Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
The overall larger scale pattern remains quite persistent for our region as the mid/upper level high remains to our northeast, to the south of the Four Corners along the AZ/NM border. HREF/CAMs show scattered showers and thunderstorms developing mainly to the south and east of Tucson this afternoon, attempting to push west courtesy of outflows into the lower elevations/deserts this evening but confidence is low on how much storm activity there will be. The mid/upper level high to our north will begin to shift westward and slightly strengthen as it does so.
This outflow boundary/composite cold front will continue south into our area today and will be the main focus for isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms mainly along and south of I-20 this afternoon and evening.
* High pressure brings cooler, drier, and less humid conditions to the region through the end of the workweek.
Meanwhile, the mid levels will remain dry as pockets continue to pinwheel around the ridge at times.
Moisture circulating around a low pressure system in Oregon and Washington will shift into Idaho and western Montana today. Because of this, northwest Montana stands a much better chance of receiving thunderstorms with little precipitation, and an increased chance for lighting, overnight tonight as the low moves through.
- Pleasant weather with low humidity, cooler-than-normal temperatures and no rain chances tonight into the first half of the weekend. Issued 1046 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024 Forecast details remain on track this morning as high pressure builds into the area. CMiller Issued 338 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024 Today through Thursday: An upper trough sliding across Ontario and Lake Superior continues to drive our weather for now. We should see clearing skies tonight but that upper trough will still be slowly exiting, so a few mid level clouds are probable.
- Near to below normal temperatures will continue through the weekend as cooler air funnels into the region.
- Less humid and cooler conditions for the remainder of the week.
High pressure will begin to build into the area on Thursday which will promote rain-free conditions. Though temperatures are expected to remain in the low to mid-70s araewide despite scattered cloud cover. High pressure is expected to persist over the Great Lakes through the end of the week and possibly the majority of the weekend.
Those behind the boundary will see some cooler temperatures and some slightly lower humidity.
(This evening through Thursday) With the current MCV spinning out across across central Oklahoma, a surface boundary/summertime cold front pushing through our moist surface layer along with vorticity forcing in the mid-levels of the bottom of the trough, will keep storm POPs in through the afternoon across all but northern Oklahoma which is post-frontal. Upper Midwest Region will result in northeast winds for Thursday while the upper ridge over the Western U. However will be tapping into more temperate Pacific air aloft so not expecting any strong warming under this ridge at least for the Southern Plains. As a result, expecting to see temperatures about 5 degrees cooler than normal on Thursday with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s.
(Tonight through Thursday night) An upper level trough will continue to translate across the Plains tonight into tomorrow, sending a cold front southward toward Texas Hill Country. The cold front is expected to stall well to the north of our region, which will maintain near to slightly above normal temperatures across Deep South Texas through the short term period.
Conditions become drier and cooler from Thursday onward. Pleasant weather is expected for the end of the work week as high pressure settles over the region.
(This evening through Thursday night) Today, an upper-level ridge is in the process of retrograding from New Mexico more toward the Four Corner states intersection, causing northwesterly flow aloft. This may cause any convection that moves off the higher terrain to stay west and south of the Panhandles. This would keep any convection that develops on the higher terrain out of the CWA.
Extensive cloud cover has kept temps considerably cooler today, and has also limited instability somewhat.
Our area remains on the outer fringe of a deep upper-level trough and associated pool of seasonably cool air propogating across the Upper Great Lakes region.
* Periodic showers and storm continue through today, with a northwest to southeast drying trend expected tonight behind a cold front.
Cooler temperatures are on tap tomorrow onward with daily rain chances in the 50-60% range.
Watch for a few isolated SHRA/TSRA over the higher terrain, along with some smoke from KHLN south.
The atmosphere has recovered quickly from the showers this morning with temps in the low 90s and dewpoints in the 70s. Temps will again be in the low to mid 90s for most of the area with limited relief if you happen to be affected by a shower.
