Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
609 AM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025 (Tonight through Sunday night) Upper-level ridging that has been centered over Florida is beginning to build westward into our area, bringing warming temperatures and generally suppressing convection. Sunday is expected to follow a similar pattern with the ridge still in place, but there is a subtle signal for an increase in mid-level moisture between 850 and 700 mb, particularly across the Atchafalaya Basin, where PW values could approach the climatological 90th percentile near 2. Meanwhile, areas east of Baton Rouge will likely stay more firmly under the ridge axis, keeping coverage scattered at best as drier air and subsidence dominate.
- Threat of heavy rains later today through Sunday night with the highest chances across portions of Central Texas, including the Austin metro, the Hill Country, Edwards Plateau, and Val Verde County. (Today through Sunday) Nearly seasonal average moisture levels increase to 150%+ of average as southerly flow deepens in the lower to mid levels today. At the same time, an upper level trough drifting to the east over the Plains drags a cool front south into northern and western portions of Texas. WPC has maintained marginal to slight (1 to 2 out of 4) risks of excessive rainfall for today through Sunday with the highest risks across portions of Central Texas, including the Austin metro, the Hill Country, Edwards Plateau, and Val Verde County.
Convection will diminish by mid to late evening again, but some convection could still be possible overnight hours given weak disturbances moving east-southeast across GA on the north side of a mid level ridge.
653 AM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025 Although an upper level trough will try to drop into our region from the northwest this weekend, high pressure surface and aloft to our southeast with not only hang tough but actually strengthen over our CWA. With the lower rain chances and warmer temperatures topping out in the low to mid 90s, heat stress concerns will increase in our west along the Mississippi river especially. /22/ High pressure aloft will gradually retrograde into the region throughout the forecast period.
- Mostly sunny, daytime highs in the low 80s, and low confidence in limited storm chances for Sunday.
Though, the front will settle south of I-44 today near the MO/AR border which is where the highest chance for rain will occur. The POPs really increase this afternoon to 30-70% with the higher end percentages occurring closest to the southern border. MUCAPE is also the highest over that area with values near 2500 J/kg along the front.
Temperatures across the island chain are in the lower 80s with dewpoints in the mid to upper 70s.
701 AM EDT Sat Jul 12 2025 High pressure surface and aloft will hold over the region today. The gradient remains weak with the ridge axis generally across the central Florida peninsula. Southwest Florida will be on the south side of the ridge axis with light southeast flow to start the day.
After a very active period of severe thunderstorms and major flash flooding over the last few days, mostly dry conditions are expected this weekend as drier air filters in behind a cold front that will continue to sweep through the area from the northwest. Global model guidance are in pretty good agreement with a mid-level trough skimming the area to the north this afternoon into the evening, which could provide enough lift to generate a low chance of showers (10-30%). More seasonal temperatures are expected today, with highs in the lower 80s. Dry conditions should continue through Sunday night, thanks to an area of high pressure remaining over the Corn Belt region, with highs in the lower to middle 80s Sunday.
508 AM MDT Sat Jul 12 2025 - A cooler and drier day is forecast for today with highs around 80. - Warmer temperatures in the 90s and generally dry conditions are forecast through Mon/Tues. All the precipitation should end by about sunrise as the upper trough continues to push east. For the daytime hours, a cooler and clearer day is forecast on the back side of the surface cold front and upper trough. This evening and into tonight, there is about a 20% chance that maybe a few showers or storms could graze Eastern Colorado with the usual precipitation that forms in the higher terrain.
555 AM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025 (Today through Sunday) A suppressive deep-layer ridge will present itself across the region this weekend, with a notable decrease in rain chances and an increase in temperatures.
A cold front lags behind the convection. Morning KSGF upper air sounding captured environment in behind the nighttime convection and the approaching cold front yielding a MLCAPE of nearly 1500 joules but a CIN of 75. Though, the front will settle south of I-44 today near the MO/AR border which is where the highest chance for rain will occur. The POPs really increase this afternoon to 30-70% with the higher end percentages occurring closest to the southern border. MUCAPE is also the highest over that area with values near 2500 J/kg along the front.
