Aikyam-Lab/Synoptic-Bench huggingface dataset:
- A weak cold front moves through Friday evening, bringing a cool north wind shift. Of note is Jackson Valley, where mid-level clouds have kept the eroding sunshine from breaking up the lower clouds. A weak cold front pushes through in the evening. This shifts winds to the north and northeast, with a slight breeze and cooler temperatures.
(This evening through Friday) Water vapor channel imagery highlights a broad upper ridge centered over northern Mexico gradually expanding northward early this afternoon, resulting in a continued lack of any features of interest aloft over West Texas. We still expect convective growth today to be constrained by a dramatic increase in mid and upper level subsidence associated with the expansion of aforementioned ridging aloft. On Friday, the closed upper low off the CA coast will begin to accelerate eastward with the upper ridge progged to contract southeastward compared to today. Given only very modest height falls on Friday, temperatures will be similar to today with highs ranging from the low 90s near the TX/NM state line to the low 100s across the far SE TX Panhandle.
112 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024 (Today through Friday Night) Surface ridging across the northern Gulf Coast and expansive mid- upper ridging aloft will maintain above normal temperatures and meager, if any, rain chances.
(This evening through Friday Night) The current synoptic pattern is characterized by a strengthening upper-level ridge axis across the Texas Big Bend region and along Rio Grande Valley extending northward into the Southern Plains. This ridge will be the dominant feature through this short-term period and beyond, driving temperatures even higher on Friday with mid 90s expected across the vast majority of the region. Overnight low temperatures will largely range through the lower to mid 70s aside from some isolated upper 60s across a few of our northernmost locations.
Dry and warmer tomorrow, with temperatures around 5 to 8 degrees above normal. Tomorrow, expect a dry day with warmer temperatures as the ridge further builds across the area. Based on the higher temps, we can expect min RH values down in the mid to upper 30s for some areas. Discussion: Upper-level 500mb 590-591 dam ridge across the Southern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley will result in dry and warm weather into the Tennessee Valley through the weekend.
(Tonight through Friday night) An upper level ridge continues to reside over the southern plains this afternoon. The low level pressure field is somewhat ill defined. The upper ridge will shift ever so slowly toward the east during the short term period. Models show the low level flow becoming better established from the southeast tonight, and that will continue through Friday night. Subsident flow from the upper ridge will keep the weather dry through the period.
150 PM EDT Thu Sep 19 2024 High pressure centered over eastern Quebec will extend southeastward across the Lower Great Lakes through Friday night.
Temperatures are climbing into the low 80s, on the way to another afternoon in the upper 80s to low 90s.
At the surface, cold front extends from eastern Nebraska into central KS. Still looking for additional development by early this evening along the cold front/trough with current thinking that the initial development maybe over north central OK. For Fri into Fri evening, West Coast upper low will track from Southern CA into the Desert Southwest. In response we will get back into some return flow across the area on Fri as what is left of the cold front washes out. By Sat afternoon, there is good model agreement in the upper low tracking over the Four Corners region and across the Central Rockies Sat night. By Mon morning the upper impulse will be tracking into IA with cold front exiting the forecast area. Widely scattered showers/storms expected along a surface trof/dry-line front this afternoon through early this evening across southeast Kansas.
(This evening through Friday night) All is quiet for the short term as the upper level ridge tries to push east. Into tomorrow we will see much of the same as the ridge continues to try to push eastward further into our area. The low to mid 90s are likely for the majority of the area tomorrow.
240 PM EDT Thu Sep 19 2024 High pressure centered over eastern Quebec will extend southeastward across the Lower Great Lakes through Friday night.
Main focus of this update was to increase PoPs slightly tomorrow to account for the slight potential of precipitation with the backdoor cold front expected to move through the forecast area. Models continue to depict a back door cold front backing into our area from the east on Friday, and some spot showers are possible with this feature. Cooler northeast flow will keep daytime high temperatures around the mid 70s to near 80.
