Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Temps will likely be a bit cooler near the lake again this afternoon as a lake breeze moves inland. A broad upper trough will shift a bit more into the area by Sunday, while a weak surface front drops in from the north.
944 AM EDT Sat Jul 20 2024 Seasonable temperatures and good chances for showers and thunderstorms will continue for most of the next seven days as Bermuda High offshore and the Piedmont Trough inland remain nearly stationary. A cold front just north and west of the area will remain near the area today and tonight as weak upper level energy approaches from the sw. Highs today should reach the upper 80s to around 90 with lows tonight in the low to mid 70s.
650 AM EDT Sat Jul 20 2024 High pressure extending across the lower Great Lakes will weaken on Sunday. High pressure will remain across the lower Great Lakes today.
412 AM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024 - Backdoor cold front today brings a chance for showers and thunderstorms.
Deep mean layer ridging remain in place across much of the North Atlantic Ocean with the western periphery of this ridge extending westward through the Florida peninsula and into the central Gulf of Mexico. However, there is still a shallow moist layer present in the low levels between 975 mb and 950 mb.
608 AM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024 - Backdoor cold front today brings a chance for showers and thunderstorms.
High pressure building in tonight should bring clearing skies (from west to east) and light winds to promote fog formation into early Sunday morning. Fair and warm weather with light wind and moderate humidity is expected Sunday, as surface ridging and associated low-pwat airmass builds across the state. Ensemble mean 850mb temps near 17C supports max temps ranging from the low 80s over the N Mtns, to around 90F across the Susq Valley.
Most locations will be clear of clouds and rain to start the day, so afternoon highs should sneak back into the low to mid-90s, with lows tomorrow dropping into the upper-60s and low-70s.
123 PM EDT Sat Jul 20 2024 (Rest of today through Sunday) A rather persisting synoptic pattern remains across the region with a long sfc frontal boundary stretching across most of the SE CONUS and weak high pressure lingering over the W Atl. Temperatures remain hot each day with afternoon highs in the low to mid 90s each afternoon, along with heat indices in triple digits during the day.
Sfc boundary has lifted northward as a warm front across southern KY and northern TN. Current radar images from area WSR-88d show a few isolated showers/storms forming along the KY/TN border, just south of the warm front. An upper low coming dropping southward out of the Upper Midwest will open up into a trough and start to swing through the region as well during the day. This will help to increase the low level moisture northward as dew points climb into the mid/upper 60s across north central KY and southern IN while we will have low 70 dew points across southern KY.
High pressure building in keeps warm temperatures around. The western US high pressure has shifted slightly westward for today. Temperatures are also similar, if not a few degrees cooler. For the coming workweek, the high pressure builds back east. This brings some warmer temperatures and less rain chances, though it still looks like some isolated (15%-20%) afternoon convection occurs. When it comes to smoke, the HRRR shows the highest smoke concentrations over western Wyoming today, which thins this evening and overnight. Wind will be the saving grace, again, since high pressure that is bringing the hotter/drier air will keep wind light in general.
1235 PM EDT Sat Jul 20 2024 (Rest of today through Sunday) A rather persisting synoptic pattern remains across the region with a long sfc frontal boundary stretching across most of the SE CONUS and weak high pressure lingering over the W Atl. Temperatures remain hot each day with afternoon highs in the low to mid 90s each afternoon, along with heat indices in triple digits during the day.
(This evening through Sunday) Western Central Texas will be wedged between a high pressure off to the west and a trough across the eastern Plains.
This combined with an increase in mostly midlevel cloud cover should yield warmer low temperatures compared to the past few nights. Status quo is the rule for temperatures, with highs mostly in the low 80s on Sunday and lows Sunday night in the 60s. The high temperatures would be some 5-7 degrees below normal but lows near to slightly below normal.
(Tonight through Saturday) Shower/thunderstorm chances will be on the increase tonight into Sunday morning as a stronger disturbance rotates around base of mid level trough with a semi-favorable upper jet couplet developing.
