Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
The high pressure aloft centered over Arizona and New Mexico has expanded west today, allowing some monsoonal moisture into the region. The high will continue to move west into Thursday, becoming more centered over Southern California. The high pressure aloft will keep the marine layer shallower and any additional influx in moisture will keep any marine layer low cloud coverage patchy and confined to coastal areas tonight into Thursday morning. With the upper level high expanding west across Southern California today and Thursday, above average temperatures are expected for inland locations. High temperatures will range from the 70s near the coast; to the 90s to 105 for the Inland Empire; and 114 to 118 for the lower deserts. Widespread moderate HeatRisk is expected for the valleys and mountains, with widespread major HeatRisk in the low deserts.
The local area remains situated between two upper highs and under the influence of weak troughing aloft. Cloud cover and rain-cooled outflow should keep afternoon temperatures from becoming too oppressive, topping out in the low to mid 90s with maximum heat index values mostly in the 100-105 degree range.
An upper high over the Desert Southwest will flatten and expand latitudinally over the span of today as a trough ejects from the Pacific Northwest into the Intermountain West. Southerly upslope winds and an upper trough moving through the Great Plains could bring shower and thunderstorm chances tomorrow evening.
(This evening through Thursday) The warming trend kicks off today as as an area of broad high pressure extending from the Desert Southwest to the Eastern Pacific Ocean builds into place. Effects of this are already being observed with locations outside of the marine layer influence observing warmer conditions than what were observed 24 hours ago as well as the marine layer compressing about 600 feet in 24 hours which is indicative of subsidence aloft. Yet, temperatures will still remain near to below normal for all but the highest terrain today.
- Remaining mild throughout with highs around the low to mid 90s. The main threats with these storms will be large hail for our westernmost areas this afternoon and early evening thanks in part due to the higher lapse rates in that area.
1115 AM CDT Wed Jul 9 2025 (This afternoon through Thursday) High pressure will move through the Gulf, with an upper level low pressure system and trough moving through the Ohio Valley.
Forecast soundings indicate a saturated profile and high freezing level above 15k ft; resulting in a deep warm cloud layer depth.
Water vapor imagery early this afternoon indicates mid-level ridging over the Desert Southwest with an upper jet max beginning to enter the Northern Plains. Weak forcing provided by small ripples in flow riding over the ridge is expected to be accompanied by a diurnal spark later this afternoon to produce chances for popup showers and storms.
This direction aligns with the orientation of many of the initiating boundaries, particularly those along the higher terrain of the central Appalachians. Convection will likely be slow to clear out of Lancaster County, with some of the guidance depicting moderate to heavy rain continuing as late as midnight before the trough kicks it east.
-Cold front may generate strong to severe thunderstorms on Thursday.
- Upper ridge setting up across the Lower Mississippi Valley could result in Heat Advisory headlines by the end of the An upper-level trough across the Mid-Mississippi Valley stretching south across Arkansas into northeast Texas will allow for increased instability across the region today. At this time, already beginning to see radar echoes along the eastern extent of the trough across portions of Deep East Texas. Convection to increase with the highest coverage across mainly Deep East Texas and north Louisiana this afternoon. Otherwise, with increased instability and cloud cover, temperatures forecast to remain slightly cooler than the expected July highs, averaging around 90 degrees areawide. Temperatures tonight to average in the lower 70s. Upper-trough to linger across the region through Thursday allowing for another round afternoon of scattered convection.
Afternoon highs are expected to climb into the upper 80s over the eastern Ozarks, and the low 90s elsewhere. Afternoon highs are expected to climb into the upper 80s over the eastern Ozarks, and the low 90s elsewhere.
(Tonight through Thursday night) A 598dm Subtropical Ridge centered over southern Arizona will remain in place through the foreseeable future. Between this and weak ridging over the eastern Gulf, our region looks to be within a bit of a Col or area of weaker steering flow and a region of slightly elevated pressure between these two highs. The good news is that this Col should weaken as ridging strengthens somewhat Thursday and some Saharan dust works into our area.
