Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
The low level jet is forecast to weaken through the morning hours as it shifts eastward from the push of a mid/upper level trof axis. Precip chances taper off from west to east and are expected to exit Northwest Arkansas mid afternoon with the exiting frontal boundary and mid/upper level trof axis.
A pattern switch is likely this weekend which will bring cooler temperatures and chances for valley rain and mountain snow showers. This time of year it usually takes a little bit of time to realize the warmest temperatures at the surface after the passage of the ridge axis.
552 AM CST Wed Nov 13 2024 (Today) High pressure layered across the mid/northern Atlantic states will allow the influx of moisture to spread back into the central TN Valley starting later today, evidenced by PWs climbing to around 1. An upper ridge pattern which had been in place over much of the eastern CONUS will also translate eastward into the Atlantic states, as a deep/potent upper trough axis rotates across the northern/mid Plains. With the increasing cloud cover/rainfall, afternoon highs look to trend in the lower/mid 60s for most spots.
502 AM CST Wed Nov 13 2024 Updated at 501 AM CST Wed Nov 13 2024 - Breezy and cooler Today.
522 AM CST Wed Nov 13 2024 - Slightly cooler temperatures will follow a cold frontal passage today.
(Today through Thursday Night) To begin the period, a cold front is expected to move through the state later today, bringing the chance for rain. High temperatures are expected to be in the lower 60s to lower 70s through the period with overnight lows dropping in the upper 30s to mid 40s.
533 AM CST Wed Nov 13 2024 (Today through Thursday Night) The cold front is currently located just west of San Antonio in a line from Del Rio to the Wichita Falls area. The FROPA will nudge the temperatures down to more seasonal temperatures for Thursday as temperatures warm into the low to mid 60s north of I- 10 and to the mid 70s to near 80 degrees south of I-10.
940 AM EST Wed Nov 13 2024 High pressure will bring sunny, dry and cool weather today with less wind.
622 AM EST Wed Nov 13 2024 High pressure will bring sunny, dry and cool weather today with less wind.
A stronger front across north Texas into Oklahoma will merge with the easterly wave, both of which will shift into the Deep South overnight tonight allowing for high pressure to build areawide across the Four State Region. Overnight lows are forecast to range from the lower 40s across southeast Oklahoma to the lower 50s elsewhere. Upper-level ridging to prevail across the region through Thursday allowing for mostly sunny skies and high temperatures in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Overnight lows are forecast to fall into the upper 30s across southeast Oklahoma and south Arkansas while the remainder of the region can expect lows in the lower 40s.
well ahead of troughing rotating east across the central Plains. Pattern Synopsis and Forecast: Upper-level ridging will slide eastward today as an upper-level trough swings across the Plains. Associated low pressure will begin to approach the Great Lakes Region from the west with high pressure departing from the northeast. Pattern Synopsis and Forecast: Upper level energy continues to progress into Michigan on Thursday, but the center of the upper low looks to remain way to the south across the Ohio Valley, almost breaking off from the piece that will be affecting northern MI. Thus, low pressure system, weak at that, tracks into southern/southwestern MI, then weakens and drifts southeastward.
A trough currently over western KS will traverse the area today, bringing an area of showers and perhaps thunderstorms west to east this morning and afternoon. Look for highs in the upper 50s to mid 60s today, then a couple degrees cooler for Thursday.
(Today through Thursday Night) The cold front is currently located just west of San Antonio in a line from Del Rio to the Wichita Falls area. The FROPA will nudge the temperatures down to more seasonal temperatures for Thursday as temperatures warm into the low to mid 60s north of I- 10 and to the mid 70s to near 80 degrees south of I-10.
354 AM MST Wed Nov 13 2024 - Cooler temperatures and sunny skies are expected for our Wednesday.
(Today and tonight) Light precipitation has begun moving onshore across NorCal overnight, with the broad moisture plume out ahead of the deepening trough well depicted on satellite via nighttime microphysics RGB. The upper trough deepens sharply overnight tonight into tomorrow, bringing a colder airmass with it. Steeper midlevel lapse rates tomorrow afternoon and evening could result in more isolated thunderstorms, mainly along the coast as the primary cold front moves south across our area tomorrow.
