Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Weak low ridging centered to our east is keeping the Keys on the western periphery. This flow has aided in dew points returning into the lower 70s, making it noticeably more humid compared to a few days ago. An approaching short wave trough aloft continues to produce mid and high level clouds that are streaming in from the west. High pressure over the Atlantic will extend westward across the Florida Peninsula this afternoon. Weak low level ridging will dominate through the first half of the week, keeping breezes light and largely easterly.
639 AM CDT Mon Mar 24 2025 - Rain likely across portions of western and south western North Dakota today, with a slight chance of freezing rain this morning. - Cooler weekend with chances of rain and snow. A slight chance of freezing rain is possible in southeast North Dakota this morning between 09z and 14z.
219 PM EDT Mon Mar 24 2025 A cold front will cross the area this afternoon. Weak high pressure will build into the area Tuesday.
1226 PM CDT Mon Mar 24 2025 (Monday through Tuesday) Quiet, yet warmer than normal weather will continue through the beginning of the workweek across the Four State Region. This is due to post-frontal surface ridging that stays in place over the area, keeping winds below 5 mph and allowing any rainfall to maximally radiate back into the atmosphere through enhanced evapotranspiration conditions. What this ultimately means is higher dew points and higher temperatures (maximums/minimums in the 80s/upper 50s), especially by tomorrow as the warm front approaches from the south (upper 80s as temperature maximums are likely tomorrow!). Long-range guidance is in more agreement on the timing than the intensity of the trough, but ultimately a wet weekend is becoming more likely for the end of the month.
Temperatures have warmed up into the lower 80s and dew points are holding around 70 degree. Given that low level ridging remains in place across the area, not expecting convection to survive the trek this evening and overnight. The models continue to show a disconnect with the low levels stuck in weak ridging. Looking at forecast soundings, the low level flow is that of backing, not veering. Weak ridging will allow for a thermal trough to develop across the southern half of the Peninsula. At the same time, the low level steering flow is from the northwest to north.
Lastly, lows are forecast to drop into the lower to mid 40s for most of the local area, but be a bit warmer (mid to upper 40s) over northwest Alabama.
Temperatures will rise to the low-mid 80s across the East Coast, and up into the upper 80s over southwest FL.
229 PM MDT Mon Mar 24 2025 - Another warm day on tap for the area Tuesday, with an afternoon storm or two over the higher terrain possible.
1239 PM EDT Mon Mar 24 2025 A cold front will move through the area overnight, then another front will move through Tuesday night.
Wind speeds are expected to increase early this afternoon, especially along and north of I-44 as subtle Lee troughing develops over the High Plains.
Temperatures warmer this morning as winds have shifted southerly in response to a cold front currently pushing through the southeast.
This consists of a longwave over the CONUS with troughing over the NE and ridging of the SW. Elevated to significant fire danger this afternoon: Observed relative humidities are in the 20-30% range across the region as temperatures warm into the 60s and lower 70s behind an exiting cold front that brought in drier air. Some areas, including those closer to the southern border, have RHs in the teens as temperatures are warmer in this region. However, observations in southern Kansas show sustained winds between 15-25 mph south of a subtle surface pressure trough. High confidence in above normal temperatures through the week: As the large-scale ridging slowly jogs eastward, the Gulf will open up and southerly surface winds will bring in warmer and more moist air.
857 AM PDT Mon Mar 24 2025 Warmer today under a ridge of high pressure with weak offshore flow.
144 PM PDT Mon Mar 24 2025 Ridge of high pressure will continue to provide warm weather through Tuesday with coastal clouds and fog at times.
251 PM CDT Mon Mar 24 2025 - Largely quiet weather for the first half of the week with highs in the 40s and 50s and overnight lows below freezing.
146 PM EDT Mon Mar 24 2025 A cold front will move through the area overnight, then another front will move through Tuesday night.
1135 AM MST Mon Mar 24 2025 Unseasonably strong high pressure will continue to build over the region with recording breaking temperatures likely early this week. Temperatures across the lower deserts will peak in the mid to upper 90s Tuesday with some of the warmest locations potentially reaching triple digits.