A strong ridge centered over east-central Arizona will slide westward and then flatten a bit over the next few days. This ridge is almost too warm for convection, with some capping noted on the soundings this morning. Additionally, the ridge positioning and streamlines do not favor moisture advection into Arizona.
Dewpoints are a bit higher than forecast in some areas, leading to the higher heat indices.
(Through Thursday) A weak upper level trough over southwest Georgia and north Florida is slowly weakening this afternoon as another larger upper level trough slowly translates east through Thursday. Convective activity should eventually wane through the evening with activity likely lingering a little longer across our inland zones in Alabama/Georgia closer to the incoming upper level trough. For Thursday, faster west and southwesterly flow in association with the upper level trough should lead to quicker storm motions along with slightly better coverage. With the lower potential for storms to develop inland in the pre-dawn and morning hours, this should aid in the development of storms tomorrow. This is mostly due to the lower potential for cloud debris limiting instability from developing (like we saw today).
A cold front is located from Grand Rapids southwest towards Des Moines, and it will slowly sink south and east this afternoon and evening. As winds switch from the southwest to northwest/north along the lakeshore behind the cold front, waves will build to 3 to 4 feet. Thursday will be dry as high pressure briefly builds into the Upper Great Lakes region for 24-36 hours. An upper level ridge expands across the southwest and central US this week and progresses eastward. Heat and humidity will build across the Midwest as the upper level ridges expands and WAA increases later in the week.
Models have the upper ridge center push westward overnight tonight and on Thursday with the ridge flattening. A weak upper trough moves across the CWA on Thursday. It will usher in a cooler airmass with some increased moisture and limited upward synoptic scale energy.
101 PM EDT Wed Jul 9 2025 High pressure just north of the region will provide mainly quiet weather through tonight though some isolated showers are possible.
634 PM CDT Wed Jul 9 2025 -The upper level low will weaken on Thursday as it moves into Texas.
An upper high over the Desert Southwest will flatten and expand longitudinally over the span of today as a trough ejects from the Pacific Northwest into the Intermountain West. Southerly upslope winds and an upper trough moving through the Great Plains could bring shower and thunderstorm chances tomorrow evening.
An inverted trough located between Florida and The Bahamas formed a weakness in the Atlantic High over the past few days. The trough would cross the Florida Peninsula tomorrow at its current pace. GOES-East satellite returns depict pulses of thunderstorms along the eastern axis of the trough. A chaotic environment will move across the Keys along the inverted trough. Moisture in the lower levels is expected to increase, and veering winds will provide a source of lift for convection. Statistical guidance hints that shower coverage will decrease after sunset as the Atlantic Ridge rebuilds towards the Keys.
646 PM CDT Wed Jul 9 2025 (This afternoon through Thursday) High pressure will move through the Gulf, with an upper level low pressure system and trough moving through the Ohio Valley.
735 PM EDT Wed Jul 9 2025 (Through Thursday) A weak upper level trough over southwest Georgia and north Florida is slowly weakening this afternoon as another larger upper level trough slowly translates east through Thursday. Convective activity should eventually wane through the evening with activity likely lingering a little longer across our inland zones in Alabama/Georgia closer to the incoming upper level trough. For Thursday, faster west and southwesterly flow in association with the upper level trough should lead to quicker storm motions along with slightly better coverage. With the lower potential for storms to develop inland in the pre-dawn and morning hours, this should aid in the development of storms tomorrow. This is mostly due to the lower potential for cloud debris limiting instability from developing (like we saw today).
Cumulus clouds are starting to build up over the higher terrain. The center of high pressure overhead has situated over central to southern Arizona increasing temperatures leading to an Extreme Heat Warning. The high pressure center has shifted ever so slightly to the southwest from this morning leading to north to northwest mid- level winds over much of the area which is typically not a favorable wind alignment for thunderstorm development.
837 PM EDT Wed Jul 9 2025 * Scattered instances of flash flooding remain possible across portions of York and Lancaster Counties this evening * Continued seasonably warm and humid into mid July with daily chances for afternoon and evening thunderstorms Light to moderate rain continues this evening across the lower Susquehanna Valley, with the heaviest of that being in Lancaster County.
