Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Deteriorating visibility, lowering ceilings, and terrain obscurations will continue through this morning across much of western Montana and north central Idaho as a low pressure system spreads moisture into the region. West to northwest winds will increase by Sunday afternoon sustaining near 15 kts at ridgetops with frequent gusts to near 30 kts. /ISSUED 342 AM MDT Sun May 18 2025/ KEY MESSAGES: - Wet system to bring moderate precipitation rates into Sunday with higher elevation snow - Cool and showery week ahead Precipitation will continue to spread through the majority of north central Idaho and western Montana this morning as a closed low pressure system moves through the region. Accumulating snow will be possible in the higher terrain, affecting higher elevation mountain passes such as Lolo, Lost Trail and Georgetown Lake.
Cooler weather continues through Monday with gusty southwest to west winds.
342 AM MDT Sun May 18 2025 KEY MESSAGES: - Wet system to bring moderate precipitation rates into Sunday with higher elevation snow - Cool and showery week ahead Precipitation will continue to spread through the majority of north central Idaho and western Montana this morning as a closed low pressure system moves through the region. Accumulating snow will be possible in the higher terrain, affecting higher elevation mountain passes such as Lolo, Lost Trail and Georgetown Lake.
649 AM CDT Sun May 18 2025 Updated aviation portion for 12Z TAF issuance - Cold tonight with a 70-90% chance of temperatures at or below freezing across northern Wisconsin.
626 AM EDT Sun May 18 2025 An upper level low will bring rain showers to our region today, with this activity ending from west to east tonight as cooler and drier air builds into our region.
955 AM EDT Sun May 18 2025 Overall expect a warm and generally dry next few days turning cooler and drier by the end of the work week.
832 AM EDT Sun May 18 2025 Low pressure lingers over the area Sunday into Monday bringing continued chances for showers.
Zonal flow will persist through the next 48 hours as we remain on the northern periphery of an upper level high. This setup will help keep mostly dry conditions across the area Sunday and Monday as subsidence from the upper ridge will likely squash most storms.
647 AM EDT Sun May 18 2025 Low pressure lingers over the area Sunday into Monday bringing continued chances for showers.
After this system passes, a ridge begins to build, increasing the temperatures into the triple digits.
735 AM EDT Sun May 18 2025 - Mild and Dry Today and Monday - April-like Week Ahead: Chilly, Occasionally Wet, and Breezy - Mild and Dry Today and Monday Upper troughing slowly pulls away from the region today into Monday. For Monday, a mix of clouds and sun is forecast with similar temperatures as upper ridging briefly moves in.
734 AM EDT Sun May 18 2025 * Cooler today with isolated showers possible in the northern and central mountains.
643 AM EDT Sun May 18 2025 Overall expect a warm and generally dry next few days turning cooler and drier by the end of the new work week.
As the low pressure trough moves east over the next several days, a ridge develops quickly warming temperatures and rendering a shallower marine layer.
The upper level trough has moved to the east, but onshore flow will keep showers lingering along the Cascades through this morning.
1047 AM EDT Sun May 18 2025 Low pressure lingers over the area Sunday into Monday bringing continued chances for showers.
910 AM EDT Sun May 18 2025 * Cooler today with isolated showers possible in the northern and central mountains.
723 AM EDT Sun May 18 2025 * Cooler today with isolated showers possible in the northern and central mountains.
325 PM EDT Sun May 18 2025 * Cooler today with isolated showers possible in the northern and central mountains.
1239 PM MDT Sun May 18 2025 -Unsettled pattern continues this week -Widespread rain amounts of 1-2 inches are expected through Monday night, highest in the eastern Black Hills and adjacent foothills where locally higher amounts are possible -Snow can be expected in the Black Hills tonight into Monday night above 5500 ft, with 2-4 inches possible above 6000 ft -Cool through mid week with some warming for the second half of the week Deep upper trough now pushing through the Rockies today and will support widespread rains and some snow, mainly at high elevations. Models are still indicating widespread amounts over an inch across much of the FA, with the highest amounts (locally 2-3 inches) expected along the eastern slopes of the BH where upslope enhancement will be in place.
Upper level low pressure near the Four Corners Region is responsible for the breezy/gusty north winds and low RH values.
