Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
935 AM EDT Fri May 17 2024 Clouds increase today as another area of low pressure approaches from the west. The 500 mb trough really flattens as it moves through Saturday but will still provide enough lift to generate showers though coverage will be decreasing. The rain and clouds will limit heating and with the trough axis swinging through in the late morning and early afternoon, an increase in shower activity is not anticipated Saturday afternoon as there will not be enough destabilization.
High pressure will increase over the region into the weekend leading to even warmer temperatures with most lower desert locations seeing highs top out at or just over 100 degrees today and Saturday.
So, Heat Advisory is in effect for all the Florida Keys as high temperatures climb into the lower to mid 90s (dewpoints near 80).
606 AM CDT Fri May 17 2024 (Today and tonight) 06Z upper air analysis depicts a dampened, positively-tilted trough pivoting over the southern Rocky Mountains and into the southern Great Plains, with a well-defined vorticity lobe rotating about its base over northern Sonora. Geopotential heights will gradually rise throughout the remainder of the period as the backside of the slow-moving trough progresses into West Texas, and the corresponding NVA associated with the northerly flow aloft will result in a clearing sky less the redevelopment of a boundary-layer cu field in the Rolling Plains this afternoon.
The left over boundary from this convection will lift northward as a warm front throughout the day, and should provide a focus for additional thunderstorm development across our interior areas. The pre- storm environment in the warm sector after midday Friday south of a northeastward moving warm front will have sufficient MLCAPE values around 1,500 to 2,200j/kg. Additional showers and storms are possible into Saturday as the approaching cold front slowly slips through the area.
KEY MESSAGES: - Showers and a few thunderstorms will continue today with the passage of a weak trough. _____________________________________________________________ Showers with a couple of embedded thunderstorms continue to cross the region this morning with a relatively weak mid-level trough and a nearly nonexistent surface reflection. _______________________________________________ Upper troughing still transitioning across the region will maintain shower chances on Saturday.
Aloft, westerly to southwesterly flow ahead of an approaching trough remains active, with several impulses aiding in convection today and tomorrow. The trough over the southern Plains moves across the Lower Mississippi River Valley Saturday, and expect expansion of convection in response to lift from the trough, weak low level convergence (mainly north), and continued elevated instability.
241 AM MST Fri May 17 2024 High pressure will increase over the region into the weekend leading to even warmer temperatures with most lower desert locations seeing highs top out at or just over 100 degrees today and Saturday.
Temperatures along the island chain are currently as warm as the lower 80s with oppressive dewpoints in the upper 70s to match. Most of the deep layer moisture will reside north of our area as ridging in the Caribbean keeps our flow aloft zonal to slightly anticyclonic. High temperatures will reach into the lower 90s and as long as dewpoints hold out in the upper 70s, we will see another round of heat index values above 100. Deep layer ridging will dominate our sensible weather pattern throughout this weekend resulting in multiple days of low rain chances and near record heat. That is until the end of the weekend when a mid latitude trough marches southeast from the Midwest. As the ridging retreats into the Atlantic, tropical moisture will be pulled into our area as flow becomes more cyclonic.
639 AM EDT Fri May 17 2024 Clouds increase today as another area of low pressure approaches from the west. The 500 mb trough really flattens as it moves through Saturday but will still provide enough lift to generate showers though coverage will be decreasing. The rain and clouds will limit heating and with the trough axis swinging through in the late morning and early afternoon, an increase in shower activity is not anticipated Saturday afternoon as there will not be enough destabilization.
450 AM CDT Fri May 17 2024 Today and Tonight: A positively-tilted trough remains stretched from west to north of our forecast area early this morning, but it is on the move today. Despite the MCS that blew east along the Gulf Coast overnight, continued southwesterly flow aloft associated with the trough should help some with moisture recovery into the daytime today.
