Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
326 AM CST Sat Feb 10 2024 - Temperatures will trend cooler, but remain above normal. A cooler air mass behind the front will limit high temperatures into the low 40s, potentially only the upper 30s along the Wisconsin border, with similar conditions forecasted on Sunday. It will be slightly cooler than recent days, but afternoon high temperatures are expected to remain above normal as morning low temperatures drop below freezing each night. There is a deeper, longer wave trough currently over the intermountain west that will move eastward through the day.
Temperatues will be notably cooler today on the north side of a shallow cold front, but not too far off seasonal averages.
Broad upper level ridging building over NW California has brought a welcome period of calmer weather conditions. High pressure will continue to build through the weekend. Valley fog is expected to persist each night and even spread further south as the ridge fills across the area.
(Through Tonight) Extensive cloud cover and northerly winds in the wake of cold frontal passage have made for a much cooler afternoon than in recent days.
Looking further into ground temperatures which where they have fallen to or just below freezing across east Colorado. A closed upper low near the Four Corners with a trough axis extending northeast across the central Rockies will move into New Mexico this afternoon and west Texas tonight. High temperatures today will range from the lower 30s in Colorado to the lower 40s in north central Kansas and lows tonight will be in the teens and 20s.
Cooler temperatures in wake of the recent frontal passage along with extensive cloud cover.
There remains some uncertainty on the continued advection of the low clouds as short term models present a variety of scenarios. Clouds are forecast to depart with relatively light winds as a weak ridge axis extends across the state.
High pressure will be the dominate weather feature over the Northern Rockies for most of this weekend.
Upper level ridge over the Western US will bring mostly clear skies today. Isolated snow showers in the afternoon across the higher terrain.
1142 AM CST Sat Feb 10 2024 (Today through Sunday) The most significant event during this portion of the total forecast will be the late Sunday morning to early Sunday afternoon passage of a cold front through Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley. By this afternoon, however, drier weather will return in the wake of this disturbance, and persist through the end of the forecast period despite the approach and passage of the Sunday cold front.
pdf High pressure will continue to dominate the weather pattern today and into tonight with broken to overcast high clouds crossing over the forecast area. High pressure will move further off to the east throughout the near term period with a moist prevailing southwesterly flow building across the SE US into Sunday morning.
1124 AM CST Sat Feb 10 2024 Updated aviation portion for 18Z TAF issuance - Cooler this weekend, though daytime highs will still be 5 to 10 degrees above average. However, a high pressure system building across the northern Plains will bring drier air into the region and end the snow across the far north by this afternoon. Cooler temperatures are expected today, but will still 5 to 10 degrees above normal for this time of year. The high pressure will sink south tonight as the ridge builds over the western Great Lakes region. Given the mostly clear or clear skies expected tonight, went cooler than the NBM for lows.
Warmer mid level temperatures look to impede convective development over the southern portion of the area but are less pronounced over interior areas. Temperatures will be mild, with lows tonight in the lower 60s and highs on Sunday ranging from 70 to 75.
1131 AM CST Sat Feb 10 2024 - It will be a bit cooler today as clouds are likely to linger for a good part of the day.
GOES water vapor imagery/RAP 500 mb heights early today show a mid-level trough digging across the Desert Southwest with a subtropical jet/moisture axis extending from the southern plains into the lower Mississippi Valley. A weak cold front moves across the area Sunday morning.
A cold front has stalled over the Midsouth generally along the I-40 corridor waiting for the next midlevel disturbance to kick it farther south later this afternoon.
A veered wind profile up to an inversion based at around 825 mb coupled with speed convergence and boundary layer moisture resulted in persistent light showers in the vicinity of the Lower and Middle Keys for much of the day. Temperatures are generally in the lower to mid 70s the island communities.
1241 PM EST Sat Feb 10 2024 Weak low pressure and a cold front will move east across the area today. Another low pressure system will move across the Tennessee Valley tonight and then off the North Carolina coast on Sunday. High pressure will briefly visit the region Sunday night.