(Today through Monday afternoon) The hot, dry, and windy conditions continue today as another upper trough approaches helping to increase southwesterly flow aloft. Low level thermal ridging anchored directly over the region will lead to another day of highs well into the 90s and 100s. The base of the upper trough passes to our north during the day Monday. Lowering heights and the low-level thermal ridge displaced to our east will allow high temperatures to cool a few degrees from what we will see today.
1233 PM CDT Sun May 18 2025 (Today through Monday) Upper ridging continued over the Gulf and extended northwestward into the Great Plains states. An upper trough was centered over Nevada. Low pressure over Colorado had a frontal boundary eastward near Interstate 40. Ridging, surface and aloft, isn't going much of anywhere through Monday. The upper trough to the west will shift eastward to the lee side of the Rockies by Monday afternoon.
(This evening through Monday Night) A weak impulse skirting along the northern periphery of the ridge is producing a couple of sprinkles north of I-10.
Isolated showers will primarily affect the higher terrain of southwest Idaho and southeast Oregon, with limited accumulation expected. Skies will start off partly to mostly cloudy but trend sunnier through the afternoon as drier air settles in behind the low.
122 PM EDT Sun May 18 2025 Overall expect a warm and generally dry next few days turning cooler and drier by the end of the work week.
The low level jet will pick up, increasing wind shear. Tomorrow, the upper trough will push in from the west, moving over our area late Monday. Ahead of this trough, another round of severe weather is expected.
1042 AM CDT Sun May 18 2025 We've had some light radar returns along an outflow boundary this morning, which has helped keep temperatures cooler than expected in our northern zones.
An upper level low is going to meander from N NY to just off the Atlantic Coast of New England and Nova Scotia on Monday. Tonight as the upper level low moves east, the skies will begin to clear. Overnight lows likely falls into the mid to upper 30s with pockets of freezing in deeper river valleys across the Twin Tiers and into the Catskills.
257 PM EDT Sun May 18 2025 * Cooler today with isolated showers possible in the northern and central mountains.
Models generally show the front struggling to make much northward progress during the short term period, but some moistening of the lower levels is expected especially across the south tonight into Monday.
Warm overnight lows in the lower to mid-70s are expected.
Wind Advisory will continue as we've seen plenty of wind gusts of 45 to 55 mph in parts of the eastern Magic Valley and even a few gusts into High Wind Warning territory up on some ridge tops. We're getting plenty of rain and mountain snow today as this upper level trough continues to work its way through Eastern Idaho.
(Through Monday) Ridging is expected to build back over the area tonight into Monday, keeping conditions very hot and dry once again. Low temperatures have struggled to fall out of the 70s in the mornings, and given the expected ceiling forecast to develop again overnight, opted to keep forecast lows in the low to mid 70s.
1206 PM CDT Sun May 18 2025 We've had some light radar returns along an outflow boundary this morning, which has helped keep temperatures cooler than expected in our northern zones.
327 PM EDT Sun May 18 2025 - Chilly night tonight, Patchy Frost Possible in the North - Unseasonably Cool and Cloudy This Week - Widespread Soaking Rain Likely Midweek - Chilly night tonight, Patchy Frost Possible in the North A chilly airmass has moved into Lower Michigan after last week's heat and humidity - 850 MB temperatures will be sagging into the low single digits overnight tonight. Weak ridging at both the surface and aloft moves into the state tonight, which will weaken pressure gradients and try to get rid of some of the lingering cloudiness. An upper trough moving out of the Rockies tonight will turn into a weakly closed upper low that drifts our direction and lingers through at least midweek.
A large scale trough is in place over the western U.
343 PM EDT Sun May 18 2025 High pressure will remain over the area into Monday evening.
1239 PM CDT Sun May 18 2025 Updated aviation portion for 18Z TAF issuance - Cold tonight with a 70-90% chance of temperatures at or below freezing across northern Wisconsin.
At the surface, low pressure is strengthening over southeast CO with a warm front just south of the KS/OK border and a dryline through the OK and TX Panhandles. Meanwhile, the warm front will stretch in a northwest to southeast fashion from central KS into eastern portions of the state. Confidence is increasing that we will not see much convection near or north of the warm front this morning into the early afternoon. This should be enough to get some storms on the dryline, warm front or both. The main questions will be how far north the warm front makes it and how low clouds play into storm initiation. By 12z Tue, upper impulse will be lifting into eastern Nebraska and IA with the better precip chances also situated near the upper low.