/NEW/ /Through Friday Night/ Above-normal temperatures will remain the primary weather story through tomorrow as a mid level ridge continues to strengthen overhead. For Friday night football, temperatures will start out in the lower 90s and gradually fall into the lower to mid 80s through the evening.
MM (This evening through Friday) The upper level low that brought rain showers and thunderstorms to the interior Central Coast this morning remains south of the Monterey Bay region. The warmest conditions this afternoon will be across the North Bay and East Bay with interior areas warming into the low 80's with 60's and 70's as you move closer to the coast. The upper level trough will push further inland Friday, yet its effects will still linger with temperatures remaining below seasonal averages.
620 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024 (This evening through Friday Night) Upper level ridging centered over the TX Big Bend/northern MX remains strong, resulting in little weather pattern change across SE TX. At the surface, high pressure system continues overhead, leading to light to occasionally moderate warm and humid onshore flow. Highs will generally range into the low to mid 90s.
A few showers will be possible well offshore tonight as a trough/weak front moves southward. pdf Cold front will sink to the south Tonight, with high pressure building from the north.
Gulf Coast region remains on the eastern periphery of ridging over the International Border, locking in dry northwest flow, per 1.
614 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024 (This evening through Friday) Water vapor channel imagery highlights a broad upper ridge centered over northern Mexico gradually expanding northward early this afternoon, resulting in a continued lack of any features of interest aloft over West Texas. We still expect convective growth today to be constrained by a dramatic increase in mid and upper level subsidence associated with the expansion of aforementioned ridging aloft. On Friday, the closed upper low off the CA coast will begin to accelerate eastward with the upper ridge progged to contract southeastward compared to today. Given only very modest height falls on Friday, temperatures will be similar to today with highs ranging from the low 90s near the TX/NM state line to the low 100s across the far SE TX Panhandle.
The center of the low pressure system will gradually move in Southern California Friday, with dry weather returning to interior Northern California. High pressure begins to build in Friday as eastern Pacific ridging builds eastward.
634 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024 (Tonight through Friday night) An upper level ridge continues to reside over the southern plains this afternoon. The low level pressure field is somewhat ill defined. The upper ridge will shift ever so slowly toward the east during the short term period. Models show the low level flow becoming better established from the southeast tonight, and that will continue through Friday night. Subsident flow from the upper ridge will keep the weather dry through the period.
621 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024 (This evening through Friday night) All is quiet for the short term as the upper level ridge tries to push east. Into tomorrow we will see much of the same as the ridge continues to try to push eastward further into our area. The low to mid 90s are likely for the majority of the area tomorrow.
744 PM EDT Thu Sep 19 2024 High pressure centered over eastern Quebec will extend southeastward across the Lower Great Lakes through Friday night.
An upper-level ridge prevailing areawide to maintain stable conditions. Expect mostly clear skies and overnight lows in the lower 70s. /05/ (This evening through Friday Night) The current synoptic pattern is characterized by a strengthening upper-level ridge axis across the Texas Big Bend region and along Rio Grande Valley extending northward into the Southern Plains. This ridge will be the dominant feature through this short-term period and beyond, driving temperatures even higher on Friday with mid 90s expected across the vast majority of the region. Overnight low temperatures will largely range through the lower to mid 70s aside from some isolated upper 60s across a few of our northernmost locations.
Increased pops slightly north of HWY 2 to better reflect current coverage as the upper low slides by to our north with diminished chances after 10 pm due to the loss of heating and any MUCAPE. A mid/upper low is centered over southern Manitoba, with drier BL conditions and cooler temperatures aloft already in place behind a cold front (now to the east). Diurnal showers/sprinkles are still rotating into northeast ND at the base of this upper low due to the cold pool/low level lapse rates, but should quickly dissipate with sunset/decoupling in the low levels.
