Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
The main weather feature has been this upper trough that is responsible for bringing down the smoke from the northwest. This upper trough will continue to move to the east but we will hang on to the northwest flow through Monday which will mean another round of smoke for the region. Tuesday will be the coolest day of the weak as the post frontal environment will be entrenched across the region, but we will be tracking the ridge axis become more dominant across the four corners and this feature will be the main weather driver come midweek for western SD and eastern WY.
Dry weather and above normal temperatures will continue today with the highest heat shifting eastward. However, temperatures are expected to remain in the upper 90's to 105, with the highest temperatures in Trinity County.
Temperatures near the seasonal average are likely tonight as slightly cooler air filters southwest into the area on the north side of a near-stationary boundary to our south, not to mention cooling from showers/thunderstorms moving through overnight. The cooler air mass will lower H85 temperatures to a little below 20C in central Kansas Monday to near 20C farther west. Considering the HREF indicates a 70-80% probability of temperatures climbing above 75F in west central Kansas to a 60-80% probability of nudging above 80F in central/south central Kansas, afternoon highs may struggle to climb out of the 70s(F) out west with the lower/mid 80s(F) farther east.
Precipitation chances will return to the forecast Monday afternoon and evening as the ridge that has been promoting dry conditions shifts a little further to the southeast and convection associated with a weak area of low pressure to our west drifts into the region.
Ahead of a cold front humidity will begin to increase tomorrow, such that dangerous levels of heat index values may be reached across the Lake Plain, Genesee Valley and northern Finger Lakes.
Upper level ridging continues to persist overhead and as a result, a mostly dry forecast is once again expected. Some weak moisture advection will raise dewpoints back into the lower 70s and combined with afternoon highs upper 80s to lower 90s, heat indices will be in the mid to upper 90s. The highest values will be in northwest AL.
The upper-level anticyclone that has been positioned well offshore of the Southeast U.
- Dry weather and more comfortable humidity arrives mid-week, but warmer and more humid conditions along with a chance of storms returns late in the week. We remain ahead of primary cold front over MN and in a very moist airmass with PWAT this morning at GRB of 1. Still keeping eye on Tuesday as approach of sharper mid-level trough will increase shear to 35+ kts. Stronger dynamics, including RRQ of upper jet, along with building instability coming together during peak heating ahead of a cold front could support risk for at least isolated severe storms during the afternoon.
/issued 108 PM PDT Sun Aug 10 2025/ Strong high pressure will build over the Pacific Northwest today and remain over the area through Monday before getting pushed southward on Tuesday. The ridge of high pressure will bring very hot temperatures to the area, beginning today and peaking Monday and Tuesday.
Ensemble High-Res Short-range upper-air analysis has seen further amplification of the associated high pressure ridge over the West. Even as 24 hour change in temperature backing off on running warmer, PoE now has a much wider coverage of PoE at or above 50%. Until the ridge pattern breaks down due to a passing Pacific Northwest disturbance, the region will be dominated by the heat.
200 AM EDT Mon Aug 11 2025 Dry and hot weather is expected through early Tuesday under high pressure.
Possibly into the low 90s mid-week. This will continue through tonight until a cold front and associated trough push the smoke east on Monday. Monday will be warmer, especially east ahead of the cold front. The aforementioned cold front and wave will move northwest to southeast through the state. When the cold front eventually makes it into the southeast, that added lift and shear could produce isolate severe storms after 4pm. Model soundings do have a weak inverted V in the low levels, indicating a potential for severe gusts. Tuesday will then be dry as northwest flow moves back in, with a thermal ridge boosting temperatures. Mid-week we could see temperatures in the low 90s across the south and maybe into the central.
111 AM EDT Mon Aug 11 2025 - Hot and humid through Tuesday with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s and heat indices in the low to mid 90s.
