Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Update: 12Z KOTX sounding not that representative as it occurred to the northeast of the wet area of low pressure currently over the state of Washington as of near 18Z SAT. Forecast remains rather wet and unsettled with some timing of breaks as the back edge of this moving area of low pressure passing as it moves from the southwest to northeast today and is discussed in the aviation section below. /Pelatti 18Z TAFS: Rain with IFR/MVFR conditions prevailing as a low pressure system moves southwest to northeast across the aviation area today. Yet another low pressure system will move in bringing in more rain with continued high snow levels starting near 06Z SUN at KEAT and near 11Z SUN at KGEG.
-Enriquez PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: The two biggest challenges over the next few days continues to be if and when the fog forms, and how much will existing snowpack impact out much the temperatures warm up when this ridge moves in on Sunday. On Sunday a lee side trough moves through as a weak Chinook warm front and this should be enough to mix the inversion out and warm things up by a good 10 degrees.
Meanwhile, upper ridging continues to build over the Great Basin. Still expecting a sharp upper trough to setup across the Western CONUS on Thu into Fri with a very positive orientation.
A wetter, windier, and cooler pattern is expected for the end of the upcoming week and looks to continue into the first full week of February. A few localized gusts near 65 mph are possible over ridgelines, below mountain passes, and through wind-prone canyons early Sunday morning.
A band of showers and a few thunderstorms ahead of a cold front extend from near Cedar Key to about 80 miles west of Bradenton. The cold front will push across the forecast area late tonight and early Sunday morning with skies clearing, and much colder drier air advecting over the region as Canadian high pressure builds over the southeast U. The high temperature for Sunday will most likely occur just after midnight or during the overnight hours. Scattered to numerous showers and storms will push into the north this evening and move south through the area overnight and into Sunday ahead of and along the front, with conditions clearing behind the front as cooler and drier air move in on increasing NW flow. High pressure then builds into the area behind the front bringing cooler and drier air.
645 PM CST Sat Jan 27 2024 (This evening through Sunday) As the upper level trough continues to shift north and east towards the Great Lakes, skies continue to clear from west to east across Oklahoma and northern Texas, with the current clear skies nearly reaching the I-35 corridor. While temperatures will be below 32 for portions of north central Oklahoma overnight, there is a low probability that the fog will be dense enough for impactful freezing fog, so any mention of freezing fog has been left out. Upper level ridging will begin to impact the region, with clear skies over the region by Sunday afternoon.
Otherwise, tonight will be a warmer night across the area with lows in the mid 20s and 30s. Over the rest of the lower elevations Sunday, breezy conditions will prevail with gusts into the 20s (mph). Arends Amplified ridging over the area will bring dry conditions and well above normal temperatures through the coming week, with highs in the 50s to lower 60s for many of the lower elevations. There will be periods of gusty winds at times with high pressure over the region, but current probabilities of gusts over 30 mph remain under 40 percent, highest along the western foothills. Heading towards the coming weekend, ensembles and WPC Cluster Analysis prog a trend towards cooler and more unsettled conditions, with a possible area of low pressure moving into the region.
511 PM CST Sat Jan 27 2024 (This evening through Sunday night) Cold front has already cleared most of the area and will continue to progress eastward over the next several hours. Cool and dry high pressure will build into the area tonight resulting in near to slightly below normal temperatures through the weekend. With the upper low still located over the middle Mississippi Valley, wrap around moisture will continue to result in generally cloudy conditions through tonight. As the low lifts northeastward Sunday, clouds will gradually dissipate across the area by Sunday evening.
527 PM CST Sat Jan 27 2024 - Freezing drizzle and fog look to reform/stay overnight, especially in Minnesota.
(This evening through Sunday) As the upper level trough continues to shift north and east towards the Great Lakes, skies continue to clear from west to east across Oklahoma and northern Texas, with the current clear skies nearly reaching the I-35 corridor. While temperatures will be below 32 for portions of north central Oklahoma overnight, there is a low probability that the fog will be dense enough for impactful freezing fog, so any mention of freezing fog has been left out. Upper level ridging will begin to impact the region, with clear skies over the region by Sunday afternoon.
