Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
(This afternoon through Tuesday night) At press time, a pronounced inverted trough over eastern Chihuahua is migrating beneath the upper ridge. A combination of orographic forcing, deep layer lift from the aforementioned trough, and sufficient moisture will keep scattered to numerous thunderstorms anchored over and near the Davis/Glass Mountains and southern Brewster County this afternoon and early this evening before dissipating with loss of sensible heating after sunset. The trough moves away from the region overnight; however, low order PoPs will remain over the mountains Tuesday afternoon.
224 PM CDT Mon Aug 5 2024 - Cooler temperatures are forecast for the rest of the week, with the coolest temperatures expected this weekend.
1230 PM CDT Mon Aug 5 2024 (Today through Tuesday) Throughout the short term period, a mid-to-upper level high pressure extending from the southern West Coast to the southern Plains will continue to dominate Deep South Texas with very warm and dry conditions underneath mostly clear skies. At the surface, a high pressure over the southern Plains and western Gulf of Mexico will keep a light to gentle easterly to southeasterly moist onshore flow.
The upper-level trough will flatten the Four Corners ridge, creating favorable conditions for breezy northerly winds Tuesday afternoon.
843 PM CDT Mon Aug 5 2024 Upper level ridging is sitting off to our west and that is influencing our weather tonight into tomorrow. North to northeasterly upper level flow is responsible for this drier weather as Tennessee is sandwiched between the lower pressure associated with Hurricane Debby and a large ridge building over the central US.
Cool and unsettled weather is expected this week as multiple waves of cooler air work their way into the area. Expect some unsettled weather with the arrival of the cooler air, with afternoon showers and thunderstorms expected each afternoon.
615 PM CDT Mon Aug 5 2024 (This afternoon through Tuesday night) At press time, a pronounced inverted trough over eastern Chihuahua is migrating beneath the upper ridge. A combination of orographic forcing, deep layer lift from the aforementioned trough, and sufficient moisture will keep scattered to numerous thunderstorms anchored over and near the Davis/Glass Mountains and southern Brewster County this afternoon and early this evening before dissipating with loss of sensible heating after sunset. The trough moves away from the region overnight; however, low order PoPs will remain over the mountains Tuesday afternoon.
827 PM EDT Mon Aug 5 2024 - Low chance for severe storms after midnight tonight - Dry and Cooler Second Half of the Week - Low chance for severe storms after midnight tonight Latest available guidance indicates we should see a weakening squall line moving southeastward across far southwest Lower MI, similar to what we observed this morning.
612 PM CDT Mon Aug 5 2024 (This evening through Tuesday Night) Little change is expected with the overall synoptic pattern over the next couple of days, as the upper ridging anchored from near the Four Corners Region E through the Mid-South should expand farther SE over the area tonight, with increased subsidence resulting in temps near of not slightly hotter than what was observed today. Despite the mostly clear sky and light winds, limited relief can be expected at night, with temps only falling into the lower to mid 70s.
Mid-level ridging will remain in control over the region tonight, maintaining quiet weather. Overnight low temperatures should remain a few degrees above seasonal average, ranging from the low-mid 70s. Mejia (Through Tonight) Broad ridging remains over much of the Southern Plains this afternoon, with temperatures climbing into the upper 90s across eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas.
619 PM CDT Mon Aug 5 2024 (Through Tonight) Broad ridging remains over much of the Southern Plains this afternoon, with temperatures climbing into the upper 90s across eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas.
A strong high pressure system will keep afternoon highs on the toasty side with mostly light winds outside of any thunderstorms. High pressure aloft was centered over the New Mexico/Colorado border during the afternoon.
CN (This evening through Tuesday Night) Little change is expected with the overall synoptic pattern over the next couple of days, as the upper ridging anchored from near the Four Corners Region E through the Mid-South should expand farther SE over the area tonight, with increased subsidence resulting in temps near of not slightly hotter than what was observed today. Despite the mostly clear sky and light winds, limited relief can be expected at night, with temps only falling into the lower to mid 70s.
The High Risk for rip currents will go thru 2am, though the risk for strong rip currents will remain overnight and entering the water remains discouraged, especially at night! Trailing rainbands from TC Debby will still promote scattered shower and isolated lightning storm activity across the area tonight.
