Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
310 AM EDT Sat Jun 14 2025 Atlantic high pressure will build across the Southeast U. Today: The region will remain between deep layer ridging to the southeast and broad mid/upper level troughing to the west. Lows in the lower to mid 70s inland, and the mid to upper 70s closer to the coast. Daily chances for showers and thunderstorms continue as the surface Atlantic high pressure remains off to our east, and an upper level high is parked off to our south-southeast. As for temperatures, they are expected to slowly increase into the beginning of the week given the persistent pattern underneath the aforementioned upper level high.
1102 PM EDT Fri Jun 13 2025 High pressure will build across the region through the weekend while low pressure remains south of Maine.
In fact, Lufkin was already a degree cooler than our previous forecast low. So we lowered there a couple and a few other mid 70s have been bumped down into the lower 70s category. Light NW flow under the upper low will propagate this activity southward as the cool pool builds overnight behind continued development.
This is in association with the troughing feature pushing just north of the area before being mainly absorbed into the main flow overnight.
1242 AM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025 (This evening through Sunday) Band 1 and 2 GOES satellite imagery continues to clearly reveal the circulation of upper low, now centered over south central Missouri. The upper low will continue slowly eastward during the rest of this period.
238 AM EDT Sat Jun 14 2025 High pressure will remain over the area through the weekend while weak low pressure tracks off the Mid-Atlantic coast passing well south of our region.
(Tonight through Sunday Night) An upper-level trough continues to slowly track through the area with this feature currently centered near SE MO and the Mississippi River. This trough has kept scattered thunderstorms in the area all day, and radar shows a decaying line of showers/storms currently making their way through west TN. As the trough sticks around through the weekend, this will keep daily scattered thunderstorms both Saturday and Sunday.
This will be thanks to a ridge that is parked over northern Mexico and another ridge that is parked just off the east coast in the Atlantic. During the latter portions of the week, an inverted trough could approach the region which would likely lead to increased rain chances.
Chances are around 20% on Saturday mainly east of I-69E and between 20-35% on Sunday, with the highest chances along the coast.
(Today and tonight) Upper-level ridging continues to build across the region with generally more warmer and drier conditions expected for today. High temperatures are expected to reach into the 90s today, with overnight lows tonight only falling into the low to mid 70s.
The rain chances remain above normal for this time of year, and this enhancement is being helped by the upper troughing causing the mid to upper flow to split allowing storms to perculate each day with help of heating. The upper low and attendant trough will be moving east today but will be replaced by another which is currently along the foothills moving into he plains later today into Sunday. Each morning we will see nocturnals form over the warmer shelf waters as the water temps are only within a few degrees of convective temps.
(This evening through Saturday) An upper level ridge will remain centered across northern Mexico through the next 24 hours. This will place West Central Texas on the eastern periphery of the ridge. Expect overnight lows in the low to mid 70s. Hot temperatures are forecast on Saturday with highs in the low to upper 90s.
High pressure remains centered over New Mexico as west through southwesterly flow continues bringing dry and hot air into the region.
1131 PM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025 - Warmer than average temperatures top out in the upper 80s and lower 90s Saturday and Sunday.
A strong area of high pressure will remain over the region for the next few days, bringing seasonably warm temperatures and dry conditions. High pressure continues to build into the area with heights peaking on Sunday.
334 AM EDT Sat Jun 14 2025 - Dry weekend - Increasing humidity and midweek convection - Dry weekend Recent radar imagery shows the last of the light rain south of I-96 continues to whither away as low pressure over Indiana moves east. IR loop shows abundant mid clouds across the region due to a combination of the low to the south and minor short waves to the north moving quickly in the quasi zonal flow over the UP. High pressure over Ontario will continue to produce an easterly flow and (for the most part) lower humidity values; dewpoints mainly in the 50s are expected today and Sunday. Highs today will reach the mid 70s and tomorrow the lower 80s.
