Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
(Rest of today and tonight) Skies are clearing from west to east this afternoon as the dry slot of the mid-latitude cyclone wraps into the Southern Plains. Temperatures tonight appear as though they will be a bit warmer than previous forecasts suggested, in part due to a more disjointed mid- level low limiting the amount of dynamic cooling that occurs at 850 mb in Kansas. Thus, lows will generally remain at and above freezing in northwest and northern Oklahoma. Late tonight, a lobe of the upper low is expected to break off of the main cyclone and meander southward into the southwest part of our area. The low is occluded enough not to expect significant temperature advection; however, models show that shallow fog development is possible to the north of the boundary.
Rainfall will gradually become widespread into the deformation zone of the low allowing for rainfall to continue for much of the area through at least Friday morning.
At the base of the upper trof/low a stout 120-140 knot upper level jet streak over TX was spreading northeast across the Red River Valley. East of this feature, a cold front was draped over east TX and intersecting a plume of deep moisture being pulled northward off the Gulf. Some of the fog could become locally dense and at this time appears the higher probabilities of lower restrictions to visibility noted in the short range ensembles will be near area bays and inland waterways. Meanwhile, the cold front is progged to make an approach to the Lower MS River Valley tonight. Highs Friday in the lower/mid 70's. With the frontal passage, Friday night will be cooler with lows falling into the mid/upper 40's, warmest nearer the coast.
317 PM EST Thu Jan 30 2025 A low pressure system will bring widespread rainfall to the area into Friday.
/Issued 1258 PM CST Thu Jan 30 2025/ /Through Friday afternoon/ Latest water vapor imagery shows the upper level low responsible for our active weather is centered to our northwest near the TX/OK Panhandles. The associated surface cold front continues to move eastward across East Texas towards the Ark-La-Tex region. A few spots across our eastern zones may remain a few degrees cooler given the cloud coverage over that area.
146 PM EST Thu Jan 30 2025 (This afternoon through Friday) Key Messages: - A cold front will bring rain and cloud cover to the region on Friday. A warm front should lift through Georgia tonight leading to increased moisture and cloud cover. This will leave the region primed for rainfall on Friday as a cold front traverses the area. HREF guidance has been consistently keeping the rainfall confined to a narrow band of lift in the vicinity of the cold front. As the cold front moves through central Georgia Friday afternoon a thin band of instability may exist just ahead of the front. Temperatures will be mild on Friday (highs in the 60s and 70s), with no significant push of cold are expected behind the cold front.
Strong ridging and dry air aloft will help keep conditions dry. High temperatures will reach the low to mid 80s across interior and southwest Florida. Coastal areas and the East Coast metro remain slightly cooler thanks to the easterly breeze, with highs in the upper 70s. Winds will begin to veer from the southeast, then the south, on Friday as a cold front makes its way across the Gulf states. This will help shift the warmest temperatures north near Lake Okeechobee, where the highs could reach the mid 80s. Elsewhere, expect temps to peak in the lower 80s.
- A bit cooler with highs in the upper 30s and 40s on Friday. The entire forecast area has been mostly sunny through mid- afternoon as a large low pressure system and associated cloud cover to the south has struggled to advance northward against a much drier air mass. Some model guidance hints at low stratus/fog development along the coteau and into the Highway 14 corridor overnight into early Friday morning. Some cooler air will settle across the region tomorrow on the backside of the departing low pressure system, keeping highs in the upper 30s to mid 40s.
pdf Dirty upper ridging, downstream of a deep cutoff low spinning over the Southern Plains, remains dominant across the region. At the surface, a modest high pressure continue to drift off to the northeast. This has set up a southerly flow in the low levels that is working in together with upper ridging to boost inland temperatures into the 70s early this afternoon. The coast has been chilled by the onshore flow which has effectively been cooled by the shelf waters as it pushes into the beaches where temperatures are in the low 60s. Fair weather conditions will continue this evening as a developing warm front lifts across the region tonight. That warmer, moist airmass will increase potential for fog where winds calm or become very light.
