Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Timing and location are still quite uncertain, but SE oriented LLJ will be present as the warm front advances into IL from the west. Thunderstorms are expected to develop along the lows warm front/within the warm sector over Minnesota/Wisconsin tonight and track southeast along an instability gradient.
727 PM EDT Mon Jun 24 2024 Dry and cooler weather is expected tonight under high pressure.
Temperatures remain quite warm across the Mid-South at this hour with readings in the low to mid 80s.
1008 PM EDT Mon Jun 24 2024 High pressure will build overhead tonight bringing a clear and cool summer night.
700 PM EDT Mon Jun 24 2024 Dry and cooler weather is expected tonight under high pressure.
Expect high clouds during the morning Wednesday and a couple high resolution models are introducing warm frontal showers before noon, although a dry surface may only allow for virga showers or sprinkles.
High pressure over the upper Ohio Valley and a mostly dry atmosphere will lead to clear skies and light winds for southern Indiana and central Kentucky tonight. Highs are expected to be in the lower and middle 90s. The cold front will approach from the northwest Tuesday night and move through the region sometime around Wednesday afternoon, though there will likely be myriad convectively induced boundaries in the area Tuesday night and Wednesday as well.
Otherwise, hot conditions will continue today (and beyond) with Oklahoma and north Texas on the northeast periphery of a ~593 dam mid-level ridge.
Synopsis The weather pattern in South Texas remains relatively unchanged, dominated by an upper-level high-pressure system over W TX. Forecast models show the high-pressure center retrograding slightly westward today and tonight. Meanwhile a weak inverted trough moves west today around the southern periphery of the high. Despite this feature, subsidence from the high-pressure system will keep rain chances low (5-20%) today then have silent PoP's tonight and tomorrow. Temperature and Humidity - Moisture Levels: Abundant moisture will persist in the lower levels, with precipitable water (PWAT) values around 2 inches through this morning, then dropping to around 1.
239 AM EDT Tue Jun 25 2024 High pressure remains in control through tonight, providing clear skies and less humid conditions.
Upper level high pressure remains anchored over New Mexico and Arizona. A few subtle changes include the potential expansion of the ridge northward over Colorado which would favor a more northerly mid level flow over the western counties while farther east across the eastern half of the forecast area should retain a bit more of a westerly component to its mid level flow. This would come into play should thunderstorms develop in the low level theta-e ridge axis extending from east-central New Mexico to the western Texas Panhandle and the along a weak frontal boundary that could make its way into the Oklahoma and northern Texas panhandles.
110 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024 (This evening through Tuesday) An upper level ridge centered over Chihuahua is expected to persist through the short term period, gradually edging northward into Tuesday. The influence of this ridge should continue the upward trend in temperatures, with Tuesday's highs exceeding 100 degrees F off the Caprock and across the southern South Plains. Westerly flow aloft should turn NNW by Tuesday evening as the center of the upper-level ridge moves over Las Cruces.
The upper level ridge across the area continues to retrograde toward the swrn US. As the ridge continues to retrograde over the southwestern US, a northwesterly flow pattern will develop across the area, and a surface cold front will start to push into the area Wednesday. The cold front isn't actually 'cold' per se, but will bring some slightly cooler and drier air to the reason.
A gradual cooling trend will continue through midweek as high pressure weakens over the area and onshore flow strengthens.
1215 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024 (Tonight through Tuesday night) The upper level ridge centered over and northwest of the area will continue to produce for most locations a dry forecast through the short term. Beneath the ridge is a pool of elevated moisture across the Coastal Plains and there is a 10-20% chance of stray to isolated tropical showers and thunderstorms in forecast this afternoon across this area.
(Today through Wednesday) An upper-level ridge over the western US will keep things fairly quiet through the short term period. Skies will likely range from partly cloudy to mostly sunny this afternoon, fostering additional heating and warmer high temperatures.
