Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A cold front is expected to bring shower chances to all TAF sites starting overnight, becoming more widespread by around daybreak Sunday. Satellite imagery reveals an upper-level ridge of high pressure over the Pacific Northwest. Meanwhile, broad troughing, with multiple embedded waves, is present downstream. Upstream, another broad trough is located just offshore, and a well-defined cold front is also visible over the ocean. This trough, and attendant surface cold front, will drive our weather tonight through Sunday before exiting the region to the east through Monday. Overnight, scattered to numerous showers are forecast, with the most noteworthy area to the lee of the Cascades from central Oregon through the lower Columbia Basin and farther east into the Blue Mountains and their foothills.
- A mid-week cold front will bring increased rain chances and near- normal temperatures.
Northeasterly flow, induced by a trough along the East Coast and ridge over the Ozarks, will continue to funnel dry air into Georgia.
Isolated to scattered showers will be possible once again along the Rio Grande Plains as the ridge continues to progress to the east. The highest chance for precip will be around mid week (Wed. This is expected to be coupled with a persisting southeasterly fetch during the high tide cycles.
133 AM EDT Sun Sep 14 2025 * Mid-to-upper level trough will bring the outside chance of a shower across northern Pennsylvania this afternoon/evening.
- Cooler air moves back in for the late week. An omega block slowly trudging through the Great Lakes region today through early this week will keep the area dry today through tonight as the high pressure ridging will inhibit convective potential. The only difference that you may notice is temperatures potentially being a degree or two warmer in the interior areas and the lakeshores being a little cooler, as the lake breezes off of Lake Superior and Lake Michigan look to have a more easterly component by this afternoon thanks to the omega block continuing its slow walk eastward. For the early part of the week the upper level ridge will begin to shift east and break down.
High pressure is then reinforced from Ontario and Lake Huron during the day signaled by light easterly wind picking up slightly from the NE into Sunday evening. SE Michigan resides at the inflection point of low pressure near Hudson Bay and high pressure building over the Plains. The influence of the trough was noted in the 12z KDTX RAOB as a 500mb height of 583 dam was sampled at KDTX and 580 dam at KAPX.
- An upper level ridge will remain over the region through the first half of the coming week.
Hot and humid conditions are expected again today with highs in the low/mid 90s along and south of Highway 30, with upper 80s into the northeast portion of the outlook area. This will create peak heat indices again in the mid 90s to around 100 degrees south of Highway 30, and into the lower/mid 90s to the north. There is little change in the lower tropospheric thermal profile compared to yesterday with 850mb temperatures remaining in the upper percentile of NAEFS climatology (lower 20s Celsius). Have maintained the lower chances for showers/storms in the forecast in this portion of the outlook area (15-25%).
An upper ridge continues to build into the Great Lakes this morning which has allowed cloud cover over northern IL and northwest IN to scatter out. While temperatures in the mid-80s are expected (upper 80s to near 90 possible near and west of I-39), persistent easterly winds today will keep readings notably cooler within a few miles of the lake where highs look to top out in the mid-70s to near 80. Another clear night is expected tonight with temperatures cooling into the low to mid-60s, but the lowering dew points should limit any fog development. Heading into the work week, the previously advertised REX block upper pattern is expected to remain in place with ridging over the Great Lakes and troughing over the central and southeast CONUS.
Thunderstorm activity should taper off by later in the evening as the trough departs to the east.
200 AM EDT Sun Sep 14 2025 High pressure centered to our north will extend down through the Mid Atlantic and the Carolinas through Monday, although a weak upper level low settling over the Carolinas will bring periods of clouds each day. and highs in the lower 80s and lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s. The persistent upper trough aligned along the SE Coast will move very little, with central NC on the more favorable drier west side of the axis.
(Today through Monday) A closed low will develop along the Mid-Atlantic coast on Sunday and meander over the Carolinas, slightly retrograding west at times. Central Alabama will be situated between the low and elongated ridging centered over the ArkLaTex into the Great Lakes Region.
- Thunderstorms develop along a cold front across western portions of the area this afternoon.