1234 PM MST Thu Jan 30 2025 - Freezing drizzle threat moving west out of the forecast area as temperatures warm.
150 PM EST Thu Jan 30 2025 The pattern aloft this afternoon features a large cutoff low over the central plains region and high pressure centered near Cuba. At the surface, high pressure is off to our east, keeping a light southeast flow in place through tonight. For the rest of Friday, the high will shift eastward more as a cold front approaches, with conditions continuing to warm. Highs will be in the 70s still near the coast and up north, but will warm into the lower to mid 80s inland.
Friday's max temperatures will be in the low 70s across the Victoria Crossroads, while climbing into the upper 70s/low 80s elsewhere.
The North Bay will likely receive the highest amounts of rain. (Today and Tonight) Upper level ridging will hold through much of the day, but will begin to flatten later this evening as an upper level trof moves into the PAC NW.
A 5h low along the KS/OK border will shift east into KS/MO with a trough extension into TX. Mild overnight lows in the 50s will result from the higher dew points and warm advection. On Friday, the upper trough axis/cold pool will pivot east into the OH and TN valleys. High temperatures will reach the lower to middle 60s for most areas, perhaps the upper 60s in northwest AL.
Latest HRR and NAM/GFS/EURO is showing upper level low over southern plains this afternoon will move east into the mid Mississippi Valley Friday morning. Weak ridging will build north through this evening and shift the rain shield ahead of the low more into the Ohio Valley until after 06Z.
/NEW/ /Through Friday afternoon/ Latest water vapor imagery shows the upper level low responsible for our active weather is centered to our northwest near the TX/OK Panhandles. The associated surface cold front continues to move eastward across East Texas towards the Ark-La-Tex region. A few spots across our eastern zones may remain a few degrees cooler given the cloud coverage over that area.
Mostly sunny skies has prevailed across the Florida Keys area with temperatures along the chain in the mid to upper 70s making for a wonderful day! As ridging extended eastward across Florida and the Bahamas, the pressure gradient has tightened today freshening our breezes and veering them east to southeast. For the Straits of Florida, Small Craft Should Exercise Caution headline is included for the higher winds while the remaining waters are below the criteria. Over the weekend, a low pressure currently north of Texas, will lift northeasterly and an associated cold front will be pushed through the Gulf waters.
Winds will start to pick up tonight into tomorrow as the pressure gradient tightens on the backside of the a high pressure.
1203 PM EST Thu Jan 30 2025 High pressure will shift off to the east today with low pressure approaching from the the Southern Plains moving into the Ohio Valley overnight. Widespread rain associated with this system will develop this afternoon through tonight and then diminish on Friday as a cold front pushes through the area.
222 PM CST Thu Jan 30 2025 Current afternoon global guidance still show a upper level low along with an associated cold front hovering over the Southern Plains. This upper level low is still on track to continue its eastward push towards the Lower Mississippi Valley. As the cold front push through our forecast area, a line of storms will develop along the frontal boundary. A few isolated tornadoes cannot be ruled out given the high shear in place. On top of the severe potential later this evening, global guidance highlights the pressure gradient ahead of the cold front tightening. Elsewhere, areas east of I-55 will peak into the low 70s.
200 PM EST Thu Jan 30 2025 Widespread rain tonight into Friday with the next low pressure system.
(This evening through Friday night) Still watching a cold front upstream that is forecast to move through the region sometime around late morning to midday Friday.
- Drier and warmer conditions will settle in Friday onward. While the weather system is passing over the panhandles it will keep temperatures on the cooler side with NW winds. For once the system departs the winds will shift to the SW bringing warmer downsloping air to the southern plains. This will have a high chance of starting a warming trend across the panhandles that will see the highs jump into the 60s for Friday.
The upper level Low that brought us the rain and snow has moved off into the east and a zonal pattern is taking over. The only weather of real note is the potential for some patchy fog to form in some of the low lying valleys such as around the Grand Canyon and the Prescott areas on Friday morning as moisture from melted snow and rain gets trapped under low lying inversions.
