Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Upper-level troughing continues to traverse toward the eastern seaboard this afternoon while amplified ridging persists over the western CONUS. With our area residing just downstream of the ridge axis, weak cool air advection with a north-northwesterly flow aids in keeping today's highs in the low to mid 90s (which is near normal). Tomorrow's temperatures are expected to be slightly warmer as the robust heat dome out west subtlety meanders further east while the downstream low pressure system exits the overall synoptic picture over the next few days. Highs are forecast to be in the lower to mid 90s throughout the region tomorrow, with higher temperatures to be observed on Monday as the thermal ridge progressively builds in.
317 AM CDT Sun Aug 4 2024 - High temperatures are expected to climb into the lower to middle 90s today and Monday with afternoon heat index values ranging from 95 to around 100 degrees.
Temperatures will be on the warm side, due to the strength of the high, with light daytime southwesterly winds. The lower elevations of Yavapai County and the Grand Canyon and Glen Canyon areas will be most susceptible to the heat. ISO-SCT SHRA/TSRA through 12Z and then again 17Z-03Z especially over the higher terrain.
322 AM CDT Sun Aug 4 2024 Today and Tonight: The heat and humidity will be less oppressive arewide today thanks to a weak cold front that early morning surface analysis had stalled just south of our southeast most zones. 40in and surface dew points were running in the lower 70s at most locations. With e-w oriented surface ridging to our north and circulation around TS Debby, our low level flow will remain northeasterly through tonight and limit low level moisture return.
1229 AM CDT Sun Aug 4 2024 (Rest of tonight) With high pressure remaining dominant over the Tennessee Valley, a fairly uneventful forecast remains on track for the overnight hours as temperatures slowly fall below the 80 degree mark. With slightly lower humidity over the area, overnight lows will fall to the lower 70s to upper 60s under mostly clear skies.
Temperatures will be on the warm side, due to the strength of the high, with light daytime southwesterly winds. The lower elevations of Yavapai County and the Grand Canyon and Glen Canyon areas will be most susceptible to the heat. ISO-SCT SHRA/TSRA through 03Z and then again 17Z-00Z especially over the higher terrain.
With peak heating today, some of the latest hi-res model guidance is showing some isolated to scattered showers and storms with the highest coverage near the Edwards Plateau and Hill Country in closer proximity to the upper weakness. Otherwise, high temperatures today should top out in the middle 90s to near 103 degrees with the higher temperatures in the Rio Grande Plains.
Discussion: Upper trough axis is finally east of us today, with perhaps some slight increases in H5 heights overhead as we remain beneath weak flow aloft. Expect to see typical summertime cloud coverage by the early afternoon hours, with few to scattered, vertically limited CU over the lower elevations and perhaps a shower or two over the mountains where elevation will assist in getting parcels up to the LFC. For tonight, our CWA will remain beneath weak ridging aloft and well to the north of the circulation associated with Debby.
High pressure is centered over the Four Corners this morning and will remain there through at least midweek. The high may wobble a bit to the west before pushing back to the east over the course of the week.
545 AM EDT Sun Aug 4 2024 After a couple of morning showers east of Pittsburgh, mainly dry weather is expected today and tonight as high pressure builds in.
516 AM CDT Sun Aug 4 2024 - High temperatures are expected to climb into the lower to middle 90s today and Monday with afternoon heat index values ranging from 95 to around 100 degrees.
The cold front will sag south late Monday with cooler and drier air across the region. Convection will quickly dissipate following sunset, and it should be a somewhat cooler night with mainly 60s across the region. Monday will be more active as a more defined cold front descends southeast.
245 AM PDT Sun Aug 4 2024 Hot and dry weather will prevail through Monday under high pressure aloft.
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: The upper ridge that has brought the recent heat is being flattened with disturbances from the West coast. For the remainder of the week, increasing flow out of the northern Pacific and eventually the Arctic, will push the ridge back to the southwest, and bring much cooler temperatures into the region. With the stronger flow around the top of the ridge, moisture into the region will increase, along the with potential for showers and/or thunderstorms. Ensemble spread regarding the arctic trough dropping through central Canada increases past midweek.
