Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
1257 AM EDT Mon Aug 25 2025 Low pressure will pull away from the area tonight. A cold front will clear the area Monday night with high pressure prevailing through much of the week. Dry conditions will prevail overnight, although weak troughiness will linger in the wake of departing low pressure. A digging upper level trough will be situated along the east coast on Monday, with our previous surface frontal boundary situated well off to our northeast. Dry conditions are expected as cooler (highs in the mid to upper 80s) and drier air (dewpoints in the 60s!) filters into the area.
403 AM EDT Mon Aug 25 2025 Cooler with scattered showers and a few thunderstorms possible today.
406 AM EDT Mon Aug 25 2025 - Cooler weather persists through much of the week.
Based on radar, the highest rain totals so far tonight have been around 2-3 inches for locations northwest of Gruver to east of Texhoma.
Longwave trough continues to sharpen across the Great Lakes with upper low anchored near James Bay. 850mb thermal trough overhead on Monday with H8 temperatures as cool as 4-5C. Monday will be the coolest day with some inland areas struggling into the lower 60s. We also have high pressure positioned southwest of our area, which is not an ideal position as it could inhibit the boundary layer from fully decoupling.
- A wetter and cooler pattern for the remainder of the week and through the weekend. WV imagery continues to show the broad ridging and northwest flow across the CWA extending from a high centered to the south over New Mexico.
329 AM CDT Mon Aug 25 2025 - Showers are possible (up to near 60% chance) today with the highest chances across north central Kansas. A big upper trough extends from over the northern and central Plains to the East Coast. The upper trough will still be over the area this afternoon with light winds present. Low temperatures tonight will be in the low to mid 50s with light winds. The upper trough will move further east on Tuesday with winds across south central and central Nebraska and north central Kansas mostly out of the south.
- For late this week and into the weekend, generally quiet weather is expected with high temperatures trending a bit below normal in the lower to mid 70s. When coupled with a cool start to the evening to begin with, widespread low temperatures in the upper 30s to the lower 40s are forecast, which is closer to the cooler edge of guidance supported by statistical MOS given good radiational cooling. Frost will be a concern across a greater portion of the Northland Monday night into Tuesday morning with a good radiational cooling setup with cool and dry high pressure at the surface.
(Today) A significant airmass change is currently underway as the TN Valley finds itself behind the first substantial cold front of the season. Current observations indicate the cold front has seeped just south of the CWA boarder working its way through central AL. Through the day today, the parent trough and attendant cold front will continue to push east and SE respectively. As such, NNW flow will remain dominate at both the surface and aloft ushering in a much cooler and drier late summer airmass. Sunrise temps will likely drop into the low 60s and perhaps even high 50s for our TN counties, about 5-10 degrees below normal. Our anomalous temps will continue into the day with the strong CAA limiting our highs to the low 80s to upper 70s.
1235 AM EDT Mon Aug 25 2025 - A very pleasant final week of climatological summer, with below normal temperatures and low humidity High pressure continues to dominate the region with prototypical diurnal trends still expected throughout the evening and tonight. Surface analysis this afternoon shows high pressure over the Dakotas with a ridge axis extending SE to MO/IL and Indiana. Dew points had fallen to the lower 50s due to mixing and subsidence. These conditions will also lead to good radiational cooling conditions and lows in the lower 50s. This will result in highs mainly in the lower 70s.
- Region will remain mainly dry through mid-week as Canadian high pressure remains in place. Latest satellite imagery shows broad 500hpa trough located across eastern half of the CONUS, with deep 500hpa 4-corner high pressure located across the southwest CONUS. At the surface, high pressure is located across the eastern Dakotas with light easterly/east-northeast surface flow and surface dewpoints in the upper 30s to mid 40s. There is a noted 700hpa theta-e ridge that slides quickly through in the nw flow with minor amounts of forcing. A developing western CONUS trough will work to begin to break down the strengthening 500hpa ridge. Coupled with disturbances moving through in the zonal flow pattern, and developing low pressure and eastward oriented boundary through the state, things will become more unsettled heading into the second half of the week.
