Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
High temperatures today are returning to average across the CWA as some weak ridging builds in on the heals of the powerful trough drifting eastwards across North America.
1214 PM CDT Sat Sep 6 2025 -A much cooler day is in store for the Natural State as the cold front has nearly completely the journey from north to south across the state. -High temperatures on Saturday will range statewide from the low 70s to the low 80s.
101 PM CDT Sat Sep 6 2025 (Rest of Today and Tonight) The surface cold front is finally pushing through the area late this morning and into the early part of the afternoon.
349 PM EDT Sat Sep 6 2025 - Cool this weekend with highs in the 60s and lows in the lower 40s. Occluded low pressure over Hudson Bay will maintain seasonably cool conditions and intervals of clouds across SE Michigan through the weekend. Cloud cover prevents overly favorable radiative cooling conditions from developing to keep overnight lows in the low to mid 40s despite underachieving high temperatures today.
(Rest of Today and Tonight) The surface cold front is finally pushing through the area late this morning and into the early part of the afternoon.
252 PM EDT Sat Sep 6 2025 (This afternoon through Sunday) Key Messages: - Clusters of thunderstorms associated with the cold front are pushing eastward through the remainder of the afternoon into the evening. -Cooler temperatures tomorrow behind the front with dry conditions for much of the area. Current mesoanalysis shows a favorable environment as temps have warmed into the the upper 80s to low 90s and dewpoints in the low to mid 70s in the untapped area which has resulted in CAPE values of 2500-3000 J/kg.
1204 PM EDT Sat Sep 6 2025 A cold front tracks across the Appalachians today with widely scattered showers and drizzle as it passes. A cold front is currently tracking through the Appalachians at the time of this writing, and lingering patchy showers and drizzle can be seen behind the front. There is some potential for frost to develop across the higher elevations of the West Virginia northern mountains Sunday night. Overnight temperatures will drop to the lower 40s along the ridgetops with a few mountain valley locations potentially reaching the upper 30s.
This trough along with continued very high moisture levels and weak steering currents will generally result in greater convective coverage through the forecast.
Highs for this afternoon are still forecast to reach the lower 70s, but a few areas that are already clearing out from the clouds may reach the mid 70s. H500 high pressure will begin to build over the central US on Sunday. Less cloud cover is forecast for tomorrow so high temperatures should warm up into the upper 70s to low 80s aided by increasing H850 temperatures up to the low 20s Celsius. A slightly stronger disturbance embedded in the northwest flow aloft is expected to move over the higher terrain of NM/CO towards the Panhandles Sunday afternoon into the evening. In fact, cannot completely rule out marginally severe hail if the higher CAPE/shear values pan out.
- Isolated shower activity will continue through this evening ahead of a cold front that will push through the region overnight into early Sunday.
1110 AM EDT Sat Sep 6 2025 A cold front tracks across the Appalachians today with widely scattered showers and drizzle as it passes. A cold front is currently tracking through the Appalachians at the time of this writing, and lingering patchy showers and drizzle can be seen behind the front. There is some potential for frost to develop across the higher elevations of the West Virginia northern mountains Sunday night. Overnight temperatures will drop to the lower 40s along the ridgetops with a few mountain valley locations potentially reaching the upper 30s.
Lows are expected to fall into the low to mid 30s across much of the area.
- Cloudy and cooler today, with scattered showers and a few thunderstorms possible into tonight.
Areas at elevation along the Buffalo Ridge are the most likely to see the lowest temperatures.
If fog or lower ceilings were to develop it would result in warmer overnight temperatures and potentially negate some of the frost. The elongated area of high pressure set up from Manitoba through ND and the east half of SD will be focused over our area by 06Z and drift across IA and southern MN shortly after daybreak Sunday. The low temperature forecast is to be in the 30s. Record lows for September 7th are mainly in the low to mid 30s, and 29 degrees at Aberdeen.
The current zonal mid/upper flow over Texas will gradually shift to a northwesterly regime this weekend as a trough digs south over E CONUS and a ridge builds over W CONUS. This should further enhance shower/thunderstorm coverage on Sunday, thus the higher PoPs in your Sunday forecast.