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: The ridge of high pressure will shift a bit more over the northern High Plains this afternoon and then collapse eastward tonight.
Overnight lows will be in the low to mid 70s. Bermuda high pressure will continue ridging wsw to across FL through Thu night. A northern stream s/w tracking slowly ewd across srn Quebec, Canada while the attendant trough moves ewd across the Appalachians. Both the s/w and the trough should lift newd late Thu night, while a weak s/w lingers over the Carolinas/mid-Atlantic. At the surface, relatively low pressure will prevail across much of central NC through Thu eve, then lift newd across the mid-Atlantic Thu night.
631 PM CDT Wed Jul 9 2025 -Cold front may generate strong to severe thunderstorms on Thursday.
647 PM CDT Wed Jul 9 2025 (Tonight through Thursday night) A 598dm Subtropical Ridge centered over southern Arizona will remain in place through the foreseeable future. Between this and weak ridging over the eastern Gulf, our region looks to be within a bit of a Col or area of weaker steering flow and a region of slightly elevated pressure between these two highs. The good news is that this Col should weaken as ridging strengthens somewhat Thursday and some Saharan dust works into our area.
Think the more south-southeasterly flow in the low to mid levels may keep the bulk of the dust near the coast and shifting north up the coast for today. To throw another wrench into the equation, a weak mid-level disturbance will be approaching the lower Texas coast.
- Cold front arrives shortly bringing isolated to scattered thunderstorms with gusty outflow winds. To our west, an upper level trough is centered north of the Lake Tahoe area and this feature will move towards eastern Idaho over the next 12-18 hours. Things will be quieter, and slightly cooler, tomorrow as cooler air filters in behind the trough. Winds will also lessen across the area as an area of high pressure settles in place for the weekend.
(Today through Friday night) An upper level trough prepares to dig south into our CWA Thursday night. This will reposition the the ridge further west for the next several days. Later in the afternoon, convection will initiate off the high terrain and move eastward.
Potentially Friday as well as a cold front pushes through the area.
Temperatures are running anywhere from 3 degrees warmer tonight than at this time last night across the lower elevations to up to 23 degrees warmer across the higher elevations. (This evening through Thursday) The warming trend kicks off today as as an area of broad high pressure extending from the Desert Southwest to the Eastern Pacific Ocean builds into place. Effects of this are already being observed with locations outside of the marine layer influence observing warmer conditions than what were observed 24 hours ago as well as the marine layer compressing about 600 feet in 24 hours which is indicative of subsidence aloft. Yet, temperatures will still remain near to below normal for all but the highest terrain today.
/NEW/ /Through Friday/ A weak trough aloft responsible for the past few evenings' convection currently bisects the CWA from northeast to southwest. North and Central Texas will subsequently have a day or two of largely rain-free weather and seasonable temperatures to end the work week, with lows in the 70s and highs in the lower to mid 90s.
Thursday will feature lower PoPs for the western half of the area with a trough axis along I-65.
- Highest probability for showers and storms occurs with with an incoming cold front on Friday. Weak upper ridging continues to impact the central plains this afternoon as the 1059mb ridge axis centers over the Four Corners Region. Weakening perturbation sinking southward into northern Kansas would be the only impetus for isolated convection to form by late afternoon north of the highway 36 corridor. Embedded upper troughing enters western Nebraska during the afternoon, keeping pops at bay until the evening period.
- Heat and humidity persists today mainly west of the James River valley, with high temperatures expected in the low to mid 90s and heat indices in the mid to upper 90s.
- Remaining mild throughout with highs around the low to mid 90s. The main threats with these storms will be large hail for our westernmost areas this afternoon and early evening thanks in part due to the higher lapse rates in that area. The other conditions of note is that the Low Level Jet has developed this evening.
Dewpoints are a bit higher than forecast in some areas, leading to the higher heat indices. Cold front moves through the region on Friday, bringing in cooler air as 850mb temps drop into the low to mid teens C.
