Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
145 PM MST Sun Mar 3 2024 140 PM MST Sun Mar 3 2024 -Winds decreasing this evening with improving fire weather conditions -Near average temperatures to start the week with slight chances for precipitation -Warmer and drier conditions return for the end of the week Current surface map places deep low along the North Dakota/Minnesota border. Initial cold front well east of the forecast area with secondary cold front/trough rotating through western South Dakota. Ridge rebuilds across the area for the weekend, with a return to warmer/drier conditions.
What this means for us is that a cold front currently stalling in the OK Panhandle should mobilize south toward sunrise.
1043 AM CST Sun Mar 3 2024 GOES-16 visible satellite trends and METAR observations still show some lingering low stratus and fog mostly along the TN/MS border with erosion of the low clouds occurring over portions of West Tennessee and north central Mississippi. Cloud cover will slowly begin to move into the region tomorrow as a warm front begins to lift northward.
1117 AM CST Sun Mar 3 2024 GOES-16 visible satellite trends and METAR observations still show some lingering low stratus and fog mostly along the TN/MS border with erosion of the low clouds occurring over portions of West Tennessee and north central Mississippi. Cloud cover will slowly begin to move into the region tomorrow as a warm front begins to lift northward.
Weak cold front comes through Monday night but temps will still stay above normal.
500mb trough will swing through the region over the next few hours, bringing an area of precipitation through the region.
Highs today will be cold, generally in the upper 30s to lower 40s in the lowest elevations with 20s in the mountains.
1010 AM EST Sun Mar 3 2024 High pressure off to the east of the area will keep southerly flow across the region allowing for temperatures to rise well above normal.
Despite what looks to be a fairly decent environment for supporting convection north of our area, any showers forming around the island chain quickly fizzle while the storms moving in from the north decay as they encounter drier air in the lower to mid levels of the atmosphere. Temperatures along the island chain are holding somewhere between the upper 70s and lower 80s as the high clouds have partially held off daytime cooling. Opted to keep slight chance PoPs with the higher chances (20%) located across the Upper Keys.
Discussion: Upper-level longwave ridging across the Eastern CONUS with low- level southerly flow across the Mississippi and Tennessee Valley through the Great Lakes is resulting in warm, above normal temperatures tonight and Monday. With ridging continuing on Monday and some clearing conditions and fog dissipates through mid-day, high temperatures will climb to around 10 to 15 degrees above normal with dry weather and scattered cloud cover.
We remain under this moist low-level flow through tomorrow with broad troughing over the Central CONUS. Cloudy skies should give way to some afternoon sun with more isolated to scattered showers possible, and perhaps a few thunderstorms as we reach peak heating with highs in the the lower to mid 70s.
320 PM EST Sun Mar 3 2024 High pressure will remain in control of our weather through Monday, although a developing southeasterly flow could keep some low clouds around.
932 AM PST Sun Mar 3 2024 A post-frontal trough will support scattered showers through Sunday.
1238 PM EST Sun Mar 3 2024 High pressure will remain in control of our weather through Monday, although a developing southeasterly flow could keep some low clouds around.
Attention turns to a weak cold front slated to slowly sag southeastward through the CWA on Monday.
243 PM EST Sun Mar 3 2024 High pressure will remain in control of our weather through Monday, although a developing southeasterly flow could keep some low clouds around.
245 PM EST Sun Mar 3 2024 High pressure will remain in control of our weather through Monday, although a developing southeasterly flow could keep some low clouds around.
* Trending gradually cooler through the week. Otherwise, surface moisture will retreat northwest with the DL tonight in response to the developing surface cyclone moving from western into north central Kansas. A cold front will sweep southeastward and merge with DL during Monday as it moves from central into southeast Kansas. Cooler, yet still mild, behind the front in central Kansas with southeast Kansas squeezing out one more unseasonably warm day.
140 PM MST Sun Mar 3 2024 -Winds decreasing this evening with improving fire weather conditions -Near average temperatures to start the week with slight chances for precipitation -Warmer and drier conditions return for the end of the week Current surface map places deep low along the North Dakota/Minnesota border. Initial cold front well east of the forecast area with secondary cold front/trough rotating through western South Dakota. Ridge rebuilds across the area for the weekend, with a return to warmer/drier conditions.