a few colder sites 33-36 and a few warmer ones mid 40s. High pressure over eastern ND at 08z. 500 mb short wave moving in from the northwest is spreading some high clouds into E ND/RRV and seems to aiding keeping temps from falling as low as they could be under the high. High pressure drops southeast into eastern SD/southwest MN keeping a light wind over the area. Rest of the week sees a warm up as 500 mb ridge builds a bit north and east as the 500 mb low continues to move into eastern Canada. A cold front will drop south with this and NBM paints a low chance for a shower or t-storm in the Lake of the Woods area Wed aftn/eve.
538 AM EDT Mon Aug 25 2025 Cooler with scattered showers and a few thunderstorms possible today.
559 AM EDT Mon Aug 25 2025 - Cooler weather persists through much of the week.
Isolated showers and thunderstorms will remain possible through 07Z before dissipating overnight, with the highest threat to both KEED and KIFP.
618 AM EDT Mon Aug 25 2025 A noticeably cooler air mass will move into the region today and linger throughout most of the week. Key Messages: * Cooler and drier air moving into the Northeast US most of this week with on and off lake effect rain showers. Cooler temperatures are expected within periods of on and off lake effect rain showers and an abundance of lake induced clouds.
924 AM EDT Mon Aug 25 2025 A cold front exits east of the Appalachians early this morning. High pressure builds behind the front, supplying predominantly dry and refreshingly cool weather into the end of the week. A cold front pushes east of the Appalachians early this morning, ending any lingering precipitation and ushering in a significantly drier airmass. With the high pressure moving overhead, expect near calm flow, mostly clear skies and dense river valley fog development each morning. Refreshing afternoon temperatures will range from the mid to upper 70s across the lowlands, and low 70s to lower 60s northeast mountains. High pressure remains in control for several days into the weekend. This will encourage high temperatures to reach the low 80s once again in the Tri-State area, returning us to a more seasonable pattern for this time of year.
Isolated showers and thunderstorms will continue through the morning, followed by new storms developing over the higher terrain around noon.
602 AM EDT Mon Aug 25 2025 A cold front exits east of the Appalachians early this morning. High pressure builds behind the front, supplying predominantly dry and refreshingly cool weather into the end of the week. A cold front pushes east of the Appalachians early this morning, ending any lingering precipitation and ushering in a significantly drier airmass. With the high pressure moving overhead, expect near calm flow, mostly clear skies and dense river valley fog development each morning. Refreshing afternoon temperatures will range from the mid to upper 70s across the lowlands, and low 70s to lower 60s northeast mountains. High pressure remains in control for several days into the weekend. This will encourage high temperatures to reach the low 80s once again in the Tri-State area, returning us to a more seasonable pattern for this time of year.
High pressure over eastern ND at 08z. 500 mb short wave moving in from the northwest is spreading some high clouds into E ND/RRV and seems to aiding keeping temps from falling as low as they could be under the high. High pressure drops southeast into eastern SD/southwest MN keeping a light wind over the area. Rest of the week sees a warm up as 500 mb ridge builds a bit north and east as the 500 mb low continues to move into eastern Canada. A cold front will drop south with this and NBM paints a low chance for a shower or t-storm in the Lake of the Woods area Wed aftn/eve. Winds NW in the afternoon before flipping to S/SW as high pressure passes over the area late in the eveing towards the end of the TAF period.
927 AM EDT Mon Aug 25 2025 * Early fall wx starts today with westerly wind bringing in cooler, drier air * Mainly dry for all week.
539 AM CDT Mon Aug 25 2025 - An active pattern across the Southern Plains will lead to increasing rain chances later this week along with some intermittent cooler weather. Otherwise the rest of tonight should be quiet with temperatures falling into the low/mid 70s. The frontal boundary will sag southward through the day Tuesday, but mid level ridging will also nudge eastward into North Texas and will likely squash any additional widespread convective initiation attempts. High temperatures will top out in the mid 90s on Monday but should be several degrees cooler on Tuesday with readings in the low to mid 80s north of I-20 and upper 80s to low 90s south of I-20.
