Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
119 PM EDT Mon Sep 30 2024 - Some fog potential early Tuesday morning as moisture is drawn north in advance of approaching cold front. Standard improvement in conditions mid-late morning Tuesday as light winds emerge from the southwest Tuesday downstream of an approaching cold front. Expansion of stratus so far early this morning has been subdued by the introduction of drier air working back west into the area from southern Ontario within northeast to east flow around high pressure. Better fog/stratus potential will set up overnight tonight as winds become southerly and low level moisture poised along the southern periphery of the Great Lakes works north through the area in advance of approaching cold front.
The southwestern axis of this low is primed to break off and devolve into a trough stretching into the Lower Mississippi River Valley tonight. Sfc analysis indicates high pressure across much of central CONUS pushing drier air into the area keeping weather quiet while sufficient low-level moisture will continue to support cloud cover over a majority of the area. This will aid temperatures tonight to be slightly warmer only dropping into the mid 60s. /KP/ The forecast remains on track, with a ridge building into the area and clearing skies and allowing for some more sunshine, subsequently warming our highs into the mid to high 80s F throughout the week.
By late in the night/ early tomorrow morning, a dry cold front will enter at least NE OK zones bringing a noticeable increase in winds and lower dewpoints behind it.
356 PM EDT Mon Sep 30 2024 An upper low will slowly track toward the area through Tuesday before exiting offshore.
Today has been a squeeze-play between the cloudiness of the upper low to the east, and the incoming cold front from the west. As of 2 PM, the cold front is stretched from western Minnesota through far western Iowa, through southeast Nebraska. Looking at forecast soundings, the arrival of the cold front around Midnight northwest to 4 AM southeast should limit the wind gust potential to around 30 kts, certainly a notable wind, but far less than what's occurring upstream in the Dakotas. We're choosing to address this through graphics and some mention in Fire weather forecasts, but given the cooler day Tuesday, GFDI values should remain below thresholds for headlines or enhanced wording (<very high).
1212 PM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024 (Today through Tuesday) A trough aloft pulls away over an amorphous pressure pattern at the surface today, then ridging aloft builds over our area while a surge of reinforcing high pressure at the surface moves into our area on Tuesday. The only impact from the change are breezy/gusty winds on Tuesday which in combination with the low humidities and drying vegetation may lead to locally elevated fire weather conditions.
NHC continues to monitor the western Caribbean for possible tropical cyclone development.
1259 PM EDT Mon Sep 30 2024 High pressure will remain over the area into early this week.
230 PM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024 * Cooler temperatures return to the region on Tuesday before more seasonal temperatures return through the weekend.
Scattered showers continue to develop currently along a trough axis that currently extends from Fayetteville, TN SW to around Columbus, MS. Combined with fairly strong vorticity at 500 mb moving slowly south with the upper level trough axis, this may help to keep cloud cover in place. Dewpoints will likely stay in the lower to mid 60s.
Cooler temperatures and recovering humidity should limit the fire weather threat after 00z, but we could still see an hour or two of near critical fire weather conditions in some areas before winds diminish.
Have extended the Coastal Flood Advisory for the Lower Cape Fear River through Tuesday night to cover expected minor flooding during Tuesday morning and Tuesday night high tides. Low pressure to the N will move slowly eastward through the period.
500 PM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024 - A cold front will move through the area this evening into the overnight period shifting winds to the north with an increase in speed - Dry conditions continue throughout the forecast. An upper level trough will move thorugh the Northern Plains and help push a cold front thorugh western Kansas tonight. This will be a dry cold front with no precipitation expected.
505 PM EDT Mon Sep 30 2024 - Showers will affect the area at times until a cold front passes on Tuesday night.
655 PM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024 * Cooler temperatures return to the region on Tuesday before more seasonal temperatures return through the weekend.
621 PM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024 - A cold front will come through the region tomorrow morning with gusty northwest winds, plummeting humidity levels, scattered clouds, and a few sprinkles. Tonight through tomorrow morning, the aforementioned cold front will sweep across the Great Lakes leading to an abrupt northwesterly wind shift. Humidity levels will also plummet behind the front, with dew points dropping from the mid 60s at daybreak to the lower 30s by evening.
