Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Updated at 1245 AM PDT Sat Oct 4 2025 - Warmer and drier conditions through mid week. The gradient between this low pressure and building high pressure over the subtropical Eastern Pacific will support moderate N-NW winds along the coast and NW-SE oriented valleys. The marine layer will gradually recover today as warmer, drier air moves over the stable pool of cool air near the surface.
Expect dry and cooler weather this weekend, with breezy conditions today. A vigorous upper low is centered near Las Vegas early this morning, and is forecast to lift northeastward into Wyoming by this afternoon. The passage of the trough will usher in cooler air today, with high temperatures around 5 degrees below average for early October. The approach of the low has also kept gusty southwest winds going overnight, with gusts 25-35 over the higher elevations from the Mogollon Rim northward.
625 AM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025 An upper level trough has organized over the north-central and northeastern Gulf coast.
Considerable HREF probability of ceilings less than 2,000 and 1,000 feet are fairly well removed from the terminal vicinities, mostly over the higher terrain Saturday morning, so any stratus near the BDN and RDM terminals will lean VFR to MVFR. Partial clearing of upslope stratus across central and eastern Oregon should facilitate some chilly overnight lows for climatologically cold-prone locations of central Oregon and the high valleys of the Blue Mountains.
- Cold front arrives Sunday night, with scattered thunderstorms favoring the northeast zones.
A seasonably weak and weakening cold front will be the dominant driver of our weather today into early Sunday.
However, radar returns are a lot weaker than earlier this morning and think the overall activity will continue to dissipate as the low level jet weakens.
Scattered showers with cooler conditions continue through Saturday evening.
Outside of those thunderstorms, garden variety showers are impacting portions of the Lower and Middle Keys. GOES-19 satelitte imagery displays that while the Lower and Middle Keys are cloudy, the Upper Keys are in a mostly sunny skies. From synopsis, a weak area of low pressure located near the central and northwestern Bahamas will act to weaken the pressure gradient briefly across the Florida Keys. As it lifts north and northwest of the Keys, high pressure across the Atlantic will build back in resulting in freshening northeast to east breezes.
Ceilings will lift late this evening as high pressure moves in behind the departing system. Partial clearing of upslope stratus across central and eastern Oregon should facilitate some chilly overnight lows for climatologically cold-prone locations of central Oregon and the high valleys of the Blue Mountains.
Clouds continue streaming northeastward across SE portions of the CWFA as a result from the decaying upper low in the Northern Gulf. It's a beautiful start to this early October Saturday morning across the TN Valley with temps in the lower to middle 70s at this hour. Clear skies and dry conditions abound this morning thanks to high pressure at the surface anchored over the Virginias, and much of the same is expected for the rest of the day today. Daytime highs will top out in the lower 80s once again. An upper low over the Gulf will slowly meander northward as it dissipates and becomes absorbed by an incoming trof to the west tomorrow.
230 PM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025 - A few stronger storms possible across north-central KS Sunday evening along a slow moving cold front.
Water vapor imagery shows a trough over the Great Basin centered to the north and broad high pressure over the southeastern U. For today the trough will lead to elevated winds with gusts 25-40 mph. Current observations show the highest gust at ALK with a speed of 36 mph.
Strong southerly flow aloft ahead of a low pressure sitting in the western Dakotas will continue to cause much warmer than average temperatures across the Northland.
Satellite and radar imagery show split flow trough in place over East Idaho with widespread shower activity but only a few lightning strikes so far. 25" at the high end of precipitation estimates, especially over higher terrain. There is still potential for a few inches of snow at ridge top level.
Updated at 1245 PM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025 - Moderate risk of rip currents along the Lower Texas beaches through at least Sunday evening.
1212 PM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025 - Strong high pressure will keep the weekend warm/dry.
Outside of those thunderstorms, garden variety showers are impacting portions of the Lower and Middle Keys. GOES-19 satelitte imagery displays that while the Lower and Middle Keys are cloudy, the Upper Keys are in a mostly sunny skies. The aforementioned area of low pressure near the Bahamas is expected to drift west-northwestward across the northwestern Bahamas and toward southern Florida during the next couple of days. Strong upper-level winds are expected to prevent significant development of the low.
