Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Relative humidities are still low as dew points are down in the 40s regionwide with the dry airmass behind this mornings cold front. Drier and cooler conditions are expected with many areas seeing lows in the 40s to lower 50s tonight and highs in the lower to mid 70s on Tuesday. This Evening/Tonight Currently this afternoon, northwesterly flow is in place aloft with a cold front having pushed to our south. This is further illustrated by continued expansion of 1025mb high pressure from the north. Continued CAA from northerly winds behind the front will promote notably cooler conditions tonight and even lessened fog development. Tuesday On Tuesday, additional height falls are expected, along with further progression and expansion of high pressure.
(Rest of tonight) High pressure firmly in control of the weather across the region, promoting clear and calm conditions.
740 PM EDT Mon Oct 7 2024 A cold front is poised to move through tonight. That front will usher in a cooler and drier air mass for the remainder of the work week.
The CIMSS Vorticity map shows a core of strong vorticity that is also roughly in line with the lower level convergence and upper level divergence, so this air mass is just conducive to continued activity. This low will slowly lift out of our area, but this will happen as Milton continues to move across the Gulf, and approaches the west coast of the peninsula.
(This afternoon through Tuesday) At a glance: - Clear and dry - Cooldown starts tomorrow At the time of writing of this AFD, a cold front is draped across the Atlanta Metro, working to efface our lingering unseasonably warm airmass. Expect cooler and drier -- and more Fall-like -- air to fill in behind it over the course of the next 36 hours as it completes its trek through north and central Georgia.
This may induce an inverted trough at the surface through 8h which shifts west from north GA and east TN this afternoon. Easterly flow east of the trough will advect slightly higher dew points into the lower to middle 50s in our southeast counties this afternoon. But otherwise, another sunny and dry day is expected with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s in valley areas (middle 70s atop the higher Cumberland Plateau in Jackson and Franklin Counties).
1236 AM CDT Tue Oct 8 2024 (This evening through Wednesday) An upper ridge will continue over the western half of the country through the short term period with an upper low remaining in the northeast. Few clouds are expected with the high pressure in place. Highs Tuesday will be in the lower 70s to around 80 degrees and then in the mid 70s to mid 80s on Wednesday.
1118 PM CDT Mon Oct 7 2024 (This evening through Tuesday Night) Benign weather conditions are expected to prevail for the next several days as high pressure and dry air dominates the local weather pattern. A weak cold front will push into the region from the NE overnight tonight, and although there will be no rain associated with the front, the lows will be dipping into the low to mid 60s over the Brazos Valley and Piney Woods region and in the upper 60s to low 70s elsewhere.
(Today through Wednesday) Through the short term upper level ridging will remain just to the west and a trough and Hurricane Milton over the central and eastern Gulf of Mexico. Given the lower dew points and light winds, cooler low temperatures are forecast Wednesday morning, in the upper 50s to lower 60s across central and eastern areas, and upper 60s along the Rio Grande.
1224 AM CDT Tue Oct 8 2024 (Tonight through Tuesday night) A dry and benign weather pattern will continue across South-Central Texas during the short term with mid-level ridging centered to our west and lower heights to our east across the Gulf of Mexico with some association with dangerous Category 5 Hurricane Milton. This drier air will result in a cooler start on Wednesday morning where 50s become a bit more common. Afternoon highs will otherwise remain above average today and Tuesday into the low to mid 90s over most locations.
We remain under overall ridging aloft, with a weak trough just west of our forecast area. High pressure will also remain in the area at the surface, with a weak pressure gradient through most of today resulting in light and variable winds until late this afternoon or evening.
Upper air observation from the evening confirmed a deep layer of dry air in the low to mid levels of the troposphere, allowing for efficient cooling overnight into Tuesday morning. In dry airmass expect to see abundant sunshine with temperatures topping out from the upper 60s to the lower 70s. High pressure will continue to offer dry weather and slightly below normal temperatures Tuesday night. High pressure remains over the Ohio Valley on Wednesday and Wednesday night leading to clear conditions and near average temperatures.
(Today through Wednesday afternoon) The upper level ridge that has held over the Four Corners begins to shift to the east over the course of today. Wednesday is a near repeat of today, but temperatures climb another 1-3 degrees as the ridge broadens over West Texas and southeast New Mexico.