1237 AM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025 Weak mid-level low pressure remains sandwiched along the lower Texas coast with high pressure across the Desert SW and eastern Gulf into this weekend. At the surface, high pressure holds across the Gulf, maintaining southeasterly flow across Deep South Texas through the forecast period.
Weak mid-level low pressure remains sandwiched along the lower Texas coast with high pressure across the Desert SW and eastern Gulf into this weekend. At the surface, high pressure holds across the Gulf, maintaining southeasterly flow across Deep South Texas through the forecast period.
Today and Thursday will be the warmest days of the week as high pressure over Arizona expands into California. Central Coast areas are a day behind as the lingering trough over northern California is limiting the warming there today. A strong onshore trend on Friday will force cooler maritime air into the valleys and bring high temperatures down 4-8 degrees from Thursday.
PWAT values will remain between the 75th to 90th percentile range with freezing levels around 14.
(Today through Friday) A mid to upper-level trough axis will provide a focus for numerous showers and storms today and again on Friday. The highest rain chances will be focused near and south of I-20, where PWAT values are expected to exceed 2 inches.
A robust and persistent upper-level ridge will expand across the Great Basin and Desert Southwest beginning Friday, resulting in strong subsidence, clear skies, and a prolonged period of well above- normal temperatures.
(Today) Hot and humid conditions will prevail today, with afternoon heat index values ranging from the upper 90s to near 105 degrees in most places, and actual air temperatures in the low to mid 90s.
Overnight lows tonight will range in the upper 60s over the eastern Ozarks to the low/mid 70s elsewhere. As a result, daily chances (30-60%) of showers and thunderstorms will exist, with the higher chances during the afternoon and evening hours. Afternoon highs will range in the mid/upper 80s to the low 90s through the weekend.
Once the wave pushes to the Front Range, a weak cold front will start dropping down from Wyoming and daytime heating and moisture should keep some convection going through the afternoon hours, mostly along the Continental Divide. Wouldn't be surprised to see some development over the higher terrain north of the I-70 corridor as well. High temperatures will be several degrees cooler than yesterday with similar high temps expected on Friday.
Then a return to 90s over the weekend as a ridge builds back in. Relief, in the form of cooler air is expected briefly Friday.
(This afternoon through Thursday night) An upper-level ridge of high pressure is hovering over northwestern Mexico and, with our region near its eastern edge. At the surface, an area of high pressure over the Gulf continues to bring moisture out of the south and southeast. This a result of the upper trough generating sufficient lift to kick up a few showers/storms as it translates into the central Great Plains.
A compact upper level low across northern Tamaulipas and Nuevo Leon, Mexico today is forecast to drift northwest up the Rio Grande tonight and open near and south of the region on Friday.
134 AM MDT Thu Jul 10 2025 - Cooler temps, closer to normal through Friday. Low pressure will exit the region today. Upper level flow turns northwest for the next couple days which will allow for cooler, more normal temperatures.
Skies will be mostly clear overnight, with lows in the lower 70s. An upper high is currently over Arizona/New Mexico, and will retrograde over the Desert Southwest on Thursday. Mostly sunny skies are expected on Thursday, with afternoon highs in the lower to mid 90s.
Water vapor imagery early this afternoon indicates mid-level ridging over the Desert Southwest with an upper jet max beginning to enter the Northern Plains. Weak forcing provided by small ripples in flow riding over the ridge is expected to be accompanied by a diurnal spark later this afternoon to produce chances for popup showers and storms. As prior forecasts have highlighted, a cold front is expected to arrive Friday afternoon and into the overnight hours.
A cold front will move western and north- central NY Thursday and showers and thunderstorms will develop in the afternoon.
However, some areas under the line has seen over three quarters of an inch of rain, and that trend will continue under the highest reflectivities. A cold front will move through the Northland starting Friday morning and will move southeast throughout the day. However, as the cold front moves through, there is a narrow window where shear increases just behind the front, which may be the extra boost needed to create a few severe storms.
