Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
(Today through Saturday afternoon) Northwesterly flow aloft remains prevalent across much of west Texas and southeast New Mexico early this morning between an upper-level low and associated trough axis over eastern Oklahoma and the ArkLaTex and upper-level ridging building across the eastern Pacific/Baja region. The upper-level ridge will slowly build eastward from the Baja region toward northern Mexico and far west Texas and southwestern New Mexico through this afternoon and evening. Isolated to scattered convection (10-30% coverage) should initiate over the higher terrain of the Guadalupe and Davis Mountains and the Big Bend region this afternoon, with additional isolated (10-20% coverage) storm development forming over parts of the southeast New Mexico Plains, Permian Basin this evening. The upper-level ridge will continue to expand across New Mexico and much of west Texas on Saturday.
Meanwhile, weak ridging aloft is pushing off the Pacific into the Desert Southwest. Near the surface, a weak lee side trough of low pressure remains anchored in extreme eastern Colorado. Marginal thunderstorm chances (20-30%) return to portions of western Kansas tonight as the SREF continues to show weak H5 vort maxima cresting the axis of a slowly building ridge in the Colorado Rockies, and ejecting eastward into the high plains of eastern Colorado this evening. This combined with steepening mid-level lapse rates in conjunction with max daytime heating, will set the stage for diurnally driven thunderstorm development in eastern Colorado late this afternoon as ejecting H5 vort maxima interact with an axis of low level convergence associated with the anchored lee side trough.
An upper closed low, part of a weak upper trough, drops south and is continuing to slide northeast into the Ozarks. Ahead of the low, south surface winds carry moisture north through the Mississippi and Ohio River Valleys. Lows are expected to drop into the low 70s to upper 60s. Chances will increase as the upper low inches towards the Lower Ohio Valley. Precipitation is expected to come in waves as they swing around the low, and with diurnal warming, afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms could see higher rainfall rates as precipitable water values reach slightly above 2", leading to heavy showers. Highs are expected to reach into the low to mid 80s. Precipitation will likely continue in waves, but as the low nears the CWA on Saturday, rainfall is expected to become more widespread.
An upper level trough moving through the Pacific Northwest has weakened high pressure over the area. High temperatures are forecast to be a few degrees cooler today, with most of the warmer valleys forecast to be in the high 70s to the low 80s. Interior ridges and wind channeled valleys (including Lake County) have a over 70% chance to gust over 25 mph as well.
1233 AM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025 Updated at 1225 AM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025 - Low thunderstorm chances (10-20%) persist in the higher terrain of West Texas and southeastern New Mexico through Friday. (This afternoon through Friday night) Northwesterly flow aloft continues as we lie on the backside of an upper-level trough with ridging building out west. A few disturbances rolling within this pattern along with upsloping southeasterly surface winds will aid in the formation of isolated (10-20%) showers and storms Friday, primarily in the vicinity of the higher terrain and portions of the Permian Basin.
A strong area of high pressure will remain over the region for the next few days, bringing seasonably warm temperatures and dry conditions. A strong ridge will continue to build across the region through the weekend. Temperatures will certainly be hot across northern Arizona, but the main location for concern will be at the lower elevations of the Grand Canyon.
547 AM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025 - Cloudy and humid day today with chances for rain, especially along and south of I-80 as an upper level low lumbers into the area. An upper level low south of the area was slowly moving north and east into the area this morning. Looking at cloud cover, this will likely keep temperatures cooler across the area. The higher Tds rapidly move east of the area tonight as easterly flow north of the upper low tries to usher in drier and cooler air overnight. Ridging builds west of the area at the start of the period, as NW flow affects our area. This ridge flattens into the weekend as return flow starts to bring warmer more moist air into the area through the weekend.
Upper air analysis shows near zonal flow across the northern Plains, transitioning to WSW flow over the western CONUS ahead of a stalled PAC coast trough.
