ridge over the MS Valley working into the Ohio Valley overnight. Low temperatures to range from the mid/upper 20s north to the lower 30s south. Blocky pattern with narrow mid level ridge over the area as low pressure settles from the Southern Plains across the Gulf States. High temperatures generally to range in the lower to middle 50s.
248 PM CST Sat Feb 3 2024 Through Sunday: Stratiform light to moderate rainfall continues to spread across the region this afternoon in association with an advancing trough axis. Confidence in a flash flood threat is fairly low, and 12z HREF guidance did little to change this, with LPMM QPF keeping the highest totals closer to the coast. While confidence in the highest wind speeds being realized is low given the timing, occasional gusts to around 40-45 mph still appear quite plausible.
Remainder of current forecast looks good trending warmer and windier Sunday as today's cold upper low centered over Oregon and offshore, moves southwestward off California tonight and an upper ridge builds northward through the Great Basin on Sunday.
Drier boundary layer air will come around the high and across Lake MI into srn WI tnt into Sunday. Gehring Issued 241 AM CST Sat Feb 3 2024 Today through Sunday: A quiet weekend is ahead as an expansive Omega block over the CONUS transitions to a rex block, with upper level ridging remaining centered over the western Great Lakes. More widespread sun is expected for Sunday, with highs a few degrees warmer in the low to mid 40s.
152 PM EST Sat Feb 3 2024 High pressure will provide 4-5 days of abundant sunshine and seasonably mild weather. Ridging at the sfc over the Upper GLAKS and ONT, and an Omega Block aloft with it's axis just to our W will keep it dry and largely cloudless for the near future. The Omega Block will get pinched into a Rex Block as a deep, cut-off low moves into the Lower MS Valley. With the ridge still to our west, we'll keep on with the milder-than-normal temps and plentiful sunshine. The higher elevations of the Endless Mountains should (70% chc) not get to 40F.
Seasonable temperatures will trend warmer throughout the week.
with a cutoff low/deep trough moving across the southeast U.
Near the center of the low across the NW Panhandles, some light rain showers are expected through the early evening hours. Some scattered leftover rain showers are possible for the far eastern Panhandles, areas closer to the main lift associated with the upper level low, but most areas will stay dry.
1238 PM EST Sat Feb 3 2024 High pressure will ridge in from the north through Sun with temperatures at or just below normal. High pressure returns for the mid to late week period along with milder temps. 5H trof axis to swing off the NC and SC Coasts this morning, taking the remaining moisture with it. CAA and dry air infiltrate the area as high pressure ridges in from the Great Lakes. An elongated and somewhat stalled upper ridge to stretch from the Carolinas to the Great Lakes by the end of this period. This the result of a meandering and expansive upper low over the NW Atlantic. By the end of this period, a mid-level low will begin to undercut the upper ridge to the south as a result of the blocking situation downstream.
Vertically stacked low pressure center continues to slowly drift southeastward through the Texas Panhandle, while an occluded frontal boundary is draped Central and Eastern Oklahoma, serving as the focal point for moderate to heavy showers with a few rumbles of thunder. At the surface, low pressure was basically near or just south of the low aloft near Black Mesa in the OK Panhandle, so it's a near vertically stacked cyclone. An occluded front arcs southeast from the low down to near the DFW Metroplex, where it continues southeast off the LA Gulf Coast. As the surface/upper low shifts southeast to the ArkLaTex on Sunday, some wrap-around rain will spread southwest across the region. Some spotty showers are also possible over far SE OK closer to the upper low center during the afternoon.
As the entire system shifts east on Sunday, a cold front will surge through the region.
514 PM CST Sat Feb 3 2024 (Tonight through Sunday night) West to northwest flow today will strengthen tonight as a reinforcing surge of high pressure pushes into the area. Strong winds will stream dry air into the area leading to Relative Humidity values in the teens over the Rio Grande Valley to the low 30s over the western Coastal Plains. Temperatures behind last night's cold front will not be drastically different, with high temperatures in the 70s across the area for Sunday.
