Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
237 PM EDT Sat Apr 6 2024 High pressure will build over the eastern United States through tonight leading to lighter wind and drier weather.
Strong / negatively tilted upper trough axis currently swinging into the central Plains with a dry line moving through western Oklahoma.
GOES satellite imagery shows mostly scattered clouds over interior NorCal this afternoon, as a quick moving ridge covers the area. As quickly as it arrived however, the ridge will be replaced by another trough. This system, like the ridge before it, will move out of the area fairly quickly, leaving calm and dry conditions behind.
Forecast models continue to show light snowfall amounts through the Cascade passes and light rain over the lowlands. Temperatures will stay on the cooler side with highs near the 50 degree mark across the lower elevations.
1254 PM CDT Sat Apr 6 2024 (Rest of Today) Mostly sunny early morning skies have allowed for temperatures to recover into the low 40s across the area. An omega block at both surface and mid levels will begin to deteriorate today leaving us with one more day under the influence of high pressure to the north. This will keep winds light and allow temperatures to rebound from the late week cool down into the low to mid 60s this afternoon.
Closed, nearly vertically-stacked upper low over western Nebraska will be responsible for helping drive our weather over the next 12 hours. Attention turns to the west as increasing upper ascent with surface convergence along a dryline/Pacific cold front will initiate convection across central into eastern Kansas during the mid to late afternoon. Recent visible satellite imagery already depicts a narrow arc of slightly agitated cumulus from the center of the closed low to just west of SLN/ICT.
The Northern Rockies persist beneath an expansive trough, fostering scattered showers, albeit with a diminishing influence of widespread forcing.
* Dry weather and warmer than normal temperatures for Eclipse Day. With temperatures warming above freezing, the frost advisory and freeze warning have been allowed to expire this morning. Skies have cleared across the lower Ohio Valley, and winds have mostly decoupled, creating a favorable radiational cooling regime. Narrow upper ridge in between two deep upper lows will build in today and tonight, maintaining the dry air in place and allowing for modest recovery in temps.
Low clouds will continue through tomorrow morning before a weak cold front moves through the area. Highs will be in the lower to middle 80s. Lows Sunday night will bottom out in the middle 50s to upper 60s with the warmer values in the Coastal Plains where moisture values will be highest.
pdf High pressure will continue to be dominant through today and tonight with dry weather and mostly clear to partly cloudy skies. High temperatures today will be in the upper 60s and lower 70s over southeast Georgia, ranging between the lower and upper 70s over northeast Florida, and in the mid to upper 60s along the coastline.
1120 AM CDT Sat Apr 6 2024 (Today and tonight) The strongest core of upper level wind flow associated with a broad upper low across western CONUS is currently spread across the AZ/NM state line, steadily heading east toward our area. Surface westerlies will increase sharply behind a Pacific cold front progged to move across the NM/TX state line before sunrise and shift east across our CWA by early afternoon. Cooler air aloft eventually arrives tonight, dropping lows into the upper 30s/mid 40s area wide with breezy west winds persisting overnight.
1025 AM PDT Sat Apr 6 2024 Weak high pressure building over California will bring sunny to partly cloudy skies and lighter winds this weekend.
The highest impacts from this system will be for the higher hills and mountains of south central Montana. The lower elevations, including more populated areas, will see more of a rain/snow mix and much lesser impacts from this system.
Then, a dry and slightly warmer weekend is expected, with less wind.
347 PM EDT Sat Apr 6 2024 Low pressure off the New England coast will continue to provide cloudy skies and isolated to scattered rain and snow showers through tonight.
On a broader scale, surface and mid level ridging will continue to breakdown over the next 24 hours as a low pressure system moves east into the Great Lakes region. High pressure influence will continue yielding one more night of calm and clear conditions. Temps will be in the high 30s to low 40s.
Due to the lower confidence in this, have decided to not amend the forecast, keeping lows in the mid to upper 60s.
18Z MAV guidance a couple degrees above current forecast but believe with light winds and dry airmass the lows will be reached. Discussion: For tonight, surface ridging will remain across the southern Appalachians with strengthening ridge aloft. Freezing conditions expected across much of southwest Virginia, northeast Tennessee, and southwest North Carolina.
