Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Judging by upstream profiles, we won't be seeing a significant dry air push in the low levels to erode the cloud coverage, so we will be relying on mixing of drier air from above 850 mb evident on the 12z PIT sounding to scatter it out. ------------------------------------------------------------------- Heading into tonight, as the cooler air really settles in, probabilities for lows <50F Tuesday night shoot up to 80-90+% outside of the urban areas; Wednesday morning will start off a chilly one. A similar story continues for Wednesday as the core of the upper low moves closer overhead. ------------------------------------------------------------------- Ensemble clusters exhibit some spread from the mean primarily with the timing of the upper low's departure by week's end.
In the most sarcastic tone ever, the mid-upper level ridge is the gift that keeps on giving.
Did also trend a tad warmer than straight NBM guidance and blended in some warmer temps for highs today.
The area with the highest chance for damaging winds and large hail is over Central Montana east of Great Falls.
856 AM EDT Tue Aug 20 2024 High pressure and a dry but cool airmass will remain in place across the Ohio Valley through Wednesday. Temperatures will remain well below normal with afternoon highs only in the low to mid 70s.
(Today through Wednesday) Old cold front is currently across far south GA/north Florida panhandle. High pressure centered across southern Canada will build southward through the period and remain in place across much of north and central GA through the period.
Temperatures along the island chain are already near 90F, and the highest dew points are in the upper 70s.
630 AM CDT Tue Aug 20 2024 - High pressure will keep the weather quiet through the mid week.
632 AM CDT Tue Aug 20 2024 A ridge of high pressure will bring a continuation of rain-free weather to the Lower Mississippi Valley for the next seven days.
632 AM EDT Tue Aug 20 2024 High pressure along with cooler and drier air moving into the region will dominate the weather into the weekend.
745 AM EDT Tue Aug 20 2024 A cold front will slowly exit the Downeast coast today while low pressure moves along the front.
Conditions are forecast to be pleasant today as sunny skies prevail with highs in the low to mid 80s.
1011 AM EDT Tue Aug 20 2024 High pressure over the Great Lakes will provide a northerly flow across the TN Valley, bringing below normal temperatures and dewpoints today and tonight. Cooler and drier weather expected today and tomorrow Discussion: Currently mostly clear skies outside early this morning with a few low level clouds passing through as we sit on the eastern edge of the strengthening ridge. Biggest weather of note today and tomorrow will be the cooler temperatures with guidance suggesting that most locations along and north of Interstate 40 likely topping out below 80 degrees today. Daytime highs on Wednesday are expected to be just a couple of degrees warmer than what we reach today.
Highs today on track to reach the lower to mid 90s, with heat indices around 105.
620 AM CDT Tue Aug 20 2024 - Cooler today with light rain showers and a few rumbles of thunder through the morning, with increasing sun for the afternoon.
Only small adjustments were made to dewpoints, introducing a blend of the deterministic/10th percentile to account for ample afternoon mixing into the low/mid 60's.
625 AM CDT Tue Aug 20 2024 (Today through Wednesday Night) Northwest flow aloft will drive a large area of high pressure from the upper Midwest/Great Lakes to the Ohio Valley in the next couple of days. Clockwise flow around the high will usher in a mild east/northeast wind, and this will result in below average temperatures in the near term.
1005 AM EDT Tue Aug 20 2024 Atlantic ridge axis will remain south of the region today as weak low pressure along a stalled frontal boundary persists near to across north Florida. In the mid to upper levels a trough will remain extended across the eastern U. Highs should be able to reach the low to mid 90s, with peak heat indices of 102-107F before convection and cloud cover increases across the area this afternoon.
520 AM EDT Tue Aug 20 2024 A cold front will slowly exit the Downeast coast today while low pressure moves along the front.
A cold front has moved offshore, although it is still helping to spark one or two showers along the immediate coastline. This high will move little over the next 18 hours, and the clockwise surface flow is responsible for the northerly flow that is occurring today across much of North Carolina, bringing below normal temperatures.
The clouds are limiting the amount of surface heating, so have trended high temperatures down a degree or two this afternoon to the low-to-mid 70s. With dew points in the low 50s across the area, a very pleasant afternoon and evening is expected.