940 AM CDT Sun Aug 4 2024 - Cooler week ahead with several rain chances. Our cooler airmass has arrived and will be with us the next 7 days. The Hudson Bay 500 mb low is moving east into northern Quebec but there is additiona 500 mb waves that will over time squash the 500 mb ridge over the Rockies a bit south and put the area in a zonal or west-northwest flow aloft. For Wed-Thu model agreement is is better for mid to late week than they were 24 hours in showing lowering 500 mb heights with an upper low dropping south into SE Sask/SW Manitoba.
406 AM CDT Sun Aug 4 2024 - Cooler week ahead with several rain chances. Our cooler airmass has arrived and will be with us the next 7 days. The Hudson Bay 500 mb low is moving east into northern Quebec but there is additiona 500 mb waves that will over time squash the 500 mb ridge over the Rockies a bit south and put the area in a zonal or west-northwest flow aloft. For Wed-Thu model agreement is is better for mid to late week than they were 24 hours in showing lowering 500 mb heights with an upper low dropping south into SE Sask/SW Manitoba.
540 AM MDT Sun Aug 4 2024 - The coverage of afternoon showers and thunderstorms increases today but still favors the higher terrain. - Daily afternoon showers and thunderstorms on the higher terrain continue throughout the new week. More moisture will lead to higher cloud cover and slightly cooler (but still above normal) temperatures today with scattered (valleys) to widespread (mountians) showers and storms. With cloud cover retreating and the center of high pressure building back over the Four Corners region, high temperatures will once again flirt with or exceed tipple digits in the valleys.
High pressure aloft to start the week with continued above normal temperatures and dry weather.
(Now through Monday) A broad upper trough will linger across the southeast today with a weak sfc boundary stalled across the area. A similar pattern expected on Monday will the highest POPs along and east of I-65. Highs today will be in the low to mid 90s and a heat advisory remains in effect today for portions of the area for heat index values of 108 to 110.
(Rest of Today) Current temps have rebounded into the lower 80s at many spots across the mid TN Valley this Sun morning, as an upper ridge pattern to the west nudges into parts of the region. This will translate into quiet/seasonably warm conditions later today, as highs climb predom into the lower/mid 90s, under mostly sunny skies. Max heat indices this afternoon may approach 100F in a few spots along/west of I-65, provided dew pts remain in the lower 90s.
633 AM CDT Sun Aug 4 2024 Today and Tonight: The heat and humidity will be less oppressive arewide today thanks to a weak cold front that early morning surface analysis had stalled just south of our southeast most zones. 40in and surface dew points were running in the lower 70s at most locations. With e-w oriented surface ridging to our north and circulation around TS Debby, our low level flow will remain northeasterly through tonight and limit low level moisture return.
615 AM CDT Sun Aug 4 2024 (Today through Monday) An upper level ridge will remain centered over the intermountain west through the period, continuing to support dry mid-level flow across the region.
Afternoon temperatures will trend warmer this weekend with major Heat Risk returning tot he San joaquin Valley.
A broad upper trough will linger across the southeast today with a weak sfc boundary stalled across the area. A similar pattern expected on Monday will the highest POPs along and east of I-65. Highs today will be in the low to mid 90s and a heat advisory remains in effect today for portions of the area for heat index values of 108 to 110.
An upper level ridge remains parked over the Four Corners region with a weak trough over the southeast Texas Coast. This weak trough will drift westward toward west central Texas over the next couple of days with a continued chance of afternoon showers and thunderstorms today.
Opting to keep a very wet and windy forecast through today, especially in the Lower Keys, but PoPs are virtually cut in half and winds return to more "normal" values for later tonight. The short-lived "cooler" temperatures as a result of TS Debby will trend warmer back into the lower 90s during the day, and the weather will return to a more summer-like state. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for all coastal waters west of the 7-Mile Bridge. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for all coastal waters between the 7-Mile Bridge and Channel 5 Bridge. A Small Craft Advisory is also in effect for all coastal waters east of the 7-Mile Bridge.
648 AM EDT Sun Aug 4 2024 - Light rain showers and possibly a rumble of thunder or two are possible today with a cold front moving through.
