Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
A few isolated locations dipped to freezing, particularly across Northeast Texas. Despite the early start to the growing season, thanks to this protracted freeze-free period, the limited duration of the freezing temperatures and frost today should preclude significant impacts to native vegetation. The upper level low associated with this system will have finally pushed away from the Desert Southwest after a stubborn Omega/Rex block pattern located over the Western CONUS finally breaks down.
1151 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024 (Rest of Today) At 12Z, high pressure was located over southeast TX with a ridge axis east across the southeast U. High temperatures in the lower to middle 50s still looks good at this point.
A few isolated locations dipped to freezing, particularly across Northeast Texas. Despite the early start to the growing season, thanks to this protracted freeze-free period, the limited duration of the freezing temperatures and frost today should preclude significant impacts to native vegetation.
1211 PM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024 (Today through Wednesday Night) High pressure will settle toward the Gulf Coast today. Clockwise flow around the high will bring a breezy west to southwest wind to Arkansas, especially over northern and central sections of the state. As the period progresses, a cold front will approach from the north, and a storm system will head this way from the southern Plains.
/29 (Now through Wednesday) A broad upper trof located mostly over the eastern states and far western Atlantic amplifies a bit through Wednesday while otherwise remaining in place. Lows tonight range from the mid 30s inland to the mid 40s at the coast, and highs on Wednesday range from around 70 to the lower 70s.
1246 PM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024 (Today through Wednesday) Mid to high clouds continue to stream in overhead out of the southwest as the cut-off low remains parked over Southern California. Cloud cover will be mostly responsible for the cooler temperatures.
(Tonight through Wednesday night) High pressure is now spreading over the area and sliding east. In turn, Gulf moisture will begin to move north tonight along the Northeast Mexican coast as winds veer to east and then southeast along a developing weak coastal trough. A mid-level low over the Southwest will begin to trough out and will keep a general southwest 500 mb flow over the CWA in the short term.
Models have greatly slowed the forward speed of the upper trough as it approaches the FA and will ultimately affect precip chances for tomorrow afternoon. Upper flow will be nearly zonal ahead of the upper trough and will transition to southwesterly flow near 00Z tomorrow evening.
1252 PM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024 (Rest of today through Wednesday) Dry conditions will persist across our area per surface ridging influences and northwesterly flow aloft through Wednesday afternoon. With surface ridging influences now taking a tour west to east across northern Gulf Coast Region as afternoon hours today through Wednesday afternoon hours progress, initial cold airmass that resulted in lows generally ranging in low to mid 20s will continued to be southerly warm air advection modified. Lows tonight will be quite warmer ranging upper 30s to lower 40s, mid 30s Cumberland Plateau Region.
- A wetter and cooler weather pattern looks to develop this weekend continuing through the remainder of March. Western WY remained on the cooler side, especially Jackson Hole, where deep snowpack continues to hinder daytime warming. Slightly cooler but still above normal temperatures are expected over western WY, with deep snowpacks limiting the amount of warming. The second half of the week will see this blocking pattern gradually fall apart, in turn allowing westerly flow to return.
246 PM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024 - Very nice today with cooler temperatures and rain chances increasing into the weekend. Expect temperatures to warm a few degrees further this afternoon and top out in the low 70s, possibly even a few mid 70s in east-central Kansas. By Wednesday, a backdoor cold front will move in from the northeast in the morning hours, increasing CAA across the area. Highs Wednesday will be cooler in response, topping out in the 50s north of I-70, and low 60s south.
At the surface, high pressure has settled in over the Texas coast.
1037 AM MDT Tue Mar 19 2024 - High pressure hold firm across the area through Wednesday, with mild temperatures and clear skies.
1248 PM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024 (Today through Wednesday) The axis of the upper level trough that brought the most recent cold front through the region is now east of the Appalachian Mountains and headed to the Atlantic Ocean. This, along with strong radiational cooling from light winds and clear skies, would lead to cooler temps. However, upper level ridge will already be moving in from the west which should counter cooling enough to result in lows slightly warmer than they are this morning. Slight amplification of the of that ridge on Wednesday will bring temps back to climatological normals.