North Bend and Roseburg will both likely see the lower ceilings (IFR/LIFR) return this evening or overnight, but low-level NE winds will develop and this may cause some of these ceilings to erode early Sunday morning. A seasonably weak and weakening cold front will be the dominant driver of our weather today into early Sunday.
Closer to Florida, a pair of weak low pressure centers is located along a frontal boundary extending over south Florida and into the northern gulf. The first one to our east is a weak area of low pressure near the Bahamas. A little farther to the west, another area of weak low pressure is located in the north central gulf. A tight pressure gradient between the high pressure to the north and these areas of low pressure will produce persistent breezy east-northeast winds through the remainder of the weekend.
142 PM MDT Sat Oct 4 2025 KEY MESSAGES: - Snow for the higher terrain tonight and Sunday, especially around Glacier National Park.
High pressure is centered just off of the VA coast extending WSW-ward into E Conus with ERLY flow into AL today. Winds will continue to be a bit gusty at times with a tighter surface pressure gradients around the ridge.
Much cooler temperatures with mostly dry conditions and lighter winds are still anticipated tomorrow.
359 PM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025 - Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) severe storms Sunday evening along and just ahead of a strong cold front.
1245 PM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025 An upper level trough has organized over the north-central and northeastern Gulf coast.
This increase was likely driven by an upper level trough across the Gulf and associated reflection through the lower levels and surface. The Gulf trough is expected to shift northwestward towards the Texas coast and help to pull the best lower level confluence further away from the Keys. Meanwhile, the trough over the Bahamas will ease a bit further northwestward towards the Keys and South Florida. This along with the approaching inverted trough and upstream radar trends justifies holding high chance PoPs. The combination of strong high pressure over the eastern United States and adjacent Atlantic, and an inverted trough over the Bahamas is resulting in gentle to moderate broadly easterly breezes on Keys waters. The trough will shift a bit closer to the Keys through the overnight and should result in winds relaxing and veering southeasterly with some variability.
549 PM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025 - Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) severe storms Sunday evening along and just ahead of a strong cold front.
452 PM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025 Updated at 421 PM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025 - High risk of rip currents along the Lower Texas beaches through Sunday morning.
621 PM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025 Updated at 617 PM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025 - High risk of rip currents along the Lower Texas beaches through Sunday morning.
The next significant chance of rain comes mid-week as a cold front sweeps through the forecast area, followed by a reinforcing shot of cooler and dry air. The increasing moisture overnight as this trough begins to lift northeast will keep overnight temps in the mid 60's, a bit warmer than the previous few nights.
- Warmer than average temperatures persist through midweek with seasonable temperatures returning post-front. Tomorrow will see the weak gulf low track eastward and absorb into the overall troughing which should allow for a push of moisture from the south as early as early to late morning.
Showers have decreased this evening as the upper low progresses east through Wyoming. Winds are not anticipated to be as strong Sunday once distanced from the low, but afternoon gusts to 20-30 mph will be frequent in the Snake Plain and portions of east-central Oregon.
645 PM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025 - A few stronger storms possible across north-central KS Sunday evening along a slow moving cold front.
635 PM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025 - Strong high pressure will keep the weekend warm/dry.
1254 AM EDT Sun Oct 5 2025 High pressure dominates and continues the dry weather pattern with above normal temperatures across the region through Monday.
" Daily low (20-40%) shower and thunderstorm chances will continue through this work week, with overall moisture slightly above normal interacting with a weak coastal trough today and Monday, then mainly driven by surface heating and the afternoon seabreeze thereafter. There is model disagreement in the mid-level flow late in the week, regarding the position of a strong mid-level ridge either over the SW CONUS (GFS) or southern CONUS (ECMWF/CMC) and the progression of a mid-level low/trough across the Midwest. Temperatures will continue to run above normal with highs in the low to mid 90s and lows from the upper 60s to mid 70s.