A cold front extends from the low into eastern Kansas and West Texas. Regional WSR-88D radar trends show showers and thunderstorms along the aforementioned cold front in southeast Kansas, eastern Oklahoma, and into portions of the Red River Valley in Texas. Meanwhile, the Mid- South is on the back side of a 1022 mb ridge of high pressure centered over the Ohio Valley. A potential still exists for a few strong to severe thunderstorms later Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening as a cold front moves into the area. CJC A cold front will push toward the region Sunday with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening hours.
A weak reinforcing cold front has pushed through today. This will help to bring out temperatures down a few degrees cooler overnight with clear skies and light winds.
Drier and slightly warmer weather is expected through the rest of the weekend.
Light showers have begun to pop up, mainly near the coast and over the higher terrain. There is also a slight chance of thunderstorms for the coastal waters, coast, and much of Douglas County, which coincides with the highest probability of showers. Activity will diminish, but not end altogether late tonight into Sunday morning while the upper trough shifts from the coast across our area. Ridging Sunday night will begin a drying trend, though another early morning of valley low clouds is expected.
719 PM EDT Sat Apr 6 2024 Low pressure off the New England coast will continue to provide cloudy skies and isolated to scattered rain and snow showers through tonight.
Warmer/drier weather is in store through the upcoming workweek.
638 PM CDT Sat Apr 6 2024 A cold front will push toward the region Sunday with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening hours.
High pressure will continue to be dominant through today and tonight with dry weather and mostly clear to partly cloudy skies. High temperatures today will be in the upper 60s and lower 70s over southeast Georgia, ranging between the lower and upper 70s over northeast Florida, and in the mid to upper 60s along the coastline.
Lower amplitude trough swinging through today/tonight, focusing on the northern CWA for generally light QPF. Snow levels still look nearly 1K FT higher than last night as the air aloft associated with the aforementioned trough in not nearly as cold as the previous trough that brought us the much colder temperatures. Looking at high-res ensemble members, the area most under the gun for frost tonight/Sunday will be Lake County and interior Mendocino County where temperatures are forecast to dip into the lower to mid 30s in valley locations, along with light to calm winds and little sky cover forecast as well.
1043 PM EDT Sat Apr 6 2024 Dry high pressure will build into the region over the weekend and allows temperatures to warm slowly. An upper ridge now centered over the Mississippi River will remain the dominant feature in our pattern thru the near term, with axis drifting east and setting up over our longitudes by Sunday evening. Mostly clear conditions continue through tonight; cirrus will be somewhat more abundant in our area Sunday afternoon, being upstream of the ridge axis. Previous forecast was at the low end of the guidance envelope, and basically agree with that assessment, so have made very minor tweaks to min temps. On Sunday, temps should rebound at least 4-6 degrees across the board, owing to higher partial thicknesses and light SW flow becoming established under the ridge.
Temperatures are hovering around 7-10 degrees warmer than this time last night.
741 PM CDT Sat Apr 6 2024 (This evening through Sunday) Considerable high cloudiness was drifting overhead of an upper ridge west of the area.
858 PM EDT Sat Apr 6 2024 An upper low off of the New England coast will move further offshore into the Atlantic tonight.
a deep low pressure system is forecast to be over northern Nebraska. Low temperatures area forecast to be in the lower 30s to lower 40s. the upper level low is forecast to slowly rotate into northeast Nebraska during the day then into the Dakotas overnight.
801 PM EDT Sat Apr 6 2024 Dry high pressure will build into the region over the weekend and allows temperatures to warm slowly. An upper ridge now centered over the Mississippi River will remain the dominant feature in our pattern thru the near term, with axis drifting east and setting up over our longitudes by Sunday evening. Mostly clear conditions continue through tonight; cirrus will be somewhat more abundant in our area Sunday afternoon, being upstream of the ridge axis. Previous forecast was at the low end of the guidance envelope, and basically agree with that assessment, so have made very minor tweaks to min temps. On Sunday, temps should rebound at least 4-6 degrees across the board, owing to higher partial thicknesses and light SW flow becoming established under the ridge.
