Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A cold front has moved through the area resulting in high temperatures being in the low-to-mid 70s today. A fairly tight pressure gradient between high pressure over the central Plains and low pressure over southern Ontario will lead to northwest winds being 10-15 mph today with gusts around 20 mph. Clear skies and low relative humidity values will allow for radiational cooling to produce low temperatures in the low 50s tonight.
327 AM EDT Fri Aug 9 2024 * Dry cold front passes through this morning, leading to lower humidity this afternoon and evening. * Very pleasant weekend with cooler temperatures and lower humidity. While we won't feel the effects of the cooler air behind this particular front today, a much drier (lower Td) airmass will sweep in from the northwest by late afternoon into the early overnight hours.
8 Deg C/km within the lowest 1 km. But, we should see some changes at the lower levels as a weak backdoor front moves in overnight.
(Today through Saturday) Drier air is trying to filter into the area behind a cold front. As for showers and storms, we should be limited to just the southeast in the afternoon, where the higher moisture pool will be.
1241 AM CDT Fri Aug 9 2024 (This evening through Saturday) A large upper ridge is over the southwest U. with an upper low over the upper Midwest and Tropical Storm Debby over the Carolinas. The upper ridge will move east Friday and Saturday it will be centered over Texas. A cold front in southeast Kansas will move through Arkansas tonight. This will mainly bring a reinforcing shot of cooler and drier air. Cooler temperatures are expected for Saturday.
Dry and relatively cooler weather follows for the weekend. A Flood Watch continues along the ridges east of Pittsburgh. The main period of steady, heavier rainfall is progged to be east of the ridges by around Noon today. 5" along some spots in the ridges, decreasing from east to west and ultimately zero by near the PA/OH border. KEY MESSAGES: - Drier and relatively cooler weather this weekend. __________________________________________________________ The trough to our west will become more established over the eastern Great Lakes and northeast CONUS this evening as surface ridging rides up the Ohio Valley. Dry weather and below- normal temperatures are then the expectation through the weekend as upper troughing slides by north of the region.
(The rest of tonight) A cold front has moved through most of the forecast area, and will continue moving south overnight.
A weak upper trough to the north will develop a 15-25% chance of showers and thunderstorms in Baker County Friday evening, spreading into Idaho north of the Snake Basin later Friday night, then increasing to a 30-50% chance in the Boise Mountains Saturday afternoon and early evening, clearing Saturday night.
Otherwise, low temperatures are forecast to range from the low 50s to mid-60s across much of northern Arizona's High Country. High pressure is centered over The Southwestern USA today with an easterly wave between Why and Rocky Point. High pressure will likely persist over the Southwest and into Texas through this weekend with scattered showers and thunderstorms each afternoon and evening across northern Arizona. The center of the high moves far enough east to bring some drier air into east-central Arizona on Saturday for a down-turn in storms from Payson to Winslow and eastward to the White Mountains.
50" possible along the higher terrain. The set-up is somewhat marginal, but with around a 15 degree temperature differential from water surface to 850mb, good upper low support, and locally boosted lake-induced CAPE and EL there could be an isolated spin-up.
- Moderate to major risk of heat-related impacts Mid to upper level ridging will remain in place as we head into the weekend. High temps look to settle into the low 90s along the coast to around 105 out west.
(Today through Saturday) Current synoptic conditions see the former Debby continuing her northward trek and absorption into the upper level trough moving eastward from the midwest into the Ohio Valley. The high over the southwest will build to the east. Locally, the high pressure will last through the end of the period and hold the high temperatures and lack of precipitation in place.
Currently, a large upper low is spinning over eastern Canada just north of the Great Lakes region. The main belt of the Westerlies resides over northern Canada with the southern stream flow generally across the northern tier of the CONUS with a mid to upper level trough working through the northern Plains into the upper MS Valley region. Tropical cyclone Debby is becoming extra-tropical as it lifts along the east coast into the Mid-Atlantic region. The southwestern monsoonal moisture should provide a sufficient source of moisture to maintain mid level cloud cover building atop the low level dry air now in place.