The highest probability of thunder will be along the ID-WY border and MT Divide region, with HREF probability of thunder 30% and lower. Dry conditions will return on Saturday as high pressure amplifies over the Southwest and moisture remains further north. Temperatures will continue to run around 10 or more degrees above normal, with daytime highs in the 80s across the low elevations and 60s and 70s in the mountains and mountain valleys. Strengthening high pressure over the Southwest will mean warming temperatures and mostly dry conditions across Southeast Idaho over the weekend. Daytime highs will reach 15 degrees, give or take, above climatological norms, with temperatures warming into the low 90s across the valleys and 70s and 80s in the higher elevations.
Most areas will remain dry today with high temps in the lower 90s. Water vapor imagery shows a slow moving upper trough now centered off to our northeast with North Texas on the back side of this system resulting in drier mid level air spreading into the region. Afternoon highs will top out in the lower 90s today and creep upward a degree or two by Saturday. /Issued 244 AM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025/ /Saturday Night Onward/ Mid-level ridging will attempt to build into the region this weekend, putting us beneath north flow aloft.
718 AM EDT Fri Jun 13 2025 - Cooler and a bit breezy today with a narrow band of showers passing through the area, mainly along and north of M-32.
522 AM MDT Fri Jun 13 2025 - High pressure builds in bringing hot, dry, and windy conditions to the area for the weekend. Dry air will continue to move in today as high pressure sets up to our south.
Higher rain/storm coverage in the afternoon should damper daytime highs a tad into the lower to mid 80s primarily.
As the closed low to the west shifts further east, winds will increase and veer slightly more.
While ridging aloft will keep convection coverage down somewhat, there should be enough moisture and instability in place to allow for scattered convection by the evening hours with most activity generally disorganized given the absence of any deep layer shear but a few isolated strong wind gusts can't be ruled out. Otherwise, another warm and humid afternoon ahead with highs reaching the the low to mid 90s and other than some minor tweaks to PoPs this morning, the remainder of the forecast is on track.
Southeast Michigan resides between a high pressure moving across the northern Great Lakes and a stalled frontal boundary across IN/OH. The high pressure will aide in keeping mostly dry conditions across MBS, FNT and more than likely PTK through today. Best precipitation chances across the southern metro terminals will be tonight with ceilings in the low VFR to MVFR range under any rain showers. This boundary will again stall out in response to dry ENE flow from a Canadian high pressure system which will oppose moisture advection ahead of the upstream wave. Lingering rain chances will be possible through late tomorrow morning until high pressure drops south into the Great Lakes, dissolving mid-level convergence.
624 AM EDT Fri Jun 13 2025 - Cooler and a bit breezy today with a narrow band of showers passing through the area, mainly along and north of M-32.
An inverted trough could approach the area from the gulf Wed-Thu increasing our moisture and rain chances for late week. Subsidence ahead of this trough, could lower rain chances slightly on Tue.
(This afternoon through Saturday night) Northwesterly flow aloft resides over our region to start off the short term as we transition from a trough to a ridge. The upper- level ridge progresses eastward out of northwestern Mexico on Saturday, kicking up the thermostat a few degrees.
Widespread showers associated with an 850 mb warm front and 850-700 mb frontogenesis still covered most of northern WI this afternoon, but were gradually decreasing over north central WI.
1210 PM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025 - Warmer than average temperatures top out in the upper 80s today and in the lower 90s tomorrow with light winds.
The main forcing feature that will bring enhanced rain chances will be a closed low over the Mid MS Valley this evening that will slowly move east across the lower OH Valley through Saturday night. Saturday and Saturday night looks pretty similar to today/tonight, with afternoon heating leading to isolated/scattered showers/storms, followed by higher rain chances in the late afternoon/evening as the upper low draws closer and brings slightly cooler temperatures aloft and low to midlevel convergence. Storms will likely persist well into Saturday night as the upper trough moves over the area.
Thunderstorms have already begun to develop over the higher terrain and coverage will likely continue to increase through early evening.
A mid-level trough continues to lift northeast towards the Great Lakes region as ridging expands over the western US leaving our area under northwest flow today and tonight.