357 PM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024 - A cool down arrives tomorrow as a cold front drops into the region from the north.
The return of low-level southerly winds and some passing mid- and high-level clouds should help keep overnight lows well above freezing areawide tonight.
1243 PM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024 A warming trend will begin today as a ridge of high pressure gradually moves southeast towards Florida by tonight.
(Rest of today through Wednesday) Dry conditions will persist across our area per surface ridging influences and northwesterly flow aloft through Wednesday afternoon. With surface ridging influences now taking a tour west to east across northern Gulf Coast Region as afternoon hours today through Wednesday afternoon hours progress, initial cold airmass that resulted in lows generally ranging in low to mid 20s will continued to be southerly warm air advection modified. Lows tonight will be quite warmer ranging upper 30s to lower 40s, mid 30s Cumberland Plateau Region.
Current water vapor imagery captures a closed upper low meandering across portions of Arizona/New Mexico. Model guidance has been consistent in depicting this feature slowly becoming an open wave and translating towards the High Plains/Panhandle regions during the day Wednesday.
Significantly cooler and drier air has filtered into the area behind the cold front that moved through last night/early this morning.
Though Georgia will be on the western periphery of the high, it should still combine with fair skies and light winds to produce good conditions for radiational cooling tonight. With this in mind we hedged towards the lower end of NBM temperature guidance for tonight's lows (a 50/50 blend of the NBM 50th and 10th percentiles).
1201 PM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024 (Today and tonight) The Rex Block will begin to break down today with the ridge weakening over northern California and a forward, eastern movement of the upper low into Arizona. Tonight, temperatures were warmed a few degrees above the NBM and closer to MOS guidance given the continued southwesterly surface flow, along with insulation from a potential stream of high clouds with the approaching upper low.
25") in place tonight will support low temps at or below NBM guidance values which will lead to low temps in the mid/upper 30s over inland areas of NE FL/SE GA as high pressure ridge axis builds from the North Gulf Coast across the region. Johns River Basin and I-95 corridor expect low temps closer to 40F and in the lower/middle 40s at the Atlantic beaches.
303 PM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024 - A cold front will bring cooler temperatures in starting tomorrow.
1215 PM MDT Tue Mar 19 2024 - Warmer weather, with occasional scattered light mountain snow showers this upcoming week. Forecast highs look alright; it might be a degree or two warmer. Flow aloft will be weak through tonight as the stubborn upper level low remains over the Desert Southwest while northwest flow aloft prevails over much of the eastern half of the country. Clouds form this afternoon over the higher terrain to the southwest of Denver. Warming trend continues today with highs about 5 degrees warmer than yesterday. Weak upper troughing is progged on Wednesday into early evening as the old closed low finally moves eastward across New Mexico.
239 PM MDT Tue Mar 19 2024 - Warmer weather, with occasional scattered light mountain snow showers this upcoming week.
Rex Blocking pattern still the dominate weather feature over the West today as wrap around moisture from the associated upper low provides for afternoon mountain showers. Temperatures this afternoon continue to trend warmer as a few more locations across the San Joaquin Valley have at least a good chance of reaching the 80 degree mark. In addition, while Central California remains under the Rex Blocking pattern, light winds will continue outside of the Eastern Mojave Slopes. By Wednesday, High-Res ensemble upper air analysis has the Rex Block breaking down as the ridge pattern attempts to shift east. Therefore, will see less of a threat of showers on Wednesday as the atmosphere becomes cooler and more stable. As the blocking pattern breaks-down, the door will open as disturbances will once again traverse the West Coast.
(Tonight) A quiet night is anticipated across eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas tonight with warmer temperatures forecast as a southerly breeze prevails. (Wednesday through Tuesday) Another unseasonably warm day is on tap for Wednesday even as a cold front drops into northeast Oklahoma and far northwest Arkansas.