Highs will only be in the low to mid 80s for much of Oklahoma, with some upper 80s to low 90s across our Texas counties.
Near the surface, a weak trough axis is shifting slowly east through central Kansas into eastern Kansas. Steepening mid-level lapse rates within a northeasterly upslope flow where sufficient moisture is providing increased instability (MUCAPE values in excess of 1000 to 1500 J/kg), will set the stage for diurnally driven thunderstorm development in eastern Colorado as H5 vort maxima cycle southeast off an upper ridge axis.
/96 (Now through Sunday) Our overall synoptic pattern will remain relatively unchanged through the near term period, with upper troughing draped across the south-central CONUS, and upper ridging building west across the Gulf coast region from high pressure centered out over the Atlantic by Sunday. Lows Saturday night mainly in the lower to middle 70s over interior locations, with upper 70s closer to the coast and even some lower 80s at the beaches and along the barrier islands.
245 PM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024 The warm front has moved north through the area and showers and thunderstorms continue to fire up. (Rest of today through Sunday) Dew point temperatures are already in the low 70s for most around the area this morning with air temperatures not too far ahead with values in the upper 70s. Activity will dwindle down tonight, giving way to a cloudy and muggy night with lows in the low 70s. A very deep cut off low will traverse Canada this week, resulting in a troughing pattern lingering over portions of the midwest and the Ohio Valley. Southwesterly flow embedded within this trough will help to continuously stream in small disturbances through the week.
252 PM EDT Sat Jul 20 2024 (This afternoon through Sunday) An upper-level trough axis is centered over the MS River Valley with north and central GA beneath southwesterly flow aloft. No real pattern change will take place tomorrow (Sunday) with upper-level troughing and similar PWAT values to those today.
(Rest of today through Sunday) A rather persisting synoptic pattern remains across the region with a long sfc frontal boundary stretching across most of the SE CONUS and weak high pressure lingering over the W Atl. Temperatures remain hot each day with afternoon highs in the low to mid 90s each afternoon, along with heat indices in triple digits during the day.
A moist southwesterly flow will remain in place during the period, as an upper trough deepens across the lower Ohio Valley/MS Valley regions.
Recent runs of the HRRR and its ensembles have been handling this dry wedge nicely which raises confidence in mostly isolated precip this afternoon on the Caprock near the trough with slightly better coverage farther east where dewpoints should not mix out as much. Even outside of this potential focus, minimal capping combined with a slight westward retreat of ridging aloft, and richer moisture throughout the column compared to days past should support scattered thunderstorm development by mid-afternoon.
Does look like storms should be moving quicker compared to yesterday which should minimize the flooding threat but any storms that do develop will have high rain rates in the high moisture environment. The upper trough axis will also be nearly stationary from the western Great Lakes through northern TX with short waves rotating through the axis and across the SE US.
137 PM PDT Sat Jul 20 2024 High pressure over the Southwest will bring a very hot weekend inland along with very warm nights.
The forecast area will remain between mid level ridging over the Atlantic and fairly broad troughing to the west. At the surface, high pressure resides offshore, with a weak trough inland. High temperatures will average in the low to mid 90s with heat indices peaking 100-105F in most locations, with some 105-108 values closer to the coast. The offshore ridge looks to expand westward across the area midweek, before likely weakening late week as a trough passes by to the north.
152 PM EDT Sat Jul 20 2024 High pressure extending across the lower Great Lakes will weaken on Sunday. High pressure will remain across the lower Great Lakes today.
Temperatures are generally in the low to middle 60s with light and variable winds. Current water vapor imagery nicely showing an upper level trough over the intersection of Minnesota, South Dakota, and North Dakota. Satellite shows some clouds over the FA, High confidence in lack of shear to organize thunderstorms puts confidence high in expecting thunderstorms to be mainly in the southern Red River Valley and MN Lakes country associated with this low. Temperatures will be in the 80s through the work week, possibly warming into the low 90s as the UL ridge gets compressed before flattening.