As ridging builds into the region from the west, a corridor of decent WAA is expected across central and western Kansas. The midlevel ridge axis will remain just to our west over the course of the weekend which will continue to support diurnally driven, upslope flow convection developing in the High Plains during the late afternoon and early evening hours. With the ridge building into the region, we'll continue to see warmer temperatures over the next several days with highs reaching into the upper 80s to lower 90s with lows around 70.
WV imagery indicates weak ridging aloft building slowly northeast through the Four Corners Region. Near the surface, a lee side trough of low pressure remains anchored in extreme southeast Colorado. Minimal thunderstorm chances (20-30%) pick back up tonight as the SREF indicates another series of H5 vort maxima ejecting off an amplifying ridge axis across the northern Colorado Rockies into the high plains of northeast Colorado/western Nebraska this evening. Near the surface, deep level moisture continues to pool ahead of the anchored lee side trough axis in eastern Colorado with surface dewpoints well up into mid/upper 60s(F) to the lower 70s(F), providing more than ample instability with MLCAPE values in excess of 3500 to 4000 J/kg. Similar conditions are expected Sunday with the upper level ridge axis shifting only slightly easterward.
338 AM EDT Sat Jun 14 2025 A frontal boundary will remain stalled just to our south through the weekend, with a series of weak low pressure systems rippling east along the boundary. Several weak waves of low pressure will ripple east along a stalled frontal boundary draped across Ohio and Pennsylvania, supporting a period of showers across the southern half of the area this morning, before retreating back southward this afternoon.
1109 PM MDT Fri Jun 13 2025 - High pressure builds in bringing hot, dry, and windy conditions to the area for the weekend. Warm and dry conditions dominate the forecast this weekend with an upper-level ridge overhead.
The most focused wing of widespread showers moved northward through the region this morning along a lobe a vorticity on the northeast side of the low, but now we're left with more scattered weak convection closer to the center of the low. Shower and storm coverage will diminish this evening as instability wanes, though at least isolated showers will linger through the night due to the modest forcing associated with the low and persistent rich moisture. The low will be just east of the region tomorrow, allowing isolated showers and perhaps a thunderstorm or two linger through tomorrow afternoon, especially across IL and SE MO as the low slowly departs the area.
1046 PM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025 - Areas of fog are again expected along the Buffalo Ridge and east central SD tonight into early Saturday resulting in reduced visibility. Tonight: Could again see some fog leak down the Buffalo Ridge of SW Minnesota and perhaps the higher elevations of Jerauld and Beadle county.
1220 AM EDT Sat Jun 14 2025 High pressure will build across the region through the weekend while low pressure remains south of Maine.
We should remain warm and humid overnight with low temperatures in the lower 70s. A mid level ridge will be centered off to our west keeping the Southern Plains embedded within a modest northerly flow aloft which will support convective complexes making a run at North Texas nightly. /Issued 210 PM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025/ /Sunday Onward/ Northwesterly flow aloft will continue Sunday as the ridge remains confined to the Four Corners region.
The combination of these dew points and temperatures in the lower 80s will result in surface- based CAPES around 2000 J/kg.
Plume of higher moisture will linger across mainly the Detroit airspace through tonight, north of a low pressure system tracking across the Ohio valley. Higher based VFR will continue to mark conditions at FNT/MBS tonight, outside of an impacts from the governing low pressure. Cut-off low over Missouri attempts to transition to an open wave, gradually drifting northeastward into the Ohio Valley through the next 48 hours.
RH values are expected to remain in the 15 to 20 percent range in many of the lower elevation areas through the weekend.
We should remain warm and humid overnight with low temperatures in the lower 70s. A mid level ridge will be centered off to our west keeping the Southern Plains embedded within a modest northerly flow aloft which will support convective complexes making a run at North Texas nightly.
The activity will begin to diminish this evening, but a similar situation looks to occur tomorrow as the mid-level trough begins to shift east across the Ozarks and towards the Ohio Valley.
An upper level trough remains offshore the Pacific Northwest early this morning, keeping a weak high pressure in place. The highest gusts remain on ridges and coastal headlands, where gusts above 30 mph are possible.
