Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
Isentropic upglide rain showers over and just north of the cold front (including portions of the Florida panhandle) will shift south with the front, leaving land portions of the forecast area dry by this evening. Strong northerly flow behind the front will usher in a cooler, drier airmass, with temperatures dropping to below seasonal norms. Tonight, temperatures across the forecast area drop into the low 30s north of Highway 84 to near 40 near the coast.
Conversely, areas father to the south over the snow covered areas will have held in the lower to middle 20s. Accordingly, progressively warmer temperatures are expected over the next few days. For Sunday, readings are expected to top out in the upper 30s in the snow covered areas south of I-80, and into the low to mid 40s in the snow free areas of northern IL.
Residual high clouds will persist overhead while the lower clouds will continue to dissipate as drier air continues to move in through the lower and middle levels. Breezy conditions due to the pressure gradient with low pressure to the southeast and strong high pressure to our northwest will continue through sunset with winds from the north at 10-20 mph at times. High temperatures have already been achieved earlier with readings from the low 40s far north to the upper 50s far southeast. Dry conditions will persist, resulting in a widespread freeze for all but the far southeast with lows from the mid 20s northwest to near freezing far southeast. High temperatures will struggle to reach 50 far north and in the higher terrain east to readings in the mid 50s far southeast.
Some high cloud cover will likely persist into the evening hrs, as an upper trough pattern dives southward into the Mid South/lower MS Valley areas. The influx of cooler air out of the north will also continue tonight, with lows falling into the upper teens/near 20F in southern mid TN and into the lower 20s across north AL.
This cooler pattern will continue through tomorrow with ridging aloft maintaining mostly sunny skies and temperature maximums/minimums in the 50s and 30s respectively.
Depending on the timing of the thickening clouds, they could help insulate some of the warmer daytime energy. It will help keep overnight lows warmer than previous night.
311 PM CST Sat Feb 17 2024 Through Sunday: Cold air advection will continue through tonight as high pressure builds in the wake of last night's cold frontal passage. Satellite imagery this afternoon shows a nice baroclinic leaf structure associated with a low pressure system over northern Mexico and upper- level warm advection over the Gulf Coast. Frost is possible tonight into Sunday morning as skies begin to clear and lighter winds arrive with the core of high pressure. Better cooling potential will exist Sunday night as the high pressure slides directly overhead, so have nudged Min Temps slightly cooler for tomorrow night.
Blowing and drifting and melting/refreezing may also create some icy spots. Winds subside to start the upcoming week as high pressure builds into the area.
Sunday will similar to today temperatures wise, although with a back door cold front pushing westward, the northern and eastern CWA will be a little cooler. Early in the work week, strong upper level ridging to our west breaks down temporarily and upper level energy over the western U.
(Sunday night through next Saturday) Despite the very cold temperatures Sunday morning, temperatures will be warming nicely the rest of the week, with a broad upper ridging developing over the region and Central United States.
930 PM EST Sat Feb 17 2024 High pressure should control the weather over the Southeast into the beginning of the work week. The 00Z surface analysis showed continued NW flow across central NC, with the 1029mb high centered over OK, ridging eastward through the Appalachians and into the mid-Atlantic. Should some of the more sheltered isolated locations go calm (possible) AND there be a break or thinning of the high clouds (less likely), they could drop to around 20 degrees. This setup will change little over the next 24 hours, with the high drifting slightly to the east. The temperature forecast tomorrow could be somewhat tricky, depending on how thick the high clouds remain during the day. Went slightly under NBM temperature guidance, and have highs ranging from the mid 40s to the lower 50s, a bit cooler than today's highs.
To our west, midlevel ridging can be identified nosing eastward toward the Rockies. As a low-level trof pivots away from the area and toward the Great Lakes this afternoon and evening, a relaxing pressure gradient should bring weakening winds. Modest lee troughing and associated pressure falls from Alberta through the central High Plains will promote speedy return flow over portions of northeastern WY tonight into tomorrow morning. Combined, these features should contribute to temperatures 5-15 F warmer than today's highs.