Speaking of fog, there are signals within guidance on additional fog tonight as the cold front moves through. Much of the signal suggests a scenario where low stratus cloud deck along and behind the front will scrape the higher elevations on either side of the Red River Valley in eastern ND and west- central MN. 500 mb pattern early this morning shows upper low in SW Kansas which is moving northeast. This high is quickly pushed off and 500 mb pattern will go to a more zonal or even WSW flow this weekend as moisture moves in from the Pacific northwest and into the International border region. vs cooler in Devils Lake area with near 30 as colder air starts to ooze in this aftn.
Southwest CONUS upper low finally beginning to pinwheel ENE. The highest amounts will likely be south of US-30 given better moisture convergence there. There will likely be a brief break late tonight/early Fri before positively tilted midlevel trough arrives. However, the window of sub-freezing temps with enough residual ascent/moisture is very limited and little/no accumulation is expected given wet/warm-ish ground.
- Drier and warmer conditions will settle in Friday onward. Based off the latest CAMs, this fog is likely to hold through into the late morning as the closed low slowly pushes off the Panhandles today. However, active weather is expected to continue with many of the models seeing moisture wrapping around the low, which will create weak showers during the afternoon and evening hours. Regardless, accumulations continue to run on the low end with most models only calling for a couple hundredths of an inch. Moving into the overnight will see the end of our active weather with most of the models seeing the closed low well east of the Panhandles and a ridge building in behind it. This will create high pressure over CWA that will look to hold through weekend and create a warmer and drier weather.
Clear skies this morning with some high clouds later in the day as the upper ridge begins to give way to an incoming storm system.
311 PM CST Thu Jan 30 2025 Forecast discussion for routine afternoon forecast issuance - After a record breaking day across much of the area, cooler air arrives on Friday, but readings will stay slightly above normal.
240 PM MST Thu Jan 30 2025 KEY MESSAGES: 1) A back door cold front will affect part of the northeast Montana late tonight to begin a more active weather pattern.
Good shear and strong lift continues to be shown ahead of the trough axis associated with this storm system.
528 PM CST Thu Jan 30 2025 (This evening through Friday night) Still watching a cold front upstream that is forecast to move through the region sometime around late morning to midday Friday.
The ridge of high pressure sitting off of Florida's east coast has begun to move eastward as expected, which will see the current SE flow pattern shift to the SSW by Friday afternoon. The pattern aloft this afternoon features a large cutoff low over the central plains region and high pressure centered near Cuba. At the surface, high pressure is off to our east, keeping a light southeast flow in place through tonight. For the rest of Friday, the high will shift eastward more as a cold front approaches, with conditions continuing to warm. Highs will be in the 70s still near the coast and up north, but will warm into the lower to mid 80s inland.
An almost vertically stacked low pressure continues to spin over the High Plains this afternoon and should slowly lumber eastward tonight into Friday morning. However, higher heights aloft and warmer mid-level temperatures depicted in the mid-range global models support high confidence in mild temperatures this weekend.
Currently, largely clear skies under observed subsidence on water vapor imagery is allowing temperatures to reach well above freezing/average this afternoon for most locations. A weak cold front moves through after sunset this evening.
557 PM CST Thu Jan 30 2025 Current afternoon global guidance still show a upper level low along with an associated cold front hovering over the Southern Plains. This upper level low is still on track to continue its eastward push towards the Lower Mississippi Valley. As the cold front push through our forecast area, a line of storms will develop along the frontal boundary. A few isolated tornadoes cannot be ruled out given the high shear in place. On top of the severe potential later this evening, global guidance highlights the pressure gradient ahead of the cold front tightening. Elsewhere, areas east of I-55 will peak into the low 70s.
555 PM CST Thu Jan 30 2025 Updated aviation portion for 00Z TAF issuance - After a record breaking day across much of the area, cooler air arrives on Friday, but readings will stay slightly above normal.
