Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
- Meteorological Overview: The embedded wave responsible for the cooler temperatures and precipitation is beginning to exit eastward early this morning and should be well east of the area by the evening. Cooler temperatures remain in most areas today but begin to trend closer to normal, especially in Southwest Montana where the cooler air struggled to reach with this previous system. Lingering moisture, sufficiently warm surface temperatures, and forcing from the troughing will support scattered shower and thunderstorm development by early afternoon across the Hi-Line.
(Today through Thursday) An elongated west-east 500mb ridge axis will be overhead today, which will promote another day of hot and humid conditions. Due to the ridge weakening and a northward surge in tropical moisture, there should be more in the way of shower and thunderstorm activity, but focused south of the 20 corridor the way things currently stand.
With the high pressure associated with these storms moving east into the four corners region, widespread but light precipitation currently persists and will into the early morning hours of Wednesday. The highest probabilities for severe weather are concentrated near the New Mexico border.
(Today through Thursday afternoon) Rain chances continue to decrease through the Short Term period as ridging starts to build back into the region. While a pop-up shower or storm is still possible outside of the influence of the higher terrain (due to mesoscale influences), coverage would be so limited that mentionable rain chances were largely excluded from the forecast at this time. Lows bottom out in the low-to-mid 70s for most.
412 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 - Markedly cooler midweek temperatures with highs 15 to 20 degrees below normal today and 10 to 15 degrees below normal Thursday. With the upper trough and the cloud cover, temperatures will be 15 to 20 degrees below climo averages this afternoon, topping out only in the 60s. Return flow begins to develop by 18z as the high slowly shifts east into MN and a warm front develops along the southwestern SD/NE border, extending off a Rocky Mountain low in Wyoming.
614 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 - Dry and cooler today and tomorrow as high pressure settles across the region.
Overnight lows bottom out in the low to mid 70s for most.
Warm and humid overnight with lows in the lower 70s.
- Very warm and humid conditions today with maximum heat indices in the lower 90s for the first half of the day.
111 PM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025 A series of very weak troughs and fronts will impact Eastern NC this week with Bermuda high pressure anchored offshore. The high builds into Eastern NC late week through the weekend with dangerous heat and humidity. - Hot and humid with scattered showers and thunderstorms Latest analysis shows high pressure offshore with weak troughing inland. Hot and muggy again with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s, and heat indices in the lower 100s.
Upper troughing to the north through the Pacific Northwest is suppressing high pressure over our region today. Inland temperatures are forecast to be a few degrees cooler Thursday as the trough to the north slightly deepens. The low-level inversion has strengthened, and will remain strong to moderately strong this week.
1005 AM MDT Wed Jul 16 2025 - Cooler and drier today. Expect cooler and drier weather today behind a cold front that passed through the region last night. The ridge will begin to amplify once again on Thursday. We will see a return of low to mid 90s across the lower elevations.
West to northwest flow continues today with dry conditions as a trough remains over southern British Columbia.
A broad ridge off the Carolina coast is building west a bit today, so there is some synoptic scale suppression in the Piedmont and central VA areas. The ridge is also providing southwesterly flow, so most storms that form today will have a southwesterly component to their motion. Most storm activity will occur along or west of the Blue Ridge where the influence of said ridge is not as strong and convection can occur more freely. The heaviest action will be further north into the Alleghany Front of the Appalachians and above, owing to the more northerly location of the boundary and the encroaching ridge to the southeast. Expect even warmer temps on Thursday, and Heat indices to approach 100F in the Piedmont.
222 PM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025 High pressure will build into the area tonight.
1229 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 - Widely scattered afternoon and overnight storms are expected along a southward sagging cold front. The mid/upper ridge over the Lower Mississippi Valley area is progged to amplify on Fri while retrograding over the Southern Plains. VFR conditions are expected for the entire area this afternoon prior to a slowly moving cold front approaching from the northwest. Models suggest thunderstorm development along the front late this afternoon or early evening in central Kansas with storms then impacting all sites overnight as the cold front slowly moves southeast although confidence is not high regarding this scenario.