Brief break in the weather with a 1 in 10 chance of patchy dense fog forming along the Highway 99 and 198 corridors Monday morning.
- A cold front will trigger scattered thunderstorms late Monday. with the highest gusts in excess of 40mph focused along the I-55 corridor beneath the core of the low-level jet. 12z Mar 3 models have all slowed the approach of a cold front currently across the Plains. As has been noted by the past several model runs, the highest SBCAPEs of 1000-1500J/kg will be focused in the warm sector across Illinois.
320 PM CST Sun Mar 3 2024 Tonight into Monday: Persistence will be the best forecast for tonight into Monday; a warmer weather pattern is taking shape, and dense fog will continue to be a concern overnight into Monday morning. The latest surface analysis shows 1004mb low over central plains and 1020mb ridge over the Southeast states resulting in a tightening pressure gradient which will keep a light southwesterly wind overnight.
- Trending cooler this week with highs in the 40s to 50s with a couple chances of mixed precipitation. These warmer temperatures are all thanks to ongoing strong LLJ which has supported southerly gusty winds. Winds will shift northward causing temperatures to be noticeably 15 to 20 degrees cooler than what we are feeling currently. Another system is possible later this week but with weak agreement in forecast guidance, keeping PoPs on the lower end for chance of mixed precipitation. A cold front continues to sweep across all sites this evening with only RNH and EAU yet to pass overhead. A secondary wave trails the current cold front which could potentially produce -SHRA between 15 and 21z tomorrow.
641 PM EST Sun Mar 3 2024 High pressure will remain in control of our weather through Monday, although a developing southeasterly flow could keep some low clouds around.
- Trending cooler this week with highs in the 40s to 50s with a couple chances of mixed precipitation. These warmer temperatures are all thanks to ongoing strong LLJ which has supported southerly gusty winds. Winds will shift northward causing temperatures to be noticeably 15 to 20 degrees cooler than what we are feeling currently. Another system is possible later this week but with weak agreement in forecast guidance, keeping PoPs on the lower end for chance of mixed precipitation.
Winds turn southwest as the low passes with gusts 30-40 kts. Short wave trough also very well noted moving into central-southeast ND and is the backedge of the precipitation. 500mb trough will swing through the region over the next few hours, bringing an area of precipitation through the region.
957 PM EST Sun Mar 3 2024 High pressure off to the east of the area will keep southerly flow across the region, allowing for temperatures to rise well above normal.
703 PM EST Sun Mar 3 2024 A weak area of low pressure offshore moving north will pass near the Cape Fear region through Monday bringing a few showers. Low pressure late in the week may bring another round of rain and some thunderstorms to the region. Precipitation associated with the low will remain predominantly offshore, however some showers are expected to push into the Cape Fear region late tonight and into Monday as the low passes slowly by.
- Showers & a few strong storms are expected Monday afternoon/night along a slow- moving cold front. This front will then sag southward as a cold front and stall over central WI overnight into tomorrow morning. Tomorrow, a low pressure system will approach from the central plains and kick the front through during the afternoon and evening hours. Gusty winds can't be ruled out either, as CAM models soundings show an inverted v in the lowest 1 to 2 km.
304 PM MST Sun Mar 3 2024 Snow was gradually diminishing this afternoon over eastern areas as a compact upper low continues to lift north and east into North Dakota. Zonal flow begins working into the region tonight bringing mainly dry conditions to the lower elevations into Monday.
423 PM MST Sun Mar 3 2024 140 PM MST Sun Mar 3 2024 -Winds decreasing this evening with improving fire weather conditions -Near average temperatures to start the week with slight chances for precipitation -Warmer and drier conditions return for the end of the week Current surface map places deep low along the North Dakota/Minnesota border. Initial cold front well east of the forecast area with secondary cold front/trough rotating through western South Dakota. Ridge rebuilds across the area for the weekend, with a return to warmer/drier conditions.
421 PM EST Sun Mar 3 2024 High pressure will remain in control of our weather through Monday, although a developing southeasterly flow could keep some low clouds around.