Area of low pressure near the Hudson Bay is expected to work south tonight with the pressure gradient increasing aloft. As the low moves east Sunday morning, expect winds aloft to relax, however, dry air in place will continue to yield clear skies across the region.
Weak ridging has built in along the northern Rockies today behind yesterday's trough. The ridge gets pushed east tonight by a quick trough sweeping in off the PacNW Coast. Temperatures will moderate on Sunday, but some trapped cold pools will linger in the lower Wind River Basin and the Bighorn Basin.
High pressure will build in from the west as much cooler and drier air moves into the Carolinas. Cloud cover should limit ideal radiational cooling, therefore hedged warmer than statistical guidance, esp srn half of the FA. This low will remain well offshore, reaching our latitude Tues night.
531 PM CST Sat Feb 17 2024 (Tonight through Sunday night) Key Messages: - Medium to high chance of brief freezing temperatures tonight - Breezy conditions continue A chilly day is unfolding across the region with temperatures currently in the mid to upper 40s along with a breezy northerly wind. There is a medium to high (50-80% chance) of some locations seeing freezing temps tonight, generally across our northern counties in the typical drainage areas. Will opt for an SPS to handle it tonight as the freezing temps will not be widespread and will only last for a short time. Highs tomorrow will remain in the cooler side as high pressure takes control.
Otherwise not much has changed to the forecast as high clouds continue to stream in from the south and west while winds remain light as high pressure builds in from the west. High pressure will build in from the west as much cooler and drier air moves into the Carolinas. Cloud cover should limit ideal radiational cooling, therefore hedged warmer than statistical guidance, esp srn half of the FA. This low will remain well offshore, reaching our latitude Tues night.
838 PM EST Sat Feb 17 2024 High pressure will result in dry conditions across the area through the early part of the week. Tight pressure gradient between low pressure passing across the upper Great Lakes and high pressure centered to the southwest will result in gusty winds on Sunday. Winds will diminish fairly quickly late in the day as the low moves east and the pressure gradient relaxes. The high will build in Sunday night.
Sunny and warmer tomorrow along with low RH values. Discussion: Much colder air is in place behind the cold front. Wind Chills from the single digits to teens are expected across the higher elevations of the east and southwest VA mountains. High pressure gradually begins to build into our area from the southwest through the day tomorrow. Height rises mean warmer afternoon temps but still slightly below normal. Highs will range from the low to upper 40s for most places. With the dry air still in place and warmer temps, RH values will be low across the area and range from the mid 20s to low 30s for most places.
642 PM EST Sat Feb 17 2024 High pressure builds into the area after a cold frontal passage this evening.
649 PM EST Sat Feb 17 2024 High pressure will result in dry conditions across the area through the early part of the week. Tight pressure gradient between low pressure passing across the upper Great Lakes and high pressure centered to the southwest will result in gusty winds on Sunday. Winds will diminish fairly quickly late in the day as the low moves east and the pressure gradient relaxes. The high will build in Sunday night.
Sunday morning lows will be below freezing for everyone, ranging from the upper teens to near 31 in the urban heat island of the DFW Metroplex.
224 PM MST Sat Feb 17 2024 High amplitude ridge axis was sliding over us today with a switch from northerly flow in the mid levels to westerly flow. Lee side pressure falls and cold air over YNP and the Big Horn Basin have helped produce windy conditions across the western foothills and areas from Bridger to Billings.
302 PM CST Sat Feb 17 2024 Through Sunday: Cold air advection will continue through tonight as high pressure builds in the wake of last night's cold frontal passage. Satellite imagery this afternoon shows a nice baroclinic leaf structure associated with a low pressure system over northern Mexico and upper- level warm advection over the Gulf Coast. Frost is possible tonight into Sunday morning as skies begin to clear and lighter winds arrive with the core of high pressure. Better cooling potential will exist Sunday night as the high pressure slides directly overhead, so have nudged Min Temps slightly cooler for tomorrow night.
527 PM CST Sat Feb 17 2024 (This evening through Sunday night) 19z WV satellite shows an upper wave over SE CO, an upper ridge trying to build over the intermountain west, and a wave over CA. Sunday, as CA upper wave moves over CO, modest lee troughing will occur to our north.
