Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
After convection along the outflow tapers off this evening a lull in activity is anticipated ahead of the next round of convection, arriving across northern Iowa as an MCS rides over the central US ridge. The other side of this coin is the heat settling across the area as the thermal ridge shifts across the area. Similar conditions are anticipated for tomorrow, though temperatures will be a few degrees higher as the ridge shifts directly over Iowa.
1147 AM MDT Fri Aug 15 2025 - Monsoon moisture will increase shower and storm coverage heading into this weekend, mainly over and near the higher terrain. The high pressure previously located over our area will continue moving east today, as a broad upper trough begins to deepen over the western states. Today, this southerly flow and increased moisture content will allow for more numerous showers and thunderstorms over the higher terrain. Temperatures will be similar to yesterday, if a few degrees cooler, with 80s over the high valleys and 90s to low- 100s over the plains.
220 PM MDT Fri Aug 15 2025 - Isolated to widely scattered PM showers and thunderstorms will continue today and through the weekend with slightly cooler temperatures this weekend. A deep trough impacting the Northwest has shifted the mid and upper level flow to the south/southwest pushing some weak energy northeast across the CWA, this coupled with winds generally shifting to the south is bringing in some low level moisture into southeast Wyoming and the Nebraska Panhandle. Expect somewhat "cooler" temperatures today with highs topping out in the 80s and low 90s primarily west of the I-25 corridor and into the low to mid 90s across far eastern Wyoming and the Nebraska panhandle.
Lastly, along the Lower Texas Coast, a moderate risk of rip currents is in effect through tomorrow due to the increased waves and swell from the low pressure system. While the MVFR conditions are generally due to the low-level clouds moving through the area.
217 PM EDT Fri Aug 15 2025 High pressure will keep conditions dry through tomorrow, but there will be a noticeable warming trend.
An upper-level troughing pattern will persist through the weekend, bringing afternoon and evening showers/t-storms to the Sierra.
159 PM EDT Fri Aug 15 2025 Dry weather with warming temperatures are expected into the start of the weekend as high pressure shifts east of the region.
127 PM EDT Fri Aug 15 2025 - Warmer and dry today with highs in the upper 80s.
Upstream activity will weaken as it tracks east due to our lingering ridge and subsequent capping aloft.
1233 PM CDT Fri Aug 15 2025 Our area continues to be under the influence of a subtropical ridge, which will begin to build and propagate towards the area today.
1138 AM MDT Fri Aug 15 2025 - Daily chances for thunderstorms through the weekend with isolated strong to severe thunderstorms 07z surface analysis had several boundaries snaking through the CWA early this morning with lee trough from south-central MT into eastern CO, weak cool front from southeastern ND to east-central WY, and a couple of outflow boundaries from evening convection. Water vapour loop had upper ridge over the southern plains and southwest flow aloft with plenty of disturbances upstream into the southern Rockies.
Cooler temperatures are in place today ahead of a well-defined low pressure system located off the British Columbia coast. Some high-resolution guidance indicates convection developing ahead of the approaching cold front across southeast Oregon into the west-central mountains of Idaho Saturday afternoon.
Lastly, along the Lower Texas Coast, a moderate risk of rip currents is in effect through tomorrow due to the increased waves and swell from the low pressure system.
837 PM EDT Fri Aug 15 2025 An area of low pressure will slowly shift offshore today. High pressure then builds back into the area this weekend. Lows should reach the low 70s inland, and mid to upper 70s along the coast. - Cloudy and cooler again tomorrow, with some scattered afternoon thunderstorms High pressure will continue to ridge down into the Carolinas tomorrow as a meandering area of low pressure sits off the NC coast. Highs will range from the low to mid 80s along the coast to the mid to upper 80s across the coastal plain.
High pressure stretching from the Ohio Valley to New England will remain in control over the area through Saturday night.
714 PM EDT Fri Aug 15 2025 High pressure will keep conditions dry through tomorrow, but there will be a noticeable warming trend.
