Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
(Tonight through Friday night) Key Messages: - Scattered thunderstorms Friday afternoon into Friday night - Marginal to Slight Risk for Excessive rainfall Friday Low pressure near the Rio Grande Plains in Mexico is helping to drive our breezy weather.
Low stratus and breezy/windy northerly winds continue over much of the forecast area this afternoon due to cooler air flowing into the region behind a weak cold front this morning. Latest analysis shows an upper trough over the forecast area this afternoon, extending SW to the upper low, currently over southern California. At the surface, a region of high pressure is centered over ern MT/wrn ND extending in a narrow band southward across eastern WY/CO. West to southwest winds will develop Friday morning at 10 to 15 kt, but it looks blocking by the Black Hills will keep the KRAP wind direction variable through the day.
The cold front/dryline surface boundary has moved through the OKC area and just east of the H. The cold front may not make it through our southeast CWA until midnight when the severe risk shifts east and entirely out of our southeastern counties. A cut-off low system stalled over the Southwestern U. The remainder of our area should stay dry although cooler and cloudy with northeast winds as temperatures return to more seasonably average. Did go slightly cooler than NBM with Fridays MaxT using the CONSMOS guidance.
736 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024 Strong to severe thunderstorms and heavy rainfall are expected to occur later tonight into Friday as a slow moving cold front crosses the area.
A strong low pressure system will bring gusty northerly winds to the forecast area through Friday morning.
The overall chances of showers/storms will end overnight as a cold front currently working across northeast Oklahoma sweeps through the area. Cooler, but still near average temperatures for this time of year are expected for tomorrow behind the frontal passage, with gusty northerly winds throughout the day dying off somewhat by sunset.
624 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024 (This afternoon through Friday night) Surface analysis shows the cold front in the South Plains this afternoon, set to speed up and move through the area after peak heating. A stratus deck should develop along/behind the front overnight, w/showers developing along the front after 06Z, and increasing through Friday along/behind the front, which by that time will entail all the lowlands.
(This afternoon through Friday) A potent mid level system is progged to move through the CWA tomorrow, ahead of a surface cold front. Concerned that additional convection could fire in the southern half of the CWA during the mid to late afternoon, ahead of the cold front or on any leftover morning mesoscale boundary.
RW (This afternoon through Friday) A potent mid level system is progged to move through the CWA tomorrow, ahead of a surface cold front. Concerned that additional convection could fire in the southern half of the CWA during the mid to late afternoon, ahead of the cold front or on any leftover morning mesoscale boundary.
652 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024 (Tonight through Friday night) Key Messages: - Scattered thunderstorms Friday afternoon into Friday night - Marginal to Slight Risk for Excessive rainfall Friday Low pressure near the Rio Grande Plains in Mexico is helping to drive our breezy weather.
137 AM MDT Fri Mar 15 2024 Overview: A dry pattern for the area with upper high pressure building in from the west. As the upper high amplifies into southwest British Columbia, northwest flow will increase over North Dakota and far eastern Montana. This will increase winds over the east today, and bring a backdoor cold front into the eastern half of the forecast area tonight for cooler weather on Saturday. The backdoor cold front mentioned in the paragraph above, will keep highs in the 40s over the far east on Saturday, with 50s over western, central and western sections of the eastern zones (as far east as Miles City to Broadus). Humidity: Minimum humidity will fall into the lower to mid 20s over most of the central and eastern zones, with some teens in spots (especially near the Dakotas border).
At the surface, cold front extends from Southern MO into Central TX.
A 60 percent chance of gusts 45-50 mph in northeast North Dakota in the higher terrain along west edge of the Red River valley. Low pressure is seen in northern Saskatchewan from observations at 08z and 500 mb low is seen on water vapor in same area.
High pressure centered over western NE will build into the area today. Cooler will also slide into the area as largescale NW flow brings CAA to us. While we look to have good sun today, cooler temps aloft means that highs today will be cooler than the last few days. This will bring a cold front into the area near daybreak.