From synopsis, an area of low pressure will continue to slide westward along the northern Gulf coast. Meanwhile, a strong area of high pressure will build westward across the North Atlantic towards the Florida Peninsula, supporting freshening east to southeast breezes over the next several days. As a second, weak area of high pressure builds over the eastern Gulf for the second half of the weekend, easterly breezes will slacken, becoming light to gentle. This is also the lowest temperature ever recorded in July at Key West.
Cooler afternoon temperatures with a slow warming trend going into the weekend.
(Today through Thursday night) We'll be watching a weak cold front to our north this evening for the potential to generate some storms across mainly the northern Panhandles, some of which could be strong/marginally severe. Latest satellite & mesoanalysis observations show the Panhandles situated between high pressure systems over the Four Corners and the SE CONUS, with a deep trough to our north. The aforementioned front will sag south through the afternoon hours, eventually reaching our northern counties with a cooler and quite moist environment in its wake.
330 PM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025 High pressure builds into Eastern NC late week through the weekend with dangerous heat and humidity.
Swrly sfc winds acrs the Srn Cntrl US and H500 high pressure bcmg centered over the FA wl contribute to temps once again climbing to near or at the century mark over portions of the FA. Upper level high pressure will continue to be in control with generally light and variable winds expected.
249 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 - Scattered showers and storms possible this evening to overnight along the cold front.
It ultimately looks like this boundary will be in the Highway 36 to I-70 corridor by the afternoon. High freezing levels and slow storm motions or even training of storms will lead to locally very heavy rainfall. Winds gradually shift more northerly as a cold front pushes south of the terminals.
Thankfully, the disturbance in the Gulf (Invest 93L) will begin to slightly suppress the upper-level ridge into the weekend, allowing for temperatures to "fall" back into the low-90s.
1230 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 - Dry and cooler today and tomorrow as high pressure settles across the region.
210 PM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025 Weak upper ridging will continue to break down today, leading to lower daytime temperatures and scattered shower/storms during the afternoon and evening. Upper ridging then returns for the late week and this weekend, bringing warming temperatures, muggy conditions, and more typical shower/storm chances. Much of the hi-res guidance suggests the activity begins to diminish after about 5 or 6 pm as an inverted trough associated with a low along the Gulf coast pivots further westward. Some weak lee side troughing may linger in the region into Thursday as a low continues across the eastern Gulf.
First things first, an upper low located southwest of KAQQ at noontime is moving west over the northern Gulf on the south side of high pressure over the Southeast.
- Decreasing clouds this evening and overnight with partly sunny, dry, and cool conditions on Thursday with afternoon highs in the low to mid 70s.
A dry pattern continues across Deep South Texas with high pressure generally in place along the lower Texas coast.
- Moldan /Issued 853 AM MDT Wed Jul 16 2025/ - Meteorological Overview: The embedded wave responsible for the cooler temperatures and precipitation is beginning to exit eastward early this morning and should be well east of the area by the evening. Cooler temperatures remain in most areas today but begin to trend closer to normal, especially in Southwest Montana where the cooler air struggled to reach with this previous system. Lingering moisture, sufficiently warm surface temperatures, and forcing from the troughing will support scattered shower and thunderstorm development by early afternoon across the Hi-Line.
(Rest of today and tonight) Mid-level ridging will continue to hang around the southern CONUS today and our area will be on the western periphery of this feature. A disturbance will move through this evening, which will help push a cold front into the area late tonight.
240 PM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025 - Hot and humid conditions through the remainder of today with heat indices in the lower to middle 90s expected.
The most recognizable feature on satellite this afternoon is the spin of the weak low pressure disturbance over the western Florida panhandle. The midlevel ridge centered over the western Atlantic will expand its grip farther westward across the area as the aforementioned weak low moves toward the southeastern Louisiana coast. As such, high temperatures are likely to be a couple of degrees warmer than today, ranging from the low to mid 90s areawide outside of the mountains.
