Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Furthermore, an expansive cirrus shield remains across a large chunk of the eastern CONUS in response to the slow moving upper low. These warm temperatures will continue into Monday before a cold front sweeps across the area as a northern stream upper level trough progresses across the northern Plains.
400 AM EDT Sun Sep 29 2024 A large area of low pressure will slowly track east and weaken during the early part of the week keeping unsettled conditions across the region. Showers will continue to rotate around this low and track across the forecast area today. Lows will be back in the lower to mid 60s with highs getting into the mid 70s.
413 AM EDT Sun Sep 29 2024 Unseasonably warm weather and low rain chances persist early this week as the region remains under the influence of weak high pressure. More seasonable conditions return mid to late week following the passage of a dry cold front. SW to NE oriented mid to upper trough to the west with weakening remnant low from Helene will drift eastward as ridge holds in the vicinity of the Bahamas. Upr-level closed low starting to open up and associated weak sfc reflection will approach from the west this period, leading to isolated to widely scattered showers both days, especially over northern areas where moisture profiles are more favorable. VFR should return through the weekend under high pressure.
Satellite tonight remains relatively clear under this high pressure system over our area. Near critical fire weather will be a concerns for the low RH and wind potential.
544 AM CDT Sun Sep 29 2024 (Today through Monday) In the short term, conditions remain relatively uneventful as a broad area of high pressure aloft will maintain dry air and clear skies.
623 AM CDT Sun Sep 29 2024 (Today through Monday) Center of upper low circulation was over central Kentucky this morning, with an axis extending from Pennsylvania to the Arkansas- Louisiana border. Ridge axis extended from the Four Corners region to Minnesota. While the axis of the upper trough doesn't really change much over the next 36 hours, the center of the circulation begins to lift out to the northeast.
An upper trough will swing north of the area today and bring cooler afternoon temperatures and gusty breezes in the afternoon and early evening hours for the interior westside valleys and east of the Cascades.
We will probably see some increasing coverage this afternoon as the closed upper low moves across SE KY/SW VA, but precip should remain light with scattered to numerous shower coverage.
1035 AM EDT Sun Sep 29 2024 A large area of low pressure will slowly track east and weaken during the early part of the week keeping unsettled conditions across the region. Showers will continue to rotate around this low and track across the forecast area today. Lows will be back in the lower to mid 60s with highs getting into the mid 70s.
620 AM EDT Sun Sep 29 2024 Unseasonably warm weather and low rain chances persist early this week as the region remains under the influence of weak high pressure. More seasonable conditions return mid to late week following the passage of a dry cold front. SW to NE oriented mid to upper trough to the west with weakening remnant low from Helene will drift eastward as ridge holds in the vicinity of the Bahamas. Upr-level closed low starting to open up and associated weak sfc reflection will approach from the west this period, leading to isolated to widely scattered showers both days, especially over northern areas where moisture profiles are more favorable. VFR should return through the weekend under high pressure.
710 AM EDT Sun Sep 29 2024 (Today through Monday) The remnants of Helene linger around the Tennessee River valley as high pressure tries to build in over Florida from the Atlantic. Rain chances will fall below climatological norms and the lower humidity will help drop heat index values a few degrees but not enough to make up for the southerly flow and abundant sunshine bringing 105 to 110 degree values across much of the area. The northern extent of the trough may not reach far enough north to introduce additional tropical moisture to the region.
Dry and unseasonably warm weather continues today as the high pressure system moves further east. Starting Monday, wind patterns shift to a more northerly direction which will push cooler air down into northern Nevada. Today through Monday Today, the warmer temperatures continue as winds keep pushing the warm temperatures from the south into Nevada, leaving high temperatures in the upper 80s and 90s. The northerly winds will start to bring in cooler air, making overnight lows for northern Nevada drop into the upper 30s to 40s while central Nevada remains in the 50s. Monday, winds expected to be light but still be predominant from the north, keeping the cooler air for northern Nevada.
