Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
(Tonight through Wednesday night) Another breezy to windy and hot day across Deep South Texas, with the subtropical ridge beginning to weaken through the short term period. With the weakened ridge and a stalling front across Central Texas, any development upstream or along the Sierra Madre could get interesting on this side of the border.
The culprit responsible is a strengthening upper ridge, which is gradually nudging into the western states per latest moisture-channel imagery.
Highs today will generally be in the upper 80s across most of the area (low to mid 80s at the coast) and then slightly warmer (in the upper 80s to lower 90s inland and mid to upper 80s coastal) on Wednesday.
An upper level ridge over the southwest U. continues to strengthen midweek, keeping the drier weather as well as increasing warmer temperatures.
1010 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024 - 2 rounds of storms and showers this afternoon into the overnight hours ahead of a passing cold front with another low threat for strong-to-severe storms. An upper low evident on 1430z/930am water vapor imagery over northern Missouri will pivot northeastward. Given the enhanced lift provided by the low, showers and thunderstorms will become more numerous by peak heating: however, the overall severe weather risk will remain low. Given ample cloud cover and at least scattered thunderstorms, high temperatures will be a few degrees cooler than yesterday. only reaching the lower to middle 80s. The first and second rounds appear to blend together around midnight as the cold front enters the CWA from the west. Behind the cold front, we will see a short period of dry weather as a high pressure builds over the region.
The weak front will lift back north early Wednesday as strong cold front approaches from the west.
Upper level ridging extends across Florida and the Southeast this afternoon. As we move into the latter part of the week, a trough moving into the eastern half of the country will act to push the ridge axis to our south. The high pressure will remain solidly in place allowing temperatures to climb into the middle to upper 90s. Moisture remains high, meaning overnight lows will not cool down substantially, with most areas only falling into the lower to mid 70s. High pressure remains northeast of the region leading to light easterly flow and an on shore transition each afternoon for the next couple days. High pressure remains in control of the weather pattern leading to light easterly winds for today and tomorrow. The high pressure will shift south later this week turning our winds out of the west into this weekend.
1155 AM EDT Tue Jun 4 2024 Aside from an isolated afternoon thunderstorm across the higher terrain, dry conditions are expected today.
Following the low currently to our NE in Canada, NW flow and ridging will build in. Trailing energy from this low and a resultant 700 mb jet will move through this afternoon through Wednesday morning. 700 mb winds (50-70 kts) mixing down along with high pressure moving though will promote wind gusts up to 60 mph.
High pressure over the western Atlantic will maintain onshore flow through tonight, with the ridge axis located over north Florida. The highest chances will be along and inland from the Treasure Coast and areas west of Orlando.
326 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024 - 20-30% chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon/evening ahead of an incoming cold front.
1210 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024 (Today and tonight) Temperatures will be well above normal for much of West Central Texas today, as an 850 mb thermal ridge continues to build over our area. Temperatures will be a bit cooler to the east of the dry line, but moisture will be much higher, and heat indices could reach to near 108 in our southeastern counties.
1248 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024 - Scattered severe storms are possible along and ahead of a passing cold front this afternoon and evening today.
209 PM EDT Tue Jun 4 2024 Aside from an isolated afternoon thunderstorm across the higher terrain, dry conditions are expected today.
pdf Nearly stagnant flow will persist through today and tonight as high pressure situated to the northeast over the Atlantic gradually drifts eastward and high pressure over the gulf moves northward, making for a slightly more westerly upper level flow pattern going into Wednesday.
1232 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024 (Today through Wednesday night) The upper level pattern has begun its transition from zonal flow with perturbations each day into jet stream ridge development over the area. Moisture should be more limited this afternoon compared to previous days and is mostly restricted to the lower levels again.
1257 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024 - 2 rounds of storms and showers this afternoon into the overnight hours ahead of a passing cold front with another low threat for strong-to-severe storms. The first and second rounds appear to blend together around midnight as the cold front enters the CWA from the west. Behind the cold front, we will see a short period of dry weather as a high pressure builds over the region.