(Tuesday through Wednesday) Upper level ridging will continue to influence most of the region today, but the center of the ridge will shift westward into the Four Corners region of the country. This will put our Southern Arkansas and Louisiana zones on the eastern fringe of the ridge. On Wednesday, the center of the ridge will remain across the Four Corners region. At the same time, the eastern periphery of the ridge is forecast to erode, allowing for northwesterly flow to develop over most of our area.
1254 AM EDT Tue Jun 25 2024 Dry and cooler weather is expected tonight under high pressure. KEY MESSAGES: - Quiet with light winds under high pressure tonight. High pressure centered along the OH/IN border currently will head across OH this evening and into PA after midnight. ------------------------------------------------------------------- WNW flow at 500 mb with heights in the lower 5800s is expected with somewhat warmer temperatures and gradually rising Tds on Tuesday. Trough pushes across Ohio River Valley with 60 meter height falls expected Wednesday over the forecast area.
This disturbance will help drag a cold front south to near the Red River, where it will stall on Wednesday.
(Today and tonight) Upper level ridge will remain in place across West Central Texas, centered along the Texas and New Mexico border.
Heat and humidity have taken firm hold thanks to two high pressure areas stalled across the US working in tandem to create a hot, muggy, and challenging weather pattern. This is the product of an upper level trough which slides across the upper Midwest.
A stationary front over northwest Arkansas has migrated back over our area as a warm front. Southerly winds are advecting warm, moist air over our area, with dewpoints in the low to mid 70s. Lows tonight will offer little reprieve from the heat, remaining in the low 70s east of Highway 65, and the mid to upper 70s west of Highway 65. Remember to stay cool and hydrated! Beginning on Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, a ridging pattern begins to develop over the western U. The ridging pattern developing to our west will continue to influence temperatures this week.
The center of the upper ridge will shift west today allowing for slightly better moisture to make its way in to the region along with less subsidence. Given weak northerly flow around the ridge storm will have a southern trajectory. Temperatures will continue an upward trend today with highs reaching 100 for all but the higher terrain above 5K ft.
With the broad mid-level ridging stretched across the lower CONUS, forcing for ascent is rather nil across the area this morning. At the same time, an open short wave trough will emerge from the mid-Missouri Valley.
A more significant risk for strong to severe storms will materialize late this afternoon into this evening as a cold front dropping southward from the Northern Plains interacts with a moderately unstable, but weakly sheared environment. May see some large hail as well, but with lower SBCAPE values and the freezing level near 15,000ft, think the potential for hail larger than golf balls is slim. Based on model consensus, have kept PoPs in the chance category through the day, then have ramped up to likely to categorical (70-80%) this evening as areal coverage increases in advance of the cold front. Barnes Once the front passes, high pressure will build into the Great Lakes and bring central Illinois a period of comfortable weather.
Surface analysis indicates that the Atlantic ridge axis has settled southward into the Straits during the night, with a front extending from the western Atlantic into the Southeastern states. Aloft, the weak mid/upper trough which has lingered near Florida for the past few days has shifted eastward into the Bahamas, with satellite imagery showing the associated cloudiness and convection extending from the Bahamas eastward across the Atlantic for several hundred miles. Some mid-level weakness still lingers across our region, to the south and southwest of a mid latitude trough moving offshore from the Eastern Seaboard. Weak WSW low level flow, ample moisture in place, and the lack of a dominant ridge aloft all should favor island cloud line development during the day, with above average potential for waterspouts.
229 AM EDT Tue Jun 25 2024 Warmer today. Showers and thunderstorms with a cold front Wednesday.
125 AM EDT Tue Jun 25 2024 High pressure will build overhead tonight bringing a clear and cool summer night. Heat will build again by Wednesday leading to a chance of thunderstorms by late in the day and Wednesday night as a cold front passes.
3â) pooled over the area, as well as diurnal heating, moderate instability, and subtle mid-level troughing. The low to mid level wind fields will be quite weak overall, leading to slow storm motions and localized flooding concerns in poor drainage areas or locations that see multiple rounds of storms.