Afternoon temperatures will combine with the humidity to create heat indices at many locations in the lowlands in the upper 90s. The warm, moist and humid air will remain over the region on Sunday, with upper level moisture also increasing as a cold front approaches from the northwest and moves into the region. The front will stall over the area while a wave forms along the front associated with an upper level trough.
617 AM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025 - Dry conditions this weekend, with highs in upper 70s to low 80s this afternoon warming into the low 90s Sunday.
(Today and tonight) An H5 ridge across the southern Gulf expands across the eastern Gulf later today.
- Rain showers and much cooler air are expected behind the cold front Saturday, with afternoon temperatures well below July normals.
634 AM EDT Sat Jul 12 2025 (Today and tonight) An H5 ridge across the southern Gulf expands across the eastern Gulf later today.
Upper ridging over the area this weekend will keep conditions warm and dry across western Washington.
Otherwise, clear skies are expected with temperatures warming to the mid-90s across lower elevations as high pressure aloft builds in over our area.
1218 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025 - Dry conditions this weekend, with highs in upper 70s to low 80s this afternoon warming into the low 90s Sunday.
230 PM EDT Sat Jul 12 2025 A cold front will near the region on Sunday with widespread showers and thunderstorms, some of which could produce strong gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall.
1130 AM MDT Sat Jul 12 2025 - A cooler and drier day is forecast for today with highs around 80. - Warmer temperatures in the 90s and generally dry conditions are forecast through Mon/Tues. All the precipitation should end by about sunrise as the upper trough continues to push east. For the daytime hours, a cooler and clearer day is forecast on the back side of the surface cold front and upper trough. This evening and into tonight, there is about a 20% chance that maybe a few showers or storms could graze Eastern Colorado with the usual precipitation that forms in the higher terrain.
A cold front will near the region on Sunday with widespread showers and thunderstorms, some of which could produce strong gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall.
The warm front extends west to east from the lows center, across Canada, and into New England. The corresponding cold front stretches southwestward from the lows center, reaching down to the southern Central Plains. Locally, eastern Kentucky is firmly within the warm sector regime, behind the warm front but ahead of the approaching cold front. This setup will lead to warmer temperatures as southwesterly flow advects warmer temperatures and higher dew points into the region.
Discussion: Upper trough across the Midwest and Great Lakes will provide enhanced forcing which will support scattered showers and storms through this evening. The risk for isolated flooding also remains due to the high PW airmass. Still potential for increased coverage by late week as a trough returns to the eastern U. Hot conditions return as an upper ridges strength peaks in the middle part of the work week.
1227 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025 Although an upper level trough will try to drop into our region from the northwest this weekend, high pressure surface and aloft to our southeast with not only hang tough but actually strengthen over our CWA. With the lower rain chances and warmer temperatures topping out in the low to mid 90s, heat stress concerns will increase in our west along the Mississippi river especially. /22/ High pressure aloft will gradually retrograde into the region throughout the forecast period.
1257 PM EDT Sat Jul 12 2025 A cold front sweeps through the area late Sunday with some showers and thunderstorms ahead of it.
Fog graphics will not be introduced at this time given the low probability of fog development highlighted by HREF guidance. Expect nighttime temperatures to drop into the low 70s areawide. To the west of this high, southerly moist boundary layer advection will continue across our forecast area. With the lower afternoon rain chances, heat stress concerns will continue to increase across our forecast area for Sunday with many areas reaching the 105 heat index reading mark.
(This evening through Sunday night) Latest upper level analysis shows a ridge centerd over the Gulf, another one near southern California and a trough across the north- central US. The CWA is on the northwestern periperhy of the ridge, a region of some subisdence but not a lot and certainly not enough to inhibit summertime convection.