323 PM EDT Tue Jun 4 2024 - Dry tonight, showers/storms Wednesday - Cooler and unsettled through the weekend - Dry tonight, showers/storms Wednesday The 18z surface analysis showed a cold front near the Red River of the North and extending southward through western MN into northeast NE. This cold front will be a key to our weather Wednesday. However, CAMs suggest that more scattered convection will develop over portions of IL and southern WI later this evening and slowly move in our direction as the aforementioned cold front makes steady progress east.
1146 AM MDT Tue Jun 4 2024 - Breezy, dry, and a little cooler today.
126 PM EDT Tue Jun 4 2024 Aside from an isolated afternoon thunderstorm across the higher terrain, dry conditions are expected today.
A vigorous upper-level trough is moving through the northern Plains this afternoon, with a surface cold front moving east/southeast, extending from western Minnesota to northern Kansas early this afternoon. Eventually, a midlevel ridge in the western U. will progress into the Intermountain West, providing a more favorable track for ejecting perturbations riding the ridge southeastward into the Plains.
138 PM EDT Tue Jun 4 2024 South flow over the Ohio Valley will be found ahead of a cold front that crosses late Wednesday, along with increasing potential for showers and thunderstorms.
1047 AM MDT Tue Jun 4 2024 - Breezy, dry, and a little cooler today.
Hotter temperatures and mainly dry conditions are expected for the latter half of this week as high pressure builds over the Southwest. Besides for a few cumulus clouds bubbling over the high terrain this afternoon, much of the mid to upper-level cloud cover has cleared out as a high pressure ridge continues to position itself over much of the West coast and into the Great Basin.
Another quiet evening of weather is expected, due in part to high pressure remaining over the area. A few spots may fall briefly into the upper 60s, but tonight's forecast lows are just a couple of degrees warmer when compared to last night.
649 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024 - Isolated to scattered showers and storms expected this afternoon becoming more numerous Wednesday along a cold front.
955 PM EDT Tue Jun 4 2024 - Dry tonight, showers/storms Wednesday - Cooler and unsettled through the weekend Latest RAP shows a surge of higher PWATs over 1. Rain chances will be ramping up accordingly, although the higher/likely probabilities through sunrise should be limited to areas near and west of Highway 131. - Dry tonight, showers/storms Wednesday The 18z surface analysis showed a cold front near the Red River of the North and extending southward through western MN into northeast NE. This cold front will be a key to our weather Wednesday. However, CAMs suggest that more scattered convection will develop over portions of IL and southern WI later this evening and slowly move in our direction as the aforementioned cold front makes steady progress east.
1017 PM EDT Tue Jun 4 2024 A humid and unstable air mass will bring showers and thunderstorms on Wednesday when a cold front is forecast to cross the area from the west.
323 PM PDT Tue Jun 4 2024 An exiting system will lead to a ridge pattern building over the Pacific Northwest.
558 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024 - 20-30% chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon/evening ahead of an incoming cold front.
However, a warm front is lifting across the Midsouth tonight and a cold front will approach the region tomorrow afternoon.
Seasonably muggy conditions are being observed across the island chain, with temperatures generally in the lower to mid 80s and dew points in the lower 70s. An Atlantic pressure ridge will extend westward across the southeastern United States over the next couple of days. Thereafter, the ridge will shift southward across Florida, resulting in slackening and, at times, variable breezes.
858 PM EDT Tue Jun 4 2024 A weak front near the Albemarle Sound will lift north overnight while high pressure remains off the Southeast coast through Wednesday.
350 PM PDT Tue Jun 4 2024 An exiting system will lead to a ridge pattern building over the Pacific Northwest.
Temperatures start to warmup tomorrow as high pressure builds in. - Some of the hottest temperatures are expected late week with highs running 10-15 degrees above normal and triple digits likely for the lower desert valleys. Some clouds linger over the higher terrain this afternoon but with high pressure slowly moving in, clearing skies remain the rule heading into the evening hours and overnight. Tomorrow, high pressure continues to build in and will cause high temperatures to start increasing.