722 PM EST Thu Jan 30 2025 Warmer than average temperatures continue overnight, with passing mid to high level cloudiness. On Friday, a cold front will push through the Southeast bringing widespread showers through Friday night. High pressure has moved offshore ahead of the next storm system. Key Message(s): - Widespread showers Friday evening, thunderstorms possible - Gusty winds on Friday afternoon On Friday, a closed low over the central US will open up and lift into the eastern US Friday night. This will bring a cold front across the Southeast during the short term.
(This afternoon through Friday) Key Messages: - A cold front will bring rain and cloud cover to the region on Friday. A warm front should lift through Georgia tonight leading to increased moisture and cloud cover. This will leave the region primed for rainfall on Friday as a cold front traverses the area. HREF guidance has been consistently keeping the rainfall confined to a narrow band of lift in the vicinity of the cold front. As the cold front moves through central Georgia Friday afternoon a thin band of instability may exist just ahead of the front. Temperatures will be mild on Friday (highs in the 60s and 70s), with no significant push of cold are expected behind the cold front.
649 PM MST Thu Jan 30 2025 KEY MESSAGES: 1) A back door cold front will affect part of the northeast Montana late tonight to begin a more active weather pattern.
This will likely persist until the cold front drops south making fog become more widespread but also even more transient with most locations seeing improved visibility by sunrise especially for more northern areas. Currently, largely clear skies under observed subsidence on water vapor imagery is allowing temperatures to reach well above freezing/average this afternoon for most locations. A weak cold front moves through after sunset this evening.
The cut-off low that brought wintry weather to portions of the area today will trek eastward. While doing so, forcing will lessen and drier air will wrap around the backside of the low. A quick moving ridge will push over the region throughout the day. Looking at temperatures, a rebound to warmer and above seasonal values is expected as westerly to southerly downsloping winds materialize. The plains will warm into the low 50s to low 60s, the valleys will reach into the 40s to low 50s, and the mountains will rise into the 20s to mid 30s. With that all said though, areas that got heavier snow Thursday, particularly the I-25 corridor and San Luis Valley, will be on the lower end of those ranges, and possibly below them.
305 PM CST Thu Jan 30 2025 Forecast discussion for routine afternoon forecast issuance - After a record breaking day across much of the area, cooler air arrives on Friday, but readings will stay slightly above normal.
530 PM CST Thu Jan 30 2025 (This afternoon through Friday) An upper-level low is progressing across the Four Corners with a ridge axis passing over Central Alabama today. Rain chances are still expected to increase across the west after midnight with the cold front passing west to east through the area during the day tomorrow.
512 PM CST Thu Jan 30 2025 (This evening through Friday Night) A significant lack of surface-based instability and low low-level lapse rates has greatly inhibited the development of thunderstorms this afternoon as a cold front continues to push through the area.
(This evening through Friday Night) A significant lack of surface-based instability and low low-level lapse rates has greatly inhibited the development of thunderstorms this afternoon as a cold front continues to push through the area.
850 PM EST Thu Jan 30 2025 A low pressure system will bring widespread rainfall to the area into Friday.
645 PM EST Thu Jan 30 2025 A low pressure system will bring widespread rainfall to the area into Friday.
1038 PM MST Thu Jan 30 2025 KEY MESSAGES: 1) A back door cold front will affect part of the northeast Montana late tonight to begin a more active weather pattern.
923 PM CST Thu Jan 30 2025 A potent upper level low is pushing toward the Mid-South tonight.
WV imagery indicates a closed upper low moving east through southern Oklahoma/north Texas. Near the surface, an area of low pressure is moving east-northeast through central/eastern Oklahoma. Tranquil conditions are expected early in the period as the SREF indicates the aforementioned closed upper low transitioning eastward through the Central Plains today, giving way to a more zonal flow aloft across the Western High Plains over the weekend.