739 PM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024 - A cold front moving across the region could bring some light rain through this evening. A cold front is marching east this afternoon and is easily picked out looking at the wind shift across the Brainerd Lakes region up through International Falls.
1016 PM EDT Mon Sep 30 2024 Upper level low pressure will weaken/fill as it drifts slowly east across the Central Appalachians tonight, before pushing east of the area late Tuesday.
822 PM EDT Mon Sep 30 2024 Upper level low pressure will weaken/fill as it drifts slowly east across the Central Appalachians tonight, before pushing east of the area late Tuesday.
Max temperatures are anticipated to warm roughly 10 degrees for Tuesday, compared to today, due to weak ridging aloft.
A band of deep tropical moisture over the Nature Coast allowed for scattered to numerous showers and storms to stream onshore there this afternoon, while ridging aloft and a drier air mass kept conditions largely rain free across the central portions of the forecast area. High pressure in the southwest Atlantic will maintain light flow with winds less than 10 kts and seas less than 2 feet through the middle of the week.
558 PM EDT Mon Sep 30 2024 A broad area of low pressure will persist over the region through Tuesday.
Otherwise, isolated showers will be possible ahead of a southeastward moving cold front tomorrow. High pressure will begin building over the region tomorrow, ahead of a cold frontal movement.
High pressure entrenched across much of the western United States will continue to promote dry and unseasonably hot conditions with record heat likely persisting into the end of the week and possibly into the weekend. An east-west oriented ridge axis will continue to dominate across the region. Ensemble guidance is showing signs of the center of the high strengthening again overhead for Fri/Sat which could bring temperatures returning at or slightly above the 110 mark. Other than the heat, we do have a little bit of moisture trapped under the ridge which is developing a few showers in the high country well north and east of the Phoenix valley. Dry and abnormally hot conditions will continue through this week as a strong area of high pressure sits overhead.
Upper level ridging continues to build into our area this afternoon for sunny skies and above normal temperatures.
552 PM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024 - Tuesday's cold front will bring breezy conditions and low humidity to the region. Diurnal cu has developed across much of the forecast area, driven by modest low-level moisture streaming off of the low and associated cloud cover over the Ohio River Valley. Despite these conditions, fog is expected to be more limited tonight due to the approaching cold front from the north providing too much mixing across our northern counties, and less near surface moisture from a day of sunshine and no precipitation. The passage of the cold front will be dry thanks to deep dry air across the region.
Currently - A surface through mid level ridge is aligned northeast of the Bahamas and stretches across the Florida Peninsula. Much of this increase is in the lower levels due to a disorganized wave moving through the northwestern Caribbean Sea. Short Term Update - Ridging will remain across the Florida peninsula through the overnight period. Drier air is set to move in through the lower levels later in the night. Expect lows to settle in the lower to mid 80s with dew points stuck in the upper 70s.
/Issued 1117 AM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024/ /This Afternoon through Tuesday/ An upper level ridge will nudge in from the west to start the week, keeping warm and rain-free weather across North and Central Texas. Afternoon highs will be mainly in the lower 90s both today and Tuesday, with a few places in Central Texas seeing middle 90s. A weak surface pressure gradient will keep winds light today, but northerly winds will increase slightly on Tuesday afternoon with the passage of a weak cold front.
617 PM EDT Mon Sep 30 2024 High pressure will stay over the region early this week.
624 PM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024 (Tonight through Tuesday night) Generally rain-free conditions and near to slightly above normal temperatures will continue through the short term period as weak mid level ridging builds across Deep South Texas. Despite a seasonably warm day Tuesday afternoon with highs in the low to mid 90s, limited precipitable water values will maintain comfortable conditions with heat indices mostly in the upper 90s.