A slight flattening of the ridge today will bring afternoon breezes of 10-20 mph across much of the area, with stronger winds of 20-30 mph expected in Lemhi County and southwest Montana.
The resulting N/NE wind flow contd to bring drier and cooler air into the FA. Readings on Wed a few degrees warmer, ranging from the mid 70s to lower 80s.
119 AM EDT Tue Oct 8 2024 - Frost/Freeze conditions both Tuesday Night and Wednesday Night - Chance of weekend showers, then cooler Band of showers dropping south through nrn Lwr MI are weakening but may clip the U.
113 AM EDT Tue Oct 8 2024 Cooler and drier air settles in as high pressure builds in for much of the coming week. Otherwise, clear through the period with slightly cooler temperatures, especially at night. Discussion: The Canadian air mass following the earlier cold front is settling in and and providing a clear sky and stable airmass. Low temperatures are expected to be in the lower 40s towards the mountains and upper-40s/lower-50s towards the Piedmont. Key Messages: 1: Quiet and slightly cooler weather start this workweek A large dome of high pressure with a cool and dry Canadian airmass will sit overhead for this forecast period.
(Today through Wednesday) This morning is starting off rather cool across northern and central parts of the area, with temps in the low to mid 50s.
/NEW/ /Tuesday through Wednesday/ The early morning sfc analysis indicates cooler and drier air backdooring SW into N and NE TX, evident in the sharply lower sfc theta-e's extending from just S of SPS, into the DFW Metroplex, SE to near TYR and the Sam Rayburn Country of Deep E TX. Sfc ridging extending from the OH Valley SW into ECntrl TX will persist through the short term period, maintaining abnormally warm temps but dry RH's, with additional drier air backdooring farther W tonight once mixing ceases.
Good radiational cooling conditions have evolved locally, with temps dipping into the lower to mid 40s in most spots by daybreak. Temps should top out in the lower 70s by mid to late afternoon amidst light NW flow at 10 MPH or less. Sunny with temps in the lower to mid 70s.
402 AM EDT Tue Oct 8 2024 - Noticeably cooler and drier air will be in place across the area, making for rain free and comfortable early autumn conditions for much of this week.
104 AM CDT Tue Oct 8 2024 Mid evening surface analysis showed a dry cold front nearly along our I-59 corridor. This cold front will continue to push south through the night and usher in cooler and drier air into our CWA. Surface dew points were being observed in the 40s along the Highway 82 corridor and in the 50s just south of the I-20 corridor.
A ridge of high pressure will bring a continuation of dry weather into the weekend.
Discussion: High pressure continues to settle atop the region with mostly clear skies a product of strong subsidence. However, it will be rather chilly this morning with widespread temperatures in the low 50s to mid 40s. High pressure will continue to dominate throughout the period.
305 AM EDT Tue Oct 8 2024 Cooler and drier air settles in as high pressure builds in for much of the coming week. Some areas may cool into the upper 30s across the higher terrain, with areas like Burkes Garden possibly seeing near freezing temperatures tonight. Otherwise, much of the higher terrain areas will see lows dip into the low 40s, and the piedmont regions will likely see lows dropping into the mid 40s.
113 AM EDT Tue Oct 8 2024 High pressure builds into the southern Mid-Atlantic region Tuesday into Wednesday.
(Today through Wednesday) Mid-level ridging over Texas will continue to provide subsidence over Deep South Texas through the period. A Coastal Flood Statement may needed for later this morning due to the higher water levels.
As the ridges stay over the region, the PWAT will continue to be low, in fact, less than 1. Otherwise, with Milton churning away southeast of us in the Gulf, the wave periods continue to increase, so that coastal flooding looks pretty certain during the high tides as the tidal stations show the water levels are up to around 2 feet MSL which usually leads to water up to the dunes.
(Today and tonight) More of the same is in store as the forecast area remains under mid to upper level ridging, a deep dry air mass remains in place, and south to southwest winds mostly stay at 10 mph or less as the surface pressure gradient remains weak. A slight increase in thickness values point to slight warmer high temperatures today.