Rain chances will return across portions of the region by this afternoon in association with an area of low pressure that has been lingering in the northern Gulf near the Louisiana coast over the past few days.
- Much cooler temperatures settle into the area with highs falling to the 50s for all by Monday.
- Cold front will bring rain chance Monday and especially Monday night, followed by more seasonable temperature for the rest of the upcoming work week. Our stretch of unseasonably warm and dry conditions will continue through Monday before cooler weather arrives following a cold frontal passage Monday night. The weather pattern will begin to transition on Monday as an upper trough slides eastward into the upper Mississippi Valley and western Great Lakes late Monday and Monday night. As it does, an associated surface cold front will shift southward into far northern IL by late Monday afternoon.
145 AM EDT Sun Oct 5 2025 High pressure off the Atlantic coast will continue to shift to the east as a cold front approaches North Carolina mid-week. High pressure is currently centered offshore over the Atlantic with ridging back across the southeastern United States, shifting slightly to the east over the next 24 hours.
At the same time, a series of weak easterly undulations will round the base of a broad ridge that extends from the Mississippi Valley to the central Atlantic. Earlier indications were that we would see the broad high build equatorward across the Keys, but the high looks to stay further north. As a result, while we will be under the influence of the high, we are not expecting freshening easterly breezes for the later half of the forecast period at this time. Boaters can expect less clearance under fixed bridges. From synopsis: a combination of a stationary frontal boundary and a weak area of low pressure situated near the Bahamas will make for a messy weather pattern through the next several days.
347 AM EDT Sun Oct 5 2025 High pressure will linger through today before slowly drifting off the East Coast by Monday night.
126 AM EDT Sun Oct 5 2025 Tranquil weather prevails through Monday courtesy of high pressure.
206 AM EDT Sun Oct 5 2025 High pressure will remain in control of the region's weather through Monday providing mostly clear skies and temperatures climbing well above normal.
234 AM EDT Sun Oct 5 2025 Tranquil weather prevails through Monday courtesy of high pressure.
1238 AM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025 A weak mid-level low pressure will maintain non-zero (albeit low, less than 20%) chances of rain through Monday along the coast.
1152 PM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025 - Strong high pressure will keep the weekend warm/dry.
- Above average October warmth continues with minor (10-20%) rain chances early to midweek (Today through Monday) A quiet but warm weather pattern will remain across South-Central Texas as the region is in-between troughing over the Intermountain west and a weak upper level low off the Louisiana coast that looks to drift northward and weaken into the background flow by early Monday. The temperatures stay above average with the afternoon highs ranging from the mid to upper 80s for portions of the Hill Country to the low to mid 90s elsewhere. The morning lows will range from the low 60s to near 70 degrees.
129 AM EDT Sun Oct 5 2025 High pressure will linger through today before slowly drifting off the East Coast by Monday night.
As the upper trough exits to the east tonight, skies clear out for Sunday.
- Cooler highs in the 60s and 70s this week. A quick look at the surface maps shows a tight pressure gradient setting up across Iowa with high pressure to the east and low pressure to the west.
255 AM MDT Sun Oct 5 2025 KEY MESSAGES: - Snow for the higher terrain this morning, especially around Glacier National Park.
Early morning low temperatures today and Monday will produce some freezing temperatures in the high country, check your local forecast for details. Expect fair and gradually warmer afternoons through mid week, then a chance for showers returns by late week. Low pressure that brought windy conditions the past couple days has moved off into the northern plains this morning, leaving behind a drier and cooler air mass. A period of pleasant fall weather is in store for the next several days, as lighter southwesterly flow develops between a ridge to our southeast and troughing off the west coast. Overnight lows will be a few degrees colder than average for early October, reaching near or just below freezing for some of the higher elevations above 6500 feet and even into the upper 30s for places like Winslow and St Johns.