621 AM CDT Sun Sep 29 2024 (Today and tonight) The synoptic pattern continues to remain rather stagnant with broad upper troughing over the eastern CONUS and a gradually flattening upper ridge over the Four Corners region. Light winds and clear skies will continue today as surface ridging persists and a dry airmass lingers overhead.
Utah and southwest Wyoming will see another day of near record high temperatures under the influence of high pressure. A weak and dry cold front will cross northern Utah and southwest Wyoming tonight into Monday, bringing some relief from the hot temperatures.
957 AM EDT Sun Sep 29 2024 A broad area of low pressure will persist over the Southeast U. A dry cold front is then expected to push through the region mid-week, with cooler high pressure building in from the west thereafter. Today: Aloft, the forecast area will continue to be situated within the southwest flow between the large upper low south of the Great Lakes and the ridge situated over the southwest Atlantic. At the surface, the circulation is more anticyclonic in nature around the west and northwest side of high pressure between Bermuda and the Bahamas. Lows should mostly fall into the upper 60s inland and the low 70s along the coast.
-Stalley Previous Discussion: /Through Monday/ Deep northerly flow prevails through the column as we remain situated beneath an amplified western CONUS ridge axis and a deep upper low (and the now-absorbed Helene) to our east. Ridging centered to the west will continue to promote subsidence for North and Central Texas and be the dominant player in our sensible weather.
Mesoscale models show a strong area of vertical motion between 925 mb and 850 mb corresponding with the trough axis mentioned earlier moving southeast this morning into the afternoon hours. Precipitation chances should become more isolated to scattered in northwestern Alabama later this afternoon, but should remain high until then as the trough axis moves southeast. Further east though, highs look to be a bit cooler than originally thought, only reaching the mid 60s to lower 70s.
Satellite tonight remains relatively clear under this high pressure system over our area. Near critical fire weather will be a concern due to the low RH and wind potential.
1001 AM EDT Sun Sep 29 2024 Unseasonably warm weather and low rain chances persist early this week as the region remains under the influence of weak high pressure. More seasonable conditions return mid to late week following the passage of a dry cold front. SW to NE oriented mid to upper trough to the west with weakening remnant low from Helene will drift eastward as ridge holds in the vicinity of the Bahamas. Upr-level closed low starting to open up and associated weak sfc reflection will approach from the west this period, leading to isolated to widely scattered showers both days, especially over northern areas where moisture profiles are more favorable. VFR should return through the weekend under high pressure.
546 AM CDT Sun Sep 29 2024 - A cut-off upper low over the Ohio River Valley will continue to bring clouds and a few showers to parts of central Illinois today.
651 AM EDT Sun Sep 29 2024 A large area of low pressure will slowly track east and weaken during the early part of the week keeping unsettled conditions across the region. Showers will continue to rotate around this low and track across the forecast area today. Lows will be back in the lower to mid 60s with highs getting into the mid 70s.
606 AM CDT Sun Sep 29 2024 Upper level low pressure will result in cooler than normal temperatures and scattered light afternoon showers through Monday.
720 AM EDT Sun Sep 29 2024 A broad area of low pressure will persist over the Southeast U. A dry cold front is then expected to push through the region mid-week, with cooler high pressure building in from the west thereafter. Today: Aloft, the forecast area will continue to be situated within the southwest flow between the large upper low south of the Great Lakes and the ridge situated over the southwest Atlantic. Lows should mostly fall into the upper 60s inland and the low 70s along the coast.
High winds will also be a factor in the next few days as high pressure sets in. High temperatures are expected to run another few degrees cooler today as a weak trough swings through the region. High pressure is expected to build into the Pacific Northwest and Northern California downstream of the trough. Breezy conditions with gusty north to Northwest winds will develop along the North Coast with northeast winds over the high terrain of Del Norte county late this afternoon and evening where gusts up to 40 mph are likely.
