Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Overnight temperatures are expected to drop a few more degrees, with lows ranging in the low/mid 60s (eastern Ozarks) into the upper 60s (elsewhere). The upper level high remains situated over the Four Corners region, with our CWA continuing to experience northerly flow. Mid-level water vapor imagery captures a much drier airmass that's infiltrated the region behind the weak cold front that passed south through the area yesterday morning. Near-normal temperatures will occur both today and Friday, with highs in the mid to upper 80s into the low 90s. This, combined with the lower dewpoints ushered in by the northerly flow, will lead to much lower relative humidity values in the 30-50% range. For tonight, expect overnight lows to range in the low to mid 60s across the area.
Dew points will mix into the 60s this afternoon and the low-level lapse rates will be high, perhaps even superadiabatic. The front will be swept up by the easterly flow around high pressure, advected into south-central Iowa this afternoon. High pressure will again make fog possible tonight, but again even less dense than the previous morning. Meanwhile, a closed low will impact the Northern Plains Thursday evening and overnight. The better kinematics come in just behind the cold front sometime Friday evening. For solutions, the NAM- based simulations can be ruled out for now as it hangs on to too much moisture in the low-levels; the blocking high pressure makes these dew points seem too high. The main concern would be damaging winds with DCAPE values in the low 1000s.
Ridging is still poised to strengthen over the Desert Southwest this weekend, reducing PoPs and pulling up temperatures.
- The passage of a low pressure system and cold front late this afternoon through tonight will bring a 40 to 70 percent chance of precipitation, with a marginal risk (level 1 out of 5) of severe storms.
Upper ridging retrogrades westward and weakens through the remainder of the week into the weekend as broad upper troughing begins to take its place across the eastern CONUS.
Today Through Friday Night Patchy dense fog will continue this morning before dissipating after sunrise as high pressure remains across the Great Lakes. Tonight should remain dry as the high sinks southeast. Return flow on the backside of the high and increasing clouds will keep temperatures fairly mild tonight as temperatures only fall into the upper 50s to lower 60s. A cold front will track through the region Friday afternoon into Friday night, bringing showers and thunderstorms as it passes through the area. SBCAPEs ahead of the cold front are forecast to rise to 1000 J/kg north and west of the Fox Valley along with 20-25 knots of effective shear.
Hot temperatures will remain through Friday, before cooler temperatures return for the weekend. With such a strong high pressure system, heat will also be an issue through around Friday. An Extreme Heat Warning is in effect through Friday for the lower elevations of Grand Canyon. The lower elevations of Yavapai County will also be quite hot through Friday (Verde Valley near 105F), though cloud cover/precip may impact these areas each day by early/mid afternoon and keep temperatures down a bit.
115 AM EDT Thu Aug 21 2025 Scattered shower and thunderstorm chances can be expected with the passage of a weak cold front through tonight.
(Today) Upper level ridging will begin to build back closer to the local region today and into the first part of the weekend, allowing mainly hot and dry weather to persist for the next several days. A few isolated to widely scattered storms will still be possible both early this morning and again this afternoon across portions of far eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas on the periphery of the building ridge. Temperatures will top out near to slightly above normal in the low to mid 90s for most locations this afternoon.
1239 AM CDT Thu Aug 21 2025 - A cold front will enter into the region Thursday, allowing for afternoon highs to be a few degrees cooler. 24 hour difference across the region shows a cooler ArkLaTex when compared to this time yesterday.
The mid/upper ridge remains anchored over the Central Great Basin/Southwest while the Central Plains remain on the eastern periphery of this feature in weak northerly mid/upper flow. This will yield another day with seasonably temperatures and dry weather with highs in the lower 90s.
- Spotty shower/t-storm chances will return during the day on Friday as a cold front begins to track south across the local area.
652 AM EDT Thu Aug 21 2025 Drier and warmer weather is expected through the start of the weekend.
628 AM CDT Thu Aug 21 2025 (Today) A cold front has moved south of the area, now extending from western South Carolina, to near Atlanta and Birmingham and south of Memphis. With slightly cooler air following the front's passage, temperatures will be a little milder than the past few days.