- Cooler than normal temperatures this weekend moderate to near summer norms by midweek. Outside of the far southern Rolling Plains, the rest of the area looks to remain dry in a stable airmass behind a cold front. Models continue to indicate a south/eastward trend in the precipitation as an upper trough looks to be outside our CWA by this evening.
1205 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025 (Rest of Today and Tonight) Upper level ridging across the Southeast US continues today with high pressure centered near the Gulf Coast. Another hot and humid day is in store for the Tennessee Valley as mostly sunny skies this morning have already warmed temperatures into the lower 80s with heat index values in the upper 80s to around 90F as of 10am. By this afternoon, temperatures will top out in the lower 90s with the heat index peaking between 100-105F. The highest values will be along and west of I-65.
A very slow-moving cold front will approach our southeast Ohio counties by Sunday morning, with showers and thunderstorms developing ahead of it. Models remain in agreement that wind shear will remain fairly weak ahead of this cold front, with 0-6 km bulk shear values of only 10-20 kts across the region.
Weak high pressure in place across the region with weak flow throughout much of the atmosphere.
239 PM MDT Sat Jul 12 2025 - A cooler and drier day is forecast for today with highs around 80.
247 PM MDT Sat Jul 12 2025 - A cooler and drier day is forecast for today with highs around 80.
At the surface a cold front was slowing as it moved into the SGF CWA but is expected to near the AR border tonight. A 20-30 SW to NE orientated low level jet will be parallel to upper flow which should be enough to formulate a weakly back building MCS as the upper low slowly advects east. The work week for most will begin where Sunday left off as the upper low wobbles into the region.
148 PM MDT Sat Jul 12 2025 - Warmer (80s and 90s) and dry this weekend.
The Piedmont trough may sharpen slightly heading into Sunday while a subtle mid level ridge builds overhead turning 500mb flow to the north. The seabreeze will have a slightly harder time pushing inland, the end result being low end chc POPs area- wide as the afternoon warms into the low to mid 90s. Mid level ridging will more or less be the feature of note for the beginning of the work week.
- Warmer tomorrow, more storms in mtns with plains nearly dry. Currently, early this afternoon a few storms were ongoing across the high country, while the larger valleys and plains were clear. Storms will be a bit more in coverage over all of the higher terrain as better moisture moves into the mtns, however the plains will remain dry an NNW'rly flow at steering level remains over the region. Temps tomorrow , over the plains will warm up quite a bit as compared to today, and expect temps to average about 10F warmer. There will be a daily shot of afternoon and evening convection, with the greatest probabilities across the higher terrain. Temperatures across the high valleys are forecast to hover around seasonal normals each day.
The main show however is still over West TX where a storm complex sparked off by a weak upper level trough will push across the area.
Given the very moist dew points in the lower to middle 70s and a few areas receiving rain, patchy fog is expected late tonight.
659 PM EDT Sat Jul 12 2025 A cold front sweeps through the area late Sunday with some showers and thunderstorms ahead of it.
High pressure continues to build in from the southwest tomorrow helping triple-digit temperatures return to the lower valleys. They synoptic pattern really doesn't change much through the seven- day forecast with high pressure being the driving force behind much of our weather for the week to come. Locally, this wave will flatten out the ridge overhead and could help temperatures cool off a few degrees. PWAT anomalies of 100-125% of normal will not support the widespread rains we need, but will support convection over the high terrain each afternoon. Afternoon storms are possible Sunday across the higher terrain.
752 PM EDT Sat Jul 12 2025 Weak high pressure in place across the region with weak flow throughout much of the atmosphere.
615 PM EDT Sat Jul 12 2025 A cold front will near the region on Sunday with widespread showers and thunderstorms, some of which could produce strong gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall.
816 PM EDT Sat Jul 12 2025 (Through Sunday) An upper level high pressure system across the Gulf continues to nose in across the CWA, and will continue to do so throughout the weekend.
- Hot and humid conditions are expected across the Mid-South, with high temperatures generally in the low to mid 90s and heat index values at or above 100 degrees.
736 PM EDT Sat Jul 12 2025 A cold front sweeps through the area late Sunday with some showers and thunderstorms ahead of it.
