Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
An upper level ridge over the plains will gradually shift eastward through Friday. Meanwhile, a weak upper level trough will advance eastward across the high plains. The mid to high level flow will likely be just strong enough to promote storm organization so that any storms forming on the high plains will likely organize into a line or larger storm cluster and move across western and central Kansas Friday night. The Grand Ensemble indicates the highest chance (30-60%) of.
A weak trough will move inland on Friday followed by zonal flow through the weekend with mostly dry weather and average temperatures. High pressure will build into the region, promoting warmer conditions across western Washington.
Ridging builds in this weekend with hot temperatures and increasing moisture.
623 AM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025 (Tonight through Friday night) High pressure across the Gulf continues to build through the end of the week, with drier air gradually cutting off rain chances before most Independence Day celebrations.
Showers look to be fairly progressive again with the highest coverage this afternoon, before diminishing overnight.
An upper ridge will shift east over central Nebraska today. Expect a very summer-like, hot and dry day with highs topping out in the low to mid-90s. Friday, the ridge continues to shift east, over eastern Nebraska and western Iowa in the morning.
Largely quiet weather is expected through the day as a weak and mainly dry backdoor cold front slowly sinks south toward our northern border, arriving early this evening. Central guidance has trended slightly cooler, converging toward a more realistic solution. Despite strong evapotranspiration, central guidance afternoon mixed dew points likely remain a couple degrees too high, but this will not significantly affect messaging with heat indices remaining under criteria despite slightly warmer/wetter guidance.
626 AM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025 - Dry and warm conditions in the low 90s today.
Water vapor and streamline analyses highlight a broad longwave trough extending south into Florida. Subtropical ridging persists over Mexico and the western Gulf of America, and also across the Central Atlantic. IR/VIS satellite imagery in conjunction with 925-700 mb model depictions reveal moderate cyclonic curvature across the southeastern Gulf, low-level ridging building west across the Great Bahama Bank, and a broad col-region over the western half of the Straits and western Cuba. Broad low-level ridging will continue to rebuild over the North Atlantic. This will initially support light to gentle southeast to south breezes across Florida Keys coastal waters and gradually clock around to the southwest and west as trough of low pressure approaches the region from the north.
Shower coverage decreases by late afternoon, though some showers may continue over northwestern Utah through the overnight hours as a reinforcing trough begins to dig into the Great Basin. This aforementioned trough is expected to bring increasing southwesterly flow and much drier conditions across the region on Friday, resulting in areas of enhanced to critical fire weather conditions across western and far southern Utah (see Fire Weather section below). Increased instability associated with this trough brings the potential for afternoon showers and thunderstorms on Friday afternoon, mainly across northwestern Utah, though coverage may extend into central Utah.
619 AM EDT Thu Jul 3 2025 A cold front will approach from the west this afternoon with more showers and thunderstorms, a few of which could be strong to severe.
553 AM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025 (Today) High pressure overhead will result in another warm, but dry day across the Tennessee Valley. Despite warm temperatures, it will be a rather comfortable day for early July as dewpoints stay in the low to mid 60s. With the lower dewpoint, heat index values stay close to the sfc temperatures and heat risk low.
Temperatures will be in the low to mid 90s by the afternoon.
136 PM EDT Thu Jul 3 2025 High pressure will build across the region today with dry weather expected for the upcoming Holiday weekend. Otherwise expecting dry conditions through tonight and tomorrow as high pressure continues to build overhead. Temperatures will continue to be on the warmer side with regional highs in the 80s, except at higher elevations.
1218 PM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025 (Rest of Today and Tonight) High pressure in place will provide an abundance of sunshine today and warm temperatures. Tonight, high pressure continues to dominate the forecast leaving mostly clear skies in place overnight.
An upper level ridge axis is located over the Northern Plains. Breezy winds may keep temperatures feel a few degrees cooler. The shear is on the lower end which would support cluster development off of outflow boundaries. The aforementioned upper level wave and convective temperature could play a roll in storm initiation this afternoon with the low level jet supporting storms later tonight. The wind threat will be the highest overnight. The upper level ridge axis is forecast to move across eastern North Dakota and eastern Minnesota Friday.
