Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
330 AM EDT Mon Jun 23 2025 - Continued hot today - Many chances for rain this week - Warm all week - Continued hot today Despite drifting eastward, the large dome of high pressure over the Ohio Valley will hold sway over our weather, and particularly, our temperatures; yet another day with heat indices around 100. - Many chances for rain this week Our weather will be influenced in large part this week by a cold front currently stretching from near INL southwest to LIC. The cold front will lean into the cwa Tuesday and then become quasi stationary for a few days.
The strength of an H5 ridge of high pressure that runs 592-596 DM thru much of the week puts us in the E-SAT 30 yr Return Interval for such a strong, season opening pattern. Thus the weekend highs in the low-mid 90s with dew points in the low-mid 70s just really look like there is not a lot of diurnal variation thru the course of the week.
Otherwise another very mild night, with overnight lows remaining in the low to mid 70s. A strong area of high pressure centered over the Mid Atlantic will continue to gradually build westward into the Mid/Deep South. With the Tennessee Valley situated along the western edge of this high, light southerly flow will help to reinforce this warm/humid air mass as seen by dewpoints remaining in the low to mid 70s. Ample sunshine during the morning and early afternoon will allow highs to reach the low to mid 90s once again by the afternoon.
High heat and moisture levels will remain underneath the upper ridge. The highest dewpts will be over the SERN half or so of the area. which will result in the highest heat index values. some chances for isolated afternoon convection will return to the forecast this Mon on the SWRN periphery of the upper ridge.
Ahead of the high, breezy westerly winds are expected this morning before diminishing from west to east this afternoon. This translates to highs in the 60s for most of the state, though the southeast may see some readings in the low 70s.
Otherwise, the Atlc ridge axis remains situated north of ECFL. Aloft, strong mid-level ridging remains centered across the mid Atlc states. Aloft, the ridging weakens during the period while retrograding toward the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys. The ridge will also be undercut by an upper low moving toward the FL east coast that will push across the peninsula late Wed/Wed night into early Thu. At the surface, ridging to the north also weakens during this period, though we will maintain the onshore flow. The low-level ridge gradually tries to re-establish itself across central/south-central FL during this time.
325 AM EDT Mon Jun 23 2025 Hot and humid conditions, with dangerous heat index values, are expected during the next few days under the continued influence of a strong upper ridge. Rain chances increase mid to late week as ridging begins to break down. Temperatures will remain warm through the night with lows only reaching into the low to mid 70s. The center of the strong upper level ridge will shift over the Mid-Atlantic today. Temperatures rise as a result into the mid to upper 90s, with heat indices rising into the low triple digits and dewpoints in the mid 60s to low 70s.
1003 PM MDT Sun Jun 22 2025 - Chance of thunderstorms this afternoon and evening across southern SD - Unsettled this week with seasonable temperatures and a slight risk (2 out of 5) of severe thunderstorms Tuesday Upper low over ID places the northern plains in SW flow, with an upper jet streak to our west. At the surface, low pressure is over south central SD, with breezy NW winds across the CWA. With persistent low clouds and cooler temperatures across southwestern SD, confidence is low on severe storms developing there this afternoon/evening. High pressure moves in Monday, resulting in a mild and calm day.
158 AM PDT Mon Jun 23 2025 * Cooler than average temperatures with overall dry conditions continue through Tuesday. Upper longwave trough continues to be in the area, but it is very slowly moving east. The presence of the low pressure system along with building instability in the Sierra from the Tahoe Basin and southward, keeps the possibility of showers and thunderstorms today and tomorrow. By midweek, the trough finally starts leaving the area as it moves east. Westerly winds return, especially for mountain ridges and slopes. Furthermore, afternoon temperatures will hover in the low 90s.
Ware (Monday through Tuesday night) The general synoptic pattern will remain basically unchanged Monday and Tuesday, with expansive ridging across the eastern US and a trough across the west. The trough will remain far enough west that the vast majority of forcing will be west/north of our area during this period.