Expect a mild night ahead with warmer than normal temperatures due to insolation from cloud coverage (upper 60s to lower 70s). A trailing cold front associated with a negatively tilting storm system over the Northern Rockies and Plains will approach just to our northwest on Sunday before retreating northward as a warm front. That said, no airmass change is expected to take place and no precipitation is expected with high pressure continuing to maintain influence over the region. Coastal areas will remain cooler courtesy of southeasterly winds (continued onshore flow) advecting cooler air from the over the Gulf of Mexico (GOM). Overnight low temperatures will be warmer than normal (upper 60s to lower 70s) thanks to additional insolation from the presence of cloud coverage.
616 PM CDT Sat Apr 6 2024 (This evening through Sunday night) For tonight and Sunday, the overall trend will be for slowly diminishing winds as the vigorous upper level low pressure system moves northeast into western Nebraska early this evening, then further east into northwestern Iowa and southeastern South Dakota by late Sunday afternoon.
Breezy east of Tucson today with freezing temperatures possible south and east of Tucson tonight. Temperatures are running about 20 degrees below normal thanks to the passage of a trough yesterday into last night.
Increasing southerly winds continue to bring in moisture and warmer air ahead of the boundary tonight into early Sunday.
A Pacific cold front was over eastern Kansas with cooler and drier air over much of the remainder of the state. GFS seems to be on the high outlier with 850 mb winds around 50 knots with HREF only showing a 50 to 80 percent chance of winds there above 40 knots. HREF chances for temperatures to fall below 36 are less than 50%, and less than 10% for temps at or below freezing, so concerns for frost or freeze are quite low.
The area will also be under a somewhat flat 500mb ridge. The combination of subsidence under these ridges will provide for continued dry weather. Due to onshore flow, temperatures will be noticeably cooler at the beaches, with highs Today ranging from around 70 at the coast, to the upper 70s well inland. Tonight will be a warmer night, as flow turns more from the east/southeast.
The upper level low that brought strong winds across our area yesterday will slowly track east across Nebraska today with a trough axis extending to the southwest across our area. Surface winds will begin to ease after sunrise as low temperatures drop into the 30s and 40s, even cooler in our northwest zones where radiational cooling will see some locations approach the freezing mark.
By this evening, precipitation will have tapered off with ridging building over Northern CA and troughing digging to SW Arizona.
101 AM CDT Sun Apr 7 2024 (This evening through Sunday) Considerable high cloudiness was drifting overhead of an upper ridge west of the area.
123 AM EDT Sun Apr 7 2024 Dry high pressure will build into the region over the weekend and allows temperatures to warm slowly. An upper ridge now centered over the Mississippi River will remain the dominant feature in our pattern thru the near term, with axis drifting east and setting up over our longitudes by Sunday evening. Mostly clear conditions continue through tonight; cirrus will be somewhat more abundant in our area Sunday afternoon, being upstream of the ridge axis.
Global and high-res models show a narrow corridor of moisture and sfc based instability with nearly all CAMs initiating convection along a pseudo-warm front Sunday afternoon. We also could end up with slightly elevated cells just east of the warm front using the enhanced frontal convergence to overcome the dry air entrainment. Guidance has started to trend slightly northwest with the higher dewpoints, but we have maintained a general height rise tendency/subsidence through 12-18z on the right front quadrant of an arm of a jet max that peaks to over Texas.
The highest combined impact of snow and wind likely will be over Campbell County.
Latest water vapor imagery and regional observations show a deep low pressure system nearly vertically stacked and spinning over north central Nebraska with wintry conditions behind the low and showers out ahead of it.
1102 PM CDT Sat Apr 6 2024 - Cooler Sunday with rain occasionally mixed with some wet snowflakes with temperatures 10 to 20 degrees cooler for areas along and south of the Hwy 2 corridor. Will contoinue to see increasing clouds from the south spread north with the stacked low pressure system in Nebraska. Winds still gusting as high as 55 mph this afternoon are being driven by tightened pressure gradient and deep mixing over our region ahead of a developing cyclone in moving into the Central Plains. Rain/Wintry Mix Sunday into Monday: The developing cyclone/cutoff upper low moves into the Central Plains, an arm of moisture will feed into our area from the south and east starting Sunday morning, lasting throughout the day into evening.
