Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
(Through Sunday) Upper level ridge builds over the southern states while an upper level trough passes from north to south across the southeast coast of the US.
Water vapor imagery reveals a passing mid level trough moving east across south-central Canada, amid an upper jet extending out of the Pacific Northwest across the southern Canadian Provinces, and generally zonal flow aloft over the Northern Plains. At the surface, yesterday's cold front is stalling to the west and is starting to wash itself out in the absence of appreciable mid- upper forcing aloft. Increasing pressure gradient over North Dakota is being noted as the aforementioned mid trough passes nearby, bringing gusty winds in the Devils Lake basin this afternoon.
A Red Flag Warning is currently in effect through 5 PM this afternoon across the higher terrain of the Sierra Nevada and West Side Hills as dry conditions and breezy winds enhance fire concerns.
This is due to a strong high pressure sitting to our north. This high is already starting to modify. This will result in lows in the mid to upper 60's each morning and highs in the low to mid 80's for the next 7 days.
An upper level trough will remain across the Four Corners region through Sunday keeping a deeper southerly flow in place across West Texas. The lowest afternoon humidity will uncharacteristically be across our eastern counties this afternoon and again on Sunday, and will be accompanied by an elevated grass fire threat. Otherwise, the weather will remain quiet with temperatures a degree or two warmer on Sunday.
There should be less mid cloud and wind than there was last night across E OK, thus expecting lows to dip cooler there than last night.
1217 PM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024 - High pressure over the region will bring sunny skies, light winds and temperatures in the 70s through the weekend. - Elevated fire danger is again expected today and Sunday, especially along and west of the Highway 65 corridor.
A low pressure system over Arizona will move northeast into western Colorado through Sunday. Moisture on the back side of this low will maintain valley rain and mountain snow showers across areas east of I-15. As this low exits the region, a warming and drying trend will follow through midweek.
(Tonight) High pressure aloft and at the surface will maintain mostly clear skies and light winds through the duration of the afternoon. Temps will peak in the low to mid 70s before cooling off with sunset. Tonight, clear and calm conditions will present a favorable set up for radiational cooling with temps dropping down into the low 40s.
1020 PM MST Wed Apr 9 2025 Updated Aviation Unseasonably hot temperatures will impact the Desert Southwest through the rest of the week as strong high pressure builds over the region.
Showers will continue tonight over northern Illinois on the back side of the low as it moves east. Drier air will slowly sink from the top down, while the lower parts of the column remain saturated into the morning. With enough moisture at the low levels, patchy fog cannot be ruled out, but confidence is low. Chances for scattered showers are fairly limited and most models keep the better chances around or west of the Fox Valley closer to the low. DK Thursday Night through Wednesday: Upper-level troughing will be slow to clear leading to another day of near to below average temperatures. Highs should top off in the low to perhaps mid 50s, except near the lakeshore where northeasterly winds will hold highs in the 40s.
A fast-moving upper trough will rapidly drop south from the Great Lakes into the Ohio Valley, pushing cold front into the region. Despite the limited moisture return (dewpoints only reaching the low to mid 50s), temperatures warming into the mid to upper 70s will create an unstable environment for strong to severe thunderstorms along ahead of the front.
350 PM Update: High pressure continues to bring mostly sunny skies to the majority of the area, although a weak west-northwesterly flow continues to bring some occasional flurries and light snow showers for parts of Oneida County. Enough cold air may be present for some snow to mix in at some of the higher elevations, but temperatures will quickly warm up enough to transition to all rain area-wide by the afternoon. Scattered rain showers continue Thursday night, but will mix with snow at some of the higher elevations (especially the Catskills-Poconos) as temperatures will be just cold enough. Lows are expected to be in the lower to mid 30s.
Fortunately, surface winds will be veered out of the west ahead of the storms and cold front and the 850-mb winds will be decreasing as the front approaches. The lowest LCLs I can find digging through soundings still keeps them over 1000 m, highly unfavorable for stretching vortices from the ground into the cloud base. The cold front eventually outpaces the supercells, which will become more elevated in nature with loss of diurnal heating.