(Today and tonight) The current area of showers across north central and northeast Texas is expected to start shifting south early this morning as the cold front pushes south. With the front having moved through the forecast area, today's highs will be cooler than yesterday.
asctd w/ advancing Great Plains high pressure, wl be moving thru the FA, aiding to cutoff precip usher in drier condns w/ breezy Nrly winds and slightly cooler daytime condns following.
Upper level ridging will replace the departing low pressure system for dry conditions and moderating temperatures heading into the weekend. Things really slow down this evening as diurnal heating wanes and the responsible trough and associated cold pool move off to the east. Upper level ridging will then move in and replace the departing system, but there will still be some weak perturbations that will move through the region and maintain passing clouds through Saturday, but little to no precipitation is expected.
330 AM EDT Fri Mar 15 2024 * Scattered to numerous light rain showers today as a cold front crosses he region.
1220 AM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024 - Widespread high or even moderate impact weather not expected through the entire 7 day period, including Fire Weather thanks to periodic weak, dry cold front passages in the northwest flow pattern. - In the far extended, we will be monitoring a potential significant pattern change toward colder temperatures (beginning around 21 or 22 March?) A major mid-tropospheric cyclone continued to spin over the Southwest CONUS with the 500mb low center near Las Vegas, NV. The dominant branch of the westerlies will be rather amplified with deep troughing across the eastern CONUS and ridging across the Northwest.
(Today through Saturday night) In the upper levels, there was a cutoff low moving southwest near SAN, a high was just off of the Washington coast and there was a broad ridge over the eastern third of the U. A southwest flow remained over the Panhandles on the eastern side of the broad trough that held the Southern California low.
At this time there are no warnings and the highest measured convective gusts I can find is 43 kts and 41 kts (both in MS).
- Cooler temperatures settle in for the weekend. These storms are forming a head of a cold front that has been slowly working its way through the area during the day. The weather pattern calms and cools going into the end of the week as surface ridging progresses into the area. Temperatures rebound Saturday as being on the western side of the ridge returns southerly flow advecting warmer air into the area lifting highs toward the upper 60s.
1235 AM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024 (This evening through Friday) Start of the wetter and cooler period begins to tonight and continues into Friday. Meanwhile, cold front has sagged to an Abilene to Big Lake line. Latest CAMs suggest convection this afternoon may be limited to just east of the CWA, although they do show at least some scattered convection developing a little farther to the west this evening as the dryline begins to retreat and the low level moisture return reaches the cold front. After the 80s this afternoon, much cooler tonight and Friday as north winds become gusty.
(Today and tonight) Surface observations show the cold front continuing to push well south of our forecast area with gusty northwest winds expected overnight and for much of the day tomorrow before winds begin to subside in speed tonight. Thick overcast and persistent northwest winds will lead to much cooler temperatures today with highs in the 40s and 50s.
Thus, widespread wind gusts in excess of 30 mph are likely (>80% chance) Friday night and Saturday, with localized gusts in excess of 40 mph for the higher terrain areas of the Iron Range, North Shore and Bayfield Peninsula.
A cold front will descend south late this morning, afternoon shower potential will likely stay south of I-70. KEY MESSAGES: - Shower and isolated thunderstorm chances will be generally located south of Pittsburgh today before a cold front advances slowly south of Lake Erie. - Temperatures will cooler than yesterday with the passing warm front. With slow progression of the cold front just off of Lake Erie, showers will continue to linger through this afternoon. Precipitation will be exit the region between 6pm and 9pm as the cold front dives south. Temperatures throughout the day likely fall opposed to rise despite surface heating as the cold front advances. - Shower chances return with a Saturday night cold front ------------------------------------------------------------------- The Upper Ohio River Valley will experience dry weather Saturday under weak ridging.
1233 AM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024 Strong to severe thunderstorms and heavy rainfall are expected to occur later tonight into Friday as a slow moving cold front crosses the area.