Current Water Vapor and upper air models show northwest flow over the FA, with upper ridge situated over the Rockies. Surface analysis depicts high pressure over the Dakotas. Upper ridge slides eastward over the northern and central planes the remainder of the weekend.
With troughing continuing across the E CONUS and the broad low in the Gulf, the subtropical ridging has been suppressed more than anticipated.
(Tonight) A surface cold front is finally moving into the Tennessee Valley this afternoon, with a bulk of the shower and thunderstorm activity now displaced to our south and east. High pressure will build in this evening and overnight, allowing cloud cover to gradually diminish this evening and especially after Midnight. This will allow for some radiational cooling, especially with a cooler, drier air mass filters into the area.
A few lingering showers will be possible across a good portion of our forecast area as near term guidance from both the GFS and the Euro show the cold front tracking southward towards the Gulf Coast by Saturday evening. Quiet weather conditions will dominate our forecast heading into the overnight period as high pressure builds into the region. Looking ahead into Sunday, slightly cooler and drier conditions will continue to advect south into the CWA thanks to north to northeast flow. /CR/ This pattern largely continues until midweek when upper ridging begins to press eastward toward our area. Otherwise, the longer term pattern is one of little rain chance and warmer conditions.
Sunday, showers gradually taper off from west to east as winds back more westerly with a ridge building into the Great Lakes.
- Isolated to scattered showers and storms most days this upcoming week but mainly over the higher terrain. - Warmer for much of the week ahead, but chances of storms may increase along with cooler temperatures by the end of the week. This leads to the best chance for showers and thunderstorms to be over the higher terrain. As the showers move off the higher terrain, they are expected to be short lived as they run into a more stable/capped airmass. A lee-side trough/dry line sets up over far eastern Colorado.
1231 PM CDT Sat Sep 6 2025 - Cloudy and cooler today, with scattered showers and a few thunderstorms possible into tonight.
The 12z upper air charts showed weak upper level trof, around 300 mb, over wrn AZ. Still plenty of moisture in place today, which combined with more sunshine/instability and perhaps a couple of ill-defined disturbances within the weak 700-500 mb troughiness across the region will result in an uptick in coverage of showers and thunderstorms today compared to yesterday. The HREF and UofA WRF guidance is tending to focus the highest thunderstorm chances both across the higher terrain and also for locales south of Tucson, centered over Santa Cruz/South Central Pima County and this seems reasonable. A gradual drying trend will commence Sunday, especially aloft as ridging also builds in.
A trough setting up offshore should also help keep shower activity weaker as well on Sunday if any showers do occur.
132 PM EDT Sat Sep 6 2025 - Cool this weekend with highs in the 60s and lows in the lower 40s.
Current Conditions and Synoptic Pattern: Water vapor and upper air analysis shows northwest flow aloft across the area with a deep trough over the Great Lakes. This was resulting in the airmass mixing in drier air with RH's in the 30-40% range as dews have dropped into the low 40s and temps in the low 70s. Locations east of Springfield, especially the valleys and wind protected areas could see lows drop into the lower 40s.
200 PM EDT Sat Sep 6 2025 After some lingering showers tonight and lake effect rain showers for parts of Central NY on Sunday, high pressure then builds into the region and will bring quiet conditions for the upcoming week. Temperatures will trend warmer with seasonable conditions by midweek. Flow then becomes westerly on Sunday as the trough continues to move through. Even as high pressure begins to build into the region late on Sunday, some isolated showers will be possible during the overnight hours. Temperatures tonight will fall into the 40s and 50s with the warmer areas being those that stay under the clouds for most of the night.
Further east, still expecting lows in the 30s, with favored cold spots such as the James River valley perhaps creeping closer to the freezing mark. If fog or lower ceilings were to develop it would result in warmer overnight temperatures and potentially negate some of the frost. The elongated area of high pressure set up from Manitoba through ND and the east half of SD will be focused over our area by 06Z and drift across IA and southern MN shortly after daybreak Sunday. The low temperature forecast is to be in the 30s. Record lows for September 7th are mainly in the low to mid 30s, and 29 degrees at Aberdeen.