Issued by National Weather Service Miami FL 230 PM EST Wed Nov 13 2024 A mid to upper level trough will be moving east from the Central United States and into the Western Atlantic waters by end of this week. This should allow for a low pressure system to develop in the Western Atlantic waters which in turn will push a cold front through West Central Florida late this week.
Expect warmer temperatures and light winds today and Thursday, with dry conditions and clear skies.
HREF probability-matched mean has the highest amounts across roughly the southeast half of central Indiana, where ascent and moisture best align for the longest period and is also potentially enhanced by embedded convective elements. The more contiguous area of rain should shift east during the pre- dawn hours as the core of the low level jet and isentropic ascent moves east, and the system's dry conveyor belt moves in. But the negatively-tilted midlevel trough axis will not cross until midday.
311 PM EST Wed Nov 13 2024 Low pressure will bring widespread rain and gusty winds tonight through Thursday.
A small amplitude ridge will move into the southern High Plains from the west, keeping the area dry throughout the short term forecast period.
The highest rainfall amounts will be south of I-70 where over an inch is expected.
Low amplitude ridging builds back in post sys later Fri into Sun ahead of weak nrn stream wave streaking through the James Bay region. An upper level trough across the central/southern Plains will shift eastward into Thursday morning.
- Dry conditions and warmer temperatures (10 to 15F above normal) with highs in the mid to upper 50s for the end of the week.
320 PM EST Wed Nov 13 2024 High pressure supplying a cool and dry airmass will build across the area from the north through tonight. A cold front will bring a chance of rain Thursday thru Thursday night while low pressure develops along this front across Eastern NC. The low will track out to sea during Fri with blustery conditions entailing. Near normal temps under cool and dry high pressure will settle across the area this weekend. Latest surface analysis shows high pressure in Quebec that extends all the way down the U. The positioning of the high and the low has set up northeasterly gradient winds across northeast SC and southeast NC, with a few gusts near 20 mph recorded earlier this afternoon.
1048 AM MST Wed Nov 13 2024 - Cooler temperatures and sunny skies are expected for our Wednesday.
A strong upper level trough currently making its way through the PacNW will bring rain showers and isolated thunderstorm to areas near the coast. The strongest cold front within an active, wet and windy pattern will move across the area today, and include a chance of coastal thunderstorms (mainly late in the day). Winds will be strongest at the coast, over the higher terrain, in the Shasta Valley, and east of the Cascades with southerly gusts of 45 to 60 mph expected. Shasta area will bring the lower snow levels.
(Rest of today through Thursday) We are still on track for a soaking rain with a low pressure system and cold front crossing the region this afternoon through tonight. (Thursday Night through next Wednesday) Dry and slightly cooler high pressure will move in for the end of the week.
1213 PM EST Wed Nov 13 2024 High pressure will bring sunny, dry and cool weather today with less wind.
A storm system continues to move onto the West Coast this morning, with a warm front moving across southwest Idaho and southeast Oregon.
(Tonight through Thursday night) A weak cold front will continue to push south and east through the the Coastal Plains early this afternoon.
1208 PM CST Wed Nov 13 2024 Cooler today, but average temperatures return through the rest of the week. (Today through Thursday night) A large scale upper level trough traverses across the central CONUS today. Behind the cold front, surface winds will flow from the northwest all throughout today.
319 PM EST Wed Nov 13 2024 Thursday will see increasing clouds as high pressure pushes east of the region.
(Through Tonight) Drier air and gusty west to northwest wind continue to spread eastward this afternoon, having reached the Highway 75 corridor at the time of this discussion.
Discussion: Big lumbering upper trough is expected to swing through the wider region through tomorrow, bringing impacts to our local area. Surface cold front will be in Middle Tennessee at daybreak tomorrow, and then steadily push across the remainder of Tennessee and into Virginia by the evening hours. Ahead of and especially heading into the first few hours of rain will be a ramp up on the strength of the low level jet of wind up to 40 to 50 knots of wind flowing across the mountains.
(Rest of today through Thursday) Generally benign weather conditions forecast for today as a cold front drifts south of our region towards the Florida Straits. High temps today will be in the low to mid 80s across the east coast metro and around the lake region, to upper 80s over SW FL. Dewpoints in the low to middle 60s will make it a very pleasant day. Afternoon high temps will be in the low to mid 80s.