Debby is being absorbed into a larger upper level low centered over southern Ontario. This low will slowly rotate over the next 2 days and drift just a bit to the southeast, but remain mostly centered over the Great Lakes region. Highs will be in the 90s once again, cooler to the NW than towards central Georgia.
1257 AM CDT Fri Aug 9 2024 (This evening through Friday night) Tropical Depression Debby still in the vicinity of Charlotte this afternoon, with upper ridging over New Mexico. That ridging extends southeastward into the northwest Gulf of Mexico. The main impact with that will be to allow the ridging to the west to expand eastward slightly.
1022 mb high pressure is forecast to hold through sunrise Friday, with lowering overcast cloud decks expected through 7 am Friday. Relative humidity fields suggest thick cloud cover will prevail all day, especially south of K-96, as moisture overruns strong 1024 mb high pressure wedged and centered over SW KS. This is very difficult to accomplish this time of year, when normal highs are still in the lower to mid 90s. Give the air conditioners a break! Cool surface ridging remains in place Friday night into Saturday, with light east/southeast winds continuing. Cool high pressure will hold most of Saturday, only breaking loose by late afternoon, such that high temperatures will be restricted to the 70s for most zones (15-20 degrees below normal for August).
(Friday through Saturday) A backdoor cold front has moved across most of the forecast area this morning with the exception of the western fringes of Smith, Cherokee, and Angelina Counties in East Texas. However, daytime high temperatures are still expected to be in the lower to mid 90s today. With a broad upper ridge centered over the Desert Southwest, northwesterly flow aloft prevails. The ridge should elongate and flatten somewhat overnight Friday and into Saturday. As yet another perturbation in the flow moves across the Plains, this may allow for some scattered convection to brush portions of Southeast Oklahoma Saturday afternoon, but the higher rain chances are expected to be much farther north of the area. Combined with the lower dewpoints, heat index values should remain below advisory criteria. The center of an elongated upper-level ridge will gradually migrate eastward.
1140 PM CDT Thu Aug 8 2024 (Tonight through Saturday night) Starting with the overall pattern, not much has changed; aloft a 500 mb ridge is still parked overhead but is weakening. This is the climatological peak of summer, so stay hydrated and cool! At the surface, a weak cold front is currently moving across the region as it is pulled south. The lower humidity will also drop our heat index values below advisory levels, leading to "nicer" conditions than we have had the past few weeks. PoPs remain on the low side each afternoon as dry air and high pressure will suppress convection with PoPs around 10%.
Meanwhile, a surface cold front is slated to move over the Tennessee Valley this morning.
1219 AM CDT Fri Aug 9 2024 (The rest of tonight) A cold front has moved through most of the forecast area, and will continue moving south overnight.
As the upper low meanders east, we should stay dry and mostly sunny through the weekend.
1146 PM CDT Thu Aug 8 2024 (This evening through Friday night) Tropical Depression Debby still in the vicinity of Charlotte this afternoon, with upper ridging over New Mexico. That ridging extends southeastward into the northwest Gulf of Mexico. The main impact with that will be to allow the ridging to the west to expand eastward slightly.
1056 PM CDT Thu Aug 8 2024 - Cooler and pleasant through the weekend, with highs in the upper 60s to mid 70s and lows in the upper 40s and 50s.
The low- level ridge axis remains to the south of the Florida Keys. A ridge axis associated with expansive high pressure over the western North Atlantic will remain in the vicinity of South Florida today through Saturday, resulting in light to gentle, generally southerly breezes.
A few headaches have occurred in the forecast leading to a significant decrease in precipitation coverage for the lower elevations. This is mainly due to the upper level trough remaining too far north which removing our forcing. Cooler temperatures continue today and overnight. There will be a general slow warming/drying trend as the upper ridge strengthens a bit.
647 AM CDT Fri Aug 9 2024 (Today through Saturday Night) A cold front continued to drop southward acrs AR during the overnight hrs, allowing a reinforcing shot of slightly cooler and drier air to start advecting into the FA. The Mid-South wl stay under a W/NW mid lvl flow pattern as a flat upper rdg rmns centered acrs TX, and an upper low meanders north of the Great Lakes region. Highs today wl be close to seasonal norms, ranging fm the mid 80s to the lower 90s.