1230 PM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024 (Rest of today through Sunday) Dew point temperatures are already in the low 70s for most around the area this morning with air temperatures not too far ahead with values in the upper 70s. Activity will dwindle down tonight, giving way to a cloudy and muggy night with lows in the low 70s. A very deep cut off low will traverse Canada this week, resulting in a troughing pattern lingering over portions of the midwest and the Ohio Valley. Southwesterly flow embedded within this trough will help to continuously stream in small disturbances through the week.
400 PM EDT Sat Jul 20 2024 High pressure extending across the lower Great Lakes will weaken on Sunday. It will be a little warmer with lows in the lower to mid 60s. Meanwhile, mid level troughing will dig ever so slowly to the east/southeast into the middle Mississippi River Valley. Highs will be similar to today, mainly in the lower to mid 80s. Some embedded s/wv energy rippling through the mean mid level trough will combine with the deeper moisture to bring at least a chance of showers and storms to the southern half of the CWFA. Lows will be in the lower to mid 60s.
919 AM PDT Sat Jul 20 2024 High pressure over the Southwest will bring a very hot weekend inland along with very warm nights.
The RAP has consistently highlighted this area and into north central Iowa for potential funnel clouds later this afternoon and evening as the NST parameter peaks where ambient vorticity from the parent upper low overlaps with near surface instability/stretching, coincident with clearing and spotty cellular convection on satellite imagery.
High Pressure over the Desert Southwest and a midlevel trough over the Mid/Upper Mississippi River Valley will establish a west/northwesterly flow regime aloft.
Additionally, afternoon through evening cumulus development will once again occur over the higher terrain on Saturday, with an isolated shower or thunderstorm also being possible over these same areas and along/east of a KEKS, to KBZN, to KLWT, to KHVR line.
322 PM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024 - Cooler than normal temperatures continue through the new week.
Continued smoky and very hot with upper level ridge extending from the Great Basin northward through the Intermountain region and into Alberta.
The upper level high begins it's slow transition eastward this week, but the next couple of days will not see it's effects. Instead, a cold front will allow further rain chances Saturday into Sunday. Pockets of strong instability (MLCAPE 1000-2000 J/kg) coupled with modest (25-35 kt) 0-6 km bulk shear should be sufficient enough for storms to grow upscale and sustain themselves in the High Plains.
1236 PM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024 - Backdoor cold front today brings a chance for showers and thunderstorms.
1246 PM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024 (Today and tonight) The synoptic-scale upper pattern will be pretty constant through sunrise Sunday with the large upper high over the Great Basin and a low over the upper Mississippi Valley.
(Rest of today through Sunday) Dew point temperatures are already in the low 70s for most around the area this morning with air temperatures not too far ahead with values in the upper 70s. Activity will dwindle down tonight, giving way to a cloudy and muggy night with lows in the low 70s. A very deep cut off low will traverse Canada this week, resulting in a troughing pattern lingering over portions of the midwest and the Ohio Valley. Southwesterly flow embedded within this trough will help to continuously stream in small disturbances through the week.
1049 AM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024 - Temperatures will trend warmer each day through the weekend; however, they will remain below normal for the next 7 days.
1149 AM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024 (Today through Sunday Night) An upper level high pressure system is over the western U. with an upper trough over the Great Lakes and extending through the eastern U. Highs today and Sunday will be in the lower 80s to lower 90s.
An upper level trough extending from the Great Lakes to the central plains will remain in place and bring periods of showers and isolated storms to the region through tonight. Witt Td's in the lower 60s, the dew point depressions should become rather small allowing for some uncommon impacts to visibilities in valleys and other low areas. Upper level energy wrapping around the trough over the region Sunday will allow for the development of scattered to isolated showers and occasional storms through the day Sunday and into Sunday night.
1241 PM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024 (Today through Sunday) The mid-level ridge over the Four Corners will slowly drift towards the west, as a mid-level trough moves over the Central U. However models keep the development of showers and thunderstorms on the low end. While the high temperatures for today and tomorrow are in the mid to upper 90s.