Afternoon highs will peak into the low to mid 90s F falling into the upper 60s F tonight. /86/CR/ Despite ridging quickly building east through the Lower Mississippi River Valley late in the period, the overall troughing pattern will pretty much persist across the region through the mid and extended portions of the forecast. This, with high pressure at the surface wedged into the region from the northeast, will continue to promote quiet and continued hot conditions across the forecast area through the week.
Dry and warm weather prevails throughout the entire forecast period with upper troughing across the eastern CONUS. Afternoon highs will top out in the lower 90's for most locations each day, with overnight lows cooling into the lower to middle 60's.
As the ridge starts to slide more to the north there could be some very subtle lift across the coast. For the rest of the area the ridge will still have enough of a hold on the region to lead to another rather warm day.
126 AM EDT Sun Sep 14 2025 A cold front will cross the area today.
Loyd of scattered showers over the higher terrain early this afternoon. Tomorrow, except of some very isolated showers, tomorrow is going to be a mostly sunny and a bit cooler day over the region. Highs in the 70s are expected over mountain valleys, with 80s over much of the plains, and a few low 90s over the Lower Arkansas River Valley.
631 AM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025 - An upper level ridge will remain over the region through the first half of the coming week.
High pressure will bring dry and seasonable conditions across Utah and southwest Wyoming today. A Pacific Northwest storm system will graze northern Utah Sunday night into Monday, bringing cooler temperatures and a chance of light showers.
The majority of precipitation to occur with a fast moving cold front occurred overnight, including isolated thunderstorms in southern Oregon. A progressive pattern continues with an upper ridge guiding conditions to start the work week. The main impact will be another round of warmer temperatures.
UPDATE Low clouds and patchy fog are being observed this morning across parts of the area, with east to southeast winds at 5 to 10 mph and temperatures in the low to mid 60s. An upper low is moving slowly northward across the Central High Plains and into the Northern Plains. To the east, H5 ridging continues to move slowly to the east, allowing south to southwest flow into the Northern Plains.
Low clouds and patchy fog are being observed this morning across parts of the area, with east to southeast winds at 5 to 10 mph and temperatures in the low to mid 60s. An upper low is moving slowly northward across the Central High Plains and into the Northern Plains. To the east, H5 ridging continues to move slowly to the east, allowing south to southwest flow into the Northern Plains.
* Warmer temperatures are expected through this week along with generally dry conditions.
224 AM PDT Sun Sep 14 2025 Updated at 108 AM PDT Sun Sep 14 2025 * A weak upper ridge will move east today and an upper trough will quickly shift east this evening through tomorrow. The upper trough will quickly exit, allowing for a ridge to build across the area Monday. The ridge will bring fairly quiet weather to the area through the upcoming week.
603 AM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025 (Today through Monday) A closed low will develop along the Mid-Atlantic coast on Sunday and meander over the Carolinas, slightly retrograding west at times. Central Alabama will be situated between the low and elongated ridging centered over the ArkLaTex into the Great Lakes Region.
651 AM EDT Sun Sep 14 2025 Dry and warm weather is expected through much of the week under high pressure. KEY MESSAGES: - Dry and warm today --------------------------------------------------------------- Early morning cloud cover will continue to clear from north to south as a weak upper level trough completes its passage across the Upper Ohio Valley region. 500 mb heights will also rise through the day as a strong ridge across the central CONUS begins to drift eastward.
Otherwise high pressure will continue to contribute to dry, quiet conditions today into tonight.
With the upper-level trough axis now moving past to our east, today should be a generally quiet day across SE Colorado, after a cool and potentially frosty start to the morning in the San Luis Valley. Temperatures will be a few degrees cooler than yesterday, with 70s to near-80 over the plains and high-60s for the valleys. Cool again tonight, with 40s-50s out east and 30s across the high valleys.
324 AM PDT Sun Sep 14 2025 * High pressure building over the southwest will allow for dry weather and a warming trend through the middle of the upcoming week.