/Issued 1245 AM CDT Sun Sep 29 2024/ /Through Monday/ Deep northerly flow prevails through the column as we remain situated beneath an amplified western CONUS ridge axis and a deep upper low (and the now-absorbed Helene) to our east. Ridging centered to the west will continue to promote subsidence for North and Central Texas and be the dominant player in our sensible weather.
A deep mean-layer ridge complex is centered near the Bahamas. This places the low-level ridge axis near the Florida Keys.
Hot and muggy today, with afternoon highs in the low 90s. Overnight lows will be in the low to mid 70s.
550 AM CDT Sun Sep 29 2024 (Today through Monday) An upper level trough centered over the Ohio Valley, an upper level ridge centered over the Four Corners, and surface ridging extending from the Plains into Central Texas persist. The only clouds would be some cirrus off to our northeast due to remnant moisture of Helene within the upper level trough.
(Rest of today through Monday) Low pressure and remnant moisture still hangs over Middle Tennessee and surrounding areas today. Once again we may have a few showers in the afternoon before the low pressure center finally crawls away to the northeast.
- Cold front brings cooler temperatures for mid week, but with little chance for rain. The inversion will allow for efficient diurnal cooling overnight, so expect lows in the lower 50s inland from the lake. With high pressure overhead Monday, winds will be slow to decouple, but expect winds to gradually increase out of the southeast during the afternoon. Return flow around the high will allow for warm temperatures creeping into the lower 80s for areas well inland from Lake Michigan.
/Issued 1118 AM CDT Sun Sep 29 2024/ /This Afternoon through Monday/ Warm and dry weather will continue as we end the weekend and start the new work week, with North and Central Texas remaining between a ridge to the west and a low pressure system across the eastern states. Scattered to broken high clouds on the back side of the low to the east may hold high temps down a degree or two this afternoon but it will still be warm with highs ranging from the middle 80s to the around 90. The region will lose most of the high clouds tonight, allowing temperatures to fall mainly into the lower and middle 60s. Full sun on Monday will push afternoon highs into the upper 80s to the lower 90s.
(This afternoon through Monday night) WV imagery shows the upper ridge centered over northeast Arizona this afternoon, resulting in meridional or even northeast flow aloft this afternoon over West Texas and Southeast New Mexico. As such, the short term continues to remain dry, but with mild temperatures due to the displaced nature of the ridge. Monday, the west coast trough will nudging the ridge a little farther east, increasing thicknesses over the region and adding a couple of degrees to today's highs.
High pressure remains in place across the area today leading to another round of abnormally warm temperatures. High pressure will remain in control over the state, with well above normal temperatures.
High pressure in place across northern Arizona will lead to a continuation of abnormally warm temperatures through the week.
326 PM EDT Sun Sep 29 2024 High pressure builds back into the area overnight and into Monday.
This trough axis has been slowly pushing southeast and currently extends from near Bridgeport, AL west-southwest through Huntsville, AL and into the Muscle Shoals, AL area.
258 PM EDT Sun Sep 29 2024 An upper level low will propagate eastward the next several days, bringing occasional showers and possible thunderstorms. A cold front will move through midweek with high pressure building thereafter.
Dry and unseasonably warm weather to finish the weekend before winds shift to the north tonight as a weak cold front moves south into the area. This shift will bring cooler air into northern Nevada starting Monday. Sunday night a weak cold front passes through, shifting the winds northerly and bringing cooler air. Winds will remain light and northerly on Monday as the front stalls and dissipates over central Nevada, keeping northern Nevada cooler with highs mainly in the 70s while central Nevada will be in the 80s to low 90s.
(The rest of today ) A cut off upper low to the east and upper ridging that extends from the desert southwest through the central plains will result in a delightful early fall afternoon with temperatures well above seasonal averages.
Expect overnight lows to dip into the low-mid 60s.
1227 PM CDT Sun Sep 29 2024 (Rest of today through Monday) Low pressure and remnant moisture still hangs over Middle Tennessee and surrounding areas today. Once again we may have a few showers in the afternoon before the low pressure center finally crawls away to the northeast.
