Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
(Today and tonight) Low pressure aloft will migrate from SoCal into the Desert Southwest as an expansive high pressure ridge encompasses much of the northeast Pacific. Our area will remain on the eastern periphery of the upper ridge with minimal changes to our sensible weather. Expect the top of the marine layer inversion to remain relatively steady this morning before compressing slightly as high pressure gains a bit more influence. As mentioned in the previous discussion some of the model temperature guidance seems a touch too warm when compared to observations over the past few days, so followed the previous forecast philosophy of trending slightly cooler for readings in areas which are likely to see a stronger marine influence.
258 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024 - Dry conditions continue today and into Wednesday prior to low pressure system.
The features responsible for the converging flow are a mean trough dropping over the northern Intermountain Region and a large weak closed low near the southern California Coast.
This precipitation activity was supported by an upper level low, centered over south central Kansas.
With a jet streak wrapping around the southern end of the trough, best downburst threat would be across southern WY with any isolated thunderstorms. As the trough slowly moves east on Wednesday, broad northwest flow returns in its wake. With modest moisture and trailing instability, some shower activity should develop along the higher elevations of the Absarokas/Winds/Bighorns during peak daytime heating.
1035 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024 - A slow-moving upper trough will bring waves of showers and scattered thunderstorms to the region through Tuesday afternoon.
A warm front is expected to lift north and then the occluded front will lift northeast later tonight.
Highs reach into the low to mid 90s areawide with low 100s in the Big Bend. The same dryline retreats much further to the west late Tuesday night and into Wednesday and sets up along the high terrain. Highs on Wednesday once again reach above normal into the low to mid 90s for most.
1213 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024 (This afternoon through Tuesday night) Warm, quiet, and mostly sunny accurately sums up the short term pretty well as weak ridging builds in over the next 24 hours. Despite a weak cold front that moved through this morning, temperatures have warmed up well into the 80s and low 90s this afternoon under full sunshine. High temperatures will be noticeably warmer under the building ridge, with many locations topping out in the low to mid 90s.
An upper level closed low to the north over MO early this morning will rotate ESE by this afternoon/evening. Chances for convection will increase by late this morning and mainly for this afternoon across the NERN third/half of the state near this upper low. This closed upper low will move east away from the region by late tonight and for Wed. with mainly dry conditions expected as upper level ridging moves overhead. Chances for convection return to the forecast late in the short term however as the ridging shifts east.
1154 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024 - Daytime Tuesday will be dry and much warmer, with afternoon temperatures in the lower to mid 80s. The upper low responsible for the rains overnight will move eastward and clearing skies are expected for this evening and tonight. Tuesday will be a warmer day with less cloud, with highs in the 80-85 range. Expect lower 70s for highs Wednesday along I-70, with warmer 80s in the far south. Mean upper level ridging will gradually shift from the Rockies to the plains.
A warm front situated near the international border will be focus for showers this morning. Then temperatures on Wednesday will be not quite as warm as today as a surface cold front will also cross our area. The forecast for the latter half of the work week is relatively unchanged from the previous thinking with the main features of interest being a stalling frontal boundary over the region and an upper low closing off over the eastern seaboard.
This activity tapers off late Tuesday night as the low crosses the Appalachians.
Meanwhile a low pressure system is sliding to the west of the area and will help develop showers and storms throughout the day. Meanwhile, an upper level low/disturbance will slide across the north today before exiting by Wednesday. The best chances for a stronger storm will be across the northeast with its closer proximity to the low. Most of the activity will move out of the area overnight and then redevelop in the afternoon across the northeast with another upper low swinging through.
(Today through Wednesday) An upper level trough is moving across TX this morning and the flow is becoming west-northwesterly. At the surface, high pressure is moving over the region and winds are light and variable. A cooler, drier airmass has moved over our CWA. Temperatures and dewpoints are five to 15 degrees cooler than 24 hours ago. High pressure will move across our CWA today with quiet weather expected. Temperatures will be warmer again with lows about five degrees warmer than this morning.