141 PM EDT Tue Mar 19 2024 Dry and breezy conditions are expected today ahead of a dry cold front.
(This evening through Wednesday night) Mostly clear skies tonight with low ranging from the lower 30s to lower 40s. Going into the day tomorrow, the main H500 low pressure system will displace to the east and enter the main steering flow as a ridge builds in its wake across the inter mountain west. a closed low, this could limit the moisture transport into the Panhandles. The highest probabilities (greater than 40-50%) in locations for any rainfall tomorrow will be along a line from Amarillo to Guymon points east. Low temperatures tomorrow night will range from the lower 30s to lower 40s.
612 PM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024 - Very nice today with cooler temperatures and rain chances increasing into the weekend. Expect temperatures to warm a few degrees further this afternoon and top out in the low 70s, possibly even a few mid 70s in east-central Kansas. By Wednesday, a backdoor cold front will move in from the northeast in the morning hours, increasing CAA across the area. Highs Wednesday will be cooler in response, topping out in the 50s north of I-70, and low 60s south.
622 PM PDT Tue Mar 19 2024 Mornings will continue to offer cloudy skies and pockets of fog specifically on the coast and in the lower valleys. The mild weather pattern turns cooler and wetter as cold front brings periods of light to moderate rain and cooler temperatures through the weekend.
Another cloudy but warmer day is in store for Wednesday with slight chance for drizzle, patchy fog and at times light rain along the I- 35 corridor mainly during the afternoon period. As the evening progresses, an upper level short wave trough axis over northern Mexico into New Mexico travels to the east overnight into west Texas. At the surface, a warm front is forecast to push to the north across the Coastal Plains during the same period with dewpoints in the 60s along and east of the I-35 corridor.
624 PM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024 - A cool down arrives tomorrow as a cold front drops into the region from the north.
614 PM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024 (Rest of today through Wednesday) Dry conditions will persist across our area per surface ridging influences and northwesterly flow aloft through Wednesday afternoon. With surface ridging influences now taking a tour west to east across northern Gulf Coast Region as afternoon hours today through Wednesday afternoon hours progress, initial cold airmass that resulted in lows generally ranging in low to mid 20s will continued to be southerly warm air advection modified. Lows tonight will be quite warmer ranging upper 30s to lower 40s, mid 30s Cumberland Plateau Region.
With that stated, temperatures as of ~9PM were generally in the mid 40s to low 50s, with dew point temperatures mainly in the low/mid 20s.
The high pressure is still firmly over the Pacific Northwest this evening, allowing for record high temperatures in eastern Oregon. Cooler temperatures and valley rain/mountain snow are anticipated later in the week, with no updates necessary to the forecast at this time.
Evening RAP/water vapor analysis indicate longwave trough axis swinging off the east coast, while upper low over the Desert Southwest-Baja Peninsula has begun to phase into the longwave pattern. Expect lows in the low 40s northwest of the Natchez Trace corridor while mid-upper 30s along & to the southeast. /DC/ Tonight and Tomorrow: High pressure will remain over the region yielding clear and cool conditions through Wednesday. We could still see a little bit of frost across the northeastern portions of the CWA tonight, but widespread frost and freezing temperatures are not expected. We will warm up a bit for Wednesday reaching the lower 70s across the forecast area.
758 PM EDT Tue Mar 19 2024 Dry weather and warmer temperatures are expected during the next few days.
Mornings will continue to offer cloudy skies and pockets of fog specifically on the coast and in the lower valleys. The mild weather pattern turns cooler and wetter as cold front brings periods of light to moderate rain and cooler temperatures through the weekend.
High pressure continues to bring dry air and cooler temperatures across the Peninsula through the next few days.
531 PM MDT Tue Mar 19 2024 - Warmer weather, with occasional scattered light mountain snow showers this upcoming week.
/NEW/ /Tonight through Wednesday/ Ridging aloft and gradual return flow will result in a warmer night with lows mainly in the 40s. The axis of the deamplifying ridge will shift to the east on Wednesday in response to a deep trough approaching from the Desert Southwest. It does not appear that rain/storm chances will begin until Wednesday night when large scale forcing for ascent, associated with the approaching upper trough, increases. The upper level low associated with this system will have finally pushed away from the Desert Southwest after a stubborn Omega/Rex block pattern located over the Western CONUS finally breaks down.