(This evening through Thursday Night) Today's dry cold front is currently moving through portions of the Brazos Valley, and should push offshore late tonight. This will usher in cooler and drier conditions, with lows for tonight/Thursday morning in the mid 40s/mid 50s inland and upper 50s/60s along the coast.
100 PM EST Wed Nov 13 2024 High pressure will bring sunny, dry and cool weather today with less wind.
1149 AM CST Wed Nov 13 2024 (Today through Thursday Night) To begin the period, a cold front is expected to move through the state later today, bringing the chance for rain. High temperatures are expected to be in the lower 60s to lower 70s through the period with overnight lows dropping in the upper 30s to mid 40s.
1144 AM CST Wed Nov 13 2024 Updated at 1132 AM CST Wed Nov 13 2024 - A cold front will will result in cooler temperatures today.
913 AM PST Wed Nov 13 2024 Warmer and dry today with cooling beginning to spread inland on Thursday.
Surface analyses indicate a 1039 mb high over Quebec is partnered with a deep layer mid-level ridge over the eastern United States, fueling a potent pressure gradient across the southern United States. Dew points are forecast to decrease to near 70 in the Lower Keys with upper 60s possible in the middle and Upper Keys.
(Tonight) A low pressure system nearing the TN Valley will have significant influence over tonights weather. Low to medium rain chances will remain through the afternoon, rain chances will greatly increase after sunset as the cold front approaches the area. While sufficient shear and lift will be present (due to the proximity of the low), the lack of instability will greatly hinder chances for strong storms.
Issued by National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM 1202 PM CST Wed Nov 13 2024 - Slightly cooler temperatures will follow a cold frontal passage today.
1107 AM CST Wed Nov 13 2024 Updated at 1107 AM CST Wed Nov 13 2024 - Breezy and cooler Today.
The Sawtooths look to see the bulk of the snowfall with around 5-10 inches likely across the highest peaks but as we drop in elevation to around Galena Summit, totals will be closer to 4 inches, 2-3 around Stanley and an inch or so in Ketchum.
All of this activity is tied to an incoming upper lvl trough currently moving through the plains. An area of low pressure associated with this system will trek across northern Missouri and into Illinois by Thursday morning. A push of drier air will follow a cold front passage bringing clearing skies. A period of dry weather can be expected Thursday through the weekend associated with ridging aloft and at the surface.
1112 AM CST Wed Nov 13 2024 (Today through Thursday Night) The cold front is currently located just west of San Antonio in a line from Del Rio to the Wichita Falls area. The FROPA will nudge the temperatures down to more seasonal temperatures for Thursday as temperatures warm into the low to mid 60s north of I- 10 and to the mid 70s to near 80 degrees south of I-10.
A longwave trough axis is observed drifting eastwards across the region early this afternoon using water vapor imagery, with surface observations showing a front/inverted trough moving across the I-29 corridor. For tonight, expect mid/upper level ridging to lead to mostly clear skies, leading to overnight lows in the upper 20s to lower 30s west of I-29, and lower to upper 30s east of I-29.
1103 AM CST Wed Nov 13 2024 (Rest of Today) As an approaching trough moves from the Plains into the TN Valley later today, we find ourselves sandwiched between troughing to our west and high pressure to our east. SE flow around the high pressure will aid in advecting in moist coastal air from the Gulf resulting in PWATS rising near and above 1. Winds will remain elevated through the day as the pressure gradient constricts ahead of the approaching trough, gusts of 20-25 MPH will be possible with locally higher gusts in terrain areas. The main feature, the trough and associated cold front, look to move into the area late tonight through the day tomorrow.
(This evening through Thursday Night) Upper-air analysis this afternoon is showing troughing across the central CONUS that was responsible for our early morning cloud cover and rain across our eastern zones. Meanwhile at the surface, a cold front currently extends from central Oklahoma just to the east of Oklahoma City southward into the north central Texas. Lows tonight range from the lower 40s to around 50 degrees.
- Dry conditions are expected to end the week with warmer temperatures into the weekend. A weak trough is forecast to move across the area tonight into Thursday morning. Low temperatures tonight will be in the lower to mid 40s across the area. The highest rainfall totals are expected across northwest Illinois. High temperatures on Thursday are forecast to be in the lower to mid 50s.