611 PM CST Sun Mar 3 2024 Tonight into Monday: Persistence will be the best forecast for tonight into Monday; a warmer weather pattern is taking shape, and dense fog will continue to be a concern overnight into Monday morning. The latest surface analysis shows 1004mb low over central plains and 1020mb ridge over the Southeast states resulting in a tightening pressure gradient which will keep a light southwesterly wind overnight.
848 PM CST Sun Mar 3 2024 Updated the grids this evening to actually increase dewpoints and relative humidity across much of the area this evening and the low-level moisture is pushing northwest this evening. With increasing moisture across parts of the area, low temperatures will once again range from the mid 40s to the low 60s where higher dewpoints will keep temperatures from falling too much. Highs will range from the upper 60s in NW OK which will be behind the front to the low 80s.
650 PM EST Sun Mar 3 2024 High pressure off to the east of the area will keep southerly flow across the region, allowing for temperatures to rise well above normal.
After a breezy day this afternoon, winds will relax for the lowlands staying somewhat elevated into the overnight hours for the Sacramento Mtns.
Overnight lows will fall into the low to mid 60s areawide with afternoon highs on Monday topping out in the lower 80s once again. While 500mb temperatures will still be cool around -13C to -14C for the first half of the day, weak ridging will be building into Monday night so this will introduce some warming aloft with instability looking to be slightly weaker tomorrow compared to today.
1035 PM MST Sun Mar 3 2024 After a breezy day this afternoon, winds will relax for the lowlands staying somewhat elevated into the overnight hours for the Sacramento Mtns.
A Canadian polar air mass will settle in for the next 36 hours and although temperatures tomorrow night are expected to be only slightly warmer than this mornings low temps, wind speeds will be lower so for now will not issue another Wind Chill Advisory for Monday night into Tuesday.
- A cold front will trigger scattered thunderstorms late Monday. with the highest gusts in excess of 40mph focused along the I-55 corridor beneath the core of the low-level jet. 12z Mar 3 models have all slowed the approach of a cold front currently across the Plains. As has been noted by the past several model runs, the highest SBCAPEs of 1000-1500J/kg will be focused in the warm sector across Illinois. Barnes Cold front will approach the I-57 corridor by 6am Tuesday, then will exit the E/SE KILX CWA during the afternoon.
Winds turn southwest as the low passes with gusts 30-40 kts. Short wave trough also very well noted moving into central-southeast ND and is the back edge of the precipitation. 500mb trough will swing through the region over the next few hours, bringing an area of precipitation through the region.
A cold front currently moving through western Kansas is expected to slow later today in the face of deep mixing.
Though instability will be slightly weaker than yesterday, thanks to slightly warmer temperatures aloft, thunderstorms and possible small hail can't be ruled out.
A cold front will slowly drift into the Ohio Valley on Tuesday and Tuesday night leading to chances for showers and thunderstorms.
225 AM EST Mon Mar 4 2024 -Unusually Warm Monday, Broken Records Possible -Showers and Storms Monday Night into Tuesday -A little cooler, then rain late in the week -Unusually Warm Monday, Broken Records Possible One more day of unusually warm conditions is expected Monday as robust warm air advection and moisture transport continues. -Showers and Storms Monday Night into Tuesday A cold front then approaches the points after 00z and then moves southeast through the night and into the day Tuesday. Given the lower instability values and weaker deep layer shear severe weather is not expected with these storms. -A little cooler, then rain late in the week Showers will be ending Tuesday evening in the far southeast cwa and then we'll see a couple of dry days high pressure over northern Ontario noses into the Great Lakes.
251 AM CST Mon Mar 4 2024 - Breezy and cooler for Monday. 07z observations show a large upper level longwave trough extending from the Pacific coast to the Great Lakes and a subtropical jet along the CONUS-Mexico border. With the tighter pressure gradient on the west side of the low we will see winds increase through the morning and early afternoon hours sustained at 15-25 mph with gusts approaching 35 mph. however with the cooler temperatures and higher humidity values the fire danger should be much less than this previous weekend. This will mean another day of cooler air hanging around much of western Kansas.
pdf High pressure ridge will extend down the east coast Today, as area of low pressure exits to the northeast. At the coast however, the combination of onshore flow across the relatively cooler waters and persistent low clouds and fog will keep temperatures lower. For Tonight, the high becomes centered a little more to the north northeast. The densest fog may not extend as far inland this next night as Tonight, as the gradient will begin to tighten ahead of approaching low pressure system.
