Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
However, additional showers and thunderstorms are expected to form along any remnant outflow from this activity, as well as along and ahead of a cold front currently approaching the Ohio River, based on the latest HRRR model runs. (Monday through next Sunday) Front will pass through the area tonight with a drier and slightly cooler airmass filtering in behind the boundary for Monday, with highs a couple degrees lower than today.
(This evening through Monday Night) Stacked surface and upper-level ridge across the region has maintained light and variable winds this afternoon with temperatures currently in the lower 90s. Low-level moisture, characterized by dewpoint in the lower 70s, has allowed for scattered cu to develop within the boundary layer this afternoon. Subsidence from the upper-ridge aloft will suppress cloud growth through the afternoon, maintaining a dry forecast tonight and into Monday and Monday night.
A 593dm upper ridge will become centered across portions of the Trans-Pecos region and extend across a large portion of Texas. That being said, gusty southwest winds will bring in warmer continental air that could increase our temperatures higher than currently forecast and result in the need for a heat advisory, especially for Palo Duro Canyon.
Tomorrow could see the threat for severe weather as a cold front approaches the area. The front should be pushing into the area around the morning along with a line of showers and storms which will make the high temp forecast difficult with increasing cloudiness. Went a bit warmer with the SW flow ahead of the line, highs in the mid 90s. Pops will linger into Monday evening via a cold front and mid level trough.
Heat advisory conditions are already being observed across a good portion of NE OK and into west-central AR in the lower Ark River valley. While lows are expected to cool off into the lower 70s over in the Ozarks, there is not much relief from the heat expected tonight across E OK, where lows in the mid to upper 70s will be common. The lower Ark River valley of west-central Arkansas, including FSM, could see heat warning criteria.
Temperatures across the valley are already in the low to mid 70s this morning, with the Boise airport at 79F as of 8:55AM MDT. Most of the lower Treasure Valley will reach the upper 90s to low 100s. Breezy westerly winds will return by the afternoon as the upper level pressure gradient tightens due to a trough passage to the north. The highest winds (W-NW 20-30 mph) will be on ridgetops and above ~5000 feet.
As of 10 AM, heat indices had already risen into the lower-middle 90s for many locations across the forecast area. Mejia (Today) Mostly westward expansion of the upper ridge will continue today, and will result in slightly warmer temps and a small increase in relative humidity.
Highs this afternoon are forecast to rise into the lower to mid 90s east of I-65 and into the mid to upper 90s west.
The weekend comes to an end with hot and dry conditions, as a potent area of high pressure builds back into the region.
Tonight, thunderstorms will largely become just showers and showers will become less widespread in coverage as we lose daytime heating and a relatively drier air mass moves into place behind a cold front. Still, lows will only fall into the lower to mid 60s, a few degrees above seasonable averages. For tomorrow, an upper level low containing cooler air will slide across the forecast area, which may produce some low topped showers. High temperatures will be about 5-10 degrees cooler than average in the upper 60s to lower 70s.
Mid-level moisture was still prevalent rotating around the ridge although most activity will be confined to eastern New Mexico and into the central and northern Texas Panhandle. Upper level ridging will continue to linger over central Texas and slowly drift westward through Monday centering over El Paso by Monday afternoon. This will act to shunt the mid-level moisture farther to the north rotating around the ridge and eliminate any chances of isolated convection for Monday afternoon.
(Tonight) A broken line of showers with a few embedded thunderstorms ahead of a surface cold front continues to progress southeast over Tennessee this afternoon.
1243 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024 A weak cold front currently stretches from the Great Lakes southwestward to Southeast Missouri/North Central Arkansas. KRM An approaching weak cold front combined with a warm, moist, and unstable airmass may result in the potential for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms across portions of the Mid- South, especially during peak daytime heating.
Heat index values this afternoon and Monday afternoon are expected to rise into the 100 to 110 range due to the combination of the subtropical ridge overhead, residual surface moisture from recent rain, and moisture advection from the Gulf.