A series of short wave troughs aloft will move over the area today and Friday increasing mixing and enhancing moisture in the area. Could see isolated thunderstorms over the ridges. Given the location of the low, the showers will clip the Cascades after midnight tonight into Friday morning.
Cumulus should start forming over the lowlands as well. Largely quiet weather is expected through the day as a weak and mainly dry backdoor cold front slowly sinks south toward our northern border, arriving early this evening. Central guidance has trended slightly cooler, converging toward a more realistic solution. Despite strong evapotranspiration, central guidance afternoon mixed dew points likely remain a couple degrees too high, but this will not significantly affect messaging with heat indices remaining under criteria despite slightly warmer/wetter guidance.
Cooler and drier weather will move in for Independence Day, with pleasant conditions expected.
- Isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible this weekend, with temperatures trending warmer. Showers look to be fairly progressive again with the highest coverage this afternoon, before diminishing overnight. (Friday night through next Thursday) Rain chances will decrease for our area this weekend, as an upper level high develops over New Mexico. With less cloud cover, afternoon high temperatures will be warmer than what our area is currently seeing, but still below normal.
2) A cold front tonight will begin to cool the area off.
High pressure in place will keep conditions dry, and winds light and variable. Temperatures this evening for any outdoor holiday events will be in the lower 80s to upper 70s, otherwise lows will reach the upper 60s to lower 70s overnight.
The higher PWAT's, mainly easter of I-95, will serve as the focus for convection this afternoon and evening.
- Isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible this weekend, with temperatures trending warmer. (Friday night through next Thursday) Rain chances will decrease for our area this weekend, as an upper level high develops over New Mexico. With less cloud cover, afternoon high temperatures will be warmer than what our area is currently seeing, but still below normal.
Updated at 1125 AM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025 - Overall quiet weather for the end of the week into the weekend, with warmer temperatures. - Afternoon heat indices could reach the low 100s during the holiday weekend. Not much going on with high pressure overhead. (Friday Night through next Thursday) As the ridge weakens into the weekend, moisture will return with southerly flow into the mid-south.
(Tonight through Friday night) Throughout the short term, mid-level ridging gradually builds across central and northern Mexico, beginning to expand into the Desert Southwest, with ridging aloft resuming over deep south Texas and the Rio Grande overnight Friday. As mid-level ridging increases subsidence aloft, this activity is expected to cease tonight, remaining dry throughout the remainder of Friday. Near average overnight lows and daytime highs are expected with temperatures tonight, and Friday night, falling to 70s inland to near 80 degrees along the Gulf coast and rising into the low to mid 90s Friday afternoon.
Upper level ridge axis sits over the Northern Plains with a weak upper level disturbance cresting the ridge over MT/ND. The upper ridge will begin to shift east today with a low level thermal ridge developing across the Northern Plains. Gusty southerly winds will continue across the western SD plains this afternoon before shifting to the northwest tonight as a cold front moves through the area.
1256 PM EDT Thu Jul 3 2025 A trough will drop south into the area bringing a chance of unsettled weather today. Starting Friday, the region will be under the influence of high pressure through the next few days.
(Through Friday) A cold front is bisecting the area this afternoon with precipitable water values (PWATs) below 1.
220 PM EDT Thu Jul 3 2025 An upper level disturbance and cold front will bring scattered showers and thunderstorms through early this evening, some of which could be severe especially south of Interstate 90.
- Remaining mild throughout with highs around the low 90s. Enhancement of the SW to NE pressure gradient throughout the atmospheric column along with the gradual deepening of a lee cyclone immediately E of the Rockies. With daytime mixing well up to 5-10 kft along with expected midday to afternoon scattered cumulus, we should be a degree or two cooler than yesterdays highs, forecast today around the low 90s. Friday looks to be the best chance with a weak cold front sweeping through the region. But it is some question of the environment remaining capped into late and storms developing further E, more so into evening as models indicate that with the low-level jet increasing and impinging on the sweeping cold front that we see MCS development across the central plains.