- Cold front will shift winds to northwest tonight, with wind gusts of 30 to 40 mph. high pressure will drift south while low pressure deepens across the Western Lakes region. That puts us in westerly low level flow, which will result in efficient mixing and dry fetch off the higher terrain to the west. Similar uncertainty exists with respect to dewpoints, which CAMS show from the low range of single digits to upper teens in the central portion of the CWA, and teens to low 20 degree range in the eastern CWA. Pressure falls of 10mb/6 hours this evening are reversed with the passage of a cold front tonight. That mid level pattern consisting of a block over the western CONUS, and a deep trof over the eastern half of the CONUS.
All severe hazards will be possible, including destructive hail of 2 inches or greater and tornadoes, with the highest hail threat tied to more discrete cells/clusters this afternoon/evening. Flash flooding will also be a concern given the highly anomalous tropospheric moisture in place. Storms should begin pushing SE of the area thru Fri morning as consolidated outflows move SEwrd, but some lingering stratiform rain will remain until later in the day when the synoptic cold front pushes thru with drier air in its wake.
118 AM EDT Fri Mar 15 2024 High pressure will prevail through tonight.
Warmer air move into the area and gusty west winds will develop during the day today with tightening surface gradient. A backdoor dry cold front moves through the area tonight and will cool temperatures somewhat for Saturday. High pressure and northerly flow aloft will bring mainly dry weather over the weekend.
425 AM EDT Fri Mar 15 2024 High pressure will continue to ridge across the area from the Atlantic, with a light SE flow turning onshore in the afternoon with the sea breeze. A cold front will stall just to the north of the area tonight, turning local winds to the SW/W for the weekend.
1104 PM MDT Thu Mar 14 2024 - Accumulating snow will continue for both the higher and lower terrain, along and west of the I-25 corridor through Friday afternoon.
- A cold front brings showers and thunderstorms to the area through this afternoon, lingering into the early evening in the southeast.
1239 AM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024 (This afternoon through Friday night) Surface analysis shows the cold front in the South Plains this afternoon, set to speed up and move through the area after peak heating. A stratus deck should develop along/behind the front overnight, w/showers developing along the front after 06Z, and increasing through Friday along/behind the front, which by that time will entail all the lowlands.
1230 AM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024 - A modified cold front gradually pushes through the area into this evening and overnight with dry air moving in. Across the CONUS, a broad low amplitude ridge is in place from the Mid Atlantic and southeastern CONUS into the lower MS Valley. A deep trough remains over the southwestern CONUS and forecast to become a cutoff low. Across the forecast area, a modified cold front is very slow to progress through the area with a prefrontal trough just exiting to the southeast in advance of the trailing cold front. Most likely a deck of low level stratus will continue to build within the cooler air especially into this evening and last through part of the overnight or possibly early tomorrow morning.
211 AM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024 - Rain showers mainly across southeast Missouri and western Kentucky will diminish later this morning as a cold front moves south across the region.
This afternoon will feature temperatures in the low-to-mid 70s across the interior with mid-to-upper 60s at the coast.
High pressure will dip south through the day Friday as a clipper system dives southeast from central Canada, down to the northern Great Lakes region, and to southeastern Canada. This will bring a fairly strong cold frontal boundary through the forecast area starting later in the day.
The overall chances of showers/storms will end overnight as a cold front currently working across northeast Oklahoma sweeps through the area.
(Today through Saturday) A rather strong mid level ridge will remain parked over the region for today and into the first part of the weekend. At the surface, a large area of high pressure will continue to slowly push eastward in the Atlantic. Highs today will climb into the lower 80s across the east coast metro areas and into the upper 80s across interior portions of Southwest Florida.
- A cold front will sweep across the area Friday night and early Saturday morning. A line of thunderstorms presently extends from S OH to W TN and NE TX ahead of a cold front. A cold front will sweep through the area from the NW Friday night and early Saturday morning, which will bring a temporary end to the rainfall.
1145 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024 - Much cooler weather after a cold frontal passage late Saturday afternoon and Saturday evening.