Westerly winds of this trough were proving quite dry with dewpoints mixing out into the low/mid 50s over much of the Caprock which has dealt a hefty blow to CAPEs. For this evening and overnight, the NBM looks too generous with PoPs in most areas given an overall downturn in activity as shown by multiple runs of the HRRR and recent HREF mean, so we'll advertise low PoPs with increasing chances later in the night near the TX/NM border for what should be a cluster of storms spreading south across eastern NM, and also in the far sern TX PH along the fringes of increasingly cyclonic NW flow far from an upper low over the Upper Midwest. Sunday features weak height falls as an upper high currently over AZ retreats to NV.
312 PM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024 - Temperatures will trend warmer each day through the weekend; however, they will remain below normal for the next 7 days.
(This afternoon through Sunday night) A weak upper level disturbance and associated cold front, along with daytime heating are causing scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop this afternoon.
Temps thus far have struggled to surpass the lower 80s, with some spots still in the mid 70s. Some breaks in the cloud cover may still allow highs later today to climb more into the lower/mid 80s for many areas.
132 PM EDT Sat Jul 20 2024 Seasonable temperatures and good chances for showers and thunderstorms will continue for most of the next seven days as Bermuda High offshore and the Piedmont Trough inland remain nearly stationary. A cold front just north and west of the area will remain near the area today and tonight as weak upper level energy approaches from the sw. Highs today should reach the upper 80s to around 90 with lows tonight in the low to mid 70s.
Isolated showers and thunderstorms return today and Sunday afternoons and will favor the higher terrain. Meanwhile, an upper-level high pressure system will center itself overhead, resulting in persistent above-average temperatures. The upper-level area of high pressure typically responsible for its monsoonal moisture flux into the Desert Southwest will shift overhead today. With the high overhead, the moisture flux up the Colorado River Valley from northern Mexico is cut off. However, remnant moisture trapped beneath the high coupled with heat-driven instability and orographic lift will result in isolated thunderstorms in the higher terrain of the Mojave Desert and southern Great Basin each afternoon through the weekend.
358 PM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024 - Backdoor cold front moving south across the area this afternoon has brought scattered showers and thunderstorms.
With the increased activity high temperatures will remain around normal and in the low 90s.
An expansive area of high pressure in the western North Atlantic maintains moderate easterly winds across the region, which in turn are pumping in high dew points and warm temperatures tonight. Overnight, the high will strengthen and winds will increase a few knots, yet the aforementioned dry air will continue to impede shower development near the island chain. From synopsis, Atlantic ridging will remain across the Florida Peninsula through the remainder of the weekend, with moderate to occasionally fresh east to southeast breezes continuing across the Keys coastal waters.
Temperatures will be slightly cooler Sunday as a weak trough moves by the area.
1056 PM EDT Sat Jul 20 2024 Quiet, dry weather is expected for a large portion of the region under high pressure through Sunday.
(The rest of tonight) A mid-upper level low was evident on water vapor imagery this evening, centered over Iowa as of writing. This feature and the associated trough axis will continue to sag southward while a mid level vort max within the flow moves into the region tonight. (Tonight through Saturday) Shower/thunderstorm chances will be on the increase tonight into Sunday morning as a stronger disturbance rotates around base of mid level trough with a semi-favorable upper jet couplet developing.
- Backdoor cold front moving south across the area this afternoon has brought scattered showers and thunderstorms.
620 PM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024 - Temperatures will trend warmer each day through the weekend; however, they will remain below normal for the next 7 days.
637 PM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024 (This afternoon through Sunday night) A weak upper level disturbance and associated cold front, along with daytime heating are causing scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop this afternoon.