At the surface, post-frontal stratus is banked hard up against the higher terrain, and now dissipating as fast as the NBM depicts. Sunday, weak return flow resumes, and temperatures attempt to recover as thicknesses increase with the onset of upper ridging from the west and dry, northwest flow aloft.
557 PM CST Sat Feb 17 2024 Through Sunday: Cold air advection will continue through tonight as high pressure builds in the wake of last night's cold frontal passage. Satellite imagery this afternoon shows a nice baroclinic leaf structure associated with a low pressure system over northern Mexico and upper- level warm advection over the Gulf Coast. Frost is possible tonight into Sunday morning as skies begin to clear and lighter winds arrive with the core of high pressure. Better cooling potential will exist Sunday night as the high pressure slides directly overhead, so have nudged Min Temps slightly cooler for tomorrow night.
105 AM MST Sun Feb 18 2024 High pressure will hold steady over the region through the middle of the week supporting a continuation of above normal temperatures and dry conditions.
This is due to complicated troughing driving eastward through the eastern United States and Gulf of Mexico and shoving out the ridging that had been in control. Surface conditions are quite warm and humid with temperatures in the mid 70s and dew points in the lower 70s. The approaching deep layered trough will result in considerable cooling and moistening aloft on top of increasingly moist confluence through the lower levels. For now, no reason to adjust current forecast trends, keeping chance pops for the overnight, with highest pops in the Lower Keys. Expect overnight lows to settle in the lower 70s, very close to the dew points. A complicated and sprawling low pressure system will advance eastward through the Gulf of Mexico and into Keys waters through the overnight period.
The latest satellite imagery depicts plenty of upper level clouds overhead with decent cold air advection in the lower levels. A short wave trough dives into the lower Mississippi River Valley tonight and cuts off on Sunday. This feature is still somewhat progressive and will clear the high clouds out northwest to southeast on Sunday. Dry conditions will persist, resulting in a widespread freeze for all but the far southeast with lows from the mid 20s northwest to near freezing far southeast. High temperatures will struggle to reach 50 far north and in the higher terrain east to readings in the mid 50s far southeast.
High pressure and dry conditions are expected overnight. A good fetch of subtropical moisture (generally above 500 mb) should keep the high cloud cover going into tomorrow. Still, freezing or near freezing temperatures (25 to 35 degrees) are likely for most of northern and central Georgia by Sunday morning.
------------------------------------------------------------------- Flurries north of PIT will end overnight as surface ridging builds in, and the boundary layer flow backs to the SW. Another wave will pivot through the broad NE trough on Sunday. More notable will be the tightening pressure gradient between the building high pressure and the departing low to out north.
1024 PM CST Sat Feb 17 2024 (Tonight through Sunday night) The cold front has pushed well south of Deep South Texas. Latest GOES-16 water vapor imagery shows a 500 mb low/trough over the Mexican State of Zacatecas. Dry weather with limited cloud cover will occur on Sunday as the mid-level flow over the Deep South Texas shifts to out of the northwest in the wake of the trough. Sunny and cool on Sunday with highs in the upper 50s to the lower 60s. Chilly Sunday night with lows falling in the upper 30s to the low 40s, except for the mid to upper 40s at the coast. Finally, with elevated winds and seas courtesy of the passage of the cold front, a High Risk of rip currents will exist at the local beaches until around sunset Sunday.
With the center of the high overhead light winds will also prevail overnight making for excellent radiational cooling conditions hence another chilly night is on tap as temperatures drop into the upper teens and low to mid 20s.
112 AM EST Sun Feb 18 2024 High pressure will result in dry conditions across the area through the early part of the week. Tight pressure gradient between low pressure passing across the upper Great Lakes and high pressure centered to the southwest will result in gusty winds on Sunday. Winds will diminish fairly quickly late in the day as the low moves east and the pressure gradient relaxes. The high will build in Sunday night.
Latest analysis shows 1028mb high pressure centered over OK and northern TX, extending eastward into the Carolinas. Cool high pressure will continue to build in from the west today. Persistent broken to overcast mid and high clouds will stick around today courtesy of upper trough and strong jet dynamics.