(Through Monday) A large ridge over the eastern US keeping temperatures notably above normal. Though the overall coverage of storms will be a bit limited this afternoon, some stronger gusts are possible with D-CAPE values still on the higher side. (Monday night through Tuesday night) A large upper level high will dominate the weather pattern across the area through the beginning of the week. This is around normal for this time of year, but with dry mid- levels and subsident conditions on the periphery of the high, expect fairly sparse, if any, shower and thunderstorm coverage on Tuesday afternoon.
143 AM EDT Mon Jun 23 2025 High pressure will remain across the Southeast U. It will remain warm tonight with lows dropping into the lower 70s inland to around 80 at the beaches and Downtown Charleston. The mid-levels will consist of a very strong ridge over the eastern half of the U.
A large upper level ridge will continue to build over the Eastern U. The core of the most intense heat will occur over the Ohio Valley and Mid Atlantic, but Georgia's proximity to the ridge will ensure that we get in on some of the action.
Also increased the low temperatures for a few of the northern mountain valleys where a moist boundary layer and cloud cover will limit temperature falls tonight.
206 AM MDT Mon Jun 23 2025 KEY MESSAGES: - Warmer temperatures will return through the middle part of the week but chances for showers and thunderstorms will continue at times. Skies will clear this morning and bright sun today will bring warmer temperatures to the area.
An upper level ridge axis extending from central Texas, through the mid south, to the mid atlantic region will be in place for much of this forecast period. (06Z TAFS) High pressure will bring VFR conds to the state through the TAF period.
The main story for today is a cold front which has reached near I-35 early this morning and will push into western Wisconsin and southeast Minnesota through the day.
(Today and tonight) West Central Texas will remain in between upper level high pressure to our east and an upper level trough out west through mid week. This pattern will result in dry and warm conditions the through the short term period, with highs today mainly in the low to mid 90s, although some upper 90s are expected across western portions of the Big Country and Concho Valley.
Sprawling mid and upper level ridge will persist through the period. The high humidity combined with the hot temperatures will result in afternoon heat indices between 100 and 105. THe 500H ridge continues to retrograde over the Mid-Atlantic region and will be in the process of flattening out, thanks to waves moving through the larger flow across Canada.
718 AM EDT Mon Jun 23 2025 - Continued hot today - Many chances for rain this week - Warm all week - Continued hot today Despite drifting eastward, the large dome of high pressure over the Ohio Valley will hold sway over our weather, and particularly, our temperatures; yet another day with heat indices around 100. - Many chances for rain this week Our weather will be influenced in large part this week by a cold front currently stretching from near INL southwest to LIC. The cold front will lean into the cwa Tuesday and then become quasi stationary for a few days.
(Today through next Monday) WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Upper level trof resides over the region today and Tuesday before gradually shifting to a zonal, and subsequently a southwesterly flow pattern as a low amplitude upper trof looks to be situated over the PacNW by the latter half of the week. By Tuesday, numerical model guidance has indicated better instability under the upper trof over Elko County. Current indications are for cumulus buildups in and near Elko County though isolated dry showers and thunderstorms have been added to the forecast in and near the Jarbidge wilderness with the higher elevation locations to spots most likely to see convection.
548 AM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025 - Showers and thunderstorms push to the east through the morning, with any additional rainfall most likely confined to northwestern IA and the lower Missouri River Valley through Tuesday.
Temperatures are expected turn cooler today and Tuesday then warm up again mid to late week as high pressure returns. Temperatures warmed briefly yesterday but a trough digging south through interior California will bring a return to onshore flow today and Tuesday that will cool temperatures at least a few degrees, with highs in most areas 4-8 degrees below normal.
* Temperatures will gradually warm throughout the week with warmer than normal temperatures returning later in the week. Troughing across the Southwestern US will result in dry southwesterly flow across southern Nevada, northwestern Arizona, and southeastern California, which will help dry conditions persist for through the week for most of the region. Increasing 500 mb heights will allow for temperatures to gradually warm up throughout the week with warmer than normal temperatures returning during the second half of the week.