135 AM EDT Mon Aug 11 2025 High pressure centered off the Mid Atlantic coast will continue to extend over central North Carolina this morning. This high pressure will gradually weaken and drift southeastward through mid week, returning our area to more typical summertime weather, with scattered late-day showers and storms. The latest surface analysis shows a weak/diffuse frontal zone stretching SW-to-NE through the CWA, as weakening high pressure centered off the Mid Atlantic coast extends narrowly to the SW to the N of the frontal zone, across our NW and far N. Cloud cover and rain chances will hold down the diurnal temp range, with highs expected to only reach around 80 to the lower 80s.
144 AM EDT Mon Aug 11 2025 High pressure will continue to influence the region into Tuesday.
Following into midweek, South Texas will be sandwiched between two high pressure systems, keeping diurnally driven (daytime heating and seabreeze) low chances of showers and thunderstorms.
Otherwise, rest of forecast for today is largely on track with scattered showers and storms returning to mainly southern Iowa from later this morning into tonight as the low and associated boundary driving storms over KS early this morning lifts north to northeast towards and into the state, lingering until late tonight before it gets pushed back southward as another boundary moves across from the north on Tuesday. Iowa will be in the long wave trough Monday night and transition to northwest flow Tuesday.
- An easterly wave/inverted trough feature will continue to move west across the northern Gulf into Texas through mid-week helping to increase rain chances over the area, especially near the seabreeze boundary.
Temperatures will continue to trend warm and in the low 90s to start the week, with balmy lows in the mid 70s and low 80s overnight.
Brusda /Issued 542 PM MDT Sun Aug 10 2025/ - Meteorological Overview: Northwesterly flow has replaced a slow moving upper level low that had lingered over the area over the past few days, which will help bring a drier and gradually warmer pattern to the area.
By the middle to end of the week, the retrograded ridge begins to beak down, due to another trough developing off the SOCAL coast.
An inverted trough extending from the northeast Gulf across northeast Florida will progress farther northwestward into our area today as ridging builds over the western Atlantic. The aforementioned subtropical ridge over the western Atlantic will continue to expand westward on Tuesday, bringing a return to southerly flow more typical of August.
201 AM EDT Mon Aug 11 2025 High pressure remains in place today and tomorrow with temperatures remaining warm.
Iowa will be in the long wave trough Monday night and transition to northwest flow Tuesday.
220 AM EDT Mon Aug 11 2025 High pressure will remain ridged southeast of the region through Tuesday night.
234 AM MDT Mon Aug 11 2025 - A bit warmer today with isolated showers and thunderstorms in Johnson and Natrona Counties.
Better chances for showers and thunderstorms look to potentially return by the middle to end of this week, along with cooler temperatures. High pressure now in place over California and Nevada will continue to pump dry northwesterly flow into Arizona today. Some shallow surface moisture from decaying storms over the Lower Deserts may help to back moisture up to the Rim, but the odds still look to favor mainly dry conditions.
108 AM EDT Mon Aug 11 2025 Unseasonably hot temperatures are expected to continue for the North Country through Tuesday as high pressure builds over the region.
Low pressure was located over northwestern Ontario this afternoon with a stationary boundary extending southward into the Upper Mississippi Valley. However, an isolated shower or rumble of thunder cannot be ruled out across northwestern Wisconsin in the vicinity of the front, or across our far northwestern areas with wraparound activity from the low. Dry and continued warm conditions will be in place for Monday, although dewpoints will be in the low 60s, so it shouldn't be too muggy like we saw last week. Highs will be in the lower 80s. There may be a window for a few strong to marginally severe storms Monday evening across parts of Koochiching and Itasca counties as a surface cold front starts to enter the area. A few showers and non-severe storms may linger into Tuesday as the trough axis swings through.
High temperatures are expected to be in the low to mid 90s with heat indices climbing into the low 100s by midweek.
- Dry weather and more comfortable humidity arrives mid-week, but warmer and more humid conditions along with a chance of storms returns late in the week. The sunshine should boost temperatures into the lower to middle 80s most locations. Tuesday still looks interesting, as a stronger cold front, short- wave trough, RRQ of an upper jet, CAPE of 1000-1500 j/kg and much stronger deep layer shear of 35-50 kts move through northeast WI during peak heating.
