Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Increasing westerlies will suppress the subtropical ridge responsible for the recent warm and dry conditions, and greater storm coverage is expected in association with the frontal boundary located to our northwest. Any disturbances that ripple out of this longwave trough will provide the support for diurnal activity to organize and propagate eastward across the forecast area heading into Thursday evening. Heading into the next work week, a large scale trough will begin to set up across the eastern CONUS. This trough will help push a cool front and dry air into our CWA with rain chances starting to decrease heading into Wednesday.
This drier air combined with ridge building in aloft, should maintain dry conditions across east central Florida into the afternoon. Mid level troughing offshore the southeast U. is nudged seaward as ridging extends across the Gulf of Mexico and over Florida. Ridging in place promotes warming temperatures and drying conditions today and tomorrow. Afternoon temperatures warm into the low 90s across the interior today, remaining in the mid to upper 80s along and east of I-95.
Temperatures will be cooler today, with afternoon highs ranging from the mid 70s to lower 80s.
538 AM MDT Wed May 22 2024 - Warmer and mostly sunny today.
424 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024 - Gale Warning was extended until 6 AM for the southern two thirds of the open waters of Lake Michigan, as well as for the nearshore waters south of the North Point Light, for gusty southwest winds behind the cold front.
910 AM EDT Wed May 22 2024 Offshore high pressure will bring warmer temperatures for the mid to late week period. At the surface, it looks like the Piedmont trough may also aid in higher coverage inland. A cold front approaches towards the end of the period with drier air behind it. High pressure across the area will push more offshore with winds staying fairly light due to the weak pressure gradient.
Tempeeratures will be cooler today, with afternoon highs ranging from the mid 70s to lower 80s.
354 AM MDT Wed May 22 2024 - Warmer and mostly sunny today.
532 AM MDT Wed May 22 2024 - Warmer and drier today and Thursday, with elevated to critical fire weather conditions possible by Thursday.
Quiet weather remains on tap for today, with high temperatures ranging from the low-70s to upper-80s across the majority of northern Arizona's High Country. Zonal flow remains in place over Arizona today, keeping temperatures about the same as yesterday, maybe just a degree or two warmer.
DS/12 (Now through Thursday) Upper level ridging will shift slightly south out over the Gulf tonight and Thursday, with nearly zonal flow aloft expected over our area. Although moisture will be increasing, high pressure will remain firm across our area, so any weather associated with the frontal boundary will weaken as well as remain to our west and northwest. Lows tonight will range from the low/mid 60s inland to the lower 70s closer to the coast, and mid 70s along the immediate beaches and barrier islands.
314 PM EDT Wed May 22 2024 High pressure will retreat offshore tonight and Thursday.
119 PM EDT Wed May 22 2024 A summerlike pattern today into Thursday as high pressure settles off the Southeast coast. A cold front approaches from the northwest Thursday with daily chances for showers and thunderstorms to end the week and into the weekend. Isolated to scattered showers/tstms are expected to develop over the higher terrain to the W, and there is a low probability (20-30%) of some of this activity drifting into the NE Piedmont later this afternoon and early evening. The upper ridge begins to break down some Thursday as an upper trough and cold front approach from the NW. The upper trough and cold front will provide a trigger for showers/tstms in a moderately unstable airmass with strong surface heating and dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s.
124 PM EDT Wed May 22 2024 Offshore high pressure will bring warmer temperatures for the mid to late week period. At the surface, it looks like the Piedmont trough may also aid in higher coverage inland. A cold front approaches towards the end of the period with drier air behind it. High pressure across the area will push more offshore with winds staying fairly light due to the weak pressure gradient.
(This evening through Thursday night) Ridging continues to dominate the area for the most part with dry conditions expect.
(This afternoon through Thursday) A couple rounds of thunderstorms will pass within close proximity to the northwestern portions of Central Alabama over the next 24 hours as a northeast to southwest oriented cold front slowly drifts towards the Mid-South region. The mid-level ridge axis has shifted east of the area allowing low-level flow to take on more of a south to southwesterly heading. Deeper moisture still resides to our west, so our dewpoints will mix down into the lower to mid 60s this afternoon and again tomorrow while lower 70s dewpoints are forecast over northern Mississippi and the Tennessee Valley.