Current water vapor imagery and RAP upper air analysis depicts an upper level low over Florida with a ridge to the east and west. The cloud cover is keeping temperatures on the cooler side with most locations currently in the low 80s early this afternoon. With the high PW values, any storms that do develop will be able to produce heavy rainfall rates that may lead to localized flooding generally in areas of poor drainage. High temperatures will be on the cooler side in the mid to upper 80s.
1226 PM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025 (Tonight through Friday night) High pressure across the Gulf continues to build through the end of the week, with drier air gradually cutting off rain chances before most Independence Day celebrations.
Three relic outflows are spilling southward towards the Lower Keys, while nearly stationary boundaries sit just to the south of EYW. Water vapor and streamline analyses highlight a broad longwave trough extending south into Florida. Subtropical ridging persists over Mexico and the western Gulf of America, and also across the Central Atlantic. IR/VIS satellite imagery in conjunction with 925-700 mb model depictions reveal moderate cyclonic curvature across the southeastern Gulf, low-level ridging building west across the Great Bahama Bank, and a broad col-region over the western half of the Straits and western Cuba.
(Rest of Today and Tonight) High pressure in place will provide an abundance of sunshine today and warm temperatures. Tonight, high pressure continues to dominate the forecast leaving mostly clear skies in place overnight.
- The Fourth of July holiday will be hot and humid with temperatures in the low to mid 90s and heat indices between 95 and 100. Temperatures continue their rise this afternoon as the upper ridge builds to the west of our area. Clear skies with morning temperatures in the low 70s start this weekend.
158 PM EDT Thu Jul 3 2025 A cold front and trough moving through from the north will bring scattered showers and thunderstorms to the region at times through this afternoon. An area of high pressure will then bring dry and comfortable weather tonight through Independence Day. These will occur as a cold front tracks southeast across the region which will then be followed by a trough. High temperatures today will be in the low 70s over the higher terrain to near 80 for the lower elevations. This will result in mainly clear skies tonight with lows in the low to upper 50s.
136 PM EDT Thu Jul 3 2025 A trough will drop south into the area bringing a chance of unsettled weather today. Starting Friday, the region will be under the influence of high pressure through the next few days.
212 PM EDT Thu Jul 3 2025 High pressure over the eastern part of the nation gives our region dry weather into the Independence Day holiday weekend.
1235 PM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025 - Dry and warm conditions in the low 90s today.
228 PM EDT Thu Jul 3 2025 - Hot and humid this holiday weekend with highs mainly in the lower 90s - Heat indices mid 90s to near 100 degrees this weekend.
1220 PM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025 Updated at 1217 PM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025 - Overall quiet weather for the end of the week into the weekend, with warmer temperatures. - Afternoon heat indices could reach the low 100s during the holiday weekend. Not much going on with high pressure overhead. (Friday Night through next Thursday) As the ridge weakens into the weekend, moisture will return with southerly flow into the mid-south.
933 PM EDT Thu Jul 3 2025 - Hot and humid this holiday weekend with highs mainly in the lower 90s - Heat indices mid 90s to near 100 degrees this weekend.
726 PM EDT Thu Jul 3 2025 - Hot and humid this holiday weekend with highs mainly in the lower 90s - Heat indices mid 90s to near 100 degrees this weekend.
850 PM EDT Thu Jul 3 2025 A cold front passes through the area this evening. High pressure builds in behind the front tonight through Friday night.
718 PM EDT Thu Jul 3 2025 High pressure over the eastern part of the nation gives our region dry weather into the Independence Day holiday weekend.
Onshore flow continues as a series of short wave, upper level troughs move over the area tonight through Friday. Could see isolated thunderstorms over the ridges through the same time period. The only differences look to be that daytime highs will be a few degrees cooler and more widespread, marine stratus across the region.
