Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1133 PM CST Sat Jan 27 2024 (Tonight) Convective line of showers has moved well east of the central TN Valley this Sat evening, as the trailing cold front crosses into NE AL. Temps in the wake of the cold front have dropped into the mid 40s, mainly along/west of the I-65 corridor. Upper low/trough axis also lingers back to the west over the Mid South/Midwest states, although this feature will continue to translate eastward into the TN/OH Valley regions later tonight. Low clouds surround the upper trough pattern and this cloud cover will continue to spread into the area overnight. With the influx of cooler air, lows into early Sun look to fall mainly into the lower 40s/near 40F for most spots.
1054 PM CST Sat Jan 27 2024 - There is a 30-60 percent chance of dense fog, perhaps freezing fog developing later tonight into Sunday morning, mainly areas along and west of US Highway 65. A large upper level ridge could be seen developing across the western US and this will be moving in this week. A look at high res ensembles shows about a 40-60 percent chance of dense fog tonight, with the highest chances along and west of Highway 65. Therefore we will need to closely monitor for freezing fog to develop which could pose slick spots and bridges and overpasses. Sunday: Fog will slowly erode during the morning as ridging develops aloft. Areas east of Springfield will likely hold onto the clouds a little longer, holding temps back to the lower 40s.
- Upper-level ridge remains over the region leading to sunny skies and warming temperatures throughout the work week. Although the CWA will be positioned under the leading edge of an upper-level ridge, the aforementioned weak disturbance will increase mid-level moisture for areas west of the Laramie Range. Heading into Monday, the upper-level ridge axis slowly pushes eastward, leading to continued dry, and warming temperatures. Prior to this pattern shift, an upper-level ridge will remain overhead for the start of the work week with ample surface warming expected.
The warming trend will continue with high temperatures peaking 3 to 6 degrees warmer than yesterday depending on location.
1043 PM CST Sat Jan 27 2024 (This evening through Sunday) As the upper level trough continues to shift north and east towards the Great Lakes, skies continue to clear from west to east across Oklahoma and northern Texas, with the current clear skies nearly reaching the I-35 corridor. While temperatures will be below 32 for portions of north central Oklahoma overnight, there is a low probability that the fog will be dense enough for impactful freezing fog, so any mention of freezing fog has been left out. Upper level ridging will begin to impact the region, with clear skies over the region by Sunday afternoon.
pdf Strong cold frontal passage still on track to push from NW to SE across the region with scattered to numerous light to moderate shower activity exiting into the Atlantic waters by the mid morning hours. Low pressure over the Mid Atlantic States will continue to intensify tonight with cold Northwest flow remaining brisk through the overnight hours with sustained winds at 10-20 mph with gusts to 25-30 mph at times. Low level moisture wrapping around the low pressure system will continue at least partly cloudy skies through the night with highest coverage of clouds across inland SE GA.
1005 PM CST Sat Jan 27 2024 (This evening through Sunday) Gusty northwest winds continue behind the cold front that swept south through the area overnight. With clear skies, light winds and drier air in place behind the cold front, temperatures will drop into the 30s area- wide, with a few readings to freezing or colder possibly Sunday morning, especially in our valley areas.
1053 PM CST Sat Jan 27 2024 (This afternoon through Sunday night) WV imagery shows the upper trough moving through the MS Valley this afternoon, and an upper ridge moving into the Intermountain West, leaving West Texas and Southeast New Mexico under dry, northwest flow aloft. Sunday night, with continued return flow and a few high clouds moving in from the west, lows will be a couple of degrees warmer than tonight.
Temperatures in parts of the Milk River valley are currently in the lower teens. Looking ahead, a dirty upper level ridge of high pressure will be over the CWA on Sunday. Upper level ridging dominates The Treasure State. A series of perturbations rippling through the upper level pattern flattens out the ridge across The Northern Rocky Mountain Front, favoring some strong gusty westerly winds and some light precipitation, through much of the weekend.
The warmer temperatures will lead to an increased risk of ice jamming in favored locations on areas rivers later this week as temperatures climb to 10 to 15 degrees above normal.
