Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
633 AM CDT Tue Oct 15 2024 (Today through Wednesday) This AM, a cold front is stretched across the gulf coast with surface ridging across E Conus and much colder air across C AL. This colder air will get reinforced this evening as a stronger ridge spreads SWD across the ERN 2/3 of the US. This system will help our temperatures cool even further tonight as a 1032mb ridge center sinks into the KS/OK/MO area with NRLY flow into AL. Look for the lowest high temps this week on Wednesday topping out in the lower to mid 60s.
(This evening through Wednesday Night) Cooler, drier air will continue to filter in across the Four State Region through the middle of the week. The subsequent troughing and attendant frontal boundary from this pattern will introduce elevated northerly wind speeds (10 mph) and dew points in the lower 30s through tonight and tomorrow. Temperatures will remain much cooler than average for this time of the year with maximums/minimums in the upper 60s to lower 70s/40s to lower 50s, respectively.
In the upper levels, there is a large upper level trough encompassing much of the eastern United States with ridging to the southeast of the Keys. Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday night, the real first fall cold front is expected to approach and then slide through the Keys. As a result, winds will quickly increase behind the passage of the cold front bringing windy conditions to the Island Chain.
Pattern/synopsis: High pressure over MN is moving south. East of the high, cold advection continues on northerly flow. The high moves to MO by later Wednesday, with a ridge axis folding into northern MI in the afternoon. Don't expect snow to mix in much, as the fetch will tend to keep showers off of the higher terrain even as we try to cool off tonight. Simply put, large dome of high pressure builds over the Great Lakes region, with height anomalies ~2-3 sigmas above average. Sfc response will be for high pressure to slide to the east to southeast with time, allowing for modestly breezy southwest flow, and thus, anomalously warm temperatures to filter into northern Michigan.
Otherwise, the cooler air will be a significant story in itself, and some locations along the Highway 82 corridor could dip below 40 for the first time since early last spring.
1221 PM CDT Tue Oct 15 2024 - High confidence (90%) in temperatures falling below freezing tonight.
Where the growing season has not already concluded, a Freeze Warning remains in effect, and a Frost Advisory in Door County where temps will be slightly warmer.
- A cold front will bring breezy conditions tonight into Wednesday morning and cooler temperatures for the rest of the week. (This evening through Wednesday) This afternoon, a broad upper-level trough was digging southward over the southern US. This feature was pushing a surface cold front into the southern Plains. High temperatures should be in the upper 60s to mid 70s, which is about 20 degrees cooler than what we have seen the past several days and should be a welcome change.
(The rest of today) Another cold front is set to sweep across the area through the rest of the morning and afternoon hours.
347 PM EDT Tue Oct 15 2024 A strong upper level trough of low pressure will cross the Ohio Valley tonight, with a deep and persistent northerly flow behind it.
238 PM CDT Tue Oct 15 2024 - Widespread sub-freezing temperatures tonight.
- Sub-freezing lows expected overnight Tuesday into Wednesday. Above that, strong northwesterly flow continues to bring dry cooler air into the area. This enhances overnight radiational cooling and will result in lows across the area dipping to below freezing. Parts of the KC downtown urban heat island may be able to stay just above freezing; however, confidence is high that most places will dip below 32 degrees early Wednesday morning. An upper level low in the eastern CONUS is shoved eastward with the encouragement of a building ridge across the central CONUS. This southwesterly flow funnels warm air into the area ascending temperatures into the high 60s then mid 70s by the end of the week.
It's possible a few of the coldest locations each night could dip to the freezing mark for daybreak lows.
A cold front will quickly move through the forecast area later this evening. (Now through Wednesday night) A large upper level trough will amplify over the eastern states through midweek. Lows tonight will fall into the low to mid 40s inland to low 50s along the coast. Highs on Wednesday will be much cooler, in the mid and upper 60s.
A low to mid-level trough axis is moving towards the Tennessee Valley with pockets of moisture denoted by a few patches of clouds across the area. The trough axis will rotate across Central Alabama tonight which will reinforce the cool, dry airmass as deep flow takes more of a northerly to northeasterly heading. With strong PVA, the trough will bring some clouds overnight, but the lack of moisture should prevent any rainfall. Deep layer ridging will quickly build eastward to replace the departing trough, and the high pressure center will sink southward tomorrow across the Upper Midwest and to the Midsouth region.
