Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A weak low pressure will move across southern Arizona tonight with rain and high elevation snow showers in east- central parts of the state. Otherwise, warmer and drier conditions are expected through the end of the week. An area of low pressure is moving eastward across southern Arizona this evening. This west to east flow aloft will lead to warmer and drier conditions across much of northern Arizona through the end of the week.
1058 PM CST Wed Feb 28 2024 (This evening through Thursday) Much chillier temperatures are in place compared to recent days, with many areas anywhere from 25-35 degrees cooler than they were this time yesterday. It will take time for the lower levels to saturate, but evaporational cooling will likely bring temperatures into the range for snow or a rain/snow mix across western Oklahoma and portions of western north Texas Thursday morning. Highs on Thursday will be coolest west, likely in the low 40s, with upper 40s to near 50 to the north, east, and south.
344 AM EST Thu Feb 29 2024 High pressure building over the Ohio River valley will push to the east today, moving offshore the Mid-Atlantic tonight. Meanwhile, low pressure will develop over the western Gulf of Mexico and eventually move northeast, bringing unsettled weather for the weekend. A much drier airmass has moved in behind yesterday's cold front, with many locations showing almost a 40 degree drop in dewpoint over just a few hours. Highs will be below normal, with values only reaching the low to mid 50s. Lows will range from the low 30s to the low 40s. A wave of low pressure will develop well southwest of North Carolina along the tail end of yesterday's cold front.
Short Term Update - The ridge to our north will slip out to the east as a frontal trough shoves out into the Atlantic and a new high cell moves into the southeast. A ridge across Florida will retreat into the Atlantic through the overnight period.
1244 AM EST Thu Feb 29 2024 High pressure will build east into the Ohio Valley tonight and Thursday, bringing dry weather but much colder temperatures. The high will then move east of the area Thursday night.
(00Z TAFS) MVFR ceilings associated with a cold front currently pushing offshore will quickly rise to VFR tonight. (Now through Thursday) A broken band of light to briefly moderate showers along a cold front is currently approaching the I-65 corridor. Normally with the passage of a cold front we expect clearing skies.
1033 PM CST Wed Feb 28 2024 - Expect temperatures to fall quickly below freezing tonight to bottom out in the upper teens to low and mid 20s as high pressure builds across the area.
1125 PM CST Wed Feb 28 2024 Cooler and drier air will continue to build into the Lower Mississippi Valley tonight into Thursday.
200 AM EST Thu Feb 29 2024 High pressure building over the Ohio River valley will push to the east today, moving offshore the Mid-Atlantic tonight. Meanwhile, low pressure will develop over the western Gulf of Mexico and eventually move northeast, bringing unsettled weather for the weekend. A much drier airmass has moved in behind yesterday's cold front, with many locations showing almost a 40 degree drop in dewpoint over just a few hours. Highs will be below normal, with values only reaching the low to mid 50s. Lows will range from the low 30s to the low 40s. A wave of low pressure will develop well southwest of North Carolina along the tail end of yesterday's cold front.
239 AM CST Thu Feb 29 2024 - Warmer today with a 30% chance for light snow along the Canadian Border and Arrowhead.
High pressure and dry weather arrive on Thursday with lighter wind.
1124 PM CST Wed Feb 28 2024 - Cooler temperatures will continue tonight, but a warming trend will quickly return for the rest of the week and into the weekend.
Lows early Thursday morning are still expected to drop into the low to mid 60s areawide, but recent model trends allowed for a slight increase in values in this update.
322 AM EST Thu Feb 29 2024 High pressure will pass across the area today and tonight.
Little to no snow accumulation is expected with temperatures near/above freezing very little to no impact is also expected due to the snow.
This is being caused by a broad upper level trough moving off the East Coast dragging a weak cold front and increasing moisture ahead of it. As a result, highs will struggle to above the low 70s along the Nature Coast this afternoon.