1217 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024 (Today through Monday afternoon) The trend of warmer temperatures will continue today into Monday. After a few "cooler" days we should finally reach normal this afternoon which is mid 90s for most. Ridging directly overhead is producing enough subsidence to keep any rain at bay.
1208 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024 (Today and tonight) Similar weather expected today as yesterday with the upper level high positioning itself over the region this afternoon. This will lead to yet another day of dry and warmer conditions across the FA.
Above normal rain chances will continue as long as the moisture sticks around as well as the trough aloft that has been lingering over Florida. Into the middle to latter part of this week the Atlantic high pressure will build in and with the associated mid-level ridging, we will see a slackening of winds, and moistures return to near normal. From synopsis, high pressure over the western Atlantic and low pressure over the Bay of Campeche will maintain light to gentle east to southeast breezes through Monday evening. The western Atlantic ridge will settle southward into the Florida Straits during the middle and latter part of the week, with light southwest to west breezes prevailing over the Keys waters.
348 PM EDT Sun Jun 23 2024 A strong cold front will bring scattered severe storms to the region this evening before pushing offshore tonight. Showers will develop Monday with an upper level low overhead.
Although there's some 2000-3000 J/kg of CAPE over the area to work with as well as decent shear values, seems like a trigger mechanism to get things going is pretty absent until overnight when a weak cold front moves through.
1014 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024 Upper-level ridge centered over Texas to maintain sufficient subsidence to allow for temperatures across the region to climb into the mid to upper 90s. The combination of temperatures and afternoon dewpoint values in the lower 70s, will drive heat index values to around 105 degrees today.
A series of cold fronts will move through the Mid-South over the next seven days.
Additionally, a plume of very dry air aloft has moved into northern New York and far northwestern Vermont ahead of the upstream cold front to minimize deep convection. Tonight, thunderstorms will largely become just showers and showers will become less widespread in coverage as we lose daytime heating and a relatively drier air mass moves into place behind a cold front. Still, lows will only fall into the lower to mid 60s, a few degrees above seasonable averages. For tomorrow, an upper level low containing cooler air will slide across the forecast area, which may produce some low topped showers. High temperatures will be about 5-10 degrees cooler than average in the upper 60s to lower 70s.
911 PM EDT Sun Jun 23 2024 A cold front will cross the region tonight with showers and thunderstorms tapering off. An upper level disturbance will bring cooler and less humid weather on Monday with a few additional showers.
614 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024 (This afternoon through Monday night) This afternoon, subsidence due to a westward expanding ridge of high pressure is maintaining mostly sunny skies across the region, with only a few diurnal cumulus popping up over the higher terrain of Southwest Texas. Chances are slim to none for any storms to develop this afternoon, with highs progged to top out near normal in the lower to middle 90s across the plains, 100s for portions of the Pecos and Rio Grande Valleys, and upper 80s in the mountains.
The lower Ark River valley of west-central Arkansas, including FSM, could see heat warning criteria.
733 PM EDT Sun Jun 23 2024 Scattered showers and thunderstorms will come to an end early this evening with the passage of a cold front.
930 PM EDT Sun Jun 23 2024 Showers and thunderstorms will gradually end tonight after the passage of a cold front. KEY MESSAGES: - Severe thunderstorm threat diminishing tonight - Cooler temperatures tonight. ------------------------------------------------------------------- The latest mesoanalysis indicates the surface cold front is crossing southwestern PA through SE OH.
We will be monitoring for the potential for a few clouds and even a few showers overnight over mainly north central SD, with chances remaining below 20 percent at this time with the higher chances remaining across ND. Upper level ridging will be dominant over the region tonight into Monday morning, before flattening out to become more zonal Monday afternoon. At the surface, the region will be between high pressure to the east and low pressure to the west tonight, with the low to the west making it to the western Dakotas by Monday morning.
237 PM PDT Sun Jun 23 2024 A dry cold front Today will lead to critical fire weather concerns over portions of central and eastern Washington with widespread breezy to windy conditions.