317 AM MDT Sun Aug 4 2024 - The coverage of afternoon showers and thunderstorms increases today but still favors the higher terrain. - Daily afternoon showers and thunderstorms on the higher terrain continue throughout the new week. More moisture will lead to higher cloud cover and slightly cooler (but still above normal) temperatures today with scattered (valleys) to widespread (mountians) showers and storms. With cloud cover retreating and the center of high pressure building back over the Four Corners region, high temperatures will once again flirt with or exceed tipple digits in the valleys.
Temperatures tomorrow will be a few degrees warmer compared to today, however, much of the region will remain below 100 degrees. Hernandez Previous Discussion: /Through Monday Afternoon/ An ill-defined cold front is now stretched from southwest to northeast across Central Texas. A few 100 degree readings will be possible around the Graham/Breckenridge area, however, the triple digits will be the exception. Tonight will remain fairly tranquil with temperatures in the lower to mid 70s throughout the region.
The upper high centered roughly over the Four Corners region was displaced far enough to our west yesterday, allowing storms to roll in from the north. Sunday into Monday however, this high should gradually build eastward back over the Plains. As the ridge grows its influence over the area on Monday, we look to start another brief warming trend.
656 AM CDT Sun Aug 4 2024 (Today) Tranquil weather across the Tennessee Valley early this morning with high pressure to the west continuing to nose into the area. Strong subsidence will promote mostly clear and calm conditions today and with ample sunshine, expect temperatures to rise into the low to mid 90s in most locations (a couple degrees higher than yesterday). Additionally, this ridge should squash any afternoon convection and have kept PoPs less than 5%.
Otherwise, high pressure expands westward to bring in a drying and warming trend for the week. * Strengthening high pressure across the region will notch up the temperatures to around 3-6 degrees above normal with highs in the upper 90s-near 100 for lower elevations and mid-upper 80s for Sierra communities. * Cooler temperatures are projected to arrive later this week as troughing across the Pac NW flattens the ridge across the Sierra and western NV.
929 AM EDT Sun Aug 4 2024 Weak high pressure will extend across the Ohio Valley today. This high will move east tonight into Monday.
652 AM CDT Sun Aug 4 2024 - Cooler week ahead with several rain chances. Our cooler airmass has arrived and will be with us the next 7 days. The Hudson Bay 500 mb low is moving east into northern Quebec but there is additiona 500 mb waves that will over time squash the 500 mb ridge over the Rockies a bit south and put the area in a zonal or west-northwest flow aloft. For Wed-Thu model agreement is is better for mid to late week than they were 24 hours in showing lowering 500 mb heights with an upper low dropping south into SE Sask/SW Manitoba.
/SAS/ Today and Tonight: The heat and humidity will be less oppressive arewide today thanks to a weak cold front that early morning surface analysis had stalled just south of our southeast most zones. 40in and surface dew points were running in the lower 70s at most locations. With e-w oriented surface ridging to our north and circulation around TS Debby, our low level flow will remain northeasterly through tonight and limit low level moisture return.
These precipitation chances today look to be the best chances for moisture for this entire week at this time as models show the CWA staying underneath a broadening upper air ridge through the week. * As forecast models project an upper air ridge to reside over the CWA through the week, the temperatures across the region look to be around 3-6 degrees above normal with highs in the upper 90s to near the 100 degree mark for lower elevations and the middle to upper 80s for Sierra communities.
High pressure will build back over the region on Monday. The ridge will shift slightly eastward on Monday afternoon, putting the Northern Rockies under southwesterly flow aloft.
(This evening through Monday) The polar jet was situated along the US/Canada border this afternoon with a dome of high pressure firmly situated over the southwestern quadrant of the CONUS. With the slightly increasing height field, we should see a bit warmer conditions tomorrow afternoon. We have seen 100 degree days as late as October 3 and temps +/- 3 degrees of 100F is what we'll expect on Monday--warmer east, cooler west.
Lows tonight range from the lower to mid 70s inland to the mid to upper 70s at the coast. Highs on Monday will tend to be in the mid 90s over the western half of the area and around 90 to the lower 90s over the eastern half.