(Today through Wednesday Night) Broad mid-upper ridging across sw/s parts of the country will dominate regional wx keeping temps slightly above seasonable norms. Ridging expands a bit further northward into the Rockies, putting us in more of a northerly flow aloft.
400 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024 *Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms possible this afternoon and evening *Cooler temperatures across northern Nebraska this afternoon *Another chance for strong to severe thunderstorms Wednesday *Additional precipitation chances at the end of the week A weak cold front that has pushed across northern Nebraska will keep temperatures cooler with highs in the low to mid 80s across northern Nebraska.
(Today through Wednesday) Upper ridging extended from southern California to western Louisiana early this morning with troughing just off the Atlantic Coast to the northeastern Gulf of Mexico.
(Today through Wednesday) The upper level ridge is forecast to center northwest of the area, with the southeast periphery of the ridge still maintaining an influence over most of the area today. We saw a few locations east of I- 35 briefly reach heat advisory criteria late yesterday, and with temperatures at or slightly warmer today we are forecasting a larger area of peak heat index values of 105-110 degrees along and east of the I-35 and I-37 corridors.
A strong U/L ridge over the southern plains and desert southwest, which extends across the Gulf of Mexico and Florida peninsula, will continue to gradually retrograde over the next couple of days. A weakness in the subtropical ridge will develop along the eastern seaboard which will allow a weak U/L trough to sink south over the Florida peninsula Tuesday night and Wednesday.
350 AM EDT Tue Jun 25 2024 A cold front will be stalled in the area today before lifting back to the north on Wednesday.
425 AM EDT Tue Jun 25 2024 (Today through Wednesday) For today and the better part of the day Wednesday, north and central Georgia will be situated under a relative lull in our presiding flow pattern, with exiting troughing resulting in weakly northwesterly flow at the mid-levels. Unhampered warming under sunny skies will allow temperatures to rebound into the upper-90s areawide (apart from northeast Georgia, relegated to the mid-80s to near 90), with the lower triple digits possible once again for areas along and south of a line extending from Columbus to Macon. As a result, peak afternoon heat index values will be within a degree or two of actual temperatures, and perhaps even slightly "cooler" than actual highs this afternoon.
(Today & Tonight) Upper level ridging begins to slide westward this morning, becoming increasingly centered over the Four Corners region. At the surface, lee troughing will maintain S-SW flow through the day with warmer temps focused W of Hwy 75 in N OK.
(Tuesday through Wednesday night) The region will be between high pressure to the east southeast, and a series of troughs which will each stall just to the northwest of the area this period.
Ridging will begin to build in late today and begin to break down ahead of a Pacific low early Wednesday. Into Wednesday afternoon, southeast flow in the low levels will advect in warm air and moisture (PWATs ~1-1.
119 AM EDT Tue Jun 25 2024 A cold front moving into the area will bring thunderstorms to the area this evening.
Temperatures remain slightly above seasonal values, generally in the low 90s.
655 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024 *Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms possible this afternoon and evening *Cooler temperatures across northern Nebraska this afternoon *Another chance for strong to severe thunderstorms Wednesday *Additional precipitation chances at the end of the week A weak cold front that has pushed across northern Nebraska will keep temperatures cooler with highs in the low to mid 80s across northern Nebraska.
514 AM EDT Tue Jun 25 2024 There is a slight chance of showers and storms this afternoon if the remnants of an upstream convective system hold together and cross the region, but chances are better that most locations will remain dry with warmer temperatures. More widespread showers and storms are expected Wednesday with the approach and passage of a cold front. KEY MESSAGES: - Slight chance of showers/storms depending on an upstream MCS, otherwise, dry with warmer temperatures. A trough and associated cold front cross the region Wednesday, with a late afternoon/evening FROPA.
A passing system favors widespread rainfall and some cooler temperatures for the end of the week. Under the influence of an upper level ridge, mild and dry conditions are forecast.
More widespread showers and storms are expected Wednesday with the approach and passage of a cold front. ------------------------------------------------------------------- A trough and associated cold front cross the region Wednesday, with a late afternoon/evening FROPA.