Pattern Synopsis and Forecast: Pattern consists of a ridge to our southwest which extends northward into the Northern Plains with west to northwest flow aloft across the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes. Convective allowing models (not all) are showing the potential for pockets of heavier rains within any of the storms or clusters that do develop, which makes sense given PWs well above normal, high freezing levels, and sufficient instability.
737 PM EDT Fri Aug 15 2025 Mesoanalysis depicts the hallmarks of ridging throughout the atmospheric column with warm 500mb temperatures and unidirectional light flow from surface to 300mb. (Today through Saturday) Mid-level ridging will start to gradually weaken and drift northwestward today, but its influence will remain felt across the Florida peninsula through the short term. Nevertheless, conditions this afternoon will remain warm, with highs in the low-mid 90s across the entire CWA. A subtle tropical wave will move across the Florida Straits on Saturday, skirting the weakening ridge, and could inject some moisture back over the area while also providing support for more scattered to numerous showers and storms across southwest Florida.
/Issued 1257 PM CDT Fri Aug 15 2025/ /Through Saturday/ An upper level ridge centered to our north will allow hot summer weather to continue across the region today. /Issued 1257 PM CDT Fri Aug 15 2025/ /Saturday Night Onward/ The center of the upper level ridge will shift slightly east during the second half of the weekend, with hot and rain-free weather expected for most locations.
709 PM EDT Fri Aug 15 2025 Dry weather with warming temperatures are expected into the start of the weekend as high pressure shifts east of the region.
508 PM MDT Fri Aug 15 2025 - Isolated to widely scattered PM showers and thunderstorms will continue today and through the weekend with slightly cooler temperatures this weekend. A deep trough impacting the Northwest has shifted the mid and upper level flow to the south/southwest pushing some weak energy northeast across the CWA, this coupled with winds generally shifting to the south is bringing in some low level moisture into southeast Wyoming and the Nebraska Panhandle. Expect somewhat "cooler" temperatures today with highs topping out in the 80s and low 90s primarily west of the I-25 corridor and into the low to mid 90s across far eastern Wyoming and the Nebraska panhandle.
(Today through Sunday) Mid to upper level ridging is expected to remain the dominant synoptic feature driving local weather across South Florida through the weekend. It is worth mentioning that a (very) subtle tropical wave will move across the Florida Straits this afternoon, skirting the weakening ridge, and could inject some moisture back over the area through the afternoon and evening. High temperatures will reach the low to mid 90s with heat indices in the low 100s.
Current water vapor imagery and RAP analysis indicate mid-level ridging over the Central and Southern Plains as subtle ripples in upper-level flow touch off a handful of showers and storms across Nebraska and Iowa. The hot and breezy trend is anticipated to continue as limited flow aloft holds the mid-level ridge largely stationary through the weekend.
Increasing moisture on Saturday will lead to a chance of afternoon showers and thunderstorms, mainly in SE Oregon which will be closer to the higher moisture. A well-defined low pressure system off the British Columbia coast will pull anomalously high moisture into the Pacific Northwest this weekend. The moisture plume resembles those seen in wintertime atmospheric river events, increasing the potential for thunderstorms producing heavy rain and small hail beginning Saturday ahead of the cold front. High- resolution guidance indicates convection developing ahead of the cold front Saturday afternoon across southeast Oregon into the west-central mountains of Idaho.
- Cooler temperatures and higher relative humidities will taper off by Sunday, with hot and dry conditions returning for the first half of the new week. The high terrain will be favored initially. The higher terrain will be favored for showers, with gusty outflows favoring the lower elevations. There may still be enough moisture for convection over the high terrain on Sunday, but with drier air moving in dry thunderstorms are possible.
- A subtropical ridge will develop and remain over the Southern Plains, limiting rain chances and allowing high temps to settle in the mid to upper 90s each day through the early work week ahead.
We will be under the influence of nearby high pressure systems from near surface through the upper levels throughout the weekend. Although we have high pressure dominating the local weather pattern, moisture and instability will be enough to result in isolated showers and storms each day.