309 PM EDT Fri Jun 13 2025 Atlantic high pressure will build across the Southeast U. Any minor flooding should remain limited to the low-lying and poorly drained areas, or locations where there is some storm training. Tonight: The mid-levels will consist of us being on the western periphery of sub-tropical ridging. At the surface, High pressure will remain over the western Atlantic, with it's periphery extending into our area. Lows will remain mild, mainly in the low to mid 70s.
--------------------------------------------------------------- A bit of convergence in the low levels along a stalled boundary may allow enough surface convergence for storms to initiate today, most likely in the 2pm to 8pm timeframe. The exact location will be difficult to wash out with a fairly homogeneous environment, but CAM probabilities are a bit higher around and north of Pittsburgh with perhaps higher chances in the ridges in orographics.
After a brief lull in rain shower activity from the Brainerd Lakes area east into northwest Wisconsin late this afternoon and evening, rain showers are expected to increase in coverage once again for these areas along the low level baroclinic zone late tonight and continue into Saturday. Stratus and some fog in the higher elevations of the Twin Ports also seems likely for this setup late tonight and Saturday.
The environment reaching the higher end of the above parameters later today could result in strong to severe storms. The higher end of this range and resultant heavy rainfall could result in ponding of water and possible flash flooding. Outside of shower activity, a warm and humid afternoon can be expected, with highs rising into the mid 80s, and heat index values ~5-10 degrees warmer.
1132 AM MDT Fri Jun 13 2025 - High pressure builds in bringing hot, dry, and windy conditions to the area for the weekend. Dry air will continue to move in today as high pressure sets up to our south.
(Today through Saturday) Key Messages: -Daily shower and thunderstorm chances remain high -Main hazards will be heavy rainfall and frequent lightning -Flooding risk increases as ground becomes saturated The region is wedged between a fairly broad/flat yet weak Bermuda ridge aloft extending from the Atlantic to FL and a cut off low to the west over the southern plains.
(Tonight) Satellite imagery this afternoon shows a low pressure system spinning over MO with the leading edge of a sub-tropical trough axis pushing eastward across the Tennessee Valley.
(This evening through Saturday Night) The slow-moving cyclone that has brought a continuous stream of rainfall to the Ark-La-Tx has meandered off toward the NE CONUS.
(Rest of today through Saturday) A long wave ridge is set up over the central part of the country with an upper level low spinning over the plains. This upper level low is what will bring unsettle weather to Middle TN through the weekend. Highs today will be in the low to mid 80s. The upper level low will be overhead on Saturday bringing widespread scattered showers and thunderstorms for the afternoon and evening. Highs will be a few degrees cooler than Friday.
A low pressure system rippling along the surface front is bringing an area of light rain up toward the Detroit taf sites so included a few hours of shower chances there this afternoon. Additional round of light showers will be possible tonight for the same locations as the center of the low passes just to the south. There will be a chance for showers this afternoon and again tonight as a low pressure system passes south of the state. This boundary will again stall out in response to dry ENE flow from a Canadian high pressure system which will oppose moisture advection ahead of the upstream wave. Lingering rain chances will be possible through late tomorrow morning until high pressure drops south into the Great Lakes, dissolving mid-level convergence.
A strong area of high pressure will remain over the region for the next few days, bringing seasonably warm temperatures and dry conditions. A warm and dry day is in store today as ridging continues to build. Winds will be a touch calmer today due to more shallow mixing and slightly weaker flow aloft with the building ridge. A strong ridge will continue to build across the region through the weekend. Temperatures will certainly be hot across northern Arizona, but the main location for concern will be at the lower elevations of the Grand Canyon.
Minor Heat Risk will be present for most of the lower elevations today with Moderate Heat Risk in the Kern County Desert. Seasonable temperatures will continue across the lower elevations of central California today as zonal flow causes winds to propagate from the west. As we move further into the weekend, the zonal pattern will erode as an upper level trough makes its way through the Pacific Northwest region. Cyclonic flow around the trough will cause flow over central California to shift from the southwest, resulting in temperatures a few degrees cooler than during the work week and near average for this time of year.