518 PM CDT Sat Sep 6 2025 -A much cooler day is in store for the Natural State as the cold front has nearly completely the journey from north to south across the state. -High temperatures on Saturday will range statewide from the low 70s to the low 80s.
Better chances will be in southwest MN and east central SD where temperatures may fall into the lower 30s.
649 PM CDT Sat Sep 6 2025 - Cloudy and cooler today, with scattered showers and a few thunderstorms possible into tonight.
656 PM EDT Sat Sep 6 2025 After some lingering showers tonight and lake effect rain showers for parts of Central NY on Sunday, high pressure then builds into the region and will bring quiet conditions for the upcoming week. Temperatures will trend warmer with seasonable conditions by midweek. Flow then becomes westerly on Sunday as the trough continues to move through. Even as high pressure begins to build into the region late on Sunday, some isolated showers will be possible during the overnight hours. Temperatures tonight will fall into the 40s and 50s with the warmer areas being those that stay under the clouds for most of the night.
This resulted in showers and thunderstorms developing in the vicinity of the Lower Keys. Temperatures along the Island Chain are in the lower 80s with dew points in the mid 70s. A stagnant pattern remains across the Keys with weak low pressure over the west-central Gulf and weak high pressure over the Bahamas. This trough along with continued very high moisture levels and weak steering currents will generally result in greater convective coverage through the forecast.
642 PM CDT Sat Sep 6 2025 (Tonight) A surface cold front is finally moving into the Tennessee Valley this afternoon, with a bulk of the shower and thunderstorm activity now displaced to our south and east. High pressure will build in this evening and overnight, allowing cloud cover to gradually diminish this evening and especially after Midnight. This will allow for some radiational cooling, especially with a cooler, drier air mass filters into the area.
(This afternoon through Sunday) Key Messages: - Clusters of thunderstorms associated with the cold front are pushing eastward through the remainder of the afternoon into the evening. -Cooler temperatures tomorrow behind the front with dry conditions for much of the area. Current mesoanalysis shows a favorable environment as temps have warmed into the the upper 80s to low 90s and dewpoints in the low to mid 70s in the untapped area which has resulted in CAPE values of 2500-3000 J/kg.
642 PM CDT Sat Sep 6 2025 - Isolated shower activity will continue through this evening ahead of a cold front that will push through the region overnight into early Sunday.
709 PM CDT Sat Sep 6 2025 This pattern largely continues until midweek when upper ridging begins to press eastward toward our area. Otherwise, the longer term pattern is one of little rain chance and warmer conditions.
Sunday will feature dry weather for most, with low- level ridging taking control over the Upper Ohio Valley. Temperatures will be fairly similar to today, as increased sunshine is offset by the cooler 850mb temperatures.
641 PM CDT Sat Sep 6 2025 Updated at 634 PM CDT Sat Sep 6 2025 - Rain and thunderstorms will come to an end this afternoon, giving way to cooler temperatures this weekend. The cold front has pushed south and east of Middle TN and much cooler air has built in.
641 PM EDT Sat Sep 6 2025 - Cool this weekend with highs in the 60s and lows in the lower 40s. Occluded low pressure over Hudson Bay will maintain seasonably cool conditions and intervals of clouds across SE Michigan through the weekend. Cloud cover prevents overly favorable radiative cooling conditions from developing to keep overnight lows in the low to mid 40s despite underachieving high temperatures today.
Sunday: Ridging aloft combined with drying trend will limited mainly isolated thunderstorms across Cochise, Santa Cruz and central/western Pima counties. Highs 3 to 5 degrees warmer than today.
Expect these conditions to continue tonight, with lows ranging from the mid 50s in the north to the low 60s in the south. /15/ This pattern largely continues until midweek when upper ridging begins to press eastward toward our area. Otherwise, the longer term pattern is one of little rain chance and warmer conditions.
PWAT's continue to dry out significantly Monday following northwesterly flow and the stacked ridge amplifying overhead.
High pressure and a cooler drier airmass over the region will bring slightly below normal conditions to the area for this time of year.