352 PM EDT Wed May 22 2024 After a day of unseasonable warmth, a cold front approaching from the west will bring scattered showers and a few possible thunderstorms overnight into tomorrow morning. Chances of precipitation continue to increase heading into this evening and the overnight hours as a pre-frontal trough ahead of an approaching cold front swings through the region, bringing a line of showers with embedded thunderstorms to the region. By Thursday morning, the surface cold front will be moving across the region, with showers coming to an end Thursday afternoon. Temperatures during the day will be cooler in comparison to today's warmth, although high temperatures will still climb into the upper 70s to mid 50s. Drier conditions will return behind the cold front, with overnight low temperatures in the 50s.
HEAVY SNOW IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS LEMHI COUNTY INTO. The winter storm for the higher elevations remains on track from previous forecasts.
The feature of interest will be a cold front draped just NW of us triggering severe storms in AR/MS/TN.
High temperatures will range from the upper 80s along the east coast to temperatures in the low to mid 90s across southwestern Florida. At the surface, ridging situated over the southeastern United States will allow for relatively light winds across the region.
1137 AM MDT Wed May 22 2024 - Warmer and mostly sunny today.
Upper ridging will continue to flatten and transition to zonal flow by tomorrow. Meanwhile, at the surface, a cold front will sag into the Tennessee Valley and become stationary.
Temperatures are forecast to dip below seasonal averages this weekend as an upper level trough impacts the region.
An upper low over the Cascades will continue moving southeast today. Showers will decrease today as an area of low pressure over the region moves eastward.
From synopsis, a weak area of low pressure in the vicinity of the Bahamas will continue to decay as it slides northeastward in the North Atlantic.
1118 AM EDT Wed May 22 2024 High pressure will dominate the region through early Thursday keeping fair and dry conditions in place along with warming temperatures.
Ridge axis of high pressure over the west Atlantic will remain extended across the region into tomorrow, with ridge aloft extended from the Gulf of Mexico and northeast across the state.
(The rest of today ) Ongoing storms are aligned along and north of a cold front which is make slow but steady progress southward through SE OK and west central AR.
- Warmer temperatures return briefly tomorrow with a chance of showers and thunderstorms overnight ahead of a cold front.
(This evening through Thursday) The cold front that moved through this morning has stalled this afternoon stretching along a line from Sterling City to Abilene to north of Fort Worth. The morning dewpoints in the 60s will begin to mix eastward through the day, which will clear out the low clouds by mid- morning. As the next upper low swings over the Northern Rockies tomorrow, upper level divergence will develop over the far southeast Texas Panhandle and northern Rolling Plains and give way to large scale lift.
(Now through Thursday) Upper level ridging will shift slightly south out over the Gulf tonight and Thursday, with nearly zonal flow aloft expected over our area. Although moisture will be increasing, high pressure will remain firm across our area, so any weather associated with the frontal boundary will weaken as well as remain to our west and northwest. Lows tonight will range from the low/mid 60s inland to the lower 70s closer to the coast, and mid 70s along the immediate beaches and barrier islands.
East to Southeast steering flow around the high pressure centered over the GA/SC region is combining with PWATs around 1.
The high probability for convection shifts to a pre- frontal trough laying farther west and the approach of the surface cold front in conjunction with the upper trough axis lifting through the Great Lakes. KEY MESSAGES: - Showers and thunderstorms are likely to continue ahead of a cold front Thursday. _____________________________________________________________ The surface cold front will stall just north of the I-70 corridor Thursday morning as the upper level trough lifts farther north of the region and broader SW flow develops aloft.