A few readings in the low 90s are possible in the southwest Thursday.
This feature, coupled with approaching cold front, should allow scattered storms to develop, mainly south of I-40.
Showers and thunderstorms will expand into southwest Idaho this afternoon, especially along the higher terrain near the Nevada border. In general, the smoke will do little to reduce temperatures, and highs will increase a few degrees from yesterday as the upper level ridge centered over the Four Corners amplifies.
- Below normal temperatures will continue through the weekend as northerly flow filters cooler air into the region.
- Isolated showers and storms today A mid to upper level disturbance moving in from the nnw will combine with weak instability from daytime heating and pool of cooler air aloft to bring potential for isolated storms. - Fair weather and below normal temps Thursday The high pressure ridge will build overhead Thursday and bring mostly sunny skies with seasonably cool temps in the lower to middle 70s and mins mainly in the 50s. While some weak troughing will exist aloft, the sfc pattern has a large area of high pressure overhead.
- Pleasant weather with low humidity, cooler-than-normal temperatures and no rain chances tonight into the first half of the weekend. Issued 336 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024 Tonight through Thursday night: With a reservoir of cold air aloft as the base of a 500mb trough pivots overhead and strong solar insolation, numerous shallow daytime cumulus have formed over the region. Otherwise, north to northwest breezes should ease this evening and high pressure will promote clear skies, save for some fog in the Wisconsin River Valley. Tomorrow, high pressure will continue to win out tomorrow promoting dry conditions.
(Tonight through Thursday night) A cold front currently in OK will drop through north and central Texas tonight moving into our warm, moist airmass. Showers and thunderstorms have developed along a prefrontal trough this afternoon over north TX. With the high humidity in place any good thunderstorm could produce an inch or more of rain, but we don't expect any widespread heavy rain.
- Cooler and drier air continues to spread across the area. Highs today, should climb to the upper 70s north to the lower 80s central and south. This evening looks to be outstanding as winds decrease under 10 mph, and temperatures hold in the lower 70s through sunset.
KEY MESSAGES: - Showers and storms expected along and ahead of a cold front crossing over the course of the day. - Noticeably cooler daytime high temperatures. While the frontal passage should be rather progressive, convective development may train until the upper trough pivots closer to the lower Great Lakes. Cloud coverage and timing of FROPA will play a big factor in daytime highs, but overall, it will be a noticeably cooler day across the region (10+ degrees F cooler).
1229 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024 Cooler conditions finally arrive in the Midsouth today. Much of the region should remain at or below 90 degrees, the exception being portions of north Mississippi where there will be one more day in the low to middle 90s. Rain and thunderstorms will sweep across the region ahead of a cold front during the day today.
This low will be the catalyst for our first round of thunderstorms through the evening hours, and into tomorrow morning. This MCS will begin to drop south overnight, as the cold front begins to force its hand.
An upper-level low positioned over eastern Texas is dampening the ridge and resulting in some weak low-level troughing over the Lower MS River Valley. A cold front will also move southeast into the area overnight and through tomorrow associated with a low pressure system over eastern Quebec. The enhanced coverage of rainfall should help to bring heat indices down despite dewpoints in the lower to mid 70s.
413 PM EDT Wed Jul 17 2024 A weak weather disturbance will cross the area tonight followed by a cold front on Thursday.
1133 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024 - Cooler and drier air continues to spread across the area. Highs today, should climb to the upper 70s north to the lower 80s central and south. This evening looks to be outstanding as winds decrease under 10 mph, and temperatures hold in the lower 70s through sunset.
1223 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024 (Today through Thursday) An upper-level ridge over the Southwest will build further north through the period as an upper-level trough over the Midwest digs south into the Lower Mississippi River Valley. At the surface, a cold front is expected to work itâs way south into Central Texas Thursday, before stalling to the north of the CWA.
