Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
An upper level ridge of high pressure will continue to build over our forecast area through Tuesday.
652 AM EDT Mon Aug 12 2024 Upper level low pressure will lead to rain showers and isolated thunderstorms through this afternoon. Broad upper level low pressure over southeast Canada will weaken into an elongated trough and push east in New England today.
Building high pressure with cooler, drier air could lead to rain- free weather mid week before it shifts offshore for the weekend. Fog likely to return tonight as the front sags towards the coast with light winds and a moist boundary layer, and low temps in the low/mid 70s.
This will be followed by dry and seasonal weather through the week as a trough to the north brings in cooler and drier air. The main story this week will be the influence from a lingering trough over Northern California. As the trough gains a bit more momentum today, drier southwest flow aloft will enter the region, pushing monsoonal air further east. PWAT ensemble members significantly lower by Tuesday through the work week as the trough to the north brings in dry southwest flow off the Pacific.
609 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 Warmer temperatures and higher humidity will return to the Midsouth over the next several days.
Water vapor imagery highlights a TUTT cell to the northeast of the Greater Antilles, westerlies deep into the eastern United States, and mean layer ridging over the southern Plains. The low-level ridge extends west across south-central Florida and supports gentle to moderate east southeasterlies across the Keys this morning. From synopsis, an Atlantic ridge axis planted north of the Keys coastal waters will promote gentle to moderate easterly breezes through the early part of this week.
644 AM EDT Mon Aug 12 2024 High pressure will cover the Northeast and Mid Atlantic states through Tuesday morning. The next chance of showers and thunderstorms arrives toward the middle of the week as a low pressure system approaches from the Ohio Valley. High pressure centered over the Ohio Valley continues to supply less humidity and near to slight below normal temperatures to the region. Mid 80s for the lower elevations.
Model consensus is on the lower end with some of the latest runs showing the majority of thunderstorms remaining just to the south of our area, whereas others have some isolated activity making it into Chase, Hayes, and Perkins county. Drier and more quiet weather returns for the weekend as upper level ridging begins to build across the central US. A few more breaks in the clouds combined with weak warm air advection will allow for high temperatures to return to the low to mid 80s with some locations hitting the upper 80s through the weekend which is near normal (normal in the upper 80s).
Based on the incoming trough, confidence is growing for a stretch of near-normal temperatures for much of this week into the weekend. This next period of a week or so will feature troughiness over western North America and the far eastern Pacific Ocean.
538 AM MDT Mon Aug 12 2024 - Warmer temps this week with daily chances for storms - Best chance for severe weather and heavy rain will be Tuesday afternoon and evening Upper-level analysis shows weak ridging over the central Rockies, and satellite depicts low clouds covering much of NE and SD.
751 AM EDT Mon Aug 12 2024 (Today through Tuesday) Conditions across South Florida will remain warm and muggy through the short term as the Bermuda high and ridging aloft build and extend over the region. The setup remains pretty similar on Tuesday as the high continues to expand over the region and the shallow Saharan dust plume lingers over the area. With limited cloud coverage forecast for each morning period, temperatures will rise to the low to mid 90s across much of the region each afternoon.
Morning lows remain in the 50s to low 60s in the valleys, and up to the low 70s in the thermal belts.
559 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 (Today through Tuesday) The subtropical ridge relents a little as an inverted trough moves onshore the Texas Coast today to the Rio Grande on Tuesday. The main impact of the trough will be to enhance the seabreeze.
7 C/km in the lowest 3km) and 500mb temps are hovering around -5C. Overall, conditions suggest pretty typical summertime convection, with the highest POPs across the interior this afternoon and evening. Ridge of high pressure gradually moves to our south keeping weak southwesterly flow with winds around 5 to 10 knots each day.
1001 AM EDT Mon Aug 12 2024 An upper level trough will move into northern Maine this morning and will slowly move east.
Meanwhile, upper level ridge of high pressure remains the Peninsula today keeping west to southwest flow in place. Current guidance keeps the highest chances across central and northern portions of the CWA. By Tuesday, the ridge weakens allowing flow to become very light while still westerly. Weak flow remains into mid week and during the second half an upper level trough sliding into the Northeast may push a weak boundary across FL.