117 AM EDT Tue Oct 8 2024 Dry conditions and noticeably cooler temperatures are expected through much of the work week under the influence of high pressure. ------------------------------------------------------------------- Ridging will increase overnight, extending from Middle Mississippi Valley low pressure. KEY MESSAGES: - Continued dry weather and cooler temperatures.
today, with the western CONUS upper ridge beginning to amplify as it trudges very slowly eastward this week. Meanwhile, low-amplitude perturbations are moving southeastward in the downstream troughing. The upper ridge to our west amplifies further as its axis inches eastward through the week. Eventually, two weather phenomena of interest will factor into the weekend forecast: (1) a deep trough entering the western U. Winds will remain light with high pressure moving through the region.
326 AM EDT Tue Oct 8 2024 - Dry and seasonable weather to continue through Wednesday - Frost/Freeze Risk Continues Wednesday night - Increasing weekend showers, then cooler - Dry and seasonable weather to continue through Wednesday We are looking at a couple of dry days and seasonable temperatures by October standards for the next couple of days. NW flow aloft in the SW quadrant of the upper low complex over the region will continue to funnel down cooler air than we have been experiencing over the recent days. - Frost/Freeze Risk Continues Wednesday night High pressure will build down from the north Wednesday evening.
This storm brought Key West and much of the Lower Keys a quick burst of heavy rain and gusty winds with the airport measuring a 33 knot or 38 mph gust.
324 AM EDT Tue Oct 8 2024 High pressure builds into the southern Mid-Atlantic region Tuesday into Wednesday.
(Today through Wednesday Night) With the passage of the cold front overnight, dry quiet and cooler (finally) weather will prevail across SE TX through the short term. but some locations to the W/SW could still see some readings into the lower 90s. Tomorrow night's low will be roughly the same, but perhaps 1 to 3 degrees warmer.
One minor impact though from the smoky/hazy sky is that highs today might end up "slightly cooler" with upper 70s to around 80 instead of higher values with what could have been from a more clear sky.
A cooler weather pattern settles into the Pacific Northwest this week. A cold front will bring in cooler temperatures, light precipitation, and brief breezy winds overnight into Tuesday, with showers continuing through Wednesday.
A cold front is also pushing south across Louisiana and eastern Texas with lowering dewpoints noted across the region. Dry conditions will occur through the short term with cooler temperatures past this afternoon. High pressure will remain across the lower Mississippi Valley and the NW gulf coast behind the front and through the short term period keeping the north to northwest flow in place.
143 AM EDT Tue Oct 8 2024 A cold front is poised to move through tonight. That front will usher in a cooler and drier air mass for the remainder of the work week.
The upper pattern over the middle country continues to be dominated by an upper-level ridge. This ridge has been situated generally over the western half of the CONUS the last several days but the ridge axis will shift eastward by the middle of the week. By the end of the week that ridge gets flattened out but with continued low-level warm advection, we'll see temperatures continue to warm.
Continued dry and unseasonably hot October weather is expected through the rest of the week as high pressure dominates the US Southwest weather pattern. Ridging flow aloft will remain in place over Arizona and New Mexico the rest of this week, leading to more dry weather and abnormally hot October conditions.
These clouds may hold overnight lows up just a bit west of Tulsa, with very cool conditions expected as lows drop into the 40s in many areas, potentially some upper 30s in typically cooler spots.
However, continued northwest flow aloft due to the upper-level ridge axis being west of Wyoming will continue to send lofted smoke into the CWA. Subsidence under the ridge and westerly winds throughout much of the day will aid in the persistent dryness the area has seen over the last few weeks. On Wednesday, the region remains under the influence of broad ridging. There will be a weak upper level wave passing over South Dakota into Nebraska, and perhaps a few ripples embedded within the broader trough overhead.
327 AM EDT Tue Oct 8 2024 Dry conditions and noticeably cooler temperatures are expected through much of the work week under the influence of high pressure. KEY MESSAGES: - Continued dry weather and cooler temperatures. ------------------------------------------------------------------- Latest observations show dewpoints in the lower 40s across the region, so frost development is not a concern this morning. KEY MESSAGES: - Continued dry weather and cooler temperatures.