- High pressure will facilitate relatively mild and dry weather across the area through the midweek ahead while evening lows are projected to be noticeably cool tonight and Monday night.
The cold front can still be observed draped across the SE but is expected to start it's push off to the NE today, clearing the area late this afternoon and into the evening.
- Below normal temperatures and drier weather return for the latter part of the weekend behind a departing cold front. The latest surface analysis shows a strong dome of high pressure centered over the Buffalo Ridge in southwestern Minnesota. The high- pressure domeâs influence can be felt here in eastern Kentucky, as clear skies and dry weather are present. Overnight lows will be cooler, with lows falling into the low to upper 40s.
It should also be noted that given the high amount of moisture in the environment, it is possible for some of these showers and thunderstorms to produce a high amount of rainfall in an area in a very short time, that could also lead to some localized flooding as well. As for the temperatures in the forecast period, the highs for today and tomorrow are expected to mostly be in the triple digits for the region with areas along the coast could be in the upper 90s. Limiting the highs to mid to upper 90s for the area. A frontal boundary is expected to stall out towards the north of the Lower Texas Coast.
Weak surface through lower level troughing remains dug in over the eastern Gulf and Florida. This along with an early season mid latitude trough blanketing the eastern United States has contributed to a persistent band of very high precipitable water and weak lower level confluence across our region. Troughing will remain to our north across the Gulf and the Florida Peninsula while the Atlantic ridge will ebb and flow across the Bahamas and Cuba. A weak surface through lower level trough continues its relentless hold over the Gulf and the Florida Peninsula. This along with troughing lingering over the eastern United States is responsible for weak steering and a band of very high precipitable water across Florida and the Keys. Unfortunately, local moisture will remain high, ridging absent, and steering flow weak.
High pressure centered from ND to OK will spread across ERN Conus Sunday. In the upper levels, broad troughing across ERN Conus will nudge EWD on Sunday with NW flow into AL. On Monday, the ERN Conus ridge will become more NE to SW elongated with NE-ERLY low level flow into C AL. Although we may see an isolated shower or storm in the SE during the afternoon on Monday with heating, for the most part C AL should be rain free on Monday as well with only minor recovery in the lower levels.
That should allow for another night of good radiational cooling tonight, with lows dropping into the low 40s or perhaps upper 30s in spots. In the wake of the large but departing upper trough, ridging builds in from the west this week. At the surface, high pressure shifts to the east opening up a southerly flow across the region.
207 AM EDT Sun Sep 7 2025 High pressure builds in behind a departing cold front today.
As of 135 AM EDT Sunday: All quiet across the forecast area as a potent cold front pushes to our east, ushering in a much drier air mass behind it. Dewpoints, already in the mid to even low 60s, will fall throughout the night, likely hitting the upper 50s across the higher elevations. As of 145 am EDT Sunday: A broad/baggy trough will gradually return to the Southeast during the extended, as a strong upper low/short wave trough digs into southeast Canada and New England toward the latter part of the week. Prior to this, inverted surface ridging will be gradually weakening and the air mass modifying across our CWA, with temps warming and humidity increasing.
434 AM EDT Sun Sep 7 2025 - Cool again today with highs in the 60s and lows in the lower 40s. Upper level confluence will then drive the weather for the middle of the week as persistent surface ridging holds on over the region.
An upper-level trough axis was centered across the Mississippi Valley early this morning, leaving southwest Missouri and southeast Kansas under northwest flow aloft.
Satellite imagery reveals a large trough moving through the Upper Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes, and this feature will maintain it's grip on the area for at least the next 24 hours. Over the course of the week, an upper level ridge is expected to slowly build across the central Plains, and gradually move eastward before finally reaching the Mississippi Valley by the end of the wee. Meanwhile, southerly flow will also return across the central plains, although the more robust southerlies are not likely to follow the ridge eastward.