(This evening through Thursday) Water vapor imagery this morning showed an upper level ridge over the Intermountain West and a positively tilted upper level trough extending from near Lake Superior into Ontario. As the trough deepens and the center of the ridge moves slowly westward through the short term period, the forecast area will see increasing northwesterly flow aloft. Outflow from these thunderstorms has pushed south of the CWA ahead of a cold front, which is still making its way through the southern South and Rolling Plains. First, convection may form along the cold front late this afternoon as the boundary provides a source of weak convergence in an environment with CAPE up to 1500 J/kg and highs nearing convective temperatures. Second, upslope flow should aid thunderstorm development late this afternoon in the high terrain of northeastern New Mexico.
202 PM EDT Wed Jul 17 2024 Cold front pushes through the area this afternoon and evening with another round of showers and thunderstorms. Upper trough and associated surface cold front is pushing through the region this afternoon and evening. Mid level lapse rates are quite weak according to SPC mesoanalysis, however they will likely get a little jump later this afternoon as upper trough gets closer. Cold front exits the region later tonight, bringing cooler and dry conditions for tomorrow. Tomorrow night will be clear and chilly, with lows dipping into the lower 50s.
Low-level heights will maximize across the southeast region today as global model guidance continues to show a weak upper level trough approaching the Lower Mississippi Valley. /CR/ Low level heights will maximize across the region today as weak upper trough approaches the Lower Mississippi River Valley. Overnight lows will range in the lower 70s. /AJ/ By Thursday, the upper ridge is expected to fully break down as a broad trough dips southwards, bringing a frontal boundary into the region.
209 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024 - Gradual warmup through the week with highs in the low to mid 80s this weekend. Mostly sunny skies through the week as high pressure builds overhead. VFR conditions are expected through the period with high pressure moving in.
High pressure will return dry conditions and seasonable temperatures the remainder of the week and into the weekend. KEY MESSAGES: - Showers and storms expected along and ahead of a cold front crossing over the course of the day. __________________________________________________________________ Shower and thunderstorm coverage continues with the slow progression of the cold front this afternoon. Probably more notable is the high PWAT values over the region in moist southerly flow and the rather slow progression of the cold front (at least until the upper trough pivots closer to the lower Great Lakes).
(Tonight through Thursday night) Key Messages: - Minor to moderate risk of heat-related impacts Thursday A weak cold front is expected push the mid to upper-level low pressure out of the region into the Gulf tomorrow as moisture pools up across South Texas with PWAT ranging from 1.
Discussion: Upper heights will continue to lower through the period as a large scale trough over the Great Lakes and into the mid and lower Mississippi river valley shifts slowly southeastward. For tonight into Thursday, we should get another round or two of convection as the upper trough and associated surface front approach from the northwest. Increasing influence from the right entrance region of a jet on the eastern periphery of that upper trough should promote some nocturnal convection tonight, then another round of diurnally driven afternoon storms are expected tomorrow. Discussion: In the upper levels, a trough will be over the Mississippi Valley.
High pressure to the east will move overhead by the weekend resulting in excessively hot temperatures and increasing Heat Risk.
Water vapor imagery with 500mb heights plotted shows broad upper ridging over the Intermountain West and anomalously strong troughing over the Great Lakes region.
Central IL will be dry tonight as a cold front continues to push off to the east, with all associated showers and thunderstorms just south/east of the area so far, and likely remaining southeast of the area. High pressure over the northern Plains will then drift southward the next couple of days, centering itself near IL late in the week then weakening as a weak upper level trough develops over the central U. The high will bring precipitable water values in the neighborhood of 0.
Heat will be the primary weather story through the weekend as a large high pressure center moves overhead. The highest instability this afternoon is forecast over Mohave County and eastern Lincoln County where the probability for CAPE exceeding 500 j/kg is forecast. High pressure center currently settled across western New Mexico will expand westward over the coming days with a slightly strengthening southerly steering flow developing over the region. Unlike a couple weeks ago, this high pressure center is no longer extremely dry and instead has fairly considerable moisture trapped beneath it.