1052 PM EDT Sun Jun 23 2024 Cooler less humid air will filter into the region tonight.
757 PM EDT Sun Jun 23 2024 A cold front will cross the region tonight with showers and thunderstorms tapering off. An upper level disturbance will bring cooler and less humid weather on Monday with a few additional showers.
1004 PM EDT Sun Jun 23 2024 Showers and thunderstorms will gradually end tonight after the passage of a cold front. KEY MESSAGES: - Thunderstorms ending tonight - Cooler temperatures tonight. The latest mesoanalysis indicates the surface cold front is crossing southwestern PA through SE OH.
These clouds are associated with a weak disturbance aloft and a cold front in Northern Arkansas, which will remain north of the region. CN (This evening through Monday Night) Stacked surface and upper-level ridge across the region has maintained light and variable winds this afternoon with temperatures currently in the lower 90s. Low-level moisture, characterized by dewpoint in the lower 70s, has allowed for scattered cu to develop within the boundary layer this afternoon. Subsidence from the upper-ridge aloft will suppress cloud growth through the afternoon, maintaining a dry forecast tonight and into Monday and Monday night.
755 PM EDT Sun Jun 23 2024 A strong cold front will bring scattered severe storms to the region this evening before pushing offshore tonight. Showers will develop Monday with an upper level low overhead.
High pressure in the western North Atlantic is extending across the Florida Peninsula and providing the Keys with gentle to moderate east to southeast breezes. Temperatures are in the lower 80s and dew points are steadily in the mid 70s. Guidance is suggesting another decrease in winds over the next few hours as the ridge axis sinks slightly southward, which generally isn't as favorable for shower development. From synopsis, high pressure over the western Atlantic and low pressure over the Bay of Campeche will maintain light to gentle east to southeast breezes through Monday evening. The western Atlantic ridge will settle southward into the Florida Straits during the middle and latter part of the week, with light southwest to west breezes prevailing over the Keys waters.
345 PM PDT Sun Jun 23 2024 A dry cold front Today will lead to critical fire weather concerns over portions of central and eastern Washington with widespread breezy to windy conditions.
For the rest of the afternoon into early this evening, an upper level disturbance/500mb trough will swing across the area. Trended toward the cooler guidance values across the north due to the longer duration of clear skies and light winds. A warm front will bring a threat of strong to severe storms into the area Monday night. The storms should develop on the nose of a 40-45 kt LLJ, and just north of the warm front. The track of the MCS is unknown, and likely dependent on the location of the warm front, but current model consensus shows the main threat area south of Hwy 29.
657 PM EDT Sun Jun 23 2024 Cooler less humid air will filter into the region tonight.
926 PM EDT Sun Jun 23 2024 A storm did become severe earlier this evening due to the high DCAPES (1200 J/Kg) along the west-most region of better instability. Monday will be dry and slightly cooler with dew points in the 60s by afternoon. Discussion: A trough is moving into the region from the Ohio Valley this afternoon. The surface cold front is currently (215 PM EDT) near SE Missouri/NE Arkansas. The best chance for strong showers and storms and the most coverage will be mid to late evening as the cold front moves into Middle Tennessee. The cold front will move through in the early morning hours. Monday will be dry with slightly cooler temps.
The sprawling upper level ridge of high pressure draped over Texas and New Mexico will linger over the region through Monday, though it does appear the center of this feature may retrograde very slightly, placing North Texas on its northwest flank.
(This evening through Monday night) A very broad upper level ridge centered near the Desert Southwest extends across nearly the entire southern half of the country. This is the same high pressure system that was northeast of the local area last week.
625 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024 (This evening through Monday night) A very broad upper level ridge centered near the Desert Southwest extends across nearly the entire southern half of the country. This is the same high pressure system that was northeast of the local area last week.
725 PM EDT Sun Jun 23 2024 A cold front will cross the region tonight with showers and thunderstorms tapering off. An upper level disturbance will bring cooler and less humid weather on Monday with a few additional showers.
Upper trough over the Great Lakes will deepen and move east into New England on Monday. A weak pre-frontal trough may bring a few showers to the area ahead of the main boundary in association with an axis of higher moisture.