(Today and tonight) Mild and dry weather is expected today as upper level ridging begins to build north behind the departed upper level trough. Overnight, expecting similar temperatures to last night on the Caprock and slightly warmer temps off the Caprock with lows ranging from the upper-20s in the usual cool spots and in the upper-30s in portions of the Rolling Plains.
(Today through Monday night) Dry and relatively quite weather are expected to hold over the Panhandles as latest model agreement continues to see a ridge build in dry northwesterly flow for Sunday and Monday. Look for afternoon high temperatures today to rise into the low to mid 60s, while Monday will see these temperatures rise closer to the upper 60s with a chance at 70 in some of our hotter locations.
1122 PM EST Sat Jan 27 2024 -Fog may redevelop tonight, but should be mainly focused over the higher terrain of the interior west and east.
1135 PM CST Sat Jan 27 2024 (Tonight through Monday night) A cold front has pushed well east of the forecast area with northwest flow and cool temperatures left behind. Clouds will likely keep temperatures up some tonight, with cooler temperatures for Sunday night with mainly clear skies and lighter winds.
Early morning IR satellite imagery is showing a large mid latitude cyclone moving east through the Midwest and Ohio River Valley, dragging a cold front through the southeastern US and into the Florida Peninsula this morning. Additionally, a weakening band of showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms associated with the prefrontal trough will continue to push through southwest Florida through the rest of the morning. Breezy west/northwest winds behind the front will bring in a much cooler airmass through the first part of the week, with temperatures struggling to rise this afternoon, then lows tonight generally in the 40s and low 50s.
Also of concern overnight are slick untreated surfaces such as parking lots and sidewalks, as refreeze is ongoing with surface temperatures well below freezing tonight. Tonight and Sunday: Subsidence on the backside of an extra-tropical cyclone moving through the Ozark Plateau region has eroded the low clouds across much of eastern NE as of early afternoon.
Weak ridging will keep dry conditions in place with highs climbing into the 60s each afternoon.
- A weak cold front glances the region Monday night, with low (20 to 30%) chances of precipitation.
Temperatures were starting out in the lower 30s to lower 40s across AR.
Highs today range from the lower 50s well inland to near 60 at the coast with similar values for Monday.
510 AM CST Sun Jan 28 2024 (Today and tonight) Mild and dry weather is expected today as upper level ridging begins to build north behind the departed upper level trough. Overnight, expecting similar temperatures to last night on the Caprock and slightly warmer temps off the Caprock with lows ranging from the upper-20s in the usual cool spots and in the upper-30s in portions of the Rolling Plains.
Clouds should begin to clear tonight as high pressure begins to settle in. Northwest flow aloft will exist across the region today, as high pressure at the surface builds in from the west. Patchy light drizzle will continue across portions of the area this morning as a result of moisture wrapping around the low pressure system that continues ejecting northeast of the region. Cooler conditions will exist with highs today warming into the middle 40s to upper 50s with breezy northwest winds. Winds will subside a bit, but they'll remain northwesterly while continuing to advect cooler drier air in the area. Look for lows tonight to fall into the low and middle 30s.
216 AM MST Sun Jan 28 2024 Large ridge begins to move into the area today which will bring a substantial warm up to the region this week. Depending on how much snowmelt moistens up the boundary layer and if the westerly breezes from today's passing warm front calm down will determine if and how much the patchy fog returns overnight. By the upcoming weekend, a pattern change will occur as the large ridge gets replaced by a large trough coming in off the West Coast.
High pressure will keep warming temperatures and dry conditions through the first-half of this week.
509 AM CST Sun Jan 28 2024 (Today through Monday) High pressure will spread over the area as upstream ridging slowly builds over Texas supporting dry, fair weather in the short term.
This is occurring because of the wind collapse and veering to the southwest allowing the near 70 dewpoints to work their magic across the cooler waters north of the Island Chain. Big Pine Key RAWS is reporting 69 degrees while most other Island Communities are in the lower 70s. A low pressure system across the Eastern US, as seen highlighted on water vapor, will drag an associated cold front through the Florida Keys late this afternoon into this evening.