613 PM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024 - Cold front moves through this evening, breezy overnight and cooler Tuesday. Current water vapor imagery shows our old upper low, partially associated with the remnants of Helene, still over the central Appalachians. Meanwhile, strong ridging is present over the southwestern CONUS while a vigorous upper trough is moving across the northern Plains and south-central Canada. This trough is pushing a cold front south and east across the Plains, with the front now moving into far NW Kansas. Cooler and much drier air will also move in behind the front, with that lack of moisture keeping any rain from developing. Temperatures stay in the low/mid 70s Tuesday, before dropping into the 40s Tuesday night as high pressure moves overhead and winds calm.
612 PM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024 * Cooler temperatures return to the region on Tuesday before more seasonal temperatures return through the weekend.
618 PM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024 (This evening through Tuesday) Generally north to north easterly flow aloft along with persistent upper-level high pressure across much of the area will result in continued warm and dry conditions through Tuesday. (Tuesday night through next Monday) Warm and dry conditions continue this week, but with cool mornings, as upper level ridging extending from the 4 corners region, brings subsidence conditions. A weak cold front Tuesday and perhaps again this weekend, may drop temperatures a couple degrees, but have little affect on the forecast.
933 PM EDT Mon Sep 30 2024 High pressure builds back into the area through Tuesday, bringing partly cloudy and mild conditions.
610 PM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024 (Tonight through Tuesday night) High pressure will continue to build over the area tonight, keeping our rain chances very low.
601 PM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024 - Gusty winds and cooler air are forecast behind a cold frontal passage tonight.
904 PM EDT Mon Sep 30 2024 A broad area of low pressure will persist over the region through Tuesday.
728 PM EDT Mon Sep 30 2024 High pressure builds back into the area through Tuesday, bringing partly cloudy and mild conditions.
A weak cold front will arrive tomorrow midday, leading to afternoon highs a few degrees cooler compared to today.
912 PM EDT Mon Sep 30 2024 High pressure will stay over the region through Tuesday.
A cooler, but still dry, airmass has moved into central and northern Utah, with little impact to southern Utah where record breaking heat persists. Dry conditions will persist with a gradual warming trend through the week as high pressure builds back into the area.
614 PM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024 (This afternoon through Tuesday night) A cold front now progressing through the central High Plains will slide through the Panhandles tonight and the South Plains before sunup. The cold front (cold in name only) will then enter the Permian Basin, reaching a Carlsbad-Kermit-Midland-Colorado City line just before sunrise, then south of the Pecos River by mid morning. Lows Tuesday night will be a touch cooler, ranging from the mid 40s at higher elevations to around 60 along the Rio Grande.
(The rest of tonight) Cold front continues to surge south across Kansas this evening, with expected timing remaining around 06-07z into far northeast OK and to northwest AR by 10-11z.
748 PM EDT Mon Sep 30 2024 An upper low will slowly track toward the area through Tuesday before exiting offshore.
630 PM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024 - Critical fire weather conditions this afternoon in western and central MN with gusty northwest winds and low humidities behind the cold front.
Otherwise, cloud cover will keep overnight lows in the lower 60s.
(This afternoon through Tuesday) Isolated shra have developed along a 500mb shear axis (ahead of a main trough) across portions of north GA. Isold shra possible again tomorrow as a 500mb trough shifts southward.
(Today and tonight) High pressure remains in place across west central Texas this morning, while a cold front is draped across the central Plains and the Panhandle. However, the coldest part of the airmass should remain over Kansas and Oklahoma so high temperatures should only be a few degrees cooler today; generally in the upper 80s. Winds should diminish overnight as the atmosphere decouples and high pressure fills in again behind the stalled front. Most locations should see light and variable winds, which should allow low temperatures to fall in to the low to mid 50s under clear skies.
345 AM EDT Tue Oct 1 2024 - Showers will affect the area at times until a cold front passes through eastern Kentucky tonight.
1230 AM CDT Tue Oct 1 2024 - A cold front will come through the region tomorrow morning with gusty northwest winds, plummeting humidity levels, scattered clouds, and a few sprinkles.
Above that, a more complex pattern was in play with a weak upper low heading NE across the LA/MS border. The high altitude moisture flow (with some denser cirrus) could somewhat damper fog formation under it somewhat. The aformentioned upper low should move across central Alabama today. If predawn lower clouds and/or fog does not become more prevalent, more sun would help boost high temperatures into the lower 80s.