(Rest of Today) As an approaching trough moves from the Plains into the TN Valley later today, we find ourselves sandwiched between troughing to our west and high pressure to our east. SE flow around the high pressure will aid in advecting in moist coastal air from the Gulf resulting in PWATS rising near and above 1. Winds will remain elevated through the day as the pressure gradient constricts ahead of the approaching trough, gusts of 20-25 MPH will be possible with locally higher gusts in terrain areas. The main feature, the trough and associated cold front, look to move into the area late tonight through the day tomorrow.
245 PM EST Wed Nov 13 2024 Thursday will see increasing clouds as high pressure pushes east of the region.
1128 AM CST Wed Nov 13 2024 (Rest of today through Thursday) We are still on track for a soaking rain with a low pressure system and cold front crossing the region this afternoon through tonight. (Thursday Night through next Wednesday) Dry and slightly cooler high pressure will move in for the end of the week.
749 PM CST Wed Nov 13 2024 After some scattered showers this afternoon, a solid batch of rain is lifting into the west and south this evening and will overspread the area over the next several hours as the upper trough swings closer to the area. (Rest of today through Thursday) We are still on track for a soaking rain with a low pressure system and cold front crossing the region this afternoon through tonight. (Thursday Night through next Wednesday) Dry and slightly cooler high pressure will move in for the end of the week.
512 PM CST Wed Nov 13 2024 (Tonight through Thursday night) A weak cold front will continue to push south and east through the the Coastal Plains early this afternoon.
454 PM MST Wed Nov 13 2024 - Dry conditons with mainly warmer temperatures for Thursday.
908 PM EST Wed Nov 13 2024 Low pressure will bring widespread rain and gusty winds tonight through Thursday.
503 PM CST Wed Nov 13 2024 (This evening through Thursday Night) Today's dry cold front is currently moving through portions of the Brazos Valley, and should push offshore late tonight. This will usher in cooler and drier conditions, with lows for tonight/Thursday morning in the mid 40s/mid 50s inland and upper 50s/60s along the coast.
Rain continues to spread across the area this afternoon associated with a low pressure system that was quite visible in satellite imagery around midday moving through southern Nebraska/eastern Kansas. This low will continue to trek eastward around the Iowa/Missouri borders through the evening hours, exiting the state early Thursday morning. Although the bulk of the precipitation pushes east of the area later this evening, some wrap around rain will remain on the backside of the low as will lingering light rain/drizzle that could last into the overnight hours with low level saturation remaining in forecast soundings well into the night.
A cold front pushes through southeastern TX/southwestern LA late tonight ushering in drier air and cooler temperatures. With plentiful dry air in place and CAA persisting in the wake of the front, we'll only see daytime highs in the low 70s on Thursday.
543 PM EST Wed Nov 13 2024 (Rest of today through Thursday) Generally benign weather conditions forecast for today as a cold front drifts south of our region towards the Florida Straits. High temps today will be in the low to mid 80s across the east coast metro and around the lake region, to upper 80s over SW FL. Dewpoints in the low to middle 60s will make it a very pleasant day. Afternoon high temps will be in the low to mid 80s.
225 PM PST Wed Nov 13 2024 A warm front continues to bring snow to Washington Pass and Sherman Pass and widespread rain across the lower terrain.
546 PM CST Wed Nov 13 2024 (Tonight) A low pressure system nearing the TN Valley will have significant influence over tonights weather. Low to medium rain chances will remain through the afternoon, rain chances will greatly increase after sunset as the cold front approaches the area. While sufficient shear and lift will be present (due to the proximity of the low), the lack of instability will greatly hinder chances for strong storms.
254 PM MST Wed Nov 13 2024 - Dry conditons with mainly warmer temperatures for Thursday.
648 PM EST Wed Nov 13 2024 High pressure will bring clear, dry, and cool weather with less wind today and tonight.
426 PM EST Wed Nov 13 2024 High pressure will build across the region through Thursday.
542 PM CST Wed Nov 13 2024 (Tonight through Thursday night) Key Messages: - A dry cold front to move through the region tonight.
Thursday is shaping up to be quite similar, but perhaps a few degrees warmer.
(This afternoon through Thursday) The approaching cold front is moving into the Mid to lower MS river valley. This frontal, boundary is moving pretty fast and should have enough strength to push the high pressure ridge over GA right now eastward as it marches across the southeastern U.