1152 AM EDT Tue Oct 15 2024 Canadian high pressure will build southward towards the Appalachian Mountains by Wednesday.
The actual cold front will move south through the area later tonight and Wednesday. Behind the front much cooler drier air will overspread the area on breezy north to northeast winds as strong high pressure builds in from the north.
(Rest of today through Wednesday) The first push of cold air this fall is upon us, with a strong cold front moving through the area today. Should winds calm down further, low lying areas and other locations prone to cooler temps may even see lows in the upper 20s tonight and/or Wednesday night. Therefore widespread frost and even freezing temps are likely tonight and Wednesday night.
As a cold front slowly pushes south over our waters, cool air will continue to filter over the region this evening with lows across our FL counties and southernmost SW GA counties remaining in the low to mid 50s. During the day tomorrow, more cooler air will continue to push deeper into the southeast with notably cold daytime highs compared to our recent highs. With this, conditions will remain quite breezy as well with the passage of the cold front with a crisp fall afternoon on tap.
Farther east, clouds associated with a deep positively tilted trough remain in place keeping conditions a bit cooler. Afternoon highs should range from the low 60s in the northern portions of the Midsouth with low 70s in the south.
A mix with some snow at times in the higher terrain tonight is possible, though no accumulation is expected. Showers will diminish on Wednesday, with quieter and warmer weather returning late in the week. Scattered lake enhanced showers will continue through the overnight, with the highest chances across the Finger Lakes to Oneida county. This will allow for frost to develop, especially across the higher elevations of Luzerne county and sheltered valleys. Lake effect showers will dissipate by early afternoon Wednesday as high pressure slowly builds in from the SW. Temperatures across our counties in PA still in the growing season could see temperatures fall below freezing wednesday night as high pressure overhead clears out the clouds and brings very light to calm winds. High pressure will start to build into the region.
Brisk northerly flow/cold air advection continues tonight and Wednesday morning over Lwr MI on the east side of that high before temps finally begin to moderate in the return flow on the back side of the high.
Rain, breezy winds, and cooler weather will accompany the arrival of a cold front Wednesday. Chilly and showery weather is likely to continue through the end of the week, with some snow likely in the higher mountains.
(Tonight through Wednesday night) The recent stretch of record heat across South-Central Texas finally comes to an end beyond this afternoon as a cold front will advance across the region overnight. Lows will range from the mid 40s within the lower drainage valleys to the upper 50s to near 60 degrees along the Rio Grande.
154 PM CDT Tue Oct 15 2024 - Near to sub-freezing temperatures likely later tonight into Wednesday morning, Freeze Warning remains in effect.
158 PM EDT Tue Oct 15 2024 Canadian high pressure will build southward towards the Appalachian Mountains by Wednesday.
128 PM CDT Tue Oct 15 2024 (Rest of today through Wednesday) The first push of cold air this fall is upon us, with a strong cold front moving through the area today. Should winds calm down further, low lying areas and other locations prone to cooler temps may even see lows in the upper 20s tonight and/or Wednesday night. Therefore widespread frost and even freezing temps are likely tonight and Wednesday night.
(This afternoon through Wednesday night) Fall weather is on the way as a cold front is set to make its way into the area early this evening.
1227 PM CDT Tue Oct 15 2024 (The rest of today) Another cold front is set to sweep across the area through the rest of the morning and afternoon hours.
103 PM CDT Tue Oct 15 2024 - Widespread freezing conditions tonight, likely ending the growing season for most.
-Cooler and more unsettled late in the week with a good chance of rain and snow across portions of northeast WY. Flow pattern will become increasingly active this week as a deep upper trough advects into western NOAM. Upper trough will move east into the Rockies and support a cold front through the region Thurs with continued breezy winds. Cold front aloft will move into the west later Thur and provide the focus for lift and associated rain and possible snow.
- Warming trend during the late week into the weekend as high pressure brings dry conditions. High amplitude potential vorticity anomaly/upper troughing for mid October standards will quickly pivot to the Southeast United States tonight and Wednesday.