545 PM CDT Mon Aug 5 2024 (This evening through Tuesday night) High pressure continues to build across the southern plains for today and Tuesday. Under the relentless sun the winds will be weakly from the south which will push in warmer air to the panhandles. Both of these are going to cause the temperatures to continue to rise with the highs in the 90s to 100s today increasing to 100s for Tuesday.
551 PM CDT Mon Aug 5 2024 - Cooler temperatures are forecast for the rest of the week, with the coolest temperatures expected this weekend.
Ridge amplification will occur tomorrow with 5970-meter 500 mb heights filtering into the southern Plains. Meanwhile, increasingly northwesterly flow across the Northern Plains will encourage a cold front to trundle southward through Kansas.
Onshore flow persists through the week and a long wave trough moves in from the Pacific over the weekend.
803 PM MDT Mon Aug 5 2024 Cool and unsettled weather is expected this week as multiple waves of cooler air work their way into the area. Expect some unsettled weather with the arrival of the cooler air, with afternoon showers and thunderstorms expected each afternoon.
/NEW/ /Tonight through Tuesday Night/ Hot and dry continues through Tuesday with mid level ridging firmly in place across the Southern Plains. An expanding low level thermal ridge will send 925-850 mb temps upward a couple of degrees on Tuesday and with deep afternoon mixing we should see a corresponding upward tick in high temperatures across the region.
1037 PM EDT Mon Aug 5 2024 A cold front will slowly push southwards through the region producing some showers and thunderstorms tonight.
The higher severe weather threat looks to be from southeast Minnesota and northeast Iowa, possibly into southwest Wisconsin. - Cooler, drier weather expected for much of the rest of the week with low rain chances at times. Tuesday-Monday: A drier, cooler pattern will return for Tuesday, likely continuing through the week as west to northwest flow aloft persists. Broad mid-level troughing sinking south from Canada through late week will help suppress the strong western US ridge and allow seasonably cool air to infiltrate the Upper Mississippi Valley.
Over our region, weak high pressure over the region, providing light and variable winds this evening. Aloft, the mid to upper level ridge over the Western and Central U. Temperatures range from the lower to upper 80s this evening, only expecting to fall into the mid to upper 70s north of I-10, near 80 to lower 80s further south by daybreak Tuesday.
605 PM CDT Mon Aug 5 2024 (This evening through Tuesday) A 500 mb ridge axis extending from the Four Corners eastward along the Oklahoma/Kansas state line will shift southward on its eastern taking a more northwest-southeast orientation and extending from the Four Corners across the Texas Panhandle to the Red River between Texas and Oklahoma. Increasing heights and thicknesses point to potential for high temperatures to be about 3-4 degrees warmer for most areas relative to today.
936 PM EDT Mon Aug 5 2024 A cold front will push south across the region Tuesday into Tuesday night, bringing a chance for showers and thunderstorms. Behind the front, a cooler and drier airmass will settle into the Ohio Valley through the end of the week. Lows will be a degree or two warmer tonight, remaining around 70+ for most. Will range highs from the upper 80s in the north to the low to mid 90s across the south. With dewpoints in the low to possibly mid 70s, heat indices in the 95 to 100 degree range will be possible Tuesday afternoon, especially across our south. These will be along and ahead of the low and mainly to the north of the boundary.
851 PM CDT Mon Aug 5 2024 Surface analysis this evening shows Tropical Storm Debby located near Jacksonville, Florida while a 1017 mb ridge of high pressure stretches from the Ohio Valley back through the Lower Mississippi Valley.
937 PM EDT Mon Aug 5 2024 - Rain expected tonight/Tuesday morning M-32 and south - Dry and markedly less humid weather expected much of the week Low pressure remains centered along the Minnesota/Iowa border late this evening. Large area of mainly stratiform rain continues to develop within an area of isentropic ascent ahead of the low. Still expect the northern edge of this precip shield should stay generally south of the Bridge. A trailing cold front is drifting toward the I-94 corridor in lower MI. Thermal ridge over the southwestern CONUS will continue to drive an active northern stream, with expansive longwave troughing encompassing much of northeastern North America. acting as a blocking mechanism for the slowing / stalled Tropical Storm Debby over the southeastern CONUS.