The winds are due to an upper level trough sweeping north of the area across Canada which has tightened the pressure gradient over the region. The trough will push a dry cold front through the region later this evening which will cool things off for the overnight and more so during the day tomorrow.
(This evening through Monday) Surface ridging is set to depart east of the region this evening ahead of light southerly winds veering westerly by daybreak. These light downslope breezes along with height rises east of a sprawling high over the Four Corners will shove highs into the lower 90s area wide for the final day of September.
134 PM EDT Sun Sep 29 2024 A broad area of low pressure will persist over the Southeast U. A dry cold front is then expected to push through the region mid-week, with cooler high pressure building in from the west thereafter. This afternoon: Aloft, the forecast area will continue to be situated within the southwest flow between the large upper low south of the Great Lakes and the ridge situated over the southwest Atlantic. At the surface, the circulation is more anticyclonic in nature around the west and northwest side of high pressure between Bermuda and the Bahamas. Lows should mostly fall into the upper 60s inland and the low 70s along the coast.
NHC is monitoring the western Caribbean for possible tropical cyclone development and is indicating a medium (50%) chance of development in the next 7 days. (This evening through Monday night) Upper low over the Appalachians should open up and begin to lift northeastward Monday, but the overall trough axis remains pretty anchored through the short term resulting in a little change to the local weather.
Afternoon satellite imagery shows the remnant circulation of Helene along with a large upper level low spinning across the southern Ohio Valley. Overnight lows will average in the upper 50s to the lower 60s. Highs on the day should be a bit warmer with most places in the 70-75 degree range.
Further aloft, the pattern is expected to become even more diffuse with the strong closed low over the TN/OH Valley moving further NE. Highs tomorrow should warm into the lower and mid 90s.
1140 AM CDT Sun Sep 29 2024 (The rest of today ) A cut off upper low to the east and upper ridging that extends from the desert southwest through the central plains will result in a delightful early fall afternoon with temperatures well above seasonal averages.
230 PM EDT Sun Sep 29 2024 Fair weather continues through the start of the work week as high pressure remains over the Canadian Maritimes.
This front will also bring breezy north to northeast winds late this afternoon into Monday morning, with strongest winds along mountain ridgelines as well as areas near the Oregon border.
- Winds Monday 15 to 25 MPH and gusting as high as 35 MPH from the north will be possible behind the passage of a cold front moving from the NW to SE between 11AM and 7PM.
Some decreasing cloud cover Monday will bring warmer temperatures in the 70s. Discussion: The slow-moving closed low continues to affect our area through tonight, but it will be departing the region by the end of this period. Isolated light rain showers may persist through the night underneath the low, then increasing coverage is expected once again after sunrise Monday. As the upper low moves into WV/western VA, we should see some reduction in cloud cover tomorrow, allowing temperatures to rise well into the 70s in most spots outside the mountains.
(Rest of today through Monday) The remnants of Helene linger around the Tennessee River valley as high pressure tries to build in over Florida from the Atlantic. Rain chances will fall below climatological norms and the lower humidity will help drop heat index values a few degrees but not enough to make up for the southerly flow and abundant sunshine bringing 105 to 110 degree values across much of the area. The northern extent of the trough may not reach far enough north to introduce additional tropical moisture to the region.
1046 AM CDT Sun Sep 29 2024 - A cut-off upper low over the Ohio River Valley will continue to bring clouds and a few showers to parts of central Illinois today.
1216 PM CDT Sun Sep 29 2024 Upper level low pressure will result in cooler than normal temperatures and scattered light afternoon showers through Monday.
- A cold front this evening will bring cooler conditions with gusty northwest winds into Monday.
(This evening through Monday) Expect quiet and dry weather the next 24 hours as upper level ridging dominates.
1153 AM CDT Sun Sep 29 2024 (Today and tonight) The synoptic pattern continues to remain rather stagnant with broad upper troughing over the eastern CONUS and a gradually flattening upper ridge over the Four Corners region. Light winds and clear skies will continue today as surface ridging persists and a dry airmass lingers overhead.