1143 PM CST Thu Jan 30 2025 A potent upper level low is pushing toward the Mid-South tonight.
Synoptic models have the low sliding into the Oklahoma Panhandle region before turning and moving east-northeastward through tonight. As the upper low moves across the plains and through Missouri tonight, the flow over the Ozarks will shift out of the north. While indications are for a period of dry weather as moisture slowly wraps around the low and back into the Ozarks, strong isentropic lift from the 295k to 310k surfaces from 30 to 60kts may be enough to squeeze out some drizzle overnight. The upper low will move across and east of Missouri through the day Friday. There remains the potential for light showers or drizzle on the back side of the low through the day Friday. As the low occludes, moisture looks like it will wrap around and slide back into the Ozarks though how far south remains a question.
1114 PM CST Thu Jan 30 2025 (This evening through Friday Night) A significant lack of surface-based instability and low low-level lapse rates has greatly inhibited the development of thunderstorms this afternoon as a cold front continues to push through the area.
High pressure is building over Arizona this evening with light winds and clear skies. Temperatures are running a few degrees warmer than last evening at this time. The upper level Low that brought us the rain and snow has moved off into the east and a zonal pattern is taking over. The only weather of real note is the potential for some patchy fog to form in some of the low lying valleys such as around the Grand Canyon and the Prescott areas on Friday morning as moisture from melted snow and rain gets trapped under low lying inversions.
1013 PM EST Thu Jan 30 2025 * Rain will overspread Pennsylvania from southwest to northeast overnight, and it could be just cold enough for some freezing rain in part of northeastern Pennsylvania towards daybreak on Friday.
932 PM CST Thu Jan 30 2025 Updated aviation portion for 06Z TAF issuance - After a record breaking day across much of the area, cooler air arrives on Friday, but readings will stay slightly above normal.
305 AM EST Fri Jan 31 2025 A warm front will lift north across NC this morning and southern VA this afternoon. An area of low pressure and trailing cold front will then move east across the region early tonight.
However, confidence is low as there is still a lot of variability that could impact temps and precip types, particularly later in the week as high pressure and colder air finally make a southward return.
1043 PM CST Thu Jan 30 2025 - A bit cooler with highs in the upper 30s and 40s on Friday. The entire forecast area has been mostly sunny through mid- afternoon as a large low pressure system and associated cloud cover to the south has struggled to advance northward against a much drier air mass. Some model guidance hints at low stratus/fog development along the coteau and into the Highway 14 corridor overnight into early Friday morning. Some cooler air will settle across the region tomorrow on the backside of the departing low pressure system, keeping highs in the upper 30s to mid 40s.
A split flow U/L pattern persists across the CONUS this morning with a strong southern stream cut-off low over the southern plains, and quasi-zonal northern stream across the extreme northern tier of the U. The cut-off low will lift northeast and shear out today across the central Missouri valley as it becomes absorbed by the northern stream.
1048 PM CST Thu Jan 30 2025 (This afternoon through Friday) An upper-level low is progressing across the Four Corners with a ridge axis passing over Central Alabama today. Rain chances are still expected to increase across the west after midnight with the cold front passing west to east through the area during the day tomorrow.
Currently - A surface pressure ridge extending west southwestward across Central Florida is responsible for gentle to moderate easterly breezes across the Keys this evening. This wind direction has brought in air from both an increasingly warmer source and warmer waters. As a result, temperatures have taken a healthy bump up from 24 hours and are now broadly in the lower 70s with dew points slightly warmer conditions and temperatures are currently broadly in the lower 70s with dew points on the high side of mid 60s. Deep layered ridging is parked nearly overhead resulting in a lack of moisture through a deep layer and substantial inhibition based quite low just below 950 mb.
1025 PM CST Thu Jan 30 2025 Wx map shows the cold front now extending from Lake Charles to Alexandria, with weak west to northwest winds behind the front.
1052 PM MST Thu Jan 30 2025 KEY MESSAGES: 1) A back door cold front will affect part of the northeast Montana late tonight to begin a more active weather pattern.
Gusts up to 70 mph are possible in the higher foothills.
(Today through Saturday afternoon) The upper-level trough that brought us gusty and dusty conditions yesterday departs to our east. On the backside of the trough, we're left under dry, northwesterly flow aloft. A broad upper ridge fills in behind the trough, allowing heights to increase, signaling the start of a warming trend.