Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
- Above normal temperatures A surface cold front, facilitated by the loss of daytime heating, will push east to west off of Lake Huron this evening. The big change with the front will be the lowering of surface dewpoints into the 40s for the majority of Southeast Michigan. The strong mid-upper blocking ridge of 582-588 dam will remain the primary influence throughout the week and first half of the upcoming weekend.
High pressure will continue to bring clear skies and light easterly flow. A longwave mid-upper ridge continues to translate over Great Lakes today bringing stable conditions and no precipitation to speak of through the remainder of the work week. Surface to 850 mb flow becomes more north to northeast oriented on the south end of a strong high pressure emerging out of central Canada. This draws a backdoor cold front through southeast Michigan early today bringing daytime highs down a notch to the upper 70s to 80 degrees for most of southeast Michigan. The exception will be on the shoreline areas of the Thumb and Bay County that will be in the low-mid 70s.
(Tonight through Wednesday night) A weak upper level trough is moving across TX. The low level pressure field is not well defined and winds across our CWA were light and variable. An upper ridge will push over the southern plains tonight.
The upper trough that brought clouds to the area yesterday has moved off to the east and northeast leaving us under sunny skies today, which will allow for slightly warmer temperatures this afternoon. That trend will continue into tomorrow with highs warming into the lower 90s in some locations, after lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s tonight. (Wednesday night through next Tuesday) Expect above normal temperatures and dry weather through this weekend as an upper level ridge and low level thermal ridge near by dominates the early October weather pattern.
Afternoon GOES Satellite imagery and RAP analysis reveal mostly clear skies overhead the UP save for some high clouds advecting in from the SE as the upper ridge axis slowly parks itself atop the Great Lakes. At the sfc, strong high pressure centering over James Bay is allowing breezy E flow across the Upper Peninsula. Tonight, temps fall to near 50 interior, a few degrees warmer near the lake shores. More of the same is expected tomorrow (Wednesday) as the ridge axis continues its slow eastward progression.
This thick cloud cover will keep temperatures in the lower to middle 70s across the mountains and the lower 80s in the lowlands today. Overnight temperatures will fall into the lower to middle 50s under a partly to mostly clear sky. High pressure will bring clear skies areawide Wednesday with a light northerly breeze.
Otherwise, tonight's lows will stay in the low to mid 60s with temperatures tomorrow running 2-3 degrees warmer than today's.
Otherwise, look for slightly drier and cooler air to advect into the forecast area as we finish up the week.
This is all made possible by two main factors: first, the high pressure centered over the midwest US and B) the two tropical systems off the Atlantic coast. (Wednesday Night through next Tuesday) As has been well-advertised, this quiet weather pattern looks like it's going to continue for several more days as high pressure maintains its grip over the region. Temperatures will remain 5 to 8 degrees above seasonal averages, but with the lower dew points, it should continue to be a comfortable warmth.
(This afternoon through Wednesday night) WV imagery this afternoon shows an upper trough moving into the ArklaTex, courtesy of weak ridging building into West Texas and Southeast New Mexico.
1155 AM CDT Tue Sep 30 2025 (Rest of Today and Tonight) With now Hurricane Imelda just off the coast of Florida, Georgia, and the Carolinas, the upper level trough will continue to be ingested by this system through midweek. The western portion of the trough will continue to influence the eastern portion of our area through this evening before shifting east on Wednesday. Additionally, a surface inverted trough looks to form over the Tennessee Valley today. As for temperatures, we'll see areas along and west of I-65 reach the mid to upper 80s this afternoon, with areas east of I-65 topping out in the lower to mid 80s. Lastly, expect low temperatures later tonight to dip into the lower to mid 60s.
- Dry slightly cooler weather is expected the remainder of the week. Currently increased cloudiness and a few isolated showers in the vicinity of the Appalachian mountains as enhanced moisture from Imelda merges with troughing over the eastern seaboard of the United States. The rest of the week looks to be pretty quiet weather-wise with broad ridging setting up which will lead to sunnier skies. Chattanooga Airport, TN 64 85 61 83 / 10 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 61 83 58 81 / 10 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 61 84 57 81 / 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 56 80 53 76 / 10 0 0 0.