Noticing a very slight lowering in H5 heights representative of a slow trend in weakness setting in/ridge strength weakening (retrograding west). Not to get too cute, but did dip highs down ever so slightly towards the 50th percentile as recent deterministic warmer bias may be a little too warm. KLG (Today through Tuesday) High pressure moves east to be positioned more directly over the top of us. Because the high is directly over us, winds are even lighter than the past couple days. The high pressure will continue to force lower rain chances, but there are enough temperature differentials to develop some sea/lake breeze boundaries that may generate enough lift to kick off some convection.
Today will likely be the warmest day, with afternoon temperatures just a few degrees cooler the rest of the week.
Although temperatures will be a few degrees warmer than yesterday's, we'll still be slightly below seasonal normals, and afternoon dew points will only reach the upper 50s to low 60s most places.
With easterly upslope winds today, temperatures were trended downward slightly but with dewpoint temperatures expected to rise into the low to mid 70s, heat indices may climb above the century mark, especially over southern KS. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop across the High Plains of eastern Colorado late this afternoon and evening. The mid/upper ridge across the Southern Plains is progged to amplify late Tue into Wed. A frontal passage on Thu will also usher in more seasonable air with highs in the low to mid 90s anticipated. The mid/upper ridge is progged to amplify once again across the central CONUS bringing rising heights/increasing thickness and rising temperatures for late in the week and into the weekend.
Moisture increases from the west through the day but at the same time ridging builds in from the south.
Storms look to initially develop over the higher terrain later this morning and early this afternoon, then gradually pushing northward off the terrain into the lower elevations through the early evening hours. Latest hi-res and U of A WRF guidance do show a complex of storms moving northward from the Lower Deserts later this evening, which may continue showers and storms into the overnight across central AZ.
626 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 (Today through Tuesday) High pressure moves east to be positioned more directly over the top of us. Because the high is directly over us, winds are even lighter than the past couple days. The high pressure will continue to force lower rain chances, but there are enough temperature differentials to develop some sea/lake breeze boundaries that may generate enough lift to kick off some convection.
623 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 (Today through Tuesday) Key Messages: - Heat Advisory Noon to 5 PM, Heat Index values up to 114 degrees - Low Chance of Showers and Thunderstorms Water Vapor satellite loops show two Tropical Upper Troposphere Troughs or TUTT lows, one spinning over the Western Gulf and the other over the Big Bend of West Texas. Satellite derived Total Precipitable water values are approaching 2 inches across the Lower RGV and the Western Gulf. Currently, radar is picking up isolated echoes over the coastal waters with some working their way into the Lower RGV from Boca Chica and SPI beaches to Harlingen to Port Mansfield and Raymondville.
A mid to upper level inverted trough will drift westward into the area through the short-term period riding on the southern periphery of the high as this one shifts eastward.
WV imagery this morning shows the upper ridge extending more or less across the southern CONUS, and centered over Texas. The ridge will shift eastward a bit today, but thicknesses and temperatures remain about the same, w/highs within a degree or so where they were yesterday. Tuesday, the ridge continues developing east to the ArklaTex, resulting in decreasing thicknesses locally, which will shave a degree or two off today's highs.
The mid-upper level ridge will be in control of the pattern keeping much of the area precipitation free for the next 7 days.
606 AM EDT Mon Aug 12 2024 An upper level trough will move into northern Maine Monday morning and will slowly move east.
934 AM EDT Mon Aug 12 2024 High pressure will cover the Northeast and Mid Atlantic states through Tuesday morning. The next chance of showers and thunderstorms arrives toward the middle of the week as a low pressure system approaches from the Ohio Valley. In general, expecting high pressure to be the dominant weather feature for our CWA. The High is centered over the Ohio Valley and will provide for supply of less humidity and near to slight below normal temperatures to the region. Mid 80s for the lower elevations.