A weak subtropical high pressure ridge will begin to build into the Keys tonight before settling over the Keys through the weekend. Boaters can expect less clearance under fixed bridges.
The only difference from the previous 24 hours is the elongated ridge axis from Baja California to South Dakota. Storms will initiate along the higher terrain and move west to southwest across the region. The Four Corners High will transform itself to ridge through the Great Basin by the start of the new week. Plus, troughiness will develop near the Pacific coast.
757 AM CDT Thu Aug 21 2025 Upper ridging retrogrades westward and weakens through the remainder of the week into the weekend as broad upper troughing begins to take its place across the eastern CONUS.
709 AM EDT Thu Aug 21 2025 A stretch of dry weather will continue into the weekend as high pressure builds into the region, with temperatures gradually warming each day.
(Today) A cold front has moved south of the area, now extending from western South Carolina, to near Atlanta and Birmingham and south of Memphis. With slightly cooler air following the front's passage, temperatures will be a little milder than the past few days.
556 AM CDT Thu Aug 21 2025 - A cold front will enter into the region Thursday, allowing for afternoon highs to be a few degrees cooler. 24 hour difference across the region shows a cooler ArkLaTex when compared to this time yesterday.
625 AM EDT Thu Aug 21 2025 - High pressure will bring dry and seasonably mild weather through the remainder of the work week.
High pressure builds into the Pacific Northwest starting Thursday for a prolonged warming and drying trend.
310 PM CDT Thu Aug 21 2025 - One more day of seasonal temps before cooler temps for the weekend.
For tonight, a better chance for fog exists as the center of high pressure settles in over the region with clearing skies and lighter winds. Dew points and boundary layer RH are still relatively high, so do not expect a large diurnal range in temperatures with lows in the low 60s. Another comfortable August day in the forecast for tomorrow as high pressure remains the dominant weather influence locally.
149 PM MDT Thu Aug 21 2025 - Cooler for a few days, with little to no chance for precipitation.
(This evening through Friday) The short-term will more or less remain a copy/paste forecast, as we remain on the fringe of the upper-level ridge to our west. In turn, afternoon highs will generally run in the upper-80s, with lows dropping into the low-70s. Rain chances will continue to reflect the orientation of the upper-level flow, as the ridge continues to ebb and flow through the weekend.
Increasing chances of scattered showers and thunderstorms this weekend ahead of a cold front.
(Rest of Today and Tonight) Drier conditions are forecast today in the wake of a cold front tied to a positively tilted upper trough that moved through the area overnight.
Weak ridging remains over the FL peninsula as Erin lifts off the NE coast. Overnight lows will be warm, in the low 80s and upper 70s with the southwest flow off the water.
Hot temperatures will remain through Friday, before cooler temperatures return for the weekend. High Pressure setting up over the Four Corners this weekend will be in a favorable position to finally draw up some deeper monsoon moisture to the area.
236 PM EDT Thu Aug 21 2025 Drier and warmer weather is expected through the start of the weekend.
331 PM EDT Thu Aug 21 2025 - A cold front will bring an area-wide potential for showers and thunderstorms during the weekend, with the greatest probability in southeast Kentucky.
Previous discussion: Drier conditions are forecast today in the wake of a cold front tied to a positively tilted upper trough that moved through the area overnight.
Highs today are slightly cooler in the mid to upper 80s.
Due to the location of high pressure, storms and showers will initiate along the higher terrain and move west to southwest across the region. The Extreme Heat Warning is still in effect today through tomorrow evening for the lower elevations of most of southern Arizona. The high now oval shaped, is bring northeasterly flow across Southeastern Arizona. The Four Corners High will transform itself to ridge through the Great Basin by the start of the new week. Plus, troughiness will develop near the Pacific coast.
905 AM MDT Thu Aug 21 2025 - Noticeably cooler temperatures expected today through the weekend. A cold front has moved across much of the plains this morning, and will continue to gradually shift south through the day today. Cooler temperatures are forecast today, coolest across northern areas.