(Today and tonight) In the mid/upper-levels, a well-defined pair of subtropical ridges were situated over the southern U. The eastern-most clusters of monsoonal thunderstorms have since dissipated due to the stout layer of subsidence associated with the mid-level ridge. (The 250 mb and 500 mb anticyclones are not aligned, with the mid-level anticyclone remaining much more broad, weaker in magnitude, and centered over the ARKLATEX. Despite the airmass becoming uncapped and convective temperatures being reached Saturday afternoon, strong, mid-level subsidence associated with the subtropical ridge will keep the coverage of storms at bay.
Pattern Synopsis and Forecast: Pattern consists of a ridge to our southwest which extends northward into the Northern Plains with west to northwest flow aloft across the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes. Convective allowing models (not all) are showing the potential for pockets of heavier rains within any of the storms or clusters that do develop, which makes sense given PWs well above normal, high freezing levels, and sufficient instability. Cooler conditions are anticipated as well, with breezy northeast winds ushering in the cooler airmass.
Another, stronger approaching wave out of Wyoming will spark more thunderstorms Saturday afternoon on the high plains. Thereafter, ridging takes hold over the central US, ever so slowly warming us up through midweek. The next shot at more active weather arrives late in the week as a stronger wave looks to ride the top of the ridge, but predictability is too low at this point to pinpoint any impacts associated with its passage. These higher values should lift northward a bit over the next few hours, with the northern fringe of 1000 J/kg making it to about the Highway 200 corridor.
The upper pattern this morning is defined by a trough of low pressure across California and the Great Basin, and an upper ridge (500-300 mb) of high pressure over Oklahoma extending into west north Texas. The SSW flow aloft across Southeast Arizona this morning begins to shift to the SW today as the upper ridge begins to drift SW into west Texas/northeast Chihuahua Mexico.
225 AM EDT Sat Aug 16 2025 High pressure lingers across the area today before a cold front pushes south across the region Sunday and Sunday night.
A slight cooling trend is expected to persist through the weekend as a trough of low pressure is situated over the Pacific Northwest while high pressure strengthens over the southern U.
333 AM EDT Sat Aug 16 2025 High pressure moves southeast today. A cold front approaches from the northwest tonight, and then crosses the area Sunday into Sunday night.
Highs will be in the upper 90s to the lower 105s, with heat indices around 110 though this isn't expected to eclipse 110 for more than 2 hours. With this expected to persist over the next few hours, the high risk of rip currents and Coastal Flood Advisory will be allowed to expire. Otherwise looking later into the week, models depict a low forming and riding the periphery of the ridge into our region.
1156 PM MDT Fri Aug 15 2025 - Isolated to widely scattered PM showers and thunderstorms will continue today and through the weekend with slightly cooler temperatures this weekend. A deep trough impacting the Northwest has shifted the mid and upper level flow to the south/southwest pushing some weak energy northeast across the CWA, this coupled with winds generally shifting to the south is bringing in some low level moisture into southeast Wyoming and the Nebraska Panhandle. Expect somewhat "cooler" temperatures today with highs topping out in the 80s and low 90s primarily west of the I-25 corridor and into the low to mid 90s across far eastern Wyoming and the Nebraska panhandle. Starting Sunday the Intermountain West starts to dry out as an upper level ridge becomes centered on the four corners region of the United States.
122 AM EDT Sat Aug 16 2025 High pressure will keep conditions dry through tomorrow, but there will be a noticeable warming trend. A strong cold front moves through on Sunday, causing some showers and thunderstorms, and a noticeable temperature drop in the afternoon.
154 AM EDT Sat Aug 16 2025 High pressure stretching from the Ohio Valley to New England will remain in control over the area through Saturday night. A cold front will push south across the region Sunday and Sunday night.
A high pressure system will be firmly over the area today and tonight. Afternoon heat indices should top out in the mid to upper 90s in the lowlands today.
Max temps today are likely to reach the low 90s most areas, excepting the higher elevations near the KY/VA border.
345 AM EDT Sat Aug 16 2025 High pressure builds back into the area this weekend. High pressure will continue to ridge down into the Carolinas today, though a meandering area of low pressure sits off the NC coast. Key Messages: - Sunday through mid-week, high pressure keeps the area mostly dry.