1126 AM MDT Tue Oct 15 2024 - Cooler and breezy conditions today. - Cooler and more unsettled late in the week. A slow-moving upper ridge is persisting across the northern Rockies to the northern Plains. This will bring cooler air, over eastern SD, westward into the CWA, resulting in cooler temperatures than yesterday. Very gusty winds will continue across central SD through Wednesday and bring much warmer air into the region. possibly warmer near the north/northeast foothills, with downsloping winds. Models continue to show a deep trough developing across the western CONUS for the second half of the week.
Clouds have dissipated primarily and this has allowed temperatures to climb into the lower to mid 60s in many locations. Expect this to keep temperatures warmer than previously though, as models show the pressure gradient not weakening much.
(This evening through Wednesday night) A dry cold front will move through the area tonight overnight into Wednesday morning.
Headlines will be expanded southward slightly and mention frost potential where lows may stay just above freezing.
243 PM EDT Tue Oct 15 2024 Strong high pressure builds southward from Canada across the Midwest to the mid-Mississippi Valley into Wednesday.
Cold, dry high pressure will build into southern Wisconsin tonight into Wednesday morning. Although the eastern half of Lake Michigan counties may stay above freezing, western portions of those counties will likely see freeze conditions. Expect low temperatures in the mid-20s to just below freezing from west to east tonight, with temperatures in the lower to mid-30s near and at the lakeshore. The cooler airmass within the high pressure will still dominate, putting a limit on how high temperatures can rise. Temperatures will fall to near freezing across much of southern Wisconsin once again.
(This evening through Wednesday Night) A backdoor cold front will move through Southeast Texas late tonight, bringing cold and dry weather in it's wake.
256 PM EDT Tue Oct 15 2024 A trough of low pressure will cross the area tonight.
This disturbance is projected to push northward/become absorbed into the overarching trough pattern on Wednesday. Before this low completely dissolves, lingering moisture/instability should keep the potential for showers/storms across our eastern border tomorrow afternoon too.
1238 PM CDT Tue Oct 15 2024 (Today and tonight) The cold front that is due this afternoon is currently moving across the Missouri River. Current forecasted highs reflect more of a MOS blend which has a slightly faster FROPA and is slightly cooler than the NBM. The trend has been cooler over the past few days with MOS guidance being even cooler (upper 30s in Lubbock). As of 2 AM, temperatures behind the front are, on the low side, near freezing while most temps are in the upper 30s to mid 40s. Forecasted lows have been nudged down from the NBM but remain warmer than MOS. One case that would allow for cooler temps would be overnight winds becoming light, but currently winds are expected to remain in the 10-15 mph range through sunrise.
Temperatures below freezing are expected across the entire area.
Pronounced upstream ridge axis has begun to lean into Michigan. Pattern/synopsis: High pressure over MN is moving south. East of the high, cold advection continues on northerly flow. The high moves to MO by later Wednesday, with a ridge axis folding into northern MI in the afternoon. Don't expect snow to mix in much, as the fetch will tend to keep showers off of the higher terrain even as we try to cool off tonight. Simply put, large dome of high pressure builds over the Great Lakes region, with height anomalies ~2-3 sigmas above average. Sfc response will be for high pressure to slide to the east to southeast with time, allowing for modestly breezy southwest flow, and thus, anomalously warm temperatures to filter into northern Michigan.
628 PM CDT Tue Oct 15 2024 (Tonight through Wednesday night) The recent stretch of record heat across South-Central Texas finally comes to an end beyond this afternoon as a cold front will advance across the region overnight. Lows will range from the mid 40s within the lower drainage valleys to the upper 50s to near 60 degrees along the Rio Grande.
Temperatures across northeastern Georgia are expected to fall to around freezing tonight. Overnight lows tomorrow night are expected to produce more widespread freezing temperatures.
855 PM EDT Tue Oct 15 2024 A strong upper level trough of low pressure will cross the Ohio Valley tonight, with a deep and persistent northerly flow behind it.
644 PM CDT Tue Oct 15 2024 (This evening through Wednesday night) A dry cold front will move through the area tonight overnight into Wednesday morning.
640 PM EDT Tue Oct 15 2024 * An upper level trough will pivot through Pennsylvania today into Wednesday, bringing scattered rain showers and perhaps a few snowflake at higher elevations.