312 PM EDT Mon Mar 24 2025 A cold front will move through the area overnight, then another front will move through Tuesday night.
The warming trend continues today with highs approaching 70F in the lower valleys.
An expansive ridge of high pressure has build over the West Coast and will continue moving eastward over the next few days. There is a stream of moisture on the northern periphery of the ridge, which is clipping the northern mountains. The ridge will lead to warmer than normal temperatures this week.
High pressure slides east tonight as low pressure lifts a warm front across the area. After the warmup into the 70s to end the week/extend over the weekend, the aforementioned system's passage should return dry weather and seasonally cooler temps in the 60s to begin the new week. A warm front will be lifting across the area as high pressure slides east and low pressure moves in.
Thus, no rain is forecast, but it will be drier as dewpoints dip into the lower to mid 30s this afternoon.
(Tonight through Tuesday night) Overall a quiet afternoon ongoing with temps mostly in the low to mid 80s and SE to easterly winds. A weak cold front that has moved through STX over the day has slowed in momentum as it approached the CWA boarder.
1223 PM CDT Mon Mar 24 2025 - Mild temperatures expected the first half of the workweek, followed by much warmer conditions.
Surface analysis at 18z indicates high pressure beginning to settle in over the region with satellite indicatiung a week wave pushing through western North Dakota right now.
- Turning cooler and unsettled late in the week. Satellite imagery indicates broad ridge of high pressure across the southwest US, with moisture streaming across the northern periphery. In general, however, dry conditions are anticipated to continue as the ridge continues to build across the region through mid-week. Of particular note will be the low temperature values well above freezing as well.
The upper level trough axis driving MCS with embedded MCV's is now east of the CWA and will continue eastward towards the Atlantic.
(This evening through Tuesday Night) Upper level ridging will sustain quiet conditions for the better part of the next 36 hours. Tuesday night will be similar to tonight, if a few degrees warmer, with increasing surface moisture to the south and building cloud cover aloft from the north and west, ahead of our next rainfall chances.
1238 PM CDT Mon Mar 24 2025 (Today through Tuesday) Cold front sagging south this morning and will stall by mid morning around 9-10am.
324 PM EDT Mon Mar 24 2025 - Lingering Light Snow and Gusty Winds - Cool and Dry Midweek - Warmer with Rain and Thunderstorms End of Week - Lingering Light Snow and Gusty Winds Ongoing light snow will continue before tapering off this evening. Winds may aid in drying pavements off before temperatures drop below freezing tonight.
A weak wave may spark some showers as we head into Tuesday, but we will hang on to dry air in the lower levels, making it difficult to squeeze out more than a hundredth or two of QPF across western Minnesota. Temperatures may be hovering around freezing when precip begins tomorrow morning, so a few snowflakes are possible, but the main precip type will be rain through Tuesday afternoon.
* Instability will be on the rise the next few days with the warmer temperatures, though Valley locations will likely be well capped.
High pressure will move in tonight, along with a northwesterly flow pattern aloft. With winds becoming light, cloud cover decreasing, and the high moving overhead, expecting patchy to areas of fog to develop tonight.
Slightly cooler northwest flow aloft within the wake of these features will produce lake effect snow showers for northwest snowbelts. Primary Forecast Concerns: We cool slightly tonight within the low levels of the atmosphere, and thus lake effect snow will continue through the night, constricting to northwest snowbelts. Temperatures will also rise into the low to mid 30s during the daytime hours. with northern Michigan increasingly centered between slowly departing northeast NOAM troughing and subtropical ridging anticipated to build across the southeast CONUS.
(This evening through Tuesday night) The present high pressure looks to hold over the Panhandles for today and most of Tuesday, which will keep the dry and stagnate pattern present across the area.
Overnight lows will drop into the lower 40s east to upper 40s west as southwest flow develops late tonight.
725 PM EDT Mon Mar 24 2025 - Lingering Light Snow and Gusty Winds - Cool and Dry Midweek - Warmer with Rain and Thunderstorms End of Week - Lingering Light Snow and Gusty Winds Ongoing light snow will continue before tapering off this evening. Winds may aid in drying pavements off before temperatures drop below freezing tonight.