Upstream activity will weaken as it tracks east due to our lingering ridge and subsequent capping aloft. Northwest flow aloft persists into Sunday resulting in another cluster of storms riding atop the ridge and spilling into our area.
The broad pattern is an upper ridge over the central U. /mid MS River Valley with ridge riders moving out of the Northern Plains east to southeastward into WI/IA and perhaps northern IL. Heat-wise, highs under the ridge are expected to reach the mid 90s today across the region. With dew point temps in the low to mid 70s, heat indices will be around 105 and HeatRisk in the Major category.
107 AM EDT Sat Aug 16 2025 (Today through Sunday) Mid to upper level ridging is expected to remain the dominant synoptic feature driving local weather across South Florida through the weekend. It is worth mentioning that a (very) subtle tropical wave will move across the Florida Straits this afternoon, skirting the weakening ridge, and could inject some moisture back over the area through the afternoon and evening. High temperatures will reach the low to mid 90s with heat indices in the low 100s.
212 AM EDT Sat Aug 16 2025 High pressure will keep hot and dry weather in the forecast today.
(Saturday through Sunday night) The mid-level ridge shifts ever so slightly east for Saturday with 500 mb heights lowering 1 or 2 decameters. We have still issued a Heat Advisory for Saturday for the southeast where humidity remains higher and is closer to the ridge, and across north central Oklahoma in the post-harvest wheat belt where temperatures are still expected to be a little higher.
As we start our weekend strong high pressure will remain overhead.
Water vapor imagery/RAP analysis continue to show the mid/upper ridge meandering over Central Plains/Middle Mississippi Valley area.
Mid level ridging looks to gain a foothold across across the Rockies/High Plains.
These precip chances come from some warm sector moisture ahead of a cold front. Said cold front was associated with an atmospheric river that affected the Pacific Northwest earlier today, but has since lost much of its strength.
553 AM MDT Sat Aug 16 2025 - Afternoon thunderstorms will favor the higher terrain today. Enough moisture remains across western Colorado and eastern Utah to day do spawn another round of afternoon convection, especially behind the trough where clearing is occurring, but with drier air moving in, showers and storms will predominately favor the higher terrain. There may still be enough moisture for convection over the high terrain on Sunday, but with drier air moving in dry thunderstorms are possible.
807 AM EDT Sat Aug 16 2025 High pressure will keep hot and dry weather in the forecast today.
518 AM CDT Sat Aug 16 2025 - Another dangerously hot afternoon in spots, with the focus of the highest heat index values expected to be along and east of Highway 281.
Rain ends from west to east early this morning in the wake of a cold front progressing eastward over the Cascades.
729 AM EDT Sat Aug 16 2025 High pressure lingers across the area today before a cold front pushes south across the region Sunday and Sunday night.
756 AM EDT Sat Aug 16 2025 High pressure moves southeast today. A cold front approaches from the northwest tonight, and then crosses the area Sunday into Sunday night.
356 AM MDT Sat Aug 16 2025 - Afternoon thunderstorms will favor the higher terrain today. Enough moisture remains across western Colorado and eastern Utah to day do spawn another round of afternoon convection, especially behind the trough where clearing is occurring, but with drier air moving in, showers and storms will predominately favor the higher terrain. There may still be enough moisture for convection over the high terrain on Sunday, but with drier air moving in dry thunderstorms are possible.
702 AM EDT Sat Aug 16 2025 (Today through Sunday) Mid to upper level ridging is expected to remain the dominant synoptic feature driving local weather across South Florida through the weekend. It is worth mentioning that a (very) subtle tropical wave will move across the Florida Straits this afternoon, skirting the weakening ridge, and could inject some moisture back over the area through the afternoon and evening. High temperatures will reach the low to mid 90s with heat indices in the low 100s.
* Breezy afternoon winds and cooler than normal temperatures prevail through the weekend.
638 AM CDT Sat Aug 16 2025 - Another dangerously hot afternoon in spots, with the focus of the highest heat index values expected to be along and east of Highway 281.