Friday, upper level ridging will begin to build over the northwestern US. as an upper ridge axis remains to our west and we stay under a drier NW flow aloft.
- Isolated to widely scattered convection is expected over the higher terrain today, with gusty winds and lightning still the main threats.
Ridging continues to retreat southwest this afternoon, with H5 troughing extending southward from an upper low, situated over Saskatchewan and Manitoba. A cold front traverses the area tonight into Friday morning, with much cooler and drier weather expected as we head into Friday afternoon and into the weekend.
A very low chance (10%) of a shower or storm is also possible in the higher terrain of western AR as well. Mejia (Tomorrow through Thursday) Mid/upper level ridging will remain centered over the Great Basin/Four Corners region through the upcoming weekend.
108 PM CDT Thu Aug 21 2025 (Rest of Today and Tonight) Drier conditions are forecast today in the wake of a cold front tied to a positively tilted upper trough that moved through the area overnight.
A cold front will south across NC and then stall across southern Georgia and South Carolina on Friday.
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: A cold front has now moved well east into the Dakotas this afternoon. The big change recently has been the much cooler air, with temperatures this afternoon about 20-30 degrees cooler than this time yesterday. With an upper low over south-central Canada and an upper ridge building over the Pacific Northwest, NW flow aloft will prevail the next several days with mainly dry weather and temperatures that will vary from near normal to around 10 degrees below normal.
- Slightly hotter conditions are expected to develop for the weekend as high pressure strengthens. Temperatures this afternoon will warm into the low to mid 90s, with lows tonight from the upper 60s to mid 70s. (Friday night through next Thursday) High pressure will continue to sit across the western U. Afterwards, the high pressure gradually shifts to the south and produces a bit hotter and drier conditions for the weekend. However, a broad trough across the Midwest then begins to develop and breaks down the high pressure across our area.
132 PM EDT Thu Aug 21 2025 - High pressure will bring dry and seasonably mild weather through the remainder of the work week.
333 PM CDT Thu Aug 21 2025 - The passage of a low pressure system and cold front late this afternoon through tonight will bring a 40 to 70 percent chance of precipitation, with a slight risk (level 2 out of 5) of severe storms.
Due to the location of the upper level high pressure, storms will initiate along the higher terrain and move west to southwest across the region. The Extreme Heat Warning is still in effect today through tomorrow evening for the lower elevations of most of southern Arizona. The only difference from the previous 24 hours is the elongated ridge axis from Baja California to South Dakota. Storms will initiate along the higher terrain and move west to southwest across the region. The Four Corners High will transform itself to ridge through the Great Basin by the start of the new week. Plus, troughiness will develop near the Pacific coast.
- Noticeably cooler temperatures expected today through the weekend. /Issued 905 AM MDT Thu Aug 21 2025/ A cold front has moved across much of the plains this morning, and will continue to gradually shift south through the day today. Cooler temperatures are forecast today, coolest across northern areas.
A cold front will move southeast across the southern Appalachians early this morning before stalling across southern Georgia and South Carolina on Friday.
114 PM MDT Thu Aug 21 2025 - About 10 degrees cooler today, with a more northerly wind behind a weak cold front.
Earlier in the evening we had a cloud line that managed to stretch from the Lower Keys all the way into the opening of the Florida Bay. This coupled with relatively drier in the lower levels is likely contributing to our lackluster radar, despite a southwest to west wind. A weak subtropical high pressure ridge will begin to build into the Keys tonight before settling over the Keys through the weekend.
753 PM CDT Thu Aug 21 2025 (This evening through Friday) The short-term will more or less remain a copy/paste forecast, as we remain on the fringe of the upper-level ridge to our west. In turn, afternoon highs will generally run in the upper-80s, with lows dropping into the low-70s. Rain chances will continue to reflect the orientation of the upper-level flow, as the ridge continues to ebb and flow through the weekend.
614 PM EDT Thu Aug 21 2025 Drier and warmer weather is expected through the start of the weekend.
- Cooler with increasing rain chances this weekend. The short term looks pretty quiet as the surface and upper high will keep the region mainly clear with skies and light on the winds. Overnight lows will fall into the lower to mid 60s. Highs will reach into the lower 90s.