Aloft, northwesterly flow remains in place on the backside of an upper- level trough over the eastern CONUS, while a ridge dominates the west. Elsewhere, highs will generally remain in the 80s to low 90s while coastal locations will stay cooler with highs holding in the 70s.
0 C/Km, low freezing levels, and more than sufficient shear/thermodynamic profiles. Drier weather returns behind the front for Thursday night through the weekend as high pressure moves overhead.
An area of high pressure continues to dominate the airshed across the Southwest.
134 AM EDT Thu Apr 10 2025 Dry weather is expected today and Thursday as a ridge of high pressure covers the Carolinas.
The southerly surface winds and the upper-level ridging will help keep overnight lows from falling too low from radiational cooling. The position of a large upper level ridge over the western CONUS will steer northwest flow into the ArkLaTex. Aside from a few scattered clouds, mostly clear skies will prevail tonight, while sustained southerly surface flow will help keep overnight lows milder than in recent days, dropping only into the 50s areawide, followed by highs soaring back into the low to mid 80s tomorrow afternoon.
346 AM EDT Thu Apr 10 2025 A broad area of low pressure will move into the region today with widespread rainfall possibly mixed with wet snow.
Then, a cold front will move into the waters by Thursday morning.
Basically this trend continues into tonight with yet another short wave rotating around trough for more light precipitation threats on Thursday.
(Today and tonight) The mid/upper pattern remains unchanged today with a ridge located to our west and northwesterly flow aloft.
(Today through Wednesday) Severe weather chances return today as a longwave trough orients over the Midwest, ejecting a cold front towards the Mid-South.
(This evening through Thursday) Broad troughing to the east coupled with ridging building in from the southwest will result in northwest flow causing stable conditions for the CWA over the next 24 hours. Following a weak cold front and stronger winds this morning into afternoon, winds look to weaken and veer easterly throughout the night. Tomorrow morning another weak cold front sagging down from the north with northeasterly winds behind the front will reach the northeastern counties of the CWA.
331 AM EDT Thu Apr 10 2025 - Light snow ending - Warmer through the weekend, then colder - Light snow ending Low pressure moving across Indiana is creating light snow over the cwa early this morning.
High pressure across western Washington into Thursday morning, allowing for drier conditions.
144 AM CDT Thu Apr 10 2025 - The upcoming weekend will feature warmer temperatures and otherwise pleasant springtime conditions.
148 AM MDT Thu Apr 10 2025 KEY MESSAGES: - A ridge of high pressure builds over the region today causing warm and dry conditions. Satellite imagery early this morning is indicating a trough of low pressure off the coast of the Pacific Northwest and a ridge of high pressure building over the Northern Rockies. That ridge will be the dominant feature in today's weather.
(This evening through Thursday night) A ridge of high pressure will build north across the southern and central Plains through tomorrow. This will provide large scale subsidence under the ridge, which will result in continued dry conditions. A weak surface cold front will move south through the Panhandles tomorrow shifting light and variable surface winds back to more northerly.
Despite minimum relative humidities in the 10-20% percent range, fire weather conditions should remain minimal as the higher wind speeds will remain over the eastern CWA, rather than the western CWA where those lower humidities are occurring.
Early this morning, one area of low pressure is located over southeast Illinois while another more broad and disorganized low is located over Iowa/Minnesota.
- A cooler and wetter weekend from a spring storm. With that in mind the biggest change made was to extend the low POPs in that area a few hours, but any rainfall will be light. High pressure and a ridge will keep Thursday dry and warm across the region.
Rainfall should be very modest with the high based showers. This trough broadens and deepens tomorrow as a modest moist layer develops around 700 mb. Freezing levels around 8000 ft AGL would produce some hail risk with any convection that gets going.
Synoptically, upper level ridging was situated over the Four Corners region with weak bimodal troughing over the Great Lakes/New England regions. All this activity is expected to develop along and ahead of a passing cold front.