610 AM CDT Mon Aug 25 2025 Updated at 604 AM CDT Mon Aug 25 2025 - The effects of a cold front will be felt starting Monday afternoon, bringing a few showers and our first taste of fall weather.
942 AM EDT Mon Aug 25 2025 - A cooler and much drier air mass on the way into the area tonight will last through the upcoming week. Recent surface analysis shows the forecast area on the backside of a departing cold front. Highs today will climb into the mid-70s, while overnight lows will fall into the low to mid-50s, with some of the coldest valleys potentially seeing temperatures in the upper 40s. Temperatures will be 10 to 15 degrees cooler, giving the area a pleasant preview of autumn.
442 AM CDT Mon Aug 25 2025 Updated aviation portion for 12Z TAF issuance - Early fall temperatures are expected early this week with cooler temperatures.
727 AM EDT Mon Aug 25 2025 - A cooler and much drier air mass on the way into the area tonight will last through the upcoming week. Recent surface analysis shows the forecast area on the backside of a departing cold front. Highs today will climb into the mid-70s, while overnight lows will fall into the low to mid-50s, with some of the coldest valleys potentially seeing temperatures in the upper 40s. Temperatures will be 10 to 15 degrees cooler, giving the area a pleasant preview of autumn.
631 AM CDT Mon Aug 25 2025 - Showers are possible (up to near 60% chance) today with the highest chances across north central Kansas. A big upper trough extends from over the northern and central Plains to the East Coast. The upper trough will still be over the area this afternoon with light winds present. Low temperatures tonight will be in the low to mid 50s with light winds. The upper trough will move further east on Tuesday with winds across south central and central Nebraska and north central Kansas mostly out of the south.
623 AM CDT Mon Aug 25 2025 (Today through Tuesday) The cold front is moving through Central AL early this morning. This will lead to a slightly cooler and drier air mass across the area today and tomorrow. Overnight lows will drop into the low to mid 60s tonight with highs on Tuesday upper 70s in the north to mid 80s in the south. However, with very limited moisture return behind this initial cold front, widespread rain is not expected.
533 AM CDT Mon Aug 25 2025 (Today) A significant airmass change is currently underway as the TN Valley finds itself behind the first substantial cold front of the season. Current observations indicate the cold front has seeped just south of the CWA boarder working its way through central AL. Through the day today, the parent trough and attendant cold front will continue to push east and SE respectively. As such, NNW flow will remain dominate at both the surface and aloft ushering in a much cooler and drier late summer airmass. Sunrise temps will likely drop into the low 60s and perhaps even high 50s for our TN counties, about 5-10 degrees below normal. Our anomalous temps will continue into the day with the strong CAA limiting our highs to the low 80s to upper 70s.
634 AM CDT Mon Aug 25 2025 An upper level trough will dig southward through midweek. This will send a cold front into the area today, reaching the northern Gulf by Tuesday morning.
- Showers are possible (up to near 60% chance) today with the highest chances across north central Kansas. A big upper trough extends from over the northern and central Plains to the East Coast. The upper trough will still be over the area this afternoon with light winds present. Low temperatures tonight will be in the low to mid 50s with light winds. The upper trough will move further east on Tuesday with winds across south central and central Nebraska and north central Kansas mostly out of the south.
There may be some wrap around post-frontal clouds sliding through Thursday on southwest periphery of deep wave of frontal low pressure lifting northeast up across the Ohio River Valley, but no rainfall is expected. The pressure difference between the low and eastern nose of high pressure beginning to nudge in from the west suggests that west to northwest winds will continue to be gusty through the day Thursday.
922 PM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024 Cold front has pushed through the forecast area bringing cooler temperatures and lower dewpoints.