-Cooler and drier for midweek with the arrival of high pressure.
319 PM EDT Wed Jul 17 2024 Showers and thunderstorms across portions of the region this afternoon will shift east and diminish this evening as a cold front sweeps through the forecast area. Cooler and drier weather returns thereafter for the end of the week and into the weekend with along with a long awaited break in humidity.
In fact, with clearing skies and light winds, temperatures and dewpoints will drop into the low to mid 50s.
314 PM EDT Wed Jul 17 2024 * Scattered showers and storms continue through this evening, with a northwest to southeast drying trend expected tonight behind a cold front.
631 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024 (This evening through Thursday night) Today, an upper-level ridge is in the process of retrograding from New Mexico more toward the Four Corner states intersection, causing northwesterly flow aloft. This may cause any convection that moves off the higher terrain to stay west and south of the Panhandles. This would keep any convection that develops on the higher terrain out of the CWA.
619 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024 - Gradual warmup through the week with highs in the low to mid 80s this weekend. Mostly sunny skies through the week as high pressure builds overhead.
High pressure across Minnesota will continue to settle southeast overnight. This will keep a cooler northerly flow in place over our area, allowing temperatures to drop into some rather pleasant ranges for mid-July (mainly upper 50s). Geelhart Central IL will be dry tonight as a cold front continues to push off to the east, with all associated showers and thunderstorms just south/east of the area so far, and likely remaining southeast of the area. High pressure over the northern Plains will then drift southward the next couple of days, centering itself near IL late in the week then weakening as a weak upper level trough develops over the central U. The high will bring precipitable water values in the neighborhood of 0.
High pressure will return dry conditions and seasonable temperatures the remainder of the week and into the weekend. KEY MESSAGES: - Showers and storms expected along and ahead of a cold front crossing through this evening. The cold front itself is just now crossing into the northwest corner of the CWA, and will continue to slowly progress to the southeast through the evening. Partial clearing is expected overnight, although stratocumulus may linger particularly in the ridges.
1004 PM EDT Wed Jul 17 2024 Showers and thunderstorms across portions of the region this afternoon will shift east and diminish this evening as a cold front sweeps through the forecast area. Cooler and drier weather returns thereafter for the end of the week and into the weekend with along with a long awaited break in humidity.
1046 PM EDT Wed Jul 17 2024 - The cold front will continue to trek across central PA tonight along with a band of mainly stratiform rain showers. - High pressure will build in from the Great Lakes on Thursday and bring mainly fair weather with seasonable temperatures through the end of the week. The cold front is continuing to slide east across the state just behind an area of mainly stratiform rain showers. The front is moving quickly along in conjunction with the 500mb upper level trough and is expected to be in far SE PA by 06Z.
715 PM EDT Wed Jul 17 2024 Showers and thunderstorms across portions of the region this afternoon will shift east and diminish this evening as a cold front sweeps through the forecast area. Cooler and drier weather returns thereafter for the end of the week and into the weekend with along with a long awaited break in humidity.
957 PM EDT Wed Jul 17 2024 A cold front will sweep through the Ohio Valley tonight, bringing a cooler and drier airmass for the rest of the work week and into the weekend. High pressure moving into the area in the wake of the front will keep dry weather and temperatures below normal through most of the upcoming weekend. Skies should clear through the night as the upper trough departs, and temperatures drop into the 50s and lower 60s. Temperatures a good 8-10F below normal as the mid level height trough/low level thermal troughs move across the area.
Sprawling high pressure over the Upper Mississippi valley early tonight will gradually settle across all of the Great Lakes and Ohio valley through the weekend and can be thanked for the change to fair pleasant conditions. A mid-level trough will move across our region overnight, and this will gradually usher in a cooler and drier air mass. Can't rule out a stray shower with this trough this evening before the drier air mass wins out later tonight. It will be notably cooler and more comfortable with highs will be in the lower to mid 70s. This will support good radiational cooling overnight, with the cooler spots found in the upper 40s and a range of 50s elsewhere.