210 AM EDT Sun Oct 5 2025 High pressure will remain in control through early in the week.
141 AM EDT Sun Oct 5 2025 - Warmth gives way to increasing chance of rain by late Monday - Frost/Freeze conditions for mid-week - Warmth gives way to increasing chance of rain by late Monday Upper ridging and southwest flow persists today into Monday with 850 mb temps around 15-16C and highs in the 80s. Height falls occur on Monday as low level moisture return increases ahead of an advancing western CONUS trough, with deep moisture streaming up from the Gulf.
A secondary trough of low pressure will pass through the region today.
(Today through Monday) Central Alabama is at the southwestern periphery of a ridge centered off the East Coast, with easterly surface winds and southeasterly mid-level flow over Alabama. Highs should be in the upper 70s across the east to the low 80s in most places. 80, with the lowest chances north of I-20.
By the middle of the week high pressure will begin to retrograde westward across the deep south leading to some drying of conditions across the area.
The first round of precipitation from the large-scale trough is shifting east this morning, leaving behind a nice coating of snow across area passes and higher elevations. There will be a brief gap in most precip this morning before the next round sweeps in on the back side of the trough from the northwest. Models have held on to cloud cover longer overnight, so confidence in overall coverage of freezing temperatures is lower.
223 AM EDT Sun Oct 5 2025 High pressure dominates and continues the dry weather pattern with well above normal temperatures across the region through Monday.
Not anticipating temperatures to cool much more through this morning, as dew points are in the lower 60s for most locations. Previous Discussion: A troughing west and ridging east upper pattern continued over the greater CONUS. Even with upper ridging in place over the east coast, a weak upper level low spinning south of AL/FL was spreading clouds over parts of the SE states, with a few showers (mainly over the Gulf of America). More inland from the Gulf coast (say Birmingham and northward), it was too dry in the low/mid troposphere to support shower activity at this time. A weak area of low pressure trying to form south of the TX/LA coast should remain over that portion of the Gulf into late tonight. High temperatures should rise into the low/mid 80s, with SE winds of 5-15 mph in the afternoon.
- Cold front will bring rain chance Monday and especially Monday night, followed by more seasonable temperature for the rest of the upcoming work week. Our stretch of unseasonably warm and dry conditions will continue through Monday before more seasonable temperatures arrive following a cold frontal passage Monday night. The weather pattern will begin to transition on Monday as an upper trough slides eastward into the upper Mississippi Valley and western Great Lakes late Monday and Monday night. As it does, an associated surface cold front will move southward into far northern IL by late Monday afternoon.
122 AM EDT Sun Oct 5 2025 High pressure will maintain dry and seasonal weather over the region today.
-Cooler air from the north returns average temperatures to the Great Lakes region this week with overnight frost potential. Midlevel pattern set up remains similar to yesterday as longwave ridging slowly shifts eastward today. Mostly clear skies (besides afternoon cumulus field development) will push daytime highs in the low to mid 80s across the majority of the region. Lows are expected to remain in the low 60s which ironically is the climatologically normal values for highs across the region this time of year.
102 AM EDT Sun Oct 5 2025 High pressure will linger through today before slowly drifting off the East Coast by Monday night.
* Weather at the end of the week may become wet and unsettled as a tropical system interacts with an upper-level trough moving into the West Coast.
* Weather at the end of the week may become wet and unsettled as a tropical system interacts with an upper-level trough moving into the area.
Updated at 1020 PM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025 - High risk of rip currents along the Lower Texas beaches through Sunday morning, Moderate risk for the remainder of the weekend. A weak mid-level low pressure will maintain non-zero (albeit low, less than 20%) chances of rain through Monday along the coast.
- Freezing temperatures tonight and Monday morning.
149 AM EDT Sun Oct 5 2025 High pressure will remain in control of the region's weather through Monday providing mostly clear skies and temperatures climbing well above normal.
High pressure will build in overhead over the course of the week, reducing rain chances for most of the area. 0ft above MLLW, minor low lying streets may begin on the West End of Galveston, Highway 124 between High Island and FM-1985 may begin to flood, and the lowest streets in Jamaica Beach may be begin to flood.
1220 AM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025 - A few stronger storms possible across north-central KS Sunday evening along a slow moving cold front.