The Florida Keys lie in the base of the trough, with the 00z evening sounding at KEY showing substantial mid-upper level drying compared to twenty-four hours ago.
The rest of the forecast is on track with mainly hot and dry conditions this afternoon with highs in the low to mid 90s.
517 AM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025 - Seasonably hot weather will continue this week with afternoon highs in the lower to mid 90s.
508 AM PDT Sun Sep 14 2025 - Cooler today with widespread rain.
645 AM EDT Sun Sep 14 2025 A cold front will cross the area today.
550 AM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025 - Hot and mostly dry conditions are expected through mid-week, with highs in the low to mid 90s.
612 AM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025 Despite light onshore east-southeasterly surface winds, slight ridging and increased subsidence aloft is likely to reduce probabilities of showers and thunderstorms to a low (20-30%) chance this afternoon, limited to the Rio Grande Plains (Starr and Zapata counties), where upper level divergence will be slightly more favorable. Meanwhile, weakness between mid-level highs over the eastern Midwest and northern-central Mexico will allow for a trough swinging through the Plains to induce a weak mid-level low over south Texas tonight, fostering coastal troughing along Deep South Texas' coast and increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms, beginning tomorrow, Monday.
Low pressure developing over the Upper Midwest will bring the next chance of precipitation to the Ohio Valley late this week into the weekend. A mid-level high over the Great Lakes will remain north of a cut-off low spinning near the Carolina Coast through the near term period.
A short wave riding along the base of a long wave trough to our east is providing just enough support for showers as the northerly flow brings in slightly higher PWATS into the area to support this.
Discussion: The pattern for the week ahead can be defined by an omega block with low pressure aloft over the northern Rockies/High Plains and over the coast of the Carolinas. Our region will be situated mostly between the latter of the lows and ridging. This will help keep temperatures on the warmer side of things.
The well-defined negatively tilted trough will continue through the region, with an associated cold front already moving through Eastern Oregon. Surface winds: SE 5-15 kt overnight, becoming NW 10-15 kt gusts to 20-25 kt after Sun/17Z with cold front.
138 PM PDT Sun Sep 14 2025 Updated at 135 PM PDT Sun Sep 14 2025 * A weak upper ridge will move east today and an upper trough will quickly shift east this evening through tomorrow. The upper trough will quickly exit, allowing for a ridge to build across the area Monday. The ridge will bring fairly quiet weather to the area through the upcoming week.
Satellite imagery reveals an upper-level ridge of high pressure over the Pacific Northwest. Meanwhile, broad troughing, with multiple embedded waves, is present downstream. Upstream, another broad trough is located just offshore, and a well-defined cold front is also visible over the ocean. This trough, and attendant surface cold front, will drive our weather tonight through Sunday before exiting the region to the east through Monday. Overnight, scattered to numerous showers are forecast, with the most noteworthy area to the lee of the Cascades from central Oregon through the lower Columbia Basin and farther east into the Blue Mountains and their foothills.
Weak ridging aloft early this week will result in a shallower marine layer with low cloud coverage not reaching much further inland than the western valleys. Most valley locations at 1 PM this afternoon were running 3 to 7 degrees warmer than yesterday, with some locations in the mountains 10 to 14 degrees warmer than this time yesterday.
149 PM EDT Sun Sep 14 2025 High pressure over southeastern Canada and the Northeast U.
- A mid-week cold front will bring increased rain chances and near-normal temperatures. Clearing over northwest Oklahoma has heated temperatures into the low 80's and the RAP indicates CAMS suggest MLCAPE remaining within the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range this afternoon.
In this dry air mass, another good setup for radiational cooling will take place with temperatures falling into the low mid 60s in most locations by early Monday morning.
All of this is possible due to the influences of two things: a couple of ripples along the east side of an upper level ridge and an upper low just off to our east.
Persistent coastal troughing will allow moisture to build, returning us to near-normal PWAT values for mid-September. Coastal troughing will bring daily low to moderate (30-60 percent) chances of rain.
155 PM EDT Sun Sep 14 2025 A cold front crosses through this evening bringing isolated showers. High pressure builds in Monday and will hold over New England through much of the week.