159 PM EDT Tue Aug 20 2024 High pressure along with cooler and drier air moving into the region will dominate the weather into the weekend.
1201 PM CDT Tue Aug 20 2024 A cooler, drier, calm day is the vibe today, with highs in the low 90s and relative humidity levels in the 35-40 percentile range a much needed relief to the heat finally is here. "Cooler" and drier air will infiltrate the Lower Mississippi Valley, with precipitable water dropping to ~1. Highs look to remain in the upper 80s across northern MS, while highs in the low 90s are expected elsewhere.
In summary, very HOT conditions will prevail across Southeast Texas for the rest of today and Wednesday as the high pressure overhead combines with PWs between 1. The high pressure could ever so slightly weaken on Wednesday, and may allow for temperatures about 1 deg less.
113 PM EDT Tue Aug 20 2024 High pressure along with cooler and drier air moving into the region will dominate the weather into the weekend.
A ridge over the desert Southwest and a trough over the Northeast and eastern Canada is perpetuating a N to NW flow across the middle of the country. Regional soundings show a subsidence inversion above 850MB with the cooler air mass undercutting it near the surface.
1214 PM CDT Tue Aug 20 2024 (Today through Wednesday Night) Northwest flow aloft will drive a large area of high pressure from the upper Midwest/Great Lakes to the Ohio Valley in the next couple of days. Clockwise flow around the high will usher in a mild east/northeast wind, and this will result in below average temperatures in the near term.
Issued by National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 1231 PM CDT Tue Aug 20 2024 - High pressure will keep the weather quiet through the mid week.
Highs will be in the lower to middle 90s, but the lower dew points will constrain the heat index values to 100 or less.
SW flow will continue through Wednesday, keeping the higher rain chances and timing more in the morning and early afternoon.
- Cooler temperatures take hold for the latter part of the week with more cloud cover and precipitation anticipated. This will work to limit convective coverage this afternoon and evening with higher-terrain areas experiencing the highest chances for showers and storms. Regardless, afternoon convection is likely tomorrow afternoon with showers and storms initiating over the high terrain.
A cooler, drier, calm day is the vibe today, with highs in the low 90s and relative humidity levels in the 35-40 percentile range a much needed relief to the heat finally is here. "Cooler" and drier air will infiltrate the Lower Mississippi Valley, with precipitable water dropping to ~1. Highs look to remain in the upper 80s across northern MS, while highs in the low 90s are expected elsewhere.
Low temperatures are forecast to drop into the low 50s to low 60s, which is roughly 10 degrees below normal temperatures for this time of year.
Judging by upstream profiles, we won't be seeing a significant dry air push in the low levels to erode the cloud coverage, so we will be relying on mixing of drier air from above 850 mb evident on the 12z PIT sounding to scatter it out into this evening. The only caveat to this may be a slight cloud coverage increase as mid/upper level moisture advects around the periphery of the low which would offset otherwise efficient radiating. ------------------------------------------------------------------- There is high confidence in the clusters in the progression of the pattern through week's end with the upper low still sitting across New England on Wednesday but slowly starting to pull away as heights show minimal rises through the day.
Terminals remain situated between a large upper low stalled over the eastern Great Lakes and a building ridge of high pressure over the Upper Midwest.
An upper level ridge will continue to dominate our weather, resulting in temperatures well above seasonal normals and mainly dry conditions. An isolated shower or thunderstorm cannot be ruled out in our southeast counties tomorrow afternoon, but with the upper level ridge overhead, have kept any mention of PoPs out of the forecast for now.
While the pattern over the CONUS is highly amplified, it's not very progressive at the moment with two main features - a large, mid-level ridge centered over the Desert Southwest and a deep, positively tilted trough centered over Quebec and extending southwest along the East Coast. At the surface, high pressure expands across the Eastern CONUS setting up a wide zone of stable conditions.
BB/03 (Now through Wednesday) Northwesterly flow aloft will prevail through the near term period as our region lies in between a building upper ridge over the Southern Plains and an upper trough over the eastern US. At the surface, a light northerly flow will be in place trough Wednesday as an expansive high pressure builds in from the Great Lakes region. Highs today and Wednesday will rise into the low to mid 90s, and with the low dewpoints, apparent temperatures will likely remain near the actual temperatures. This will allow for temperatures to drop into the mid to upper 60s along and north of I-10, and the low 70s along the coast for tonight and Wednesday night.