A fairly stable weather pattern is established across our area thanks to the surface through lower level Atlantic ridge stretching westward past Florida. Meanwhile, mid and upper level ridging is in place across our broader area. Surface through mid level ridging will remain in control. The upper level ridge is expected to weaken as weak troughing pinches off in the western Gulf. Expect continued seasonable temperatures with highs in the upper 80s, lows in the lower 80s and dew points lingering in the mid 70s. Atlantic ridging will remain across the Florida Peninsula through the forecast duration.
Several MCS clusters have developed throughout the higher terrain of western KS and NE this morning. Sunday should be mostly dry with low chances for scattered showers and storms to redevelop along any residual boundaries, which remains to be seen as mid range models continue to advertise a slow moving upper trough and MCS sliding southward through northeast Kansas.
A mid-level ridge has pushed over TX from the western US leaving our area under northwesterly flow tonight.
Rising heights ahead of an upper ridge combined with continued southerly will allow for warmer high temperatures than yesterday, topping out in the mid-to-upper 90s. A weak upper disturbance pivoting around the aforementioned ridge may lead to some isolated showers and thunderstorms later this evening into the overnight hours.
A mid-level wave now exiting Missouri will progress east into the southern Ohio Valley this morning which will enhance southerly flow north through the Michigan border, contesting with the broader anticylonic flow from the broad Canadian high pressure over Ontario and Quebec. The slightly cooler temperatures (outside of the vicinity of the lakeshore) will likely be found closer to the MI/OH border given the later departure of cloud cover as deep column moisture needs to be advected and scoured out. High pressure will provide a dry day tomorrow where despite limited thermal advection, temperatures peak into the upper 70s under modest air mass modification.
207 AM EDT Sat Jun 14 2025 Bermuda High Pressure remains in place over the next several days.
Upper level analysis places modest broad ridge over our area, though a short wave sliding through the ridge continues to produce an area of showers and thunderstorms passing near the South Dakota border over southwest and south central North Dakota. Aforementioned low amplitude ridge remains over the region, but a variety of weak short waves continue to slide through. Sunday will see warmer temperatures over the area, along with increased low level moisture. A more vigorous short wave pushes through the ridge towards our area late day into the evening, resulting in thunderstorm development.
The trough axis currently stretches from southern Illinois/Indiana through western Tennessee and westward across central Arkansas.
Meanwhile, a weakening mid level trough axis with some embedded mid level energy will shift slowly east across the mid Ohio Valley today. Overnight lows in the low 60s north, upper 60s south. The weak upper level trough will continue to affect the region on Sunday, with mostly showery activity to start the day, spreading in coverage with isolated to scattered thunderstorms again as diurnal instability comes into play. On Sunday evening, the upper level trough that had been moving eastward through the region will have largely washed out, leaving a relatively nebulous flow pattern in place over the Ohio Valley.
Highs will range generally from 75-85F area wide, but it will be cooler at the coast and in the mountains above 5000 feet with highs in the 60s/low 70s.
Upper level troughing will remain the dominant influence across western Washington through much of the forecast period.
Mid to late week it does look like the overall synoptic pattern begins to sharpen and organize, and this looks to be the timeframe with the highest probability for severe storms.
733 AM EDT Sat Jun 14 2025 - Dry weekend - Increasing humidity and midweek convection - Dry weekend Recent radar imagery shows the last of the light rain south of I-96 continues to whither away as low pressure over Indiana moves east. IR loop shows abundant mid clouds across the region due to a combination of the low to the south and minor short waves to the north moving quickly in the quasi zonal flow over the UP. High pressure over Ontario will continue to produce an easterly flow and (for the most part) lower humidity values; dewpoints mainly in the 50s are expected today and Sunday. Highs today will reach the mid 70s and tomorrow the lower 80s.
912 AM EDT Sat Jun 14 2025 High pressure will remain over the area through the weekend while weak low pressure tracks off the Mid-Atlantic coast passing well south of our region.
600 AM EDT Sat Jun 14 2025 High pressure will remain over the area through the weekend while weak low pressure tracks off the Mid-Atlantic coast passing well south of our region.