620 PM EST Sat Feb 3 2024 High pressure will continue to build into the region through the rest of the weekend.
Temperatures will be above normal through early in the week before trending even warmer by midweek and beyond. High pressure at the surface and aloft will reside across the region overnight. Winds will vary from the east/northeast, being calm in low valleys and higher at ridge tops/open flat areas. Low temperatures will range from the mid/upper 20s north to the lower 30s south. Blocky pattern with narrow mid level ridge over the area as low pressure settles from the Southern Plains across the Gulf States. High temperatures generally to range in the lower to middle 50s.
516 PM CST Sat Feb 3 2024 (This evening through Sunday) Expansive upper level low remains centered over the southern plains states early this afternoon, with this feature progged to drift slowly southeastward through the next 24 hours keeping West Texas beneath strong northwest flow aloft. Cloud cover has also increased this afternoon as an axis of enhanced midlevel moisture wraps around the mid/upper low, with virga or perhaps some brief sprinkles possible across the far southern TX Panhandle through this evening as continued large surface T/Td spreads prevent any meaningful low level moistening.
554 PM CST Sat Feb 3 2024 Through Sunday: Stratiform light to moderate rainfall continues to spread across the region this afternoon in association with an advancing trough axis. Confidence in a flash flood threat is fairly low, and 12z HREF guidance did little to change this, with LPMM QPF keeping the highest totals closer to the coast. While confidence in the highest wind speeds being realized is low given the timing, occasional gusts to around 40-45 mph still appear quite plausible.
Discussion: Upper low, currently over the Texas panhandle, will cutoff this afternoon and evening and begin to shift east-southeast towards the Arklamiss area through the period, eventually arriving along the central Gulf coastline (or very close to it) by shortly after the end of the short term. Given how far south most all guidance takes this upper low, very little of our forecast area stands much of a chance of rain out of this system. Depending on which model you believe, anywhere from 20kt to 40kt of ESE H85 flow will develop over the southern two thirds of the forecast are tomorrow as the upper low begins to slide by to our south.
718 PM EST Sat Feb 3 2024 High pressure will provide 4-5 days of abundant sunshine and seasonably mild weather. High pressure at the sfc over the Upper GLAKS and ONT, and an Omega Block aloft with it's axis just to our W will keep it dry and largely cloudless for the near future. The Omega Block will get pinched into a Rex Block as a deep, cut-off low moves into the Lower MS Valley. With the ridge still to our west, we'll keep on with the milder- than-normal temps and plentiful sunshine. The higher elevations of the Endless Mountains should (70% chc) not get to 40F.
641 PM EST Sat Feb 3 2024 High pressure will provide 4-5 days of abundant sunshine and seasonably mild weather. Ridging at the sfc over the Upper GLAKS and ONT, and an Omega Block aloft with it's axis just to our W will keep it dry and largely cloudless for the near future. The Omega Block will get pinched into a Rex Block as a deep, cut-off low moves into the Lower MS Valley. With the ridge still to our west, we'll keep on with the milder-than-normal temps and plentiful sunshine. The higher elevations of the Endless Mountains should (70% chc) not get to 40F.
In the lowlands, snow levels will fall to 2000-2500 feet by tomorrow so some snowflakes may mix in with rain showers in the INW.
759 PM EST Sat Feb 3 2024 High pressure builds in from southeastern Canada through the weekend and remains in control through midweek.
Based on the satellite trends over the last few hours, do think that at least some cloud cover will reach the forecast area which may lead to slightly warmer temperatures, but across that area hourly temperatures are only a few degrees off the expected lows. With that in mind, not planning to make any changes to the lows but will fine tune hourly temperatures to be more steady state. Quiet weather will continue through the short term as Rex blocking sets up over the central U. Winds will remain easterly to northeasterly through the weekend as high pressure sits to the north, with sustained winds expected to stay near 10 mph. As the trough dives south, the high will retrograde into the stronger anticyclonic vorticity, placing the Midwest in a textbook Rex-Block pattern.