1253 AM EDT Sun Sep 7 2025 High pressure will provide for dry conditions for the next several days. An upper level trough with an embedded mid level short wave will move east across the region today. Lows tonight will be in the 40s with highs on Monday in the low to mid 70s. A dry forecast is in store for the region as high pressure remains the dominant weather feature. After morning lows on Monday in the mid-upper 40s and daytime highs in the upper 70s, it will warm up with highs in the low-mid 80s and lows in the mid-upper 50s. A mid level short wave moving through an upper level trough will lead to some mid and high level clouds at times through the day.
In the upper lvls, the digging trof positioned over the Great Lakes region of the CONUS extending into the Southeastern region of the CONUS will continue to lift northeastward away from Arkansas in closing out the weekend into the beginning of the workweek. By the middle of the workweek, an upper lvl ridge builds over Texas and northern Mexico and begins to slowly expand into the Central Plains and Mid-South regions of the CONUS including over Arkansas. At the sfc, a center of high pressure will meander across the region and begin by assisting and keeping these below average temperatures by 5 to 10 degrees in place across the state through the middle of the workweek.
Meanwhile, a short wave over the E Gulf may contribute additional instability across the area today, which combined with the relatively weak S/SW flow at the sfc, should bring the highest chances of showers and thunderstorms over the eastern half of SoFlo this afternoon. Very similar weather pattern continues on Monday, as the remnant boundary over C FL dissipates and, and high pressure establishing over the E CONUS pushes the second front pushes further south and into C FL.
The broad upper level trough responsible for the cooler weather this weekend and showers overnight/this AM will begin to lift out through the period, giving way to warmer temperatures and dry conditions. Tonight will be cold as high pressure centers overhead.
1127 PM CDT Sat Sep 6 2025 -A much cooler day is in store for the Natural State as the cold front has nearly completely the journey from north to south across the state.
333 AM CDT Sun Sep 7 2025 - Cooler weather will persist through Monday with highs mostly in the 70s.
High pressure will dominate with dry and generally quiet conditions for this week.
This deep moisture combined with the passage of a cold front will keep slight chances of rain and storms overnight. The best chances for rain and storms will be west of I-45, and south of I-10, where the highest PW values persist. Ridging building in to our west will bring more stable and drier conditions across most of SE TX after Monday. Highs will become even hotter toward the end of the workweek as ridging axis builds over the Plains.
250 AM MDT Sun Sep 7 2025 KEY MESSAGES: - A warm ridge of high pressure brings a return to summer-like conditions starting today. WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: A warm upper level ridge of high pressure over the Pacific NW is drifting eastward into Montana over the next few days.
High pressure remains positioned just to our west early this morning. With clear skies, and dry air, we have dropped to the low to mid 40s over the entire CWA as of 1 AM. Today the high pressure will move over our region. Tonight, the high pressure will continue to drift east, with light southeast to south winds developing overnight. Temperatures will drop to the 40s once again, especially east, where lows will once again bottom out in the lower 40s.
Sunday looks to be the last day of highs in the 60s as the deep trough finally begins to pull NE. Overnight lows Monday morning should be in the low to mid 40s, but as has been mentioned, some of the traditionally cool spots in Hillsdale county could see a brief visit with upper 30s.
This boundary will push south into central FL Tonight, as high pressure builds to the north northwest.
- Warmer today through first half of work week. Ridging aloft will be centered right over our region today allowing temps to climb well above normal, into the mid and upper 80s for most locations (70s in the high country). BT Ridging will continue to build over the Northern Rockies beginning Monday.
Today kicks off with temperatures in the lower to mid 80s, and while we will gradually warm into the lower to mid 90s by midweek, the air will remain relatively dry, making the heat much more bearable.
The breakdown of this trough tonight into Monday will result in a shift to a westerly split- flow and a baroclinic zone near our southern CWA may act as a focus for diurnal showers/thunderstorms as weaker mid level waves pass to the south. Ridging then builds into our region mid week, followed by some form of weak southwest flow between the ridge and a cutoff mid level low to the west late week into the weekend.
Upper ridging begins to build in from the west today, as well, helping to draw in seasonably warm air to the western half of the cwa. Monday evening, we find the upper level ridge just off to our west over the Rockies.
105 AM CDT Sun Sep 7 2025 - Cloudy and cooler today, with scattered showers and a few thunderstorms possible into tonight.