Best lift/diurnal forcing from heating will occur from the BH through scentral SD where the highest coverage of showers is expected. Overall, temps will be seasonal with highs generally in the 60s/70s, with warmer temps returning Thur and Fri.
The warm front will continue its retreat northward allowing for the region to remain in this hot and unsettled pattern through mid-week. As the mid-level low travels eastward, the surface cold front will move across the panhandle and enter the peninsula of Florida on Wednesday.
258 AM EDT Tue May 14 2024 A warm front will move northward along the Carolina coast this afternoon and evening as low pressure approaches from the west. Low pressure will shift to the coast tonight and Wednesday.
Meanwhile as the MCS moves through today, an upper level trough continues to move across the Mississippi valley. The cold front associated with the trough will bring another round of showers and storms to our area beginning tonight and into tomorrow. Though ridging builds back over the area by the end of the week, enough moisture will be available that, rain chances remain in the forecast. By the weekend another cold front approaches the area bringing another round of convection.
The closed upper low currently over Missouri will continue to move farther from the region today with another closed low moving onshore into southern California. Short wave ridging between these two lows will move overhead today which will act to suppress convection that attempts to develop this afternoon. As the upper low moves onshore on the southern California coast, surface cyclogenesis will develop from northeastern New Mexico into the western Texas Panhandle in response by late in the afternoon.
(Today and tonight) Sunny skies are on tap for most of the day today as a weak mid-level ridge is currently over Texas. The mid-level ridge should provide a fairly stout cap to suppress widespread convection. Forecast soundings show an inverted V in the lowest levels, so any storms will likely be high-based, which could produce gusty winds and very little rainfall. Warm southerly flow should continue overnight with low temperatures only falling to the upper 60s, which is about ten degrees warmer than last night.
- Showers and thunderstorms chances continue Wednesday as a cold front crosses the region.
Building high pressure will allow for temperatures to rebound upward Tuesday and Wednesday.
A weak upper low is approaching which will bring some cooling and additional instability the next couple days.
The air will be drier, with afternoon dew points averaging in the low/mid 60s. Wednesday looks similar but with a little more mid/upper ridging than Tuesday. Wednesday night is expected to be more humid and a tad warmer.
1238 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024 (The rest of tonight) Slow moving mid/upper level low continues to maintain its influence over the region this evening. Widely scattered showers with some embedded thunder are beginning to wane across the area as the trough axis slowly pushes into western Arkansas and the boundary layer stabilizes as the sun has set. Showers should continue to shift east this evening with the trof axis and weak to negligible surface boundary that is draped from southeast Oklahoma through northwest Arkansas.
A low pressure system will continue to move through the region today before moving out on Tuesday. In the warm sector ahead of the low this afternoon/evening, isolated to scattered showers and storms are expected, as we could see a few strong to severe thunderstorms given MUCAPE values up to 1,000-1,500 J/kg and 0-6km shear of up to 30-35 kts.
(Tuesday through Wednesday) A quiet 36-hours is expected across the region, as weak upper- level ridging moves in behind all of this heavy precipitation. However, one can expect things to get rather muggy, as highs will climb into the low-90s by Wednesday.
It will be a touch warmer today than yesterday, especially out west where winds will return to southerly as weak lee troughing returns. It should otherwise be another beautiful afternoon with abundant sunshine and highs in the low-to-mid 80s.
1127 PM MDT Mon May 13 2024 Warm temperatures with lighter winds next few days under high pressure aloft.
For tomorrow, winds shift to the southeast as low pressure and mid level wave approaches and increase with gusts around 20 to 25 mph. Some isolated showers are possible west of the James River during the mid afternoon hours, with the warm front north of the area.
The system on Wednesday is a run of the mill low pressure with potential for 0.
A weak midlatitude cyclone is slowly migrating across the central CONUS. The low slowly pushes eastward through the evening and overnight with rain coverage becoming more isolated as it departs.