And if this front can break a cap of warmer 850-700 mb air that will b in place thru Thursday evening. System moves east Friday as upper trough moves through but this trough may aid in developing a few severe storms in northeast into central and southern Minnesota Friday afteroon, with SPC marginal risk for severe in our far east and southeast fcst area.
This morning, a closed low was analyzed in northern Saskatchewan with quasi-zonal flow across North Dakota. A second, shallower trough was located in southern Idaho, with downstream troughing across the Ohio Valley region. There are two main areas to focus on for precipitation -- south central / southeast this afternoon and evening with the trough, and then this evening/tonight with the cold front. Temperatures will be much cooler, with highs generally in the 70s, and could see some lower 80s southeast.
At the surface, a trough of low pressure was noted in the lee of the central Rockies with weak high pressure to the east of the area. With freezing levels around 14 KFT, it looks to be difficult for storms to produce hail unless a discrete supercell can organize a solid mesocyclone. Models show the higher QPF amounts Friday night as the boundary slides south. So this is when the highest POPs are in the forecast.
Afternoon highs are expected to climb into the upper 80s over the eastern Ozarks, and the low 90s elsewhere. Afternoon highs are expected to climb into the upper 80s over the eastern Ozarks, and the low 90s elsewhere. Expect widespread temperatures in the low 90s on Friday, and the mid to upper 80s over the weekend.
This trough will start to advect moisture into our region out of the southwest later today and overnight. A broad Canadian trough dips southwards into the Upper Plains on Friday.
- There is a marginal risk of severe storms Friday afternoon and evening in advance of a cold front. Low temperatures tonight will range from the low 60s to low/mid 70s. An upper trough will be over the area on Friday which will enhance upper lift. A cold front will also be moving southward towards the area. Cooler temperatures are expected behind the front on Friday with highs in the mid 80s to mid 90s.
- A cold front will move over areas east of the Divide early Friday morning, becoming stationary along the Divide.
Farther west, a drier/warmer boundary layer is in place, with dew points in the 40s across much of northeastern WY and the Black Hills. Surface trof/front crosses the area late Thursday night into Friday.
This is mainly in response to Southeast TX being wedged between a high pressure systems situated over SW CONUS and another high pressure system situated over the eastern Gulf, allowing for weaknesses to pass overhead from time to time. For the upcoming weekend, our rain chances look to increase again as an upper level trough moves across the Southern Plains and PWs rise back to 1.
High pressure surface and aloft will hold over the Florida peninsula through the weekend.
- Localized elevated fire weather threat continues across the higher elevations. Low temperatures this morning hover in the middle to upper 50s for the lower elevations, up to the 60s and lower 70s in the higher elevations, and some drizzle is possible at the immediate coast. Temperatures will be peaking today as the ridge axis moves over California, with highs ranging from the 90s to near 102 inland, the middle 70s to the middle 80s near the Bays, and the upper 50s to lower 60s near the coast.
The highest moisture will be across the interior and SWFL areas. Afternoon temperature ware still set to climb up into the low to mid 90s with triple digit heat indices. The highest chances remain over interior and SWFL terminals.
/Issued 1227 AM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025/ /Through Friday/ A weak trough aloft responsible for the past few evenings' convection currently bisects the CWA from northeast to southwest. North and Central Texas will subsequently have a day or two of largely rain-free weather and seasonable temperatures to end the work week, with lows in the 70s and highs in the lower to mid 90s.
655 AM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025 (Today through Friday) A mid to upper-level trough axis will provide a focus for numerous showers and storms today and again on Friday. The highest rain chances will be focused near and south of I-20, where PWAT values are expected to exceed 2 inches.
303 AM MDT Thu Jul 10 2025 - Cold front moves through today bringing cooler temperatures, gusty winds, and a chance for rain.
640 AM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025 Weak mid-level low pressure remains sandwiched along the lower Texas coast with high pressure across the Desert SW and eastern Gulf into this weekend. At the surface, high pressure holds across the Gulf, maintaining southeasterly flow across Deep South Texas through the forecast period.