Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
117 PM EDT Sun May 11 2025 High pressure builds in for today through tomorrow, bringing pleasant weather to the region. Highs near 70F Today: Rising heights today as an upper-level ridge builds from the west. With subsidence aloft and high-pressure building in from the Great Lakes, skies will remain clear today. A dry cold front moves through this morning, keeping highs in the mid-60s to low 70s despite the sunshine. Lows in the 30s * Sunny and warmer Monday. Tonight: High pressure continues to build in tonight, allowing skies to remain clear. Tomorrow: The upper-level ridge axis shifts over the region with high pressure beginning to exit the region and move to the SE.
An upper low over southern Louisiana will meander over the Deep South through tonight, before slowly drifting NNE towards the Tennessee Valley. Unlike more showery conditions yesterday, limited sun despite mostly cloudy to cloudy conditions should allow area high temperatures to warm into the low/mid 70s, before better rain chances are realized in the later afternoon. A more persistent southerly flow will make for milder conditions, with low temperatures in the low/mid 60s.
Mid/upper level flow will continue to transition to more swly overnight and during the day Mon, leading to warmer/drier conditions all areas by afternoon. Doesn't appear we'll have enough moisture for any afternoon showers/t-storms, with just some modest convective cloudiness over the higher mountains expected.
117 PM CDT Sun May 11 2025 - Shower/thunderstorm chances (50-75%) increase tonight through Monday, with the highest chances east of Highway 65 Monday afternoon.
1218 PM CDT Sun May 11 2025 (Today through Monday) Key Messages: - Near normal highs, below normal lows As the mid to upper level low over the Ark-La-Tex region begins to move northeastward today, negative vorticity advection will move into the region in its wake. Daytime highs today are expected to be near normal with slightly above normal temperatures returning tomorrow as an upper level ridge begins to move into the area and onshore flow returns.
1149 AM MDT Sun May 11 2025 - Showers and thunderstorms capable of producing gusty outflow winds, small hail, and moderate rainfall rates will develop over the higher terrain this afternoon, mainly north of I-70.
A blocking pattern which has predominated the Conus will slowly open over the next several days as a series of progressive Pacific disturbances and strong jet energy dislodge cutoff negative height anomalies across the lower Mississippi River valley.
1214 PM CDT Sun May 11 2025 (Today through Monday) An upper-level low over the Lower Mississippi River Valley is expected to shift towards the Ohio River Valley Monday. With southeasterly winds returning by Monday, high temperatures are expected to climb to the low to mid 90s Monday afternoon.
255 PM EDT Sun May 11 2025 - Increasing clouds and warmer tonight.
318 PM CDT Sun May 11 2025 Late afternoon through tonight: The upper low has moved little today, and so there continues to be a concern for localized heavy rainfall as deep layer cyclonic flow and strong moisture convergence combine with moist (precipitable water up to 1.
(This evening through Monday Night) Considerable wrap around cloudiness is occurring across the eastern 2/3 of the region in association with the upper low situated just to our east. Ridge will begin building back into the area Monday and nudge the upper low further northeast.
A disturbance is expected to move through Central California beginning tomorrow, with increased winds and cooler temperatures starting today.
1219 PM CDT Sun May 11 2025 (Today through Monday) Upper low over western Louisiana early this morning with ridging off the Atlantic Coast and over the southern Rockies. At the surface, weak low pressure was centered near Jackson, with an occluded front to our north and east. Skies were mostly cloudy across the area at 3 AM CDT with temperatures generally in the lower and middle 60s, although there were a few upper 50s across northern portions of the area.
300 PM EDT Sun May 11 2025 - Mostly sunny/warm Monday - Several chances for showers/storms this week - Mostly sunny/warm Monday High pressure south of James Bay is producing clear skies across the Great Lakes. The clear skies will continue into Monday and temperatures will continue to warm into the 80s as the high drifts east and south flow increases. - Several chances for showers/storms this week An upper low over the deep South will drift north this week and bring increasing moisture/humidity with it. The first chance for precipitation will come Monday evening as a weak short wave rotates northward from the upper low over the lower TN Valley.