The sea breeze collision is forecast to occur across the interior this afternoon, where the highest coverage of showers and storms (PoP 60-70 percent) is located this afternoon and into early evening. Temperatures will continue to be hot and muggy today, with afternoon highs in the low to mid 90s with peak heat indices ranging from 102 to 106 degrees.
604 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024 (Today & Tonight) Upper level ridging begins to slide westward this morning, becoming increasingly centered over the Four Corners region. At the surface, lee troughing will maintain S-SW flow through the day with warmer temps focused W of Hwy 75 in N OK.
618 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024 (Today through Wednesday) An upper-level ridge over the western US will keep things fairly quiet through the short term period. Skies will likely range from partly cloudy to mostly sunny this afternoon, fostering additional heating and warmer high temperatures.
(Today and tonight) Lift associated with an upper level low approaching the Pacific Northwest over the next couple of days, is producing scattered showers over the open water to our west. Lightning even farther west and closer to the base of the trough can currently be seen tracking northeast overnight. The persistent ridging over the desert southwest will deflect the strongest energy associated with the trough to our north over the next twenty four hours. Later tonight into early Wednesday, upper level flow across our latitude becomes more zonal as the upper level low moves onshore into Washington state.
623 AM EDT Tue Jun 25 2024 High pressure remains in control through tonight, providing clear skies and less humid conditions.
Another day of warm, dry conditions is expected as a weak ridge overhead shifts eastward through the day.
620 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024 (Today through Wednesday) The upper level ridge is forecast to center northwest of the area, with the southeast periphery of the ridge still maintaining an influence over most of the area today. We saw a few locations east of I- 35 briefly reach heat advisory criteria late yesterday, and with temperatures at or slightly warmer today we are forecasting a larger area of peak heat index values of 105-110 degrees along and east of the I-35 and I-37 corridors.
------------------------------------------------------------------- A mesoscale convection system (MCS) continues to dive south, within an elongated ridge, across the Great Lakes early this morning. However, the overall intensity will rapidly dissolve with time given warm air associated with the ridge. ------------------------------------------------------------------- A trough and associated cold front cross the region Wednesday, with a late afternoon/evening FROPA.
928 AM EDT Tue Jun 25 2024 High pressure remains in control through tonight, providing clear skies and less humid conditions.
Max temps today will top out in the low to mid 90's.
553 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024 (Tuesday through Wednesday) Upper level ridging will continue to influence most of the region today, but the center of the ridge will shift westward into the Four Corners region of the country. This will put our Southern Arkansas and Louisiana zones on the eastern fringe of the ridge. On Wednesday, the center of the ridge will remain across the Four Corners region. At the same time, the eastern periphery of the ridge is forecast to erode, allowing for northwesterly flow to develop over most of our area.
Aside from this divot in low level heights, the lower tropospheric ridge extends from the western North Atlantic to a node near the Mississippi River Valley. Light southwesterly breezes prevail across the Florida Keys with the trough to our north and a lazy ridge axis to our south.
639 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024 (Today and tonight) Upper level ridge will remain in place across West Central Texas, centered along the Texas and New Mexico border.
(This afternoon through Wednesday night) Upper ridging overhead continues to dominate the weather in the short term, though the center of the ridge has nudged westward some compared to yesterday. If for whatever reason Midland doesn't hit 100 degrees today, we likely will tomorrow as temperatures will likely be a touch warmer owing to a slightly stronger ridge that wobbles a bit back to the east. A stronger ridge argues for less shower activity, once again limited to only the Davis Mountains and far western high terrain.
224 PM MDT Tue Jun 25 2024 - Another hot/dry day today, but cooler than previous days and with less wind.
Low pressure will arrive later tonight and Wednesday, bring cooler temperatures, clouds and even a few showers.
A passing system favors widespread rainfall and some cooler temperatures for the end of the week. Ridging aloft will bring dry conditions while northerly breezes associated with a weak cold front maintain near average temperatures. Unsettled conditions and shower and thunderstorm chances return on Wednesday in advance of an approaching Pacific trough. As high pressure aloft builds into the Pacific Northwest after 15Z, the winds aloft and turbulence decrease across the area. A more northwesterly flow aloft moves a weak disturbance and associated weak Canadian cold front southeast over the plains. Under the influence of an upper level ridge, mild and dry conditions are forecast.