(Tonight through Monday night) An elongated upper-level trough extending from the Ohio River Valley into Southern Texas looks to shift further east through the period. Weak upper-level ridging looks to build int Southern Texas by Monday afternoon. This pattern will continue to support fair weather across the region, with overnight low temperatures in the upper 60 to low 70s and afternoon high temperatures in the low to mid 90s at the surface, dry air looks to remain in place through the period, keeping heat indices close to the actual temperature.
Temperatures are currently in the middle 80s to lower 90s and highs later today will be in the lower to upper 90s across the area. This overall pattern will continue for the short-term as weak troughing remains well to our east. Low temperatures tonight will be back in the 50s and 60s with the cooler values expected in the Hill Country.
1241 PM CDT Sun Sep 29 2024 (Today through Monday) An upper level trough centered over the Ohio Valley, an upper level ridge centered over the Four Corners, and surface ridging extending from the Plains into Central Texas persist. The only clouds would be some cirrus off to our northeast due to remnant moisture of Helene within the upper level trough.
High pressure centered overtop the region will bring about mostly calm winds.
142 PM MDT Sun Sep 29 2024 A Pacific cold front will continue to move from west to east through Central MT this evening. Cooler air will move in behind the cold front, with gusty winds diminishing by Monday morning. Afternoon highs on Monday will be about 25 degrees cooler than today.
332 PM EDT Sun Sep 29 2024 - Dry weather is expected through Monday, but rain chances return Monday night when the next cold front enters the Great Lakes region.
1232 PM CDT Sun Sep 29 2024 (Today through Monday) Center of upper low circulation was over central Kentucky this morning, with an axis extending from Pennsylvania to the Arkansas- Louisiana border. Ridge axis extended from the Four Corners region to Minnesota. While the axis of the upper trough doesn't really change much over the next 36 hours, the center of the circulation begins to lift out to the northeast.
Temperatures along the Island Chain are near 90 degrees with some locations in the lower 90s. Due to this, the western portions of the area, namely the Lower Keys and surrounding nearshore and offshore waters have the best chance of seeing any activity during this time frame.
Min RH values will remain in the teens at lower elevations and in the low to mid 20s for higher elevations.
209 PM EDT Sun Sep 29 2024 A large area of low pressure will slowly track east and weaken during the early part of the week keeping unsettled conditions across the region. Showers will continue to rotate around this low and track across the forecast area today. Lows will be back in the lower to mid 60s with highs getting into the mid 70s.
1247 PM CDT Sun Sep 29 2024 - A cut-off upper low over the Ohio River Valley will continue to bring clouds and a few showers to parts of central Illinois today.
Incoming cold front was near the WA/ID border at 8 AM MDT, shifting east.
High pressure will slowly ease its grip by the end of the week, with a subtle decrease in temperatures.
(This evening through Monday) Expect quiet and dry weather the next 24 hours as upper level ridging dominates. Upper level trough and the remnants of Helene remain off to the east, with a ridge of high pressure aloft continues from California east into Texas.
Cloudy, drizzly, and cool conditions will continue on Monday as an upper level low pressure system slowly pulls away.
Patchy fog should extend into far eastern Oklahoma, as well as in the Arkansas River Valley, but the highest confidence in quarter mile visibilities is in southern Benton, southern Carroll, Washington and Madison counties, where a Dense Fog Advisory has been issued from 4 am to 9 am.
The upper trough. which brought us cooler weather today. temperatures are generally between 5 and 20 degrees cooler compared to 24 hours ago. where temperatures are similar to a few degrees warmer. yesterday at this time they were running 16 degrees cooler compared to the previous day. where now they are running 23 degrees warmer compared to 24 hours ago. A roller coaster of temperatures! This will be the last near to slightly below normal temperature day for the foreseeable future as an upper level ridge of high pressure over the eastern Pacific nudges east over the area. Ridging remains in place.
A subtle trough will exit western Washington tonight as upper level ridging starts the week dry.