Overnight lows in the low 60s north, upper 60s south. The weak upper level trough will continue to affect the region on Sunday, with mostly showery activity to start the day, spreading in coverage with isolated to scattered thunderstorms again as diurnal instability comes into play. On Sunday evening, the upper level trough that had been moving eastward through the region will have largely washed out, leaving a relatively nebulous flow pattern in place over the Ohio Valley.
Cool coastside, warmer daytime highs inland and quiet weather continues through the forecast period.
115 PM MDT Sat Jun 14 2025 - Continued warming into Sunday afternoon, turning cooler for the first half of the upcoming week.
Temperatures will again be a bit below normal with highs in the lower to mid 70s.
An upper level trough remains circulating in the NE Pacific off the coast of British Columbia today, keeping a weak high pressure in place off the coast of central California. The highest gusts remain on ridges and coastal headlands, where gusts above 30 mph are possible.
Temperatures on Sunday will range from near 100 degrees along the Rio Grande to the lower 90s in the Hill Country. Some highs may stay down in the lower 90s over the coastal plains if precipitation and cloud cover develop as expected.
Latest surface analysis had a ridge across the northern Gulf from the east. Mid to late week it does look like the overall synoptic pattern begins to sharpen and organize, and this looks to be the timeframe with the highest probability for severe storms.
Given the extensive cloud cover from these complexes, have lowered the highs for today several degrees.
With more clouds than sun in most spots, 11 AM temperatures have risen into the lower 80s with S-SW winds of 5-15 mph, and some higher gusts. An approaching mid-level trough axis, along with upper level support will allow for numerous to widespread showers and thunderstorms into the early evening.
Latest surface analysis had a ridge across the northern Gulf from the east. This convection is progged to get an early start and hold afternoon highs a few degrees cooler than today. Thanks to our moist airmass, morning lows will be slightly warmer than normal.
(Rest of today through Sunday) Ensemble solutions and sfc analyses depict a rather typical summer pattern prevailing during the short term with a sprawling ridge firmly in control of the west Atlantic and the Florida peninsula. Aloft, models also keep high pressure in place over the region for the next several days. This is mainly due to the prevailing synoptic flow, driven by SE winds associated with the aforementioned high pressure ridge dominating the west Atlantic. Tonight's temperatures are expected to remain in the low-mid 70s inland to near 80 around coastal locations. For Sunday, afternoon highs should be in the upper 80s to low 90s, warmer inland.
Warmer and more humid conditions return for mid to late week with increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms as a low pressure system crosses the region. High pressure will build across the region from the north tonight and through the day Sunday with west-northwesterly zonal flow continuing aloft.
Otherwise, expect a warm, humid afternoon with highs in the low to mid 90s and peak heat indices in the 98-105 degree range. North and Central Texas will remain on the northeastern periphery of a building mid-level ridge over West Texas and New Mexico through the short-term forecast period. However, the ultimate track of this system will be determined by its origin, so confidence is still on the lower end regarding its placement.
Skies will continue to be partly cloudy overnight, with lows in the low to mid 70s. The rainfall will make afternoon highs to struggle to reach much higher than the low 90s.
A strong area of high pressure will remain over the region for the next few days, bringing seasonably warm temperatures and dry conditions. The building ridge begins to peak in intensity today, and a hot day is in store. High pressure continues to build into the area with heights peaking on Sunday.
Synoptic Overview: South Texas will remain sandwiched between two H5 ridges, one positioned over the Atlantic and the other over the SW US through most of the forecast period. Given the S-SE component of the low-lvl winds would expect that low-lvl convergence will be maximized over northern portions of the coastal bend so consequently. Light flow aloft and unimpressive shear profiles should preclude the development of organized storms, although wet microbursts always remain a possibility with CAPE values this high. However, the scattered storm coverage and a moderate southerly component of the low-lvl flow should keep any hydro threat localized.
CAPE will return to locally 2000 J/Kg with sheer possibly slight increasing as the trough approaches from the west.