843 PM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024 (This evening through Thursday) A low pressure system will move across the southeast today with the center of the low slowly meandering northeast through the southern MS River Valley today and tonight. As the low pressure moves into the TN Valley this evening, a mid level jet will develop and strengthen over Alabama. Northwest flow will set up bringing cooler and drier air to the state with conditions feeling cooler than the past couple of days by the end of the short term.
616 PM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024 (Rest of today through Thursday) Chances of showers with isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible across mid state region through Thursday afternoon as surface frontal system now based across southern MS River Valley Region pushes northeastward and associated upper level low digs across southern MS River Valley Region northeastward into mid state region by morning hours on Thursday before pushing northeastward also.
Can't entirely rule out a few showers or storms over the next few hours over the extreme northwest portion of the CWA, associated with a jet max rotating around the upper low near Shreveport. We should finally dry out later tonight after a cold front finally pushes through the area and the trough axis moves across the Lower MS Valley.
These models predict synoptic/mesoscale descent over the CWA tonight through Thursday morning, as an upper disturbance lifts northeastward away from TX/AR/LA region and eventually merges with an upper trough to generate a high amplitude upper trough over the Midwest/Mississippi Valley Thursday. Further, in response to the foregoing upper system, a secondary surge of high pressure is expected over the region tonight/early Thursday. As the high amplitude trough continues to move eastward, an N-S oriented upper ridge axis will approach the region from the west Thursday night.
(The rest of tonight) Mid level trough axis slowly working eastward across the forecast area.
613 PM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024 (This evening through Thursday) Early this afternoon, skies were gradually clearing underneath an upper-level trough that was residing over west central Texas. Tomorrow, high pressure should gradually build in from the north. Given the lack of cloud cover expected, temperatures should be a bit warmer and reach the low 70s for the Big Country where the coolest airmass will be in place.
Pressure gradient will increase overnight and tomorrow ahead of a low pressure system moving through the area, likely kicking winds up overnight and through much of the day tomorrow. (Rest of today through Thursday) Chances of showers with isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible across mid state region through Thursday afternoon as surface frontal system now based across southern MS River Valley Region pushes northeastward and associated upper level low digs across southern MS River Valley Region northeastward into mid state region by morning hours on Thursday before pushing northeastward also.
(Rest of tonight) A mid/upper trough will pivot NE from the ArkLaMiss into the Mid South late tonight, with a threat for gusty/strong winds continuing into the morning hours on Thursday. While some partial clearing has occurred over the past couple of hours, satellite indicates the low clouds will quickly push back in, making for overcast conditions for the remainder of the night. Of greatest concern may be the higher terrain of the Cumberland Plateau where localized gusts up to 40-50 mph during the late tonight/early Thursday morning hours.
Precipitation should gradually taper off throughout the day tomorrow, as the axis of the upper level trough swings through the region.
650 PM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024 (This afternoon and Tonight ) Upper low over NE TX this afternoon will continue to move ENE this afternoon, and northeast through AR overnight. Showers and isolated to scattered storms will continue to fill in to the east and north of the upper system this afternoon, with a gradual shift in coverage from west to east this evening as the low lifts into AR. The upper low looks to deepen some tonight as it lifts northeast, which will tighten the pressure gradient at the surface.
Currently - An unusually amplified deep layered trough is working its way eastwards across the United States this evening and is pushing out an equally amplified ridge just off the Atlantic coast. Short Term Update - The previously mentioned amplified trough will continue to pivot through the eastern United States. For the time being, the Keys will remain within the awkward zone between the low to our northwest and north and the ridge off to our southeast and south. A workings its way into the eastern United States and a ridge off to our southeast and south will maintain moderate to fresh southeasterly breezes on Keys waters through the overnight period.
Cold front pushing through the CWA this afternoon. Beautiful weather upcoming Thursday and Friday as upper level ridge builds in from the west. With the even warmer 700mb temperatures Friday. Not looking at any weather hazards as the high continues to build over the area. May begin to see increasing fire weather concerns Friday with these warmer temperatures.