This afternoon, a broad mid level troughing pattern remained in place across the southwestern CONUS. Low pressure remains in western Texas.
GOES-16 visible satellite imagery highlights mostly cloudy skies across the Lower Keys, with generally partly cloudy skies elsewhere.
1140 AM CST Sat Feb 10 2024 (Today and tonight) The large scale broad mid-level trough will continue to deepen as it slowly progresses east today. The trough itself will approach the Plains tonight with another round of rain developing southwest of the forecast area and spreading northeast into the area overnight before becoming more widespread Sunday.
Issued 252 PM CST Sat Feb 10 2024 Tonight through Sunday night: Influence from the upper-level ridge will continue through the remainder of the weekend keeping things cool and dry across southern WI. High pressure currently centered over the Northern Plains continues to gradually slide eastward, which has helped erode the thin layer stratus.
A weak ridge of high pressure will remain across the area through Sunday night allowing for light winds, perhaps becoming calm by Sunday night.
207 PM EST Sat Feb 10 2024 A weak low pressure system moving through the region will bring a chance of showers tonight for areas along and south of the Ohio River.
Accumulations of 1-3 inches are expected along and west of US 83, with the highest amounts near Colorado.
1043 AM MST Sat Feb 10 2024 A northerly flow aloft exists across the northern Rockies this morning downstream of an upper level ridge with axis nearing the WA/OR coast.
As high pressure takes hold overnight, expecting a cold night with single digits and teens for overnight lows in many spots. Could see some low clouds overnight in the Snake Plain, especially from around Pocatello north which could keep temps a bit warmer than currently forecast.
1118 AM CST Sat Feb 10 2024 - Temperatures will trend cooler, but remain above normal. A cooler air mass behind the front will limit high temperatures into the low 40s, potentially only the upper 30s along the Wisconsin border, with similar conditions forecasted on Sunday. It will be slightly cooler than recent days, but afternoon high temperatures are expected to remain above normal as morning low temperatures drop below freezing each night. There is a deeper, longer wave trough currently over the intermountain west that will move eastward through the day.
A sprawling ridge axis remains overhead, but shifted slightly farther east today when compared to yesterday.
Water vapor satellite imagery showing a positively tilted trough over the Central and Southern Rockies. In addition to weak ascent with the upper level trough over northeast Colorado, there is a convergence line over the eastern plains, roughly from Monument to Fort Morgan. Drier air spreads south and east tonight as the upper level trough axis shifts east across the area. Northerly flow behind the exiting trough and fresh snow on the ground will result in a cool day with highs in the mid to upper 30s across northeast Colorado. With clearer sky conditions most of Sunday night, the high mountain valleys and South Platte River Valley near Greeley should see some efficient cooling with fresh snow cover.
(This evening through Sunday) Potent upper level low spinning its way east across the 4-corners area this afternoon will be the main weather maker over the next 24 to 36 hours for West Central Texas. Main severe weather threat pushes east in the morning, but winter weather threat starts to develop as the upper low itself and its deformation zone moves across West Texas. (Sunday night through next Saturday) The upper level low will move off to the northeast of the Big Country by Sunday evening.
238 PM EST Sat Feb 10 2024 (This afternoon through Sunday) Frontal boundary remains situated from the eastern Great Lakes back through the Lower Mississippi River Valley to eastern TX. The highest rain chances tonight will be across north GA, but should begin to creep southward late early tomorrow morning as the frontal boundary gets pushed slightly southward as a low pressure wave moves along it.
Issued 957 AM CST Sat Feb 10 2024 The stratus deck is gradually clearing from west to east late this morning as high pressure builds to our west. Wagner Issued 347 AM CST Sat Feb 10 2024 Today through Sunday: High pressure will begin to build in from the west today, with breezy winds gradually easing by later today into tonight.
Weak northern branch troughing will linger across the Great Lakes Region for the entirety of the forecast period.
On a broader scale, water vapor imagery shows a strong upper level trough/low across the Four Corner region.