(This evening through Wednesday) A highly amplified pattern will continue across the Conus, with a trough over the Atlantic coast and a ridge over the Plains. Daily Record Low Minimum Temperatures Date Chattanooga Knoxville Tri-Cities Oak Ridge 08-21 56(1927) 57(1893) 53(2012) 56(2012) (Wednesday night through next Tuesday) Key Messages: 1.
The northern Rockies are currently in a southwest flow pattern with a trough over the Pacific Northwest and a ridge over the Dakotas.
338 PM EDT Tue Aug 20 2024 Low pressure will slowly exit across the Maritimes through Wednesday.
A strong, mid-level ridge anchored over the southern High Plains and high pressure over the West Gulf will enhance typical deep South Texas and lower RGV summertime weather. Deep South Texas and the lower Rio Grande Valley will see plenty of sun, a paucity of rain, and light winds.
357 PM EDT Tue Aug 20 2024 High pressure building down from the northwest will bring mainly dry and near to slightly-below normal temperatures through late this week. A surface cold front is now off the coast with a mid-level trough axis overhead. This trough is expected to remain overhead while dampening through Wednesday. All of this translates to remarkably pleasant weather for mid-August with morning lows in the mid-60s and daytime highs reaching the low- mid 80s on Wednesday.
Over the next few days, the longwave troughing over the eastern U. slowly lifts, and the Atlantic ridge tries to nudge in to the region again.
357 PM EDT Tue Aug 20 2024 A broad area of low pressure along the New England coast into the Canadian Maritime will be slow to lift to the northeast the next couple of days. At the same time, high pressure over the Great Lakes will nudge ever so slowly east toward the area and become the predominate feature by the end of the week.
Enough moisture lingering in the low to mid levels has allowed some scattered clouds to develop in the northerly flow between the persistent ridge aloft across the southwestern US and the trough to the east. On the positive side, dewpoints across the area have been fairly comfortable, with middle 60s across central LA to the lower/middle 70s across southern LA and lower SE TX, while higher dewpoints are confined closer to the coast. Current heat index values range from the lower 90s to around 100 degrees although KBPT has briefly climbed to 108-110 this afternoon.
The blocking pattern with a highly amplified ridge stretching from the Hudson Bay down through the Four Corners region remains in place at the start of the period. CVG 45F (1950) CMH 44F (1950) DAY 46F (1950) Have most areas dropping into the low 50s/ upper 40s. The only site that may tickle a record would be DAY (forecast low of 47F), however, would not be surprised to see some low 40s during early morning hours in our cooler valley spots. Additionally, temperatures on Wednesday should also be a tad warmer, reaching the mid 70s. Overnight lows again drop to the low 50s with upper 40s in spots.
Low temperatures are forecast to be in the lower to middle 60s.
Through Wednesday: Pleasant late summer weather is expected to persist through midweek as an early Autumn-like airmass dominants under an and expansive upper trough/low centered across the eastern Great a few degrees below average, Lakes.
(Now through Wednesday) Cooler and drier conditions continue through Wednesday night. The upper trough will continue to deepen across the eastern US while upper ridging builds over the west. At the surface the cold front has pushed well into the central Gulf. While high temperatures will still climb into the 90s, it just won't feel as bad out with the lower moisture values.
120 PM EDT Tue Aug 20 2024 High pressure and a dry but cool airmass will remain in place across the Ohio Valley through Wednesday. Temperatures will remain well below normal with afternoon highs only in the low to mid 70s.
Another weak impulse rotating around the periphery of the upper high may bring another batch of light showers and thunderstorms to areas west of Tulsa around sunrise, similar to what occurred this morning.
(This evening through Wednesday night) Upper ridging was centered over the southern Rockies this afternoon with troughing along the Atlantic Coast.