Water vapor shows upper ridge extending from the Desert SW northeastward through the Central Rockies into the Northern Plains. Upstream trof extends from the Pac NW into the Northern Rockies. Northwestern CONUS trof will track eastward the next few days, with increasing chances for showers/thunderstorms into Wednesday. The main upper trof then moves through Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, with the main lift over our southern 1/2 of zones. Given the lack of Gulf moisture getting pulled into the trof, widespread heavy rains not expected, although most areas will receive some precipitation over the next few days.
349 AM EDT Tue May 14 2024 A low pressure system will slowly track across the Ohio Valley through Wednesday, bringing unsettled weather to the region.
After some warming early this afternoon, a few thunderstorms may develop, most likely east of the Highway 93 corridor along the Continental Divide.
Prominent mid-level ridging off the Pacific coastline will keep us in this pattern through the rest of the week, with near daily chances for showers and isolated thunderstorms expected.
137 AM EDT Tue May 14 2024 High pressure moves east overnight.
(Today) Mid-upper level trough axis was moving overhead early this morning with just some occasional isolated showers & patchy fog occurring in parts of far E OK & NW AR. Far NE OK & NW AR, however, will likely be held down in the upper 60s/ lower 70s by more cloud cover in closer proximity to the upper low.
155 AM EDT Tue May 14 2024 Showers associated with a passing warm front will remain along the northern fringe of the north country through most of the night. After this, a weak high pressure ridge will provide warm and mainly rain-free weather outside of a few afternoon showers. A 500 hPa trough will pass across the Ohio Valley and the mid- Appalachians Wednesday and Wednesday night. This boundary, southeast flow around the trough aloft, and northeast flow from a incoming area of high pressure, will serve as a boundary for likely PoPs through the afternoon, and into the evening hours.
A cold front will also actually move through and stall over the gulf tonight into early Wed and also remain over the gulf through Wed night.
942 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024 - Dry conditions continue today and into Wednesday prior to low pressure system.
Rain chances increase today from west to east ahead of a weak mid level trough.
(Today through Wednesday) The latest surface analysis depicts a weak cold from near Rio Grande City extending eastward to Edinburg to Harlingen then off the Lower Texas Coast. Temperatures range from the mid to upper 60s across the northern ranchlands to the lower 70s across the Rio Grande Valley with light north to northwest winds. The moist soils from very recent rainfall combined with light winds may lead to patchy fog across the area, especially across the northern ranchlands and the Lower Valley. Highs today will range from the lower 80s at the beaches, low to mid 90s across the Rio Grande Valley and the upper 90s to around 100 degrees across the Rio Grande Plains.
646 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024 (Tuesday through Wednesday) A quiet 36-hours is expected across the region, as weak upper- level ridging moves in behind all of this heavy precipitation. However, one can expect things to get rather muggy, as highs will climb into the low-90s by Wednesday.
632 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024 (Today through Wednesday) The latest surface analysis depicts a weak cold from near Rio Grande City extending eastward to Edinburg to Harlingen then off the Lower Texas Coast. Temperatures range from the mid to upper 60s across the northern ranchlands to the lower 70s across the Rio Grande Valley with light north to northwest winds. The moist soils from very recent rainfall combined with light winds may lead to patchy fog across the area, especially across the northern ranchlands and the Lower Valley. Highs today will range from the lower 80s at the beaches, low to mid 90s across the Rio Grande Valley and the upper 90s to around 100 degrees across the Rio Grande Plains.
A weak upper level low pressure system moving inland through southern California will bring a slight chance of light showers for the San Bernardino Mountains for late Wednesday.
/19/ (Tuesday through Wednesday) A quiet 36-hours is expected across the region, as weak upper- level ridging moves in behind all of this heavy precipitation. However, one can expect things to get rather muggy, as highs will climb into the low-90s by Wednesday.