633 AM EDT Mon Jun 23 2025 Hot and humid conditions, with dangerous heat index values, are expected during the next few days under the continued influence of a strong upper ridge. Rain chances increase mid to late week as ridging begins to break down. Temperatures will remain warm through the night with lows only reaching into the low to mid 70s. The center of the strong upper level ridge will shift over the Mid-Atlantic today. Temperatures rise as a result into the mid to upper 90s, with heat indices rising into the low triple digits and dewpoints in the mid 60s to low 70s.
Temperatures were mainly in the lower 70s with light winds. Very strong upper level ridging was in place over the Mid Atlantic and central Appalachian, with maximum 500mb heights in the 598 decameter range. Although the presence of strong ridging generally suppresses most convection, it has not been the case over the past couple days. Higher rain chances should be over our more western areas, with lesser chances east thanks to the upper ridging. Before showers commence, another very warm to hot day is expected as high temperatures climb into the lower 90s. With dewpoints into the low/mid 70s, heat index values should rise into the upper 90s to 107 degrees.
301 AM MDT Mon Jun 23 2025 - Cooler weather will continue through today before gradually warming up through the week.
628 AM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025 - A return to cooler than average temperatures today in the wake of a cold front. Both cooler temperatures and daily rainfall are expected through midweek. In the wake of the cold front, we are seeing pretty widespread relief from the heat overnight, with lows dropping into the upper 50s and lower 60s. A low pressure center remains across northern Kansas throughout the day, and the associated fronts should be the focus for additional showers and thunderstorms this evening.
655 AM EDT Mon Jun 23 2025 A large area of High pressure will expand across the Eastern U. High pressure, surface and aloft, will promote strong subsidence the next several days. A large 598-dam upper level ridge will dominate the weather pattern over the Appalachian Mountains on Tuesday, which should coincide with the peak of the heat wave. High temperatures will reach the upper 80s to the mid 90s along and west of the Blue Ridge, while the Piedmont will climb well into the 90s and may even test the century mark.
417 AM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025 An upper ridge will continue across the area through Tuesday with a summer pattern of isolated to scattered showers and storms.
Then, a high pressure ridge centered offshore will strengthen today into Tuesday. This will result in much warmer temperatures and dry conditions across inland areas. A surface thermal trough along the coast will result in breezy to gusty north winds expected during this afternoon and evening, with winds trending slightly lower across coastal areas on Tuesday. Heading into mid to late week, a weak trough arrives.
559 AM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025 - Cooler temperatures and dry conditions are expected to persist through the early portion of the week.
- Cooler weather will continue through today before gradually warming up through the week.
851 AM MDT Mon Jun 23 2025 - Cooler weather will continue through today before gradually warming up through the week. A surface pressure trough this morning can continue to produce a few isolated showers across North-Central MT and the Continental Divide this morning.
622 AM EDT Mon Jun 23 2025 An upper ridge will remain in place over the region through mid-week.
656 AM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025 An upper ridge will continue across the area through Tuesday with a summer pattern of isolated to scattered showers and storms.
Temperatures are in the lower 80s, so we are still just a couple of degrees above average for this time of year. Deep layer ridging over the eastern U. will remain in place today, but a mid to upper level low near Bermuda will erode the periphery of the high as it progresses southwestward.
/Issued 1227 AM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025/ /Through Tuesday/ A stout upper ridge will remain anchored over the eastern CONUS through the early portion of the workweek, placing North Texas within southerly flow through the column. /Issued 313 AM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025/ /Tuesday Night Onward/ The dominant mid level ridge over the Ohio Valley will flatten and expand west mid to late week, as the trough over the Desert Southwest lifts northeast through the Plains.
636 AM EDT Mon Jun 23 2025 A strong mid and upper ridge will build in over the eastern United States through midweek with a significant warming trend. Building surface and mid-level ridging will lead to a hot and dry day today. Strong ridging will maintain hot weather on Tuesday. Latest forecast does include a 15% PoP for Tuesday with models hinting at some activity in the western and central Carolinas along a thermal trough. The ridge begins to weaken Tuesday afternoon with a slight tilt, resulting from a developing low to our southeast.
