Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
ILN will remain situated in between two broad areas of ridging and quiet conditions continue overnight. CONUS continues to be dominated by two broad areas of ridging: one anchored in the southwest near the Four Corners region and the other over New England. Thursday night remains similarly quiet, though with warmer overnight lows falling to the mid/upper 60s. The ridge intensifies a bit through the weekend, supporting high temperatures into the upper 80s and lower 90s, but low-level moisture values are not high enough to anticipate heat advisory criteria.
742 PM EDT Wed Aug 6 2025 High pressure remains the dominant feature this week. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms may deliver brief downpours near mountain ridges over the next couple of days, but much of the area will continue to see dry weather. Today and Thursday will be a near rinse and repeat of yesterday as we remain under the influence of high pressure. However, with high pressure overhead and weak flow, expect smoke will meander across the region both today and Thursday, though concentrations should remain highest across central and southern areas. Temperatures are anticipated to drop into the lower 50s to mid 60s by the end of the night.
222 PM PDT Wed Aug 6 2025 - Cooler with showers and thunderstorms Wednesday into Thursday. A couple systems move by the region Wednesday and Thursday, bringing showers and thunderstorms and cooler temperatures, with highs mainly in the 70s. The best shear/cape overlap is in southeastern WA/southern ID Panhandle around 3-8 pm Thursday just downstream the base of the trough.
559 PM CDT Wed Aug 6 2025 Updated at 558 PM CDT Wed Aug 6 2025 - A slight warming trend will begin on Wednesday with afternoon highs in the low to mid 90s through the end of the week.
814 PM EDT Wed Aug 6 2025 * High pressure ridging south into PA from Quebec Canada will maintain dry weather and seasonable temperatures through the upcoming weekend. This seems possible with a weakness in the 7H ridging under the right- entrance region of a jetlet at 3H. The low pressure center which could form off the NC coast is likely to be more extra-tropical in nature according to NHC. It should not impact PA at all under the protection of our persistent ridging. Isolated showers will persist into the late evening across the lower susq valley (MDT/LNS), but should have little impact. High pressure ridging southward from Canada will keep higher dewpoints and the risk of showers at bay for now.
Mixing is quite limited to our east across Georgia, where a wedge of cooler air remains in the surface to 925 mb layer.
Prepare for another active day tomorrow! From synopsis, a broad area of high pressure across the Gulf and Florida Peninsula will continue to consolidate as a weak tropical wave approaches the Keys from the western North Atlantic.
905 PM EDT Wed Aug 6 2025 Canadian high pressure that will extend across the Middle Atlantic this week will be dampened and dammed over the Carolinas by disturbances in very moist, southwesterly flow aloft. Overnight, expect only periods of light rain and drizzle due to continued influence of the nearby upper trough. Upper level trough will slowly shifts across the Mid-Atlantic region Thursday with an abundance of moisture along the coast.
643 PM CDT Wed Aug 6 2025 The ridge axis and attendant 'heat dome' will continue to drift eastward from upstream.
Tomorrow, easterly transport winds will generate the highest afternoon PoPs and totals on the western coast, as the western sea- breeze is generally held in place. Tomorrow, as that weak area of low pressure still sits on the southeastern U. Late this week and into the weekend, atmospheric moisture persists under the weak inverted trough and scattered to numerous showers and storms continue each afternoon and evening. High pressure will remain over the waters with light winds around 10 knots or less and slight seas.
- Persistent cool, wet pattern continues As this strong wedge stays parked over the region on Thursday, a upper-level ridge will slowing edge itself into the Mid-Atlantic. As the aformentioned upper-level trough axis shifts eastward Thursday, drier air will start to impinge on the western FA. Even though a few thunderstorms are possible in the eastern FA, the cooler temperatures in the low levels of the atmosphere will hinder deep convection from forming. Expect highs to be in the low to mid 80s with lows overnight in the mid to upper 60s. - Warming temps but rain chances remain elevated As this upper-level ridge axis continues to move through the FA, drier air will also continue to advect into the region from the north.
- Increasingly warmer and more humid conditions are expected into the weekend with highs near 90 and heat indices into the mid 90s.