For a good portion of the period we'll keep a north/northwest wind, albeit light, which will keep temperatures cooler compared to the past few days, but yet still above average aided by a lack of snow cover to our north.
1246 PM EST Sat Feb 10 2024 - Tranquil weather this weekend - Limited chances for precipitation during upcoming work week - Temperatures back closer to normal through the work week - Tranquil weather this weekend West to northwest winds will continue to advect a cooler and drier airmass into our area today.
The upper level jet will start rounding the base of an upper level trough and cause this disturbance to start shifting eastward from here on out. This will allow some spotty showers to continue mainly over the higher elevations of the CWA. Might see a few more inches of snow along the Divide and the highest peaks of the San Juans according to the NBM. Look for increasing sunshine, even along the Divide, as a tilted ridge axis moves into the area. Stable conditions will also accompany this ridge axis.
Recent snowfall across central Wyoming combined with daytime sun and temperatures near freezing is leading to increased moisture in the boundary layer. Brief isolated snow showers are possible (10% chance) mainly over the high terrain through sunset this evening. Compared to today, temperatures will be 3 to 5 degrees warmer for lower elevations on Sunday. Ridging aloft will cause even greater warming in the high terrain where temperatures rise by 10 to 15 degrees.
742 PM EST Sat Feb 10 2024 A weak low pressure system moving through the region will bring a chance of showers tonight for areas along and south of the Ohio River.
Low pressure continues across Arizona this afternoon, with cold temperatures and scattered snow showers mostly along/east of a Grand Canyon to Williams to Payson line. Most areas will only see brief and minor accumulations through the afternoon as temperatures are near freezing and the sun is shining in between showers allowing for melting on road surfaces. The exception is over the higher parts of the White Mountains and Chuska Mountains where showers have been more persist and accumulations of 2-6 inches are possible through mid evening. The weather pattern changes significantly by Sunday as the low moves well east of the state. Zonal flow or weak ridging and dry weather is forecast to develop over the southwest United States, continuing through the work week.
A warm front will move west to east across northeast MT tonight, with elevations above 3,000 feet expected to have southwest to west winds at times tonight. There is moderate to high (50 to 60 percent) confidence elevations below 2,500 feet in the Missouri and Milk River valleys will see areas of freezing fog tonight. The reasoning is based on pattern recognition of nocturnal warm fronts passing through the area. Low dewpoint depressions and cold air in valleys are expected to keep any freezing fog in place through late morning. This freezing fog is expected to dissipate with a west wind mixing down into valley locations by early afternoon.
As the upper low approaches the area from the southwest Sunday morning into the afternoon, there is expected to be a transition of rain to mainly snow, especially where snowfall rates are highest. Height rises in the wake of a northern stream trough may help with a more easterly shift in the mid-level low during the late afternoon and evening. This should track the low mainly across far southern Oklahoma.
Sunday is looking similar to today just a little warmer over inland areas, but still shy of the record highs which are in the middle to upper 80s.
Partly cloudy skies will persist over east central Florida with overnight lows in the low to mid 60s. Mostly dry across the local Atlantic waters due to an area of high pressure situated just east of the peninsula, though some isolated showers cannot be ruled out. Temperatures are forecast to reach the low to mid 80s, except upper 70s immediate coast (~7-10 degrees above normal). Deepening low pressure will lift NE across the TN Valley Mon then off the mid Atlc coast Tue. A trailing cold front will cross the local area Mon night. In addition, the veering sfc winds out of the SW will decrease the low level convergence as the front pushes through Mon night.
- A dry and slightly warmer than normal pattern looks to persist through the work week. Upper low circulation near the 4 corners region will move southeastward across NM tonight and into TX by Sunday morning. Still appears to be 2 circulation centers taking shape within the broad upper low, with the northern one sending a round of isentropic upglide atop the cold front across southern CO this afternoon. That should change through the evening as snow falls heavier and pavement temperatures drop below freezing.
535 PM CST Sat Feb 10 2024 (Through Tonight) Extensive cloud cover and northerly winds in the wake of cold frontal passage have made for a much cooler afternoon than in recent days.