633 AM CDT Fri Aug 9 2024 Today and tonight: Quiet conditions will continue as drier air filters into the area from the troughing resulting in northwesterly flow aloft. Temps will remain on the cooler side slightly below seasonal averages across the northern portions of the CWA with temps only warming into the low to mid 90s.
An area of high pressure continues to sit over the Southwestern US. This ridge will gradually shift eastward over the next couple of days (centering over Texas), shifting the greater coverage for storms to be along and west of a Black Canyon City- FLagstaff- Page line.
538 AM CDT Fri Aug 9 2024 - Very pleasant weather with below normal temperature and humidity levels is expected today through this weekend following the passage of a dry cold front.
624 AM CDT Fri Aug 9 2024 (Today and tonight) Weak cold front just north of I-20 early this morning will continue to sag south into West Central Texas today. Still very hot, but at least cooler than the last few days.
628 AM CDT Fri Aug 9 2024 A cold front will pass through the Midsouth tonight, bringing less humid and slightly cooler conditions for the weekend.
624 AM CDT Fri Aug 9 2024 (Today through Saturday) A mid to upper level ridge centered over north and central Texas will continue to remain in place throughout the short term period.
Scattered TSRA will cross the peninsula from W-E and the highest coverage should occur along the coast where they intersect with the sea breeze aft 20Z, possibly requiring TEMPOs for a couple terminals (MLB-SUA). High temperatures climb a few degrees above normal, mostly in the low to mid 90s this afternoon.
612 AM CDT Fri Aug 9 2024 (Today) Cooler and drier air continues to filter into the region behind the recent cold frontal passage and prevailing northerly winds. The most likely scenario is that this development remains west of the forecast area, although there is a low chance of development into far southeast Oklahoma this morning, given the location of the low level moisture and instability axis just to the west.
Scattered TSRA will cross the peninsula from W-E and the highest coverage should occur along the coast where they intersect with the sea breeze aft 20Z, possibly requiring TEMPOs for a couple terminals (MLB-SUA). The western Atlantic ridge axis gradually builds northward across the local waters through late week.
648 AM EDT Fri Aug 9 2024 - - Turning cooler and windy with increasing lake-enhanced shower chances. - Scattered showers (perhaps an isolated storm), cooler temperatures, and breezy winds this weekend. Mid level low/deep troughing will essentially pivot across central Ontario and northern Lake Superior into tonight, sending a rather respectable shot of mid-summer chill across the Northwoods into the start of this weekend. However, cloud depths do look deep enough (especially on Lake Superior) that when combined with that passing trough tonight. Lows tonight mostly in the lower and middle 50s. Pattern Synopsis and Forecast: Deep, fall-looking, upper low with various internal spokes of energy will reside in the vicinity and just to the north of northern Michigan.
1022 mb high pressure is forecast to hold through sunrise Friday, with lowering overcast cloud decks expected through 7 am Friday. Relative humidity fields suggest thick cloud cover will prevail all day, especially south of K-96, as moisture overruns strong 1024 mb high pressure wedged and centered over SW KS. This is very difficult to accomplish this time of year, when normal highs are still in the lower to mid 90s. Give the air conditioners a break! Cool surface ridging remains in place Friday night into Saturday, with light east/southeast winds continuing. Cool high pressure will hold most of Saturday, only breaking loose eastward by late afternoon, such that high temperatures will be restricted to the 70s for most zones (15-20 degrees below normal for August).
554 AM EDT Fri Aug 9 2024 - Breezy and cooler on Saturday with westerly wind gusts around 30 mph. Lingering pockets of VFR cloud within the immediate wake of a cold frontal passage will steadily vacate the region through the morning period as drier air arrives.
645 AM EDT Fri Aug 9 2024 * Dry cold front passes through this morning, leading to lower humidity this afternoon and evening. * Very pleasant weekend with cooler temperatures and lower humidity. While we won't feel the effects of the cooler air behind this particular front today, a much drier (lower Td) airmass will sweep in from the northwest by late afternoon into the early overnight hours.
426 AM CDT Fri Aug 9 2024 Today and tonight: Quiet conditions will continue as drier air filters into the area from the troughing resulting in northwesterly flow aloft. Temps will remain on the cooler side slightly below seasonal averages across the northern portions of the CWA with temps only warming into the low to mid 90s.