Tonight, overnight lows will be slightly warmer, in the mid 50s to near 60 degrees as a warmer airmass remains locked in place. Heading into Wednesday, little overall change is expected, as the upper level high shifts overhead and subsidence maintain warming temperatures along with dry conditions.
An upper level ridge axis remains over the western Great Lakes this afternoon. Southerly winds on the west side of the ridge is pulling moisture from the Gulf northward for an impressive cloud shield spanning the eastern Great Plains. The trough will weaken and phase with the longer wave pattern aloft, but it will help nudge the ridge axis southeastward toward the Ohio River basin. Cloud cover is expected to increase as the trough moves closer.
Updated at 1052 AM CDT Tue Sep 30 2025 - High pressure will bring a continuation of dry weather through the upcoming weekend.
Temperatures will warm up a few degrees when compared to yesterday to near average as weak troughing continues to prevail across the region. Southerly to southwesterly winds around 10-20 mph with gusts up to 30 will remain in place across the Panhandles this afternoon as leeside low pressure tightens the surface pressure gradient over the Plains. Upper level ridging starts to develop tomorrow and WAA will occur in the lower levels bringing temperatures up into the mid to upper 80s with a few locations potentially hitting the 90s for tomorrow.
(Through tonight ) An upper level low passing across the area will contribute to partly to mostly cloudy conditions through this evening. High temperatures will peak in the low to mid 80s. Skies will clear out this evening allowing for somewhat cooler temperatures overnight, generally in the mid 50s to low 60s.
- Cooler, showery pattern continues through the week. A broad trough across the U. West Coast will keep southwest flow and a cooler air mass over the region. This weekend that broad trough off the west coast closes off as a cutoff low and moves into the western U. There is quite a lot of uncertainty about how far north or south the low will track, but that will have a big impact on the weather across the Northern Rockies. A more southerly track for the low, which the ensembles are leaning towards, means this area would be under a split flow pattern.
- Temperatures will gradually warm up over the next few days as high pressure builds over the Desert Southwest. - An area of low pressure will dive over the Great Basin late this/early this weekend, leading to breezy conditions and a decreases in temperatures. Current 500mb analysis reveals the Desert Southwest caught between two weather regimes, with broad troughing over the Pacific Northwest and building high pressure over Northern Mexico. Based on current global ensembles, the amplifying ridge will be the eventual winner of the battle of which system gets to influence our weather over the next few days, staving off a further advancement, at least for the time being, of the Pacific Low. Lower desert highs this afternoon and Wednesday will be generally in the lower to middle 90s which is right around normal for the end of September/beginning of October.
Upper level ridging along with broad high pressure continues to dominate the Midwest region.
The highest gusts is forecasted in the later afternoon/early evening hours today. /issued 346 AM PDT Tue Sep 30 2025/ Weather conditions across the area are much quieter than yesterday in the wake of the recent cold front. Temperatures are running a good 15 degrees cooler than 24 hours ago and are expected to top out in the upper 60s to mid 70s in most areas.
The upper trough that brought clouds to the area yesterday has moved off to the east and northeast leaving us under sunny skies today, which will allow for slightly warmer temperatures this afternoon. That trend will continue into tomorrow with highs warming into the lower 90s in some locations, after lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s tonight.
Last night's cold front, thunderstorms, and heavy rain (in Idaho) have moved out, leaving behind a cooler, moist, and still unstable air mass, with patchy fog in the valleys. Showers will continue across northern areas this evening as another, weakening, Pacific cold front passes through.
An unsettled weather pattern will continue to push into the area, with a low pressure embedded with a cold front moves further onshore. Regardless of amounts, a cooling trend is expected to persist with most of the highs dropping to the high 60s to low 70s by the end of the week. Some of the higher elevated populated areas is expected to only peak in the mid-60s.
207 PM EDT Tue Sep 30 2025 High pressure will remain in control through the weekend, continuing the dry stretch. The cooler conditions will continue through mid week, before an abrupt warming trend starts going into the weekend.