721 PM EDT Mon Aug 5 2024 A cold front will push south across the region Tuesday into Tuesday night, bringing a chance for showers and thunderstorms. Behind the front, a cooler and drier airmass will settle into the Ohio Valley through the end of the week. Will range highs from the upper 80s in the north to the low to mid 90s across the south. With dewpoints in the low to possibly mid 70s, heat indices in the 95 to 100 degree range will be possible Tuesday afternoon, especially across our south. These will be along and ahead of the low and mainly to the north of the boundary.
Current temperatures range from the upper 70s to lower 80s and will continue dropping into the lower 70s by the morning hours.
1055 PM CDT Mon Aug 5 2024 Surface analysis this evening shows Tropical Storm Debby located near Jacksonville, Florida while a 1017 mb ridge of high pressure stretches from the Ohio Valley back through the Lower Mississippi Valley.
A favorable environment will exist for organized convection, given modest instability, shear, and synoptic ascent with an approaching Pacific trough.
228 AM MDT Tue Aug 6 2024 KEY MESSAGES: - A disturbance and cold front will push into the area late this afternoon and evening bringing a slight risk for severe weather across the region.
1215 AM CDT Tue Aug 6 2024 Upper level ridging is sitting off to our west and that is influencing our weather tonight into tomorrow. North to northeasterly upper level flow is responsible for this drier weather as Tennessee is sandwiched between the lower pressure associated with Hurricane Debby and a large ridge building over the central US.
A strong high pressure system will keep afternoon highs on the toasty side with mostly light winds outside of any thunderstorms. An inverted trough/easterly wave can be seen on satellite south of El Paso, moving toward the west. High pressure aloft was centered over the New Mexico/Colorado border during the afternoon.
127 AM EDT Tue Aug 6 2024 - Low chance for severe storms after midnight tonight - Dry and Cooler Second Half of the Week - Low chance for severe storms after midnight tonight Latest available guidance indicates we should see a weakening squall line moving southeastward across far southwest Lower MI, similar to what we observed this morning.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Given the high cloud bases with Monday thunderstorms, confidence remains high for VFR conditions.
1210 AM CDT Tue Aug 6 2024 - Cooler temperatures are forecast for the rest of the week, with the coolest temperatures expected this weekend.
1145 PM EDT Mon Aug 5 2024 - Rain expected tonight/Tuesday morning M-32 and south - Dry and markedly less humid weather expected much of the week Low pressure remains centered along the Minnesota/Iowa border late this evening. Large area of mainly stratiform rain continues to develop within an area of isentropic ascent ahead of the low. Still expect the northern edge of this precip shield should stay generally south of the Bridge. A trailing cold front is drifting toward the I-94 corridor in lower MI. Thermal ridge over the southwestern CONUS will continue to drive an active northern stream, with expansive longwave troughing encompassing much of northeastern North America. acting as a blocking mechanism for the slowing / stalled Tropical Storm Debby over the southeastern CONUS.
(Today and tonight) The persistent upper high will continue its eastward progression and will dominate the pattern today. Though highs across the Rolling Plains will be 100 degrees or warmer, they should stay just below advisory criteria (105). Light westerly morning winds will back to the south thanks to surface lee troughing.
(Today) Today will be another hot day, likely a few degrees warmer than yesterday, with most areas near to slightly above 100 F.
By early this afternoon, scattered showers and thunderstorms look to develop over the higher terrain in the west and progress east through the area this evening.
1152 PM CDT Mon Aug 5 2024 - Slightly cooler tomorrow as a cold front pushes through Kansas.
250 AM CDT Tue Aug 6 2024 - Notably cooler today, with highs in the 70s under lingering stratus.
The high pressure has nudged slightly to the south, which has caused the flow to shift to more westerly across the northern half of the area. Convection will develop over the higher terrain and outflows will allow storms to propagate out over the valleys.
(Today) A sunny/hot day will be on tap later today across the Tennessee Valley with high pressure firmly established across the region. Subsidence from this ridge will suppress cloud cover and any potential convection -- with any high cirrus from the remnants of Debby remaining to our east over GA/SC/NC.
158 AM EDT Tue Aug 6 2024 While the passage of a cool front will set the stage for cooler and less humid weather during the next few days.