606 PM EDT Tue Oct 15 2024 A strong upper level trough of low pressure will cross the Ohio Valley tonight, with a deep and persistent northerly flow behind it.
627 PM CDT Tue Oct 15 2024 - Near to sub-freezing temperatures likely later tonight into Wednesday morning, Freeze Warning remains in effect.
1019 PM EDT Tue Oct 15 2024 A trough of low pressure will cross the area overnight.
645 PM CDT Tue Oct 15 2024 (This evening through Wednesday Night) Cooler, drier air will continue to filter in across the Four State Region through the middle of the week. The subsequent troughing and attendant frontal boundary from this pattern will introduce elevated northerly wind speeds (10 mph) and dew points in the lower 30s through tonight and tomorrow. Temperatures will remain much cooler than average for this time of the year with maximums/minimums in the upper 60s to lower 70s/40s to lower 50s, respectively.
702 PM CDT Tue Oct 15 2024 (This evening through Wednesday Night) A backdoor cold front will move through Southeast Texas late tonight, bringing cold and dry weather in it's wake.
Current forecast lows using the lower quartile (25th %ile) of the guidance spread and headlines continue to look good. Headlines will be expanded southward slightly and mention frost potential where lows may stay just above freezing.
549 PM EDT Tue Oct 15 2024 Strong high pressure builds southward from Canada across the Midwest to the mid-Mississippi Valley into Wednesday.
925 PM CDT Tue Oct 15 2024 Surge of cooler and believe it or not. (This evening through Wednesday Night) Cooler, drier air will continue to filter in across the Four State Region through the middle of the week. The subsequent troughing and attendant frontal boundary from this pattern will introduce elevated northerly wind speeds (10 mph) and dew points in the lower 30s through tonight and tomorrow. Temperatures will remain much cooler than average for this time of the year with maximums/minimums in the upper 60s to lower 70s/40s to lower 50s, respectively.
844 PM EDT Tue Oct 15 2024 Strong high pressure builds southward from Canada across the Midwest to the mid-Mississippi Valley into Wednesday.
(Now through Wednesday) A positively tilted upper trough will continue to progress across the eastern CONUS through Wednesday. An associated strong cold front is still on track to quickly sweep across our forecast area this evening, bringing increased northerly winds, much cooler temperatures and clearing skies tonight into Wednesday. Lows tonight are forecast to be quite chilly in the mid to upper 40s over interior portions of southeast MS and southwest/south central AL and in the lower to mid 50s near the immediate coast and beaches. Clear skies and even colder temperatures are on tap for Wednesday night, with lows falling into the mid to upper 30s over interior areas and in the lower 40s to lower 50s closer to the immediate coast and beaches.
- A strong cold front will move through tonight with gusty northeast winds.
222 PM PDT Tue Oct 15 2024 * The first storm of the week arrives Wednesday and ushers in cooler temperatures as well as our initial round of showers, including snow showers in the highest terrain.
(Tonight) A secondary cold front is moving south through the region, bringing even colder and drier conditions to the area as a positively tilted upper trough digs south into the Tennessee Valley.
613 PM CDT Tue Oct 15 2024 (Rest of today through Wednesday) The first push of cold air this fall is upon us, with a strong cold front moving through the area today. Should winds calm down further, low lying areas and other locations prone to cooler temps may even see lows in the upper 20s tonight and/or Wednesday night. Therefore widespread frost and even freezing temps are likely tonight and Wednesday night.
613 PM CDT Tue Oct 15 2024 - Widespread freezing conditions tonight, likely ending the growing season for most.
619 PM CDT Tue Oct 15 2024 (This afternoon through Wednesday night) Fall weather is on the way as a cold front is set to make its way into the area early this evening.
743 PM EDT Tue Oct 15 2024 A trough of low pressure will cross the area tonight.
858 PM CDT Tue Oct 15 2024 A reinforcing cold front plowed through the Mid-South a few hours ago. Winds will gradually diminish overnight as high pressure settles across the region. Wednesday will be a downright chilly day with highs in the lower 60s which is about 15 degrees below normal for this time of year.