913 AM PDT Tue Sep 30 2025 A low pressure trough moving inland along the West Coast will bring cooling today, with coastal low clouds extending inland onto the lower coastal mountain slopes this morning as the marine layer deepens.
Stronger, Canadian high pressure will build across the eastern US mid to late week. * Sunshine returns with seasonable temps The lingering upper trough that has been parked over the region will finally shift south of the area late in the day. At the surface, high pressure over SE Canada will build south into the NE US and New England, leading to renewed sfc pressure rises across our area Wednesday evening into Wednesday night. Subsidence in the wake of the exiting trough should help to scatter out a broken veil of mid and high clouds allowing for sunshine during the afternoon commute. Lows 50 to 55, with some upper 40s possible in cooler outlying areas of the northern Piedmont.
1223 PM CDT Tue Sep 30 2025 Updated at 1223 PM CDT Tue Sep 30 2025 - High pressure will bring a continuation of dry weather through the upcoming weekend.
1148 AM CDT Tue Sep 30 2025 Updated at 1147 AM CDT Tue Sep 30 2025 - Warmer temperatures with dry weather conditions can be expected today through the upcoming weekend. (Today through Wednesday afternoon) An upper-level trough will move eastward across Oklahoma and into eastern portions of Texas today while upper-level ridging builds across southeast New Mexico and west Texas behind this departing feature. The upper-level ridge will continue to strengthen over our forecast area through Wednesday afternoon. Surface lee troughing will also take shape from eastern New Mexico into far west Texas through Wednesday. Temperatures will continue to trend warmer in the mid 80s to lower 90s over most of our region by Wednesday afternoon, with a few readings topping out in the mid 90s to near 100 degrees along the Rio Grande.
Our focus through the forecast is in the lower and middle levels as upper high pressure will remain for the most part.
109 PM EDT Tue Sep 30 2025 High pressure will guarantee fair dry weather through the entire week and into the coming weekend.
This will continue to keep us dry and warmer than normal. Dry weather and above normal temperatures will persist through the end of the week as the upper ridge holds over the Ohio Valley. By the weekend, a weak upper low over the southeastern US will retrograde westward over the southeast US and Deep south.
This afternoon, upper-level high pressure is centered off to our east across the Upper Mississippi River Valley. That said, morning soundings showed a substantial layer of dry air in the lower-levels. Otherwise, the high pressure to our east is helping to keep temperatures above normal, mainly in the 80s. Warmer and drier weather is the story for the remainder of the week. Each day, ridging dominates our weather pattern. While the current upper-level high pressure weakens and moves off to the east, a new ridge builds over the Great Plains in its place.
Upper level ridging over the Great Lakes is forecast to remain in place through the remainder of today and tonight. Skies will be mostly sunny and temperatures will be slightly above average for this time of year with highs in the lower to middle 80s. This is from 5 to 10 degrees warmer than average. Thanks to the warmer temperatures, relative humidities will be on the dry side from between 35 and 45 percent.
144 PM EDT Tue Sep 30 2025 High pressure to the north and the circulation around Tropical Storm Imelda will continue to bring a cool and moist northeast flow to the region through this evening.
Highs in the 80s with overnight lows in the lower 60s.
Dry Conditions and Above Normal Temperatures Upper level ridging is the primary player in the weather game across the Upper Midwest through the work week. The ridge axis resides over Wisconsin into northern Minnesota today and will shift eastward over the next few days. As it does, southerly flow will continue across the region, working alongside subsidence associated with the ridge, allowing for dry conditions and warm temperatures.
153 PM EDT Tue Sep 30 2025 High pressure pushing out of Canada today looks to become anchored into the Northeast. Key Messages: 1) Early morning fog west of the Blue Ridge will give way to clear skies for the entire region by mid morning Wednesday. This pattern will lead to early morning fog and low stratus, especially across areas west of the Blue Ridge; however, skies should clear areawide by the mid morning hours on Wednesday. Clear skies will allow for temperatures to climb into the low to mid 70s areawide, with mountain areas possibly seeing some upper 60s hang around.
1147 AM MDT Tue Sep 30 2025 - An approaching trough will result in increased cloud cover, along with some isolated mountain showers this afternoon, and scattered showers over northeast Utah this evening.