152 PM EDT Sun May 18 2025 Low pressure moving through the region will bring cool and showery weather today into tomorrow. Cooler weather and additional chances for showers can be expected throughout the upcoming week. Scattered to numerous showers continue under the upper low that is dragging across the North Country. A closed upper level low will continue to track eastward across the region, which will bring additional showers to the region throughout the day. Temperatures today will be much cooler compared to recent days, with afternoon highs only climbing into the 50s to lower 60s. As the low continues to pull eastward, shower activity will become less widespread, becoming more focused to the higher terrain and northeastern Vermont under northwesterly flow. Broad cyclonic flow will continue to bring some chances for showers, mainly confined to the higher terrain.
356 PM CDT Sun May 18 2025 This afternoon through Monday night: On the larger scale, the upper level ridge is building back over the forecast area ahead of the next approaching front.
- Meteorological Overview: Today an upper-level trough is over North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana. This trough will gradually slide east away from Montana through the day on Monday exiting the area Monday night.
145 PM EDT Sun May 18 2025 - Mild and Dry Today and Monday - April-like Week Ahead: Chilly, Occasionally Wet, and Breezy - Mild and Dry Today and Monday Upper troughing slowly pulls away from the region today into Monday. For Monday, a mix of clouds and sun is forecast with similar temperatures as upper ridging briefly moves in.
1219 PM CDT Sun May 18 2025 Zonal flow will persist through the next 48 hours as we remain on the northern periphery of an upper level high. This setup will help keep mostly dry conditions across the area Sunday and Monday as subsidence from the upper ridge will likely squash most storms.
The main story will be the heat, with highs each day topping out in the mid to sometimes upper 90s away from the coast and heat indices reaching the low 100s. As we head toward the end of the week, ridging starts to flatten as troughing moves by to our north.
Deep layered ridging remains in control of the region with robust lower to mid level ridging aligned across Florida. The upper level ridge is gradually flattening out but is holding on and not expected to go anywhere. Meanwhile, the surface Atlantic ridge is expected to remain across South Florida despite being under pressure by a mid latitude low swinging up along the Atlantic Coast. The modest ridging over Florida will maintain gentle east to southeasterly breezes along the Keys. Dew points will remain in the lower to mid 70s. Weak Atlantic ridging will continue to stretch across South Florida overnight.
Temperatures ranged from the upper 60s, in rain cooled areas, to the lower 80s where abundant sunshine has been seen on visible satellite. Some strong to severe storms could develop with large hail and damaging winds the primary hazards near a Nwrd lifting warm front. Synoptically, SW flow was in place between an upper trough over the Rockies and subtle upper ridge over the MS Delta Region.
726 PM EDT Sun May 18 2025 * Cooler today with isolated showers possible in the northern and central mountains.
616 PM CDT Sun May 18 2025 Updated aviation portion for 00Z TAF issuance - Cold tonight with a 60-100% chance of temperatures at or below freezing across northern Wisconsin.
Tonight, temperatures will fall into the low 70s and upper 60s. Lingering convection is expected to be cleared out by Monday morning as drier air advects into the region and high pressure ridging extends over the forecast area from out of the southeast.
A weak short wave trough will bring a chance (mainly 30-60 percent, except 60-80 percent in the far north) of showers Monday afternoon and evening.
712 PM CDT Sun May 18 2025 This afternoon through Monday night: On the larger scale, the upper level ridge is building back over the forecast area ahead of the next approaching front.
526 PM MDT Sun May 18 2025 -Unsettled pattern continues this week -Widespread rain amounts of 1-2 inches are expected through Monday night, highest in the eastern Black Hills and adjacent foothills where locally higher amounts are possible -Snow can be expected in the Black Hills tonight into Monday night above 5500 ft, with 2-4 inches possible above 6000 ft -Cool through mid week with some warming for the second half of the week Deep upper trough now pushing through the Rockies today and will support widespread rains and some snow, mainly at high elevations. Models are still indicating widespread amounts over an inch across much of the FA, with the highest amounts (locally 2-3 inches) expected along the eastern slopes of the BH where upslope enhancement will be in place.