652 PM CDT Wed Aug 6 2025 (This evening through Thursday night) We are in a fairly stagnant upper level weather pattern with high pressure over the Four Corners, a very weak trough extending from the Great Lakes into the northcentral Gulf, and the Bermuda high extending into the eastern Gulf. The rain will balance with partly cloudy skies to give us fairly normal high temperatures this afternoon and tomorrow in the low 90s.
- Increasingly warmer and more humid conditions are expected into the weekend with highs near 90 and heat indices into the mid 90s. Far NE Indiana/NW Ohio should also be on western periphery of departing low level ridge axis with some favorable vertical hydrolapse profiles for fog formation.
Seeing some cloud cover in advance of an upper level trough that will track across the region on Thursday. A more westerly flow with the trough passage will shift the smoke plume south of the ID/NV border on Thursday. Thursday will also see temperatures 4-8 degrees cooler than today and breezy west- northwest winds gusting 20 to 30 mph.
451 PM PDT Wed Aug 6 2025 - Cooler with showers and thunderstorms Wednesday into Thursday. A couple systems move by the region Wednesday and Thursday, bringing showers and thunderstorms and cooler temperatures, with highs mainly in the 70s. The best shear/cape overlap is in southeastern WA/southern ID Panhandle around 3-8 pm Thursday just downstream the base of the trough.
152 AM EDT Thu Aug 7 2025 * High pressure ridging south into PA from Quebec Canada will maintain dry weather and seasonable temperatures through the upcoming weekend. This seems possible with a weakness in the 7H ridging under the right- entrance region of a jetlet at 3H. The low pressure center which could form off the NC coast is likely to be more extra-tropical in nature according to NHC. It should not impact PA at all under the protection of our persistent ridging.
918 PM PDT Wed Aug 6 2025 High pressure will continue to bring warmer weather conditions to Southern California. A high pressure ridge centered over New Mexico will expand over the desert southwest through Thursday. Statistical model probabilities are high for temperatures to reach 105 degrees in parts of the Inland Empire on Thursday and 115 on Thursday in the lower deserts. The high will begin to weaken by Friday, which will ease temperatures by a few degrees, but conditions will remain quite warm.
227 AM EDT Thu Aug 7 2025 High pressure slowly slides to the south and east of Maine through Friday night.
137 AM EDT Thu Aug 7 2025 High pressure to the east will persist into the weekend. Temperatures will gradually get warmer each day. Daytime temperatures will be just a shade warmer but there is little day to day change in dew points. At the same time, upper level ridging builds across the region.
Most indications say we're set to repeat the feat again both today and tomorrow, thanks to the currently 600dam high pressure system centered to our west over New Mexico.
Upper-level ridge centered across the Texas Panhandle to continue to provide subsident northerly flow across the ArkLaTex on Thursday. At the surface, a ridge of high pressure extending across the Ohio and Mississippi River Valleys into the ArkLaTex will support at least one more day of slightly cooler dewpoints sufficient enough to keep widespread heat index values at or below 105 degrees.
(Today through Friday) Wedge of high pressure along the East Coast is weaker but still present this morning. Flow aloft will be northerly to northeasterly today as a ridge axis builds eastward towards the Mid-Mississippi Valley from the 600 decameter anticyclone over New Mexico. A trough remains across Georgia and the Carolinas with an embedded upper low and an axis extending southwestward to the Gulf. Highs will be warmer than recent days but still a couple degrees below normal given the low-level easterly flow. On Friday the mid-level ridge axis will continue to build eastward towards the Lower Ohio Valley, while southern portions of the Southeast trough begin to form a weak/broad upper low over the northern Gulf. With another surge of dry easterly flow at low- levels, PoPs will remain on the lower side again, with high temperatures similar to today.
120 AM MDT Thu Aug 7 2025 - Breezy Today With Storms North and East - Critical Fire Weather Conditions Today Due to Wind & Humidity - Much Cooler Temperatures To Round Out the Week We are looking at some virga this morning across portions of central and eastern Idaho. That said, the overall pattern today will be on the breezy side as a cold front sweeps across the area in conjunction with a strong area of low pressure. Probability forecasts put a 15-30% chance of exceeding 45 mph, which is the low-end threshold for a WIND ADVISORY. The most noticeable thing tomorrow will be cooler temperatures. Lows tonight and Friday night in the typical colder spots will drop below freezing.