High pressure remains at the surface through the short-term, but a mid-level disturbance within an active northwesterly jet stream will bring an increase in clouds this evening into the overnight. Despite a relatively stable low-level environment and minimal low- level moisture advection in the lower levels tonight as the disturbance crosses the area, models depict a moist mid-level environment that will likely produce a few showers or light rain aloft, especially north of the Mountain Parkway. At the surface, high pressure will continue to remain in place keeping the area dry.
A weak low pressure system over the Pacific Northwest and British Columbia will keep the Northern Rockies under southwesterly upper level flow.
High pressure will remain in control with near normal temperatures and very little chance of widespread rain. Otherwise the bulk of the showers remains well to our west with the trough axis over New York. Upper trof remains overhead today however. As skies gradually clear the typical low spots will see radiational cooling bring readings down into the low 50s across the north. Return flow will allow for warmer temps Tue. Details: Upper troughing remains as surface ridging builds into the eastern CONUS.
Warmer temperatures and higher humidity will return to the Midsouth over the next several days.
The higher chances for rain will be near and south of I-10.
1213 PM EDT Mon Aug 12 2024 An upper level trof will cross the region today.
(This evening through Tuesday) Hot and dry conditions will continue across West Central Texas through the next 24 hours as an upper level ridge continues to dominate our weather.
The setup remains pretty similar on Tuesday as the high continues to expand over the region and the shallow Saharan dust plume lingers over the area. With limited cloud coverage expected, temperatures will rise to the low to mid 90s across much of the region both this afternoon and Tuesday afternoon.
230 PM MDT Mon Aug 12 2024 - Warmer temps this week with daily chances for storms.
Temperatures heated up pretty quickly during the morning, but as cumulus and storms developed around midday, that pretty much arrested any heating in most areas with temperatures generally in the lower and middle 90s. On Tuesday, ridging tries to build over the area a bit, but forecast soundings also show moisture levels increasing a bit, closer to 2 inches.
Temperatures increase into the low to mid 70s for Tuesday.
This will be followed by dry and seasonal weather through the week as a trough to the north brings in cooler and drier air. An upper level trough of low pressure off the Pacific Northwest coast will complete its breakdown of our hot ridge of the weekend. The trough will boost onshore winds during the afternoons and nights today through Tuesday night.
1245 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 (Today through Tuesday) The subtropical ridge relents a little as an inverted trough moves onshore the Texas Coast today to the Rio Grande on Tuesday. The main impact of the trough will be to enhance the seabreeze.
(This evening through Tuesday Night) Upper level ridging centered over west Texas will continue to drift east in the coming days, driving temperatures up further and locking in place the hot and mostly dry pattern throughout most of this forecast period. Dew points spiking back into the low to mid 70s will make it feel anywhere from 5 to 10 degrees warmer, hence the issuance of a Heat Advisory which will be in effect from 11 AM to 8 PM Tuesday, with further extensions likely and upgrades possible. A sliver of our southernmost zones in deep east Texas may see some very isolated storms tomorrow afternoon, but these chances are slight to begin with, and may be inhibited altogether by the effects of the ridging.
While midlevel ridging remains the dominant feature over the southern US, a weak inverted trough will rotate across the the southern periphery and allow tropical moisture to stream into the area. Tuesday we will continue to see elevated tropical moisture in the area, though troughing will be a bit weaker.
1210 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 (Today through Tuesday) Key Messages: - Heat Advisory Noon to 5 PM, Heat Index values up to 114 degrees - Low Chance of Showers and Thunderstorms Water Vapor satellite loops show two Tropical Upper Troposphere Troughs or TUTT lows, one spinning over the Western Gulf and the other over the Big Bend of West Texas. Satellite derived Total Precipitable water values are approaching 2 inches across the Lower RGV and the Western Gulf. Currently, radar is picking up isolated echoes over the coastal waters with some working their way into the Lower RGV from Boca Chica and SPI beaches to Harlingen to Port Mansfield and Raymondville.