459 PM CST Sat Jan 27 2024 (Through Tonight) Precipitation is coming to an end across the forecast area this afternoon as the upper low shifts eastward, placing the region under increasingly north-northwest flow. As a result, could see areas of freezing fog develop as well. With positive height anomalies expanding into the region, drier and warmer conditions are favored for much of the coming week.
(This evening through Sunday night) Benign weather is in the offing tonight through Sunday night as dry northwest flow aloft prevails courtesy of an approaching upper level ridge of high pressure from the west.
- Upper-level ridge remains over the region leading to sunny skies and warming temperatures throughout the work week. Although the CWA will be positioned under the leading edge of an upper-level ridge, the aforementioned weak disturbance will increase mid-level moisture for areas west of the Laramie Range.
Upper level ridging dominates The Treasure State. A series of perturbations rippling through the upper level pattern flattens out the ridge across The Northern Rocky Mountain Front, favoring some strong gusty westerly winds and some light precipitation, through much of the weekend.
629 PM EST Sat Jan 27 2024 Low pressure will lift northeast from the Tennessee Valley to the upper Ohio Valley tonight. The low will then transition to a coastal low on Sunday.
Models have upper ridging moving into the CWA tonight and on Sunday. An upper level ridge approaches northeastern Colorado keeping our area in light northwest flow.
530 PM CST Sat Jan 27 2024 (This evening through Sunday Night) Upper trough ovhd currently will continue to quickly eject out to the north and east tonight. Still dealing with some patchy light drizzle across the eastern half of our region and while this will be pulling out as well with the upper trough, will hang on to this mention in the forecast for this evening only. We should be able to lose the low cloud cover during the day Sunday with the sun returning across most areas but our far eastern zones may not lose cloud cover until after sunset on Sunday. Sfc ridging will move directly ovhd Sunday Night and with mostly clear skies, that should result in slightly colder temperatures Sunday Night.
(Tonight) Convective line of showers has moved well east of the central TN Valley this Sat evening, as the trailing cold front crosses into NE AL. Temps in the wake of the cold front have dropped into the mid 40s, mainly along/west of the I-65 corridor. Upper low/trough axis also lingers back to the west over the Mid South/Midwest states, although this feature will continue to translate eastward into the TN/OH Valley regions later tonight. Low clouds surround the upper trough pattern and this cloud cover will continue to spread into the area overnight. With the influx of cooler air, lows into early Sun look to fall mainly into the lower 40s/near 40F for most spots.
453 PM CST Sat Jan 27 2024 (This afternoon through Sunday night) WV imagery shows the upper trough moving through the MS Valley this afternoon, and an upper ridge moving into the Intermountain West, leaving West Texas and Southeast New Mexico under dry, northwest flow aloft. Sunday night, with continued return flow and a few high clouds moving in from the west, lows will be a couple of degrees warmer than tonight.
455 PM CST Sat Jan 27 2024 (Tonight through Sunday night) Key Messages: - Small Craft Advisory remains in effect through Sunday morning Water vapor imagery this afternoon reveals a trough lifting across the Southeast US as a ridge nudges our way from the west. At the surface, high pressure is settling into the region and will hang around through the weekend. As a result, we will see some cooler temps the next couple of mornings with lows dropping into the mid 30s across the Victoria Crossroads and Coastal Plains to the mid 40s along the coast and across the Brush Country. Freezing temps don't appear likely this weekend with less than a 10% chance of seeing temps below 32F.
Some light rain is around, but the cold front is now the focus. Radar is showing weak convection already developing on the cold front itself. Plus, surface temps are going to be just above freezing.
458 PM CST Sat Jan 27 2024 (Tonight through Sunday night) Breezy northwest winds behind a cold front continue this afternoon but speeds should begin to diminish shortly before sunset.