(This evening through Saturday Night) Slow-moving upper trough axis continues to trudge its way across the Red River Valley this afternoon, maintaining expansive cloud cover but very little in the way of convection thus far. However, we may see a slight uptick in convective coverage this evening across our NW zones invof the base of the trough axis as it shifts along the I-30 corridor. As the upper trough gradually shifts east of the region through the day on Saturday, expect any lingering convection across our easternmost zones to gradually diminish throughout the day.
(Tonight through Saturday night) The primary mid-level trough axis is in the process of advancing through the region today. As a northwesterly flow aloft establishes in wake of the trough axis, we could see some isolated high-based convection develop from this afternoon through early this evening from just across the border into our Southern Edwards Plateau and Rio Grande Plain counties. A much warmer day will be expected on Saturday as mid-level ridging centered to our west and southwest starts to nose more into Texas.
1208 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024 (Today and tonight) 06Z upper air analysis depicts a dampened, positively-tilted trough pivoting over the southern Rocky Mountains and into the southern Great Plains, with a well-defined vorticity lobe rotating about its base over northern Sonora. Geopotential heights will gradually rise throughout the remainder of the period as the backside of the slow-moving trough progresses into West Texas, and the corresponding NVA associated with the northerly flow aloft will result in a clearing sky less the redevelopment of a boundary-layer cu field in the Rolling Plains this afternoon.
Patchy fog and low clouds will develop overnight along with a couple scattered showers as the trough axis remains to the west of the area. The trough axis will slowly move eastward on Saturday with additional shower activity possible and a couple of storms. The highest rain chances will be along the plateau with lower chances the farther west you go.
(This evening through Saturday) Temperatures this afternoon are around 10 to 15 degrees warmer than yesterday afternoon north of I-10, thanks to the clear skies and increased sunshine. Winds will become light and start to switch back to the south this evening and overnight as a high pressure builds at the surface to our southeast. Temperatures tomorrow will continue to increase as an upper level ridge begins to build over the area.
1227 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024 (Today through Saturday) An upper level trough axis stretches from northwest Texas into northeast Sonora Mexico. A weak impulse in the southwest flow aloft is seen on satellite upstream of our region, across interior Mexico, and isolated convection has been noted in the higher terrain of Mexico. Weak upper level ridging is forecast to build over the area on Saturday, producing dry, mostly sunny, and much warmer temperatures. High temperatures on Saturday are forecast in the the low to mid 90s across the Hill Country and along and east of I-35 and I-37, in the upper 90s along the U.
Warmer and drier weather will return to northern Arizona Friday through the weekend, with winds gradually increasing each afternoon. Sunny skies and warm temperatures are expected for today, along with typical afternoon breezes, as high pressure builds into the southwest. Clear skies were being observed across Arizona in the early morning hours as a weak high pressure system began to move in from the west. For today look for a bit warmer daytime temperatures and afternoon west to southwest breezes at a pretty typical 10 to 20 mph.
Warmer and drier weather will return to northern Arizona Friday through the weekend, with winds gradually increasing each afternoon.
Tomorrow afternoon, shower and thunderstorm activity is expected to develop across Central Alabama ahead of an approaching trough.
Water vapor/RAP analysis this aftn indicated stalled upper low parked over the central Plains, with widespread moist ascent over the warm frontal boundary along the Gulf Coast. As the upper low swings into the area on Saturday, some persistent westerly bulk shear around 30-35kts & mid-level lapse rates around 6-6. C/mid 20s vertical totals & freezing levels around 12. In terms of sensible weather, expect gradual moderation into the low-mid 80s & some increase in heat/humidity.
200 PM EDT Fri May 17 2024 Clouds increase today as another area of low pressure approaches from the west. The 500 mb trough really flattens as it moves through Saturday but will still provide enough lift to generate showers though coverage will be decreasing. The rain and clouds will limit heating and with the trough axis swinging through in the late morning and early afternoon, an increase in shower activity is not anticipated Saturday afternoon as there will not be enough destabilization.