Tuesday through the upcoming weekend, an upper/mid level ridge will build in aloft of Florida, providing broad subsidence and allowing temperatures to begin to climb upwards.
The environment has largely struggled to recover from this mornings convection, with the highest instability (500-1500 J/kg) residing over far southwestern Wisconsin westward into northeast Iowa. Confidence is not high regarding Monday's precipitation probabilities as the high pressure could result in the showers/storms staying southeast. CAMs have struggled to agree on a solution regarding the evolution of possible convection on Monday, so have gone with the lower end probabilities for the time being. Predictability increases for Tuesday as global deterministic models are in better agreement regarding an upper level trough pivoting eastward across the Northern Plains and Great Lakes with a surface boundary being dragged southeastward through the region. Drier and More Seasonable by Mid-Week A zonal to slight ridging pattern develops in the wake of the upper trough by mid week, bringing a pattern more favorable for drier weather.
Tuesday the general trof pattern aloft continues to shift east and with the stalled front still present, more showers and storms are expected throughout the day (30-50% chance). Once the front dissolves though and ridging starts to take its place, things start to dry out by mid to late week along with warming temperatures heading into the weekend.
- Turning dry Tuesday and warmer by weeks end with some risk for rain/storms very late in the forecast.
352 AM EDT Mon Aug 11 2025 - Warm and muggy conditions continue today through Tuesday with highs in the low 90s and heating indices in the mid-90s. - High pressure brings less humid conditions for the latter half of the week. Governing high amplitude ridging maintains control through at least the first half of the daylight period today, with deeper layer stability held under a warm mid level profile lacking in meaningful thermal/moisture advection.
Highs today will only reach the low 80s, and lows tonight will fall to the low 70s. As high pressure is pushed over our area the coastal trough offshore will dissipate through the day Tuesday. The high will settle loosely over the area with SW flow leading to the start of a warmup and more summerlike conditions. Rain chances will be a bit higher for Tuesday due to the local enhancement still around but it will be drier Tuesday night with the arrival of the high.
343 AM EDT Mon Aug 11 2025 Widespread showers expected today as coastal trough and warm front lift through. Below normal temps will continue with clouds and precip, with highs generally in the low 80s. Front and trough will dissipate tonight as low level flow becomes more southerly across the area. Patchy inland fog and low stratus likely again overnight, with lows in the low 70s.
- The second half of the week continues to look warmer and more active with multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms through the end of the period. Other than those concerns, today will be quiet with temperatures in the low 80s. Overnight, an approaching cold front will bring chances for showers and thunderstorms into early Tuesday.
Temperatures in northern Oklahoma are already easily surpassing 90 degrees while temperatures in southern Kansas remain in the low to mid 80s.
341 AM EDT Mon Aug 11 2025 High pressure along the East Coast will continue to influence the region today.
An inverted low- to mid-level trough is located over the eastern Gulf this morning.
Very warm temperatures make a return to the region on Monday as warmer air surges eastward ahead of an approaching cold front. As the cold front moves through during the late afternoon and evening hours, HREF paintball output shows a handful/several CAMs with widely scattered shower and thunderstorm activity across the northern CWA. This will also lead to general increases in unstable air across the region, as models also show frontal boundaries and waves of low pressure moving across the Northern Plains.
Highs will be in the lower 90s for most locations away from the coast with upper 80s to near 90 at the beaches.
- Pattern change Tuesday, with cooler weather and coastal drizzle returning to the forecast.
701 AM EDT Mon Aug 11 2025 Dry and hot weather is expected through early Tuesday under high pressure.
- Dry weather and more comfortable humidity arrives mid-week, but warmer and more humid conditions along with a chance of storms return late in the week. The sunshine should boost temperatures into the lower to middle 80s most locations. Tuesday still looks interesting, as a stronger cold front, short- wave trough, RRQ of an upper jet, CAPE of 1000-1500 j/kg and much stronger deep layer shear of 35-50 kts move through northeast WI during peak heating.