High pressure is expected to return late week. Deep moisture remains across our area as a warm front slowly lifts north. A closed mid level low will remain over the Lower Mississippi River Valley on Monday, making some slow northeast progress Monday night. Clouds and rain will keep temperatures cooler than normal.
(This evening through Monday night) Cold core, non-tropical, cutoff upper level low is still just northwest of the CWA. 2" air rotating around the low will move through the CWA later this afternoon and evening. If any decent storms do develop, large hail will be the main threat with such a deep upper low nearby as it causes mid level temps to be quite cold.
201 PM EDT Sun May 11 2025 High pressure will remain in place across the region today, providing dry conditions and above normal temperatures. An upper level low pressure system will lift north into the Ohio Valley through mid week, bringing occasional chances for showers and thunderstorms.
(Tonight through Monday night) Due to high pressure currently over the region, conditions will be mostly sunny and precipitation-free. Winds are expected to shift from a northerly direction to a south-southeasterly direction this evening into tonight, which will advect much warmer air into the region. High temperatures tomorrow will be much warmer than today, getting into the mid to upper 90s. Low temperatures tomorrow night will be about ten degrees warmer, getting down into the upper 60s to lower 70s.
704 PM EDT Sun May 11 2025 - Increasing clouds and warmer tonight.
616 PM CDT Sun May 11 2025 (Tonight through Monday night) Due to high pressure currently over the region, conditions will be mostly sunny and precipitation-free. Winds are expected to shift from a northerly direction to a south-southeasterly direction this evening into tonight, which will advect much warmer air into the region. High temperatures tomorrow will be much warmer than today, getting into the mid to upper 90s. Low temperatures tomorrow night will be about ten degrees warmer, getting down into the upper 60s to lower 70s.
711 PM EDT Sun May 11 2025 - Mostly sunny/warm Monday - Several chances for showers/storms this week - Mostly sunny/warm Monday High pressure south of James Bay is producing clear skies across the Great Lakes. The clear skies will continue into Monday and temperatures will continue to warm into the 80s as the high drifts east and south flow increases. - Several chances for showers/storms this week An upper low over the deep South will drift north this week and bring increasing moisture/humidity with it. The first chance for precipitation will come Monday evening as a weak short wave rotates northward from the upper low over the lower TN Valley.
623 PM CDT Sun May 11 2025 (Tonight through Monday night) The mid to upper level low influencing the local weather over the past few days will continue to shift northeastward through the period with ridging building aloft behind it. Lows on Monday night will run around 10 degrees warmer, and in the mid 60s to low 70s.
654 PM CDT Sun May 11 2025 (This evening through Monday Night) Considerable wrap around cloudiness is occurring across the eastern 2/3 of the region in association with the upper low situated just to our east. Ridge will begin building back into the area Monday and nudge the upper low further northeast.
Another round of instability showers are expected along and ahead of a trough of low pressure for Monday, especially in the afternoon. Strongest winds along ridges and near NV border.
643 PM CDT Sun May 11 2025 - Shower/thunderstorm chances (50-75%) increase tonight through Monday, with the highest chances east of Highway 65 Monday afternoon.
Cooler temperatures for the first half of the week rebound closer to normal for the second half of the week. (This evening through Monday) A relatively slow moving and positively tilted upper low will begin to move onshore tonight. There is a slight chance of an isolated thunderstorm Monday morning as the upper trough axis approaches the shoreline, but confidence is too low for mention in the forecast attm.
Lingering moisture with the parent upper low will keep scattered showers in the forecast for Monday. Upper level ridging will start to build into the area midweek for the return of warm and dry conditions.
718 PM CDT Sun May 11 2025 (This evening through Monday night) Cold core, non-tropical, cutoff upper level low is still just northwest of the CWA. 2" air rotating around the low will move through the CWA later this afternoon and evening. If any decent storms do develop, large hail will be the main threat with such a deep upper low nearby as it causes mid level temps to be quite cold.