Tuesday looks like a dry day as the center of the upper high moves a little closer to our area.
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: An upper ridge overhead will allow for a hot day across the area Tuesday before an upper trough from western Canada moves in and brings an increased chance of thunderstorms late in the day.
Based on the incoming trough, confidence is growing for a stretch of near-normal temperatures for much of this week into the weekend. The upper ridge that had persisted over the past week bringing well above normal temperatures to the region has finally given way and shifted east over the Southern Plains. An upper trough is situated over the Pacific Northwest with a short wave just off the northern California coast that will shift inland later this evening. Probabilistic guidance is giving Mojave around a 50 percent chance of seeing gusts greater than 45 mph while the area around the Highway 178 & 14 intersection has nearly a 100 percent chance for gusts in excess of 45 mph. Temperatures are trending down around 3 to 5 degrees from this time yesterday as the cooler air mass begins to move in.
Then drier air moves into the region allowing for a few slightly cooler days with only isolated showers and thunderstorms. Lows are expected to be in the lower to mid 70s tonight. Key Message(s): - Damaging wind gusts possible Tuesday afternoon and evening Upper level pattern will gradually amplify through the short term with the trough axis digging slightly over the east coast. As the trough digs on Tuesday afternoon there will also be a short wave moving north of the area which will be a focus for convection Tuesday afternoon and evening.
An upper level trough of low pressure off the Pacific Northwest coast has broken down our hot ridge of the weekend. The trough will continue to clear out our area of any remaining monsoonal moisture. Additionally, the trough will boost onshore winds during the afternoons and nights today through Tuesday night.
Temperatures are on the warm side today and tomorrow with highs in the low to mid 90s. But Td's with NW flow will be in the low 60s which will make the heat much more bearable. With high pressure aloft, not much should change in the forecast over the next 48 hours.
1157 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 (Today through Tuesday) Today will be similar in some respects to yesterday for high temperatures, but mainly a degree or so warmer. We should keep the lower dew points around during the short term with NRLY low level flow remaining in place. We could see some periodic high clouds at times as the flat upper ridge across the SRN US transitions to a weak NW flow into the SE US. This will result as an upper low over Quebec digs and treks across New England through the short term.
Expanding mid-level ridging from the south will confine storm activity late tonight into Tuesday morning to these areas. Here, models have a subtle speed max topping the ridge and likely aiding in maintaining convection originating from the central High Plains. With more sunshine expected Tuesday, highs should reach the 90s most areas, though slightly cooler relatively than it could be, because of those rains. It's not going to matter though because of the high dewpoints pushing heat indices to dangerous levels.
Associated cloud cover will keep our northeast counties a few degrees cooler than the rest of the forecast area. The mid-upper level ridge will be in control of the pattern keeping much of the area precipitation free for the next 7 days.
This will keep temperatures in check, with readings generally topping out in the low 80s. High pressure remains at the surface through the short-term, but a mid-level disturbance within an active northwesterly jet stream will bring an increase in clouds this evening into the overnight. Despite a relatively stable low-level environment and minimal low- level moisture advection in the lower levels tonight as the disturbance crosses the area, models depict a moist mid-level environment that will likely produce a few showers or light rain aloft, especially north of the Mountain Parkway. The period will begin with mid-level heights building across parts of the Middle and Upper Mississippi River Valleys and trough in the east toward much of the Ohio Valley. At the surface, we will see high pressure centered across the Upper Ohio Valley and Great Lakes regions.
1137 AM MDT Mon Aug 12 2024 - Warmer temps this week with daily chances for storms - Best chance for severe weather and heavy rain will be Tuesday afternoon and evening Upper-level analysis shows weak ridging over the central Rockies, and satellite depicts low clouds covering much of NE and SD.
The rather stagnant airmass will heat up beneath the high and raise heat stress levels. Depending on how much this trough can dig through the MS Valley region, we may see significant height falls and stronger northwest flow that could support organized storms with perhaps some severe weather potential.