200 PM MDT Fri Jun 13 2025 - High pressure builds in bringing hot, dry, and windy conditions to the area for the weekend. Warm and dry conditions dominate the forecast this weekend with an upper-level ridge overhead.
Isolated showers are lingering over the higher elevations of Baker County and the west-central Idaho mountains. Isolated thunderstorms are expected in the higher elevations through the afternoon. A quasi-stationary cold front over the OR-ID border is likely to bring breezy NW winds, with gusts up to 25 mph in the Treasure Valley through the early afternoon.
Weak high pressure with southwest flow aloft will continue to favor warm temperatures and afternoon thunderstorms, especially across southwest Montana and along the Continental Divide.
A stronger trough finally arrives on Mon, bringing back a threat of showers and thunderstorms for the nearly the whole area, save the southwest corner and eastern Magic Valley.
124 PM EDT Fri Jun 13 2025 - Cooler and a bit breezy today with a narrow band of showers passing through the area, mainly along and north of M-32.
250 PM EDT Fri Jun 13 2025 Bermuda High Pressure remain in place over the next several days.
Troughing from an upper level low out west can bring enough lift to allow for afternoon thunderstorms to continue into the night on Saturday.
Upper air analysis shows near zonal flow across the northern Plains, transitioning to WSW flow over the western CONUS ahead of a stalled PAC coast trough. Convection will develop in the high terrain in Wyoming this afternoon and move east potentially impacting TAF sites with strong wind gusts and brief visiblity late afternoon through evening.
As ridging builds into the region from the west, a corridor of decent WAA is expected across central and western Kansas. The midlevel ridge axis will remain just to our west over the course of the weekend which will continue to support diurnally driven, upslope flow convection developing in the High Plains during the late afternoon and early evening hours.
1230 PM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025 - Cloudy and humid day today with chances for rain, especially along and south of I-80 as an upper level low lumbers into the area. An upper level low south of the area was slowly moving north and east into the area this morning. Looking at cloud cover, this will likely keep temperatures cooler across the area. The higher Tds rapidly move east of the area tonight as easterly flow north of the upper low tries to usher in drier and cooler air overnight. Ridging builds west of the area at the start of the period, as NW flow affects our area. This ridge flattens into the weekend as return flow starts to bring warmer more moist air into the area through the weekend.
338 PM EDT Fri Jun 13 2025 High pressure will build across the region through the weekend as low pressure remains south of Maine. High pressure is building eastward into Quebec from Ontario. This high will keep the area dry tonight as a wave of low pressure tracks south of New England. The Crown of Maine has the greatest odds of clearing tonight, being closer to the high. Areas south of Katahdin will see more clouds streaming northward from the low.
Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Early this afternoon, disorganized low pressure sits well to our southwest over the Missouri Valley and high pressure anchored northern Ontario. Showers continue to percolate across parts of the forecast area through the remainder of the day into tonight before low pressure and attendant mid-level wave trek into Ohio Valley and low-level convergence washes out. Pattern Forecast: More zonal/weakly ridged mid-upper levels anticipated to be overhead Saturday night through the end of the weekend. Canadian-originated high pressure sagging into the area from the north should largely keep sensible weather to a minimum through this time frame.
- Areas of fog are again expected along the Buffalo Ridge and Hwy 14 corridor tonight into early Saturday resulting in reduced visibility. Tonight: Could again see some fog leak down the Buffalo Ridge of SW Minnesota and perhaps the higher elevations of Jerauld and Beadle county.
Mostly tranquil conditions are expected for the rest of tonight into early Saturday morning with light winds and low temperatures in the low to mid 70s for areas north of I-10, the mid to upper 70s for areas near and south of I-10, and the upper 70s to lower 80s along the coasts. The high temperatures on Saturday will be mostly in the lower 90s inland and in the upper 80s to lower 90s over areas near and along the coasts.