Afternoon satellite imagery and objective analysis show an upper trough slowly translating through the Desert Southwest/southern Rockies, while upstream a high amplitude mid level ridge axis sits along the Pacific Northwest coast. The upstream ridge will spread east across the Great Basin overnight through Sunday, resulting in cool, dry and stable conditions across the forecast area. Low level northerly flow will maintain a fairly cool airmass across the region, thus any warming trend Sunday will be minimal, and most notable across the higher terrain. An amplified ridge will become established across the eastern Pacific/Gulf of Alaska through much of the upcoming week, with a longwave trough situated across central Canada.
The low clouds and patchy fog is breaking up this afternoon across northern and central Nevada. Upper level low pressure can be seen spinning over the Four Corners region, while in the west, a high amplitude ridge is over the western United States. Surface dewpoints remain rather high in the teens and 20s, and with clearing skies tonight, think some areas could see patchy freezing fog and so have introduced this into the forecast. The ridge is expected to flatten somewhat Sunday and Sunday night.
Low level ridging continues to gradually build into the Western Great Lakes region late this evening. Weak northern branch troughing will linger across the Great Lakes Region for the entirety of the forecast period.
(This afternoon through Sunday) Frontal boundary remains situated from the eastern Great Lakes back through the Lower Mississippi River Valley to eastern TX. The highest rain chances tonight will be across north GA, but should begin to creep southward late early tomorrow morning as the frontal boundary gets pushed slightly southward as a low pressure wave moves along it.
525 PM CST Sat Feb 10 2024 (This evening through Sunday) Potent upper level low spinning its way east across the 4-corners area this afternoon will be the main weather maker over the next 24 to 36 hours for West Central Texas. Main severe weather threat pushes east in the morning, but winter weather threat starts to develop as the upper low itself and its deformation zone moves across West Texas. (Sunday night through next Saturday) The upper level low will move off to the northeast of the Big Country by Sunday evening.
Low level ridging continues to gradually build into the Western Great Lakes region late this evening. Weak northern branch troughing will linger across the Great Lakes Region for the entirety of the forecast period. Primary Forecast Concerns/Key Messages: Quiet weather overall, nuisance snow flurries and snow showers continue Sunday and Monday: In terms of impactful weather, the forecast continues to remain quiet as aformentioned weak troughing pivots across the CWA tomorrow and Monday. Northern branch troughing will set up over the Great Lakes region with southern branch midlevel troughing over the lower half of the U.
Upper level ridge over the Western US will remain over the region through Sunday, with dry conditions and scattered high clouds. Temperatures will gradually warm a few degrees on Sunday and again on Monday as warmer air moves in from the west.
No sensible wx concerns through Monday morning with frontal boundary suppressed well south and weak low level ridging building east into the lower Great Lakes. Well advertised storm system taking the southerly route (TN Valley to Mid Atlantic) still could clip Portland IN to Lima OH with a period of light snow late Monday into Monday evening, though chances for measurable precip remain on the low side (NBM ~20%, Ensembles 40-50%).
Once again though, little moisture is associated with this one, and most of it will occur as rain first, leaving impacts to be on the low end.
MH Issued 252 PM CST Sat Feb 10 2024 Tonight through Sunday night: Influence from the upper-level ridge will continue through the remainder of the weekend keeping things cool and dry across southern WI. High pressure currently centered over the Northern Plains continues to gradually slide eastward, which has helped erode the thin layer stratus.
- The potential is increasing for rain to transition to a period of wet snow on Monday with a narrow band as colder air wraps around low pressure.
1055 PM CST Sat Feb 10 2024 (This evening through Sunday) Potent upper level low spinning its way east across the 4-corners area this afternoon will be the main weather maker over the next 24 to 36 hours for West Central Texas. Main severe weather threat pushes east in the morning, but winter weather threat starts to develop as the upper low itself and its deformation zone moves across West Texas.