617 PM EST Sat Feb 3 2024 High pressure will continue to build into the region through the rest of the weekend.
- Patchy fog possible across the lower elevations tonight into tomorrow - Light rain showers will continue across the far northeast plains through tomorrow, with quieter weather for the rest of the forecast area. This band still appears to be enhanced somewhat by some additional convergence and/or a weak barrier jet, with snowfall rates of 1-2"/hr in the lower foothills and far western suburbs. Tomorrow should be much quieter across most of the forecast area as the upper low slides into the ArkLaTex region by tomorrow afternoon.
943 PM EST Sat Feb 3 2024 High pressure builds in from southeastern Canada through the weekend and remains in control through midweek.
These easterly winds will push in a slightly colder airmass allowing temperatures to drop into the low to mid 20s by Sunday morning. The snow levels do not appear to drop low enough during the bulk of the precipitation to warrant any highlights for the Missoula/Bitterroot valleys along with the lower portions of Idaho and Clearwater counties tonight into Sunday. A broad trough of low pressure will be over the western United States through the work week as subtle disturbances move through causing periods of light snow in the mountains with a wintry mix of rain/snow in the valleys.
945 PM EST Sat Feb 3 2024 High pressure will provide cold and dry weather for tonight into Sunday, with skies trending towards mostly clear for most locations. Quiet and tranquil weather tonight with high pressure building in from the Great Lakes Region and southeast Canada.
719 PM EST Sat Feb 3 2024 High pressure builds in from southeastern Canada through the weekend and remains in control through midweek.
Mostly dry weather is expected to prevail through Sunday afternoon with the region under weak high pressure followed by increasing offshore flow Sunday.
With the increased cloud cover, temperatures will be warmer tonight, in the 40s, and cooler Sunday, in the 50s.
605 PM EST Sat Feb 3 2024 - Dry weather in a mix of sun and clouds continues through Sunday as relatively mild high pressure holds over the region.
While soundings do show this stratus deck hanging on into the overnight hours, we should see the stratus gradually thin as a drier air mass associated with high pressure over lower Michigan continues to move into the area.
(Monday Night through next Sunday) Majority of this week will remain dry as an upper-level ridge begins to build across the region.
334 AM EST Sun Feb 4 2024 High pressure will remain in control of the weather pattern through the middle of the week. An upper level ridge will build over the East during the second half of the week bringing a warming trend.
1212 AM EST Sun Feb 4 2024 - Dry weather in a mix of sun and clouds continues through Sunday as relatively mild high pressure holds over the region.
1029 PM CST Sat Feb 3 2024 (Tonight through Sunday night) West to northwest flow today will strengthen tonight as a reinforcing surge of high pressure pushes into the area. Strong winds will stream dry air into the area leading to Relative Humidity values in the teens over the Rio Grande Valley to the low 30s over the western Coastal Plains. Temperatures behind last night's cold front will not be drastically different, with high temperatures in the 70s across the area for Sunday.
1245 AM EST Sun Feb 4 2024 High pressure will continue to build into the region through the rest of the weekend.
Upper low off the SW Oregon coast will move south to off the northern California coast then begin to elongate into a full latitude trough Sunday night through Monday night.
The northerly winds will become breezy/gusty by late morning and will advect slightly cooler air into the area. Anticipate wind gusts between 20-30 mph through the day, with afternoon highs generally reaching the lower-middle 50s under mostly cloudy to overcast skies.
250 AM EST Sun Feb 4 2024 Cool high pressure will extend into the region through the first part of the work week.
Discussion: In the upper levels, a cut-off low will be in the lower MS Valley today drifting slowly southeast overnight, near the FL Panhandle by Monday morning. A ridge will be over the Midwest and Great Lakes. Breezy conditions will be possible today and tonight mainly in the higher elevations of the East Tennessee mountains and the higher elevations of the Cumberland Plateau.