Surface cold front has continued to push east, and sunset leading to low level decoupling has helped close the window on more organized convection. UPDATE Several frontal zones are moving through our CWA; one cold front in northeast ND and far northwest ND and a per frontal trough in west central MN. A narrow axis of ML CAPE 2000-4000 J/KG is still in place immediately ahead of the cold front where MLCIN has weakened. Ridging continues to retreat southwest this afternoon, with H5 troughing extending southward from an upper low, situated over Saskatchewan and Manitoba. A cold front traverses the area tonight into Friday morning, with much cooler and drier weather expected as we head into Friday afternoon and into the weekend.
Storms associated with the cold front have pushed into central Alabama with surface wind observations suggesting the front is draped from Calhoun County in NE AL to Sumter county in west central AL. Elsewhere, rain chances will be significantly lower with mild late summer conditions (highs in the high 80s) prevailing through the afternoon.
This is due to weak high pressure over the region with the ridge axis across the Florida Straits. The onshore flow off the warm waters of the Gulf will likely only allow overnight temperatures near the coast to drop to around 80 or the lower 80s. Weak ridging remains over the FL peninsula as Erin lifts off the NE coast. Overnight lows will be warm, in the low 80s and upper 70s with the southwest flow off the water.
Several frontal zones are moving through our CWA; one cold front in northeast ND and far northwest ND and a per frontal trough in west central MN. A narrow axis of ML CAPE 2000-4000 J/KG is still in place immediately ahead of the cold front where MLCIN has weakened. Ridging continues to retreat southwest this afternoon, with H5 troughing extending southward from an upper low, situated over Saskatchewan and Manitoba. A cold front traverses the area tonight into Friday morning, with much cooler and drier weather expected as we head into Friday afternoon and into the weekend.
814 PM MDT Thu Aug 21 2025 - Cooler for a few days, with little to no chance for precipitation.
823 PM CDT Thu Aug 21 2025 - The passage of a low pressure system and cold front late this afternoon through tonight will bring a 40 to 70 percent chance of precipitation, with a slight risk (level 2 out of 5) of severe storms.
- One more day of seasonal temps before cooler temps for the weekend.
Overnight lows in the low to mid 60s still look reasonable with some localized cold spots likely to fall into the upper 50s, especially across north central Indiana. For tonight, a better chance for fog exists as the center of high pressure settles in over the region with clearing skies and lighter winds. Dew points and boundary layer RH are still relatively high, so do not expect a large diurnal range in temperatures with lows in the low 60s. Another comfortable August day in the forecast for tomorrow as high pressure remains the dominant weather influence locally.
- Cooler for a few days, with little to no chance for precipitation.
704 PM CDT Thu Aug 21 2025 - The passage of a low pressure system and cold front late this afternoon through tonight will bring a 40 to 70 percent chance of precipitation, with a slight risk (level 2 out of 5) of severe storms.
206 PM PDT Thu Aug 21 2025 Strong high pressure over the region will continue the warmer than average weather pattern through the weekend.
Highs early in the week could be 10 to 15 degrees cooler than average. An upper level low is located near the Saskatchewan-Manitoba border, tracking to the southeast. High pressure builds across the northern Plains and Midwest, with low pressure systems along the front range of the Rockies. Highs on Saturday are expected to be generally cooler than seasonal average, with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s.
- Chance of showers and thunderstorms Saturday and Saturday night as a cold front tracks across the area.
A cold front will move across the area Saturday with a low chance of showers toward daybreak Saturday morning across the northwest cwa with most models staying dry. Cooler air will begin to arrive Saturday night and will continue through the middle of the week with high temps generally in the 70s and low temps in the upper 40s/lower 50s.
A new cold front will then drop south towards AR. NRLY SFC flow will bring in cooler and drier air to the region in wake of the front.
High temperatures will remain in the low to mid 90s each day with lows in the mid 60s.