Upper level ridging continues to be centered over the Rocky Mountain region. Afternoon temperatures are expected to be similar to those observed yesterday, if not a degree or so warmer.
The mid/upper level trough is working northeastward and out of the area today, with lingering showers this morning over the central mountains of Idaho.
(This evening through Monday night) High pressure is building back in full force over the southern plains today and Monday which will leave the panhandles high and dry. Weak southerly winds will do us no favors by slowly moving in warmer air into the region as well.
251 PM CDT Sun Aug 4 2024 - Hot in central and southern Iowa through Monday, then cooler the rest of the week - Shower/thunderstorms in northern Iowa tonight into Monday.
- Cooler the remainder of the week, near to a bit below average.
Discussion: In the upper levels, a ridge is over the Rockies/Great Plains and a trough is over New England/Great Lakes tonight and tomorrow. Showers and thunderstorms will return tomorrow afternoon but will be mainly confined to the higher elevations of the East Tennessee Mountains and North Carolina counties.
Today will be dry for most of the region with only a slight chance of showers and storms in the higher elevations of the East Tennessee Mountains and North Carolina counties. Warmer today with clearing clouds this afternoon. Discussion: Upper trough axis is finally east of us today, with perhaps some slight increases in H5 heights overhead as we remain beneath weak flow aloft. Expect to see typical summertime cloud coverage by the early afternoon hours, with few to scattered, vertically limited CU over the lower elevations and perhaps a shower or two over the mountains where elevation will assist in getting parcels up to the LFC. For tonight, our CWA will remain beneath weak ridging aloft and well to the north of the circulation associated with Debby.
1259 PM EDT Sun Aug 4 2024 - Light rain showers and possibly a rumble of thunder or two are possible today with a cold front moving through.
1150 AM CDT Sun Aug 4 2024 (Rest of Today) Current temps have rebounded into the lower 80s at many spots across the mid TN Valley this Sun morning, as an upper ridge pattern to the west nudges into parts of the region. This will translate into quiet/seasonably warm conditions later today, as highs climb predom into the lower/mid 90s, under mostly sunny skies. Max heat indices this afternoon may approach 100F in a few spots along/west of I-65, provided dew pts remain in the lower 90s.
1208 PM CDT Sun Aug 4 2024 (Today through Monday) An upper level ridge will remain centered over the intermountain west through the period, continuing to support dry mid-level flow across the region.
With Tropical Storm Debby well to our north now, the Tropical Storm Warning in the waters west of the 7-mile Bridge have been removed and replaced with Small Craft Advisories. The Wind Advisory and the Coastal Flood Advisory has also been cancelled as these south to southwesterly winds have trended downwards and the highest tide of the day has passed. The two steering mechanisms, an upper trough dipping across the Southeast and an expansive high in the North Atlantic, will actually work against each other and hinder TS Debby from quickly jutting up the East Coast.
Overnight lows will be mild again, ranging from the lower 70s in the Hill Country to the lower 80s along the Rio Grande. For Monday, we will keep the forecast dry along with highs in the lower 90s to near 102 degrees.
High winds and heavy rainfall amounts will impact much of the Florida Peninsula, but the highest winds and heaviest rainfall amounts will be focused closer to the coast.
140 PM PDT Sun Aug 4 2024 Hot and dry weather will prevail through Monday under high pressure aloft.
The upper level trough departed east, loosing its influence over the local weather. Plenty of sunshine will allow afternoon temperatures to reach the lower 90s across the lowlands, ranging into the lower 70s across the northeast mountains.
147 PM EDT Sun Aug 4 2024 Weak high pressure will extend across the Ohio Valley today. This high will move east tonight into Monday.
259 PM CDT Sun Aug 4 2024 Tonight and tomorrow: Quiet conditions will continue through the short term period with a dry airmass and building high pressure. An upper ridge to the west as well as tropical cyclone Debby to the east will serve to reinforce this pattern. As tropical cyclone Debby approaches the Florida coast tonight, some high clouds stream across the area, especially further south. Tomorrow, upper ridging further builds aloft, perhaps locally enhanced by Debby as it makes landfall in Florida. Temperatures should warm into the upper 90s across the area, while low level moisture from Debby's approach should allow dewpoints to hold in the low to mid 70s.