1237 AM CDT Tue Oct 1 2024 (Tonight through Tuesday night) High pressure will continue to build over the area tonight, keeping our rain chances very low.
- Much cooler air will be enjoyed, for one day, on Tuesday.
This will finally scour out the remnant troughing from Helene, with dry northwest flow aloft developing in its wake. With a little less cloudcover in the afternoon due to subsidence, highs should be a little warmer than yesterday. A strong cold front is currently moving southeastward through the Midwest associated with a strong northern stream trough and an occluding extratropical cyclone over Hudson Bay. This will keep low temperatures on the mild side tonight, with warming temperatures and dry conditions for Wednesday as a mid-level ridge noses in from the Mid-South.
Expect we should see more sun today than yesterday for most people and the additional sunshine will help drive up temperatures around 5 degrees warmer than yesterday, mainly across the central and southern valley where more sun is expected.
- Winds Today 15 to 25 MPH and gusting as high as 35 MPH from the north and on the backside of a passing cold front. Fire weather concerns are the main story this evening as areas behind the cold front have been gusting as highs as 35 MPH with sustained northerly winds between 10 and 20 MPH. High pressure behind the cold front will continue to filter in Tuesday underneath weak northwest flow dampening the surface winds for the day.
130 AM EDT Tue Oct 1 2024 A broad area of low pressure will persist over the region through Tuesday. A dry cold front is forecasted to move through the region later Wednesday, followed by cooler high pressure through the rest of the week and possibly into the weekend. Lows are on track for the upper 60s inland the low 70s along the coast.
A cold front is marching east this afternoon and is easily picked out looking at the wind shift across the Brainerd Lakes region up through International Falls. A return of southerly flow out ahead of an approaching cold front will see temperatures soar to above normal.
153 AM MDT Tue Oct 1 2024 - Warmer/dry conditions and breezy in spots for today and Wednesday. It will be a warmer night with lows in the 40s and 50s. It will be breezy over parts of the area, but not over the low RH areas, so fire highlights will likely not be needed. Low temps will range from the low 30s NW to the low 40s central and E.
Utah and southwest Wyoming will remain under the influence of high pressure over the next several days.
1226 AM CDT Tue Oct 1 2024 (This evening through Tuesday) Generally north to north easterly flow aloft along with persistent upper-level high pressure across much of the area will result in continued warm and dry conditions through Tuesday.
So far today, we've seen some isolated, light rain showers and even a couple of thunderstorms across the higher terrain of northern Arizona. Otherwise, high pressure in place across northern Arizona will lead to another abnormally warm day, with high temperatures ranging from 10-20 degrees above average for October 1st. For the remainder of the week, high pressure will continue to dominate northern Arizona's weather.
- Warmer/dry conditions and breezy in spots for Tuesday and Wednesday. Warm advection over the high terrain should keep temps from falling much more in the mountains. Tuesday will be warmer w/ less wind, but there will still be mixed gusts on the order of 20-30 mph along the western foothills.
333 AM CDT Tue Oct 1 2024 An upper low is evident on satellite and resulting in isolated showers this morning. Patchy fog is also possible, but should be limited in the presence of the low.
1222 AM CDT Tue Oct 1 2024 (This afternoon through Tuesday night) A cold front now progressing through the central High Plains will slide through the Panhandles tonight and the South Plains before sunup. The cold front (cold in name only) will then enter the Permian Basin, reaching a Carlsbad-Kermit-Midland-Colorado City line just before sunrise, then south of the Pecos River by mid morning. Lows Tuesday night will be a touch cooler, ranging from the mid 40s at higher elevations to around 60 along the Rio Grande.
Atlantic high pressure continues to hold over southern portions of the peninsula accompanied by a relatively drier airmass. A mid-level trough will move across the southeastern United States tonight into Wednesday which will drag the front but the high pressure holds over the area which keeps the boundary from moving into southern Florida. High temperatures will reach the lower 90s but the lower dewpoints should allow the heat index values to remain below heat advisory criteria.