Upper level ridge centered (aoa 593 DAM at 500 MB) over southern New Mexico extending north-northeast into the northern Plains. Max temps right around 80 degrees tomorrow for most areas, except cooler by Lake Huron/Saginaw Bay/Lake Erie with the easterly flow. The top of the ridge axis looks to be flattening as some Pacific upper level energy tracks through the Pacific Northwest/northern Rockies.
This energy is being directed over the Southeast on the north side of an upper ridge over the Gulf to the tropical Atlantic. Low temperatures in the low to mid 70s expected along the I-10 corridor and north, mid 70s to near 80 south to the coast tonight and again Saturday night.
In its wake, some clearing behind the line has occurred which has allowed temperatures to rebound back up into the lower 80s across NW AL.
In addition, there is a little bit of larger scale lift on the fringe of the upper trough crossing the Mid-South region.
An upper ridge will be building over the Desert Southwest, leaving us underneath a broadly troughy pattern over Southeast Texas.
(This evening through Sunday Night) CONUS wide water vapor satellite imagery and 500 MB RAP analysis shows a distinct ridge over SW CONUS and another ridge centered over Florida. Between the ridges lies an elongated trough axis that extends from the Midwest down to southern coastal Texas. The trough axis isn't as defined over our area as it is over the Midwest. But nonetheless, troughing does exist over SE Texas and we have certainly seen the impacts of that today via heavy showers and thunderstorms.
(This afternoon through Sunday) Per mid-level water vapor imagery, the trough axis has shifted eastward and is currently aligned or just east of the Mississippi River. Subtropical ridging extends from the Western Atlantic into the northern Gulf, so we're not getting true southerly flow today, more of a southwesterly orientation, but there's still plenty of moisture available with mean 1000-500mb RH values around 70-80%. Warm conditions continue tomorrow as the pattern transitions briefly into more of a neutral orientation with subtle anticyclonic mid-level curvature aloft in between the departing trough over the East Coast and a secondary approaching mid-level trough ejecting across the Central Plains towards Arkansas.
152 PM EDT Sat Jun 14 2025 Upper-level ridging remains across the state this afternoon while the Atlantic ridge axis extends across the central part of the peninsula.
A strong area of high pressure will remain over the region for the next few days, bringing seasonably warm temperatures and dry conditions. A strong ridge continues to build across the Southwest through the weekend, bringing a dry period with impactful heat.
(This evening through Sunday) An upper level ridge will remain centered across northern Mexico and the Desert Southwest through the next 24 hours. This is then forecast to track south along the eastern periphery of the ridge Sunday morning into Sunday afternoon.
Mainly VFR through the forecast as high pressure takes a stronger hold over the region with the low pressure system over Ohio pulling off to the east. A mid-level wave now exiting Missouri will progress east into the southern Ohio Valley this morning which will enhance southerly flow north through the Michigan border, contesting with the broader anticylonic flow from the broad Canadian high pressure over Ontario and Quebec. The slightly cooler temperatures (outside of the vicinity of the lakeshore) will likely be found closer to the MI/OH border given the later departure of cloud cover as deep column moisture needs to be advected and scoured out. High pressure will provide a dry day tomorrow where despite limited thermal advection, temperatures peak into the upper 70s under modest air mass modification.
(This evening through Sunday) Quiet conditions persist as a trough pattern set up off the West Coast provides a deep onshore flow regime.
1224 PM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025 An active pattern will persist through the next few days, as mid level troughing maintains its hold on the weather pattern across the region. Moisture advection will continue, with dewpoints remaining in the lower to mid 70s across much of the area. The highest coverage of thunderstorms will likely be this afternoon as we reach our peak heating hours and the seabreeze lifts north providing the surface forcing. The aforementioned trough will move eastward through the overnight hours on Saturday, before the upper low becomes absorbed in the longwave pattern. A secondary, southern stream trough will amplify early Sunday morning as it moves into the Mississippi Valley, providing a similar set up to today. This will keep the high precip chances in the forecast, with 70 to 80 PoPs for the afternoon.