1013 PM MDT Wed Aug 6 2025 - Isolated Showers & Storms Return Late Tonight Through Friday - Red Flag Warning - Critical to Near Critical Fire Weather Conditions - Much Cooler Weather By Friday An area of low pressure will move across Washington state, northern Idaho, and through Montana over the next few days which will bring a cold front through Eastern Idaho late Thursday into early Friday. This system will increase our rain/storm chances a bit, but for many this will be a dry cold frontal passage. This cold front will bring some relief from the heat as highs go from low to mid 90s in the Snake River Plain today to mid and upper 80s Thursday to upper 70s by Friday.
An upper trough axis just to the east of the area on Thursday will again help force some convection during the afternoon and evening hours (20-40%).
Discussion: Through Friday, we will have a weak upper trough over the region, with a large ridge over the desert SW and in the western Atlantic. Under this trough, there will be little in the way of synoptic forcing for organized precip, but there will be some diurnal instability. Over the weekend, the Atlantic ridge starts to shift westward and become more prominent over the Southeast.
Highs are forecast to be a bit warmer today, topping out in the mid 80s to around 90 degrees.
1252 AM CDT Thu Aug 7 2025 The ridge axis and attendant 'heat dome' will continue to drift eastward from upstream.
106 AM PDT Thu Aug 7 2025 - Cooler with showers and thunderstorms for Thursday. The next system is expected mid morning on Thursday, bringing showers and thunderstorms and cooler temperatures, with highs mainly in the 70s.
Afternoon temperatures in the lower to middle 90s, with heat index values approaching 100 degrees.
We finally got to see some partly cloudy skies across most of the area yesterday but the low clouds are pushing back in this morning. Will see the low clouds scatter out again Today with high temps rising into the middle 80s across most of the area.
Widening our view, water vapour loop had southwest flow over the CWA in response to upper trough slipping southeast into the northwest CONUS from southwest Canada. Today through Friday, upper trough moves through the northern plains. Thermal ridge peaks pushing temperatures well into the 90s with some 100s from southwest into central SD likely (HREF >80% chance). Cold front will become focus for strong/severe convection Friday afternoon/evening, but with highest threat east of the CWA. Temperatures Friday will be tricky with cold front modulating readings, so confidence is lower.
(This evening through Thursday) Strong upper ridging, centered over New Mexico, will continue to bring hot, dry conditions.
This boundary sits between high pressure over the mid-Atlantic states and high pressure in the central gulf. A little farther to the east, models continue to develop an area of low pressure off the Carolina coastline. This area of low pressure has a 30 percent chance of tropical development over the next 7 days as it slowly lifts to the north-northeast.
239 AM EDT Thu Aug 7 2025 High pressure to our north will continue to ridge into the Carolinas through the weekend, with weak low pressure offshore maintaining unsettled weather. The offshore low pressure is expected to move off to the northeast over the weekend. Wedge of high pressure inland and weak low pressure/trough currently just offshore will be the main features through tonight.
- It turns cooler for Friday, with temperatures below freezing in higher valleys of Southwest MT. /Issued 847 PM MDT Wed Aug 6 2025/ Showers are increasing in coverage this evening as an initial disturbance moves across the Northern Rockies ahead of the upper level trough digging into the Pacific NW. On Thursday, a stronger upper level trof approaches from the west, with the potential for a few stronger storms during the late afternoon and evening hours. On Friday, as the upper level trof exits the area, cooler temperatures will move into the CWA for a short time.
1040 PM CDT Wed Aug 6 2025 - Hot Thursday and Friday - Cold front arrives this weekend. Early this afternoon, a strong mid/upper ridge was centered over the southwestern CONUS with weak troughing present across the Great Lakes and Ohio River Valley. Over the next couple of days, much of the central plains will really begin to feel the influence of the southwest CONUS ridge. While 500 mb heights will be somewhat hampered by an upper trough digging into the northern plains later this week, mid- level temperatures suggest much of the central and south-central Kansas could see their hottest days of the year both Thursday and Friday. The central plains will begin to feel the influence of the aforementioned trough that will progress across the northern plains this weekend.