226 PM EDT Tue Jun 25 2024 High pressure will drift off of the Mid Atlantic Coast tonight, allowing increasing moisture to return to the region. Heat will build again by Wednesday leading to a chance of thunderstorms by late in the day and Wednesday night as a cold front pushes through the state.
pdf The region is between high pressure to the east, and a trough to the north northwest Today.
- A cold front late tonight will mark the beginning of an active stretch of nightly thunderstorms rolling east across western Kansas, mainly at night.
Details: Dry conditions expected the rest through tonight as that weak area of high pressure slides overhead. Definitely a bit cooler tomorrow, with highs only expected to top out in the 60s north of the big bridge, and from the mid 60s north to mid 70s southeast across northern lower Michigan. A ridge of high pressure builds over the Great Lakes Region as a trough swings out of the forecast area by Wednesday night.
Tomorrow continues to appear to be our best rain chances over the next 7 days as an upper trough swings down from the north, forcing a cold front across the region.
(Tonight through Wednesday night) Key Messages: - Heat Advisory in effect through 7 PM this evening for the Southern Coastal Bend - Potential for some tropical funnels again tomorrow morning Due to the higher afternoon temperatures and abundance of moisture in the region aiding upper 70s dew points, areas along the Southern Coastal Bend are seeing heat indices around 110-114F.
Upper ridge remains entrenched across west Texas through the short term, with afternoon highs continuing to climb into the upper 90s to around 100 degrees.
Water vapor imagery and CIMSS products suggest mean layer ridging centered near Texas reaches east to near the Keys.
Chances will be better for scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will be possible as an upper-level trough moves through the region. Under south-southwesterly flow, strong warm air advection will help push temperatures into the 80s and even the low 90s in some lower elevations in NEPA. Lapse rates in the lower levels will be fairly steep, but that will not be the case in the mid-levels. Short-range guidance is a bit delayed with bringing precipitation in ahead of a cold front and very few show much in the way for convective showers. There is some uncertainty on how conditions will play out tomorrow based on the location of a warm front, but a slight shift north or south could change what the region sees.
131 PM EDT Tue Jun 25 2024 Warmer today. Chance for showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and with a cold front Wednesday.
pdf The pattern will continue through the night with region between high to the east and trough to the north northwest.
------------------------------------------------------------------- A mesoscale convection system (MCS) continues to dive south, within an elongated ridge.
1238 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024 (Today and tonight) Upper level ridge will remain in place across West Central Texas, centered along the Texas and New Mexico border.
303 PM EDT Tue Jun 25 2024 A cold front crossing the region on Wednesday will bring a return of showers and thunderstorms, especially in the afternoon and evening.
A ridge of high pressure which has brought us a nice sunny and warm day, will be shoved eastward late Wednesday as a low pressure trough and cold front approach the area.
The combination of increased moisture and precipitation development will help keep temps slightly cooler across the region for Wednesday, but highs will still range in the upper 80s to low 90s many low elevation areas.
(This afternoon through Wednesday) The 700mb portion of the ridge is centered just west of Central Alabama this afternoon, and we have a very hot and dry airmass across the area. Short term models have really come into better agreement this morning on a brief breakdown in the ridge tomorrow as a low to mid- level trough moves across the region. A complex of thunderstorms is progged to develop along a cold front over the Midwest tomorrow morning and quickly advance south into the Midsouth region. Strong outflow driven storms will move into northern Mississippi by midday with additional thunderstorms expected to develop across western portions of Central Alabama during the afternoon as moisture increases dramatically with the trough axis.
With the low-level winds remaining weak to moderate out of the SW, expect a convective regime of showers and thunderstorms first developing along sea breeze boundaries late this morning/early this afternoon, then moving interior/East Coast metro areas.