600 AM CDT Fri Aug 9 2024 (Today through Saturday) The Subtropical Ridge remains just to our northwest today through Saturday.
1018 AM EDT Fri Aug 9 2024 - Turning cooler and windy with increasing lake-enhanced shower chances. - Scattered showers (perhaps an isolated storm), cooler temperatures, and breezy winds this weekend. Mid level low/deep troughing will essentially pivot across central Ontario and northern Lake Superior into tonight, sending a rather respectable shot of mid-summer chill across the Northwoods into the start of this weekend. However, cloud depths do look deep enough (especially on Lake Superior) that when combined with that passing trough tonight. Lows tonight mostly in the lower and middle 50s. Pattern Synopsis and Forecast: Deep, fall-looking, upper low with various internal spokes of energy will reside in the vicinity and just to the north of northern Michigan.
649 AM CDT Fri Aug 9 2024 (Today through Saturday) Current synoptic conditions see the former Debby continuing her northward trek and absorption into the upper level trough moving eastward from the midwest into the Ohio Valley. The high over the southwest will build to the east. Locally, the high pressure will last through the end of the period and hold the high temperatures and lack of precipitation in place.
1048 AM EDT Fri Aug 9 2024 * Dry cold front passes through this morning, leading to lower humidity this afternoon and evening. * Very pleasant weekend with cooler temperatures and lower humidity. The cold front has pushed through the region this morning, leaving some scattered low-level clouds, drier air (lower dew points in the low-mid 60s), and northwesterly winds. While we won't feel the effects of the cooler air behind this particular front today, a much drier (lower Td) airmass will sweep in from the northwest by late afternoon into the early overnight hours.
1211 PM CDT Fri Aug 9 2024 (Today through Saturday Night) A cold front continued to drop southward acrs AR during the overnight hrs, allowing a reinforcing shot of slightly cooler and drier air to start advecting into the FA. The Mid-South wl stay under a W/NW mid lvl flow pattern as a flat upper rdg rmns centered acrs TX, and an upper low meanders north of the Great Lakes region. Highs today wl be close to seasonal norms, ranging fm the mid 80s to the lower 90s.
Mejia (Today) Cooler and drier air continues to filter into the region behind the recent cold frontal passage and prevailing northerly winds. The most likely scenario is that this development remains west of the forecast area, although there is a low chance of development into far southeast Oklahoma this morning, given the location of the low level moisture and instability axis just to the west.
Have kept 15 to 25 percent POPs south of I-70 for Saturday morning, but the higher probabilities for precipitation will remain across southern KS.
Discussion: Broad upper level troughing building across the Great Lakes region has guided a weak frontal boundary through the forecast area.
326 PM EDT Fri Aug 9 2024 - Breezy and cooler on Saturday with westerly wind gusts around 30 mph.
High pressure will move across the Mid-Mississippi Valley over the weekend bringing dry weather and below normal temperatures for the Mid-South.
407 PM EDT Fri Aug 9 2024 - Dry weather and cooler than normal conditions persist this weekend.
Warm and humid southwesterlies persist across the Keys, with most locations in the lower 90s. The low-level ridge axis will lift northward (now near the northern coast of Cuba) into Florida over the next 24-48 hours.
(This evening through Saturday) Yesterday's cold front and last night's convection has through a wrench into today's forecast. 1 PM temperatures for many areas are 20+ degrees cooler than the were 24 hours ago as the warmest temp so far today is 88 degrees at Aspermont. Even more drastic is temps across the central and northern Texas Panhandle where 1 PM temps average in the low to mid 60s thanks to cloud cover. Convection is expected to be maintained under the trough as it pushes into the Texas Panhandle. Currently Highs in the low to mid 90s are expected.
109 PM CDT Fri Aug 9 2024 (Today and tonight) Weak cold front just north of I-20 early this morning will continue to sag south into West Central Texas today. Still very hot, but at least cooler than the last few days.
157 PM EDT Fri Aug 9 2024 - Breezy and cooler on Saturday with westerly wind gusts around 30 mph. FEW to SCT VFR diurnal cumulus developed this afternoon supported by the inbound cooler air aloft and lake enhanced moisture in the west northwest winds.