High pressure building along the Eastern Seaboard will gradually shift conditions back to near normal by the end of the week. High pressure over the Eastern Seaboard will slowly slide eastward into the western North Atlantic, with mainly gentle northwesterly breezes eventually veering to the northeast to east for the middle to latter part of the work week.
By that time, much of the low cloud cover will be scattering out, and we could see enough heating to support isolated to scattered showers and storms, with the best chances across north Georgia. Imelda will quickly move east out into the Atlantic, allowing a mid-level ridge over the Midwest to push the now-weakening troughing over the area southward. A much drier airmass will filter in behind this within the low to mid-level NE flow. Overall, Wednesday looks like it will be a very pleasant day, with mostly sunny skies, near zero rain chances, highs in the low to mid 80s, and a light northeast breeze.
124 PM PDT Tue Sep 30 2025 A low pressure trough moving inland along the West Coast will bring cooling today, with a deeper marine layer.
The upper level pattern remains fairly active with a trough to our east and west, a weak ridge to our north, and a couple of tropical system off the east coast. By Wednesday, Imelda is pushed out to sea as the series of upper troughs in place over the CONUS begin to nudge east. This will position a mid level ridge over the southeast. With that said, we will hold onto some low end rain chances across our southern areas on Wednesday as a weak mid to upper level low tracks along the northern Gulf coast.
120 PM EDT Tue Sep 30 2025 High pressure will guarantee fair dry weather through the entire week and into the coming weekend.
- With an upper ridge breaking down, there may be a couple chances for precipitation, the first one comes tonight. WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: An upper ridge that has kept a summer-like feel across the area lately with dry and above normal temperatures has been shifting east. A large upper low off the Pacific Northwest coast will gradually move inland but weaken by late in the week. Temperatures will slowly trend downward this week as a trough from the southwest moves in followed by a trough coming in from the northwest this weekend.
Through the rest of the afternoon, an upper level disturbance is forecast to move south on the backside of the upper level low currently situated over the carolinas.
Key message(s): - Breezy with diminishing showers this evening - Cooler and drier overnight Imelda has made the northeast turn today and will continue to move away from the coast. Some weak cold advection is expected though and expect low temperatures to be a bit cooler than this morning in the lower 60s.
617 PM CDT Tue Sep 30 2025 - High pressure aloft will keep a dry air mass in place through midweek with no chance for rain, very warm days, and mild nights.
628 PM CDT Tue Sep 30 2025 Our focus through the forecast is in the lower and middle levels as upper high pressure will remain for the most part.
Radar imagery shows a large swath of rain has moved onshore and up to the Cascade slopes as of early this afternoon as a cold front works its way through the region.
The high pressure over the Eastern Seaboard will slowly slide eastward into the western North Atlantic, with mainly gentle northwesterly breezes eventually veering to the northeast to east for the middle to latter part of the work week.
(This afternoon through Wednesday) A wild swing over the short term with an upper level ridge crashing into the three headed hydra that is Humberto, Imelda, and our cutoff low. As the two tropical systems shift northward and the upper level ridge moves over, flow strengthens out of the northeast driving drier air quickly across the region.
715 PM EDT Tue Sep 30 2025 High pressure pushing out of Canada looks to become anchored into the Northeast. Key Messages: 1) Early morning fog west of the Blue Ridge will give way to clear skies for the entire region by mid morning Wednesday. This pattern will lead to early morning fog and low stratus, especially across areas west of the Blue Ridge; however, skies should clear areawide by the mid morning hours on Wednesday. Clear skies will allow for temperatures to climb into the low to mid 70s areawide, with mountain areas possibly seeing some upper 60s hang around.
A surface cold front, facilitated by the loss of daytime heating, will push east to west off of Lake Huron this evening. The big change with the front will be the lowering of surface dewpoints into the 40s for the majority of Southeast Michigan. The strong mid-upper blocking ridge of 582-588 dam will remain the primary influence throughout the week and first half of the upcoming weekend.