This would lead to a much cooler day with highs in the 70s and 80s depending on cloud cover.
From synopsis, an area of low pressure will continue to slide westward along the northern Gulf coast. Meanwhile, a strong area of high pressure will build westward across the North Atlantic towards the Florida Peninsula, supporting freshening east to southeast breezes over the next several days. As a second, weak area of high pressure builds over the eastern Gulf for the second half of the weekend, easterly breezes will slacken, becoming light to gentle.
149 PM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025 A southeast/south low-level flow is in place across the local area this afternoon as low pressure (AL93) moves westward along the northern Gulf coast region.
Water vapor imagery this afternoon shows a trough crossing the northern Rockies/Plains, contributing to widespread showers/light rain over much of our area. Associated cold front is now well south of the region, with northerly/easterly flow contributing to record cool temperatures for mid-July.
8 inches (near climo), as the trough moves westward, those values are expected to increase to 2. At this point, significant development of the low pressure isn't expected, but can't be entirely ruled out. The upper trough axis is expected to track westward along the coast tonight and Thursday, and be over western Louisiana by Thursday evening.
832 PM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025 Weak upper ridging will continue to break down today, leading to lower daytime temperatures and scattered shower/storms during the afternoon and evening. Upper ridging then returns for the late week and this weekend, bringing warming temperatures, muggy conditions, and more typical shower/storm chances. Weak subsidence and dry advection aloft has overspread the area this evening, quickly diminishing any shower-storms as ridging extends across the area from the Atlantic high. Some weak lee side troughing may linger in the region into Thursday as a low continues across the eastern Gulf.
622 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 - An upper ridge overhead will limit cloud cover and thunderstorm activity this afternoon allowing afternoon highs to climb into the mid to upper 90s.
634 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 - Scattered showers and storms possible this evening to overnight along the cold front.
A surface through lower level Atlantic pressure ridge stretches westward across Florida and the southeastern United States. Expect temperatures to be seasonably warm with lows in the lower 80s and dew points remaining in the mid to upper 70s. Robust surface through lower level ridging stretches westward across Florida and is driving gentle to moderate east to southeasterly breezes on Keys waters overnight.
On Thursday, moisture returns as area of low pressure continues to move west away from the peninsula. An area of low pressure to the north will support showers and storms again on Thursday with chances increasing through the day.
Breezy southeasterly winds have set up this morning as the local pressure gradient remains pinched between Atlantic high pressure and a westward-moving broad low pressure in the northern Gulf. Abundant sunshine today will offer a hotter day through the rest of the afternoon as temperatures rise into the lower 90s inland and upper 80s at the coast.
711 PM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025 High pressure builds into Eastern NC late week through the weekend with dangerous heat and humidity.
Tomorrow, a low pressure center aloft with move northeastward from off the coast of northern Baja into southern Arizona as high pressure located over central Texas intensifies. The low pressure will also push some moisture out of our area sending into into northern Arizona and New Mexico decreasing PWATs to 1. Towards the end of the week into the weekend, the low pressure center aloft will weaken and push northward into central California. The high pressure over central Texas will continue to intensify shifting wind directions to the southwest in southern Arizona.
651 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 A dry pattern continues across Deep South Texas with high pressure generally in place along the lower Texas coast.
Daytime highs will be in the low to mid 90s but the lingering high dewpoints will push us into making it feel more like it's 100-107 degrees.
Persistent upper level high pressure will continue to provide broad subsidence across Southern Texas. The National Hurricane Center continues to monitor a low pressure system over the Northeastern Gulf with a 40% chance of tropical cyclone development. Regardless of development, this system is not currently expected to have a significant impact on Deep South Texas, though an increase in swell and rip current risk along the Lower Texas Coast may occur.
The heat issues will continue into Thursday as ample sunshine in the morning will push highs into the low to mid 90s, with higher dewpoints pushing heat index values into the 100-108 degree range -- and several locations in northern Alabama climbing above 105 degrees.