1235 AM EST Mon Mar 4 2024 A weak area of offshore low pressure moving north will pass near the Cape Fear region Monday morning bringing a few showers.
1059 PM CST Sun Mar 3 2024 - A dry cold front will bring gusty north winds and slightly cooler air Monday.
1001 PM EST Sun Mar 3 2024 Our weather turns unsettled Monday night into Tuesday as a weak area of low pressure slides up the East Coast.
Look for fair and warmer weather with lighter but breezy winds for Monday through mid week before more unsettled weather arrives by late week. Low clouds are now developing over the high terrain, but will clear by tomorrow afternoon. A broad trough was located over the western states during the afternoon hours. Over the next 24 hours the trough will gradually head to the northeast, exiting Arizona.
- Widespread rain showers will occur late tonight into Tuesday as cold front crosses the region. Deep southwest flow between dynamic storm system positioned east of Lake Winnipeg and large upper level ridge centered near the eastern seaboard will promote another warm day today despite an increase in cloud cover. Morning temperatures in the 50s to around 60 are still expected before cooler air infiltrates the region in the afternoon behind this front.
Despite cloud cover, temperatures warm up into the low to mid 70s this afternoon.
The strong belt of west-southwest winds extending from from northern San Bernardino/southern Inyo counties across southern Nevada and northwest Arizona will gradually decrease this evening and overnight as the base of the upper low draped over the western states slowly lifts over the northern tier states.
Instability will be enhanced as an upper-trough overspreads much of the mid-CONUS maintaining southwest flow across the ArkLaTex. Convection to be driven south into the northern gulf coast on Tuesday as convergence increases along an eastward moving area of low pressure in the Gulf of Mexico. Temperatures to range from highs near 80 today and Tuesday with overnight lows tonight in the lower 60s.
This ridge is maintaining light mostly easterly breezes across the island chain. Meanwhile, an upper level trough has pivoted out of our area leaving almoist zonal flow through the mid and upper levels. Temperature are unseasonably warm in the upper 70s with dew points in the lower 70s. Short Term Update - The Keys will remain within the southwestern periphery of the high complex off to our north and northeast. Expect overnight lows to settle in the lower to mid 70s with dew points remaining near 70. High pressure streteching from the eastern United States to the open Atlantic will maintain light east to southeasterly breezes on Keys waters through the overnight period.
1208 AM EST Mon Mar 4 2024 High pressure off to the east of the area will keep southerly flow across the region, allowing for temperatures to rise well above normal.
Temperatures are quite mild for early March with readings in the low to mid 60s areawide. Most locations will only fall a degree or two through sunup, with morning lows in the lower 60s. A cold front will march east through the Southern Plains tomorrow night and move into the Mid-South by late Tuesday morning. Shower and thunderstorm chances will gradually increase Monday night into Tuesday as a cold front moves into the Lower Mississippi Valley.
1010 PM EST Sun Mar 3 2024 A weak area of low pressure offshore moving north will pass near the Cape Fear region through Monday bringing a few showers. Low pressure late in the week may bring another round of rain and some thunderstorms to the region. Precipitation associated with the low will remain predominantly offshore, however some showers are expected to push into the Cape Fear region late tonight and into Monday as the low passes slowly by. Lows in the lower 50s. Highs expected to reach the lower 70s Tuesday afternoon, with a few spots of sunshine in between the clouds.
Broad upper trough will reside over much of NOAM this week. Mean upper ridging with warmer weather then expected for this weekend, with mild temps looking likely then, along with dry weather.
1112 PM EST Sun Mar 3 2024 Our weather turns unsettled Monday night into Tuesday as a weak area of low pressure slides up the East Coast.
(Today and tonight) A weak cold front will gradually move through the northwest two- thirds of Oklahoma by late afternoon.