912 PM EDT Tue Jun 4 2024 - Dry tonight, showers/storms Wednesday - Cooler and unsettled through the weekend - Dry tonight, showers/storms Wednesday The 18z surface analysis showed a cold front near the Red River of the North and extending southward through western MN into northeast NE. This cold front will be a key to our weather Wednesday. However, CAMs suggest that more scattered convection will develop over portions of IL and southern WI later this evening and slowly move in our direction as the aforementioned cold front makes steady progress east.
748 PM EDT Tue Jun 4 2024 A humid and unstable southerly flow ahead of low pressure will bring chances for showers and thunderstorms tonight, with widespread showers and thunderstorms expected on Wednesday when a cold front is forecast to cross the area from the west.
We'll see temperatures drop down into the low-to-mid 50s overnight tonight. Rest of the Forecast: Our upper-level pattern transitions into a rex block pattern across the western CONUS, with a stationary ridge over the Inter-Mountain West setting up a northwesterly flow pattern across Nebraska and the Missouri River Valley.
648 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024 (Rest of today through Wednesday) A long wave trough is setting up over the Central US with the trough axis over North Dakota. Lapse rates are not great and 0-6 km shear is on the low side, overall the threat for strong storms is low but still can't rule out an isolated storm or two with gusty winds and some hail. The upper level trough will push east into the Great Lakes on Wednesday pushing a cold front into our region.
614 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024 (This afternoon through Wednesday night) Many places are well into the 90s and low 100s this afternoon and will "only" cool down into the low to mid 70s tonight. The weakness of the ridge may allow for a shower or two to develop over the higher terrain to the west, but amounts will be low overall.
615 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024 (Tonight through Wednesday night) Another breezy to windy and hot day across Deep South Texas, with the subtropical ridge beginning to weaken through the short term period. With the weakened ridge and a stalling front across Central Texas, any development upstream or along the Sierra Madre could get interesting on this side of the border.
High pressure at the surface will continue to build inland overnight and throughout the day Wednesday, allowing for conditions to dry out and warm up. A strong ridge will continue to build over much of the US through the remainder of the week, and while temperatures for much of the south will near record territory, conditions across western Washington are favored to stay well below records for now. A pattern change will result in high pressure building over the region through late this week, allowing temperatures to rise to above normal levels.
803 PM PDT Tue Jun 4 2024 Gusty west winds will gradually subside through the night as a cold front moves east of our region.
A slow moving upper level low pressure system brings cooler temperatures and more showers to the region starting Thursday, and continuing into the weekend. Most of the day should remain dry, but an approaching warm front from the south will kick off some scattered showers and thunderstorms late in the afternoon/early evening. Warm front continue moving into the area overnight and scattered showers/thunderstorms will continue.
(Today through Thursday) Moving through the day today we will see a cold front begin to work closer to the area, but will remain to our northwest through Thursday morning.
435 AM EDT Wed Jun 5 2024 Showers and thunderstorms will occur today ahead of a cold front crossing east through the region tonight with dry air found in it's wake.
244 AM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024 - A cold front is passing through central Illinois this morning, bringing showers and thunderstorms ahead of it. As the cold front approaches from the west this morning, some showers and thunderstorms push across central Illinois just ahead of it. There is secondary weak cold front that will pass through overnight, which could cause some showers to pop up in our far northern counties of the CWA. Once these fronts pass, a surface ridging pattern sets up to our southwest and a upper trough sets up to our northwest, trapping us in the middle.
As upper level troughing influences push eastward as tonight progresses and quasi zonal northwesterly flow aloft becomes increasingly established, and a surface cold front to our northwest moves southeastward into mid state region during overnight hours tonight, expecting best chances of showers and thunderstorms to shift eastward of I-65 Corridor Region as evening hours progress, with most convection limited to Cumberland Plateau Region by daybreak on Thursday. As dry northwesterly flow becomes a little more entrenched and a secondary now dry cold front approaches from the northwest, a seasonably warm day will be in store for our area with some showers and thunderstorms lingering through morning hours across Cumberland Plateau Region.