A cold front will move in tomorrow afternoon and increase chances for showers and storms. Generally dry and quiet weather will persist across the forecast area tomorrow as an upper-level trough begins to dig in from the north-northwest. High temperatures will be in the 70s across the plains, though much cooler across the higher terrain. As the upper trough moves down from the north tomorrow afternoon, it will push a cold front into Colorado, which will serve to quickly cool down temperatures and initiate showers and storms across the mountains. Best chance for stronger storms will be over the far eastern zones, along the axis of the cold front as it moves through.
The low pressure system currently in Idaho will continue makings its way eastward over the next 24 hours, bringing with it mainly strong winds, but also cooler temperatures, mainly to northern and western portions of the CWA. In addition, the precipitation will heavily depend on the overall track of the low. As of now, models bring the center of the low along the northern Wyoming border, keeping southeast Wyoming and western Nebraska mostly dry. Opted to keep the High Wind Watch in effect instead of upgrading it because the probabilities of high winds is still very marginal and heavily tied to the frontal timing and positioning. Internal guidance did trend upward in the high wind chances near Coleman and Bordeaux along Interstate 25 with 40 to 60 percent probabilities.
The peninsula is currently wedged between a mid level trough the extends over the Western Atlantic and a ridge that is building across the Gulf. The mid level ridge will continue to move over through the end of the week, further suppressing any rain chances. Unfortunately the low to mid 90s look to hang around for the foreseeable future. This will remain the trend everyday until the high pressure moves east later this week.
1224 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024 (The rest of today ) Ongoing storms are aligned along and north of a cold front which is make slow but steady progress southward through SE OK and west central AR.
Tonight and Thursday Unsettled weather will continue across the region throughout the remainder of the day as an upper low centered over eastern WA this afternoon continues to dip down into the region. Clouds, showers and some thunderstorms out ahead of the low will continue to impact the region with the best rain chances expected over the next 12 hours or so. Some rural spots may flirt with, or drop below, the freezing mark for a brief period. By daybreak Thursday, the low will be centered over eastern Idaho and we can expect clouds and precip to linger for much of the first half of the day.
Discussion: A line of strong to severe storms streches along a pre-frontal trough from central KY to West TN. Convection is expected to develop tomorrow morning to our west in association with this trough and upper jet streak.
Above-normal heights associated with the upper-level ridge will retreat southward over the Gulf of Mexico as broad longwave troughing dominates the western and central CONUS.
This drier air combined with ridge building in aloft, should maintain dry conditions across east central Florida into the afternoon.
109 PM PDT Wed May 22 2024 Breezy conditions across the region today as a trough exits.
Issued by National Weather Service Pueblo CO 1154 AM MDT Wed May 22 2024 - Warmer and drier today and Thursday, with elevated to critical fire weather conditions possible by Thursday.
The peninsula is currently wedged between a mid level trough the extends over the Western Atlantic and a ridge that is building across the Gulf. The mid level ridge will continue to move over through the end of the week, further suppressing any rain chances. Unfortunately the low to mid 90s look to hang around for the foreseeable future.
840 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024 (This afternoon through Thursday) A couple rounds of thunderstorms will pass within close proximity to the northwestern portions of Central Alabama over the next 24 hours as a northeast to southwest oriented cold front slowly drifts towards the Mid-South region. The mid-level ridge axis has shifted east of the area allowing low-level flow to take on more of a south to southwesterly heading. Deeper moisture still resides to our west, so our dewpoints will mix down into the lower to mid 60s this afternoon and again tomorrow while lower 70s dewpoints are forecast over northern Mississippi and the Tennessee Valley.
It's a dry and quiet evening across east central Florida with high pressure in place over the Southeastern US. Favorable boating conditions are forecast with high pressure in place over the western Atlantic. Ridge axis of high pressure over the west Atlantic will remain extended across the region into tomorrow, with ridge aloft extended from the Gulf of Mexico and northeast across the state.
Temperatures are running roughly 5 degrees cooler than compared to this time yesterday in the Valley, but remain on track to climb up into the mid-upper 80s. A low pressure system moving across the Pacific Northwest will tighten the pressure gradient resulting in another round of gusty north winds tonight into tomorrow morning. The National Blend of Models (NBM) indicates a 40-70% chance of gusts greater than 30 mph, with the highest probabilities (greater than 60%) between Red Bluff and Vacaville along the I-5 corridor.