514 AM MDT Mon Aug 11 2025 - A bit warmer today with isolated showers and thunderstorms in Johnson and Natrona Counties.
The 11/00Z 500 mb upper air plot placed the upper high centered near Reno and a tail end of upper trof moving through NM. Tuesday is trending to be a much more active day with the steering flow out of the N-NE as the upper high is centered over northern Arizona. Min RHs will generally be around 15-25 percent in the lower elevations and 20-35+ percent in the mountains.
The Desert Southwest remains sandwiched between two ridges - one over the northeastern Pacific Ocean and one over New Mexico.
The strongest storms (and thus the highest potential for impacts) are likely from 20Z to 23Z or so, before activity diminishes overnight. Tuesday through the upcoming weekend, an upper/mid level ridge will build in aloft of Florida, providing broad subsidence and allowing temperatures to begin to climb upwards.
- A fairly quiet mid-week leads to a warmer and possibly more active weather pattern for storms late week. Rain Chances Tonight in Southwest WI and Adjacent Northeast IA Current radar shows a very active thunderstorm night over Kansas in the base of a large scale mid-level trough over the central CONUS. This general troughiness and the vigorous wrn Neb rotation will shift east today and provide a bit of a moisture transport enhancement into eastern IA and southern WI. Also, the new RAP is more vigorous with the low-level jet over IA tonight as a result, as that wave moves east. The latest NBM probs for rain are very low, probably due to the low PoP bias for light QPF systems, so have gone toward a blend of the raw operational models for rain chances (40-50% for now).
- Additional chances for thunderstorms will occur this evening into the overnight hours, and then again along a cold front on Tuesday evening. - Remaining humid until a cold front passes Tuesday night.
646 AM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025 An inverted low- to mid-level trough is located over the eastern Gulf this morning.
614 AM EDT Mon Aug 11 2025 High pressure remains in place today and tomorrow with temperatures remaining warm.
649 AM EDT Mon Aug 11 2025 - Hot and humid through Tuesday with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s and heat indices in the low to mid 90s.
From synopsis, an Atlantic Ridge will continue to build westward and across the Keys. The ridge will buckle briefly mid week, allowing for breezes to slacken temporarily.
629 AM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025 - An easterly wave/inverted trough feature will continue to move west across the northern Gulf into Texas through mid-week helping to increase rain chances over the area, especially near the seabreeze boundary.
The best opportunity for showers and storms (50-70%) will arrive mid afternoon Tuesday into Tuesday evening as the upstream frontal zone finally gets a push east in response to an upper trough releasing east through the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes.
- Unsettled pattern could continue across the region into the middle/end of the week, before upper-ridging returns Another hot and humid day across the Four State Region.
Ridging is building back in across the state as an MCS persists over the E Gulf this afternoon. Over the next several days, ridging will build back in overhead with the flow gradually shifting from ESE to more E, and eventually rather light and variable. As the ridge settles overhead, this could lead to stronger subsidence that suppresses thunderstorm development and pushes temperatures higher. So while there could be some nuances and potentially warmer temperatures towards the end of the week, the overall expectation is for summertime weather to continue through the period.
Convergence along seabreeze boundaries, diurnal instability and weak forcing over deep south Texas are likely to continue to generate a near daily low (20-30%) chance of brief isolated showers and thunderstorms along and east of I-69 C as the region continues to be wedged between a mid-level high pressure over the Desert Southwest and another over the southern and southeastern US.
318 PM EDT Mon Aug 11 2025 Widespread showers expected today as coastal trough and warm front lift through. Efficient warm rain processes have led to periods of heavy rain and weak midlevel ridging means storms motions will be slow. Localized flooding possible, especially where backbuilding storms park, as evident by the newly issued flood advisories over SWern zones where the weak warm front is. Below normal temps will continue with clouds and precip, with highs generally in the low 80s. Front and trough will dissipate tonight as low level flow becomes more Serly across the area. Patchy inland fog and low stratus likely again overnight, with lows in the low 70s. High pressure offshore gradually sinks Sward through the period with midlevel ridge expanding Wward over SECONUS leading to weak, but more defined Serly flow through the column.