Mostly dry weather is expected to prevail through Sunday afternoon with the region under weak high pressure followed by increasing offshore flow Sunday. Low pressure off the California coast Sunday will drift northward Sunday night and Monday, bringing valley light rain and mountain snow back to the forecast area. Cooler and unsettled weather will then persist through the end of the week as a series of fast-moving systems from the Gulf of Alaska sweep across the Pac NW. Expect the low to continue to drop south while high pressure builds over NW Oregon tonight. These conditions should also allow many lowland valley locations to cool into the lower 30s overnight.
High pressure will bring dry and warmer weather on Sunday and Monday.
1250 AM EST Sun Feb 4 2024 High pressure will provide 4-5 days of abundant sunshine and seasonably mild weather. High pressure at the sfc over the Upper GLAKS and ONT, and an Omega Block aloft with it's axis just to our W will keep it dry and largely cloudless for the near future. The Omega Block will get pinched into a Rex Block as a deep, cut-off low moves into the Lower MS Valley. With the ridge still to our west, we'll keep on with the milder- than-normal temps and plentiful sunshine. The higher elevations of the Endless Mountains should (70% chc) not get to 40F.
1029 PM CST Sat Feb 3 2024 (This evening through Sunday) Expansive upper level low remains centered over the southern plains states early this afternoon, with this feature progged to drift slowly southeastward through the next 24 hours keeping West Texas beneath strong northwest flow aloft. Cloud cover has also increased this afternoon as an axis of enhanced midlevel moisture wraps around the mid/upper low, with virga or perhaps some brief sprinkles possible across the far southern TX Panhandle through this evening as continued large surface T/Td spreads prevent any meaningful low level moistening.
1050 PM EST Sat Feb 3 2024 High pressure will provide 4-5 days of abundant sunshine and seasonably mild weather. High pressure at the sfc over the Upper GLAKS and ONT, and an Omega Block aloft with it's axis just to our W will keep it dry and largely cloudless for the near future. The Omega Block will get pinched into a Rex Block as a deep, cut-off low moves into the Lower MS Valley. With the ridge still to our west, we'll keep on with the milder- than-normal temps and plentiful sunshine. The higher elevations of the Endless Mountains should (70% chc) not get to 40F.
1220 AM EST Sun Feb 4 2024 High pressure builds in from southeastern Canada through the weekend and remains in control through midweek.
Meanwhile, the filling/weakening H5 closed low across the southern plains will slide into the region through Sunday/Monday.
(Today and tonight) An elongated upper low currently centered over the TX Panhandle is slowly departing southeastward. Otherwise, mostly clear skies are expected, with the exception of stubborn cloud cover over the southeastern TX Panhandle and northern Rolling Plains closer to the low which will generally continue throughout the day.
The exception may be in the far north, where the morning stratus would inhibit heating enough for highs in the lower 40s. Some cooler air will advect into the area as winds become northeast throughout more of the atmosphere. Along with the cooler air will come more low level moisture. Anomalous upper ridging will continue to promote above normal temperatures with highs generally in the mid 40s to near 50F.
1240 AM EST Sun Feb 4 2024 Cool high pressure will extend into the region through the first part of the work week.
(Today through Monday Night) The large upper-level low that is associated with the cold front that moved through yesterday continues to spin across Lower Mississippi River Valley. Afternoon high temperatures will be in the low to mid 60s for most of the area today and tomorrow.
320 AM EST Sun Feb 4 2024 High pressure will continue to build into the region through the rest of the weekend.
(Today) Light rain continues to gradually overspread the central TN Valley from the SW this early Sun morning, as an upper low/trough axis continues to dive SE into the western/central Gulf Coast.
Light rain is continuing across the area early this morning with water vapor imagery showing low pressure spinning over western Arkansas and a stream of moisture advecting northwestward.
512 AM CST Sun Feb 4 2024 - Increasing confidence (>50% probability) that areas of dense fog or freezing fog develop late tonight and again Monday night north of I-70, perhaps leading to a few slick spots.