Sunday, high pressure continues to remain strongest southwest of the County Warning Area (CWA). Further north, low pressure over Eastern Canada will feature a trailing cold front that passes through the Ohio Valley. Guidance suggests high temperatures will again be in the lower 90s, however increased moisture and the potential timing of showers and storms could present some challenges. If cirrus clouds linger tomorrow the high could be a degree or two cooler that the current forecast.
1217 PM CDT Sat Aug 16 2025 - Another dangerously hot afternoon in spots, with the focus of the highest heat index values expected to be along and east of Highway 281.
- Sunday will be hot, too, with temps peaking in the lower 90s and heat indices topping off near 100F.
Through the day today, mid level ridging over the Ozarks will continue to amplify and nudge east. Locally this will amount to rather hot day as the mostly clear skies under high pressure support afternoon temps in the mid 90s with heat indices near and just above 100. A low (10-20%) chance of storms will be possible in NE AL supported by NNE flow along the eastern periphery of the ridge. While the synoptic support will be very weak, hence the low chances, if any storms do develop they will be in a favorable environment for heavy rainfall, gusty winds, and frequent lighting.
A broad upper ridge then continues to build and remain in place across the central US into mid week, with some slowing of the overall pattern progression as Hurricane Erin approaches the southeastern US. Another upper level trough to move into the Canadian Rockies to set up southwest flow across the region by late week. Thermal ridge to build up through midweek ahead of the developing western troughing, therefore expect warming back into the mid to upper 80s through mid week. Majority of the low to mid clouds clearing out with the exception in the far east, gusty easterly to northeasterly winds starting to pick up for the afternoon.
Sunday, high pressure continues to remain strongest southwest of the County Warning Area (CWA). Further north, a low pressure over Eastern Canada will feature a trailing cold front, passing through the Ohio Valley. A combination of this cold front and showers rolling over the ridge of high pressure will create shower and storm chances Sunday. Guidance suggests high temperatures will again be in the lower 90s, however increased moisture and the potential timing of showers and storms could present some challenges. If cirrus clouds linger tomorrow the high could be a degree or two cooler that the current forecast.
112 PM EDT Sat Aug 16 2025 A cold front will bring a round of showers and a few thunderstorms Sunday, followed by cooler weather for the start of the work week. An area of low pressure will approach the Great Lakes region through mid-week bringing a period of unsettled weather. Meanwhile, a cold front will be approaching from Ontario and Quebec overnight. The cold front will move through the region Sunday with the threat of showers and storms continuing. Most of the showers/storms should be south of the region by mid to late afternoon as the cold front exits. The high will track from the ON/QC border Sunday night to the eastern portion of QC and the Canadian Maritimes.
Strong Pacific jet energy has pushed troughing into the western Conus with the southern extent sweeping into the SW Conus delivering copious amounts of midlevel dry air per WV imagery. Objective analysis indicates a solid pool of 10+ g/kg boundary layer mixing ratio still covering lower deserts reflected in sfc dewpoints well into the low/mid 60s, however early morning sounding data from Yuma already sampled tremendous drying above the H8 layer juxtaposed with a strengthening SW wind trajectory. This will lead to most of the lower desert regions to see afternoon highs near 102-105 degrees. This will lead to afternoon highs across the lower deserts between 110- 115 degrees.
Shower and thunderstorm coverage has been less so far this afternoon with subsident, anticyclonic flow associated with the subtropical ridge becoming more influential, and this will be the general trend for the next few days.
The low-level moisture has allowed for the development of the cumulus field however towering cumulus are having a hard time intensifying into strong storms due to the warm, dry layer.
West of I-65, storm coverage should be limited to a stray shower or two through the remainder of the day as subsidence from high pressure is slightly stronger due to the closer proximity of high pressure.
Temperatures this afternoon will be a few degrees warmer than yesterday with highs between 90 to 100 degrees in the lower elevations and between 70 to 80 degrees in the higher elevations. The upper pattern this morning is defined by a trough of low pressure across California and the Great Basin, and an upper ridge (500-300 mb) of high pressure over Oklahoma extending into west north Texas. The SSW flow aloft across Southeast Arizona this morning begins to shift to the SW today as the upper ridge begins to drift SW into west Texas/northeast Chihuahua Mexico.