Currently - A surface through lower level Atlantic ridge stretches west southwestward across the southeast and Florida. Sharp ridging remains in place aloft. This sharp ridging has contributed to falling precipitable water. Lower level ridging will remain in place to our north and keep winds broadly out of the east. Atlantic ridging stretching west southwestward across the southeastern United States will maintain light to gentle broadly easterly breezes on Keys waters through the overnight period.
303 PM MDT Wed May 22 2024 - Breezy/windy and warmer Thursday with critical fire weather conditions over the Sangres/Wets.
An upper level low pressure system has moved past the area, but northwest flow behind the system will guide conditions this evening. This flow will also bring cooler nighttime temperatures, with lows in the mid 20s to low 30s east of the Cascades and in the low 30s to low 40s west of the Cascades. A weak ridge will bring seasonal warmth on Thursday and a weak trough will follow, lingering over the area to start the weekend.
The development of this low-pressure system needs to be closely monitored for potential snow impacts in the valleys. HEAVY SNOW IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS LEMHI COUNTY INTO DISCUSSION. The winter storm for the higher elevations remains on track from previous forecasts.
609 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024 (This evening through Thursday) Northerly winds will begin to weaken this evening as the upper trough ejects into the Great Lakes. Storm coverage is very much in question; the primary forcing mechanism will be a trough moving into the central/northern Plains, and secondary forcing from the STJ will pass through central Texas. Overall, the risk for severe weather at any one place tomorrow is on the low-to-medium side due to questions about storm coverage, but interests in the path of any of those storms tomorrow evening will want to pay very close attention.
534 PM MDT Wed May 22 2024 - Breezy/windy and warmer Thursday with critical fire weather conditions over the Sangres/Wets.
This trend should continue over the next several days as high pressure builds over the region.
An upper level trough will move across central ID tonight and into SE Idaho by Thursday morning. As the trough moves into SE Idaho, showers will mainly be focused on the Blue Mountains in OR, the central ID mountains, and the southern Twin Falls County highlands.
Cooler temperatures tonight will increase to near-normals for the coming days. Winds this afternoon are currently gusting to 25 mph across much of the area, with locally higher gusts on ridgetops reporting around 30 mph. Inland, drier conditions and clear skies will allow for much cooler conditions than last night, with frost possible in interior Humboldt and Trinity counties. Onshore flow is expected to keep temperatures in the high 30s to low 40s along the coast, though lighter than anticipated winds could lower the temperature further. Winds are forecast to subside tomorrow as a ridge builds in.
(00Z TAFs) VFR and dry conditions are forecast through the TAF period with high pressure in place over the Southeastern US. Ridge axis of high pressure over the west Atlantic will remain extended across the region into tomorrow, with ridge aloft extended from the Gulf of Mexico and northeast across the state.
627 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024 (This evening through Thursday) The cold front that moved through this morning has stalled this afternoon stretching along a line from Sterling City to Abilene to north of Fort Worth. The morning dewpoints in the 60s will begin to mix eastward through the day, which will clear out the low clouds by mid- morning. As the next upper low swings over the Northern Rockies tomorrow, upper level divergence will develop over the far southeast Texas Panhandle and northern Rolling Plains and give way to large scale lift.
Weak high pressure will build aloft for drier and somewhat warmer conditions on Thursday.
Overnight, temperatures will rest in the upper 60s across the area, with coastal locations expected to rest in the lower 70s. East to Southeast steering flow around the high pressure centered over the GA/SC region is combining with PWATs around 1.
621 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024 (This evening through Thursday night) Ridging continues to dominate the area for the most part with dry conditions expect.
HEAVY SNOW IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS LEMHI COUNTY INTO SOUTHWEST AND WEST-CENTRAL MONTANA THIS MORNING.