Discussion: High pressure at the surface and upper ridging aloft will provide plenty of sunshine today. The axis of the upper ridge will shift to our east tonight, and low level southwest flow will begin to increase which will bring an increase in moisture.
345 AM EDT Sun Apr 7 2024 High pressure will build across the region today, sliding off the Carolina coasts on Monday.
A broad trough of low pressure will continue to produce periodic valley rain and mountain snow showers through the day today.
921 PM PDT Sat Apr 6 2024 Weak high pressure building over California will bring sunny to partly cloudy skies and lighter winds this weekend.
Increasing southerly winds continue to bring in moisture and warmer air ahead of the boundary tonight into early Sunday. An upper trough digging south into the area keeps the ARKLAMS in the warm sector with a steady flow of moisture. A developing low drags a warm front north into the region, followed by lower to mid 60 dewpoints.
Quiet weather will reign later tonight through the week as high pressure builds over the region.
1228 AM CDT Sun Apr 7 2024 (This evening through Sunday night) For tonight and Sunday, the overall trend will be for slowly diminishing winds as the vigorous upper level low pressure system moves northeast into western Nebraska early this evening, then further east into northwestern Iowa and southeastern South Dakota by late Sunday afternoon.
Pattern Synopsis / Forecast: Upper level ridging continues to influence the state Sunday, allowing another afternoon of temperatures around 5 to 10 degrees above normal. Model soundings depict drier air remaining in the lower levels, meaning it will take some moisture to saturate that level. Another piece of energy will rotate around the closed low impacting the northern plains.
An U/L ridge will hold over the Florida peninsula for the next couple of days as an upstream impulse is shunted northeast across the northern plains and northern Mississippi Valley.
With a few more hours before daybreak, a few spots could cool into the low/mid 30s, which is cold enough for frost to form. A stream of thin, high altitude clouds from the subtropics was overspreading much of the Lower-48 from Texas to South Carolina. With surface to ~900mb winds finally having some southerly component, high temperatures later today should warm back into the lower 70s, the warmest since last Tue when it was in the upper 70s to around 80.
(Today through Monday) A mid-level trough of low pressure kicks out of the Plains as the next drops into northwestern Mexico and deepens into Monday, turning 500mb flow across Deep South Texas southwesterly through the short term period. At the surface, a weak frontal boundary stalls toward the northern CWA border with a pre-frontal trough of low pressure running down into the upper RGV by the afternoon, turning light winds more northerly along and west of US77 before retreating with the sea breeze from east to west late this afternoon into this evening. Cloud cover still looks to persist across Deep South Texas through Monday, with some hope that maybe during the strongest winds in the lower valley, a few breaks could appear in time for whatever view of the eclipse weâll have in the RGV.
A few light showers in the higher terrain will be possible as well. Thereafter, a ridge of high pressure will build into the region with above normal temperatures arriving by midweek and beyond. Weak, transient ridging over the area this evening will be to our east by daybreak with the next upstream system already on the way. Expect quiet weather conditions tonight with low temperatures expected to be a little warmer and winds becoming lighter.
For Sunday, an upper level trough axis will pass to the east, leaving our area in zonal to southwest flow from the surface to the mid/upper levels.
Like yesterday, despite temperatures well above freezing.
300 AM EDT Sun Apr 7 2024 Dry high pressure builds into the region over the weekend and allows temperatures to warm slowly. As of 250 AM: An upper ridge axis moves over the area today and tonight. Even with the warmer temps, RH values should remain above 25 percent with the meager moisture return just enough to keep dew points from bottoming out. As of 210 AM Sunday: Starting off with an upper ridge axis moving eastward away from the CWA, setting up an unsettled pattern for the remainder of the week. Meanwhile, an amplifying high pressure system over the Gulf and a deepening trough over the southwest CONUS set the stage for increased moisture transport and rain.