ARS A cold front will pass through the Midsouth tonight, bringing less humid and slightly cooler conditions for the weekend.
Temperatures are warming through the 60s, into the low 70s at a few locations. Between now and Saturday night there will only be a slight shift east in the region for said high pressure, which will open the door for some return flow/mid-level WAA forced nocturnal elevated ACCAS showers/storms down over central or south central South Dakota late Saturday night, although confidence in this scenario yielding storms is rather low (not a real good signal for this) at this time. Otherwise the short term is a dry and continued cooler than normal forecast period.
An upper low will meander around southeast Ontario and southwest Quebec during the period, with a broad trough around it over much of the eastern CONUS.
1150 AM CDT Fri Aug 9 2024 (Today through Saturday) The Subtropical Ridge remains just to our northwest today through Saturday.
Cooler temperatures will prevail through the period.
(Tonight through Saturday night) A mid to upper level ridge over northern and central Texas is expected to remain in place through the short term forecast period. The low-level humidity will cause the heat indices to go up to near Heat Advisory criteria around 110. As for the actual temperatures for the short term forecast, the high temperatures are expected to be in the the upper 90s for most of the region, with the western counties more likely to tip toe into the the triple digits. The low temperatures for tonight and tomorrow night are expected to be in the 70s with a few places getting into the low 80s.
(This afternoon through Saturday) Broad troughing extends across the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes regions with elongated ridging extended from the Desert Southwest through the Lower MS River Valley producing height rises across the Southeast.
225 PM EDT Fri Aug 9 2024 * Very pleasant weekend with cooler temperatures and lower humidity. The 'cool' front brought drier conditions (dew points in the low-mid 60s) and slightly below normal temperatures to the region. High temperatures will be in the low 80s. Conditions will remain dry with very little moisture and high pressure overhead.
Deep ridging from the mid to upper levels along with the weak stationary front in the general vicinity of SE TX will help to keep hot and humid conditions in the forecast for tomorrow. Highs on Sat could be a bit "cooler".
1215 PM EDT Fri Aug 9 2024 Debby pushes to the northeast today, then cooler and drier air arrives by Saturday, and will bring more tranquil weather for the weekend. Debby will continue to increase in forward speed as it begins to interact with an incoming trough over the Great Lakes. Drier and cooler air arrives tonight begin the front with dew points dropping into the upper 50s in the mountains to mid/low 60s in the east. Some ongoing river flooding will continue into tonight as river levels continue to rise, mainly along the lower Roanoke and Dan Rivers.
Weak ridging will remain in place across the Northern Rockies the rest of the afternoon and evening.
236 PM MDT Fri Aug 9 2024 Satellite imagery shows modest ridge building over SW MT with a stream of moisture out of Idaho into southern MT and northern WY. The main weather feature for the weekend is a Pacific NW trough which is expected to track into the inter-mountain Rockies by Saturday afternoon.
Chances for isolated showers and thunderstorms continues through the evening focused over the eastern half of the area where the highest moisture is seen. The surface front looks to stall just north of the area tonight, lifting north as a warm front during the day Saturday.
* Dry cold front passes through this morning, leading to lower humidity this afternoon and evening. * Very pleasant weekend with cooler temperatures and lower humidity. The cold front has pushed through the region this morning, leaving some scattered low-level clouds, drier air (lower dew points in the low-mid 60s), and northwesterly winds. While we won't feel the effects of the cooler air behind this particular front today, a much drier (lower Td) airmass will sweep in from the northwest by late afternoon into the early overnight hours.
1229 PM CDT Fri Aug 9 2024 - Very pleasant weather with below normal temperature and humidity levels is expected today through this weekend following the passage of a dry cold front.
High pressure will gradually build into the area this weekend. The flash flood and tornado threats have largely diminished as the low-level shear has abated and PWs/forcing have begun to decrease. A cold front will approach from the west this afternoon. High pressure is expected to build into the region this weekend. The big story this weekend will be the lower humidity.
Convection gets going again Saturday afternoon as highs climb into the low 80s.
- Cooler pattern on tap through the next few days.