623 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024 (This evening through Monday Night) Stacked surface and upper-level ridge across the region has maintained light and variable winds this afternoon with temperatures currently in the lower 90s. Low-level moisture, characterized by dewpoint in the lower 70s, has allowed for scattered cu to develop within the boundary layer this afternoon. Subsidence from the upper-ridge aloft will suppress cloud growth through the afternoon, maintaining a dry forecast tonight and into Monday and Monday night.
627 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024 (Tonight) A broken line of showers with a few embedded thunderstorms ahead of a surface cold front continues to progress southeast over Tennessee this afternoon.
718 PM EDT Sun Jun 23 2024 * Cooler and less humid into tonight and Monday.
ARS A series of cold fronts will move through the Mid-South over the next seven days.
645 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024 A series of cold fronts will move through the Mid-South over the next seven days.
617 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024 (This evening through Monday) High pressure will continue to slowly build across the region. (Monday night through next Sunday) The 500mb ridge will continue to be the main feature driving weather conditions through the upcoming week. The ridge should build in over Texas with heights topping out at 592 dam, while 850mb temperatures look to be in the 18-22 deg C range, pushing to 24 deg C by midweek.
/EC/ Global guidance shows the mid/upper level high drifting further west towards the Carolinas. With the high shifting westward, this will allow for a weak frontal boundary to sink into our forecast area heading into the overnight period.
Afternoon highs are still expected to reach into the mid 90s, but with dewpoints mixing out into the low to mid 60s, heat index values only top out in the mid to upper 90s.
1214 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024 (This afternoon through Monday night) This afternoon, subsidence due to a westward expanding ridge of high pressure is maintaining mostly sunny skies across the region, with only a few diurnal cumulus popping up over the higher terrain of Southwest Texas. Chances are slim to none for any storms to develop this afternoon, with highs progged to top out near normal in the lower to middle 90s across the plains, 100s for portions of the Pecos and Rio Grande Valleys, and upper 80s in the mountains.
(Today and tonight) The 500mb subtropical ridge across the southwest and south central United States will continue to provide subsidence across west central Texas today through tonight.
128 AM EDT Mon Jun 24 2024 Cooler less humid air will filter into the region tonight, however a few showers will be possible through Monday.
Energy in the low levels will pass over higher terrain Monday afternoon bringing low PoPs to the mountains (25-35% chance).
1146 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024 (This evening through Monday night) A very broad upper level ridge centered near the Desert Southwest extends across nearly the entire southern half of the country. This is the same high pressure system that was northeast of the local area last week.
Some CAMS suggest potential for a few showers/storms this afternoon in the higher terrain of far E OK and NW AR, but will not include any mention as coverage should remain very low.
104 AM EDT Mon Jun 24 2024 * Cooler and less humid into tonight and Monday.
142 AM EDT Mon Jun 24 2024 A cold front will move through eastern New York and western New England with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms ending. An upper level disturbance will bring cooler and less humid weather today with a few additional showers.
These NW winds, along with models indicating some slightly warmer temperatures at 850mb indicate favorable conditions for downslope flow across the area. This will lead to warmer temperatures, with highs approaching 100F across much of the area. Afternoon storm development is expected near the trough with surface convergence providing forcing in a moderate to potentially strongly unstable airmass. Lows will be in the low to mid 70s. Upper level ridge building again as long wave trough axis off the coast. The CAM models are suggesting scattered thunderstorms will focus near the frontal boundary/trough in the southeast Midlands and coastal Plain. Overnight lows continue to range in the low to mid 70s.
1207 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024 (This evening through Monday) High pressure will continue to slowly build across the region. (Monday night through next Sunday) The 500mb ridge will continue to be the main feature driving weather conditions through the upcoming week. The ridge should build in over Texas with heights topping out at 592 dam, while 850mb temperatures look to be in the 18-22 deg C range, pushing to 24 deg C by midweek.