627 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024 (Today through Wednesday) An upper level trough is moving across TX this morning and the flow is becoming west-northwesterly. At the surface, high pressure is moving over the region and winds are light and variable. A cooler, drier airmass has moved over our CWA. Temperatures and dewpoints are five to 15 degrees cooler than 24 hours ago. High pressure will move across our CWA today with quiet weather expected. Temperatures will be warmer again with lows about five degrees warmer than this morning.
622 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024 (Today and tonight) Sunny skies are on tap for most of the day today as a weak mid-level ridge is currently over Texas. The mid-level ridge should provide a fairly stout cap to suppress widespread convection. Forecast soundings show an inverted V in the lowest levels, so any storms will likely be high-based, which could produce gusty winds and very little rainfall. Warm southerly flow should continue overnight with low temperatures only falling to the upper 60s, which is about ten degrees warmer than last night.
625 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024 (Today) Mid-upper level trough axis was moving overhead early this morning with just some occasional isolated showers & patchy fog occurring in parts of far E OK & NW AR. Far NE OK & NW AR, however, will likely be held down in the upper 60s/ lower 70s by more cloud cover in closer proximity to the upper low.
659 AM EDT Tue May 14 2024 A low pressure system will slowly track across the Ohio Valley through Wednesday, bringing unsettled weather to the region.
551 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024 - Dry conditions continue today and into Wednesday prior to low pressure system.
Temperatures today will once again reach the low 70s under mostly clear skies with winds generally under 10mph, making for another gorgeous late Spring day to enjoy. Cloud cover will increase ahead of an approaching system looking to bring precipitation on Wednesday, with the setup including zonal upper level flow and a weak trough alongside a weak low pressure system. The warm front with the surface system will remain south of the area leaving us within the precipitation shield to the north of the front, also keeping us out of the running for any legitimate chances for severe weather.
A broad area of high pressure will continue to build across NW California through midweek, promoting calm and generally summer-like weather. This means sunny skies for the interior with hot inland valleys reaching the low 90s. Low pressure along the Central California coast will keep the strongest high pressure offshore generally inhibiting any extreme warming.
The wind advisory goes to noon and expect winds to decrease into the afternoon as the low moves away. Cold front makes passage tonight with drier air filtering in across the forecast area. Daytime highs in the lower/mid 80s today warm into the mid/upper 80s Wednesday. Overnight lows in the lower half of the 60s interior and in the lower 70s closer to the coast.
This comes as a result of the Great Lakes being sandwiched between features: northern stream troughing lifting further across Quebec tonight, and southern stream troughing working across the Gulf Coast into Wednesday. At the surface, high pressure will gradually build eastward across Hudson Bay, nosing into the Great Lakes throughout the period. While lows in the upper 30s and low 40s are anticipated for most areas, typical localized cold spots across interior areas may see temperatures dip into the low to mid 30s -- leading to the potential for patchy frost. Highs in the upper 60s and low 70s are anticipated for most, with cooler temperatures in the low to mid 60s near the lakeshores.
Breezy northwest winds will continue to develop through the afternoon in the wake of an exiting trough.
331 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024 - Areas of showers and thunderstorms tonight and Wednesday as low pressure moves through the region.
/29 (Now through Wednesday Night) An upper trof oriented near the lower/mid Mississippi River valley progresses slowly across the eastern states to just off the East Coast through Wednesday night. Lows tonight range from the lower 60s inland to near 70 at the coast.
Wednesday will trend warmer and drier with afternoon breezes.
1223 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024 (The rest of today ) Slowly departing upper low continues to wrap moisture back into western Arkansas resulting in low clouds and scattered showers this morning.
Temperatures will be warmer tonight with southeast to south winds, and overnight lows are expected to be in the lower to mid 60s. An upper low/trough will move slowly east across the northern Baja region toward far northwestern Mexico on Wednesday. Temperatures will be a little warmer Wednesday, with highs from the upper 80s to mid 90s.
/NEW/ /Through Wednesday afternoon/ Quiet and seasonably conditions will persist the rest of the day as a high pressure remains in control. Winds will slowly shift to the south-southeast this evening as the high pressure moves east. With the return of the warm southerly flow overnight, low temperatures will remain in the lower to mid 60s.