640 PM CDT Sun May 11 2025 Late afternoon through tonight: The upper low has moved little today, and so there continues to be a concern for localized heavy rainfall as deep layer cyclonic flow and strong moisture convergence combine with moist (precipitable water up to 1.
- The next storm system will bring cooler temperatures and stronger winds mid-week, but the precipitation outcome is more uncertain. Above average temperatures continue into Monday as weak ridging aloft struggles to stay in place. Temperatures look to be slightly cooler with an increase in low level moisture and cloud cover.
This afternoon's satellite imagery shows cumulus clouds stretching across the higher elevations. With forecast soundings showing a near inverted-v profile, and SBCAPE values increasing to around 800 J/kg over the higher elevations, we anticipate some of the aforementioned cumulus growing enough to produce some scattered hi-based showers and weak storms this afternoon. Warm and dry conditions are still on track to persist into the start of the week as a lingering vertically stacked low over the Gulf states keeps Colorado under upper-level ridging for another day, despite an upper-level trough pushing ashore the Pacific Northwest on Monday.
(Today through Tuesday) Key Messages: - Near normal temperatures today, above normal Tuesday Onshore flow returns today advecting a warmer airmass as an upper- level ridge begins to move into the region. As our moisture increases, the aforementioned upper-level ridge will continue moving eastward with the ridge axis over West Texas Tuesday. Increased subsidence from the ridge and the increase in moisture will promote heat index values between 100-108 degrees for most of South Texas.
Another warm and pleasant day is in store for the region as ridging continues to dominate the forecast. That said, Satellite imagery combined with 500mb analysis is showing the ridge side of the Rex block slowly being absorbed into the more dominant flow to the north. CAM guidance also is not as thrilled about upper level CVA around the north and west sides of the low which were going to act as the primary lifting mechanism. Given the current satellite picture and the higher likelihood of drier air to the west counteracting the westward moisture transport, it is more likely that moisture will not advect as far west and rain chances will likely be concentrated along and east of the US-65 corridor.
A weak frontal passage ahead of a broad low continues to bring cooler temperatures and precipitation across southwest Washington and northwest Oregon.
pdf A deep south to southwest flow will continue today as a nearly vertically stacked low pressure system over the south MS Valley moves very slowly to the northeast. Have seen some brief rotation with storms early this morning but likely tied to the lifting warm front. May see a brief line of showers and storms, oriented north to south, along the advancing cold front later in the aftn but guidance differs on how well this system remains intact. High temperatures will be in the lower 80s, with lows tonight in the mid to upper 60s.
1238 AM CDT Mon May 12 2025 (Tonight through Monday night) Due to high pressure currently over the region, conditions will be mostly sunny and precipitation-free. Winds are expected to shift from a northerly direction to a south-southeasterly direction this evening into tonight, which will advect much warmer air into the region. High temperatures tomorrow will be much warmer than today, getting into the mid to upper 90s. Low temperatures tomorrow night will be about ten degrees warmer, getting down into the upper 60s to lower 70s.
- Warmer weather is on tap for this week. (Today) An upper low over Louisiana early this morning will lift north northeast today.
A cold front with upper-level support will be the name of the game over the next two days. Said cold front remains just off the California Coast with rain just beginning to reach the ground in Mendocino County (just to the north of our CWA). 00" respectively with locally higher totals in the higher terrain of the Bay Area. Interior Monterey and San Benito Counties may not receive measurable precipitation, but light drizzle can be expected, especially in the higher terrain with the help of orographic lift. Strong and gusty onshore winds will continue with the strongest winds expected in the higher terrain, gaps, and passes where gusts up to 40mph are expected.
(Today through Tuesday) Upper low looks to be centered over the northwest portion of our area early this morning with upper ridging to our east, north and west. At the surface, low pressure was over northern Mississippi, with high pressure over the southern Rockies and off the Carolina coast. The trough moving into the western part of the country will finally boot the upper low out of our area later today and tonight. Sunny and warmer on Tuesday with reasonable humidity levels.