Daily high temperatures will be generally in the low to mid 90s with heat indices in the triple digits each day.
224 PM EDT Mon Aug 11 2025 High pressure remains centered just offshore in the Western Atlantic early this week.
High temperatures will jump several degrees as the high pressure continues to build in.
High pressure will build overhead heading into midweek maintaining the warming trend.
127 PM EDT Mon Aug 11 2025 - Hot and humid through Tuesday with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s and heat indices in the low to mid 90s.
In addition to the damaging winds, a brief funnel cannot be ruled out given the low level lift from the MCV.
(Rest of today and tonight) A mid-level trough will continue to move across the Plains today, and will provide enough large scale ascent for scattered thunderstorms this afternoon into the evening hours. Additional complex of storms may move off the high plains of Texas and move into southwestern portions of the area late tonight into the overnight hours.
205 PM EDT Mon Aug 11 2025 High pressure centered off the Mid Atlantic coast will drift toward Bermuda through mid-week.
The sunshine should boost temperatures into the lower to middle 80s most locations. Tuesday still looks interesting, as a stronger cold front, short- wave trough, RRQ of an upper jet, CAPE of 1000-1500 j/kg and much stronger deep layer shear of 35-50 kts move through northeast WI during peak heating.
- An easterly wave/inverted trough feature will continue to move west across the northern Gulf into Texas, increasing rain chances over the area.
While widespread precipitation is favored across the south, negative boundary interactions or a further south track of the trough could shunt the bulk of activity to Lubbock's CWA.
The heat will continue building today as high pressure nudges in from the coast.
208 PM EDT Mon Aug 11 2025 High pressure remains in control through tomorrow with temperatures remaining quite warm.
- A weak cold front will stall along the Island Ranges of Central Montana, with slightly cooler temperatures over the plains of Central and North Central Montana today while the valleys of Central and Southwest Montana warm further. - Isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected along and behind the cold front through this evening.
High pressure ridge continues to bring clear skies and diurnally-driven winds across all terminals. /issued 108 PM PDT Sun Aug 10 2025/ Strong high pressure will build over the Pacific Northwest today and remain over the area through Monday before getting pushed southward on Tuesday. The ridge of high pressure will bring very hot temperatures to the area, beginning today and peaking Monday and Tuesday.
- A weak cold front will drift southward this evening and overnight, resulting in a 20-30 percent chance for showers and thunderstorms along and north of the Highway 14 corridor.
149 PM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025 - Daily chances for showers and thunderstorms will continue through midweek with the highest chances on Tuesday afternoon (40-60%) as a cold front slowly works through the area.
Quiet conditions will occur across our CWA heading into the overnight period thanks to broad ridging over our area. Expect overnight lows to drop into the low to mid 70s areawide. This combined with afternoon highs in the low to mid 90s will lead to peak heat index values between 105F and 110F mainly for areas along and west of I-55. Please see the previous forecast discussion for more details: The area will continue to be under broad ridging through most of the week, which will gradually build, peaking by week's end. As the ridge shifts westward by the weekend, rain chances will decrease and heat will increase.
Water vapor imagery shows high pressure over the Great basin region, bringing northerly flow across the region. Tomorrow, the high pressure will be in a better location to bring the northerly to northeasterly flow across the region. As for the rest of the week, there will be daily chances for rain showers and thunderstorms as the high pressure center moves to our east slowly each day.
High pressure will be in place once again, however with an increase in moisture, we'll be a little bit more humid, thus heat index values will rise into the mid 90s to 100 degrees. Highest temps and heat index values will be felt in NW AL today as the low coverage (20-30%) of showers and a few storms today will mainly be east of I-65.
- The second half of the week continues to look warmer and more humid. GOES satellite imagery reveals a developing Cu field overhead & a swath of wildfire smoke ahead of an approaching cold front. High temperatures top out in the low to mid 80s with "comfortable" humidity levels & light SW winds. Overnight, an approaching cold front will move into western & central MN, bringing a band of scattered showers with it.