/DC/ Through Sunday: Cold air advection will continue through tonight as high pressure builds in the wake of last night's cold frontal passage. Satellite imagery this afternoon shows a nice baroclinic leaf structure associated with a low pressure system over northern Mexico and upper- level warm advection over the Gulf Coast. Frost is possible tonight into Sunday morning as skies begin to clear and lighter winds arrive with the core of high pressure. Better cooling potential will exist Sunday night as the high pressure slides directly overhead, so have nudged Min Temps slightly cooler for tomorrow night.
339 AM EST Sun Feb 18 2024 High pressure will result in dry conditions across the area through the early part of the week.
1030 PM CST Sat Feb 17 2024 (This evening through Sunday night) 19z WV satellite shows an upper wave over SE CO, an upper ridge trying to build over the intermountain west, and a wave over CA. Sunday, as CA upper wave moves over CO, modest lee troughing will occur to our north.
Although modest NNW winds will subside and back to WNW with time as a low-level ridge noses into the region from the SW, flow will remain around 5 MPH during the early morning hours Sunday, creating wind chill readings in the 15-20F range.
While the strength of the low level wind fields will weaken during the course of the day, increasing daytime mixing depths will still sustain gusty winds through afternoon as model soundings show 25 to 30 knots in the mixed layer.
322 AM EST Sun Feb 18 2024 Another weak system will pass north of the area today with a cold front crossing tonight.
300 AM CST Sun Feb 18 2024 - Warmer than normal weather for the foreseeable future, with still a few chilly mornings at times and very mild afternoons. These readings are anywhere from around 10 to as much as 20 degrees warmer from yesterday at the same time. The abundant solar insolation, and deeper mixing as winds turn northwesterly by afternoon should get push highs in the lower to mid 40s for many. Tonight will be another chilly one, as a weak high pressure ridge settles across the area.
356 AM EST Sun Feb 18 2024 High pressure will prevail through mid week bringing dry weather and slowly warming temperatures.
1104 PM CST Sat Feb 17 2024 (Tonight through Sunday night) Key Messages: - Medium to high chance of brief freezing temperatures tonight - Breezy conditions continue A chilly day is unfolding across the region with temperatures currently in the mid to upper 40s along with a breezy northerly wind. There is a medium to high (50-80% chance) of some locations seeing freezing temps tonight, generally across our northern counties in the typical drainage areas. Will opt for an SPS to handle it tonight as the freezing temps will not be widespread and will only last for a short time. Highs tomorrow will remain in the cooler side as high pressure takes control.
There is a 25-35% chance of exceeding 6" across the high peaks/ridges of the Sawtooths and Tetons. This round will have warmer temperatures with it, so most of the snow will be above 6500ft.
After a cold start to the day, temperatures will climb into the lower to mid 50s for highs this afternoon, with mostly sunny skies. (Sunday night through next Saturday) Despite the very cold temperatures Sunday morning, temperatures will be warming nicely the rest of the week, with a broad upper ridging developing over the region and Central United States.
The cold front has moved south of the area as of this evening and is forecast to stall over south Florida overnight. However, will see lower 60s stick around along the Treasure Coast, which saw much warmer afternoon temperatures than areas to the north.
Winds come around to the south by late in the day and increase as surface pressure gradient tightens with lee trough deepens.
Temperatures currently running in the low 20s and upper teens will give way to highs this afternoon in the low to mid 50s under clear skies.
320 AM EST Sun Feb 18 2024 High pressure builds into the region early then moves east this afternoon. Another low will cross northern Maine tonight dragging a cold front through the area.
1233 AM EST Sun Feb 18 2024 High pressure should control the weather over the Southeast into the beginning of the work week. The 00Z surface analysis showed continued NW flow across central NC, with the 1029mb high centered over OK, ridging eastward through the Appalachians and into the mid-Atlantic. Should some of the more sheltered isolated locations go calm (possible) AND there be a break or thinning of the high clouds (less likely), they could drop to around 20 degrees. This setup will change little over the next 24 hours, with the high drifting slightly to the east. The temperature forecast tomorrow could be somewhat tricky, depending on how thick the high clouds remain during the day. Went slightly under NBM temperature guidance, and have highs ranging from the mid 40s to the lower 50s, a bit cooler than today's highs.