502 AM CST Sun Feb 4 2024 (Today) Light rain continues to gradually overspread the central TN Valley from the SW this early Sun morning, as an upper low/trough axis continues to dive SE into the western/central Gulf Coast.
Chances for freezing drizzle remain low, 20%, and are dependent upon surface temperatures.
Satellite imagery around 4AM showed clear skies across the NE half of the CWA, with pockets of freezing fog across portions of Elko county. Low pressure just off the CA coast has NV under a southwesterly flow aloft.
Temperatures continue to be above normal for the majority of the week under the upper level ridge.
433 AM EST Sun Feb 4 2024 High pressure centered over the Upper Great Lakes will be the primary influence on our weather through much of the upcoming work week featuring days with abundant sunshine, light wind and mild temperatures for early February, with mainly clear and chilly nights. A broad area of high pressure at the surface and aloft extended across the Upper Great Lakes. The Rex Block will transition into a simple high amplitude ridge from the Gomex to Central Ontario, Canada during the mid and late week period as the aforementioned southern stream feature moves well east of the Georgia/Florida. 5C in the east yields quite uniform afternoon max values mainly in the mid to upper 40s, though the higher terrain of Tioga, Sullivan and Northern Schuylkill Counties should see temps capped in the upper 30s.
317 AM CST Sun Feb 4 2024 - Increasing confidence (>50% probability) that areas of dense fog or freezing fog develop late tonight and again Monday night north of I-70, perhaps leading to a few slick spots.
932 AM EST Sun Feb 4 2024 High pressure and upper level ridging dominate the weather pattern through midweek with dry conditions expected.
653 AM EST Sun Feb 4 2024 High pressure centered over the Upper Great Lakes will be the primary influence on our weather through much of the upcoming work week featuring days with abundant sunshine, light wind and mild temperatures for early February, with mainly clear and chilly nights. A broad area of high pressure at the surface and aloft extended across the Upper Great Lakes. The Rex Block will transition into a simple high amplitude ridge from the Gomex to Central Ontario, Canada during the mid and late week period as the aforementioned southern stream feature moves well east of the Georgia/Florida. 5C in the east yields quite uniform afternoon max values mainly in the mid to upper 40s, though the higher terrain of Tioga, Sullivan and Northern Schuylkill Counties should see temps capped in the upper 30s.
The blocking pattern at the mid-levels has come to an end as the western bookend closed low continues to surge southward and then eastward across the northern Gulf through Monday. Highs today will be on the cooler side, topping out in just the mid- 40s to 50s.
(Now through Monday) Latest surface analysis places the primary low pressure area about 100 miles south of Pensacola Florida. This low will track take on a fast northeasterly track as it pivots around a secondary low pressure system that will exit east Texas and move across the lower Mississippi River region. The 850mb low pressure system over south Alabama tonight will swing southeastward over the eastern Gulf and Florida Peninsula throughout the day Monday. There will also be a small chance of lingering light rain across the area on the backside of the low early in the day on Monday, but should be ending late in the day with skies finally beginning to clear toward sunset Monday. A cold front moves through the area tonight, bringing lows back down into the low to mid 40s.
High pressure will bring dry and warmer weather today and Monday.
450 AM CST Sun Feb 4 2024 (Today and tonight) As upper low finally begins to shift south and east today and tonight (progressing from southwest Oklahoma to the north central Gulf of Mexico by Monday morning) numerous light showers will spread southward from northern, into central and southern Oklahoma today through this evening. The cloud cover and light rain should keep high temperatures in the upper 40s (northern Oklahoma) and the lower-middle 50s most other locations. Northerly winds will increase through the day and persist through the evening, making it feel much cooler. With some decrease in cloud cover possible, temperatures are forecast to fall into the lower to middle 30s across northern Oklahoma and closer to 40 elsewhere.
Southwest flow sets up the first part of this week as a deep trough sits along the West Coast. Much of the energy in this trough is focused across California and the Desert Southwest with weak disturbances impacting our region.