After 6AM, temperatures begin to warm in earnest with highs today generally in the low/mid 70s. High pressure amplifies today with strong subsidence over the North Country. Clear skies will support strong radiation inversions, but a slight bump in dew points over will help keep tonight's lows warmer in 40s and low 50s. A trough will be moving along the backside of the upper ridge and could support a few isolated thunderstorms towards the St Lawrence Valley of NY.
The lingering moisture supporting today's convection is limited, as the highest PWAT anomalies generally remain below 150% of normal as drier air begins to move in. Tonight a trough will move onshore in the Pacific Northwest. As the trough moves inland into the Intermountain West, winds will increase throughout our CWA due to a strengthening pressure gradient and the mixing down of stronger winds aloft. Tuesday, broad southwesterly flow will remain over the area thanks to a longwave trough situated over Idaho and Nevada. The location of this trough will cause the surface pressure gradient to continue to tighten bringing another day of gusty winds. Some light precip will fall over the northern valleys and NE Utah ahead of the trough and surface cold front.
Winds will increase across northern Arizona through Tuesday as a Pacific trough approaches the area.
" Much cooler by Tuesday. East Idaho should see the threat of showers and isolated thunderstorms increase during the afternoon and into the evening across the Central Mountains as the low approaches, but the rest of East Idaho looks to remain dry.
(Today through Tuesday) Upper-level ridging looks to build over the Southern Plains through the period. Southeasterly surface flow and clear skies will allow temperatures to climb to the low to mid 90s this afternoon, and high temperatures to climb to the upper 90s to low 100s Tuesday.
(Monday through Tuesday night) The upper low that is over LA is expected to lift towards the NE tonight into Monday. This will lead to weak ridging over the region early this week as the next upper wave moves into the Pacific NW and then across portions of the western U. With ridging over the area, dry conditions are expected Monday and Tuesday. Sfc winds will also begin shifting toward the south Monday as lee troughing develops. Temperatures are expected to begin to warm early this week with highs mostly in the 80s Monday and mid 80s to mid 90s on Tuesday with warmer temperatures also expected at night (lows in 50s/ 60s).
Heading into Monday, we begin the slow transition from the influence of the upper low to reintroducing upper ridging, though the bulk of the upper ridge influence won't be until Tuesday, heading into mid- week. Given the gradual nature of the upper low departure, moisture on the backside of the low will be present along and east of the I- 49 corridor. The upper low will continue to lift and move out of the region through the late afternoon and evening, allowing for ridging to build in.
223 AM EDT Mon May 12 2025 Warm start to the week with high pressure overhead today.
Overall shear values remain similar, but instability appears to be a bit more muted overall with weaker lapse rates and the low pulling away. Temperatures start the morning in the lower to middle 60's, only warming into the upper 70's to near 80, warmest east of the I-65 corridor. MM/25 The meandering upper low will gradually begin to lift out of the region Monday night into Tuesday, which will signal the end to this seemingly long stretch of days with unsettled weather. The rest of the work week will generally feature warmer temperatures as we begin to dry out.
A weak cold front that has been stalled in the Gulf will start to push east and head through the state today. As we go through the second half of the week and into our weekend high pressure will start to settle back into the state as temperatures start to rise again.
127 AM CDT Mon May 12 2025 The cutoff low pressure system which has been centered over our region the last day or two will will continue to wobble overhead for the next 24 hours. Moist and moderately unstable conditions (in part due to cooler temps aloft) have been supporting showers and a few thunderstorms across our forecast area even into the overnight hours.
1122 PM CDT Sun May 11 2025 (This evening through Monday night) Cold core, non-tropical, cutoff upper level low is still just northwest of the CWA. 2" air rotating around the low will move through the CWA later this afternoon and evening. If any decent storms do develop, large hail will be the main threat with such a deep upper low nearby as it causes mid level temps to be quite cold.
- Next round of precipitation arrives late this afternoon/evening as a cold front begins to make its way through Eastern Idaho.