632 PM EST Wed Nov 13 2024 Thursday will see increasing clouds as high pressure pushes east of the region.
236 PM MST Wed Nov 13 2024 KEY MESSAGES: - Widespread snow in the higher terrain tonight.
255 PM PST Wed Nov 13 2024 A warm front continues to bring snow to Washington Pass and Sherman Pass and widespread rain across the lower terrain.
Convective showers and thunderstorms will continue to impact the region in the wake of a strong cold front. Cooler temperatures are expected for late this week into the weekend. Rainfall rates and gusty winds are beginning to wind down this afternoon as the cold front traverses the area. A broad upper trough complex will cool and destabilize upper levels, contributing to favorable Cape profiles enhanced by SW wind shear.
716 PM EST Wed Nov 13 2024 Moisture will spread into the area from the west tonight into Thursday ahead of a cold front.
(Tonight through Thursday night) Key Messages: - A dry cold front to move through the region tonight.
516 PM CST Wed Nov 13 2024 Updated at 515 PM CST Wed Nov 13 2024 - Chilly tonight, warmer tomorrow.
(This evening through Thursday night) Strong upper trough extends from near Omaha southward to western Louisiana this afternoon with ridging over the East Coast and the Rockies. Trough should continue to lift northeast with frontal boundary exiting the area prior to midnight.
502 PM CST Wed Nov 13 2024 - Slightly cooler temperatures through Thursday.
648 PM EST Wed Nov 13 2024 Low pressure will bring widespread rain and gusty winds tonight through Thursday.
520 PM CST Wed Nov 13 2024 (Through Tonight) Drier air and gusty west to northwest wind continue to spread eastward this afternoon, having reached the Highway 75 corridor at the time of this discussion.
534 PM CST Wed Nov 13 2024 (This evening through Thursday night) Strong upper trough extends from near Omaha southward to western Louisiana this afternoon with ridging over the East Coast and the Rockies. Trough should continue to lift northeast with frontal boundary exiting the area prior to midnight.
640 PM EST Wed Nov 13 2024 Thursday will see increasing clouds as high pressure pushes east of the region.
556 PM CST Wed Nov 13 2024 (This evening through Thursday Night) Upper-air analysis this afternoon is showing troughing across the central CONUS that was responsible for our early morning cloud cover and rain across our eastern zones. Meanwhile at the surface, a cold front currently extends from central Oklahoma just to the east of Oklahoma City southward into the north central Texas. Lows tonight range from the lower 40s to around 50 degrees.
534 PM CST Wed Nov 13 2024 (Rest of today through Thursday) We are still on track for a soaking rain with a low pressure system and cold front crossing the region this afternoon through tonight. (Thursday Night through next Wednesday) Dry and slightly cooler high pressure will move in for the end of the week.
Discussion: Currently rain is continuing to move through the southern Appalachian region along and ahead of the cold front which is making it's way across Middle TN and Alabama as of this writing. With the track of the upper low providing much of the synoptic forcing for this rainfall expected to move through the Mid Atlantic later today, parts of northeast TN and southwest VA could be close enough to see some light wrap-around precipitation into the evening/overnight hours tonight. The other impact from this system will come from the low level jet out of the south moving over the Appalachian Mountains tonight and continuing through much of the morning hours today.
1150 PM CST Wed Nov 13 2024 (Tonight through Thursday night) Key Messages: - A dry cold front to move through the region tonight.
1153 PM CST Wed Nov 13 2024 (Rest of tonight) Widespread showers continued across the Tennessee Valley this evening, as a cold front extending from west of St Louis, to NW Lousiana heads eastward.
1253 AM EST Thu Nov 14 2024 Thursday will see increasing clouds as high pressure pushes east of the region.
1028 PM CST Wed Nov 13 2024 (Tonight through Thursday night) A weak cold front will continue to push south and east through the the Coastal Plains early this afternoon.
1051 PM CST Wed Nov 13 2024 - Slightly cooler temperatures through Thursday.
1010 PM EST Wed Nov 13 2024 High pressure will bring clear, dry, and cool weather with less wind today and tonight.
(Rest of tonight) Widespread showers continued across the Tennessee Valley this evening, as a cold front extending from west of St Louis, to NW Lousiana heads eastward.