(Today and tonight) Thermal ridge shifting southeast into the area this afternoon will bring much warmer conditions. (Tuesday night through next Monday) Very hot temperatures and dry conditions are expected this week as the upper level high moves over our area.
1254 AM EDT Tue Aug 6 2024 A cold front along the Downeast coast will move south overnight.
1202 AM CDT Tue Aug 6 2024 (This evening through Tuesday) A 500 mb ridge axis extending from the Four Corners eastward along the Oklahoma/Kansas state line will shift southward on its eastern taking a more northwest-southeast orientation and extending from the Four Corners across the Texas Panhandle to the Red River between Texas and Oklahoma. Increasing heights and thicknesses point to potential for high temperatures to be about 3-4 degrees warmer for most areas relative to today.
335 AM CDT Tue Aug 6 2024 - Much cooler and cloudy today as Canadian air enters the state.
- Continued dry pattern through the weekend along with much cooler temperatures and lower humidity. Upper level ridging centered over the southwest U. So despite the slightly warmer air temps of 94-98, think that most areas should stay just below Heat Advisory threshold.
251 AM CDT Tue Aug 6 2024 - Tuesday high temperatures span across the 90s ahead of afternoon cold front. Maximum heat indices roughly 5 degrees warmer than the air temperature.
1231 AM CDT Tue Aug 6 2024 - Dry Tuesday under high pressure.
127 AM EDT Tue Aug 6 2024 A cold front will push south across the region Tuesday into Tuesday night, bringing a chance for showers and thunderstorms. Behind the front, a cooler and drier airmass will settle into the Ohio Valley through the end of the week. Lows will be a degree or two warmer tonight, remaining around 70+ for most. Will range highs from the upper 80s in the north to the low to mid 90s across the south. With dewpoints in the low to possibly mid 70s, heat indices in the 95 to 100 degree range will be possible Tuesday afternoon, especially across our south. These will be along and ahead of the low and mainly to the north of the boundary.
1157 PM CDT Mon Aug 5 2024 (This afternoon through Tuesday night) At press time, a pronounced inverted trough over eastern Chihuahua is migrating beneath the upper ridge. A combination of orographic forcing, deep layer lift from the aforementioned trough, and sufficient moisture will keep scattered to numerous thunderstorms anchored over and near the Davis/Glass Mountains and southern Brewster County this afternoon and early this evening before dissipating with loss of sensible heating after sunset. The trough moves away from the region overnight; however, low order PoPs will remain over the mountains Tuesday afternoon.
A dry cold front will cross the area tomorrow and allow cooler conditions to settle in. A 596 dam ridge will slowly push east. This ridge is having a hard time inching its way as Tropical Storm Debby rests on the Atlantic Coast of Georgia. An approaching cold front will also slowly pull moisture allowing the remainder of northeast Arkansas to experience heat indices around 106 degrees today.
Today: The storms in our north have exited the forecast area and then a cold front will push southeast across the area this morning. North winds in the wake of the front and cold air advection will bring much cooler and less humid conditions. Highs will be in the 70s! Tonight: Clearing skies from north to south as a ridge of high pressure stretches from Iowa to Quebec. Synoptically speaking we will have a northwest flow as a deep trough takes shape in the Great Lakes region, and the remnants of "Debby" slowly moves up the East Coast. A cold front will move through the taf sites this morning with a large area of low stratus behind the front. Skies should clear by evening as a ridge of high pressure moves into the area.
Temperatures along the island chain are hovering in the lower to mid 80s, with oppressive dewpoints near 80 producing heat indices in the upper 90s as of 4 AM. The 00Z Key West sounding sampled relatively weak lapse rates in the lower to mid levels, with slightly above normal PW of 1. For today, parts of the Upper Keys will likely see convection during the next few hours, as the low level convergence zone noted above continues to shift eastward across that area. Otherwise, high temps in the lower 90s combined with dewpoints in the upper 70s to near 80 will drive heat indices over 108F from late morning through the afternoon, and have issued a Heat Advisory for the island chain from 10 AM through 7 PM.
1234 AM CDT Tue Aug 6 2024 (This evening through Tuesday night) High pressure continues to build across the southern plains for today and Tuesday. Under the relentless sun the winds will be weakly from the south which will push in warmer air to the panhandles. Both of these are going to cause the temperatures to continue to rise with the highs in the 90s to 100s today increasing to 100s for Tuesday.