A dry slot works in from the southwest behind the departing wave, and that will try and mix down to the lower levels during the day.
740 PM EDT Thu Jul 3 2025 (Through Friday) A cold front is bisecting the area this afternoon with precipitable water values (PWATs) below 1.
619 PM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025 Updated at 618 PM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025 - Overall quiet weather for the end of the week into the weekend, with warmer temperatures. - Afternoon heat indices could reach the low 100s during the holiday weekend. Not much going on with high pressure overhead. (Friday Night through next Thursday) As the ridge weakens into the weekend, moisture will return with southerly flow into the mid-south.
623 PM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025 (Tonight through Friday night) Throughout the short term, mid-level ridging gradually builds across central and northern Mexico, beginning to expand into the Desert Southwest, with ridging aloft resuming over deep south Texas and the Rio Grande overnight Friday. As mid-level ridging increases subsidence aloft, this activity is expected to cease tonight, remaining dry throughout the remainder of Friday. Near average overnight lows and daytime highs are expected with temperatures tonight, and Friday night, falling to 70s inland to near 80 degrees along the Gulf coast and rising into the low to mid 90s Friday afternoon.
1007 PM EDT Thu Jul 3 2025 High pressure will build across the region with dry weather expected for the upcoming Holiday weekend. We should be cloud-free overnight under high pressure. Otherwise expecting dry conditions through tonight and tomorrow as high pressure continues to build overhead. Temperatures will continue to be on the warmer side with regional highs in the 80s, except at higher elevations.
730 PM EDT Thu Jul 3 2025 A trough will drop south into the area bringing a chance of unsettled weather today. Starting Friday, the region will be under the influence of high pressure through the next few days.
Persistent troughing over the eastern United States has resulted in the formation of a weak low centered over northern Florida. This has helped to keep an Atlantic ridge displaced eastward of our area and resulting in light and varying breezes across the Keys. The Keys are just within the lower level cyclonic flow around the developing low. In addition, weak confluence has moved in through the lower levels. Deep layered moisture and lower level troughing will remain across our area. Expect overnight lows broadly in the lower 80s with dew points in the mid 70s. The combination of a weak low centered over northern Florida and the Atlantic ridge off to the east will result in light breezes across Keys waters overnight.
Activity will decrease but not end in our CWA through the night then ramp up early Friday morning as a short wave trough approaches from the southwest. This pcpn is associated with the approaching short wave trough. After brief ridging and relative clearing Friday afternoon a second trough is expected Friday night. Due to the forward speed of the first trough, rains may not last long but the intensity looks sufficient for downpours up to.
732 PM EDT Thu Jul 3 2025 Isolated showers and thunderstorms will taper off early this evening in the wake of a cold frontal passage.
- Hot and humid conditions are expected Friday (July 4) and Saturday, with highs in the low 90s and heat indices of 95 to 100 degrees.
102 AM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025 (Tonight through Saturday night) High pressure across the Gulf continues to build into the weekend, with drier air keeping most Independence Day celebrations rain- free.
Drier conditions are forecast by Saturday as the low exits to the east and a drier zonal flow moves overhead.
Current water vapor imagery shows 500hpa ridge firmly entrenched across the middle of the CONUS with wave topping the ridge in ND. Ill defined waves are moving to the northeast in the sw flow on the backside of the 500hpa ridge. At the surface, weak low pressure is located in southeast MT with an E-W oriented boundary along with ND/SD border with a trailing trough to the south just to the west of Campbell Co, WY. The 500hpa ridge axis if forecast to shift east of the CWA this evening and overnight, putting the CWA into a SW flow regime aloft. As 500hpa ridge conts to flatten with zonal, westerly flow developing over the region, periodic disturbances will move quickly through bringing occasional thunderstorm chances to the region.
Discussion: Subtle northwest flow aloft will relent today as upper ridging strengthens over the lower and mid Mississippi valley and expands eastward. A weak impulse in the waning NW flow aloft will be located over far western NC this afternoon and may provide enough weakness in the strengthening ridge to allow for a shower or two to develop.