138 PM EDT Tue May 14 2024 A low pressure system will cross the Mid Atlantic through Wednesday to bring showers and scattered thunderstorms.
152 PM PDT Tue May 14 2024 Very warm temperatures are in store this week with highs in the 70s for the Sierra and 80s across warmer lower valleys.
The arrival of drier air will allow for plentiful sunshine this afternoon as skies remain mostly clear of cloud cover, and result in afternoon high temperatures ranging from the 80s along the Lower Texas beaches to around 100 degrees across the Rio Grande Plains. High temperatures will once again range from the 80s along the Lower Texas beaches to upper 90s across the Rio Grande Plains. In combination with the higher humidity, "feels like" temperatures will climb into the triple digits for portions of the Rio Grande Valley, ranging from around 100-106 degrees. This will keep low temperatures a few degrees warmer, mostly in the mid 70s to around 80 degrees region wide.
328 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024 - Thunderstorms developing over the High Plains this afternoon will move east across the forecast area by late this afternoon/this evening.
1247 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024 - Dry conditions continue today and into Wednesday prior to low pressure system.
1220 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024 (Today through Wednesday) The latest surface analysis depicts a weak cold from near Rio Grande City extending eastward to Edinburg to Harlingen then off the Lower Texas Coast. Temperatures range from the mid to upper 60s across the northern ranchlands to the lower 70s across the Rio Grande Valley with light north to northwest winds. The moist soils from very recent rainfall combined with light winds may lead to patchy fog across the area, especially across the northern ranchlands and the Lower Valley. Highs today will range from the lower 80s at the beaches, low to mid 90s across the Rio Grande Valley and the upper 90s to around 100 degrees across the Rio Grande Plains.
(This evening through Wednesday Night) A welcome reprieve from rain will continue through this short-term period as an upper-level trough slowly ejects eastward from the Mid-MS Valley. Likewise, look for wind speeds to drop off rapidly as well as high pressure builds firmly into the region. High pressure will maintain dry and increasingly warmer conditions on Wednesday with winds eventually trending back S/SW throughout the day. As light southerly flow persists on Wednesday night, overnight temperatures will run several degrees warmer compared to tonight with cloud cover also returning across our western half.
349 PM EDT Tue May 14 2024 Eastward exiting low pressure will continue to provide some shower and thunderstorm activity on Wednesday, generally southeast of I-71.
Meanwhile as the MCS moves through today, an upper level trough continues to move across the Mississippi valley. The cold front associated with the trough will bring another round of showers and storms to our area beginning tonight and into tomorrow. Though ridging builds back over the area by the end of the week, enough moisture will be available that, rain chances remain in the forecast. By the weekend another cold front approaches the area bringing another round of convection. Otherwise, a cold front will slowly push southward across the area overnight into Wednesday and this feature with scattered/numerous showers and storms developing once again so flight conditions are expected to deteriorate towards the end of the period.
(This evening through Wednesday) Calm weather persists as the low pressure system that sits near southern California continues to move inland and the ridging pattern slightly strengthens. Overnight temperatures will be similar to last night with minimum temperatures reaching in the high 40s to mid 50s.
(The rest of today ) Slowly departing upper low continues to wrap moisture back into western Arkansas resulting in low clouds and scattered showers this morning.
As high pressure off the Carolinas continues to slide offshore and a weak frontal boundary nudges southward over the Florida Peninsula, winds will slowly slacken over the next several hours.
With mostly clear skies tonight and relatively low dew points temperatures will fall into the low to mid 50s tonight.
Most guidance places the nose of a low level theta-e ridge axis over the South Plains and far southern TX Panhandle, and this in addition to convective temperatures being easily reached once again is expected to result in at least scattered storms developing during the late afternoon hours with the highest potential coverage over the far southern TX Panhandle.
Mesoanalysis depicted trough over the region with two main vorticity maximums circulating through it. A warm front develops over the central zones late in the day and moves into the E for Wed.