114 PM EDT Tue Aug 20 2024 High pressure brings dry weather today through the weekend.
Quiet weather is expected through the short term as we find ourselves on the back side of an upper level trough. Overall, temperatures in the low 50s should be widespread with values in the 40s in rural / sheltered locations. The overall pattern will remain stagnant across the Midwest this work-week, with central Indiana positioned on the the upward side of an upper level trough.
110 PM EDT Tue Aug 20 2024 High pressure over the Great Lakes will provide a northerly flow across the TN Valley, bringing below normal temperatures and dewpoints today and tonight. Cooler and drier weather expected today and tomorrow Discussion: Currently mostly clear skies outside early this morning with a few low level clouds passing through as we sit on the eastern edge of the strengthening ridge. Biggest weather of note today and tomorrow will be the cooler temperatures with guidance suggesting that most locations along and north of Interstate 40 likely topping out below 80 degrees today. Daytime highs on Wednesday are expected to be just a couple of degrees warmer than what we reach today.
Temperatures will be below normal, ranging from the mid 80s to the low 90s.
353 PM EDT Tue Aug 20 2024 A slow moving upper level low will track across the northeast United States through mid week with chilly and unsettled weather for northeast PA and central NY. After this low passes east, high pressure will build in for the end of the week into the weekend with fair and warmer weather. For tonight, upper level low drops south from Quebec and brings more wrap around moisture which will combine with lake moisture to increase chances of showers tonight. For Wednesday, upper level low will be overhead and it will be chilly aloft. Upper level low will be moving through northern New England with continued lingering wrap around moisture working across mainly central NY.
This morning's weak cold front has become nearly stationary over us extending from the NW to SE roughly from Childress to near Centerville. The rest of North Texas will see highs in the upper 90s to near 104, with the exception of the northeast where temperatures will stay in the low to mid 90s. The mid/upper level ridge will slowly drift eastward, but the surface boundary will remain stalled over us.
The big weather story may be the lows tonight, where areas in north Georgia will drop into the 50s (!) with widespread 60s across the rest of the CWA, with the exception of far south central Georgia where better moisture continues to hang on.
1152 AM CDT Tue Aug 20 2024 (Today through Wednesday) The center of the Subtropical Ridge remains over New Mexico in the short term. Values up to 116 are expected, with the highest on Wednesday as some moisture moves in from the east. Subsidence under the Ridge and a slightly drier than normal airmass should keep rain out of the forecast today.
Northwest flow aloft will continue across the region through Wednesday as ridging dominates out west, while the Appalachians and northeast remain underneath troughing. High pressure to the north will keep northerly flow in place keeping temperatures below normal.
1221 PM CDT Tue Aug 20 2024 - Cooler today with light rain showers and a few rumbles of thunder through the morning, with increasing sun for the afternoon.
The pattern aloft features a broad ridge that puts the greater Ozarks region in a northwesterly flow pattern. The northwest flow regime will bring below average temperatures, peaking in the mid-80s to the far southwest and in the low 80s elsewhere; temperatures may not even break the 80 degree mark further toward central Missouri.
1158 AM EDT Tue Aug 20 2024 A cold front will slowly exit the Downeast coast today while low pressure moves along the front.
Can it get much hotter? The persistent ridge of high pressure over the southern High Plains will lead to high temperatures increasing to near 110 degrees F across Mitchell and Scurry counties Wednesday afternoon. Much of the remainder of the Permian Basin and the lower Trans Pecos will soar to 105-110F.
1243 PM CDT Tue Aug 20 2024 A ridge of high pressure will bring a continuation of rain-free weather to the Lower Mississippi Valley for the next seven days.
Looking at current water vapor satellite imagery, there is a deep upper level low going inland currently on the coast of Washington. Wednesday models show overall dry conditions but winds increase (gusts near 20 to 30 mph) as the upper level low over the coast of Washington weakens and moves over northern Idaho.
19Z water vapor satellite imagery and RAP upper air analysis indicates a strong, cut-off mid-level ridge remains in place over the southern and central plains, flanked by a pair of troughs on either side. Daytime Wednesday, short range ensembles agree the mid-level ridge will begin to inch eastward ever so slightly. Strong subsidence under this feature will support 850-mb temperatures rising by 2-3C, which will translate into a slightly warmer day for southwest KS as afternoon highs reach the upper 80s northeast to the upper 90s southwest. While proximity to the center of the mid-level ridge will only foster weak deep-layer shear, steep lapse rates may still support a marginal severe threat with damaging wind gusts and quarter-size hail the primary threats.