High pressure will begin to build into the area on Thursday which will promote rain-free conditions. Though temperatures are expected to remain in the low to mid-70s areawide despite scattered cloud cover. High pressure is expected to persist over the Great Lakes through the end of the week and possibly the majority of the weekend.
High pressure will return dry conditions and seasonable temperatures the remainder of the week and into the weekend. - A cooler and less humid air mass will build in overnight behind a cold front. The remaining heavier showers will exit the region over the next couple of hours, but an isolated shower or two will remain possible until the cold front completes its passage, which will occur during the overnight hours. Clearing is expected overnight, although patches of stratocumulus may linger particularly in the ridges. The combination of the cooler air mass, the now wet ground, and lighter wind may created instance of patchy fog, although ongoing mixing may limit its extent to some degree outside of valleys.
Storms have developed again today over the higher terrain, with somewhat greater coverage than yesterday. Over the next couple days the strong ridge over the Great Basin will slowly move westward, bringing the ambient moisture with it. With this, we'll see little change in the overall convective potential across northern AZ as the axis of the ridge settles in to our west - but the distribution of the precipitation will evolve as the steering flow slowly changes.
- Pleasant weather with low humidity, cooler-than-normal temperatures and no rain chances tonight into the first half of the weekend. High pressure continues to gradually take control of our weather regime. Gagan Issued 336 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024 Tonight through Thursday night: With a reservoir of cold air aloft as the base of a 500mb trough pivots overhead and strong solar insolation, numerous shallow daytime cumulus have formed over the region. Otherwise, north to northwest breezes should ease this evening and high pressure will promote clear skies, save for some fog in the Wisconsin River Valley. Tomorrow, high pressure will continue to win out tomorrow promoting dry conditions.
A cooler day is also on tap tomorrow as afternoon highs will be in the 80s behind today's cold frontal movement. Cooler temperatures are on tap tomorrow onward with daily rain chances in the 50-60% range.
Sprawling high pressure over the Upper Mississippi valley early tonight will gradually settle across all of the Great Lakes and Ohio valley through the weekend and can be thanked for the change to fair pleasant conditions. A mid-level trough will move across our region tonight, and this will usher in a cooler and drier air mass. Can't rule out a stray shower with this trough this evening before the drier air mass wins out later tonight. It will be notably cooler and more comfortable with highs will be in the lower to mid 70s. This will support good radiational cooling overnight, with the cooler spots found in the upper 40s and a range of 50s elsewhere.
* Scattered showers and storms continue through this evening, with a northwest to southeast drying trend expected tonight behind a cold front.
(The rest of tonight) Analyses indicate remnant mid level MCV/associated trough over sern OK this evening.
754 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024 Cold front over southern KY is now poised to move southward into the mid state this evening and tonight. Those behind the boundary will see some cooler temperatures and some slightly lower humidity.
811 PM EDT Wed Jul 17 2024 Cold front pushes through the area this afternoon and evening with another round of showers and thunderstorms. Upper trough and associated surface cold front is pushing through the region this afternoon and evening. Mid level lapse rates are quite weak according to SPC mesoanalysis, however they will likely get a little jump later this afternoon as upper trough gets closer. Cold front exits the region later tonight, bringing cooler and dry conditions for tomorrow. Tomorrow night will be clear and chilly, with lows dipping into the lower 50s.
The upper high centered over east-central New Mexico this morning will continue to slowly drift west into west- central Arizona this afternoon. Today the main focus for thunderstorm activity will be a bit farther west today compared to yesterday because of the westward drift of the upper high, so primarily across western Santa Cruz and south central Pima county. A slug of dry air noted in the lower and mid-level water vapor imagery across Chihuahua and NE Sonora Mexico will rotate NW into south central Arizona this afternoon.