344 AM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025 - Drying out and cooler today with highs in the mid 70s, but we'll warm back into the 80s and lower 90s Friday through the weekend.
There continues to be some question on how far south showers/storms will occur which will likely dependent on where the boundaries stall this afternoon but current thoughts are still generally near and north of I-40 with the highest chances in northern OK. Temperatures are expected to range from the low 90s in N OK to the mid/upper 90s along the Red River.
246 AM EDT Thu Jul 17 2025 Bermuda High Pressure will remain off the coast through this weekend.
331 AM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025 - Decreasing clouds after noon, dry, and cool conditions on today with highs in the low to mid 70s.
1203 AM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025 - An upper ridge overhead will limit cloud cover and thunderstorm activity this afternoon allowing afternoon highs to climb into the mid to upper 90s.
- Cooler on Thursday with highs in the lower to mid 70s, but we quickly warm back up with 80s Friday and mid 80s to lower 90s for the weekend. On Thursday, the cooler Canadian air mass currently overspreading our area will be fully in place, with high temperatures in the 70s; roughly 10-15 degrees below normal. Low-level warm advection occurring along and south of that boundary will result in warmer daytime temperatures, with highs bouncing back into the 80s. The 12z global models are in reasonably good agreement in showing the intensification of a subtropical high centered over the lower MS Valley into Ozark Plateau region. Associated height rises/ridging aloft is forecast across the mid MO Valley, which will translate to warmer temperatures and potentially drier weather.
The area south of Interstate 70 will once again have the highest threat for heavy rain and flash flooding.
(This evening through Thursday) An upper level ridge centered east of Florida will expand into Texas, resulting in hot and dry conditiions across the region.
We have a bit of a persistent troughing off the Pacific Coast, sandwiched between a strong high pressure over the northern Pacific and a deepening and migrating high pressure over the central and western CONUS. There is a bit of influence from the southeast as a nudge of monsoonal moisture meets the edge of the Pacific trough somewhere near Mono, Lyon, and Mineral counties to kick off daily chances of 10-20% for showers and storms each afternoon.
(Today through Friday) Quiet weather continues today as high pressure slowly strengthens over our area, with a repeating pattern of morning clouds and afternoon clearing.
Portions of the lowlands are once again expected to fell very hot, with apparent temperatures rising into the upper 90s. Around mid week, the front slowly lifts north as a ridge builds in from the southwest.
Cooler temperatures are also expected through the rest of the week. A weak trough sitting off the coast of Baja California is prevalent in mid-level WV imagery. This sits in conjunction with general ridging over New Mexico and Texas. We are seeing activity firing along the higher terrain sites as of 1430 MST. The low pressure system continues to meander northward and we will see another round of convection initiate around 1200-1300 MST tomorrow. This is complicated by the fact that the latest hi-res model runs are picking up a trend where dry mid-level air wraps around the cyclone and begins to intrude northern AZ.
pdf High pressure ridge from the Western Atlantic builds westward across the local area along with a southerly steering flow at the surface. Convection should end by midnight across inland SE GA and expect fair skies during the overnight hours with lows in the lower/middle 70s inland and upper 70s/near 80F along the Atlantic Coast. Max temps will remain at slightly above normal levels with highs in the lower/middle 90s inland and around 90F along the Atlantic Coast, these temps combined with dew points generally in the middle 70s should push peak heat indices to around 105F, still likely just below heat advisory criteria.
- Brief return of less humid conditions Thursday/Friday behind a cold front. Outside of these pop up storms this afternoon the focus then becomes the development of convection along a north to south orientated cold front over western IL/WI that will move eastward this evening. In the wake of the cool front, drier and cooler airmass will advect into the area for Thursday and Friday. Surface dew points will go from low to mid 70s today to the low 60s to upper 50s by Thursday evening. Unfortunately, this relief will be somewhat short- lived as a southeastern ridge squeezes some moisture and warmer temperatures northward against a zonal flow that will be centered over our heads.