(Today and tonight) Another hot and dry day is forecast across West Central Texas as upper level ridging across the Southwest U.
--------------------------------------------------------------- High pressure covering the New England region will continue to influence the upper Ohio River Valley today. Subtle moisture advection from the Atlantic within the lower level easterly flow may be enough to spawn an isolated shower over the eastern high terrain of Tucker County, aided by the easterly upslope flow. KEY MESSAGES: - High pressure continues the recent dry trend.
Have maintained a dry forecast with ridging remaining dominant, although lake breeze south of Lake Ontario could develop some isolated afternoon convection. There should be a slight uptick in temperatures with most highs getting into the lower to mid 80s, but humidity levels stay on the lower side. An amplifying longwave pattern expected over the weekend with a strong 594mb ridge slowly building off the Southeast coast as a trough digs into the northern Plains.
Aloft, an upper ridge was situated between the Four Corners and Srn Plains.
- Cold front arrives this weekend bringing slightly increased rain chances and slightly cooler temperatures. Currently a sizable ridge centered over the Desert Southwest is leading to upper level northwesterly flow. Early this morning we could see some isolated shower and thunderstorm activity as the low-level jet interacts with that feature. For the rest of today and Friday heat will be the main story as the upper-level ridge will extend across the Central Plains. This means afternoon high temperatures for today and Friday will reach into the lower 100s for much of central and south- central Kansas. Locations across southeastern Kansas continue to see dew points in the lower 70s and as such will only top out in the middle to upper 90s.
Updated at 1029 PM CDT Wed Aug 6 2025 - A slight warming trend will continue Thursday with afternoon highs in the low to mid 90s through the end of the week.
230 AM EDT Thu Aug 7 2025 High pressure slowly slides to the south and east of Maine through Friday night.
415 AM EDT Thu Aug 7 2025 * High pressure ridging southwest into PA from the New England States and Quebec Canada will maintain dry weather, seasonable temperatures and moderate humidity through the upcoming weekend. Areas of stratus were noted on the ridges of Central PA and the Alleghenies while some areas of fog were forming in the deeper valleys of northern PA containing rivers/large streams. The low pressure center which could form off the NC coast is likely to be more extra-tropical in nature according to NHC. It should not impact PA at all under the protection of our persistent ridging.
High pressure will dominate the region through the forecast period, resulting in hot daytime temperatures and mostly dry conditions. A strong high pressure system aloft was centered over New Mexico with a trough over the west coast of the United States during the afternoon. Hot daytime temperatures will continue with an Extreme Heat Warning for the lower elevations of the Grand Canyon and Yavapai County.
Lingering SE CONUS troughing in the mid-upper levels sandwiched between ridges over NM/TX, Quebec, and Bermuda have provided us with about as consistently near average weather for August as you could get this week. Highs remain stuck in the low 90s with low temps hovering near the dew point temperatures in the low to mid 70s each night, and there's no real indication that this will change to round out the end of the week.
Today, the ridge will peak overhead as a low pressure system moves into the Pacific Northwest. This system amplifies the ridge over us increasing the dry air advection from the desert southwest. In addition to marginal gusty winds the Dryline is expected to push east following the apex of the ridge. Friday, The front side of an upper level low will begin to suppress the upper level ridge cooling us off a little bit. Temperatures will remain in the 80's and 90's however it will still be cooler than Thursday.
325 AM CDT Thu Aug 7 2025 - Typical summer warmth and humidity will prevail into the weekend with the highest afternoon heat index values flirting with 100 F.
557 AM CDT Thu Aug 7 2025 - Typical summer warmth and humidity will prevail into the weekend with the highest afternoon heat index values flirting with 100 F.
Hernandez Previous Discussion: /Through Friday Night/ Of the next 7 days, today and tomorrow will be the hottest as the ridge of high pressure strengthens over NM.
952 AM EDT Thu Aug 7 2025 * High pressure ridging southwest into PA from the New England States and Quebec Canada will maintain dry weather, seasonable temperatures and moderate humidity through the upcoming weekend. The low pressure center which could form off the NC coast is likely to be more extra-tropical in nature according to NHC. It should not impact PA at all under the protection of our persistent ridging.