/22/ Tonight into Monday: Persistence will be the best forecast for tonight into Monday; a warmer weather pattern is taking shape, and dense fog will continue to be a concern overnight into Monday morning. The latest surface analysis shows 1004mb low over central plains and 1020mb ridge over the Southeast states resulting in a tightening pressure gradient which will keep a light southwesterly wind overnight.
Westerly flow aloft will transition to a brief ridge over the region Tuesday with periods of high clouds moving overhead ahead of a trough approaching the West Coast.
Only PoP chances the rest of the night will be over the higher terrain, and these PoPs will be low. So just a few light snow showers over the higher terrain should do it. TWH Snow was gradually diminishing this afternoon over eastern areas as a compact upper low continues to lift north and east into North Dakota. Zonal flow begins working into the region tonight bringing mainly dry conditions to the lower elevations into Monday.
Per latest water vapor imagery and RAP analysis, a broad trough covers much of the western CONUS, with its attendant jet extending across southern Colorado and northern New Mexico into the Central Plains. This could yield some low clouds along the Lower Pecos Valley tonight, though the westward extent of moisture will be stymied by the continued light southwesterly surface flow. Lows tomorrow night into early Tuesday morning will be slightly cooler, but still above normal for early March, in the middle to upper 40s for most.
1245 AM EST Mon Mar 4 2024 Our weather turns unsettled Monday night into Tuesday as a weak area of low pressure slides up the East Coast.
A cold front will enter the region from the northeast late Tuesday, but will do little to affect our weather.
Discussion: We will be between the upper level ridge to our east and a broad trough to our west for the short term period, and low level southerly flow is resulting in warm conditions with well above normal temperatures.
1103 PM CST Sun Mar 3 2024 Updated the grids this evening to actually increase dewpoints and relative humidity across much of the area this evening and the low-level moisture is pushing northwest this evening. With increasing moisture across parts of the area, low temperatures will once again range from the mid 40s to the low 60s where higher dewpoints will keep temperatures from falling too much. Highs will range from the upper 60s in NW OK which will be behind the front to the low 80s.
- Rain showers late Monday night into Tuesday as cold front tracks through the region. Strong upper level wave/negative tilted trough axis lifting north through the Upper Mississippi River Valley/Western Great Lakes this afternoon/evening. Cold front/frontal boundary to slide through the Central Great Lakes late Monday night-Tuesday.
205 AM EST Mon Mar 4 2024 High pressure was centered over the Mid-Atlantic. Low pressure off the Carolina coast this morning will shift north slowly today spreading more clouds across our piedmont but models overall keep sufficient lift and precip east of our forecast area til this evening, and even into tonight showers will be mainly confined east of the US 29 corridor and scattered with best coverage along the coast. Still looking at mostly cloudy east of the Blue Ridge tonight to partly cloudy west.
(Today through Tuesday) Much warmer and moister this morning with current temperatures and dewpoints in the 50s.
Snow amounts with this system are expected to be light, with generally less than 2 inches expected in the lower elevations and 2 to 4 inches in the mountains. A warm front will lift into our area Monday night and Tuesday morning, bringing more snow. Snow levels will remain on valley floors, although temperatures rising above freezing during the day in the lower elevations will limit accumulation. Additional light snow accumulations are expected Tuesday evening in the lower elevations before precipitation decreases Tuesday night.
- Highs in the low 70s Monday! A large temperature gradient for highs on Tuesday due to a cold front moving through.
Sfc analyses show the parent trough/low complex lingering near the NC/VA border, but its best dynamic support should remain well to our NE. Meanwhile, the mid level trough that swept across the state continues to migrate into the western Atlantic, and allowing for a more stable airmass to slowly return To the area. Overall POPs will be in the lower-end 20-30 percent range today, And on Tuesday with potential for having a pseudo-sea breeze developing in the afternoon hours, which could become the focal point for localized cells. Rain chances decrease on Tuesday as a brief ridge moves into the area. With higher than normal dewpoints lingering over SoFlo as SE wind Prevails, temperatures again hit the low-mid 80s today and Tuesday, With warmest values inland.