950 PM PDT Tue Jun 4 2024 Gusty west winds will gradually subside through the night as a cold front moves east of our region.
(Today and tonight) Triple digit heat goes on hiatus today following last evening's modest cold front. Despite this improved low-level moisture, hefty inhibition aloft and cooler highs today will keep surface parcels capped. Northwest flow aloft with some passing mid and high clouds dries out tonight as H5 height rises jump 60 meters in 24 hours ahead of an upper high settling over New Mexico after midnight.
Our southeastern counties could still see apparent temperatures approaching 105 this afternoon, due to the higher moisture.
Hotter temperatures and mainly dry conditions are expected for the latter half of this week as high pressure builds over the Southwest. Mostly clear skies this evening as high pressure sits just to the west. Besides for a few cumulus clouds bubbling over the high terrain this afternoon, much of the mid to upper-level cloud cover has cleared out as a high pressure ridge continues to position itself over much of the West coast and into the Great Basin.
We'll see temperatures drop down into the low-to-mid 50s overnight tonight. Rest of the Forecast: Our upper-level pattern transitions into a rex block pattern across the western CONUS, with a stationary ridge over the Inter-Mountain West setting up a northwesterly flow pattern across Nebraska and the Missouri River Valley. Wednesday - Thursday: Wednesday we see the development of the northwesterly flow pattern which will bring dew points down into the low 50s for Wednesday and 40s on Thursday. Highs on Wednesday will be a bit warmer in the mid-to-upper 80s as the ridge nudges in before the northwesterly winds really ramps up at the surface bringing in the milder temperatures on Thursday.
A cold front will move across the Southeast Thursday increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms. A cold front moving toward the region will aid in keeping the PWATs elevated ahead of it, allowing scattered showers and storms again in the afternoon and evening.
Nearly-stacked low pressure is analyzed over southeast Saskatchewan this afternoon. This low is forecast to slide into Manitoba through Wednesday as a strong upper jet/vort max digs underneath into North Dakota. Highs on Wednesday are forecast to reach the lower to mid 70s. The synoptic pattern will transition to northwest flow over the Northern Plains on Thursday as a trough digs into the Great Lakes region. Another day of strong northwest winds is likely across northern and eastern North Dakota as high pressure building upstream maintains a strong pressure gradient.
1210 AM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024 (Tonight through Wednesday night) Another breezy to windy and hot day across Deep South Texas, with the subtropical ridge beginning to weaken through the short term period. With the weakened ridge and a stalling front across Central Texas, any development upstream or along the Sierra Madre could get interesting on this side of the border.
1223 AM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024 (This afternoon through Wednesday night) Many places are well into the 90s and low 100s this afternoon and will "only" cool down into the low to mid 70s tonight. The weakness of the ridge may allow for a shower or two to develop over the higher terrain to the west, but amounts will be low overall.
Expect temperatures to climb into the low 80s today as the ridge begins to build into the area. On Thursday, the ridge builds into the region and winds look much lighter. With the ridge comes our first exposure to heat with near 90 degree temperatures possible over the next few days. Chances of hitting 90 degrees are only about 10% in the upper Snake Plain but increase to 40 to 50% across the lower Snake Plain and eastern Magic Valley. This ridge will bring with it a fair amount of moisture from the Pacific.
This activity should clear the area shortly after midnight, with cooler and drier air building in behind the front. A cooler and windy day is expected for Thursday, with highs generally in the mid to upper 60s.
While cooler & drier air behind the front will limit surface instability, cyclonic flow & the cooler temperatures aloft will create a classic "cold core" setup for convection tomorrow afternoon.