745 PM CDT Tue Oct 15 2024 An upper trough is in the process of sweeping through Middle Tennessee. We're expecting widespread lows in the low to mid 30s. (Rest of today through Wednesday) The first push of cold air this fall is upon us, with a strong cold front moving through the area today. Should winds calm down further, low lying areas and other locations prone to cooler temps may even see lows in the upper 20s tonight and/or Wednesday night. Therefore widespread frost and even freezing temps are likely tonight and Wednesday night.
Cooler temperatures and lower humidity will also drift south in its wake.
705 PM EDT Tue Oct 15 2024 * An upper level trough will pivot through Pennsylvania today into Wednesday, bringing scattered rain showers and perhaps a few snowflake at higher elevations.
1200 AM CDT Wed Oct 16 2024 An upper trough is in the process of sweeping through Middle Tennessee. We're expecting widespread lows in the low to mid 30s. (Rest of today through Wednesday) The first push of cold air this fall is upon us, with a strong cold front moving through the area today. Should winds calm down further, low lying areas and other locations prone to cooler temps may even see lows in the upper 20s tonight and/or Wednesday night. Therefore widespread frost and even freezing temps are likely tonight and Wednesday night.
(Today) The upper trough that brought mainly clouds and gusty winds to our area yesterday will continue to move towards the eastern seaboard today. Meanwhile, an upper ridge will build over the Southeastern states right behind it. After temperatures in the upper 30s to lower 40s this morning, highs will struggle to warm past the mid 50s to lower 60s today (cooler in the east).
954 PM PDT Tue Oct 15 2024 The arrival of a cold front tonight will produce widespread rain for the Inland Northwest.
Minor adjustments were made to the temperatures, precip, RHs and winds as the cold front moves slightly faster through the area.
Issued 1015 PM CDT Tue Oct 15 2024 No major changes in the forecast with winds having died down and largely clear skies now across the CWA as high pressure continues to slide into the region. Cold, dry high pressure will build into southern Wisconsin tonight into Wednesday morning. Although the eastern half of Lake Michigan counties may stay above freezing, western portions of those counties will likely see freeze conditions. Expect low temperatures in the mid-20s to just below freezing from west to east tonight, with temperatures in the lower to mid-30s near and at the lakeshore. The cooler airmass within the high pressure will still dominate, putting a limit on how high temperatures can rise. Temperatures will fall to near freezing across much of southern Wisconsin once again.
1241 AM CDT Wed Oct 16 2024 (Tonight through Wednesday night) The recent stretch of record heat across South-Central Texas finally comes to an end beyond this afternoon as a cold front will advance across the region overnight. Lows will range from the mid 40s within the lower drainage valleys to the upper 50s to near 60 degrees along the Rio Grande.
1222 AM CDT Wed Oct 16 2024 (This afternoon through Wednesday night) Fall weather is on the way as a cold front is set to make its way into the area early this evening.
- A cold front will bring breezy conditions this morning and cooler temperatures for the rest of the week. (Today and tonight) In the wake of the cold frontal passage yesterday evening and last night, much cooler air was moving into our area early this morning and accompanied by gusty northeast winds. After highs in the 90-95 degree range yesterday, temperatures will be much cooler today with mostly sunny skies. This to occur as the high pressure system over the Midwest moves east into the Ohio and Tennessee River Valleys.
1226 AM CDT Wed Oct 16 2024 Surge of cooler and believe it or not. (This evening through Wednesday Night) Cooler, drier air will continue to filter in across the Four State Region through the middle of the week. The subsequent troughing and attendant frontal boundary from this pattern will introduce elevated northerly wind speeds (10 mph) and dew points in the lower 30s through tonight and tomorrow. Temperatures will remain much cooler than average for this time of the year with maximums/minimums in the upper 60s to lower 70s/40s to lower 50s, respectively.
1123 PM CDT Tue Oct 15 2024 A reinforcing cold front plowed through the Mid-South a few hours ago. Winds will gradually diminish overnight as high pressure settles across the region. Wednesday will be a downright chilly day with highs in the lower 60s which is about 15 degrees below normal for this time of year.
- Gusty northeast winds and much cooler temperatures are expected behind a cold front today.
1242 AM CDT Wed Oct 16 2024 - Widespread sub-freezing temperatures tonight.
1154 PM CDT Tue Oct 15 2024 (This evening through Wednesday Night) A backdoor cold front will move through Southeast Texas late tonight, bringing cold and dry weather in it's wake.