A backdoor front will pass over to our north today, keeping some energy over the higher terrain of the MT/WY border. The overall pattern of an upper ridge axis to our west with a dry NW flow aloft, and low level easterly winds will result in comfortable temps.
High temps today and Saturday will range from the low to mid 90s over the metro, to mid and upper 90s over inland South FL.
Through sunrise, a chance for fog exists as the center of high pressure settles in over the region with clearing skies and lighter winds. Another comfortable August day in the forecast for today as high pressure remains the dominant weather influence locally.
1227 AM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025 - The passage of a low pressure system and cold front late this afternoon through tonight will bring a 40 to 70 percent chance of precipitation, with a slight risk (level 2 out of 5) of severe storms.
Surface ridging remains to our north today before moving off to the east over the weekend.
(Today) A cold front that moved southward across the area about a day ago was now stationary, extending from northern Lousiana to SW of Atlanta to across the Carolinas. Slightly cooler and drier air has arrived, as weak high pressure over the southern Great Lakes regions builds to the SE. Enough of it returning will bring low/medium (20-60%) chances of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon across portions of the Tennessee Valley, with the highest chances over far NE Alabama, and lower chances west.
113 AM EDT Fri Aug 22 2025 Drier and warmer weather is expected through the start of the weekend.
A cold front will continue to progress across central and southern portions tonight, with easterly winds occurring in its wake.
By Saturday morning, lows in the 60s can't be ruled out at some cooler spots even into south MS.
With the more efficent rainfall rates and slow moving cells reliant on boundary propagation, localized flooding will be possible in the lower spots. The good news is with rainfall around, temperatures will remain only in the lower 90s through Saturday.
Scattered storms are possible across southern portions of the area and across the higher terrain today.
The upper ridge axis will shift across the region today, maintaining dry mid to upper levels but also sufficient subsidence to keep in place the low level inversion - maintaining shallow mixing. The result: a pleasant day featuring scattered to numerous low clouds, light winds, and afternoon high temperatures in the low 80s. ***** FEW SHOWERS/STORMS SATURDAY? ***** Tomorrow, westerly winds will advect a slightly more humid airmass into the region ahead of an encroaching cold front associated with a seasonably strong upper level trough centered over Hudson Bay. This may foster a couple showers/storms, but most guidance is dry, perhaps because the best forcing - associated with a prefrontal trough - will actually be ahead of this more humid airmass.
- Spotty hit and miss showers and storms possible south of a Brownwood to San Angelo line this afternoon - Drier and warmer for the upcoming weekend. Position of the upper high over Colorado and the northeast flow aloft will largely keep air mass from become capped, but still only looking at CAPE values of 500-1000 J/Kg.
158 AM MDT Fri Aug 22 2025 - Cooler temperatures today east of the Divide, with similar temperatures west of the Divide compared to yesterday. Northwest flow aloft keeps the cooler temperatures from yesterday in place, especially east of the Continental Divide, where the trough's influence is greater. Highs today are in the mid-80s for most locations, with the cooler areas being around Johnson County where the highs are in the mid-70s. For Saturday, the upper level pattern has the high shift westwards.
A stationary frontal boundary extends across south Georgia and then further westward along the northern gulf coast states, while high pressure sits over the Great Lakes region. With Florida situated between ridging to the south and the stationary frontal boundary to the north, we will see a predominant onshore wind flow for the next few days.
1247 AM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025 (This evening through Friday) The short-term will more or less remain a copy/paste forecast, as we remain on the fringe of the upper-level ridge to our west. In turn, afternoon highs will generally run in the upper-80s, with lows dropping into the low-70s. Rain chances will continue to reflect the orientation of the upper-level flow, as the ridge continues to ebb and flow through the weekend.
418 AM EDT Fri Aug 22 2025 - A cold front brings an area-wide potential for showers and thunderstorms this weekend, with the greatest probability in southeast Kentucky.
1250 AM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025 Reduced subsidence aloft continues throughout deep south Texas as a mid-level high pressure holds steady over the Four Corners region.
High pressure arching over from the 4 corners region will begin to peak today with highs most likely between 104 and 108 in the hottest interior valleys this afternoon.