250 PM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025 - Clearing tonight and cooler.
Subsidence under high pressure will only further support continued warming throughout the day with afternoon highs forecast to peak in the low to mid 90s. Together the high temps and high dew points will push our apparent temps near and just above 100 this afternoon. With the highest apparent temperatures being seen in NW AL, a Heat Advisory is in effect for Lauderdale, Colbert, and Franklin AL through 7 PM this evening. No significant changes will take place overnight as the upper level ridging maintains its hold on the TN Valley.
After Today, zonal flow and weak ridging will allow for a slow warm-up with ever better chances of reaching 100 degrees late in the week.
- Upper high moved off to the north and east will keep hot and humid conditions in the forecast.
An upper level ridge covers the eastern half of the country and a trough is over the west. High pressure over the Gulf has the low level flow from the southeast.
1111 AM EDT Mon Jun 23 2025 Hot and humid conditions, with dangerous heat index values, are expected during the next few days under the continued influence of a strong upper ridge. Rain chances increase mid to late week as ridging begins to break down. Satellite imagery showing clear skies across the region under the influence of the very strong 598DM upper ridge centered over Virginia.
Weak troughing will remain over the western U. through mid week with a sprawling east-west oriented ridge covering the eastern 2/3 of the country.
1158 AM PDT Mon Jun 23 2025 * Cooler than average temperatures with overall dry conditions continue through Tuesday. * For today into Tuesday, an upper level trough will slowly move eastward through the Great Basin. With the low in place (allowing for larger scale lift) and increasing instability (cooling from aloft, orographic lift) there is a 10-30% chance for afternoon showers and thunderstorms, primarily from ~2 PM to 7 PM.
While some lingering showers and cloud cover are providing shade across the Lower Keys, temperatures are already up in the mid 80s. With ridging continuing to dominate the Eastern Seaboard, we continue to expect the same easterly flow bringing pockets of tropical moisture to the area in the short term so chance PoPs continue to be held in the short term. From synopsis, high pressure will remain dominant over the area for the next couple of days, allowing for mainly easterly moderate to modestly fresh breezes.
127 PM PDT Mon Jun 23 2025 A few degrees cooler today with below average temperatures. Tuesday will be a few degrees warmer with gradual warming trend continuing through the end of the week.
For the rest of the week, there will be a weak troughing/zonal flow pattern.
(Tonight) High pressure centered just NE of the area has allowed for temperatures across the CWA to surge into the upper 80s to low 90s. SE flow around the high pressure has maintained dew points in the low 70s. Lows will only drop to the mid 70s overnight as we remain under high pressure influence.
A series of inverted troughs moving west across S TX will maintain at least a low chance of showers and thunderstorms across the eastern portions of S TX through the period.
The proximity of the surface cold frontal boundary and potential for evening and overnight rains will play a part in moderating the temperatures a for the early part of the week.
An upper ridge dominates the eastern US, while the northern stream trough has advanced into central Canada and the southern stream trough extends from CA into ID and MT. As of 19Z, sfc cold front now extends from southeastern MN back through IA, NE, and central KS. The synoptic front looks washed out by the afternoon, but may be a focal point for storms to redevelop before the boundary moves north as a warm front.
110 PM MDT Mon Jun 23 2025 KEY MESSAGES: - Warmer and drier on Tuesday.
A weak upper trough is situated across the southwestern United States. For tonight, look for skies to become mostly clear with low temperatures in the 40s to maybe the low 50s. The aforementioned upper low will have limited moisture to work with on Tuesday. The upper trough will shift off to the east, with a general west to east flow setting up.
With steering flow largely parallel to the trough, these storms will largely remain along this corridor, but cannot rule out a storm or two pushing further east into our far west/northwest. Otherwise, dry but muggy conditions will prevail overnight, with lows in the low to mid 70s.
However, deep layer shear will be poor under the large scale ridge, though MCVs and/or outflow boundaries may locally enhance shear.