334 PM EDT Sun Sep 14 2025 High pressure over eastern Canada continues to extend into the eastern Great Lakes. High pressure over eastern Ontario and western Quebec will continue to persist southwest into the local area through Monday. This feature in conjunction with a high amplitude ridge will allow for dry weather to continue through Monday night. The forecast will remain status quo with high pressure to the northeast and some return flow into the region.
- Warmer tomorrow; 7-9F warmer on the plains, 3 - 6F higher terrain. Pops are nil for the next 24 hours, however I cant rule out a stray shower this afternoon (especially Pikes Peak region) and over the higher terrain tomorrow.
Our area generally remains on the backside of these troughs, keeping persistent northerly to northwesterly flow aloft in place. Afternoon highs each afternoon top out in the lower 90's for most locations each day, with overnight lows cooling into the lower to middle 60's.
A cloud line has formed along the Lower and Middle Keys this afternoon, but precipitation is having trouble developing and sustaining with dry air aloft. Southeasterly winds are observed at most levels of the atmosphere confirming a deep layer trough axis lies perhaps just off to the west of our area.
- Near normal temperatures today; much cooler Monday. - Drier and warmer pattern for mid to late week. A transitory ridge is gradually shifting eastward and over Southeast Idaho overnight through the first part of Sunday. This will result in a dry period through early afternoon and warmer daytime temperatures close to normal, generally mid 70s to low 80s in our valleys and 50s and 60s in the mid to high elevations. Overnight lows tonight will be very similar to those observed the past several nights, remaining mild in the mid to high 40s across the low elevations, 30s in the mountains, and 40s in mountain valleys. Highs will be in the 60s for most with partly cloudy skies and rain showers for at least the higher elevations of the Central Mountains and Eastern Highlands as an upper level low passes through Idaho.
Weak ridging aloft early this week will result in a shallower marine layer.
As the upper low transitions northeastward through the next two days, moisture and flow with it will be taken away from our area.
Otherwise, most of South Texas will remain dry today as we remain under the influence of high pressure centered over Mexico. Meanwhile, a mid-level low/troughing just lee of the Rockies will lift northeast across the northern Plains followed by several other lows dropping down from Canada throughout the upcoming work week. Coupled with the aforementioned high retreating westward, allowing for troughing and some limited PVA to move in over the region and stretching down into Deep South Texas. Lows over the period will generally range from the low 70s to around 80 degrees.
(This afternoon through Monday night) The far southern edge of the upper-level trough continues to move across portions of West Texas this afternoon, eventually ejecting off to the northeast this evening and overnight.
225 PM EDT Sun Sep 14 2025 - Unseasonably warm and dry conditions this week - Increased fire weather concerns early in the week Pattern synopsis/forecast: Omega block in the upper levels across the lower CONUS with ridge axis extending north through the Great Lakes with upper level troughing along the east coast and over the intermountain west. But given the overall lack of moisture and warmer mid levels, most (all?) areas will be dry. Ridge axis overhead on Monday.
Currently, an upper level trough extends over Florida. Another shot of cooler, dry air expected Monday morning with most of the area expecting mid to upper 60s.
Southeasterly winds are observed at most levels of the atmosphere confirming a deep layer trough axis lies perhaps just off to the west of our area. Weak undulations of this feature, interacting with high pressure to its immediate north, will result in a low confidence forecast for winds and rain chances.
1048 AM PDT Sun Sep 14 2025 - Cooler today with widespread rain.
845 AM PDT Sun Sep 14 2025 * High pressure building over the southwest will allow for dry weather and a warming trend through the middle of the upcoming week.
155 PM EDT Sun Sep 14 2025 High pressure will keep our weather dry through Monday.
* Warmer temperatures and mostly dry conditions are expected through mid-week.
The overall upper pattern will remain persistent with high pressure dominating the middle part of the country and a long wave trough extending along the east coast. The upper high will continue to suppress convection across the local area. Expect to see near normal lows, warmer than normal highs, and no significant rain chances. Any impact should be very minor and limited to the lowest lying sections of road, mainly along Hwy 315 south of Houma.