The upper low responsible for this rain continues to shift eastward today, with a dry forecast for much of the region. Tonight, expect dry conditions with temperatures in the lower to mid 70s. By sunrise Saturday, a thick shroud of low clouds will be in place as the low-level jet strengthens. Afternoon temperatures will be in the lower to mid 90s with heat index values in the upper 90s to around 102 degrees.
Morning Update Isolated showers are lingering over the higher elevation areas of Baker County and the west-central Idaho mountains. Isolated thunderstorms are expected in the higher elevations through the afternoon. A quasi-stationary cold front over the OR-ID border is likely to bring breezy NW winds, with gusts up to 25 mph in the Treasure Valley through the early afternoon today.
Minor fluctuations in the marine layer height will continue to cause some day-to-day differences in humidity across some of the higher terrain around 2,000 feet.
Increasing high pressure aloft will continue through the weekend.
521 PM MDT Fri Jun 13 2025 - High pressure builds in bringing hot, dry, and windy conditions to the area for the weekend. Warm and dry conditions dominate the forecast this weekend with an upper-level ridge overhead.
/NEW/ /Through Saturday/ Multiple disturbances pivoting around a slow-moving upper low positioned over the Ozarks continue to ignite convection from the Texas Panhandle to the Gulf coast. The remainder of the forecast area will see a tranquil but muggy evening, with both dewpoints and overnight low temperatures in the low/mid 70s. Highs will be in the low/mid 90s with heat indices of 100-105 due to seasonably high dewpoints.
A strong area of high pressure will remain over the region for the next few days, bringing seasonably warm temperatures and dry conditions. A strong ridge continues to build across the Southwest through the weekend, bringing a period of mostly clear skies, dry conditions, and warm temperatures. The ridge peaks in intensity this weekend, and the primary weather impact will be heat.
739 PM EDT Fri Jun 13 2025 Bermuda High Pressure remain in place over the next several days.
649 PM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025 (Tonight) Satellite imagery this afternoon shows a low pressure system spinning over MO with the leading edge of a sub-tropical trough axis pushing eastward across the Tennessee Valley.
757 PM EDT Fri Jun 13 2025 High pressure will build across the region through the weekend while low pressure remains south of Maine.
Atmospheric moisture remains plentiful, with dewpoints in the low 70s and PWAT values over 2". This should lead to yet another night of mild temperatures (hello Summer!), with lows in the low 70s.
A 500mb cyclone continues to spin its way through the Ozarks. Water vapor imagery showed the eastern boundary of a broad 500mb high to the SW working its way eastward which will 1) push the low steadily eastward through the day, and 2) possibly act to keep showers around through the day east of the I-35 corridor. Through the morning hours, the lower layer of the atmosphere has become fairly disorganized. As the high to the west encroaches, low level flow becomes more divergent which has broken up the coverage of showers. Scattered rain is expected to maintain across central and eastern MO closer to the center of the low where convergence and lift is slightly better.
1033 PM EDT Fri Jun 13 2025 Bermuda High Pressure remain in place over the next several days.
In fact, Lufkin was already a degree cooler than our previous forecast low. So we lowered there a couple and a few other mid 70s have been bumped down into the lower 70s category. Light NW flow under the upper low will propagate this activity southward as the cool pool builds overnight behind continued development. /24/ (This evening through Saturday Night) The slow-moving cyclone that has brought a continuous stream of rainfall to the Ark-La-Tx has meandered off toward the NE CONUS.
726 PM EDT Fri Jun 13 2025 Atlantic high pressure will build across the Southeast U. Any minor flooding should remain limited to the low-lying and poorly drained areas, or locations where there is some storm training. Tonight: The mid-levels will consist of us being on the western periphery of sub-tropical ridging. At the surface, High pressure will remain over the western Atlantic, with it's periphery extending into our area. Lows will remain mild, mainly in the low to mid 70s.
Low temperatures in the low to mid 70s expected along the I-10 corridor and north, mid 70s to near 80 south to the coast tonight and again Saturday night.
659 PM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025 (This evening through Saturday Night) The slow-moving cyclone that has brought a continuous stream of rainfall to the Ark-La-Tx has meandered off toward the NE CONUS.