A broad upper level trough continues to move across Canada with North Dakota on the equatorward side of the upper level jet stream.
143 PM MDT Mon Jun 23 2025 KEY MESSAGES: - Warmer temperatures will return through the middle part of the week, but chances for showers and thunderstorms will continue at times. Otherwise, mostly dry conditions prevail through Tuesday with a return to seasonably warm temperatures, as the upper level pattern becomes more of a ridge. However, most ensemble guidance shows northeast Montana riding near the top of the ridge for the remainder of the week, lending to unstable west/southwest flow with frequent thunderstorm chances.
139 PM EDT Mon Jun 23 2025 - Continued hot today - Many chances for rain this week - Warm all week - Continued hot today Despite drifting eastward, the large dome of high pressure over the Ohio Valley will hold sway over our weather, and particularly, our temperatures; yet another day with heat indices around 100. - Many chances for rain this week Our weather will be influenced in large part this week by a cold front currently stretching from near INL southwest to LIC. The cold front will lean into the cwa Tuesday and then become quasi stationary for a few days.
1226 PM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025 - A return to cooler than average temperatures today in the wake of a cold front. Both cooler temperatures and daily rainfall are expected through midweek. In the wake of the cold front, we are seeing pretty widespread relief from the heat overnight, with lows dropping into the upper 50s and lower 60s. A low pressure center remains across northern Kansas throughout the day, and the associated fronts should be the focus for additional showers and thunderstorms this evening.
Current Conditions and Synoptic Pattern: Water vapor and upper air analysis continues to show a summertime high pressure cell located the eastern US with the Ozarks region on the western periphery. The exception is southeast of Springfield near Oregon and Shannon counties where mid level temps are slightly cooler (8-9C). Overnight low temps continue to remain above average as lows are typically in the middle 60s with lows previously and going forward remaining in the lower 70s.
125 PM EDT Mon Jun 23 2025 A strong mid and upper ridge will build in over the eastern United States through midweek with a significant warming trend. Building surface and mid-level ridging will lead to a hot and dry day today. Strong ridging will maintain hot weather on Tuesday. Latest forecast does include a 15% PoP for Tuesday with models hinting at some activity in the western and central Carolinas along a thermal trough. The ridge begins to weaken Tuesday afternoon with a slight tilt, resulting from a developing low to our southeast.
315 PM EDT Mon Jun 23 2025 A ridge of high pressure remains overhead through mid-week as a cold front begins to sink south across the eastern Great Lakes Tuesday night.
Tuesday the high temperatures return to average with Billings forecast to be just shy of 80F.
Coverage should generally remain the highest across East Texas, possibly as far north as Southeast Oklahoma and adjacent portions of Southwest Arkansas, where subsidence is the weakest and the onshore flow is more southerly and direct. However, with temperatures expected to be another degree or two warmer, this should expand criteria level heat indices into portions of McCurtain and Little River Counties. Showers and thunderstorms, while still isolated to widely scattered, are expected to affect a much greater portion of the forecast area on Tuesday as another weak wave rotates around the upper level ridge, but moves directly over the ArkLaTex this time.
High pressure aloft and at the surface continues to favor an easterly flow.
/NEW/ /Through Tuesday/ Seasonably warm and humid late June conditions will dominate North Texas today through Tuesday, as the region remains on the western periphery of a deep layer high pressure ridge centered over the Eastern U. Daytime highs today and Tuesday should push into the lower and middle 90s areawide.
350 PM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025 * Slow moving cold front is expected to work south tonight approaching the I-70 corridor.
126 PM EDT Mon Jun 23 2025 Hot and humid conditions, with dangerous heat index values, are expected during the next few days under the continued influence of a strong upper ridge. Rain chances increase mid to late week as ridging begins to break down. Anomalously strong upper ridge continues to dominate the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic. Temperatures continue to rise through the lower 90s and expect highs to top out in the mid to upper 90s. Tonight, diurnal clouds should diminish with sunset and after such a warm day, a mild night is expected with low temperatures in the lower to mid 70s, typical of a mid summer night.