737 PM EDT Sun May 18 2025 - Chilly night tonight, Patchy Frost Possible in the North - Unseasonably Cool and Cloudy This Week - Widespread Soaking Rain Likely Midweek - Chilly night tonight, Patchy Frost Possible in the North A chilly airmass has moved into Lower Michigan after last week's heat and humidity - 850 MB temperatures will be sagging into the low single digits overnight tonight. Weak ridging at both the surface and aloft moves into the state tonight, which will weaken pressure gradients and try to get rid of some of the lingering cloudiness. An upper trough moving out of the Rockies tonight will turn into a weakly closed upper low that drifts our direction and lingers through at least midweek.
708 PM EDT Sun May 18 2025 A reinforcing cold front will cross through the area tonight.
720 PM EDT Sun May 18 2025 High pressure will remain over the area into Monday evening.
* Breezy conditions and increased chances of showers may return late this week as weak low pressure areas brush by the region. The upcoming week will feature much warmer weather as high pressure overspreads the western states.
Cooler weather continues through Monday, with strong southwest to west winds.
This will allow for most inland areas to warm to seasonal levels, although coastal areas and the Umpqua Valley may stay cooler. From the middle to the end of the week, the Oregon coast will be in the low to mid 60s. West side valleys will be in the mid to high 70s, while areas east of the Cascades look to be in the low to mid 70s.
710 PM CDT Sun May 18 2025 (This evening through Monday Night) A weak impulse skirting along the northern periphery of the ridge is producing a couple of sprinkles north of I-10.
Issued by National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 743 PM EDT Sun May 18 2025 (Through Monday) Ridging is expected to build back over the area tonight into Monday, keeping conditions very hot and dry once again. Low temperatures have struggled to fall out of the 70s in the mornings, and given the expected ceiling forecast to develop again overnight, opted to keep forecast lows in the low to mid 70s.
No change to the overall pattern across the Florida peninsula as high pressure surface and aloft will continue to dominate the weather over the area. and the lower to mid 70s central and south. Highs will run in the mid to upper 80s along the coast as temperatures will be held down due to onshore winds off the relatively cooler Gulf waters, but will be in the lower to mid 90s inland. The main story will be the heat, with highs each day topping out in the mid to sometimes upper 90s away from the coast and heat indices reaching the low 100s. As we head toward the end of the week, ridging starts to flatten as troughing moves by to our north.
440 PM CDT Sun May 18 2025 Forecast discussion for routine afternoon forecast issuance - Cold tonight with a 60-100% chance of temperatures at or below freezing across northern Wisconsin.
/Issued 250 PM MDT Sun May 18 2025/ - Meteorological Overview: Today an upper-level trough is over North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana. This trough will gradually slide east away from Montana through the day on Monday exiting the area Monday night.
913 PM EDT Sun May 18 2025 High pressure will remain over the area into Monday evening.
Temperatures are still lingering in the mid to upper 70's and even the low 80's across the Shreveport/Bossier metro. Convection aside, temperatures should maintain in the low and mid 70's overnight with cloud coverage expected to continue through the early AM hours of Monday.
212 AM EDT Mon May 19 2025 High pressure will remain over the area into Monday evening. Low pressure will approach the area on Tuesday and move through Tuesday night.
A couple of degrees warmer today for some and markedly more humid. It should remain mostly to our south, but as the day progresses, a warm front will lift north to our west.
159 AM EDT Mon May 19 2025 - Chilly night tonight, Patchy Frost Possible in the North - Unseasonably Cool and Cloudy This Week - Widespread Soaking Rain Likely Midweek - Chilly night tonight, Patchy Frost Possible in the North A chilly airmass has moved into Lower Michigan after last week's heat and humidity - 850 MB temperatures will be sagging into the low single digits overnight tonight. Weak ridging at both the surface and aloft moves into the state tonight, which will weaken pressure gradients and try to get rid of some of the lingering cloudiness. An upper trough moving out of the Rockies tonight will turn into a weakly closed upper low that drifts our direction and lingers through at least midweek.