Unsettled weather and cooler temperatures return late in the week. Unseasonably mild weather continues inland for one more day today as the high pressure dominates the synoptic pattern over Northern California.
603 PM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024 (This evening through Wednesday night) Mostly clear skies tonight with low ranging from the lower 30s to lower 40s. Going into the day tomorrow, the main H500 low pressure system will displace to the east and enter the main steering flow as a ridge builds in its wake across the inter mountain west. a closed low, this could limit the moisture transport into the Panhandles. The highest probabilities (greater than 40-50%) in locations for any rainfall tomorrow will be along a line from Amarillo to Guymon points east. Low temperatures tomorrow night will range from the lower 30s to lower 40s.
Temperatures are relatively steady and in the lower 70s, complemented by dewpoints in the lower 60s.
pdf A broad ridge of high pressure will yield clear skies and light winds Tonight. Favoring the cooler MOS numbers for lows, vs national blend, as the lower numbers look more reasonable given what expecting with dewpoints overnight. Expecting some fairly dramatic temperature gradients for areas near the coast and St Johns river, due to the influence of the relatively warmer bodies of water.
Warm, dry, mostly sunny/clear, low-impact wx with generally light winds continues under high pressure, with daily high temps continuing to exceed NBM guidance (so we continue to massage them higher and closer to reality based on obs/trends over the past 2-3 days).
558 PM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024 - A cold front will bring cooler temperatures in starting tomorrow.
847 PM MDT Tue Mar 19 2024 - Warmer weather, with occasional scattered light mountain snow showers this upcoming week.
608 PM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024 Tonight and Tomorrow: High pressure will remain over the region yielding clear and cool conditions through Wednesday. We could still see a little bit of frost across the northeastern portions of the CWA tonight, but widespread frost and freezing temperatures are not expected. We will warm up a bit for Wednesday reaching the lower 70s across the forecast area.
This will allow temperatures to be chilly once again, but overnight temperatures will stay above freezing. Enjoy! (Rest of today through Wednesday) Dry conditions will persist across our area per surface ridging influences and northwesterly flow aloft through Wednesday afternoon. With surface ridging influences now taking a tour west to east across northern Gulf Coast Region as afternoon hours today through Wednesday afternoon hours progress, initial cold airmass that resulted in lows generally ranging in low to mid 20s will continued to be southerly warm air advection modified. Lows tonight will be quite warmer ranging upper 30s to lower 40s, mid 30s Cumberland Plateau Region.
359 PM PDT Tue Mar 19 2024 Warm and dry weather under High pressure will slowly transition to cooler and wetter by late week.
Toward daybreak Wednesday, the gradient will relax some, so the sheltered areas could go light for a bit, radiate out and be several degrees cooler than surrounding sites. Nevertheless, everyone should stay above freezing tonight into Wednesday under mostly clear to partly cloudy skies. Lacy (Tonight) A quiet night is anticipated across eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas tonight with warmer temperatures forecast as a southerly breeze prevails. (Wednesday through Tuesday) Another unseasonably warm day is on tap for Wednesday even as a cold front drops into northeast Oklahoma and far northwest Arkansas.
650 PM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024 (Tonight) A quiet night is anticipated across eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas tonight with warmer temperatures forecast as a southerly breeze prevails. (Wednesday through Tuesday) Another unseasonably warm day is on tap for Wednesday even as a cold front drops into northeast Oklahoma and far northwest Arkansas.
WV imagery indicates a zonal flow aloft prevailing across the Western High Plains downstream of an upper level ridge of high pressure slowly transitioning east through the Pacific Northwest. Minimal rain/isolated thunderstorm chances (10-20%) remain in the forecast for south central and a small portion of southwest Kansas late today as the SREF indicates the closed upper low opening up as it finally begins to push eastward through the Desert Southwest late this afternoon/evening. Above normal temperatures are forecast for much of southwest Kansas and south central Kansas today despite an approaching cold front projected to push southward through western Kansas this afternoon. The HREF paints a 70-90% probability of temperatures exceeding 70F in areas near and along the Oklahoma border with much cooler highs farther north around the I-70 corridor where the probability of temperatures exceeding 60F is 40-60%.