In the wake of a strong cold frontal passage across the region, cold temperatures and brisk winds are in store across the region today. The High Wind Warnings and Wind Advisories across northern New York have been cancelled, and the Wind Advisories across Vermont are set to expire at 7 AM. warm front is still lifting north across the area with High Pressure southeast of Cape Cod accounting for decent southwest gradient and not as cold as previous night with lows primarily in the 30s with some 20s in sheltered valleys of the Adirondacks as well as east of the Green Mountains.
- An upper level low is forecast to move into the region this weekend bringing in precipitation. The highest accumulations likely along the International Border. The gauge located near the railroad bridge continues to show a slow increase in river height, almost to minor stage. Currently under a short incoming ridge, a surface warm front is trying to make its way through the southwest part of the state. This is one reason the southwest will be much warmer, another is the ridge and warmer 850mb temps.
High pressure has built overhead. High pressure and dry conditions are expected today. The high pressure center currently across the Ohio Valley will push eastward with a wedge building in from the northeast later today into tonight. The low will also serve to reinforce the wedge.
544 AM CST Thu Feb 29 2024 - Much warmer today, with a continued warming trend through the weekend.
622 AM EST Thu Feb 29 2024 High pressure will pass across the area today and tonight. High pressure will then become reestablished over the weekend with a warming trend. High pressure will build into the area today. The high will pass off to the east tonight.
205 AM MST Thu Feb 29 2024 MORNING DISCUSSION: Synoptic Setup: Forecast begins with an approaching ridge crest over southern Alberta running south through the Rockies. Farther west a large pacific trough has developed over the Gulf of Alaska. Today through this evening: As the ridge to the west moves into and across the region a light southwest wind will also set up allowing warm air advection which will brings highs into the 50s today. Meanwhile, the Pacific trough will set up over the coast of the PCNW and begin moving inland.
Latest surface analysis shows the cold front well on its way to exiting the East Coast as cold, dry air continues to spill across the region.
High pressure will build into the Mid Atlantic States behind an exiting cold front. As surface and 850 mb ridging shift offshore tonight southerly return flow will lead to moisture increases, bringing PWATs back to around an inch. What is known is that the coldest values will be over the northwestern counties with warmer values closer to the coast, possibly aided by warm air advection.
634 AM EST Thu Feb 29 2024 (Today through Friday) Dry and pleasant weather continues today as South FL remains under the influence of a mid-level ridge that extends from the Yucatan Peninsula up across the eastern Gulf of Mexico and into the western Atlantic. At the surface, a stalled frontal boundary over north-central FL and high pressure over the Atlantic will lead to light easterly flow over the area. , flattening the ridge that has been in place. Despite the increasing moisture and flattening ridge, there will be just enough suppression to keep rain chances low (10%) with only some brief passing showers possible.
Quiet weather is on tap for today as high pressure builds overhead although temperatures will remain chilly in the wake of yesterday's cold front with highs barely reaching into the 50's for most.
The dry air will support wet bulb profiles supportive of a sleet / snow mix at most any location across the local area, however the higher terrain of far NW AR and maybe far SE OK stand the best chance of this mix prevailing for any length of time. Sfc temps will remain above freezing except within the highest elevations and no winter weather impacts are expected.
Going into tonight and Friday an upper level trough will eject eastward over the central Plains and spread northeast. Isentropic lift along the front and ahead of the trough will begin to move back northward closer to our CWFA. The cooler mid levels will also provide a source for some small hail potential in the more robust updrafts.
304 AM CST Thu Feb 29 2024 - Much warmer today, with a continued warming trend through the weekend.
This rainfall can be associated with a secondary trough that will glide through the central CONUS through the day today and into Friday. I did trend slightly cooler than what NBM was hinting at for high temperatures today. Cloud cover will follow in a similar suit, gradually clearing from west to east during the day on Friday as some weak ridging builds into the region. This ridging will also start a warming trend as we head into the weekend.
709 AM EST Thu Feb 29 2024 -Wind Advisory remains in effect tonight for gusts 45-55 mph -Lake effect and upslope snow showers tonight into early Thursday -Breezy and much colder for Leap Day -Mild pattern resumes Friday as the calender flips to March Temps will continue to drop from NW to SE this evening as colder air rushes in behind the departing cold front. Strong winds and drier air behind the front should allow roads to dry out before temps crash below freezing over most of the region.