1037 PM EST Sat Feb 10 2024 A weak low pressure system moving through the region will bring a chance of showers tonight for areas along and south of the Ohio River. A stronger low pressure system will affect the Ohio Valley Monday into Monday night, resulting in widespread rain and snow across the area. Period begins with potent low pressure tracking from the southwest. Carrying a large swath of deep moisture on the warm conveyor belt ahead of the low, this system will produce widespread precipitation, starting as rain during Monday.
1229 AM EST Sun Feb 11 2024 A ridge of high pressure briefly builds east into the region tonight through early Monday.
1253 AM EST Sun Feb 11 2024 A weak low pressure system moving through the region will bring a chance of showers tonight for areas along and south of the Ohio River. A stronger low pressure system will affect the Ohio Valley Monday into Monday night, resulting in widespread rain and snow across the area. Period begins with potent low pressure tracking from the southwest. Carrying a large swath of deep moisture on the warm conveyor belt ahead of the low, this system will produce widespread precipitation, starting as rain during Monday.
(Sunday through Monday) On Sunday, our forecast area will be in between an upper ridge well offshore of the FL east coast and an intensifying storm system over the southern Plains. The southern Plains system will track E over the Lower MS River Valley region Monday. Its associated cold front will track eastward over AL, the FL panhandle, and the eastern Gulf of Mex during the day.
The visibility grids and resultingly, the patchy freezing fog wording in the weather grid, was the main update made. A warm front will move west to east across northeast MT tonight, with elevations above 3,000 feet expected to have southwest to west winds at times tonight. There is moderate to high (50 to 60 percent) confidence elevations below 2,500 feet in the Missouri and Milk River valleys will see areas of freezing fog tonight. The reasoning is based on pattern recognition of nocturnal warm fronts passing through the area. Low dewpoint depressions and cold air in valleys are expected to keep any freezing fog in place through late morning. This freezing fog is expected to dissipate with a west wind mixing down into valley locations by early afternoon.
Otherwise the weather the next few days will be on the cooler side but overall very low impact and with lots of sunshine.
Low level thermal profiles are supportive of a rain/snow mix, however the stronger lift(more dynamic cooling) and being a Sunday night into early Monday morning event has potential to cool the lower levels.
Temperatures are currently in the lower 70s with dew points in the upper 60s. There is also some dry air present in the lowest levels from the surface up to ~900 mb. From synopsis, an expansive high pressure cell centered over the western North Atlantic between Bermuda and the Bahamas will continue to slide slowly eastward overnight through Monday.
Tonight and Sunday The latest RAP analysis and satellite/radar imagery show Wisconsin positioned between high pressure over the northern Plains and low pressure over far northern Quebec. Northwest winds continue to advect in a cooler airmass as well as cloud cover. As the high drifts southeast towards the western Great Lakes, forecast challenges mainly revolve around cloud cover and temperatures. High pressure will slide southeast from the northern Plains to the mid-Mississippi Valley over the next 24 hours.
110 AM MST Sun Feb 11 2024 - Dry and warmer today as high pressure moves over the state. High pressure covers the area briefly today. Places like the Bighorn Basin and Johnson County may see temperatures around 10 degrees warmer than yesterday. Most mountains will also see highs 10 to 20 degrees warmer today. The high pressure is short-lived. A Canadian trough dips down tonight, flattening the ridge and bringing increasing clouds. Precipitation chances increase for northwest Wyoming and the northern Bighorn Mountains late this evening as the trough approaches. Light snow chances continue through the day Monday, with chances spreading for much of far western Wyoming as the trough dips lower.
On a broader scale, water vapor imagery shows a strong upper level trough/low across the Four Corner region. Towards the end of the week there is some hint in ensemble guidance for a downward trend in temperatures behind a cold front dropping from Canada, bringing the arrival of a cooler airmass behind it. A mid-level trough is swinging through the Northern Plains with a few snow showers and the will continue well north of the area.
The first of these disturbances is progged to drop southeastward across Upper Michigan on Sunday, weakening any ridging in the upper levels.