Southeast Texas (and basically the entire southern Plains) remain largely under the influence of a persistent upper-level ridge, which typically promotes warm and relatively dry conditions. Highs will generally be in the low to mid 90s.
Abundant cloud cover will keep temperatures on the cool side (highs in the low to mid 80s), but humidity will remain high with dewpoints in the 70s.
249 AM EDT Fri Jul 4 2025 A trough will drop south into the area bringing a chance of unsettled weather today. Starting Friday, the region will be under the influence of high pressure through the next few days.
A small low pressure system will be moving through the Northern Rockies today into Saturday. As the low moves off to the east on Saturday, wrap around precipitation will affect areas along the Continental Divide especially around Glacier National Park. Temperatures for Friday and Saturday will be significantly cooler as afternoon readings appear to be around 5 degrees below seasonal averages.
A dry slot works in from the southwest behind the departing wave, and that will try and mix down to the lower levels during the day. A center of high pressure to our south will set up southwesterly flow and subsidence.
For the Tue-Thu time frame, there is good model agreement in strong upper ridging building across the Desert Southwest into the Southern Rockies, with north/northwest flow in place across the Plains. Additionally, increasing deep moisture advection in concert with a mid to upper level trough approaching from the west should support increasing chances for spotty hit-or-miss showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms by Friday afternoon, especially west of the Flint Hills.
Even so, it will definitely feel humid, with dewpoint temperatures in the low- to mid- 70's. Temperatures on Saturday will be several degrees warmer than recent days, with high temperatures peaking in the upper 80's to low 90's.
High pressure will continue to enforce a relatively drier airmass through Friday although temps will be on the rise as H85 heights begin to gradually increase. Highs will reach the low to mid 90s and heat indices could meet or exceed 100 degrees in some locations late in the afternoon.
- Isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible this weekend, with temperatures trending warmer.
445 AM EDT Fri Jul 4 2025 High pressure builds in Friday then centers over the area Friday night.
Rest of Today: The main story for the Fourth of July will be hot and humid conditions as a mid to upper level ridge remains anchored over the region and low-level flow continues out of the south. However, did not include in the forecast due to the low potential and low confidence. This will keep eastern Iowa and northwest Illinois in the warm and humid air mass as a weak cold front approaches from the west late in the day.
Increasing deep moisture advection from the south in concert with an approaching mid-upper trough should support spotty hit-or-miss showers/thunderstorms by this afternoon mainly along/west of the Flint Hills. However, after about 10pm, storm coverage/chances should increase some from the northwest especially over central KS, immediately ahead of the approaching mid-upper trough. Chances for spotty hit-or-miss showers/storms should be highest mainly along/east of the KS Turnpike in vicinity of the progressing mid-level trough.
(Tonight through Saturday night) High pressure across the Gulf continues to build into the weekend, with drier air keeping most Independence Day celebrations rain- free.
131 AM EDT Fri Jul 4 2025 - Isolated shower/storm possible on Independence Day; otherwise, turning warmer and more humid through Saturday.
- The upper ridge will begin to break down. This cloud cover is helping to slightly mitigate surface heating, with daytime highs expected to peak in the lower to mid 90s. Heading into Friday and the early portion of the weekend, the upper ridge will continue to gradually weaken. Increased cloud cover may limit some locations to the upper 80s, but most areas will still top out in the lower to mid 90s.
253 AM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025 Overall, dry and calm conditions are expected to prevail under upper level ridging.
As we head into the afternoon, upper-level ridging will sneak in from the south with some subsidence along with it. Consequently, expecting some clearing in our skies which coupled with dewpoints in the lower 70s will allow heat indices to reach into 90s to near 100 degrees for the afternoon hours.
144 AM EDT Fri Jul 4 2025 High pressure builds in Friday then centers over the area Friday night.
1225 AM EDT Fri Jul 4 2025 High pressure will build over the region through Saturday.