- Northwest winds bring cooler and drier air to southern Wisconsin for the second half of this week. Issued 1021 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024 Scattered thunderstorms will persist through at least early tonight ahead of an approaching cold front, likely gradually losing their strength through the night as instability decreases. This, in association with the cold front, will be the cause of convection through the afternoon in MN but the remnants of this convection will try to slide through in the late evening and overnight hours. Given some decent midlevel lapse rates and enough low level moisture behind the cold front we could expect a few weak storms and showers but nothing severe would be anticipated at this time.
Consensus shows isolated to scattered showers and storms across the area during the morning and early afternoon hours, with the highest chances later this afternoon into the evening hours.
(Today and tonight) A cold front will continue to push southward through the rest of Oklahoma and western north Texas today. Sometimes the wind shift and drier air never reaches the lower terrain of southeast Oklahoma.
The High Wind Warnings in the west are still in effect until noon MDT today, with gusts up to 65mph.
The passage of a weak cold front could spark a line of spotty showers and storms this afternoon and evening, according to the latest CAM runs. A high pressure system will set up over the southwestern CONUS, keeping drier northwesterly flow locked in over the Central Plains.
250 AM MDT Wed Jun 5 2024 KEY MESSAGES: - Gusty west to northwest winds through this evening - Dry and warmer weather through the end of the week WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: A departing low pressure system moving across central Saskatchewan and a strong jet stream pushing across the northern Rockies will sustain strong winds through today.
At present, the highest QPF values appear to be over SE OK and SW AR.
Mostly clear skies in place this morning with temperatures in the low to mid 70s and dewpoints in most areas, a bit more moist compared to yesterday morning. Meanwhile, ridge of high pressure is expected to start moving south today keeping light easterly winds that will shift west in the afternoon.
226 AM EDT Wed Jun 5 2024 A humid and unstable air mass will bring showers and thunderstorms on Wednesday when a cold front is forecast to cross the area from the west.
High pressure is to our southwest in Wyoming. A tight pressure gradient force and a weak cold front this afternoon will produce very strong west winds, especially in the southwest portion of the state of North Dakota. This is because the high pressure bubble will move west to east across the state, starting right now. Temperatures today will be below average again thanks to the northwest surface flow and the cold front already mentioned. Aloft the flow will turn northwest with a large ridge building around the Four Corners High pressure in the Southwest CONUS. This ridge will last through the weekend with no push of warm air to North Dakota by the thermal ridge. So, even though we will have ridging, the high temperatures everyday will stay at or below average through this weekend.
- Some of the hottest temperatures so far of the young summer season are expected Wednesday, as high pressure builds over SW KS.
Temps today will climb into the low 90s along the coast to around 105 out west. By Thursday, upper level ridging begins to build in, promoting rain-free conditions. The High Risk of Rip Currents will remain in effect through this evening.
318 AM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024 - Dry and hot conditions today, followed by a cooler airmass arriving on Thursday.
Light showers continue to track east this afternoon behind the cold front.
- Turning cooler starting Thursday with passing showers at times. However, better upper-level support arrives overnight into Wednesday morning out ahead of a mid- level trough that is currently moving out of the Central Plains. By late morning and through the remainder of the afternoon hours, storms will increase in intensity as they advance east out ahead and along a cold front marching across the area. Cooler temperatures and low rain shower chances (10-20%) each day. A few showers could clip KFWA toward daybreak, though chances remain on the low side. A cold front then swings through KSBN midday, and KFWA this afternoon, with additional rounds of showers/storms anticipated along it.
The highest chances are for areas inland as well as along and south of the I-4, so TEMPO groups were added to PGD/FMY/RSW.
Current surface analysis shows low pressure over southern Manitoba, with a trough/developing cold front wrapping around the low from western ND into eastern MT. Low pressure system to the north gradually moves east-southeast into the Great Lakes region late week, with building ridge over the west coast moving into the Rockies.
Temperatures are in the low 50s with winds out of the southwest at 5 to 10 mph.
249 AM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024 - This morning's cold front will continue to produce the potential for showers and thunderstorms through this morning.
/DL/ Storm chances will likely continue into Thursday as a cold front pushes south.