1050 AM MDT Fri May 17 2024 - Cold front this evening with gusty northwest winds. Current surface map places low across southern Saskatchewan with weak trough extending into central South Dakota. Low level thermal ridge peaks this afternoon with breezy south-southwest winds with highs reaching the 80s across the plains of western South Dakota. Better chance of thunderstorms comes across northwestern South Dakota late this afternoon/evening with increasing mid level forcing and cold frontal passage. The cold front arrives in northeastern Wyoming and northwestern South Dakota late this afternoon and moves through the rest of western South Dakota this evening. Dry, cooler, and breezy conditions expected Saturday.
(This evening through Saturday) Upper level analysis shows a positively-tilted trough ejecting out of the Southern Plains. Behind it, a brief upper-level ridge will build into our CWA this weekend allowing warm and dry conditions into our area. Therefore, PoPs were lowered to accommodate for the low instability.
Water vapor/RAP analysis this aftn indicated stalled upper low parked over the central Plains, with widespread moist ascent over the warm frontal boundary along the Gulf Coast. Convergence along the low-level frontogenetical boundary is decreasing & thus the rain rates are letting up. /DC/ Today and Tonight: A positively-tilted trough remains stretched from west to north of our forecast area early this morning, but it is on the move today. Despite the MCS that blew east along the Gulf Coast overnight, continued southwesterly flow aloft associated with the trough should help some with moisture recovery into the daytime today.
1020 AM MDT Fri May 17 2024 - Much warmer and drier today.
1245 PM MDT Fri May 17 2024 - Cold front this evening with gusty northwest winds. Water vapor shows upper low over the Northern Rockies with short wave ejecting into eastern MT. At the surface, cold front extends from far northwest ND through southeast MT. Skies are mostly clear across our area, but thunderstorms are developing along the cold front over southeast MT. Later this afternoon and evening, robust cold front will cross our western zones and should be all but through our far south-central SD zones by midnight. Dry, cooler, and breezy conditions expected Saturday.
The cold front is moving through the region this morning, bringing elevated winds with gusts around 30-35 mph in the valleys north of Mountain Home. Gusts on ridgetops are high, with Soldier Mountain recording a 70 mph gust at 9:30am MDT. The Magic Valley and Camas Prairie look to see the highest winds this afternoon, with wind advisories still in place for those zones. Much cooler temperatures with breezy winds and a slight chance of mountain precipitation is anticipated for this weekend.
- Windy and cooler on Saturday with highs mostly in the 60s. We should be warmer than our convective temperature now, so more and more cumulus should start to pop in the next hour, especially with the diffluence over head from the upper level wave. Some CAMs have isolated storms forming now before the main cold front moves through and forms a line. The storm mode is a line because the shear vector will be parallel to the cold front, continuously allowing new convection to form in the line. So the isolated storms that form now, will then combine into a line as the cold front moves in. Highs on Saturday will be much cooler in the 60s, this cooler trend will continue through the weekend.
Rain showers return this evening as a low pressure system slowly moves in from the west, lasting into Saturday afternoon.
Westerly wind gusts of 35-45 mph will be the main impact as a cold front pushes through the Northern Rockies this afternoon. Given the lighter winds, dry air, and partial clearing tonight, lows will drop into the low to mid 30s in lower western Montana and higher central Idaho valleys.
***UPDATE*** A persistent marine layer pattern with strong onshore flow will continue through the weekend as a long wave trough remains along the West Coast. Clearing will be slow or non-existent for coast and valleys with temperatures 4-8 degrees below normal, the valleys being on the higher side of that range. ***From Previous Discussion*** Weak dynamics with the upper-level trough will start to scrape the area tonight and into Saturday morning. The dynamics with the trough will likely lift the marine layer induced cloud deck and squeeze out some drizzle. Strong onshore pressure gradients will likely bring breezy to gusty onshore winds each day across the high valleys and interior portions of the area and into the adjacent foothill areas.
(Thru Tonight) A NE-SW oriented trof axis sits over the region this afternoon, with an embedded vort max clearly evident in the cloud field on satellite imagery over SE OK. CAMs suggest shower/storm coverage will be greatest over W AR and neighboring far E OK ahead of this feature as it, and the parent trough, slide east with time.
