Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Cooler air filtering in from the north and clearing skies will lead to some low temperatures tonight in the 30s potentially for some in the north. but in the lower 40s for most everyone else.
From synopsis, an early season Canadian high pressure system will continue to traverse the eastern United States over the next few days. As the high moves into the Atlantic late week and over the weekend, breezes will slacken.
237 PM EDT Thu Aug 28 2025 Showers and cooler air will move into the region tonight and Friday as a cold front passes through the area. High pressure with dry and progressively milder weather is expected for the upcoming weekend. A cold front is expected to pass through the area west-to-east tonight into Friday morning. The frontal boundary arrives this evening, and will bring much cooler air that will funnel into our area. Although we are currently sitting at below average temperatures, high temperatures are only expected to reach into the low to upper 60s Friday. The upper level trough kicks off to the north and east, settling almost stationary just north of New England.
Cold front has nearly left the forecast area with some widely scattered, but persistent showers and storms noted just ahead of it mainly SW of a line from Celina to Holgate, Ohio. Cold front near the Michigan border will track south through the area mid afternoon through early evening. Northerly post-frontal flow will usher in another round of cooler and drier air into Friday with highs struggling to reach 70F. Kept with partly cloudy wording for now given the low confidence and rather thin/shallow moisture profile.
A weak low pressure circulation and corresponding convergence pushing southward through Southeast Michigan has brought a period of showers and thunderstorms. Differential cold advection in the low levels this evening with the loss of daytime heating will quickly end rain chances. Cold front continues to sink south across the area this afternoon generating a healthy coverage of light to moderate showers in advance. Fairly significant cold advection follows overnight into Friday as 850mb temps fall from 8C to around 2C tied to thermal troughing dropping due south out of northern Ontario. Otherwise building high pressure keeps the rest of the region dry.
642 PM CDT Thu Aug 28 2025 (This evening through Friday night) Current upper level analysis shows longwave trough over the eastern third/half of the country and ridge centered south of West Texas. This will dig the base of trough farther south which slightly weakens the eastern edge of the ridge. Going into the evening however, surface cooling induced inversion in the low levels should limit gusty wind potential. However, coverage looks to persist into the evening and overnight hours as a backdoor frontal boundary associated with that trough to the east pushes into central LA and southern MS.
753 PM EDT Thu Aug 28 2025 A cold front will cross the area tonight.
The low-levels will remain quite dry. Looking ahead to Friday, the aforementioned cold front will gradually sag into the Commonwealth during the day and may linger over the area for most of Friday night. Moisture will remain limited on Friday, but some model soundings are favorable for a cumulus field of sufficient depth ahead of the cold front to produce a few sprinkles around peak diurnal heating.
Over the weekend, the ridge that has been anchored near and just to the east of the Four Corners is progged to retrograde westward, building in amplitude over the Desert Southwest.
A short wave embedded withing the long wave trough is passing to our west this evening. An upper trough will swing through the mid state during the next several hours, but rain chances remain minimal owing to the dry, stable air mass that has settled across the region. Temperatures tomorrow will be slightly warmer than today, but still quite pleasant owing to a cool morning and low afternoon RH values, especially in areas west of I-65.
505 PM CDT Thu Aug 28 2025 - There may be an isolated shower or two on Friday afternoon in the vicinity of a back door cold front moving through the area. A short wave trough is digging through the Ohio Valley into the base of the long wave. The leading edge of this high will be a back door cold front that is expected to drift from southern Wisconsin south-southwest through much of Illinois tonight. Louis, and highs in the low to mid 80s.
724 PM EDT Thu Aug 28 2025 Cool high pressure builds into the region today, before sliding offshore late today through late week. Aloft, a broad trough sits over the eastern half of the CONUS and dips down nearly to Florida. Cooler autumn like weather continues with the latest obs indicating temps in the mid 70s.
/issued 102 PM PDT Thu Aug 28 2025/ The upper low over the Pacific Northwest will be displaced northward as high pressure builds over the region.