322 AM CST Sun Jan 28 2024 * Patchy dense fog or freezing fog this morning across southeast Kansas. Along the interface of low clouds and clear skies, a transient area of dense fog/freezing fog may briefly affect some locations in southeast Kansas. An anomalously strong downstream ridge will develop across western North America, and the influence of the upper ridge will be felt across the central plains. With the upper ridge axis expected to remain over the Rockies, northwesterly flow aloft will generally remain over the central plains.
526 AM CST Sun Jan 28 2024 * Patchy dense fog or freezing fog this morning across southeast Kansas. Along the interface of low clouds and clear skies, a transient area of dense fog/freezing fog may briefly affect some locations in southeast Kansas. An anomalously strong downstream ridge will develop across western North America, and the influence of the upper ridge will be felt across the central plains. With the upper ridge axis expected to remain over the Rockies, northwesterly flow aloft will generally remain over the central plains.
(Sunday through Monday) Cloudy skies and much cooler once again with upper 30s and lower 40s for most sites, and still a few mid 40s in our far eastern parishes at 4am. The parent upper low is quickly lifting away through the OH River valley and the lingering turning aloft for us will soon fade, allowing the clouds to continue to erode away on the trailing edge. For areas could be dense in E TX where the warmer SW winds kick in before daybreak. Other areas will keep the fog light, but with sub-freezing readings for some of south Arkansas, could briefly lead to patchy freezing fog by daybreak or hopefully just some light frost.
422 AM CST Sun Jan 28 2024 - Above normal temperatures and dry conditions are expected trough the end of the week. - The combination of warmer temperatures and melting snow could also result in possible ice jam-induced flooding along the Platte/Loup River systems over the coming week, although uncertainty is high as this warm-up will be fairly gradual. This relatively pleasant weather pattern is expected to persist for much of the week, as high pressure in the mid to upper levels of the atmosphere remains parked across the plains with a light pressure gradient at the surface.
Much of the upcoming week will be characterized by upper level ridging across the region. The apex of the upper level ridge will be across North-central Montana today, resulting in zonal flow in the mid levels. The apex of the ridge builds further north early this upcoming week, allowing winds to weaken slightly, but it still looks breezy at times.
Skies will be sunny today, with light west to southwest winds and pleasant afternoon highs in the low to mid 60s.
Northwest flow aloft will exist across the region today, as high pressure at the surface builds in from the west. Patchy light drizzle will continue across portions of the area this morning as a result of moisture wrapping around the low pressure system that continues ejecting northeast of the region. Cooler conditions will exist with highs today warming into the middle 40s to upper 50s with breezy northwest winds. Winds will subside a bit, but they'll remain northwesterly while continuing to advect cooler drier air in the area. Look for lows tonight to fall into the low and middle 30s.
- Warmer than normal temperatures and dry conditions expected across the remainder of the area.
534 AM EST Sun Jan 28 2024 A dry and cooler air mass will overspread the region behind an exiting cold front today.
935 AM EST Sun Jan 28 2024 For today, low pressure will track up the Ohio Valley until transitioning to a coastal low off the mid Atlantic and New England coasts. High pressure will then build in for Monday.
So with the cold air advection and cloud cover, temperatures will be much cooler with highs in the 40s to low 50s. We will finally see some clearing with the clouds late Monday morning, with generally sunny skies as high pressure builds into the area.
625 AM EST Sun Jan 28 2024 A dry and cooler air mass will overspread the region behind an exiting cold front today.
(This evening through Sunday) Gusty northwest winds continue behind the cold front that swept south through the area overnight. With clear skies, light winds and drier air in place behind the cold front, temperatures will drop into the 30s area- wide, with a few readings to freezing or colder possibly Sunday morning, especially in our valley areas.
- Clouds should finally clear the forecast area on Monday with much warmer temperatures. Stacked low pressure over the Ohio Valley continues to sling light rain back into Illinois this morning. Since the trough will be accelerating away from the area today, I leaned closer to the more optimistic GFS. Carney The next upstream short wave, which is currently coming ashore over the Pacific Northwest, rounds the the top of the long wave upper level ridge over the Rockies tonight, and dives into the Upper Midwest on Monday night.