(Rest of tonight) Strong-severe thunderstorms developed late this afternoon/early this evening across northern MS/southwestern TN, in the vicinity of a diffuse NNW-SSE oriented warm front separating dewpoints in the m-u 50s (northeast AL) and l-m 60s (northwest AL). With the passage of the aforementioned storm system, cooler temperatures are expected.
The higher amounts of rain falling in areas that have received good dose earlier could have ponding of water and a small risk for flash flooding.
An strong upper level ridge continues to expand off the Pacific NW coast into SE AK and western BC. A trough remains over southern NV and UT keeping breezy east-northeast conditions going, mainly south of a line from Burns OR to Sun Valley ID.
Meanwhile, convection has begun to increase across NE TX into SW AR well ahead of a cold front that extended farther NW from the N side of DFW into extreme SE OK and Wrn/Cntrl AR.
1150 PM MDT Thu Mar 14 2024 1) Light to moderate snowfall accumulations will be likely across the lower elevations along and east of the Laramie Range, with the higher totals occurring over the mountains. With temperatures below freezing this may create some hazardous conditions Friday night. By Saturday, southeast Wyoming and western Nebraska come under the influence of the high pressure side of a Rex Block. This pattern will bring warmer temperatures with highs near 5 degrees above- average.
A warming trend is in store through the weekend as high pressure builds into the area. NV will be located on the northern periphery of a closed low that is undercutting a large high pressure over the Pacific NW. The closed low is currently over far southern CA, and the low will move east and weaken over AZ tomorrow. Today will be around 5 degrees warmer than yesterday with highs in the 40s to mid 50s, but these temperatures are still below seasonal average due to the cool air mass associated with the ENE flow aloft.
657 AM EDT Fri Mar 15 2024 * Scattered to numerous light rain showers today as a cold front crosses the region.
610 AM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024 (Today and tonight) Surface observations show the cold front continuing to push well south of our forecast area with gusty northwest winds expected overnight and for much of the day tomorrow before winds begin to subside in speed tonight. Thick overcast and persistent northwest winds will lead to much cooler temperatures today with highs in the 40s and 50s.
615 AM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024 (Today through Saturday night) In the upper levels, there was a cutoff low moving southwest near SAN, a high was just off of the Washington coast and there was a broad ridge over the eastern third of the U. A southwest flow remained over the Panhandles on the eastern side of the broad trough that held the Southern California low.
618 AM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024 -Temperature fluctuations are expected this forecast period with a few quick moving cold fronts impacting the region. Aloft, an H7 trough is moving over the central US and a large cutoff low remains over southern CA. Temperatures should top out about five degrees above mid-March averages today, in the low to mid 60s. A digging H5 trough over south-central Canada will advance through the Great Lakes region tomorrow, shunting a cold front through northeast KS during the afternoon. Post-frontal cold air advection will create a few cooler days as we wrap up the weekend and begin the next workweek.
With high pressure centered overhead, temperatures will approach 90 degrees for locations away from the coast.
534 AM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024 - Rain showers mainly across southeast Missouri and western Kentucky will diminish later this morning as a cold front moves south across the region.
High pressure will continue to ridge across the area from the Atlantic, with a light SE flow turning onshore in the afternoon with the sea breeze. A cold front will stall just to the north of the area tonight, turning local winds to the SW/W for the weekend.
442 AM PDT Fri Mar 15 2024 An upper level low pressure system will slowly eastward into Arizona over the weekend.
403 AM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024 -Temperature fluctuations are expected this forecast period with a few quick moving cold fronts impacting the region. Aloft, an H7 trough is moving over the central US and a large cutoff low remains over southern CA. A digging H5 trough over south-central Canada will advance over the Great Lakes region tomorrow, shunting a cold front through northeast KS during the afternoon. Post- frontal cold air advection will create a few cooler days as we wrap up the weekend and begin the next workweek.
Gusty winds continue to impact the area, strongest over the higher terrain of the Sierra. As the winds subside by Saturday morning, the forecast turns to quiet, warm weather as ridging in the Pacific NW begins to dominate the forecast pattern.