740 PM EDT Thu Aug 28 2025 High pressure will slide to the east tonight. Upper level low pressure will drop south from Quebec on Friday then slowly cross the area this weekend.
- Temperatures warm a couple degrees today, but return cooler Tomorrow.
725 PM EDT Thu Aug 28 2025 High pressure will extend across the area as a stationary front lingers well to the south and offshore. This low should progress along with the motion of the front and move offshore by Friday. The stalled front and the developing low pressure will be the focuses for showers and thunderstorms this weekend. It's still uncertain how much coverage there will be as it's very dependent on the evolution of this low.
712 PM EDT Thu Aug 28 2025 High pressure will keep us dry and cooler than normal to close out the workweek. Based of upper trough axis shifts east and more of southwest to west flow should keep a few cumulus clouds around during the day Friday with temperatures warming into the 70s in the mountains to lower 80s east, still a few degrees below normal.
800 PM EDT Thu Aug 28 2025 A weak cold front approaches tonight into Friday bringing a chance for light rain, mainly to the north. A reinforcing cold front will be approaching from the northwest this evening. This afternoon across the lowlands, dew point temperatures will drop very low again, likely to the lower and middle 40s. RH values will drop to the upper 20s and lower 30s by the late afternoon and early evening, before recovering tonight in the wake of the cold front. Friday will be another dry and comfortably cool day with highs ranging from the middle 70s in the mountains to the lower 80s in the lowlands.
Meanwhile, the lower level Atlantic ridge remains across South Florida and into the southeastern Gulf while weak ridging is in place aloft. Temperatures and humidity will remain seasonal with lows in the lower 80s and dew points in the mid to upper 70s. Weak ridging centered over the northern Gulf and weak troughing off the southeast Atlantic Coast will maintain light east to southeasterly breezes across Keys waters through the overnight period.
817 PM EDT Thu Aug 28 2025 * Chilly fall-like pattern with low humidity continues through the end of August * Reinforcing cold front to bring showers late today and early tonight: best chance north of I-80/west of I-99 * Meteorological Fall (September 1) kicks off with continued pleasant and dry conditions. * Cooler than normal temperatures likely to prevail into the first weekend in September. Weak West-Southwest low to mid level warm advection pattern ahead of a cold front was leading to a fairly thick layer of mid level (altocu and altostratus) clouds advancing ESE across Central and NW PA. By the time the front arrives in the Lower Susq Fri morning, there won't be much moisture left and forcing will be long gone up into NY/New England. Maxes Fri will be much cooler than Thurs.
Cooler temperatures remain areawide. A cold front is making a better push southward across the Texas Panhandle and is becoming better defined across parts of west central and southwestern Oklahoma (between Erick and Hobart. Temperatures have already soared into the lower and mid 90s across western north Texas. So the bottom line is strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to form along a cold front/outflow boundary by early to mid afternoon.
742 PM EDT Thu Aug 28 2025 A cold front will drop southeast through the area this afternoon/evening and into the overnight with a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Cooler temperatures will be in place through the weekend as well.
Water vapor imagery shows broad upper ridging in the Northern High Plains into interior Canada, with eastern Dakotas into Minnesota under subsident, weak northwest flow aloft. Through the weekend, ensemble guidance continues to agree in general weak flow aloft as upper ridging transitions west through interior Canada into eastern Canada, sliding across the northern fringes of weak upper troughing over the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic.
719 PM EDT Thu Aug 28 2025 A weak cold front approaches tonight into Friday bringing a chance for light rain, mainly to the north. A reinforcing cold front will be approaching from the northwest this evening. This afternoon across the lowlands, dew point temperatures will drop very low again, likely to the lower and middle 40s. RH values will drop to the upper 20s and lower 30s by the late afternoon and early evening, before recovering tonight in the wake of the cold front. Friday will be another dry and comfortably cool day with highs ranging from the middle 70s in the mountains to the lower 80s in the lowlands.
730 PM EDT Thu Aug 28 2025 Rain showers and cooler air will move into the region tonight and Friday as a cold front passes through the area. High pressure with dry and progressively milder weather is expected for the upcoming weekend.