151 AM EDT Mon May 12 2025 High pressure will build southeast over the area tonight, then pass offshore Monday into Monday night. A broad area of low pressure will then impact the area through the end of the week. A cold frontal passage is possible over the weekend. High pressure centered near Lake Ontario will build SE toward the area tonight. Gusty NW-N winds late this afternoon should settle down this eve with loss of daytime heating/mixing and also veer NE then E as the high builds closer. As the high passes offshore, E winds to start should veer SE in the morning and then S by afternoon.
- Southerly wind gusts of 20-30 mph will remain common today, with the highest gusts in the downsloping areas near Superior. Additionally, a closed upper low still spins directly overhead Louisiana. Flow off Lake Michigan will keep temperatures in the east slightly cooler, only rising as high as 80 with the immediate lakeshore closer to 65-75. This, in combination with warmer temperatures and potentially lower RHs, will aid in elevated to critical wildfire conditions. However, 20-25 mph gusts remain possible overnight in the higher terrain and where southerly winds are downsloping.
A blocking pattern which has predominated the Conus will slowly open over the next several days as a series of progressive Pacific disturbances and strong jet energy dislodge cutoff negative height anomalies across the lower Mississippi River valley. Ensemble spread starts growing notably towards the end of the period as membership is split between maintaining negative height anomalies over the SW Conus, or shifting mean troughing into the eastern Conus and allowing broad ridging to materialize over the forecast area. CMC members remain the most amplified with negative anomalies centered over the forecast area with trends in GEFS membership pointing towards higher probabilities of amplified heights and/or flat ridging. Gusts will likely be most pronounced across ridge tops and in the typical downsloping areas.
The cutoff low pressure system which has been centered over our region the last day or two will will continue to wobble overhead for the next 24 hours. Moist and moderately unstable conditions (in part due to cooler temps aloft) have been supporting showers and a few thunderstorms across our forecast area even into the overnight hours.
A cutoff low remains parked across the lower MS valley with ridging across the northeastern half of the CONUS. The notable change is the arrival of a western CONUS trough axis.
Cooler temperatures for the first half of the week rebound closer to normal for the second half of the week.
1052 PM CDT Sun May 11 2025 (Tonight through Monday night) The mid to upper level low influencing the local weather over the past few days will continue to shift northeastward through the period with ridging building aloft behind it. Lows on Monday night will run around 10 degrees warmer, and in the mid 60s to low 70s.
Surface obs showed winds gusting 35 to 55 mph in the northwest zones and the higher terrain farther southeast. These winds were keeping the low levels well mixed, so temperatures were warm and dewpoints were low.
207 AM CDT Mon May 12 2025 Scattered SHRA continues to wrap around the north side of the upper low. Chances for SHRA and isolated TSRA will remain fairly high through this Mon afternoon into this evening before this upper low begins to exit to the east for Tue. upper level ridging will increase over the region. Upper ridging will increase further for Wed. flow aloft will transition to the SW over the region as the upper ridging shifts east. This SW flow aloft will set up another active pattern across the region for later in the week as a cold front approaches from the NW. (06Z TAFS) Isolated to scattered showers and occasional thunderstorms will be seen across the area as an upper level low moves from southern LA to western TN through the period.
(Today and tonight) Current mid-level satellite water vapor imagery has the upper low spinning over Louisiana early this morning, but is expected to lift north into the Tennessee Valley by this evening. Lee troughing will develop with a return to southerly surface flow across most of the forecast area.
Otherwise temps will be even warmer today with readings in the mid 80's to lower 90's across nern CO. This afternoon's satellite imagery shows cumulus clouds stretching across the higher elevations. With forecast soundings showing a near inverted-v profile, and SBCAPE values increasing to around 800 J/kg over the higher elevations, we anticipate some of the aforementioned cumulus growing enough to produce some scattered hi-based showers and weak storms this afternoon. Warm and dry conditions are still on track to persist into the start of the week as a lingering vertically stacked low over the Gulf states keeps Colorado under upper-level ridging for another day, despite an upper-level trough pushing ashore the Pacific Northwest on Monday.
A broad upper-level ridge remains in place over the High Plains and Great Lakes this morning while a cutoff low resides over Louisiana.
640 AM EDT Mon May 12 2025 Warm start to the week with high pressure overhead today.