638 PM EST Sat Jan 27 2024 - Watching potential for some patchy freezing drizzle tonight.
548 PM CST Sat Jan 27 2024 (This evening through Sunday) Gusty northwest winds continue behind the cold front that swept south through the area overnight. With clear skies, light winds and drier air in place behind the cold front, temperatures will drop into the 30s area- wide, with a few readings to freezing or colder possibly Sunday morning, especially in our valley areas. (Sunday night through next Saturday) Looks like quiet and mild weather for early to mid week as an upper level high pressure ridge will build over the Southern Plains.
A ridge over much of the western CONUS will continue to bring warmer temperatures, drier conditions, and mostly light winds. An ample ridge is positioned over the western half of the U.
802 PM EST Sat Jan 27 2024 A strong cold front will move through the region overnight. A drier and cooler air mass will overspread the region Sunday along with gusty winds. Additional showers and thunderstorm are also possible overnight as the cold front pushes into the area between 04-08z, but the severe threat will be very limited. Upper level low/mature cyclone over the Ohio Valley early Sunday will move moving east with coastal low developing northeast of the Delmarva. The cold front which moved through overnight, will be well east of the area. Model soundings suggest strong downward vertical motion but moisture trapped below the a subsidence inversion and more extensive late in the day overnight as upper long wave trough moves thru.
524 PM CST Sat Jan 27 2024 (This evening through Sunday night) Benign weather is in the offing tonight through Sunday night as dry northwest flow aloft prevails courtesy of an approaching upper level ridge of high pressure from the west.
851 PM CST Sat Jan 27 2024 GOES-16 Water vapor satellite trends depict an upper level low centered just northwest of Evansville, Indiana.
536 PM CST Sat Jan 27 2024 We will continue to see a drying trend in the wake of a surface cold front amid deep NW flow.
Cool and dry conditions will prevail throughout the weekend as CAA continues and high pressure dominates the local weather pattern. The rest of today will remain breezy with north northwest winds at around 10 to 15 mph and gusts of 20 to 25 mph, but winds will decrease to 5 to 10 mph overnight as the high pressure moves into general area. In response to the CAA, temperatures tonight will be 10 to 15 degrees cooler than last night. Another cold night is expected Sunday night, with lows expected to be in the mid to upper 30s for most inland portions and in the low 40s along the coasts. Although widespread freezing temperatures are not expected for tonight or Sunday night, lows will be a few degrees above freezing.
707 PM CST Sat Jan 27 2024 - Freezing drizzle and fog look to reform/stay overnight, especially in Minnesota.
The rain will clear the area in the next 1-2 hours as the cold front currently moving across southeast Mississippi moves east. A cooler and drier airmass will move into the area in the wake of the cold front. Low clouds may scatter out briefly this evening before wrapping back into the area tonight around the upper low across the Tennessee Valley. Lows tonight will fall into the low to mid 40s inland to upper 40s along the coast. Highs on Sunday will only climb into the low to mid 50s inland to upper 50s along the coast.
527 PM CST Sat Jan 27 2024 (Tonight) A cold front is just nosing into northwest Alabama as a weak band of convection has formed just along this boundary. A tornado threat remains very low and is strongly tied to the uncertainties with how much destabilization occurs -- along with what the low- level wind profile resembles.
530 PM EST Sat Jan 27 2024 -Fog may redevelop tonight, but should be mainly focused over the higher terrain of the interior west and east.
509 PM CST Sat Jan 27 2024 (This evening through Sunday) The broad upper level trough that brought ample rain has moved off to the southeastern US bringing clear conditions. Tomorrow, light westerly winds and clear skies are forecasted due to the slight upper level ridging moving into our FA. Above-average temperatures will return with increasing upper air heights ahead of a seasonably stubborn upper level high while low temperatures will remain around average with effective radiative cooling.
- Quiet and much warmer than normal temperatures will continue into early February. Overnight guidance continues to suggest that fog will redevelop as the low level moisture remains in place and winds remain light. Looking ahead, ridging builds out west. The highest temperatures should remain over the High Plains, with cooler temperatures over the Great Lakes region. With temperatures near to just below freezing, a freezing fog is expected once it forms. How low ceilings and visibility go is somewhat uncertain as the immediate area has stayed warmer thanks to the urban heat island and therefore saturation has been more elusive.