High pressure continues to build in from the southwest tomorrow helping triple-digit temperatures return to the lower valleys. They synoptic pattern really doesn't change much through the seven- day forecast with high pressure being the driving force behind much of our weather for the week to come. Locally, this wave will flatten out the ridge overhead and could help temperatures cool off a few degrees. PWAT anomalies of 100-125% of normal will not support the widespread rains we need, but will support convection over the high terrain each afternoon.
The high moisture will still be present so heavy rainfall from these storms cannot be ruled out.
929 PM EDT Sat Jul 12 2025 A cold front will approach the area Sunday.
500 PM MDT Sat Jul 12 2025 - A cooler and drier day is forecast for today with highs around 80.
Airmass immediately behind the front is not wholly different, primarily a few degrees cooler and drier dew points displaced back over Nebraska/western Iowa.
A region of high pressure continues to sit over the state of Florida with associated weak westerly or northwesterly flow throughout the day. Looking ahead into early this week, an area of low pressure is expected to move across Florida into the northeastern Gulf, where it could potentially turn into a tropical system as it continues to move away to the west during midweek.
Updated at 123 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025 - Continued shower/thunderstorm chances today, mainly in/near the higher terrain (40-60% there, 10-40% elsewhere).
High pressure continues to build in from the southwest tomorrow helping triple-digit temperatures return to the lower valleys. They synoptic pattern really doesn't change much through the seven- day forecast with high pressure being the driving force behind much of our weather for the week to come. Locally, this wave will flatten out the ridge overhead and could help temperatures cool off a few degrees. PWAT anomalies of 100-125% of normal will not support the widespread rains we need, but will support convection over the high terrain each afternoon. Smoke will continue to spread southward Sunday from the highway 50 corridor thanks to area wildfires.
1205 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025 Sunday through Sunday night: An upper level trough over the central and southern Plains will try to shift east into our region but high pressure at the surface and aloft to our southeast will strengthen over our CWA through the day. With the lower rain chances and warmer temperatures topping out in the low to mid 90s, heat stress concerns will increase in our west along the Mississippi river especially.
1244 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025 Sunday through Sunday night: An upper level trough over the central and southern Plains will try to shift east into our region but high pressure at the surface and aloft to our southeast will strengthen over our CWA through the day. With the lower rain chances and warmer temperatures topping out in the low to mid 90s, heat stress concerns will increase in our west along the Mississippi river especially.
An area of high pressure over the Gulf will expand over Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley. As for temperatures, the low temperatures are generally expected to be in the 70s for most of Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley. The high temperatures are expected to generally be in the 90s, however a few places in Starr and Zapata counties could be in the triple digits. Increasing swell affecting the Lower Texas coast will allow for moderate risk of rip current for the next several days. High pressure over the Lower Texas coast will keep rain chances to a minimum through the period.
159 AM EDT Sun Jul 13 2025 Atlantic high pressure along with an inland trough will generally prevail although a front could near mid week bringing a bit better rain chances. The low pressure offshore to our NE will extend a trough of lower pressure down the coast just offshore which will get dragged inland this afternoon as the Piedmont trough inland interacts with it. Highs in the lower to mid 90s with lows in the lower to mid 70s. Key Messages/Highlights: *Mainly afternoon/evening showers/storms *Near normal severe storm risk *Slightly above normal flash flood risk *Near to above normal temps Confidence: *Moderate to High Details: No significant weather features expected this period with weak low prosier to the south, high pressure to the east and a trough inland.
So far, most of southern MO has seen at least a trace of rain with the highest rainfall totals occurring over Texas and Shannon counties where they saw around 2-3 inches Saturday afternoon.
- Hot and humid conditions will remain across the Mid-South, with high temperatures generally in the low to mid 90s. For the remainder of the day, a very similar pattern to yesterday is anticipated as we remain wedged between two high pressure systems with a trough across the south/central plains. This trough is expected to deamplify over the next 24 hours, with a weak frontal boundary remaining just to our north today. As such, will have some additional lift to generate some more coverage in our afternoon shower and thunderstorms, with the highest PoPs (50-70%) generally along and north of the I-40 corridor. High temperatures will likely remain in the low to mid 90s through the remainder of the week as well.