1140 PM CDT Sun May 18 2025 Updated aviation portion for 06Z TAF issuance - Cold tonight with a 60-100% chance of temperatures at or below freezing across northern Wisconsin.
327 AM EDT Mon May 19 2025 Weak high pressure gives way to an approaching warm front as we head into Tuesday.
Cooler weather continues through Monday, with strong west through northwest winds. Much warmer and drier conditions return by Tuesday and for the rest of the week. The axis of a weakening upper level trough sits over the Arizona/New Mexico border with this evening. Cool and somewhat unstable air trails the trough, with weak cyclonic flow in the mid- levels. There is some reinforcing cold air aloft (associated with a secondary trough) currently moving through Utah. However, the mid-level flow will be turning anticyclonic as ridging builds into the west and the longer-wave trough slides east. The secondary trough will enhance winds once again Monday, while the surface dries out from the west.
Lingering convection is expected to be cleared out by Monday morning as drier air advects into the region and high pressure ridging extends over the forecast area from out of the southeast. High temperatures for this period will be in the lower to mid 90s with overnight low temperatures dropping down into the mid to upper 60s and lower 70s. Showers and storms are anticipated for the beginning of this period, developing ahead of an advancing cold front moving into the region from out of the northwest.
1052 PM MDT Sun May 18 2025 KEY MESSAGES: - Low pressure system will continue rain opportunities through Tuesday.
Ridging builds in through the afternoon today, which should suppress any afternoon thunderstorm activity for most of Central AL. This low will have a trailing frontal boundary stretched through the MS Valley through Tuesday afternoon.
316 AM EDT Mon May 19 2025 Canadian high pressure over the region will result in cool, dry weather through Tuesday.
Scattered showers continue across the state this morning with precipitation mainly focused east of the Divide as the upper level low pulls out to the east. As the low gradually tracks to the east its slow movement will allow for showery activity to continue through much of Monday.
1259 AM EDT Mon May 19 2025 Low pressure will slowly exit across the Maritimes tonight into Tuesday.
1106 PM EDT Sun May 18 2025 Low pressure will slowly exit across the Maritimes tonight into Tuesday.
After the dryline and the axis of the upper-level trough move through, winds will shift out of the west and increase. Stronger winds in the lower levels should mix down to the surface and result in gusts over 35 MPH at times this afternoon. Overnight, a cold front will approach west central Texas and move through the region by sunrise Tuesday.
Deep layer ridge will continue to remain in play across the region over the next several days.
1234 AM MDT Mon May 19 2025 - Cooler and windy with more showers/storms Monday and possibly Tuesday, but a much lower severe threat. - Winter weather for the high country through Monday, with a Winter Weather Advisory in effect for elevations above 10,000 feet. Additionally, a Denver Cyclone has helped initiate storms over Weld and Larimer Counties, where ping pong sized hail and 60 mph winds are currently being produced. Warmer and drier conditions are still on track from Tuesday onward, with portions of the plains seeing highs in the 80s by the end of the week.
134 AM EDT Mon May 19 2025 Weak high pressure gives way to an approaching warm front as we head into Tuesday.
Ridging will remain over the area through the middle part of the week.
(Today through Tuesday) The influence of the subtropical ridge subsides into Tuesday, with a cold front approaching South Texas. Expect at least two more mid summer-like days across Deep South Texas today and tomorrow, with low pressure in the Plains enhancing the pressure gradient and maintaining a southeasterly breeze.
The highest threat will be in southeast Nebraska into southwest Iowa from 4 PM through midnight.
- Cooler temperatures mid to late week with drier conditions. An upper trough is centered across the Rockies this morning with a lead impulse lifting across the northern plains. Later today, the upper trough out west will eject into the central and southern plains accompanied by a strengthening 500mb speed max rounding the base of the trough. The combination of this low level jet and upper level ascent should support continued maintenance of this activity as its moves across Arkansas and Missouri. As much as 1-3 inches of QPF may fall during the next 12-48 hours with the higher amounts concentrated across southeast Missouri and into portions of southern Illinois. Aloft we should remain in cyclonic flow on the southwestern periphery of a trough.
The bigger action comes in Monday night into Tuesday, as the primary long wave trof ejects. After some lingering mid week pops until the trof completely clears and high pressure takes over again, we see some cooler week ending temps in the 60s and 70s.