455 AM CST Thu Feb 29 2024 (Today) Ongoing high cloud cover moving into the Tennessee Valley from the West and the aftermath of the cold front yesterday will allow high temperatures to remain in the low to mid 50s today.
Warmer and drier conditions are expected through the end of the week. Zonal flow sets in over Arizona today, keeping temperatures about the same or slightly warmer than yesterday.
The main precipitation area, will be more associated with the Coastal Trough offshore where the chances for measurable rain is 30-60%.
and in the low 40s across the south. There may be some sleet/snow mixing with the rain in the higher terrain of the Ozarks. Temps should remain above freezing. even with the well above freezing temps. as the lower atmosphere moistens. Warmer conditions will be seen for Fri afternoon as SRLY winds return.
Temperatures have dropped just below 70 degrees in these locations, while the rest of the island chain remains in the lower 70s. Surface analysis places a cold front over the northern Florida Peninsula, and expansive high pressure across the eastern U. The aforementioned high pressure across the Eastern U.
522 AM CST Thu Feb 29 2024 - Warmer today with a 30% chance for light snow along the Canadian Border and Arrowhead.
High pressure will develop at the surface to our east, turning our winds back to the southeast by this afternoon. Then, as we go into the overnight hours lighter winds and clear skies could allow for radiational cooling and lows to drop into the low to upper 30s.
345 AM PST Thu Feb 29 2024 A large low pressure system over the northeast Pacific will move slowly inland along the West Coast through the weekend.
413 AM EST Thu Feb 29 2024 High pressure builds east across the area today before departing to the east coast tonight and Friday.
- An upper level low is forecast to move into the region this weekend bringing in precipitation. The highest accumulations likely along the International Border. The warm front has stalled over the southwest. The gauge located near the railroad bridge continues to show a slow increase in river height, almost to minor stage. Currently under a short incoming ridge, a surface warm front is trying to make its way through the southwest part of the state. This is one reason the southwest will be much warmer, another is the ridge and warmer 850mb temps.
Temperatures are currently in the low to mid 50s across the northern ranchlands to the mid to upper 50s across the Rio Grande Valley and should drop a few more degrees by sunrise. A coastal trough/low is expected to develop today. Otherwise, cloudy and cool today with highs in the mid 50s to the lower 60s. Highs today are a little tricky as the colder NAM is indicating much cooler temperatures across the CWA for today. Cloudy and cooler tonight with lows ranging from the low to mid 50s across much of the area, except for the mid to upper 50s along the coast. Friday will be mild with highs in the mid to upper 60s at the beaches to the low to mid 70s along and west of the I-69E/US Hwy 77 corridor.
For today, the big story is very dry air in the lower levels. The flow turns to more ERLY tonight as the main ridge moves EWD toward the East Coast. Fortunately, for fire weather conditions, our winds will not be nearly as high and gusty as yesterday with the ridge around and more relaxed surface pressure gradients. However, minimum RH percentages will still go down into the lower to mid 20s for today.
951 AM EST Thu Feb 29 2024 High pressure building over the Ohio River valley will push to the east today, moving offshore the Mid-Atlantic tonight. Meanwhile, low pressure will develop over the western Gulf of Mexico and eventually move northeast, bringing unsettled weather for the weekend. The 12z RAOB out of GSO highlights the drastic regime change behind the cold front from last night.
(Today) Ongoing high cloud cover moving into the Tennessee Valley from the West and the aftermath of the cold front yesterday will allow high temperatures to remain in the low to mid 50s today.
High pressure will build into the Mid Atlantic States behind an exiting cold front. As a result, expect dry weather through the day with temperatures cooler than normal. As surface and 850 mb ridging shift offshore tonight southerly return flow will lead to moisture increases, bringing PWATs back to around an inch. What is known is that the coldest values will be over the northwestern counties with warmer values closer to the coast, possibly aided by warm air advection.