119 PM PDT Mon Aug 12 2024 Cooler temperatures and increasing humidity, with periods of breezy onshore winds this week. For much of interior NorCal, current temperature observations are trending approximately 3 to 8 degrees cooler than this time yesterday afternoon, valid at 130 PM PDT.
1212 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 Warmer temperatures and higher humidity will return to the Midsouth over the next several days.
The upper level pattern will continue to shift overnight as a ridge builds over the Southern Plains. This ridge will push the warm, moist sector currently over the Lower Mississippi Valley eastward. Overnight lows tonight will again settle into the mid to upper 60s, although light winds may allow for radiational cooling and sheltered valleys could see the low 60s.
135 PM EDT Mon Aug 12 2024 High pressure starts the work week dry and cool. Surface maps suggest high pressure in control for the most part tonight and Tuesday, providing dry weather. Near normal temperatures are anticipated tonight, generally in the lower 60s lowlands, ranging into the lower 50s northeast mountains. High on Tuesday should be warmer than previous days but still about normal, generally in the mid 80s lowlands, ranging into the mid 60s northeast mountains. Area will be in NW flow aloft between building ridge across midwest and trough along the east coast.
Our northwest flow pattern remains in place due to a broad trough to our northeast and ridging to our west.
207 PM MDT Mon Aug 12 2024 Satellite imagery shows a low amplitude ridge over the northern Rockies and upstream PacNW troffing.
Building high pressure with cooler, drier air should lead to rain-free week before it shifts offshore this weekend.
256 PM EDT Mon Aug 12 2024 An upper level disturbance will cross the area Tuesday resulting in clouds and isolated showers, otherwise a large area of high pressure centered over the northern Mid-Atlantic will keep the weather mainly dry. The next widespread chance for rain arrives toward the end of the week as a low pressure system approaches from the Ohio Valley. High pressure is centered to our north and is expected to maintain mainly dry conditions. The only fly in the ointment is an upper level disturbance, or short wave trough, that will pass across the area from west to east Tuesday. temperatures ranging from 55 to 60 in the mountains to the lower 60s piedmont. The large scale synoptic pattern will continue to feature a broad upper trough dominating the Mid-Atlantic, Great Lakes, and Northeastern U.
An upper level inverted trough currently across the northwest part of the Gulf of Mexico enters the middle Texas coast and then moves to the northwest over the Rio Grande through the period.
High pressure continues to be the dominant synoptic feature, with the axis centered over SWFL. The ridge axis will slide a little farther north over the next day or so, resulting in more light and variable flow across the entirety of the state.
High-resolution models are predicting additional thunderstorms this afternoon over the higher terrain of Baker County and the West Central Mountains.
Our resident upper high will continue to dominate that pattern tonight and tomorrow. The center of the upper high will remain just to our east. The good side of the upper high being slightly to our east is it should continue to help keep highs across the Rolling Plains below advisory level.
During the Tuesday and Tuesday night timeframe, upper level low pressure will be sitting across the Pacific Northwest with an upper ridge over the southern United States. Precipitable water values will decrease to about a quarter to two-thirds of an inch with the highest values forecast along a thing sliver of the Nevada-Utah border. Highs will be a few degrees cooler with readings in the 80s for the most part.
This will keep temperatures in check, with readings generally topping out in the low 80s. High pressure remains at the surface through the short-term, but a mid-level disturbance within an active northwesterly jet stream will bring an increase in clouds this evening into the overnight. Despite a relatively stable low-level environment and minimal low- level moisture advection in the lower levels tonight as the disturbance crosses the area, models depict a moist mid-level environment that will likely produce a few showers or light rain aloft, especially north of the Mountain Parkway. At the surface, high pressure will continue to remain in place keeping the area dry.
213 PM EDT Mon Aug 12 2024 - Warmer temperatures through this week. Another cool night expected, with lows dropping well into the 50s inland, perhaps upper 40s in the typical cooler locales. With basically minimal northerly flow, will see some lake breezes develop again, though as moisture is somewhat limited in the low levels, this may not be enough to generate sufficient instability to offset 500mb height rises and warm air advection aloft.