253 AM EDT Thu Apr 10 2025 Low pressure over the middle Mississippi River Valley will slowly move across the Ohio Valley tonight and Thursday. This will bring warmer temperatures and increased chances of precipitation. Cooler temperatures will follow to close the work week before a ridge of high pressure offers a warm up heading into the weekend. Warm front gradually lifts northward overnight through our fa. Eventually, saturation is lost in the lowest part of the DGZ, removing chances for any frozen pcpn. Southwesterly flow ahead of the low will lift temperatures into the upper 50s to middle 60s by afternoon. Late in the day, a sagging cold front will bring colder air into the CWA from north to south. Deep mid level trough over the region at the beginning of the period will develop into a closed low over the Appalachians.
The region continues to rest under a dry northwesterly flow on the western periphery of a broader scale trough just to our east.
314 AM CDT Thu Apr 10 2025 - Weak cold front moves through today with low chances (20-35%) for precipitation to occur.
Upper ridging across the Intermountain West. At the surface, high pressure extended from the New England coast to the Louisiana coast.
- Dry, with above normal temperatures today, then slightly cooler for Friday. We'll see little effect from the front, other than a wind shift and slightly cooler temperatures behind it. Skies will be sunny, with afternoon highs ranging from the upper 80s across the Big Country, to the lower 90s along the I-10 corridor prior to the front moving through.
201 AM MST Thu Apr 10 2025 Abnormally warm and dry conditions will prevail over the next several days as high pressure dominates over the Desert Southwest. Morning 500mb RAP analysis reveals ridging entrenched across the western CONUS, promoting generally quiet and warm conditions. In turn, this abnormally strong area of high pressure will translate to much warmer-than-normal temperatures through the end of the work week, with regional temperatures hovering around 15 degrees above seasonal values and many locations likely seeing their first triple digit readings so far this year during this timeframe.
555 AM CDT Thu Apr 10 2025 (Today through Friday) A slow moving, weak cold front will be draped just north of South Central Texas much of today, possibly reaching the southern Edwards Plateau or Hill Country by late afternoon. Even with this cool down, highs will be above average Friday afternoon, ranging from the low 80s to low 90s.
Minimal impacts expected as most road temperatures remain above freezing.
Cooler with showers on Friday. Cooler air advects tonight and Friday with showery conditions remaining beneath the upper-level trough forced by 700mb/mid- level frontogenesis and orographic lift across the mountains. Orographic lift continues into Friday night with remaining rain changing over to some snow across the higher elevations of the mountains. Snow should be primarily limited to elevations over 3000 feet elevation with localized spots across the highest peaks receiving some limited measurable accumulation.
529 AM EDT Thu Apr 10 2025 High pressure will ridge across the region today into Friday.
Slightly cooler temperatures are expected tomorrow with highs only in the 70s and 80s to end the work week. Prater Previous Discussion: /Today through Friday Afternoon/ A weak cold front that is currently impinging on our northwestern counties will continue to slowly advance east/southeast through the morning and early afternoon hours as its parent mid-level trough digs across the eastern CONUS. A secondary push of cooler air is progged to ooze south tonight into Friday, allowing for a bit of a decrease in temperatures to end the work week.
Cooler today today with a north wind 10-18 kts, near calm tonight then south wind increasing to 10-20 kts Friday afternoon. If stronger like the operational ECMWF, enough cold air in the low levels to bring a change to wet snow in that area of far NW MN.
742 AM EDT Thu Apr 10 2025 - Light snow ending - Warmer through the weekend, then colder - Light snow ending Low pressure moving across Indiana is creating light snow over the cwa early this morning. - Warmer through the weekend, then colder Upper troughing will remain over the Great Lakes Friday. However, the trough axis will be just east of the cwa and so we should see temperatures a little warmer.
946 AM EDT Thu Apr 10 2025 High pressure will ridge across the region today into Friday.
The next wave of activity will take shape in western KY and TN along the cold front.
Low pressure near 48N and 132W will move just to the NW of the northern tip of Vancouver Island today and eventually onshore into western British Columbia tonight. This will send a cold front toward the PacNW coast. We are forecasting highs in the low to mid 70s for most west side valleys, but also for many east side populated areas.