High pressure builds in tonight with clearing skies and light winds possibly affording an opportunity to undercut minT guidance given dry air/radiational cooling. High pressure moving just offshore on Friday will allow for a clear and cool start to the day, with high clouds developing as the day goes on. Fri afternoon will be much warmer than Thu, with highs in the 40s. A weak area of low pressure will sneak up the coast Sat-Sun. Although moisture will be limited, there will be just enough onshore flow to hold temps to the low to mid 40s. An upper ridge will build over the east coast to start the first week of March.
353 PM EST Thu Feb 29 2024 Lake effect snow showers will be coming to an end this evening with high pressure building in. Temperatures will turn warmer tomorrow and then a return to upper 50s to lower 60s is expected by the end of the weekend.
(Rest of today through Friday) Dry and pleasant weather continues today as South FL remains under the influence of a mid-level ridge that extends from the Yucatan Peninsula up across the eastern Gulf of Mexico and into the western Atlantic. At the surface, a stalled frontal boundary over north- central FL and high pressure over the Atlantic will lead to light easterly flow over the area. , flattening and weakening the ridge that has been in place. Despite the increasing moisture and flattening ridge, there will be just enough suppression to keep rain chances lower. Temperatures will remain warm on Friday, with highs in the low 80s.
- Highs will be in the low to mid 40s Thursday and Friday, then climbing into the low to mid 60s by the weekend.
While there were several sleet reports this morning there were no accumulations thanks to temperatures above freezing.
As high pressure slowly shifts east today, sfc flow will gradually veer to the east and moisture will begin increasing later this evening. Highs will remain limited to the low to mid 50s today with mostly cloudy skies in place.
Low-level clouds will continue to build across the area today as a weakening cold front drifts southward across the peninsula. An area of high pressure to the north will shift eastward today, with winds locally veering to out of the east-northeast. A weak cold front will continue southward across the local waters, stalling over the Treasure Coast waters this afternoon. (12Z TAFS) MVFR CIGs forecast to continue across the terminals as a weak cold front drifts southward across the Florida peninsula, with cloud coverage building.
(This afternoon through Friday Night) It's a cool afternoon across the area with temperatures in the lower to mid 40s.
(This evening through Friday) A compact but potent upper level low centered over the TX Panhandle at midday will continue to accelerate northeastward and is on track to exit our area by this evening. Despite the clearing skies and snow cover over the SW TX Panhandle, temperatures will remain only seasonably chilly as continuing south to southwest breezes prevent most locations from falling much below the lower 30s tonight. The atmosphere will dry considerably on Friday as the upper low continues to exit to our northeast and flow aloft becomes more zonal.
Currently, we have a high pressure off to our southeast and a wave approaching from the west this evening and tonight.
1006 AM EST Thu Feb 29 2024 High pressure will pass across the area today and tonight. High pressure will then become reestablished over the weekend with a warming trend. High pressure will build into the area today. The high will pass off to the east tonight.
256 PM EST Thu Feb 29 2024 (This afternoon through Friday) At a glance: - Cloudy, dry, and mild today - Unseasonably cool and rainy Friday Cooler, drier air has settled in across north and central Georgia in the wake of yesterday's cold front. Supported by a brief period of zonal flow aloft and high pressure at the surface, expect relatively tranquil conditions today. Highs will be in the mid-50s to lower-60s -- some 15-20 degrees cooler than yesterday -- with lows in the 40s.
340 PM EST Thu Feb 29 2024 High pressure over the region will move to the Mid Atlantic coast by Friday morning.
High pressure moving just offshore on Friday will allow for a clear and cool start to the day, with high clouds developing as the day goes on. Fri afternoon will be much warmer than Thu, with highs in the 40s. A weak area of low pressure will sneak up the coast Sat-Sun. Although moisture will be limited, there will be just enough onshore flow to hold temps to the low to mid 40s. An upper ridge will build over the east coast to start the first week of March.
With the upper bounding not being too much higher than that, heavy rainfall potential is on the lower end of the threat list. Thus, as storms develop and track southwest to northeast across the CWA, could see some strong storms with sub-severe hail track across the lower half of the local area Friday.