This pattern holds in place through at least mid-week as the upper ridge transitions to a rex blocking pattern.
1223 PM PDT Sun Sep 14 2025 * High pressure building across the Southwest will keep conditions warm and dry through midweek.
1258 PM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025 - Hot and mostly dry conditions are expected through mid-week, with highs in the low to mid 90s.
246 PM EDT Sun Sep 14 2025 Isolated showers are expected this and evening with highs in the lower to mid 70s. Dry weather with temperatures near or just warmer than average through mid week.
Expect afternoon highs to peak into the low to mid 90s across our forecast area.
A weak cold frontal system has passed over the area early this morning, bringing a few showers to Humboldt and Del Norte Counties.
High pressure over the Southwest will result in seasonable temperatures, light winds, and mostly dry conditions through the next few days. With high pressure settling across the Region, drier conditions will keep overnight/morning low temperatures near freezing for many localized locations.
But the boundary will also be interacting with day time heating in an environment featuring less stout ridging and somewhat higher PWs than days prior. Temperatures today are expected to skew near to slightly above normal in the low/mid 90s.
- Dry and warmer conditions Monday. - Cooler and unsettled weather returns by mid-week. Latest satellite and surface analysis (1:13 PM MDT) shows a weakening 500mb closed low lifting northeast across the central plains with an abundant amounts of moisture streaming into central and eastern South Dakota. Upper-level ridging builds in with warming 850mb temperatures jumping to around 20 Celsius. The dry and warm conditions will be short lived as another 500mb trough moves across the Pacific Northwest and will continue to deepen as it moves inland.
An upper level trough along the West Coast will usher in a cold front this afternoon. Additionally, it will be much cooler with daytime highs 5-10 degrees below normal on Monday with snow levels drop to around 8500 feet.
Our overall weather pattern is dominated by an upper level ridge over Sonora/Chihuahua MX, and a series of upper troughs passing through the Pacific Northwest. The aforementioned Mexico ridge expands ever so slightly to the north and west on Monday, which will lead to some modest warming of a few degrees across the forecast area. The upper ridge continues to broaden and expand northward through the week, with better moisture cycling through our forecast area.
232 PM EDT Sun Sep 14 2025 High pressure over eastern Canada continues to extend into the eastern Great Lakes. High pressure over eastern Ontario and western Quebec will continue to persist southwest into the local area through Monday. This feature in conjunction with a high amplitude ridge will allow for dry weather to continue through Monday night. The forecast will remain status quo with high pressure to the northeast and some return flow into the region.
1231 PM EDT Sun Sep 14 2025 High pressure continues to drive the weather pattern for the next couple of days. Our next chance of rain might be early this week but is dependent on the location and development of an upper level low. Satellite shows two areas of low pressure spinning along and east of the Southeastern coastline. Across the forecast area, surface ridging will continue to be the primary controller of our weather. By Monday morning, this cutoff low is forecast to be meandering northeastward along the SC Coastal plain, helping to force a fairly well defined extra-tropical low pressure off shore.
- Cooler air moves back in for the late week. The upper level ridge, omega block, continues to get squeezed as it slowly pushes east, with the axis now extending from the lower Mississippi Valley to the U. The closed low over the west was starting to open up as it merged with an approaching trough along the Pacific Northwest. Over the east a trough extended through eastern Canada down into New England with weak troughing all the way down into Florida. The ridge was keeping the U. A light southerly downslope wind could limit fog development in the lower elevation near Lake Superior, especially in the west. Through Monday night the upper level ridge will continue to slowly migrate east as a broader trough develops in the west with multiple short waves ejecting from the Rockies north through the northern Plains.
Satellite imagery reveals a negatively tilted trough over the Pacific Northwest. The trough's attendant cold front passed across the forecast area overnight through this morning, and is now tracking east into the northern Rockies.
605 PM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025 - An upper level ridge will remain over the region through the first half of the coming week.