(Today and tonight) A progressive longwave pattern, with our area situated on the backside of a flattening upper level ridge, will continue to steer more impactful troughing to our north. A trough axis well to our north will move inland this afternoon and push a weak and dry cold front south into our area tonight. The cooler and more importantly, drier airmass will help limit widespread stratus development late tonight into early Friday morning.
635 AM EDT Thu Apr 10 2025 A broad area of low pressure will move into the region today with widespread rainfall possibly mixed with wet snow.
Abnormally warm and dry conditions will prevail over the next several days as high pressure dominates over the Desert Southwest. Morning 500mb RAP analysis reveals ridging entrenched across the western CONUS, promoting generally quiet and warm conditions. In turn, this abnormally strong area of high pressure will translate to much warmer-than-normal temperatures through the end of the work week, with regional temperatures hovering around 15 degrees above seasonal values and many locations likely seeing their first triple digit readings so far this year during this timeframe.
This will provide forcing for ascent over-top a warm sector characterized by dewpoints in the low 50s. Some showers, perhaps some storms, could re-appear on Friday afternoon as the primary upper trough begins a large dip into the eastern CONUS, but parameters don't support any severe weather.
Some elucidation of this is in order following the generation of SPC's "Marginal/Slight" Risk assessment and subsequent graphics which highlight those areas: A positively tilted large-scale trough will advance southeastward from the Upper MS Valley/Midwest to the OH/TN Valleys through the next 24 hours. Within the base of the trough, a 85-95kt west- northwesterly midlevel jet will overspread the Mid/Deep South and TN Valley. In response, lower/middle 50s F dewpoints will stream northeastward along/ahead of a southeastward-moving cold front.
NWly steering flow aloft wl persist over the Mid-South over the next few days, thanks to upper ridging over the western U. and a deepening trof in the east. A reinforcing shot of cooler and drier air wl return to the FA tngt and Fri behind the assocd CDFNT. A reinforcing shot of cooler/drier air wl follow for the start of the weekend.
202 AM PDT Thu Apr 10 2025 * High temperatures today and Friday reach the lower 80s across some western NV valleys but will fall short of record levels.
600 AM CDT Thu Apr 10 2025 - The upcoming weekend will feature warmer temperatures and otherwise pleasant springtime conditions. With flow in the lowest thousand feet expected to increase a bit towards daybreak, it seems like the threat for widespread dense fog may remain in check, but we'll obviously continue to closely monitor observation trends here. This will set up a fairly sizable temperature gradient across the region, with lakeside locales across northeast Illinois likely remaining in the low 40s while areas south of I-80 may make a run towards 60 degrees. Highs will be in the low to mid 50s inland and in the 40s near the lake.
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Synoptic scale model data indicate that a broad ridge of strong high pressure will spread from west to east over the western US, the Rocky Mountain region, and the High Plains region today through Friday.
(Today through Friday Night) High pressure will slowly erode and shift to the southeast today. Meanwhile a cold front will begin to sag southeastward toward the area. As we move into Friday another spoke, around the parent low in the Great Lakes, will swing a second cold front into the area main low in the area by Friday afternoon.
646 AM EDT Thu Apr 10 2025 High pressure will ridge across the region today into Friday.
Quiet conditions will prevail across our area through this afternoon with highs in the low 80s areawide. Some elucidation of this is in order following the generation of SPC's "Marginal/Slight" Risk assessment and subsequent graphics which highlight those areas: A positively tilted large-scale trough will advance southeastward from the Upper MS Valley/Midwest to the OH/TN Valleys through the next 24 hours. Within the base of the trough, a 85-95kt west- northwesterly midlevel jet will overspread the Mid/Deep South and TN Valley. In response, lower/middle 50s F dewpoints will stream northeastward along/ahead of a southeastward-moving cold front.
An area of high pressure continues to dominate the airshed across the Southwest. The slight downward trend in temperatures will be a result from an incoming low pressure system.