Meanwhile, high pressure begins to build into the region from the north and west giving our region a dry weekend. As of 545 PM: Scattered showers continue near the Blue Ridge Escarpment, generally weakening as evening cooling occurs, but with cumulus still looking vertically developed in spots particularly west of Hendersonville. There may be some limited convective activity across the mtns due to ridge top convg, but coverage of precip will be low-end due to the aforementioned subs and mlvl warming. As of 145 PM EDT Thursday: Upper ridge will be dominating the Southern Plains as we move into the short term, with trough in place over the East Coast.
At the surface, cold front extends from eastern Nebraska into central KS. Still looking for additional development by early this evening along the cold front/trough with current thinking that the initial development maybe over north central OK. For Fri into Fri evening, West Coast upper low will track from Southern CA into the Desert Southwest. In response we will get back into some return flow across the area on Fri as what is left of the cold front washes out. By Sat afternoon, there is good model agreement in the upper low tracking over the Four Corners region and across the Central Rockies Sat night. By Mon morning the upper impulse will be tracking into IA with cold front exiting the forecast area.
(Tonight) High pressure promoting mostly clear and calm conditions overnight across the Tennessee Valley. Once again, this is a good setup for radiational cooling as temperatures fall back into the low to mid 60s in most locations.
Lower heights aloft were once again seen this evening as the expansive troughing along the Eastern Seaboard extends down across the Keys. Light and often variable breezes will continue overnight into tomorrow due to a persistent trough/low near the Atlantic Coast and a weak high east of the Bahamas. Heading into this weekend, the low will meander further out into the Atlantic as ridging expands its control across the southeastern United States. Boaters can expect less clearance under fixed bridges.
1022 PM EDT Thu Sep 19 2024 High pressure centered over eastern Quebec will extend southeastward across the Lower Great Lakes through Friday night.
(Through Friday) High pressure gradually builds into the region as the flow aloft becomes increasingly anticyclonic.
544 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024 (This evening through Friday Night) The current synoptic pattern is characterized by a strengthening upper-level ridge axis across the Texas Big Bend region and along Rio Grande Valley extending northward into the Southern Plains. This ridge will be the dominant feature through this short-term period and beyond, driving temperatures even higher on Friday with mid 90s expected across the vast majority of the region. Overnight low temperatures will largely range through the lower to mid 70s aside from some isolated upper 60s across a few of our northernmost locations.
Showers and thunderstorms could develop over the higher terrain, triggered by afternoon heating on Friday. Some showers or storms could spread into the lowlands, but rainfall accumulations are not expected to be significant. A warming trend will continue Friday with lowland temperatures reaching the lower 90, ranging into the lower 80s central mountains, and into the upper 60s northeast mountains. The pattern to start this weekend will feature a weakening upper- level low across northern New England, a ridge over the Ohio Valley, and another low pressure system developing in the Rockies.
Light and variable winds will become light N/NW toward morning with min temps in the low to mid 70s.
high pressure will build overhead with clouds diminishing in the morning leading to dry conditions.
632 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024 (Rest of today through Friday) Surface and upper level south central and southeastern CONUS based ridging influences are here to stay across mid state region not only through Friday, but through entire weekend. Current regional temperature trends continue to supported previously forecasted high temperature values as as upper level ridging compression clamps down on mid state region resulting in warming temperates with highs this afternoon still looking to range on the seasonally warm side upper 80s to lower 90s, mid 80s Cumberland Plateau Region. Highs on Friday will even be warmer, ranging low to mid 90s, mid 80s to around 90 for locations just west of and across Cumberland Plateau Region. (Friday Night through next Thursday) As mentioned above, ridging will continue to be dominant weather player through weekend.
750 PM EDT Thu Sep 19 2024 (Through Friday) High pressure gradually builds into the region as the flow aloft becomes increasingly anticyclonic.
- Cooler and windy conditions are expected Saturday, with peak wind gusts reaching over 35 mph in areas west of the James River Valley.