Large area of Canada originated high pressure will build into the area today and tonight as mid level wave passes to the east. Surge of cold air advection on front-side of southeast building high pressure will be at least partially offset by that increasing sunshine. Still, looking at high temperatures running at least a few degrees below specific normal values for today's date, with high mostly in the lower and middle 70s across northern lower Michigan. Expect readings to be a few degrees warmer north of the big bridge where sun will be realized quickest. Easily looking at lows down into the mid and upper 40s across our traditional colder interior locations, with readings several degrees "warmer" the closer one gets to the big waters.
- Dry, cooler and less humid weather follows the rest of the week. This, as a positively tilted trough moves over Illinois in association with a 45-knot jet spilling over the upper Mississippi River Valley amid continued hot and humid conditions locally. Beyond this, dry weather is favored with cooler-than normal temperatures thanks to Canadian high pressure over the eastern Great Lakes. Otherwise a few storms possible this aftn for a time invof KFWA as composite outflow/weak cold frontal zone shift south across the terminals.
1047 PM CDT Mon Aug 5 2024 - Turning cooler into Tuesday, with considerable cloud cover holding back temperatures well below normal.
610 AM CDT Tue Aug 6 2024 (Today and tonight) The persistent upper high will continue its eastward progression and will dominate the pattern today. Though highs across the Rolling Plains will be 100 degrees or warmer, they should stay just below advisory criteria (105). Light westerly morning winds will back to the south thanks to surface lee troughing.
608 AM CDT Tue Aug 6 2024 (Today through Wednesday afternoon) The inverted trough that has helped to produce some showers and storms over the last few days will be pushed out of the area by the upper ridge to the west today. The higher elevations stay "cool" in the low 90s. Lows tonight settle in the 70s with 60s in the higher terrain. The heat turns up on Wednesday as the western ridge amplifies and moves eastward. Highs reach into the low to mid 100s for many with mid 90s in the mountains.
A mid/upper level high wedged into the region from the west, coupled with high pressure at the surface, will remain in control of the weather across the forecast area today into tonight. Despite dew points mixing into the lower 70s & upper 60s this afternoon though, temperatures themselves will continue to climb a degree or two higher than previous days, as they range from the upper 90s to around 100 this afternoon under sunny skies.
The upper level trough that had been languishing off the Pacific Northwest has started to move inland and high pressure is starting to build into the area. The profiler at KACV is showing the marine layer just starting to compress as the high pressure builds.
632 AM CDT Tue Aug 6 2024 (Today) A sunny/hot day will be on tap later today across the Tennessee Valley with high pressure firmly established across the region. Subsidence from this ridge will suppress cloud cover and any potential convection -- with any high cirrus from the remnants of Debby remaining to our east over GA/SC/NC.
Slightly cooler temperatures return Wednesday. * Very pleasant weekend with cooler temperatures and lower humidity. Much like yesterday, today will be another hot and muggy day, with temperatures climbing well into the low/mid 90s by the afternoon hours and dewpoints hovering ~70 degrees. A weak cold front will begin approaching the region this evening, and some models indicate a broken line of showers and storms may try to sneak into our southern IN counties during the early overnight hours. ===== Wednesday - Wednesday Night ===== A moisture-starved cold front is forecast to be pushing southeast through central KY Wednesday morning. Highs should be limited to the lower 80s in southern IN, with upper 80s/near 90 in the southern Bluegrass and Lake Cumberland regions.
Dew points will remain in the upper 70s to lower 80s, which when combined with daytime highs in the lower 90s, will make for dangerous heat index values today. Watch for afternoon cloud lines across the Lower and Middle Keys.
High pressure is centered near the Four Corners this morning. The high is expected to elongate and shift slightly to the west over the next few days before sliding back to the east and settling over New Mexico by the weekend.
A dry cold front will cross the area tomorrow and allow cooler conditions to settle in.
Quiet weather with less humidity and pleasant temperatures are then expected for Wednesday, as high pressure moves through the region. Highs in the middle to upper 70s are expected, with the cooler temperatures near Lake Michigan with onshore winds.