543 AM CDT Thu Apr 10 2025 - Weak cold front moves through today with low chances (20-35%) for precipitation to occur. - Cooler on Friday, before a gradual warming trend through the weekend.
High pressure will remain in place for the remainder of the work week.
1004 AM EDT Thu Apr 10 2025 Low pressure will track across the Ohio Valley today. This will bring warmer temperatures and a continued chance of precipitation. Cooler temperatures will follow to close the work week before a ridge of high pressure offers a warm up heading into the weekend. This will lead to showers redeveloping later this afternoon, with the highest pops (still chance) across our south. High today will range from the lower and middle 50s in the north to the lower and middle 60s in the south. A mean trof to deepen over the region as strong jet energy digs into the Mid South. The deep mid level trof to pivot east on Friday.
647 AM CDT Thu Apr 10 2025 (Today through Friday) Tranquil and dry conditions will prevail through the period with a high pressure in place aloft and at the surface. A weak cold front is expected to approach Deep South Texas on Friday. Highs today will range from the 70s at the beaches, the mid to upper 80s near the coast and the lower 90s across the Upper Valley into Rio Grande Plains with light to moderate winds. Another cool to mild night is expected tonight with lows falling into the upper 50s to the lower 60s across much of the area. Highs on Friday should range from the 70s at the beaches, low to mid 80s near the coast and the lowers 90s across the Rio Grande Plains.
644 AM CDT Thu Apr 10 2025 - Dry, with above normal temperatures today, then slightly cooler for Friday. We'll see little effect from the front, other than a wind shift and slightly cooler temperatures behind it. Skies will be sunny, with afternoon highs ranging from the upper 80s across the Big Country, to the lower 90s along the I-10 corridor prior to the front moving through.
In addition, the low is producing showers along the east coast of Florida that have on occasion passed through our easternmost waters. Otherwise, another pleasant start to day is on tap with current temperatures in the lower 70s and dew points in the lower 60s. The low north of the Bahamas will slowly drift east on Friday while the next low will drop south across the Mississippi Valley. As this next low moves closer to our area, it will act to depress the high across the Gulf and temporarily lead to a weakening pressure gradient across the Keys. Again this is only temporary as the low will be bringing the next front to the area.
Longwave trough remains over E U. Primary forecast area of interest remains the chance of a few severe storms on Friday in advance of the cold front.
Early this morning, one area of low pressure is located over southeast Illinois while another more broad and disorganized low is located over Iowa/Minnesota. Temperatures will bottom out Friday and Friday night with highs in the 50s and lows near the freezing mark, but this will be short lived.
Low temperatures in the low to mid 50s are expected over most of the forecast area Thursday night. High pressure builds into the region over the weekend.
1241 PM CDT Thu Apr 10 2025 (Today through Friday) A slow moving, weak cold front will be draped just north of South Central Texas much of today, possibly reaching the southern Edwards Plateau or Hill Country by late afternoon. Even with this cool down, highs will be above average Friday afternoon, ranging from the low 80s to low 90s.
311 PM EDT Thu Apr 10 2025 - Frost is likely with lows near freezing tonight; a hard freeze is possible Friday night.
Still looking for highs in the low to middle 80s across the region before the approaching dry cool front injects some slightly cooler air into the region. A cold front will approach the region from the north today and while it is supposed to be a fairly dry cold front for our region, there is a non-zero chance for some shower activity across our far northeast zones late this afternoon and into the evening. Temperatures today will climb into the lower to mid-80s across the region with some increasing clouds across our northern zones as the cold front approaches. Thanks to the passing cold front, temperatures will be slightly cooler tonight than what we saw this morning, but not by much.
Yet another peak and lull in winds due to thermal heating between high pressure in the Gulf and low pressure northeast of The Bahamas although not as much as yesterday. Temperatures are more or less at 80 degrees across the Keys with dewpoints ranging through the lower to mid 60s. The low expected to form in the Ohio River Valley today will churn for a day or so before approaching the Eastern Seaboard.