(Today through Saturday) Key Messages: - Moderate to major heat risk today Water vapor imagery this morning reveals upper level ridging anchored across the region. A similar story is in store on Saturday as the upper ridge remains in control.
Showers and thunderstorms could develop over the higher terrain, triggered by afternoon heating on Friday. Some showers or storms could spread into the lowlands, but rainfall accumulations are not expected to be significant. A warming trend will continue Friday with lowland temperatures reaching the lower 90, ranging into the lower 80s central mountains, and into the upper 60s northeast mountains. The pattern to start this weekend will feature a weakening upper- level low across northern New England, a ridge over the Ohio Valley, and another low pressure system developing in the Rockies. The summer- like heat will be back in full force with highs expected to reach the lower 90s across the lowlands. The more comfortable spots will be in the higher mountain ridges, where afternoon temperatures will be in the 70s-80s.
VCSH included for MCO southward after 18Z, though the highest confidence in seeing convection near terminals will be along the Treasure Coast after around 16Z. Light and variable winds will become light N/NW toward morning with min temps in the low to mid 70s.
1108 PM MDT Thu Sep 19 2024 -Warm Friday with much cooler and breezy conditions this weekend -Elevated fire weather conditions continue through Saturday with critical conditions possible in southwest areas Friday -Mainly dry conditions the next several days Mean western NOAM trough will progress east through the weekend, bringing a warm day Friday, with cool and breezy conds this weekend. Lee-side trough will get kicked east Friday as the mean upper trough shifts east. Expect much warmer conds Friday as the thermal ridge shifts over the region with breezy conds over the far SW where deeply mixed WSW flow will become established. Upper trough will shift east Friday night, supporting a cold front into the region.
Excerpt of previous discussion Models continue to depict a back door cold front backing into our area from the east on Friday, and some spot showers are possible with this feature. Cooler northeast flow will keep daytime high temperatures around the mid 70s to near 80.
831 PM PDT Thu Sep 19 2024 A low pressure system moving southward into the region will bring cooler and showery weather by into Friday. There is a chance for rain showers across most of the region, with a chance for thunderstorms from the Santa Ana mountains to the High Desert. Weak high pressure will then build into the region brining near to slightly above average temperatures with night/morning low clouds near the coast. WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO At 8 PM the upper level low pressure system was currently off the coast of Point Conception. As the low moves closer to SoCal, expect light showers and marine layer drizzle across for areas west of the mountains to begin late tonight, highest confidence over San Diego County.
1202 AM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024 (This evening through Saturday) A ridge of high pressure in the central and southern Plains will build in our direction during the near term. Under the ridge, summer temperatures are expected, with above average readings in the forecast the next couple of days. As the ridge becomes dominant, large scale troughing will be noted over the western United States. On the leading edge of the troughing, a cold front will try to push toward Arkansas from the northwest tonight/Friday, but will not make it into the state. On the heels of the front, yet another cold front will head this way as the period ends.
(Today and tonight) Expect hot and humid conditions today as a strong upper level high pressure ridge(current 500 MB temperatures around 0 deg C) remains over the Southern Plains.
- A cold front will move through the Northland Saturday and a few strong storms will be possible Saturday afternoon and early evening over mainly northwest Wisconsin. Highs Saturday will range from the lower seventies over western areas to around eighty over northwest Wisconsin.
The onshore flow will keep the beaches cooler today with temps peaking around the low/mid 80s while inland areas push into the upper 80s. pdf Breezy northeasterly flow through the weekend as high pressure continues to build over the region.
The main trough along the Atlantic Coast will continue to pull slowly eastward through tonight. The pattern transitions to one of transient ridging starting tonight. --------------------------------------------------------------------- Friday will feature dry weather and quite warm temperatures as transient ridging passes over the region.
429 AM EDT Fri Sep 20 2024 (Today through Saturday) High pressure and dry conditions will persist through the short term period.