Combined with low level humidity, (dewpoints in the low to upper 70s) will result in expected heat indices today between 110-114 with some locations exceeding 115 briefly along the northern Coastal Bend.
Latest models support our current forecast of slight cooling today behind a weak cold front currently ne-sw near Missoula/MT-Baker/OR- Lakeview/OR.
Another couple of days of monsoon activity expected in northwestern Arizona before a trough of low pressure dries out the region and cools temperatures to below-average readings this weekend.
Atlantic ridge axis will remain south of the region today as weak low pressure along a stalled frontal boundary persists near to across north Florida. In the mid to upper levels a trough will remain extended across the eastern U. Highs should be able to reach the low to mid 90s, with peak heat indices of 102-107F before convection and cloud cover increases across the area this afternoon.
Have increased cloud cover overnight and adjusted temperatures a degree or two warmer with the cloud cover. The only caveat to this may be a slight cloud coverage increase as mid/upper level moisture advects around the periphery of the low which would offset otherwise efficient radiating. ------------------------------------------------------------------- There is high confidence in the clusters in the progression of the pattern through week's end with the upper low still sitting across New England on Wednesday but slowly starting to pull away as heights show minimal rises through the day.
High pressure will continue to reinforce dry air, and temperatures will continue falling into the mid to upper 50s by tomorrow morning.
801 PM EDT Tue Aug 20 2024 (This evening through Wednesday) A highly amplified pattern will continue across the Conus, with a trough over the Atlantic coast and a ridge over the Plains. Daily Record Low Minimum Temperatures Date Chattanooga Knoxville Tri-Cities Oak Ridge 08-21 56(1927) 57(1893) 53(2012) 56(2012) (Wednesday night through next Tuesday) Key Messages: 1.
614 PM CDT Tue Aug 20 2024 (This evening through Wednesday night) Upper ridging was centered over the southern Rockies this afternoon with troughing along the Atlantic Coast.
908 PM EDT Tue Aug 20 2024 A broad low pressure area extending from the New England coast into the Canadian Maritimes will be slow to lift to the northeast the next couple of days. At the same time, high pressure over the Great Lakes will nudge ever so slowly east toward the area and become the dominant feature by the end of the week.
Drier air will be present north of I-4 leading to overnight temperatures falling into the lower 70s. SW flow will continue through Wednesday, keeping the higher rain chances and timing more in the morning and early afternoon.
CMA A ridge of high pressure will bring a continuation of rain-free weather to the Lower Mississippi Valley for the next seven days.
The latest HRRR model indicates that the Lower Treasure Valley and Upper Weiser Basin will likely experience the most smoke.
618 PM CDT Tue Aug 20 2024 A ridge of high pressure will bring a continuation of rain-free weather to the Lower Mississippi Valley for the next seven days.
GOES water vapor satellite imagery shows fairly dry air in the mid to upper troposphere rotating over our area on the top of the strong subtropical ridge centered over New Mexico. The main areas to watch will be Carbon County, the vicinity of the higher terrain, and possibly around a local convergence boundary on the north side of the North Platte River Valley in between Scottsbluff and Alliance. The western flank of the subtropical ridge will break down tonight and allow moisture to flood northward once again out of the Gulf of California region across Arizona and Utah towards our area.
With dewpoints already in the upper 50s to lower 60s currently, forecast low temps in the low to mid 60s appear very reasonable. It's not out of the realm of possibility a few typically cooler spots could sneak into the upper 50s by daybreak.
933 PM EDT Tue Aug 20 2024 High pressure building down from the northwest will bring mainly dry and near to slightly-below normal temperatures through late this week. Mins should be in the low to mid 60s. A surface cold front is now off the coast with a mid-level trough axis overhead. This trough is expected to remain overhead while dampening through Wednesday. All of this translates to remarkably pleasant weather for mid-August with morning lows in the mid-60s and daytime highs reaching the low- mid 80s on Wednesday.