637 PM EDT Thu Aug 28 2025 A weak cold front approaches tonight into Friday bringing a chance for light rain, mainly to the north. A reinforcing cold front will be approaching from the northwest this evening. This afternoon across the lowlands, dew point temperatures will drop very low again, likely to the lower and middle 40s. RH values will drop to the upper 20s and lower 30s by the late afternoon and early evening, before recovering tonight in the wake of the cold front. Friday will be another dry and comfortably cool day with highs ranging from the middle 70s in the mountains to the lower 80s in the lowlands.
Otherwise, the combination of a weak upper level wave moving through and all the low level moisture will lead to another opportunity of evening storms. Have the highest pops (~80%) for the far western counties this evening.
107 AM EDT Fri Aug 29 2025 A cold front will move through the region this morning, producing spotty showers or areas of drizzle. KEY MESSAGES: - Advancing cold front this morning - Drier conditions late morning into late evening - High confidence in below average temperatures --------------------------------------------------------------- Based on surface observations, a cold front is currently situated over Lake Erie early this morning. With clouds and advancing cool air aloft in the wake of the front, expect below average temperatures this afternoon with wind gusts ranging between 20-25mph northeast of Pittsburgh and in the higher terrain. KEY MESSAGES: - Light rain early Friday morning - Cool temperatures continue - Below average temperatures expected Saturday ---------------------------------------------------------------- High pressure will resume behind the cold front that moved through with cooler temperatures expected.
Cold front near the Michigan border will track south through the area mid afternoon through early evening. Northerly post-frontal flow will usher in another round of cooler and drier air into Friday with highs struggling to reach 70F. Kept with partly cloudy wording for now given the low confidence and rather thin/shallow moisture profile. Ensemble guidance and the bulk of deterministic solutions continue to amplify an upper trough into the Eastern US during the mid-late week periods.
Broad roughing over the Great Lakes will keep northern Michigan locked in a much cooler than normal airmass through today. Despite plenty of sunshine developing through the day, the cold pool aloft will hold surface temperatures below late summer normals, with afternoon highs only making it into the low to mid 60s. Winds will be lighter than yesterday, but still carry a northerly component, keeping conditions feeling cooler. Skies remain generally clear through tonight as high pressure slides overhead, providing an ideal setup for radiational cooling with calm winds and dry air. High pressure will remain the dominant feature through the holiday weekend, ensuring a prolonged stretch of quiet and increasingly pleasant weather. Saturday morning will start off chilly with 30s and 40s common, but sunshine and a moderating airmass will push afternoon highs back into the low 70s.
232 AM EDT Fri Aug 29 2025 A cold front currently moving west to east across the area will continue bringing light rain showers through this morning, with cooler air moving in through the day. High pressure with dry and progressively milder weather is expected for the upcoming weekend. Currently, a cold front sweeps across our area, bringing light rain showers on radar. Well below average temperatures expected for today after the passage of the cold front. High temperatures are only expected to reach into the low to high 60s, with some higher elevations only in the high 50s, and NE PA valleys in the low 70s.
Pattern aloft continues to feature longwave troughing over the E U.
220 AM EDT Fri Aug 29 2025 Upper level low pressure will drop south from Quebec today then slowly cross the region this weekend.
- A bit cooler today with highs in the low 70s (slightly cooler in the upper 60s) today before temperatures gradually warm into the holiday weekend. Highs in the low 80s by Labor Day.
An analysis of regional surface observations show a backdoor cold front advancing west through central Illinois at this hour. While the air behind it is not significantly cooler, drier dewpoints will accompany this frontal passage. Aloft, dry northwest flow resulting from a very amplified ridge-trough pattern spanning the CONUS continues to promote largely-tranquil conditions in the Mississippi Valley. The only sensible weather of "concern" in the next 36 hours will be the threat for isolated showers along the cold front this afternoon. MRB The trough currently situated over the Great Lakes region begins to advance downstream by late Saturday, leading to a dampening in the amplified upper-level flow pattern.