Lee side low pressure along the Rockies in Wyoming this morning will also push east in western SD through this evening. Ahead of this low, southeast flow at the sfc will draw up dewpoints in the lower 70s along with some hotter air. The airmass under the ridge is also very capped with H700 temps rising to +14 to +17C from the James Valley west by afternoon. On Friday, a cold front sweeps through the region.
If the cloud cover lingers for much of the morning and potentially into the afternoon, which is a possibility, this could very much limit the high temperatures for some areas today. Most indications say we're set to repeat the feat again both today and tomorrow, thanks to the currently 600dam high pressure system centered to our west over New Mexico.
From synopsis, a broad area of high pressure across the Gulf and Florida Peninsula will continue to consolidate, as a weak tropical wave noses into the Keys coastal waters from the western North Atlantic.
Transient low pressure will support another afternoon of breezy winds today with westerly gusts peaking around 25-35 mph. Ridges and wind prone areas may even see gusts near 40 mph in mid- to late afternoon.
630 AM CDT Thu Aug 7 2025 (Today through Friday) The Subtropical Ridge remains centered over New Mexico today and Friday. Subsidence underneath the Ridge along with a drying airmass keep rain out of the forecast.
453 AM MDT Thu Aug 7 2025 KEY MESSAGES: - Low pressure will rotate showers and thunderstorms across the region today.
604 AM CDT Thu Aug 7 2025 Updated at 603 AM CDT Thu Aug 7 2025 - A slight warming trend will continue Thursday with afternoon highs in the low to mid 90s through the end of the week.
433 AM PDT Thu Aug 7 2025 - Cooler with showers and thunderstorms for Thursday. The next system is expected mid morning on Thursday, bringing showers and thunderstorms and cooler temperatures, with highs mainly in the 70s.
Light southerly flow around this high today will carry any lingering light smoke across our region back northward over Lake Ontario and to southern Canada. Have maintained a dry forecast with ridging remaining dominant, although lake breeze south of Lake Ontario could develop some isolated afternoon convection. There should be a slight uptick in temperatures with most highs getting into the lower to mid 80s, but humidity levels stay on the lower side. An amplifying longwave pattern expected over the weekend with a strong 594mb ridge slowly building off the Southeast coast as a trough digs into the northern Plains.
630 AM EDT Thu Aug 7 2025 High pressure to the east will persist into the weekend. Temperatures will gradually get warmer each day. Daytime temperatures will be just a shade warmer but there is little day to day change in dew points. At the same time, upper level ridging builds across the region.
648 AM EDT Thu Aug 7 2025 High pressure to our north will continue to ridge into the Carolinas through the weekend, with weak low pressure offshore maintaining unsettled weather. The offshore low pressure is expected to move off to the northeast over the weekend. Wedge of high pressure inland and weak low pressure/trough currently just offshore will be the main features through tonight.
(This evening through Friday) Not much on radar this afternoon as high pressure is building and the wedge is retreating. On Friday the mid-level ridge axis will continue to build eastward towards the Lower Ohio Valley, while southern portions of the Southeast trough begin to form a weak/broad upper low over the northern Gulf. With another surge of dry easterly flow at the lowest levels, PoPs are on the lower side again, with high temperatures.
1132 AM MDT Thu Aug 7 2025 - Breezy Today With Storms North and East - Critical Fire Weather Conditions Today Due to Wind & Humidity - Much Cooler Temperatures To Round Out the Week We are looking at some virga this morning across portions of central and eastern Idaho. That said, the overall pattern today will be on the breezy side as a cold front sweeps across the area in conjunction with a strong area of low pressure. Probability forecasts put a 15-30% chance of exceeding 45 mph, which is the low-end threshold for a WIND ADVISORY. The most noticeable thing tomorrow will be cooler temperatures. Lows tonight and Friday night in the typical colder spots will drop below freezing.
A stout upper-level ridge of high pressure over the Desert Southwest will break down over the next few days and allow a more zonal flow pattern to develop over the northern CONUS.
Even as the weak tropical wave moves into the Gulf away from the Keys and high pressure takes back over our pattern, a wet end of the week is on tap.