The region will be under an upper level ridge, continuing the trend of above normal temperatures.
A developing area of low pressure now moving NE across the eastern Ohio Valley. 3" - the higher amounts towards the west. With the surface front well east of the area, a noticeably cooler airmass has replaced a milder and more muggy environment of yesterday. These clouds basically have nearly all of the lower-48 under clouds, from east of NW MI, across much of IA, eastern KS/OK/TX. Highs today should only warm into the low/mid 40s. A steady W-NW wind of 10-20 mph should produce wind chill values 5-10 degrees cooler than the real temperature.
Temperatures were in the mid 70s with dewpoints in the lower 70s. Little has changed in the very short-range guidance including the HRRR concerning the weak pooling of moisture and maintenance of elevated dewpoints over relatively cooler sea surface temperatures. Florida Bay, on the otherhand, warmed into the upper 70s to near 80F at several spots, thus will be monitoring mainly the Gulf waters north of the Lower Keys for any fog and stratus development. This could begin to happen over the next several hours, although guidance insists the light southeast winds will resume especially after 06Z as 850 mb heights fall with the approach of the upper trough into the northern Gulf. The next cold front will push through the Florida Keys coastal waters late Sunday afternoon and Sunday evening, with freshened northwest to north breezes expected in its wake.
(Today through Monday) The large upper low is riding along the Ohio River Valley with some wrap around moisture bringing more light showers and drizzle to Middle Tennessee. Looking at soundings, only the near surface will be above freezing so I expect some snow showers to mix in with the rain showers especially in the higher elevations. Surface temperatures should remain above freezing so little to no accumulations or impacts are expected. The shower activity will come to an end overnight as the upper low moves east.
Temperatures in parts of the Milk River valley are currently in the lower teens. Looking ahead, a dirty upper level ridge of high pressure will be over the CWA on Sunday. Otherwise, a dirty ridge is building over MT, resulting in widespread cloud cover, which will continue to reside over the CWA through much of Sunday. Upper level ridging dominates The Treasure State. A series of perturbations rippling through the upper level pattern flattens out the ridge across The Northern Rocky Mountain Front, favoring some strong gusty westerly winds and some light precipitation, through much of the weekend.
1041 PM CST Sat Jan 27 2024 (Tonight through Sunday night) Breezy northwest winds behind a cold front continue this afternoon but speeds should begin to diminish shortly before sunset.
- Quiet weather with warmer than normal temperatures will continue into early February. Temperatures are some 5 to 10 degrees colder than this time yesterday, so freezing fog is more of a concern this morning and the MNDOT 511 map suggests that there are some slick spots. However, the stratus should make it a bit further east and should have at least a few more breaks than yesterday as warmer and drier air is advected in. Temperatures will warm into the upper 30s to low 40s, with areas along the Buffalo Ridge making a run at 50. Overnight, fog/freezing fog redevelops across central Minnesota and we may end up needing yet another Dense Fog Advisory. Temperatures being well above freezing for the past few days and only falling to near freezing overnight should largely limit the chance for freezing rain/ice accumulation.
- Generally warmer into the upcoming week Low stratus and areas of fog persist across central Iowa early this morning although some clearing is arriving in the far northwest. It does appear locations west of I35 should see sunshine today with the clearing extending toward the eastern reaches of the forecast area by later this afternoon as surface ridging passes into the state. The best threat is in the east closest to the ridge axis and where the deeper residual moisture resides.
1036 PM CST Sat Jan 27 2024 (This evening through Sunday) The broad upper level trough that brought ample rain has moved off to the southeastern US bringing clear conditions. Tomorrow, light westerly winds and clear skies are forecasted due to the slight upper level ridging moving into our FA. Above-average temperatures will return with increasing upper air heights ahead of a seasonably stubborn upper level high while low temperatures will remain around average with effective radiative cooling.
High pressure will build back through Deep South Texas through the short term period as a 500 mb trough continues to move northeast into the Mid-Atlantic. The cold front that came through last night will keep temperature slightly lower and dry air will continue to filter in through Monday. Overnight lows tonight and tomorrow will be noticeably cooler, with lows in the 40s.