Skies will remain mostly clear and cause temperatures to rise above normal into the low to mid 90s with heat indices nearing 100 both today and Wednesday. Tonight into Wednesday, a band of PVA associated with the tailing end of a mid- level trough over the eastern CONUS will drape across the northern Gulf into South Texas.
303 AM EDT Tue Oct 1 2024 An upper level trough axis will be north of the area today with isolated showers possible.
Mild with bit of easterly winds today and Tuesday, as high pressure remains over the region. Weak front will push inland Tuesday, with cooler weather for Wednesday.
1155 PM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024 - Critical fire weather conditions this afternoon in western and central MN with gusty northwest winds and low humidities behind the cold front. - Cooler Tuesday, but elevated fire weather conditions possible again on Wednesday - Dry weather for the rest of the period with temperatures fluctuating from normal to above-normal. A cold front is making steady progress across MN today, with a band of accas present on satellite ahead of the front. We have left the RFW as is so far today, with the critical fire weather environment coming in behind the cold front.
321 AM EDT Tue Oct 1 2024 - Showers will affect the area at times until a cold front passes on tonight.
Upper low over the southern Appalachians should open up and lift northeastward over the next day or so, with the main trough axis finally beginning to shift eastward late Tuesday into Tuesday night as well. Overall, it's mainly a persistence forecast for the local weather with lows in the mid to upper 60s north and in the low to mid 70s south.
335 AM EDT Tue Oct 1 2024 Precipitation chances continue through Wednesday morning with a departing upper low and cold front.
An attendant surface cold front was just nosing into northwest Iowa and will track through the forecast area this evening into tonight. Temps take a step back in the cooler airmass proceeding the front, however still not far off seasonal norms with highs in the 60s to near 70. This will push afternoon min RH values comfortably into the low to mid 20 percent range. The warmer temps and dry air should easily push min RH values back into the 20% range, perhaps lower given that models are likely overzealous with the rate of mid to late day moisture return within the mean southerly low level flow.
Record high temperatures and dry weather will continue through the week as a strong area of high pressure remains parked over the Desert Southwest.
The stronger wind gusts overnight will diminish through the day as the aforementioned ridge of high pressure works into the area. Temperatures tonight will initially begin cooling with clear skies and light winds; however, as the ridge of high pressure continues dropping south into the mid- Mississippi River Valley, the pressure gradient increasing from the northwest as a trough works through Manitoba and the Dakotas.
A weak trough axis across the Southeast states will slowly progress southward through the day and interact with deep layer moisture already in place across Northeast Florida to trigger scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms that will be aided by diurnal heating into the mid/upper 80s under partly sunny skies. Any late day convection should fade around sunset this evening as trough axis continues to push southward into NE FL with a few possible lingering showers through the overnight hours, but overall expect some partial clearing across SE GA and dry conditions with lows in the mid/upper 60s there, while lower to middle 70s are expected along the Atlantic Coast and NE FL.
437 AM EDT Tue Oct 1 2024 Precipitation chances continue through Wednesday morning with a departing upper low and cold front.
Morning lows in the lower to mid 60s north of I-10, upper 60s to near 70 further south, and afternoon highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s.
Record high temperatures will continue into the first week of October as a strong area of high pressure remains parked over the Desert Southwest.
A weak frontal trough/boundary will shift southward into north Florida Tuesday and may settle into the northern waters on Wednesday, with wind flow becoming onshore Wed afternoon and remaining onshore through late week while gradually increasing.
- A dry cold front will pass through on Wednesday. A cold front is passing through the area today as a trough slides by to the north. This cold front has brought much cooler temperatures to the area, but it actually lowered RH/dew points once it passed.
230 AM CDT Tue Oct 1 2024 - Cooler today with highs in the lower to middle 70s. This Morning: An upper-level trough translates across the Plains today with an associated cold front sliding southeast through the region. The lowest humidities will be focused across southeast Kansas into southwest Missouri. Otherwise, a cooler day is expected across the area with highs in the lower to middle 70s and ample sunshine.