638 PM CDT Mon Mar 24 2025 (This evening through Tuesday Night) Upper level ridging will sustain quiet conditions for the better part of the next 36 hours. Tuesday night will be similar to tonight, if a few degrees warmer, with increasing surface moisture to the south and building cloud cover aloft from the north and west, ahead of our next rainfall chances.
A cold and dry air mass has settled into the region and this is resulting in fairly widespread freezing temperatures across Arizona this morning.
Sub-freezing temperatures across the San Joaquin Valley this morning and possibly tonight into Saturday morning.
An intense area of low pressure across Missouri this morning will move into lower Michigan on Saturday morning. What caught my attention was the length of time the low level winds are from the northeast off the lake through this evening into early Saturday morning to enhance snowfall totals. Across portions of north-central, snowfall totals are a little lower and will be flirting with the low end of warning criteria (6 inches). Also, will need to watch the Highway 41 corridor in southern Marinette and southern Oconto counties. Did not stray far from the NBM guidance for the highs both days and the low tonight.
Temperatures have skyrocketed compared to this time yesterday with Island Chain communities observing near 80 degrees with some locations in the lower 80s. Tonight is expected to remain dry under a mostly clear sky as the Florida Keys remain in south to southwest flow in the low to mid levels of 20 to 30 knots. This will act to keep moisture in the area with moisture undulations expected due to south to southwesterly flow remaining in the low to mid levels.
A warm front has pushed the area today. This has brought plenty of cloud cover, a few light showers, and warmer temperatures. This is all short lived as the cold front is expected to push through tonight. Saturday is looking dry and cooler.
1142 AM CST Fri Jan 12 2024 (Today and tonight) Significant cold front has cleared the area tonight with temperatures by morning some 45 to 50 degrees colder than yesterday afternoon.
350 PM EST Fri Jan 12 2024 Strong low pressure over Illinois and Indiana will move northeast through the Great Lakes tonight into Saturday, allowing for colder temperatures and a chance of light snow.
115 PM CST Fri Jan 12 2024 - Strong/damaging wind gusts are still forecast through the late afternoon-early evening as a powerful low pressure system lifts out. Rain may change to snow before ending as freezing temperatures arrive. - A blast of arctic air envelops the region this weekend, with temperatures forecast to hold below freezing for much of the new week.
Unfortunately, less wind won't make it feel any warmer.
A building ridge over the region will lead to a slight warming trend over the next several days. On the bright side, a slight warming trend is projected with a ridge building up over the region.
1115 AM CST Fri Jan 12 2024 (Today and tonight) Water vapor imagery currently shows the upper level low spiraling eastward out of the region, taking elevated instability and precipitation chances with it. The associated cold front with this system has made its way through the forecast area early this morning, allowing a cooler air mass and breezy conditions to follow in its wake. These cooler temperatures in the upper teens to low 20s and breezy northerly winds around 15 to 30 mph will lead to Wind Chill values in the single digits with below-zero wind chill values possible across the far southwestern Texas Panhandle this morning. These elevated winds and cooler temperatures in the 40s to lower 50s this afternoon will make it feel cooler.
Another cold morning is on tap for tomorrow, although freezing temperatures will be more isolated across the area. Analysis of upper-level WV imagery this afternoon reveals broad troughing over much of Conus with the low pressure system that moved through yesterday moving into the New England area. Upper- level WV also reveals a high amplitude ridge over the eastern Pacific Ocean. It will be another chilly morning tomorrow, however, freezing temperatures in the morning will be more isolated in nature. While Arctic air is on the way for much of the Eastern two-thirds of Conus, our region will start to see a gradual warming trend as H5 heights start to rise as the aforementioned ridge starts to slowly move onshore.
Tomorrow, a stout low pressure system will cross the Ohio valley towards New England, dragging a weakening front across the Florida peninsula. With this frontal passage, temperatures tomorrow should be a touch lower than today, reaching the low 80s across metro areas and over the interior.
Currently at the 09Z hour, a longwave mid to upper level trough axis is advancing across the Central and Southern Plains.