(Today) An upper level trough is forecast to continue to move eastward through the TN Valley this morning before lifting northeastward. CAMs are indicating these will continue through the early afternoon with the arrival of the cold front, bringing risks of lightning and brief, heavy rainfall.
(Today through Friday) Upper ridging will move over the Southern Plains today and Friday. At the surface, high pressure begins to move towards South Central Texas through the late afternoon, eventually settling east over the Gulf on Friday. Highs range from the upper 70s to low 80s in the eastern half of the area to the low to upper 80s further west.
148 AM EDT Thu Apr 11 2024 (06Z TAFS) Ahead of an approaching cold front, a strong gradient favors gusty winds through the day. Rapid improvement in conditions is expected as the storms and associated cold front clears out.
Expect warmer temperatures today with highs in the 70s to lower 80s.
1158 PM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024 (Rest of tonight) A mid/upper trough will pivot NE from the ArkLaMiss into the Mid South late tonight, with a threat for gusty/strong winds continuing into the morning hours on Thursday. While some partial clearing has occurred over the past couple of hours, satellite indicates the low clouds will quickly push back in, making for overcast conditions for the remainder of the night. Of greatest concern may be the higher terrain of the Cumberland Plateau where localized gusts up to 40-50 mph during the late tonight/early Thursday morning hours.
(Today through Friday afternoon) As the upper low continues to move off to the east, subsidence in its wake and a building ridge will maintain mostly clear skies. Mid-level ridging continues to build into Friday although with more clouds than today, with above average temperatures around 5 degrees above normal, and near or above 80 everywhere, along with 90s making an appearance over the Reeves County Plains and in the Rio Grande valleys.
Satellite imagery reveals an upper-level ridge overhead this afternoon with some thin cirrus streaking across the PacNW. Quiet weather is forecast tonight with the ridge in place. Thursday, ensemble guidance is in excellent agreement (99-100% chance) that the broad closed low currently located in the Gulf of Alaska will drop southeast towards the PacNW. Given the position of the offshore closed low, deep southwesterly flow aloft should facilitate a slight chance to chance (15-55%) of shower development for the mountains foothills as moisture increases.
Dry air in the lower levels will promote little rainfall/virga, with most locations not seeing more than a tenth of an inch. Upper ridging builds into the region Friday into the weekend allowing a warming trend to develop.
1251 AM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024 (This evening through Thursday) A low pressure system will move across the southeast today with the center of the low slowly meandering northeast through the southern MS River Valley today and tonight. As the low pressure moves into the TN Valley this evening, a mid level jet will develop and strengthen over Alabama. Northwest flow will set up bringing cooler and drier air to the state with conditions feeling cooler than the past couple of days by the end of the short term.
Current forecast has a good handle on this, but will be upping pops to better reflect the higher probability of precip than what is in the current forecast. Models have converged on better agreement with this track, which leaves central and southeast IL just NW of the low track. Winds will become fairly strong Thursday morning as the low passes by to the east and pressure gradients tighten, especially in east central IL.
Pattern Synopsis: Strong longwave troughing over the Mississippi Valley will progress over the southeast CONUS this morning and pivot up the Atlantic coast into tonight. An impressive coupled jet aloft will provide strong forcing aloft and quickly deepen the associated cyclone as it swings north into the Great Lakes today. On the other hand, those along the Lake Huron shoreline have the highest potential to see amounts of 1.
(Today through Friday) Today will be a mixed bag of weather with showers, some sun, wind, a few non-severe thunderstorms, and a cold frontal passage. Satellite imagery shows a cold core upper trough near the Mississippi River. Scattered to numerous showers will develop east of the upper trough, impacting mainly north Alabama throughout the day. Clearing and much cooler tonight with lows in the 40s. Sunny, breezy and warmer on Friday with highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s.
1058 PM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024 (This evening through Thursday) Rain chances will decrease rather quickly during the late afternoon and early evening, as an upper level low begins to move east of the area.
1210 AM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024 (The rest of tonight) Mid level trough axis slowly working eastward across the forecast area.