Coastal flood advisory for Downtown Wilmington and the lower Cape Fear River has ended. Tomorrow could see the threat for severe weather as a cold front approaches the area. The front should be pushing into the area around the morning along with a line of showers and storms which will make the high temp forecast difficult with increasing cloudiness. Went a bit warmer with the SW flow ahead of the line, highs in the mid 90s. Pops will linger into Monday evening via a cold front and mid level trough.
Scattered storms initiating late today across the high plains to our our north and west could make a run at northwest portions of Oklahoma tonight, but current probabilities are less than 20 percent that they will make it over the body of Oklahoma before dissipating.
The cold front is still to the northwest so it will be another mild night. A little cooler air will attempt to bleed down the Champlain Valley from Quebec, but it is currently still north of the international border. Tonight, thunderstorms will largely become just showers and showers will become less widespread in coverage as we lose daytime heating and a relatively drier air mass moves into place behind a cold front. Still, lows will only fall into the lower to mid 60s, a few degrees above seasonable averages. For tomorrow, an upper level low containing cooler air will slide across the forecast area, which may produce some low topped showers. High temperatures will be about 5-10 degrees cooler than average in the upper 60s to lower 70s.
1139 PM EDT Sun Jun 23 2024 Showers and thunderstorms will gradually end tonight after the passage of a cold front. KEY MESSAGES: - Showers/thunderstorms ending - Cooler temperatures tonight. ------------------------------------------------------------------- A surface cold front was near the southern PA/WV border, westward through SE OH.
215 AM EDT Mon Jun 24 2024 (06Z TAFs) Atlc ridge axis has slipped a little further south, located near Lake Okeechobee, resulting in a light S to SW wind flow through 14Z-15Z around 5 knots with mainly VFR conds.
(Today and tonight) Upper level high pressure centered near El Paso today and tonight with a significant extension of the ridge eastward across Texas will keep the weather fair but hot across the forecast area.
A system over southwest Canada will move eastward and will flatten the upper level ridge for a day, with slightly cooler temperatures Monday under westerly flow. Highs on Monday will be around 5-8 degrees cooler with breezy conditions.
322 AM EDT Mon Jun 24 2024 Dry and cooler weather is expected today under building high pressure.
Surface analysis depicts high pressure over the western Atlantic, with a weak trough over the Florida peninsula, and weak low pressure in the Bay of Campeche. Aloft, a weak mid/upper trough remains in place across Florida and the SW Atlantic. Guidance has trended a bit drier from tonight through midweek, with the mid level trough now washing out more quickly than previously depicted, while the upper trough shifts well east of Florida. That said, our low-level flow will be shifting to the WSW, as the subtropical ridge drops southward in response to a couple of mid-latitude troughs moving off the East Coast.
/NEW/ /Overnight through Monday Night/ The large scale weather pattern will remain unchanged to start the work week with a mid-level ridge anchored from the Desert Southwest to the Lower Mississippi Valley. /Issued 154 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024/ /Monday Night through Sunday/ A stout mid level ridge will remain in place across the Southern Plains Monday night through much of the week resulting in increasing heat and humidity.
913 PM PDT Sun Jun 23 2024 Somewhat cooler temperatures in the interior today, continuing into the beginning of the work week with a slight cooldown midweek. However, with high pressure ridging into the region, these low clouds will be hard pressed to make much inland intrusion.
High pressure continues to wobble around the southwest, and with moisture still in place, chances for showers and thunderstorms remain. A few stronger storms over the higher terrain may be possible, but the threat for any severe weather is limited.
137 AM EDT Mon Jun 24 2024 Showers and thunderstorms will gradually end tonight after the passage of a cold front. KEY MESSAGES: - Showers/thunderstorms ending - Cooler temperatures tonight. ------------------------------------------------------------------- A surface cold front was near the southern PA/WV border, westward through SE OH.
/Issued 1109 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024/ /Overnight through Monday Night/ The large scale weather pattern will remain unchanged to start the work week with a mid-level ridge anchored from the Desert Southwest to the Lower Mississippi Valley.