Pacific warm front moving into our CWA about as forecast. Behind the warm front Sunday afternoon will be warmer than it was today and all snow in the Snake Basin will melt.
The passage of both the surface and mid/upper-level features will keep the southwesterly breeze intact tonight, causing overnight temperatures to fall into the lower-middle 30s beneath a clear sky area-wide.
1246 AM EST Sun Feb 18 2024 (06Z TAFS) Rain continues to push across terminals as a cold front slowly sags south across the region.
1242 AM EST Sun Feb 18 2024 Breezy today before high pressure builds into the new work week, with a warming trend. Channeled flow between high pressure across the Southern Plains and low pressure tracking south of James Bay will yield breezy conditions today with sustained winds 8-15 mph and gusts 20-30 mph, highest across the north this afternoon. Warm advection in southwesterly flow will yield daytime highs in the low 40s across much of the lower elevations despite starting out in the teens and lower 20s this morning. Gradients fade this evening as the aforementioned areas of high pressure sinks into the Deep South concurrently with the area of low pressure moving off into the Canadian Maritimes.
Latest analysis shows 1028mb high pressure centered over OK and northern TX, extending eastward into the Carolinas. Cool high pressure will continue to build in from the west today. Persistent broken to overcast mid and high clouds will stick around today courtesy of upper trough and strong jet dynamics. This low will remain well offshore, reaching our latitude Tues night.
- Trending warmer by the middle of the week. PATTERN SYNOPSIS: A deep upper low was centered at the north end of Hudson Bay, with a trough axis extending down across New England. In the west, an upper ridge across the intermountain west was beginning to break down as a large amount of energy piles into the west coast. The latest in a parade of disturbances moving through the upper trough described above is now exiting the region. PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: A ridge of high pressure stretches across eastern CONUS and downstream is a trough continuing to be pushed eastward out of the Great Lakes Region.
Quiet weather will prevail through the majority of the upcoming week, as a ridge begins to build over the central CONUS.
320 AM EST Sun Feb 18 2024 Breezy today before high pressure builds into the new work week, with a warming trend. Channeled flow between high pressure across the Southern Plains and low pressure tracking south of James Bay will yield breezy conditions today with sustained winds 8-15 mph and gusts 20-30 mph, highest across the north this afternoon. Warm advection in southwesterly flow will yield daytime highs in the low 40s across much of the lower elevations despite starting out in the teens and lower 20s this morning. Gradients fade this evening as the aforementioned area of high pressure sinks into the Deep South concurrently with the area of low pressure moving off into the Canadian Maritimes.
Overnight, the cold front will begin to push through the area tonight with rain coverage becoming increasingly widespread and steady. (Rest of today through Sunday) An approaching cold front will drive an increase in shower and thunderstorm chances tonight into Sunday. Overnight lows will remain fairly mild ranging from the upper 50s in Glades County to the lower 70s right along the Atlantic coast.
DDV Issued 209 PM CST Sat Feb 17 2024 Tonight through Sunday night: Cyclonic flow at 500 mb should linger over the region during this period, as low pressure gradually strengthens well northeast of the region. This will occur despite lows in the lower 20s tonight and highs in the middle to upper 30s for Sunday, as some warm air advection occurs with the gusty winds. Lows should remain in the lower 20s Sunday night.
A warming trend will commence today with the return of southwesterly low level flow beneath a dampening ridge aloft migrating from the central Rockies front range across the central Plains.
Shallow upstream ridge with a deeper eastern CONUS trough results in northwest flow aloft.
100 AM EST Sun Feb 18 2024 High pressure will build from the south and west overnight.
Latest analysis shows 1027mb high pressure centered over TX, extending eastward into the Carolinas. Cool high pressure will continue to build in from the west today. Persistent broken to overcast mid and high clouds will stick around today courtesy of upper trough and strong jet dynamics. This low will remain well offshore, reaching our latitude Tues night.