NE flow and cloud cover will keep temps in the low-mid 80s across central and southern areas, while Nature Coast locations will be a few degrees warmer owing to a bit less coverage.
The ridge of high pressure that was over California this weekend will shift east early this week as a trough of low pressure moves west into California. The trough of low pressure will be fairly weak, and although a few degrees of cooling will occur most days, temperatures will remain above average. Temperatures for the low deserts will remain quite hot into Tuesday, with major to extreme HeatRisk still expected even though it'll be 3 to 5 degrees cooler than today.
A broad upper level ridge remains centered over the interior western US with little or no clouds and dry conditions prevailing across the Northern Rockies and MT through tonight. Temperatures cool closer to normal for the second half of the work week behind a cold front, but dry conditions largely prevail. Upper level ridging begins to flatten and shift east of the Northern Rockies through the middle of the work week as longwave troughing over the Gulf of Alaska slowly moves over the British Columbia coast.
Temperatures this afternoon and tomorrow will rise into the low to mid 80s with overnight lows in the 60s. Temperatures will be a little cooler beginning tomorrow, but highs will still be in the upper 70s making for some beautiful weather.
High pressure continues to prevail across the region bringing with it above normal temperatures and dry conditions. High pressure will dominate across the region throughout week with the CWA staying in the northern fringe. Temperatures are expected to gradually warm through the week with highs in the low to mid 80s east of the Divide by the second half of the week. High pressure looks to build back in over the region after the disturbance moves through the area.
129 AM EDT Tue Oct 8 2024 An upper level trough and cold pool aloft for the rest of the work week will support fall-like weather as morning lows drop into the 30s and 40s, and afternoon highs crest in the 50s and 60s.
1242 AM CDT Tue Oct 8 2024 - Patchy frost is possible again tonight as high pressure centers of the area tonight. High pressure will drive the short term weather as it moves more over the area today. Dewpoints this afternoon have dropped into the low 30s to upper 20s as deep mixing brought drier air to the surface. This evening some rebound in Tds is expected, but are still expected to be in the low 30s overnight. Most guidance has lows some 10 degrees warmer than this. Tomorrow, temps in the 60s look likely as high pressure continues to affect the area. We will continue with NW flow as ridging eventually builds into the area.
152 AM MDT Tue Oct 8 2024 - Smokey/hazy skies through Wednesday - Dry and mild/warm through forecast period - Elevated fire weather conditions continue 07z surface analysis had lee trough from central MT to central WY and another trough from western ND through central NE. Water vapour loop had weak/compact upper low over the Black Hills with a few AC over northeast WY/southwest SD. Larger scale pattern had upper ridge from the southwest CONUS into the northern Plains. Effect of this ridge main forecast driver in the short term. Today/Wednesday, weak upper low strolls southeast of the region as upper/thermal ridge modestly builds into the northern Plains. Result will be warmer temperatures, some 15-25F above normal per forecast lower tropospheric profiles and ensemble MaxT guidance.
330 AM EDT Tue Oct 8 2024 Dry conditions and noticeably cooler temperatures are expected through much of the work week under the influence of high pressure. KEY MESSAGES: - Continued dry weather and cooler temperatures. ------------------------------------------------------------------- Latest observations show dewpoints in the lower 40s across the region, so frost development is not a concern this morning. KEY MESSAGES: - Continued dry weather and cooler temperatures.
Highs will be a couple of degrees warmer today, too, with the HREF showing about a 50 to 60 percent chance for highs to reach 80 degrees in the eastern Magic Valley and lower Snake Plain.
Surface winds: variable less than 10 kt, except SW 5-15 kt Tuesday afternoon across the higher terrain.
1027 PM CDT Mon Oct 7 2024 (Rest of tonight) High pressure firmly in control of the weather across the region, promoting clear and calm conditions.
Our weather will remain under the influence of this drier air the rest of this week with temperatures slightly warming back into the low to mid 80s by the weekend.
612 AM EDT Tue Oct 8 2024 High pressure centered over the Mid Mississippi Valley will build slowly east into the Carolinas over the next few days.