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: A cold front is passing through the area this morning, and an associated quick moving trough will pass through in the early afternoon. Specifically, Dawson, Richland, McCone, Sheridan, Daniels, Prairie, and Wibaux counties have the highest probability (10 to 40 percent probability) of seeing severe wind gusts and isolated severe hail. A sunny day is in store for tomorrow after the cold front passes through today, temperatures will only be slightly cooler, and sustained winds will be in the 20 to 30 mph range. A overall trough pattern is expected to remain over the region, so unsettled weather with isolated showers and thunderstorms are expected to remain over the region throughout the week.
MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST WITH PERIODICALLY BREEZY WINDS ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CHANCES OVER THE HIGH SIERRA SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WARM AND DRY WEATHER CONTINUES AS SHORT WAVES TO THE NORTH GRADUALLY WEAKEN THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING.
1005 AM MST Fri May 17 2024 Updated Aviation High pressure will strengthen over the region the next couple days resulting in many more lower desert communities exceeding 100 degrees. The compact vort max that brought yesterday's convection to portions of south-central Arizona has now moved into northern Mexico with upper level ridging quickly filling in from the west. Temperatures Saturday should already start to cool off a couple degrees over the western deserts, but warm another couple degrees across the south-central Arizona lower deserts with highs peaking in the lower 100s in Phoenix. Both days should present a Moderate HeatRisk for a good portion of the lower deserts.
Temperatures reached the lower 90s with a few readings in the mid 90s. South Florida, Cuba, and the Yucatan are suppressed beneath the deep, mean-layer ridging.
1227 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024 * A dry forecast is expected through Saturday afternoon with temperatures rising into the mid to upper 80s this afternoon, slightly cooler on Saturday in the 70s.
Discussion: Developing low pressure and a surface warm front remain in place along the Gulf states. Additionally, given the low level moisture expect there to be some amount of fog/mist development over night. Recent model derived soundings suggest some some instability will build back into the region - generally 750-1250J/kg as the aforementioned warm front lifts into central Georgia. Lapse rates look to be meager, in the low 6C/km range. Temperatures will remain mild trough the near term.
With a mid-level ridge moving in aloft, Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley will be entering another period of hot temperatures.
There is a strong trough moving through southeast Idaho currently with weak high pressure ridging just off the Oregon and Washington coasts. There is an upper level low just off the southern British Columbia coast. Saturday high pressure ridging develops over northern Idaho and weak high pressure looks to build in slightly across southeast Idaho.
First cold front had sagged S through much of the area and was entering Sheridan to Carter Counties at 20Z.
/13 (Rest of today) Currently watching and area of light to moderate rain moving across our interior area this afternoon to the north of a northward moving warm front.
Otherwise, overnight lows will drop to the low to mid 60s.
Given the placement of a deep layer ridge over the Florida Keys and western Caribbean will continue to make it difficult for convection to not only initiate but sustain long enough to affect the Keys. The western extent of a low-level ridge axis extends west-northwest through the Bahamas and across the Keys.
652 PM MDT Fri May 17 2024 - Cold front this evening with gusty northwest winds. Northwesterly winds are becoming strong behind the cold front, and will remain strong overnight. With the cold front already entering far northwest SD, will start the wind advisory now for that area. Water vapor shows upper low over the Northern Rockies with short wave ejecting into eastern MT. At the surface, cold front extends from far northwest ND through southeast MT. Skies are mostly clear across our area, but thunderstorms are developing along the cold front over southeast MT. Later this afternoon and evening, robust cold front will cross our western zones and should be all but through our far south-central SD zones by midnight. Dry, cooler, and breezy conditions expected Saturday.
Daniels (This evening through Saturday) Temperatures this afternoon are around 10 to 15 degrees warmer than yesterday afternoon north of I-10, thanks to the clear skies and increased sunshine. Winds will become light and start to switch back to the south this evening and overnight as a high pressure builds at the surface to our southeast. Temperatures tomorrow will continue to increase as an upper level ridge begins to build over the area.