1241 AM EDT Fri Aug 29 2025 A cold front will move through the region this morning, producing spotty showers or areas of drizzle. KEY MESSAGES: - Advancing cold front this morning - Drier conditions late morning into late evening - High confidence in below average temperatures --------------------------------------------------------------- Based on surface observations, a cold front is currently situated over Lake Erie early this morning. With clouds and advancing cool air aloft in the wake of the front, expect below average temperatures this afternoon with wind gusts ranging between 20-25mph northeast of Pittsburgh and in the higher terrain. KEY MESSAGES: - Light rain early Friday morning - Cool temperatures continue - Below average temperatures expected Saturday ---------------------------------------------------------------- High pressure will resume behind the cold front that moved through with cooler temperatures expected.
Presently, rain chances range from 20-50%, with the highest chances in Southeast New Mexico and the northern Permian Basin.
(Today through Saturday) Upper troughing continued from Quebec Canada to Florida this evening, with ridging along the lee side of the Rockies, virtually unchanged from last night. Evening dew points were generally in the lower and middle 70s, which wasn't much different than last night.
1232 AM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025 - Cooler today with temperatures across the Big Country in the mid 80s to mid 90s, elsewhere in the mid to upper 90s. - Rain chances will increase across the area Friday into the weekend, along with cooler temperatures. (Today and Tonight) A cold front will continue to track through the southern portions of the Big Country and Northern portions of the Conch Valley and Heartland this morning, with lingering showers and thunderstorms developing along the front as it tracks southward.
At the surface, high pressure is centered over the Great Lakes with a cold front stretching across central TX with another surge of cold air pushing into the Upper Mississippi Valley. Medium range models remain consistent in a digging down a very deep upper low over the Western Great Lakes region for Wed into Wed night.
Warmer this afternoon with highs in the mid to upper 70s. 5-10 degrees warmer than yesterday in most areas.
Currently, there is weak upper-level ridging with the ridge axis over the Central and Southern Rockies, keeping our area in northwesterly flow aloft. As we move into tonight, expansive cloud cover will remain with low temperatures in the lower 60s. As this weak upper-level ridging continues into Friday and Saturday, temperatures will slowly rise back into the mid to upper 70s on Friday with highs closer to 80 on Saturday.
Drier conditions and clearing skies will help boost temperatures across southeast California and southwest Arizona Friday with forecast highs climbing to around 100-105 degrees across the lower deserts Friday afternoon.
400 AM EDT Fri Aug 29 2025 A cold front will move through the region this morning, producing spotty showers or areas of drizzle. KEY MESSAGES: - Advancing cold front this morning - Drier conditions late morning into late evening - High confidence in below average temperatures --------------------------------------------------------------- Based on surface observations, a cold front is currently situated over Lake Erie early this morning. With clouds and advancing cool air aloft in the wake of the front, expect below average temperatures this afternoon with wind gusts ranging between 20-25mph northeast of Pittsburgh and in the higher terrain. Temperatures will trend a bit warmer than Friday but remain below seasonal averages under northerly flow aloft.
By Saturday, the pattern is relatively unchanged, but the broad trough axis will begin to shift east of Central Alabama.
- Cooler today with temperatures across the Big Country in the mid 80s to mid 90s, elsewhere in the mid to upper 90s. - Rain chances will increase across the area Friday into the weekend, along with cooler temperatures. (Today and Tonight) A cold front will continue to track through the southern portions of the Big Country and Northern portions of the Conch Valley and Heartland this morning, with lingering showers and thunderstorms developing along the front as it tracks southward.
- Scattered thunderstorms are possible north of I-20 this evening as a cold front moves into the area. - Rain chances will increase across the area Friday into the weekend, along with cooler temperatures. (Tonight through Saturday) A cold front will continue to track through the southern portions of the Big Country and Northern portions of the Conch Valley and Heartland this morning, with lingering showers and thunderstorms developing along the front as it tracks southward.
A rather broad upper trough will persist over the eastern US through the weekend slowly pushing a surface cold front through the area.