A pattern shift is slowly occurring as the extraordinarily stubborn ridge of high pressure that has brought record heat is beginning to weaken. The synoptic flow is still expected to keep the ridge in place, but we will see a bit more of a modified zonal flow aloft resulting in a less intense ridge. We will also see some periods of mid and high level clouds as the ridge weakens, but any clouds likely won't help much to take the edge off the heat.
Temperatures cool closer to normal for the second half of the work week behind a cold front, but dry conditions largely prevail. With upper level ridging remaining firmly in place over the next few days, which will keep us warm and dry with just some modest afternoon breezes with wind gusts up to 20 mph or so (30 mph along the Rocky Mountain Front), with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s today and Wednesday.
511 AM MDT Tue Oct 8 2024 - Smokey/hazy skies through Wednesday - Dry and mild/warm through forecast period - Elevated fire weather conditions continue 07z surface analysis had lee trough from central MT to central WY and another trough from western ND through central NE. Water vapour loop had weak/compact upper low over the Black Hills with a few AC over northeast WY/southwest SD. Larger scale pattern had upper ridge from the southwest CONUS into the northern Plains. Effect of this ridge main forecast driver in the short term. Today/Wednesday, weak upper low strolls southeast of the region as upper/thermal ridge modestly builds into the northern Plains. Result will be warmer temperatures, some 15-25F above normal per forecast lower tropospheric profiles and ensemble MaxT guidance.
911 AM EDT Tue Oct 8 2024 Cooler and drier air settles in as high pressure builds in for much of the coming week. Some areas may cool into the upper 30s across the higher terrain, with areas like Burkes Garden possibly seeing near freezing temperatures tonight. Otherwise, much of the higher terrain areas will see lows dip into the low 40s, and the piedmont regions will likely see lows dropping into the mid 40s.
644 AM EDT Tue Oct 8 2024 Cooler and drier air settles in as high pressure builds in for much of the coming week. Some areas may cool into the upper 30s across the higher terrain, with areas like Burkes Garden possibly seeing near freezing temperatures tonight. Otherwise, much of the higher terrain areas will see lows dip into the low 40s, and the piedmont regions will likely see lows dropping into the mid 40s.
607 AM CDT Tue Oct 8 2024 A ridge of high pressure will bring a continuation of dry weather into the weekend.
A weak low pressure system will move in from the west as the high pressure system that has gripped Arizona weakens. Associated with the approaching low pressure system there will be a slight increase in moisture. Weak upward motion with this low will produce a fair amount of mid- to high-level cloudiness today and Wednesday.
Temperatures will gradually trend cooler through the week but will remain above average for this time of the year. A broad area of high pressure aloft continues to dominate the pattern across the west.
High pressure and a dry airmass will remain in place across the region today. Afternoon highs will be in the low 70s. Sunny with temps in the lower to mid 70s.
505 AM EDT Tue Oct 8 2024 Dry conditions and noticeably cooler temperatures are expected through much of the work week under the influence of high pressure. KEY MESSAGES: - Continued dry weather and cooler temperatures. KEY MESSAGES: - Continued dry weather and cooler temperatures.
Winds will continue to be light and variable but mostly from the north behind the weak cold front that passed through the region yesterday.
551 AM CDT Tue Oct 8 2024 (Today and tonight) More of the same is in store as the forecast area remains under mid to upper level ridging, a deep dry air mass remains in place, and south to southwest winds mostly stay at 10 mph or less as the surface pressure gradient remains weak. A slight increase in thickness values point to slight warmer high temperatures today.
The high pressure will settle in tonight with low to mid 50s by this time tomorrow and less wind along with, and our minimum RH will tumble into the low to mid 20% range for the rest of this week.
The front has moved through the area bringing significantly drier conditions to the area as dewpoints have dropped into the low 50s even at the coast.
709 AM EDT Tue Oct 8 2024 Dry conditions and noticeably cooler temperatures are expected through much of the work week under the influence of high pressure. KEY MESSAGES: - Continued dry weather and cooler temperatures. KEY MESSAGES: - Continued dry weather and cooler temperatures.
528 AM MDT Tue Oct 8 2024 Continued dry and unseasonably hot October weather is expected through the rest of the week as high pressure dominates the US Southwest weather pattern. Ridging flow aloft will remain in place over Arizona and New Mexico the rest of this week, leading to more dry weather and abnormally hot October conditions.