- Dry slightly cooler weather is expected the remainder of the week. Currently increased cloudiness and a few isolated showers in the vicinity of the Appalachian mountains as enhanced moisture from Imelda merges with troughing over the eastern seaboard of the United States. The rest of the week looks to be pretty quiet weather-wise with broad ridging setting up which will lead to sunnier skies. Chattanooga Airport, TN 65 86 62 82 / 20 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 62 84 59 80 / 10 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 61 84 58 80 / 10 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 57 81 53 76 / 10 0 0 0.
PWAT's will slowly dip overnight as a result as surface ridging fills in the wake of Imelda's moisture plume.
623 PM CDT Tue Sep 30 2025 Updated at 612 PM CDT Tue Sep 30 2025 - High pressure will bring a continuation of dry weather through the upcoming weekend.
Lacy (Through tonight ) An upper level low passing across the area will contribute to partly to mostly cloudy conditions through this evening. High temperatures will peak in the low to mid 80s. Skies will clear out this evening allowing for somewhat cooler temperatures overnight, generally in the mid 50s to low 60s.
This vort max is rotating around the western periphery of a weak mid-level low pressure over North Carolina and the Mid-Atlantic region. Temperatures are currently on track to drop down into the low and middle 60s. As the 500mb ridge builds across the Ohio Valley to our north, an easterly to northeasterly flow will continue across Alabama and Georgia during the day on Wednesday.
High clouds associated with the passage of an upper level low are spreading across the region. As the low continues to shift eastward overnight, clouds should gradually decrease into tomorrow morning. Otherwise, look for slightly drier and cooler air to advect into the forecast area as we finish up the week.
645 PM EDT Tue Sep 30 2025 High pressure will guarantee fair dry weather through the entire week and into the coming weekend.
718 PM EDT Tue Sep 30 2025 High pressure will remain in control through the weekend, continuing the dry stretch. The cooler conditions will continue through mid week, before an abrupt warming trend starts going into the weekend.
High temps in the mid 70s across the higher terrain of the north and west and in the upper 70s to low 80s in the Central and Southern Valleys is several degrees above average for this time of year. A dry/backdoor cold front will drift south through Pennsylvania this afternoon and overnight, ushering in seasonably cooler and drier air on a steady, 5-10kt breeze from the N/NE. The cooler and drier low level flow from the N/NE will bring a noticeable cool down for Wednesday and Thursday.
Highs will easily climb into the lower to middle 90s with dewpoints falling into the lower and middle 50s each afternoon. The NBM has actually been a bit on the warmer side of the bias the last couple nights, so will opt to do a 60/40 blend of NBM operational and NBM 25th percentile.
An unsettled weather pattern will continue to push into the area, with a low pressure embedded with a cold front moves further onshore. Regardless of amounts, a cooling trend is expected to persist with most of the highs dropping to the high 60s to low 70s by the end of the week. Some of the higher elevated populated areas is expected to only peak in the mid-60s. The trough and cold front will continue for the next few days until eventually crossing over most of the area by Thursday afternoon/early evening. Weather starts to dry out as the trough continues to push east with ridging start to take place. There's a bit of disagreement between the Euro and GFS in how they want to handle the passing trough.
227 AM MDT Wed Oct 1 2025 - High pressure builds in today, bringing drier conditions and temperatures around 5 degrees above normal.
/NEW/ /Overnight through Wednesday Night/ Clear skies and light winds will continue overnight tonight and through the day Wednesday as mid level ridging slowly builds back into the Southern Plains. As such, we'll see a relatively cool morning tomorrow with temperatures in the low/mid 60s warming into the upper 80s and lower 90s by afternoon. Clear skies will continue into Wednesday night with lows in the low/mid 60s.
(Tonight through Thursday Night) Satellite imagery this evening shows high pressure situated over the area as Hurricanes Imelda and Humberto make their way east out into the Atlantic. With this high pressure in place, very quiet weather is still on tap through the short-term. Similar temperatures are in store for Thursday with high pressure still in place.
1222 AM CDT Wed Oct 1 2025 Dry conditions continue across Deep South Texas today into tomorrow as an expanding mid-level high pressure over northern Mexico maintains riding aloft.