332 AM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024 Today and Tonight: The near term forecast is one of persistence as ridging surface and aloft will remain dominant through tonight. This will help result in dry weather and warmer than normal temperatures. This high will change very little through tonight and maintain a dry northerly flow aloft over our CWA. Together these features will help temperatures top out warmer than normal again this afternoon; in the lower 90s.
A few showers will be possible well offshore tonight as a trough/weak front moves southward. pdf Cold front will sink to the south Tonight, with high pressure building from the north. (Friday through Saturday night) High pressure will build from the north northeast this period. A weak inverted trough will develop over the coastal waters. A few showers and storms will be possible each day due to diurnal instability and convergence associated with inverted trough.
Mid level ridge axis in place across the area this morning will begin to flatten out this afternoon as mid level energy rides over the top of it. H5 ridge in place to start the period will quickly propagate eastward through the end of the weekend. How quickly this ridge shifts eastward will be important to monitor because in its wake, a robust, elongated trough will begin to carve its way through the Midwest.
- Very warm and rather humid today and Saturday with highs in the upper 80s to around 90 with afternoon heat indices in the low to mid 90s.
Meanwhile, high pressure begins to build into the region from the north and west giving our region a dry weekend. Drier conditions are expected later today with less cloud cover as deep subsidence increases from the west and high pressure dominates at the sfc. There may be some limited convective activity across the mtns due to ridge top convergence, but coverage of precip will be low-end due to the aforementioned subs and midlevel warming.
Temperatures are expected to climb rapidly into the day today with upper ridging and surface southerly flow under high pressure. --------------------------------------------------------------------- Friday will feature dry weather and quite warm temperatures as transient ridging passes over the region.
Discussion: We will remain on the eastern side of the upper ridge that is centered to our southwest for the short term period.
(Today and tonight) Current water vapor imagery depicts the upper level ridge and dome of high pressure positioned over southwestern Texas. By this afternoon the upper level ridge is expected to track southeastward as the upper level low off the southern CA coast begins to track into the desert southwest region this afternoon. In addition, mid-level Pacific moisture wrapping around the center of the high pressure system will also creep into portions of the far southwestern Texas Panhandle this afternoon.
- A weak cold front moves through Friday evening, bringing a cool north wind shift. Of note is Jackson Valley, where mid-level clouds have kept the eroding sunshine from breaking up the lower clouds. A weak cold front pushes through in the evening. This shifts winds to the north and northeast, with a slight breeze and cooler temperatures. The cold front leaves Saturday cooler, with highs in the 60s. This low also brings a tighter pressure gradient, so gusty winds across the Wind Corridor of 20 to 35 mph. Models still track this low southeast of the CWA, so its impacts will be minimal to none through the weekend -cooler temperatures and isolated (20%) rain chances for southern areas.
352 AM EDT Fri Sep 20 2024 A backdoor cold front will bring a slim chance for some light rain showers today. We are on the subsident side of low pressure, but as high pressure builds south of Newfoundland towards Quebec Province, a backdoor front will slide southwest. Highs will start to come down as cooler air begins to infiltrate. On Saturday, a little wrap around moisture from coastal low pressure near the 40 N, 70 W benchmark may rotate into southern Vermont and parts of the Adirondacks.
1210 AM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024 (This evening through Friday) Water vapor channel imagery highlights a broad upper ridge centered over northern Mexico gradually expanding northward early this afternoon, resulting in a continued lack of any features of interest aloft over West Texas. We still expect convective growth today to be constrained by a dramatic increase in mid and upper level subsidence associated with the expansion of aforementioned ridging aloft. On Friday, the closed upper low off the CA coast will begin to accelerate eastward with the upper ridge progged to contract southeastward compared to today. Given only very modest height falls on Friday, temperatures will be similar to today with highs ranging from the low 90s near the TX/NM state line to the low 100s across the far SE TX Panhandle.