645 AM EST Sun Jan 28 2024 Low pressure will track up the Ohio Valley today. High pressure will build in for Monday.
(Today through Monday) High pressure will spread over the area as upstream ridging slowly builds over Texas supporting dry, fair weather in the short term.
405 AM MST Sun Jan 28 2024 Updated Aviation Temperatures will remain warmer than normal through the middle of the week as strong high pressure hovers over the region. A more active, unsettled pattern will return to the area towards the end of the week bringing much cooler temperatures along with increasing rain chances. A pronounced high pressure ridge has become established across the western Conus early this morning, however WV satellite also reveals an innocuous low spinning within the ridge base over NW Mexico. During the latter part of the week, a more active, unsettled pattern will take shape across the region as the upper level ridge shifts east into the plains and the western cyclonic foot of a developing Omega block enters the SW Conus.
525 AM CST Sun Jan 28 2024 (Today through Monday night) Dry and relatively quite weather are expected to hold over the Panhandles as latest model agreement continues to see a ridge build in dry northwesterly flow for Sunday and Monday. Look for afternoon high temperatures today to rise into the low to mid 60s, while Monday will see these temperatures rise closer to the upper 60s with a chance at 70 in some of our hotter locations.
The upper ridge building to the west will start a period of significantly warmer weather from today.
While temperatures are near or below freezing where some of this light mist has been observed, typically much more dense fog is required to achieve any meaningful ice accretion. A ~10 mph northwest breeze will result in a chilly morning as lows reach the low/mid 30s, but ample insolation will allow highs to climb into the upper 50s and 60s this afternoon.
613 AM EST Sun Jan 28 2024 (Today through Monday) Latest ensembles/global models are in better agreement about having a deep trough/low complex pushing into the eastern seaboard and the Carolinas later today, while pushing an associated sfc boundary all the way into central/southern Florida by this afternoon. Thus, POPs/Wx coverage remains low with the highest POPs still hovering the low 20s. Winds continue to veer to the W/NW later today and into tonight in the wake of the FROPA as high pressure and benign weather conditions quickly establish across the region. But the drier/cooler air will not reach SoFlo in time to cool down highs this afternoon, which are still expected in the low 80s. Highs will likely remain in the low 70s, but could be lowered a bit depending on upcoming guidance.
528 AM CST Sun Jan 28 2024 - Above normal temperatures and dry conditions are expected trough the end of the week. - The combination of warmer temperatures and melting snow could also result in possible ice jam-induced flooding along the Platte/Loup River systems over the coming week, although uncertainty is high as this warm-up will be fairly gradual. This relatively pleasant weather pattern is expected to persist for much of the week, as high pressure in the mid to upper levels of the atmosphere remains parked across the plains with a light pressure gradient at the surface.
340 AM MST Sun Jan 28 2024 Large ridge begins to move into the area today which will bring a substantial warm up to the region this week. Depending on how much snowmelt moistens up the boundary layer and if the westerly breezes from today's passing warm front calm down will determine if and how much the patchy fog returns overnight. By the upcoming weekend, a pattern change will occur as the large ridge gets replaced by a large trough coming in off the West Coast.
541 AM CST Sun Jan 28 2024 (Today through Monday) The large upper low is riding along the Ohio River Valley with some wrap around moisture bringing more light showers and drizzle to Middle Tennessee. Looking at soundings, only the near surface will be above freezing so I expect some snow showers to mix in with the rain showers especially in the higher elevations. Surface temperatures should remain above freezing so little to no accumulations or impacts are expected. The shower activity will come to an end overnight as the upper low moves east.
411 AM EST Sun Jan 28 2024 Low pressure will track up the Ohio Valley today. High pressure will build in for Monday.
High pressure over the region will continue to bring dry conditions, light winds, and unseasonably mild temperatures through mid-week. DISCUSSIONâ¦ A ridge of high pressure over the southwest US that extends into western NV/Great Basin region will continue to bring dry conditions, lighter winds, and milder temperatures across much of the region.