330 AM EDT Thu May 23 2024 High pressure will remain off the SE coast today.
(Today through Friday) 500 mb high pressure centered over the Bay of Campeche, and extended over the BRO CWFA, will continue to be the dominant weather feature through the period.
Despite the more favorable near surface based moisture/instability in the lower AR River valley, weak low level shear will limit the tornado threat.
1132 PM EDT Wed May 22 2024 *Showers & t-storms continue Thursday especially over south central PA; strong storm possible in the Lower Susq Valley *Rain chances trend lower into Friday before increasing over Memorial Day weekend T-storm intensity and coverage will diminish overnight as the best forcing/height falls lift to the north and low level stability increases with the loss of daytime heating. Will maintain lower POPs into Thursday morning associated with the arrival of a weakening cold front and a few rumbles of thunder are possible as elevated convection persists. Rain chances trend lower from north to south into Friday as upper level ridging builds over the area.
358 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024 - Warmer temperatures return today with thunderstorms and showers developing ahead of a cold front this evening. At the surface, warm front will move north through the region today allowing temperatures to rebound into the upper 70s and lower 80s. Additional development is expected along and ahead of the approaching cold front over the Dakotas this evening.
416 AM EDT Thu May 23 2024 High pressure ridges across the area through the weekend, with hot and mostly dry conditions continuing. The ridge axis shifts south for the weekend, with mainly easterly winds and afternoon onshore seabreezes shifting to a predominant west to southwest flow for the weekend.
1137 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024 (This evening through Thursday night) Ridging continues to dominate the area for the most part with dry conditions expect.
then a cold front will be pushing through the CWA Friday evening.
447 AM EDT Thu May 23 2024 A cold front over Northwestern PA will push southeast through the region by early this afternoon preceded by an area of showers and thunderstorms. A ridge of high pressure will slide east across the state Friday brining a nice day with dry conditions and comfortably low humidity.
411 AM EDT Thu May 23 2024 - Cooler and less humid weather settling in through Friday.
1236 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024 (This evening through Friday) An upper ridge continues over the southeast U. with several low pressure systems along the northern U. One upper low will move northeast through the Great Lakes as another one moves into the Rockies Thursday. This low then moves into the upper Midwest Friday as the ridge in the south flattens out. The cold front has moved south into central Arkansas. The highest risk of severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening will be in the southwest and central sections which is under an Enhanced Risk for severe thunderstorms. Highs Thursday will be in the upper 70s to upper 80s and in the lower 80s to lower 90s Friday.
117 AM EDT Thu May 23 2024 - Cooler and less humid weather settling in through Friday.
When thunder roars, go indoors! THURSDAY: Southerly winds will increase throughout the morning as a low pressure system approaches from the west, tightening the SPG. At the same time the cold front will be approaching from the west, forcing convection initiation. However, at the same time the low level jet kicks into gear, which increases the chance that a few strong to severe gusts could make it to the ground.
1244 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024 (This evening through Thursday) The cold front that moved through this morning has stalled this afternoon stretching along a line from Sterling City to Abilene to north of Fort Worth. The morning dewpoints in the 60s will begin to mix eastward through the day, which will clear out the low clouds by mid- morning. As the next upper low swings over the Northern Rockies tomorrow, upper level divergence will develop over the far southeast Texas Panhandle and northern Rolling Plains and give way to large scale lift.
Discussion: A line of strong to severe storms stretches along a pre-frontal trough from central KY to West TN. Convection is expected to develop tomorrow morning to our west in association with this trough and upper jet streak.
-Cooler temperatures today, but still seasonable. Latest blended guidance is trying to find a happy medium, but is focusing the higher PoPs mainly south of I-70 this afternoon. Obviously a further south placement would keep the higher levels of instability/buoyancy further south, limiting storm development. KEY MESSAGES: - High pressure and brief ridging should keep the area dry Friday.
1101 PM EDT Wed May 22 2024 High pressure will persist into late week.
212 AM MDT Thu May 23 2024 - A cold front will be bring some isolated showers, maybe a quick storm, to the CO/WY border and the Continental Divide this afternoon and evening.