154 AM EDT Fri Aug 29 2025 Rain showers and cooler air will move into the region tonight and Friday as a cold front passes through the area. High pressure with dry and progressively milder weather is expected for the upcoming weekend.
Rainfall amounts have generally been light with areas across the lower Colorado River Valley and Mohave County generally receiving less than a tenth of an inch.
1010 PM CDT Thu Aug 28 2025 - There may be an isolated shower or two on Friday afternoon in the vicinity of a back door cold front moving through the area. A short wave trough is digging through the Ohio Valley into the base of the long wave. The leading edge of this high will be a back door cold front that is expected to drift from southern Wisconsin south-southwest through much of Illinois tonight. Louis, and highs in the low to mid 80s.
The low stratus deck currently over most of the state should keep fog potential at bay for most of the state with the exception of northern Arkansas around Harrison and Mountain Home. A few showers are possible mainly over parts of south Arkansas as the trough off pushes east of the state today. A look at longer term guidance shows synoptic scale troughing continuing to prevail over the eastern half of the CONUS through the entire forecast period.
1220 AM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025 - Increased chances (50-70%) for showers Friday night/Saturday with the higher moisture potential across central South Dakota.
- Drier and gradually warmer this weekend. Main concern for today is the question of thunderstorm coverage as a weak upper level trough arrives from the northwest. A ridge of high pressure returns across the Great Basin this weekend, ushering in a period of drier and warmer conditions through Labor Day.
Latest satellite imagery shows a couple of 500hpa disturbances crashing through the Rocky Mtn 500hpa ridge. Large 500hpa low/trough located across eastern CONUS with developing west coast trough also seen. As the series of 500hpa disturbances continue to flatten the ridge to the west, pcpn chances will increase overnight through Saturday across the region.
1243 AM EDT Fri Aug 29 2025 High pressure will extend across the area as a stationary front lingers well to the south and offshore. This low should progress along with the motion of the front and move offshore by Friday. The stalled front and the developing low pressure will be the focuses for showers and thunderstorms this weekend. It's still uncertain how much coverage there will be as it's very dependent on the evolution of this low.
This front is also set to provide slightly cooler temperatures with highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s the next couple days. On the synoptic scale we find ourselves beneath northwest flow aloft with a broad H500 ridge just to our west. This pattern will help usher in a small but potent perturbation within the flow, to initiate scattered to widespread convection over the high plains of NM this afternoon and evening.
Water vapor imagery depicts weak upper low over northeastern WY/southeastern MT.
947 AM EDT Fri Aug 29 2025 Upper level low pressure will drop south from Quebec today then slowly cross the region this weekend.
High pressure will then gradually settle across the region through the long holiday weekend. our coolest airmass in months (850 mb temps of +2C to +4C) will result in well below normal highs in the lower to mid 60s across the lower elevations today. with the higher terrain not making it out of the upper 50s. Mostly dry conditions are expected for the entire period as high pressure and a ridge build into the region from the west, pushing a vertically stacked system (which is currently over the area now) further to the east.
644 AM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025 - Cooler today with temperatures across the Big Country in the mid 80s to mid 90s, elsewhere in the mid to upper 90s. - Rain chances will increase across the area Friday into the weekend, along with cooler temperatures. (Today and Tonight) A cold front will continue to track through the portions of the Conch Valley and Heartland this morning, with lingering isolated showers and thunderstorms developing along the front as it tracks southward.
Heat indices from 105-111 are possible across the region, with the highest values expected in the mid-upper RGV and along US-77. Mid-level ridging will keep rain chances low, generally less than 10%, through Saturday. As this ridge shifts west, deeper layer moisture builds, bringing PWAT values around 2" (between 75-90th percentile of climatology).
For today, drier and slightly warmer conditions are in the forecast along with the typical afternoon breezes. As clear skies are in the forecast overnight, low temperatures cool down to the lower 50s to lower 60s range in Western NV with the higher elevations in the Sierra having lows between the upper 30s and upper 40s.