- High pressure today with sunny skies before chances for rain return Friday. A high pressure sets up over the Northland today, with sunny skies and light winds. A cold air mass accompanied with the high pressure will keep temperatures below normal in the low 70s across the area. As the high pressure departs, flow in the mid levels will switch to the southwest, helping temperatures to increase over the weekend into the upper 70s and 80s, closer to normal. After the high passes, we settle into zonal westerly flow aloft for the next few days.
1201 AM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025 - Cooler and less humid Thursday and Friday, before active weather returns this weekend.
Discussion: Currently early this morning, broad upper-level ridging remains in place across the southeastern U. But this is still uncertain due to the strength of high pressure to our south.
(Rest of today and tonight) Mid-level ridging will continue to hang around the southern CONUS today and our area will be on the western periphery of this feature. A disturbance will move through this evening, which will help push a cold front into the area late tonight. Similar mid- level ridging pattern will exist Thursday, which will result in mid to upper 90s across the area.
Thanks to the thermal trough and dry airmass, this will bring back hot, dry and breezy to windy conditions tomorrow through Friday across our region. Daytime RHs for both days will drop to the low and mid teens with breezy to gusty winds over the Cascade Gaps during afternoon and evening hours.
Models show high pressure centered over the ARKLATEX creeping ever so slightly northwest over our area, bringing drier and warmer conditions with it.
209 AM EDT Thu Jul 17 2025 High pressure builds into Eastern NC through the weekend with dangerous heat and humidity. Offshore high pressure will remain anchored offshore with weak troughing over central NC.
333 AM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025 - Cooler temperatures and mostly dry conditions today and Friday with temperatures in the low 70s today and mid to upper 70s for Friday.
145 AM EDT Thu Jul 17 2025 Upper level ridging returns for the remainder of the week and this weekend. Key Message(s): - Above normal temperatures with isolated showers/storms Ridging builds over the area today which will largely suppress convective development and allow temperatures a few degrees warmer than the past few days. Subsidence beneath the ridge favors a mainly dry forecast with just a few isolated showers or thunderstorms possible in the afternoon. The HREF shows the lowest convective coverage in the past few days adding confidence to the forecast. Afternoon dewpoints will likely drop to the low 70s or lower despite NBM forecast values of the mid to upper 70s.
Early morning satellite imagery/RAP analysis showed the circulation around a rather flattened 593dam ridge just to our north and a weak 590dam low spinning just to our south over southeast Louisiana. The potential for this low to develop into a tropical cyclone has been lowered this morning. Our local radars indicated that the current convection associated with the low was just skirting our southern most zones in the form of light showers. Circulation around the low will help send deep moisture northward into our CWA.
Some isolated flooding remains the main concern where any training of the higher rates takes place.
(Today through Friday afternoon) WV imagery this morning shows an upper ridge running from the eastern half of Texas to Georgia/South Carolina. To the west, an upper trough sits off the coast of Baja. Friday, the Gulf Coast ridge builds west into the area, and the upward trend in thicknesses resumes. Convection will be once again confined to the west of the Pecos, but perhaps a little farther west due to the encroachment of the ridge.
(Today and tonight) Upper ridging will continue to expand in from the east, with with temperatures increasing 3 to 4 degrees today. Lee trough will not be as strong today, with south wind gusts of mainly up to 20 mph in the afternoon.
(Today through Friday) An upper low will move from the western Atlantic over the Peninsula by tonight. Forcing from the surface level will likely be a combination of coastal convergence from the background winds on the western periphery of the building subtropical ridge, outflow from convection over the Bahamas this morning, and a little bit of seabreeze influence. On Friday, the strong mid-level ridge that developed under the upper-level +PV anomaly will shift overhead. Ensembles continue to show the strength of the ridge at the top end of climatology for this time of year, with accompanying mid-level dry air. The low- level ridging is also quite impressive, with heights in the 90th percentile vs climo.