A ~10 mph northwest breeze will result in a chilly morning as lows reach the low/mid 30s, but ample insolation will allow highs to climb into the upper 50s and 60s this afternoon.
A weak upper level ridge axis near the Rio Grande will flatten tomorrow, with cirrus moving into the region from the southwest and west tomorrow and tomorrow night.
1058 AM CST Sun Jan 28 2024 - Above normal temperatures and dry conditions are expected trough the end of the week. - The combination of warmer temperatures and melting snow could also result in possible ice jam-induced flooding along the Platte/Loup River systems over the coming week, although uncertainty is high as this warm-up will be fairly gradual. This relatively pleasant weather pattern is expected to persist for much of the week, as high pressure in the mid to upper levels of the atmosphere remains parked across the plains with a light pressure gradient at the surface.
Otherwise, expect a chilly night with low temperatures in the low 40s region wide. Mostly cloudy skies will limit radiational cooling processes and should yield a slightly warmer night - although temperatures should still fall into the mid 40s across the Northern Ranchlands and around 50 degrees across the Rio Grande Valley.
(Rest of today through Monday) Afternoon analysis shows an upper level trough digging through the eastern US, with upper level ridging over the western US. At the surface, a cold front associated with a system moving off the Mid- Atlantic coast is starting to move across South FL, and it will quickly dive south of the area this evening. SW winds become W/NW later today behind the front, and much drier conditions expected as cooler air moves in from the north as high pressure builds in.
(Tonight through Monday night) Key Messages: - Patchy fog overnight Ridging aloft and at the surface will maintain dry and pleasant conditions across South Texas through the short-term range. However, based on the latest guidance projected amount of moisture available in the lower levels, it may be mostly shallow and it should lift by the mid morning hours on Monday as the grounds begin to warm. Lows tonight will generally range from the mid to upper 30s into the low to mid 40s areawide. Monday will be warmer as the flow becomes more onshore during the day. Monday night lows will run a few degrees warmer than tonight, but still in the 40s range.
Light winds and clear skies are forecast the rest of today as high pressure moves in over the region. Muscha (Today through Monday night) Dry and relatively quite weather are expected to hold over the Panhandles as latest model agreement continues to see a ridge build in dry northwesterly flow for Sunday and Monday. Look for afternoon high temperatures today to rise into the low to mid 60s, while Monday will see these temperatures rise closer to the upper 60s with a chance at 70 in some of our hotter locations.
(This afternoon through Monday) The upper level longwave trough axis is currently passing through the Deep South with northwest flow from the surface to 700mb. The potent upper level low is currently centered over the central Appalachians, with just enough lingering lift and moisture to produce occasional drizzle. Chilly temperatures can be expected as a result as highs only top out in the 40s and lower 50s, with gusty winds between 20 and 25mph making conditions feel even cooler. Low temperatures will be chilly in the 30s, but we're not expected to reach the freezing mark due to the persistent cloudcover and mixed boundary layer.
The slow movement of the closed low over the Mid ATlantic region will keep abundant low level moisture streaming into the area through tonight, with a gradual decrease in moisture depth Monday morning. Cold advection through the low and midlevels has been fairly weak. This will keep snow accumulations focused on the higher terrain, mainly above 3000 ft. Accumulating snowfall will end Monday morning as moisture depth is lost and the upslope winds weaken, but some flurries may persist in the higher elevations through the afternoon.
WV imagery shows a broad, upper ridge over the Intermountain West, leaving West Texas and Southeast New Mexico under dry, northwest flow aloft. Monday, the ridge builds farther east into the region, increasing thicknesses and pushing highs ~ 6-8F above normal under sunny skies and continued light return flow.
An area of rain (snow above 8000 feet) associated with a weak upper trough was located near the ID/OR border.
1127 AM CST Sun Jan 28 2024 (Today through Monday) High pressure will spread over the area as upstream ridging slowly builds over Texas supporting dry, fair weather in the short term.