A few light showers in the higher terrain will be possible as well. Thereafter, a ridge of high pressure will build into the region with above normal temperatures arriving by midweek and beyond.
204 AM EDT Sun Apr 7 2024 - Showers gradually moving in Sunday Aftn/Eve - Warmer with Clearing Likely For the Eclipse Monday - Unsettled and Cooler into Mid to Late Week No changes from the previous forecast. - Showers gradually moving in Sunday Aftn/Eve An upper level trough pivots in from southwest later Sunday afternoon into the evening. Moisture deepens up as the low level jet works together with the upper level divergence to lead to some stronger lift. - Warmer with Clearing Likely For the Eclipse Monday Cloud trends continue to favor enough mid-day clearing to support viewing of the Eclipse between 2 to 4pm Monday. Temperatures peak in the upper 60s to near 70 Monday afternoon as an 850mb thermal ridge with temps to 5C to 7C lifts north alongside low level southerly winds.
156 AM EDT Sun Apr 7 2024 High pressure will allow for dry conditions tonight.
- Decreasing cloud cover early Monday afternoon as drier air and a surface warm front lift north.
Tonight into Monday a upper level trough will dig from the central Rockies into the Desert Southwest developing a upper level low in the base of the trough.
423 AM EDT Sun Apr 7 2024 High pressure to the east of the area will keep the region dry today.
324 AM EDT Sun Apr 7 2024 High pressure over the Mid Atlantic states will bring warmer temperatures today and will move offshore tonight.
Today: Windy, Cooler with Rain Showers An area of low pressure across the Central Plains this morning will continue to slowly shift into our region today bringing stronger winds and rain showers. The low will be rapidly weakening as it moves into the region, but still expecting ESE winds gusting in excess of 40mph west of the Mississippi River through at least noon to 1PM this afternoon. As evident on GOES imagery and regional radar, will likely see a break in these showers behind the band and before the attendant low pressure system lifts north into central MN by Monday morning.
654 AM CDT Sun Apr 7 2024 Today through Tonight:Increasing southerly wind will increase low level moisture as warmer air advects in from the Gulf of Mexico. Expect increasing cloud cover ahead of the approaching cold front.
Dry air lifts northward today as an upper low pushes east into the Central Plains and the Midwest. This will allow relative humidity values to fall into the low 20 percent range for portions of the region, primarily northwest Minnesota. The highest winds associated with the approaching system look to stay west of the Red River; however, we could see gusts into the range of 20 to 25 mph around Lake of the Woods and the Red Lakes Region. Chances are lower for the central Red River Valley and the Highway 200 corridor (20 percent chance), with less than a 10 percent chance for 0. 50 inch along the Highway 2 corridor.
A weak trough moving through the Great Basin today will keep temperatures around 10-15 degrees below average, with another cold morning throughout the area. After the trough moves through, breezy east to northeast winds will form late this evening into Monday along the Sierra crests with gusts between 35-45 mph. Lastly, Monday morning will be another cold one with freezing temperatures likely. Spring finally returns by Monday through the rest of the work week as high pressure builds across the western US. There is good agreement between the ensembles with the ridge pattern, and there is no indication of anomalously strong ridging.
341 AM MDT Sun Apr 7 2024 A low pressure system will continue to move areas of rain and snow over much of North Central, Central, and Southwest Montana through tonight.
1003 AM EDT Sun Apr 7 2024 High pressure to the east of the area will keep the region dry today.
Warmer and drier weather will stick around today, before slightly cooler temperatures and isolated showers return on Monday. By mid-week, a ridge will build up and bring above normal temperatures and mostly dry conditions through the end of the week. A zonal flow will be over Arizona today, before a closed low passes through tomorrow. This west to east flow will bring warmer temperatures (although still below normal for this time of year), and mostly light winds. Come Monday, this low will dig across Arizona allowing precipitation chances to return.
The HRRR is showing the band over the central and the southern part of the CWA slowly weakening the next few hours as the low level jet veers toward sunrise. Forecast soundings suggest the potential for isolated damaging winds and large hail, though I can't rule out brief tornado before the cold front moves out of the area by 00Z. This front will washout as it moves to the east and tomorrow looks warmer than today.