(Today) Early morning temps are a bit warmer today, currently ranging from the upper 30s to mid 40s as of 2am. Some isolated early morning frost can't be ruled out, especially in cooler areas of higher terrain. WAA will continue today as the Tennessee Valley remains under the influence of broad upper ridging and moist westerly flow.
Coastal stratus and patchy fog will are expected Wednesday and Thursday morning before a cold front brings rain Fri-Sat and cooler temperatures through the weekend.
1246 AM CDT Wed Mar 20 2024 - A cool down arrives tomorrow as a cold front drops into the region from the north.
Steep mid-level lapse rates and good surface heating should support modest instability for a few thunderstorms late Wednesday near the KS/OK border in vicinity of the low-level frontal zone.
A beautiful day ongoing this afternoon as high pressure remains in control of the weather across southeast Wyoming and Nebraska Panhandle. with a surface cold front draped across northern North Dakota west to central Montana. 1PM temperatures across the CWA range from the upper 40s out by Rawlins to the low 60s east of the Laramie Range with sunny to mostly sunny skies. Very dry out in the Nebraska Panhandle with humidity in the low 20 percent range. Backdoor cold front to the north slowly moves south and southwest Wednesday afternoon.
1205 AM CDT Wed Mar 20 2024 (This evening through Wednesday night) Mostly clear skies tonight with low ranging from the lower 30s to lower 40s. Going into the day tomorrow, the main H500 low pressure system will displace to the east and enter the main steering flow as a ridge builds in its wake across the inter mountain west. a closed low, this could limit the moisture transport into the Panhandles. The highest probabilities (greater than 40-50%) in locations for any rainfall tomorrow will be along a line from Amarillo to Guymon points east. Low temperatures tomorrow night will range from the lower 30s to lower 40s.
High pressure is continuing to build into the area in the wake of the recent cold front, with radiational cooling favoring cool temperatures this morning under light winds.
1217 AM CDT Wed Mar 20 2024 - Very nice today with cooler temperatures and rain chances increasing into the weekend. Expect temperatures to warm a few degrees further this afternoon and top out in the low 70s, possibly even a few mid 70s in east-central Kansas. By Wednesday, a backdoor cold front will move in from the northeast in the morning hours, increasing CAA across the area. Highs Wednesday will be cooler in response, topping out in the 50s north of I-70, and low 60s south. The western blocking pattern is progged to continue to break down allowing for the old cutoff low over the southwest to continue to fill and translate east phasing with the northern stream flow by late Wednesday into Thursday.
1214 AM CDT Wed Mar 20 2024 (Tonight) A quiet night is anticipated across eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas tonight with warmer temperatures forecast as a southerly breeze prevails.
1238 AM EDT Wed Mar 20 2024 Warmer temperatures return through Thursday with continued dry weather.
(Today through Thursday) A large area of high pressure remains centered over the southeast. As we move through the day and into tonight the high pressure will slide to the south as a backdoor front will try to push in from the northeast by Thursday morning. In fact temperatures will likely be warmer across the north as the cold air never really makes it into the area.
1131 PM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024 - A cold front will bring cooler temperatures in starting tomorrow.
258 AM CDT Wed Mar 20 2024 - Cooler temperatures today.
The high pressure system will shift just slightly to the south through tonight while a weak, dry cool front moves down the east coast to central GA and SC late tonight, causing our low level winds to turn more northerly late tonight. For today, sunny to mostly sunny skies anticipated with just some high clouds but temps will be pleasant with maxT in the lower 70s, generally. Slightly cooler along the coast as the Atlantic sea breeze develops this aftn bringing a cool wind to the beach with max T there about 67-70.
1232 AM CDT Wed Mar 20 2024 (Tonight through Wednesday night) High pressure is now spreading over the area and sliding east. In turn, Gulf moisture will begin to move north tonight along the Northeast Mexican coast as winds veer to east and then southeast along a developing weak coastal trough. A mid-level low over the Southwest will begin to trough out and will keep a general southwest 500 mb flow over the CWA in the short term.
150 AM EDT Wed Mar 20 2024 Dry weather and warmer temperatures are expected during the next two days.