139 AM EDT Sun Jul 13 2025 A cold front will approach the area Sunday.
1240 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025 An area of high pressure over the Gulf will expand over Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley. As for temperatures, the low temperatures are generally expected to be in the 70s for most of Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley. The high temperatures are expected to generally be in the 90s, however a few places in Starr and Zapata counties could be in the triple digits. Increasing swell affecting the Lower Texas coast will allow for moderate risk of rip current for the next several days. High pressure over the Lower Texas coast will keep rain chances to a minimum through the period.
943 PM MDT Sat Jul 12 2025 - A cooler and drier day is forecast for today with highs around 80.
137 AM EDT Sun Jul 13 2025 Hot temperatures are expected to start off the week with weak upper ridging in place. The ridge then breaks down, leading to cooler temperatures and higher rain chances during the mid-week period. A new upper ridge could build in from the east to end the week with slowly warming temperatures. Weak and broad ridging aloft will continue to build across the Southeast throughout Sunday, with the ridge just upstream of our area. There is not any sort of capping aloft despite the subtle ridging, so convection should steadily develop throughout the afternoon as we hit convective temps.
(Today) Mid-level high pressure, currently centered over the northern Gulf, will build northward throughout the day today. High temps will remain in the low 90s today with max heat index values this afternoon reaching the upper 90s to around 100 degrees.
-Portions of west/north Arkansas may see cooler temperatures Sun- Mon.
505 AM MDT Sun Jul 13 2025 - Warmer temperatures in the 90s and generally dry conditions are forecast through Monday.
606 AM EDT Sun Jul 13 2025 Atlantic high pressure along with an inland trough will generally prevail although a front could near mid week bringing a bit better rain chances. The low pressure offshore to our NE will extend a trough of lower pressure down the coast just offshore which will get dragged inland this afternoon as the Piedmont trough inland interacts with it. Highs in the lower to mid 90s with lows in the lower to mid 70s. Key Messages/Highlights: *Mainly afternoon/evening showers/storms *Near normal severe storm risk *Slightly above normal flash flood risk *Near to above normal temps Confidence: *Moderate to High Details: No significant weather features expected this period with weak low prosier to the south, high pressure to the east and a trough inland.
239 PM MST Fri Jan 31 2025 - Isolated snow showers central mountains, otherwise warmer all areas with winds increasing in and near the mountains.
(00Z TAFS) An approaching cold front will result in light showers over the local TAF sites from 06Z to 09Z as well as cigs to MVFR levels. The tail end of this weakening cold front will pass across the region tonight, accompanied by a broken line of showers and a few embedded thunderstorms, mainly across inland SE GA and Suwannee Valley.
(Now through Saturday) An upper trof over the eastern states weakens and exits off into the western Atlantic through Saturday morning. Showers currently over the easternmost portion of the area, associated with a pre-frontal surface trof, exit to the east by late this afternoon. Lows tonight range from the lower 40s inland to the mid to upper 40s at the coast, then Saturday night will be a bit cooler and range from around 40 well inland to the mid 40s at the coast.
- Patchy fog will develop tonight into early Saturday morning, with the highest chances (30-60%) of visibilities less than 1 mile generally along and west of the I-49 corridor and into west- central Missouri.
Clouds will continue to filter through the area ahead of the low pressure system set to bring widespread rain to central and northern California over the weekend. Flow aloft will continue to become more zonal as we find ourselves sandwiched between high pressure to our south and an area of low pressure over the Pacific Northwest. The plume of moisture associated with this low pressure system will fuel widespread precipitation to northern and central California as well as the Great Basin over the weekend. Snow levels upwards of 9,500 feet will limit snow accumulation to the ridgeline where upwards of a foot of new snow is expected.