1129 AM CST Fri Jan 12 2024 (Today and tonight) The combination of strong pressure gradient on the backside of a low pressure system in southeast Oklahoma and a strong mid level jet has resulted in another round of intense winds with a few gusts over 50 mph this morning. Expect colder temperatures with highs in the low to mid 50s and lows tonight the upper 20s to mid 30s.
A cold front moving east across the region today will be well east of our area by this evening, with much drier and cooler air beginning to filter in from the west and rains ending. In the wake of the frontal passage late today and this evening a large trough will remain over the eastern CONUS through Saturday, although our area will be at the base of the trough with mainly zonal flow aloft. At the surface, a high pressure ridge will be building down into our area from the northwest tonight and Saturday. Cooler on Saturday with highs primarily in the mid 50s across the entire region.
As the low moves away, the pressure gradient will weaken, allowing winds to continue to decrease as we go into the evening. The lighter winds overnight combined with mostly clear skies could result in some radiational cooling, allowing our lows to drop to around freezing with wind chills in the low to mid 20s. However, this will be short lived for our northern counties as the arctic cold front makes its approach tomorrow.
Overnight lows should be warmer than this morning, but still below freezing across most areas, as what winds we will have will be out of the west. Our long awaited cold front will push into the region tomorrow. The timing of the FROPA will determine high temps tomorrow, and some areas may not see temps rise above freezing before the front pushes through.
As the trough/jet stream moves off to the east today, gradients will relax allowing for calmer winds tonight. Colder air will continue to filter into the region over the next several days with a medium chance (25-50%) for freezing temperatures across the northern tier of South Texas counties. There's a medium chance (25-50%) for freezing temperatures north tonight, from La Salle county east toward the Victoria Crossroads. Tomorrow will warm to around the mid 60s near the coast to the mid 70s out west with overnight lows in the upper 30's north to the low 50s for coastal areas.
749 PM CST Fri Jan 12 2024 - Strong wind gusts are still forecast through the evening as a powerful low pressure system lifts out. - A blast of arctic air envelops the region this weekend, with temperatures forecast to hold below freezing for much of the new week.
The western extension of the North Atlantic ridge had an axis across the northern Bahamas and the eastern Straits this evening. Patchy stratus has been waxing and waning over portions of the Lower Keys.
311 PM PST Fri Jan 12 2024 A warmer storm system moves in tonight and continues through Saturday night, bringing widespread precipitation. A warmer and wetter storm will move in later tonight and Saturday, bringing heavy mountain snow, gusty winds, and widespread Valley rain. Winds there could gusts high as 55 mph, locally higher on ridges.
Patchy dense freezing fog may develop along the front from about 04z-09z in the southwest half of the area (Akron, Colorado, to Scott City, Kansas and west), while light snow will likely develop behind it.
541 PM CST Fri Jan 12 2024 - Strong/damaging wind gusts are still forecast through the late afternoon-early evening as a powerful low pressure system lifts out. Rain may change to snow before ending as freezing temperatures arrive. - A blast of arctic air envelops the region this weekend, with temperatures forecast to hold below freezing for much of the new week.
338 PM CST Fri Jan 12 2024 High pressure will move over the area later tonight which will help ease the gradient winds thereby ending the wind threat. Expect afternoon highs to peak in the low to mid 50s.
A building ridge over the region will lead to a slight warming trend over the next several days. However with increasing high clouds and some locally gusty winds, temperatures should stay a few degrees warmer than the previous night. On the bright side, a slight warming trend is projected with a ridge building up over the region.
A powerful area of low pressure that in part was responsible for the strong winds was rapidly heading to the NE, moving across central Illinois with a minimum central pressure near the 985mb. Winds should continue to subside as the low moves further to the north. As the low exits, much colder air to our W-NW will filter across the Tennessee Valley, and return winter-like temperatures. Westerly winds of 10-20 mph with some higher gusts should help dry exposed surfaces this afternoon and evening, well before subfreezing temperatures occur. That said, cannot rule out a few slick spots in locations that do not dry completely as temperatures fall well below freezing.
-Prolonged period of dangerously cold wind chills this weekend 20Z upper analysis shows a low pressure center over eastern Iowa, with another larger stronger upper low system diving southward out of Alberta/Saskatchewan.