With upper-level ridging aloft, mostly clear skies to prevail. Overnight lows are forecast to fall into the low to mid 70s areawide. Afternoon high temperatures will be slightly warmer, in the mid to upper 90s areawide. On Monday night, stable conditions to persist with overnight lows in the low to mid 70s.
The mid-level ridge is set to build/expand over the region to start off the week.
An upper level ridge remains parked over the Four Corners region with a weak trough over the southeast Texas Coast. This weak trough will drift westward toward west central Texas over the next couple of days with a continued chance of afternoon showers and thunderstorms today. (Monday night through next Sunday) A strong upper level ridge will bring dry weather to the region this week, while a continually warming air mass in the low levels will create significant heat by mid week.
Looking at the models, ridging will be in place over the next few days.
1245 PM CDT Sun Aug 4 2024 Surface and upper-level ridge prevailing across the region will maintain hot and dry conditions areawide through the remainder of the day. With cooler dewpoint values in the upper 60s to lower 70s, heat index values will remain below advisory criteria of 105 degrees this afternoon. However, locations with dewpoints in the lower 70s across north Louisiana and Deep East Texas will experience heat index values nearing 105 degrees.
For the first time in awhile, dry weather will be advertised throughout the near term forecast period under the influence of building high pressure. Afternoon highs both today and Monday will return to the low 90s across much of the lowlands, with humidity levels looking to steadily climb throughout the upcoming days.
As we go into tomorrow, the ridge will start building east and surface winds will become more organized from the southeast. (Monday night through next Sunday) A strong upper level ridge will bring dry weather to the region this week, while a continually warming air mass in the low levels will create significant heat by mid week.
(Tonight through Monday night) Mid-level high pressure will remain centered over the Four Corners/Intermountain West region of the U.
1028 AM CDT Sun Aug 4 2024 Surface and upper-level ridge prevailing across the region will maintain hot and dry conditions areawide through the remainder of the day. With cooler dewpoint values in the upper 60s to lower 70s, heat index values will remain below advisory criteria of 105 degrees this afternoon. However, locations with dewpoints in the lower 70s across north Louisiana and Deep East Texas will experience heat index values nearing 105 degrees.
(Tonight) Little change in the overall pattern is expected across the mid TN Valley tonight, as lingering cloud cover diminishes allowing temps into early Mon to fall predom into the lower/mid 70s.
934 AM PDT Sun Aug 4 2024 Hot and dry weather will prevail through Monday under high pressure aloft.
HREF/CAMs are indicating a fairly typical early August monsoon day with scattered showers and thunderstorms, initially developing across the higher terrain from Tucson eastward and then nudging westward, with valley development assisted by outflows.
244 PM EDT Sun Aug 4 2024 Weak high pressure will build over the area tonight and early Monday.
The strength of the high pressure center is also a limiting factor for stronger storm development, especially for the northern zones.
1129 AM MDT Sun Aug 4 2024 - The coverage of afternoon showers and thunderstorms increases today but still favors the higher terrain. - Daily afternoon showers and thunderstorms on the higher terrain continue throughout the new week. More moisture will lead to higher cloud cover and slightly cooler (but still above normal) temperatures today with scattered (valleys) to widespread (mountians) showers and storms. With cloud cover retreating and the center of high pressure building back over the Four Corners region, high temperatures will once again flirt with or exceed tipple digits in the valleys.
(This afternoon through Monday night) WV imagery shows the upper ridge ENE of the Four Corners this afternoon, resulting in northeast flow aloft over West texas and Southeast New Mexico. This is augmented by an inverted trough moving into the area from central Texas, the net result of which will be decreased thicknesses and a "cool" afternoon, with highs averaging only 4-5 F above normal. Inverted troughs tend to oversell precip in these parts, but boundaries do not. Monday, the inverted trough is forecast to be over the Big Bend Area, resulting in a nadir of thicknesses for this forecast. Monday night looks dry on the backside of the trough.
The strength of the high pressure center is also a limiting factor for stronger storm development, especially for the northern zones. SCT SHRA/TSRA through 03Z, especially over the higher terrain.