931 PM EDT Sat Jul 20 2024 High pressure extending across the lower Great Lakes will weaken on Sunday. Temps tonight will generally bottom out in the lower/mid 60s, with a few upper 50s still possible in rural/sheltered locales. Meanwhile, mid level troughing will dig ever so slowly to the east/southeast into the middle Mississippi River Valley. Highs will be similar to today, mainly in the lower to mid 80s. Some embedded s/wv energy rippling through the mean mid level trough will combine with the deeper moisture to bring at least a chance of showers and storms to the southern half of the CWFA. Lows will be in the lower to mid 60s.
The upper trough axis will also be nearly stationary from the western Great Lakes through northern TX with short waves rotating through the axis and across the SE US.
(This afternoon through Sunday) An upper-level trough axis is centered over the MS River Valley with north and central GA beneath southwesterly flow aloft. No real pattern change will take place tomorrow (Sunday) with upper-level troughing and similar PWAT values to those today.
651 PM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024 (This evening through Sunday) Western Central Texas will be wedged between a high pressure off to the west and a trough across the eastern Plains.
Expecting slightly cooler temperatures for Sunday.
642 PM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024 (Rest of today through Sunday) Dew point temperatures are already in the low 70s for most around the area this morning with air temperatures not too far ahead with values in the upper 70s. Activity will dwindle down tonight, giving way to a cloudy and muggy night with lows in the low 70s. A very deep cut off low will traverse Canada this week, resulting in a troughing pattern lingering over portions of the midwest and the Ohio Valley. Southwesterly flow embedded within this trough will help to continuously stream in small disturbances through the week.
600 PM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024 - Cooler than normal temperatures continue through the new week.
721 PM EDT Sat Jul 20 2024 High pressure extending across the lower Great Lakes will weaken on Sunday. It will be a little warmer with lows in the lower to mid 60s. Meanwhile, mid level troughing will dig ever so slowly to the east/southeast into the middle Mississippi River Valley. Highs will be similar to today, mainly in the lower to mid 80s. Some embedded s/wv energy rippling through the mean mid level trough will combine with the deeper moisture to bring at least a chance of showers and storms to the southern half of the CWFA. Lows will be in the lower to mid 60s.
733 PM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024 - Cooler than normal temperatures continue through the new week.
High temperatures will range from the low 90s along the coast to around 100 over the Rio Grande Plains with heat index values generally between 105-109 but a few locations over the southern Coastal Bend may briefly touch 110.
This boundary, along with an upper trough, separate a very moist airmass from a rather dry one.
(Today through Monday afternoon) WV imagery shows the upper ridge has amplified/narrowed as a Pacific trough approaches the west coast this morning, and is centered over the junction of CA/CA/NV, while to the east, a trough digs through the MS Valley.
1142 PM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024 (This afternoon through Sunday night) A weak upper level disturbance and associated cold front, along with daytime heating are causing scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop this afternoon.
Cooler and drier air will filter in on northwest flow behind the front this evening and overnight, allowing temperatures fall to lows in the upper 40s to low 50s in high terrain and mid 50s to low 60s at lower elevations. However, the cold front will start lifting back north as a warm front and a few showers are possible by late Monday into Monday night, along with increasing clouds.
418 AM EDT Sun Jul 21 2024 Weakening high pressure will remain across the region for one more day. An inverted trough across Kentucky may sharpen a bit as a weak disturbance moves across the region. Lows tonight will be in the lower to mid 60s with highs on Monday generally in the lower 80s.
(Today through Monday) The mid-level ridge will remained anchored over the Great Basin region, as a 500mb trough continues to move over the Central U.
(Today through Monday) A rather persisting synoptic pattern remains across the region with a long surface frontal boundary stretching across most of the SE CONUS and weak high pressure lingering over the W Atlantic.
1218 AM CDT Sun Jul 21 2024 (The rest of tonight) A mid-upper level low was evident on water vapor imagery this evening, centered over Iowa as of writing. This feature and the associated trough axis will continue to sag southward while a mid level vort max within the flow moves into the region tonight.
315 AM EDT Sun Jul 21 2024 A cold front will exit the region today. High pressure will build over the area Sunday night into Monday.