1110 PM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025 - Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) severe storms Sunday evening along and just ahead of a strong cold front.
435 AM EDT Sun Oct 5 2025 High pressure will remain in control through early in the week.
Replacing it will be a high pressure ridge, but as we transition between the two, cool northerly flow will prevail over the forecast area heading into Monday.
728 AM EDT Sun Oct 5 2025 High pressure will remain in control through early in the week.
High pressures will bring dry and mild weather through early this week. Expect cooler and cloudier weather by midweek with stronger onshore flow. Low pressure will spin offshore over the latter half of the week then shift inland over the weekend.
615 AM EDT Sun Oct 5 2025 Tranquil weather prevails through Monday courtesy of high pressure.
735 AM EDT Sun Oct 5 2025 - Warmth gives way to increasing chance of rain by late Monday - Frost/Freeze conditions for mid-week - Warmth gives way to increasing chance of rain by late Monday Upper ridging and southwest flow persists today into Monday with 850 mb temps around 14-15C and highs in the 80s. Height falls occur on Monday as low level moisture return increases ahead of an advancing western CONUS trough, with deep moisture streaming up from the Gulf.
308 AM MDT Sun Oct 5 2025 - A bit cooler and dry today, COLDER and cloudier on Monday.
725 AM EDT Sun Oct 5 2025 High pressure will linger through today before slowly drifting off the East Coast by Monday night.
841 AM MDT Sun Oct 5 2025 - A bit cooler and dry today, COLDER and cloudier on Monday.
527 AM MDT Sun Oct 5 2025 - A bit cooler and dry today, COLDER and cloudier on Monday.
621 AM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025 A weak mid-level low pressure will maintain non-zero (albeit low, less than 20%) chances of rain through Monday along the coast.
- High temperatures will be cooler with below normal readings today but should rebound to near normal values Monday and above normal highs by mid week. Temperatures today will be cooler with highs around 5 degrees below normal on average with cooler temps of up to 10 degrees below normal across the north. Temperatures will warm to near normal levels by Monday as the trough lifts out of the region. Monday night will see longwave troughing over the Intermountain West, with a few light showers lingering over the Colorado Divide.
650 AM MDT Sun Oct 5 2025 - Much colder air surges south across the area today behind an early morning cold front with gusty north winds. - Warmer and drier conditions return for the week ahead. While snow will likely not impact roads or accumulate at elevations this low, it may bring a period of lower visibility.
657 AM EDT Sun Oct 5 2025 High pressure dominates and continues the dry weather pattern with well above normal temperatures across the region through Monday.
322 AM MDT Sun Oct 5 2025 - Much colder air surges south across the area today behind an early morning cold front with gusty north winds. - Warmer and drier conditions return for the week ahead. While snow will likely not impact roads or accumulate at elevations this low, it may bring a period of lower visibility. Breezy north winds bringing in cold air will allow for some snow to mix down to the lower elevations Sunday morning.
625 AM EDT Sun Oct 5 2025 High pressure will maintain dry and seasonal weather over the region today.
- Much colder air surges south across the area today behind an early morning cold front with gusty north winds. - Warmer and drier conditions return for the week ahead. While snow will likely not impact roads or accumulate at elevations this low, it may bring a period of lower visibility.
654 AM EDT Sun Oct 5 2025 High pressure will remain in control of the region's weather through Monday providing mostly clear skies and temperatures climbing well above normal.
1051 AM EDT Sun Oct 5 2025 High pressure will remain in control through early in the week.
636 AM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025 (Today through Monday) Central Alabama is at the southwestern periphery of a ridge centered off the East Coast, with easterly surface winds and southeasterly mid-level flow over Alabama. Highs should be in the upper 70s across the east to the low 80s in most places. 80, with the lowest chances north of I-20.
645 AM EDT Sun Oct 5 2025 High pressure off the Atlantic coast will continue to shift to the east as a cold front approaches North Carolina mid-week. High pressure is currently centered offshore over the Atlantic with ridging back across the southeastern United States, shifting slightly to the east over the next 24 hours.