Pattern Synopsis: As of early this afternoon, 1035 mb high pressure was centered across the central Ohio Valley. Surface ridging extended northward into northern Michigan. Flow across the Great Lakes region will be mainly southerly, bringing warmer air and moisture (at times) into the region. Flow will continue to be split as a ridge of high pressure builds across the midwest.
211 PM EST Thu Feb 29 2024 - Return to warmer than normal temperatures this weekend.
Mid afternoon surface analysis had a 1032mb high centered over the Ohio river valley that was ridging back to the southwest across the northern portions of our CWA. Temperatures tonight will be a little warmer than last night and the warming trend will continue tomorrow as temperatures top out several degrees warmer than today.
1134 AM CST Thu Feb 29 2024 - Warmer today with a 30% chance for light snow along the Canadian Border and Arrowhead.
Temperatures for locations underneath the clouds only top out in the upper 40s to low 50s today while locations with sunshine could climb into the low to mid 60s this afternoon. Friday afternoon trends much warmer across the region with highs in the 70s from the help of plenty of sunshine, light southerly winds and a primarily zonal flow aloft. Friday night trends milder as well with the lows ranging from the mid 40s into the mid 50s.
1159 AM CST Thu Feb 29 2024 We have been receiving isolated reports this morning of sleet mixing in with light rain along the I-30 corridor of east Texas into southwest Arkansas, due to an extremely dry layer below 7000 ft resulting in evaporative cooling, despite the well above freezing surface temperatures.
However, the best chance of a wintry mix will occur over the higher terrain (Ouachita/Boston Mountains) as the trough axis slides by. Ground-level temperatures should remain just above freezing through the night in most locations and therefore, neither snow/sleet accumulations nor winter weather impacts are expected. Otherwise, near seasonal temperatures are expected tonight, with lows generally reaching the low-mid 30s.
1244 PM EST Thu Feb 29 2024 High pressure will pass across the area today and tonight. High pressure will then become reestablished over the weekend with a warming trend. High pressure will build into the area today. The high will pass off to the east tonight.
Near the surface, a lee side trough of low pressure is strengthening in eastern Colorado. This combined with southwesterly downsloping, reinforcing much drier air in the lower/mid levels, will keep precip chances (<10%) out of southwest/central Kansas through Friday evening. Temperatures will not be quite as cold tonight as prevailing southwesterlies drawing slightly warmer air into the area helps keep lows from dropping much below freezing. 1 indicates a 70-90% probability of temperatures exceeding 70F Friday afternoon, look for highs generally in the 60s(F) in central/south central Kansas to the lower/mid 70s(F) in extreme southwest Kansas.
1119 AM CST Thu Feb 29 2024 - Much warmer today, with a continued warming trend through the weekend.
Strong high pressure will build across the Eastern Seaboard this afternoon behind a decaying cold front currently draped over northern Florida.
1237 PM EST Thu Feb 29 2024 High pressure building over the Ohio River valley will push to the east today, moving offshore the Mid-Atlantic tonight. Meanwhile, low pressure will develop over the western Gulf of Mexico and eventually move northeast, bringing unsettled weather for the weekend. The 12z RAOB out of GSO highlights the drastic regime change behind the cold front from last night.
Thanks to the dense cloud coverage, the temperatures are not expected to change much tonight with the lows still in the 50s for tonight. Thus Friday, while cloudy is expected to be a mild day with warmer temperatures. The temperatures will be highly dependent on the movement on the coastal trough as it moves away and how quickly the cloud cover moves away. The clouds are expected to clear out west to east, so the western parts of the CWA are expected to be warmer tomorrow. However, if the clouds hold in place longer, then the temperatures will be cooler.
More sun and much much warmer on Friday with highs pushing well into the 70s. Highs will be in the low to mid 80s, with overnight lows generally in the 50s.
355 PM EST Thu Feb 29 2024 - A mid/upper level short wave trough will bring light rain to the area Friday into Friday night. The combination of warm air advection/isentropic lift on the back side of the high coupled with upper level support from the approaching wave will bring increasing clouds tonight and eventually rain on Friday into Friday night.