605 PM CST Fri Jan 12 2024 High pressure will move over the area later tonight which will help ease the gradient winds thereby ending the wind threat. Expect afternoon highs to peak in the low to mid 50s.
However, the higher snowfall amounts and rates are only expected across the Fox Valley east to the lakeshore as well as eastern Shawano County and along the bay of Green Bay of southern Oconto and Marinette counties. Discussion: An intense low pressure system, analyzed at 985 mb across southern Illinois, will continue moving northeast towards central lower Michigan this evening, then southwest Quebec by Saturday afternoon.
As of the latest obs around 830 PM CST, values range from the low/mid 50s in portions of the east, to the mid/upr 30s in NW Alabama.
1129 PM CST Fri Jan 12 2024 High pressure will move over the area later tonight which will help ease the gradient winds thereby ending the wind threat. Expect afternoon highs to peak in the low to mid 50s.
(Today and tonight) Next arctic cold front entering northern Oklahoma early this morning will quickly move south across Oklahoma and north Texas this morning.
There is a 54 percent probability of sub-freezing temperatures as low as 28 degrees in rural areas of the Southern San Joaquin Valley this morning.
255 AM EST Sat Jan 13 2024 Upper longwave trough from the Great Lakes into the Gulf of Mexico continues to push a cold front through the E Gulf and FL Peninsula this morning with broken band of showers as upper dynamics have moved well NE of the local area. Cooler high pressure to build into the region behind the front on gusty NW-N winds.
1138 PM CST Fri Jan 12 2024 - Strong wind gusts are still forecast through the evening as a powerful low pressure system lifts out. - A blast of arctic air envelops the region this weekend, with temperatures forecast to hold below freezing for much of the new week.
521 AM CST Sat Jan 13 2024 High pressure will move over the area later tonight which will help ease the gradient winds thereby ending the wind threat. Expect afternoon highs to peak in the low to mid 50s.
716 AM EST Sat Jan 13 2024 Upper longwave trough from the Great Lakes into the Gulf of Mexico continues to push a cold front through the E Gulf and FL Peninsula this morning with broken band of showers as upper dynamics have moved well NE of the local area. Cooler high pressure to build into the region behind the front on gusty NW-N winds.
Surface analysis early this morning depicts a strong ~982 mb low centered over western Michigan with surface ridging nosing into the Plains states. Aloft, a large upper low is centered over the Great Lakes Region with cyclonic flow stretching as far south as the middle Mississippi Valley.
Satellite images early this morning shows some high clouds starting to drift southeastward from the Great Basin and into the High Country. This is all in advance of a trough that will move into the region early Sunday.
Issued at 429 EST Sat Jan 13 2024 The approaching frontal trough has sufficiently suppressed surface ridging over Cuba, with surface winds recently freshening out of the southwest, near 15 knots along the reef and about 10 knots with gusts to 15 knots over the islands. Today, trending in short range/mesoscale CAMs has indicated a possibly slightly slower passage of a pre-frontal trough, and with deep moisture highly channeled with shallow slope, isolated to scattered showers may reach near the lower Keys at best early to mid afternoon. Mixed layer CAPEs were less than 500 J/kg but indicated mid morning through the trough passage some lightning could be possible with a few cells in our Gulf waters northwest of Key West. Dew points will likely fall into the 60s within a few hours of the trough passage.
406 AM EST Sat Jan 13 2024 Strong low pressure to the north will affect the region with windy conditions today.
Areas of light snow continue to linger on the backside of the low, but should diminish this morning. Gusty winds (20 to 30+ mph) will persist on the backside of the low today in the cold advective regime, highest west into MN/IA.
-Cooler but generally calm weather expected for the CWA through the rest of the weekend. As the trough kicks out of here we're left with generally dry conditions on the leading edge of the approaching high pressure.
631 AM EST Sat Jan 13 2024 (Today through Sunday) A stout low pressure system crossing the Great Lakes region will drag a weakening front across the Florida peninsula today. Increased cloud cover and a little cooler of an airmass will result in an even cooler day on Sunday, with highs in the upper 60s over the lake region, and low to mid 70s elsewhere.