252 AM EST Sun Jan 28 2024 -Fog may redevelop tonight, but should be mainly focused over the higher terrain of the interior west and east.
Some of these areas will also see temperatures fall to near or below freezing which could lead to a localized freezing fog threat by daybreak.
1150 PM CST Sat Jan 27 2024 GOES-16 Water vapor satellite trends depict an upper level low centered just northwest of Evansville, Indiana.
- Low chances (10-20%) for patchy drizzle/freezing drizzle this morning through tonight.
102 AM EST Sun Jan 28 2024 Low pressure will lift northeast from the Tennessee Valley to the upper Ohio Valley tonight. The low will then transition to a coastal low on Sunday. High pressure is forecast to build into the area on Monday. There is a dry slot before reaching additional precipitation on the back side of an upper low moving through the area. Winds will be fairly strong with gusts in western counties on the back side of the low. Pcpn will show a decreasing trend in coverage from west to east in the afternoon as the upper level low pulls off to the east. Lows will range from the lower to mid 30s.
Monday night, a upper level trough will dig through the Upper Midwest forcing a dry cold front through the forecast area.
- High pressure over the region will keep temperatures above normal through the week.
Surface winds have finally relaxed as high pressure settles in over South Central Texas early this morning.
/DL/ We will continue to see a drying trend in the wake of a surface cold front amid deep NW flow.
With the closed low center and its attendant upper trough (over Srn IN, and tailing SW into Ern AR) now beginning to pull away to the NE into the OH/TN Vallies overnight, additional erosion along the Wrn flank should continue, although clearing may not reach the Wrn zones (except for possibly the far Wrn sections of E TX) prior to daybreak. Thus, have added slight chance pops for this area through the remainder of the evening, before cigs begin to lift in response to a drying column courtesy of dry air entrainment beneath the upper trough from the W.
219 AM EST Sun Jan 28 2024 A strong cold front will move through the region overnight. A drier and cooler air mass will overspread the region behind an exiting cold front today. Early this morning: Cold front moving through the region with narrow broken line of showers associated with it. Today and tonight: A return to cooler temperatures will occur today behind the exiting cold front. Upper trough moving off the coast early Monday with northwest flow aloft. A dry air mass and surface pressure ridge will be building into the area.
930 PM CST Sat Jan 27 2024 (Tonight through Sunday night) Key Messages: - Small Craft Advisory remains in effect through Sunday morning Water vapor imagery this afternoon reveals a trough lifting across the Southeast US as a ridge nudges our way from the west. At the surface, high pressure is settling into the region and will hang around through the weekend. As a result, we will see some cooler temps the next couple of mornings with lows dropping into the mid 30s across the Victoria Crossroads and Coastal Plains to the mid 40s along the coast and across the Brush Country. Freezing temps don't appear likely this weekend with less than a 10% chance of seeing temps below 32F.
1130 PM CST Sat Jan 27 2024 GOES-16 Water vapor satellite trends depict an upper level low centered just northwest of Evansville, Indiana.
Most of the moisture will be confined to the higher elevations though, with only a 15 to 25 percent chance of 24-hour QPF reaching and/or exceeding 0. Highs will push into the low to mid 40s in the valley locations, so any precipitation here will fall as rain.
1030 PM CST Sat Jan 27 2024 - Freezing drizzle and fog look to reform/stay overnight, especially in Minnesota.
(Today through Monday) Latest ensembles/global models are in better agreement about having a deep trough/low complex pushing into the eastern seaboard and the Carolinas later today, while pushing an associated sfc boundary all the way into central/southern Florida by this afternoon. Thus, POPs/Wx coverage remains low with the highest POPs still hovering the low 20s. Winds continue to veer to the W/NW later today and into tonight in the wake of the FROPA as high pressure and benign weather conditions quickly establish across the region. But the drier/cooler air will not reach SoFlo in time to cool down highs this afternoon, which are still expected in the low 80s. Highs will likely remain in the low 70s, but could be lowered a bit depending on upcoming guidance.