616 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024 (Thru Tonight) A NE-SW oriented trof axis sits over the region this afternoon, with an embedded vort max clearly evident in the cloud field on satellite imagery over SE OK. CAMs suggest shower/storm coverage will be greatest over W AR and neighboring far E OK ahead of this feature as it, and the parent trough, slide east with time.
This will continue overnight under overcast skies which will only allow low temps to drop into the low to mid 60s areawide.
Overnight lows will be in the lower to mid-70s. Favorable boating conditions are forecast through Saturday as high pressure builds over the state of Florida.
821 PM MDT Fri May 17 2024 Strong and gusty winds behind a cold front will continue into this evening across much of North Central, Central, and Southwest Montana.
Expect activity to dissipate shortly after sunset with loss of heating and passage of upper level low. (Tonight through Saturday night) The primary mid-level trough axis is in the process of advancing through the region today. As a northwesterly flow aloft establishes in wake of the trough axis, we could see some isolated high-based convection develop from this afternoon through early this evening from just across the border into our Southern Edwards Plateau and Rio Grande Plain counties. A much warmer day will be expected on Saturday as mid-level ridging centered to our west and southwest starts to nose more into Texas.
845 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024 Water vapor imagery this evening shows a trough to our west over the OK/AR area which will be moving eastward over our area tomorrow. As this trough approaches, shower activity will become more scattered on Saturday. Patchy fog and low clouds will develop overnight along with a couple scattered showers as the trough axis remains to the west of the area. The trough axis will slowly move eastward on Saturday with additional shower activity possible and a couple of storms. The highest rain chances will be along the plateau with lower chances the farther west you go.
611 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024 (This evening through Saturday) Temperatures this afternoon are around 10 to 15 degrees warmer than yesterday afternoon north of I-10, thanks to the clear skies and increased sunshine. Winds will become light and start to switch back to the south this evening and overnight as a high pressure builds at the surface to our southeast. Temperatures tomorrow will continue to increase as an upper level ridge begins to build over the area.
435 PM MDT Fri May 17 2024 - Cold front this evening with gusty northwest winds. With the cold front already entering far northwest SD, will start the wind advisory now for that area. Water vapor shows upper low over the Northern Rockies with short wave ejecting into eastern MT. At the surface, cold front extends from far northwest ND through southeast MT. Skies are mostly clear across our area, but thunderstorms are developing along the cold front over southeast MT. Later this afternoon and evening, robust cold front will cross our western zones and should be all but through our far south-central SD zones by midnight. Dry, cooler, and breezy conditions expected Saturday.
405 PM MDT Fri May 17 2024 Strong and gusty winds behind a cold front will continue into this evening across much of North Central, Central, and Southwest Montana.
Dry conditions continue through Saturday, along with slightly warmer temperatures and lighter winds.
An upper low will slide by northeast of the area today. This upper low will be followed by another upper low north of the area Saturday. 700 mb (10,000 ft) winds are expected to be stronger as the 2nd upper low will be closer to the area. An upper level low will be in southwestern Canada and this will dip into the PNW this weekend.
This activity has shifted into the Dakotas, and the air mass in its wake is much cooler and thus with low level lapse rates not so steep. Nonetheless, the trof axis itself moving thru central MT will produce more showers and mostly weak t-storms from west to east over the next several hours. First cold front had sagged S through much of the area and was entering Sheridan to Carter Counties at 20Z.
Widespread coastal stratus will likely subside into the weekend as a trough moves through the Pacific Northwest, weakening the morning inversion. Little additional moisture arrives with this trough and rain is not expected, though winds will be stronger this weekend.
632 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024 (Tonight through Saturday night) The primary mid-level trough axis is in the process of advancing through the region today. As a northwesterly flow aloft establishes in wake of the trough axis, we could see some isolated high-based convection develop from this afternoon through early this evening from just across the border into our Southern Edwards Plateau and Rio Grande Plain counties. A much warmer day will be expected on Saturday as mid-level ridging centered to our west and southwest starts to nose more into Texas.