604 AM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024 (Today and tonight) Early this morning, a cold front continues to push south across far southern portions of he area and will exit the I-10 corridor before daybreak. Temperatures will be considerably cooler today, with highs ranging from the upper 50s and lower 60s across the Big Country, to the mid and upper 60s along the I-10 corridor. Temperatures will be cooler tonight, with overnight lows mainly in the upper 40s and lower 50s.
932 AM EDT Fri Mar 15 2024 Scattered showers will continue today as a cold front drops southward. KEY MESSAGES: - Shower activity will continue along an advancing cold front today. ------------------------------------------------------------------- Cold front is currently bisecting the region as noted in the wind shift from DUJ-AGC-ZZV. - Shower chances return with a Saturday night cold front ------------------------------------------------------------------- The Upper Ohio River Valley will experience dry weather Saturday under weak ridging.
(Today and tonight) Early this morning, a cold front continues to push south across far southern portions of he area and will exit the I-10 corridor before daybreak. Temperatures will be considerably cooler today, with highs ranging from the upper 50s and lower 60s across the Big Country, to the mid and upper 60s along the I-10 corridor. Temperatures will be cooler tonight, with overnight lows mainly in the upper 40s and lower 50s.
Winds across the Reef are currently 15 to 20 knots but as the day goes on those will start to trend downward, due to a high pressure sliding eastward into the Atlantic.
A cold front will track south late this morning. KEY MESSAGES: - Shower activity will continue ahead of an advancing cold front today. - Temperatures will cooler than yesterday with the passing warm front. ------------------------------------------------------------------- Unorganized showers will continue to track through the region early this morning and into the afternoon ahead of a cold front. The cold front is currently linger south of Youngstown, OH based on sfc observations. Higher amounts will be generally focused along the ridges of West Virginia where sufficient low- lvl moisture resides. Temperatures throughout the day likely fall opposed to rise despite surface heating as the cold front advances. - Shower chances return with a Saturday night cold front ------------------------------------------------------------------- The Upper Ohio River Valley will experience dry weather Saturday under weak ridging.
648 AM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024 (Today and tonight) The current area of showers across north central and northeast Texas is expected to start shifting south early this morning as the cold front pushes south. With the front having moved through the forecast area, today's highs will be cooler than yesterday.
1213 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024 (Today and tonight) Early this morning, a cold front continues to push south across far southern portions of he area and will exit the I-10 corridor before daybreak. Temperatures will be considerably cooler today, with highs ranging from the upper 50s and lower 60s across the Big Country, to the mid and upper 60s along the I-10 corridor. Temperatures will be cooler tonight, with overnight lows mainly in the upper 40s and lower 50s.
(This evening through Saturday) The low pressure center over the desert SW is holding strength today, and even triggering winter storm warnings in the Southern California mountains near Big Bear. The high pressure over the rockies is expected to weaken over the next 12 hours, which will cause our winds to continue to decrease through this afternoon.
Gentle to moderate east to southeast breezes are complemented by dewpoints in the lower 70s and highs in the mid to upper 80s. The low-level ridging stretching west across Florida will retreat to the east- southeast over the next few days, giving way to lower heights and westerlies carving into the Southeast US. Breezes will tend to diminish and shift to the southeast to south as the high moves deeper into the western North Atlantic.
(This evening through Saturday night) Cooler temperatures and rain showers highlight the short term forecast. Cooler temperatures will remain across the Panhandles this afternoon along with scattered rain showers. A H500 low pressure system will remain fairly stationary near the southern tip of Nevada tonight through Saturday night.
327 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024 - A cold front will bring very strong winds to the Northland tonight into Saturday. - With this cold front a chance for rain and snow showers for much of the Northland tonight into Saturday, with a 40-60 percent chance of a tenth of an inch of precipitation along the international border, but elsewhere very low (<10%) odds for more than a tenth of an inch of precipitation.